Using Flow Charts to Visualize the Decision-Making Process in Space Weather Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aung, M. T. Y.; Myat, T.; Zheng, Y.; Mays, M. L.; Ngwira, C.; Damas, M. C.

2016-12-01

Our society today relies heavily on technological systems such as satellites, navigation systems, power grids and aviation. These systems are very sensitive to space weather disturbances. When Earth-directed space weather driven by the Sun arrives at the Earth, it causes changes to the Earth's radiation environment and the magnetosphere. Strong disturbances in the magnetosphere of the Earth are responsible for geomagnetic storms that can last from hours to days depending on strength of storms. Geomagnetic storms can severely impact critical infrastructure on Earth, such as the electric power grid, and Solar Energetic Particles that can endanger life in outer space. How can we lessen these adverse effects? They can be lessened through the early warning signals sent by space weather forecasters before CME or high-speed stream arrives. A space weather forecaster's duty is to send predicted notifications to high-tech industries and NASA missions so that they could take extra measures for protection. NASA space weather forecasters make prediction decisions by following certain steps and processes from the time an event occurs at the sun all the way to the impact locations. However, there has never been a tool that helps these forecasters visualize the decision process until now. A flow chart is created to help forecasters visualize the decision process. This flow chart provides basic knowledge of space weather and can be used to train future space weather forecasters. It also helps to cut down the training period and increase consistency in forecasting. The flow chart is also a great reference for people who are already familiar with space weather.

Parameter estimation of an ARMA model for river flow forecasting using goal programming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammadi, Kourosh; Eslami, H. R.; Kahawita, Rene

2006-11-01

SummaryRiver flow forecasting constitutes one of the most important applications in hydrology. Several methods have been developed for this purpose and one of the most famous techniques is the Auto regressive moving average (ARMA) model. In the research reported here, the goal was to minimize the error for a specific season of the year as well as for the complete series. Goal programming (GP) was used to estimate the ARMA model parameters. Shaloo Bridge station on the Karun River with 68 years of observed stream flow data was selected to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results when compared with the usual method of maximum likelihood estimation were favorable with respect to the new proposed algorithm.

StreamFlow 1.0: an extension to the spatially distributed snow model Alpine3D for hydrological modelling and deterministic stream temperature prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gallice, Aurélien; Bavay, Mathias; Brauchli, Tristan; Comola, Francesco; Lehning, Michael; Huwald, Hendrik

2016-12-01

Climate change is expected to strongly impact the hydrological and thermal regimes of Alpine rivers within the coming decades. In this context, the development of hydrological models accounting for the specific dynamics of Alpine catchments appears as one of the promising approaches to reduce our uncertainty of future mountain hydrology. This paper describes the improvements brought to StreamFlow, an existing model for hydrological and stream temperature prediction built as an external extension to the physically based snow model Alpine3D. StreamFlow's source code has been entirely written anew, taking advantage of object-oriented programming to significantly improve its structure and ease the implementation of future developments. The source code is now publicly available online, along with a complete documentation. A special emphasis has been put on modularity during the re-implementation of StreamFlow, so that many model aspects can be represented using different alternatives. For example, several options are now available to model the advection of water within the stream. This allows for an easy and fast comparison between different approaches and helps in defining more reliable uncertainty estimates of the model forecasts. In particular, a case study in a Swiss Alpine catchment reveals that the stream temperature predictions are particularly sensitive to the approach used to model the temperature of subsurface flow, a fact which has been poorly reported in the literature to date. Based on the case study, StreamFlow is shown to reproduce hourly mean discharge with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) of 0.82 and hourly mean temperature with a NSE of 0.78.

Model based hydropower gate operation for mitigation of CSO impacts by means of river base flow increase.

PubMed

Achleitner, S; De Toffol, S; Engelhard, C; Rauch, W

2005-01-01

In river stretches being subjected to flow regulation, usually for the purpose of energy production (e.g. Hydropower) or flood protection (river barrage), a special measure can be taken against the effect of combined sewer overflows (CSOs). The basic idea is the temporal increase of the river base flow (during storm weather) as an in-stream measure for mitigation of CSO spilling. The focus is the mitigation of the negative effect of acute pollution of substances. The measure developed can be seen as an application of the classic real time control (RTC) concept onto the river system. Upstream gate operation is to be based on real time monitoring and forecasting of precipitation. The main objective is the development of a model based predictive control system for the gate operation, by modelling of the overall wastewater system (incl. the receiving water). The main emphasis is put on the operational strategy and the appropriate short-term forecast of spilling events. The potential of the measure is tested for the application of the operational strategy and its ecological and economic feasibility. The implementation of such an in-stream measure into the hydropower's operational scheme is unique. Advantages are (a) the additional in-stream dilution of acute pollutants entering the receiving water and (b) the resulting minimization of the required CSO storage volume.

Preliminary Cost Benefit Assessment of Systems for Detection of Hazardous Weather. Volume I,

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-07-01

not be sufficient for adequate stream flow forecasting , it has important potential for real - time flash flood warning. This was illustrated by the 1977...provide a finer spatial resolution of the gridded data. See Table 9. 42 The results of a demonstration of the real - time capabilities of a radar-man system ...detailed real time measurement capabilities and scope for quantitative forecasting is most likely to provide the degree of lead time required if maximum

Seasonal streamflow prediction using ensemble streamflow prediction technique for the Rangitata and Waitaki River basins on the South Island of New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Shailesh Kumar

2014-05-01

Streamflow forecasts are essential for making critical decision for optimal allocation of water supplies for various demands that include irrigation for agriculture, habitat for fisheries, hydropower production and flood warning. The major objective of this study is to explore the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) based forecast in New Zealand catchments and to highlights the present capability of seasonal flow forecasting of National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA). In this study a probabilistic forecast framework for ESP is presented. The basic assumption in ESP is that future weather pattern were experienced historically. Hence, past forcing data can be used with current initial condition to generate an ensemble of prediction. Small differences in initial conditions can result in large difference in the forecast. The initial state of catchment can be obtained by continuously running the model till current time and use this initial state with past forcing data to generate ensemble of flow for future. The approach taken here is to run TopNet hydrological models with a range of past forcing data (precipitation, temperature etc.) with current initial conditions. The collection of runs is called the ensemble. ESP give probabilistic forecasts for flow. From ensemble members the probability distributions can be derived. The probability distributions capture part of the intrinsic uncertainty in weather or climate. An ensemble stream flow prediction which provide probabilistic hydrological forecast with lead time up to 3 months is presented for Rangitata, Ahuriri, and Hooker and Jollie rivers in South Island of New Zealand. ESP based seasonal forecast have better skill than climatology. This system can provide better over all information for holistic water resource management.

Forecasting monthly inflow discharge of the Iffezheim reservoir using data-driven models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Qing; Aljoumani, Basem; Hillebrand, Gudrun; Hoffmann, Thomas; Hinkelmann, Reinhard

2017-04-01

River stream flow is an essential element in hydrology study fields, especially for reservoir management, since it defines input into reservoirs. Forecasting this stream flow plays an important role in short or long-term planning and management in the reservoir, e.g. optimized reservoir and hydroelectric operation or agricultural irrigation. Highly accurate flow forecasting can significantly reduce economic losses and is always pursued by reservoir operators. Therefore, hydrologic time series forecasting has received tremendous attention of researchers. Many models have been proposed to improve the hydrological forecasting. Due to the fact that most natural phenomena occurring in environmental systems appear to behave in random or probabilistic ways, different cases may need a different methods to forecast the inflow and even a unique treatment to improve the forecast accuracy. The purpose of this study is to determine an appropriate model for forecasting monthly inflow to the Iffezheim reservoir in Germany, which is the last of the barrages in the Upper Rhine. Monthly time series of discharges, measured from 1946 to 2001 at the Plittersdorf station, which is located 6 km downstream of the Iffezheim reservoir, were applied. The accuracies of the used stochastic models - Fiering model and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average models (ARIMA) are compared with Artificial Intelligence (AI) models - single Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Wavelet ANN models (WANN). The Fiering model is a linear stochastic model and used for generating synthetic monthly data. The basic idea in modeling time series using ARIMA is to identify a simple model with as few model parameters as possible in order to provide a good statistical fit to the data. To identify and fit the ARIMA models, four phase approaches were used: identification, parameter estimation, diagnostic checking, and forecasting. An automatic selection criterion, such as the Akaike information criterion, is utilized to enhance this flexible approach to set up the model. As distinct from both stochastic models, the ANN and its related conjunction methods Wavelet-ANN (WANN) models are effective to handle non-linear systems and have been developed with antecedent flows as inputs to forecast up to 12-months lead-time for the Iffezheim reservoir. In the ANN and WANN models, the Feed Forward Back Propagation method (FFBP) is applied. The sigmoid activity and linear functions were used with several different neurons for the hidden layers and for the output layer, respectively. To compare the accuracy of the different models and identify the most suitable model for reliable forecasting, four quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, the root mean square error (RMSE), the mean bias error (MAE) and the determination correlation coefficient (DC), are employed. The results reveal that the ARIMA (2, 1, 2) performs better than Fiering, ANN and WANN models. Further, the WANN model is found to be slightly better than the ANN model for forecasting monthly inflow of the Iffezheim reservoir. As a result, by using the ARIMA model, the predicted and observed values agree reasonably well.

Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Forecasting model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brainard, James Robert

2009-10-01

This report documents The Nambe Pueblo Water Budget and Water Forecasting model. The model has been constructed using Powersim Studio (PS), a software package designed to investigate complex systems where flows and accumulations are central to the system. Here PS has been used as a platform for modeling various aspects of Nambe Pueblo's current and future water use. The model contains three major components, the Water Forecast Component, Irrigation Scheduling Component, and the Reservoir Model Component. In each of the components, the user can change variables to investigate the impacts of water management scenarios on future water use. The Watermore » Forecast Component includes forecasting for industrial, commercial, and livestock use. Domestic demand is also forecasted based on user specified current population, population growth rates, and per capita water consumption. Irrigation efficiencies are quantified in the Irrigated Agriculture component using critical information concerning diversion rates, acreages, ditch dimensions and seepage rates. Results from this section are used in the Water Demand Forecast, Irrigation Scheduling, and the Reservoir Model components. The Reservoir Component contains two sections, (1) Storage and Inflow Accumulations by Categories and (2) Release, Diversion and Shortages. Results from both sections are derived from the calibrated Nambe Reservoir model where historic, pre-dam or above dam USGS stream flow data is fed into the model and releases are calculated.« less

Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations - An Opportunity to Improve Water Supply Reliability Lake Mendocino Demonstration Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jasperse, J.; Ralph, F. M.

2016-12-01

Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) is a management strategy that is gaining interest in the western United States as a means to improve the performance of reservoirs to provide more reliable water supply for municipal, agricultural, and environmental water needs as well as enhancing the flood protection capacity of reservoirs. Many surface water reservoirs were built decades ago and are operated in accordance with rules that were developed based on the best information at the time of construction. Over time there have been increasing stressors that impact effective reservoir operations including: increasing water demand; providing in-stream flows for habitat of aquatic species; and climate change. Few new reservoirs are being constructed, therefore there is motivation by water managers to more effectively operate existing reservoirs by optimizing operational rules under a decision framework that considers forecasting. The viability of FIRO is being investigated at Lake Mendocino in northern California. This facility is managed for flood protection by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) while the Sonoma County Water Agency (SCWA) is responsible for the management of the water supply pool. Reductions of reservoir inflow due to recent operational license conditions of an upstream hydroelectric facility coupled with highly variable precipitation (due to the significance of atmospheric rivers in the region) has led to difficulties in maintaining reservoir storage to meet stream flows for agricultural and municipal water users and to meet in-stream flow requirements for three salmonid species listed under the Endangered Species Act. The reduced water supply reliability of the reservoir has motivated water managers and scientists from local, state, and federal agencies to investigate whether FIRO could help address this challenge. This effort is led by a Steering Committee comprised of members from SCWA, Scripps-UC San Diego, USACE, NOAA, California Department of Water Resources, USGS, and Bureau of Reclamation. The partnership is involved with: conducting a preliminary viability assessment; evaluating operational strategies and decision support tools should FIRO be found to be viable; and coordinating research to support advances in new technology and improved forecasting skill.

Using Data Assimilation in Real-Time Hydrological Modeling of Groundwater and Stream Flow in Silkeborg, Denmark

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, X.; Kidmose, J.; Madsen, H.; Zheng, C.; Refsgaard, J. C.

2017-12-01

Climate adaptation strategies have nowadays been used more and more frequently in European cities, such as low impact development to increase infiltration and thus reduce the risk of urban flooding. An alternative approach to cope with the increased precipitation under the future climate condition is by using real-time management techniques to operate the drainage system. In the present study, we developed a real-time hydrological modeling system which can forecast both surface water and groundwater in the city of Silkeborg, Denmark. The model is based on MIKE SHE code, and operates on 50 × 50 m grid cell with hourly time step. Real-time observation data, i.e. groundwater head data from 35 wells and 4 stream flow gauging stations, are used in a data assimilation (DA) framework in order to correct bias in each calculation cell. The DA framework is based on ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) where uncertainties from forcing data, model parameters as well as observations are taken into consideration. A case study has been carried out where the DA enabled MIKE SHE model was executed in conjunction with the rainfall products from the Danish Meteorological Institute: short term weather forecast coming from HIRLAM model with temporal resolution of 10 minutes and 8 hours lead time, and longer term forecast coming from HARMONIE model with temporal resolution of 1 hour and 48 hour lead time. The results show that DA can visibly increase the model performance for both groundwater head and stream discharge simulations. Even for the short period when observation data are not available (June 2016), the DA based model can still outperform the model without DA. In the forecasting mode, the simulated stream discharge is much more responsive to the increase of rainfall than groundwater as expected. The predicted and observed groundwater head in some areas only varies in the magnitude of a few centimeters, which does not have so much practical meaning in reality, whereas in other areas it could be as high as 1 m depending on the underlying geology.

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; Gao, Xiong; Yu, Chen

2017-06-01

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLE confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. The Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.

Use of satellite data in runoff forecasting in the heavily forested, cloud-covered Pacific Northwest. [Upper Snake, Boise, Dworshak, Libby and Hungry Horse River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dillard, J. P.; Orwig, C. F. (Principal Investigator)

1980-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Satellite-derived snow cover data improves forecasts of stream flow but not at a statistically significant amount and should not be used exclusively because of persistent cloud cover. Based upon reconstruction runs, satellite data can be used to augment snow-flight data in the Upper Snake, Boise, Dworshak, and Hungry Horse basins. Satellite data does not compare well with aerial snow-flight data in the Libby basin.

Seasonal forecasting of discharge for the Raccoon River, Iowa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Slater, Louise; Villarini, Gabriele; Bradley, Allen; Vecchi, Gabriel

2016-04-01

The state of Iowa (central United States) is regularly afflicted by severe natural hazards such as the 2008/2013 floods and the 2012 drought. To improve preparedness for these catastrophic events and allow Iowans to make more informed decisions about the most suitable water management strategies, we have developed a framework for medium to long range probabilistic seasonal streamflow forecasting for the Raccoon River at Van Meter, a 8900-km2 catchment located in central-western Iowa. Our flow forecasts use statistical models to predict seasonal discharge for low to high flows, with lead forecasting times ranging from one to ten months. Historical measurements of daily discharge are obtained from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) at the Van Meter stream gage, and used to compute quantile time series from minimum to maximum seasonal flow. The model is forced with basin-averaged total seasonal precipitation records from the PRISM Climate Group and annual row crop production acreage from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's National Agricultural Statistics Services database. For the forecasts, we use corn and soybean production from the previous year (persistence forecast) as a proxy for the impacts of agricultural practices on streamflow. The monthly precipitation forecasts are provided by eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), with lead times ranging from 0.5 to 11.5 months, and a resolution of 1 decimal degree. Additionally, precipitation from the month preceding each season is used to characterize antecedent soil moisture conditions. The accuracy of our modelled (1927-2015) and forecasted (2001-2015) discharge values is assessed by comparison with the observed USGS data. We explore the sensitivity of forecast skill over the full range of lead times, flow quantiles, forecast seasons, and with each GCM. Forecast skill is also examined using different formulations of the statistical models, as well as NMME forecast weighting procedures based on the computed potential skill (historical forecast accuracy) of the different GCMs. We find that the models describe the year-to-year variability in streamflow accurately, as well as the overall tendency towards increasing (and more variable) discharge over time. Surprisingly, forecast skill does not decrease markedly with lead time, and high flows tend to be well predicted, suggesting that these forecasts may have considerable practical applications. Further, the seasonal flow forecast accuracy is substantially improved by weighting the contribution of individual GCMs to the forecasts, and also by the inclusion of antecedent precipitation. Our results can provide critical information for adaptation strategies aiming to mitigate the costs and disruptions arising from flood and drought conditions, and allow us to determine how far in advance skillful forecasts can be issued. The availability of these discharge forecasts would have major societal and economic benefits for hydrology and water resources management, agriculture, disaster forecasts and prevention, energy, finance and insurance, food security, policy-making and public authorities, and transportation.

Total probabilities of ensemble runoff forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

2017-04-01

Ensemble forecasting has a long history from meteorological modelling, as an indication of the uncertainty of the forecasts. However, it is necessary to calibrate and post-process the ensembles as the they often exhibit both bias and dispersion errors. Two of the most common methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). Engeland and Steinsland Engeland and Steinsland (2014) developed a framework which can estimate post-processing parameters varying in space and time, while giving a spatially and temporally consistent output. However, their method is computationally complex for our larger number of stations, which makes it unsuitable for our purpose. Our post-processing method of the ensembles is developed in the framework of the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS - http://www.efas.eu), where we are making forecasts for whole Europe, and based on observations from around 700 catchments. As the target is flood forecasting, we are also more interested in improving the forecast skill for high-flows rather than in a good prediction of the entire flow regime. EFAS uses a combination of ensemble forecasts and deterministic forecasts from different meteorological forecasters to force a distributed hydrologic model and to compute runoff ensembles for each river pixel within the model domain. Instead of showing the mean and the variability of each forecast ensemble individually, we will now post-process all model outputs to estimate the total probability, the post-processed mean and uncertainty of all ensembles. The post-processing parameters are first calibrated for each calibration location, but we are adding a spatial penalty in the calibration process to force a spatial correlation of the parameters. The penalty takes distance, stream-connectivity and size of the catchment areas into account. This can in some cases have a slight negative impact on the calibration error, but avoids large differences between parameters of nearby locations, whether stream connected or not. The spatial calibration also makes it easier to interpolate the post-processing parameters to uncalibrated locations. We also look into different methods for handling the non-normal distributions of runoff data and the effect of different data transformations on forecasts skills in general and for floods in particular. Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T.: Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 135(4), 1386-1402, doi:10.1175/MWR3341.1, 2007. Engeland, K. and Steinsland, I.: Probabilistic postprocessing models for flow forecasts for a system of catchments and several lead times, Water Resour. Res., 50(1), 182-197, doi:10.1002/2012WR012757, 2014. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A. H. and Goldman, T.: Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1098-1118, doi:10.1175/MWR2904.1, 2005. Hemri, S., Fundel, F. and Zappa, M.: Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times, Water Resour. Res., 49(10), 6744-6755, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20542, 2013. Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M.: Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1155-1174, doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1, 2005.

Economic Analysis of the Impacts of Climate-Induced Changes in River Flow on Hydropower and Fisheries in Himalayan region.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khadka Mishra, S.; Hayse, J.; Veselka, T.; Yan, E.; Kayastha, R. B.; McDonald, K.; Steiner, N.; Lagory, K.

2017-12-01

Climate-mediated changes in melting of snow and glaciers and in precipitation patterns are expected to significantly alter the water flow of rivers at various spatial and temporal scales. Hydropower generation and fisheries are likely to be impacted annually and over the century by the seasonal as well as long-term changes in hydrological conditions. In order to quantify the interactions between the drivers of climate change, the hydropower sector and the ecosystem we developed an integrated assessment framework that links climate models with process-based bio-physical and economic models. This framework was applied to estimate the impacts of changes in snow and glacier melt on the stream flow of the Trishuli River of the High Mountain Asia Region. Remotely-sensed data and derived products, as well as in-situ data, were used to quantify the changes in snow and glacier melt. The hydrological model was calibrated and validated for stream flows at various points in the Trishuli river in order to forecast conditions at the location of a stream gauge station upstream of the Trishuli hydropower plant. The flow of Trishuli River was projected to increase in spring and decrease in summer over the period of 2020-2100 under RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 scenarios as compared to respective mean seasonal discharge observed over 1981-2014. The simulated future annual mean stream flow would increase by 0.6 m3/s under RCP 8.5 scenario but slightly decrease under RCP 4.5. The Argonne Hydropower Energy and Economic toolkit was used to estimate and forecast electricity generation at the Trishuli power plant under various flow conditions and upgraded infrastructure. The increased spring flow is expected to increase dry-season electricity generation by 18% under RCP 8.5 in comparison to RCP 4.5. A fishery suitability model developed for the basin indicated that fishery suitability in the Trishuli River would be greater than 70% of optimal, even during dry months under both RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The estimated economic value (preliminary result) of electricity generated from the Trishuli hydropower plant under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were projected to be 3.7% to 7.5% higher for the month of March while for the months of April and May the values were1.5% to 9.4% lower.

Bayesian forecasting and uncertainty quantifying of stream flows using Metropolis–Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm

DOE PAGES

Wang, Hongrui; Wang, Cheng; Wang, Ying; ...

2017-04-05

This paper presents a Bayesian approach using Metropolis-Hastings Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and applies this method for daily river flow rate forecast and uncertainty quantification for Zhujiachuan River using data collected from Qiaotoubao Gage Station and other 13 gage stations in Zhujiachuan watershed in China. The proposed method is also compared with the conventional maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for parameter estimation and quantification of associated uncertainties. While the Bayesian method performs similarly in estimating the mean value of daily flow rate, it performs over the conventional MLE method on uncertainty quantification, providing relatively narrower reliable interval than the MLEmore » confidence interval and thus more precise estimation by using the related information from regional gage stations. As a result, the Bayesian MCMC method might be more favorable in the uncertainty analysis and risk management.« less

Beyond Rating Curves: Time Series Models for in-Stream Turbidity Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Zion, M.; Pierson, D. C.

2012-12-01

The New York City Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) manages New York City's water supply, which is comprised of over 20 reservoirs and supplies over 1 billion gallons of water per day to more than 9 million customers. DEP's "West of Hudson" reservoirs located in the Catskill Mountains are unfiltered per a renewable filtration avoidance determination granted by the EPA. While water quality is usually pristine, high volume storm events occasionally cause the reservoirs to become highly turbid. A logical strategy for turbidity control is to temporarily remove the turbid reservoirs from service. While effective in limiting delivery of turbid water and reducing the need for in-reservoir alum flocculation, this strategy runs the risk of negatively impacting water supply reliability. Thus, it is advantageous for DEP to understand how long a particular turbidity event will affect their system. In order to understand the duration, intensity and total load of a turbidity event, predictions of future in-stream turbidity values are important. Traditionally, turbidity predictions have been carried out by applying streamflow observations/forecasts to a flow-turbidity rating curve. However, predictions from rating curves are often inaccurate due to inter- and intra-event variability in flow-turbidity relationships. Predictions can be improved by applying an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model in combination with a traditional rating curve. Since 2003, DEP and the Upstate Freshwater Institute have compiled a relatively consistent set of 15-minute turbidity observations at various locations on Esopus Creek above Ashokan Reservoir. Using daily averages of this data and streamflow observations at nearby USGS gauges, flow-turbidity rating curves were developed via linear regression. Time series analysis revealed that the linear regression residuals may be represented using an ARMA(1,2) process. Based on this information, flow-turbidity regressions with ARMA(1,2) errors were fit to the observations. Preliminary model validation exercises at a 30-day forecast horizon show that the ARMA error models generally improve the predictive skill of the linear regression rating curves. Skill seems to vary based on the ambient hydrologic conditions at the onset of the forecast. For example, ARMA error model forecasts issued before a high flow/turbidity event do not show significant improvements over the rating curve approach. However, ARMA error model forecasts issued during the "falling limb" of the hydrograph are significantly more accurate than rating curves for both single day and accumulated event predictions. In order to assist in reservoir operations decisions associated with turbidity events and general water supply reliability, DEP has initiated design of an Operations Support Tool (OST). OST integrates a reservoir operations model with 2D hydrodynamic water quality models and a database compiling near-real-time data sources and hydrologic forecasts. Currently, OST uses conventional flow-turbidity rating curves and hydrologic forecasts for predictive turbidity inputs. Given the improvements in predictive skill over traditional rating curves, the ARMA error models are currently being evaluated as an addition to DEP's Operations Support Tool.

Forecasting seasonal hydrologic response in major river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bhuiyan, A. M.

2014-05-01

Seasonal precipitation variation due to natural climate variation influences stream flow and the apparent frequency and severity of extreme hydrological conditions such as flood and drought. To study hydrologic response and understand the occurrence of extreme hydrological events, the relevant forcing variables must be identified. This study attempts to assess and quantify the historical occurrence and context of extreme hydrologic flow events and quantify the relation between relevant climate variables. Once identified, the flow data and climate variables are evaluated to identify the primary relationship indicators of hydrologic extreme event occurrence. Existing studies focus on developing basin-scale forecasting techniques based on climate anomalies in El Nino/La Nina episodes linked to global climate. Building on earlier work, the goal of this research is to quantify variations in historical river flows at seasonal temporal-scale, and regional to continental spatial-scale. The work identifies and quantifies runoff variability of major river basins and correlates flow with environmental forcing variables such as El Nino, La Nina, sunspot cycle. These variables are expected to be the primary external natural indicators of inter-annual and inter-seasonal patterns of regional precipitation and river flow. Relations between continental-scale hydrologic flows and external climate variables are evaluated through direct correlations in a seasonal context with environmental phenomenon such as sun spot numbers (SSN), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Methods including stochastic time series analysis and artificial neural networks are developed to represent the seasonal variability evident in the historical records of river flows. River flows are categorized into low, average and high flow levels to evaluate and simulate flow variations under associated climate variable variations. Results demonstrated not any particular method is suited to represent scenarios leading to extreme flow conditions. For selected flow scenarios, the persistence model performance may be comparable to more complex multivariate approaches, and complex methods did not always improve flow estimation. Overall model performance indicates inclusion of river flows and forcing variables on average improve model extreme event forecasting skills. As a means to further refine the flow estimation, an ensemble forecast method is implemented to provide a likelihood-based indication of expected river flow magnitude and variability. Results indicate seasonal flow variations are well-captured in the ensemble range, therefore the ensemble approach can often prove efficient in estimating extreme river flow conditions. The discriminant prediction approach, a probabilistic measure to forecast streamflow, is also adopted to derive model performance. Results show the efficiency of the method in terms of representing uncertainties in the forecasts.

Assessing the response of Emerald Lake, an alpine watershed in Sequoia National Park, California, to acidification during snowmelt by using a simple hydrochemical model. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hooper, R.P.; West, C.T.; Peters, N.E.

1990-08-01

The authors constructed a simple, process-oriented model, called the Alpine Lake Forecaster (ALF), using data collected during the Integrated Watershed Study at Emerald Lake, Sequoia National Park, CA. The model was designed to answer questions concerning the impact of acid deposition on high-elevation watersheds in the Sierra Nevada, CA. ALF is able to capture the basic solute patterns in stream water during snowmelt in this alpine catchment where ground water is a minor contributor to stream flow. It includes an empirical representation of primary mineral weathering as the only alkalinity-generating mechanism. Hydrologic and chemical data from a heavy snow yearmore » were used to calibrate the model. Watershed processes during a light snow year appeared to be different from the calibration year. The model forecast concludes that stream and lake water are most likely to experience a loss of ANC and depression in pH during spring rain storms that occur during the snowmelt dilution phase.« less

Stream water temperature limits occupancy of salamanders in mid-Atlantic protected areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Wiewel, Amber N. M.; Rice, Karen C.

2014-01-01

Stream ecosystems are particularly sensitive to urbanization, and tolerance of water-quality parameters is likely important to population persistence of stream salamanders. Forecasted climate and landscape changes may lead to significant changes in stream flow, chemical composition, and temperatures in coming decades. Protected areas where landscape alterations are minimized will therefore become increasingly important for salamander populations. We surveyed 29 streams at three national parks in the highly urbanized greater metropolitan area of Washington, DC. We investigated relationships among water-quality variables and occupancy of three species of stream salamanders (Desmognathus fuscus, Eurycea bislineata, and Pseudotriton ruber). With the use of a set of site-occupancy models, and accounting for imperfect detection, we found that stream-water temperature limits salamander occupancy. There was substantial uncertainty about the effects of the other water-quality variables, although both specific conductance (SC) and pH were included in competitive models. Our estimates of occupancy suggest that temperature, SC, and pH have some importance in structuring stream salamander distribution.

Modular GIS Framework for National Scale Hydrologic and Hydraulic Modeling Support

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Djokic, D.; Noman, N.; Kopp, S.

2015-12-01

Geographic information systems (GIS) have been extensively used for pre- and post-processing of hydrologic and hydraulic models at multiple scales. An extensible GIS-based framework was developed for characterization of drainage systems (stream networks, catchments, floodplain characteristics) and model integration. The framework is implemented as a set of free, open source, Python tools and builds on core ArcGIS functionality and uses geoprocessing capabilities to ensure extensibility. Utilization of COTS GIS core capabilities allows immediate use of model results in a variety of existing online applications and integration with other data sources and applications.The poster presents the use of this framework to downscale global hydrologic models to local hydraulic scale and post process the hydraulic modeling results and generate floodplains at any local resolution. Flow forecasts from ECMWF or WRF-Hydro are downscaled and combined with other ancillary data for input into the RAPID flood routing model. RAPID model results (stream flow along each reach) are ingested into a GIS-based scale dependent stream network database for efficient flow utilization and visualization over space and time. Once the flows are known at localized reaches, the tools can be used to derive the floodplain depth and extent for each time step in the forecast at any available local resolution. If existing rating curves are available they can be used to relate the flow to the depth of flooding, or synthetic rating curves can be derived using the tools in the toolkit and some ancillary data/assumptions. The results can be published as time-enabled spatial services to be consumed by web applications that use floodplain information as an input. Some of the existing online presentation templates can be easily combined with available online demographic and infrastructure data to present the impact of the potential floods on the local community through simple, end user products. This framework has been successfully used in both the data rich environments as well as in locales with minimum available spatial and hydrographic data.

Transforming Atmospheric and Remotely-Sensed Information to Hydrologic Predictability in South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopson, T. M.; Riddle, E. E.; Broman, D.; Brakenridge, G. R.; Birkett, C. M.; Kettner, A.; Sampson, K. M.; Boehnert, J.; Priya, S.; Collins, D. C.; Rostkier-Edelstein, D.; Young, W.; Singh, D.; Islam, A. S.

2017-12-01

South Asia is a flashpoint for natural disasters with profound societal impacts for the region and globally. Although close to 40% of the world's population depends on the Greater Himalaya's great rivers, $20 Billion of GDP is affected by river floods each year. The frequent occurrence of floods, combined with large and rapidly growing populations with high levels of poverty, make South Asia highly susceptible to humanitarian disasters. The challenges of mitigating such devastating disasters are exacerbated by the limited availability of real-time rain and stream gauge measuring stations and transboundary data sharing, and by constrained institutional commitments to overcome these challenges. To overcome such limitations, India and the World Bank have committed resources to the National Hydrology Project III, with the development objective to improve the extent, quality, and accessibility of water resources information and to strengthen the capacity of targeted water resources management institutions in India. The availability and application of remote sensing products and weather forecasts from ensemble prediction systems (EPS) have transformed river forecasting capability over the last decade, and is of interest to India. In this talk, we review the potential predictability of river flow contributed by some of the freely-available remotely-sensed and weather forecasting products within the framework of the physics of water migration through a watershed. Our specific geographical context is the Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Meghna river basin and a newly-available set of stream gauge measurements located over the region. We focus on satellite rainfall estimation, river height and width estimation, and EPS weather forecasts. For the later, we utilize the THORPEX-TIGGE dataset of global forecasts, and discuss how atmospheric predictability, as measured by an EPS, is transformed into hydrometeorological predictability. We provide an overview of the strengths and weaknesses of each of these data sets to the river flow prediction problem, generalizing their utility across spatial- and temporal-scales, and highlight the benefits of joint utilization and multi-modeling to minimize uncertainty and enhance operational robustness.

Simulating the Snow Water Equivalent and its changing pattern over Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niroula, S.; Joseph, J.; Ghosh, S.

2016-12-01

Snow fall in the Himalayan region is one of the primary sources of fresh water, which accounts around 10% of total precipitation of Nepal. Snow water is an intricate variable in terms of its global and regional estimates whose complexity is favored by spatial variability linked with rugged topography. The study is primarily focused on simulation of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) by the use of a macroscale hydrologic model, Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC). As whole Nepal including its Himalayas lies under the catchment of Ganga River in India, contributing at least 40% of annual discharge of Ganges, this model was run in the entire watershed that covers part of Tibet and Bangladesh as well. Meteorological inputs for 29 years (1979-2007) are drawn from ERA-INTERIM and APHRODITE dataset for horizontal resolution of 0.25 degrees. The analysis was performed to study temporal variability of SWE in the Himalayan region of Nepal. The model was calibrated by observed stream flows of the tributaries of the Gandaki River in Nepal which ultimately feeds river Ganga. Further, the simulated SWE is used to estimate stream flow in this river basin. Since Nepal has a greater snow cover accumulation in monsoon season than in winter at high altitudes, seasonality fluctuations in SWE affecting the stream flows are known. The model provided fair estimates of SWE and stream flow as per statistical analysis. Stream flows are known to be sensitive to the changes in snow water that can bring a negative impact on power generation in a country which has huge hydroelectric potential. In addition, our results on simulated SWE in second largest snow-fed catchment of the country will be helpful for reservoir management, flood forecasting and other water resource management issues. Keywords: Hydrology, Snow Water Equivalent, Variable Infiltration Capacity, Gandaki River Basin, Stream Flow

Season-ahead Drought Forecast Models for the Lower Colorado River Authority in Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Block, P. J.; Zimmerman, B.; Grzegorzewski, M.; Watkins, D. W., Jr.; Anderson, R.

2014-12-01

The Lower Colorado River Authority (LCRA) in Austin, Texas, manages the Highland Lakes reservoir system in Central Texas, a series of six lakes on the Lower Colorado River. This system provides water to approximately 1.1 million people in Central Texas, supplies hydropower to a 55-county area, supports rice farming along the Texas Gulf Coast, and sustains in-stream flows in the Lower Colorado River and freshwater inflows to Matagorda Bay. The current, prolonged drought conditions are severely taxing the LCRA's system, making allocation and management decisions exceptionally challenging, and affecting the ability of constituents to conduct proper planning. In this work, we further develop and evaluate season-ahead statistical streamflow and precipitation forecast models for integration into LCRA decision support models. Optimal forecast lead time, predictive skill, form, and communication are all considered.

Developing Snow Model Forcing Data From WRF Model Output to Aid in Water Resource Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Havens, S.; Marks, D. G.; Watson, K. A.; Masarik, M.; Flores, A. N.; Kormos, P.; Hedrick, A. R.

2015-12-01

Traditional operational modeling tools used by water managers in the west are challenged by more frequently occurring uncharacteristic stream flow patterns caused by climate change. Water managers are now turning to new models based on the physical processes within a watershed to combat the increasing number of events that do not follow the historical patterns. The USDA-ARS has provided near real time snow water equivalent (SWE) maps using iSnobal since WY2012 for the Boise River Basin in southwest Idaho and since WY2013 for the Tuolumne Basin in California that feeds the Hetch Hetchy reservoir. The goal of these projects is to not only provide current snowpack estimates but to use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to drive iSnobal in order to produce a forecasted stream flow when coupled to a hydrology model. The first step is to develop methods on how to create snow model forcing data from WRF outputs. Using a reanalysis 1km WRF dataset from WY2009 over the Boise River Basin, WRF model results like surface air temperature, relative humidity, wind, precipitation, cloud cover, and incoming long wave radiation must be downscaled for use in iSnobal. iSnobal results forced with WRF output are validated at point locations throughout the basin, as well as compared with iSnobal results forced with traditional weather station data. The presentation will explore the differences in forcing data derived from WRF outputs and weather stations and how this affects the snowpack distribution.

Inference of Stream Network Fragmentation Patterns from Ground Water - Surface Water Interactions on the High Plains Aquifer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chandler, D. G.; Yang, X.; Steward, D. R.; Gido, K.

2007-12-01

Stream networks in the Great Plains integrate fluxes from precipitation as surface runoff in discrete events and groundwater as base flow. Changes in land cover and agronomic practices and development of ground water resources to support irrigated agriculture have resulted in profound changes in the occurrence and magnitude of stream flows, especially near the Ogallala aquifer, where precipitation is low. These changes have demonstrably altered the aquatic habitat of western Kansas, with documented changes in fish populations, riparian communities and groundwater quality due to stream transmission losses. Forecasting future changes in aquatic and riparian ecology and groundwater quality requires a large scale spatially explicit model of groundwater- surface water interaction. In this study, we combine historical data on land use, stream flow, production well development and groundwater level observations with groundwater elevation modeling to support a geospatial framework for assessing changes in refugia for aquatic species in four rivers in western Kansas between 1965 and 2005. Decreased frequency and duration of streamflow occurred in all rivers, but the extent of change depended on the geomorphology of the river basin and the extent of groundwater development. In the absence of streamflow, refugia for aquatic species were defined as the stream reaches below the phreatic surface of the regional aquifer. Changes in extent, location and degree of fragmentation of gaining reaches was found to be a strong predictor of surface water occurrence during drought and a robust hydrological template for the analysis of changes in recharge to alluvial and regional aquifers and riparian and aquatic habitat.

Macroscale hydrologic modeling of ecologically relevant flow metrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wenger, Seth J.; Luce, Charles H.; Hamlet, Alan F.; Isaak, Daniel J.; Neville, Helen M.

2010-09-01

Stream hydrology strongly affects the structure of aquatic communities. Changes to air temperature and precipitation driven by increased greenhouse gas concentrations are shifting timing and volume of streamflows potentially affecting these communities. The variable infiltration capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrologic model has been employed at regional scales to describe and forecast hydrologic changes but has been calibrated and applied mainly to large rivers. An important question is how well VIC runoff simulations serve to answer questions about hydrologic changes in smaller streams, which are important habitat for many fish species. To answer this question, we aggregated gridded VIC outputs within the drainage basins of 55 streamflow gages in the Pacific Northwest United States and compared modeled hydrographs and summary metrics to observations. For most streams, several ecologically relevant aspects of the hydrologic regime were accurately modeled, including center of flow timing, mean annual and summer flows and frequency of winter floods. Frequencies of high and low flows in the summer were not well predicted, however. Predictions were worse for sites with strong groundwater influence, and some sites showed errors that may result from limitations in the forcing climate data. Higher resolution (1/16th degree) modeling provided small improvements over lower resolution (1/8th degree). Despite some limitations, the VIC model appears capable of representing several ecologically relevant hydrologic characteristics in streams, making it a useful tool for understanding the effects of hydrology in delimiting species distributions and predicting the potential effects of climate shifts on aquatic organisms.

The total probabilities from high-resolution ensemble forecasting of floods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Olav Skøien, Jon; Bogner, Konrad; Salamon, Peter; Smith, Paul; Pappenberger, Florian

2015-04-01

Ensemble forecasting has for a long time been used in meteorological modelling, to give an indication of the uncertainty of the forecasts. As meteorological ensemble forecasts often show some bias and dispersion errors, there is a need for calibration and post-processing of the ensembles. Typical methods for this are Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005) and Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) (Gneiting et al., 2005). There are also methods for regionalizing these methods (Berrocal et al., 2007) and for incorporating the correlation between lead times (Hemri et al., 2013). To make optimal predictions of floods along the stream network in hydrology, we can easily use the ensemble members as input to the hydrological models. However, some of the post-processing methods will need modifications when regionalizing the forecasts outside the calibration locations, as done by Hemri et al. (2013). We present a method for spatial regionalization of the post-processed forecasts based on EMOS and top-kriging (Skøien et al., 2006). We will also look into different methods for handling the non-normality of runoff and the effect on forecasts skills in general and for floods in particular. Berrocal, V. J., Raftery, A. E. and Gneiting, T.: Combining Spatial Statistical and Ensemble Information in Probabilistic Weather Forecasts, Mon. Weather Rev., 135(4), 1386-1402, doi:10.1175/MWR3341.1, 2007. Gneiting, T., Raftery, A. E., Westveld, A. H. and Goldman, T.: Calibrated Probabilistic Forecasting Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics and Minimum CRPS Estimation, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1098-1118, doi:10.1175/MWR2904.1, 2005. Hemri, S., Fundel, F. and Zappa, M.: Simultaneous calibration of ensemble river flow predictions over an entire range of lead times, Water Resour. Res., 49(10), 6744-6755, doi:10.1002/wrcr.20542, 2013. Raftery, A. E., Gneiting, T., Balabdaoui, F. and Polakowski, M.: Using Bayesian Model Averaging to Calibrate Forecast Ensembles, Mon. Weather Rev., 133(5), 1155-1174, doi:10.1175/MWR2906.1, 2005. Skøien, J. O., Merz, R. and Blöschl, G.: Top-kriging - Geostatistics on stream networks, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10(2), 277-287, 2006.

Clear turbulence forecasting - Towards a union of art and science

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Keller, J. L.

1985-01-01

The development of clear air turbulence (CAT) forecasting over the last several decades is reviewed in the context of empirical and theoretical research into the nature of nonconvective turbulence in the free atmosphere, particularly at jet stream levels. Various qualitative CAT forecasting techniques are examined, and prospects for an effective quantitative index to aid aviation meteorologists in jet stream level turbulence monitoring and forecasting are examined. Finally, the use of on-board sensors for short-term warning is discussed.

Modelling and Forecasting of Rice Yield in support of Crop Insurance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weerts, A.; van Verseveld, W.; Trambauer, P.; de Vries, S.; Conijn, S.; van Valkengoed, E.; Hoekman, D.; Hengsdijk, H.; Schrevel, A.

2016-12-01

The Government of Indonesia has embarked on a policy to bring crop insurance to all of Indonesia's farmers. To support the Indonesian government, the G4INDO project (www.g4indo.org) is developing/constructing an integrated platform for judging and handling insurance claims. The platform consists of bringing together remote sensed data (both visible and radar) and hydrologic and crop modelling and forecasting to improve predictions in one forecasting platform (i.e. Delft-FEWS, Werner et al., 2013). The hydrological model and crop model (LINTUL) are coupled on time stepping basis in the OpenStreams framework (see https://github.com/openstreams/wflow) and deployed in a Delft-FEWS forecasting platform to support seasonal forecasting of water availability and crop yield. First we will show the general idea about the project, the integrated platform (including Sentinel 1 & 2 data) followed by first (reforecast) results of the coupled models for predicting water availability and crop yield in the Brantas catchment in Java, Indonesia. Werner, M., Schellekens, J., Gijsbers, P., Van Dijk, M., Van den Akker, O. and Heynert K, 2013. The Delft-FEWS flow forecasting system, Environmental Modelling & Software; 40:65-77. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.07.010 .

Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Selbig, William R.

2015-01-01

The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2 °C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery.

Simulating the effect of climate change on stream temperature in the Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin.

PubMed

Selbig, William R

2015-07-15

The potential for increases in stream temperature across many spatial and temporal scales as a result of climate change can pose a difficult challenge for environmental managers, especially when addressing thermal requirements for sensitive aquatic species. This study evaluates simulated changes to the thermal regime of three northern Wisconsin streams in response to a projected changing climate using a modeling framework and considers implications of thermal stresses to the fish community. The Stream Network Temperature Model (SNTEMP) was used in combination with a coupled groundwater and surface water flow model to assess forecasts in climate from six global circulation models and three emission scenarios. Model results suggest that annual average stream temperature will steadily increase approximately 1.1 to 3.2°C (varying by stream) by the year 2100 with differences in magnitude between emission scenarios. Daily mean stream temperature during the months of July and August, a period when cold-water fish communities are most sensitive, showed excursions from optimal temperatures with increased frequency compared to current conditions. Projections of daily mean stream temperature, in some cases, were no longer in the range necessary to sustain a cold water fishery. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Simulation of climate-change effects on streamflow, lake water budgets, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP, Trout Lake Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Regan, R. Steve

2013-01-01

Although groundwater and surface water are considered a single resource, historically hydrologic simulations have not accounted for feedback loops between the groundwater system and other hydrologic processes. These feedbacks include timing and rates of evapotranspiration, surface runoff, soil-zone flow, and interactions with the groundwater system. Simulations that iteratively couple the surface-water and groundwater systems, however, are characterized by long run times and calibration challenges. In this study, calibrated, uncoupled transient surface-water and steady-state groundwater models were used to construct one coupled transient groundwater/surface-water model for the Trout Lake Watershed in north-central Wisconsin, USA. The computer code GSFLOW (Ground-water/Surface-water FLOW) was used to simulate the coupled hydrologic system; a surface-water model represented hydrologic processes in the atmosphere, at land surface, and within the soil-zone, and a groundwater-flow model represented the unsaturated zone, saturated zone, stream, and lake budgets. The coupled GSFLOW model was calibrated by using heads, streamflows, lake levels, actual evapotranspiration rates, solar radiation, and snowpack measurements collected during water years 1998–2007; calibration was performed by using advanced features present in the PEST parameter estimation software suite. Simulated streamflows from the calibrated GSFLOW model and other basin characteristics were used as input to the one-dimensional SNTEMP (Stream-Network TEMPerature) model to simulate daily stream temperature in selected tributaries in the watershed. The temperature model was calibrated to high-resolution stream temperature time-series data measured in 2002. The calibrated GSFLOW and SNTEMP models were then used to simulate effects of potential climate change for the period extending to the year 2100. An ensemble of climate models and emission scenarios was evaluated. Downscaled climate drivers for the period 2010–2100 showed increases in maximum and minimum temperature over the scenario period. Scenarios of future precipitation did not show a monotonic trend like temperature. Uncertainty in the climate drivers increased over time for both temperature and precipitation. Separate calibration of the uncoupled groundwater and surface-water models did not provide a representative initial parameter set for coupled model calibration. A sequentially linked calibration, in which the uncoupled models were linked by means of utility software, provided a starting parameter set suitable for coupled model calibration. Even with sequentially linked calibration, however, transmissivity of the lower part of the aquifer required further adjustment during coupled model calibration to attain reasonable parameter values for evaporation rates off a small seepage lake (a lake with no appreciable surface-water outlets) with a long history of study. The resulting coupled model was well calibrated to most types of observed time-series data used for calibration. Daily stream temperatures measured during 2002 were successfully simulated with SNTEMP; the model fit was acceptable for a range of groundwater inflow rates into the streams. Forecasts of potential climate change scenarios showed growing season length increasing by weeks, and both potential and actual evapotranspiration rates increasing appreciably, in response to increasing air temperature. Simulated actual evapotranspiration rates increased less than simulated potential evapotranspiration rates as a result of water limitation in the root zone during the summer high-evapotranspiration period. The hydrologic-system response to climate change was characterized by a reduction in the importance of the snow-melt pulse and an increase in the importance of fall and winter groundwater recharge. The less dynamic hydrologic regime is likely to result in drier soil conditions in rainfed wetlands and uplands, in contrast to less drying in groundwater-fed systems. Seepage lakes showed larger forecast stage declines related to climate change than did drainage lakes (lakes with outlet streams). Seepage lakes higher in the watershed (nearer to groundwater divides) had less groundwater inflow and thus had larger forecast declines in lake stage; however, ground-water inflow to seepage lakes in general tended to increase as a fraction of the lake budgets with lake-stage decline because inward hydraulic gradients increased. Drainage lakes were characterized by less simulated stage decline as reductions in outlet streamflow of set losses to other water flows. Net groundwater inflow tended to decrease in drainage lakes over the scenario period. Simulated stream temperatures increased appreciably with climate change. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the stream characterized by a high groundwater inflow rate and 2 to 3 degrees Celsius in the stream with a lower rate. The climate drivers used for the climate-change scenarios had appreciable variation between the General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; this uncertainty was reflected in hydrologic flow and temperature model results. Thus, as with all forecasts of this type, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change.

Debris flows: behavior and hazard assessment

USGS Publications Warehouse

Iverson, Richard M.

2014-01-01

Debris flows are water-laden masses of soil and fragmented rock that rush down mountainsides, funnel into stream channels, entrain objects in their paths, and form lobate deposits when they spill onto valley floors. Because they have volumetric sediment concentrations that exceed 40 percent, maximum speeds that surpass 10 m/s, and sizes that can range up to ~109 m3, debris flows can denude slopes, bury floodplains, and devastate people and property. Computational models can accurately represent the physics of debris-flow initiation, motion and deposition by simulating evolution of flow mass and momentum while accounting for interactions of debris' solid and fluid constituents. The use of physically based models for hazard forecasting can be limited by imprecise knowledge of initial and boundary conditions and material properties, however. Therefore, empirical methods continue to play an important role in debris-flow hazard assessment.

Can Recent Global Changes Explain the Dramatic Range Contraction of an Endangered Semi-Aquatic Mammal Species in the French Pyrenees?

PubMed

Charbonnel, Anaïs; Laffaille, Pascal; Biffi, Marjorie; Blanc, Frédéric; Maire, Anthony; Némoz, Mélanie; Sanchez-Perez, José Miguel; Sauvage, Sabine; Buisson, Laëtitia

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are the main tool to predict global change impacts on species ranges. Climate change alone is frequently considered, but in freshwater ecosystems, hydrology is a key driver of the ecology of aquatic species. At large scale, hydrology is however rarely accounted for, owing to the lack of detailed stream flow data. In this study, we developed an integrated modelling approach to simulate stream flow using the hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Simulated stream flow was subsequently included as an input variable in SDMs along with topographic, hydrographic, climatic and land-cover descriptors. SDMs were applied to two temporally-distinct surveys of the distribution of the endangered Pyrenean desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the French Pyrenees: a historical one conducted from 1985 to 1992 and a current one carried out between 2011 and 2013. The model calibrated on historical data was also forecasted onto the current period to assess its ability to describe the distributional change of the Pyrenean desman that has been modelled in the recent years. First, we found that hydrological and climatic variables were the ones influencing the most the distribution of this species for both periods, emphasizing the importance of taking into account hydrology when SDMs are applied to aquatic species. Secondly, our results highlighted a strong range contraction of the Pyrenean desman in the French Pyrenees over the last 25 years. Given that this range contraction was under-estimated when the historical model was forecasted onto current conditions, this finding suggests that other drivers may be interacting with climate, hydrology and land-use changes. Our results imply major concerns for the conservation of this endemic semi-aquatic mammal since changes in climate and hydrology are expected to become more intense in the future.

Can Recent Global Changes Explain the Dramatic Range Contraction of an Endangered Semi-Aquatic Mammal Species in the French Pyrenees?

PubMed Central

Charbonnel, Anaïs; Laffaille, Pascal; Biffi, Marjorie; Blanc, Frédéric; Maire, Anthony; Némoz, Mélanie; Sanchez-Perez, José Miguel; Sauvage, Sabine

2016-01-01

Species distribution models (SDMs) are the main tool to predict global change impacts on species ranges. Climate change alone is frequently considered, but in freshwater ecosystems, hydrology is a key driver of the ecology of aquatic species. At large scale, hydrology is however rarely accounted for, owing to the lack of detailed stream flow data. In this study, we developed an integrated modelling approach to simulate stream flow using the hydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Simulated stream flow was subsequently included as an input variable in SDMs along with topographic, hydrographic, climatic and land-cover descriptors. SDMs were applied to two temporally-distinct surveys of the distribution of the endangered Pyrenean desman (Galemys pyrenaicus) in the French Pyrenees: a historical one conducted from 1985 to 1992 and a current one carried out between 2011 and 2013. The model calibrated on historical data was also forecasted onto the current period to assess its ability to describe the distributional change of the Pyrenean desman that has been modelled in the recent years. First, we found that hydrological and climatic variables were the ones influencing the most the distribution of this species for both periods, emphasizing the importance of taking into account hydrology when SDMs are applied to aquatic species. Secondly, our results highlighted a strong range contraction of the Pyrenean desman in the French Pyrenees over the last 25 years. Given that this range contraction was under-estimated when the historical model was forecasted onto current conditions, this finding suggests that other drivers may be interacting with climate, hydrology and land-use changes. Our results imply major concerns for the conservation of this endemic semi-aquatic mammal since changes in climate and hydrology are expected to become more intense in the future. PMID:27467269

A Data-driven Approach for Forecasting Next-day River Discharge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharif, H. O.; Billah, K. S.

2017-12-01

This study focuses on evaluating the performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) eco-hydrological model, a simple Auto-Regressive with eXogenous input (ARX) model, and a Gene expression programming (GEP)-based model in one-day-ahead forecasting of discharge of a subtropical basin (the upper Kentucky River Basin). The three models were calibrated with daily flow at the US Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauging station not affected by flow regulation for the period of 2002-2005. The calibrated models were then validated at the same gauging station as well as another USGS gauge 88 km downstream for the period of 2008-2010. The results suggest that simple models outperform a sophisticated hydrological model with GEP having the advantage of being able to generate functional relationships that allow scientific investigation of the complex nonlinear interrelationships among input variables. Unlike SWAT, GEP, and to some extent, ARX are less sensitive to the length of the calibration time series and do not require a spin-up period.

Supporting Crop Loss Insurance Policy of Indonesia through Rice Yield Modelling and Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van Verseveld, Willem; Weerts, Albrecht; Trambauer, Patricia; de Vries, Sander; Conijn, Sjaak; van Valkengoed, Eric; Hoekman, Dirk; Grondard, Nicolas; Hengsdijk, Huib; Schrevel, Aart; Vlasbloem, Pieter; Klauser, Dominik

2017-04-01

The Government of Indonesia has decided on a crop insurance policy to assist Indonesia's farmers and to boost food security. To support the Indonesian government, the G4INDO project (www.g4indo.org) is developing/constructing an integrated platform implemented in the Delft-FEWS forecasting system (Werner et al., 2013). The integrated platform brings together remote sensed data (both visible and radar) and hydrologic, crop and reservoir modelling and forecasting to improve the modelling and forecasting of rice yield. The hydrological model (wflow_sbm), crop model (wflow_lintul) and reservoir models (RTC-Tools) are coupled on time stepping basis in the OpenStreams framework (see https://github.com/openstreams/wflow) and deployed in the integrated platform to support seasonal forecasting of water availability and crop yield. First we will show the general idea about the G4INDO project, the integrated platform (including Sentinel 1 & 2 data) followed by first (reforecast) results of the coupled models for predicting water availability and crop yield in the Brantas catchment in Java, Indonesia. Werner, M., Schellekens, J., Gijsbers, P., Van Dijk, M., Van den Akker, O. and Heynert K, 2013. The Delft-FEWS flow forecasting system, Environmental Modelling & Software; 40:65-77. DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.07.010.

Impact of river discharge on the California coastal ocean circulation and variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leiva, J.; Chao, Y.; Farrara, J. D.; Zhang, H.

2016-12-01

A real-time California coastal ocean nowcast and forecast system is used to quantify the impact of river discharge on the California coastal ocean circulation and variability. River discharge and freshwater runoff is monitored by an extensive network of stream gages maintained through the U.S. Geological Survey, that offers archived stream flow records as well as real-time datasets. Of all the rivers monitored by the USGS, 25 empty into the Pacific Ocean and contribute a potential source of runoff data. Monthly averages for the current water year yield discharge estimates as high as 6,000 cubic meters per second of additional freshwater input into our present model. Using Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS), we performed simulations from October 2015 to May 2016 with and without the river discharge. Results of these model simulations are compared with available observations including both in situ and satellite. Particular attention is paid to the salinity simulation. Validation is done with comparisons to sea glider data available through Oregon State University and UC San Diego, which provides depth profiles along the California coast during this time period. Additional validation is performed through comparisons with sea surface salinity measurements from the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. Continued testing for previous years, e.g. between 2011 and 2015, is being made using the Aquarius sea surface salinity data. Discharge data collected by the USGS stream gages provides a necessary source of freshwater input that must be accounted for. Incorporating a new runoff source produces a more robust model that generates improved forecasts. Following validation with available sea glider and satellite data, the enhanced model can be adapted to real-time forecasting.

A preliminary intercomparison between numerical upper wind forecasts and research aircraft measurements of jet streams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Shapiro, M. A.

1982-01-01

During the past several years, research on the structure of extra-tropical jet streams has been carried out with direct measurements with instrumented research aircraft from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). These measurements have been used to describe the wind, temperature, turbulence and chemical characteristics of jet streams. A fundamental question is one of assessing the potential value of existing operational numerical forecast models for forecasting the meteorological conditions along commercial aviation flight routes so as to execute Minimum Flight Time tracks and thus obtain the maximum efficiency in aviation fuel consumption. As an initial attempt at resolving this question, the 12 hour forecast output from two models was expressed in terms of a common output format to ease their intercomparison. The chosen models were: (1) the Fine-Mesh Spectral hemispheric and (2) the Limited Area Fine Mesh (LFM) model.

Detailed predictions of climate induced changes in the thermal and flow regimes in mountain streams of the Iberian Peninsula

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Santiago, José M.; Muñoz-Mas, Rafael; García de Jalón, Diego; Solana, Joaquín; Alonso, Carlos; Martínez-Capel, Francisco; Ribalaygua, Jaime; Pórtoles, Javier; Monjo, Robert

2016-04-01

Streamflow and temperature regimes are well-known to influence on the availability of suitable physical habitat for instream biological communities. General Circulation Models (GCMs) have predicted significant changes in timing and geographic distribution of precipitation and atmospheric temperature for the ongoing century. However, differences in these predictions may arise when focusing on different spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, to perform substantiated mitigation and management actions detailed scales are necessary to adequately forecast the consequent thermal and flow regimes. Regional predictions are relatively abundant but detailed ones, both spatially and temporally, are still scarce. The present study aimed at predicting the effects of climate change on the thermal and flow regime in the Iberian Peninsula, refining the resolution of previous studies. For this purpose, the study encompassed 28 sites at eight different mountain rivers and streams in the central part of the Iberian Peninsula (Spain). The daily flow was modelled using different daily, monthly and quarterly lags of the historical precipitation and temperature time series. These precipitation-runoff models were developed by means of M5 model trees. On the other hand water temperature was modelled at similar time scale by means of nonlinear regression from dedicated site-specific data. The developed models were used to simulate the temperature and flow regime under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCPs) climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) until the end of the present century by considering nine different GCMs, which were pertinently downscaled. The precipitation-runoff models achieved high accuracy (NSE>0.7), especially in regards of the low flows of the historical series. Results concomitantly forecasted flow reductions between 7 and 17 % (RCP4.5) and between 8 and 49% (RCP8.5) of the annual average in the most cases, being variable the magnitude and timing at each site. The largest predicted changes will occur in summer and the complete depletion of some river segments was forecasted. Winter was the only season predicted flows to remain mostly unaffected by climate change. Mean annual stream temperature was predicted to experience heavy increases, especially during the second half of the century, varying from 0.3 to 1.6°C (RCP4.5), and 0.8 to 4.0°C (RCP8.5). Annual maximum and minimum average temperature increases were predicted to be between 0.1 and 1.5°C (RCP4.5) and between 0.2 and 3.0°C (RCP8.5), and between 0.4 and 1.8°C (RCP4.5) and between 1.1 and 4.5°C (RCP8.5), respectively. The most important increases were predicted to occur in summer while winter will experience the lesser ones. Geology attributable differences on thermal regime were observed between rivers. These results suggested the exacerbation of the principal characteristics of the Mediterranean climate-induced flow regimes with increased summer water temperatures and reduced low flows. Consequently, the synergistic effects of these climate induced changes may significantly impacts instream communities. Predictions of this study will be useful for designing habitat managing strategies for climate change adaptation at the local level. The revealed particularities reinforce the convenience of refining local predictions to design effective management policies.

Land cover impacts on stream nutrients and fecal coliform in the lower Piedmont of West Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schoonover, Jon E.; Lockaby, B. Graeme

2006-12-01

SummaryAs urbanization infiltrates into rural areas, stream water quality is expected to decline as a result from increased impervious surface and greater sources for pollutants. Consequently, West Georgia's water quality is threatened by extensive development as well as other land uses such as livestock grazing and silvicultural activity. Maintenance of stream water quality, as land development occurs, is critical for the protection of drinking water and biotic integrity. A 2-phase, watershed-scale study was established to develop relationships among land cover and water quality within western Georgia. During phase 1, nutrient and fecal coliform data were collected within 18 mixed land use watersheds, ranging in size from 500 to 2500 ha. Regression models were developed that related land cover to stream water nutrient and fecal coliform concentrations. Nutrient and fecal coliform concentrations within watersheds having >24% impervious surface (IS) were often higher than those in nonurban watersheds (i.e., <5% IS) during both base flow (N: 1.64 mg/L versus 0.61 mg/L, and FC: 430 versus 120 MPN/100 ml) and storm flow (N: 1.93 mg/L versus 0.36 mg/L, and FC: 1600 versus 167 MPN/100 ml). Fecal coliform bacteria in urbanized areas consistently exceeded the US EPA's review criterion for recreational waters during both base flow and to a greater extent storm flow. During phase 2, regression models were tested based on data from six newly chosen watersheds with similar land use/cover patterns. Lastly, theoretical watersheds, based on land use percentages, were created to illustrate trends in water quality impairment as land development occurs. The models developed from this research could be used to forecast water quality changes under various land use scenarios in the developing Piedmont region of the US.

Numerical investigation of flow parameters for solid rigid spheroidal particle in a pulsatile pipe flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varghese, Joffin; Jayakumar, J. S.

2017-09-01

Quantifying, forecasting and analysing the displacement rates of suspended particles are essential while discussing about blood flow analysis. Because blood is one of the major organs in the body, which enables transport phenomena, comprising of numerous blood cells. In order to model the blood flow, a flow domain was created and numerically simulated. Flow field velocity in the stream is solved utilizing Finite Volume Method utilizing FVM unstructured solver. In pulsatile flow, the effect of parameters such as average Reynolds number, tube radius, particle size and Womersley number are taken into account. In this study spheroidal particle trajectory in axial direction is simulated at different values of pulsating frequency including 1.2 Hz, 3.33 Hz and 4.00 Hz and various densities including 1005 kg/m3 and 1025 kg/m3 for the flow domain. The analysis accomplishes the interaction study of blood constituents for different flow situations which have applications in diagnosis and treatment of cardio vascular related diseases.

Definition of perspective scheme of organization of traffic using methods of forecasting and modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vlasov, V. M.; Novikov, A. N.; Novikov, I. A.; Shevtsova, A. G.

2018-03-01

In the environment of highly developed urban agglomerations, one of the main problems arises - inability of the road network to reach a high level of motorization. The introduction of intelligent transport systems allows solving this problem, but the main issue in their implementation remains open: to what extent this or that method of improving the transport network will be effective and whether it is able to solve the problem of vehicle growth especially for the long-term period. The main goal of this work was the development of an approach to forecasting the increase in the intensity of traffic flow for a long-term period using the population and the level of motorization. The developed approach made it possible to determine the projected population and, taking into account the level of motorization, to determine the growth factor of the traffic flow intensity, which allows calculating the intensity value for a long-term period with high accuracy. The analysis of the main methods for predicting the characteristics of the transport stream is performed. The basic values and parameters necessary for their use are established. The analysis of the urban settlement is carried out and the level of motorization characteristic for the given locality is determined. A new approach to predicting the intensity of the traffic flow has been developed, which makes it possible to predict the change in the transport situation in the long term in high accuracy. Calculations of the magnitude of the intensity increase on the basis of the developed forecasting method are made and the errors in the data obtained are determined. The main recommendations on the use of the developed forecasting approach for the long-term functioning of the road network are formulated.

Operational Hydrologic Forecasts in the Columbia River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, K. Y.; Curry, J. A.; Webster, P. J.; Toma, V. E.; Jelinek, M.

2013-12-01

The Columbia River Basin (CRB) covers an area of ~670,000 km2 and stretches across parts of seven U.S. states and one Canadian province. The basin is subject to a variable climate, and moisture stored in snowpack during the winter is typically released in spring and early summer. These releases contribute to rapid increases in flow. A number of impoundments have been constructed on the Columbia River main stem and its tributaries for the purposes of flood control, navigation, irrigation, recreation, and hydropower. Storage reservoirs allow water managers to adjust natural flow patterns to benefit water and energy demands. In the past decade, the complexity of water resource management issues in the basin has amplified the importance of streamflow forecasting. Medium-range (1-10 day) numerical weather forecasts of precipitation and temperature can be used to drive hydrological models. In this work, probabilistic meteorological variables from the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) are used to force the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Soil textures were obtained from FAO data; vegetation types / land cover information from UMD land cover data; stream networks from USGS HYDRO1k; and elevations from CGIAR version 4 SRTM data. The surface energy balance in 0.25° (~25 km) cells is closed through an iterative process operating at a 6 hour timestep. Output fluxes from a number of cells in the basin are combined through one-dimensional flow routing predicated on assumptions of linearity and time invariance. These combinations lead to daily mean streamflow estimates at key locations throughout the basin. This framework is suitable for ingesting daily numerical weather prediction data, and was calibrated using USGS mean daily streamflow data at the Dalles Dam (TDA). Operational streamflow forecasts in the CRB have been active since October 2012. These are 'naturalized' or unregulated forecasts. In 2013, increases of ~2600 m3/s (~48% of average discharge for water years 1879-2012) or greater were observed at TDA during the following periods: 29 March to 12 April, 5 May to 11 May, and 19 June to 29 June. Precipitation and temperature forecasts during these periods are shown along with changes in the model simulated snowpack. We evaluate the performance of the ensemble mean 10 days in advance of each of these three events, and comment on how the distribution of ensemble members affected forecast confidence in each situation.

Montana StreamStats—A method for retrieving basin and streamflow characteristics in Montana: Chapter A in Montana StreamStats

USGS Publications Warehouse

McCarthy, Peter M.; Dutton, DeAnn M.; Sando, Steven K.; Sando, Roy

2016-04-05

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) provides streamflow characteristics and other related information needed by water-resource managers to protect people and property from floods, plan and manage water-resource activities, and protect water quality. Streamflow characteristics provided by the USGS, such as peak-flow and low-flow frequencies for streamflow-gaging stations, are frequently used by engineers, flood forecasters, land managers, biologists, and others to guide their everyday decisions. In addition to providing streamflow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations, the USGS also develops regional regression equations and drainage area-adjustment methods for estimating streamflow characteristics at locations on ungaged streams. Regional regression equations can be complex and often require users to determine several basin characteristics, which are physical and climatic characteristics of the stream and its drainage basin. Obtaining these basin characteristics for streamflow-gaging stations and ungaged sites traditionally has been time consuming and subjective, and led to inconsistent results.StreamStats is a Web-based geographic information system application that was created by the USGS to provide users with access to an assortment of analytical tools that are useful for water-resource planning and management. StreamStats allows users to easily obtain streamflow and basin characteristics for USGS streamflow-gaging stations and user-selected locations on ungaged streams. The USGS, in cooperation with Montana Department of Transportation, Montana Department of Environmental Quality, and Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation, completed a study to develop a StreamStats application for Montana, compute streamflow characteristics at streamflow-gaging stations, and develop regional regression equations to estimate streamflow characteristics at ungaged sites. Chapter A of this Scientific Investigations Report describes the Montana StreamStats application and the datasets, streamflow-gaging stations, streamflow characteristics, and regression equations (as described fully in Chapters B through G of this report) that are used for development of the StreamStats application for Montana.

Climate change poised to threaten hydrologic connectivity and endemic fishes in dryland streams

PubMed Central

Jaeger, Kristin L.; Olden, Julian D.; Pelland, Noel A.

2014-01-01

Protecting hydrologic connectivity of freshwater ecosystems is fundamental to ensuring species persistence, ecosystem integrity, and human well-being. More frequent and severe droughts associated with climate change are poised to significantly alter flow intermittence patterns and hydrologic connectivity in dryland streams of the American Southwest, with deleterious effects on highly endangered fishes. By integrating local-scale hydrologic modeling with emerging approaches in landscape ecology, we quantify fine-resolution, watershed-scale changes in habitat size, spacing, and connectance under forecasted climate change in the Verde River Basin, United States. Model simulations project annual zero-flow day frequency to increase by 27% by midcentury, with differential seasonal consequences on continuity (temporal continuity at discrete locations) and connectivity (spatial continuity within the network). A 17% increase in the frequency of stream drying events is expected throughout the network with associated increases in the duration of these events. Flowing portions of the river network will diminish between 8% and 20% in spring and early summer and become increasingly isolated by more frequent and longer stretches of dry channel fragments, thus limiting the opportunity for native fishes to access spawning habitats and seasonally available refuges. Model predictions suggest that midcentury and late century climate will reduce network-wide hydrologic connectivity for native fishes by 6–9% over the course of a year and up to 12–18% during spring spawning months. Our work quantifies climate-induced shifts in stream drying and connectivity across a large river network and demonstrates their implications for the persistence of a globally endemic fish fauna. PMID:25136090

Climate change poised to threaten hydrologic connectivity and endemic fishes in dryland streams.

PubMed

Jaeger, Kristin L; Olden, Julian D; Pelland, Noel A

2014-09-23

Protecting hydrologic connectivity of freshwater ecosystems is fundamental to ensuring species persistence, ecosystem integrity, and human well-being. More frequent and severe droughts associated with climate change are poised to significantly alter flow intermittence patterns and hydrologic connectivity in dryland streams of the American Southwest, with deleterious effects on highly endangered fishes. By integrating local-scale hydrologic modeling with emerging approaches in landscape ecology, we quantify fine-resolution, watershed-scale changes in habitat size, spacing, and connectance under forecasted climate change in the Verde River Basin, United States. Model simulations project annual zero-flow day frequency to increase by 27% by midcentury, with differential seasonal consequences on continuity (temporal continuity at discrete locations) and connectivity (spatial continuity within the network). A 17% increase in the frequency of stream drying events is expected throughout the network with associated increases in the duration of these events. Flowing portions of the river network will diminish between 8% and 20% in spring and early summer and become increasingly isolated by more frequent and longer stretches of dry channel fragments, thus limiting the opportunity for native fishes to access spawning habitats and seasonally available refuges. Model predictions suggest that midcentury and late century climate will reduce network-wide hydrologic connectivity for native fishes by 6-9% over the course of a year and up to 12-18% during spring spawning months. Our work quantifies climate-induced shifts in stream drying and connectivity across a large river network and demonstrates their implications for the persistence of a globally endemic fish fauna.

Climate science and famine early warning

USGS Publications Warehouse

Verdin, James P.; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel B.; Choularton, R.

2005-01-01

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Climate science and famine early warning.

PubMed

Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

2005-11-29

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

Climate science and famine early warning

PubMed Central

Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

2005-01-01

Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised. PMID:16433101

Transforming National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Water Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graziano, T. M.; Clark, E. P.

2016-12-01

As a significant step forward to transform NOAA's water prediction services, NOAA plans to implement a new National Water Model (NWM) Version 1.0 in August 2016. A continental scale water resources model, the NWM is an evolution of the WRF-Hydro architecture developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). It represents NOAA's first foray into high performance computing for water prediction and will expand NOAA's current water quantity forecasts, at approximately 4000 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gage sites across the country, to forecasts of flow, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, runoff, snow water equivalent and other parameters for 2.7 million stream reaches nationwide. This new guidance will be provided to NOAA's River Forecast Centers around the country and other field offices, along with guidance for evaluation and validation, and tools to visualize these data and enhance decision support. Initially, a subset if these data will be available via NOAA's Office of Water Prediction web site and the full output of the NWM simulations will be available via the NOAA Operational Model Archive and Distribution System (NOMADS). These enhancements in turn will improve NWS' ability to deliver impact-based decision support services nationwide through the provision of short through extended range, high fidelity "street level" water forecasts and warnings. Subsequent planned out-year enhancements to the NWM include the expanded assimilation of anthropogenic data, an operational nest to provide higher resolution forecasts needed for inundation mapping, and tackling the deeper challenges associated with drought and other water resources issues. The NWM is a NOAA-led interagency effort that relies on the National Hydrographic Dataset of the USGS and EPA, as well as the National Streamflow Information Program of the USGS. Its development continues to be advanced in partnership with NCAR, and a partnership with the Consortium for the Advancement of Hydrologic Sciences, Inc. (CUASHI) and the National Science Foundation. This presentation will highlight the policy, programmatic, and service transformation of NOAA's water resources mission with the NWM.

Dynamic Floodplain representation in hydrologic flood forecasting using WRF-Hydro modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangodagamage, C.; Li, Z.; Maitaria, K.; Islam, M.; Ito, T.; Dhondia, J.

2016-12-01

Floods claim more lives and damage more property than any other category of natural disaster in the Continental United States. A system that can demarcate local flood boundaries dynamically could help flood prone communities prepare for and even prevent from catastrophic flood events. Lateral distance from the centerline of the river to the right and left floodplains for the water levels coming out of the models at each grid location have not been properly integrated with the national hydrography dataset (NHDPlus). The NHDPlus dataset represents the stream network with feature classes such as rivers, tributaries, canals, lakes, ponds, dams, coastlines, and stream gages. The NHDPlus dataset consists of approximately 2.7 million river reaches defining how surface water drains to the ocean. These river reaches have upstream and downstream nodes and basic parameters such as flow direction, drainage area, reach slope etc. We modified an existing algorithm (Gangodagamage et al., 2007) to provide lateral distance from the centerline of the river to the right and left floodplains for the flows simulated by models. Previous work produced floodplain boundaries for static river stages (i.e. 3D metric: distance along the main stem, flow depth, lateral distance from river center line). Our new approach introduces the floodplain boundary for variable water levels at each reach with the fourth dimension, time. We use modeled flows from WRF-Hydro and demarcate the right and left lateral boundaries of inundation dynamically by appropriately mapping discharges into hydraulically corrected stages. Backwater effects from the mainstem to tributaries are considered and proper corrections are applied for the tributary inundations. We obtained river stages by optimizing reach level channel parameters using newly developed stream flow routing algorithm. Non uniform inundations are mapped at each NHDplus reach (upstream and downstream nodes) and spatial interpolation is carried out on a normalized digital elevation model (always streams are at zero elevations) to obtain the smooth flood boundaries between adjacent reaches. The validation of the dynamic inundation boundaries is performed using multi-temporal satellite datasets as well as HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model results for selected streams for previous flood events.

4D Floodplain representation in hydrologic flood forecasting using WRFHydro modeling framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gangodagamage, C.; Li, Z.; Adams, T.; Ito, T.; Maitaria, K.; Islam, M.; Dhondia, J.

2015-12-01

Floods claim more lives and damage more property than any other category of natural disaster in the Continental U.S. A system that can demarcate local flood boundaries dynamically could help flood prone communities prepare for and even prevent from catastrophic flood events. Lateral distance from the centerline of the river to the right and left floodplains for the water levels coming out of the models at each grid location have not been properly integrated with the national hydrography dataset (NHDPlus). The NHDPlus dataset represents the stream network with feature classes such as rivers, tributaries, canals, lakes, ponds, dams, coastlines, and stream gages. The NHDPlus dataset consists of approximately 2.7 million river reaches defining how surface water drains to the ocean. These river reaches have upstream and downstream nodes and basic parameters such as flow direction, drainage area, reach slope etc. We modified an existing algorithm (Gangodagamage et al., 2007, 2011) to provide lateral distance from the centerline of the river to the right and left floodplains for the flows simulated by models. Previous work produced floodplain boundaries for static river stages (i.e. 3D metric: distance along the main stem, flow depth, lateral distance from river center line). Our new approach introduces the floodplain boundary for variable water levels with the fourth dimension, time. We use modeled flows from WRFHydro and demarcate the right and left lateral boundaries of inundation dynamically. This approach dynamically integrates with high resolution models (e.g., hourly and ~ 1 km spatial resolution) that are developed from recent advancements in high computational power with ground based measurements (e.g., Fluxnet), lateral inundation vectors (direction and spatial extent) derived from multi-temporal remote sensing data (e.g., LiDAR, WorldView 2, Landsat, ASTER, MODIS), and improved representations of the physical processes through multi-parameterizations. Our approach enhances the normalized (streams are at zero elevations) DEM derived upstream flow routing pathways for stream reaches for given water stages as more and more satellite data become available for various flood inundations. Validation of the inundation boundaries is performed using HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model results for selected streams.

Obtaining high-resolution stage forecasts by coupling large-scale hydrologic models with sensor data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fries, K. J.; Kerkez, B.

2017-12-01

We investigate how "big" quantities of distributed sensor data can be coupled with a large-scale hydrologic model, in particular the National Water Model (NWM), to obtain hyper-resolution forecasts. The recent launch of the NWM provides a great example of how growing computational capacity is enabling a new generation of massive hydrologic models. While the NWM spans an unprecedented spatial extent, there remain many questions about how to improve forecast at the street-level, the resolution at which many stakeholders make critical decisions. Further, the NWM runs on supercomputers, so water managers who may have access to their own high-resolution measurements may not readily be able to assimilate them into the model. To that end, we ask the question: how can the advances of the large-scale NWM be coupled with new local observations to enable hyper-resolution hydrologic forecasts? A methodology is proposed whereby the flow forecasts of the NWM are directly mapped to high-resolution stream levels using Dynamical System Identification. We apply the methodology across a sensor network of 182 gages in Iowa. Of these sites, approximately one third have shown to perform well in high-resolution flood forecasting when coupled with the outputs of the NWM. The quality of these forecasts is characterized using Principal Component Analysis and Random Forests to identify where the NWM may benefit from new sources of local observations. We also discuss how this approach can help municipalities identify where they should place low-cost sensors to most benefit from flood forecasts of the NWM.

Operational aspects of asynchronous filtering for improved flood forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rakovec, Oldrich; Weerts, Albrecht; Sumihar, Julius; Uijlenhoet, Remko

2014-05-01

Hydrological forecasts can be made more reliable and less uncertain by recursively improving initial conditions. A common way of improving the initial conditions is to make use of data assimilation (DA), a feedback mechanism or update methodology which merges model estimates with available real world observations. The traditional implementation of the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF; e.g. Evensen, 2009) is synchronous, commonly named a three dimensional (3-D) assimilation, which means that all assimilated observations correspond to the time of update. Asynchronous DA, also called four dimensional (4-D) assimilation, refers to an updating methodology, in which observations being assimilated into the model originate from times different to the time of update (Evensen, 2009; Sakov 2010). This study investigates how the capabilities of the DA procedure can be improved by applying alternative Kalman-type methods, e.g., the Asynchronous Ensemble Kalman Filter (AEnKF). The AEnKF assimilates observations with smaller computational costs than the original EnKF, which is beneficial for operational purposes. The results of discharge assimilation into a grid-based hydrological model for the Upper Ourthe catchment in Belgian Ardennes show that including past predictions and observations in the AEnKF improves the model forecasts as compared to the traditional EnKF. Additionally we show that elimination of the strongly non-linear relation between the soil moisture storage and assimilated discharge observations from the model update becomes beneficial for an improved operational forecasting, which is evaluated using several validation measures. In the current study we employed the HBV-96 model built within a recently developed open source modelling environment OpenStreams (2013). The advantage of using OpenStreams (2013) is that it enables direct communication with OpenDA (2013), an open source data assimilation toolbox. OpenDA provides a number of algorithms for model calibration and assimilation and is suitable to be connected to any kind of environmental model. This setup is embedded in the Delft Flood Early Warning System (Delft-FEWS, Werner et al., 2013) for making all simulations and forecast runs and handling of all hydrological and meteorological data. References: Evensen, G. (2009), Data Assimilation: The Ensemble Kalman Filter, Springer, doi:10.1007/978-3-642-03711-5. OpenDA (2013), The OpenDA data-assimilation toolbox, www.openda.org, (last access: 1 November 2013). OpenStreams (2013), OpenStreams, www.openstreams.nl, (last access: 1 November 2013). Sakov, P., G. Evensen, and L. Bertino (2010), Asynchronous data assimilation with the EnKF, Tellus, Series A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, 62(1), 24-29, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0870.2009.00417.x. Werner, M., J. Schellekens, P. Gijsbers, M. van Dijk, O. van den Akker, and K. Heynert (2013), The Delft-FEWS flow forecasting system, Environ. Mod. & Soft., 40(0), 65-77, doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.07.010.

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuck, Peter W.; Linton, Mark; Muglach, Karin; Welsch, Brian; Hageman, Jacob

2010-01-01

The imminent launch of Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) will carry the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with I" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of 1.5 Terabytes per day from SDO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." This talk will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO /HMI.

Understanding Solar Eruptions with SDO/HMI Measuring Photospheric Flows, Testing Models, and Steps Towards Forecasting Solar Eruptions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schuck, Peter W.; Linton, M.; Muglach, K.; Hoeksema, T.

2010-01-01

The Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is carrying the first full-disk imaging vector magnetograph, the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), into an inclined geosynchronous orbit. This magnetograph will provide nearly continuous measurements of photospheric vector magnetic fields at cadences of 90 seconds to 12 minutes with 1" resolution, precise pointing, and unfettered by atmospheric seeing. The enormous data stream of 1.5 Terabytes per day from SAO will provide an unprecedented opportunity to understand the mysteries of solar eruptions. These ground-breaking observations will permit the application of a new technique, the differential affine velocity estimator for vector magnetograms (DAVE4VM), to measure photospheric plasma flows in active regions. These measurements will permit, for the first time, accurate assessments of the coronal free energy available for driving CMEs and flares. The details of photospheric plasma flows, particularly along magnetic neutral-lines, are critical to testing models for initiating coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and flares. Assimilating flows and fields into state-of-the art 3D MHD simulations that model the highly stratified solar atmosphere from the convection zone to the corona represents the next step towards achieving NASA's Living with a Star forecasting goals of predicting "when a solar eruption leading to a CME will occur." Our presentation will describe these major science and predictive advances that will be delivered by SDO/HMI.

Characterizing Macro Scale Patterns Of Uncertainty For Improved Operational Flood Forecasting Over The Conterminous United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vergara, H. J.; Kirstetter, P.; Gourley, J. J.; Flamig, Z.; Hong, Y.

2015-12-01

The macro scale patterns of simulated streamflow errors are studied in order to characterize uncertainty in a hydrologic modeling system forced with the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS; http://mrms.ou.edu) quantitative precipitation estimates for flood forecasting over the Conterminous United States (CONUS). The hydrologic model is centerpiece of the Flooded Locations And Simulated Hydrograph (FLASH; http://flash.ou.edu) real-time system. The hydrologic model is implemented at 1-km/5-min resolution to generate estimates of streamflow. Data from the CONUS-wide stream gauge network of the United States' Geological Survey (USGS) were used as a reference to evaluate the discrepancies with the hydrological model predictions. Streamflow errors were studied at the event scale with particular focus on the peak flow magnitude and timing. A total of 2,680 catchments over CONUS and 75,496 events from a 10-year period are used for the simulation diagnostic analysis. Associations between streamflow errors and geophysical factors were explored and modeled. It is found that hydro-climatic factors and radar coverage could explain significant underestimation of peak flow in regions of complex terrain. Furthermore, the statistical modeling of peak flow errors shows that other geophysical factors such as basin geomorphometry, pedology, and land cover/use could also provide explanatory information. Results from this research demonstrate the utility of uncertainty characterization in providing guidance to improve model adequacy, parameter estimates, and input quality control. Likewise, the characterization of uncertainty enables probabilistic flood forecasting that can be extended to ungauged locations.

Integration of Water Resource Models with Fayetteville Shale Decision Support and Information System

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cothren, Jackson; Thoma, Greg; DiLuzio, Mauro

2013-06-30

Significant issues can arise with the timing, location, and volume of surface water withdrawals associated with hydraulic fracturing of gas shale reservoirs as impacted watersheds may be sensitive, especially in drought years, during low flow periods, or during periods of the year when activities such as irrigation place additional demands on the surface supply of water. Significant energy production and associated water withdrawals may have a cumulative impact to watersheds over the short-term. Hence, hydraulic fracturing based on water withdrawal could potentially create shifts in the timing and magnitude of low or high flow events or change the magnitude ofmore » river flow at daily, monthly, seasonal, or yearly time scales. These changes in flow regimes can result in dramatically altered river systems. Currently little is known about the impact of fracturing on stream flow behavior. Within this context the objective of this study is to assess the impact of the hydraulic fracturing on the water balance of the Fayetteville Shale play area and examine the potential impacts of hydraulic fracturing on river flow regime at subbasin scale. This project addressed that need with four unique but integrated research and development efforts: 1) Evaluate the predictive reliability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model based at a variety of scales (Task/Section 3.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to simulate the across-scale water balance and the respective impact of hydraulic fracturing. A second hypothetical scenario was designed to assess the current and future impacts of water withdrawals for hydraulic fracturing on the flow regime and on the environmental flow components (EFCs) of the river. The shifting of these components, which present critical elements to water supply and water quality, could influence the ecological dynamics of river systems. For this purpose, we combined the use of SWAT model and Richter et al.’s (1996) methodology to assess the shifting and alteration of the flow regime within the river and streams of the study area. 2) Evaluate the effect of measurable land use changes related to gas development (well-pad placement, access road completion, etc.) on surface water flow in the region (Task/Section 3.7). Results showed that since the upsurge in shale-gas related activities in the Fayetteville Shale Play (between 2006 and 2010), shale-gas related infrastructure in the region have increase by 78%. This change in land-cover in comparison with other land-cover classes such as forest, urban, pasture, agricultural and water indicates the highest rate of change in any land-cover category for the study period. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) flow model of the Little Red River watershed simulated from 2000 to 2009 showed a 10% increase in storm water runoff. A forecast scenario based on the assumption that 2010 land-cover does not see any significant change over the forecast period (2010 to 2020) also showed a 10% increase in storm water runoff. Further analyses showed that this change in the stream-flow regime for the forecast period is attributable to the increase in land-cover as introduced by the shale-gas infrastructure. 3) Upgrade the Fayetteville Shale Information System to include information on watershed status. (Tasks/Sections 2.1 and 2.2). This development occurred early in the project period, and technological improvements in web-map API’s have made it possible to further improve the map. The current sites (http://lingo.cast.uark.edu) is available but is currently being upgraded to a more modern interface and robust mapping engine using funds outside this project. 4) Incorporate the methodologies developed in Tasks/Sections 3.5 and 3.7 into a Spatial Decision Support System for use by regulatory agencies and producers in the play. The resulting system is available at http://fayshale.cast.uark.edu and is under review the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission.« less

Wind-Driven Ecological Flow Regimes Downstream from Hydropower Dams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kern, J.; Characklis, G. W.

2012-12-01

Conventional hydropower can be turned on and off quicker and less expensively than thermal generation (coal, nuclear, or natural gas). These advantages enable hydropower utilities to respond to rapid fluctuations in energy supply and demand. More recently, a growing renewable energy sector has underlined the need for flexible generation capacity that can complement intermittent renewable resources such as wind power. While wind power entails lower variable costs than other types of generation, incorporating it into electric power systems can be problematic. Due to variable and unpredictable wind speeds, wind power is difficult to schedule and must be used when available. As a result, integrating large amounts of wind power into the grid may result in atypical, swiftly changing demand patterns for other forms of generation, placing a premium on sources that can be rapidly ramped up and down. Moreover, uncertainty in wind power forecasts will stipulate increased levels of 'reserve' generation capacity that can respond quickly if real-time wind supply is less than expected. These changes could create new hourly price dynamics for energy and reserves, altering the short-term financial signals that hydroelectric dam operators use to schedule water releases. Traditionally, hourly stream flow patterns below hydropower dams have corresponded in a very predictable manner to electricity demand, whose primary factors are weather (hourly temperature) and economic activity (workday hours). Wind power integration has the potential to yield more variable, less predictable flows at hydro dams, flows that at times could resemble reciprocal wind patterns. An existing body of research explores the impacts of standard, demand-following hydroelectric dams on downstream ecological flows; but weighing the benefits of increased reliance on wind power against further impacts to ecological flows may be a novel challenge for the environmental community. As a preliminary step in meeting this challenge, the following study was designed to investigate the potential for wind power integration to alter riparian flow regimes below hydroelectric dams. A hydrological model of a three-dam cascade in the Roanoke River basin (Virginia, USA) is interfaced with a simulated electricity market (i.e. a unit commitment problem) representing the Dominion Zone of PJM Interconnection. Incorporating forecasts of electricity demand, hydro capacity and wind availability, a mixed-integer optimization program minimizes the system cost of meeting hourly demand and reserve requirements by means of a diverse generation portfolio (e.g. nuclear, fossil, hydro, and biomass). A secondary 'balancing' energy market is executed if real-time wind generation is less than the day-ahead forecast, calling upon reserved generation resources to meet the supply shortfall. Hydropower release schedules are determined across a range of wind development scenarios (varying wind's fraction of total installed generating capacity, as well as its geographical source region). Flow regimes for each wind development scenario are compared against both historical and simulated flows under current operations (negligible wind power), as well as simulated natural flows (dam removal), in terms of ecologically relevant flow metrics. Results quantify the ability of wind power development to alter within-week stream flows downstream from hydropower dams.

Comparison of Machine Learning methods for incipient motion in gravel bed rivers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Valyrakis, Manousos

2013-04-01

Soil erosion and sediment transport of natural gravel bed streams are important processes which affect both the morphology as well as the ecology of earth's surface. For gravel bed rivers at near incipient flow conditions, particle entrainment dynamics are highly intermittent. This contribution reviews the use of modern Machine Learning (ML) methods implemented for short term prediction of entrainment instances of individual grains exposed in fully developed near boundary turbulent flows. Results obtained by network architectures of variable complexity based on two different ML methods namely the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) are compared in terms of different error and performance indices, computational efficiency and complexity as well as predictive accuracy and forecast ability. Different model architectures are trained and tested with experimental time series obtained from mobile particle flume experiments. The experimental setup consists of a Laser Doppler Velocimeter (LDV) and a laser optics system, which acquire data for the instantaneous flow and particle response respectively, synchronously. The first is used to record the flow velocity components directly upstream of the test particle, while the later tracks the particle's displacements. The lengthy experimental data sets (millions of data points) are split into the training and validation subsets used to perform the corresponding learning and testing of the models. It is demonstrated that the ANFIS hybrid model, which is based on neural learning and fuzzy inference principles, better predicts the critical flow conditions above which sediment transport is initiated. In addition, it is illustrated that empirical knowledge can be extracted, validating the theoretical assumption that particle ejections occur due to energetic turbulent flow events. Such a tool may find application in management and regulation of stream flows downstream of dams for stream restoration, implementation of sustainable practices in river and estuarine ecosystems and design of stable river bed and banks.

Precipitation forecasts for rainfall runoff predictions. A case study in poorly gauged Ribb and Gumara catchments, upper Blue Nile, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seyoum, Mesgana; van Andel, Schalk Jan; Xuan, Yunqing; Amare, Kibreab

Flow forecasting in poorly gauged, flood-prone Ribb and Gumara sub-catchments of the Blue Nile was studied with the aim of testing the performance of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPFs). Four types of QPFs namely MM5 forecasts with a spatial resolution of 2 km; the Maximum, Mean and Minimum members (MaxEPS, MeanEPS and MinEPS where EPS stands for Ensemble Prediction System) of the fixed, low resolution (2.5 by 2.5 degrees) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Forecast System (NOAA GFS) ensemble forecasts were used. Both the MM5 and the EPS were not calibrated (bias correction, downscaling (for EPS), etc.). In addition, zero forecasts assuming no rainfall in the coming days, and monthly average forecasts assuming average monthly rainfall in the coming days, were used. These rainfall forecasts were then used to drive the Hydrologic Engineering Center’s-Hydrologic Modeling System, HEC-HMS, hydrologic model for flow predictions. The results show that flow predictions using MaxEPS and MM5 precipitation forecasts over-predicted the peak flow for most of the seven events analyzed, whereas under-predicted peak flow was found using zero- and monthly average rainfall. The comparison of observed and predicted flow hydrographs shows that MM5, MaxEPS and MeanEPS precipitation forecasts were able to capture the rainfall signal that caused peak flows. Flow predictions based on MaxEPS and MeanEPS gave results that were quantitatively close to the observed flow for most events, whereas flow predictions based on MM5 resulted in large overestimations for some events. In follow-up research for this particular case study, calibration of the MM5 model will be performed. The overall analysis shows that freely available atmospheric forecasting products can provide additional information on upcoming rainfall and peak flow events in areas where only base-line forecasts such as no-rainfall or climatology are available.

A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bell, Victoria A.; Davies, Helen N.; Kay, Alison L.; Brookshaw, Anca; Scaife, Adam A.

2017-09-01

Skilful winter seasonal predictions for the North Atlantic circulation and northern Europe have now been demonstrated and the potential for seasonal hydrological forecasting in the UK is now being explored. One of the techniques being used combines seasonal rainfall forecasts provided by operational weather forecast systems with hydrological modelling tools to provide estimates of seasonal mean river flows up to a few months ahead. The work presented here shows how spatial information contained in a distributed hydrological model typically requiring high-resolution (daily or better) rainfall data can be used to provide an initial condition for a much simpler forecast model tailored to use low-resolution monthly rainfall forecasts. Rainfall forecasts (hindcasts) from the GloSea5 model (1996 to 2009) are used to provide the first assessment of skill in these national-scale flow forecasts. The skill in the combined modelling system is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and compared to what might be achieved using other approaches such as use of an ensemble of historical rainfall in a hydrological model, or a simple flow persistence forecast. The analysis indicates that only limited forecast skill is achievable for Spring and Summer seasonal hydrological forecasts; however, Autumn and Winter flows can be reasonably well forecast using (ensemble mean) rainfall forecasts based on either GloSea5 forecasts or historical rainfall (the preferred type of forecast depends on the region). Flow forecasts using ensemble mean GloSea5 rainfall perform most consistently well across Britain, and provide the most skilful forecasts overall at the 3-month lead time. Much of the skill (64 %) in the 1-month ahead seasonal flow forecasts can be attributed to the hydrological initial condition (particularly in regions with a significant groundwater contribution to flows), whereas for the 3-month ahead lead time, GloSea5 forecasts account for ˜ 70 % of the forecast skill (mostly in areas of high rainfall to the north and west) and only 30 % of the skill arises from hydrological memory (typically groundwater-dominated areas). Given the high spatial heterogeneity in typical patterns of UK rainfall and evaporation, future development of skilful spatially distributed seasonal forecasts could lead to substantial improvements in seasonal flow forecast capability, potentially benefitting practitioners interested in predicting hydrological extremes, not only in the UK but also across Europe.

Forecasting waste compositions: A case study on plastic waste of electronic display housings.

PubMed

Peeters, Jef R; Vanegas, Paul; Kellens, Karel; Wang, Feng; Huisman, Jaco; Dewulf, Wim; Duflou, Joost R

2015-12-01

Because of the rapid succession of technological developments, the architecture and material composition of many products used in daily life have drastically changed over the last decades. As a result, well-adjusted recycling technologies need to be developed and installed to cope with these evolutions. This is essential to guarantee continued access to materials and to reduce the ecological impact of our material consumption. However, limited information is currently available on the material composition of arising waste streams and even less on how these waste streams will evolve. Therefore, this paper presents a methodology to forecast trends in the material composition of waste streams. To demonstrate the applicability and value of the proposed methodology, it is applied to forecast the evolution of plastic housing waste from flat panel display (FPD) TVs, FPD monitors, cathode ray tube (CRT) TVs and CRT monitors. The results of the presented forecasts indicate that a wide variety of plastic types and additives, such as flame retardants, are found in housings of similar products. The presented case study demonstrates that the proposed methodology allows the identification of trends in the evolution of the material composition of waste streams. In addition, it is demonstrated that the recycling sector will need to adapt its processes to deal with the increasing complexity of plastics of end-of-life electronic displays while respecting relevant directives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Water survey of Canada: Application for use of ERTS-A for retransmission of water resources data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Halliday, R. A. (Principal Investigator)

1973-01-01

The author has identified the following significant results. Nine sites in isolated regions in Canada have been selected for installation of ERTS data collection platforms. Seven platforms were installed in 1972, one of which did not operate. The six operating platforms transmitted over 7000 water level readings from stream gauging stations. This data is available on a near real time basis through the Canada Center for Remote Sensing and is used for river flow forecasting. The practicability of using satellite retransmission as a means of obtaining data from remote areas has been demonstrated.

User's guide for a general purpose dam-break flood simulation model (K-634)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Land, Larry F.

1981-01-01

An existing computer program for simulating dam-break floods for forecast purposes has been modified with an emphasis on general purpose applications. The original model was formulated, developed and documented by the National Weather Service. This model is based on the complete flow equations and uses a nonlinear implicit finite-difference numerical method. The first phase of the simulation routes a flood wave through the reservoir and computes an outflow hydrograph which is the sum of the flow through the dam 's structures and the gradually developing breach. The second phase routes this outflow hydrograph through the stream which may be nonprismatic and have segments with subcritical or supercritical flow. The results are discharge and stage hydrographs at the dam as well as all of the computational nodes in the channel. From these hydrographs, peak discharge and stage profiles are tabulated. (USGS)

Experiment evaluates ocean models and data assimiliation in the Gulf Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willems, Robert C.; Glenn, S. M.; Crowley, M. F.; Malanotte-Rizzoli, P.; Young, R. E.; Ezer, T.; Mellor, G. L.; Arango, H. G.; Robinson, A. R.; Lai, C.-C. A.

Using data sets of known quality as the basis for comparison, a recent experiment explored the Gulf Stream Region at 27°-47°N and 80°-50°W to assess the nowcast/forecast capability of specific ocean models and the impact of data assimilation. Scientists from five universities and the Naval Research Laboratory/Stennis Space Center participated in the Data Assimilation and Model Evaluation Experiment (DAMEÉ-GSR).DAMEÉ-GSR was based on case studies, each successively more complex, and was divided into three phases using case studies (data) from 1987 and 1988. Phase I evaluated models' forecast capability using common initial conditions and comparing model forecast fields with observational data at forecast time over a 2-week period. Phase II added data assimilation and assessed its impact on forecast capability, using the same case studies as in phase I, and phase III added a 2-month case study overlapping some periods in Phases I and II.

The Use of Pre-Storm Boundary-Layer Baroclinicity in Determining and Operationally Implementing the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cione, Joseph; Pietrafes, Leonard J.

The lateral motion of the Gulf Stream off the eastern seaboard of the United States during the winter season can act to dramatically enhance the low-level baroclinicity within the coastal zone during periods of offshore cold advection. The ralative close proximity of the Gulf Stream current off the mid-Atlantic coast can result in the rapid and intense destabilization of the marine atmospheric boundary layer directly above and shoreward of the Gulf Stream within this region. This airmass modification period often precedes either wintertime coastal cyclogenesis or the cyclonic re-development of existing mid-latitude cyclones. A climatological study investigating the relationship between the severity of the pre-storm, cold advection period and subsequent cyclogenic intensification was undertaken by Cione et al. in 1993. Findings from this study illustrate that the thermal structure of the continental airmass as well as the position of the Gulf Stream front relative to land during the pre-storm period (i.e., 24-48 h prior to the initial cyclonic intensification) are linked to the observed rate of surface cyclonic deepening for storms that either advected into or initially developed within the Carolina-southeast Virginia offshore coastal zone. It is a major objective of this research to test the potential operational utility of this pre-storm low level baroclinic linkage to subsequent cyclogenesis in an actual National Weather Service (NWS) coastal winter storm forecast setting.The ability to produce coastal surface cyclone intensity forecasts recently became available to North Carolina State University researchers and NWS forecasters. This statistical forecast guidance utilizes regression relationships derived from a nine-season (January 1982-April 1990), 116-storm study conducted previously. During the period between February 1994 and February 1996, the Atlantic Surface Cyclone Intensification Index (ASCII) was successfully implemented in an operational setting by the NWS at the Raleigh-Durham (RAH) forecast office for 10 winter storms. Analysis of these ASCII forecasts will be presented.

Dynamic rating curve assessment in hydrometric stations and calculation of the associated uncertainties : Quality and monitoring indicators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morlot, Thomas; Perret, Christian; Favre, Anne-Catherine

2013-04-01

Whether we talk about safety reasons, energy production or regulation, water resources management is one of EDF's (French hydropower company) main concerns. To meet these needs, since the fifties EDF-DTG operates a hydrometric network that includes more than 350 hydrometric stations. The data collected allow real time monitoring of rivers (hydro meteorological forecasts at points of interests), as well as hydrological studies and the sizing of structures. Ensuring the quality of stream flow data is a priority. A rating curve is an indirect method of estimating the discharge in rivers based on water level measurements. The value of discharge obtained thanks to the rating curve is not entirely accurate due to the constant changes of the river bed morphology, to the precision of the gaugings (direct and punctual discharge measurements) and to the quality of the tracing. As time goes on, the uncertainty of the estimated discharge from a rating curve « gets older » and increases: therefore the final level of uncertainty remains particularly difficult to assess. Moreover, the current EDF capacity to produce a rating curve is not suited to the frequency of change of the stage-discharge relationship. The actual method does not take into consideration the variation of the flow conditions and the modifications of the river bed which occur due to natural processes such as erosion, sedimentation and seasonal vegetation growth. In order to get the most accurate stream flow data and to improve their reliability, this study undertakes an original « dynamic» method to compute rating curves based on historical gaugings from a hydrometric station. A curve is computed for each new gauging and a model of uncertainty is adjusted for each of them. The model of uncertainty takes into account the inaccuracies in the measurement of the water height, the quality of the tracing, the uncertainty of the gaugings and the aging of the confidence intervals calculated with a variographic analysis. These rating curves enable to provide values of stream flow taking into account the variability of flow conditions, while providing a model of uncertainties resulting from the aging of the rating curves. By taking into account the variability of the flow conditions and the life of the hydrometric station, this original dynamic method can answer important questions in the field of hydrometry such as « How many gaugings a year have to be made so as to produce stream flow data with an average uncertainty of X% ? » and « When and in which range of water flow do we have to realize those gaugings ? ». KEY WORDS : Uncertainty, Rating curve, Hydrometric station, Gauging, Variogram, Stream Flow

Fusing enhanced radar precipitation, in-situ hydrometeorological measurements and airborne LIDAR snowpack estimates in a hyper-resolution hydrologic model to improve seasonal water supply forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gochis, D. J.; Busto, J.; Howard, K.; Mickey, J.; Deems, J. S.; Painter, T. H.; Richardson, M.; Dugger, A. L.; Karsten, L. R.; Tang, L.

2015-12-01

Scarcity of spatially- and temporally-continuous observations of precipitation and snowpack conditions in remote mountain watersheds results in fundamental limitations in water supply forecasting. These limitationsin observational capabilities can result in strong biases in total snowmelt-driven runoff amount, the elevational distribution of runoff, river basin tributary contributions to total basin runoff and, equally important for water management, the timing of runoff. The Upper Rio Grande River basin in Colorado and New Mexico is one basin where observational deficiencies are hypothesized to have significant adverse impacts on estimates of snowpack melt-out rates and on water supply forecasts. We present findings from a coordinated observational-modeling study within Upper Rio Grande River basin whose aim was to quanitfy the impact enhanced precipitation, meteorological and snowpack measurements on the simulation and prediction of snowmelt driven streamflow. The Rio Grande SNOwpack and streamFLOW (RIO-SNO-FLOW) Prediction Project conducted enhanced observing activities during the 2014-2015 water year. Measurements from a gap-filling, polarimetric radar (NOXP) and in-situ meteorological and snowpack measurement stations were assimilated into the WRF-Hydro modeling framework to provide continuous analyses of snowpack and streamflow conditions. Airborne lidar estimates of snowpack conditions from the NASA Airborne Snow Observatory during mid-April and mid-May were used as additional independent validations against the various model simulations and forecasts of snowpack conditions during the melt-out season. Uncalibrated WRF-Hydro model performance from simulations and forecasts driven by enhanced observational analyses were compared against results driven by currently operational data inputs. Precipitation estimates from the NOXP research radar validate significantly better against independent in situ observations of precipitation and snow-pack increases. Correcting the operational NLDAS2 forcing data with the experimental observations led to significant improvements in the seasonal accumulation and ablation of mountain snowpack and ultimately led to marked improvement in model simulated streamflow as compared with streamflow observations.

Forecasting the short-term passenger flow on high-speed railway with neural networks.

PubMed

Xie, Mei-Quan; Li, Xia-Miao; Zhou, Wen-Liang; Fu, Yan-Bing

2014-01-01

Short-term passenger flow forecasting is an important component of transportation systems. The forecasting result can be applied to support transportation system operation and management such as operation planning and revenue management. In this paper, a divide-and-conquer method based on neural network and origin-destination (OD) matrix estimation is developed to forecast the short-term passenger flow in high-speed railway system. There are three steps in the forecasting method. Firstly, the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station are obtained from historical passenger flow data, which are OD matrices in this paper. Secondly, short-term passenger flow forecasting of the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station based on neural network is realized. At last, the OD matrices in short-term time are obtained with an OD matrix estimation method. The experimental results indicate that the proposed divide-and-conquer method performs well in forecasting the short-term passenger flow on high-speed railway.

Accounting for groundwater in stream fish thermal habitat responses to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Snyder, Craig D.; Hitt, Nathaniel P.; Young, John A.

2015-01-01

Forecasting climate change effects on aquatic fauna and their habitat requires an understanding of how water temperature responds to changing air temperature (i.e., thermal sensitivity). Previous efforts to forecast climate effects on brook trout habitat have generally assumed uniform air-water temperature relationships over large areas that cannot account for groundwater inputs and other processes that operate at finer spatial scales. We developed regression models that accounted for groundwater influences on thermal sensitivity from measured air-water temperature relationships within forested watersheds in eastern North America (Shenandoah National Park, USA, 78 sites in 9 watersheds). We used these reach-scale models to forecast climate change effects on stream temperature and brook trout thermal habitat, and compared our results to previous forecasts based upon large-scale models. Observed stream temperatures were generally less sensitive to air temperature than previously assumed, and we attribute this to the moderating effect of shallow groundwater inputs. Predicted groundwater temperatures from air-water regression models corresponded well to observed groundwater temperatures elsewhere in the study area. Predictions of brook trout future habitat loss derived from our fine-grained models were far less pessimistic than those from prior models developed at coarser spatial resolutions. However, our models also revealed spatial variation in thermal sensitivity within and among catchments resulting in a patchy distribution of thermally suitable habitat. Habitat fragmentation due to thermal barriers therefore may have an increasingly important role for trout population viability in headwater streams. Our results demonstrate that simple adjustments to air-water temperature regression models can provide a powerful and cost-effective approach for predicting future stream temperatures while accounting for effects of groundwater.

48 CFR 232.072-3 - Cash flow forecasts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... 48 Federal Acquisition Regulations System 3 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Cash flow forecasts. 232..., DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE GENERAL CONTRACTING REQUIREMENTS CONTRACT FINANCING 232.072-3 Cash flow forecasts. (a) A contractor must be able to sustain a sufficient cash flow to perform the contract. When there is...

The use of real-time off-site observations as a methodology for increasing forecast skill in prediction of large wind power ramps one or more hours ahead of their impact on a wind plant.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Martin Wilde, Principal Investigator

2012-12-31

ABSTRACT Application of Real-Time Offsite Measurements in Improved Short-Term Wind Ramp Prediction Skill Improved forecasting performance immediately preceding wind ramp events is of preeminent concern to most wind energy companies, system operators, and balancing authorities. The value of near real-time hub height-level wind data and more general meteorological measurements to short-term wind power forecasting is well understood. For some sites, access to onsite measured wind data - even historical - can reduce forecast error in the short-range to medium-range horizons by as much as 50%. Unfortunately, valuable free-stream wind measurements at tall tower are not typically available at most windmore » plants, thereby forcing wind forecasters to rely upon wind measurements below hub height and/or turbine nacelle anemometry. Free-stream measurements can be appropriately scaled to hub-height levels, using existing empirically-derived relationships that account for surface roughness and turbulence. But there is large uncertainty in these relationships for a given time of day and state of the boundary layer. Alternatively, forecasts can rely entirely on turbine anemometry measurements, though such measurements are themselves subject to wake effects that are not stationary. The void in free-stream hub-height level measurements of wind can be filled by remote sensing (e.g., sodar, lidar, and radar). However, the expense of such equipment may not be sustainable. There is a growing market for traditional anemometry on tall tower networks, maintained by third parties to the forecasting process (i.e., independent of forecasters and the forecast users). This study examines the value of offsite tall-tower data from the WINDataNOW Technology network for short-horizon wind power predictions at a wind farm in northern Montana. The presentation shall describe successful physical and statistical techniques for its application and the practicality of its application in an operational setting. It shall be demonstrated that when used properly, the real-time offsite measurements materially improve wind ramp capture and prediction statistics, when compared to traditional wind forecasting techniques and to a simple persistence model.« less

Stream Flow Prediction and Flood Mapping in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya with the ICIMOD Water Resources App Portal (IWRAP)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, J.; Ames, D. P.; Jones, N.; Souffront, M.

2016-12-01

Earth observations of precipitation, temperature, moisture, and other atmospheric and land surface conditions form the foundation of global hydrologic forecasts that are increasingly available in native as well as other derived products. The European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) have developed such products for global flood awareness which can be downscaled to smaller regions and used for stream flow prediction in underserved areas such as the Hindu Kush-Himalaya. Combined with digital elevation data, now available at 30 meters through the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) reconnaissance-level flood maps can be generated across wide regions that would otherwise not be possible and where increased information to drive higher resolution models are available the same forecasts can be used to provide forcing inflows for improved flood maps. Advances in cloud computing offer a unique opportunity to facilitate deployment of water resources models as decision-making tools in the cloud-based ICIMOD Water Resources App Portal or IWRAP. The interactive nature of web apps makes this an excellent medium for creating decision support tools that harness cutting edge modeling techniques. Thin client apps hosted in a cloud portal eliminates the need for the decision makers to procure and maintain the high performance hardware required by the models, deal with issues related to software installation and platform incompatibilities, or monitor and install software updates, a problem that is exacerbated in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya where both financial and technical capacity are limited. All that is needed to use the system is an Internet connection and a web browser. We will take advantage of these technologies to develop tools which can be centrally maintained but openly accessible. Advanced mapping and visualization will make results intuitive and information derived actionable. We will also take advantage of the emerging standards for sharing water information across the web using the OGC and WMO approved WaterML standards. This will make our tools interoperable and we will help train those we work with so that tools and data from other projects can both consume and share with the tools developed in our project.

The interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and a non-native predators on stream-rearing salmon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lawrence, David J.; Stewart-Koster, Ben; Olden, Julian D.; Ruesch, Aaron S.; Torgersen, Christian E.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Butcher, Don P.; Crown, Julia K.

2014-01-01

Predicting how climate change is likely to interact with myriad other stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory non-native smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and non-native species on stream-rearing salmon, and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin; we compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing Chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, end-of-century warming may cause near total loss of Chinook salmon rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing Chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (2-4-fold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of Chinook salmon from the more altered stream, and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater predation risk by non-native species.

The interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and a nonnative predator on stream-rearing salmon.

PubMed

Lawrence, David J; Stewart-Koster, Ben; Olden, Julian D; Ruesch, Aaron S; Torgersen, Christian E; Lawler, Joshua J; Butcher, Don P; Crown, Julia K

2014-06-01

Predicting how climate change is likely to interact with myriad other stressors that threaten species of conservation concern is an essential challenge in aquatic ecosystems. This study provides a framework to accomplish this task in salmon-bearing streams of the northwestern United States, where land-use-related reductions in riparian shading have caused changes in stream thermal regimes, and additional warming from projected climate change may result in significant losses of coldwater fish habitat over the next century. Predatory, nonnative smallmouth bass have also been introduced into many northwestern streams, and their range is likely to expand as streams warm, presenting an additional challenge to the persistence of threatened Pacific salmon. The goal of this work was to forecast the interactive effects of climate change, riparian management, and nonnative species on stream-rearing salmon and to evaluate the capacity of restoration to mitigate these effects. We intersected downscaled global climate forecasts with a local-scale water temperature model to predict mid- and end-of-century temperatures in streams in the Columbia River basin. We compared one stream that is thermally impaired due to the loss of riparian vegetation and another that is cooler and has a largely intact riparian corridor. Using the forecasted stream temperatures in conjunction with fish-habitat models, we predicted how stream-rearing chinook salmon and bass distributions would change as each stream warmed. In the highly modified stream, end-of-century warming may cause near total loss of chinook salmon-rearing habitat and a complete invasion of the upper watershed by bass. In the less modified stream, bass were thermally restricted from the upstream-most areas. In both systems, temperature increases resulted in higher predicted spatial overlap between stream-rearing chinook salmon and potentially predatory bass in the early summer (two- to fourfold increase) and greater abundance of bass. We found that riparian restoration could prevent the extirpation of chinook salmon from the more altered stream and could also restrict bass from occupying the upper 31 km of salmon-rearing habitat. The proposed methodology and model predictions are critical for prioritizing climate-change adaptation strategies before salmonids are exposed to both warmer water and greater predation risk by nonnative species.

Forecasting the Short-Term Passenger Flow on High-Speed Railway with Neural Networks

PubMed Central

Xie, Mei-Quan; Li, Xia-Miao; Zhou, Wen-Liang; Fu, Yan-Bing

2014-01-01

Short-term passenger flow forecasting is an important component of transportation systems. The forecasting result can be applied to support transportation system operation and management such as operation planning and revenue management. In this paper, a divide-and-conquer method based on neural network and origin-destination (OD) matrix estimation is developed to forecast the short-term passenger flow in high-speed railway system. There are three steps in the forecasting method. Firstly, the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station are obtained from historical passenger flow data, which are OD matrices in this paper. Secondly, short-term passenger flow forecasting of the numbers of passengers who arrive at each station or depart from each station based on neural network is realized. At last, the OD matrices in short-term time are obtained with an OD matrix estimation method. The experimental results indicate that the proposed divide-and-conquer method performs well in forecasting the short-term passenger flow on high-speed railway. PMID:25544838

Effects of Forecasted Climate Change on Stream Temperatures in the Nooksack River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Truitt, S. E.; Mitchell, R. J.; Yearsley, J. R.; Grah, O. J.

2017-12-01

The Nooksack River in northwest Washington State provides valuable habitat for endangered salmon species, as such it is critical to understand how stream temperatures will be affected by forecasted climate change. The Middle and North Forks basins of the Nooksack are high-relief and glaciated, whereas the South Fork is a lower relief rain and snow dominated basin. Due to a moderate Pacific maritime climate, snowpack in the basins is sensitive to temperature increases. Previous modeling studies in the upper Nooksack basins indicate a reduction in snowpack and spring runoff, and a recession of glaciers into the 21st century. How stream temperatures will respond to these changes is unknown. We use the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM) coupled with a glacier dynamics model and the River Basin Model (RBM) to simulate hydrology and stream temperature from present to the year 2100. We calibrate the DHSVM and RBM to the three forks in the upper 1550 km2 of the Nooksack basin, which contain an estimated 3400 hectares of glacial ice. We employ observed stream-temperature data collected over the past decade and hydrologic data from the four USGS streamflow monitoring sites within the basin and observed gridded climate data developed by Linveh et al. (2013). Field work was conducted in the summer of 2016 to determine stream morphology, discharge, and stream temperatures at a number of stream segments for the RBM calibration. We simulate forecast climate change impacts, using gridded daily downscaled data from global climate models of the CMIP5 with RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 forcing scenarios developed using the multivariate adaptive constructed analogs method (MACA; Abatzoglou and Brown, 2011). Simulation results project a trending increase in stream temperature as a result of lower snowmelt and higher air temperatures into the 21st century, especially in the lower relief, unglaciated South Fork basin.

Statistical Modeling of Daily Stream Temperature for Mitigating Fish Mortality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caldwell, R. J.; Rajagopalan, B.

2011-12-01

Water allocations in the Central Valley Project (CVP) of California require the consideration of short- and long-term needs of many socioeconomic factors including, but not limited to, agriculture, urban use, flood mitigation/control, and environmental concerns. The Endangered Species Act (ESA) ensures that the decision-making process provides sufficient water to limit the impact on protected species, such as salmon, in the Sacramento River Valley. Current decision support tools in the CVP were deemed inadequate by the National Marine Fisheries Service due to the limited temporal resolution of forecasts for monthly stream temperature and fish mortality. Finer scale temporal resolution is necessary to account for the stream temperature variations critical to salmon survival and reproduction. In addition, complementary, long-range tools are needed for monthly and seasonal management of water resources. We will present a Generalized Linear Model (GLM) framework of maximum daily stream temperatures and related attributes, such as: daily stream temperature range, exceedance/non-exceedance of critical threshold temperatures, and the number of hours of exceedance. A suite of predictors that impact stream temperatures are included in the models, including current and prior day values of streamflow, water temperatures of upstream releases from Shasta Dam, air temperature, and precipitation. Monthly models are developed for each stream temperature attribute at the Balls Ferry gauge, an EPA compliance point for meeting temperature criteria. The statistical framework is also coupled with seasonal climate forecasts using a stochastic weather generator to provide ensembles of stream temperature scenarios that can be used for seasonal scale water allocation planning and decisions. Short-term weather forecasts can also be used in the framework to provide near-term scenarios useful for making water release decisions on a daily basis. The framework can be easily translated to other locations and is intended to be a complement to the physical stream temperature modeling efforts that are underway on the river.

Evaluation of an operational water cycle prediction system for the Laurentian Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fortin, Vincent; Durnford, Dorothy; Smith, Gregory; Dyck, Sarah; Martinez, Yosvany; Mackay, Murray; Winter, Barbara

2017-04-01

Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) is implementing new numerical guidance products based on fully coupled numerical models to better inform the public as well as specialized users on the current and future state of various components of the water cycle, including stream flow and water levels. Outputs from this new system, named the Water Cycle Prediction System (WCPS), have been available for the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River watershed since June 2016. WCPS links together ECCC's weather forecasting model, GEM, the 2-D ice model C-ICE, the 3-D lake and ocean model NEMO, and a 2-D hydrological model, WATROUTE. Information concerning the water cycle is passed between the models at intervals varying from a few minutes to one hour. It currently produces two forecasts per day for the next three days of the complete water cycle in the Great Lakes region, the largest freshwater lake system in the world. Products include spatially-varying precipitation, evaporation, river discharge, water level anomalies, surface water temperatures, ice coverage, and surface currents. These new products are of interest to water resources and management authority, flood forecasters, hydroelectricity producers, navigation, environmental disaster managers, search and rescue teams, agriculture, and the general public. This presentation focuses on the evaluation of various elements forecasted by the system, and weighs the advantages and disadvantages of running the system fully coupled.

International Virtual Observatory System for Water Resources Information

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leinenweber, Lewis; Bermudez, Luis

2013-04-01

Sharing, accessing, and integrating hydrologic and climatic data have been identified as a critical need for some time. The current state of data portals, standards, technologies, activities, and expertise can be leverage to develop an initial operational capability for a virtual observatory system. This system will allow to link observations data with stream networks and models, and to solve semantic inconsistencies among communities. Prototyping a virtual observatory system is an inter-disciplinary, inter-agency and international endeavor. The Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) within the OGC Interoperability Program provides the process and expertise to run such collaborative effort. The OGC serves as a global forum for the collaboration of developers and users of spatial data products and services, and to advance the development of international standards for geospatial interoperability. The project coordinated by OGC that is advancing an international virtual observatory system for water resources information is called Climatology-Hydrology Information Sharing Pilot, Phase 1 (CHISP-1). It includes observations and forecasts in the U.S. and Canada levering current networks and capabilities. It is designed to support the following use cases: 1) Hydrologic modeling for historical and near-future stream flow and groundwater conditions. Requires the integration of trans-boundary stream flow and groundwater well data, as well as national river networks (US NHD and Canada NHN) from multiple agencies. Emphasis will be on time series data and real-time flood monitoring. 2) Modeling and assessment of nutrient load into the lakes. Requires accessing water-quality data from multiple agencies and integrating with stream flow information for calculating loads. Emphasis on discrete sampled water quality observations, linking those to specific NHD stream reaches and catchments, and additional metadata for sampled data. The key objectives of these use cases are: 1) To link observations data to the stream network, enabling queries of conditions upstream from a given location to return all relevant gages and well locations. This is currently not practical with the data sources available. 2) To bridge differences in semantics across information models and processes used by the various data producers, to improve the hydrologic and water quality modeling capabilities. Other expected benefits to be derived from this project include: - Leverage a large body of existing data holdings and related activities of multiple agencies in the US and Canada. - Influence data and metadata standards used internationally for web-based information sharing, through multiple agency cooperation and OGC standards setting process. - Reduction of procurement risk through partnership-based development of an initial operating capability verses the cost for building a fully operational system using a traditional "waterfall approach". - Identification and clarification of what is possible, and of the key technical and non-technical barriers to continued progress in sharing and integrating hydrologic and climatic information. - Promote understanding and strengthen ties within the hydro-climatic community. This is anticipated to be the first phase of a multi-phase project, with future work on forecasting the hydrologic consequences of extreme weather events, and enabling more sophisticated water quality modeling.

The Comparison of Point Data Models for the Output of WRF Hydro Model in the IDV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ho, Y.; Weber, J.

2017-12-01

WRF Hydro netCDF output files contain streamflow, flow depth, longitude, latitude, altitude and stream order values for each forecast point. However, the data are not CF compliant. The total number of forecast points for the US CONUS is approximately 2.7 million and it is a big challenge for any visualization and analysis tool. The IDV point cloud display shows point data as a set of points colored by parameter. This display is very efficient compared to a standard point type display for rendering a large number of points. The one problem we have is that the data I/O can be a bottleneck issue when dealing with a large collection of point input files. In this presentation, we will experiment with different point data models and their APIs to access the same WRF Hydro model output. The results will help us construct a CF compliant netCDF point data format for the community.

An Overview of the National Weather Service National Water Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cosgrove, B.; Gochis, D.; Clark, E. P.; Cui, Z.; Dugger, A. L.; Feng, X.; Karsten, L. R.; Khan, S.; Kitzmiller, D.; Lee, H. S.; Liu, Y.; McCreight, J. L.; Newman, A. J.; Oubeidillah, A.; Pan, L.; Pham, C.; Salas, F.; Sampson, K. M.; Sood, G.; Wood, A.; Yates, D. N.; Yu, W.

2016-12-01

The National Weather Service (NWS) Office of Water Prediction (OWP), in conjunction with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and the NWS National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) recently implemented version 1.0 of the National Water Model (NWM) into operations. This model is an hourly cycling uncoupled analysis and forecast system that provides streamflow for 2.7 million river reaches and other hydrologic information on 1km and 250m grids. It will provide complementary hydrologic guidance at current NWS river forecast locations and significantly expand guidance coverage and type in underserved locations. The core of this system is the NCAR-supported community Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF)-Hydro hydrologic model. It ingests forcing from a variety of sources including Multi-Sensor Multi-Radar (MRMS) radar-gauge observed precipitation data and High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR), Rapid Refresh (RAP), Global Forecast System (GFS) and Climate Forecast System (CFS) forecast data. WRF-Hydro is configured to use the Noah-Multi Parameterization (Noah-MP) Land Surface Model (LSM) to simulate land surface processes. Separate water routing modules perform diffusive wave surface routing and saturated subsurface flow routing on a 250m grid, and Muskingum-Cunge channel routing down National Hydrogaphy Dataset Plus V2 (NHDPlusV2) stream reaches. River analyses and forecasts are provided across a domain encompassing the Continental United States (CONUS) and hydrologically contributing areas, while land surface output is available on a larger domain that extends beyond the CONUS into Canada and Mexico (roughly from latitude 19N to 58N). The system includes an analysis and assimilation configuration along with three forecast configurations. These include a short-range 15 hour deterministic forecast, a medium-Range 10 day deterministic forecast and a long-range 30 day 16-member ensemble forecast. United Sates Geologic Survey (USGS) streamflow observations are assimilated into the analysis and assimilation configuration, and all four configurations benefit from the inclusion of 1,260 reservoirs. An overview of the National Water Model will be given, along with information on ongoing evaluation activities and plans for future NWM enhancements.

Statewide Floods in Pennsylvania, January 1996

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, R.E.

1996-01-01

Rivers and streams throughout Pennsylvania (fig. 1) experienced major flooding during January 1996. Flood stages (water-surface heights) and discharges (flows) in many of the Commonwealth's waterways were measured by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and approached or exceeded record levels established during previous floods. Setting the stage for the flooding was an unusually cold beginning to the winter of 1995-96, which resulted in the early formation of ice in streams statewide. The anomaly of early ice was followed by a sequence of unusual meteorological events in January 1996, which, in many areas, resulted in the most widespread and severe flooding since that produced by tropical storm Agnes in June 1972. Locally, the flooding was the worst since August 1955 and, in some areas, since March 1936. In approximately 50 localities throughout Pennsylvania, flood effects were magnified when ice jams caused temporary damming of stream channels, resulting in the rapid rise of water levels and the subsequent overflow of water and ice onto flood plains. During the floods, the USGS collected stream-stage information on a near real- 42°-GffEAWa/CESJ DRWNAG. time basis at 189 streamflow-gaging stations across the Commonwealth. This information was used by various Federal, State, and local agencies to prepare flood forecasts and develop plans for emergency response.

A review and update of the Virginia Department of Transportation's cash flow forecasting model : interim report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-01-01

The Virginia Department of Transportation uses a cash flow forecasting model to predict operations expenditures by month. Components of this general forecasting model estimate line items in the VDOT budget. The cash flow model was developed in the ea...

Effects of Recent Debris Flows on Stream Ecosystems and Food Webs in Small Watersheds in the Central Klamath Mountains, NW California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cover, M. R.; de La Fuente, J.

2008-12-01

Debris flows are common erosional processes in steep mountain areas throughout the world, but little is known about the long-term ecological effects of debris flows on stream ecosystems. Based on debris flow histories that were developed for each of ten tributary basins, we classified channels as having experienced recent (1997) or older (pre-1997) debris flows. Of the streams classified as older debris flow streams, three streams experienced debris flows during floods in 1964 or 1974, while two streams showed little or no evidence of debris flow activity in the 20th century. White alder (Alnus rhombifolia) was the dominant pioneer tree species in recent debris flow streams, forming localized dense patches of canopy cover. Maximum temperatures and daily temperature ranges were significantly higher in recent debris flow streams than in older debris flow streams. Debris flows resulted in a shift in food webs from allochthonous to autochthonous energy sources. Primary productivity, as measured by oxygen change during the day, was greater in recent debris flow streams, resulting in increased abundances of grazers such as the armored caddisfly Glossosoma spp. Detritivorous stoneflies were virtually absent in recent debris flow streams because of the lack of year-round, diverse sources of leaf litter. Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were abundant in four of the recent debris flow streams. Poor recolonizers, such as the Pacific giant salamander (Dicamptodon tenebrosus), coastal tailed frog (Ascaphus truei), and signal crayfish (Pacifistacus leniusculus), were virtually absent in recent debris flow streams. Forest and watershed managers should consider the role of forest disturbances, such as road networks, on debris flow frequency and intensity, and the resulting ecological effects on stream ecosystems.

Linking the pacific decadal oscillation to seasonal stream discharge patterns in Southeast Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Neal, E.G.; Todd, Walter M.; Coffeen, C.

2002-01-01

This study identified and examined differences in Southeast Alaskan streamflow patterns between the two most recent modes of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). Identifying relationships between the PDO and specific regional phenomena is important for understanding climate variability, interpreting historical hydrological variability, and improving water-resources forecasting. Stream discharge data from six watersheds in Southeast Alaska were divided into cold-PDO (1947-1976) and warm-PDO (1977-1998) subsets. For all watersheds, the average annual streamflows during cold-PDO years were not significantly different from warm-PDO years. Monthly and seasonal discharges, however, did differ significantly between the two subsets, with the warm-PDO winter flows being typically higher than the cold-PDO winter flows and the warm-PDO summer flows being typically lower than the cold-PDO flows. These results were consistent with and driven by observed temperature and snowfall patterns for the region. During warm-PDO winters, precipitation fell as rain and ran-off immediately, causing higher than normal winter streamflow. During cold-PDO winters, precipitation was stored as snow and ran off during the summer snowmelt, creating greater summer streamflows. The Mendenhall River was unique in that it experienced higher flows for all seasons during the warm-PDO relative to the cold-PDO. The large amount of Mendenhall River discharge caused by glacial melt during warm-PDO summers offset any flow reduction caused by lack of snow accumulation during warm-PDO winters. The effect of the PDO on Southeast Alaskan watersheds differs from other regions of the Pacific Coast of North America in that monthly/seasonal discharge patterns changed dramatically with the switch in PDO modes but annual discharge did not. ?? 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Derivation and Application of Idealized Flow Conditions in River Network Simulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Afshari Tork, S.; Fekete, B. M.

2015-12-01

Stream flow information is essential for many applications across broad range of scales, e.g. global water balances, engineering design, flood forecasting, environmental management, etc. Quantitative assessment of flow dynamics of natural streams, requires detailed knowledge of all the geometrical and geophysical variables (e.g. bed-slope, bed roughness, etc.) along river reaches. Simplifying the river bed geometries could reduce both the computational burden implementing flow simulations and challenges in assembling the required data, especially for large domains. Average flow conditions expressed as empirical "at-a-station" hydraulic geometry relationships between key channel components, (i.e. water depth, top-width, flow velocity, flow area against discharge) have been studied since 60's. Recent works demonstrated that power-function as idealized riverbed geometry whose parameters are correlated to those of exponential relationship between mean water depth and top-width, are consistent with empirical "at-a-station" relations.US Geological Surveys' National Water Information System web-interface provides huge amount of river discharge and corresponding stage height data from several thousands of streamflow monitoring stations over United States accompanied by river survey summaries providing additional flow informations (width, mean velocity, cross-sectional area). We conducted a series of analyses to indentify consistent data daily monitoring and corresponding survey records that are suitable to refine our current understanding of how the "at-a-station" properties of river channels relate to channel forming characteristics (e.g. riverbed slope, flow regime, geology, etc.). The resulting ~1,200 actively operating USGS stations with over ~225,000 corresponding survery records (almost 200 survey per gauge on average) is the largest river survey database ever studied in the past.Our presentation will show our process assembling our river monitoring and survey data base and we will present our first results translating "at-a-station" relations into he hydraulic geometry of river channels based on idealized power-law riverbed geometries. We also will also present a series of application (e.g. improved flow rounting, simplyfied river surveying).

Using HPC within an operational forecasting configuration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jagers, H. R. A.; Genseberger, M.; van den Broek, M. A. F. H.

2012-04-01

Various natural disasters are caused by high-intensity events, for example: extreme rainfall can in a short time cause major damage in river catchments, storms can cause havoc in coastal areas. To assist emergency response teams in operational decisions, it's important to have reliable information and predictions as soon as possible. This starts before the event by providing early warnings about imminent risks and estimated probabilities of possible scenarios. In the context of various applications worldwide, Deltares has developed an open and highly configurable forecasting and early warning system: Delft-FEWS. Finding the right balance between simulation time (and hence prediction lead time) and simulation accuracy and detail is challenging. Model resolution may be crucial to capture certain critical physical processes. Uncertainty in forcing conditions may require running large ensembles of models; data assimilation techniques may require additional ensembles and repeated simulations. The computational demand is steadily increasing and data streams become bigger. Using HPC resources is a logical step; in different settings Delft-FEWS has been configured to take advantage of distributed computational resources available to improve and accelerate the forecasting process (e.g. Montanari et al, 2006). We will illustrate the system by means of a couple of practical applications including the real-time dynamic forecasting of wind driven waves, flow of water, and wave overtopping at dikes of Lake IJssel and neighboring lakes in the center of The Netherlands. Montanari et al., 2006. Development of an ensemble flood forecasting system for the Po river basin, First MAP D-PHASE Scientific Meeting, 6-8 November 2006, Vienna, Austria.

Regional bankfull geometry relationships for southern California mountain streams and hydrologic applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Modrick, Theresa M.; Georgakakos, Konstantine P.

2014-09-01

This study develops and intercompares regional relationships for bankfull channel width, hydraulic depth, and cross-sectional area for southern California mountain streams based on several data sources: surveyed streams, US Geological Survey stream survey reports, and existing literature. Although considerable uncertainty exists in estimating bankfull conditions, the relationships developed from the varying data sources show significant agreement. For small watersheds with drainage area ranging from 15 to ~ 2000 km2, the estimates of bankfull top width ranged from 7.2 to 44.5 m and hydraulic depth estimates ranged from 0.35 to 1.15 m. The utility of the developed bankfull geometry regional curves is demonstrated for southern California catchments through (a) the computation of the bankfull discharge and (b) the estimation of the surface runoff response necessary to produce bankfull conditions in the streams at the outlet of these catchments. For selected locations with instantaneous flow records, the occurrence frequency of events exceeding bankfull flow was examined for the available 10-15 year span of observational records. Bankfull discharge estimates for all small watersheds in the region ranged from 1.3 to 74 m3/s, while the range at the selected gauged stream locations was from 2.6 to 16.4 m3/s. Stream locations along the Transverse Mountains of southern California showed an average occurrence frequency of less than 1 year, whereas along the Peninsular Mountains the average return period tended to be greater than 1 year. The application of the regional curves to the estimation of the surface runoff response necessary to produce bankfull conditions at the channel outlets of small catchments may be used as an index for conditions of minor flooding with saturated soils. This surface runoff response index ranges from 2.0 to 5.5 mm for a 3-hour rainfall duration for southern California watersheds greater than 15 km2 in area. Differences between the values for the Peninsular and Transverse Mountain Ranges are linked to geological, climatic, and geomorphologic differences. The developed regional geometry relationships are suitable for use in various hydrologic modeling applications, including distributed modeling with high resolution pertinent to flash flood forecasting.

48 CFR 232.072-3 - Cash flow forecasts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... forecasts is a strong indicator of serious managerial deficiencies or potential contract cost or performance... the causes of any differences. (d) Cash flow forecasts must— (1) Show the origin and use of all...

48 CFR 232.072-3 - Cash flow forecasts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... forecasts is a strong indicator of serious managerial deficiencies or potential contract cost or performance... the causes of any differences. (d) Cash flow forecasts must— (1) Show the origin and use of all...

48 CFR 232.072-3 - Cash flow forecasts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... forecasts is a strong indicator of serious managerial deficiencies or potential contract cost or performance... the causes of any differences. (d) Cash flow forecasts must— (1) Show the origin and use of all...

48 CFR 232.072-3 - Cash flow forecasts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... forecasts is a strong indicator of serious managerial deficiencies or potential contract cost or performance... the causes of any differences. (d) Cash flow forecasts must— (1) Show the origin and use of all...

A GLM Post-processor to Adjust Ensemble Forecast Traces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiemann, M.; Day, G. N.; Schaake, J. C.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

2011-12-01

The skill of hydrologic ensemble forecasts has improved in the last years through a better understanding of climate variability, better climate forecasts and new data assimilation techniques. Having been extensively utilized for probabilistic water supply forecasting, interest is developing to utilize these forecasts in operational decision making. Hydrologic ensemble forecast members typically have inherent biases in flow timing and volume caused by (1) structural errors in the models used, (2) systematic errors in the data used to calibrate those models, (3) uncertain initial hydrologic conditions, and (4) uncertainties in the forcing datasets. Furthermore, hydrologic models have often not been developed for operational decision points and ensemble forecasts are thus not always available where needed. A statistical post-processor can be used to address these issues. The post-processor should (1) correct for systematic biases in flow timing and volume, (2) preserve the skill of the available raw forecasts, (3) preserve spatial and temporal correlation as well as the uncertainty in the forecasted flow data, (4) produce adjusted forecast ensembles that represent the variability of the observed hydrograph to be predicted, and (5) preserve individual forecast traces as equally likely. The post-processor should also allow for the translation of available ensemble forecasts to hydrologically similar locations where forecasts are not available. This paper introduces an ensemble post-processor (EPP) developed in support of New York City water supply operations. The EPP employs a general linear model (GLM) to (1) adjust available ensemble forecast traces and (2) create new ensembles for (nearby) locations where only historic flow observations are available. The EPP is calibrated by developing daily and aggregated statistical relationships form historical flow observations and model simulations. These are then used in operation to obtain the conditional probability density function (PDF) of the observations to be predicted, thus jointly adjusting individual ensemble members. These steps are executed in a normalized transformed space ('z'-space) to account for the strong non-linearity in the flow observations involved. A data window centered on each calibration date is used to minimize impacts from sampling errors and data noise. Testing on datasets from California and New York suggests that the EPP can successfully minimize biases in ensemble forecasts, while preserving the raw forecast skill in a 'days to weeks' forecast horizon and reproducing the variability of climatology for 'weeks to years' forecast horizons.

Impact of multi-resolution analysis of artificial intelligence models inputs on multi-step ahead river flow forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badrzadeh, Honey; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Jayawardena, A. W.

2013-12-01

Discrete wavelet transform was applied to decomposed ANN and ANFIS inputs.Novel approach of WNF with subtractive clustering applied for flow forecasting.Forecasting was performed in 1-5 step ahead, using multi-variate inputs.Forecasting accuracy of peak values and longer lead-time significantly improved.

Long-term flow forecasts based on climate and hydrologic modeling: Uruguay River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucci, Carlos Eduardo Morelli; Clarke, Robin Thomas; Collischonn, Walter; da Silva Dias, Pedro Leite; de Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio

2003-07-01

This paper describes a procedure for predicting seasonal flow in the Rio Uruguay drainage basin (area 75,000 km2, lying in Brazilian territory), using sequences of future daily rainfall given by the global climate model (GCM) of the Brazilian agency for climate prediction (Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Clima, or CPTEC). Sequences of future daily rainfall given by this model were used as input to a rainfall-runoff model appropriate for large drainage basins. Forecasts of flow in the Rio Uruguay were made for the period 1995-2001 of the full record, which began in 1940. Analysis showed that GCM forecasts underestimated rainfall over almost all the basin, particularly in winter, although interannual variability in regional rainfall was reproduced relatively well. A statistical procedure was used to correct for the underestimation of rainfall. When the corrected rainfall sequences were transformed to flow by the hydrologic model, forecasts of flow in the Rio Uruguay basin were better than forecasts based on historic mean or median flows by 37% for monthly flows and by 54% for 3-monthly flows.

Hybrid Stochastic Forecasting Model for Management of Large Open Water Reservoir with Storage Function

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kozel, Tomas; Stary, Milos

2017-12-01

The main advantage of stochastic forecasting is fan of possible value whose deterministic method of forecasting could not give us. Future development of random process is described better by stochastic then deterministic forecasting. Discharge in measurement profile could be categorized as random process. Content of article is construction and application of forecasting model for managed large open water reservoir with supply function. Model is based on neural networks (NS) and zone models, which forecasting values of average monthly flow from inputs values of average monthly flow, learned neural network and random numbers. Part of data was sorted to one moving zone. The zone is created around last measurement average monthly flow. Matrix of correlation was assembled only from data belonging to zone. The model was compiled for forecast of 1 to 12 month with using backward month flows (NS inputs) from 2 to 11 months for model construction. Data was got ridded of asymmetry with help of Box-Cox rule (Box, Cox, 1964), value r was found by optimization. In next step were data transform to standard normal distribution. The data were with monthly step and forecast is not recurring. 90 years long real flow series was used for compile of the model. First 75 years were used for calibration of model (matrix input-output relationship), last 15 years were used only for validation. Outputs of model were compared with real flow series. For comparison between real flow series (100% successfully of forecast) and forecasts, was used application to management of artificially made reservoir. Course of water reservoir management using Genetic algorithm (GE) + real flow series was compared with Fuzzy model (Fuzzy) + forecast made by Moving zone model. During evaluation process was founding the best size of zone. Results show that the highest number of input did not give the best results and ideal size of zone is in interval from 25 to 35, when course of management was almost same for all numbers from interval. Resulted course of management was compared with course, which was obtained from using GE + real flow series. Comparing results showed that fuzzy model with forecasted values has been able to manage main malfunction and artificially disorders made by model were founded essential, after values of water volume during management were evaluated. Forecasting model in combination with fuzzy model provide very good results in management of water reservoir with storage function and can be recommended for this purpose.

Patterns and age distribution of ground-water flow to streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Modica, E.; Reilly, T.E.; Pollock, D.W.

1997-01-01

Simulations of ground-water flow in a generic aquifer system were made to characterize the topology of ground-water flow in the stream subsystem and to evaluate its relation to deeper ground-water flow. The flow models are patterned after hydraulic characteristics of aquifers of the Atlantic Coastal Plain and are based on numerical solutions to three-dimensional, steady-state, unconfined flow. The models were used to evaluate the effects of aquifer horizontal-to-vertical hydraulic conductivity ratios, aquifer thickness, and areal recharge rates on flow in the stream subsystem. A particle tracker was used to determine flow paths in a stream subsystem, to establish the relation between ground-water seepage to points along a simulated stream and its source area of flow, and to determine ground-water residence time in stream subsystems. In a geometrically simple aquifer system with accretion, the source area of flow to streams resembles an elongated ellipse that tapers in the downgradient direction. Increased recharge causes an expansion of the stream subsystem. The source area of flow to the stream expands predominantly toward the stream headwaters. Baseflow gain is also increased along the reach of the stream. A thin aquifer restricts ground-water flow and causes the source area of flow to expand near stream headwaters and also shifts the start-of-flow to the drainage basin divide. Increased aquifer anisotropy causes a lateral expansion of the source area of flow to streams. Ground-water seepage to the stream channel originates both from near- and far-recharge locations. The range in the lengths of flow paths that terminate at a point on a stream increase in the downstream direction. Consequently, the age distribution of ground water that seeps into the stream is skewed progressively older with distance downstream. Base flow ia an integration of ground water with varying age and potentially different water quality, depending on the source within the drainage basin. The quantitative results presented indicate that this integration can have a wide and complex residence time range and source distribution.

Forecasting fish biomasses, densities, productions, and bioaccumulation potentials of Mid-Atlantic wadeable streams

EPA Science Inventory

Regional fishery conditions of Mid-Atlantic wadeable streams in the eastern United States are estimated using the BASS bioaccumulation and fish community model and data collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP)....

Flood-inundation maps for the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, Allenstown, and Chichester, New Hampshire

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flynn, Robert H.; Johnston, Craig M.; Hays, Laura

2012-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 16.5-mile reach of the Suncook River in Epsom, Pembroke, Allenstown, and Chichester, N.H., from the confluence with the Merrimack River to U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Suncook River streamgage 01089500 at Depot Road in North Chichester, N.H., were created by the USGS in cooperation with the New Hampshire Department of Homeland Security and Emergency Management. The inundation maps presented in this report depict estimates of the areal extent and depth of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage at Suncook River at North Chichester, N.H. (station 01089500). The current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet (http://waterdata.usgs.gov/nh/nwis/uv/?site_no=01089500&PARAmeter_cd=00065,00060). The National Weather Service forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated with USGS streamgages. Forecasted peak-stage information is available on the Internet at the National Weather Service (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood-warning system site (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/) and may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. These maps along with real-time stream stage data from the USGS Suncook River streamgage (station 01089500) and forecasted stream stage from the NWS will provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood-response activities, such as evacuations, road closures, disaster declarations, and post-flood recovery. The maps, along with current stream-stage data from the USGS Suncook River streamgage and forecasted stream-stage data from the NWS, can be accessed at the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/.

Application of a medium-range global hydrologic probabilistic forecast scheme to the Ohio River Basin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Voisin, Nathalie; Pappenberger, Florian; Lettenmaier, D. P.

2011-08-15

A 10-day globally applicable flood prediction scheme was evaluated using the Ohio River basin as a test site for the period 2003-2007. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrology model was initialized with the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis temperatures and wind, and Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission Multi Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) precipitation up to the day of forecast. In forecast mode, the VIC model was then forced with a calibrated and statistically downscaled ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) 10-day ensemble forecast. A parallel set up was used where ECMWF EPS forecasts were interpolated to the spatialmore » scale of the hydrology model. Each set of forecasts was extended by 5 days using monthly mean climatological variables and zero precipitation in order to account for the effect of initial conditions. The 15-day spatially distributed ensemble runoff forecasts were then routed to four locations in the basin, each with different drainage areas. Surrogates for observed daily runoff and flow were provided by the reference run, specifically VIC simulation forced with ECMWF analysis fields and TMPA precipitation fields. The flood prediction scheme using the calibrated and downscaled ECMWF EPS forecasts was shown to be more accurate and reliable than interpolated forecasts for both daily distributed runoff forecasts and daily flow forecasts. Initial and antecedent conditions dominated the flow forecasts for lead times shorter than the time of concentration depending on the flow forecast amounts and the drainage area sizes. The flood prediction scheme had useful skill for the 10 following days at all sites.« less

Forecasting fish biomasses, densities, productions, and bioaccumulation potentials of mid-atlantic wadeable streams.

PubMed

Barber, M Craig; Rashleigh, Brenda; Cyterski, Michael J

2016-01-01

Regional fishery conditions of Mid-Atlantic wadeable streams in the eastern United States are estimated using the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) bioaccumulation and fish community model and data collected by the US Environmental Protection Agency's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP). Average annual biomasses and population densities and annual productions are estimated for 352 randomly selected streams. Realized bioaccumulation factors (BAF) and biomagnification factors (BMF), which are dependent on these forecasted biomasses, population densities, and productions, are also estimated by assuming constant water exposures to methylmercury and tetra-, penta-, hexa-, and hepta-chlorinated biphenyls. Using observed biomasses, observed densities, and estimated annual productions of total fish from 3 regions assumed to support healthy fisheries as benchmarks (eastern Tennessee and Catskill Mountain trout streams and Ozark Mountains smallmouth bass streams), 58% of the region's wadeable streams are estimated to be in marginal or poor condition (i.e., not healthy). Using simulated BAFs and EMAP Hg fish concentrations, we also estimate that approximately 24% of the game fish and subsistence fishing species that are found in streams having detectable Hg concentrations would exceed an acceptable human consumption criterion of 0.185 μg/g wet wt. Importantly, such streams have been estimated to represent 78.2% to 84.4% of the Mid-Atlantic's wadeable stream lengths. Our results demonstrate how a dynamic simulation model can support regional assessment and trends analysis for fisheries. © 2015 SETAC.

A data-assimilative ocean forecasting system for the Prince William sound and an evaluation of its performance during sound Predictions 2009

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Farrara, John D.; Chao, Yi; Li, Zhijin; Wang, Xiaochun; Jin, Xin; Zhang, Hongchun; Li, Peggy; Vu, Quoc; Olsson, Peter Q.; Schoch, G. Carl; Halverson, Mark; Moline, Mark A.; Ohlmann, Carter; Johnson, Mark; McWilliams, James C.; Colas, Francois A.

2013-07-01

The development and implementation of a three-dimensional ocean modeling system for the Prince William Sound (PWS) is described. The system consists of a regional ocean model component (ROMS) forced by output from a regional atmospheric model component (the Weather Research and Forecasting Model, WRF). The ROMS ocean model component has a horizontal resolution of 1km within PWS and utilizes a recently-developed multi-scale 3DVAR data assimilation methodology along with freshwater runoff from land obtained via real-time execution of a digital elevation model. During the Sound Predictions Field Experiment (July 19-August 3, 2009) the system was run in real-time to support operations and incorporated all available real-time streams of data. Nowcasts were produced every 6h and a 48-h forecast was performed once a day. In addition, a sixteen-member ensemble of forecasts was executed on most days. All results were published at a web portal (http://ourocean.jpl.nasa.gov/PWS) in real time to support decision making.The performance of the system during Sound Predictions 2009 is evaluated. The ROMS results are first compared with the assimilated data as a consistency check. RMS differences of about 0.7°C were found between the ROMS temperatures and the observed vertical profiles of temperature that are assimilated. The ROMS salinities show greater discrepancies, tending to be too salty near the surface. The overall circulation patterns observed throughout the Sound are qualitatively reproduced, including the following evolution in time. During the first week of the experiment, the weather was quite stormy with strong southeasterly winds. This resulted in strong north to northwestward surface flow in much of the central PWS. Both the observed drifter trajectories and the ROMS nowcasts showed strong surface inflow into the Sound through the Hinchinbrook Entrance and strong generally northward to northwestward flow in the central Sound that was exiting through the Knight Island Passage and Montague Strait entrance. During the latter part of the second week when surface winds were light and southwesterly, the mean surface flow at the Hinchinbrook Entrance reversed to weak outflow and a cyclonic eddy formed in the central Sound. Overall, RMS differences between ROMS surface currents and observed HF radar surface currents in the central Sound were generally between 5 and 10cm/s, about 20-40% of the time mean current speeds.The ROMS reanalysis is then validated against independent observations. A comparison of the ROMS currents with observed vertical current profiles from moored ADCPs in the Hinchinbrook Entrance and Montague Strait shows good qualitative agreement and confirms the evolution of the near surface inflow/outflow at these locations described above. A comparison of the ROMS surface currents with drifter trajectories provided additional confirmation that the evolution of the surface flow described above was realistic. Forecasts of drifter locations had RMS errors of less than 10km for up to 36h. One and two-day forecasts of surface temperature, salinity and current fields were more skillful than persistence forecasts. In addition, ensemble mean forecasts were found to be slightly more skillful than single forecasts. Two case studies demonstrated the system's qualitative skill in predicting subsurface changes within the mixed layer measured by ships and autonomous underwater vehicles. In summary, the system is capable of producing a realistic evolution of the near-surface circulation within PWS including forecasts of up to two days of this evolution. Use of the products provided by the system during the experiment as part of the asset deployment decision making process demonstrated the value of accurate regional ocean forecasts in support of field experiments.

Distributed Application of the Unified Noah LSM with Hydrologic Flow Routing on an Appalachian Headwater Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garcia, M.; Kumar, S.; Gochis, D.; Yates, D.; McHenry, J.; Burnet, T.; Coats, C.; Condrey, J.

2006-05-01

Collaboration between scientists at UMBC-GEST and NASA-GSFC, the NCAR Research Applications Laboratory (RAL), and Baron Advanced Meteorological Services (BAMS), has produced a modeling framework for the application of traditional land surface models (LSMs) in a distributed hydrologic system which can be used for diagnosis and prediction of routed stream discharge hydrographs. This collaboration is oriented on near-term system implementation across Romania for flood and flash-flood analyses and forecasting as part of the World Bank-funded Destructive Waters Abatement (DESWAT) program. Meteorological forcing from surface observations, model analyses and numerical forecasts are employed in the NASA-GSFC Land Information System (LIS) to drive the Unified Noah LSM with Noah-Distributed components, stream network delineation and routing schemes original to this work. The Unified Noah LSM is the outgrowth of a joint modeling effort between several research partners including NCAR, the NOAA National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA). At NCAR, hydrologically-oriented extensions to the Noah LSM have been developed for LSM applications in a distributed domain in order to address the lateral redistribution of soil moisture by surface and subsurface flow processes. These advancements have been integrated into the NASA-GSFC Land Information System (LIS) and coupled with an original framework for hydraulic channel network definition and specification, linkages with the Noah-Distributed overland and subsurface flow framework, and distributed cell- to-cell (or link-node) hydraulic routing. This poster presents an overview of the system components and their organization, as well as results of the first U.S. case study performed with this system under various configurations. The case study simulated precipitation events over a headwater basin in the southern Appalachian Mountains in October 2005 following the landfall of Tropical Storm Tammy in South Carolina. These events followed on a long dry period in the region, lending to the demonstration of watershed response to strong precipitation forcing under nearly ideal and easily-specified initial conditions. The results presented here will compare simulated versus observed streamflow conditions at various locations in the test watershed using a selection of routing methods.

NWS Marine Forecast Areas

Science.gov Websites

Currents Global Ocean Model Sea Surface Temperatures Gulf Stream ASCII Data Gulf Stream Comparison Gridded ASCAT Scatterometer Winds Lightning Strike Density Satellite Imagery Ocean Global Ocean Model , 2017 19:10:57 UTC Disclaimer Information Quality Help Glossary Privacy Policy Freedom of Information

Impact of Reservoir Operation to the Inflow Flood - a Case Study of Xinfengjiang Reservoir

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, L.

2017-12-01

Building of reservoir shall impact the runoff production and routing characteristics, and changes the flood formation. This impact, called as reservoir flood effect, could be divided into three parts, including routing effect, volume effect and peak flow effect, and must be evaluated in a whole by using hydrological model. After analyzing the reservoir flood formation, the Liuxihe Model for reservoir flood forecasting is proposed. The Xinfengjiang Reservoir is studied as a case. Results show that the routing effect makes peak flow appear 4 to 6 hours in advance, volume effect is bigger for large flood than small one, and when rainfall focus on the reservoir area, this effect also increases peak flow largely, peak flow effect makes peak flow increase 6.63% to 8.95%. Reservoir flood effect is obvious, which have significant impact to reservoir flood. If this effect is not considered in the flood forecasting model, the flood could not be forecasted accurately, particularly the peak flow. Liuxihe Model proposed for Xinfengjiang Reservoir flood forecasting has a good performance, and could be used for real-time flood forecasting of Xinfengjiang Reservoir.Key words: Reservoir flood effect, reservoir flood forecasting, physically based distributed hydrological model, Liuxihe Model, parameter optimization

Satellite Altimetry based River Forecasting of Transboundary Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, F.; Siddique-E-Akbor, A.; Lee, H.; Shum, C.; Biancamaria, S.

2012-12-01

Forecasting of this transboundary flow in downstream nations however remains notoriously difficult due to the lack of basin-wide in-situ hydrologic measurements or its real-time sharing among nations. In addition, human regulation of upstream flow through diversion projects and dams, make hydrologic models less effective for forecasting on their own. Using the Ganges-Brahmaputra (GB) basin as an example, this study assesses the feasibility of using JASON-2 satellite altimetry for forecasting such transboundary flow at locations further inside the downstream nation of Bangladesh by propagating forecasts derived from upstream (Indian) locations through a hydrodynamic river model. The 5-day forecast of river levels at upstream boundary points inside Bangladesh are used to initialize daily simulation of the hydrodynamic river model and yield the 5-day forecast river level further downstream inside Bangladesh. The forecast river levels are then compared with the 5-day-later "now cast" simulation by the river model based on in-situ river level at the upstream boundary points in Bangladesh. Future directions for satellite-based forecasting of flow are also briefly overviewed.round tracks or virtual stations of JASON-2 (J2) altimeter over the GB basin shown in yellow lines. The locations where the track crosses a river and used for deriving forecasting rating curves is shown with a circle and station number (magenta- Brahmaputra basin; blue - Ganges basin). Circles without a station number represent the broader view of sampling by JASON-2 if all the ground tracks on main stem rivers and neighboring tributaries of Ganges and Brahmaputra are considered.

Forecasting Significant Societal Events Using The Embers Streaming Predictive Analytics System

PubMed Central

Katz, Graham; Summers, Kristen; Ackermann, Chris; Zavorin, Ilya; Lim, Zunsik; Muthiah, Sathappan; Butler, Patrick; Self, Nathan; Zhao, Liang; Lu, Chang-Tien; Khandpur, Rupinder Paul; Fayed, Youssef; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2014-01-01

Abstract Developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity Open Source Indicators program, Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates (EMBERS) is a large-scale big data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest events on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November 2012 and delivers approximately 50 predictions each day for countries of Latin America. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, loosely coupled, shared-nothing architecture using ZeroMQ as its messaging backbone and JSON as its wire data format. It is deployed on Amazon Web Services using an entirely automated deployment process. We describe the architecture of the system, some of the design tradeoffs encountered during development, and specifics of the machine learning models underlying EMBERS. We also present a detailed prospective evaluation of EMBERS in forecasting significant societal events in the past 2 years. PMID:25553271

Forecasting Significant Societal Events Using The Embers Streaming Predictive Analytics System.

PubMed

Doyle, Andy; Katz, Graham; Summers, Kristen; Ackermann, Chris; Zavorin, Ilya; Lim, Zunsik; Muthiah, Sathappan; Butler, Patrick; Self, Nathan; Zhao, Liang; Lu, Chang-Tien; Khandpur, Rupinder Paul; Fayed, Youssef; Ramakrishnan, Naren

2014-12-01

Developed under the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity Open Source Indicators program, Early Model Based Event Recognition using Surrogates (EMBERS) is a large-scale big data analytics system for forecasting significant societal events, such as civil unrest events on the basis of continuous, automated analysis of large volumes of publicly available data. It has been operational since November 2012 and delivers approximately 50 predictions each day for countries of Latin America. EMBERS is built on a streaming, scalable, loosely coupled, shared-nothing architecture using ZeroMQ as its messaging backbone and JSON as its wire data format. It is deployed on Amazon Web Services using an entirely automated deployment process. We describe the architecture of the system, some of the design tradeoffs encountered during development, and specifics of the machine learning models underlying EMBERS. We also present a detailed prospective evaluation of EMBERS in forecasting significant societal events in the past 2 years.

Real-Time Analysis of a Sensor's Data for Automated Decision Making in an IoT-Based Smart Home.

PubMed

Khan, Nida Saddaf; Ghani, Sayeed; Haider, Sajjad

2018-05-25

IoT devices frequently generate large volumes of streaming data and in order to take advantage of this data, their temporal patterns must be learned and identified. Streaming data analysis has become popular after being successfully used in many applications including forecasting electricity load, stock market prices, weather conditions, etc. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been successfully utilized in understanding the embedded interesting patterns/behaviors in the data and forecasting the future values based on it. One such pattern is modelled and learned in the present study to identify the occurrence of a specific pattern in a Water Management System (WMS). This prediction aids in making an automatic decision support system, to switch OFF a hydraulic suction pump at the appropriate time. Three types of ANN, namely Multi-Input Multi-Output (MIMO), Multi-Input Single-Output (MISO), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) have been compared, for multi-step-ahead forecasting, on a sensor's streaming data. Experiments have shown that RNN has the best performance among three models and based on its prediction, a system can be implemented to make the best decision with 86% accuracy.

The Field Production of Water for Injection

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-01

L/day Bedridden Patient 0.75 L/day Average Diseased Patient 0.50 L/day e (There is no feasible methodology to forecast the number of procedures per... Bedridden Patient 0.75 All Diseased Patients 0.50 An estimate of the liters/day needed may be calculated based on a forecasted patient stream, including

Global characteristics of stream flow seasonality and variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Diaz, Henry F.

2000-01-01

Monthly stream flow series from 1345 sites around the world are used to characterize geographic differences in the seasonality and year-to-year variability of stream flow. Stream flow seasonality varies regionally, depending on the timing of maximum precipitation, evapotranspiration, and contributions from snow and ice. Lags between peaks of precipitation and stream flow vary smoothly from long delays in high-latitude and mountainous regions to short delays in the warmest sectors. Stream flow is most variable from year to year in dry regions of the southwest United States and Mexico, the Sahel, and southern continents, and it varies more (relatively) than precipitation in the same regions. Tropical rivers have the steadiest flows. El Nin??o variations are correlated with stream flow in many parts of the Americas, Europe, and Australia. Many stream flow series from North America, Europe, and the Tropics reflect North Pacific climate, whereas series from the eastern United States, Europe, and tropical South America and Africa reflect North Atlantic climate variations.

Regional ground-water discharge to large streams in the upper coastal plain of South Carolina and parts of North Carolina and Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Aucott, W.R.; Meadows, R.S.; Patterson, G.G.

1987-01-01

Base flow was computed to estimate discharge from regional aquifers for six large streams in the upper Coastal Plain of South Carolina and parts of North Carolina and Georgia. Aquifers that sustain the base flow of both large and small streams are stratified into shallow and deep flow systems. Base-flow during dry conditions on main stems of large streams was assumed to be the discharge from the deep groundwater flow system. Six streams were analyzed: the Savannah, South and North Fork Edisto, Lynches, Pee Dee, and the Luber Rivers. Stream reaches in the Upper Coastal Plain were studied because of the relatively large aquifer discharge in these areas in comparison to the lower Coastal Plain. Estimates of discharge from the deep groundwater flow system to the six large streams averaged 1.8 cu ft/sec/mi of stream and 0.11 cu ft/sec/sq mi of surface drainage area. The estimates were made by subtracting all tributary inflows from the discharge gain between two gaging stations on a large stream during an extreme low-flow period. These estimates pertain only to flow in the deep groundwater flow system. Shallow flow systems and total base flow are > flow in the deep system. (USGS)

Effects of Debris Flows on Stream Ecosystems of the Klamath Mountains, Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cover, M. R.; Delafuente, J. A.; Resh, V. H.

2006-12-01

We examined the long-term effects of debris flows on channel characteristics and aquatic food webs in steep (0.04-0.06 slope), small (4-6 m wide) streams. A large rain-on-snow storm event in January 1997 resulted in numerous landslides and debris flows throughout many basins in the Klamath Mountains of northern California. Debris floods resulted in extensive impacts throughout entire drainage networks, including mobilization of valley floor deposits and removal of vegetation. Comparing 5 streams scoured by debris flows in 1997 and 5 streams that had not been scoured as recently, we determined that debris-flows decreased channel complexity by reducing alluvial step frequency and large woody debris volumes. Unscoured streams had more diverse riparian vegetation, whereas scoured streams were dominated by dense, even-aged stands of white alder (Alnus rhombiflia). Benthic invertebrate shredders, especially nemourid and peltoperlid stoneflies, were more abundant and diverse in unscoured streams, reflecting the more diverse allochthonous resources. Debris flows resulted in increased variability in canopy cover, depending on degree of alder recolonization. Periphyton biomass was higher in unscoured streams, but primary production was greater in the recently scoured streams, suggesting that invertebrate grazers kept algal assemblages in an early successional state. Glossosomatid caddisflies were predominant scrapers in scoured streams; heptageniid mayflies were abundant in unscoured streams. Rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) were of similar abundance in scoured and unscoured streams, but scoured streams were dominated by young-of-the-year fish while older juveniles were more abundant in unscoured streams. Differences in the presence of cold-water (Doroneuria) versus warm-water (Calineuria) perlid stoneflies suggest that debris flows have altered stream temperatures. Debris flows have long-lasting impacts on stream communities, primarily through the cascading effects of removal of riparian vegetation. Because debris flow frequency increases following road construction and timber harvest, the long-term biological effects of debris flows on stream ecosystems, including anadromous fish populations, needs to be considered in forest management decisions.

Accuracy enhancement for forecasting water levels of reservoirs and river streams using a multiple-input-pattern fuzzification approach.

PubMed

Valizadeh, Nariman; El-Shafie, Ahmed; Mirzaei, Majid; Galavi, Hadi; Mukhlisin, Muhammad; Jaafar, Othman

2014-01-01

Water level forecasting is an essential topic in water management affecting reservoir operations and decision making. Recently, modern methods utilizing artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, and combinations of these techniques have been used in hydrological applications because of their considerable ability to map an input-output pattern without requiring prior knowledge of the criteria influencing the forecasting procedure. The artificial neurofuzzy interface system (ANFIS) is one of the most accurate models used in water resource management. Because the membership functions (MFs) possess the characteristics of smoothness and mathematical components, each set of input data is able to yield the best result using a certain type of MF in the ANFIS models. The objective of this study is to define the different ANFIS model by applying different types of MFs for each type of input to forecast the water level in two case studies, the Klang Gates Dam and Rantau Panjang station on the Johor river in Malaysia, to compare the traditional ANFIS model with the new introduced one in two different situations, reservoir and stream, showing the new approach outweigh rather than the traditional one in both case studies. This objective is accomplished by evaluating the model fitness and performance in daily forecasting.

Accuracy Enhancement for Forecasting Water Levels of Reservoirs and River Streams Using a Multiple-Input-Pattern Fuzzification Approach

PubMed Central

Mirzaei, Majid; Jaafar, Othman

2014-01-01

Water level forecasting is an essential topic in water management affecting reservoir operations and decision making. Recently, modern methods utilizing artificial intelligence, fuzzy logic, and combinations of these techniques have been used in hydrological applications because of their considerable ability to map an input-output pattern without requiring prior knowledge of the criteria influencing the forecasting procedure. The artificial neurofuzzy interface system (ANFIS) is one of the most accurate models used in water resource management. Because the membership functions (MFs) possess the characteristics of smoothness and mathematical components, each set of input data is able to yield the best result using a certain type of MF in the ANFIS models. The objective of this study is to define the different ANFIS model by applying different types of MFs for each type of input to forecast the water level in two case studies, the Klang Gates Dam and Rantau Panjang station on the Johor river in Malaysia, to compare the traditional ANFIS model with the new introduced one in two different situations, reservoir and stream, showing the new approach outweigh rather than the traditional one in both case studies. This objective is accomplished by evaluating the model fitness and performance in daily forecasting. PMID:24790567

AE Geomagnetic Index Predictability for High Speed Solar Wind Streams: A Wavelet Decomposition Technique

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Guarnieri, Fernando L.; Tsurutani, Bruce T.; Hajra, Rajkumar; Echer, Ezequiel; Gonzalez, Walter D.; Mannucci, Anthony J.

2014-01-01

High speed solar wind streams cause geomagnetic activity at Earth. In this study we have applied a wavelet interactive filtering and reconstruction technique on the solar wind magnetic field components and AE index series to allowed us to investigate the relationship between the two. The IMF Bz component was found as the most significant solar wind parameter responsible by the control of the AE activity. Assuming magnetic reconnection associated to southward directed Bz is the main mechanism transferring energy into the magnetosphere, we adjust parameters to forecast the AE index. The adjusted routine is able to forecast AE, based only on the Bz measured at the L1 Lagrangian point. This gives a prediction approximately 30-70 minutes in advance of the actual geomagnetic activity. The correlation coefficient between the observed AE data and the forecasted series reached values higher than 0.90. In some cases the forecast reproduced particularities observed in the signal very well.The high correlation values observed and the high efficacy of the forecasting can be taken as a confirmation that reconnection is the main physical mechanism responsible for the energy transfer during HILDCAAs. The study also shows that the IMF Bz component low frequencies are most important for AE prediction.

NASA satellite helps airliners avoid ozone concentrations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1981-01-01

Results from a test to determine the effectiveness of satellite data for helping airlines avoid heavy concentrations of ozone are reported. Information from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer, aboard the Nimbus-7 was transmitted, for use in meteorological forecast activities. The results show: (1) Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer profile of total ozone in the atmosphere accurately represents upper air patterns and can be used to locate meteorological activity; (2) route forecasting of highly concentrated ozone is feasible; (3) five research aircraft flights were flown in jet stream regions located by the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer to determine winds, temperatures, and air composition. It is shown that the jet stream is coincides with the area of highest total ozone gradient, and low total ozone amounts are found where tropospheric air has been carried along above the tropopause on the anticyclonic side of the subtropical jet stream.

Natural and Diverted Low-Flow Duration Discharges for Streams Affected by the Waiahole Ditch System, Windward O`ahu, Hawai`i

USGS Publications Warehouse

Yeung, Chiu W.; Fontaine, Richard A.

2007-01-01

For nearly a century, the Waiahole Ditch System has diverted an average of approximately 27 million gallons per day of water from the wet, northeastern part of windward O`ahu, Hawai`i, to the dry, central part of the island to meet irrigation needs. The system intercepts large amounts of dike-impounded ground water at high altitudes (above approximately 700 to 800 ft) that previously discharged to Waiahole (and its tributaries Waianu and Uwao), Waikane, and Kahana Streams through seeps and springs. Diversion of this ground water has significantly diminished low flows in these streams. Estimates of natural and diverted flows are needed by water managers for (1) setting permanent instream flow standards to protect, enhance, and reestablish beneficial instream uses of water in the diverted streams and (2) allocating the diverted water for instream and offstream uses. Data collected before construction of the Waiahole Ditch System reflect natural (undiverted) flow conditions. Natural low-flow duration discharges for percentiles ranging from 50 to 99 percent were estimated for four sites at altitudes of 75 to 320 feet in Waiahole Stream (and its tributaries Waianu and Uwao Streams), for six sites at altitudes of 10 to 220 feet in Waikane Stream, and for three sites at altitudes of 30 to 80 feet in Kahana Stream. Among the available low-flow estimates along each affected stream, the highest natural Q50 (median) flows on Waiahole (altitude 250 ft), Waianu (altitude 75 ft), Waikane (altitude 75 ft), and Kahana Streams (altitude 30 ft) are 13, 7.0, 5.5, and 22 million gallons per day, respectively. Q50 (median) is just one of five duration percentiles presented in this report to quantify low-flow discharges. All flow-duration estimates were adjusted to a common period of 1960-2004 (called the base period). Natural flow-duration estimates compared favorably with limited pre-ditch streamflow data available for Waiahole and Kahana Streams. Data collected since construction of the ditch system reflect diverted flow conditions, which can be further divided into pre-release and post-release periods - several flow releases to Waiahole, Waianu, and Waikane Streams were initiated between December 1994 and October 2002. Comparison of pre-release to natural flows indicate that the effects of the Waiahole Ditch System diversion are consistently greater at lower low-flow conditions (Q99 to Q90) than at higher low-flow conditions (Q75 to Q50). Results also indicate that the effects of the diversion become less significant as the streams gain additional ground water at lower altitudes. For Waiahole Stream, pre-release flows range from 25 to 28 percent of natural flows at an altitude of 250 feet and from 19 to 20 percent at an altitude of 320 feet. For Waikane Stream, pre-release flows range from 30 to 46 percent of natural flows at an altitude of 10 feet and from 7 to 19 percent at an altitude of 220 feet. For Kahana Stream, pre-release flows range from 65 to 72 percent of natural flows at an altitude of 30 feet and from 58 to 71 percent at an altitude of 80 feet. Estimates of post-release flows were compared with estimates of natural flows to assess how closely current streamflows are to natural conditions. For Waianu Stream, post-release flows at an altitude of 75 feet are 41 to 46 percent lower than corresponding natural flows. For Waikane Stream, post-release flows at an altitude of 75 feet are within 12 percent of the corresponding natural flows. Comparisons of pre-release and post-release flows for Waikane Stream at altitudes of 10 to 220 feet were used to assess downstream changes in flow along the stream reach where flow releases were made. For a particular stream altitude, proportions of pre-release to post-release flows associated with median flows are consistently greater than proportions associated with lower low flows because the relative effect of the flow release is smaller at higher low flows. Similarly, for a particular f

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-12-04

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy-atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models.

Verification of Ensemble Forecasts for the New York City Operations Support Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Day, G.; Schaake, J. C.; Thiemann, M.; Draijer, S.; Wang, L.

2012-12-01

The New York City water supply system operated by the Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) serves nine million people. It covers 2,000 square miles of portions of the Catskill, Delaware, and Croton watersheds, and it includes nineteen reservoirs and three controlled lakes. DEP is developing an Operations Support Tool (OST) to support its water supply operations and planning activities. OST includes historical and real-time data, a model of the water supply system complete with operating rules, and lake water quality models developed to evaluate alternatives for managing turbidity in the New York City Catskill reservoirs. OST will enable DEP to manage turbidity in its unfiltered system while satisfying its primary objective of meeting the City's water supply needs, in addition to considering secondary objectives of maintaining ecological flows, supporting fishery and recreation releases, and mitigating downstream flood peaks. The current version of OST relies on statistical forecasts of flows in the system based on recent observed flows. To improve short-term decision making, plans are being made to transition to National Weather Service (NWS) ensemble forecasts based on hydrologic models that account for short-term weather forecast skill, longer-term climate information, as well as the hydrologic state of the watersheds and recent observed flows. To ensure that the ensemble forecasts are unbiased and that the ensemble spread reflects the actual uncertainty of the forecasts, a statistical model has been developed to post-process the NWS ensemble forecasts to account for hydrologic model error as well as any inherent bias and uncertainty in initial model states, meteorological data and forecasts. The post-processor is designed to produce adjusted ensemble forecasts that are consistent with the DEP historical flow sequences that were used to develop the system operating rules. A set of historical hindcasts that is representative of the real-time ensemble forecasts is needed to verify that the post-processed forecasts are unbiased, statistically reliable, and preserve the skill inherent in the "raw" NWS ensemble forecasts. A verification procedure and set of metrics will be presented that provide an objective assessment of ensemble forecasts. The procedure will be applied to both raw ensemble hindcasts and to post-processed ensemble hindcasts. The verification metrics will be used to validate proper functioning of the post-processor and to provide a benchmark for comparison of different types of forecasts. For example, current NWS ensemble forecasts are based on climatology, using each historical year to generate a forecast trace. The NWS Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) under development will utilize output from both the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) and the Climate Forecast System (CFS). Incorporating short-term meteorological forecasts and longer-term climate forecast information should provide sharper, more accurate forecasts. Hindcasts from HEFS will enable New York City to generate verification results to validate the new forecasts and further fine-tune system operating rules. Project verification results will be presented for different watersheds across a range of seasons, lead times, and flow levels to assess the quality of the current ensemble forecasts.

High levels of endocrine pollutants in US streams during low flow due to insufficient wastewater dilution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rice, Jacelyn; Westerhoff, Paul

2017-08-01

Wastewater discharges from publicly owned treatment works are a significant source of endocrine disruptors and other contaminants to the aquatic environment in the US. Although remaining pollutants in wastewater pose environmental risks, treated wastewater is also a primary source of stream flow, which in turn is critical in maintaining many aquatic and riparian wildlife habitats. Here we calculate the dilution factor--the ratio of flow in the stream receiving discharge to the flow of wastewater discharge--for over 14,000 receiving streams in the continental US using streamflow observations and a spatially explicit watershed-scale hydraulic model. We found that wastewater discharges make up more than 50% of in-stream flow for over 900 streams. However, in 1,049 streams that experienced exceptional low-flow conditions, the dilution factors in 635 of those streams fell so low during those conditions that the safety threshold for concentrations of one endocrine disrupting compound was exceeded, and in roughly a third of those streams, the threshold was exceeded for two compounds. We suggest that streams are vulnerable to public wastewater discharge of contaminants under low-flow conditions, at a time when wastewater discharges are likely to be most important for maintaining stream flow for smaller sized river systems.

Flash floods in June and July 2009 in the Czech Republic

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sercl, Petr; Danhelka, Jan; Tyl, Radovan

2010-05-01

Several flash floods occurred in the territory of the Czech Republic during the last decade of June and beginning of July 2009. These events caused vast economic damage and unfortunately there were also 15 fatalities. The complete evaluation of flash floods from the point of view of its meteorological cause, hydrological development and impacts was done under the responsibility of Ministry of Environment of the Czech Republic. Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) coordinated this project. The results of the project contain several concrete proposals to reduce the threat of flash floods in the Czech Republic. The proposals were focused on possible future improvements of CHMI forecasting service activities including all other parts of Flood prevention and protection system in the Czech Republic. The synoptic cause of floods was the extraordinary long (12 days is longest in more than 60 years history) presence of eastern cyclonic situation over the Central Europe bringing warm, moist and unstable air masses from Mediterranean and Black Sea area. Very intensive thunderstorms accompanied by torrential rain occurred almost daily. Storm cells were organized in train effect and crossed repeatedly the same places within several hours. The extremity of the flood events was also influenced by soil saturation due to daily occurrence of rainstorms. The peak flows exceeded significantly 100-year of recurrence time in many sites. The observed and mainly unobserved catchments were affected. The detailed fields of rainfall amounts were gained from the adjusted meteorological radar observation. All of the available rainfall measurements at the climatological and rain gage stations were used for the adjustment. Hydraulic and rainfall-runoff models were used to evaluate the hydrological response. It was proved again, that the outputs from currently used meteorological forecasting models are not sufficient for a reliable local forecast of the strong convective storms and their possible consequences - flash floods. Within the frame of the research project SP/1c4/16/07 "Implementation of new techniques for stream flow forecasting tools" (project period 2007-2011, funded by Ministry of Environment) a forecasting system for the estimation of runoff response to torrential rainfall has been developed. CN value automatic update based on antecedent precipitation is used to estimate possible runoff from storm. Ten minutes radar rainfall estimates and COTREC based nowcasting serve as meteorological input. Results of 2009 events hindcast are presented. It proved the underestimation of rainfall by raw radar data and thus the need for real time adjustment of radar estimates based on rain gauge data. The main output from presented forecasting system is an estimation of flash flood risk. Risk estimation is based on exceeding 3 defined thresholds defined as ratios between the estimated peak flow and theoretical 100-year flood on particular basin. The procedures mentioned above were being developed during the period 2008-2009. Intensive testing is expected by CHMI forecasting offices during 2010-2011.

A system for forecasting and monitoring cash flow : phase I : forecasting payments on construction contracts.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1983-01-01

The research on which this paper is based was performed as part of a study to develop a system for generating a one-to-two year forecast of monthly cash flows for the Virginia Department of Highways and Transportation. It revealed that presently used...

Linear growth rates of resistive tearing modes with sub-Alfvénic streaming flow

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, L. N.; College of Sciences, China Jiliang University, Hangzhou 310018; Ma, Z. W., E-mail: zwma@zju.edu.cn

2014-07-15

The tearing instability with sub-Alfvénic streaming flow along the external magnetic field is investigated using resistive MHD simulation. It is found that the growth rate of the tearing mode instability is larger than that without the streaming flow. With the streaming flow, there exist two Alfvén resonance layers near the central current sheet. The larger perturbation of the magnetic field in two closer Alfvén resonance layers could lead to formation of the observed cone structure and can largely enhance the development of the tearing mode for a narrower streaming flow. For a broader streaming flow, a larger separation of Alfvénmore » resonance layers reduces the magnetic reconnection. The linear growth rate decreases with increase of the streaming flow thickness. The growth rate of the tearing instability also depends on the plasma beta (β). When the streaming flow is embedded in the current sheet, the growth rate increases with β if β < β{sub s}, but decreases if β > β{sub s}. The existence of the specific value β{sub s} can be attributed to competition between the suppressing effect of β and the enhancing effect of the streaming flow on the magnetic reconnection. The critical value β{sub s} increases with increase of the streaming flow strength.« less

Multiple drivers, scales, and interactions influence southern Appalachian stream salamander occupancy

Treesearch

Kristen K. Cecala; John C. Maerz; Brian J. Halstead; John R. Frisch; Ted L. Gragson; Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman; David S. Leigh; C. Rhett Jackson; James T. Peterson; Catherine M. Pringle

2018-01-01

Understanding how factors that vary in spatial scale relate to population abundance is vital to forecasting species responses to environmental change. Stream and river ecosystems are inherently hierarchical, potentially resulting in organismal responses to fine‐scale changes in patch characteristics that are conditional on the watershed context. Here, we...

Influence of observers and stream flow on northern two-lined salamander (Eurycea bislineata bislineata) relative abundance estimates in Acadia and Shenandoah National Parks, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crocker, J.B.; Bank, M.S.; Loftin, C.S.; Jung Brown, R.E.

2007-01-01

We investigated effects of observers and stream flow on Northern Two-Lined Salamander (Eurycea bislineata bislineata) counts in streams in Acadia (ANP) and Shenandoah National Parks (SNP). We counted salamanders in 22 ANP streams during high flow (May to June 2002) and during low flow (July 2002). We also counted salamanders in SNP in nine streams during high flow (summer 2003) and 11 streams during low flow (summers 2001?02, 2004). In 2002, we used a modified cover-controlled active search method with a first and second observer. In succession, observers turned over 100 rocks along five 1-m belt transects across the streambed. The difference between observers in total salamander counts was not significant. We counted fewer E. b. bislineata during high flow conditions, confirming that detection of this species is reduced during high flow periods and that assessment of stream salamander relative abundance is likely more reliable during low or base flow conditions.

Fuzzy Temporal Logic Based Railway Passenger Flow Forecast Model

PubMed Central

Dou, Fei; Jia, Limin; Wang, Li; Xu, Jie; Huang, Yakun

2014-01-01

Passenger flow forecast is of essential importance to the organization of railway transportation and is one of the most important basics for the decision-making on transportation pattern and train operation planning. Passenger flow of high-speed railway features the quasi-periodic variations in a short time and complex nonlinear fluctuation because of existence of many influencing factors. In this study, a fuzzy temporal logic based passenger flow forecast model (FTLPFFM) is presented based on fuzzy logic relationship recognition techniques that predicts the short-term passenger flow for high-speed railway, and the forecast accuracy is also significantly improved. An applied case that uses the real-world data illustrates the precision and accuracy of FTLPFFM. For this applied case, the proposed model performs better than the k-nearest neighbor (KNN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models. PMID:25431586

Spring floods prediction with the use of optical satellite data in Québec

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Roy, A.; Royer, A.; Turcotte, R.

2009-04-01

The Centre d'expertise hydrique du Québec (CEHQ) operates a distributed hydrological model, which integrates a snow model, for the management of dams in the south of Québec. It appears that the estimation of the water quantity of snowmelt in spring remains a variable with a large uncertainty and induces generally to an important error in stream flow simulation. Therefore, the National snow and ice center (NSIDC) produces, from MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) data, continuous and homogeneous spatial snow cover (snow/swow-free) data on the whole territory, but with a cloud contamination. This research aims to improve the prediction of spring floods and the estimation of the rate of discharge by integrating snow cover data in the CEHQ's snow model. The study is done on two watersheds: du Nord river watershed (45,8°N) and Aux Écorces river watershed (47,9°N). The snow model used in the study (SPH-AV) is an implementation developed by the CEHQ of the snowmelt model of HYDROLTEL in is hydrological forecast system to simulate the melted water. The melted water estimated is then used as input in the empirical hydrological model MOHYSE to simulate stream flow. MODIS data are considered valid only when the cloud cover on each pixel of the watersheds is less then 30%. A pixel by pixel correction is applied to the snow pack when there is a difference between satellite snow cover and modeled snow cover. In the case of model shows to much snow, a factor is applied on temperatures by iterative process (starting from the last valid MODIS data) to melt the snow. In the opposite case, the snow quantity added to the last valid MODIS data is found by iterative process so that the pixel's snow water equivalent is equal to the nonzero neighbor minimum value. The study shows, through the simulations done on the two watersheds, the interest of the use of snow/snow-free product for the operational update of snow water equivalent with the objective to improve spring snowmelt stream flow simulations. The binary aspect (snow/snowfree) of the data is however a limit. Alternatives are discussed (passive microwave data). Keywords : satellite snow cover data, MODIS, satellite data integration, snow model, hydrological model, stream flow simulation, flood.

A simple metric to predict stream water quality from storm runoff in an urban watershed.

PubMed

Easton, Zachary M; Sullivan, Patrick J; Walter, M Todd; Fuka, Daniel R; Petrovic, A Martin; Steenhuis, Tammo S

2010-01-01

The contribution of runoff from various land uses to stream channels in a watershed is often speculated and used to underpin many model predictions. However, these contributions, often based on little or no measurements in the watershed, fail to appropriately consider the influence of the hydrologic location of a particular landscape unit in relation to the stream network. A simple model was developed to predict storm runoff and the phosphorus (P) status of a perennial stream in an urban watershed in New York State using the covariance structure of runoff from different landscape units in the watershed to predict runoff in time. One hundred and twenty-seven storm events were divided into parameterization (n = 85) and forecasting (n = 42) data sets. Runoff, dissolved P (DP), and total P (TP) were measured at nine sites distributed among three land uses (high maintenance, unmaintained, wooded), three positions in the watershed (near the outlet, midwatershed, upper watershed), and in the stream at the watershed outlet. The autocorrelation among runoff and P concentrations from the watershed landscape units (n = 9) and the covariance between measurements from the landscape units and measurements from the stream were calculated and used to predict the stream response. Models, validated using leave-one-out cross-validation and a forecasting method, were able to correctly capture temporal trends in streamflow and stream P chemistry (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies, 0.49-0.88). The analysis suggests that the covariance structure was consistent for all models, indicating that the physical processes governing runoff and P loss from these landscape units were stationary in time and that landscapes located in hydraulically active areas have a direct hydraulic link to the stream. This methodology provides insight into the impact of various urban landscape units on stream water quantity and quality.

An Operational Short-Term Forecasting System for Regional Hydropower Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronewold, A.; Labuhn, K. A.; Calappi, T. J.; MacNeil, A.

2017-12-01

The Niagara River is the natural outlet of Lake Erie and drains four of the five Great lakes. The river is used to move commerce and is home to both sport fishing and tourism industries. It also provides nearly 5 million kilowatts of hydropower for approximately 3.9 million homes. Due to a complex international treaty and the necessity of balancing water needs for an extensive tourism industry, the power entities operating on the river require detailed and accurate short-term river flow forecasts to maximize power output. A new forecast system is being evaluated that takes advantage of several previously independent components including the NOAA Lake Erie operational Forecast System (LEOFS), a previously developed HEC-RAS model, input from the New York Power Authority(NYPA) and Ontario Power Generation (OPG) and lateral flow forecasts for some of the tributaries provided by the NOAA Northeast River Forecast Center (NERFC). The Corps of Engineers updated the HEC-RAS model of the upper Niagara River to use the output forcing from LEOFS and a planned Grass Island Pool elevation provided by the power entities. The entire system has been integrated at the NERFC; it will be run multiple times per day with results provided to the Niagara River Control Center operators. The new model helps improve discharge forecasts by better accounting for dynamic conditions on Lake Erie. LEOFS captures seiche events on the lake that are often several meters of displacement from still water level. These seiche events translate into flow spikes that HEC-RAS routes downstream. Knowledge of the peak arrival time helps improve operational decisions at the Grass Island Pool. This poster will compare and contrast results from the existing operational flow forecast and the new integrated LEOFS/HEC-RAS forecast. This additional model will supply the Niagara River Control Center operators with multiple forecasts of flow to help improve forecasting under a wider variety of conditions.

Applying value stream mapping techniques to eliminate non-value-added waste for the procurement of endovascular stents.

PubMed

Teichgräber, Ulf K; de Bucourt, Maximilian

2012-01-01

OJECTIVES: To eliminate non-value-adding (NVA) waste for the procurement of endovascular stents in interventional radiology services by applying value stream mapping (VSM). The Lean manufacturing technique was used to analyze the process of material and information flow currently required to direct endovascular stents from external suppliers to patients. Based on a decision point analysis for the procurement of stents in the hospital, a present state VSM was drawn. After assessment of the current status VSM and progressive elimination of unnecessary NVA waste, a future state VSM was drawn. The current state VSM demonstrated that out of 13 processes for the procurement of stents only 2 processes were value-adding. Out of the NVA processes 5 processes were unnecessary NVA activities, which could be eliminated. The decision point analysis demonstrated that the procurement of stents was mainly a forecast driven push system. The future state VSM applies a pull inventory control system to trigger the movement of a unit after withdrawal by using a consignment stock. VSM is a visualization tool for the supply chain and value stream, based on the Toyota Production System and greatly assists in successfully implementing a Lean system. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process for Missouri Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennen, Jonathan G.; Henriksen, James A.; Heasley, John; Cade, Brian S.; Terrell, James W.

2009-01-01

Natural flow regime concepts and theories have established the justification for maintaining or restoring the range of natural hydrologic variability so that physiochemical processes, native biodiversity, and the evolutionary potential of aquatic and riparian assemblages can be sustained. A synthesis of recent research advances in hydroecology, coupled with stream classification using hydroecologically relevant indices, has produced the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process (HIP). HIP consists of (1) a regional classification of streams into hydrologic stream types based on flow data from long-term gaging-station records for relatively unmodified streams, (2) an identification of stream-type specific indices that address 11 subcomponents of the flow regime, (3) an ability to establish environmental flow standards, (4) an evaluation of hydrologic alteration, and (5) a capacity to conduct alternative analyses. The process starts with the identification of a hydrologic baseline (reference condition) for selected locations, uses flow data from a stream-gage network, and proceeds to classify streams into hydrologic stream types. Concurrently, the analysis identifies a set of non-redundant and ecologically relevant hydrologic indices for 11 subcomponents of flow for each stream type. Furthermore, regional hydrologic models for synthesizing flow conditions across a region and the development of flow-ecology response relations for each stream type can be added to further enhance the process. The application of HIP to Missouri streams identified five stream types ((1) intermittent, (2) perennial runoff-flashy, (3) perennial runoff-moderate baseflow, (4) perennial groundwater-stable, and (5) perennial groundwater-super stable). Two Missouri-specific computer software programs were developed: (1) a Missouri Hydrologic Assessment Tool (MOHAT) which is used to establish a hydrologic baseline, provide options for setting environmental flow standards, and compare past and proposed hydrologic alterations; and (2) a Missouri Stream Classification Tool (MOSCT) designed for placing previously unclassified streams into one of the five pre-defined stream types.

Forecasting the Emergency Department Patients Flow.

PubMed

Afilal, Mohamed; Yalaoui, Farouk; Dugardin, Frédéric; Amodeo, Lionel; Laplanche, David; Blua, Philippe

2016-07-01

Emergency department (ED) have become the patient's main point of entrance in modern hospitals causing it frequent overcrowding, thus hospital managers are increasingly paying attention to the ED in order to provide better quality service for patients. One of the key elements for a good management strategy is demand forecasting. In this case, forecasting patients flow, which will help decision makers to optimize human (doctors, nurses…) and material(beds, boxs…) resources allocation. The main interest of this research is forecasting daily attendance at an emergency department. The study was conducted on the Emergency Department of Troyes city hospital center, France, in which we propose a new practical ED patients classification that consolidate the CCMU and GEMSA categories into one category and innovative time-series based models to forecast long and short term daily attendance. The models we developed for this case study shows very good performances (up to 91,24 % for the annual Total flow forecast) and robustness to epidemic periods.

Controls on streamflow intermittence in the Colorado Front Range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kampf, S. K.; Puntenney, K.; Martin, C.; Weber, R.; Gerlich, J.; Hammond, J. C.; Lefsky, M. A.

2017-12-01

Intermittent streams comprise more than 60% of the channel length in semiarid northern Colorado, yet little is known about their flow magnitude and timing. We used field surveys, stream sensors, and remote sensing to quantify spatial and temporal patterns of streamflow intermittence in the Cache la Poudre basin in 2016-2017. To evaluate potential controls on streamflow intermittence, we delineated the drainage area to each monitored point and quantified the catchment's mean precipitation, temperature, snow persistence, slope, aspect, vegetation type, soil type, and bedrock geology. During the period of study, most streams below 2500 m elevation and <550 mm mean annual precipitation were intermittent, with flow only during the early spring and summer. In these drier low elevation areas, flow duration generally increased with precipitation and snow persistence. Locally, the type of bedrock geology and location of streams relative to faults affected flow duration. Above 2500 m, nearly all streams with drainage areas >1 km2 had perennial flow, whereas nearly all streams with drainage areas <1 km2 had intermittent flow. For the high elevation intermittent streams, stream locations often differed substantially from the locations mapped in standard GIS data products. Initial analyses have identified no clearly quantifiable controls on flow duration of high elevation streams, but field observations indicate subsurface flow paths are important contributors to surface streams.

Using Terrain Analysis and Remote Sensing to Improve Snow Mass Balance and Runoff Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Venteris, E. R.; Coleman, A. M.; Wigmosta, M. S.

2010-12-01

Approximately 70-80% of the water in the international Columbia River basin is sourced from snowmelt. The demand for this water has competing needs, as it is used for agricultural irrigation, municipal, hydro and nuclear power generation, and environmental in-stream flow requirements. Accurate forecasting of water supply is essential for planning current needs and prediction of future demands due to growth and climate change. A significant limitation on current forecasting is spatial and temporal uncertainty in snowpack characteristics, particularly snow water equivalent. Currently, point measurements of snow mass balance are provided by the NRCS SNOTEL network. Each site consists of a snow mass sensor and meteorology station that monitors snow water equivalent, snow depth, precipitation, and temperature. There are currently 152 sites in the mountains of Oregon and Washington. An important step in improving forecasts is determining how representative each SNOTEL site is of the total mass balance of the watershed through a full accounting of the spatiotemporal variability in snowpack processes. This variation is driven by the interaction between meteorological processes, land cover, and landform. Statistical and geostatistical spatial models relate the state of the snowpack (characterized through SNOTEL, snow course measurements, and multispectral remote sensing) to terrain attributes derived from digital elevation models (elevation, aspect, slope, compound topographic index, topographic shading, etc.) and land cover. Time steps representing the progression of the snow season for several meteorologically distinct water years are investigated to identify and quantify dominant physical processes. The spatially distributed snow balance data can be used directly as model inputs to improve short- and long-range hydrologic forecasts.

Decision Support System for Evaluation of Gunnison River Flow Regimes With Respect To Resources of the Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Auble, Gregor T.; Wondzell, Mark; Talbert, Colin

2009-01-01

This report describes and documents a decision support system for the Gunnison River in Black Canyon of the Gunnison National Park. It is a macro-embedded EXCEL program that calculates and displays indicators representing valued characteristics or processes in the Black Canyon based on daily flows of the Gunnison River. The program is designed to easily accept input from downloaded stream gage records or output from the RIVERWARE reservoir operations model being used for the upstream Aspinall Unit. The decision support system is structured to compare as many as eight alternative flow regimes, where each alternative is represented by a daily sequence of at least 20 calendar years of streamflow. Indicators include selected flow statistics, riparian plant community distribution, clearing of box elder by inundation and scour, several measures of sediment mobilization, trout fry habitat, and federal reserved water rights. Calculation of variables representing National Park Service federal reserved water rights requires additional secondary input files pertaining to forecast and actual basin inflows and storage levels in Blue Mesa reservoir. Example input files representing a range of situations including historical, reconstructed natural, and simulated alternative reservoir operations are provided with the software.

Tracing seasonal groundwater contributions to stream flow using a suite of environmental isotopes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pritchard, J. L.; Herczeg, A. L.; Lamontagne, S.

2003-04-01

Groundwater discharge to streams is important for delivering essential solutes to maintain ecosystem health and flow throughout dry seasons. However, managing the groundwater components of stream flow is difficult because several sources of water can contribute, including delayed drainage from bank storage and regional groundwater. In this study we assessed the potential for a variety of environmental tracers to discriminate between different sources of water to stream flow. A case study comparing Cl-, delta O-18 &delta H-2, Rn-222 and 87Sr/86Sr to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of groundwater inputs to stream flow was conducted in the Wollombi Brook Catchment (SE Australia). The objectives were to characterise the three potential sources of water to stream flow (surface water, groundwater from the near-stream sandy alluvial aquifer system, and groundwater from the regional sandstone aquifer system) and estimate their relative contributions to stream discharge at flood recession and baseflow. Surface water was sampled at various locations along the Wollombi Brook and from its tributaries during flood recession (Mar-01) and under baseflow conditions (Oct-01). Alluvial groundwater was sampled from a piezometer network and regional groundwater from deeper bores in the lower to mid-catchment biannually over two years to characterise these potential sources of water to stream flow. Chloride identified specific reaches of the catchment that were either subjected to evaporation or received regional groundwater contributions to stream flow. The water isotopes verified which of these reaches were dominated by evaporation versus groundwater contributions. They also revealed that the predominant sources of water to stream flow during flood recession were either rainfall and storm runoff or regional groundwater, and that during baseflow the predominant source of water to stream flow was alluvial groundwater. Radon showed that there was a greater proportion of groundwater contributing to stream flow in the upper part of the catchment than the lower catchment during both flood recession and baseflow. Strontium isotopes showed that regional groundwater contributed less than 10% to stream flow in all parts of the catchment under baseflow conditions.

A comparative study of artificial neural network, adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system and support vector machine for forecasting river flow in the semiarid mountain region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Zhibin; Wen, Xiaohu; Liu, Hu; Du, Jun

2014-02-01

Data driven models are very useful for river flow forecasting when the underlying physical relationships are not fully understand, but it is not clear whether these data driven models still have a good performance in the small river basin of semiarid mountain regions where have complicated topography. In this study, the potential of three different data driven methods, artificial neural network (ANN), adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and support vector machine (SVM) were used for forecasting river flow in the semiarid mountain region, northwestern China. The models analyzed different combinations of antecedent river flow values and the appropriate input vector has been selected based on the analysis of residuals. The performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models in training and validation sets are compared with the observed data. The model which consists of three antecedent values of flow has been selected as the best fit model for river flow forecasting. To get more accurate evaluation of the results of ANN, ANFIS and SVM models, the four quantitative standard statistical performance evaluation measures, the coefficient of correlation (R), root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) and mean absolute relative error (MARE), were employed to evaluate the performances of various models developed. The results indicate that the performance obtained by ANN, ANFIS and SVM in terms of different evaluation criteria during the training and validation period does not vary substantially; the performance of the ANN, ANFIS and SVM models in river flow forecasting was satisfactory. A detailed comparison of the overall performance indicated that the SVM model performed better than ANN and ANFIS in river flow forecasting for the validation data sets. The results also suggest that ANN, ANFIS and SVM method can be successfully applied to establish river flow with complicated topography forecasting models in the semiarid mountain regions.

Towards Remotely Sensed Composite Global Drought Risk Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dercas, Nicholas; Dalezios, Nicolas

2015-04-01

Drought is a multi-faceted issue and requires a multi-faceted assessment. Droughts may have the origin on precipitation deficits, which sequentially and by considering different time and space scales may impact soil moisture, plant wilting, stream flow, wildfire, ground water levels, famine and social impacts. There is a need to monitor drought even at a global scale. Key variables for monitoring drought include climate data, soil moisture, stream flow, ground water, reservoir and lake levels, snow pack, short-medium-long range forecasts, vegetation health and fire danger. However, there is no single definition of drought and there are different drought indicators and indices even for each drought type. There are already four operational global drought risk monitoring systems, namely the U.S. Drought Monitor, the European Drought Observatory (EDO), the African and the Australian systems, respectively. These systems require further research to improve the level of accuracy, the time and space scales, to consider all types of drought and to achieve operational efficiency, eventually. This paper attempts to contribute to the above mentioned objectives. Based on a similar general methodology, the multi-indicator approach is considered. This has resulted from previous research in the Mediterranean region, an agriculturally vulnerable region, using several drought indices separately, namely RDI and VHI. The proposed scheme attempts to consider different space scaling based on agroclimatic zoning through remotely sensed techniques and several indices. Needless to say, the agroclimatic potential of agricultural areas has to be assessed in order to achieve sustainable and efficient use of natural resources in combination with production maximization. Similarly, the time scale is also considered by addressing drought-related impacts affected by precipitation deficits on time scales ranging from a few days to a few months, such as non-irrigated agriculture, topsoil moisture, wildfire danger, range and pasture conditions and unregulated stream flows. Keywords Remote sensing; Composite Drought Indicators; Global Drought Risk Monitoring.

Increasing synchrony of high temperature and low flow in western North American streams: Double trouble for coldwater biota?

Treesearch

Ivan Arismendi; Mohammad Safeeq; Sherri L. Johnson; Jason B Dunham; Roy Haggerty

2013-01-01

Flow and temperature are strongly linked environmental factors driving ecosystem processes in streams. Stream temperature maxima (Tmax_w) and stream flow minima (Qmin) can create periods of stress for aquatic organisms. In mountainous areas, such as western North America, recent shifts toward an earlier spring peak flow and...

Downstream Warming and Headwater Acidity May Diminish Coldwater Habitat in Southern Appalachian Mountain Streams

Treesearch

T. C. McDonnell; M. R. Sloat; T. J. Sullivan; C. A. Dolloff; P. F. Hessburg; N. A. Povak; W. A Jackson; C. Sams

2015-01-01

Stream-dwelling species in the U.S. southern Appalachian Mountains region are particularly vulnerable to climate change and acidification. The objectives of this study were to quantify the spatial extent of contemporary suitable habitat for acid- and thermally sensitive aquatic species and to forecast future habitat loss resulting from expected temperature increases on...

A Case Study of the Impact of AIRS Temperature Retrievals on Numerical Weather Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Reale, O.; Atlas, R.; Jusem, J. C.

2004-01-01

Large errors in numerical weather prediction are often associated with explosive cyclogenesis. Most studes focus on the under-forecasting error, i.e. cases of rapidly developing cyclones which are poorly predicted in numerical models. However, the over-forecasting error (i.e., to predict an explosively developing cyclone which does not occur in reality) is a very common error that severely impacts the forecasting skill of all models and may also present economic costs if associated with operational forecasting. Unnecessary precautions taken by marine activities can result in severe economic loss. Moreover, frequent occurrence of over-forecasting can undermine the reliance on operational weather forecasting. Therefore, it is important to understand and reduce the prdctions of extreme weather associated with explosive cyclones which do not actually develop. In this study we choose a very prominent case of over-forecasting error in the northwestern Pacific. A 960 hPa cyclone develops in less than 24 hour in the 5-day forecast, with a deepening rate of about 30 hPa in one day. The cyclone is not versed in the analyses and is thus a case of severe over-forecasting. By assimilating AIRS data, the error is largely eliminated. By following the propagation of the anomaly that generates the spurious cyclone, it is found that a small mid-tropospheric geopotential height negative anomaly over the northern part of the Indian subcontinent in the initial conditions, propagates westward, is amplified by orography, and generates a very intense jet streak in the subtropical jet stream, with consequent explosive cyclogenesis over the Pacific. The AIRS assimilation eliminates this anomaly that may have been caused by erroneous upper-air data, and represents the jet stream more correctly. The energy associated with the jet is distributed over a much broader area and as a consequence a multiple, but much more moderate cyclogenesis is observed.

Comparative Analysis of River Flow Modelling by Using Supervised Learning Technique

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ismail, Shuhaida; Mohamad Pandiahi, Siraj; Shabri, Ani; Mustapha, Aida

2018-04-01

The goal of this research is to investigate the efficiency of three supervised learning algorithms for forecasting monthly river flow of the Indus River in Pakistan, spread over 550 square miles or 1800 square kilometres. The algorithms include the Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Wavelet Regression (WR). The forecasting models predict the monthly river flow obtained from the three models individually for river flow data and the accuracy of the all models were then compared against each other. The monthly river flow of the said river has been forecasted using these three models. The obtained results were compared and statistically analysed. Then, the results of this analytical comparison showed that LSSVM model is more precise in the monthly river flow forecasting. It was found that LSSVM has he higher r with the value of 0.934 compared to other models. This indicate that LSSVM is more accurate and efficient as compared to the ANN and WR model.

A system for forecasting and monitoring cash flow : phase II, forecasting federal and state revenues, maintenance contracts, other expenditures, and cash balances.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1985-01-01

The research on which this report is based was performed as part of a study to develop an improved system for generating a two-year forecast of monthly cash flows for the Virginia Department of Highways and Transportation. It revealed that current te...

Developing a top-down land-use management procedure for fish habitat enhancement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chiang, Li-Chi; Lin, Yu-Pin; Wu, Chen-Huan

2013-04-01

Land-use change can influence stream ecosystem and alter instream physical, chemical and biological habitat. For example, urbanization usually contributes to increasing sediment loadings to streams and inappropriate agricultural management results in degradation of stream water quality. Watershed model is an effective way to forecast the watershed response to different land-use change scenarios. We developed a top-down approach from the watershed scale to the microscale by combining the habitat model, land-use change model and watershed hydrological model. This approach can assist land-use planner to make optimal decisions with fish habitat enhancement. The study was conducted in Datuan Stream, located in Tamsui District, New Taipei City and the target species is monk goby (Sicyopterus japonicus). The spatially explicit land-use change model, CLUE-s was first applied to project several future land-use scenarios and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was then applied to simulate streamflow for different land-use scenarios. The simulated streamflow were used as input data for simulating river habitat, where Habitat Suitability Analysis is one of the most important processes. The relationship between target species and multiple environmental factors of habitat was first developed using the Habitat suitability index (HSI). In this study, we used fish presence probabilities for each velocity and water depth to establish different HSI functions under 4 flow conditions (slack, riffle, pool and run) using genetic programming (GP). The physical habitat model, River 2D, was then applied to simulate the river section and calculate weighted usable area (WUA). Based on the WUA results for different land-use scenarios, we further evaluated the relationships between WUA and land-use/landscape patterns using a spatial pattern analysis program, Fragstats. The results showed that by using the habitat model for classified flows, the habitat suitability curve which reflects different activities of fish (ex: spawning, preying) is more practical. Moreover, the proposed land-use management procedure can be useful for future land-use planning with fish habitat conservation.

Roughness, resistance, and dispersion: Relationships in small streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noss, Christian; Lorke, Andreas

2016-04-01

Although relationships between roughness, flow, and transport processes in rivers and streams have been investigated for several decades, the prediction of flow resistance and longitudinal dispersion in small streams is still challenging. Major uncertainties in existing approaches for quantifying flow resistance and longitudinal dispersion at the reach scale arise from limitations in the characterization of riverbed roughness. In this study, we characterized the riverbed roughness in small moderate-gradient streams (0.1-0.5% bed slope) and investigated its effects on flow resistance and dispersion. We analyzed high-resolution transect-based measurements of stream depth and width, which resolved the complete roughness spectrum with scales ranging from the micro to the reach scale. Independently measured flow resistance and dispersion coefficients were mainly affected by roughness at spatial scales between the median grain size and the stream width, i.e., by roughness between the micro- and the mesoscale. We also compared our flow resistance measurements with calculations using various flow resistance equations. Flow resistance in our study streams was well approximated by the equations that were developed for high gradient streams (>1%) and it was overestimated by approaches developed for sand-bed streams with a smooth riverbed or ripple bed. This article was corrected on 10 MAY 2016. See the end of the full text for details.

Optimized Structure of the Traffic Flow Forecasting Model With a Deep Learning Approach.

PubMed

Yang, Hao-Fan; Dillon, Tharam S; Chen, Yi-Ping Phoebe

2017-10-01

Forecasting accuracy is an important issue for successful intelligent traffic management, especially in the domain of traffic efficiency and congestion reduction. The dawning of the big data era brings opportunities to greatly improve prediction accuracy. In this paper, we propose a novel model, stacked autoencoder Levenberg-Marquardt model, which is a type of deep architecture of neural network approach aiming to improve forecasting accuracy. The proposed model is designed using the Taguchi method to develop an optimized structure and to learn traffic flow features through layer-by-layer feature granulation with a greedy layerwise unsupervised learning algorithm. It is applied to real-world data collected from the M6 freeway in the U.K. and is compared with three existing traffic predictors. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first time that an optimized structure of the traffic flow forecasting model with a deep learning approach is presented. The evaluation results demonstrate that the proposed model with an optimized structure has superior performance in traffic flow forecasting.

Strong wave/mean-flow coupling in baroclinic acoustic streaming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chini, Greg; Michel, Guillaume

2017-11-01

Recently, Chini et al. demonstrated the potential for large-amplitude acoustic streaming in compressible channel flows subjected to strong background cross-channel density variations. In contrast with classic Rayleigh streaming, standing acoustic waves of O (ɛ) amplitude acquire vorticity owing to baroclinic torques acting throughout the domain rather than via viscous torques acting in Stokes boundary layers. More significantly, these baroclinically-driven streaming flows have a magnitude that also is O (ɛ) , i.e. comparable to that of the sound waves. In the present study, the consequent potential for fully two-way coupling between the waves and streaming flows is investigated using a novel WKBJ analysis. The analysis confirms that the wave-driven streaming flows are sufficiently strong to modify the background density gradient, thereby modifying the leading-order acoustic wave structure. Simulations of the wave/mean-flow system enabled by the WKBJ analysis are performed to illustrate the nature of the two-way coupling, which contrasts sharply with classic Rayleigh streaming, for which the waves can first be determined and the streaming flows subsequently computed.

Estimation of snow and glacier melt contribution to Liddar stream in a mountainous catchment, western Himalaya: an isotopic approach.

PubMed

Jeelani, Gh; Shah, Rouf A; Jacob, Noble; Deshpande, Rajendrakumar D

2017-03-01

Snow- and glacier-dominated catchments in the Himalayas are important sources of fresh water to more than one billion people. However, the contribution of snowmelt and glacier melt to stream flow remains largely unquantified in most parts of the Himalayas. We used environmental isotopes and geochemical tracers to determine the source water and flow paths of stream flow draining the snow- and glacier-dominated mountainous catchment of the western Himalaya. The study suggested that the stream flow in the spring season is dominated by the snowmelt released from low altitudes and becomes isotopically depleted as the melt season progressed. The tracer-based mixing models suggested that snowmelt contributed a significant proportion (5-66 %) to stream flow throughout the year with the maximum contribution in spring and summer seasons (from March to July). In 2013 a large and persistent snowpack contributed significantly (∼51 %) to stream flow in autumn (September and October) as well. The average annual contribution of glacier melt to stream flow is little (5 %). However, the monthly contribution of glacier melt to stream flow reaches up to 19 % in September during years of less persistent snow pack.

Documentation of a computer program to simulate stream-aquifer relations using a modular, finite-difference, ground-water flow model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prudic, David E.

1989-01-01

Computer models are widely used to simulate groundwater flow for evaluating and managing the groundwater resource of many aquifers, but few are designed to also account for surface flow in streams. A computer program was written for use in the US Geological Survey modular finite difference groundwater flow model to account for the amount of flow in streams and to simulate the interaction between surface streams and groundwater. The new program is called the Streamflow-Routing Package. The Streamflow-Routing Package is not a true surface water flow model, but rather is an accounting program that tracks the flow in one or more streams which interact with groundwater. The program limits the amount of groundwater recharge to the available streamflow. It permits two or more streams to merge into one with flow in the merged stream equal to the sum of the tributary flows. The program also permits diversions from streams. The groundwater flow model with the Streamflow-Routing Package has an advantage over the analytical solution in simulating the interaction between aquifer and stream because it can be used to simulate complex systems that cannot be readily solved analytically. The Streamflow-Routing Package does not include a time function for streamflow but rather streamflow entering the modeled area is assumed to be instantly available to downstream reaches during each time period. This assumption is generally reasonable because of the relatively slow rate of groundwater flow. Another assumption is that leakage between streams and aquifers is instantaneous. This assumption may not be reasonable if the streams and aquifers are separated by a thick unsaturated zone. Documentation of the Streamflow-Routing Package includes data input instructions; flow charts, narratives, and listings of the computer program for each of four modules; and input data sets and printed results for two test problems, and one example problem. (Lantz-PTT)

Forecasting the combined effects of urbanization and climate change on stream ecosystems: from impacts to management options

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nelson, Kären C.; Palmer, Margaret A.; Pizzuto, James E.; Moglen, Glenn E.; Angermeier, Paul L.; Hilderbrand, Robert H.; Dettinger, Mike; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Synthesis and applications. The interaction of climate change and urban growth may entail significant reconfiguring of headwater streams, including a loss of ecosystem structure and services, which will be more costly than climate change alone. On local scales, stakeholders cannot control climate drivers but they can mitigate stream impacts via careful land use. Therefore, to conserve stream ecosystems, we recommend that proactive measures be taken to insure against species loss or severe population declines. Delays will inevitably exacerbate the impacts of both climate change and urbanization on headwater systems.

Regionalization of winter low-flow characteristics of Tennessee streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bingham, R.H.

1986-01-01

Procedures were developed for estimating winter (December-April) low flows at ungaged stream sites in Tennessee based on surface geology and drainage area size. One set of equations applies to West Tennessee streams, and another set applies to Middle and East Tennessee streams. The equations do not apply to streams where flow is significantly altered by the activities of man. Standard errors of estimate of equations for West Tennessee are 22% - 35% and for middle and East Tennessee 31% - 36%. Statistical analyses indicate that summer low-flow characteristics are the same as annual low-flow characteristics, and that winter low flows are larger than annual low flows. Streamflow-recession indexes, in days per log cycle of decrease in discharge, were used to account for effects of geology on low flow of streams. The indexes in Tennessee range from 32 days/log cycle for clay and shale to 350 days/log cycle for gravel and sand, indicating different aquifer characteristics of the geologic units that contribute to streamflows during periods of no surface runoff. Streamflow-recession rate depends primarily on transmissivity and storage characteristics of the aquifers, and the average distance from stream channels to basin divides. Geology and drainage basin size are the most significant variables affecting low flow in Tennessee streams according to regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

Variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flows with large-scale climate signals in the Omo-Ghibe River Basin, Ethiopia.

PubMed

Degefu, Mekonnen Adnew; Bewket, Woldeamlak

2017-04-01

This study assesses variability, trends, and teleconnections of stream flow with large-scale climate signals (global sea surface temperatures (SSTs)) for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin of Ethiopia. Fourteen hydrological indices of variability and extremes were defined from daily stream flow data series and analyzed for two common periods, which are 1972-2006 for 5 stations and 1982-2006 for 15 stations. The Mann-Kendall's test was used to detect trends at 0.05 significance level, and simple correlation analysis was applied to evaluate associations between the selected stream flow indices and SSTs. We found weak and mixed (upward and downward) trend signals for annual and wet (Kiremt) season flows. Indices generated for high-flow (flood) magnitudes showed the same weak trend signals. However, trend tests for flood frequencies and low-flow magnitudes showed little evidences of increasing change. It was also found that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are the major anomalies affecting stream flow variability in the Omo-Ghibe Basin. The strongest associations are observed between ENSO/Niño3.4 and the stream flow in August and September, mean Kiremt flow (July-September), and flood frequency (peak over threshold on average three peaks per year (POT3_Fre)). The findings of this study provide a general overview on the long-term stream flow variability and predictability of stream flows for the Omo-Ghibe River Basin.

Coastal fog frequency and watershed recharge metrics for coho salmon conservation recovery

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torregrosa, A.; Flint, L. E.; Flint, A. L.

2015-12-01

Endangered Central California Coast coho salmon benefit from summertime occurrences of fog and low cloud cover (FLCC). Watershed hydrology is a critical factor affecting population dynamics of coho and FLCC affects this in three ways. First, streams remain cooler in late summer when shaded by FLCC—high temperatures are lethal to coho. Second, more water reaches the stream when FLCC shades riparian vegetation thereby reducing evapotranspiration. Third, fog drip adds water directly into streams. The increased stream flow can be a critical resource in late summer when coastal watersheds are at their lowest subsurface discharge rate. Associated low stream flows can trap juvenile coho in pools, resulting in high rates of mortality due to higher predation exposure, overheating and, if the pool dries up, lack of habitat. The 2012 National Marine Fisheries Service Final Recovery Plan identified 75 watersheds that historically supported coho salmon. The recovery team used biological and environmental metrics to identify subwatersheds where recovery action implementation had the highest probability of improving coho salmon population survival. These subwatersheds were classified into three categories: Core (n=89), Phase I (n=93), or Phase II (N=157) (CPP). Differences among the CPP-rated subwatersheds were explored using FLCC frequency data, derived from a decade of hourly weather satellites, combined with groundwater recharge metrics from the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) to provide additional environmental dimensions. Average summertime (June, July, August, and September) FLCC in the subwatersheds ranged from 2.2 -11.3 hrs/day and cumulative groundwater recharge ranged from 6 mm -894 mm. A two dimensional scatterplot (x = FLCC; y = recharge) of subwatersheds divided into 4 quadrants , (low FLCC - low recharge, low - high, high - low, high - high, ) shows 11 Core, 6 Phase I, and 5 Phase II areas in the high - high quadrant. The majority of Phase I and II areas are in the low - low quadrant whereas the majority of Core areas are in low - high. Future conditions will impact the capacity of these subwatershed areas to continue to support coho population. FLCC metrics for interannual variation and future forecasts of recharge and air temperatures were used to analyze the difference in capacity (resilience) among areas.

Comprehensive Flood Plain Studies Using Spatial Data Management Techniques.

DTIC Science & Technology

1978-06-01

Hydrologic Engineer- ing Center computer programs that forecast urban storm water quality and dynamic in- stream water quality response to waste...determination. Water Quality The water quality analysis planned for the pilot study includes urban storm water quality forecasting and in-streamn...analysis is performed under the direction of Tony Thomas. Chief, Research Branch, by Jess Abbott for storm water quality analysis, R. G. Willey for

Constraints upon the Response of Fish and Crayfish to Environmental Flow Releases in a Regulated Headwater Stream Network

PubMed Central

Chester, Edwin T.; Matthews, Ty G.; Howson, Travis J.; Johnston, Kerrylyn; Mackie, Jonathon K.; Strachan, Scott R.; Robson, Belinda J.

2014-01-01

In dry climate zones, headwater streams are often regulated for water extraction causing intermittency in perennial streams and prolonged drying in intermittent streams. Regulation thereby reduces aquatic habitat downstream of weirs that also form barriers to migration by stream fauna. Environmental flow releases may restore streamflow in rivers, but are rarely applied to headwaters. We sampled fish and crayfish in four regulated headwater streams before and after the release of summer-autumn environmental flows, and in four nearby unregulated streams, to determine whether their abundances increased in response to flow releases. Historical data of fish and crayfish occurrence spanning a 30 year period was compared with contemporary data (electrofishing surveys, Victoria Range, Australia; summer 2008 to summer 2010) to assess the longer–term effects of regulation and drought. Although fish were recorded in regulated streams before 1996, they were not recorded in the present study upstream or downstream of weirs despite recent flow releases. Crayfish (Geocharax sp. nov. 1) remained in the regulated streams throughout the study, but did not become more abundant in response to flow releases. In contrast, native fish (Gadopsis marmoratus, Galaxias oliros, Galaxias maculatus) and crayfish remained present in unregulated streams, despite prolonged drought conditions during 2006–2010, and the assemblages of each of these streams remained essentially unchanged over the 30 year period. Flow release volumes may have been too small or have operated for an insufficient time to allow fish to recolonise regulated streams. Barriers to dispersal may also be preventing recolonisation. Indefinite continuation of annual flow releases, that prevent the unnatural cessation of flow caused by weirs, may eventually facilitate upstream movement of fish and crayfish in regulated channels; but other human–made dispersal barriers downstream need to be identified and ameliorated, to allow native fish to fulfil their life cycles in these headwater streams. PMID:24647407

Classification of California streams using combined deductive and inductive approaches: Setting the foundation for analysis of hydrologic alteration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pyne, Matthew I.; Carlisle, Daren M.; Konrad, Christopher P.; Stein, Eric D.

2017-01-01

Regional classification of streams is an early step in the Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration framework. Many stream classifications are based on an inductive approach using hydrologic data from minimally disturbed basins, but this approach may underrepresent streams from heavily disturbed basins or sparsely gaged arid regions. An alternative is a deductive approach, using watershed climate, land use, and geomorphology to classify streams, but this approach may miss important hydrological characteristics of streams. We classified all stream reaches in California using both approaches. First, we used Bayesian and hierarchical clustering to classify reaches according to watershed characteristics. Streams were clustered into seven classes according to elevation, sedimentary rock, and winter precipitation. Permutation-based analysis of variance and random forest analyses were used to determine which hydrologic variables best separate streams into their respective classes. Stream typology (i.e., the class that a stream reach is assigned to) is shaped mainly by patterns of high and mean flow behavior within the stream's landscape context. Additionally, random forest was used to determine which hydrologic variables best separate minimally disturbed reference streams from non-reference streams in each of the seven classes. In contrast to stream typology, deviation from reference conditions is more difficult to detect and is largely defined by changes in low-flow variables, average daily flow, and duration of flow. Our combined deductive/inductive approach allows us to estimate flow under minimally disturbed conditions based on the deductive analysis and compare to measured flow based on the inductive analysis in order to estimate hydrologic change.

A simple Lagrangian forecast system with aviation forecast potential

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petersen, R. A.; Homan, J. H.

1983-01-01

A trajectory forecast procedure is developed which uses geopotential tendency fields obtained from a simple, multiple layer, potential vorticity conservative isentropic model. This model can objectively account for short-term advective changes in the mass field when combined with fine-scale initial analyses. This procedure for producing short-term, upper-tropospheric trajectory forecasts employs a combination of a detailed objective analysis technique, an efficient mass advection model, and a diagnostically proven trajectory algorithm, none of which require extensive computer resources. Results of initial tests are presented, which indicate an exceptionally good agreement for trajectory paths entering the jet stream and passing through an intensifying trough. It is concluded that this technique not only has potential for aiding in route determination, fuel use estimation, and clear air turbulence detection, but also provides an example of the types of short range forecasting procedures which can be applied at local forecast centers using simple algorithms and a minimum of computer resources.

Modeled intermittency risk for small streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin under climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Shafroth, Patrick B.; Poff, N. LeRoy

2015-01-01

Longer, drier summers projected for arid and semi-arid regions of western North America under climate change are likely to have enormous consequences for water resources and river-dependent ecosystems. Many climate change scenarios for this region involve decreases in mean annual streamflow, late summer precipitation and late-summer streamflow in the coming decades. Intermittent streams are already common in this region, and it is likely that minimum flows will decrease and some perennial streams will shift to intermittent flow under climate-driven changes in timing and magnitude of precipitation and runoff, combined with increases in temperature. To understand current intermittency among streams and analyze the potential for streams to shift from perennial to intermittent under a warmer climate, we analyzed historic flow records from streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). Approximately two-thirds of 115 gaged stream reaches included in our analysis are currently perennial and the rest have some degree of intermittency. Dry years with combinations of high temperatures and low precipitation were associated with more zero-flow days. Mean annual flow was positively related to minimum flows, suggesting that potential future declines in mean annual flows will correspond with declines in minimum flows. The most important landscape variables for predicting low flow metrics were precipitation, percent snow, potential evapotranspiration, soils, and drainage area. Perennial streams in the UCRB that have high minimum-flow variability and low mean flows are likely to be most susceptible to increasing streamflow intermittency in the future.

Daily River Flow Forecasting with Hybrid Support Vector Machine – Particle Swarm Optimization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaini, N.; Malek, M. A.; Yusoff, M.; Mardi, N. H.; Norhisham, S.

2018-04-01

The application of artificial intelligence techniques for river flow forecasting can further improve the management of water resources and flood prevention. This study concerns the development of support vector machine (SVM) based model and its hybridization with particle swarm optimization (PSO) to forecast short term daily river flow at Upper Bertam Catchment located in Cameron Highland, Malaysia. Ten years duration of historical rainfall, antecedent river flow data and various meteorology parameters data from 2003 to 2012 are used in this study. Four SVM based models are proposed which are SVM1, SVM2, SVM-PSO1 and SVM-PSO2 to forecast 1 to 7 day ahead of river flow. SVM1 and SVM-PSO1 are the models with historical rainfall and antecedent river flow as its input, while SVM2 and SVM-PSO2 are the models with historical rainfall, antecedent river flow data and additional meteorological parameters as input. The performances of the proposed model are measured in term of RMSE and R2 . It is found that, SVM2 outperformed SVM1 and SVM-PSO2 outperformed SVM-PSO1 which meant the additional meteorology parameters used as input to the proposed models significantly affect the model performances. Hybrid models SVM-PSO1 and SVM-PSO2 yield higher performances as compared to SVM1 and SVM2. It is found that hybrid models are more effective in forecasting river flow at 1 to 7 day ahead at the study area.

Applications of TRMM-based Multi-Satellite Precipitation Estimation for Global Runoff Simulation: Prototyping a Global Flood Monitoring System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hong, Yang; Adler, Robert F.; Huffman, George J.; Pierce, Harold

2008-01-01

Advances in flood monitoring/forecasting have been constrained by the difficulty in estimating rainfall continuously over space (catchment-, national-, continental-, or even global-scale areas) and flood-relevant time scale. With the recent availability of satellite rainfall estimates at fine time and space resolution, this paper describes a prototype research framework for global flood monitoring by combining real-time satellite observations with a database of global terrestrial characteristics through a hydrologically relevant modeling scheme. Four major components included in the framework are (1) real-time precipitation input from NASA TRMM-based Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA); (2) a central geospatial database to preprocess the land surface characteristics: water divides, slopes, soils, land use, flow directions, flow accumulation, drainage network etc.; (3) a modified distributed hydrological model to convert rainfall to runoff and route the flow through the stream network in order to predict the timing and severity of the flood wave, and (4) an open-access web interface to quickly disseminate flood alerts for potential decision-making. Retrospective simulations for 1998-2006 demonstrate that the Global Flood Monitor (GFM) system performs consistently at both station and catchment levels. The GFM website (experimental version) has been running at near real-time in an effort to offer a cost-effective solution to the ultimate challenge of building natural disaster early warning systems for the data-sparse regions of the world. The interactive GFM website shows close-up maps of the flood risks overlaid on topography/population or integrated with the Google-Earth visualization tool. One additional capability, which extends forecast lead-time by assimilating QPF into the GFM, also will be implemented in the future.

Assessing the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in sixteen French catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crochemore, Louise; Ramos, Maria-Helena; Pappenberger, Florian

2015-04-01

Meteorological centres make sustained efforts to provide seasonal forecasts that are increasingly skilful. Streamflow forecasting is one of the many applications than can benefit from these efforts. Seasonal flow forecasts generated using seasonal ensemble precipitation forecasts as input to a hydrological model can help to take anticipatory measures for water supply reservoir operation or drought risk management. The objective of the study is to assess the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in France. First, we evaluated the skill of ECMWF SYS4 seasonal precipitation forecasts for streamflow forecasting in sixteen French catchments. Daily flow forecasts were produced using raw seasonal precipitation forecasts as input to the GR6J hydrological model. Ensemble forecasts are issued every month with 15 or 51 members according to the month of the year and evaluated for up to 90 days ahead. In a second step, we applied eight variants of bias correction approaches to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the flow forecasts. The approaches were based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods. The skill of the ensemble forecasts was assessed in accuracy (MAE), reliability (PIT Diagram) and overall performance (CRPS). The results show that, in most catchments, raw seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts are more skilful in terms of accuracy and overall performance than a reference prediction based on historic observed precipitation and watershed initial conditions at the time of forecast. Reliability is the only attribute that is not significantly improved. The skill of the forecasts is, in general, improved when applying bias correction. Two bias correction methods showed the best performance for the studied catchments: the simple linear scaling of monthly values and the empirical distribution mapping of daily values. L. Crochemore is funded by the Interreg IVB DROP Project (Benefit of governance in DROught adaPtation).

Stream-Groundwater Interactions Along Streams of the Eastern Sierra Nevada, California: Implications for Assessing Potential Impacts of Flow Diversions

Treesearch

G. Mathias Kondolf

1989-01-01

One of the most fundamental hydrologic determinations to be made in assessing the probable impacts of flow diversions on riparian vegetation is whether flows are gaining or losing water to groundwater in the reach of interest. Flow measurements on eight streams in the Owens River and Mono Lake basins show that stream- groundwater interactions can produce substantial...

Low-flow profiles of the Tallapoosa River and tributaries in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, R.F.; Hopkins, E.H.; Perlman, H.A.

1988-01-01

Low flow information is provided for use in an evaluation of the capacity of streams to permit withdrawals or to accept waste loads without exceeding the limits of State water quality standards. The report is the fourth in a series of reports presenting the results of a low flow study of all stream basins north of the Fall Line in Georgia. This report covers the part of the Tallapoosa River basin in the Piedmont province of Georgia. The low flow characteristic presented is the minimum average flow for 7 consecutive days with a 10-year recurrence interval (7Q10). The data are presented in tables and shown graphically as ' low flow profiles ' (low flow plotted against distance along a stream channel), and as ' drainage area profiles ' (drainage area plotted against distance along a stream channel). Low flow profiles were constructed by interpolation or extrapolation from points of known low flow data. Low flow profiles are included for all stream reaches where low flow data of sufficient accuracy are available to justify computation of the profiles. Drainage area profiles are included for all stream basins > 5 sq mi, except for those in a few remote areas. Flow records were not adjusted for diversions or other factors that cause measured flows to represent conditions other than natural flow. (Author 's abstract)

Ice Flow in the North East Greenland Ice Stream

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joughin, Ian; Kwok, Ron; Fahnestock, M.; MacAyeal, Doug

1999-01-01

Early observations with ERS-1 SAR image data revealed a large ice stream in North East Greenland (Fahnestock 1993). The ice stream has a number of the characteristics of the more closely studied ice streams in Antarctica, including its large size and gross geometry. The onset of rapid flow close to the ice divide and the evolution of its flow pattern, however, make this ice stream unique. These features can be seen in the balance velocities for the ice stream (Joughin 1997) and its outlets. The ice stream is identifiable for more than 700 km, making it much longer than any other flow feature in Greenland. Our research goals are to gain a greater understanding of the ice flow in the northeast Greenland ice stream and its outlet glaciers in order to assess their impact on the past, present, and future mass balance of the ice sheet. We will accomplish these goals using a combination of remotely sensed data and ice sheet models. We are using satellite radar interferometry data to produce a complete maps of velocity and topography over the entire ice stream. We are in the process of developing methods to use these data in conjunction with existing ice sheet models similar to those that have been used to improve understanding of the mechanics of flow in Antarctic ice streams.

Evaluation of Topographic wetness index and catchment characteristics on spatially and temporally variable streams across an elevation gradient

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, C.

2017-12-01

Topography can be used to delineate streams and quantify the topographic control on hydrological processes of a watershed because geomorphologic processes have shaped the topography and streams of a catchment over time. Topographic Wetness index (TWI) is a common index used for delineating stream networks by predicting location of saturation excess overland flow, but is also used for other physical attributes of a watershed such as soil moisture, groundwater level, and vegetation patterns. This study evaluates how well TWI works across an elevation gradient and the relationships between the active drainage network of four headwater watersheds at various elevations in the Colorado Front Range to topography, geology, climate, soils, elevation, and vegetation in attempt to determine the controls on streamflow location and duration. The results suggest that streams prefer to flow along a path of least resistance which including faults and permeable lithology. Permeable lithologies created more connectivity of stream networks during higher flows but during lower flows dried up. Streams flowing over impermeable lithologies had longer flow duration. Upslope soil hydraulic conductivity played a role on stream location, where soils with low hydraulic conductivity had longer flow duration than soils with higher hydraulic conductivity.Finally TWI thresholds ranged from 5.95 - 10.3 due to changes in stream length and to factors such as geology and soil. TWI had low accuracy for the lowest elevation site due to the greatest change of stream length. In conclusion, structural geology, upslope soil texture, and the permeability of the underlying lithology influenced where the stream was flowing and for how long. Elevation determines climate which influences the hydrologic processes occurring at the watersheds and therefore affects the duration and timing of streams at different elevations. TWI is an adequate tool for delineating streams because results suggest topography has a primary control on the stream locations, but because intermittent streams change throughout the year a algorithm needs to be created to correspond to snow melt and rain events. Also geology indices and soil indices need be considered in addition to topography to have the most accurate derived stream network.

Low-flow profiles of the Tennessee River tributaries in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, R.F.; Hopkins, E.H.; Perlman, H.A.

1988-01-01

Low flow information is provided for use in an evaluation of the capacity of streams to permit withdrawals or to accept waste loads without exceeding the limits of State water quality standards. The purpose of this report is to present the results of a compilation of available low flow data in the form of tables and ' 7Q10 flow profiles ' (minimum average flow for 7 consecutive days with a 10-yr recurrence interval) (7Q10 flow plotted against distance along a stream channel) for all stream reaches of the Tennessee River tributaries where sufficient data of acceptable accuracy are available. Drainage area profiles are included for all stream basins larger than 5 sq mi, except for those in a few remote areas. This report is the fifth in a series of reports that will cover all stream basins north of the Fall Line in Georgia. It includes the parts of the Tennessee River basin in Georgia. Flow records were not adjusted for diversions or other factors that cause measured flows to represent other than natural flow conditions. The 7-day minimum flow profile was omitted for stream reaches where natural flow was known to be altered significantly. (Lantz-PTT)

Stream Intermittency Sensors Monitor the Onset and Duration of Stream Flow Along a Channel Network During Storms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, C.; McGuire, K. J.

2017-12-01

Headwater streams are spatially extensive, accounting for a majority of global stream length, and supply downstream water bodies with water, sediment, organic matter, and pollutants. Much of this transmission occurs episodically during storms when stream flow and connectivity are high. Many headwaters are temporary streams that expand and contract in length in response to storms and seasonality. Understanding where and when streams carry flow is critical for conserving headwaters and protecting downstream water quality, but storm events are difficult to study in small catchments. The rise and fall of stream flow occurs rapidly in headwaters, making observation of the entire stream network difficult. Stream intermittency sensors that detect the presence or absence of water can reveal wetting and drying patterns over short time scales. We installed 50 intermittency sensors along the channel network of a small catchment (35 ha) in the Valley and Ridge of southwest Virginia. Previous work shows stream length is highly variable in this shale catchment, as the drainage density spans two orders of magnitude. The sensors record data every 15 minutes for one year to capture different seasons, antecedent moisture conditions, and precipitation rates. We seek to determine whether hysteresis between stream flow and network length occurs on the rising and falling limbs of events and if reach-scale characteristics such as valley width explain spatial patterns of flow duration. Our results indicate reaches with a wide, sediment-filled valley floor carry water for shorter periods of time than confined channel segments with steep valley side slopes. During earlier field mapping surveys, we only observed flow in a few of the tributaries for the wettest conditions mapped. The sensors now show that these tributaries flow more frequently during much smaller storms, but only for brief periods of time (< 1 hour). The high temporal sampling resolution of the sensors permits a more realistic estimate of flow duration in temporary streams, which field surveys may, otherwise, underestimate. Such continuous datasets on stream network length will allow researchers to more accurately assess the value of headwater reaches for contributions to environmental services such as aquatic habitat, hyporheic exchange, and mass fluxes of solutes.

Multiple drivers, scales, and interactions influence southern Appalachian stream salamander occupancy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cecala, Kristen K.; Maerz, John C.; Halstead, Brian J.; Frisch, John R.; Gragson, Ted L.; Hepinstall-Cymerman, Jeffrey; Leigh, David S.; Jackson, C. Rhett; Peterson, James T.; Pringle, Catherine M.

2018-01-01

Understanding how factors that vary in spatial scale relate to population abundance is vital to forecasting species responses to environmental change. Stream and river ecosystems are inherently hierarchical, potentially resulting in organismal responses to fine‐scale changes in patch characteristics that are conditional on the watershed context. Here, we address how populations of two salamander species are affected by interactions among hierarchical processes operating at different scales within a rapidly changing landscape of the southern Appalachian Mountains. We modeled reach‐level occupancy of larval and adult black‐bellied salamanders (Desmognathus quadramaculatus) and larval Blue Ridge two‐lined salamanders (Eurycea wilderae) as a function of 17 different terrestrial and aquatic predictor variables that varied in spatial extent. We found that salamander occurrence varied widely among streams within fully forested catchments, but also exhibited species‐specific responses to changes in local conditions. While D. quadramaculatus declined predictably in relation to losses in forest cover, larval occupancy exhibited the strongest negative response to forest loss as well as decreases in elevation. Conversely, occupancy of E. wilderae was unassociated with watershed conditions, only responding negatively to higher proportions of fast‐flowing stream habitat types. Evaluation of hierarchical relationships demonstrated that most fine‐scale variables were closely correlated with broad watershed‐scale variables, suggesting that local reach‐scale factors have relatively smaller effects within the context of the larger landscape. Our results imply that effective management of southern Appalachian stream salamanders must first focus on the larger scale condition of watersheds before management of local‐scale conditions should proceed. Our findings confirm the results of some studies while refuting the results of others, which may indicate that prescriptive recommendations for range‐wide management of species or the application of a single management focus across large geographic areas is inappropriate.

The FAST-T approach for operational, real time, short term hydrological forecasting: Results from the Betania Hydropower Reservoir case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domínguez, Efraín; Angarita, Hector; Rosmann, Thomas; Mendez, Zulma; Angulo, Gustavo

2013-04-01

A viable quantitative hydrological forecasting service is a combination of technological elements, personnel and knowledge, working together to establish a stable operational cycle of forecasts emission, dissemination and assimilation; hence, the process for establishing such system usually requires significant resources and time to reach an adequate development and integration in order to produce forecasts with acceptable levels of performance. Here are presented the results of this process for the recently implemented Operational Forecast Service for the Betania's Hydropower Reservoir - or SPHEB, located at the Upper-Magdalena River Basin (Colombia). The current scope of the SPHEB includes forecasting of water levels and discharge for the three main streams affluent to the reservoir, for lead times between +1 to +57 hours, and +1 to +10 days. The core of the SPHEB is the Flexible, Adaptive, Simple and Transient Time forecasting approach, namely FAST-T. This comprises of a set of data structures, mathematical kernel, distributed computing and network infrastructure designed to provide seamless real-time operational forecast and automatic model adjustment in case of failures in data transmission or assimilation. Among FAST-T main features are: an autonomous evaluation and detection of the most relevant information for the later configuration of forecasting models; an adaptively linearized mathematical kernel, the optimal adaptive linear combination or OALC, which provides a computationally simple and efficient algorithm for real-time applications; and finally, a meta-model catalog, containing prioritized forecast models at given stream conditions. The SPHEB is at present feed by the fraction of hydrological monitoring network installed at the basin that has telemetric capabilities via NOAA-GOES satellites (8 stages, approximately 47%) with data availability of about a 90% at one hour intervals. However, there is a dense network of 'conventional' hydro-meteorological stages -read manually once or twice per day - that, despite not ideal in the context of real-time system, improve model performance significantly, and therefore are entered into the system by manual input. At its current configuration, the SPHEB performance objectives are fulfilled for 90% of the forecasts with lead times up to +2 days and +15 hours (using the predictability criteria of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center S/?Δ) and the average accuracy is in the range 70-99% ( r2 criteria). However, longer lead times are at present not satisfactory in terms of forecasts accuracy.

Distant Influence of Kuroshio Eddies on North Pacific Weather Patterns?

PubMed Central

Ma, Xiaohui; Chang, Ping; Saravanan, R.; Montuoro, Raffaele; Hsieh, Jen-Shan; Wu, Dexing; Lin, Xiaopei; Wu, Lixin; Jing, Zhao

2015-01-01

High-resolution satellite measurements of surface winds and sea-surface temperature (SST) reveal strong coupling between meso-scale ocean eddies and near-surface atmospheric flow over eddy-rich oceanic regions, such as the Kuroshio and Gulf Stream, highlighting the importance of meso-scale oceanic features in forcing the atmospheric planetary boundary layer (PBL). Here, we present high-resolution regional climate modeling results, supported by observational analyses, demonstrating that meso-scale SST variability, largely confined in the Kuroshio-Oyashio confluence region (KOCR), can further exert a significant distant influence on winter rainfall variability along the U.S. Northern Pacific coast. The presence of meso-scale SST anomalies enhances the diabatic conversion of latent heat energy to transient eddy energy, intensifying winter cyclogenesis via moist baroclinic instability, which in turn leads to an equivalent barotropic downstream anticyclone anomaly with reduced rainfall. The finding points to the potential of improving forecasts of extratropical winter cyclones and storm systems and projections of their response to future climate change, which are known to have major social and economic impacts, by improving the representation of ocean eddy–atmosphere interaction in forecast and climate models. PMID:26635077

Conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water for irrigated agriculture: Risk aversion

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bredehoeft, John D.; Young, Richard A.

1983-01-01

In examining the South Platte system in Colorado where surface water and groundwater are used conjunctively for irrigation, we find the actual installed well capacity is approximately sufficient to irrigate the entire area. This would appear to be an overinvestment in well capacity. In this paper we examine to what extent groundwater is being developed as insurance against periods of low streamflow. Using a simulation model which couples the hydrology of a conjunctive stream aquifer system to a behavioral-economic model which incorporates farmer behavior in such a system, we have investigated the economics of an area patterned after a reach of the South Platte Valley in Colorado. The results suggest that under current economic conditions the most reasonable groundwater pumping capacity is a total capacity capable of irrigating the available acreage with groundwater. Installing sufficient well capacity to irrigate all available acreage has two benefits: (1) this capacity maximizes the expected net benefits and (2) this capacity also minimizes the variation in annual income: it reduces the variance to essentially zero. As pumping capacity is installed in a conjunctive use system, the value of flow forecasts is diminished. Poor forecasts are compensated for by pumping groundwater.

Relations between the structure of storage and the transport of chemical compounds in karstic aquifers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vaute, L.; Drogue, C.; Garrelly, L.; Ghelfenstein, M.

1997-12-01

Study of the movement of chemical compounds naturally present in the water, or which result from pollution, are examined according to the reservoir structure in karstic aquifers. Structure is represented by a simple geometrical model; slow flow takes place in blocks with a network of low-permeability cracks. The blocks are separated by highly permeable karstic conduits that allow rapid flow, and these form the aquifer drainage system. The karst studied covers 110 km 2. It is fed by an interrupted stream draining a 35 km 2 non-karstic basin, contaminated at the entry to the karst by effluents from a sewage treatment station. The underground water reappears as a resurgence with an annual average flow of approximately 1 m 3 s -1, after an apparent underground course of 8 km in the karst. Several local sources of pollution (effluent from septic tanks) contaminate the underground water during its course. Sixteen measurement operations were performed at 12 water points, between the interrupted stream and the spring. Some sampling points were at drains, and others were in the low-permeability fissured blocks. Comparison at each point of the concentrations of 14 chemical compounds gave the following results: when pollutant discharge occurs in a permeable zone, movement is rapid in the drainage network formed by the karstic conduits, and does not reach the less permeable fissured blocks which are thus protected; however, if discharge is in a low-permeability zone, the flow does not allow rapid movement of the polluted water, and this increases the pollutant concentration at the discharge. This simple pattern can be upset by a reversal of the apparent piezometric gradient between a block and a conduit during floods or pumping; this may reverse flow directions and hence modify the movement of contaminants. The study made it possible to site five boreholes whose positions in the karstic structure were unknown, showing the interest of such an approach for the forecasting of the impact of potential pollution.

Geomorphic controls on hyporheic exchange flow in mountain streams.

Treesearch

T. Kasahara; S.M. Wondzell

2003-01-01

Hyporheic exchange flows were simulated using MODFLOW and MODPATH to estimate relative effects of channel morphologic features on the extent of the hyporheic zone, on hyporheic exchange flow, and on the residence time of stream water in the hyporheic zone. Four stream reaches were compared in order to examine the influence of stream size and channel constraint. Within...

Experimental study of streaming flows associated with ultrasonic levitators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trinh, E. H.; Robey, J. L.

1994-11-01

Steady-state acoustic streaming flow patterns have been observed during the operation of a variety of resonant single-axis ultrasonic levitators in a gaseous environment and in the 20-37 kHz frequency range. Light sheet illumination and scattering from smoke particles have revealed primary streaming flows which display different characteristics at low and high sound pressure levels. Secondary macroscopic streaming cells around levitated samples are superimposed on the primary streaming flow pattern generated by the standing wave. These recorded flows are quite reproducible, and are qualitatively the same for a variety of levitator physical geometries. An onset of flow instability can also be recorded in nonisothermal systems, such as levitated spot-heated samples when the resonance conditions are not exactly satisfied. A preliminary qualitative interpretation of these experimental results is presented in terms of the superposition of three discrete sets of circulation cells operating on different spatial scales. These relevant length scales are the acoustic wavelength, the levitated sample size, and finally the acoustic boundary layer thickness. This approach fails, however, to explain the streaming flow-field morphology around liquid drops levitated on Earth. Observation of the interaction between the flows cells and the levitated samples also suggests the existence of a steady-state torque induced by the streaming flows.

Subsurface Controls on Stream Intermittency in a Semi-Arid Landscape

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dohman, J.; Godsey, S.; Thackray, G. D.; Hale, R. L.; Wright, K.; Martinez, D.

2017-12-01

Intermittent streams currently constitute 30% to greater than 50% of the global river network. In addition, the number of intermittent streams is expected to increase due to changes in land use and climate. These streams provide important ecosystem services, such as water for irrigation, increased biodiversity, and high rates of nutrient cycling. Many hydrological studies have focused on mapping current intermittent flow regimes or evaluating long-term flow records, but very few have investigated the underlying causes of stream intermittency. The disconnection and reconnection of surface flow reflects the capacity of the subsurface to accommodate flow, so characterizing subsurface flow is key to understanding stream drying. We assess how subsurface flow paths control local surface flows during low-flow periods, including intermittency. Water table dynamics were monitored in an intermittent reach of Gibson Jack Creek in southeastern Idaho. Four transects were delineated with a groundwater well located in the hillslope, riparian zone, and in the stream, for a total of 12 groundwater wells. The presence or absence of surface flow was determined by frequent visual observations as well as in situ loggers every 30m along the 200m study reach. The rate of surface water drying was measured in conjunction with temperature, precipitation, subsurface hydraulic conductivity, hillslope-riparian-stream connectivity and subsurface travel time. Initial results during an unusually wet year suggest different responses in reaches that were previously observed to occasionally cease flowing. Flows in the intermittent reaches had less coherent and lower amplitude diel variations during base flow periods than reaches that had never been observed to dry out. Our findings will help contribute to our understanding of mechanisms driving expansion and contraction cycles in intermittent streams, increase our ability to predict how land use and climate change will affect flow regimes, and improve management of our critical water resources.

Ensemble forecast of human West Nile virus cases and mosquito infection rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Defelice, Nicholas B.; Little, Eliza; Campbell, Scott R.; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-02-01

West Nile virus (WNV) is now endemic in the continental United States; however, our ability to predict spillover transmission risk and human WNV cases remains limited. Here we develop a model depicting WNV transmission dynamics, which we optimize using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams, mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. The coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of historical WNV outbreaks in Long Island, New York for 2001-2014. Accurate forecasts of mosquito infection rates are generated before peak infection, and >65% of forecasts accurately predict seasonal total human WNV cases up to 9 weeks before the past reported case. This work provides the foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal outbreaks of WNV.

Ensemble forecast of human West Nile virus cases and mosquito infection rates.

PubMed

DeFelice, Nicholas B; Little, Eliza; Campbell, Scott R; Shaman, Jeffrey

2017-02-24

West Nile virus (WNV) is now endemic in the continental United States; however, our ability to predict spillover transmission risk and human WNV cases remains limited. Here we develop a model depicting WNV transmission dynamics, which we optimize using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams, mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. The coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of historical WNV outbreaks in Long Island, New York for 2001-2014. Accurate forecasts of mosquito infection rates are generated before peak infection, and >65% of forecasts accurately predict seasonal total human WNV cases up to 9 weeks before the past reported case. This work provides the foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal outbreaks of WNV.

Practical Meteor Stream Forecasting

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cooke, William J.; Suggs, Robert M.

2003-01-01

Inspired by the recent Leonid meteor storms, researchers have made great strides in our ability to predict enhanced meteor activity. However, the necessary calibration of the meteor stream models with Earth-based ZHRs (Zenith Hourly Rates) has placed emphasis on the terran observer and meteor activity predictions are published in such a manner to reflect this emphasis. As a consequence, many predictions are often unusable by the satellite community, which has the most at stake and the greatest interest in meteor forecasting. This paper suggests that stream modelers need to pay more attention to the needs of this community and publish not just durations and times of maxima for Earth, but everything needed to characterize the meteor stream in and out of the plane of the ecliptic, which, at a minimum, consists of the location of maximum stream density (ZHR) and the functional form of the density decay with distance from this point. It is also suggested that some of the terminology associated with meteor showers may need to be more strictly defined in order to eliminate the perception of crying wolf by meteor scientists. An outburst is especially problematic, as it usually denotes an enhancement by a factor of 2 or more to researchers, but conveys the notion of a sky filled with meteors to satellite operators and the public. Experience has also taught that predicted ZHRs often lead to public disappointment, as these values vastly overestimate what is seen.

Local flow measurements at the inlet spike tip of a Mach 3 supersonic cruise airplane

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnson, H. J.; Montoya, E. J.

1973-01-01

The flow field at the left inlet spike tip of a YF-12A airplane was examined using at 26 deg included angle conical flow sensor to obtain measurements at free-stream Mach numbers from 1.6 to 3.0. Local flow angularity, Mach number, impact pressure, and mass flow were determined and compared with free-stream values. Local flow changes occurred at the same time as free-stream changes. The local flow usually approached the spike centerline from the upper outboard side because of spike cant and toe-in. Free-stream Mach number influenced the local flow angularity; as Mach number increased above 2.2, local angle of attack increased and local sideslip angle decreased. Local Mach number was generally 3 percent less than free-stream Mach number. Impact-pressure ratio and mass flow ratio increased as free-stream Mach number increased above 2.2, indicating a beneficial forebody compression effect. No degradation of the spike tip instrumentation was observed after more than 40 flights in the high-speed thermal environment encountered by the airplane. The sensor is rugged, simple, and sensitive to small flow changes. It can provide accurate imputs necessary to control an inlet.

Simulation of climate change effects on streamflow, groundwater, and stream temperature using GSFLOW and SNTEMP in the Black Earth Creek Watershed, Wisconsin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hunt, Randall J.; Westenbroek, Stephen M.; Walker, John F.; Selbig, William R.; Regan, R. Steven; Leaf, Andrew T.; Saad, David A.

2016-08-23

Potential future changes in air temperature drivers were consistently upward regardless of General Circulation Model and emission scenario selected; thus, simulated stream temperatures are forecast to increase appreciably with future climate. However, the amount of temperature increase was variable. Such uncertainty is reflected in temperature model results, along with uncertainty in the groundwater/surface-water interaction itself. The estimated increase in annual average temperature ranged from approximately 3 to 6 degrees Celsius by 2100 in the upper reaches of Black Earth Creek and 2 to 4 degrees Celsius in reaches farther downstream. As with all forecasts that rely on projections of an unknowable future, the results are best considered to approximate potential outcomes of climate change given the underlying uncertainty.

Interactive Forecasting with the National Weather Service River Forecast System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, George F.; Page, Donna

1993-01-01

The National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) consists of several major hydrometeorologic subcomponents to model the physics of the flow of water through the hydrologic cycle. The entire NWSRFS currently runs in both mainframe and minicomputer environments, using command oriented text input to control the system computations. As computationally powerful and graphically sophisticated scientific workstations became available, the National Weather Service (NWS) recognized that a graphically based, interactive environment would enhance the accuracy and timeliness of NWS river and flood forecasts. Consequently, the operational forecasting portion of the NWSRFS has been ported to run under a UNIX operating system, with X windows as the display environment on a system of networked scientific workstations. In addition, the NWSRFS Interactive Forecast Program was developed to provide a graphical user interface to allow the forecaster to control NWSRFS program flow and to make adjustments to forecasts as necessary. The potential market for water resources forecasting is immense and largely untapped. Any private company able to market the river forecasting technologies currently developed by the NWS Office of Hydrology could provide benefits to many information users and profit from providing these services.

Estimated Perennial Streams of Idaho and Related Geospatial Datasets

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rea, Alan; Skinner, Kenneth D.

2009-01-01

The perennial or intermittent status of a stream has bearing on many regulatory requirements. Because of changing technologies over time, cartographic representation of perennial/intermittent status of streams on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) topographic maps is not always accurate and (or) consistent from one map sheet to another. Idaho Administrative Code defines an intermittent stream as one having a 7-day, 2-year low flow (7Q2) less than 0.1 cubic feet per second. To establish consistency with the Idaho Administrative Code, the USGS developed regional regression equations for Idaho streams for several low-flow statistics, including 7Q2. Using these regression equations, the 7Q2 streamflow may be estimated for naturally flowing streams anywhere in Idaho to help determine perennial/intermittent status of streams. Using these equations in conjunction with a Geographic Information System (GIS) technique known as weighted flow accumulation allows for an automated and continuous estimation of 7Q2 streamflow at all points along a stream, which in turn can be used to determine if a stream is intermittent or perennial according to the Idaho Administrative Code operational definition. The selected regression equations were applied to create continuous grids of 7Q2 estimates for the eight low-flow regression regions of Idaho. By applying the 0.1 ft3/s criterion, the perennial streams have been estimated in each low-flow region. Uncertainty in the estimates is shown by identifying a 'transitional' zone, corresponding to flow estimates of 0.1 ft3/s plus and minus one standard error. Considerable additional uncertainty exists in the model of perennial streams presented in this report. The regression models provide overall estimates based on general trends within each regression region. These models do not include local factors such as a large spring or a losing reach that may greatly affect flows at any given point. Site-specific flow data, assuming a sufficient period of record, generally would be considered to represent flow conditions better at a given site than flow estimates based on regionalized regression models. The geospatial datasets of modeled perennial streams are considered a first-cut estimate, and should not be construed to override site-specific flow data.

Putting the "ecology" into environmental flows: ecological dynamics and demographic modelling.

PubMed

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R; Yen, Jian D L; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological 'health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A 'meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Putting the "Ecology" into Environmental Flows: Ecological Dynamics and Demographic Modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shenton, Will; Bond, Nicholas R.; Yen, Jian D. L.; Mac Nally, Ralph

2012-07-01

There have been significant diversions of water from rivers and streams around the world; natural flow regimes have been perturbed by dams, barriers and excessive extractions. Many aspects of the ecological `health' of riverine systems have declined due to changes in water flows, which has stimulated the development of thinking about the maintenance and restoration of these systems, which we refer to as environmental flow methodologies (EFMs). Most existing EFMs cannot deliver information on the population viability of species because they: (1) use habitat suitability as a proxy for population status; (2) use historical time series (usually of short duration) to forecast future conditions and flow sequences; (3) cannot, or do not, handle extreme flow events associated with climate variability; and (4) assume process stationarity for flow sequences, which means the past sequences are treated as good indicators of the future. These assumptions undermine the capacity of EFMs to properly represent risks associated with different flow management options; assumption (4) is untenable given most climate-change predictions. We discuss these concerns and advocate the use of demographic modelling as a more appropriate tool for linking population dynamics to flow regime change. A `meta-species' approach to demographic modelling is discussed as a useful step from habitat based models towards modelling strategies grounded in ecological theory when limited data are available on flow-demographic relationships. Data requirements of demographic models will undoubtedly expose gaps in existing knowledge, but, in so doing, will strengthen future efforts to link changes in river flows with their ecological consequences.

Forecasting production in Liquid Rich Shale plays

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nikfarman, Hanieh

Production from Liquid Rich Shale (LRS) reservoirs is taking center stage in the exploration and production of unconventional reservoirs. Production from the low and ultra-low permeability LRS plays is possible only through multi-fractured horizontal wells (MFHW's). There is no existing workflow that is applicable to forecasting multi-phase production from MFHW's in LRS plays. This project presents a practical and rigorous workflow for forecasting multiphase production from MFHW's in LRS reservoirs. There has been much effort in developing workflows and methodology for forecasting in tight/shale plays in recent years. The existing workflows, however, are applicable only to single phase flow, and are primarily used in shale gas plays. These methodologies do not apply to the multi-phase flow that is inevitable in LRS plays. To account for complexities of multiphase flow in MFHW's the only available technique is dynamic modeling in compositional numerical simulators. These are time consuming and not practical when it comes to forecasting production and estimating reserves for a large number of producers. A workflow was developed, and validated by compositional numerical simulation. The workflow honors physics of flow, and is sufficiently accurate while practical so that an analyst can readily apply it to forecast production and estimate reserves in a large number of producers in a short period of time. To simplify the complex multiphase flow in MFHW, the workflow divides production periods into an initial period where large production and pressure declines are expected, and the subsequent period where production decline may converge into a common trend for a number of producers across an area of interest in the field. Initial period assumes the production is dominated by single-phase flow of oil and uses the tri-linear flow model of Erdal Ozkan to estimate the production history. Commercial software readily available can simulate flow and forecast production in this period. In the subsequent Period, dimensionless rate and dimensionless time functions are introduced that help identify transition from initial period into subsequent period. The production trends in terms of the dimensionless parameters converge for a range of rock permeability and stimulation intensity. This helps forecast production beyond transition to the end of life of well. This workflow is applicable to single fluid system.

GloFAS-Seasonal: Operational Seasonal Ensemble River Flow Forecasts at the Global Scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Emerton, Rebecca; Zsoter, Ervin; Smith, Paul; Salamon, Peter

2017-04-01

Seasonal hydrological forecasting has potential benefits for many sectors, including agriculture, water resources management and humanitarian aid. At present, no global scale seasonal hydrological forecasting system exists operationally; although smaller scale systems have begun to emerge around the globe over the past decade, a system providing consistent global scale seasonal forecasts would be of great benefit in regions where no other forecasting system exists, and to organisations operating at the global scale, such as disaster relief. We present here a new operational global ensemble seasonal hydrological forecast, currently under development at ECMWF as part of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). The proposed system, which builds upon the current version of GloFAS, takes the long-range forecasts from the ECMWF System4 ensemble seasonal forecast system (which incorporates the HTESSEL land surface scheme) and uses this runoff as input to the Lisflood routing model, producing a seasonal river flow forecast out to 4 months lead time, for the global river network. The seasonal forecasts will be evaluated using the global river discharge reanalysis, and observations where available, to determine the potential value of the forecasts across the globe. The seasonal forecasts will be presented as a new layer in the GloFAS interface, which will provide a global map of river catchments, indicating whether the catchment-averaged discharge forecast is showing abnormally high or low flows during the 4-month lead time. Each catchment will display the corresponding forecast as an ensemble hydrograph of the weekly-averaged discharge forecast out to 4 months, with percentile thresholds shown for comparison with the discharge climatology. The forecast visualisation is based on a combination of the current medium-range GloFAS forecasts and the operational EFAS (European Flood Awareness System) seasonal outlook, and aims to effectively communicate the nature of a seasonal outlook while providing useful information to users and partners. We demonstrate the first version of an operational GloFAS seasonal outlook, outlining the model set-up and presenting a first look at the seasonal forecasts that will be displayed in the GloFAS interface, and discuss the initial results of the forecast evaluation.

Experimental reductions in stream flow alter litter processing and consumer subsidies in headwater streams

Treesearch

Robert M. Northington; Jackson R. Webster

2017-01-01

SummaryForested headwater streams are connected to their surrounding catchments by a reliance on terrestrial subsidies. Changes in precipitation patterns and stream flow represent a potential disruption in stream ecosystem function, as the delivery of terrestrial detritus to aquatic consumers and...

Streaming reversal of energetic particles in the magnetotail during a substorm

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lui, A. T. Y.; Williams, D. J.; Eastman, T. E.; Frank, L. A.; Akasofu, S.-I.

1984-01-01

A case of reversal in the streaming anisotropy of energetic ions and in the plasma flow observed from the IMP 8 spacecraft during a substorm on February 8, 1978 is studied in detail using measurements of energetic particles, plasma, and magnetic field. Four new features emerge when high time resolution data are examined in detail. The times of streaming reversal of energetic particles in different energy ranges do not coincide with the time of plasma flow reversal. Qualitatively different velocity distributions are observed in earthward and tailward plasma flows during the observed flow reversal intervals. Strong tailward streaming of energetic particles can be detected during northward magnetic field environments and, conversely, earthward streaming in southward field environments. During the period of tailward streaming of energetic particles, earthward streaming fluxes are occasionally detected.

A revised radiation package of G-packed McICA and two-stream approximation: Performance evaluation in a global weather forecasting model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baek, Sunghye

2017-07-01

For more efficient and accurate computation of radiative flux, improvements have been achieved in two aspects, integration of the radiative transfer equation over space and angle. First, the treatment of the Monte Carlo-independent column approximation (MCICA) is modified focusing on efficiency using a reduced number of random samples ("G-packed") within a reconstructed and unified radiation package. The original McICA takes 20% of CPU time of radiation in the Global/Regional Integrated Model systems (GRIMs). The CPU time consumption of McICA is reduced by 70% without compromising accuracy. Second, parameterizations of shortwave two-stream approximations are revised to reduce errors with respect to the 16-stream discrete ordinate method. Delta-scaled two-stream approximation (TSA) is almost unanimously used in Global Circulation Model (GCM) but contains systematic errors which overestimate forward peak scattering as solar elevation decreases. These errors are alleviated by adjusting the parameterizations of each scattering element—aerosol, liquid, ice and snow cloud particles. Parameterizations are determined with 20,129 atmospheric columns of the GRIMs data and tested with 13,422 independent data columns. The result shows that the root-mean-square error (RMSE) over the all atmospheric layers is decreased by 39% on average without significant increase in computational time. Revised TSA developed and validated with a separate one-dimensional model is mounted on GRIMs for mid-term numerical weather forecasting. Monthly averaged global forecast skill scores are unchanged with revised TSA but the temperature at lower levels of the atmosphere (pressure ≥ 700 hPa) is slightly increased (< 0.5 K) with corrected atmospheric absorption.

78 FR 65306 - Best Practices for Continuous Monitoring of Temperature and Flow in Wadeable Streams

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-31

... Practices for Continuous Monitoring of Temperature and Flow in Wadeable Streams AGENCY: Environmental... Monitoring of Temperature and Flow in Wadeable Streams'' (EPA/600/R-13/170). The EPA also is announcing that... Development. The report describes best practices for the deployment of continuous temperature and flow sensors...

Evaluation of Flood Forecast and Warning in Elbe river basin - Impact of Forecaster's Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Danhelka, Jan; Vlasak, Tomas

2010-05-01

Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI) is responsible for flood forecasting and warning in the Czech Republic. To meet that issue CHMI operates hydrological forecasting systems and publish flow forecast in selected profiles. Flood forecast and warning is an output of system that links observation (flow and atmosphere), data processing, weather forecast (especially NWP's QPF), hydrological modeling and modeled outputs evaluation and interpretation by forecaster. Forecast users are interested in final output without separating uncertainties of separate steps of described process. Therefore an evaluation of final operational forecasts was done for profiles within Elbe river basin produced by AquaLog forecasting system during period 2002 to 2008. Effects of uncertainties of observation, data processing and especially meteorological forecasts were not accounted separately. Forecast of flood levels exceedance (peak over the threshold) during forecasting period was the main criterion as flow increase forecast is of the highest importance. Other evaluation criteria included peak flow and volume difference. In addition Nash-Sutcliffe was computed separately for each time step (1 to 48 h) of forecasting period to identify its change with the lead time. Textual flood warnings are issued for administrative regions to initiate flood protection actions in danger of flood. Flood warning hit rate was evaluated at regions level and national level. Evaluation found significant differences of model forecast skill between forecasting profiles, particularly less skill was evaluated at small headwater basins due to domination of QPF uncertainty in these basins. The average hit rate was 0.34 (miss rate = 0.33, false alarm rate = 0.32). However its explored spatial difference is likely to be influenced also by different fit of parameters sets (due to different basin characteristics) and importantly by different impact of human factor. Results suggest that the practice of interactive model operation, experience and forecasting strategy differs between responsible forecasting offices. Warning is based on model outputs interpretation by hydrologists-forecaster. Warning hit rate reached 0.60 for threshold set to lowest flood stage of which 0.11 was underestimation of flood degree (miss 0.22, false alarm 0.28). Critical success index of model forecast was 0.34, while the same criteria for warning reached 0.55. We assume that the increase accounts not only to change of scale from single forecasting point to region for warning, but partly also to forecaster's added value. There is no official warning strategy preferred in the Czech Republic (f.e. tolerance towards higher false alarm rate). Therefore forecaster decision and personal strategy is of great importance. Results show quite successful warning for 1st flood level exceedance, over-warning for 2nd flood level, but under-warning for 3rd (highest) flood level. That suggests general forecaster's preference of medium level warning (2nd flood level is legally determined to be the start of the flood and flood protection activities). In conclusion human forecaster's experience and analysis skill increases flood warning performance notably. However society preference should be specifically addressed in the warning strategy definition to support forecaster's decision making.

Fuzzy State Transition and Kalman Filter Applied in Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting

PubMed Central

Ming-jun, Deng; Shi-ru, Qu

2015-01-01

Traffic flow is widely recognized as an important parameter for road traffic state forecasting. Fuzzy state transform and Kalman filter (KF) have been applied in this field separately. But the studies show that the former method has good performance on the trend forecasting of traffic state variation but always involves several numerical errors. The latter model is good at numerical forecasting but is deficient in the expression of time hysteretically. This paper proposed an approach that combining fuzzy state transform and KF forecasting model. In considering the advantage of the two models, a weight combination model is proposed. The minimum of the sum forecasting error squared is regarded as a goal in optimizing the combined weight dynamically. Real detection data are used to test the efficiency. Results indicate that the method has a good performance in terms of short-term traffic forecasting. PMID:26779258

Fuzzy State Transition and Kalman Filter Applied in Short-Term Traffic Flow Forecasting.

PubMed

Deng, Ming-jun; Qu, Shi-ru

2015-01-01

Traffic flow is widely recognized as an important parameter for road traffic state forecasting. Fuzzy state transform and Kalman filter (KF) have been applied in this field separately. But the studies show that the former method has good performance on the trend forecasting of traffic state variation but always involves several numerical errors. The latter model is good at numerical forecasting but is deficient in the expression of time hysteretically. This paper proposed an approach that combining fuzzy state transform and KF forecasting model. In considering the advantage of the two models, a weight combination model is proposed. The minimum of the sum forecasting error squared is regarded as a goal in optimizing the combined weight dynamically. Real detection data are used to test the efficiency. Results indicate that the method has a good performance in terms of short-term traffic forecasting.

Assessing the Vulnerability of Streams to Increased Frequency and Severity of Low Flows in the Southeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Konrad, C. P.

2014-12-01

A changing climate poses risks to the availability and quality of water resources. Among the risks, increased frequency and severity of low flow periods in streams would be significant for many in-stream and out-of-stream uses of water. While down-scaled climate projections serve as the basis for understanding impacts of climate change on hydrologic systems, a robust framework for risk assessment incorporates multiple dimensions of risks including the vulnerability of hydrologic systems to climate change impacts. Streamflow records from the southeastern US were examined to assess the vulnerability of streams to increased frequency and severity of low flows. Long-term (>50 years) records provide evidence of more frequent and severe low flows in more streams than would be expected from random chance. Trends in low flows appear to be a result of changes in the temporal distribution rather than the annual amount of preciptation and/or in evaporation. Base flow recession provides an indicator of a stream's vulnerability to such changes. Linkages between streamflow patterns across temporal scales can be used for understanding and asessing stream responses to the various possible expressions of a changing climate.

An Integrated Modeling Framework Forecasting Ecosystem Exposure-- A Systems Approach to the Cumulative Impacts of Multiple Stressors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnston, J. M.

2013-12-01

Freshwater habitats provide fishable, swimmable and drinkable resources and are a nexus of geophysical and biological processes. These processes in turn influence the persistence and sustainability of populations, communities and ecosystems. Climate change and landuse change encompass numerous stressors of potential exposure, including the introduction of toxic contaminants, invasive species, and disease in addition to physical drivers such as temperature and hydrologic regime. A systems approach that includes the scientific and technologic basis of assessing the health of ecosystems is needed to effectively protect human health and the environment. The Integrated Environmental Modeling Framework 'iemWatersheds' has been developed as a consistent and coherent means of forecasting the cumulative impact of co-occurring stressors. The Framework consists of three facilitating technologies: Data for Environmental Modeling (D4EM) that automates the collection and standardization of input data; the Framework for Risk Assessment of Multimedia Environmental Systems (FRAMES) that manages the flow of information between linked models; and the Supercomputer for Model Uncertainty and Sensitivity Evaluation (SuperMUSE) that provides post-processing and analysis of model outputs, including uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Five models are linked within the Framework to provide multimedia simulation capabilities for hydrology and water quality processes: the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) predicts surface water and sediment runoff and associated contaminants; the Watershed Mercury Model (WMM) predicts mercury runoff and loading to streams; the Water quality Analysis and Simulation Program (WASP) predicts water quality within the stream channel; the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) model scores physicochemical habitat quality for individual fish species; and the Bioaccumulation and Aquatic System Simulator (BASS) predicts fish growth, population dynamics and bioaccumulation of toxic substances. The capability of the Framework to address cumulative impacts will be demonstrated for freshwater ecosystem services and mountaintop mining.

Changes in streamflow characteristics in Wisconsin as related to precipitation and land use

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gebert, Warren A.; Garn, Herbert S.; Rose, William J.

2016-01-19

Streamflow characteristics were determined for 15 longterm streamflow-gaging stations for the periods 1915–2008, 1915–68, and 1969–2008 to identify trends. Stations selected represent flow characteristics for the major river basins in Wisconsin. Trends were statistically significant at the 95 percent confidence level at 13 of the 15 streamflow-gaging stations for various streamflow characteristics for 1915–2008. Most trends indicated increases in low flows for streams with agriculture as the dominant land use. The three most important findings are: increases in low flows and average flows in agricultural watersheds, decreases in flood peak discharge for many streams in both agricultural and forested watersheds, and climatic change occurred with increasing annual precipitation and changes in monthly occurrence of precipitation. When the 1915–68 period is compared to the 1969–2008 period, the annual 7-day low flow increased an average of 60 percent for nine streams in agricultural areas as compared to a 15 percent increase for the five forested streams. Average annual flow for the same periods increased 23 percent for the agriculture streams and 0.6 percent for the forested streams. The annual flood peak discharge for the same periods decreased 15 percent for agriculture streams and 8 percent for forested streams. The largest increase in the annual 7-day low flow was 117 percent, the largest increase in annual average flow was 41 percent, and the largest decrease in annual peak discharge was 51 percent. The trends in streamflow characteristics affect frequency characteristics, which are used for a variety of design and compliance purposes. The frequencies for the 1969–2008 period were compared to frequencies for the 1915–68 period. The 7-day, 10-year (Q7, 10) low flow increased 91 percent for nine agricultural streams, while the five forested streams had an increase of 18 percent. The 100-year flood peak discharge decreased an average of 15 percent for streams in the agriculture area and 27 percent for streams in the forested area. Increases in low flow for agriculture streams are attributed to changes in agricultural practices and land use as well as increased precipitation. The decrease in annual flood peak discharge with increased annual precipitation is less clear, but is attributed to increased infiltration from changes in agricultural practices and climatic changes. For future low-flow studies, the 1969–2008 period should be used to determine low-flow characteristics since it represents current (2014) conditions and was generally free of significant trends.

Streamflow Forecasting Using Nuero-Fuzzy Inference System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nanduri, U. V.; Swain, P. C.

2005-12-01

The prediction of flow into a reservoir is fundamental in water resources planning and management. The need for timely and accurate streamflow forecasting is widely recognized and emphasized by many in water resources fraternity. Real-time forecasts of natural inflows to reservoirs are of particular interest for operation and scheduling. The physical system of the river basin that takes the rainfall as an input and produces the runoff is highly nonlinear, complicated and very difficult to fully comprehend. The system is influenced by large number of factors and variables. The large spatial extent of the systems forces the uncertainty into the hydrologic information. A variety of methods have been proposed for forecasting reservoir inflows including conceptual (physical) and empirical (statistical) models (WMO 1994), but none of them can be considered as unique superior model (Shamseldin 1997). Owing to difficulties of formulating reasonable non-linear watershed models, recent attempts have resorted to Neural Network (NN) approach for complex hydrologic modeling. In recent years the use of soft computing in the field of hydrological forecasting is gaining ground. The relatively new soft computing technique of Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), developed by Jang (1993) is able to take care of the non-linearity, uncertainty, and vagueness embedded in the system. It is a judicious combination of the Neural Networks and fuzzy systems. It can learn and generalize highly nonlinear and uncertain phenomena due to the embedded neural network (NN). NN is efficient in learning and generalization, and the fuzzy system mimics the cognitive capability of human brain. Hence, ANFIS can learn the complicated processes involved in the basin and correlate the precipitation to the corresponding discharge. In the present study, one step ahead forecasts are made for ten-daily flows, which are mostly required for short term operational planning of multipurpose reservoirs. A Neuro-Fuzzy model is developed to forecast ten-daily flows into the Hirakud reservoir on River Mahanadi in the state of Orissa in India. Correlation analysis is carried out to find out the most influential variables on the ten daily flow at Hirakud. Based on this analysis, four variables, namely, flow during the previous time period, ql1, rainfall during the previous two time periods, rl1 and rl2, and flow during the same period in previous year, qpy, are identified as the most influential variables to forecast the ten daily flow. Performance measures such as Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Correlation Coefficient (CORR) and coefficient of efficiency R2 are computed for training and testing phases of the model to evaluate its performance. The results indicate that the ten-daily forecasting model is efficient in predicting the high and medium flows with reasonable accuracy. The forecast of low flows is associated with less efficiency. REFERENCES Jang, J.S.R. (1993). "ANFIS: Adaptive - network- based fuzzy inference system." IEEE Trans. on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, 23 (3), 665-685. Shamseldin, A.Y. (1997). "Application of a neural network technique to rainfall-runoff modeling." Journal of Hydrology, 199, 272-294. World Meteorological Organization (1975). Intercomparison of conceptual models used in operational hydrological forecasting. World Meteorological Organization, Technical Report No.429, Geneva, Switzerland.

Using satellite-based rainfall estimates for streamflow modelling: Bagmati Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shrestha, M.S.; Artan, Guleid A.; Bajracharya, S.R.; Sharma, R. R.

2008-01-01

In this study, we have described a hydrologic modelling system that uses satellite-based rainfall estimates and weather forecast data for the Bagmati River Basin of Nepal. The hydrologic model described is the US Geological Survey (USGS) Geospatial Stream Flow Model (GeoSFM). The GeoSFM is a spatially semidistributed, physically based hydrologic model. We have used the GeoSFM to estimate the streamflow of the Bagmati Basin at Pandhera Dovan hydrometric station. To determine the hydrologic connectivity, we have used the USGS Hydro1k DEM dataset. The model was forced by daily estimates of rainfall and evapotranspiration derived from weather model data. The rainfall estimates used for the modelling are those produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Climate Prediction Centre and observed at ground rain gauge stations. The model parameters were estimated from globally available soil and land cover datasets – the Digital Soil Map of the World by FAO and the USGS Global Land Cover dataset. The model predicted the daily streamflow at Pandhera Dovan gauging station. The comparison of the simulated and observed flows at Pandhera Dovan showed that the GeoSFM model performed well in simulating the flows of the Bagmati Basin.

Availability and distribution of low flow in Anahola Stream, Kauaʻi, Hawaiʻi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, Chui Ling; Wolff, Reuben H.

2012-01-01

Anahola Stream is a perennial stream in northeast Kauaʻi, Hawaiʻi, that supports agricultural, domestic, and cultural uses within its drainage basin. Beginning in the late 19th century, Anahola streamflow was diverted by Makee Sugar Company at altitudes of 840 feet (upper intake) and 280 feet (lower intake) for irrigating sugarcane in the Keālia area. When sugarcane cultivation in the Keālia area ceased in 1988, part of the Makee Sugar Company’s surface-water collection system (Makee diversion system) in the Anahola drainage basin was abandoned. In an effort to better manage available surface-water resources, the State of Hawaiʻi Department of Hawaiian Home Lands is considering using the existing ditches in the Anahola Stream drainage basin to provide irrigation water for Native Hawaiian farmers in the area. To provide information needed for successful management of the surface-water resources, the U.S. Geological Survey investigated the availability and distribution of natural low flow in Anahola Stream and also collected low-flow data in Goldfish Stream, a stream that discharges into Kaneha Reservoir, which served as a major collection point for the Makee diversion system. Biological surveys of Anahola Stream were conducted as part of a study to determine the distribution of native and nonnative aquatic stream fauna. Results of the biological surveys indicated the presence of the following native aquatic species in Anahola Stream: ʻoʻopu ʻakupa (Sandwich Island sleeper) and ʻoʻopu naniha (Tear-drop goby) in the lower stream reaches surveyed; and ʻoʻopu nākea (Pacific river goby), ʻoʻopu nōpili (Stimpson’s goby), and ʻōpae kalaʻole (Mountain shrimp) in the middle and upper stream reaches surveyed. Nonnative aquatic species were found in all of the surveyed stream reaches along Anahola Stream. The availability and distribution of natural low flow were determined using a combination of discharge measurements made from February 2011 to May 2012 at low-flow partial-record and seepage-run stations established at locations of interest along study-area streams. Upstream of the upper intake, the estimated natural (undiverted) median flow in Anahola Stream is 2.7 million gallons per day, and the flow is expected to be greater than or equal to 0.97 million gallons per day 95 percent of the time. About 0.7 mile upstream of the lower intake and downstream from the confluence with Keaʻoʻopu Stream, the estimated natural (undiverted) median flow in Anahola Stream is 6.3 million gallons per day, and the flow is expected to be greater than or equal to 2.7 million gallons per day 95 percent of the time. In Goldfish Stream, about 0.4 mile upstream from the point of discharge into Kaneha Reservoir, the estimated natural median flow is 0.54 million gallons per day, and the flow is expected to be greater than or equal to 0.23 million gallons per day 95 percent of the time. The discharge estimates are representative of low-flow conditions in the study-area streams, and they are applicable to the base period (water years 1961–2011) over which they have been computed. The distribution of natural low flow in Anahola Stream was characterized through data collected during wet- and dry-season seepage runs. Seepage-run results show that Anahola Stream was generally a gaining stream under natural low-flow conditions. During the wet-season seepage run, Anahola Stream at the station located upstream of tributary Kaʻalula Stream had more than five times the flow that was measured upstream from the upper intake. The estimated total gain (including tributary inflow) in the 6.1-mile seepage-run reach was 6.97 million gallons per day; about 42 percent of that gain was groundwater discharge to the main channel of Anahola Stream. During the dry-season seepage run, about 34 percent of the estimated total gain of 3.93 million gallons per day in the same seepage-run reach was groundwater discharge to the main channel of Anahola Stream. A 15-percent seepage loss was estimated in a 0.3-mile reach downstream from the confluence of Anahola and Keaʻoʻopu Streams. The report summarizes scenarios that describe (1) surface-water availability under regulated conditions of Anahola Stream if the upper and lower intakes are restored in the future; and (2) amount of flow available for agricultural use at the upper intake under a variety of potential instream-flow standards that may be established by the State of Hawaiʻi for the protection of instream uses.

Waste Information Management System with 2012-13 Waste Streams - 13095

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Upadhyay, H.; Quintero, W.; Lagos, L.

2013-07-01

The Waste Information Management System (WIMS) 2012-13 was updated to support the Department of Energy (DOE) accelerated cleanup program. The schedule compression required close coordination and a comprehensive review and prioritization of the barriers that impeded treatment and disposition of the waste streams at each site. Many issues related to waste treatment and disposal were potential critical path issues under the accelerated schedule. In order to facilitate accelerated cleanup initiatives, waste managers at DOE field sites and at DOE Headquarters in Washington, D.C., needed timely waste forecast and transportation information regarding the volumes and types of radioactive waste that wouldmore » be generated by DOE sites over the next 40 years. Each local DOE site historically collected, organized, and displayed waste forecast information in separate and unique systems. In order for interested parties to understand and view the complete DOE complex-wide picture, the radioactive waste and shipment information of each DOE site needed to be entered into a common application. The WIMS application was therefore created to serve as a common application to improve stakeholder comprehension and improve DOE radioactive waste treatment and disposal planning and scheduling. WIMS allows identification of total forecasted waste volumes, material classes, disposition sites, choke points, technological or regulatory barriers to treatment and disposal, along with forecasted waste transportation information by rail, truck and inter-modal shipments. The Applied Research Center (ARC) at Florida International University (FIU) in Miami, Florida, developed and deployed the web-based forecast and transportation system and is responsible for updating the radioactive waste forecast and transportation data on a regular basis to ensure the long-term viability and value of this system. (authors)« less

Low-flow profiles of the upper Oconee River and tributaries in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, R.F.; Hopkins, E.H.; Perlman, H.A.

1988-01-01

Low flow information is provided for use in an evaluation of the capacity of streams to permit withdrawals or to accept waste loads without exceeding the limits of State water quality standards. The purpose of this report is to present the results of a compilation of available low flow data in the form of tables and ' 7Q10 flow profiles ' (minimum average flow for 7 consecutive days with a 10-yr recurrence interval)(7Q10 flow plotted against distance along a stream channel) for all streams reaches of the Upper Oconee River and tributaries in Georgia where sufficient data of acceptable accuracy are available. Drainage area profiles are included for all stream basins larger than 5 sq mi, except for those in a few remote areas. This report is the second in a series of reports that will cover all stream basins north of the Fall Line in Georgia. It includes the Oconee River basin down to and including Camp Creek at stream mile 134.53, Town Creek in Baldwin and Hancock Counties down to County Road 213-141, and Buffalo Creek in Hancock County down to the Hancock-Washington County line. Flow records were not adjusted for diversions or other factors that cause measured flows to represent other than natural flow conditions. The 7-day minimum flow profile was omitted for stream reaches where natural flow was known to be altered significantly. (Lantz-PTT)

Combined effects of hydrologic alteration and cyprinid fish in mediating biogeochemical processes in a Mediterranean stream.

PubMed

Rubio-Gracia, Francesc; Almeida, David; Bonet, Berta; Casals, Frederic; Espinosa, Carmen; Flecker, Alexander S; García-Berthou, Emili; Martí, Eugènia; Tuulaikhuu, Baigal-Amar; Vila-Gispert, Anna; Zamora, Lluis; Guasch, Helena

2017-12-01

Flow regimes are important drivers of both stream community and biogeochemical processes. However, the interplay between community and biogeochemical responses under different flow regimes in streams is less understood. In this study, we investigated the structural and functional responses of periphyton and macroinvertebrates to different densities of the Mediterranean barbel (Barbus meridionalis, Cyprinidae) in two stream reaches differing in flow regime. The study was conducted in Llémena Stream, a small calcareous Mediterranean stream with high nutrient levels. We selected a reach with permanent flow (permanent reach) and another subjected to flow regulation (regulated reach) with periods of flow intermittency. At each reach, we used in situ cages to generate 3 levels of fish density. Cages with 10 barbels were used to simulate high fish density (>7indm -2 ); cages with open sides were used as controls (i.e. exposed to actual fish densities of each stream reach) thus having low fish density; and those with no fish were used to simulate the disappearance of fish that occurs with stream drying. Differences in fish density did not cause significant changes in periphyton biomass and macroinvertebrate density. However, phosphate uptake by periphyton was enhanced in treatments lacking fish in the regulated reach with intermittent flow but not in the permanent reach, suggesting that hydrologic alteration hampers the ability of biotic communities to compensate for the absence of fish. This study indicates that fish density can mediate the effects of anthropogenic alterations such as flow intermittence derived from hydrologic regulation on stream benthic communities and associated biogeochemical processes, at least in eutrophic streams. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

United States streamflow probabilities based on forecasted La Nina, winter-spring 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Redmond, K.T.

1999-01-01

Although for the last 5 months the TahitiDarwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has hovered close to normal, the “equatorial” SOI has remained in the La Niña category and predictions are calling for La Niña conditions this winter. In view of these predictions of continuing La Niña and as a direct extension of previous studies of the relations between El NiñoSouthern Oscil-lation (ENSO) conditions and streamflow in the United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Redmond and Cayan, 1994; Dettinger et al., 1998; Garen, 1998; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., in press), the probabilities that United States streamflows from December 1999 through July 2000 will be in upper and lower thirds (terciles) of the historical records are estimated here. The processes that link ENSO to North American streamflow are discussed in detail in these diagnostics studies. Our justification for generating this forecast is threefold: (1) Cayan et al. (1999) recently have shown that ENSO influences on streamflow variations and extremes are proportionately larger than the corresponding precipitation teleconnections. (2) Redmond and Cayan (1994) and Dettinger et al. (in press) also have shown that the low-frequency evolution of ENSO conditions support long-lead correlations between ENSO and streamflow in many rivers of the conterminous United States. (3) In many rivers, significant (weeks-to-months) delays between precipitation and the release to streams of snowmelt or ground-water discharge can support even longer term forecasts of streamflow than is possible for precipitation. The relatively slow, orderly evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes, the accentuated dependence of streamflow upon ENSO, and the long lags between precipitation and flow encourage us to provide the following analysis as a simple prediction of this year’s river flows.

Morphological divergence and flow-induced phenotypic plasticity in a native fish from anthropogenically altered stream habitats.

PubMed

Franssen, Nathan R; Stewart, Laura K; Schaefer, Jacob F

2013-11-01

Understanding population-level responses to human-induced changes to habitats can elucidate the evolutionary consequences of rapid habitat alteration. Reservoirs constructed on streams expose stream fishes to novel selective pressures in these habitats. Assessing the drivers of trait divergence facilitated by these habitats will help identify evolutionary and ecological consequences of reservoir habitats. We tested for morphological divergence in a stream fish that occupies both stream and reservoir habitats. To assess contributions of genetic-level differences and phenotypic plasticity induced by flow variation, we spawned and reared individuals from both habitats types in flow and no flow conditions. Body shape significantly and consistently diverged in reservoir habitats compared with streams; individuals from reservoirs were shallower bodied with smaller heads compared with individuals from streams. Significant population-level differences in morphology persisted in offspring but morphological variation compared with field-collected individuals was limited to the head region. Populations demonstrated dissimilar flow-induced phenotypic plasticity when reared under flow, but phenotypic plasticity in response to flow variation was an unlikely explanation for observed phenotypic divergence in the field. Our results, together with previous investigations, suggest the environmental conditions currently thought to drive morphological change in reservoirs (i.e., predation and flow regimes) may not be the sole drivers of phenotypic change.

Low-flow characteristics of streams in the Puget Sound region, Washington

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hidaka, F.T.

1973-01-01

Periods of low streamflow are usually the most critical factor in relation to most water uses. The purpose of this report is to present data on low-flow characteristics of streams in the Puget Sound region, Washington, and to briefly explain some of the factors that influence low flow in the various basins. Presented are data on low-flow frequencies of streams in the Puget Sound region, as gathered at 150 gaging stations. Four indexes were computed from the flow-flow-frequency curves and were used as a basis to compare the low-flow characteristics of the streams. The indexes are the (1) low-flow-yield index, expressed in unit runoff per square mile; (2) base-flow index, or the ratio of the median 7-day low flow to the average discharge; (3) slope index, or slope of annual 7-day low-flow-frequency curve; and (4) spacing index, or spread between the 7-day and 183-day low-flow-frequency curves. The indexes showed a wide variation between streams due to the complex interrelation between climate, topography, and geology. The largest low-flow-yield indexes determined--greater than 1.5 cfs (cubic feet per second) per square mile--were for streams that head at high altitudes in the Cascade and Olympic Mountains and have their sources at glaciers. The smallest low-flow-yield indexes--less than 0.5 cfs per square mile--were for the small streams that drain the lowlands adjacent to Puget Sound. Indexes between the two extremes were for nonglacial streams that head at fairly high altitudes in areas of abundant precipitation. The base-flow index has variations that can be attributed to a basin's hydrogeology, with very little influence from climate. The largest base-flow indexes were obtained for streams draining permeable unconsolidated glacial and alluvial sediments in parts of the lowlands adjacent to Puget Sound. Large volume of ground water in these materials sustain flows during late summer. The smallest indexes were computed for streams draining areas underlain by relatively impermeable igneous, sedimentary, and metamorphic rocks or by relatively impermeable glacial till. Melt water from snow and ice influences the index for streams which originate at glaciers, and result in fairly large indexes--0.25 or greater. The slope index is influenced principally by the character of the geologic materials that underlie the basin. The largest slope indexes were computed for small streams that drain areas underlain by compact glacial till or consolidated sedimentary rocks. In contrast, lowland streams that flow through areas underlain by unconsolidated alluvia and glacial deposits have the smallest indexes. Small slope indexes also are characteristic of glacial streams and show the moderating effect of the snow and ice storage in the high mountain basins. The spacing indexes are similar to the slope indexes in that they are affected by the character of the geologic materials underlying a basin. The largest spacing indexes are characteristic of small streams whose basins are underlain by glacial till or by consolidated sedimentary rocks. The smallest indexes were computed for some lowland streams draining areas underlain by permeable glacial and alluvial sediments. The indexes do not appear to have a definite relation to each other. The low-flow-yield indexes are not related to either the slope or spacing indexes because snow and ice storage has a great influence on the low-flow-yield index, while the character of the geologic materials influences the slope and spacing indexes. A relation exists between the slope and spacing indexes but many anomalies occur that cannot be explained by the geology of the basins.

Evaluating the reliability of the stream tracer approach to characterize stream-subsurface water exchange

USGS Publications Warehouse

Harvey, Judson W.; Wagner, Brian J.; Bencala, Kenneth E.

1996-01-01

Stream water was locally recharged into shallow groundwater flow paths that returned to the stream (hyporheic exchange) in St. Kevin Gulch, a Rocky Mountain stream in Colorado contaminated by acid mine drainage. Two approaches were used to characterize hyporheic exchange: sub-reach-scale measurement of hydraulic heads and hydraulic conductivity to compute streambed fluxes (hydrometric approach) and reachscale modeling of in-stream solute tracer injections to determine characteristic length and timescales of exchange with storage zones (stream tracer approach). Subsurface data were the standard of comparison used to evaluate the reliability of the stream tracer approach to characterize hyporheic exchange. The reach-averaged hyporheic exchange flux (1.5 mL s−1 m−1), determined by hydrometric methods, was largest when stream base flow was low (10 L s−1); hyporheic exchange persisted when base flow was 10-fold higher, decreasing by approximately 30%. Reliability of the stream tracer approach to detect hyporheic exchange was assessed using first-order uncertainty analysis that considered model parameter sensitivity. The stream tracer approach did not reliably characterize hyporheic exchange at high base flow: the model was apparently more sensitive to exchange with surface water storage zones than with the hyporheic zone. At low base flow the stream tracer approach reliably characterized exchange between the stream and gravel streambed (timescale of hours) but was relatively insensitive to slower exchange with deeper alluvium (timescale of tens of hours) that was detected by subsurface measurements. The stream tracer approach was therefore not equally sensitive to all timescales of hyporheic exchange. We conclude that while the stream tracer approach is an efficient means to characterize surface-subsurface exchange, future studies will need to more routinely consider decreasing sensitivities of tracer methods at higher base flow and a potential bias toward characterizing only a fast component of hyporheic exchange. Stream tracer models with multiple rate constants to consider both fast exchange with streambed gravel and slower exchange with deeper alluvium appear to be warranted.

Iowa Flood Information System: Towards Integrated Data Management, Analysis and Visualization

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.; Goska, R.; Mantilla, R.; Weber, L. J.; Young, N.

2012-04-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 500 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities in advance to help minimize damage of floods. This presentation provides an overview and live demonstration of the tools and interfaces in the IFIS developed to date to provide a platform for one-stop access to flood related data, visualizations, flood conditions, and forecast.

Iowa Flood Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, I.; Krajewski, W. F.; Goska, R.; Mantilla, R.; Weber, L. J.; Young, N.

2011-12-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 500 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities in advance to help minimize damage of floods. This presentation provides an overview of the tools and interfaces in the IFIS developed to date to provide a platform for one-stop access to flood related data, visualizations, flood conditions, and forecast.

Flood Risk Management in Iowa through an Integrated Flood Information System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Demir, Ibrahim; Krajewski, Witold

2013-04-01

The Iowa Flood Information System (IFIS) is a web-based platform developed by the Iowa Flood Center (IFC) to provide access to flood inundation maps, real-time flood conditions, flood forecasts both short-term and seasonal, flood-related data, information and interactive visualizations for communities in Iowa. The key element of the system's architecture is the notion of community. Locations of the communities, those near streams and rivers, define basin boundaries. The IFIS provides community-centric watershed and river characteristics, weather (rainfall) conditions, and streamflow data and visualization tools. Interactive interfaces allow access to inundation maps for different stage and return period values, and flooding scenarios with contributions from multiple rivers. Real-time and historical data of water levels, gauge heights, and rainfall conditions are available in the IFIS by streaming data from automated IFC bridge sensors, USGS stream gauges, NEXRAD radars, and NWS forecasts. Simple 2D and 3D interactive visualizations in the IFIS make the data more understandable to general public. Users are able to filter data sources for their communities and selected rivers. The data and information on IFIS is also accessible through web services and mobile applications. The IFIS is optimized for various browsers and screen sizes to provide access through multiple platforms including tablets and mobile devices. The IFIS includes a rainfall-runoff forecast model to provide a five-day flood risk estimate for around 1100 communities in Iowa. Multiple view modes in the IFIS accommodate different user types from general public to researchers and decision makers by providing different level of tools and details. River view mode allows users to visualize data from multiple IFC bridge sensors and USGS stream gauges to follow flooding condition along a river. The IFIS will help communities make better-informed decisions on the occurrence of floods, and will alert communities in advance to help minimize damage of floods. This presentation provides an overview and live demonstration of the tools and interfaces in the IFIS developed to date to provide a platform for one-stop access to flood related data, visualizations, flood conditions, and forecast.

Identify temporal trend of air temperature and its impact on forest stream flow in Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley using wavelet analysis

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Characterization of stream flow is essential to water resource management, water supply planning, environmental protection, and ecological restoration; while climate change can exacerbate stream flow and add instability to the flow. In this study, the wavelet analysis technique was employed to asse...

The long term response of stream flow to climatic warming in headwater streams of interior Alaska

Treesearch

Jeremy B. Jones; Amanda J. Rinehart

2010-01-01

Warming in the boreal forest of interior Alaska will have fundamental impacts on stream ecosystems through changes in stream hydrology resulting from upslope loss of permafrost, alteration of availability of soil moisture, and the distribution of vegetation. We examined stream flow in three headwater streams of the Caribou-Poker Creeks Research Watershed (CPCRW) in...

Methods for estimating flow-duration curve and low-flow frequency statistics for ungaged locations on small streams in Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ziegeweid, Jeffrey R.; Lorenz, David L.; Sanocki, Chris A.; Czuba, Christiana R.

2015-12-24

Equations developed in this study apply only to stream locations where flows are not substantially affected by regulation, diversion, or urbanization. All equations presented in this study will be incorporated into StreamStats, a web-based geographic information system tool developed by the U.S. Geological Survey. StreamStats allows users to obtain streamflow statistics, basin characteristics, and other information for user-selected locations on streams through an interactive map.

Quantifying spatial and temporal patterns of flow intermittency using spatially contiguous runoff data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu (于松延), Songyan; Bond, Nick R.; Bunn, Stuart E.; Xu, Zongxue; Kennard, Mark J.

2018-04-01

River channel drying caused by intermittent stream flow is a widely-recognized factor shaping stream ecosystems. There is a strong need to quantify the distribution of intermittent streams across catchments to inform management. However, observational gauge networks provide only point estimates of streamflow variation. Increasingly, this limitation is being overcome through the use of spatially contiguous estimates of the terrestrial water-balance, which can also assist in estimating runoff and streamflow at large-spatial scales. Here we proposed an approach to quantifying spatial and temporal variation in monthly flow intermittency throughout river networks in eastern Australia. We aggregated gridded (5 × 5 km) monthly water-balance data with a hierarchically nested catchment dataset to simulate catchment runoff accumulation throughout river networks from 1900 to 2016. We also predicted zero flow duration for the entire river network by developing a robust predictive model relating measured zero flow duration (% months) to environmental predictor variables (based on 43 stream gauges). We then combined these datasets by using the predicted zero flow duration from the regression model to determine appropriate 'zero' flow thresholds for the modelled discharge data, which varied spatially across the catchments examined. Finally, based on modelled discharge data and identified actual zero flow thresholds, we derived summary metrics describing flow intermittency across the catchment (mean flow duration and coefficient-of-variation in flow permanence from 1900 to 2016). We also classified the relative degree of flow intermittency annually to characterise temporal variation in flow intermittency. Results showed that the degree of flow intermittency varied substantially across streams in eastern Australia, ranging from perennial streams flowing permanently (11-12 months) to strongly intermittent streams flowing 4 months or less of year. Results also showed that the temporal extent of flow intermittency varied dramatically inter-annually from 1900 to 2016, with the proportion of intermittent (weakly and strongly intermittent) streams ranging in length from 3% to nearly 100% of the river network, but there was no evidence of an increasing trend towards flow intermittency over this period. Our approach to generating spatially explicit and catchment-wide estimates of streamflow intermittency can facilitate improved ecological understanding and management of intermittent streams in Australia and around the world.

Flood-inundation maps for a nine-mile reach of the Des Plaines River from Riverwoods to Mettawa, Illinois

USGS Publications Warehouse

Murphy, Elizabeth A.; Soong, David T.; Sharpe, Jennifer B.

2012-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for a 9-mile reach of the Des Plaines River from Riverwoods to Mettawa, Illinois, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Lake County Stormwater Management Commission and the Villages of Lincolnshire and Riverwoods. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (gage heights) at the USGS streamgage at Des Plaines River at Lincolnshire, Illinois (station no. 05528100). Current conditions at the USGS streamgage may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?05528100. In addition, this streamgage is incorporated into the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system (http://water.weather.gov/ahps/) by the National Weather Service (NWS). The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often co-located at USGS streamgages. The NWS forecasted peak-stage information, also shown on the Des Plaines River at Lincolnshire inundation Web site, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. In this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reach by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The hydraulic model was then used to determine seven water-surface profiles for flood stages at roughly 1-ft intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from the 50- to 0.2-percent annual exceedance probability flows. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a Geographic Information System (GIS) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) (derived from Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. These maps, along with information on the Internet regarding current gage height from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS, provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures, as well as for post-flood recovery efforts.

Resonance and streaming of armored microbubbles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spelman, Tamsin; Bertin, Nicolas; Stephen, Olivier; Marmottant, Philippe; Lauga, Eric

2015-11-01

A new experimental technique involves building a hollow capsule which partially encompasses a microbubble, creating an ``armored microbubble'' with long lifespan. Under acoustic actuation, such bubble produces net streaming flows. In order to theoretically model the induced flow, we first extend classical models of free bubbles to describe the streaming flow around a spherical body for any known axisymmetric shape oscillation. A potential flow model is then employed to determine the resonance modes of the armored microbubble. We finally use a more detailed viscous model to calculate the surface shape oscillations at the experimental driving frequency, and from this we predict the generated streaming flows.

Slip stream apparatus and method for treating water in a circulating water system

DOEpatents

Cleveland, J.R.

1997-03-18

An apparatus is described for treating water in a circulating water system that has a cooling water basin which includes a slip stream conduit in flow communication with the circulating water system, a source of acid solution in flow communication with the slip stream conduit, and a decarbonator in flow communication with the slip stream conduit and the cooling water basin. In use, a slip stream of circulating water is drawn from the circulating water system into the slip stream conduit of the apparatus. The slip stream pH is lowered by contact with an acid solution provided from the source thereof. The slip stream is then passed through a decarbonator to form a treated slip stream, and the treated slip stream is returned to the cooling water basin. 4 figs.

Perched groundwater-surface interactions and their consequences in stream flow generation in a semi-arid headwater catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molenat, Jerome; Bouteffeha, Maroua; Raclot, Damien; Bouhlila, Rachida

2013-04-01

In semi-arid headwater catchment, it is usually admitted that stream flow comes predominantly from Hortonian overland flow (infiltration excess overland flow). Consequently, subsurface flow processes, and especially perched or shallow groundwater flow, have not been studied extensively. Here we made the assumption that perched groundwater flow could play a significant role in stream flow generation in semi-arid catchment. To test this assumption, we analyzed stream flow time series of a headwater catchment in the Tunisian Cap Bon region and quantified the flow fraction coming from groundwater discharge and that from overland flow. Furthermore, the dynamics of the perched groundwater was analyzed, by focusing on the different perched groundwater-surface interaction processes : diffuse and local infiltration, diffuse exfiltration, and direct groundwater discharge to the stream channel. This work is based on the 2.6 km² Kamech catchment (Tunisia), which belongs to the long term Mediterranean hydrological observatory OMERE (Voltz and Albergel, 2002). Results show that even though Hortonian overland flow was the main hydrological process governing the stream flow generation, groundwater discharge contribution to the stream channel annually accounted for from 10% to 20 % depending on the year. Furthermore, at some periods, rising of groundwater table to the soil surface in bottom land areas provided evidences of the occurrence of saturation excess overland flow processes during some storm events. Reference Voltz , M. and Albergel , J., 2002. OMERE : Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Environnement Rural et de l'Eau - Impact des actions anthropiques sur les transferts de masse dans les hydrosystèmes méditerranéens ruraux. Proposition d'Observatoire de Recherche en Environnement, Ministère de la Recherche.

Availability and Distribution of Base Flow in Lower Honokohau Stream, Island of Maui

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fontaine, Richard A.

2003-01-01

Honokohau Stream is one of the few perennial streams in the Lahaina District of West Maui. Current Honokohau water-use practices often lead to conflicts among water users, which are most evident during periods of base flow. To better manage the resource, data are needed that describe the availability and distribution of base flow in lower Honokohau Stream and how base flow is affected by streamflow diversion and return-flow practices. Flow-duration discharges for percentiles ranging from 50 to 95 percent were estimated at 13 locations on lower Honokohau Stream using data from a variety of sources. These sources included (1) available U.S. Geological Survey discharge data, (2) published summaries of Maui Land & Pineapple Company, Inc. diversion and water development-tunnel data, (3) seepage run and low-flow partial-record discharge measurements made for this study, and (4) current (2003) water diversion and return-flow practices. These flow-duration estimates provide a detailed characterization of the distribution and availability of base flow in lower Honokohau Stream. Estimates of base-flow statistics indicate the significant effect of Honokohau Ditch diversions on flow in the stream. Eighty-six percent of the total flow upstream from the ditch is diverted from the stream. Immediately downstream from the diversion dam there is no flow in the stream 91.2 percent of the time, except for minor leakage through the dam. Flow releases at the Taro Gate, from Honokohau Ditch back into the stream, are inconsistent and were found to be less than the target release of 1.55 cubic feet per second on 9 of the 10 days on which measurements were made. Previous estimates of base-flow availability downstream from the Taro Gate release range from 2.32 to 4.6 cubic feet per second (1.5 to 3.0 million gallons per day). At the two principal sites where water is currently being diverted for agricultural use in the valley (MacDonald's and Chun's Dams), base flows of 2.32 cubic feet per second (1.5 million gallons per day) are available more than 95 percent of the time at MacDonald's Dam and 80 percent of the time at Chun's Dam. Base flows of 4.6 cubic feet per second (3.0 million gallons per day) are available 65 and 56 percent of the time, respectively. A base-flow water-accounting model was developed to estimate how flow-duration discharges for 13 sites on Honokohau Stream would change in response to a variety of flow release and diversion practices. A sample application of the model indicates that there is a 1 to 1 relation between changes in flow release rates at the Taro Gate and base flow upstream from MacDonald's Dam. At Chun's Dam the relation between Taro Gate releases and base flow varies with flow-duration percentiles. At the 95th and 60th percentiles, differences in base flow at Chun's Dam would equal about 50 and 90 percent of the change at the Taro Gate.

Estimation and prediction of origin-destination matrices for I-66.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-01

This project uses the Box-Jenkins time-series technique to model and forecast the traffic flows and then : uses the flow forecasts to predict the origin-destination matrices. First, a detailed analysis was conducted : to investigate the best data cor...

Characterization and classification of invertebrates as indicators of flow permanence in headwater streams

EPA Science Inventory

Headwater streams represent a large proportion of river networks and many have temporary flow. Litigation has questioned whether these streams are jurisdictional under the Clean Water Act. Our goal was to identify indicators of flow permanence by comparing invertebrate assemblage...

Discharge data assimilation in a distributed hydrologic model for flood forecasting purposes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ercolani, G.; Castelli, F.

2017-12-01

Flood early warning systems benefit from accurate river flow forecasts, and data assimilation may improve their reliability. However, the actual enhancement that can be obtained in the operational practice should be investigated in detail and quantified. In this work we assess the benefits that the simultaneous assimilation of discharge observations at multiple locations can bring to flow forecasting through a distributed hydrologic model. The distributed model, MOBIDIC, is part of the operational flood forecasting chain of Tuscany Region in Central Italy. The assimilation system adopts a mixed variational-Monte Carlo approach to update efficiently initial river flow, soil moisture, and a parameter related to runoff production. The evaluation of the system is based on numerous hindcast experiments of real events. The events are characterized by significant rainfall that resulted in both high and relatively low flow in the river network. The area of study is the main basin of Tuscany Region, i.e. Arno river basin, which extends over about 8300 km2 and whose mean annual precipitation is around 800 mm. Arno's mainstream, with its nearly 240 km length, passes through major Tuscan cities, as Florence and Pisa, that are vulnerable to floods (e.g. flood of November 1966). The assimilation tests follow the usage of the model in the forecasting chain, employing the operational resolution in both space and time (500 m and 15 minutes respectively) and releasing new flow forecasts every 6 hours. The assimilation strategy is evaluated in respect to open loop simulations, i.e. runs that do not exploit discharge observations through data assimilation. We compare hydrographs in their entirety, as well as classical performance indexes, as error on peak flow and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency. The dependence of performances on lead time and location is assessed. Results indicate that the operational forecasting chain can benefit from the developed assimilation system, although with a significant variability due to the specific characteristics of any single event, and with downstream locations more sensitive to observations than upstream sites.

Evaluation of medium-range ensemble flood forecasting based on calibration strategies and ensemble methods in Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Gao, Chao; Xuan, Weidong; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-11-01

Ensemble flood forecasts by hydrological models using numerical weather prediction products as forcing data are becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications. In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system comprised of an automatically calibrated Variable Infiltration Capacity model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated. The hydrological model is optimized by the parallel programmed ε-NSGA II multi-objective algorithm. According to the solutions by ε-NSGA II, two differently parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows at each of the three hydrological stations. Then a simple yet effective modular approach is proposed to combine these daily and peak flows at the same station into one composite series. Five ensemble methods and various evaluation metrics are adopted. The results show that ε-NSGA II can provide an objective determination on parameter estimation, and the parallel program permits a more efficient simulation. It is also demonstrated that the forecasts from ECMWF have more favorable skill scores than other Ensemble Prediction Systems. The multimodel ensembles have advantages over all the single model ensembles and the multimodel methods weighted on members and skill scores outperform other methods. Furthermore, the overall performance at three stations can be satisfactory up to ten days, however the hydrological errors can degrade the skill score by approximately 2 days, and the influence persists until a lead time of 10 days with a weakening trend. With respect to peak flows selected by the Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from single models or multimodels are generally underestimated, indicating that the ensemble mean can bring overall improvement in forecasting of flows. For peak values taking flood forecasts from each individual member into account is more appropriate.

IMPACTS OF LAND USE ON HYDROLOGIC FLOW PERMANENCE IN HEADWATER STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

Extensive urbanization in the watershed can alter the stream hydrology by increasing peak runoff frequency and reducing base flows, causing subsequent impairment of stream community structure. In addition, development effectively eliminates some headwater streams, being piped an...

Bed-material entrainment and associated transportation infrastructure problems in streams of the Edwards Plateau, central Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heitmuller, Franklin T.; Asquith, William H.

2008-01-01

The Texas Department of Transportation commonly builds and maintains low-water crossings (LWCs) over streams in the Edwards Plateau in Central Texas. LWCs are low-height structures, typically constructed of concrete and asphalt, that provide acceptable passage over seasonal rivers or streams with relatively low normal-depth flow. They are designed to accommodate flow by roadway overtopping during high-flow events. The streams of the Edwards Plateau are characterized by cobble- and gravel-sized bed material and highly variable flow regimes. Low base flows that occur most of the time occasionally are interrupted by severe floods. The floods entrain and transport substantial loads of bed material in the stream channels. As a result, LWCs over streams in the Edwards Plateau are bombarded and abraded by bed material during floods and periodically must be maintained or even replaced.

Geology, Streamflow, and Water Chemistry of the Talufofo Stream Basin, Saipan, Northern Mariana Islands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Izuka, Scot K.; Ewart, Charles J.

1995-01-01

A study of the geology, streamflow, and water chemistry of Talufofo Stream Basin, Saipan, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, was undertaken to determine the flow characteristics of Talufofo Stream and the relation to the geology of the drainage basin. The Commonwealth government is exploring the feasibility of using water from Talufofo Stream to supplement Saipan's stressed municipal water supply. Streamflow records from gaging stations on the principal forks of Talufofo Stream indicate that peak streamflows and long-term average flow are higher at the South Fork gaging station than at the Middle Fork gaging station because the drainage area of the South Fork gaging station is larger, but persistent base flow from ground-water discharge during dry weather is greater in the Middle Fork gaging station. The sum of the average flows at the Middle Fork and South Fork gaging stations, plus an estimate of the average flow at a point in the lower reaches of the North Fork, is about 2.96 cubic feet per second or 1.91 million gallons per day. Although this average represents the theoretical maximum long-term draft rate possible from the Talufofo Stream Basin if an adequate reservoir can be built, the actual amount of surface water available will be less because of evaporation, leaks, induced infiltration, and reservoir-design constraints. Base-flow characteristics, such as stream seepage and spring discharge, are related to geology of the basin. Base flow in the Talufofo Stream Basin originates as discharge from springs near the base of limestones located in the headwaters of Talufofo Stream, flows over low-permeability volcanic rocks in the middle reaches, and seeps back into the high-permeability limestones in the lower reaches. Water sampled from Talufofo Stream during base flow had high dissolved-calcium concentrations (between 35 and 98 milligrams per liter), characteristic of water from a limestone aquifer. Concentrations of potassium, sodium, and chloride ions in water samples from Talufofo Stream are characteristic of water draining a heavily vegetated basin near the ocean. The streamflow and water-chemistry data indicate that discharge from springs is in hydraulic connection with the limestone aquifer near the headwaters of the basin. The base flow therefore is subject to stresses placed on the nearby limestone ground-water system. Pumping from wells in the limestones at the headwaters of Talufofo Stream Basin may decrease spring flow in Talufofo Stream.

Assessment of a new seasonal to inter-annual operational Great Lakes water supply, water levels, and connecting channel flow forecasting system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gronewold, A.; Fry, L. M.; Hunter, T.; Pei, L.; Smith, J.; Lucier, H.; Mueller, R.

2017-12-01

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) has recently operationalized a suite of ensemble forecasts of Net Basin Supply (NBS), water levels, and connecting channel flows that was developed through a collaboration among USACE, NOAA's Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, Ontario Power Generation (OPG), New York Power Authority (NYPA), and the Niagara River Control Center (NRCC). These forecasts are meant to provide reliable projections of potential extremes in daily discharge in the Niagara and St. Lawrence Rivers over a long time horizon (5 years). The suite of forecasts includes eight configurations that vary by (a) NBS model configuration, (b) meteorological forcings, and (c) incorporation of seasonal climate projections through the use of weighting. Forecasts are updated on a weekly basis, and represent the first operational forecasts of Great Lakes water levels and flows that span daily to inter-annual horizons and employ realistic regulation logic and lake-to-lake routing. We will present results from a hindcast assessment conducted during the transition from research to operation, as well as early indications of success rates determined through operational verification of forecasts. Assessment will include an exploration of the relative skill of various forecast configurations at different time horizons and the potential for application to hydropower decision making and Great Lakes water management.

Artificial intelligence techniques coupled with seasonality measures for hydrological regionalization of Q90 under Brazilian conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beskow, Samuel; de Mello, Carlos Rogério; Vargas, Marcelle M.; Corrêa, Leonardo de L.; Caldeira, Tamara L.; Durães, Matheus F.; de Aguiar, Marilton S.

2016-10-01

Information on stream flows is essential for water resources management. The stream flow that is equaled or exceeded 90% of the time (Q90) is one the most used low stream flow indicators in many countries, and its determination is made from the frequency analysis of stream flows considering a historical series. However, stream flow gauging network is generally not spatially sufficient to meet the necessary demands of technicians, thus the most plausible alternative is the use of hydrological regionalization. The objective of this study was to couple the artificial intelligence techniques (AI) K-means, Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM), K-harmonic means (KHM), Fuzzy C-means (FCM) and Genetic K-means (GKA), with measures of low stream flow seasonality, for verification of its potential to delineate hydrologically homogeneous regions for the regionalization of Q90. For the performance analysis of the proposed methodology, location attributes from 108 watersheds situated in southern Brazil, and attributes associated with their seasonality of low stream flows were considered in this study. It was concluded that: (i) AI techniques have the potential to delineate hydrologically homogeneous regions in the context of Q90 in the study region, especially the FCM method based on fuzzy logic, and GKA, based on genetic algorithms; (ii) the attributes related to seasonality of low stream flows added important information that increased the accuracy of the grouping; and (iii) the adjusted mathematical models have excellent performance and can be used to estimate Q90 in locations lacking monitoring.

Hydro-ecological degradation due to human impacts in the Twin Streams Watershed, Auckland, New Zealand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torrecillas Nunez, C.; Miguel-rodriguez, A.

2012-12-01

As a collaborative project between the Faculties of Engineering of the University of Sinaloa, Mexico and the University of Auckland, an inter-disciplinary team researched historical information, monitoring results and modelling completed over the last ten years to establish the cause-effect relationship of development and human impacts in the watershed and recommend strategies to offset them .The research program analyzed the performance of the Twin Streams watershed over time with modelling of floods, hydrological disturbance indicators, analysis of water quality and ecological information, cost / benefit, harbor modelling and contaminant loads. The watershed is located in the west of Auckland and comprises 10,356 hectare: 8.19% ecologically protected area, 29.70% buffer zone, 6.67% peri-urban, 30.98% urban, 16.04% parks, and 8.42% other; average impermeability is 19.1%. Current population is 129,475 (2011) forecast to grow to 212,798 by 2051. The watershed includes 317.5 km of streams that drain to the Waitemata Harbor. The human impact can be traced back to the 1850s when the colonial settlers logged the native forests, dammed streams and altered the channel hydro-ecology resulting in significant erosion, sediment and changes to flows. In the early 1900s native vegetation started to regenerate in the headwaters, while agriculture and horticulture become established in rest of the watershed leading to the use of quite often very harmful pesticides and insecticides, such as DDT which is still detected in current environmental monitoring programs, and more erosion and channel alterations. As land become unproductive in the 1950s it stared to be urbanized, followed by more intensive urban development in the 1990s. Curiously there was no regulatory regime to control land use in the early stages and consequently over 400 houses were built in the floodplains, as well there were no legislation to control environmental impacts until 1991. Consequently today there is a wide range of impacts due to human actions which will exacerbated by future development as the population in the watershed is forecast to increase by at least 65% and the likely impacts of global warming. The rural watershed generates sediment which smothers the streams and harbor, while the urban watershed is the source of point and diffuse contamination with heavy metals which damage ecosystems. Evidence of impacts is given by the extent of flooding, reduced ecological flows and sampling results showing that more than 50% of the sites do not comply with environmental guidelines for: water clarity, turbidity, suspended solids, nitrogen, phosphorus, copper, zinc, conductivity, Dieldrin, DDT, Dissolved Oxygen, E.Coli, macroinvertebrates ,etc. , with water quality deteriorating progressively downstream where there is greater urbanization. But perhaps the most stunning evidence of the impacts was established by comparing aerial photographs of the 1940s and 2006 and seeing the build-up of sediments in the estuaries, the change in vegetation cover and discolored water. It is highly likely that the tipping point was reached before urbanization started but there is no doubt that urban development has accelerated the impacts, which has been corroborated by studies in other watersheds in Auckland.

Effects of chronic pollution and water flow intermittency on stream biofilms biodegradation capacity.

PubMed

Rožman, Marko; Acuña, Vicenç; Petrović, Mira

2018-02-01

A mesocosm case study was conducted to gain understanding and practical knowledge on biofilm emerging contaminants biodegradation capacity under stressor and multiple stressor conditions. Two real life scenarios: I) biodegradation in a pristine intermittent stream experiencing acute pollution and II) biodegradation in a chronically polluted intermittent stream, were examined via a multifactorial experiment using an artificial stream facility. Stream biofilms were exposed to different water flow conditions i.e. permanent and intermittent water flow. Venlafaxine, a readily biodegradable pharmaceutical was used as a measure of biodegradation capacity while pollution was simulated by a mixture of four emerging contaminants (erythromycin, sulfisoxazole, diclofenac and imidacloprid in addition to venlafaxine) in environmentally relevant concentrations. Biodegradation kinetics monitored via LC-MS/MS was established, statistically evaluated, and used to link biodegradation with stress events. The results suggest that the effects of intermittent flow do not hinder and may even stimulate pristine biofilm biodegradation capacity. Chronic pollution completely reduced biodegradation in permanent water flow experimental treatments while no change in intermittent streams was observed. A combined effect of water flow conditions and emerging contaminants exposure on biodegradation was found. The decrease in biodegradation due to exposure to emerging contaminants is significantly greater in streams with permanent water flow suggesting that the short and medium term biodegradation capacity in intermittent systems may be preserved or even greater than in perennial streams. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Capacitance probe for fluid flow and volume measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arndt, G. Dickey (Inventor); Nguyen, Thanh X. (Inventor); Carl, James R. (Inventor)

1995-01-01

Method and apparatus for making measurements on fluids are disclosed, including the use of a capacitive probe for measuring the flow volume of a material within a flow stream. The capacitance probe has at least two elongate electrodes and, in a specific embodiment of the invention, has three parallel elongate electrodes with the center electrode being an extension of the center conductor of a co-axial cable. A conductance probe is also provided to provide more accurate flow volume data in response to conductivity of the material within the flow stream. A preferred embodiment of the present invention provides for a gas flow stream through a microgravity environment that allows for monitoring a flow volume of a fluid sample, such as a urine sample, that is entrained within the gas flow stream.

Capacitance Probe for Fluid Flow and Volume Measurements

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Arndt, G. Dickey (Inventor); Nguyen, Thanh X. (Inventor); Carl, James R. (Inventor)

1997-01-01

Method and apparatus for making measurements on fluids are disclosed, including the use of a capacitive probe for measuring the flow volume of a material within a flow stream. The capacitance probe has at least two elongate electrodes and, in a specific embodiment of the invention, has three parallel elongate electrodes with the center electrode being an extension of the center conductor of a co-axial cable. A conductance probe is also provided to provide more accurate flow volume data in response to conductivity of the material within the flow stream. A preferred embodiment of the present invention provides for a gas flow stream through a micro-gravity environment that allows for monitoring a flow volume of a fluid sample, such as a urine sample, that is entrained within the gas flow stream.

Riparian indicators of flow frequency in a tropical montante stream network

Treesearch

Andrew S. Pike; Frederick N. Scatena

2010-01-01

Many field indicators have been used to approximate the magnitude and frequency of flows in a variety of streams and rivers, yet due to a scarcity of long-term flow records in tropical mountain streams, little to no work has been done to establish such relationships between field features and the flow regime in these environments. Furthermore, the transition between...

Low frequency vibration induced streaming in a Hele-Shaw cell

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Costalonga, M., E-mail: maxime.costalonga@univ-paris-diderot.fr; Laboratoire Matière et Systèmes Complexes, UMR CNRS 7057, Université Paris Diderot, 10 rue Alice Domon et Léonie Duquet, 75205 Paris cedex 13; Brunet, P.

When an acoustic wave propagates in a fluid, it can generate a second order flow whose characteristic time is much longer than the period of the wave. Within a range of frequency between ten and several hundred Hz, a relatively simple and versatile way to generate streaming flow is to put a vibrating object in the fluid. The flow develops vortices in the viscous boundary layer located in the vicinity of the source of vibrations, leading in turn to an outer irrotational streaming called Rayleigh streaming. Because the flow originates from non-linear time-irreversible terms of the Navier-Stokes equation, this phenomenonmore » can be used to generate efficient mixing at low Reynolds number, for instance in confined geometries. Here, we report on an experimental study of such streaming flow induced by a vibrating beam in a Hele-Shaw cell of 2 mm span using long exposure flow visualization and particle-image velocimetry measurements. Our study focuses especially on the effects of forcing frequency and amplitude on flow dynamics. It is shown that some features of this flow can be predicted by simple scaling arguments and that this vibration-induced streaming facilitates the generation of vortices.« less

Quantifying groundwater’s role in delaying improvements to Chesapeake Bay water quality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sanford, Ward E.; Pope, Jason P.

2013-01-01

A study has been undertaken to determine the time required for the effects of nitrogen-reducing best management practices (BMPs) implemented at the land surface to reach the Chesapeake Bay via groundwater transport to streams. To accomplish this, a nitrogen mass-balance regression (NMBR) model was developed and applied to seven watersheds on the Delmarva Peninsula. The model included the distribution of groundwater return times obtained from a regional groundwater-flow (GWF) model, the history of nitrogen application at the land surface over the last century, and parameters that account for denitrification. The model was (1) able to reproduce nitrate concentrations in streams and wells over time, including a recent decline in the rate at which concentrations have been increasing, and (2) used to forecast future nitrogen delivery from the Delmarva Peninsula to the Bay given different scenarios of nitrogen load reduction to the water table. The relatively deep porous aquifers of the Delmarva yield longer groundwater return times than those reported earlier for western parts of the Bay watershed. Accordingly, several decades will be required to see the full effects of current and future BMPs. The magnitude of this time lag is critical information for Chesapeake Bay watershed managers and stakeholders.

Transitioning the Rice Realtime Forecast Models to DSCOVR

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bala, R.; Reiff, P. H.

2016-12-01

The Rice realtime forecast models of global magnetospheric indices Kp, Dst and AE have been actively running at mms.rice.edu/realtime/forecast.html for nearly a decade now. These neural network models were trained using the ACE archival solar wind data while the near-realtime forecasts are provided using instantaneous upwind solar wind data stream measured at the L1 point through ACE. Additionally, the webpage also provide status of the current space weather condition as an additional resource, updating every ten minutes. Furthermore, the subscribers of our space weather alert system, called `spacalrt', have been receiving email notices based on predefined thresholds. One of the gaps that is currently seen in the Rice neural network models lies in the density dependent models using variants of the solar wind pressure. The anomalous behavior in reporting densities in ACE has been a common issue for some time now. Often such behavior is observed when the solar energetic particle that are associated with solar flares or CMEs are Earth directed. Therefore, it is understood that the subsequent measures of the density reported by ACE will be either very low or, at a minimum, contaminated. Under these circumstances, the density-based Rice models typically underpredict. However, the newly launched DSCOVR satellite will help enhance our prediction models with high-quality data; it has real time space weather data available through the NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center as of July, 2016. We are in the process of transitioning our forecast operations to include data from DSCOVR while running the original ACE data stream in parallel until it lasts. This paper will compare and contrast the forecasted values from the two satellites. Finally, we will discuss our efforts in providing the forecast products for the Rice space weather website that will be a part of the book on "Machine Learning Techniques for Space Weather" to be published by Elsiever.

A review and update of the Virginia Department of Transportation cash flow forecasting model.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1996-01-01

This report details the research done to review and update components of the VDOT cash flow forecasting model. Specifically, the study updated the monthly factors submodel used to predict payments on construction contracts. For the other submodel rev...

Exploratory studies into seasonal flow forecasting potential for large lakes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sene, Kevin; Tych, Wlodek; Beven, Keith

2018-01-01

In seasonal flow forecasting applications, one factor which can help predictability is a significant hydrological response time between rainfall and flows. On account of storage influences, large lakes therefore provide a useful test case although, due to the spatial scales involved, there are a number of modelling challenges related to data availability and understanding the individual components in the water balance. Here some possible model structures are investigated using a range of stochastic regression and transfer function techniques with additional insights gained from simple analytical approximations. The methods were evaluated using records for two of the largest lakes in the world - Lake Malawi and Lake Victoria - with forecast skill demonstrated several months ahead using water balance models formulated in terms of net inflows. In both cases slight improvements were obtained for lead times up to 4-5 months from including climate indices in the data assimilation component. The paper concludes with a discussion of the relevance of the results to operational flow forecasting systems for other large lakes.

Hourly runoff forecasting for flood risk management: Application of various computational intelligence models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Badrzadeh, Honey; Sarukkalige, Ranjan; Jayawardena, A. W.

2015-10-01

Reliable river flow forecasts play a key role in flood risk mitigation. Among different approaches of river flow forecasting, data driven approaches have become increasingly popular in recent years due to their minimum information requirements and ability to simulate nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of hydrological processes. In this study, attempts are made to apply four different types of data driven approaches, namely traditional artificial neural networks (ANN), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference systems (ANFIS), wavelet neural networks (WNN), and, hybrid ANFIS with multi resolution analysis using wavelets (WNF). Developed models applied for real time flood forecasting at Casino station on Richmond River, Australia which is highly prone to flooding. Hourly rainfall and runoff data were used to drive the models which have been used for forecasting with 1, 6, 12, 24, 36 and 48 h lead-time. The performance of models further improved by adding an upstream river flow data (Wiangaree station), as another effective input. All models perform satisfactorily up to 12 h lead-time. However, the hybrid wavelet-based models significantly outperforming the ANFIS and ANN models in the longer lead-time forecasting. The results confirm the robustness of the proposed structure of the hybrid models for real time runoff forecasting in the study area.

Traffic flow forecasting for intelligent transportation systems.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1995-01-01

The capability to forecast traffic volume in an operational setting has been identified as a critical need for intelligent transportation systems (ITS). In particular, traffic volume forecasts will directly support proactive traffic control and accur...

Study of Basin Recession Characteristics and Groundwater Storage Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yen-Bo, Chen; Cheng-Haw, Lee

2017-04-01

Stream flow and groundwater storage are freshwater resources that human live on.In this study, we discuss southern area basin recession characteristics and Kao-Ping River basin groundwater storage, and hope to supply reference to Taiwan water resource management. The first part of this study is about recession characteristics. We apply Brutsaert (2008) low flow analysis model to establish two recession data pieces sifting models, including low flow steady period model and normal condition model. Within individual event analysis, group event analysis and southern area basin recession assessment, stream flow and base flow recession characteristics are parameterized. The second part of this study is about groundwater storage. Among main basin in southern Taiwan, there are sufficient stream flow and precipitation gaging station data about Kao-Ping River basin and extensive drainage data, and data about different hydrological characteristics between upstream and downstream area. Therefore, this study focuses on Kao-Ping River basin and accesses groundwater storage properties. Taking residue of groundwater volume in dry season into consideration, we use base flow hydrograph to access periodical property of groundwater storage, in order to establish hydrological period conceptual model. With groundwater storage and precipitation accumulative linearity quantified by hydrological period conceptual model, their periodical changing and alternation trend properties in each drainage areas of Kao-Ping River basin have been estimated. Results of this study showed that the recession time of stream flow is related to initial flow rate of the recession events. The recession time index is lower when the flow is stream flow, not base flow, and the recession time index is higher in low flow steady flow period than in normal recession condition. By applying hydrological period conceptual model, groundwater storage could explicitly be analyzed and compared with precipitation, by only using stream flow data. Keywords: stream flow, base flow, recession characteristics, groundwater storage

Comparison of Hydrologic and Water-Quality Characteristics of Two Native Tallgrass Prairie Streams with Agricultural Streams in Missouri and Kansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Heimann, David C.

2009-01-01

This report presents the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Missouri Department of Natural Resources, to analyze and compare hydrologic and water-quality characteristics of tallgrass prairie and agricultural basins located within the historical distribution of tallgrass prairie in Missouri and Kansas. Streamflow and water-quality data from two remnant, tallgrass prairie basins (East Drywood Creek at Prairie State Park, Missouri, and Kings Creek near Manhattan, Kansas) were compared to similar data from agricultural basins in Missouri and Kansas. Prairie streams, especially Kings Creek in eastern Kansas, received a higher percentage of base flow and a lower percentage of direct runoff than similar-sized agricultural streams in the region. A larger contribution of direct runoff from the agricultural streams made them much flashier than prairie streams. During 22 years of record, the Kings Creek base-flow component averaged 66 percent of total flow, but base flow was only 16 to 26 percent of flows at agricultural sites of various record periods. The large base-flow component likely is the result of greater infiltration of precipitation in prairie soils and the resulting greater contribution of groundwater to streamflow. The 1- and 3-day annual maximum flows were significantly greater at three agricultural sites than at Kings Creek. The effects of flashier agricultural streams on native aquatic biota are unknown, but may be an important factor in the sustainability of some native aquatic species. There were no significant differences in the distribution of dissolved-oxygen concentrations at prairie and agricultural sites, and some samples from most sites fell below the 5 milligrams per liter Missouri and Kansas standard for the protection of aquatic life. More than 10 percent of samples from the East Drywood Creek prairie stream were less than this standard. These data indicate low dissolved-oxygen concentrations during summer low-flow periods may be a natural phenomenon for small prairie streams in the Osage Plains. Nutrient concentrations including total nitrogen, ammonia, nitrate, and total phosphorus were significantly less in base-flow and runoff samples from prairie streams than from agricultural streams. The total nitrogen concentration at all sites other than one of two prairie sampling sites were, on occasion, above the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommended criterion for total nitrogen for the prevention of nutrient enrichment, and typically were above this recommended criterion in runoff samples at all sites. Nitrate and total phosphorus concentrations in samples from the prairie streams generally were below the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency recommended nutrient criteria in base-flow and runoff samples, whereas samples from agricultural sites generally were below the criteria in base-flow samples and generally above in runoff samples. The lower concentrations of nutrient species in prairie streams is likely because prairies are not fertilized like agricultural basins and prairie basins are able to retain nutrients better than agricultural basins. This retention is enhanced by increased infiltration of precipitation into the prairie soils, decreased surface runoff, and likely less erosion than in agricultural basins. Streamflow in the small native prairie streams had more days of zero flow and lower streamflow yields than similar-sized agricultural streams. The prairie streams were at zero flow about 50 percent of the time, and the agricultural streams were at zero flow 25 to 35 percent of the time. Characteristics of the prairie basins that could account for the greater periods of zero flow and lower yields when compared to agricultural streams include greater infiltration, greater interception and evapotranspiration, shallower soils, and possible greater seepage losses in the prairie basins. Another difference between the prairie and agricultural strea

Slip stream apparatus and method for treating water in a circulating water system

DOEpatents

Cleveland, Joe R.

1997-01-01

An apparatus (10) for treating water in a circulating water system (12) t has a cooling water basin (14) includes a slip stream conduit (16) in flow communication with the circulating water system (12), a source (36) of acid solution in flow communication with the slip stream conduit (16), and a decarbonator (58) in flow communication with the slip stream conduit (16) and the cooling water basin (14). In use, a slip stream of circulating water is drawn from the circulating water system (12) into the slip stream conduit (16) of the apparatus (10). The slip stream pH is lowered by contact with an acid solution provided from the source (36) thereof. The slip stream is then passed through a decarbonator (58) to form a treated slip stream, and the treated slip stream is returned to the cooling water basin (14).

A gain-loss framework based on ensemble flow forecasts to switch the urban drainage-wastewater system management towards energy optimization during dry periods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courdent, Vianney; Grum, Morten; Munk-Nielsen, Thomas; Mikkelsen, Peter S.

2017-05-01

Precipitation is the cause of major perturbation to the flow in urban drainage and wastewater systems. Flow forecasts, generated by coupling rainfall predictions with a hydrologic runoff model, can potentially be used to optimize the operation of integrated urban drainage-wastewater systems (IUDWSs) during both wet and dry weather periods. Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models have significantly improved in recent years, having increased their spatial and temporal resolution. Finer resolution NWP are suitable for urban-catchment-scale applications, providing longer lead time than radar extrapolation. However, forecasts are inevitably uncertain, and fine resolution is especially challenging for NWP. This uncertainty is commonly addressed in meteorology with ensemble prediction systems (EPSs). Handling uncertainty is challenging for decision makers and hence tools are necessary to provide insight on ensemble forecast usage and to support the rationality of decisions (i.e. forecasts are uncertain and therefore errors will be made; decision makers need tools to justify their choices, demonstrating that these choices are beneficial in the long run). This study presents an economic framework to support the decision-making process by providing information on when acting on the forecast is beneficial and how to handle the EPS. The relative economic value (REV) approach associates economic values with the potential outcomes and determines the preferential use of the EPS forecast. The envelope curve of the REV diagram combines the results from each probability forecast to provide the highest relative economic value for a given gain-loss ratio. This approach is traditionally used at larger scales to assess mitigation measures for adverse events (i.e. the actions are taken when events are forecast). The specificity of this study is to optimize the energy consumption in IUDWS during low-flow periods by exploiting the electrical smart grid market (i.e. the actions are taken when no events are forecast). Furthermore, the results demonstrate the benefit of NWP neighbourhood post-processing methods to enhance the forecast skill and increase the range of beneficial uses.

40 CFR Table 13 to Subpart G of... - Wastewater-Monitoring Requirements for Control Devices

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

.... Carbon adsorber (regenerative) Integrating regeneration stream flow monitoring device having an accuracy of ±10 percent, and Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s) For each regeneration cycle, record the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow...

40 CFR Table 3 to Subpart Mmm of... - Monitoring Requirements for Control Devices a

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

.... Carbon adsorber (regenerative) Stream flow monitoring device, and 1. Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s) 1. For each regeneration cycle, record the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow. Carbon bed temperature monitoring device 2. Temperature of carbon...

40 CFR Table 13 to Subpart G of... - Wastewater-Monitoring Requirements for Control Devices

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

.... Carbon adsorber (regenerative) Integrating regeneration stream flow monitoring device having an accuracy of ±10 percent, and Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s) For each regeneration cycle, record the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow...

40 CFR Table 13 to Subpart G of... - Wastewater-Monitoring Requirements for Control Devices

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

.... Carbon adsorber (regenerative) Integrating regeneration stream flow monitoring device having an accuracy of ±10 percent, and Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s) For each regeneration cycle, record the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow...

40 CFR Table 3 to Subpart Mmm of... - Monitoring Requirements for Control Devices a

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

.... Carbon adsorber (regenerative) Stream flow monitoring device, and 1. Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s) 1. For each regeneration cycle, record the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow. Carbon bed temperature monitoring device 2. Temperature of carbon...

40 CFR Table 3 to Subpart Mmm of... - Monitoring Requirements for Control Devices a

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

.... Carbon adsorber (regenerative) Stream flow monitoring device, and 1. Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s) 1. For each regeneration cycle, record the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow. Carbon bed temperature monitoring device 2. Temperature of carbon...

40 CFR Table 13 to Subpart G of... - Wastewater-Monitoring Requirements for Control Devices

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

.... Carbon adsorber (regenerative) Integrating regeneration stream flow monitoring device having an accuracy of ±10 percent, and Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s) For each regeneration cycle, record the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow...

40 CFR Table 13 to Subpart G of... - Wastewater-Monitoring Requirements for Control Devices

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

.... Carbon adsorber (regenerative) Integrating regeneration stream flow monitoring device having an accuracy of ±10 percent, and Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s) For each regeneration cycle, record the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow...

Documentation of the Streamflow-Routing (SFR2) Package to Include Unsaturated Flow Beneath Streams - A Modification to SFR1

USGS Publications Warehouse

Niswonger, Richard G.; Prudic, David E.

2005-01-01

Many streams in the United States, especially those in semiarid regions, have reaches that are hydraulically disconnected from underlying aquifers. Ground-water withdrawals have decreased water levels in valley aquifers beneath streams, increasing the occurrence of disconnected streams and aquifers. The U.S. Geological Survey modular ground-water model (MODFLOW-2000) can be used to model these interactions using the Streamflow-Routing (SFR1) Package. However, the approach does not consider unsaturated flow between streams and aquifers and may not give realistic results in areas with significantly deep unsaturated zones. This documentation describes a method for extending the capabilities of MODFLOW-2000 by incorporating the ability to simulate unsaturated flow beneath streams. A kinematic-wave approximation to Richards' equation was solved by the method of characteristics to simulate unsaturated flow beneath streams in SFR1. This new package, called SFR2, includes all the capabilities of SFR1 and is designed to be used with MODFLOW-2000. Unlike SFR1, seepage loss from the stream may be restricted by the hydraulic conductivity of the unsaturated zone. Unsaturated flow is simulated independently of saturated flow within each model cell corresponding to a stream reach whenever the water table (head in MODFLOW) is below the elevation of the streambed. The relation between unsaturated hydraulic conductivity and water content is defined by the Brooks-Corey function. Unsaturated flow variables specified in SFR2 include saturated and initial water contents; saturated vertical hydraulic conductivity; and the Brooks-Corey exponent. These variables are defined independently for each stream reach. Unsaturated flow in SFR2 was compared to the U.S. Geological Survey's Variably Saturated Two-Dimensional Flow and Transport (VS2DT) Model for two test simulations. For both test simulations, results of the two models were in good agreement with respect to the magnitude and downward progression of a wetting front through an unsaturated column. A third hypothetical simulation is presented that includes interaction between a stream and aquifer separated by an unsaturated zone. This simulation is included to demonstrate the utility of unsaturated flow in SFR2 with MODFLOW-2000. This report includes a description of the data input requirements for simulating unsaturated flow in SFR2.

Effectiveness of the New Hampshire stream-gaging network in providing regional streamflow information

USGS Publications Warehouse

Olson, Scott A.

2003-01-01

The stream-gaging network in New Hampshire was analyzed for its effectiveness in providing regional information on peak-flood flow, mean-flow, and low-flow frequency. The data available for analysis were from stream-gaging stations in New Hampshire and selected stations in adjacent States. The principles of generalized-least-squares regression analysis were applied to develop regional regression equations that relate streamflow-frequency characteristics to watershed characteristics. Regression equations were developed for (1) the instantaneous peak flow with a 100-year recurrence interval, (2) the mean-annual flow, and (3) the 7-day, 10-year low flow. Active and discontinued stream-gaging stations with 10 or more years of flow data were used to develop the regression equations. Each stream-gaging station in the network was evaluated and ranked on the basis of how much the data from that station contributed to the cost-weighted sampling-error component of the regression equation. The potential effect of data from proposed and new stream-gaging stations on the sampling error also was evaluated. The stream-gaging network was evaluated for conditions in water year 2000 and for estimated conditions under various network strategies if an additional 5 years and 20 years of streamflow data were collected. The effectiveness of the stream-gaging network in providing regional streamflow information could be improved for all three flow characteristics with the collection of additional flow data, both temporally and spatially. With additional years of data collection, the greatest reduction in the average sampling error of the regional regression equations was found for the peak- and low-flow characteristics. In general, additional data collection at stream-gaging stations with unregulated flow, relatively short-term record (less than 20 years), and drainage areas smaller than 45 square miles contributed the largest cost-weighted reduction to the average sampling error of the regional estimating equations. The results of the network analyses can be used to prioritize the continued operation of active stations, the reactivation of discontinued stations, or the activation of new stations to maximize the regional information content provided by the stream-gaging network. Final decisions regarding altering the New Hampshire stream-gaging network would require the consideration of the many uses of the streamflow data serving local, State, and Federal interests.

A low cost strategy to monitor the expansion and contraction of the flowing stream network in mountainous headwater catchments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Assendelft, Rick; van Meerveld, Ilja; Seibert, Jan

2017-04-01

Streams are dynamic features in the landscape. The flowing stream network expands and contracts, connects and disconnects in response to rainfall events and seasonal changes in catchment wetness. Sections of the river system that experience these wet and dry cycles are often referred to as temporary streams. Temporary streams are abundant and widely distributed freshwater ecosystems. They account for more than half of the total length of the global stream network, are unique habitats and form important hydrological and ecological links between the uplands and perennial streams. However, temporary streams have been largely unstudied, especially in mountainous headwater catchments. The dynamic character of these systems makes it difficult to monitor them. We describe a low-cost, do-it-yourself strategy to monitor the occurrence of water and flow in temporary streams. We evaluate this strategy in two headwater catchments in Switzerland. The low cost sensor network consists of electrical resistivity sensors, water level switches, temperature sensors and flow sensors. These sensors are connected to Arduino microcontrollers and data loggers, which log the data every 5 minutes. The data from the measurement network are compared with observations (mapping of the temporary stream network) as well as time lapse camera data to evaluate the performance of the sensors. We look at how frequently the output of the sensors (presence and absence of water from the ER and water level data, and flow or no-flow from the flow sensors) corresponds to the observed channel state. This is done for each sensor, per sub-catchment, per precipitation event and per sensor location to determine the best sensor combination to monitor temporary streams in mountainous catchments and in which situation which sensor combination works best. The preliminary results show that the sensors and monitoring network work well. The data from the sensors corresponds with the observations and provides information on the expansion of the stream network pattern.

Groundwater exchanges near a channelized versus unmodified stream mouth discharging to a subalpine lake

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, James; Naranjo, Ramon C.; Niswonger, Richard G.; Allander, Kip K.; Neilson, B.; Rosenberry, Donald O.; Smith, David W.; Rosecrans, C.; Stonestrom, David A.

2016-01-01

The terminus of a stream flowing into a larger river, pond, lake, or reservoir is referred to as the stream-mouth reach or simply the stream mouth. The terminus is often characterized by rapidly changing thermal and hydraulic conditions that result in abrupt shifts in surface water/groundwater (sw/gw) exchange patterns, creating the potential for unique biogeochemical processes and ecosystems. Worldwide shoreline development is changing stream-lake interfaces through channelization of stream mouths, i.e., channel straightening and bank stabilization to prevent natural meandering at the shoreline. In the central Sierra Nevada (USA), Lake Tahoe's shoreline has an abundance of both “unmodified” (i.e., not engineered though potentially impacted by broader watershed engineering) and channelized stream mouths. Two representative stream mouths along the lake's north shore, one channelized and one unmodified, were selected to compare and contrast water and heat exchanges. Hydraulic and thermal properties were monitored during separate campaigns in September 2012 and 2013 and sw/gw exchanges were estimated within the stream mouth-shoreline continuum. Heat-flow and water-flow patterns indicated clear differences in the channelized versus the unmodified stream mouth. For the channelized stream mouth, relatively modulated, cool-temperature, low-velocity longitudinal streambed flows discharged offshore beneath warmer buoyant lakeshore water. In contrast, a seasonal barrier bar formed across the unmodified stream mouth, creating higher-velocity subsurface flow paths and higher diurnal temperature variations relative to shoreline water. As a consequence, channelization altered sw/gw exchanges potentially altering biogeochemical processing and ecological systems in and near the stream mouth.

A statistical method to predict flow permanence in dryland streams from time series of stream temperature

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Dunham, Jason B.; Heck, Michael; Schultz, Luke; Hockman-Wert, David

2017-01-01

Intermittent and ephemeral streams represent more than half of the length of the global river network. Dryland freshwater ecosystems are especially vulnerable to changes in human-related water uses as well as shifts in terrestrial climates. Yet, the description and quantification of patterns of flow permanence in these systems is challenging mostly due to difficulties in instrumentation. Here, we took advantage of existing stream temperature datasets in dryland streams in the northwest Great Basin desert, USA, to extract critical information on climate-sensitive patterns of flow permanence. We used a signal detection technique, Hidden Markov Models (HMMs), to extract information from daily time series of stream temperature to diagnose patterns of stream drying. Specifically, we applied HMMs to time series of daily standard deviation (SD) of stream temperature (i.e., dry stream channels typically display highly variable daily temperature records compared to wet stream channels) between April and August (2015–2016). We used information from paired stream and air temperature data loggers as well as co-located stream temperature data loggers with electrical resistors as confirmatory sources of the timing of stream drying. We expanded our approach to an entire stream network to illustrate the utility of the method to detect patterns of flow permanence over a broader spatial extent. We successfully identified and separated signals characteristic of wet and dry stream conditions and their shifts over time. Most of our study sites within the entire stream network exhibited a single state over the entire season (80%), but a portion of them showed one or more shifts among states (17%). We provide recommendations to use this approach based on a series of simple steps. Our findings illustrate a successful method that can be used to rigorously quantify flow permanence regimes in streams using existing records of stream temperature.

Forecasting the Movement of Educational Administrators Through Vacancy Flows

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brown, Daniel J.

1976-01-01

Discusses the problem of forecasting manpower flows in administrative hierarchies of educational organizations, reviews groups of manpower models, discusses characteristics of administrative hierarchies and the vacancy model as it relates to those characteristics, and carries out validation and projective tests of the model. (Author/IRT)

Laurentide glacial landscapes: the role of ice streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Patterson, C.J.

1998-01-01

Glacial landforms of the North American prairie can be divided into two suites that result from different styles of ice flow: 1) a lowland suite of level-to-streamlined till consistent with formation beneath ice streams, and 2) an upland and lobe-margin suite of thick, hummocky till and glacial thrust blocks consistent with formation at ice-stream and ice-lobe margins. Southern Laurentide ice lobes hypothetically functioned as outlets of ice streams. Broad branching lowlands bounded by escarpments mark the stable positions of the ice streams that fed the lobes. If the lobes and ice streams were similar to modern ice streams, their fast flow was facilitated by high subglacial water pressure. Favorable geology and topography in the midcontinent encouraged nonuniform ice flow and controlled the location of ice streams and outlet lobes.

Identify temporal trend of air temperature and its impact on forest stream flow in Lower Mississippi River Alluvial Valley using wavelet analysis

Treesearch

Ying Ouyang; Prem B. Parajuli; Yide Li; Theodor D. Leininger; Gary Feng

2017-01-01

Characterization of stream flow is essential to water resource management, water supply planning, environmental protection, and ecological restoration; while air temperature variation due to climate change can exacerbate stream flow and add instability to the flow. In this study, the wavelet analysis technique was employed to identify temporal trend of air temperature...

Evidence of climate change impact on stream low flow from the tropical mountain rainforest watershed in Hainan Island, China

Treesearch

Z. Zhou; Y. Ouyang; Z. Qiu; G. Zhou; M. Lin; Y. Li

2017-01-01

Stream low flow estimates are central to assessing climate change impact, water resource management, and ecosystem restoration. This study investigated the impacts of climate change upon stream low flows from a rainforest watershed in Jianfengling (JFL) Mountain, Hainan Island, China, using the low flow selection method as well as the frequency and probability analysis...

Superamphiphobic Silicon-Nanowire-Embedded Microsystem and In-Contact Flow Performance of Gas and Liquid Streams.

PubMed

Ko, Dong-Hyeon; Ren, Wurong; Kim, Jin-Oh; Wang, Jun; Wang, Hao; Sharma, Siddharth; Faustini, Marco; Kim, Dong-Pyo

2016-01-26

Gas and liquid streams are invariably separated either by a solid wall or by a membrane for heat or mass transfer between the gas and liquid streams. Without the separating wall, the gas phase is present as bubbles in liquid or, in a microsystem, as gas plugs between slugs of liquid. Continuous and direct contact between the two moving streams of gas and liquid is quite an efficient way of achieving heat or mass transfer between the two phases. Here, we report a silicon nanowire built-in microsystem in which a liquid stream flows in contact with an underlying gas stream. The upper liquid stream does not penetrate into the lower gas stream due to the superamphiphobic nature of the silicon nanowires built into the bottom wall, thereby preserving the integrity of continuous gas and liquid streams, although they are flowing in contact. Due to the superamphiphobic nature of silicon nanowires, the microsystem provides the best possible interfacial mass transfer known to date between flowing gas and liquid phases, which can achieve excellent chemical performance in two-phase organic syntheses.

An assessment of low flows in streams in northeastern Wyoming

USGS Publications Warehouse

Armentrout, G.W.; Wilson, J.F.

1987-01-01

Low flows were assessed and summarized in the following basins in northeastern Wyoming: Little Bighorn, Tongue, Powder, Little Missouri, Belle Fourche, Cheyenne, and Niobrara River, and about 200 river miles of the North Platte River and its tributaries. Only existing data from streamflow stations and miscellaneous observation sites during the period, 1930-80, were used. Data for a few stations in Montana and South Dakota were used in the analysis. Data were available for 56 perennial streams, 38 intermittent streams, and 34 ephemeral streams. The distribution of minimum observed flows of record at all stations and sites and the 7-day, 10-year low flows at mountain stations and main-stem plains stations are shown on a map. Seven day low flows were determined by fitting the log Pearsons Type III distribution to the data; results are tabulated only for the stations with at least 10 years of record that included at least one major drought. Most streams that originate in the foothills and plains have no flow during part of every year, and are typical of much of the study area. For stations on these streams , the frequency of the annual maximum number of consecutive days of no flow was determined, as an indicator of the likelihood of extended periods of no flow or drought. For estimates at ungaged sites on streams in the Bighorn Mountains only, a simple regression of 7-day, 10-year low flow on drainage area has a standard error of 64%, based on 19 stations with drainage areas of 2 to 200 sq mi. The 7-day, 10-year low flow in main-stem streams can be interpolated from graphs of 7-day, 10-year low flow versus distance along the main channel. Additional studies of low flow are needed. The data base, particularly synoptic baseflow information, needs considerable expansion. Also, the use of storage-analysis procedures should be considered as a means of assessing the availability of water in streams that otherwise are fully appropriated or that are ephemeral. (Author 's abstract)

Regionalization of low-flow characteristics of Tennessee streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bingham, R.H.

1986-01-01

Procedures for estimating 3-day 2-year, 3-day 10-year, 3-day 20-year, and 7-day 10-year low flows at ungaged stream sites in Tennessee are based on surface geology and drainage area size. One set of equations applies to west Tennessee streams, and another set applies to central and east Tennessee streams. The equations do not apply to streams where flow is significantly altered by activities of man. Standard errors of estimate of equations for west Tennessee are 24 to 32% and for central and east Tennessee 31 to 35%. Streamflow recession indexes, in days/log cycle, are used to account for effects of geology of the drainage basin on low flow of streams. The indexes in Tennessee range from 32 days/log cycle for clay and shale to 350 days/log cycle for gravel and sand, indicating different aquifer characteristics of the geologic units that sustain streamflows during periods of no surface runoff. Streamflow recession rate depends primarily on transmissivity and storage characteristics of the aquifers, and the average distance from stream channels to basin divides. Geology and drainage basin size are the most significant variables affecting low flow in Tennessee streams according to regression analyses. (Author 's abstract)

Gridded Calibration of Ensemble Wind Vector Forecasts Using Ensemble Model Output Statistics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazarus, S. M.; Holman, B. P.; Splitt, M. E.

2017-12-01

A computationally efficient method is developed that performs gridded post processing of ensemble wind vector forecasts. An expansive set of idealized WRF model simulations are generated to provide physically consistent high resolution winds over a coastal domain characterized by an intricate land / water mask. Ensemble model output statistics (EMOS) is used to calibrate the ensemble wind vector forecasts at observation locations. The local EMOS predictive parameters (mean and variance) are then spread throughout the grid utilizing flow-dependent statistical relationships extracted from the downscaled WRF winds. Using data withdrawal and 28 east central Florida stations, the method is applied to one year of 24 h wind forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS). Compared to the raw GEFS, the approach improves both the deterministic and probabilistic forecast skill. Analysis of multivariate rank histograms indicate the post processed forecasts are calibrated. Two downscaling case studies are presented, a quiescent easterly flow event and a frontal passage. Strengths and weaknesses of the approach are presented and discussed.

Counter-streaming flows in a giant quiet-Sun filament observed in the extreme ultraviolet

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Diercke, A.; Kuckein, C.; Verma, M.; Denker, C.

2018-03-01

Aim. The giant solar filament was visible on the solar surface from 2011 November 8-23. Multiwavelength data from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) were used to examine counter-streaming flows within the spine of the filament. Methods: We use data from two SDO instruments, the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) and the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI), covering the whole filament, which stretched over more than half a solar diameter. Hα images from the Kanzelhöhe Solar Observatory (KSO) provide context information of where the spine of the filament is defined and the barbs are located. We apply local correlation tracking (LCT) to a two-hour time series on 2011 November 16 of the AIA images to derive horizontal flow velocities of the filament. To enhance the contrast of the AIA images, noise adaptive fuzzy equalization (NAFE) is employed, which allows us to identify and quantify counter-streaming flows in the filament. We observe the same cool filament plasma in absorption in both Hα and EUV images. Hence, the counter-streaming flows are directly related to this filament material in the spine. In addition, we use directional flow maps to highlight the counter-streaming flows. Results: We detect counter-streaming flows in the filament, which are visible in the time-lapse movies in all four examined AIA wavelength bands (λ171 Å, λ193 Å, λ304 Å, and λ211 Å). In the time-lapse movies we see that these persistent flows lasted for at least two hours, although they became less prominent towards the end of the time series. Furthermore, by applying LCT to the images we clearly determine counter-streaming flows in time series of λ171 Å and λ193 Å images. In the λ304 Å wavelength band, we only see minor indications for counter-streaming flows with LCT, while in the λ211 Å wavelength band the counter-streaming flows are not detectable with this method. The diverse morphology of the filament in Hα and EUV images is caused by different absorption processes, i.e., spectral line absorption and absorption by hydrogen and helium continua, respectively. The horizontal flows reach mean flow speeds of about 0.5 km s-1 for all wavelength bands. The highest horizontal flow speeds are identified in the λ171 Å band with flow speeds of up to 2.5 km s-1. The results are averaged over a time series of 90 minutes. Because the LCT sampling window has finite width, a spatial degradation cannot be avoided leading to lower estimates of the flow velocities as compared to feature tracking or Doppler measurements. The counter-streaming flows cover about 15-20% of the whole area of the EUV filament channel and are located in the central part of the spine. Conclusions: Compared to the ground-based observations, the absence of seeing effects in AIA observations reveal counter-streaming flows in the filament even with a moderate image scale of 0. ''6 pixel-1. Using a contrast enhancement technique, these flows can be detected and quantified with LCT in different wavelengths. We confirm the omnipresence of counter-streaming flows also in giant quiet-Sun filaments. A movie associated to Fig. 6 is available at http://https://www.aanda.org

Ensemble hydro-meteorological forecasting for early warning of floods and scheduling of hydropower production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Solvang Johansen, Stian; Steinsland, Ingelin; Engeland, Kolbjørn

2016-04-01

Running hydrological models with precipitation and temperature ensemble forcing to generate ensembles of streamflow is a commonly used method in operational hydrology. Evaluations of streamflow ensembles have however revealed that the ensembles are biased with respect to both mean and spread. Thus postprocessing of the ensembles is needed in order to improve the forecast skill. The aims of this study is (i) to to evaluate how postprocessing of streamflow ensembles works for Norwegian catchments within different hydrological regimes and to (ii) demonstrate how post processed streamflow ensembles are used operationally by a hydropower producer. These aims were achieved by postprocessing forecasted daily discharge for 10 lead-times for 20 catchments in Norway by using EPS forcing from ECMWF applied the semi-distributed HBV-model dividing each catchment into 10 elevation zones. Statkraft Energi uses forecasts from these catchments for scheduling hydropower production. The catchments represent different hydrological regimes. Some catchments have stable winter condition with winter low flow and a major flood event during spring or early summer caused by snow melting. Others has a more mixed snow-rain regime, often with a secondary flood season during autumn, and in the coastal areas, the stream flow is dominated by rain, and the main flood season is autumn and winter. For post processing, a Bayesian model averaging model (BMA) close to (Kleiber et al 2011) is used. The model creates a predictive PDF that is a weighted average of PDFs centered on the individual bias corrected forecasts. The weights are here equal since all ensemble members come from the same model, and thus have the same probability. For modeling streamflow, the gamma distribution is chosen as a predictive PDF. The bias correction parameters and the PDF parameters are estimated using a 30-day sliding window training period. Preliminary results show that the improvement varies between catchments depending on where they are situated and the hydrological regime. There is an improvement in CRPS for all catchments compared to raw EPS ensembles. The improvement is up to lead-time 5-7. The postprocessing also improves the MAE for the median of the predictive PDF compared to the median of the raw EPS. But less compared to CRPS, often up to lead-time 2-3. The streamflow ensembles are to some extent used operationally in Statkraft Energi (Hydro Power company, Norway), with respect to early warning, risk assessment and decision-making. Presently all forecast used operationally for short-term scheduling are deterministic, but ensembles are used visually for expert assessment of risk in difficult situations where e.g. there is a chance of overflow in a reservoir. However, there are plans to incorporate ensembles in the daily scheduling of hydropower production.

Predicting areas of sustainable error growth in quasigeostrophic flows using perturbation alignment properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rivière, G.; Hua, B. L.

2004-10-01

A new perturbation initialization method is used to quantify error growth due to inaccuracies of the forecast model initial conditions in a quasigeostrophic box ocean model describing a wind-driven double gyre circulation. This method is based on recent analytical results on Lagrangian alignment dynamics of the perturbation velocity vector in quasigeostrophic flows. More specifically, it consists in initializing a unique perturbation from the sole knowledge of the control flow properties at the initial time of the forecast and whose velocity vector orientation satisfies a Lagrangian equilibrium criterion. This Alignment-based Initialization method is hereafter denoted as the AI method.In terms of spatial distribution of the errors, we have compared favorably the AI error forecast with the mean error obtained with a Monte-Carlo ensemble prediction. It is shown that the AI forecast is on average as efficient as the error forecast initialized with the leading singular vector for the palenstrophy norm, and significantly more efficient than that for total energy and enstrophy norms. Furthermore, a more precise examination shows that the AI forecast is systematically relevant for all control flows whereas the palenstrophy singular vector forecast leads sometimes to very good scores and sometimes to very bad ones.A principal component analysis at the final time of the forecast shows that the AI mode spatial structure is comparable to that of the first eigenvector of the error covariance matrix for a "bred mode" ensemble. Furthermore, the kinetic energy of the AI mode grows at the same constant rate as that of the "bred modes" from the initial time to the final time of the forecast and is therefore characterized by a sustained phase of error growth. In this sense, the AI mode based on Lagrangian dynamics of the perturbation velocity orientation provides a rationale of the "bred mode" behavior.

Characterizing Sub-Daily Flow Regimes: Implications of Hydrologic Resolution on Ecohydrology Studies

DOE PAGES

Bevelhimer, Mark S.; McManamay, Ryan A.; O'Connor, B.

2014-05-26

Natural variability in flow is a primary factor controlling geomorphic and ecological processes in riverine ecosystems. Within the hydropower industry, there is growing pressure from environmental groups and natural resource managers to change reservoir releases from daily peaking to run-of-river operations on the basis of the assumption that downstream biological communities will improve under a more natural flow regime. In this paper, we discuss the importance of assessing sub-daily flows for understanding the physical and ecological dynamics within river systems. We present a variety of metrics for characterizing sub-daily flow variation and use these metrics to evaluate general trends amongmore » streams affected by peaking hydroelectric projects, run-of-river projects and streams that are largely unaffected by flow altering activities. Univariate and multivariate techniques were used to assess similarity among different stream types on the basis of these sub-daily metrics. For comparison, similar analyses were performed using analogous metrics calculated with mean daily flow values. Our results confirm that sub-daily flow metrics reveal variation among and within streams that are not captured by daily flow statistics. Using sub-daily flow statistics, we were able to quantify the degree of difference between unaltered and peaking streams and the amount of similarity between unaltered and run-of-river streams. The sub-daily statistics were largely uncorrelated with daily statistics of similar scope. Furthermore, on short temporal scales, sub-daily statistics reveal the relatively constant nature of unaltered streamreaches and the highly variable nature of hydropower-affected streams, whereas daily statistics show just the opposite over longer temporal scales.« less

Highlights of advances in the field of hydrometeorological research brought about by the DRIHM project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caumont, Olivier; Hally, Alan; Garrote, Luis; Richard, Évelyne; Weerts, Albrecht; Delogu, Fabio; Fiori, Elisabetta; Rebora, Nicola; Parodi, Antonio; Mihalović, Ana; Ivković, Marija; Dekić, Ljiljana; van Verseveld, Willem; Nuissier, Olivier; Ducrocq, Véronique; D'Agostino, Daniele; Galizia, Antonella; Danovaro, Emanuele; Clematis, Andrea

2015-04-01

The FP7 DRIHM (Distributed Research Infrastructure for Hydro-Meteorology, http://www.drihm.eu, 2011-2015) project intends to develop a prototype e-Science environment to facilitate the collaboration between meteorologists, hydrologists, and Earth science experts for accelerated scientific advances in Hydro-Meteorology Research (HMR). As the project comes to its end, this presentation will summarize the HMR results that have been obtained in the framework of DRIHM. The vision shaped and implemented in the framework of the DRIHM project enables the production and interpretation of numerous, complex compositions of hydrometeorological simulations of flood events from rainfall, either simulated or modelled, down to discharge. Each element of a composition is drawn from a set of various state-of-the-art models. Atmospheric simulations providing high-resolution rainfall forecasts involve different global and limited-area convection-resolving models, the former being used as boundary conditions for the latter. Some of these models can be run as ensembles, i.e. with perturbed boundary conditions, initial conditions and/or physics, thus sampling the probability density function of rainfall forecasts. In addition, a stochastic downscaling algorithm can be used to create high-resolution rainfall ensemble forecasts from deterministic lower-resolution forecasts. All these rainfall forecasts may be used as input to various rainfall-discharge hydrological models that compute the resulting stream flows for catchments of interest. In some hydrological simulations, physical parameters are perturbed to take into account model errors. As a result, six different kinds of rainfall data (either deterministic or probabilistic) can currently be compared with each other and combined with three different hydrological model engines running either in deterministic or probabilistic mode. HMR topics which are allowed or facilitated by such unprecedented sets of hydrometerological forecasts include: physical process studies, intercomparison of models and ensembles, sensitivity studies to a particular component of the forecasting chain, and design of flash-flood early-warning systems. These benefits will be illustrated with the different key cases that have been under investigation in the course of the project. These are four catastrophic cases of flooding, namely the case of 4 November 2011 in Genoa, Italy, 6 November 2011 in Catalonia, Spain, 13-16 May 2014 in eastern Europe, and 9 October 2014, again in Genoa, Italy.

PRESTIGRIS: an operational system for water resources and droughts management on Tuscany, Central Italy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campo, Lorenzo; Caparrini, Francesca; Castelli, Fabio

2013-04-01

In the last years the problems of water management faced by local administration due to the growing demand of the territory and to the changes in terms of availability became more and more important. Also in view of problems issued by the Climate Change, it is necessary to have the availability of information about the present and the future state of the water resources on the territory, both in terms of stress of the water bodies and of trends in the near-future. In this respect, an adequate management and planning of the water resources can make use of meteorological seasonal forecasts (one-three month) for the assessment of the primary sources of fresh water in a given region. The PRESTIGRIS project (PREvisioni STagionali Idrologiche per la Gestione della Risorsa Idrica e della Siccità - hydrologic seasonal forecasts for water resources and droughts management), implemented at the University of Florence in collaboration with Eumechanos Environmental Engineering and LaMMa (Laboratorio di Monitoraggio e Modellistica ambientale, Laboratory for Environmental Monitoring and Modeling), is aimed to provide hydrological seasonal forecasts on the territory of the Tuscany Region, Central Italy, basing on the seasonal meteorological forecasts available at different Weather Services (NOAA, IRI, etc.). The PRESTIGRIS system is based on a stochastic disaggregation of the monthly seasonal forecasts of minimum and maximum air temperature at the ground and of the total rainfall height. Through an analysis based on Principal Component Analysis (PCA) techniques, the forecasts are disaggregated in daily maps at a spatial resolution (500 m) compatible with a complete hydrological balance simulation, performed on the entire Tuscany region (about 22000 km2) by the distributed hydrological model MOBIDIC (MOdello di BIlancio Distribuito e Continuo), developed at the Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering of the University of Florence. Given a single seasonal forecast, the system performs an ensemble of 50 hydrological simulations. Basing on the results of the simulations, significant quantiles of the main variables of interest (soil saturation, discharge flows in the stream network, evapotranspiration) are mapped on the territory. The results of the simulations for the year 2003, in particular during the severe drought occurred during the summer, are shown as an example of the capabilities of the system.

Modeled streamflow metrics on small, ungaged stream reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Reynolds, Lindsay V.; Shafroth, Patrick B.

2016-01-20

Modeling streamflow is an important approach for understanding landscape-scale drivers of flow and estimating flows where there are no streamgage records. In this study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Colorado State University, the objectives were to model streamflow metrics on small, ungaged streams in the Upper Colorado River Basin and identify streams that are potentially threatened with becoming intermittent under drier climate conditions. The Upper Colorado River Basin is a region that is critical for water resources and also projected to experience large future climate shifts toward a drying climate. A random forest modeling approach was used to model the relationship between streamflow metrics and environmental variables. Flow metrics were then projected to ungaged reaches in the Upper Colorado River Basin using environmental variables for each stream, represented as raster cells, in the basin. Last, the projected random forest models of minimum flow coefficient of variation and specific mean daily flow were used to highlight streams that had greater than 61.84 percent minimum flow coefficient of variation and less than 0.096 specific mean daily flow and suggested that these streams will be most threatened to shift to intermittent flow regimes under drier climate conditions. Map projection products can help scientists, land managers, and policymakers understand current hydrology in the Upper Colorado River Basin and make informed decisions regarding water resources. With knowledge of which streams are likely to undergo significant drying in the future, managers and scientists can plan for stream-dependent ecosystems and human water users.

Channel water balance and exchange with subsurface flow along a mountain headwater stream in Montana, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payn, R.A.; Gooseff, M.N.; McGlynn, B.L.; Bencala, K.E.; Wondzell, S.M.

2009-01-01

Channel water balances of contiguous reaches along streams represent a poorly understood scale of stream-subsurface interaction. We measured reach water balances along a headwater stream in Montana, United States, during summer base flow recessions. Reach water balances were estimated from series of tracer tests in 13 consecutive reaches delineated evenly along a 2.6 km valley segment. For each reach, we estimated net change in discharge, gross hydrologic loss, and gross hydrologic gain from tracer dilution and mass recovery. Four series of tracer tests were performed during relatively high, intermediate, and low base flow conditions. The relative distribution of channel water along the stream was strongly related to a transition in valley structure, with a general increase in gross losses through the recession. During tracer tests at intermediate and low flows, there were frequent substantial losses of tracer mass (>10%) that could not be explained by net loss in flow over the reach, indicating that many of the study reaches were concurrently losing and gaining water. For example, one reach with little net change in discharge exchanged nearly 20% of upstream flow with gains and losses along the reach. These substantial bidirectional exchanges suggest that some channel interactions with subsurface flow paths were not measurable by net change in flow or transient storage of recovered tracer. Understanding bidirectional channel water balances in stream reaches along valleys is critical to an accurate assessment of stream solute fate and transport and to a full assessment of exchanges between the stream channel and surrounding subsurface.

Channel water balance and exchange with subsurface flow along a mountain headwater stream in Montana, United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Payn, R.A.; Gooseff, M.N.; McGlynn, B.L.; Bencala, K.E.; Wondzell, S.M.

2009-01-01

Channel water balances of contiguous reaches along streams represent a poorly understood scale of stream-subsurface interaction. We measured reach water balances along a headwater stream in Montana, United States, during summer base flow recessions. Reach water balances were estimated from series of tracer tests in 13 consecutive reaches delineated evenly along a 2.6 km valley segment. For each reach, we estimated net change in discharge, gross hydrologic loss, and gross hydrologic gain from tracer dilution and mass recovery. Four series of tracer tests were performed during relatively high, intermediate, and low base flow conditions. The relative distribution of channel water along the stream was strongly related to a transition in valley structure, with a general increase in gross losses through the recession. During tracer tests at intermediate and low flows, there were frequent substantial losses of tracer mass (>10%) that could not be explained by net loss in flow over the reach, indicating that many of the study reaches were concurrently losing and gaining water. For example, one reach with little net change in discharge exchanged nearly 20% of upstream flow with gains and losses along the reach. These substantial bidirectional exchanges suggest that some channel interactions with subsurface flow paths were not measurable by net change in flow or transient storage of recovered tracer. Understanding bidirectional channel water balances in stream reaches along valleys is critical to an accurate assessment of stream solute fate and transport and to a full assessment of exchanges between the stream channel and surrounding subsurface. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.

Hyporheic zone influences on concentration-discharge relationships in a headwater sandstone stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoagland, Beth; Russo, Tess A.; Gu, Xin; Hill, Lillian; Kaye, Jason; Forsythe, Brandon; Brantley, Susan L.

2017-06-01

Complex subsurface flow dynamics impact the storage, routing, and transport of water and solutes to streams in headwater catchments. Many of these hydrogeologic processes are indirectly reflected in observations of stream chemistry responses to rain events, also known as concentration-discharge (CQ) relations. Identifying the relative importance of subsurface flows to stream CQ relationships is often challenging in headwater environments due to spatial and temporal variability. Therefore, this study combines a diverse set of methods, including tracer injection tests, cation exchange experiments, geochemical analyses, and numerical modeling, to map groundwater-surface water interactions along a first-order, sandstone stream (Garner Run) in the Appalachian Mountains of central Pennsylvania. The primary flow paths to the stream include preferential flow through the unsaturated zone ("interflow"), flow discharging from a spring, and groundwater discharge. Garner Run stream inherits geochemical signatures from geochemical reactions occurring along each of these flow paths. In addition to end-member mixing effects on CQ, we find that the exchange of solutes, nutrients, and water between the hyporheic zone and the main stream channel is a relevant control on the chemistry of Garner Run. CQ relationships for Garner Run were compared to prior results from a nearby headwater catchment overlying shale bedrock (Shale Hills). At the sandstone site, solutes associated with organo-mineral associations in the hyporheic zone influence CQ, while CQ trends in the shale catchment are affected by preferential flow through hillslope swales. The difference in CQ trends document how the lithology and catchment hydrology control CQ relationships.

Distribution of Amphipods (Gammarus nipponensis Ueno) Among Mountain Headwater Streams with Different Legacies of Debris Flow Occurrence

EPA Science Inventory

To understand the impacts of debris flows on the distribution of an amphipod with limited dispersal ability in the context of stream networks, we surveyed the presence of Gammarus nipponensis in 87 headwater streams with different legacies of debris flow occurrence within an 8.5-...

40 CFR Appendix E to Part 52 - Performance Specifications and, Specification Test Procedures for Monitoring Systems for Effluent...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

..., Specification Test Procedures for Monitoring Systems for Effluent Stream Gas Volumetric Flow Rate E Appendix E... Stream Gas Volumetric Flow Rate 1. Principle and applicability. 1.1Principle. Effluent stream gas... method is applicable to subparts which require continuous gas volumetric flow rate measurement...

40 CFR Appendix E to Part 52 - Performance Specifications and, Specification Test Procedures for Monitoring Systems for Effluent...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

..., Specification Test Procedures for Monitoring Systems for Effluent Stream Gas Volumetric Flow Rate E Appendix E... Stream Gas Volumetric Flow Rate 1. Principle and applicability. 1.1Principle. Effluent stream gas... method is applicable to subparts which require continuous gas volumetric flow rate measurement...

The development of a model and decision support system to use in forecasting truck freight flow in the continental United States

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-01-01

This research develops a regression-based model for forecasting truck borne freight in the continental United States. This model is capable of predicting freight commodity flow information via trucks to assist transportation planners who wish to unde...

Power Grid Maintenance Scheduling Intelligence Arrangement Supporting System Based on Power Flow Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Chang; Wen, Jing; Liu, Wenying; Wang, Jiaming

With the development of intelligent dispatching, the intelligence level of network control center full-service urgent need to raise. As an important daily work of network control center, the application of maintenance scheduling intelligent arrangement to achieve high-quality and safety operation of power grid is very important. By analyzing the shortages of the traditional maintenance scheduling software, this paper designs a power grid maintenance scheduling intelligence arrangement supporting system based on power flow forecasting, which uses the advanced technologies in maintenance scheduling, such as artificial intelligence, online security checking, intelligent visualization techniques. It implements the online security checking of maintenance scheduling based on power flow forecasting and power flow adjusting based on visualization, in order to make the maintenance scheduling arrangement moreintelligent and visual.

Predicting spatial distribution of postfire debris flows and potential consequences for native trout in headwater streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sedell, Edwin R; Gresswell, Bob; McMahon, Thomas E.

2015-01-01

Habitat fragmentation and degradation and invasion of nonnative species have restricted the distribution of native trout. Many trout populations are limited to headwater streams where negative effects of predicted climate change, including reduced stream flow and increased risk of catastrophic fires, may further jeopardize their persistence. Headwater streams in steep terrain are especially susceptible to disturbance associated with postfire debris flows, which have led to local extirpation of trout populations in some systems. We conducted a reach-scale spatial analysis of debris-flow risk among 11 high-elevation watersheds of the Colorado Rocky Mountains occupied by isolated populations of Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus). Stream reaches at high risk of disturbance by postfire debris flow were identified with the aid of a qualitative model based on 4 primary initiating and transport factors (hillslope gradient, flow accumulation pathways, channel gradient, and valley confinement). This model was coupled with a spatially continuous survey of trout distributions in these stream networks to assess the predicted extent of trout population disturbances related to debris flows. In the study systems, debris-flow potential was highest in the lower and middle reaches of most watersheds. Colorado River Cutthroat Trout occurred in areas of high postfire debris-flow risk, but they were never restricted to those areas. Postfire debris flows could extirpate trout from local reaches in these watersheds, but trout populations occupy refugia that should allow recolonization of interconnected, downstream reaches. Specific results of our study may not be universally applicable, but our risk assessment approach can be applied to assess postfire debris-flow risk for stream reaches in other watersheds.

Techniques for estimating 7-day, 10-year low-flow characteristics for ungaged sites on streams in Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Telis, Pamela A.

1992-01-01

Mississippi State water laws require that the 7-day, 10-year low-flow characteristic (7Q10) of streams be used as a criterion for issuing wastedischarge permits to dischargers to streams and for limiting withdrawals of water from streams. This report presents techniques for estimating the 7Q10 for ungaged sites on streams in Mississippi based on the availability of baseflow discharge measurements at the site, location of nearby gaged sites on the same stream, and drainage area of the ungaged site. These techniques may be used to estimate the 7Q10 at sites on natural, unregulated or partially regulated, and non-tidal streams. Low-flow characteristics for streams in the Mississippi River alluvial plain were not estimated because the annual lowflow data exhibit decreasing trends with time. Also presented are estimates of the 7Q10 for 493 gaged sites on Mississippi streams.Techniques for estimating the 7Q10 have been developed for ungaged sites with base-flow discharge measurements, for ungaged sites on gaged streams, and for ungaged sites on ungaged streams. For an ungaged site with one or more base-flow discharge measurements, base-flow discharge data at the ungaged site are related to concurrent discharge data at a nearby gaged site. For ungaged sites on gaged streams, several methods of transferring the 7Q10 from a gaged site to an ungaged site were developed; the resulting 7Q10 values are based on drainage area prorations for the sites. For ungaged sites on ungaged streams, the 7Q10 is estimated from a map developed for. this study that shows the unit 7Q10 (7Q10 per square mile of drainage area) for ungaged basins in the State. The mapped values were estimated from the unit 7Q10 determined for nearby gaged basins, adjusted on the basis of the geology and topography of the ungaged basins.

Use of forecasting signatures to help distinguish periodicity, randomness, and chaos in ripples and other spatial patterns

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rubin, D.M.

1992-01-01

Forecasting of one-dimensional time series previously has been used to help distinguish periodicity, chaos, and noise. This paper presents two-dimensional generalizations for making such distinctions for spatial patterns. The techniques are evaluated using synthetic spatial patterns and then are applied to a natural example: ripples formed in sand by blowing wind. Tests with the synthetic patterns demonstrate that the forecasting techniques can be applied to two-dimensional spatial patterns, with the same utility and limitations as when applied to one-dimensional time series. One limitation is that some combinations of periodicity and randomness exhibit forecasting signatures that mimic those of chaos. For example, sine waves distorted with correlated phase noise have forecasting errors that increase with forecasting distance, errors that, are minimized using nonlinear models at moderate embedding dimensions, and forecasting properties that differ significantly between the original and surrogates. Ripples formed in sand by flowing air or water typically vary in geometry from one to another, even when formed in a flow that is uniform on a large scale; each ripple modifies the local flow or sand-transport field, thereby influencing the geometry of the next ripple downcurrent. Spatial forecasting was used to evaluate the hypothesis that such a deterministic process - rather than randomness or quasiperiodicity - is responsible for the variation between successive ripples. This hypothesis is supported by a forecasting error that increases with forecasting distance, a greater accuracy of nonlinear relative to linear models, and significant differences between forecasts made with the original ripples and those made with surrogate patterns. Forecasting signatures cannot be used to distinguish ripple geometry from sine waves with correlated phase noise, but this kind of structure can be ruled out by two geometric properties of the ripples: Successive ripples are highly correlated in wavelength, and ripple crests display dislocations such as branchings and mergers. ?? 1992 American Institute of Physics.

Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eng, K.

2015-12-01

There is growing interest in the effects of climate change on streamflows because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Previous studies of climate controls on flows have primarily focused on perennial streams, and few studies have examined the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objectives in this study were to (1) identify regions showing similar patterns of intermittency, and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the United States. This study was carried out at 265 intermittent streams by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with precipitation (magnitudes, durations and intensity) and temperature, and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results identified five distinct seasonal patterns of flow intermittency: fall, fall-to-winter, non-seasonal, summer, and summer-to-winter intermittent streams. In addition, strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical climate variability were found. However, the lack of trends in historical variations in precipitation results in no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics over the period of record (1950 to 2013).

Assessing the Effects of Water Right Purchases on Stream Temperatures and Fish Habitat

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elmore, L.; Null, S. E.

2012-12-01

Warm stream temperature and low flow conditions are limiting factors for native trout species in Nevada's Walker River. Water rights purchases are being considered to increase instream flow and improve habitat conditions. However, the effect of water rights purchases on stream temperatures and fish habitat have yet to be assessed. Manipulating flow conditions affect stream temperatures by altering water depth, velocity, and thermal mass. This study uses the River Modeling System (RMSv4), an hourly, physically-based hydrodynamic and water quality model, to estimate flows and stream temperatures in the Walker River. The model is developed for two wet years (2010-2011). Study results highlight reaches with cold-water habitat that is suitable for native trout species. Previous research on the Walker River has evaluated instream flow changes with water rights purchases. This study incorporates stream temperatures as a proxy for trout habitat, and thus explicitly incorporates water quality and fish habitat into decision-making regarding water rights purchases. Walker River

Forecasting drought risks for a water supply storage system using bootstrap position analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tasker, Gary; Dunne, Paul

1997-01-01

Forecasting the likelihood of drought conditions is an integral part of managing a water supply storage and delivery system. Position analysis uses a large number of possible flow sequences as inputs to a simulation of a water supply storage and delivery system. For a given set of operating rules and water use requirements, water managers can use such a model to forecast the likelihood of specified outcomes such as reservoir levels falling below a specified level or streamflows falling below statutory passing flows a few months ahead conditioned on the current reservoir levels and streamflows. The large number of possible flow sequences are generated using a stochastic streamflow model with a random resampling of innovations. The advantages of this resampling scheme, called bootstrap position analysis, are that it does not rely on the unverifiable assumption of normality and it allows incorporation of long-range weather forecasts into the analysis.

Low-flow statistics of selected streams in Chester County, Pennsylvania

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schreffler, Curtis L.

1998-01-01

Low-flow statistics for many streams in Chester County, Pa., were determined on the basis of data from 14 continuous-record streamflow stations in Chester County and data from 1 station in Maryland and 1 station in Delaware. The stations in Maryland and Delaware are on streams that drain large areas within Chester County. Streamflow data through the 1994 water year were used in the analyses. The low-flow statistics summarized are the 1Q10, 7Q10, 30Q10, and harmonic mean. Low-flow statistics were estimated at 34 partial-record stream sites throughout Chester County.

Reactivation of a cryptobiotic stream ecosystem in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica: A long-term geomorphological experiment

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKnight, Diane M.; Tate, C.M.; Andrews, E.D.; Niyogi, D.K.; Cozzetto, K.; Welch, K.; Lyons, W.B.; Capone, D.G.

2007-01-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica contain many glacial meltwater streams that flow for 6 to 12??weeks during the austral summer and link the glaciers to the lakes on the valley floors. Dry valley streams gain solutes longitudinally through weathering reactions and microbial processes occurring in the hyporheic zone. Some streams have thriving cyanobacterial mats. In streams with regular summer flow, the mats are freeze-dried through the winter and begin photosynthesizing with the onset of flow. To evaluate the longer term persistence of cyanobacterial mats, we diverted flow to an abandoned channel, which had not received substantial flow for approximately two decades. Monitoring of specific conductance showed that for the first 3??years after the diversion, the solute concentrations were greater in the reactivated channel than in most other dry valley streams. We observed that cyanobacterial mats became abundant in the reactivated channel within a week, indicating that the mats had been preserved in a cryptobiotic state in the channel. Over the next several years, these mats had high rates of productivity and nitrogen fixation compared to mats from other streams. Experiments in which mats from the reactivated channel and another stream were incubated in water from both of the streams indicated that the greater solute concentrations in the reactivated channel stimulated net primary productivity of mats from both streams. These stream-scale experimental results indicate that the cryptobiotic preservation of cyanobacterial mats in abandoned channels in the dry valleys allows for rapid response of these stream ecosystems to climatic and geomorphological change, similar to other arid zone stream ecosystems. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling the Impact of Stream Discharge Events on Riparian Solute Dynamics.

PubMed

Mahmood, Muhammad Nasir; Schmidt, Christian; Fleckenstein, Jan H; Trauth, Nico

2018-03-22

The biogeochemical composition of stream water and the surrounding riparian water is mainly defined by the exchange of water and solutes between the stream and the riparian zone. Short-term fluctuations in near stream hydraulic head gradients (e.g., during stream flow events) can significantly influence the extent and rate of exchange processes. In this study, we simulate exchanges between streams and their riparian zone driven by stream stage fluctuations during single stream discharge events of varying peak height and duration. Simulated results show that strong stream flow events can trigger solute mobilization in riparian soils and subsequent export to the stream. The timing and amount of solute export is linked to the shape of the discharge event. Higher peaks and increased durations significantly enhance solute export, however, peak height is found to be the dominant control for overall mass export. Mobilized solutes are transported to the stream in two stages (1) by return flow of stream water that was stored in the riparian zone during the event and (2) by vertical movement to the groundwater under gravity drainage from the unsaturated parts of the riparian zone, which lasts for significantly longer time (> 400 days) resulting in long tailing of bank outflows and solute mass outfluxes. We conclude that strong stream discharge events can mobilize and transport solutes from near stream riparian soils into the stream. The impact of short-term stream discharge variations on solute exchange may last for long times after the flow event. © 2018, National Ground Water Association.

Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

DOE PAGES

Moran, Kelly Renee; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; ...

2016-11-14

Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection andmore » Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.« less

Epidemic forecasting is messier than weather forecasting: The role of human behavior and internet data streams in epidemic forecast

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moran, Kelly Renee; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas

Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection andmore » Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. Here, we conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting.« less

Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast

PubMed Central

Moran, Kelly R.; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; Hickmann, Kyle; Osthus, Dave; Priedhorsky, Reid; Hyman, James; Del Valle, Sara Y.

2016-01-01

Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. We conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting. PMID:28830111

Patterns in stream longitudinal profiles and implications for hyporheic exchange flow at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, Oregon, USA.

Treesearch

Justin K. Anderson; Steven M. Wondzell; Michael N. Gooseff; Roy Haggerty

2005-01-01

There is a need to identify measurable characteristics of stream channel morphology that vary predictably throughout stream networks and that influence patterns of hyporheic exchange flow in mountain streams. In this paper we characterize stream longitudinal profiles according to channel unit spacing and the concavity of the water surface profile. We demonstrate that...

Cosmogenic exposure age constraints on deglaciation and flow behaviour of a marine-based ice stream in western Scotland, 21-16 ka

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Small, David; Benetti, Sara; Dove, Dayton; Ballantyne, Colin K.; Fabel, Derek; Clark, Chris D.; Gheorghiu, Delia M.; Newall, Jennifer; Xu, Sheng

2017-07-01

Understanding how marine-based ice streams operated during episodes of deglaciation requires geochronological data that constrain both timing of deglaciation and changes in their flow behaviour, such as that from unconstrained ice streaming to topographically restricted flow. We present seventeen new 10Be exposure ages from glacial boulders and bedrock at sites in western Scotland within the area drained by the Hebrides Ice Stream, a marine-based ice stream that drained a large proportion of the former British-Irish Ice Sheet. Exposure ages from Tiree constrain deglaciation of a topographic high within the central zone of the ice stream, from which convergent flowsets were produced during ice streaming. These ages thus constrain thinning of the Hebrides Ice Stream, which, on the basis of supporting information, we infer to represent cessation of ice streaming at 20.6 ± 1.2 ka, 3-4 ka earlier than previously inferred. A period of more topographically restricted flow produced flow indicators superimposed on those relating to full ice stream conditions, and exposure ages from up-stream of these constrain deglaciation to 17.5 ± 1.0 ka. Complete deglaciation of the marine sector of the Hebrides Ice Stream occurred by 17-16 ka at which time the ice margin was located near the present coastline. Exposure ages from the southernmost Outer Hebrides (Mingulay and Barra) indicate deglaciation at 18.9 ± 1.0 and 17.1 ± 1.0 ka respectively, demonstrating that an independent ice cap persisted on the southern Outer Hebrides for 3-4 ka after initial ice stream deglaciation. This suggests that deglaciation of the Hebrides Ice Stream was focused along major submarine troughs. Collectively, our data constrain initial deglaciation and changes in flow regime of the Hebrides Ice Stream, final deglaciation of its marine sector, and deglaciation of the southern portion of the independent Outer Hebrides Ice Cap, providing chronological constraints on future numerical reconstructions of this key sector of the former British-Irish Ice Sheet.

Ecohydrological and subsurface controls on drought-induced contraction and disconnection of stream networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Godsey, S.; Kirchner, J. W.; Whiting, J. A.

2016-12-01

Temporary headwater streams - both intermittent and ephemeral waterways - supply water to approximately 1/3 of the US population, and 60% of streams used for drinking water are temporary. Stream ecologists increasingly recognize that a gradient of processes across the drying continuum affect ecosystems at dynamic terrestrial-aquatic interfaces. Understanding the hydrological controls across that gradient of drying may improve management of these sensitive systems. One possible control on surface flows includes transpiration losses from either the riparian zone or the entire watershed. We mapped several stream networks under extreme low flow conditions brought on by severe drought in central Idaho and California in 2015. Compared to previous low-flow stream length estimates, the active drainage network had generally decreased by a very small amount across these sites, perhaps because stored water buffered the precipitation decrease, or because flowing channel heads are fixed by focused groundwater flow emerging at springs. We also examined the apparent sources of water for both riparian and hillslope trees using isotopic techniques. During drought conditions, we hypothesized that riparian trees - but not those far from flowing streams - would be sustained by streamflow recharging riparian aquifers, and thus would transpire water that was isotopically similar to streamflow because little soil water would remain available below the wilting point and stream water would be sustain those trees. We found a more complex pattern, but in most places stream water and water transpired by trees were isotopically distinct regardless of flow intermittency or tree location. We also found that hillslope trees outside of the riparian zone appeared to be using different waters from those used by riparian trees. Finally, we explore subsurface controls on network extent, showing that bedrock characteristics can influence network stability and contraction patterns.

Structure, transport, and vertical coherence of the Gulf Stream from the Straits of Florida to the Southeast Newfoundland Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinen, Christopher S.; Luther, Douglas S.

2016-06-01

Data from three independent and extensive field programs in the Straits of Florida, the Mid-Atlantic Bight, and near the Southeast Newfoundland Ridge are reanalyzed and compared with results from other historical studies to highlight the downstream evolution of several characteristics of the Gulf Stream's mean flow and variability. The three locations represent distinct dynamical regimes: a tightly confined jet in a channel; a freely meandering jet; and a topographically controlled jet on a boundary. Despite these differing dynamical regimes, the Gulf Stream in these areas exhibits many similarities. There are also anticipated and important differences, such as the loss of the warm core of the current by 42°N and the decrease in the cross-frontal gradient of potential vorticity as the current flows northward. As the Gulf Stream evolves it undergoes major changes in transport, both in magnitude and structure. The rate of inflow up to 60°W and outflow thereafter are generally uniform, but do exhibit some remarkable short-scale variations. As the Gulf Stream flows northward the vertical coherence of the flow changes, with the Florida Current and North Atlantic Current segments of the Gulf Stream exhibiting distinct upper and deep flows that are incoherent, while in the Mid-Atlantic Bight the Gulf Stream exhibits flows in three layers each of which tends to be incoherent with the other layers at most periods. These coherence characteristics are exhibited in both Eulerian and stream coordinates. The observed lack of vertical coherence indicates that great caution must be exercised in interpreting proxies for Gulf Stream structure and flow from vertically-limited or remote observations.

Structure, transport, and vertical coherence of the Gulf Stream from the Straits of Florida to the Southeast Newfoundland Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meinen, Christopher S.; Luther, Douglas S.

2016-05-01

Data from three independent and extensive field programs in the Straits of Florida, the Mid-Atlantic Bight, and near the Southeast Newfoundland Ridge are reanalyzed and compared with results from other historical studies to highlight the downstream evolution of several characteristics of the Gulf Stream's mean flow and variability. The three locations represent distinct dynamical regimes: a tightly confined jet in a channel; a freely meandering jet; and a topographically controlled jet on a boundary. Despite these differing dynamical regimes, the Gulf Stream in these areas exhibits many similarities. There are also anticipated and important differences, such as the loss of the warm core of the current by 42°N and the decrease in the cross-frontal gradient of potential vorticity as the current flows northward. As the Gulf Stream evolves it undergoes major changes in transport, both in magnitude and structure. The rate of inflow up to 60°W and outflow thereafter are generally uniform, but do exhibit some remarkable short-scale variations. As the Gulf Stream flows northward the vertical coherence of the flow changes, with the Florida Current and North Atlantic Current segments of the Gulf Stream exhibiting distinct upper and deep flows that are incoherent, while in the Mid-Atlantic Bight the Gulf Stream exhibits flows in three layers each of which tends to be incoherent with the other layers at most periods. These coherence characteristics are exhibited in both Eulerian and stream coordinates. The observed lack of vertical coherence indicates that great caution must be exercised in interpreting proxies for Gulf Stream structure and flow from vertically-limited or remote observations.

40 CFR Table 5 to Subpart Ppp of... - Process Vents From Batch Unit Operations-Monitoring, Recordkeeping, and Reporting Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... Carbon Adsorber f Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s), and 1. Record of total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow for each carbon bed regeneration cycle.2. Record and report the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during each...

40 CFR Table 5 to Subpart Ppp of... - Process Vents From Batch Unit Operations-Monitoring, Recordkeeping, and Reporting Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

... Carbon Adsorber f Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s), and 1. Record of total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow for each carbon bed regeneration cycle.2. Record and report the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during each...

40 CFR Table 5 to Subpart Ppp of... - Process Vents From Batch Unit Operations-Monitoring, Recordkeeping, and Reporting Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Carbon Adsorber f Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s), and 1. Record of total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow for each carbon bed regeneration cycle.2. Record and report the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during each...

Simple Scaling of Mulit-Stream Jet Plumes for Aeroacoustic Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridges, James

2016-01-01

When creating simplified, semi-empirical models for the noise of simple single-stream jets near surfaces it has proven useful to be able to generalize the geometry of the jet plume. Having a model that collapses the mean and turbulent velocity fields for a range of flows allows the problem to become one of relating the normalized jet field and the surface. However, most jet flows of practical interest involve jets of two or more coannular flows for which standard models for the plume geometry do not exist. The present paper describes one attempt to relate the mean and turbulent velocity fields of multi-stream jets to that of an equivalent single-stream jet. The normalization of single-stream jets is briefly reviewed, from the functional form of the flow model to the results of the modeling. Next, PIV data from a number of multi-stream jets is analyzed in a similar fashion. The results of several single-stream approximations of the multi-stream jet plume are demonstrated, with a best approximation determined and the shortcomings of the model highlighted.

Simple Scaling of Multi-Stream Jet Plumes for Aeroacoustic Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridges, James

2015-01-01

When creating simplified, semi-empirical models for the noise of simple single-stream jets near surfaces it has proven useful to be able to generalize the geometry of the jet plume. Having a model that collapses the mean and turbulent velocity fields for a range of flows allows the problem to become one of relating the normalized jet field and the surface. However, most jet flows of practical interest involve jets of two or more co-annular flows for which standard models for the plume geometry do not exist. The present paper describes one attempt to relate the mean and turbulent velocity fields of multi-stream jets to that of an equivalent single-stream jet. The normalization of single-stream jets is briefly reviewed, from the functional form of the flow model to the results of the modeling. Next, PIV (Particle Image Velocimetry) data from a number of multi-stream jets is analyzed in a similar fashion. The results of several single-stream approximations of the multi-stream jet plume are demonstrated, with a 'best' approximation determined and the shortcomings of the model highlighted.

Better to Be Active (Rather Than Passive) When Considering How Soil Moisture Can Help Decision Makers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mace, R.

2016-12-01

As recent events have shown, Texas is a land of drought and flood. Texas experienced the worst one-year drought of record in 2011; the second worst statewide drought of record between 2010 and 2015; and record-breaking floods in the spring of 2015, fall of 2015, and spring of 2016 (with flash droughts occurring during the summers of 2015 and 2016). Soil moisture is one factor that links drought and flood in addressing key policy and management questions: When will soil moisture be high enough to allow groundwater recharge and runoff into reservoirs? When will soil moisture be high enough to cause flash floods with excessive rainfall? After tragic floods in Wimberley in the spring of 2015, Texas is expanding its stream-flow monitoring capabilities and is starting a statewide mesonet called TexMesonet to provide more detailed weather information to flood forecasters but also to provide baseline information on soil moisture for flood, drought, and water conservation purposes. Our hope is that the TexMesonet will help ground-truth SMAP and other remote sensing systems, help improve the National Water Model (a next generation tool for flood forecasting), and spark research into sub-basin soil moisture predictors of runoff which break water-supply droughts or lead to major floods.

Adjustment of spatio-temporal precipitation patterns in a high Alpine environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrnegger, Mathew; Senoner, Tobias; Nachtnebel, Hans-Peter

2018-01-01

This contribution presents a method for correcting the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation fields in a mountainous environment. The approach is applied within a flood forecasting model in the Upper Enns catchment in the Central Austrian Alps. Precipitation exhibits a large spatio-temporal variability in Alpine areas. Additionally the density of the monitoring network is low and measurements are subjected to major errors. This can lead to significant deficits in water balance estimation and stream flow simulations, e.g. for flood forecasting models. Therefore precipitation correction factors are frequently applied. For the presented study a multiplicative, stepwise linear correction model is implemented in the rainfall-runoff model COSERO to adjust the precipitation pattern as a function of elevation. To account for the local meteorological conditions, the correction model is derived for two elevation zones: (1) Valley floors to 2000 m a.s.l. and (2) above 2000 m a.s.l. to mountain peaks. Measurement errors also depend on the precipitation type, with higher magnitudes in winter months during snow fall. Therefore, additionally, separate correction factors for winter and summer months are estimated. Significant improvements in the runoff simulations could be achieved, not only in the long-term water balance simulation and the overall model performance, but also in the simulation of flood peaks.

ScienceCast 31: Draconid Meteor Outburst

NASA Image and Video Library

2011-10-05

Forecasters say Earth is heading for a stream of dust from Comet 21P/Giacobini-Zinner. A close encounter with the comet's fragile debris could spark a meteor outburst over parts of our planet on October 8th.

Geospatial wetlands impacts and mitigation forecasting models.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-06-30

The South Carolina Department of Transportation (SCDOT) develops near (3-5 years) and long (15- 20 years) range plans for road widening, alignment, bridge replacement, and new road construction. Each road/bridge project may impact wetlands or streams...

Estimating Discharge and Nonpoint Source Nitrate Loading to Streams From Three End-Member Pathways Using High-Frequency Water Quality Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Matthew P.; Tesoriero, Anthony J.; Hood, Krista; Terziotti, Silvia; Wolock, David M.

2017-12-01

The myriad hydrologic and biogeochemical processes taking place in watersheds occurring across space and time are integrated and reflected in the quantity and quality of water in streams and rivers. Collection of high-frequency water quality data with sensors in surface waters provides new opportunities to disentangle these processes and quantify sources and transport of water and solutes in the coupled groundwater-surface water system. A new approach for separating the streamflow hydrograph into three components was developed and coupled with high-frequency nitrate data to estimate time-variable nitrate loads from chemically dilute quick flow, chemically concentrated quick flow, and slowflow groundwater end-member pathways for periods of up to 2 years in a groundwater-dominated and a quick-flow-dominated stream in central Wisconsin, using only streamflow and in-stream water quality data. The dilute and concentrated quick flow end-members were distinguished using high-frequency specific conductance data. Results indicate that dilute quick flow contributed less than 5% of the nitrate load at both sites, whereas 89 ± 8% of the nitrate load at the groundwater-dominated stream was from slowflow groundwater, and 84 ± 25% of the nitrate load at the quick-flow-dominated stream was from concentrated quick flow. Concentrated quick flow nitrate concentrations varied seasonally at both sites, with peak concentrations in the winter that were 2-3 times greater than minimum concentrations during the growing season. Application of this approach provides an opportunity to assess stream vulnerability to nonpoint source nitrate loading and expected stream responses to current or changing conditions and practices in watersheds.

Scaling Stream Flow Response to Forest Disturbance: the SID Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buttle, J. M.; Beall, F. D.; Creed, I. F.; Gordon, A. M.; Mackereth, R.; McLaughlin, J. W.; Sibley, P. K.

2004-05-01

We do not have a good understanding of the hydrologic implications of forest harvesting in Ontario, either for current or alternative management approaches. Attempts to address these implications face a three-fold problem: data on hydrologic response to forest disturbance in Ontario are lacking; most studies of these responses have been in regions with forest cover and hydrologic conditions that differ from the Ontario context; and these studies have generally been conducted at relatively small scales (<1 km2). It is generally assumed that hydrologic changes induced by forest disturbance should diminish with increasing scale due to the buffering capacity of large drainage basins. Recent modeling exercises and reanalysis of paired-basin results call this widespread applicability of this assumption into question, with important implications for assessing the cumulative impacts of forest disturbance on basin stream flow. The SID (Scalable Indicators of Disturbance) project combines stream flow monitoring across basin scales with the RHESSys modeling framework to identify forest disturbance impacts on stream flow characteristics in Ontario's major forest ecozones. As a precursor to identifying stream flow response to forest disturbance, we are examining the relative control of basin geology, topography, typology and topology on stream flow characteristics under undisturbed conditions. This will assist in identifying the dominant hydrologic processes controlling basin stream flow that must be incorporated into the RHESSys model framework in order to emulate forest disturbance and its hydrologic impacts. We present preliminary results on stream flow characteristics in a low-relief boreal forest landscape, and explore how the dominant processes influencing these characteristics change with basin scale in this landscape under both reference and disturbance conditions.

Apparatus for removal of particulate matter from gas streams

DOEpatents

Smith, Peyton L.; Morse, John C.

2000-01-01

An apparatus for the removal of particulate matter from the gaseous product stream of an entrained flow coal gasifier which apparatus includes an initial screen, an intermediate screen which is aligned with the direction of flow of the gaseous product stream and a final screen transversely disposed to the flow of gaseous product and which apparatus is capable of withstanding at least a pressure differential of about 10 psi (68.95 kPa) or greater at the temperatures of the gaseous product stream.

Knowledge-based modularization and global optimization of artificial neural network models in hydrological forecasting.

PubMed

Corzo, Gerald; Solomatine, Dimitri

2007-05-01

Natural phenomena are multistationary and are composed of a number of interacting processes, so one single model handling all processes often suffers from inaccuracies. A solution is to partition data in relation to such processes using the available domain knowledge or expert judgment, to train separate models for each of the processes, and to merge them in a modular model (committee). In this paper a problem of water flow forecast in watershed hydrology is considered where the flow process can be presented as consisting of two subprocesses -- base flow and excess flow, so that these two processes can be separated. Several approaches to data separation techniques are studied. Two case studies with different forecast horizons are considered. Parameters of the algorithms responsible for data partitioning are optimized using genetic algorithms and global pattern search. It was found that modularization of ANN models using domain knowledge makes models more accurate, if compared with a global model trained on the whole data set, especially when forecast horizon (and hence the complexity of the modelled processes) is increased.

Real-time Ensemble Flow Forecasts for a 2017 Mock Operation Test Trial of Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations for Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Mendoza, J.; Jasperse, J.; Hartman, R. K.; Whitin, B.; Kalansky, J.

2017-12-01

Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation and flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. The Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) alternative is a probabilistic approach of FIRO that incorporates 15-day ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, release decisions are made to manage forecasted risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to conduct a mock operation test trial of the EFO alternative for 2017. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The operational trial utilized real-time ESPs prepared by the CNRFC and observed flow information to simulate hydrologic conditions in Lake Mendocino and a 50-mile downstream reach of the Russian River to the City of Healdsburg. Results of the EFO trial demonstrate a 6% increase in reservoir storage at the end of trial period (May 10) relative to observed conditions. Additionally, model results show no increase in flows above flood stage for points downstream of Lake Mendocino. Results of this investigation and other studies demonstrate that the EFO alternative may be a viable flood control operations approach for Lake Mendocino and warrants further investigation through additional modeling and analysis.

Evaluating Snow Data Assimilation Framework for Streamflow Forecasting Applications Using Hindcast Verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barik, M. G.; Hogue, T. S.; Franz, K. J.; He, M.

2012-12-01

Snow water equivalent (SWE) estimation is a key factor in producing reliable streamflow simulations and forecasts in snow dominated areas. However, measuring or predicting SWE has significant uncertainty. Sequential data assimilation, which updates states using both observed and modeled data based on error estimation, has been shown to reduce streamflow simulation errors but has had limited testing for forecasting applications. In the current study, a snow data assimilation framework integrated with the National Weather System River Forecasting System (NWSRFS) is evaluated for use in ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). Seasonal water supply ESP hindcasts are generated for the North Fork of the American River Basin (NFARB) in northern California. Parameter sets from the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), the Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm and the Multistep Automated Calibration Scheme (MACS) are tested both with and without sequential data assimilation. The traditional ESP method considers uncertainty in future climate conditions using historical temperature and precipitation time series to generate future streamflow scenarios conditioned on the current basin state. We include data uncertainty analysis in the forecasting framework through the DREAM-based parameter set which is part of a recently developed Integrated Uncertainty and Ensemble-based data Assimilation framework (ICEA). Extensive verification of all tested approaches is undertaken using traditional forecast verification measures, including root mean square error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE), volumetric bias, joint distribution, rank probability score (RPS), and discrimination and reliability plots. In comparison to the RFC parameters, the DREAM and MACS sets show significant improvement in volumetric bias in flow. Use of assimilation improves hindcasts of higher flows but does not significantly improve performance in the mid flow and low flow categories.

Switch of flow direction in an Antarctic ice stream.

PubMed

Conway, H; Catania, G; Raymond, C F; Gades, A M; Scambos, T A; Engelhardt, H

2002-10-03

Fast-flowing ice streams transport ice from the interior of West Antarctica to the ocean, and fluctuations in their activity control the mass balance of the ice sheet. The mass balance of the Ross Sea sector of the West Antarctic ice sheet is now positive--that is, it is growing--mainly because one of the ice streams (ice stream C) slowed down about 150 years ago. Here we present evidence from both surface measurements and remote sensing that demonstrates the highly dynamic nature of the Ross drainage system. We show that the flow in an area that once discharged into ice stream C has changed direction, now draining into the Whillans ice stream (formerly ice stream B). This switch in flow direction is a result of continuing thinning of the Whillans ice stream and recent thickening of ice stream C. Further abrupt reorganization of the activity and configuration of the ice streams over short timescales is to be expected in the future as the surface topography of the ice sheet responds to the combined effects of internal dynamics and long-term climate change. We suggest that caution is needed when using observations of short-term mass changes to draw conclusions about the large-scale mass balance of the ice sheet.

A real-time evaluation and demonstration of strategies for 'Over-The-Loop' ensemble streamflow forecasting in US watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wood, Andy; Clark, Elizabeth; Mendoza, Pablo; Nijssen, Bart; Newman, Andy; Clark, Martyn; Nowak, Kenneth; Arnold, Jeffrey

2017-04-01

Many if not most national operational streamflow prediction systems rely on a forecaster-in-the-loop approach that require the hands-on-effort of an experienced human forecaster. This approach evolved from the need to correct for long-standing deficiencies in the models and datasets used in forecasting, and the practice often leads to skillful flow predictions despite the use of relatively simple, conceptual models. Yet the 'in-the-loop' forecast process is not reproducible, which limits opportunities to assess and incorporate new techniques systematically, and the effort required to make forecasts in this way is an obstacle to expanding forecast services - e.g., though adding new forecast locations or more frequent forecast updates, running more complex models, or producing forecast and hindcasts that can support verification. In the last decade, the hydrologic forecasting community has begun develop more centralized, 'over-the-loop' systems. The quality of these new forecast products will depend on their ability to leverage research in areas including earth system modeling, parameter estimation, data assimilation, statistical post-processing, weather and climate prediction, verification, and uncertainty estimation through the use of ensembles. Currently, many national operational streamflow forecasting and water management communities have little experience with the strengths and weaknesses of over-the-loop approaches, even as such systems are beginning to be deployed operationally in centers such as ECMWF. There is thus a need both to evaluate these forecasting advances and to demonstrate their potential in a public arena, raising awareness in forecast user communities and development programs alike. To address this need, the US National Center for Atmospheric Research is collaborating with the University of Washington, the Bureau of Reclamation and the US Army Corps of Engineers, using the NCAR 'System for Hydromet Analysis Research and Prediction Applications' (SHARP) to implement, assess and demonstrate real-time over-the-loop ensemble flow forecasts in a range of US watersheds. The system relies on fully ensemble techniques, including: an 100-member ensemble of meteorological model forcings and an ensemble particle filter data assimilation for initializing watershed states; analog/regression-based downscaling of ensemble weather forecasts from GEFS; and statistical post-processing of ensemble forecast outputs, all of which run in real-time within a workflow managed by ECWMF's ecFlow libraries over large US regional domains. We describe SHARP and present early hindcast and verification results for short to seasonal range streamflow forecasts in a number of US case study watersheds.

Satellite-driven modeling approach for monitoring lava flow hazards during the 2017 Etna eruption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Del Negro, C.; Bilotta, G.; Cappello, A.; Ganci, G.; Herault, A.; Zago, V.

2017-12-01

The integration of satellite data and modeling represents an efficient strategy that may provide immediate answers to the main issues raised at the onset of a new effusive eruption. Satellite-based thermal remote sensing of hotspots related to effusive activity can effectively provide a variety of products suited to timing, locating, and tracking the radiant character of lava flows. Hotspots show the location and occurrence of eruptive events (vents). Discharge rate estimates may indicate the current intensity (effusion rate) and potential magnitude (volume). High-spatial resolution multispectral satellite data can complement field observations for monitoring the front position (length) and extension of flows (area). Physics-based models driven, or validated, by satellite-derived parameters are now capable of fast and accurate forecast of lava flow inundation scenarios (hazard). Here, we demonstrate the potential of the integrated application of satellite remote-sensing techniques and lava flow models during the 2017 effusive eruption at Mount Etna in Italy. This combined approach provided insights into lava flow field evolution by supplying detailed views of flow field construction (e.g., the opening of ephemeral vents) that were useful for more accurate and reliable forecasts of eruptive activity. Moreover, we gave a detailed chronology of the lava flow activity based on field observations and satellite images, assessed the potential extent of impacted areas, mapped the evolution of lava flow field, and executed hazard projections. The underside of this combination is the high sensitivity of lava flow inundation scenarios to uncertainties in vent location, discharge rate, and other parameters, which can make interpreting hazard forecasts difficult during an effusive crisis. However, such integration at last makes timely forecasts of lava flow hazards during effusive crises possible at the great majority of volcanoes for which no monitoring exists.

NOAA-USGS Debris-Flow Warning System - Final Report

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2005-01-01

Landslides and debris flows cause loss of life and millions of dollars in property damage annually in the United States (National Research Council, 2004). In an effort to reduce loss of life by debris flows, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS) and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) operated an experimental debris-flow prediction and warning system in the San Francisco Bay area from 1986 to 1995 that relied on forecasts and measurements of precipitation linked to empirical precipitation thresholds to predict the onset of rainfall-triggered debris flows. Since 1995, there have been substantial improvements in quantifying precipitation estimates and forecasts, development of better models for delineating landslide hazards, and advancements in geographic information technology that allow stronger spatial and temporal linkage between precipitation forecasts and hazard models. Unfortunately, there have also been several debris flows that have caused loss of life and property across the United States. Establishment of debris-flow warning systems in areas where linkages between rainfall amounts and debris-flow occurrence have been identified can help mitigate the hazards posed by these types of landslides. Development of a national warning system can help support the NOAA-USGS goal of issuing timely Warnings of potential debris flows to the affected populace and civil authorities on a broader scale. This document presents the findings and recommendations of a joint NOAA-USGS Task Force that assessed the current state-of-the-art in precipitation forecasting and debris-flow hazard-assessment techniques. This report includes an assessment of the science and resources needed to establish a demonstration debris-flow warning project in recently burned areas of southern California and the necessary scientific advancements and resources associated with expanding such a warning system to unburned areas and, possibly, to a national scope.

Ensemble Flow Forecasts for Risk Based Reservoir Operations of Lake Mendocino in Mendocino County, California: A Framework for Objectively Leveraging Weather and Climate Forecasts in a Decision Support Environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delaney, C.; Hartman, R. K.; Mendoza, J.; Whitin, B.

2017-12-01

Forecast informed reservoir operations (FIRO) is a methodology that incorporates short to mid-range precipitation and flow forecasts to inform the flood operations of reservoirs. The Ensemble Forecast Operations (EFO) alternative is a probabilistic approach of FIRO that incorporates ensemble streamflow predictions (ESPs) made by NOAA's California-Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC). With the EFO approach, release decisions are made to manage forecasted risk of reaching critical operational thresholds. A water management model was developed for Lake Mendocino, a 111,000 acre-foot reservoir located near Ukiah, California, to evaluate the viability of the EFO alternative to improve water supply reliability but not increase downstream flood risk. Lake Mendocino is a dual use reservoir, which is owned and operated for flood control by the United States Army Corps of Engineers and is operated for water supply by the Sonoma County Water Agency. Due to recent changes in the operations of an upstream hydroelectric facility, this reservoir has suffered from water supply reliability issues since 2007. The EFO alternative was simulated using a 26-year (1985-2010) ESP hindcast generated by the CNRFC. The ESP hindcast was developed using Global Ensemble Forecast System version 10 precipitation reforecasts processed with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System to generate daily reforecasts of 61 flow ensemble members for a 15-day forecast horizon. Model simulation results demonstrate that the EFO alternative may improve water supply reliability for Lake Mendocino yet not increase flood risk for downstream areas. The developed operations framework can directly leverage improved skill in the second week of the forecast and is extendable into the S2S time domain given the demonstration of improved skill through a reliable reforecast of adequate historical duration and consistent with operationally available numerical weather predictions.

Towards an Australian ensemble streamflow forecasting system for flood prediction and water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bennett, J.; David, R. E.; Wang, Q.; Li, M.; Shrestha, D. L.

2016-12-01

Flood forecasting in Australia has historically relied on deterministic forecasting models run only when floods are imminent, with considerable forecaster input and interpretation. These now co-existed with a continually available 7-day streamflow forecasting service (also deterministic) aimed at operational water management applications such as environmental flow releases. The 7-day service is not optimised for flood prediction. We describe progress on developing a system for ensemble streamflow forecasting that is suitable for both flood prediction and water management applications. Precipitation uncertainty is handled through post-processing of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) output with a Bayesian rainfall post-processor (RPP). The RPP corrects biases, downscales NWP output, and produces reliable ensemble spread. Ensemble precipitation forecasts are used to force a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Uncertainty in precipitation forecasts is insufficient to reliably describe streamflow forecast uncertainty, particularly at shorter lead-times. We characterise hydrological prediction uncertainty separately with a 4-stage error model. The error model relies on data transformation to ensure residuals are homoscedastic and symmetrically distributed. To ensure streamflow forecasts are accurate and reliable, the residuals are modelled using a mixture-Gaussian distribution with distinct parameters for the rising and falling limbs of the forecast hydrograph. In a case study of the Murray River in south-eastern Australia, we show ensemble predictions of floods generally have lower errors than deterministic forecasting methods. We also discuss some of the challenges in operationalising short-term ensemble streamflow forecasts in Australia, including meeting the needs for accurate predictions across all flow ranges and comparing forecasts generated by event and continuous hydrological models.

A pilot study of river flow prediction in urban area based on phase space reconstruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adenan, Nur Hamiza; Hamid, Nor Zila Abd; Mohamed, Zulkifley; Noorani, Mohd Salmi Md

2017-08-01

River flow prediction is significantly related to urban hydrology impact which can provide information to solve any problems such as flood in urban area. The daily river flow of Klang River, Malaysia was chosen to be forecasted in this pilot study which based on phase space reconstruction. The reconstruction of phase space involves a single variable of river flow data to m-dimensional phase space in which the dimension (m) is based on the optimal values of Cao method. The results from the reconstruction of phase space have been used in the forecasting process using local linear approximation method. From our investigation, river flow at Klang River is chaotic based on the analysis from Cao method. The overall results provide good value of correlation coefficient. The value of correlation coefficient is acceptable since the area of the case study is influence by a lot of factors. Therefore, this pilot study may be proposed to forecast daily river flow data with the purpose of providing information about the flow of the river system in urban area.

Low-flow profiles of the upper Savannah and Ogeechee Rivers and tributaries in Georgia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Carter, R.F.; Hopkins, E.H.; Perlman, H.A.

1988-01-01

Low flow information is provided for use in an evaluation of the capacity of streams to permit withdrawals or to accept waste loads without exceeding the limits of State water quality standards. The purpose of this report is to present the results of a compilation of available low flow data in the form of tables and ' 7Q10 flow profiles ' (minimum average flow for 7 consecutive days with a 10-yr recurrence interval)(7Q10 flow plotted against distance along a stream channel) for all streams reaches of the Upper Savannah and Ogeechee Rivers and tributaries where sufficient data of acceptable accuracy are available. Drainage area profiles are included for all stream basins larger than 5 sq mi, except for those in a few remote areas. This report is the third in a series of reports that will cover all stream basins north of the Fall Line in Georgia. It includes the Georgia part of the Savannah River basin from its headwaters down to and including McBean Creek, and Brier Creek from its headwaters down to and including Boggy Gut Creek. It also includes the Ogeechee River from its headwaters down to and including Big Creek, and Rocky Comfort Creek (tributary to Ogeechee River) down to the Glascock-Jefferson County line. Flow records were not adjusted for diversions or other factors that cause measured flows to represent other than natural flow conditions. The 7-day minimum flow profile was omitted for stream reaches where natural flow was known to be altered significantly. (Lantz-PTT)

Detecting climate change oriented and human induced changes in stream temperature across the Southeastern U.S.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, X.; Voisin, N.; Cheng, Y.; Niemeyer, R. J.; Nijssen, B.; Yearsley, J. R.; Zhou, T.

2017-12-01

In many areas, climate change is expected to alter the flow regime and increase stream temperature, especially during summer low flow periods. During these low flow periods, water management increases flows in order to sustain human activities such as water for irrigation and hydroelectric power generation. Water extraction from rivers during warm season can increase stream temperature while reservoir regulation may cool downstream river temperatures by releasing cool water from deep layers. Thus, it is reasonable to hypothesize that water management changes the sensitivity of the stream temperature regime to climate change when compared to unmanaged resources. The time of emergence of change refers to the point in time when observations, or model simulations, show statistically significant changes from a given baseline period, i.e. above natural variability. Here we aim to address two questions by investigating the time of emergence of changes in stream temperature in the southeastern United States: what is the sensitivity of stream temperature under regulated flow conditions to climate change and what is the contribution of water management in increasing or decreasing stream temperature sensitivity to climate change. We simulate regulated flow by using runoff from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) macroscale hydrological model as input into a large scale river routing and reservoir model MOSART-WM. The River Basin Model (RBM), a distributed stream temperature model, includes a two-layer thermal stratification module to simulate stream temperature in regulated river systems. We evaluate the timing of emergence of changes in flow and stream temperature based on climate projections from two representative concentration pathways (RCPs; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). We analyze the difference in emergence of change between natural and regulated streamflow. Insights will be provided toward applications for multiple sectors of activities including electrical resources adequacy studies over the southeastern U.S.

Development of the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process for Determining Environmental Flows for New Jersey Streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennen, Jonathan G.; Henriksen, James A.; Nieswand, Steven P.

2007-01-01

The natural flow regime paradigm and parallel stream ecological concepts and theories have established the benefits of maintaining or restoring the full range of natural hydrologic variation for physiochemical processes, biodiversity, and the evolutionary potential of aquatic and riparian communities. A synthesis of recent advances in hydroecological research coupled with stream classification has resulted in a new process to determine environmental flows and assess hydrologic alteration. This process has national and international applicability. It allows classification of streams into hydrologic stream classes and identification of a set of non-redundant and ecologically relevant hydrologic indices for 10 critical sub-components of flow. Three computer programs have been developed for implementing the Hydroecological Integrity Assessment Process (HIP): (1) the Hydrologic Indices Tool (HIT), which calculates 171 ecologically relevant hydrologic indices on the basis of daily-flow and peak-flow stream-gage data; (2) the New Jersey Hydrologic Assessment Tool (NJHAT), which can be used to establish a hydrologic baseline period, provide options for setting baseline environmental-flow standards, and compare past and proposed streamflow alterations; and (3) the New Jersey Stream Classification Tool (NJSCT), designed for placing unclassified streams into pre-defined stream classes. Biological and multivariate response models including principal-component, cluster, and discriminant-function analyses aided in the development of software and implementation of the HIP for New Jersey. A pilot effort is currently underway by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection in which the HIP is being used to evaluate the effects of past and proposed surface-water use, ground-water extraction, and land-use changes on stream ecosystems while determining the most effective way to integrate the process into ongoing regulatory programs. Ultimately, this scientifically defensible process will help to quantify the effects of anthropogenic changes and development on hydrologic variability and help planners and resource managers balance current and future water requirements with ecological needs.

Field study and simulation of diurnal temperature effects on infiltration and variably saturated flow beneath an ephemeral stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudek Ronan, Anne; Prudic, David E.; Thodal, Carl E.; Constantz, Jim

1998-01-01

Two experiments were performed to investigate flow beneath an ephemeral stream and to estimate streambed infiltration rates. Discharge and stream-area measurements were used to determine infiltration rates. Stream and subsurface temperatures were used to interpret subsurface flow through variably saturated sediments beneath the stream. Spatial variations in subsurface temperatures suggest that flow beneath the streambed is dependent on the orientation of the stream in the canyon and the layering of the sediments. Streamflow and infiltration rates vary diurnally: Streamflow is lowest in late afternoon when stream temperature is greatest and highest in early morning when stream temperature is least. The lower afternoon Streamflow is attributed to increased infiltration rates; evapotranspiration is insufficient to account for the decreased Streamflow. The increased infiltration rates are attributed to viscosity effects on hydraulic conductivity from increased stream temperatures. The first set of field data was used to calibrate a two-dimensional variably saturated flow model that includes heat transport. The model was calibrated to (1) temperature fluctuations in the subsurface and (2) infiltration rates determined from measured Streamflow losses. The second set of field data was to evaluate the ability to predict infiltration rates on the basis of temperature measurements alone. Results indicate that the variably saturated subsurface flow depends on downcanyon layering of the sediments. They also support the field observations in indicating that diurnal changes in infiltration can be explained by temperature dependence of hydraulic conductivity. Over the range of temperatures and flows monitored, diurnal stream temperature changes can be used to estimate streambed infiltration rates. It is often impractical to maintain equipment for determining infiltration rates by traditional means; however, once a model is calibrated using both infiltration and temperature data, only relatively inexpensive temperature monitoring can later yield infiltration rates that are within the correct order of magnitude.

40 CFR Table 5 to Subpart Ppp of... - Process Vents From Batch Unit Operations-Monitoring, Recordkeeping, and Reporting Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... collected—PR. d,e Carbon Adsorber f Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s), and 1. Record of total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow for each carbon bed regeneration cycle.2. Record and report the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during each...

40 CFR Table 6 to Subpart Ppp of... - Process Vents From Continuous Unit Operations-Monitoring, Recordkeeping, and Reporting Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... operating—PR. d e Carbon Adsorber f Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s), and 1. Record of total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow for each carbon bed regeneration cycle.2. Record and report the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during each...

40 CFR Table 5 to Subpart Ppp of... - Process Vents From Batch Unit Operations-Monitoring, Recordkeeping, and Reporting Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... collected—PR. d e Carbon Adsorber f Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s), and 1. Record of total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow for each carbon bed regeneration cycle.2. Record and report the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during each...

40 CFR Table 6 to Subpart Ppp of... - Process Vents From Continuous Unit Operations-Monitoring, Recordkeeping, and Reporting Requirements

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... operating—PR. d,e Carbon Adsorber f Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s), and 1. Record of total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow for each carbon bed regeneration cycle.2. Record and report the total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during each...

Following a river wherever it goes: beneath the surface of mountain streams.

Treesearch

Jonathan Thompson; Sally Duncan

2004-01-01

The flow of a mountain stream is difficult to follow, especially when it weaves in and out of the channel, flowing through streambanks and seeping through the streambed. Flowing belowground, the stream water mixes with ground water in the riparian aquifer before reemerging in the channel, sometime later and somewhere further downstream. Underground, the water undergoes...

Hydrologic and geomorphic controls on hyporheic exchange during base flow recession in a headwater mountain stream

Treesearch

A.S. Ward; M. Fitzgerald; M.N. Gooseff; A.M. Binley; K. Singha

2012-01-01

Hyporheic hydrodynamics are a control on stream ecosystems, yet we lack a thorough understanding of catchment controls on these flow paths, including valley constraint and hydraulic gradients in the valley bottom. We performed four whole-stream solute tracer injections under steady state flow conditions at the H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (Oregon, United States)...

Classification of ephemeral, intermittent, and perennial stream reaches using a TOPMODEL-based approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Williamson, Tanja N.; Agouridis, Carmen T.; Barton, Christopher D.; Villines, Jonathan A.; Lant, Jeremiah G.

2015-01-01

Whether a waterway is temporary or permanent influences regulatory protection guidelines, however, classification can be subjective due to a combination of factors, including time of year, antecedent moisture conditions, and previous experience of the field investigator. Our objective was to develop a standardized protocol using publically available spatial information to classify ephemeral, intermittent, and perennial streams. Our hypothesis was that field observations of flow along the stream channel could be compared to results from a hydrologic model, providing an objective method of how these stream reaches can be identified. Flow-state sensors were placed at ephemeral, intermittent, and perennial stream reaches from May to December 2011 in the Appalachian coal basin of eastern Kentucky. This observed flow record was then used to calibrate the simulated saturation deficit in each channel reach based on the topographic wetness index used by TOPMODEL. Saturation deficit values were categorized as flow or no-flow days, and the simulated record of streamflow was compared to the observed record. The hydrologic model was more accurate for simulating flow during the spring and fall seasons. However, the model effectively identified stream reaches as intermittent and perennial in each of the two basins.

Influence of perched groundwater on base flow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Niswonger, Richard G.; Fogg, Graham E.

2008-01-01

Analysis with a three‐dimensional variably saturated groundwater flow model provides a basic understanding of the interplay between streams and perched groundwater. A simplified, layered model of heterogeneity was used to explore these relationships. Base flow contribution from perched groundwater was evaluated with regard to varying hydrogeologic conditions, including the size and location of the fine‐sediment unit and the hydraulic conductivity of the fine‐sediment unit and surrounding coarser sediment. Simulated base flow was sustained by perched groundwater with a maximum monthly discharge in excess of 15 L/s (0.6 feet3/s) over the length of the 2000‐m stream reach. Generally, the rate of perched‐groundwater discharge to the stream was proportional to the hydraulic conductivity of sediment surrounding the stream, whereas the duration of discharge was proportional to the hydraulic conductivity of the fine‐sediment unit. Other aspects of the perched aquifer affected base flow, such as the depth of stream penetration and the size of the fine‐sediment unit. Greater stream penetration decreased the maximum base flow contribution but increased the duration of contribution. Perched groundwater provided water for riparian vegetation at the demand rate but reduced the duration of perched‐groundwater discharge nearly 75%.

Size-selective sorting in bubble streaming flows: Particle migration on fast time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thameem, Raqeeb; Rallabandi, Bhargav; Hilgenfeldt, Sascha

2015-11-01

Steady streaming from ultrasonically driven microbubbles is an increasingly popular technique in microfluidics because such devices are easily manufactured and generate powerful and highly controllable flows. Combining streaming and Poiseuille transport flows allows for passive size-sensitive sorting at particle sizes and selectivities much smaller than the bubble radius. The crucial particle deflection and separation takes place over very small times (milliseconds) and length scales (20-30 microns) and can be rationalized using a simplified geometric mechanism. A quantitative theoretical description is achieved through the application of recent results on three-dimensional streaming flow field contributions. To develop a more fundamental understanding of the particle dynamics, we use high-speed photography of trajectories in polydisperse particle suspensions, recording the particle motion on the time scale of the bubble oscillation. Our data reveal the dependence of particle displacement on driving phase, particle size, oscillatory flow speed, and streaming speed. With this information, the effective repulsive force exerted by the bubble on the particle can be quantified, showing for the first time how fast, selective particle migration is effected in a streaming flow. We acknowledge support by the National Science Foundation under grant number CBET-1236141.

Parametric distribution approach for flow availability in small hydro potential analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdullah, Samizee; Basri, Mohd Juhari Mat; Jamaluddin, Zahrul Zamri; Azrulhisham, Engku Ahmad; Othman, Jamel

2016-10-01

Small hydro system is one of the important sources of renewable energy and it has been recognized worldwide as clean energy sources. Small hydropower generation system uses the potential energy in flowing water to produce electricity is often questionable due to inconsistent and intermittent of power generated. Potential analysis of small hydro system which is mainly dependent on the availability of water requires the knowledge of water flow or stream flow distribution. This paper presented the possibility of applying Pearson system for stream flow availability distribution approximation in the small hydro system. By considering the stochastic nature of stream flow, the Pearson parametric distribution approximation was computed based on the significant characteristic of Pearson system applying direct correlation between the first four statistical moments of the distribution. The advantage of applying various statistical moments in small hydro potential analysis will have the ability to analyze the variation shapes of stream flow distribution.

A bank-operated traveling-block cableway for stream discharge and sediment measurements

Treesearch

James J. Paradiso

2000-01-01

Streams often present a challenge for collecting flow and sediment measurements on a year-round basis. Streams that can normally be waded become hazardous during seasonal flows, either endangering hydrographers or precluding data collection completely. A hand-operated cableway permits the accurate and safe collection of discharge and sediment data from the stream bank...

Laser streaming: Turning a laser beam into a flow of liquid

PubMed Central

Wang, Yanan; Zhang, Qiuhui; Zhu, Zhuan; Lin, Feng; Deng, Jiangdong; Ku, Geng; Dong, Suchuan; Song, Shuo; Alam, Md Kamrul; Liu, Dong; Wang, Zhiming; Bao, Jiming

2017-01-01

Transforming a laser beam into a mass flow has been a challenge both scientifically and technologically. We report the discovery of a new optofluidic principle and demonstrate the generation of a steady-state water flow by a pulsed laser beam through a glass window. To generate a flow or stream in the same path as the refracted laser beam in pure water from an arbitrary spot on the window, we first fill a glass cuvette with an aqueous solution of Au nanoparticles. A flow will emerge from the focused laser spot on the window after the laser is turned on for a few to tens of minutes; the flow remains after the colloidal solution is completely replaced by pure water. Microscopically, this transformation is made possible by an underlying plasmonic nanoparticle-decorated cavity, which is self-fabricated on the glass by nanoparticle-assisted laser etching and exhibits size and shape uniquely tailored to the incident beam profile. Hydrophone signals indicate that the flow is driven via acoustic streaming by a long-lasting ultrasound wave that is resonantly generated by the laser and the cavity through the photoacoustic effect. The principle of this light-driven flow via ultrasound, that is, photoacoustic streaming by coupling photoacoustics to acoustic streaming, is general and can be applied to any liquid, opening up new research and applications in optofluidics as well as traditional photoacoustics and acoustic streaming. PMID:28959726

Laser streaming: Turning a laser beam into a flow of liquid.

PubMed

Wang, Yanan; Zhang, Qiuhui; Zhu, Zhuan; Lin, Feng; Deng, Jiangdong; Ku, Geng; Dong, Suchuan; Song, Shuo; Alam, Md Kamrul; Liu, Dong; Wang, Zhiming; Bao, Jiming

2017-09-01

Transforming a laser beam into a mass flow has been a challenge both scientifically and technologically. We report the discovery of a new optofluidic principle and demonstrate the generation of a steady-state water flow by a pulsed laser beam through a glass window. To generate a flow or stream in the same path as the refracted laser beam in pure water from an arbitrary spot on the window, we first fill a glass cuvette with an aqueous solution of Au nanoparticles. A flow will emerge from the focused laser spot on the window after the laser is turned on for a few to tens of minutes; the flow remains after the colloidal solution is completely replaced by pure water. Microscopically, this transformation is made possible by an underlying plasmonic nanoparticle-decorated cavity, which is self-fabricated on the glass by nanoparticle-assisted laser etching and exhibits size and shape uniquely tailored to the incident beam profile. Hydrophone signals indicate that the flow is driven via acoustic streaming by a long-lasting ultrasound wave that is resonantly generated by the laser and the cavity through the photoacoustic effect. The principle of this light-driven flow via ultrasound, that is, photoacoustic streaming by coupling photoacoustics to acoustic streaming, is general and can be applied to any liquid, opening up new research and applications in optofluidics as well as traditional photoacoustics and acoustic streaming.

Tracing Nitrogen Sources in Forested Catchments Under Varying Flow Conditions: Seasonal and Event Scale Patterns

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sebestyen, S. D.; Shanley, J. B.; Boyer, E. W.; Kendall, C.

2004-12-01

Our ability to assess how stream nutrient concentrations respond to biogeochemical transformations and stream flow dynamics is often limited by datasets that do not include all flow conditions that occur over event, monthly, seasonal, and yearly time scales. At the Sleepers River Research Watershed in northeastern Vermont, USA, nitrate, DOC (dissolved organic carbon), and major ion concentrations were measured on samples collected over a wide range of flow conditions from summer 2002 through summer 2004. Nutrient flushing occurred at the W-9 catchment and high-frequency sampling revealed critical insights into seasonal and event-scale controls on nutrient concentrations. In this seasonally snow-covered catchment, the earliest stage of snowmelt introduced nitrogen directly to the stream from the snowpack. As snowmelt progressed, the source of stream nitrate shifted to flushing of soil nitrate along shallow subsurface flow paths. In the growing season, nitrogen flushing to streams varied with antecedent moisture conditions. More nitrogen was available to flush to streams when antecedent moisture was lowest, and mobile nitrogen stores in the landscape regenerated under baseflow conditions on times scales as short as 7 days. Leaf fall was another critical time when coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes controlled nutrient fluxes. With the input of labile organic carbon from freshly decomposing leaves, nitrate concentrations declined sharply in response to in-stream immobilization or denitrification. These high-resolution hydrochemical data from multiple flow regimes are identifying "hot spots" and "hot moments" of biogeochemical and hydrological processes that control nutrient fluxes in streams.

Increasing synchrony of high temperature and low flow in western North American streams: double trouble for coldwater biota?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Arismendi, Ivan; Safeeq, Mohammad; Johnson, Sherri L.; Dunham, Jason B.; Haggerty, Roy

2013-01-01

Flow and temperature are strongly linked environmental factors driving ecosystem processes in streams. Stream temperature maxima (Tmax_w) and stream flow minima (Qmin) can create periods of stress for aquatic organisms. In mountainous areas, such as western North America, recent shifts toward an earlier spring peak flow and decreases in low flow during summer/fall have been reported. We hypothesized that an earlier peak flow could be shifting the timing of low flow and leading to a decrease in the interval between Tmax_w and Qmin. We also examined if years with extreme low Qmin were associated with years of extreme high Tmax_w. We tested these hypotheses using long32 term data from 22 minimally human-influenced streams for the period 1950-2010. We found trends toward a shorter time lag between Tmax_w and Qmin over time and a strong negative association between their magnitudes. Our findings show that aquatic biota may be increasingly experiencing narrower time windows to recover or adapt between these extreme events of low flow and high temperature. This study highlights the importance of evaluating multiple environmental drivers to better gauge the effects of the recent climate variability in freshwaters.

Relationship between coronal holes and high speed streams at L1: arrival times, durations, and intensities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Luo, B.; Bu, X.; Liu, S.; Gong, J.

2017-12-01

Coronal holes are sources of high-speed steams (HSS) of solar wind. When coronal holes appear at mid/low latitudes on the Sun, consequential HSSs may impact Earth and cause recurrent geospace environment disturbances, such as geomagnetic storms, relativistic electron enhancements at the geosynchronous orbit, and thermosphere density enhancements. Thus, it is of interests for space weather forecasters to predict when (arrival times), how long (time durations), and how severe (intensities) HSSs may impact Earth when they notice coronal holes on the sun and are anticipating their geoeffectiveness. In this study, relationship between coronal holes and high speed streams will be statistically investigated. Several coronal hole parameters, including passage times of solar central meridian, coronal hole longitudinal widths, intensities reflected by mean brightness, are derived using Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO)/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA) images for years 2011 to 2016. These parameters will be correlated with in-situ solar wind measurements measured at the L1 point by the ACE spacecraft, which can give some results that are useful for space weather forecaster in predicting the arrival times, durations, and intensities of coronal hole high-speed streams in about 3 days advance.

A Study of Subseasonal Predictability of the Atmospheric Circulation Low-frequency Modes based on SL-AV forecasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kruglova, Ekaterina; Kulikova, Irina; Khan, Valentina; Tischenko, Vladimir

2017-04-01

The subseasonal predictability of low-frequency modes and the atmospheric circulation regimes is investigated based on the using of outputs from global Semi-Lagrangian (SL-AV) model of the Hydrometcentre of Russia and Institute of Numerical Mathematics of Russian Academy of Science. Teleconnection indices (AO, WA, EA, NAO, EU, WP, PNA) are used as the quantitative characteristics of low-frequency variability to identify zonal and meridional flow regimes with focus on control distribution of high impact weather patterns in the Northern Eurasia. The predictability of weekly and monthly averaged indices is estimated by the methods of diagnostic verification of forecast and reanalysis data covering the hindcast period, and also with the use of the recommended WMO quantitative criteria. Characteristics of the low frequency variability have been discussed. Particularly, it is revealed that the meridional flow regimes are reproduced by SL-AV for summer season better comparing to winter period. It is shown that the model's deterministic forecast (ensemble mean) skill at week 1 (days 1-7) is noticeably better than that of climatic forecasts. The decrease of skill scores at week 2 (days 8-14) and week 3( days 15-21) is explained by deficiencies in the modeling system and inaccurate initial conditions. It was noticed the slightly improvement of the skill of model at week 4 (days 22-28), when the condition of atmosphere is more determined by the flow of energy from the outside. The reliability of forecasts of monthly (days 1-30) averaged indices is comparable to that at week 1 (days 1-7). Numerical experiments demonstrated that the forecast accuracy can be improved (thus the limit of practical predictability can be extended) through the using of probabilistic approach based on ensemble forecasts. It is shown that the quality of forecasts of the regimes of circulation like blocking is higher, than that of zonal flow.

Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sojda, Richard S.; Towler, Erin; Roberts, Mike; Rajagopalan, Balaji

2013-01-01

[1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

Impact of Extreme Climatic Events on the Temperature Regimes in Urban Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parchem, C.; Stewart, I. T.

2016-12-01

Urban streams provide important aquatic and riparian habitat close to population centers, as well as other ecosystem services such as flood protection, storm water drainage and recreational functions. Yet, they are already greatly impacted by human action through water management, channel modifications, destruction of riparian habitat, and pollution. This has potentially rendered them more vulnerable to the climatic extremes projected from climatic changes. From 2012 - 2016, California has experienced to date the most severe drought since the beginning of weather recordings. The combination of the resulting extremely low stream flows exacerbated by low precipitation, high evaporation rates, and greater human demand on water, with high temperature have increased the temperature regime in urban streams. However, the extent to which urban stream temperatures are impacted by extreme climatic conditions and what role stream morphology, stream flow characteristics, and riparian vegetation play, are not sufficiently understood. For this project, we monitored stream temperature, dissolved oxygen, and flow depth along a network of 18 sites in the Los Gatos Creek, Guadalupe River, and Coyote Creek, located in the urban regions of the southern San Francisco Bay Area. Monitoring sites were distributed from stream headwaters to flood plains and represented a variety of stream environments. We examined the variation in stream temperature and dissolved oxygen with extreme air temperature, extremely low flow conditions, riparian shading, and channel morphology. Our results show that during the recent drought, hourly stream temperatures rose up to 34°C during summer heat waves for sites in the lower stream reaches without riparian shading. By contrast, shaded sites with deeper flows, and minimally affected by water management were able to maintain lower temperatures by several degrees. Understanding the conditions driving the response of urban streams to climatic extremes can aid in the protection of aquatic ecosystems under climatic change.

Modeling sediment concentration of rill flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Daming; Gao, Peiling; Zhao, Yadong; Zhang, Yuhang; Liu, Xiaoyuan; Zhang, Qingwen

2018-06-01

Accurate estimation of sediment concentration is essential to establish physically-based erosion models. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the effects of flow discharge (Q), slope gradient (S), flow velocity (V), shear stress (τ), stream power (ω) and unit stream power (U) on sediment concentration. Laboratory experiments were conducted using a 10 × 0.1 m rill flume under four flow discharges (2, 4, 8 and 16 L min-1), and five slope gradients (5°, 10°, 15°, 20° and 25°). The results showed that the measured sediment concentration varied from 87.08 to 620.80 kg m-3 with a mean value of 343.13 kg m-3. Sediment concentration increased as a power function with flow discharge and slope gradient, with R2 = 0.975 and NSE = 0.945. The sediment concentration was more sensitive to slope gradient than to flow discharge. The sediment concentration was well predicted by unit stream power (R2 = 0.937, NSE = 0.865), whereas less satisfactorily by flow velocity (R2 = 0.470, NSE = 0.539) and stream power (R2 = 0.773, NSE = 0.732). In addition, using the equations to simulate the measured sediment concentration of other studies, the result further indicated that slope gradient, flow discharge and unit stream power were good predictors of sediment concentration. In general, slope gradient, flow discharge and unit stream power seem to be the preferred predictors for estimating sediment concentration.

Challenges in Understanding and Forecasting Winds in Complex Terrain.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mann, J.; Fernando, J.; Wilczak, J. M.

2017-12-01

An overview will be given of some of the challenges in understanding and forecasting winds in complex terrain. These challenges can occur for several different reasons including 1) gaps in our understanding of fundamental physical boundary layer processes occurring in complex terrain; 2) a lack of adequate parameterizations and/or numerical schemes in NWP models; and 3) inadequate observations for initialization of NWP model forecasts. Specific phenomena that will be covered include topographic wakes/vortices, cold pools, gap flows, and mountain-valley winds, with examples taken from several air quality and wind energy related field programs in California as well as from the recent Second Wind Forecast Improvement Program (WFIP2) field campaign in the Columbia River Gorge/Basin area of Washington and Oregon States. Recent parameterization improvements discussed will include those for boundary layer turbulence, including 3D turbulence schemes, and gravity wave drag. Observational requirements for improving wind forecasting in complex terrain will be discussed, especially in the context of forecasting pressure gradient driven gap flow events.

Optimized open-flow mixing: insights from microbubble streaming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rallabandi, Bhargav; Wang, Cheng; Guo, Lin; Hilgenfeldt, Sascha

2015-11-01

Microbubble streaming has been developed into a robust and powerful flow actuation technique in microfluidics. Here, we study it as a paradigmatic system for microfluidic mixing under a continuous throughput of fluid (open-flow mixing), providing a systematic optimization of the device parameters in this practically important situation. Focusing on two-dimensional advective stirring (neglecting diffusion), we show through numerical simulation and analytical theory that mixing in steady streaming vortices becomes ineffective beyond a characteristic time scale, necessitating the introduction of unsteadiness. By duty cycling the streaming, such unsteadiness is introduced in a controlled fashion, leading to exponential refinement of the advection structures. The rate of refinement is then optimized for particular parameters of the time modulation, i.e. a particular combination of times for which the streaming is turned ``on'' and ``off''. The optimized protocol can be understood theoretically using the properties of the streaming vortices and the throughput Poiseuille flow. We can thus infer simple design principles for practical open flow micromixing applications, consistent with experiments. Current Address: Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Princeton University.

ENSO and hydrologic extremes in the western United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cayan, D.R.; Redmond, K.T.; Riddle, L.G.

1999-01-01

Frequency distributions of daily precipitation in winter and daily stream flow from late winter to early summer, at several hundred sites in the western United States, exhibit strong and systematic responses to the two phases of ENSO. Most of the stream flows considered are driven by snowmelt. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) is used as the ENSO phase indicator. Both modest (median) and larger (90th percentile) events were considered. In years with negative SOI values (El Nino), days with high daily precipitation and stream flow are more frequent than average over the Southwest and less frequent over the Northwest. During years with positive SOI values (La Nina), a nearly opposite pattern is seen. A more pronounced increase is seen in the number of days exceeding climatological 90th percentile values than in the number exceeding climatological 50th percentile values, for both precipitation and stream flow. Stream flow responses to ENSO extremes are accentuated over precipitation responses. Evidence suggests that the mechanism for this amplification involves ENSO-phase differences in the persistence and duration of wet episodes, affecting the efficiency of the process by which precipitation is converted to runoff. The SOI leads the precipitation events by several months, and hydrologic lags (mostly through snowmelt) dealy the stream flow response by several more months. The combined 6-12 month predictive aspect of this relationship should be of significant benefit in responding to flood (or drought) risk and in improving overall water management in the western states.Frequency distributions of daily precipitation in winter and daily stream flow from late winter to early summer, at several hundred sites in the western United States, exhibit strong and systematic responses to the two phases of ENSO. Most of the stream flows considered are driven by snowmelt. The Southern Oscillation index (SOI) is used as the ENSO phase indicator. Both modest (median) and larger (90th percentile) events were considered. In years with negative SOI values (El Nino), days with high daily precipitation and stream flow are more frequent than average over the Southwest and less frequent over the Northwest. During years with positive SOI values (La Nina), a nearly opposite pattern is seen. A more pronounced increase is seen in the number of days exceeding climatological 90th percentile values than in the number exceeding climatological 50th percentile values, for both precipitation and stream flow. Stream flow responses to ENSO extremes are accentuated over precipitation responses. Evidence suggests that the mechanism for this amplification involves ENSO-phase differences in the persistence and duration of wet episodes, affecting the efficiency of the process by which precipitation is converted to runoff. The SOI leads the precipitation events by several months, and hydrologic lags (mostly through snowmelt) delay the stream flow response by several more months. The combined 6-12-month predictive aspect of this relationship should be of significant benefit in responding to flood (or drought) risk and in improving overall water management in the western states.

Difficulties in Forecasting Flow Paths During the 2014-2015 Lava Flow Crisis at Kīlauea Volcano (Hawaíi)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patrick, M. R.; Orr, T. R.; Trusdell, F.; Llewellin, E. W.; Kauahikaua, J. P.

2015-12-01

Kīlauea's East Rift Zone (ERZ) eruptive activity at Púu ´Ō´ō shifted to a new vent in June 2014, sparking a lava flow crisis that threatened critical infrastructure near the town of Pāhoa in east Hawaíi. The lava flow proved to be challenging to forecast because of the influence of ground cracks on flow direction, frequent fluctuations in lava supply, and the subtle interplay between ground slope and confining topography that prevented the flow from spreading laterally. After its onset, the "June 27th" flow, named informally for its start date, advanced northeast at up to several hundred m/day. The flow's path through heavy forest was forecast using steepest-descent paths derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). Flow path uncertainties were minimized using a multiple-run technique and built-in random DEM errors (modified from Favalli et al., 2005). In mid-August, the flow encountered and entered one of many deep, discontinuous ground cracks along Kīlauea's middle ERZ. The flow continued to advance out of sight in the crack, as inferred from a forward-progressing line of steam. A week later, lava spilled from the crack 1.3 km downslope, advancing along a different flow path than was forecast. By early September, the flow had entered and exited three more cracks sequentially, carrying the flow across slope, thus making flow path forecasts unreliable. Moreover, lava-occupied cracks dilated by up to 3 m. The lava accumulating in the ground cracks forced immense, but apparently mobile, blocks to shift. Thus, while an open crack was required to capture the lava, the lava was able to force its way beyond where the crack closed. In this way, the lava flow acted as an intruding dike. The flow eventually advanced beyond the area of cracks and onto a steepest-descent path that guided the flow toward the town of Pāhoa, where it destroyed one house, reached to within ~155 m of the main street in Pāhoa, and threatened the main highway and shopping center serving the east side of the Island of Hawaíi. The flow front stalled on March 13, 2015, owing to reservoir depressurization occurring at Kīlauea's summit. When the summit system recovered, activity withdrew to within ~9 km of the vent, ending the immediate threat to the Pāhoa area.

Estimating Locations of Perennial Streams in Idaho Using a Generalized Least-Squares Regression Model of 7-Day, 2-Year Low Flows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wood, Molly S.; Rea, Alan; Skinner, Kenneth D.; Hortness, Jon E.

2009-01-01

Many State and Federal agencies use information regarding the locations of streams having intermittent or perennial flow when making management and regulatory decisions. For example, the application of some Idaho water quality standards depends on whether streams are intermittent. Idaho Administrative Code defines an intermittent stream as one having a 7-day, 2-year low flow (7Q2) less than 0.1 ft3/s. However, there is a general recognition that the cartographic representation of perennial/intermittent status of streams on U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) topographic maps is not as accurate or consistent as desirable from one map to another, which makes broad management and regulatory assessments difficult and inconsistent. To help resolve this problem, the USGS has developed a methodology for predicting the locations of perennial streams based on regional generalized least-squares (GLS) regression equations for Idaho streams for the 7Q2 low-flow statistic. Using these regression equations, the 7Q2 streamflow may be estimated for naturally flowing streams in most areas in Idaho. The use of these equations in conjunction with a geographic information system (GIS) technique known as weighted flow accumulation allows for an automated and continuous estimation of 7Q2 streamflow at all points along stream reaches. The USGS has developed a GIS-based map of the locations of streams in Idaho with perennial flow based on a 7Q2 of 0.1 ft3/s and a transition zone of plus or minus 1 standard error. Idaho State cooperators plan to use this information to make regulatory and water-quality management decisions. Originally, 7Q2 equations were developed for eight regions of similar hydrologic characteristics in the study area, using long-term data from 234 streamflow-gaging stations. Equations in five of the regions were revised based on spatial patterns observed in the initial perennial streams map and unrealistic behavior of the equations in extrapolation. The standard errors of prediction for the final equations ranged from a minimum of +75.0 to -42.9 percent in the central part of the study area to a maximum of +277 to -73.5 percent in the southern part of the study area. The equations are applicable only to unregulated, naturally-flowing streams and may produce unreliable results outside the range of explanatory variables used for equation development. Extrapolation outside the range of available data was necessary, however, to predict perennial flow initiation points and transition zones along stream reaches. The map of perennial streams was evaluated by comparing predicted stream classifications with four independent datasets, including field observations by other government agencies. Overall, 81 percent of the comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Regions with the highest number of disagreements had a high percentage of mountainous and forested area with potential mountain front recharge zones, and regions with the highest agreements had a high percentage of low gradient, low elevation area. As a whole, the USGS model predicted a higher number of perennial streams than predictions made with the independent datasets. Some disagreements were due to poor site location coordinates, timing of the comparison site visits during unusually wet or dry years, discrepancies in classification criteria, and variable ground water contributions to flow in some areas. The Idaho Department of Environmental Quality Beneficial Use Reconnaissance Program (BURP) dataset is considered the most representative dataset for comparison because it covered a range of climate conditions and the number of sites visited were consistent from year to year during the study period. Eighty-five percent of BURP comparison data points agreed with the USGS perennial streams model. Although site-specific flow data may be needed to correctly classify streams in some areas, this information rarely is available and is not always practical to o

A streaming birefringence study of the flow at the junction of the aorta and the renal arteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rankin, G. W.; Sabbah, H. N.; Stein, P. D.

1989-11-01

Streaming birefringence with an organic dye (Milling Yellow) was used to investigate the flow near the junction of the renal arteries and the descending aorta in a model of human vessels. The dye concentration was adjusted to give fluid rheological properties, typical of blood. Steady and pulsatile flow were investigated at branch-to-trunk flow ratios of 0.050 0.350. The flow ratio range over which flow separation and simple secondary flows were identified during systole near the renal ostia are reported. Streaming birefringence has the advantage of allowing visualization of the entire flow field. Also, the fluid rather than suspended particles are observed. An important disadvantage, however, is that three-dimensional flows make interpretation difficult.

Hydrological classification of natural flow regimes to support environmental flow assessments in intensively regulated Mediterranean rivers, Segura River Basin (Spain).

PubMed

Belmar, Oscar; Velasco, Josefa; Martinez-Capel, Francisco

2011-05-01

Hydrological classification constitutes the first step of a new holistic framework for developing regional environmental flow criteria: the "Ecological Limits of Hydrologic Alteration (ELOHA)". The aim of this study was to develop a classification for 390 stream sections of the Segura River Basin based on 73 hydrological indices that characterize their natural flow regimes. The hydrological indices were calculated with 25 years of natural monthly flows (1980/81-2005/06) derived from a rainfall-runoff model developed by the Spanish Ministry of Environment and Public Works. These indices included, at a monthly or annual basis, measures of duration of droughts and central tendency and dispersion of flow magnitude (average, low and high flow conditions). Principal Component Analysis (PCA) indicated high redundancy among most hydrological indices, as well as two gradients: flow magnitude for mainstream rivers and temporal variability for tributary streams. A classification with eight flow-regime classes was chosen as the most easily interpretable in the Segura River Basin, which was supported by ANOSIM analyses. These classes can be simplified in 4 broader groups, with different seasonal discharge pattern: large rivers, perennial stable streams, perennial seasonal streams and intermittent and ephemeral streams. They showed a high degree of spatial cohesion, following a gradient associated with climatic aridity from NW to SE, and were well defined in terms of the fundamental variables in Mediterranean streams: magnitude and temporal variability of flows. Therefore, this classification is a fundamental tool to support water management and planning in the Segura River Basin. Future research will allow us to study the flow alteration-ecological response relationship for each river type, and set the basis to design scientifically credible environmental flows following the ELOHA framework.

The Imbalance between Nature and Management: Jurisdictional Evaluation of Headwaters in a Mountain Watershed (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caruso, B. S.

2013-12-01

In mountain ecoregions of the semi-arid western U.S., there is an imbalance between science and policy for jurisdictional determinations of aquatic resource as ';waters of the US' that can be protected under Clean Water Act Section 404 (permitting discharge of dredged and fill materials into wetlands and other waters). This leads to continued degradation of surface waters due to the imbalance of key biophysical and societal/regulatory components; the imbalance of water across these drier landscapes, and the imbalance between the critical ecological services provided by these headwater areas and the increasing impacts from urbanization and energy development in previously undeveloped areas. This study analysed headwater streams in a mountain watershed in southwestern Colorado and developed a classification scheme and hydrological connectivity index to demonstrate jurisdictional evaluation at a watershed scale. The National Hydrography Dataset and USGS program StreamStats were used with field observations to classify flow duration and stream order used for Level 1 and 2 classification. Kruskall Wallis tests and discriminant analysis were used to evaluate differences among Level 1 and 2 classes. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to develop Level 3 classes based on stream length, distance to the nearest downstream traditional navigable water (TNW), and the ratio of mean annual flow from the source stream to the TNW. Three primary metrics were used for HCI development: Avg Q/AQ, or the average streamflow metric as a proportion of the metric for the TNW, distance from the stream to the TNW, and slope to the TNW. Additional metrics were also analyzed including stream length, elevation, channel slope and type, and riparian zone types. Perennial waters constitute over a third of all streams (the highest order of which is 4th order), 64% of all reaches are intermittent or ephemeral, and almost half are ephemeral 1st order (E1). The perennial and intermittent streams are classified as jurisdictional relatively permanent waters (RPWs). All ephemeral reaches are non-RPWs and would require significant nexus evaluation to determine jurisdiction. The main stream contributes 20% of the average annual flow to the TNW, and 5% of the total to the river can come from E1 streams. There were significant differences in most metrics among Level 2 classes. There was a large range of HCI values, with 48% <1 for ephemeral streams that are not RPWs requiring a significant nexus evaluation to determine jurisdiction. Perennial streams, ponds and intermittent streams that are jurisdictional RPWs had HCI values >1. Mean values differed among stream duration and order classes. Many ephemeral streams may be non-jurisdictional and unprotected under Section 404 of the Clean Water Act. The flow index (QI) component constituted the greatest proportion of the HCI for perennial streams, was sensitive to the Q metrics used, and was greatest for high flows. Ephemeral streams are only connected to the TNW <3 months of the year, but their flow contribution is proportionally larger during high flows than other flow metrics. Streams in one ephemeral Level 3 class with HCI values from 0.75-0.94 are farthest from the TNW but contribute the greatest proportion of flow and may have significant nexus with the river.

Using All-Sky Imaging to Improve Telescope Scheduling (Abstract)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cole, G. M.

2017-12-01

(Abstract only) Automated scheduling makes it possible for a small telescope to observe a large number of targets in a single night. But when used in areas which have less-than-perfect sky conditions such automation can lead to large numbers of observations of clouds and haze. This paper describes the development of a "sky-aware" telescope automation system that integrates the data flow from an SBIG AllSky340c camera with an enhanced dispatch scheduler to make optimum use of the available observing conditions for two highly instrumented backyard telescopes. Using the minute-by-minute time series image stream and a self-maintained reference database, the software maintains a file of sky brightness, transparency, stability, and forecasted visibility at several hundred grid positions. The scheduling software uses this information in real time to exclude targets obscured by clouds and select the best observing task, taking into account the requirements and limits of each instrument.

OLYMPEX Data Workshop: GPM View

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petersen, W.

2017-01-01

OLYMPEX Primary Objectives: Datasets to enable: (1) Direct validation over complex terrain at multiple scales, liquid and frozen precip types, (a) Do we capture terrain and synoptic regime transitions, orographic enhancements/structure, full range of precipitation intensity (e.g., very light to heavy) and types, spatial variability? (b) How well can we estimate space/time-accumulated precipitation over terrain (liquid + frozen)? (2) Physical validation of algorithms in mid-latitude cold season frontal systems over ocean and complex terrain, (a) What are the column properties of frozen, melting, liquid hydrometeors-their relative contributions to estimated surface precipitation, transition under the influence of terrain gradients, and systematic variability as a function of synoptic regime? (3) Integrated hydrologic validation in complex terrain, (a) Can satellite estimates be combined with modeling over complex topography to drive improved products (assimilation, downscaling) [Level IV products] (b) What are capabilities and limitations for use of satellite-based precipitation estimates in stream/river flow forecasting?

Applications of remote sensing technology to U.S. Water resource management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weber, J. D.

1982-01-01

Applications of Landsat data to assessing the available water supply in the U.S. for agricultural puposes as a program of the NASA Office of Space Science and Applications are described. Snow melt runoff predictions are performed with multitemporal Landsat imagery to measure the extent of mountain snow packs in the Rockies in order to produce stream flow forecast models. The data is used for decisions of which crops to plant, based on irrigation water which will be accessible in eleven western U.S. states. Imagery has tracked the growth of irrigated lands watered from the Ogallala aquifer in the central U.S., and is providing a data base for calculating the aquifer depletion rates. Studies are preceeding in temporally mapping the kinds of vegetation growing in the Suwannee Sound in Florida to monitor the intrusion of salt water, which would reduce the River's usefulness for irrigation. Finally, capabilities of the Thematic Mapper are reviewed.

Dynamic behaviour of ice streams: the North East Greenland Ice Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bons, Paul D.; Jansen, Daniela; Schaufler, Svenja; de Riese, Tamara; Sachau, Till; Weikusat, Ilka

2017-04-01

The flow of ice towards the margins of ice sheets is far from homogeneous. Ice streams show much higher flow velocities than their surroundings and may extend, for example the North East Greenland Ice Stream (NEGIS), towards the centre of the sheet. The elevated flow velocity inside an ice stream causes marginal shearing and convergent flow, which in turn leads to folding of ice layers. Such folding was documented in the Petermann Glacier in northern Greenland (Bons et al., 2016). 3-dimensional structural modelling using radargrams shows that folding is more intense adjacent to NEGIS than inside it, despite the strong flow perturbation at NEGIS. Analysis of fold amplitude as a function of stratigraphic level indicates that folding adjacent to NEGIS ceased in the early Holocene, while it is currently active inside NEGIS. The presence of folds adjacent of NEGIS, but also at other sites far in the interior of the Greenland Ice Sheet with no direct connection to the present-day surface velocity field, indicates that ice flow is not only heterogeneous in space (as the present-day flow velocity field shows), but also in time. The observations suggest that ice streams are dynamic, ephemeral structures that emerge and die out, and may possibly shift during their existence, but leave traces within the stratigraphic layering of the ice. The dynamic nature of ice streams such as NEGIS speaks against deterministic models for their accelerated flow rates, such as bedrock topography or thermal perturbations at their base. Instead, we suggest that ice streams can also result from strain localisation induced inside the ice sheet by the complex coupling of rheology, anisotropy, grain-size changes and possibly shear heating. Bons, P.D., Jansen, D., Mundel, F., Bauer, C.C., Binder, T., Eisen, O., Jessell, M.W., Llorens, M.-G, Steinbach, F., Steinhage, D. & Weikusat, I. 2016. Converging flow and anisotropy cause large-scale folding in Greenland's ice sheet. Nature Communications 7:11427, DOI: 10.1038/ncomms11427.

Estimating the magnitude of peak flows for streams in Kentucky for selected recurrence intervals

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hodgkins, Glenn A.; Martin, Gary R.

2003-01-01

This report gives estimates of, and presents techniques for estimating, the magnitude of peak flows for streams in Kentucky for recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, 100, 200, and 500 years. A flowchart in this report guides the user to the appropriate estimates and (or) estimating techniques for a site on a specific stream. Estimates of peak flows are given for 222 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Kentucky. In the development of the peak-flow estimates at gaging stations, a new generalized skew coefficient was calculated for the State. This single statewide value of 0.011 (with a standard error of prediction of 0.520) is more appropriate for Kentucky than the national skew isoline map in Bulletin 17B of the Interagency Advisory Committee on Water Data. Regression equations are presented for estimating the peak flows on ungaged, unregulated streams in rural drainage basins. The equations were developed by use of generalized-least-squares regression procedures at 187 U.S. Geological Survey gaging stations in Kentucky and 51 stations in surrounding States. Kentucky was divided into seven flood regions. Total drainage area is used in the final regression equations as the sole explanatory variable, except in Regions 1 and 4 where main-channel slope also was used. The smallest average standard errors of prediction were in Region 3 (from -13.1 to +15.0 percent) and the largest average standard errors of prediction were in Region 5 (from -37.6 to +60.3 percent). One section of this report describes techniques for estimating peak flows for ungaged sites on gaged, unregulated streams in rural drainage basins. Another section references two previous U.S. Geological Survey reports for peak-flow estimates on ungaged, unregulated, urban streams. Estimating peak flows at ungaged sites on regulated streams is beyond the scope of this report, because peak flows on regulated streams are dependent upon variable human activities.

Scale-dependent genetic structure of the Idaho giant salamander (Dicamptodon aterrimus) in stream networks.

PubMed

Mullen, Lindy B; Arthur Woods, H; Schwartz, Michael K; Sepulveda, Adam J; Lowe, Winsor H

2010-03-01

The network architecture of streams and rivers constrains evolutionary, demographic and ecological processes of freshwater organisms. This consistent architecture also makes stream networks useful for testing general models of population genetic structure and the scaling of gene flow. We examined genetic structure and gene flow in the facultatively paedomorphic Idaho giant salamander, Dicamptodon aterrimus, in stream networks of Idaho and Montana, USA. We used microsatellite data to test population structure models by (i) examining hierarchical partitioning of genetic variation in stream networks; and (ii) testing for genetic isolation by distance along stream corridors vs. overland pathways. Replicated sampling of streams within catchments within three river basins revealed that hierarchical scale had strong effects on genetic structure and gene flow. amova identified significant structure at all hierarchical scales (among streams, among catchments, among basins), but divergence among catchments had the greatest structural influence. Isolation by distance was detected within catchments, and in-stream distance was a strong predictor of genetic divergence. Patterns of genetic divergence suggest that differentiation among streams within catchments was driven by limited migration, consistent with a stream hierarchy model of population structure. However, there was no evidence of migration among catchments within basins, or among basins, indicating that gene flow only counters the effects of genetic drift at smaller scales (within rather than among catchments). These results show the strong influence of stream networks on population structure and genetic divergence of a salamander, with contrasting effects at different hierarchical scales.

Providing peak river flow statistics and forecasting in the Niger River basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andersson, Jafet C. M.; Ali, Abdou; Arheimer, Berit; Gustafsson, David; Minoungou, Bernard

2017-08-01

Flooding is a growing concern in West Africa. Improved quantification of discharge extremes and associated uncertainties is needed to improve infrastructure design, and operational forecasting is needed to provide timely warnings. In this study, we use discharge observations, a hydrological model (Niger-HYPE) and extreme value analysis to estimate peak river flow statistics (e.g. the discharge magnitude with a 100-year return period) across the Niger River basin. To test the model's capacity of predicting peak flows, we compared 30-year maximum discharge and peak flow statistics derived from the model vs. derived from nine observation stations. The results indicate that the model simulates peak discharge reasonably well (on average + 20%). However, the peak flow statistics have a large uncertainty range, which ought to be considered in infrastructure design. We then applied the methodology to derive basin-wide maps of peak flow statistics and their associated uncertainty. The results indicate that the method is applicable across the hydrologically active part of the river basin, and that the uncertainty varies substantially depending on location. Subsequently, we used the most recent bias-corrected climate projections to analyze potential changes in peak flow statistics in a changed climate. The results are generally ambiguous, with consistent changes only in very few areas. To test the forecasting capacity, we ran Niger-HYPE with a combination of meteorological data sets for the 2008 high-flow season and compared with observations. The results indicate reasonable forecasting capacity (on average 17% deviation), but additional years should also be evaluated. We finish by presenting a strategy and pilot project which will develop an operational flood monitoring and forecasting system based in-situ data, earth observations, modelling, and extreme statistics. In this way we aim to build capacity to ultimately improve resilience toward floods, protecting lives and infrastructure in the region.

Hydraulic and Thermal Response to Intermittent Pumping in Unconfined Alluvial Aquifers along a Regulated Stream

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maharjan, Madan

Groundwater response to stream stage fluctuations was studied using a year-long time series of stream stage and well heads in Glen Dale and New Martinsville, WV. Stream stage fluctuations exerted primary control over groundwater levels, especially during high flows. The location and operation of river pools created by dams alter groundwater flow paths and velocities. Aquifers are more prone to surface water infiltration in the upper reaches of pools than in lower reaches. Aquifer diffusivity is heterogeneous within and between the two sites. Temperature fluctuations were observed for 2.5 years in 14 wells in three alluvial aquifers. Temperature signals have 2 components corresponding to pump-on and pump-off periods. Both components vary seasonality at different magnitudes. While pump-off temperatures fluctuated up to 3.8o C seasonally, short-term temperature shifts induced by turning the pump on were 0.2 to 2.5o C. Pumping-induced temperature shifts were highest in magnitude in summer and winter. Groundwater temperature lagged behind that of surface water by approximately six months. Pumping induced and seasonal temperature shifts were spatially and temporally complex but indicate stream exfiltration is a major driver for a number of these wells. Numerical simulation of aquifer response to pumping show different conditions before and after well-field development. During pre-development, the stream was losing at high flow and gaining at low flow. During post-development, however, the stream was losing at high flow and spatially variable at low flow. While bank storage gained only during high stage, stream exfiltration occurred year-round. Pumping induced stream exfiltration by creating an extensive cone of depression beneath the stream in both upstream and downstream directions. Spatially and temporally variable groundwater-surface water interaction next to a regulated stream were studied using analytical and numerical models, based on field observations. Seasonality plays an important role in these interactions, but human activity may also alter its intensity.

Evaluating NMME Seasonal Forecast Skill for use in NASA SERVIR Hub Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roberts, J. Brent; Roberts, Franklin R.

2013-01-01

The U.S. National Multi-Model Ensemble seasonal forecasting system is providing hindcast and real-time data streams to be used in assessing and improving seasonal predictive capacity. The coupled forecasts have numerous potential applications, both national and international in scope. The NASA / USAID SERVIR project, which leverages satellite and modeling-based resources for environmental decision making in developing nations, is focusing on the evaluation of NMME forecasts specifically for use in driving applications models in hub regions including East Africa, the Hindu Kush- Himalayan (HKH) region and Mesoamerica. A prerequisite for seasonal forecast use in application modeling (e.g. hydrology, agriculture) is bias correction and skill assessment. Efforts to address systematic biases and multi-model combination in support of NASA SERVIR impact modeling requirements will be highlighted. Specifically, quantilequantile mapping for bias correction has been implemented for all archived NMME hindcasts. Both deterministic and probabilistic skill estimates for raw, bias-corrected, and multi-model ensemble forecasts as a function of forecast lead will be presented for temperature and precipitation. Complementing this statistical assessment will be case studies of significant events, for example, the ability of the NMME forecasts suite to anticipate the 2010/2011 drought in the Horn of Africa and its relationship to evolving SST patterns.

Stream Tracker: Crowd sourcing and remote sensing to monitor stream flow intermittence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puntenney, K.; Kampf, S. K.; Newman, G.; Lefsky, M. A.; Weber, R.; Gerlich, J.

2017-12-01

Streams that do not flow continuously in time and space support diverse aquatic life and can be critical contributors to downstream water supply. However, these intermittent streams are rarely monitored and poorly mapped. Stream Tracker is a community powered stream monitoring project that pairs citizen contributed observations of streamflow presence or absence with a network of streamflow sensors and remotely sensed data from satellites to track when and where water is flowing in intermittent stream channels. Citizens can visit sites on roads and trails to track flow and contribute their observations to the project site hosted by CitSci.org. Data can be entered using either a mobile application with offline capabilities or an online data entry portal. The sensor network provides a consistent record of streamflow and flow presence/absence across a range of elevations and drainage areas. Capacitance, resistance, and laser sensors have been deployed to determine the most reliable, low cost sensor that could be mass distributed to track streamflow intermittence over a larger number of sites. Streamflow presence or absence observations from the citizen and sensor networks are then compared to satellite imagery to improve flow detection algorithms using remotely sensed data from Landsat. In the first two months of this project, 1,287 observations have been made at 241 sites by 24 project members across northern and western Colorado.

Stream bed temperature profiles as indicators of percolation characteristics beneath arroyos in the middle Rio Grande Basin, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Constantz, J.; Thomas, C.L.

1997-01-01

Stream bed temperature profiles were monitored continuously during water year 1990 and 1991 (WY90 and 91) in two New Mexico arroyos, similar in their meteorological features and dissimilar in their hydrological features. Stream bed temperature profiles between depths of 30 and 300 cm were examined to determine whether temporal changes in temperature profiles represent accurate indicators of the timing, depth and duration of percolation in each stream bed. These results were compared with stream flow, air temperature, and precipitation records for WY90 and 91, to evaluate the effect of changing surface conditions on temperature profiles. Temperature profiles indicate a persistently high thermal gradient with depth beneath Grantline Arroyo, except during a semi-annual thermal reversal in spring and autumn. This typifies the thermal response of dry sediments with low thermal conductivities. High thermal gradients were disrupted only during infrequent stream flows, followed by rapid re-establishment of high gradients. The stream bed temperature at 300 cm was unresponsive to individual precipitation or stream flow during WY90 and 91. This thermal pattern provides strong evidence that most seepage into Grantline Arroyo failed to percolate at a sufficient rate to reach 300 cm before being returned to the atmosphere. A distinctly different thermal pattern was recorded beneath Tijeras Arroyo. Low thermal gradients between 30 and 300 cm and large diurnal variations in temperature, suggest that stream flow created continuous, advection-dominated heat transport for over 300 days, annually. Beneath Tijeras Arroyo, low thermal gradients were interrupted only briefly during periodic, dry summer conditions. Comparisons of stream flow records for WY90 and 91 with stream bed temperature profiles indicate that independent analysis of thermal patterns provides accurate estimates of the timing, depth and duration of percolation beneath both arroyos. Stream flow loss estimates indicate that seepage rates were 15 times greater for Tijeras Arroyo than for Grantline Arroyo, which supports qualitative conclusions derived from analysis of stream bed temperature responses to surface conditions. ?? 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Low-flow characteristics for streams on the Islands of Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and Hawaiʻi, State of Hawaiʻi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cheng, Chui Ling

2016-08-03

Statistical models were developed to estimate natural streamflow under low-flow conditions for streams with existing streamflow data at measurement sites on the Islands of Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Maui, and Hawaiʻi. Streamflow statistics used to describe the low-flow characteristics are flow-duration discharges that are equaled or exceeded between 50 and 95 percent of the time during the 30-year base period 1984–2013. Record-augmentation techniques were applied to develop statistical models relating concurrent streamflow data at the measurement sites and long-term data from nearby continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations that were in operation during the base period and were selected as index stations. Existing data and subsequent low-flow analyses of the available data help to identify streams in under-represented geographic areas and hydrogeologic settings where additional data collection is suggested.Low-flow duration discharges were estimated for 107 measurement sites (including long-term and short-term continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations, and partial-record stations) and 27 index stations. The adequacy of statistical models was evaluated with correlation coefficients and modified Nash-Sutcliff coefficients of efficiency, and a majority of the low-flow duration-discharge estimates are satisfactory based on these regression statistics.Molokaʻi and Hawaiʻi have the fewest number of measurement sites (that are not located on ephemeral stream reaches) at which flow-duration discharges were estimated, which can be partially explained by the limited number of index stations available on these islands that could be used for record augmentation. At measurement sites on some tributary streams, low-flow duration discharges could not be estimated because no adequate correlations could be developed with the index stations. These measurement sites are located on streams where duration-discharge estimates are available at long-term stations at other locations on the main stream channel to provide at least some definition of low-flow characteristics on that stream. In terms of general natural streamflow data availability, data are scarce in the leeward areas for all five islands as many leeward streams are dry or have minimal flow. Other under-represented areas include central Oʻahu, central Maui, and southeastern Maui.

USGS tethered ACP platforms: New design means more safety and accuracy

USGS Publications Warehouse

Morlock, S.E.; Stewart, J.A.; Rehmel, M.S.

2004-01-01

The US Geological Survey has developed an innovative tethered platform that supports an Acoustic Current Profiler (ACP) in making stream-flow measurements (use of the term ACP in this article refers to a class of instruments and not a specific brand name or model). The tethered platform reduces the hazards involved in conventional methods of stream-flow measurement. The use of the platform reduces or eliminates time spent by personnel in streams and boats or on bridges and cableway and stream-flow measurement accuracy is increased.

Tree leaf control on low flow water quality in a small Virginia stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slack, K.V.; Feltz, H.R.

1968-01-01

Impaired water quality in a small stream was related to autumn leaf fall from riparian vegetation. Dissolved oxygen and pH decreased, and water color, specific conductance, iron, manganese, and bicarbonate values increased as the rate of leaf fall increased. Similar quality changes occurred in laboratory cultures of tree leaves in filtered stream water, but the five leaf species studied produced widely differing results. Stream quality improved rapidly following channel flushing by storm flow. Organic loading by tree litter can exert significant control on water composition, especially during low flow.

Aquatic insect emergence from headwater streams flowing through regeneration and mature forests in western Oregon

Treesearch

Robert Progar; Andrew R. Moldenke

2009-01-01

We examined the effect of canopy cover on adult aquatic insect emergence by collecting bi-weekly samples from twelve headwater stream reaches flowing either under a mature conifer canopy or streams flowing through ten-year-old regeneration in western Oregon from February to November 1997. Density and biomass generally followed a bimodal curve with peaks during early...

A simulation of streaming flows associated with acoustic levitators

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rednikov, A.; Riley, N.

2002-04-01

Steady-state acoustic streaming flow patterns have been observed by Trinh and Robey [Phys. Fluids 6, 3567 (1994)], during the operation of a variety of single axis ultrasonic levitators in a gaseous environment. Microstreaming around levitated samples is superimposed on the streaming flow which is observed in the levitator even in the absence of any particle therein. In this paper, by physical arguments, numerical and analytical simulations we provide entirely satisfactory interpretations of the observed flow patterns in both isothermal and nonisothermal situations.

Development of a stream-aquifer numerical flow model to assess river water management under water scarcity in a Mediterranean basin.

PubMed

Mas-Pla, Josep; Font, Eva; Astui, Oihane; Menció, Anna; Rodríguez-Florit, Agustí; Folch, Albert; Brusi, David; Pérez-Paricio, Alfredo

2012-12-01

Stream flow, as a part of a basin hydrological cycle, will be sensible to water scarcity as a result of climate change. Stream vulnerability should then be evaluated as a key component of the basin water budget. Numerical flow modeling has been applied to an alluvial formation in a small mountain basin to evaluate the stream-aquifer relationship under these future scenarios. The Arbúcies River basin (116 km(2)) is located in the Catalan Inner Basins (NE Spain) and its lower reach, which is related to an alluvial aquifer, usually becomes dry during the summer period. This study seeks to determine the origin of such discharge losses whether from natural stream leakage and/or induced capture due to groundwater withdrawal. Our goal is also investigating how discharge variations from the basin headwaters, representing potential effects of climate change, may affect stream flow, aquifer recharge, and finally environmental preservation and human supply. A numerical flow model of the alluvial aquifer, based on MODFLOW and especially in the STREAM routine, reproduced the flow system after the usual calibration. Results indicate that, in the average, stream flow provides more than 50% of the water inputs to the alluvial aquifer, being responsible for the amount of stored water resources and for satisfying groundwater exploitation for human needs. Detailed simulations using daily time-steps permit setting threshold values for the stream flow entering at the beginning of the studied area so surface discharge is maintained along the whole watercourse and ecological flow requirements are satisfied as well. The effects of predicted rainfall and temperature variations on the Arbúcies River alluvial aquifer water balance are also discussed from the outcomes of the simulations. Finally, model results indicate the relevance of headwater discharge management under future climate scenarios to preserve downstream hydrological processes. They also point out that small mountain basins could be self-sufficient units so long as the response of the main hydrological components to external forces that produce water scarcity, as climate change or human pressures, is appropriately considered in water resource planning. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion.

PubMed

Fu, Peihua; Zhu, Anding; Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities also represents a highly correlated analysis tool to evaluate the advertising value of TV series.

Modeling Periodic Impulsive Effects on Online TV Series Diffusion

PubMed Central

Fang, Qiwen; Wang, Xi

2016-01-01

Background Online broadcasting substantially affects the production, distribution, and profit of TV series. In addition, online word-of-mouth significantly affects the diffusion of TV series. Because on-demand streaming rates are the most important factor that influences the earnings of online video suppliers, streaming statistics and forecasting trends are valuable. In this paper, we investigate the effects of periodic impulsive stimulation and pre-launch promotion on on-demand streaming dynamics. We consider imbalanced audience feverish distribution using an impulsive susceptible-infected-removed(SIR)-like model. In addition, we perform a correlation analysis of online buzz volume based on Baidu Index data. Methods We propose a PI-SIR model to evolve audience dynamics and translate them into on-demand streaming fluctuations, which can be observed and comprehended by online video suppliers. Six South Korean TV series datasets are used to test the model. We develop a coarse-to-fine two-step fitting scheme to estimate the model parameters, first by fitting inter-period accumulation and then by fitting inner-period feverish distribution. Results We find that audience members display similar viewing habits. That is, they seek new episodes every update day but fade away. This outcome means that impulsive intensity plays a crucial role in on-demand streaming diffusion. In addition, the initial audience size and online buzz are significant factors. On-demand streaming fluctuation is highly correlated with online buzz fluctuation. Conclusion To stimulate audience attention and interpersonal diffusion, it is worthwhile to invest in promotion near update days. Strong pre-launch promotion is also a good marketing tool to improve overall performance. It is not advisable for online video providers to promote several popular TV series on the same update day. Inter-period accumulation is a feasible forecasting tool to predict the future trend of the on-demand streaming amount. The buzz in public social communities also represents a highly correlated analysis tool to evaluate the advertising value of TV series. PMID:27669520

Comparison of Conventional and ANN Models for River Flow Forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jain, A.; Ganti, R.

2011-12-01

Hydrological models are useful in many water resources applications such as flood control, irrigation and drainage, hydro power generation, water supply, erosion and sediment control, etc. Estimates of runoff are needed in many water resources planning, design development, operation and maintenance activities. River flow is generally estimated using time series or rainfall-runoff models. Recently, soft artificial intelligence tools such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have become popular for research purposes but have not been extensively adopted in operational hydrological forecasts. There is a strong need to develop ANN models based on real catchment data and compare them with the conventional models. In this paper, a comparative study has been carried out for river flow forecasting using the conventional and ANN models. Among the conventional models, multiple linear, and non linear regression, and time series models of auto regressive (AR) type have been developed. Feed forward neural network model structure trained using the back propagation algorithm, a gradient search method, was adopted. The daily river flow data derived from Godavari Basin @ Polavaram, Andhra Pradesh, India have been employed to develop all the models included here. Two inputs, flows at two past time steps, (Q(t-1) and Q(t-2)) were selected using partial auto correlation analysis for forecasting flow at time t, Q(t). A wide range of error statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of all the models developed in this study. It has been found that the regression and AR models performed comparably, and the ANN model performed the best amongst all the models investigated in this study. It is concluded that ANN model should be adopted in real catchments for hydrological modeling and forecasting.

The Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's current approach to forecasting lava flow hazards (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kauahikaua, J. P.

2013-12-01

Hawaiian Volcanoes are best known for their frequent basaltic eruptions, which typically start with fast-moving channelized `a`a flows fed by high eruptions rates. If the flows continue, they generally transition into pahoehoe flows, fed by lower eruption rates, after a few days to weeks. Kilauea Volcano's ongoing eruption illustrates this--since 1986, effusion at Kilauea has mostly produced pahoehoe. The current state of lava flow simulation is quite advanced, but the simplicity of the models mean that they are most appropriately used during the first, most vigorous, days to weeks of an eruption - during the effusion of `a`a flows. Colleagues at INGV in Catania have shown decisively that MAGFLOW simulations utilizing satellite-derived eruption rates can be effective at estimating hazards during the initial periods of an eruption crisis. However, the algorithms do not simulate the complexity of pahoehoe flows. Forecasts of lava flow hazards are the most common form of volcanic hazard assessments made in Hawai`i. Communications with emergency managers over the last decade have relied on simple steepest-descent line maps, coupled with empirical lava flow advance rate information, to portray the imminence of lava flow hazard to nearby communities. Lavasheds, calculated as watersheds, are used as a broader context for the future flow paths and to advise on the utility of diversion efforts, should they be contemplated. The key is to communicate the uncertainty of any approach used to formulate a forecast and, if the forecast uses simple tools, these communications can be fairly straightforward. The calculation of steepest-descent paths and lavasheds relies on the accuracy of the digital elevation model (DEM) used, so the choice of DEM is critical. In Hawai`i, the best choice is not the most recent but is a 1980s-vintage 10-m DEM--more recent LIDAR and satellite radar DEM are referenced to the ellipsoid and include vegetation effects. On low-slope terrain, steepest descent lines calculated on a geoid-based DEM may differ significantly from those calculated on an ellipsoid-based DEM. Good estimates of lava flow advance rates can be obtained from empirical compilations of historical advance rates of Hawaiian lava flows. In this way, rates appropriate for observed flow types (`a`a or pahoehoe, channelized or not) can be applied. Eruption rate is arguably the most important factor, while slope is also significant for low eruption rates. Eruption rate, however, remains the most difficult parameter to estimate during an active eruption. The simplicity of the HVO approach is its major benefit. How much better can lava-flow advance be forecast for all types of lava flows? Will the improvements outweigh the increased uncertainty propagated through the simulation calculations? HVO continues to improve and evaluate its lava flow forecasting tools to provide better hazard assessments to emergency personnel.

Leaf litter breakdown of native and exotic tree species in two Hawaiian streams that differ in flow

Treesearch

Megan Roberts; Ayron M. Strauch; Tracy Wiegner; Richard A. Mackenzie

2016-01-01

Riparian leaf litter is a major source of allochthonous organic material to temperate and tropical streams, promoting primary and secondary productivity in lotic and nearshore habitats. In tropical island streams, where native leaf-shredding macroinvertebrates are absent, physical fragmentation from stream flow is an important factor affecting leaf litter breakdown and...

Ensemble forecasting of short-term system scale irrigation demands using real-time flow data and numerical weather predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perera, Kushan C.; Western, Andrew W.; Robertson, David E.; George, Biju; Nawarathna, Bandara

2016-06-01

Irrigation demands fluctuate in response to weather variations and a range of irrigation management decisions, which creates challenges for water supply system operators. This paper develops a method for real-time ensemble forecasting of irrigation demand and applies it to irrigation command areas of various sizes for lead times of 1 to 5 days. The ensemble forecasts are based on a deterministic time series model coupled with ensemble representations of the various inputs to that model. Forecast inputs include past flow, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration. These inputs are variously derived from flow observations from a modernized irrigation delivery system; short-term weather forecasts derived from numerical weather prediction models and observed weather data available from automatic weather stations. The predictive performance for the ensemble spread of irrigation demand was quantified using rank histograms, the mean continuous rank probability score (CRPS), the mean CRPS reliability and the temporal mean of the ensemble root mean squared error (MRMSE). The mean forecast was evaluated using root mean squared error (RMSE), Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency (NSE) and bias. The NSE values for evaluation periods ranged between 0.96 (1 day lead time, whole study area) and 0.42 (5 days lead time, smallest command area). Rank histograms and comparison of MRMSE, mean CRPS, mean CRPS reliability and RMSE indicated that the ensemble spread is generally a reliable representation of the forecast uncertainty for short lead times but underestimates the uncertainty for long lead times.

Optimal hydrograph separation using a recursive digital filter constrained by chemical mass balance, with application to selected Chesapeake Bay watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Raffensperger, Jeff P.; Baker, Anna C.; Blomquist, Joel D.; Hopple, Jessica A.

2017-06-26

Quantitative estimates of base flow are necessary to address questions concerning the vulnerability and response of the Nation’s water supply to natural and human-induced change in environmental conditions. An objective of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Project is to determine how hydrologic systems are affected by watershed characteristics, including land use, land cover, water use, climate, and natural characteristics (geology, soil type, and topography). An important component of any hydrologic system is base flow, generally described as the part of streamflow that is sustained between precipitation events, fed to stream channels by delayed (usually subsurface) pathways, and more specifically as the volumetric discharge of water, estimated at a measurement site or gage at the watershed scale, which represents groundwater that discharges directly or indirectly to stream reaches and is then routed to the measurement point.Hydrograph separation using a recursive digital filter was applied to 225 sites in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. The recursive digital filter was chosen for the following reasons: it is based in part on the assumption that groundwater acts as a linear reservoir, and so has a physical basis; it has only two adjustable parameters (alpha, obtained directly from recession analysis, and beta, the maximum value of the base-flow index that can be modeled by the filter), which can be determined objectively and with the same physical basis of groundwater reservoir linearity, or that can be optimized by applying a chemical-mass-balance constraint. Base-flow estimates from the recursive digital filter were compared with those from five other hydrograph-separation methods with respect to two metrics: the long-term average fraction of streamflow that is base flow, or base-flow index, and the fraction of days where streamflow is entirely base flow. There was generally good correlation between the methods, with some biased slightly high and some biased slightly low compared to the recursive digital filter. There were notable differences between the days at base flow estimated by the different methods, with the recursive digital filter having a smaller range of values. This was attributed to how the different methods determine cessation of quickflow (the part of streamflow which is not base flow).For 109 Chesapeake Bay watershed sites with available specific conductance data, the parameters of the filter were optimized using a chemical-mass-balance constraint and two different models for the time-dependence of base-flow specific conductance. Sixty-seven models were deemed acceptable and the results compared well with non-optimized results. There are a number of limitations to the optimal hydrograph-separation approach resulting from the assumptions implicit in the conceptual model, the mathematical model, and the approach taken to impose chemical mass balance (including tracer choice). These limitations may be evidenced by poor model results; conversely, poor model fit may provide an indication that two-component separation does not adequately describe the hydrologic system’s runoff response.The results of this study may be used to address a number of questions regarding the role of groundwater in understanding past changes in stream-water quality and forecasting possible future changes, such as the timing and magnitude of land-use and management practice effects on stream and groundwater quality. Ongoing and future modeling efforts may benefit from the estimates of base flow as calibration targets or as a means to filter chemical data to model base-flow loads and trends. Ultimately, base-flow estimation might provide the basis for future work aimed at improving the ability to quantify groundwater discharge, not only at the scale of a gaged watershed, but at the scale of individual reaches as well.

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bent, Gardner C.; Steeves, Peter A.

2006-01-01

A revised logistic regression equation and an automated procedure were developed for mapping the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts. The equation provides city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection a method for assessing whether streams are intermittent or perennial at a specific site in Massachusetts by estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at that site. This information could assist the environmental agencies who administer the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Rivers Protection Act of 1996, which establishes a 200-foot-wide protected riverfront area extending from the mean annual high-water line along each side of a perennial stream, with exceptions for some urban areas. The equation was developed by relating the observed intermittent or perennial status of a stream site to selected basin characteristics of naturally flowing streams (defined as having no regulation by dams, surface-water withdrawals, ground-water withdrawals, diversion, wastewater discharge, and so forth) in Massachusetts. This revised equation differs from the equation developed in a previous U.S. Geological Survey study in that it is solely based on visual observations of the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites across Massachusetts and on the evaluation of several additional basin and land-use characteristics as potential explanatory variables in the logistic regression analysis. The revised equation estimated more accurately the intermittent or perennial status of the observed stream sites than the equation from the previous study. Stream sites used in the analysis were identified as intermittent or perennial based on visual observation during low-flow periods from late July through early September 2001. The database of intermittent and perennial streams included a total of 351 naturally flowing (no regulation) sites, of which 85 were observed to be intermittent and 266 perennial. Stream sites included in the database had drainage areas that ranged from 0.04 to 10.96 square miles. Of the 66 stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles, 2 sites were intermittent and 64 sites were perennial. Thus, stream sites with drainage areas greater than 2.00 square miles were assumed to flow perennially, and the database used to develop the logistic regression equation included only those stream sites with drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles. The database for the equation included 285 stream sites that had drainage areas less than 2.00 square miles, of which 83 sites were intermittent and 202 sites were perennial. Results of the logistic regression analysis indicate that the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site in Massachusetts can be estimated as a function of four explanatory variables: (1) drainage area (natural logarithm), (2) areal percentage of sand and gravel deposits, (3) areal percentage of forest land, and (4) region of the state (eastern region or western region). Although the equation provides an objective means of determining the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site, the reliability of the equation is constrained by the data used in its development. The equation is not recommended for (1) losing stream reaches or (2) streams whose ground-water contributing areas do not coincide with their surface-water drainage areas, such as many streams draining the Southeast Coastal Region-the southern part of the South Coastal Basin, the eastern part of the Buzzards Bay Basin, and the entire area of the Cape Cod and the Islands Basins. If the equation were used on a regulated stream site, the estimated intermittent or perennial status would reflect the natural flow conditions for that site. An automated mapping procedure was developed to determine the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites along reaches throughout a basin. The procedure delineates the drainage area boundaries, determines values for the four explanatory variables, and solves the equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at two locations on a headwater (first-order) stream reach-one near its confluence or end point and one near its headwaters or start point. The automated procedure then determines the intermittent or perennial status of the reach on the basis of the calculated probability values and a probability cutpoint (a stream is considered to flow perennially at a cutpoint of 0.56 or greater for this study) for the two locations or continues to loop upstream or downstream between locations less than and greater than the cutpoint of 0.56 to determine the transition point from an intermittent to a perennial stream. If the first-order stream reach is determined to be intermittent, the procedure moves to the next downstream reach and repeats the same process. The automated procedure then moves to the next first-order stream and repeats the process until the entire basin is mapped. A map of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in the Shawsheen River Basin is provided on a CD-ROM that accompanies this report. The CD-ROM also contains ArcReader 9.0, a freeware product, that allows a user to zoom in and out, set a scale, pan, turn on and off map layers (such as a USGS topographic map), and print a map of the stream site with a scale bar. Maps of the intermittent and perennial stream reaches in Massachusetts will provide city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection with an additional method for assessing the intermittent or perennial status of stream sites.

Stochastic ice stream dynamics

PubMed Central

Bertagni, Matteo Bernard; Ridolfi, Luca

2016-01-01

Ice streams are narrow corridors of fast-flowing ice that constitute the arterial drainage network of ice sheets. Therefore, changes in ice stream flow are key to understanding paleoclimate, sea level changes, and rapid disintegration of ice sheets during deglaciation. The dynamics of ice flow are tightly coupled to the climate system through atmospheric temperature and snow recharge, which are known exhibit stochastic variability. Here we focus on the interplay between stochastic climate forcing and ice stream temporal dynamics. Our work demonstrates that realistic climate fluctuations are able to (i) induce the coexistence of dynamic behaviors that would be incompatible in a purely deterministic system and (ii) drive ice stream flow away from the regime expected in a steady climate. We conclude that environmental noise appears to be crucial to interpreting the past behavior of ice sheets, as well as to predicting their future evolution. PMID:27457960

Multistream hydrodynamic modeling of interhemispheric plasma flow

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rasmussen, C. E.; Schunk, R. W.

1988-01-01

Interhemispheric plasma flow was simulated using one-stream and two-stream hydrodymic models in order to test the suggestion of Banks et al. (1971) and others that the collision of high-speed flows originating from the conjugate hemispheres will cause the formation of a pair of shocks. The single-fluid hydrodynamic equations were modified to include multiple ion streams, allowing for the possibility of counterstreaming flow. It was found that a counterstreaming of ion streams from conjugate hemispheres does occur during the early stages of the refilling of plamaspheric flux tubes, and that a pair of reverse shocks does form. These shocks form away from the equator, and their subsequent motion creates conditions similar to those predicted by the single-stream hydrodynamic models. The findings support the conclusion of earlier studies that the refilling of the plasmasphere occurs from the equatorial region downward.

Impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on ensemble flood forecasting over Lanjiang basin, Southeast China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Li; Xu, Yue-Ping

2017-04-01

Ensemble flood forecasting driven by numerical weather prediction products is becoming more commonly used in operational flood forecasting applications.In this study, a hydrological ensemble flood forecasting system based on Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and quantitative precipitation forecasts from TIGGE dataset is constructed for Lanjiang Basin, Southeast China. The impacts of calibration strategies and ensemble methods on the performance of the system are then evaluated.The hydrological model is optimized by parallel programmed ɛ-NSGAII multi-objective algorithm and two respectively parameterized models are determined to simulate daily flows and peak flows coupled with a modular approach.The results indicatethat the ɛ-NSGAII algorithm permits more efficient optimization and rational determination on parameter setting.It is demonstrated that the multimodel ensemble streamflow mean have better skills than the best singlemodel ensemble mean (ECMWF) and the multimodel ensembles weighted on members and skill scores outperform other multimodel ensembles. For typical flood event, it is proved that the flood can be predicted 3-4 days in advance, but the flows in rising limb can be captured with only 1-2 days ahead due to the flash feature. With respect to peak flows selected by Peaks Over Threshold approach, the ensemble means from either singlemodel or multimodels are generally underestimated as the extreme values are smoothed out by ensemble process.

Development of seasonal flow outlook model for Ganges-Brahmaputra Basins in Bangladesh

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hossain, Sazzad; Haque Khan, Raihanul; Gautum, Dilip Kumar; Karmaker, Ripon; Hossain, Amirul

2016-10-01

Bangladesh is crisscrossed by the branches and tributaries of three main river systems, the Ganges, Bramaputra and Meghna (GBM). The temporal variation of water availability of those rivers has an impact on the different water usages such as irrigation, urban water supply, hydropower generation, navigation etc. Thus, seasonal flow outlook can play important role in various aspects of water management. The Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC) in Bangladesh provides short term and medium term flood forecast, and there is a wide demand from end-users about seasonal flow outlook for agricultural purposes. The objective of this study is to develop a seasonal flow outlook model in Bangladesh based on rainfall forecast. It uses European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) seasonal precipitation, temperature forecast to simulate HYDROMAD hydrological model. Present study is limited for Ganges and Brahmaputra River Basins. ARIMA correction is applied to correct the model error. The performance of the model is evaluated using coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE). The model result shows good performance with R2 value of 0.78 and NSE of 0.61 for the Brahmaputra River Basin, and R2 value of 0.72 and NSE of 0.59 for the Ganges River Basin for the period of May to July 2015. The result of the study indicates strong potential to make seasonal outlook to be operationalized.

Dry season mean monthly flow and harmonic mean flow regression equations for selected ungaged basins in Arkansas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Breaker, Brian K.

2015-01-01

Equations for two regions were found to be statistically significant for developing regression equations for estimating harmonic mean flows at ungaged basins; thus, equations are applicable only to streams in those respective regions in Arkansas. Regression equations for dry season mean monthly flows are applicable only to streams located throughout Arkansas. All regression equations are applicable only to unaltered streams where flows were not significantly affected by regulation, diversion, or urbanization. The median number of years used for dry season mean monthly flow calculation was 43, and the median number of years used for harmonic mean flow calculations was 34 for region 1 and 43 for region 2.

Mid-latitude Plasma Irregularities During Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, N.; Loper, R. D.

2017-12-01

Geomagnetic storming impacts the ionosphere in different ways at different latitudes. In the mid latitudes, Sub-Auroral Polarization Streams (SAPS) may trigger a redistribution of plasma leading to the creation of ionospheric troughs, storm enhanced density plumes, and acceleration of sub-auroral ion drifts. Solar cycle data, real time space weather satellite data, and radar data will be analyzed to study mid-latitude plasma densities and characterize the plasma anomalies SAPS create in order to increase short-term mid-latitude space weather forecasting.

Concentration-Discharge Behavior of Contaminants in a Stream Impacted by Acid Mine Drainage

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shaw, M. E.; Klein, M.; Herndon, E.

2017-12-01

Acid mine drainage (AMD) has severely degraded streams throughout the Appalachian coal region of the United States. AMD occurs when pyrite contained in coal is exposed to water and air during mining activities and oxidized to release high concentrations of sulfate, metals, and acidity into water bodies. Little is known about the concentration-discharge (CQ) relationships of solutes in AMD-impacted streams due to the complicated nature of acid mine drainage systems. For example, streams may receive inputs from multiple sources that include runoff, constructed treatment systems, and abandoned mines that bypass these systems to continue to contaminate the streams. It is important to understand the CQ relationships of contaminants in AMD-impacted streams in order to elucidate contaminant sources and to predict effects on aquatic ecosystems. Here, we study the CQ behaviors of acid and metals in a contaminated watershed in northeastern Ohio where limestone channels have been installed to remediate water draining from a mine pool into the stream. Stream chemistry was measured in samples collected once per day or once per hour during storm events, and stream flow was measured continuously at the watershed outlet. Increases in stream velocity during storm events resulted in an increase in pH (from 3 to 6) that subsequently decreased back to 3 as flow decreased. Additionally, Fe and Mn concentrations in the stream were high during baseflow (7 and 15 mg/L, respectively) and decreased with increasing discharge during storm events. These results indicate that the treatment system is only effective at neutralizing stream acidity and removing metals when water flow through the limestone channel is continuous. We infer that the acidic and metal-rich baseflow derives from upwelling of contaminated groundwater or subsurface flow from a mine pool. Ongoing studies aim to isolate the source of this baseflow contamination and evaluate the geochemical transformations that occur as it flows into the stream.

A comparative study of several compressibility corrections to turbulence models applied to high-speed shear layers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Viegas, John R.; Rubesin, Morris W.

1991-01-01

Several recently published compressibility corrections to the standard k-epsilon turbulence model are used with the Navier-Stokes equations to compute the mixing region of a large variety of high speed flows. These corrections, specifically developed to address the weakness of higher order turbulence models to accurately predict the spread rate of compressible free shear flows, are applied to two stream flows of the same gas mixing under a large variety of free stream conditions. Results are presented for two types of flows: unconfined streams with either (1) matched total temperatures and static pressures, or (2) matched static temperatures and pressures, and a confined stream.

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ESA's Soil Moisture dnd Ocean Salinity Mission - Contributing to Water Resource Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mecklenburg, S.; Kerr, Y. H.

2015-12-01

The Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission, launched in November 2009, is the European Space Agency's (ESA) second Earth Explorer Opportunity mission. The scientific objectives of the SMOS mission directly respond to the need for global observations of soil moisture and ocean salinity, two key variables used in predictive hydrological, oceanographic and atmospheric models. SMOS observations also provide information on the characterisation of ice and snow covered surfaces and the sea ice effect on ocean-atmosphere heat fluxes and dynamics, which affects large-scale processes of the Earth's climate system. The focus of this paper will be on SMOS's contribution to support water resource management: SMOS surface soil moisture provides the input to derive root-zone soil moisture, which in turn provides the input for the drought index, an important monitoring prediction tool for plant available water. In addition to surface soil moisture, SMOS also provides observations on vegetation optical depth. Both parameters aid agricultural applications such as crop growth, yield forecasting and drought monitoring, and provide input for carbon and land surface modelling. SMOS data products are used in data assimilation and forecasting systems. Over land, assimilating SMOS derived information has shown to have a positive impact on applications such as NWP, stream flow forecasting and the analysis of net ecosystem exchange. Over ocean, both sea surface salinity and severe wind speed have the potential to increase the predictive skill on the seasonal and short- to medium-range forecast range. Operational users in particular in Numerical Weather Prediction and operational hydrology have put forward a requirement for soil moisture data to be available in near-real time (NRT). This has been addressed by developing a fast retrieval for a NRT level 2 soil moisture product based on Neural Networks, which will be available by autumn 2015. This paper will focus on presenting the above applications and used SMOS data products.

A hybrid least squares support vector machines and GMDH approach for river flow forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Samsudin, R.; Saad, P.; Shabri, A.

2010-06-01

This paper proposes a novel hybrid forecasting model, which combines the group method of data handling (GMDH) and the least squares support vector machine (LSSVM), known as GLSSVM. The GMDH is used to determine the useful input variables for LSSVM model and the LSSVM model which works as time series forecasting. In this study the application of GLSSVM for monthly river flow forecasting of Selangor and Bernam River are investigated. The results of the proposed GLSSVM approach are compared with the conventional artificial neural network (ANN) models, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, GMDH and LSSVM models using the long term observations of monthly river flow discharge. The standard statistical, the root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R) are employed to evaluate the performance of various models developed. Experiment result indicates that the hybrid model was powerful tools to model discharge time series and can be applied successfully in complex hydrological modeling.

Analysis/forecast experiments with a flow-dependent correlation function using FGGE data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baker, W. E.; Bloom, S. C.; Carus, H.; Nestler, M. S.

1986-01-01

The use of a flow-dependent correlation function to improve the accuracy of an optimum interpolation (OI) scheme is examined. The development of the correlation function for the OI analysis scheme used for numerical weather prediction is described. The scheme uses a multivariate surface analysis over the oceans to model the pressure-wind error cross-correlation and it has the ability to use an error correlation function that is flow- and geographically-dependent. A series of four-day data assimilation experiments, conducted from January 5-9, 1979, were used to investigate the effect of the different features of the OI scheme (error correlation) on forecast skill for the barotropic lows and highs. The skill of the OI was compared with that of a successive correlation method (SCM) of analysis. It is observed that the largest difference in the correlation statistics occurred in barotropic and baroclinic lows and highs. The comparison reveals that the OI forecasts were more accurate than the SCM forecasts.

Base flow of streams in the outcrop area of southeastern sand aquifer, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stricker, Virginia

1983-01-01

The base flow component of streamflow was separated from hydrographs for unregulated streams in the Cretaceous and Tertiary clastic outcrop area of South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi. The base flow values are used in estimating recharge to the sand aquifer. Relations developed between mean annual base flow and stream discharge at the 60- and 65-percent streamflow duration point can be used to approximate mean annual base flow in lieu of hydrograph separation methods for base flows above 10 cu ft/s. Base flow recession curves were used to derive estimates of hydraulic diffusivity of the aquifer which was converted to transmissivity using estimated specific yield. These base-flow-derived transmissivities are in general agreement with transmissivities derived from well data. The shape of flow duration curves of streams is affected by the lithology of the Coastal Plain sediments. Steep flow duration curves appear to be associated with basins underlain by clay or chalk where a low percentage of the discharge is base flow while flatter curves appear to be associated with basins underlain by sand and gravel where a high percentage of the discharge is base flow. (USGS)

Stream hydrologic response to increased urbanization in Mid-Atlantic watersheds

EPA Science Inventory

Urban development alters stream hydrology; resulting in increases in the Richard-Baker Flashiness index, peak flow, and the number of flood events for many watersheds throughout the U.S. To better understand and predict the relationship between stream flow patterns and watershed ...

Spatial and Temporal Patterns In Ecohydrological Separation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jarvis, S. K.; Barnard, H. R.; Singha, K.; Harmon, R. E.; Szutu, D.

2017-12-01

The model of ecohydrological separation suggests that trees source water from a different subsurface pool than what is contributing to stream flow during dry periods, however diel fluctuations in stream flow and transpiration are tightly coupled. To better understand the mechanism of this coupling, this study examines spatiotemporal patterns in water isotopic relationships between tree, soil, and stream water. Preliminary analysis of data collected in 2015 show a trend in δ18O enrichment in xylem water, suggesting an increased reliance on enriched soil water not flowing to the stream as the growing season progresses, while xylem samples from 2016, a particularly wet year, do not have this trend. Variations in these temporal trends are explored with regard to distance from stream, aspect of hillslope, position in the watershed, size of the tree, and soil depth. Additionally, a near-stream site is examined at high resolution using water isotope data, sap flow, and electrical resistivity surveying to examine soil moisture and water use patterns across the riparian-hillslope transition.

Variations in land use and nonpoint-source contamination on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation, west-central North Dakota, 1990-93

USGS Publications Warehouse

Macek-Rowland, Kathleen; Lent, Robert M.

1996-01-01

The effects of land-use activities on the water quality of five streams on the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation were evaluated. The five basinsevaluated were East Fork Shell Creek, Deepwater Creek, Bear Den Creek, Moccasin Creek, and Squaw Creek. East Fork Shell Creek and DeepwaterCreek Basins are located east of Lake Sakakawea and Bear Den Creek, Moccasin Creek, and Squaw Creek Basins are located west of the lake. Land-use data for the five selected basins on and adjacent to the Fort Berthold Indian Reservation were obtained for 1990-92. Discharge measurements were made and water-quality samples were collected at stations and sites on each of the five streams during October 1991 through September 1993. Analysis of land-use data indicated that prairie was the largest land-use category in the study area. More prairie acreage was found in the basins located west of Lake Sakakawea than in the basins located east of the lake. Wheat was the predominant crop in the study area. More wheat acreage was found in the basins located east of Lake Sakakawea than in the basins located west of the lake. Discharge data for the five selected streams indicated that all of thestreams were ephemeral and had many days of no flow during the study period. High flows were usually the result of spring runoff or intense storms over the basins. East Fork Shell Creek and Deepwater Creek with larger basins and flatter stream slopes had high flows characterized by rapidly rising flows and gradually receding flows. In contrast, Bear DenCreek, Moccasin Creek, and Squaw Creek with smaller basins and steeper stream slopes had high flows characterized by rapidly rising flows and receding flows of shorter duration. Analysis of water-quality samples indicated concentrations of nitrogen, phosphorus, and total organic carbon varied throughout the study area. Nitrogen concentrations were larger in the streams located east of LakeSakakawea than in the streams located west of the lake. The largest nitrogen concentrations in all of the streams occurred during the nongrowing periods.Phosphorus (orthophosphate and total phosphorus)concentrations were larger in the streams located east of Lake Sakakawea than in the streams located west of the lake. The larger orthophosphateconcentrations in the eastern streams may be indicative of insecticide application in the eastern streams' basins. Total organic carbon concentrations were fairly consistent in all five streams. Water-quality samples were analyzed for the pesticides atrazine, carbofuran, cyanazine, and 2,4-D by using immunoassay testing. Pesticide concentrations above the minimum reporting levels were more prevalent insamples from streams located east of Lake Sakakawea than in the streams located west of the lake. The eastern streams drain areas where herbicides were applied to crops. Fecal-bacteria concentrations were larger in the streams located west of Lake Sakakawea, where prairie is more dominant, than in the streams located east of the lake. The larger concentrations and loads were associated with intense storm events and the presence of livestock.

New Jersey StreamStats: A web application for streamflow statistics and basin characteristics

USGS Publications Warehouse

Watson, Kara M.; Janowicz, Jon A.

2017-08-02

StreamStats is an interactive, map-based web application from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that allows users to easily obtain streamflow statistics and watershed characteristics for both gaged and ungaged sites on streams throughout New Jersey. Users can determine flood magnitude and frequency, monthly flow-duration, monthly low-flow frequency statistics, and watershed characteristics for ungaged sites by selecting a point along a stream, or they can obtain this information for streamgages by selecting a streamgage location on the map. StreamStats provides several additional tools useful for water-resources planning and management, as well as for engineering purposes. StreamStats is available for most states and some river basins through a single web portal.Streamflow statistics for water resources professionals include the 1-percent annual chance flood flow (100-year peak flow) used to define flood plain areas and the monthly 7-day, 10-year low flow (M7D10Y) used in water supply management and studies of recreation, wildlife conservation, and wastewater dilution. Additionally, watershed or basin characteristics, including drainage area, percent area forested, and average percent of impervious areas, are commonly used in land-use planning and environmental assessments. These characteristics are easily derived through StreamStats.

Simulation of groundwater flow and streamflow depletion in the Branch Brook, Merriland River, and parts of the Mousam River watersheds in southern Maine

USGS Publications Warehouse

Nielsen, Martha G.; Locke, Daniel B.

2015-01-01

The study evaluated two different methods of calculating in-stream flow requirements for Branch Brook and the Merriland River—a set of statewide equations used to calculate monthly median flows and the MOVE.1 record-extension technique used on site-specific streamflow measurements. The August median in-stream flow requirement in the Merriland River was calculated as 7.18 ft3/s using the statewide equations but was 3.07 ft3/s using the MOVE.1 analysis. In Branch Brook, the August median in-stream flow requirements were calculated as 20.3 ft3/s using the statewide equations and 11.8 ft3/s using the MOVE.1 analysis. In each case, using site-specific data yields an estimate of in-stream flow that is much lower than an estimate the statewide equations provide.

Coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes controlling variability of nitrogen species in streamflow during autumn in an upland forest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sebestyen, Stephen D.; Shanley, James B.; Boyer, Elizabeth W.; Kendall, Carol; Doctor, Daniel H.

2014-01-01

Autumn is a season of dynamic change in forest streams of the northeastern United States due to effects of leaf fall on both hydrology and biogeochemistry. Few studies have explored how interactions of biogeochemical transformations, various nitrogen sources, and catchment flow paths affect stream nitrogen variation during autumn. To provide more information on this critical period, we studied (1) the timing, duration, and magnitude of changes to stream nitrate, dissolved organic nitrogen (DON), and ammonium concentrations; (2) changes in nitrate sources and cycling; and (3) source areas of the landscape that most influence stream nitrogen. We collected samples at higher temporal resolution for a longer duration than typical studies of stream nitrogen during autumn. This sampling scheme encompassed the patterns and extremes that occurred during base flow and stormflow events of autumn. Base flow nitrate concentrations decreased by an order of magnitude from 5.4 to 0.7 µmol L−1 during the week when most leaves fell from deciduous trees. Changes to rates of biogeochemical transformations during autumn base flow explained the low nitrate concentrations; in-stream transformations retained up to 72% of the nitrate that entered a stream reach. A decrease of in-stream nitrification coupled with heterotrophic nitrate cycling were primary factors in the seasonal nitrate decline. The period of low nitrate concentrations ended with a storm event in which stream nitrate concentrations increased by 25-fold. In the ensuing weeks, peak stormflow nitrate concentrations progressively decreased over closely spaced, yet similarly sized events. Most stormflow nitrate originated from nitrification in near-stream areas with occasional, large inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate, which has rarely been reported for nonsnowmelt events. A maximum input of 33% unprocessed atmospheric nitrate to the stream occurred during one event. Large inputs of unprocessed atmospheric nitrate show direct and rapid effects on forest streams that may be widespread, although undocumented, throughout nitrogen-polluted temperate forests. In contrast to a week-long nitrate decline during peak autumn litterfall, base flow DON concentrations increased after leaf fall and remained high for 2 months. Dissolved organic nitrogen was hydrologically flushed to the stream from riparian soils during stormflow. In contrast to distinct seasonal changes in base flow nitrate and DON concentrations, ammonium concentrations were typically at or below the detection limit, similar to the rest of the year. Our findings reveal couplings among catchment flow paths, nutrient sources, and transformations that control seasonal extremes of stream nitrogen in forested landscapes.

Predicting nitrate discharge dynamics in mesoscale catchments using the lumped StreamGEM model and Bayesian parameter inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Woodward, Simon James Roy; Wöhling, Thomas; Rode, Michael; Stenger, Roland

2017-09-01

The common practice of infrequent (e.g., monthly) stream water quality sampling for state of the environment monitoring may, when combined with high resolution stream flow data, provide sufficient information to accurately characterise the dominant nutrient transfer pathways and predict annual catchment yields. In the proposed approach, we use the spatially lumped catchment model StreamGEM to predict daily stream flow and nitrate concentration (mg L-1 NO3-N) in four contrasting mesoscale headwater catchments based on four years of daily rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, and stream flow measurements, and monthly or daily nitrate concentrations. Posterior model parameter distributions were estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling code DREAMZS and a log-likelihood function assuming heteroscedastic, t-distributed residuals. Despite high uncertainty in some model parameters, the flow and nitrate calibration data was well reproduced across all catchments (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency against Log transformed data, NSL, in the range 0.62-0.83 for daily flow and 0.17-0.88 for nitrate concentration). The slight increase in the size of the residuals for a separate validation period was considered acceptable (NSL in the range 0.60-0.89 for daily flow and 0.10-0.74 for nitrate concentration, excluding one data set with limited validation data). Proportions of flow and nitrate discharge attributed to near-surface, fast seasonal groundwater and slow deeper groundwater were consistent with expectations based on catchment geology. The results for the Weida Stream in Thuringia, Germany, using monthly as opposed to daily nitrate data were, for all intents and purposes, identical, suggesting that four years of monthly nitrate sampling provides sufficient information for calibration of the StreamGEM model and prediction of catchment dynamics. This study highlights the remarkable effectiveness of process based, spatially lumped modelling with commonly available monthly stream sample data, to elucidate high resolution catchment function, when appropriate calibration methods are used that correctly handle the inherent uncertainties.

Urban Stormwater Runoff: A New Class of Environmental Flow Problem

PubMed Central

Walsh, Christopher J.; Fletcher, Tim D.; Burns, Matthew J.

2012-01-01

Environmental flow assessment frameworks have begun to consider changes to flow regimes resulting from land-use change. Urban stormwater runoff, which degrades streams through altered volume, pattern and quality of flow, presents a problem that challenges dominant approaches to stormwater and water resource management, and to environmental flow assessment. We used evidence of ecological response to different stormwater drainage systems to develop methods for input to environmental flow assessment. We identified the nature of hydrologic change resulting from conventional urban stormwater runoff, and the mechanisms by which such hydrologic change is prevented in streams where ecological condition has been protected. We also quantified the increase in total volume resulting from urban stormwater runoff, by comparing annual streamflow volumes from undeveloped catchments with the volumes that would run off impervious surfaces under the same rainfall regimes. In catchments with as little as 5–10% total imperviousness, conventional stormwater drainage, associated with poor in-stream ecological condition, reduces contributions to baseflows and increases the frequency and magnitude of storm flows, but in similarly impervious catchments in which streams retain good ecological condition, informal drainage to forested hillslopes, without a direct piped discharge to the stream, results in little such hydrologic change. In urbanized catchments, dispersed urban stormwater retention measures can potentially protect urban stream ecosystems by mimicking the hydrologic effects of informal drainage, if sufficient water is harvested and kept out of the stream, and if discharged water is treated to a suitable quality. Urban stormwater is a new class of environmental flow problem: one that requires reduction of a large excess volume of water to maintain riverine ecological integrity. It is the best type of problem, because solving it provides an opportunity to solve other problems such as the provision of water for human use. PMID:23029257

Application guide for AFINCH (Analysis of Flows in Networks of Channels) described by NHDPlus

USGS Publications Warehouse

Holtschlag, David J.

2009-01-01

AFINCH (Analysis of Flows in Networks of CHannels) is a computer application that can be used to generate a time series of monthly flows at stream segments (flowlines) and water yields for catchments defined in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlus) value-added attribute system. AFINCH provides a basis for integrating monthly flow data from streamgages, water-use data, monthly climatic data, and land-cover characteristics to estimate natural monthly water yields from catchments by user-defined regression equations. Images of monthly water yields for active streamgages are generated in AFINCH and provide a basis for detecting anomalies in water yields, which may be associated with undocumented flow diversions or augmentations. Water yields are multiplied by the drainage areas of the corresponding catchments to estimate monthly flows. Flows from catchments are accumulated downstream through the streamflow network described by the stream segments. For stream segments where streamgages are active, ratios of measured to accumulated flows are computed. These ratios are applied to upstream water yields to proportionally adjust estimated flows to match measured flows. Flow is conserved through the NHDPlus network. A time series of monthly flows can be generated for stream segments that average about 1-mile long, or monthly water yields from catchments that average about 1 square mile. Estimated monthly flows can be displayed within AFINCH, examined for nonstationarity, and tested for monotonic trends. Monthly flows also can be used to estimate flow-duration characteristics at stream segments. AFINCH generates output files of monthly flows and water yields that are compatible with ArcMap, a geographical information system analysis and display environment. Chloropleth maps of monthly water yield and flow can be generated and analyzed within ArcMap by joining NHDPlus data structures with AFINCH output. Matlab code for the AFINCH application is presented.

No Snow No Flow: How Montane Stream Networks Respond to Drought

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grant, G.; Nolin, A. W.; Selker, J. S.; Lewis, S.; Hempel, L. A.; Jefferson, A.; Walter, C.; Roques, C.

2015-12-01

Hydrologic extremes, such as drought, offer an exceptional opportunity to explore how runoff generation mechanisms and stream networks respond to changing precipitation regimes. The winter of 2014-2015 was the warmest on record in western Oregon, US, with record low snowpacks, and was followed by an anomalously warm, dry spring, resulting in historically low streamflows. But a year like 2015 is more than an outlier meteorological year. It provides a unique opportunity to test fundamental hypotheses for how montane hydrologic systems will respond to anticipated changes in amount and timing of recharge. In particular, the volcanic Cascade Mountains represent a "landscape laboratory" comprised of two distinct runoff regimes: the surface-flow dominated Western Cascade watersheds, with flashy streamflow regimes, rapid baseflow recession, and very low summer flows; and (b) the spring-fed High Cascade watersheds, with a slow-responding streamflow regime, and a long and sustained baseflow recession that maintains late summer streamflow through deep-groundwater contributions to high volume, coldwater springs. We hypothesize that stream network response to the extremely low snowpack and recharge varies sharply in these two regions. In surface flow dominated streams, the location of channel heads can migrate downstream, contracting the network longitudinally; wetted channel width and depth contract laterally as summer recession proceeds and flows diminish. In contrast, in spring-fed streams, channel heads "jump" to the next downstream spring when upper basin spring flow diminishes to zero. Downstream of flowing springs, wetted channel width and depth contract laterally as flows recede. To test these hypotheses, we conducted a field campaign to measure changing discharge, hydraulic geometry, and channel head location in both types of watersheds throughout the summer and early fall. Multiple cross-section sites were established on 6 streams representing both flow regime types on either side of the Cascade crest. We also took Isotopic water samples to determine recharge elevations of receding streams. Taken together these measurements reveal the processes by which drainage networks contract as flows diminish - a fundamental property of montane stream systems both now and in the future.

CURRENT FLOW DATA FOR SELECTED USGS STREAM MONITORING STATIONS

EPA Science Inventory

This data set contains recent and historical stream flow data for USGS stations. Flow data (cubic feet per second) are available for the most recent 5-6 day period and are compared with long-term average values. Flow data were collected approximately hourly. Flood stage and the m...

CURRENT FLOW DATA FOR SELECTED USGS STREAM MONITORING STATIONS IN WASHINGTON STATE

EPA Science Inventory

This data set contains recent stream flow data for USGS stations in Washington State. Flow data (cubic feet per second) are available for the most recent 5-6 day period and are compared with long-term average values. Flow data were collected approximately hourly. Flood stage and ...

Channel water balance and exchange with subsurface flow along a mountain headwater stream in Montana, United States

Treesearch

R.A. Payn; M.N. Gooseff; B.L. McGlynn; K.E. Bencala; S.M. Wondzell

2009-01-01

Channel water balances of contiguous reaches along streams represent a poorly understood scale of stream-subsurface interaction. We measured reach water balances along a headwater stream in Montana, United States, during summer base flow recessions. Reach water balances were estimated from series of tracer tests in 13 consecutive reaches delineated evenly along a 2.6-...

Perennial flow through convergent hillslopes explains chemodynamic solute behavior in a shale headwater catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herndon, E.; Steinhoefel, G.; Dere, A. L. D.; Sullivan, P. L.

2017-12-01

Streams experience changing hydrologic connectivity to heterogeneous water sources under different flow regimes. It remains unclear how seasonal flow paths link these different sources and regulate concentration-discharge behavior. Previous research at the Susquehanna Shale Hills Critical Zone Observatory (SSHCZO) in central Pennsylvania, USA identified chemostatic solutes (e.g., K, Mg, Na, Cl) whose concentrations varied little across a wide range of discharge values and chemodynamic solutes (e.g., Fe and Mn) whose concentrations decreased sharply with increasing stream discharge. To elucidate inputs to the stream when concentrations of chemodynamic solutes were high, we investigated stream water and shallow groundwater (< 4 m) chemistry at the SSHCZO in early autumn when discharge was negligible. The stream consisted of isolated puddles that were chemically variable along the length of the channel but similar to underlying shallow groundwater. Chemodynamic solute concentrations in the stream and groundwater were high in the upper catchment but decreased by an order of magnitude towards the outlet. In contrast, chemostatic solute concentrations varied little. Groundwater was minimally connected to the stream in an area of upwelling near the stream headwaters; however, the water table remained over a meter below the stream bed along the rest of the channel. We conclude that well water sampled from the upper catchment is young, shallow interflow that upwells to generate metal-rich stream headwaters during the dry season. High concentrations of chemodynamic solutes measured during low discharge occur when metal-rich headwaters are flushed to the catchment outlet during periodic rain events. Interflow during the dry season originates from water that infiltrates through organic-rich swales; thus, metals in the stream at low flow are ultimately derived from convergent hillslopes where biological processes have concentrated chemodynamic elements. We infer that chemodynamic solutes are diluted at high discharge due to increased flow through planar hillslopes and inputs from regional groundwater that rises to enter the stream. This study highlights how spatially heterogeneous biogeochemistry and seasonally variable flow paths regulate concentration-discharge behavior within catchments.

Hydroecological Connections: Hyporheic Zone Weathering of Silicate Minerals Controls Diatom Biodiversity in Microbial Mats in Glacial Meltwater Streams of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McKnight, D. M.; Dyson, I.; Esposito, R. M.; Gooseff, M. N.; Lyons, W. B.; Welch, K. A.

2015-12-01

The McMurdo Dry Valleys of Antarctica is comprised of alpine and terminal glaciers, large expanses of patterned ground, and ice-covered lakes in the valley floors, which are linked by glacial meltwater streams that flow during the austral summer. As part of the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long-Term Ecological research project, we have observed stream ecosystem response to a sustained 18 year cool period with low flows, which has been recently interrupted by three "flood events" during sunny, warm summers. Many of these streams contain thriving microbial mats comprised of cyanobacteria and endemic diatoms, the most diverse group of eukaryotic organisms in the valleys. Of the 45 diatom taxa, some common taxa are heavily silicified, Hantzschia amphioxys f. muelleri, while others are only lightly silicified. By comparing diatom communities in streams which flow every summer with those in streams that only flow during flood events, we found that hydrologic flow regime acts as a strong environmental filter on diatom community composition. Following the first flood event in 2001/02, mat biomass was two-fold lower due to scouring and recovered over several years, with lesser declines following the subsequent floods. In the longer streams, the diatom community composition remained stable through the flood events, whereas in two of the shorter streams, Green and Bowles Creeks, the diatom community shifted after the first flood event to a greater abundance of lightly silicified taxa. Water quality monitoring and reactive transport modeling have shown that rapid weathering of silicate minerals in the hyporheic zone accounts for the downstream increases in Si concentration which are observed in the longer streams. One mechanism driving this greater abundance of lightly silicified diatoms in shorter streams could be the greater dilution of the Si supply from hyporheic weathering in shorter streams under high flows. Given that the stream diatom community is well preserved in the 40,000-year sediment record from the receiving lake, greater understanding of hydrologic and biogeochemical controls on diatom community composition provides insight into the evolution of the lakes and geologic history of the region.

Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Eng, Kenny; Wolock, David M.; Dettinger, Mike

2015-01-01

There is a great deal of interest in the literature on streamflow changes caused by climate change because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Most previous studies have primarily focused on perennial streams, and there have been only a few studies examining the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objectives in this study were to (1) identify regions of similar zero-flow behavior, and (2) evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the United States. This study was carried out at 265 intermittent streams by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with climate (magnitudes, durations and intensity), and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results identified five distinct seasonality patterns in the zero-flow events. In addition, strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical changes in climate were found. The decadal analysis suggested no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics. The lack of trends or changes in seasonality is likely due to unchanged long-term patterns in precipitation over the time period examined.

HYDRAULIC ANALYSIS OF BASE-FLOW AND BANK STORAGE IN ALLUVIAL STREAMS

EPA Science Inventory

This paper presents analytical solutions, which describe the effect of time-variable net recharge (net accretion to water table) and bank storage in alluvial aquifers on the sustenance of stream flows during storm and inter-storm events. The solutions relate the stream discharge,...

The Importance of Capturing Topographic Features for Modeling Groundwater Flow and Transport in Mountainous Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, C.; Gomez-Velez, J. D.; Wilson, J. L.

2017-12-01

Groundwater plays a key role in runoff generation and stream water chemistry from reach to watershed scales. The spatial distribution of ridges and streams can influence the spatial patterns of groundwater recharge and drainage, specially in mountainous terrains where these features are more prominent. However, typical modeling efforts simplify or ignore some of these features due to computational limitations without a systematic investigation of the implications for flow and transport within the watershed. In this study, we investigate the effect of capturing key topographic features on modeled groundwater flow and transport characteristics in a mountainous watershed. We build model scenarios of different topographic complexity levels (TCLs) to capture different levels of representation of streams and ridges in the model. Modeled baseflow and groundwater mean residence time (MRT) are used to quantify the differences among TCLs. Our results show that capturing the streams and ridges has a significant influence on simulated groundwater flow and transport patterns. Topographic complexity controls the proportion of baseflow generated from local, intermediate, and regional flow paths, thus influencing the amount and MRT of basefow flowing into streams of different Horton-Strahler orders. We further simulate the concentration of solute exported into streams from subsurface chemical weathering. The concentration of chemical weathering products in streams is less sensitive to model TCL due to the thermodynamic constraint on the equilibrium concentration of the chemical weathering. We also tested the influence of geology on the effect of TCL. The effect of TCL is consistent under different geological conditions; however, it is enhanced in models with low hydraulic conductivity because more of the flow is forced into shallow and local flow paths. All of these changes can affect our ability to interpret environmental tracer data and predict bio- and geo-chemical evolution of stream water in mountainous watersheds.

Coupling Radar Rainfall to Hydrological Models for Water Abstraction Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Asfaw, Alemayehu; Shucksmith, James; Smith, Andrea; MacDonald, Ken

2015-04-01

The impacts of climate change and growing water use are likely to put considerable pressure on water resources and the environment. In the UK, a reform to surface water abstraction policy has recently been proposed which aims to increase the efficiency of using available water resources whilst minimising impacts on the aquatic environment. Key aspects to this reform include the consideration of dynamic rather than static abstraction licensing as well as introducing water trading concepts. Dynamic licensing will permit varying levels of abstraction dependent on environmental conditions (i.e. river flow and quality). The practical implementation of an effective dynamic abstraction strategy requires suitable flow forecasting techniques to inform abstraction asset management. Potentially the predicted availability of water resources within a catchment can be coupled to predicted demand and current storage to inform a cost effective water resource management strategy which minimises environmental impacts. The aim of this work is to use a historical analysis of UK case study catchment to compare potential water resource availability using modelled dynamic abstraction scenario informed by a flow forecasting model, against observed abstraction under a conventional abstraction regime. The work also demonstrates the impacts of modelling uncertainties on the accuracy of predicted water availability over range of forecast lead times. The study utilised a conceptual rainfall-runoff model PDM - Probability-Distributed Model developed by Centre for Ecology & Hydrology - set up in the Dove River catchment (UK) using 1km2 resolution radar rainfall as inputs and 15 min resolution gauged flow data for calibration and validation. Data assimilation procedures are implemented to improve flow predictions using observed flow data. Uncertainties in the radar rainfall data used in the model are quantified using artificial statistical error model described by Gaussian distribution and propagated through the model to assess its influence on the forecasted flow uncertainty. Furthermore, the effects of uncertainties at different forecast lead times on potential abstraction strategies are assessed. The results show that over a 10 year period, an average of approximately 70 ML/d of potential water is missed in the study catchment under a convention abstraction regime. This indicates a considerable potential for the use of flow forecasting models to effectively implement advanced abstraction management and more efficiently utilize available water resources in the study catchment.

Flow effects on benthic stream invertebrates and ecological processes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koprivsek, Maja; Brilly, Mitja

2010-05-01

Flow is the main abiotic factor in the streams. Flow affects the organisms in many direct and indirect ways. The organisms are directly affected by various hydrodynamic forces and mass transfer processes like drag forces, drift, shear stress, food and gases supply and washing metabolites away. Indirect effects on the organisms are determining and distribution of the particle size and structure of the substrate and determining the morphology of riverbeds. Flow does not affect only on individual organism, but also on many ecological effects. To expose just the most important: dispersal of the organisms, habitat use, resource acquisition, competition and predator-prey interactions. Stream invertebrates are adapted to the various flow conditions in many kinds of way. Some of them are avoiding the high flow with living in a hyporeic zone, while the others are adapted to flow with physical adaptations (the way of feeding, respiration, osmoregulation and resistance to draught), morphological adaptations (dorsoventrally flattened shape of organism, streamlined shape of organism, heterogeneous suckers, silk, claws, swimming hair, bristles and ballast gravel) or with behaviour. As the flow characteristics in a particular stream vary over a broad range of space and time scales, it is necessary to measure accurately the velocity in places where the organisms are present to determine the actual impact of flow on aquatic organisms. By measuring the mean flow at individual vertical in a single cross-section, we cannot get any information about the velocity situation close to the bottom of the riverbed where the stream invertebrates are living. Just measuring the velocity near the bottom is a major problem, as technologies for measuring the velocity and flow of natural watercourses is not adapted to measure so close to the bottom. New researches in the last two decades has shown that the thickness of laminar border layer of stones in the stream is only a few 100 micrometers, what is not enough to make a shelter for stream invertebrates. It serves as a shelter only for microorganisms, but the stream invertebrates have to avoid the swift flow or adapt to flow with adaptations described above. To understand what conditions are subject to aquatic organisms and how to adapt, it is essential. Both, knowledge of fluid dynamics in natural watercourses and ecology are needed to understand to what conditions the stream invertebrates are exposed and how they cope with them. Some investigations of near bed flow will be performed on the Glinšica stream. The acoustic Doppler velocimeter SonTek will be adapted to measure so close to the bed as possible. It is expected we should be able to measure the velocities just 0,5 cm above the bed surface. We intend to measure the velocities on a natural and on a regulated reach and then compare the results.

Peak-flow characteristics of Virginia streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Austin, Samuel H.; Krstolic, Jennifer L.; Wiegand, Ute

2011-01-01

Peak-flow annual exceedance probabilities, also called probability-percent chance flow estimates, and regional regression equations are provided describing the peak-flow characteristics of Virginia streams. Statistical methods are used to evaluate peak-flow data. Analysis of Virginia peak-flow data collected from 1895 through 2007 is summarized. Methods are provided for estimating unregulated peak flow of gaged and ungaged streams. Station peak-flow characteristics identified by fitting the logarithms of annual peak flows to a Log Pearson Type III frequency distribution yield annual exceedance probabilities of 0.5, 0.4292, 0.2, 0.1, 0.04, 0.02, 0.01, 0.005, and 0.002 for 476 streamgaging stations. Stream basin characteristics computed using spatial data and a geographic information system are used as explanatory variables in regional regression model equations for six physiographic regions to estimate regional annual exceedance probabilities at gaged and ungaged sites. Weighted peak-flow values that combine annual exceedance probabilities computed from gaging station data and from regional regression equations provide improved peak-flow estimates. Text, figures, and lists are provided summarizing selected peak-flow sites, delineated physiographic regions, peak-flow estimates, basin characteristics, regional regression model equations, error estimates, definitions, data sources, and candidate regression model equations. This study supersedes previous studies of peak flows in Virginia.

Aerosol mobility size spectrometer

DOEpatents

Wang, Jian; Kulkarni, Pramod

2007-11-20

A device for measuring aerosol size distribution within a sample containing aerosol particles. The device generally includes a spectrometer housing defining an interior chamber and a camera for recording aerosol size streams exiting the chamber. The housing includes an inlet for introducing a flow medium into the chamber in a flow direction, an aerosol injection port adjacent the inlet for introducing a charged aerosol sample into the chamber, a separation section for applying an electric field to the aerosol sample across the flow direction and an outlet opposite the inlet. In the separation section, the aerosol sample becomes entrained in the flow medium and the aerosol particles within the aerosol sample are separated by size into a plurality of aerosol flow streams under the influence of the electric field. The camera is disposed adjacent the housing outlet for optically detecting a relative position of at least one aerosol flow stream exiting the outlet and for optically detecting the number of aerosol particles within the at least one aerosol flow stream.

Probabilistic postprocessing models for flow forecasts for a system of catchments and several lead times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Engeland, Kolbjorn; Steinsland, Ingelin

2014-05-01

This study introduces a methodology for the construction of probabilistic inflow forecasts for multiple catchments and lead times, and investigates criterions for evaluation of multi-variate forecasts. A post-processing approach is used, and a Gaussian model is applied for transformed variables. The post processing model has two main components, the mean model and the dependency model. The mean model is used to estimate the marginal distributions for forecasted inflow for each catchment and lead time, whereas the dependency models was used to estimate the full multivariate distribution of forecasts, i.e. co-variances between catchments and lead times. In operational situations, it is a straightforward task to use the models to sample inflow ensembles which inherit the dependencies between catchments and lead times. The methodology was tested and demonstrated in the river systems linked to the Ulla-Førre hydropower complex in southern Norway, where simultaneous probabilistic forecasts for five catchments and ten lead times were constructed. The methodology exhibits sufficient flexibility to utilize deterministic flow forecasts from a numerical hydrological model as well as statistical forecasts such as persistent forecasts and sliding window climatology forecasts. It also deals with variation in the relative weights of these forecasts with both catchment and lead time. When evaluating predictive performance in original space using cross validation, the case study found that it is important to include the persistent forecast for the initial lead times and the hydrological forecast for medium-term lead times. Sliding window climatology forecasts become more important for the latest lead times. Furthermore, operationally important features in this case study such as heteroscedasticity, lead time varying between lead time dependency and lead time varying between catchment dependency are captured. Two criterions were used for evaluating the added value of the dependency model. The first one was the Energy score (ES) that is a multi-dimensional generalization of continuous rank probability score (CRPS). ES was calculated for all lead-times and catchments together, for each catchment across all lead times and for each lead time across all catchments. The second criterion was to use CRPS for forecasted inflows accumulated over several lead times and catchments. The results showed that ES was not very sensitive to correct covariance structure, whereas CRPS for accumulated flows where more suitable for evaluating the dependency model. This indicates that it is more appropriate to evaluate relevant univariate variables that depends on the dependency structure then to evaluate the multivariate forecast directly.

Quantifying Uncertainty in Flood Inundation Mapping Using Streamflow Ensembles and Multiple Hydraulic Modeling Techniques

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hosseiny, S. M. H.; Zarzar, C.; Gomez, M.; Siddique, R.; Smith, V.; Mejia, A.; Demir, I.

2016-12-01

The National Water Model (NWM) provides a platform for operationalize nationwide flood inundation forecasting and mapping. The ability to model flood inundation on a national scale will provide invaluable information to decision makers and local emergency officials. Often, forecast products use deterministic model output to provide a visual representation of a single inundation scenario, which is subject to uncertainty from various sources. While this provides a straightforward representation of the potential inundation, the inherent uncertainty associated with the model output should be considered to optimize this tool for decision making support. The goal of this study is to produce ensembles of future flood inundation conditions (i.e. extent, depth, and velocity) to spatially quantify and visually assess uncertainties associated with the predicted flood inundation maps. The setting for this study is located in a highly urbanized watershed along the Darby Creek in Pennsylvania. A forecasting framework coupling the NWM with multiple hydraulic models was developed to produce a suite ensembles of future flood inundation predictions. Time lagged ensembles from the NWM short range forecasts were used to account for uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecasts. The forecasts from the NWM were input to iRIC and HEC-RAS two-dimensional software packages, from which water extent, depth, and flow velocity were output. Quantifying the agreement between output ensembles for each forecast grid provided the uncertainty metrics for predicted flood water inundation extent, depth, and flow velocity. For visualization, a series of flood maps that display flood extent, water depth, and flow velocity along with the underlying uncertainty associated with each of the forecasted variables were produced. The results from this study demonstrate the potential to incorporate and visualize model uncertainties in flood inundation maps in order to identify the high flood risk zones.

Impact of transient stream flow on water exchange and reactions in the hyporheic zone of an in-stream gravel bar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trauth, Nico; Schmidt, Christian; Fleckenstein, Jan H.

2015-04-01

Groundwater-surface water exchange is an important process that can facilitate the degradation of critical substances like nitrogen-species and contaminants, supporting a healthy status of the aquatic ecosystem. In our study, we simulate water exchange, solute transport and reactions within a natural in-stream gravel bar using a coupled surface and subsurface numerical model. Stream water flow is simulated by computational fluid dynamics software that provides hydraulic head distributions at the streambed, which are used as an upper boundary condition for a groundwater model. In the groundwater model water exchange, solute transport, aerobic respiration and denitrification in the subsurface are simulated. Ambient groundwater flow is introduced by lateral upstream and downstream hydraulic head boundaries that generate neutral, losing or gaining stream conditions. Stream water transports dissolved oxygen, organic carbon (as the dominant electron donor) and nitrate into the subsurface, whereas an additional nitrate source exists in the ambient groundwater. Scenarios of stream flow events varying in duration and stream stage are simulated and compared with steady state scenarios with respect to water fluxes, residence times and the solute turn-over rates. Results show, that water exchange and solute turn-over rates highly depend on the interplay between event characteristics and ambient groundwater levels. For scenarios, where the stream flow event shifts the hydraulic system to a net-neutral hydraulic gradient between the average stream stage and the ambient groundwater level (minimal exchange between ground- and surface water), solute consumption is higher, compared to the steady losing or gaining case. In contrast, events that induce strong losing conditions lead to a lower potential of solute consumption.

Method to support Total Maximum Daily Load development using hydrologic alteration as a surrogate to address aquatic life impairment in New Jersey streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kennen, Jonathan G.; Riskin, Melissa L.; Reilly, Pamela A.; Colarullo, Susan J.

2013-01-01

More than 300 ambient monitoring sites in New Jersey have been identified by the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP) in its integrated water-quality monitoring and assessment report (that is, the 305(b) Report on general water quality and 303(d) List of waters that do not support their designated uses) as being impaired with respect to aquatic life; however, no unambiguous stressors (for example, nutrients or bacteria) have been identified. Because of the indeterminate nature of the broad range of possible impairments, surrogate measures that more holistically encapsulate the full suite of potential environmental stressors need to be developed. Streamflow alteration resulting from anthropogenic changes in the landscape is one such surrogate. For example, increases in impervious surface cover (ISC) commonly cause increases in surface runoff, which can result in “flashy” hydrology and other changes in the stream corridor that are associated with streamflow alteration. The NJDEP has indicated that methodologies to support a hydrologically based Total Maximum Daily Load (hydro-TMDL) need to be developed in order to identify hydrologic targets that represent a minimal percent deviation from a baseline condition (“minimally altered”) as a surrogate measure to meet criteria in support of designated uses. The primary objective of this study was to develop an applicable hydro-TMDL approach to address aquatic-life impairments associated with hydrologic alteration for New Jersey streams. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the NJDEP, identified 51 non- to moderately impaired gaged streamflow sites in the Raritan River Basin for evaluation. Quantile regression (QR) analysis was used to compare flow and precipitation records and identify baseline hydrographs at 37 of these sites. At sites without an appropriately long period of record (POR) or where a baseline hydrograph could not be identified with QR, a rainfall-runoff model was used to develop simulated baseline hydrographs. The hydro-TMDL approach provided an opportunity to evaluate proportional differences in flow attributes between observed and baseline hydrographs and to develop complementary flow-ecology response relations at a subset of Raritan River Basin sites where available flow and ecological information overlapped. The New Jersey Stream Classification Tool (NJSCT) was used to determine the stream class of all 51 study sites by using either an observed or a simulated baseline hydrograph. Two New Jersey stream classes (A and C) were evaluated to help characterize the unique hydrology of the Raritan River Basin. In general, class C streams (1.99–40.7 square miles) had smaller drainage areas than class A streams (0.7–785 square miles). Many of the non-impaired and moderately impaired class A and C streams in the Raritan River Basin were found to have significant hydrologic alteration as indicated by numerous flow values that fell outside the established 25th-to-75th- and the more conservative 40th-to-60th-percentile boundaries. However, percent deviations for the class C streams (defined as moderately stable streams with moderately high base-flow contributions) were, in general, much larger than those for the class A streams (defined as semiflashy streams characterized by moderately low base flow). The greater deviations for class C streams in the hydro-TMDL assessments likely resulted from comparisons that were based solely on simulated baseline hydrographs, which were developed without considering any anthropogenic influences in the basin. In contrast, comparisons for many of the class A streams were made by using an observed baseline, which already includes an implicit level of ISC and other human influences on the landscape. By using the hydro-TMDL approach, numerous flow deviations were identified that were indicative of streams that are highly regulated by reservoirs or dams, streams that are affected by increasing amounts of surface runoff resulting from ISC, and streams that are affected by water abstraction (that is, groundwater or surface-water withdrawals used for agricultural and human supply). Eight of the reservoir- and (or) dam-affected sites showed flow deviations that are indicative of flow-managed systems. For example, indices that account for the timing and magnitude of high and low flows were often found to fall outside the 25th-to-75th-percentile range. In general, at regulated class C streams, annual summer low flows are arriving later and tend to be lower, and high flows are arriving earlier with higher magnitudes of longer duration. At class A streams, high and low flows are arriving later with an overall increase in discharge with respect to the prereservoir baseline conditions. The drainage basins of eight of the study sites had large values of ISC (>10 percent), most likely as a result of expanding urban development. In general, the magnitude and frequency of high flows at class A and C sites with high ISC are increasing and were commonly found to fall outside the 25th-to-75th-percentile range. Additionally, magnitudes of low flows are becoming lower and, although the timing of high flows was highly variable, low-flow events appeared to be arriving earlier than would be expected under normal low-flow conditions. Three of the study sites appeared to be affected by hydrologic changes associated with water abstraction. At these sites, the timing of flows appeared to be altered. For example, low flows tended to arrive earlier and high flows arrived later at two of the three sites. Additionally, the magnitude and duration of low flows were commonly less than the 25th-percentile value and the duration of high flows appeared to increase. A reduced set of hydrologic and ecological variables was used to develop univariate and multivariate flow-ecology response models for the aquatic-invertebrate assemblage. Many hydrologic variables accounting for the duration, magnitude, frequency, and timing of flows were significantly correlated with ecological response. Multiple linear regression (MLR) models were developed to provide a more holistic evaluation of the combined effects of hydrologic alteration and to identify models with two or three hydrologic variables that account for a significant proportion of the variability in invertebrate-assemblage condition as represented by assemblage metric scores. MLR models, derived on the basis of hydrologic attributes, accounted for 35 to 75 percent of the variability in assemblage condition. The hydro-TMDL method developed herein for non- to moderately impaired Raritan River Basin streams utilizes a “surrogate” approach in place of the traditional “pollutant of concern” approach commonly used for TMDL development. Managers can use the results obtained by using the hydro-TMDL method to offset the effects of impervious-surface runoff and altered streamflow and to implement measures designed to achieve the necessary load reductions for the “pollutant of concern” (that is, percentage deviations of stream-class-specific flow-index values outside the established 25th-to-75th-percentile range). In this case, such deviations could represent all or a subset of the altered flow indices that prevent the stream from meeting designated aquatic-life criteria. This hydro-TMDL uses a reference, or attainment stream approach for developing the TMDL endpoint. That is, either observed or simulated baseline hydrographs were selected as appropriate reference conditions on the basis of results of QR analysis and watershed modeling procedures, respectively. For any stream in the Raritan River Basin evaluated as part of this study, the hydro-TMDL can be expressed as the greatest amount of deviation in flow a stream can exhibit without violating the stream’s designated aquatic-life criteria. Use of this surrogate approach is appropriate because flows that fall outside the established percentile ranges are ultimately a function of many anthropogenic modifications of the landscape, including the amount of stormwater runoff generated from impervious surfaces within a given basin, the presence of manmade structures designed to retain or divert water, the magnitude of ground- and surface-water abstraction, and the presence of water-supply processes implemented to support human needs. In addition, the stream-type-specific flow indices used as the basis for the hydro-TMDL approach are useful for representing the hydrologic conditions of class A and C streams/basins because they incorporate the full spectrum of flow conditions (very low to very high) that occur in the stream system over a long period of time, as well as those flow properties that change as a result of seasonal variation. Ultimately, an estimate of the maximum percentage flow reduction that could be allowed will be needed to address the aquatic-life impairments in many of the study streams in the Raritan River Basin and will be necessary for identifying appropriate target flow conditions for hydro-TMDL implementation. As described in this report, a target flow value equal to the 25th- or 75th-percentile flow rate could be selected as the point useful for setting specific hydrologic targets. This selection, however, is a management decision that could vary depending on the designated use of the stream or other regulatory factors (for example, water-supply protection, trout production, antidegradation policies, or special protection designations). In New Jersey streams where no unambiguous stressors can be identified, State monitoring agencies, such as the NJDEP, could choose to require the implementation of a flow-based TMDL that not only supports designated uses, but meets the regulatory requirements under the Clean Water Act, and represents a balance between water supply intended to meet human needs and the conservation of ecosystem integrity.

High throughput, parallel imaging and biomarker quantification of human spermatozoa by ImageStream flow cytometry.

PubMed

Buckman, Clayton; George, Thaddeus C; Friend, Sherree; Sutovsky, Miriam; Miranda-Vizuete, Antonio; Ozanon, Christophe; Morrissey, Phil; Sutovsky, Peter

2009-12-01

Spermatid specific thioredoxin-3 protein (SPTRX-3) accumulates in the superfluous cytoplasm of defective human spermatozoa. Novel ImageStream technology combining flow cytometry with cell imaging was used for parallel quantification and visualization of SPTRX-3 protein in defective spermatozoa of five men from infertile couples. The majority of the SPTRX-3 containing cells were overwhelmingly spermatozoa with a variety of morphological defects, detectable in the ImageStream recorded images. Quantitative parameters of relative SPTRX-3 induced fluorescence measured by ImageStream correlated closely with conventional flow cytometric measurements of the same sample set and reflected the results of clinical semen evaluation. Image Stream quantification of SPTRX-3 combines and surpasses the informative value of both conventional flow cytometry and light microscopic semen evaluation. The observed patterns of the retention of SPTRX-3 in the sperm samples from infertility patients support the view that SPTRX3 is a biomarker of male infertility.

Modeling the relations between flow regime components, species traits, and spawning success of fishes in warmwater streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Craven, S.W.; Peterson, J.T.; Freeman, Mary C.; Kwak, T.J.; Irwin, E.

2010-01-01

Modifications to stream hydrologic regimes can have a profound influence on the dynamics of their fish populations. Using hierarchical linear models, we examined the relations between flow regime and young-of-year fish density using fish sampling and discharge data from three different warmwater streams in Illinois, Alabama, and Georgia. We used an information theoretic approach to evaluate the relative support for models describing hypothesized influences of five flow regime components representing: short-term high and low flows; short-term flow stability; and long-term mean flows and flow stability on fish reproductive success during fish spawning and rearing periods. We also evaluated the influence of ten fish species traits on fish reproductive success. Species traits included spawning duration, reproductive strategy, egg incubation rate, swimming locomotion morphology, general habitat preference, and food habits. Model selection results indicated that young-of-year fish density was positively related to short-term high flows during the spawning period and negatively related to flow variability during the rearing period. However, the effect of the flow regime components varied substantially among species, but was related to species traits. The effect of short-term high flows on the reproductive success was lower for species that broadcast their eggs during spawning. Species with cruiser swimming locomotion morphologies (e.g., Micropterus) also were more vulnerable to variable flows during the rearing period. Our models provide insight into the conditions and timing of flows that influence the reproductive success of warmwater stream fishes and may guide decisions related to stream regulation and management. ?? 2010 US Government.

The importance of base flow in sustaining surface water flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, Matthew P.; Buto, Susan G.; Susong, David D.; Rumsey, Christine

2016-01-01

The Colorado River has been identified as the most overallocated river in the world. Considering predicted future imbalances between water supply and demand and the growing recognition that base flow (a proxy for groundwater discharge to streams) is critical for sustaining flow in streams and rivers, there is a need to develop methods to better quantify present-day base flow across large regions. We adapted and applied the spatially referenced regression on watershed attributes (SPARROW) water quality model to assess the spatial distribution of base flow, the fraction of streamflow supported by base flow, and estimates of and potential processes contributing to the amount of base flow that is lost during in-stream transport in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). On average, 56% of the streamflow in the UCRB originated as base flow, and precipitation was identified as the dominant driver of spatial variability in base flow at the scale of the UCRB, with the majority of base flow discharge to streams occurring in upper elevation watersheds. The model estimates an average of 1.8 × 1010 m3/yr of base flow in the UCRB; greater than 80% of which is lost during in-stream transport to the Lower Colorado River Basin via processes including evapotranspiration and water diversion for irrigation. Our results indicate that surface waters in the Colorado River Basin are dependent on base flow, and that management approaches that consider groundwater and surface water as a joint resource will be needed to effectively manage current and future water resources in the Basin.

The importance of base flow in sustaining surface water flow in the Upper Colorado River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miller, Matthew P.; Buto, Susan G.; Susong, David D.; Rumsey, Christine A.

2016-05-01

The Colorado River has been identified as the most overallocated river in the world. Considering predicted future imbalances between water supply and demand and the growing recognition that base flow (a proxy for groundwater discharge to streams) is critical for sustaining flow in streams and rivers, there is a need to develop methods to better quantify present-day base flow across large regions. We adapted and applied the spatially referenced regression on watershed attributes (SPARROW) water quality model to assess the spatial distribution of base flow, the fraction of streamflow supported by base flow, and estimates of and potential processes contributing to the amount of base flow that is lost during in-stream transport in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB). On average, 56% of the streamflow in the UCRB originated as base flow, and precipitation was identified as the dominant driver of spatial variability in base flow at the scale of the UCRB, with the majority of base flow discharge to streams occurring in upper elevation watersheds. The model estimates an average of 1.8 × 1010 m3/yr of base flow in the UCRB; greater than 80% of which is lost during in-stream transport to the Lower Colorado River Basin via processes including evapotranspiration and water diversion for irrigation. Our results indicate that surface waters in the Colorado River Basin are dependent on base flow, and that management approaches that consider groundwater and surface water as a joint resource will be needed to effectively manage current and future water resources in the Basin.

Biological and physical conditions of macroinvertebrates in reference lowland streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

de Brouwer, Jan; Eekhout, Joris; Verdonschot, Piet

2016-04-01

Channelisation measures taken halfway the 20th century have had destructive consequences for the diversity of the ecology in the majority of the lowland streams in countries such as the Netherlands. Currently, stream restoration measures are being implemented in these degraded lowland streams, where design principles are often based on outdated relationships between biological and physical conditions. Little is known about the reference conditions in these streams. Therefore, the aim of this research is to quantify the relationships between biological and physical conditions of macroinvertebrates in reference lowland streams. The research was conducted in four near-natural lowland streams in Central Poland. Field data were obtained during a field campaign in 2011. The following data were obtained in a 50-m reach in each of the four streams: macroinvertebrate sampling, spatial habitat patterns, bathymetry, and flow-velocity. Furthermore, water level, light sensitivity and temperature sensors were installed to obtain the temporal dynamic of these streams. Macroinvertebrates were sampled in 9 different habitat types, i.e. sand, gravel, fine organic matter, stones, branches, leaves, silt, vegetation, and wood. Macroinvertebrates were determined to the highest taxonomic level possible. Data from the bathymetrical surveys were interpolated on a grid and bathymetrical metrics were determined. Flow velocity measurements were related to habitats and flow velocity metrics were determined. Analysis of the data shows that flow conditions vary among the different habitat, with a gradient from hard substrates towards soft substrates. Furthermore, the data show that stream as a unit best explains species composition, but also specific habitat conditions, such as substrate type and flow velocity, correlate with species composition. More specific, the data shows a strong effect of wood on species composition. These findings may have implications for stream restoration design, which mainly focus on large-scale reconstruction of channel planform, whereas this study shows that improvement of stream ecology should focus on the smaller habitat scale.

Load Forecasting Based Distribution System Network Reconfiguration -- A Distributed Data-Driven Approach

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jiang, Huaiguang; Zhang, Yingchen; Muljadi, Eduard

In this paper, a short-term load forecasting approach based network reconfiguration is proposed in a parallel manner. Specifically, a support vector regression (SVR) based short-term load forecasting approach is designed to provide an accurate load prediction and benefit the network reconfiguration. Because of the nonconvexity of the three-phase balanced optimal power flow, a second-order cone program (SOCP) based approach is used to relax the optimal power flow problem. Then, the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM) is used to compute the optimal power flow in distributed manner. Considering the limited number of the switches and the increasing computation capability, themore » proposed network reconfiguration is solved in a parallel way. The numerical results demonstrate the feasible and effectiveness of the proposed approach.« less

Flood-inundation maps for the Driftwood River and Sugar Creek near Edinburgh, Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fowler, Kathleen K.; Kim, Moon H.; Menke, Chad D.

2012-01-01

Digital flood-inundation maps for an 11.2 mile reach of the Driftwood River and a 5.2 mile reach of Sugar Creek, both near Edinburgh, Indiana, were created by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in cooperation with the Camp Atterbury Joint Maneuver Training Center, Edinburgh, Indiana. The inundation maps, which can be accessed through the USGS Flood Inundation Mapping Science Web site at http://water.usgs.gov/osw/flood_inundation/, depict estimates of the areal extent of flooding corresponding to selected water levels (stages) at the USGS streamgage 03363000 Driftwood River near Edinburgh, Ind. Current conditions at the USGS streamgage in Indiana may be obtained on the Internet at http://waterdata.usgs.gov/in/nwis/current/?type=flow. In addition, the information has been provided to the National Weather Service (NWS) for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) flood warning system at http://water.weather.gov/ahps/. The NWS forecasts flood hydrographs at many places that are often collocated at USGS streamgages. That forecasted peak-stage information, also available on the Internet, may be used in conjunction with the maps developed in this study to show predicted areas of flood inundation. For this study, flood profiles were computed for the stream reaches by means of a one-dimensional step-backwater model. The model was calibrated using the most current stage-discharge relations at the USGS streamgage 03363000 Driftwood River near Edinburgh, Ind. The hydraulic model was then used to determine elevations throughout the study reaches for nine water-surface profiles for flood stages at 1-ft intervals referenced to the streamgage datum and ranging from bankfull to nearly the highest recorded water level at the USGS streamgage 03363000 Driftwood River near Edinburgh, Ind. The simulated water-surface profiles were then combined with a geospatial digital elevation model (derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data) in order to delineate the area flooded at each water level. The availability of these maps along with real-time information available online regarding current stage from USGS streamgages and forecasted stream stages from the NWS provide emergency management personnel and residents with information that is critical for flood response activities such as evacuations and road closures as well as for post flood recovery efforts.

Development of a comprehensive watershed model applied to study stream yield under drought conditions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perkins, S.P.; Sophocleous, M.

1999-01-01

We developed a model code to simulate a watershed's hydrology and the hydraulic response of an interconnected stream-aquifer system, and applied the model code to the Lower Republican River Basin in Kansas. The model code links two well-known computer programs: MODFLOW (modular 3-D flow model), which simulates ground water flow and stream-aquifer interaction; and SWAT (soil water assessment tool), a soil water budget simulator for an agricultural watershed. SWAT represents a basin as a collection of subbasins in terms of soil, land use, and weather data, and simulates each subbasin on a daily basis to determine runoff, percolation, evaporation, irrigation, pond seepages and crop growth. Because SWAT applies a lumped hydrologic model to each subbasin, spatial heterogeneities with respect to factors such as soil type and land use are not resolved geographically, but can instead be represented statistically. For the Republican River Basin model, each combination of six soil types and three land uses, referred to as a hydrologic response unit (HRU), was simulated with a separate execution of SWAT. A spatially weighted average was then taken over these results for each hydrologic flux and time step by a separate program, SWBAVG. We wrote a package for MOD-FLOW to associate each subbasin with a subset of aquifer grid cells and stream reaches, and to distribute the hydrologic fluxes given for each subbasin by SWAT and SWBAVG over MODFLOW's stream-aquifer grid to represent tributary flow, surface and ground water diversions, ground water recharge, and evapotranspiration from ground water. The Lower Republican River Basin model was calibrated with respect to measured ground water levels, streamflow, and reported irrigation water use. The model was used to examine the relative contributions of stream yield components and the impact on stream yield and base flow of administrative measures to restrict irrigation water use during droughts. Model results indicate that tributary flow is the dominant component of stream yield and that reduction of irrigation water use produces a corresponding increase in base flow and stream yield. However, the increase in stream yield resulting from reduced water use does not appear to be of sufficient magnitude to restore minimum desirable streamflows.

Regional Relations in Bankfull Channel Characteristics determined from flow measurements at selected stream-gaging stations in West Virginia, 1911-2002

USGS Publications Warehouse

Messinger, Terence; Wiley, Jeffrey B.

2004-01-01

Three bankfull channel characteristics?cross-sectional area, width, and depth?were significantly correlated with drainage area in regression equations developed for two regions in West Virginia. Channel characteristics were determined from analysis of flow measurements made at 74 U.S. Geological Survey stream-gaging stations at flows between 0.5 and 5.0 times bankfull flow between 1911 and 2002. Graphical and regression analysis were used to delineate an 'Eastern Region' and a 'Western Region,' which were separated by the boundary between the Appalachian Plateaus and Valley and Ridge Physiographic Provinces. Streams that drained parts of both provinces had channel characteristics typical of the Eastern Region, and were grouped with it. Standard error for the six regression equations, three for each region, ranged between 8.7 and 16 percent. Cross-sectional area and depth were greater relative to drainage area for the Western Region than they were for the Eastern Region. Regression equations were defined for streams draining between 46.5 and 1,619 square miles for the Eastern Region, and between 2.78 and 1,354 square miles for the Western Region. Stream-gaging stations with two or more cross sections where flow had been measured at flows between 0.5 and 5.0 times the 1.5-year flow showed poor replication of channel characteristics compared to the 95-percent confidence intervals of the regression, suggesting that within-reach variability for the stream-gaging stations may be substantial. A disproportionate number of the selected stream-gaging stations were on large (drainage area greater than 100 square miles) streams in the central highlands of West Virginia, and only one stream-gaging station that met data-quality criteria was available to represent the region within about 50 miles of the Ohio River north of Parkersburg, West Virginia. Many of the cross sections were at bridges, which can change channel shape. Although the data discussed in this report may not be representative of channelcharacteristics on many or most streams, the regional equations in this report provide useful information for field identification of bankfull indicators.

Flight Departure Delay and Rerouting Under Uncertainty in En Route Convective Weather

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mukherjee, Avijit; Grabbe, Shon; Sridhar, Banavar

2011-01-01

Delays caused by uncertainty in weather forecasts can be reduced by improving traffic flow management decisions. This paper presents a methodology for traffic flow management under uncertainty in convective weather forecasts. An algorithm for assigning departure delays and reroutes to aircraft is presented. Departure delay and route assignment are executed at multiple stages, during which, updated weather forecasts and flight schedules are used. At each stage, weather forecasts up to a certain look-ahead time are treated as deterministic and flight scheduling is done to mitigate the impact of weather on four-dimensional flight trajectories. Uncertainty in weather forecasts during departure scheduling results in tactical airborne holding of flights. The amount of airborne holding depends on the accuracy of forecasts as well as the look-ahead time included in the departure scheduling. The weather forecast look-ahead time is varied systematically within the experiments performed in this paper to analyze its effect on flight delays. Based on the results, longer look-ahead times cause higher departure delays and additional flying time due to reroutes. However, the amount of airborne holding necessary to prevent weather incursions reduces when the forecast look-ahead times are higher. For the chosen day of traffic and weather, setting the look-ahead time to 90 minutes yields the lowest total delay cost.

WASP7 Stream Transport - Model Theory and User's Guide: Supplement to Water Quality Analysis Simulation Program (WASP) User Documentation

EPA Science Inventory

The standard WASP7 stream transport model calculates water flow through a branching stream network that may include both free-flowing and ponded segments. This supplemental user manual documents the hydraulic algorithms, including the transport and hydrogeometry equations, the m...

40 CFR Table 4 to Subpart Ggg of... - Monitoring Requirements for Control Devices a

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... (regenerative) Stream flow monitoring device, and 1. Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s) 1. For each regeneration cycle, record the total regeneration stream... regeneration 2. For each regeneration cycle, record the maximum carbon bed-temperature. 3. Temperature of...

40 CFR Table 4 to Subpart Ggg of... - Monitoring Requirements for Control Devices a

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... (regenerative) Stream flow monitoring device, and 1. Total regeneration stream mass or volumetric flow during carbon bed regeneration cycle(s) 1. For each regeneration cycle, record the total regeneration stream... regeneration 2. For each regeneration cycle, record the maximum carbon bed-temperature. 3. Temperature of...

HOW WELL CAN YOU ESTIMATE LOW FLOW AND BANKFULL DISCHARGE FROM STREAM CHANNEL HABITAT DATA?

EPA Science Inventory

Modeled estimates of stream discharge are becoming more important because of reductions in the number of gauging stations and increases in flow alteration from land development and climate change. Field measurements of channel morphology are available at thousands of streams and...

Distinguishing high and low flow domains in urban drainage systems 2 days ahead using numerical weather prediction ensembles

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Courdent, Vianney; Grum, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

2018-01-01

Precipitation constitutes a major contribution to the flow in urban storm- and wastewater systems. Forecasts of the anticipated runoff flows, created from radar extrapolation and/or numerical weather predictions, can potentially be used to optimize operation in both wet and dry weather periods. However, flow forecasts are inevitably uncertain and their use will ultimately require a trade-off between the value of knowing what will happen in the future and the probability and consequence of being wrong. In this study we examine how ensemble forecasts from the HIRLAM-DMI-S05 numerical weather prediction (NWP) model subject to three different ensemble post-processing approaches can be used to forecast flow exceedance in a combined sewer for a wide range of ratios between the probability of detection (POD) and the probability of false detection (POFD). We use a hydrological rainfall-runoff model to transform the forecasted rainfall into forecasted flow series and evaluate three different approaches to establishing the relative operating characteristics (ROC) diagram of the forecast, which is a plot of POD against POFD for each fraction of concordant ensemble members and can be used to select the weight of evidence that matches the desired trade-off between POD and POFD. In the first approach, the rainfall input to the model is calculated for each of 25 ensemble members as a weighted average of rainfall from the NWP cells over the catchment where the weights are proportional to the areal intersection between the catchment and the NWP cells. In the second approach, a total of 2825 flow ensembles are generated using rainfall input from the neighbouring NWP cells up to approximately 6 cells in all directions from the catchment. In the third approach, the first approach is extended spatially by successively increasing the area covered and for each spatial increase and each time step selecting only the cell with the highest intensity resulting in a total of 175 ensemble members. While the first and second approaches have the disadvantage of not covering the full range of the ROC diagram and being computationally heavy, respectively, the third approach leads to both a broad coverage of the ROC diagram range at a relatively low computational cost. A broad coverage of the ROC diagram offers a larger selection of prediction skill to choose from to best match to the prediction purpose. The study distinguishes itself from earlier research in being the first application to urban hydrology, with fast runoff and small catchments that are highly sensitive to local extremes. Furthermore, no earlier reference has been found on the highly efficient third approach using only neighbouring cells with the highest threat to expand the range of the ROC diagram. This study provides an efficient and robust approach to using ensemble rainfall forecasts affected by bias and misplacement errors for predicting flow threshold exceedance in urban drainage systems.

Streamflow losses along the Balcones Fault Zone, Nueces River basin, Texas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Land, L.F.; Boning, C.W.; Harmsen, Lynn; Reeves, R.D.

1983-01-01

Statistical evaluations of historical daily flow records for the streams that have gaging stations upstream and downstream from the recharge zone provided mathematical relationships that expressed downstream flow in terms of other significant parameters. For each stream, flow entering the recharge zone is most significant in defining downstream flow; for some streams, antecedent flows at the upstream site and ground-water levels are also significantly related to downstream flow. The analyses also determined the discharges required upstream from the recharge zone to sustain flow downstream from that zone. These discharges ranged from 355 cubic feet per second for the combined Frio and Dry Frio Rivers to 33 cubic feet per second for the Nueces River. The entire flows of lesser magnitude are generally lost to recharge to the aquifer.

Effects of watershed land use and geomorphology on stream low flows during severe drought conditions in the southern Blue Ridge Mountains, Georgia and North Carolina, United States

Treesearch

Katie Price; C. Jackson; Albert Parker; Trond Reitan; John Dowd; Mike Cyterski

2011-01-01

Land use and physiographic variability influence stream low flows, yet their interactions and relative influence remain unresolved. Our objective was to assess the influence of land use and watershed geomorphic characteristics on low-flow variability in the southern Blue Ridge Mountains of North Carolina and Georgia. Ten minute interval discharge data for 35 streams (...

Magnetic fields and flows between 1 AU and 0.3 AU during the primary mission of HELIOS 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burlaga, L. F.; Ness, N. F.; Mariani, F.; Bavassano, B.; Villante, U.; Rosenbauer, H.; Schwenn, R.; Harvey, J.

1978-01-01

The recurrent flow and field patterns observed by HELIOS 1, and the relation between these patterns and coronal holes are discussed. Four types of recurrent patterns were observed: a large recurrent stream, a recurrent slow (quiet) flow, a rapidly evolving flow, and a recurrent compound stream. There recurrent streams were not stationary, for although the sources recurred at approximately the same longitudes on successive rotations, the shapes and latitudinal patterns changed from one rotation to the next. A type of magnetic field and plasma structure characterized by a low ion temperature and a high magnetic field intensity is described as well as the structures of stream boundaries between the sun at approximately 0.3 AU.

Empirical flow parameters - a tool for hydraulic model validity assessment.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2013-08-01

Data in Texas from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) physical stream flow and channel property measurements for gaging stations in the state of Texas were used to construct relations between observed stream flow, topographic slope, mean section veloc...

Recycled water for stream flow augmentation: benefits, challenges, and the presence of wastewater-derived organic compounds.

PubMed

Plumlee, Megan H; Gurr, Christopher J; Reinhard, Martin

2012-11-01

Stream flow augmentation with recycled water has the potential to improve stream habitat and increase potable water supply, but the practice is not yet well understood or documented. The objectives of this report are to present a short review illustrated by a case study, followed by recommendations for future stream flow augmentation projects. Despite the fact that wastewater discharge to streams is commonplace, a water agency pursuing stream flow augmentation with recycled water will face unique challenges. For example, recycled water typically contains trace amounts of organic wastewater-derived compounds (OWCs) for which the potential ecological risks must be balanced against the benefits of an augmentation project. Successful stream flow augmentation with recycled water requires that the lead agency clearly articulate a strong project rationale and identify key benefits. It must be assumed that the public will have some concerns about water quality. Public acceptance may be better if an augmentation project has co-benefits beyond maintaining stream ecosystems, such as improving water system supply and reliability (i.e. potable use offset). Regulatory or project-specific criteria (acceptable concentrations of priority OWCs) would enable assessment of ecosystem impacts and demonstration of practitioner compliance. Additional treatment (natural or engineered) of the recycled water may be considered. If it is not deemed necessary or feasible, existing recycled water quality may be adequate to achieve project goals depending on project rationale, site and water quality evaluation, and public acceptance.

A logistic regression equation for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially in Massachusetts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bent, Gardner C.; Archfield, Stacey A.

2002-01-01

A logistic regression equation was developed for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site in Massachusetts. The equation provides city and town conservation commissions and the Massachusetts Department of Environmental Protection with an additional method for assessing whether streams are perennial or intermittent at a specific site in Massachusetts. This information is needed to assist these environmental agencies, who administer the Commonwealth of Massachusetts Rivers Protection Act of 1996, which establishes a 200-foot-wide protected riverfront area extending along the length of each side of the stream from the mean annual high-water line along each side of perennial streams, with exceptions in some urban areas. The equation was developed by relating the verified perennial or intermittent status of a stream site to selected basin characteristics of naturally flowing streams (no regulation by dams, surface-water withdrawals, ground-water withdrawals, diversion, waste-water discharge, and so forth) in Massachusetts. Stream sites used in the analysis were identified as perennial or intermittent on the basis of review of measured streamflow at sites throughout Massachusetts and on visual observation at sites in the South Coastal Basin, southeastern Massachusetts. Measured or observed zero flow(s) during months of extended drought as defined by the 310 Code of Massachusetts Regulations (CMR) 10.58(2)(a) were not considered when designating the perennial or intermittent status of a stream site. The database used to develop the equation included a total of 305 stream sites (84 intermittent- and 89 perennial-stream sites in the State, and 50 intermittent- and 82 perennial-stream sites in the South Coastal Basin). Stream sites included in the database had drainage areas that ranged from 0.14 to 8.94 square miles in the State and from 0.02 to 7.00 square miles in the South Coastal Basin.Results of the logistic regression analysis indicate that the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site in Massachusetts can be estimated as a function of (1) drainage area (cube root), (2) drainage density, (3) areal percentage of stratified-drift deposits (square root), (4) mean basin slope, and (5) location in the South Coastal Basin or the remainder of the State. Although the equation developed provides an objective means for estimating the probability of a stream flowing perennially at a specific site, the reliability of the equation is constrained by the data used to develop the equation. The equation may not be reliable for (1) drainage areas less than 0.14 square mile in the State or less than 0.02 square mile in the South Coastal Basin, (2) streams with losing reaches, or (3) streams draining the southern part of the South Coastal Basin and the eastern part of the Buzzards Bay Basin and the entire area of Cape Cod and the Islands Basins.

A New Streamflow-Routing (SFR1) Package to Simulate Stream-Aquifer Interaction with MODFLOW-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prudic, David E.; Konikow, Leonard F.; Banta, Edward R.

2004-01-01

The increasing concern for water and its quality require improved methods to evaluate the interaction between streams and aquifers and the strong influence that streams can have on the flow and transport of contaminants through many aquifers. For this reason, a new Streamflow-Routing (SFR1) Package was written for use with the U.S. Geological Survey's MODFLOW-2000 ground-water flow model. The SFR1 Package is linked to the Lake (LAK3) Package, and both have been integrated with the Ground-Water Transport (GWT) Process of MODFLOW-2000 (MODFLOW-GWT). SFR1 replaces the previous Stream (STR1) Package, with the most important difference being that stream depth is computed at the midpoint of each reach instead of at the beginning of each reach, as was done in the original Stream Package. This approach allows for the addition and subtraction of water from runoff, precipitation, and evapotranspiration within each reach. Because the SFR1 Package computes stream depth differently than that for the original package, a different name was used to distinguish it from the original Stream (STR1) Package. The SFR1 Package has five options for simulating stream depth and four options for computing diversions from a stream. The options for computing stream depth are: a specified value; Manning's equation (using a wide rectangular channel or an eight-point cross section); a power equation; or a table of values that relate flow to depth and width. Each stream segment can have a different option. Outflow from lakes can be computed using the same options. Because the wetted perimeter is computed for the eight-point cross section and width is computed for the power equation and table of values, the streambed conductance term no longer needs to be calculated externally whenever the area of streambed changes as a function of flow. The concentration of solute is computed in a stream network when MODFLOW-GWT is used in conjunction with the SFR1 Package. The concentration of a solute in a stream reach is based on a mass-balance approach and accounts for exchanges with (inputs from or losses to) ground-water systems. Two test examples are used to illustrate some of the capabilities of the SFR1 Package. The first test simulation was designed to illustrate how pumping of ground water from an aquifer connected to streams can affect streamflow, depth, width, and streambed conductance using the different options. The second test simulation was designed to illustrate solute transport through interconnected lakes, streams, and aquifers. Because of the need to examine time series results from the model simulations, the Gage Package first described in the LAK3 documentation was revised to include time series results of selected variables (streamflows, stream depth and width, streambed conductance, solute concentrations, and solute loads) for specified stream reaches. The mass-balance or continuity approach for routing flow and solutes through a stream network may not be applicable for all interactions between streams and aquifers. The SFR1 Package is best suited for modeling long-term changes (months to hundreds of years) in ground-water flow and solute concentrations using averaged flows in streams. The Package is not recommended for modeling the transient exchange of water between streams and aquifers when the objective is to examine short-term (minutes to days) effects caused by rapidly changing streamflows.

A modelling study of hyporheic exchange pattern and the sequence, size, and spacing of stream bedforms in mountain stream networks, Oregon, USA.

Treesearch

Michael N. Gooseff; Justin K. Anderson; Steven M. Wondzell; Justin LaNier; Roy Haggerty

2005-01-01

Studies of hyporheic exchange flows have identified physical features of channels that control exchange flow at the channel unit scale, namely slope breaks in the longitudinal profile of streams that generate subsurface head distributions. We recently completed a field study that suggested channel unit spacing in stream longitudinal profiles can be used to predict the...

Flow directionality, mountain barriers and functional traits determine diatom metacommunity structuring of high mountain streams.

PubMed

Dong, Xiaoyu; Li, Bin; He, Fengzhi; Gu, Yuan; Sun, Meiqin; Zhang, Haomiao; Tan, Lu; Xiao, Wen; Liu, Shuoran; Cai, Qinghua

2016-04-19

Stream metacommunities are structured by a combination of local (environmental filtering) and regional (dispersal) processes. The unique characters of high mountain streams could potentially determine metacommunity structuring, which is currently poorly understood. Aiming at understanding how these characters influenced metacommunity structuring, we explored the relative importance of local environmental conditions and various dispersal processes, including through geographical (overland), topographical (across mountain barriers) and network (along flow direction) pathways in shaping benthic diatom communities. From a trait perspective, diatoms were categorized into high-profile, low-profile and motile guild to examine the roles of functional traits. Our results indicated that both environmental filtering and dispersal processes influenced metacommunity structuring, with dispersal contributing more than environmental processes. Among the three pathways, stream corridors were primary pathway. Deconstructive analysis suggested different responses to environmental and spatial factors for each of three ecological guilds. However, regardless of traits, dispersal among streams was limited by mountain barriers, while dispersal along stream was promoted by rushing flow in high mountain stream. Our results highlighted that directional processes had prevailing effects on metacommunity structuring in high mountain streams. Flow directionality, mountain barriers and ecological guilds contributed to a better understanding of the roles that mountains played in structuring metacommunity.

Operational early warning of shallow landslides in Norway: Evaluation of landslide forecasts and associated challenges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahl, Mads-Peter; Colleuille, Hervé; Boje, Søren; Sund, Monica; Krøgli, Ingeborg; Devoli, Graziella

2015-04-01

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) runs a national early warning system (EWS) for shallow landslides in Norway. Slope failures included in the EWS are debris slides, debris flows, debris avalanches and slush flows. The EWS has been operational on national scale since 2013 and consists of (a) quantitative landslide thresholds and daily hydro-meteorological prognosis; (b) daily qualitative expert evaluation of prognosis / additional data in decision to determine warning levels; (c) publication of warning levels through various custom build internet platforms. The effectiveness of an EWS depends on both the quality of forecasts being issued, and the communication of forecasts to the public. In this analysis a preliminary evaluation of landslide forecasts from the Norwegian EWS within the period 2012-2014 is presented. Criteria for categorizing forecasts as correct, missed events or false alarms are discussed and concrete examples of forecasts falling into the latter two categories are presented. The evaluation show a rate of correct forecasts exceeding 90%. However correct forecast categorization is sometimes difficult, particularly due to poorly documented landslide events. Several challenges has to be met in the process of further lowering rates of missed events of false alarms in the EWS. Among others these include better implementation of susceptibility maps in landslide forecasting, more detailed regionalization of hydro-meteorological landslide thresholds, improved prognosis on precipitation, snowmelt and soil water content as well as the build-up of more experience among the people performing landslide forecasting.

Hydrogeomorphic controls on hyporheic and riparian transport in two headwater mountain streams during base flow recession

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Adam S.; Schmadel, Noah M.; Wondzell, Steven M.; Harman, Ciaran; Gooseff, Michael N.; Singha, Kamini

2016-02-01

Solute transport along riparian and hyporheic flow paths is broadly expected to respond to dynamic hydrologic forcing by streams, aquifers, and hillslopes. However, direct observation of these dynamic responses is lacking, as is the relative control of geologic setting as a control on responses to dynamic hydrologic forcing. We conducted a series of four stream solute tracer injections through base flow recession in each of two watersheds with contrasting valley morphology in the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest, monitoring tracer concentrations in the stream and in a network of shallow riparian wells in each watershed. We found hyporheic mean arrival time, temporal variance, and fraction of stream water in the bedrock-constrained valley bottom and near large roughness elements in the wider valley bottom were not variable with discharge, suggesting minimal control by hydrologic forcing. Conversely, we observed increases in mean arrival time and temporal variance and decreasing fraction stream water with decreasing discharge near the hillslopes in the wider valley bottom. This may indicate changes in stream discharge and valley bottom hydrology control transport in less constrained locations. We detail five hydrogeomorphic responses to base flow recession to explain observed spatial and temporal patterns in the interactions between streams and their valley bottoms. Models able to account for the transition from geologically dominated processes in the near-stream subsurface to hydrologically dominated processes near the hillslope will be required to predict solute transport and fate in valley bottoms of headwater mountain streams.

Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS) Version 2.6. User’s Manual

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-03-31

odimens.D, which takes the rivers.dat flow levels, inputs an SST and sea surface salinity (SSS) climatology from GDEM , and outputs the orivs_1.D...Center for Medium-range Weather Forecast GB GigaByte GDEM Global Digital Elevation Map GOFS Global Ocean Forecast System HPCMP High Performance

Estimates of Median Flows for Streams on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Charles A.; Wolock, David M.; Artman, Joshua C.

2004-01-01

The Kansas State Legislature, by enacting Kansas Statute KSA 82a?2001 et. seq., mandated the criteria for determining which Kansas stream segments would be subject to classification by the State. One criterion for the selection as a classified stream segment is based on the statistic of median flow being equal to or greater than 1 cubic foot per second. As specified by KSA 82a?2001 et. seq., median flows were determined from U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging-station data by using the most-recent 10 years of gaged data (KSA) for each streamflow-gaging station. Median flows also were determined by using gaged data from the entire period of record (all-available hydrology, AAH). Least-squares multiple regression techniques were used, along with Tobit analyses, to develop equations for estimating median flows for uncontrolled stream segments. The drainage area of the gaging stations on uncontrolled stream segments used in the regression analyses ranged from 2.06 to 12,004 square miles. A logarithmic transformation of the data was needed to develop the best linear relation for computing median flows. In the regression analyses, the significant climatic and basin characteristics, in order of importance, were drainage area, mean annual precipitation, mean basin permeability, and mean basin slope. Tobit analyses of KSA data yielded a model standard error of prediction of 0.285 logarithmic units, and the best equations using Tobit analyses of AAH data had a model standard error of prediction of 0.250 logarithmic units. These regression equations and an interpolation procedure were used to compute median flows for the uncontrolled stream segments on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register. Measured median flows from gaging stations were incorporated into the regression-estimated median flows along the stream segments where available. The segments that were uncontrolled were interpolated using gaged data weighted according to the drainage area and the bias between the regression-estimated and gaged flow information. On controlled segments of Kansas streams, the median flow information was interpolated between gaging stations using only gaged data weighted by drainage area. Of the 2,232 total stream segments on the Kansas Surface Water Register, 34.5 percent of the segments had an estimated median streamflow of less than 1 cubic foot per second when the KSA analysis was used. When the AAH analysis was used, 36.2 percent of the segments had an estimated median streamflow of less than 1 cubic foot per second. This report supercedes U.S. Geological Survey Water-Resources Investigations Report 02?4292.

Improving River Flow Predictions from the NOAA NCRFC Forecasting Model by Incorporating Satellite Observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tuttle, S. E.; Jacobs, J. M.; Restrepo, P. J.; Deweese, M. M.; Connelly, B.; Buan, S.

2016-12-01

The NOAA National Weather Service North Central River Forecast Center (NCRFC) is responsible for issuing river flow forecasts for parts of the Upper Mississippi, Great Lakes, and Hudson Bay drainages, including the Red River of the North basin (RRB). The NCRFC uses an operational hydrologic modeling infrastructure called the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) for its operational forecasts, which currently links the SNOW-17 snow accumulation and ablation model, to the Sacramento-Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) rainfall-runoff model, to a number of hydrologic and hydraulic flow routing models. The operational model is lumped and requires only area-averaged precipitation and air temperature as inputs. NCRFC forecasters use observational data of hydrological state variables as a source of supplemental information during forecasting, and can use professional judgment to modify the model states in real time. In a few recent years (e.g. 2009, 2013), the RRB exhibited unexpected anomalous hydrologic behavior, resulting in overestimation of peak flood discharge by up to 70% and highlighting the need for observations with high temporal and spatial coverage. Unfortunately, observations of hydrological states (e.g. soil moisture, snow water equivalent (SWE)) are relatively scarce in the RRB. Satellite remote sensing can fill this need. We use Minnesota's Buffalo River watershed within the RRB as a test case and update the operational CHPS model using modifications based on satellite observations, including AMSR-E SWE and SMOS soil moisture estimates. We evaluate the added forecasting skill of the satellite-enhanced model compared to measured streamflow using hindcasts from 2010-2013.

Client-Friendly Forecasting: Seasonal Runoff Predictions Using Out-of-the-Box Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weil, P.

2013-12-01

For more than a century, statistical relationships have been recognized between atmospheric conditions at locations separated by thousands of miles, referred to as teleconnections. Some of the recognized teleconnections provide useful information about expected hydrologic conditions, so certain records of atmospheric conditions are quantified and published as hydroclimate indices. Certain hydroclimate indices can serve as strong leading indicators of climate patterns over North America and can be used to make skillful forecasts of seasonal runoff. The methodology described here creates a simple-to-use model that utilizes easily accessed data to make forecasts of April through September runoff months before the runoff season begins. For this project, forecasting models were developed for two snowmelt-driven river systems in Colorado and Wyoming. In addition to the global hydroclimate indices, the methodology uses several local hydrologic variables including the previous year's drought severity, headwater snow water equivalent and the reservoir contents for the major reservoirs in each basin. To improve the skill of the forecasts, logistic regression is used to develop a model that provides the likelihood that a year will fall into the upper, middle or lower tercile of historical flows. Categorical forecasting has two major advantages over modeling of specific flow amounts: (1) with less prediction outcomes models tend to have better predictive skill and (2) categorical models are very useful to clients and agencies with specific flow thresholds that dictate major changes in water resources management. The resulting methodology and functional forecasting model product is highly portable, applicable to many major river systems and easily explained to a non-technical audience.

Precipitation induced stream flow: An event based chemical and isotopic study of a small stream in the Great Plains region of the USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Machavaram, M.V.; Whittemore, Donald O.; Conrad, M.E.; Miller, N.L.

2006-01-01

A small stream in the Great Plains of USA was sampled to understand the streamflow components following intense precipitation and the influence of water storage structures in the drainage basin. Precipitation, stream, ponds, ground-water and soil moisture were sampled for determination of isotopic (D, 18O) and chemical (Cl, SO4) composition before and after two intense rain events. Following the first storm event, flow at the downstream locations was generated primarily through shallow subsurface flow and runoff whereas in the headwaters region - where a pond is located in the stream channel - shallow ground-water and pond outflow contributed to the flow. The distinct isotopic signatures of precipitation and the evaporated pond water allowed separation of the event water from the other sources that contributed to the flow. Similarly, variations in the Cl and SO4 concentrations helped identify the relative contributions of ground-water and soil moisture to the streamflow. The relationship between deuterium excess and Cl or SO4 content reveals that the early contributions from a rain event to streamflow depend upon the antecedent climatic conditions and the position along the stream channel within the watershed. The design of this study, in which data from several locations within a watershed were collected, shows that in small streams changes in relative contributions from ground water and soil moisture complicate hydrograph separation, with surface-water bodies providing additional complexity. It also demonstrates the usefulness of combined chemical and isotopic methods in hydrologic investigations, especially the utility of the deuterium excess parameter in quantifying the relative contributions of various source components to the stream flow. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Fine particle retention within stream storage areas at base flow and in response to a storm event

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Drummond, J. D.; Larsen, L. G.; González-Pinzón, R.; Packman, A. I.; Harvey, J. W.

2017-07-01

Fine particles (1-100 µm), including particulate organic carbon (POC) and fine sediment, influence stream ecological functioning because they may contain or have a high affinity to sorb nitrogen and phosphorus. These particles are immobilized within stream storage areas, especially hyporheic sediments and benthic biofilms. However, fine particles are also known to remobilize under all flow conditions. This combination of downstream transport and transient retention, influenced by stream geomorphology, controls the distribution of residence times over which fine particles influence stream ecosystems. The main objective of this study was to quantify immobilization and remobilization rates of fine particles in a third-order sand-and-gravel bed stream (Difficult Run, Virginia, USA) within different geomorphic units of the stream (i.e., pool, lateral cavity, and thalweg). During our field injection experiment, a thunderstorm-driven spate allowed us to observe fine particle dynamics during both base flow and in response to increased flow. Solute and fine particles were measured within stream surface waters, pore waters, sediment cores, and biofilms on cobbles. Measurements were taken at four different subsurface locations with varying geomorphology and at multiple depths. Approximately 68% of injected fine particles were retained during base flow until the onset of the spate. Retention was evident even after the spate, with 15.4% of the fine particles deposited during base flow still retained within benthic biofilms on cobbles and 14.9% within hyporheic sediment after the spate. Thus, through the combination of short-term remobilization and long-term retention, fine particles can serve as sources of carbon and nutrients to downstream ecosystems over a range of time scales.

Fine particle retention within stream storage areas at base flow and in response to a storm event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Drummond, J. D.; Larsen, L. G.; González-Pinzón, R.; Packman, A. I.; Harvey, Judson

2017-01-01

Fine particles (1–100 µm), including particulate organic carbon (POC) and fine sediment, influence stream ecological functioning because they may contain or have a high affinity to sorb nitrogen and phosphorus. These particles are immobilized within stream storage areas, especially hyporheic sediments and benthic biofilms. However, fine particles are also known to remobilize under all flow conditions. This combination of downstream transport and transient retention, influenced by stream geomorphology, controls the distribution of residence times over which fine particles influence stream ecosystems. The main objective of this study was to quantify immobilization and remobilization rates of fine particles in a third-order sand-and-gravel bed stream (Difficult Run, Virginia, USA) within different geomorphic units of the stream (i.e., pool, lateral cavity, and thalweg). During our field injection experiment, a thunderstorm-driven spate allowed us to observe fine particle dynamics during both base flow and in response to increased flow. Solute and fine particles were measured within stream surface waters, pore waters, sediment cores, and biofilms on cobbles. Measurements were taken at four different subsurface locations with varying geomorphology and at multiple depths. Approximately 68% of injected fine particles were retained during base flow until the onset of the spate. Retention was evident even after the spate, with 15.4% of the fine particles deposited during base flow still retained within benthic biofilms on cobbles and 14.9% within hyporheic sediment after the spate. Thus, through the combination of short-term remobilization and long-term retention, fine particles can serve as sources of carbon and nutrients to downstream ecosystems over a range of time scales.

Statistical-Dynamical Seasonal Forecasts of Central-Southwest Asian Winter Precipitation.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Goddard, Lisa; Barnston, Anthony G.

2005-06-01

Interannual precipitation variability in central-southwest (CSW) Asia has been associated with East Asian jet stream variability and western Pacific tropical convection. However, atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs) forced by observed sea surface temperature (SST) poorly simulate the region's interannual precipitation variability. The statistical-dynamical approach uses statistical methods to correct systematic deficiencies in the response of AGCMs to SST forcing. Statistical correction methods linking model-simulated Indo-west Pacific precipitation and observed CSW Asia precipitation result in modest, but statistically significant, cross-validated simulation skill in the northeast part of the domain for the period from 1951 to 1998. The statistical-dynamical method is also applied to recent (winter 1998/99 to 2002/03) multimodel, two-tier December-March precipitation forecasts initiated in October. This period includes 4 yr (winter of 1998/99 to 2001/02) of severe drought. Tercile probability forecasts are produced using ensemble-mean forecasts and forecast error estimates. The statistical-dynamical forecasts show enhanced probability of below-normal precipitation for the four drought years and capture the return to normal conditions in part of the region during the winter of 2002/03.May Kabul be without gold, but not without snow.—Traditional Afghan proverb

Forecasting of Average Monthly River Flows in Colombia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mesa, O. J.; Poveda, G.

2006-05-01

The last two decades have witnessed a marked increase in our knowledge of the causes of interannual hydroclimatic variability and our ability to make predictions. Colombia, located near the seat of the ENSO phenomenon, has been shown to experience negative (positive) anomalies in precipitation in concert with El Niño (La Niña). In general besides the Pacific Ocean, Colombia has climatic influences from the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea through the tropical forest of the Amazon basin and the savannas of the Orinoco River, in top of the orographic and hydro-climatic effects introduced by the Andes. As in various other countries of the region, hydro-electric power contributes a large proportion (75 %) of the total electricity generation in Colombia. Also, most agriculture is rain-fed dependant, and domestic water supply relies mainly on surface waters from creeks and rivers. Besides, various vector borne tropical diseases intensify in response to rain and temperature changes. Therefore, there is a direct connection between climatic fluctuations and national and regional economies. This talk specifically presents different forecasts of average monthly stream flows for the inflow into the largest reservoir used for hydropower generation in Colombia, and illustrates the potential economic savings of such forecasts. Because of planning of the reservoir operation, the most appropriated time scale for this application is the annual to interannual. Fortunately, this corresponds to the scale at which hydroclimate variability understanding has improved significantly. Among the different possibilities we have explored: traditional statistical ARIMA models, multiple linear regression, natural and constructed analogue models, the linear inverse model, neural network models, the non-parametric regression splines (MARS) model, regime dependant Markovian models and one we termed PREBEO, which is based on spectral bands decomposition using wavelets. Most of the methods make use of the climatic observations and the general prediction models of ENSO which are routinely reported in various sources (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/). We will compare the forecasting skills of the models, depending on lead time and initial month of forecasting. Besides ENSO indices, tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation index are relevant for these predictions in Colombia. Clear-cut benefits of these predictions are evident for the operation of the system. Ever since the 1991-1992 ENSO event the government, power companies and big consumers realized on its importance and routinely incorporated it into their operational planning. On the contrary, this new knowledge has not been useful for the expansion of the system to accommodate the increasing demand. Some kind of resonance between the scale of fluctuation of climate and the memory of decision makers produces a hydro-illogical cycle of urgency during El Niño dry times and of unawareness during La Niña abundance.

Effects of stream flow intermittency on riparian vegetation of a semiarid region river (San Pedro River, Arizona)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stromberg, J.C.; Bagstad, K.J.; Leenhouts, J.M.; Lite, S.J.; Makings, E.

2005-01-01

The San Pedro River in the southwestern United States retains a natural flood regime and has several reaches with perennial stream flow and shallow ground water. However, much of the river flows intermittently. Urbanization-linked declines in regional ground-water levels have raised concerns over the future status of the riverine ecosystem in some parts of the river, while restoration-linked decreases in agricultural ground-water pumping are expected to increase stream flows in other parts. This study describes the response of the streamside herbaceous vegetation to changes in stream flow permanence. During the early summer dry season, streamside herbaceous cover and species richness declined continuously across spatial gradients of flow permanence, and composition shifted from hydric to mesic species at sites with more intermittent flow. Hydrologic threshold values were evident for one plant functional group: Schoenoplectus acutus, Juncus torreyi, and other hydric riparian plants declined sharply in cover with loss of perennial stream flow. In contrast, cover of mesic riparian perennials (including Cynodon dactylon, an introduced species) increased at sites with intermittent flow. Patterns of hydric and mesic riparian annuals varied by season: in the early summer dry season their cover declined continuously as flow became more intermittent, while in the late summer wet season their cover increased as the flow became more intermittent. Periodic drought at the intermittent sites may increase opportunities for establishment of these annuals during the monsoonal flood season. During the late summer flood season, stream flow was present at most sites, and fewer vegetation traits were correlated with flow permanence; cover and richness were correlated with other environmental factors including site elevation and substrate nitrate level and particle size. Although perennial-flow and intermittent-flow sites support different streamside plant communities, all of the plant functional groups are abundant at perennial-flow sites when viewing the ecosystem at broader spatial and temporal scales: mesic riparian perennials are common in the floodplain zone adjacent to the river channel and late-summer hydric and mesic annuals are periodically abundant after large floods. Copyright ?? 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of irrigation pumpage during drought on karst aquifer systems in highly agricultural watersheds: example of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint river basin, southeastern USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mitra, Subhasis; Srivastava, Puneet; Singh, Sarmistha

2016-09-01

In the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) river basin in Alabama, Georgia, and Florida (USA), population growth in the city of Atlanta and increased groundwater withdrawal for irrigation in southwest Georgia are greatly affecting the supply of freshwater to downstream regions. This study was conducted to understand and quantify the effect of irrigation pumpage on the karst Upper Floridan Aquifer and river-aquifer interactions in the lower ACF river basin in southwest Georgia. The groundwater MODular Finite-Element model (MODFE) was used for this study. The effect of two drought years, a moderate and a severe drought year, were simulated. Comparison of the results of the irrigated and non-irrigated scenarios showed that groundwater discharge to streams is a major outflow from the aquifer, and irrigation can cause as much as 10 % change in river-aquifer flux. The results also show that during months with high irrigation (e.g., June 2011), storage loss (34 %), the recharge and discharge from the upper semi-confining unit (30 %), and the river-aquifer flux (31 %) are the major water components contributing towards the impact of irrigation pumpage in the study area. A similar scenario plays out in many river basins throughout the world, especially in basins in which underlying karst aquifers are directly connected to a nearby stream. The study suggests that improved groundwater withdrawal strategies using climate forecasts needs to be developed in such a way that excessive withdrawals during droughts can be reduced to protect streams and river flows.

Estimating thermal regimes of bull trout and assessing the potential effects of climate warming on critical habitats

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jones, Leslie A.; Muhlfeld, Clint C.; Marshall, Lucy A.; McGlynn, Brian L.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.

2013-01-01

Understanding the vulnerability of aquatic species and habitats under climate change is critical for conservation and management of freshwater systems. Climate warming is predicted to increase water temperatures in freshwater ecosystems worldwide, yet few studies have developed spatially explicit modelling tools for understanding the potential impacts. We parameterized a nonspatial model, a spatial flow-routed model, and a spatial hierarchical model to predict August stream temperatures (22-m resolution) throughout the Flathead River Basin, USA and Canada. Model comparisons showed that the spatial models performed significantly better than the nonspatial model, explaining the spatial autocorrelation found between sites. The spatial hierarchical model explained 82% of the variation in summer mean (August) stream temperatures and was used to estimate thermal regimes for threatened bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) habitats, one of the most thermally sensitive coldwater species in western North America. The model estimated summer thermal regimes of spawning and rearing habitats at <13 C° and foraging, migrating, and overwintering habitats at <14 C°. To illustrate the useful application of such a model, we simulated climate warming scenarios to quantify potential loss of critical habitats under forecasted climatic conditions. As air and water temperatures continue to increase, our model simulations show that lower portions of the Flathead River Basin drainage (foraging, migrating, and overwintering habitat) may become thermally unsuitable and headwater streams (spawning and rearing) may become isolated because of increasing thermal fragmentation during summer. Model results can be used to focus conservation and management efforts on populations of concern, by identifying critical habitats and assessing thermal changes at a local scale.

Sensitivity of intermittent streams to climate variations in the western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Eng, K.; Wolock, D.; Dettinger, M. D.

2014-12-01

There is a great deal of interest in streamflow changes caused by climate change because of the potential negative effects on aquatic biota and water supplies. Most previous studies have focused on perennial streams, and only a few studies have examined the effect of climate variability on intermittent streams. Our objective in this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of intermittent streams to historical variability in climate in the semi-arid regions of the western United States. This study was carried out at 45 intermittent streams that had a minimum of 45 years of daily-streamgage record by evaluating: (1) correlations among time series of flow metrics (number of zero-flow events, the average of the central 50% and largest 10% of flows) with climate, and (2) decadal changes in the seasonality and long-term trends of these flow metrics. Results showed strong associations between the low-flow metrics and historical changes in climate. The decadal analysis, in contrast, suggested no significant seasonal shifts or decade-to-decade trends in the low-flow metrics. The lack of trends or changes in seasonality is likely due to unchanged long-term patterns in precipitation over the time period examined.

Investigation of particle lateral migration in sample-sheath flow of viscoelastic fluid and Newtonian fluid.

PubMed

Yuan, Dan; Zhang, Jun; Yan, Sheng; Peng, Gangrou; Zhao, Qianbin; Alici, Gursel; Du, Hejun; Li, Weihua

2016-08-01

In this work, particle lateral migration in sample-sheath flow of viscoelastic fluid and Newtonian fluid was experimentally investigated. The 4.8-μm micro-particles were dispersed in a polyethylene oxide (PEO) viscoelastic solution, and then the solution was injected into a straight rectangular channel with a deionised (DI) water Newtonian sheath flow. Micro-particles suspended in PEO solution migrated laterally to a DI water stream, but migration in the opposite direction from a DI water stream to a PEO solution stream or from one DI water stream to another DI water stream could not be achieved. The lateral migration of particles depends on the viscoelastic properties of the sample fluids. Furthermore, the effects of channel length, flow rate, and PEO concentration were studied. By using viscoelastic sample flow and Newtonian sheath flow, a selective particle lateral migration can be achieved in a simple straight channel, without any external force fields. This particle lateral migration technique could be potentially used in solution exchange fields such as automated cell staining and washing in microfluidic platforms, and holds numerous biomedical applications. © 2016 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Preliminary assessment of streamflow characteristics for selected streams at Fort Gordon, Georgia, 1999-2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stamey, Timothy C.

2001-01-01

In 1999, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Signal Center and Fort Gordon, began collection of periodic streamflow data at four streams on the military base to assess and estimate streamflow characteristics of those streams for potential water-supply sources. Simple and reliable methods of determining streamflow characteristics of selected streams on the military base are needed for the initial implementation of the Fort Gordon Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan. Long-term streamflow data from the Butler Creek streamflow gaging station were used along with several concurrent discharge measurements made at three selected partial-record streamflow stations on Fort Gordon to determine selected low-flow streamflow characteristics. Streamflow data were collected and analyzed using standard U.S. Geological Survey methods and computer application programs to verify the use of simple drainage area to discharge ratios, which were used to estimate the low-flow characteristics for the selected streams. Low-flow data computed based on daily mean streamflow include: mean discharges for consecutive 1-, 3-, 7-, 14-, and 30-day period and low-flow estimates of 7Q10, 30Q2, 60Q2, and 90Q2 recurrence intervals. Flow-duration data also were determined for the 10-, 30-, 50-, 70-, and 90-percent exceedence flows. Preliminary analyses of the streamflow indicate that the flow duration and selected low-flow statistics for the selected streams averages from about 0.15 to 2.27 cubic feet per square mile. The long-term gaged streamflow data indicate that the streamflow conditions for the period analyzed were in the 50- to 90-percent flow range, or in which streamflow would be exceeded about 50 to 90 percent of the time.

Low Dimensional Study of a Supersonic Multi-Stream Jet Flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tenney, Andrew; Berry, Matthew; Aycock-Rizzo, Halley; Glauser, Mark; Lewalle, Jacques

2017-11-01

In this study, the near field of a two stream supersonic jet flow is examined using low dimensional tools. The flow issues from a multi-stream nozzle as described in A near-field investigation of a supersonic, multi-stream jet: locating turbulence mechanisms through velocity and density measurements by Magstadt et al., with the bulk flow Mach number, M1, being 1.6, and the second stream Mach number, M2, reaching the sonic condition. The flow field is visualized using Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV), with frames captured at a rate of 4Hz. Time-resolved pressure measurements are made just aft of the nozzle exit, as well as in the far-field, 86.6 nozzle hydraulic diameters away from the exit plane. The methodologies used in the analysis of this flow include Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD), and the continuous wavelet transform. The results from this ``no deck'' case are then compared to those found in the study conducted by Berry et al. From this comparison, we draw conclusions about the effects of the presence of an aft deck on the low dimensional flow description, and near field spectral content. Supported by AFOSR Grant FA9550-15-1-0435, and AFRL, through an SBIR Grant with Spectral Energies, LLC.

Rapid microfluidic mixing.

PubMed

Johnson, Timothy J; Ross, David; Locascio, Laurie E

2002-01-01

A preformed T-microchannel imprinted in polycarbonate was postmodified with a pulsed UV excimer laser (KrF, 248 nm) to create a series of slanted wells at the junction. The presence of the wells leads to a high degree of lateral transport within the channel and rapid mixing of two confluent streams undergoing electroosmotic flow. Several mixer designs were fabricated and investigated. All designs were relatively successful at low flow rates (0.06 cm/s, > or = 75% mixing), but had varying degrees of success at high flow rates (0.81 cm/s, 45-80% mixing). For example, one design operating at high flow rates was able to split an incoming fluorescent stream into two streams of varying concentrations depending on the number of slanted wells present. The final mixer design was able to overcome stream splitting at high flow rates, and it was shown that the two incoming streams were 80% mixed within 443 microm of the T-junction for a flow rate of 0.81 cm/s. Without the presence of the mixer and at the same high flow rate, a channel length of 2.3 cm would be required to achieve the same extent of mixing when relying upon molecular diffusion entirely, while 6.9 cm would be required for 99% mixing.

The Shape of the Urine Stream — From Biophysics to Diagnostics

PubMed Central

Wheeler, Andrew P. S.; Morad, Samir; Buchholz, Noor; Knight, Martin M.

2012-01-01

We develop a new computational model of capillary-waves in free-jet flows, and apply this to the problem of urological diagnosis in this first ever study of the biophysics behind the characteristic shape of the urine stream as it exits the urethral meatus. The computational fluid dynamics model is used to determine the shape of a liquid jet issuing from a non-axisymmetric orifice as it deforms under the action of surface tension. The computational results are verified with experimental modelling of the urine stream. We find that the shape of the stream can be used as an indicator of both the flow rate and orifice geometry. We performed volunteer trials which showed these fundamental correlations are also observed in vivo for male healthy volunteers and patients undergoing treatment for low flow rate. For healthy volunteers, self estimation of the flow shape provided an accurate estimation of peak flow rate (). However for the patients, the relationship between shape and flow rate suggested poor meatal opening during voiding. The results show that self measurement of the shape of the urine stream can be a useful diagnostic tool for medical practitioners since it provides a non-invasive method of measuring urine flow rate and urethral dilation. PMID:23091609

Streaming driven by sessile microbubbles: Explaining flow patterns and frequency response

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rallabandi, Bhargav; Wang, Cheng; Guo, Lin; Hilgenfeldt, Sascha

2013-11-01

Ultrasound excitation of bubbles drives powerful steady streaming flows which have found widespread applications in microfluidics, where bubbles are typically of semicircular cross section and attached to walls of the device (sessile). While bubble-driven streaming in bulk fluid is well understood, this practically relevant case presents additional complexity introduced by the wall and contact lines. We develop an asymptotic theory that takes into account the presence of the wall as well as the oscillation dynamics of the bubble, providing a complete description of the streaming flow as a function only of the driving frequency, the bubble size, and the physical properties of the fluid. We show that the coupling between different bubble oscillation modes sustains the experimentally observed streaming flow vortex pattern over a broad range of frequencies, greatly exceeding the widths of individual mode resonances. Above a threshold frequency, we predict, and observe in experiment, reversal of the flow direction. Our analytical theory can be used to guide the design of microfluidic devices, both in situations where robust flow patterns insensitive to parameter changes are desired (e.g. lab-on-a-chip sorters), and in cases where intentional modulation of the flow field appearance is key (e.g. efficient mixers). Current address: Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Missouri University of Science and Technology.

Assessing the impacts of climate change and tillage practices on stream flow, crop and sediment yields from the Mississippi River Basin

Treesearch

P.B. Parajuli; P. Jayakody; G.F. Sassenrath; Y. Ouyang

2016-01-01

This study evaluated climate change impacts on stream flow, crop and sediment yields from three differ-ent tillage systems (conventional, reduced 1–close to conservation, and reduced 2–close to no-till), in theBig Sunflower River Watershed (BSRW) in Mississippi. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modelwas applied to the BSRW using observed stream flow and crop...

Estimating selected low-flow frequency statistics and harmonic-mean flows for ungaged, unregulated streams in Indiana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Gary R.; Fowler, Kathleen K.; Arihood, Leslie D.

2016-09-06

Information on low-flow characteristics of streams is essential for the management of water resources. This report provides equations for estimating the 1-, 7-, and 30-day mean low flows for a recurrence interval of 10 years and the harmonic-mean flow at ungaged, unregulated stream sites in Indiana. These equations were developed using the low-flow statistics and basin characteristics for 108 continuous-record streamgages in Indiana with at least 10 years of daily mean streamflow data through the 2011 climate year (April 1 through March 31). The equations were developed in cooperation with the Indiana Department of Environmental Management.Regression techniques were used to develop the equations for estimating low-flow frequency statistics and the harmonic-mean flows on the basis of drainage-basin characteristics. A geographic information system was used to measure basin characteristics for selected streamgages. A final set of 25 basin characteristics measured at all the streamgages were evaluated to choose the best predictors of the low-flow statistics.Logistic-regression equations applicable statewide are presented for estimating the probability that selected low-flow frequency statistics equal zero. These equations use the explanatory variables total drainage area, average transmissivity of the full thickness of the unconsolidated deposits within 1,000 feet of the stream network, and latitude of the basin outlet. The percentage of the streamgage low-flow statistics correctly classified as zero or nonzero using the logistic-regression equations ranged from 86.1 to 88.9 percent.Generalized-least-squares regression equations applicable statewide for estimating nonzero low-flow frequency statistics use total drainage area, the average hydraulic conductivity of the top 70 feet of unconsolidated deposits, the slope of the basin, and the index of permeability and thickness of the Quaternary surficial sediments as explanatory variables. The average standard error of prediction of these regression equations ranges from 55.7 to 61.5 percent.Regional weighted-least-squares regression equations were developed for estimating the harmonic-mean flows by dividing the State into three low-flow regions. The Northern region uses total drainage area and the average transmissivity of the entire thickness of unconsolidated deposits as explanatory variables. The Central region uses total drainage area, the average hydraulic conductivity of the entire thickness of unconsolidated deposits, and the index of permeability and thickness of the Quaternary surficial sediments. The Southern region uses total drainage area and the percent of the basin covered by forest. The average standard error of prediction for these equations ranges from 39.3 to 66.7 percent.The regional regression equations are applicable only to stream sites with low flows unaffected by regulation and to stream sites with drainage basin characteristic values within specified limits. Caution is advised when applying the equations for basins with characteristics near the applicable limits and for basins with karst drainage features and for urbanized basins. Extrapolations near and beyond the applicable basin characteristic limits will have unknown errors that may be large. Equations are presented for use in estimating the 90-percent prediction interval of the low-flow statistics estimated by use of the regression equations at a given stream site.The regression equations are to be incorporated into the U.S. Geological Survey StreamStats Web-based application for Indiana. StreamStats allows users to select a stream site on a map and automatically measure the needed basin characteristics and compute the estimated low-flow statistics and associated prediction intervals.

Contributions of Phosphorus from Groundwater to Streams in the Piedmont, Blue Ridge, and Valley and Ridge Physiographic Provinces, Eastern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Denver, Judith M.; Cravotta,, Charles A.; Ator, Scott W.; Lindsey, Bruce D.

2011-01-01

Phosphorus from natural and human sources is likely to be discharged from groundwater to streams in certain geochemical environments. Water-quality data collected from 1991 through 2007 in paired networks of groundwater and streams in different hydrogeologic and land-use settings of the Piedmont, Blue Ridge, and Valley and Ridge Physiographic Provinces in the eastern United States were compiled and analyzed to evaluate the sources, fate, and transport of phosphorus. The median concentrations of phosphate in groundwater from the crystalline and siliciclastic bedrock settings (0.017 and 0.020 milligrams per liter, respectively) generally were greater than the median for the carbonate setting (less than 0.01 milligrams per liter). In contrast, the median concentrations of dissolved phosphate in stream base flow from the crystalline and siliciclastic bedrock settings (0.010 and 0.014 milligrams per liter, respectively) were less than the median concentration for base-flow samples from the carbonate setting (0.020 milligrams per liter). Concentrations of phosphorus in many of the stream base-flow and groundwater samples exceeded ecological criteria for streams in the region. Mineral dissolution was identified as the dominant source of phosphorus in the groundwater and stream base flow draining crystalline or siliciclastic bedrock in the study area. Low concentrations of dissolved phosphorus in groundwater from carbonate bedrock result from the precipitation of minerals and (or) from sorption to mineral surfaces along groundwater flow paths. Phosphorus concentrations are commonly elevated in stream base flow in areas underlain by carbonate bedrock, however, presumably derived from in-stream sources or from upland anthropogenic sources and transported along short, shallow groundwater flow paths. Dissolved phosphate concentrations in groundwater were correlated positively with concentrations of silica and sodium, and negatively with alkalinity and concentrations of calcium, magnesium, chloride, nitrate, sulfate, iron, and aluminum. These associations can result from the dissolution of alkali feldspars containing phosphorus; the precipitation of apatite; the precipitation of calcite, iron hydroxide, and aluminum hydroxide with associated sorption of phosphate ions; and the potential for release of phosphate from iron-hydroxide and other iron minerals under reducing conditions. Anthropogenic sources of phosphate such as fertilizer and manure and processes such as biological uptake, evapotranspiration, and dilution also affect phosphorus concentrations. The phosphate concentrations in surface water were not correlated with the silica concentration, but were positively correlated with concentrations of major cations and anions, including chloride and nitrate, which could indicate anthropogenic sources and effects of evapotranspiration on surface-water quality. Mixing of older, mineralized groundwater with younger, less mineralized, but contaminated groundwater was identified as a critical factor affecting the quality of stream base flow. In-stream processing of nutrients by biological processes also likely increases the phosphorus concentration in surface waters. Potential geologic contributions of phosphorus to groundwater and streams may be an important watershed-management consideration in certain hydrogeologic and geochemical environments. Geochemical controls effectively limit phosphorus transport through groundwater to streams in areas underlain by carbonate rocks; however, in crystalline and siliciclastic settings, phosphorus from mineral or human sources may be effectively transported by groundwater and contribute a substantial fraction to base-flow stream loads.

METHOD OF CENTRIFUGE OPERATION

DOEpatents

Cohen, K.

1960-05-10

A method of isotope separation is described in which two streams are flowed axially of, and countercurrently through, a cylindrical centrifuge bowl. Under the influence of a centrifugal field, the light fraction is concentrated in a stream flowing through the central portion of the bowl, whereas the heavy fraction is concentrated in a stream at the periphery thereof.

40 CFR 63.11940 - What continuous monitoring requirements must I meet for control devices required to install CPMS...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

... non-vacuum regeneration systems, an integrating regeneration stream flow monitoring device having an accuracy of ±10 percent, capable of recording the total regeneration stream mass for each regeneration cycle. For non-vacuum regeneration systems, an integrating regeneration stream flow monitoring device...

40 CFR 63.11940 - What continuous monitoring requirements must I meet for control devices required to install CPMS...

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

... non-vacuum regeneration systems, an integrating regeneration stream flow monitoring device having an accuracy of ±10 percent, capable of recording the total regeneration stream mass for each regeneration cycle. For non-vacuum regeneration systems, an integrating regeneration stream flow monitoring device...

Efficient gas-separation process to upgrade dilute methane stream for use as fuel

DOEpatents

Wijmans, Johannes G [Menlo Park, CA; Merkel, Timothy C [Menlo Park, CA; Lin, Haiqing [Mountain View, CA; Thompson, Scott [Brecksville, OH; Daniels, Ramin [San Jose, CA

2012-03-06

A membrane-based gas separation process for treating gas streams that contain methane in low concentrations. The invention involves flowing the stream to be treated across the feed side of a membrane and flowing a sweep gas stream, usually air, across the permeate side. Carbon dioxide permeates the membrane preferentially and is picked up in the sweep air stream on the permeate side; oxygen permeates in the other direction and is picked up in the methane-containing stream. The resulting residue stream is enriched in methane as well as oxygen and has an EMC value enabling it to be either flared or combusted by mixing with ordinary air.

Problems with indirect determinations of peak streamflows in steep, desert stream channels

USGS Publications Warehouse

Glancy, Patrick A.; Williams, Rhea P.

1994-01-01

Many peak streamflow values used in flood analyses for desert areas are derived using the Manning equation. Data used in the equation are collected after the flow has subsided, and peak flow is thereby determined indirectly. Most measurement problems and associated errors in peak-flow determinations result from (1) channel erosion or deposition that cannot be discerned or properly evaluated after the fact, (2) unsteady and non-uniform flow that rapidly changes in magnitude, and (3) appreciable sediment transport that has unknown effects on energy dissipation. High calculated velocities and Froude numbers are unacceptable to some investigators. Measurement results could be improved by recording flows with a video camera, installing a recording stream gage and recording rain gages, measuring channel scour with buried chains, analyzing measured data by multiple techniques, and supplementing indirect measurements with direct measurements of stream velocities in similar ephemeral streams.

Discrete simulations of spatio-temporal dynamics of small water bodies under varied stream flow discharges

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daya Sagar, B. S.

2005-01-01

Spatio-temporal patterns of small water bodies (SWBs) under the influence of temporally varied stream flow discharge are simulated in discrete space by employing geomorphologically realistic expansion and contraction transformations. Cascades of expansion-contraction are systematically performed by synchronizing them with stream flow discharge simulated via the logistic map. Templates with definite characteristic information are defined from stream flow discharge pattern as the basis to model the spatio-temporal organization of randomly situated surface water bodies of various sizes and shapes. These spatio-temporal patterns under varied parameters (λs) controlling stream flow discharge patterns are characterized by estimating their fractal dimensions. At various λs, nonlinear control parameters, we show the union of boundaries of water bodies that traverse the water body and non-water body spaces as geomorphic attractors. The computed fractal dimensions of these attractors are 1.58, 1.53, 1.78, 1.76, 1.84, and 1.90, respectively, at λs of 1, 2, 3, 3.46, 3.57, and 3.99. These values are in line with general visual observations.

Low-flow characteristics of Indiana streams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fowler, K.K.; Wilson, J.T.

1996-01-01

Knowledge of low-flow characteristics of streams is essential for management of water resources. Low-flow characteristics are presented for 229 continuous-record, streamflow-gaging stations and 285 partial-record stations in Indiana. Low- flow-frequency characteristics were computed for 210 continuous-record stations that had at least 10 years of record, and flow-duration curves were computed for all continuous-record stations. Low-flow-frequency and flow-duration analyses are based on available streamflow records through September 1993. Selected low-flow-frequency curves were computed for annual low flows and seasonal low flows. The four seasons are represented by the 3-month groups of March-May, June-August, September-November, and December- February. The 7-day, 10-year and the 7-day, 2 year low flows were estimated for 285 partial-record stations, which are ungaged sites where streamflow measurements were made at base flow. The same low-flow characteristics were estimated for 19 continuous-record stations where less than 10 years of record were available. Precipitation and geology directly influence the streams in Indiana. Streams in the northern, glaciated part of the State tend to have higher sustained base flows than those in the nonglaciated southern part. Flow at several of the continuous-record gaging stations is affected by some form of regulation or diversion. Low-flow characteristics for continuous-record stations at which flow is affected by regulation are determined using the period of record affected by regulation; natural flows prior to regulation are not used.

Reactivation of Kamb Ice Stream tributaries triggers century-scale reorganization of Siple Coast ice flow in West Antarctica

DOE PAGES

Bougamont, M.; Christoffersen, P.; Price, S. F.; ...

2015-10-21

Ongoing, centennial-scale flow variability within the Ross ice streams of West Antarctica suggests that the present-day positive mass balance in this region may reverse in the future. Here we use a three-dimensional ice sheet model to simulate ice flow in this region over 250 years. The flow responds to changing basal properties, as a subglacial till layer interacts with water transported in an active subglacial hydrological system. We show that a persistent weak bed beneath the tributaries of the dormant Kamb Ice Stream is a source of internal ice flow instability, which reorganizes all ice streams in this region, leadingmore » to a reduced (positive) mass balance within decades and a net loss of ice within two centuries. This hitherto unaccounted for flow variability could raise sea level by 5 mm this century. Furthermore, better constraints on future sea level change from this region will require improved estimates of geothermal heat flux and subglacial water transport.« less

Modeled hydrologic metrics show links between hydrology and the functional composition of stream assemblages.

PubMed

Patrick, Christopher J; Yuan, Lester L

2017-07-01

Flow alteration is widespread in streams, but current understanding of the effects of differences in flow characteristics on stream biological communities is incomplete. We tested hypotheses about the effect of variation in hydrology on stream communities by using generalized additive models to relate watershed information to the values of different flow metrics at gauged sites. Flow models accounted for 54-80% of the spatial variation in flow metric values among gauged sites. We then used these models to predict flow metrics in 842 ungauged stream sites in the mid-Atlantic United States that were sampled for fish, macroinvertebrates, and environmental covariates. Fish and macroinvertebrate assemblages were characterized in terms of a suite of metrics that quantified aspects of community composition, diversity, and functional traits that were expected to be associated with differences in flow characteristics. We related modeled flow metrics to biological metrics in a series of stressor-response models. Our analyses identified both drying and base flow instability as explaining 30-50% of the observed variability in fish and invertebrate community composition. Variations in community composition were related to variations in the prevalence of dispersal traits in invertebrates and trophic guilds in fish. The results demonstrate that we can use statistical models to predict hydrologic conditions at bioassessment sites, which, in turn, we can use to estimate relationships between flow conditions and biological characteristics. This analysis provides an approach to quantify the effects of spatial variation in flow metrics using readily available biomonitoring data. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Adapting National Water Model Forecast Data to Local Hyper-Resolution H&H Models During Hurricane Irma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singhofen, P.

2017-12-01

The National Water Model (NWM) is a remarkable undertaking. The foundation of the NWM is a 1 square kilometer grid which is used for near real-time modeling and flood forecasting of most rivers and streams in the contiguous United States. However, the NWM falls short in highly urbanized areas with complex drainage infrastructure. To overcome these shortcomings, the presenter proposes to leverage existing local hyper-resolution H&H models and adapt the NWM forcing data to them. Gridded near real-time rainfall, short range forecasts (18-hour) and medium range forecasts (10-day) during Hurricane Irma are applied to numerous detailed H&H models in highly urbanized areas of the State of Florida. Coastal and inland models are evaluated. Comparisons of near real-time rainfall data are made with observed gaged data and the ability to predict flooding in advance based on forecast data is evaluated. Preliminary findings indicate that the near real-time rainfall data is consistently and significantly lower than observed data. The forecast data is more promising. For example, the medium range forecast data provides 2 - 3 days advanced notice of peak flood conditions to a reasonable level of accuracy in most cases relative to both timing and magnitude. Short range forecast data provides about 12 - 14 hours advanced notice. Since these are hyper-resolution models, flood forecasts can be made at the street level, providing emergency response teams with valuable information for coordinating and dispatching limited resources.

Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast.

PubMed

Moran, Kelly R; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; Hickmann, Kyle; Osthus, Dave; Priedhorsky, Reid; Hyman, James; Del Valle, Sara Y

2016-12-01

Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. We conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

Estimates of Flow Duration, Mean Flow, and Peak-Discharge Frequency Values for Kansas Stream Locations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Perry, Charles A.; Wolock, David M.; Artman, Joshua C.

2004-01-01

Streamflow statistics of flow duration and peak-discharge frequency were estimated for 4,771 individual locations on streams listed on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register. These statistics included the flow-duration values of 90, 75, 50, 25, and 10 percent, as well as the mean flow value. Peak-discharge frequency values were estimated for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods. Least-squares multiple regression techniques were used, along with Tobit analyses, to develop equations for estimating flow-duration values of 90, 75, 50, 25, and 10 percent and the mean flow for uncontrolled flow stream locations. The contributing-drainage areas of 149 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging stations in Kansas and parts of surrounding States that had flow uncontrolled by Federal reservoirs and used in the regression analyses ranged from 2.06 to 12,004 square miles. Logarithmic transformations of climatic and basin data were performed to yield the best linear relation for developing equations to compute flow durations and mean flow. In the regression analyses, the significant climatic and basin characteristics, in order of importance, were contributing-drainage area, mean annual precipitation, mean basin permeability, and mean basin slope. The analyses yielded a model standard error of prediction range of 0.43 logarithmic units for the 90-percent duration analysis to 0.15 logarithmic units for the 10-percent duration analysis. The model standard error of prediction was 0.14 logarithmic units for the mean flow. Regression equations used to estimate peak-discharge frequency values were obtained from a previous report, and estimates for the 2-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, and 100-year floods were determined for this report. The regression equations and an interpolation procedure were used to compute flow durations, mean flow, and estimates of peak-discharge frequency for locations along uncontrolled flow streams on the 1999 Kansas Surface Water Register. Flow durations, mean flow, and peak-discharge frequency values determined at available gaging stations were used to interpolate the regression-estimated flows for the stream locations where available. Streamflow statistics for locations that had uncontrolled flow were interpolated using data from gaging stations weighted according to the drainage area and the bias between the regression-estimated and gaged flow information. On controlled reaches of Kansas streams, the streamflow statistics were interpolated between gaging stations using only gaged data weighted by drainage area.

Viscosity changes of riparian water controls diurnal fluctuations of stream-flow and DOC concentration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schwab, Michael; Klaus, Julian; Pfister, Laurent; Weiler, Markus

2015-04-01

Diurnal fluctuations in stream-flow are commonly explained as being triggered by the daily evapotranspiration cycle in the riparian zone, leading to stream flow minima in the afternoon. While this trigger effect must necessarily be constrained by the extent of the growing season of vegetation, we here show evidence of daily stream flow maxima in the afternoon in a small headwater stream during the dormant season. We hypothesize that the afternoon maxima in stream flow are induced by viscosity changes of riparian water that is caused by diurnal temperature variations of the near surface groundwater in the riparian zone. The patterns were observed in the Weierbach headwater catchment in Luxembourg. The catchment is covering an area of 0.45 km2, is entirely covered by forest and is dominated by a schistous substratum. DOC concentration at the outlet of the catchment was measured with the field deployable UV-Vis spectrometer spectro::lyser (scan Messtechnik GmbH) with a high frequency of 15 minutes over several months. Discharge was measured with an ISCO 4120 Flow Logger. During the growing season, stream flow shows a frequently observed diurnal pattern with discharge minima in the afternoon. During the dormant season, a long dry period with daily air temperature amplitudes of around 10 ° C occurred in March and April 2014, with discharge maxima in the afternoon. The daily air temperature amplitude led to diurnal variations in the water temperature of the upper 10 cm of the riparian zone. Higher riparian water temperatures cause a decrease in water viscosity and according to the Hagen-Poiseuille equation, the volumetric flow rate is inversely proportional to viscosity. Based on the Hagen-Poiseuille equation and the viscosity changes of water, we calculated higher flow rates of near surface groundwater through the riparian zone into the stream in the afternoon which explains the stream flow maxima in the afternoon. With the start of the growing season, the viscosity induced diurnal effect is overlain by the stronger influence of evapotranspiration. Diurnal DOC fluctuations show daily maxima in the afternoon. While daily variations in DOC concentrations are often explained by faster in-stream biogeochemical processes during daylight, we here propose that the viscosity effect in the riparian zone could explain the afternoon peaks in DOC concentrations. Our records show that daily water temperature variations and therefore viscosity changes only occur in the near surface parts of the riparian zone, where the DOC concentrations are higher than in deeper parts of the riparian zone. We calculated, that the viscosity induced higher flow rates from the near surface parts of the riparian zone can explain the DOC concentration maxima in the afternoon. As the viscosity effect does not disappear during the growing season but is just smaller than the evapotranspiration effect, the DOC concentration pattern is not changing between the dormant and growing seasons. The different controls of diurnal fluctuations of stream-flow and water quality concentrations need to be carefully considered in order to better understand the different patterns in catchment hydrology.