Development of a model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States

PubMed Central

Smith, Rebecca L.; Schukken, Ynte H.; Lu, Zhao; Mitchell, Rebecca M.; Grohn, Yrjo T.

2013-01-01

Objective To develop a mathematical model to simulate infection dynamics of Mycobacterium bovis in cattle herds in the United States and predict efficacy of the current national control strategy for tuberculosis in cattle. Design Stochastic simulation model. Sample Theoretical cattle herds in the United States. Procedures A model of within-herd M bovis transmission dynamics following introduction of 1 latently infected cow was developed. Frequency- and density-dependent transmission modes and 3 tuberculin-test based culling strategies (no test-based culling, constant (annual) testing with test-based culling, and the current strategy of slaughterhouse detection-based testing and culling) were investigated. Results were evaluated for 3 herd sizes over a 10-year period and validated via simulation of known outbreaks of M bovis infection. Results On the basis of 1,000 simulations (1000 herds each) at replacement rates typical for dairy cattle (0.33/y), median time to detection of M bovis infection in medium-sized herds (276 adult cattle) via slaughterhouse surveillance was 27 months after introduction, and 58% of these herds would spontaneously clear the infection prior to that time. Sixty-two percent of medium-sized herds without intervention and 99% of those managed with constant test-based culling were predicted to clear infection < 10 years after introduction. The model predicted observed outbreaks best for frequency-dependent transmission, and probability of clearance was most sensitive to replacement rate. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance Although modeling indicated the current national control strategy was sufficient for elimination of M bovis infection from dairy herds after detection, slaughterhouse surveillance was not sufficient to detect M bovis infection in all herds and resulted in subjectively delayed detection, compared with the constant testing method. Further research is required to economically optimize this strategy. PMID:23865885

Scaffolding Mathematical Modelling with a Solution Plan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schukajlow, Stanislaw; Kolter, Jana; Blum, Werner

2015-01-01

In the study presented in this paper, we examined the possibility to scaffold mathematical modelling with strategies. The strategies were prompted using an instrument called "solution plan" as a scaffold. The effects of this step by step instrument on mathematical modelling competency and on self-reported strategies were tested using…

A Comparison of Item Exposure Control Procedures with the Generalized Partial Credit Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sanchez, Edgar Isaac

2008-01-01

To enhance test security of high stakes tests, it is vital to understand the way various exposure control strategies function under various IRT models. To that end the present dissertation focused on the performance of several exposure control strategies under the generalized partial credit model with an item pool of 100 and 200 items. These…

Cost-Effectiveness of Opt-Out Chlamydia Testing for High-Risk Young Women in the U.S.

PubMed

Owusu-Edusei, Kwame; Hoover, Karen W; Gift, Thomas L

2016-08-01

In spite of chlamydia screening recommendations, U.S. testing coverage continues to be low. This study explored the cost-effectiveness of a patient-directed, universal, opportunistic Opt-Out Testing strategy (based on insurance coverage, healthcare utilization, and test acceptance probabilities) for all women aged 15-24 years compared with current Risk-Based Screening (30% coverage) from a societal perspective. Based on insurance coverage (80%); healthcare utilization (83%); and test acceptance (75%), the proposed Opt-Out Testing strategy would have an expected annual testing coverage of approximately 50% for sexually active women aged 15-24 years. A basic compartmental heterosexual transmission model was developed to account for population-level transmission dynamics. Two groups were assumed based on self-reported sexual activity. All model parameters were obtained from the literature. Costs and benefits were tracked over a 50-year period. The relative sensitivity of the estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios to the variables/parameters was determined. This study was conducted in 2014-2015. Based on the model, the Opt-Out Testing strategy decreased the overall chlamydia prevalence by >55% (2.7% to 1.2%). The Opt-Out Testing strategy was cost saving compared with the current Risk-Based Screening strategy. The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was most sensitive to the female pre-opt out prevalence, followed by the probability of female sequelae and discount rate. The proposed Opt-Out Testing strategy was cost saving, improving health outcomes at a lower net cost than current testing. However, testing gaps would remain because many women might not have health insurance coverage, or not utilize health care. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Evaluation of testing strategies to identify infected animals at a single round of testing within dairy herds known to be infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis.

PubMed

More, S J; Cameron, A R; Strain, S; Cashman, W; Ezanno, P; Kenny, K; Fourichon, C; Graham, D

2015-08-01

As part of a broader control strategy within herds known to be infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), individual animal testing is generally conducted to identify infected animals for action, usually culling. Opportunities are now available to quantitatively compare different testing strategies (combinations of tests) in known infected herds. This study evaluates the effectiveness, cost, and cost-effectiveness of different testing strategies to identify infected animals at a single round of testing within dairy herds known to be MAP infected. A model was developed, taking account of both within-herd infection dynamics and test performance, to simulate the use of different tests at a single round of testing in a known infected herd. Model inputs included the number of animals at different stages of infection, the sensitivity and specificity of each test, and the costs of testing and culling. Testing strategies included either milk or serum ELISA alone or with fecal culture in series. Model outputs included effectiveness (detection fraction, the proportion of truly infected animals in the herd that are successfully detected by the testing strategy), cost, and cost-effectiveness (testing cost per true positive detected, total cost per true positive detected). Several assumptions were made: MAP was introduced with a single animal and no management interventions were implemented to limit within-herd transmission of MAP before this test. In medium herds, between 7 and 26% of infected animals are detected at a single round of testing, the former using the milk ELISA and fecal culture in series 5 yr after MAP introduction and the latter using fecal culture alone 15 yr after MAP introduction. The combined costs of testing and culling at a single round of testing increases with time since introduction of MAP infection, with culling costs being much greater than testing costs. The cost-effectiveness of testing varied by testing strategy. It was also greater at 5 yr, compared with 10 or 15 yr, since MAP introduction, highlighting the importance of early detection. Future work is needed to evaluate these testing strategies in subsequent rounds of testing as well as accounting for different herd dynamics and different levels of herd biocontainment. Copyright © 2015 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Applicability of the Compensatory Encoding Model in Foreign Language Reading: An Investigation with Chinese College English Language Learners

PubMed Central

Han, Feifei

2017-01-01

While some first language (L1) reading models suggest that inefficient word recognition and small working memory tend to inhibit higher-level comprehension processes; the Compensatory Encoding Model maintains that slow word recognition and small working memory do not normally hinder reading comprehension, as readers are able to operate metacognitive strategies to compensate for inefficient word recognition and working memory limitation as long as readers process a reading task without time constraint. Although empirical evidence is accumulated for support of the Compensatory Encoding Model in L1 reading, there is lack of research for testing of the Compensatory Encoding Model in foreign language (FL) reading. This research empirically tested the Compensatory Encoding Model in English reading among Chinese college English language learners (ELLs). Two studies were conducted. Study one focused on testing whether reading condition varying time affects the relationship between word recognition, working memory, and reading comprehension. Students were tested on a computerized English word recognition test, a computerized Operation Span task, and reading comprehension in time constraint and non-time constraint reading. The correlation and regression analyses showed that the strength of association was much stronger between word recognition, working memory, and reading comprehension in time constraint than that in non-time constraint reading condition. Study two examined whether FL readers were able to operate metacognitive reading strategies as a compensatory way of reading comprehension for inefficient word recognition and working memory limitation in non-time constraint reading. The participants were tested on the same computerized English word recognition test and Operation Span test. They were required to think aloud while reading and to complete the comprehension questions. The think-aloud protocols were coded for concurrent use of reading strategies, classified into language-oriented strategies, content-oriented strategies, re-reading, pausing, and meta-comment. The correlation analyses showed that while word recognition and working memory were only significantly related to frequency of language-oriented strategies, re-reading, and pausing, but not with reading comprehension. Jointly viewed, the results of the two studies, complimenting each other, supported the applicability of the Compensatory Encoding Model in FL reading with Chinese college ELLs. PMID:28522984

Applicability of the Compensatory Encoding Model in Foreign Language Reading: An Investigation with Chinese College English Language Learners.

PubMed

Han, Feifei

2017-01-01

While some first language (L1) reading models suggest that inefficient word recognition and small working memory tend to inhibit higher-level comprehension processes; the Compensatory Encoding Model maintains that slow word recognition and small working memory do not normally hinder reading comprehension, as readers are able to operate metacognitive strategies to compensate for inefficient word recognition and working memory limitation as long as readers process a reading task without time constraint. Although empirical evidence is accumulated for support of the Compensatory Encoding Model in L1 reading, there is lack of research for testing of the Compensatory Encoding Model in foreign language (FL) reading. This research empirically tested the Compensatory Encoding Model in English reading among Chinese college English language learners (ELLs). Two studies were conducted. Study one focused on testing whether reading condition varying time affects the relationship between word recognition, working memory, and reading comprehension. Students were tested on a computerized English word recognition test, a computerized Operation Span task, and reading comprehension in time constraint and non-time constraint reading. The correlation and regression analyses showed that the strength of association was much stronger between word recognition, working memory, and reading comprehension in time constraint than that in non-time constraint reading condition. Study two examined whether FL readers were able to operate metacognitive reading strategies as a compensatory way of reading comprehension for inefficient word recognition and working memory limitation in non-time constraint reading. The participants were tested on the same computerized English word recognition test and Operation Span test. They were required to think aloud while reading and to complete the comprehension questions. The think-aloud protocols were coded for concurrent use of reading strategies, classified into language-oriented strategies, content-oriented strategies, re-reading, pausing, and meta-comment. The correlation analyses showed that while word recognition and working memory were only significantly related to frequency of language-oriented strategies, re-reading, and pausing, but not with reading comprehension. Jointly viewed, the results of the two studies, complimenting each other, supported the applicability of the Compensatory Encoding Model in FL reading with Chinese college ELLs.

Task-Specific Response Strategy Selection on the Basis of Recent Training Experience

PubMed Central

Fulvio, Jacqueline M.; Green, C. Shawn; Schrater, Paul R.

2014-01-01

The goal of training is to produce learning for a range of activities that are typically more general than the training task itself. Despite a century of research, predicting the scope of learning from the content of training has proven extremely difficult, with the same task producing narrowly focused learning strategies in some cases and broadly scoped learning strategies in others. Here we test the hypothesis that human subjects will prefer a decision strategy that maximizes performance and reduces uncertainty given the demands of the training task and that the strategy chosen will then predict the extent to which learning is transferable. To test this hypothesis, we trained subjects on a moving dot extrapolation task that makes distinct predictions for two types of learning strategy: a narrow model-free strategy that learns an input-output mapping for training stimuli, and a general model-based strategy that utilizes humans' default predictive model for a class of trajectories. When the number of distinct training trajectories is low, we predict better performance for the mapping strategy, but as the number increases, a predictive model is increasingly favored. Consonant with predictions, subject extrapolations for test trajectories were consistent with using a mapping strategy when trained on a small number of training trajectories and a predictive model when trained on a larger number. The general framework developed here can thus be useful both in interpreting previous patterns of task-specific versus task-general learning, as well as in building future training paradigms with certain desired outcomes. PMID:24391490

A testing strategy to predict risk for drug-induced liver injury in humans using high-content screen assays and the 'rule-of-two' model.

PubMed

Chen, Minjun; Tung, Chun-Wei; Shi, Qiang; Guo, Lei; Shi, Leming; Fang, Hong; Borlak, Jürgen; Tong, Weida

2014-07-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a major cause of drug failures in both the preclinical and clinical phase. Consequently, improving prediction of DILI at an early stage of drug discovery will reduce the potential failures in the subsequent drug development program. In this regard, high-content screening (HCS) assays are considered as a promising strategy for the study of DILI; however, the predictive performance of HCS assays is frequently insufficient. In the present study, a new testing strategy was developed to improve DILI prediction by employing in vitro assays that was combined with the RO2 model (i.e., 'rule-of-two' defined by daily dose ≥100 mg/day & logP ≥3). The RO2 model was derived from the observation that high daily doses and lipophilicity of an oral medication were associated with significant DILI risk in humans. In the developed testing strategy, the RO2 model was used for the rational selection of candidates for HCS assays, and only the negatives predicted by the RO2 model were further investigated by HCS. Subsequently, the effects of drug treatment on cell loss, nuclear size, DNA damage/fragmentation, apoptosis, lysosomal mass, mitochondrial membrane potential, and steatosis were studied in cultures of primary rat hepatocytes. Using a set of 70 drugs with clear evidence of clinically relevant DILI, the testing strategy improved the accuracies by 10 % and reduced the number of drugs requiring experimental assessment by approximately 20 %, as compared to the HCS assay alone. Moreover, the testing strategy was further validated by including published data (Cosgrove et al. in Toxicol Appl Pharmacol 237:317-330, 2009) on drug-cytokine-induced hepatotoxicity, which improved the accuracies by 7 %. Taken collectively, the proposed testing strategy can significantly improve the prediction of in vitro assays for detecting DILI liability in an early drug discovery phase.

Strategy Generalization across Orientation Tasks: Testing a Computational Cognitive Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gunzelmann, Glenn

2008-01-01

Humans use their spatial information processing abilities flexibly to facilitate problem solving and decision making in a variety of tasks. This article explores the question of whether a general strategy can be adapted for performing two different spatial orientation tasks by testing the predictions of a computational cognitive model. Human…

Testing adaptive toolbox models: a Bayesian hierarchical approach.

PubMed

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jörg; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2013-01-01

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox framework. How can a toolbox model be quantitatively specified? How can the number of toolbox strategies be limited to prevent uncontrolled strategy sprawl? How can a toolbox model be formally tested against alternative theories? The authors show how these challenges can be met by using Bayesian inference techniques. By means of parameter recovery simulations and the analysis of empirical data across a variety of domains (i.e., judgment and decision making, children's cognitive development, function learning, and perceptual categorization), the authors illustrate how Bayesian inference techniques allow toolbox models to be quantitatively specified, strategy sprawl to be contained, and toolbox models to be rigorously tested against competing theories. The authors demonstrate that their approach applies at the individual level but can also be generalized to the group level with hierarchical Bayesian procedures. The suggested Bayesian inference techniques represent a theoretical and methodological advancement for toolbox theories of cognition and behavior.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of KRAS testing and cetuximab as last-line therapy for colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Shiroiwa, Takeru; Motoo, Yoshiharu; Tsutani, Kiichiro

2010-12-01

Cetuximab, a monoclonal antibody directed against the epidermal growth factor receptor, improves progression-free survival and overall survival in patients with metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC). However, patients with a KRAS gene mutation do not benefit from cetuximab therapy. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis of KRAS testing and cetuximab treatment as last-line therapy for patients with mCRC in Japan. In our analysis, we considered three treatment strategies. In the 'KRAS-testing strategy' (strategy A), KRAS testing was performed to guide treatment: patients with wild-type KRAS received cetuximab, and those with mutant KRAS received best supportive care (BSC). In the 'no-KRAS-testing strategy' (strategy B), genetic testing was not conducted and all patients received cetuximab. In the 'no-cetuximab strategy' (strategy C), genetic testing was not conducted and all patients received BSC. To evaluate the cost effectiveness of KRAS testing, the KRAS-testing strategy was compared with the no-KRAS-testing strategy; to evaluate the cost effectiveness of KRAS testing and cetuximab, the KRAS-testing strategy was compared with the no-cetuximab strategy; and to evaluate the cost effectiveness of cetuximab treatment without KRAS testing, the no-KRAS-testing strategy was compared with the no-cetuximab strategy. A three-state Markov model was used to predict expected costs and outcomes for each group. Outcomes in the model were based on those reported in a retrospective analysis of data from the National Cancer Institute of Canada Clinical Trials Group CO.17 study. We included only direct medical costs from the perspective of the Japanese healthcare payer. A 3% discount rate was used for both costs and outcome. Two outcomes, life-years (LYs) gained and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained, were used to calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Our cost-effectiveness analysis revealed that the KRAS-testing strategy was dominant compared with the no-KRAS-testing strategy, with an expected cost reduction of ¥0.5 million per patient and an estimated budget impact of ¥3-5 billion ($US42-59 million; July 2010 values) per year. The ICER of the KRAS-testing strategy compared with the no-cetuximab strategy was ¥11 million ($US120 000) per LY gained and ¥16 million ($US160 000) per QALY gained, whereas the ICER of the KRAS-testing strategy compared with the no-KRAS-testing strategy was ¥14 million ($US180 000) per LY gained and ¥21 million ($US230 000) per QALY gained. These results were supported by the sensitivity analysis. KRAS testing is recommended before administering cetuximab as last-line therapy for patients with mCRC. However, our analysis suggests that the ICER of cetuximab treatment (with or without KRAS testing) is too high, even if treatment is limited to patients with wild-type KRAS.

Cost-effectiveness of the Carbon-13 Urea Breath Test for the Detection of Helicobacter Pylori

PubMed Central

Masucci, L; Blackhouse, G; Goeree, R

2013-01-01

Objectives This analysis aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of various testing strategies for Helicobacter pylori in patients with uninvestigated dyspepsia and to calculate the budgetary impact of these tests for the province of Ontario. Data Sources Data on the sensitivity and specificity were obtained from the clinical evidence-based analysis. Resource items were obtained from expert opinion, and costs were applied on the basis of published sources as well as expert opinion. Review Methods A decision analytic model was constructed to compare the costs and outcomes (false-positive results, false-negative results, and misdiagnoses avoided) of the carbon-13 (13C) urea breath test (UBT), enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) serology test, and a 2-step strategy of an ELISA serology test and a confirmatory 13C UBT based on the sensitivity and specificity of the tests and prevalence estimates. Results The 2-step strategy is more costly and more effective than the ELISA serology test and results in $210 per misdiagnosis case avoided. The 13C UBT is dominated by the 2-step strategy, i.e., it is more costly and less effective. The budget impact analysis indicates that it will cost $7.9 million more to test a volume of 129,307 patients with the 13C UBT than with ELISA serology, and $4.7 million more to test these patients with the 2-step strategy. Limitations The clinical studies that were pooled varied in the technique used to perform the breath test and in reference standards used to make comparisons with the breath test. However, these parameters were varied in a sensitivity analysis. The economic model was designed to consider intermediate outcomes only (i.e., misdiagnosed cases) and was not a complete model with final patient outcomes (e.g., quality-adjusted life years). Conclusions Results indicate that the 2-step strategy could be economically attractive for the testing of H. pylori. However, testing with the 2-step strategy will cost the Ministry of Health and Long-Term Care $4.7 million more than with the ELISA serology test. PMID:24228083

Disregarding familiarity during recollection attempts: content-specific recapitulation as a retrieval orientation strategy.

PubMed

Gray, Stephen J; Gallo, David A

2015-01-01

People can use a content-specific recapitulation strategy to trigger memories (i.e., mentally reinstating encoding conditions), but how people deploy this strategy is unclear. Is recapitulation naturally used to guide all recollection attempts, or is it only used selectively, after retrieving incomplete information that requires additional monitoring? According to a retrieval orientation model, people use recapitulation whenever they search memory for specific information, regardless of what information might come to mind. In contrast, according to a postretrieval monitoring model, people selectively engage recapitulation only after retrieving ambiguous information in order to evaluate this information and guide additional retrieval attempts. We tested between these models using a criterial recollection task, and by manipulating the strength of ambiguous information associated with to-be-rejected foils (i.e., familiarity or noncriterial information). Replicating prior work, foil rejections were greater when people attempted to recollect targets studied at a semantic level (deep test) compared to an orthographic level (shallow test), implicating more accurate retrieval monitoring. To investigate the role of a recapitulation strategy in this monitoring process, a final test assessed memory for the foils that were earlier processed on these recollection tests. Performance on this foil recognition test suggested that people had engaged in more elaborative content-specific recapitulation when initially tested for deep compared to shallow recollections, and critically, this elaboration effect did not interact with the experimental manipulation of foil strength. These results support the retrieval orientation model, whereby a recapitulation strategy was used to orient retrieval toward specific information during every recollection attempt. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Learning To Spell: Variability, Choice, and Change in Children's Strategy Use.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rittle-Johnson, Bethany; Siegler, Robert S.

1999-01-01

Employed a trial-by-trial analysis of spelling-strategy use to examine whether the overlapping-waves model could account for strategy choices in spelling for children tested in first and second grade. Found that the model was useful for understanding the development of spelling, despite the fact that explicit use of backup strategies had a minimal…

Efficient Testing Combining Design of Experiment and Learn-to-Fly Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murphy, Patrick C.; Brandon, Jay M.

2017-01-01

Rapid modeling and efficient testing methods are important in a number of aerospace applications. In this study efficient testing strategies were evaluated in a wind tunnel test environment and combined to suggest a promising approach for both ground-based and flight-based experiments. Benefits of using Design of Experiment techniques, well established in scientific, military, and manufacturing applications are evaluated in combination with newly developing methods for global nonlinear modeling. The nonlinear modeling methods, referred to as Learn-to-Fly methods, utilize fuzzy logic and multivariate orthogonal function techniques that have been successfully demonstrated in flight test. The blended approach presented has a focus on experiment design and identifies a sequential testing process with clearly defined completion metrics that produce increased testing efficiency.

Regulating approaches to learning: Testing learning strategy convergences across a year at university.

PubMed

Fryer, Luke K; Vermunt, Jan D

2018-03-01

Contemporary models of student learning within higher education are often inclusive of processing and regulation strategies. Considerable research has examined their use over time and their (person-centred) convergence. The longitudinal stability/variability of learning strategy use, however, is poorly understood, but essential to supporting student learning across university experiences. Develop and test a person-centred longitudinal model of learning strategies across the first-year university experience. Japanese university students (n = 933) completed surveys (deep and surface approaches to learning; self, external, and lack of regulation) at the beginning and end of their first year. Following invariance and cross-sectional tests, latent profile transition analysis (LPTA) was undertaken. Initial difference testing supported small but significant differences for self-/external regulation. Fit indices supported a four-group model, consistent across both measurement points. These subgroups were labelled Low Quality (low deep approaches and self-regulation), Low Quantity (low strategy use generally), Average (moderate strategy use), and High Quantity (intense use of all strategies) strategies. The stability of these groups ranged from stable to variable: Average (93% stayers), Low Quality (90% stayers), High Quantity (72% stayers), and Low Quantity (40% stayers). The three largest transitions presented joint shifts in processing/regulation strategy preference across the year, from adaptive to maladaptive and vice versa. Person-centred longitudinal findings presented patterns of learning transitions that different students experience during their first year at university. Stability/variability of students' strategy use was linked to the nature of initial subgroup membership. Findings also indicated strong connections between processing and regulation strategy changes across first-year university experiences. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. © 2017 The British Psychological Society.

Toward a Model of Strategies and Summary Writing Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yang, Hui-Chun

2014-01-01

This study explores the construct of a summarization test task by means of single-group and multigroup structural equation modeling (SEM). It examines the interrelationships between strategy use and performance, drawing on data from 298 Taiwanese undergraduates' summary essays and their self-reported strategy use. Single-group SEM analyses…

An experimental comparison of two adaptation strategies in an adaptive-walls wind-tunnel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, G. P.; Zuppardi, G.; Basciani, M.

1995-08-01

In the present work an experimental comparison is made between two adaptation strategies: the Judd's method and the Everhart's method. A NACA 0012 airfoil has been tested at Mach numbers up to 0.4: models with chords up to 200 mm have been tested in a 200 mm × 200 mm test section. The two strategies, though based on different theoretical approaches, show a fairly good agreement as far as c p distribution on the model, lift and drag curves and residual interference are concerned and agree, in terms of lift curve slope and drag coefficient at zero lift, with the McCroskey correlation.

Exploratory Analyses To Improve Model Fit: Errors Due to Misspecification and a Strategy To Reduce Their Occurrence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Green, Samuel B.; Thompson, Marilyn S.; Poirier, Jennifer

1999-01-01

The use of Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests in specification searches and the efforts that involve the addition of extraneous parameters to models are discussed. Presented are a rationale and strategy for conducting specification searches in two stages that involve adding parameters to LM tests to maximize fit and then deleting parameters not needed…

Modeling the Occupational/Career Decision-Making Processes of Intellectually Gifted Adolescents: A Competing Models Strategy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jung, Jae Yup

2014-01-01

This study developed and empirically tested two related models of the occupational/career decision-making processes of gifted adolescents using a competing models strategy. The two models that guided the study, which acknowledged cultural orientations, social influences from the family, occupational/career values, and characteristics of…

Chronic Modes of Action for Ecotoxicity: Integrated Testing Strategies for the 21st Century, presentation

EPA Science Inventory

This initiative, though focusing perhaps on individual assays at the beginning, recognizes the need for a tiered strategy for ecotoxicity tests that better integrates new techniques (models, in vitro methods, new technologies) to improve ecotoxicity testing as a whole. The reali...

TOXICITY TESTING IN THE 21ST CENTURY: A VISION AND A STRATEGY

PubMed Central

Krewski, Daniel; Acosta, Daniel; Andersen, Melvin; Anderson, Henry; Bailar, John C.; Boekelheide, Kim; Brent, Robert; Charnley, Gail; Cheung, Vivian G.; Green, Sidney; Kelsey, Karl T.; Kerkvliet, Nancy I.; Li, Abby A.; McCray, Lawrence; Meyer, Otto; Patterson, Reid D.; Pennie, William; Scala, Robert A.; Solomon, Gina M.; Stephens, Martin; Yager, James; Zeise, Lauren

2015-01-01

With the release of the landmark report Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, in 2007, precipitated a major change in the way toxicity testing is conducted. It envisions increased efficiency in toxicity testing and decreased animal usage by transitioning from current expensive and lengthy in vivo testing with qualitative endpoints to in vitro toxicity pathway assays on human cells or cell lines using robotic high-throughput screening with mechanistic quantitative parameters. Risk assessment in the exposed human population would focus on avoiding significant perturbations in these toxicity pathways. Computational systems biology models would be implemented to determine the dose-response models of perturbations of pathway function. Extrapolation of in vitro results to in vivo human blood and tissue concentrations would be based on pharmacokinetic models for the given exposure condition. This practice would enhance human relevance of test results, and would cover several test agents, compared to traditional toxicological testing strategies. As all the tools that are necessary to implement the vision are currently available or in an advanced stage of development, the key prerequisites to achieving this paradigm shift are a commitment to change in the scientific community, which could be facilitated by a broad discussion of the vision, and obtaining necessary resources to enhance current knowledge of pathway perturbations and pathway assays in humans and to implement computational systems biology models. Implementation of these strategies would result in a new toxicity testing paradigm firmly based on human biology. PMID:20574894

Agent based models for testing city evacuation strategies under a flood event as strategy to reduce flood risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Medina, Neiler; Sanchez, Arlex; Nokolic, Igor; Vojinovic, Zoran

2016-04-01

This research explores the uses of Agent Based Models (ABM) and its potential to test large scale evacuation strategies in coastal cities at risk from flood events due to extreme hydro-meteorological events with the final purpose of disaster risk reduction by decreasing human's exposure to the hazard. The first part of the paper corresponds to the theory used to build the models such as: Complex adaptive systems (CAS) and the principles and uses of ABM in this field. The first section outlines the pros and cons of using AMB to test city evacuation strategies at medium and large scale. The second part of the paper focuses on the central theory used to build the ABM, specifically the psychological and behavioral model as well as the framework used in this research, specifically the PECS reference model is cover in this section. The last part of this section covers the main attributes or characteristics of human beings used to described the agents. The third part of the paper shows the methodology used to build and implement the ABM model using Repast-Symphony as an open source agent-based modelling and simulation platform. The preliminary results for the first implementation in a region of the island of Sint-Maarten a Dutch Caribbean island are presented and discussed in the fourth section of paper. The results obtained so far, are promising for a further development of the model and its implementation and testing in a full scale city

Modelling and operation strategies of DLR's large scale thermocline test facility (TESIS)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Odenthal, Christian; Breidenbach, Nils; Bauer, Thomas

2017-06-01

In this work an overview of the TESIS:store thermocline test facility and its current construction status will be given. Based on this, the TESIS:store facility using sensible solid filler material is modelled with a fully transient model, implemented in MATLAB®. Results in terms of the impact of filler site and operation strategies will be presented. While low porosity and small particle diameters for the filler material are beneficial, operation strategy is one key element with potential for optimization. It is shown that plant operators have to ponder between utilization and exergetic efficiency. Different durations of the charging and discharging period enable further potential for optimizations.

Efficiency of a clinical prediction model for selective rapid testing in children with pharyngitis: A prospective, multicenter study

PubMed Central

Cohen, Robert; Bidet, Philippe; Elbez, Annie; Levy, Corinne; Bossuyt, Patrick M.; Chalumeau, Martin

2017-01-01

Background There is controversy whether physicians can rely on signs and symptoms to select children with pharyngitis who should undergo a rapid antigen detection test (RADT) for group A streptococcus (GAS). Our objective was to evaluate the efficiency of signs and symptoms in selectively testing children with pharyngitis. Materials and methods In this multicenter, prospective, cross-sectional study, French primary care physicians collected clinical data and double throat swabs from 676 consecutive children with pharyngitis; the first swab was used for the RADT and the second was used for a throat culture (reference standard). We developed a logistic regression model combining signs and symptoms with GAS as the outcome. We then derived a model-based selective testing strategy, assuming that children with low and high calculated probability of GAS (<0.12 and >0.85) would be managed without the RADT. Main outcomes and measures were performance of the model (c-index and calibration) and efficiency of the model-based strategy (proportion of participants in whom RADT could be avoided). Results Throat culture was positive for GAS in 280 participants (41.4%). Out of 17 candidate signs and symptoms, eight were retained in the prediction model. The model had an optimism-corrected c-index of 0.73; calibration of the model was good. With the model-based strategy, RADT could be avoided in 6.6% of participants (95% confidence interval 4.7% to 8.5%), as compared to a RADT-for-all strategy. Conclusions This study demonstrated that relying on signs and symptoms for selectively testing children with pharyngitis is not efficient. We recommend using a RADT in all children with pharyngitis. PMID:28235012

Efficiency of a clinical prediction model for selective rapid testing in children with pharyngitis: A prospective, multicenter study.

PubMed

Cohen, Jérémie F; Cohen, Robert; Bidet, Philippe; Elbez, Annie; Levy, Corinne; Bossuyt, Patrick M; Chalumeau, Martin

2017-01-01

There is controversy whether physicians can rely on signs and symptoms to select children with pharyngitis who should undergo a rapid antigen detection test (RADT) for group A streptococcus (GAS). Our objective was to evaluate the efficiency of signs and symptoms in selectively testing children with pharyngitis. In this multicenter, prospective, cross-sectional study, French primary care physicians collected clinical data and double throat swabs from 676 consecutive children with pharyngitis; the first swab was used for the RADT and the second was used for a throat culture (reference standard). We developed a logistic regression model combining signs and symptoms with GAS as the outcome. We then derived a model-based selective testing strategy, assuming that children with low and high calculated probability of GAS (<0.12 and >0.85) would be managed without the RADT. Main outcomes and measures were performance of the model (c-index and calibration) and efficiency of the model-based strategy (proportion of participants in whom RADT could be avoided). Throat culture was positive for GAS in 280 participants (41.4%). Out of 17 candidate signs and symptoms, eight were retained in the prediction model. The model had an optimism-corrected c-index of 0.73; calibration of the model was good. With the model-based strategy, RADT could be avoided in 6.6% of participants (95% confidence interval 4.7% to 8.5%), as compared to a RADT-for-all strategy. This study demonstrated that relying on signs and symptoms for selectively testing children with pharyngitis is not efficient. We recommend using a RADT in all children with pharyngitis.

Conducting field studies for testing pesticide leaching models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Smith, Charles N.; Parrish, Rudolph S.; Brown, David S.

1990-01-01

A variety of predictive models are being applied to evaluate the transport and transformation of pesticides in the environment. These include well known models such as the Pesticide Root Zone Model (PRZM), the Risk of Unsaturated-Saturated Transport and Transformation Interactions for Chemical Concentrations Model (RUSTIC) and the Groundwater Loading Effects of Agricultural Management Systems Model (GLEAMS). The potentially large impacts of using these models as tools for developing pesticide management strategies and regulatory decisions necessitates development of sound model validation protocols. This paper offers guidance on many of the theoretical and practical problems encountered in the design and implementation of field-scale model validation studies. Recommendations are provided for site selection and characterization, test compound selection, data needs, measurement techniques, statistical design considerations and sampling techniques. A strategy is provided for quantitatively testing models using field measurements.

Long-term Cost-Effectiveness of Diagnostic Tests for Assessing Stable Chest Pain: Modeled Analysis of Anatomical and Functional Strategies.

PubMed

Bertoldi, Eduardo G; Stella, Steffan F; Rohde, Luis E; Polanczyk, Carisi A

2016-05-01

Several tests exist for diagnosing coronary artery disease, with varying accuracy and cost. We sought to provide cost-effectiveness information to aid physicians and decision-makers in selecting the most appropriate testing strategy. We used the state-transitions (Markov) model from the Brazilian public health system perspective with a lifetime horizon. Diagnostic strategies were based on exercise electrocardiography (Ex-ECG), stress echocardiography (ECHO), single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT), computed tomography coronary angiography (CTA), or stress cardiac magnetic resonance imaging (C-MRI) as the initial test. Systematic review provided input data for test accuracy and long-term prognosis. Cost data were derived from the Brazilian public health system. Diagnostic test strategy had a small but measurable impact in quality-adjusted life-years gained. Switching from Ex-ECG to CTA-based strategies improved outcomes at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 3100 international dollars per quality-adjusted life-year. ECHO-based strategies resulted in cost and effectiveness almost identical to CTA, and SPECT-based strategies were dominated because of their much higher cost. Strategies based on stress C-MRI were most effective, but the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio vs CTA was higher than the proposed willingness-to-pay threshold. Invasive strategies were dominant in the high pretest probability setting. Sensitivity analysis showed that results were sensitive to costs of CTA, ECHO, and C-MRI. Coronary CT is cost-effective for the diagnosis of coronary artery disease and should be included in the Brazilian public health system. Stress ECHO has a similar performance and is an acceptable alternative for most patients, but invasive strategies should be reserved for patients at high risk. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Efficacy of antibiotic treatment and test-based culling strategies for eradicating brucellosis in commercial swine herds.

PubMed

Dieste-Pérez, L; Frankena, K; Blasco, J M; Muñoz, P M; de Jong, M C M

2016-04-01

Swine brucellosis caused by Brucella suis biovar 2 is an emerging disease in continental Europe. Without effective vaccines being available, the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) recommends the full depopulation of infected herds as the only strategy to eradicate B. suis outbreaks. Using data collected from 8 herds suffering natural swine brucellosis outbreaks, we assessed the efficacy of four control strategies: (i) oxytetracycline treatment only, as a default scenario, (ii) oxytetracycline treatment combined with skin testing and removal of positive animals, (iii) oxytetracycline treatment combined with serological testing (Rose Bengal test-RBT-and indirect ELISA -iELISA-) and removal of seropositive animals and (iv) oxytetracycline treatment combined with both serological (RBT/iELISA) and skin testing and removal of positive animals. A Susceptible-Infectious-Removal model was used to estimate the reproduction ratio (R) for each strategy. According to this model, the oxytetracycline treatment alone was not effective enough to eradicate the infection. However, this antibiotic treatment combined with diagnostic testing at 4-monthly intervals plus immediate removal of positive animals showed to be effective to eradicate brucellosis independent of the diagnostic test strategy used in an acceptable time interval (1-2 years), depending on the initial number of infected animals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Improving text comprehension strategies in upper primary school children: a design experiment.

PubMed

De Corte, E; Verschaffel, L; Van De Ven, A

2001-12-01

With respect to the acquisition of competence in reading, new standards for primary education stress more than before the importance of learning and teaching cognitive and metacognitive strategies that facilitate text comprehension. Therefore, there is a need to design a research-based instructional approach to strategic reading comprehension. The design experiment aimed at developing, implementing and evaluating a research-based, but also practically applicable learning environment for enhancing skilled strategy use in upper primary school children when reading a text. Four text comprehension strategies (activating prior knowledge, clarifying difficult words, making a schematic representation of the text, and formulating the main idea) and a metacognitive strategy (regulating one's own reading process) were trained through a variety of highly interactive instructional techniques, namely modelling, whole class discussion, and small group work in the format of reciprocal teaching. Participants in the study were four experimental 5th grade classes (79 children) and eight comparable control classes (149 pupils). The effects of the learning environment were measured using a pretest-post-test-retention design. Multilevel hierarchical linear regression models were used to analyse the quantitative data of a Reading Strategy Test, a standardised Reading Comprehension Test, a Reading Attitude Scale, a Transfer Test and an interview about strategy use during reading. The data of the Reading Strategy Test, the Transfer Test and the interviews about strategy use showed that the experimental group out-performed the control group in terms of the strategy adoption and application during text reading. Whilst the experimental group also scored higher on the Reading Comprehension Test than the control group, the difference was not significant. This design experiment shows that it is possible to foster pupils' use and transfer of strategic reading comprehension skills in regular classrooms by immersing them in a powerful learning environment. But this intervention does not automatically result in improvement of performance on a standardised reading comprehension test.

Secondary Students' Dynamic Modeling Processes: Analyzing, Reasoning About, Synthesizing, and Testing Models of Stream Ecosystems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratford, Steven J.; Krajeik, Joseph; Soloway, Elliot

This paper presents the results of a study of the cognitive strategies in which ninth-grade science students engaged as they used a learner-centered dynamic modeling tool (called Model-It) to make original models based upon stream ecosystem scenarios. The research questions were: (1) In what Cognitive Strategies for Modeling (analyzing, reasoning,…

Structural Design Strategies for Improved Small Overlap Crashworthiness Performance.

PubMed

Mueller, Becky C; Brethwaite, Andrew S; Zuby, David S; Nolan, Joseph M

2014-11-01

In 2012, the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) began a 64 km/h small overlap frontal crash test consumer information test program. Thirteen automakers already have redesigned models to improve test performance. One or more distinct strategies are evident in these redesigns: reinforcement of the occupant compartment, use of energy-absorbing fender structures, and the addition of engagement structures to induce vehicle lateral translation. Each strategy influences vehicle kinematics, posing additional challenges for the restraint systems. The objective of this two-part study was to examine how vehicles were modified to improve small overlap test performance and then to examine how these modifications affect dummy response and restraint system performance. Among eight models tested before and after design changes, occupant compartment intrusion reductions ranged from 6 cm to 45 cm, with the highest reductions observed in models with the largest number of modifications. All redesigns included additional occupant compartment reinforcement, one-third added structures to engage the barrier, and two modified a shotgun load path. Designs with engagement structures produced greater glance-off from the barrier and exhibited lower delta Vs but experienced more lateral outboard motion of the dummy. Designs with heavy reinforcement of the occupant compartment had higher vehicle accelerations and delta V. In three cases, these apparent trade-offs were not well addressed by concurrent changes in restraint systems and resulted in increased injury risk compared with the original tests. Among the 36 models tested after design changes, the extent of design changes correlated to structural performance. Half of the vehicles with the lowest intrusion levels incorporated aspects of all three design strategies. Vehicle kinematics and dummy and restraint system characteristics were similar to those observed in the before/after pairs. Different combinations of structural improvement strategies for improving small overlap test performance were found to be effective in reducing occupant compartment intrusion and improving dummy kinematics in the IIHS small overlap test with modest weight increase.

SP-100 initial startup and restart control strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halfen, Frank J.; Wong, Kwok K.; Switick, Dennis M.; Shukla, Jaikaran N.

Startup control strategies for SP-100 are described. Revised control and operating strategies are discussed which have been developed and tested using the SP-100 dynamic simulation model Aries-GFS (Generic Flight System).

Multilevel SEM Strategies for Evaluating Mediation in Three-Level Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Preacher, Kristopher J.

2011-01-01

Strategies for modeling mediation effects in multilevel data have proliferated over the past decade, keeping pace with the demands of applied research. Approaches for testing mediation hypotheses with 2-level clustered data were first proposed using multilevel modeling (MLM) and subsequently using multilevel structural equation modeling (MSEM) to…

An Economic Evaluation of Preclinical Testing Strategies Compared to the Compulsory Scrapie Flock Scheme in the Control of Classical Scrapie

PubMed Central

Hawkins, Neil; Houston, Fiona; Fryer, Helen; Kao, Rowland

2012-01-01

Cost-benefit is rarely combined with nonlinear dynamic models when evaluating control options for infectious diseases. The current strategy for scrapie in Great Britain requires that all genetically susceptible livestock in affected flocks be culled (Compulsory Scrapie Flock Scheme or CSFS). However, this results in the removal of many healthy sheep, and a recently developed pre-clinical test for scrapie now offers a strategy based on disease detection. We explore the flock level cost-effectiveness of scrapie control using a deterministic transmission model and industry estimates of costs associated with genotype testing, pre-clinical tests and the value of a sheep culled. Benefit was measured in terms of the reduction in the number of infected sheep sold on, compared to a baseline strategy of doing nothing, using Incremental Cost Effectiveness analysis to compare across strategies. As market data was not available for pre-clinical testing, a threshold analysis was used to set a unit-cost giving equal costs for CSFS and multiple pre-clinical testing (MT, one test each year for three consecutive years). Assuming a 40% within-flock proportion of susceptible genotypes and a test sensitivity of 90%, a single test (ST) was cheaper but less effective than either the CSFS or MT strategies (30 infected-sales-averted over the lifetime of the average epidemic). The MT strategy was slightly less effective than the CSFS and would be a dominated strategy unless preclinical testing was cheaper than the threshold price of £6.28, but may be appropriate for flocks with particularly valuable livestock. Though the ST is not currently recommended, the proportion of susceptible genotypes in the national flock is likely to continue to decrease; this may eventually make it a cost-effective alternative to the MT or CSFS. PMID:22412943

Models and Messengers of Resilience: A Theoretical Model of College Students' Resilience, Regulatory Strategy Use, and Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Marcus L.; Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Kestler, Jessica L.; Cordova, Jackie R.

2015-01-01

We tested a theoretical model of college students' ratings of messengers of resilience and models of resilience, students' own perceived resilience, regulatory strategy use and achievement. A total of 116 undergraduates participated in this study. The results of a path analysis indicated that ratings of models of resilience had a direct effect on…

An Examination of Strategy Implementation During Abstract Nonlinguistic Category Learning in Aphasia.

PubMed

Vallila-Rohter, Sofia; Kiran, Swathi

2015-08-01

Our purpose was to study strategy use during nonlinguistic category learning in aphasia. Twelve control participants without aphasia and 53 participants with aphasia (PWA) completed a computerized feedback-based category learning task consisting of training and testing phases. Accuracy rates of categorization in testing phases were calculated. To evaluate strategy use, strategy analyses were conducted over training and testing phases. Participant data were compared with model data that simulated complex multi-cue, single feature, and random pattern strategies. Learning success and strategy use were evaluated within the context of standardized cognitive-linguistic assessments. Categorization accuracy was higher among control participants than among PWA. The majority of control participants implemented suboptimal or optimal multi-cue and single-feature strategies by testing phases of the experiment. In contrast, a large subgroup of PWA implemented random patterns, or no strategy, during both training and testing phases of the experiment. Person-to-person variability arises not only in category learning ability but also in the strategies implemented to complete category learning tasks. PWA less frequently developed effective strategies during category learning tasks than control participants. Certain PWA may have impairments of strategy development or feedback processing not captured by language and currently probed cognitive abilities.

Economic Analysis of Alternative Strategies for Detection of ALK Rearrangements in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Doshi, Shivang; Ray, David; Stein, Karen; Zhang, Jie; Koduru, Prasad; Fogt, Franz; Wellman, Axel; Wat, Ricky; Mathews, Charles

2016-01-06

Identification of alterations in ALK gene and development of ALK-directed therapies have increased the need for accurate and efficient detection methodologies. To date, research has focused on the concordance between the two most commonly used technologies, fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) and immunohistochemistry (IHC). However, inter-test concordance reflects only one, albeit important, aspect of the diagnostic process; laboratories, hospitals, and payors must understand the cost and workflow of ALK rearrangement detection strategies. Through literature review combined with interviews of pathologists and laboratory directors in the U.S. and Europe, a cost-impact model was developed that compared four alternative testing strategies-IHC only, FISH only, IHC pre-screen followed by FISH confirmation, and parallel testing by both IHC and FISH. Interviews were focused on costs of reagents, consumables, equipment, and personnel. The resulting model showed that testing by IHC alone cost less ($90.07 in the U.S., $68.69 in Europe) than either independent or parallel testing by both FISH and IHC ($441.85 in the U.S. and $279.46 in Europe). The strategies differed in cost of execution, turnaround time, reimbursement, and number of positive results detected, suggesting that laboratories must weigh the costs and the clinical benefit of available ALK testing strategies.

The role of in vitro methods as alternatives to animals in toxicity testing.

PubMed

Anadón, Arturo; Martínez, María Aranzazu; Castellano, Victor; Martínez-Larrañaga, María Rosa

2014-01-01

It is accepted that animal testing should be reduced, refined or replaced as far as it is practicably possible. There are also a wide variety of in vitro models, which are used as screening studies and mechanistic investigations. The ability of an in vitro assay to be reliable, biomedically, is essential in pharmaceutical development. Furthermore, it is necessary that cells used in in vitro testing mimic the phenotype of cells within the human target tissue. The focus of this review article is to identify the key points of in vitro assays. In doing so, the authors take into account the chemical agents that are assessed and the integrated in vitro testing strategies. There is a transfer of toxicological data from primary in vivo animal studies to in vitro assays. The key element for designing an integrated in vitro testing strategy is summarized as follows: exposure modeling of chemical agents for in vitro testing; data gathering, sharing and read-across for testing a class of chemical; a battery of tests to assemble a broad spectrum of data on different mechanisms of action to predict toxic effects; and applicability of the test and the integrated in vitro testing strategies and flexibility to adjust the integrated in vitro testing strategies to test substance. While these methods will be invaluable if effective, more studies must be done to ensure reliability and suitability of these tests for humans.

Cost-effective management of women with minor cervical lesions: Revisiting the application of HPV DNA testing.

PubMed

Pedersen, Kine; Burger, Emily A; Sy, Stephen; Kristiansen, Ivar S; Kim, Jane J

2016-11-01

Lack of consensus in management guidelines for women with minor cervical lesions, coupled with novel screening approaches, such as human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping, necessitate revisiting prevention policies. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness and resource trade-offs of alternative triage strategies to inform cervical cancer prevention in Norway. We used a decision-analytic model to compare the lifetime health and economic consequences associated with ten novel candidate approaches to triage women with minor cervical lesions. Candidate strategies varied by: 1) the triage test(s): HPV testing in combination with cytology, HPV testing alone with or without genotyping for HPV-16 and -18, and immediate colposcopy, and 2) the length of time between index and triage testing (i.e., 6, 12 or 18months). Model outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime societal costs, and resource use (e.g., colposcopy referrals). The current Norwegian guidelines were less effective and more costly than candidate strategies. Given a commonly-cited willingness-to-pay threshold in Norway of $100,000 per QALY gained, the preferred strategy involved HPV genotyping with immediate colposcopy referral for HPV-16 or -18 positive and repeat HPV testing at 12months for non-HPV-16 or -18 positive ($78,010 per QALY gained). Differences in health benefits among candidate strategies were small, while resource use varied substantially. More effective strategies required a moderate increase in colposcopy referrals (e.g., a 9% increase for the preferred strategy) compared with current levels. New applications of HPV testing may improve management of women with minor cervical lesions, yet are accompanied by a trade-off of increased follow-up procedures. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost-effective management of women with minor cervical lesions: Revisiting the application of HPV DNA testing

PubMed Central

Pedersen, Kine; Burger, Emily A.; Sy, Stephen; Kristiansen, Ivar S.; Kim, Jane J.

2016-01-01

Background Lack of consensus in management guidelines for women with minor cervical lesions, coupled with novel screening approaches, such as human papillomavirus (HPV) genotyping, necessitate revisiting prevention policies. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness and resource trade-offs of alternative triage strategies to inform cervical cancer prevention in Norway. Methods We used a decision-analytic model to compare the lifetime health and economic consequences associated with ten novel candidate approaches to triage women with minor cervical lesions. Candidate strategies varied by: 1) the triage test(s): HPV testing in combination with cytology, HPV testing alone with or without genotyping for HPV-16 and-18, and immediate colposcopy, and 2) the length of time between index and triage testing (i.e., 6, 12 or 18 months). Model outcomes included quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime societal costs, and resource use (e.g., colposcopy referrals). Results The current Norwegian guidelines were less effective and more costly than candidate strategies. Given a commonly-cited willingness-to-pay threshold in Norway of $100,000 per QALY gained, the preferred strategy involved HPV genotyping with immediate colposcopy referral for HPV-16 or -18 positive and repeat HPV testing at 12 months for non-HPV-16 or -18 positive ($78,010 per QALY gained). Differences in health benefits among candidate strategies were small, while resource use varied substantially. More effective strategies required a moderate increase in colposcopy referrals (e.g., a 9% increase for the preferred strategy) compared with current levels. Conclusion New applications of HPV testing may improve management for women with minor cervical lesions, yet are accompanied by a trade-off of increased follow-up procedures. PMID:27542966

Model updating strategy for structures with localised nonlinearities using frequency response measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xing; Hill, Thomas L.; Neild, Simon A.; Shaw, Alexander D.; Haddad Khodaparast, Hamed; Friswell, Michael I.

2018-02-01

This paper proposes a model updating strategy for localised nonlinear structures. It utilises an initial finite-element (FE) model of the structure and primary harmonic response data taken from low and high amplitude excitations. The underlying linear part of the FE model is first updated using low-amplitude test data with established techniques. Then, using this linear FE model, the nonlinear elements are localised, characterised, and quantified with primary harmonic response data measured under stepped-sine or swept-sine excitations. Finally, the resulting model is validated by comparing the analytical predictions with both the measured responses used in the updating and with additional test data. The proposed strategy is applied to a clamped beam with a nonlinear mechanism and good agreements between the analytical predictions and measured responses are achieved. Discussions on issues of damping estimation and dealing with data from amplitude-varying force input in the updating process are also provided.

Network simulation modeling of equine infectious anemia in the non-racehorse population in Japan.

PubMed

Hayama, Yoko; Kobayashi, Sota; Nishida, Takeshi; Muroga, Norihiko; Tsutsui, Toshiyuki

2012-01-01

An equine infectious anemia (EIA) transmission model was developed by constructing a network structure of horse movement patterns in a non-racehorse population. This model was then used to evaluate the effectiveness and efficiency of several EIA surveillance strategies. Because EIA had not been detected in Japan since 1993, it was appropriate to review the current surveillance strategy, which aims to eradicate EIA by intensive testing, and to consider alternative strategies suitable for the current EIA status in Japan. The non-racehorse population was divided into four sectors based on horse usage: the equestrian sector, private owner sector, exhibition sector, and fattening sector. To evaluate the risk of disease spread within and between sectors accompanied by horse movements, a stochastic individual-based network model was developed based on a previous survey of horse movement patterns. Surveillance parameters such as targeting sectors and frequency of testing were added into the model to compare surveillance strategies. The disease spread heterogeneously among sectors. Infection occurred mainly in the equestrian sector; the infection was less disseminated in other sectors. Therefore, we considered that the equestrian sector posed a higher risk of disease dissemination within and between sectors through horse movements. However, surveillance strategies targeting only the equestrian sector were not effective enough for early detection of the disease. Alternatively, targeting horses that moved permanently and those in the private owner sector in addition to the equestrian sector is recommended to achieve effectiveness equivalent to that of the current surveillance. In terms of surveillance efficacy, by increasing the testing interval (once yearly to once every 3 years), this testing scheme could reduce the number of tested horses to 44% of the current surveillance, while maintaining almost equivalent effectiveness. Intensive strategies targeting high-risk populations are considered to enhance effectiveness and efficiency of surveillance. The approach in this study may be helpful in the decision-making process that is involved in setting up strategies for risk-based surveillance. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Genetic testing in patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Lala, A; Berger, J S; Sharma, G; Hochman, J S; Scott Braithwaite, R; Ladapo, J A

2013-01-01

The CYP2C19 genotype is a predictor of adverse cardiovascular events in acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) treated with clopidogrel. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a CYP2C19*2 genotype-guided strategy of antiplatelet therapy in ACS patients undergoing PCI, compared with two 'no testing' strategies (empiric clopidogrel or prasugrel). We developed a Markov model to compare three strategies. The model captured adverse cardiovascular events and antiplatelet-related complications. Costs were expressed in 2010 US dollars and estimated using diagnosis-related group codes and Medicare reimbursement rates. The net wholesale price for prasugrel was estimated as $5.45 per day. A generic estimate for clopidogrel of $1.00 per day was used and genetic testing was assumed to cost $500. Base case analyses demonstrated little difference between treatment strategies. The genetic testing-guided strategy yielded the most QALYs and was the least costly. Over 15 months, total costs were $18 lower with a gain of 0.004 QALY in the genotype-guided strategy compared with empiric clopidogrel, and $899 lower with a gain of 0.0005 QALY compared with empiric prasugrel. The strongest predictor of the preferred strategy was the relative risk of thrombotic events in carriers compared with wild-type individuals treated with clopidogrel. Above a 47% increased risk, a genotype-guided strategy was the dominant strategy. Above a clopidogrel cost of $3.96 per day, genetic testing was no longer dominant but remained cost-effective. Among ACS patients undergoing PCI, a genotype-guided strategy yields similar outcomes to empiric approaches to treatment, but is marginally less costly and more effective. © 2012 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis.

Economic Evaluation of Companion Diagnostic Testing for EGFR Mutations and First-Line Targeted Therapy in Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients in South Korea.

PubMed

Lim, Eun-A; Lee, Haeyoung; Bae, Eunmi; Lim, Jaeok; Shin, Young Kee; Choi, Sang-Eun

2016-01-01

As targeted therapy becomes increasingly important, diagnostic techniques for identifying targeted biomarkers have also become an emerging issue. The study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of treating patients as guided by epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutation status compared with a no-testing strategy that is the current clinical practice in South Korea. A cost-utility analysis was conducted to compare an EGFR mutation testing strategy with a no-testing strategy from the Korean healthcare payer's perspective. The study population consisted of patients with stage 3b and 4 lung adenocarcinoma. A decision tree model was employed to select the appropriate treatment regimen according to the results of EGFR mutation testing and a Markov model was constructed to simulate disease progression of advanced non-small cell lung cancer. The length of a Markov cycle was one month, and the time horizon was five years (60 cycles). In the base case analysis, the testing strategy was a dominant option. Quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYs) were 0.556 and 0.635, and total costs were $23,952 USD and $23,334 USD in the no-testing and testing strategy respectively. The sensitivity analyses showed overall robust results. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) increased when the number of patients to be treated with erlotinib increased, due to the high cost of erlotinib. Treating advanced adenocarcinoma based on EGFR mutation status has beneficial effects and saves the cost compared to no testing strategy in South Korea. However, the cost-effectiveness of EGFR mutation testing was heavily affected by the cost-effectiveness of the targeted therapy.

Improve SSME power balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karr, Gerald R.

1992-01-01

Effort was dedicated to development and testing of a formal strategy for reconciling uncertain test data with physically limited computational prediction. Specific weaknesses in the logical structure of the current Power Balance Model (PBM) version are described with emphasis given to the main routing subroutines BAL and DATRED. Selected results from a variational analysis of PBM predictions are compared to Technology Test Bed (TTB) variational study results to assess PBM predictive capability. The motivation for systematic integration of uncertain test data with computational predictions based on limited physical models is provided. The theoretical foundation for the reconciliation strategy developed in this effort is presented, and results of a reconciliation analysis of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high pressure fuel side turbopump subsystem are examined.

ODECS -- A computer code for the optimal design of S.I. engine control strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arsie, I.; Pianese, C.; Rizzo, G.

1996-09-01

The computer code ODECS (Optimal Design of Engine Control Strategies) for the design of Spark Ignition engine control strategies is presented. This code has been developed starting from the author`s activity in this field, availing of some original contributions about engine stochastic optimization and dynamical models. This code has a modular structure and is composed of a user interface for the definition, the execution and the analysis of different computations performed with 4 independent modules. These modules allow the following calculations: (1) definition of the engine mathematical model from steady-state experimental data; (2) engine cycle test trajectory corresponding to amore » vehicle transient simulation test such as ECE15 or FTP drive test schedule; (3) evaluation of the optimal engine control maps with a steady-state approach; (4) engine dynamic cycle simulation and optimization of static control maps and/or dynamic compensation strategies, taking into account dynamical effects due to the unsteady fluxes of air and fuel and the influences of combustion chamber wall thermal inertia on fuel consumption and emissions. Moreover, in the last two modules it is possible to account for errors generated by a non-deterministic behavior of sensors and actuators and the related influences on global engine performances, and compute robust strategies, less sensitive to stochastic effects. In the paper the four models are described together with significant results corresponding to the simulation and the calculation of optimal control strategies for dynamic transient tests.« less

Cost-effectiveness analysis of EGFR mutation testing and gefitinib as first-line therapy for non-small cell lung cancer.

PubMed

Narita, Yusuke; Matsushima, Yukiko; Shiroiwa, Takeru; Chiba, Koji; Nakanishi, Yoichi; Kurokawa, Tatsuo; Urushihara, Hisashi

2015-10-01

The combination use of gefitinib and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) testing is a standard first-line therapy for patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Here, we examined the cost-effectiveness of this approach in Japan. Our analysis compared the 'EGFR testing strategy', in which EGFR mutation testing was performed before treatment and patients with EGFR mutations received gefitinib while those without mutations received standard chemotherapy, to the 'no-testing strategy,' in which genetic testing was not conducted and all patients were treated with standard chemotherapy. A three-state Markov model was constructed to predict expected costs and outcomes for each strategy. We included only direct medical costs from the healthcare payer's perspective. Outcomes in the model were based on those reported in the Iressa Pan-Asia Study (IPASS). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was calculated using quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted. The incremental cost and effectiveness per patient of the 'EGFR testing strategy' compared to the 'no-testing strategy' was estimated to be approximately JP¥122,000 (US$1180; US$1=JP¥104 as of February 2014) and 0.036 QALYs. The ICER was then calculated to be around JP¥3.38 million (US$32,500) per QALY gained. These results suggest that the 'EGFR testing strategy' is cost-effective compared with the 'no-testing strategy' when JP¥5.0 million to 6.0 million per QALY gained is considered an acceptable threshold. These results were supported by the sensitivity and scenario analyses. The combination use of gefitinib and EGFR testing can be considered a cost-effective first-line therapy compared to chemotherapy such as carboplatin-paclitaxel for the treatment for NSCLC in Japan. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frey, H.; Haeberli, W.; Linsbauer, A.; Huggel, C.; Paul, F.

2010-02-01

In the course of glacier retreat, new glacier lakes can develop. As such lakes can be a source of natural hazards, strategies for predicting future glacier lake formation are important for an early planning of safety measures. In this article, a multi-level strategy for the identification of overdeepened parts of the glacier beds and, hence, sites with potential future lake formation, is presented. At the first two of the four levels of this strategy, glacier bed overdeepenings are estimated qualitatively and over large regions based on a digital elevation model (DEM) and digital glacier outlines. On level 3, more detailed and laborious models are applied for modeling the glacier bed topography over smaller regions; and on level 4, special situations must be investigated in-situ with detailed measurements such as geophysical soundings. The approaches of the strategy are validated using historical data from Trift Glacier, where a lake formed over the past decade. Scenarios of future glacier lakes are shown for the two test regions Aletsch and Bernina in the Swiss Alps. In the Bernina region, potential future lake outbursts are modeled, using a GIS-based hydrological flow routing model. As shown by a corresponding test, the ASTER GDEM and the SRTM DEM are both suitable to be used within the proposed strategy. Application of this strategy in other mountain regions of the world is therefore possible as well.

Software reliability through fault-avoidance and fault-tolerance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vouk, Mladen A.; Mcallister, David F.

1993-01-01

Strategies and tools for the testing, risk assessment and risk control of dependable software-based systems were developed. Part of this project consists of studies to enable the transfer of technology to industry, for example the risk management techniques for safety-concious systems. Theoretical investigations of Boolean and Relational Operator (BRO) testing strategy were conducted for condition-based testing. The Basic Graph Generation and Analysis tool (BGG) was extended to fully incorporate several variants of the BRO metric. Single- and multi-phase risk, coverage and time-based models are being developed to provide additional theoretical and empirical basis for estimation of the reliability and availability of large, highly dependable software. A model for software process and risk management was developed. The use of cause-effect graphing for software specification and validation was investigated. Lastly, advanced software fault-tolerance models were studied to provide alternatives and improvements in situations where simple software fault-tolerance strategies break down.

Exploring different strategies for imbalanced ADME data problem: case study on Caco-2 permeability modeling.

PubMed

Pham-The, Hai; Casañola-Martin, Gerardo; Garrigues, Teresa; Bermejo, Marival; González-Álvarez, Isabel; Nguyen-Hai, Nam; Cabrera-Pérez, Miguel Ángel; Le-Thi-Thu, Huong

2016-02-01

In many absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME) modeling problems, imbalanced data could negatively affect classification performance of machine learning algorithms. Solutions for handling imbalanced dataset have been proposed, but their application for ADME modeling tasks is underexplored. In this paper, various strategies including cost-sensitive learning and resampling methods were studied to tackle the moderate imbalance problem of a large Caco-2 cell permeability database. Simple physicochemical molecular descriptors were utilized for data modeling. Support vector machine classifiers were constructed and compared using multiple comparison tests. Results showed that the models developed on the basis of resampling strategies displayed better performance than the cost-sensitive classification models, especially in the case of oversampling data where misclassification rates for minority class have values of 0.11 and 0.14 for training and test set, respectively. A consensus model with enhanced applicability domain was subsequently constructed and showed improved performance. This model was used to predict a set of randomly selected high-permeability reference drugs according to the biopharmaceutics classification system. Overall, this study provides a comparison of numerous rebalancing strategies and displays the effectiveness of oversampling methods to deal with imbalanced permeability data problems.

Do sophisticated epistemic beliefs predict meaningful learning? Findings from a structural equation model of undergraduate biology learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Silvia Wen-Yu; Liang, Jyh-Chong; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2016-10-01

This study investigated the relationships among college students' epistemic beliefs in biology (EBB), conceptions of learning biology (COLB), and strategies of learning biology (SLB). EBB includes four dimensions, namely 'multiple-source,' 'uncertainty,' 'development,' and 'justification.' COLB is further divided into 'constructivist' and 'reproductive' conceptions, while SLB represents deep strategies and surface learning strategies. Questionnaire responses were gathered from 303 college students. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis and structural equation modelling showed acceptable model fits. Mediation testing further revealed two paths with complete mediation. In sum, students' epistemic beliefs of 'uncertainty' and 'justification' in biology were statistically significant in explaining the constructivist and reproductive COLB, respectively; and 'uncertainty' was statistically significant in explaining the deep SLB as well. The results of mediation testing further revealed that 'uncertainty' predicted surface strategies through the mediation of 'reproductive' conceptions; and the relationship between 'justification' and deep strategies was mediated by 'constructivist' COLB. This study provides evidence for the essential roles some epistemic beliefs play in predicting students' learning.

Varying efficacy of Helicobacter pylori eradication regimens: cost effectiveness study using a decision analysis model.

PubMed

Duggan, A E; Tolley, K; Hawkey, C J; Logan, R F

1998-05-30

To determine how small differences in the efficacy and cost of two antibiotic regimens to eradicate Helicobacter pylori can affect the overall cost effectiveness of H pylori eradication in duodenal ulcer disease. A decision analysis to examine the cost effectiveness of eight H pylori eradication strategies for duodenal ulcer disease with and without 13C-urea breath testing to confirm eradication. Cumulative direct treatment costs per 100 patients with duodenal ulcer disease who were positive for H pylori. In model 1 the strategy of omeprazole, clarithromycin, and metronidazole alone was the most cost effective of the four strategies assessed. The addition of the 13C-urea breath test and a second course of omeprazole, clarithromycin, and metronidazole achieved the highest eradication rate (97%) but was the most expensive (62.63 pounds per patient). The cost of each additional effective eradication was 589.00 pounds (incremental cost per case) when compared with the cost of treating once only with omeprazole, clarithromycin, and metronidazole; equivalent to the cost of a patient receiving ranitidine for duodenal ulcer relapse for more than 15 years. Eradication strategies of omeprazole, amoxycillin, and metronidazole were less cost effective than omeprazole, clarithromycin, and metronidazole alone. In model 2 the addition of the 13C-urea breath test after treatment, and maintenance treatment, increased the cost of all the strategies and reduced the cost advantage of omeprazole, clarithromycin, and metronidazole alone. Small differences in efficacy can influence the comparative cost effectiveness of strategies for eradicating H pylori. Of the strategies tested the most cost effective (omeprazole, clarithromycin, and metronidazole alone) was neither the least expensive (omeprazole, amoxycillin, and metronidazole alone) nor the most effective (omeprazole, clarithromycin, and metronidazole with further treatment for patients found positive for H pylori on 13C-urea breath testing). Cost effectiveness should be an important part of choosing an eradication strategy for H pylori.

On the self-serving function of an academic wooden leg: test anxiety as a self-handicapping strategy.

PubMed

Smith, C W; Snyder, D R; Handelsman, M M

1982-02-01

The present study investigated the hypothesis that psychological symptoms may serve a self-protective function by providing an alternative explanation for potential failure in evaluating situations. It was hypothesized that highly test-anxious subjects would report anxiety symptoms in a pattern that reflected strategic presentation of symptoms; more specifically, it was predicted that greater reported anxiety should result when anxiety was a viable explanation for poor performance on an intelligence test and that lower reported anxiety should result when anxiety was not a viable explanation for poor performance. Analysis of state measures of self-reported anxiety supported these predictions. Further analysis indicated that when anxiety was not a viable explanation for poor test performance, high test-anxiety subjects reported reduced effort as an alternative self-protective strategy. These results are discussed in terms of traditional models of symptoms as self-protective strategies, current social psychological models of symptoms, and in reference to recent theory and research about the nature and treatment of test anxiety.

A reliability as an independent variable (RAIV) methodology for optimizing test planning for liquid rocket engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Strunz, Richard; Herrmann, Jeffrey W.

2011-12-01

The hot fire test strategy for liquid rocket engines has always been a concern of space industry and agency alike because no recognized standard exists. Previous hot fire test plans focused on the verification of performance requirements but did not explicitly include reliability as a dimensioning variable. The stakeholders are, however, concerned about a hot fire test strategy that balances reliability, schedule, and affordability. A multiple criteria test planning model is presented that provides a framework to optimize the hot fire test strategy with respect to stakeholder concerns. The Staged Combustion Rocket Engine Demonstrator, a program of the European Space Agency, is used as example to provide the quantitative answer to the claim that a reduced thrust scale demonstrator is cost beneficial for a subsequent flight engine development. Scalability aspects of major subsystems are considered in the prior information definition inside the Bayesian framework. The model is also applied to assess the impact of an increase of the demonstrated reliability level on schedule and affordability.

Hypothesis testing in functional linear regression models with Neyman's truncation and wavelet thresholding for longitudinal data.

PubMed

Yang, Xiaowei; Nie, Kun

2008-03-15

Longitudinal data sets in biomedical research often consist of large numbers of repeated measures. In many cases, the trajectories do not look globally linear or polynomial, making it difficult to summarize the data or test hypotheses using standard longitudinal data analysis based on various linear models. An alternative approach is to apply the approaches of functional data analysis, which directly target the continuous nonlinear curves underlying discretely sampled repeated measures. For the purposes of data exploration, many functional data analysis strategies have been developed based on various schemes of smoothing, but fewer options are available for making causal inferences regarding predictor-outcome relationships, a common task seen in hypothesis-driven medical studies. To compare groups of curves, two testing strategies with good power have been proposed for high-dimensional analysis of variance: the Fourier-based adaptive Neyman test and the wavelet-based thresholding test. Using a smoking cessation clinical trial data set, this paper demonstrates how to extend the strategies for hypothesis testing into the framework of functional linear regression models (FLRMs) with continuous functional responses and categorical or continuous scalar predictors. The analysis procedure consists of three steps: first, apply the Fourier or wavelet transform to the original repeated measures; then fit a multivariate linear model in the transformed domain; and finally, test the regression coefficients using either adaptive Neyman or thresholding statistics. Since a FLRM can be viewed as a natural extension of the traditional multiple linear regression model, the development of this model and computational tools should enhance the capacity of medical statistics for longitudinal data.

A mathematical model of Clostridium difficile transmission in medical wards and a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing different strategies for laboratory diagnosis and patient isolation.

PubMed

Schechner, Vered; Carmeli, Yehuda; Leshno, Moshe

2017-01-01

Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is a common and potentially fatal healthcare-associated infection. Improving diagnostic tests and infection control measures may prevent transmission. We aimed to determine, in resource-limited settings, whether it is more effective and cost-effective to allocate resources to isolation or to diagnostics. We constructed a mathematical model of CDI transmission based on hospital data (9 medical wards, 350 beds) between March 2010 and February 2013. The model consisted of three compartments: susceptible patients, asymptomatic carriers and CDI patients. We used our model results to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis, comparing four strategies that were different combinations of 2 test methods (the two-step test and uniform PCR) and 2 infection control measures (contact isolation in multiple-bed rooms or single-bed rooms/cohorting). For each strategy, we calculated the annual cost (of CDI diagnosis and isolation) for a decrease of 1 in the average daily number of CDI patients; the strategy of the two-step test and contact isolation in multiple-bed rooms was the reference strategy. Our model showed that the average number of CDI patients increased exponentially as the transmission rate increased. Improving diagnosis by adopting uniform PCR assay reduced the average number of CDI cases per day per 350 beds from 9.4 to 8.5, while improving isolation by using single-bed rooms reduced the number to about 1; the latter was cost saving. CDI can be decreased by better isolation and more sensitive laboratory methods. From the hospital perspective, improving isolation is more cost-effective than improving diagnostics.

A mathematical model of Clostridium difficile transmission in medical wards and a cost-effectiveness analysis comparing different strategies for laboratory diagnosis and patient isolation

PubMed Central

Carmeli, Yehuda; Leshno, Moshe

2017-01-01

Background Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) is a common and potentially fatal healthcare-associated infection. Improving diagnostic tests and infection control measures may prevent transmission. We aimed to determine, in resource-limited settings, whether it is more effective and cost-effective to allocate resources to isolation or to diagnostics. Methods We constructed a mathematical model of CDI transmission based on hospital data (9 medical wards, 350 beds) between March 2010 and February 2013. The model consisted of three compartments: susceptible patients, asymptomatic carriers and CDI patients. We used our model results to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis, comparing four strategies that were different combinations of 2 test methods (the two-step test and uniform PCR) and 2 infection control measures (contact isolation in multiple-bed rooms or single-bed rooms/cohorting). For each strategy, we calculated the annual cost (of CDI diagnosis and isolation) for a decrease of 1 in the average daily number of CDI patients; the strategy of the two-step test and contact isolation in multiple-bed rooms was the reference strategy. Results Our model showed that the average number of CDI patients increased exponentially as the transmission rate increased. Improving diagnosis by adopting uniform PCR assay reduced the average number of CDI cases per day per 350 beds from 9.4 to 8.5, while improving isolation by using single-bed rooms reduced the number to about 1; the latter was cost saving. Conclusions CDI can be decreased by better isolation and more sensitive laboratory methods. From the hospital perspective, improving isolation is more cost-effective than improving diagnostics. PMID:28187144

An Examination of Strategy Implementation During Abstract Nonlinguistic Category Learning in Aphasia

PubMed Central

Kiran, Swathi

2015-01-01

Purpose Our purpose was to study strategy use during nonlinguistic category learning in aphasia. Method Twelve control participants without aphasia and 53 participants with aphasia (PWA) completed a computerized feedback-based category learning task consisting of training and testing phases. Accuracy rates of categorization in testing phases were calculated. To evaluate strategy use, strategy analyses were conducted over training and testing phases. Participant data were compared with model data that simulated complex multi-cue, single feature, and random pattern strategies. Learning success and strategy use were evaluated within the context of standardized cognitive–linguistic assessments. Results Categorization accuracy was higher among control participants than among PWA. The majority of control participants implemented suboptimal or optimal multi-cue and single-feature strategies by testing phases of the experiment. In contrast, a large subgroup of PWA implemented random patterns, or no strategy, during both training and testing phases of the experiment. Conclusions Person-to-person variability arises not only in category learning ability but also in the strategies implemented to complete category learning tasks. PWA less frequently developed effective strategies during category learning tasks than control participants. Certain PWA may have impairments of strategy development or feedback processing not captured by language and currently probed cognitive abilities. PMID:25908438

Model building strategy for logistic regression: purposeful selection.

PubMed

Zhang, Zhongheng

2016-03-01

Logistic regression is one of the most commonly used models to account for confounders in medical literature. The article introduces how to perform purposeful selection model building strategy with R. I stress on the use of likelihood ratio test to see whether deleting a variable will have significant impact on model fit. A deleted variable should also be checked for whether it is an important adjustment of remaining covariates. Interaction should be checked to disentangle complex relationship between covariates and their synergistic effect on response variable. Model should be checked for the goodness-of-fit (GOF). In other words, how the fitted model reflects the real data. Hosmer-Lemeshow GOF test is the most widely used for logistic regression model.

Chemical Agent Monitor (CAM) Follow-On Operational Test and Evaluation Simulant Test Strategy

DTIC Science & Technology

1990-06-01

the CAM’s follow-on test and evaluation. 5 Blank CONTENTS Page 1. INTRODUCTION .................................................... 9 1.1 Purpose...SIMULANT TEST STRATEGY 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Purpose. The purpose of this report is to provide methyl salicylate (MS) and dipropylene glycol monomethyl...Syringe Hamilton, 50 pL 10 Hamilton Dispenser Model# PB 600 2 Syringe Needle 26 jauge 20 MS ** 30 gallons DPGME ** 40 gallons Ethanol ** 10 gallons * Item

Medical school dropout--testing at admission versus selection by highest grades as predictors.

PubMed

O'Neill, Lotte; Hartvigsen, Jan; Wallstedt, Birgitta; Korsholm, Lars; Eika, Berit

2011-11-01

Very few studies have reported on the effect of admission tests on medical school dropout. The main aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of non-grade-based admission testing versus grade-based admission relative to subsequent dropout. This prospective cohort study followed six cohorts of medical students admitted to the medical school at the University of Southern Denmark during 2002-2007 (n=1544). Half of the students were admitted based on their prior achievement of highest grades (Strategy 1) and the other half took a composite non-grade-based admission test (Strategy 2). Educational as well as social predictor variables (doctor-parent, origin, parenthood, parents living together, parent on benefit, university-educated parents) were also examined. The outcome of interest was students' dropout status at 2 years after admission. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to model dropout. Strategy 2 (admission test) students had a lower relative risk for dropping out of medical school within 2 years of admission (odds ratio 0.56, 95% confidence interval 0.39-0.80). Only the admission strategy, the type of qualifying examination and the priority given to the programme on the national application forms contributed significantly to the dropout model. Social variables did not predict dropout and neither did Strategy 2 admission test scores. Selection by admission testing appeared to have an independent, protective effect on dropout in this setting. © Blackwell Publishing Ltd 2011.

Exploring Students' Reflective Thinking Practice, Deep Processing Strategies, Effort, and Achievement Goal Orientations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phan, Huy Phuong

2009-01-01

Recent research indicates that study processing strategies, effort, reflective thinking practice, and achievement goals are important factors contributing to the prediction of students' academic success. Very few studies have combined these theoretical orientations within one conceptual model. This study tested a conceptual model that included, in…

Decision Modeling in Sleep Apnea: The Critical Roles of Pretest Probability, Cost of Untreated Obstructive Sleep Apnea, and Time Horizon.

PubMed

Moro, Marilyn; Westover, M Brandon; Kelly, Jessica; Bianchi, Matt T

2016-03-01

Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, and treatment with positive airway pressure (PAP) is cost-effective. However, the optimal diagnostic strategy remains a subject of debate. Prior modeling studies have not consistently supported the widely held assumption that home sleep testing (HST) is cost-effective. We modeled four strategies: (1) treat no one; (2) treat everyone empirically; (3) treat those testing positive during in-laboratory polysomnography (PSG) via in-laboratory titration; and (4) treat those testing positive during HST with auto-PAP. The population was assumed to lack independent reasons for in-laboratory PSG (such as insomnia, periodic limb movements in sleep, complex apnea). We considered the third-party payer perspective, via both standard (quality-adjusted) and pure cost methods. The preferred strategy depended on three key factors: pretest probability of OSA, cost of untreated OSA, and time horizon. At low prevalence and low cost of untreated OSA, the treat no one strategy was favored, whereas empiric treatment was favored for high prevalence and high cost of untreated OSA. In-laboratory backup for failures in the at-home strategy increased the preference for the at-home strategy. Without laboratory backup in the at-home arm, the in-laboratory strategy was increasingly preferred at longer time horizons. Using a model framework that captures a broad range of clinical possibilities, the optimal diagnostic approach to uncomplicated OSA depends on pretest probability, cost of untreated OSA, and time horizon. Estimating each of these critical factors remains a challenge warranting further investigation. © 2016 American Academy of Sleep Medicine.

Auto-DR and Pre-cooling of Buildings at Tri-City Corporate Center

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yin, Rongxin; Xu, Peng; Kiliccote, Sila

2008-11-01

Over the several past years, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) has conducted field tests for different pre-cooling strategies in different commercial buildings within California. The test results indicated that pre-cooling strategies were effective in reducing electric demand in these buildings during peak periods. This project studied how to optimize pre-cooling strategies for eleven buildings in the Tri-City Corporate Center, San Bernardino, California with the assistance of a building energy simulation tool -- the Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool (DRQAT) developed by LBNL's Demand Response Research Center funded by the California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research (PIER) Program. From themore » simulation results of these eleven buildings, optimal pre-cooling and temperature reset strategies were developed. The study shows that after refining and calibrating initial models with measured data, the accuracy of the models can be greatly improved and the models can be used to predict load reductions for automated demand response (Auto-DR) events. This study summarizes the optimization experience of the procedure to develop and calibrate building models in DRQAT. In order to confirm the actual effect of demand response strategies, the simulation results were compared to the field test data. The results indicated that the optimal demand response strategies worked well for all buildings in the Tri-City Corporate Center. This study also compares DRQAT with other building energy simulation tools (eQUEST and BEST). The comparison indicate that eQUEST and BEST underestimate the actual demand shed of the pre-cooling strategies due to a flaw in DOE2's simulation engine for treating wall thermal mass. DRQAT is a more accurate tool in predicting thermal mass effects of DR events.« less

Design and validation of an ontology-driven animal-free testing strategy for developmental neurotoxicity testing.

PubMed

Hessel, Ellen V S; Staal, Yvonne C M; Piersma, Aldert H

2018-03-13

Developmental neurotoxicity entails one of the most complex areas in toxicology. Animal studies provide only limited information as to human relevance. A multitude of alternative models have been developed over the years, providing insights into mechanisms of action. We give an overview of fundamental processes in neural tube formation, brain development and neural specification, aiming at illustrating complexity rather than comprehensiveness. We also give a flavor of the wealth of alternative methods in this area. Given the impressive progress in mechanistic knowledge of human biology and toxicology, the time is right for a conceptual approach for designing testing strategies that cover the integral mechanistic landscape of developmental neurotoxicity. The ontology approach provides a framework for defining this landscape, upon which an integral in silico model for predicting toxicity can be built. It subsequently directs the selection of in vitro assays for rate-limiting events in the biological network, to feed parameter tuning in the model, leading to prediction of the toxicological outcome. Validation of such models requires primary attention to coverage of the biological domain, rather than classical predictive value of individual tests. Proofs of concept for such an approach are already available. The challenge is in mining modern biology, toxicology and chemical information to feed intelligent designs, which will define testing strategies for neurodevelopmental toxicity testing. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A test-based strategy is more cost effective than empiric dose escalation for patients with Crohn's disease who lose responsiveness to infliximab.

PubMed

Velayos, Fernando S; Kahn, James G; Sandborn, William J; Feagan, Brian G

2013-06-01

Patients with Crohn's disease who become unresponsive to therapy with tumor necrosis factor antagonists are managed initially with either empiric dose escalation or testing-based strategies. The comparative cost effectiveness of these 2 strategies is unknown. We investigated whether a testing-based strategy is more cost effective than an empiric dose-escalation strategy. A decision analytic model that simulated 2 cohorts of patients with Crohn's disease compared outcomes for the 2 strategies over a 1-year time period. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the empiric strategy was expressed as cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained, compared with the testing-based strategy. We performed 1-way, probabilistic, and prespecified secondary analyses. The testing strategy yielded similar QALYs compared with the empiric strategy (0.801 vs 0.800, respectively) but was less expensive ($31,870 vs $37,266, respectively). In sensitivity analyses, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the empiric strategy ranged from $500,000 to more than $5 million per QALY gained. Similar rates of remission (63% vs 66%) and response (28% vs 26%) were achieved through differential use of available interventions. The testing-based strategy resulted in a higher percentage of surgeries (48% vs 34%) and lower percentage use of high-dose biological therapy (41% vs 54%). A testing-based strategy is a cost-effective alternative to the current strategy of empiric dose escalation for managing patients with Crohn's disease who have lost responsiveness to infliximab. The basis for this difference is lower cost at similar outcomes. Copyright © 2013 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The extension of the thermal-vacuum test optimization program to multiple flights

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Williams, R. E.; Byrd, J.

1981-01-01

The thermal vacuum test optimization model developed to provide an approach to the optimization of a test program based on prediction of flight performance with a single flight option in mind is extended to consider reflight as in space shuttle missions. The concept of 'utility', developed under the name of 'availability', is used to follow performance through the various options encountered when the capabilities of reflight and retrievability of space shuttle are available. Also, a 'lost value' model is modified to produce a measure of the probability of a mission's success, achieving a desired utility using a minimal cost test strategy. The resulting matrix of probabilities and their associated costs provides a means for project management to evaluate various test and reflight strategies.

Cost-effectiveness of supplementing a broth-enriched culture test with the Xpert meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) assay for screening inpatients at high risk of MRSA.

PubMed

Li, J; Ulvin, K; Biboh, H; Kristiansen, I S

2012-12-01

Meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) represents a considerable challenge for health care in terms of complications and costs. Whilst bacteriological culture remains the most common method for detecting MRSA, the polymerase-chain-reaction-based Xpert MRSA assay was introduced to Ullevål Oslo University Hospital, Norway in 2009. To estimate the cost-effectiveness of supplementing a broth-enriched culture test with the Xpert MRSA assay in comparison with using the culture test alone as part of an active surveillance strategy. A decision-tree model was developed to compare the current strategy (broth-enriched culture test) with two new strategies using the Xpert MRSA assay (daytime and 24 h). Costs and outcomes (length of pre-emptive isolation, number of unavailable room-hours, quality of life) were measured. The current strategy was more expensive (NOK16,984 per patient) than the daytime Xpert strategy and 24 h Xpert strategy (NOK7360 and NOK3690 per patient, respectively). The new strategies reduced the length of pre-emptive isolation per patient (by 43.9 h and 57.5 h for the daytime Xpert strategy and 24 h Xpert strategy, respectively), and also the number of unavailable room-hours per case (by 57.1 h and 77.7 h, respectively). The improvement in patients' quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) was nominal (2.4*10(-4) and 3.0*10(-4) QALYs per patient for the daytime Xpert strategy and 24 h Xpert strategy, respectively). The sensitivity analyses indicated that these results were robust to reasonable changes in the model parameters. The 24 h Xpert strategy appears to be the best strategy for active surveillance as it reduces costs and unfavourable outcomes compared with the other strategies, while improving favourable outcomes under reasonable assumptions. Copyright © 2012 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parametric, nonparametric and parametric modelling of a chaotic circuit time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Timmer, J.; Rust, H.; Horbelt, W.; Voss, H. U.

2000-09-01

The determination of a differential equation underlying a measured time series is a frequently arising task in nonlinear time series analysis. In the validation of a proposed model one often faces the dilemma that it is hard to decide whether possible discrepancies between the time series and model output are caused by an inappropriate model or by bad estimates of parameters in a correct type of model, or both. We propose a combination of parametric modelling based on Bock's multiple shooting algorithm and nonparametric modelling based on optimal transformations as a strategy to test proposed models and if rejected suggest and test new ones. We exemplify this strategy on an experimental time series from a chaotic circuit where we obtain an extremely accurate reconstruction of the observed attractor.

Testing models of parental investment strategy and offspring size in ants.

PubMed

Gilboa, Smadar; Nonacs, Peter

2006-01-01

Parental investment strategies can be fixed or flexible. A fixed strategy predicts making all offspring a single 'optimal' size. Dynamic models predict flexible strategies with more than one optimal size of offspring. Patterns in the distribution of offspring sizes may thus reveal the investment strategy. Static strategies should produce normal distributions. Dynamic strategies should often result in non-normal distributions. Furthermore, variance in morphological traits should be positively correlated with the length of developmental time the traits are exposed to environmental influences. Finally, the type of deviation from normality (i.e., skewed left or right, or platykurtic) should be correlated with the average offspring size. To test the latter prediction, we used simulations to detect significant departures from normality and categorize distribution types. Data from three species of ants strongly support the predicted patterns for dynamic parental investment. Offspring size distributions are often significantly non-normal. Traits fixed earlier in development, such as head width, are less variable than final body weight. The type of distribution observed correlates with mean female dry weight. The overall support for a dynamic parental investment model has implications for life history theory. Predicted conflicts over parental effort, sex investment ratios, and reproductive skew in cooperative breeders follow from assumptions of static parental investment strategies and omnipresent resource limitations. By contrast, with flexible investment strategies such conflicts can be either absent or maladaptive.

A Structural Equation Model of Expertise in College Physics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Carr, Martha

2009-01-01

A model of expertise in physics was tested on a sample of 374 college students in 2 different level physics courses. Structural equation modeling was used to test hypothesized relationships among variables linked to expert performance in physics including strategy use, pictorial representation, categorization skills, and motivation, and these…

An economic analysis of hyperketonemia testing and propylene glycol treatment strategies in early lactation dairy cattle.

PubMed

McArt, J A A; Nydam, D V; Oetzel, G R; Guard, C L

2014-11-01

The purpose was to develop stochastic economic models which address variation in disease risks and costs in order to evaluate different simulated on-farm testing and propylene glycol (PG) treatment strategies based on herd hyperketonemia (HYK) incidence during the first 30 DIM. Data used in model development concerning the difference in health and production consequences between HYK and non-ketotic cows were based on results from 10 studies representing over 13,000 cows from 833 dairy farms in North America, Canada, and Europe. Inputs for PG associated variables were based on a large field trial using cows from 4 free-stall dairy herds (2 in New York and 2 in Wisconsin). Four simulated on-farm testing and treatment strategies were analyzed at herd HYK incidences ranging from 5% to 80% and included: 1) treating all cows with 5d of PG starting at 5 DIM, 2) testing all cows for HYK 1 day per week (e.g. Mondays) from 3 to 16 DIM and treating all positive cows with 5d of oral PG, 3) testing all cows for HYK 2 days per week (e.g. Mondays and Thursdays) from 3 to 9 DIM and treating all positive cows with 5d of oral PG, and 4) testing all cows for HYK 3 days per week (e.g. Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays) from 3 to 16 DIM and treating all positive cows with 5d of oral PG. Cost-benefit analysis included the costs associated with labor to test cows, β-hydroxybutyrate test strips, labor to treat cows, PG, and the associated gain in milk production, decrease in DA and early removal risks of PG treated HYK positive cows compared to non-treated HYK positive cows. Stochastic models were developed to account for variability in the distribution of input variables. Per 100 fresh cows in a herd with an HYK incidence of 40%, the mean economic benefits of the 4 different strategies were $1088, $744, $1166, and $760, respectively. Testing cows 2 days per week from 3 to 9 DIM was the most cost-effective strategy for herds with HYK incidences between 15% and 50%; above 50%, treating all fresh cows with 5d of PG was the most cost-effective strategy. These results show that for herds similar to those used in model, when herd HYK incidences rise above 25%, almost any HYK testing and treatment protocol will be economically beneficial for the farm. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Economic Analysis of Alternative Strategies for Detection of ALK Rearrangements in Non Small Cell Lung Cancer

PubMed Central

Doshi, Shivang; Ray, David; Stein, Karen; Zhang, Jie; Koduru, Prasad; Fogt, Franz; Wellman, Axel; Wat, Ricky; Mathews, Charles

2016-01-01

Identification of alterations in ALK gene and development of ALK-directed therapies have increased the need for accurate and efficient detection methodologies. To date, research has focused on the concordance between the two most commonly used technologies, fluorescent in situ hybridization (FISH) and immunohistochemistry (IHC). However, inter-test concordance reflects only one, albeit important, aspect of the diagnostic process; laboratories, hospitals, and payors must understand the cost and workflow of ALK rearrangement detection strategies. Through literature review combined with interviews of pathologists and laboratory directors in the U.S. and Europe, a cost-impact model was developed that compared four alternative testing strategies—IHC only, FISH only, IHC pre-screen followed by FISH confirmation, and parallel testing by both IHC and FISH. Interviews were focused on costs of reagents, consumables, equipment, and personnel. The resulting model showed that testing by IHC alone cost less ($90.07 in the U.S., $68.69 in Europe) than either independent or parallel testing by both FISH and IHC ($441.85 in the U.S. and $279.46 in Europe). The strategies differed in cost of execution, turnaround time, reimbursement, and number of positive results detected, suggesting that laboratories must weigh the costs and the clinical benefit of available ALK testing strategies. PMID:26838801

A link-segment model of upright human posture for analysis of head-trunk coordination

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nicholas, S. C.; Doxey-Gasway, D. D.; Paloski, W. H.

1998-01-01

Sensory-motor control of upright human posture may be organized in a top-down fashion such that certain head-trunk coordination strategies are employed to optimize visual and/or vestibular sensory inputs. Previous quantitative models of the biomechanics of human posture control have examined the simple case of ankle sway strategy, in which an inverted pendulum model is used, and the somewhat more complicated case of hip sway strategy, in which multisegment, articulated models are used. While these models can be used to quantify the gross dynamics of posture control, they are not sufficiently detailed to analyze head-trunk coordination strategies that may be crucial to understanding its underlying mechanisms. In this paper, we present a biomechanical model of upright human posture that extends an existing four mass, sagittal plane, link-segment model to a five mass model including an independent head link. The new model was developed to analyze segmental body movements during dynamic posturography experiments in order to study head-trunk coordination strategies and their influence on sensory inputs to balance control. It was designed specifically to analyze data collected on the EquiTest (NeuroCom International, Clackamas, OR) computerized dynamic posturography system, where the task of maintaining postural equilibrium may be challenged under conditions in which the visual surround, support surface, or both are in motion. The performance of the model was tested by comparing its estimated ground reaction forces to those measured directly by support surface force transducers. We conclude that this model will be a valuable analytical tool in the search for mechanisms of balance control.

A response-time approach to comparing generalized rational and take-the-best models of decision making.

PubMed

Bergert, F Bryan; Nosofsky, Robert M

2007-01-01

The authors develop and test generalized versions of take-the-best (TTB) and rational (RAT) models of multiattribute paired-comparison inference. The generalized models make allowances for subjective attribute weighting, probabilistic orders of attribute inspection, and noisy decision making. A key new test involves a response-time (RT) approach. TTB predicts that RT is determined solely by the expected time required to locate the 1st discriminating attribute, whereas RAT predicts that RT is determined by the difference in summed evidence between the 2 alternatives. Critical test pairs are used that partially decouple these 2 factors. Under conditions in which ideal observer TTB and RAT strategies yield equivalent decisions, both the RT results and the estimated attribute weights suggest that the vast majority of subjects adopted the generalized TTB strategy. The RT approach is also validated in an experimental condition in which use of a RAT strategy is essentially forced upon subjects. (c) 2007 APA, all rights reserved.

Evidence for more cost-effective surveillance options for bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and scrapie in Great Britain.

PubMed

Wall, Ben A; Arnold, Mark E; Radia, Devi; Gilbert, Will; Ortiz-Pelaez, Angel; Stärk, Katharina Dc; Van Klink, Ed; Guitian, Javier

2017-08-10

Transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) are an important public health concern. Since the emergence of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) during the 1980s and its link with human Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease, active surveillance has been a key element of the European Union's TSE control strategy. Success of this strategy means that now, very few cases are detected compared with the number of animals tested. Refining surveillance strategies would enable resources to be redirected towards other public health priorities. Cost-effectiveness analysis was performed on several alternative strategies involving reducing the number of animals tested for BSE and scrapie in Great Britain and, for scrapie, varying the ratio of sheep sampled in the abattoir to fallen stock (which died on the farm). The most cost-effective strategy modelled for BSE involved reducing the proportion of fallen stock tested from 100% to 75%, producing a cost saving of ca GBP 700,000 per annum. If 50% of fallen stock were tested, a saving of ca GBP 1.4 million per annum could be achieved. However, these reductions are predicted to increase the period before surveillance can detect an outbreak. For scrapie, reducing the proportion of abattoir samples was the most cost-effective strategy modelled, with limited impact on surveillance effectiveness. This article is copyright of The Authors, 2017.

Black-Box System Testing of Real-Time Embedded Systems Using Random and Search-Based Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arcuri, Andrea; Iqbal, Muhammad Zohaib; Briand, Lionel

Testing real-time embedded systems (RTES) is in many ways challenging. Thousands of test cases can be potentially executed on an industrial RTES. Given the magnitude of testing at the system level, only a fully automated approach can really scale up to test industrial RTES. In this paper we take a black-box approach and model the RTES environment using the UML/MARTE international standard. Our main motivation is to provide a more practical approach to the model-based testing of RTES by allowing system testers, who are often not familiar with the system design but know the application domain well-enough, to model the environment to enable test automation. Environment models can support the automation of three tasks: the code generation of an environment simulator, the selection of test cases, and the evaluation of their expected results (oracles). In this paper, we focus on the second task (test case selection) and investigate three test automation strategies using inputs from UML/MARTE environment models: Random Testing (baseline), Adaptive Random Testing, and Search-Based Testing (using Genetic Algorithms). Based on one industrial case study and three artificial systems, we show how, in general, no technique is better than the others. Which test selection technique to use is determined by the failure rate (testing stage) and the execution time of test cases. Finally, we propose a practical process to combine the use of all three test strategies.

A global logrank test for adaptive treatment strategies based on observational studies.

PubMed

Li, Zhiguo; Valenstein, Marcia; Pfeiffer, Paul; Ganoczy, Dara

2014-02-28

In studying adaptive treatment strategies, a natural question that is of paramount interest is whether there is any significant difference among all possible treatment strategies. When the outcome variable of interest is time-to-event, we propose an inverse probability weighted logrank test for testing the equivalence of a fixed set of pre-specified adaptive treatment strategies based on data from an observational study. The weights take into account both the possible selection bias in an observational study and the fact that the same subject may be consistent with more than one treatment strategy. The asymptotic distribution of the weighted logrank statistic under the null hypothesis is obtained. We show that, in an observational study where the treatment selection probabilities need to be estimated, the estimation of these probabilities does not have an effect on the asymptotic distribution of the weighted logrank statistic, as long as the estimation of the parameters in the models for these probabilities is n-consistent. Finite sample performance of the test is assessed via a simulation study. We also show in the simulation that the test can be pretty robust to misspecification of the models for the probabilities of treatment selection. The method is applied to analyze data on antidepressant adherence time from an observational database maintained at the Department of Veterans Affairs' Serious Mental Illness Treatment Research and Evaluation Center. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Decision Modeling in Sleep Apnea: The Critical Roles of Pretest Probability, Cost of Untreated Obstructive Sleep Apnea, and Time Horizon

PubMed Central

Moro, Marilyn; Westover, M. Brandon; Kelly, Jessica; Bianchi, Matt T.

2016-01-01

Study Objectives: Obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality, and treatment with positive airway pressure (PAP) is cost-effective. However, the optimal diagnostic strategy remains a subject of debate. Prior modeling studies have not consistently supported the widely held assumption that home sleep testing (HST) is cost-effective. Methods: We modeled four strategies: (1) treat no one; (2) treat everyone empirically; (3) treat those testing positive during in-laboratory polysomnography (PSG) via in-laboratory titration; and (4) treat those testing positive during HST with auto-PAP. The population was assumed to lack independent reasons for in-laboratory PSG (such as insomnia, periodic limb movements in sleep, complex apnea). We considered the third-party payer perspective, via both standard (quality-adjusted) and pure cost methods. Results: The preferred strategy depended on three key factors: pretest probability of OSA, cost of untreated OSA, and time horizon. At low prevalence and low cost of untreated OSA, the treat no one strategy was favored, whereas empiric treatment was favored for high prevalence and high cost of untreated OSA. In-laboratory backup for failures in the at-home strategy increased the preference for the at-home strategy. Without laboratory backup in the at-home arm, the in-laboratory strategy was increasingly preferred at longer time horizons. Conclusion: Using a model framework that captures a broad range of clinical possibilities, the optimal diagnostic approach to uncomplicated OSA depends on pretest probability, cost of untreated OSA, and time horizon. Estimating each of these critical factors remains a challenge warranting further investigation. Citation: Moro M, Westover MB, Kelly J, Bianchi MT. Decision modeling in sleep apnea: the critical roles of pretest probability, cost of untreated obstructive sleep apnea, and time horizon. J Clin Sleep Med 2016;12(3):409–418. PMID:26518699

Cost-effectiveness of quantitative fecal lactoferrin assay for diagnosis of symptomatic patients with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis.

PubMed

Parsi, Mansour A; Ellis, Jeffrey J; Lashner, Bret A

2008-08-01

To assess cost-effectiveness of fecal lactoferrin (FL) as the initial diagnostic approach to symptomatic patients with ileal pouch-anal anastomosis (IPAA). Four competing strategies [empiric metronidazole therapy (txMTZ), initial pouch endoscopy with biopsy (testBiop), initial FL assay followed by metronidazole therapy (testFL+MTZ), and initial FL assay followed by pouch endoscopy and biopsy (testFL+Biop)] were modeled in a decision tree. In the base-case, the average cost per patient was $241 for testFL+MTZ, $251 for txMTZ, $405 for testFL+Biop, and $431 for testBiop. The testBiop strategy had greater effectiveness compared with txMTZ but at an incremental cost of $158 per day. The txMTZ strategy was slightly more costly and minimally more effective than testFL+MTZ with an incremental cost effectiveness of just over $12 per day. However, the testFL+MTZ strategy was associated with a 31% absolute reduction in antibiotic exposure compared with the txMTZ strategy. Compared with empiric metronidazole therapy, FL before treatment with metronidazole is less costly with less exposure to antibiotics and less need for endoscopy, with only marginal decrease in effectiveness.

Integrated corridor management analysis, modeling, and simulation results for the test corridor.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-06-01

This report documents the Integrated Corridor Management (ICM) Analysis Modeling and Simulation (AMS) tools and strategies used on a Test Corridor, presents results and lessons-learned, and documents the relative capability of AMS to support benefit-...

A comparison of individualized treatment guided by VeriStrat with standard of care treatment strategies in patients receiving second-line treatment for advanced non-small cell lung cancer: A cost-utility analysis.

PubMed

Nelson, Richard E; Stenehjem, David; Akerley, Wallace

2013-12-01

Two therapies are appropriate as 2nd-line treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients: chemotherapy and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) inhibitor therapy. VeriStrat, a serum proteomic test, can be used to guide treatment decisions for NSCLC patients. The test classifies patients as likely to benefit from either of these two treatment options. The objective of this research was to model the anticipated survival and cost-effectiveness of four different treatment strategies: chemotherapy for all patients (C-all), EGFR inhibitor for all (E-all), a performance status guided selection strategy (PS-guided), and a strategy guided by VeriStrat test results (V-guided). We developed a Markov model with the perspective of the U.S. health care system. Model inputs were taken from published literature for the base-case analysis. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. The C-all treatment strategy showed the best overall survival outcome (10.1 months), followed by V-guided (9.6 months), PS-guided (9.2 months), and E-all (8.2 months) strategies. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of a V-guided treatment strategy was $91,111 (vs. E-all) and $8462 (vs. PS-guided) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The ICER for C-all compared to V-guided was $105,616. This cost-utility analysis indicates that a treatment strategy guided by the VeriStrat test in patients receiving second-line therapy for NSCLC may experience an overall survival benefit at an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio that is reasonable when compared with other practices, including cancer treatments, generally covered in the U.S. health care system. However, treating all patients with chemotherapy yielded the greatest expected survival. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Strategies for Testing Statistical and Practical Significance in Detecting DIF with Logistic Regression Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fidalgo, Angel M.; Alavi, Seyed Mohammad; Amirian, Seyed Mohammad Reza

2014-01-01

This study examines three controversial aspects in differential item functioning (DIF) detection by logistic regression (LR) models: first, the relative effectiveness of different analytical strategies for detecting DIF; second, the suitability of the Wald statistic for determining the statistical significance of the parameters of interest; and…

Field Test of Wake Steering at an Offshore Wind Farm

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fleming, Paul; Annoni, Jennifer; Shah, Jigar J.

In this paper, a field test of wake steering control is presented. The field test is the result of a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Envision Energy, a smart energy management company and turbine manufacturer. In the campaign, an array of turbines within an operating commercial offshore wind farm in China have the normal yaw controller modified to implement wake steering according to a yaw control strategy. The strategy was designed using NREL wind farm models, including a computational fluid dynamics model, SOWFA, for understanding wake dynamics and an engineering model, FLORIS, for yaw control optimization.more » Results indicate that, within the certainty afforded by the data, the wake-steering controller was successful in increasing power capture, by amounts similar to those predicted from the models.« less

The Proposal of a Evolutionary Strategy Generating the Data Structures Based on a Horizontal Tree for the Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Żukowicz, Marek; Markiewicz, Michał

2016-09-01

The aim of the article is to present a mathematical definition of the object model, that is known in computer science as TreeList and to show application of this model for design evolutionary algorithm, that purpose is to generate structures based on this object. The first chapter introduces the reader to the problem of presenting data using the TreeList object. The second chapter describes the problem of testing data structures based on TreeList. The third one shows a mathematical model of the object TreeList and the parameters, used in determining the utility of structures created through this model and in evolutionary strategy, that generates these structures for testing purposes. The last chapter provides a brief summary and plans for future research related to the algorithm presented in the article.

Field Test of Wake Steering at an Offshore Wind Farm

DOE PAGES

Fleming, Paul; Annoni, Jennifer; Shah, Jigar J.; ...

2017-02-06

In this paper, a field test of wake steering control is presented. The field test is the result of a collaboration between the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Envision Energy, a smart energy management company and turbine manufacturer. In the campaign, an array of turbines within an operating commercial offshore wind farm in China have the normal yaw controller modified to implement wake steering according to a yaw control strategy. The strategy was designed using NREL wind farm models, including a computational fluid dynamics model, SOWFA, for understanding wake dynamics and an engineering model, FLORIS, for yaw control optimization.more » Results indicate that, within the certainty afforded by the data, the wake-steering controller was successful in increasing power capture, by amounts similar to those predicted from the models.« less

Development of an Agent-Based Model to Investigate the Impact of HIV Self-Testing Programs on Men Who Have Sex With Men in Atlanta and Seattle.

PubMed

Luo, Wei; Katz, David A; Hamilton, Deven T; McKenney, Jennie; Jenness, Samuel M; Goodreau, Steven M; Stekler, Joanne D; Rosenberg, Eli S; Sullivan, Patrick S; Cassels, Susan

2018-06-29

In the United States HIV epidemic, men who have sex with men (MSM) remain the most profoundly affected group. Prevention science is increasingly being organized around HIV testing as a launch point into an HIV prevention continuum for MSM who are not living with HIV and into an HIV care continuum for MSM who are living with HIV. An increasing HIV testing frequency among MSM might decrease future HIV infections by linking men who are living with HIV to antiretroviral care, resulting in viral suppression. Distributing HIV self-test (HIVST) kits is a strategy aimed at increasing HIV testing. Our previous modeling work suggests that the impact of HIV self-tests on transmission dynamics will depend not only on the frequency of tests and testers' behaviors but also on the epidemiological and testing characteristics of the population. The objective of our study was to develop an agent-based model to inform public health strategies for promoting safe and effective HIV self-tests to decrease the HIV incidence among MSM in Atlanta, GA, and Seattle, WA, cities representing profoundly different epidemiological settings. We adapted and extended a network- and agent-based stochastic simulation model of HIV transmission dynamics that was developed and parameterized to investigate racial disparities in HIV prevalence among MSM in Atlanta. The extension comprised several activities: adding a new set of model parameters for Seattle MSM; adding new parameters for tester types (ie, regular, risk-based, opportunistic-only, or never testers); adding parameters for simplified pre-exposure prophylaxis uptake following negative results for HIV tests; and developing a conceptual framework for the ways in which the provision of HIV self-tests might change testing behaviors. We derived city-specific parameters from previous cohort and cross-sectional studies on MSM in Atlanta and Seattle. Each simulated population comprised 10,000 MSM and targeted HIV prevalences are equivalent to 28% and 11% in Atlanta and Seattle, respectively. Previous studies provided sufficient data to estimate the model parameters representing nuanced HIV testing patterns and HIV self-test distribution. We calibrated the models to simulate the epidemics representing Atlanta and Seattle, including matching the expected stable HIV prevalence. The revised model facilitated the estimation of changes in 10-year HIV incidence based on counterfactual scenarios of HIV self-test distribution strategies and their impact on testing behaviors. We demonstrated that the extension of an existing agent-based HIV transmission model was sufficient to simulate the HIV epidemics among MSM in Atlanta and Seattle, to accommodate a more nuanced depiction of HIV testing behaviors than previous models, and to serve as a platform to investigate how HIV self-tests might impact testing and HIV transmission patterns among MSM in Atlanta and Seattle. In our future studies, we will use the model to test how different HIV self-test distribution strategies might affect HIV incidence among MSM. ©Wei Luo, David A Katz, Deven T Hamilton, Jennie McKenney, Samuel M Jenness, Steven M Goodreau, Joanne D Stekler, Eli S Rosenberg, Patrick S Sullivan, Susan Cassels. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (http://publichealth.jmir.org), 29.06.2018.

On the importance of avoiding shortcuts in applying cognitive models to hierarchical data.

PubMed

Boehm, Udo; Marsman, Maarten; Matzke, Dora; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2018-06-12

Psychological experiments often yield data that are hierarchically structured. A number of popular shortcut strategies in cognitive modeling do not properly accommodate this structure and can result in biased conclusions. To gauge the severity of these biases, we conducted a simulation study for a two-group experiment. We first considered a modeling strategy that ignores the hierarchical data structure. In line with theoretical results, our simulations showed that Bayesian and frequentist methods that rely on this strategy are biased towards the null hypothesis. Secondly, we considered a modeling strategy that takes a two-step approach by first obtaining participant-level estimates from a hierarchical cognitive model and subsequently using these estimates in a follow-up statistical test. Methods that rely on this strategy are biased towards the alternative hypothesis. Only hierarchical models of the multilevel data lead to correct conclusions. Our results are particularly relevant for the use of hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimates in cognitive modeling.

Long-term costs of introducing HPV-DNA post-treatment surveillance to national cervical cancer screening in Ireland.

PubMed

Agapova, Maria; Duignan, Andrea; Smith, Alan; O'Neill, Ciaran; Basu, Anirban

2015-01-01

Co-testing (cytology plus human papillomavirus DNA testing) as part of cervical cancer surveillance in Ireland increases one-time testing costs. Of interest to policy makers was the long-term impact of these costs accompanied by decreases in intensity of recalls for women with no detected abnormalities. A cost analysis of cytology-only and co-testing strategy was implemented using decision analytic modeling, aggregating testing utilization and costs for each of the two strategies over 12 years. Aggregated incremental costs of the co-testing strategy were positive for the first 3 years but became negative thereafter, generating a cost savings of roughly €20 million in favor of the cytology-only strategy over a 12-year period. Results were robust over a range of sensitivity analyses with respect to discount and attrition rates. This analysis provided valuable information to policy makers contributing to the introduction of co-testing for post-treatment surveillance (PTS) in Ireland.

The cost-effectiveness of screening for colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Telford, Jennifer J; Levy, Adrian R; Sambrook, Jennifer C; Zou, Denise; Enns, Robert A

2010-09-07

Published decision analyses show that screening for colorectal cancer is cost-effective. However, because of the number of tests available, the optimal screening strategy in Canada is unknown. We estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness of 10 strategies for colorectal cancer screening, as well as no screening, incorporating quality of life, noncompliance and data on the costs and benefits of chemotherapy. We used a probabilistic Markov model to estimate the costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy of 50-year-old average-risk Canadians without screening and with screening by each test. We populated the model with data from the published literature. We calculated costs from the perspective of a third-party payer, with inflation to 2007 Canadian dollars. Of the 10 strategies considered, we focused on three tests currently being used for population screening in some Canadian provinces: low-sensitivity guaiac fecal occult blood test, performed annually; fecal immunochemical test, performed annually; and colonoscopy, performed every 10 years. These strategies reduced the incidence of colorectal cancer by 44%, 65% and 81%, and mortality by 55%, 74% and 83%, respectively, compared with no screening. These strategies generated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $9159, $611 and $6133 per quality-adjusted life year, respectively. The findings were robust to probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Colonoscopy every 10 years yielded the greatest net health benefit. Screening for colorectal cancer is cost-effective over conventional levels of willingness to pay. Annual high-sensitivity fecal occult blood testing, such as a fecal immunochemical test, or colonoscopy every 10 years offer the best value for the money in Canada.

Large-scale translocation strategies for reintroducing red-cockaded woodpeckers

Treesearch

Daniel Saenz; Kristen A. Baum; Richard N. Conner; D. Craig Rudolph; Ralph Costa

2002-01-01

Translocation of wild birds is a potential conservation strategy for the endangered red-cockaded woodpecker (Picoides borealis). We developed and tested 8 large-scale translocation strategy models for a regional red-cockaded woodpecker reintroduction program. The purpose of the reintroduction program is to increase the number of red-cockaded...

Regulating Approaches to Learning: Testing Learning Strategy Convergences across a Year at University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fryer, Luke K.; Vermunt, Jan D.

2018-01-01

Background: Contemporary models of student learning within higher education are often inclusive of processing and regulation strategies. Considerable research has examined their use over time and their (person-centred) convergence. The longitudinal stability/variability of learning strategy use, however, is poorly understood, but essential to…

A five-year model to assess the early cost-effectiveness of new diagnostic tests in the early diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Buisman, Leander R; Luime, Jolanda J; Oppe, Mark; Hazes, Johanna M W; Rutten-van Mölken, Maureen P M H

2016-06-10

There is a lack of information about the sensitivity, specificity and costs new diagnostic tests should have to improve early diagnosis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Our objective was to explore the early cost-effectiveness of various new diagnostic test strategies in the workup of patients with inflammatory arthritis (IA) at risk of having RA. A decision tree followed by a patient-level state transition model, using data from published literature, cohorts and trials, was used to evaluate diagnostic test strategies. Alternative tests were assessed as add-on to or replacement of the ACR/EULAR 2010 RA classification criteria for all patients and for intermediate-risk patients. Tests included B-cell gene expression (sensitivity 0.60, specificity 0.90, costs €150), MRI (sensitivity 0.90, specificity 0.60, costs €756), IL-6 serum level (sensitivity 0.70, specificity 0.53, costs €50) and genetic assay (sensitivity 0.40, specificity 0.85, costs €750). Patients with IA at risk of RA were followed for 5 years using a societal perspective. Guideline treatment was assumed using tight controlled treatment based on DAS28; if patients had a DAS28 >3.2 at 12 months or later patients could be eligible for starting biological drugs. The outcome was expressed in incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (€2014 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained) and headroom. The B-cell test was the least expensive strategy when used as an add-on and as replacement in intermediate-risk patients, making it the dominant strategy, as it has better health outcomes and lower costs. As add-on for all patients, the B-cell test was also the most cost-effective test strategy. When using a willingness-to-pay threshold of €20,000 per QALY gained, the IL-6 and MRI strategies were not cost-effective, except as replacement. A genetic assay was not cost-effective in any strategy. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the B-cell test was consistently superior in all strategies. When performing univariate sensitivity analysis for intermediate-risk patients, specificity and DAS28 in the B-cell add-on strategy, and DAS28 and sensitivity in the MRI add-on strategy had the largest impact on the cost-effectiveness. This early cost-effectiveness analysis indicated that new tests to diagnose RA are most likely to be cost-effective when the tests are used as an add-on in intermediate-risk patients, and have high specificity, and the test costs should not be higher than €200-€300.

High quality diabetes care: testing the effectiveness of strategies of regional implementation teams.

PubMed

Drach-Zahavy, Anat; Shadmi, Efrat; Freund, Anat; Goldfracht, Margalit

2009-01-01

The purpose of this article is to identify and test the effectiveness of work strategies employed by regional implementation teams to attain high quality care for diabetes patients. The study was conducted in a major health maintenance organization (HMO) that provides care for 70 per cent of Israel's diabetes patients. A sequential mixed model design, combining qualitative and quantitative methods was employed. In-depth interviews were conducted with members of six regional implementation teams, each responsible for the care of 25,000-34,000 diabetic patients. Content analysis of the interviews revealed that teams employed four key strategies: task-interdependence, goal-interdependence, reliance on top-down standardised processes and team-learning. These strategies were used to predict the mean percentage performance of eight evidence-based indicators of diabetes care: percentage of patients with HbA1c < 7 per cent, blood pressure < or = 130/80 and cholesterol < or = 100; and performance of: HbA1c tests, LDL cholesterol tests, blood pressure measurements, urine protein tests, and ophthalmic examinations. Teams were found to vary in their use of the four strategies. Mixed linear models analysis indicated that type of indicator (simple process, compound process, and outcome) and goal interdependence were significantly linked to team effectiveness. For simple-process indicators, reliance on top-down standardised processes led to team effectiveness, but for outcome measures this strategy was ineffective, and even counter-effective. For outcome measures, team-learning was more beneficial. The findings have implications for the management of chronic diseases. The advantage of allowing team members flexibility in the choice of the best work strategy to attain high quality diabetes care is attested.

Cost-effectiveness of HIV and syphilis antenatal screening: a modeling study

PubMed Central

Bristow, Claire C.; Larson, Elysia; Anderson, Laura J.; Klausner, Jeffrey D.

2016-01-01

Objectives The World Health Organization called for the elimination of maternal-to-child transmission (MTCT) of HIV and syphilis, a harmonized approach for the improvement of health outcomes for mothers and children. Testing early in pregnancy, treating seropositive pregnant women, and preventing syphilis re-infection can prevent MTCT of HIV and syphilis. We assessed the health and economic outcomes of a dual testing strategy in a simulated cohort of 100,000 antenatal care patients in Malawi. Methods We compared four screening algorithms: (1) HIV rapid test only, (2) dual HIV and syphilis rapid tests, (3) single rapid tests for HIV and syphilis, and (4) HIV rapid and syphilis laboratory tests. We calculated the expected number of adverse pregnancy outcomes, the expected costs, and the expected newborn disability adjusted life years (DALYs) for each screening algorithm. The estimated costs and DALYs for each screening algorithm were assessed from a societal perspective using Markov progression models. Additionally, we conducted a Monte Carlo multi-way sensitivity analysis, allowing for ranges of inputs. Results Our cohort decision model predicted the lowest number of adverse pregnancy outcomes in the dual HIV and syphilis rapid test strategy. Additionally, from the societal perspective, the costs of prevention and care using a dual HIV and syphilis rapid testing strategy was both the least costly ($226.92 per pregnancy) and resulted in the fewest DALYs (116,639) per 100,000 pregnancies. In the Monte Carlo simulation the dual HIV and syphilis algorithm was always cost saving and almost always reduced disability adjusted life years (DALYs) compared to HIV testing alone. Conclusion The results of the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that a dual HIV and syphilis test was cost saving compared to all other screening strategies. Adding dual rapid testing to the existing prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission programs in Malawi and similar countries is likely to be advantageous. PMID:26920867

A Discrete Event Simulation Model to Assess the Economic Value of a Hypothetical Pharmacogenomics Test for Statin-Induced Myopathy in Patients Initiating a Statin in Secondary Cardiovascular Prevention.

PubMed

Mitchell, Dominic; Guertin, Jason R; Dubois, Anick; Dubé, Marie-Pierre; Tardif, Jean-Claude; Iliza, Ange Christelle; Fanton-Aita, Fiorella; Matteau, Alexis; LeLorier, Jacques

2018-04-01

Statin (HMG-CoA reductase inhibitor) therapy is the mainstay dyslipidemia treatment and reduces the risk of a cardiovascular (CV) event (CVE) by up to 35%. However, adherence to statin therapy is poor. One reason patients discontinue statin therapy is musculoskeletal pain and the associated risk of rhabdomyolysis. Research is ongoing to develop a pharmacogenomics (PGx) test for statin-induced myopathy as an alternative to the current diagnosis method, which relies on creatine kinase levels. The potential economic value of a PGx test for statin-induced myopathy is unknown. We developed a lifetime discrete event simulation (DES) model for patients 65 years of age initiating a statin after a first CVE consisting of either an acute myocardial infarction (AMI) or a stroke. The model evaluates the potential economic value of a hypothetical PGx test for diagnosing statin-induced myopathy. We have assessed the model over the spectrum of test sensitivity and specificity parameters. Our model showed that a strategy with a perfect PGx test had an incremental cost-utility ratio of 4273 Canadian dollars ($Can) per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). The probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that when the payer willingness-to-pay per QALY reaches $Can12,000, the PGx strategy is favored in 90% of the model simulations. We found that a strategy favoring patients staying on statin therapy is cost effective even if patients maintained on statin are at risk of rhabdomyolysis. Our results are explained by the fact that statins are highly effective in reducing the CV risk in patients at high CV risk, and this benefit largely outweighs the risk of rhabdomyolysis.

Incremental cost-effectiveness of algorithm-driven genetic testing versus no testing for Maturity Onset Diabetes of the Young (MODY) in Singapore.

PubMed

Nguyen, Hai Van; Finkelstein, Eric Andrew; Mital, Shweta; Gardner, Daphne Su-Lyn

2017-11-01

Offering genetic testing for Maturity Onset Diabetes of the Young (MODY) to all young patients with type 2 diabetes has been shown to be not cost-effective. This study tests whether a novel algorithm-driven genetic testing strategy for MODY is incrementally cost-effective relative to the setting of no testing. A decision tree was constructed to estimate the costs and effectiveness of the algorithm-driven MODY testing strategy and a strategy of no genetic testing over a 30-year time horizon from a payer's perspective. The algorithm uses glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD) antibody testing (negative antibodies), age of onset of diabetes (<45 years) and body mass index (<25 kg/m 2 if diagnosed >30 years) to stratify the population of patients with diabetes into three subgroups, and testing for MODY only among the subgroup most likely to have the mutation. Singapore-specific costs and prevalence of MODY obtained from local studies and utility values sourced from the literature are used to populate the model. The algorithm-driven MODY testing strategy has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of US$93 663 per quality-adjusted life year relative to the no testing strategy. If the price of genetic testing falls from US$1050 to US$530 (a 50% decrease), it will become cost-effective. Our proposed algorithm-driven testing strategy for MODY is not yet cost-effective based on established benchmarks. However, as genetic testing prices continue to fall, this strategy is likely to become cost-effective in the near future. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Models of conceptual understanding in human respiration and strategies for instruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rea-Ramirez, Mary Anne

Prior research has indicated that students of all ages show little understanding of respiration beyond breathing in and out and the need for air to survive. This occurs even after instruction with alternative conceptions persisting into adulthood. Whether this is due to specific educational strategies or to the level of difficulty in understanding a complex system is an important question. The purpose of this study was to obtain a deeper understanding of middle school students' development of mental models of human respiration. The study was composed of two major parts, one concerned with documenting and analyzing how students learn, and one concerned with measuring the effect of teaching strategies. This was carried out through a pre-test, "learning aloud" case studies in which students engaged in one-on-one tutoring interviews with the researcher, and a post-test. Transcript data from the intervention and post-test indicates that all students in this study were successful in constructing mental models of a complex concept, respiration, and in successfully applying these mental models to transfer problems. Differences in the pretest and posttest means were on the order of two standard deviations in size. While findings were uncovered in the use of a variety of strategies, possibly most interesting are the new views of analogies as an instructional strategy. Some analogies appear to be effective in supporting construction of visual/spatial features. Providing multiple, simple analogies that allow the student to construct new models in small steps, using student generated analogies, and using analogies to determine prior knowledge may also increase the effectiveness of analogies. Evidence suggested that students were able to extend the dynamic properties of certain analogies to the dynamics of the target conception and that this, in turn, allowed students to use the new models to explain causal relationships and give new function to models. This suggests that construction of causal, dynamic mental models is supported by the use of analogies containing dynamic and causal relationships.

Cost-effectiveness of alternative strategies for interferon-γ release assays and tuberculin skin test in tuberculous uveitis.

PubMed

Ang, Marcus; Nguyen, Hai V; Kiew, Sieh Yean; Chen, Shu; Chee, Soon-Phaik; Finkelstein, Eric

2015-07-01

Although tuberculous uveitis remains a major cause of ocular morbidity in the developing world, there is no consensus on which diagnostic test or testing strategy is the most cost effective. In this study we carried out a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine the most cost-effective diagnostic test strategy. In this prospective study, we recruited 102 patients from Singapore National Eye Centre with signs suggestive of tuberculous uveitis. Using prospective data from this cohort and from published meta-analyses, we modelled the incremental cost effectiveness of the following strategies: tuberculin skin test (TST) only; interferon-γ release assay (IGRA) only; IGRA following a positive TST result; and dual-test strategy, conducting TST and IGRA at presentation. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each strategy and analysed using a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. In our population, the least cost effective was the IGRA-only strategy. The dual-test strategy was the most cost effective, with an improvement of 0.017 QALY at an incremental cost of $190 relative to the TST-only strategy (ICER $11,500); while the TST-only strategy was more cost effective than the third strategy, using IGRA following a positive TST result (ICER $3610). This remained consistent while varying the costs of IGRA and TST, the incidence of tuberculosis and tuberculous uveitis, as well as the diagnostic accuracy of IGRA and TST found in previous studies in various populations. The dual-test strategy (performing TST and IGRA at presentation) was the most cost effective strategy for the diagnosis of tuberculous uveitis in our population. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Cost effectiveness, the economic considerations of prenatal screening strategies for trisomy 21 in the Czech Republic.

PubMed

Dhaifalah, I; Májek, O

2012-02-01

To perform an incremental cost-effectiveness analysis for screening of trisomy 21 (Down syndrome) in the Czech Republic through a decision tree model designed to evaluate the costs and potential risks involved in using different strategies of screening. METHODS AND DATA ANALYSIS: Using decision-analysis modelling, we compared the cost-effectiveness of nine possible screening strategies for trisomy 21: 1. maternal age > or = 35 in first trimester, 2. maternal age > or = 35 in second trimester, 3. second trimester triple test (AFP, hCG, mu E3), 4. nuchal translucency measurement, 5. first trimester serum test (PAPP-A, fbeta-hCG), 6. first trimester combined (nuchal translucency, PAPP-A, fbeta-hCG) not in OSCAR manner, 7. first trimester combined (nuchal translucency, PAPP-A, fbeta-hCG) in OSCAR manner, 8. first trimester combined (nuchal translucency, nasal bone, PAPP-A, fbeta-hCG) not in OSCAR manner, 9. first trimester combined (nuchal translucency, nasal bone, PAPP-A, fbeta-hCG) in OSCAR manner. The analysis is performed from a health care payer perspective using relevant cost and outcomes related to each screening strategy in a cohort of 118,135 pregnant women presenting around 12 weeks of pregnancy in the Czech Republic. Using a computer spreadsheet Excel (Microsoft Corporation, Redmond, Wash) the following outcomes: overall cost-effectiveness, trisomy 21 cases detected, trisomy 21 live birth prevented and euploid losses from invasive procedures were obtained. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were also calculated by a comparison of strategy nine and strategy three (the current practice in the Czech Republic). Under the baseline assumptions, the model favors strategy nine as the most cost-effective trisomy 21 screening strategy. This strategy was the least expensive strategy per trisomy 21 cases averted. Although all the other strategies cost less, they all had lower trisomy 21 detection rates and higher numbers of procedure-related losses (except for strategies six and seven, which had same loss rate) compared with strategy nine. All strategies considered were cheaper compared with screening only by maternal age over 35 years. Adding the nasal bone and the OSCAR manner made strategy nine the most cost-effective one. The incremental cost-effectiveness (cost per additional trisomy 21 case prevented) comparing strategy nine and second trimester triple test (current practice in Czech Republic) yielded an additional baseline cost of 219,326 CZK. This would seem not to save money but due to the low false positive rate the test is less costly than might be expected and it is more cost-effective than the current practice in the Czech Republic (3,580,082 CZK for the current practice and 2,469,833 CZK for our strategy in terms of costs per DS case prevented). In our analysis the NT, NB, PAPP-A and fbeta-hCG combined test carried out in the first trimester was the most cost-effective screening strategy for trisomy 21 in the Czech Republic.

Learning strategies and general cognitive ability as predictors of gender- specific academic achievement

PubMed Central

Ruffing, Stephanie; Wach, F. -Sophie; Spinath, Frank M.; Brünken, Roland; Karbach, Julia

2015-01-01

Recent research has revealed that learning behavior is associated with academic achievement at the college level, but the impact of specific learning strategies on academic success as well as gender differences therein are still not clear. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate gender differences in the incremental contribution of learning strategies over general cognitive ability in the prediction of academic achievement. The relationship between these variables was examined by correlation analyses. A set of t-tests was used to test for gender differences in learning strategies, whereas structural equation modeling as well as multi-group analyses were applied to investigate the incremental contribution of learning strategies for male and female students’ academic performance. The sample consisted of 461 students (mean age = 21.2 years, SD = 3.2). Correlation analyses revealed that general cognitive ability as well as the learning strategies effort, attention, and learning environment were positively correlated with academic achievement. Gender differences were found in the reported application of many learning strategies. Importantly, the prediction of achievement in structural equation modeling revealed that only effort explained incremental variance (10%) over general cognitive ability. Results of multi-group analyses showed no gender differences in this prediction model. This finding provides further knowledge regarding gender differences in learning research and the specific role of learning strategies for academic achievement. The incremental assessment of learning strategy use as well as gender-differences in their predictive value contributes to the understanding and improvement of successful academic development. PMID:26347698

Learning strategies and general cognitive ability as predictors of gender- specific academic achievement.

PubMed

Ruffing, Stephanie; Wach, F-Sophie; Spinath, Frank M; Brünken, Roland; Karbach, Julia

2015-01-01

Recent research has revealed that learning behavior is associated with academic achievement at the college level, but the impact of specific learning strategies on academic success as well as gender differences therein are still not clear. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate gender differences in the incremental contribution of learning strategies over general cognitive ability in the prediction of academic achievement. The relationship between these variables was examined by correlation analyses. A set of t-tests was used to test for gender differences in learning strategies, whereas structural equation modeling as well as multi-group analyses were applied to investigate the incremental contribution of learning strategies for male and female students' academic performance. The sample consisted of 461 students (mean age = 21.2 years, SD = 3.2). Correlation analyses revealed that general cognitive ability as well as the learning strategies effort, attention, and learning environment were positively correlated with academic achievement. Gender differences were found in the reported application of many learning strategies. Importantly, the prediction of achievement in structural equation modeling revealed that only effort explained incremental variance (10%) over general cognitive ability. Results of multi-group analyses showed no gender differences in this prediction model. This finding provides further knowledge regarding gender differences in learning research and the specific role of learning strategies for academic achievement. The incremental assessment of learning strategy use as well as gender-differences in their predictive value contributes to the understanding and improvement of successful academic development.

Academic Self-Concept and Learning Strategies: Direction of Effect on Student Academic Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McInerney, Dennis M.; Cheng, Rebecca Wing-yi; Mok, Magdalena Mo Ching; Lam, Amy Kwok Hap

2012-01-01

This study examined the prediction of academic self-concept (English and Mathematics) and learning strategies (deep and surface), and their direction of effect, on academic achievement (English and Mathematics) of 8,354 students from 16 secondary schools in Hong Kong. Two competing models were tested to ascertain the direction of effect: Model A…

TREAT Modeling and Simulation Strategy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeHart, Mark David

2015-09-01

This report summarizes a four-phase process used to describe the strategy in developing modeling and simulation software for the Transient Reactor Test Facility. The four phases of this research and development task are identified as (1) full core transient calculations with feedback, (2) experiment modeling, (3) full core plus experiment simulation and (4) quality assurance. The document describes the four phases, the relationship between these research phases, and anticipated needs within each phase.

Assessing the Effectiveness and Cost-Benefit of Test-and-Vaccinate Policy for Supplementary Vaccination against Rubella with Limited Doses

PubMed Central

Saito, Masaya M.; Kinoshita, Ryo

2018-01-01

Elevating herd immunity level against rubella is essential to prevent congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). Insufficient vaccination coverage left susceptible pockets among adults in Japan, and the outbreak of rubella from 2012 to 2013 resulted in 45 observed CRS cases. Given a limited stock of rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) available, the Japanese government recommended healthcare providers to prioritize vaccination to those confirmed with low level of immunity, or to those likely to transmit to pregnant women. Although a test-and-vaccinate policy could potentially help reduce the use of the limited stockpile of vaccines, by selectively elevating herd immunity, the cost of serological testing is generally high and comparable to the vaccine itself. Here, we aimed to examine whether random vaccination would be more cost-beneficial than the test-and-vaccinate strategy. A mathematical model was employed to evaluate the vaccination policy implemented in 2012–2013, quantifying the benefit-to-cost ratio to achieve herd immunity. The modelling exercise demonstrated that, while the test-and-vaccinate strategy can efficiently achieve herd immunity when stockpiles of RCV are limited, random vaccination would be a more cost-beneficial strategy. As long as the herd immunity acts as the goal of vaccination, our findings apply to future supplementary immunization strategy. PMID:29565821

Strategy generalization across orientation tasks: testing a computational cognitive model.

PubMed

Gunzelmann, Glenn

2008-07-08

Humans use their spatial information processing abilities flexibly to facilitate problem solving and decision making in a variety of tasks. This article explores the question of whether a general strategy can be adapted for performing two different spatial orientation tasks by testing the predictions of a computational cognitive model. Human performance was measured on an orientation task requiring participants to identify the location of a target either on a map (find-on-map) or within an egocentric view of a space (find-in-scene). A general strategy instantiated in a computational cognitive model of the find-on-map task, based on the results from Gunzelmann and Anderson (2006), was adapted to perform both tasks and used to generate performance predictions for a new study. The qualitative fit of the model to the human data supports the view that participants were able to tailor a general strategy to the requirements of particular spatial tasks. The quantitative differences between the predictions of the model and the performance of human participants in the new experiment expose individual differences in sample populations. The model provides a means of accounting for those differences and a framework for understanding how human spatial abilities are applied to naturalistic spatial tasks that involve reasoning with maps. 2008 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Fitting the Mixed Rasch Model to a Reading Comprehension Test: Exploring Individual Difference Profiles in L2 Reading

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aryadoust, Vahid; Zhang, Limei

2016-01-01

The present study used the mixed Rasch model (MRM) to identify subgroups of readers within a sample of students taking an EFL reading comprehension test. Six hundred and two (602) Chinese college students took a reading test and a lexico-grammatical knowledge test and completed a Metacognitive and Cognitive Strategy Use Questionnaire (MCSUQ)…

Optimal use of colonoscopy and fecal immunochemical test for population-based colorectal cancer screening: a cost-effectiveness analysis using Japanese data.

PubMed

Sekiguchi, Masau; Igarashi, Ataru; Matsuda, Takahisa; Matsumoto, Minori; Sakamoto, Taku; Nakajima, Takeshi; Kakugawa, Yasuo; Yamamoto, Seiichiro; Saito, Hiroshi; Saito, Yutaka

2016-02-01

There have been few cost-effectiveness analyses of population-based colorectal cancer screening in Japan, and there is no consensus on the optimal use of total colonoscopy and the fecal immunochemical test for colorectal cancer screening with regard to cost-effectiveness and total colonoscopy workload. The present study aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening using Japanese data to identify the optimal use of total colonoscopy and fecal immunochemical test. We developed a Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of colorectal cancer screening offered to an average-risk population aged 40 years or over. The cost, quality-adjusted life-years and number of total colonoscopy procedures required were evaluated for three screening strategies: (i) a fecal immunochemical test-based strategy; (ii) a total colonoscopy-based strategy; (iii) a strategy of adding population-wide total colonoscopy at 50 years to a fecal immunochemical test-based strategy. All three strategies dominated no screening. Among the three, Strategy 1 was dominated by Strategy 3, and the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life-years gained for Strategy 2 against Strategies 1 and 3 were JPY 293 616 and JPY 781 342, respectively. Within the Japanese threshold (JPY 5-6 million per QALY gained), Strategy 2 was the most cost-effective, followed by Strategy 3; however, Strategy 2 required more than double the number of total colonoscopy procedures than the other strategies. The total colonoscopy-based strategy could be the most cost-effective for population-based colorectal cancer screening in Japan. However, it requires more total colonoscopy procedures than the other strategies. Depending on total colonoscopy capacity, the strategy of adding total colonoscopy for individuals at a specified age to a fecal immunochemical test-based screening may be an optimal solution. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Distinct discrimination learning strategies and their relation with spatial memory and attentional control in 4- to 14-year-olds.

PubMed

Schmittmann, Verena D; van der Maas, Han L J; Raijmakers, Maartje E J

2012-04-01

Behavioral, psychophysiological, and neuropsychological studies have revealed large developmental differences in various learning paradigms where learning from positive and negative feedback is essential. The differences are possibly due to the use of distinct strategies that may be related to spatial working memory and attentional control. In this study, strategies in performing a discrimination learning task were distinguished in a cross-sectional sample of 302 children from 4 to 14 years of age. The trial-by-trial accuracy data were analyzed with mathematical learning models. The best-fitting model revealed three learning strategies: hypothesis testing, slow abrupt learning, and nonlearning. The proportion of hypothesis-testing children increased with age. Nonlearners were present only in the youngest age group. Feature preferences for the irrelevant dimension had a detrimental effect on performance in the youngest age group. The executive functions spatial working memory and attentional control significantly predicted posterior learning strategy probabilities after controlling for age. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recommendations for Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Prevention in Adult ICUs: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Whittington, Melanie D; Atherly, Adam J; Curtis, Donna J; Lindrooth, Richard C; Bradley, Cathy J; Campbell, Jonathan D

2017-08-01

Patients in the ICU are at the greatest risk of contracting healthcare-associated infections like methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus. This study calculates the cost-effectiveness of methicillin-resistant S aureus prevention strategies and recommends specific strategies based on screening test implementation. A cost-effectiveness analysis using a Markov model from the hospital perspective was conducted to determine if the implementation costs of methicillin-resistant S aureus prevention strategies are justified by associated reductions in methicillin-resistant S aureus infections and improvements in quality-adjusted life years. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses determined the influence of input variation on the cost-effectiveness. ICU. Hypothetical cohort of adults admitted to the ICU. Three prevention strategies were evaluated, including universal decolonization, targeted decolonization, and screening and isolation. Because prevention strategies have a screening component, the screening test in the model was varied to reflect commonly used screening test categories, including conventional culture, chromogenic agar, and polymerase chain reaction. Universal and targeted decolonization are less costly and more effective than screening and isolation. This is consistent for all screening tests. When compared with targeted decolonization, universal decolonization is cost-saving to cost-effective, with maximum cost savings occurring when a hospital uses more expensive screening tests like polymerase chain reaction. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses. As compared with screening and isolation, the current standard practice in ICUs, targeted decolonization, and universal decolonization are less costly and more effective. This supports updating the standard practice to a decolonization approach.

Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning Model for Effective Action Selection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Youk, Sang Jo; Lee, Bong Keun

Reinforcement learning is a sub area of machine learning concerned with how an agent ought to take actions in an environment so as to maximize some notion of long-term reward. In the case of multi-agent, especially, which state space and action space gets very enormous in compared to single agent, so it needs to take most effective measure available select the action strategy for effective reinforcement learning. This paper proposes a multi-agent reinforcement learning model based on fuzzy inference system in order to improve learning collect speed and select an effective action in multi-agent. This paper verifies an effective action select strategy through evaluation tests based on Robocop Keep away which is one of useful test-beds for multi-agent. Our proposed model can apply to evaluate efficiency of the various intelligent multi-agents and also can apply to strategy and tactics of robot soccer system.

Flight-management strategies for escape from microburst encounters. M.S. Thesis - George Washington Univ.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hinton, David A.

1988-01-01

An effort is underway by NASA, FAA, and industry to reduce the threat of convective microburst wind shear phenomena to aircraft. The goal is to develop and test a candidate set of strategies for recovery from inadvertent microburst encounters during takeoff. Candidate strategies were developed and evaluated using a fast-time simulation consisting of a simple point-mass performance model of a transport-category airplane and an analytical microburst model. The results indicate that the recovery strategy characteristics that best utilize available airplane energy include an initial reduction in pitch attitude to reduce the climb rate, followed by an increase in pitch up to the stick shaker angle of attack. The stick shaker angle of attack should be reached just as the airplane is exiting the microburst. The shallowest angle of climb necessary for obstacle clearance should be used. If the altitude is higher than necessary, an intentional descent to reduce the airspeed deceleration should be used. Of the strategies tested, two flight-path-angle based strategies had the highest recovery altitudes and the least sensitivity to variations in the encounter scenarios.

Detecting Controller Malfunctions in Electromagnetic Environments. Part 1; Modeling and Estimation of Nominal System Function

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weinstein, Bernice

1999-01-01

A strategy for detecting control law calculation errors in critical flight control computers during laboratory validation testing is presented. This paper addresses Part I of the detection strategy which involves the use of modeling of the aircraft control laws and the design of Kalman filters to predict the correct control commands. Part II of the strategy which involves the use of the predicted control commands to detect control command errors is presented in the companion paper.

Control Oriented Modeling and Validation of Aeroservoelastic Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Crowder, Marianne; deCallafon, Raymond (Principal Investigator)

2002-01-01

Lightweight aircraft design emphasizes the reduction of structural weight to maximize aircraft efficiency and agility at the cost of increasing the likelihood of structural dynamic instabilities. To ensure flight safety, extensive flight testing and active structural servo control strategies are required to explore and expand the boundary of the flight envelope. Aeroservoelastic (ASE) models can provide online flight monitoring of dynamic instabilities to reduce flight time testing and increase flight safety. The success of ASE models is determined by the ability to take into account varying flight conditions and the possibility to perform flight monitoring under the presence of active structural servo control strategies. In this continued study, these aspects are addressed by developing specific methodologies and algorithms for control relevant robust identification and model validation of aeroservoelastic structures. The closed-loop model robust identification and model validation are based on a fractional model approach where the model uncertainties are characterized in a closed-loop relevant way.

Cost-effective Diagnostic Checklists for Meningitis in Resource Limited Settings

PubMed Central

Durski, Kara N.; Kuntz, Karen M.; Yasukawa, Kosuke; Virnig, Beth A.; Meya, David B.; Boulware, David R.

2013-01-01

Background Checklists can standardize patient care, reduce errors, and improve health outcomes. For meningitis in resource-limited settings, with high patient loads and limited financial resources, CNS diagnostic algorithms may be useful to guide diagnosis and treatment. However, the cost-effectiveness of such algorithms is unknown. Methods We used decision analysis methodology to evaluate the costs, diagnostic yield, and cost-effectiveness of diagnostic strategies for adults with suspected meningitis in resource limited settings with moderate/high HIV prevalence. We considered three strategies: 1) comprehensive “shotgun” approach of utilizing all routine tests; 2) “stepwise” strategy with tests performed in a specific order with additional TB diagnostics; 3) “minimalist” strategy of sequential ordering of high-yield tests only. Each strategy resulted in one of four meningitis diagnoses: bacterial (4%), cryptococcal (59%), TB (8%), or other (aseptic) meningitis (29%). In model development, we utilized prevalence data from two Ugandan sites and published data on test performance. We validated the strategies with data from Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. Results The current comprehensive testing strategy resulted in 93.3% correct meningitis diagnoses costing $32.00/patient. A stepwise strategy had 93.8% correct diagnoses costing an average of $9.72/patient, and a minimalist strategy had 91.1% correct diagnoses costing an average of $6.17/patient. The incremental cost effectiveness ratio was $133 per additional correct diagnosis for the stepwise over minimalist strategy. Conclusions Through strategically choosing the order and type of testing coupled with disease prevalence rates, algorithms can deliver more care more efficiently. The algorithms presented herein are generalizable to East Africa and Southern Africa. PMID:23466647

A comparison of WEC control strategies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wilson, David G.; Bacelli, Giorgio; Coe, Ryan Geoffrey

2016-04-01

The operation of Wave Energy Converter (WEC) devices can pose many challenging problems to the Water Power Community. A key research question is how to significantly improve the performance of these WEC devices through improving the control system design. This report summarizes an effort to analyze and improve the performance of WEC through the design and implementation of control systems. Controllers were selected to span the WEC control design space with the aim of building a more comprehensive understanding of different controller capabilities and requirements. To design and evaluate these control strategies, a model scale test-bed WEC was designed formore » both numerical and experimental testing (see Section 1.1). Seven control strategies have been developed and applied on a numerical model of the selected WEC. This model is capable of performing at a range of levels, spanning from a fully-linear realization to varying levels of nonlinearity. The details of this model and its ongoing development are described in Section 1.2.« less

An Experimental Test of a Model for Decision Strategy Selection

DTIC Science & Technology

1977-12-01

University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 1l. CONTROLLING OFFICE NAME AND ADDRESS 12. REPORT DATE Organizational Effectiveness Research Programg... Controlling Office) IS. SECURITY CLASS, (of this report) UNCLASSI FIED 15. DECLASSIFICATION/DOWNGRADING SCHEDULE 16. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT (of this Report... Equivalence Interval Decision Maker Cost Curve Strategy Cost Expected Net Utility Effect of the Value of the Perceived Strategy Da ision Strategies Decision on

Modeling Individual Patient Preferences for Colorectal Cancer Screening Based on Their Tolerance for Complications Risk.

PubMed

Taksler, Glen B; Perzynski, Adam T; Kattan, Michael W

2017-04-01

Recommendations for colorectal cancer screening encourage patients to choose among various screening methods based on individual preferences for benefits, risks, screening frequency, and discomfort. We devised a model to illustrate how individuals with varying tolerance for screening complications risk might decide on their preferred screening strategy. We developed a discrete-time Markov mathematical model that allowed hypothetical individuals to maximize expected lifetime utility by selecting screening method, start age, stop age, and frequency. Individuals could choose from stool-based testing every 1 to 3 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy every 1 to 20 years with annual stool-based testing, colonoscopy every 1 to 20 years, or no screening. We compared the life expectancy gained from the chosen strategy with the life expectancy available from a benchmark strategy of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual at average risk of colorectal cancer who was risk neutral with respect to screening complications (and therefore was willing to undergo screening if it would actuarially increase life expectancy), the model predicted that he or she would choose colonoscopy every 10 years, from age 53 to 73 years, consistent with national guidelines. For a similar individual who was moderately averse to screening complications risk (and therefore required a greater increase in life expectancy to accept potential risks of colonoscopy), the model predicted that he or she would prefer flexible sigmoidoscopy every 12 years with annual stool-based testing, with 93% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. For an individual with higher risk aversion, the model predicted that he or she would prefer 2 lifetime flexible sigmoidoscopies, 20 years apart, with 70% of the life expectancy benefit of decennial colonoscopy. Mathematical models may formalize how individuals with different risk attitudes choose between various guideline-recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies.

Interactions of spatial strategies producing generalization gradient and blocking: A computational approach

PubMed Central

Dollé, Laurent; Chavarriaga, Ricardo

2018-01-01

We present a computational model of spatial navigation comprising different learning mechanisms in mammals, i.e., associative, cognitive mapping and parallel systems. This model is able to reproduce a large number of experimental results in different variants of the Morris water maze task, including standard associative phenomena (spatial generalization gradient and blocking), as well as navigation based on cognitive mapping. Furthermore, we show that competitive and cooperative patterns between different navigation strategies in the model allow to explain previous apparently contradictory results supporting either associative or cognitive mechanisms for spatial learning. The key computational mechanism to reconcile experimental results showing different influences of distal and proximal cues on the behavior, different learning times, and different abilities of individuals to alternatively perform spatial and response strategies, relies in the dynamic coordination of navigation strategies, whose performance is evaluated online with a common currency through a modular approach. We provide a set of concrete experimental predictions to further test the computational model. Overall, this computational work sheds new light on inter-individual differences in navigation learning, and provides a formal and mechanistic approach to test various theories of spatial cognition in mammals. PMID:29630600

Force on Force Modeling with Formal Task Structures and Dynamic Geometry

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-03-24

task framework, derived using the MMF methodology to structure a complex mission. It further demonstrated the integration of effects from a range of...application methodology was intended to support a combined developmental testing (DT) and operational testing (OT) strategy for selected systems under test... methodology to develop new or modify existing Models and Simulations (M&S) to: • Apply data from multiple, distributed sources (including test

Modeling complex treatment strategies: construction and validation of a discrete event simulation model for glaucoma.

PubMed

van Gestel, Aukje; Severens, Johan L; Webers, Carroll A B; Beckers, Henny J M; Jansonius, Nomdo M; Schouten, Jan S A G

2010-01-01

Discrete event simulation (DES) modeling has several advantages over simpler modeling techniques in health economics, such as increased flexibility and the ability to model complex systems. Nevertheless, these benefits may come at the cost of reduced transparency, which may compromise the model's face validity and credibility. We aimed to produce a transparent report on the construction and validation of a DES model using a recently developed model of ocular hypertension and glaucoma. Current evidence of associations between prognostic factors and disease progression in ocular hypertension and glaucoma was translated into DES model elements. The model was extended to simulate treatment decisions and effects. Utility and costs were linked to disease status and treatment, and clinical and health economic outcomes were defined. The model was validated at several levels. The soundness of design and the plausibility of input estimates were evaluated in interdisciplinary meetings (face validity). Individual patients were traced throughout the simulation under a multitude of model settings to debug the model, and the model was run with a variety of extreme scenarios to compare the outcomes with prior expectations (internal validity). Finally, several intermediate (clinical) outcomes of the model were compared with those observed in experimental or observational studies (external validity) and the feasibility of evaluating hypothetical treatment strategies was tested. The model performed well in all validity tests. Analyses of hypothetical treatment strategies took about 30 minutes per cohort and lead to plausible health-economic outcomes. There is added value of DES models in complex treatment strategies such as glaucoma. Achieving transparency in model structure and outcomes may require some effort in reporting and validating the model, but it is feasible.

Application of a Mixed Consequential Ethical Model to a Problem Regarding Test Standards.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Busch, John Christian

The work of the ethicist Charles Curran and the problem-solving strategy of the mixed consequentialist ethical model are applied to a traditional social science measurement problem--that of how to adjust a recommended standard in order to be fair to the test-taker and society. The focus is on criterion-referenced teacher certification tests.…

Opt-out screening strategy for HIV infection among patients attending emergency departments: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Henriquez-Camacho, C; Villafuerte-Gutierrez, P; Pérez-Molina, J A; Losa, J; Gotuzzo, E; Cheyne, N

2017-07-01

International health agencies have promoted nontargeted universal (opt-out) HIV screening tests in different settings, including emergency departments (EDs). We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the testing uptake of strategies (opt-in targeted, opt-in nontargeted and opt-out) to detect new cases of HIV infection in EDs. We searched the Pubmed and Embase databases, from 1984 to April 2015, for opt-in and opt-out HIV diagnostic strategies used in EDs. Randomized controlled or quasi experimental studies were included. We assessed the percentage of positive individuals tested for HIV infection in each programme (opt-in and opt-out strategies). The mean percentage was estimated by combining studies in a random-effect meta-analysis. The percentages of individuals tested in the programmes were compared in a random-effect meta-regression model. Data were analysed using stata version 12. Quality assessments were performed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. Of the 90 papers identified, 28 were eligible for inclusion. Eight trials used opt-out, 18 trials used opt-in, and two trials used both to detect new cases of HIV infection. The test was accepted and taken by 75 155 of 172 237 patients (44%) in the opt-out strategy, and 73 581 of 382 992 patients (19%) in the opt-in strategy. The prevalence of HIV infection detected by the opt-out strategy was 0.40% (373 cases), that detected by the opt-in nontargeted strategy was 0.52% (419 cases), and that detected by the opt-in targeted strategy was 1.06% (52 cases). In this meta-analysis, the testing uptake of the opt-out strategy was not different from that of the opt-in strategy to detect new cases of HIV infection in EDs. © 2016 British HIV Association.

Health benefits and cost-effectiveness of a hybrid screening strategy for colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Dinh, Tuan; Ladabaum, Uri; Alperin, Peter; Caldwell, Cindy; Smith, Robert; Levin, Theodore R

2013-09-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening guidelines recommend screening schedules for each single type of test except for concurrent sigmoidoscopy and fecal occult blood test (FOBT). We investigated the cost-effectiveness of a hybrid screening strategy that was based on a fecal immunological test (FIT) and colonoscopy. We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis by using the Archimedes Model to evaluate the effects of different CRC screening strategies on health outcomes and costs related to CRC in a population that represents members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California. The Archimedes Model is a large-scale simulation of human physiology, diseases, interventions, and health care systems. The CRC submodel in the Archimedes Model was derived from public databases, published epidemiologic studies, and clinical trials. A hybrid screening strategy led to substantial reductions in CRC incidence and mortality, gains in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and reductions in costs, comparable with those of the best single-test strategies. Screening by annual FIT of patients 50-65 years old and then a single colonoscopy when they were 66 years old (FIT/COLOx1) reduced CRC incidence by 72% and gained 110 QALYs for every 1000 people during a period of 30 years, compared with no screening. Compared with annual FIT, FIT/COLOx1 gained 1400 QALYs/100,000 persons at an incremental cost of $9700/QALY gained and required 55% fewer FITs. Compared with FIT/COLOx1, colonoscopy at 10-year intervals gained 500 QALYs/100,000 at an incremental cost of $35,100/QALY gained but required 37% more colonoscopies. Over the ranges of parameters examined, the cost-effectiveness of hybrid screening strategies was slightly more sensitive to the adherence rate with colonoscopy than the adherence rate with yearly FIT. Uncertainties associated with estimates of FIT performance within a program setting and sensitivities for flat and right-sided lesions are expected to have significant impacts on the cost-effectiveness results. In our simulation model, a strategy of annual or biennial FIT, beginning when patients are 50 years old, with a single colonoscopy when they are 66 years old, delivers clinical and economic outcomes similar to those of CRC screening by single-modality strategies, with a favorable impact on resources demand. Copyright © 2013 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Model of Statistics Performance Based on Achievement Goal Theory.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bandalos, Deborah L.; Finney, Sara J.; Geske, Jenenne A.

2003-01-01

Tests a model of statistics performance based on achievement goal theory. Both learning and performance goals affected achievement indirectly through study strategies, self-efficacy, and test anxiety. Implications of these findings for teaching and learning statistics are discussed. (Contains 47 references, 3 tables, 3 figures, and 1 appendix.)…

A model-based assessment of the cost-utility of strategies to identify Lynch syndrome in early-onset colorectal cancer patients.

PubMed

Snowsill, Tristan; Huxley, Nicola; Hoyle, Martin; Jones-Hughes, Tracey; Coelho, Helen; Cooper, Chris; Frayling, Ian; Hyde, Chris

2015-04-25

Lynch syndrome is an autosomal dominant cancer predisposition syndrome caused by mutations in the DNA mismatch repair genes MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 and PMS2. Individuals with Lynch syndrome have an increased risk of colorectal cancer, endometrial cancer, ovarian and other cancers. Lynch syndrome remains underdiagnosed in the UK. Reflex testing for Lynch syndrome in early-onset colorectal cancer patients is proposed as a method to identify more families affected by Lynch syndrome and offer surveillance to reduce cancer risks, although cost-effectiveness is viewed as a barrier to implementation. The objective of this project was to estimate the cost-utility of strategies to identify Lynch syndrome in individuals with early-onset colorectal cancer in the NHS. A decision analytic model was developed which simulated diagnostic and long-term outcomes over a lifetime horizon for colorectal cancer patients with and without Lynch syndrome and for relatives of those patients. Nine diagnostic strategies were modelled which included microsatellite instability (MSI) testing, immunohistochemistry (IHC), BRAF mutation testing (methylation testing in a scenario analysis), diagnostic mutation testing and Amsterdam II criteria. Biennial colonoscopic surveillance was included for individuals diagnosed with Lynch syndrome and accepting surveillance. Prophylactic hysterectomy with bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (H-BSO) was similarly included for women diagnosed with Lynch syndrome. Costs from NHS and Personal Social Services perspective and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were estimated and discounted at 3.5% per annum. All strategies included for the identification of Lynch syndrome were cost-effective versus no testing. The strategy with the greatest net health benefit was MSI followed by BRAF followed by diagnostic genetic testing, costing £5,491 per QALY gained over no testing. The effect of prophylactic H-BSO on health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is uncertain and could outweigh the health benefits of testing, resulting in overall QALY loss. Reflex testing for Lynch syndrome in early-onset colorectal cancer patients is predicted to be a cost-effective use of limited financial resources in England and Wales. Research is recommended into the cost-effectiveness of reflex testing for Lynch syndrome in other associated cancers and into the impact of prophylactic H-BSO on HRQoL.

Electric Water Heater Modeling and Control Strategies for Demand Response

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Diao, Ruisheng; Lu, Shuai; Elizondo, Marcelo A.

2012-07-22

Abstract— Demand response (DR) has a great potential to provide balancing services at normal operating conditions and emergency support when a power system is subject to disturbances. Effective control strategies can significantly relieve the balancing burden of conventional generators and reduce investment on generation and transmission expansion. This paper is aimed at modeling electric water heaters (EWH) in households and tests their response to control strategies to implement DR. The open-loop response of EWH to a centralized signal is studied by adjusting temperature settings to provide regulation services; and two types of decentralized controllers are tested to provide frequency supportmore » following generator trips. EWH models are included in a simulation platform in DIgSILENT to perform electromechanical simulation, which contains 147 households in a distribution feeder. Simulation results show the dependence of EWH response on water heater usage . These results provide insight suggestions on the need of control strategies to achieve better performance for demand response implementation. Index Terms— Centralized control, decentralized control, demand response, electrical water heater, smart grid« less

Impact and cost-effectiveness of chlamydia testing in Scotland: a mathematical modelling study.

PubMed

Looker, Katharine J; Wallace, Lesley A; Turner, Katherine M E

2015-01-15

Chlamydia is the most common sexually transmitted bacterial infection in Scotland, and is associated with potentially serious reproductive outcomes, including pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) and tubal factor infertility (TFI) in women. Chlamydia testing in Scotland is currently targeted towards symptomatic individuals, individuals at high risk of existing undetected infection, and young people. The cost-effectiveness of testing and treatment to prevent PID and TFI in Scotland is uncertain. A compartmental deterministic dynamic model of chlamydia infection in 15-24 year olds in Scotland was developed. The model was used to estimate the impact of a change in testing strategy from baseline (16.8% overall testing coverage; 0.4 partners notified and tested/treated per treated positive index) on PID and TFI cases. Cost-effectiveness calculations informed by best-available estimates of the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) lost due to PID and TFI were also performed. Increasing overall testing coverage by 50% from baseline to 25.2% is estimated to result in 21% fewer cases in young women each year (PID: 703 fewer; TFI: 88 fewer). A 50% decrease to 8.4% would result in 20% more PID (669 additional) and TFI (84 additional) cases occurring annually. The cost per QALY gained of current testing activities compared to no testing is £40,034, which is above the £20,000-£30,000 cost-effectiveness threshold. However, calculations are hampered by lack of reliable data. Any increase in partner notification from baseline would be cost-effective (incremental cost per QALY gained for a partner notification efficacy of 1 compared to baseline: £5,119), and would increase the cost-effectiveness of current testing strategy compared to no testing, with threshold cost-effectiveness reached at a partner notification efficacy of 1.5. However, there is uncertainty in the extent to which partner notification is currently done, and hence the amount by which it could potentially be increased. Current chlamydia testing strategy in Scotland is not cost-effective under the conservative model assumptions applied. However, with better data enabling some of these assumptions to be relaxed, current coverage could be cost-effective. Meanwhile, increasing partner notification efficacy on its own would be a cost-effective way of preventing PID and TFI from current strategy.

Real-world datasets for portfolio selection and solutions of some stochastic dominance portfolio models.

PubMed

Bruni, Renato; Cesarone, Francesco; Scozzari, Andrea; Tardella, Fabio

2016-09-01

A large number of portfolio selection models have appeared in the literature since the pioneering work of Markowitz. However, even when computational and empirical results are described, they are often hard to replicate and compare due to the unavailability of the datasets used in the experiments. We provide here several datasets for portfolio selection generated using real-world price values from several major stock markets. The datasets contain weekly return values, adjusted for dividends and for stock splits, which are cleaned from errors as much as possible. The datasets are available in different formats, and can be used as benchmarks for testing the performances of portfolio selection models and for comparing the efficiency of the algorithms used to solve them. We also provide, for these datasets, the portfolios obtained by several selection strategies based on Stochastic Dominance models (see "On Exact and Approximate Stochastic Dominance Strategies for Portfolio Selection" (Bruni et al. [2])). We believe that testing portfolio models on publicly available datasets greatly simplifies the comparison of the different portfolio selection strategies.

Local tolerance testing under REACH: Accepted non-animal methods are not on equal footing with animal tests.

PubMed

Sauer, Ursula G; Hill, Erin H; Curren, Rodger D; Raabe, Hans A; Kolle, Susanne N; Teubner, Wera; Mehling, Annette; Landsiedel, Robert

2016-07-01

In general, no single non-animal method can cover the complexity of any given animal test. Therefore, fixed sets of in vitro (and in chemico) methods have been combined into testing strategies for skin and eye irritation and skin sensitisation testing, with pre-defined prediction models for substance classification. Many of these methods have been adopted as OECD test guidelines. Various testing strategies have been successfully validated in extensive in-house and inter-laboratory studies, but they have not yet received formal acceptance for substance classification. Therefore, under the European REACH Regulation, data from testing strategies can, in general, only be used in so-called weight-of-evidence approaches. While animal testing data generated under the specific REACH information requirements are per se sufficient, the sufficiency of weight-of-evidence approaches can be questioned under the REACH system, and further animal testing can be required. This constitutes an imbalance between the regulatory acceptance of data from approved non-animal methods and animal tests that is not justified on scientific grounds. To ensure that testing strategies for local tolerance testing truly serve to replace animal testing for the REACH registration 2018 deadline (when the majority of existing chemicals have to be registered), clarity on their regulatory acceptance as complete replacements is urgently required. 2016 FRAME.

Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening in women living with HIV in South Africa: A mathematical modeling study.

PubMed

Campos, Nicole G; Lince-Deroche, Naomi; Chibwesha, Carla J; Firnhaber, Cynthia; Smith, Jennifer S; Michelow, Pam; Meyer-Rath, Gesine; Jamieson, Lise; Jordaan, Suzette; Sharma, Monisha; Regan, Catherine; Sy, Stephen; Liu, Gui; Tsu, Vivien; Jeronimo, Jose; Kim, Jane J

2018-06-15

Women with HIV face an increased risk of human papillomavirus (HPV) acquisition and persistence, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia, and invasive cervical cancer. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of different cervical cancer screening strategies among women with HIV in South Africa. We modified a mathematical model of HPV infection and cervical disease to reflect co-infection with HIV. The model was calibrated to epidemiologic data from HIV-infected women in South Africa. Clinical and economic data were drawn from in-country data sources. The model was used to project reductions in the lifetime risk of cervical cancer and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of Pap and HPV DNA screening and management algorithms beginning at HIV diagnosis, at one-, two-, or three-year intervals. Strategies with an ICER below South Africa's 2016 per capita GDP (US$5,270) were considered 'cost-effective.' HPV testing followed by treatment (test-and-treat) at two-year intervals was the most effective strategy that was also cost-effective, reducing lifetime cancer risk by 56·6% with an ICER of US$3,010 per year of life saved (YLS). Other cost-effective strategies included Pap (referral threshold: HSIL+) at one-, two-, and three-year intervals, and HPV test-and-treat at three-year intervals. Pap (ASCUS+), HPV testing with 16/18 genotyping, and HPV testing with Pap or visual triage of HPV-positive women were less effective and more costly than alternatives. Considering per capita GDP as the benchmark for cost-effectiveness, HPV test-and-treat is optimal in South Africa. At lower cost-effectiveness benchmarks, Pap (HSIL+) would be optimal.This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 (CC BY), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Illustrating economic evaluation of diagnostic technologies: comparing Helicobacter pylori screening strategies in prevention of gastric cancer in Canada.

PubMed

Xie, Feng; O'Reilly, Daria; Ferrusi, Ilia L; Blackhouse, Gord; Bowen, James M; Tarride, Jean-Eric; Goeree, Ron

2009-05-01

The aim of this paper is to present an economic evaluation of diagnostic technologies using Helicobacter pylori screening strategies for the prevention of gastric cancer as an illustration. A Markov model was constructed to compare the lifetime cost and effectiveness of 4 potential strategies: no screening, the serology test by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), the stool antigen test (SAT), and the (13)C-urea breath test (UBT) for the detection of H. pylori among a hypothetical cohort of 10,000 Canadian men aged 35 years. Special parameter consideration included the sensitivity and specificity of each screening strategy, which determined the model structure and treatment regimen. The primary outcome measured was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio between the screening strategies and the no-screening strategy. Base-case analysis and probabilistic sensitivity analysis were performed using the point estimates of the parameters and Monte Carlo simulations, respectively. Compared with the no-screening strategy in the base-case analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $33,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for the ELISA, $29,800 per QALY for the SAT, and $50,400 per QALY for the UBT. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis revealed that the no-screening strategy was more cost effective if the willingness to pay (WTP) was <$20,000 per QALY, while the SAT had the highest probability of being cost effective if the WTP was >$30,000 per QALY. Both the ELISA and the UBT were not cost-effective strategies over a wide range of WTP values. Although the UBT had the highest sensitivity and specificity, either no screening or the SAT could be the most cost-effective strategy depending on the WTP threshold values from an economic perspective. This highlights the importance of economic evaluations of diagnostic technologies.

Improved animal models for testing gene therapy for atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Du, Liang; Zhang, Jingwan; De Meyer, Guido R Y; Flynn, Rowan; Dichek, David A

2014-04-01

Gene therapy delivered to the blood vessel wall could augment current therapies for atherosclerosis, including systemic drug therapy and stenting. However, identification of clinically useful vectors and effective therapeutic transgenes remains at the preclinical stage. Identification of effective vectors and transgenes would be accelerated by availability of animal models that allow practical and expeditious testing of vessel-wall-directed gene therapy. Such models would include humanlike lesions that develop rapidly in vessels that are amenable to efficient gene delivery. Moreover, because human atherosclerosis develops in normal vessels, gene therapy that prevents atherosclerosis is most logically tested in relatively normal arteries. Similarly, gene therapy that causes atherosclerosis regression requires gene delivery to an existing lesion. Here we report development of three new rabbit models for testing vessel-wall-directed gene therapy that either prevents or reverses atherosclerosis. Carotid artery intimal lesions in these new models develop within 2-7 months after initiation of a high-fat diet and are 20-80 times larger than lesions in a model we described previously. Individual models allow generation of lesions that are relatively rich in either macrophages or smooth muscle cells, permitting testing of gene therapy strategies targeted at either cell type. Two of the models include gene delivery to essentially normal arteries and will be useful for identifying strategies that prevent lesion development. The third model generates lesions rapidly in vector-naïve animals and can be used for testing gene therapy that promotes lesion regression. These models are optimized for testing helper-dependent adenovirus (HDAd)-mediated gene therapy; however, they could be easily adapted for testing of other vectors or of different types of molecular therapies, delivered directly to the blood vessel wall. Our data also supports the promise of HDAd to deliver long-term therapy from vascular endothelium without accelerating atherosclerotic disease.

Novel design strategy for checkpoint kinase 2 inhibitors using pharmacophore modeling, combinatorial fusion, and virtual screening.

PubMed

Lin, Chun-Yuan; Wang, Yen-Ling

2014-01-01

Checkpoint kinase 2 (Chk2) has a great effect on DNA-damage and plays an important role in response to DNA double-strand breaks and related lesions. In this study, we will concentrate on Chk2 and the purpose is to find the potential inhibitors by the pharmacophore hypotheses (PhModels), combinatorial fusion, and virtual screening techniques. Applying combinatorial fusion into PhModels and virtual screening techniques is a novel design strategy for drug design. We used combinatorial fusion to analyze the prediction results and then obtained the best correlation coefficient of the testing set (r test) with the value 0.816 by combining the Best(train)Best(test) and Fast(train)Fast(test) prediction results. The potential inhibitors were selected from NCI database by screening according to Best(train)Best(test) + Fast(train)Fast(test) prediction results and molecular docking with CDOCKER docking program. Finally, the selected compounds have high interaction energy between a ligand and a receptor. Through these approaches, 23 potential inhibitors for Chk2 are retrieved for further study.

Contribution of organizational strategy to verbal learning and memory in adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

PubMed

Roth, Robert M; Wishart, Heather A; Flashman, Laura A; Riordan, Henry J; Huey, Leighton; Saykin, Andrew J

2004-01-01

Statistical mediation modeling was used to test the hypothesis that poor use of a semantic organizational strategy contributes to verbal learning and memory deficits in adults with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). Comparison of 28 adults with ADHD and 34 healthy controls revealed lower performance by the ADHD group on tests of verbal learning and memory, sustained attention, and use of semantic organization during encoding. Mediation modeling indicated that state anxiety, but not semantic organization, significantly contributed to the prediction of both learning and delayed recall in the ADHD group. The pattern of findings suggests that decreased verbal learning and memory in adult ADHD is due in part to situational anxiety and not to poor use of organizational strategies during encoding. ((c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved)

Cost-effectiveness of anatomical and functional test strategies for stable chest pain: public health perspective from a middle-income country.

PubMed

Bertoldi, Eduardo G; Stella, Steffen F; Rohde, Luis Eduardo P; Polanczyk, Carisi A

2017-05-04

The aim of this research is to evaluate the relative cost-effectiveness of functional and anatomical strategies for diagnosing stable coronary artery disease (CAD), using exercise (Ex)-ECG, stress echocardiogram (ECHO), single-photon emission CT (SPECT), coronary CT angiography (CTA) or stress cardiacmagnetic resonance (C-MRI). Decision-analytical model, comparing strategies of sequential tests for evaluating patients with possible stable angina in low, intermediate and high pretest probability of CAD, from the perspective of a developing nation's public healthcare system. Hypothetical cohort of patients with pretest probability of CAD between 20% and 70%. The primary outcome is cost per correct diagnosis of CAD. Proportion of false-positive or false-negative tests and number of unnecessary tests performed were also evaluated. Strategies using Ex-ECG as initial test were the least costly alternatives but generated more frequent false-positive initial tests and false-negative final diagnosis. Strategies based on CTA or ECHO as initial test were the most attractive and resulted in similar cost-effectiveness ratios (I$ 286 and I$ 305 per correct diagnosis, respectively). A strategy based on C-MRI was highly effective for diagnosing stable CAD, but its high cost resulted in unfavourable incremental cost-effectiveness (ICER) in moderate-risk and high-risk scenarios. Non-invasive strategies based on SPECT have been dominated. An anatomical diagnostic strategy based on CTA is a cost-effective option for CAD diagnosis. Functional strategies performed equally well when based on ECHO. C-MRI yielded acceptable ICER only at low pretest probability, and SPECT was not cost-effective in our analysis. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Evaluation of test-strategies for estimating probability of low prevalence of paratuberculosis in Danish dairy herds.

PubMed

Sergeant, E S G; Nielsen, S S; Toft, N

2008-06-15

Paratuberculosis is a chronic infection affecting cattle and other ruminants. In the dairy industry, losses due to paratuberculosis can be substantial in infected herds and several countries have implemented national programmes based on herd-classification to manage the disease. The aim of this study was to develop a method to estimate the probability of low within-herd prevalence of paratuberculosis for Danish dairy herds. A stochastic simulation model was developed using the R programming environment. Features of this model included: use of age-specific estimates of test-sensitivity and specificity; use of a distribution of observed values (rather than a fixed, low value) for design prevalence; and estimates of the probability of low prevalence (PrLow) based on a specific number of test-positive animals, rather than for a result less than or equal to a specified cut-point number of reactors. Using this model, five herd-testing strategies were evaluated: (1) milk-ELISA on all lactating cows; (2) milk-ELISA on lactating cows4 years old; (4) faecal culture on all lactating cows; and (5) milk-ELISA plus faecal culture in series on all lactating cows. The five testing strategies were evaluated using observed milk-ELISA results from 19 Danish dairy herds as well as for simulated results from the same herds assuming that they were uninfected. Whole-herd milk-ELISA was the preferred strategy, and considered the most cost-effective strategy of the five alternatives. The five strategies were all efficient in detecting infection, i.e. estimating a low PrLow in infected herds, however, PrLow estimates for milk-ELISA on age-cohorts were too low in simulated uninfected herds and the strategies involving faecal culture were too expensive to be of practical interest. For simulated uninfected herds, whole-herd milk-ELISA resulted in median PrLow values>0.9 for most herds, depending on herd size and age-structure. None of the strategies provided enough power to establish a high PrLow in smaller herds, or herds with a younger age-structure. Despite this, it appears as if the method is a useful approach for herd-classification for most herds in the Danish dairy industry.

Comparing methods to combine functional loss and mortality in clinical trials for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

PubMed Central

van Eijk, Ruben PA; Eijkemans, Marinus JC; Rizopoulos, Dimitris

2018-01-01

Objective Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) clinical trials based on single end points only partially capture the full treatment effect when both function and mortality are affected, and may falsely dismiss efficacious drugs as futile. We aimed to investigate the statistical properties of several strategies for the simultaneous analysis of function and mortality in ALS clinical trials. Methods Based on the Pooled Resource Open-Access ALS Clinical Trials (PRO-ACT) database, we simulated longitudinal patterns of functional decline, defined by the revised amyotrophic lateral sclerosis functional rating scale (ALSFRS-R) and conditional survival time. Different treatment scenarios with varying effect sizes were simulated with follow-up ranging from 12 to 18 months. We considered the following analytical strategies: 1) Cox model; 2) linear mixed effects (LME) model; 3) omnibus test based on Cox and LME models; 4) composite time-to-6-point decrease or death; 5) combined assessment of function and survival (CAFS); and 6) test based on joint modeling framework. For each analytical strategy, we calculated the empirical power and sample size. Results Both Cox and LME models have increased false-negative rates when treatment exclusively affects either function or survival. The joint model has superior power compared to other strategies. The composite end point increases false-negative rates among all treatment scenarios. To detect a 15% reduction in ALSFRS-R decline and 34% decline in hazard with 80% power after 18 months, the Cox model requires 524 patients, the LME model 794 patients, the omnibus test 526 patients, the composite end point 1,274 patients, the CAFS 576 patients and the joint model 464 patients. Conclusion Joint models have superior statistical power to analyze simultaneous effects on survival and function and may circumvent pitfalls encountered by other end points. Optimizing trial end points is essential, as selecting suboptimal outcomes may disguise important treatment clues. PMID:29593436

How motivation affects academic performance: a structural equation modelling analysis.

PubMed

Kusurkar, R A; Ten Cate, Th J; Vos, C M P; Westers, P; Croiset, G

2013-03-01

Few studies in medical education have studied effect of quality of motivation on performance. Self-Determination Theory based on quality of motivation differentiates between Autonomous Motivation (AM) that originates within an individual and Controlled Motivation (CM) that originates from external sources. To determine whether Relative Autonomous Motivation (RAM, a measure of the balance between AM and CM) affects academic performance through good study strategy and higher study effort and compare this model between subgroups: males and females; students selected via two different systems namely qualitative and weighted lottery selection. Data on motivation, study strategy and effort was collected from 383 medical students of VU University Medical Center Amsterdam and their academic performance results were obtained from the student administration. Structural Equation Modelling analysis technique was used to test a hypothesized model in which high RAM would positively affect Good Study Strategy (GSS) and study effort, which in turn would positively affect academic performance in the form of grade point averages. This model fit well with the data, Chi square = 1.095, df = 3, p = 0.778, RMSEA model fit = 0.000. This model also fitted well for all tested subgroups of students. Differences were found in the strength of relationships between the variables for the different subgroups as expected. In conclusion, RAM positively correlated with academic performance through deep strategy towards study and higher study effort. This model seems valid in medical education in subgroups such as males, females, students selected by qualitative and weighted lottery selection.

Closed-Loop Acoustic Control of Reverberant Room for Satellite Environmental Testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Janssens, Karl; Bianciardi, Fabio; Sabbatini, Danilo; Debille, Jan; Carrella, Alex

2012-07-01

The full satellite acoustic test is an important milestone in a satellite launch survivability verification campaign. This test is required to verify the satellite’s mechanical design against the high-level acoustic loads induced by the launch vehicle during the atmospheric flight. During the test, the satellite is subjected to a broadband diffuse acoustic field, reproducing the pressure levels observed during launch. The excitation is in most cases provided by a combination of horns for the low frequencies and noise generators for the higher frequencies. Acoustic control tests are commonly performed in reverberant rooms, controlling the sound pressure levels in third octave bands over the specified target spectrum. This paper discusses an automatic feedback control system for acoustic control of large reverberation rooms for satellite environmental testing. The acoustic control system consists of parallel third octave PI (Proportional Integral) feedback controllers that take the reverberation characteristics of the room into consideration. The drive output of the control system is shaped at every control step based on the comparison of the average third octave noise spectrum, measured from a number of microphones in the test room, with the target spectrum. Cross-over filters split the output drive into band- limited signals to feed each of the horns. The control system is realized in several steps. In the first phase, a dynamic process model is developed, including the non-linear characteristics of the horns and the reverberant properties of the room. The model is identified from dynamic experiments using system identification techniques. In the next phase, an adequate control strategy is designed which is capable of reaching the target spectrum in the required time period without overshoots. This control strategy is obtained from model-in-the-loop (MIL) simulations, evaluating the performance of various potential strategies. Finally, the proposed strategy is implemented in real-time and its control performance tested and validated.

Developing an active implementation model for a chronic disease management program.

PubMed

Smidth, Margrethe; Christensen, Morten Bondo; Olesen, Frede; Vedsted, Peter

2013-04-01

Introduction and diffusion of new disease management programs in healthcare is usually slow, but active theory-driven implementation seems to outperform other implementation strategies. However, we have only scarce evidence on the feasibility and real effect of such strategies in complex primary care settings where municipalities, general practitioners and hospitals should work together. The Central Denmark Region recently implemented a disease management program for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) which presented an opportunity to test an active implementation model against the usual implementation model. The aim of the present paper is to describe the development of an active implementation model using the Medical Research Council's model for complex interventions and the Chronic Care Model. We used the Medical Research Council's five-stage model for developing complex interventions to design an implementation model for a disease management program for COPD. First, literature on implementing change in general practice was scrutinised and empirical knowledge was assessed for suitability. In phase I, the intervention was developed; and in phases II and III, it was tested in a block- and cluster-randomised study. In phase IV, we evaluated the feasibility for others to use our active implementation model. The Chronic Care Model was identified as a model for designing efficient implementation elements. These elements were combined into a multifaceted intervention, and a timeline for the trial in a randomised study was decided upon in accordance with the five stages in the Medical Research Council's model; this was captured in a PaTPlot, which allowed us to focus on the structure and the timing of the intervention. The implementation strategies identified as efficient were use of the Breakthrough Series, academic detailing, provision of patient material and meetings between providers. The active implementation model was tested in a randomised trial (results reported elsewhere). The combination of the theoretical model for complex interventions and the Chronic Care Model and the chosen specific implementation strategies proved feasible for a practice-based active implementation model for a chronic-disease-management-program for COPD. Using the Medical Research Council's model added transparency to the design phase which further facilitated the process of implementing the program. http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/(NCT01228708).

Integrated Decision Strategies for Skin Sensitization Hazard

PubMed Central

Strickland, Judy; Zang, Qingda; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Paris, Michael; Lehmann, David M.; Choksi, Neepa; Matheson, Joanna; Jacobs, Abigail; Lowit, Anna; Allen, David; Casey, Warren

2016-01-01

One of the top priorities of ICCVAM is the identification and evaluation of non-animal alternatives for skin sensitization testing. Although skin sensitization is a complex process, the key biological events of the process have been well characterized in an adverse outcome pathway (AOP) proposed by OECD. Accordingly, ICCVAM is working to develop integrated decision strategies based on the AOP using in vitro, in chemico, and in silico information. Data were compiled for 120 substances tested in the murine local lymph node assay (LLNA), direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA), human cell line activation test (h-CLAT), and KeratinoSens assay. Data for six physicochemical properties that may affect skin penetration were also collected, and skin sensitization read-across predictions were performed using OECD QSAR Toolbox. All data were combined into a variety of potential integrated decision strategies to predict LLNA outcomes using a training set of 94 substances and an external test set of 26 substances. Fifty-four models were built using multiple combinations of machine learning approaches and predictor variables. The seven models with the highest accuracy (89–96% for the test set and 96–99% for the training set) for predicting LLNA outcomes used a support vector machine (SVM) approach with different combinations of predictor variables. The performance statistics of the SVM models were higher than any of the non-animal tests alone and higher than simple test battery approaches using these methods. These data suggest that computational approaches are promising tools to effectively integrate data sources to identify potential skin sensitizers without animal testing. PMID:26851134

Cell-Free DNA-Based Non-invasive Prenatal Screening for Common Aneuploidies in a Canadian Province: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

PubMed

Nshimyumukiza, Léon; Beaumont, Jean-Alexandre; Duplantie, Julie; Langlois, Sylvie; Little, Julian; Audibert, François; McCabe, Christopher; Gekas, Jean; Giguère, Yves; Gagné, Christian; Reinharz, Daniel; Rousseau, François

2018-01-01

Yearly, 450 000 pregnant Canadians are eligible for voluntary prenatal screening for trisomy 21. Different screening strategies select approximately 4% of women for invasive fetal chromosome testing. Non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) using maternal blood cell-free DNA could reduce those invasive procedures but is expensive. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of NIPT strategies compared with conventional strategies. This study used a decision analytic model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 13 prenatal screening strategies for fetal aneuploidies: six frequently used strategies, universal NIPT, and six strategies incorporating NIPT as a second-tier test. The study considered a virtual cohort of pregnant women of similar size and age as women in Quebec. Model data were obtained from published sources and government databases. The study predicted the number of chromosomal anomalies detected (trisomies 21, 13, and 18), invasive procedures and euploid fetal losses, direct costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Of the 13 strategies compared, eight identified fewer cases at a higher cost than at least one of the remaining five strategies. Integrated serum screening with conditional NIPT had the lowest cost, and the cost per case detected was $63 139, with a 90% reduction of invasive procedures. The number of cases identified was improved with four other screening strategies, but with increasing of incremental costs per case (from $61 623 to $1 553 615). Results remained robust, except when NIPT costs and risk cut-offs varied. NIPT as a second-tier test for high-risk women is likely to be cost-effective as compared with screening algorithms not involving NIPT. Copyright © 2018 The Society of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists of Canada/La Société des obstétriciens et gynécologues du Canada. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The New Italian Seismic Hazard Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Marzocchi, W.; Meletti, C.; Albarello, D.; D'Amico, V.; Luzi, L.; Martinelli, F.; Pace, B.; Pignone, M.; Rovida, A.; Visini, F.

2017-12-01

In 2015 the Seismic Hazard Center (Centro Pericolosità Sismica - CPS) of the National Institute of Geophysics and Volcanology was commissioned of coordinating the national scientific community with the aim to elaborate a new reference seismic hazard model, mainly finalized to the update of seismic code. The CPS designed a roadmap for releasing within three years a significantly renewed PSHA model, with regard both to the updated input elements and to the strategies to be followed. The main requirements of the model were discussed in meetings with the experts on earthquake engineering that then will participate to the revision of the building code. The activities were organized in 6 tasks: program coordination, input data, seismicity models, ground motion predictive equations (GMPEs), computation and rendering, testing. The input data task has been selecting the most updated information about seismicity (historical and instrumental), seismogenic faults, and deformation (both from seismicity and geodetic data). The seismicity models have been elaborating in terms of classic source areas, fault sources and gridded seismicity based on different approaches. The GMPEs task has selected the most recent models accounting for their tectonic suitability and forecasting performance. The testing phase has been planned to design statistical procedures to test with the available data the whole seismic hazard models, and single components such as the seismicity models and the GMPEs. In this talk we show some preliminary results, summarize the overall strategy for building the new Italian PSHA model, and discuss in detail important novelties that we put forward. Specifically, we adopt a new formal probabilistic framework to interpret the outcomes of the model and to test it meaningfully; this requires a proper definition and characterization of both aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty that we accomplish through an ensemble modeling strategy. We use a weighting scheme of the different components of the PSHA model that has been built through three different independent steps: a formal experts' elicitation, the outcomes of the testing phase, and the correlation between the outcomes. Finally, we explore through different techniques the influence on seismic hazard of the declustering procedure.

Meta-Analysis and Cost Comparison of Empirical versus Pre-Emptive Antifungal Strategies in Hematologic Malignancy Patients with High-Risk Febrile Neutropenia.

PubMed

Fung, Monica; Kim, Jane; Marty, Francisco M; Schwarzinger, Michaël; Koo, Sophia

2015-01-01

Invasive fungal disease (IFD) causes significant morbidity and mortality in hematologic malignancy patients with high-risk febrile neutropenia (FN). These patients therefore often receive empirical antifungal therapy. Diagnostic test-guided pre-emptive antifungal therapy has been evaluated as an alternative treatment strategy in these patients. We conducted an electronic search for literature comparing empirical versus pre-emptive antifungal strategies in FN among adult hematologic malignancy patients. We systematically reviewed 9 studies, including randomized-controlled trials, cohort studies, and feasibility studies. Random and fixed-effect models were used to generate pooled relative risk estimates of IFD detection, IFD-related mortality, overall mortality, and rates and duration of antifungal therapy. Heterogeneity was measured via Cochran's Q test, I2 statistic, and between study τ2. Incorporating these parameters and direct costs of drugs and diagnostic testing, we constructed a comparative costing model for the two strategies. We conducted probabilistic sensitivity analysis on pooled estimates and one-way sensitivity analyses on other key parameters with uncertain estimates. Nine published studies met inclusion criteria. Compared to empirical antifungal therapy, pre-emptive strategies were associated with significantly lower antifungal exposure (RR 0.48, 95% CI 0.27-0.85) and duration without an increase in IFD-related mortality (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.36-1.87) or overall mortality (RR 0.95, 95% CI 0.46-1.99). The pre-emptive strategy cost $324 less (95% credible interval -$291.88 to $418.65 pre-emptive compared to empirical) than the empirical approach per FN episode. However, the cost difference was influenced by relatively small changes in costs of antifungal therapy and diagnostic testing. Compared to empirical antifungal therapy, pre-emptive antifungal therapy in patients with high-risk FN may decrease antifungal use without increasing mortality. We demonstrate a state of economic equipoise between empirical and diagnostic-directed pre-emptive antifungal treatment strategies, influenced by small changes in cost of antifungal therapy and diagnostic testing, in the current literature. This work emphasizes the need for optimization of existing fungal diagnostic strategies, development of more efficient diagnostic strategies, and less toxic and more cost-effective antifungals.

INTEGRATING MESO-AND MICRO-SIMULATION MODELS TO EVALUATE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES, YEAR 2

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-07-04

In the Year 1 Report, the Arizona State University (ASU) Project Team described the development of a hierarchical multi-resolution simulation platform to test proactive traffic management strategies. The scope was to integrate an easily available mic...

The potential impact and cost of focusing HIV prevention on young women and men: A modeling analysis in western Kenya.

PubMed

Alsallaq, Ramzi A; Buttolph, Jasmine; Cleland, Charles M; Hallett, Timothy; Inwani, Irene; Agot, Kawango; Kurth, Ann E

2017-01-01

We compared the impact and costs of HIV prevention strategies focusing on youth (15-24 year-old persons) versus on adults (15+ year-old persons), in a high-HIV burden context of a large generalized epidemic. Compartmental age-structured mathematical model of HIV transmission in Nyanza, Kenya. The interventions focused on youth were high coverage HIV testing (80% of youth), treatment at diagnosis (TasP, i.e., immediate start of antiretroviral therapy [ART]) and 10% increased condom usage for HIV-positive diagnosed youth, male circumcision for HIV-negative young men, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for high-risk HIV-negative females (ages 20-24 years), and cash transfer for in-school HIV-negative girls (ages 15-19 years). Permutations of these were compared to adult-focused HIV testing coverage with condoms and TasP. The youth-focused strategy with ART treatment at diagnosis and condom use without adding interventions for HIV-negative youth performed better than the adult-focused strategy with adult testing reaching 50-60% coverage and TasP/condoms. Over the long term, the youth-focused strategy approached the performance of 70% adult testing and TasP/condoms. When high coverage male circumcision also is added to the youth-focused strategy, the combined intervention outperformed the adult-focused strategy with 70% testing, for at least 35 years by averting 94,000 more infections, averting 5.0 million more disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and saving US$46.0 million over this period. The addition of prevention interventions beyond circumcision to the youth-focused strategy would be more beneficial if HIV care costs are high, or when program delivery costs are relatively high for programs encompassing HIV testing coverage exceeding 70%, TasP and condoms to HIV-infected adults compared to combination prevention programs among youth. For at least the next three decades, focusing in high burden settings on high coverage HIV testing, ART treatment upon diagnosis, condoms and male circumcision among youth may outperform adult-focused ART treatment upon diagnosis programs, unless the adult testing coverage in these programs reaches very high levels (>70% of all adults reached) at similar program costs. Our results indicate the potential importance of age-targeting for HIV prevention in the current era of 'test and start, ending AIDS' goals to ameliorate the HIV epidemic globally.

NASA GRC and MSFC Space-Plasma Arc Testing Procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferguson, Dale C.; Vayner, Boris V.; Galofaro, Joel T.; Hillard, G. Barry; Vaughn, Jason; Schneider, Todd

2007-01-01

Tests of arcing and current collection in simulated space plasma conditions have been performed at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in Cleveland, Ohio, for over 30 years and at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama, for almost as long. During this period, proper test conditions for accurate and meaningful space simulation have been worked out, comparisons with actual space performance in spaceflight tests and with real operational satellites have been made, and NASA has achieved our own internal standards for test protocols. It is the purpose of this paper to communicate the test conditions, test procedures, and types of analysis used at NASA GRC and MSFC to the space environmental testing community at large, to help with international space-plasma arcing-testing standardization. Discussed herein are neutral gas conditions, plasma densities and uniformity, vacuum chamber sizes, sample sizes and Debye lengths, biasing samples versus self-generated voltages, floating samples versus grounded samples, test electrical conditions, arc detection, preventing sustained discharges during testing, real samples versus idealized samples, validity of LEO tests for GEO samples, extracting arc threshold information from arc rate versus voltage tests, snapover, current collection, and glows at positive sample bias, Kapton pyrolysis, thresholds for trigger arcs, sustained arcs, dielectric breakdown and Paschen discharge, tether arcing and testing in very dense plasmas (i.e. thruster plumes), arc mitigation strategies, charging mitigation strategies, models, and analysis of test results. Finally, the necessity of testing will be emphasized, not to the exclusion of modeling, but as part of a complete strategy for determining when and if arcs will occur, and preventing them from occurring in space.

Trading strategy based on dynamic mode decomposition: Tested in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cui, Ling-xiao; Long, Wen

2016-11-01

Dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) is an effective method to capture the intrinsic dynamical modes of complex system. In this work, we adopt DMD method to discover the evolutionary patterns in stock market and apply it to Chinese A-share stock market. We design two strategies based on DMD algorithm. The strategy which considers only timing problem can make reliable profits in a choppy market with no prominent trend while fails to beat the benchmark moving-average strategy in bull market. After considering the spatial information from spatial-temporal coherent structure of DMD modes, we improved the trading strategy remarkably. Then the DMD strategies profitability is quantitatively evaluated by performing SPA test to correct the data-snooping effect. The results further prove that DMD algorithm can model the market patterns well in sideways market.

Coping with perceived weight discrimination: testing a theoretical model for examining the relationship between perceived weight discrimination and depressive symptoms in a representative sample of individuals with obesity.

PubMed

Spahlholz, J; Pabst, A; Riedel-Heller, S G; Luck-Sikorski, C

2016-12-01

The association between obesity and perceived weight discrimination has been investigated in several studies. Although there is evidence that perceived weight discrimination is associated with negative outcomes on psychological well-being, there is a lack of research examining possible buffering effects of coping strategies in dealing with experiences of weight discrimination. The present study aims to fill that gap. We examined the relationship between perceived weight discrimination and depressive symptoms and tested whether problem-solving strategies and/or avoidant coping strategies mediated this effect. Using structural equation modeling, we analyzed representative cross-sectional data of n=484 German-speaking individuals with obesity (BMI⩾30 kg m -2 ), aged 18 years and older. Results revealed a direct effect of perceived weight discrimination on depressive symptoms. Further, the data supported a mediational linkage for avoidant coping strategies, not for problem-solving strategies. Higher scores of perceived weight discrimination experiences were associated with both coping strategies, but only avoidant coping strategies were positively linked to more symptoms of depression. Perceived weight discrimination was associated with increased depressive symptoms both directly and indirectly through situational coping strategies. Avoidant coping has the potential to exacerbate depressive symptoms, whereas problem-solving strategies were ineffective in dealing with experiences of weight discrimination. We emphasize the importance of coping strategies in dealing with experiences of weight discrimination and the need to distinguish between using a strategy and benefiting from it without detriment.

A Dynamic Model for the Evaluation of Aircraft Engine Icing Detection and Control-Based Mitigation Strategies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Simon, Donald L.; Rinehart, Aidan W.; Jones, Scott M.

2017-01-01

Aircraft flying in regions of high ice crystal concentrations are susceptible to the buildup of ice within the compression system of their gas turbine engines. This ice buildup can restrict engine airflow and cause an uncommanded loss of thrust, also known as engine rollback, which poses a potential safety hazard. The aviation community is conducting research to understand this phenomena, and to identify avoidance and mitigation strategies to address the concern. To support this research, a dynamic turbofan engine model has been created to enable the development and evaluation of engine icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies. This model captures the dynamic engine response due to high ice water ingestion and the buildup of ice blockage in the engines low pressure compressor. It includes a fuel control system allowing engine closed-loop control effects during engine icing events to be emulated. The model also includes bleed air valve and horsepower extraction actuators that, when modulated, change overall engine operating performance. This system-level model has been developed and compared against test data acquired from an aircraft turbofan engine undergoing engine icing studies in an altitude test facility and also against outputs from the manufacturers customer deck. This paper will describe the model and show results of its dynamic response under open-loop and closed-loop control operating scenarios in the presence of ice blockage buildup compared against engine test cell data. Planned follow-on use of the model for the development and evaluation of icing detection and control-based mitigation strategies will also be discussed. The intent is to combine the model and control mitigation logic with an engine icing risk calculation tool capable of predicting the risk of engine icing based on current operating conditions. Upon detection of an operating region of risk for engine icing events, the control mitigation logic will seek to change the engines operating point to a region of lower risk through the modulation of available control actuators while maintaining the desired engine thrust output. Follow-on work will assess the feasibility and effectiveness of such control-based mitigation strategies.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of EGFR mutation testing in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with gefitinib or carboplatin-paclitaxel.

PubMed

Arrieta, Oscar; Anaya, Pablo; Morales-Oyarvide, Vicente; Ramírez-Tirado, Laura Alejandra; Polanco, Ana C

2016-09-01

Assess the cost-effectiveness of an EGFR-mutation testing strategy for advanced NSCLC in first-line therapy with either gefitinib or carboplatin-paclitaxel in Mexican institutions. Cost-effectiveness analysis using a discrete event simulation (DES) model to simulate two therapeutic strategies in patients with advanced NSCLC. Strategy one included patients tested for EGFR-mutation and therapy given accordingly. Strategy two included chemotherapy for all patients without testing. All results are presented in 2014 US dollars. The analysis was made with data from the Mexican frequency of EGFR-mutation. A univariate sensitivity analysis was conducted on EGFR prevalence. Progression-free survival (PFS) transition probabilities were estimated on data from the IPASS and simulated with a Weibull distribution, run with parallel trials to calculate a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. PFS of patients in the testing strategy was 6.76 months (95 % CI 6.10-7.44) vs 5.85 months (95 % CI 5.43-6.29) in the non-testing group. The one-way sensitivity analysis showed that PFS has a direct relationship with EGFR-mutation prevalence, while the ICER and testing cost have an inverse relationship with EGFR-mutation prevalence. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that all iterations had incremental costs and incremental PFS for strategy 1 in comparison with strategy 2. There is a direct relationship between the ICER and the cost of EGFR testing, with an inverse relationship with the prevalence of EGFR-mutation. When prevalence is >10 % ICER remains constant. This study could impact Mexican and Latin American health policies regarding mutation detection testing and treatment for advanced NSCLC.

Gaia challenging performances verification: combination of spacecraft models and test results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ecale, Eric; Faye, Frédéric; Chassat, François

2016-08-01

To achieve the ambitious scientific objectives of the Gaia mission, extremely stringent performance requirements have been given to the spacecraft contractor (Airbus Defence and Space). For a set of those key-performance requirements (e.g. end-of-mission parallax, maximum detectable magnitude, maximum sky density or attitude control system stability), this paper describes how they are engineered during the whole spacecraft development process, with a focus on the end-to-end performance verification. As far as possible, performances are usually verified by end-to-end tests onground (i.e. before launch). However, the challenging Gaia requirements are not verifiable by such a strategy, principally because no test facility exists to reproduce the expected flight conditions. The Gaia performance verification strategy is therefore based on a mix between analyses (based on spacecraft models) and tests (used to directly feed the models or to correlate them). Emphasis is placed on how to maximize the test contribution to performance verification while keeping the test feasible within an affordable effort. In particular, the paper highlights the contribution of the Gaia Payload Module Thermal Vacuum test to the performance verification before launch. Eventually, an overview of the in-flight payload calibration and in-flight performance verification is provided.

A Revised Simplex Method for Test Construction Problems. Research Report 90-5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Adema, Jos J.

Linear programming models with 0-1 variables are useful for the construction of tests from an item bank. Most solution strategies for these models start with solving the relaxed 0-1 linear programming model, allowing the 0-1 variables to take on values between 0 and 1. Then, a 0-1 solution is found by just rounding, optimal rounding, or a…

Cost-effectiveness simulation and analysis of colorectal cancer screening in Hong Kong Chinese population: comparison amongst colonoscopy, guaiac and immunologic fecal occult blood testing.

PubMed

Wong, Carlos K H; Lam, Cindy L K; Wan, Y F; Fong, Daniel Y T

2015-10-15

The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of CRC screening strategies from the healthcare service provider perspective based on Chinese population. A Markov model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of recommended screening strategies including annual/biennial guaiac fecal occult blood testing (G-FOBT), annual/biennial immunologic FOBT (I-FOBT), and colonoscopy every 10 years in Chinese aged 50 year over a 25-year period. External validity of model was tested against data retrieved from published randomized controlled trials of G-FOBT. Recourse use data collected from Chinese subjects among staging of colorectal neoplasm were combined with published unit cost data ($USD in 2009 price values) to estimate a stage-specific cost per patient. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were quantified based on the stage duration and SF-6D preference-based value of each stage. The cost-effectiveness outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) represented by costs per life-years (LY) and costs per QALYs gained. In base-case scenario, the non-dominated strategies were annual and biennial I-FOBT. Compared with no screening, the ICER presented $20,542/LYs and $3155/QALYs gained for annual I-FOBT, and $19,838/LYs gained and $2976/QALYs gained for biennial I-FOBT. The optimal screening strategy was annual I-FOBT that attained the highest ICER at the threshold of $50,000 per LYs or QALYs gained. The Markov model informed the health policymakers that I-FOBT every year may be the most effective and cost-effective CRC screening strategy among recommended screening strategies, depending on the willingness-to-pay of mass screening for Chinese population. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT02038283.

Diagnostic test accuracy and prevalence inferences based on joint and sequential testing with finite population sampling.

PubMed

Su, Chun-Lung; Gardner, Ian A; Johnson, Wesley O

2004-07-30

The two-test two-population model, originally formulated by Hui and Walter, for estimation of test accuracy and prevalence estimation assumes conditionally independent tests, constant accuracy across populations and binomial sampling. The binomial assumption is incorrect if all individuals in a population e.g. child-care centre, village in Africa, or a cattle herd are sampled or if the sample size is large relative to population size. In this paper, we develop statistical methods for evaluating diagnostic test accuracy and prevalence estimation based on finite sample data in the absence of a gold standard. Moreover, two tests are often applied simultaneously for the purpose of obtaining a 'joint' testing strategy that has either higher overall sensitivity or specificity than either of the two tests considered singly. Sequential versions of such strategies are often applied in order to reduce the cost of testing. We thus discuss joint (simultaneous and sequential) testing strategies and inference for them. Using the developed methods, we analyse two real and one simulated data sets, and we compare 'hypergeometric' and 'binomial-based' inferences. Our findings indicate that the posterior standard deviations for prevalence (but not sensitivity and specificity) based on finite population sampling tend to be smaller than their counterparts for infinite population sampling. Finally, we make recommendations about how small the sample size should be relative to the population size to warrant use of the binomial model for prevalence estimation. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Integration of ground and satellite data to model Mediterranean forest processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiesi, M.; Fibbi, L.; Genesio, L.; Gioli, B.; Magno, R.; Maselli, F.; Moriondo, M.; Vaccari, F. P.

2011-06-01

The current work presents the testing of a modeling strategy that has been recently developed to simulate the gross and net carbon fluxes of Mediterranean forest ecosystems. The strategy is based on the use of a NDVI-driven parametric model, C-Fix, and of a biogeochemical model, BIOME-BGC, whose outputs are combined to simulate the behavior of forest ecosystems at different development stages. The performances of the modeling strategy are evaluated in three Italian study sites (San Rossore, Lecceto and Pianosa), where carbon fluxes are being measured through the eddy correlation technique. These sites are characterized by variable Mediterranean climates and are covered by different types of forest vegetation (pine wood, Holm oak forest and Macchia, respectively). The results of the tests indicate that the modeling strategy is generally capable of reproducing monthly GPP and NEE patterns in all three study sites. The highest accuracy is obtained in the most mature, homogenous pine wood of San Rossore, while the worst results are found in the Lecceto forest, where there are the most heterogeneous terrain, soil and vegetation conditions. The main error sources are identified in the inaccurate definition of the model inputs, particularly those regulating the site water budgets, which exert a strong control on forest productivity during the Mediterranean summer dry season. In general, the incorporation of NDVI-derived fAPAR estimates corrects for most of these errors and renders the forest flux simulations more stable and accurate.

Screening strategies for atrial fibrillation: a systematic review and cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Welton, Nicky J; McAleenan, Alexandra; Thom, Howard Hz; Davies, Philippa; Hollingworth, Will; Higgins, Julian Pt; Okoli, George; Sterne, Jonathan Ac; Feder, Gene; Eaton, Diane; Hingorani, Aroon; Fawsitt, Christopher; Lobban, Trudie; Bryden, Peter; Richards, Alison; Sofat, Reecha

2017-05-01

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a common cardiac arrhythmia that increases the risk of thromboembolic events. Anticoagulation therapy to prevent AF-related stroke has been shown to be cost-effective. A national screening programme for AF may prevent AF-related events, but would involve a substantial investment of NHS resources. To conduct a systematic review of the diagnostic test accuracy (DTA) of screening tests for AF, update a systematic review of comparative studies evaluating screening strategies for AF, develop an economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of different screening strategies and review observational studies of AF screening to provide inputs to the model. Systematic review, meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis. Primary care. Adults. Screening strategies, defined by screening test, age at initial and final screens, screening interval and format of screening {systematic opportunistic screening [individuals offered screening if they consult with their general practitioner (GP)] or systematic population screening (when all eligible individuals are invited to screening)}. Sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratios; the odds ratio of detecting new AF cases compared with no screening; and the mean incremental net benefit compared with no screening. Two reviewers screened the search results, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias. A DTA meta-analysis was perfomed, and a decision tree and Markov model was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the screening strategies. Diagnostic test accuracy depended on the screening test and how it was interpreted. In general, the screening tests identified in our review had high sensitivity (> 0.9). Systematic population and systematic opportunistic screening strategies were found to be similarly effective, with an estimated 170 individuals needed to be screened to detect one additional AF case compared with no screening. Systematic opportunistic screening was more likely to be cost-effective than systematic population screening, as long as the uptake of opportunistic screening observed in randomised controlled trials translates to practice. Modified blood pressure monitors, photoplethysmography or nurse pulse palpation were more likely to be cost-effective than other screening tests. A screening strategy with an initial screening age of 65 years and repeated screens every 5 years until age 80 years was likely to be cost-effective, provided that compliance with treatment does not decline with increasing age. A national screening programme for AF is likely to represent a cost-effective use of resources. Systematic opportunistic screening is more likely to be cost-effective than systematic population screening. Nurse pulse palpation or modified blood pressure monitors would be appropriate screening tests, with confirmation by diagnostic 12-lead electrocardiography interpreted by a trained GP, with referral to a specialist in the case of an unclear diagnosis. Implementation strategies to operationalise uptake of systematic opportunistic screening in primary care should accompany any screening recommendations. Many inputs for the economic model relied on a single trial [the Screening for Atrial Fibrillation in the Elderly (SAFE) study] and DTA results were based on a few studies at high risk of bias/of low applicability. Comparative studies measuring long-term outcomes of screening strategies and DTA studies for new, emerging technologies and to replicate the results for photoplethysmography and GP interpretation of 12-lead electrocardiography in a screening population. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42014013739. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Effect of Roy's Adaptation Model-Guided Education on Coping Strategies of the Veterans with Lower Extremities Amputation: A Double-Blind Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial.

PubMed

Farsi, Zahra; Azarmi, Somayeh

2016-04-01

Any defect in the extremities of the body can affect different life aspects. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of Roy's adaptation model-guided education on coping strategies of the veterans with lower extremities amputation. In a double-blind randomized controlled clinical trial, 60 veterans with lower extremities amputation referring to Kowsar Orthotics and Prosthetics Center of Veterans Clinic in Tehran, Iran were recruited using convenience method and randomly assigned to intervention and control groups in 2013-2014. Lazarus and Folkman coping strategies questionnaire was used to collect the data. After completing the questionnaires in both groups, maladaptive behaviours were determined in the intervention group and an education program based on Roy's adaptation model was implemented. After 2 months, both groups completed the questionnaires again. Data were analyzed using SPSS software. Independent T-test showed that the score of the dimensions of coping strategies did not have a statistically significant difference between the intervention and control groups in the pre-intervention stage (P>0.05). This test showed a statistically significant difference between the two groups in the post-intervention stage in terms of the scores of different dimensions of coping strategies (P>0.05), except in dimensions of social support seeking and positive appraisal (P>0.05). The findings of this research indicated that the Roy's adaptation model-guided education improved the majority of coping strategies in veterans with lower extremities amputation. It is recommended that further interventions based on Roy's adaptation model should be performed to improve the coping of the veterans with lower extremities amputation. IRCT2014081118763N1.

From information processing to decisions: Formalizing and comparing psychologically plausible choice models.

PubMed

Heck, Daniel W; Hilbig, Benjamin E; Moshagen, Morten

2017-08-01

Decision strategies explain how people integrate multiple sources of information to make probabilistic inferences. In the past decade, increasingly sophisticated methods have been developed to determine which strategy explains decision behavior best. We extend these efforts to test psychologically more plausible models (i.e., strategies), including a new, probabilistic version of the take-the-best (TTB) heuristic that implements a rank order of error probabilities based on sequential processing. Within a coherent statistical framework, deterministic and probabilistic versions of TTB and other strategies can directly be compared using model selection by minimum description length or the Bayes factor. In an experiment with inferences from given information, only three of 104 participants were best described by the psychologically plausible, probabilistic version of TTB. Similar as in previous studies, most participants were classified as users of weighted-additive, a strategy that integrates all available information and approximates rational decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Using mobile probes to inform and measure the effectiveness of traffic control strategies on urban networks.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-07-01

Urban traffic congestion is a problem that plagues many cities in the United States. Testing strategies to alleviate this : congestion is especially challenging due to the difficulty of modeling complex urban traffic networks. However, recent work ha...

An overview of the model integration process: From pre-integration assessment to testing

EPA Science Inventory

Integration of models requires linking models which can be developed using different tools, methodologies, and assumptions. We performed a literature review with the aim of improving our understanding of model integration process, and also presenting better strategies for buildin...

Mourning dove hunting regulation strategy based on annual harvest statistics and banding data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Otis, D.L.

2006-01-01

Although managers should strive to base game bird harvest management strategies on mechanistic population models, monitoring programs required to build and continuously update these models may not be in place. Alternatively, If estimates of total harvest and harvest rates are available, then population estimates derived from these harvest data can serve as the basis for making hunting regulation decisions based on population growth rates derived from these estimates. I present a statistically rigorous approach for regulation decision-making using a hypothesis-testing framework and an assumed framework of 3 hunting regulation alternatives. I illustrate and evaluate the technique with historical data on the mid-continent mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) population. I evaluate the statistical properties of the hypothesis-testing framework using the best available data on mourning doves (Zenaida macroura). I use these results to discuss practical implementation of the technique as an interim harvest strategy for mourning doves until reliable mechanistic population models and associated monitoring programs are developed.

Self-regulated learning in a dynamic coaching model for supporting college students with traumatic brain injury: two case reports.

PubMed

Kennedy, Mary R T; Krause, Miriam O

2011-01-01

To describe a program that integrates self-regulated learning theory with supported education for college students with traumatic brain injury using a dynamic coaching model; to demonstrate the feasibility of developing and implementing such a program; and to identify individualized outcomes. Case study comparisons. University setting. Two severely injured students with cognitive impairments. A dynamic coaching model of supported education which incorporated self-regulated learning was provided for students with traumatic brain injury while attending college. Outcomes were both short and long term including decontextualized standardized test scores, self-reported academic challenges, number and specificity of reported strategies, grades on assignments, number of credits completed versus attempted, and changes in academic status and campus life. Students improved on graded assignments after strategy instruction and reported using more strategies by the end of the year. Students completed most of the credits they attempted, were in good academic standing, and made positive academic decisions. Performance on decontextualized tests pre- and postintervention was variable. It is feasible to deliver a hybrid supported education program that is dynamically responsive to individual students' needs and learning styles. Reasons for including both functional and standardized test outcomes are discussed.

An educational strategy for treating chronic, noncancer pain with opioids: a pilot test.

PubMed

Elhwairis, Huda; Reznich, Christopher B

2010-12-01

Chronic pain is common and can be devastating to the patient and challenging to the health care provider. Despite the importance of the topic, pain management curricula are incomplete in health professionals' training. We developed a longitudinal curriculum to teach therapy for chronic noncancer pain over four units and pilot-tested the teaching of one unit (opioids) to internal medicine residents. The educational strategies we used included didactic sessions, write-up of a management plan following a model, case discussions, and role-play group activities. We pilot-tested one unit (opioid therapy) in March 2008. We performed learner evaluations, using a pretest and posttest, a write-up plan following a model, and a learner knowledge questionnaire. Results showed significant improvement in knowledge. Residents found the sessions and educational strategy to be excellent and reported higher confidence levels in managing patients with chronic noncancer pain. This article demonstrates that multiple teaching modalities-including didactic lectures, case discussions, write-up of a management plan following a model, and role-play group activities-are effective methods of teaching internal medicine residents how to use opioids to manage chronic noncancer pain. Copyright © 2010 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Students' perceptions of the flipped classroom model in an engineering course: a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baytiyeh, Hoda; Naja, Mohamad K.

2017-11-01

The flipped classroom model is an innovative educational trend that has been widely adopted in the social sciences but not engineering education. In this model, an active instructional approach shifts the educational strategy from a teacher- to a student-centred approach. The purpose of this study is to compare the learning outcomes of engineering students attending a flipped-model section of the Dynamics of Structures course with students attending a traditional, lecture-based section of the same course taught by the same instructor. The results confirm previous research showing that test scores in the flipped course sections were slightly higher than traditional sections. Although the improvement in test scores was statistically insignificant, student statements indicated that the flipped model promoted a deeper, broader perspective on learning, facilitated problem-solving strategies and improved critical-thinking abilities, self-confidence and teamwork skills, which are needed for a successful engineering career.

'Chain pooling' model selection as developed for the statistical analysis of a rotor burst protection experiment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holms, A. G.

1977-01-01

A statistical decision procedure called chain pooling had been developed for model selection in fitting the results of a two-level fixed-effects full or fractional factorial experiment not having replication. The basic strategy included the use of one nominal level of significance for a preliminary test and a second nominal level of significance for the final test. The subject has been reexamined from the point of view of using as many as three successive statistical model deletion procedures in fitting the results of a single experiment. The investigation consisted of random number studies intended to simulate the results of a proposed aircraft turbine-engine rotor-burst-protection experiment. As a conservative approach, population model coefficients were chosen to represent a saturated 2 to the 4th power experiment with a distribution of parameter values unfavorable to the decision procedures. Three model selection strategies were developed.

KRAS and BRAF mutation analysis in metastatic colorectal cancer: a cost-effectiveness analysis from a Swiss perspective.

PubMed

Blank, Patricia R; Moch, Holger; Szucs, Thomas D; Schwenkglenks, Matthias

2011-10-01

Monoclonal antibodies against the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), such as cetuximab, have led to significant clinical benefits for metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) patients but have also increased treatment costs considerably. Recent evidence associates KRAS and BRAF mutations with resistance to EGFR antibodies. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of predictive testing for KRAS and BRAF mutations, prior to cetuximab treatment of chemorefractory mCRC patients. A life-long Markov simulation model was used to estimate direct medical costs (€) and clinical effectiveness [quality-adjusted life-years (QALY)] of the following strategies: KRAS testing, KRAS testing with subsequent BRAF testing of KRAS wild-types (KRAS/BRAF), cetuximab treatment without testing. Comparison was against no cetuximab treatment (reference strategy). In the testing strategies, cetuximab treatment was initiated if no mutations were detected. Best supportive care was given to all patients. Survival times/utilities were derived from published randomized clinical trials. Costs were assessed from the perspective of the Swiss health system. Average remaining lifetime costs ranged from €3,983 (no cetuximab) to €38,662 (no testing). Cetuximab treatment guided by KRAS/BRAF achieved gains of 0.491 QALYs compared with the reference strategy. The KRAS testing strategy achieved an additional gain of 0.002 QALYs compared with KRAS/BRAF. KRAS/BRAF testing was the most cost-effective approach when compared with the reference strategy (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio: €62,653/QALY). New predictive tests for KRAS and BRAF status are currently being introduced in pathology. Despite substantial costs of predictive testing, it is economically favorable to identify patients with KRAS and BRAF wild-type status. ©2011 AACR

2000-hour cyclic endurance test of a laboratory model multipropellant resistojet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morren, W. Earl; Sovey, James S.

1987-01-01

The technological readiness of a long-life multipropellant resistojet for space station auxiliary propulsion is demonstrated. A laboratory model resistojet made from grain-stabilized platinum served as a test bed to evaluate the design characteristics, fabrication methods, and operating strategies for an engineering model multipropellant resistojet developed under contract by the Rocketdyne Division of Rockwell International and Technion Incorporated. The laboratory model thruster was subjected to a 2000-hr, 2400-thermal-cycle endurance test using carbon dioxide propellant. Maximum thruster temperatures were approximately 1400 C. The post-test analyses of the laboratory model thruster included an investigation of component microstructures. Significant observations from the laboratory model thruster are discussed as they relate to the design of the engineering model thruster.

A 2000-hour cyclic endurance test of a laboratory model multipropellant resistojet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morren, W. Earl; Sovey, James S.

1987-01-01

The technological readiness of a long-life multipropellant resistojet for space station auxiliary propulsion is demonstrated. A laboratory model resistojet made from grain-stabilized platinum served as a test bed to evaluate the design characteristics, fabrication methods, and operating strategies for an engineering model multipropellant resistojet developed under contract by the Rocketdyne Division of Rockwell International and Technion Incorporated. The laboratory model thruster was subjected to a 2000-hr, 2400-thermal-cycle endurance test using carbon dioxide propellant. Maximum thruster temperatures were approximately 1400 C. The post-test analyses of the laboratory model thruster included an investigation of component microstructures. Significant observations from the laboratory model thruster are discussed as they relate to the design of the engineering model thruster.

Long-term costs of introducing HPV-DNA post-treatment surveillance to national cervical cancer screening in Ireland

PubMed Central

Agapova, Maria; Duignan, Andrea; Smith, Alan; O'Neill, Ciaran; Basu, Anirban

2018-01-01

Introduction Co-testing (cytology plus human papillomavirus DNA testing) as part of cervical cancer surveillance in Ireland increases one-time testing costs. Of interest to policy makers was the long-term impact of these costs accompanied by decreases in intensity of recalls for women with no detected abnormalities. Methods A cost-analysis of cytology-only and co-testing was implemented using decision analytic modeling, aggregating testing utilization and costs for each of the two strategies over 12 years. Results Aggregated incremental costs of the co-testing strategy were positive for the first 3 years but became negative thereafter, generating a cost savings of roughly €20 million in favor of the cytology-only strategy over a 12-year period. Results were robust over a range of sensitivity analyses with respect to discount and attrition rates. Discussion This analysis provided valuable information to policy makers contributing to the introduction of co-testing for post-treatment surveillance in Ireland. PMID:26377838

The cost-effectiveness of two strategies for vaccinating US veterans with hepatitis C virus infection against hepatitis A and hepatitis B viruses.

PubMed

Jakiche, Rita; Borrego, Matthew E; Raisch, Dennis W; Gupchup, Gireesh V; Pai, Manjunath A; Jakiche, Antoine

2007-01-01

Although hepatitis A and B vaccinations are recommended for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV), the ideal vaccination strategy has not been determined. Our objective was to model the cost-effectiveness of two strategies for vaccinating patients with HCV infection against hepatitis A (HAV) and hepatitis B (HBV) viruses. The strategies evaluated were: universal vaccination with the combined HAV and HBV vaccine, and selective vaccination based on immunity determined by blood testing. A decision tree model was constructed to compare the cost-effectiveness of the two vaccination strategies from the New Mexico Veterans Affairs Health Care System (NMVAHCS) perspective. A retrospective review of all HCV patients (2517 subjects) at the NMVAHCS was performed to extract prevalence of immunity to HAV and HBV, and prevalence of decompensated liver disease. Literature review was performed to obtain other probabilities for the model. Only direct medical costs were considered; the effectiveness measure was the number of patients immune to both HAV and HBV. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test robustness of the results to changes in input variables. All costs were in 2004 US dollars. The selective strategy was less costly but less effective, with a cost-effectiveness ratio of 105 dollars per patient immune to HAV and HBV. The universal strategy was more effective but more expensive with a cost-effectiveness ratio of 112 dollars per patient immune to HAV and HBV. Compared with the selective strategy, universal strategy was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness (ICE) ratio of 154 dollars per additional patient immune to HAV and HBV. The universal strategy would become more cost-effective if 1) the cost of combined vaccine was reduced to less than 30.75 dollars (9.7% reduction), 2) the cost of HBV vaccine increased to greater than 34.50 dollars (25% increase), 3) the cost of blood tests for immunity increased to more than 25.25 dollars (23% increase), or (4) the prevalence of anti-HBs decreased to less than 24%. The selective vaccination strategy for HAV and HBV in our sample of patients with HCV is more cost-effective. However, the universal strategy is more effective and its ICE is minimal, thus it may be worth the additional cost.

Evaluation of Hydrologic Simulations Developed Using Multi-Model Synthesis and Remotely-Sensed Data within a Portfolio of Calibration Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lafontaine, J.; Hay, L.; Markstrom, S. L.

2016-12-01

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a National Hydrologic Model (NHM) to support coordinated, comprehensive and consistent hydrologic model development, and facilitate the application of hydrologic simulations within the conterminous United States (CONUS). As many stream reaches in the CONUS are either not gaged, or are substantially impacted by water use or flow regulation, ancillary information must be used to determine reasonable parameter estimations for streamflow simulations. Hydrologic models for 1,576 gaged watersheds across the CONUS were developed to test the feasibility of improving streamflow simulations linking physically-based hydrologic models with remotely-sensed data products (i.e. snow water equivalent). Initially, the physically-based models were calibrated to measured streamflow data to provide a baseline for comparison across multiple calibration strategy tests. In addition, not all ancillary datasets are appropriate for application to all parts of the CONUS (e.g. snow water equivalent in the southeastern U.S., where snow is a rarity). As it is not expected that any one data product or model simulation will be sufficient for representing hydrologic behavior across the entire CONUS, a systematic evaluation of which data products improve hydrologic simulations for various regions across the CONUS was performed. The resulting portfolio of calibration strategies can be used to guide selection of an appropriate combination of modeled and measured information for hydrologic model development and calibration. In addition, these calibration strategies have been developed to be flexible so that new data products can be assimilated. This analysis provides a foundation to understand how well models work when sufficient streamflow data are not available and could be used to further inform hydrologic model parameter development for ungaged areas.

Combined Training of One Cognitive and One Metacognitive Strategy Improves Academic Writing Skills.

PubMed

Wischgoll, Anke

2016-01-01

Academic writing is a challenging task. Expert writers apply various writing skills as they anticipate the reader's view of their text while paying attention to structure and content. Research in the high school setting shows that the acquisition of writing skills can be supported by single-strategy training. However, research in higher education is scarce. We tested whether the development of academic writing skills can also be effectively supported by training single strategies or even combined strategies. As metacognition is an important skill for advanced and adult learners, we focused in this study on the benefit of combined cognitive strategies with and without a metacognitive strategy. An experiment including three conditions was conducted (N = 60 German-speaking psychology undergraduates, M = 22.8, SD = 4.4), which lasted for three hours. Each group received a modeling intervention of a basic cognitive strategy on the application of text structure knowledge. Two groups received an additional modeling intervention with either a cognitive strategy treatment on text summarization or a metacognitive strategy treatment on self-monitoring the writing process. One group received no further strategy treatment. Prior knowledge and learning outcomes were measured with a specially developed test on academic writing skills. In addition, all participants wrote an abstract of an empirical article. We found that learners who received the additional self-monitoring strategy intervention benefited significantly more in terms of acquisition of academic writing skills and the quality of their texts than learners who did not receive this intervention. Thus, the results underline the importance of self-monitoring strategies in academic writing. Implications and further research opportunities are discussed.

Next-Generation Image and Sound Processing Strategies: Exploiting the Biological Model

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-05-01

several video game clips which were recorded while observers interactively played the games. The feature vectors may be derived from either: the...phase, we use a different video game clip to test the model. Frames from the test clip are passed in parallel to a bottom-up saliency model, as well as... video games (Figure 6). We found that the TD model alone predicts where humans look about twice as well as does the BU model alone; in addition, a

Career Goals in Young Adults: Personal Resources, Goal Appraisals, Attitudes, and Goal Management Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haratsis, Jessica M.; Hood, Michelle; Creed, Peter A.

2015-01-01

We tested a model based on the dual-process framework that assessed the relationships among personal resources, career goal appraisals, career attitudes, and career goal management, which have not been previously assessed together. The model (tested on a sample of 486 young adults: 74% female, M[subscript]age = 22 years) proposed that personal…

Computerized Adaptive Performance Evaluation.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-02-01

based on classical psychological test theory, with the result that the obtained measurements ani statements of achievement or performance have... psychological aspects of the achievement testing environment. Results , C Applications of Item Characteristic Curve Models and Adaptive Testing Strategies ICC...of immediate knowledge of results and adaptive testing on ability test performance (Research Report 76-4). Minneapolis: Department of Psychology

An assessment technique for computer-socket manufacturing

PubMed Central

Sanders, Joan; Severance, Michael

2015-01-01

An assessment strategy is presented for testing the quality of carving and forming of individual computer aided manufacturing facilities. The strategy is potentially useful to facilities making sockets and companies marketing manufacturing equipment. To execute the strategy, an evaluator fabricates a collection of test models and sockets using the manufacturing suite under evaluation, and then measures their shapes using scanning equipment. Overall socket quality is assessed by comparing socket shapes with electronic file shapes. Then model shapes are compared with electronic file shapes to characterize carving performance. Socket shapes are compared with model shapes to characterize forming performance. The mean radial error (MRE), which is the average difference in radii between the two shapes being compared, provides insight into sizing quality. Inter-quartile range (IQR), the range of radial error for the best matched half of the points on the surfaces being compared, provides insight into shape quality. By determining MRE and IQR for carving and forming separately, the source(s) of socket shape error may be pinpointed. The developed strategy may provide a useful tool to the prosthetics community and industry to help identify problems and limitations in computer aided manufacturing and insight into appropriate modifications to overcome them. PMID:21938663

Risky choice with heuristics: reply to Birnbaum (2008), Johnson, Schulte-Mecklenbeck, and Willemsen (2008), and Rieger and Wang (2008).

PubMed

Brandstätter, Eduard; Gigerenzer, Gerd; Hertwig, Ralph

2008-01-01

E. Brandstätter, G. Gigerenzer, and R. Hertwig (2006) showed that the priority heuristic matches or outperforms modifications of expected utility theory in predicting choice in 4 diverse problem sets. M. H. Birnbaum (2008) argued that sets exist in which the opposite is true. The authors agree--but stress that all choice strategies have regions of good and bad performance. The accuracy of various strategies systematically depends on choice difficulty, which the authors consider a triggering variable underlying strategy selection. Agreeing with E. J. Johnson, M. Schulte-Mecklenbeck, and M. C. Willemsen (2008) that process (not "as-if") models need to be formulated, the authors show how quantitative predictions can be derived and test them. Finally, they demonstrate that many of Birnbaum's and M. O. Rieger and M. Wang's (2008) case studies championing their preferred models involved biased tests in which the priority heuristic predicted data, whereas the parameterized models were fitted to the same data. The authors propose an adaptive toolbox approach of risky choice, according to which people first seek a no-conflict solution before resorting to conflict-resolving strategies such as the priority heuristic. (c) 2008 APA, all rights reserved

Using mobile probes to inform and measure the effectiveness of macroscopic traffic control strategies on urban networks.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-06-01

Urban traffic congestion is a problem that plagues many cities in the United States. Testing strategies to alleviate this : congestion is especially challenging due to the difficulty of modeling complex urban traffic networks. However, recent work ha...

School Moves, Coping, and Achievement: Models of Possible Interactions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boon, Helen Joanna

2011-01-01

A sample of 1,050 regional Australian secondary students participated in a study investigating the relationship between mobility and academic achievement. Measures of mobility, academic achievement, suspensions, coping strategies, parental education, and family structure were used to test the hypothesis that academic coping strategies interact…

Quantitative systems toxicology

PubMed Central

Bloomingdale, Peter; Housand, Conrad; Apgar, Joshua F.; Millard, Bjorn L.; Mager, Donald E.; Burke, John M.; Shah, Dhaval K.

2017-01-01

The overarching goal of modern drug development is to optimize therapeutic benefits while minimizing adverse effects. However, inadequate efficacy and safety concerns remain to be the major causes of drug attrition in clinical development. For the past 80 years, toxicity testing has consisted of evaluating the adverse effects of drugs in animals to predict human health risks. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recognized the need to develop innovative toxicity testing strategies and asked the National Research Council to develop a long-range vision and strategy for toxicity testing in the 21st century. The vision aims to reduce the use of animals and drug development costs through the integration of computational modeling and in vitro experimental methods that evaluates the perturbation of toxicity-related pathways. Towards this vision, collaborative quantitative systems pharmacology and toxicology modeling endeavors (QSP/QST) have been initiated amongst numerous organizations worldwide. In this article, we discuss how quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR), network-based, and pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modeling approaches can be integrated into the framework of QST models. Additionally, we review the application of QST models to predict cardiotoxicity and hepatotoxicity of drugs throughout their development. Cell and organ specific QST models are likely to become an essential component of modern toxicity testing, and provides a solid foundation towards determining individualized therapeutic windows to improve patient safety. PMID:29308440

An efficient sequential strategy for realizing cross-gradient joint inversion: method and its application to 2-D cross borehole seismic traveltime and DC resistivity tomography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Ji; Zhang, Haijiang

2018-05-01

Cross-gradient joint inversion that enforces structural similarity between different models has been widely utilized in jointly inverting different geophysical data types. However, it is a challenge to combine different geophysical inversion systems with the cross-gradient structural constraint into one joint inversion system because they may differ greatly in the model representation, forward modelling and inversion algorithm. Here we propose a new joint inversion strategy that can avoid this issue. Different models are separately inverted using the existing inversion packages and model structure similarity is only enforced through cross-gradient minimization between two models after each iteration. Although the data fitting and structural similarity enforcing processes are decoupled, our proposed strategy is still able to choose appropriate models to balance the trade-off between geophysical data fitting and structural similarity. This is realized by using model perturbations from separate data inversions to constrain the cross-gradient minimization process. We have tested this new strategy on 2-D cross borehole synthetic seismic traveltime and DC resistivity data sets. Compared to separate geophysical inversions, our proposed joint inversion strategy fits the separate data sets at comparable levels while at the same time resulting in a higher structural similarity between the velocity and resistivity models.

The Potential for Differential Findings among Invariance Testing Strategies for Multisample Measured Variable Path Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mann, Heather M.; Rutstein, Daisy W.; Hancock, Gregory R.

2009-01-01

Multisample measured variable path analysis is used to test whether causal/structural relations among measured variables differ across populations. Several invariance testing approaches are available for assessing cross-group equality of such relations, but the associated test statistics may vary considerably across methods. This study is a…

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of Different Testing Strategies that Use Antibody Levels to Detect Chronic Hepatitis C in Blood Donors.

PubMed

Granados-García, Víctor; Contreras, Ana M; García-Peña, Carmen; Salinas-Escudero, Guillermo; Thein, Hla-Hla; Flores, Yvonne N

2016-01-01

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis of seven hepatitis C virus (HCV) testing strategies in blood donors. Three of the seven strategies were based on HCV diagnosis and reporting guidelines in Mexico and four were from previous and current recommendations outlined by the CDC. The strategies that were evaluated determine antibody levels according to the signal-to-cut-off (S/CO) ratio and use reflex Immunoblot (IMB) or HCV RNA tests to confirm true positive (TP) cases of chronic HCV infection. Costs were calculated from the perspective of the Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS). A decision tree model was developed to estimate the expected number of true positive cases and costs for the base-case scenarios and for the sensitivity analyses. Base-case findings indicate an extended dominance of the CDC-USA2 and CDC-USA4 options by the IMSS Mexico3 and IMSS-Mexico1 alternatives. The probabilistic sensitivity analyses results suggest that for a willingness-to-pay (WTP) range of $0-9,000 USD the IMSS-Mexico1 strategy is the most cost-effective of all strategies ($5,000 USD per TP). The IMSS-Mexico3, IMSS-Mexico2, and CDC-USA3 strategies are also cost-effective strategies that cost between $7,800 and $8,800 USD per TP case detected. The CDC-USA1 strategy was very expensive and not cost-effective. HCV antibody testing strategies based on the classification of two or three levels of the S/CO are cost-effective procedures to identify patients who require reflex IMB or HCV RNA testing to confirm chronic HCV infection.

Value for money? Array genomic hybridization for diagnostic testing for genetic causes of intellectual disability.

PubMed

Regier, Dean A; Friedman, Jan M; Marra, Carlo A

2010-05-14

Array genomic hybridization (AGH) provides a higher detection rate than does conventional cytogenetic testing when searching for chromosomal imbalance causing intellectual disability (ID). AGH is more costly than conventional cytogenetic testing, and it remains unclear whether AGH provides good value for money. Decision analytic modeling was used to evaluate the trade-off between costs, clinical effectiveness, and benefit of an AGH testing strategy compared to a conventional testing strategy. The trade-off between cost and effectiveness was expressed via the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was performed via Monte Carlo simulation. The baseline AGH testing strategy led to an average cost increase of $217 (95% CI $172-$261) per patient and an additional 8.2 diagnoses in every 100 tested (0.082; 95% CI 0.044-0.119). The mean incremental cost per additional diagnosis was $2646 (95% CI $1619-$5296). Probabilistic sensitivity analysis demonstrated that there was a 95% probability that AGH would be cost effective if decision makers were willing to pay $4550 for an additional diagnosis. Our model suggests that using AGH instead of conventional karyotyping for most ID patients provides good value for money. Deterministic sensitivity analysis found that employing AGH after first-line cytogenetic testing had proven uninformative did not provide good value for money when compared to using AGH as first-line testing. Copyright (c) 2010 The American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Strategies for the prevention of perinatal hepatitis B transmission in a marginalized population on the Thailand-Myanmar border: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Devine, Angela; Harvey, Rebecca; Min, Aung Myat; Gilder, Mary Ellen T; Paw, Moo Koh; Kang, Joy; Watts, Isabella; Hanboonkunupakarn, Borimas; Nosten, François; McGready, Rose

2017-08-09

Data on the cost effectiveness of hepatitis B virus (HBV) screening and vaccination strategies for prevention of vertical transmission of HBV in resource limited settings is sparse. A decision tree model of HBV prevention strategies utilised data from a cohort of 7071 pregnant women on the Thailand-Myanmar border using a provider perspective. All options included universal HBV vaccination for newborns in three strategies: (1) universal vaccination alone; (2) universal vaccination with screening of women during antenatal visits with rapid diagnostic test (RDT) plus HBV immune globulin (HBIG) administration to newborns of HBV surface antigen positive women; and (3) universal vaccination with screening of women during antenatal visits plus HBIG administration to newborns of women testing HBV e antigen positive by confirmatory test. At the time of the study, the HBIG after confirmatory test strategy was used. The costs in United States Dollars (US$), infections averted and incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated and sensitivity analyses were conducted. A willingness to pay threshold of US$1200 was used. The universal HBV vaccination was the least costly option at US$4.33 per woman attending the clinic. The HBIG after (RDT) strategy had an ICER of US$716.78 per infection averted. The HBIG after confirmatory test strategy was not cost-effective due to extended dominance. The one-way sensitivity analysis showed that while the transmission parameters and cost of HBIG had the biggest impact on outcomes, the HBIG after confirmatory test only became a cost-effective option when a low test cost was used or a high HBIG cost was used. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that HBIG after RDT had an 87% likelihood of being cost-effective as compared to vaccination only at a willingness to pay threshold of US$1200. HBIG following confirmatory test is not a cost-effective strategy for preventing vertical transmission of HBV in the Thailand-Myanmar border population. By switching to HBIG following rapid diagnostic test, perinatal infections will be reduced by nearly one third. This strategy may be applicable to similar settings for marginalized populations where the confirmatory test is not logistically possible.

A New Family of Models for the Multiple-Choice Item.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-12-19

analysis of the verbal scholastic aptitude test using Birnhaum’s three-parameter logistic model. Educational and Psychological Measurement, 28, 989-1020...16. [8] McBride, J. R. Some properties of a Bayesian adaptive ability testing strategy. Applied Psychological Measurement, 1, 121-140, 1977. [9...University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI 48106 ’~KL -137- Non Govt Mon Govt 1 Dr. Earl Hunt 1 Dr. Frederick N. Lord Dept. of Psychology Educational Testing

Exploring critical pathways for urban water management to identify robust strategies under deep uncertainties.

PubMed

Urich, Christian; Rauch, Wolfgang

2014-12-01

Long-term projections for key drivers needed in urban water infrastructure planning such as climate change, population growth, and socio-economic changes are deeply uncertain. Traditional planning approaches heavily rely on these projections, which, if a projection stays unfulfilled, can lead to problematic infrastructure decisions causing high operational costs and/or lock-in effects. New approaches based on exploratory modelling take a fundamentally different view. Aim of these is, to identify an adaptation strategy that performs well under many future scenarios, instead of optimising a strategy for a handful. However, a modelling tool to support strategic planning to test the implication of adaptation strategies under deeply uncertain conditions for urban water management does not exist yet. This paper presents a first step towards a new generation of such strategic planning tools, by combing innovative modelling tools, which coevolve the urban environment and urban water infrastructure under many different future scenarios, with robust decision making. The developed approach is applied to the city of Innsbruck, Austria, which is spatially explicitly evolved 20 years into the future under 1000 scenarios to test the robustness of different adaptation strategies. Key findings of this paper show that: (1) Such an approach can be used to successfully identify parameter ranges of key drivers in which a desired performance criterion is not fulfilled, which is an important indicator for the robustness of an adaptation strategy; and (2) Analysis of the rich dataset gives new insights into the adaptive responses of agents to key drivers in the urban system by modifying a strategy. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Better Than Nothing: A Rational Approach for Minimizing the Impact of Outflow Strategy on Cerebrovascular Simulations.

PubMed

Chnafa, C; Brina, O; Pereira, V M; Steinman, D A

2018-02-01

Computational fluid dynamics simulations of neurovascular diseases are impacted by various modeling assumptions and uncertainties, including outlet boundary conditions. Many studies of intracranial aneurysms, for example, assume zero pressure at all outlets, often the default ("do-nothing") strategy, with no physiological basis. Others divide outflow according to the outlet diameters cubed, nominally based on the more physiological Murray's law but still susceptible to subjective choices about the segmented model extent. Here we demonstrate the limitations and impact of these outflow strategies, against a novel "splitting" method introduced here. With our method, the segmented lumen is split into its constituent bifurcations, where flow divisions are estimated locally using a power law. Together these provide the global outflow rate boundary conditions. The impact of outflow strategy on flow rates was tested for 70 cases of MCA aneurysm with 0D simulations. The impact on hemodynamic indices used for rupture status assessment was tested for 10 cases with 3D simulations. Differences in flow rates among the various strategies were up to 70%, with a non-negligible impact on average and oscillatory wall shear stresses in some cases. Murray-law and splitting methods gave flow rates closest to physiological values reported in the literature; however, only the splitting method was insensitive to arbitrary truncation of the model extent. Cerebrovascular simulations can depend strongly on the outflow strategy. The default zero-pressure method should be avoided in favor of Murray-law or splitting methods, the latter being released as an open-source tool to encourage the standardization of outflow strategies. © 2018 by American Journal of Neuroradiology.

Development and testing of an implementation strategy for a complex housing intervention: protocol for a mixed methods study.

PubMed

Watson, Dennis P; Young, Jeani; Ahonen, Emily; Xu, Huiping; Henderson, Macey; Shuman, Valery; Tolliver, Randi

2014-10-17

There is currently a lack of scientifically designed and tested implementation strategies. Such strategies are particularly important for highly complex interventions that require coordination between multiple parts to be successful. This paper presents a protocol for the development and testing of an implementation strategy for a complex intervention known as the Housing First model (HFM). Housing First is an evidence-based practice for chronically homeless individuals demonstrated to significantly improve a number of outcomes. Drawing on practices demonstrated to be useful in implementation and e-learning theory, our team is currently adapting a face-to-face implementation strategy so that it can be delivered over a distance. Research activities will be divided between Chicago and Central Indiana, two areas with significantly different barriers to HFM implementation. Ten housing providers (five from Chicago and five from Indiana) will be recruited to conduct an alpha test of each of four e-learning modules as they are developed. Providers will be requested to keep a detailed log of their experience completing the modules and participate in one of two focus groups. After refining the modules based on alpha test results, we will test the strategy among a sample of four housing organizations (two from Chicago and two from Indiana). We will collect and analyze both qualitative and quantitative data from administration and staff. Measures of interest include causal factors affecting implementation, training outcomes, and implementation outcomes. This project is an important first step in the development of an evidence-based implementation strategy to increase scalability and impact of the HFM. The project also has strong potential to increase limited scientific knowledge regarding implementation strategies in general.

Three Strategies for the Critical Use of Statistical Methods in Psychological Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campitelli, Guillermo; Macbeth, Guillermo; Ospina, Raydonal; Marmolejo-Ramos, Fernando

2017-01-01

We present three strategies to replace the null hypothesis statistical significance testing approach in psychological research: (1) visual representation of cognitive processes and predictions, (2) visual representation of data distributions and choice of the appropriate distribution for analysis, and (3) model comparison. The three strategies…

Spatial Strategy Use during Logo Mastery: The Impact of Cognitive Style and Development Level.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Easton, Charles E.; Watson, J. Allen

1993-01-01

Tested the Watson and Busch model of how children learn LOGO programing. Investigated second- and fifth-grade students' stage of cognitive development, stylistic preferences, and strategy usage. Field-independent children showed a marginal advantage over field-dependent children in learning to program in LOGO. (MM)

STRATOP: A Model for Designing Effective Product and Communication Strategies. Paper No. 470.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pessemier, Edgar A.

The STRATOP algorithm was developed to help planners and proponents find and test effectively designed choice objects and communication strategies. Choice objects can range from complex social, scientific, military, or educational alternatives to simple economic alternatives between assortments of branded convenience goods. Two classes of measured…

The use of modelling to evaluate and adapt strategies for animal disease control.

PubMed

Saegerman, C; Porter, S R; Humblet, M F

2011-08-01

Disease is often associated with debilitating clinical signs, disorders or production losses in animals and/or humans, leading to severe socio-economic repercussions. This explains the high priority that national health authorities and international organisations give to selecting control strategies for and the eradication of specific diseases. When a control strategy is selected and implemented, an effective method of evaluating its efficacy is through modelling. To illustrate the usefulness of models in evaluating control strategies, the authors describe several examples in detail, including three examples of classification and regression tree modelling to evaluate and improve the early detection of disease: West Nile fever in equids, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) and multifactorial diseases, such as colony collapse disorder (CCD) in the United States. Also examined are regression modelling to evaluate skin test practices and the efficacy of an awareness campaign for bovine tuberculosis (bTB); mechanistic modelling to monitor the progress of a control strategy for BSE; and statistical nationwide modelling to analyse the spatio-temporal dynamics of bTB and search for potential risk factors that could be used to target surveillance measures more effectively. In the accurate application of models, an interdisciplinary rather than a multidisciplinary approach is required, with the fewest assumptions possible.

Prediction of skin sensitization potency using machine learning approaches.

PubMed

Zang, Qingda; Paris, Michael; Lehmann, David M; Bell, Shannon; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Allen, David; Matheson, Joanna; Jacobs, Abigail; Casey, Warren; Strickland, Judy

2017-07-01

The replacement of animal use in testing for regulatory classification of skin sensitizers is a priority for US federal agencies that use data from such testing. Machine learning models that classify substances as sensitizers or non-sensitizers without using animal data have been developed and evaluated. Because some regulatory agencies require that sensitizers be further classified into potency categories, we developed statistical models to predict skin sensitization potency for murine local lymph node assay (LLNA) and human outcomes. Input variables for our models included six physicochemical properties and data from three non-animal test methods: direct peptide reactivity assay; human cell line activation test; and KeratinoSens™ assay. Models were built to predict three potency categories using four machine learning approaches and were validated using external test sets and leave-one-out cross-validation. A one-tiered strategy modeled all three categories of response together while a two-tiered strategy modeled sensitizer/non-sensitizer responses and then classified the sensitizers as strong or weak sensitizers. The two-tiered model using the support vector machine with all assay and physicochemical data inputs provided the best performance, yielding accuracy of 88% for prediction of LLNA outcomes (120 substances) and 81% for prediction of human test outcomes (87 substances). The best one-tiered model predicted LLNA outcomes with 78% accuracy and human outcomes with 75% accuracy. By comparison, the LLNA predicts human potency categories with 69% accuracy (60 of 87 substances correctly categorized). These results suggest that computational models using non-animal methods may provide valuable information for assessing skin sensitization potency. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening with primary human papillomavirus testing in Norway.

PubMed

Burger, E A; Ortendahl, J D; Sy, S; Kristiansen, I S; Kim, J J

2012-04-24

New screening technologies and vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), the necessary cause of cervical cancer, may impact optimal approaches to prevent cervical cancer. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies to inform cervical cancer prevention guidelines in Norway. We leveraged the primary epidemiologic and economic data from Norway to contextualise a simulation model of HPV-induced cervical cancer. The current cytology-only screening was compared with strategies involving cytology at younger ages and primary HPV-based screening at older ages (31/34+ years), an option being actively deliberated by the Norwegian government. We varied the switch-age, screening interval, and triage strategies for women with HPV-positive results. Uncertainty was evaluated in sensitivity analysis. Current cytology-only screening was less effective and more costly than strategies that involve switching to primary HPV testing in older ages. For unvaccinated women, switching at age 34 years to primary HPV testing every 4 years was optimal given the Norwegian cost-effectiveness threshold ($83,000 per year of life saved). For vaccinated women, a 6-year screening interval was cost-effective. When we considered a wider range of strategies, we found that an earlier switch to HPV testing (at age 31 years) may be preferred. Strategies involving a switch to HPV testing for primary screening in older women is expected to be cost-effective compared with current recommendations in Norway.

An Integrated Data-Driven Strategy for Safe-by-Design Nanoparticles: The FP7 MODERN Project.

PubMed

Brehm, Martin; Kafka, Alexander; Bamler, Markus; Kühne, Ralph; Schüürmann, Gerrit; Sikk, Lauri; Burk, Jaanus; Burk, Peeter; Tamm, Tarmo; Tämm, Kaido; Pokhrel, Suman; Mädler, Lutz; Kahru, Anne; Aruoja, Villem; Sihtmäe, Mariliis; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck; Sorensen, Peter B; Escorihuela, Laura; Roca, Carlos P; Fernández, Alberto; Giralt, Francesc; Rallo, Robert

2017-01-01

The development and implementation of safe-by-design strategies is key for the safe development of future generations of nanotechnology enabled products. The safety testing of the huge variety of nanomaterials that can be synthetized is unfeasible due to time and cost constraints. Computational modeling facilitates the implementation of alternative testing strategies in a time and cost effective way. The development of predictive nanotoxicology models requires the use of high quality experimental data on the structure, physicochemical properties and bioactivity of nanomaterials. The FP7 Project MODERN has developed and evaluated the main components of a computational framework for the evaluation of the environmental and health impacts of nanoparticles. This chapter describes each of the elements of the framework including aspects related to data generation, management and integration; development of nanodescriptors; establishment of nanostructure-activity relationships; identification of nanoparticle categories; hazard ranking and risk assessment.

Genetic testing for hereditary cancer: effects of alexithymia and coping strategies on variations in anxiety before and after result disclosure.

PubMed

Fantini-Hauwel, Carole; Dauvier, Bruno; Arciszewski, Thomas; Antoine, Pascal; Manouvrier, Sylvie

2011-07-01

This study assessed the impact of the results of genetic testing for hereditary cancer from a multifactorial health psychology perspective, considering that emotional expression plays a key role in psychological adjustment. Measures of dispositional and transactional coping strategies, anxiety and alexithymia were filled out by 77 participants in a longitudinal study design. Statistical analyses were performed using general linear models and partial least squares path modelling, low-constraint methods that are particularly useful in the behavioural sciences. While anxiety levels prior to the result announcement were predictive of the distress experienced by noncarriers, considerable variability was observed for mutation carriers. Some subjects who had lower anxiety levels before the test displayed greater anxiety afterwards, but others seemed to anticipate the distress they would experience with the result that they showed a decrease in anxiety. The mutation carriers behaved as though their adaptive functioning were reshaped by the test result, independent of their disposition and previous emotional state, except in the case of alexithymia. Difficulty expressing emotions prior to genetic testing contributed to a similar difficulty after receiving the result, adding to the latter's emotional impact by promoting emotion-focused coping strategies and increasing distress. © 2011 Taylor & Francis

An Efficient Functional Test Generation Method For Processors Using Genetic Algorithms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hudec, Ján; Gramatová, Elena

2015-07-01

The paper presents a new functional test generation method for processors testing based on genetic algorithms and evolutionary strategies. The tests are generated over an instruction set architecture and a processor description. Such functional tests belong to the software-oriented testing. Quality of the tests is evaluated by code coverage of the processor description using simulation. The presented test generation method uses VHDL models of processors and the professional simulator ModelSim. The rules, parameters and fitness functions were defined for various genetic algorithms used in automatic test generation. Functionality and effectiveness were evaluated using the RISC type processor DP32.

Cost-effectiveness of HIV drug resistance testing to inform switching to second line antiretroviral therapy in low income settings.

PubMed

Phillips, Andrew; Cambiano, Valentina; Nakagawa, Fumiyo; Mabugu, Travor; Magubu, Travor; Miners, Alec; Ford, Debbie; Pillay, Deenan; De Luca, Andrea; Lundgren, Jens; Revill, Paul

2014-01-01

To guide future need for cheap resistance tests for use in low income settings, we assessed cost-effectiveness of drug resistance testing as part of monitoring of people on first line ART - with switching from first to second line ART being conditional on NNRTI drug resistance mutations being identified. An individual level simulation model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of ART which accounts for adherence and resistance development was used to compare outcomes of various potential monitoring strategies in a typical low income setting in sub-Saharan Africa. Underlying monitoring strategies considered were based on clinical disease, CD4 count or viral load. Within each we considered a strategy in which no further measures are performed, one with a viral load measure to confirm failure, and one with both a viral load measure and a resistance test. Predicted outcomes were assessed over 2015-2025 in terms of viral suppression, first line failure, switching to second line regimen, death, HIV incidence, disability-adjusted-life-years averted and costs. Potential future low costs of resistance tests ($30) were used. The most effective strategy, in terms of DALYs averted, was one using viral load monitoring without confirmation. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for this strategy was $2113 (the same as that for viral load monitoring with confirmation). ART monitoring strategies which involved resistance testing did not emerge as being more effective or cost effective than strategies not using it. The slightly reduced ART costs resulting from use of resistance testing, due to less use of second line regimens, was of similar magnitude to the costs of resistance tests. Use of resistance testing at the time of first line failure as part of the decision whether to switch to second line therapy was not cost-effective, even though the test was assumed to be very inexpensive.

Developing an active implementation model for a chronic disease management program

PubMed Central

Smidth, Margrethe; Christensen, Morten Bondo; Olesen, Frede; Vedsted, Peter

2013-01-01

Background Introduction and diffusion of new disease management programs in healthcare is usually slow, but active theory-driven implementation seems to outperform other implementation strategies. However, we have only scarce evidence on the feasibility and real effect of such strategies in complex primary care settings where municipalities, general practitioners and hospitals should work together. The Central Denmark Region recently implemented a disease management program for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) which presented an opportunity to test an active implementation model against the usual implementation model. The aim of the present paper is to describe the development of an active implementation model using the Medical Research Council’s model for complex interventions and the Chronic Care Model. Methods We used the Medical Research Council’s five-stage model for developing complex interventions to design an implementation model for a disease management program for COPD. First, literature on implementing change in general practice was scrutinised and empirical knowledge was assessed for suitability. In phase I, the intervention was developed; and in phases II and III, it was tested in a block- and cluster-randomised study. In phase IV, we evaluated the feasibility for others to use our active implementation model. Results The Chronic Care Model was identified as a model for designing efficient implementation elements. These elements were combined into a multifaceted intervention, and a timeline for the trial in a randomised study was decided upon in accordance with the five stages in the Medical Research Council’s model; this was captured in a PaTPlot, which allowed us to focus on the structure and the timing of the intervention. The implementation strategies identified as efficient were use of the Breakthrough Series, academic detailing, provision of patient material and meetings between providers. The active implementation model was tested in a randomised trial (results reported elsewhere). Conclusion The combination of the theoretical model for complex interventions and the Chronic Care Model and the chosen specific implementation strategies proved feasible for a practice-based active implementation model for a chronic-disease-management-program for COPD. Using the Medical Research Council’s model added transparency to the design phase which further facilitated the process of implementing the program. Trial registration: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/(NCT01228708). PMID:23882169

Chinese College Test Takers' Individual Differences and Reading Test Performance: A Structural Equation Modeling Approach.

PubMed

Zhang, Limei

2016-06-01

This study reports on the relationships between test takers' individual differences and their performance on a reading comprehension test. A total of 518 Chinese college students (252 women and 256 men; M age = 19.26 year, SD = 0.98) answered a questionnaire and sit for a reading comprehension test. The study found that test takers' L2 language proficiency was closely linked to their test performance. Test takers' employment of strategies was significantly and positively associated with their performance on the test. Test takers' motivation was found to be significantly associated with reading test performance. Test anxiety was negatively related to their use of reading strategies and test performance. The results of the study lent support to the threshold hypothesis of language proficiency. The implications for classroom teaching were provided. © The Author(s) 2016.

The Trail Making test: a study of its ability to predict falls in the acute neurological in-patient population.

PubMed

Mateen, Bilal Akhter; Bussas, Matthias; Doogan, Catherine; Waller, Denise; Saverino, Alessia; Király, Franz J; Playford, E Diane

2018-05-01

To determine whether tests of cognitive function and patient-reported outcome measures of motor function can be used to create a machine learning-based predictive tool for falls. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary neurological and neurosurgical center. In all, 337 in-patients receiving neurosurgical, neurological, or neurorehabilitation-based care. Binary (Y/N) for falling during the in-patient episode, the Trail Making Test (a measure of attention and executive function) and the Walk-12 (a patient-reported measure of physical function). The principal outcome was a fall during the in-patient stay ( n = 54). The Trail test was identified as the best predictor of falls. Moreover, addition of other variables, did not improve the prediction (Wilcoxon signed-rank P < 0.001). Classical linear statistical modeling methods were then compared with more recent machine learning based strategies, for example, random forests, neural networks, support vector machines. The random forest was the best modeling strategy when utilizing just the Trail Making Test data (Wilcoxon signed-rank P < 0.001) with 68% (± 7.7) sensitivity, and 90% (± 2.3) specificity. This study identifies a simple yet powerful machine learning (Random Forest) based predictive model for an in-patient neurological population, utilizing a single neuropsychological test of cognitive function, the Trail Making test.

Translational strategies for therapeutic development in nicotine addiction: rethinking the conventional bench to bedside approach.

PubMed

Le Foll, Bernard; Pushparaj, Abhiram; Pryslawsky, Yaroslaw; Forget, Benoit; Vemuri, Kiran; Makriyannis, Alexandros; Trigo, Jose M

2014-07-03

Tobacco produces an impressive burden of disease resulting in premature death in half of users. Despite effective smoking cessation medications (nicotine replacement therapies, bupropion and varenicline), there is a very high rate of relapse following quit attempts. The use of efficient strategies for the development of novel treatments is a necessity. A 'bench to bedside strategy' was initially used to develop cannabinoid CB1 receptor antagonists for the treatment of nicotine addiction. Unfortunately, after being tested on experimental animals, what seemed to be an interesting approach for the treatment of nicotine addiction resulted in serious unwanted side effects when tested in humans. Current research is focusing again on pre-clinical models in an effort to eliminate unwanted side effects while preserving the initially observed efficacy. A 'bed side to bench strategy' was used to study the role of the insula (part of the frontal cortex) in nicotine addiction. This line of research started based on clinical observations that patients suffering stroke-induced lesions to the insula showed a greater likelihood to report immediate smoking cessation without craving or relapse. Subsequently, animal models of addiction are used to explore the role of insula in addiction. Due to the inherent limitations existing in clinical versus preclinical studies, the possibility of close interaction between both models seems to be critical for the successful development of novel therapeutic strategies for nicotine dependence. © 2013.

Optimal combinations of control strategies and cost-effective analysis for visceral leishmaniasis disease transmission.

PubMed

Biswas, Santanu; Subramanian, Abhishek; ELMojtaba, Ibrahim M; Chattopadhyay, Joydev; Sarkar, Ram Rup

2017-01-01

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly neglected tropical disease that poses a serious problem in various countries all over the world. Implementation of various intervention strategies fail in controlling the spread of this disease due to issues of parasite drug resistance and resistance of sandfly vectors to insecticide sprays. Due to this, policy makers need to develop novel strategies or resort to a combination of multiple intervention strategies to control the spread of the disease. To address this issue, we propose an extensive SIR-type model for anthroponotic visceral leishmaniasis transmission with seasonal fluctuations modeled in the form of periodic sandfly biting rate. Fitting the model for real data reported in South Sudan, we estimate the model parameters and compare the model predictions with known VL cases. Using optimal control theory, we study the effects of popular control strategies namely, drug-based treatment of symptomatic and PKDL-infected individuals, insecticide treated bednets and spray of insecticides on the dynamics of infected human and vector populations. We propose that the strategies remain ineffective in curbing the disease individually, as opposed to the use of optimal combinations of the mentioned strategies. Testing the model for different optimal combinations while considering periodic seasonal fluctuations, we find that the optimal combination of treatment of individuals and insecticide sprays perform well in controlling the disease for the time period of intervention introduced. Performing a cost-effective analysis we identify that the same strategy also proves to be efficacious and cost-effective. Finally, we suggest that our model would be helpful for policy makers to predict the best intervention strategies for specific time periods and their appropriate implementation for elimination of visceral leishmaniasis.

Work Strategies: The Development and Testing of a Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-03-01

strategies (e.g., Craik & Lockhart , 1972); hemispheric process - -7 ing differences (e.g., Seamon & Gazzaniga, 1973); problem-solving strategies (e.g...Charness, N. (1931). Aging and skilled problem solving. 3ournal of Experimental Psychology: General, 110, 21-38. Craik , F. I. \\., & Lockhart , R. S...1972). Levels of processing : A framework for memory research. Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior, L1, 671-684. 3ansereau, D. F., McDonald

How Well Has Global Ocean Heat Content Variability Been Measured?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, A.; Weiss, J.; Fox-Kemper, B.; Fabienne, G.

2016-12-01

We introduce a new strategy that uses synthetic observations of an ensemble of model simulations to test the fidelity of an observational strategy, quantifying how well it captures the statistics of variability. We apply this test to the 0-700m global ocean heat content anomaly (OHCA) as observed with in-situ measurements by the Coriolis Dataset for Reanalysis (CORA), using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) version 3.5. One-year running mean OHCAs for the years 2005 onward are found to faithfully capture the variability. During these years, synthetic observations of the model are strongly correlated at 0.94±0.06 with the actual state of the model. Overall, sub-annual variability and data before 2005 are significantly affected by the variability of the observing system. In contrast, the sometimes-used weighted integral of observations is not a good indicator of OHCA as variability in the observing system contaminates dynamical variability.

Development of an artificial neural network model for risk assessment of skin sensitization using human cell line activation test, direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™ and in silico structure alert parameter.

PubMed

Hirota, Morihiko; Ashikaga, Takao; Kouzuki, Hirokazu

2018-04-01

It is important to predict the potential of cosmetic ingredients to cause skin sensitization, and in accordance with the European Union cosmetic directive for the replacement of animal tests, several in vitro tests based on the adverse outcome pathway have been developed for hazard identification, such as the direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™ and the human cell line activation test. Here, we describe the development of an artificial neural network (ANN) prediction model for skin sensitization risk assessment based on the integrated testing strategy concept, using direct peptide reactivity assay, KeratinoSens™, human cell line activation test and an in silico or structure alert parameter. We first investigated the relationship between published murine local lymph node assay EC3 values, which represent skin sensitization potency, and in vitro test results using a panel of about 134 chemicals for which all the required data were available. Predictions based on ANN analysis using combinations of parameters from all three in vitro tests showed a good correlation with local lymph node assay EC3 values. However, when the ANN model was applied to a testing set of 28 chemicals that had not been included in the training set, predicted EC3s were overestimated for some chemicals. Incorporation of an additional in silico or structure alert descriptor (obtained with TIMES-M or Toxtree software) in the ANN model improved the results. Our findings suggest that the ANN model based on the integrated testing strategy concept could be useful for evaluating the skin sensitization potential. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Magnetohydrodynamic modelling of solar disturbances in the interplanetary medium

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dryer, M.

1985-12-01

A scientifically constructed series of interplanetary magnetohydrodynamic models is made that comprise the foundations for a composite solar terrestrial environment model. These models, unique in the field of solar wind physics, include both 2-1/2D as well as 3D time dependent codes that will lead to future operational status. We have also developed a geomagnetic storm forecasting strategy, referred to as the Solar Terrestrial Environment Model (STEM/2000), whereby these models would be appended in modular fashion to solar, magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere, and neutral atmosphere models. We stress that these models, while still not appropriate at this date for operational use, outline a strategy or blueprint for the future. This strategy, if implemented in its essential features, offers a high probability for technology transfer from theory to operational testing within, approximately, a decade. It would ensure that real time observations would be used to drive physically based models that outputs of which would be used by space environment forecasters.

Cost-effectiveness of human papillomavirus DNA testing in the United Kingdom, The Netherlands, France, and Italy.

PubMed

Kim, Jane J; Wright, Thomas C; Goldie, Sue J

2005-06-15

European countries with established cytology-based screening programs for cervical cancer will soon face decisions about whether to incorporate human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing and what strategies will be most cost-effective. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of incorporating HPV DNA testing into existing cervical cancer screening programs in the United Kingdom, The Netherlands, France, and Italy. We created a computer-based model of the natural history of cervical carcinogenesis for each using country-specific data on cervical cancer risk and compared each country's current screening policy with two new strategies: 1) cytology throughout a woman's lifetime, using HPV DNA testing as a triage strategy for equivocal cytology results ("HPV triage"), as well as 2) cytology until age 30 years and HPV DNA testing in combination with cytology in women more than 30 years of age ("combination testing"). Outcomes included reduction in lifetime cervical cancer risk, increase in life expectancy, lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios, expressed as cost per year of life saved. We explored alternative protocols and conducted sensitivity analysis on key parameters of the model over a relevant range of values to identify the most cost-effective options for each country. Both HPV DNA testing strategies, HPV triage and combination testing, were more effective than each country's status quo screening policy. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for HPV triage were less than $13,000 per year of life saved, whereas those for combination testing ranged from $9800 to $75,900 per year of life saved, depending on screening interval. We identified options that would be very cost-effective (i.e., cost-effectiveness ratio less than the gross domestic product per capita) in each of the four countries. HPV DNA testing has the potential to improve health benefits at a reasonable cost compared with current screening policies in four European countries.

Automated contouring error detection based on supervised geometric attribute distribution models for radiation therapy: A general strategy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Hsin-Chen; Tan, Jun; Dolly, Steven

2015-02-15

Purpose: One of the most critical steps in radiation therapy treatment is accurate tumor and critical organ-at-risk (OAR) contouring. Both manual and automated contouring processes are prone to errors and to a large degree of inter- and intraobserver variability. These are often due to the limitations of imaging techniques in visualizing human anatomy as well as to inherent anatomical variability among individuals. Physicians/physicists have to reverify all the radiation therapy contours of every patient before using them for treatment planning, which is tedious, laborious, and still not an error-free process. In this study, the authors developed a general strategy basedmore » on novel geometric attribute distribution (GAD) models to automatically detect radiation therapy OAR contouring errors and facilitate the current clinical workflow. Methods: Considering the radiation therapy structures’ geometric attributes (centroid, volume, and shape), the spatial relationship of neighboring structures, as well as anatomical similarity of individual contours among patients, the authors established GAD models to characterize the interstructural centroid and volume variations, and the intrastructural shape variations of each individual structure. The GAD models are scalable and deformable, and constrained by their respective principal attribute variations calculated from training sets with verified OAR contours. A new iterative weighted GAD model-fitting algorithm was developed for contouring error detection. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was employed in a unique way to optimize the model parameters to satisfy clinical requirements. A total of forty-four head-and-neck patient cases, each of which includes nine critical OAR contours, were utilized to demonstrate the proposed strategy. Twenty-nine out of these forty-four patient cases were utilized to train the inter- and intrastructural GAD models. These training data and the remaining fifteen testing data sets were separately employed to test the effectiveness of the proposed contouring error detection strategy. Results: An evaluation tool was implemented to illustrate how the proposed strategy automatically detects the radiation therapy contouring errors for a given patient and provides 3D graphical visualization of error detection results as well. The contouring error detection results were achieved with an average sensitivity of 0.954/0.906 and an average specificity of 0.901/0.909 on the centroid/volume related contouring errors of all the tested samples. As for the detection results on structural shape related contouring errors, an average sensitivity of 0.816 and an average specificity of 0.94 on all the tested samples were obtained. The promising results indicated the feasibility of the proposed strategy for the detection of contouring errors with low false detection rate. Conclusions: The proposed strategy can reliably identify contouring errors based upon inter- and intrastructural constraints derived from clinically approved contours. It holds great potential for improving the radiation therapy workflow. ROC and box plot analyses allow for analytically tuning of the system parameters to satisfy clinical requirements. Future work will focus on the improvement of strategy reliability by utilizing more training sets and additional geometric attribute constraints.« less

Testing a theoretical model of clinical nurses' intent to stay.

PubMed

Cowden, Tracy L; Cummings, Greta G

2015-01-01

Published theoretical models of nurses' intent to stay (ITS) report inconsistent outcomes, and not all hypothesized models have been adequately tested. Research has focused on cognitive rather than emotional determinants of nurses' ITS. The aim of this study was to empirically verify a complex theoretical model of nurses' ITS that includes both affective and cognitive determinants and to explore the influence of relational leadership on staff nurses' ITS. The study was a correlational, mixed-method, nonexperimental design. A subsample of the Quality Work Environment Study survey data 2009 (n = 415 nurses) was used to test our theoretical model of clinical nurses' ITS as a structural equation model. The model explained 63% of variance in ITS. Organizational commitment, empowerment, and desire to stay were the model concepts with the strongest effects on nurses' ITS. Leadership practices indirectly influenced ITS. How nurses evaluate and respond to their work environment is both an emotional and rational process. Health care organizations need to be cognizant of the influence that nurses' feelings and views of their work setting have on their intention decisions and integrate that knowledge into the development of retention strategies. Leadership practices play an important role in staff nurses' perceptions of the workplace. Identifying the mechanisms by which leadership influences staff nurses' intentions to stay presents additional focus areas for developing retention strategies.

Overcrowding in emergency departments: A review of strategies to decrease future challenges.

PubMed

Yarmohammadian, Mohammad H; Rezaei, Fatemeh; Haghshenas, Abbas; Tavakoli, Nahid

2017-01-01

Emergency departments (EDs) are the most challenging ward with respect to patient delay. The goal of this study is to present strategies that have proven to reduce delay and overcrowding in EDs. In this review article, initial electronic database search resulted in a total of 1006 articles. Thirty articles were included after reviewing full texts. Inclusion criteria were assessments of real patient flows and implementing strategies inside the hospitals. In this study, we discussed strategies of team triage, point-of-care testing, ideal ED patient journey models, streaming, and fast track. Patients might be directed to different streaming channels depending on clinical status and required practitioners. The most comprehensive strategy is ideal ED patient journey models, in which ten interrelated substrategies are provided. ED leaders should apply strategies that provide a continuous care process without deeply depending on external services.

PyMCT: A Very High Level Language Coupling Tool For Climate System Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tobis, M.; Pierrehumbert, R. T.; Steder, M.; Jacob, R. L.

2006-12-01

At the Climate Systems Center of the University of Chicago, we have been examining strategies for applying agile programming techniques to complex high-performance modeling experiments. While the "agile" development methodology differs from a conventional requirements process and its associated milestones, the process remain a formal one. It is distinguished by continuous improvement in functionality, large numbers of small releases, extensive and ongoing testing strategies, and a strong reliance on very high level languages (VHLL). Here we report on PyMCT, which we intend as a core element in a model ensemble control superstructure. PyMCT is a set of Python bindings for MCT, the Fortran-90 based Model Coupling Toolkit, which forms the infrastructure for the inter-component communication in the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). MCT provides a scalable model communication infrastructure. In order to take maximum advantage of agile software development methodologies, we exposed MCT functionality to Python, a prominent VHLL. We describe how the scalable architecture of MCT allows us to overcome the relatively weak runtime performance of Python, so that the performance of the combined system is not severely impacted. To demonstrate these advantages, we reimplemented the CCSM coupler in Python. While this alone offers no new functionality, it does provide a rigorous test of PyMCT functionality and performance. We reimplemented the CPL6 library, presenting an interesting case study of the comparison between conventional Fortran-90 programming and the higher abstraction level provided by a VHLL. The powerful abstractions provided by Python will allow much more complex experimental paradigms. In particular, we hope to build on the scriptability of our coupling strategy to enable systematic sensitivity tests. Our most ambitious objective is to combine our efforts with Bayesian inverse modeling techniques toward objective tuning at the highest level, across model architectures.

Combined Training of One Cognitive and One Metacognitive Strategy Improves Academic Writing Skills

PubMed Central

Wischgoll, Anke

2016-01-01

Academic writing is a challenging task. Expert writers apply various writing skills as they anticipate the reader’s view of their text while paying attention to structure and content. Research in the high school setting shows that the acquisition of writing skills can be supported by single-strategy training. However, research in higher education is scarce. We tested whether the development of academic writing skills can also be effectively supported by training single strategies or even combined strategies. As metacognition is an important skill for advanced and adult learners, we focused in this study on the benefit of combined cognitive strategies with and without a metacognitive strategy. An experiment including three conditions was conducted (N = 60 German-speaking psychology undergraduates, M = 22.8, SD = 4.4), which lasted for three hours. Each group received a modeling intervention of a basic cognitive strategy on the application of text structure knowledge. Two groups received an additional modeling intervention with either a cognitive strategy treatment on text summarization or a metacognitive strategy treatment on self-monitoring the writing process. One group received no further strategy treatment. Prior knowledge and learning outcomes were measured with a specially developed test on academic writing skills. In addition, all participants wrote an abstract of an empirical article. We found that learners who received the additional self-monitoring strategy intervention benefited significantly more in terms of acquisition of academic writing skills and the quality of their texts than learners who did not receive this intervention. Thus, the results underline the importance of self-monitoring strategies in academic writing. Implications and further research opportunities are discussed. PMID:26941671

Extensive testing or focused testing of patients with elevated liver enzymes.

PubMed

Tapper, Elliot B; Saini, Sameer D; Sengupta, Neil

2017-02-01

Many patients have elevated serum aminotransferases reflecting many underlying conditions, both common and rare. Clinicians generally apply one of two evaluative strategies: testing for all diseases at once (extensive) or just common diseases first (focused). We simulated the evaluation of 10,000 adult outpatients with elevated with alanine aminotransferase to compare both testing strategies. Model inputs employed population-based data from the US (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) and Britain (Birmingham and Lambeth Liver Evaluation Testing Strategies). Patients were followed until a diagnosis was provided or a diagnostic liver biopsy was considered. The primary outcome was US dollars per diagnosis. Secondary outcomes included doctor visits per diagnosis, false-positives per diagnosis and confirmatory liver biopsies ordered. The extensive testing strategy required the lowest monetary cost, yielding diagnoses for 54% of patients at $448/patient compared to 53% for $502 under the focused strategy. The extensive strategy also required fewer doctor visits (1.35 vs. 1.61 visits/patient). However, the focused strategy generated fewer false-positives (0.1 vs. 0.19/patient) and more biopsies (0.04 vs. 0.08/patient). Focused testing becomes the most cost-effective strategy when accounting for pre-test probabilities and prior evaluations performed. This includes when the respective prevalence of alcoholic, non-alcoholic and drug-induced liver disease exceeds 51.1%, 53.0% and 13.0%. Focused testing is also the most cost-effective strategy in the referral setting where assessments for viral hepatitis, alcoholic and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease have already been performed. Testing for elevated liver enzymes should be deliberate and focused to account for pre-test probabilities if possible. Many patients have elevated liver enzymes reflecting one of many possible liver diseases, some of which are very common and some of which are rare. Tests are widely available for most causes but it is unclear whether clinicians should order them all at once or direct testing based on how likely a given disease may be given the patient's history and physical exam. The tradeoffs of both approaches involve the money spent on testing, number of office visits needed, and false positive results generated. This study shows that if there are no clues available at the time of evaluation, testing all at once saves time and money while causing more false positives. However, if there are strong clues regarding the likelihood of a particular disease, limited testing saves time, money and prevents false positives. Copyright © 2016 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Characterization of pulse amplitude and pulse rate modulation for a human vestibular implant during acute electrical stimulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nguyen, T. A. K.; DiGiovanna, J.; Cavuscens, S.; Ranieri, M.; Guinand, N.; van de Berg, R.; Carpaneto, J.; Kingma, H.; Guyot, J.-P.; Micera, S.; Perez Fornos, A.

2016-08-01

Objective. The vestibular system provides essential information about balance and spatial orientation via the brain to other sensory and motor systems. Bilateral vestibular loss significantly reduces quality of life, but vestibular implants (VIs) have demonstrated potential to restore lost function. However, optimal electrical stimulation strategies have not yet been identified in patients. In this study, we compared the two most common strategies, pulse amplitude modulation (PAM) and pulse rate modulation (PRM), in patients. Approach. Four subjects with a modified cochlear implant including electrodes targeting the peripheral vestibular nerve branches were tested. Charge-equivalent PAM and PRM were applied after adaptation to baseline stimulation. Vestibulo-ocular reflex eye movement responses were recorded to evaluate stimulation efficacy during acute clinical testing sessions. Main results. PAM evoked larger amplitude eye movement responses than PRM. Eye movement response axes for lateral canal stimulation were marginally better aligned with PRM than with PAM. A neural network model was developed for the tested stimulation strategies to provide insights on possible neural mechanisms. This model suggested that PAM would consistently cause a larger ensemble firing rate of neurons and thus larger responses than PRM. Significance. Due to the larger magnitude of eye movement responses, our findings strongly suggest PAM as the preferred strategy for initial VI modulation.

Pathway-based predictive approaches for non-animal assessment of acute inhalation toxicity.

PubMed

Clippinger, Amy J; Allen, David; Behrsing, Holger; BéruBé, Kelly A; Bolger, Michael B; Casey, Warren; DeLorme, Michael; Gaça, Marianna; Gehen, Sean C; Glover, Kyle; Hayden, Patrick; Hinderliter, Paul; Hotchkiss, Jon A; Iskandar, Anita; Keyser, Brian; Luettich, Karsta; Ma-Hock, Lan; Maione, Anna G; Makena, Patrudu; Melbourne, Jodie; Milchak, Lawrence; Ng, Sheung P; Paini, Alicia; Page, Kathryn; Patlewicz, Grace; Prieto, Pilar; Raabe, Hans; Reinke, Emily N; Roper, Clive; Rose, Jane; Sharma, Monita; Spoo, Wayne; Thorne, Peter S; Wilson, Daniel M; Jarabek, Annie M

2018-06-20

New approaches are needed to assess the effects of inhaled substances on human health. These approaches will be based on mechanisms of toxicity, an understanding of dosimetry, and the use of in silico modeling and in vitro test methods. In order to accelerate wider implementation of such approaches, development of adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) can help identify and address gaps in our understanding of relevant parameters for model input and mechanisms, and optimize non-animal approaches that can be used to investigate key events of toxicity. This paper describes the AOPs and the toolbox of in vitro and in silico models that can be used to assess the key events leading to toxicity following inhalation exposure. Because the optimal testing strategy will vary depending on the substance of interest, here we present a decision tree approach to identify an appropriate non-animal integrated testing strategy that incorporates consideration of a substance's physicochemical properties, relevant mechanisms of toxicity, and available in silico models and in vitro test methods. This decision tree can facilitate standardization of the testing approaches. Case study examples are presented to provide a basis for proof-of-concept testing to illustrate the utility of non-animal approaches to inform hazard identification and risk assessment of humans exposed to inhaled substances. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of a novel blood-pool contrast agent in the setting of chest pain evaluation in an emergency department.

PubMed

Espinosa, Gabriela; Annapragada, Ananth

2013-10-01

We evaluated three diagnostic strategies with the objective of comparing the current standard of care for individuals presenting acute chest pain and no history of coronary artery disease (CAD) with a novel diagnostic strategy using an emerging technology (blood-pool contrast agent [BPCA]) to identify the potential benefits and cost reductions. A decision analytic model of diagnostic strategies and outcomes using a BPCA and a conventional agent for CT angiography (CTA) in patients with acute chest pain was built. The model was used to evaluate three diagnostic strategies: CTA using a BPCA followed by invasive coronary angiography (ICA), CTA using a conventional agent followed by ICA, and ICA alone. The use of the two CTA-based triage tests before ICA in a population with a CAD prevalence of less than 47% was predicted to be more cost-effective than ICA alone. Using the base-case values and a cost premium for BPCA over the conventional CT agent (cost of BPCA ≈ 5× that of a conventional agent) showed that CTA with a BPCA before ICA resulted in the most cost-effective strategy; the other strategies were ruled out by simple dominance. The model strongly depends on the rates of complications from the diagnostic tests included in the model. In a population with an elevated risk of contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN), a significant premium cost per BPCA dose still resulted in the alternative whereby CTA using BPCA was more cost-effective than CTA using a conventional agent. A similar effect was observed for potential complications resulting from the BPCA injection. Conversely, in the presence of a similar complication rate from BPCA, the diagnostic strategy of CTA using a conventional agent would be the optimal alternative. BPCAs could have a significant impact in the diagnosis of acute chest pain, in particular for populations with high incidences of CIN. In addition, a BPCA strategy could garner further savings if currently excluded phenomena including renal disease and incidental findings were included in the decision model.

Pattern-oriented modeling of agent-based complex systems: Lessons from ecology

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-01-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Pattern-Oriented Modeling of Agent-Based Complex Systems: Lessons from Ecology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grimm, Volker; Revilla, Eloy; Berger, Uta; Jeltsch, Florian; Mooij, Wolf M.; Railsback, Steven F.; Thulke, Hans-Hermann; Weiner, Jacob; Wiegand, Thorsten; DeAngelis, Donald L.

2005-11-01

Agent-based complex systems are dynamic networks of many interacting agents; examples include ecosystems, financial markets, and cities. The search for general principles underlying the internal organization of such systems often uses bottom-up simulation models such as cellular automata and agent-based models. No general framework for designing, testing, and analyzing bottom-up models has yet been established, but recent advances in ecological modeling have come together in a general strategy we call pattern-oriented modeling. This strategy provides a unifying framework for decoding the internal organization of agent-based complex systems and may lead toward unifying algorithmic theories of the relation between adaptive behavior and system complexity.

Determining the Ideal Strategy for Ventilator-associated Pneumonia Prevention. Cost-Benefit Analysis.

PubMed

Branch-Elliman, Westyn; Wright, Sharon B; Howell, Michael D

2015-07-01

Ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) is a common healthcare-associated infection with high associated cost and poor patient outcomes. Many strategies for VAP reduction have been evaluated. However, the combination of strategies with the optimal cost-benefit ratio remains unknown. To determine the preferred VAP prevention strategy, both from the hospital and societal perspectives. A cost-benefit decision model with a Markov model was constructed. Baseline probability of VAP, death, reintubation, and discharge from the intensive care unit (ICU) alive were ascertained from clinical trial data. Model inputs were obtained from the medical literature and the U.S. Department of Labor; a device cost was obtained from the manufacturer. Sensitivity analyses were completed to test the robustness of model results. Overall least expensive strategy and the strategy with the best cost-benefit ratio, up to a willingness to pay threshold of $50,000-100,000 per case of VAP averted was sought. We examined a total of 120 unique combinations of VAP prevention strategies. The preferred strategy from the hospital perspective included subglottic suction endotracheal tubes, probiotics, and the Institute for Healthcare Improvement VAP Prevention Bundle. The preferred strategy from the point of view of society also included additional prevention measures (oral care with chlorhexidine and selective oral decontamination). No preferred strategies included silver endotracheal tubes or selective gut decontamination. Despite their infrequent use, current data suggest that the use of prophylactic probiotics and subglottic endotracheal tubes are cost-effective for preventing VAP from the societal and hospital perspectives.

Disclosing Mental Illness Information to a Friend: Exploring How the Disclosure Decision-Making Model Informs Strategy Selection.

PubMed

Venetis, Maria K; Chernichky-Karcher, Skye; Gettings, Patricia E

2018-06-01

Within the context of mental illness disclosure between friends, this study tested the disclosure decision-making model (DD-MM; Greene, 2009) to comprehensively investigate factors that predict disclosure enactment strategies. The DD-MM describes how individuals determine whether they will reveal or conceal non-visible health information. Processes of revealing, called disclosures, take various forms including preparation and rehearsal, directness, third-party disclosure, incremental disclosures, entrapment, and indirect mediums (Afifi & Steuber, 2009). We explore the disclosure decision-making process to understand how college students select to disclose their mental illness information with a friend. Participants were 144 students at a Midwestern university who had disclosed their mental illness information to a friend. Structural equation modeling analyses revealed that college students choose strategies based on their evaluation of information assessment and closeness, and that for some strategies, efficacy mediates the relationship between information assessment and strategy. This manuscript discusses implications of findings and suggests direction for future research.

Phase I Flow and Transport Model Document for Corrective Action Unit 97: Yucca Flat/Climax Mine, Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 1 with ROTCs 1 and 2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Andrews, Robert

The Underground Test Area (UGTA) Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 97, Yucca Flat/Climax Mine, in the northeast part of the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) requires environmental corrective action activities to assess contamination resulting from underground nuclear testing. These activities are necessary to comply with the UGTA corrective action strategy (referred to as the UGTA strategy). The corrective action investigation phase of the UGTA strategy requires the development of groundwater flow and contaminant transport models whose purpose is to identify the lateral and vertical extent of contaminant migration over the next 1,000 years. In particular, the goal is to calculate themore » contaminant boundary, which is defined as a probabilistic model-forecast perimeter and a lower hydrostratigraphic unit (HSU) boundary that delineate the possible extent of radionuclide-contaminated groundwater from underground nuclear testing. Because of structural uncertainty in the contaminant boundary, a range of potential contaminant boundaries was forecast, resulting in an ensemble of contaminant boundaries. The contaminant boundary extent is determined by the volume of groundwater that has at least a 5 percent chance of exceeding the radiological standards of the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) (CFR, 2012).« less

Damping and impact properties of laminated scaffolds and glass columns evaluated through the use of computational methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieves, Ian

Dynamic finite element analysis (FEA) was used to verify the ability of a novel percussion instrument to characterize the composition and structure of laminated materials and glass columns and to elucidate key facets of this process. Initial simulations modeling the percussion process with varying probe geometries were performed to access which configuration most accurately represented in situ diagnostic activity. Percussion testing of monoliths and laminated duplex scaffolds consisting of PTFE and 6061 Al was simulated to assess the ability of the numeric methodology to model intrinsic damping in laminated scaffolds and determine the potential contributions of size effects, gripping configurations, and probe friction to the loading response of the material being tested. Percussion testing of laminated scaffolds and monoliths composed of either PMMA or PLGA was modeled to investigate the effects of defects on the impact response and to evaluate promising strategies for enhancing damping that promotes tissue regeneration in biomedical materials. Percussion testing of virgin and cracked glass columns was modeled and the resulting probe acceleration predictions compared to corresponding experimental findings to evaluate the overall accuracy of the methodology and to discern its capacity for elucidating facets of defect detection in rigid materials. Overall, the modeling the results validated the effectiveness of the numeric methodology for modeling and elucidating the mechanics of percussion testing and suggested strategies whereby this procedure can facilitate the development of innovative biomedical materials designed to promote tissue regeneration.

Testing the Model-Observer Similarity Hypothesis with Text-Based Worked Examples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoogerheide, Vincent; Loyens, Sofie M. M.; Jadi, Fedora; Vrins, Anna; van Gog, Tamara

2017-01-01

Example-based learning is a very effective and efficient instructional strategy for novices. It can be implemented using text-based worked examples that provide a written demonstration of how to perform a task, or (video) modelling examples in which an instructor (the "model") provides a demonstration. The model-observer similarity (MOS)…

Development of Specialization Scales for the MSPI: A Comparison of Empirical and Inductive Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Porfeli, Erik J.; Richard, George V.; Savickas, Mark L.

2010-01-01

An empirical measurement model for interest inventory construction uses internal criteria whereas an inductive measurement model uses external criteria. The empirical and inductive measurement models are compared and contrasted and then two models are assessed through tests of the effectiveness and economy of scales for the Medical Specialty…

College Students Solving Chemistry Problems: A Theoretical Model of Expertise

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Taasoobshirazi, Gita; Glynn, Shawn M.

2009-01-01

A model of expertise in chemistry problem solving was tested on undergraduate science majors enrolled in a chemistry course. The model was based on Anderson's "Adaptive Control of Thought-Rational" (ACT-R) theory. The model shows how conceptualization, self-efficacy, and strategy interact and contribute to the successful solution of quantitative,…

How much detail and accuracy is required in plant growth sub-models to address questions about optimal management strategies in agricultural systems?

PubMed Central

Renton, Michael

2011-01-01

Background and aims Simulations that integrate sub-models of important biological processes can be used to ask questions about optimal management strategies in agricultural and ecological systems. Building sub-models with more detail and aiming for greater accuracy and realism may seem attractive, but is likely to be more expensive and time-consuming and result in more complicated models that lack transparency. This paper illustrates a general integrated approach for constructing models of agricultural and ecological systems that is based on the principle of starting simple and then directly testing for the need to add additional detail and complexity. Methodology The approach is demonstrated using LUSO (Land Use Sequence Optimizer), an agricultural system analysis framework based on simulation and optimization. A simple sensitivity analysis and functional perturbation analysis is used to test to what extent LUSO's crop–weed competition sub-model affects the answers to a number of questions at the scale of the whole farming system regarding optimal land-use sequencing strategies and resulting profitability. Principal results The need for accuracy in the crop–weed competition sub-model within LUSO depended to a small extent on the parameter being varied, but more importantly and interestingly on the type of question being addressed with the model. Only a small part of the crop–weed competition model actually affects the answers to these questions. Conclusions This study illustrates an example application of the proposed integrated approach for constructing models of agricultural and ecological systems based on testing whether complexity needs to be added to address particular questions of interest. We conclude that this example clearly demonstrates the potential value of the general approach. Advantages of this approach include minimizing costs and resources required for model construction, keeping models transparent and easy to analyse, and ensuring the model is well suited to address the question of interest. PMID:22476477

Cost-Effectiveness of Different Cervical Screening Strategies in Islamic Republic of Iran: A Middle-Income Country with a Low Incidence Rate of Cervical Cancer.

PubMed

Nahvijou, Azin; Daroudi, Rajabali; Tahmasebi, Mamak; Amouzegar Hashemi, Farnaz; Rezaei Hemami, Mohsen; Akbari Sari, Ali; Barati Marenani, Ahmad; Zendehdel, Kazem

2016-01-01

Invasive cervical cancer (ICC) is the fourth most common cancer among women worldwide. Cervical screening programs have reduced the incidence and mortality rates of ICC. We studied the cost-effectiveness of different cervical screening strategies in the Islamic Republic of Iran, a Muslim country with a low incidence rate of ICC. We constructed an 11-state Markov model, in which the parameters included regression and progression probabilities, test characteristics, costs, and utilities; these were extracted from primary data and the literature. Our strategies included Pap smear screening and human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing plus Pap smear triaging with different starting ages and screening intervals. Model outcomes included lifetime costs, life years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the stability of the results. We found that the prevented mortalities for the 11 strategies compared with no screening varied from 26% to 64%. The most cost-effective strategy was HPV screening, starting at age 35 years and repeated every 10 years. The ICER of this strategy was $8,875 per QALY compared with no screening. We found that screening at 5-year intervals was also cost-effective based on GDP per capita in Iran. We recommend organized cervical screening with HPV DNA testing for women in Iran, beginning at age 35 and repeated every 10 or 5 years. The results of this study could be generalized to other countries with low incidence rates of cervical cancer.

Cost-Effectiveness of Different Cervical Screening Strategies in Islamic Republic of Iran: A Middle-Income Country with a Low Incidence Rate of Cervical Cancer

PubMed Central

Nahvijou, Azin; Daroudi, Rajabali; Tahmasebi, Mamak; Amouzegar Hashemi, Farnaz; Rezaei Hemami, Mohsen; Akbari Sari, Ali; Barati Marenani, Ahmad; Zendehdel, Kazem

2016-01-01

Objective Invasive cervical cancer (ICC) is the fourth most common cancer among women worldwide. Cervical screening programs have reduced the incidence and mortality rates of ICC. We studied the cost-effectiveness of different cervical screening strategies in the Islamic Republic of Iran, a Muslim country with a low incidence rate of ICC. Methods We constructed an 11-state Markov model, in which the parameters included regression and progression probabilities, test characteristics, costs, and utilities; these were extracted from primary data and the literature. Our strategies included Pap smear screening and human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing plus Pap smear triaging with different starting ages and screening intervals. Model outcomes included lifetime costs, life years gained, quality-adjusted life years (QALY), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to examine the stability of the results. Results We found that the prevented mortalities for the 11 strategies compared with no screening varied from 26% to 64%. The most cost-effective strategy was HPV screening, starting at age 35 years and repeated every 10 years. The ICER of this strategy was $8,875 per QALY compared with no screening. We found that screening at 5-year intervals was also cost-effective based on GDP per capita in Iran. Conclusion We recommend organized cervical screening with HPV DNA testing for women in Iran, beginning at age 35 and repeated every 10 or 5 years. The results of this study could be generalized to other countries with low incidence rates of cervical cancer. PMID:27276093

Direct Evidence for a Dual Process Model of Deductive Inference

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Markovits, Henry; Brunet, Marie-Laurence; Thompson, Valerie; Brisson, Janie

2013-01-01

In 2 experiments, we tested a strong version of a dual process theory of conditional inference (cf. Verschueren et al., 2005a, 2005b) that assumes that most reasoners have 2 strategies available, the choice of which is determined by situational variables, cognitive capacity, and metacognitive control. The statistical strategy evaluates inferences…

Effects of Teaching Strategies in Annotated Bibliography Writing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tan-de Ramos, Jennifer

2015-01-01

The study examines the effect of teaching strategies to improved writing of students in the tertiary level. Specifically, three teaching approaches--the use of modelling, grammar-based, and information element-focused--were tested on their effect on the writing of annotated bibliography in three research classes at a university in Manila.…

Unfavorable Individuals in Social Gaming Networks.

PubMed

Zhang, Yichao; Chen, Guanrong; Guan, Jihong; Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng

2015-12-09

In social gaming networks, the current research focus has been on the origin of widespread reciprocal behaviors when individuals play non-cooperative games. In this paper, we investigate the topological properties of unfavorable individuals in evolutionary games. The unfavorable individuals are defined as the individuals gaining the lowest average payoff in a round of game. Since the average payoff is normally considered as a measure of fitness, the unfavorable individuals are very likely to be eliminated or change their strategy updating rules from a Darwinian perspective. Considering that humans can hardly adopt a unified strategy to play with their neighbors, we propose a divide-and-conquer game model, where individuals can interact with their neighbors in the network with appropriate strategies. We test and compare a series of highly rational strategy updating rules. In the tested scenarios, our analytical and simulation results surprisingly reveal that the less-connected individuals in degree-heterogeneous networks are more likely to become the unfavorable individuals. Our finding suggests that the connectivity of individuals as a social capital fundamentally changes the gaming environment. Our model, therefore, provides a theoretical framework for further understanding the social gaming networks.

Unfavorable Individuals in Social Gaming Networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yichao; Chen, Guanrong; Guan, Jihong; Zhang, Zhongzhi; Zhou, Shuigeng

2015-12-01

In social gaming networks, the current research focus has been on the origin of widespread reciprocal behaviors when individuals play non-cooperative games. In this paper, we investigate the topological properties of unfavorable individuals in evolutionary games. The unfavorable individuals are defined as the individuals gaining the lowest average payoff in a round of game. Since the average payoff is normally considered as a measure of fitness, the unfavorable individuals are very likely to be eliminated or change their strategy updating rules from a Darwinian perspective. Considering that humans can hardly adopt a unified strategy to play with their neighbors, we propose a divide-and-conquer game model, where individuals can interact with their neighbors in the network with appropriate strategies. We test and compare a series of highly rational strategy updating rules. In the tested scenarios, our analytical and simulation results surprisingly reveal that the less-connected individuals in degree-heterogeneous networks are more likely to become the unfavorable individuals. Our finding suggests that the connectivity of individuals as a social capital fundamentally changes the gaming environment. Our model, therefore, provides a theoretical framework for further understanding the social gaming networks.

Telerobotic system performance measurement - Motivation and methods

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kondraske, George V.; Khoury, George J.

1992-01-01

A systems performance-based strategy for modeling and conducting experiments relevant to the design and performance characterization of telerobotic systems is described. A developmental testbed consisting of a distributed telerobotics network and initial efforts to implement the strategy described is presented. Consideration is given to the general systems performance theory (GSPT) to tackle human performance problems as a basis for: measurement of overall telerobotic system (TRS) performance; task decomposition; development of a generic TRS model; and the characterization of performance of subsystems comprising the generic model. GSPT employs a resource construct to model performance and resource economic principles to govern the interface of systems to tasks. It provides a comprehensive modeling/measurement strategy applicable to complex systems including both human and artificial components. Application is presented within the framework of a distributed telerobotics network as a testbed. Insight into the design of test protocols which elicit application-independent data is described.

A user-friendly, open-source tool to project impact and cost of diagnostic tests for tuberculosis

PubMed Central

Dowdy, David W; Andrews, Jason R; Dodd, Peter J; Gilman, Robert H

2014-01-01

Most models of infectious diseases, including tuberculosis (TB), do not provide results customized to local conditions. We created a dynamic transmission model to project TB incidence, TB mortality, multidrug-resistant (MDR) TB prevalence, and incremental costs over 5 years after scale-up of nine alternative diagnostic strategies. A corresponding web-based interface allows users to specify local costs and epidemiology. In settings with little capacity for up-front investment, same-day microscopy had the greatest impact on TB incidence and became cost-saving within 5 years if delivered at $10/test. With greater initial investment, population-level scale-up of Xpert MTB/RIF or microcolony-based culture often averted 10 times more TB cases than narrowly-targeted strategies, at minimal incremental long-term cost. Xpert for smear-positive TB had reasonable impact on MDR-TB incidence, but at substantial price and little impact on overall TB incidence and mortality. This user-friendly modeling framework improves decision-makers' ability to evaluate the local impact of TB diagnostic strategies. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.02565.001 PMID:24898755

Placental alpha-microglobulin-1 and combined traditional diagnostic test: a cost-benefit analysis.

PubMed

Echebiri, Nelson C; McDoom, M Maya; Pullen, Jessica A; Aalto, Meaghan M; Patel, Natasha N; Doyle, Nora M

2015-01-01

We sought to evaluate if the placental alpha-microglobulin (PAMG)-1 test vs the combined traditional diagnostic test (CTDT) of pooling, nitrazine, and ferning would be a cost-beneficial screening strategy in the setting of potential preterm premature rupture of membranes. A decision analysis model was used to estimate the economic impact of PAMG-1 test vs the CTDT on preterm delivery costs from a societal perspective. Our primary outcome was the annual net cost-benefit per person tested. Baseline probabilities and costs assumptions were derived from published literature. We conducted sensitivity analyses using both deterministic and probabilistic models. Cost estimates reflect 2013 US dollars. Annual net benefit from PAMG-1 was $20,014 per person tested, while CTDT had a net benefit of $15,757 per person tested. If the probability of rupture is <38%, PAMG-1 will be cost-beneficial with an annual net benefit of $16,000-37,000 per person tested, while CTDT will have an annual net benefit of $16,000-19,500 per person tested. If the probability of rupture is >38%, CTDT is more cost-beneficial. Monte Carlo simulations of 1 million trials selected PAMG-1 as the optimal strategy with a frequency of 89%, while CTDT was only selected as the optimal strategy with a frequency of 11%. Sensitivity analyses were robust. Our cost-benefit analysis provides the economic evidence for the adoption of PAMG-1 in diagnosing preterm premature rupture of membranes in uncertain presentations and when CTDT is equivocal at 34 to <37 weeks' gestation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Imaging for Appendicitis: Should Radiation-induced Cancer Risks Affect Modality Selection?

PubMed Central

Kiatpongsan, Sorapop; Meng, Lesley; Eisenberg, Jonathan D.; Herring, Maurice; Avery, Laura L.; Kong, Chung Yin

2014-01-01

Purpose To compare life expectancy (LE) losses attributable to three imaging strategies for appendicitis in adults—computed tomography (CT), ultrasonography (US) followed by CT for negative or indeterminate US results, and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging—by using a decision-analytic model. Materials and Methods In this model, for each imaging strategy, LE losses for 20-, 40-, and 65-year-old men and women were computed as a function of five key variables: baseline cohort LE, test performance, surgical mortality, risk of death from delayed diagnosis (missed appendicitis), and LE loss attributable to radiation-induced cancer death. Appendicitis prevalence, test performance, mortality rates from surgery and missed appendicitis, and radiation doses from CT were elicited from the published literature and institutional data. LE loss attributable to radiation exposure was projected by using a separate organ-specific model that accounted for anatomic coverage during a typical abdominopelvic CT examination. One- and two-way sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate effects of model input variability on results. Results Outcomes across imaging strategies differed minimally—for example, for 20-year-old men, corresponding LE losses were 5.8 days (MR imaging), 6.8 days (combined US and CT), and 8.2 days (CT). This order was sensitive to differences in test performance but was insensitive to variation in radiation-induced cancer deaths. For example, in the same cohort, MR imaging sensitivity had to be 91% at minimum (if specificity were 100%), and MR imaging specificity had to be 62% at minimum (if sensitivity were 100%) to incur the least LE loss. Conversely, LE loss attributable to radiation exposure would need to decrease by 74-fold for combined US and CT, instead of MR imaging, to incur the least LE loss. Conclusion The specific imaging strategy used to diagnose appendicitis minimally affects outcomes. Paradigm shifts to MR imaging owing to concerns over radiation should be considered only if MR imaging test performance is very high. © RSNA, 2014 PMID:24988435

Realization of process improvement at a diagnostic radiology department with aid of simulation modeling.

PubMed

Oh, Hong-Choon; Toh, Hong-Guan; Giap Cheong, Eddy Seng

2011-11-01

Using the classical process improvement framework of Plan-Do-Study-Act (PDSA), the diagnostic radiology department of a tertiary hospital identified several patient cycle time reduction strategies. Experimentation of these strategies (which included procurement of new machines, hiring of new staff, redesign of queue system, etc.) through pilot scale implementation was impractical because it might incur substantial expenditure or be operationally disruptive. With this in mind, simulation modeling was used to test these strategies via performance of "what if" analyses. Using the output generated by the simulation model, the team was able to identify a cost-free cycle time reduction strategy, which subsequently led to a reduction of patient cycle time and achievement of a management-defined performance target. As healthcare professionals work continually to improve healthcare operational efficiency in response to rising healthcare costs and patient expectation, simulation modeling offers an effective scientific framework that can complement established process improvement framework like PDSA to realize healthcare process enhancement. © 2011 National Association for Healthcare Quality.

An integrative machine learning strategy for improved prediction of essential genes in Escherichia coli metabolism using flux-coupled features.

PubMed

Nandi, Sutanu; Subramanian, Abhishek; Sarkar, Ram Rup

2017-07-25

Prediction of essential genes helps to identify a minimal set of genes that are absolutely required for the appropriate functioning and survival of a cell. The available machine learning techniques for essential gene prediction have inherent problems, like imbalanced provision of training datasets, biased choice of the best model for a given balanced dataset, choice of a complex machine learning algorithm, and data-based automated selection of biologically relevant features for classification. Here, we propose a simple support vector machine-based learning strategy for the prediction of essential genes in Escherichia coli K-12 MG1655 metabolism that integrates a non-conventional combination of an appropriate sample balanced training set, a unique organism-specific genotype, phenotype attributes that characterize essential genes, and optimal parameters of the learning algorithm to generate the best machine learning model (the model with the highest accuracy among all the models trained for different sample training sets). For the first time, we also introduce flux-coupled metabolic subnetwork-based features for enhancing the classification performance. Our strategy proves to be superior as compared to previous SVM-based strategies in obtaining a biologically relevant classification of genes with high sensitivity and specificity. This methodology was also trained with datasets of other recent supervised classification techniques for essential gene classification and tested using reported test datasets. The testing accuracy was always high as compared to the known techniques, proving that our method outperforms known methods. Observations from our study indicate that essential genes are conserved among homologous bacterial species, demonstrate high codon usage bias, GC content and gene expression, and predominantly possess a tendency to form physiological flux modules in metabolism.

An agent-based model evaluation of economic control strategies for paratuberculosis in a dairy herd.

PubMed

Verteramo Chiu, Leslie J; Tauer, Loren W; Al-Mamun, Mohammad A; Kaniyamattam, Karun; Smith, Rebecca L; Grohn, Yrjo T

2018-04-25

This paper uses an agent-based simulation model to estimate the costs associated with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP), or Johne's disease, in a milking herd, and to determine the net benefits of implementing various control strategies. The net present value (NPV) of a 1,000-cow milking herd is calculated over 20 yr, parametrized to a representative US commercial herd. The revenues of the herd are generated from sales of milk and culled animals. The costs include all variable and fixed costs necessary to operate a representative 1,000-cow milking herd. We estimate the NPV of the herd with no MAP infection, under an expected endemic infection distribution with no controls, and under an expected endemic infection distribution with various controls. The initial number of cows in a herd with an endemic MAP infection is distributed as 75% susceptible, 13% latent, 9% low MAP shedding, and 3% high MAP shedding. Control strategies include testing using ELISA and fecal culture tests and culling of cows that test positive, and culling based on observable milk production decrease. Results show that culling cows based on test results does not increase the herd's NPV and in most cases decreases NPV due to test costs as well as false positives and negatives with their associated costs (e.g., culling healthy cows and keeping infected cows). Culling consistently low producing cows when MAP is believed to be present in the herd produces higher NPV over the strategy of testing and culling MAP infected animals, and over the case of no MAP control. Copyright © 2018 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Test scheduling optimization for 3D network-on-chip based on cloud evolutionary algorithm of Pareto multi-objective

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Chuanpei; Niu, Junhao; Ling, Jing; Wang, Suyan

2018-03-01

In this paper, we present a parallel test strategy for bandwidth division multiplexing under the test access mechanism bandwidth constraint. The Pareto solution set is combined with a cloud evolutionary algorithm to optimize the test time and power consumption of a three-dimensional network-on-chip (3D NoC). In the proposed method, all individuals in the population are sorted in non-dominated order and allocated to the corresponding level. Individuals with extreme and similar characteristics are then removed. To increase the diversity of the population and prevent the algorithm from becoming stuck around local optima, a competition strategy is designed for the individuals. Finally, we adopt an elite reservation strategy and update the individuals according to the cloud model. Experimental results show that the proposed algorithm converges to the optimal Pareto solution set rapidly and accurately. This not only obtains the shortest test time, but also optimizes the power consumption of the 3D NoC.

t4 Workshop Report

PubMed Central

Silbergeld, Ellen K.; Contreras, Elizabeth Q.; Hartung, Thomas; Hirsch, Cordula; Hogberg, Helena; Jachak, Ashish C.; Jordan, William; Landsiedel, Robert; Morris, Jeffery; Patri, Anil; Pounds, Joel G.; de Vizcaya Ruiz, Andrea; Shvedova, Anna; Tanguay, Robert; Tatarazako, Norihasa; van Vliet, Erwin; Walker, Nigel J.; Wiesner, Mark; Wilcox, Neil; Zurlo, Joanne

2014-01-01

Summary In October 2010, a group of experts met as part of the transatlantic think tank for toxicology (t4) to exchange ideas about the current status and future of safety testing of nanomaterials. At present, there is no widely accepted path forward to assure appropriate and effective hazard identification for engineered nanomaterials. The group discussed needs for characterization of nanomaterials and identified testing protocols that incorporate the use of innovative alternative whole models such as zebrafish or C. elegans, as well as in vitro or alternative methods to examine specific functional pathways and modes of action. The group proposed elements of a potential testing scheme for nanomaterials that works towards an integrated testing strategy, incorporating the goals of the NRC report Toxicity Testing in the 21st Century: A Vision and a Strategy by focusing on pathways of toxic response, and utilizing an evidence-based strategy for developing the knowledge base for safety assessment. Finally, the group recommended that a reliable, open, curated database be developed that interfaces with existing databases to enable sharing of information. PMID:21993959

Animal models for microbicide studies.

PubMed

Veazey, Ronald S; Shattock, Robin J; Klasse, Per Johan; Moore, John P

2012-01-01

There have been encouraging recent successes in the development of safe and effective topical microbicides to prevent vaginal or rectal HIV-1 transmission, based on the use of anti-retroviral drugs. However, much work remains to be accomplished before a microbicide becomes a standard element of prevention science strategies. Animal models should continue to play an important role in pre-clinical testing, with emphasis on safety, pharmacokinetic and efficacy testing.

Cost-Effectiveness of One-Time Hepatitis C Screening Strategies Among Adolescents and Young Adults in Primary Care Settings.

PubMed

Assoumou, Sabrina A; Tasillo, Abriana; Leff, Jared A; Schackman, Bruce R; Drainoni, Mari-Lynn; Horsburgh, C Robert; Barry, M Anita; Regis, Craig; Kim, Arthur Y; Marshall, Alison; Saxena, Sheel; Smith, Peter C; Linas, Benjamin P

2018-01-18

High hepatitis C virus (HCV) rates have been reported in young people who inject drugs (PWID). We evaluated the clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of testing among youth seen in communities with a high overall number of reported HCV cases. We developed a decision analytic model to project quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs (2016 US$), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of 9 strategies for 1-time testing among 15- to 30-year-olds seen at urban community health centers. Strategies differed in 3 ways: targeted vs routine testing, rapid finger stick vs standard venipuncture, and ordered by physician vs by counselor/tester using standing orders. We performed deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) to evaluate uncertainty. Compared to targeted risk-based testing (current standard of care), routine testing increased the lifetime medical cost by $80 and discounted QALYs by 0.0013 per person. Across all strategies, rapid testing provided higher QALYs at a lower cost per QALY gained and was always preferred. Counselor-initiated routine rapid testing was associated with an ICER of $71000/QALY gained. Results were sensitive to offer and result receipt rates. Counselor-initiated routine rapid testing was cost-effective (ICER <$100000/QALY) unless the prevalence of PWID was <0.59%, HCV prevalence among PWID was <16%, reinfection rate was >26 cases per 100 person-years, or reflex confirmatory testing followed all reactive venipuncture diagnostics. In PSA, routine rapid testing was the optimal strategy in 90% of simulations. Routine rapid HCV testing among 15- to 30-year-olds may be cost-effective when the prevalence of PWID is >0.59%. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Adaptive Test Schemes for Control of Paratuberculosis in Dairy Cows.

PubMed

Kirkeby, Carsten; Græsbøll, Kaare; Nielsen, Søren Saxmose; Christiansen, Lasse Engbo; Toft, Nils; Halasa, Tariq

2016-01-01

Paratuberculosis is a chronic infection that in dairy cattle causes reduced milk yield, weight loss, and ultimately fatal diarrhea. Subclinical animals can excrete bacteria (Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis, MAP) in feces and infect other animals. Farmers identify the infectious animals through a variety of test-strategies, but are challenged by the lack of perfect tests. Frequent testing increases the sensitivity but the costs of testing are a cause of concern for farmers. Here, we used a herd simulation model using milk ELISA tests to evaluate the epidemiological and economic consequences of continuously adapting the sampling interval in response to the estimated true prevalence in the herd. The key results were that the true prevalence was greatly affected by the hygiene level and to some extent by the test-frequency. Furthermore, the choice of prevalence that will be tolerated in a control scenario had a major impact on the true prevalence in the normal hygiene setting, but less so when the hygiene was poor. The net revenue is not greatly affected by the test-strategy, because of the general variation in net revenues between farms. An exception to this is the low hygiene herd, where frequent testing results in lower revenue. When we look at the probability of eradication, then it is correlated with the testing frequency and the target prevalence during the control phase. The probability of eradication is low in the low hygiene herd, and a test-and-cull strategy should probably not be the primary strategy in this herd. Based on this study we suggest that, in order to control MAP, the standard Danish dairy farm should use an adaptive strategy where a short sampling interval of three months is used when the estimated true prevalence is above 1%, and otherwise use a long sampling interval of one year.

Supportive group action for women: a self-help strategy.

PubMed

Stewart, M

1983-09-01

A major goal of the demonstration project described was to test a model of self-help and voluntary support in developing groups for female single parents. Community meetings, study programs, and related experiential strategies were used to promote coping skills and strategies; access to resources; decision-making learning and responsibility; social contacts and networking; work skills and employment opportunities. The effectiveness of the model, which emphasized self-help, consumer power, and accessibility, was reflected in increased membership, self-awareness and confidence, leadership, employment and development of community resources. Initial individual contact, informal contracting, and community support were seen as important factors in the project's success.

Modeling companion diagnostics in economic evaluations of targeted oncology therapies: systematic review and methodological checklist.

PubMed

Doble, Brett; Tan, Marcus; Harris, Anthony; Lorgelly, Paula

2015-02-01

The successful use of a targeted therapy is intrinsically linked to the ability of a companion diagnostic to correctly identify patients most likely to benefit from treatment. The aim of this study was to review the characteristics of companion diagnostics that are of importance for inclusion in an economic evaluation. Approaches for including these characteristics in model-based economic evaluations are compared with the intent to describe best practice methods. Five databases and government agency websites were searched to identify model-based economic evaluations comparing a companion diagnostic and subsequent treatment strategy to another alternative treatment strategy with model parameters for the sensitivity and specificity of the companion diagnostic (primary synthesis). Economic evaluations that limited model parameters for the companion diagnostic to only its cost were also identified (secondary synthesis). Quality was assessed using the Quality of Health Economic Studies instrument. 30 studies were included in the review (primary synthesis n = 12; secondary synthesis n = 18). Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios may be lower when the only parameter for the companion diagnostic included in a model is the cost of testing. Incorporating the test's accuracy in addition to its cost may be a more appropriate methodological approach. Altering the prevalence of the genetic biomarker, specific population tested, type of test, test accuracy and timing/sequence of multiple tests can all impact overall model results. The impact of altering a test's threshold for positivity is unknown as it was not addressed in any of the included studies. Additional quality criteria as outlined in our methodological checklist should be considered due to the shortcomings of standard quality assessment tools in differentiating studies that incorporate important test-related characteristics and those that do not. There is a need to refine methods for incorporating the characteristics of companion diagnostics into model-based economic evaluations to ensure consistent and transparent reimbursement decisions are made.

Structural properties of H13 tool steel parts produced with use of selective laser melting technology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Šafka, J.; Ackermann, M.; Voleský, L.

2016-04-01

This paper deals with establishing of building parameters for 1.2344 (H13) tool steel processed using Selective Laser Melting (SLM) technology with layer thickness of 50 µm. In the first part of the work, testing matrix of models in the form of a cube with chamfered edge were built under various building parameters such as laser scanning speed and laser power. Resulting models were subjected to set of tests including measurement of surface roughness, inspection of inner structure with aid of Light Optical Microscopy and Scanning Electron Microscopy and evaluation of micro-hardness. These tests helped us to evaluate an influence of changes in building strategy to the properties of the resulting model. In the second part of the work, mechanical properties of the H13 steel were examined. For this purpose, the set of samples in the form of “dog bone” were printed under three different alignments towards the building plate and tested on universal testing machine. Mechanical testing of the samples should then reveal if the different orientation and thus different layering of the material somehow influence its mechanical properties. For this type of material, the producer provides the parameters for layer thickness of 30 µm only. Thus, our 50 µm building strategy brings shortening of the building time which is valuable especially for large models. Results of mechanical tests show slight variation in mechanical properties for various alignment of the sample.

Testing Crites' Model of Career Maturity: A Hierarchical Strategy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wallbrown, Fred H.; And Others

1986-01-01

Investigated the construct validity of Crites' model of career maturity and the Career Maturity Inventory (CMI). Results from a nationwide sample of adolescents, using hierarchical factor analytic methodology, indicated confirmatory support for the multidimensionality of Crites' model of career maturity, and the construct validity of the CMI as a…

Testing a Model of Functional Impairment in Telephone Crisis Support Workers.

PubMed

Kitchingman, Taneile A; Wilson, Coralie J; Caputi, Peter; Wilson, Ian; Woodward, Alan

2017-11-01

It is well known that helping professionals experience functional impairment related to elevated symptoms of psychological distress as a result of frequent empathic engagement with distressed others. Whether telephone crisis support workers are impacted in a similar way is not currently reported in the literature. The purpose of this study was to test a hypothesized model of factors contributing to functional impairment in telephone crisis support workers. A national sample of 210 telephone crisis support workers completed an online survey including measures of emotion regulation, symptoms of general psychological distress and suicidal ideation, intentions to seek help for symptoms, and functional impairment. Structural equation modeling was used to test the fit of the data to the hypothesized model. Goodness-of-fit indices were adequate and supported the interactive effects of emotion regulation, general psychological distress, suicidal ideation, and intentions to seek help for ideation on functional impairment. These results warrant the deliberate management of telephone crisis support workers' impairment through service selection, training, supervision, and professional development strategies. Future research replicating and extending this model will further inform the modification and/or development of strategies to optimize telephone crisis support workers' well-being and delivery of support to callers.

Animals and the 3Rs in toxicology research and testing: The way forward.

PubMed

Stokes, W S

2015-12-01

Despite efforts to eliminate the use of animals in testing and the availability of many accepted alternative methods, animals are still widely used for toxicological research and testing. While research using in vitro and computational models has dramatically increased in recent years, such efforts have not yet measurably impacted animal use for regulatory testing and are not likely to do so for many years or even decades. Until regulatory authorities have accepted test methods that can totally replace animals and these are fully implemented, large numbers of animals will continue to be used and many will continue to experience significant pain and distress. In order to positively impact the welfare of these animals, accepted alternatives must be implemented, and efforts must be directed at eliminating pain and distress and reducing animal numbers. Animal pain and distress can be reduced by earlier predictive humane endpoints, pain-relieving medications, and supportive clinical care, while sequential testing and routine use of integrated testing and decision strategies can reduce animal numbers. Applying advances in science and technology to the development of scientifically sound alternative testing models and strategies can improve animal welfare and further reduce and replace animal use. © The Author(s) 2015.

Modelling how drivers respond to a bicyclist crossing their path at an intersection: How do test track and driving simulator compare?

PubMed

Boda, Christian-Nils; Dozza, Marco; Bohman, Katarina; Thalya, Prateek; Larsson, Annika; Lubbe, Nils

2018-02-01

Bicyclist fatalities are a great concern in the European Union. Most of them are due to crashes between motorized vehicles and bicyclists at unsignalised intersections. Different countermeasures are currently being developed and implemented in order to save lives. One type of countermeasure, active safety systems, requires a deep understanding of driver behaviour to be effective without being annoying. The current study provides new knowledge about driver behaviour which can inform assessment programmes for active safety systems such as Euro NCAP. This study investigated how drivers responded to bicyclists crossing their path at an intersection. The influences of car speed and cyclist speed on the driver response process were assessed for three different crossing configurations. The same experimental protocol was tested in a fixed-base driving simulator and on a test track. A virtual model of the test track was used in the driving simulator to keep the protocol as consistent as possible across testing environments. Results show that neither car speed nor bicycle speed directly influenced the response process. The crossing configuration did not directly influence the braking response process either, but it did influence the strategy chosen by the drivers to approach the intersection. The point in time when the bicycle became visible (which depended on the car speed, the bicycle speed, and the crossing configuration) and the crossing configuration alone had the largest effects on the driver response process. Dissimilarities between test-track and driving-simulator studies were found; however, there were also interesting similarities, especially in relation to the driver braking behaviour. Drivers followed the same strategy to initiate braking, independent of the test environment. On the other hand, the test environment affected participants' strategies for releasing the gas pedal and regulating deceleration. Finally, a mathematical model, based on both experiments, is proposed to characterize driver braking behaviour in response to bicyclists crossing at intersections. This model has direct implications on what variables an in-vehicle safety system should consider and how tests in evaluation programs should be designed. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Human organ-on-a-chip BioMEMS devices for testing new diagnostic and therapeutic strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leary, James F.; Key, Jaehong; Vidi, Pierre-Alexandre; Cooper, Christy L.; Kole, Ayeeshik; Reece, Lisa M.; Lelièvre, Sophie A.

2013-03-01

MEMS human "organs-on-a-chip" can be used to create model human organ systems for developing new diagnostic and therapeutic strategies. They represent a promising new strategy for rapid testing of new diagnostic and therapeutic approaches without the need for involving risks to human subjects. We are developing multicomponent, superparamagnetic and fluorescent nanoparticles as X-ray and MRI contrast agents for noninvasive multimodal imaging and for antibody- or peptide-targeted drug delivery to tumor and precancerous cells inside these artificial organ MEMS devices. Magnetic fields can be used to move the nanoparticles "upstream" to find their target cells in an organs-on-achip model of human ductal breast cancer. Theoretically, unbound nanoparticles can then be removed by reversing the magnetic field to give a greatly enhanced image of tumor cells within these artificial organ structures. Using branched PDMS microchannels and 3D tissue engineering of normal and malignant human breast cancer cells inside those MEMS channels, we can mimic the early stages of human ductal breast cancer with the goal to improve the sensitivity and resolution of mammography and MRI of very small tumors and test new strategies for treatments. Nanomedical systems can easily be imaged by multicolor confocal microscopy inside the artificial organs to test targeting and therapeutic responses including the differential viability of normal and tumor cells during treatments. Currently we are using 2-dimensional MEMS structures, but these studies can be extended to more complex 3D structures using new 3D printing technologies.

Human Life History Strategies.

PubMed

Chua, Kristine J; Lukaszewski, Aaron W; Grant, DeMond M; Sng, Oliver

2017-01-01

Human life history (LH) strategies are theoretically regulated by developmental exposure to environmental cues that ancestrally predicted LH-relevant world states (e.g., risk of morbidity-mortality). Recent modeling work has raised the question of whether the association of childhood family factors with adult LH variation arises via (i) direct sampling of external environmental cues during development and/or (ii) calibration of LH strategies to internal somatic condition (i.e., health), which itself reflects exposure to variably favorable environments. The present research tested between these possibilities through three online surveys involving a total of over 26,000 participants. Participants completed questionnaires assessing components of self-reported environmental harshness (i.e., socioeconomic status, family neglect, and neighborhood crime), health status, and various LH-related psychological and behavioral phenotypes (e.g., mating strategies, paranoia, and anxiety), modeled as a unidimensional latent variable. Structural equation models suggested that exposure to harsh ecologies had direct effects on latent LH strategy as well as indirect effects on latent LH strategy mediated via health status. These findings suggest that human LH strategies may be calibrated to both external and internal cues and that such calibrational effects manifest in a wide range of psychological and behavioral phenotypes.

An explanatory model of academic achievement based on aptitudes, goal orientations, self-concept and learning strategies.

PubMed

Miñano Pérez, Pablo; Castejón Costa, Juan-Luis; Gilar Corbí, Raquel

2012-03-01

As a result of studies examining factors involved in the learning process, various structural models have been developed to explain the direct and indirect effects that occur between the variables in these models. The objective was to evaluate a structural model of cognitive and motivational variables predicting academic achievement, including general intelligence, academic self-concept, goal orientations, effort and learning strategies. The sample comprised of 341 Spanish students in the first year of compulsory secondary education. Different tests and questionnaires were used to evaluate each variable, and Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) was applied to contrast the relationships of the initial model. The model proposed had a satisfactory fit, and all the hypothesised relationships were significant. General intelligence was the variable most able to explain academic achievement. Also important was the direct influence of academic self-concept on achievement, goal orientations and effort, as well as the mediating ability of effort and learning strategies between academic goals and final achievement.

Animal models of ulcerative colitis and their application in drug research

PubMed Central

Low, Daren; Nguyen, Deanna D; Mizoguchi, Emiko

2013-01-01

The specific pathogenesis underlying inflammatory bowel disease is complex, and it is even more difficult to decipher the pathophysiology to explain for the similarities and differences between two of its major subtypes, Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis (UC). Animal models are indispensable to pry into mechanistic details that will facilitate better preclinical drug/therapy design to target specific components involved in the disease pathogenesis. This review focuses on common animal models that are particularly useful for the study of UC and its therapeutic strategy. Recent reports of the latest compounds, therapeutic strategies, and approaches tested on UC animal models are also discussed. PMID:24250223

Determination of photovoltaic concentrator optical design specifications using performance modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerschen, Kevin A.; Levy, Sheldon L.

The strategy used to develop an optical design specification for a 500X concentration photovoltaic module to be used with a 28-percent-efficient concentrator photovoltaic cell is reported. The computer modeling code (PVOPTICS) developed for this purpose, a Fresnel lens design strategy, and optical component specification procedures are described. Comparisons are made between the predicted performance and the measured performance of components fabricated to those specifications. An acrylic lens and a reflective secondary optical element have been tested, showing efficiencies exceeding 88 percent.

NASA GRC and MSFC Space-Plasma Arc Testing Procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferguson, Dale C.; Vayner, Boris V.; Galofaro, Joel T,; Hillard, G. Barry; Vaughn, Jason; Schneider, Todd

2005-01-01

Tests of arcing and current collection in simulated space plasma conditions have been performed at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in Cleveland, Ohio, for over 30 years and at the Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, Alabama, for almost as long. During this period, proper test conditions for accurate and meaningful space simulation have been worked out, comparisons with actual space performance in spaceflight tests and with real operational satellites have been made, and NASA has achieved our own internal standards for test protocols. It is the purpose of this paper to communicate the test conditions, test procedures, and types of analysis used at NASA GRC and MSFC to the space environmental testing community at large, to help with international space-plasma arcing-testing standardization. To be discussed are: 1.Neutral pressures, neutral gases, and vacuum chamber sizes. 2. Electron and ion densities, plasma uniformity, sample sizes, and Debuy lengths. 3. Biasing samples versus self-generated voltages. Floating samples versus grounded. 4. Power supplies and current limits. Isolation of samples from power supplies during arcs. 5. Arc circuits. Capacitance during biased arc-threshold tests. Capacitance during sustained arcing and damage tests. Arc detection. Prevention sustained discharges during testing. 6. Real array or structure samples versus idealized samples. 7. Validity of LEO tests for GEO samples. 8. Extracting arc threshold information from arc rate versus voltage tests. 9. Snapover and current collection at positive sample bias. Glows at positive bias. Kapon (R) pyrolisis. 10. Trigger arc thresholds. Sustained arc thresholds. Paschen discharge during sustained arcing. 11. Testing for Paschen discharge threshold. Testing for dielectric breakdown thresholds. Testing for tether arcing. 12. Testing in very dense plasmas (ie thruster plumes). 13. Arc mitigation strategies. Charging mitigation strategies. Models. 14. Analysis of test results. Finally, the necessity of testing will be emphasized, not to the exclusion of modeling, but as part of a complete strategy for determining when and if arcs will occur, and preventing them from occurring in space.

NASA GRC and MSFC Space-Plasma Arc Testing Procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ferguson, Dale C.a; Vayner, Boris V.; Galofaro, Joel T.; Hillard, G. Barry; Vaughn, Jason; Schneider, Todd

2005-01-01

Tests of arcing and current collection in simulated space plasma conditions have been performed at the NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) in Cleveland, Ohio, for over 30 years and at the Marshall Space flight Center (MSFC) for almost as long. During this period, proper test conditions for accurate and meaningful space simulation have been worked out, comparisons with actual space performance in spaceflight tests and with real operational satellites have been made, and NASA has achieved our own internal standards for test protocols. It is the purpose of this paper to communicate the test conditions, test procedures, and types of analysis used at NASA GRC and MSFC to the space environmental testing community at large, to help with international space-plasma arcing testing standardization. To be discussed are: 1. Neutral pressures, neutral gases, and vacuum chamber sizes. 2. Electron and ion densities, plasma uniformity, sample sizes, and Debye lengths. 3. Biasing samples versus self-generated voltages. Floating samples versus grounded. 4. Power supplies and current limits. Isolation of samples from power supplies during arcs. Arc circuits. Capacitance during biased arc-threshold tests. Capacitance during sustained arcing and damage tests. Arc detection. Preventing sustained discharges during testing. 5. Real array or structure samples versus idealized samples. 6. Validity of LEO tests for GEO samples. 7. Extracting arc threshold information from arc rate versus voltage tests. 8 . Snapover and current collection at positive sample bias. Glows at positive bias. Kapton pyrolization. 9. Trigger arc thresholds. Sustained arc thresholds. Paschen discharge during sustained arcing. 10. Testing for Paschen discharge thresholds. Testing for dielectric breakdown thresholds. Testing for tether arcing. 11. Testing in very dense plasmas (ie thruster plumes). 12. Arc mitigation strategies. Charging mitigation strategies. Models. 13. Analysis of test results. Finally, the necessity of testing will be emphasized, not to the exclusion of modeling, but as part of a complete strategy for determining when and if arcs will occur, and preventing them from occurring in space.

Cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening with primary human papillomavirus testing in Norway

PubMed Central

Burger, E A; Ortendahl, J D; Sy, S; Kristiansen, I S; Kim, J J

2012-01-01

Background: New screening technologies and vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV), the necessary cause of cervical cancer, may impact optimal approaches to prevent cervical cancer. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of alternative screening strategies to inform cervical cancer prevention guidelines in Norway. Methods: We leveraged the primary epidemiologic and economic data from Norway to contextualise a simulation model of HPV-induced cervical cancer. The current cytology-only screening was compared with strategies involving cytology at younger ages and primary HPV-based screening at older ages (31/34+ years), an option being actively deliberated by the Norwegian government. We varied the switch-age, screening interval, and triage strategies for women with HPV-positive results. Uncertainty was evaluated in sensitivity analysis. Results: Current cytology-only screening was less effective and more costly than strategies that involve switching to primary HPV testing in older ages. For unvaccinated women, switching at age 34 years to primary HPV testing every 4 years was optimal given the Norwegian cost-effectiveness threshold ($83 000 per year of life saved). For vaccinated women, a 6-year screening interval was cost-effective. When we considered a wider range of strategies, we found that an earlier switch to HPV testing (at age 31 years) may be preferred. Conclusions: Strategies involving a switch to HPV testing for primary screening in older women is expected to be cost-effective compared with current recommendations in Norway. PMID:22441643

Economic evaluation of test-and-treat and empirical treatment strategies in the eradication of Helicobacter pylori infection; A Markov model in an Iranian adult population.

PubMed

Mazdaki, Alireza; Ghiasvand, Hesam; Sarabi Asiabar, Ali; Naghdi, Seyran; Aryankhesal, Aidin

2016-01-01

Helicobacter pylori may cause many gastrointestinal problems in developing countries such as Iran. We aimed to analyze the cost- effectiveness and cost- utility of the test-and-treat and empirical treatment strategies in managing Helicobacter pylori infection. This was a Markov based economic evaluation. Effectiveness was defined as the symptoms free numbers and QALYs in 100,000 hypothetical adults. The sensitivity analysis was based on Monte Carlo approach. In the test- and- treat strategy, if the serology is the first diagnostic test vs. histology, the cost per symptoms free number would be 291,736.1 Rials while the cost per QALYs would be 339,226.1 Rials. The cost per symptoms free number and cost per QALYs when the 13 C-UBT was used as the first diagnostic test vs. serology was 1,283,200 and 1,492,103 Rials, respectively. In the empirical strategy, if histology is used as the first diagnostic test vs. 13 CUBT, the cost per symptoms free numbers and cost per QALYs would be 793,234 and 955,698 Rials, respectively. If serology were used as the first diagnostic test vs. histology, the cost per symptoms free and QALYs would be 793,234 and 368941 Rials, respectively. There was no significant and considerable dominancy between the alternatives and the diagnostic tests.

Cost-Effectiveness of Cervical Cancer Screening With Human Papillomavirus DNA Testing and HPV-16,18 Vaccination

PubMed Central

Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D.; Stout, Natasha K.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Kuntz, Karen M.; Goldie, Sue J.

2011-01-01

Background The availability of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing and vaccination against HPV types 16 and 18 (HPV-16,18) motivates questions about the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer prevention in the United States for unvaccinated older women and for girls eligible for vaccination. Methods An empirically calibrated model was used to assess the quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (2004 US dollars per QALY) of screening, vaccination of preadolescent girls, and vaccination combined with screening. Screening varied by initiation age (18, 21, or 25 years), interval (every 1, 2, 3, or 5 years), and test (HPV DNA testing of cervical specimens or cytologic evaluation of cervical cells with a Pap test). Testing strategies included: 1) cytology followed by HPV DNA testing for equivocal cytologic results (cytology with HPV test triage); 2) HPV DNA testing followed by cytology for positive HPV DNA results (HPV test with cytology triage); and 3) combined HPV DNA testing and cytology. Strategies were permitted to switch once at age 25, 30, or 35 years. Results For unvaccinated women, triennial cytology with HPV test triage, beginning by age 21 years and switching to HPV testing with cytology triage at age 30 years, cost $78 000 per QALY compared with the next best strategy. For girls vaccinated before age 12 years, this same strategy, beginning at age 25 years and switching at age 35 years, cost $41 000 per QALY with screening every 5 years and $188 000 per QALY screening triennially, each compared with the next best strategy. These strategies were more effective and cost-effective than screening women of all ages with cytology alone or cytology with HPV triage annually or biennially. Conclusions For both vaccinated and unvaccinated women, age-based screening by use of HPV DNA testing as a triage test for equivocal results in younger women and as a primary screening test in older women is expected to be more cost-effective than current screening recommendations. PMID:18314477

On-line identification of fermentation processes for ethanol production.

PubMed

Câmara, M M; Soares, R M; Feital, T; Naomi, P; Oki, S; Thevelein, J M; Amaral, M; Pinto, J C

2017-07-01

A strategy for monitoring fermentation processes, specifically, simultaneous saccharification and fermentation (SSF) of corn mash, was developed. The strategy covered the development and use of first principles, semimechanistic and unstructured process model based on major kinetic phenomena, along with mass and energy balances. The model was then used as a reference model within an identification procedure capable of running on-line. The on-line identification procedure consists on updating the reference model through the estimation of corrective parameters for certain reaction rates using the most recent process measurements. The strategy makes use of standard laboratory measurements for sugars quantification and in situ temperature and liquid level data. The model, along with the on-line identification procedure, has been tested against real industrial data and have been able to accurately predict the main variables of operational interest, i.e., state variables and its dynamics, and key process indicators. The results demonstrate that the strategy is capable of monitoring, in real time, this complex industrial biomass fermentation. This new tool provides a great support for decision-making and opens a new range of opportunities for industrial optimization.

Operation management of daily economic dispatch using novel hybrid particle swarm optimization and gravitational search algorithm with hybrid mutation strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yan; Huang, Song; Ji, Zhicheng

2017-07-01

This paper presents a hybrid particle swarm optimization and gravitational search algorithm based on hybrid mutation strategy (HGSAPSO-M) to optimize economic dispatch (ED) including distributed generations (DGs) considering market-based energy pricing. A daily ED model was formulated and a hybrid mutation strategy was adopted in HGSAPSO-M. The hybrid mutation strategy includes two mutation operators, chaotic mutation, Gaussian mutation. The proposed algorithm was tested on IEEE-33 bus and results show that the approach is effective for this problem.

Environmental restraints and life strategies: a habitat templet matrix.

PubMed

Holm, E

1988-02-01

Four basic environmental restraints on life are deduced from the requirements of life's inherent order laws. Possible life strategies to contend with these restraints are listed. The various combinations of the restraints are subsequently investigated, and appropriate combinations of life strategies are fitted. This model is finally tested against insect case histories in various environments, and is demonstrated to explain some combinations of characteristics of insects in ecosystems not covered by the r-K or r-K-A continua. The role of heterochrony in achieving appropriate life strategies is briefly discussed.

Jitter Test Program and On-Orbit Mitigation Strategies for Solar Dynamic Observatory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Liu, Kuo-Chia; Kenney, Thomas; Maghami, Peiman; Mule, Pete; Blaurock, Carl; Haile, William B.

2007-01-01

The Solar Dynamic Observatory (SDO) aims to study the Sun's influence on the Earth, the source, storage, and release of the solar energy, and the interior structure of the Sun. During science observations, the jitter stability at the instrument focal plane must be maintained to less than a fraction of an arcsecond for two of the SDO instruments. To meet these stringent requirements, a significant amount of analysis and test effort has been devoted to predicting the jitter induced from various disturbance sources. This paper presents an overview of the SDO jitter analysis approach and test effort performed to date. It emphasizes the disturbance modeling, verification, calibration, and validation of the high gain antenna stepping mechanism and the reaction wheels, which are the two largest jitter contributors. This paper also describes on-orbit mitigation strategies to protect the system from analysis model uncertainties. Lessons learned from the SDO jitter analyses and test programs are included in the paper to share the knowledge gained with the community.

Testing the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory in the Chinese context.

PubMed

Wang, Ya; Chen, Xing-Jie; Cui, Ji-Fang; Liu, Lu-Lu

2015-09-01

In this study, the authors evaluated the Chinese version of the Zimbardo Time Perspective Inventory (ZTPI). The ZTPI was tested among a sample of 303 university students. A subsample of 51 participants was then asked to complete the ZTPI again along with another set of questionnaires. The five-factor model of a 20-item short version of the ZTPI showed good model fit, internal consistency, and test-retest reliability. The 20-item Chinese version of the ZTPI also provided good validity, showing correlations with other variables in expected directions. Past-Positive was positively correlated with reappraisal and negatively correlated with suppression emotion regulation strategies, and Present-Hedonistic was positively correlated with reappraisal emotion regulation strategies. These findings indicate that the ZTPI is a reliable and valid instrument for measuring time perspective in the Chinese setting. © 2015 The Institute of Psychology, Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

An Evaluation of Some Models for Culture-Fair Selection.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Petersen, Nancy S.; Novick, Melvin R.

Models proposed by Cleary, Thorndike, Cole, Linn, Einhorn and Bass, Darlington, and Gross and Su for analyzing bias in the use of tests in a selection strategy are surveyed. Several additional models are also introduced. The purpose is to describe, compare, contrast, and evaluate these models while extracting such useful ideas as may be found in…

Predictive Relationships between Secondary School Students' Human Values, Motivational Beliefs, and Self-Regulated Learning Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tanriseven, Isil; Dilmac, Bulent

2013-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the exploratory and predictive relationships between secondary school students' human values and their motivational beliefs and self-regulated learning strategies and thus to test the relevant model was developed. A correlational filed study was used in this research. The sample of the research…

Behavior Management Strategies for Teachers: Achieving Instructional Effectiveness, Student Success, and Student Motivation--Every Teacher and Any Student Can! 2nd Edition.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Harlan, Joan C.; Rowland, Sidney T.

This book provides tested methods for teachers to use in their behavior management and instructional efforts, offering strategies for maintaining and increasing appropriate behaviors as well as preventing and remediating inappropriate behaviors. Section 1, "Understanding Behavior and Selected Models," includes (1) "Understanding…

Physiologically-based kinetic modelling in risk assessment

EPA Science Inventory

The European Union Reference Laboratory for Alternatives to Animal Testing (EURL ECVAM) hosted a two-day workshop with an aim to discuss the role and application of Physiologically Based Kinetic (PBK) models in regulatory decision making. The EURL ECVAM strategy document on Toxic...

Optimal Multi-Type Sensor Placement for Structural Identification by Static-Load Testing

PubMed Central

Papadopoulou, Maria; Vernay, Didier; Smith, Ian F. C.

2017-01-01

Assessing ageing infrastructure is a critical challenge for civil engineers due to the difficulty in the estimation and integration of uncertainties in structural models. Field measurements are increasingly used to improve knowledge of the real behavior of a structure; this activity is called structural identification. Error-domain model falsification (EDMF) is an easy-to-use model-based structural-identification methodology which robustly accommodates systematic uncertainties originating from sources such as boundary conditions, numerical modelling and model fidelity, as well as aleatory uncertainties from sources such as measurement error and material parameter-value estimations. In most practical applications of structural identification, sensors are placed using engineering judgment and experience. However, since sensor placement is fundamental to the success of structural identification, a more rational and systematic method is justified. This study presents a measurement system design methodology to identify the best sensor locations and sensor types using information from static-load tests. More specifically, three static-load tests were studied for the sensor system design using three types of sensors for a performance evaluation of a full-scale bridge in Singapore. Several sensor placement strategies are compared using joint entropy as an information-gain metric. A modified version of the hierarchical algorithm for sensor placement is proposed to take into account mutual information between load tests. It is shown that a carefully-configured measurement strategy that includes multiple sensor types and several load tests maximizes information gain. PMID:29240684

Animal models for microbicide studies

PubMed Central

Veazey, Ronald S.; Shattock, Robin J; Klasse, Per Johan; Moore, John P.

2013-01-01

There have been encouraging recent successes in the development of safe and effective topical microbicides to prevent vaginal or rectal HIV-1 transmission, based on the use of anti-retroviral drugs. However, much work remains to be accomplished before a microbicide becomes a standard element of prevention science strategies. Animal models should continue to play an important role in pre-clinical testing, with emphasis on safety, pharmacokinetic and efficacy testing. PMID:22264049

Top-Mounted Propulsion Test Plans (TMP17)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridges, James; Henderson, Brenda; Huff, Dennis

2017-01-01

NASA recently completed a study of propulsion cycles and nozzle types applicable to a 70-passenger, M1.6 supersonic airliner, paying especial attention to the noise produced during landing and take-off. The results of the study were validated in a model-scale test at NASA Glenn last summer. The findings of that study and test, along with other studies, have resulted in a new strategy for achieving the Commercial Supersonic Technologys goals for noise and performance. Key to that strategy is moving the propulsion to the top-side of the vehicle and modifying the nozzle and inlet to maximally shield the propulsion noise while maintaining efficient operation. Installed exhaust configurations have been designed to minimize the exhaust noise using new acoustic design tools. A test planned for the fall of 2017 will validate both the new design tools and the low-noise concept using a new translating phased array. During the test, questions regarding modifications of convected waves in the jet near-field that are key to new understandings of aft jet noise will be addressed. Also, to better tie rig results to real-world measurements, a model-scale version of a nozzle that was flight tested by Glenn Research Center in 2001 will be tested.

The effects of demand uncertainty on strategic gaming in the merit-order electricity pool market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frem, Bassam

In a merit-order electricity pool market, generating companies (Gencos) game with their offered incremental cost to meet the electricity demand and earn bigger market shares and higher profits. However when the demand is treated as a random variable instead of as a known constant, these Genco gaming strategies become more complex. After a brief introduction of electricity markets and gaming, the effects of demand uncertainty on strategic gaming are studied in two parts: (1) Demand modelled as a discrete random variable (2) Demand modelled as a continuous random variable. In the first part, we proposed an algorithm, the discrete stochastic strategy (DSS) algorithm that generates a strategic set of offers from the perspective of the Gencos' profits. The DSS offers were tested and compared to the deterministic Nash equilibrium (NE) offers based on the predicted demand. This comparison, based on the expected Genco profits, showed the DSS to be a better strategy in a probabilistic sense than the deterministic NE. In the second part, we presented three gaming strategies: (1) Deterministic NE (2) No-Risk (3) Risk-Taking. The strategies were then tested and their profit performances were compared using two assessment tools: (a) Expected value and standard deviation (b) Inverse cumulative distribution. We concluded that despite yielding higher profit performance under the right conjectures, Risk-Taking strategies are very sensitive to incorrect conjectures on the competitors' gaming decisions. As such, despite its lower profit performance, the No-Risk strategy was deemed preferable.

A RSSI-based parameter tracking strategy for constrained position localization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Jinze; Diouris, Jean-François; Wang, Yide

2017-12-01

In this paper, a received signal strength indicator (RSSI)-based parameter tracking strategy for constrained position localization is proposed. To estimate channel model parameters, least mean squares method (LMS) is associated with the trilateration method. In the context of applications where the positions are constrained on a grid, a novel tracking strategy is proposed to determine the real position and obtain the actual parameters in the monitored region. Based on practical data acquired from a real localization system, an experimental channel model is constructed to provide RSSI values and verify the proposed tracking strategy. Quantitative criteria are given to guarantee the efficiency of the proposed tracking strategy by providing a trade-off between the grid resolution and parameter variation. The simulation results show a good behavior of the proposed tracking strategy in the presence of space-time variation of the propagation channel. Compared with the existing RSSI-based algorithms, the proposed tracking strategy exhibits better localization accuracy but consumes more calculation time. In addition, a tracking test is performed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed tracking strategy.

Integrated decision strategies for skin sensitization hazard.

PubMed

Strickland, Judy; Zang, Qingda; Kleinstreuer, Nicole; Paris, Michael; Lehmann, David M; Choksi, Neepa; Matheson, Joanna; Jacobs, Abigail; Lowit, Anna; Allen, David; Casey, Warren

2016-09-01

One of the top priorities of the Interagency Coordinating Committee for the Validation of Alternative Methods (ICCVAM) is the identification and evaluation of non-animal alternatives for skin sensitization testing. Although skin sensitization is a complex process, the key biological events of the process have been well characterized in an adverse outcome pathway (AOP) proposed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Accordingly, ICCVAM is working to develop integrated decision strategies based on the AOP using in vitro, in chemico and in silico information. Data were compiled for 120 substances tested in the murine local lymph node assay (LLNA), direct peptide reactivity assay (DPRA), human cell line activation test (h-CLAT) and KeratinoSens assay. Data for six physicochemical properties, which may affect skin penetration, were also collected, and skin sensitization read-across predictions were performed using OECD QSAR Toolbox. All data were combined into a variety of potential integrated decision strategies to predict LLNA outcomes using a training set of 94 substances and an external test set of 26 substances. Fifty-four models were built using multiple combinations of machine learning approaches and predictor variables. The seven models with the highest accuracy (89-96% for the test set and 96-99% for the training set) for predicting LLNA outcomes used a support vector machine (SVM) approach with different combinations of predictor variables. The performance statistics of the SVM models were higher than any of the non-animal tests alone and higher than simple test battery approaches using these methods. These data suggest that computational approaches are promising tools to effectively integrate data sources to identify potential skin sensitizers without animal testing. Published 2016. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2016. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

An evaluation in a modern wind tunnel of the transonic adaptive wall adjustment strategy developed by NPL in the 1940's

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lewis, M. C.

1988-01-01

The first documented wind tunnel employing a flexible walled test section for the purpose of eliminating wall interference was constructed in England by the National Physical Laboratory (NPL) during the late 1930's. The tunnel was transonic and designed for two-dimensional testing. In an attempt to eliminate the top and bottom wall interference effects on the model NPL developed a strategy to adjust two flexible walls to streamlined shapes. This report covers an evaluation of the NPL wall adjustment strategy in a modern wind tunnel, e.g., the Transonic Self-Streamlining Wind Tunnel (TSWT) at the University of Southampton, England. The evaluation took the form of performance comparisons with other modern strategies which have been developed for use in, and proven in, the TSWT.

A Successful Application of Latent Trait Theory to Tailored Achievement Testing.

DTIC Science & Technology

1980-02-01

strategy for achieve- ment test batteries (Research Report 77-6). Minneapolis: University of Minnesota, Department of Psychology , Psychometric Methods...trait models to tailored testing (Research Report 79-1). Columbia: Uni- versity of Missouri, Department of Educational Psychology , 1979. Lord, F. M. A... Psychology Psychometric Research Group Kawauchi, Sendai 980 Educational Testing Service JAPAN Princeton, NJ 08541 Dr. Edwin Shirkey 1 Dr. Kikui

The accuracy and cost-effectiveness of strategies used to identify peripheral artery disease among patients with diabetic foot ulcers.

PubMed

Barshes, Neal R; Flores, Everardo; Belkin, Michael; Kougias, Panos; Armstrong, David G; Mills, Joseph L

2016-12-01

Patients with diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs) should be evaluated for peripheral artery disease (PAD). We sought to estimate the overall diagnostic accuracy for various strategies that are used to identify PAD in this population. A Markov model with probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses was used to simulate the clinical events in a population of 10,000 patients with diabetes. One of 14 different diagnostic strategies was applied to those who developed DFUs. Baseline data on diagnostic accuracy of individual noninvasive tests were based on a meta-analysis of previously reported studies. The overall sensitivity and cost-effectiveness of the 14 strategies were then compared. The overall sensitivity of various combinations of diagnostic testing strategies ranged from 32.6% to 92.6%. Cost-effective strategies included ankle-brachial indices for all patients; skin perfusion pressures (SPPs) or toe-brachial indices (TBIs) for all patients; and SPPs or TBIs to corroborate normal pulse examination findings, a strategy that lowered leg amputation rates by 36%. Strategies that used noninvasive vascular testing to investigate only abnormal pulse examination results had low overall diagnostic sensitivity and were weakly dominated in cost-effectiveness evaluations. Population prevalence of PAD did not alter strategy ordering by diagnostic accuracy or cost-effectiveness. TBIs or SPPs used uniformly or to corroborate a normal pulse examination finding are among the most sensitive and cost-effective strategies to improve the identification of PAD among patients presenting with DFUs. These strategies may significantly reduce leg amputation rates with only modest increases in cost. Published by Elsevier Inc.

CON4EI: Evaluation of QSAR models for hazard identification and labelling of eye irritating chemicals.

PubMed

Geerts, L; Adriaens, E; Alépée, N; Guest, R; Willoughby, J A; Kandarova, H; Drzewiecka, A; Fochtman, P; Verstraelen, S; Van Rompay, A R

2018-06-01

Assessment of ocular irritation is a regulatory requirement in safety evaluation of industrial and consumer products. Although a number of in vitro ocular irritation assays exist, none are capable of fully categorizing chemicals as stand-alone assays. Therefore, the CEFIC-LRI-AIMT6-VITO CON4EI (CONsortium for in vitro Eye Irritation testing strategy) project was developed to assess the reliability of eight in vitro test methods and computational models as well as establishing an optimal tiered-testing strategy. For three computational models (Toxtree, and Case Ultra EYE_DRAIZE and EYE_IRR) performance parameters were calculated. Coverage ranged from 15 to 58%. Coverage was 2 to 3.4 times higher for liquids than for solids. The lowest number of false positives (5%) was reached with EYE_IRR; this model however also gave a high number of false negatives (46%). The lowest number of false negatives (25%) was seen with Toxtree; for liquids Toxtree predicted the lowest number of false negatives (11%), for solids EYE_DRAIZE did (17%). It can be concluded that the training sets should be enlarged with high quality data. The tested models are not yet sufficiently powerful for stand-alone evaluations, but that they can surely become of value in an integrated weight-of-evidence approach in hazard assessment. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of using a gene expression profiling test to aid in identifying the primary tumour in patients with cancer of unknown primary.

PubMed

Hannouf, M B; Winquist, E; Mahmud, S M; Brackstone, M; Sarma, S; Rodrigues, G; Rogan, P; Hoch, J S; Zaric, G S

2017-06-01

We aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of a 2000-gene-expression profiling (GEP) test to help identify the primary tumor site when clinicopathological diagnostic evaluation was inconclusive in patients with cancer of unknown primary (CUP). We built a decision-analytic-model to project the lifetime clinical and economic consequences of different clinical management strategies for CUP. The model was parameterized using follow-up data from the Manitoba Cancer Registry, cost data from Manitoba Health administrative databases and secondary sources. The 2000-GEP-based strategy compared to current clinical practice resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of $44,151 per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained. The total annual-budget impact was $36.2 million per year. A value-of-information analysis revealed that the expected value of perfect information about the test's clinical impact was $4.2 million per year. The 2000-GEP test should be considered for adoption in CUP. Field evaluations of the test are associated with a large societal benefit.

Mathematical Learning Models that Depend on Prior Knowledge and Instructional Strategies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pritchard, David E.; Lee, Young-Jin; Bao, Lei

2008-01-01

We present mathematical learning models--predictions of student's knowledge vs amount of instruction--that are based on assumptions motivated by various theories of learning: tabula rasa, constructivist, and tutoring. These models predict the improvement (on the post-test) as a function of the pretest score due to intervening instruction and also…

Modeling Distributions of Immediate Memory Effects: No Strategies Needed?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beaman, C. Philip; Neath, Ian; Surprenant, Aimee M.

2008-01-01

Many models of immediate memory predict the presence or absence of various effects, but none have been tested to see whether they predict an appropriate distribution of effect sizes. The authors show that the feature model (J. S. Nairne, 1990) produces appropriate distributions of effect sizes for both the phonological confusion effect and the…

Refining Uses and Gratifications with a Human Information Processing Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Griffin, Robert J.

A study was conducted as part of a program to develop and test an individual level communications model. The model proposes that audience members bring to communications situations a set of learned cognitive processing strategies that produce cognitive structural representations of information in memory to facilitate the meeting of the various…

Applying the cell-based coagulation model in the management of critical bleeding.

PubMed

Ho, K M; Pavey, W

2017-03-01

The cell-based coagulation model was proposed 15 years ago, yet has not been applied commonly in the management of critical bleeding. Nevertheless, this alternative model may better explain the physiological basis of current coagulation management during critical bleeding. In this article we describe the limitations of the traditional coagulation protein cascade and standard coagulation tests, and explain the potential advantages of applying the cell-based model in current coagulation management strategies. The cell-based coagulation model builds on the traditional coagulation model and explains many recent clinical observations and research findings related to critical bleeding unexplained by the traditional model, including the encouraging results of using empirical 1:1:1 fresh frozen plasma:platelets:red blood cells transfusion strategy, and the use of viscoelastic and platelet function tests in patients with critical bleeding. From a practical perspective, applying the cell-based coagulation model also explains why new direct oral anticoagulants are effective systemic anticoagulants even without affecting activated partial thromboplastin time or the International Normalized Ratio in a dose-related fashion. The cell-based coagulation model represents the most cohesive scientific framework on which we can understand and manage coagulation during critical bleeding.

Modeling Reproductive Toxicity for Chemical Prioritization into an Integrated Testing Strategy

EPA Science Inventory

The EPA ToxCast research program uses a high-throughput screening (HTS) approach for predicting the toxicity of large numbers of chemicals. Phase-I tested 309 well-characterized chemicals in over 500 assays of different molecular targets, cellular responses and cell-states. Of th...

A Practical Strategy for sEMG-Based Knee Joint Moment Estimation During Gait and Its Validation in Individuals With Cerebral Palsy

PubMed Central

Kwon, Suncheol; Stanley, Christopher J.; Kim, Jung; Kim, Jonghyun; Damiano, Diane L.

2013-01-01

Individuals with cerebral palsy have neurological deficits that may interfere with motor function and lead to abnormal walking patterns. It is important to know the joint moment generated by the patient’s muscles during walking in order to assist the suboptimal gait patterns. In this paper, we describe a practical strategy for estimating the internal moment of a knee joint from surface electromyography (sEMG) and knee joint angle measurements. This strategy requires only isokinetic knee flexion and extension tests to obtain a relationship between the sEMG and the knee internal moment, and it does not necessitate comprehensive laboratory calibration, which typically requires a 3-D motion capture system and ground reaction force plates. Four estimation models were considered based on different assumptions about the functions of the relevant muscles during the isokinetic tests and the stance phase of walking. The performance of the four models was evaluated by comparing the estimated moments with the gold standard internal moment calculated from inverse dynamics. The results indicate that an optimal estimation model can be chosen based on the degree of cocontraction. The estimation error of the chosen model is acceptable (normalized root-mean-squared error: 0.15–0.29, R: 0.71–0.93) compared to previous studies (Doorenbosch and Harlaar, 2003; Doorenbosch and Harlaar, 2004; Doorenbosch, Joosten, and Harlaar, 2005), and this strategy provides a simple and effective solution for estimating knee joint moment from sEMG. PMID:22410952

How to get the most bang for your buck: the evolution and physiology of nutrition-dependent resource allocation strategies.

PubMed

Ng'oma, Enoch; Perinchery, Anna M; King, Elizabeth G

2017-06-28

All organisms use resources to grow, survive and reproduce. The supply of these resources varies widely across landscapes and time, imposing ultimate constraints on the maximal trait values for allocation-related traits. In this review, we address three key questions fundamental to our understanding of the evolution of allocation strategies and their underlying mechanisms. First, we ask: how diverse are flexible resource allocation strategies among different organisms? We find there are many, varied, examples of flexible strategies that depend on nutrition. However, this diversity is often ignored in some of the best-known cases of resource allocation shifts, such as the commonly observed pattern of lifespan extension under nutrient limitation. A greater appreciation of the wide variety of flexible allocation strategies leads directly to our second major question: what conditions select for different plastic allocation strategies? Here, we highlight the need for additional models that explicitly consider the evolution of phenotypically plastic allocation strategies and empirical tests of the predictions of those models in natural populations. Finally, we consider the question: what are the underlying mechanisms determining resource allocation strategies? Although evolutionary biologists assume differential allocation of resources is a major factor limiting trait evolution, few proximate mechanisms are known that specifically support the model. We argue that an integrated framework can reconcile evolutionary models with proximate mechanisms that appear at first glance to be in conflict with these models. Overall, we encourage future studies to: (i) mimic ecological conditions in which those patterns evolve, and (ii) take advantage of the 'omic' opportunities to produce multi-level data and analytical models that effectively integrate across physiological and evolutionary theory. © 2017 The Author(s).

How to get the most bang for your buck: the evolution and physiology of nutrition-dependent resource allocation strategies

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

All organisms use resources to grow, survive and reproduce. The supply of these resources varies widely across landscapes and time, imposing ultimate constraints on the maximal trait values for allocation-related traits. In this review, we address three key questions fundamental to our understanding of the evolution of allocation strategies and their underlying mechanisms. First, we ask: how diverse are flexible resource allocation strategies among different organisms? We find there are many, varied, examples of flexible strategies that depend on nutrition. However, this diversity is often ignored in some of the best-known cases of resource allocation shifts, such as the commonly observed pattern of lifespan extension under nutrient limitation. A greater appreciation of the wide variety of flexible allocation strategies leads directly to our second major question: what conditions select for different plastic allocation strategies? Here, we highlight the need for additional models that explicitly consider the evolution of phenotypically plastic allocation strategies and empirical tests of the predictions of those models in natural populations. Finally, we consider the question: what are the underlying mechanisms determining resource allocation strategies? Although evolutionary biologists assume differential allocation of resources is a major factor limiting trait evolution, few proximate mechanisms are known that specifically support the model. We argue that an integrated framework can reconcile evolutionary models with proximate mechanisms that appear at first glance to be in conflict with these models. Overall, we encourage future studies to: (i) mimic ecological conditions in which those patterns evolve, and (ii) take advantage of the ‘omic’ opportunities to produce multi-level data and analytical models that effectively integrate across physiological and evolutionary theory. PMID:28637856

Control of African swine fever epidemics in industrialized swine populations.

PubMed

Halasa, Tariq; Bøtner, Anette; Mortensen, Sten; Christensen, Hanne; Toft, Nils; Boklund, Anette

2016-12-25

African swine fever (ASF) is a notifiable infectious disease with a high impact on swine health. The disease is endemic in certain regions in the Baltic countries and has spread to Poland constituting a risk of ASF spread toward Western Europe. Therefore, as part of contingency planning, it is important to explore strategies that can effectively control an epidemic of ASF. In this study, the epidemiological and economic effects of strategies to control the spread of ASF between domestic swine herds were examined using a published model (DTU-DADS-ASF). The control strategies were the basic EU and national strategy (Basic), the basic strategy plus pre-emptive depopulation of neighboring swine herds, and intensive surveillance of herds in the control zones, including testing live or dead animals. Virus spread via wild boar was not modelled. Under the basic control strategy, the median epidemic duration was predicted to be 21days (5th and 95th percentiles; 1-55days), the median number of infected herds was predicted to be 3 herds (1-8), and the total costs were predicted to be €326 million (€256-€442 million). Adding pre-emptive depopulation or intensive surveillance by testing live animals resulted in marginal improvements to the control of the epidemics. However, adding testing of dead animals in the protection and surveillance zones was predicted to be the optimal control scenario for an ASF epidemic in industrialized swine populations without contact to wild boar. This optimal scenario reduced the epidemic duration to 9days (1-38) and the total costs to €294 million (€257-€392 million). Export losses were the driving force of the total costs of the epidemics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A system dynamics approach to analyze laboratory test errors.

PubMed

Guo, Shijing; Roudsari, Abdul; Garcez, Artur d'Avila

2015-01-01

Although many researches have been carried out to analyze laboratory test errors during the last decade, it still lacks a systemic view of study, especially to trace errors during test process and evaluate potential interventions. This study implements system dynamics modeling into laboratory errors to trace the laboratory error flows and to simulate the system behaviors while changing internal variable values. The change of the variables may reflect a change in demand or a proposed intervention. A review of literature on laboratory test errors was given and provided as the main data source for the system dynamics model. Three "what if" scenarios were selected for testing the model. System behaviors were observed and compared under different scenarios over a period of time. The results suggest system dynamics modeling has potential effectiveness of helping to understand laboratory errors, observe model behaviours, and provide a risk-free simulation experiments for possible strategies.

Action perception as hypothesis testing.

PubMed

Donnarumma, Francesco; Costantini, Marcello; Ambrosini, Ettore; Friston, Karl; Pezzulo, Giovanni

2017-04-01

We present a novel computational model that describes action perception as an active inferential process that combines motor prediction (the reuse of our own motor system to predict perceived movements) and hypothesis testing (the use of eye movements to disambiguate amongst hypotheses). The system uses a generative model of how (arm and hand) actions are performed to generate hypothesis-specific visual predictions, and directs saccades to the most informative places of the visual scene to test these predictions - and underlying hypotheses. We test the model using eye movement data from a human action observation study. In both the human study and our model, saccades are proactive whenever context affords accurate action prediction; but uncertainty induces a more reactive gaze strategy, via tracking the observed movements. Our model offers a novel perspective on action observation that highlights its active nature based on prediction dynamics and hypothesis testing. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Finite element analysis of steady and transiently moving/rolling nonlinear viscoelastic structure. II - Shell and three-dimensional simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kennedy, Ronald; Padovan, Joe

1987-01-01

In a three-part series of papers, a generalized finite element solution strategy is developed to handle traveling load problems in rolling, moving and rotating structure. The main thrust of this section consists of the development of three-dimensional and shell type moving elements. In conjunction with this work, a compatible three-dimensional contact strategy is also developed. Based on these modeling capabilities, extensive analytical and experimental benchmarking is presented. Such testing includes traveling loads in rotating structure as well as low- and high-speed rolling contact involving standing wave-type response behavior. These point to the excellent modeling capabilities of moving element strategies.

Translation and cultural adaptation for Brazil of the Developing Nurses' Thinking model1

PubMed Central

Jensen, Rodrigo; da Cruz, Diná de Almeida Lopes Monteiro; Tesoro, Mary Gay; Lopes, Maria Helena Baena de Moraes

2014-01-01

Objectives to translate and culturally adapt to Brazilian Portuguese the Developing Nurses' Thinking model, used as a strategy for teaching clinical reasoning. Method the translation and cultural adaptation were undertaken through initial translation, synthesis of the translations, back-translation, evaluation by a committee of specialists and a pre-test with 33 undergraduate nursing students. Results the stages of initial translation, synthesis of the translations and back-translation were undertaken satisfactorily, small adjustments being needed. In the evaluation of the translated version by the committee of specialists, all the items obtained agreement over 80% in the first round of evaluation and in the pre-test with the students, so the model was shown to be fit for purpose. Conclusion the use of the model as a complementary strategy in the teaching of diagnostic reasoning is recommended, with a view to the training of nurses who are more aware regarding the diagnostic task and the importance of patient safety. PMID:26107825

[Decision tree and cost-benefit analysis on strategies related to preventing maternal-infantile transmission of hepatitis B virus infection].

PubMed

Shi, Guo; Zhang, Shun-xiang

2013-03-01

To synthesize relevant data and to analyze the benefit-cost ratio on strategies related to preventing the maternal-infantile transmission of hepatitis B virus infection and to explore the optimal strategy. A decision tree model was constructed according to the strategies of hepatitis B immunization and a Markov model was conducted to simulate the complex disease progress after HBV infection. Parameters in the models were drawn from meta-analysis and information was collected from field study and review of literature. Economic evaluation was performed to calculate costs, benefit, and the benefit-cost ratio. Sensitivity analysis was also conducted and a tornado graph was drawn. In view of the current six possible strategies in preventing maternal-infantile transmission of hepatitis B virus infection, a multi-stage decision tree model was constructed to screen hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) or screen for HBsAg then hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg). Dose and the number of injections of HBIG and hepatitis B vaccine were taken into consideration in the model. All the strategies were considered to be cost-saving, while the strategy of screening for HBsAg and then offering hepatitis B vaccine of 10 µg×3 for all neonates with hepatitis B immunoglobulin (HBIG) of 100 IU×1 for the neonates born to mothers who tested positive for HBsAg appeared with most cost-saving. In the strategies, the benefit-cost ratio of using 100 IU HBIG was similar to 200 IU HBIG, and one shot of HBIG was superior to two shots. from sensitivity analysis suggested that the rates of immunization and the efficacy of the strategy in preventing maternal-infantile transmission were the main sensitive variables in the model. The passive-active immune-prophylaxis strategy that using 10 µg hepatitis B vaccine combined with 100 IU HBIG seemed to be the optimal strategy in preventing maternal-infantile transmission, while the rates of immunization and the efficacy of the strategy played the key roles in choosing the ideal strategy.

Trade-offs in Cervical Cancer Prevention: Balancing Benefits and Risks

PubMed Central

Stout, Natasha K.; Goldhaber-Fiebert, Jeremy D.; Ortendahl, Jesse D.; Goldie, Sue J.

2009-01-01

Background New screening and vaccination technologies will provide women with more options for cervical cancer prevention. Because the risk of cervical cancer diminishes with effective routine screening, women may wish to consider additional attributes, such as the likelihood of false-positive results and diagnostic procedures for mild abnormalities likely to resolve without intervention in their screening choices. Methods We used an empirically calibrated simulation model of cervical cancer in the United States to assess the benefits and potential risks associated with prevention strategies differing by primary screening test, triage test for abnormal results (cytologic testing, human papillomavirus [HPV] DNA test), and screening frequency. Outcomes included colposcopy referrals, cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) types 1 and 2 or 3, lifetime cancer risk, and quality-adjusted life expectancy. Results Across strategies, colposcopy referrals and diagnostic workups varied 3-fold, although diagnostic rates of CIN 2 or 3 were similar and 95% of positive screening test results were for mild abnormalities likely to resolve on their own. For a representative group of a thousand 20-year-old women undergoing triennial screening for 10 years, we expect 1038 colposcopy referrals (7 CIN 2 or 3 diagnoses) from combined cytologic and HPV DNA testing and fewer than 200 referrals (6–7 CIN 2 or 3 diagnoses) for strategies that use triage testing. Similarly, for a thousand 40-year-old women, combined cytologic and HPV DNA testing led to 489 referrals (9 CIN 2 or 3), whereas alternative strategies resulted in fewer than 150 referrals (7–8 CIN 2 or 3). Using cytologic testing followed by triage testing in younger women minimizes both diagnostic workups and positive HPV test results, whereas in older women diagnostic workups are minimized with HPV DNA testing followed by cytologic triage testing. Conclusions Clinically relevant information highlighting trade-offs among cervical cancer prevention strategies allows for inclusion of personal preferences into women’s decision making about screening and provides additional dimensions to the construction of clinical guidelines. PMID:18809815

Identifying optimum performance trade-offs using a cognitively bounded rational analysis model of discretionary task interleaving.

PubMed

Janssen, Christian P; Brumby, Duncan P; Dowell, John; Chater, Nick; Howes, Andrew

2011-01-01

We report the results of a dual-task study in which participants performed a tracking and typing task under various experimental conditions. An objective payoff function was used to provide explicit feedback on how participants should trade off performance between the tasks. Results show that participants' dual-task interleaving strategy was sensitive to changes in the difficulty of the tracking task and resulted in differences in overall task performance. To test the hypothesis that people select strategies that maximize payoff, a Cognitively Bounded Rational Analysis model was developed. This analysis evaluated a variety of dual-task interleaving strategies to identify the optimal strategy for maximizing payoff in each condition. The model predicts that the region of optimum performance is different between experimental conditions. The correspondence between human data and the prediction of the optimal strategy is found to be remarkably high across a number of performance measures. This suggests that participants were honing their behavior to maximize payoff. Limitations are discussed. Copyright © 2011 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Cost-Effectiveness of HBV and HCV Screening Strategies – A Systematic Review of Existing Modelling Techniques

PubMed Central

Geue, Claudia; Wu, Olivia; Xin, Yiqiao; Heggie, Robert; Hutchinson, Sharon; Martin, Natasha K.; Fenwick, Elisabeth; Goldberg, David

2015-01-01

Introduction Studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of screening for Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and Hepatitis C Virus (HCV) are generally heterogeneous in terms of risk groups, settings, screening intervention, outcomes and the economic modelling framework. It is therefore difficult to compare cost-effectiveness results between studies. This systematic review aims to summarise and critically assess existing economic models for HBV and HCV in order to identify the main methodological differences in modelling approaches. Methods A structured search strategy was developed and a systematic review carried out. A critical assessment of the decision-analytic models was carried out according to the guidelines and framework developed for assessment of decision-analytic models in Health Technology Assessment of health care interventions. Results The overall approach to analysing the cost-effectiveness of screening strategies was found to be broadly consistent for HBV and HCV. However, modelling parameters and related structure differed between models, producing different results. More recent publications performed better against a performance matrix, evaluating model components and methodology. Conclusion When assessing screening strategies for HBV and HCV infection, the focus should be on more recent studies, which applied the latest treatment regimes, test methods and had better and more complete data on which to base their models. In addition to parameter selection and associated assumptions, careful consideration of dynamic versus static modelling is recommended. Future research may want to focus on these methodological issues. In addition, the ability to evaluate screening strategies for multiple infectious diseases, (HCV and HIV at the same time) might prove important for decision makers. PMID:26689908

Evaluation of non-animal methods for assessing skin sensitisation hazard: A Bayesian Value-of-Information analysis.

PubMed

Leontaridou, Maria; Gabbert, Silke; Van Ierland, Ekko C; Worth, Andrew P; Landsiedel, Robert

2016-07-01

This paper offers a Bayesian Value-of-Information (VOI) analysis for guiding the development of non-animal testing strategies, balancing information gains from testing with the expected social gains and costs from the adoption of regulatory decisions. Testing is assumed to have value, if, and only if, the information revealed from testing triggers a welfare-improving decision on the use (or non-use) of a substance. As an illustration, our VOI model is applied to a set of five individual non-animal prediction methods used for skin sensitisation hazard assessment, seven battery combinations of these methods, and 236 sequential 2-test and 3-test strategies. Their expected values are quantified and compared to the expected value of the local lymph node assay (LLNA) as the animal method. We find that battery and sequential combinations of non-animal prediction methods reveal a significantly higher expected value than the LLNA. This holds for the entire range of prior beliefs. Furthermore, our results illustrate that the testing strategy with the highest expected value does not necessarily have to follow the order of key events in the sensitisation adverse outcome pathway (AOP). 2016 FRAME.

"Therapeutic" Interventions of Clinicians in Standardized Interviews: A Test of the Social Competition Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, John D.; And Others

1973-01-01

Describes experiment which tests and supports a social competition hypothesis in clinical intervention, suggesting that patient behavior is determined by clinician interview strategies which reflect their impressions of patient characteristics but are, in reality, a reflection of their own interview behavior. (Author/CJ)

Testing Adaptive Toolbox Models: A Bayesian Hierarchical Approach

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; Rieskamp, Jorg; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2013-01-01

Many theories of human cognition postulate that people are equipped with a repertoire of strategies to solve the tasks they face. This theoretical framework of a cognitive toolbox provides a plausible account of intra- and interindividual differences in human behavior. Unfortunately, it is often unclear how to rigorously test the toolbox…

Ensemble of surrogates-based optimization for identifying an optimal surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation strategy at heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Xue; Lu, Wenxi; Hou, Zeyu; Zhao, Haiqing; Na, Jin

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to identify an optimal surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) strategy for aquifers contaminated by dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) based on an ensemble of surrogates-based optimization technique. A saturated heterogeneous medium contaminated by nitrobenzene was selected as case study. A new kind of surrogate-based SEAR optimization employing an ensemble surrogate (ES) model together with a genetic algorithm (GA) is presented. Four methods, namely radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), kriging (KRG), support vector regression (SVR), and kernel extreme learning machines (KELM), were used to create four individual surrogate models, which were then compared. The comparison enabled us to select the two most accurate models (KELM and KRG) to establish an ES model of the SEAR simulation model, and the developed ES model as well as these four stand-alone surrogate models was compared. The results showed that the average relative error of the average nitrobenzene removal rates between the ES model and the simulation model for 20 test samples was 0.8%, which is a high approximation accuracy, and which indicates that the ES model provides more accurate predictions than the stand-alone surrogate models. Then, a nonlinear optimization model was formulated for the minimum cost, and the developed ES model was embedded into this optimization model as a constrained condition. Besides, GA was used to solve the optimization model to provide the optimal SEAR strategy. The developed ensemble surrogate-optimization approach was effective in seeking a cost-effective SEAR strategy for heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated sites. This research is expected to enrich and develop the theoretical and technical implications for the analysis of remediation strategy optimization of DNAPL-contaminated aquifers.

Ensemble of Surrogates-based Optimization for Identifying an Optimal Surfactant-enhanced Aquifer Remediation Strategy at Heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated Sites

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lu, W., Sr.; Xin, X.; Luo, J.; Jiang, X.; Zhang, Y.; Zhao, Y.; Chen, M.; Hou, Z.; Ouyang, Q.

2015-12-01

The purpose of this study was to identify an optimal surfactant-enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) strategy for aquifers contaminated by dense non-aqueous phase liquid (DNAPL) based on an ensemble of surrogates-based optimization technique. A saturated heterogeneous medium contaminated by nitrobenzene was selected as case study. A new kind of surrogate-based SEAR optimization employing an ensemble surrogate (ES) model together with a genetic algorithm (GA) is presented. Four methods, namely radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), kriging (KRG), support vector regression (SVR), and kernel extreme learning machines (KELM), were used to create four individual surrogate models, which were then compared. The comparison enabled us to select the two most accurate models (KELM and KRG) to establish an ES model of the SEAR simulation model, and the developed ES model as well as these four stand-alone surrogate models was compared. The results showed that the average relative error of the average nitrobenzene removal rates between the ES model and the simulation model for 20 test samples was 0.8%, which is a high approximation accuracy, and which indicates that the ES model provides more accurate predictions than the stand-alone surrogate models. Then, a nonlinear optimization model was formulated for the minimum cost, and the developed ES model was embedded into this optimization model as a constrained condition. Besides, GA was used to solve the optimization model to provide the optimal SEAR strategy. The developed ensemble surrogate-optimization approach was effective in seeking a cost-effective SEAR strategy for heterogeneous DNAPL-contaminated sites. This research is expected to enrich and develop the theoretical and technical implications for the analysis of remediation strategy optimization of DNAPL-contaminated aquifers.

Beware of Kinked Frontiers: A Systematic Review of the Choice of Comparator Strategies in Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Human Papillomavirus Testing in Cervical Screening.

PubMed

O'Mahony, James F; Naber, Steffie K; Normand, Charles; Sharp, Linda; O'Leary, John J; de Kok, Inge M C M

2015-12-01

To systematically review the choice of comparator strategies in cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) of human papillomavirus testing in cervical screening. The PubMed, Web of Knowledge, and Scopus databases were searched to identify eligible model-based CEAs of cervical screening programs using human papillomavirus testing. The eligible CEAs were reviewed to investigate what screening strategies were chosen for analysis and how this choice might have influenced estimates of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Selected examples from the reviewed studies are presented to illustrate how the omission of relevant comparators might influence estimates of screening cost-effectiveness. The search identified 30 eligible CEAs. The omission of relevant comparator strategies appears likely in 18 studies. The ICER estimates in these cases are probably lower than would be estimated had more comparators been included. Five of the 30 studies restricted relevant comparator strategies to sensitivity analyses or other subanalyses not part of the principal base-case analysis. Such exclusion of relevant strategies from the base-case analysis can result in cost-ineffective strategies being identified as cost-effective. Many of the CEAs reviewed appear to include insufficient comparator strategies. In particular, they omit strategies with relatively long screening intervals. Omitting relevant comparators matters particularly if it leads to the underestimation of ICERs for strategies around the cost-effectiveness threshold because these strategies are the most policy relevant from the CEA perspective. Consequently, such CEAs may not be providing the best possible policy guidance and lead to the mistaken adoption of cost-ineffective screening strategies. Copyright © 2015 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experiments in advanced control concepts for space robotics - An overview of the Stanford Aerospace Robotics Laboratory

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollars, M. G.; Cannon, R. H., Jr.; Alexander, H. L.; Morse, D. F.

1987-01-01

The Stanford University Aerospace Robotics Laboratory is actively developing and experimentally testing advanced robot control strategies for space robotic applications. Early experiments focused on control of very lightweight one-link manipulators and other flexible structures. The results are being extended to position and force control of mini-manipulators attached to flexible manipulators and multilink manipulators with flexible drive trains. Experimental results show that end-point sensing and careful dynamic modeling or adaptive control are key to the success of these control strategies. Free-flying space robot simulators that operate on an air cushion table have been built to test control strategies in which the dynamics of the base of the robot and the payload are important.

Culturally Specific Youth Substance Abuse Resistance Skills: Applicability across the U.S.-Mexico Border

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marsiglia, Flavio F.; Kulis, Stephen; Rodriguez, Gregorio Martinez; Becerra, David; Castillo, Jason

2009-01-01

This article reports on the prevalence and frequency of use of a set of drug-resistance strategies among a sample of Mexican adolescents. The keepin' it REAL (refuse, explain, avoid, and leave) strategies are part of a model drug-prevention intervention program originally developed by and for youth in the United States. The present study tests the…

The Effectiveness of Interactive Computer Assisted Modeling in Teaching Study Strategies and Concept Mapping of College Textbook Material.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mikulecky, Larry

A study evaluated the effectiveness of a series of print materials and interactive computer-guided study programs designed to lead undergraduate students to apply basic textbook reading and concept mapping strategies to the study of science and social science textbooks. Following field testing with 25 learning skills students, 50 freshman biology…

Genome-scale model guided design of Propionibacterium for enhanced propionic acid production.

PubMed

Navone, Laura; McCubbin, Tim; Gonzalez-Garcia, Ricardo A; Nielsen, Lars K; Marcellin, Esteban

2018-06-01

Production of propionic acid by fermentation of propionibacteria has gained increasing attention in the past few years. However, biomanufacturing of propionic acid cannot compete with the current oxo-petrochemical synthesis process due to its well-established infrastructure, low oil prices and the high downstream purification costs of microbial production. Strain improvement to increase propionic acid yield is the best alternative to reduce downstream purification costs. The recent generation of genome-scale models for a number of Propionibacterium species facilitates the rational design of metabolic engineering strategies and provides a new opportunity to explore the metabolic potential of the Wood-Werkman cycle. Previous strategies for strain improvement have individually targeted acid tolerance, rate of propionate production or minimisation of by-products. Here we used the P. freudenreichii subsp . shermanii and the pan- Propionibacterium genome-scale metabolic models (GEMs) to simultaneously target these combined issues. This was achieved by focussing on strategies which yield higher energies and directly suppress acetate formation. Using P. freudenreichii subsp . shermanii , two strategies were assessed. The first tested the ability to manipulate the redox balance to favour propionate production by over-expressing the first two enzymes of the pentose-phosphate pathway (PPP), Zwf (glucose-6-phosphate 1-dehydrogenase) and Pgl (6-phosphogluconolactonase). Results showed a 4-fold increase in propionate to acetate ratio during the exponential growth phase. Secondly, the ability to enhance the energy yield from propionate production by over-expressing an ATP-dependent phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (PEPCK) and sodium-pumping methylmalonyl-CoA decarboxylase (MMD) was tested, which extended the exponential growth phase. Together, these strategies demonstrate that in silico design strategies are predictive and can be used to reduce by-product formation in Propionibacterium . We also describe the benefit of carbon dioxide to propionibacteria growth, substrate conversion and propionate yield.

Optimum allocation of test resources and comparison of breeding strategies for hybrid wheat.

PubMed

Longin, C Friedrich H; Mi, Xuefei; Melchinger, Albrecht E; Reif, Jochen C; Würschum, Tobias

2014-10-01

The use of a breeding strategy combining the evaluation of line per se with testcross performance maximizes annual selection gain for hybrid wheat breeding. Recent experimental studies confirmed a high commercial potential for hybrid wheat requiring the design of optimum breeding strategies. Our objectives were to (1) determine the optimum allocation of the type and number of testers, the number of test locations and the number of doubled haploid lines for different breeding strategies, (2) identify the best breeding strategy and (3) elaborate key parameters for an efficient hybrid wheat breeding program. We performed model calculations using the selection gain for grain yield as target variable to optimize the number of lines, testers and test locations in four different breeding strategies. A breeding strategy (BS2) combining the evaluation of line per se performance and general combining ability (GCA) had a far larger annual selection gain across all considered scenarios than a breeding strategy (BS1) focusing only on GCA. In the combined strategy, the production of testcross seed conducted in parallel with the first yield trial for line per se performance (BS2rapid) resulted in a further increase of the annual selection gain. For the current situation in hybrid wheat, this relative superiority of the strategy BS2rapid amounted to 67 % in annual selection gain compared to BS1. Varying a large number of parameters, we identified the high costs for hybrid seed production and the low variance of GCA in hybrid wheat breeding as key parameters limiting selection gain in BS2rapid.

Costs and clinical outcomes for non-invasive versus invasive diagnostic approaches to patients with suspected in-stent restenosis.

PubMed

Min, James K; Hasegawa, James T; Machacz, Susanne F; O'Day, Ken

2016-02-01

This study compared costs and clinical outcomes of invasive versus non-invasive diagnostic evaluations for patients with suspected in-stent restenosis (ISR) after percutaneous coronary intervention. We developed a decision model to compare 2 year diagnosis-related costs for patients who presented with suspected ISR and were evaluated by: (1) invasive coronary angiography (ICA); (2) non-invasive stress testing strategy of myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI) with referral to ICA based on MPI; (3) coronary CT angiography-based testing strategy with referral to ICA based on CCTA. Costs were modeled from the payer's perspective using 2014 Medicare rates. 56 % of patients underwent follow-up diagnostic testing over 2 years. Compared to ICA, MPI (98.6 %) and CCTA (98.1 %) exhibited lower rates of correct diagnoses. Non-invasive strategies were associated with reduced referrals to ICA and costs compared to an ICA-based strategy, with diagnostic costs lower for CCTA than MPI. Overall 2-year costs were highest for ICA for both metallic as well as BVS stents ($1656 and $1656, respectively) when compared to MPI ($1444 and $1411) and CCTA. CCTA costs differed based upon stent size and type, and were highest for metallic stents >3.0 mm followed by metallic stents <3.0 mm, BVS < 3.0 mm and BVS > 3.0 mm ($1466 vs. $1242 vs. $855 vs. $490, respectively). MPI for suspected ISR results in lower costs and rates of complications than invasive strategies using ICA while maintaining high diagnostic performance. Depending upon stent size and type, CCTA results in lower costs than MPI.

Analysis of strategies to increase external fixator stiffness: is double stacking worth the cost?

PubMed

Strebe, Sara; Kim, Hyunchul; Russell, Joseph P; Hsieh, Adam H; Nascone, Jason; O'Toole, Robert V

2014-07-01

We compared the mechanical benefits and costs of 3 strategies that are commonly used to increase knee-spanning external fixator stiffness (resistance to deformation): double stacking, cross-linking, and use of an oblique pin. At our academic trauma centre and biomechanical testing laboratory, we used ultra-high-molecular-weight polyethylene bone models and commercially available external fixator components to simulate knee-spanning external fixation. The models were tested in anterior-posterior bending, medial-lateral bending, axial compression, and torsion. We recorded the construct stiffness for each strategy in all loading modes and assessed a secondary outcome of cost per 10% increase in stiffness. Double stacking significantly increased construct stiffness under anterior-posterior bending (109%), medial-lateral bending (22%), axial compression (150%), and torsion (41%) (p<0.05). Use of an oblique pin significantly increased stiffness under torsion (25%) (p<0.006). Cross-linking significantly increased stiffness only under torsion (29%) (p<0.002). Double stacking increased costs by 84%, cross-linking by 28%, and use of an oblique pin by 15% relative to a standard fixator. All 3 strategies increased stiffness under torsion to varying degrees, but only double stacking increased stiffness in all 4 testing modalities (p<0.05). Double stacking is most effective in increasing resistance to bending, particularly under anterior-posterior bending and axial compression, but requires a relatively high cost increase. Clinicians can use these data to help guide the most cost-effective strategy to increase construct stiffness based on the plane in which stiffness is needed. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A speech processing study using an acoustic model of a multiple-channel cochlear implant

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, Ying

1998-10-01

A cochlear implant is an electronic device designed to provide sound information for adults and children who have bilateral profound hearing loss. The task of representing speech signals as electrical stimuli is central to the design and performance of cochlear implants. Studies have shown that the current speech- processing strategies provide significant benefits to cochlear implant users. However, the evaluation and development of speech-processing strategies have been complicated by hardware limitations and large variability in user performance. To alleviate these problems, an acoustic model of a cochlear implant with the SPEAK strategy is implemented in this study, in which a set of acoustic stimuli whose psychophysical characteristics are as close as possible to those produced by a cochlear implant are presented on normal-hearing subjects. To test the effectiveness and feasibility of this acoustic model, a psychophysical experiment was conducted to match the performance of a normal-hearing listener using model- processed signals to that of a cochlear implant user. Good agreement was found between an implanted patient and an age-matched normal-hearing subject in a dynamic signal discrimination experiment, indicating that this acoustic model is a reasonably good approximation of a cochlear implant with the SPEAK strategy. The acoustic model was then used to examine the potential of the SPEAK strategy in terms of its temporal and frequency encoding of speech. It was hypothesized that better temporal and frequency encoding of speech can be accomplished by higher stimulation rates and a larger number of activated channels. Vowel and consonant recognition tests were conducted on normal-hearing subjects using speech tokens processed by the acoustic model, with different combinations of stimulation rate and number of activated channels. The results showed that vowel recognition was best at 600 pps and 8 activated channels, but further increases in stimulation rate and channel numbers were not beneficial. Manipulations of stimulation rate and number of activated channels did not appreciably affect consonant recognition. These results suggest that overall speech performance may improve by appropriately increasing stimulation rate and number of activated channels. Future revision of this acoustic model is necessary to provide more accurate amplitude representation of speech.

Clever strategists: Australian Magpies vary mobbing strategies, not intensity, relative to different species of predator

PubMed Central

Koboroff, A; Kaplan, G

2013-01-01

Anti-predator behaviour of magpies was investigated, using five species of model predators, at times of raising offspring. We predicted differences in mobbing strategies for each predator presented and also that raising juveniles would affect intensity of the mobbing event. Fourteen permanent resident family groups were tested using 5 different types of predator (avian and reptilian) known to be of varying degrees of risk to magpies and common in their habitat. In all, 210 trials were conducted (across three different stages of juvenile development). We found that the stage of juvenile development did not alter mobbing behaviour significantly, but predator type did. Aerial strategies (such as swooping) were elicited by taxidermic models of raptors, whereas a taxidermic model of a monitor lizard was approached on the ground and a model snake was rarely approached. Swooping patterns also changed according to which of the three raptors was presented. Our results show that, in contrast to findings in other species, magpies vary mobbing strategy depending on the predator rather than varying mobbing intensity. PMID:23638394

Clever strategists: Australian Magpies vary mobbing strategies, not intensity, relative to different species of predator.

PubMed

Koboroff, A; Kaplan, G; Rogers, Lj

2013-01-01

Anti-predator behaviour of magpies was investigated, using five species of model predators, at times of raising offspring. We predicted differences in mobbing strategies for each predator presented and also that raising juveniles would affect intensity of the mobbing event. Fourteen permanent resident family groups were tested using 5 different types of predator (avian and reptilian) known to be of varying degrees of risk to magpies and common in their habitat. In all, 210 trials were conducted (across three different stages of juvenile development). We found that the stage of juvenile development did not alter mobbing behaviour significantly, but predator type did. Aerial strategies (such as swooping) were elicited by taxidermic models of raptors, whereas a taxidermic model of a monitor lizard was approached on the ground and a model snake was rarely approached. Swooping patterns also changed according to which of the three raptors was presented. Our results show that, in contrast to findings in other species, magpies vary mobbing strategy depending on the predator rather than varying mobbing intensity.

Subjective costs drive overly patient foraging strategies in rats on an intertemporal foraging task.

PubMed

Wikenheiser, Andrew M; Stephens, David W; Redish, A David

2013-05-14

Laboratory studies of decision making often take the form of two-alternative, forced-choice paradigms. In natural settings, however, many decision problems arise as stay/go choices. We designed a foraging task to test intertemporal decision making in rats via stay/go decisions. Subjects did not follow the rate-maximizing strategy of choosing only food items associated with short delays. Instead, rats were often willing to wait for surprisingly long periods, and consequently earned a lower rate of food intake than they might have by ignoring long-delay options. We tested whether foraging theory or delay discounting models predicted the behavior we observed but found that these models could not account for the strategies subjects selected. Subjects' behavior was well accounted for by a model that incorporated a cost for rejecting potential food items. Interestingly, subjects' cost sensitivity was proportional to environmental richness. These findings are at odds with traditional normative accounts of decision making but are consistent with retrospective considerations having a deleterious influence on decisions (as in the "sunk-cost" effect). More broadly, these findings highlight the utility of complementing existing assays of decision making with tasks that mimic more natural decision topologies.

Fusing enacted and expected mimicry generates a winning strategy that promotes the evolution of cooperation.

PubMed

Fischer, Ilan; Frid, Alex; Goerg, Sebastian J; Levin, Simon A; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Selten, Reinhard

2013-06-18

Although cooperation and trust are essential features for the development of prosperous populations, they also put cooperating individuals at risk for exploitation and abuse. Empirical and theoretical evidence suggests that the solution to the problem resides in the practice of mimicry and imitation, the expectation of opponent's mimicry and the reliance on similarity indices. Here we fuse the principles of enacted and expected mimicry and condition their application on two similarity indices to produce a model of mimicry and relative similarity. Testing the model in computer simulations of behavioral niches, populated with agents that enact various strategies and learning algorithms, shows how mimicry and relative similarity outperforms all the opponent strategies it was tested against, pushes noncooperative opponents toward extinction, and promotes the development of cooperative populations. The proposed model sheds light on the evolution of cooperation and provides a blueprint for intentional induction of cooperation within and among populations. It is suggested that reducing conflict intensities among human populations necessitates (i) instigation of social initiatives that increase the perception of similarity among opponents and (ii) efficient lowering of the similarity threshold of the interaction, the minimal level of similarity that makes cooperation advisable.

Subjective costs drive overly patient foraging strategies in rats on an intertemporal foraging task

PubMed Central

Wikenheiser, Andrew M.; Stephens, David W.; Redish, A. David

2013-01-01

Laboratory studies of decision making often take the form of two-alternative, forced-choice paradigms. In natural settings, however, many decision problems arise as stay/go choices. We designed a foraging task to test intertemporal decision making in rats via stay/go decisions. Subjects did not follow the rate-maximizing strategy of choosing only food items associated with short delays. Instead, rats were often willing to wait for surprisingly long periods, and consequently earned a lower rate of food intake than they might have by ignoring long-delay options. We tested whether foraging theory or delay discounting models predicted the behavior we observed but found that these models could not account for the strategies subjects selected. Subjects’ behavior was well accounted for by a model that incorporated a cost for rejecting potential food items. Interestingly, subjects’ cost sensitivity was proportional to environmental richness. These findings are at odds with traditional normative accounts of decision making but are consistent with retrospective considerations having a deleterious influence on decisions (as in the “sunk-cost” effect). More broadly, these findings highlight the utility of complementing existing assays of decision making with tasks that mimic more natural decision topologies. PMID:23630289

Evolution of cooperative strategies from first principles.

PubMed

Burtsev, Mikhail; Turchin, Peter

2006-04-20

One of the greatest challenges in the modern biological and social sciences is to understand the evolution of cooperative behaviour. General outlines of the answer to this puzzle are currently emerging as a result of developments in the theories of kin selection, reciprocity, multilevel selection and cultural group selection. The main conceptual tool used in probing the logical coherence of proposed explanations has been game theory, including both analytical models and agent-based simulations. The game-theoretic approach yields clear-cut results but assumes, as a rule, a simple structure of payoffs and a small set of possible strategies. Here we propose a more stringent test of the theory by developing a computer model with a considerably extended spectrum of possible strategies. In our model, agents are endowed with a limited set of receptors, a set of elementary actions and a neural net in between. Behavioural strategies are not predetermined; instead, the process of evolution constructs and reconstructs them from elementary actions. Two new strategies of cooperative attack and defence emerge in simulations, as well as the well-known dove, hawk and bourgeois strategies. Our results indicate that cooperative strategies can evolve even under such minimalist assumptions, provided that agents are capable of perceiving heritable external markers of other agents.

Reaping the benefits of an open systems approach: getting the commercial approach right

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pearson, Gavin; Dawe, Tony; Stubbs, Peter; Worthington, Olwen

2016-05-01

Critical to reaping the benefits of an Open System Approach within Defence, or any other sector, is the ability to design the appropriate commercial model (or framework). This paper reports on the development and testing of a commercial strategy decision support tool. The tool set comprises a number of elements, including a process model, and provides business intelligence insights into likely supplier behaviour. The tool has been developed by subject matter experts and has been tested with a number of UK Defence procurement teams. The paper will present the commercial model framework, the elements of the toolset and the results of testing.

University Macro Analytic Simulation Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Baron, Robert; Gulko, Warren

The University Macro Analytic Simulation System (UMASS) has been designed as a forecasting tool to help university administrators budgeting decisions. Alternative budgeting strategies can be tested on a computer model and then an operational alternative can be selected on the basis of the most desirable projected outcome. UMASS uses readily…

Research on Operation Strategy for Bundled Wind-thermal Generation Power Systems Based on Two-Stage Optimization Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Congcong; Wang, Zhijie; Liu, Sanming; Jiang, Xiuchen; Sheng, Gehao; Liu, Tianyu

2017-05-01

Wind power has the advantages of being clean and non-polluting and the development of bundled wind-thermal generation power systems (BWTGSs) is one of the important means to improve wind power accommodation rate and implement “clean alternative” on generation side. A two-stage optimization strategy for BWTGSs considering wind speed forecasting results and load characteristics is proposed. By taking short-term wind speed forecasting results of generation side and load characteristics of demand side into account, a two-stage optimization model for BWTGSs is formulated. By using the environmental benefit index of BWTGSs as the objective function, supply-demand balance and generator operation as the constraints, the first-stage optimization model is developed with the chance-constrained programming theory. By using the operation cost for BWTGSs as the objective function, the second-stage optimization model is developed with the greedy algorithm. The improved PSO algorithm is employed to solve the model and numerical test verifies the effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

A semiparametric graphical modelling approach for large-scale equity selection.

PubMed

Liu, Han; Mulvey, John; Zhao, Tianqi

2016-01-01

We propose a new stock selection strategy that exploits rebalancing returns and improves portfolio performance. To effectively harvest rebalancing gains, we apply ideas from elliptical-copula graphical modelling and stability inference to select stocks that are as independent as possible. The proposed elliptical-copula graphical model has a latent Gaussian representation; its structure can be effectively inferred using the regularized rank-based estimators. The resulting algorithm is computationally efficient and scales to large data-sets. To show the efficacy of the proposed method, we apply it to conduct equity selection based on a 16-year health care stock data-set and a large 34-year stock data-set. Empirical tests show that the proposed method is superior to alternative strategies including a principal component analysis-based approach and the classical Markowitz strategy based on the traditional buy-and-hold assumption.

Retargeting of existing FORTRAN program and development of parallel compilers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Agrawal, Dharma P.

1988-01-01

The software models used in implementing the parallelizing compiler for the B-HIVE multiprocessor system are described. The various models and strategies used in the compiler development are: flexible granularity model, which allows a compromise between two extreme granularity models; communication model, which is capable of precisely describing the interprocessor communication timings and patterns; loop type detection strategy, which identifies different types of loops; critical path with coloring scheme, which is a versatile scheduling strategy for any multicomputer with some associated communication costs; and loop allocation strategy, which realizes optimum overlapped operations between computation and communication of the system. Using these models, several sample routines of the AIR3D package are examined and tested. It may be noted that automatically generated codes are highly parallelized to provide the maximized degree of parallelism, obtaining the speedup up to a 28 to 32-processor system. A comparison of parallel codes for both the existing and proposed communication model, is performed and the corresponding expected speedup factors are obtained. The experimentation shows that the B-HIVE compiler produces more efficient codes than existing techniques. Work is progressing well in completing the final phase of the compiler. Numerous enhancements are needed to improve the capabilities of the parallelizing compiler.

Cost-Effectiveness of Screening Individuals With Cystic Fibrosis for Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Gini, Andrea; Zauber, Ann G; Cenin, Dayna R; Omidvari, Amir-Houshang; Hempstead, Sarah E; Fink, Aliza K; Lowenfels, Albert B; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2017-12-27

Individuals with cystic fibrosis are at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) compared to the general population, and risk is higher among those who received an organ transplant. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine optimal CRC screening strategies for patients with cystic fibrosis. We adjusted the existing Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon microsimulation model to reflect increased CRC risk and lower life expectancy in patients with cystic fibrosis. Modeling was performed separately for individuals who never received an organ transplant and patients who had received an organ transplant. We modeled 76 colonoscopy screening strategies that varied the age range and screening interval. The optimal screening strategy was determined based on a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per life-year gained. Sensitivity and supplementary analyses were performed, including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) as an alternative test, earlier ages of transplantation, and increased rates of colonoscopy complications, to assess whether optimal screening strategies would change. Colonoscopy every 5 years, starting at age 40 years, was the optimal colonoscopy strategy for patients with cystic fibrosis who never received an organ transplant; this strategy prevented 79% of deaths from CRC. Among patients with cystic fibrosis who had received an organ transplant, optimal colonoscopy screening should start at an age of 30 or 35 years, depending on the patient's age at time of transplantation. Annual FIT screening was predicted to be cost-effective for patients with cystic fibrosis. However, the level of accuracy of the FIT in population is not clear. Using a Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon microsimulation model, we found screening of patients with cystic fibrosis for CRC to be cost-effective. Due to the higher risk in these patients for CRC, screening should start at an earlier age with a shorter screening interval. The findings of this study (especially those on FIT screening) may be limited by restricted evidence available for patients with cystic fibrosis. Copyright © 2017 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cost Effectiveness of Screening Individuals With Cystic Fibrosis for Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Gini, Andrea; Zauber, Ann G; Cenin, Dayna R; Omidvari, Amir-Houshang; Hempstead, Sarah E; Fink, Aliza K; Lowenfels, Albert B; Lansdorp-Vogelaar, Iris

2018-02-01

Individuals with cystic fibrosis are at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) compared with the general population, and risk is higher among those who received an organ transplant. We performed a cost-effectiveness analysis to determine optimal CRC screening strategies for patients with cystic fibrosis. We adjusted the existing Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model to reflect increased CRC risk and lower life expectancy in patients with cystic fibrosis. Modeling was performed separately for individuals who never received an organ transplant and patients who had received an organ transplant. We modeled 76 colonoscopy screening strategies that varied the age range and screening interval. The optimal screening strategy was determined based on a willingness to pay threshold of $100,000 per life-year gained. Sensitivity and supplementary analyses were performed, including fecal immunochemical test (FIT) as an alternative test, earlier ages of transplantation, and increased rates of colonoscopy complications, to assess if optimal screening strategies would change. Colonoscopy every 5 years, starting at an age of 40 years, was the optimal colonoscopy strategy for patients with cystic fibrosis who never received an organ transplant; this strategy prevented 79% of deaths from CRC. Among patients with cystic fibrosis who had received an organ transplant, optimal colonoscopy screening should start at an age of 30 or 35 years, depending on the patient's age at time of transplantation. Annual FIT screening was predicted to be cost-effective for patients with cystic fibrosis. However, the level of accuracy of the FIT in this population is not clear. Using a Microsimulation Screening Analysis-Colon model, we found screening of patients with cystic fibrosis for CRC to be cost effective. Because of the higher risk of CRC in these patients, screening should start at an earlier age with a shorter screening interval. The findings of this study (especially those on FIT screening) may be limited by restricted evidence available for patients with cystic fibrosis. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Acquiring, Representing, and Evaluating a Competence Model of Diagnostic Strategy.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Clancey, William J.

This paper describes NEOMYCIN, a computer program that models one physician's diagnostic reasoning within a limited area of medicine. NEOMYCIN's knowledge base and reasoning procedure constitute a model of how human knowledge is organized and how it is used in diagnosis. The hypothesis is tested that such a procedure can be used to simulate both…

Conceptual Change in Physical Geography and Environmental Sciences through Mental Model Building: The Example of Groundwater

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reinfried, Sibylle

2006-01-01

This research tested the hypothesis that students' erroneous mental models about groundwater will change towards more valid concepts if they are taught on the basis of a mental model-building strategy that focuses on the clarification of students' misconceptions. To examine the hypothesis a quasi-experimental research design was chosen. The…

Physiological and neural correlates of worry and rumination: Support for the contrast avoidance model of worry.

PubMed

Steinfurth, Elisa C K; Alius, Manuela G; Wendt, Julia; Hamm, Alfons O

2017-02-01

The current experiments tested neural and physiological correlates of worry and rumination in comparison to thinking about neutral events. According to the avoidance model-stating that worry is a strategy to reduce intense emotions-physiological and neurobiological activity during worried thinking should not differ from activation during neutral thinking. According to the contrast avoidance model-stating that worry is a strategy to reduce abrupt shifts of emotions-activity should be increased. To test these competing models, we induced worry and neutral thinking in healthy participants using personal topics. A rumination condition was added to investigate the specificity of changes induced by the mental process. Two experiments were conducted assessing the effects on different response levels: (1) neural activation using fMRI, and (2) physiological response mobilization using startle and autonomic measures. During worry, participants showed a potentiated startle response and BOLD activity indicative of emotional network activation. These data partly support the contrast avoidance model of worry. Both mental processes showed elevated activity in a common network referred to as default network indicating self-referential activity. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Male dominance rank and reproductive success in chimpanzees, Pan troglodytes schweinfurthii.

PubMed

Wroblewski, Emily E; Murray, Carson M; Keele, Brandon F; Schumacher-Stankey, Joann C; Hahn, Beatrice H; Pusey, Anne E

2009-01-01

Competition for fertile females determines male reproductive success in many species. The priority of access model predicts that male dominance rank determines access to females, but this model has been difficult to test in wild populations, particularly in promiscuous mating systems. Tests of the model have produced variable results, probably because of the differing socioecological circumstances of individual species and populations. We tested the predictions of the priority of access model in the chimpanzees of Gombe National Park, Tanzania. Chimpanzees are an interesting species in which to test the model because of their fission-fusion grouping patterns, promiscuous mating system and alternative male mating strategies. We determined paternity for 34 offspring over a 22-year period and found that the priority of access model was generally predictive of male reproductive success. However, we found that younger males had higher success per male than older males, and low-ranking males sired more offspring than predicted. Low-ranking males sired offspring with younger, less desirable females and by engaging in consortships more often than high-ranking fathers. Although alpha males never sired offspring with related females, inbreeding avoidance of high-ranking male relatives did not completely explain the success of low-ranking males. While our work confirms that male rank typically predicts male chimpanzee reproductive success, other factors are also important; mate choice and alternative male strategies can give low-ranking males access to females more often than would be predicted by the model. Furthermore, the success of younger males suggests that they are more successful in sperm competition.

A comparative research of different ensemble surrogate models based on set pair analysis for the DNAPL-contaminated aquifer remediation strategy optimization.

PubMed

Hou, Zeyu; Lu, Wenxi; Xue, Haibo; Lin, Jin

2017-08-01

Surrogate-based simulation-optimization technique is an effective approach for optimizing the surfactant enhanced aquifer remediation (SEAR) strategy for clearing DNAPLs. The performance of the surrogate model, which is used to replace the simulation model for the aim of reducing computation burden, is the key of corresponding researches. However, previous researches are generally based on a stand-alone surrogate model, and rarely make efforts to improve the approximation accuracy of the surrogate model to the simulation model sufficiently by combining various methods. In this regard, we present set pair analysis (SPA) as a new method to build ensemble surrogate (ES) model, and conducted a comparative research to select a better ES modeling pattern for the SEAR strategy optimization problems. Surrogate models were developed using radial basis function artificial neural network (RBFANN), support vector regression (SVR), and Kriging. One ES model is assembling RBFANN model, SVR model, and Kriging model using set pair weights according their performance, and the other is assembling several Kriging (the best surrogate modeling method of three) models built with different training sample datasets. Finally, an optimization model, in which the ES model was embedded, was established to obtain the optimal remediation strategy. The results showed the residuals of the outputs between the best ES model and simulation model for 100 testing samples were lower than 1.5%. Using an ES model instead of the simulation model was critical for considerably reducing the computation time of simulation-optimization process and maintaining high computation accuracy simultaneously. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Strategic Development for Middle School Students Struggling With Fractions: Assessment and Intervention.

PubMed

Zhang, Dake; Stecker, Pamela; Huckabee, Sloan; Miller, Rhonda

2016-09-01

Research has suggested that different strategies used when solving fraction problems are highly correlated with students' problem-solving accuracy. This study (a) utilized latent profile modeling to classify students into three different strategic developmental levels in solving fraction comparison problems and (b) accordingly provided differentiated strategic training for students starting from two different strategic developmental levels. In Study 1 we assessed 49 middle school students' performance on fraction comparison problems and categorized students into three clusters of strategic developmental clusters: a cross-multiplication cluster with the highest accuracy, a representation strategy cluster with medium accuracy, and a whole-number strategy cluster with the lowest accuracy. Based on the strategic developmental levels identified in Study 1, in Study 2 we selected three students from the whole-number strategy cluster and another three students from the representation strategy cluster and implemented a differentiated strategic training intervention within a multiple-baseline design. Results showed that both groups of students transitioned from less advanced to more advanced strategies and improved their problem-solving accuracy during the posttest, the maintenance test, and the generalization test. © Hammill Institute on Disabilities 2014.

Primary Teachers' Reflections on Inquiry- and Context-Based Science Education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walan, Susanne; Mc Ewen, Birgitta

2017-04-01

Inquiry- and context-based teaching strategies have been proven to stimulate and motivate students' interests in learning science. In this study, 12 teachers reflected on these strategies after using them in primary schools. The teachers participated in a continuous professional development (CPD) programme. During the programme, they were also introduced to a teaching model from a European project, where inquiry- and context-based education (IC-BaSE) strategies were fused. The research question related to teachers' reflections on these teaching strategies, and whether they found the model to be useful in primary schools after testing it with their students. Data collection was performed during the CPD programme and consisted of audio-recorded group discussions, individual portfolios and field notes collected by researchers. Results showed that compared with using only one instructional strategy, teachers found the new teaching model to be a useful complement. However, their discussions also showed that they did not reflect on choices of strategies or purposes and aims relating to students' understanding, or the content to be taught. Before the CPD programme, teachers discussed the use of inquiry mainly from the aspect that students enjoy practical work. After the programme, they identified additional reasons for using inquiry and discussed the importance of knowing why inquiry is performed. However, to develop teachers' knowledge of instructional strategies as well as purposes for using certain strategies, there is need for further investigations among primary school teachers.

Testability of evolutionary game dynamics based on experimental economics data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yijia; Chen, Xiaojie; Wang, Zhijian

2017-11-01

Understanding the dynamic processes of a real game system requires an appropriate dynamics model, and rigorously testing a dynamics model is nontrivial. In our methodological research, we develop an approach to testing the validity of game dynamics models that considers the dynamic patterns of angular momentum and speed as measurement variables. Using Rock-Paper-Scissors (RPS) games as an example, we illustrate the geometric patterns in the experiment data. We then derive the related theoretical patterns from a series of typical dynamics models. By testing the goodness-of-fit between the experimental and theoretical patterns, we show that the validity of these models can be evaluated quantitatively. Our approach establishes a link between dynamics models and experimental systems, which is, to the best of our knowledge, the most effective and rigorous strategy for ascertaining the testability of evolutionary game dynamics models.

Haplotype-Based Association Analysis via Variance-Components Score Test

PubMed Central

Tzeng, Jung-Ying ; Zhang, Daowen 

2007-01-01

Haplotypes provide a more informative format of polymorphisms for genetic association analysis than do individual single-nucleotide polymorphisms. However, the practical efficacy of haplotype-based association analysis is challenged by a trade-off between the benefits of modeling abundant variation and the cost of the extra degrees of freedom. To reduce the degrees of freedom, several strategies have been considered in the literature. They include (1) clustering evolutionarily close haplotypes, (2) modeling the level of haplotype sharing, and (3) smoothing haplotype effects by introducing a correlation structure for haplotype effects and studying the variance components (VC) for association. Although the first two strategies enjoy a fair extent of power gain, empirical evidence showed that VC methods may exhibit only similar or less power than the standard haplotype regression method, even in cases of many haplotypes. In this study, we report possible reasons that cause the underpowered phenomenon and show how the power of the VC strategy can be improved. We construct a score test based on the restricted maximum likelihood or the marginal likelihood function of the VC and identify its nontypical limiting distribution. Through simulation, we demonstrate the validity of the test and investigate the power performance of the VC approach and that of the standard haplotype regression approach. With suitable choices for the correlation structure, the proposed method can be directly applied to unphased genotypic data. Our method is applicable to a wide-ranging class of models and is computationally efficient and easy to implement. The broad coverage and the fast and easy implementation of this method make the VC strategy an effective tool for haplotype analysis, even in modern genomewide association studies. PMID:17924336

Changing practice to support self-management and recovery in mental illness: application of an implementation model.

PubMed

Harris, Melanie; Jones, Phil; Heartfield, Marie; Allstrom, Mary; Hancock, Janette; Lawn, Sharon; Battersby, Malcolm

2015-01-01

Health services introducing practice changes need effective implementation methods. Within the setting of a community mental health service offering recovery-oriented psychosocial support for people with mental illness, we aimed to: (i) identify a well-founded implementation model; and (ii) assess its practical usefulness in introducing a new programme for recovery-oriented self-management support. We reviewed the literature to identify implementation models applicable to community mental health organisations, and that also had corresponding measurement tools. We used one of these models to inform organisational change strategies. The literature review showed few models with corresponding tools. The Promoting Action on Research Implementation in Health Services (PARIHS) model and the related Organisational Readiness to Change Assessment (ORCA) tool were used. The PARIHS proposes prerequisites for health service change and the ORCA measures the extent to which these prerequisites are present. Application of the ORCA at two time points during implementation of the new programme showed strategy-related gains for some prerequisites but not for others, reflecting observed implementation progress. Additional strategies to address target prerequisites could be drawn from the PARIHS model. The PARIHS model and ORCA tool have potential in designing and monitoring practice change strategies in community mental health organisations. Further practical use and testing of implementation models appears justified in overcoming barriers to change.

Communication strategies for enhancing understanding of the behavioral implications of genetic and biomarker tests for disease risk: the role of coherence.

PubMed

Cameron, Linda D; Marteau, Theresa M; Brown, Paul M; Klein, William M P; Sherman, Kerry A

2012-06-01

Individuals frequently have difficulty understanding how behavior can reduce genetically-conferred risk for diseases such as colon cancer. With increasing opportunities to purchase genetic tests, communication strategies are needed for presenting information in ways that optimize comprehension and adaptive behavior. Using the Common-Sense Model, we tested the efficacy of a strategy for providing information about the relationships (links) among the physiological processes underlying disease risk and protective action on understanding, protective action motivations, and willingness to purchase tests. We tested the generalizability of the strategy's effects across varying risk levels, for genetic tests versus tests of a non-genetic biomarker, and when using graphic and numeric risk formats. In an internet-based experiment, 749 adults from four countries responded to messages about a hypothetical test for colon cancer risk. Messages varied by Risk-Action Link Information (provision or no provision of information describing how a low-fat diet reduces risk given positive results, indicating presence of a gene fault), Risk Increment (20%, 50%, or 80% risk given positive results), Risk Format (numeric or graphic presentation of risk increments), and Test Type (genetic or enzyme). Providing risk-action link information enhanced beliefs of coherence (understanding how a low-fat diet reduces risk) and response efficacy (low-fat diets effectively reduce risk) and lowered appraisals of anticipated risk of colon cancer given positive results. These effects held across risk increments, risk formats, and test types. For genetic tests, provision of risk-action link information reduced the amount individuals were willing to pay for testing. Brief messages explaining how action can reduce genetic and biomarker-detected risks can promote beliefs motivating protective action. By enhancing understanding of behavioral control, they may reduce the perceived value of genetic risk information.

Effects of Direct Instruction and Strategy Modeling on Upper-Primary Students’ Writing Development

PubMed Central

López, Paula; Torrance, Mark; Rijlaarsdam, Gert; Fidalgo, Raquel

2017-01-01

Strategy-focused instruction is one of the most effective approaches to improve writing skills. It aims to teach developing writers strategies that give them executive control over their writing processes. Programs under this kind of instruction tend to have multiple components that include direct instruction, modeling and scaffolded practice. This multi-component nature has two drawbacks: it makes implementation challenging due to the amount of time and training required to perform each stage, and it is difficult to determine the underlying mechanisms that contribute to its effectiveness. To unpack why strategy-focused instruction is effective, we explored the specific effects of two key components: direct teaching of writing strategies and modeling of strategy use. Six classes (133 students) of upper-primary education were randomly assigned to one of the two experimental conditions, in which students received instruction aimed at developing effective strategies for planning and drafting, or control group with no strategy instruction: Direct Instruction (N = 46), Modeling (N = 45), and Control (N = 42). Writing performance was assessed before the intervention and immediately after the intervention with two tasks, one collaborative and the other one individual to explore whether differential effects resulted from students writing alone or in pairs. Writing performance was assessed through reader-based and text-based measures of text quality. Results at post-test showed similar improvement in both intervention conditions, relatively to controls, in all measures and in both the collaborative and the individual task. No statistically significant differences were observed between experimental conditions. These findings suggest that both components, direct teaching and modeling, are equally effective in improving writing skills in upper primary students, and these effects are present even after a short training. PMID:28713299

Population Pharmacokinetics and Optimal Sampling Strategy for Model-Based Precision Dosing of Melphalan in Patients Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation.

PubMed

Mizuno, Kana; Dong, Min; Fukuda, Tsuyoshi; Chandra, Sharat; Mehta, Parinda A; McConnell, Scott; Anaissie, Elias J; Vinks, Alexander A

2018-05-01

High-dose melphalan is an important component of conditioning regimens for patients undergoing hematopoietic stem cell transplantation. The current dosing strategy based on body surface area results in a high incidence of oral mucositis and gastrointestinal and liver toxicity. Pharmacokinetically guided dosing will individualize exposure and help minimize overexposure-related toxicity. The purpose of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model and optimal sampling strategy. A population pharmacokinetic model was developed with NONMEM using 98 observations collected from 15 adult patients given the standard dose of 140 or 200 mg/m 2 by intravenous infusion. The determinant-optimal sampling strategy was explored with PopED software. Individual area under the curve estimates were generated by Bayesian estimation using full and the proposed sparse sampling data. The predictive performance of the optimal sampling strategy was evaluated based on bias and precision estimates. The feasibility of the optimal sampling strategy was tested using pharmacokinetic data from five pediatric patients. A two-compartment model best described the data. The final model included body weight and creatinine clearance as predictors of clearance. The determinant-optimal sampling strategies (and windows) were identified at 0.08 (0.08-0.19), 0.61 (0.33-0.90), 2.0 (1.3-2.7), and 4.0 (3.6-4.0) h post-infusion. An excellent correlation was observed between area under the curve estimates obtained with the full and the proposed four-sample strategy (R 2  = 0.98; p < 0.01) with a mean bias of -2.2% and precision of 9.4%. A similar relationship was observed in children (R 2  = 0.99; p < 0.01). The developed pharmacokinetic model-based sparse sampling strategy promises to achieve the target area under the curve as part of precision dosing.

Collaborative Testing: An Effective Invitational Strategy for High-Stakes Testing in Nursing.

PubMed

Green, Rebecca; Worthey, Terri; Kerven, Jenny

2018-05-01

A collaborative testing intervention was designed as an application of the invitational education model in an undergraduate nursing course. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effect of collaborative testing on examination scores and knowledge retention of course content and to evaluate students' feelings about the collaborative testing process. A quasi-experimental design was used to evaluate the effect of collaborative testing on examination scores and knowledge retention among undergraduate nursing students in a public health course (N = 106). A descriptive survey was used to evaluate students' perceptions of the collaborative testing intervention. Collaborative testing increased examination scores and facilitated knowledge retention. Students' perceptions of the intervention were positive. Invitational strategies, such as collaborative testing, may result in measurably better outcomes, such as better examination scores and improved knowledge retention. Rigor does not need to be a barrier to invitational learning and, in fact, it may be complemented and enhanced by it. [J Nurs Educ. 2018;57(5):291-295.]. Copyright 2018, SLACK Incorporated.

Switching moving boundary models for two-phase flow evaporators and condensers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonilla, Javier; Dormido, Sebastián; Cellier, François E.

2015-03-01

The moving boundary method is an appealing approach for the design, testing and validation of advanced control schemes for evaporators and condensers. When it comes to advanced control strategies, not only accurate but fast dynamic models are required. Moving boundary models are fast low-order dynamic models, and they can describe the dynamic behavior with high accuracy. This paper presents a mathematical formulation based on physical principles for two-phase flow moving boundary evaporator and condenser models which support dynamic switching between all possible flow configurations. The models were implemented in a library using the equation-based object-oriented Modelica language. Several integrity tests in steady-state and transient predictions together with stability tests verified the models. Experimental data from a direct steam generation parabolic-trough solar thermal power plant is used to validate and compare the developed moving boundary models against finite volume models.

Toward rigorous idiographic research in prevention science: comparison between three analytic strategies for testing preventive intervention in very small samples.

PubMed

Ridenour, Ty A; Pineo, Thomas Z; Maldonado Molina, Mildred M; Hassmiller Lich, Kristen

2013-06-01

Psychosocial prevention research lacks evidence from intensive within-person lines of research to understand idiographic processes related to development and response to intervention. Such data could be used to fill gaps in the literature and expand the study design options for prevention researchers, including lower-cost yet rigorous studies (e.g., for program evaluations), pilot studies, designs to test programs for low prevalence outcomes, selective/indicated/adaptive intervention research, and understanding of differential response to programs. This study compared three competing analytic strategies designed for this type of research: autoregressive moving average, mixed model trajectory analysis, and P-technique. Illustrative time series data were from a pilot study of an intervention for nursing home residents with diabetes (N = 4) designed to improve control of blood glucose. A within-person, intermittent baseline design was used. Intervention effects were detected using each strategy for the aggregated sample and for individual patients. The P-technique model most closely replicated observed glucose levels. ARIMA and P-technique models were most similar in terms of estimated intervention effects and modeled glucose levels. However, ARIMA and P-technique also were more sensitive to missing data, outliers and number of observations. Statistical testing suggested that results generalize both to other persons as well as to idiographic, longitudinal processes. This study demonstrated the potential contributions of idiographic research in prevention science as well as the need for simulation studies to delineate the research circumstances when each analytic approach is optimal for deriving the correct parameter estimates.

Toward Rigorous Idiographic Research in Prevention Science: Comparison Between Three Analytic Strategies for Testing Preventive Intervention in Very Small Samples

PubMed Central

Pineo, Thomas Z.; Maldonado Molina, Mildred M.; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller

2013-01-01

Psychosocial prevention research lacks evidence from intensive within-person lines of research to understand idiographic processes related to development and response to intervention. Such data could be used to fill gaps in the literature and expand the study design options for prevention researchers, including lower-cost yet rigorous studies (e.g., for program evaluations), pilot studies, designs to test programs for low prevalence outcomes, selective/indicated/ adaptive intervention research, and understanding of differential response to programs. This study compared three competing analytic strategies designed for this type of research: autoregressive moving average, mixed model trajectory analysis, and P-technique. Illustrative time series data were from a pilot study of an intervention for nursing home residents with diabetes (N=4) designed to improve control of blood glucose. A within-person, intermittent baseline design was used. Intervention effects were detected using each strategy for the aggregated sample and for individual patients. The P-technique model most closely replicated observed glucose levels. ARIMA and P-technique models were most similar in terms of estimated intervention effects and modeled glucose levels. However, ARIMA and P-technique also were more sensitive to missing data, outliers and number of observations. Statistical testing suggested that results generalize both to other persons as well as to idiographic, longitudinal processes. This study demonstrated the potential contributions of idiographic research in prevention science as well as the need for simulation studies to delineate the research circumstances when each analytic approach is optimal for deriving the correct parameter estimates. PMID:23299558

Measuring the Outcome of At-Risk Students on Biology Standardized Tests When Using Different Instructional Strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burns, Dana

Over the last two decades, online education has become a popular concept in universities as well as K-12 education. This generation of students has grown up using technology and has shown interest in incorporating technology into their learning. The idea of using technology in the classroom to enhance student learning and create higher achievement has become necessary for administrators, teachers, and policymakers. Although online education is a popular topic, there has been minimal research on the effectiveness of online and blended learning strategies compared to the student learning in a traditional K-12 classroom setting. The purpose of this study was to investigate differences in standardized test scores from the Biology End of Course exam when at-risk students completed the course using three different educational models: online format, blended learning, and traditional face-to-face learning. Data was collected from over 1,000 students over a five year time period. Correlation analyzed data from standardized tests scores of eighth grade students was used to define students as "at-risk" for failing high school courses. The results indicated a high correlation between eighth grade standardized test scores and Biology End of Course exam scores. These students were deemed "at-risk" for failing high school courses. Standardized test scores were measured for the at-risk students when those students completed Biology in the different models of learning. Results indicated significant differences existed among the learning models. Students had the highest test scores when completing Biology in the traditional face-to-face model. Further evaluation of subgroup populations indicated statistical differences in learning models for African-American populations, female students, and for male students.

New strategy to improve quality control of Montenegro skin test at the production level.

PubMed

Guedes, Deborah Carbonera; Minozzo, João Carlos; Pasquali, Aline Kuhn Sbruzzi; Faulds, Craig; Soccol, Carlos Ricardo; Thomaz-Soccol, Vanete

2017-01-01

The production of the Montenegro antigen for skin test poses difficulties regarding quality control. Here, we propose that certain animal models reproducing a similar immune response to humans may be used in the quality control of Montenegro antigen production. Fifteen Cavia porcellus (guinea pigs) were immunized with Leishmania amazonensis or Leishmania braziliensis , and, after 30 days, they were skin tested with standard Montenegro antigen. To validate C. porcellus as an animal model for skin tests, eighteen Mesocricetus auratus (hamsters) were infected with L. amazonensis or L. braziliensis , and, after 45 days, they were skin tested with standard Montenegro antigen. Cavia porcellus immunized with L. amazonensis or L. braziliensis , and hamsters infected with the same species presented induration reactions when skin tested with standard Montenegro antigen 48-72h after the test. The comparison between immunization methods and immune response from the two animal species validated C. porcellus as a good model for Montenegro skin test, and the model showed strong potential as an in vivo model in the quality control of the production of Montenegro antigen.

Solar Thermal Upper Stage Liquid Hydrogen Pressure Control Testing and Analytical Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Olsen, A. D.; Cady, E. C.; Jenkins, D. S.; Chandler, F. O.; Grayson, G. D.; Lopez, A.; Hastings, L. J.; Flachbart, R. H.; Pedersen, K. W.

2012-01-01

The demonstration of a unique liquid hydrogen (LH2) storage and feed system concept for solar thermal upper stage was cooperatively accomplished by a Boeing/NASA Marshall Space Flight Center team. The strategy was to balance thermodynamic venting with the engine thrusting timeline during a representative 30-day mission, thereby, assuring no vent losses. Using a 2 cubic m (71 cubic ft) LH2 tank, proof-of-concept testing consisted of an engineering checkout followed by a 30-day mission simulation. The data were used to anchor a combination of standard analyses and computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling. Dependence on orbital testing has been incrementally reduced as CFD codes, combined with standard modeling, continue to be challenged with test data such as this.

Student Learning Theory Goes (Back) to (High) School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ginns, Paul; Martin, Andrew J.; Papworth, Brad

2014-01-01

Biggs' 3P (Presage-Process-Product) model, a key framework in Student Learning Theory, provides a powerful means of understanding relations between students' perceptions of the teaching and learning environment, learning strategies, and learning outcomes. While influential in higher education, fewer tests of the model in secondary education…

Costs and health consequences of chlamydia management strategies among pregnant women in sub-Saharan Africa.

PubMed

Romoren, M; Hussein, F; Steen, T W; Velauthapillai, M; Sundby, J; Hjortdahl, P; Kristiansen, I S

2007-12-01

Chlamydia is the most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection worldwide and a major cause of morbidity-particularly among women and neonates. We compared costs and health consequences of using point-of-care (POC) tests with current syndromic management among antenatal care attendees in sub-Saharan Africa. We also compared erythromycin with azithromycin treatment and universal with age-based chlamydia management. A decision analytical model was developed to compare diagnostic and treatment strategies, using Botswana as a case. Model input was based upon (1) a study of pregnant women in Botswana, (2) literature reviews and (3) expert opinion. We expressed the study outcome in terms of costs (US$), cases cured, magnitude of overtreatment and successful partner treatment. Azithromycin was less costly and more effective than erythromycin. Compared with syndromic management, testing all attendees on their first visit with a 75% sensitive POC test increased the number of cases cured from 1500 to 3500 in a population of 100,000 women, at a cost of US$38 per additional case cured. This cost was lower in high-prevalence populations or if testing was restricted to teenagers. The specific POC tests provided the advantage of substantial reductions in overtreatment with antibiotics and improved partner management. Using POC tests to diagnose chlamydia during antenatal care in sub-Saharan Africa entails greater health benefits than syndromic management does-and at acceptable costs-especially when restricted to younger women. Changes in diagnostic strategy and treatment regimens may improve people's health and even reduce healthcare budgets.

Optimization of European call options considering physical delivery network and reservoir operation rules

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Wei-Chen; Hsu, Nien-Sheng; Cheng, Wen-Ming; Yeh, William W.-G.

2011-10-01

This paper develops alternative strategies for European call options for water purchase under hydrological uncertainties that can be used by water resources managers for decision making. Each alternative strategy maximizes its own objective over a selected sequence of future hydrology that is characterized by exceedance probability. Water trade provides flexibility and enhances water distribution system reliability. However, water trade between two parties in a regional water distribution system involves many issues, such as delivery network, reservoir operation rules, storage space, demand, water availability, uncertainty, and any existing contracts. An option is a security giving the right to buy or sell an asset; in our case, the asset is water. We extend a flow path-based water distribution model to include reservoir operation rules. The model simultaneously considers both the physical distribution network as well as the relationships between water sellers and buyers. We first test the model extension. Then we apply the proposed optimization model for European call options to the Tainan water distribution system in southern Taiwan. The formulation lends itself to a mixed integer linear programming model. We use the weighing method to formulate a composite function for a multiobjective problem. The proposed methodology provides water resources managers with an overall picture of water trade strategies and the consequence of each strategy. The results from the case study indicate that the strategy associated with a streamflow exceedence probability of 50% or smaller should be adopted as the reference strategy for the Tainan water distribution system.

Climate Change Implications for Tropical Islands: Interpolating and Interpreting Statistically Downscaled GCM Projections for Management and Planning

Treesearch

Azad Henareh Khalyani; William A. Gould; Eric Harmsen; Adam Terando; Maya Quinones; Jaime A. Collazo

2016-01-01

Estimating the impact of test-and-treat strategies on hepatitis B virus infection in China by using an age-structured mathematical model.

PubMed

Zu, Jian; Li, Miaolei; Zhuang, Guihua; Liang, Peifeng; Cui, Fuqiang; Wang, Fuzhen; Zheng, Hui; Liang, Xiaofeng

2018-04-01

The potential impact of increasing test-and-treat coverage on hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains unclear in China. The objective of this study was to develop a dynamic compartmental model at a population level to estimate the long-term effect of this strategy.Based on the natural history of HBV infection and 3 serosurvey data of hepatitis B in China, we proposed an age- and time-dependent discrete model to predict the number of new HBV infection, the number of chronic HBV infection, and the number of HBV-related deaths for the time from 2018 to 2050 under 5 different test-and-treat coverage and compared them with current intervention policy.Compared with current policy, if the test-and-treat coverage was increased to 100% since 2018, the numbers of chronic HBV infection, new HBV infection, and HBV-related deaths in 2035 would be reduced by 26.60%, 24.88%, 26.55%, respectively, and in 2050 it would be reduced by 44.93%, 43.29%, 43.67%, respectively. In contrast, if the test-and-treat coverage was increased by 10% every year since 2018, then the numbers of chronic HBV infection, new HBV infection, and HBV-related deaths in 2035 would be reduced by 21.81%, 20.10%, 21.40%, respectively, and in 2050 it would be reduced by 41.53%, 39.89%, 40.32%, respectively. In particular, if the test-and-treat coverage was increased to 75% since 2018, then the annual number of HBV-related deaths would begin to decrease from 2018. If the test-and-treat coverage was increased to above 25% since 2018, then the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) prevalence for population aged 1 to 59 years in China would be reduced to below 2% in 2035. Our model also showed that in 2035, the numbers of chronic HBV infection and HBV-related deaths in 65 to 69 age group would be reduced the most (about 1.6 million and 13 thousand, respectively).Increasing test-and-treat coverage would significantly reduce HBV infection in China, especially in the middle-aged people and older people. The earlier the treatment and the longer the time, the more significant the reduction. Implementation of test-and-treat strategy is highly effective in controlling hepatitis B in China.

Estimating the impact of test-and-treat strategies on hepatitis B virus infection in China by using an age-structured mathematical model

PubMed Central

Zu, Jian; Li, Miaolei; Zhuang, Guihua; Liang, Peifeng; Cui, Fuqiang; Wang, Fuzhen; Zheng, Hui; Liang, Xiaofeng

2018-01-01

Abstract The potential impact of increasing test-and-treat coverage on hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection remains unclear in China. The objective of this study was to develop a dynamic compartmental model at a population level to estimate the long-term effect of this strategy. Based on the natural history of HBV infection and 3 serosurvey data of hepatitis B in China, we proposed an age- and time-dependent discrete model to predict the number of new HBV infection, the number of chronic HBV infection, and the number of HBV-related deaths for the time from 2018 to 2050 under 5 different test-and-treat coverage and compared them with current intervention policy. Compared with current policy, if the test-and-treat coverage was increased to 100% since 2018, the numbers of chronic HBV infection, new HBV infection, and HBV-related deaths in 2035 would be reduced by 26.60%, 24.88%, 26.55%, respectively, and in 2050 it would be reduced by 44.93%, 43.29%, 43.67%, respectively. In contrast, if the test-and-treat coverage was increased by 10% every year since 2018, then the numbers of chronic HBV infection, new HBV infection, and HBV-related deaths in 2035 would be reduced by 21.81%, 20.10%, 21.40%, respectively, and in 2050 it would be reduced by 41.53%, 39.89%, 40.32%, respectively. In particular, if the test-and-treat coverage was increased to 75% since 2018, then the annual number of HBV-related deaths would begin to decrease from 2018. If the test-and-treat coverage was increased to above 25% since 2018, then the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) prevalence for population aged 1 to 59 years in China would be reduced to below 2% in 2035. Our model also showed that in 2035, the numbers of chronic HBV infection and HBV-related deaths in 65 to 69 age group would be reduced the most (about 1.6 million and 13 thousand, respectively). Increasing test-and-treat coverage would significantly reduce HBV infection in China, especially in the middle-aged people and older people. The earlier the treatment and the longer the time, the more significant the reduction. Implementation of test-and-treat strategy is highly effective in controlling hepatitis B in China. PMID:29668627

An agent-based model of cattle grazing toxic Geyer's larkspur.

PubMed

Jablonski, Kevin E; Boone, Randall B; Meiman, Paul J

2018-01-01

By killing cattle and otherwise complicating management, the many species of larkspur (Delphinium spp.) present a serious, intractable, and complex challenge to livestock grazing management in the western United States. Among the many obstacles to improving our understanding of cattle-larkspur dynamics has been the difficulty of testing different grazing management strategies in the field, as the risk of dead animals is too great. Agent-based models (ABMs) provide an effective method of testing alternate management strategies without risk to livestock. ABMs are especially useful for modeling complex systems such as livestock grazing management, and allow for realistic bottom-up encoding of cattle behavior. Here, we introduce a spatially-explicit, behavior-based ABM of cattle grazing in a pasture with a dangerous amount of Geyer's larkspur (D. geyeri). This model tests the role of herd cohesion and stocking density in larkspur intake, finds that both are key drivers of larkspur-induced toxicosis, and indicates that alteration of these factors within realistic bounds can mitigate risk. Crucially, the model points to herd cohesion, which has received little attention in the discipline, as playing an important role in lethal acute toxicosis. As the first ABM to model grazing behavior at realistic scales, this study also demonstrates the tremendous potential of ABMs to illuminate grazing management dynamics, including fundamental aspects of livestock behavior amidst ecological heterogeneity.

The SUCCESS model for laboratory performance and execution of rapid molecular diagnostics in patients with sepsis.

PubMed

Dekmezian, Mhair; Beal, Stacy G; Damashek, Mary Jane; Benavides, Raul; Dhiman, Neelam

2015-04-01

Successful performance and execution of rapid diagnostics in a clinical laboratory hinges heavily on careful validation, accurate and timely communication of results, and real-time quality monitoring. Laboratories must develop strategies to integrate diagnostics with stewardship and evidence-based clinical practice guidelines. We present a collaborative SUCCESS model for execution and monitoring of rapid sepsis diagnostics to facilitate timely treatment. Six months after execution of the Verigene Gram-Positive Blood Culture (BC-GP) and the AdvanDx PNA-FISH assays, data were collected on 579 and 28 episodes of bacteremia and fungemia, respectively. Clinical testing was executed using a SUCCESS model comprising the following components: stewardship, utilization of resources, core strategies, concierge services, education, support, and surveillance. Stewardship needs were identified by evaluating the specialty services benefiting from new testing. Utilization of resources was optimized by reviewing current treatment strategies and antibiogram and formulary options. Core strategies consisted of input from infectious disease leadership, pharmacy, and laboratory staff. Concierge services included automated Micro-eUpdate and physician-friendly actionable reports. Education modules were user-specific, and support was provided through a dedicated 24/7 microbiology hotline. Surveillance was performed by daily audit by the director. Using the SUCCESS model, the turnaround time for the detailed report with actionable guidelines to the physician was ∼3 hours from the time of culture positivity. The overall correlation between rapid methods and culture was 94% (546/579). Discrepant results were predominantly contaminants such as a coagulase-negative staphylococci or viridans streptococci in mixed cultures. SUCCESS is a cost-effective and easily adaptable model for clinical laboratories with limited stewardship resources.

Conceptual PHES-system models of the Aysén watershed and fjord (Southern Chile): testing a brainstorming strategy.

PubMed

Marín, Víctor H; Delgado, Luisa E; Bachmann, Pamela

2008-09-01

The use of brainstorming techniques for the generation of conceptual models, as the basis for the integrated management of physical-ecological-social systems (PHES-systems) is tested and discussed. The methodology is applied in the analysis of the Aysén fjord and watershed (Southern Chilean Coast). Results show that the proposed methods can be adequately used in management scenarios characterized by highly hierarchical, experts/non-experts membership.

Paying a price: culture, trust, and negotiation consequences.

PubMed

Gunia, Brian C; Brett, Jeanne M; Nandkeolyar, Amit K; Kamdar, Dishan

2011-07-01

Three studies contrasting Indian and American negotiators tested hypotheses derived from theory proposing why there are cultural differences in trust and how cultural differences in trust influence negotiation strategy. Study 1 (a survey) documented that Indian negotiators trust their counterparts less than American negotiators. Study 2 (a negotiation simulation) linked American and Indian negotiators' self-reported trust and strategy to their insight and joint gains. Study 3 replicated and extended Study 2 using independently coded negotiation strategy data, allowing for stronger causal inference. Overall, the strategy associated with Indian negotiators' reluctance to extend interpersonal (as opposed to institutional) trust produced relatively poor outcomes. Our data support an expanded theoretical model of negotiation, linking culture to trust, strategies, and outcomes.

Cloud computing task scheduling strategy based on improved differential evolution algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ge, Junwei; He, Qian; Fang, Yiqiu

2017-04-01

In order to optimize the cloud computing task scheduling scheme, an improved differential evolution algorithm for cloud computing task scheduling is proposed. Firstly, the cloud computing task scheduling model, according to the model of the fitness function, and then used improved optimization calculation of the fitness function of the evolutionary algorithm, according to the evolution of generation of dynamic selection strategy through dynamic mutation strategy to ensure the global and local search ability. The performance test experiment was carried out in the CloudSim simulation platform, the experimental results show that the improved differential evolution algorithm can reduce the cloud computing task execution time and user cost saving, good implementation of the optimal scheduling of cloud computing tasks.

Parental perceptions of technology and technology-focused parenting: Associations with youth screen time

PubMed Central

Sanders, Wesley; Parent, Justin; Forehand, Rex; Sullivan, Alexandra D.W.; Jones, Deborah J.

2016-01-01

In the present study we propose a model linking parental perceptions of technology to technology-related parenting strategies to youth screen time, and, finally, to internalizing and externalizing problem behaviors. Participants were 615 parents drawn from three community samples of families with children across three developmental stages: young childhood, middle childhood, and adolescence. The model was tested at each stage with the strongest support emerging in the young childhood sample. One component of parental perceptions of technology, perceived efficacy, was related to technology-related parenting strategies across developmental stages. However, the association of these strategies to child screen time and, in turn, problem behaviors, diminished as children increased in age. Implications for intervention are considered. PMID:27795603

The Relationships among Students' Future-Oriented Goals and Subgoals, Perceived Task Instrumentality, and Task-Oriented Self-Regulation Strategies in an Academic Environment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tabachnick, Sharon E.; Miller, Raymond B.; Relyea, George E.

2008-01-01

The authors performed path analysis, followed by a bootstrap procedure, to test the predictions of a model explaining the relationships among students' distal future goals (both extrinsic and intrinsic), their adoption of a middle-range subgoal, their perceptions of task instrumentality, and their proximal task-oriented self-regulation strategies.…

A biologically inspired meta-control navigation system for the Psikharpax rat robot.

PubMed

Caluwaerts, K; Staffa, M; N'Guyen, S; Grand, C; Dollé, L; Favre-Félix, A; Girard, B; Khamassi, M

2012-06-01

A biologically inspired navigation system for the mobile rat-like robot named Psikharpax is presented, allowing for self-localization and autonomous navigation in an initially unknown environment. The ability of parts of the model (e.g. the strategy selection mechanism) to reproduce rat behavioral data in various maze tasks has been validated before in simulations. But the capacity of the model to work on a real robot platform had not been tested. This paper presents our work on the implementation on the Psikharpax robot of two independent navigation strategies (a place-based planning strategy and a cue-guided taxon strategy) and a strategy selection meta-controller. We show how our robot can memorize which was the optimal strategy in each situation, by means of a reinforcement learning algorithm. Moreover, a context detector enables the controller to quickly adapt to changes in the environment-recognized as new contexts-and to restore previously acquired strategy preferences when a previously experienced context is recognized. This produces adaptivity closer to rat behavioral performance and constitutes a computational proposition of the role of the rat prefrontal cortex in strategy shifting. Moreover, such a brain-inspired meta-controller may provide an advancement for learning architectures in robotics.

The Evaluation of Effectiveness of Reciprocal Teaching Strategies on Comprehension of Expository Texts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pilten, Gulhiz

2016-01-01

The purpose of the present research is investigating the effects of reciprocal teaching in comprehending expository texts. The research was designed with mixed method. The quantitative dimension of the present research was designed in accordance with pre-test-post-test control group experiment model. The quantitative dimension of the present…

Family Environments, Adrenarche, and Sexual Maturation: A Longitudinal Test of a Life History Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ellis, Bruce J.; Essex, Marilyn J.

2007-01-01

Life history theorists have proposed that humans have evolved to be sensitive to specific features of early childhood environments and that exposure to different environments biases children toward development of different reproductive strategies, including differential pubertal timing. The current research provides a longitudinal test of this…

A Feedback Control Strategy for Enhancing Item Selection Efficiency in Computerized Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weissman, Alexander

2006-01-01

A computerized adaptive test (CAT) may be modeled as a closed-loop system, where item selection is influenced by trait level ([theta]) estimation and vice versa. When discrepancies exist between an examinee's estimated and true [theta] levels, nonoptimal item selection is a likely result. Nevertheless, examinee response behavior consistent with…

Model-based development of low-level control strategies for transient operation of solid oxide fuel cell systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sorrentino, Marco; Pianese, Cesare

The exploitation of an SOFC-system model to define and test control and energy management strategies is presented. Such a work is motivated by the increasing interest paid to SOFC technology by industries and governments due to its highly appealing potentialities in terms of energy savings, fuel flexibility, cogeneration, low-pollution and low-noise operation. The core part of the model is the SOFC stack, surrounded by a number of auxiliary devices, i.e. air compressor, regulating pressure valves, heat exchangers, pre-reformer and post-burner. Due to the slow thermal dynamics of SOFCs, a set of three lumped-capacity models describes the dynamic response of fuel cell and heat exchangers to any operation change. The dynamic model was used to develop low-level control strategies aimed at guaranteeing targeted performance while keeping stack temperature derivative within safe limits to reduce stack degradation due to thermal stresses. Control strategies for both cold-start and warmed-up operations were implemented by combining feedforward and feedback approaches. Particularly, the main cold-start control action relies on the precise regulation of methane flow towards anode and post-burner via by-pass valves; this strategy is combined with a cathode air-flow adjustment to have a tight control of both stack temperature gradient and warm-up time. Results are presented to show the potentialities of the proposed model-based approach to: (i) serve as a support to control strategies development and (ii) solve the trade-off between fast SOFC cold-start and avoidance of thermal-stress caused damages.

Semi-span model testing in the National Transonic Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chokani, Ndaona; Milholen, William E., II

1993-01-01

A semi-span testing technique has been proposed for the NASA Langley Research Center's National Transonic Facility (NTF). Semi-span testing has several advantages including (1) larger model size, giving increased Reynolds number capability; (2) improved model fidelity, allowing ease of flap and slat positioning which ultimately improves data quality; and (3) reduced construction costs compared with a full-span model. In addition, the increased model size inherently allows for increased model strength, reducing aeroelastic effects at the high dynamic pressure levels necessary to simulate flight Reynolds numbers. The Energy Efficient Transport (EET) full-span model has been modified to become the EET semi-span model. The full-span EET model was tested extensively at both NASA LRC and NASA Ames Research Center. The available full-span data will be useful in validating the semi-span test strategy in the NTF. In spite of the advantages discussed above, the use of a semi-span model does introduce additional challenges which must be addressed in the testing procedure. To minimize the influence of the sidewall boundary layer on the flow over the semi-span model, the model must be off-set from the sidewall. The objective is to remove the semi-span model from the sidewall boundary layer by use of a stand-off geometry. When this is done however, the symmetry along the centerline of the full-span model is lost when the semi-span model is mounted on the wind tunnel sidewall. In addition, the large semi-span model will impose a significant pressure loading on the sidewall boundary layer, which may cause separation. Even under flow conditions where the sidewall boundary layer remains attached, the sidewall boundary layer may adversely effect the flow over the semi-span model. Also, the increased model size and sidewall mounting requires a modified wall correction strategy. With these issues in mind, the semi-span model has been well instrumented with surface pressure taps to obtain data on the expected complex flow field in the near wall region. This status report summarizes the progress to date on developing the semi-span geometry definition suitable for generating structured grids for the computational research. In addition, the progress on evaluating three state-of-the-art Navier-Stokes codes is presented.

The Impact of Non-attempted and Dually-Attempted Items on Person Abilities Using Item Response Theory

PubMed Central

Sideridis, Georgios D.; Tsaousis, Ioannis; Al Harbi, Khaleel

2016-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to relate response strategy with person ability estimates. Two behavioral strategies were examined: (a) the strategy to skip items in order to save time on timed tests, and, (b) the strategy to select two responses on an item, with the hope that one of them may be considered correct. Participants were 4,422 individuals who were administered a standardized achievement measure related to math, biology, chemistry, and physics. In the present evaluation, only the physics subscale was employed. Two analyses were conducted: (a) a person-based one to identify differences between groups and potential correlates of those differences, and, (b) a measure-based analysis in order to identify the parts of the measure that were responsible for potential group differentiation. For (a) person abilities the 2-PL model was employed and later the 3-PL and 4-PL models in order to estimate upper and lower asymptotes of person abilities. For (b) differential item functioning, differential test functioning, and differential distractor functioning were investigated. Results indicated that there were significant differences between groups with completers having the highest ability compared to both non-attempters and dual responders. There were no significant differences between no-attempters and dual responders. The present findings have implications for response strategy efficacy and measure evaluation, revision, and construction. PMID:27790174

The Impact of Non-attempted and Dually-Attempted Items on Person Abilities Using Item Response Theory.

PubMed

Sideridis, Georgios D; Tsaousis, Ioannis; Al Harbi, Khaleel

2016-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to relate response strategy with person ability estimates. Two behavioral strategies were examined: (a) the strategy to skip items in order to save time on timed tests, and, (b) the strategy to select two responses on an item, with the hope that one of them may be considered correct. Participants were 4,422 individuals who were administered a standardized achievement measure related to math, biology, chemistry, and physics. In the present evaluation, only the physics subscale was employed. Two analyses were conducted: (a) a person-based one to identify differences between groups and potential correlates of those differences, and, (b) a measure-based analysis in order to identify the parts of the measure that were responsible for potential group differentiation. For (a) person abilities the 2-PL model was employed and later the 3-PL and 4-PL models in order to estimate upper and lower asymptotes of person abilities. For (b) differential item functioning, differential test functioning, and differential distractor functioning were investigated. Results indicated that there were significant differences between groups with completers having the highest ability compared to both non-attempters and dual responders. There were no significant differences between no-attempters and dual responders. The present findings have implications for response strategy efficacy and measure evaluation, revision, and construction.

Evaluation strategy for the I-95 CC electronic credentialing program

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-03-01

The electronic credentialing field operational test will undertake the model deployment of electronic credentialing for commercial vehicles. The project will involve the development of state-specific electronic credentialing systems.

Cost effectiveness of targeted high-dose atorvastatin therapy following genotype testing in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

PubMed

Parthan, Anju; Leahy, Kevin J; O'Sullivan, Amy K; Iakoubova, Olga A; Bare, Lance A; Devlin, James J; Weinstein, Milton C

2013-06-01

Results from the PROVE IT trial suggest that patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) treated with atorvastatin 80 mg/day (A80) have significantly lower rates of cardiovascular events compared with patients treated with pravastatin 40 mg/day (P40). In a genetic post hoc substudy of the PROVE IT trial, the rate of event reduction was greater in carriers of the Trp719Arg variant in kinesin family member 6 protein (KIF6) than in noncarriers. We assessed the cost effectiveness of testing for the KIF6 variant followed by targeted statin therapy (KIF6 Testing) versus not testing patients (No Test) and treating them with P40 or A80 in the USA from a payer perspective. A Markov model was developed in which 2-year event rates from PROVE IT were extrapolated over a lifetime horizon. Costs and utilities were derived from published literature. All costs were in 2010 US dollars except the cost of A80, which was in 2012 US dollars because the generic formulation was available in 2012. Expected costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated for each strategy over a lifetime horizon. Lifetime costs were US$31,700; US$37,100 and US$41,300 for No Test P40, KIF6 Testing and No Test A80 strategies, respectively. The No Test A80 strategy was associated with more QALYs (9.71) than the KIF6 Testing (9.69) and No Test P40 (9.57) strategies. No Test A80 had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$232,100 per QALY gained compared with KIF6 Testing. KIF6 Testing had an ICER of US$45,300 per QALY compared with No Test P40. Testing ACS patients for KIF6 carrier status may be a cost-effective strategy at commonly accepted thresholds. Treating all patients with A80 is more expensive than treating patients on the basis of KIF6 results, but the modest gain in QALYs is achieved at a cost/QALY that is generally considered unacceptable compared with the KIF6 Testing strategy. Compared with treating all patients with P40, the KIF6 Testing strategy had an ICER below US$50,000 per QALY. The conclusions from this study are sensitive to the price of generic A80 and the effect on adherence of knowing KIF6 carrier status. The results were based on a post hoc substudy of the PROVE IT trial, which was not designed to test the effectiveness of KIF6 testing.

Scopolamine-induced greater alterations in neurochemical profile and increased oxidative stress demonstrated a better model of dementia: A comparative study.

PubMed

Haider, Saida; Tabassum, Saiqa; Perveen, Tahira

2016-10-01

Cognitive decline is found to be a common feature of various neurological disorders like Alzheimer's disease (AD). In order to recapitulate AD associated cognitive deficits and to plan therapeutic strategies researchers have developed various preclinical dementia models to recapitulate different aspects of cognitive domains affected in AD brain. So, the present study was aimed to compare alterations in previously reported dementia models i.e. pharmacological (Scopolamine-induced and corticosterone-induced), Environmental (Aluminium-induced and noise-stress) and physiological (natural aging) models in rats in a single experimental study across three cognitive domains spatial, recognition, and associative memory and associated alterations in their oxidative status and neurochemical profile to select appropriate dementia model. All groups received their respective treatments for 14days after which behavioural analysis was performed including Open Field test to assess ambulatory activity, Novel Object Recognition test, Morris Water Maze test and Passive Avoidance test for the assessment of recognition, spatial and associative memory. After monitoring the behavioural activities, rats were decapitated and their brains and hippocampus samples were collected for analysis of oxidative status and neurochemical profile. Results showed significant decline in different aspects of memory function in all dementia models which was more significant in scopolamine-injected rats. A significant decline in levels of monoamines and acetylcholine was also observed. In addition, significant alterations were also seen in oxidative profile indicating that cognitive decline could be associated with increased oxidative stress. Therefore, present findings highlight that for planning therapeutic strategies against cognitive dysfunctions, scopolamine-induced dementia model is the most appropriate dementia model to reveal AD-related cognitive impairment profile. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

How Accumulated Real Life Stress Experience and Cognitive Speed Interact on Decision-Making Processes

PubMed Central

Friedel, Eva; Sebold, Miriam; Kuitunen-Paul, Sören; Nebe, Stephan; Veer, Ilya M.; Zimmermann, Ulrich S.; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Smolka, Michael N.; Rapp, Michael; Walter, Henrik; Heinz, Andreas

2017-01-01

Rationale: Advances in neurocomputational modeling suggest that valuation systems for goal-directed (deliberative) on one side, and habitual (automatic) decision-making on the other side may rely on distinct computational strategies for reinforcement learning, namely model-free vs. model-based learning. As a key theoretical difference, the model-based system strongly demands cognitive functions to plan actions prospectively based on an internal cognitive model of the environment, whereas valuation in the model-free system relies on rather simple learning rules from operant conditioning to retrospectively associate actions with their outcomes and is thus cognitively less demanding. Acute stress reactivity is known to impair model-based but not model-free choice behavior, with higher working memory capacity protecting the model-based system from acute stress. However, it is not clear which impact accumulated real life stress has on model-free and model-based decision systems and how this influence interacts with cognitive abilities. Methods: We used a sequential decision-making task distinguishing relative contributions of both learning strategies to choice behavior, the Social Readjustment Rating Scale questionnaire to assess accumulated real life stress, and the Digit Symbol Substitution Test to test cognitive speed in 95 healthy subjects. Results: Individuals reporting high stress exposure who had low cognitive speed showed reduced model-based but increased model-free behavioral control. In contrast, subjects exposed to accumulated real life stress with high cognitive speed displayed increased model-based performance but reduced model-free control. Conclusion: These findings suggest that accumulated real life stress exposure can enhance reliance on cognitive speed for model-based computations, which may ultimately protect the model-based system from the detrimental influences of accumulated real life stress. The combination of accumulated real life stress exposure and slower information processing capacities, however, might favor model-free strategies. Thus, the valence and preference of either system strongly depends on stressful experiences and individual cognitive capacities. PMID:28642696

How Accumulated Real Life Stress Experience and Cognitive Speed Interact on Decision-Making Processes.

PubMed

Friedel, Eva; Sebold, Miriam; Kuitunen-Paul, Sören; Nebe, Stephan; Veer, Ilya M; Zimmermann, Ulrich S; Schlagenhauf, Florian; Smolka, Michael N; Rapp, Michael; Walter, Henrik; Heinz, Andreas

2017-01-01

Rationale: Advances in neurocomputational modeling suggest that valuation systems for goal-directed (deliberative) on one side, and habitual (automatic) decision-making on the other side may rely on distinct computational strategies for reinforcement learning, namely model-free vs. model-based learning. As a key theoretical difference, the model-based system strongly demands cognitive functions to plan actions prospectively based on an internal cognitive model of the environment, whereas valuation in the model-free system relies on rather simple learning rules from operant conditioning to retrospectively associate actions with their outcomes and is thus cognitively less demanding. Acute stress reactivity is known to impair model-based but not model-free choice behavior, with higher working memory capacity protecting the model-based system from acute stress. However, it is not clear which impact accumulated real life stress has on model-free and model-based decision systems and how this influence interacts with cognitive abilities. Methods: We used a sequential decision-making task distinguishing relative contributions of both learning strategies to choice behavior, the Social Readjustment Rating Scale questionnaire to assess accumulated real life stress, and the Digit Symbol Substitution Test to test cognitive speed in 95 healthy subjects. Results: Individuals reporting high stress exposure who had low cognitive speed showed reduced model-based but increased model-free behavioral control. In contrast, subjects exposed to accumulated real life stress with high cognitive speed displayed increased model-based performance but reduced model-free control. Conclusion: These findings suggest that accumulated real life stress exposure can enhance reliance on cognitive speed for model-based computations, which may ultimately protect the model-based system from the detrimental influences of accumulated real life stress. The combination of accumulated real life stress exposure and slower information processing capacities, however, might favor model-free strategies. Thus, the valence and preference of either system strongly depends on stressful experiences and individual cognitive capacities.

Fun with maths: exploring implications of mathematical models for malaria eradication.

PubMed

Eckhoff, Philip A; Bever, Caitlin A; Gerardin, Jaline; Wenger, Edward A

2014-12-11

Mathematical analyses and modelling have an important role informing malaria eradication strategies. Simple mathematical approaches can answer many questions, but it is important to investigate their assumptions and to test whether simple assumptions affect the results. In this note, four examples demonstrate both the effects of model structures and assumptions and also the benefits of using a diversity of model approaches. These examples include the time to eradication, the impact of vaccine efficacy and coverage, drug programs and the effects of duration of infections and delays to treatment, and the influence of seasonality and migration coupling on disease fadeout. An excessively simple structure can miss key results, but simple mathematical approaches can still achieve key results for eradication strategy and define areas for investigation by more complex models.

Adaptive Control Strategies for Flexible Robotic Arm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bialasiewicz, Jan T.

1996-01-01

The control problem of a flexible robotic arm has been investigated. The control strategies that have been developed have a wide application in approaching the general control problem of flexible space structures. The following control strategies have been developed and evaluated: neural self-tuning control algorithm, neural-network-based fuzzy logic control algorithm, and adaptive pole assignment algorithm. All of the above algorithms have been tested through computer simulation. In addition, the hardware implementation of a computer control system that controls the tip position of a flexible arm clamped on a rigid hub mounted directly on the vertical shaft of a dc motor, has been developed. An adaptive pole assignment algorithm has been applied to suppress vibrations of the described physical model of flexible robotic arm and has been successfully tested using this testbed.

Managing emergencies and abnormal situations in air traffic control (part II): teamwork strategies.

PubMed

Malakis, Stathis; Kontogiannis, Tom; Kirwan, Barry

2010-07-01

Team performance has been studied in many safety-critical organizations including aviation, nuclear power plant, offshore oil platforms and health organizations. This study looks into teamwork strategies that air traffic controllers employ to manage emergencies and abnormal situations. Two field studies were carried out in the form of observations of simulator training in emergency and unusual scenarios of novices and experienced controllers. Teamwork strategies covered aspects of team orientation and coordination, information exchange, change management and error handling. Several performance metrics were used to rate the efficiency of teamwork and test the construct validity of a prototype model of teamwork. This is a companion study to an earlier investigation of taskwork strategies in the same field (part I) and contributes to the development of a generic model for Taskwork and Teamwork strategies in Emergencies in Air traffic Management (T(2)EAM). Suggestions are made on how to use T(2)EAM to develop training programs, assess team performance and improve mishap investigations. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development strategies for the satellite flight software on-board Meteosat Third Generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tipaldi, Massimo; Legendre, Cedric; Koopmann, Olliver; Ferraguto, Massimo; Wenker, Ralf; D'Angelo, Gianni

2018-04-01

Nowadays, satellites are becoming increasingly software dependent. Satellite Flight Software (FSW), that is to say, the application software running on the satellite main On-Board Computer (OBC), plays a relevant role in implementing complex space mission requirements. In this paper, we examine relevant technical approaches and programmatic strategies adopted for the development of the Meteosat Third Generation Satellite (MTG) FSW. To begin with, we present its layered model-based architecture, and the means for ensuring a robust and reliable interaction among the FSW components. Then, we focus on the selection of an effective software development life cycle model. In particular, by combining plan-driven and agile approaches, we can fulfill the need of having preliminary SW versions. They can be used for the elicitation of complex system-level requirements as well as for the initial satellite integration and testing activities. Another important aspect can be identified in the testing activities. Indeed, very demanding quality requirements have to be fulfilled in satellite SW applications. This manuscript proposes a test automation framework, which uses an XML-based test procedure language independent of the underlying test environment. Finally, a short overview of the MTG FSW sizing and timing budgets concludes the paper.

20170312 - Computer Simulation of Developmental ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rationale: Recent progress in systems toxicology and synthetic biology have paved the way to new thinking about in vitro/in silico modeling of developmental processes and toxicities, both for embryological and reproductive impacts. Novel in vitro platforms such as 3D organotypic culture models, engineered microscale tissues and complex microphysiological systems (MPS), together with computational models and computer simulation of tissue dynamics, lend themselves to a integrated testing strategies for predictive toxicology. As these emergent methodologies continue to evolve, they must be integrally tied to maternal/fetal physiology and toxicity of the developing individual across early lifestage transitions, from fertilization to birth, through puberty and beyond. Scope: This symposium will focus on how the novel technology platforms can help now and in the future, with in vitro/in silico modeling of complex biological systems for developmental and reproductive toxicity issues, and translating systems models into integrative testing strategies. The symposium is based on three main organizing principles: (1) that novel in vitro platforms with human cells configured in nascent tissue architectures with a native microphysiological environments yield mechanistic understanding of developmental and reproductive impacts of drug/chemical exposures; (2) that novel in silico platforms with high-throughput screening (HTS) data, biologically-inspired computational models of

Computer Simulation of Developmental Processes and ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

Rationale: Recent progress in systems toxicology and synthetic biology have paved the way to new thinking about in vitro/in silico modeling of developmental processes and toxicities, both for embryological and reproductive impacts. Novel in vitro platforms such as 3D organotypic culture models, engineered microscale tissues and complex microphysiological systems (MPS), together with computational models and computer simulation of tissue dynamics, lend themselves to a integrated testing strategies for predictive toxicology. As these emergent methodologies continue to evolve, they must be integrally tied to maternal/fetal physiology and toxicity of the developing individual across early lifestage transitions, from fertilization to birth, through puberty and beyond. Scope: This symposium will focus on how the novel technology platforms can help now and in the future, with in vitro/in silico modeling of complex biological systems for developmental and reproductive toxicity issues, and translating systems models into integrative testing strategies. The symposium is based on three main organizing principles: (1) that novel in vitro platforms with human cells configured in nascent tissue architectures with a native microphysiological environments yield mechanistic understanding of developmental and reproductive impacts of drug/chemical exposures; (2) that novel in silico platforms with high-throughput screening (HTS) data, biologically-inspired computational models of

Constructing and Deconstructing Concepts.

PubMed

Doan, Charles A; Vigo, Ronaldo

2016-09-01

Several empirical investigations have explored whether observers prefer to sort sets of multidimensional stimuli into groups by employing one-dimensional or family-resemblance strategies. Although one-dimensional sorting strategies have been the prevalent finding for these unsupervised classification paradigms, several researchers have provided evidence that the choice of strategy may depend on the particular demands of the task. To account for this disparity, we propose that observers extract relational patterns from stimulus sets that facilitate the development of optimal classification strategies for relegating category membership. We conducted a novel constrained categorization experiment to empirically test this hypothesis by instructing participants to either add or remove objects from presented categorical stimuli. We employed generalized representational information theory (GRIT; Vigo, 2011b , 2013a , 2014 ) and its associated formal models to predict and explain how human beings chose to modify these categorical stimuli. Additionally, we compared model performance to predictions made by a leading prototypicality measure in the literature.

Analysis of mathematical literacy ability based on self-efficacy in model eliciting activities using metaphorical thinking approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Setiani, C.; Waluya, S. B.; Wardono

2018-03-01

The purposes of this research are: (1) to identify learning quality in Model Eliciting Activities (MEAs) using a Metaphorical Thinking (MT) approach regarding qualitative and quantitative; (2) to analyze mathematical literacy of students based on Self-Efficacy (SE). This research is mixed method concurrent embedded design with qualitative research as the primary method. The quantitative research used quasi-experimental with non-equivalent control group design. The population is VIII grade students of SMP Negeri 3 Semarang Indonesia. Quantitative data is examined by conducting completeness mean test, standard completeness test, mean differentiation test and proportional differentiation test. Qualitative data is analyzed descriptively. The result of this research shows that MEAs learning using MT approach accomplishes good criteria both quantitatively and qualitatively. Students with low self-efficacy can identify problems, but they are lack ability to arrange problem-solving strategy on mathematical literacy questions. Students with medium self-efficacy can identify information provided in issues, but they find difficulties to use math symbols in making a representation. Students with high self-efficacy are excellent to represent problems into mathematical models as well as figures by using appropriate symbols and tools, so they can arrange strategy easily to solve mathematical literacy questions.

Integrated Disposal Facility FY 2012 Glass Testing Summary Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pierce, Eric M.; Kerisit, Sebastien N.; Krogstad, Eirik J.

2013-03-29

PNNL is conducting work to provide the technical basis for estimating radionuclide release from the engineered portion of the disposal facility for Hanford immobilized low-activity waste (ILAW). Before the ILAW can be disposed, DOE must conduct a performance assessment (PA) for the Integrated Disposal Facility (IDF) that describes the long-term impacts of the disposal facility on public health and environmental resources. As part of the ILAW glass testing program, PNNL is implementing a strategy, consisting of experimentation and modeling, to provide the technical basis for estimating radionuclide release from the glass waste form in support of future IDF PAs. Keymore » activities in FY12 include upgrading the STOMP/eSTOMP codes to do near-field modeling, geochemical modeling of PCT tests to determine the reaction network to be used in the STOMP codes, conducting PUF tests on selected glasses to simulate and accelerate glass weathering, developing a Monte Carlo simulation tool to predict the characteristics of the weathered glass reaction layer as a function of glass composition, and characterizing glasses and soil samples exhumed from an 8-year lysimeter test. The purpose of this report is to summarize the progress made in fiscal year (FY) 2012 and the first quarter of FY 2013 toward implementing the strategy with the goal of developing an understanding of the long-term corrosion behavior of LAW glasses.« less

Risk mitigation strategies for operations and maintenance activities.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-04-01

The objective of this research was to investigate the application of integrated risk modeling to operations and maintenance activities, specifically moving operations, such as pavement testing, pavement marking, painting, snow removal, shoulder work,...

A semiparametric graphical modelling approach for large-scale equity selection

PubMed Central

Liu, Han; Mulvey, John; Zhao, Tianqi

2016-01-01

We propose a new stock selection strategy that exploits rebalancing returns and improves portfolio performance. To effectively harvest rebalancing gains, we apply ideas from elliptical-copula graphical modelling and stability inference to select stocks that are as independent as possible. The proposed elliptical-copula graphical model has a latent Gaussian representation; its structure can be effectively inferred using the regularized rank-based estimators. The resulting algorithm is computationally efficient and scales to large data-sets. To show the efficacy of the proposed method, we apply it to conduct equity selection based on a 16-year health care stock data-set and a large 34-year stock data-set. Empirical tests show that the proposed method is superior to alternative strategies including a principal component analysis-based approach and the classical Markowitz strategy based on the traditional buy-and-hold assumption. PMID:28316507

Modeling of genetic gain for single traits from marker-assisted seedling selection in clonally propagated crops

PubMed Central

Ru, Sushan; Hardner, Craig; Carter, Patrick A; Evans, Kate; Main, Dorrie; Peace, Cameron

2016-01-01

Seedling selection identifies superior seedlings as candidate cultivars based on predicted genetic potential for traits of interest. Traditionally, genetic potential is determined by phenotypic evaluation. With the availability of DNA tests for some agronomically important traits, breeders have the opportunity to include DNA information in their seedling selection operations—known as marker-assisted seedling selection. A major challenge in deploying marker-assisted seedling selection in clonally propagated crops is a lack of knowledge in genetic gain achievable from alternative strategies. Existing models based on additive effects considering seed-propagated crops are not directly relevant for seedling selection of clonally propagated crops, as clonal propagation captures all genetic effects, not just additive. This study modeled genetic gain from traditional and various marker-based seedling selection strategies on a single trait basis through analytical derivation and stochastic simulation, based on a generalized seedling selection scheme of clonally propagated crops. Various trait-test scenarios with a range of broad-sense heritability and proportion of genotypic variance explained by DNA markers were simulated for two populations with different segregation patterns. Both derived and simulated results indicated that marker-based strategies tended to achieve higher genetic gain than phenotypic seedling selection for a trait where the proportion of genotypic variance explained by marker information was greater than the broad-sense heritability. Results from this study provides guidance in optimizing genetic gain from seedling selection for single traits where DNA tests providing marker information are available. PMID:27148453

Use of low density lipoprotein particle number levels as an aid in statin treatment decisions for intermediate risk patients: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Shiffman, Dov; Arellano, Andre R; Caulfield, Michael P; Louie, Judy Z; Bare, Lance A; Devlin, James J; Melander, Olle

2016-12-07

The 2013 ACC/AHA guideline recommended either no statin therapy or moderate-intensity statin therapy (MST) for intermediate risk patients-those with 5-7.5% 10-year risk and without cardiovascular disease (CVD), hypercholesterolemia or diabetes. The guideline further suggested that the therapy choice be based on patient-clinician discussions of risks and benefits. Since low-density lipoprotein particle (LDL-P) levels were reported to be associated with CVD independently of traditional risk factors in intermediate and low risk patients, we investigated the cost-effectiveness of using LDL-P levels to identify intermediate risk patients likely to benefit from initiating or intensifying statin therapy. We evaluated 5 care strategies for intermediate risk patients. These included the strategies suggested by the guideline: no-statin therapy and MST. We compared each of these strategies to a related strategy that incorporated LDL-P testing. No-statin therapy was compared with the strategy of MST for those with high LDL-P levels and no statin therapy for all other patients (test-and-MST). MST was compared with the strategy of high-intensity statin therapy (HST) for those with high LDL-P levels and MST for all other patients (test-and-HST). We also evaluated the strategy of HST for all. Costs (payer perspective) and utilities were assessed over a 5-year time horizon in a Markov model of 100,000 hypothetical intermediate risk patients. HST dominated all other strategies, costing less and-despite causing 739 more cases of diabetes than did MST-resulting in more quality adjusted life-years (QALYs). For patient-clinician discussions that would otherwise lead to the MST strategy, we found the test-and-HST strategy reduced costs by $4.67 MM and resulted in 134 fewer CVD events and 115 additional QALYs. For patient-clinician discussions that would otherwise lead to no statin therapy, we found that the test-and-MST strategy reduced costs by $3.25 MM, resulted in 97 fewer CVD events and 44 additional QALYs. The HST strategy was cost saving and improved outcomes in intermediate risk patients. For patient and clinicians concerned about the adverse events associated with HST, using LDL-P levels to target intensified statin therapy could improve outcomes and reduce costs.

Simulation of traffic control signal systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Connolly, P. J.; Concannon, P. A.; Ricci, R. C.

1974-01-01

In recent years there has been considerable interest in the development and testing of control strategies for networks of urban traffic signal systems by simulation. Simulation is an inexpensive and timely method for evaluating the effect of these traffic control strategies since traffic phenomena are too complex to be defined by analytical models and since a controlled experiment may be hazardous, expensive, and slow in producing meaningful results. This paper describes the application of an urban traffic corridor program, to evaluate the effectiveness of different traffic control strategies for the Massachusetts Avenue TOPICS Project.

The cost-effectiveness of different feeding patterns combined with prompt treatments for preventing mother-to-child HIV transmission in South Africa: estimates from simulation modeling.

PubMed

Yu, Wenhua; Li, Changping; Fu, Xiaomeng; Cui, Zhuang; Liu, Xiaoqian; Fan, Linlin; Zhang, Guan; Ma, Jun

2014-01-01

Based on the important changes in South Africa since 2009 and the Antiretroviral Treatment Guideline 2013 recommendations, we explored the cost-effectiveness of different strategy combinations according to the South African HIV-infected mothers' prompt treatments and different feeding patterns. A decision analytic model was applied to simulate cohorts of 10,000 HIV-infected pregnant women to compare the cost-effectiveness of two different HIV strategy combinations: (1) Women were tested and treated promptly at any time during pregnancy (Promptly treated cohort). (2) Women did not get testing or treatment until after delivery and appropriate standard treatments were offered as a remedy (Remedy cohort). Replacement feeding or exclusive breastfeeding was assigned in both strategies. Outcome measures included the number of infant HIV cases averted, the cost per infant HIV case averted, and the cost per life year (LY) saved from the interventions. One-way and multivariate sensitivity analyses were performed to estimate the uncertainty ranges of all outcomes. The remedy strategy does not particularly cost-effective. Compared with the untreated baseline cohort which leads to 1127 infected infants, 698 (61.93%) and 110 (9.76%) of pediatric HIV cases are averted in the promptly treated cohort and remedy cohort respectively, with incremental cost-effectiveness of $68.51 and $118.33 per LY, respectively. With or without the antenatal testing and treatments, breastfeeding is less cost-effective ($193.26 per LY) than replacement feeding ($134.88 per LY), without considering the impact of willingness to pay. Compared with the prompt treatments, remedy in labor or during the postnatal period is less cost-effective. Antenatal HIV testing and prompt treatments and avoiding breastfeeding are the best strategies. Although encouraging mothers to practice replacement feeding in South Africa is far from easy and the advantages of breastfeeding can not be ignored, we still suggest choosing replacement feeding as far as possible.

Economic and developmental considerations for pharmacogenomic technology.

PubMed

Vernon, John A; Johnson, Scott J; Hughen, W Keener; Trujillo, Antonio

2006-01-01

The pharmaceutical industry's core business is the innovation, development and marketing of new drugs. Pharmacogenetic (PG) testing and technology has the potential to increase a drug's value in many ways. A critical issue for the industry is whether products in development should be teamed with genetic tests that could segment the total population into responders and non-responders. In this paper we use a cost-effectiveness framework to model the strategic decision-making considerations by pharmaceutical manufacturers as they relate to drug development and the new technology of PG (the science of using genetic markers to predict drug response). In a simple, static, one-period model we consider three drug development strategies: a drug is exclusively developed and marketed to patients with a particular genetic marker; no distinguishing among patients based on the expression of a genetic marker is made (traditional approach); and a strategy whereby a drug is marketed to patients both with and without the genetic marker but there is price discrimination between the two subpopulations. We developed three main principles: revenues under a strategy targeting only the responder subpopulation will never generate more revenue than that which could have been obtained under a traditional approach; total revenues under a targeted PG strategy will be less than that under a traditional approach but higher than a naive [corrected] view would believe them to be; and a traditional [corrected] approach will earn the same total revenues as a price discrimination strategy, assuming no intermarket arbitrage. While these principles relate to the singular (and quite narrow) consideration of drug revenues, they may nevertheless partially explain why PG is not being used as widely as was predicted several years ago when the technology first became available, especially in terms of pharmaceutical manufacturer-developed tests.

Strategies for memory-based decision making: Modeling behavioral and neural signatures within a cognitive architecture.

PubMed

Fechner, Hanna B; Pachur, Thorsten; Schooler, Lael J; Mehlhorn, Katja; Battal, Ceren; Volz, Kirsten G; Borst, Jelmer P

2016-12-01

How do people use memories to make inferences about real-world objects? We tested three strategies based on predicted patterns of response times and blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) responses: one strategy that relies solely on recognition memory, a second that retrieves additional knowledge, and a third, lexicographic (i.e., sequential) strategy, that considers knowledge conditionally on the evidence obtained from recognition memory. We implemented the strategies as computational models within the Adaptive Control of Thought-Rational (ACT-R) cognitive architecture, which allowed us to derive behavioral and neural predictions that we then compared to the results of a functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) study in which participants inferred which of two cities is larger. Overall, versions of the lexicographic strategy, according to which knowledge about many but not all alternatives is searched, provided the best account of the joint patterns of response times and BOLD responses. These results provide insights into the interplay between recognition and additional knowledge in memory, hinting at an adaptive use of these two sources of information in decision making. The results highlight the usefulness of implementing models of decision making within a cognitive architecture to derive predictions on the behavioral and neural level. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cost-effectiveness of magnetic resonance imaging with a new contrast agent for the early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Biasutti, Maria; Dufour, Natacha; Ferroud, Clotilde; Dab, William; Temime, Laura

2012-01-01

Used as contrast agents for brain magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), markers for beta-amyloid deposits might allow early diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD). We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of such a diagnostic test, MRI+CLP (contrastophore-linker-pharmacophore), should it become clinically available. We compared the cost-effectiveness of MRI+CLP to that of standard diagnosis using currently available cognition tests and of standard MRI, and investigated the impact of a hypothetical treatment efficient in early AD. The primary analysis was based on the current French context for 70-year-old patients with Mild Cognitive Impairment (MCI). In alternative "screen and treat" scenarios, we analyzed the consequences of systematic screenings of over-60 individuals (either population-wide or restricted to the ApoE4 genotype population). We used a Markov model of AD progression; model parameters, as well as incurred costs and quality-of-life weights in France were taken from the literature. We performed univariate and probabilistic multivariate sensitivity analyses. The base-case preferred strategy was the standard MRI diagnosis strategy. In the primary analysis however, MRI+CLP could become the preferred strategy under a wide array of scenarios involving lower cost and/or higher sensitivity or specificity. By contrast, in the "screen and treat" analyses, the probability of MRI+CLP becoming the preferred strategy remained lower than 5%. It is thought that anti-beta-amyloid compounds might halt the development of dementia in early stage patients. This study suggests that, even should such treatments become available, systematically screening the over-60 population for AD would only become cost-effective with highly specific tests able to diagnose early stages of the disease. However, offering a new diagnostic test based on beta-amyloid markers to elderly patients with MCI might prove cost-effective.

Modelling the Costs and Effects of Selective and Universal Hospital Admission Screening for Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus

PubMed Central

Hubben, Gijs; Bootsma, Martin; Luteijn, Michiel; Glynn, Diarmuid; Bishai, David

2011-01-01

Background Screening at hospital admission for carriage of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) has been proposed as a strategy to reduce nosocomial infections. The objective of this study was to determine the long-term costs and health benefits of selective and universal screening for MRSA at hospital admission, using both PCR-based and chromogenic media-based tests in various settings. Methodology/Principal Findings A simulation model of MRSA transmission was used to determine costs and effects over 15 years from a US healthcare perspective. We compared admission screening together with isolation of identified carriers against a baseline policy without screening or isolation. Strategies included selective screening of high risk patients or universal admission screening, with PCR-based or chromogenic media-based tests, in medium (5%) or high nosocomial prevalence (15%) settings. The costs of screening and isolation per averted MRSA infection were lowest using selective chromogenic-based screening in high and medium prevalence settings, at $4,100 and $10,300, respectively. Replacing the chromogenic-based test with a PCR-based test costs $13,000 and $36,200 per additional infection averted, and subsequent extension to universal screening with PCR would cost $131,000 and $232,700 per additional infection averted, in high and medium prevalence settings respectively. Assuming $17,645 benefit per infection averted, the most cost-saving strategies in high and medium prevalence settings were selective screening with PCR and selective screening with chromogenic, respectively. Conclusions/Significance Admission screening costs $4,100–$21,200 per infection averted, depending on strategy and setting. Including financial benefits from averted infections, screening could well be cost saving. PMID:21483492

In Vivo Models of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Persistence and Cure Strategies

PubMed Central

Mavigner, Maud; Silvestri, Guido; Garcia, J. Victor

2017-01-01

Abstract Current HIV therapy is not curative regardless of how soon after infection it is initiated or how long it is administered, and therapy interruption almost invariably results in robust viral rebound. Human immunodeficiency virus persistence is therefore the major obstacle to a cure for AIDS. The testing and implementation of novel yet unproven approaches to HIV eradication that could compromise the health status of HIV-infected individuals might not be ethically warranted. Therefore, adequate in vitro and in vivo evidence of efficacy is needed to facilitate the clinical implementation of promising strategies for an HIV cure. Animal models of HIV infection have a strong and well-documented history of bridging the gap between laboratory discoveries and eventual clinical implementation. More recently, animal models have been developed and implemented for the in vivo evaluation of novel HIV cure strategies. In this article, we review the recent progress in this rapidly moving area of research, focusing on the two most promising model systems: humanized mice and nonhuman primates. PMID:28520967

The Diagnosis of Urinary Tract Infection in Young Children (DUTY) Study Clinical Rule: Economic Evaluation.

PubMed

Hollingworth, William; Busby, John; Butler, Christopher C; O'Brien, Kathryn; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Hood, Kerenza; Little, Paul; Lawton, Michael; Birnie, Kate; Thomas-Jones, Emma; Harman, Kim; Hay, Alastair D

2017-04-01

To estimate the cost-effectiveness of a two-step clinical rule using symptoms, signs and dipstick testing to guide the diagnosis and antibiotic treatment of urinary tract infection (UTI) in acutely unwell young children presenting to primary care. Decision analytic model synthesising data from a multicentre, prospective cohort study (DUTY) and the wider literature to estimate the short-term and lifetime costs and healthcare outcomes (symptomatic days, recurrent UTI, quality adjusted life years) of eight diagnostic strategies. We compared GP clinical judgement with three strategies based on a 'coefficient score' combining seven symptoms and signs independently associated with UTI and four strategies based on weighted scores according to the presence/absence of five symptoms and signs. We compared dipstick testing versus laboratory culture in children at intermediate risk of UTI. Sampling, culture and antibiotic costs were lowest in high-specificity DUTY strategies (£1.22 and £1.08) compared to clinical judgement (£1.99). These strategies also approximately halved urine sampling (4.8% versus 9.1% in clinical judgement) without reducing sensitivity (58.2% versus 56.4%). Outcomes were very similar across all diagnostic strategies. High-specificity DUTY strategies were more cost-effective than clinical judgement in the short- (iNMB = £0.78 and £0.84) and long-term (iNMB =£2.31 and £2.50). Dipstick tests had poorer cost-effectiveness than laboratory culture in children at intermediate risk of UTI (iNMB = £-1.41). Compared to GPs' clinical judgement, high specificity clinical rules from the DUTY study could substantially reduce urine sampling, achieving lower costs and equivalent patient outcomes. Dipstick testing children for UTI is not cost-effective. Copyright © 2017 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Random Testing and Model Checking: Building a Common Framework for Nondeterministic Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Groce, Alex; Joshi, Rajeev

2008-01-01

Two popular forms of dynamic analysis, random testing and explicit-state software model checking, are perhaps best viewed as search strategies for exploring the state spaces introduced by nondeterminism in program inputs. We present an approach that enables this nondeterminism to be expressed in the SPIN model checker's PROMELA language, and then lets users generate either model checkers or random testers from a single harness for a tested C program. Our approach makes it easy to compare model checking and random testing for models with precisely the same input ranges and probabilities and allows us to mix random testing with model checking's exhaustive exploration of non-determinism. The PROMELA language, as intended in its design, serves as a convenient notation for expressing nondeterminism and mixing random choices with nondeterministic choices. We present and discuss a comparison of random testing and model checking. The results derive from using our framework to test a C program with an effectively infinite state space, a module in JPL's next Mars rover mission. More generally, we show how the ability of the SPIN model checker to call C code can be used to extend SPIN's features, and hope to inspire others to use the same methods to implement dynamic analyses that can make use of efficient state storage, matching, and backtracking.

Traumatic Brain Injury – Modeling Neuropsychiatric Symptoms in Rodents

PubMed Central

Malkesman, Oz; Tucker, Laura B.; Ozl, Jessica; McCabe, Joseph T.

2013-01-01

Each year in the US, ∼1.5 million people sustain a traumatic brain injury (TBI). Victims of TBI can suffer from chronic post-TBI symptoms, such as sensory and motor deficits, cognitive impairments including problems with memory, learning, and attention, and neuropsychiatric symptoms such as depression, anxiety, irritability, aggression, and suicidal rumination. Although partially associated with the site and severity of injury, the biological mechanisms associated with many of these symptoms – and why some patients experience differing assortments of persistent maladies – are largely unknown. The use of animal models is a promising strategy for elucidation of the mechanisms of impairment and treatment, and learning, memory, sensory, and motor tests have widespread utility in rodent models of TBI and psychopharmacology. Comparatively, behavioral tests for the evaluation of neuropsychiatric symptomatology are rarely employed in animal models of TBI and, as determined in this review, the results have been inconsistent. Animal behavioral studies contribute to the understanding of the biological mechanisms by which TBI is associated with neurobehavioral symptoms and offer a powerful means for pre-clinical treatment validation. Therefore, further exploration of the utility of animal behavioral tests for the study of injury mechanisms and therapeutic strategies for the alleviation of emotional symptoms are relevant and essential. PMID:24109476

An improved PSO-SVM model for online recognition defects in eddy current testing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Baoling; Hou, Dibo; Huang, Pingjie; Liu, Banteng; Tang, Huayi; Zhang, Wubo; Chen, Peihua; Zhang, Guangxin

2013-12-01

Accurate and rapid recognition of defects is essential for structural integrity and health monitoring of in-service device using eddy current (EC) non-destructive testing. This paper introduces a novel model-free method that includes three main modules: a signal pre-processing module, a classifier module and an optimisation module. In the signal pre-processing module, a kind of two-stage differential structure is proposed to suppress the lift-off fluctuation that could contaminate the EC signal. In the classifier module, multi-class support vector machine (SVM) based on one-against-one strategy is utilised for its good accuracy. In the optimisation module, the optimal parameters of classifier are obtained by an improved particle swarm optimisation (IPSO) algorithm. The proposed IPSO technique can improve convergence performance of the primary PSO through the following strategies: nonlinear processing of inertia weight, introductions of the black hole and simulated annealing model with extremum disturbance. The good generalisation ability of the IPSO-SVM model has been validated through adding additional specimen into the testing set. Experiments show that the proposed algorithm can achieve higher recognition accuracy and efficiency than other well-known classifiers and the superiorities are more obvious with less training set, which contributes to online application.

Concise review: humanized models of tumor immunology in the 21st century: convergence of cancer research and tissue engineering.

PubMed

Holzapfel, Boris Michael; Wagner, Ferdinand; Thibaudeau, Laure; Levesque, Jean-Pierre; Hutmacher, Dietmar Werner

2015-06-01

Despite positive testing in animal studies, more than 80% of novel drug candidates fail to proof their efficacy when tested in humans. This is primarily due to the use of preclinical models that are not able to recapitulate the physiological or pathological processes in humans. Hence, one of the key challenges in the field of translational medicine is to "make the model organism mouse more human." To get answers to questions that would be prognostic of outcomes in human medicine, the mouse's genome can be altered in order to create a more permissive host that allows the engraftment of human cell systems. It has been shown in the past that these strategies can improve our understanding of tumor immunology. However, the translational benefits of these platforms have still to be proven. In the 21st century, several research groups and consortia around the world take up the challenge to improve our understanding of how to humanize the animal's genetic code, its cells and, based on tissue engineering principles, its extracellular microenvironment, its tissues, or entire organs with the ultimate goal to foster the translation of new therapeutic strategies from bench to bedside. This article provides an overview of the state of the art of humanized models of tumor immunology and highlights future developments in the field such as the application of tissue engineering and regenerative medicine strategies to further enhance humanized murine model systems. © 2015 AlphaMed Press.

Novel Design Strategy for Checkpoint Kinase 2 Inhibitors Using Pharmacophore Modeling, Combinatorial Fusion, and Virtual Screening

PubMed Central

Wang, Yen-Ling

2014-01-01

Checkpoint kinase 2 (Chk2) has a great effect on DNA-damage and plays an important role in response to DNA double-strand breaks and related lesions. In this study, we will concentrate on Chk2 and the purpose is to find the potential inhibitors by the pharmacophore hypotheses (PhModels), combinatorial fusion, and virtual screening techniques. Applying combinatorial fusion into PhModels and virtual screening techniques is a novel design strategy for drug design. We used combinatorial fusion to analyze the prediction results and then obtained the best correlation coefficient of the testing set (r test) with the value 0.816 by combining the BesttrainBesttest and FasttrainFasttest prediction results. The potential inhibitors were selected from NCI database by screening according to BesttrainBesttest + FasttrainFasttest prediction results and molecular docking with CDOCKER docking program. Finally, the selected compounds have high interaction energy between a ligand and a receptor. Through these approaches, 23 potential inhibitors for Chk2 are retrieved for further study. PMID:24864236

An Examination of the Impact of Harsh Parenting Contexts on Children's Adaptation within an Evolutionary Framework

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sturge-Apple, Melissa L.; Davies, Patrick T.; Martin, Meredith J.; Cicchetti, Dante; Hentges, Rochelle F.

2012-01-01

The current study tests whether propositions set forth in an evolutionary model of temperament (Korte, Koolhaas, Wingfield, & McEwen, 2005) may enhance our understanding of children's differential susceptibility to unsupportive and harsh caregiving practices. Guided by this model, we examined whether children's behavioral strategies for coping…

The Integration of Psycholinguistic and Discourse Processing Theories of Reading Comprehension.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Beebe, Mona J.

To assess the compatibility of miscue analysis and recall analysis as independent elements in a theory of reading comprehension, a study was performed that operationalized each theory and separated its components into measurable units to allow empirical testing. A cueing strategy model was estimated, but the discourse processing model was broken…

On a problematic procedure to manipulate response biases in recognition experiments: the case of "implied" base rates.

PubMed

Bröder, Arndt; Malejka, Simone

2017-07-01

The experimental manipulation of response biases in recognition-memory tests is an important means for testing recognition models and for estimating their parameters. The textbook manipulations for binary-response formats either vary the payoff scheme or the base rate of targets in the recognition test, with the latter being the more frequently applied procedure. However, some published studies reverted to implying different base rates by instruction rather than actually changing them. Aside from unnecessarily deceiving participants, this procedure may lead to cognitive conflicts that prompt response strategies unknown to the experimenter. To test our objection, implied base rates were compared to actual base rates in a recognition experiment followed by a post-experimental interview to assess participants' response strategies. The behavioural data show that recognition-memory performance was estimated to be lower in the implied base-rate condition. The interview data demonstrate that participants used various second-order response strategies that jeopardise the interpretability of the recognition data. We thus advice researchers against substituting actual base rates with implied base rates.

Relationships between appraisals of caregiver communication strategies and burden among spouses and adult children.

PubMed

Savundranayagam, Marie Y; Orange, J B

2011-11-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of caregivers' appraisals of the effectiveness of their own communication strategies on caregiver burden when caring for family members with Alzheimer's disease (AD). Family caregivers (N = 84) of participants with AD completed questionnaires appraising communication strategies, problem behaviors, and levels of three types of burden. Hierarchical linear regression models revealed that effective strategies and kinship status were significantly linked with stress burden, whereas effective strategies and problem behaviors were significantly related to relationship burden. Cognitive status of participants with AD significantly predicted objective burden. Caregivers who rated effective strategies as helpful were more likely to experience lower levels of stress and relationship burden. Findings provide preliminary support for understanding mechanisms by which the appraisals of communication strategies influence caregiver burden and justify testing empirically derived communication interventions.

Testing the tenets of minority stress theory in workplace contexts.

PubMed

Velez, Brandon L; Moradi, Bonnie; Brewster, Melanie E

2013-10-01

The links of minority stressors (workplace discrimination, expectations of stigma, internalized heterosexism, and identity management strategies) with psychological distress and job satisfaction were examined in a sample of 326 sexual minority employees. Drawing from minority stress theory and the literature on the vocational experiences of sexual minority people, patterns of mediation and moderation were tested. Minority stressors were associated with greater distress and lower job satisfaction. A mediation model was supported in which the links of discrimination and internalized heterosexism with psychological distress were mediated by a concealment-focused identity management strategy (i.e., avoiding), and the links of discrimination, expectations of stigma, and internalized heterosexism with job satisfaction were mediated by a disclosure-focused identity management strategy (i.e., integrating). Tests of moderation indicated that for sexual minority women (but not men), the positive association of discrimination with distress was stronger at higher levels of internalized heterosexism than at lower levels. In addition, lower levels of internalized heterosexism and concealment strategies (i.e., counterfeiting and avoiding) and higher levels of a disclosure strategy (i.e., integrating) were associated with higher job satisfaction in the context of low discrimination, but this buffering effect disappeared as level of discrimination increased. The implications of these findings for minority stress research are discussed, and clinical recommendations are made.

The Students' Perceptions of School Success Promoting Strategies Inventory (SPSI): development and validity evidence based studies.

PubMed

Moreira, Paulo A S; Oliveira, João Tiago; Dias, Paulo; Vaz, Filipa Machado; Torres-Oliveira, Isabel

2014-08-04

Students' perceptions about school success promotion strategies are of great importance for schools, as they are an indicator of how students perceive the school success promotion strategies. The objective of this study was to develop and analyze the validity evidence based of The Students' Perceptions of School Success Promoting Strategies Inventory (SPSI), which assesses both individual students' perceptions of their school success promoting strategies, and dimensions of school quality. A structure of 7 related factors was found, which showed good adjustment indices in two additional different samples, suggesting that this is a well-fitting multi-group model (p < .001). All scales presented good reliability values. Schools with good academic results registered higher values in Career development, Active learning, Proximity, Educational Technologies and Extra-curricular activities (p < .05). SPSI showed to be adequate to measure within-schools (students within schools) dimensions of school success. In addition, there is preliminary evidence for its adequacy for measuring school success promotion dimensions between schools for 4 dimensions. This study supports the validity evidence based of the SPSI (validity evidence based on test content, on internal structure, on relations to other variables and on consequences of testing). Future studies should test for within- and between-level variance in a bigger sample of schools.

A photochemical strategy for lignin degradation at room temperature.

PubMed

Nguyen, John D; Matsuura, Bryan S; Stephenson, Corey R J

2014-01-29

The development of a room-temperature lignin degradation strategy consisting of a chemoselective benzylic oxidation with a recyclable oxidant ([4-AcNH-TEMPO]BF4) and a catalytic reductive C-O bond cleavage utilizing the photocatalyst [Ir(ppy)2(dtbbpy)]PF6 is described. This system was tested on relevant lignin model substrates containing β-O-4 linkages to generate fragmentation products in good to excellent yields.

Testing a Hypothesis for the Evolution of Sex

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Örçal, Bora; Tüzel, Erkan; Sevim, Volkan; Jan, Naeem; Erzan, Ayşe.

An asexual set of primitive bacteria is simulated with a bit-string Penna model with a Fermi function for survival. A recent hypothesis by Jan, Stauffer, and Moseley on the evolution of sex from asexual cells as a strategy for trying to escape the effects of deleterious mutations is checked. This strategy is found to provide a successful scenario for the evolution of a stable macroscopic sexual population.

Stress and Quality of Life in Breast Cancer Recurrence: Moderation or Mediation of Coping?

PubMed Central

Yang, Hae-Chung; Brothers, Brittany M.; Andersen, Barbara L.

2008-01-01

Background/Purpose Diagnosis with breast cancer recurrence often brings high levels of stress. Successful coping to alleviate stress could improve patients' quality of life (QoL). The intervening role coping plays between stress and QoL may depend on the types of stress encountered and the types of coping strategies used. The present study investigates the longitudinal relationships between stress, coping, and mental health QoL. Methods Breast cancer patients recently diagnosed with recurrence (N=65) were assessed shortly after the diagnosis and 4 months later. Four moderation and four mediation models were tested using hierarchical multiple regressions and path analyses. In the models, either traumatic stress or symptom-related stress at recurrence diagnosis was a predictor of mental health QoL at follow-up. Both engagement and disengagement coping strategies were tested as moderators or mediators between stress and QoL. Results Engagement coping moderated the effect of symptom stress on mental health QoL, whereas disengagement coping mediated the effects of both traumatic stress and symptom stress on mental health QoL. Conclusion The findings imply that interventions teaching engagement coping strategies would be important for patients experiencing high symptom stress, while discouraging the use of disengagement coping strategies would be important for all patients. PMID:18347897

A Strategy to Conduct an Analysis of the Long-Term Performance of Low-Activity Waste Glass in a Shallow Subsurface Disposal System at Hanford

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BP McGrail, WL Ebert, DH Bacon, DM Strachan

1998-02-18

Privatized services are being procured to vitrify low-activity tank wastes for eventual disposal in a shallow subsurface facility at the Hanford Site. Over 500,000 metric tons of low-activity waste glass will be generated, which is among the largest volumes of waste within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) complex and is one of the largest inventories of long-lived radionuclides planned for disposal in a low-level waste facility. Before immobilized waste can be disposed, DOE must approve a "performance assessment," which is a document that describes the impacts of the disposal facility on public health and environmental resources. Because the releasemore » rate of radionuclides from the glass waste form is a key factor determining these impacts, a sound scientific basis for determining their long-term release rates must be developed if this disposal action is to be accepted by regulatory agencies, stakeholders, and the public. In part, the scientific basis is determined from a sound testing strategy. The foundation of the proposed testing strategy is a well accepted mechanistic model that is being used to calculate the glass corrosion behavior over the geologic time scales required for performance assessment. This model requires that six parameters be determined, and the testing program is defined by an appropriate set of laboratory experiments to determine these parameters, and is combined with a set of field experiments to validate the model as a whole. Three general classes of laboratory tests are proposed in this strategy: 1) characterization, 2) accelerated, and 3) service condition. Characterization tests isolate and provide specific information about processes or parameters in theoretical models. Accelerated tests investigate corrosion behavior that will be important over the regulated service life of a disposal system within a laboratory time frame of a few years or less. Service condition tests verify that the techniques used in accelerated tests do not change the alteration mechanisms. The recommended characterization tests are single-pass flow-through tests using a batch reactor design, Accelerated and service conditions tests include product consistency and pressurized unsaturated flow (PUF) tests. Nonradioactive glasses will be used for the majority of the laboratory testing (-80%), with the remainder performed with glasses containing a selected set of key radionuclides. Additionally, a series of PUF experiments with a natural analog of basaltic glass is recommended to confirm that the alteration products observed under accelerated conditions in the PUF tests are similar to those found associated with the natural analog. This will provide additional confidence in using the PUF test results to infer long-term corrosion behavior. Field tests are proposed as a unique way to validate the glass corrosion and contaminant transport models being used in the performance assessment. To better control the test conditions, the field tests are to be performed in lysimeters (corrugated steel containers buried flush with the ground surface). Lysimeters provide a way to combine a glass, Hanford soil, and perhaps other engineered materials in a well-controlled test, but on a scale that is not practicable in the laboratory. The recommended field tests include some experiments where a steady flow rate of water is artificially applied. These tests use a glass designed to have a high corrosion rate so that it is easier to monitor contaminant release and transport. Existing lysimeters at the Hanford Site can be used for these experiments or new lysimeters that have been equipped with the latest in monitoring equipment and located near the proposed disposal site.« less

Decision analytic models for Alzheimer's disease: state of the art and future directions.

PubMed

Cohen, Joshua T; Neumann, Peter J

2008-05-01

Decision analytic policy models for Alzheimer's disease (AD) enable researchers and policy makers to investigate questions about the costs and benefits of a wide range of existing and potential screening, testing, and treatment strategies. Such models permit analysts to compare existing alternatives, explore hypothetical scenarios, and test the strength of underlying assumptions in an explicit, quantitative, and systematic way. Decision analytic models can best be viewed as complementing clinical trials both by filling knowledge gaps not readily addressed by empirical research and by extrapolating beyond the surrogate markers recorded in a trial. We identified and critiqued 13 distinct AD decision analytic policy models published since 1997. Although existing models provide useful insights, they also have a variety of limitations. (1) They generally characterize disease progression in terms of cognitive function and do not account for other distinguishing features, such as behavioral symptoms, functional performance, and the emotional well-being of AD patients and caregivers. (2) Many describe disease progression in terms of a limited number of discrete states, thus constraining the level of detail that can be used to characterize both changes in patient status and the relationships between disease progression and other factors, such as residential status, that influence outcomes of interest. (3) They have focused almost exclusively on evaluating drug treatments, thus neglecting other disease management strategies and combinations of pharmacologic and nonpharmacologic interventions. Future AD models should facilitate more realistic and compelling evaluations of various interventions to address the disease. An improved model will allow decision makers to better characterize the disease, to better assess the costs and benefits of a wide range of potential interventions, and to better evaluate the incremental costs and benefits of specific interventions used in conjunction with other disease management strategies.

Experimental comparisons of hypothesis test and moving average based combustion phase controllers.

PubMed

Gao, Jinwu; Wu, Yuhu; Shen, Tielong

2016-11-01

For engine control, combustion phase is the most effective and direct parameter to improve fuel efficiency. In this paper, the statistical control strategy based on hypothesis test criterion is discussed. Taking location of peak pressure (LPP) as combustion phase indicator, the statistical model of LPP is first proposed, and then the controller design method is discussed on the basis of both Z and T tests. For comparison, moving average based control strategy is also presented and implemented in this study. The experiments on a spark ignition gasoline engine at various operating conditions show that the hypothesis test based controller is able to regulate LPP close to set point while maintaining the rapid transient response, and the variance of LPP is also well constrained. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Arms races and the evolution of big fierce societies.

PubMed

Boswell, G P; Franks, N R; Britton, N F

2001-08-22

The causes of biological gigantism have received much attention, but only for individual organisms. What selection pressures might favour the evolution of gigantic societies? Here we consider the largest single-queen insect societies, those of the Old World army ant Dorylus, single colonies of which can have 20 million workers. We propose that colony gigantism in Dorylus arises as a result of an arms race and test this prediction by developing a size-structured mathematical model. We use this model for exploring and potentially explaining differences in colony size, colony aggression and colony propagation strategies in populations of New World army ants Eciton and Old World army ants Dorylus. The model shows that, by determining evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs), differences in the trophic levels at which these army ants live feed forwards into differences in their densities and collision rates and, hence, into different strategies of growth, aggression and propagation. The model predicts large colony size and the occurrence of battles and a colony-propagation strategy involving highly asymmetrical divisions in Dorylus and that Eciton colonies should be smaller, non-combative and exhibit equitable binary fission. These ESSs are in excellent agreement with field observations and demonstrate that gargantuan societies can arise through arms races.

Single-process versus multiple-strategy models of decision making: evidence from an information intrusion paradigm.

PubMed

Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt; Glöckner, Andreas; Betsch, Tilmann

2014-02-01

When decision makers are confronted with different problems and situations, do they use a uniform mechanism as assumed by single-process models (SPMs) or do they choose adaptively from a set of available decision strategies as multiple-strategy models (MSMs) imply? Both frameworks of decision making have gathered a lot of support, but only rarely have they been contrasted with each other. Employing an information intrusion paradigm for multi-attribute decisions from givens, SPM and MSM predictions on information search, decision outcomes, attention, and confidence judgments were derived and tested against each other in two experiments. The results consistently support the SPM view: Participants seemingly using a "take-the-best" (TTB) strategy do not ignore TTB-irrelevant information as MSMs would predict, but adapt the amount of information searched, choose alternative choice options, and show varying confidence judgments contingent on the quality of the "irrelevant" information. The uniformity of these findings underlines the adequacy of the novel information intrusion paradigm and comprehensively promotes the notion of a uniform decision making mechanism as assumed by single-process models. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Construction of a Computerized Adaptive Testing Version of the Quebec Adaptive Behavior Scale.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tasse, Marc J.; And Others

Multilog (Thissen, 1991) was used to estimate parameters of 225 items from the Quebec Adaptive Behavior Scale (QABS). A database containing actual data from 2,439 subjects was used for the parameterization procedures. The two-parameter-logistic model was used in estimating item parameters and in the testing strategy. MicroCAT (Assessment Systems…

Relationships between stress, coping and depressive symptoms among overseas university preparatory Chinese students: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Mental health problems in young people are an important public health issue. Students leaving their hometown and family at a young age to pursue better educational opportunities overseas are confronted with life adjustment stress, which in turn affects their mental health and academic performance. This study aimed to examine the relationships among stress, coping strategies, and depressive symptoms using the stress coping framework in overseas Chinese university preparatory students in Taiwan. Methods A cross-sectional study was conducted at an overseas Chinese university preparatory institute in Taiwan. Of enrolled overseas Chinese university preparatory students at 2009, 756 completed a structured questionnaire measuring stress, strategies for coping with it, and the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Results High levels of stress significantly predicted the adoption of active, problem-focused coping strategies (R2 = 0.13, p < .01) and passive, emotion-focused coping strategies (R2 = 0.24, p < .01). Acceptable CFI, SRMR, and RMSEA values from the structural equation modeling analysis demonstrated that the model satisfactorily fits the stress coping framework, after active coping strategies were eliminated from the model. Results from the Sobel test revealed that passive coping strategies mediated the relation between stress and depressive symptoms (z = 8.06, p < .001). Conclusion Our study results suggested that stress is associated with coping strategies and depressive symptoms and passive strategies mediate the relation between stress and depressive symptoms in overseas Chinese university preparatory students. PMID:21595974

The Exploitive Mating Strategy of the Dark Triad Traits: Tests of Rape-Enabling Attitudes.

PubMed

Jonason, Peter K; Girgis, Mary; Milne-Home, Josephine

2017-04-01

The Dark Triad traits have been repeatedly labeled as facilitating an exploitive mating strategy. However, various researchers have repeatedly conflated short-term mating or casual sex with an exploitive mating strategy. In this study using Mechanical Turk participants (N = 252; 142 men, 110 women), we provided a better test of just how sexually exploitive those high on the Dark Triad traits might be by examining how the traits related to rape-enabling attitudes. We examined how each trait may facilitate rape, whether these associations were robust to partialing the variance associated with the Big Five traits and similar in men and women, and showed that one reason why men may be more likely to rape than women is they are characterized by the Dark Triad traits more than women are. In so doing, we test the confluence model of rape that asserts that personality traits similar to the Dark Triad traits act as one pathway to rape.

From accuracy to patient outcome and cost-effectiveness evaluations of diagnostic tests and biomarkers: an exemplary modelling study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Proper evaluation of new diagnostic tests is required to reduce overutilization and to limit potential negative health effects and costs related to testing. A decision analytic modelling approach may be worthwhile when a diagnostic randomized controlled trial is not feasible. We demonstrate this by assessing the cost-effectiveness of modified transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) compared with manual palpation for the detection of atherosclerosis in the ascending aorta. Methods Based on a previous diagnostic accuracy study, actual Dutch reimbursement data, and evidence from literature we developed a Markov decision analytic model. Cost-effectiveness of modified TEE was assessed for a life time horizon and a health care perspective. Prevalence rates of atherosclerosis were age-dependent and low as well as high rates were applied. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was applied. Results The model synthesized all available evidence on the risk of stroke in cardiac surgery patients. The modified TEE strategy consistently resulted in more adapted surgical procedures and, hence, a lower risk of stroke and a slightly higher number of life-years. With 10% prevalence of atherosclerosis the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €4,651 and €481 per quality-adjusted life year in 55-year-old men and women, respectively. In all patients aged 65 years or older the modified TEE strategy was cost saving and resulted in additional health benefits. Conclusions Decision analytic modelling to assess the cost-effectiveness of a new diagnostic test based on characteristics, costs and effects of the test itself and of the subsequent treatment options is both feasible and valuable. Our case study on modified TEE suggests that it may reduce the risk of stroke in cardiac surgery patients older than 55 years at acceptable cost-effectiveness levels. PMID:23368927

Integrated testing strategies for toxicity employing new and existing technologies.

PubMed

Combes, Robert D; Balls, Michael

2011-07-01

We have developed individual, integrated testing strategies (ITS) for predicting the toxicity of general chemicals, cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, inhaled chemicals, and nanoparticles. These ITS are based on published schemes developed previously for the risk assessment of chemicals to fulfil the requirements of REACH, which have been updated to take account of the latest developments in advanced in chemico modelling and in vitro technologies. In addition, we propose an ITS for neurotoxicity, based on the same principles, for incorporation in the other ITS. The technologies are deployed in a step-wise manner, as a basis for decision-tree approaches, incorporating weight-of-evidence stages. This means that testing can be stopped at the point where a risk assessment and/or classification can be performed, with labelling in accordance with the requirements of the regulatory authority concerned, rather than following a checklist approach to hazard identification. In addition, the strategies are intelligent, in that they are based on the fundamental premise that there is no hazard in the absence of exposure - which is why pharmacokinetic modelling plays a key role in each ITS. The new technologies include the use of complex, three-dimensional human cell tissue culture systems with in vivo-like structural, physiological and biochemical features, as well as dosing conditions. In this way, problems of inter-species extrapolation and in vitro/in vivo extrapolation are minimised. This is reflected in the ITS placing more emphasis on the use of volunteers at the whole organism testing stage, rather than on existing animal testing, which is the current situation. 2011 FRAME.

A comprehensive theoretical framework for the implementation and evaluation of opt-out HIV testing.

PubMed

Leidel, Stacy; Leslie, Gavin; Boldy, Duncan; Girdler, Sonya

2017-04-01

Opt-out HIV testing (in which patients are offered HIV testing as a default) is a potentially powerful strategy for increasing the number of people who know their HIV status and thus limiting viral transmission. Like any change in clinical practice, implementation of opt-out HIV testing in a health service requires a change management strategy, which should have theoretical support. This paper considers the application of three theories to the implementation and evaluation of an opt-out HIV testing programme: Behavioural Economics, the Health Belief Model and Normalisation Process Theory. An awareness, understanding and integration of these theories may motivate health care providers to order HIV tests that they may not routinely order, influence their beliefs about who should be tested for HIV and inform the operational aspects of opt-out HIV testing. Ongoing process evaluation of opt-out HIV testing programmes (based on these theories) will help to achieve individual health care provider self-efficacy and group collective action, thereby improving testing rates and health outcomes. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Construction of technological artifacts and teaching strategies to promote flexible scientific understanding

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spitulnik, Michele Wisnudel

Science education reforms advocate inquiry as a way to build explanations and make informed decisions. Based on this call this dissertation (1) defines flexible scientific understanding by elaborating on content, inquiry and epistemic understandings; (2) describes an inquiry based unit that integrates dynamic modeling software; (3) examines students' understandings as they construct models; and (4) identifies instructional strategies that support inquiry and model building. A curriculum unit was designed to engage students in inquiry by identifying problems and constructing models to represent, explain and predict phenomena. Ninth grade students in a public mid-western high school worked in teams of 2-3 to ask questions, find information and reflect on the purposes of models. Data sources including classroom video, observations, interviews, student models and handouts were used to formulate cases that examine how two groups construct understanding. A teacher case study identifies the teaching strategies that support understanding. Categories within content, inquiry and epistemic understandings were used to analyze student understandings and teaching supports. The findings demonstrate that students can build flexible understanding by constructing models. Students built: (1) content understanding by identifying key ideas and building relationships and explanations of phenomena; (2) inquiry understanding by defining problems, constructing models and developing positions; and (3) epistemic understanding by describing the purposes of models as generalizing phenomena, testing hypotheses and making predictions. However, students demonstrated difficulty in using evidence to defend scientific arguments. Strategies that support flexible understanding were also identified. Content supports include: setting expectations for explanations; using examples to illustrate explanations; modeling questions; and providing feedback that prompts detailed explanations. Supports for inquiry are setting expectations for data gathering; using examples that illustrate model building; modeling the development of an argument; and providing feedback to promote coherent models. Epistemic supports include: using examples to illustrate purposes and assumptions within models, and providing feedback as students evaluate their models. The dissertation demonstrates that teaching strategies impact student understanding but are challenging to implement. When strategies are not used, students do not necessarily construct desired outcomes such as, using evidence to support arguments.

Comparison of non-landslide sampling strategies to counteract inventory-based biases within national-scale statistical landslide susceptibility models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lima, Pedro; Steger, Stefan; Glade, Thomas

2017-04-01

Landslides can represent a significant threat for people and infrastructure in hilly and mountainous landscapes worldwide. The understanding and prediction of those geomorphic processes is crucial to avoid economic loses or even casualties to people and their properties. Statistical based landslide susceptibility models are well known for being highly reliant on the quality, representativeness and availability of input data. In this context, several studies indicate that the landslide inventory represents the most important input data. However each landslide mapping technique or data collection has its drawbacks. Consequently, biased landslide inventories may be commonly introduced into statistical models, especially at regional or even national scale. It remains to the researcher to be aware of potential limitations and design strategies to avoid or reduce the potential propagation of input data errors and biases influences on the modelling outcomes. Previous studies have proven that such erroneous landslide inventories may lead to unrealistic landslide susceptibility maps. We assume that one possibility to tackle systematic landslide inventory-based biases might be a concentration on sampling strategies that focus on the distribution of non-landslide locations. For this purpose, we test an approach for the Austrian territory that concentrates on a modified non-landslide sampling strategy, instead the traditional applied random sampling. It is expected that the way non-landslide locations are represented (e.g. equally over the area or within those areas where mapping campaigns have been conducted) is important to reduce a potential over- or underestimation of landslide susceptibility within specific areas caused by bias. As presumably each landslide inventory is known to be systematically incomplete, especially in those areas where no mapping campaign was previously conducted. This is also applicable to the one currently available for the Austrian territory, composed by 14,519 shallow landslides. Within this study, we introduce the following explanatory variables to test the effect of different non-landslide strategies: Lithological units, grouped by their geotechnical properties and topographic parameters such as aspect, elevation, slope gradient and the topographic position. Landslide susceptibility maps will be derived by applying logistic regression, while systematic comparisons will be carried out based on models created by different non-landslide sampling strategies. Models generated by the conventional random sampling are presented against models based on stratified and clustered sampling strategies. The modelling results will be compared in terms of their prediction performance measured by the AUROC (Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve) obtained by means of a k-fold cross-validation and also by the spatial pattern of the maps. The outcomes of this study are intended to contribute to the understanding on how landslide-inventory based biases may be counteracted.

Current Grid Generation Strategies and Future Requirements in Hypersonic Vehicle Design, Analysis and Testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Papadopoulos, Periklis; Venkatapathy, Ethiraj; Prabhu, Dinesh; Loomis, Mark P.; Olynick, Dave; Arnold, James O. (Technical Monitor)

1998-01-01

Recent advances in computational power enable computational fluid dynamic modeling of increasingly complex configurations. A review of grid generation methodologies implemented in support of the computational work performed for the X-38 and X-33 are presented. In strategizing topological constructs and blocking structures factors considered are the geometric configuration, optimal grid size, numerical algorithms, accuracy requirements, physics of the problem at hand, computational expense, and the available computer hardware. Also addressed are grid refinement strategies, the effects of wall spacing, and convergence. The significance of grid is demonstrated through a comparison of computational and experimental results of the aeroheating environment experienced by the X-38 vehicle. Special topics on grid generation strategies are also addressed to model control surface deflections, and material mapping.

Development of a mathematical model for the growth associated Polyhydroxybutyrate fermentation by Azohydromonas australica and its use for the design of fed-batch cultivation strategies.

PubMed

Gahlawat, Geeta; Srivastava, Ashok K

2013-06-01

In the present investigation, batch cultivation of Azohydromonas australica DSM 1124 was carried out in a bioreactor for growth associated PHB production. The observed batch PHB production kinetics data was then used for the development of a mathematical model which adequately described the substrate limitation and inhibition during the cultivation. The statistical validity test demonstrated that the proposed mathematical model predictions were significant at 99% confidence level. The model was thereafter extrapolated to fed-batch to identify various nutrients feeding regimes during the bioreactor cultivation to improve the PHB accumulation. The distinct capability of the mathematical model to predict highly dynamic fed-batch cultivation strategies was demonstrated by experimental implementation of two fed-batch cultivation strategies. A significantly high PHB concentration of 22.65 g/L & an overall PHB content of 76% was achieved during constant feed rate fed-batch cultivation which is the highest PHB content reported so far using A. australica. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Investigating the Relationships among Metacognitive Strategy Training, Willingness to Read English Medical Texts, and Reading Comprehension Ability Using Structural Equation Modeling

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hassanpour, Masoumeh; Ghonsooly, Behzad; Nooghabi, Mehdi Jabbari; Shafiee, Mohammad Naser

2017-01-01

This quasi-experimental study examined the relationship between students' metacognitive awareness and willingness to read English medical texts. So, a model was proposed and tested using structural equation modeling (SEM) with R software. Participants included 98 medical students of two classes. One class was assigned as the control group and the…

A Luenberger observer for reaction-diffusion models with front position data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Collin, Annabelle; Chapelle, Dominique; Moireau, Philippe

2015-11-01

We propose a Luenberger observer for reaction-diffusion models with propagating front features, and for data associated with the location of the front over time. Such models are considered in various application fields, such as electrophysiology, wild-land fire propagation and tumor growth modeling. Drawing our inspiration from image processing methods, we start by proposing an observer for the eikonal-curvature equation that can be derived from the reaction-diffusion model by an asymptotic expansion. We then carry over this observer to the underlying reaction-diffusion equation by an ;inverse asymptotic analysis;, and we show that the associated correction in the dynamics has a stabilizing effect for the linearized estimation error. We also discuss the extension to joint state-parameter estimation by using the earlier-proposed ROUKF strategy. We then illustrate and assess our proposed observer method with test problems pertaining to electrophysiology modeling, including with a realistic model of cardiac atria. Our numerical trials show that state estimation is directly very effective with the proposed Luenberger observer, while specific strategies are needed to accurately perform parameter estimation - as is usual with Kalman filtering used in a nonlinear setting - and we demonstrate two such successful strategies.

Analysis of Q fever in Dutch dairy goat herds and assessment of control measures by means of a transmission model.

PubMed

Bontje, D M; Backer, J A; Hogerwerf, L; Roest, H I J; van Roermund, H J W

2016-01-01

Between 2006 and 2009 the largest human Q fever epidemic ever described occurred in the Netherlands. The source of infection was traced back to dairy goat herds with abortion problems due to Q fever. The first aim of control measures taken in these herds was the reduction of human exposure. To analyze Q fever dynamics in goat herds and to study the effect of control measures, a within-herd model of Coxiella burnetii transmission in dairy goat herds was developed. With this individual-based stochastic model we evaluated six control strategies and three herd management styles and studied which strategy leads to a lower Q fever prevalence and/or to disease extinction in a goat herd. Parameter values were based on literature and on experimental work. The model could not be validated with independent data. The results of the epidemiological model were: (1) Vaccination is effective in quickly reducing the prevalence in a dairy goat herd. (2) When taking into account the average time to extinction of the infection and the infection pressure in a goat herd, the most effective control strategy is preventive yearly vaccination, followed by the reactive strategies to vaccinate after an abortion storm or after testing BTM (bulk tank milk) positive. (3) As C. burnetii in dried dust may affect public health, an alternative ranking method is based on the cumulative amount of C. burnetii emitted into the environment (from disease introduction until extinction). Using this criterion, the same control strategies are effective as when based on time to extinction and infection pressure (see 2). (4) As the bulk of pathogen excretion occurs during partus and abortion, culling of pregnant animals during an abortion storm leads to a fast reduction of the amount of C. burnetii emitted into the environment. However, emission is not entirely prevented and Q fever will not be eradicated in the herd by this measure. (5) A search & destroy (i.e. test and cull) method by PCR of individual milk samples with a detection probability of 50% of detecting and culling infected goats - that excrete C. burnetii intermittently - will not result in eradication of Q fever in the herd. This control strategy was the least effective of the six evaluated strategies. Subject to model limitations, our results indicate that only vaccination is capable of preventing and controlling Q fever outbreaks in dairy goat farms. Thus, preventive vaccination should be considered as an ongoing control measure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-linear homogenized and heterogeneous FE models for FRCM reinforced masonry walls in diagonal compression

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bertolesi, Elisa; Milani, Gabriele; Poggi, Carlo

2016-12-01

Two FE modeling techniques are presented and critically discussed for the non-linear analysis of tuff masonry panels reinforced with FRCM and subjected to standard diagonal compression tests. The specimens, tested at the University of Naples (Italy), are unreinforced and FRCM retrofitted walls. The extensive characterization of the constituent materials allowed adopting here very sophisticated numerical modeling techniques. In particular, here the results obtained by means of a micro-modeling strategy and homogenization approach are compared. The first modeling technique is a tridimensional heterogeneous micro-modeling where constituent materials (bricks, joints, reinforcing mortar and reinforcing grid) are modeled separately. The second approach is based on a two-step homogenization procedure, previously developed by the authors, where the elementary cell is discretized by means of three-noded plane stress elements and non-linear interfaces. The non-linear structural analyses are performed replacing the homogenized orthotropic continuum with a rigid element and non-linear spring assemblage (RBSM). All the simulations here presented are performed using the commercial software Abaqus. Pros and cons of the two approaches are herein discussed with reference to their reliability in reproducing global force-displacement curves and crack patterns, as well as to the rather different computational effort required by the two strategies.

Predictive validity of the classroom strategies scale-observer form on statewide testing scores: an initial investigation.

PubMed

Reddy, Linda A; Fabiano, Gregory A; Dudek, Christopher M; Hsu, Louis

2013-12-01

The present study examined the validity of a teacher observation measure, the Classroom Strategies Scale--Observer Form (CSS), as a predictor of student performance on statewide tests of mathematics and English language arts. The CSS is a teacher practice observational measure that assesses evidence-based instructional and behavioral management practices in elementary school. A series of two-level hierarchical generalized linear models were fitted to data of a sample of 662 third- through fifth-grade students to assess whether CSS Part 2 Instructional Strategy and Behavioral Management Strategy scale discrepancy scores (i.e., ∑ |recommended frequency--frequency ratings|) predicted statewide mathematics and English language arts proficiency scores when percentage of minority students in schools was controlled. Results indicated that the Instructional Strategy scale discrepancy scores significantly predicted mathematics and English language arts proficiency scores: Relatively larger discrepancies on observer ratings of what teachers did versus what should have been done were associated with lower proficiency scores. Results offer initial evidence of the predictive validity of the CSS Part 2 Instructional Strategy discrepancy scores on student academic outcomes. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

Pharmacokinetic Model of the Transport of Fast-Acting Insulin From the Subcutaneous and Intradermal Spaces to Blood.

PubMed

Lv, Dayu; Kulkarni, Sandip D; Chan, Alice; Keith, Stephen; Pettis, Ron; Kovatchev, Boris P; Farhi, Leon S; Breton, Marc D

2015-07-01

Pharmacokinetic (PK) models describing the transport of insulin from the injection site to blood assist clinical decision making and are part of in silico platforms for developing and testing of insulin delivery strategies for treatment of patients with diabetes. The ability of these models to accurately describe all facets of the in vivo insulin transport is therefore critical for their application. Here, we propose a new model of fast-acting insulin analogs transport from the subcutaneous and intradermal spaces to blood that can accommodate clinically observed biphasic appearance and delayed clearance of injected insulin, 2 phenomena that are not captured by existing PK models. To develop the model we compare 9 insulin transport PK models which describe hypothetical insulin delivery pathways potentially capable of approximating biphasic appearance of exogenous insulin. The models are tested with respect to their ability to describe clinical data from 10 healthy volunteers which received 1 subcutaneous and 2 intradermal insulin injections on 3 different occasions. The optimal model, selected based on information and posterior identifiability criteria, assumes that insulin is delivered at the administrative site and is then transported to the bloodstream via 2 independent routes (1) diffusion-like process to the blood and (2) combination of diffusion-like processes followed by an additional compartment before entering the blood. This optimal model accounts for biphasic appearance and delayed clearance of exogenous insulin. It agrees better with the clinical data as compared to commonly used models and is expected to improve the in silico development and testing of insulin treatment strategies, including artificial pancreas systems. © 2015 Diabetes Technology Society.

Modeling the cost-benefit of nerve conduction studies in pre-employment screening for carpal tunnel syndrome.

PubMed

Evanoff, Bradley; Kymes, Steve

2010-06-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the costs associated with pre-employment nerve conduction testing as a screening tool for carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) in the workplace. We used a Markov decision analysis model to compare the costs associated with a strategy of screening all prospective employees for CTS and not hiring those with abnormal nerve conduction, versus a strategy of not screening for CTS. The variables included in our model included employee turnover rate, the incidence of CTS, the prevalence of median nerve conduction abnormalities, the relative risk of developing CTS conferred by abnormal nerve conduction screening, the costs of pre-employment screening, and the worker's compensation costs to the employer for each case of CTS. In our base case, total employer costs for CTS from the perspective of the employer (cost of screening plus costs for workers' compensation associated with CTS) were higher when screening was used. Median costs per employee position over five years were US$503 for the screening strategy versus US$200 for a no-screening strategy. A sensitivity analysis showed that a strategy of screening was cost-beneficial from the perspective of the employer only under a few circumstances. Using Monte Carlo simulation varying all parameters, we found a 30% probability that screening would be cost-beneficial. A strategy of pre-employment screening for CTS should be carefully evaluated for yield and social consequences before being implemented. Our model suggests such screening is not appropriate for most employers.

Feedback control of an electrorheological long-stroke vibration damper

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sims, Neil D.; Stanway, Roger; Johnson, Andrew R.; Peel, David J.; Bullough, William A.

1999-06-01

It is widely acknowledged that the inherent non-linearity of smart fluid dampers is inhibiting the development of effective control regimes, and mass-production devices. In an earlier publication, an innovative solution to this problem was presented -- using a simple feedback control strategy to linearize the response. The study used a quasi-steady model of a long-stroke Electrorheological damper, and showed how proportional feedback control could linearize the simulated response. However, this initial research did not consider the dynamics of the damper's behavior, and so the development of a more advanced model has been necessary. In this article, the authors present an extension to this earlier study, using a model of the damper's response that is capable of accurately predicting the dynamic response of the damper. To introduce the topic, the electrorheological long-stroke damper test rig is described, and an overview of the earlier study is given. The advanced model is then derived, and its predictions are compared to experimental data from the test rig. This model is then incorporated into the feedback control simulations, and it is shown how the control strategy is still able to linearize the response in simulations.

Dynamic simulation of a reverse Brayton refrigerator

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peng, N.; Lei, L. L.; Xiong, L. Y.; Tang, J. C.; Dong, B.; Liu, L. Q.

2014-01-01

A test refrigerator based on the modified Reverse Brayton cycle has been developed in the Chinese Academy of Sciences recently. To study the behaviors of this test refrigerator, a dynamic simulation has been carried out. The numerical model comprises the typical components of the test refrigerator: compressor, valves, heat exchangers, expander and heater. This simulator is based on the oriented-object approach and each component is represented by a set of differential and algebraic equations. The control system of the test refrigerator is also simulated, which can be used to optimize the control strategies. This paper describes all the models and shows the simulation results. Comparisons between simulation results and experimental data are also presented. Experimental validation on the test refrigerator gives satisfactory results.

A simulation of air pollution model parameter estimation using data from a ground-based LIDAR remote sensor

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kibler, J. F.; Suttles, J. T.

1977-01-01

One way to obtain estimates of the unknown parameters in a pollution dispersion model is to compare the model predictions with remotely sensed air quality data. A ground-based LIDAR sensor provides relative pollution concentration measurements as a function of space and time. The measured sensor data are compared with the dispersion model output through a numerical estimation procedure to yield parameter estimates which best fit the data. This overall process is tested in a computer simulation to study the effects of various measurement strategies. Such a simulation is useful prior to a field measurement exercise to maximize the information content in the collected data. Parametric studies of simulated data matched to a Gaussian plume dispersion model indicate the trade offs available between estimation accuracy and data acquisition strategy.

Emotional intervention strategies for dementia-related behavior: a theory synthesis.

PubMed

Yao, Lan; Algase, Donna

2008-04-01

Behavioral disturbances of elders with dementia are prevalent. Yet the science guiding development and testing of effective intervention strategies is limited by rudimentary and often-conflicting theories. Using a theory-synthesis approach conducted within the perspective of the need-driven dementia-compromised behavior model, this article presents the locomoting responses to environment in elders with dementia (LRE-EWD) model. This new model, based on empirical and theoretical evidence, integrates the role of emotion with that of cognition in explicating a person-environment dynamic supporting wandering and other dementia-related disturbances. Included is evidence of the theory's testability and elaboration of its implications. The LRE-EWD model resolves conflicting views and evidence from current research on environmental interventions for behavior disturbances and opens new avenues to advance this field of study and practice.

Attachment, emotion regulation and coping in Portuguese emerging adults: a test of a mediation hypothesis.

PubMed

Cabral, Joana; Matos, Paula M; Beyers, Wim; Soenens, Bart

2012-11-01

Although the quality of parent-adolescent emotional bonds has consistently been proposed as a major influence on young adult's psycho-emotional functioning, the precise means by which these bonds either facilitate or impede adaptive coping are not well-understood. In an effort to advance this inquiry, the present study examined interrelationships among measures of parental attachment, emotion regulation processes, and preferred coping strategies within a sample of 942 college freshmen. Structural Equation Modelling was used to test whether the link between attachment to parents and the use of particular coping strategies is mediated by differences in emotion regulation mechanisms. As hypothesized, differences in attachment to parents predicted differences in the use of emotion regulation mechanisms and coping strategies. More specifically, having a close emotional bond, feeling supported in autonomy processes and having (moderately) low levels of separation anxiety toward parents predict more constructive emotion regulation mechanisms and coping strategies. Additionally emotion regulation was found to (partly or totally) mediate the association between attachment and coping.

Air-to-Water Heat Pumps With Radiant Delivery in Low-Load Homes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Backman, C.; German, A.; Dakin, B.

2013-12-01

Space conditioning represents nearly 50% of average residential household energy consumption, highlighting the need to identify alternative cost-effective, energy-efficient cooling and heating strategies. As homes are better built, there is an increasing need for strategies that are particularly well suited for high performance, low load homes. ARBI researchers worked with two test homes in hot-dry climates to evaluate the in-situ performance of air-to-water heat pump (AWHP) systems, an energy efficient space conditioning solution designed to cost-effectively provide comfort in homes with efficient, safe, and durable operation. Two monitoring projects of test houses in hot-dry climates were initiated in 2010 tomore » test this system. Both systems were fully instrumented and have been monitored over one year to capture complete performance data over the cooling and heating seasons. Results are used to quantify energy savings, cost-effectiveness, and system performance using different operating modes and strategies. A calibrated TRNSYS model was developed and used to evaluate performance in various climate regions. This strategy is most effective in tight, insulated homes with high levels of thermal mass (i.e. exposed slab floors).« less

Oligonucleotide-based strategies to combat polyglutamine diseases

PubMed Central

Fiszer, Agnieszka; Krzyzosiak, Wlodzimierz J.

2014-01-01

Considerable advances have been recently made in understanding the molecular aspects of pathogenesis and in developing therapeutic approaches for polyglutamine (polyQ) diseases. Studies on pathogenic mechanisms have extended our knowledge of mutant protein toxicity, confirmed the toxicity of mutant transcript and identified other toxic RNA and protein entities. One very promising therapeutic strategy is targeting the causative gene expression with oligonucleotide (ON) based tools. This straightforward approach aimed at halting the early steps in the cascade of pathogenic events has been widely tested for Huntington's disease and spinocerebellar ataxia type 3. In this review, we gather information on the use of antisense oligonucleotides and RNA interference triggers for the experimental treatment of polyQ diseases in cellular and animal models. We present studies testing non-allele-selective and allele-selective gene silencing strategies. The latter include targeting SNP variants associated with mutations or targeting the pathologically expanded CAG repeat directly. We compare gene silencing effectors of various types in a number of aspects, including their design, efficiency in cell culture experiments and pre-clinical testing. We discuss advantages, current limitations and perspectives of various ON-based strategies used to treat polyQ diseases. PMID:24848018

The price of the precautionary principle: cost-effectiveness of BSE intervention strategies in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Benedictus, A; Hogeveen, H; Berends, B R

2009-06-01

Since 1996, bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle has been linked to a new variant of Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD), a fatal brain disease in man. This paper assessed the cost-effectiveness of BSE control strategies instituted by the European Commission. In a Monte Carlo simulation model, a non-intervention baseline scenario was compared to three intervention strategies: removal of specified risk materials from slaughter animals, post-mortem testing for BSE and the culling of feed and age cohorts of BSE cases. The food risk in the baseline scenario ranged from 16.98 lost life years in 2002 to 2.69 lost life years in 2005. Removing specified risk materials removal practices, post-mortem testing and post-mortem testing plus cohort culling reduced this risk with 93%, 82.7% and 83.1%. The estimated cost-effectiveness of all BSE measures in The Netherlands ranged from 4.3 million euros per life year saved in 2002 to 17.7 million euros in 2005. It was discussed that the cost-effectiveness of BSE control strategies will further deviate from regular health economics thresholds as BSE prevalence and incidence declines.

Getting a Good Night's Sleep in Adolescence: Do Strategies for Coping With Stress Matter?

PubMed

Matthews, Karen A; Hall, Martica H; Cousins, Jennifer; Lee, Laisze

2016-01-01

Getting a good night's sleep is challenging for adolescents because of early school start times and adolescents' substantial social and physical changes. We tested whether key indices of sleep health are associated with usual styles of coping with stress and interpersonal conflict in healthy black and white adolescents. Two hundred forty-two (57% female, 56% black) high school students completed daily sleep diaries, questionnaires, and actigraphy across a school week. Linear regression models tested associations, independent of race, gender, and other covariates. Students who reported using disengagement coping exhibited poor sleep health. They had shorter sleep duration, more fragmented sleep, delayed sleep, and increased daytime sleepiness. Unexpectedly, positive engagement coping was related to daytime sleepiness and delayed sleep, although not in models that included disengagement coping. Coping strategies may be an important influence on adolescent sleep. Future research should evaluate the antecedent-consequent relationships among coping, sleep, and stress.

Computational modelling of the impact of AIDS on business.

PubMed

Matthews, Alan P

2007-07-01

An overview of computational modelling of the impact of AIDS on business in South Africa, with a detailed description of the AIDS Projection Model (APM) for companies, developed by the author, and suggestions for further work. Computational modelling of the impact of AIDS on business in South Africa requires modelling of the epidemic as a whole, and of its impact on a company. This paper gives an overview of epidemiological modelling, with an introduction to the Actuarial Society of South Africa (ASSA) model, the most widely used such model for South Africa. The APM produces projections of HIV prevalence, new infections, and AIDS mortality on a company, based on the anonymous HIV testing of company employees, and projections from the ASSA model. A smoothed statistical model of the prevalence test data is computed, and then the ASSA model projection for each category of employees is adjusted so that it matches the measured prevalence in the year of testing. FURTHER WORK: Further techniques that could be developed are microsimulation (representing individuals in the computer), scenario planning for testing strategies, and models for the business environment, such as models of entire sectors, and mapping of HIV prevalence in time and space, based on workplace and community data.

Testing the effectiveness of in-home behavioral economics strategies to increase vegetable intake, liking, and variety among children residing in households that receive food assistance.

PubMed

Leak, Tashara M; Swenson, Alison; Vickers, Zata; Mann, Traci; Mykerezi, Elton; Redden, Joseph P; Rendahl, Aaron; Reicks, Marla

2015-01-01

To test the effectiveness of behavioral economics strategies for increasing vegetable intake, variety, and liking among children residing in homes receiving food assistance. A randomized controlled trial with data collected at baseline, once weekly for 6 weeks, and at study conclusion. Family homes. Families with a child (9-12 years) will be recruited through community organizations and randomly assigned to an intervention (n = 36) or control (n = 10) group. The intervention group will incorporate a new behavioral economics strategy during home dinner meal occasions each week for 6 weeks. Strategies are simple and low-cost. The primary dependent variable will be child's dinner meal vegetable consumption based on weekly reports by caregivers. Fixed independent variables will include the strategy and week of strategy implementation. Secondary dependent variables will include vegetable liking and variety of vegetables consumed based on data collected at baseline and study conclusion. Mean vegetable intake for each strategy across families will be compared using a mixed-model analysis of variance with a random effect for child. In additionally, overall mean changes in vegetable consumption, variety, and liking will be compared between intervention and control groups. Copyright © 2015 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biomechanical Diversity of Mating Structures among Harvestmen Species Is Consistent with a Spectrum of Precopulatory Strategies

PubMed Central

Burns, Mercedes; Shultz, Jeffrey W.

2015-01-01

Diversity in reproductive structures is frequently explained by selection acting at individual to generational timescales, but interspecific differences predicted by such models (e.g., female choice or sexual conflict) are often untestable in a phylogenetic framework. An alternative approach focuses on clade- or function-specific hypotheses that predict evolutionary patterns in terms neutral to specific modes of sexual selection. Here we test a hypothesis that diversity of reproductive structures in leiobunine harvestmen (daddy longlegs) of eastern North America reflects two sexually coevolved but non-overlapping precopulatory strategies, a primitive solicitous strategy (females enticed by penis-associated nuptial gifts), and a multiply derived antagonistic strategy (penis exerts mechanical force against armature of the female pregenital opening). Predictions of sexual coevolution and fidelity to precopulatory categories were tested using 10 continuously varying functional traits from 28 species. Multivariate analyses corroborated sexual coevolution but failed to partition species by precopulatory strategy, with multiple methods placing species along a spectrum of mechanical antagonistic potential. These findings suggest that precopulatory features within species reflect different co-occurring levels of solicitation and antagonism, and that gradualistic evolutionary pathways exist between extreme strategies. The ability to quantify antagonistic potential of precopulatory structures invites comparison with ecological variables that may promote evolutionary shifts in precopulatory strategies. PMID:26352413

Biomechanical Diversity of Mating Structures among Harvestmen Species Is Consistent with a Spectrum of Precopulatory Strategies.

PubMed

Burns, Mercedes; Shultz, Jeffrey W

2015-01-01

Diversity in reproductive structures is frequently explained by selection acting at individual to generational timescales, but interspecific differences predicted by such models (e.g., female choice or sexual conflict) are often untestable in a phylogenetic framework. An alternative approach focuses on clade- or function-specific hypotheses that predict evolutionary patterns in terms neutral to specific modes of sexual selection. Here we test a hypothesis that diversity of reproductive structures in leiobunine harvestmen (daddy longlegs) of eastern North America reflects two sexually coevolved but non-overlapping precopulatory strategies, a primitive solicitous strategy (females enticed by penis-associated nuptial gifts), and a multiply derived antagonistic strategy (penis exerts mechanical force against armature of the female pregenital opening). Predictions of sexual coevolution and fidelity to precopulatory categories were tested using 10 continuously varying functional traits from 28 species. Multivariate analyses corroborated sexual coevolution but failed to partition species by precopulatory strategy, with multiple methods placing species along a spectrum of mechanical antagonistic potential. These findings suggest that precopulatory features within species reflect different co-occurring levels of solicitation and antagonism, and that gradualistic evolutionary pathways exist between extreme strategies. The ability to quantify antagonistic potential of precopulatory structures invites comparison with ecological variables that may promote evolutionary shifts in precopulatory strategies.

Reducing aeration energy consumption in a large-scale membrane bioreactor: Process simulation and engineering application.

PubMed

Sun, Jianyu; Liang, Peng; Yan, Xiaoxu; Zuo, Kuichang; Xiao, Kang; Xia, Junlin; Qiu, Yong; Wu, Qing; Wu, Shijia; Huang, Xia; Qi, Meng; Wen, Xianghua

2016-04-15

Reducing the energy consumption of membrane bioreactors (MBRs) is highly important for their wider application in wastewater treatment engineering. Of particular significance is reducing aeration in aerobic tanks to reduce the overall energy consumption. This study proposed an in situ ammonia-N-based feedback control strategy for aeration in aerobic tanks; this was tested via model simulation and through a large-scale (50,000 m(3)/d) engineering application. A full-scale MBR model was developed based on the activated sludge model (ASM) and was calibrated to the actual MBR. The aeration control strategy took the form of a two-step cascaded proportion-integration (PI) feedback algorithm. Algorithmic parameters were optimized via model simulation. The strategy achieved real-time adjustment of aeration amounts based on feedback from effluent quality (i.e., ammonia-N). The effectiveness of the strategy was evaluated through both the model platform and the full-scale engineering application. In the former, the aeration flow rate was reduced by 15-20%. In the engineering application, the aeration flow rate was reduced by 20%, and overall specific energy consumption correspondingly reduced by 4% to 0.45 kWh/m(3)-effluent, using the present practice of regulating the angle of guide vanes of fixed-frequency blowers. Potential energy savings are expected to be higher for MBRs with variable-frequency blowers. This study indicated that the ammonia-N-based aeration control strategy holds promise for application in full-scale MBRs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of hydrographs and flow-duration curves in almost ungauged catchments: Which runoff measurements are most informative for model calibration?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pool, Sandra; Viviroli, Daniel; Seibert, Jan

2017-11-01

Applications of runoff models usually rely on long and continuous runoff time series for model calibration. However, many catchments around the world are ungauged and estimating runoff for these catchments is challenging. One approach is to perform a few runoff measurements in a previously fully ungauged catchment and to constrain a runoff model by these measurements. In this study we investigated the value of such individual runoff measurements when taken at strategic points in time for applying a bucket-type runoff model (HBV) in ungauged catchments. Based on the assumption that a limited number of runoff measurements can be taken, we sought the optimal sampling strategy (i.e. when to measure the streamflow) to obtain the most informative data for constraining the runoff model. We used twenty gauged catchments across the eastern US, made the assumption that these catchments were ungauged, and applied different runoff sampling strategies. All tested strategies consisted of twelve runoff measurements within one year and ranged from simply using monthly flow maxima to a more complex selection of observation times. In each case the twelve runoff measurements were used to select 100 best parameter sets using a Monte Carlo calibration approach. Runoff simulations using these 'informed' parameter sets were then evaluated for an independent validation period in terms of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of the hydrograph and the mean absolute relative error of the flow-duration curve. Model performance measures were normalized by relating them to an upper and a lower benchmark representing a well-informed and an uninformed model calibration. The hydrographs were best simulated with strategies including high runoff magnitudes as opposed to the flow-duration curves that were generally better estimated with strategies that captured low and mean flows. The choice of a sampling strategy covering the full range of runoff magnitudes enabled hydrograph and flow-duration curve simulations close to a well-informed model calibration. The differences among such strategies covering the full range of runoff magnitudes were small indicating that the exact choice of a strategy might be less crucial. Our study corroborates the information value of a small number of strategically selected runoff measurements for simulating runoff with a bucket-type runoff model in almost ungauged catchments.

An Agent-Based Model for Analyzing Control Policies and the Dynamic Service-Time Performance of a Capacity-Constrained Air Traffic Management Facility

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conway, Sheila R.

2006-01-01

Simple agent-based models may be useful for investigating air traffic control strategies as a precursory screening for more costly, higher fidelity simulation. Of concern is the ability of the models to capture the essence of the system and provide insight into system behavior in a timely manner and without breaking the bank. The method is put to the test with the development of a model to address situations where capacity is overburdened and potential for propagation of the resultant delay though later flights is possible via flight dependencies. The resultant model includes primitive representations of principal air traffic system attributes, namely system capacity, demand, airline schedules and strategy, and aircraft capability. It affords a venue to explore their interdependence in a time-dependent, dynamic system simulation. The scope of the research question and the carefully-chosen modeling fidelity did allow for the development of an agent-based model in short order. The model predicted non-linear behavior given certain initial conditions and system control strategies. Additionally, a combination of the model and dimensionless techniques borrowed from fluid systems was demonstrated that can predict the system s dynamic behavior across a wide range of parametric settings.

The Use of Cooperative Round Robin Discussion Model to Improve Students' Holistic Ability in TEFL Class

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asari, Slamet; Ma'rifah, Ulfatul; Arifani, Yudhi

2017-01-01

This classroom action research is carried out within two cycles to breed a strategy on how a" Round Robin Discussion Learning Model" enhance students' critical thinking, presentation skills, confidence, and independent learning in Teaching English as a Foreign Language (TEFL) class. Pop-up quiz, teacher made-tests, classroom…

Simulating the Afghanistan-Pakistan opium supply chain

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Watkins, Jennifer H; MacKerrow, Edward P; Merritt, Terence M

2010-04-08

This paper outlines an opium supply chain using the Hilmand province of Afghanistan as exemplar. The opium supply chain model follows the transformation of opium poppy seed through cultivation and chemical alteration to brown heroin base. The purpose of modeling and simulating the Afghanistan-Pakistan opium supply chain is to discover and test strategies that will disrupt this criminal enterprise.

Validation Test Report for a Genetic Algorithm in the Glider Observation STrategies (GOST 1.0) Project: Sensitivity Studies

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-08-15

Environmental Model ( GDEM ) 72 levels) was conserved in the interpolated profiles and small variations in the vertical field may have lead to large...Planner ETKF Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter G8NCOM 1/8⁰ Global NCOM GA Genetic Algorithm GDEM Generalized Digital Environmental Model GOST

Increasing Women's Aspirations and Achievement in Science: The Effect of Role Models on Implicit Cognitions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phelan, Julie E.

2010-01-01

This research investigated the role of implicit science beliefs in the gender gap in science aspirations and achievement, with the goal of testing identification with a female role model as a potential intervention strategy for increasing women's representation in science careers. At Time 1, women's implicit science stereotyping (i.e., associating…

A Mixture Rasch Model with a Covariate: A Simulation Study via Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo Estimation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dai, Yunyun

2013-01-01

Mixtures of item response theory (IRT) models have been proposed as a technique to explore response patterns in test data related to cognitive strategies, instructional sensitivity, and differential item functioning (DIF). Estimation proves challenging due to difficulties in identification and questions of effect size needed to recover underlying…

Mexican/Mexican American Adolescents and "Keepin' It REAL": An Evidence-Based Substance Use Prevention Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kulis, Stephen; Marsiglia, Flavio F.; Elek, Elvira; Dustman, Patricia; Wagstaff, David A.; Hecht, Michael L.

2005-01-01

A randomized trial tested the efficacy of three curriculum versions teaching drug resistance strategies, one modeled on Mexican American culture; another modeled on European American and African American culture; and a multicultural version. Self-report data at baseline and 14 months post-intervention were obtained from 3,402 Mexican heritage…

Unvorgreifliche Gedanken, betreffend die Ausuebung und Verbesserung des Uebersetzungsunterrichts Englisch-Deutsch. (Modest Thoughts on the Use and Improvement of Training in Translation -- English to German).

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Haber, Bernd K.

1978-01-01

Surveys current practice in teaching translation and finds it faulty. An almost mathematical model of translation strategy is suggested for upper-level students of English who can use a monolingual dictionary. Two sample texts for testing the model are appended. (IFS/WGA)

Behavioral testing strategies in a localized animal model of multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Buddeberg, Bigna S; Kerschensteiner, Martin; Merkler, Doron; Stadelmann, Christine; Schwab, Martin E

2004-08-01

To assess neurological impairments quantitatively in an animal model of multiple sclerosis (MS), we have used a targeted model of experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), which leads to the formation of anatomically defined lesions in the spinal cord. Deficits in the hindlimb locomotion are therefore well defined and highly reproducible, in contrast to the situation in generalized EAE with disseminated lesions. Behavioral tests for hindlimb sensorimotor functions, originally established for traumatic spinal cord injury, revealed temporary or persistent deficits in open field locomotion, the grid walk, the narrow beam and the measurement of the foot exorotation angle. Such refined behavioral testing in EAE will be crucial for the analysis of new therapeutic approaches for MS that seek to improve or prevent neurological impairment.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of cervical cancer prevention based on a rapid human papillomavirus screening test in a high-risk region of China.

PubMed

Levin, Carol E; Sellors, John; Shi, Ju-Fang; Ma, Li; Qiao, You-lin; Ortendahl, Jesse; O'Shea, Meredith K H; Goldie, Sue J

2010-09-01

This study assessed the cost-effectiveness of a new, rapid human papillomavirus (HPV)-DNA screening test for cervical cancer prevention in the high-risk region of Shanxi, China. Using micro-costing methods, we estimated the resources needed to implement preventive strategies using cervical cytology or HPV-DNA testing, including the Hybrid Capture 2 (hc2) test (QIAGEN Corp., Gaithersburg, MD) and the rapid HPV-DNA careHPV test (QIAGEN). Data were used in a previously published model and empirically calibrated to country-specific epidemiological data. Strategies differed by initial test, targeted age, frequency of screening, number of clinic visits required (1, 2 or 3) and service delivery setting (national, county and township levels). Outcomes included lifetime risk of cancer, years of life saved (YLS), lifetime costs and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (cost per YLS). For all screening frequencies, the most efficient strategy used 2-visit rapid HPV-DNA testing at the county level, including screening and diagnostics in the first visit, and treatment in the second visit. Screening at ages 35, 40 and 45 reduced cancer risk by 50% among women compliant with all 3 screening rounds, and was US$ 150 per YLS, compared with this same strategy applied twice per lifetime. This would be considered very cost-effective evaluated against China's per-capita gross domestic product (US$ 1,702). By enhancing the linkage between screening and treatment through a reduced number of visits, rapid HPV-DNA testing 3 times per lifetime is more effective than traditional cytology, and is likely to be cost-effective in high-risk regions of China.

A mixed methods protocol for developing and testing implementation strategies for evidence-based obesity prevention in childcare: a cluster randomized hybrid type III trial.

PubMed

Swindle, Taren; Johnson, Susan L; Whiteside-Mansell, Leanne; Curran, Geoffrey M

2017-07-18

Despite the potential to reach at-risk children in childcare, there is a significant gap between current practices and evidence-based obesity prevention in this setting. There are few investigations of the impact of implementation strategies on the uptake of evidence-based practices (EBPs) for obesity prevention and nutrition promotion. This study protocol describes a three-phase approach to developing and testing implementation strategies to support uptake of EBPs for obesity prevention practices in childcare (i.e., key components of the WISE intervention). Informed by the i-PARIHS framework, we will use a stakeholder-driven evidence-based quality improvement (EBQI) process to apply information gathered in qualitative interviews on barriers and facilitators to practice to inform the design of implementation strategies. Then, a Hybrid Type III cluster randomized trial will compare a basic implementation strategy (i.e., intervention as usual) with an enhanced implementation strategy informed by stakeholders. All Head Start centers (N = 12) within one agency in an urban area in a southern state in the USA will be randomized to receive the basic or enhanced implementation with approximately 20 classrooms per group (40 educators, 400 children per group). The educators involved in the study, the data collectors, and the biostastician will be blinded to the study condition. The basic and enhanced implementation strategies will be compared on outcomes specified by the RE-AIM model (e.g., Reach to families, Effectiveness of impact on child diet and health indicators, Adoption commitment of agency, Implementation fidelity and acceptability, and Maintenance after 6 months). Principles of formative evaluation will be used throughout the hybrid trial. This study will test a stakeholder-driven approach to improve implementation, fidelity, and maintenance of EBPs for obesity prevention in childcare. Further, this study provides an example of a systematic process to develop and test a tailored, enhanced implementation strategy. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT03075085.

Data Collection and Harmonization in HIV Research: The Seek, Test, Treat, and Retain Initiative at the National Institute on Drug Abuse.

PubMed

Chandler, Redonna K; Kahana, Shoshana Y; Fletcher, Bennett; Jones, Dionne; Finger, Matthew S; Aklin, Will M; Hamill, Kathleen; Webb, Candace

2015-12-01

Large-scale, multisite data sets offer the potential for exploring the public health benefits of biomedical interventions. Data harmonization is an emerging strategy to increase the comparability of research data collected across independent studies, enabling research questions to be addressed beyond the capacity of any individual study. The National Institute on Drug Abuse recently implemented this novel strategy to prospectively collect and harmonize data across 22 independent research studies developing and empirically testing interventions to effectively deliver an HIV continuum of care to diverse drug-abusing populations. We describe this data collection and harmonization effort, collectively known as the Seek, Test, Treat, and Retain Data Collection and Harmonization Initiative, which can serve as a model applicable to other research endeavors.

Capabilities of wind tunnels with two-adaptive walls to minimize boundary interference in 3-D model testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rebstock, Rainer; Lee, Edwin E., Jr.

1989-01-01

An initial wind tunnel test was made to validate a new wall adaptation method for 3-D models in test sections with two adaptive walls. First part of the adaptation strategy is an on-line assessment of wall interference at the model position. The wall induced blockage was very small at all test conditions. Lift interference occurred at higher angles of attack with the walls set aerodynamically straight. The adaptation of the top and bottom tunnel walls is aimed at achieving a correctable flow condition. The blockage was virtually zero throughout the wing planform after the wall adjustment. The lift curve measured with the walls adapted agreed very well with interference free data for Mach 0.7, regardless of the vertical position of the wing in the test section. The 2-D wall adaptation can significantly improve the correctability of 3-D model data. Nevertheless, residual spanwise variations of wall interference are inevitable.

Benchmark simulation model no 2: general protocol and exploratory case studies.

PubMed

Jeppsson, U; Pons, M-N; Nopens, I; Alex, J; Copp, J B; Gernaey, K V; Rosen, C; Steyer, J-P; Vanrolleghem, P A

2007-01-01

Over a decade ago, the concept of objectively evaluating the performance of control strategies by simulating them using a standard model implementation was introduced for activated sludge wastewater treatment plants. The resulting Benchmark Simulation Model No 1 (BSM1) has been the basis for a significant new development that is reported on here: Rather than only evaluating control strategies at the level of the activated sludge unit (bioreactors and secondary clarifier) the new BSM2 now allows the evaluation of control strategies at the level of the whole plant, including primary clarifier and sludge treatment with anaerobic sludge digestion. In this contribution, the decisions that have been made over the past three years regarding the models used within the BSM2 are presented and argued, with particular emphasis on the ADM1 description of the digester, the interfaces between activated sludge and digester models, the included temperature dependencies and the reject water storage. BSM2-implementations are now available in a wide range of simulation platforms and a ring test has verified their proper implementation, consistent with the BSM2 definition. This guarantees that users can focus on the control strategy evaluation rather than on modelling issues. Finally, for illustration, twelve simple operational strategies have been implemented in BSM2 and their performance evaluated. Results show that it is an interesting control engineering challenge to further improve the performance of the BSM2 plant (which is the whole idea behind benchmarking) and that integrated control (i.e. acting at different places in the whole plant) is certainly worthwhile to achieve overall improvement.

Testing the implementation and sustainment facilitation (ISF) strategy as an effective adjunct to the Addiction Technology Transfer Center (ATTC) strategy: study protocol for a cluster randomized trial.

PubMed

Garner, Bryan R; Zehner, Mark; Roosa, Mathew R; Martino, Steve; Gotham, Heather J; Ball, Elizabeth L; Stilen, Patricia; Speck, Kathryn; Vandersloot, Denna; Rieckmann, Traci R; Chaple, Michael; Martin, Erika G; Kaiser, David; Ford, James H

2017-11-17

Improving the extent to which evidence-based practices (EBPs)-treatments that have been empirically shown to be efficacious or effective-are integrated within routine practice is a well-documented challenge across numerous areas of health. In 2014, the National Institute on Drug Abuse funded a type 2 effectiveness-implementation hybrid trial titled the substance abuse treatment to HIV Care (SAT2HIV) Project. Aim 1 of the SAT2HIV Project tests the effectiveness of a motivational interviewing-based brief intervention (MIBI) for substance use as an adjunct to usual care within AIDS service organizations (ASOs) as part of its MIBI Experiment. Aim 2 of the SAT2HIV Project tests the effectiveness of implementation and sustainment facilitation (ISF) as an adjunct to the Addiction Technology Transfer Center (ATTC) model for training staff in motivational interviewing as part of its ISF Experiment. The current paper describes the study protocol for the ISF Experiment. Using a cluster randomized design, case management and leadership staff from 39 ASOs across the United States were randomized to receive either the ATTC strategy (control condition) or the ATTC + ISF strategy (experimental condition). The ATTC strategy is staff-focused and includes 10 discrete strategies (e.g., provide centralized technical assistance, conduct educational meetings, provide ongoing consultation). The ISF strategy is organization-focused and includes seven discrete strategies (e.g., use an implementation advisor, organize implementation team meetings, conduct cyclical small tests of change). Building upon the exploration-preparation-implementation-sustainment (EPIS) framework, the effectiveness of the ISF strategy is examined via three staff-level measures: (1) time-to-proficiency (i.e., preparation phase outcome), (2) implementation effectiveness (i.e., implementation phase outcome), and (3) level of sustainment (i.e., sustainment phase outcome). Although not without limitations, the ISF experiment has several strengths: a highly rigorous design (randomized, hypothesis-driven), high-need setting (ASOs), large sample size (39 ASOs), large geographic representation (23 states and the District of Columbia), and testing along multiple phases of the EPIS continuum (preparation, implementation, and sustainment). Thus, study findings will significantly improve generalizable knowledge regarding the best preparation, implementation, and sustainment strategies for advancing EBPs along the EPIS continuum. Moreover, increasing ASO's capacity to address substance use may improve the HIV Care Continuum. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT03120598.

Effective contaminant detection networks in uncertain groundwater flow fields.

PubMed

Hudak, P F

2001-01-01

A mass transport simulation model tested seven contaminant detection-monitoring networks under a 40 degrees range of groundwater flow directions. Each monitoring network contained five wells located 40 m from a rectangular landfill. The 40-m distance (lag) was measured in different directions, depending upon the strategy used to design a particular monitoring network. Lagging the wells parallel to the central flow path was more effective than alternative design strategies. Other strategies allowed higher percentages of leaks to migrate between monitoring wells. Results of this study suggest that centrally lagged groundwater monitoring networks perform most effectively in uncertain groundwater-flow fields.

Requirements-Based Conformance Testing of ARINC 653 Real-Time Operating Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maksimov, Andrey

2010-08-01

Requirements-based testing is emphasized in avionics certification documents because this strategy has been found to be the most effective at revealing errors. This paper describes the unified requirements-based approach to the creation of conformance test suites for mission-critical systems. The approach uses formal machine-readable specifications of requirements and finite state machine model for test sequences generation on-the-fly. The paper also presents the test system for automated test generation for ARINC 653 services built on this approach. Possible application of the presented approach to various areas of avionics embedded systems testing is discussed.

Design Strategy for a Formally Verified Reliable Computing Platform

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Butler, Ricky W.; Caldwell, James L.; DiVito, Ben L.

1991-01-01

This paper presents a high-level design for a reliable computing platform for real-time control applications. The design tradeoffs and analyses related to the development of a formally verified reliable computing platform are discussed. The design strategy advocated in this paper requires the use of techniques that can be completely characterized mathematically as opposed to more powerful or more flexible algorithms whose performance properties can only be analyzed by simulation and testing. The need for accurate reliability models that can be related to the behavior models is also stressed. Tradeoffs between reliability and voting complexity are explored. In particular, the transient recovery properties of the system are found to be fundamental to both the reliability analysis as well as the "correctness" models.

Estimating the cost-effectiveness of detecting cases of chronic hepatitis C infection on reception into prison

PubMed Central

Sutton, Andrew J; Edmunds, W John; Gill, O Noel

2006-01-01

Background In England and Wales where less than 1% of the population are Injecting drug users (IDUs), 97% of HCV reports are attributed to injecting drug use. As over 60% of the IDU population will have been imprisoned by the age of 30 years, prison may provide a good location in which to offer HCV screening and treatment. The aim of this work is to examine the cost effectiveness of a number of alternative HCV case-finding strategies on prison reception Methods A decision analysis model embedded in a model of the flow of IDUs through prison was used to estimate the cost effectiveness of a number of alternative case-finding strategies. The model estimates the average cost of identifying a new case of HCV from the perspective of the health care provider and how these estimates may evolve over time. Results The results suggest that administering verbal screening for a past positive HCV test and for ever having engaged in illicit drug use prior to the administering of ELISA and PCR tests can have a significant impact on the cost effectiveness of HCV case-finding strategies on prison reception; the discounted cost in 2017 being £2,102 per new HCV case detected compared to £3,107 when no verbal screening is employed. Conclusion The work here demonstrates the importance of targeting those individuals that have ever engaged in illicit drug use for HCV testing in prisons, these individuals can then be targeted for future intervention measures such as treatment or monitored to prevent future transmission. PMID:16803622

CON4EI: Development of serious eye damage and eye irritation testing strategies with respect to the requirements of the UN GHS/EU CLP hazard categories.

PubMed

Verstraelen, Sandra; Van Rompay, An R

2018-06-01

The main objective of the CON4EI (CONsortium for in vitro Eye Irritation testing strategy) project (2015-2016) was to develop tiered, non-animal testing strategies for serious eye damage and eye irritation assessment in relation to the most important drivers of classification. The serious eye damage and eye irritation potential of a set of 80 chemicals was identified based on existing in vivo Draize eye test data and testing was conducted using the following eight alternative test methods: BCOP (Bovine Corneal Opacity and Permeability)+histopathology, BCOP-LLBO (BCOP Laser Light-Based Opacitometer), ICE (Isolated Chicken Eye)+histopathology, STE (Short Term Exposure), EpiOcular™ EIT (EpiOcular Eye Irritation Test), EpiOcular™ ET-50 (EpiOcular™ Time-to-toxicity), SkinEthic™ HCE EIT (SkinEthic™ Human Corneal Epithelial Eye Irritation Test), and SMI (Slug Mucosal Irritation). Project management decided to not include the ICE data in this project since the execution showed relevant, and not predictable, deviations from Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Test Guideline (TG) 438 and Guidance Document 160. At this stage, the outcome of these deviations has not been fully assessed. In addition to these alternative test methods, the computational models Toxtree and Case Ultra were taken into account. This project assessed the relevance of these test methods, their applicability domains and limitations in terms of 'drivers of classification', and their strengths and weaknesses. In this way, methods were identified that fit into a tiered-testing strategy for serious eye damage/eye irritation assessment to distinguish United Nations Globally Harmonized System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals (UN GHS) Category 1 (Cat 1) chemicals from non-Cat 1 chemicals and address the gap namely distinguish between Category 2 (Cat 2) and Cat 1 chemicals. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Production Strategies for Production-Quality Parts for Aerospace Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cawley, J. D.; Best, J. E.; Liu, Z.; Eckel, A. J.; Reed, B. D.; Fox, D. S.; Bhatt, R.; Levine, Stanley R. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

A combination of rapid prototyping processes (3D Systems' stereolithography and Sanders Prototyping's ModelMaker) are combined with gelcasting to produce high quality silicon nitride components that were performance tested under simulated use conditions. Two types of aerospace components were produced, a low-force rocket thruster and a simulated airfoil section. The rocket was tested in a test stand using varying mixtures of H2 and O2, whereas the simulated airfoil was tested by subjecting it to a 0.3 Mach jet-fuel burner flame. Both parts performed successfully, demonstrating the usefulness of the rapid prototyping in efforts to effect materials substitution. In addition, the simulated airfoil was used to explore the possibility of applying thermal/environmental barrier coatings and providing for internal cooling of ceramic parts. It is concluded that this strategy for processing offers the ceramic engineer all the flexibility normally associated with investment casting of superalloys.

Contaminant Boundary at the Faultless Underground Nuclear Test

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Greg Pohll; Karl Pohlmann; Jeff Daniels

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the Nevada Division of Environmental Protection (NDEP) have reached agreement on a corrective action strategy applicable to address the extent and potential impact of radionuclide contamination of groundwater at underground nuclear test locations. This strategy is described in detail in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO, 2000). As part of the corrective action strategy, the nuclear detonations that occurred underground were identified as geographically distinct corrective action units (CAUs). The strategic objective for each CAU is to estimate over a 1,000-yr time period, with uncertainty quantified, the three-dimensional extent of groundwatermore » contamination that would be considered unsafe for domestic and municipal use. Two types of boundaries (contaminant and compliance) are discussed in the FFACO that will map the three-dimensional extent of radionuclide contamination. The contaminant boundary will identify the region wi th 95 percent certainty that contaminants do not exist above a threshold value. It will be prepared by the DOE and presented to NDEP. The compliance boundary will be produced as a result of negotiation between the DOE and NDEP, and can be coincident with, or differ from, the contaminant boundary. Two different thresholds are considered for the contaminant boundary. One is based on the enforceable National Primary Drinking Water Regulations for radionuclides, which were developed as a requirement of the Safe Drinking Water Act. The other is a risk-based threshold considering applicable lifetime excess cancer-risk-based criteria The contaminant boundary for the Faultless underground nuclear test at the Central Nevada Test Area (CNTA) is calculated using a newly developed groundwater flow and radionuclide transport model that incorporates aspects of both the original three-dimensional model (Pohlmann et al., 1999) and the two-dimensional model developed for the Faultless data decision analysis (DDA) (Pohll and Mihevc, 2000). This new model includes the uncertainty in the three-dimensional spatial distribution of lithology and hydraulic conductivity from the 1999 model as well as the uncertainty in the other flow and transport parameters from the 2000 DDA model. Additionally, the new model focuses on a much smaller region than was included in the earlier models, that is, the subsurface within the UC-1 land withdrawal area where the 1999 model predicted radionuclide transport will occur over the next 1,000 years. The purpose of this unclassified document is to present the modifications to the CNTA groundwater flow and transport model, to present the methodology used to calculate contaminant boundaries, and to present the Safe Drinking Water Act and risk-derived contaminant boundaries for the Faultless underground nuclear test CAU.« less

Utilizing constructivism learning theory in collaborative testing as a creative strategy to promote essential nursing skills.

PubMed

Duane, Barbara T; Satre, Maria E

2014-01-01

In nursing education, students participate in individual learner testing. This process follows the instructionist learning theory of a system model. However, in the practice of nursing, success depends upon collaboration with numerous people in different capacities, critical thinking, clinical reasoning, and the ability to communicate with others. Research has shown that collaborative testing, a constructivism learning activity and a form of collaborative learning, enhances students' abilities to master these areas. Collaborative testing is a clear, creative strategy which constructivists would say supports the socio-linguistic base of their learning theory. The test becomes an active implementation of peer-mediated learning where individual knowledge is enhanced through problem solving or defense of an individual position with the collaborative method. There is criticism for the testing method's potential of grade inflation and for students to receive grade benefits with little effort. After a review of various collaborative testing methods, this nursing faculty implemented a collaborative testing format that addresses both the positive and negative aspects of the process. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Vision Integrating Strategies in Ophthalmology and Neurochemistry (VISION)

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-02-01

in the above figure. We have already tested this virus in P23H Rhodopsin rat model of retinitis pigmentosa and found that it has a therapeutic...We have established three different mouse models of ocular injury with different injury-initiating mechanisms (i.e. optic nerve crush, retinal ...functionally and structurally rescue photoreceptor cells in rodent models of retinal degeneration. She brings expertise in gene therapy and in cellular

Are Delinquents Different? Predictive Patterns for Low, Mid and High Delinquency Levels in a General Youth Sample via the HEW Youth Development Model's Impact Scales.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Truckenmiller, James L.

The Health, Education and Welfare (HEW) Office of Youth Development's National Strategy for Youth Development model was promoted as a community-based planning and procedural tool for enhancing positive youth development and reducing delinquency. To test the applicability of the model as a function of delinquency level, the program's Impact Scales…

The optimal imaging strategy for patients with stable chest pain: a cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Genders, Tessa S S; Petersen, Steffen E; Pugliese, Francesca; Dastidar, Amardeep G; Fleischmann, Kirsten E; Nieman, Koen; Hunink, M G Myriam

2015-04-07

The optimal imaging strategy for patients with stable chest pain is uncertain. To determine the cost-effectiveness of different imaging strategies for patients with stable chest pain. Microsimulation state-transition model. Published literature. 60-year-old patients with a low to intermediate probability of coronary artery disease (CAD). Lifetime. The United States, the United Kingdom, and the Netherlands. Coronary computed tomography (CT) angiography, cardiac stress magnetic resonance imaging, stress single-photon emission CT, and stress echocardiography. Lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. The strategy that maximized QALYs and was cost-effective in the United States and the Netherlands began with coronary CT angiography, continued with cardiac stress imaging if angiography found at least 50% stenosis in at least 1 coronary artery, and ended with catheter-based coronary angiography if stress imaging induced ischemia of any severity. For U.K. men, the preferred strategy was optimal medical therapy without catheter-based coronary angiography if coronary CT angiography found only moderate CAD or stress imaging induced only mild ischemia. In these strategies, stress echocardiography was consistently more effective and less expensive than other stress imaging tests. For U.K. women, the optimal strategy was stress echocardiography followed by catheter-based coronary angiography if echocardiography induced mild or moderate ischemia. Results were sensitive to changes in the probability of CAD and assumptions about false-positive results. All cardiac stress imaging tests were assumed to be available. Exercise electrocardiography was included only in a sensitivity analysis. Differences in QALYs among strategies were small. Coronary CT angiography is a cost-effective triage test for 60-year-old patients who have nonacute chest pain and a low to intermediate probability of CAD. Erasmus University Medical Center.

Costs, effectiveness, and workload impact of management strategies for women with an adnexal mass.

PubMed

Havrilesky, Laura J; Dinan, Michaela; Sfakianos, Gregory P; Curtis, Lesley H; Barnett, Jason C; Van Gorp, Toon; Myers, Evan R

2015-01-01

We compared the estimated clinical outcomes, costs, and physician workload resulting from available strategies for deciding which women with an adnexal mass should be referred to a gynecologic oncologist. We used a microsimulation model to compare five referral strategies: 1) American Congress of Obstetricians and Gynecologists (ACOG) guidelines, 2) Multivariate Index Assay (MIA) algorithm, 3) Risk of Malignancy Algorithm (ROMA), 4) CA125 alone with lowered cutoff values to prioritize test sensitivity over specificity, 5) referral of all women (Refer All). Test characteristics and relative survival were obtained from the literature and data from a biomarker validation study. Medical costs were estimated using Medicare reimbursements. Travel costs were estimated using discharge data from Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-Medicare and State Inpatient Databases. Analyses were performed separately for pre- and postmenopausal women (60 000 "subjects" in each), repeated 10 000 times. Refer All was cost-effective compared with less expensive strategies in both postmenopausal (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [ICER] $9423/year of life saved (LYS) compared with CA125) and premenopausal women (ICER $10 644/YLS compared with CA125), but would result in an additional 73 cases/year/subspecialist. MIA was more expensive and less effective than Refer All in pre- and postmenopausal women. If Refer All is not a viable option, CA125 is an optimal strategy in postmenopausal women. Referral of all women to a subspecialist is an efficient strategy for managing women with adnexal masses requiring surgery, assuming sufficient capacity for additional surgical volume. If a test-based triage strategy is needed, CA125 with lowered cutoff values is a cost-effective strategy. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Seth, Arpan; Klise, Katherine A.; Siirola, John D.

In the event of contamination in a water distribution network (WDN), source identification (SI) methods that analyze sensor data can be used to identify the source location(s). Knowledge of the source location and characteristics are important to inform contamination control and cleanup operations. Various SI strategies that have been developed by researchers differ in their underlying assumptions and solution techniques. The following manuscript presents a systematic procedure for testing and evaluating SI methods. The performance of these SI methods is affected by various factors including the size of WDN model, measurement error, modeling error, time and number of contaminant injections,more » and time and number of measurements. This paper includes test cases that vary these factors and evaluates three SI methods on the basis of accuracy and specificity. The tests are used to review and compare these different SI methods, highlighting their strengths in handling various identification scenarios. These SI methods and a testing framework that includes the test cases and analysis tools presented in this paper have been integrated into EPA’s Water Security Toolkit (WST), a suite of software tools to help researchers and others in the water industry evaluate and plan various response strategies in case of a contamination incident. Lastly, a set of recommendations are made for users to consider when working with different categories of SI methods.« less

Effects of Individual Differences and Job Characteristics on the Psychological Health of Italian Nurses

PubMed Central

Zurlo, Maria Clelia; Vallone, Federica; Smith, Andrew P.

2018-01-01

The Demand Resources and Individual Effects Model (DRIVE Model) is a transactional model that integrates Demands- Control-Support and Effort-Reward Imbalance models emphasising the role of individual (Coping Strategies; Overcommitment) and job characteristics (Job Demands, Social Support, Decision Latitude, Skill Discretion, Effort, Rewards) in the work-related stress process. The present study aimed to test the DRIVE Model in a sample of 450 Italian nurses and to compare findings with those of a study conducted in a sample of UK nurses. A questionnaire composed of Ways of Coping Checklist-Revised (WCCL-R); Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ); ERI Test; Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) was used. Data supported the application of the DRIVE Model to the Italian context, showing significant associations of the individual characteristics of Problem-focused, Seek Advice and Wishful Thinking coping strategies and the job characteristics of Job Demands, Skill Discretion, Decision Latitude, and Effort with perceived levels of Anxiety and Depression. Effort represented the best predictor for psychological health conditions among Italian nurses, and Social Support significantly moderated the effects of Job Demands on perceived levels of Anxiety. The comparison study showed significant differences in the risk profiles of Italian and UK nurses. Findings were discussed in order to define focused interventions to promote nurses’ wellbeing.

The Combined Effects of Classroom Teaching and Learning Strategy Use on Students' Chemistry Self-Efficacy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheung, Derek

2015-02-01

For students to be successful in school chemistry, a strong sense of self-efficacy is essential. Chemistry self-efficacy can be defined as students' beliefs about the extent to which they are capable of performing specific chemistry tasks. According to Bandura (Psychol. Rev. 84:191-215, 1977), students acquire information about their level of self-efficacy from four sources: performance accomplishments, vicarious experiences, verbal persuasion, and physiological states. No published studies have investigated how instructional strategies in chemistry lessons can provide students with positive experiences with these four sources of self-efficacy information and how the instructional strategies promote students' chemistry self-efficacy. In this study, questionnaire items were constructed to measure student perceptions about instructional strategies, termed efficacy-enhancing teaching, which can provide positive experiences with the four sources of self-efficacy information. Structural equation modeling was then applied to test a hypothesized mediation model, positing that efficacy-enhancing teaching positively affects students' chemistry self-efficacy through their use of deep learning strategies such as metacognitive control strategies. A total of 590 chemistry students at nine secondary schools in Hong Kong participated in the survey. The mediation model provided a good fit to the student data. Efficacy-enhancing teaching had a direct effect on students' chemistry self-efficacy. Efficacy-enhancing teaching also directly affected students' use of deep learning strategies, which in turn affected students' chemistry self-efficacy. The implications of these findings for developing secondary school students' chemistry self-efficacy are discussed.

Interactive Model-Centric Systems Engineering (IMCSE) Phase Two

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-28

109 Backend Implementation...42 Figure 10. Interactive Epoch-Era Analysis leverages humans-in-the-loop analysis and supporting infrastructure ...preliminary supporting 10 infrastructure . This will inform the transition strategies, additional case application and prototype user testing. • The