Circulation Type Classifications and their nexus to Van Bebber's storm track Vb

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hofstätter, M.; Chimani, B.

2012-04-01

Circulation Type Classifications (CTCs) are tools to identify repetitive and predominantly stationary patterns of the atmospheric circulation over a certain area, with the purpose to enable the recognition of specific characteristics in surface climate variables. On the other hand storm tracks can be used to identify similar types of synoptic events from a non-stationary, kinematic perspective. Such a storm track classification for Europe has been done in the late 19th century by Van Bebber (1882, 1891), from which the famous type Vb and Vc/d remained up to the present day because of to their association with major flooding events like in August 2002 in Europe. In this work a systematic tracking procedure has been developed, to determine storm track types and their characteristics especially for the Eastern Alpine Region in the period 1961-2002, using ERA40 and ERAinterim reanalysis. The focus thereby is on cyclone tracks of type V as suggested by van Bebber and congeneric types. This new catalogue is used as a reference to verify the hypothesis of a certain coherence of storm track Vb with certain circulation types (e.g. Fricke and Kaminski, 2002). Selected objective and subjective classification schemes from the COST733 action (http://cost733.met.no/, Phillip et al. 2010) are used therefore, as well as the manual classification from ZAMG (Lauscher 1972 and 1985), in which storm track Vb has been classified explicitly on a daily base since 1948. The latter scheme should prove itself as a valuable and unique data source in that issue. Results show that not less than 146 storm tracks are identified as Vb between 1961 and 2002, whereas only three events could be found from literature, pointing to big subjectivity and preconception in the issue of Vb storm tracks. The annual number of Vb storm tracks do not show any significant trend over the last 42 years, but large variations from year to year. Circulation type classification CAP27 (Cluster Analysis of Principal Components) is the best performing, fully objective scheme tested herein, showing the power to discriminate Vb events. Most of the other fully objective schemes do by far not perform as well. Largest skill in that issue can be seen from the subjective/manual CTCs, proving themselves to enhance relevant synoptic phenomena instead of emphasizing mathematic criteria in the classification. The hypothesis of Fricke and Kaminsky can definitely be supported by this work: Vb storm tracks are included in one or the other stationary circulation pattern, but to which extent depends on the specific characteristics of the CTC in question.

Wave Height and Water Level Variability on Lakes Michigan and St Clair

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

Observations: http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/sose/glwx_activity.html 4. NASA Atlas of Extratropical Storm Tracks: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/stormtracks...term meteorological, ice, wave, and water level measurements. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Base flood elevation Coastal flood Extratropical storms Great...Box 1027 Detroit, MI 48231-1027 ERDC/CHL TR-12-23 ii Abstract The Great Lakes are subject to coastal flooding as a result of severe storms

The probability of occurrence of high-loss windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Massey, Neil

2016-04-01

Windstorms are one of the largest meteorological risks to life and property in Europe. High - loss windstorms, in terms of insured losses, are a result of not only the windspeed of the storm but also the position and track of the storm. The two highest loss storms on record, Daria (1990) and Lothar (1999) caused so much damage because they tracked across highly populated areas of Europe. Although the frequency and intensity of high - loss wind storms in the observed record is known, there are not enough samples, due to the short observed record, to truly know the distribution of the frequency and intensity of windstorms over Europe and, by extension, the distribution of losses which could occur if the atmosphere had been in a different state due to the internal variability of the atmosphere. Risk and loss modelling exercises carried out by and for the reinsurance industry have typically stochastically perturbed the historical record of high - loss windstorms to produce distributions of potential windstorms with greater sample sizes than the observations. This poster presents a new method of generating many samples of potential windstorms and analyses the frequency of occurrence, intensity and potential losses of these windstorms. The large ensemble regional climate modelling project weather@home is used to generate many regional climate model representations (800 per year) of the weather over Europe between 1985 and 2010. The regional climate model is driven at the boundaries by a free running global climate model and so each ensemble member represents a potential state of the atmosphere, rather than an observed state. The winter storm season of October to March is analysed by applying an objective cyclone identification and tracking algorithm to each ensemble member. From the resulting tracks, the windspeed within a 1000km radius of the cyclone centre is extracted and the maximum windspeed over a 72 hour period is derived as the storm windspeed footprint. This footprint is fed into a population based loss model to estimate the losses for the storm. Additionally the same analysis is performed on data from the same regional climate model, driven at the boundaries by ERA - Interim. This allows the tracks and losses of the storms in the observed record to be recovered using the same tracking method and loss model. A storm track matching function is applied to the storm tracks in the large ensemble and so analogues of the observed storms can be recovered. The frequency of occurrence of the high - loss storms in the large ensemble can then be determined, and used as a proxy for the frequency of occurrence in the observations.

Dynamical structure and risk assessment of 20th Century Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varino, Filipa; Philippe, Arbogast; Bruno, Joly; Gwendal, Rivière; Marie-Laure, Fandeur; Henry, Bovy; Jean-Baptiste, Granier; Mitchell-Wallace, Kirsten

2017-04-01

Windstorms play an important role in weather variability over western Europe. Strong winds associated with fronts and sting jets can lead to several social and economic damages. However, in addition to wind intensity, the displacement speed of the storm, its area and position are also important factors in determining loss. In this study we focus on windstorms associated with the highest damages of the 20th century, and we analyse whether the dynamical structure of the storm is related to its impact. First, we apply an extra-tropical storm tracking algorithm to the ECMWF ERA-20C reanalysis that covers the whole twentieth century and for the whole Northern Hemisphere. Secondly, using the same data, we compute the 3-hourly Loss and Meteorological index for 18 different European countries as in Pinto et al. (2012) with a 25km grid resolution. Thirdly, we develop a High-Loss Tracking Method that matches information from the Loss Index results and the trajectories tracked to systematically associate damages over a particular country to a particular storm. Such a combination provides information on the typical life cycle of storms that create strong damages over a particular country. Finally, only storms hitting France are considered. More than 1500 storms are detected over the whole period and their evolution is analyzed by performing various composites depending on their position relative to the jet stream and their region of impact.

Jet and storm track variability and change: adiabatic QG zonal averages and beyond... (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinson, W. A.

2013-12-01

The zonally averaged structures of extratropical jets and stormtracks, their slow variations, and their responses to climate change are all tightly constrained on the one hand by thermal wind balance and the necessary application of eddy torques to produce zonally averaged meridional motion, and, on the other hand, by the necessity that eddies propagate upshear to extract energy from the mean flow. Combining these constraints with the well developed theory of linear Rossby-wave propagation on zonally symmetric basic states has led to a large and growing number of plausible mechanisms to explain observed and modeled jet/storm track variability and responses to climate change and idealized forcing. Hidden within zonal averages is the reality that most baroclinic eddy activity is destroyed at the same latitude at which is generated: from one end to another of the fixed stormtracks in the Northern Hemisphere and baroclinic wave packets in the Southern Hemisphere. Ignored within adiabatic QG theory is the reality that baroclinic eddies gain significant energy from latent heating that involves sub-syntopic scale structures and dynamics. Here we use results from high-resolution regional and global simulations of the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks to explore the importance of non-zonal and diabatic dynamics in influencing jet change and variability and their influences on the much-studied zonal means.

Intercomparison of mid latitude storm diagnostics (IMILAST)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neu, U.

2009-04-01

Diagnostics of the observed and projection of the future changes of extratropical storms are a key issue e.g. for insurance companies, risk management and adaptation planning. Storm-associated damages are amongst the highest losses due to natural disasters in the mid-latitudes. Therefore the knowledge of the future variability and change in extratropical cyclone frequency, intensity and track locations is crucial for the strategic planning and minimization of the disaster impacts. Future changes in the total number of storms might be small but major signals could occur in the characteristics of cyclone life cycle such as intensity, life time, track locations. The quantification of such trends is not independent from the methodologies for storm track detection applied to observational data and models. Comparison of differences in cyclone characteristics obtained using different methods from a single data set may be as large as or even exceed the differences between the results derived from different data sets using a single methodology. Even more, the metrics used become particularly sensitive, resulting in the fact that scientific studies may find seemingly contradictory results based on the same datasets. For users of storm track analyses and projections the results are very difficult to interprete. Thus, it would be very helpful if the research community would provide information in a kind of "handbook" which contains definitions and a description of the available different identification and tracking schemes as well as of the parameters used for the quantification of cyclone activity. It cannot be expected that there is an optimum or standard scheme that fulfills all needs. Rather, a proper knowledge about advantages and restrictions of different schemes must be obtained to be able to provide a synthesis of results rather than puzzling the scientific and the general public with apparently contradicing statements. The project IMILAST aims at providing a systematic intercomparison of different methodologies and a comprehensive assessment of all types of uncertainties inherent in the mid-latitudinal storm tracking by comparing different methodologies with respect to data of different resolution (time and space) and limited areas, for both cyclone identification and cyclone tracking respectively.

Storm track response to climate change: Insights from simulations using an idealized dry GCM.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbengue, Cheikh; Schneider, Tapio

2013-04-01

The midlatitude storm tracks, where the most intense extratropical cyclones are found, are an important fixture in the general circulation. They are instrumental in balancing the Earth's heat, momentum, and moisture budgets and are responsible for the weather and climatic patterns over large regions of the Earth's surface. As a result, the midlatitude storm tracks are the subject of a considerable amount of scientific research to understand their response to global warming. This has produced the robust result showing that the storm tracks migrate poleward with global warming. However, the dynamical mechanisms responsible for this migration remain unclear. Our work seeks to broaden understanding of the dynamical mechanisms responsible for storm track migration. Competing mechanisms present in the comprehensive climate models often used to study storm track dynamics make it difficult to determine the primary mechanisms responsible for storm track migration. We are thus prompted to study storm track dynamics from a simplified and idealized framework, which enables the decoupling of mean temperature effects from the effects of static stability and of tropical from extratropical effects. Using a statistically zonally symmetric, dry general circulation model (GCM), we conduct a series of numerical simulations to help understand the storm track response to global mean temperatures and to the tropical convective static stability, which we can vary independently. We define storm tracks as regions of zonally and temporally averaged maxima of barotropic eddy kinetic energy (EKE). This storm track definition also allows us to use previously found scalings between the magnitude of bulk measures of mean available potential energy (MAPE) and EKE, to decompose MAPE, and to obtain some mechanistic understanding of the storm track response in our simulations. These simulations provide several insights, which enable us to extend upon existing theories on the mechanisms driving the poleward migration of the storm tracks. We demonstrate a poleward migration of the midlatitude storm tracks in dry atmospheres with fixed pole-equator temperature contrast and increasing radiative equilibrium mean temperature, without changes in convective static stability. We also show scalings between the location of maxima of surface MAPE and of barotropic EKE. In the simulations where we independently vary tropical convective static stability, we find a marked poleward migration of the storm tracks. However, our decomposition shows that meridional temperature gradients, and not static stability, determine the location and the intensity of the storm tracks. This suggests that although the storm tracks are sensitive to tropical convective static stability, it influences them indirectly. Furthermore, our simulations show that the storm tracks generally migrate in tandem with the terminus of the Hadley cell. Therefore, we hypothesize that it is possible that the Hadley cell provides the tropical-extratropical communication necessary to generate the storm track response to tropical convective static stability we observe in the simulations. The results contained herein could be used to supplement ongoing storm track research in moist atmospheres using comparatively more comprehensive GCMs to understand storm track dynamics in earth-like environments.

A discussion of the links between solar variability and high-storm-surge events in Venice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriopedro, David; GarcíA-Herrera, Ricardo; Lionello, Piero; Pino, Cosimo

2010-07-01

This study explores the long-term frequency variability of high-surge events (HSEs) in the North Adriatic, the so-called acqua alta, which, particularly during autumn, cause flooding of the historical city center of Venice. The period 1948-2008, when hourly observations of sea level are available, is considered. The frequency of HSEs is correlated with the 11 year solar cycle, solar maxima being associated with a significant increase in the October-November-December HSE frequency. The seasonal geopotential height pattern at 1000 hPa (storm surge pattern; SSP) associated with the increased frequency of HSEs is identified for the whole time period and found to be similar to the positive phase of the main variability mode of the regional atmospheric circulation (empirical orthogonal function 1; EOF1). However, further analysis indicates that solar activity modulates the spatial patterns of the atmospheric circulation (EOF) and the favorable conditions for HSE occurrence (SSP). Under solar maxima, the occurrence of HSEs is enhanced by the main mode of regional atmospheric variability, namely, a large-scale wave train pattern that is symptomatic of storm track paths over northern Europe. Solar minima reveal a substantially different and less robust SSP, consisting of a meridionally oriented dipole with a preferred southward path of storm track activity, which is not associated with any dominant mode of atmospheric variability during low-solar periods. It is concluded that solar activity plays an indirect role in the frequency of HSEs by modulating the spatial patterns of the main modes of atmospheric regional variability, the favorable patterns for HSE occurrence, and their mutual relationships, so that constructive interaction between them is enhanced during solar maxima and inhibited in solar minima.

Interannual Modulation of Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks by the QBO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Jiabao; Kim, Hye-Mi; Chang, Edmund K. M.

2018-03-01

Storm tracks, defined as the preferred regions of extratropical synoptic-scale disturbances, have remarkable impacts on global weather and climate systems. Causes of interannual storm track variation have been investigated mostly from a troposphere perspective. As shown in this study, Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks are significantly modulated by the tropical stratosphere through the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). The North Pacific storm track shifts poleward during the easterly QBO winters associated with a dipole change in the eddy refraction and baroclinicity. The North Atlantic storm track varies vertically with a downward shrinking (upward expansion) in easterly (westerly) QBO winters associated with the change of the tropopause height. These results not only fill the knowledge gap of QBO-storm track relationship but also suggest a potential route to improve the seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities owing to the high predictability of the QBO.

North Atlantic storm track variability and its association to the North Atlantic oscillation and climate variability of northern Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rogers, J.C.

The primary mode of North Atlantic track variability is identified using rotated principal component analysis (RPCA) on monthly fields of root-mean-squares of daily high-pass filtered (2-8-day periods) sea level pressures (SLP) for winters (December-February) 1900-92. It is examined in terms of its association with (1) monthly mean SLP fields, (2) regional low-frequency teleconnections, and (3) the seesaw in winter temperatures between Greenland and northern Europe. 32 refs., 9 figs.

Midlatitude atmospheric circulation responses under 1.5 and 2.0 °C warming and implications for regional impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Camille; Michel, Clio; Seland Graff, Lise; Bethke, Ingo; Zappa, Giuseppe; Bracegirdle, Thomas J.; Fischer, Erich; Harvey, Ben J.; Iversen, Trond; King, Martin P.; Krishnan, Harinarayan; Lierhammer, Ludwig; Mitchell, Daniel; Scinocca, John; Shiogama, Hideo; Stone, Dáithí A.; Wettstein, Justin J.

2018-04-01

This study investigates the global response of the midlatitude atmospheric circulation to 1.5 and 2.0 °C of warming using the HAPPI (Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts) ensemble, with a focus on the winter season. Characterising and understanding this response is critical for accurately assessing the near-term regional impacts of climate change and the benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, as advocated by the Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The HAPPI experimental design allows an assessment of uncertainty in the circulation response due to model dependence and internal variability. Internal variability is found to dominate the multi-model mean response of the jet streams, storm tracks, and stationary waves across most of the midlatitudes; larger signals in these features are mostly consistent with those seen in more strongly forced warming scenarios. Signals that emerge in the 1.5 °C experiment are a weakening of storm activity over North America, an inland shift of the North American stationary ridge, an equatorward shift of the North Pacific jet exit, and an equatorward intensification of the South Pacific jet. Signals that emerge under an additional 0.5 °C of warming include a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet exit, an eastward extension of the North Atlantic storm track, and an intensification on the flanks of the Southern Hemisphere storm track. Case studies explore the implications of these circulation responses for precipitation impacts in the Mediterranean, in western Europe, and on the North American west coast, paying particular attention to possible outcomes at the tails of the response distributions. For example, the projected weakening of the Mediterranean storm track emerges in the 2 °C warmer world, with exceptionally dry decades becoming 5 times more likely.

Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pantillon, Florian; Knippertz, Peter; Corsmeier, Ulrich

2017-10-01

New insights into the synoptic-scale predictability of 25 severe European winter storms of the 1995-2015 period are obtained using the homogeneous ensemble reforecast dataset from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The predictability of the storms is assessed with different metrics including (a) the track and intensity to investigate the storms' dynamics and (b) the Storm Severity Index to estimate the impact of the associated wind gusts. The storms are well predicted by the whole ensemble up to 2-4 days ahead. At longer lead times, the number of members predicting the observed storms decreases and the ensemble average is not clearly defined for the track and intensity. The Extreme Forecast Index and Shift of Tails are therefore computed from the deviation of the ensemble from the model climate. Based on these indices, the model has some skill in forecasting the area covered by extreme wind gusts up to 10 days, which indicates a clear potential for early warnings. However, large variability is found between the individual storms. The poor predictability of outliers appears related to their physical characteristics such as explosive intensification or small size. Longer datasets with more cases would be needed to further substantiate these points.

The Energy Cascade Associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castanheira, J. M.; Marques, C. A. F.

2017-12-01

The North Atlantic Oscillation or Arctic Oscillation (NAO/AO), in a more hemispheric expression, is the dominant mode of variability of the extratropical atmospheric circulation. In the literature which analyses the association of low frequency variability of the NAO/AO with other climate variables, it is very common to find the idea of circulation and climate impacts of the NAO/AO. It is usually suggested that the NAO influences the position of North Atlantic storm tracks and the related transport of heat and moisture. However, in spite of the long time since the NAO variability mode was uncovered (Walker and Bliss, 1932), its underlying dynamical mechanisms are not well understood yet. In fact, it is not yet consensual that the NAO influences the position of the storm tracks, being possible that the relationship is in the opposite way with the storm track activity influencing de NAO. In this communication we will present an analysis of anomalies of the energy cascade associated with the NAO. A detailed version of the Lorenz energy cycle, which decomposes the energy flows into baroclinic and barotropic terms and into zonal mean and eddy components, was applied to the 6-hourly ERA-I reanalysis for the period of 1979 to 2016. The obtained results show that the positive NAO phase is preceded by an significant increase of synoptic baroclinic eddy activity. The eddy available potential energy is converted into kinetic energy and transferred to barotropic synoptic eddies. Then, the kinetic energy is transferred upscale into the barotropic planetary waves, which reproduce the NAO pattern. Therefore, we conclude that the synoptic baroclinic eddy activity forces the NAO variability. No clear signal was found for a modulating role of the NAO in the baroclinic eddy activity.

Synoptic Storms in the North Atlantic in the Atmospheric Reanalysis and Scatterometer-Based Wind Products

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dukhovskoy, D. S.; Bourassa, M. A.

2016-12-01

The study compares and analyses the characteristics of synoptic storms in the Subpolar North Atlantic over the time period from 2000 through 2009 derived from reanalysis data sets and scatterometer-based gridded wind products. The analysis is performed for ocean 10-m winds derived from the following wind data sets: NCEP/DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (NCEPR2), NCAR/CFSR, Arctic System Reanalysis (ASR) version 1, Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) wind product versions 1.1 and recently released version 2.0 prepared by the Remote Sensing Systems, and QuikSCAT. A cyclone tracking algorithm employed in this study for storm identification is based on average vorticity fields derived from the wind data. The study discusses storm characteristics such as storm counts, trajectories, intensity, integrated kinetic energy, spatial scale. Interannal variability of these characteristics in the data sets is compared. The analyses demonstrates general agreement among the wind data products on the characteristics of the storms, their spatial distribution and trajectories. On average, the NCEPR2 storms are more energetic mostly due to large spatial scales and stronger winds. There is noticeable interannual variability in the storm characteristics, yet no obvious trend in storms is observed in the data sets.

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change

PubMed Central

O’Gorman, Paul A.

2010-01-01

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past. PMID:20974916

Understanding the varied response of the extratropical storm tracks to climate change.

PubMed

O'Gorman, Paul A

2010-11-09

Transient eddies in the extratropical storm tracks are a primary mechanism for the transport of momentum, energy, and water in the atmosphere, and as such are a major component of the climate system. Changes in the extratropical storm tracks under global warming would impact these transports, the ocean circulation and carbon cycle, and society through changing weather patterns. I show that the southern storm track intensifies in the multimodel mean of simulations of 21st century climate change, and that the seasonal cycle of storm-track intensity increases in amplitude in both hemispheres. I use observations of the present-day seasonal cycle to confirm the relationship between storm-track intensity and the mean available potential energy of the atmosphere, and show how this quantitative relationship can be used to account for much of the varied response in storm-track intensity to global warming, including substantially different responses in simulations with different climate models. The results suggest that storm-track intensity is not related in a simple way to global-mean surface temperature, so that, for example, a stronger southern storm track in response to present-day global warming does not imply it was also stronger in hothouse climates of the past.

Sources of Wind Variability at a Single Station in Complex Terrain During Tropical Cyclone Passage

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-01

Mesoscale Prediction System CPA Closest point of approach ET Extratropical transition FNMOC Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center...forecasts. However, 2 the TC forecast tracks and warnings they issue necessarily focus on the large-scale structure of the storm , and are not...winds at one station. Also, this technique is a storm - centered forecast and even if the grid spacing is on order of one kilometer, it is unlikely

Insights into mid-latitude storm track dynamics from simulations with an idealized dry GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbengue, C. O.; Schneider, T.

2012-12-01

The mid-latitude storm tracks play an important role in balancing the earth's heat and momentum budget. They have a significant human impact through precipitation and adverse weather conditions; thus, the storm track response to changing climatic conditions is of great interest. In this study, we investigate the climatological response of the mid-latitude storm tracks to varying mean global temperature and convective static stability, using an idealized dry GCM. We demonstrate storm track migration in response to changes in global-mean surface temperatures without modifying the surface pole-equator temperature contrast or including moisture-related effects. The results help interpret the findings of previous global warming studies in which the mid-latitude storm tracks migrate poleward with increasing mean global temperatures. In our study, the storm track position is found to be particularly sensitive to changes in tropical static stability and tropopause height and their effect on the Hadley circulation. The mechanisms driving the dynamics of the mid-latitude storm tracks have been elusive. However, making use of the simplified framework employed in this study, which lends itself to dynamical decompositions, we have been able to improve upon some existing theories on storm track dynamics in dry atmospheres, as well as make additional observations. Previous studies into dry atmospheric dynamics have shown a linear scaling between eddy kinetic energy, a robust measure of the level of storminess, and the mean available potential energy (MAPE). This scaling is utilized in a decomposition that shows that the dominant quantity in storm track dynamics is the meridional gradient of the potential temperature—a measure of baroclinicity. This observation leads us to look for dynamical mechanisms that, on average, dictate the location of regions of elevated baroclinicity. Some credible explanations include the effects on mid-latitude isentropic slopes through a raising or lowering of the tropical tropopause, and effects of a migrating terminus of the Hadley cell. In a simulation where we only vary the convective lapse rate, the decomposition reinforces the meridional temperature gradient as the major determinant of the location of the maximum of MAPE and, by extension, the location of the storm tracks. This is surprising considering that static stability constitutes one of the components of the decomposition. This revelation suggests that static stability plays an indirect role in storm track dynamics through temperature gradients, which is plausible since static stability can affect temperature gradients through its interaction with isentropic slopes. Furthermore, upper tropospheric temperature gradients can be modified by the convective lapse rate through its effect on the depth of the troposphere. The results contained herein can be used to supplement ongoing storm track work in moist atmospheres, using more comprehensive GCMs to understand storm track dynamics in an earth-like environment.

Processes of physical change to the seabed and bivalve recruitment over a 10-year period following experimental hydraulic clam dredging on Banquereau, Scotian Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilkinson, K.; King, E. L.; Li, M. Z.; Roddick, D.; Kenchington, E.; Han, G.

2015-01-01

A previous study on the effects of experimental hydraulic clam dredging on seabed habitat and commercial bivalve populations revealed a lack of recovery after a 3-year post-dredging period (1998-2001) on a deep (65-75 m) offshore sandy bank on the Scotian Shelf, Canada. Follow-up sidescan sonar surveys were carried out 5 and 10 years after dredging (2003, 2008) in order to identify long-term processes of seabed recovery. Grab sampling was carried out 10 years after dredging to identify post-dredging commercial bivalve recruitment. Changes in the seafloor, including dredge tracks, were documented with a series of 7 sidescan sonar surveys between 1998 and 2008. A sediment mobility model was constructed based on modeled tidal current and hindcast wave data over this time period to quantify natural seabed disturbance and interpret changes to the dredge tracks mapped by sidescan sonar surveys. The model indicated that tidal currents had minimal effect on sediment mobilization. The main driving force associated with re-working of surficial sediments as evidenced by deterioration of dredge tracks in sonograms was annual fall/winter storms. While the annual frequency of storms and associated wave heights was variable, the observations and sediment mobility calculations suggest that the most influential variable is the magnitude of individual large storms, specifically storms with a significant wave height of ∼11 m. These storms are capable of generating mobile sediment layers of 20-30 cm thickness, equivalent to the dredge blade cutting depth. It appears that, with minor exceptions, sediment properties have returned to pre-dredging conditions 10 years after dredging in this habitat. Based on known age-length relationships, the four commercial bivalve species showed very low recruitment at the experimental site over the 10-year post-dredging period. However, this is unlikely due to a dredging effect since a similar pattern was observed in non-dredged areas.

High storm surge events in Venice and the 11-yr solar cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barriopedro, David; García-Herrera, Ricardo; Lionello, Piero; Pino, Cosimo

2010-05-01

In the last years the Venice lagoon has received much attention as a case of coastal vulnerability, mainly because of relative sea level rise and increase frequency of storm surge events, the so-called "aqua alta", which, particularly during autumn, cause the flooding of the Venice historical city center. Long-term fluctuations in solar activity and large-scale climate patterns have been suggested as feasible factors of flooding variability. This study explores the long-term frequency variability of High Surge Events (HSE) in Venice for the period 1948-2008 and its modulation by the 11-yr solar cycle. A significant decadal variability in the frequency of HSE is found in good correspondence with the 11-yr cycle, solar maxima being associated to a significant increase of the October-November-December HSE frequency. A Storm Surge Pattern (SSP), i.e. the seasonal 1000 hPa height pattern associated to increased frequency of HSE, is identified and found similar to the positive phase of the main variability mode of the regional atmospheric circulation (EOF1). However, further analyses indicate that the increase of HSE in solar maxima cannot be simply explained by a higher recurrence of positive EOF1 phases during high solar years. It rather seems that solar activity modulates the spatial patterns of the atmospheric circulation (EOF) and the favorable conditions for HSE occurrence (SSP). Thus, under solar maxima, the occurrence of HSE is enhanced by the EOF1, namely a large-scale wave train pattern that is symptomatic of storm track paths over northern Europe. Solar minima reveal a substantially different and less robust SSP, consisting of a meridionally oriented dipole with a preferred southward path of storm track activity, which is not associated to any EOF during low solar periods. It is concluded that solar activity plays an indirect role in the frequency of HSE by modulating the spatial patterns of the main modes of atmospheric regional variability, the favorable patterns for HSE occurrence and their mutual relationships, so that constructive interaction between them is enhanced during solar maxima and inhibited in solar minima.

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Jennifer; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Henderson, Naomi; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Kumar, Arun; LaRow, Timothy E.; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Roberts, Malcolm J.; Scoccimarro, Enrico; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Wang, Hui; Wehner, Michael F.; Zhao, Ming

2017-09-01

Western North Pacific tropical cyclone (TC) model tracks are analyzed in two large multimodel ensembles, spanning a large variety of models and multiple future climate scenarios. Two methodologies are used to synthesize the properties of TC tracks in this large data set: cluster analysis and mass moment ellipses. First, the models' TC tracks are compared to observed TC tracks' characteristics, and a subset of the models is chosen for analysis, based on the tracks' similarity to observations and sample size. Potential changes in track types in a warming climate are identified by comparing the kernel smoothed probability distributions of various track variables in historical and future scenarios using a Kolmogorov-Smirnov significance test. Two track changes are identified. The first is a statistically significant increase in the north-south expansion, which can also be viewed as a poleward shift, as TC tracks are prevented from expanding equatorward due to the weak Coriolis force near the equator. The second change is an eastward shift in the storm tracks that occur near the central Pacific in one of the multimodel ensembles, indicating a possible increase in the occurrence of storms near Hawaii in a warming climate. The dependence of the results on which model and future scenario are considered emphasizes the necessity of including multiple models and scenarios when considering future changes in TC characteristics.

Statistical Analysis of Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the North Atlantic

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

Figure 6. Official tracks of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. Storms are listed in the top-right box with the symbols and track color explained in...Atlantic hurricane season. Storms are listed in the top-right box with the symbols and track color explained in the legend in the bottom-right box (From...NHC 2012l). ...................................................13 Figure 8. Official tracks of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Storms are listed

Atmosphere surface storm track response to resolved ocean mesoscale in two sets of global climate model experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, R. Justin; Msadek, Rym; Kwon, Young-Oh; Booth, James F.; Zarzycki, Colin

2018-05-01

It has been hypothesized that the ocean mesoscale (particularly ocean fronts) can affect the strength and location of the overlying extratropical atmospheric storm track. In this paper, we examine whether resolving ocean fronts in global climate models indeed leads to significant improvement in the simulated storm track, defined using low level meridional wind. Two main sets of experiments are used: (i) global climate model Community Earth System Model version 1 with non-eddy-resolving standard resolution or with ocean eddy-resolving resolution, and (ii) the same but with the GFDL Climate Model version 2. In case (i), it is found that higher ocean resolution leads to a reduction of a very warm sea surface temperature (SST) bias at the east coasts of the U.S. and Japan seen in standard resolution models. This in turn leads to a reduction of storm track strength near the coastlines, by up to 20%, and a better location of the storm track maxima, over the western boundary currents as observed. In case (ii), the change in absolute SST bias in these regions is less notable, and there are modest (10% or less) increases in surface storm track, and smaller changes in the free troposphere. In contrast, in the southern Indian Ocean, case (ii) shows most sensitivity to ocean resolution, and this coincides with a larger change in mean SST as ocean resolution is changed. Where the ocean resolution does make a difference, it consistently brings the storm track closer in appearance to that seen in ERA-Interim Reanalysis data. Overall, for the range of ocean model resolutions used here (1° versus 0.1°) we find that the differences in SST gradient have a small effect on the storm track strength whilst changes in absolute SST between experiments can have a larger effect. The latter affects the land-sea contrast, air-sea stability, surface latent heat flux, and the boundary layer baroclinicity in such a way as to reduce storm track activity adjacent to the western boundary in the N. Hemisphere storm tracks, but strengthens the storm track over the southern Indian Ocean. A note of caution is that the results are sensitive to the choice of storm track metric. The results are contrasted with those from a high resolution coupled simulation where the SST is smoothed for the purposes of computing air-sea fluxes, an alternative method of testing sensitivity to SST gradients.

Multi-scale variability of storm Ophelia 2017: The importance of synchronised environmental variables in coastal impact.

PubMed

Guisado-Pintado, Emilia; Jackson, Derek W T

2018-07-15

Low frequency, high magnitude storm events can dramatically alter coastlines, helping to relocate large volumes of sediments and changing the configuration of landforms. Increases in the number of intense cyclones occurring in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1970s is evident with more northward tracking patterns developing. This brings added potential risk to coastal environments and infrastructure in northwest Europe and therefore understanding how these high-energy storms impact sandy coasts in particular is important for future management. This study highlights the evolution of Storm (formally Hurricane) Ophelia in October 2017 as it passed up and along the western seaboard of Ireland. The largest ever recorded Hurricane to form in the eastern Atlantic, we describe, using a range of environmental measurements and wave modelling, its track and intensity over its duration whilst over Ireland. The impact on a stretch of sandy coast in NW Ireland during Storm Ophelia, when the winds were at their peak, is examined using terrestrial laser scanning surveys pre- and post-storm to describe local changes of intertidal and dune edge dynamics. During maximum wind conditions (>35 knots) waves no >2m were recorded with an oblique to parallel orientation and coincident with medium to low tide (around 0.8m). Therefore, we demonstrate that anticipated widespread coastal erosion and damage may not always unfold as predicted. In fact, around 6000m 3 of net erosion occurred along the 420m stretch of coastline with maximum differences in beach topographic changes of 0.8m. The majority of the sediment redistribution occurred within the intertidal and lower beach zone with some limited dune trimming in the southern section (10% of the total erosion). Asynchronous high water (tide levels), localised offshore winds as well as coastline orientation relative to the storm winds and waves plays a significant role in reducing coastal erosional impact. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Upper ocean response to the passage of two sequential typhoons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Renhao; Li, Chunyan

2018-02-01

Two sequential typhoons, separated by five days, Chan-hom and Nangka in the summer of 2015, provided a unique opportunity to study the oceanic response and cold wake evolution. The upper ocean response to the passage of these two typhoons was investigated using multi-satellite, Argo float data and HYCOM global model output. The sea surface cooling (SSC) induced by Chan-hom was gradually enhanced along its track when the storm was intensified while moving over the ocean with shallow mixed layer. The location of maximum cooling of sea surface was determined by the storm's translation speed as well as pre-typhoon oceanic conditions. As a fast-moving storm, Chan-hom induced significant SSC on the right side of its track. Localized maximum cooling patches are found over a cyclonic eddy (CE). An analysis of data from Argo floats near the track of Chan-hom demonstrated that the mixed layer temperature (MLT) and mixed layer depth (MLD) had more variabilities on the right side than those on the left side of Chan-hom's track, while mixed layer salinity (MLS) response was different from those of MLT and MLD with an increase in salinity to the right side and a decrease in salinity to the left side of the track. Subsequently, because of the remnant effect of Chan-hom, the strong upwelling induced by Typhoon Nangka, the pre-existing CE as well as a slow translation speed (<2 m s-1) of the storm, the most significant SSC ( 6 °C) was observed over the CE region in the wake of the storm. Further, Nangka experienced a rapid weakening suggesting immediate negative feedback from the intensified SSC occurred in the CE region. After these two typhoons, the CE was enhanced and the sea surface height of eddy core was depressed by 10 cm. It took more than one month for SSC to restore to its pre-typhoon conditions, with the anomalous geostrophic current advection playing an important role in the process. The enhancement of chlorophyll-a concentrations was also noticed at both the CE region and close to Chan-hom's track.

Storminess at the Gulf of Biscay: classification and long term trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla, D.; Garcia Codron, J. C.

2009-04-01

Widespread geomorphological evidences along the northern coast of the Iberian Peninsula, such as beach retreat or falling cliffs, show the remarkable activity of the Atlantic storm during the last decades. In the present communication we analyze some characteristics of those events and their temporal evolution over the area. Oceanographic information (significant wave height, wave direction and period) was retrieved from observed (buoys network from Puertos del Estado -PdE-) and hindcast (KNMI/ERA 40) databases. To explore the atmospheric mechanisms responsible, we combined local reports from coastal observatories, a regional Eulerian approach (a synoptic typing) and a larger-scale Lagrangian method, based on the analysis of storm-tracks. Surface meteorological variables (sea level pressure and wind speed and direction) were extracted from ISWHO (Integrated Surface Hourly Observations) CD Rom collection. Sea level pressure, surface 10m U and V wind components gridded data were obtained from ECMWF ERA40 Reanalysis. Storm tracks and cyclone statistics were obtained from the CDC Map Room Climate Products Storm Track Data (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/st_data.html). In other to accomplish the objectives of this contribution, first we validated the hindcast data with actual observations from buoys. Secondly, we identified the storm episodes, considering them as a period longer than 12 hours in which the wave height was higher than 6 m, and separated by at least 48. Long winds fetch and locally strong westerly and northwesterly winds expose the northern coast of Iberia to episodes of intense storminess, mainly during the winter months. Extratropical disturbances tracking between the 50-60°N parallel are the main driving force behind those episodes, many of them as a result of a cyclogenesis processes along the eastern coast of North America. In some cases, the deep cyclonic storms are product of a secondary cyclogenesis, crossing the area southward of the 50°N parallel; significant wave heights can be as high as the northernmost cyclones, but the wave period is slightly lower. Only in the western sector (Galicia and Asturias) storms following a SW-NE path induced episodes of high waves.

Tropical Cyclone Evolution and Water and Energy Fluxes: A Hurricane Katrina Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinheiro, M. C.; Zhou, Y.

2015-12-01

Tropical cyclones are a highly destructive force of nature, characterized by extreme precipitation levels and wind speeds and heavy flooding. There are concerns that climate change will cause changes in the intensity and frequency of tropical cyclones. Therefore, the quantification of the water and energy fluxes that occur during a tropical cyclone's life cycle are important for anticipating the magnitude of damages that are likely to occur. This study used HURDAT2 storm track information and data from the satellite-derived SeaFlux and TRMM products to determine changes in precipitation, wind, and latent and sensible heat throughout the life cycle of Hurricane Katrina. The variables were examined along and around the storm track, taking averages both at stationary 5x5 degree boxes and within the instantaneous hurricane domain. Analysis focused on contributions of convergence and latent heat to the storm evolution and examined how the total flux was related to the storm intensity. Certain features, such as the eye, were not resolved due to the data resolution, but the data captures the general trend of enhanced flux levels that are due to the storm's presence. Analysis also included examination of the water and energy budgets as related to convergence and the sensible and latent heat fluxes.

Reconstruction of pre-instrumental storm track trajectories across the U.S. Pacific Northwest using circulation-based field sampling of Pinus Ponderosa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wise, E.; Dannenberg, M. P.

2015-12-01

The trajectory of incoming storms from the Pacific Ocean is a key influence on drought and flood regimes in western North America. Flow is typically from the west in a zonal pattern, but decadal shifts between zonal and meridional flow have been identified as key features in hydroclimatic variability over the instrumental period. In Washington and most of the Pacific Northwest, there tend to be lower-latitude storm systems that result in decreased precipitation in El Niño years. However, the Columbia Basin in central Washington behaves in opposition to the surrounding region and typically has average to above-average precipitation in El Niño years due to changing storm-track trajectories and a decreasing rain shadow effect on the leeward side of the Cascades. This direct connection between storm-track position and precipitation patterns in Washington provided an exceptional opportunity for circulation-based field sampling and chronology development. New Pinus ponderosa (Ponderosa pine) tree-ring chronologies were developed from eight sites around the Columbia Basin in Washington and used to examine year-to-year changes in moisture regimes. Results show that these sites are representative of the two distinct climate response areas. The divergence points between these two site responses allowed us to reconstruct changing precipitation patterns since the late-17th century, and to link these patterns to previously reconstructed atmospheric pressure and El Niño indices. This study highlights the potential for using synoptic climatology to inform field-based proxy collection.

Using the Moist Static Energy Budget to Understand Storm Track Shifts across a Range of Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barpanda, P.; Shaw, T.

2017-12-01

Storm tracks shift meridionally in response to forcing across a range of time scales. Here we formulate a moist static energy (MSE) framework for storm track position and use it to understand storm track shifts in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and direct (increased CO2 over land) and indirect (increased sea surface temperature) effects of increased CO2. Two methods (linearized Taylor series and imposed MSE flux divergence) are developed to quantify storm track shifts and decompose them into contributions from net energy (MSE input to the atmosphere minus atmospheric storage) and MSE flux divergence by the mean meridional circulation and stationary eddies. Net energy is not a dominant contribution across the time scales considered. The stationary eddy contribution dominates the storm-track shift in response to seasonal insolation, El Niño minus La Niña conditions, and CO2 direct effect in the Northern Hemisphere, whereas the mean meridional circulation contribution dominates the shift in response to CO2 indirect effect during northern winter and in the Southern Hemisphere during May and October. Overall, the MSE framework shows the seasonal storm-track shift in the Northern Hemisphere is connected to the stationary eddy MSE flux evolution. Furthermore, the equatorward storm-track shift during northern winter in response to El Niño minus La Niña conditions involves a different regime than the poleward shift in response to increased CO2 even though the tropical upper troposphere warms in both cases.

Total Lightning and Radar Storm Characteristics Associated with Severe Storms in Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goodman, Steven J.; Raghavan, Ravi; Ramachandran, Rahul; Buechler, Dennis; Hodanish, Stephen; Sharp, David; Williams, Earle; Boldi, Bob; Matlin, Anne; Weber, Mark

1998-01-01

A number of prior studies have examined the association of lightning activity with the occurrence of severe weather and tornadoes, in particular. High flash rates are often observed in tornadic storms (Taylor, 1973; Johnson, 1980; Goodman and Knupp, 1993) but not always. Taylor found that 23% of nontornadic storms and 1% of non-severe storms had sferics rates comparable to the tornadic storms. MacGorman (1993) found that storms with mesocyclones produced more frequent intracloud (IC) lightning than cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning. MacGorman (1993) and others suggest that the lightning activity accompanying tomadic storms will be dominated by intracloud lightning-with an increase in intracloud and total flash rates as the updraft increases in depth, size, and velocity. In a recent study, Perez et al. (1998) found that CG flash rates alone are too variable to be a useful predictor of (F4, F5) tornado formation. Studies of non-tomadic storms have also shown that total lightning flash rates track the updraft, with rates increasing as the updraft intensities and decreasing rapidly with cessation of vertical growth or downburst onset (Goodman et al., 1988; Williams et al., 1989). Such relationships result from the development of mixed phase precipitation and increased hydrometer collisions that lead to the efficient separation of charge. Correlations between updraft strength and other variables such as cloud-top height, cloud water mass, and hail size have also been observed.

Atmospheric Response to Zonal Variations in Midlatitude SST: Transient and Stationary Eddies and Their Feedback(.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Inatsu, Masaru; Mukougawa, Hitoshi; Xie, Shang-Ping

2003-10-01

Midwinter storm track response to zonal variations in midlatitude sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has been investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model under aquaplanet and perpetual-January conditions. Zonal wavenumber-1 SST variations with a meridionally confined structure are placed at various latitudes. Having these SST variations centered at 30°N leads to a zonally localized storm track, while the storm track becomes nearly zonally uniform when the same SST forcing is moved farther north at 40° and 50°N. Large (small) baroclinic energy conversion north of the warm (cold) SST anomaly near the axis of the storm track (near 40°N) is responsible for the large (small) storm growth. The equatorward transfer of eddy kinetic energy by the ageostrophic motion and the mechanical damping are important to diminish the storm track activity in the zonal direction.Significant stationary eddies form in the upper troposphere, with a ridge (trough) northeast of the warm (cold) SST anomaly at 30°N. Heat and vorticity budget analyses indicate that zonally localized condensational heating in the storm track is the major cause for these stationary eddies, which in turn exert a positive feedback to maintain the localized storm track by strengthening the vertical shear near the surface. These results indicate an active role of synoptic eddies in inducing deep, tropospheric-scale response to midlatitude SST variations. Finally, the application of the model results to the real atmosphere is discussed.

Revisiting the cold season surge generating storms of the east coast in the 20th century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, D. E.; Kushnir, Y.; Booth, J. F.

2014-12-01

Cold season storms in the East coast of the United States often threaten the coastal livelihood. This is a study to connect the recorded extreme cold season surges with the storms in the past, spanning from the early 20th Century. We find the 20th century reanalysis data (20CR) useful for this study, for its temporal coverage sufficiently overlaps with the modern tidal records. The storm tracks are obtained from the cold season (NDJFMA) sea level pressure field from 20CR, using the popular tracking algorithm by K.Hodges. In seeking for fidelity in the storm data, we made two major efforts: The climatology and the known climate signals imbedded in the track data are verified against those of ERA-interim reanalysis, and against the storms tracked by an independent algorithm (GISS-MCMS). In addition, it is statistically confirmed that the storm tracks and the sea level pressure fields based on 20CR around the east coast area exhibit temporal homogeneity. In the Battery, we select top 100 cold season water displacement events from the 6-hour mean water height data from 1927 to 2012, with linear trend and tide removed. Among the tracks passing close enough to the Battery, we found 91 matches. Distinctive track characteristics stand out when the positive surge events are separated from the negative surge events. More characteristic parameters of the storms are investigated according to further surge classification.

Enhanced object-based tracking algorithm for convective rain storms and cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muñoz, Carlos; Wang, Li-Pen; Willems, Patrick

2018-03-01

This paper proposes a new object-based storm tracking algorithm, based upon TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting). TITAN is a widely-used convective storm tracking algorithm but has limitations in handling small-scale yet high-intensity storm entities due to its single-threshold identification approach. It also has difficulties to effectively track fast-moving storms because of the employed matching approach that largely relies on the overlapping areas between successive storm entities. To address these deficiencies, a number of modifications are proposed and tested in this paper. These include a two-stage multi-threshold storm identification, a new formulation for characterizing storm's physical features, and an enhanced matching technique in synergy with an optical-flow storm field tracker, as well as, according to these modifications, a more complex merging and splitting scheme. High-resolution (5-min and 529-m) radar reflectivity data for 18 storm events over Belgium are used to calibrate and evaluate the algorithm. The performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with that of the original TITAN. The results suggest that the proposed algorithm can better isolate and match convective rainfall entities, as well as to provide more reliable and detailed motion estimates. Furthermore, the improvement is found to be more significant for higher rainfall intensities. The new algorithm has the potential to serve as a basis for further applications, such as storm nowcasting and long-term stochastic spatial and temporal rainfall generation.

Rising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems

Treesearch

Bryan A. Black; Peter van der Sleen; Emanuele Di Lorenzo; Daniel Griffin; William J. Sydeman; Jason B. Dunham; Ryan R. Rykaczewski; Marisol García-Reyes; Mohammad Safeeq; Ivan Arismendi; Steven J. Bograd

2018-01-01

Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we...

Tropical storm interannual and interdecadal variability in an ensemble of GCM integrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitart, Frederic Pol.

1999-11-01

A T42L18 Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced by observed SSTs has been integrated for 10 years with 9 different initial conditions. An objective procedure for tracking model-generated tropical storms has been applied to this ensemble. Statistical tools have been applied to the ensemble frequency, intensity and location of tropical storms, leading to the conclusion that the potential predictability is particularly strong over the western North Pacific, the eastern North Pacific and the western North Atlantic. An EOF analysis of local SSts and a combined EOF analysis of vertical wind shear, 200 mb and 850 mb vorticity indicate that the simulated tropical storm interannual variability is mostly constrained by the large scale circulation as in observations. The model simulates a realistic interannual variability of tropical storms over the western North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific and Australian basin where the model simulates a realistic large scale circulation. Several experiments with the atmospheric GCM forced by imposed SSTs demonstrate that the GCM simulates a realistic impact of ENSO on the simulated Atlantic tropical storms. In addition the GCM simulates fewer tropical storms over the western North Atlantic with SSTs of the 1950s than with SSTs of the 1970s in agreement with observations. Tropical storms simulated with RAS and with MCA have been compared to evaluate their sensitivity to a change in cumulus parameterization. Composites of tropical storm structure indicate stronger tropical storms with higher warm cores with MCA. An experiment using the GFDL hurricane model and several theoretical calculations indicate that the mean state may be responsible for the difference in intensity and in the height of the warm core. With the RAS scheme, increasing the threshold which determines when convection can occur increases the tropical storm frequency almost linearly. The increase of tropical storm frequency seems to be linked to an increase of CAPE. Tropical storms predicted by a coupled model produce a strong cooling of SSTs and their intensity is lower than in the simulations. An ensemble of coupled GCM integrations displays some skill in forecasting the tropical storm frequency when starting on July 1st.

A new approach for the assessment of temporal clustering of extratropical wind storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schuster, Mareike; Eddounia, Fadoua; Kuhnel, Ivan; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

A widely-used methodology to assess the clustering of storms in a region is based on dispersion statistics of a simple homogeneous Poisson process. This clustering measure is determined by the ratio of the variance and the mean of the local storm statistics per grid point. Resulting values larger than 1, i.e. when the variance is larger than the mean, indicate clustering; while values lower than 1 indicate a sequencing of storms that is more regular than a random process. However, a disadvantage of this methodology is that the characteristics are valid for a pre-defined climatological time period, and it is not possible to identify a temporal variability of clustering. Also, the absolute value of the dispersion statistics is not particularly intuitive. We have developed an approach to describe temporal clustering of storms which offers a more intuitive comprehension, and at the same time allows to assess temporal variations. The approach is based on the local distribution of waiting times between the occurrence of two individual storm events, the former being computed through the post-processing of individual windstorm tracks which in turn are obtained by an objective tracking algorithm. Based on this distribution a threshold can be set, either by the waiting time expected from a random process or by a quantile of the observed distribution. Thus, it can be determined if two consecutive wind storm events count as part of a (temporal) cluster. We analyze extratropical wind storms in a reanalysis dataset and compare the results of the traditional clustering measure with our new methodology. We assess what range of clustering events (in terms of duration and frequency) is covered and identify if the historically known clustered seasons are detectable by the new clustering measure in the reanalysis.

The Poleward Shift of Storm Tracks Under Climate Change: Tracking Cyclones in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kaspi, Y.; Tamarin, T.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones dominate the distribution of precipitation and wind in the midlatitudes, and therefore their frequency, intensity, and paths have a significant effect on weather and climate. Comprehensive climate models forced by enhanced greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under a climate change scenario, the latitudinal band of storm tracks would shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what is the dominant dynamical mechanism. Here we use a Lagrangian approach to study the poleward shift, by employing a storm-tracking algorithm on an ensemble of CMIP5 models forced by increased CO2 emissions. We demonstrate that in addition to a poleward shift in the latitude of storm genesis, associated with the expansion of the Hadley cell, the averaged cyclonic storm also propagates more poleward until it reaches its maximum intensity. A mechanism for enhanced poleward motion of cyclones in a warmer climate is proposed, supported by idealized global warming experiments, and relates the shift to changes in upper level jet and atmospheric water vapour content. Our results imply that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the averaged latitude of peak cyclone intensity shifts poleward by about 1.2○ (1.0○) in the Atlantic (Pacific) storm track in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), and by about 1.6○ in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) storm track. These changes in cyclone tracks can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

Oceanic Influences on North Pacific Storm Track Activity and Southwest United States Precipitation and Streamflow from 1915-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bateman, R.

2016-12-01

The Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) exert influence over the position and strength of storm tracks through ocean interactions with the atmosphere. This study utilizes a comprehensive set of satellite and in situ data from 1915-2011 to show how the IPO and AMO may have influenced and are related to historical cool season storm track activity (STA) over the north Pacific and southwest US (SWUS) precipitation and streamflow. SWUS river basin water supply for people, agriculture and energy production throughout the year is predominantly dependent on snowpack depth and by changes in ocean conditions across multiple time scales. Positive STA, precipitation, and streamflow anomalies are most strongly related to positive (warm) IPO phases across datasets and time periods while negative (cool) IPO phases are more robustly linked to negative precipitation anomalies, especially during the mid-20th century. Sub-basin precipitation is differentially dependent on STA over specific north Pacific regions. Additionally, results show evidence for a small eastward shift in north Pacific STA and a lack in mean poleward movement in historical data. Moreover, the interannual to interdecadal variability discussed in this study will continue to be important to water resource managers throughout the region, regardless of future changes to the mean regional state of the climate.

The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamarin, T.; Kaspi, Y.

2017-10-01

Comprehensive models of climate change projections have shown that the latitudinal band of extratropical storms will likely shift poleward under global warming. Here we study this poleward shift from a Lagrangian storm perspective, through simulations with an idealized general circulation model. By employing a feature tracking technique to identify the storms, we demonstrate that the poleward motion of individual cyclones increases with increasing global mean temperature. A potential vorticity tendency analysis of the cyclone composites highlights two leading mechanisms responsible for enhanced poleward motion: nonlinear horizontal advection and diabatic heating associated with latent heat release. Our results imply that for a 4 K rise in the global mean surface temperature, the mean poleward displacement of cyclones increases by about 0.85° of latitude, and this occurs in addition to a poleward shift of about 0.6° in their mean genesis latitude. Changes in cyclone tracks may have a significant impact on midlatitude climate, especially in localized storm tracks such as the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, which may exhibit a more poleward deflected shape.

Investigating Lateral Boundary Forcing of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model Forecasts for Artillery Mission Support

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

the internal variability, such as the storm track or rainfall pattern (8). Arguments have emerged for the use of small domains in certain cases as...Sensitivity experiments were performed with the WRF-ARW over Meiningen, Germany for two strong wintertime extratropical cyclones. These cases were chosen

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society.

PubMed

Santo, H; Taylor, P H; Gibson, R

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santo, H.; Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-09-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958-2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different.

Storm-centric view of Tropical Cyclone oceanic wakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gentemann, C. L.; Scott, J. P.; Smith, D.

2012-12-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have a dramatic impact on the upper ocean. Storm-generated oceanic mixing, high amplitude near-inertial currents, upwelling, and heat fluxes often warm or cool the surface ocean temperatures over large regions near tropical cyclones. These SST anomalies occur to the right (Northern Hemisphere) or left (Southern Hemisphere) of the storm track, varying along and across the storm track. These wide swaths of temperature change have been previously documented by in situ field programs as well as IR and visible satellite data. The amplitude, temporal and spatial variability of these surface temperature anomalies depend primarily upon the storm size, storm intensity, translational velocity, and the underlying ocean conditions. Tropical cyclone 'cold wakes' are usually 2 - 5 °C cooler than pre-storm SSTs, and persist for days to weeks. Since storms that occur in rapid succession typically follow similar paths, the cold wake from one storm can affect development of subsequent storms. Recent studies, on both warm and cold wakes, have mostly focused on small subsets of global storms because of the amount of work it takes to co-locate different data sources to a storm's location. While a number of hurricane/typhoon websites exist that co-locate various datasets to TC locations, none provide 3-dimensional temporal and spatial structure of the ocean-atmosphere necessary to study cold/warm wake development and impact. We are developing a global 3-dimensional storm centric database for TC research. The database we propose will include in situ data, satellite data, and model analyses. Remote Sensing Systems (RSS) has a widely-used storm watch archive which provides the user an interface for visually analyzing collocated NASA Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) winds with GHRSST microwave SSTs and SSM/I, TMI or AMSR-E rain rates for all global tropical cyclones 1999-2009. We will build on this concept of bringing together different data near storm locations when developing the storm-centric database. This database will be made available to researchers via the web display tools previously developed for RSS web pages. The database will provide scientists with a single data format collection of various atmospheric and oceanographic data, and will include all tropical storms since 1998, when the passive MW SSTs from the TMI instrument first became available. Initial results showing an analysis of Typhoon Man-Yi will be presented.

Examining Hurricane Track Length and Stage Duration Since 1980

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fandrich, K. M.; Pennington, D.

2017-12-01

Each year, tropical systems impact thousands of people worldwide. Current research shows a correlation between the intensity and frequency of hurricanes and the changing climate. However, little is known about other prominent hurricane features. This includes information about hurricane track length (the total distance traveled from tropical depression through a hurricane's final category assignment) and how this distance may have changed with time. Also unknown is the typical duration of a hurricane stage, such as tropical storm to category one, and if the time spent in each stage has changed in recent decades. This research aims to examine changes in hurricane stage duration and track lengths for the 319 storms in NOAA's National Ocean Service Hurricane Reanalysis dataset that reached Category 2 - 5 from 1980 - 2015. Based on evident ocean warming, it is hypothesized that a general increase in track length with time will be detected, thus modern hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than past hurricanes. It is also expected that stage durations are decreasing with time so that hurricanes mature faster than in past decades. For each storm, coordinates are acquired at 4-times daily intervals throughout its duration and track lengths are computed for each 6-hour period. Total track lengths are then computed and storms are analyzed graphically and statistically by category for temporal track length changes. The stage durations of each storm are calculated as the time difference between two consecutive stages. Results indicate that average track lengths for Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes are increasing through time. These findings show that these hurricanes are traveling a longer distance than earlier Cat 2 and 3 hurricanes. In contrast, average track lengths for Cat 4 and 5 hurricanes are decreasing through time, showing less distance traveled than earlier decades. Stage durations for all Cat 2, 4 and 5 storms decrease through the decades but Cat 3 storms show a positive increase though time. This compliments the results of the track length analysis indicating that as storms intensify faster, they are doing so over a shorter distance. It is expected that this research could be used to improve hurricane track forecasting and provide information about the effects of climate change on tropical systems and the tropical environment.

Seasonal Extratropical Storm Activity Potential Predictability and its Origins during the Cold Seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pingree-Shippee, K. A.; Zwiers, F. W.; Atkinson, D. E.

2016-12-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) often produce extreme hazardous weather conditions, such as high winds, blizzard conditions, heavy precipitation, and flooding, all of which can have detrimental socio-economic impacts. The North American east and west coastal regions are both strongly influenced by ETCs and, subsequently, land-based, coastal, and maritime economic sectors in Canada and the USA all experience strong adverse impacts from extratropical storm activity from time to time. Society would benefit if risks associated with ETCs and storm activity variability could be reliably predicted for the upcoming season. Skillful prediction would enable affected sectors to better anticipate, prepare for, manage, and respond to storm activity variability and the associated risks and impacts. In this study, the potential predictability of seasonal variations in extratropical storm activity is investigated using analysis of variance to provide quantitative and geographical observational evidence indicative of whether it may be possible to predict storm activity on the seasonal timescale. This investigation will also identify origins of the potential predictability using composite analysis and large-scale teleconnections (Southern Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation), providing the basis upon which seasonal predictions can be developed. Seasonal potential predictability and its origins are investigated for the cold seasons (OND, NDJ, DJF, JFM) during the 1979-2015 time period using daily mean sea level pressure, absolute pressure tendency, and 10-m wind speed from the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis as proxies for extratropical storm activity. Results indicate potential predictability of seasonal variations in storm activity in areas strongly influenced by ETCs and with origins in the investigated teleconnections. For instance, the North Pacific storm track has considerable potential predictability and with notable origins in the SO and PDO.

U.S. Energy Disruptions

EIA Publications

EIA tracks and reports on selected significant storms that impact or could potentially impact energy infrastructure. See past historical events reported or real-time storm tracking with energy infrastructure maps.

Detection of Storm Damage Tracks with EOS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Nair, Udaysankar; Haines, Stephanie L.

2006-01-01

The damage surveys conducted by the NWS in the aftermath of a reported tornadic event are used to document the location of the tornado ground damage track (pathlength and width) and an estimation of the tornado intensity. This study explores the possibility of using near-real-time medium and high spatial resolution satellite imagery from the NASA Earth Observing System satellites to provide additional information for the surveys. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data were used to study the damage tracks from three tornadic storms: the La Plata, Maryland, storm of 28 April 2002 and the Ellsinore and Marquand, Missouri, storms of 24 April 2002. These storms varied in intensity and occurred over regions with significantly different land cover. It was found that, depending on the nature of the land cover, tornado damage tracks from intense storms (F1 or greater) and hail storms may be evident in ASTER, Landsat, and MODIS satellite imagery. In areas where the land cover is dominated by forests, the scar patterns can show up very clearly, while in areas of grassland and regions with few trees, scar patterns are not as obvious or cannot be seen at all in the satellite imagery. The detection of previously unidentified segments of a damage track caused by the 24 April 2002 Marquand, Missouri, tornado demonstrates the utility of satellite imagery for damage surveys. However, the capability to detect tornado tracks in satellite imagery depends on the ability to observe the ground without obstruction from space and appears to be as much dependent on the nature of the underlying surface and land cover as on the severity of the tornadic storm.

Chesapeake Bay plankton and fish abundance enhanced by Hurricane Isabel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roman, M. R.; Boicourt, W. C.; Kimmel, D. G.; Miller, W. D.; Adolf, J. E.; Bichy, J.; Harding, L. W., Jr.; Houde, E. D.; Jung, S.; Zhang, X.

Hurricane Isabel made landfall east of Cape Lookout, North Carolina, as a Category 2 (Safford-Simpson scale) hurricane on 18 September 2003. The storm's center tracked to the northwest, passing west of Chesapeake Bay (Figure 1) in the early morning of 19 September. Hurricane Isabel brought the highest storm surge and winds to the region since the Chesapeake-Potomac hurricane of 1933 and Hurricane Hazel in 1954 (http://www.erh. noaa.gov/er/akq/wx_events/hur/isabel_2003. htm). Storm surge was variable in the region, reaching a high of 2.7 m on the western side of the bay where the heaviest rainfall occurred. The highest sustained wind in the bay region reached 30.8 m s-1 at Gloucester Point,Virginia, with gusts to 40.7 m s-1.

Estimating Surface/Subsurface Sediment Mixing in Karst Settings Using 7Be Isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wicks, C. M.; Paylor, R. L.; Bentley, S. J.

2018-03-01

This study shows that the cosmogenic radionuclide beryllium-7 can be used to track sediment movement through caves. The activities of beryllium-7 and cesium-137 were measured in two different karst settings at both surface and subsurface sites before and after storm runoff events. At one site, 7Be-enriched sediment was detected up to 1.5 km along a stream conduit after a moderate storm event; however, the activity of 137Cs was too variable to show a meaningful pattern. The percentages of surface sediment that was found ranged from 0 to 52% along the entire 3 km cave stream and from 33 to 52% along the upper 1.5 km. At the other site, as much as 96% of the sediment initially discharged at the spring during a storm event was fresh surface material that had traveled into and through the cave stream. Moreover, during the 4 day runoff event, approximately 23% of the total suspended sediment flux was estimated to originate from surface erosion with 78% being reworked sediment from within the cave. The data in this study show that cosmogenic radionuclides with multiyear half-lives are too long-lived to track sediment origins in the caves; whereas, 7Be with a 53.2 day half-life, can be used to track movement of sediment along cave streams.

Circulation and Convection in the Irminger Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-02-01

a preconditioning phase, which is contrary to general ex- pectations. Changes in the hemispheric air temperature, tracks of storms , flux of freshwater...53 3.5 Storm patterns . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 3.6...of convection has important climatic impacts: Heat is released from the ocean to the atmo- sphere, which energizes the North Atlantic storm track and

Late Holocene Hurricane Activity in the Gulf of Mexico from a Bayou Sediment Archive

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rodysill, J. R.; Donnelly, J. P.; Toomey, M.; Sullivan, R.; MacDonald, D.; Evans, R. L.; Ashton, A. D.

2012-12-01

Hurricanes pose a considerable threat to coastal communities along the Atlantic seaboard and in the Gulf of Mexico. The complex role of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in controlling storm frequency and intensity, and how these relationships could be affected by climate change, remains uncertain. To better predict how storms will impact coastal communities, it is vital to constrain their past behavior, in particular how storm frequency and intensity and the pattern of storm tracks have been influenced by past climate conditions. In an effort to characterize past storm behavior, our work contributes to the growing network of storm records along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts by reconstructing storm-induced deposits in the northern Gulf of Mexico during the Late Holocene. Previous work on the northern Gulf coast has shown considerable centennial-scale variability in the occurrence of intense hurricanes, much like the northern Atlantic coast and in the Caribbean Sea. The timing of active and quiet intervals during the last 1000 years amongst the Gulf Coast records appears to be anti-phased with stormy intervals along the North American east coast. The sparse spatial coverage of the existing intense hurricane reconstructions provides a limited view of the natural variability of intense hurricanes. A new, high resolution reconstruction of storms along the northern Gulf Coast would be beneficial in assembling the picture of the patterns of storminess during the Late Holocene. Our study site, Basin Bayou, is situated on the north side of Choctawhatchee Bay in northwest Florida. From 1851 to 2011, 68 storms have struck the coast within 75 miles of Basin Bayou, of which 10 were Category 3 or greater, making it a prime location to reconstruct intense hurricanes. Basin Bayou openly exchanges water with Choctawhatchee Bay through a narrow channel, which acts as a conduit for propagating storm surges, and potentially coarse-grained bay sediments, into the bayou. Our record is constructed from grain size analyses and core density measurements on multiple cores from Basin Bayou. The upper sediments were dated with 210Pb and 137Cs techniques and compared with the historical record of storms. We observe substantial centennial-scale variability in the occurrence of storm-induced deposits in Basin Bayou over the last 1500 years that aligns considerably well with the temporal distribution of intense storms from preexisting Gulf Coast reconstructions.

Linking storm surge activity and circulation variability along the Spanish coast through a synoptic pattern classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, Domingo; Garcia Codrón, Juan Carlos

2010-05-01

The potentially negative consequences resulting from the estimations of global sea level rising along the current century are a matter of serious concern in many coastal areas worldwide. Most of the negative consequences of the sea level variability, such as flooding or erosion, are linked to episodic events of strong atmospheric forcing represented by deep atmospheric disturbances, especially if they combine with extreme astronomical high tides. Moreover, the interaction between the prevailing flows during such events and the actual orientation of the coast line might accelerate or mitigate such impacts. This contribution analyses sea surge variations measured at five tide-gauge stations located around the Iberian Peninsula and their relationships with regional scale circulation patterns with local-scale winds. Its aim is to improve the knowledge of surge related-coastal-risks by analysing the relationship between surges and their atmospheric forcing factors at different spatial scales. The oceanographic data set consists of hourly data from 5 tide gauge stations (Santander, Vigo, Bonanza, Málaga, Valencia and Barcelona) disseminated along the Spanish coastline, provided by Puertos del Estado. To explore the atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the sign and magnitude of sea surges, a regional Eulerian approach (a synoptic typing) were combined with a larger-scale Lagrangian method, based on the analysis of storm-tracks over the Atlantic and local information (synop reports) obtained from the closest meteorological stations to the tide gauges. The synoptic catalogue was obtained following a procedure that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for reduction purposes and clustering (Ward plus K-means) to define the circulation types. Sea level pressure, surface 10m U and V wind components gridded data were obtained from NCEP Reanalysis, while storm tracks and cyclone statistics were extracted from the CDC Map Room Climate Products Storm Track Data (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/st_data.html). The second task was to evaluate the performance of each circulation type on the spatial patterns of a daily fire danger risk index (Canadian Fire Weather Index, FWI). Finally, anomaly maps of several surface and low level climate variables, corresponding to the dates of ignition of the very large forest fires within each synoptic pattern, were calculated to provide insight of the specific conditions associated to those extreme events. A principal component analysis upon 6 hourly residuals highlighted the homogeneous behaviour of the tide gauges and provided a regional quantitative index to identify the largest storm surges. The leading PCA displayed a homogeneous spatial pattern, describing the low frequency variability along the entire coast, in spite of different orientations of the coast, accounting for more than 80% of the total variability. The second PCA displayed opposite phases between the Atlantic and the Mediterranean. Furthermore, the results suggest that surges are a regional rather than local phenomenon, probably related to the same single physical forcing. The comparison between extreme surge events and circulation patterns highlighted that single physical mechanism is represented by extratropical cyclonic disturbances located at the north-western corner of the Iberian Peninsula, responsible for an environment characterized by low pressure readings and westerly-southwesterly winds. That wind pattern acquires an onshore component in the Atlantic coast, but becomes offshore in the Mediterranean. So, the main mechanism responsible for those storm surges is the inverse barometer effect, being the wind dragging secondary. The main physical forcing of the storm surges, the extratropical cyclones, have experience a reduction of this frequency and a marked reduction in their strength since 1950, replaced by stable circulations. Both conditions suggest a long term reduction of the frequency and the magnitude of storm surges.

Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tamarin-Brodsky, Talia; Kaspi, Yohai

2017-12-01

Earth's midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which is based on a Lagrangian view of the storm tracks. We show that in addition to a poleward shift in the genesis latitude of the storms, associated with the shift in baroclinicity, the latitudinal displacement of cyclonic storms increases under global warming. This is achieved by applying a storm-tracking algorithm to an ensemble of CMIP5 models. The increased latitudinal propagation in a warmer climate is shown to be a result of stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour. These changes in the propagation characteristics of the storms can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

Decadal variability of extreme wave height representing storm severity in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea since the foundation of the Royal Society

PubMed Central

Taylor, P. H.; Gibson, R.

2016-01-01

Long-term estimation of extreme wave height remains a key challenge because of the short duration of available wave data, and also because of the possible impact of climate variability on ocean waves. Here, we analyse storm-based statistics to obtain estimates of extreme wave height at locations in the northeast Atlantic and North Sea using the NORA10 wave hindcast (1958–2011), and use a 5 year sliding window to examine temporal variability. The decadal variability is correlated to the North Atlantic oscillation and other atmospheric modes, using a six-term predictor model incorporating the climate indices and their Hilbert transforms. This allows reconstruction of the historic extreme climate back to 1661, using a combination of known and proxy climate indices. Significant decadal variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic oscillation is observed, and this should be considered for the long-term survivability of offshore structures and marine renewable energy devices. The analysis on wave climate reconstruction reveals that the variation of the mean, 99th percentile and extreme wave climates over decadal time scales for locations close to the dominant storm tracks in the open North Atlantic are comparable, whereas the wave climates for the rest of the locations including the North Sea are rather different. PMID:27713662

The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Version 6 Cloud Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kahn, B. H.; Irion, F. W.; Dang, V. T.; Manning, E. M.; Nasiri, S. L.; Naud, C. M.; Blaisdell, J. M.; Schreier, M. M..; Yue, Q.; Bowman, K. W.;

Exploring the Links in Monthly to Decadal Variability of the Atmospheric Water Balance Over the Wettest Regions in ERA-20C

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, M.

2017-10-01

Monthly-to-decadal variability of the regional precipitation over Intertropical Convergence Zone and north-Atlantic and north-Pacific storm tracks was investigated using ERA-20C reanalysis. Satellite-based precipitation (P) and evaporation (E) climatological patterns were well reproduced by ERA-20C. Regional P and E monthly time series displayed 20% differences, but these decreased rapidly with time scale ( 10% at yearly time scales). Spectral analysis showed good scale-by-scale statistical agreement between ERA-20C and observations. Using ERA-Interim showed no improvement despite the much wider range of information assimilated (including satellites). Remarkably high Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis coefficients (ρDCCA > 0.7 and often ρDCCA > 0.9) revealed tight links between the nonperiodic variability of P, moisture divergence (DIV), and pressure velocity (ω) at monthly-to-decadal time scales over all the wet regions. In contrast, ρDCCA was essentially nonsignificant between nonperiodic P and E or sea surface temperature (SST). Thus, the nonperiodic monthly-to-decadal variability of precipitation in these regions is almost fully controlled by dynamics and not by local E or SST (suggested by Clausius-Clapeyron relation). Analysis of regional nonperiodic standard deviations and power spectra (and respective spectral exponents, β) provided further robustness to this conclusion. Finally, clear transitions in β for P, DIV, and ω between tropical and storm track regions were found. The latter is dominated by transient storms, with energy accumulation at synoptic scales and β < 0.1 at monthly-to-decadal time scales, implying that variability and information creation decrease rapidly with time scale. Larger β values (0.2 to 0.4) were found in the tropics, implying longer-range autocorrelations and slower decreasing variability and information creation with time scale, consistent with the important forcing from internal modes of variability (e.g., El Niño-Southern Oscillation).

The Modulation of Tropical Storm Activity in the Western North Pacific by the Madden-Julian Oscillation in GEOS-5 AGCM Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kim, Dongmin; Lee, Myong-In; Kim, Hye-Mi; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Yoo, Jin Ho

2014-01-01

This study examines the influence of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on tropical storm (TS) activity in the western North Pacific, using observations and GEOS-5 simulations at 50-km horizontal resolution. While GEOS-5 produces an MJO of faster propagation and weaker amplitude, it nevertheless reproduces the observed modulation of TS activity by the MJO with the highest TS genesis and increased track density in the active phases of MJO. The study suggests that the simulation of the sub-seasonal variability of TS activity could be improved by improving the simulations of the MJO in climate models.

Analysis of Dynamics in Bays and Coastal Waters Impacted by Hurricanes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, C.; Lin, H.; Chen, C.

2012-12-01

The dynamical processes in coastal bays/estuaries and continental shelf are mostly tidally and wind driven. Under severe weather conditions such as hurricanes and tropical storms, the process is much more dynamic and variable. In an attempt to illustrate the dynamical regimes in coastal bays and adjacent coastal ocean, we have simulated circulation and storm tides in the northern Gulf of Mexico forced by 49 hurricanes, respectively; among which 4 are the most recent real hurricanes: Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita of 2005, and Hurricane Gustav and Hurricane Ike of 2008. The other 45 hurricanes are hypothetical in their tracks, but based on the real hurricanes in terms of forcing conditions. More specifically, these 45 hurricanes are divided into five groups, each corresponding to one of these four real hurricanes plus a group for hypothetical Category 5 hurricanes, based on the information of Hurricane Katrina, except that the strength of the hurricane is increased to Category 5. Using otherwise the same forcing conditions of the hurricanes, we apply variations of each of the hurricane tracks with roughly the same moving speed. Each group has a total of 9 simulations (with 9 different tracks). Our model allows inundation of wetland, and low lying lands on the coast and around the Louisiana Bays. The model for the hurricane storm tide was done with an implementation of the Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model, or FVCOM. Our analysis of the results reveals rich dynamical processes in the bays and estuaries and on the adjacent continental shelf. It involves various oscillations, depending on the hurricane conditions and track history and positions, long waves, under the influence of earth rotation, and currents. The protruding delta, bathymetry, and the setup of the bays all play some roles in shaping the dynamics, water movement, inundation, and receding of the storm surges.

Storm Surge Modeling of Typhoon Haiyan at the Naval Oceanographic Office Using Delft3D

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilligan, M. J.; Lovering, J. L.

2016-02-01

The Naval Oceanographic Office provides estimates of the rise in sea level along the coast due to storm surge associated with tropical cyclones, typhoons, and hurricanes. Storm surge modeling and prediction helps the US Navy by providing a threat assessment tool to help protect Navy assets and provide support for humanitarian assistance/disaster relief efforts. Recent advancements in our modeling capabilities include the use of the Delft3D modeling suite as part of a Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) developed Coastal Surge Inundation Prediction System (CSIPS). Model simulations were performed on Typhoon Haiyan, which made landfall in the Philippines in November 2013. Comparisons of model simulations using forecast and hindcast track data highlight the importance of accurate storm track information for storm surge predictions. Model runs using the forecast track prediction and hindcast track information give maximum storm surge elevations of 4 meters and 6.1 meters, respectively. Model results for the hindcast simulation were compared with data published by the JSCE-PICE Joint survey for locations in San Pedro Bay (SPB) and on the Eastern Samar Peninsula (ESP). In SPB, where wind-induced set-up predominates, the model run using the forecast track predicted surge within 2 meters in 38% of survey locations and within 3 meters in 59% of the locations. When the hindcast track was used, the model predicted within 2 meters in 77% of the locations and within 3 meters in 95% of the locations. The model was unable to predict the high surge reported along the ESP produced by infragravity wave-induced set-up, which is not simulated in the model. Additional modeling capabilities incorporating infragravity waves are required to predict storm surge accurately along open coasts with steep bathymetric slopes, such as those seen in island arcs.

The influence of mid-latitude storm tracks on hot, cold, dry and wet extremes

PubMed Central

Lehmann, Jascha; Coumou, Dim

2015-01-01

Changes in mid-latitude circulation can strongly affect the number and intensity of extreme weather events. In particular, high-amplitude quasi-stationary planetary waves have been linked to prolonged weather extremes at the surface. In contrast, analyses of fast-traveling synoptic-scale waves and their direct influence on heat and cold extremes are scarce though changes in such waves have been detected and are projected for the 21st century. Here we apply regression analyses of synoptic activity with surface temperature and precipitation in monthly gridded observational data. We show that over large parts of mid-latitude continental regions, summer heat extremes are associated with low storm track activity. In winter, the occurrence of cold spells is related to low storm track activity over parts of eastern North America, Europe, and central- to eastern Asia. Storm tracks thus have a moderating effect on continental temperatures. Pronounced storm track activity favors monthly rainfall extremes throughout the year, whereas dry spells are associated with a lack thereof. Trend analyses reveal significant regional changes in recent decades favoring the occurrence of cold spells in the eastern US, droughts in California and heat extremes over Eurasia. PMID:26657163

Dust Storm Feature Identification and Tracking from 4D Simulation Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, M.; Yang, C. P.

2016-12-01

Dust storms cause significant damage to health, property and the environment worldwide every year. To help mitigate the damage, dust forecasting models simulate and predict upcoming dust events, providing valuable information to scientists, decision makers, and the public. Normally, the model simulations are conducted in four-dimensions (i.e., latitude, longitude, elevation and time) and represent three-dimensional (3D), spatial heterogeneous features of the storm and its evolution over space and time. This research investigates and proposes an automatic multi-threshold, region-growing based identification algorithm to identify critical dust storm features, and track the evolution process of dust storm events through space and time. In addition, a spatiotemporal data model is proposed, which can support the characterization and representation of dust storm events and their dynamic patterns. Quantitative and qualitative evaluations for the algorithm are conducted to test the sensitivity, and capability of identify and track dust storm events. This study has the potential to assist a better early warning system for decision-makers and the public, thus making hazard mitigation plans more effective.

Statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storms over Europe derived from a probabilistic clustering technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, Michael; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

2016-04-01

Extratropical wind storms pose one of the most dangerous and loss intensive natural hazards for Europe. However, due to only 50 years of high quality observational data, it is difficult to assess the statistical uncertainty of these sparse events just based on observations. Over the last decade seasonal ensemble forecasts have become indispensable in quantifying the uncertainty of weather prediction on seasonal timescales. In this study seasonal forecasts are used in a climatological context: By making use of the up to 51 ensemble members, a broad and physically consistent statistical base can be created. This base can then be used to assess the statistical uncertainty of extreme wind storm occurrence more accurately. In order to determine the statistical uncertainty of storms with different paths of progression, a probabilistic clustering approach using regression mixture models is used to objectively assign storm tracks (either based on core pressure or on extreme wind speeds) to different clusters. The advantage of this technique is that the entire lifetime of a storm is considered for the clustering algorithm. Quadratic curves are found to describe the storm tracks most accurately. Three main clusters (diagonal, horizontal or vertical progression of the storm track) can be identified, each of which have their own particulate features. Basic storm features like average velocity and duration are calculated and compared for each cluster. The main benefit of this clustering technique, however, is to evaluate if the clusters show different degrees of uncertainty, e.g. more (less) spread for tracks approaching Europe horizontally (diagonally). This statistical uncertainty is compared for different seasonal forecast products.

Severe Weather Guide - Mediterranean Ports. 7. Marseille

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

the afternoon. Upper—level westerlies and the associated storm track is moved northward during summer, so extratropical cyclones and associated...autumn as the extratropical storm track moves southward. Precipitation amount is the highest of the year, with an average of 3 inches (76 mm) for the...18 SUBJECT TERMS (Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) Storm haven Mediterranean meteorology Marseille port

Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales with the ECMWF monthly forecast model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elsberry, Russell L.; Jordan, Mary S.; Vitart, Frederic

2010-05-01

The objective of this study is to provide evidence of predictability on intraseasonal time scales (10-30 days) for western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation and subsequent tracks using the 51-member ECMWF 32-day forecasts made once a week from 5 June through 25 December 2008. Ensemble storms are defined by grouping ensemble member vortices whose positions are within a specified separation distance that is equal to 180 n mi at the initial forecast time t and increases linearly to 420 n mi at Day 14 and then is constant. The 12-h track segments are calculated with a Weighted-Mean Vector Motion technique in which the weighting factor is inversely proportional to the distance from the endpoint of the previous 12-h motion vector. Seventy-six percent of the ensemble storms had five or fewer member vortices. On average, the ensemble storms begin 2.5 days before the first entry of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best-track file, tend to translate too slowly in the deep tropics, and persist for longer periods over land. A strict objective matching technique with the JTWC storms is combined with a second subjective procedure that is then applied to identify nearby ensemble storms that would indicate a greater likelihood of a tropical cyclone developing in that region with that track orientation. The ensemble storms identified in the ECMWF 32-day forecasts provided guidance on intraseasonal timescales of the formations and tracks of the three strongest typhoons and two other typhoons, but not for two early season typhoons and the late season Dolphin. Four strong tropical storms were predicted consistently over Week-1 through Week-4, as was one weak tropical storm. Two other weak tropical storms, three tropical cyclones that developed from precursor baroclinic systems, and three other tropical depressions were not predicted on intraseasonal timescales. At least for the strongest tropical cyclones during the peak season, the ECMWF 32-day ensemble provides guidance of formation and tracks on 10-30 day timescales.

Northern Hemisphere extratropical winter cyclones variability over the 20th century derived from ERA-20C reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varino, Filipa; Arbogast, Philippe; Joly, Bruno; Riviere, Gwendal; Fandeur, Marie-Laure; Bovy, Henry; Granier, Jean-Baptiste

2018-03-01

The multi-decadal variations of wintertime extra-tropical cyclones during the last century are studied using a vorticity-based tracking algorithm applied to the long-term ERA-20C reanalysis from ECMWF. The variability of moderate-to-deep extra-tropical winter cyclones in ERA-20C show three distinct periods. Two at the beginning and at the end of the century (1900-1935 and 1980-2010) present weak or no significant trends in the Northern Hemisphere as a whole and only some regional trends. The period in between (1935-1980) is marked by a significant increase in Northern Hemisphere moderate-to-deep cyclones frequency. During the latter period, polar regions underwent a significant cooling over the whole troposphere that increased and shifted poleward the mid-latitude meridional temperature gradient and the baroclinicity. This is linked to positive-to-negative shifts of the PDO between 1935 and 1957 and of the AMO between 1957 and 1980 which mainly reinforced the storm-track eddy generation in the North Pacific and North Atlantic regions respectively, as seen from baroclinic conversion from mean to eddy potential energy. As a result, both the North Pacific and North Atlantic extra-tropical storms increase in frequency during the two subperiods (1935-1957 and 1957-1980), together with other storm-track quantities such as the high-frequency eddy kinetic energy. In contrast, the first and third periods are characterized by a warming of the polar temperatures. However, as the stronger warming is confined to the lower troposphere, the baroclinicity do not uniformly increase in the whole troposphere. This may explain why the recent rapid increase in polar temperatures has not affected the behaviour of extratropical cyclones very much. Finally, the large magnitude of the positive trend found in moderate-to-deep cyclone frequency during the second period is still questioned as the period is marked by an important increase in the number of assimilated observations. However, the dynamical link between changes in cyclone frequency, changes in large-scale baroclinicity and ocean decadal variability found in the present study makes us confident on the sign of the detected cyclone trend.

Storm-Tracks in ERA-40 and ERA-Interim Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Trigo, I. F.; Trigo, R. M.

2009-04-01

Extratropical cyclones, their dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of cyclone characteristics for the Euro-Atlantic sector (85°W-70°E; 20°N-75°N) presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al., 1999, 2002) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo, 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows (Trigo et al. 1999), is applied to 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000-hPa from two reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Two storm-track databases are built over the Northern Atlantic European area, spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1989 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions (T106 and T255, respectively). This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclone formation and dissipation and main cyclone characteristics for the Euro-Atlantic sector. Trigo, I. F., T. D. Davies, and G. R. Bigg, 1999: Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate, 12, 1685-1696. Trigo I. F., G. R. Bigg and T. D. Davies, 2002: Climatology of Cyclogenesis Mechanisms in the Mediterranean. Mon. Weather Rev. 130, 549-569. Trigo, I. F. 2006: Climatology and Interannual Variability of Storm-Tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR Reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. DOI 10.1007/s00382-005-0065-9.

Session A-14: Variability of Storm Tracks Storm Tracks and Unseasonable Temperatures in Europe in December 2001

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Przybylak, R.; Ardizzone, J.; Atlas, R.; Koslowsky, D.; Otterman, J.; Rogers, J.; Starr, D.; Atlas, Robert (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

In December 2001, a series of cyclonic centers progressed rapidly into Europe from the west and north. The cyclones moved in generally similar directions, along paths separated by few hundreds of kilometers. The advancing cyclones brought the usual sequence of changing wind directions and produced some high speed wind events. We investigate the wind patterns for this month based on analyses derived the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager observations and NCEP analyses. Whereas southwesterlies from the North Atlantic produced moderate temperatures early in the month, strong northerlies and northwesterlies (up to 15 m/s on 20-22 December) produced a drop in daily minimum and maximum temperatures of 18.8 C and 9.9 C, respectively, over a 4 day period (to -18.8 C and -6.8 C, respectively, on December 23 in Torun, Poland). Such low values in December are unprecedented in recent decades, though not for January or February.

Emerging European winter precipitation pattern linked to atmospheric circulation changes over the North Atlantic region in recent decades

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Seo, Hyodae; Kwon, Young-Oh; Parfitt, Rhys; Brands, Swen; Joyce, Terrence M.

2017-08-01

Dominant European winter precipitation patterns over the past century, along with their associated extratropical North Atlantic circulation changes, are evaluated using cluster analysis. Contrary to the four regimes traditionally identified based on daily wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns, five distinct seasonal precipitation regimes are detected here. Recurrent precipitation patterns in each regime are linked to changes in atmospheric blocking, storm track, and sea surface temperatures across the North Atlantic region. Multidecadal variability in the frequency of the precipitation patterns reveals more (fewer) winters with wet conditions in northern (southern) Europe in recent decades and an emerging distinct pattern of enhanced wintertime precipitation over the northern British Isles. This pattern has become unusually common since the 1980s and is associated with changes in moisture transport and more frequent atmospheric river events. The observed precipitation changes post-1950 coincide with changes in storm track activity over the central/eastern North Atlantic toward the northern British Isles.

Investigating added value of regional climate modeling in North American winter storm track simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

2018-03-01

Extratropical Cyclone (EC) characteristics depend on a combination of large-scale factors and regional processes. However, the latter are considered to be poorly represented in global climate models (GCMs), partly because their resolution is too coarse. This paper describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into storm activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981-2005) is considered to assess EC activity over NA using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 GCMs used to drive the Canadian Regional Climate Model—version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological storm track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while capturing their intensity fairly well. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over NA eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with marked relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value contributed by CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western NA areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Despite this significant added-value on seasonal-mean characteristics, a caveat is raised on the RCM ability to handle storm temporal `seriality', as a measure of their temporal variability at a given location. In fact, the driving models induce some significant footprints on the RCM skill to reproduce the intra-seasonal pattern of storm activity.

The Influence of Global Climate Changes on Storm-Tracks of Northern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martynova, Y.; Krupchatnikov, V. N.

2012-12-01

Non-stationary eddies in mid-latitude storm-tracks are an important mechanism of energy, moment and moisture transfer in climate system [1]. Baroclinic eddies bring heavy rains and other hazard weather phenomena in the middle latitudes, play an important role in the global energy and the hydrological cycle. Recently, the increase of a cyclones rate at high latitudes with their frequency decrease in the second half of the 20th century was discovered using reanalysis data [2,3]. However, there is still no common point of view about how storm-track's distribution and intensity will be changed under the climate change influence [4,5]. In our work we investigate a variation of transient eddies general propagation tracks as a result of the global climate change effect. Using global large-scale intermediate complexity model of climate system [6] the numerical experiment was provided for the time period from 850 to 3000 year with a scenario of greenhouse gases influence on climate. From 850 to 2005 this impact was set according to the protocol "Historical simulations" of CMIP5 [7]. For 21th century anthropogenic effects were set according to the most aggressive scenario RCP 8.5 [8]. For the period 22-23 centuries CO2 concentration was on the level of 2100 year, and for 24-30 centuries it returned to pre-industrial value linearly in time of 100 years. Using a filter [9] we defined three variation intervals: low-frequency, medium-frequency and high-frequency. In our work we paid attention to medium-scale waves (i.e. 2-8 days). Two seasons were chosen: winter and summer. For each season we considered average fields of parameters characterizing poleward heat flux at 700 mb and transient eddies variance at 250 mb. Besides of the sensitivity of storm-track dynamic we considered some other features of "warm" climate. The work is partially supported by The Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation #(#07.514.11.4044), RFBR grants #10-07-00547, #11-05-01190, and SB RAS projects 4.31.1.5, 4.31.2.7 and 131. Reference: 1. Hoskins, B.J. and P.J. Valdes. On the existence of storm-tracks. J Atmos Sci, 47, pp. 1854-1864, 1990. 2. Lambert, S.J. and J.C. Fyfe. Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: Results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise. Climate Dynamics, 26:713-728, 2006. 3. Geng, Q. and M. Sugi. Variability of the North Atlantic cyclone activity in winter analyzed from NCEP-NCAR reanalysis data. J Climate, 14:3863-3873, 2001. 4. Bengtsson, L., K.I. Hodges, and N. Keenlyside. Will extratropical storms intensify in a warmer climate? J Climate, 22:2276-2301, 2009. 5. Brayshaw, D.J., B. Hoskins, and M. Blackburn. The basic ingredients of the North Atlantic storm track. part i: land-sea-contrast and orography. J Atmos Sci, 66 pp. 2539-2559, 2009. 6. Fraedrich K., Jansen H., et al. The Planet Simulator: Towards a user friendly model // Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 2005. Vol. 14, N. 3. P. 299-304. 7. http://climate.uvic.ca/EMICAR5 8. Meinshausen M., Smith S., et al. The RCP Greenhouse Gas Concentrations and their extension from 1765 to 2500 // Climatic Change.- 2011.- Special Issue on RCPs. 9. Blackmon M.L. A climatological spectral study of the 500 mb geopotential height of the Northern Hemisphere // J. Atmos. Sci.1976. V. 33, N. 8. P. 1607-1623.

Surface Wind Field Analyses of Tropical Cyclones in the Western Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-01

Averaged vertical profiles of actual wind speeds (m s-1) from all dropwindsondes in three ITOP storms . (b) Averaged vertical profiles of wind speeds...for the entire set of winds from the three ITOP 2010 typhoons. .............................1  Figure 27.  a) Storm -relative motion flight track for...1  Figure 28.  a) Storm -relative motion flight track for flight 0420 in TY Fanapi

Severe Weather Guide - Mediterranean Ports. 4. Augusta Bay

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-03-01

the year. The track o-f strong extratropical storms has moved northward and poses little tiireat to Augusta Bay. Sea breezes are daily occurrences...as temperatures, begin to moderate. Extratropi cal systems begin to transit Europe as the storm track moves southward in advance of the winter...SUB-GROUP 18. SUBJECT TERMS {Continue on reverse if necessary and identify by block number) Storm haven Mediterranean meteorology Augusta Bay

Using atmospheric chemistry and storm tracks to explain nitrate stable isotope variations in precipitation at a site in central Pennsylvania, USA

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stable isotopes of NO3- (delta15N-NO3- and delta18O-NO3-) were monitored in precipitation at a central Pennsylvania site during six storm events in 2005 to determine whether information on atmospheric oxidants (e.g. O3, NO2, and NOx), and storm-tracks were capable of explaining observed seasonal and...

Why were Past North Atlantic Warming Conditions Associated with Drier Climate in the Western United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wong, C. I.; Potter, G. L.; Montanez, I. P.; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Behling, P.; Oster, J. L.

2014-12-01

Investigating climate dynamics governing rainfall over the western US during past warmings and coolings of the last glacial and deglaciation is pertinent to understanding how precipitation patterns might change with future global warming, especially as the processes driving the global hydrological reorganization affecting this drought-prone region during these rapid temperature changes remain unresolved. We present model climates of the Bølling warm event (14,500 years ago) and Younger Dryas cool event (12,200 years ago) that i) uniquely enable the assessment of dueling hypothesis about the atmospheric teleconnections responsible for abrupt temperature shifts in the North Atlantic region to variations in moisture conditions across the western US, and ii) show that existing hypotheses about these teleconnections are unsupported. Modeling results show no evidence for a north-south shift of the Pacific winter storm track, and we argue that a tropical moisture source with evolving trajectory cannot explain alternation between wet/dry conditions, which have been reconstructed from the proxy record. Alternatively, model results support a new hypothesis that variations in the intensity of the winter storm track, corresponding to its expansion/contraction, can account for regional moisture differences between warm and cool intervals of the last deglaciation. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the mechanism forcing the teleconnection between the North Atlantic and western US is the same across different boundary conditions. In our simulation, during the last deglaciation, and in simulations of future warming, perturbation of the Rossby wave structure reconfigures the atmospheric state. This reconfiguration affects the Aleutian Low and high-pressure ridge over and off of the northern North American coastline driving variability in the storm track. Similarity between the processes governing the climate response during these distinct time intervals illustrates the robust nature of the teleconnection, a novel result that provides context for understanding the climate processes governing the response of moisture variability to future climate change.

Estimating the Response of Mid-latitude Orographic Precipitation to Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Xiaoming

The possible change in orographic precipitation in response to global warming is a rising concern under climate change, which could potentially cause significant societal impact. A general circulation model was employed to simulate the climate on an aquaplanet which has idealized mountains at its mid-latitudes. It was found that orographic precipitation at northern mid-latitudes could increase by rates faster than the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling, ˜7%/K of surface warming, in doubling CO2 simulations, while at southern mid-latitudes orographic precipitation decreased. The frequency of extreme events increased at all latitudes of the idealized mountains. Through a simple diagnostic model it was revealed that the changes in the climatological means of orographic precipitation rates were mostly determined by the changes in three variables: the speed of the wind component perpendicular to a mountain, the vertical displacement of saturated parcels, and the moist adiabatic lapse rate of saturation specific humidity. The last variable had relatively uniform contribution to the total changes in orographic precipitation across different latitudes, about 4 -- 5%/K. But contributions from the changes in wind speed and saturated vertical displacement were found to have strong north-south asymmetry, which were linked to the poleward shift of storm tracks. The changes in wind speed had positive contributions in general, with larger contributions at higher mid-latitudes. While the changes in saturated vertical displacement had negative contributions at all latitudes, but larger negative contributions were located at lower mid-latitudes. Although the poleward shift of storm tracks greatly affects regional precipitation, following the poleward shift of storm tracks the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of precipitation at the latitudes of maximum precipitation in the control simulation is very similar to that in the warm climate simulation, except that precipitation intensity was positively shifted by a constant factor --- mainly due to changes in the moist adiabatic lapse rate of saturation specific humidity.

A twenty-first century California observing network for monitoring extreme weather events

USGS Publications Warehouse

White, A.B.; Anderson, M.L.; Dettinger, M.D.; Ralph, F.M.; Hinojosa, A.; Cayan, D.R.; Hartman, R.K.; Reynolds, D.W.; Johnson, L.E.; Schneider, T.L.; Cifelli, R.; Toth, Z.; Gutman, S.I.; King, C.W.; Gehrke, F.; Johnston, P.E.; Walls, C.; Mann, Dorte; Gottas, D.J.; Coleman, T.

2013-01-01

During Northern Hemisphere winters, the West Coast of North America is battered by extratropical storms. The impact of these storms is of paramount concern to California, where aging water supply and flood protection infrastructures are challenged by increased standards for urban flood protection, an unusually variable weather regime, and projections of climate change. Additionally, there are inherent conflicts between releasing water to provide flood protection and storing water to meet requirements for water supply, water quality, hydropower generation, water temperature and flow for at-risk species, and recreation. In order to improve reservoir management and meet the increasing demands on water, improved forecasts of precipitation, especially during extreme events, is required. Here we describe how California is addressing their most important and costliest environmental issue – water management – in part, by installing a state-of-the-art observing system to better track the area’s most severe wintertime storms.

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bender, Frida A-M.; Rananathan, V.; Tselioudis, G.

2012-01-01

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Lightning Jump Algorithm Development for the GOES·R Geostationary Lightning Mapper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz. E.; Schultz. C.; Chronis, T.; Stough, S.; Carey, L.; Calhoun, K.; Ortega, K.; Stano, G.; Cecil, D.; Bateman, M.;

Synoptic Scale North American Weather Tracks and the Formation of North Atlantic Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baum, A. J.; Godek, M. L.

2014-12-01

Each winter, dozens of fatalities occur when intense North Atlantic windstorms impact Western Europe. Forecasting the tracks of these storms in the short term is often problematic, but long term forecasts provide an even greater challenge. Improved prediction necessitates the ability to identify these low pressure areas at formation and understand commonalities that distinguish these storms from other systems crossing the Atlantic, such as where they develop. There is some evidence that indicates the majority of intense windstorms that reach Europe have origins far west, as low pressure systems that develop over the North American continent. This project aims to identify the specific cyclogenesis regions in North America that produce a significantly greater number of dangerous storms. NOAA Ocean Prediction Center surface pressure reanalysis maps are used to examine the tracks of storms. Strong windstorms are characterized by those with a central pressure of less than 965 hPa at any point in their life cycle. Tracks are recorded using a coding system based on source region, storm track and dissipation region. The codes are analyzed to determine which region contains the most statistical significance with respect to strong Atlantic windstorm generation. The resultant set of codes also serves as a climatology of North Atlantic extratropical cyclones. Results indicate that a number of windstorms favor cyclogenesis regions off the east coast of the United States. A large number of strong storms that encounter east coast cyclogenesis zones originate in the central mountain region, around Colorado. These storms follow a path that exits North America around New England and subsequently travel along the Canadian coast. Some of these are then primed to become "bombs" over the open Atlantic Ocean.

Detection Of Tornado Damage Tracks With EOS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Nair, Udaysankar; Haines, Stephanie L.

2005-01-01

The damage surveys conducted by the NWS in the aftermath of a reported tornadic event are used to document the location of the tornado ground damage track (path length and width) and an estimation of the tornado intensity. This study explored the possibility of using near real-time medium and high-resolution satellite imagery from the NASA EOS satellites to provide additional information for the surveys. MODIS and ASTER data were used to study the damage tracks from three tornadic storms; the La Plata, Maryland storm of 28 April 2002 and the Carter-Butler Counties and Madison County Missouri storms of 24 April 2002. These storms varied in intensity (from F0-F4) and occurred over regions with different land use. It was found that, depending on the nature of land use, tornado damage tracks from intense storms (F2 or greater) may be evident in both ASTER and MODIS satellite imagery. In areas of dense vegetation the scar patterns show up very clearly, while in areas of grassland and regions with few trees, scar patterns are not at all obvious in the satellite imagery. The detection of previously unidentified segments of a damage track caused by the 24 April 2004 Madison County, Missouri tornado demonstrates the utility of satellite imagery for damage surveys. However, the capability to detect tornado tracks in satellite imagery appears to be as much dependent on the nature of the underlying surface and land use as on the severity of the tornadic storm. The imaging sensors on the NPOESS operational satellites to be launched in 2006 will continue the unique observing capabilities of the EOS instruments.

Space Storms and Space Weather Hazards

DTIC Science & Technology

2001-06-12

dashed curve is a run where the IMF was switched to northward again at t=50 min. Dipolarization at synchronous orbit sets in about 1 hour after the...years. The Modified Atmospheric Density Model revolutionized orbit tracking by applying intelligent feedback from empirical drag data for satellites in...coefficients for a set of operationally relevant satellites was improved, on average, by 200% and computational variability was greatly dampened. The orbit

Understanding climate variability and global climate change using high-resolution GCM simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xuelei

In this study, three climate processes are examined using long-term simulations from multiple climate models with increasing horizontal resolutions. These simulations include the European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) runs forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SST) (the Athena runs) and a set of coupled ocean-atmosphere seasonal hindcasts (the Minerva runs). Both sets of runs use different AGCM resolutions, the highest at 16 km. A pair of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) simulations with ocean general circulation model (OGCM) resolutions at 100 and 10 km are also examined. The higher resolution CCSM run fully resolves oceanic mesoscale eddies. The resolution influence on the precipitation climatology over the Gulf Stream (GS) region is first investigated. In the Athena simulations, the resolution increase generates enhanced mean GS precipitation moderately in both large-scale and sub-scale rainfalls in the North Atlantic, with the latter more tightly confined near the oceanic front. However, the non-eddy resolving OGCM in the Minerva runs simulates a weaker oceanic front and weakens the mean GS precipitation response. On the other hand, an increase in CCSM oceanic resolutions from non-eddy-resolving to eddy resolving regimes greatly improves the model's GS precipitation climatology, resulting in both stronger intensity and more realistic structure. Further analyses show that the improvement of the GS precipitation climatology due to resolution increases is caused by the enhanced atmospheric response to an increased SST gradient near the oceanic front, which leads to stronger surface convergence and upper level divergence. Another focus of this study is on the global warming impacts on precipitation characteristic changes using the high-resolution Athena simulations under the SST forcing from the observations and a global warming scenario. As a comparison, results from the coarse resolution simulation are also analyzed to examine the dependence on resolution. The increasing rates of globally averaged precipitation amount for the high and low resolution simulations are 1.7%/K-1 and 1.8%/K-1, respectively. The sensitivities for heavy, moderate, light and drizzle rain are 6.8, -1.2, 0.0, 0.2%/K-1 for low and 6.3, -1.5, 0.4, -0.2%/K -1 for high resolution simulations. The number of rainy days decreases in a warming scenario, by 3.4 and 4.2 day/year-1, respectively. The most sensitive response of 6.3-6.8%/K-1 for the heavy rain approaches that of the 7%/K-1 for the Clausius-Clapeyron scaling limit. During the twenty-first century simulation, the increases in precipitation are larger over high latitude and wet regions in low and mid-latitudes. Over the dry regions, such as the subtropics, the precipitation amount and frequency decrease. There is a higher occurrence of low and heavy rain from the tropics to mid-latitudes at the expense of the decreases in the frequency of moderate rain. In the third part, the inter-annual variability of the northern hemisphere storm tracks is examined. In the Athena simulations, the leading modes of the observed storm track variability are reproduced realistically by all runs. In general, the fluctuations of the model storm tracks in the North Pacific and Atlantic basins are largely independent of each other. Within each basin, the variations are characterized by the intensity change near the climatological center and the meridional shift of the storm track location. These two modes are associated with major teleconnection patterns of the low frequency atmospheric variations. These model results are not sensitive to resolution. Using the Minerva hindcast initialized in November, it is shown that a portion of the winter (December-January) storm track variability is predictable, mainly due to the influences of the atmospheric wave trains induced by the El Nino and Southern Oscillation.

16-year Climatology of Cold-Season Extreme Precipitation-Drought Statistics derived from NLDAS Precipitation Data Over the Conterminous U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matsui, T.; Mocko, D. M.

2015-12-01

We examine radar-gauge merged 1/8-degree hourly precipitation data from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) Phase-II datasets from 1997 to 2013. For each 1/8 grid, we derived statistics of single-event storm duration, total accumulated precipitation, and dry period between each storm events during cold (Oct-Mar) seasons, and histogram of event-by-event statistics are used to estimate the thresholds for extreme (below-1%) and very extreme (below-0.1%) events. In this way, we constructed unique climatology maps of the extreme precipitation-drought frequencies and probability density functions. This climatology map depicted that cold-season extremely heavy precipitation events are populated over West Coast, Deep South, and coastal zone of North East, suggesting impacts of land-falling maritime storm systems. Simultaneously, datasets depicts that long-extended precipitation events are mostly populated over North West, and lower Mississippi Basin up to North East centered at Appalachian Mountains, resembling east Pacific storm tracks and nor'easter storm tracks, respectively. Furthermore, season-by-season statistics of these extreme events were examined for each National Climate Assessment (NCA) regimes in comparison with a number of major atmospheric oscillations and teleconnection patterns as well as Arctic Amplifications. Index of Arctic Amplification includes variability of 500mb zonal wind speed and pole-to-midlatitude differences in atmospheric thickness, linking to the phase speed of the Rossby wave. Finally, we present ensemble correlations scores, and discuss the physical processes and underlying mechanisms for their key characteristics as well as the predictive skill and predictability of the extreme events from sub-seasonal to interannual scales during cold seasons.

Tropical Cyclone Activity in the High-Resolution Community Earth System Model and the Impact of Ocean Coupling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Hui; Sriver, Ryan L.

2018-01-01

High-resolution Atmosphere General Circulation Models (AGCMs) are capable of directly simulating realistic tropical cyclone (TC) statistics, providing a promising approach for TC-climate studies. Active air-sea coupling in a coupled model framework is essential to capturing TC-ocean interactions, which can influence TC-climate connections on interannual to decadal time scales. Here we investigate how the choices of ocean coupling can affect the directly simulated TCs using high-resolution configurations of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). We performed a suite of high-resolution, multidecadal, global-scale CESM simulations in which the atmosphere (˜0.25° grid spacing) is configured with three different levels of ocean coupling: prescribed climatological sea surface temperature (SST) (ATM), mixed layer ocean (SLAB), and dynamic ocean (CPL). We find that different levels of ocean coupling can influence simulated TC frequency, geographical distributions, and storm intensity. ATM simulates more storms and higher overall storm intensity than the coupled simulations. It also simulates higher TC track density over the eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic, while TC tracks are relatively sparse within CPL and SLAB for these regions. Storm intensification and the maximum wind speed are sensitive to the representations of local surface flux feedbacks in different coupling configurations. Key differences in storm number and distribution can be attributed to variations in the modeled large-scale climate mean state and variability that arise from the combined effect of intrinsic model biases and air-sea interactions. Results help to improve our understanding about the representation of TCs in high-resolution coupled Earth system models, with important implications for TC-climate applications.

Prediction of Winter Storm Tracks and Intensities Using the GFDL fvGFS Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rees, S.; Boaggio, K.; Marchok, T.; Morin, M.; Lin, S. J.

2017-12-01

The GFDL Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Dynamical core (FV3) is coupled to a modified version of the Global Forecast System (GFS) physics and initial conditions, to form the fvGFS model. This model is similar to the one being implemented as the next-generation operational weather model for the NWS, which is also FV3-powered. Much work has been done to verify fvGFS tropical cyclone prediction, but little has been done to verify winter storm prediction. These costly and dangerous storms impact parts of the U.S. every year. To verify winter storms we ran the NCEP operational cyclone tracker, developed at GFDL, on semi-real-time 13 km horizontal resolution fvGFS forecasts. We have found that fvGFS compares well to the operational GFS in storm track and intensity, though often predicts slightly higher intensities. This presentation will show the track and intensity verification from the past two winter seasons and explore possible reasons for bias.

A numerical study on hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation in Charleston Harbor, South Carolina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, Machuan; Xie, Lian; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

2006-08-01

A storm surge and inundation model is configured in Charleston Harbor and its adjacent coastal region to study the harbor's response to hurricanes. The hydrodynamic component of the modeling system is based on the Princeton Ocean Model, and a scheme with multiple inundation speed options is imbedded in the model for the inundation calculation. Historic observations (Hurricane Hugo and its related storm surge and inundation) in the Charleston Harbor region indicate that among three possible inundation speeds in the model, taking Ct (gd)1/2 (Ct is a terrain-related parameter) as the inundation speed is the best choice. Choosing a different inundation speed in the model has effects not only on inundation area but also on storm surge height. A nesting technique is necessary for the model system to capture the mesoscale feature of a hurricane and meanwhile to maintain a higher horizontal resolution in the harbor region, where details of the storm surge and inundation are required. Hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation are very sensitive to storm tracks. Twelve hurricanes with different tracks are simulated to investigate how Charleston Harbor might respond to tracks that are parallel or perpendicular to the coastline or landfall at Charleston at different angles. Experiments show that large differences of storm surge and inundation may have occurred if Hurricane Hugo had approached Charleston Harbor with a slightly different angle. A hurricane's central pressure, radius of maximum wind, and translation speed have their own complicated effects on surge and inundation when the hurricane approaches the coast on different tracks. Systematic experiments are performed in order to illustrate how each of such factors, or a combination of them, may affect the storm surge height and inundation area in the Charleston Harbor region. Finally, suggestions are given on how this numerical model system may be used for hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation forecasting.

Radar-derived quantitative precipitation estimation in complex terrain over the eastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gou, Yabin; Ma, Yingzhao; Chen, Haonan; Wen, Yixin

2018-05-01

Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) is one of the important applications of weather radars. However, in complex terrain such as Tibetan Plateau, it is a challenging task to obtain an optimal Z-R relation due to the complex spatial and temporal variability in precipitation microphysics. This paper develops two radar QPE schemes respectively based on Reflectivity Threshold (RT) and Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithms using observations from 11 Doppler weather radars and 3264 rain gauges over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP). These two QPE methodologies are evaluated extensively using four precipitation events that are characterized by different meteorological features. Precipitation characteristics of independent storm cells associated with these four events, as well as the storm-scale differences, are investigated using short-term vertical profile of reflectivity (VPR) clusters. Evaluation results show that the SCIT-based rainfall approach performs better than the simple RT-based method for all precipitation events in terms of score comparison using validation gauge measurements as references. It is also found that the SCIT-based approach can effectively mitigate the local error of radar QPE and represent the precipitation spatiotemporal variability better than the RT-based scheme.

Validation Test Report for the Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere MesoscalePrediction System (COAMPS) Version 5.0: Ocean/Wave Component Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-12-31

RED) TC TRACKS ARE SHOWN. CIRCLES ON BOTH TRACKS REPRESENT HOURLY LOCATIONS OF THE STORM CENTERS. ..................................... 18  FIGURE...conditions such as wave boundary conditions, tides, wind, and storm surge. A quasi-stationary approach is used with stationary SWAN computations in a...Tropical Storm Ivan and continued westward south of 10oN becoming a hurricane on 5 September. After entering the southern Gulf of Mexico (GOM

Tropical Cyclones, Hurricanes, and Climate: NASA's Global Cloud-Scale Simulations and New Observations that Characterize the Lifecycle of Hurricanes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Putman, William M.

2010-01-01

One of the primary interests of Global Change research is the impact of climate changes and climate variability on extreme weather events, such as intense tropical storms and hurricanes. Atmospheric climate models run at resolutions of global weather models have been used to study the impact of climate variability, as seen in sea surface temperatures, on the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones. NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, version 5 (GEOS-5) in ensembles run at 50 km resolution has been able to reproduce the interannual variations of tropical cyclone frequency seen in nature. This, and other global models, have found it much more difficult to reproduce the interannual changes in intensity, a result that reflects the inability of the models to simulate the intensities of the most extreme storms. Better representation of the structures of cyclones requires much higher resolution models. Such improved representation is also fundamental to making best use of satellite observations. In collaboration with NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, GEOS-5 now has the capability of running at much higher resolution to better represent cloud-scale resolutions. Global simulations at cloud-permitting resolutions (10- to 3.5-km) allows for the development of realistic tropical cyclones from tropical storm 119 km/hr winds) to category 5 (>249km1hr winds) intensities. GEOS-5 has produced realistic rain-band and eye-wall structures in tropical cyclones that can be directly analyzed against satellite observations. For the first time a global climate model is capable of representing realistic intensity and track variability on a seasonal scale across basins. GEOS-5 is also used in assimilation mode to test the impact of NASA's observations on tropical cyclone forecasts. One such test, for tropical cyclone Nargis in the Indian Ocean in May 2008, showed that observations from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) and the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU-A) on Aqua substantially reduced forecast track errors. Tropical cyclones in the northern Indian Ocean pose serious challenges to operational weather forecasting systems, partly due to their shorter lifespan and more erratic track, compared to those in the Atlantic and the Pacific. SA is also bringing several state of the art instruments in recent field campaigns to peer under the clouds and study the inner workings of the tropical storms. With the Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) experiment, a NASA Earth science field experiment in 2010 that includes the Global Hawk Unmanned Airborne System (UAS) configured with a suite of in situ and remote sensing instruments that are observing and characterizing the lifecycle of hurricanes, we expect significant improvement in our understanding of the track and intensification processes with the assimilation of the satellite and field campaign observations of meteorological parameters in the numerical prediction models.

A Statistical Approach For Modeling Tropical Cyclones. Synthetic Hurricanes Generator Model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pasqualini, Donatella

This manuscript brie y describes a statistical ap- proach to generate synthetic tropical cyclone tracks to be used in risk evaluations. The Synthetic Hur- ricane Generator (SynHurG) model allows model- ing hurricane risk in the United States supporting decision makers and implementations of adaptation strategies to extreme weather. In the literature there are mainly two approaches to model hurricane hazard for risk prediction: deterministic-statistical approaches, where the storm key physical parameters are calculated using physi- cal complex climate models and the tracks are usually determined statistically from historical data; and sta- tistical approaches, where both variables and tracks are estimatedmore » stochastically using historical records. SynHurG falls in the second category adopting a pure stochastic approach.« less

Relationship between the trajectory of mid-latitude cyclones in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the isotopic composition of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasquez, K. T.; Sickman, J. O.; Heard, A.; Lucero, D.

2013-12-01

Diatoms, preserved in lake sediments, provide a potential archive of snowfall variability in the Sierra Nevada through their sensitivity to changes in water chemistry (a proxy for runoff volume) and by recording the isotopic composition of snow-melt (potentially a proxy for sources of atmospheric moisture). In the Sierra Nevada, we hypothesize that the oxygen isotopic composition of diatom silica is principally controlled by snow and that the isotopic composition of snow varies as a function of the tracks of mid-latitude cyclonic storms in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Snow samples from discrete storms were collected from December 2012 to March 2013 at 2042 meters a.s.l. in Sequoia National Park. The δ18O and δ2H values of the snow samples were measured using a temperature-conversion elemental analyzer coupled to a Delta V isotope ratio mass spectrometer. The isotopic measurements were then coupled to 3, 5 and 7-day air mass back trajectories using the NOAA HYSPLIT model. The measured δ18O values ranged from -17.6 to -7.8 per mil and the δ2H ranged from -119.8 to -73.3 per mil. Both δ18O and δ2H were inversely related to the latitude of the storm origin (R^2 values of 0.67 and 0.57, respectively). Winter storms from the Gulf of Alaska were the most isotopically depleted while storms originating in the subtropical/tropical Pacific were the most isotopically enriched, reflecting the overall latitudinal pattern of ocean-water isotope composition in the Pacific Ocean. Our results suggest that the isotopic composition of Sierra Nevada snowfall is influenced by storm track trajectory and this relationship could be useful in interpreting the climatic significance of δ18O of diatom silica preserved in lake cores.

Comparison of Probabilistic Coastal Inundation Maps Based on Historical Storms and Statistically Modeled Storm Ensemble

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Sheng, Y.; Condon, A. J.; Paramygin, V. A.; Hall, T.

2012-12-01

A cost effective method, JPM-OS (Joint Probability Method with Optimal Sampling), for determining storm response and inundation return frequencies was developed and applied to quantify the hazard of hurricane storm surges and inundation along the Southwest FL,US coast (Condon and Sheng 2012). The JPM-OS uses piecewise multivariate regression splines coupled with dimension adaptive sparse grids to enable the generation of a base flood elevation (BFE) map. Storms are characterized by their landfall characteristics (pressure deficit, radius to maximum winds, forward speed, heading, and landfall location) and a sparse grid algorithm determines the optimal set of storm parameter combinations so that the inundation from any other storm parameter combination can be determined. The end result is a sample of a few hundred (197 for SW FL) optimal storms which are simulated using a dynamically coupled storm surge / wave modeling system CH3D-SSMS (Sheng et al. 2010). The limited historical climatology (1940 - 2009) is explored to develop probabilistic characterizations of the five storm parameters. The probability distributions are discretized and the inundation response of all parameter combinations is determined by the interpolation in five-dimensional space of the optimal storms. The surge response and the associated joint probability of the parameter combination is used to determine the flood elevation with a 1% annual probability of occurrence. The limited historical data constrains the accuracy of the PDFs of the hurricane characteristics, which in turn affect the accuracy of the BFE maps calculated. To offset the deficiency of limited historical dataset, this study presents a different method for producing coastal inundation maps. Instead of using the historical storm data, here we adopt 33,731 tracks that can represent the storm climatology in North Atlantic basin and SW Florida coasts. This large quantity of hurricane tracks is generated from a new statistical model which had been used for Western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) genesis (Hall 2011) as well as North Atlantic tropical cyclone genesis (Hall and Jewson 2007). The introduction of these tracks complements the shortage of the historical samples and allows for more reliable PDFs required for implementation of JPM-OS. Using the 33,731 tracks and JPM-OS, an optimal storm ensemble is determined. This approach results in different storms/winds for storm surge and inundation modeling, and produces different Base Flood Elevation maps for coastal regions. Coastal inundation maps produced by the two different methods will be discussed in detail in the poster paper.

Extreme storm activity in North Atlantic and European region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vyazilova, N.

2010-09-01

The extreme storm activity study over North Atlantic and Europe includes the analyses of extreme cyclone (track number, integral cyclonic intensity) and extreme storm (track number) during winter and summer seasons in the regions: 1) 55°N-80N, 50°W-70°E; 2) 30°N-55°N, 50°W-70°E. Extreme cyclones were selected based on cyclone centre pressure (P<=970 mbar). Extreme storms were selected from extreme cyclones based on wind velocity on 925 mbar. The Bofort scala was used for this goal. Integral cyclonic intensity (for region) includes the calculation cyclone centers number and sum of MSLP anomalies in cyclone centers. The analyses based on automated cyclone tracking algorithm, 6-hourly MSLP and wind data (u and v on 925 gPa) from the NCEP/NCAR reanalyses from January 1948 to March 2010. The comparision of mean, calculated for every ten years, had shown, that in polar region extreme cyclone and storm track number, and integral cyclonic intensity gradually increases and have maximum during last years (as for summer, as for winter season). Every ten years means for summer season are more then for winter season, as for polar, as for tropical region. Means (ten years) for tropical region are significance less then for polar region.

Regional Differences in Tropical Lightning Distributions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boccippio, Dennis J.; Goodman, Steven J.; Heckman, Stan

2000-12-01

Observations from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Optical Transient Detector (OTD) and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-based Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) are analyzed for variability between land and ocean, various geographic regions, and different (objectively defined) convective `regimes.' The bulk of the order-of-magnitude differences between land and ocean regional flash rates are accounted for by differences in storm spacing (density) and/or frequency of occurrence, rather than differences in storm instantaneous flash rates, which only vary by a factor of 2 on average. Regional variability in cell density and cell flash rates closely tracks differences in 85-GHz microwave brightness temperatures. Monotonic relationships are found with the gross moist stability of the tropical atmosphere, a large-scale `adjusted state' parameter. This result strongly suggests that it will be possible, using TRMM observations, to objectively test numerical or theoretical predictions of how mesoscale convective organization interacts with the larger-scale environment. Further parameters are suggested for a complete objective definition of tropical convective regimes.

The roles of static stability and tropical-extratropical interactions in the summer interannual variability of the North Atlantic sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbengue, Cheikh Oumar; Woollings, Tim; Dacre, Helen F.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2018-04-01

Summer seasonal forecast skill in the North Atlantic sector is lower than winter skill. To identify potential controls on predictability, the sensitivity of North Atlantic baroclinicity to atmospheric drivers is quantified. Using ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data, North Atlantic storm-track baroclinicity is shown to be less sensitive to meridional temperature-gradient variability in summer. Static stability shapes the sector's interannual variability by modulating the sensitivity of baroclinicity to variations in meridional temperature gradients and tropopause height and by modifying the baroclinicity itself. High static stability anomalies at upper levels result in more zonal extratropical cyclone tracks and higher eddy kinetic energy over the British Isles in the summertime. These static stability anomalies are not strongly related to the summer NAO; but they are correlated with the suppression of convection over the tropical Atlantic and with a poleward-shifted subtropical jet. These results suggest a non-local driver of North Atlantic variability. Furthermore, they imply that improved representations of convection over the south-eastern part of North America and the tropical Atlantic might improve summer seasonal forecast skill.

Intercomparison of mid latitude storm diagnostics (IMILAST) - synthesis of project results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neu, Urs

2017-04-01

The analysis of the occurrence of mid-latitude storms is of great socio-economical interest due to their vast and destructive impacts. However, a unique definition of cyclones is missing, and therefore the definition of what a cyclone is as well as quantifying its strength contains subjective choices. Existing automatic cyclone identification and tracking algorithms are based on different definitions and use diverse characteristics, e.g. data transformation, metrics used for cyclone identification, cyclone identification procedures or tracking methods. The project IMILAST systematically compares different cyclone detection and tracking methods, with the aim to comprehensively assess the influence of different algorithms on cyclone climatologies, temporal trends of frequency, strength or other characteristics of cyclones and thus quantify systematic uncertainties in mid-latitudinal storm identification and tracking. The three main intercomparison experiments used the ERA-interim reanalysis as a common input data set and focused on differences between the methods with respect to number, track density, life cycle characteristics, and trend patterns on the one hand and potential differences of the long-term climate change signal of cyclonic activity between the methods on the other hand. For the third experiment, the intercomparison period has been extended to a 30 year period from 1979 to 2009 and focuses on more specific aspects, such as parameter sensitivities, the comparison of automated to manual tracking sets, regional analysis (regional trends, Arctic and Antarctic cyclones, cyclones in the Mediterranean) or specific phenomena like splitting and merging of cyclones. In addition, the representation of storms and their characteristics in reanalysis data sets is examined to further enhance the knowledge on uncertainties related to storm occurrence. This poster presents a synthesis of the main results from the intercomparison activities within IMILAST.

Dependence of winter precipitation over Portugal on NAO and baroclinic wave activity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ulbrich, U.; Christoph, M.; Pinto, J. G.; Corte-Real, J.

1999-03-01

The relationship between winter (DJF) rainfall over Portugal and the variable large scale circulation is addressed. It is shown that the poles of the sea level pressure (SLP) field variability associated with rainfall variability are shifted about 15° northward with respect to those used in standard definitions of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). It is suggested that the influence of NAO on rainfall dominantly arises from the associated advection of humidity from the Atlantic Ocean. Rainfall is also related to different aspects of baroclinic wave activity, the variability of the latter quantity in turn being largely dependent on the NAO.A negative NAO index (leading to increased westerly surface geostrophic winds into Portugal) is associated with an increased number of deep (ps<980 hPa) surface lows over the central North Atlantic and of intermediate (980

The Severe Weather Outbreak of 10 November 2002: Lightning and Radar Analysis of Storms in the Deep South

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Buechler, D. E.; McCaul, E. W., Jr.; Goodman, S. J.; Blakeslee, R. J.; Bailey, J. C.; Gatlin, P.

2004-01-01

On the afternoon and evening of 10 November 2002, the Midwest and Deep South were struck by a major outbreak of severe storms that produced some 80 tornadoes. In terms of number of tornadoes, this was the largest outbreak in the United States since November 1992. Some 32 of the tornadoes occurred in Tennessee, Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, including several long-track killers. We use the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) and other data sources to perform a comprehensive analysis of the structure and evolution of the outbreak. Most of the Southern tornadoes occurred in isolated, fast-moving supercell storms that formed in warm, moist air ahead of a major cold front. Storms tended to form in lines parallel to storm cell motion, resulting in many communities being hit multiple times by severe storms that evening. Supercells in Tennessee produced numerous strong tornadoes with short to medium-length track paths, while the supercells further south produced several very long-track tornadoes. Radar data indicate that the Tennessee storms tended to split frequently, apparently limiting their ability to sustain long-lived tornadoes, while storms further south split at most one time. The differences between these storms appear to be related to the presence of stronger jetstream winds in Tennessee relative to those present in Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia. LMA-derived flash rates associated with most of the supercell storm cores were about 1-2 flashes per second. Rapid increases in lightning rates (or "jumps") occurred prior to tornado touchdown in many instances. Lightning "holes" (lightning-free regions associated with the echo-free vault) occurred in two of the Tennessee supercells. The complexity of the relationship between lightning and storm severity is revealed by the behavior of one Alabama supercell, which produced a peak flash rate of nearly 14 flashes per second, well after the end of its long-track tornado, while interacting and ultimately merging with a daughter supercell on its southwest flank. Close examination of this powerful storm indicates that its prodigious flash rate was the result of strong flash activity over an unusually large area, rather than a concentrated core of extremely high flash rate activity.

Decadal-to-centennial-scale climate variability: Insights into the rise and fall of the Great Salt Lake

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mann, Michael E.; Lall, Upmanu; Saltzman, Barry

1995-01-01

We demonstrate connections between decadal and secular global climatic variations, and historical variations in the volume of the Great Salt Lake. The decadal variations correspond to a low-frequency shifting of storm tracks which influence winter precipitation and explain nearly 18% of the interannual and longer-term variance in the record of monthly volume change. The secular trend accounts for a more modest approximately 1.5% of the variance.

Precipitation Cluster Distributions: Current Climate Storm Statistics and Projected Changes Under Global Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quinn, Kevin Martin

The total amount of precipitation integrated across a precipitation cluster (contiguous precipitating grid cells exceeding a minimum rain rate) is a useful measure of the aggregate size of the disturbance, expressed as the rate of water mass lost or latent heat released, i.e. the power of the disturbance. Probability distributions of cluster power are examined during boreal summer (May-September) and winter (January-March) using satellite-retrieved rain rates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and Special Sensor Microwave Imager and Sounder (SSM/I and SSMIS) programs, model output from the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HIRAM, roughly 0.25-0.5 0 resolution), seven 1-2° resolution members of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment, and National Center for Atmospheric Research Large Ensemble (NCAR LENS). Spatial distributions of precipitation-weighted centroids are also investigated in observations (TRMM-3B42) and climate models during winter as a metric for changes in mid-latitude storm tracks. Observed probability distributions for both seasons are scale-free from the smallest clusters up to a cutoff scale at high cluster power, after which the probability density drops rapidly. When low rain rates are excluded by choosing a minimum rain rate threshold in defining clusters, the models accurately reproduce observed cluster power statistics and winter storm tracks. Changes in behavior in the tail of the distribution, above the cutoff, are important for impacts since these quantify the frequency of the most powerful storms. End-of-century cluster power distributions and storm track locations are investigated in these models under a "business as usual" global warming scenario. The probability of high cluster power events increases by end-of-century across all models, by up to an order of magnitude for the highest-power events for which statistics can be computed. For the three models in the suite with continuous time series of high resolution output, there is substantial variability on when these probability increases for the most powerful precipitation clusters become detectable, ranging from detectable within the observational period to statistically significant trends emerging only after 2050. A similar analysis of National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis 2 and SSM/I-SSMIS rain rate retrievals in the recent observational record does not yield reliable evidence of trends in high-power cluster probabilities at this time. Large impacts to mid-latitude storm tracks are projected over the West Coast and eastern North America, with no less than 8 of the 9 models examined showing large increases by end-of-century in the probability density of the most powerful storms, ranging up to a factor of 6.5 in the highest range bin for which historical statistics are computed. However, within these regional domains, there is considerable variation among models in pinpointing exactly where the largest increases will occur.

Impact of Short Interval SMS Digital Data on Wind Vector Determination for a Severe Local Storms Area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peslen, C. A.

1979-01-01

The impact of 5 minute interval SMS-2 visible digital image data in analyzing severe local storms is examined using wind vectors derived from cloud tracking on time lapsed sequence of geosynchronous satellite images. The cloud tracking areas are located in the Central Plains, where on 6 May 1975, hail-producing thunderstorms occurred ahead of a well defined dry line. The results demonstrate that satellite-derived wind vectors and their associated divergence fields complement conventional meteorological analyses in describing the conditions preceding severe local storm development.

An Investigation of Dust Storms Observed with the Mars Color Imager

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guzewich, Scott D.; Toigo, Anthony D.; Wang, Huiqun

2017-01-01

Daily global imaging by the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) continues the record of the Mars Orbiter Camera (MOC) and has allowed creation of a long-duration record of Martian dust storms. We observe dust storms over the first two Mars years of the MARCI record, including tracking individual storms over multiple sols, as well as tracking the growth and recession of the seasonal polar caps. Using the combined 6 Mars year record of textured dust storms (storms with visible textures on the observed dust cloud tops), we study the relationship between textured dust storm activity and meteorology (as simulated by the MarsWRF general circulation model) and surface properties. We find that textured dust storms preferentially occur in places and seasons with above average surface wind stress. Textured dust storm occurrence also has a modest linear anti-correlation with surface albedo (0.43) and topography (0.40). Lastly, we perform an empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the distribution of occurrence of textured dust storms and find that over 50 of the variance in textured dust storm activity can be explained by two EOF modes. We associate the first EOF mode with cap-edge storms just before Ls = 180deg and the second EOF mode with flushing dust storms that occur from Ls = 180-210deg and again near Ls = 320deg.

Circulation patterns and wave climate along the coast of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rasilla Álvarez, D.; García Codrán, J. C.

2010-09-01

Evidences of an active erosion (beach retreat, falling cliffs, damaged infrastructures) are observed in many coastal areas around the Iberian Peninsula. Morphogenetic coastal processes result from individual episodes of storminess that can accelerate or mitigate the expected impacts of the global rising trend of average sea levels. Thus, a good understanding of the local forcing processes is required in order to assess the impacts of future sea levels. The spatial and temporal variability of the wave climate along the cost of the Iberian Peninsula and their relationships with regional scale circulation patterns and local-scale winds are the main objectives of this contribution. The oceanographic data set consists of observed hourly data from 7 buoys disseminated along the Spanish coastline, and hindcasted 3-hourly analogous parameters (SIMAR 44 database), provided by Puertos del Estado. Sea level pressure, surface 10m U and V wind components gridded data were obtained from NCEP Reanalysis, while storm tracks and cyclone statistics were extracted from the CDC Map Room Climate Products Storm Track Data (http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/clim/st_data.html). The influence of the local conditions was highlighted comparing meteorological data from the buoys and synop reports from coastal stations. To explore the regional atmospheric mechanisms responsible for the wave variability, a regional Eulerian approach (a synoptic typing) were combined with a larger-scale Lagrangian method, based on the analysis of storm-tracks over the area. The synoptic catalogue was obtained following a well-known procedure that combines Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for reduction purposes and clustering (Ward plus K-means) to define the circulation types. As expected, rougher wave climate are observed along the northern and western coast of the Iberian Peninsula, open to the Atlantic storms. The Mediterranean shorelines experiences calmer conditions, although the Gulf of Lions, Catalonian coast and Balearic Islands suffer stormier episodes than Mar de Alborán. Moderate wave power conditions occurred frequently by circulation patterns predominately stable and characterized by weak (mostly sea breezes) winds. Synoptic situations dominated by extra-tropical cyclones produced the highest, but least frequent wave power conditions. Depending on the location of the shorelines, three types of storm events are defined: 1. Long winds fetch and locally strong westerly and northwesterly winds expose the northern coast of Iberia to episodes of intense storminess. Extratropical disturbances tracking between the 50-60°N parallels are the main forcing mechanism of those episodes, many of them result of a cyclogenesis processes along the eastern coast of North America. In some cases, the systems evolves as a secondary cyclon, crossing the area southward of the 50°N parallel; significant wave heights can be as high as the northernmost cyclones, but the wave period is slightly lower. 2.Cyclones tracking along the 40°N parallel bring stormy conditions to the western coast and the Gulf of Cádiz area, associated to southwesterly winds. 3. Finally, the Mediterranean shoreline suffer the worst conditions during easterly and northeasterly wind events, usually dominanted by local disturbances formed along the Western Mediterranean basin. Trends observed on the different circulation patterns can explain the temporal evolution of the wave climate along the Spanish coast, characterized by calmer conditions on the south and an increase of the wave period on the north, without discernible wave height trend. The overall results indicated that this synoptic climatological approach provides a viable framework to establish and examine links between weather systems and wave conditions.

Radar-derived Quantitative Precipitation Estimation in Complex Terrain over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gou, Y.

2017-12-01

Quantitative Precipitation Estimation (QPE) is one of the important applications of weather radars. However, in complex terrain such as Tibetan Plateau, it is a challenging task to obtain an optimal Z-R relation due to the complex space time variability in precipitation microphysics. This paper develops two radar QPE schemes respectively based on Reflectivity Threshold (RT) and Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithms using observations from 11 Doppler weather radars and 3294 rain gauges over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau (ETP). These two QPE methodologies are evaluated extensively using four precipitation events that are characterized by different meteorological features. Precipitation characteristics of independent storm cells associated with these four events, as well as the storm-scale differences, are investigated using short-term vertical profiles of reflectivity clusters. Evaluation results show that the SCIT-based rainfall approach performs better than the simple RT-based method in all precipitation events in terms of score comparison using validation gauge measurements as references, with higher correlation (than 75.74%), lower mean absolute error (than 82.38%) and root-mean-square error (than 89.04%) of all the comparative frames. It is also found that the SCIT-based approach can effectively mitigate the radar QPE local error and represent precipitation spatiotemporal variability better than RT-based scheme.

The 2008 Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak: Overview of the Tornadoes and their Parent Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Knupp, Kevin R.; Coleman, Tim; Carey, Larry; Petersen, Walt

2008-01-01

The cold-season Tornado outbreak that occurred over the Southeast on 5-6 February 2008 was significant for the following reasons: about 84 tornadoes were documented over a 15 h period between late afternoon on 5 February and early morning on 6 February 2008; a wide variety of parent storms were associated with the tornadoes; a total of five EF-4 tornadoes occurred, with two forming over Alabama during the early morning hours prior to sunrise; there was a significant lull period between the initial convective and the early morning activity over Alabama 10 hours later; and, a wide spectrum of storm types, ranging from isolated supercell storms to QLCS bow echoes, accompanied the tornadoes. The goal of this paper is to provide a general description of the outbreak including the distribution of tornadoes and supercell storms over the region, a detailed map of the tornado tracks, time series of tornadoes and parent storms, and general characteristics of all parent tornado storms. The total number of major storms (duration greater than 3 h, at least three tornadoes produced) was seven. Several noteworthy storms are described: a long track (198 km long) tornado and its parent storm over Arkansas; a prolific supercell storm persisted for 7-8 hours and produced 16 tornadoes from north-central Mississippi to southern KY; and, bow echo storms (QLCS's) were simultaneous over KY and produced 16 tornadoes.

An automated and integrated framework for dust storm detection based on ogc web processing services

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xiao, F.; Shea, G. Y. K.; Wong, M. S.; Campbell, J.

2014-11-01

Dust storms are known to have adverse effects on public health. Atmospheric dust loading is also one of the major uncertainties in global climatic modelling as it is known to have a significant impact on the radiation budget and atmospheric stability. The complexity of building scientific dust storm models is coupled with the scientific computation advancement, ongoing computing platform development, and the development of heterogeneous Earth Observation (EO) networks. It is a challenging task to develop an integrated and automated scheme for dust storm detection that combines Geo-Processing frameworks, scientific models and EO data together to enable the dust storm detection and tracking processes in a dynamic and timely manner. This study develops an automated and integrated framework for dust storm detection and tracking based on the Web Processing Services (WPS) initiated by Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The presented WPS framework consists of EO data retrieval components, dust storm detecting and tracking component, and service chain orchestration engine. The EO data processing component is implemented based on OPeNDAP standard. The dust storm detecting and tracking component combines three earth scientific models, which are SBDART model (for computing aerosol optical depth (AOT) of dust particles), WRF model (for simulating meteorological parameters) and HYSPLIT model (for simulating the dust storm transport processes). The service chain orchestration engine is implemented based on Business Process Execution Language for Web Service (BPEL4WS) using open-source software. The output results, including horizontal and vertical AOT distribution of dust particles as well as their transport paths, were represented using KML/XML and displayed in Google Earth. A serious dust storm, which occurred over East Asia from 26 to 28 Apr 2012, is used to test the applicability of the proposed WPS framework. Our aim here is to solve a specific instance of a complex EO data and scientific model integration problem by using a framework and scientific workflow approach together. The experimental result shows that this newly automated and integrated framework can be used to give advance near real-time warning of dust storms, for both environmental authorities and public. The methods presented in this paper might be also generalized to other types of Earth system models, leading to improved ease of use and flexibility.

Dynamical variability in Saturn Equatorial Atmosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sánchez-Lavega, A.; Pérez-Hoyos, S.; Hueso, R.; Rojas, J. F.; French, R. G.; Grupo Ciencias Planetarias Team

2003-05-01

Historical ground-based and recent HST observations show that Saturn's Equatorial Atmosphere is the region where the most intense large-scale dynamical variability took place at cloud level in the planet. Large-scale convective storms (nicknamed the ``Great White Spots") occurred in 1876, 1933 and 1990. The best studied case (the 1990 storm), produced a dramatic change in the cloud aspect in the years following the outburst of September 1990. Subsequently, a new large storm formed in 1994 and from 1996 to 2002 our HST observations showed periods of unusual cloud activity in the southern part of the Equator. This contrast with the aspect observed during the Voyager 1 and 2 encounters in 1980 and 1981 when the Equator was calm, except for some mid-scale plume-like features seen in 1981. Cloud-tracking of the features have revealed a dramatic slow down in the equatorial winds from maximum velocities of ˜ 475 m/s in 1980-1981 to ˜ 275 m/s during 1996-2002, as we have recently reported in Nature, Vol. 423, 623 (2003). We discuss the possibility that seasonal and ring-shadowing effects are involved in generating this activity and variability. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Spanish MCYT PNAYA 2000-0932. SPH acknowledges a PhD fellowship from the Spanish MECD and RH a post-doc fellowship from Gobierno Vasco. RGF was supported in part by NASA's Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program NAG5-10197 and STSCI Grant GO-08660.01A.

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schemm, J. E.; Long, L.; Baxter, S.

2013-12-01

Evaluation of the NCEP CFSv2 45-day Forecasts for Predictability of Intraseasonal Tropical Storm Activities Jae-Kyung E. Schemm, Lindsey Long and Stephen Baxter Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA Predictability of intraseasonal tropical storm (TS) activities is assessed using the 1999-2010 CFSv2 hindcast suite. Weekly TS activities in the CFSv2 45-day forecasts were determined using the TS detection and tracking method devised by Carmago and Zebiak (2002). The forecast periods are divided into weekly intervals for Week 1 through Week 6, and also the 30-day mean. The TS activities in those intervals are compared to the observed activities based on the NHC HURDAT and JTWC Best Track datasets. The CFSv2 45-day hindcast suite is made of forecast runs initialized at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z every day during the 1999 - 2010 period. For predictability evaluation, forecast TS activities are analyzed based on 20-member ensemble forecasts comprised of 45-day runs made during the most recent 5 days prior to the verification period. The forecast TS activities are evaluated in terms of the number of storms, genesis locations and storm tracks during the weekly periods. The CFSv2 forecasts are shown to have a fair level of skill in predicting the number of storms over the Atlantic Basin with the temporal correlation scores ranging from 0.73 for Week 1 forecasts to 0.63 for Week 6, and the average RMS errors ranging from 0.86 to 1.07 during the 1999-2010 hurricane season. Also, the forecast track density distribution and false alarm statistics are compiled using the hindcast analyses. In real-time applications of the intraseasonal TS activity forecasts, the climatological TS forecast statistics will be used to make the model bias corrections in terms of the storm counts, track distribution and removal of false alarms. An operational implementation of the weekly TS activity prediction is planned for early 2014 to provide an objective input for the CPC's Global Tropical Hazards Outlooks.

Simulated shifts in the mid-latitude storm tracks over the western US detected through isotopes in precipitation and vapor

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buenning, N. H.; Stott, L. D.; Kanner, L.; Yoshimura, K.

2013-12-01

One of the most robust features of climate model projections for the 21st century includes a poleward shift of middle latitude storm tracks in response to enhanced radiative forcing. This study evaluates how shifts in the middle latitude storm tracks over the North Pacific has been expressed in the stable isotopic composition of atmospheric vapor and precipitation in the past 60 years. Previous work has demonstrated how the isotopic composition of precipitation (δ18Op) in the Pacific Northwest and in atmospheric vapor (δ18Ov) across the western US reflects the large-scale atmospheric circulation. Thus, it is possible to use the isotopic composition of water in these regions to detect shifts in mid-latitude storm tracks. Results from the Isotope-incorporated Global Spectral Model (IsoGSM) are presented to better understand the recent low frequency variations in δ18O values over the western US. The IsoGSM simulations presented here were spectrally nudged every six hours to the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis wind and temperature fields. The spectral nudging technique allows for realistic isotopic simulations that are consistent with observed large-scale mid-latitude storm systems. Model results suggest that δ18Op has risen over the Pacific Northwest and δ18Ov has increased across the western US since the 1950s (see Figure), an indication of more moisture advection from the tropics and less moisture transported from the middle latitudes. Water tagging simulations reveal that as δ18Ov increased in the western US, the fraction of vapor from the subtropics had also increased, while the fraction from the middle latitudes had decreased. Similarly, the tagging simulations resulted in increased subtropical precipitation falling in the Pacific Northwest and decreased precipitation from the middle latitudes. These model simulations suggest that a northward shift in storm tracks has already taken place over the last 60 years in the western US. Furthermore, the results underscore the potential of using isotopes in vapor and precipitation in certain regions of western North America to monitor middle latitude storm behavior as the climate warms.

The observed clustering of damaging extra-tropical cyclones in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusack, S.

2015-12-01

The clustering of severe European windstorms on annual timescales has substantial impacts on the re/insurance industry. Management of the risk is impaired by large uncertainties in estimates of clustering from historical storm datasets typically covering the past few decades. The uncertainties are unusually large because clustering depends on the variance of storm counts. Eight storm datasets are gathered for analysis in this study in order to reduce these uncertainties. Six of the datasets contain more than 100~years of severe storm information to reduce sampling errors, and the diversity of information sources and analysis methods between datasets sample observational errors. All storm severity measures used in this study reflect damage, to suit re/insurance applications. It is found that the shortest storm dataset of 42 years in length provides estimates of clustering with very large sampling and observational errors. The dataset does provide some useful information: indications of stronger clustering for more severe storms, particularly for southern countries off the main storm track. However, substantially different results are produced by removal of one stormy season, 1989/1990, which illustrates the large uncertainties from a 42-year dataset. The extended storm records place 1989/1990 into a much longer historical context to produce more robust estimates of clustering. All the extended storm datasets show a greater degree of clustering with increasing storm severity and suggest clustering of severe storms is much more material than weaker storms. Further, they contain signs of stronger clustering in areas off the main storm track, and weaker clustering for smaller-sized areas, though these signals are smaller than uncertainties in actual values. Both the improvement of existing storm records and development of new historical storm datasets would help to improve management of this risk.

Influence of prolonged Anomalies in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature on Winter Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Schuster, Mareike; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

The focus of this presentation is on decadal scale variations in the frequency and in the intensity of mid-latitude winter windstorms. Projections for the end of the next century are often beyond the time horizon of business, thus there is an increasing interest on decadal prediction, especially for infrastructural planning and in the insurance industry. One source of decadal predictability is the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), a change in the sea surface temperature of the North Atlantic, strongly linked to the meridional overturning circulation. Correlation patterns between annual AMV-indices and annual mean of geopotential height at 500 hPa in reanalysis data show an anti-correlation in the North Atlantic. That is, during AMV warm phases the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is more negative. Consequently, AMV should influence the characteristics of winter windstorms at multi-year scales. For the presented investigations a 10-member ensemble of 38-year-long idealized simulations with the atmosphere model ECHAM6 with lower boundary conditions, representing warm and cool phases of the AMV, is used. In the idealized simulations, the anti-correlation between AMV and NAO is well represented. For the identification of winter windstorms an objective wind tracking algorithm based on the exceedance of the local 98th percentile of 10m wind speed is applied. Storms under AMV-warm and AMV-cool conditions will be compared in terms of storm track density and probability distribution of storm characteristics.

Using recent hurricanes and associated event layers to evaluate regional storm impacts on estuarine-wetland systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. G.; Marot, M. E.; Osterman, L. E.; Adams, C. S.; Haller, C.; Jones, M.

2016-12-01

Tropical cyclones are a major driver of change in coastal and estuarine environments. Heightened waves and sea level associated with tropical cyclones act to erode sediment from one environment and redistribute it to adjacent environments. The fate and transport of this redistributed material is of great importance to the long-term sediment budget, which in turns affects the vulnerability of these coastal systems. The spatial variance in both storm impacts and sediment redistribution is large. At the regional-scale, difference in storm impacts can often be attributed to natural variability in geologic parameters (sediment availability/erodibility), coastal geomorphology (including fetch, shoreline tortuosity, back-barrier versus estuarine shoreline, etc.), storm characteristics (intensity, duration, track/approach), and ecology (vegetation type, gradient, density). To assess storm characteristics and coastal geomorphology on a regional-scale, cores were collected from seven Juncus marshes located in coastal regions of Alabama and Mississippi (i.e., Mobile Bay, Bon Secour Bay, Mississippi Sound, and Grand Bay) expected to have been impacted by Hurricane Frederic (1979). All cores were sectioned and processed for water content, organic matter (loss-on-ignition), and select cores analyzed for foraminiferal assemblages, stable isotopes and bulk metals to aid in the identification of storm events. Excess lead-210 and cesium-137 were used to develop chronologies for the cores and evaluate mass accumulation rates and sedimentation rates. Temporal variations in accumulation rates of inorganic and organic sediments were compared with shoreline and areal change rates derived from historic aerial imagery to evaluate potential changes in sediment exchange prior to, during, and following the storm. A combined geospatial and geologic approach will improve our understanding of coastal change in estuarine marsh environments, as well help refine the influence of storms on regional sediment budgets.

Validation of satellite-based CI detection of convective storms via backward trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dietzsch, Felix; Senf, Fabian; Deneke, Hartwig

2013-04-01

Within this study, the rapid development and evolution of several severe convective events is investigated based on geostationary satellite images, and is related to previous findings on suitable detection thresholds for convective initiation. Nine severe events have been selected that occurred over Central Europe in summer 2012, and have been classified into the categories supercell, mesoscale convective system, frontal system and orographic convection. The cases are traced backward starting from the fully developed convective systems to its very beginning initial state using ECMWF data with 0.5 degree spatial resolution and 3h temporal resolution. For every case the storm life cycle was quantified through the storm's infrared (IR) brightness temperatures obtained from Meteosat Second Generation SEVIRI with 5 min temporal resolution and 4.5 km spatial resolution. In addition, cloud products including cloud optical thickness, cloud phase and effective droplet radius have been taken into account. A semi-automatic adjustment of the tracks within a search box was necessary to improve the tracking accuracy and thus the quality of the derived life-cycles. The combination of IR brightness temperatures, IR temperature time trends and satellite-based cloud products revealed different stages of storm development such as updraft intensification and glaciation well in most casesconfirming previously developed CI criteria from other studies. The vertical temperature gradient between 850 and 500 hPa, the Total-Totals-Index and the storm-relative helicity have been derived from ECMWF data and were used to characterize the storm synoptic environment. The results suggest that the storm-relative helicity also influences the life time of convective storms over Central Europe confirming previous studies. Tracking accuracy has shown to be a crucial issue in our study and a fully automated approach is required to enlarge the number of cases for significant statistics.

Predicting the trajectories and intensities of hurricanes by applying machine learning techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sujithkumar, A.; King, A. W.; Kovilakam, M.; Graves, D.

2017-12-01

The world has witnessed an escalation of devastating hurricanes and tropical cyclones over the last three decades. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones of very high magnitude will likely be even more frequent in a warmer world. Thus, precise forecasting of the track and intensity of hurricane/tropical cyclones remains one of the meteorological community's top priorities. However, comprehensive prediction of hurricane/ tropical cyclone is a difficult problem due to the many complexities of underlying physical processes with many variables and complex relations. The availability of global meteorological and hurricane/tropical storm climatological data opens new opportunities for data-driven approaches to hurricane/tropical cyclone modeling. Here we report initial results from two data-driven machine learning techniques, specifically, random forest (RF) and Bayesian learning (BL) to predict the trajectory and intensity of hurricanes and tropical cyclones. We used International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) data along with weather data from NOAA in a 50 km buffer surrounding each of the reported hurricane and tropical cyclone tracts to train the model. Initial results reveal that both RF and BL are skillful in predicting storm intensity. We will also present results for the more complicated trajectory prediction.

Automated Storm Tracking and the Lightning Jump Algorithm Using GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy Data.

PubMed

Schultz, Elise V; Schultz, Christopher J; Carey, Lawrence D; Cecil, Daniel J; Bateman, Monte

2016-01-01

This study develops a fully automated lightning jump system encompassing objective storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data, and the lightning jump algorithm (LJA), which are important elements in the transition of the LJA concept from a research to an operational based algorithm. Storm cluster tracking is based on a product created from the combination of a radar parameter (vertically integrated liquid, VIL), and lightning information (flash rate density). Evaluations showed that the spatial scale of tracked features or storm clusters had a large impact on the lightning jump system performance, where increasing spatial scale size resulted in decreased dynamic range of the system's performance. This framework will also serve as a means to refine the LJA itself to enhance its operational applicability. Parameters within the system are isolated and the system's performance is evaluated with adjustments to parameter sensitivity. The system's performance is evaluated using the probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) statistics. Of the algorithm parameters tested, sigma-level (metric of lightning jump strength) and flash rate threshold influenced the system's performance the most. Finally, verification methodologies are investigated. It is discovered that minor changes in verification methodology can dramatically impact the evaluation of the lightning jump system.

Automated Storm Tracking and the Lightning Jump Algorithm Using GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schultz, Elise; Schultz, Christopher Joseph; Carey, Lawrence D.; Cecil, Daniel J.; Bateman, Monte

2016-01-01

This study develops a fully automated lightning jump system encompassing objective storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data, and the lightning jump algorithm (LJA), which are important elements in the transition of the LJA concept from a research to an operational based algorithm. Storm cluster tracking is based on a product created from the combination of a radar parameter (vertically integrated liquid, VIL), and lightning information (flash rate density). Evaluations showed that the spatial scale of tracked features or storm clusters had a large impact on the lightning jump system performance, where increasing spatial scale size resulted in decreased dynamic range of the system's performance. This framework will also serve as a means to refine the LJA itself to enhance its operational applicability. Parameters within the system are isolated and the system's performance is evaluated with adjustments to parameter sensitivity. The system's performance is evaluated using the probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) statistics. Of the algorithm parameters tested, sigma-level (metric of lightning jump strength) and flash rate threshold influenced the system's performance the most. Finally, verification methodologies are investigated. It is discovered that minor changes in verification methodology can dramatically impact the evaluation of the lightning jump system.

Automated Storm Tracking and the Lightning Jump Algorithm Using GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) Proxy Data

PubMed Central

SCHULTZ, ELISE V.; SCHULTZ, CHRISTOPHER J.; CAREY, LAWRENCE D.; CECIL, DANIEL J.; BATEMAN, MONTE

2017-01-01

This study develops a fully automated lightning jump system encompassing objective storm tracking, Geostationary Lightning Mapper proxy data, and the lightning jump algorithm (LJA), which are important elements in the transition of the LJA concept from a research to an operational based algorithm. Storm cluster tracking is based on a product created from the combination of a radar parameter (vertically integrated liquid, VIL), and lightning information (flash rate density). Evaluations showed that the spatial scale of tracked features or storm clusters had a large impact on the lightning jump system performance, where increasing spatial scale size resulted in decreased dynamic range of the system’s performance. This framework will also serve as a means to refine the LJA itself to enhance its operational applicability. Parameters within the system are isolated and the system’s performance is evaluated with adjustments to parameter sensitivity. The system’s performance is evaluated using the probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR) statistics. Of the algorithm parameters tested, sigma-level (metric of lightning jump strength) and flash rate threshold influenced the system’s performance the most. Finally, verification methodologies are investigated. It is discovered that minor changes in verification methodology can dramatically impact the evaluation of the lightning jump system. PMID:29303164

Modulation of MJO-Associated North Pacific Storm Track Variation by the QBO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, J.; Kim, H. M.; Chang, E. K. M.; Son, S. W.

2017-12-01

The North Pacific storm track (NPST) is a preferred region of extratropical synoptic-scale disturbances which plays a critical role in the mid-latitude weather and climate variability during the cool season (October to March). Extreme precipitation, heat/cold events, and sub-seasonal variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are found to be caused/modulated by the NPST. Thus investigating the variability of the NPST and the possible precursors for its variation is an important field of research. The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant intraseasonal mode in the tropics. A teleconnection between the MJO and the NPST has been realized recently. However, the MJO-NPST relationship shows a significant dependence on the background state. As previous studies primarily kept an eye on the modulation of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the MJO-NPST relationship, this study focuses on the role of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) because the QBO is suggested to make a much larger contribution to the interannual variability of the MJO than ENSO does. Results of this study show a regulation of the MJO-NPST relationship by different phases of the QBO. The amplitude of the MJO associated NPST variation is generally larger in the easterly phase of the QBO (EQBO) than in westerly phase of the QBO (WQBO). The pattern of the NPST variation also exhibits significant differences between the two QBO phases. The analysis of the underlying mechanism from the perspective of intraseasonal mean flow indicates an important role of the MJO associated baroclinicity in the enhanced amplitude of the NPST variation in EQBO years. On the other hand, the pattern differences in the NPST variation during different QBO phases result from changes in the intraseasonal baroclinic energy conversion and corresponding energy propagation. The results of this study suggest a consideration of the QBO impact in reproducing the MJO-midlatitudes teleconnection in general circulation models (GCMs). This study also provides a potential route for the improvement of the sub-seasonal prediction of extratropical storm activities.

Wind damage effects of Hurricane Andrew on mangrove communities along the southwest coast of Florida, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, T.W.; Smith, T. J.; Robblee, M.B.

1995-01-01

On August 24, 1992, Hurricane Andrew downed and defoliated an extensive swath of mangrove trees across the lower Florida peninsula. Permanent field sites were established to assess the extent of forest damage and to monitor the rate and process of forest recovery. Canopy trees suffered the highest mortality particularly for sites within and immediately north of the storm's eyewall. The type and extent of site damage, windthrow, branch loss, and defoliation generally decreased exponentially with increasing distance from the storm track. Forest damage was greater for sites in the storm's right quadrant than in the left quadrant tor the same given distance from the storm center. Stand exposure, both horizontally and vertically, increased the susceptibility and probability of forest damage and accounted for much of the local variability. Slight species differences were found. Laguncularia racemosa exceeded Avicennia germinans and Rhizophora mangle in damage tendency under similar wind conditions. Azimuths of downed trees were strongly correlated with maximum wind speed and vector based on a hurricane simulation of the storm. Lateral branch loss and leaf defoliation on sites without windthrow damage indicated a degree of crown thinning and light penetration equivalent to treefall gaps under normally intact forest conditions. Mangrove species and forests are susceptible to catastrophic disturbance by hurricanes; the impacts of which are significant to changes in forest structure and function.

Impacts of Synoptic Weather Patterns on Snow Albedo at Sites in New England

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adolph, A. C.; Albert, M. R.; Lazarcik, J.; Dibb, J. E.; Amante, J.; Price, A. N.

2015-12-01

Winter snow in the northeastern United States has changed over the last several decades, resulting in shallower snow packs, fewer days of snow cover and increasing precipitation falling as rain in the winter. In addition to these changes which cause reductions in surface albedo, increasing winter temperatures also lead to more rapid snow grain growth, resulting in decreased snow reflectivity. We present in-situ measurements and analyses to test the sensitivity of seasonal snow albedo to varying weather conditions at sites in New England. In particular, we investigate the impact of temperature on snow albedo through melt and grain growth, the impact of precipitation event frequency on albedo through snow "freshening," and the impact of storm path on snow structure and snow albedo. Over three winter seasons between 2013 and 2015, in-situ snow characterization measurements were made at three non-forested sites across New Hampshire. These near-daily measurements include spectrally resolved albedo, snow optical grain size determined through contact spectroscopy, snow depth, snow density and local meteorological parameters. Combining this information with storm tracks derived from HYSPLIT modeling, we quantify the current sensitivity of northeastern US snow albedo to temperature as well as precipitation type, frequency and path. Our analysis shows that southerly winter storms result in snow with a significantly lower albedo than storms which come from across the continental US or the Atlantic Ocean. Interannual variability in temperature and statewide spatial variability in snowfall rates at our sites show the relative importance of snowfall amount and temperatures in albedo evolution over the course of the winter.

From cyclone tracks to the costs of European winter storms: A probabilistic loss assessment model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renggli, Dominik; Corti, Thierry; Reese, Stefan; Wueest, Marc; Viktor, Elisabeth; Zimmerli, Peter

2014-05-01

The quantitative assessment of the potential losses of European winter storms is essential for the economic viability of a global reinsurance company. For this purpose, reinsurance companies generally use probabilistic loss assessment models. This work presents an innovative approach to develop physically meaningful probabilistic events for Swiss Re's new European winter storm loss model. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20th Century Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of properties of historical events (e.g. track, intensity). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account. The low-resolution wind footprints taken from 20th Century Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints of the historical and probabilistic winter storm events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country- and risk-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific exposure information to compute (re-)insurance risk premiums.

Observations of the structure and evolution of surface and flight-level wind asymmetries in Hurricane Rita (2005)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, Robert; Uhlhorn, Eric

2008-11-01

Knowledge of the magnitude and distribution of surface winds, including the structure of azimuthal asymmetries in the wind field, are important factors for tropical cyclone forecasting. With its ability to remotely measure surface wind speeds, the stepped frequency microwave radiometer (SFMR) has assumed a prominent role for the operational tropical cyclone forecasting community. An example of this instrument's utility is presented here, where concurrent measurements of aircraft flight-level and SFMR surface winds are used to document the wind field evolution over three days in Hurricane Rita (2005). The amplitude and azimuthal location (phase) of the wavenumber-1 asymmetry in the storm-relative winds varied at both levels over time. The peak was found to the right of storm track at both levels on the first day. By the third day, the peak in flight-level storm-relative winds remained to the right of storm track, but it shifted to left of storm track at the surface, resulting in a 60-degree shift between the surface and flight-level and azimuthal variations in the ratio of surface to flight-level winds. The asymmetric differences between the surface and flight-level maximum wind radii also varied, indicating a vortex whose tilt was increasing.

Analysis of the monitoring data of geomagnetic storm interference in the electrification system of a high-speed railway

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lianguang; Ge, Xiaoning; Zong, Wei; Zhou, You; Liu, Mingguang

2016-10-01

To study the impact of geomagnetic storm on the equipment of traction electrification system in the high-speed railway, geomagnetically induced current (GIC) monitoring devices were installed in the Hebi East traction power supply substation of the Beijing-Hong Kong Dedicated Passenger Line in January 2015, and GICs were captured during the two geomagnetic storms on 17 March and 23 June 2015. In order to investigate the GIC flow path, both in the track circuit and in the traction network adopting the autotransformer feeding system, a GIC monitor plan was proposed for the electrical system in the Hebi East traction power supply substation. This paper analyzes the correlation between the GIC captured on 17 March and the geomagnetic data obtained from the Malingshan Geomagnetic Observatory and presents a regression analysis between the measured GIC and the calculated geoelectric fields on 23 June in the high-speed railway. The maximum GICs measured in the track circuit are 1.08 A and 1.74 A during the two geomagnetic storms. We find that it is necessary to pay attention on the throttle transformers and track circuits, as the most sensitive elements responding to the extreme geomagnetic storms in the high-speed railway.

Major storm periods and climate forcing in the Western Mediterranean during the Late Holocene

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Degeai, Jean-Philippe; Devillers, Benoît; Dezileau, Laurent; Oueslati, Hamza; Bony, Guénaëlle

2015-12-01

Big storm events represent a major risk for populations and infrastructures settled on coastal lowlands. In the Western Mediterranean, where human societies colonized and occupied the coastal areas since the Ancient times, the variability of storm activity for the past three millennia was investigated with a multi-proxy sedimentological and geochemical study from a lagoonal sequence. Mappings of the geochemistry and magnetic susceptibility of detrital sources in the watershed of the lagoon and from the coastal barriers were undertaken in order to track the terrestrial or coastal/marine origin of sediments deposited into the lagoon. The multi-proxy analysis shows that coarser material, low magnetic susceptibility, and high strontium content characterize the sedimentological signature of the paleostorm levels identified in the lagoonal sequence. A comparison with North Atlantic and Western Mediterranean paleoclimate proxies shows that the phases of high storm activity occurred during cold periods, suggesting a climatically-controlled mechanism for the occurrence of these storm periods. Besides, an in-phase storm activity pattern is found between the Western Mediterranean and Northern Europe. Spectral analyses performed on the Sr content revealed a new 270-year solar-driven pattern of storm cyclicity. For the last 3000 years, this 270-year cycle defines a succession of ten major storm periods (SP) with a mean duration of 96 ± 54 yr. Periods of higher storm activity are recorded from >680 to 560 cal yr BC (SP10, end of the Iron Age Cold Period), from 140 to 820 cal yr AD (SP7 to SP5) with a climax of storminess between 400 and 800 cal yr AD (Dark Ages Cold Period), and from 1230 to >1800 cal yr AD (SP3 to SP1, Little Ice Age). Periods of low storm activity occurred from 560 cal yr BC to 140 cal yr AD (SP9 and SP8, Roman Warm Period) and from 820 to 1230 cal yr AD (SP4, Medieval Warm Period).

Realistic dust and water cycles in the MarsWRF GCM using coupled two-moment microphysics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Christopher; Richardson, Mark Ian; Mischna, Michael A.; Newman, Claire E.

2017-10-01

Dust and water ice aerosols significantly complicate the Martian climate system because the evolution of the two aerosol fields is coupled through microphysics and because both aerosols strongly interact with visible and thermal radiation. The combination of strong forcing feedback and coupling has led to various problems in understanding and modeling of the Martian climate: in reconciling cloud abundances at different locations in the atmosphere, in generating a stable dust cycle, and in preventing numerical instability within models.Using a new microphysics model inside the MarsWRF GCM we show that fully coupled simulations produce more realistic simulation of the Martian climate system compared to a dry, dust only simulations. In the coupled simulations, interannual variability and intra-annual variability are increased, strong 'solstitial pause' features are produced in both winter high latitude regions, and dust storm seasons are more varied, with early southern summer (Ls 180) dust storms and/or more than one storm occurring in some seasons.A new microphysics scheme was developed as a part of this work and has been included in the MarsWRF model. The scheme uses split spectral/spatial size distribution numerics with adaptive bin sizes to track particle size evolution. Significantly, this scheme is highly accurate, numerically stable, and is capable of running with time steps commensurate with those of the parent atmospheric model.

The observed clustering of damaging extratropical cyclones in Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cusack, Stephen

2016-04-01

The clustering of severe European windstorms on annual timescales has substantial impacts on the (re-)insurance industry. Our knowledge of the risk is limited by large uncertainties in estimates of clustering from typical historical storm data sets covering the past few decades. Eight storm data sets are gathered for analysis in this study in order to reduce these uncertainties. Six of the data sets contain more than 100 years of severe storm information to reduce sampling errors, and observational errors are reduced by the diversity of information sources and analysis methods between storm data sets. All storm severity measures used in this study reflect damage, to suit (re-)insurance applications. The shortest storm data set of 42 years provides indications of stronger clustering with severity, particularly for regions off the main storm track in central Europe and France. However, clustering estimates have very large sampling and observational errors, exemplified by large changes in estimates in central Europe upon removal of one stormy season, 1989/1990. The extended storm records place 1989/1990 into a much longer historical context to produce more robust estimates of clustering. All the extended storm data sets show increased clustering between more severe storms from return periods (RPs) of 0.5 years to the longest measured RPs of about 20 years. Further, they contain signs of stronger clustering off the main storm track, and weaker clustering for smaller-sized areas, though these signals are more uncertain as they are drawn from smaller data samples. These new ultra-long storm data sets provide new information on clustering to improve our management of this risk.

Long-term Trends and Variability of Eddy Activities in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, M.; von Storch, H.

2017-12-01

For constructing empirical downscaling models and projecting possible future states of eddy activities in the South China Sea (SCS), long-term statistical characteristics of the SCS eddy are needed. We use a daily global eddy-resolving model product named STORM covering the period of 1950-2010. This simulation has employed the MPI-OM model with a mean horizontal resolution of 10km and been driven by the NCEP reanalysis-1 data set. An eddy detection and tracking algorithm operating on the gridded sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) fields was developed. A set of parameters for the criteria in the SCS are determined through sensitivity tests. Our method detected more than 6000 eddy tracks in the South China Sea. For all of them, eddy diameters, track length, eddy intensity, eddy lifetime and eddy frequency were determined. The long-term trends and variability of those properties also has been derived. Most of the eddies propagate westward. Nearly 100 eddies travel longer than 1000km, and over 800 eddies have a lifespan of more than 2 months. Furthermore, for building the statistical empirical model, the relationship between the SCS eddy statistics and the large-scale atmospheric and oceanic phenomena has been investigated.

Dust, Climate, and Human Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2003-01-01

Air pollution from both natural and anthropogenic causes is considered to be one of the most serious world-wide environment-related health problems, and is expected to become worse with changes in the global climate. Dust storms from the atmospheric transport of desert soil dust that has been lifted and carried by the winds - often over significant distances - have become an increasingly important emerging air quality issue for many populations. Recent studies have shown that the dust storms can cause significant health impacts from the dust itself as well as the accompanying pollutants, pesticides, metals, salt, plant debris, and other inorganic and organic materials, including viable microorganisms (bacteria, viruses and fungi). For example, thousands of tons of Asian desert sediments, some containing pesticides and herbicides from farming regions, are commonly transported into the Arctic during dust storm events. These chemicals have been identified in animal and human tissues among Arctic indigenous populations. Millions of tons of airborne desert dust are being tracked by satellite imagery, which clearly shows the magnitude as well as the temporal and spatial variability of dust storms across the "dust belt" regions of North Africa, the Middle East, and China. Ths paper summarizes the most recent findings on the effects of airborne desert dust on human health as well as potential climate influences on dust and health.

Dust, Climate, and Human Health

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Maynard, Nancy G.

2003-01-01

Air pollution from both natural and anthropogenic causes is considered to be one of the most serious world-wide environment-related health problems, and is expected to become worse with changes in the global climate. Dust storms from the atmospheric transport of desert soil dust that has been lifted and carried by the winds - often over significant distances - have become an increasingly important emerging air quality issue for many populations. Recent studies have shown that the dust storms can cause significant health impacts from the dust itself as well as the accompanying pollutants, pesticides, metals, salt, plant debris, and other inorganic and organic materials, including viable microorganisms (bacteria, viruses and fungi). For example, thousands of tons of Asian desert sediments, some containing pesticides and herbicides from farming regions, are commonly transported into the Arctic during dust storm events. These chemicals have been identified in animal and human tissues among Arctic indigenous populations. Millions of tons of airborne desert dust are being tracked by satellite imagery, which clearly shows the magnitude as well as the temporal and spatial variability of dust storms across the "dust belt" regions of North Africa, the Middle East, and China. This paper summarizes the most recent findings on the effects of airborne desert dust on human health as well as potential climate influences on dust and health.

Dust, Climate, and Human Health

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maynard, N. G.

2003-12-01

Air pollution from both natural and anthropogenic causes is considered to be one of the most serious world-wide environment-related health problems, and is expected to become worse with changes in the global climate. Dust storms from the atmospheric transport of desert soil dust that has been lifted and carried by the winds - often over significant distances - have become an increasingly important emerging air quality issue for many populations. Recent studies have shown that the dust storms can cause significant health impacts from the dust itself as well as the accompanying pollutants, pesticides, metals, salt, plant debris, and other inorganic and organic materials, including viable microorganisms (bacteria, viruses and fungi). For example, thousands of tons of Asian desert sediments, some containing pesticides and herbicides from farming regions, are commonly transported into the Arctic during dust storm events. These chemicals have been identified in animal and human tissues among Arctic indigenous populations. Millions of tons of airborne desert dust are being tracked by satellite imagery, which clearly shows the magnitude as well as the temporal and spatial variability of dust storms across the "dust belt" regions of North Africa, the Middle East, and China. This paper summarizes the most recent findings on the effects of airborne desert dust on human health as well as potential climate influences on dust and health

A Peek into a Cul-De-Sac and a Mews of Martian Dust Storm Activity: Western Hellas and Syria-Claritas Fossae During Mars Year 29

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heavens, N. G.

2016-12-01

Western Hellas Planitia (WHP) and the region encompassed by Syria Planum and Claritas Fossae are the main centers of textured dust storm activity in Mars's southern low to mid-latitudes. (Texture in this context refers to distinct fine structure at the cloud tops indicative of active lifting.) WHP is a well-known initiation zone for regional and global dust storm activity and often the end point of the Utopia "flushing storm" track. Syria-Claritas Fossae (SCF), too, can be a lifting center in global dust storm activity. Indeed, SCF and the area to its west was the region most denuded of dust by the Mars Year (MY) 25 global dust storm, perhaps suggesting that SCF contained the principal lifting center of the storm. Thus, if the Acidalia and Utopia storm tracks are Mars's dust storm alleys, through which dust storms pass quickly again and again; WHP might be a cul-de-sac and SCF something like a mews, where dust storm activity can enter more or less easily but may not as easily leave. In this presentation, I will focus on dust storm activity in these areas in a typical non-global dust storm year, MY 29. Synthesizing visible imagery by the Mars Color Imager (MARCI) on board Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) and Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) also on board MRO, I will consider the climatology, morphology, texture, and vertical structure of dust storm activity in these areas in order to infer their governing dynamics. This investigation has two aims: (1) to understand why these areas are centers of textured dust storm activity; and (2) to connect the characteristics of smaller-scale dust storm activity in these regions to the underlying dynamics in order to understand the role of WHP and SCF in the dynamics of global dust storms. This work is supported by NASA's Mars Data Analysis Program (NNX14AM32G).

Effect of mesoscale oceanic eddies on mid-latitude storm-tracks.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Foussard, Alexis; Lapeyre, Guillaume; Plougonven, Riwal

2017-04-01

Sharp sea surface temperature (SST) gradients associated with oceanic western boundary currents (WBC) exert an influence on the position and intensity of mid-latitude storm-tracks. This occurs through strong surface baroclinicity maintained by cross frontal SST gradient and deep vertical atmospheric motion due to convection on the warm flank of the WBC. However the additional role of mesoscale oceanic structures (30-300km) has not yet been explored although they have a non-negligible influence on surface heat fluxes. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, we investigate the potential role of these oceanic eddies in the case of an idealized atmospheric mid-latitude storm track forced by a mesoscale oceanic eddy field superposed with a large-scale SST gradient. Surface latent and sensible fluxes are shown to react with a non-linear response to the SST variations, providing additional heat and moisture supply at large scales. The atmospheric response is not restricted to the boundary layer but reaches the free troposphere, especially through increased water vapor vertical transport and latent heat release. This additional heating in presence of eddies is balanced by a shift of the storm-track and its poleward heat flux toward high latitudes, with amplitude depending on atmospheric configuration and eddies amplitude. We also explore how this displacement of perturbations changes the position and structure of the mid-latitude jet through eddy momentum fluxes.

Environmental and Water Quality Operational Studies: Proceedings of the DeGray Lake Symposium Held in Arkadelphia, Arkansas.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-03-01

statistics for storm water quality variables and fractions of phosphorus, solids, and carbon are presented in Tables 7 and 8, respectively. The correlation...matrix and factor analysis (same method as used for baseflow) of storm water quality variables suggested three groups: Group I - TMG, TCA, TNA, TSI...models to predict storm water quality . The 11 static and 3 dynamic storm variables were used as potential dependent variables. All independent and

Tool for Automated Retrieval of Generic Event Tracks (TARGET)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clune, Thomas; Freeman, Shawn; Cruz, Carlos; Burns, Robert; Kuo, Kwo-Sen; Kouatchou, Jules

2013-01-01

Methods have been developed to identify and track tornado-producing mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) automatically over the continental United States, in order to facilitate systematic studies of these powerful and often destructive events. Several data sources were combined to ensure event identification accuracy. Records of watches and warnings issued by National Weather Service (NWS), and tornado locations and tracks from the Tornado History Project (THP) were used to locate MCSs in high-resolution precipitation observations and GOES infrared (11-micron) Rapid Scan Operation (RSO) imagery. Thresholds are then applied to the latter two data sets to define MCS events and track their developments. MCSs produce a broad range of severe convective weather events that are significantly affecting the living conditions of the populations exposed to them. Understanding how MCSs grow and develop could help scientists improve their weather prediction models, and also provide tools to decision-makers whose goals are to protect populations and their property. Associating storm cells across frames of remotely sensed images poses a difficult problem because storms evolve, split, and merge. Any storm-tracking method should include the following processes: storm identification, storm tracking, and quantification of storm intensity and activity. The spatiotemporal coordinates of the tracks will enable researchers to obtain other coincident observations to conduct more thorough studies of these events. In addition to their tracked locations, their areal extents, precipitation intensities, and accumulations all as functions of their evolutions in time were also obtained and recorded for these events. All parameters so derived can be catalogued into a moving object database (MODB) for custom queries. The purpose of this software is to provide a generalized, cross-platform, pluggable tool for identifying events within a set of scientific data based upon specified criteria with the possibility of storing identified events into a searchable database. The core of the application uses an implementation of the connected component labeling (CCL) algorithm to identify areas of interest, then uses a set of criteria to establish spatial and temporal relationships between identified components. The CCL algorithm is used for identifying objects within images for computer vision. This application applies it to scientific data sets using arbitrary criteria. The most novel concept was applying a generalized CCL implementation to scientific data sets for establishing events both spatially and temporally. The combination of several existing concepts (pluggable components, generalized CCL algorithm, etc.) into one application is also novel. In addition, how the system is designed, i.e., its extensibility with pluggable components, and its configurability with a simple configuration file, is innovative. This allows the system to be applied to new scenarios with ease.

The Climatology of Extreme Surge-Producing Extratropical Cyclones in Observations and Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Catalano, A. J.; Broccoli, A. J.; Kapnick, S. B.

2016-12-01

Extreme coastal storms devastate heavily populated areas around the world by producing powerful winds that can create a large storm surge. Both tropical and extratropical cyclones (ETCs) occur over the northwestern Atlantic Ocean, and the risks associated with ETCs can be just as severe as those associated with tropical storms (e.g. high winds, storm surge). At The Battery in New York City, 17 of the 20 largest storm surge events were a consequence of extratropical cyclones (ETCs), which are more prevalent than tropical cyclones in the northeast region of the United States. Therefore, we analyze the climatology of ETCs that are capable of producing a large storm surge along the northeastern coast of the United States. For a historical analysis, water level data was collected from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tide gauges at three separate locations (Sewell's Pt., VA, The Battery, NY, and Boston, MA). We perform a k-means cluster analysis of sea level pressure from the ECMWF 20th Century Reanalysis dataset (ERA-20c) to explore the natural sets of observed storms with similar characteristics. We then composite cluster results with features of atmospheric circulation to observe the influence of interannual and multidecadal variability such as the North Atlantic Oscillation. Since observational records contain a small number of well-documented ETCs, the capability of a high-resolution coupled climate model to realistically simulate such extreme coastal storms will also be assessed. Global climate models provide a means of simulating a much larger sample of extreme events, allowing for better resolution of the tail of the distribution. We employ a tracking algorithm to identify ETCs in a multi-century simulation under present-day conditions. Quantitative comparisons of cyclolysis, cyclogenesis, and cyclone densities of simulated ETCs and storms from recent history (using reanalysis products) are conducted.

Measuring and building resilience after big storms: Lessons learned from Super-Storm Sandy for the Harvey, Irma, Jose, and Maria coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murdoch, P. S.; Penn, K. M.; Taylor, S. M.; Subramanian, B.; Bennett, R.

2017-12-01

As we recover from recent large storms, we need information to support increased environmental and socio-economic resilience of the Nation's coasts. Defining baseline conditions, tracking effects of mitigation actions, and measuring the uncertainty of resilience to future disturbance are essential so that the best management practices can be determined. The US Dept. of the Interior invested over $787 million dollars in 2013 to understand and mitigate coastal storm vulnerabilities and enhance resilience of the Northeast coast following Super-Storm Sandy. Several lessons-learned from that investment have direct application to mitigation and restoration needs following Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria. New models of inundation, overwash, and erosion, developed during the Sandy projects have already been applied to coastlines before and after these recent storms. Results from wetland, beach, back-bay, estuary, and built-environment projects improved models of inundation and erosion from surge and waves. Tests of nature-based infrastructure for mitigating coastal disturbance yielded new concepts for best-practices. Ecological and socio-economic measurements established for detecting disturbance and tracking recovery provide baseline data critical to early detection of vulnerabilities. The Sandy lessons and preliminary applications on the recent storms could help define best-resilience practices before more costly mitigation or restoration efforts are required.

Evaluate Hydrologic Response on Spatiotemporal Characteristics of Rainfall Using High Resolution Radar Rainfall Data and WRF-Hydro Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, S.; Fang, N. Z.

2017-12-01

A previously developed Dynamic Moving Storm (DMS) generator is a multivariate rainfall model simulating the complex nature of precipitation field: spatial variability, temporal variability, and storm movement. Previous effort by the authors has investigated the sensitivity of DMS parameters on corresponding hydrologic responses by using synthetic storms. In this study, the DMS generator has been upgraded to generate more realistic precipitation field. The dependence of hydrologic responses on rainfall features was investigated by dissecting the precipitation field into rain cells and modifying their spatio-temporal specification individually. To retrieve DMS parameters from radar rainfall data, rain cell segmentation and tracking algorithms were respectively developed and applied on high resolution radar rainfall data (1) to spatially determine the rain cells within individual radar image and (2) to temporally analyze their dynamic behavior. Statistics of DMS parameters were established by processing a long record of rainfall data (10 years) to keep the modification on real storms within the limit of regional climatology. Empirical distributions of the DMS parameters were calculated to reveal any preferential pattern and seasonality. Subsequently, the WRF-Hydro model forced by the remodeled and modified precipitation was used for hydrologic simulation. The study area was the Upper Trinity River Basin (UTRB) watershed, Texas; and two kinds of high resolution radar data i.e. the Next-Generation Radar (NEXRAD) level III Digital Hybrid Reflectivity (DHR) product and Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) precipitation rate product, were utilized to establish parameter statistics and to recreate/remodel historical events respectively. The results demonstrated that rainfall duration is a significant linkage between DMS parameters and their hydrologic impacts—any combination of spatiotemporal characteristics that keep rain cells longer over the catchment will produce higher peak discharge.

Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

Multiple cyclic tornado production modes in the 5 May 2007 Greensburg, Kansas supercell storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tanamachi, Robin Lynn

Long-track, violent tornadoes are rare events, but are responsible for a disproportionate majority of tornado fatalities, injuries, and property damage. It has been observed that such tornadoes are often generated as part of a series produced by one supercell, and preceded by one or more smaller tornadoes. At some point, a transition in the tornado production mode occurs, from short-track, cyclic tornado production (mode I), to long-track, single (plus satellite) tornado production (mode II). This transition has been documented only a few times at close range by Doppler weather radars. A cyclic, tornadic supercell ("the Greensburg storm") generated at least 22 tornadoes in southwest Kansas on 5 May 2007. One of these was the first documented EF-5 tornado ("the Greensburg tornado"), which destroyed 95% of the buildings in Greensburg, Kansas and caused 11 fatalities. The University of Massachusetts X-band, polarimetric, mobile Doppler radar (UMass X-Pol), which was operating in the area as part of a severe storms research project, collected data in the Greensburg storm for over an hour, including its transition from tornado production mode I to mode II. The first 10 tornadoes produced by the Greensburg storm can be seen in this UMass X-Pol data set. In this study, the UMass X-Pol data (as well as contemporaneous data from the WSR-88D at Dodge City, Kansas, or KDDC) are analyzed with the aim of diagnosing whether this transition occurred as a result of changes in the environmental wind profile, interaction of tornadoes with the storm's cold pool, or a combination of the two. These efforts met with limited success, largely because of the relative scarcity of observations of low-level flow in the inflow sector of the Greensburg storm. However, in the process, features of the Greensburg storm related to tornado production (such as vortices, updrafts, and polarimetric signatures) are documented, and relationships among them before, during, and after this transition are diagnosed. In particular, it is found that: (1) The horizontal motions of the earlier tornadoes (mode I) tracked to the left with respect to the updraft motion, while the motion of the Greensburg tornado and its satellites (mode II) more closely matched that of the updraft. (2) The vortex signatures in the UMass X-Pol data matched with the surveyed damage tracks. In addition, several non-tornadic circulations were documented. (4) A forward surge and retreat of a RFGF was documented a few minutes before the development of the Greensburg tornado. (4) At least two cyclonic-anticyclonic pairs of satellite tornadoes (of the Greensburg tornado) occurred, possibly indicating the upward arching of low-level horizontal vortex lines over bulges in the RFGF. (5) Weak-echo holes are documented in several tornadoes, and found to be consistently collocated with corresponding vortex signatures in azimuth but biased slightly far from the radar in range. (6) A polarimetric tornadic debris signature is found near the surface in the mature Greensburg tornado. In addition, a ZDR arc is documented whose presence corroborates increasing low-level vertical wind shear in the inflow sector. Other polarimetric supercell features are consistent with those found in previous studies. In an attempt to retrieve in-storm variables not observed by radar, KDDC and UMass X-Pol radar data were assimilated into a numerical weather prediction model using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) technique. Two sets of experiments were performed, one in which UMass X-Pol data were either included or withheld from assimilation with KDDC data, and another in which the 0 -- 3 km AGL initial environmental wind profile was modified to include a low-level jet, or not. Assimilation of UMass X-Pol data results in more pronounced changes to the analyses than the addition of a low-level jet, although both changes result in nearsurface vortices that are stronger, deeper, and longer-lived than in experiments without. When UMass X-Pol data are assimilated, vortices appear in the analyses that correspond to mode I tornadoes, and the southward-spreading, surface cold pool from the Greensburg storm (which likely results from the use of a relatively simple microphysical parameterization scheme) deflects around the assimilated observations of southerly flow at the UMass X-Pol deployment site. Neither of these features appear when UMass X-Pol data are withheld. I close by discussing the implications of these results for future avenues of research involving analysis and assimilation of data from mobile Doppler radars, including storm-scale prediction.

Arctic storms simulated in atmospheric general circulation models under uniform high, uniform low, and variable resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roesler, E. L.; Bosler, P. A.; Taylor, M.

2016-12-01

The impact of strong extratropical storms on coastal communities is large, and the extent to which storms will change with a warming Arctic is unknown. Understanding storms in reanalysis and in climate models is important for future predictions. We know that the number of detected Arctic storms in reanalysis is sensitive to grid resolution. To understand Arctic storm sensitivity to resolution in climate models, we describe simulations designed to identify and compare Arctic storms at uniform low resolution (1 degree), at uniform high resolution (1/8 degree), and at variable resolution (1 degree to 1/8 degree). High-resolution simulations resolve more fine-scale structure and extremes, such as storms, in the atmosphere than a uniform low-resolution simulation. However, the computational cost of running a globally uniform high-resolution simulation is often prohibitive. The variable resolution tool in atmospheric general circulation models permits regional high-resolution solutions at a fraction of the computational cost. The storms are identified using the open-source search algorithm, Stride Search. The uniform high-resolution simulation has over 50% more storms than the uniform low-resolution and over 25% more storms than the variable resolution simulations. Storm statistics from each of the simulations is presented and compared with reanalysis. We propose variable resolution as a cost-effective means of investigating physics/dynamics coupling in the Arctic environment. Future work will include comparisons with observed storms to investigate tuning parameters for high resolution models. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-program laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000. SAND2016-7402 A

Skill assessment of a real-time forecast system utilizing a coupled hydrologic and coastal hydrodynamic model during Hurricane Irene (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dresback, Kendra M.; Fleming, Jason G.; Blanton, Brian O.; Kaiser, Carola; Gourley, Jonathan J.; Tromble, Evan M.; Luettich, Richard A.; Kolar, Randall L.; Hong, Yang; Van Cooten, Suzanne; Vergara, Humberto J.; Flamig, Zac L.; Lander, Howard M.; Kelleher, Kevin E.; Nemunaitis-Monroe, Kodi L.

2013-12-01

Due to the devastating effects of recent hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico (e.g., Katrina, Rita, Ike and Gustav), the development of a high-resolution, real-time, total water level prototype system has been accelerated. The fully coupled model system that includes hydrology is an extension of the ADCIRC Surge Guidance System (ASGS), and will henceforth be referred to as ASGS-STORM (Scalable, Terrestrial, Ocean, River, Meteorological) to emphasize the major processes that are represented by the system.The ASGS-STORM system incorporates tides, waves, winds, rivers and surge to produce a total water level, which provides a holistic representation of coastal flooding. ASGS-STORM was rigorously tested during Hurricane Irene, which made landfall in late August 2011 in North Carolina. All results from ASGS-STORM for the advisories were produced in real-time, forced by forecast wind and pressure fields computed using a parametric tropical cyclone model, and made available via the web. Herein, a skill assessment, analyzing wind speed and direction, significant wave heights, and total water levels, is used to evaluate ASGS-STORM's performance during Irene for three advisories and the best track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). ASGS-STORM showed slight over-prediction for two advisories (Advisory 23 and 25) due to the over-estimation of the storm intensity. However, ASGS-STORM shows notable skill in capturing total water levels, wind speed and direction, and significant wave heights in North Carolina when utilizing Advisory 28, which had a slight shift in the track but provided a more accurate estimation of the storm intensity, along with the best track from the NHC. Results from ASGS-STORM have shown that as the forecast of the advisories improves, so does the accuracy of the models used in the study; therefore, accurate input from the weather forecast is a necessary, but not sufficient, condition to ensure the accuracy of the guidance provided by the system. While Irene provided a real-time test of the viability of a total water level system, the relatively insignificant freshwater discharges precludes definitive conclusions about the role of freshwater discharges on total water levels in estuarine zones. Now that the system has been developed, on-going work will examine storms (e.g., Floyd) for which the freshwater discharge played a more meaningful role.

Climate model biases in jet streams, blocking and storm tracks resulting from missing orographic drag

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pithan, Felix; Shepherd, Theodore G.; Zappa, Giuseppe; Sandu, Irina

2016-07-01

State-of-the art climate models generally struggle to represent important features of the large-scale circulation. Common model deficiencies include an equatorward bias in the location of the midlatitude westerlies and an overly zonal orientation of the North Atlantic storm track. Orography is known to strongly affect the atmospheric circulation and is notoriously difficult to represent in coarse-resolution climate models. Yet how the representation of orography affects circulation biases in current climate models is not understood. Here we show that the effects of switching off the parameterization of drag from low-level orographic blocking in one climate model resemble the biases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble: An overly zonal wintertime North Atlantic storm track and less European blocking events, and an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemispheric jet and increase in the Southern Annular Mode time scale. This suggests that typical circulation biases in coarse-resolution climate models may be alleviated by improved parameterizations of low-level drag.

Hydrometeorological application of an extratropical cyclone classification scheme in the southern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Senkbeil, J. C.; Brommer, D. M.; Comstock, I. J.; Loyd, T.

2012-07-01

Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) in the southern United States are often overlooked when compared with tropical cyclones in the region and ETCs in the northern United States. Although southern ETCs are significant weather events, there is currently not an operational scheme used for identifying and discussing these nameless storms. In this research, we classified 84 ETCs (1970-2009). We manually identified five distinct formation regions and seven unique ETC types using statistical classification. Statistical classification employed the use of principal components analysis and two methods of cluster analysis. Both manual and statistical storm types generally showed positive (negative) relationships with El Niño (La Niña). Manual storm types displayed precipitation swaths consistent with discrete storm tracks which further legitimizes the existence of multiple modes of southern ETCs. Statistical storm types also displayed unique precipitation intensity swaths, but these swaths were less indicative of track location. It is hoped that by classifying southern ETCs into types, that forecasters, hydrologists, and broadcast meteorologists might be able to better anticipate projected amounts of precipitation at their locations.

Relationship between the trajectory of mid-latitude cyclones in the eastern Pacific Ocean and the isotopic composition of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vasquez, K. T.; Sickman, J. O.; Lucero, D. M.; Heard, A. M.

2014-12-01

Climate change has caused a change in the Sierra Nevada snowpack and the timing of its snowmelt, threatening a valuable water resource that provides for 25 million people and 5 million hectares of irrigated land. Understanding past and future variations in the snowpack is crucial in order to plan future water management. Of particular importance would be an archive of the variability of past snowfall, which can be recorded through the isotopic records found in local paleoproxies (e.g., diatoms). We propose to quantify the relationship between sources of atmospheric moisture in the Sierra Nevada and the isotopic composition of its snowpack to uncover whether isotopic variations recorded in paloearchives are a result of the isotopic composition of the precipitation, thereby showing whether these archives could serve as a reliable source of atmospheric moisture. Preliminary analysis conducted from December 2012 to March 2013 at Sequoia National Park resulted in statistically significant correlations between the isotopic composition of the winter snowfall and storm track trajectories. It was observed that storms originating from more northern latitudes had predominantly lighter isotopes (more negative δ 2H and δ18O) and sub-tropical/tropical Pacific storms showed more positive δ 2H and δ18O. This pattern reflects the isotopic gradient of the Pacific Ocean and can prove useful when interpreting the climatic significance of the δ2H and δ18O values in analyzed proxies. While our initial investigation was promising, the winter of 2012 -2013 was abnormally dry compared to long-term averages. Before directing our investigation to known paleoproxies, we aim to determine if the correlation between storm tracks and isotopic composition of precipitation holds in years with average and above average precipitation through analysis of archived samples from calendar years 2007 - 2011 from Giant Forest in Sequoia National Park (southern sierra) and Manzanita Lake in Lassen Volcanic National Park (northern sierra).

49 CFR 213.367 - Special inspections.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

..., DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION TRACK SAFETY STANDARDS Train Operations at Track Classes 6 and Higher § 213.367 Special inspections. In the event of fire, flood, severe storm, temperature extremes or other occurrence...

Emerging role of Indian ocean on Indian northeast monsoon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yadav, Ramesh Kumar

2013-07-01

This study examines the emerging role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) on the inter-annual variability (IAV) of Indian north-east monsoon rainfall (NEMR). The IAV of NEMR is associated with the warm SST anomaly over east Bay-of-Bengal (BoB) (88.5oE-98.5oE; 8.5oN-15.5oN) and cool SST anomaly over east equatorial Indian Ocean (80.5oE-103.5oE; 6.5oS-3.5oN). The gradient of SST between these boxes (i.e. northern box minus southern box) shows strong and robust association with the Indian NEMR variability in the recent decades. For establishing the teleconnections, SST, mean sea level pressure, North Indian Ocean tropical storm track, and circulation data have been used. The study reveals that during the positive SST gradient years, the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) shifts northwards over the East Indian Ocean. The tropical depressions, storms and cyclones formed in the North Indian Ocean moves more zonally and strike the southern peninsular India and hence excess NEMR. While, during the negative SST gradient years, the ITCZ shifts southwards over the Indian Ocean. The tropical depressions, storms and cyclones formed in the North Indian Ocean moves more northwestward direction and after crossing 15oN latitude re-curve to north-east direction towards head BoB and misses southern peninsular India and hence, deficient NEMR.

Numerical Analysis of Storm Surge and Seiche at Tokyo Bay caused by the 2 Similar Typhoons, Typhoon Phanphon and Vongfong in 2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iwamoto, T.; Takagawa, T.

2017-12-01

A long period damped oscillation, or seiche, sometimes happens inside a harbor after passing typhoon. For some cases, a maximum sea level is observed due to the superposition of astronomical tide and seiche rather than a peak of storm surge. Hence to clarify seiche factors for reducing disaster potential is important, a long-period seiche with a fundamental period of 5.46 hours in Tokyo Bay (Konishi, 2008) was investigated through numerical simulations and analyses. We examined the case of Typhoon Phanphon and Vongfong in 2014 (Hereafter Case P and V). The intensity and moving velocity were similar and the best-tracks were an arc-shaped, typical one approaching to Tokyo Bay. The track of Case V was about 1.5 degree higher latitude than that of Case P, only Typhoon Phanphon caused significant seiche.Firstly, numerical simulations for the 2 storm surges at Tokyo Bay were conducted by Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) and Meso-Scale Model Grid Point Values (MSM-GPV). MSM-GPV gave the 10m wind speed and Sea Level Pressure (SLP), especially the Mean Error (ME) and Root Mean Squire Error (RMSE) of SLP were low compared to the 12 JMA observation points data (Case P: ME -0.303hPa, RMSE 1.87hPa, Case V: ME -0.285hPa, RMSE 0.74hPa). The computational results showed that the maximum of storm surge was underestimated but the difference was less than 20cm at 5 observation points in Tokyo Bay(Fig.1, 2).Then, power spectrals, coherences and phase differences of storm surges at the 5 observation points were obtained by spectral analysis of observed and simulated waveforms. For Case P, the phase-difference between the bay mouth and innermost part of Tokyo Bay was little, and coherence was almost 1(Fig.3, 4). However, for Case V, coherence was small around the fundamental period of 5.46 hours. Furthermore, Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis of storm surge, SLP and sea surface stress were conducted. The contributions of EOF1 were above 90% for the all variables, the gradient of storm surge EOF1 was parallel to the bay axis for Case P, but about 50-degree oblique from the axis for Case V(Fig.5, 6). In addition, the EOF1 of SLP for Case P showed a concentric circle structure above Tokyo Bay, besides the structure was not appeared for Case V.

NASA Image Shows a Slightly Stronger Emily

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-08-02

NASA Aqua spacecraft continues to track the gradual organization of Tropical Storm Emily, as seen in this image taken Aug. 2, 2011 at 1:05 p.m. EDT. At that time, the storm was located about 270 miles southeast of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

From Cyclone Tracks to the Costs of European Winter Storms: A Probabilistic Loss Assessment Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Orwig, K.; Renggli, D.; Corti, T.; Reese, S.; Wueest, M.; Viktor, E.; Zimmerli, P.

2014-12-01

European winter storms cause billions of dollars of insured losses every year. Therefore, it is essential to understand potential impacts of future events, and the role reinsurance can play to mitigate the losses. The authors will present an overview on natural catastrophe risk assessment modeling in the reinsurance industry, and the development of a new innovative approach for modeling the risk associated with European winter storms.The new innovative approach includes the development of physically meaningful probabilistic (i.e. simulated) events for European winter storm loss assessment. The meteorological hazard component of the new model is based on cyclone and windstorm tracks identified in the 20thCentury Reanalysis data. The knowledge of the evolution of winter storms both in time and space allows the physically meaningful perturbation of historical event properties (e.g. track, intensity, etc.). The perturbation includes a random element but also takes the local climatology and the evolution of the historical event into account.The low-resolution wind footprints taken from the 20thCentury Reanalysis are processed by a statistical-dynamical downscaling to generate high-resolution footprints for both the simulated and historical events. Downscaling transfer functions are generated using ENSEMBLES regional climate model data. The result is a set of reliable probabilistic events representing thousands of years. The event set is then combined with country and site-specific vulnerability functions and detailed market- or client-specific information to compute annual expected losses.

Characteristics of storms that contribute to extreme precipitation events over the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trigo, Ricardo; Ramos, Alexandre M.; Ordoñez, Paulina; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.

2014-05-01

Floods correspond to one of the most deadly natural disasters in the Iberian Peninsula during the last century. Quite often these floods are associated to intense low pressure systems with an Atlantic origin. In recent years a number of episodes have been evaluated on a case-by-case approach, with a clear focus on extreme events, thus lacking a systematic assessment. In this study we focus on the characteristics of storms for the extended winter season (October to March) that are responsible for the most extreme rainfall events over large areas of the Iberian Peninsula. An objective method for ranking daily precipitation events during the extended winter is used based on the most comprehensive database of high resolution (0.2º latitude by 0.2º longitude) gridded daily precipitation dataset available for the Iberian Peninsula. The magnitude of an event is obtained after considering the total area affected as well as its intensity in every grid point (taking into account the daily normalised departure from climatology). Different precipitation rankings are studied considering the entire Iberian Peninsula, Portugal and also the six largest river basins in the Iberian Peninsula (Duero, Ebro, Tagus, Minho, Guadiana and Guadalquivir). Using an objective cyclone detecting and tracking scheme [Trigo, 2006] the storm track and characteristics of the cyclones were obtained using the ERA-Interim reanalyses for the 1979-2008 period. The spatial distribution of extratropical cyclone positions when the precipitation extremes occur will be analysed over the considered sub-domains (Iberia, Portugal, major river basins). In addition, we distinguish the different cyclone characteristics (lifetime, direction, minimum pressure, position, velocity, vorticity and radius) with significant impacts in precipitation over the different domains in the Iberian Peninsula. This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010). A. M. Ramos was also supported by a FCT postdoctoral Grant (FCT/DFRH/SFRH/BPD/84328/2012). Trigo I. F. (2006) Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: A comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Clim. Dyn., 26, 127-143.

The Development of Storm Surge Ensemble Prediction System and Case Study of Typhoon Meranti in 2016

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Y. L.; Wu, T. R.; Terng, C. T.; Chu, C. H.

2017-12-01

Taiwan is under the threat of storm surge and associated inundation, which is located at a potentially severe storm generation zone. The use of ensemble prediction can help forecasters to know the characteristic of storm surge under the uncertainty of track and intensity. In addition, it can help the deterministic forecasting. In this study, the kernel of ensemble prediction system is based on COMCOT-SURGE (COrnell Multi-grid COupled Tsunami Model - Storm Surge). COMCOT-SURGE solves nonlinear shallow water equations in Open Ocean and coastal regions with the nested-grid scheme and adopts wet-dry-cell treatment to calculate potential inundation area. In order to consider tide-surge interaction, the global TPXO 7.1 tide model provides the tidal boundary conditions. After a series of validations and case studies, COMCOT-SURGE has become an official operating system of Central Weather Bureau (CWB) in Taiwan. In this study, the strongest typhoon in 2016, Typhoon Meranti, is chosen as a case study. We adopt twenty ensemble members from CWB WRF Ensemble Prediction System (CWB WEPS), which differs from parameters of microphysics, boundary layer, cumulus, and surface. From box-and-whisker results, maximum observed storm surges were located in the interval of the first and third quartile at more than 70 % gauge locations, e.g. Toucheng, Chengkung, and Jiangjyun. In conclusion, the ensemble prediction can effectively help forecasters to predict storm surge especially under the uncertainty of storm track and intensity

Hurricane Rita TrackRadar Image with Topographic Overlay

NASA Image and Video Library

2005-09-22

The Gulf Coast from the Mississippi Delta through the Texas coast is shown in this satellite image from NASA Terra spacecraft, and the predicted storm track for Hurricane Rita acquired in February, 2000.

Uncertainty estimates of altimetric Global Mean Sea Level timeseries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharffenberg, Martin; Hemming, Michael; Stammer, Detlef

2016-04-01

An attempt is being presented concerned with providing uncertainty measures for global mean sea level time series. For this purpose sea surface height (SSH) fields, simulated by the high resolution STORM/NCEP model for the period 1993 - 2010, were subsampled along altimeter tracks and processed similar to techniques used by five working groups to estimate GMSL. Results suggest that the spatial and temporal resolution have a substantial impact on GMSL estimates. Major impacts can especially result from the interpolation technique or the treatment of SSH outliers and easily lead to artificial temporal variability in the resulting time series.

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffey, Victoria; Sazykin, Stan; Chandler, Michael; Hairston, Marc; Minow, Joseph; Anderson, Brian

2017-01-01

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle, resulting from an active region on the Sun that produced numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated interplanetary shock waves. On June 22 at 18:36 UT the magnetosphere was impacted by the leading-edge shock wave and a sheath carrying a large and highly variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with values ranging from +25 to -40 nT. During the subsequent interval from 0000 to 0800 UT, there was a second intensification of the geomagnetic storm resulting from the impact of the CME. We present dramatic responses of simultaneous particle measurements from the high-altitude Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) at high altitudes in the magnetosphere (approx. 9-12 Re) and from the low-altitude (F-region) Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS). We analyze potential causes of these dramatic particle flux dropouts by putting them in the context of storm-time electrodynamics, and support our results with numerical simulations of the global magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the sheath phase of the storm, the MMS spacecraft in the near-earth equatorial plane observed a rapid reconfiguration of the magnetic field near 1923 UT. Initially in the warm plasmasheet, particle flux dropouts were observed as they tracked the plasma-sheet to lobe transitions with the stretching and thinning of the plasmasheet. Anti-sunward flowing O+ ions of ionospheric origin were also measured during this period, confirming that the MMS spacecraft temporarily was in a lobe.

Observations of Deep Ionospheric F-Region Density Depletions with FPMU Instrumentation and Their Relationship with the Global Dynamics of the June 22-23, 2015 Geomagnetic Storm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coffey, Victoria; Sazykin, Stan; Chandler, Michael; Hairston, Marc; Minow, Joseph; Anderson, Brian

2017-01-01

The magnetic storm that commenced on June 22, 2015 was one of the largest storms in the current solar cycle, resulting from an active region on the Sun that produced numerous coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and associated interplanetary shock waves. On June 22 at 18:36 UT the magnetosphere was impacted by the leading-edge shock wave and a sheath carrying a large and highly variable interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) Bz with values ranging from +25 to -40 nT. During the subsequent interval from 0000 to 0800 UT, there was a second intensification of the geomagnetic storm resulting from the impact of the CME. We present dramatic responses of simultaneous particle measurements from the high-altitude Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS) at high altitudes in the magnetosphere (approx. 9-12 Re) and from the low-altitude (F-region) Floating Potential Measurement Unit (FPMU) on board the International Space Station (ISS). We analyze potential causes of these dramatic particle flux dropouts by putting them in the context of storm-time electrodynamics, and support our results with numerical simulations of the global magnetosphere and ionosphere. During the sheath phase of the storm, the MMS spacecraft in the near-earth equatorial plane observed a rapid reconfiguration of the magnetic field near 1923 UT. Initially in the warm plasma sheet, particle flux dropouts were observed as they tracked the plasma-sheet to lobe transitions with the stretching and thinning of the plasma sheet. Anti-sunward flowing O+ ions of ionospheric origin were also measured during this period, confirming that the MMS spacecraft temporarily was in a lobe.

Climatic Change and Dynamics of Northern Hemisphere Storm-tracks: Changes in Transient Eddies Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martynova, Yuliya; Krupchatnikov, Vladimir

2013-04-01

An evidence of our understanding of the general circulation is whether we can predict changes in the general circulation that might be associated with past or future climate changes. Changes in the location, intensity or seasonality of major climatological features of the general circulation could be more important than average temperature changes, particularly where these changes could affect local hydrology, energy balances, etc. Under these major climatological features we assume the poleward expansion of the tropical circulation (Hadley circulation), static stability (changes in the vertical temperature structure of the atmosphere), role of SST forcing, sea ice extension, extratropical eddies behavior. We have a question: would the climate change significantly affect the location and intensity of midlatitude storm-tracks and associated jets? Mean-flow interaction in midlatitudes produces low-frequency variations in the latitude of the jets. It is reasonable to think that a modest climate change might significantly affects the jets location and their associated storm tracks. The storm-tracks are defined as the region of strong baroclinicity (maximum meridional temperature gradient), which are determined on the basis of eddy statistics like eddy fluxes of angular momentum, energy, and water (with the use of high-bandpass filter). In the Northern Hemisphere, there are two major storms: in the region of Atlantic and Pacific. The storm-tracks play important role in the dynamics of weather and climate. They affect the global energy cycle and the hydrological cycle, and as a result they bring heavy rains and other hazardous weather phenomena in the middle latitudes. The recent increase in global tropopause heights is closely associated with systematic temperature changes below and above the tropopause. Temperature increases in the troposphere and decreases in the stratosphere. The pattern of warming and cooling also affects the zonal wind structure in the region of the subtropical upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Extratropical tropospheric eddies play a central role in this mechanism. The eddies tend to move eastward with the zonal flow and equatorward toward the subtropics until they reach their critical latitudes, where their phase speed equals the speed of the background zonal flow. This work is partially supported by the Ministry of education and science of the Russian Federation (con-tract #8345), SB RAS project VIII.80.2.1, RFBR grant #11-05-01190a, and integrated project SB RAS #131.

Procedures for minimizing the effects of high solar activity on satellite tracking and ephemeris generation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bredvik, Gordon D.

1990-01-01

We are currently experiencing a period of high solar radiation combined with wide short-term fluctuations in the radiation. The short-term fluctuations, especially when combined with highly energetic solar flares, can adversely affect the mission of U.S. Space Command's Space Surveillance Center (SSC) which catalogs and tracks the satellites in orbit around the Earth. Rapidly increasing levels of solar electromagnetic and/or particle radiation (solar wind) causes atmospheric warming, which, in turn, causes the upper-most portions of the atmosphere to expand outward, into the regime of low altitude satellites. The increased drag on satellites from this expansion can cause large, unmodeled, in-track displacements, thus undermining the SSC's ability to track and predict satellite position. On 13 March 1989, high solar radiation levels, combined with a high-energy solar flare, caused an exceptional amount of short-term atmospheric warming. The SSC temporarily lost track of over 1300 low altitude satellites--nearly half of the low altitude satellite population. Observational data on satellites that became lost during the days following the 13 March 'solar event' was analyzed and compared with the satellites' last element set prior to the event (referred to as a geomagnetic storm because of the large increase in magnetic flux in the upper atmosphere). The analysis led to a set of procedures for reducing the impact of future geomagnetic storms. These procedures adjust selected software limit parameters in the differential correction of element sets and in the observation association process and must be manually initiated at the onset of a geomagnetic storm. Sensor tasking procedures must be adjusted to ensure that a minimum of four observations per day are received for low altitude satellites. These procedures have been implemented and, thus far, appear to be successful in minimizing the effect of subsequent geomagnetic storms on satellite tracking and ephemeris computation.

Observed Recent Trends in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Over Major Ocean Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Zhou, Y. P.

2011-01-01

In this study, we use Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) rainfall data together with historical storm track records to examine the trend of tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in major ocean basins during recent decades (1980-2007). We find that accumulated total rainfall along storm tracks for all tropical cyclones shows a weak positive trend over the whole tropics. However, total rainfall associated with weak storms, and intense storms (Category 4-5) both show significant positive trends, while total rainfall associated with intermediate storms (Category1-3) show a significant negative trend. Storm intensity defined as total rain produced per unit storm also shows increasing trend for all storm types. Basin-wide, from the first half (1980-1993) to the second half (1994-2007) of the data period, the North Atlantic shows the pronounced increase in TC number and TC rainfall while the Northeast Pacific shows a significant decrease in all storm types. Except for the Northeast Pacific, all other major basins (North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Southern Oceans, and Northern Indian Ocean) show a significant increase in total number and rainfall amount in Category 4-5 storms. Overall, trends in TC rainfall in different ocean basins are consistent with long-term changes in the ambient large-scale environment, including SST, vertical wind shear, sea level pressure, mid-tropospheric humidity, and Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI). Notably the pronounced positive (negative) trend of TC rainfall in the North Atlantic (Northeast Pacific) appears to be related to the most (least) rapid increase in SST and MPI, and the largest decrease (increase) in vertical wind shear in the region, relative to other ocean basins.

Irma Tracked from Space on This Week @NASA – September 8, 2017

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-09-08

During the week of Sept. 5, spacecraft captured imagery of hurricane Irma as the storm reached category 5 status in the Atlantic Ocean. Irma was seen from the International Space Station, Global Precipitation Measurement mission or GPM, and the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership satellite. Imagery from space is used to help forecasters and officials track and characterize storms and other natural events. Also, Johnson Space Center Recovering from Harvey, Whitson and Fischer Return to Earth, 40 Years of Voyager, and Bridenstine Nominated for Administrator!

Recent Naval Postgraduate School Publications.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-30

of the performance of a new storm tracking methodology Prepared for Naval Environmental Prediction Res. Facility Monterey, Calif., Naval Postgraduate...Aerospace Sci. Mtg., Jr’., 1983. Sarpkaya, T; Storm , M A ydrodynamic forces from combined wave and current flow on smooth and rough circular cylinders...Houston, Tx., May, 1982. IN Proc 1982 Offshore Technol. Conf., vol. 1, p.731-736, (1982). Sarpkaya, T; Storm , M A ydrodynamic forces from combined wave

Long-Range Operational Military Forecasts for Afghanistan

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-03-01

the winter and early spring months with eastward–moving extratropical synoptic storms , such as the Cyprus and Genoa low pressure systems out of the...significant impact on the storm track, temperature, and precipitation across the Northern Atlantic and into Europe and the Mediterranean. The positive...advection of moisture out of the Arabian Sea or out of central Asia. The NAO impacts on 850hPa temperatures are associated with variations in storm

Long Range Forecast Possibilities for X-Band Radar Construction on Shemya

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-05-24

strong winds, since the Aleutian Low and expanding polar vortex affect the region in the winter, as do tropical storms and frontal passages in the...summer. This, combined with Shemya being located near the exit region of the climatological storm track off the East Asian continent, makes the island...12-13 5. Path of tropical storms in the North Pacific, for the entire 160-year period

Changes in the Winter-Time Storminess over the North Atlantic, Associated with the 1.5°C and 2°C Levels of Global Warming.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, M. J.; Weaver, S. J.; Feser, F.; Schenk, F.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the changes in extreme winter-time weather conditions over the NH midlatitudes. These conditions are to a large degree caused by extratropical storms, often associated with very intense and hazardous precipitation and wind. Although the skill of CMIP5 models in capturing these extremes is improved when compared to the previous generations, the spatial and temporal resolution of the models still remains a primary reason for the deficiencies. Therefore, many features of the storms projected for the future remain inconsistent. Here we are using the high-res horizontal (0.25° lat x lon) and temporal (3hr) output of the HAPPI experiment. This output facilitates not only an implicit extraction of storm tracks but also an analysis of the storm intensity, in terms of their maximum wind and rainfall, at subdaily time-scales. The analysis of simulated present climate shows an improved spatial pattern of large-scale circulation over North America and Europe, as compared to the CMIP5-generation models, and consequently a reduced zonal bias in storm tracks pattern. The information provided at subdaily time scale provides much more realistic representation of the magnitude of the extremes. These advances significantly contribute to our understanding of differential climate impacts between 1.5°C and 2°C levels of global warming. The spatial pattern of the north-eastward shift of storm tracks, derived from the recent CMIP5 future projections, is remarkably refined here. For example, increasing storminess expands towards Scandinavia, and not towards the north-central Europe. Derived spatial features of the storm intensity, e.g. increase in wind and precipitation on the west coasts of both the British Isles and Scandinavia underlines the relevancy of the results for the local communities and potential climate change adaptation initiatives.

Progress in utilization of a mobile laboratory for making storm electricity measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rust, W. David

1988-01-01

A mobile atmospheric science laboratory has been used to intercept and track storms on the Great Plains region of the U.S., with the intention of combining the data obtained with those from Doppler and conventional radars, NASA U-2 aircraft overflights, balloon soundings, and fixed-base storm electricity measurements. The mobile lab has proven to be valuable in the gathering of ground truth verifications for the two commercially operated lightning ground-strike locating systems. Data acquisition has recently been expanded by means of mobile ballooning before and during storms.

Changes in the extreme wave heights over the Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudryavtseva, Nadia; Soomere, Tarmo

2017-04-01

Storms over the Baltic Sea and northwestern Europe have a large impact on the population, offshore industry, and shipping. The understanding of extreme events in sea wave heights and their change due to the climate change and variability is critical for assessment of flooding risks and coastal protection. The BACCII Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Basin showed that the extreme events analysis of wind waves is currently not very well addressed, as well as satellite observations of the wave heights. Here we discuss the analysis of all existing satellite altimetry data over the Baltic Sea Basin regarding extremes in the wave heights. In this talk for the first time, we present an analysis of 100-yr return periods, fitted generalized Pareto and Weibull distributions, number, and frequency of extreme events in wave heights in the Baltic Sea measured by the multi-mission satellite altimetry. The data span more than 23 years and provide an excellent spatial coverage over the Baltic Sea, allowing to study in details spatial variations and changes in extreme wave heights. The analysis is based on an application of the Initial Distribution Method, Annual Maxima method and Peak-Over-Threshold approach to satellite altimetry data, all validated in comparison with in-situ wave height measurements. Here we show that the 100-yr return periods of wave heights show significant spatial changes over the Baltic Sea indicating a decrease in the southern part of the Baltic Sea and an increase in adjacent areas, which can significantly affect coast vulnerability. Here we compare the observed shift with storm track database data and discuss a spatial correlation and possible connection between the changes in the storm tracks over the Baltic Sea and the change in the extreme wave heights.

Ionospheric ion temperature forecasting in multiples of 27 days

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sojka, Jan J.; Schunk, Robert W.; Nicolls, Michael J.

2014-03-01

The ionospheric variability found at auroral locations is usually assumed to be unpredictable. The magnetosphere, which drives this ionospheric variability via storms and substorms, is at best only qualitatively describable. In this study we demonstrate that over a 3 year period, ionospheric variability observed from Poker Flat, Alaska, has, in fact, a high degree of long-term predictability. The observations used in this study are (a) the solar wind high speed stream velocity measured by the NASA Advanced Composition Explorer satellite, used to define the corotating interaction region (CIR), and (b) the ion temperature at 300 km altitude measured by the National Science Foundation Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar over Poker Flat, Alaska. After determining a seasonal and diurnal climatology for the ion temperature, we show that the residual ion temperature heating events occur synchronously with CIR-geospace interactions. Furthermore, we demonstrate examples of ion temperature forecasting at 27, 54, and 81 days. A rudimentary operational forecasting scenario is described for forecasting recurrence 27 days ahead for the CIR-generated geomagnetic storms. These forecasts apply specifically to satellite tracking operations (thermospheric drag) and emergency HF-radio communications (ionospheric modifications) in the polar regions. The forecast is based on present-day solar and solar wind observations that can be used to uniquely identify the coronal hole and its CIR. From this CIR epoch, a 27 day forecast is then made.

Interannual variability of global dust storms on Mars.

PubMed

Haberle, R M

1986-10-24

Global dust storms on Mars occur in some years but not in others. If the four Mars years of Viking data are representative, some distinguishing characteristics can be inferred. In years with global dust storms, dust is raised in the southern hemisphere and spread over much of the planet by an intensified Hadley circulation. In years without global dust storms, dust is raised in the northern hemisphere by relatively active mid-latitude storm systems but does not spread globally. In both cases the dusty season is winter in the north. Assuming that the cross-equatorial Hadley circulation plays a key role in the onset of global dust storms, it is shown from numerical simulations that a northen hemisphere dust haze weakens its intensity and, hence, its contribution to the surface stress in the southern hemisphere. This, in turn, reduces the possibility of global dust storm development. The interannual variability is therefore the result either of a competition between circulations in opposite hemispheres, in which case the variability has a random component, or it is the result of the cycling of dust between hemispheres, in which case the variability is related to the characteristics of global dust storms themselves.

Mediterranean Cyclones in a changing climate. First statistical results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tous, M.; Genoves, A.; Campins, J.; Picornell, M. A.; Jansa, A.; Mizuta, R.

2009-09-01

The Mediterranean storms play an important role in weather and climate. Their influence in determining the local weather is known; heavy precipitation systems and strong wind cases are often related to the presence of a cyclone in the Mediterranean. From a large-scale point of view, the Mediterranean storm track has importance in the vertical and horizontal transfers of heat and water vapour towards the Eastern regions. For all of these reasons, any future change related to the intensity, frequency or tracks of these storms can be important for both the local weather and local climate, at least, in the countries around the basin. The Mediterranean cyclones constitute a study subject of increasing interest. Some climatologies from long series of re-analyses, like ERA15, NCEP/NCAR and ERA40, or from operational and high resolution analysis systems, like HIRLAM_INM and ECMWF, have allowed to define the main characteristics of these storms. Generally speaking, the Mediterranean storms have the characteristics of extratropical storms, showing smaller sizes and shorter life cycles than those ones developed in other maritime areas of the world. Moreover, the influence of the land areas and high mountains around the basin and the large-scale heat releases have been revealed as key factors for understanding their genesis and rates of development. In spite of the fact that probably the existing automatic procedures include some large scale assumptions, which may not the best for the correct detection and tracking the Mediterranean storms, these procedures can provide a first and almost necessary step, from a statistical/climatological point of view, specially taking into account both the current resolution of the existent global re-analysis series and global climatic models and the state-of-the art about Mediterranean cyclones. A cyclone detection and tracking procedure, originally designed for the description of Mediterranean storms, has been applied to the low resolution (1.5 degrees lat-lon) outputs of the JMA-GSM climate general circulation model. Preliminary results are here presented. Two different periods have been analysed. The first period, covering 1979-2002 has been compared with the previously computed ERA-40 climatology of cyclones. Results agree reasonably well with those obtained from ERA-40, providing confidence to the current climate simulation of JMA-GSM. Once validated the model from the perspective of cyclonic climatology under current climate conditions, the same procedure is applied to a scenario period (2075-2099) to investigate possible changes in cyclonic activity linked to climate change.

Nowcasting and assessing thunderstorm risk on the Lombardy region (Italy)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonelli, P.; Marcacci, P.; Bertolotti, E.; Collino, E.; Stella, G.

2011-06-01

The problem of severe thunderstorm risk in the Lombardy region (Italy) is serious. In fact during the warm season many thunderstorms (TS) occur in high density populated area located between the river Po and the Alps. In the year 2003, about 90 TS caused damage to people, houses, cars, agriculture and electrical lines. About 30 municipalities undergo damage by tornadoes. The 2003 summer was not particularly anomalous with respect to others for TS activity. In this region storms are well detected by some C-band radars and the Meteosat satellites, but the study of the correlation between these variables and the TS severity needs the collection of many met-data at the ground. Unfortunately the lack of a fine mesh met-station network forces the use of local press news or subjective reports to identify the impact of TS. Since 2006 ERSE has been collaborating with the Lombardy Region - Civil Protection Service/Office - in developing and testing a system to detect and nowcast severe thunderstorms, STAF (Storm Track Alert and Forecast). STAF is a nowcasting tool based on Radar and MSG (Meteosat Second Generation) data that selects only severe TS, tracks them and produces alert messages to users. In order to evaluate the severity of a TS, a crucial issue for STAF is the correlation between variables detected by the remote-sensing instruments and the effects at the ground. The paper describes a method to classify the severity of a TS by computing an index named "probability of damage" (PD). The index has been carried out by means of a storm archive, where radar and satellite data are stored together with damages reports from newspapers, all collected in 2003 summer. The index has been verified during the 2009 summer, when STAF was applied in a field test involving a group of Civil Protection observers and users. The results of this test are reported in the paper. The test has been also an occasion for verifying the effectiveness of information provided by STAF to selected people locally responsible for public alert and rescue in the case of a severe weather event.

North Atlantic explosive cyclones and large scale atmospheric variability modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.

2015-04-01

Extreme windstorms are one of the major natural catastrophes in the extratropics, one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe and are responsible for substantial economic damages and even fatalities. During the last decades Europe witnessed major damage from winter storms such as Lothar (December 1999), Kyrill (January 2007), Klaus (January 2009), Xynthia (February 2010), Gong (January 2013) and Stephanie (February 2014) which exhibited uncommon characteristics. In fact, most of these storms crossed the Atlantic in direction of Europe experiencing an explosive development at unusual lower latitudes along the edge of the dominant North Atlantic storm track and reaching Iberia with an uncommon intensity (Liberato et al., 2011; 2013; Liberato 2014). Results show that the explosive cyclogenesis process of most of these storms at such low latitudes is driven by: (i) the southerly displacement of a very strong polar jet stream; and (ii) the presence of an atmospheric river (AR), that is, by a (sub)tropical moisture export over the western and central (sub)tropical Atlantic which converges into the cyclogenesis region and then moves along with the storm towards Iberia. Previous studies have pointed to a link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and intense European windstorms. On the other hand, the NAO exerts a decisive control on the average latitudinal location of the jet stream over the North Atlantic basin (Woollings et al. 2010). In this work the link between North Atlantic explosive cyclogenesis, atmospheric rivers and large scale atmospheric variability modes is reviewed and discussed. Liberato MLR (2014) The 19 January 2013 windstorm over the north Atlantic: Large-scale dynamics and impacts on Iberia. Weather and Climate Extremes, 5-6, 16-28. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2014.06.002 Liberato MRL, Pinto JG, Trigo IF, Trigo RM. (2011) Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France. Weather 66:330-334. doi:10.1002/wea.755 Liberato MLR, Pinto JG, Trigo RM, Ludwig P, Ordóñez P, Yuen D, Trigo IF (2013) Explosive development of winter storm Xynthia over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 13:2239-2251. doi:10.5194/nhess-13-2239-2013 Woollings T, Hannachi A, Hoskins B (2010) Variability of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet stream. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 136, 856-868, doi:10.1002/qj.625 Acknowledgements: This work was partially supported by FEDER (Fundo Europeu de Desenvolvimento Regional) funds through the COMPETE (Programa Operacional Factores de Competitividade) and by national funds through FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, Portugal) under project STORMEx FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER- 019524 (PTDC/AAC-CLI/121339/2010).

Rapid shelf-wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes.

PubMed

Seroka, Greg; Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

2017-06-01

Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead-of-eye-center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation-validated, high-resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid-Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)-with an inshore Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season-and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)-with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead-of-eye-center depth-averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead-of-eye-center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3-D coupled atmosphere-ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels.

Regional Differences in Stratospheric Intrusions over the USA Investigated using the NASA MERRA-2 Reanalysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowland, K. E.; Ott, L.; Hodges, K.; Wargan, K.; Duncan, B. N.

2016-12-01

Stratospheric intrusions (SI) - the introduction of ozone-rich stratospheric air into the troposphere - have been linked with surface ozone air quality exceedences, especially at the high elevations in the western USA in springtime. However, the impact of SIs in the remaining seasons and over the rest of the USA is less clear. This study investigates the atmospheric dynamics that generate SIs over the western USA and the different mechanisms through which SIs may influence atmospheric chemistry and surface air quality over the eastern USA. An analysis of the spatiotemporal variability of SIs over the continental US is performed using NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis dataset and other Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) model products. Both upper-level and lower-level dynamical features are examined on seasonal timescales using the tracking algorithm of Hodges (1995, 1999). We show how upper-level relative vorticity maxima - representing troughs and cut-off lows - can be tracked and related to the lower-level storm tracks. The influence of both sets of tracks on the assimilated MERRA-2 ozone and meteorological parameters throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere is quantified. By focusing on the major modes of variability that influence the weather patterns in the USA, namely the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), predicative patterns in the meteorological fields that are associated with SIs are identified for their regional effects.

Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-01

cyclone THORPEX The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment TIGGE THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble TS tropical storm ...forecast possible, but also relay the level of uncertainty unique to a given storm . This will better inform decision makers to help protect all assets at...for any given storm . Thus, the probabilities may 4 increase or decrease (and the probability swath may widen or narrow) to provide a more

Changes of loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) dive behavior associated with tropical storm passage during the inter-nesting period.

PubMed

Wilson, Maria; Tucker, Anton D; Beedholm, Kristian; Mann, David A

2017-10-01

To improve conservation strategies for threatened sea turtles, more knowledge on their ecology, behavior, and how they cope with severe and changing weather conditions is needed. Satellite and animal motion datalogging tags were used to study the inter-nesting behavior of two female loggerhead turtles in the Gulf of Mexico, which regularly has hurricanes and tropical storms during nesting season. We contrast the behavioral patterns and swimming energetics of these two turtles, the first tracked in calm weather and the second tracked before, during and after a tropical storm. Turtle 1 was highly active and swam at the surface or submerged 95% of the time during the entire inter-nesting period, with a high estimated specific oxygen consumption rate (0.95 ml min -1  kg -0.83 ). Turtle 2 was inactive for most of the first 9 days of the inter-nesting period, during which she rested at the bottom (80% of the time) with low estimated oxygen consumption (0.62 ml min -1  kg -0.83 ). Midway through the inter-nesting period, turtle 2 encountered a tropical storm and became highly active (swimming 88% of the time during and 95% after the storm). Her oxygen consumption increased significantly to 0.97 ml min -1  kg -0.83 during and 0.98 ml min -1  kg -0.83 after the storm. However, despite the tropical storm, turtle 2 returned to the nesting beach, where she successfully re-nested 75 m from her previous nest. Thus, the tropical storm had a minor effect on this female's individual nesting success, even though the storm caused 90% loss nests at Casey Key. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

A comparative modeling analysis of multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in Australia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samuel, Jos M.; Sivapalan, Murugesu

2008-07-01

The effects of long-term natural climate variability and human-induced climate change on rainfall variability have become the focus of much concern and recent research efforts. In this paper, we present the results of a comparative analysis of observed multiscale temporal variability of rainfall in the Perth, Newcastle, and Darwin regions of Australia. This empirical and stochastic modeling analysis explores multiscale rainfall variability, i.e., ranging from short to long term, including within-storm patterns, and intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variabilities, using data taken from each of these regions. The analyses investigated how storm durations, interstorm periods, and average storm rainfall intensities differ for different climate states and demonstrated significant differences in this regard between the three selected regions. In Perth, the average storm intensity is stronger during La Niña years than during El Niño years, whereas in Newcastle and Darwin storm duration is longer during La Niña years. Increase of either storm duration or average storm intensity is the cause of higher average annual rainfall during La Niña years as compared to El Niño years. On the other hand, within-storm variability does not differ significantly between different ENSO states in all three locations. In the case of long-term rainfall variability, the statistical analyses indicated that in Newcastle the long-term rainfall pattern reflects the variability of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index, whereas in Perth and Darwin the long-term variability exhibits a step change in average annual rainfall (up in Darwin and down in Perth) which occurred around 1970. The step changes in Perth and Darwin and the switch in IPO states in Newcastle manifested differently in the three study regions in terms of changes in the annual number of rainy days or the average daily rainfall intensity or both. On the basis of these empirical data analyses, a stochastic rainfall time series model was developed that incorporates the entire range of multiscale variabilities observed in each region, including within-storm, intra-annual, interannual, and interdecadal variability. Such ability to characterize, model, and synthetically generate realistic time series of rainfall intensities is essential for addressing many hydrological problems, including estimation of flood and drought frequencies, pesticide risk assessment, and landslide frequencies.

Pulsing Inertial Oscillation, Supercell Storms, and Surface Mesonetwork Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costen, R. C.; Miller, L. J.

1998-01-01

The pulsing inertial oscillation (PIO) model is a nonlinear, time-dependent, translating vortex solution of the inviscid, compressible fluid dynamic equations in the middle troposphere. The translation of this vortex during a pulse is strikingly similar to that of a supercell storm -- a rotating thunderstorm that can generate tornadoes and hail. Two studies were performed to test the hypothesis that some supercell storms are manifestations of a PIO pulse. The first study applied the model to an intense interior draft whose buoyancy was bounded by a temperature excess of +/- 12 K. The peak updraft speed achieved was 41.5 m/ s and the peak Rossby number was 92.9. The study also pointed to an advanced concept for attaining higher values. The second study applied the PIO model to a supercell storm as a whole and succeeded in replicating its bulk properties, such as mesocyclonic circulation, net mass and moisture influxes, and time track. This study also identified a critical feature of the PIO model that could be tested against storm data: The average vertical draft is downward before the turn in the storm track and upward afterwards. In the conventional theory, the average vertical draft is upward from storm inception until dissipation. These differing draft predictions were compared with the best available data, which are surface mesonetwork data. These data were found to support the PIO model. However, surface data alone are not conclusive, and further measurements are warranted.

Reconstruction of the North Atlantic tropical cyclones in Azores for the last 800 years.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubio-Ingles, Maria Jesus; Sánchez, Guiomar; Trigo, Ricardo; Francus, Pierre; Gonçalves, Vitor; Raposeiro, Pedro; Freitas, Conceiçao; Borges, Paolo; Hernández, Armand; Bao, Roberto; Vázquez-Loureiro, David; Andrade, Cesar; Sáez, Alberto; Giralt, Santiago

2014-05-01

The variability of North Atlantic tropical storms has been the focus of several studies. Duration and seasonality has been attributed to a number of climate patterns and processes such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, Atlantic Meridional Mode, African easterly waves, and atmospheric Rossby waves, but their tracks have been widely related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Several authors have pointed out an increase and track shifting of North Atlantic tropical cyclones since 1995 with increased probability of these turning north far away from the North American continent. However, this cannot be regarded as an infrequent phenomenon as most proxy records from the Atlantic North have shown the existence of similar patterns in the past. Sao Miguel Island (Azores archipelago, Portugal) is settled in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. This location makes this island an excellent natural laboratory to record shifts on North Atlantic tropical storms tracks that can reach the archipelago as low intensity hurricanes (e.g. Nadine in 2012) or downgraded to tropical storm (e.g. Grace in 2009). In the present work, lake sediment records have been used as a proxy sensor of tropical storms. Lagoa Azul is located inside Sete Cidades volcanic caldera and its catchment is characterized by stepped and forested caldera walls. Tropical storms and heavy rainfalls produce a flashy and substantial enhancement in the erosion of the catchment, increasing the sediments reaching the lake by rockfalls deposits (in littoral zones) and flood events deposits (in offshore zones). These flood events can be recognized in the sedimentary record as lobe deposits dominated by terrestrial components. It can be found in the sedimentary record and the bathymetry. Instrumental meteorological data and historical records have been compiled to reconstruct the most recent history of the North Atlantic tropical storms that have landed or affected the Sao Miguel Island (Andrade et al., 2008). In addition, a 1.5 m long core allowed us to recover the whole sedimentary infill of Azul Lake, which has been characterized using a multiproxy (geochemistry, diatoms and chironomid head capsules) approach. The last 800 cal years BP, dated by the use of 14C (plant remains) and 210Pb, have been recorded in the 1.5 m of sediment. The layers of flood events deposits are characterized by low Ti content, no diatoms, and both high organic content and terrestrial plants remains. 14C and 210Pb dates obtained in this core have been used to link the flood events recorded in the offshore zones of the lake with the historical storms hitting the archipelago. According to the results of the studied sediment core, the number of tropical storms hitting the island has increased for the last 50 years. This is in accordance with the findings done by other authors (Liu et al., 2001 and Besonen et al., 2008). Moreover, two other periods located around the 1450s and the 1650s also recorded high number of storms. An increase of typhoons in China and hurricanes reaching the north Atlantic coast of United States during the same periods suggests a global climate pattern that ruled these extreme phenomena. LITERATURE: Andrade, C., Trigo R.M., Freitas, M.C., Gallego M.C., Borges, P., Ramos, A.M. (2008) "Comparing Historic Records of Storm frequency and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) chronology for the Azores region", The Holocene, 18, 745-754 Besonen M.R., Bradley S.B., Mudelsee M., Abbott M.B, Francus P. (2008) "A 1000-year, annually-resolved record of hurricane activity from Boston, Massachussets" Geophysical Research Letters. Vol.35, L14705. Liu, K.-b., Shen, C. and Louie, K.-s. (2001), A 1,000-Year History of Typhoon Landfalls in Guangdong, Southern China, Reconstructed from Chinese Historical Documentary Records. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 91: 453-464. doi: 10.1111/0004-5608.00253

Formation and Development of Diabatic Rossby Vortices in a 10-Year Climatology

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-06-01

subsequent low-level PV generation. 4. The “Perfect Storms ” Cordeira and Bosart (2011; hereafter CB11) noted there were two intense extratropical ...northeast. While more DRVs form during the warm season, a larger fraction of storms that explosively deepen occur during the cold season. Composite...preferentially over warm ocean currents. All DRVs track to the east northeast. While more DRVs form during the warm season, a larger fraction of storms that

Variability of the martian seasonal CO2 cap extent over eight Mars Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Piqueux, Sylvain; Kleinböhl, Armin; Hayne, Paul O.; Kass, David M.; Schofield, John T.; McCleese, Daniel J.

2015-05-01

We present eight Mars Years of nearly continuous tracking of the CO2 seasonal cap edges from Mars Year (MY) 24 to 31 using Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) Mars Climate Sounder (MCS) thermal infrared data. Spatial and temporal resolutions are 1 pixel per degree and 10°Ls (aerocentric longitude of the Sun). The seasonal caps are defined as the regions where the diurnal radiometric temperature variations at ∼32 μm wavelength do not exceed 5 K. With this definition, terrains with small areal fraction of defrosted regolith able to experience measurable diurnal temperature cycles are not mapped as part of the cap. This technique is adequate to distinguish CO2 from H2O ices, and effective during the polar night or under low illumination conditions. The present analysis answers outstanding questions stemming from fragmented observations at visible wavelengths: (1) the previously sparsely documented growth of the North seasonal caps (160° < Ls < 270°) is shown to be repeatable within 1-2° equivalent latitude, and monotonic over the MY 24-31 time period; high repeatability is observed during the retreat of the caps in non-dusty years (∼1° or less equivalent latitude); (2) the MY 25 storm does not seem to have impacted the growth rate, maximal extents, or recession rate of the North seasonal caps, whereas the MY 28 dust storm clearly sped up the recession of the cap (∼2° smaller on average after the storm, during the recession, compared to other years); (3) during non-dusty years, the growth of the South seasonal cap (350° < Ls < 100°) presents noticeable variability (up to ∼4° equivalent latitude near Ls = 20°) with a maximum extent reached near Ls = 90°; (4) the retreat of the Southern seasonal cap (100° < Ls < 310°) exhibits large inter-annual variability, especially near 190° < Ls < 220°; (5) the recession of the MY 25 South seasonal cap is significantly accelerated during the equinox global dust storm, with surface temperatures suggesting increased patchiness or enhanced dust mantling on the CO2 ice. These results suggest that atmospheric temperatures and dust loading are the primary source of variability in an otherwise remarkably repeatable cycle of seasonal cap growth and recession.

Equatorial Wave Activity during NOAA's 2016 El Niño Rapid Response Field Campaign

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiladis, G. N.; Dias, J.; Gehne, M.; Mayer, K.

2016-12-01

The El Niño Rapid Response (ENRR) field campaign targeted equatorial Pacific atmospheric convective activity during January-March 2016 through enhanced observations using dropsondes from the NOAA G-IV aircraft and radiosonde observations from Kiritimati (Christmas) Island and the NOAA research ship the Ronald H. Brown. This presentation examines the equatorial wave activity observed during ENRR and its relationship to tropical convection, and compares this activity to observations of past large El Niño events. The 2015-16 El Niño had much in common with the events during 1982-83 and 1997-98, with similar amplitude sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, but also differed in several key aspects. All of these episodes featured enhanced convectively coupled Kelvin wave activity crossing the entire Pacific basin, which is generally absent during the northern winter seasons of near normal or La Niña SSTs. Prior to the ENRR period during December 2015 a large amplitude Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) was observed, with a convective signal that propagated unusually far to the east ( 150W). This was associated with an eastward displacement of the North Pacific storm track and heavy precipitation along the west coast of North America, broadly matching the large scale behavior of MJO evolution in statistical composites during El Niño. A second MJO-like event occurred during the latter part of February, 2016, but despite a similar convective heating field, the basic state flow was much different than during December, with a well-developed "westerly duct" which favored the intrusion of extratropical Rossby wave energy into the equatorial eastern Pacific region, as can be seen in E Vector fields. This latter event was accompanied by a distinct lack of an extended storm track and associated precipitation along the west coast of North America. Based on the preliminary results of AMIP simulations using observed SSTs, these differences are difficult to reproduce, and are hypothesized to be due to a certain level of "internal variability" within the storm track itself that may have been overriding the large scale forcing by the tropical diabatic heating field.

Hurricane Rita Track Radar Image with Topographic Overlay

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2005-01-01

[figure removed for brevity, see original site] Animation

About the animation: This simulated view of the potential effects of storm surge flooding on Galveston and portions of south Houston was generated with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Although it is protected by a 17-foot sea wall against storm surges, flooding due to storm surges caused by major hurricanes remains a concern. The animation shows regions that, if unprotected, would be inundated with water. The animation depicts flooding in one-meter increments.

About the image: The Gulf Coast from the Mississippi Delta through the Texas coast is shown in this satellite image from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) overlain with data from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), and the predicted storm track for Hurricane Rita. The prediction from the National Weather Service was published Sept. 22 at 4 p.m. Central Time, and shows the expected track center in black with the lighter shaded area indicating the range of potential tracks the storm could take.

Low-lying terrain along the coast has been highlighted using the SRTM elevation data, with areas within 15 feet of sea level shown in red, and within 30 feet in yellow. These areas are more at risk for flooding and the destructive effects of storm surge and high waves.

Data used in this image were acquired by the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission aboard the Space Shuttle Endeavour, launched on Feb. 11, 2000. SRTM used the same radar instrument that comprised the Spaceborne Imaging Radar-C/X-Band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SIR-C/X-SAR) that flew twice on the Space Shuttle Endeavour in 1994. SRTM was designed to collect 3-D measurements of the Earth's surface. To collect the 3-D data, engineers added a 60-meter (approximately 200-foot) mast, installed additional C-band and X-band antennas, and improved tracking and navigation devices. The mission is a cooperative project between NASA, the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) of the U.S. Department of Defense and the German and Italian space agencies. It is managed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif., for NASA's Science Mission Directorate, Washington, D.C.

Location: 28 degrees North latitude, 23.5 degrees West longitude Orientation: North toward the top Size:890 by 1447 kilometers (552 by 897 miles) Image Data: MODIS image and colored SRTM elevation model Date Acquired: February 2000

Assimilation of ZDR Columns for Improving the Spin-Up and Forecasts of Convective Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlin, J.; Gao, J.; Snyder, J.; Ryzhkov, A.

2017-12-01

A primary motivation for assimilating radar reflectivity data is the reduction of spin-up time for modeled convection. To accomplish this, cloud analysis techniques seek to induce and sustain convective updrafts in storm-scale models by inserting temperature and moisture increments and hydrometeor mixing ratios into the model analysis from simple relations with reflectivity. Polarimetric radar data provide additional insight into the microphysical and dynamic structure of convection. In particular, the radar meteorology community has known for decades that convective updrafts cause, and are typically co-located with, differential reflectivity (ZDR) columns - vertical protrusions of enhanced ZDR above the environmental 0˚C level. Despite these benefits, limited work has been done thus far to assimilate dual-polarization radar data into numerical weather prediction models. In this study, we explore the utility of assimilating ZDR columns to improve storm-scale model analyses and forecasts of convection. We modify the existing Advanced Regional Prediction System's (ARPS) cloud analysis routine to adjust model temperature and moisture state variables using detected ZDR columns as proxies for convective updrafts, and compare the resultant cycled analyses and forecasts with those from the original reflectivity-based cloud analysis formulation. Results indicate qualitative and quantitative improvements from assimilating ZDR columns, including more coherent analyzed updrafts, forecast updraft helicity swaths that better match radar-derived rotation tracks, more realistic forecast reflectivity fields, and larger equitable threat scores. These findings support the use of dual-polarization radar signatures to improve storm-scale model analyses and forecasts.

Uncovering the role of the East Asian jet stream and heterogeneities in atmospheric rivers affecting the western United States.

PubMed

Zhang, Wei; Villarini, Gabriele

2018-01-30

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) exert major socioeconomic repercussions along the US West Coast by inducing heavy rainfall, flooding, strong winds, and storm surge. Despite the significant societal and economic repercussions of these storms, our understanding of the physical drivers responsible for their interannual variability is limited, with different climate modes identified as possible mechanisms. Here we show that the Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnections/patterns and the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ) exhibit a strong linkage with the total frequency of ARs making landfall over the western United States, much stronger than the other potential climate modes previously considered. While our findings indicate that the PJ pattern and EASJ are the most relevant climate modes driving the overall AR activity, we also uncover heterogeneities in AR tracks. Specifically, we show that not all ARs making landfall along the West Coast come from a single population, but rather that it is possible to stratify these storms into three clusters. While the PJ pattern and EASJ are major drivers of AR activity for two clusters, the cluster that primarily affects the US Southwest is largely driven by other climate modes [El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic meridional mode (AMM), the Pacific-North America (PNA) teleconnection pattern, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO)]. Therefore, important regional differences exist and this information can substantially enhance our ability to predict and prepare for these storms and their impacts.

Interplanetary radio storms. II - Emission levels and solar wind speed in the range 0.05-0.8 AU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bougeret, J.-L.; Fainberg, J.; Stone, R. G.

1984-01-01

Storms of interplanetary type III radio bursts (IP storms) are commonly observed in the interplanetary medium by the ISEE-3 radio instrument. This instrument has the capability of accurately determining the arrival direction of the radio emission. At each observing frequency, the storm radio sources are tracked as they cross the line-of-sight to the sun. Using a simple model, the emission levels are determined at a number of radio frequencies for four separate storms. The IP storm radiation is found to occur in regions of enhanced density at levels of 0.05 to 0.8 AU. The density in these enhancements falls off faster than R(-2). The solar wind speed in the storm region is also measured. The analysis is consistent with steady conditions in the storm region during a few days around the III storm burst radio emission at the harmonic of the local plasma frequency.

Silvicultural lessons from the December 2000 ice storms

Treesearch

Don C. Bragg; Michael G. Shelton; Eric Heitzman

2002-01-01

In December of 2000, two destructive ice storms covered Arkansas, affecing 40% of the state's forestlands. Damage estimates ran into the hundreds of millions of dollars, with much of the loss occuring in loblolly pine () plantations. A study was initiated in south-central Arkansas to track the recovery of damaged trees on these...

Rapid shelf‐wide cooling response of a stratified coastal ocean to hurricanes

PubMed Central

Miles, Travis; Xu, Yi; Kohut, Josh; Schofield, Oscar; Glenn, Scott

2017-01-01

Abstract Large uncertainty in the predicted intensity of tropical cyclones (TCs) persists compared to the steadily improving skill in the predicted TC tracks. This intensity uncertainty has its most significant implications in the coastal zone, where TC impacts to populated shorelines are greatest. Recent studies have demonstrated that rapid ahead‐of‐eye‐center cooling of a stratified coastal ocean can have a significant impact on hurricane intensity forecasts. Using observation‐validated, high‐resolution ocean modeling, the stratified coastal ocean cooling processes observed in two U.S. Mid‐Atlantic hurricanes were investigated: Hurricane Irene (2011)—with an inshore Mid‐Atlantic Bight (MAB) track during the late summer stratified coastal ocean season—and Tropical Storm Barry (2007)—with an offshore track during early summer. For both storms, the critical ahead‐of‐eye‐center depth‐averaged force balance across the entire MAB shelf included an onshore wind stress balanced by an offshore pressure gradient. This resulted in onshore surface currents opposing offshore bottom currents that enhanced surface to bottom current shear and turbulent mixing across the thermocline, resulting in the rapid cooling of the surface layer ahead‐of‐eye‐center. Because the same baroclinic and mixing processes occurred for two storms on opposite ends of the track and seasonal stratification envelope, the response appears robust. It will be critical to forecast these processes and their implications for a wide range of future storms using realistic 3‐D coupled atmosphere‐ocean models to lower the uncertainty in predictions of TC intensities and impacts and enable coastal populations to better respond to increasing rapid intensification threats in an era of rising sea levels. PMID:28944132

Use of Remote Sensing Data to Enhance NWS Storm Damage Toolkit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlove, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; White, Kris; Burks, Jason; Stellman, Keith; Smith, Mathew

2012-01-01

In the wake of a natural disaster such as a tornado, the National Weather Service (NWS) is required to provide a very detailed and timely storm damage assessment to local, state and federal homeland security officials. The Post ]Storm Data Acquisition (PSDA) procedure involves the acquisition and assembly of highly perishable data necessary for accurate post ]event analysis and potential integration into a geographic information system (GIS) available to its end users and associated decision makers. Information gained from the process also enables the NWS to increase its knowledge of extreme events, learn how to better use existing equipment, improve NWS warning programs, and provide accurate storm intensity and damage information to the news media and academia. To help collect and manage all of this information, forecasters in NWS Southern Region are currently developing a Storm Damage Assessment Toolkit (SDAT), which incorporates GIS ]capable phones and laptops into the PSDA process by tagging damage photography, location, and storm damage details with GPS coordinates for aggregation within the GIS database. However, this tool alone does not fully integrate radar and ground based storm damage reports nor does it help to identify undetected storm damage regions. In many cases, information on storm damage location (beginning and ending points, swath width, etc.) from ground surveys is incomplete or difficult to obtain. Geographic factors (terrain and limited roads in rural areas), manpower limitations, and other logistical constraints often prevent the gathering of a comprehensive picture of tornado or hail damage, and may allow damage regions to go undetected. Molthan et al. (2011) have shown that high resolution satellite data can provide additional valuable information on storm damage tracks to augment this database. This paper presents initial development to integrate satellitederived damage track information into the SDAT for near real ]time use by forecasters and decision makers.

Use of Remote Sensing Data to Enhance NWS Storm Damage Toolkit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jedlovec, G.; Molthan, A.; White, K.; Burks, J.; Stellman, K.; Smith, M. R.

2012-12-01

In the wake of a natural disaster such as a tornado, the National Weather Service (NWS) is required to provide a very detailed and timely storm damage assessment to local, state and federal homeland security officials. The Post-Storm Data Acquisition (PSDA) procedure involves the acquisition and assembly of highly perishable data necessary for accurate post-event analysis and potential integration into a geographic information system (GIS) available to its end users and associated decision makers. Information gained from the process also enables the NWS to increase its knowledge of extreme events, learn how to better use existing equipment, improve NWS warning programs, and provide accurate storm intensity and damage information to the news media and academia. To help collect and manage all of this information, forecasters in NWS Southern Region are currently developing a Storm Damage Assessment Toolkit (SDAT), which incorporates GIS-capable phones and laptops into the PSDA process by tagging damage photography, location, and storm damage details with GPS coordinates for aggregation within the GIS database. However, this tool alone does not fully integrate radar and ground based storm damage reports nor does it help to identify undetected storm damage regions. In many cases, information on storm damage location (beginning and ending points, swath width, etc.) from ground surveys is incomplete or difficult to obtain. Geographic factors (terrain and limited roads in rural areas), manpower limitations, and other logistical constraints often prevent the gathering of a comprehensive picture of tornado or hail damage, and may allow damage regions to go undetected. Molthan et al. (2011) have shown that high resolution satellite data can provide additional valuable information on storm damage tracks to augment this database. This paper presents initial development to integrate satellite-derived damage track information into the SDAT for near real-time use by forecasters and decision makers.

On the Variability of Wilson Currents by Storm Type and Phase

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Deierling, Wiebke; Kalb, Christina; Mach, Douglas; Liu, Chuntao; Peterson, Michael; Blakeslee, Richard

2014-01-01

Storm total conduction currents from electrified clouds are thought to play a major role in maintaining the potential difference between the earth's surface and the upper atmosphere within the Global Electric Circuit (GEC). However, it is not entirely known how the contributions of these currents vary by cloud type and phase of the clouds life cycle. Estimates of storm total conduction currents were obtained from data collected over two decades during multiple field campaigns involving the NASA ER-2 aircraft. In this study the variability of these currents by cloud type and lifecycle is investigated. We also compared radar derived microphysical storm properties with total storm currents to investigate whether these storm properties can be used to describe the current variability of different electrified clouds. The ultimate goal is to help improve modeling of the GEC via quantification and improved parameterization of the conduction current contribution of different cloud types.

An evaluation of the precipitation distribution associated with landfalling tropical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Atallah, Eyad H.

Several recent landfalling tropical cyclones (e.g. Dennis, Floyd, and Irene 1999) have highlighted a need for a refinement in the forecasting paradigms and techniques in the area of quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). Accordingly, several landfalling tropical storms were composited based on the precipitation distribution relative to the cyclone track (i.e. left of, right of, or along track), and cases from each composite were examined using a potential vorticity (PV) and quasi-geostrophic (QG) framework. Results indicate that a left of track precipitation distribution (e.g. Floyd 1999) is characteristic of tropical systems undergoing extratropical transition (ET). In these cases, a significant positively tilted mid-latitude trough approaches the cyclone from the northwest, shifting precipitation to the north-northwest of the cyclone. PV redistribution through diabatic heating then leads to enhanced ridging over and downstream of the tropical cyclone resulting in an increase in the cyclonic advection of vorticity by the thermal wind. Precipitation distribution is heaviest to the right of the track of the storm when downstream intensification of the ridge is important (e.g. David, 1979). Enhancement of the downstream ridge ahead of a weak mid-latitude trough accentuates the PV gradient between the tropical system and the downstream ridge. This, in combination with a slight acceleration in the movement of the tropical system, produces a region of enhanced positive PV advection (implied ascent) between the tropical system and the downstream ridge. Precipitation is heaviest along/very near the track of a storm when shear values are low and/or oriented along the track of the tropical cyclone (e.g. Fran 1996). Without large scale forcing for vertical motion associated with a midlatitude trough, most of the ascent remains concentrated near the storm core in the region of greatest diabatic heating and maximum wind speeds. In all cases, the diabatic enhancement of the downstream ridge is instrumental in the redistribution of precipitation about the tropical system. Unfortunately, this process is not well simulated in operational forecast models, leading to systematic errors in QPF.

Augmentation of Early Intensity Forecasting in Tropical Cyclones

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-09-30

modeled storms to the measured signatures. APPROACH The deviation-angle variance technique was introduced in Pineros et al. (2008) as a procedure to...the algorithm developed in the first year of the project. The new method used best-track storm fixes as the points to compute the DAV signal. We...In the North Atlantic basin, RMSE for tropical storm category is 11 kt, hurricane categories 1-3 is 12.5 kt, category 4 is 18 kt and category 5 is

Forecasters Handbook for Japan and Adjacent Sea Areas

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-06-01

a strengthening Siberian high pressure cell. 4.5.1.1 Synoptic Patterns Summer is a season of reduced extratropical storm activity over the East China...the waters adjacent to eastern Asia, summer is a period of reduced extratropical storm activity over the Yellow Sea. Figure 2-6 (page 2-23) depicts...since the southeastern part of the sea is 6-15 closer to the extratropical storm tracks discussed in section 6.3.1.1 above. 6.3.1.3 Upper Level Winds

Lightning Sensors for Observing, Tracking and Nowcasting Severe Weather

PubMed Central

Price, Colin

2008-01-01

Severe and extreme weather is a major natural hazard all over the world, often resulting in major natural disasters such as hail storms, tornados, wind storms, flash floods, forest fires and lightning damages. While precipitation, wind, hail, tornados, turbulence, etc. can only be observed at close distances, lightning activity in these damaging storms can be monitored at all spatial scales, from local (using very high frequency [VHF] sensors), to regional (using very low frequency [VLF] sensors), and even global scales (using extremely low frequency [ELF] sensors). Using sensors that detect the radio waves emitted by each lightning discharge, it is now possible to observe and track continuously distant thunderstorms using ground networks of sensors. In addition to the number of lightning discharges, these sensors can also provide information on lightning characteristics such as the ratio between intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground lightning, the polarity of the lightning discharge, peak currents, charge removal, etc. It has been shown that changes in some of these lightning characteristics during thunderstorms are often related to changes in the severity of the storms. In this paper different lightning observing systems are described, and a few examples are provided showing how lightning may be used to monitor storm hazards around the globe, while also providing the possibility of supplying short term forecasts, called nowcasting. PMID:27879700

Increasing cardiopulmonary emergency visits by long-range transported Asian dust storms in Taiwan.

PubMed

Chan, Chang-Chuan; Chuang, Kai-Jen; Chen, Wen-Jone; Chang, Wei-Tien; Lee, Chung-Te; Peng, Chi-Ming

2008-03-01

This study aims to explore whether Asian dust storms can affect health after 4000 km long-range transport from their origins to downwind areas. Asian dust storms reaching Taipei, Taiwan are tracked by satellite images and confirmed by backward trajectory analysis and ground air pollution monitoring between 1995 and 2002. Our outcome variables include emergency visits for ischaemic heart diseases (ICD-9-CM 410-411, 414), cerebrovascular diseases (ICD-9-CM 430-437), and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) (ICD-9-CM 493, 496) from the National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH). We use simple paired t-test and Poisson regression models to compare difference in emergency visits, air pollution levels and meteorological conditions for the pairs of Asian dust events and pre-dust periods. There were 39 high dust events with PM(10) greater than 90 microg/m(3) and another 46 low dust events with PM(10) less than 90 microg/m(3). Compared to their pre-dust periods, PM(10) concentrations are significantly increased by 77 microg/m(3) per event for the high dust events. Asian dust storms increase cardiopulmonary emergency visits during storm-affecting periods in Taipei when ambient PM(10) concentrations are above 90 microg/m(3). Compared to their pre-dust periods, emergency visits for ischaemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and COPD during high dust events are increased by 0.7 case (35%), 0.7 case (20%), and 0.9 case (20%) per event, respectively, by paired t-tests. By comparing the model-predicted to the observed emergency visits, we find emergency visits for cardiovascular diseases (ICD-9-CM 410-411, 414, 430-437) were significantly increased by 2.9 cases (67%) per event for the 39 high Asian dust events.

Possibility Of Generating Significant Storm Surge On The Western Seaboard Of Metro Manila, Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suarez, J. K. B.; Santiago, J. T.; Tablazon, J. P.; Dasallas, L. L.; Goting, P. G.; Lagmay, A. M. A.

2016-12-01

The Philippines, located in the Northwestern Pacific Typhoon gateway to Asia, is considered one of the most susceptible to tropical cyclone related hazards. One of the most disastrous effects of tropical cyclones is storm surge. With Metro Manila being a coastal area and the most populous region in the country, with approximately 12.8 million people residing in it, it is of great interest to determine the possibility of generating significant level of storm surge in the country's capital. The necessity to determine the storm surge susceptibility was brought upon by the effect of Typhoon Haiyan on eastern Visayas in 2013, where more than 6,000 people died and resulted to about 2.86 billion dollars' worth of damages. To achieve the objectives, the actual tracks and wind speed of historical typhoon (JMA data since 1951) was mapped for the Philippines. The simulated wind speed map shows that the maximum winds are mostly experienced on the eastern side of the country; with a considerable decrease in wind intensity as the typhoon reaches the western seaboard due to land surface. The Haiyan-strength wind speed is then applied to the actual historical typhoon tracks to determine the hypothetical values of wind speed as a typhoon with Haiyan intensity reached Metro Manila. Results show that, if a typhoon with a Haiyan-like intensity is to traverse tracks like those of Rita 1978, Collen 1992, Sybil 1995, Bebinca 2000 and Xangsane 2000, there is a huge possibility of generating storm surge height of 3.9 to 5.6 m in the western seaboard of Metro Manila, even after considering the diminishing effect of surface friction.

Comparison of Microbial and Chemical Source Tracking Markers To Identify Fecal Contamination Sources in the Humber River (Toronto, Ontario, Canada) and Associated Storm Water Outfalls.

PubMed

Staley, Zachery R; Grabuski, Josey; Sverko, Ed; Edge, Thomas A

2016-11-01

Storm water runoff is a major source of pollution, and understanding the components of storm water discharge is essential to remediation efforts and proper assessment of risks to human and ecosystem health. In this study, culturable Escherichia coli and ampicillin-resistant E. coli levels were quantified and microbial source tracking (MST) markers (including markers for general Bacteroidales spp., human, ruminant/cow, gull, and dog) were detected in storm water outfalls and sites along the Humber River in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, and enumerated via endpoint PCR and quantitative PCR (qPCR). Additionally, chemical source tracking (CST) markers specific for human wastewater (caffeine, carbamazepine, codeine, cotinine, acetaminophen, and acesulfame) were quantified. Human and gull fecal sources were detected at all sites, although concentrations of the human fecal marker were higher, particularly in outfalls (mean outfall concentrations of 4.22 log 10 copies, expressed as copy numbers [CN]/100 milliliters for human and 0.46 log 10 CN/100 milliliters for gull). Higher concentrations of caffeine, acetaminophen, acesulfame, E. coli, and the human fecal marker were indicative of greater raw sewage contamination at several sites (maximum concentrations of 34,800 ng/liter, 5,120 ng/liter, 9,720 ng/liter, 5.26 log 10 CFU/100 ml, and 7.65 log 10 CN/100 ml, respectively). These results indicate pervasive sewage contamination at storm water outfalls and throughout the Humber River, with multiple lines of evidence identifying Black Creek and two storm water outfalls with prominent sewage cross-connection problems requiring remediation. Limited data are available on specific sources of pollution in storm water, though our results indicate the value of using both MST and CST methodologies to more reliably assess sewage contamination in impacted watersheds. Storm water runoff is one of the most prominent non-point sources of biological and chemical contaminants which can potentially degrade water quality and pose risks to human and ecosystem health. Therefore, identifying fecal contamination in storm water runoff and outfalls is essential for remediation efforts to reduce risks to public health. This study employed multiple methods of identifying levels and sources of fecal contamination in both river and storm water outfall sites, evaluating the efficacy of using culture-based enumeration of E. coli, molecular methods of determining the source(s) of contamination, and CST markers as indicators of fecal contamination. The results identified pervasive human sewage contamination in storm water outfalls and throughout an urban watershed and highlight the utility of using both MST and CST to identify raw sewage contamination. © Crown copyright 2016.

Comparison of Microbial and Chemical Source Tracking Markers To Identify Fecal Contamination Sources in the Humber River (Toronto, Ontario, Canada) and Associated Storm Water Outfalls

PubMed Central

Grabuski, Josey; Sverko, Ed; Edge, Thomas A.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT Storm water runoff is a major source of pollution, and understanding the components of storm water discharge is essential to remediation efforts and proper assessment of risks to human and ecosystem health. In this study, culturable Escherichia coli and ampicillin-resistant E. coli levels were quantified and microbial source tracking (MST) markers (including markers for general Bacteroidales spp., human, ruminant/cow, gull, and dog) were detected in storm water outfalls and sites along the Humber River in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, and enumerated via endpoint PCR and quantitative PCR (qPCR). Additionally, chemical source tracking (CST) markers specific for human wastewater (caffeine, carbamazepine, codeine, cotinine, acetaminophen, and acesulfame) were quantified. Human and gull fecal sources were detected at all sites, although concentrations of the human fecal marker were higher, particularly in outfalls (mean outfall concentrations of 4.22 log10 copies, expressed as copy numbers [CN]/100 milliliters for human and 0.46 log10 CN/100 milliliters for gull). Higher concentrations of caffeine, acetaminophen, acesulfame, E. coli, and the human fecal marker were indicative of greater raw sewage contamination at several sites (maximum concentrations of 34,800 ng/liter, 5,120 ng/liter, 9,720 ng/liter, 5.26 log10 CFU/100 ml, and 7.65 log10 CN/100 ml, respectively). These results indicate pervasive sewage contamination at storm water outfalls and throughout the Humber River, with multiple lines of evidence identifying Black Creek and two storm water outfalls with prominent sewage cross-connection problems requiring remediation. Limited data are available on specific sources of pollution in storm water, though our results indicate the value of using both MST and CST methodologies to more reliably assess sewage contamination in impacted watersheds. IMPORTANCE Storm water runoff is one of the most prominent non-point sources of biological and chemical contaminants which can potentially degrade water quality and pose risks to human and ecosystem health. Therefore, identifying fecal contamination in storm water runoff and outfalls is essential for remediation efforts to reduce risks to public health. This study employed multiple methods of identifying levels and sources of fecal contamination in both river and storm water outfall sites, evaluating the efficacy of using culture-based enumeration of E. coli, molecular methods of determining the source(s) of contamination, and CST markers as indicators of fecal contamination. The results identified pervasive human sewage contamination in storm water outfalls and throughout an urban watershed and highlight the utility of using both MST and CST to identify raw sewage contamination. PMID:27542934

Two centuries of observed atmospheric variability and change over the North Sea region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stendel, Martin; van den Besselaar, Else; Hannachi, Abdel; Kent, Elizabeth; Lefebvre, Christiana; van Oldenborgh, Geert Jan; Rosenhagen, Gudrun; Schenk, Frederik; van der Schrier, Gerard

2015-04-01

Situated in northwestern Europe, the North Sea region is under influence of air masses from subtropical to arctic origin, and thus exhibits significant natural climate variability. As the land areas surrounding the North Sea are densely populated, climate change is an important issue in terms of e.g. coastal protection, fishery and trade. This study is part of the NOSCCA initiative (North Sea Region Climate Change Assessment) and presents observed variability and changes in atmospheric parameters during the last roughly 200 years. Circulation patterns show considerable decadal variability. In recent decades, a northward shift of storm tracks and increased cyclonic activity has been observed. There is also an indication of increased persistence of weather types. The wind climate is dominated by large multidecadal variability, and no robust long-term trends can be identified in the available datasets. There is a clear positive trend in near-surface temperatures, in particular during spring and winter. Over the region as a whole, no clear long-term precipitation trends are visible, although regional indications exist for an increased risk of extreme precipitation events.

Interplanetary radio storms. 2: Emission levels and solar wind speed in the range 0.05-0.8 AU

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bougeret, J. L.; Fainberg, J.; Stone, R. G.

1982-01-01

Storms of interplanetary type III radio bursts (IP storms) are commonly observed in the interplanetry medium by the ISEE-3 radio instrument. This instrument has the capability of accurately determining the arrival direction of the radio emission. At each observing frequency, the storm radio sources are tracked as they cross the line-of-sight to the Sun. Usng a simple model, the emission levels are determined at a number of radio frequencies for four separate storms. The IP storm radiation is found to occur in regions of enhanced density at levels of 0.05 to 0.8 AU. The density in these enhancements falls off faster than R(-2). The solar wind speed in the storm region is also measured. The analysis is consistent with steady conditions in the storm region during a few days around the central meridian passage of the storm. The comparison with average in situ density measurements compiled from the HELIOS 1-2 observations favors type III storm burst radio emission at the harmonic of the local plasma frequency.

Report: EPA Needs to Track Whether Its Major Municipal Settlements for Combined Sewer Overflows Benefit Water Quality

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Report #15-P-0280, September 16, 2015. By tracking environmental results, the EPA can show how the $32 billion that communities are spending to address discharges of untreated sewage and contaminated storm water improves water quality.

Effects of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on sea level anomalies along the Gulf of Mexico coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kennedy, Andrew J.; Griffin, Melissa L.; Morey, Steven L.; Smith, Shawn R.; O'Brien, James J.

2007-05-01

Analyses of daily sea level data show the impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). Data from three stations (St. Petersburg, Florida, Pensacola, Florida, and Galveston, Texas), all of which have at least 50 years of daily observations, are processed to identify the interannual signals. Although low frequency (interannual) signals in the sea level anomaly time series are not clearly evident, a low frequency modulation of the extreme anomaly events (upper 10% or lower 10% of the distributions) is identified. Results show that sea level variability is seasonally dependent at all stations, with maximum variability in the winter months. In the eastern GOM, low sea level events in the winter months are more frequent during El Niño (warm phase) conditions when compared to a neutral ENSO phase. This is consistent with ENSO-related changes in the location where extratropical atmospheric low pressure systems form and in the tracks of these weather systems. The impacts of tropical systems in the summer through early fall months on coastal sea level in the GOM are shown by infrequent extreme high and low anomalies coinciding with individual storms. However, the number of storms affecting the data record from a particular sea level station is too small to confirm ENSO-related variability. Statistical methods are employed to demonstrate a significant link between extreme sea level anomalies in the GOM and ENSO during the October to March period.

Storm Surge Measurement with an Airborne Scanning Radar Altimeter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wright, C. W.; Walsh, E. J.; Krabill, W. B.; Shaffer, W. A.; Baig, S. R.; Peng, M.; Pietrafesa, L. J.; Garcia, A. W.; Marks, F. D., Jr.; Black, P. G.;

Total Lightning as a Severe Weather Diagnostic in Strongly Baroclinic Systems in Central Florida

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, E.; Boldi, B.; Matlin, A.; Weber, M.; Hodanish, S.; Sharp, D.; Goodman, Steven J.; Raghavan, R.; Buechler, Dennis

1998-01-01

The establishment of a consistent behavior of total lightning activity in severe convective storms has been challenged historically by the relative scarcity of these storms combined with the difficulties inherent in documenting the (dominant) intracloud component of total lightning. This situation has changed recently with the abundance of severe weather in central Florida during 1997-98, including the tornado outbreak of February 23, 1998, and with the development of the operational LISDAD system (Boldi et al, this conference) to document these cases. This paper is concerned primarily with the behavior of total lightning in severe weather during the dry season when the Florida atmosphere is most strongly baroclinic. It has been found that all three manifestations of severe weather (ie., hall, wind, tornadoes) are consistently preceded by rapid increases in total flash rate with values often in excess of 100 flashes/minute. Preliminary analysis suggests that this systematic electrical behavior observed in summertime 'pulse severe' storms (Hodanish et al, this conference) also pertains to the more strongly baroclinic, long-track tornadic storms (more common in Oklahoma), as evidenced by the February 23, 1998 outbreak case in central Florida exhibiting two long-tracking F3 tornadoes. The largest flash rates in severe weather anywhere occur in baroclinic conditions at midlatitude. The physical plausibility of flash rates in excess of 100 per minute will be assessed. We will also consider the differences in storm structure for high flash rate storms that are non-severe.

Challenges associated with the prediction of tropical storms in the Bay of Bengal when using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machineni, N.; Veldore, V.; Mesquita, M. D. S.

2016-12-01

Accuracy in predicting tropical cyclones over low lying coastal regions is pivotal for understanding storm tracks and their subsequent impacts. The present study highlights the challenges in predicting the Bay of Bengal (BOB) cyclone "AILA" (during 23rd to 25th May 2009) using the Weather Research and Forecast model, Advanced research core module (WRF-ARW). The model configuration uses a two-way interactive nested domain with 10 km resolution over BOB. Its initial and boundary conditions are driven from the NCEP FNL operational global analysis data at every 6 hours. A total of 74 sensitivity experiments were conducted to test the following factors and levels: a) parametrization schemes: two microphysics and two cumulus physics schemes used to select appropriate combination over study region, b) model domain:including/excluding Himalayas, c) vertical resolution: eight various increasing/decreasing vertical levels have been carried out to evaluate the storm track dependencies on these factors, d) domain size: and increasing (decreasing) the grid points of model domain in east-west direction shows that approximately 50-100 km track difference for every two points. Our results show that, the experiments including the Himalayas provide a better representation of cyclone track and speed. In order to reduce the computational time required to do such tremendous amount of experiment, we hypothesize to use statistical tools of experimental design which can involve all the factors that determine the cyclone tracks. A proper experimental design might provide unbiased results and also we might need less number of experiments.

Challenges associated with the prediction of tropical storms in the Bay of Bengal when using the WRF model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machineni, Nehru; Veldore, Vidyunmala; Mesquita, Michel d. S.

2017-04-01

Accuracy in predicting tropical cyclones over low lying coastal regions is pivotal for understanding storm tracks and their subsequent impacts. The present study highlights the challenges in predicting the Bay of Bengal (BOB) cyclone "AILA" (during 23rd to 25th May 2009) using the Weather Research and Forecast model, Advanced research core module (WRF-ARW). The model configuration uses a two-way interactive nested domain with 10 km resolution over BOB. Its initial and boundary conditions are driven from the NCEP FNL operational global analysis data at every 6 hours. A total of 74 sensitivity experiments were conducted to test the following factors and levels: a) parametrization schemes: two microphysics and two cumulus physics schemes used to select appropriate combination over study region, b) model domain:including/excluding Himalayas, c) vertical resolution: eight various increasing/decreasing vertical levels have been carried out to evaluate the storm track dependencies on these factors, d) domain size: and increasing (decreasing) the grid points of model domain in east-west direction shows that approximately 50-100 km track difference for every two points. Our results show that, the experiments including the Himalayas provide a better representation of cyclone track and speed. In order to reduce the computational time required to do such tremendous amount of experiment, we hypothesize to use statistical tools of experimental design which can involve all the factors that determine the cyclone tracks. A proper experimental design might provide unbiased results and also we might need less number of experiments.

The role of synoptic weather variability in Greenland ice sheet dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walker, J. M.; Radic, V.

2017-12-01

Much of the large uncertainty in predictions of future global sea level rise is due to our limited understanding of Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) motion and its interactions with climate. Over the next century, climate models predict that the GrIS will experience not only gradual warming, but also changes in atmospheric circulation, hydrology, and weather, including a northward shift of the North Atlantic storm track, with greater frequency and intensity of rain storms over the GrIS. Recent studies of GrIS dynamics have focused on the effects of increased seasonal mean meltwater on ice velocities, finding only a modest impact due to compensation by subglacial drainage systems, but subglacial hydraulic theory indicates that variability on shorter timescales is also relevant: short-term surges in meltwater or rainfall can overload drainage systems at rates faster than they can adjust, leading to water pressure spikes and ice acceleration. If the magnitude or frequency of these transient ice accelerations increase substantially as synoptic weather patterns change over the next century, there could be a significant cumulative impact on seasonal mean ice velocities. However, this issue has not been addressed in the literature and represents a major source of uncertainty. In this study, we investigate the role of synoptic weather variability in GrIS dynamics, with the ultimate goal of evaluating the relationships between extreme weather events and ice sheet flow in different seasons and regions of the GrIS. As a first step, we apply the machine learning technique of self-organizing maps to atmospheric reanalysis data to categorize the predominant synoptic weather systems over the GrIS domain, evaluating atmospheric moisture transport and rainfall to assess the impacts of each weather system on GrIS surface hydrology. The preliminary results presented here will be used in conjunction with ice velocity satellite measurements in future work, to identify any correlations between seasonal mean GrIS velocities and the frequency or intensity of storms during the season.

WSR-88D Cell Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Mark M.

1998-01-01

This report documents the Applied Meteorology Unit's evaluation of the Cell Trends display as a tool for radar operators to use in their evaluation of storm cell strength. The objective of the evaluation is to assess the utility of the WSR-88D graphical Cell Trends display for local radar cell interpretation in support of the 45th Weather Squadron (45 WS), Spaceflight Meteorology Group (SMG), and National Weather Service (NWS) Melbourne (MLB) operational requirements. The analysis procedure was to identify each cell and track the maximum reflectivity, height of maximum reflectivity, storm top, storm base, hail and severe hail probability, cell-based Vertically Integrated Liquid (VIL) and core aspect ratio using WATADS Build 9.0 cell trends information. One problem noted in the analysis phase was that the Storm Cell Identification and Tracking (SCIT) algorithm had a difficult time tracking the small cells associated with the Florida weather regimes. The analysis indicated numerous occasions when a cell track would end or an existing cell would be give a new ID in the middle of its life cycle. This investigation has found that most cells, which produce hail or microburst events, have discernable Cell Trends signatures. Forecasters should monitor the PUP's Cell Trends display for cells that show rapid (1 scan) changes in both the heights of maximum reflectivity and cell-based VIEL. It is important to note that this a very limited data set (four case days). Fifty-two storm cells were analyzed during those four days. The above mentioned t=ds, increase in the two cell attributes for hail events and decrease in the two cell attributes for wind events were noted in most of the cells. The probability of detection was 88% for both events. The False Alarm Rate (FAR) was a 36% for hail events and a respectable 25% for microburst events. In addition the Heidke Skill Score (HSS) is 0.65 for hail events and 0.67 for microburst events. For random forecast the HSS is 0 and that a perfect score is 1.

A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Camargo, S. J.; Bieli, M.; Sobel, A. H.; Evans, J. L.; Hall, T. M.

2017-12-01

When moving into midlatitude regions, tropical cyclones often undergo a process called extratropical transition (ET), in which they radically change their physical structure and develop characteristics typical of extratropical cyclones. We present the first climatology of ET that encompasses all major global tropical cyclone basins and is based on a consistent set of data, time period, and method. Using best-track data from 1979-2015 to define the tracks of the storm centers, we identify storms that undergo ET by means of their paths in the cyclone phase space (CPS), calculated from geopotential height fields in reanalysis datasets. Two reanalyses are employed and compared for this purpose, the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis (JRA-55) and the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis (ERA-Interim). The results are used to study the seasonal and geographical distributions of storms undergoing ET, inter-basin differences in the statistics of ET occurrence, and the differences between the ETs defined by CPS and those defined by the 'extratropical' labels (determined subjectively by human forecasters using a wider range of data) in the best-track archives. About 50% of all storms in the North Atlantic and the Western North Pacific undergo ET. In the southern hemisphere, ET fractions range from about 20% in the South Indian Ocean and the Australian region to 40% in the South Pacific. The North Atlantic and Western North Pacific exhibit somewhat different seasonal cycles, with the probability of ET maximizing later in the North Atlantic, but having a local minimum in the earlier part of the peak season in both basins. Southern hemispheric basins have much less pronounced seasonal cycles. The classification of ET storms based on JRA-55 agrees better with the best-track data than the ERA-Interim classification. In the North Atlantic and the Western North Pacific, the differences are small and both reanalyses achieve F1 performance scores of at least 0.8, but JRA-55 has a higher classification skill in all other basins.Due to the global scope and consistent methodology, the results presented are well suited to serve as a benchmark for other studies including research on ET under climate change scenarios.

Satellite altimetry and the intensification of Hurricane Katrina

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scharroo, Remko; Smith, Walter H. F.; Lillibridge, John L.

Remotely sensed infrared images of Hurricane Katrina taken on 26, 27, and 28 August 2005 (Figure 1, left panels) show the aerial extent of the cloud cover and the central “eye” increasing as the storm that swamped areas of the U.S. Gulf Coast intensified. Computer animations of such image sequences show forecasters the tracks of storms and are a familiar staple of weather news. Less well known is the role that satellite altimetry plays both in forecasting conditions that can intensify a tropical storm and in observing the storm conditions at the sea surface.Satellite altimeter data indicate that Katrina intensified over areas of anomalously high dynamic topography rather than areas of unusually warm surface waters. Altimeter data from Katrina also for the first time observed the building of a storm surge.

The JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System: Data and Tools for Researchers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knosp, B. W.; Ao, C. O.; Chao, Y.; Dang, V.; Garay, M.; Haddad, Z.; Hristova-Veleva, S.; Lambrigtsen, B.; Li, P. P.; Park, K.; Poulsen, W. L.; Rosenman, M. A.; Su, H.; Vane, D.; Vu, Q. A.; Willis, J. K.; Wu, D.

2008-12-01

The JPL Tropical Cyclone Information System (TCIS) is now open to the public. This web portal is designed to assist researchers by providing a one-stop shop for hurricane related data and analysis tools. While there are currently many places that offer storm data, plots, and other information, none offer an extensive archive of data files and images in a common space. The JPL TCIS was created to fill this gap. As currently configured, the JPL Tropical Cyclone Portal has three main features for researchers. The first feature consists of storm-scale data and plots for both observed and modeled data. As of the TCIS' first release, the entire 2005 storm season has been populated with data and plots from AIRS, MLS, AMSU-A, QuikSCAT, Argo floats, WRF models, GPS, and others. Storm data is subsetted to a 1000x1000 km window around the hurricane track for all six oceanic cyclone basins, and all the available data during the life time of any storm can be downloaded with one mouse click. Users can also view pre-generated storm-scale plots from all these data sets that are all co-located to the same temporal and spatial parameters. Work is currently underway to backfill all storm seasons to 1998 with as many relevant data sets as possible. The second offering from this web portal are large-scale data sets and associated visualization tools powered by Google Maps. On this interactive map, researchers can view a particular storm's intensity and track. Users may also overlay large-scale data such as aerosol maps from MODIS and MISR, and a blended microwave sea-surface temperature (SST) to gain an understanding of the large-scale environment of the storm. For example, by using this map, the cold sea-surface temperature wake can be tracked as a storm passes by. The third feature of this portal deals with interactive model and data analysis. A single-parameter analysis tools has recently been developed and added to this portal where users can plot maps, profiles, and histograms of any given data set on this portal and also get several statistics, such as the mean, standard deviation, and median of the data they are viewing. Also available is the ability to compare and condition data sets with each other. For example, users can choose to view sea surface temperature when wind speed is X m/s. Additional data sets continue to be added to this tool and it will eventually expand to include multi- parameter analyses. In this presentation, we will describe the current configuration of the JPL Tropical Cyclone Portal and demonstrate how it will be an asset to researchers. Future plans for the site will also be discussed.

A Summary of the Naval Postgraduate School Research Program.

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-09-30

new model will now be used in a variety of oceanic investigations including the response of the ocean to tropical and extratropical storms (R. L...Numerical Study of Maritime Extratropical e. Cyclones Using FGGE Data ........................... 249 Oceanic Current System Response to Atmospheric...In addition* Professor Jayachandran has performed statistical analyses of the storm tracking methodology used by the Naval Environmental Prediction

Canine scent detection and microbial source tracking of human waste contamination in storm drains.

PubMed

Van De Werfhorst, Laurie C; Murray, Jill L S; Reynolds, Scott; Reynolds, Karen; Holden, Patricia A

2014-06-01

Human fecal contamination of surface waters and drains is difficult to diagnose. DNA-based and chemical analyses of water samples can be used to specifically quantify human waste contamination, but their expense precludes routine use. We evaluated canine scent tracking, using two dogs trained to respond to the scent of municipal wastewater, as a field approach for surveying human fecal contamination. Fecal indicator bacteria, as well as DNA-based and chemical markers of human waste, were analyzed in waters sampled from canine scent-evaluated sites (urban storm drains and creeks). In the field, the dogs responded positively (70% and 100%) at sites for which sampled waters were then confirmed as contaminated with human waste. When both dogs indicated a negative response, human waste markers were absent. Overall, canine scent tracking appears useful for prioritizing sampling sites for which DNA-based and similarly expensive assays can confirm and quantify human waste contamination.

Cluster Analysis of Downscaled and Explicitly Simulated North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracks

DOE PAGES

Daloz, Anne S.; Camargo, S. J.; Kossin, J. P.; ...

2015-02-11

A realistic representation of the North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks is crucial as it allows, for example, explaining potential changes in U.S. landfalling systems. Here, the authors present a tentative study that examines the ability of recent climate models to represent North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks. Tracks from two types of climate models are evaluated: explicit tracks are obtained from tropical cyclones simulated in regional or global climate models with moderate to high horizontal resolution (1°–0.25°), and downscaled tracks are obtained using a downscaling technique with large-scale environmental fields from a subset of these models. Here, for both configurations, tracksmore » are objectively separated into four groups using a cluster technique, leading to a zonal and a meridional separation of the tracks. The meridional separation largely captures the separation between deep tropical and subtropical, hybrid or baroclinic cyclones, while the zonal separation segregates Gulf of Mexico and Cape Verde storms. The properties of the tracks’ seasonality, intensity, and power dissipation index in each cluster are documented for both configurations. The authors’ results show that, except for the seasonality, the downscaled tracks better capture the observed characteristics of the clusters. The authors also use three different idealized scenarios to examine the possible future changes of tropical cyclone tracks under 1) warming sea surface temperature, 2) increasing carbon dioxide, and 3) a combination of the two. The response to each scenario is highly variable depending on the simulation considered. Lastly, the authors examine the role of each cluster in these future changes and find no preponderant contribution of any single cluster over the others.« less

The role of storm scale, position and movement in controlling urban flood response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; Zhou, Zhengzheng; Yang, Long; Liu, Shuguang; Smith, James

2018-01-01

The impact of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on hydrological response remains poorly understood, in particular in urban catchments due to their strong variability in land use, a high degree of imperviousness and the presence of stormwater infrastructure. In this study, we analyze the effect of storm scale, position and movement in relation to basin scale and flow-path network structure on urban hydrological response. A catalog of 279 peak events was extracted from a high-quality observational dataset covering 15 years of flow observations and radar rainfall data for five (semi)urbanized basins ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2 in size. Results showed that the largest peak flows in the event catalog were associated with storm core scales exceeding basin scale, for all except the largest basin. Spatial scale of flood-producing storm events in the smaller basins fell into two groups: storms of large spatial scales exceeding basin size or small, concentrated events, with storm core much smaller than basin size. For the majority of events, spatial rainfall variability was strongly smoothed by the flow-path network, increasingly so for larger basin size. Correlation analysis showed that position of the storm in relation to the flow-path network was significantly correlated with peak flow in the smallest and in the two more urbanized basins. Analysis of storm movement relative to the flow-path network showed that direction of storm movement, upstream or downstream relative to the flow-path network, had little influence on hydrological response. Slow-moving storms tend to be associated with higher peak flows and longer lag times. Unexpectedly, position of the storm relative to impervious cover within the basins had little effect on flow peaks. These findings show the importance of observation-based analysis in validating and improving our understanding of interactions between the spatial distribution of rainfall and catchment variability.

Astronomical and atmospheric impacts on deep-sea hydrothermal vent invertebrates

PubMed Central

Legendre, Pierre; Matabos, Marjolaine; Mihály, Steve; Lee, Raymond W.; Sarradin, Pierre-Marie; Arango, Claudia P.; Sarrazin, Jozée

2017-01-01

Ocean tides and winter surface storms are among the main factors driving the dynamics and spatial structure of marine coastal species, but the understanding of their impact on deep-sea and hydrothermal vent communities is still limited. Multidisciplinary deep-sea observatories offer an essential tool to study behavioural rhythms and interactions between hydrothermal community dynamics and environmental fluctuations. Here, we investigated whether species associated with a Ridgeia piscesae tubeworm vent assemblage respond to local ocean dynamics. By tracking variations in vent macrofaunal abundance at different temporal scales, we provide the first evidence that tides and winter surface storms influence the distribution patterns of mobile and non-symbiotic hydrothermal species (i.e. pycnogonids Sericosura sp. and Polynoidae polychaetes) at more than 2 km depth. Local ocean dynamics affected the mixing between hydrothermal fluid inputs and surrounding seawater, modifying the environmental conditions in vent habitats. We suggest that hydrothermal species respond to these habitat modifications by adjusting their behaviour to ensure optimal living conditions. This behaviour may reflect a specific adaptation of vent species to their highly variable habitat. PMID:28381618

[Dust storms trend in the Capital Circle of China over the past 50 years and its correlation with temperature, precipitation and wind].

PubMed

Chen, Yu-fu; Tang, Hai-ping

2005-01-01

The trends of number of dust storm days of the selected 11 meteorological stations from their established year to 2000 as well as their correlations with temperature, precipitation and wind are revealed. The number of dust storm days of the Capital Circle of China is distinctly variable in space and time. The numbers of dust storm days of the western area are far more than those of the eastern area. The interannual variability of number of dust storm days is remarkable. The number of dust storm days of the following 7 stations, Erlianhaote, Abaga, Xilinhaote, Fengning, Zhangjiakou, Huailai and Beijing, declined along the past decades, but those of the other four stations had no significant upward or downward trends. There is a marked seasonality of the number of dust storm days, and the maximum was in April. The correlation between number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s, which is critical wind velocity to entrain sand into the air, was strongest among the three climatic factor. There were significant positive correlations between the number of dust storm days and number of days of mean wind velocity > 5 m/s in 6 stations. The second strongest climatic factor correlated with the number of dust storm days is temperature. There are significant negative correlations between the number of dust storm days and mean annual temperature, mean winter temperature, mean spring temperature in 3 or 4 stations. The correlation between the number of dust storm days and precipitation is weakest. Only one station, Zhurihe, showes significant negative correlation between the number of dust storm days and spring rainfall. There are 4 stations whose number of dust storm days don't significantly correlate with the climate. In the end, the spatial-temporal variability of dust storms and its relation with climate in the Capital Circle of China were discussed thoroughly.

Classification and Feature Selection Algorithms for Modeling Ice Storm Climatology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swaminathan, R.; Sridharan, M.; Hayhoe, K.; Dobbie, G.

2015-12-01

Ice storms account for billions of dollars of winter storm loss across the continental US and Canada. In the future, increasing concentration of human populations in areas vulnerable to ice storms such as the northeastern US will only exacerbate the impacts of these extreme events on infrastructure and society. Quantifying the potential impacts of global climate change on ice storm prevalence and frequency is challenging, as ice storm climatology is driven by complex and incompletely defined atmospheric processes, processes that are in turn influenced by a changing climate. This makes the underlying atmospheric and computational modeling of ice storm climatology a formidable task. We propose a novel computational framework that uses sophisticated stochastic classification and feature selection algorithms to model ice storm climatology and quantify storm occurrences from both reanalysis and global climate model outputs. The framework is based on an objective identification of ice storm events by key variables derived from vertical profiles of temperature, humidity and geopotential height. Historical ice storm records are used to identify days with synoptic-scale upper air and surface conditions associated with ice storms. Evaluation using NARR reanalysis and historical ice storm records corresponding to the northeastern US demonstrates that an objective computational model with standard performance measures, with a relatively high degree of accuracy, identify ice storm events based on upper-air circulation patterns and provide insights into the relationships between key climate variables associated with ice storms.

Long-Term Precipitation Isotope Ratios (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) in the Northeast US Reflect Atlantic Ocean Warming and Shifts in Moisture Sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puntsag, T.; Welker, J. M.; Mitchell, M. J.; Klein, E. S.; Campbell, J. L.; Likens, G.

2014-12-01

The global water cycle is exhibiting dramatic changes as global temperatures increase resulting in increases in: drought extremes, flooding, alterations in storm track patterns with protracted winter storms, and greater precipitation variability. The mechanisms driving these changes can be difficult to assess, but the spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation water isotopes (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) provide a means to help understand these water cycle changes. However, extended temporal records of isotope ratios in precipitation are infrequent, especially in the US. In our study we analyzed precipitation isotope ratio data from the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire that has the longest US precipitation isotope record, to determine: 1) the monthly composited averages and trends from 1967 to 2012 (45 years); ; 2) the relationships between abiotic properties such as local temperatures, precipitation type, storm tracks and isotope ratio changes; and 3) the influence of regional shifts in moisture sources and/or changes in N Atlantic Ocean water conditions on isotope values. The seasonal variability of Hubbard Brook precipitation isotope ratios is consistent with other studies, as average δ18O values are ~ -15‰ in January and ~ -5 ‰ in July. However, over the 45 year record there is a depletion trend in the δ 18O values (becoming isotopically lighter with a greater proportion of 16O), which coupled with less change in δ 2H leads to increases in d-excess values from ~ -10‰ around 1970 to greater than 10‰ in 2009. These changes occurred during a period of warming as opposed to cooling local temperatures indicating other processes besides temperature are controlling long-term water isotope traits in this region. We have evidence that these changes in precipitation isotope traits are controlled in large part by an increases in moisture being sourced from a warming N Atlantic Ocean that is providing evaporated, isotopically-depleted precipitation to the region. Thus, the warming of the N Atlantic Ocean appears to influence the climate and the precipitation isotopes of Northeastern coastal regions and could be a larger water source to watersheds in this North American region.

Input variable selection and calibration data selection for storm water quality regression models.

PubMed

Sun, Siao; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

2013-01-01

Storm water quality models are useful tools in storm water management. Interest has been growing in analyzing existing data for developing models for urban storm water quality evaluations. It is important to select appropriate model inputs when many candidate explanatory variables are available. Model calibration and verification are essential steps in any storm water quality modeling. This study investigates input variable selection and calibration data selection in storm water quality regression models. The two selection problems are mutually interacted. A procedure is developed in order to fulfil the two selection tasks in order. The procedure firstly selects model input variables using a cross validation method. An appropriate number of variables are identified as model inputs to ensure that a model is neither overfitted nor underfitted. Based on the model input selection results, calibration data selection is studied. Uncertainty of model performances due to calibration data selection is investigated with a random selection method. An approach using the cluster method is applied in order to enhance model calibration practice based on the principle of selecting representative data for calibration. The comparison between results from the cluster selection method and random selection shows that the former can significantly improve performances of calibrated models. It is found that the information content in calibration data is important in addition to the size of calibration data.

Tropical Storm Sam, Eastern Indian Ocean

NASA Image and Video Library

1990-01-20

STS032-80-036 (9-20 Jan. 1990) --- This oblique view of Tropical Storm Sam in the eastern Indian Ocean off the western coast of Australia was photographed with a 70mm camera by the astronauts. Tropical Storm Sam (known as Willy-Willy in Australia) was born in the eastern Indian Ocean near the islands of Timor and Sumba in Indonesia. The storm tracked southwestward attaining sustained winds in excess of 60 knots (70 miles per hour). Other than on Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands south of Java, and for strong swells along the western Australia coast, the storm had little impact on land areas. At the time this photograph was taken, the storm was beginning to dissipate in the south Indian Ocean. The eye of the storm is still visible near center, with the swirling bands of the storm propagating in a clockwise direction toward the center. Winds aloft have begun to shear the tops of thunderstorms associated with the storm, forming a high cirrus cloud cover over the center portions of the storm. This picture was used by the crew at their January 30, 1990 Post-Flight Press Conference (PFPC).

Using Elemental Abundances and Petrophysical Properties to Trace Sediment Transport in the Hudson River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, C.; Kenna, T. C.; Nitsche, F. O.

2016-12-01

The IPCC predicts that the frequency and severity of storms worldwide will increase due to climate change, a growing concern for the highly populated coastal areas near the Hudson River estuary. Storms have the potential to change the river's sediment budget, and it is necessary to update the current understanding of the effect of storms on sediment dynamics. In 2011, Tropical Storm Lee and Hurricane Irene delivered over 2.7 million tons of sediment to the Hudson River including over 1.5 million tons from the Mohawk River, a freshwater tributary, in addition to record amounts contributed from other major tributaries. The goals of this project are to use sediment elemental compositions to trace the major tributaries contributing to this storm-deposited sediment and to determine where sediment is accumulating as a result of storm activity. Chemical analysis of over 800 archived sediment samples are compiled to provide a pre-storm background level. These samples are compared to newly deposited sediment and material from specific tributaries. Elemental abundances (K, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Cu, Zn, Rb, Sr, Zr, Pb, and U) are measured using a field portable X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) unit and core scanning XRF unit. Bulk matrix density is measured using a pycnometer. The measurements are used to identify elemental signatures from tributary sediment and to trace the influence of specific tributaries on deposition through the river. Our results suggests measureable signatures in sediment from individual tributaries. The Mohawk River contributes high concentrations of Ca due to the calcite deposits in its watershed. XRF measurements also show the effect of human activity on sediment deposition; variations in Rb and Zr indicate changes in deposition due to dredging in Haverstraw Bay. The salt wedge front, where ocean and fresh water meets is evident in areas of below average matrix density. This project shows significant geochemical variability between sediment from different areas of the river, and indicates that XRF can be used to track sediment sources and deposition.

Long-term climate patterns in Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation and their biological consequences

USGS Publications Warehouse

Simpson, James J.; Hufford, Gary L.; Fleming, Michael D.; Berg, Jared S.; Ashton, J.B.

2002-01-01

Mean monthly climate maps of Alaskan surface temperature and precipitation produced by the parameter-elevation regression on independent slopes model (PRISM) were analyzed. Alaska is divided into interior and coastal zones with consistent but different climatic variability separated by a transition region; it has maximum interannual variability but low long-term mean variability. Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO)- and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-type events influence Alaska surface temperatures weakly (1-2/spl deg/C) statewide. PDO has a stronger influence than ENSO on precipitation but its influence is largely localized to coastal central Alaska. The strongest influence of Arctic oscillation (AO) occurs in northern and interior Alaskan precipitation. Four major ecosystems are defined. A major eco-transition zone occurs between the interior boreal forest and the coastal rainforest. Variability in insolation, surface temperature, precipitation, continentality, and seasonal changes in storm track direction explain the mapped ecosystems. Lack of westward expansion of the interior boreal forest into the western shrub tundra is influenced by the coastal marine boundary layer (enhanced cloud cover, reduced insolation, cooler surface and soil temperatures).

The influence of sea surface temperature on the intensity and associated storm surge of tropical cyclone Yasi: a sensitivity study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lavender, Sally L.; Hoeke, Ron K.; Abbs, Deborah J.

2018-03-01

Tropical cyclones (TCs) result in widespread damage associated with strong winds, heavy rainfall and storm surge. TC Yasi was one of the most powerful TCs to impact the Queensland coast since records began. Prior to Yasi, the SSTs in the Coral Sea were higher than average by 1-2 °C, primarily due to the 2010/2011 La Niña event. In this study, a conceptually simple idealised sensitivity analysis is performed using a high-resolution regional model to gain insight into the influence of SST on the track, size, intensity and associated rainfall of TC Yasi. A set of nine simulations with uniform SST anomalies of between -4 and 4 °C applied to the observed SSTs are analysed. The resulting surface winds and pressure are used to force a barotropic storm surge model to examine the influence of SST on the associated storm surge of TC Yasi. An increase in SST results in an increase in intensity, precipitation and integrated kinetic energy of the storm; however, there is little influence on track prior to landfall. In addition to an increase in precipitation, there is a change in the spatial distribution of precipitation as the SST increases. Decreases in SSTs result in an increase in the radius of maximum winds due to an increase in the asymmetry of the storm, although the radius of gale-force winds decreases. These changes in the TC characteristics also lead to changes in the associated storm surge. Generally, cooler (warmer) SSTs lead to reduced (enhanced) maximum storm surges. However, the increase in surge reaches a maximum with an increase in SST of 2 °C. Any further increase in SST does not affect the maximum surge but the total area and duration of the simulated surge increases with increasing upper ocean temperatures. A large decrease in maximum storm surge height occurs when a negative SST anomaly is applied, suggesting if TC Yasi had occurred during non-La Niña conditions the associated storm surge may have been greatly diminished, with a decrease in storm surge height of over 3 m when the SST is reduced by 2 °C. In summary, increases in SST lead to an increase in the potential destructiveness of TCs with regard to intensity, precipitation and storm surge, although this relationship is not linear.

Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) for the Earth Observing System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Christian, Hugh J.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Goodman, Steven J.

1992-01-01

Not only are scientific objectives and instrument characteristics given of a calibrated optical LIS for the EOS but also for the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) which was designed to acquire and study the distribution and variability of total lightning on a global basis. The LIS can be traced to a lightning mapper sensor planned for flight on the GOES meteorological satellites. The LIS consists of a staring imager optimized to detect and locate lightning. The LIS will detect and locate lightning with storm scale resolution (i.e., 5 to 10 km) over a large region of the Earth's surface along the orbital track of the satellite, mark the time of occurrence of the lightning, and measure the radiant energy. The LIS will have a nearly uniform 90 pct. detection efficiency within the area viewed by the sensor, and will detect intracloud and cloud-to-ground discharges during day and night conditions. Also, the LIS will monitor individual storms and storm systems long enough to obtain a measure of the lightning flashing rate when they are within the field of view of the LIS. The LIS attributes include low cost, low weight and power, low data rate, and important science. The LIS will study the hydrological cycle, general circulation and sea surface temperature variations, along with examinations of the electrical coupling of thunderstorms with the ionosphere and magnetosphere, and observations and modeling of the global electric circuit.

Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model

PubMed Central

Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J.; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Molina, Mario J.

2014-01-01

Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol–climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by −2.5 and +1.3 W m−2, respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors’ knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale. PMID:24733923

Assessing the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on Pacific storm track using a multiscale global climate model.

PubMed

Wang, Yuan; Wang, Minghuai; Zhang, Renyi; Ghan, Steven J; Lin, Yun; Hu, Jiaxi; Pan, Bowen; Levy, Misti; Jiang, Jonathan H; Molina, Mario J

2014-05-13

Atmospheric aerosols affect weather and global general circulation by modifying cloud and precipitation processes, but the magnitude of cloud adjustment by aerosols remains poorly quantified and represents the largest uncertainty in estimated forcing of climate change. Here we assess the effects of anthropogenic aerosols on the Pacific storm track, using a multiscale global aerosol-climate model (GCM). Simulations of two aerosol scenarios corresponding to the present day and preindustrial conditions reveal long-range transport of anthropogenic aerosols across the north Pacific and large resulting changes in the aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud and ice water paths. Shortwave and longwave cloud radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere are changed by -2.5 and +1.3 W m(-2), respectively, by emission changes from preindustrial to present day, and an increased cloud top height indicates invigorated midlatitude cyclones. The overall increased precipitation and poleward heat transport reflect intensification of the Pacific storm track by anthropogenic aerosols. Hence, this work provides, for the first time to the authors' knowledge, a global perspective of the effects of Asian pollution outflows from GCMs. Furthermore, our results suggest that the multiscale modeling framework is essential in producing the aerosol invigoration effect of deep convective clouds on a global scale.

Inertial Oscillation of a Vertical Rotating Draft with Application to a Supercell Storm: Video Supplement to NASA-TP-3230

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Costen, Robert C.; Stock, Larry V.

1992-01-01

In this video (8 min., color, sound, VHS), animation depicts the inertial oscillation of a new mathematical model ('vertical rotating draft') for spinning up a single supercell storm. The oscillation consists of a long quiescent phase when the draft is large in diameter and rotates anticyclonically and a short intense phase when the draft is small and cyclonic. During the intense phase, the rotating draft resembles a supercell. The physical basis for the oscillation is depicted by tracking air parcels in the draft as they move along inertial circles (projected on a horizontal plane), where the horizontal pressure gradient is zero and the Coriolis force balances the centrifugal force. A side view of the oscillation shows that contraction and expansion are linked, respectively, to buoyantly driven compressible downdraft and updraft. An aerial view tracks the draft as it moves above the surface of the Earth and turns to the right during the intense phase. Radar echoes from a supercell storm are superimposed for comparison. The data appear to support only the intense phase. A critical experiment would measure the predominantly downward flow that theoretically occurs before the right turn in a supercell track and causes contraction and spin-up.

The influence of asymmetric convections on typhoon cyclonic deflection tracks across Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, L. H.; Su, S. H.

2016-12-01

This study focus on the mechanisms of typhoon cyclonic deflection tracks (CDT) approaching the east coast of Taiwan. We analyzed for 84 landfall typhoons which has 49 CDT cases, 18 cases are with very large deflection angles (DA) ( > 20°) and another 7 cases are with cyclonic looping tracks (CLT). Most of the large DA and CLT cases are with relatively slow translation speeds of 4 m s-1 and occurred near the east coast, north of 23 °N in Taiwan. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model was used to simulate the typhoon CDT cases. We use the potential vorticity (PV) tendency diagnosis to analyze the typhoon movements, and decompose the wave number one component of PV tendencies into horizontal advection (HA), vertical advection (VA) and diabatic heating (DH) terms. The northern landfall storms have significant vorticity stretching and subsidence warming to the south of the storm. The subsidence warming suppresses convections and produces heating asymmetries for the typhoon structure. The vorticity stretching (VA effect) and diabatic heating asymmetries (DH effect) which lead the southwestward deflection storm motion. The HA effect in general does not contribute to the CDT. Our results highlight the effects of vorticity stretching and asymmetric convective heating in producing the CDT to north of 23 °N near the east coast of Taiwan.

Mars Atmospheric Temperature and Dust Storm Tracking

NASA Image and Video Library

2016-06-09

This graphic overlays Martian atmospheric temperature data as curtains over an image of Mars taken during a regional dust storm. The temperature profiles extend from the surface to about 50 miles (80 kilometers) up. Temperatures are color coded, ranging from minus 243 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 153 degrees Celsius) where coded purple to minus 9 F (minus 23 C) where coded red. The temperature data and global image were both recorded on Oct. 18, 2014, by instruments on NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter: Mars Climate Sounder and Mars Color Imager. On that day a regional dust storm was active in the Acidalia Planitia region of northern Mars, at the upper center of this image. A storm from this area in typically travels south and grows into a large regional storm in the southern hemisphere during southern spring. That type of southern-spring storm and two other large regional dust storms repeat as a three-storm series most Martian years. The pattern has been identified from their effects on atmospheric temperature in a layer about 16 miles (25 kilometers) above the surface. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA20747

An estimation of the condensation rates in three severe storm systems from satellite observations of the convective mass flux

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mack, R. A.; Wylie, D. P.

1982-01-01

A technique was developed for estimating the condensation rates of convective storms using satellite measurements of cirrus anvil expansion rates and radiosonde measurements of environmental water vapor. Three cases of severe convection in Oklahoma were studied and a diagnostic model was developed for integrating radiosonde data with satellite data. Two methods were used to measure the anvil expansion rates - the expansion of isotherm contours on infrared images, and the divergent motions of small brightness anomalies tracked on the visible images. The differences between the two methods were large as the storms developed, but these differences became small in the latter stage of all three storms. A comparison between the three storms indicated that the available moisture in the lowest levels greatly affected the rain rates of the storms. This was evident from both the measured rain rates of the storms and the condensation rates estimated by the model. The possibility of using this diagnostic model for estimating the intensities of convective storms also is discussed.

Lightning Mapping Observations: What we are learning.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krehbiel, P.

2001-12-01

The use of radio frequency time-of-arrival techniques for accurately mapping lightning discharges is revolutionizing our ability to study lightning discharge processes and to investigate thunderstorms. Different types of discharges are being observed that we have not been able to study before or knew existed. Included are a variety of inverted and normal polarity intracloud and cloud-to-ground discharges, frequent short-duration discharges at high altitude in storms and in overshooting convective tops, highly energetic impulsive discharge events, and horizontally extensive `spider' lightning discharges in large mesoscale convective systems. High time resolution measurements valuably complement interferometric observations and are starting to exceed the ability of interferometers to provide detailed pictures of flash development. Mapping observations can be used to infer the polarity of the breakdown channels and hence the location and sign of charge regions in the storm. The lightning activity in large, severe storms is found to be essentially continuous and volume-filling, with substantially more lightning inside the storm than between the cloud and ground. Spectacular dendritic structures are observed in many flashes. The lightning observations can be used to infer the electrical structure of a storm and therefore to study the electrification processes. The results are raising fundamental questions about how storms become electrified and how the electrification evolves with time. Supercell storms are commonly observed to electrify in an inverted or anomalous manner, raising questions about how these storms are different from normal storms, and even what is `normal'. The high lightning rates in severe storms raises the distinct possibility that the discharges themselves might be sustaining or enhancing the electrification. Correlated observations with radar, instrumented balloons and aircraft, and ground-based measurements are leading to greatly improved understanding of the electrical processes in storms. The mapping observations also provide possible diagnostics of storm type and severity. Lightning `holes' are observed as storms intensify and are robust indicators of strong updrafts and precursors of tornadic activity. Lightning in overshooting convective tops provides another indicator of strong convective surges and a valuable precursor of severity. The lightning observations show the locations of convective cores in storms and can be obtained in real time to monitor and track convective activity, much like meteorological radar. Mapping systems are able to passively detect and track aircraft flying through ice crystal clouds, as well as airborne or ground-based instruments or vehicles carrying active transmitters. Finally, the mapping techniques could readily be adapted to monitor noise and detect faults on power transmission lines.

Tree survival 15 years after the ice storm of January 1998

Treesearch

Walter C. Shortle; Kevin T. Smith; Kenneth R. Dudzik

2014-01-01

The regional ice storm of early January 1998 was a widespread disturbance for millions of acres of forest in northeastern New York, northern New England, and southern Quebec. Tree crowns were partially or totally lost as stems snapped and branches broke with the weight of the deposited ice. We tracked the effect of crown injury on a large sample of northern hardwood...

Euro-Atlantic winter storminess and precipitation extremes under 1.5 °C vs. 2 °C warming scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barcikowska, Monika J.; Weaver, Scott J.; Feser, Frauke; Russo, Simone; Schenk, Frederik; Stone, Dáithí A.; Wehner, Michael F.; Zahn, Matthias

2018-06-01

Severe winter storms in combination with precipitation extremes pose a serious threat to Europe. Located at the southeastern exit of the North Atlantic's storm track, European coastlines are directly exposed to impacts by high wind speeds, storm floods and coastal erosion. In this study we analyze potential changes in simulated winter storminess and extreme precipitation, which may occur under 1.5 or 2 °C warming scenarios. Here we focus on a first simulation suite of the atmospheric model CAM5 performed within the HAPPI project and evaluate how changes of the horizontal model resolution impact the results regarding atmospheric pressure, storm tracks, wind speed and precipitation extremes. The comparison of CAM5 simulations with different resolutions indicates that an increased horizontal resolution to 0.25° not only refines regional-scale information but also improves large-scale atmospheric circulation features over the Euro-Atlantic region. The zonal bias in monthly pressure at mean sea level and wind fields, which is typically found in low-resolution models, is considerably reduced. This allows us to analyze potential changes in regional- to local-scale extreme wind speeds and precipitation in a more realistic way. Our analysis of the future response for the 2 °C warming scenario generally confirms previous model simulations suggesting a poleward shift and intensification of the meridional circulation in the Euro-Atlantic region. Additional analysis suggests that this shift occurs mainly after exceeding the 1.5 °C global warming level, when the midlatitude jet stream manifests a strengthening northeastward. At the same time, this northeastern shift of the storm tracks allows an intensification and northeastern expansion of the Azores high, leading to a tendency of less precipitation across the Bay of Biscay and North Sea. Regions impacted by the strengthening of the midlatitude jet, such as the northwestern coasts of the British Isles, Scandinavia and the Norwegian Sea, and over the North Atlantic east of Newfoundland, experience an increase in the mean as well as daily and sub-daily precipitation, wind extremes and storminess, suggesting an important influence of increasing storm activity in these regions in response to global warming.

Trace fossils, sedimentary facies and parasequence architecture from the Lower Cretaceous Mulichinco Formation of Argentina: The role of fair-weather waves in shoreface deposits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wesolowski, Lindsey J. N.; Buatois, Luis A.; Mángano, M. Gabriela; Ponce, Juan José; Carmona, Noelia B.

2018-05-01

Shorefaces can display strong facies variability and integration of sedimentology and ichnology provides a high-resolution model to identify variations among strongly storm-dominated (high energy), moderately storm-affected (intermediate energy), and weakly storm-affected (low energy) shoreface deposits. In addition, ichnology has proved to be of help to delineate parasequences as trace-fossil associations are excellent indicators of environmental conditions which typically change along the depositional profile. Shallow-marine deposits and associated ichnofaunas from the Mulichinco Formation (Valanginian, Lower Cretaceous) in Puerta Curaco, Neuquén Basin, western Argentina, were analyzed to evaluate stress factors on shoreface benthos and parasequence architecture. During storm-dominated conditions, the Skolithos Ichnofacies prevails within the offshore transition and lower shoreface represented by assemblages dominated by Thalassinoides isp. and Ophiomorpha irregulaire. Under weakly storm-affected conditions, the Cruziana Ichnofacies is recognized, characterized by assemblages dominated by Thalassinoides isp. and Gyrochorte comosa in the offshore transition, and by Gyrochorte comosa within the lower shoreface. Storm-influenced conditions yield wider ichnologic variability, showing elements of both ichnofacies. Storm influence on sedimentation is affected by both allogenic (e.g. tectonic subsidence, sea-level, and sediment influx) and autogenic (e.g. hydrodynamic) controls at both parasequence and intra-parasequence scales. Four distinct types of parasequences were recognized, strongly storm-dominated, moderately storm-affected, moderately storm-affected - strongly fair-weather reworked, and weakly storm-affected, categorized based on parasequence architectural variability derived from varying degrees of storm and fair-weather wave influence. The new type of shoreface described here, the moderately storm-affected - strongly fair-weather reworked shoreface, features storm deposits reworked thoroughly by fair-weather waves. During fair-weather wave reworking, elements of the Cruziana Ichnofacies are overprinted upon relict elements of the Skolithos Ichnofacies from previous storm induced deposition. This type of shoreface, commonly overlooked in past literature, expands our understanding of the sedimentary dynamics and stratigraphic architecture in a shoreface susceptible to various parasequence and intra-parasequence scale degrees of storm and fair-weather wave influence.

An Assessment of the Meteorological Conditions Leading to the NOAA WP-3D Engine Compressor Stalls of February 9, 2007, Due to Sea Salt Aerosol Particle Fouling

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-10-25

as this airborne research did. In this particular case, the WP- 3D flight track took it through the dry slot of an occluding storm system which had...just completed a period of explosive cyclogenesis. This particular sector of a storm sometimes experiences very high wind speeds and seas but little...takeoff time of 22:00 Z on February 8 (henceforth referred to as the F8 flight). The incident of February 9 (henceforth F9) was a storm that was part of

Hydroclimatology of Extreme Precipitation and Floods Originating from the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nakamura, Jennifer

This study explores seasonal patterns and structures of moisture transport pathways from the North Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico that lead to extreme large-scale precipitation and floods over land. Storm tracks, such as the tropical cyclone tracks in the Northern Atlantic Ocean, are an example of moisture transport pathways. In the first part, North Atlantic cyclone tracks are clustered by the moments to identify common traits in genesis locations, track shapes, intensities, life spans, landfalls, seasonal patterns, and trends. The clustering results of part one show the dynamical behavior differences of tropical cyclones born in different parts of the basin. Drawing on these conclusions, in the second part, statistical track segment model is developed for simulation of tracks to improve reliability of tropical cyclone risk probabilities. Moisture transport pathways from the North Atlantic Ocean are also explored though the specific regional flood dynamics of the U.S. Midwest and the United Kingdom in part three of the dissertation. Part I. Classifying North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones Tracks by Mass Moments. A new method for classifying tropical cyclones or similar features is introduced. The cyclone track is considered as an open spatial curve, with the wind speed or power information along the curve considered as a mass attribute. The first and second moments of the resulting object are computed and then used to classify the historical tracks using standard clustering algorithms. Mass moments allow the whole track shape, length and location to be incorporated into the clustering methodology. Tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin are clustered with K-means by mass moments producing an optimum of six clusters with differing genesis locations, track shapes, intensities, life spans, landfalls, seasonality, and trends. Even variables that are not directly clustered show distinct separation between clusters. A trend analysis confirms recent conclusions of increasing tropical cyclones in the basin over the past two decades. However, the trends vary across clusters. Part II: Tropical cyclone Intensity and Track Simulator (HITS) with Atlantic Ocean Applications for Risk Assessment. A nonparametric stochastic model is developed and tested for the simulation of tropical cyclone tracks. Tropical cyclone tracks demonstrate continuity and memory over many time and space steps. Clusters of tracks can be coherent, and the separation between clusters may be marked by geographical locations where groups of tracks diverge due to the physics of the underlying process. Consequently, their evolution may be non-Markovian. Markovian simulation models, as often used, may produce tracks that potentially diverge or lose memory quicker than nature. This is addressed here through a model that simulates tracks by randomly sampling track segments of varying length, selected from historical tracks. For performance evaluation, a spatial grid is imposed on the domain of interest. For each grid box, long-term tropical cyclone risk is assessed through the annual probability distributions of the number of storm hours, landfalls, winds, and other statistics. Total storm length is determined at birth by local distribution, and movement to other tropical cyclone segments by distance to neighbor tracks, comparative vector, and age of track. An assessment of the performance for tropical cyclone track simulation and potential directions for the improvement and use of such model are discussed. Part III: Dynamical Structure of Extreme Floods in the U.S. Midwest and the United Kingdom. Twenty extreme spring floods that occurred in the Ohio Basin between 1901 and 2008, identified from daily river discharge data, are investigated and compared to the April 2011 Ohio River flood event. Composites of synoptic fields for the flood events show that all these floods are associated with a similar pattern of sustained advection of low-level moisture and warm air from the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. The typical flow conditions are governed by an anomalous semi-stationary ridge situated east of the US East Coast, which steers the moisture and converges it into the Ohio Valley. Significantly, the moisture path common to all the 20 cases studied here as well as the case of April 2011 is distinctly different from the normal path of Atlantic moisture during spring, which occurs further west. It is shown further that the Ohio basin moisture convergence responsible for the floods is caused primarily by the atmospheric circulation anomaly advecting the climatological mean moisture field. Transport and related convergence due to the covariance between moisture anomalies and circulation anomalies are of secondary but non-negligible importance. The importance of atmospheric circulation anomalies to floods is confirmed by conducting a similar analysis for a series of winter floods on the River Eden in northwest England.

Application of the SRI cloud-tracking technique to rapid-scan GOES observations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wolf, D. E.; Endlich, R. M.

1980-01-01

An automatic cloud tracking system was applied to multilayer clouds associated with severe storms. The method was tested using rapid scan observations of Hurricane Eloise obtained by the GOES satellite on 22 September 1975. Cloud tracking was performed using clustering based either on visible or infrared data. The clusters were tracked using two different techniques. The data of 4 km and 8 km resolution of the automatic system yielded comparable in accuracy and coverage to those obtained by NASA analysts using the Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System.

Communicating Storm Surge Forecast Uncertainty

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Troutman, J. A.; Rhome, J.

2015-12-01

When it comes to tropical cyclones, storm surge is often the greatest threat to life and property along the coastal United States. The coastal population density has dramatically increased over the past 20 years, putting more people at risk. Informing emergency managers, decision-makers and the public about the potential for wind driven storm surge, however, has been extremely difficult. Recently, the Storm Surge Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida has developed a prototype experimental storm surge watch/warning graphic to help communicate this threat more effectively by identifying areas most at risk for life-threatening storm surge. This prototype is the initial step in the transition toward a NWS storm surge watch/warning system and highlights the inundation levels that have a 10% chance of being exceeded. The guidance for this product is the Probabilistic Hurricane Storm Surge (P-Surge) model, which predicts the probability of various storm surge heights by statistically evaluating numerous SLOSH model simulations. Questions remain, however, if exceedance values in addition to the 10% may be of equal importance to forecasters. P-Surge data from 2014 Hurricane Arthur is used to ascertain the practicality of incorporating other exceedance data into storm surge forecasts. Extracting forecast uncertainty information through analyzing P-surge exceedances overlaid with track and wind intensity forecasts proves to be beneficial for forecasters and decision support.

Process Study of Oceanic Responses to Typhoons Using Arrays of EM-APEX Floats and Moorings

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-09-30

maximum potential intensity, structure , energy, trajectory, and dynamic evolution. The most energetic oceanic responses to tropical cyclone forcing are...during tropical cyclone passage will aid understanding of storm dynamics and structure . The ocean’s recovery after tropical cyclone passage depends...days). The wake was advected hundreds of kilometers from the storm track by a pre- existing mesoscale eddy. Its thermal structure could not be

Linked Extreme Weather Events during Winter 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 in the Context of Northern Hemisphere Circulation Anomalies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosart, L. F.; Archambault, H. M.; Cordeira, J. M.

2011-12-01

Lance F. Bosart, Heather M. Archambault, and Jason M. Cordeira Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York The Northern Hemisphere (NH) planetary-scale circulation during winter 2009-2010 was characterized by an unusual combination of persistent high-latitude blocking and southward-displaced storm tracks, manifest by a strongly negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), in conjunction with a moderate El Nino event. The high-latitude blocking activity and southward-displaced storm tracks supported episodic cold-air outbreaks and enhanced storminess over parts of midlatitude eastern Asia, eastern North America, and western Europe as well as anomalous warmth over northeastern Canada and Greenland that delayed sea ice formation and ice thickening in these areas during winter 2009-2010. Although somewhat less extreme than winter 2009-2010, the first half of winter 2010-2011 was also characterized by high-latitude blocking and southward-displaced storm tracks (manifest by negative values of the AO) while the Pacific-North American (PNA), initially negative, became neutral in late December and most of January. Winter 2010-2011 was characterized by moderate La Nina conditions in contrast to moderate El Nino conditions that prevailed during winter 2009-2010. Despite the reversal of the ENSO phase from winter 2009-2010 to winter 2010-2011, high-latitude blocking activity and the associated southward-displaced storm tracks again allowed for episodic cold-air outbreaks and enhanced storminess over parts of midlatitude eastern Asia, central and eastern North America, and western Europe with delayed sea ice formation and thickening over the Davis Strait and adjacent regions during the first half of winter 2010-2011. Beginning in late January and continuing through early February 2011 the phase of the AO and the PNA reversed with the AO and PNA becoming positive and negative, respectively. This linked AO/PNA phase transition was associated with an extreme weather event that brought severe and record-setting cold to parts of the U.S. and Mexico, a powerful snow and ice storm in the Central U.S., and a subsequent and spectacular warm-up east of the Rockies. The purpose of this presentation will be to present an overview of the structure and evolution of the large-scale NH circulation anomalies during the 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 winters. Emphasis will be placed on showing how individual synoptic-scale weather events (e.g., recurving and transitioning western Pacific tropical cyclones, diabatically driven upper-level outflow from organized deep convection associated with the Madden-Julian Oscillation, and western North Atlantic storminess) contributed to the formation of significant and persistent large-scale circulation anomalies and how these large-scale circulation anomalies in turn impacted the storm tracks, regional temperature and precipitation anomalies, and the associated extreme weather.

Coupled atmosphere-ocean-wave simulations of a storm event over the Gulf of Lion and Balearic Sea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Renault, Lionel; Chiggiato, Jacopo; Warner, John C.; Gomez, Marta; Vizoso, Guillermo; Tintore, Joaquin

2012-01-01

The coastal areas of the North-Western Mediterranean Sea are one of the most challenging places for ocean forecasting. This region is exposed to severe storms events that are of short duration. During these events, significant air-sea interactions, strong winds and large sea-state can have catastrophic consequences in the coastal areas. To investigate these air-sea interactions and the oceanic response to such events, we implemented the Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere-Wave-Sediment Transport Modeling System simulating a severe storm in the Mediterranean Sea that occurred in May 2010. During this event, wind speed reached up to 25 m.s-1 inducing significant sea surface cooling (up to 2°C) over the Gulf of Lion (GoL) and along the storm track, and generating surface waves with a significant height of 6 m. It is shown that the event, associated with a cyclogenesis between the Balearic Islands and the GoL, is relatively well reproduced by the coupled system. A surface heat budget analysis showed that ocean vertical mixing was a major contributor to the cooling tendency along the storm track and in the GoL where turbulent heat fluxes also played an important role. Sensitivity experiments on the ocean-atmosphere coupling suggested that the coupled system is sensitive to the momentum flux parameterization as well as air-sea and air-wave coupling. Comparisons with available atmospheric and oceanic observations showed that the use of the fully coupled system provides the most skillful simulation, illustrating the benefit of using a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model for the assessment of these storm events.

Trends and projections of Southern Hemisphere baroclinicity: the role of external forcing and impact on Australian rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frederiksen, Carsten S.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Sisson, Janice M.; Osbrough, Stacey L.

2017-05-01

Changes in the characteristics of Southern Hemisphere (SH) storms, in all seasons, during the second half of the twentieth century, have been related to changes in the annual cycle of SH baroclinic instability. In particular, significant negative trends in baroclinic instability, as measured by the Phillips Criterion, have been found in the region of the climatological storm tracks; a zonal band of significant positive trends occur further poleward. Corresponding to this decrease/increase in baroclinic instability there is a decrease/increase in the growth rate of storm formation at these latitudes over this period, and in some cases a preference for storm formation further poleward than normal. Based on model output from a multi-model ensemble (MME) of coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, it is shown that these trends are the result of external radiative forcing, including anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, aerosols and land-use change. The MME is used in an analysis of variance method to separate the internal (natural) variability in the Phillips Criterion from influences associated with anomalous external radiative forcing. In all seasons, the leading externally forced mode has a significant trend and a loading pattern highly correlated with the pattern of trends in the Phillips Criterion. The covariance between the externally forced component of SH rainfall and the leading external mode strongly resembles the MME pattern of SH rainfall trends. A comparison between similar analyses of MME simulations using the second half of the twenty-first century of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios show that trends in the Phillips Criterion and rainfall are projected to continue and intensify under increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.

The relationships of seabird assemblages to physical habitat features in Pacific equatorial waters during spring 1984-1991

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ribic, C.A.; Ainley, D.G.

1997-01-01

The association of seabird species groups with physical habitat was investigated in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, far from any breeding colonies. This avoided birds that commute between colony and feeding habitat, behaviour that confuses associations with specific water types and current systems. Seabirds were counted on duplicate tracks in the eastern tropical Pacific each spring from 1984-1991. On each cruise, seabird habitat was measured on the basis of six factors and focused on three species groups: (A) black-winged petrel and white-winged petrel, (B) Juan Fernandez petrel, wedge-tailed shearwater, and sooty tern, and (C) Leach's storm-petrel and wedge-rumped storm-petrel. Group A was associated with the South Equatorial Current, particularly in cooler waters (median of 26.4??C); both petrel species followed this assemblage association with current. Group B was associated with areas characterized by deep thermoclines (median of 60 m) and low salinities (median of 34.33). Within Group B, two of the three species' responses were consistent with the group pattern; Juan Fernandez petrel differed by occurring more often where thermocline slopes were steep (median of 9.8 deg C m-1). Group C was not associated with any physical habitat variable. This was due to species in the group being associated with different habitats: Leach's storm-petrel with the tropical and equatorial surface water masses and wedge-rumped storm-petrel with waters having shallower thermocline depths (median of 22 m). Overall, two of the three assemblages appeared to be associated with physical habitat during spring with consistency among the species in the group. An association with thermocline depth may indicate that productivity was an important predictor of assemblage presence.

Adaptive use of research aircraft data sets for hurricane forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Biswas, M. K.; Krishnamurti, T. N.

2008-02-01

This study uses an adaptive observational strategy for hurricane forecasting. It shows the impacts of Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) and dropsonde data sets from Convection and Moisture Experiment (CAMEX) field campaigns on hurricane track and intensity forecasts. The following cases are used in this study: Bonnie, Danielle and Georges of 1998 and Erin, Gabrielle and Humberto of 2001. A single model run for each storm is carried out using the Florida State University Global Spectral Model (FSUGSM) with the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis as initial conditions, in addition to 50 other model runs where the analysis is randomly perturbed for each storm. The centers of maximum variance of the DLM heights are located from the forecast error variance fields at the 84-hr forecast. Back correlations are then performed using the centers of these maximum variances and the fields at the 36-hr forecast. The regions having the highest correlations in the vicinity of the hurricanes are indicative of regions from where the error growth emanates and suggests the need for additional observations. Data sets are next assimilated in those areas that contain high correlations. Forecasts are computed using the new initial conditions for the storm cases, and track and intensity skills are then examined with respect to the control forecast. The adaptive strategy is capable of identifying sensitive areas where additional observations can help in reducing the hurricane track forecast errors. A reduction of position error by approximately 52% for day 3 of forecast (averaged over 7 storm cases) over the control runs is observed. The intensity forecast shows only a slight positive impact due to the model’s coarse resolution.

Uncertainty Analysis of Historical Hurricane Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Green, Lawrence L.

2007-01-01

An analysis of variance (ANOVA) study was conducted for historical hurricane data dating back to 1851 that was obtained from the U. S. Department of Commerce National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The data set was chosen because it is a large, publicly available collection of information, exhibiting great variability which has made the forecasting of future states, from current and previous states, difficult. The availability of substantial, high-fidelity validation data, however, made for an excellent uncertainty assessment study. Several factors (independent variables) were identified from the data set, which could potentially influence the track and intensity of the storms. The values of these factors, along with the values of responses of interest (dependent variables) were extracted from the data base, and provided to a commercial software package for processing via the ANOVA technique. The primary goal of the study was to document the ANOVA modeling uncertainty and predictive errors in making predictions about hurricane location and intensity 24 to 120 hours beyond known conditions, as reported by the data set. A secondary goal was to expose the ANOVA technique to a broader community within NASA. The independent factors considered to have an influence on the hurricane track included the current and starting longitudes and latitudes (measured in degrees), and current and starting maximum sustained wind speeds (measured in knots), and the storm starting date, its current duration from its first appearance, and the current year fraction of each reading, all measured in years. The year fraction and starting date were included in order to attempt to account for long duration cyclic behaviors, such as seasonal weather patterns, and years in which the sea or atmosphere were unusually warm or cold. The effect of short duration weather patterns and ocean conditions could not be examined with the current data set. The responses analyzed were the storm latitude, longitude and intensity, as recorded in the data set, 24 or 120 hours beyond the current state. Several ANOVA modeling schemes were examined. Two forms of validation were used: 1) comparison with official hurricane prediction performance metrics and 2) cases studies conducted on hurricanes from the 2005 season, which were not included within the model construction and ANOVA assessment. In general, the ANOVA technique did not perform as well as the established official prediction performance metrics published by NOAA; still, the technique did remarkably well in this demonstration with a difficult data set and could probably be made to perform better with more knowledge of hurricane development and dynamics applied to the problem. The technique provides a repeatable prediction process that eliminates the need for judgment in the forecast.

Variability of dissolved organic carbon in precipitation during storms at the Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iavorivska , Lidiia; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Grimm, Jeffrey W.; Miller, Matthew P.; DeWalle, David R.; Davis, Kenneth J.; Kaye, Margot W.

2017-01-01

Organic compounds are removed from the atmosphere and deposited to the earth's surface via precipitation. In this study, we quantified variations of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in precipitation during storm events at the Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory, a forested watershed in central Pennsylvania (USA). Precipitation samples were collected consecutively throughout the storm during 13 events, which spanned a range of seasons and synoptic meteorological conditions, including a hurricane. Further, we explored factors that affect the temporal variability by considering relationships of DOC in precipitation with atmospheric and storm characteristics. Concentrations and chemical composition of DOC changed considerably during storms, with the magnitude of change within individual events being comparable or higher than the range of variation in average event composition among events. While some previous studies observed that concentrations of other elements in precipitation typically decrease over the course of individual storm events, results of this study show that DOC concentrations in precipitation are highly variable. During most storm events concentrations decreased over time, possibly as a result of washing out of the below-cloud atmosphere. However, increasing concentrations that were observed in the later stages of some storm events highlight that DOC removal with precipitation is not merely a dilution response. Increases in DOC during events could result from advection of air masses, local emissions during breaks in precipitation, or chemical transformations in the atmosphere that enhance solubility of organic carbon compounds. This work advances understanding of processes occurring during storms that are relevant to studies of atmospheric chemistry, carbon cycling, and ecosystem responses.

Eurasian Winter Storm Activity at the End of the Century: A CMIP5 Multi-model Ensemble Projection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basu, Soumik; Zhang, Xiangdong; Wang, Zhaomin

2018-01-01

Extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia has exhibited a weakening trend in the recent decade. Extratropical cyclones bring precipitation and hence supply fresh water for winter crops in the mid- and high-latitude regions of Eurasia. Any changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Eurasia in the future may have a critical impact on winter agriculture and the economies of affected communities. However, potential future changes in regional storm activity over Eurasia have not been studied in detail. Therefore, in this study, we investigate anticipated changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century through a detailed examination of the historical and future emission scenarios from six different models from CMIP5. A statistical analysis of different parameters of storm activity using a storm identification and tracking algorithm reveals a decrease in the number of storms over mid-latitude regions. However, intense storms with longer duration are projected over high latitude Eurasia. A further examination of the physical mechanism for these changes reveals that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient and a weakening of the vertical wind shear over the mid-latitudes are responsible for these changes in storm activity.

Serial Clustering of North Atlantic Cyclones and Wind Storms: A New Identification Base and Sensitivity to Intensity and Intra-Seasonal Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leckebusch, G. C.; Kirchner-Bossi, N. O.; Befort, D. J.; Ulbrich, U.

2015-12-01

Time-clustered mid-latitude winter storms are responsible for a large portion of the overall windstorm-related damage in Europe. Thus, its study entails a high meteorological interest, while its outcome can result in a crucial utility for the (re)insurance industry. In addition to existing cyclone-based studies, here we use an event identification approach based on surface near wind speeds only, to investigate windstorm clustering and compare it to cyclone clustering. Specifically, cyclone and windstorm tracks are identified for winter 1979-2013 (Oct-Mar), to perform two sensitivity analyses on event-clustering in the North Atlantic using ERA-Interim Reanalysis. First, the link between clustering and cyclone intensity is analysed and compared to windstorms. Secondly, the sensitivity of clustering on intra-seasonal time scales is investigated, for both cyclones and windstorms. The wind-based approach reveals additional regions of clustering over Western Europe, which could be related to extreme damages, showing the added value of investigating wind field derived tracks in addition to that of cyclone tracks. Previous studies indicate a higher degree of clustering for stronger cyclones. However, our results show that this assumption is not always met. Although a positive relationship is confirmed for the clustering centre located over Iceland, clustering off the coast of the Iberian Peninsula behaves opposite. Even though this region shows the highest clustering, most of its signal is due to cyclones with intensities below the 70th percentile of the Laplacian of MSLP. Results on the sensitivity of clustering to the time of the winter season (Oct-Mar) show a temporal evolution of the clustering patterns, for both windstorms and cyclones. Compared to all cyclones, clustering of windstorms and strongest cyclones culminate around February, while all cyclone clustering peak in December to January.

The Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment (FASTEX): Scientific Objectives and Experimental Design.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Joly, Alain; Jorgensen, Dave; Shapiro, Melvyn A.; Thorpe, Alan; Bessemoulin, Pierre; Browning, Keith A.; Cammas, Jean-Pierre; Chalon, Jean-Pierre; Clough, Sidney A.; Emanuel, Kerry A.; Eymard, Laurence; Gall, Robert; Hildebrand, Peter H.; Langland, Rolf H.; Lemaître, Yvon; Lynch, Peter; Moore, James A.; Persson, P. Ola G.; Snyder, Chris; Wakimoto, Roger M.

1997-09-01

The Fronts and Atlantic Storm-Track Experiment (FASTEX) will address the life cycle of cyclones evolving over the North Atlantic Ocean in January and February 1997. The objectives of FASTEX are to improve the forecasts of end-of-storm-track cyclogenesis (primarily in the eastern Atlantic but with applicability to the Pacific) in the range 24 to 72 h, to enable the testing of theoretical ideas on cyclone formation and development, and to document the vertical and the mesoscale structure of cloud systems in mature cyclones and their relation to the dynamics. The observing system includes ships that will remain in the vicinity of the main baroclinic zone in the central Atlantic Ocean, jet aircraft that will fly and drop sondes off the east coast of North America or over the central Atlantic Ocean, turboprop aircraft that will survey mature cyclones off Ireland with dropsondes, and airborne Doppler radars, including ASTRAIA/ELDORA. Radiosounding frequency around the North Atlantic basin will be increased, as well as the number of drifting buoys. These facilities will be activated during multiple-day intensive observing periods in order to observe the same meteorological systems at several stages of their life cycle. A central archive will be developed in quasi-real time in Toulouse, France, thus allowing data to be made widely available to the scientific community.

Lightning Tracking Tool for Assessment of Total Cloud Lightning within AWIPS II

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burks, Jason E.; Stano, Geoffrey T.; Sperow, Ken

2014-01-01

Total lightning (intra-cloud and cloud-to-ground) has been widely researched and shown to be a valuable tool to aid real-time warning forecasters in the assessment of severe weather potential of convective storms. The trend of total lightning has been related to the strength of a storm's updraft. Therefore a rapid increase in total lightning signifies the strengthening of the parent thunderstorm. The assessment of severe weather potential occurs in a time limited environment and therefore constrains the use of total lightning. A tool has been developed at NASA's Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center to assist in quickly analyzing the total lightning signature of multiple storms. The development of this tool comes as a direct result of forecaster feedback from numerous assessments requesting a real-time display of the time series of total lightning. This tool also takes advantage of the new architecture available within the AWIPS II environment. SPoRT's lightning tracking tool has been tested in the Hazardous Weather Testbed (HWT) Spring Program and significant changes have been made based on the feedback. In addition to the updates in response to the HWT assessment, the lightning tracking tool may also be extended to incorporate other requested displays, such as the intra-cloud to cloud-to-ground ratio as well as incorporate the lightning jump algorithm.

Atmospheric inputs of organic matter to a forested watershed: Variations from storm to storm over the seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iavorivska, Lidiia; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Miller, Matthew P.; Brown, Michael G.; Vasilopoulos, Terrie; Fuentes, Jose D.; Duffy, Christopher J.

2016-12-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the quantity and chemical composition of precipitation inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to a forested watershed; and to characterize the associated temporal variability. We sampled most precipitation that occurred from May 2012 through August 2013 at the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (Pennsylvania, USA). Sub-event precipitation samples (159) were collected sequentially during 90 events; covering various types of synoptic meteorological conditions in all climatic seasons. Precipitation DOC concentrations and rates of wet atmospheric DOC deposition were highly variable from storm to storm, ranging from 0.3 to 5.6 mg C L-1 and from 0.5 to 32.8 mg C m-2 h-1, respectively. Seasonally, storms in spring and summer had higher concentrations of DOC and more optically active organic matter than in winter. Higher DOC concentrations resulted from weather types that favor air advection, where cold frontal systems, on average, delivered more than warm/stationary fronts and northeasters. A mixed modeling statistical approach revealed that factors related to storm properties, emission sources, and to the chemical composition of the atmosphere could explain more than 60% of the storm to storm variability in DOC concentrations. This study provided observations on changes in dissolved organic matter that can be useful in modeling of atmospheric oxidative chemistry, exploring relationships between organics and other elements of precipitation chemistry, and in considering temporal changes in ecosystem nutrient balances and microbial activity.

Storm Surge Hazard in Oman Based on Cyclone Gonu and Historic Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blount, C.; Fritz, H. M.; Albusaidi, F. B.; Al-Harthy, A. H.

2008-12-01

Super Cyclone Gonu was the strongest tropical cyclone on record in the Arabian Sea. Gonu developed sustained winds reaching 240 km/h with gusts up to 315 km/h and an estimated central pressure of 920 mbar by late 4 June 2007 while centered east-southeast of Masirah Island on the coast of Oman. Gonu weakened after encountering dry air and cooler waters prior to the June 5 landfall on the eastern-most tip of Oman, becoming the strongest tropical cyclone to hit the Arabian Peninsula. Gonu dropped heavy rainfall near the eastern coastline, reaching up to 610 mm which caused wadi flooding and heavy damage. The shore parallel cyclone track resulted in coastal damage due to storm surge and storm wave impact along a 300km stretch of Omani coastline. Maximum high water marks, overland flow depths, and inundation distances were measured along the Gulf of Oman during the 1-4 August 2007 reconnaissance. The high water marks peaked at Ras al Hadd at the eastern tip of Oman exceeding 5 meters, surpassing 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami runup at every corresponding point. The cyclone caused $4 billion in damage and at least 49 deaths in the Sultanate of Oman. Prior to Gonu, only two similar cyclones struck the coast of Oman in the last 1200 years (in 865 and 1890). The 1890 storm, which remains the worst natural disaster in Oman's history, drenched the coast from Soor to Suwayq causing inland wadi flooding. Matrah and Muscat were the hardest hit areas with many ships being washed ashore and wrecked. The storm is known to have killed about 727 people and caused huge agricultural and shipping losses. Similarly, the 865 storm affected areas between Gobrah and Sohar. A high-resolution finite element ADCIRC mesh of the Arabian Sea is created to model storm surge and is coupled with STWAVE. Modeling results from Gonu are compared to measurements and used to determine the contribution from storm surge and waves. The 1890 and 865 storms are modeled with standard cyclone parameters and results are compared to historical records to estimate the storm tracks. These results can be used to assess the coastal vulnerability in the Gulf of Oman.

Using a Geographic Information System to Assess the Risk of Hurricane Hazards on the Maya Civilization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weigel, A. M.; Griffin, R.; Sever, T.

2014-12-01

The extent of the Maya civilization spanned across portions of modern day Mexico, Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and Honduras. Paleoclimatic studies suggest this region has been affected by strong hurricanes for the past six thousand years, reinforced by archeological evidence from Mayan records indicating they experienced strong storms. It is theorized hurricanes aided in the collapse of the Maya, damaging building structures, agriculture, and ceasing industry activities. Today, this region is known for its active tropical climatology, being hit by numerous strong storms including Hurricane Dean, Iris, Keith, and Mitch. This research uses a geographic information system (GIS) to model hurricane hazards, and assess the risk posed on the Maya civilization. GIS has the ability to handle various layer components making it optimal for combining parameters necessary for assessing the risk of experiencing hurricane related hazards. For this analysis, high winds, storm surge flooding, non-storm surge related flooding, and rainfall triggered landslides were selected as the primary hurricane hazards. Data sets used in this analysis include the National Climatic Data Center International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardships (IBTrACS) hurricane tracks, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission Digital Elevation Model, WorldClim monthly accumulated precipitation, USGS HydroSHEDS river locations, Harmonized World Soil Database soil types, and known Maya site locations from the Electronic Atlas of Ancient Maya Sites. ArcGIS and ENVI software were utilized to process data and model hurricane hazards. To assess locations at risk of experiencing high winds, a model was created using ArcGIS Model Builder to map each storm's temporal wind profile, and adapted to simulate forward storm velocity, and storm frequency. Modeled results were then combined with physical land characteristics, meteorological, and hydrologic data to identify areas likely affected. Certain areas along the eastern edge of the Yucatan peninsula were found to be more prone to experiencing wind and flood related hurricane hazards. Novel methodologies developed from this analysis can be adapted for further hurricane risk assessment on archeological sites.

Maximum wind radius estimated by the 50 kt radius: improvement of storm surge forecasting over the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Takagi, Hiroshi; Wu, Wenjie

2016-03-01

Even though the maximum wind radius (Rmax) is an important parameter in determining the intensity and size of tropical cyclones, it has been overlooked in previous storm surge studies. This study reviews the existing estimation methods for Rmax based on central pressure or maximum wind speed. These over- or underestimate Rmax because of substantial variations in the data, although an average radius can be estimated with moderate accuracy. As an alternative, we propose an Rmax estimation method based on the radius of the 50 kt wind (R50). Data obtained by a meteorological station network in the Japanese archipelago during the passage of strong typhoons, together with the JMA typhoon best track data for 1990-2013, enabled us to derive the following simple equation, Rmax = 0.23 R50. Application to a recent strong typhoon, the 2015 Typhoon Goni, confirms that the equation provides a good estimation of Rmax, particularly when the central pressure became considerably low. Although this new method substantially improves the estimation of Rmax compared to the existing models, estimation errors are unavoidable because of fundamental uncertainties regarding the typhoon's structure or insufficient number of available typhoon data. In fact, a numerical simulation for the 2013 Typhoon Haiyan as well as 2015 Typhoon Goni demonstrates a substantial difference in the storm surge height for different Rmax. Therefore, the variability of Rmax should be taken into account in storm surge simulations (e.g., Rmax = 0.15 R50-0.35 R50), independently of the model used, to minimize the risk of over- or underestimating storm surges. The proposed method is expected to increase the predictability of major storm surges and to contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in the western North Pacific, including countries such as Japan, China, Taiwan, the Philippines, and Vietnam.

CloudSat Profiles Tropical Storm Andrea

NASA Image and Video Library

2007-05-10

CloudSat's Cloud Profiling Radar captured a profile across Tropical Storm Andrea on Wednesday, May 9, 2007, near the South Carolina/Georgia/Florida Atlantic coast. The upper image shows an infrared view of Tropical Storm Andrea from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite, with CloudSat's ground track shown as a red line. The lower image is the vertical cross section of radar reflectivity along this path, where the colors indicate the intensity of the reflected radar energy. CloudSat orbits approximately one minute behind Aqua in a satellite formation known as the A-Train. http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA09379

Natural disasters online

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Showstack, Randy

Wildfires, severe storms, floods, volcanic eruptions, and major air pollution events are types of major natural hazards that NASA will track on a new Web site unveiled on 16 January. The site, part of the agency's Earth Observatory, will track these hazards in near-real time with imagery acquired from NASA's Earth Science Enterprise and Earth Observing System satellite missions, along with related descriptive information.

Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Water Resources in the Southeast USA

Treesearch

Ge Sun; Peter V. Caldwell; Steven G. McNulty; Aris P. Georgakakos; Sankar Arumugam; James Cruise; Richard T. McNider; Adam Terando; Paul A. Conrads; John Feldt; Vasu Misra; Luigi Romolo; Todd C. Rasmussen; Daniel A. Marion

2013-01-01

Key FindingsClimate change is affecting the southeastern USA, particularly increases in rainfall variability and air temperature, which have resulted in more frequent hydrologic extremes, such as high‐intensity storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), flooding, and drought events.Future climate warming likely will...

A Global Geographic Information System Data Base of Storm Occurrences and Other Climatic Phenomena Affecting Coastal Zones (1991) (NDP-035)

DOE Data Explorer

Birdwell, Kevub R. [Murray State University, Kentucky; Daniels, Richard C.

2012-01-01

This NDP is unique in that it represents CDIAC's first offering of ARC/INFOTM export data files and equivalent flat ASCII data files that may be used by raster or vector geographic information systems (GISs). The data set contains 61 variables, including information on tropical storms, hurricanes, super typhoons, extratropical cyclogeneses, polar lows, cyclonicity, influence of winds in monsoon regions, and sea-ice concentrations. Increased availability of source data has made it possible to extend the area of these data variables to regional or global coverages. All data variables except five are referenced to 1° × 1° or 5° × 5° grid cells of latitude and longitude. These data help meet the demand for new and improved climatologies of storm events and may be used in climate research studies, including the verification of general circulation models and the calculation of storm-recurrence intervals.

Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

2015-07-01

Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/2014 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper-beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number of the storms. This model application provides inter-survey information about morphological response to repeated storm impact. This will inform local managers of the potential beach response and dune vulnerability to variable storm configurations.

Impacts of storm chronology on the morphological changes of the Formby beach and dune system, UK

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dissanayake, P.; Brown, J.; Karunarathna, H.

2015-04-01

Impacts of storm chronology within a storm cluster on beach/dune erosion are investigated by applying the state-of-the-art numerical model XBeach to the Sefton coast, northwest England. Six temporal storm clusters of different storm chronologies were formulated using three storms observed during the 2013/14 winter. The storm power values of these three events nearly halve from the first to second event and from the second to third event. Cross-shore profile evolution was simulated in response to the tide, surge and wave forcing during these storms. The model was first calibrated against the available post-storm survey profiles. Cumulative impacts of beach/dune erosion during each storm cluster were simulated by using the post-storm profile of an event as the pre-storm profile for each subsequent event. For the largest event the water levels caused noticeable retreat of the dune toe due to the high water elevation. For the other events the greatest evolution occurs over the bar formations (erosion) and within the corresponding troughs (deposition) of the upper beach profile. The sequence of events impacting the size of this ridge-runnel feature is important as it consequently changes the resilience of the system to the most extreme event that causes dune retreat. The highest erosion during each single storm event was always observed when that storm initialised the storm cluster. The most severe storm always resulted in the most erosion during each cluster, no matter when it occurred within the chronology, although the erosion volume due to this storm was reduced when it was not the primary event. The greatest cumulative cluster erosion occurred with increasing storm severity; however, the variability in cumulative cluster impact over a beach/dune cross-section due to storm chronology is minimal. Initial storm impact can act to enhance or reduce the system resilience to subsequent impact, but overall the cumulative impact is controlled by the magnitude and number of the storms. This model application provides inter-survey information about morphological response to repeated storm impact. This will inform local managers of the potential beach response and dune vulnerability to variable storm configurations.

Role of upper-ocean on the intensity of Bay of Bengal cyclone `Phailin' as revealed by coupled simulation using Mesoscale Coupled Modeling System (WRF-ROMS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mani, B.; Mandal, M.

2016-12-01

Numerical prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) track has improved significantly in recent years, but not the intensity. It is well accepted that TC induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling in conjunction with pre-existing upper-ocean features have major influences on tropical cyclone intensity. Absence of two-way atmosphere-ocean feedback in the stand-alone atmosphere models has major consequences on their prediction of TC intensity. The present study investigates the role of upper-ocean on prediction of TC intensity and track based on coupled and uncoupled simulation of the Bay of Bengal (BoB) cyclone `Phailin'. The coupled simulation is conducted with the Mesoscale Coupled Modeling System (MCMS) which is a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling system that includes the non-hydrostatic atmospheric model (WRF-ARW) and the three-dimensional hydrostatic ocean model (ROMS). The uncoupled simulation is performed using the atmosphere component of MCMS i.e., the customized version of WRF-ARW for BoB cyclones with prescribed (RTG) SST. The track and intensity of the storm is significantly better simulated by the MCMS and closely followed the observation. The peak intensity, landfall position and time are accurately predicted by MCMS, whereas the uncoupled simulation over predicted the storm intensity. Validation of storm induced SST cooling with the merged microwave-infrared satellite SST indicates that the MCMS simulation shows better correlation both in terms of spatial spread of cold wake and its magnitude. The analysis also suggests that the Pre-existing Cyclonic Eddy (PCE) observed adjacent to the storm enhanced the TC induced SST cooling. It is observed that the response of SST (i.e., cooling) to storm intensity is 12hr with 95% statistical significance. The air-sea enthalpy flux shows a clear asymmetry between Front Left (FL) and Rear Right (RR) regime to the storm center where TC induced cooling is more than 0.5K/24hr. The analysis of atmospheric boundary layer reveals the formation of persistent stable boundary layer (SBL) over the cold wake, which caused asymmetry in TC structure by quelling convection in the rainbands downstream to the cold wake. The present study signifies the importance of using MCMS in prediction of the BoB cyclone and encourages further investigation with more cyclone cases.

Ensemble projection of the sea level rise impact on storm surge and inundation at the coast of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jisan, Mansur Ali; Bao, Shaowu; Pietrafesa, Leonard J.

2018-01-01

The hydrodynamic model Delft3D is used to study the impact of sea level rise (SLR) on storm surge and inundation in the coastal region of Bangladesh. To study the present-day inundation scenario, the tracks of two known tropical cyclones (TC) were used: Aila (Category 1; 2009) and Sidr (Category 5; 2007). Model results were validated with the available observations. Future inundation scenarios were generated by using the strength of TC Sidr, TC Aila and an ensemble of historical TC tracks but incorporating the effect of SLR. Since future change in storm surge inundation under SLR impact is a probabilistic incident, a probable range of future change in the inundated area was calculated by taking into consideration the uncertainties associated with TC tracks, intensities and landfall timing. The model outputs showed that the inundated area for TC Sidr, which was calculated as 1860 km2, would become 31 % larger than the present-day scenario if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred during the mid-21st-century climate scenario. Similarly to that, an increasing trend was found for the end-21st-century climate scenario. It was found that with a SLR of 0.54 m, the inundated area would become 53 % larger than the present-day case. Along with the inundation area, the impact of SLR was examined for changes in future storm surge level. A significant increase of 14 % was found in storm surge level for the case of TC Sidr at Barisal station if a SLR of 0.26 m occurred in the mid-21st century. Similarly to that, an increase of 29 % was found at storm surge level with a SLR of 0.54 m in this location for the end-21st-century climate scenario. Ensemble projections based on uncertainties of future TC events also showed that, for a change of 0.54 m in SLR, the inundated area would range between 3500 and 3750 km2, whereas for present-day SLR simulations it was found within the range of 1000-1250 km2. These results revealed that even if the future TCs remain at the same strength as at present, the projected changes in SLR will generate more severe threats in terms of surge height and the extent of the inundated area.

High-resolution station-based diurnal ionospheric total electron content (TEC) from dual-frequency GPS observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ćepni, Murat S.; Potts, Laramie V.; Miima, John B.

2013-09-01

electron content (TEC) estimates derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signal delays provide a rich source of information about the Earth's ionosphere. Networks of Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers data can be used to represent the ionosphere by a Global Ionospheric Map (GIM). Data input for GIMs is dual-frequency GNSS-only or a mixture of GNSS and altimetry observations. Parameterization of GNSS-only GIMs approaches the ionosphere as a single-layer model (SLM) to determine GPS TEC models over a region. Limitations in GNSS-only GIM TEC are due largely to the nonhomogenous global distribution of GPS tracking stations with large data gaps over the oceans. The utility of slant GPS ionospheric-induced path delays for high temporal resolution from a single-station data rate offers better representation of TEC over a small region. A station-based vertical TEC (TECV) approach modifies the traditional single-layer model (SLM) GPS TEC method by introducing a zenith angle weighting (ZAW) filter to capture signal delays from mostly near-zenith satellite passes. Comparison with GIMs shows the station-dependent TEC (SD-TEC) model exhibits robust performance under variable space weather conditions. The SD-TEC model was applied to investigate ionospheric TEC variability during the geomagnetic storm event of 9 March 2012 at midlatitude station NJJJ located in New Jersey, USA. The high temporal resolution TEC results suggest TEC production and loss rate differences before, during, and after the storm.

Stalling Tropical Cyclones over the Atlantic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nielsen-Gammon, J. W.; Emanuel, K.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey produced massive amounts of rain over southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. Average storm total rainfall amounts over a 10,000 square mile (26,000 square km) area exceeded 30 inches (750 mm). An important aspect of the storm that contributed to the large rainfall totals was its unusual motion. The storm stalled shortly after making landfall, then moved back offshore before once again making landfall five days later. This storm motion permitted heavy rainfall to occur in the same general area for an extended period of time. The unusual nature of this event motivates an investigation into the characteristics and potential climate change influences on stalled tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin using the HURDAT 2 storm track database for 1866-2016 and downscaled tropical cyclones driven by simulations of present and future climate. The motion of cyclones is quantified as the size of a circle circumscribing all storm locations during a given length of time. For a three-day period, Harvey remained inside a circle with a radius of 123 km. This ranks within the top 0.6% of slowest-moving historical storm instances. Among the 2% of slowest-moving storm instances prior to Harvey, only 13 involved storms that stalled near the continental United States coast, where they may have produced substantial rainfall onshore while tapping into marine moisture. Only two such storms stalled in the month of September, in contrast to 20 September stalls out of the 36 storms that stalled over the nearby open Atlantic. Just four of the stalled coastal storms were hurricanes, implying a return frequency for such storms of much less than once per decade. The synoptic setting of these storms is examined for common features, and historical and projected trends in occurrences of stalled storms near the coast and farther offshore are investigated.

Analysis and validation of severe storm parameters derived from TITAN in Southeast Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gomes, Ana Maria; Held, Gerhard; Vernini, Rafael; Demetrio Souza, Caio

2014-05-01

The implementation of TITAN (Thundestorm Identification, Tracking and Nowcasting) System at IPMet in December 2005 has provided real-time access to the storm severity parameters derived from radar reflectivity, which are being used to identify and alert of potentially severe storms within the 240 km quantitative ranges of the Bauru and Presidente Prudente S-band radars. The potential of these tools available with the TITAN system is being evaluated by using the hail reports received from voluntary hail observers to cross-check the occurrence of hail within the radar range against the TITAN predictions. Part of the ongoing research at IPMet aims to determine "signatures" in severe events and therefore, as from 2008, an online standard form was introduced, allowing for greater detail on the occurrence of a severe event within the 240 km ranges of both radars. The model for the hail report was based on the one initially deployed by the Alberta Hail Program, in Canada, and also by the Hail Observer Network established by the CSIR (Council for Scientific and Industrial Research), in Pretoria, South Africa, where it was used for more than 25 years. The TITAN system was deployed to obtain the tracking properties of storms for this analysis. A cell was defined by the thresholds of 40 dBZ for the reflectivity and 16 km3 for the volume, observed at least in two consecutive volume scans (15 minutes). Besides tracking and Nowcasting the movement of storm cells, TITAN comprises algorithms that allow the identification of potentially severe storm "signatures", such as the hail metrics, to indicate the probability of hail (POH), based on a combination of radar data and the knowledge of the vertical temperature distribution of the atmosphere. Another two parameters, also related to hail producing storms, called FOKR (Foote-Krauss) index and HMA (Hail Mass Aloft) index is also included. The period from 2008 to 2013 was used to process all available information about storm characteristics, such as, onset time, duration and size of hail. The results of the analysis for the time evolution of the storm cells properties enabled the identification of the following key signatures for hail-producing cells: storm volume varying between at least 250 km3 and 1850 km3; average speed of more than 50 km/h; FOKR and POH indices with values between 3 and 4 and 0,8 to 1, respectively, observed at the same time as hail was reported to have fallen on the ground; HMA parameters (mass of hail accumulated aloft) peaking between 80 tons and 808 tons, preceding the time of the hail observed on the ground. The onset of hail, indicated in the reports, corroborates the time near the observed collapse of the cell indicated by a decreasing value of the severity indices provided by TITAN. This ongoing research will add more cases to include not only hail-producing cells, but also those associated with extreme winds and flash floods, to contribute towards the improvement of IPMet's radar bulletins issued routinely by the operational sector for the private and public sector, like the Civil Defense Authorities of the state of São Paulo.

New Hurricane Exhibit

NASA Image and Video Library

2007-08-29

A new exhibit in StenniSphere depicting NASA's role in hurricane prediction and research and SSC's role in helping the region recover from Hurricane Katrina. The cyclone-shaped exhibit focuses on the effects of the Aug. 29, 2005 storm and outlines how NASA is working to improve weather forecasting. Through photos, 3-D models and digital animations, the exhibit tells the story of what happened inside the storm and how NASA's scientific research can increase the accuracy of hurricane tracking and modeling.

New Hurricane Exhibit

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2007-01-01

A new exhibit in StenniSphere depicting NASA's role in hurricane prediction and research and SSC's role in helping the region recover from Hurricane Katrina. The cyclone-shaped exhibit focuses on the effects of the Aug. 29, 2005 storm and outlines how NASA is working to improve weather forecasting. Through photos, 3-D models and digital animations, the exhibit tells the story of what happened inside the storm and how NASA's scientific research can increase the accuracy of hurricane tracking and modeling.

Delineation of landform and lithologic units for Ecological Landtype-Association analysis in Glacier Bay National Park, Southeast Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brew, David A.

2008-01-01

In this study, landforms were classified-by using topographic maps and personal experience-into eight categories similar to those used by the U.S. Forest Service. The 90 bedrock-lithologic units on the current Glacier Bay geologic map were classified into 13 generalized lithologic units corresponding exactly to those used by the U.S. Forest Service. Incomplete storm-track, storm-intensity, and limited climatic information have also been compiled.

Physical Processes Involved in the 1988 Drought and 1993 Floods in North America.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Guillemot, Christian J.

1996-06-01

An analysis of the spring-summer 1988 drought and 1993 floods over North America reveals a reversal in the sign of anomalies in several fields. Large sea surface temperature anomalies of opposite signs existed in the tropical Pacific with strong La Niña conditions in 1988 and a mature El Niño in 1993. The distribution of tropical convection in the convergence zones and associated latent heating of the atmosphere were correspondingly altered, implying a large-scale switch in the anomalous tropical heating and forcing of extratropical quasi-stationary waves in the atmosphere, influencing the subtropical jet stream over the North Pacific and across North America. In 1988 the jet stream and the closely related storm track of high-frequency disturbances in the upper troposphere were displaced into Canada well north of the normal location-the farthest north of any year from 1979 to 1993. In 1993 a broader jet stream and the storm track were displaced well south of normal to a more springlike location across the United States-the farthest south by over 200 km of any year from 1979 to 1993. High-frequency eddy activity in the Pacific-North American storm track is shown to reinforce the anomalous jet streams in both years.An analysis of the moisture budgets reveals a stronger river of atmospheric moisture flowing across the Gulf of Mexico into the central and eastern United States in 1993. Also, in the lower atmosphere, the storm track in 1993 was more active, and its lower latitude allowed the cyclonic disturbances to tap into the moisture source, transport moisture into the upper Mississippi River basin, and precipitate it out. It is deduced that local evaporation may have enhanced the precipitation and helped perpetuate and prolong the conditions. In contrast, in 1988 disturbances were weaker and displaced far enough north to avoid most of the moisture source, and the drought was perpetuated by the dry conditions. Consequently, these effects should be viewed as feedbacks that amplify and prolong the response, while from the standpoint of the atmosphere, the anomalous tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are a notable (but not the sole) external forcing of the patterns.

Atmospheric inputs of organic matter to a forested watershed: Variations from storm to storm over the seasons

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iavorivska , Lidiia; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Miller, Matthew P.; Brown, Michael G.; Vasilopoulos , Terrie; Fuentes, Jose D.; Duffy, Christopher J.

2016-01-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the quantity and chemical composition of precipitation inputs of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) to a forested watershed; and to characterize the associated temporal variability. We sampled most precipitation that occurred from May 2012 through August 2013 at the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (Pennsylvania, USA). Sub-event precipitation samples (159) were collected sequentially during 90 events; covering various types of synoptic meteorological conditions in all climatic seasons. Precipitation DOC concentrations and rates of wet atmospheric DOC deposition were highly variable from storm to storm, ranging from 0.3 to 5.6 mg C L−1 and from 0.5 to 32.8 mg C m−2 h−1, respectively. Seasonally, storms in spring and summer had higher concentrations of DOC and more optically active organic matter than in winter. Higher DOC concentrations resulted from weather types that favor air advection, where cold frontal systems, on average, delivered more than warm/stationary fronts and northeasters. A mixed modeling statistical approach revealed that factors related to storm properties, emission sources, and to the chemical composition of the atmosphere could explain more than 60% of the storm to storm variability in DOC concentrations. This study provided observations on changes in dissolved organic matter that can be useful in modeling of atmospheric oxidative chemistry, exploring relationships between organics and other elements of precipitation chemistry, and in considering temporal changes in ecosystem nutrient balances and microbial activity.

The trend of the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, P.; Yu, Z.

2011-12-01

Hydrological problems like estimation of flood and drought frequencies under future climate change are not well addressed as a result of the disability of current climate models to provide reliable prediction (especially for precipitation) shorter than 1 month. In order to assess the possible impacts that multi-scale temporal distribution of precipitation may have on the hydrological processes in Colorado River Basin (CRB), a comparative analysis of multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation as well as the trend of extreme precipitation is conducted in four regions controlled by different climate systems. Multi-scale precipitation variability including within-storm patterns and intra-annual, inter-annual and decadal variabilities will be analyzed to explore the possible trends of storm durations, inter-storm periods, average storm precipitation intensities and extremes under both long-term natural climate variability and human-induced warming. Further more, we will examine the ability of current climate models to simulate the multi-scale temporal variability and extremes of precipitation. On the basis of these analyses, a statistical downscaling method will be developed to disaggregate the future precipitation scenarios which will provide a more reliable and finer temporal scale precipitation time series for hydrological modeling. Analysis results and downscaling results will be presented.

Robustness of serial clustering of extra-tropical cyclones to the choice of tracking method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinto, Joaquim G.; Ulbrich, Sven; Karremann, Melanie K.; Stephenson, David B.; Economou, Theodoros; Shaffrey, Len C.

2016-04-01

Cyclone families are a frequent synoptic weather feature in the Euro-Atlantic area in winter. Given appropriate large-scale conditions, the occurrence of such series (clusters) of storms may lead to large socio-economic impacts and cumulative losses. Recent studies analyzing Reanalysis data using single cyclone tracking methods have shown that serial clustering of cyclones occurs on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This study explores the sensitivity of serial clustering to the choice of tracking method. With this aim, the IMILAST cyclone track database based on ERA-interim data is analysed. Clustering is estimated by the dispersion (ratio of variance to mean) of winter (DJF) cyclones passages near each grid point over the Euro-Atlantic area. Results indicate that while the general pattern of clustering is identified for all methods, there are considerable differences in detail. This can primarily be attributed to the differences in the variance of cyclone counts between the methods, which range up to one order of magnitude. Nevertheless, clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe can be identified for all methods and can thus be generally considered as a robust feature. The statistical links between large-scale patterns like the NAO and clustering are obtained for all methods, though with different magnitudes. We conclude that the occurrence of cyclone clustering over the Eastern North Atlantic and Western Europe is largely independent from the choice of tracking method and hence from the definition of a cyclone.

Seamless Modeling for Research & Predictability of Severe Tropical Storms from Weather-to-Climate Timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramaswamy, V.; Chen, J. H.; Delworth, T. L.; Knutson, T. R.; Lin, S. J.; Murakami, H.; Vecchi, G. A.

2017-12-01

Damages from catastrophic tropical storms such as the 2017 destructive hurricanes compel an acceleration of scientific advancements to understand the genesis, underlying mechanisms, frequency, track, intensity, and landfall of these storms. The advances are crucial to provide improved early information for planners and responders. We discuss the development and utilization of a global modeling capability based on a novel atmospheric dynamical core ("Finite-Volume Cubed Sphere or FV3") which captures the realism of the recent tropical storms and is a part of the NOAA Next-Generation Global Prediction System. This capability is also part of an emerging seamless modeling system at NOAA/ Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory for simulating the frequency of storms on seasonal and longer timescales with high fidelity e.g., Atlantic hurricane frequency over the past decades. In addition, the same modeling system has also been employed to evaluate the nature of projected storms on the multi-decadal scales under the influence of anthropogenic factors such as greenhouse gases and aerosols. The seamless modeling system thus facilitates research into and the predictability of severe tropical storms across diverse timescales of practical interest to several societal sectors.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bosler, Peter

Stride Search provides a flexible tool for detecting storms or other extreme climate events in high-resolution climate data sets saved on uniform latitude-longitude grids in standard NetCDF format. Users provide the software a quantitative description of a meteorological event they are interested in; the software searches a data set for locations in space and time that meet the user’s description. In its first stage, Stride Search performs a spatial search of the data set at each timestep by dividing a search domain into circular sectors of constant geodesic radius. Data from a netCDF file is read into memory for eachmore » circular search sector. If the data meet or exceed a set of storm identification criteria (defined by the user), a storm is recorded to a linked list. Finally, the linked list is examined and duplicate detections of the same storm are removed and the results are written to an output file. The first stage’s output file is read by a second program that builds storm. Additional identification criteria may be applied at this stage to further classify storms. Storm tracks are the software’s ultimate output and routines are provided for formatting that output for various external software libraries for plotting and tabulating data.« less

Toward Realistic Simulation of low-Level Clouds Using a Multiscale Modeling Framework With a Third-Order Turbulence Closure in its Cloud-Resolving Model Component

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Xu, Kuan-Man; Cheng, Anning

2010-01-01

This study presents preliminary results from a multiscale modeling framework (MMF) with an advanced third-order turbulence closure in its cloud-resolving model (CRM) component. In the original MMF, the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3.5) is used as the host general circulation model (GCM), and the System for Atmospheric Modeling with a first-order turbulence closure is used as the CRM for representing cloud processes in each grid box of the GCM. The results of annual and seasonal means and diurnal variability are compared between the modified and original MMFs and the CAM3.5. The global distributions of low-level cloud amounts and precipitation and the amounts of low-level clouds in the subtropics and middle-level clouds in mid-latitude storm track regions in the modified MMF show substantial improvement relative to the original MMF when both are compared to observations. Some improvements can also be seen in the diurnal variability of precipitation.

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging over the Northeastern Pacific

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-01-01

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter 'rainy season.' Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient-including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures, and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

Remote Linkages to Anomalous Winter Atmospheric Ridging Over the Northeastern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Daniel L.; Singh, Deepti; Horton, Daniel E.; Mankin, Justin S.; Ballard, Tristan C.; Diffenbaugh, Noah S.

2017-11-01

Severe drought in California between 2013 and 2016 has been linked to the multiyear persistence of anomalously high atmospheric pressure over the northeastern Pacific Ocean, which deflected the Pacific storm track northward and suppressed regional precipitation during California's winter "rainy season." Multiple hypotheses have emerged regarding why this high pressure ridge near the west coast of North America was so resilient—including unusual sea surface temperature patterns in the Pacific Ocean, reductions in Arctic sea ice, random atmospheric variability, or some combination thereof. Here we explore relationships between previously documented atmospheric conditions over the North Pacific and several potential remote oceanic and cryospheric influences using both observational data and a large ensemble of climate model simulations. Our results suggest that persistent wintertime atmospheric ridging similar to that implicated in California's 2013-2016 drought can at least partially be linked to unusual Pacific sea surface temperatures and that Pacific Ocean conditions may offer some degree of cool-season foresight in this region despite the presence of substantial internal variability.

Influence of climate variability on near-surface ozone depletion events in the Arctic spring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koo, Ja-Ho; Wang, Yuhang; Jiang, Tianyu; Deng, Yi; Oltmans, Samuel J.; Solberg, Sverre

2014-04-01

Near-surface ozone depletion events (ODEs) generally occur in the Arctic spring, and the frequency shows large interannual variations. We use surface ozone measurements at Barrow, Alert, and Zeppelinfjellet to analyze if their variations are due to climate variability. In years with frequent ODEs at Barrow and Alert, the western Pacific (WP) teleconnection pattern is usually in its negative phase, during which the Pacific jet is strengthened but the storm track originated over the western Pacific is weakened. Both factors tend to reduce the transport of ozone-rich air mass from midlatitudes to the Arctic, creating a favorable environment for the ODEs. The correlation of ODE frequencies at Zeppelinfjellet with WP indices is higher in the 2000s, reflecting stronger influence of the WP pattern in recent decade to cover ODEs in broader Arctic regions. We find that the WP pattern can be used to diagnose ODE changes and subsequent environmental impacts in the Arctic spring.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Fuyu; Collins, William D.; Wehner, Michael F.

High-resolution climate models have been shown to improve the statistics of tropical storms and hurricanes compared to low-resolution models. The impact of increasing horizontal resolution in the tropical storm simulation is investigated exclusively using a series of Atmospheric Global Climate Model (AGCM) runs with idealized aquaplanet steady-state boundary conditions and a fixed operational storm-tracking algorithm. The results show that increasing horizontal resolution helps to detect more hurricanes, simulate stronger extreme rainfall, and emulate better storm structures in the models. However, increasing model resolution does not necessarily produce stronger hurricanes in terms of maximum wind speed, minimum sea level pressure, andmore » mean precipitation, as the increased number of storms simulated by high-resolution models is mainly associated with weaker storms. The spatial scale at which the analyses are conducted appears to have more important control on these meteorological statistics compared to horizontal resolution of the model grid. When the simulations are analyzed on common low-resolution grids, the statistics of the hurricanes, particularly the hurricane counts, show reduced sensitivity to the horizontal grid resolution and signs of scale invariant.« less

Coastal wave measurements during passage of tropical storm Amy

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morris, W. D.

1977-01-01

Aerial photographic and laser profilometer data of waves generated by tropical storm Amy are presented. The data mission consisted primarily of two legs, one in the direction of the wind waves, and the second along the direction of swell propagation, using Jennette's Pier at Nags Head, North Carolina, as a focal point. At flight time, Amy's center was 512 nmi from shore and had maximum winds of 60 knots. The storm's history is presented, along with a satellite photograph, showing the extent of the storm on the day of the flight. Flight ground tracks are presented along with sample aerial photographs of the wave conditions showing approximate wavelength and direction. Sample wave energy spectra are presented both from the laser profilometer onboard the aircraft, and from the Corps of Engineers Research Center (CERC) shore gauge at Nags Head, North Carolina.

The promise of remote sensing in the atmospheric sciences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atlas, D.

1981-01-01

The applications and advances in remote sensing technology for weather prediction, mesoscale meteorology, severe storms, and climate studies are discussed. Doppler radar permits tracking of the three-dimensional field of motion within storms, thereby increasing the accuracy of convective storm modeling. Single Doppler units are also employed for detecting mesoscale storm vortices and tornado vortex signatures with lead times of 30 min. Clear air radar in pulsed and high resolution FM-CW forms reveals boundary layer convection, Kelvin-Helmoltz waves, shear layer turbulence, and wave motions. Lidar is successfully employed for stratospheric aerosol measurements, while Doppler lidar provides data on winds from the ground and can be based in space. Sodar is useful for determining the structure of the PBL. Details and techniques of satellite-based remote sensing are presented, and results from the GWE and FGGE experiments are discussed.

Meteorological data-processing package

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Billingsly, J. B.; Braken, P. A.

1979-01-01

METPAK, meteorological data-processing package of satellite data used to develop cloud-tracking maps, is given. Data can develop and enhance numerical prediction models for mesoscale phenomena and improve ability to detect and predict storms.

Assessing Impacts of Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Tracks

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, Li-Guang; Wang, Bin

2003-01-01

A new approach is proposed to assess the possible impacts of the global climate change on tropical cyclone (TC) tracks in the western North Pacific (WNP) basin. The idea is based on the premise that the future change of TC track characteristics is primarily determined by changes in large-scale environmental steering flows. It is demonstrated that the main characteristics of the current climatology of TC tracks can be derived from the climatological mean velocity field of TC motion by using a trajectory model. The climatological mean velocity of TC motion, which is composed of the large-scale steering and beta drift, is determined on each grid of the basin. The mean beta drift is estimated from the best track data, and the mean large-scale steering flow is computed from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for the current climate state. The derived mean beta drift agrees well with the results of previous observational and numerical studies in terms of its direction and magnitude. The outputs of experiments A2 and B2 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) R30 climate model suggest that the subtropical high will be persistently weak over the western part of the WNP or shift eastward during July-September in response to the future climate change. By assuming that the mean beta drift in the future climate state is unchanged, the change in the general circulation by 2059 will decrease the TC activities in the WNP, but favor a northward shift of typical TC tracks. As a result, the storm activities in the South China Sea will decrease by about 12%, while the Japan region will experience an increase of TCs by 12-15%. During the period of 2000-2029, the tropical storms that affect the China region will increase by 5-6%, but return to the current level during 2030-2059. It is also suggested that, during the period of 2030-2059 tropical storms will more frequently affect Japan and the middle latitude region of China given that the formation locations remain the same as in the current climate state.

Methods to Improve the Maintenance of the Earth Catalog of Satellites During Severe Solar Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilkin, Paul G.; Tolson, Robert H.

1998-01-01

The objective of this thesis is to investigate methods to improve the ability to maintain the inventory of orbital elements of Earth satellites during periods of atmospheric disturbance brought on by severe solar activity. Existing techniques do not account for such atmospheric dynamics, resulting in tracking errors of several seconds in predicted crossing time. Two techniques are examined to reduce of these tracking errors. First, density predicted from various atmospheric models is fit to the orbital decay rate for a number of satellites. An orbital decay model is then developed that could be used to reduce tracking errors by accounting for atmospheric changes. The second approach utilizes a Kalman filter to estimate the orbital decay rate of a satellite after every observation. The new information is used to predict the next observation. Results from the first approach demonstrated the feasibility of building an orbital decay model based on predicted atmospheric density. Correlation of atmospheric density to orbital decay was as high as 0.88. However, it is clear that contemporary: atmospheric models need further improvement in modeling density perturbations polar region brought on by solar activity. The second approach resulted in a dramatic reduction in tracking errors for certain satellites during severe solar Storms. For example, in the limited cases studied, the reduction in tracking errors ranged from 79 to 25 percent.

Development of a Seasonal Extratropical Cyclone Activity Outlook for the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaskan Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shippee, N. J.; Atkinson, D. E.; Walsh, J. E.; Partain, J.; Gottschalck, J.; Marra, J. J.

2013-12-01

Storm activity (i.e. 'storminess') and associated forecasting skill in the North Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaska is relatively well understood on a daily to weekly scale, however, two important elements are missing from current capacity. First, there is no way to predict storm activity at the monthly to seasonal time frame. Second, storm activity is characterized in terms that best serve weather specialists, and which are often not very informative for different sectors of the public. Increasing the utility of forecasts for end users requires consultation with these groups, and can include expressing storm activity in terms of, for example, strong-wind return intervals or ship hull strength. These types of forecasts can provide valuable information for use in community planning, resource allocation, or potential risk assessment. A preliminary study of seasonal storminess predictability in the North Pacific and Alaska regions has shown that a key factor related to the annual variation of seasonal storminess is the strength of the Aleutian Low as measured using indices such as the North Pacific Index (NPI) or Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALPI). Use of Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to identify patterns in storminess variability indicates that the primary mode of annual variation is found to be best explained by the variation in the strength of the Aleutian Low. NPI and the first component of storm activity for the entire region are found to be are highly correlated (R = 0.83). This result is supported by the works of others such as Rodionov et al. (2007), who note the impact of the strength of the Aleutian Low on storm track and speed. Additionally, the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), along with NPI, have been shown to be highly correlated with annual variance in the seasonal storminess for the North Pacific and Alaska. Additional skill has been identified when the phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is explicitly considered along with that of the NPI. For example, where the December through March NPI anomaly is negative, indicating a strong Aleutian Low, and PDO anomaly is positive, storminess is increased in the Aleutians and the Bering Sea and storms more rapidly exit the Gulf of Alaska. In similar fashion, when the phases of the NPI and PDO anomaly are switched, the storminess increases into the Gulf of Alaska with slower moving storms and longer residence time in the Gulf of Alaska. Methods used to develop the seasonal outlooks and the overall results of the will be overviewed in this presentation.

Moisture convergence using satellite-derived wind fields - A severe local storm case study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Negri, A. J.; Vonder Haar, T. H.

1980-01-01

Five-minute interval 1-km resolution SMS visible channel data were used to derive low-level wind fields by tracking small cumulus clouds on NASA's Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System. The satellite-derived wind fields were combined with surface mixing ratios to derive horizontal moisture convergence in the prestorm environment of April 24, 1975. Storms began developing in an area extending from southwest Oklahoma to eastern Tennessee 2 h subsequent to the time of the derived fields. The maximum moisture convergence was computed to be 0.0022 g/kg per sec and areas of low-level convergence of moisture were in general indicative of regions of severe storm genesis. The resultant moisture convergence fields derived from two wind sets 20 min apart were spatially consistent and reflected the mesoscale forcing of ensuing storm development. Results are discussed with regard to possible limitations in quantifying the relationship between low-level flow and between low-level flow and satellite-derived cumulus motion in an antecedent storm environment.

Understanding Variability in Beach Slope to Improve Forecasts of Storm-induced Water Levels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doran, K. S.; Stockdon, H. F.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

The National Assessment of Hurricane-Induced Coastal Erosion Hazards combines measurements of beach morphology with storm hydrodynamics to produce forecasts of coastal change during storms for the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastlines of the United States. Wave-induced water levels are estimated using modeled offshore wave height and period and measured beach slope (from dune toe to shoreline) through the empirical parameterization of Stockdon et al. (2006). Spatial and temporal variability in beach slope leads to corresponding variability in predicted wave setup and swash. Seasonal and storm-induced changes in beach slope can lead to differences on the order of a meter in wave runup elevation, making accurate specification of this parameter essential to skillful forecasts of coastal change. Spatial variation in beach slope is accounted for through alongshore averaging, but temporal variability in beach slope is not included in the final computation of the likelihood of coastal change. Additionally, input morphology may be years old and potentially very different than the conditions present during forecast storm. In order to improve our forecasts of hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards, the temporal variability of beach slope must be included in the final uncertainty of modeled wave-induced water levels. Frequently collected field measurements of lidar-based beach morphology are examined for study sites in Duck, North Carolina, Treasure Island, Florida, Assateague Island, Virginia, and Dauphin Island, Alabama, with some records extending over a period of 15 years. Understanding the variability of slopes at these sites will help provide estimates of associated water level uncertainty which can then be applied to other areas where lidar observations are infrequent, and improve the overall skill of future forecasts of storm-induced coastal change. Stockdon, H. F., Holman, R. A., Howd, P. A., and Sallenger Jr, A. H. (2006). Empirical parameterization of setup,swash, and runup. Coastal engineering, 53(7), 573-588.

Trends in Northern Hemisphere surface cyclone frequency and intensity

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCabe, G.J.; Clark, M.P.; Serreze, Mark C.

2001-01-01

One of the hypothesized effects of global warming from increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases is a change in the frequency and/or intensity of extratropical cyclones. In this study, winter frequencies and intensities of extratropical cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere for the period 1959-97 are examined to determine if identifiable trends are occurring. Results indicate a statistically significant decrease in midlatitude cyclone frequency and a significant increase in high-latitude cyclone frequency. In addition, storm intensity has increased in both the high and midlatitudes. The changes in storm frequency correlate with changes in winter Northern Hemisphere temperature and support hypotheses that global warming may result in a northward shift of storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere.

Observed near-surface flows under all tropical cyclone intensity levels using drifters in the northwestern Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, Yu-Chia; Chen, Guan-Yu; Tseng, Ruo-Shan; Centurioni, Luca R.; Chu, Peter C.

2013-05-01

Data from drifters of the surface velocity program and tropical cyclones (TCs) of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center during 1985-2009 were analyzed to demonstrate strong currents under various storm intensities such as category-4 to -5, category-2 to -3, and tropical storm to category-1 TCs in the northwestern Pacific. Current speeds over 2.0 m s-1 are observed under major TCs with the strongest mean currents to the right of the storm track. This study provides the characterization of the near-surface velocity response to all recorded TCs, and agrees roughly with Geisler's theory (1970). Our observations also verify earlier modeling results of Price (1983).

Episodic acidification of a coastal plain stream in Virginia

USGS Publications Warehouse

O'Brien, A. K.; Eshleman, K.N.

1996-01-01

This study investigates the episodic acidification of Reedy Creek, a wetland-influenced coastal plain stream near Richmond, Virginia. Primary objectives of the study were to quantify the episodic variability of acid- base chemistry in Reedy Creek, to examine the seasonal variability in episodic response and to explain the hydrological and geochemical factors that contribute to episodic acidification. Chemical response was similar in each of the seven storms examined, however, the ranges in concentrations observed were commonly greater in summer/fall storms than in winter/spring storms. An increase in SO4/2- concentration with discharge was observed during all storms and peak concentration occurred at or near peak flow. Small increases in Mg2+, Ca2+, K+ concentrations and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were observed during most storms. At the same time, ANC, Na+ and Cl- concentrations usually decreased with increasing discharge. In summer/fall storms, the absolute increase in SO4/2- concentration was one-third to 15 times the increase observed in winter/spring storms; the decrease in ANC during summer/fall storms was usually within the range of the decrease observed in winter/spring storms. In contrast, the decrease in Na+ and Cl- concentrations during winter/spring storms was much greater than that observed during summer/fall storms. Data show that while base flow anion deficit was higher in summer/fall than in winter/spring, anion deficit decreased during most summer/fall storms. In contrast, base flow anion deficit was lower in spring and winter, but increased during winter/spring storms. Increased SO4/2- concentration was the main cause of episodic acidification during storms at Reedy Creek, but increased anion deficit indicates organic acids may contribute to episodic acidification during winter/spring storms. Changes in SO4/2- concentration coincident with the hydrograph rise indicate quick routing of water through the watershed. Saturation overland flow appears to be the likely mechanism by which solutes are transported to the stream during storm flow.

The Impact of Upper Tropospheric Humidity from Microwave Limb Sounder on the Midlatitude Greenhouse Effect

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hu, Hua; Liu, W. Timothy

1998-01-01

This paper presents an analysis of upper tropospheric humidity, as measured by the Microwave Limb Sounder, and the impact of the humidity on the greenhouse effect in the midlatitudes. Enhanced upper tropospheric humidity and an enhanced greenhouse effect occur over the storm tracks in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. In these areas, strong baroclinic activity and the large number of deep convective clouds transport more water vapor to the upper troposphere, and hence increase greenhouse trapping. The greenhouse effect increases with upper tropospheric humidity in areas with a moist upper troposphere (such as areas over storm tracks), but it is not sensitive to changes in upper tropospheric humidity in regions with a dry upper troposphere, clearly demonstrating that there are different mechanisms controlling the geographical distribution of the greenhouse effect in the midlatitudes.

Investigation of the passage of a derecho in Belgium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamid, Karim

2012-04-01

From the 7th July, 2010 until 14th July, 2010, a heat wave dominated the weather in Belgium. Three major storm situations occurred during this period and all three caused severe damage. In this paper, we discuss the last storm case of 14th July. That day, a quasi-linear convective system (QLCS) crossed parts of France, Belgium and the Netherlands and caused very important wind damages and at least 2 people were killed. Most of the damage was caused by straight-line wind but at least one tornado was observed over the north of the Netherlands. This complex was induced in a very favorable synoptic configuration for severe weather and also the timing of the storm was favorable. In the frame of the Supercell project at the RMI, a damage survey was made of one of the most affected regions, which yielded useful information about the origin of the losses. Careful examination of the radar imagery revealed some connections between internal mesovortices and tracks of enhanced damage. As far as known, this paper is the first description of a derecho in Belgium. It is also the first time a connection is shown between some mesovortices and several damage tracks over the country. During the evolution of the QLCS, several examples of successive vortices were found in front of the system. Several of the vortices were accompanied by a tornado or a funnel cloud and the damage was typically concentrated along elongated tracks.

Analysis of the variability of extra-tropical cyclones at the regional scale for the coasts of Northern Germany and investigation of their coastal impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schaaf, Benjamin; Feser, Frauke

2015-04-01

The evaluation of long-term changes in wind speeds is very important for the coastal areas and the protection measures. Therefor the wind variability at the regional scale for the coast of Northern Germany shall be analysed. In order to derive changes in storminess it is essential to analyse long, homogeneous meteorological time series. Wind measurements often suffer from inconsistencies which arise from changes in instrumentation, observation method, or station location. Reanalysis data take into account such inhomogeneities of observation data and convert these measurements into a consistent, gridded data set with the same grid spacing and time intervals. This leads to a smooth, homogeneous data set, but with relatively low resolution (about 210 km for the longest reanalysis data set, the NCEP reanalysis starting in 1948). Therefore a high-resolution regional atmospheric model will be used to bring these reanalyses to a higher resolution, using in addition to a dynamical downscaling approach the spectral nudging technique. This method 'nudges' the large spatial scales of the regional climate model towards the reanalysis, while the smaller spatial scales are left unchanged. It was applied successfully in a number of applications, leading to realistic atmospheric weather descriptions of the past. With the regional climate model COSMO-CLM a very high-resolution data set was calculated for the last 67 years, the period from 1948 until now. The model area is North Germany with the coastal area of the North sea and parts of the Baltic sea. This is one of the first model simulations on climate scale with a very high resolution of 2.8 km, so even small scale effects can be detected. With this hindcast-simulation there are numerous options of evaluation. One can create wind climatologies for regional areas such as for the metropolitan region of Hamburg. Otherwise one can investigate individual storms in a case study. With a filtering and tracking program the course of individual storms can be tracked and compared with observations. Also statistical studies can be done and one can calculate percentiles, return periods and other different extreme value statistic variables. Later, with a further nesting simulation, the resolution can be reduced to 1 km for individual areas of interest to analyse small islands (as Foehr or Amrum) and their effects on the atmospheric flow more closely.

Extreme Storms. Chapter 9

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kossin, J. P.; Hall, T.; Knutson, T.; Kunkel, K. E.; Trapp, R. J.; Waliser, D. E.; Wehner, M. F.

2017-01-01

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Observations of the UTLS: An analysis of the double tropopause and its relationship to Rossby waves and the tropopause inversion layer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peevey, Tanya

The upper troposphere lower stratosphere (UTLS) is a region of minimum temperatures that contains the tropopause. As a transition region between the troposphere and the stratosphere, the UTLS contains various processes that facilitate stratosphere-troposphere exchange (STE) which can redistribute radiatively important species such as water vapor or ozone. One potential marker for STE is the double tropopause (DT). Therefore this study seeks to further understand how DTs form and how they could enhance the current understanding of some STE processes in the UTLS. Using data from the High Resolution Dynamic Limb Sounder (HIRDLS), a data set with high vertical and horizontal resolution, newly discovered DT structures are found over the Pacific and Atlantic oceans that suggest a relationship between the DT and both storm tracks and Rossby waves. The association between DTs and storm tracks is examined by further analyzing the recently discovered and unexpected relationship between the DT and the tropopause inversion layer (TIL) in a developing baroclinic disturbance. Results show an increase in the number of DTs when the lapse rate of the extratropical TIL is less than -2°C/km, i.e. when the TIL is stronger and the local stability is higher. Composites of ERA-Interim DT profiles for three different TIL strengths shows that the vertical motion and relative vorticity both decrease as the TIL increases, which suggests the warm conveyor belt as a mechanism. This is investigated further with a case study analysis of a developing extratropical cyclone in the Pacific Ocean. Additionally, an analysis of DTs in relation to the large scale flow responsible for storm development shows a strong correlation between monthly Rossby wave activity, ozone laminae and DT variability. Further examination shows that if these waves break a DT will be found with a wave breaking event about 30% of the time in the eastern Pacific and eastern Atlantic oceans, both regions of poleward wave breaking. These results highlight a new and more complicated DT structure that is a product of both large scale dynamics and small scale vertical motions, thus adding new information to the current understanding of the UTLS.

The Off-Season Operations of the Air Force Hurricane Office 1947-1948

DTIC Science & Technology

1948-07-01

order to keep oil and cylinder- h& d temperatures at a level sufficient to prevent engine failure. It is quite often necessary to lowr the landing...position where the winds are directly from the north end the course is then chenced to the southeast or perpendicular to the path cf desired...direction of approach in this method would be from the southeast , to establish a base lino paral- lel to the storm track, assuming that the storm

Significantly Increased Extreme Precipitation Expected in Europe and North America from Extratropical Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawcroft, M.; Hodges, K.; Walsh, E.; Zappa, G.

2017-12-01

For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, changes in circulation are key to determining the impacts of climate warming. The mechanisms governing these circulation changes are complex, leading to the well documented uncertainty in projections of the future location of the mid-latitude storm tracks simulated by climate models. These storms are the primary source of precipitation for North America and Europe and generate many of the large-scale precipitation extremes associated with flooding and severe economic loss. Here, we show that in spite of the uncertainty in circulation changes, by analysing the behaviour of the storms themselves, we find entirely consistent and robust projections across an ensemble of climate models. In particular, we find that projections of change in the most intensely precipitating storms (above the present day 99th percentile) in the Northern Hemisphere are substantial and consistent across models, with large increases in the frequency of both summer (June-August, +226±68%) and winter (December-February, +186±34%) extreme storms by the end of the century. Regionally, both North America (summer +202±129%, winter +232±135%) and Europe (summer +390±148%, winter +318±114%) are projected to experience large increases in the frequency of intensely precipitating storms. These changes are thermodynamic and driven by surface warming, rather than by changes in the dynamical behaviour of the storms. Such changes in storm behaviour have the potential to have major impacts on society given intensely precipitating storms are responsible for many large-scale flooding events.

Cyclone Nargis survey in Myanmar's Ayeyarwady River delta

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fritz, H. M.; Blount, C.; Thwin, S.; Thu, M. K.; Chan, N.

2008-12-01

Tropical cyclone Nargis (Cat. 4) made landfall on May 2, 2008, causing the worst natural disaster in Myanmar's recorded history. Official death toll estimates exceed 130,000 fatalities making it the 7th deadliest cyclone ever recorded worldwide. Nargis took a rare nearly eastern track over the Bay of Bengal while developing sustained winds over 210 km/h with gusts up to 260 km/h hours prior to landfall in Myanmar at untypically low latitude near 16°N. It then proceeded northeast and approximately 12 hours later weakened to a Category 1 storm with sustained wind speeds of 130 km/h as it passed over Yangon. The first independent storm surge reconnaissance team was deployed to Myanmar from 9 to 23 August 2008. Cyclone Nargis struck low-lying coastal plains particularly vulnerable to storm surge flooding due to the lack of effective barriers. The team surveyed coastal and inland villages from Pyapon to Purian Point, encompassing the Bogale and Ayeyarwady River mouths. The survey by boat spanned more than 150 km parallel to the cyclone track between Pyapon and Pyinkhayan encompassing 20 hardest hit settlements such as Pyinsalu. More than 1m vertical erosion and 150 m land loss were measured at various coastal locations such as Aya. Massive deforestation of mangroves and land use were documented. Maximum storm surge elevations and overland flow depths were measured based on water marks on buildings, scars on trees, and rafted debris. The storm surge peaked in the landfall area south of Pyinkhayan and eastwards in Pyinsalu exceeding 5m. Storm waves more than 2m high were superimposed on the storm surge level in most areas according to eyewitnesses. Inundation distances reached beyond 50 km inland. Catastrophic peak fatality rates exceeded 80% in hardest hit villages with the majority being children and women. The high water marks and fatality rates significantly exceeded corresponding 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami values at every location. Eyewitnesses were interviewed to document the time history of the event, survival strategies, cyclone awareness and evacuation. At the end of the 3 month relief operations survivors were left drinking from rice paddies with contaminated wells and no source of safe drinking water besides rain water. Storm surge simulations can be benchmarked against the measured cyclone Nargis storm surge and inundation to perform vulnerability analysis. Unfortunately, the widely deforested, low lying and densely populated Ayeyarwady delta remains extremely vulnerable to future storm surge flooding or potential sea level rise.

Climate variability, snow, and physiographic controls on storm hydro graphs in small forested basins, western Cascades, Oregon

Treesearch

Reed M. Perkins; Julia A. Jones

2008-01-01

Large floods are often attributed to the melting of snow during a rain event. This study tested how climate variability, snowpack presence, and basin physiography were related to storm hydrograph shape in three small (2) basins with old-growth forest in western Oregon. Relationships between hydrograph characteristics and precipitation...

Statistical Analysis of the Links between Blocking and Nor'easters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Booth, J. F.; Pfahl, S.

2015-12-01

Nor'easters can be loosely defined as extratropical cyclones that develop as they progress northward along the eastern coast of North America. The path makes it possible for these storms to generate storm surge along the coastline and/or heavy precipitation or snow inland. In the present analysis, the path of the storms is investigated relative to the behavior of upstream blocking events over the North Atlantic Ocean. For this analysis, two separate Lagrangian tracking methods are used to identify the extratropical cyclone paths and the blocking events. Using the cyclone paths, Nor'easters are identified and blocking statistics are calculated for the days prior to, during and following the occurrence of the Nor'easters. The path, strength and intensification rates of the cyclones are compared with the strength and location of the blocks. In the event that a Nor'easter occurs, the likelihood of the presence of block at the southeast tip of Greenland is statistically significantly increased, i.e., the presence of a block concurrent with a Nor'easter happens more often than by random coincidence. However no significant link between the strength of the storms and the strength of the block is identified. These results suggest that the presence of the block mainly affects the path of the Nor'easters. On the other hand, in the event of blocking at the southeast tip of Greenland, the likelihood of a Nor'easter, as opposed to a different type of storm is no greater than what one might expect from randomly sampling cyclone tracks. The results confirm a long held understanding in forecast meteorology that upstream blocking is a necessary but not sufficient condition for generating a Nor'easter.

Climatology of summer midtropospheric perturbations in the U.S. northern plains. Part I: Influence on northwest flow severe weather outbreaks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Shih-Yu; Chen, Tsing-Chang; Correia, James

Northwest flow severe weather outbreaks (NWF outbreaks) describe a type of summer convective storm that occurs in areas of mid-level NWF in the central United States. Convective storms associated with NWF outbreaks are often progressive (i.e. traveling a long distance) along systematic, northwestsoutheast oriented tracks throughout the northern plains. Previous studies have observed that progressive convective storms under NWF are often coupled with subsynoptic-scale midtropospheric perturbations (MPs) coming from the Rocky Mountains. This study traces such MPs for the decade of 1997-2006 using the North American Regional Reanalysis to examine their climatology and possible influence on NWF outbreaks. MPs initiatedmore » over the Rocky Mountains have a maximum frequency in July when the North American anticyclone fully develops and forms prevailing NWF over the northern plains. MPs developed under this anticyclone appear restricted in their vertical extension. Nevertheless, persistent upward motion is apparent in the leading edge (east) of MPs soon after their genesis subsequently inducing or intensifying convective storms. MPs propagate along systematic tracks similar to those of NWF outbreaks. The propagation of MPs also synchronizes with the progressive behavior of the associated convective storms. When encountering strong low-level jets (LLJs), upward motion and convergence of water vapor flux associated with MPs intensify substantially, resulting in strongly enhanced convection and precipitation. Convective wind and hail frequencies associated with MPs in strong LLJs reveal a pattern and magnitude very similar to that of NWF outbreaks. While about 60% of summer rainfall in the northern plains is linked to MPs, 75% of these instances occur in strong LLJs.« less

Klaus - an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. R. L.; Pinto, J. G.; Trigo, I. F.; Trigo, R. M.

2010-09-01

The synoptic evolution and impacts of storm Klaus that swept through northern Iberia and southern France on 23-24 January 2009, are assessed. Klaus followed an unusual southern path and was the costliest weather hazard event worldwide during 2009. In particular, it was the most intense and damaging wind storm in the region in a decade, provoked more than 20 casualties and insured losses of several billion Euros. Several long-term records of maximum wind speed gust were broken, including Bordeaux, Narbonne and Perpignan. Storm Klaus first developed close to the Bermudas, traveled fast eastwards and underwent explosive development near the Iberian Peninsula. Its development was supported by an extended and intensified polar jet which stretched down to Western Europe and strong upper-air divergence associated with a second jet streak. Afterwards, it steered southeastwards across Southern France into Northern Italy and the Adriatic. The evolution of "Klaus" is analysed using two standard cyclone detecting and tracking schemes. Results show that both tracks exhibited similar features and positions throughout almost all of their lifecycles, with minor minor discrepancies. These are likely associated to the fields used by each method for storm identification (near surface geopotential height and geostrophic vorticity, respectively) and to different handling of the spatio-temporal evolution of multiple cyclone candidates. In its strengthening phase, "Klaus" presents deepening rates above 37 hPa/24h, a value that after geostrophically adjusted to the reference latitude of 60°N increases to 44 hPa/24h, implying an exceptional event with bomb characteristics. During the maximum intensification phase, the laplacian of surface pressure increased by 1.165hPa/(deglat)2 within 24 hours.

1975 Annual Typhoon Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1995-01-01

southwest monsoon. Tropical Cyclone 24-75 formed just off the southwest tip of the Indian subcontinent. 3X tracked northwest and dissipated over water ...Tropical Cyclone 33-75 formed in late November and described an erratic track in the southwest portion of the Bay. The storm dissipated over water ...Leyte leaving 15 dead rains were spawned over the caused widespread flooding Choppy waters near capsized a crowded motorboat and 30 missing. FIGURE 4

Research on the impacts of past and future hurricanes on the endangered Florida manatee: Chapter 6J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

USGS Publications Warehouse

Langtimm, Catherine A.; Krohn, M. Dennis; Stith, Bradley M.; Reid, James P.; Beck, C.A.; Butler, Susan M.

2007-01-01

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research on Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) from 1982 through 1998 identified lower apparent survival rates for adult manatees during years when Hurricane Elena (1985), the March "Storm of the Century"(1993), and Hurricane Opal (1995) hit the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Although our analysis showed that a significant number of our monitored individual manatees failed to return to their winter homes after these storms, their actual fate remains unknown. With the aid of new satellite technology to track manatees during storms and new statistical techniques to determine survival and emigration rates, researchers are working to understand how hurricanes impact the endangered species by studying manatees caught in the path of the destructive hurricanes of 2004 and 2005.

Klaus, an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France - a comparison between storm diagnostics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Trigo, I. F.; Trigo, R. M.

2010-05-01

The synoptic evolution and dynamical characteristics of storm "Klaus" (23 and 24 January 2009) are analysed. "Klaus" was an extratropical cyclone which developed over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean on the 21st January 2009, then moved eastward embedded in the strong westerly flow and experienced a notorious strengthening on the 23rd January. The storm moved into the Bay of Biscay and deepened further before hitting Northern Spain and Southwestern France with gusts of up to 198 km/h. Afterwards, it steered southeastwards across Southern France into Northern Italy and the Adriatic. "Klaus" was the most intense and damaging wind storm in the region in a decade, provoked more than 20 casualties and insured losses of several billion Euros. The evolution of "Klaus" is analysed using two standard cyclone detecting and tracking schemes: a) the vorticity maxima based algorithm originally developed by Murray and Simmonds [1991], adapted for Northern Hemisphere cyclone characteristics [Pinto et al. 2005]; and b) the pressure minima based algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region [Trigo et al. 1999; 2002] and later extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region [Trigo 2006]. Additionally, the synoptic and mesoscale features of the storm are analysed. The vorticity based method detects the storm earlier than the pressure minima one. Results show that both tracks exhibited similar features and positions throughout almost all of their lifecycles, with minor discrepancies being probably related to different ways of both methods handling the spatio-temporal evolution of multiple candidates for cyclonic centres. In its strengthening phase, "Klaus" presents deepening rates above 37 hPa/24h, a value that after geostrophically adjusted to the reference latitude of 60°N increases to 44 hPa/24h, implying an exceptional event with bomb characteristics. During maximum intensity change within 24 hours was 1.165hPa/(deglat)2. References: Murray RJ, Simmonds I (1991) Aust. Meteorol. Mag., 39, 155-166. Pinto JG et al (2005) Meteorol. Z., 14, 823-838. Trigo IF et al (1999) J. Climate, 12, 1685-1696. Trigo IF et al (2002) Mon. Weather Rev. 130, 549-569. Trigo IF (2006) Clim. Dyn., 26, 127-143.

Relationships between convective storms and their environment in AVE IV determined from a three-dimensional subsynoptic-scale, trajectory model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, G. S.

1977-01-01

The paper describes interrelationships between synoptic-scale and convective-scale systems obtained by following individual air parcels as they traveled within the convective storm environment of AVE IV. (NASA's fourth Atmospheric Variability Experiment, AVE IV, was a 36-hour study in April 1975 of the atmospheric variability and structure in regions of convective storms.) A three-dimensional trajectory model was used to calculate parcel paths, and manually digitized radar was employed to locate convective activity of various intensities and to determine those trajectories that traversed the storm environment. Spatial and temporal interrelationships are demonstrated by reference to selected time periods of AVE IV which contain the development and movement of the squall line in which the Neosho tornado was created.

Interannual Similarity in the Martian Atmosphere During the Dust Storm Season

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kass, D. M.; Kleinboehl, A.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Smith, M. D.

2016-01-01

We find that during the dusty season on Mars (southern spring and summer) of years without a global dust storm there are three large regional-scale dust storms. The storms are labeled A, B, and C in seasonal order. This classification is based on examining the zonal mean 50 Pa (approximately 25 km) daytime temperature retrievals from TES/MGS and MCS/MRO over 6 Mars Years. Regional-scale storms are defined as events where the temperature exceeds 200 K. Examining the MCS dust field at 50 Pa indicates that warming in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by direct heating, while northern high latitude warming is a dynamical response. A storms are springtime planet encircling Southern Hemisphere events. B storms are southern polar events that begin near perihelion and last through the solstice. C storms are southern summertime events starting well after the end of the B storm. C storms show the most interannual variability.

Interannual similarity in the Martian atmosphere during the dust storm season

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kass, D. M.; Kleinböhl, A.; McCleese, D. J.; Schofield, J. T.; Smith, M. D.

2016-06-01

We find that during the dusty season on Mars (southern spring and summer) of years without a global dust storm there are three large regional-scale dust storms. The storms are labeled A, B, and C in seasonal order. This classification is based on examining the zonal mean 50 Pa (˜25 km) daytime temperature retrievals from TES/MGS and MCS/MRO over 6 Mars Years. Regional-scale storms are defined as events where the temperature exceeds 200 K. Examining the MCS dust field at 50 Pa indicates that warming in the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by direct heating, while northern high latitude warming is a dynamical response. A storms are springtime planet encircling Southern Hemisphere events. B storms are southern polar events that begin near perihelion and last through the solstice. C storms are southern summertime events starting well after the end of the B storm. C storms show the most interannual variability.

Exploring Statistical Characterizations of Morphologic Change and Variability: Fire Island, New York

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lentz, E. E.; Hapke, C. J.

2012-12-01

A comprehensive understanding of coastal barrier behavior requires high-resolution observations that capture a wide range of morphological changes occurring over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Fire Island National Seashore, located along the coast of Long Island, New York, is a well studied barrier island coast where understanding how morphological changes contribute to barrier island vulnerability have important implications for coastal land management. Previous work has shown that morphologic differences in eastern and western reaches are attributable to the underlying geology and variations sediment transport in the system. In this study, we further explore western and eastern differences and variability with lidar-derived topographic surfaces to provide a unique and comprehensive investigation of dune-beach change at Fire Island, New York. Continuous topographic surfaces generated from 12 lidar surveys collected between 1998 and 2011 are used to examine the three-dimensional variability over a range of time periods over the 50 km long island. Because surveys were collected over a range of seasons and in response to a number of storm events, we explore morphologic configurations reflecting the seasonality, post-storm configuration, and replenishment response to the system through the generation of a representative or average surface. These averaged surfaces provide the context for what would be an expected or typical coastal configuration under certain conditions, and through comparison with an individual event, can be used to derive an event-specific spatial-change signature. To investigate anthropogenic influences, differences in morphology between a survey collected after a substantial beach replenishment project and a typical fair-weather configuration averaged from six surveys are determined. Storm response variations are also explored by assessing differences between Tropical Storm Irene (2011), Nor'Ida (2009), and a typical post-storm configuration averaged from five post-storm surveys. In addition to averaged surfaces, surveys are combined to generate a new raster surface reflecting cell by cell standard deviations over a defined period. Standard deviation surfaces are generated to highlight 1) where areas of highest and lowest morphologic variation are located over the entire period, and 2) whether spatial similarities exist in variability between storm and non-storm morphologies. Results show there are distinct and variable responses in eastern and western reaches attributable to wave climate, profile gradient, and offshore bathymetry, as well as to a general along-coast increase in sediment availability.

Hourly storm characteristics along the U.S. West Coast: Role of atmospheric rivers in extreme precipitation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lamjiri, Maryam A.; Dettinger, Michael; Ralph, F. Martin; Guan, B.

2017-01-01

Gridded hourly precipitation observations over the conterminous U.S., from 1948 to 2002, are analyzed to determine climatological characteristics of storm precipitation totals. Despite generally lower hourly intensities, precipitation totals along the U.S. West Coast (USWC) are comparable to those in southeast U.S. (SEUS). Storm durations, more so than hourly intensities, strongly modulate precipitation-total variability over the USWC, where the correlation coefficients between storm durations and storm totals range from 0.7 to 0.9. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) contribute 30–50% of annual precipitation on the USWC and make such large contributions to extreme storms that 60–100% of the most extreme storms, i.e., storms with precipitation-total return intervals longer than 2 years, are associated with ARs. These extreme storm totals are more strongly tied to storm durations than to storm hourly or average intensities, emphasizing the importance of AR persistence to extreme storms on the USWC.

Multiple Convective Cell Identification and Tracking Algorithm for documenting time-height evolution of measured polarimetric radar and lightning properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosenfeld, D.; Hu, J.; Zhang, P.; Snyder, J.; Orville, R. E.; Ryzhkov, A.; Zrnic, D.; Williams, E.; Zhang, R.

2017-12-01

A methodology to track the evolution of the hydrometeors and electrification of convective cells is presented and applied to various convective clouds from warm showers to super-cells. The input radar data are obtained from the polarimetric NEXRAD weather radars, The information on cloud electrification is obtained from Lightning Mapping Arrays (LMA). The development time and height of the hydrometeors and electrification requires tracking the evolution and lifecycle of convective cells. A new methodology for Multi-Cell Identification and Tracking (MCIT) is presented in this study. This new algorithm is applied to time series of radar volume scans. A cell is defined as a local maximum in the Vertical Integrated Liquid (VIL), and the echo area is divided between cells using a watershed algorithm. The tracking of the cells between radar volume scans is done by identifying the two cells in consecutive radar scans that have maximum common VIL. The vertical profile of the polarimetric radar properties are used for constructing the time-height cross section of the cell properties around the peak reflectivity as a function of height. The LMA sources that occur within the cell area are integrated as a function of height as well for each time step, as determined by the radar volume scans. The result of the tracking can provide insights to the evolution of storms, hydrometer types, precipitation initiation and cloud electrification under different thermodynamic, aerosol and geographic conditions. The details of the MCIT algorithm, its products and their performance for different types of storm are described in this poster.

Factors influencing storm-generated suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in four basins of contrasting land use, humid-tropical Puerto Rico

Treesearch

A. C. Gellis; NO-VALUE

2013-01-01

The significant characteristics controlling the variability in storm-generated suspended-sediment loads and concentrations were analyzed for four basins of differing land use (forest, pasture, cropland, and urbanizing) in humid-tropical Puerto Rico. Statistical analysis involved stepwise regression on factor scores. The explanatory variables were attributes of flow,...

Interbasin Differences in the Relationship between SST and Tropical Cyclone Intensification

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Foltz, Gregory R.; Balaguru, Karthik; Hagos, Samson

Sea surface temperature (SST) is one of the most important parameters for tropical cyclone (TC) intensification. Here it is shown that the impact of SST on TC intensification varies considerably from basin to basin, with SST explaining less than 3% of the variance in TC intensification rates in the Atlantic, 10% in the western North Pacific, and 17% in the eastern Pacific. Two main factors are shown to be responsible for these inter-basin differences. First, variability of SST along TCs’ tracks is considerably lower in the Atlantic. This is due to smaller horizontal SST gradients in the Atlantic compared tomore » the eastern Pacific and stronger damping of pre-storm SST’s contribution to TC intensification by the storm-induced cold SST wake in the Atlantic. The damping occurs because SST tends to vary in phase with TC- induced SST cooling: in the Gulf of Mexico and northwestern basin where SSTs are highest, TCs’ translation speeds are lowest and therefore their cold wakes are strongest. In addition to this SST effect, a second factor is that SST tends to vary out of phase with vertical wind shear and outflow temperature in the western Pacific, with high SST associated with weak wind shear and a cold upper troposphere. This strengthens the relationship between SST and TC intensification more in the western Pacific than in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic. Combined, these factors explain why pre-storm SST is such a poor predictor of TC intensification in the Atlantic compared to the eastern and western North Pacific.« less

A regional ocean model for the Southwest Pacific Ocean region to assess the risk of storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Natoo, N.; Paul, A.; Hadfield, M.; Jendersie, S.; Bornman, J.; de Lange, W.; Ye, W.; Schulz, M.

2012-04-01

New Zealand's coasts are not only affected by mid-latitude storms, but infrequently also by storms that originate from the tropics. Projections for the southern hemisphere's southwest Pacific island countries for the 21st century show a poleward shift of the mid-latitude storm tracks, which consequently might result in changes in wind, precipitation and temperature patterns. Furthermore, an increase in frequency of intense storms is expected for the New Zealand region, which will very likely increase the risk of storm surges and flooding of coastal and low-lying regions. We employ the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) to assess the changes in the storm climate of the New Zealand region. The model set-up uses a resolution of ~50 km for the Southwest Pacific Ocean "parent domain" and ~10 km for the New Zealand "child domain", to well represent the major eddies that influence the climate of North Island. With the aim to later utilize this nested ocean model set-up as part of a coupled ocean-atmosphere modelling system for the Southwest Pacific Ocean region, results for the 20th century will be presented. The simulated circulation is shown to be largely consistent with the observed regional oceanography.

ScienceCast 135: Follow the Water

NASA Image and Video Library

2014-02-21

NASA and JAXA launched a new satellite that can see through storms, tracking rain and snow around the globe better than any previous observatory. The Global Precipitation Measurement Core Observatory lifted off from Japan on Feb. 27th

Satellite Observations of Stratospheric Gravity Waves Associated With the Intensification of Tropical Cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoffmann, Lars; Wu, Xue; Alexander, M. Joan

2018-02-01

Forecasting the intensity of tropical cyclones is a challenging problem. Rapid intensification is often preceded by the formation of "hot towers" near the eyewall. Driven by strong release of latent heat, hot towers are high-reaching tropical cumulonimbus clouds that penetrate the tropopause. Hot towers are a potentially important source of stratospheric gravity waves. Using 13.5 years (2002-2016) of Atmospheric Infrared Sounder observations of stratospheric gravity waves and tropical cyclone data from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, we found empirical evidence that stratospheric gravity wave activity is associated with the intensification of tropical cyclones. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder and International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship data showed that strong gravity wave events occurred about twice as often for tropical cyclone intensification compared to storm weakening. Observations of stratospheric gravity waves, which are not affected by obscuring tropospheric clouds, may become an important future indicator of storm intensification.

The Impact of Parameterized Convection on Climatological Precipitation in Atmospheric Global Climate Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, Penelope; Vallis, Geoffrey K.; Sherwood, Steven C.; Webb, Mark J.; Sansom, Philip G.

2018-04-01

Convective parameterizations are widely believed to be essential for realistic simulations of the atmosphere. However, their deficiencies also result in model biases. The role of convection schemes in modern atmospheric models is examined using Selected Process On/Off Klima Intercomparison Experiment simulations without parameterized convection and forced with observed sea surface temperatures. Convection schemes are not required for reasonable climatological precipitation. However, they are essential for reasonable daily precipitation and constraining extreme daily precipitation that otherwise develops. Systematic effects on lapse rate and humidity are likewise modest compared with the intermodel spread. Without parameterized convection Kelvin waves are more realistic. An unexpectedly large moist Southern Hemisphere storm track bias is identified. This storm track bias persists without convection schemes, as does the double Intertropical Convergence Zone and excessive ocean precipitation biases. This suggests that model biases originate from processes other than convection or that convection schemes are missing key processes.

Multi-year microbial source tracking study characterizing fecal contamination in an urban watershed

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bushon, Rebecca N.; Brady, Amie M. G.; Christensen, Eric D.; Stelzer, Erin A.

2017-01-01

Microbiological and hydrological data were used to rank tributary stream contributions of bacteria to the Little Blue River in Independence, Missouri. Concentrations, loadings and yields of E. coli and microbial source tracking (MST) markers, were characterized during base flow and storm events in five subbasins within Independence, as well as sources entering and leaving the city through the river. The E. coli water quality threshold was exceeded in 29% of base-flow and 89% of storm-event samples. The total contribution of E. coli and MST markers from tributaries within Independence to the Little Blue River, regardless of streamflow, did not significantly increase the median concentrations leaving the city. Daily loads and yields of E. coli and MST markers were used to rank the subbasins according to their contribution of each constituent to the river. The ranking methodology used in this study may prove useful in prioritizing remediation in the different subbasins.

Regulation of autonomic nervous system in space and magnetic storms.

PubMed

Baevsky, R M; Petrov, V M; Chernikova, A G

1998-01-01

Variations in the earth's magnetic field and magnetic storms are known to be a risk factor for the development of cardiovascular disorders. The main "targets" for geomagnetic perturbations are the central nervous system and the neural regulation of vascular tone and heart rate variability. This paper presents the data about effect of geomagnetic fluctuations on human body in space. As a method for research the analysis of heart rate variability was used, which allows evaluating the state of the sympathetic and parasympathetic parts of the autonomic nervous system, vasomotor center and subcortical neural centers activity. Heart rate variability data were analyzed for 30 cosmonauts at the 2nd day of space flight on transport spaceship Soyuz (32nd orbit). There were formed three groups of cosmonauts: without magnetic storm (n=9), on a day with magnetic storm (n=12) and 1-2 days after magnetic storm (n=9). The present study was the first to demonstrate a specific impact of geomagnetic perturbations on the system of autonomic circulatory control in cosmonauts during space flight. The increasing of highest nervous centers activity was shown for group with magnetic storms, which was more significant on 1-2 days after magnetic storm. The use of discriminate analysis allowed to classify indicated three groups with 88% precision. Canonical variables are suggested to be used as criterions for evaluation of specific and non-specific components of cardiovascular reactions to geomagnetic perturbations. The applied aspect of the findings from the present study should be emphasized. They show, in particular, the need to supplement the medical monitoring of cosmonauts with predictions of probable geomagnetic perturbations in view of the prevention of unfavorable states appearances if the adverse reactions to geomagnetic perturbations are added to the tension experienced by regulatory systems during various stresses situations (such as work in the open space).

Storm Surge Simulation and Ensemble Forecast for Hurricane Irene (2011)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, N.; Emanuel, K.

2012-12-01

Hurricane Irene, raking the U.S. East Coast during the period of 26-30 August 2011, caused widespread damage estimated at $15.8 billion and was responsible for 49 direct deaths (Avila and Cangialosi, 2011). Although the most severe impact in the northeastern U.S. was catastrophic inland flooding, with its unusually large size, Irene also generated high waves and storm surges and caused moderate to major coastal flooding. The most severe surge damage occurred between Oregon Inlet and Cape Hatteras in North Carolina (NC). Significant storm surge damage also occurred along southern Chesapeake Bay, and moderate and high surges were observed along the coast from New Jersey (NJ) northward. A storm surge of 0.9-1.8 m caused hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage in New York City (NYC) and Long Island, despite the fact that the storm made landfall to the west of NYC with peak winds of no more than tropical storm strength. Making three U.S. landfalls (in NC, NJ, and NY), Hurricane Irene provides a unique case for studying storm surge along the eastern U.S. coastline. We apply the hydrodynamic model ADCIRC (Luettich et al. 1992) to conduct surge simulations for Pamlico Sound, Chesapeake Bay, and NYC, using best track data and parametric wind and pressure models. The results agree well with tidal-gauge observations. Then we explore a new methodology for storm surge ensemble forecasting and apply it to Irene. This method applies a statistical/deterministic hurricane model (Emanuel et al. 2006) to generate large numbers of storm ensembles under the storm environment described by the 51 ECMWF ensemble members. The associated surge ensembles are then generated with the ADCIRC model. The numerical simulation is computationally efficient, making the method applicable to real-time storm surge ensemble forecasting. We report the results for NYC in this presentation. The ADCIRC simulation using the best track data generates a storm surge of 1.3 m and a storm tide of 2.1 m at the Battery, NYC, which agree well with the observed storm surge of 1.33 m and storm tide of 2.12 m, although the simulated surge arrives about 2 hours earlier than the observed. Based on the surge climatology estimated by Lin et al. (2012), Hurricane Irene's storm surge is approximately a 60-year event for NYC, but its storm tide, with the surge happening right at the high astronomical tide, is a 100-year event. Lin et al. (2012) also projected that such 100-year storm tide events might occur on average every 3-20 years by the end of the century, under the IPCC A1B emission scenario and a 1-m sea level rise. The ensemble forecasting, starting from two and one days (each with 1000 ensembles) before Irene's first landfall in NC, shows that Irene's actual storm surge at the Battery had a chance of about 9% and 10% to be exceeded, respectively. The largest surges among the two ensemble sets are 2.28 m and 2.05 m, respectively. If happening at the high tide, as with Hurricane Irene, the worst-case storm tides would be about 3-3.2 m, similar to the highest historical water level at the Battery due to a hurricane in 1821. Lin et al. (2012) estimated that such a storm tide of about 3.1 m had a return period of about 500 years under current climate conditions, but the return period might become 25-240 years by the end of the century, under the IPCC A1B emission scenario and a 1-m sea level rise.

The Importance of Hurricane Research to Life, Property, the Economy, and National Security.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Busalacchi, A. J.

2017-12-01

The devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season has brought into stark relief how much hurricane forecasts have improved - and how important it is to make them even better. Whereas the error in 48-hour track forecasts has been reduced by more than half, according to the National Hurricane Center, intensity forecasts remain challenging, especially with storms such as Harvey that strengthened from a tropical depression to a Category 4 hurricane in less than three days. The unusually active season, with Hurricane Irma sustaining 185-mph winds for a record 36 hours and two Atlantic hurricanes reaching 150-mph winds simultaneously for the first time, also highlighted what we do, and do not, know about how tropical cyclones will change as the climate warms. The extraordinary toll of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria - which may ultimately be responsible for hundreds of deaths and an estimated $200 billion or more in damages - underscores why investments into improved forecasting must be a national priority. At NCAR and UCAR, scientists are working with their colleagues at federal agencies, the private sector, and the university community to advance our understanding of these deadly storms. Among their many projects, NCAR researchers are making experimental tropical cyclone forecasts using an innovative Earth system model that allows for variable resolution. We are working with NOAA to issue flooding, inundation, and streamflow forecasts for areas hit by hurricanes, and we have used extremely high-resolution regional models to simulate successfully the rapid hurricane intensification that has proved so difficult to predict. We are assessing ways to better predict the damage potential of tropical cyclones by looking beyond wind speed to consider such important factors as the size and forward motion of the storm. On the important question of climate change, scientists have experimented with running coupled climate models at a high enough resolution to spin up a hurricane, and we have used a convection-permitting regional model to examine how named storms of the past might look if they were to formed in a warmer, wetter future. Finally, research is also being performed to better communicate forecasts to help residents make informed choices when a damaging storm approaches.

Effects Of Spatial Variability In Marshes On Coastal Erosion Under Storm Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lunghino, B.; Suckale, J.; Fringer, O. B.; Maldonado, S.; Ferreira, C.; Marras, S.; Mandel, T.

2016-12-01

To quantify the contribution of marshes in protecting coastlines, engineers and planners need to evaluate how variability in marsh characteristics and storm conditions affect erosion in the inundation zone. Previous studies show that spatial patterns in marshes significantly affect flow and sediment transport under normal tidal conditions [1, 2]. This study investigates the effect of spatial variability on floodplain sediment transport under a range of extreme hydrodynamic conditions that occur during storm events. We model the hydrodynamics of storm surge conditions on an idealized coastal floodplain by solving the 2D shallow water equations. We approximate the effect of vegetation on hydrodynamics as a constant drag coefficient. The model calculates suspended sediment transport with the advection-diffusion equation and updates morphology with erosional and depositional fluxes. We conduct numerical experiments in which we vary both the scale of the storm event and the spatial patterns of vegetation and evaluate the impact on erosion and deposition on the floodplain. We find that the alongshore extent of the vegetation is the primary control on the net volume of sediment eroded. Scour occurs in narrow channels between vegetated areas, but this does not significantly alter the net volume of sediment transported. Deposition occurs in vegetated areas under the full range of flow velocities we test. These results suggest that resolving all variability in vegetation is not necessary to quantify net sediment transport volumes at the floodplain scale. Increasing the scale of the storm event does not alter the role of spatial variability. References [1] Meire, D. W., Kondziolka, J. M., and Nepf, H. M. Interaction between neighboring vegetation patches: Impact on flow and deposition. Water Resources Research 50, 5 (2014), 3809-3825. [2] Temmerman, S., Bouma, T., Govers, G., Wang, Z., De Vries, M., and Her- man, P. Impact of vegetation on flow routing and sedimentation patterns: Three-dimensional modeling for a tidal marsh. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface 110, F4 (2005).

Shifts in biomass and productivity for a subtropical dry forest in response to simulated elevated hurricane disturbances

Treesearch

Jennifer A Holm; Skip J Van Bloem; Guy R Larocque; Herman H Shugart

2017-01-01

Caribbean tropical forests are subject to hurricane disturbances of great variability. In addition to natural storm incongruity, climate change can alter storm formation, duration, frequency, and intensity. This model-based investigation assessed the impacts of multiple storms of different intensities and occurrence frequencies on the long-term dynamics of subtropical...

How spatial and temporal rainfall variability affect runoff across basin scales: insights from field observations in the (semi-)urbanised Charlotte watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ten Veldhuis, M. C.; Smith, J. A.; Zhou, Z.

2017-12-01

Impacts of rainfall variability on runoff response are highly scale-dependent. Sensitivity analyses based on hydrological model simulations have shown that impacts are likely to depend on combinations of storm type, basin versus storm scale, temporal versus spatial rainfall variability. So far, few of these conclusions have been confirmed on observational grounds, since high quality datasets of spatially variable rainfall and runoff over prolonged periods are rare. Here we investigate relationships between rainfall variability and runoff response based on 30 years of radar-rainfall datasets and flow measurements for 16 hydrological basins ranging from 7 to 111 km2. Basins vary not only in scale, but also in their degree of urbanisation. We investigated temporal and spatial variability characteristics of rainfall fields across a range of spatial and temporal scales to identify main drivers for variability in runoff response. We identified 3 ranges of basin size with different temporal versus spatial rainfall variability characteristics. Total rainfall volume proved to be the dominant agent determining runoff response at all basin scales, independent of their degree of urbanisation. Peak rainfall intensity and storm core volume are of secondary importance. This applies to all runoff parameters, including runoff volume, runoff peak, volume-to-peak and lag time. Position and movement of the storm with respect to the basin have a negligible influence on runoff response, with the exception of lag times in some of the larger basins. This highlights the importance of accuracy in rainfall estimation: getting the position right but the volume wrong will inevitably lead to large errors in runoff prediction. Our study helps to identify conditions where rainfall variability matters for correct estimation of the rainfall volume as well as the associated runoff response.

Frequency-dependent behavior of the barotropic and baroclinic modes of zonal jet variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sheshadri, A.; Plumb, R. A.

2016-12-01

Stratosphere-troposphere interactions are frequently described in terms of the leading modes of variability, i.e. the annular modes. An idealized dynamical core model is used to explore the differences between the low- and high- frequency (periods greater and less than 30 days) behavior of the first two principal components of zonal mean zonal wind and eddy kinetic energy, i.e., the barotropic/baroclinic annular modes of variability of the extratropical circulation. The modes show similar spatial characteristics in the different frequency ranges considered, however the ranking of the modes switches in some cases from one range to the other. There is some cancelation in the signatures of eddy heat flux and eddy kinetic energy in the leading low-pass and high-pass filtered zonal wind mode, partly explaining their small signature in the total. At low frequencies, the first zonal wind mode describes latitudinal shifts of both the midlatitude jet and its associated storm tracks, and the persistence of zonal wind anomalies appears to be sustained primarily by a baroclinic, rather than a barotropic, feedback. On shorter time scales, the behavior is more complicated and transient.

Nonlinear dynamics of global atmospheric and Earth-system processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saltzman, Barry; Ebisuzaki, Wesley; Maasch, Kirk A.; Oglesby, Robert; Pandolfo, Lionel

1991-01-01

General Circulation Model (GCM) studies of the atmospheric response to change boundary conditions are discussed. Results are reported on an extensive series of numerical studies based on the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM) general circulation model. In these studies the authors determined the response to systematic changes in atmospheric CO2 ranging from 100 to 1000 ppm; to changes in the prescribed sea surface temperature (SST) in the Gulf of Mexico, such as occurred during the deglaciation phase of the last ice age; to changes in soil moisture over North America; and to changes in sea ice extent in the Southern Hemisphere. Study results show that the response of surface temperature and other variables is nearly logarithmic, with lower levels of CO2 implying greater sensitivity of the atmospheric state to changes in CO2. It was found that the surface temperature of the Gulf of Mexico exerts considerable control over the storm track and behavior of storm systems over the North Atlantic through its influence on evaporation and the source of latent heat. It was found that reductions in soil moisture can play a significant role in amplifying and maintaining North American drought, particularly when a negative soil moisture anomaly prevails late in the spring.

Short-period variability in terrestrial water storage from GNSS observations of Earth surface deformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borsa, A. A.; Adusumilli, S.; Agnew, D. C.; Silverii, F.; Small, E. E.

2017-12-01

Modern geodetic observations of Earth surface deformation, initially targeted at processes such as tectonics and volcanism, also record the subtle signature of mass movements within Earth's atmosphere and hydrosphere. These observations, which track the elastic response of the solid earth to changing surface mass loads, are clearly evident in position time series from permanent Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations, which recent work has used to recover changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) over seasonal and multi-annual time scales. Earth's elastic reponse is nearly instantaneous, which suggests the possibility of observing TWS changes at much shorter periods, limited only by the 24 hour resolution of standard GNSS data products and noise in the GNSS position estimates. We present results showing that TWS increases from individual storms can be recovered using the GNSS network in the United States, and that the water mass changes are similar to gridded precipitation estimates from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The gradual decline we observe in TWS following each storm is diagnostic of runoff and local evapotranspiration, and varies by location. By greatly increasing the temporal resolution of GNSS-derived estimates of TWS, we hope to provide constraints on integrated water fluxes from hydrological models on all relevant timescales.

Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, Judd; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Francia Mungcal, Ma. Theresa; Gonzalo, Lia Anne; Dasallas, Lea; Briones, Jo Brianne Louise; Santiago, Joy; Suarez, John Kenneth; Lapidez, John Phillip; Caro, Carl Vincent; Ladiero, Christine; Malano, Vicente

2014-05-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 08 November 2013 where more than 6,000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10-minute intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter-measures for a given PSWS.

Developing an early warning system for storm surge inundation in the Philippines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

2014-10-01

A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water generated by an approaching storm, over and above the astronomical tides. This event imposes a major threat in the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013 where more than 6000 people lost their lives. It has become evident that the need to develop an early warning system for storm surges is of utmost importance. To provide forecasts of the possible storm surge heights of an approaching typhoon, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. Bathymetric data, storm track, central atmospheric pressure, and maximum wind speed were used as parameters for the Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge Model. The researchers calculated the frequency distribution of maximum storm surge heights of all typhoons under a specific Public Storm Warning Signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of probable area inundation and flood levels of storm surges along coastal areas for a specific PSWS using the results of the frequency distribution. These maps were developed from the time series data of the storm tide at 10 min intervals of all observation points in the Philippines. This information will be beneficial in developing early warnings systems, static maps, disaster mitigation and preparedness plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline defense efforts, and coastal protection measures. Moreover, these will support the local government units' mandate to raise public awareness, disseminate information about storm surge hazards, and implement appropriate counter-measures for a given PSWS.

Seasonal variability of stream water quality response to storm events captured using high-frequency and multi-parameter data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fovet, O.; Humbert, G.; Dupas, R.; Gascuel-Odoux, C.; Gruau, G.; Jaffrezic, A.; Thelusma, G.; Faucheux, M.; Gilliet, N.; Hamon, Y.; Grimaldi, C.

2018-04-01

The response of stream chemistry to storm is of major interest for understanding the export of dissolved and particulate species from catchments. The related challenge is the identification of active hydrological flow paths during these events and of the sources of chemical elements for which these events are hot moments of exports. An original four-year data set that combines high frequency records of stream flow, turbidity, nitrate and dissolved organic carbon concentrations, and piezometric levels was used to characterize storm responses in a headwater agricultural catchment. The data set was used to test to which extend the shallow groundwater was impacting the variability of storm responses. A total of 177 events were described using a set of quantitative and functional descriptors related to precipitation, stream and groundwater pre-event status and event dynamics, and to the relative dynamics between water quality parameters and flow via hysteresis indices. This approach led to identify different types of response for each water quality parameter which occurrence can be quantified and related to the seasonal functioning of the catchment. This study demonstrates that high-frequency records of water quality are precious tools to study/unique in their ability to emphasize the variability of catchment storm responses.

Headwater Nutrient Concentration Patterns in Response to Storm Events Across Land Use Types using In Situ Sensors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Price, A.; Wollheim, W. M.; Mulukutla, G. K.; Carey, R. O.; McDowell, W. H.

2012-12-01

Understanding the aquatic biogeochemical impacts of land use change and climate variability will require improved understanding of nutrient variability over temporal scales ranging from storms to seasons. New in situ sensor technology offers the prospect of efficient nutrient measurements over multiple time scales. We quantified nutrient flux patterns in response to storm events across seasons using in situ nutrient sensors deployed in headwater streams draining three land use types (forest, suburban, and agriculture) within the Lamprey River watershed, New Hampshire, between April-December 2012. We utilized two sensor suites, each consisting of a Satlantic Submersible Ultraviolet Nitrate Analyzer (NO3-N), Turner Designs C6 Multi-Sensor Platform (CDOM, Turbidity, Chl), Hydrolab MS5 (Dissolved Oxygen, pH), WET Labs Cycle P (PO4-P), and Hobo Water Level & Conductivity meters. Preliminary spring/summer comparisons at the suburban site suggest increased baseflow nitrate concentrations and decreased diurnal nitrate variability (~0.05 vs. 0.035 mg/L daily fluctuation) following leaf emergence in spring. Nitrate concentrations were diluted during storms. Hysteresis was evident, suggesting groundwater nitrate sources attributable to septic systems were diluted by surface runoff during spring storms. The agricultural stream showed similar but more extreme patterns of increasing baseflow nitrate during the summer (~2.4 to 4.1 mg/L) and dilution during storms. The compilation of a high-frequency dataset for headwater streams across seasons and land-use types will provide valuable insight into complex land use/water quality relationships in urbanizing watersheds.

Observed Near-Surface Currents Four Super Typhoons

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-07-16

floats under category-4 hur- ricane Frances 2004 (D’Asaro et al., 2007 ; Sanford et al., 2011). Maximum current velocities of 2.0 m s−1 and 1.7 m s−1...Teague et al., 2007 ). The observed maximum current velocities and the storm’s track in the earlier studies are listed in Table 1. In addition to current...2011) 1.5 Ivan (2004), Gulf of Mexico Category-4 5.8 ADCP 15 6 Teague et al. ( 2007 ) 2.1 Harvey (2005), Atlantic Tropical storm 6.3 ADCP 5 18 Black

TES mapping of Mars' north seasonal cap

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kieffer, H.H.; Titus, T.N.

2001-01-01

The Mars Global Surveyor thermal emission spectrometer has made observations of Mars' north polar region for nearly a full martian year. Measurements of bolometric emission and reflectance, as well as brightness temperatures in specific bands synthesized from thermal radiance spectra, are used to track the behavior of surface and atmospheric temperatures, the distribution of condensed CO2 and H2O, and the occurrence of dust storms. CO2 grain size in the polar night is variable in space and time, and is influenced by atmospheric conditions. Some specific locations display concentration of H2O frost and indicate the presence of long-term water-ice near the surface. Annual budgets of solid CO2 range up to 1500 kg m-2; preliminary analysis suggests significant transport of energy into latitudes near 70?? N during the polar night. ?? 2001 Elsevier Science.

Why do Tornados and Hail Storms Rest on Weekends?

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rosenfeld, Daniel; Bell, Thomas L.

2010-01-01

When anthropogenic aerosols over the eastern USA during summertime are at their weekly mid-week peak, tornado and hail storm activity there is also near its weekly maximum. The weekly cycle in storm activity is statistically significant and unlikely to be due to natural variability. The pattern of variability supports the hypothesis that air pollution aerosols invigorate deep convective clouds in a moist, unstable atmosphere, to the extent of inducing production of large hailstones and tornados. This is caused by the effect of aerosols on cloud-drop nucleation, making cloud drops smaller, delaying precipitation-forming processes and their evaporation, and hence affecting cloud dynamics.

The Impact of Gulf Stream-Induced Diabatic Forcing on Coastal Mid-Atlantic Surface Cyclogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cione, Joseph Jerome

In this dissertation, numerical experiments were conducted using a mesoscale atmospheric model developed at North Carolina State University. Three sets of numerical experiments were conducted and were designed to: quantify the impact Gulf Stream frontal distance, initial surface air temperature and cold air outbreak timing each have on the subsequent development of the marine atmospheric boundary layer during periods of offshore cold advection; investigate critical processes associated with Gulf Stream -induced mesocyclogenesis and; elucidate the role SST gradients and surface fluxes of heat and moisture have on the intensification and track of propagating mesocyclonic systems within the highly baroclinic Gulf Stream region. A major finding from the offshore cold advection simulations is that the initial air-sea contrast is the dominant forcing mechanism linked to the offshore circulation development and marine boundary layer modification. Results from the mesocyclogenesis experiments indicate that surface cyclogenesis was simulated to occur along a Gulf Stream meander in a region where the gradients in sea surface temperature (SST) were maximized. Results from sensitivity experiments illustrate that changes in the Gulf Stream SST gradient pattern can act to alter the timing and degree of cyclonic development simulated, while the inclusion of surface fluxes and moist convective processes during the development phase act to strongly enhance the intensity and/or occurrence of simulated mesocyclogenesis. Both observational and numerical results from studies investigating the impact strong Gulf Stream SST gradients have on the development of pre-existing, propagating cyclonic systems show that the baroclinic nature of the low level environment near the circulation center (as well as the degree of simulated/observed surface cyclonic intensification) appear to be highly dependent upon the mesoscale storm track within the Gulf Stream frontal zone. Furthermore, the numerical storm track experiments conducted in this research illustrate that surfaces fluxes can act to significantly alter the storm track of the surface mesocyclone (in addition to impacting the overall intensification of the simulated cyclonic system). This work also presents the technique development and operational utilization of the recently devised Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index (ASCII). The index continues to be implemented by the National Weather Service at the Raleigh-Durham and surrounding coastal forecast offices, and to date, has been successfully utilized for 11 coastal winter storm events over the February 1994-January 1996 period.

Spatial coherence and large-scale drivers of drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Svensson, Cecilia; Hannaford, Jamie

2017-04-01

Drought is a potentially widespread and generally multifaceted natural phenomenon affecting all aspects of the hydrological cycle. It mainly manifests itself at seasonal, or longer, time scales. Here, we use seasonal river flows across the climatologically and topographically diverse UK to investigate the spatial coherence of drought, and explore its oceanic and atmospheric drivers. A better understanding of the spatial characteristics and drivers will improve forecasting and help increase drought preparedness. The location of the UK in the mid-latitude belt of predominantly westerly winds, together with a pronounced topographical divide running roughly from north to south, produce strong windward and leeward effects. Weather fronts associated with storms tracking north-eastward between Scotland and Iceland typically lead to abundant precipitation in the mountainous north and west, while the south and east remain drier. In contrast, prolonged precipitation in eastern Britain tends to be associated with storms on a more southerly track, producing precipitation in onshore winds on the northern side of depressions. Persistence in the preferred storm tracks can therefore result in periods of wet/dry conditions across two main regions of the UK, a mountainous northwest region exposed to westerly winds and a more sheltered, lowland southeast region. This is reflected in cluster analyses of monthly river flow anomalies. A further division into three clusters separates out a region of highly permeable, slowly responding, catchments in the southeast. An expectation that the preferred storm tracks over seasonal time scales can be captured by atmospheric airflow indices, which in turn may be related to oceanic conditions, suggests that statistical methods may be used to describe the relationships between UK regional streamflows, and oceanic and atmospheric drivers. Such relationships may be concurrent or lagged, and the longer response time of the group of permeable catchments in the southeast also introduces lags in the statistical relationships. Three-month aggregations of the data were used to investigate potential oceanic and atmospheric drivers of streamflow drought in the three UK regions. Significant concurrent relationships were found for different parts of the year for several indices of northern hemisphere airflow patterns, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Arctic Oscillation, the East Atlantic, the East Atlantic/West Russia, and the Scandinavia patterns. Significant relationships with oceanic and atmospheric indices representing the El Niño/Southern Oscillation were found for both concurrent and lagged analyses.

Impact of sampling techniques on measured stormwater quality data for small streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harmel, R.D.; Slade, R.M.; Haney, R.L.

2010-01-01

Science-based sampling methodologies are needed to enhance water quality characterization for setting appropriate water quality standards, developing Total Maximum Daily Loads, and managing nonpoint source pollution. Storm event sampling, which is vital for adequate assessment of water quality in small (wadeable) streams, is typically conducted by manual grab or integrated sampling or with an automated sampler. Although it is typically assumed that samples from a single point adequately represent mean cross-sectional concentrations, especially for dissolved constituents, this assumption of well-mixed conditions has received limited evaluation. Similarly, the impact of temporal (within-storm) concentration variability is rarely considered. Therefore, this study evaluated differences in stormwater quality measured in small streams with several common sampling techniques, which in essence evaluated within-channel and within-storm concentration variability. Constituent concentrations from manual grab samples and from integrated samples were compared for 31 events, then concentrations were also compared for seven events with automated sample collection. Comparison of sampling techniques indicated varying degrees of concentration variability within channel cross sections for both dissolved and particulate constituents, which is contrary to common assumptions of substantial variability in particulate concentrations and of minimal variability in dissolved concentrations. Results also indicated the potential for substantial within-storm (temporal) concentration variability for both dissolved and particulate constituents. Thus, failing to account for potential cross-sectional and temporal concentration variability in stormwater monitoring projects can introduce additional uncertainty in measured water quality data. Copyright ?? 2010 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Using high-frequency sensors to identify hydroclimatological controls on storm-event variability in catchment nutrient fluxes and source zone activation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blaen, Phillip; Khamis, Kieran; Lloyd, Charlotte; Krause, Stefan

2017-04-01

At the river catchment scale, storm events can drive highly variable behaviour in nutrient and water fluxes, yet short-term dynamics are frequently missed by low resolution sampling regimes. In addition, nutrient source contributions can vary significantly within and between storm events. Our inability to identify and characterise time dynamic source zone contributions severely hampers the adequate design of land use management practices in order to control nutrient exports from agricultural landscapes. Here, we utilise an 8-month high-frequency (hourly) time series of streamflow, nitrate concentration (NO3) and fluorescent dissolved organic matter concentration (FDOM) derived from optical in-situ sensors located in a headwater agricultural catchment. We characterised variability in flow and nutrient dynamics across 29 storm events. Storm events represented 31% of the time series and contributed disproportionately to nutrient loads (43% of NO3 and 36% of CDOM) relative to their duration. Principal components analysis of potential hydroclimatological controls on nutrient fluxes demonstrated that a small number of components, representing >90% of variance in the dataset, were highly significant model predictors of inter-event variability in catchment nutrient export. Hysteresis analysis of nutrient concentration-discharge relationships suggested spatially discrete source zones existed for NO3 and FDOM, and that activation of these zones varied on an event-specific basis. Our results highlight the benefits of high-frequency in-situ monitoring for characterising complex short-term nutrient dynamics and unravelling connections between hydroclimatological variability and river nutrient export and source zone activation under extreme flow conditions. These new process-based insights are fundamental to underpinning the development of targeted management measures to reduce nutrient loading of surface waters.

Examples of storm impacts on barrier islands: Chapter 4

USGS Publications Warehouse

Plant, Nathaniel G.; Doran, Kara; Stockdon, Hilary F.

2017-01-01

This chapter focuses on the morphologic variability of barrier islands and on the differences in storm response. It describes different types of barrier island response to individual storms, as well as the integrated response of barrier islands to many storms. The chapter considers case study on the Chandeleur Island chain, where a decadal time series of island elevation measurements have documented a wide range of barrier island responses to storms and long-term processes that are representative of barrier island behaviour at many other locations. These islands are low elevation, extremely vulnerable to storms and exhibit a diversity of storm responses. Additionally, this location experiences a moderately high rate of relative sea-level rise, increasing its vulnerability to the combined impacts of storms and long-term erosional processes. Understanding how natural processes, including storm impacts and intervening recovery periods interact with man-made restoration processes is also broadly relevant to understand the natural and human response to future storms.

A hydroclimatic threshold for landslide initiation on the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Matthias; Weatherly, Hamish

2003-09-01

Landslides triggered by rainfall are the cause of thousands of deaths worldwide every year. One possible approach to limit the socioeconomic consequences of such events is the development of climatic thresholds for landslide initiation. In this paper, we propose a method that incorporates antecedent rainfall and streamflow data to develop a landslide initiation threshold for the North Shore Mountains of Vancouver, British Columbia. Hydroclimatic data were gathered for 18 storms that triggered landslides and 18 storms that did not. Discriminant function analysis separated the landslide-triggering storms from those storms that did not trigger landslides and selected the most meaningful variables that allow this separation. Discriminant functions were also developed for the landslide-triggering and nonlandslide-triggering storms. The difference of the discriminant scores, ΔCS, for both groups is a measure of landslide susceptibility during a storm. The variables identified that optimize the separation of the two storm groups are 4-week rainfall prior to a significant storm, 6-h rainfall during a storm, and the number of hours 1 m 3/s discharge was exceeded at Mackay Creek during a storm. Three thresholds were identified. The Landslide Warning Threshold (LWT) is reached when ΔCS is -1. The Conditional Landslide Initiation Threshold (CTL I) is reached when ΔCS is zero, and it implies that landslides are likely if 4 mm/h rainfall intensity is exceeded at which point the Imminent Landslide Initiation Threshold (ITL I) is reached. The LWT allows time for the issuance of a landslide advisory and to move personnel out of hazardous areas. The methodology proposed in this paper can be transferred to other regions worldwide where type and quality of data are appropriate for this type of analysis.

Characterizing convective cold pools: Characterizing Convective Cold Pools

DOE PAGES

Drager, Aryeh J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

2017-05-09

Cold pools produced by convective storms play an important role in Earth's climate system. However, a common framework does not exist for objectively identifying convective cold pools in observations and models. The present study investigates convective cold pools within a simulation of tropical continental convection that uses a cloud-resolving model with a coupled land-surface model. Multiple variables are assessed for their potential in identifying convective cold pool boundaries, and a novel technique is developed and tested for identifying and tracking cold pools in numerical model simulations. This algorithm is based on surface rainfall rates and radial gradients in the densitymore » potential temperature field. The algorithm successfully identifies near-surface cold pool boundaries and is able to distinguish between connected cold pools. Once cold pools have been identified and tracked, composites of cold pool evolution are then constructed, and average cold pool properties are investigated. Wet patches are found to develop within the centers of cold pools where the ground has been soaked with rainwater. These wet patches help to maintain cool surface temperatures and reduce cold pool dissipation, which has implications for the development of subsequent convection.« less

Characterizing convective cold pools: Characterizing Convective Cold Pools

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Drager, Aryeh J.; van den Heever, Susan C.

Cold pools produced by convective storms play an important role in Earth's climate system. However, a common framework does not exist for objectively identifying convective cold pools in observations and models. The present study investigates convective cold pools within a simulation of tropical continental convection that uses a cloud-resolving model with a coupled land-surface model. Multiple variables are assessed for their potential in identifying convective cold pool boundaries, and a novel technique is developed and tested for identifying and tracking cold pools in numerical model simulations. This algorithm is based on surface rainfall rates and radial gradients in the densitymore » potential temperature field. The algorithm successfully identifies near-surface cold pool boundaries and is able to distinguish between connected cold pools. Once cold pools have been identified and tracked, composites of cold pool evolution are then constructed, and average cold pool properties are investigated. Wet patches are found to develop within the centers of cold pools where the ground has been soaked with rainwater. These wet patches help to maintain cool surface temperatures and reduce cold pool dissipation, which has implications for the development of subsequent convection.« less

Hurricane impacts on coastal wetlands: A half-century record of storm-generated features from Southern Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, R.A.; Barras, J.A.

2011-01-01

Temporally and spatially repeated patterns of wetland erosion, deformation, and deposition are observed on remotely sensed images and in the field after hurricanes cross the coast of Louisiana. The diagnostic morphological wetland features are products of the coupling of high-velocity wind and storm-surge water and their interaction with the underlying, variably resistant, wetland vegetation and soils. Erosional signatures include construction of orthogonal-elongate ponds and amorphous ponds, pond expansion, plucked marsh, marsh denudation, and shoreline erosion. Post-storm gravity reflux of floodwater draining from the wetlands forms dendritic incisions around the pond margins and locally integrates drainage pathways forming braided channels. Depositional signatures include emplacement of broad zones of organic wrack on topographic highs and inorganic deposits of variable thicknesses and lateral extents in the form of shore-parallel sandy washover terraces and interior-marsh mud blankets. Deformational signatures primarily involve laterally compressed marsh and displaced marsh mats and balls. Prolonged water impoundment and marsh salinization also are common impacts associated with wetland flooding by extreme storms. Many of the wetland features become legacies that record prior storm impacts and locally influence subsequent storm-induced morphological changes. Wetland losses caused by hurricane impacts depend directly on impact duration, which is controlled by the diameter of hurricane-force winds, forward speed of the storm, and wetland distance over which the storm passes. Distinguishing between wetland losses caused by storm impacts and losses associated with long-term delta-plain processes is critical for accurate modeling and prediction of future conversion of land to open water. ?? Coastal Education & Research Foundation 2011.

Hurricane impacts on coastal wetlands: a half-century record of storm-generated features from southern Louisiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morton, Robert A.; Barras, John A.

2011-01-01

Temporally and spatially repeated patterns of wetland erosion, deformation, and deposition are observed on remotely sensed images and in the field after hurricanes cross the coast of Louisiana. The diagnostic morphological wetland features are products of the coupling of high-velocity wind and storm-surge water and their interaction with the underlying, variably resistant, wetland vegetation and soils. Erosional signatures include construction of orthogonal-elongate ponds and amorphous ponds, pond expansion, plucked marsh, marsh denudation, and shoreline erosion. Post-storm gravity reflux of floodwater draining from the wetlands forms dendritic incisions around the pond margins and locally integrates drainage pathways forming braided channels. Depositional signatures include emplacement of broad zones of organic wrack on topographic highs and inorganic deposits of variable thicknesses and lateral extents in the form of shore-parallel sandy washover terraces and interior-marsh mud blankets. Deformational signatures primarily involve laterally compressed marsh and displaced marsh mats and balls. Prolonged water impoundment and marsh salinization also are common impacts associated with wetland flooding by extreme storms. Many of the wetland features become legacies that record prior storm impacts and locally influence subsequent storm-induced morphological changes. Wetland losses caused by hurricane impacts depend directly on impact duration, which is controlled by the diameter of hurricane-force winds, forward speed of the storm, and wetland distance over which the storm passes. Distinguishing between wetland losses caused by storm impacts and losses associated with long-term delta-plain processes is critical for accurate modeling and prediction of future conversion of land to open water.

Comparison of wind velocity in thunderstorms determined from measurements by a ground-based Doppler radar and an F-106B airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Usry, J. W.; Dunham, R. E., Jr.; Lee, J. T.

1985-01-01

As a part of the NASA Storm Hazards Program, the wind velocity in several thunderstorms was measured by an F-106B instrumented airplane and a ground-based Doppler radar. The results of five airplane penetrations of two storms in 1980 and six penetrations of one storm in 1981 are given. Comparisons were made between the radial wind velocity components measured by the radar and the airplane. The correlation coefficients for the 1980 data and part of the 1981 data were 0.88 and 0.78, respectively. It is suggested that larger values for these coefficients may be obtained by improving the experimental technique and in particular by slaving the radar to track the airplane during such tests.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

When the last really big solar storm hit in 1921, Earth’s magnetic field funneled a wave of electrically charged particles toward the ground, where they induced a current along telegraph lines and railroad tracks, setting to telegraph offices and train stations—and the fledgling electric grid went dark. Almost a century later, today’s grid is bigger, more interconnected, and even more susceptible to a solar storm disaster. Los Alamos National Laboratory is developing a scientific analysis about how frequently a major geomagnetic storm might strike, which regions of the country are most vulnerable, and how bad it might be. This analysismore » is part of a plan to support electric utility companies and government regulators in taking the necessary steps to spare us all from the nightmare of days, weeks, or even months without power.« less

Holocene climate and climate variability of the northern Gulf of Mexico and adjacent northern Gulf Coast: A review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Poore, Richard Z.

2008-01-01

Marine records from the northern Gulf of Mexico indicate that significant multidecadal- and century-scale variability was common during the Holocene. Mean annual sea-surface temperature (SST) during the last 1,400 years may have varied by 3°C, and excursions to cold SST coincide with reductions in solar output. Broad trends in Holocene terrestrial climate and environmental change along the eastern portion of the northern Gulf Coast are evident from existing pollen records, but the high-frequency details of climate variability are not well known. Continuous and well-dated records of climate change and climate variability in the western portion of the northern Gulf Coast are essentially lacking.Information on Holocene floods, droughts, and storm frequency along the northern Gulf Coast is limited. Records of floods may be preserved in continental shelf sediments, but establishing continuity and chronologies for sedimentary sequences on the shelf presents challenges due to sediment remobilization and redeposition during storms. Studies of past storm deposits in coastal lakes and marshes show promise for constructing records of past storm frequency. A recent summary of sea-level history of the northern Gulf Coast indicates sea level was higher than modern sea level several times during the last few thousand years.

Hindcast of extreme sea states in North Atlantic extratropical storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponce de León, Sonia; Guedes Soares, Carlos

2015-02-01

This study examines the variability of freak wave parameters around the eye of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones. The data was obtained from a hindcast performed with the WAve Model (WAM) model forced by the wind fields of the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR). The hindcast results were validated against the wave buoys and satellite altimetry data showing a good correlation. The variability of different wave parameters was assessed by applying the empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) technique on the hindcast data. From the EOF analysis, it can be concluded that the first empirical orthogonal function (V1) accounts for greater share of variability of significant wave height (Hs), peak period (Tp), directional spreading (SPR) and Benjamin-Feir index (BFI). The share of variance in V1 varies for cyclone and variable: for the 2nd storm and Hs V1 contains 96 % of variance while for the 3rd storm and BFI V1 accounts only for 26 % of variance. The spatial patterns of V1 show that the variables are distributed around the cyclones centres mainly in a lobular fashion.

Atmospheric structure and variability in areas of convective storms determined from 3-h rawinsonde data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wilson, G. S.; Scoggins, J. R.

1976-01-01

The structure and variability of the atmosphere in areas of radar-observed convection were established by using 3-h rawinsonde and surface data from NASA's second Atmospheric Variability Experiment. Convective activity was shown to exist in areas where the low and middle troposphere is moist and the air is potentially and convectively unstable and has upward motion, in combination with positive moisture advection, at either the surface or within the boundary layer. The large variability of the parameters associated with convective storms over time intervals less than 12 h was also demonstrated so as to possibly produce a change in the probability of convective activity by a factor of 8 or more in 3 h. Between 30 and 60 percent of the total changes in parameters associated with convective activity over a 12-h period were shown to take place during a 3-h period. These large changes in parameters are related to subsynoptic-scale systems that often produce convective storms.

GCM simulations of intraseasonal variability in the Pacific/North American region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Suarez, Max; Park, Chung-Kyu; Moorthi, Shrinivas

1993-01-01

General circulation model (GCM) simulations of low-frequency variability with time scales of 20 to 70 days are analyzed for the Pacific sector during boreal winter. The GCM's leading mode in the upper-tropospheric zonal wind is associated with fluctuations of the East Asian jet; this mode resembles, in both structure and amplitude, the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern found in the observations on these time scales. In both the model and observations, the PNA anomaly is characterized by: (1) a linear balance in the upper-tropospheric vorticity budget with no significant Rossby wave source in the tropics, (2) a barotropic conversion of kinetic energy from the time mean Pacific jet, and (3) a north/south displacement of the Pacific storm track. In the GCM, the latter is associated with synoptic eddy heat flux and latent heat anomalies that appear to contribute to a strong lower-tropospheric source of wave activity over the North Pacific. This is in contrast to the observations, which show only a weak source of wave activity in this region.

Evaluation of conventional and alternative monitoring methods for a recreational marine beach with nonpoint source of fecal contamination.

PubMed

Shibata, Tomoyuki; Solo-Gabriele, Helena M; Sinigalliano, Christopher D; Gidley, Maribeth L; Plano, Lisa R W; Fleisher, Jay M; Wang, John D; Elmir, Samir M; He, Guoqing; Wright, Mary E; Abdelzaher, Amir M; Ortega, Cristina; Wanless, David; Garza, Anna C; Kish, Jonathan; Scott, Troy; Hollenbeck, Julie; Backer, Lorraine C; Fleming, Lora E

2010-11-01

The objectives of this work were to compare enterococci (ENT) measurements based on the membrane filter, ENT(MF) with alternatives that can provide faster results including alternative enterococci methods (e.g., chromogenic substrate (CS), and quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR)), and results from regression models based upon environmental parameters that can be measured in real-time. ENT(MF) were also compared to source tracking markers (Staphylococcus aureus, Bacteroidales human and dog markers, and Catellicoccus gull marker) in an effort to interpret the variability of the signal. Results showed that concentrations of enterococci based upon MF (<2 to 3320 CFU/100 mL) were significantly different from the CS and qPCR methods (p < 0.01). The correlations between MF and CS (r = 0.58, p < 0.01) were stronger than between MF and qPCR (r ≤ 0.36, p < 0.01). Enterococci levels by MF, CS, and qPCR methods were positively correlated with turbidity and tidal height. Enterococci by MF and CS were also inversely correlated with solar radiation but enterococci by qPCR was not. The regression model based on environmental variables provided fair qualitative predictions of enterococci by MF in real-time, for daily geometric mean levels, but not for individual samples. Overall, ENT(MF) was not significantly correlated with source tracking markers with the exception of samples collected during one storm event. The inability of the regression model to predict ENT(MF) levels for individual samples is likely due to the different sources of ENT impacting the beach at any given time, making it particularly difficult to to predict short-term variability of ENT(MF) for environmental parameters.

Morphodynamic signature of the 1985 hurricane impacts on the northern Gulf of Mexico

USGS Publications Warehouse

Penland, Shea; Suter, John R.; Sallenger, Ashbury H.; Williams, S. Jeffress; McBride, Randolph A.; Westphal, Karen E.; Reimer, P. Douglas; Jaffe, Bruce E.

1989-01-01

Three hurricanes hit Lousiana (LA), Mississippi (MS), Alabama (AL), and the Florida (FL) panhandle in 1985, producing dramatic geomorphic changes in a wide variety of coastal environments. The impact zone for hurricanes Danny, Elena, and Juan stretched 1000 km between the Sabine River in LA to the Apalachicola River in FL. Barrier shorelines experienced repeated intense overwash events, producing beach and dune erosion exceeding 30 m, as well as producing classic examples of storm surge deposits. Pre- and post-storm airborne videotape surveys, sequential vertical mapping photography, and field surveys provide the data base for this regional hurricane impact assessment on the northern Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane impacts on the low-profile and high-profile barrier shorelines, as well as on the marine terrace cliffs were systematic and predictable. Controlling the direction of overwash flow and the impact distribution pattern is the relationship among shoreline orientation, hurricane storm track, and regional wind field. The relationship between shore-zone geomorphology and storm surge overwash controls the impact response.

A Total Lightning Perspective of the 20 May 2013 Moore, Oklahoma Supercell

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stano, Geoffrey T.; Schultz, Christopher J.; Carey, Lawrence D.; MacGorman, Don R.; Calhoun, Kristin M.

2014-01-01

In the early afternoon of 20 May 2013, a storm initiated to the west-southwest of Newcastle, Oklahoma. This storm would rapidly intensify into the parent supercell of the tornado that struck the city of Moore, Oklahoma. This article describes what contributions total lightning observations from the Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array could provide to operational forecasters had these observations been available in real-time. This effort includes a focus on the GOES-R pseudo-geostationary lightning mapper demonstration product as well as the NASA SPoRT / Meteorological Development Laboratory's total lightning tracking tool. These observations and tools identified several contributions. Two distinct lightning jumps at 1908 and 1928 UTC provided a lead time of 19 minutes ahead of severe hail and 26 minutes ahead of the Moore, Oklahoma tornado's touchdown. These observations provide strong situational awareness to forecasters, as the lightning jumps are related to the rapid strengthening of the storm's updraft and mesocyclone and serve as a precursor to the stretching of the storm vortex ahead severe weather.

Observed ocean waves by tropical cyclones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Lin; Oey, Leo

2017-04-01

Ocean waves produced by tropical cyclones (TC) modify air-sea fluxes which in turn are crucial to the storms' intensity and development, yet they are poorly understood. Here we use 24 years (1992-2015) of observed waves, winds and TC-track information to stratify storm-centered composite maps of waves and winds according to TC intensities and translation speeds (Uh). While the wind field is rightward-asymmetric independent of Uh, the wave field is rightward-symmetric in concert with the wind for slow-translating TCs (Uh ≤ 3 m s-1), but right-rear asymmetric with strongest waves in the 4th quadrant for medium to fast-translating TCs (3 < Uh ≤ 7 m s-1), especially for the very fast storms (Uh > 7 m s-1), all independent of TC-intensity. The dominance of the right-rear asymmetry for fast-translating TCs appears to be related to the development of cross swells as the storms move faster, but further research using models are needed to understand the physical mechanisms.

Hurricane frequency and landfall distribution for coastal wetlands of the Gulf coast, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doyle, T.W.

2009-01-01

The regularity and severity of tropical storms are major determinants controlling ecosystem structure and succession for coastal ecosystems. Hurricane landfall rates vary greatly with high and low frequency for given coastal stretches of the southeastern United States. Site-specific meteorological data of hurricane wind speeds and direction, however, are only available for select populated cities of relatively sparse distribution and inland from the coast. A spatial simulation model of hurricane circulation, HURASIM, was applied to reconstruct chronologies of hurricane wind speeds and vectors for northern Gulf coast locations derived from historical tracking data of North Atlantic tropical storms dating back to 1851. Contrasts of storm frequencies showed that tropical storm incidence is nearly double for Florida coastal ecosystems than the westernmost stretches of Texas coastline. Finer-scale spatial simulations for the north-central Gulf coast exhibited sub-regional differences in storm strength and frequency with coastal position and latitude. The overall pattern of storm incidence in the Gulf basin indicates that the disturbance regime of coastal areas varies greatly along the coast, inland from the coast, and temporally over the period of record. Field and modeling studies of coastal ecosystems will benefit from this retrospective analysis of hurricane incidence and intensity both on a local or regional basis. ?? 2009 The Society of Wetland Scientists.

Space-to-Ground: Tracking a Monster: 09/08/2017

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-09-07

Three crew members said farewell to the station...the station had eyes on a monstrous storm...and what kind of weather can you have in space? NASA's Space to Ground is your weekly update on what's happening aboard the International Space Station.

Impact of the Lower Atmosphere on the Ionosphere Response to a Geomagnetic Superstorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedatella, N. M.

2016-12-01

Numerical simulations in the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) are performed to elucidate the impacts of lower atmosphere forcing on the ionosphere response to a geomagnetic superstorm. In particular, how the ionosphere variability due to the October 2003 Halloween storm would be different if it occurred in January coincident with a major sudden stratosphere warming (SSW) event is investigated. The TIE-GCM simulations reveal that the E x B vertical drift velocity and total electron content (TEC) respond differently to the geomagnetic disturbance when the lower atmosphere forcing is representative of SSW conditions compared to climatological lower atmosphere forcing conditions. Notably, the storm time variations in the E x B vertical drift velocity differ when the effects of the SSW are considered, and this is in part due to effects of the SSW on the equatorial ionosphere being potentially misinterpreted as being of geomagnetic origin. Differences in the TEC response to the geomagnetic storm can be up to 100% ( 30 TECU) of the storm induced TEC change, and the temporal variability of the TEC during the storm recovery phase is considerably different if SSW effects are considered. The results demonstrate that even during periods of extreme geomagnetic forcing it is important to consider the effects of lower atmosphere forcing on the ionosphere variability.

Typhoon Sinlaku

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2013-04-16

... before the storm weakened as it moved inland. While the nature and formation of individual storm events is relatively well understood, ... clouds on climate is difficult to assess due to the variable nature of cloud cover at various altitudes. MISR's data products are designed ...

Real-Time Tracking of the Extreme Rainfall of Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria using UCI CHRS's iRain System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shearer, E. J.; Nguyen, P.; Ombadi, M.; Palacios, T.; Huynh, P.; Furman, D.; Tran, H.; Braithwaite, D.; Hsu, K. L.; Sorooshian, S.; Logan, W. S.

2017-12-01

During the 2017 hurricane season, three major hurricanes-Harvey, Irma, and Maria-devastated the Atlantic coast of the US and the Caribbean Islands. Harvey set the record for the rainiest storm in continental US history, Irma was the longest-lived powerful hurricane ever observed, and Maria was the costliest storm in Puerto Rican history. The recorded maximum precipitation totals for these storms were 65, 16, and 20 inches respectively. These events provided the Center for Hydrometeorology and Remote Sensing (CHRS) an opportunity to test its global real-time satellite precipitation observation system, iRain, for extreme storm events. The iRain system has been under development through a collaboration between CHRS at the University of California, Irvine (UCI) and UNESCO's International Hydrological Program (IHP). iRain provides near real-time high resolution (0.04°, approx. 4km) global (60°N - 60°S) satellite precipitation data estimated by the PERSIANN-Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) algorithm developed by the scientists at CHRS. The user-interactive and web-accessible iRain system allows users to visualize and download real-time global satellite precipitation estimates and track the development and path of the current 50 largest storms globally from data generated by the PERSIANN-CCS algorithm. iRain continuously proves to be an effective tool for measuring real-time precipitation amounts of extreme storms-especially in locations that do not have extensive rain gauge or radar coverage. Such areas include large portions of the world's oceans and over continents such as Africa and Asia. CHRS also created a mobile app version of the system named "iRain UCI", available for iOS and Android devices. During these storms, real-time rainfall data generated by PERSIANN-CCS was consistently comparable to radar and rain gauge data. This presentation evaluates iRain's efficiency as a tool for extreme precipitation monitoring and provides an evaluation of the PERSIANN-CCS real-time rainfall estimates during Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria in relation to radar and rain gauge data using continuous (correlation, root mean square error, and bias) and categorical (POD and FAR) indices. These results present the relative skill of PERSIANN-CCS real-time data to radar and rain gauge data.

Hurricane Matthew (2016) and its Storm Surge Inundation under Global Warming Scenarios: Application of an Interactively Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jisan, M. A.; Bao, S.; Pietrafesa, L.; Pullen, J.

2017-12-01

An interactively coupled atmosphere-ocean model was used to investigate the impacts of future ocean warming, both at the surface and the layers below, on the track and intensity of a hurricane and its associated storm surge and inundation. The category-5 hurricane Matthew (2016), which made landfall on the South Carolina coast of the United States, was used for the case study. Future ocean temperature changes and sea level rise (SLR) were estimated based on the projection of Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)'s Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. After being validated with the present-day observational data, the model was applied to simulate the changes in track, intensity, storm surge and inundation that Hurricane Matthew would cause under future climate change scenarios. It was found that a significant increase in hurricane intensity, storm surge water level, and inundation area for Hurricane Matthew under future ocean warming and SLR scenarios. For example, under the RCP 8.5 scenario, the maximum wind speed would increase by 17 knots (14.2%), the minimum sea level pressure would decrease by 26 hPa (2.85%), and the inundated area would increase by 401 km2 (123%). By including the effect of SLR for the middle-21st-century scenario, the inundated area will further increase by up to 49.6%. The increase in the hurricane intensity and the inundated area was also found for the RCP 2.6 scenario. The response of sea surface temperature was analyzed to investigate the change in intensity. A comparison was made between the impacts when only the sea surface warming is considered versus when both the sea surface and the underneath layers are considered. These results showed that even without the effect of SLR, the storm surge level and the inundated area would be higher due to the increased hurricane intensity under the influence of the future warmer ocean temperature. The coupled effect of ocean warming and SLR would cause the hurricane-induced storm surge and inundation to be amplified. The relative importance of the ocean warming versus the SLR was evaluated. Keywords: Hurricane Matthew, Global Warming, Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model, Air-Sea interactions, Storm Surge, Inundation

Development of a Near-Real Time Hail Damage Swath Identification Algorithm for Vegetation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bell, Jordan R.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Schultz, Lori A.; McGrath, Kevin M.; Burks, Jason E.

2015-01-01

The Midwest is home to one of the world's largest agricultural growing regions. Between the time period of late May through early September, and with irrigation and seasonal rainfall these crops are able to reach their full maturity. Using moderate to high resolution remote sensors, the monitoring of the vegetation can be achieved using the red and near-infrared wavelengths. These wavelengths allow for the calculation of vegetation indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The vegetation growth and greenness, in this region, grows and evolves uniformly as the growing season progresses. However one of the biggest threats to Midwest vegetation during the time period is thunderstorms that bring large hail and damaging winds. Hail and wind damage to crops can be very expensive to crop growers and, damage can be spread over long swaths associated with the tracks of the damaging storms. Damage to the vegetation can be apparent in remotely sensed imagery and is visible from space after storms slightly damage the crops, allowing for changes to occur slowly over time as the crops wilt or more readily apparent if the storms strip material from the crops or destroy them completely. Previous work on identifying these hail damage swaths used manual interpretation by the way of moderate and higher resolution satellite imagery. With the development of an automated and near-real time hail swath damage identification algorithm, detection can be improved, and more damage indicators be created in a faster and more efficient way. The automated detection of hail damage swaths will examine short-term, large changes in the vegetation by differencing near-real time eight day NDVI composites and comparing them to post storm imagery from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) aboard Terra and Aqua and Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) aboard Suomi NPP. In addition land surface temperatures from these instruments will be examined as for hail damage swath identification. Initial validation of the automated algorithm is based upon Storm Prediction Center storm reports but also the National Severe Storm Laboratory (NSSL) Maximum Estimated Size Hail (MESH) product. Opportunities for future work are also shown, with focus on expansion of this algorithm with pixel-based image classification techniques for tracking surface changes as a result of severe weather.

Influence of Kuroshio Oceanic Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, X.; Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Montuoro, R.; Hsieh, J. S.; Wu, D.; Lin, X.; Wu, L.; Jing, Z.

2016-02-01

High-resolution satellite observations reveal energetic meso-scale ocean eddy activity and positive correlation between meso-scale sea surface temperature (SST) and surface wind along oceanic frontal zones, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, suggesting a potential role of meso-scale oceanic eddies in forcing the atmosphere. Using a 27 km horizontal resolution Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model forced with observed daily SST at 0.09° spatial resolution during boreal winter season, two ensembles of 10 WRF simulations, in one of which meso-scale SST variability induced by ocean eddies was suppressed, were conducted in the North Pacific to study the local and remote influence of meso-scale oceanic eddies in the Kuroshio Extention Region (KER) on the atmosphere. Suppression of meso-scale oceanic eddies results in a deep tropospheric response along and downstream of the KER, including a significant decrease (increase) in winter season mean rainfall along the KER (west coast of US), a reduction of storm genesis in the KER, and a southward shift of the jet stream and North Pacific storm track in the eastern North Pacific. The simulated local and remote rainfall response to meso-scale oceanic eddies in the KER is also supported by observational analysis. A mechanism invoking moist baroclinic instability is proposed as a plausible explanation for the linkage between meso-scale oceanic eddies in the KER and large-scale atmospheric response in the North Pacific. It is argued that meso-scale oceanic eddies can have a rectified effect on planetary boundary layer moisture, the stability of the lower atmosphere and latent heat release, which in turn affect cyclogenesis. The accumulated effect of the altered storm development downstream further contributes to the equivalent barotropic mean flow change in the eastern North Pacific basin.

Military Advertising Awareness and Effectiveness: Findings from the 1991 Youth Attitude Tracking Study

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-10-01

I AD-A274 260 i DEFENSEI MANPOWER DATA CENTER I I Military Advertising Awareness and Effectiveness Finding from the 19I9I ~ Youth Attitude Tracking...34How effective is military advertising?" First, it examines YATS items that addressed the youth population’s reported awareness of military advertising...reporting more awareness of military advertising in those media . The 1991 I increase in TV awareness may be a residual effect of Operation Desert Storm

Analysis of SFMR-Derived and Satellite-Based Rain Rates over the Tropical Western North Pacific

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-01

from SFMR are compared to rain rates from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–EOS ( ASMR -E) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM...2010 program. Rain rates from SFMR are compared to rain rates from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer–EOS ( ASMR -E) and the Tropical Rainfall...Figures 10 and 11, except for the ASMR -E and (a) earth-relative flight track and (b) storm-relative flight track for TY Sinlaku on 12 Sep 2008

Clouds and troughs of total electron content detected with the ionospheric weather index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gulyaeva, Tamara

2016-07-01

The ionospheric weather W index has been developed with the different thresholds of change in the F2 layer peak electron density NmF2 (proportional to foF2 critical frequency) or total electron content TEC relative their quiet reference for quantifying the ionosphere variability. The thresholds of DTEC=log(TEC/TECq) are selected for the positive and negative logarithm of TEC ratio to the quiet reference median, TECq, at any given location on the Earth. The global W-index maps are produced from Global Ionospheric Maps of Total Electron Content, GIM-TEC, and provided online at http://www.izmiran.ru/services/iweather/ and http://www.iololab.org/. Based on W-index maps, Catalogues of the ionospheric storms and sub-storms are produced available for the users. The second generation of the ionospheric weather indices, designated V index, is recently introduced and applied for the retrospective study of GIM-TEC variability during 1999-2015. Using sliding-window statistical analysis, moving daily-hourly TEC median TECq for 15 preceding days with estimated variance bounds are obtained at cells of GIM-TEC. The ionosphere variability index, V, is expressed in terms of ΔTEC deviation from the median normalized by the standard deviation STD. V index segmentation is introduced from Vn=-4 in step of 1 to Vp=4 specifying TEC storm if an instant TEC is outside of TECq+-1STD. The global maps of V index allow distinguish the clouds of enhanced TEC (positive storm signatures) and troughs of TEC depletion (negative storm signatures) as compared to the background quiet reference TECq map. It is found that the large-scale TEC clouds and troughs are observed in space all over the world constituting up to 20-50 percent of cells of GIM-TEC. The time variation of these plasma patches is partly following to geomagnetic SSC storm onset. As concerns the interplanetary and the solar wind, SW, sources of the ionospheric storms the TEC storms are observed both with IMF and SW precursors and without the IMF and SW storm signatures. Results of the ionospheric storm studies with the ionospheric weather indices are discussed in the paper. This study is supported by TUBITAK EEEAG 115E915.

Potential Release Site Sediment Concentrations Correlated to Storm Water Station Runoff through GIS Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

C.T. McLean

2005-06-01

This research examined the relationship between sediment sample data taken at Potential Release Sites (PRSs) and storm water samples taken at selected sites in and around Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The PRSs had been evaluated for erosion potential and a matrix scoring system implemented. It was assumed that there would be a stronger relationship between the high erosion PRSs and the storm water samples. To establish the relationship, the research was broken into two areas. The first area was raster-based modeling, and the second area was data analysis utilizing the raster based modeling results and the sediment and stormmore » water sample results. Two geodatabases were created utilizing raster modeling functions and the Arc Hydro program. The geodatabase created using only Arc Hydro functions contains very fine catchment drainage areas in association with the geometric network and can be used for future contaminant tracking. The second geodatabase contains sub-watersheds for all storm water stations used in the study along with a geometric network. The second area of the study focused on data analysis. The analytical sediment data table was joined to the PRSs spatial data in ArcMap. All PRSs and PRSs with high erosion potential were joined separately to create two datasets for each of 14 analytes. Only the PRSs above the background value were retained. The storm water station spatial data were joined to the table of analyte values that were either greater than the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) Multi-Sector General Permit (MSGP) benchmark value, or the Department of Energy (DOE) Drinking Water Defined Contribution Guideline (DWDCG). Only the storm water stations were retained that had sample values greater than the NPDES MSGP benchmark value or the DOE DWDCG. Separate maps were created for each analyte showing the sub-watersheds, the PRSs over background, and the storm water stations greater than the NPDES MSGP benchmark value or the DOE DWDCG. Tables were then created for each analyte that listed the PRSs average value by storm water station allowing a tabular view of the mapped data. The final table that was created listed the number of high erosion PRSs and regular PRSs over background values that were contained in each watershed. An overall relationship between the high erosion PRSs or the regular PRSs and the storm water stations was not identified through the methods used in this research. However, the Arc Hydro data models created for this analysis were used to track possible sources of contamination found through sampling at the storm water gaging stations. This geometric network tracing was used to identify possible relationships between the storm water stations and the PRSs. The methods outlined for the geometric network tracing could be used to find other relationships between the sites. A cursory statistical analysis was performed which could be expanded and applied to the data sets generated during this research to establish a broader relationship between the PRSs and storm water stations.« less

An evaluation of nitrogen and phosphorus responses to rain events in a forested watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steadman, C.; Argerich, A.; Bladon, K. D.; Johnson, S. L.

2017-12-01

Nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) exhibit differential responses to storm events which reflect complex, hydrologically-driven biogeochemical activity in a watershed. However, the magnitude of the responses change throughout the year indicating that they may be strongly influenced by antecedent precipitation conditions. To evaluate N and P responses to storms, we collected storm samples from four subwatersheds in a small forested watershed over a 12-month period as well as climate and hydrologic data. We quantified dissolved nitrate (NO3-), ammonium (NH4+), total dissolved nitrogen (TDN), soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP), and total dissolved phosphorus (TDP) concentrations and exports in 300 samples and examined responses across subwatersheds and storms. To assess the influence of potential drivers, we generated a series of models with discharge, instantaneous rain, and cumulative rain as explanatory variables for analyte concentrations. We also constructed models with cumulative rain as the explanatory variable for analyte exports. There was strong evidence (p < .05) that cumulative rain or the cumulative rain-subwatershed interaction were important for all analyte exports and concentrations. In contrast, evidence was weak for the significance of instantaneous rain for any analyte concentrations while discharge or the discharge-subwatershed interaction was significant for NO3- and NH4+, respectively. Of all factors, cumulative rain was the most relevant to explain analyte concentrations (i.e., showed the highest pseudo-R2), except for NH4+, for which discharge was more relevant. There was significant spatial and temporal variability for all analyte concentrations with the exception of NH4+, which showed little variability storm-to-storm. Maximum NO3- concentration occurred at the onset of the wet season while SRP had the lowest concentration during the same time period. Differential responses of analytes evidence distinct influences of hydrologically-driven biogeochemical activity on individual analytes. However, strong correlations with cumulative rain suggest that insight may be gained through consideration of coarser factors such as antecedent precipitation conditions which may serve to integrate complexities of the hillslope, improving understanding of N and P variability.

Regional-scale impact of storm surges on groundwaters of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico after 2017 hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose, Maria

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sellier, W. H.; Dürr, H. H.

2017-12-01

Hurricanes and related storm surges have devastating effects on near-shore infrastructure and above-ground installations. They also heavily impact groundwater resources, with potentially millions of people dependant on these resources as a freshwater source. Destructions of casings and direct incursions of saline and/or polluted waters have been widely observed. It is uncertain how extensive the effects are on underground water systems, especially in limestone karst areas such as Florida and Puerto Rico. Here, we report regional-scale water level changes in groundwater systems of Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico for the 2017 Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Jose and Maria. We collected regional scale data from the USGS Waterdata portal. Puerto Rico shows the strongest increase in groundwater levels in wells during Hurricane Maria, with less reaction for the preceding storms Irma and Jose. Increases in water levels range from 0.5 to 11m, with maximum storm surges in Puerto Rico around 3m. These wells are located throughout Puerto Rico, on the coast and inland. In Florida, most wells that show a response during Hurricane Irma are located in the Miami region. Wells located on the west coast show smaller responses with the exception of one well located directly on Hurricane Irma's track. These wells show an increase of 0.2 to 1.7m. In Texas, wells located in proximity to Hurricane Harvey's track show an increase in water level. The effect of groundwater level increases is not limited to the Texas coast, but inland as well. An increase between 0.03 and 2.9m is seen. Storm surges for both Florida and Texas have ranged from 1.8-3.7m maximum. We discuss the findings in the context of local and regional geology and hydrogeology (presence of connected aquifer systems, faulting, presence of carbonate/karst systems etc.).

Operational Impact of Data Collected from the Global Hawk Unmanned Aircraft During SHOUT

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wick, G. A.; Dunion, J. P.; Sippel, J.; Cucurull, L.; Aksoy, A.; Kren, A.; Christophersen, H.; Black, P.

2017-12-01

The primary scientific goal of the Sensing Hazards with Operational Unmanned Technology (SHOUT) Project was to determine the potential utility of observations from high-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aircraft systems such as the Global Hawk (GH) aircraft to improve operational forecasts of high-impact weather events or mitigate potential degradation of forecasts in the event of a future gap in satellite coverage. Hurricanes and tropical cyclones are among the most potentially destructive high-impact weather events and pose a major forecasting challenge to NOAA. Major winter storms over the Pacific Ocean, including atmospheric river events, which make landfall and bring strong winds and extreme precipitation to the West Coast and Alaska are also important to forecast accurately because of their societal impact in those parts of the country. In response, the SHOUT project supported three field campaigns with the GH aircraft and dedicated data impact studies exploring the potential for the real-time data from the aircraft to improve the forecasting of both tropical cyclones and landfalling Pacific storms. Dropsonde observations from the GH aircraft were assimilated into the operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) and Global Forecast System (GFS) models. The results from several diverse but complementary studies consistently demonstrated significant positive forecast benefits spanning the regional and global models. Forecast skill improvements within HWRF reached up to about 9% for track and 14% for intensity. Within GFS, track skill improvements for multi-storm averages exceeded 10% and improvements for individual storms reached over 20% depending on forecast lead time. Forecasted precipitation was also improved. Impacts for Pacific winter storms were smaller but still positive. The results are highly encouraging and support the potential for operational utilization of data from a platform like the GH. This presentation summarizes the observations collected and highlights the multiple impact studies completed.

A Process-Based Insight into the Severity of 'Super' Storm Desmond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, Tom; Murphy, Conor; Gerard, McCarthy; Rob, Wilby

2017-04-01

Climate warming is projected to increase winter rainfall and societally-impactful flood frequency across the British-Irish Isles (BI). The dynamical explanation for this change is linked to the North Atlantic (NA) storm track, with projections indicating both an enhanced frequency of wintertime extratropical cyclones ('cyclones'), and an increase in their average precipitation. The latter is, in part, a result of more intense moisture transport in cyclones' warm sectors by 'Atmospheric Rivers' (ARs), thermodynamically-driven by enhanced absolute humidity consistent with the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. It is against this backdrop that we scrutinise the physical drivers of the record-breaking rain and flood event associated with 'Storm Desmond' in December, 2015. We find that more than 3,500 km2 experienced rainfall in excess of the mean annual maximum during the storm's passage. The exceptional rain amounts were due to an AR more intense than any other in our observational record (1979-2015). However, we find that its unparalleled strength was as much a consequence of strong wind speeds as high humidity, so its severity cannot be attributed so simply to climate warming. This position is made clearer through a Lagrangian air mass tracking procedure, where we show that most (67%) of the moisture that precipitated out over BI during Desmond's passage evaporated from sea surfaces that were cooler than their 1951-1980 average. We therefore conclude that 1) the process-based observational approach applied here can provide valuable insight into climate change attribution assessments; and 2) Storm Desmond - despite being the most severe on record - was perhaps moderated by the anomalously cool NA sea-surface temperatures, which may have suppressed evaporation and vapour transport. The capacity for an even more impactful AR should SSTs in the sub-polar NA return to even their 20th Century averages, given otherwise identical synoptic circulation, should therefore be appreciated by planners and policy makers alike.

Teleconnection Locator: TeleLoc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowen, M. K.; Duffy, D.

2016-12-01

Extreme climate events, such as tropical storms, droughts, and floods, have an enormous impact on all aspects of society. Being able to detect the causes of such events on a global scale is paramount to being able to predict when and where these events will occur. These teleconnections, where a small change in a closed, complex system creates drastic disturbances elsewhere in the system, are generally represented by an index, one of the most famous being the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, due to the enormity, complexity, and technical challenges surrounding climate and its data, it is hypothesized that many of these teleconnections have as of yet gone undiscovered. TeleLoc (Teleconnection Locator) is a machine-learning framework combining a number of techniques for finding correlations between weather trends and extreme climate events. The current focus is on connecting global trends with tropical cyclones. A combination of two data sets, The International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA2), are being utilized. PostGIS is used for raw data storage, and a Python API has been developed as the core of the framework. Cyclones are first clustered using a combination of Symbolic Aggregate ApproXimation (this allows for a symbolic, sequential representation of the various time-series variables of interest) and DBSCAN. This serves to break the events into subcategories, which alleviates computational load for the next step. Events which are clustered together (those with similar characteristics) are compared against global climate variables of interest, which are also converted to a symbolic form, leading up to the event using Association Rule Mining. Results will be shown where cyclones have been clustered, specifically in the West Pacific storm basin, as well as the global variable symbolic subsections with a high support that have been singled out for analysis.

Spatial variability of hailfalls in France: an analysis of air mass retro-trajectories

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hermida, Lucía; Merino, Andrés; Sánchez, José Luis; Berthet, Claude; Dessens, Jean; López, Laura; Fernández-González, Sergio; Gascón, Estíbaliz; García-Ortega, Eduardo

2014-05-01

Hail is the main meteorological risk in south-west France, with the strongest hailfalls being concentrated in just a few days. Specifically, this phenomenon occurs most often and with the greatest severity in the Midi-Pyrénées area. Previous studies have revealed the high spatial variability of hailfall in this part of France, even leading to different characteristics being recorded on hailpads that were relatively close together. For this reason, an analysis of the air mass trajectories was carried out at ground level and at altitude, which subsequently led to the formation of the hail recorded by these hailpads. It is already known that in the study zone, the trajectories of the storms usually stretch for long distances and are oriented towards the east, leading to hailstones with diameters in excess of 3 cm, and without any change in direction above 3 km. We analysed different days with hail precipitation where there was at least one stone with a diameter of 3 cm or larger. Using the simulations from these days, an analysis of the backward trajectories of the air masses was carried out. We used the HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory Model) to determine the origin of the air masses, and tracked them toward each of the hailpads that were hit during the day studied. The height of the final points was the height of the impacted hailpads. Similarly, the backward trajectories for different heights were also established. Finally, the results show how storms that affect neighbouring hailpads come from very different air masses; and provide a deeper understanding of the high variability that affects the characteristics of hailfalls. Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank the Regional Government of Castile-León for its financial support through the project LE220A11-2. This study was supported by the following grants: GRANIMETRO (CGL2010-15930); MICROMETEO (IPT-310000-2010-22).

Nitrate Removal Rates in Denitrifying Bioreactors During Storm Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pluer, W.; Walter, T.

2017-12-01

Field denitrifying bioreactors are designed to reduce excess nitrate (NO3-) pollution in runoff from agricultural fields. Field bioreactors saturate organic matter to create conditions that facilitate microbial denitrification. Prior studies using steady flow in lab-scale bioreactors showed that a hydraulic retention time (HRT) between 4 and 10 hours was optimal for reducing NO3- loads. However, during storm-induced events, flow rate and actual HRT fluctuate. These fluctuations have the potential to disrupt the system in significant ways that are not captured by the idealized steady-flow HRT models. The goal of this study was to investigate removal rate during dynamic storm flows of variable rates and durations. Our results indicate that storm peak flow and duration were not significant controlling variables. Instead, we found high correlations (p=0.004) in average removal rates between bioreactors displaying a predominantly uniform flow pattern compared with bioreactors that exhibited preferential flow (24.4 and 21.4 g N m-3 d-1, respectively). This suggests that the internal flow patterns are a more significant driver of removal rate than external factors of the storm hydrograph. Designing for flow patterns in addition to theoretical HRT will facilitate complete mixing within the bioreactors. This will help maximize excess NO3- removal during large storm-induced runoff events.

Systematic investigations of intense convective precipitation events on European scale based on radar- and lightning-cell tracking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tüchler, Lukas; Meyer, Vera

2013-04-01

The new radar-data and lightning-data based automatic cell identification, tracking and nowcasting tool A-TNT (Austrian Thunderstorm Nowcasting Tool), which has been developed at ZAMG, has been applied to investigate the appearance of thunderstorms at Europe scale. Based on the ec-TRAM-method [1], the algorithm identifies and monitors regions of intense precipitation and lightning activity separately by analyzing sequential two-dimensional intensity maps of radar precipitation rate or lightning densities, respectively. Each data source is processed by a stand-alone identification, tracking and nowcasting procedure. The two tracking results are combined to a "main" cell in a final step. This approach allows that the output derived from the two data sources complement each other giving a more comprehensive picture about the current storm situation. So it is possible to distinguish between pure precipitation cells and thunderstorms, to observe regions, where one data source is not or poorly available, and to compensate for occasional data failures. Consequently, the combined cell-tracks are expected to be more consistent and the cell-tracking more robust. Input data for radar-cell tracking on European Scale is the OPERA radar-composite, which is provided every 15 minutes on a 2 km x 2 km grid, indicating the location and intensity of precipitation over Europe. For the lightning-cell tracking, the lightning-detection data of the EUCLID network is mapped on the OPERA grid. Every five minutes, flash density maps with recorded strokes are created and analyzed. This study will present a detailed investigation of the quality of the identification and tracking results using radar and lightning data. The improvements concerning the robustness and reliability of the cell tracking achieved by combining both data sources will be shown. Analyses about cell tracks and selected storm parameters like frequency, longevity and area will give insight into occurrence, appearance and impact of different severe precipitation events. These studies are performed to support the project HAREN (Hazard Assessment based on Rainfall European Nowcasts, funded by the EC Directorate General for Humanitarian Aid and Civil Protection), which has the objective to improve warnings for hazards induced by precipitation at local scale all over Europe. REFERENCES: [1] Meyer, V. K., H. Höller, and H. D. Betz 2012: Automated thunderstorm tracking and nowcasting: utilization of three-dimensional lightning and radar data. Manuscript accepted for publication in ACPD.

Interannual Variability in Global Dust Storm Initiation on Mars from a GCM with Orbit-Spin Coupling and Active Dust Lifting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mischna, M.; Shirley, J. H.; Newman, C. E.

2016-12-01

To first order, the occurrence and interannual variability of global dust storms (GDS) on Mars is attributable to two factors: the annual cycle of solar insolation (which delineates a specific `dust storm season'), and the changing spatial distribution and availability of dust at the surface. Recent work has now found a remarkable correspondence between the occurrence of GDS on Mars and years in which the orbital angular momentum of Mars is increasing during the dust storm season. A previously undefined acceleration term `couples' this orbital motion to the rotational motion of the planet and atmosphere, and small but persistent atmospheric accelerations (so-called `coupling term accelerations,' or CTA) change the atmospheric circulation in such a way as to seemingly be favorable to storm development. This becomes a third factor, then, that may regulate the occurrence and variability of GDS. Our prior work with the MarsWRF general circulation model (GCM) was performed either with no atmospheric dust, or with simplified, prescribed dust distributions, and illustrated the dual roles of both insolation and CTA on GDS variability. Recent advances in the MarsWRF GCM dust prescription can now tackle the remaining unaddressed factor: the role of dust availability in controlling the initiation of GDS. Simulations with both infinite and finite global sources of dust have been performed. For a prescribed dust lifting threshold, surface dust is removed from the surface, preferentially from locations with larger surface stress values, transported in the atmosphere and deposited at a later time. Compared to simulations without CTA, those with CTA show more realism in the variability of timing and magnitude of atmospheric dustiness during the dust storm season. For infinite surface dust, the primary dust lifting (peak wind stress) regions are spatially restricted, and year-to-year changes are largely due to variations in the CTA at these few locations. By contrast, in simulations with finite surface dust, the peak stress regions are rapidly exhausted, leading to a far greater distribution of primary dust lifting regions; hence, variations in the CTA over a wider area contribute to the interannual variability of GDS. Results from our suite of simulations will be shown, vis-à-vis the historical record of GDS on Mars.

A Midwinter Minimum in North Atlantic Storm Track Intensity in Years of a Strong Jet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afargan, H.; Kaspi, Y.

2017-12-01

This study investigates the occurrence of a midwinter suppression in synoptic eddy activity within the North Atlantic storm track. It is found that eddy kinetic energy over the Atlantic is reduced during winter relative to fall and spring, despite the stronger wintertime jet and enhanced baroclinicity. This behavior is similar to the well-known Pacific midwinter minimum, yet the reduction over the Atlantic is smaller and persists for a shorter period. To examine the conditions favorable for this phenomenon, we present an analysis of years with stronger jet intensity versus years of weaker jets over the Atlantic and Pacific basins. When the wintertime jet is stronger, the midwinter suppression of eddy activity is more pronounced, and the jet is more equatorward. Since the climatological Atlantic jet is weaker relative to the Pacific jet, the conditions for a midwinter suppression in the Atlantic are generally less favorable, yet a midwinter suppression often occurs in years of a strong jet.

Recent Atlantic Hurricanes, Pacific Super Typhoons, and Tropical Storm Awareness in Underdeveloped Island and Coastal Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Plondke, D. L.

2017-12-01

Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. in 12 years. The next tropical storm in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season was Hurricane Irma, a category 5 storm and the strongest storm to strike the U.S. mainland since Hurricane Wilma in 2005. These two storms were the third and fourth in a sequence of 10 consecutive storms to reach hurricane status in this season that ranks at least seventh among the most active seasons as measured by the Accumulate Cyclone Energy (ACE) index. Assessment of damage from Harvey may prove it to be the costliest storm in U.S. history, approaching $190 billion. Irma was the first category 5 hurricane to hit the Leeward Islands, devastating island environments including Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Barbuda, Saint Barthelemy, and Anguilla with sustained winds reaching at times 185 mph. Together with the two super typhoons of the 2017 Pacific season, Noru and Lan, the two Atlantic hurricanes rank among the strongest, longest-lasting tropical cyclones on record. How many more billions of dollars will be expended in recovery and reconstruction efforts following future mega-disasters comparable to those of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma? Particularly on Caribbean and tropical Pacific islands with specialized and underdeveloped economies, aging and substandard infrastructure often cannot even partially mitigate against the impacts of major hurricanes. The most frequently used measurements of storm impact are insufficient to assess the economic impact. Analysis of the storm tracks and periods of greatest storm intensity of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and Super Typhoons Lan and Noru, in spatial relationship with island and coastal administrative regions, shows that rainfall totals, flooded area estimates, and property/infrastructure damage dollar estimates are all quantitative indicators of storm impact, but do not measure the costs that result from lack of storm preparedness and education of residents about the urgency of climate change mitigation. Lacking in most of the island and coastal environments where major storms occur and are likely to occur more frequently in the future are educational opportunities and public dissemination of information about climate change forecasts, storm impact mitigation, and emergency preparedness.

Scintillation-Hardened GPS Receiver

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stephens, Donald R.

2015-01-01

CommLargo, Inc., has developed a scintillation-hardened Global Positioning System (GPS) receiver that improves reliability for low-orbit missions and complies with NASA's Space Telecommunications Radio System (STRS) architecture standards. A software-defined radio (SDR) implementation allows a single hardware element to function as either a conventional radio or as a GPS receiver, providing backup and redundancy for platforms such as the International Space Station (ISS) and high-value remote sensing platforms. The innovation's flexible SDR implementation reduces cost, weight, and power requirements. Scintillation hardening improves mission reliability and variability. In Phase I, CommLargo refactored an open-source GPS software package with Kalman filter-based tracking loops to improve performance during scintillation and also demonstrated improved navigation during a geomagnetic storm. In Phase II, the company generated a new field-programmable gate array (FPGA)-based GPS waveform to demonstrate on NASA's Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) test bed.

Identifying external influences on global precipitation

PubMed Central

Marvel, Kate; Bonfils, Céline

2013-01-01

Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle (“thermodynamic” changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt (“dynamic” changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities. PMID:24218561

Identifying external influences on global precipitation.

PubMed

Marvel, Kate; Bonfils, Céline

2013-11-26

Changes in global (ocean and land) precipitation are among the most important and least well-understood consequences of climate change. Increasing greenhouse gas concentrations are thought to affect the zonal-mean distribution of precipitation through two basic mechanisms. First, increasing temperatures will lead to an intensification of the hydrological cycle ("thermodynamic" changes). Second, changes in atmospheric circulation patterns will lead to poleward displacement of the storm tracks and subtropical dry zones and to a widening of the tropical belt ("dynamic" changes). We demonstrate that both these changes are occurring simultaneously in global precipitation, that this behavior cannot be explained by internal variability alone, and that external influences are responsible for the observed precipitation changes. Whereas existing model experiments are not of sufficient length to differentiate between natural and anthropogenic forcing terms at the 95% confidence level, we present evidence that the observed trends result from human activities.

Impact of TRMM and SSM/I Rainfall Assimilation on Global Analysis and QPF

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hou, Arthur; Zhang, Sara; Reale, Oreste

2002-01-01

Evaluation of QPF skills requires quantitatively accurate precipitation analyses. We show that assimilation of surface rain rates derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager and Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) improves quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) and many aspects of global analyses. Short-range forecasts initialized with analyses with satellite rainfall data generally yield significantly higher QPF threat scores and better storm track predictions. These results were obtained using a variational procedure that minimizes the difference between the observed and model rain rates by correcting the moist physics tendency of the forecast model over a 6h assimilation window. In two case studies of Hurricanes Bonnie and Floyd, synoptic analysis shows that this procedure produces initial conditions with better-defined tropical storm features and stronger precipitation intensity associated with the storm.

The relationship of storm severity to directionally resolved radio emissions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, R. O.; Bushman, M. L.; Sherrill, W. M.

1980-01-01

Directionally resolved atmospheric radio frequency emission data were acquired from thunderstorms occurring in the central and southwestern United States. In addition, RF sferic tracking data were obtained from hurricanes and tropical depressions occurring in the Gulf of Mexico. The data were acquired using a crossed baseline phase interferometer operating at a frequency of 2.001 MHz. The received atmospherics were tested for phase linearity across the array, and azimuth/elevation angles of arrival were computed in real time. A histogram analysis of sferic burst count versus azimuth provided lines of bearing to centers of intense electrical activity. Analysis indicates a consistent capability of the phase linear direction finder to detect severe meteorological activity to distances of 2000 km from the receiving site. The technique evidences the ability to discriminate severe storms from nonsevere storms coexistent in large regional scale thunderstorm activity.

In situ measurements and radar observations of a severe storm - Electricity, kinematics, and precipitation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Byrne, G. J.; Few, A. A.; Stewart, M. F.; Conrad, A. C.; Torczon, R. L.

1987-01-01

Electric field measurements made inside a multicell severe storm in Oklahoma in 1983 with a balloon-borne instrument are presented. The properties of the electric charge regions, such as altitude, thickness, and charge concentrations, are studied. These measurements are analzyed with meteorological measurements of temperature and humidity, and balloon tracking and radar observations. The relation between the electric charge structure and the precipitation and kinematic features of the storm is examined. The data reveal that the cell exhibits a bipolar charge structure with negative charge below positive charge. The average charge concentrations of the two regions are estimated as -1.2 and 0.15 nC/cu m, respectively; the upper positive charge is about 6 km in vertical extent, and the lower negative charge is less than 1 km in vertical extent.

An updated climatology of explosive cyclones using alternative measures of cyclone intensity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hanley, J.; Caballero, R.

2009-04-01

Using a novel cyclone tracking and identification method, we compute a climatology of explosively intensifying cyclones or ‘bombs' using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim datasets. Traditionally, ‘bombs' have been identified using a central pressure deepening rate criterion (Sanders and Gyakum, 1980). We investigate alternative methods of capturing such extreme cyclones. These methods include using the maximum wind contained within the cyclone, and using a potential vorticity column measure within such systems, as a measure of intensity. Using the different measures of cyclone intensity, we construct and intercompare maps of peak cyclone intensity. We also compute peak intensity probability distributions, and assess the evidence for the bi-modal distribution found by Roebber (1984). Finally, we address the question of the relationship between storm intensification rate and storm destructiveness: are ‘bombs' the most destructive storms?

Characteristics of different convective parameterization schemes on the simulation of intensity and track of severe extratropical cyclones over North Atlantic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pradhan, P. K.; Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Ferreira, Juan A.; Dasamsetti, S.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.

2018-01-01

The role of the convective parameterization schemes (CPSs) in the ARW-WRF (WRF) mesoscale model is examined for extratropical cyclones (ETCs) over the North Atlantic Ocean. The simulation of very severe winter storms such as Xynthia (2010) and Gong (2013) are considered in this study. Most popular CPSs within WRF model, along with Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer (PBL) and WSM6 microphysical parameterization schemes are incorporated for the model experiments. For each storm, four numerical experiments were carried out using New Kain Fritsch (NKF), Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ), Grell 3D Ensemble (Gr3D) and no convection scheme (NCS) respectively. The prime objectives of these experiments were to recognize the best CPS that can forecast the intensity, track, and landfall over the Iberian Peninsula in advance of two days. The WRF model results such as central sea level pressure (CSLP), wind field, moisture flux convergence, geopotential height, jet stream, track and precipitation have shown sensitivity CPSs. The 48-hour lead simulations with BMJ schemes produce the best simulations both regarding ETCs intensity and track than Gr3D and NKF schemes. The average MAE and RMSE of intensities are least that (6.5 hPa in CSLP and 3.4 ms- 1 in the 10-m wind) found in BMJ scheme. The MAE and RMSE for and intensity and track error have revealed that NCS produces large errors than other CPSs experiments. However, for track simulation of these ETCs, at 72-, 48- and 24-hour means track errors were 440, 390 and 158 km respectively. In brevity, BMJ and Gr3D schemes can be used for short and medium range predictions of the ETCs over North Atlantic. For the evaluation of precipitation distributions using Gr3D scheme are good agreement with TRMM satellite than other CPSs.

Clustering of European winter storms: A multi-model perspective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renggli, Dominik; Buettner, Annemarie; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel; Zimmerli, Peter

2016-04-01

The storm series over Europe in 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke, Herta) and 1999 (Anatol, Lothar, Martin) are very well known. Such clusters of severe events strongly affect the seasonally accumulated damage statistics. The (re)insurance industry has quantified clustering by using distribution assumptions deduced from the historical storm activity of the last 30 to 40 years. The use of storm series simulated by climate models has only started recently. Climate model runs can potentially represent 100s to 1000s of years, allowing a more detailed quantification of clustering than the history of the last few decades. However, it is unknown how sensitive the representation of clustering is to systematic biases. Using a multi-model ensemble allows quantifying that uncertainty. This work uses CMIP5 decadal ensemble hindcasts to study clustering of European winter storms from a multi-model perspective. An objective identification algorithm extracts winter storms (September to April) in the gridded 6-hourly wind data. Since the skill of European storm predictions is very limited on the decadal scale, the different hindcast runs are interpreted as independent realizations. As a consequence, the available hindcast ensemble represents several 1000 simulated storm seasons. The seasonal clustering of winter storms is quantified using the dispersion coefficient. The benchmark for the decadal prediction models is the 20th Century Reanalysis. The decadal prediction models are able to reproduce typical features of the clustering characteristics observed in the reanalysis data. Clustering occurs in all analyzed models over the North Atlantic and European region, in particular over Great Britain and Scandinavia as well as over Iberia (i.e. the exit regions of the North Atlantic storm track). Clustering is generally weaker in the models compared to reanalysis, although the differences between different models are substantial. In contrast to existing studies, clustering is driven by weak and moderate events, and not by extreme storms. Thus, the decision which climate model to use to quantify clustering can have a substantial impact on the risk assessment in the (re)insurance business.

Establishing Design Storm Values from Climate Models in Coastal Regions: Challenges and Opportunities

EPA Science Inventory

Dynamic interactions of atmospheric and hydrological processes result in large spatiotemporal changes of precipitation and wind speed in coastal storm events under both current and future climates. This variability can impact the design and sustainability of water infrastructure ...

Scientists Track 'Perfect Storm' on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2001-01-01

Two dramatically different faces of our Red Planet neighbor appear in these comparison images showing how a global dust storm engulfed Mars with the onset of Martian spring in the Southern Hemisphere. When NASA's Hubble Space Telescope imaged Mars in June, the seeds of the storm were caught brewing in the giant Hellas Basin (oval at 4 o'clock position on disk) and in another storm at the northern polar cap.

When Hubble photographed Mars in early September, the storm had already been raging across the planet for nearly two months obscuring all surface features. The fine airborne dust blocks a significant amount of sunlight from reaching the Martian surface. Because the airborne dust is absorbing this sunlight, it heats the upper atmosphere. Seasonal global Mars dust storms have been observed from telescopes for over a century, but this is the biggest storm ever seen in the past several decades.

Mars looks gibbous in the right photograph because it is 26 million miles farther from Earth than in the left photo (though the pictures have been scaled to the same angular size), and our viewing angle has changed. The left picture was taken when Mars was near its closest approach to Earth for 2001 (an event called opposition); at that point the disk of Mars was fully illuminated as seen from Earth because Mars was exactly opposite the Sun.

Both images are in natural color, taken with Hubble's Wide Field Planetary Camera 2.

Reversing storm hotspots on sandy beaches: Spatial and temporal characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

List, J.H.; Farris, A.S.; Sullivan, C.

2006-01-01

Coastal erosion hotspots are defined as sections of coast that exhibit significantly higher rates of erosion than adjacent areas. This paper describes the spatial and temporal characteristics of a recently identified type of coastal erosion hotspot, which forms in response to storms on uninterrupted sandy coasts largely free from human intervention. These are referred to here as reversing storm hotspots because the erosion is reversed by accretion of a similar magnitude to the storm-induced erosion. The accretion occurs within a few days or weeks of fair weather after the storm. Reversing storm hotspots observed here, on two US east coast beaches, have a longshore length averaging 3.86 km, a cross-shore excursion (magnitude of erosion or accretion) averaging 15.4 m, and a time scale of days to weeks associated with individual storm events. These spatial and temporal scales clearly distinguish reversing storm hotspots from previously described forms of longshore variability in erosion, including those attributed to several types of shoreline undulations and hotspots associated with long-term shoreline change. 

Improvement of Storm Forecasts Using Gridded Bayesian Linear Regression for Northeast United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Schwartz, C. S.

2017-12-01

Bayesian linear regression (BLR) is a post-processing technique in which regression coefficients are derived and used to correct raw forecasts based on pairs of observation-model values. This study presents the development and application of a gridded Bayesian linear regression (GBLR) as a new post-processing technique to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) of rain and wind storm forecasts over northeast United States. Ten controlled variables produced from ten ensemble members of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) real-time prediction system are used for a GBLR model. In the GBLR framework, leave-one-storm-out cross-validation is utilized to study the performances of the post-processing technique in a database composed of 92 storms. To estimate the regression coefficients of the GBLR, optimization procedures that minimize the systematic and random error of predicted atmospheric variables (wind speed, precipitation, etc.) are implemented for the modeled-observed pairs of training storms. The regression coefficients calculated for meteorological stations of the National Weather Service are interpolated back to the model domain. An analysis of forecast improvements based on error reductions during the storms will demonstrate the value of GBLR approach. This presentation will also illustrate how the variances are optimized for the training partition in GBLR and discuss the verification strategy for grid points where no observations are available. The new post-processing technique is successful in improving wind speed and precipitation storm forecasts using past event-based data and has the potential to be implemented in real-time.

Orbit-spin coupling and the interannual variability of global-scale dust storm occurrence on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirley, James H.; Mischna, Michael A.

2017-05-01

A new physical hypothesis predicts that a weak coupling of the orbital and rotational motions of extended bodies may give rise to a modulation of circulatory flows within their atmospheres. Driven cycles of intensification and relaxation of large-scale circulatory flows are predicted, with the phasing of these changes linked directly to the rate of change of the orbital angular momentum, dL/dt, with respect to inertial frames. We test the hypothesis that global-scale dust storms (GDS) on Mars may occur when periods of circulatory intensification (associated with positive and negative extrema of the dL/dt waveform) coincide with the southern summer dust storm season on Mars. The orbit-spin coupling hypothesis additionally predicts that the intervening 'transitional' periods, which are characterized by the disappearance and subsequent sign change of dL/dt, may be unfavorable for the occurrence of GDS, when they occur during the southern summer dust storm season. These hypotheses are strongly supported by comparisons between calculated dynamical time series of dL/dt and historic observations. All of the nine known global-scale dust storms on Mars took place during Mars years when circulatory intensification during the dust storm season is 'retrodicted' under the orbit-spin coupling hypothesis. None of the historic global-scale dust storms of our catalog occurred during transitional intervals. Orbit-spin coupling appears to play an important role in the excitation of the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation of Mars.

Extreme storm surge and wind wave climate scenario simulations at the Venetian littoral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lionello, P.; Galati, M. B.; Elvini, E.

Scenario climate projections for extreme marine storms producing storm surges and wind waves are very important for the northern flat coast of the Adriatic Sea, where the area at risk includes a unique cultural and environmental heritage, and important economic activities. This study uses a shallow water model and a spectral wave model for computing the storm surge and the wind wave field, respectively, from the sea level pressure and wind fields that have been computed by the RegCM regional climate model. Simulations cover the period 1961-1990 for the present climate (control simulations) and the period 2071-2100 for the A2 and B2 scenarios. Generalized Extreme Value analysis is used for estimating values for the 10 and 100 year return times. The adequacy of these modeling tools for a reliable estimation of the climate change signal, without needing further downscaling is shown. However, this study has mainly a methodological value, because issues such as interdecadal variability and intermodel variability cannot be addressed, since the analysis is based on single model 30-year long simulations. The control simulation looks reasonably accurate for extreme value analysis, though it overestimates/underestimates the frequency of high/low surge and wind wave events with respect to observations. Scenario simulations suggest higher frequency of intense storms for the B2 scenario, but not for the A2. Likely, these differences are not the effect of climate change, but of climate multidecadal variability. Extreme storms are stronger in future scenarios, but differences are not statistically significant. Therefore this study does not provide convincing evidence for more stormy conditions in future scenarios.

Deciphering storm-event runoff behavior in a coastal plain watershed using chemical and physical hydrograph separation techniques

Treesearch

Timothy Callahan; Austin E. Morrison

2016-01-01

Interpreting storm-event runoff in coastal plain watersheds is challenging because of the space- and time-variable nature of different sources that contribute to stream flow. These flow vectors and the magnitude of water flux is dependent on the pre-storm soil moisture (as estimated from depth to water table) in the lower coastal plain (LCP) region.

Storm surge and tidal range energy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lewis, Matthew; Angeloudis, Athanasios; Robins, Peter; Evans, Paul; Neill, Simon

2017-04-01

The need to reduce carbon-based energy sources whilst increasing renewable energy forms has led to concerns of intermittency within a national electricity supply strategy. The regular rise and fall of the tide makes prediction almost entirely deterministic compared to other stochastic renewable energy forms; therefore, tidal range energy is often stated as a predictable and firm renewable energy source. Storm surge is the term used for the non-astronomical forcing of tidal elevation, and is synonymous with coastal flooding because positive storm surges can elevate water-levels above the height of coastal flood defences. We hypothesis storm surges will affect the reliability of the tidal range energy resource; with negative surge events reducing the tidal range, and conversely, positive surge events increasing the available resource. Moreover, tide-surge interaction, which results in positive storm surges more likely to occur on a flooding tide, will reduce the annual tidal range energy resource estimate. Water-level data (2000-2012) at nine UK tide gauges, where the mean tidal amplitude is above 2.5m and thus suitable for tidal-range energy development (e.g. Bristol Channel), were used to predict tidal range power with a 0D modelling approach. Storm surge affected the annual resource estimate by between -5% to +3%, due to inter-annual variability. Instantaneous power output were significantly affected (Normalised Root Mean Squared Error: 3%-8%, Scatter Index: 15%-41%) with spatial variability and variability due to operational strategy. We therefore find a storm surge affects the theoretical reliability of tidal range power, such that a prediction system may be required for any future electricity generation scenario that includes large amounts of tidal-range energy; however, annual resource estimation from astronomical tides alone appears sufficient for resource estimation. Future work should investigate water-level uncertainties on the reliability and predictability of tidal range energy with 2D hydrodynamic models.

Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Position Analysis Using Passive Microwave Imager and Sounder Data

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-03-26

NPP) Advanced Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) for a sample of 28 North Atlantic storms from the 2011 through 2013 TC seasons . Using a stepwise...58 27. NOAA NHC 2011 TC Season Tracks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61 28...per Season and TCs with Aircraft Reconnaissance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40

Cryptosporidium Source Tracking in the Potomac River Watershed

EPA Science Inventory

To better characterize the presence of Cryptosporidium in the Potomac River watershed, a PCR-based genotyping tool was used to analyze 64 base-flow and 28 storm-flow samples from five sites within the watershed. These sites included two water treatment plant intakes as well as t...

Evaluating the effectiveness of best management practices and green infrastructure in the State of California

EPA Science Inventory

Since 2010, the State of California has required construction operators to utilize the electronic Storm Water Application and Report Tracking System (SMARTS) for construction projects covered by the General Construction Permit. The General Construction permit encourages BMP and G...

Relationships and trends of E. Coli, human-associated Bacteroides, and pathogens in the Proctor Creek Watershed

EPA Science Inventory

Urban surface waters can be impacted by anthropogenic sources such as impervious surfaces, sanitary and storm sewers, and failing infrastructure. Fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and microbial source tracking (MST) markers are common gauges of stream water quality, however, little...

Cryptosporidium source tracking in the Potomac River watershed - MCEARD

EPA Science Inventory

To better characterize Cryptosporidium in the Potomac River watershed, a PCR-based genotyping tool was used to analyze 64 base-flow and 28 storm-flow samples from five sites within the watershed. These sites included two water treatment plant intakes as well as three upstream si...

Investigating Added Value of Regional Climate Modeling in North American Winter Storm Track Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Poan, E.; Gachon, P., Sr.; Laprise, R.; Aider, R.; Dueymes, G.

2017-12-01

This study describes a framework using possibilities given by regional climate models (RCMs) to gain insight into extratropical cyclone (EC) activity during winter over North America (NA). Recent past climate period (1981 - 2005) is firstly considered using the NCEP regional reanalysis (NARR) as a reference, along with the European global reanalysis ERA-Interim (ERAI) and two CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) used to drive the Canadian RCM - version 5 (CRCM5) and the corresponding regional-scale simulations. While ERAI and GCM simulations show basic agreement with NARR in terms of climatological EC track patterns, detailed bias analyses show that, on the one hand, ERAI presents statistically significant positive biases in terms of EC genesis and therefore occurrence while their intensity is well captured. On the other hand, GCMs present large negative intensity biases in the overall NA domain and particularly over the eastern coast. In addition, storm occurrence from GCMs over the northwestern topographic regions is highly overestimated. When the CRCM5 is driven by ERAI, no significant skill deterioration arises and, more importantly, all storm characteristics near areas with main relief and over regions with large water masses are significantly improved with respect to ERAI. Conversely, in GCM-driven simulations, the added value from the CRCM5 is less prominent and systematic, except over western areas with high topography and over the Western Atlantic coastlines where the most frequent and intense ECs are located. Finally, time period near the end of the 21st century (2071-2100) is considered to analyze EC characteristic trends and changes relative to the current climate conditions, showing important modifications in storm activity for certain winter months, especially in term of intensity over the eastern coast.

The NASA CYGNSS Satellite Constellation for Tropical Cyclone Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruf, C. S.; Provost, D.; Rose, R.; Scherrer, J.; Atlas, R. M.; Chang, P.; Clarizia, M. P.; Garrison, J. L.; Gleason, S.; Katzberg, S. J.; Jelenak, Z.; Johnson, J. T.; Majumdar, S.; O'Brien, A.; Posselt, D. J.; Ridley, A. J.; Said, F.; Soisuvarn, S.; Zavorotny, V. U.

2016-12-01

The NASA Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) is scheduled for launch in November 2016 to study the surface wind structure in and near the inner core of tropical cyclones. CYGNSS consists of a constellation of eight observatories carried into orbit on a single launch vehicle. Each observatory carries a 4-channel bistatic radar receiver tuned to receive GPS navigation signals scattered from the ocean surface. The eight satellites are spaced approximately twelve minutes apart in a common circular, low inclination orbit plane to provide frequent temporal sampling in the tropics. The 35deg orbit inclination results in coverage of the full globe between 38deg N and 38deg S latitude with a median(mean) revisit time of 3(7) hours The 32 CYGNSS radars operate in L-Band at a wavelength of 19 cm. This allows for adequate penetration to enable surface wind observations under all levels of precipitation, including those encountered in the inner core and eyewall of tropical cyclones. The combination of operation unaffected by heavy precipitation together with high temporal resolution throughout the life cycle of storms is expected to support significant improvements in the forecast skill of storm track and intensity, as well as better situational awareness of the extent and structure of storms in near real time. A summary of the properties of the CYGNSS science data products will be presented, together with an update on the results of ongoing Observation System Simulation Experiments performed by members of the CYGNSS science team over the past four years, in particular addressing the expected impact on storm track and intensity forecast skill. With launch scheduled for the month prior to AGU, the on orbit status of the constellation will also be presented.

Three Years of TRMM Precipitation Features. Part 1; Radar, Radiometric, and Lightning Characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Goodman, Steven J.; Boccippio, Dennis J.; Zipser, Edward J.; Nesbitt, Stephen W.

2004-01-01

During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity, areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%, and remaining 97.6%. The set of 'weakest / smallest' features comprises 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate 0.7 fl/min. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl/min; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85-GHz) and 69 K (37- GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335,000 sq km and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10(exp 12) kg of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations, seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land / Ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and Ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms, and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.

Three Years of TRMM Precipitation Features. Part 1; Radar, Radiometric, and Lightning Characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cecil, Daniel J.; Goodman, Steven J.; Boccippio, Dennis J.; Zipser, Edward J.; Nesbitt, Stephen W.

2005-01-01

During its first three years, the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observed nearly six million precipitation features. The population of precipitation features is sorted by lightning flash rate, minimum brightness temperature, maximum radar reflectivity. areal extent, and volumetric rainfall. For each of these characteristics, essentially describing the convective intensity or the size of the features, the population is broken into categories consisting of the top 0.001%, top 0.01%, top 0.1%, top 1%, top 2.4%. and remaining 97.6%. The set of weakest/smallest features composes 97.6% of the population because that fraction does not have detected lightning, with a minimum detectable flash rate of 0.7 flashes (fl) per minute. The greatest observed flash rate is 1351 fl per minute; the lowest brightness temperatures are 42 K (85 GHz) and 69 K (37 GHz). The largest precipitation feature covers 335 000 square kilometers and the greatest rainfall from an individual precipitation feature exceeds 2 x 10 kg per hour of water. There is considerable overlap between the greatest storms according to different measures of convective intensity. The largest storms are mostly independent of the most intense storms. The set of storms producing the most rainfall is a convolution of the largest and the most intense storms. This analysis is a composite of the global Tropics and subtropics. Significant variability is known to exist between locations. seasons, and meteorological regimes. Such variability will be examined in Part II. In Part I, only a crude land-ocean separation is made. The known differences in bulk lightning flash rates over land and ocean result from at least two differences in the precipitation feature population: the frequency of occurrence of intense storms and the magnitude of those intense storms that do occur. Even when restricted to storms with the same brightness temperature, same size, or same radar reflectivity aloft, the storms over water are considerably less likely to produce lightning than are comparable storms over land.

Impact of parameterization of physical processes on simulation of track and intensity of tropical cyclone Nargis (2008) with WRF-NMM model.

PubMed

Pattanayak, Sujata; Mohanty, U C; Osuri, Krishna K

2012-01-01

The present study is carried out to investigate the performance of different cumulus convection, planetary boundary layer, land surface processes, and microphysics parameterization schemes in the simulation of a very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) Nargis (2008), developed in the central Bay of Bengal on 27 April 2008. For this purpose, the nonhydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM) dynamic core of weather research and forecasting (WRF) system is used. Model-simulated track positions and intensity in terms of minimum central mean sea level pressure (MSLP), maximum surface wind (10 m), and precipitation are verified with observations as provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM). The estimated optimum combination is reinvestigated with six different initial conditions of the same case to have better conclusion on the performance of WRF-NMM. A few more diagnostic fields like vertical velocity, vorticity, and heat fluxes are also evaluated. The results indicate that cumulus convection play an important role in the movement of the cyclone, and PBL has a crucial role in the intensification of the storm. The combination of Simplified Arakawa Schubert (SAS) convection, Yonsei University (YSU) PBL, NMM land surface, and Ferrier microphysics parameterization schemes in WRF-NMM give better track and intensity forecast with minimum vector displacement error.

Short-interval SMS wind vector determinations for a severe local storms area

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peslen, C. A.

1980-01-01

Short-interval SMS-2 visible digital image data are used to derive wind vectors from cloud tracking on time-lapsed sequences of geosynchronous satellite images. The cloud tracking areas are located in the Central Plains, where on May 6, 1975 hail-producing thunderstorms occurred ahead of a well defined dry line. Cloud tracking is performed on the Goddard Space Flight Center Atmospheric and Oceanographic Information Processing System. Lower tropospheric cumulus tracers are selected with the assistance of a cloud-top height algorithm. Divergence is derived from the cloud motions using a modified Cressman (1959) objective analysis technique which is designed to organize irregularly spaced wind vectors into uniformly gridded wind fields. The results demonstrate the feasibility of using satellite-derived wind vectors and their associated divergence fields in describing the conditions preceding severe local storm development. For this case, an area of convergence appeared ahead of the dry line and coincided with the developing area of severe weather. The magnitude of the maximum convergence varied between -10 to the -5th and -10 to the -14th per sec. The number of satellite-derived wind vectors which were required to describe conditions of the low-level atmosphere was adequate before numerous cumulonimbus cells formed. This technique is limited in areas of advanced convection.

How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Peng; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Zhu, Jianting; Yu, Zhongbo

2013-02-01

SummaryMulti-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability.

Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to Modeling Tornado Impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wagner, M.; Doe, R. K.

2017-12-01

Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) to assess storm damage is a useful research tool. Benefits include their ability to access remote or impassable areas post-storm, identify unknown damages and assist with more detailed site investigations and rescue efforts. Technological advancement of UAVs mean that they can capture high resolution images often at an affordable price. These images can be used to create 3D environments to better interpret and delineate damages from large areas that would have been difficult in ground surveys. This research presents the results of a rapid response site investigation of the 29 April 2017 Canton, Texas, USA, tornado using low cost UAVs. This was a multiple, high impact tornado event measuring EF4 at maximum. Rural farmland was chosen as a challenging location to test both equipment and methodology. Such locations provide multiple impacts at a variety of scales including structural and vegetation damage and even animal fatalities. The 3D impact models allow for a more comprehensive study prior to clean-up. The results show previously unseen damages and better quantify damage impacts at the local level. 3D digital track swaths were created allowing for a more accurate track width determination. These results demonstrate how effective the use of low cost UAVs can be for rapid response storm damage assessments, the high quality of data they can achieve, and how they can help us better visualize tornado site investigations.

Assessing the impact of cyclones in the coastal zone of Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolf, Judith; Bricheno, Lucy; Chowdury, Shahad; Rahman, Munsur; Ghosh, Tuhin; Kay, Susan; Caesar, John

2014-05-01

We review the state of knowledge regarding tropical cyclones and their impacts on coastal ecosystems, as well as the livelihood and health of the coastal communities, under the present and future climate, with application to the coastal zone of Bangladesh. This region is particularly vulnerable to tropical cyclones as it is very low-lying and densely populated. Cyclones cause damage due to the high wind speed and also the ensuing storm surge, which causes inundation and salinity intrusion into agricultural land and contaminates fresh water. The world's largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans, protects the coast of the Brahmaputra-Ganges-Meghna (BGM) delta from these cyclonic storms but mangroves are themselves vulnerable to cyclone damage, as in 2007 when ~36% of the mangrove area was severely damaged leading to further losses of livelihood. We apply an idealised cyclone model and use the winds and pressures from this model to drive a storm surge model in the Bay of Bengal, in order to examine the impact of the intensity, track speed and landfall of the cyclones in terms of surge and inundation. The model is tested by reproducing the track and intensity of Cyclone Sidr of 2007. We also examine the projected future climate from the South Asia Regional Climate Model to understand how tropical cyclones may change under global warming and assess how this may impact the BGM Delta over the 21st century.

Climate change and dead zones.

PubMed

Altieri, Andrew H; Gedan, Keryn B

2015-04-01

Estuaries and coastal seas provide valuable ecosystem services but are particularly vulnerable to the co-occurring threats of climate change and oxygen-depleted dead zones. We analyzed the severity of climate change predicted for existing dead zones, and found that 94% of dead zones are in regions that will experience at least a 2 °C temperature increase by the end of the century. We then reviewed how climate change will exacerbate hypoxic conditions through oceanographic, ecological, and physiological processes. We found evidence that suggests numerous climate variables including temperature, ocean acidification, sea-level rise, precipitation, wind, and storm patterns will affect dead zones, and that each of those factors has the potential to act through multiple pathways on both oxygen availability and ecological responses to hypoxia. Given the variety and strength of the mechanisms by which climate change exacerbates hypoxia, and the rates at which climate is changing, we posit that climate change variables are contributing to the dead zone epidemic by acting synergistically with one another and with recognized anthropogenic triggers of hypoxia including eutrophication. This suggests that a multidisciplinary, integrated approach that considers the full range of climate variables is needed to track and potentially reverse the spread of dead zones. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An index of anomalous convective instability to detect tornadic and hail storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qian, Weihong; Leung, Jeremy Cheuk-Hin; Luo, Weimeng; Du, Jun; Gao, Jidong

2017-12-01

In this article, the synoptic-scale spatial structures for raising tornadic and hail storms are compared by analyzing the total and anomalous variable fields from the troposphere to the stratosphere. 15 cases of tornado outbreaks and 20 cases of hail storms that occurred in the central United States during 1980-2011 were studied. The anomalous temperature-height field shows that a tornadic or hail storm usually occurs at the boundary of anomalous warm and cold air masses horizontally in the troposphere. In one side, an anomalous warm air mass in the mid-low troposphere and an anomalous cold air mass in the stratosphere are vertically separated by a positive center of height anomalies at the upper troposphere. In another side, an opposite vertical pattern shows that an anomalous cold air mass in the mid-low troposphere and an anomalous warm air mass in the stratosphere are separated by a negative center of height anomalies at the upper troposphere. Therefore, two pairs of adjacent anomalous warm/cold centers and one pair of anomalous high/low centers combining together form a major tornadic or hail storm paradigm, which can be physically considered as the storage of anomalous potential energy (APE) to generate severe weather. To quantitatively measure the APE, we define an index of anomalous convective instability (ACI) which is a difference of integrating temperature anomalies based on two vertically opposite anomalous air masses. The APE transformation to anomalous kinetic energy, which reduces horizontal and vertical gradients of temperature anomalies, produces anomalous rising and sinking flows in the lower-layer anomalous warm and cold air mass sides, respectively. The intensity of ACI index for tornadic storm cases is 1.5 times larger than that of hail storm cases in average. Thus, this expression of anomalous variables is better than total variables used in the traditional synoptic chart and the ACI index is better than other indices to detect potential tornadic and hail storms in order to understand the environmental conditions affecting severe weather in analytical and model output datasets.

Northwest Pacific typhoons documented by the Philippine Jesuits, 1566-1900

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

GarcíA-Herrera, Ricardo; Ribera, Pedro; HernáNdez, Emiliano; Gimeno, Luis

2007-03-01

In recent years, the population and the value of properties in areas prone to tropical cyclone (TC) have increased dramatically. This has caused more attention to be placed on the characterization of TC climatologies and the identification of the role that factors such as the main teleconnection patterns may play in TC variability. Due to the timescales involved, the instrumental records have proven too short to provide a complete picture. Thus, documentary and other paleoclimatological techniques have been used to reconstruct TC occurrence. This has been done mostly for the Atlantic basin, whereas in the Pacific basin, fewer attempts have been made. The aim of this paper is to provide a high-resolution chronology of typhoons and intense storms occurring in the Philippine Islands and their vicinity for the period 1566-1900. The chronology is based upon the writings of the Spanish Jesuit Miguel Selga, who produced the original work at the beginning of the 20th century. The sources, reliability, and completeness of the chronology are examined critically. A total of 652 events are included, 524 of which are reported as typhoons, the rest being considered as tropical storms. For each of these classes, the landfall location and the track (when sufficient information is available) have been drawn. This chronology is an indispensable step toward a final and complete typhoon record in the western Pacific basin.

Interannual variability of planet-encircling dust storms on Mars

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zurek, Richard W.; Martin, Leonard J.

1993-01-01

A recent review of earth-based telescopic observations of Mars together with Viking orbiter and lander data are employed to estimate the frequency of occurrence of planet-encircling dust storms over the past century and to test whether the period spanned by the Mariner 9 and Viking missions to Mars is representative of the decades prior to 1950. Both spacecraft and earth-based observations suggest that planet-encircling dust storms on Mars occur during a 'dust storm season' in southern spring and summer. Viking data show that planet-encircling dust storms could have occurred in the past on Mars without being detected from earth during years in which Mars was far from earth during the dust storm season. Planet-encircling storms were absent during the dust storm seasons monitored during several favorable oppositions prior to 1956 and after 1986. The change of a planet-encircling dust storm occurring in any arbitrary Mars year is estimated to be approximately one in three, if this occurrence is random from year to year and yet restricted seasonally to southern spring and summer.

HYDRAULIC ANALYSIS OF BASEFLOW AND BANK STORAGE IN ALLUVIAL STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents analytical solutions, which describe the effect of time-variable net recharge (net accretion to water table) and bank storage in alluvial aquifers on the sustenance of stream flows during storm and inter-storm events. The solutions relate the stream discharge,...

Hurricane Sandy: observations and analysis of coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sopkin, Kristin L.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Doran, Kara S.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Morgan, Karen L.M.; Guy, Kristy K.; Smith, Kathryn E.L.

2014-01-01

Hurricane Sandy, the largest Atlantic hurricane on record, made landfall on October 29, 2012, and impacted a long swath of the U.S. Atlantic coastline. The barrier islands were breached in a number of places and beach and dune erosion occurred along most of the Mid-Atlantic coast. As a part of the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards project, the U.S. Geological Survey collected post-Hurricane Sandy oblique aerial photography and lidar topographic surveys to document the changes that occurred as a result of the storm. Comparisons of post-storm photographs to those collected prior to Sandy’s landfall were used to characterize the nature, magnitude, and spatial variability of hurricane-induced coastal changes. Analysis of pre- and post-storm lidar elevations was used to quantify magnitudes of change in shoreline position, dune elevation, and beach width. Erosion was observed along the coast from North Carolina to New York; however, as would be expected over such a large region, extensive spatial variability in storm response was observed.

A Thermodynamic, kinematic and microphysical analysis of a jet and gigantic jet-producing Florida thunderstorm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarus, S. M.; Splitt, M. E.; Brownlee, James; Spiva, Nicholas; Liu, Ningyu

2015-08-01

This paper presents a meteorological analysis of a storm that produced two jets, four gigantic jets (GJ), and a starter, which were observed by two radars as well as the Kennedy Space Center 4-Dimensional Lightning Surveillance System on 3 August 2013 in Central Florida. The work is the first application of dual polarization data to a jet-producing storm and is the fifth case related to a tropical disturbance. The storm environment is consistent with the moist tropical paradigm that characterizes about three quarters of the surface and aircraft observed jet and GJ events. The most unstable (MU) convective available potential energy is not unusual for Florida summer convection and is below the climatological mean for these events. An unusual speed shear layer is located near the storm equilibrium level (EL) and the storm exhibits a tilted structure with CGs displaced upshear. The turbulence, as measured by the eddy dissipation rate, is extreme near the storm top during the event window, consistent with the GJ mixing hypothesis. The individual events are collocated with, and track along, the center axis of the divergent outflow at the EL and occur within the region of the coldest GOES IR temperatures—placing the events within the overshoot. The dual polarization data indicate a deep graupel column, extending above the mixed phase layer, to a 13 km altitude.

Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream (SAPS) Events Under Non-storm Conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sazykin, S. Y.; Coster, A. J.; Huba, J.; Spiro, R. W.; Baker, J. B.; Kunduri, B.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.; Erickson, P. J.; Wolf, R.

2017-12-01

The occurrence of Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream, or SAPS, structures, defined here as latitudinally narrow channels of enhanced westward plasma convection in the evening ionosphere equatorward of the auroral electron precipitation boundary, is most dramatic during geomagnetic storms. However, SAPS-like structures known as Polarization Jets or SAIDs (Sub-Auroral Ion Drift events) are also frequently observed during non-storm conditions, typically during periods of isolated substorm activity or during bursts of enhanced convection associated with southward IMF Bz component. This paper presents results from data analysis and numerical simulations of several SAPS/SAID events observed during non-storm conditions. We use convection velocity measurements from the mid-latitude chain of SuperDARN radars and cross-track drift meter data from DMSP spacecraft to identify SAPS/SAID and to characterize their structure and temporal evolution. DMSP topside ion density data and high-resolution ground-based GPS total electron content (TEC) maps are used to determine the ionospheric and plasmaspheric morphology of SAPS regions. DMSP electron precipitation data are used to determine auroral boundaries. We also present simulation results of the chosen event intervals obtained with the SAMI3-RCM ionosphere-magnetosphere coupled model. Observational results are analyzed to identify systematic differences between non-storm SAPS/SAID and the picture that has emerged based on previous storm time studies. Simulation results are used to provide physical interpretation of these differences.

Drastic shifts in the Levant hydroclimate during the last interglacial indicate changes in the tropical climate and winter storm tracks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kiro, Y.; Goldstein, S. L.; Kushnir, Y.; Lazar, B.; Stein, M.

2017-12-01

Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e was a warm interglacial with where with significantly varying insolation and hence varied significantly throughout this time suggesting highly variable climate. The ICDP Dead Sea Deep Drilling Project recovered a 460m record of the past 220ka, reflecting the variable climate along MIS 5e. This time interval is reflected by alternating halite and detritus sequences, including 20m of halite-free detritus during the peak insolation at 125 ka. The Dead Sea salt budget indicates that the Levant climate was extremely arid when halite formed, reaching 20% of the present runoff. The halite-free detritus layer reflects increased precipitation to levels similar to present day, assuming similar spatial and temporal rainfall patterns. However, the 234U/238U activity ratio in the lake, reflected by authigenic minerals (aragonite, gypsum and halite), shifts from values of 1.5 (reflecting the Jordan River, the present main water source) down to 1.3 at 125-122ka during the MIS5e insolation peak and 1.0 at 118-116ka. The low 234U/238U reflects increased flash floods and eastern water sources (234U/238U 1.05-1.2) from the drier part of the watershed in the desert belt. The intermediate 234U/238U of 1.3 suggests that the Jordan River, fed from Mediterranean-sourced storm tracks, continued to flow along with an increase in southern and eastern water sources. NCAR CCSM3 climate model runs for 125ka indicate increases in both Summer and Winter precipitation. The drastic decrease to 234U/238U 1.0 occurs during the driest period, indicating a near shutdown of Jordan River flow, and water input only through flash floods and southern and eastern sources. The 120ka climate model runs shows a decrease in Winter and increase in Fall precipitation as a result of an increased precipitation in the tropics. The extreme aridity, associated with increased flooding is similar to patterns expected due to future warming. The increase in aridity is the result of expansion of the desert-belt and increases in southern precipitation and indicates an important link between the tropical and mid-latitude climate.

Wind extremes in the North Sea basin under climate change: an ensemble study of 12 CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Winter, R.; Ruessink, G.; Sterl, A.

2012-12-01

Coastal safety may be influenced by climate change, as changes in extreme surge levels and wave extremes may increase the vulnerability of dunes and other coastal defenses. In the North Sea, an area already prone to severe flooding, these high surge levels and waves are generated by severe wind speeds during storm events. As a result of the geometry of the North Sea, not only the maximum wind speed is relevant, but also wind direction. Analyzing changes in a changing climate implies that several uncertainties need to be taken into account. First, there is the uncertainty in climate experiments, which represents the possible development of the emission of greenhouse gases. Second, there is uncertainty between the climate models that are used to analyze the effect of different climate experiments. The third uncertainty is the natural variability of the climate. When this system variability is large, small trends will be difficult to detect. The natural variability results in statistical uncertainty, especially for events with high return values. We addressed the first two types of uncertainties for extreme wind conditions in the North Sea using 12 CMIP5 GCMs. To evaluate the differences between the climate experiments, two climate experiments (rcp4.5 and rcp8.5) from 2050-2100 are compared with historical runs, running from 1950-2000. Rcp4.5 is considered to be a middle climate experiment and rcp8.5 represents high-end climate scenarios. The projections of the 12 GCMs for a given scenario illustrate model uncertainty. We focus on the North Sea basin, because changes in wind conditions could have a large impact on safety of the densely populated North Sea coast, an area that has already a high exposure to flooding. Our results show that, consistent with ERA-Interim results, the annual maximum wind speed in the historical run demonstrates large interannual variability. For the North Sea, the annual maximum wind speed is not projected to change in either rcp4.5 or rcp8.5. In fact, the differences in the 12 GCMs are larger than the difference between the three experiments. Furthermore, our results show that, the variation in direction of annual maximum wind speed is large and this precludes a firm statement on climate-change induced changes in these directions. Nonetheless, most models indicate a decrease in annual maximum wind speed from south-eastern directions and an increase from south-western and western directions. This might be caused by a poleward shift of the storm track. The amount of wind from north-west and north-north-west, wind directions that are responsible for the development of extreme storm surges in the southern part of the North Sea, are not projected to change. However, North Sea coasts that have the longest fetch for western direction, e.g. the German Bight, may encounter more often high storm surge levels and extreme waves when the annual maximum wind will indeed be more often from western direction.

Contrasting patterns of nutrient dynamics during different storm events in a semi-arid catchment of northern China.

PubMed

Du, Xinzhong; Li, Xuyong; Hao, Shaonan; Wang, Huiliang; Shen, Xiao

2014-01-01

Nutrient discharge during storm events is a critical pathway for nutrient export in semi-arid catchments. We investigated nutrient dynamics during three summer storms characterized by different rainfall magnitude in 2012 in a semi-arid catchment of northern China. The results showed that, in response to storm events, nutrient dynamics displayed big variation in temporal trends of nutrient concentration and in nutrient concentration-flow discharge relationships. Nutrient concentrations had broader fluctuations during an extreme storm than during lesser storms, whereas the concentration ranges of the a moderate storm were no broader than those of a smaller one. The different concentration fluctuations were caused by storm magnitude and intensity coupled with the antecedent rainfall amount and cumulative nutrients. Correlation coefficients between nutrient concentrations and flow discharge varied from positive to negative for the three different events. There were no consistent hysteresis effects for the three different events, and no hysteresis effects were observed for any of the variables during the moderate storm (E2). Our findings provide useful information for better understanding nutrient loss mechanisms during storm events in semi-arid areas of a monsoon climate region.

Climate change and Mediterranean storm tracks: present and future climate simulations of a high-resolution Mediterranean model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hatzaki, M.; Flocas, H. A.; Simmonds, I.; Keay, K.; Giannakopoulos, C.; Brikolas, V.; Kouroutzoglou, J.

2010-09-01

A number of studies suggest that cyclone activity over both hemispheres has changed over the second half of the 20th century. General features include a reduction in the number of cyclones but with an increase in the number of more intense cyclones; as well as a poleward shift in the tracks. Moreover, these features are expected to be projected in the future under global warming conditions. The assessment of the future changes of the cyclonic activity as imposed by global warming conditions is very important since these cyclones can be associated with extreme precipitation conditions, severe storms and floods. This is more important for the Mediterranean that has been found to be more vulnerable to climate change. The main objective of the current study is to better understand and assess future changes in the main characteristics of cyclonic tracks in the Mediterranean. The climatology of the cyclonic tracks includes temporal and spatial variations of frequency, and dynamic and kinematic parameters, such as intensity, size, propagation velocity, as well as trend analysis. For this purpose, the ENEA high resolution model is employed, based on PROTHEUS system composed of the RegCM atmospheric regional model and the MITgcm ocean model, coupled through the OASIS3 flux coupler. These model data became available through the EU Project CIRCE which aims to perform, for the first time, climate change projections with a realistic representation of the Mediterranean Sea. Two experiments are employed; a) the EH5OM_20C3M present climate simulation, where the lateral boundary conditions for the atmosphere (1951-2000) are taken from the ECHAM5-MPIOM 20c3m global simulation (run3) included in the IPCC-AR4, and b) the EH5OM_A1B scenario simulation, where the IPCC-AR4 ECHAM5-MPIOM SRESA1B global simulation (run3) has been used for the period 2001-2050. The identification and tracking of cyclones is performed with the aid of the Melbourne University algorithm (MS algorithm), according to the Lagrangian perspective. MS algorithm characterizes a cyclone only if a vorticity maximum could be connected with a local pressure minimum. This approach is considered to be crucial, since open lows are also incorporated into the storm life-cycle, preventing possible inappropriate time series breaks, if a temporary weakening to an open-low state occurs. According to the results, a decrease of the storm number and a tendency towards deeper cyclones is expected in the future, in general agreement with the results of previous studies. However, new findings reveal with respect to the dynamic/kinematic characteristics of the cyclonic tracks. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: M. Hatzaki would like to thank the Greek State Scholarships Foundation for financial support through the program of postdoctoral research. The support of EU-FP6 project CIRCE Integrated Project-Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment (http://www.circeproject.eu) for climate model data provision is also greatly acknowledged.

Tracking salinity intrusions in a coastal forested freshwater wetland system

Treesearch

Anand D. Jayakaran; Thomas M. Williams; William H. Conner

2016-01-01

Coastal forested freshwater wetlands are sentinel sites for salinity intrusions associated with large, tidally influenced, storm-driven or drought-induced incursions of estuarine waters into freshwater ecosystems. These incursions may also be exacerbated by rising sea levels associated with climate change.

Energy Coupling During the August 2011 Magnetic Storm (Postprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-08-27

of the horizontal cross-track plasma drifts in this study. SSM sensors are triaxial fluxgate magnetometers that are mounted on 0.5m booms on the F15...Special Sensor for Ions Electrons and Scintillations (SSIES)). All of the satellites carry magnetometers (Special Sensor for Magnetic Fields (SSM)) to

Relationships and trends of E. Coli, human-associated bacteroides, and pathogens in the Proctor Creek watershed (GWRC 2017)

EPA Science Inventory

Urban surface waters can be impacted by anthropogenic sources such as impervious surfaces, sani-tary and storm sewers, and failing infrastructure. Fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) and microbial source tracking (MST) markers are common gauges of stream water qual-ity, however, litt...

DEVELOPMENT OF HOST-SPECIFIC METAGENOMIC MARKERS FOR MICROBIAL SOURCE TRACKING USING A NOVEL METAGENOMIC APPROACH

EPA Science Inventory

Fecal contamination of source waters is an important issue to the drinking water industry. Improper disposal of animal waste, leaky septic tanks, storm runoff, and wildlife can all be responsible for spreading enteric pathogens into source waters. As a result, methods that can pi...

Hurricane Ike: Observations and Analysis of Coastal Change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doran, Kara S.; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Stockdon, Hilary F.; Sallenger, Asbury H.; Serafin, Katherine A.

2009-01-01

Understanding storm-induced coastal change and forecasting these changes require knowledge of the physical processes associated with the storm and the geomorphology of the impacted coastline. The primary physical processes of interest are the wind field, storm surge, and wave climate. Not only does wind cause direct damage to structures along the coast, but it is ultimately responsible for much of the energy that is transferred to the ocean and expressed as storm surge, mean currents, and large waves. Waves and currents are the processes most responsible for moving sediments in the coastal zone during extreme storm events. Storm surge, the rise in water level due to the wind, barometric pressure, and other factors, allows both waves and currents to attack parts of the coast not normally exposed to those processes. Coastal geomorphology, including shapes of the shoreline, beaches, and dunes, is equally important to the coastal change observed during extreme storm events. Relevant geomorphic variables include sand dune elevation, beach width, shoreline position, sediment grain size, and foreshore beach slope. These variables, in addition to hydrodynamic processes, can be used to predict coastal vulnerability to storms The U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Project (http://coastal.er.usgs.gov/hurricanes), strives to provide hazard information to those interested in the Nation's coastlines, including residents of coastal areas, government agencies responsible for coastal management, and coastal researchers. As part of the National Assessment, observations were collected to measure coastal changes associated with Hurricane Ike, which made landfall near Galveston, Texas, on September 13, 2008. Methods of observation included aerial photography and airborne topographic surveys. This report documents these data-collection efforts and presents qualitative and quantitative descriptions of hurricane-induced changes to the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and infrastructure in the region that was heavily impacted by Hurricane Ike.

The Meteorological Setting of Narrow Bipolar Events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanley, M. A.; Suszcynsky, D. M.; Heavner, M. J.

2003-12-01

Narrow Bipolar Events (NBEs) are an impulsive form of electrical breakdown in storms which emits strong VHF radiation. It is well known that these events can be readily detected by VHF receivers in orbit and thus may provide a highly practical means to globally monitor storm activity. However, relatively little is known about how NBEs relate to the convective phase of storms and of how good a predictor they are of severe weather events such as large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes. On June 10, 2002, numerous energetic NBEs were detected over Kansas by the Los Alamos National Laboratory Edot array, which is primarily located in Florida. These NBEs were also detected by a VHF receiver on-board the SVN 54 GPS satellite. The NBEs were associated with severe thunderstorms which produced softball size hail exceeding 11 centimeters in diameter and a weak F0 tornado. In another case study, several F2 tornadic Florida storms were analyzed for March, 2001. Unlike the Kansas storms, the NBEs of the Florida tornadic storms were spread out over a much wider area and exhibited considerable variability in both frequency of occurrence and predominant polarity of vertical charge transfer. To further explore the significance of the NBE rate variability, we will analyze NEXRAD radar volume scans in conjunction with Edot 3-dimensional locations to better understand how NBEs correlate with the thunderstorm life-cycle.

Spatial variability in the trends in extreme storm surges and weekly-scale high water levels in the eastern Baltic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soomere, Tarmo; Pindsoo, Katri

2016-03-01

We address the possibilities of a separation of the overall increasing trend in maximum water levels of semi-enclosed water bodies into associated trends in the heights of local storm surges and basin-scale components of the water level based on recorded and modelled local water level time series. The test area is the Baltic Sea. Sequences of strong storms may substantially increase its water volume and raise the average sea level by almost 1 m for a few weeks. Such events are singled out from the water level time series using a weekly-scale average. The trends in the annual maxima of the weekly average have an almost constant value along the entire eastern Baltic Sea coast for averaging intervals longer than 4 days. Their slopes are ~4 cm/decade for 8-day running average and decrease with an increase of the averaging interval. The trends for maxima of local storm surge heights represent almost the entire spatial variability in the water level maxima. Their slopes vary from almost zero for the open Baltic Proper coast up to 5-7 cm/decade in the eastern Gulf of Finland and Gulf of Riga. This pattern suggests that an increase in wind speed in strong storms is unlikely in this area but storm duration may have increased and wind direction may have rotated.

HYDRAULIC ANALYSIS OF BASE-FLOW AND BANK STORAGE IN ALLUVIAL STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents analytical solutions, which describe the effect of time-variable net recharge (net accretion to water table) and bank storage in alluvial aquifers on the sustenance of stream flows during storm and inter-storm events. The solutions relate the stream discharge,...

The threshold between storm overwash and inundation and the implication to paleo-storm records and climate signatures.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, C. G.; Long, J.; Osterman, L. E.; Plant, N. G.; Marot, M. E.; Bernier, J.; Flocks, J. G.; Adams, C. S.

2014-12-01

In modern coastal systems, the sensitivity of a coastal site to erosion or deposition during storm conditions depends largely on the geomorphic configuration (e.g. dune or beach height and width) and the storm-induced oceanographic processes (surge and waves). Depending on the magnitude of these variables, coastal systems may be eroded, overwashed, breached, and/or inundated during the storm. To date, there has been no attempt to evaluate how these observable modern differences in storm-impact regimes might be utilized to interpret paleo-storm intensities and frequencies. Time-series of sediment texture, radioisotopic, and foraminiferal data from back-barrier environments along the Chandeleur Islands (Louisiana, USA) document the emplacement of a storm event deposit from Hurricane Isaac and we use this event to test paleo-storm intensity reconstruction methods. Water level reconstructed for the event layer using an advection (grain-size) settling model are 2 - 3 times greater than measured during the storm. The over-estimation is linked to the reconstruction model's assumptions concerning sediment transport during storms (i.e., overwash only), while actual processes included inundation as well. These contrasts may result in misidentification (i.e., presence/absence) and/or misclassification (i.e., intensity) of storms in the geologic record (e.g., low geomorphic conditions and high water levels) that would in turn affect the ability to link storm frequency or intensity to climatic drivers.

Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Prein, Andreas F.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Trier, Stanley B.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Holland, Greg J.; Clark, Martyn P.

2017-12-01

Mesoscale convective system (MCS)-organized convective storms with a size of 100 km have increased in frequency and intensity in the USA over the past 35 years1, causing fatalities and economic losses2. However, their poor representation in traditional climate models hampers the understanding of their change in the future3. Here, a North American-scale convection-permitting model which is able to realistically simulate MSCs4 is used to investigate their change by the end-of-century under RCP8.5 (ref. 5). A storm-tracking algorithm6 indicates that intense summertime MCS frequency will more than triple in North America. Furthermore, the combined effect of a 15-40% increase in maximum precipitation rates and a significant spreading of regions impacted by heavy precipitation results in up to 80% increases in the total MCS precipitation volume, focussed in a 40 km radius around the storm centre. These typically neglected increases substantially raise future flood risk. Current investments in long-lived infrastructures, such as flood protection and water management systems, need to take these changes into account to improve climate-adaptation practices.

Magnitudes of nearshore waves generated by tropical cyclone Winston, the strongest landfalling cyclone in South Pacific records. Unprecedented or unremarkable?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Terry, James P.; Lau, A. Y. Annie

2018-02-01

We delimit nearshore storm waves generated by category-5 Tropical Cyclone Winston in February 2016 on the northern Fijian island of Taveuni. Wave magnitudes (heights and flow velocities) are hindcast by inverse modelling, based on the characteristics of large carbonate boulders (maximum 33.8 m3, 60.9 metric tons) that were quarried from reef-front sources, transported and deposited on coral reef platforms during Winston and older extreme events. Results indicate that Winston's storm waves on the seaward-margin of reefs fringing the southeastern coasts of Taveuni reached over 10 m in height and generated flow velocities of 14 m s- 1, thus coinciding with the scale of the biggest ancient storms as estimated from pre-existing boulder evidence. We conclude that although Winston tracked an uncommon path and was described as the most powerful storm on record to make landfall in the Fiji Islands, its coastal wave characteristics were not unprecedented on centennial timescales. At least seven events of comparable magnitude have occurred over the last 400 years.

Forcing of the Coupled Ionosphere-Thermosphere (IT) System During Magnetic Storms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Cheryl; Huang, Yanshi; Su, Yi-Jiun; Sutton, Eric; Hairston, Marc; Coley, W. Robin; Doornbos, Eelco; Zhang, Yongliang

2014-01-01

Poynting flux shows peaks around auroral zone AND inside polar cap. Energy enters IT system at all local times in polar cap. Track-integrated flux at DMSP often peaks at polar latitudes- probably due to increased area of polar cap during storm main phases. center dot lon temperatures at DMSP show large increases in polar region at all local times; cusp and auroral zones do not show distinctively high Ti. center dot I on temperatures in the polar cap are higher than in the auroral zones during quiet times. center dot Neutral densities at GRACE and GOCE show maxima at polar latitudes without clear auroral signatures. Response is fast, minutes from onset to density peaks. center dot GUVI observations of O/N2 ratio during storms show similar response as direct measurements of ion and neutral densities, i.e. high temperatures in polar cap during prestorm quiet period, heating proceeding from polar cap to lower latitudes during storm main phase. center dot Discrepancy between maps of Poynting flux and of ion temperatures/neutral densities suggests that connection between Poynting flux and Joule heating is not simple.

Characterisation and modelling of washover fans

USGS Publications Warehouse

Donnelly, Chantal; Sallenger, Asbury H.

2007-01-01

Pre- and post-storm topography and aerial photography, collected in regions where new washover fans were formed, were studied to determine the extent of morphologic, vegetative and anthropogenic control on washover shape and extent. When overwash is funnelled through a gap in a dune ridge and then spreads laterally on the back barrier, decelerating and depositing sediment, it forms washover fans. Fans were shown to primarily occur at pre-existing gaps in the foredune. During overwash, these gaps, or overwash throats, widened and deepened. The shape and extent of the fan was shown to depend on not only the pre-storm topography, but also the existence of beach tracks, roads and other anthropogenic influences and vegetation. The cross-shore overwash profile change model by Larson et al. and Donnelly et al. was modified to include pre-storm throat widths and a lateral spreading angle estimated from the pre-storm topography as inputs and tested using cross-shore profiles through the fan centres. These new inputs make the model more generalised, such that the calibrated model is applicable to a wider range of cross-shore profiles.

Spatial and temporal analysis of extreme sea level and storm surge events around the coastline of the UK

PubMed Central

Haigh, Ivan D.; Wadey, Matthew P.; Wahl, Thomas; Ozsoy, Ozgun; Nicholls, Robert J.; Brown, Jennifer M.; Horsburgh, Kevin; Gouldby, Ben

2016-01-01

In this paper we analyse the spatial footprint and temporal clustering of extreme sea level and skew surge events around the UK coast over the last 100 years (1915–2014). The vast majority of the extreme sea level events are generated by moderate, rather than extreme skew surges, combined with spring astronomical high tides. We distinguish four broad categories of spatial footprints of events and the distinct storm tracks that generated them. There have been rare events when extreme levels have occurred along two unconnected coastal regions during the same storm. The events that occur in closest succession (<4 days) typically impact different stretches of coastline. The spring/neap tidal cycle prevents successive extreme sea level events from happening within 4–8 days. Finally, the 2013/14 season was highly unusual in the context of the last 100 years from an extreme sea level perspective. PMID:27922630

Generation of a Catalogue of European Windstorms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varino, Filipa; Baptiste Granier, Jean; Bordoy, Roger; Arbogast, Philippe; Joly, Bruno; Riviere, Gwendal; Fandeur, Marie-Laure; Bovy, Henry; Mitchell-Wallace, Kirsten; Souch, Claire

2016-04-01

The probability of multiple wind-storm events within a year is crucial to any (re)insurance company writing European wind business. Indeed, the volatility of losses is enhanced by the clustering of storms (cyclone families), as occurred in early 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke), December 1999 (Lothar, Martin) or December 2015 (Desmond, Eva, Frank), among others. In order to track winter extratropical cyclones, we use the maximum relative vorticity at 850 hPa of the new-released long-term ERA-20C reanalysis from the ECMWF since the beginning of the 20th Century until 2010. We develop an automatic procedure to define events. We then quantify the severity of each storm using loss and meteorological indices at country and Europe-wide level. Validation against market losses for the period 1970-2010 is undertaken before considering the severity and frequency of European windstorms for the 110 years period.

Tropical storm redistribution of Saharan dust to the upper troposphere and ocean surface

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herbener, Stephen R.; Saleeby, Stephen M.; Heever, Susan C.; Twohy, Cynthia H.

2016-10-01

As a tropical cyclone traverses the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), the storm will spatially redistribute the dust from the SAL. Dust deposited on the surface may affect ocean fertilization, and dust transported to the upper levels of the troposphere may impact radiative forcing. This study explores the relative amounts of dust that are vertically redistributed when a tropical cyclone crosses the SAL. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) was configured to simulate the passage of Tropical Storm Debby (2006) through the SAL. A dust mass budget approach has been applied, enabled by a novel dust mass tracking capability of the model, to determine the amounts of dust deposited on the ocean surface and transferred aloft. The mass of dust removed to the ocean surface was predicted to be nearly 2 orders of magnitude greater than the amount of dust transported to the upper troposphere.

Quality and Control of Water Vapor Winds

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jedlovec, Gary J.; Atkinson, Robert J.

1996-01-01

Water vapor imagery from the geostationary satellites such as GOES, Meteosat, and GMS provides synoptic views of dynamical events on a continual basis. Because the imagery represents a non-linear combination of mid- and upper-tropospheric thermodynamic parameters (three-dimensional variations in temperature and humidity), video loops of these image products provide enlightening views of regional flow fields, the movement of tropical and extratropical storm systems, the transfer of moisture between hemispheres and from the tropics to the mid- latitudes, and the dominance of high pressure systems over particular regions of the Earth. Despite the obvious larger scale features, the water vapor imagery contains significant image variability down to the single 8 km GOES pixel. These features can be quantitatively identified and tracked from one time to the next using various image processing techniques. Merrill et al. (1991), Hayden and Schmidt (1992), and Laurent (1993) have documented the operational procedures and capabilities of NOAA and ESOC to produce cloud and water vapor winds. These techniques employ standard correlation and template matching approaches to wind tracking and use qualitative and quantitative procedures to eliminate bad wind vectors from the wind data set. Techniques have also been developed to improve the quality of the operational winds though robust editing procedures (Hayden and Veldon 1991). These quality and control approaches have limitations, are often subjective, and constrain wind variability to be consistent with model derived wind fields. This paper describes research focused on the refinement of objective quality and control parameters for water vapor wind vector data sets. New quality and control measures are developed and employed to provide a more robust wind data set for climate analysis, data assimilation studies, as well as operational weather forecasting. The parameters are applicable to cloud-tracked winds as well with minor modifications. The improvement in winds through use of these new quality and control parameters is measured without the use of rawinsonde or modeled wind field data and compared with other approaches.

Development of Inundation Map for Bantayan Island, Cebu Using Delft3D-Flow Storm Surge Simulations of Typhoon Haiyan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuadra, Camille; Suarez, John Kenneth; Biton, Nophi Ian; Cabacaba, Krichi May; Lapidez, John Phillip; Santiago, Joy; Mahar Francisco Lagmay, Alfredo; Malano, Vicente

2014-05-01

On average, 20 typhoons enter the Philippine area of responsibility annually, making it vulnerable to different storm hazards. Apart from the frequency of tropical cyclones, the archipelagic nature of the country makes it particularly prone to storm surges. On 08 November 2013, Haiyan, a Category 5 Typhoon with maximum one-minute sustained wind speed of 315 kph, hit the central region of the Philippines. In its path, the howler devastated Bantayan Island, a popular tourist destination. The island is located north of Cebu City, the second largest metropolis of the Philippines in terms of populace. Having been directly hit by Typhoon Haiyan, Bantayan Island was severely damaged by strong winds and storm surges, with more than 11,000 houses totally destroyed while 5,000 more suffered minor damage. The adverse impacts of possible future storm surge events in the island can only be mitigated if hazard maps that depict inundation of the coastal areas of Bantayan are generated. To create such maps, Delft3D-Flow, a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate storm surges. These simulations were made over a 10-m per pixel resolution Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO) bathymetry. The results of the coastal inundation model for Typhoon Haiyan's storm surges were validated using data collected from field work and local government reports. The hydrodynamic model of Bantayan was then calibrated using the field data and further simulations were made with varying typhoon tracks. This was done to generate scenarios on the farthest possible inland incursion of storm surges. The output of the study is a detailed storm surge inundation map that depicts safe zones for development of infrastructure near coastal areas and for construction of coastal protection structures. The storm surge inundation map can also be used as basis for disaster preparedness plans of coastal communities threatened by approaching typhoons.

iss009e17915

NASA Image and Video Library

2004-08-12

ISS009-E-17915 (12 August 2004) --- This is an early morning view (6:29 a.m., CDT) from the International Space Station, which shows Hurricane Charley centered south of western Cuba over the Cayman Islands in the northwest Caribbean Sea. At the time of this image the storm was reported to be near 19.2N 80.5W with winds of 85 miles per hour as it moved northwest at 16 miles per hour. The north coast of Cuba is barely visible near the bottom of the image, which was taken by astronaut Mike Fincke looking to the south as the spacecraft flew on a track north of Cuba and the storm.

Hydrologic response for a high-elevation storm in the South Dakota Black Hills

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bunkers, Matthew J.; Smith, Melissa; Driscoll, Daniel G.; Hoogestraat, Galen K.

2015-01-01

A group of thunderstorms produced >4 in of rain during four periods of progressively more intense rainfall across a small part of a relatively high-elevation area of the northern Black Hills on 5 August 2014. The resulting hydrologic response was noteworthy in two very small headwater drainage basins, where the measured peak flows are by far the largest—relative to drainage area—ever documented for the high-elevation Limestone Plateau area. However, peak flows attenuated quickly in a downstream direction owing to the storms tracking perpendicular to the drainage direction, moderately dry antecedent conditions, and progressive widening of the valley bottoms.

A high-resolution simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014)—Part I: Model verification and surface energetics analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Xinghai; Duan, Yihong; Wang, Yuqing; Wei, Na; Hu, Hao

2017-06-01

A 72-h high-resolution simulation of Supertyphoon Rammasun (2014) is performed using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model. The model covers an initial 18-h spin-up, the 36-h rapid intensification (RI) period in the northern South China Sea, and the 18-h period of weakening after landfall. The results show that the model reproduces the track, intensity, structure of the storm, and environmental circulations reasonably well. Analysis of the surface energetics under the storm indicates that the storm's intensification is closely related to the net energy gain rate ( ɛ g), defined as the difference between the energy production ( P D) due to surface entropy flux and the energy dissipation ( D S) due to surface friction near the radius of maximum wind (RMW). Before and during the RI stage, the ɛ g is high, indicating sufficient energy supply for the storm to intensify. However, the ɛ g decreases rapidly as the storm quickly intensifies, because the DS increases more rapidly than the P D near the RMW. By the time the storm reaches its peak intensity, the D S is about 20% larger than the P D near the RMW, leading to a local energetics deficit under the eyewall. During the mature stage, the P D and D S can reach a balance within a radius of 86 km from the storm center (about 2.3 times the RMW). This implies that the local P D under the eyewall is not large enough to balance the D S, and the radially inward energy transport from outside the eyewall must play an important role in maintaining the storm's intensity, as well as its intensification.

Long-Range Lightning Products for Short Term Forecasting of Tropical Cyclogenesis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Businger, S.; Pessi, A.; Robinson, T.; Stolz, D.

2010-12-01

This paper will describe innovative graphical products derived in real time from long-range lightning data. The products have been designed to aid in short-term forecasting of tropical cyclone development for the Tropical Cyclone Structure Experiment 2010 (TCS10) held over the western Pacific Ocean from 17 August to 17 October 2010 and are available online at http://www.soest.hawaii.edu/cgi-bin/pacnet/tcs10.pl. The long-range lightning data are from Vaisala’s Global Lightning Data 360 (GLD360) network and include time, location, current strength, polarity, and data quality indication. The products currently provided in real time include i. Infrared satellite imagery overlaid with lighting flash locations, with color indication of current strength and polarity (shades of blue for negative to ground and red for positive to ground). ii. A 15x15 degree storm-centered tile of IR imagery overlaid with lightning data as in i). iii. A pseudo reflectivity product showing estimates of radar reflectivity based on lightning rate - rain rate conversion derived from TRMM and PacNet data. iv. A lightning history product that plots each hour of lightning flash locations in a different color for a 12-hour period. v. Graphs of lightning counts within 50 or 300 km radius, respectively, of the storm center vs storm central sea-level pressure. vi. A 2-D graphic showing storm core lightning density along the storm track. The first three products above can be looped to gain a better understanding of the evolution of the lightning and storm structure. Examples of the graphics and their utility will be demonstrated and discussed. Histogram of lightning counts within 50 km of the storm center and graph of storm central pressure as a function of time.

The cascade from local to global dust storms on Mars: Temporal and spatial thresholds on thermal and dynamical feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toigo, Anthony D.; Richardson, Mark I.; Wang, Huiqun; Guzewich, Scott D.; Newman, Claire E.

2018-03-01

We use the MarsWRF general circulation model to examine the temporal and spatial response of the atmosphere to idealized local and regional dust storm radiative heating. The ability of storms to modify the atmosphere away from the location of dust heating is a likely prerequisite for dynamical feedbacks that aid the growth of storms beyond the local scale, while the ability of storms to modify the atmosphere after the cessation of dust radiative heating is potentially important in preconditioning the atmosphere prior to large scale storms. Experiments were conducted over a range of static, prescribed storm sizes, durations, optical depth strengths, locations, and vertical extents of dust heating. Our results show that for typical sizes (order 105 km2) and durations (1-10 sols) of local dust storms, modification of the atmosphere is less than the typical variability of the unperturbed (storm-free) state. Even if imposed on regional storm length scales (order 106 km2), a 1-sol duration storm similarly does not significantly modify the background atmosphere. Only when imposed for 10 sols does a regional dust storm create a significant impact on the background atmosphere, allowing for the possibility of self-induced dynamical storm growth. These results suggest a prototype for how the subjective observational categorization of storms may be related to objective dynamical growth feedbacks that only become available to storms after they achieve a threshold size and duration, or if they grow into an atmosphere preconditioned by a prior large and sustained storm.

Formation of ionospheric irregularities over Southeast Asia during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spogli, Luca; Cesaroni, Claudio; Di Mauro, Domenico; Pezzopane, Michael; Alfonsi, Lucilla; Musicò, Elvira; Povero, Gabriella; Pini, Marco; Dovis, Fabio; Romero, Rodrigo; Linty, Nicola; Abadi, Prayitno; Nuraeni, Fitri; Husin, Asnawi; Le Huy, Minh; Lan, Tran Thi; La, The Vinh; Pillat, Valdir Gil; Floury, Nicolas

2016-12-01

We investigate the geospace response to the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm leveraging on instruments spread over Southeast Asia (SEA), covering a wide longitudinal sector of the low-latitude ionosphere. A regional characterization of the storm is provided, identifying the peculiarities of ionospheric irregularity formation. The novelties of this work are the characterization in a broad longitudinal range and the methodology relying on the integration of data acquired by Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) receivers, magnetometers, ionosondes, and Swarm satellites. This work is a legacy of the project EquatoRial Ionosphere Characterization in Asia (ERICA). ERICA aimed to capture the features of both crests of the equatorial ionospheric anomaly (EIA) and trough (EIT) by means of a dedicated measurement campaign. The campaign lasted from March to October 2015 and was able to observe the ionospheric variability causing effects on radio systems, GNSS in particular. The multiinstrumental and multiparametric observations of the region enabled an in-depth investigation of the response to the largest geomagnetic storm of the current solar cycle in a region scarcely reported in literature. Our work discusses the comparison between northern and southern crests of the EIA in the SEA region. The observations recorded positive and negative ionospheric storms, spread F conditions, scintillation enhancement and inhibition, and total electron content variability. The ancillary information on the local magnetic field highlights the variety of ionospheric perturbations during the different storm phases. The combined use of ionospheric bottomside, topside, and integrated information points out how the storm affects the F layer altitude and the consequent enhancement/suppression of scintillations.

Decadal predictability of winter windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Höschel, Ines; Grieger, Jens; Ulbrich, Uwe

2017-04-01

Winter windstorms are one of the most impact relevant extreme-weather events in Europe. This study is focussed on windstorm frequency in Eastern Europe at multi-year time scale. Individual storms are identified by using 6-hourly 10m-wind-fields. The impact-oriented tracking algorithm is based on the exceedance of the local 98 percentile of wind speed and a minimum duration of 18 hours. Here, storm frequency is the number of 1000km-footprints of identified windstorms touching the location during extended boreal winter from October to March. The temporal development of annual storm frequencies in Eastern Europe shows variations on a six to fifteen years period. Higher than normal windstorm frequency occurred end of the 1950s and in beginning of the seventies, while lower than normal frequency were around 1960 and in the forties, for example. The correlation between bandpass filtered storm frequency and North Atlantic sea surface temperature shows a significant pattern with a positive correlation in the subtropical East Atlantic and significant negative correlations in the Gulfstream region. The relationship between these multi-year variations and predictability on decadal time scales is discussed. The resulting skill of winter wind storms in the German decadal prediction system MiKlip, based on the numerical earth system model MPI-ESM, will be presented.

East China Sea Storm Surge Modeling and Visualization System: the Typhoon Soulik case.

PubMed

Deng, Zengan; Zhang, Feng; Kang, Linchong; Jiang, Xiaoyi; Jin, Jiye; Wang, Wei

2014-01-01

East China Sea (ECS) Storm Surge Modeling System (ESSMS) is developed based on Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Case simulation is performed on the Typhoon Soulik, which landed on the coastal region of Fujian Province, China, at 6 pm of July 13, 2013. Modeling results show that the maximum tide level happened at 6 pm, which was also the landing time of Soulik. This accordance may lead to significant storm surge and water level rise in the coastal region. The water level variation induced by high winds of Soulik ranges from -0.1 to 0.15 m. Water level generally increases near the landing place, in particular on the left hand side of the typhoon track. It is calculated that 0.15 m water level rise in this region can cause a submerge increase of ~0.2 km(2), which could be catastrophic to the coastal environment and the living. Additionally, a Globe Visualization System (GVS) is realized on the basis of World Wind to better provide users with the typhoon/storm surge information. The main functions of GVS include data indexing, browsing, analyzing, and visualization. GVS is capable of facilitating the precaution and mitigation of typhoon/storm surge in ESC in combination with ESSMS.

Ocean Observing Public-Private Collaboration to Improve Tropical Storm and Hurricane Predictions in the Gulf of Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, R.; Leung, P.; McCall, W.; Martin, K. M.; Howden, S. D.; Vandermeulen, R. A.; Kim, H. S. S.; Kirkpatrick, B. A.; Watson, S.; Smith, W.

2016-02-01

In 2008, Shell partnered with NOAA to explore opportunities for improving storm predictions in the Gulf of Mexico. Since, the collaboration has grown to include partners from Shell, NOAA National Data Buoy Center and National Center for Environmental Information, National Center for Environmental Prediction, University of Southern Mississippi, and the Gulf of Mexico Coastal Ocean Observing System. The partnership leverages complementary strengths of each collaborator to build a comprehensive and sustainable monitoring and data program to expand observing capacity and protect offshore assets and Gulf communities from storms and hurricanes. The program combines in situ and autonomous platforms with remote sensing and numerical modeling. Here we focus on profiling gliders and the benefits of a public-private partnership model for expanding regional ocean observing capacity. Shallow and deep gliders measure ocean temperature to derive ocean heat content (OHC), along with salinity, dissolved oxygen, fluorescence, and CDOM, in the central and eastern Gulf shelf and offshore. Since 2012, gliders have collected 4500+ vertical profiles and surveyed 5000+ nautical miles. Adaptive sampling and mission coordination with NCEP modelers provides specific datasets to assimilate into EMC's coupled HYCOM-HWRF model and 'connect-the-dots' between well-established Eulerian metocean measurements by obtaining (and validating) data between fixed stations (e.g. platform and buoy ADCPs) . Adaptive sampling combined with remote sensing provides satellite-derived OHC validation and the ability to sample productive coastal waters advected offshore by the Loop Current. Tracking coastal waters with remote sensing provides another verification of estimate Loop Current and eddy boundaries, as well as quantifying productivity and analyzing water quality on the Gulf coast, shelf break and offshore. Incorporating gliders demonstrates their value as tools to better protect offshore oil and gas assets and the greater Gulf coast communities from storms and hurricanes. Data collected under the collaboration, along with deployment of gliders, will have long-term benefits in helping to understand the ecological and environmental health of the Gulf by monitoring real-time annual and seasonal physical variability.

Poleward shift and weakening of summer season synoptic activity over India in a warming climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravindran, A. M.; Sandeep, S.; Boos, W. R.; TP, S.; Praveen, V.

2017-12-01

One of the main components of the Indian summer monsoon is the presence of low intensity cyclonic systems popularly known as Low Pressure Systems (LPS), which contribute more than half of the precipitation received over the fertile Central Indian region. An average of 13 (±2.5) storms develop each boreal summer, with most originating over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and adjoining land. These systems typically follow a north-west track along the monsoon trough. Despite its significance, the future variability of these storms is not studied, due to the inadequate representation of these systems in current generation climate models. A series of numerical experiments are performed here using the High Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM) with a horizontal grid spacing of 50 km globally to simulate these rain-bearing systems. One set of simulations represents the historical (HIST) period and the other a late 21st century climate scenario based on the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). Four ensemble members of these simulations are run, with sea surface temperatures (SSTs) taken from different CMIP5 GCMs selected for their skill in simulating the Indian monsoon. In addition, ten ensemble members of `decadal' experiments are run for both HIST and RCP8.5 to assess model uncertainty, in which the model is forced with annual cycles of decadal mean SSTs. We show that the strength of monsoon LPS activity would decline as much as 50% by the end of the 21st century, under business as usual emission scenario. The overall reduction in the LPS activity is contributed by a 60% decrease in the frequency of storms over the Bay of Bengal, while the weaker systems that form over the land has increased 10% in a warmer climate. Further analysis suggests that a relatively slower rate of warming over the Bay of Bengal compared to the surrounding regions has resulted in an enhanced moist stability over the main genesis region of LPS, which in turn suppressed the growth of these storms in a warmer climate. The change in extreme precipitation may be mentioned as a consequence of ocean-to-land shift in LPS activity.

The Influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Tropospheric Distributions of Ozone and Carbon Monoxide.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowland, K. E.; Doherty, R. M.; Hodges, K.

2015-12-01

The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on the tropospheric distributions of ozone (O3) and carbon monoxide (CO) has been quantified. The Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) Reanalysis, a combined meteorology and composition dataset for the period 2003-2012 (Innes et al., 2013), is used to investigate the composition of the troposphere and lower stratosphere in relation to the location of the storm track as well as other meteorological parameters over the North Atlantic associated with the different NAO phases. Cyclone tracks in the MACC Reanalysis compare well to the cyclone tracks in the widely-used ERA-Interim Reanalysis for the same 10-year period (cyclone tracking performed using the tracking algorithm of Hodges (1995, 1999)), as both are based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' (ECMWF) Integrated Forecast System (IFS). A seasonal analysis is performed whereby the MACC reanalysis meteorological fields, O3 and CO mixing ratios are weighted by the monthly NAO index values. The location of the main storm track, which tilts towards high latitudes (toward the Arctic) during positive NAO phases to a more zonal location in the mid-latitudes (toward Europe) during negative NAO phases, impacts the location of both horizontal and vertical transport across the North Atlantic and into the Arctic. During positive NAO seasons, the persistence of cyclones over the North Atlantic coupled with a stronger Azores High promotes strong horizontal transport across the North Atlantic throughout the troposphere. In all seasons, significantly more intense cyclones occur at higher latitudes (north of ~50°C) during the positive phase of the NAO and in the southern mid-latitudes during the negative NAO phase. This impacts the location of stratospheric intrusions within the descending dry airstream behind the associated cold front of the extratropical cyclone and the venting of low-level pollution up into the free troposphere within the warm conveyor belt airstream which rises ahead of the cold front.

Coastal flooding hazard related to storms and coastal evolution in Valdelagrana spit (Cadiz Bay Natural Park, SW Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Benavente, J.; Del Río, L.; Gracia, F. J.; Martínez-del-Pozo, J. A.

2006-06-01

Mapping of coastal inundation hazard related to storms requires the combination of multiple sources of information regarding meteorological, morphological and dynamic characteristics of both the area at risk and the studied phenomena. Variables such as beach slope, storm wave height or wind speed have traditionally been used, but detailed geomorphological features of the area as well as long-term shoreline evolution trends must also be taken into account in order to achieve more realistic results. This work presents an evaluation of storm flooding hazard in Valdelagrana spit and marshes (SW Spain), considering two types of storm that are characteristic of the area: a modal storm with 1 year of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 3.3 m), and an extreme storm with 6-10 years of recurrence interval (maximum wave height of 10.6 m), both approaching the coast perpendicularly. After calculating theoretical storm surge elevation, a digital terrain model was made by adjusting topographic data to field work and detailed geomorphological analysis. A model of flooding extent was subsequently developed for each storm type, and then corrected according to the rates of shoreline change in the last decades, which were assessed by means of aerial photographs taking the dune toe as shoreline indicator. Results show that long-term coastline trend represents an important factor in the prediction of flooding extent, since shoreline retreat causes the deterioration of natural coastal defences as dune ridges, thus increasing coastal exposure to high-energy waves. This way, it has been stated that the lack of sedimentary supply plays an important role in spatial variability of inundation extent in Valdelagrana spit. Finally, a hazard map is presented, where calculated coastal retreat rates are employed in order to predict the areas that could be affected by future inundation events.

HUBBLE TRACKS 'PERFECT STORM' ON MARS

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

2002-01-01

Two dramatically different faces of our Red Planet neighbor appear in these comparison images showing how a global dust storm engulfed Mars with the onset of Martian spring in the Southern Hemisphere. When NASA's Hubble Space Telescope imaged Mars in June, the seeds of the storm were caught brewing in the giant Hellas Basin (oval at 4 o'clock position on disk) and in another storm at the northern polar cap. When Hubble photographed Mars in early September, the storm had already been raging across the planet for nearly two months obscuring all surface features. The fine airborne dust blocks a significant amount of sunlight from reaching the Martian surface. Because the airborne dust is absorbing this sunlight, it heats the upper atmosphere. Seasonal global Mars dust storms have been observed from telescopes for over a century, but this is the biggest storm ever seen in the past several decades. Mars looks gibbous in the right photograph because it is 26 million miles farther from Earth than in the left photo (though the pictures have been scaled to the same angular size), and our viewing angle has changed. The left picture was taken when Mars was near its closest approach to Earth for 2001 (an event called opposition); at that point the disk of Mars was fully illuminated as seen from Earth because Mars was exactly opposite the Sun. Both images are in natural color, taken with Hubble's Wide Field Planetary Camera 2. Credit: NASA, James Bell (Cornell Univ.), Michael Wolff (Space Science Inst.), and the Hubble Heritage Team (STScI/AURA)

Characterization of Convective Systems in Africa in Terms of their Vertical Structure, Electrification and Dynamics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tadesse, A.; Anagnostou, E. N.

2007-05-01

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) are cloud systems that occur from an ensemble of thunder storms and result in a precipitation that covers a huge contiguous area. They are long-lived storm system having dimensions much larger than an individual storm. Storm systems associated with MCSs over the Africa are tracked for the period July to December 2004 and their properties at different stages of their life are investigated in terms of the vertical reflectivity profile, electrification and dynamics of clouds. The research is facilitated by remote sensing data, which include instantaneous vertical reflectivity fields derived from the TRMM precipitation radar (PR), coincident 1/2-hourly observations of long-range lightning accumulation and Global IR fields. Results show a strong indication of the magnitude and intensity of electrification of a thunderstorm with the stage of its life. More vigorous dynamic conditions with intense electrification are observed during the growing stage of the storm and more or less stable situation uniform distribution of electrification has been distributed to most of the pixels in the storm during its maturity stage and less rainfall and electrification during its decaying stage was a general observation during the period. The vertical reflectivity has been found to be strongly related to the electrification and the stage of the convective life cycle in such away that the reflectivity decrease as the storm matures and decays. A good correlation is observed between the strength of vertical profile of reflectivity, which is a proxy for the ice concentration, and lightning activity.

Similarities and differences in dissolved organic matter response in two headwater streams under contrasted hydro-climatic regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butturini, Andrea; Guarch, Alba; Battin, Tom

2017-04-01

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) concentration and properties in headwater streams are strongly shaped by hydrology. Besides the direct relationship with storms and high flows, seasonal variability of base flow also influences DOM variability. This study focuses on identifying the singularities and similarities in DOM - discharge relationships between an intermittent Mediterranean stream (Fuirosos) and a perennial Alpine stream (Oberer Seebach). Oberer Seebach had a higher discharge mean, but Fuirosos had a higher variability in flow and in magnitude of storm events. During three years we performed an intensive sampling that allows us to satisfactorily capture abrupt and extreme storms. We analysed dissolved organic carbon concentration (DOC) and optical properties of DOM and we calculated the specific ultraviolet absorbance (SUVA), the spectral slopes ratio (SR), the fluorescence index (FI), the biological index (BIX) and the humification index (HIX). DOM in Fuirosos was significantly more concentrated than in Oberer Seebach, and more terrigenous (lower FI), more degraded (lower BIX), more aromatic (higher SUVA) and more humificated (higher HIX). Most of the DOM properties showed a clear relationship with discharge and the sign of the global response was identical in both streams. However, discharge was a more robust predictor of DOM variability in Oberer Seebach than in Fuirosos. In fact, low flow and rewetting periods in Fuirosos introduced considerable dispersion in the relationship. During snowmelt in Oberer Seebach the sensitivity to discharge also decreased (DOC and BIX) or disappeared (SR, FI and HIX). The magnitude of the storm events (DQ) in Fuirosos significantly drove the changes in DOC, FI, BIX and SUVA. This suggests that the flushing/dilution patterns were essentially associated to the occurrence of storm episodes in Fuirosos. In contrast, in Oberer Seebach all DOM qualitative properties were unrelated to DQ and it significantly explained only the change in DOC. While the storms were behind the DOC oscillations, DOM quality change in Oberer Seebach was more coupled to basal flow conditions. Finally, the biogeochemical analysis of two hydrologically different headwaters motivates to speculate about the impact of the hydrological regime alteration forced by atmospheric drivers on DOM quantity and properties.

NASA Sees Major Winter Storm Headed for Eastern U.S.

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-12-08

On Jan. 20 at 2:30 p.m. EST the VIIRS instrument aboard NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP captured this image of the winter storm moving through the central U.S. Credits: NASA Goddard Rapid Response The low pressure area from the Eastern Pacific Ocean moved into the western U.S. and tracked across the four corners region into Texas where NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite observed the clouds associated with the storm. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard Suomi NPP satellite captured the visible image on January 20, 2016 at 19:30 UTC (2:30 p.m. EST) when the storm was over the central U.S. In the image, snow cover is visible in the Rockies and southern Great Lakes states. VIIRS collects visible and infrared imagery and global observations of land, atmosphere, cryosphere and oceans. That low pressure system located over the south central United States on Jan. 21 is expected to track east across the Tennessee Valley and will give way to a deepening coastal low pressure area. The National Weather Service said "This latter feature takes over and becomes a dominant force in setting up heavy snow bands over the Mid-Atlantic and very gusty winds." The storm system is expected to bring an increased risk of severe weather from far southeastern Texas across southern Louisiana/Mississippi, and into the far western Florida Panhandle on Thursday, Jan. 21. That threat for severe weather will move east as the low pressure area continues heading in that direction. The National Weather Service Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland said "A potentially crippling winter storm is anticipated for portions of the mid-Atlantic Friday into early Saturday. Snowfall may approach two feet for some locations, including the Baltimore and Washington, D.C. metro areas. Farther north, there is uncertainty in snowfall for the New York City-to-Boston corridor. Farther south, significant icing is likely for portions of Kentucky and North Carolina." NASA image use policy. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center enables NASA’s mission through four scientific endeavors: Earth Science, Heliophysics, Solar System Exploration, and Astrophysics. Goddard plays a leading role in NASA’s accomplishments by contributing compelling scientific knowledge to advance the Agency’s mission. Follow us on Twitter Like us on Facebook Find us on Instagram

Series of Storms Battering California Tracked by NASA AIRS Instrument

NASA Image and Video Library

2017-01-13

A series of atmospheric rivers that brought drought-relieving rains, heavy snowfall and flooding to California this week is highlighted in a new movie created with satellite data from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. The images of atmospheric water vapor were collected by AIRS between January 7 and 11. They show the amount of moisture present in the atmosphere and its movement across the Pacific Ocean to the United States, where much of it fell as rain or snow. In early January 2017, the Western U.S. experienced rain and flooding from a series of storms flowing to America on multiple streams of moist air, each individually known as an atmospheric river. Atmospheric rivers are typically 250 to 375 miles (400 to 600 kilometers) wide. The term "Pineapple Express" refers to atmospheric rivers that originate near or just east of the Hawaiian Islands and terminate along the West Coast of North America. Other atmospheric rivers originate in the tropical Western Pacific Ocean and take on a more west-to-east orientation near the U.S. West Coast. Several distinct plumes of moisture are apparent in the AIRS imagery. The first of three atmospheric river events occurred on January 7 and 8. This was a classic Pineapple Express, featuring an uninterrupted supply of heavy moisture drawn up from the deep tropics. This was the wettest storm of the series, producing very heavy rainfall, more than 1 foot (0.3 meter), in parts of Central and Northern California, with relatively smaller amounts of snow at the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada. The second blob of heavy moisture, from January 8 to 10 to the west of California, likely originated thousands of miles to the west, in the tropical Western Pacific. This atmospheric river did not maintain its tropical connection. However, it still produced prodigious rainfall totals in Northern California and much more snow than the first event, since the storm had a more northern and colder trajectory. A third storm, the coldest of the three events, moved through California on January 11 and 12, producing significant rainfall, as well as snow at higher elevations. The movie ends with another atmospheric river attempting to form on January 11 and 12 to the west of Hawaii, transporting moisture into the storm track. Movies are availalbe at http://photojournal.jpl.nasa.gov/catalog/PIA21209

Sea-level rise impacts on the temporal and spatial variability of extreme water levels: A case study for St. Peter-Ording, Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santamaria-Aguilar, S.; Arns, A.; Vafeidis, A. T.

2017-04-01

Both the temporal and spatial variability of storm surge water level (WL) curves are usually not taken into account in flood risk assessments as observational data are often scarce. In addition, sea-level rise (SLR) can further affect the variability of WLs. We analyze the temporal and spatial variability of the WL curve of 75 historical storm surge events that have been numerically simulated for St. Peter-Ording at the German North Sea coast, considering the effects induced by three SLR scenarios (RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5, and a RCP 8.5 high end scenario). We assess potential impacts of these scenarios on two parameters related to flooding: overflow volumes and fullness. Our results indicate that due to both the temporal and spatial variability of those events the resulting overflow volume can be two or even three times greater. We observe a steepening of the WL curve with an increase of the tidal range under the three SLR scenarios, although SLR induced effects are relatively higher for the RCP 4.5. The steepening of the WL curve with SLR produces a reduction of the fullness, but the changes in overflow volumes also depend on the magnitude of the storm surge event.

Characterization and statistical modeling of bacterial (Escherichia coli) outflows from watersheds that discharge into Southern Lake Michigan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olyphant, G.A.; Thomas, Joan; Whitman, R.L.; Harper, D.

2003-01-01

Two watersheds in northwestern Indiana were selected for detailed monitoring of bacterially contaminated discharges (Escherichia coli) into Lake Michigan. A large watershed that drains an urbanized area with treatment plants that release raw sewage during storms discharges into Lake Michigan at the outlet of Burns Ditch. A small watershed drains part of the Great Marsh, a wetland complex that has been disrupted by ditching and limited residential development, at the outlet of Derby Ditch. Monitoring at the outlet of Burns Ditch in 1999 and 2000 indicated that E. coli concentrations vary over two orders of magnitude during storms. During one storm, sewage overflows caused concentrations to increase to more than 10,000 cfu/100 mL for several hours. Monitoring at Derby Ditch from 1997 to 2000 also indicated that E. coli concentrations increase during storms with the highest concentrations generally occurring during rising streamflow. Multiple regression analysis indicated that 60% of the variability in measured outflows of E. coli from Derby Ditch (n = 88) could be accounted for by a model that utilizes continuously measured rainfall, stream discharge, soil temperature and depth to water table in the Great Marsh. A similar analysis indicated that 90% of the variability in measured E. coli concentrations at the outlet of Burns Ditch (n = 43) during storms could be accounted for by a combination of continuously measured water-quality variables including nitrate and ammonium. These models, which utilize data that can be collected on a real-time basis, could form part of an Early Warning System for predicting beach closures.

Survey of minor-to-moderate magnetic storm effects on ionosphere: American sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buresova, Dalia; Lastovicka, Jan; Chum, Jaroslav; Pezzopane, Michael; Staciarini Batista, Inez; Gularte, Erika; Novotna, Dagmar

2014-05-01

The paper is focused on ionospheric reaction to occasional minor-to-moderate magnetic storms above selected ionospheric stations located across the Northern and Southern America. Most of the storms analysed occurred under extremely low solar activity conditions of 2007-2009. We analysed variability of the F2 layer critical frequency foF2 and the F2 layer peak height hmF2 obtained for different latitudinal and longitudinal sectors of both hemispheres for the entire period of selected magnetic storms. Observations were compared with the effects of strong magnetic storms and with the IRI2000 outputs when STORM model option is activated. We analysed ionospheric reaction during each storm phase with main emphasis paid on the recovery phase. In general, storm recovery phase is characterized by an abatement of perturbations and a gradual return to the "ground state" of ionosphere. Magnetospheric substorms, typical for the main phase, as a rule cease during the storm recovery phase. However, observations of stormy ionosphere show significant departures from the climatology also within this phase, which are comparable with those usually observed during the storm main phase. Both positive and negative deviations of foF2 and hmF2 have been observed independent on season and location.

European Science Notes Information Bulletin Reports on Current European and Middle Eastern Science

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-01-01

Geophys. Res. diabatic effects of the midlatitude storm- 73, 487-492 (1968). track clouds on the climate system; 4. J. Testud , G. Breger, P. Amayenc...A. Clough and J. Testud , "The FRONTS- network will probably be to the northwest of Scot- 87 Experiment and Mesoscale Frontal Dy- land. Other

Tracking Dramatic Changes at Hawaii's Only Alpine Lake

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patrick, Matthew R.; Delparte, Donna

2014-04-01

Lake Waiau is a small lake (normally 100 meters in diameter) just below the summit of Mauna Kea Volcano (elevation of 4207 meters) on the island of Hawaii. The only alpine lake in the Hawaiian Islands, it is fed mainly by sporadic winter storms that drop snow in the otherwise arid summit region.

DEVELOPMENT OF HOST-SPECIFIC METAGENOMIC MARKERS FOR MICROBIAL SOURCE TRACKING USING A NOVEL METAGENOMIC APPROACH

EPA Science Inventory

Fecal contamination of source water has always been an important issue to the drinking water industry. Improper disposal of animal waste, leaky septic tanks, storm runoff, and the abundance of wildlife in natural water systems can all be responsible for the spread of enteric path...

KSC-01pp0873

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-16

Workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., prepare to open the solar panel on the GOES-M satellite. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC-01pp0875

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-16

Workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., check the solar panel on the GOES-M satellite. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC01pp0799

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-12

Workers at Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., work on the GOES-M satellite. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is undergoing testing at Astrotech before its scheduled launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

KSC-01pp0881

NASA Image and Video Library

2001-04-16

At Astrotech, Titusville, Fla., a worker checks components of the GOES-M satellite. The GOES-M provides weather imagery and quantitative sounding data used to support weather forecasting, severe storm tracking and meteorological research. The satellite is scheduled to launch July 12 on an Atlas-IIA booster, Centaur upper stage from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station

Examining trends in general fecal indicator bacteria and microbial source tracking genetic markers at non-point source impacted Chicago beaches

EPA Science Inventory

In the Chicago area, treated wastewater and storm water flow through the engineered Chicago River system to the Mississippi River, with the goal to protect Lake Michigan from urban discharges. Therefore, under dry weather conditions, nearby Lake Michigan recreational beaches shou...

Modulation of precipitation by conditional symmetric instability release

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glinton, Michael R.; Gray, Suzanne L.; Chagnon, Jeffrey M.; Morcrette, Cyril J.

2017-03-01

Although many theoretical and observational studies have investigated the mechanism of conditional symmetric instability (CSI) release and associated it with mesoscale atmospheric phenomena such as frontal precipitation bands, cloud heads in rapidly developing extratropical cyclones and sting jets, its climatology and contribution to precipitation have not been extensively documented. The aim of this paper is to quantify the contribution of CSI release, yielding slantwise convection, to climatological precipitation accumulations for the North Atlantic and western Europe. Case studies reveal that CSI release could be common along cold fronts of mature extratropical cyclones and the North Atlantic storm track is found to be a region with large CSI according to two independent CSI metrics. Correlations of CSI with accumulated precipitation are also large in this region and CSI release is inferred to be occurring about 20% of the total time over depths of over 1 km. We conclude that the inability of current global weather forecast and climate prediction models to represent CSI release (due to insufficient resolution yet lack of subgrid parametrization schemes) may lead to errors in precipitation distributions, particularly in the region of the North Atlantic storm track.

Atmospheric Teleconnections From Cumulants

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sabou, F.; Kaspi, Y.; Marston, B.; Schneider, T.

2011-12-01

Multi-point cumulants of fields such as vorticity provide a way to visualize atmospheric teleconnections, complementing other approaches such as the method of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). We calculate equal-time two-point cumulants of the vorticity from NCEP reanalysis data during the period 1980 -- 2010 and from direct numerical simulation (DNS) using an idealized dry general circulation model (GCM) (Schneider and Walker, 2006). Extratropical correlations seen in the NCEP data are qualitatively reproduced by the model. Three- and four-point cumulants accumulated from DNS quantify departures of the probability distribution function from a normal distribution, shedding light on the efficacy of direct statistical simulation (DSS) of atmosphere dynamics by cumulant expansions (Marston, Conover, and Schneider, 2008; Marston 2011). Lagged-time two-point cumulants between temperature gradients and eddy kinetic energy (EKE), accumulated by DNS of an idealized moist aquaplanet GCM (O'Gorman and Schneider, 2008), reveal dynamics of storm tracks. Regions of enhanced baroclinicity (as found along the eastern boundary of continents) lead to a local enhancement of EKE and a suppression of EKE further downstream as the storm track self-destructs (Kaspi and Schneider, 2011).

Exploring Lightning Jump Characteristics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chronis, Themis; Carey, Larry D.; Schultz, Christopher J.; Schultz, Elise; Calhoun, Kristin; Goodman, Steven J.

2014-01-01

This study is concerned with the characteristics of storms exhibiting an abrupt temporal increase in the total lightning flash rate (i.e., lightning jump, LJ). An automated storm tracking method is used to identify storm "clusters" and total lightning activity from three different lightning detection systems over Oklahoma, northern Alabama and Washington, D.C. On average and for different employed thresholds, the clusters that encompass at least one LJ (LJ1) last longer, relate to higher Maximum Expected Size of Hail, Vertical Integrated Liquid and lightning flash rates (area-normalized) than the clusters that did not exhibit any LJ (LJ0). The respective mean values for LJ1 (LJ0) clusters are 80 min (35 min), 14 mm (8 mm), 25 kg per square meter (18 kg per square meter) and 0.05 flash per min per square kilometer (0.01 flash per min per square kilometer). Furthermore, the LJ1 clusters are also characterized by slower decaying autocorrelation functions, a result that implies a less "random" behavior in the temporal flash rate evolution. In addition, the temporal occurrence of the last LJ provides an estimate of the time remaining to the storm's dissipation. Depending of the LJ strength (i.e., varying thresholds), these values typically range between 20-60 min, with stronger jumps indicating more time until storm decay. This study's results support the hypothesis that the LJ is a proxy for the storm's kinematic and microphysical state rather than a coincidental value.

On using scatterometer and altimeter data to improve storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bajo, Marco; Umgiesser, Georg; De Biasio, Francesco; Vignudelli, Stefano; Zecchetto, Stefano

2017-04-01

Satellite data are seldom used in storm surge forecasting. Among the most important issues related to the storm surge forecasting are the quality of the model wind forcing and the initial condition of the sea surface elevation. In this work, focused on storm surge forecasting in the Adriatic Sea, satellite scatterometer wind data are used to correct the wind speed and direction biases of the ECMWF global atmospheric model by tuning the spatial fields, as an alternative to data assimilation. The capability of such an unbiased wind is tested against that of a high resolution wind, produced by a regional non-hydrostatic model. On the other hand, altimeter Total Water Level Envelope (TWLE) data, which provide the sea level elevation, are used to improve the accuracy of the initial state of the model simulations. This is done by assimilating into a storm surge model the TWLE obtained by the altimeter observations along ground tracks, after subtraction of the tidal components. In order to test the methodology, eleven storm surge events recorded in Venice, from 2008 to 2012, have been simulated using different configurations of forcing wind and altimeter data assimilation. Results show that the relative error on the estimation of the maximum surge peak, averaged over the cases considered, decreases from 13% to 7% using both the unbiased wind and the altimeter data assimilation, while forcing the hydrodynamic model with the high resolution wind (no tuning), the altimeter data assimilation reduces the error from 9% to 6%.

The variability of pH in convective storms

Treesearch

Richard G. Semonin

1976-01-01

The rainwater pH was measured in a total of 22 storms which occurred in 1972 and 1974 in the METROMEX (METROpolitan Meteorological EXperiment) rainwater sampling network. The network consists of 81 collectors in an area of 1800 km² over and east of St. Louis, Missouri. The data set is composed of dry...

Assessing the hydrological impacts of Tropical Cyclones on the Carolinas: An observational and modeling based investigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leeper, R. D.; Prat, O. P.; Blanton, B. O.

2012-12-01

During the warm season, the Carolinas are particularly prone to tropical cyclone (TC) activity and can be impacted in many different ways depending on storm track. The coasts of the Carolinas are the most vulnerable areas, but particular situations (Frances and Ivan 2004) affected communities far from the coasts (Prat and Nelson 2012). Regardless of where landfall occurs, TCs are often associated with intense precipitation and strong winds triggering a variety of natural hazards (storm surge, flooding, landslides). The assessment of societal and environmental impacts of TCs requires a suite of observations. The scarcity of station coverage, sensor limitations, and rainfall retrieval uncertainties are issues limiting the ability to assess accurately the impact of extreme precipitation events. Therefore, numerical models, such as the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), can be valuable tools to investigate those impacts at regional and local scales and bridge the gap between observations. The goal of this study is to investigate the impact of TCs across the Carolinas using both observational and modeling technologies, and explore the usefulness of numerical methods in data-scarce regions. To fully assess TC impacts on the Carolinas inhabitants, storms impacting both coastal and inner communities will be selected and high-resolution WRF ensemble simulations generated from a suite of physic schemes for each TC to investigate their impact at finer scales. The ensemble member performance will be evaluated with respect to ground-based and satellite observations. Furthermore, results from the high-resolution WRF simulations, including the average wind-speed and the sea level pressure, will be used with the ADCIRC storm-surge and wave-model (Westerink et al, 2008) to simulate storm surge and waves along the Carolinas coast for TCs travelling along the coast or making landfall. This work aims to provide an assessment of the various types of impacts TCs can have based on their track and other characteristics. Prat, O.P., and B.R. Nelson, 2012. J. Climate. Conditionally Accepted. Westerink, J., R. Luettich, J. Feyen, et al, 2008. Month. Weather Rev., 136, 833-864.

Kinetic energy budgets in areas of convection

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fuelberg, H. E.

1979-01-01

Synoptic scale budgets of kinetic energy are computed using 3 and 6 h data from three of NASA's Atmospheric Variability Experiments (AVE's). Numerous areas of intense convection occurred during the three experiments. Large kinetic energy variability, with periods as short as 6 h, is observed in budgets computed over each entire experiment area and over limited volumes that barely enclose the convection and move with it. Kinetic energy generation and transport processes in the smaller volumes are often a maximum when the enclosed storms are near peak intensity, but the nature of the various energy processes differs between storm cases and seems closely related to the synoptic conditions. A commonly observed energy budget for peak storm intensity indicates that generation of kinetic energy by cross-contour flow is the major energy source while dissipation to subgrid scales is the major sink. Synoptic scale vertical motion transports kinetic energy from lower to upper levels of the atmosphere while low-level horizontal flux convergence and upper-level horizontal divergence also occur. Spatial fields of the energy budget terms show that the storm environment is a major center of energy activity for the entire area.

IDF relationships using bivariate copula for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ariff, N. M.; Jemain, A. A.; Ibrahim, K.; Wan Zin, W. Z.

2012-11-01

SummaryIntensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are used in many hydrologic designs for the purpose of water managements and flood preventions. The IDF curves available in Malaysia are those obtained from univariate analysis approach which only considers the intensity of rainfalls at fixed time intervals. As several rainfall variables are correlated with each other such as intensity and duration, this paper aims to derive IDF points for storm events in Peninsular Malaysia by means of bivariate frequency analysis. This is achieved through utilizing the relationship between storm intensities and durations using the copula method. Four types of copulas; namely the Ali-Mikhail-Haq (AMH), Frank, Gaussian and Farlie-Gumbel-Morgenstern (FGM) copulas are considered because the correlation between storm intensity, I, and duration, D, are negative and these copulas are appropriate when the relationship between the variables are negative. The correlations are attained by means of Kendall's τ estimation. The analysis was performed on twenty rainfall stations with hourly data across Peninsular Malaysia. Using Akaike's Information Criteria (AIC) for testing goodness-of-fit, both Frank and Gaussian copulas are found to be suitable to represent the relationship between I and D. The IDF points found by the copula method are compared to the IDF curves yielded based on the typical IDF empirical formula of the univariate approach. This study indicates that storm intensities obtained from both methods are in agreement with each other for any given storm duration and for various return periods.

Global and European climate impacts of a slowdown of the AMOC in a high resolution GCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jackson, L. C.; Kahana, R.; Graham, T.; Ringer, M. A.; Woollings, T.; Mecking, J. V.; Wood, R. A.

2015-12-01

The impacts of a hypothetical slowdown in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) are assessed in a state-of-the-art global climate model (HadGEM3), with particular emphasis on Europe. This is the highest resolution coupled global climate model to be used to study the impacts of an AMOC slowdown so far. Many results found are consistent with previous studies and can be considered robust impacts from a large reduction or collapse of the AMOC. These include: widespread cooling throughout the North Atlantic and northern hemisphere in general; less precipitation in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes; large changes in precipitation in the tropics and a strengthening of the North Atlantic storm track. The focus on Europe, aided by the increase in resolution, has revealed previously undiscussed impacts, particularly those associated with changing atmospheric circulation patterns. Summer precipitation decreases (increases) in northern (southern) Europe and is associated with a negative summer North Atlantic Oscillation signal. Winter precipitation is also affected by the changing atmospheric circulation, with localised increases in precipitation associated with more winter storms and a strengthened winter storm track. Stronger westerly winds in winter increase the warming maritime effect while weaker westerlies in summer decrease the cooling maritime effect. In the absence of these circulation changes the cooling over Europe's landmass would be even larger in both seasons. The general cooling and atmospheric circulation changes result in weaker peak river flows and vegetation productivity, which may raise issues of water availability and crop production.

Lessons learnt from tropical cyclone losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Honegger, Caspar; Wüest, Marc; Zimmerli, Peter; Schoeck, Konrad

2016-04-01

Swiss Re has a long history in developing natural catastrophe loss models. The tropical cyclone USA and China model are examples for event-based models in their second generation. Both are based on basin-wide probabilistic track sets and calculate explicitly the losses from the sub-perils wind and storm surge in an insurance portfolio. Based on these models, we present two cases studies. China: a view on recent typhoon loss history Over the last 20 years only very few major tropical cyclones have caused severe insurance losses in the Pearl River Delta region and Shanghai, the two main exposure clusters along China's southeast coast. Several storms have made landfall in China every year but most struck areas with relatively low insured values. With this study, we make the point that typhoon landfalls in China have a strong hit-or-miss character and available insured loss experience is too short to form a representative view of risk. Historical storm tracks and a simple loss model applied to a market portfolio - all from publicly available data - are sufficient to illustrate this. An event-based probabilistic model is necessary for a reliable judgement of the typhoon risk in China. New York: current and future tropical cyclone risk In the aftermath of hurricane Sandy 2012, Swiss Re supported the City of New York in identifying ways to significantly improve the resilience to severe weather and climate change. Swiss Re provided a quantitative assessment of potential climate related risks facing the city as well as measures that could reduce those impacts.

Land Cover and Hydrologic Variability in Residential Watersheds: Drivers of N Loss in Sacramento CA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McConaghie, J. B.; Zhou, W.; Cadenasso, M. L.

2011-12-01

A key aspect to understanding N loss from urban systems is the link between landscape heterogeneity and variability in non-point source (NPS) nitrogen (N) flux. Because water transports N across the landscape and into receiving streams as runoff, understanding how landscape heterogeneity influences water quantity and movement is also needed. High variability in N loss has been documented from urban systems. However, typical NPS studies characterize landscape heterogeneity by land use and only weakly explain variability in stream N. Focusing on land cover, rather than land use, may better explain observed variability in N loss because land cover elements may better indicate major drivers of N loss. Also, most studies have been conducted in temperate urban systems with stream flow year round. In semi-arid urban systems, storm flow accounts for the majority of stream discharges, and residential irrigation contributes significantly to flows in the dry season. To address how landscape heterogeneity affects variability in water quantity and quality in urban streams, we examined how land cover influences stream flows and N loss in residential streams of metropolitan Sacramento, CA. We analyzed fine-scale variation in land cover and stream N during base flow and storm events in 4 residential watersheds which differ substantially in land cover. We classified land cover using HERCULES (High Ecological Resolution Classification for Urban Landscapes and Environmental Systems) which was developed specifically for urban systems. HERCULES classifies high-resolution aerial photographs into 5 elements: buildings, pavement, herbaceous and woody vegetation, and bare soil. Streams were sampled for discharge, NO3, and Total N using auto samplers during storms in the 2010-2011 rainy season and monthly in the dry season. Partial correlation analysis and multivariate models describe the relationships between land cover elements, water retention, and stream N in these watersheds. We found an early season flush of N from streams during the first storms, and N levels diminished through progressive storms. Also, N concentrations were higher during the rainy season compared to the dry season. High proportion of impervious cover was associated with greater flow rates overall, while high proportion of herbaceous cover was associated with reduced flow rates during storms. The proportion of pavement in the watersheds, a commonly used indicator of urban intensity, did not strongly correlate with increased levels of stream N except during the flush, but did correlate with the magnitude and timing of flows during storms. However, high proportions of building cover, e.g. residential homes, did correlate with higher N fluxes. The use of fertilizers or enhanced N cycling through vegetation management near residential buildings is a possible source of increased N. Management to reduce aquatic enrichment of N from urban ecosystems may be best directed toward identifying N sources and sinks associated with specific land covers. Management must also account for seasonal dynamics, such as annual hydrologic patterns, which drive the loss of N.

Monitoring storm tide and flooding from Hurricane Matthew along the Atlantic coast of the United States, October 2016

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frantz, Eric R.; Byrne,, Michael L.; Caldwell, Andral W.; Harden, Stephen L.

2017-11-02

IntroductionHurricane Matthew moved adjacent to the coasts of Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. The hurricane made landfall once near McClellanville, South Carolina, on October 8, 2016, as a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) deployed a temporary monitoring network of storm-tide sensors at 284 sites along the Atlantic coast from Florida to North Carolina to record the timing, areal extent, and magnitude of hurricane storm tide and coastal flooding generated by Hurricane Matthew. Storm tide, as defined by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is the water-level rise generated by a combination of storm surge and astronomical tide during a coastal storm.The deployment for Hurricane Matthew was the largest deployment of storm-tide sensors in USGS history and was completed as part of a coordinated Federal emergency response as outlined by the Stafford Act (Public Law 92–288, 42 U.S.C. 5121–5207) under a directed mission assignment by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. In total, 543 high-water marks (HWMs) also were collected after Hurricane Matthew, and this was the second largest HWM recovery effort in USGS history after Hurricane Sandy in 2012.During the hurricane, real-time water-level data collected at temporary rapid deployment gages (RDGs) and long-term USGS streamgage stations were relayed immediately for display on the USGS Flood Event Viewer (https://stn.wim.usgs.gov/FEV/#MatthewOctober2016). These data provided emergency managers and responders with critical information for tracking flood-effected areas and directing assistance to effected communities. Data collected from this hurricane can be used to calibrate and evaluate the performance of storm-tide models for maximum and incremental water level and flood extent, and the site-specific effects of storm tide on natural and anthropogenic features of the environment.

Evaluation of Loss Due to Storm Surge Disasters in China Based on Econometric Model Groups.

PubMed

Jin, Xue; Shi, Xiaoxia; Gao, Jintian; Xu, Tongbin; Yin, Kedong

2018-03-27

Storm surge has become an important factor restricting the economic and social development of China's coastal regions. In order to improve the scientific judgment of future storm surge damage, a method of model groups is proposed to refine the evaluation of the loss due to storm surges. Due to the relative dispersion and poor regularity of the natural property data (login center air pressure, maximum wind speed, maximum storm water, super warning water level, etc.), storm surge disaster is divided based on eight kinds of storm surge disaster grade division methods combined with storm surge water, hypervigilance tide level, and disaster loss. The storm surge disaster loss measurement model groups consist of eight equations, and six major modules are constructed: storm surge disaster in agricultural loss, fishery loss, human resource loss, engineering facility loss, living facility loss, and direct economic loss. Finally, the support vector machine (SVM) model is used to evaluate the loss and the intra-sample prediction. It is indicated that the equations of the model groups can reflect in detail the relationship between the damage of storm surges and other related variables. Based on a comparison of the original value and the predicted value error, the model groups pass the test, providing scientific support and a decision basis for the early layout of disaster prevention and mitigation.

Arctic Storms and Their Influence on Surface Climate in the Chukchi-Beaufort Seas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Y.; Zhang, X.; Rinke, A.; Zhang, J.

2017-12-01

Increases in the frequency and intensity of Arctic storms and resulting weather hazards may endanger the offshore environment, coastal community, and energy infrastructure in the Arctic as sea ice retreats. Advancing ability to identify fine-scale variations in surface climate produced by progressively stronger storm would be extremely helpful to resources management and sustainable development for coastal community. In this study, we analyzed the storms and their impacts on surface climate over the Beaufort-Chukchi seas by employing the date sets from both the hindcast simulations of the coupled Arctic regional climate model HIRHAM-NAOSIM and the recently developed Chukchi-Beaufort High-resolution Atmospheric Reanalysis (CBHAR). Based on the characteristics of spatial pattern and temporal variability of the Arctic storm activity, we categorized storms to three groups with their different origins: the East Siberia Sea, Alaska and the central Arctic Ocean. The storms originating from the central Arctic Ocean have the strongest intensity in winter with relatively less storm number. Storms traveling from Alaska to the Beaufort Sea most frequently occurred in autumn with weaker intensity. A large portion of storms originated from the East Siberia Sea region in summer. Further statistical analysis suggests that increase in surface air temperature and wind speed could be attributed to the increased frequency of storm occurrence in autumn (September to November) along the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea.