Disruptions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections by the Madden–Julian Oscillation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hoell, Andrew; Barlow, Mathew; Wheeler, Mathew; Funk, Christopher C.

2014-01-01

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual variability, with global impacts on weather and climate that have seasonal predictability. Research on the link between interannual ENSO variability and the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), has focused mainly on the role of MJO initiating or terminating ENSO. We use observational analysis and modeling to show that the MJO has an important simultaneous link to ENSO: strong MJO activity significantly weakens the atmospheric branch of ENSO. For weak MJO conditions relative to strong MJO conditions, the average magnitude of ENSO-associated tropical precipitation anomalies increases by 63%, and the strength of hemispheric teleconnections increases by 58%. Since the MJO has predictability beyond three weeks, the relationships shown here suggest that there may be subseasonal predictability of the ENSO teleconnections to continental circulation and precipitation.

Radiative effects of interannually varying vs. interannually invariant aerosol emissions from fires

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Grandey, Benjamin S.; Lee, Hsiang-He; Wang, Chien

Open-burning fires play an important role in the earth's climate system. In addition to contributing a substantial fraction of global emissions of carbon dioxide, they are a major source of atmospheric aerosols containing organic carbon, black carbon, and sulfate. These “fire aerosols” can influence the climate via direct and indirect radiative effects. In this study, we investigate these radiative effects and the hydrological fast response using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Emissions of fire aerosols exert a global mean net radiative effect of −1.0 W m −2, dominated by the cloud shortwave response to organic carbon aerosol. The net radiative effectmore » is particularly strong over boreal regions. Conventionally, many climate modelling studies have used an interannually invariant monthly climatology of emissions of fire aerosols. However, by comparing simulations using interannually varying emissions vs. interannually invariant emissions, we find that ignoring the interannual variability of the emissions can lead to systematic overestimation of the strength of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols. Globally, the overestimation is +23 % (−0.2 W m −2). Regionally, the overestimation can be substantially larger. For example, over Australia and New Zealand the overestimation is +58 % (−1.2 W m −2), while over Boreal Asia the overestimation is +43 % (−1.9 W m −2). The systematic overestimation of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols is likely due to the non-linear influence of aerosols on clouds. However, ignoring interannual variability in the emissions does not appear to significantly impact the hydrological fast response. In order to improve understanding of the climate system, we need to take into account the interannual variability of aerosol emissions.« less

Radiative effects of interannually varying vs. interannually invariant aerosol emissions from fires

DOE PAGES

Grandey, Benjamin S.; Lee, Hsiang-He; Wang, Chien

2016-11-23

Open-burning fires play an important role in the earth's climate system. In addition to contributing a substantial fraction of global emissions of carbon dioxide, they are a major source of atmospheric aerosols containing organic carbon, black carbon, and sulfate. These “fire aerosols” can influence the climate via direct and indirect radiative effects. In this study, we investigate these radiative effects and the hydrological fast response using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5). Emissions of fire aerosols exert a global mean net radiative effect of −1.0 W m −2, dominated by the cloud shortwave response to organic carbon aerosol. The net radiative effectmore » is particularly strong over boreal regions. Conventionally, many climate modelling studies have used an interannually invariant monthly climatology of emissions of fire aerosols. However, by comparing simulations using interannually varying emissions vs. interannually invariant emissions, we find that ignoring the interannual variability of the emissions can lead to systematic overestimation of the strength of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols. Globally, the overestimation is +23 % (−0.2 W m −2). Regionally, the overestimation can be substantially larger. For example, over Australia and New Zealand the overestimation is +58 % (−1.2 W m −2), while over Boreal Asia the overestimation is +43 % (−1.9 W m −2). The systematic overestimation of the net radiative effect of the fire aerosols is likely due to the non-linear influence of aerosols on clouds. However, ignoring interannual variability in the emissions does not appear to significantly impact the hydrological fast response. In order to improve understanding of the climate system, we need to take into account the interannual variability of aerosol emissions.« less

Interannual rainfall variability and SOM-based circulation classification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolski, Piotr; Jack, Christopher; Tadross, Mark; van Aardenne, Lisa; Lennard, Christopher

2018-01-01

Self-Organizing Maps (SOM) based classifications of synoptic circulation patterns are increasingly being used to interpret large-scale drivers of local climate variability, and as part of statistical downscaling methodologies. These applications rely on a basic premise of synoptic climatology, i.e. that local weather is conditioned by the large-scale circulation. While it is clear that this relationship holds in principle, the implications of its implementation through SOM-based classification, particularly at interannual and longer time scales, are not well recognized. Here we use a SOM to understand the interannual synoptic drivers of climate variability at two locations in the winter and summer rainfall regimes of South Africa. We quantify the portion of variance in seasonal rainfall totals that is explained by year to year differences in the synoptic circulation, as schematized by a SOM. We furthermore test how different spatial domain sizes and synoptic variables affect the ability of the SOM to capture the dominant synoptic drivers of interannual rainfall variability. Additionally, we identify systematic synoptic forcing that is not captured by the SOM classification. The results indicate that the frequency of synoptic states, as schematized by a relatively disaggregated SOM (7 × 9) of prognostic atmospheric variables, including specific humidity, air temperature and geostrophic winds, captures only 20-45% of interannual local rainfall variability, and that the residual variance contains a strong systematic component. Utilising a multivariate linear regression framework demonstrates that this residual variance can largely be explained using synoptic variables over a particular location; even though they are used in the development of the SOM their influence, however, diminishes with the size of the SOM spatial domain. The influence of the SOM domain size, the choice of SOM atmospheric variables and grid-point explanatory variables on the levels of explained variance, is consistent with the general understanding of the dominant processes and atmospheric variables that affect rainfall variability at a particular location.

North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Cayan, D.R.; Diaz, Henry F.; Meko, D.M.

1998-01-01

The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation variations in the southern parts of western North America and are closely related to the first EOF. Central latitude of precipitation moves south (north) with tropical warming (cooling) in association with midlatitude western Pacific SLP variations, on both interannual and decadal timescales. Regional patterns and zonal averages of precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series are used to corroborate these patterns and to extend them into the past and appear to share much long- and short-term information with the instrumentally based zonal precipitation EOFs and moments.The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25?? to 55 ??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both tim

Seasonal and interannual variability of surface CDOM in the South China Sea associated with El Niño

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ma, Jinfeng; Zhan, Haigang; Du, Yan

2011-04-01

Satellite imagery of SeaWiFS from October 1997 to November 2007 is used to investigate the dominant seasonal and interannual variations of the surface light absorption due to Colored Dissolved Organic Materials (CDOM) in the South China Sea (SCS). Results show that the spatial distribution of CDOM mimics the major features of the SCS basin-scale circulation. High values of CDOM are found in upwelling regions like southeast of Vietnam in summer and northwest of Luzon in winter. At a basin scale, CDOM is high in winter when upwelling is strong, solar shortwave radiation and stratification weak, and vertical mixing intense. Opposite conditions exist in spring and summer. Interannual variability of the basin-wide CDOM is characterized by abnormal troughs during the El Niño events. A strong relationship exists between the time series of the first EOF mode (for both winter and summer) and Niño 3.4 Index. Associations of these events with climatic and hydrographic properties (i.e. wind forcing, solar shortwave radiation, Ekman pumping, vertical mixing, sea surface height and temperature) are discussed.

How potentially predictable are midlatitude ocean currents?

PubMed Central

Nonaka, Masami; Sasai, Yoshikazu; Sasaki, Hideharu; Taguchi, Bunmei; Nakamura, Hisashi

2016-01-01

Predictability of atmospheric variability is known to be limited owing to significant uncertainty that arises from intrinsic variability generated independently of external forcing and/or boundary conditions. Observed atmospheric variability is therefore regarded as just a single realization among different dynamical states that could occur. In contrast, subject to wind, thermal and fresh-water forcing at the surface, the ocean circulation has been considered to be rather deterministic under the prescribed atmospheric forcing, and it still remains unknown how uncertain the upper-ocean circulation variability is. This study evaluates how much uncertainty the oceanic interannual variability can potentially have, through multiple simulations with an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model driven by the observed interannually-varying atmospheric forcing under slightly different conditions. These ensemble “hindcast” experiments have revealed substantial uncertainty due to intrinsic variability in the extratropical ocean circulation that limits potential predictability of its interannual variability, especially along the strong western boundary currents (WBCs) in mid-latitudes, including the Kuroshio and its eastward extention. The intrinsic variability also greatly limits potential predictability of meso-scale oceanic eddy activity. These findings suggest that multi-member ensemble simulations are essential for understanding and predicting variability in the WBCs, which are important for weather and climate variability and marine ecosystems. PMID:26831954

The predicted CLARREO sampling error of the inter-annual SW variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doelling, D. R.; Keyes, D. F.; Nguyen, C.; Macdonnell, D.; Young, D. F.

2009-12-01

The NRC Decadal Survey has called for SI traceability of long-term hyper-spectral flux measurements in order to monitor climate variability. This mission is called the Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory (CLARREO) and is currently defining its mission requirements. The requirements are focused on the ability to measure decadal change of key climate variables at very high accuracy. The accuracy goals are set using anticipated climate change magnitudes, but the accuracy achieved for any given climate variable must take into account the temporal and spatial sampling errors based on satellite orbits and calibration accuracy. The time period to detect a significant trend in the CLARREO record depends on the magnitude of the sampling calibration errors relative to the current inter-annual variability. The largest uncertainty in climate feedbacks remains the effect of changing clouds on planetary energy balance. Some regions on earth have strong diurnal cycles, such as maritime stratus and afternoon land convection; other regions have strong seasonal cycles, such as the monsoon. However, when monitoring inter-annual variability these cycles are only important if the strength of these cycles vary on decadal time scales. This study will attempt to determine the best satellite constellations to reduce sampling error and to compare the error with the current inter-annual variability signal to ensure the viability of the mission. The study will incorporate Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) (Monthly TOA/Surface Averages) SRBAVG product TOA LW and SW climate quality fluxes. The fluxes are derived by combining Terra (10:30 local equator crossing time) CERES fluxes with 3-hourly 5-geostationary satellite estimated broadband fluxes, which are normalized using the CERES fluxes, to complete the diurnal cycle. These fluxes were saved hourly during processing and considered the truth dataset. 90°, 83° and 74° inclination precessionary orbits as well as sun-synchronous orbits will be evaluated. This study will focus on the SW radiance, since these low earth orbits are only in daylight for half the orbit. The precessionary orbits were designed to cycle through all solar zenith angles over the course of a year. The inter-annual variability sampling error will be stratified globally/zonally and annually/seasonally and compared with the corresponding truth anomalies.

Monsoon-driven variability in the southern Red Sea and the exchange with the Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, S. S.; Papadopoulos, V. P.; Abualnaja, Y.; Nenes, A.; Hoteit, I.

2016-02-01

Although progress has been achieved in describing and understanding the mean state and seasonal cycle of the Red Sea dynamics, their interannual variability is not yet well evaluated and explained. The thermohaline characteristics and the circulation patterns present strong variability at various time scales and are affected by the strong and variable atmospheric forcing and the exchange with the Indian Ocean and the gulfs located at the northern end of the basin. Sea surface temperature time-series, derived from satellite observations, show considerable trends and interannual variations. The spatial variability pattern is very diverse, especially in the north-south direction. The southern part of the Red Sea is significantly influenced by the Indian Monsoon variability that affects the sea surface temperature through the surface fluxes and the circulation patterns. This variability has also a strong impact on the lateral fluxes and the exchange with the Indian Ocean through the strait of Bab el Mandeb. During summer, there is a reversal of the surface flow and an intermediate intrusion of a relatively cold and fresh water mass. This water originates from the Gulf of Aden (the Gulf of Aden Intermediate Water - GAIW), is identified in the southern part of the basin and spreads northward along the eastern Red Sea boundary to approximately 24°N and carried across the Red Sea by basin-size eddies. The GAIW intrusion plays an important role in the heat and freshwater budget of the southern Red Sea, especially in summer, impacting the thermohaline characteristics of the region. It is a permanent feature of the summer exchange flow but it exhibits significant variation from year to year. The intrusion is controlled by a monsoon-driven pressure gradient in the two ends of the strait and thus monsoon interannual variability can laterally impose its signal to the southern Red Sea thermohaline patterns.

Linkages Between Terrestrial Carbon Uptake and Interannual Climate Variability over the Texas-northern Mexico High Plains

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parazoo, N.; Barnes, E. A.; Worden, J.; Harper, A. B.; Bowman, K. W.; Frankenberg, C.

2014-12-01

The Texas-northern Mexico high plains experienced record drought conditions in 2011 during strong negative phases of ENSO and the NAO. Given predictions of increased frequency and severity of drought under projected climate change [e.g., Reichstein et al., 2013] and recent findings of CO2 growth rate sensitivity to interannual variability of carbon uptake in semi-arid ecosystems [Poulter et al., 2014], we investigate the response of carbon uptake in the Texas high plains to interannual climate variability with the goal of improved mechanistic understanding of climate-carbon cycle links. Specifically, we examine (1) observed tendencies in regional scale carbon uptake and soil moisture from 2010 to 2011 using satellite observations of gross primary production (GPP) (from plant fluorescence) from GOSAT and soil moisture from SMOS, and (2) the interannual relationship between GPP and ENSO & NAO variability using terrestrial biosphere simulations from 1950-2012. Observations reveal widespread decline of GPP in 2011 (0.42 +/- 0.04 Pg C yr-1) correlated with negative soil moisture tendencies (r = 0.85 +/- 0.21) which leads to corresponding declines in net carbon uptake and transpiration (according to model simulations). Further examination of model results over the period 1950-2012 indicates that negative GPP anomalies are linked systematically to winter and spring precipitation deficits associated with overlapping negative phases of winter NAO and ENSO, with increasing magnitude of negative anomalies in strong La Niña years. Furthermore, the strongest decline of GPP, carbon uptake, and transpiration on record occurred during the 2011 drought and were associated with extreme negative phases of ENSO and NAO, with 2011 being the only year since 1950 that both indices exceeded 1 σ standard deviation.

Observed variability in the upper layers at the Equator, 90°E in the Indian Ocean during 2001-2008, 1: zonal currents

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, R. R.; Horii, T.; Masumoto, Y.; Mizuno, K.

2017-08-01

The observed variability of zonal currents (ZC) at the Equator, 90°E shows a strong seasonal cycle in the near-surface 40-350 m water column with periodic east-west reversals most pronounced at semiannual frequency. Superposed on this, a strong intraseasonal variability of 30-90 day periodicity is also prominently seen in the near-surface layer (40-80 m) almost throughout the year with the only exception of February-March. An eastward flowing equatorial undercurrent (EUC) is present in the depth range of 80-160 m during March-April and October-November. The observed intraseasonal variability in the near-surface layer is primarily determined by the equatorial zonal westerly wind bursts (WWBs) through local frictional coupling between the zonal flow in the surface layer and surface zonal winds and shows large interannual variability. The eastward flowing EUC maintained by the ZPG set up by the east-west slope of the thermocline remotely controlled by the zonal wind (ZW) and zonally propagating wave fields also shows significant interannual variability. This observed variability on interannual time scales appears to be controlled by the corresponding variability in the alongshore winds off the Somalia coast during the preceding boreal winter, the ZW field along the equator, and the associated zonally propagating Kelvin and Rossby waves. The salinity induced vertical stratification observed in the near-surface layer through barrier layer thickness (BLT) effects also shows a significant influence on the ZC field on intraseasonal time scale. Interestingly, among all the 8 years (2001-2008), relatively weaker annual cycle is seen in both ZC in the 40-350 m water column and boreal spring sea surface temperature (SST) only during 2001 and 2008 along the equator caused through propagating wave dynamics.

Alleviating tropical Atlantic sector biases in the Kiel climate model by enhancing horizontal and vertical atmosphere model resolution: climatology and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harlaß, Jan; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun

2018-04-01

We investigate the quality of simulating tropical Atlantic (TA) sector climatology and interannual variability in integrations of the Kiel climate model (KCM) with varying atmosphere model resolution. The ocean model resolution is kept fixed. A reasonable simulation of TA sector annual-mean climate, seasonal cycle and interannual variability can only be achieved at sufficiently high horizontal and vertical atmospheric resolution. Two major reasons for the improvements are identified. First, the western equatorial Atlantic westerly surface wind bias in spring can be largely eliminated, which is explained by a better representation of meridional and especially vertical zonal momentum transport. The enhanced atmospheric circulation along the equator in turn greatly improves the thermal structure of the upper equatorial Atlantic with much reduced warm sea surface temperature (SST) biases. Second, the coastline in the southeastern TA and steep orography are better resolved at high resolution, which improves wind structure and in turn reduces warm SST biases in the Benguela upwelling region. The strongly diminished wind and SST biases at high atmosphere model resolution allow for a more realistic latitudinal position of the intertropical convergence zone. Resulting stronger cross-equatorial winds, in conjunction with a shallower thermocline, enable a rapid cold tongue development in the eastern TA in boreal spring. This enables simulation of realistic interannual SST variability and its seasonal phase locking in the KCM, which primarily is the result of a stronger thermocline feedback. Our findings suggest that enhanced atmospheric resolution, both vertical and horizontal, could be a key to achieving more realistic simulation of TA climatology and interannual variability in climate models.

Extremes in East African hydroclimate and links to Indo-Pacific variability on interannual to decadal timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ummenhofer, Caroline C.; Kulüke, Marco; Tierney, Jessica E.

2018-04-01

East African hydroclimate exhibits considerable variability across a range of timescales, with implications for its population that depends on the region's two rainy seasons. Recent work demonstrated that current state-of-the-art climate models consistently underestimate the long rains in boreal spring over the Horn of Africa while overestimating the short rains in autumn. This inability to represent the seasonal cycle makes it problematic for climate models to project changes in East African precipitation. Here we consider whether this bias also has implications for understanding interannual and decadal variability in the East African long and short rains. Using a consistent framework with an unforced multi-century global coupled climate model simulation, the role of Indo-Pacific variability for East African rainfall is compared across timescales and related to observations. The dominant driver of East African rainfall anomalies critically depends on the timescale under consideration: Interannual variations in East African hydroclimate coincide with significant sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies across the Indo-Pacific, including those associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the eastern Pacific, and are linked to changes in the Walker circulation, regional winds and vertical velocities over East Africa. Prolonged drought/pluvial periods in contrast exhibit anomalous SST predominantly in the Indian Ocean and Indo-Pacific warm pool (IPWP) region, while eastern Pacific anomalies are insignificant. We assessed dominant frequencies in Indo-Pacific SST and found the eastern equatorial Pacific dominated by higher-frequency variability in the ENSO band, while the tropical Indian Ocean and IPWP exhibit lower-frequency variability beyond 10 years. This is consistent with the different contribution to regional precipitation anomalies for the eastern Pacific versus Indian Ocean and IPWP on interannual and decadal timescales, respectively. In the model, the dominant low-frequency signal seen in the observations in the Indo-Pacific is not well-represented as it instead exhibits overly strong variability on subdecadal timescales. The overly strong ENSO-teleconnection likely contributes to the overestimated role of the short rains in the seasonal cycle in the model compared to observations.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Balaguru, Karthik; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Yoon, Jin-Ho

Despite the strong dependence of the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), which is a measure of the intensity of Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity, on tropical sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), the variations in PDI are not completely explained by SST. Here we show, using an analysis of a string of observational data sets, that the variability of the thermocline depth (TD) in the east Pacific exerts a significant degree of control on the variability of PDI in that region. On average, a deep thermocline with a larger reservoir of heat favors TC intensification by reducing SST cooling while a shallow thermocline with amore » smaller heat reservoir promotes enhanced SST cooling that contributes to TC decay. At interannual time scales, the variability of basin-mean TD accounts for nearly 30% of the variability in the PDI during the TC season. Also, about 20% of the interannual variability in the east Pacific basin-mean TD is due to the El Niño and the Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a dominant climate signal in this region. This study suggests that a better understanding of the factors governing the interannual variability of the TD conditions in the east Pacific and how they may change over time, may lead to an improved projection of future east Pacific TC activity.« less

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on African savannas changes with mean rainfall.

PubMed

Synodinos, Alexis D; Tietjen, Britta; Lohmann, Dirk; Jeltsch, Florian

2018-01-21

Savannas are mixed tree-grass ecosystems whose dynamics are predominantly regulated by resource competition and the temporal variability in climatic and environmental factors such as rainfall and fire. Hence, increasing inter-annual rainfall variability due to climate change could have a significant impact on savannas. To investigate this, we used an ecohydrological model of stochastic differential equations and simulated African savanna dynamics along a gradient of mean annual rainfall (520-780 mm/year) for a range of inter-annual rainfall variabilities. Our simulations produced alternative states of grassland and savanna across the mean rainfall gradient. Increasing inter-annual variability had a negative effect on the savanna state under dry conditions (520 mm/year), and a positive effect under moister conditions (580-780 mm/year). The former resulted from the net negative effect of dry and wet extremes on trees. In semi-arid conditions (520 mm/year), dry extremes caused a loss of tree cover, which could not be recovered during wet extremes because of strong resource competition and the increased frequency of fires. At high mean rainfall (780 mm/year), increased variability enhanced savanna resilience. Here, resources were no longer limiting and the slow tree dynamics buffered against variability by maintaining a stable population during 'dry' extremes, providing the basis for growth during wet extremes. Simultaneously, high rainfall years had a weak marginal benefit on grass cover due to density-regulation and grazing. Our results suggest that the effects of the slow tree and fast grass dynamics on tree-grass interactions will become a major determinant of the savanna vegetation composition with increasing rainfall variability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem properties of semiarid savanna grassland in West Africa and its relationship with environmental variability.

PubMed

Tagesson, Torbern; Fensholt, Rasmus; Guiro, Idrissa; Rasmussen, Mads Olander; Huber, Silvia; Mbow, Cheikh; Garcia, Monica; Horion, Stéphanie; Sandholt, Inge; Holm-Rasmussen, Bo; Göttsche, Frank M; Ridler, Marc-Etienne; Olén, Niklas; Lundegard Olsen, Jørgen; Ehammer, Andrea; Madsen, Mathias; Olesen, Folke S; Ardö, Jonas

2015-01-01

The Dahra field site in Senegal, West Africa, was established in 2002 to monitor ecosystem properties of semiarid savanna grassland and their responses to climatic and environmental change. This article describes the environment and the ecosystem properties of the site using a unique set of in situ data. The studied variables include hydroclimatic variables, species composition, albedo, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), hyperspectral characteristics (350-1800 nm), surface reflectance anisotropy, brightness temperature, fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation (FAPAR), biomass, vegetation water content, and land-atmosphere exchanges of carbon (NEE) and energy. The Dahra field site experiences a typical Sahelian climate and is covered by coexisting trees (~3% canopy cover) and grass species, characterizing large parts of the Sahel. This makes the site suitable for investigating relationships between ecosystem properties and hydroclimatic variables for semiarid savanna ecosystems of the region. There were strong interannual, seasonal and diurnal dynamics in NEE, with high values of ~-7.5 g C m(-2)  day(-1) during the peak of the growing season. We found neither browning nor greening NDVI trends from 2002 to 2012. Interannual variation in species composition was strongly related to rainfall distribution. NDVI and FAPAR were strongly related to species composition, especially for years dominated by the species Zornia glochidiata. This influence was not observed in interannual variation in biomass and vegetation productivity, thus challenging dryland productivity models based on remote sensing. Surface reflectance anisotropy (350-1800 nm) at the peak of the growing season varied strongly depending on wavelength and viewing angle thereby having implications for the design of remotely sensed spectral vegetation indices covering different wavelength regions. The presented time series of in situ data have great potential for dryland dynamics studies, global climate change related research and evaluation and parameterization of remote sensing products and dynamic vegetation models. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Interannual Variability of Fisheries Economic Returns and Energy Ratios Is Mostly Explained by Gear Type

PubMed Central

Trenkel, Verena M.; Daurès, Fabienne; Rochet, Marie-Joëlle; Lorance, Pascal

2013-01-01

According to portfolio theory applied to fisheries management, economic returns are stabilised by harvesting in a portfolio stocks of species whose returns are negatively correlated and for which the portfolio economic return variance is smaller than the sum of stock specific return variances. Also, variability is expected to decrease with portfolio width. Using a range of indicators, these predictions were tested for the French fishing fleets in the Bay of Biscay (Northeast Atlantic) during the period 2001–2009. For this, vessels were grouped into eight fishing fleets based on the gears used and exploited species were grouped into five functional groups. The portfolio width of fleets ranged from 1–3 functional groups, or 4–19 species. Economic fleet returns (sale revenues minus fishing costs) varied strongly between years; the interannual variability was independent of portfolio width (species or functional groups). Energy ratio expressed by the ratio between fuel energy used for fishing and energy contained in landings varied from 0.3 for purse seines to 9.7 for trawlers using bottom trawls alone or in combination with pelagic trawls independent of portfolio width. Interannual variability in total sale revenues was larger than the sum of species specific sales revenue variability, except for fleets using hooks and pelagic trawlers; it increased with the number of species exploited. In conclusion, the interannual variability of economic returns or energy ratios of French fisheries in the Bay of Biscay did not decrease with the number of species or functional groups exploited, though it varied between fleets. PMID:23922951

Post-Fire Recovery of Eco-Hydrologic Behavior Given Historic and Projected Climate Variability in California Mediterranean Type Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seaby, L. P.; Tague, C. L.; Hope, A. S.

2006-12-01

The Mediterranean type environments (MTEs) of California are characterized by a distinct wet and dry season and high variability in inter-annual climate. Water limitation in MTEs makes eco-hydrological processes highly sensitive to both climate variability and frequent fire disturbance. This research modeled post-fire eco- hydrologic behavior under historical and moderate and extreme scenarios of future climate in a semi-arid chaparral dominated southern California MTE. We used a physically-based, spatially-distributed, eco- hydrological model (RHESSys - Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System), to capture linkages between water and vegetation response to the combined effects of fire and historic and future climate variability. We found post-fire eco-hydrologic behavior to be strongly influenced by the episodic nature of MTE climate, which intensifies under projected climate change. Higher rates of post-fire net primary productivity were found under moderate climate change, while more extreme climate change produced water stressed conditions which were less favorable for vegetation productivity. Precipitation variability in the historic record follows the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and these inter-annual climate characteristics intensify under climate change. Inter-annual variation in streamflow follows these precipitation patterns. Post-fire streamflow and carbon cycling trajectories are strongly dependent on climate characteristics during the first 5 years following fire, and historic intra-climate variability during this period tends to overwhelm longer term trends and variation that might be attributable to climate change. Results have implications for water resource availability, vegetation type conversion from shrubs to grassland, and changes in ecosystem structure and function.

Global linkages between teleconnection patterns and the terrestrial biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dahlin, Kyla M.; Ault, Toby R.

2018-07-01

Interannual variability in the global carbon cycle is largely due to variations in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems, yet linkages between climate variability and variability in the terrestrial carbon cycle are not well understood at the global scale. Using a 30-year satellite record of semi-monthly leaf area index (LAI), we show that four modes of climate variability - El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Atlantic Meridional Mode, and the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode - strongly impact interannual vegetation growth patterns, with 68% of the land surface impacted by at least one of these teleconnection patterns, yet the spatial distribution of these impacts is heterogeneous. Considering the patterns' impacts by biome, none has an exclusively positive or negative relationship with LAI. Our findings imply that future changes in the frequency and/or magnitude of teleconnection patterns will lead to diverse changes to the terrestrial biosphere and the global carbon cycle.

Variability of Extreme Precipitation Events in Tijuana, Mexico During ENSO Years

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cavazos, T.; Rivas, D.

2007-05-01

We present the variability of daily precipitation extremes (top 10 percecnt) in Tijuana, Mexico during 1950-2000. Interannual rainfall variability is significantly modulated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation. The interannual precipitation variability exhibits a large change with a relatively wet period and more variability during 1976- 2000. The wettest years and the largest frequency of daily extremes occurred after 1976-1977, with 6 out of 8 wet years characterized by El Nino episodes and 2 by neutral conditions. However, more than half of the daily extremes during 1950-2000 occurred in non-ENSO years, evidencing that neutral conditions also contribute significantly to extreme climatic variability in the region. Extreme events that occur in neutral (strong El Nino) conditions are associated with a pineapple express and a neutral PNA (negative TNH) teleconnection pattern that links an anomalous tropical convective forcing west (east) of the date line with a strong subtropical jet over the study area. At regional scale, both types of extremes are characterized by a trough in the subtropical jet over California/Baja California, which is further intensified by thermal interaction with an anomalous warm California Current off Baja California, low-level moisture advection from the subtropical warm sea-surface region, intense convective activity over the study area and extreme rainfall from southern California to Baja California.

Interannual variability of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains, United States: Examples from two alpine watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepsen, Steven M.; Molotch, Noah P.; Williams, Mark W.; Rittger, Karl E.; Sickman, James O.

2012-02-01

The distribution of snow and the energy flux components of snowmelt are intrinsic characteristics of the alpine water cycle controlling the location of source waters and the effect of climate on streamflow. Interannual variability of these characteristics is relevant to the effect of climate change on alpine hydrology. Our objective is to characterize the interannual variability in the spatial distribution of snow and energy fluxes of snowmelt in watersheds of a maritime setting, Tokopah Basin (TOK) in California's southern Sierra Nevada, and a continental setting, Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV4) in Colorado's Front Range, using a 12 year database (1996-2007) of hydrometeorological observations and satellite-derived snow cover. Snowpacks observed in GLV4 exhibit substantially greater spatial variability than in TOK (0.75 versus 0.28 spatial coefficient of variation). In addition, modeling results indicate that the net turbulent energy flux contribution to snowmelt in GLV4 is, on average, 3 times greater in magnitude (mean 29% versus 10%) and interannual variability (standard deviation 17% versus 6%) than in TOK. These energy flux values exhibit strong seasonality, increasing as the melt season progresses to times later in the year (R2 = 0.54-0.77). This seasonality of energy flux appears to be associated with snowmelt rates that generally increase with onset date of melt (0.02 cm d-2). This seasonality in snowmelt rate, coupled to differences in hydrogeology, may account for the observed differences in correspondence between the timing of snowmelt and timing of streamflow in these watersheds.

Interannual variability of snowmelt in the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains, United States: examples from two alpine watersheds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jepsen, Steven M.; Molotch, Noah P.; Williams, Mark W.; Rittger, Karl E.; Sickman, James O.

2012-01-01

The distribution of snow and the energy flux components of snowmelt are intrinsic characteristics of the alpine water cycle controlling the location of source waters and the effect of climate on streamflow. Interannual variability of these characteristics is relevant to the effect of climate change on alpine hydrology. Our objective is to characterize the interannual variability in the spatial distribution of snow and energy fluxes of snowmelt in watersheds of a maritime setting, Tokopah Basin (TOK) in California's southern Sierra Nevada, and a continental setting, Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV4) in Colorado's Front Range, using a 12 year database (1996–2007) of hydrometeorological observations and satellite-derived snow cover. Snowpacks observed in GLV4 exhibit substantially greater spatial variability than in TOK (0.75 versus 0.28 spatial coefficient of variation). In addition, modeling results indicate that the net turbulent energy flux contribution to snowmelt in GLV4 is, on average, 3 times greater in magnitude (mean 29% versus 10%) and interannual variability (standard deviation 17% versus 6%) than in TOK. These energy flux values exhibit strong seasonality, increasing as the melt season progresses to times later in the year (R2 = 0.54–0.77). This seasonality of energy flux appears to be associated with snowmelt rates that generally increase with onset date of melt (0.02 cm d-2). This seasonality in snowmelt rate, coupled to differences in hydrogeology, may account for the observed differences in correspondence between the timing of snowmelt and timing of streamflow in these watersheds.

Observed seasonal and interannual variability of the near-surface thermal structure of the Arabian Sea Warm Pool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, R. R.; Ramakrishna, S. S. V. S.

2017-06-01

The observed seasonal and interannual variability of near-surface thermal structure of the Arabian Sea Warm Pool (ASWP) is examined utilizing a reanalysis data set for the period 1990-2008. During a year, the ASWP progressively builds from February, reaches its peak by May only in the topmost 60 m water column. The ASWP Index showed a strong seasonal cycle with distinct interannual signatures. The years with higher (lower) sea surface temperature (SST) and larger (smaller) spatial extent are termed as strong (weak) ASWP years. The differences in the magnitude and spatial extent of thermal structure between the strong and weak ASWP regimes are seen more prominently in the topmost 40 m water column. The heat content values with respect to 28 °C isotherm (HC28) are relatively higher (lower) during strong (weak) ASWP years. Even the secondary peak in HC28 seen during the preceding November-December showed higher (lower) magnitude during the strong ASWP (weak) years. The influence of the observed variability in the surface wind field, surface net air-sea heat flux, near-surface mixed layer thickness, sea surface height (SSH) anomaly, depth of 20 °C isotherm and barrier layer thickness is examined to explain the observed differences in the near-surface thermal structure of the ASWP between strong and weak regimes. The surface wind speed is much weaker in particular during the preceding October and February-March corresponding to the strong ASWP years when compared to those of the weak ASWP years implying its important role. Both stronger winter cooling during weak ASWP years and stronger pre-monsoon heating during strong ASWP years through the surface air-sea heat fluxes contribute to the observed sharp contrast in the magnitudes of both the regimes of the ASWP. The upwelling Rossby wave during the preceding summer monsoon, post-monsoon and winter seasons is stronger corresponding to the weak ASWP regime when compared to the strong ASWP regime resulting in greater cooling of the near-surface layers during the summer monsoon season of the preceding year. On the other hand, the downwelling Rossby wave is stronger during pre-monsoon months during the strong ASWP regime when compared to weak ASWP regime leading to lesser cooling during strong ASWP regime.

Tropical nighttime warming as a dominant driver of variability in the terrestrial carbon sink

Treesearch

William R. L. Anderegg; Ashley P. Ballantyne; W. Kolby Smith; Joseph Majkut; Sam Rabin; Claudie Beaulieu; Richard Birdsey; John P. Dunne; Richard A. Houghton; Ranga B. Myneni; Yude Pan; Jorge L. Sarmiento; Nathan Serota; Elena Shevliakova; Pieter Tans; Stephen W. Pacala

2015-01-01

The terrestrial biosphere is currently a strong carbon (C) sink but may switch to a source in the 21st century as climate-driven losses exceed CO2-driven C gains, thereby accelerating global warming. Although it has long been recognized that tropical climate plays a critical role in regulating interannual climate variability, the causal link...

Satellite microwave observations of the interannual variability of snowmelt on sea ice in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willmes, S.; Haas, C.; Nicolaus, M.; Bareiss, J.

2009-04-01

Snowmelt processes on Antarctic sea ice are examined. We present a simple snowmelt indicator based on diurnal brightness temperature variations from microwave satellite data. The method is validated through extensive field data from the western Weddell Sea and lends itself to the investigation of interannual and spatial variations of the typical snowmelt on Antarctic sea ice. We use in situ measurements of physical snow properties to show that despite the absence of strong melting, the summer period is distinct from all other seasons with enhanced diurnal variations of snow wetness. A microwave emission model reveals that repeated thawing and refreezing causes the typical microwave emissivity signatures that are found on perennial Antarctic sea ice during summer. The proposed melt indicator accounts for the characteristic phenomenological stages of snowmelt in the Southern Ocean and detects the onset of diurnal snow wetting. An algorithm is presented to map large-scale snowmelt onset, based on satellite data from the period between 1988 and 2006. The results indicate strong meridional gradients of snowmelt onset with the Weddell, Amundsen and Ross Seas showing earliest (beginning of October) and most frequent snowmelt. Moreover, a distinct interannual variability of melt onset dates and large areas of first-year ice where no diurnal freeze-thawing occurs at the surface are determined.

Satellite microwave observations of the interannual variability of snowmelt on sea ice in the Southern Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Willmes, Sascha; Haas, Christian; Nicolaus, Marcel; Bareiss, JöRg

2009-03-01

Snowmelt processes on Antarctic sea ice are examined. We present a simple snowmelt indicator based on diurnal brightness temperature variations from microwave satellite data. The method is validated through extensive field data from the western Weddell Sea and lends itself to the investigation of interannual and spatial variations of the typical snowmelt on Antarctic sea ice. We use in-situ measurements of physical snow properties to show that despite the absence of strong melting, the summer period is distinct from all other seasons with enhanced diurnal variations of snow wetness. A microwave emission model reveals that repeated thawing and refreezing cause the typical microwave emissivity signatures that are found on perennial Antarctic sea ice during summer. The proposed melt indicator accounts for the characteristic phenomenological stages of snowmelt in the Southern Ocean and detects the onset of diurnal snow wetting. An algorithm is presented to map large-scale snowmelt onset based on satellite data from the period between 1988 and 2006. The results indicate strong meridional gradients of snowmelt onset with the Weddell, Amundsen, and Ross Seas showing earliest (beginning of October) and most frequent snowmelt. Moreover, a distinct interannual variability of melt onset dates and large areas of first-year ice where no diurnal freeze thawing occurs at the surface are determined.

Sea level anomaly in the North Atlantic and seas around Europe: Long-term variability and response to North Atlantic teleconnection patterns.

PubMed

Iglesias, Isabel; Lorenzo, M Nieves; Lázaro, Clara; Fernandes, M Joana; Bastos, Luísa

2017-12-31

Sea level anomaly (SLA), provided globally by satellite altimetry, is considered a valuable proxy for detecting long-term changes of the global ocean, as well as short-term and annual variations. In this manuscript, monthly sea level anomaly grids for the period 1993-2013 are used to characterise the North Atlantic Ocean variability at inter-annual timescales and its response to the North Atlantic main patterns of atmospheric circulation variability (North Atlantic Oscillation, Eastern Atlantic, Eastern Atlantic/Western Russia, Scandinavian and Polar/Eurasia) and main driven factors as sea level pressure, sea surface temperature and wind fields. SLA variability and long-term trends are analysed for the North Atlantic Ocean and several sub-regions (North, Baltic and Mediterranean and Black seas, Bay of Biscay extended to the west coast of the Iberian Peninsula, and the northern North Atlantic Ocean), depicting the SLA fluctuations at basin and sub-basin scales, aiming at representing the regions of maximum sea level variability. A significant correlation between SLA and the different phases of the teleconnection patterns due to the generated winds, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature anomalies, with a strong variability on temporal and spatial scales, has been identified. Long-term analysis reveals the existence of non-stationary inter-annual SLA fluctuations in terms of the temporal scale. Spectral density analysis has shown the existence of long-period signals in the SLA inter-annual component, with periods of ~10, 5, 4 and 2years, depending on the analysed sub-region. Also, a non-uniform increase in sea level since 1993 is identified for all sub-regions, with trend values between 2.05mm/year, for the Bay of Biscay region, and 3.98mm/year for the Baltic Sea (no GIA correction considered). The obtained results demonstrated a strong link between the atmospheric patterns and SLA, as well as strong long-period fluctuations of this variable in spatial and temporal scales. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Transport and Thermohaline Structure in the Western Tropical North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schonau, Martha Coakley

Transport and thermohaline structure of water masses and their respective variability are observed and modeled in the western tropical North Pacific using autonomous underwater gliders, Argo climatology and a numerical ocean state estimate. The North Equatorial Current (NEC) advects subtropical and subpolar water masses into the region that are transported equatorward by the Mindanao Current (MC). Continuous glider observations of these two currents from June 2009 to December 2013 provide absolute geostrophic velocity, water mass structure, and transport. The observations are compared to Argo climatology (Roemmich and Gilson, 2009), wind and precipitation to assess forcing, and annual and interannual variability. Observations are assimilated into a regional ocean state estimate (1/6°) to examine regional transport variability and its relationship to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomena (ENSO). The NEC, described in Chapter 1, is observed along 134.3°E, from 8.5°N to 16.5°N. NEC thermocline transport is relatively constant, with a variable subthermocline transport that is distinguished by countercurrents centered at 9.6°N and 13.1°N. Correlation between thermocline and subthermocline transport is strong. Isopycnals with subducted water masses, the North Pacific Tropical Water and North Pacific Intermediate Water, have the greatest fine-scale thermohaline variance. The NEC advects water masses into the MC, described in Chapter 2, that flows equatorward along the coast of Mindanao. Gliders observed the MC at a mean latitude of 8.5°N. The Mindanao Undercurrent (MUC) persists in the subthermocline offshore of the MC, with a net poleward transport of intermediate water typical of South Pacific origin. The variable subthermocline transport in the MC/MUC has an inverse linear relationship with the Nino 3.4 index and strongly impacts total transport variability. For each the MC and NEC, surface salinity and thermocline depth have a strong relationship with ENSO, and there is relationship between the fine-scale and large-scale isopycnal thermohaline structure. In Chapter 3, a numerical ocean state estimates shows strong interannual variability of regional transport with ENSO. Prior to mature ENSO events, transport in each the NEC, MC and North Equatorial Counter Current (NECC) increase. The increase is from meridional gradients in isopycnal depth related to interannual wind anomalies.

Coral-inferred Variability of Upstream Kuroshio Current from 1953-2004 AD

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X.; Yi, L.; Shen, C. C.; Hsin, Y. C.

2016-12-01

The Kuroshio Current (KC), one of the most important western boundary currents in the North Pacific Ocean, strongly impacts regional climate in East Asia and upper-ocean thermal structure. However, the responses of KC to regional and remote climate forcing are poorly understood owing to lacking of long-term KC observations. Here, we present a sea surface temperature (SST) record from 1953 to 2004 AD derived from monthly skeletal δ18O data of a living coral Porites core, drilled in Nanwan, southern Taiwan (22°N, 121°E), located on the western front of the Upstream KC. The increased/reduced Kuroshio transport would generate stronger/weaker upwelling in Southern Taiwan, which can cause lower/higher SST. Agreement between dynamics of interannual coral δ18O and modern KC data shows that the regional coral δ18O can be used as a promising proxy for Upstream KC intensity. The KC-induced SST anomaly record reveals prominent interannual and decadal variability predominantly controlled by the bifurcation latitude of North Equatorial Current. We also find that the reconstructed KC intensity at east of Taiwan and south of Japan have nearly simultaneous interannual changes, suggesting the same dominant forcing(s) for the entire KC system. Additional work is needed to understand the KC system with respect to the interannual to decadal climate variability and the influences of global warming.

Ensemble simulations of the role of the stratosphere in the attribution of northern extratropical tropospheric ozone variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hess, P.; Kinnison, D.; Tang, Q.

2015-03-01

Despite the need to understand the impact of changes in emissions and climate on tropospheric ozone, the attribution of tropospheric interannual ozone variability to specific processes has proven difficult. Here, we analyze the stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone variability and trends from 1953 to 2005 in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) mid-latitudes using four ensemble simulations of the free running (FR) Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM). The simulations are externally forced with observed time-varying (1) sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), (2) greenhouse gases (GHGs), (3) ozone depleting substances (ODS), (4) quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), (5) solar variability (SV) and (6) stratospheric sulfate surface area density (SAD). A detailed representation of stratospheric chemistry is simulated, including the ozone loss due to volcanic eruptions and polar stratospheric clouds. In the troposphere, ozone production is represented by CH4-NOx smog chemistry, where surface chemical emissions remain interannually constant. Despite the simplicity of its tropospheric chemistry, at many NH measurement locations, the interannual ozone variability in the FR WACCM simulations is significantly correlated with the measured interannual variability. This suggests the importance of the external forcing applied in these simulations in driving interannual ozone variability. The variability and trend in the simulated 1953-2005 tropospheric ozone from 30 to 90° N at background surface measurement sites, 500 hPa measurement sites and in the area average are largely explained on interannual timescales by changes in the 30-90° N area averaged flux of ozone across the 100 hPa surface and changes in tropospheric methane concentrations. The average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to methane (percent change in ozone to a percent change in methane) from 30 to 90° N is 0.17 at 500 hPa and 0.21 at the surface; the average sensitivity of tropospheric ozone to the 100 hPa ozone flux (percent change in ozone to a percent change in the ozone flux) from 30 to 90° N is 0.19 at 500 hPa and 0.11 at the surface. The 30-90° N simulated downward residual velocity at 100 hPa increased by 15% between 1953 and 2005. However, the impact of this on the 30-90° N 100 hPa ozone flux is modulated by the long-term changes in stratospheric ozone. The ozone flux decreases from 1965 to 1990 due to stratospheric ozone depletion, but increases again by approximately 7% from 1990 to 2005. The first empirical orthogonal function of interannual ozone variability explains from 40% (at the surface) to over 80% (at 150 hPa) of the simulated ozone interannual variability from 30 to 90° N. This identified mode of ozone variability shows strong stratosphere-troposphere coupling, demonstrating the importance of the stratosphere in an attribution of tropospheric ozone variability. The simulations, with no change in emissions, capture almost 50% of the measured ozone change during the 1990s at a variety of locations. This suggests that a large portion of the measured change is not due to changes in emissions, but can be traced to changes in large-scale modes of ozone variability. This emphasizes the difficulty in the attribution of ozone changes, and the importance of natural variability in understanding the trends and variability of ozone. We find little relation between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index and large-scale tropospheric ozone variability over the long-term record.

Seasonal Evolution and Interannual Variability of the Local Solar Energy Absorbed by the Arctic Sea Ice-Ocean System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perovich, Donald K.; Nghiem, Son V.; Markus, Thorsten; Schwieger, Axel

2007-01-01

The melt season of the Arctic sea ice cover is greatly affected by the partitioning of the incident solar radiation between reflection to the atmosphere and absorption in the ice and ocean. This partitioning exhibits a strong seasonal cycle and significant interannual variability. Data in the period 1998, 2000-2004 were analyzed in this study. Observations made during the 1997-1998 SHEBA (Surface HEat Budget of the Arctic Ocean) field experiment showed a strong seasonal dependence of the partitioning, dominated by a five-phase albedo evolution. QuikSCAT scatterometer data from the SHEBA region in 1999-2004 were used to further investigate solar partitioning in summer. The time series of scatterometer data were used to determine the onset of melt and the beginning of freezeup. This information was combined with SSM/I-derived ice concentration, TOVS-based estimates of incident solar irradiance, and SHEBA results to estimate the amount of solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system for these years. The average total solar energy absorbed in the ice-ocean system from April through September was 900 MJ m(sup -2). There was considerable interannual variability, with a range of 826 to 1044 MJ m(sup -2). The total amount of solar energy absorbed by the ice and ocean was strongly related to the date of melt onset, but only weakly related to the total duration of the melt season or the onset of freezeup. The timing of melt onset is significant because the incident solar energy is large and a change at this time propagates through the entire melt season, affecting the albedo every day throughout melt and freezeup.

Interannual variability in global mean sea level estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles

DOE PAGES

Fasullo, John T.; Nerem, Robert S.

2016-10-31

To better understand global mean sea level (GMSL) as an indicator of climate variability and change, contributions to its interannual variation are quantified in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. Consistent with expectations, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to exert a strong influence due to variability in rainfall over land (PL) and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Other important contributors include changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and precipitable water (PW). The temporal evolution of individual contributing terms is documented. The magnitude of peak GMSL anomalies associated with ENSO generally are of themore » order of 0.5 mm·K -1 with significant inter-event variability, with a standard deviation (σ) that is about half as large The results underscore the exceptional rarity of the 2010/2011 La Niña-related GMSL drop and estimate the frequency of such an event to be about only once in every 75 years. In addition to ENSO, major volcanic eruptions are found to be a key driver of interannual variability. Associated GMSL variability contrasts with that of ENSO as TWS and PW anomalies initially offset the drop due to OHC reductions but short-lived relative to them. Furthermore, responses up to 25 mm are estimated for the largest eruptions of the Last Millennium.« less

Interannual variability in global mean sea level estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fasullo, John T.; Nerem, Robert S.

To better understand global mean sea level (GMSL) as an indicator of climate variability and change, contributions to its interannual variation are quantified in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble and Last Millennium Ensemble. Consistent with expectations, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is found to exert a strong influence due to variability in rainfall over land (PL) and terrestrial water storage (TWS). Other important contributors include changes in ocean heat content (OHC) and precipitable water (PW). The temporal evolution of individual contributing terms is documented. The magnitude of peak GMSL anomalies associated with ENSO generally are of themore » order of 0.5 mm·K -1 with significant inter-event variability, with a standard deviation (σ) that is about half as large The results underscore the exceptional rarity of the 2010/2011 La Niña-related GMSL drop and estimate the frequency of such an event to be about only once in every 75 years. In addition to ENSO, major volcanic eruptions are found to be a key driver of interannual variability. Associated GMSL variability contrasts with that of ENSO as TWS and PW anomalies initially offset the drop due to OHC reductions but short-lived relative to them. Furthermore, responses up to 25 mm are estimated for the largest eruptions of the Last Millennium.« less

Two-Dimensional Model Simulations of Interannual Variability in the Tropical Stratosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fleming, Eric L.; Jackman, Charles H.; Considine, David B.; Rosenfeld, Joan; Bhartia, P. K. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

Meteorological data from the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) and constituent data from the Upper Atmospheric Research Satellite (UARS) are used to construct yearly zonal mean dynamical fields for the 1990s for use in the GSFC 2-D chemistry and transport model. This allows for interannual dynamical variability to be included in the model constituent simulations. In this study, we focus on the tropical stratosphere. We find that the phase of quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signals in equatorial CH4, and profile and total column 03 data is resolved quite well using this empirically- based 2-D model transport framework. However. the QBO amplitudes in the model constituents are systematically underestimated relative to the observations at most levels. This deficiency is probably due in part to the limited vertical resolutions of the 2-D model and the UKMO and UARS input data sets. We find that using different heating rate calculations in the model affects the interannual and QBO amplitudes in the constituent fields, but has little impact on the phase. Sensitivity tests reveal that the QBO in transport dominates the ozone interannual variability in the lower stratosphere. with the effect of the temperature QBO being dominant in the tipper stratosphere via the strong temperature dependence of the ozone loss reaction rates. We also find that the QBO in odd nitrogen radicals, which is caused by the QBO modulated transport of NOy, plays a significant but not dominant role in determining the ozone QBO variability in the middle stratosphere. The model mean age of air is in good overall agreement with that determined from tropical lower,middle stratospheric OMS balloon observations of SF6 and CO2. The interannual variability of tile equatorial mean age in the model increases with altitude and maximizes near 40 km, with a range, of 4-5 years over the 1993-2000 time period.

Lake Superior: Nearshore Variability and a Landscape Driver Concept

EPA Science Inventory

High spatial variation is well known to exist in water quality parameters of the Great Lakes nearshore, however strong patterns for extended reaches are also observed and found to be robust across a seasonal time frame. Less is known about robustness of inter-annual variation wi...

Deep Bering Sea Circulation and Variability, 2001-2016, From Argo Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, Gregory C.; Stabeno, Phyllis J.

2017-12-01

The mean structure, seasonal cycle, and interannual variability of temperature and salinity are analyzed in the deep Bering Sea basin using Argo profile data collected from 2001 to 2016. Gyre transports are estimated using geostrophic stream function maps of Argo profile data referenced to a 1,000 dbar nondivergent absolute velocity stream function mapped from Argo parking pressure displacement data. Relatively warm and salty water from the North Pacific enters the basin through the Near Strait and passages between Aleutian Islands to the east. This water then flows in a cyclonic (counterclockwise) direction around the region, cooling (and freshening) along its path. Aleutian North Slope Current transports from 0 to 1,890 dbar are estimated at 3-6 Sverdrups (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1) eastward, feeding into the northwestward Bering Slope Current with transports of mostly 5-6 Sv. The Kamchatka Current has transports of ˜6 Sv north of Shirshov Ridge, increasing to 14-16 Sv south of the ridge, where it is augmented by westward flow from Near Strait. Temperature exhibits strong interannual variations in the upper ocean, with warm periods in 2004-2005 and 2015-2016, and cold periods around 2009 and 2012. In contrast, upper ocean salinity generally decreases from 2001 to 2016. As a result of this salinity decrease, the density of the subsurface temperature minimum decreased over this time period, despite more interannual variability in the minimum temperature value. The subsurface temperature maximum also exhibits interannual variability, but with values generally warmer than those previously reported for the 1970s and 1980s.

Diagnosing GCM errors over West Africa using relaxation experiments. Part I: summer monsoon climatology and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pohl, Benjamin; Douville, Hervé

2011-10-01

The CNRM atmospheric general circulation model Arpege-Climat is relaxed towards atmospheric reanalyses outside the 10°S-32°N 30°W-50°E domain in order to disentangle the regional versus large-scale sources of climatological biases and interannual variability of the West African monsoon (WAM). On the one hand, the main climatological features of the monsoon, including the spatial distribution of summer precipitation, are only weakly improved by the nudging, thereby suggesting the regional origin of the Arpege-Climat biases. On the other hand, the nudging technique is relatively efficient to control the interannual variability of the WAM dynamics, though the impact on rainfall variability is less clear. Additional sensitivity experiments focusing on the strong 1994 summer monsoon suggest that the weak sensitivity of the model biases is not an artifact of the nudging design, but the evidence that regional physical processes are the main limiting factors for a realistic simulation of monsoon circulation and precipitation in the Arpege-Climat model. Sensitivity experiments to soil moisture boundary conditions are also conducted and highlight the relevance of land-atmosphere coupling for the amplification of precipitation biases. Nevertheless, the land surface hydrology is not the main explanation for the model errors that are rather due to deficiencies in the atmospheric physics. The intraseasonal timescale and the model internal variability are discussed in a companion paper.

Variability of the Labrador Sea Surface Eddy Kinetic Energy Observed by Altimeter From 1993 to 2012

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Weiwei; Yan, Xiao-Hai

2018-01-01

A merged along track altimeter data set is used to study the variability of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) in the Labrador Sea from 1993 to 2012. The EKE near the west Greenland current (WGC) has strong interannual variability without long-term trend from 1993 to 2012. The propagation direction of the Irminger Rings (IRs) originating from the WGC can be inferred from the EKE derived from altimeter, and the southward propagation of the IRs varies interannually. The central Labrador Sea EKE increases significantly from 1993 to 2012. The central Labrador Sea temperature difference between the end and the beginning of the winter convections is defined as restratification index to measure the restratification strengths. The relation between the central Labrador Sea EKE and the restratification index shows that the enhanced eddy activity originating from the west of the central Labrador Sea may cool the central Labrador Sea significantly. The interannual variability of the WGC EKE is likely to be driven by the large scale Subpolar Gyre (SPG) circulation variability and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The NAO also affects the central Labrador Sea EKE through its fingerprint in the local wind stress and surface heat flux. The NAO affects the WGC EKE by changing the SPG circulation strength, which will subsequently affect the WGC EKE through unknown physical processes.

Observations of the Winter Thermal Structure of Lake Superior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Titze, Daniel James

Moored thermistor strings that span the water column have been deployed at up to seven locations throughout Lake Superior from 2005 through present, producing a unique year-round record of the thermal structure of a large lake. This extensive temperature record reveals significant interannual and spatial variability in Lake Superior's winter heat content, thermocline depth, and phenology. Of particular mention is a stark contrast in thermal structure between the cold, icy winter of 2009 and the much warmer winter of 2012, during which especially strong and weak negative stratification was observed, respectively. Significant interannual and spatial variability was also observed in Lake Superior ice cover, as shown through data extracted from Ice Mapping System satellite imagery (NOAA/NESDIS 2004). When water column heat content was estimated from temperature data and analyzed in concert with lake ice-cover data, it was found that ice cover can inhibit heat flux between the lake and the atmosphere, and that spatial variability in ice cover can translate into spatial variability in end-of-winter heat content. Such variability in end-of-winter heat content is found to be preserved through the spring warming season, and is strongly correlated with variability in the timing of the onset of summer stratification, with regions that have warmer end-of-winter water columns stratifying earlier than regions with colder end-of-winter water-columns.

Interannual Variation of Surface Circulation in the Japan/East Sea due to External Forcings and Intrinsic Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, Byoung-Ju; Cho, Seong Hun; Jung, Hee Seok; Lee, Sang-Ho; Byun, Do-Seong; Kwon, Kyungman

2018-03-01

The interannual variation of surface ocean currents can be as large as seasonal variation in the Japan/East Sea (JES). To identify the major factors that cause such interannual variability of surface ocean circulation in the JES, surface circulation was simulated from 1998 to 2009 using a three-dimensional model. Contributions of atmospheric forcing (ATM), open boundary data (OBC), and intrinsic variability (ITV) of the surface flow in the JES on the interannual variability of surface ocean circulation were separately examined using numerical simulations. Variability in surface circulation was quantified in terms of variance in sea surface height, 100-m depth water temperature, and surface currents. ITV was found to be the dominant factor that induced interannual variabilities of surface circulation, the main path of the East Korea Warm Current (EKWC), and surface kinetic energy on a time scale of 2-4 years. OBC and ATM were secondary factors contributing to the interannual variation of surface circulation. Interannual variation of ATM changed the separation latitude of EKWC and increased the variability of surface circulation in the Ulleung Basin. Interannual variation of OBC enhanced low-frequency changes in surface circulation and eddies in the Yamato Basin. It also modulated basin-wide uniform oscillations of sea level. This study suggests that precise estimation of initial conditions using data assimilation is essential for long-term prediction of surface circulation in the JES.

Interannual variability (1979-2013) of the North-Western Mediterranean deep water mass formation: past observation reanalysis and coupled ocean-atmosphere high-resolution modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Somot, Samuel; Houpert, Loic; Sevault, Florence; Testor, Pierre; Bosse, Anthony; Durrieu de Madron, Xavier; Dubois, Clotilde; Herrmann, Marine; Waldman, Robin; Bouin, Marie-Noëlle; Cassou, Christophe

2015-04-01

The North-Western Mediterranean Sea is known as one of the only place in the world where open-sea deep convection occurs (often up to more than 2000m) with the formation of the Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW). This phenomena is mostly driven by local preconditioning of the water column and strong buoyancy losses during Winter. At the event scale, the WMDW formation is characterized by different phases (preconditioning, strong mixing, restratification and spreading), intense air-sea interaction and strong meso-scale activity but, on a longer time scale, it also shows a large interannual variability and may be strongly affected by climate change with impact on the regional biogeochemistry. Therefore observing, simulating and understanding the long-term temporal variability of the North-Western Mediterranean deep water formation is still today a very challenging task. We try here to tackle those issues thanks to (1) a thorough reanalysis of past in-situ observations (CTD, Argo, surface and deep moorings, gliders) and (2) an ERA-Interim driven simulation using a recently-developed fully coupled Regional Climate System Model (CNRM-RCSM4, Sevault et al. 2014). The multi-decadal simulation (1979-2013) is designed to be temporally and spatially homogeneous with a realistic chronology, a high resolution representation of both the regional ocean and atmosphere, specific initial conditions, a long-term spin-up and a full ocean-atmosphere coupling without constraint at the air-sea interface. The observation reanalysis allows to reconstruct interannual time series of deep water formation indicators (ocean surface variables, mixed layer depth, surface of the convective area, dense water volumes and characteristics of the deep water). Using the observation-based indicators and the model outputs, the 34 Winters of the period 1979-2013 are analysed in terms of weather regimes, related Winter air-sea fluxes, ocean preconditioning, mixed layer depth, surface of the convective area, deep water formation rate and long-term evolution of the deep water hydrology.

How much of the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall is forced by SST?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Chao; Wu, Bo; Li, Chunhui; Lin, Ailan; Gu, Dejun; Zheng, Bin; Zhou, Tianjun

2016-07-01

It is widely accepted that the interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall is forced by sea surface temperature (SST), and SST anomalies are widely used as predictors of East Asian summer rainfall. But it is still not very clear what percentage of the interannual rainfall variability is contributed by SST anomalies. In this study, Atmospheric general circulation model simulations forced by observed interannual varying SST are compared with those forced by the fixed annual cycle of SST climatology, and their ratios of interannual variance (IAV) are analyzed. The output of 12 models from the 5th Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are adopted, and idealized experiments are done by Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4). Both the multi-model median of CMIP5 models and CAM4 experiments show that only about 18 % of the IAV of rainfall over East Asian land (EAL) is explained by SST, which is significantly lower than the tropical western Pacific, but comparable to the mid-latitude western Pacific. There is no significant difference between the southern part and the northern part of EAL in the percentages of SST contribution. The remote SST anomalies regulates rainfall over EAL probably by modulating the horizontal water vapor transport rather than the vertical motion, since the horizontal water vapor transport into EAL is strongly modulated by SST but the vertical motion over EAL is not. Previous studies argued about the relative importance of tropical Indian Ocean and tropical Pacific Ocean to East Asian summer rainfall anomalies. Our idealized experiments performed by CAM4 suggest that the contributions from these two ocean basins are comparable to each other, both of which account for approximately 6 % of the total IAV of rainfall over EAL.

Short-term favorable weather conditions are an important control of interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes

Treesearch

Jakob Zscheischler; Simone Fatichi; Sebastian Wolf; Peter D. Blanken; Gil Bohrer; Ken Clark; Ankur R. Desai; David Hollinger; Trevor Keenan; Kimberly A. Novick; Sonia I. Seneviratne

2016-01-01

Ecosystem models often perform poorly in reproducing interannual variability in carbon and water fluxes, resulting in considerable uncertainty when estimating the land-carbon sink. While many aggregated variables (growing season length, seasonal precipitation, or temperature) have been suggested as predictors for interannual variability in carbon fluxes, their...

Comparison of the seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton pigment concentrations in the Peru and California Current systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, A. C.; Huang, F.; Strub, P. T.; James, C.

1994-01-01

Monthly composite images from the global coastal zone color scanner (CZCS) data set are used to provide an initial illustration and comparison of seasonal and interannual variability of phytoplankton pigment concentration along the western coasts of South and North America in the Peru Current system (PCS) and California Current system (CCS). The analysis utilizes the entire time series of available data (November 1978 to June 1986) to form a mean annual cycle and an index of interannual variability for a series of both latitudinal and cross-shelf regions within each current system. Within 100 km of the coast, the strongest seasonal cycles in the CCS are in two regions, one between 34 deg and 45 deg N and the second between 24 deg and 29 deg N, each with maximum concentrations (greater than 3.0 mg m(exp-3)) in May-June. Weaker seasonal variability is present north of 45 deg N and in the Southern California Bight region (32 deg N). Within the PCS, in the same 100-km-wide coastal region, highest (greater than 45 deg S) and lowest (less than 20 deg S) latitude regions have a similar seasonal cycle with maximum concentrations (greater than 1.5 mg m(exp -3)) during the austral spring, summer, and fall, matching that evident throughout the CCS. Between these regions, off northern and central Chile, the seasonal maximum occurs during July-August (austral winter), contrary to the influence of upwelling favorable winds. Within the CCS, the dominant feature of interannual variability in the 8-year time series is a strong negative concentration anomaly in 1983, an El Nino year. The relative value of this negative anomaly is strongest off central California and is followed by an even stronger negative anomaly is strongest off central California and is followed by an even stronger negative anomaly in 1984 off Baja, California. In the PCS, strong negative anomalies during the 1982-1983 El Nino period are evident only off the Peruvian coast and are evident there only in the regions 100 km or more from the coast. Although negative anomalies associated with the El Nino were not present at higher latitudes (more than approximately 20 deg S) in the PCS, the extremely sparse sampling weakens our confidence in the results of the interannual analysis in this region. An upper estimate of the systematic winter bias remaining in the global CZCS data after reprocessing with the multiple scattering algorithm is given in the appendix.

Rising synchrony controls western North American ecosystems

Treesearch

Bryan A. Black; Peter van der Sleen; Emanuele Di Lorenzo; Daniel Griffin; William J. Sydeman; Jason B. Dunham; Ryan R. Rykaczewski; Marisol García-Reyes; Mohammad Safeeq; Ivan Arismendi; Steven J. Bograd

2018-01-01

Along the western margin of North America, the winter expression of the North Pacific High (NPH) strongly influences interannual variability in coastal upwelling, storm track position, precipitation, and river discharge. Coherence among these factors induces covariance among physical and biological processes across adjacent marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we...

Lake Superior: Nearshore Variability and a Landscape Driver Concept (journal article)

EPA Science Inventory

Spatial variation is well known to exist in water quality parameters of the Great Lakes nearshore, however strong patterns for extended reaches also have been observed and found to be robust across seasonal time frames. Less is known about robustness of inter-annual variation wi...

Consequences of neglecting the interannual variability of the solar resource: A case study of photovoltaic power among the Hawaiian Islands

DOE PAGES

Bryce, Richard; Losada Carreno, Ignacio; Kumler, Andrew; ...

2018-04-05

The interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions are often ignored in favor of single-year data sets for modeling power generation and evaluating the economic value of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Yet interannual variability significantly impacts the generation from one year to another of renewable power systems such as wind and PV. Consequently, the interannual variability of power generation corresponds to the interannual variability of capital returns on investment. The penetration of PV systems within the Hawaiian Electric Companies' portfolio has rapidly accelerated in recent years and is expected to continue to increase given the state's energy objectivesmore » laid out by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative. We use the National Solar Radiation Database (1998-2015) to characterize the interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions across the State of Hawaii. These data sets are passed to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisory Model (SAM) to calculate an 18-year PV power generation data set to characterize the variability of PV power generation. We calculate the interannual coefficient of variability (COV) for annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) on the order of 2% and COV for annual capacity factor on the order of 3% across the Hawaiian archipelago. Regarding the interannual variability of seasonal trends, we calculate the COV for monthly average GHI values on the order of 5% and COV for monthly capacity factor on the order of 10%. We model residential-scale and utility-scale PV systems and calculate the economic returns of each system via the payback period and the net present value. We demonstrate that studies based on single-year data sets for economic evaluations reach conclusions that deviate from the true values realized by accounting for interannual variability.« less

Consequences of neglecting the interannual variability of the solar resource: A case study of photovoltaic power among the Hawaiian Islands

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bryce, Richard; Losada Carreno, Ignacio; Kumler, Andrew

The interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions are often ignored in favor of single-year data sets for modeling power generation and evaluating the economic value of photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Yet interannual variability significantly impacts the generation from one year to another of renewable power systems such as wind and PV. Consequently, the interannual variability of power generation corresponds to the interannual variability of capital returns on investment. The penetration of PV systems within the Hawaiian Electric Companies' portfolio has rapidly accelerated in recent years and is expected to continue to increase given the state's energy objectivesmore » laid out by the Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative. We use the National Solar Radiation Database (1998-2015) to characterize the interannual variability of the solar irradiance and meteorological conditions across the State of Hawaii. These data sets are passed to the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisory Model (SAM) to calculate an 18-year PV power generation data set to characterize the variability of PV power generation. We calculate the interannual coefficient of variability (COV) for annual average global horizontal irradiance (GHI) on the order of 2% and COV for annual capacity factor on the order of 3% across the Hawaiian archipelago. Regarding the interannual variability of seasonal trends, we calculate the COV for monthly average GHI values on the order of 5% and COV for monthly capacity factor on the order of 10%. We model residential-scale and utility-scale PV systems and calculate the economic returns of each system via the payback period and the net present value. We demonstrate that studies based on single-year data sets for economic evaluations reach conclusions that deviate from the true values realized by accounting for interannual variability.« less

Simulation of Water Sources and Precipitation Recycling for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River Basins

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Chern, Jiun-Dar

2005-01-01

An atmospheric general circulation model simulation for 1948-1997 of the water budgets for the MacKenzie, Mississippi and Amazon River basins is presented. In addition to the water budget, we include passive tracers to identify the geographic sources of water for the basins, and the analysis focuses on the mechanisms contributing to precipitation recycling in each basin. While each basin s precipitation recycling has a strong dependency on evaporation during the mean annual cycle, the interannual variability of the recycling shows important relationships with the atmospheric circulation. The MacKenzie River basin has only a weak interannual dependency on evaporation, where the variations in zonal moisture transport from the Pacific Ocean can affect the basin water cycle. On the other hand, the Mississippi River basin has strong interannual dependencies on evaporation. While the precipitation recycling weakens with increased low level jet intensity, the evaporation variations exert stronger influence in providing water vapor for convective precipitation at the convective cloud base. High precipitation recycling is also found to be partly connected to warm SSTs in the tropical Pacific Ocean. The Amazon River basin evaporation exhibits small interannual variations, so that the interannual variations of precipitation recycling are related to atmospheric moisture transport from the tropical south Atlantic Ocean. Increasing SSTs over the 50-year period are causing increased easterly transport across the basin. As moisture transport increases, the Amazon precipitation recycling decreases (without real time varying vegetation changes). In addition, precipitation recycling from a bulk diagnostic method is compared to the passive tracer method used in the analysis. While the mean values are different, the interannual variations are comparable between each method. The methods also exhibit similar relationships to the terms of the basin scale water budgets.

Locally driven interannual variability of near-surface pH and ΩA in the Strait of Georgia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore-Maley, Ben L.; Allen, Susan E.; Ianson, Debby

2016-03-01

Declines in mean ocean pH and aragonite saturation state (ΩA) driven by anthropogenic CO2 emissions have raised concerns regarding the trends of pH and ΩA in estuaries. Low pH and ΩA can be harmful to a variety of marine organisms, especially those with calcium carbonate shells, and so may threaten the productive ecosystems and commercial fisheries found in many estuarine environments. The Strait of Georgia is a large, temperate, productive estuarine system with numerous wild and aquaculture shellfish and finfish populations. We determine the seasonality and variability of near-surface pH and ΩA in the Strait using a one-dimensional, biophysical, mixing layer model. We further evaluate the sensitivity of these quantities to local wind, freshwater, and cloud forcing by running the model over a wide range of scenarios using 12 years of observations. Near-surface pH and ΩA demonstrate strong seasonal cycles characterized by low pH, aragonite-undersaturated waters in winter and high pH, aragonite-supersaturated waters in summer. The aragonite saturation horizon generally lies at ˜20 m depth except in winter and during strong Fraser River freshets when it shoals to the surface. Periods of strong interannual variability in pH and aragonite saturation horizon depth arise in spring and summer. We determine that at different times of year, each of wind speed, freshwater flux, and cloud fraction are the dominant drivers of this variability. These results establish the mechanisms behind the emerging observations of highly variable near-surface carbonate chemistry in the Strait.

Interannual variability of Net Ecosystem CO2 Exchange and its component fluxes in a subalpine Mediterranean ecosystem (SE Spain)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chamizo, Sonia; Serrano-Ortiz, Penélope; Sánchez-Cañete, Enrique P.; Domingo, Francisco; Arnau-Rosalén, Eva; Oyonarte, Cecilio; Pérez-Priego, Óscar; López-Ballesteros, Ana; Kowalski, Andrew S.

2015-04-01

Recent decades under climate change have seen increasing interest in quantifying the carbon (C) balance of different terrestrial ecosystems, and their behavior as sources or sinks of C. Both CO2 exchange between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere and identification of its drivers are key to understanding land-surface feedbacks to climate change. The eddy covariance (EC) technique allows measurements of net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) from short to long time scales. In addition, flux partitioning models can extract the components of net CO2 fluxes, including both biological processes of photosynthesis or gross primary production (GPP) and respiration (Reco), and also abiotic drivers like subsoil CO2 ventilation (VE), which is of particular relevance in semiarid environments. The importance of abiotic processes together with the strong interannual variability of precipitation, which strongly affects CO2 fluxes, complicates the accurate characterization of the C balance in semiarid landscapes. In this study, we examine 10 years of interannual variability of NEE and its components at a subalpine karstic plateau, El Llano de los Juanes, in the Sierra de Gádor (Almería, SE Spain). Results show annual NEE ranging from 55 g C m-2 (net emission) to -54 g C m-2 (net uptake). Among C flux components, GPP was the greatest contributing 42-57% of summed component magnitudes, while contributions by Reco and VE ranged from 27 to 46% and from 3 to 18%, respectively. Annual precipitation during the studied period exhibited high interannual variability, ranging from 210 mm to 1374 mm. Annual precipitation explained 50% of the variance in Reco, 59% of that in GPP, and 56% for VE. While Reco and GPP were positively correlated with annual precipitation (correlation coefficient, R, of 0.71 and 0.77, respectively), VE showed negative correlation with this driver (R = -0.74). During the driest year (2004-2005), annual GPP and Reco reached their lowest values, while contribution of VE to annual NEE reached its highest value. There were also positive correlations with annual evapotranspiration (R = 0.71 for Reco and 0.64 for GPP), which explained 51% and 42% of the variance in Reco and GPP, respectively. Despite the variability in CO2 fluxes depending on the year, we can conclude that this ecosystem is approximately carbon neutral over a decade. Our results highlight the importance of considering interannual variability in CO2 fluxes, and also the need to account for abiotic contributions to the C balance in semiarid ecosystems, especially during dry years, to better predict the roles of these ecosystems in the global C balance.

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperber, Kenneth R.; Participating AMIP Modelling Groups

1999-05-01

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Are revised models better models? A skill score assessment of regional interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Participating AMIP Modelling Groups,; Sperber, Kenneth R.

Various skill scores are used to assess the performance of revised models relative to their original configurations. The interannual variability of all-India, Sahel and Nordeste rainfall and summer monsoon windshear is examined in integrations performed under the experimental design of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project. For the indices considered, the revised models exhibit greater fidelity at simulating the observed interannual variability. Interannual variability of all-India rainfall is better simulated by models that have a more realistic rainfall climatology in the vicinity of India, indicating the beneficial effect of reducing systematic model error.

Interannual variability: a crucial component of space use at the territory level.

PubMed

Uboni, Alessia; Vucetich, John A; Stahler, Daniel R; Smith, Douglas W

2015-01-01

Interannual variability in space use and how that variation is influenced by density-dependent and density-independent factors are important processes in population ecology. Nevertheless, interannual variability has been neglected by the majority of space use studies. We assessed that variation for wolves living in 15 different packs within Yellowstone National Park during a 13-year period (1996-2008). We estimated utilization distributions to quantify the intensity of space use within each pack's territory each year in summer and winter. Then, we used the volume of intersection index (VI) to quantify the extent to which space use varied from year to year. This index accounts for both the area of overlap and differences in the intensity of use throughout a territory and ranges between 0 and 1. The mean VI index was 0.49, and varied considerably, with approximately 20% of observations (n = 230) being <0.3 or >0.7. In summer, 42% of the variation was attributable to differences between packs. These differences can be attributable to learned behaviors and had never been thought to have such an influence on space use. In winter, 34% of the variation in overlap between years was attributable to interannual differences in precipitation and pack size. This result reveals the strong influence of climate on predator space use and underlies the importance of understanding how climatic factors are going to affect predator populations in the occurrence of climate change. We did not find any significant association between overlap and variables representing density-dependent processes (elk and wolf densities) or intraspecific competition (ratio of wolves to elk). This last result poses a challenge to the classic view of predator-prey systems. On a small spatial scale, predator space use may be driven by factors other than prey distribution.

Interannual Variability of Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL) and Asian Summer Monsoon Evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, C.; Lau, W. K. M.; Li, Z.

2017-12-01

The Asian Tropopause Aerosol Layer (ATAL), recently discovered from satellite observations, has drawn much attention on the need to study and better understand processes of atmospheric constituents' transportation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) and the variability of the Asian Monsoon Anticyclone (AMA). In this paper, based on analysis of 15 years (2001 - 2015) MERRA2 reanalysis data, we have investigated the interaction between the ATAL and monsoon dynamics and aerosol transport processes with respect to the variability of the AMA on interannual and intraseasonal time scales. Here, we present results showing that: (1) during pre- monsoon season, carbonaceous aerosols (CA), dust and carbon monoxide (CO)) accumulate along the southern slope of Tibetan Plateau (TP) and the Sichuan Basin of southwestern China. Surface pollutants are lofted up to UTLS by strong vertical convection, advected by the anticyclonic flow within the AMA forming ATAL during peak monsoon season, (2) during strong monsoon years (2001, 2005, 2007, 2010, 2012, 2014, 2015) the AMA peaks later, with stronger heating over TP and stronger ATAL, compared to weak monsoon years (2002, 2003, 2004, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2013). Enhanced vertical transport was also found over the top of TP during strong monsoon years, in conjunction with an enlarged and northward-shifted AMA, while near surface region was suppressed because of heavy rainout, (3) inspite of stronger precipitation wash out more dust and are transported to Indo-Gangetic Plain, and from the top of the TP to the UTLS, during peak monsoon season due to the stronger westerlies. (4) spectral analysis of aerosol and monsoon winds, shows that the ATAL can be modulated by UTLS transport processes on monsoon intraseasonal oscillations with strong quasi- biweekly time scales during strong monsoon, and strong 20-30 day quasi-periodicity during weak monsoon years.

Coral Records of 20th Century Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity: Signatures of Natural and Anthropogenic Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nurhati, I. S.; Cobb, K.; Di Lorenzo, E.

2011-12-01

Accurate forecasts of regional climate changes in many regions of the world largely depend on quantifying anthropogenic trends in tropical Pacific climate against its rich background of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. However, the strong natural climate variability combined with limited instrumental climate datasets have obscured potential anthropogenic climate signals in the region. Here, we present coral-based sea-surface temperature (SST) and salinity proxy records over the 20th century (1898-1998) from the central tropical Pacific - a region sensitive to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) whose variability strongly impacts the global climate. The SST and salinity proxy records are reconstructed via coral Sr/Ca and the oxygen isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw), respectively. On interannual (2-7yr) timescales, the SST proxy record tracks both eastern- and central-Pacific flavors of ENSO variability (R=0.65 and R=0.67, respectively). Interannual-scale salinity variability in our coral record highlights profound differences in precipitation and ocean advections during the two flavors of ENSO. On decadal (8yr-lowpassed) timescales, the central tropical Pacific SST and salinity proxy records are controlled by different sets of dynamics linked to the leading climate modes of North Pacific climate variability. Decadal-scale central tropical Pacific SST is highly correlated to the recently discovered North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO; R=-0.85), reflecting strong dynamical links between the central Pacific warming mode and extratropical decadal climate variability. Whereas decadal-scale salinity variations in the central tropical Pacific are significantly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO; R=0.54), providing a better understanding on low-frequency salinity variability in the region. Having characterized natural climate variability in this region, the coral record shows a +0.5°C warming trend throughout the last century. However, the most prominent feature of the new coral records is an unprecedented freshening trend since the mid-20th century, in line with global climate models (GCMs) projections of enhanced hydrological patterns (wet areas are getting wetter and vice versa) under greenhouse forcing. Taken together, the coral records provide key constraints on tropical Pacific climate trends that may improve regional climate projections in areas affected by tropical Pacific climate variability.
Central Tropical Pacific SST and Salinity Proxy Records

Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics.

PubMed

Koelle, Katia; Rodó, Xavier; Pascual, Mercedes; Yunus, Md; Mostafa, Golam

2005-08-04

Outbreaks of many infectious diseases, including cholera, malaria and dengue, vary over characteristic periods longer than 1 year. Evidence that climate variability drives these interannual cycles has been highly controversial, chiefly because it is difficult to isolate the contribution of environmental forcing while taking into account nonlinear epidemiological dynamics generated by mechanisms such as host immunity. Here we show that a critical interplay of environmental forcing, specifically climate variability, and temporary immunity explains the interannual disease cycles present in a four-decade cholera time series from Matlab, Bangladesh. We reconstruct the transmission rate, the key epidemiological parameter affected by extrinsic forcing, over time for the predominant strain (El Tor) with a nonlinear population model that permits a contributing effect of intrinsic immunity. Transmission shows clear interannual variability with a strong correspondence to climate patterns at long periods (over 7 years, for monsoon rains and Brahmaputra river discharge) and at shorter periods (under 7 years, for flood extent in Bangladesh, sea surface temperatures in the Bay of Bengal and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation). The importance of the interplay between extrinsic and intrinsic factors in determining disease dynamics is illustrated during refractory periods, when population susceptibility levels are low as the result of immunity and the size of cholera outbreaks only weakly reflects climate forcing.

High-resolution multi-model projections of onshore wind resources over Portugal under a changing climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogueira, Miguel; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Tomé, Ricardo; Cardoso, Rita M.

2018-05-01

We present a detailed evaluation of wind energy density (WED) over Portugal, based on the EURO-CORDEX database of high-resolution regional climate model (RCM) simulations. Most RCMs showed reasonable accuracy in reproducing the observed near-surface wind speed. The climatological patterns of WED displayed large sub-regional heterogeneity, with higher values over coastal regions and steep orography. Subsequently, we investigated the future changes of WED throughout the twenty-first century, considering mid- and end-century periods, and two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). On the yearly average, the multi-model ensemble WED changes were below 10% (15%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). However, the projected WED anomalies displayed strong seasonality, dominated by low positive values in summer (< 10% for both scenarios), negative values in winter and spring (up to - 10% (- 20%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)), and stronger negative anomalies in autumn (up to - 25% (- 35%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5)). These projected WED anomalies displayed large sub-regional variability. The largest reductions (and lowest increases) are linked to the northern and central-eastern elevated terrain, and the southwestern coast. In contrast, the largest increases (and lowest reductions) are linked to the central-western orographic features of moderate elevation. The projections also showed changes in inter-annual variability of WED, with small increases for annual averages, but with distinct behavior when considering year-to-year variability over a specific season: small increases in winter, larger increases in summer, slight decrease in autumn, and no relevant change in spring. The changes in inter-annual variability also displayed strong dependence on the underlying terrain. Finally, we found significant model spread in the magnitude of projected WED anomalies and inter-annual variability, affecting even the signal of the changes.

Seasonal and interannual variability of climate and vegetation indices across the Amazon.

PubMed

Brando, Paulo M; Goetz, Scott J; Baccini, Alessandro; Nepstad, Daniel C; Beck, Pieter S A; Christman, Mary C

2010-08-17

Drought exerts a strong influence on tropical forest metabolism, carbon stocks, and ultimately the flux of carbon to the atmosphere. Satellite-based studies have suggested that Amazon forests green up during droughts because of increased sunlight, whereas field studies have reported increased tree mortality during severe droughts. In an effort to reconcile these apparently conflicting findings, we conducted an analysis of climate data, field measurements, and improved satellite-based measures of forest photosynthetic activity. Wet-season precipitation and plant-available water (PAW) decreased over the Amazon Basin from 1996-2005, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and air dryness (expressed as vapor pressure deficit, VPD) increased from 2002-2005. Using improved enhanced vegetation index (EVI) measurements (2000-2008), we show that gross primary productivity (expressed as EVI) declined with VPD and PAW in regions of sparse canopy cover across a wide range of environments for each year of the study. In densely forested areas, no climatic variable adequately explained the Basin-wide interannual variability of EVI. Based on a site-specific study, we show that monthly EVI was relatively insensitive to leaf area index (LAI) but correlated positively with leaf flushing and PAR measured in the field. These findings suggest that production of new leaves, even when unaccompanied by associated changes in LAI, could play an important role in Basin-wide interannual EVI variability. Because EVI variability was greatest in regions of lower PAW, we hypothesize that drought could increase EVI by synchronizing leaf flushing via its effects on leaf bud development.

Interannual Variability in the Position and Strength of the East Asian Jet Stream and Its Relation to Large - scale Circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chan, Duo; Zhang, Yang; Wu, Qigang

2013-04-01

East Asian Jet Stream (EASJ) is charactered by obvious interannual variability in strength and position (latitude), with wide impacts on East Asian climate in all seasons. In this study, two indices are established to measure the interannual variability in intensity and position of EAJS. Possible causing factors, including both local signals and non-local large-scale circulation, are examined using NCAP-NCAR reanalysis data to investigate their relations with jet variation. Our analysis shows that the relationship between the interannual variations of EASJ and these factors depends on seasons. In the summer, both the intensity and position of EASJ are closely related to the meridional gradient of local surface temperature, but display no apparent relationship with the larg-scale circulation. In cold seasons (autumn, winter and spring), both the local factor and the large-scale circulation, i.e. the Pacific/North American teleconnection pattern (PNA), play important roles in the interannual variability of the jet intensity. The variability in the jet position, however, is more correlated to the Arctic Oscillation (AO), especially in winter. Diagnostic analysis indicates that transient eddy activity plays an important role in connecting the interannual variability of EASJ position with AO.

Factors controlling the interannual variation of 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jianying; Mao, Jiangyu

2018-04-01

The 30-60-day boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation (BSISO) is a dominant variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), with its intensity being quantified by intraseasonal standard deviations based on OLR data. The spatial and interannual variations of the BSISO intensity are identified via empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis for the period 1981-2014. The first EOF mode (EOF1) shows a spatially coherent enhancement or suppression of BSISO activity over the entire ASM region, and the interannual variability of this mode is related to the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) contrast between the central-eastern North Pacific (CNP) and tropical Indian Ocean. In contrast, the second mode (EOF2) exhibits a seesaw pattern between the southeastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) and equatorial western Pacific (EWP), with the interannual fluctuation linked with developing ENSO events. During strong years of EOF1 mode, the enhanced low-level westerlies induced by the summer-mean SSTA contrast between the warmer CNP and cooler tropical Indian Ocean tend to form a wetter moisture background over the eastern EIO, which interacts with intraseasonal low-level convergent flows, leading to stronger equatorial eastward propagation. The intensified easterly shear favors stronger northward propagation over the South Asian and Eastern Asian/Western North Pacific sectors, respectively. Opposite situation is for weak years. For interannual variations of EOF2 mode, the seesaw patterns with enhanced BSISO activity over the southeastern EIO while weakened activity over the EWP mostly occur in the La Niña developing summers, but inverse patterns appear in the El Niño developing summers.

Impact of the biomass burning on methane variability during dry years in the Amazon measured from an aircraft and the AIRS sensor.

PubMed

Ribeiro, Igor Oliveira; Andreoli, Rita Valéria; Kayano, Mary Toshie; de Sousa, Thaiane Rodrigues; Medeiros, Adan Sady; Guimarães, Patrícia Costa; Barbosa, Cybelli G G; Godoi, Ricardo H M; Martin, Scot T; de Souza, Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira

2018-05-15

The present study examines the spatiotemporal variability and interrelations of the atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), carbon monoxide (CO) and biomass burning (BB) outbreaks retrieved from satellite data over the Amazon region during the 2003-2012 period. In the climatological context, we found consistent seasonal cycles of BB outbreaks and CO in the Amazon, both variables showing a peak during the dry season. The dominant CO variability mode features the largest positive loadings in the southern Amazon, and describes the interannual CO variations related to BB outbreaks along the deforestation arc during the dry season. In line with CO variability and BB outbreaks, the results show strong correspondence with the spatiotemporal variability of CH 4 in the southern Amazon during years of intense drought. Indeed, the areas with the largest positive CH 4 anomalies in southern Amazon overlap the areas with high BB outbreaks and positive CO anomalies. The analyses also showed that high (low) BB outbreaks in the southern Amazon occur during dry (wet) years. In consequence, the interannual climate variability modulates the BB outbreaks in the southern Amazon, which in turn have considerable impacts on CO and CH 4 interannual variability in the region. Therefore, the BB outbreaks might play a major role in modulating the CH 4 and CO variations, at least in the southern Amazon. This study also provides a comparison between the estimate of satellite and aircraft measurements for the CH 4 over the southern Amazon, which indicates relatively small differences from the aircraft measurements in the lower troposphere, with errors ranging from 0.18% to 1.76%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of interannual variability (1979-1986) of transport and temperature on ozone as computed using a two-dimensional photochemical model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jackman, C.H.; Douglass, A.R., Chandra, S.; Stolarski, R.S.

1991-03-20

Eight years of NMC (National Meteorological Center) temperature and SBUV (solar backscattered ultraviolet) ozone data were used to calculate the monthly mean heating rates and residual circulation for use in a two-dimensional photochemical model in order to examine the interannual variability of modeled ozone. Fairly good correlations were found in the interannual behavior of modeled and measured SBUV ozone in the upper stratosphere at middle to low latitudes, where temperature dependent photochemistry is thought to dominate ozone behavior. The calculated total ozone is found to be more sensitive to the interannual residual circulation changes than to the interannual temperature changes.more » The magnitude of the modeled ozone variability is similar to the observed variability, but the observed and modeled year to year deviations are mostly uncorrelated. The large component of the observed total ozone variability at low latitudes due to the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is not seen in the modeled total ozone, as only a small QBO signal is present in the heating rates, temperatures, and monthly mean residual circulation. Large interanual changes in tropospheric dynamics are believed to influence the interannual variability in the total ozone, especially at middle and high latitudes. Since these tropospheric changes and most of the QBO forcing are not included in the model formulation, it is not surprising that the interannual variability in total ozione is not well represented in the model computations.« less

Characteristics of the East Asian Winter Climate Associated with the Westerly Jet Stream and ENSO

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

In this study, the influences of the East Asian jet stream (EAJS) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the interannual variability of the East Asian winter climate are examined with a focus on the relative climate impacts of the two phenomena. Although the variations of the East Asian winter monsoon and the temperature and precipitation of China, Japan, and Korea are emphasized, the associated changes in the broad-scale atmospheric circulation patterns over Asia and the Pacific and in the extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) are also investigated. It is demonstrated that there is no apparent relationship between ENSO and the interannual variability of EAJS core. The EAJS and ENSO are associated with distinctly different patterns of atmospheric circulation and SST in the Asian-Pacific regions. While ENSO causes major climate signals in the Tropics and over the North Pacific east of the dateline, the EAJS produces significant changes in the atmospheric circulation over East Asia and western Pacific. In particular, the EAJS explains larger variance of the interannual signals of the East Asian trough, the Asian continental high, the Aleutian low, and the East Asian winter monsoon. When the EAJS is strong, all these atmospheric systems intensify significantly. The response of surface temperature and precipitation to EAJS variability and ENSO is more complex. In general, the East Asian winter climate is cold (warm) and dry (wet) when the EAJS is strong (weak) and it is warm during El Nino years. However, different climate signals are found during different La Nina years. In terms of linear correlation, both the temperature and precipitation of northern China, Korea, and central Japan are more significantly associated with the EAJS than with ENSO.

Influence of Leaf Area Index Prescriptions on Simulations of Heat, Moisture, and Carbon Fluxes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kala, Jatin; Decker, Mark; Exbrayat, Jean-Francois; Pitman, Andy J.; Carouge, Claire; Evans, Jason P.; Abramowitz, Gab; Mocko, David

2013-01-01

Leaf-area index (LAI), the total one-sided surface area of leaf per ground surface area, is a key component of land surface models. We investigate the influence of differing, plausible LAI prescriptions on heat, moisture, and carbon fluxes simulated by the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLEv1.4b) model over the Australian continent. A 15-member ensemble monthly LAI data-set is generated using the MODIS LAI product and gridded observations of temperature and precipitation. Offline simulations lasting 29 years (1980-2008) are carried out at 25 km resolution with the composite monthly means from the MODIS LAI product (control simulation) and compared with simulations using each of the 15-member ensemble monthly-varying LAI data-sets generated. The imposed changes in LAI did not strongly influence the sensible and latent fluxes but the carbon fluxes were more strongly affected. Croplands showed the largest sensitivity in gross primary production with differences ranging from -90 to 60 %. PFTs with high absolute LAI and low inter-annual variability, such as evergreen broadleaf trees, showed the least response to the different LAI prescriptions, whilst those with lower absolute LAI and higher inter-annual variability, such as croplands, were more sensitive. We show that reliance on a single LAI prescription may not accurately reflect the uncertainty in the simulation of the terrestrial carbon fluxes, especially for PFTs with high inter-annual variability. Our study highlights that the accurate representation of LAI in land surface models is key to the simulation of the terrestrial carbon cycle. Hence this will become critical in quantifying the uncertainty in future changes in primary production.

Determination of Arctic sea ice variability modes on interannual timescales via nonhierarchical clustering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fučkar, Neven-Stjepan; Guemas, Virginie; Massonnet, François; Doblas-Reyes, Francisco

2015-04-01

Over the modern observational era, the northern hemisphere sea ice concentration, age and thickness have experienced a sharp long-term decline superimposed with strong internal variability. Hence, there is a crucial need to identify robust patterns of Arctic sea ice variability on interannual timescales and disentangle them from the long-term trend in noisy datasets. The principal component analysis (PCA) is a versatile and broadly used method for the study of climate variability. However, the PCA has several limiting aspects because it assumes that all modes of variability have symmetry between positive and negative phases, and suppresses nonlinearities by using a linear covariance matrix. Clustering methods offer an alternative set of dimension reduction tools that are more robust and capable of taking into account possible nonlinear characteristics of a climate field. Cluster analysis aggregates data into groups or clusters based on their distance, to simultaneously minimize the distance between data points in a given cluster and maximize the distance between the centers of the clusters. We extract modes of Arctic interannual sea-ice variability with nonhierarchical K-means cluster analysis and investigate the mechanisms leading to these modes. Our focus is on the sea ice thickness (SIT) as the base variable for clustering because SIT holds most of the climate memory for variability and predictability on interannual timescales. We primarily use global reconstructions of sea ice fields with a state-of-the-art ocean-sea-ice model, but we also verify the robustness of determined clusters in other Arctic sea ice datasets. Applied cluster analysis over the 1958-2013 period shows that the optimal number of detrended SIT clusters is K=3. Determined SIT cluster patterns and their time series of occurrence are rather similar between different seasons and months. Two opposite thermodynamic modes are characterized with prevailing negative or positive SIT anomalies over the Arctic basin. The intermediate mode, with negative anomalies centered on the East Siberian shelf and positive anomalies along the North American side of the basin, has predominately dynamic characteristics. The associated sea ice concentration (SIC) clusters vary more between different seasons and months, but the SIC patterns are physically framed by the SIT cluster patterns.

Federal fire managers' perceptions of the importance, scarcity and substitutability of suppression resources

Treesearch

Crystal S. Stonesifer; David E. Calkin; Michael S. Hand

2017-01-01

Wildland firefighting in the United States is a complex and costly enterprise. While there are strong seasonal signatures for fire occurrence in specific regions of the United States, spatiotemporal occurrence of wildfire activity can have high inter-annual variability. Suppression resources come from a variety of jurisdictions and provide a wide range of skills,...

Interannual variability of the physical characteristics of North Thermaikos Gulf (NW Aegean Sea)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krestenitis, Yannis N.; Kombiadou, Katerina D.; Androulidakis, Yannis S.

2012-08-01

Thermaikos Gulf is a marine ecosystem of major importance, not only environmental, but also due to the various socioeconomic activities associated with the area. The physical characteristics of the gulf's waters were studied, analyzing in situ measurements of oceanographic parameters, collected during 5 oceanographic surveys from 1994 to 2007, on the same grid of 26 sampling stations. Aim of this paper is the detection and description of the main changes (seasonal and interannual) in the water masses' characteristics that are related to the seawater quality of the North Thermaikos. The connection between the main forcing factors and the major circulation patterns is also under investigation. The interannual analysis of the collected data revealed the existence of strong seasonal fluctuations that present significant deviations from a mean seasonal pattern in specific periods. A general decreasing trend of the salinities of the domain is observed during the study period. At the same time, a strong relation between open Aegean Sea waters and riverine freshwater fluxes is identified, factors that significantly influence stratification, circulation and renewal of the gulf. Based on the thermohaline properties, two dense water formation events (February 2000 and 2005), not previously reported, are detected and analyzed for the first time.

The roles of static stability and tropical-extratropical interactions in the summer interannual variability of the North Atlantic sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mbengue, Cheikh Oumar; Woollings, Tim; Dacre, Helen F.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2018-04-01

Summer seasonal forecast skill in the North Atlantic sector is lower than winter skill. To identify potential controls on predictability, the sensitivity of North Atlantic baroclinicity to atmospheric drivers is quantified. Using ERA-INTERIM reanalysis data, North Atlantic storm-track baroclinicity is shown to be less sensitive to meridional temperature-gradient variability in summer. Static stability shapes the sector's interannual variability by modulating the sensitivity of baroclinicity to variations in meridional temperature gradients and tropopause height and by modifying the baroclinicity itself. High static stability anomalies at upper levels result in more zonal extratropical cyclone tracks and higher eddy kinetic energy over the British Isles in the summertime. These static stability anomalies are not strongly related to the summer NAO; but they are correlated with the suppression of convection over the tropical Atlantic and with a poleward-shifted subtropical jet. These results suggest a non-local driver of North Atlantic variability. Furthermore, they imply that improved representations of convection over the south-eastern part of North America and the tropical Atlantic might improve summer seasonal forecast skill.

Interannual Variability of Sea Level in Tropical Pacific during 1993-2014

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, X.; Greatbatch, R. J.; Claus, M.

2016-12-01

More than 40 years ago, sea level variability in the tropical Pacific was being studied using linear shallow water models driven by observed estimates of the surface wind stress. At that time, the only available sea level data was from the sparse tide gauge record. However, with the advent of satellite data, there has been a revolution in the available data coverage for sea level. Here, a linear model, consisting of the first five baroclinic normal modes, and driven by ERA-Interim monthly wind stress anomalies, is used to investigate interannual variability in tropical Pacific sea level as seen in satellite altimeter data. The model output is fitted to the altimeter data along the equator, in order to derive the vertical profile for the wind forcing, and showing that a signature from modes higher than mode six cannot be extracted from the altimeter data. It is shown that the model has considerable skill at capturing interannual sea level variability both on and off the equator. The correlation between modelled and satellite-derived sea level data exceeds 0.8 over a wide range of longitudes along the equator and readily captures the observed ENSO events. Overall, the combination of the first, second and third and fifth modes can provide a robust estimate of the interannual sea level variability, the second mode being the most dominant. A remarkable feature of both the model and the altimeter data is the presence of a pivot point in the western Pacific on the equator. We show that the westward displacement of the pivot point from the centre of the basin is partly a signature of the recharge/discharge mechanism but is also strongly influenced by the fact that most of the wind stress variance along the equator is found in the western part of the basin. We also show that the Sverdrup transport plays no role in the recharge/discharge mechanism in our model.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of ocean conditions and forage taxa reveal regional structuring of seabird–prey relationships.

PubMed

Santora, Jarrod A; Schroeder, Isaac D; Field, John C; Wells, Brian K; Sydeman, William J

Studies of predator–prey demographic responses and the physical drivers of such relationships are rare, yet essential for predicting future changes in the structure and dynamics of marine ecosystems. Here, we hypothesize that predator–prey relationships vary spatially in association with underlying physical ocean conditions, leading to observable changes in demographic rates, such as reproduction. To test this hypothesis, we quantified spatio-temporal variability in hydrographic conditions, krill, and forage fish to model predator (seabird) demographic responses over 18 years (1990–2007). We used principal component analysis and spatial correlation maps to assess coherence among ocean conditions, krill, and forage fish, and generalized additive models to quantify interannual variability in seabird breeding success relative to prey abundance. The first principal component of four hydrographic measurements yielded an index that partitioned “warm/weak upwelling” and “cool/strong upwelling” years. Partitioning of krill and forage fish time series among shelf and oceanic regions yielded spatially explicit indicators of prey availability. Krill abundance within the oceanic region was remarkably consistent between years, whereas krill over the shelf showed marked interannual fluctuations in relation to ocean conditions. Anchovy abundance varied on the shelf, and was greater in years of strong stratification, weak upwelling and warmer temperatures. Spatio-temporal variability of juvenile forage fish co-varied strongly with each other and with krill, but was weakly correlated with hydrographic conditions. Demographic responses between seabirds and prey availability revealed spatially variable associations indicative of the dynamic nature of “predator–habitat” relationships. Quantification of spatially explicit demographic responses, and their variability through time, demonstrate the possibility of delineating specific critical areas where the implementation of protective measures could maintain functions and productivity of central place foraging predators.

Revisiting the Processes That Determine Wintertime Intraseasonal SST Variability in the Thermocline Ridge of the Tropical South Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, W.; Li, Y.; Shinoda, T.; Wang, C.; Ravichandran, M.; Wang, J. W.

2014-12-01

Intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the Seychelles-Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) induced by boreal wintertime Madden-Julian oscillations (MJOs) is investigated by performing a series of OGCM experiments with improved model configuration and the recently available high quality satellite forcing fields. The impact of the ocean interannual variation of the thermocline depth -represented by the depth of 20C isotherm (D20) - in the SCTR is also assessed. The OGCM main run solution agrees well with the observations. The results show that for the 2001-2011 period, surface shortwave radiation (SWR), turbulent heat fluxes associated with wind speed, and wind stress-driven ocean dynamical processes are all important in causing the MJO-related intraseasonal SST variability in the SCTR region. Overall, forcing by SWR contributes ~31%, and forcing by winds (via both surface turbulent heat flux and ocean dynamics) contributes ~62%. The contribution of turbulent heat flux associated with wind speed is ~39% and that of wind-stress driven ocean dynamics is ~23%. The contribution of ocean dynamics, however, is considerably larger during strong ("prime") MJO events under "strong" thermocline condition. The overall effect of interannual variability of D20 on intraseasonal SST during 2001-2011 is significant in the eastern part of the SCTR (70E-85E), where the intraseasonal SST amplitudes are strengthened by about 20%. In general, a shallower/deeper SCTR favors larger/smaller SST responses to the MJO forcing. In the eastern SCTR, both the heat flux forcing and entrainment are greatly amplified under the strong SCTR condition, but only slightly suppressed under the weak SCTR condition, leading to an overall strengthening effect on intraseasonal SST variability.

Surfing wave climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, Antonio; Losada, Iñigo J.; Méndez, Fernando J.

2014-10-01

International surfing destinations are highly dependent on specific combinations of wind-wave formation, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. Surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, and analyses of surf quality require the consideration of the seasonal, interannual and long-term variability of surf conditions on a global scale. A multivariable standardized index based on expert judgment is proposed for this purpose. This index makes it possible to analyze surf conditions objectively over a global domain. A summary of global surf resources based on a new index integrating existing wave, wind, tides and sea surface temperature databases is presented. According to general atmospheric circulation and swell propagation patterns, results show that west-facing low to middle-latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Month-to-month analysis reveals strong seasonal variations in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing the frequency of such events in the North Atlantic and the North Pacific. Interannual variability was investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional modes of low-frequency climate variability such as El Niño and the North Atlantic Oscillation, revealing their strong influence at both the global and the regional scale. Results of the long-term trends demonstrate an increase in the probability of surfable events on west-facing coasts around the world in recent years. The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers, the surf tourism industry and surf-related coastal planners and stakeholders.

Interannual Variability in Soil Trace Gas (CO2, N2O, NO) Fluxes and Analysis of Controllers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Potter, C.; Klooster, S.; Peterson, David L. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Interannual variability in flux rates of biogenic trace gases must be quantified in order to understand the differences between short-term trends and actual long-term change in biosphere-atmosphere interactions. We simulated interannual patterns (1983-1988) of global trace gas fluxes from soils using the NASA Ames model version of CASA (Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach) in a transient simulation mode. This ecosystem model has been recalibrated for simulations driven by satellite vegetation index data from the NOAA Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) over the mid-1980s. The predicted interannual pattern of soil heterotropic CO2 emissions indicates that relatively large increases in global carbon flux from soils occurred about three years following the strong El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event of 1983. Results for the years 1986 and 1987 showed an annual increment of +1 Pg (1015 g) C-CO2 emitted from soils, which tended to dampen the estimated global increase in net ecosystem production with about a two year lag period relative to plant carbon fixation. Zonal discrimination of model results implies that 80-90 percent of the yearly positive increments in soil CO2 emission during 1986-87 were attributable to soil organic matter decomposition in the low-latitudes (between 30 N and 30 S). Soils of the northern middle-latitude zone (between 30 N and 60 N) accounted for the residual of these annual increments. Total annual emissions of nitrogen trace gases (N2O and NO) from soils were estimated to vary from 2-4 percent over the time period modeled, a level of variability which is consistent with predicted interannual fluctuations in global soil CO2 fluxes. Interannual variability of precipitation in tropical and subtropical zones (30 N to 20 S appeared to drive the dynamic inverse relationship between higher annual emissions of NO versus emissions of N2O. Global mean emission rates from natural (heterotrophic) soil sources over the period modeled (1983-1988) were estimated at 57.1 Pg C-CO2yr-1, 9.8Tg (1012 g) N-NO yr-1, and 9.7 Tg N-N2O yr-1. Chemical fertilizer contributions to global soil N gas fluxes were estimated at between 1.3 to 7.3 Tg N-NO yr-1, and 1.2 to 4.0 Tg N-N2O yr-1.

Inter-annual variability and long term predictability of exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boutov, Dmitri; Peliz, Álvaro; Miranda, Pedro M. A.; Soares, Pedro M. M.; Cardoso, Rita M.; Prieto, Laura; Ruiz, Javier; García-Lafuente, Jesus

2014-03-01

Inter-annual variability of calculated barotropic (netflow) and simulated baroclinic (inflow and outflow) exchanges through the Strait of Gibraltar is analyzed and their response to the main modes of atmospheric variability is investigated. Time series of the outflow obtained by high resolution simulations and estimated from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) current measurements are compared. The time coefficients (TC) of the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes that describe zonal atmospheric circulation in the vicinity of the Strait (1st and 3rd of Sea-Level Pressure (SLP) and 1st of the wind) show significant covariance with the inflow and outflow. Based on these analyses, a regression model between these SLP TCs and outflow of the Mediterranean Water was developed. This regression outflow time series was compared with estimates based on current meter observations and the predictability and reconstruction of past exchange variability based on atmospheric pressure fields are discussed. The simple regression model seems to reproduce the outflow evolution fairly reasonably, with the exception of the year 2008, which is apparently anomalous without available physical explanation yet. The exchange time series show a reduced inter-annual variability (less than 1%, 2.6% and 3.1% of total 2-day variability, for netflow, inflow and outflow, respectively). From a statistical point of view no clear long-term tendencies were revealed. Anomalously high baroclinic fluxes are reported for the years of 2000-2001 that are coincident with strong impact on the Alboran Sea ecosystem. The origin of the anomalous flow is associated with a strong negative anomaly (~ - 9 hPa) in atmospheric pressure fields settled north of Iberian Peninsula and extending over the central Atlantic, favoring an increased zonal circulation in winter 2000/2001. These low pressure fields forced intense and durable westerly winds in the Gulf of Cadiz-Alboran system. The signal of this anomaly is also seen in time coefficients of the most significant EOF modes. The predictability of the exchanges for future climate is discussed.

Stable Carbon Isotopes in Treerings; Revisiting the Paleocloud Proxy.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gagen, M.; Zorita, E.; Dorado Liñán, I.; Loader, N.; McCarroll, D.; Robertson, I.; Young, G.

2017-12-01

The long term relationship between cloud cover and temperature is one of the most important climate feedbacks contributing to determining the value of climate sensitivity. Climate models still reveal a large spread in the simulation of changes in cloud cover under future warming scenarios and clarity might be aided by a picture of the past variability of cloudiness. Stable carbon isotope ratios from tree ring records have been successfully piloted as a palaeocloud proxy in geographical areas traditionally producing strong dendroclimatological reconstructions (high northern latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere) and with some notable successes elsewhere too. An expansion of tree-ring based palaeocloud reconstructions might help to estimate past variations of cloud cover in periods colder or warmer than the 20th century, providing a way to test model test this specific aspect. Calibration with measured instrumental sunshine and cloud data reveals stable carbon isotope ratios from tree rings as an indicator of incoming short wave solar radiation (SWR) in non-moisture stressed sites, but the statistical identification of the SWR signal is hampered by its interannual co-variability with air temperature during the growing season. Here we present a spatio-temporal statistical analysis of a multivariate stable carbon isotope tree ring data set over Europe to assess its usefulness to reconstruct past solar radiation changes. The interannual co-variability of the tree ring records stronger covariation with SWR than with air temperature. The resulting spatial patterns of interannual co-variability are strongly linked to atmospheric circulation in a physically consistent manner. However, the multidecadal variations in the proxy records show a less physically coherent picture. We explore whether atmospheric corrections applied to the proxy series are contributing to differences in the multi decadal signal and investigate whether multidecadal variations in soil moisture perturb the SWR. Preliminary results of strategies to bypass these problems are explored.

Seasonal and interannual variability of climate and vegetation indices across the Amazon

PubMed Central

Brando, Paulo M.; Goetz, Scott J.; Baccini, Alessandro; Nepstad, Daniel C.; Beck, Pieter S. A.; Christman, Mary C.

2010-01-01

Drought exerts a strong influence on tropical forest metabolism, carbon stocks, and ultimately the flux of carbon to the atmosphere. Satellite-based studies have suggested that Amazon forests green up during droughts because of increased sunlight, whereas field studies have reported increased tree mortality during severe droughts. In an effort to reconcile these apparently conflicting findings, we conducted an analysis of climate data, field measurements, and improved satellite-based measures of forest photosynthetic activity. Wet-season precipitation and plant-available water (PAW) decreased over the Amazon Basin from 1996−2005, and photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and air dryness (expressed as vapor pressure deficit, VPD) increased from 2002–2005. Using improved enhanced vegetation index (EVI) measurements (2000–2008), we show that gross primary productivity (expressed as EVI) declined with VPD and PAW in regions of sparse canopy cover across a wide range of environments for each year of the study. In densely forested areas, no climatic variable adequately explained the Basin-wide interannual variability of EVI. Based on a site-specific study, we show that monthly EVI was relatively insensitive to leaf area index (LAI) but correlated positively with leaf flushing and PAR measured in the field. These findings suggest that production of new leaves, even when unaccompanied by associated changes in LAI, could play an important role in Basin-wide interannual EVI variability. Because EVI variability was greatest in regions of lower PAW, we hypothesize that drought could increase EVI by synchronizing leaf flushing via its effects on leaf bud development. PMID:20679201

Interannual to decadal variability of circulation in the northern Japan/East Sea, 1958-2006

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stepanov, Dmitry; Stepanova, Victoriia; Gusev, Anatoly

2015-04-01

We use a numerical ocean model INMOM (Institute of Numerical Mathematics Ocean Model) and atmospheric forcing data extracted from the CORE (Coordinated Ocean Reference Experiments) dataset and reconstruct a circulation in the Japan/East Sea (JES) from 1958 to 2006 and its interannual and decadal variability in the intermediate and abyssal layers in the northern JES. It is founded that the circulation is cyclonic over the course of a climatological year. The circulation increases in spring and decreases in autumn. We analyzes the relative vorticity (RV) averaged over the Japan Basin (JB) and show that the variability is characterized by the interannual oscillations (2.3, 3.7 and 4.7 years) and decadal variability (9.5 and 14.3 years). The spectrum structure of the average RV variability does not change with depth; however, the energy of the decadal oscillations decreases in contrast to that of the interannual oscillations. We analyze monthly anomalies of the wind stress curl and sensible heat flux and reveal that interannual variability (3-4 years) of the circulation over the JB result from 4-year variability of the wind stress curl. In contrast, the decadal variability (period of 9.5 years) of the circulation over the JB is generated by both the wind stress curl and the decadal variability in deep convection.

Temperature and precipitation drive temporal variability in aquatic carbon and GHG concentrations and fluxes in a peatland catchment.

PubMed

Dinsmore, K J; Billett, M F; Dyson, K E

2013-07-01

The aquatic pathway is increasingly being recognized as an important component of catchment carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) budgets, particularly in peatland systems due to their large carbon store and strong hydrological connectivity. In this study, we present a complete 5-year data set of all aquatic carbon and GHG species from an ombrotrophic Scottish peatland. Measured species include particulate and dissolved forms of organic carbon (POC, DOC), dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), CO2 , CH4 and N2 O. We show that short-term variability in concentrations exists across all species and this is strongly linked to discharge. Seasonal cyclicity was only evident in DOC, CO2 and CH4 concentration; however, temperature correlated with monthly means in all species except DIC. Although the temperature correlation with monthly DOC and POC concentrations appeared to be related to biological productivity in the terrestrial system, we suggest the temperature correlation with CO2 and CH4 was primarily due to in-stream temperature-dependent solubility. Interannual variability in total aquatic carbon concentration was strongly correlated with catchment gross primary productivity (GPP) indicating a strong potential terrestrial aquatic linkage. DOC represented the largest aquatic carbon flux term (19.3 ± 4.59 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) ), followed by CO2 evasion (10.0 g C m(-2)  yr(-1) ). Despite an estimated contribution to the total aquatic carbon flux of between 8 and 48%, evasion estimates had the greatest uncertainty. Interannual variability in total aquatic carbon export was low in comparison with variability in terrestrial biosphere-atmosphere exchange, and could be explained primarily by temperature and precipitation. Our results therefore suggest that climatic change is likely to have a significant impact on annual carbon losses through the aquatic pathway, and as such, aquatic exports are fundamental to the understanding of whole catchment responses to climate change. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

The response of the southwest Western Australian wave climate to Indian Ocean climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hetzel, Yasha; Wijeratne, E. M. S.

2018-03-01

Knowledge of regional wave climates is critical for coastal planning, management, and protection. In order to develop a regional wave climate, it is important to understand the atmospheric systems responsible for wave generation. This study examines the variability of the southwest Western Australian (SWWA) shelf and nearshore wind wave climate and its relationship to southern hemisphere climate variability represented by various atmospheric indices: the southern oscillation index (SOI), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Indian Ocean Dipole Mode Index (DMI), the Indian Ocean Subtropical Dipole (IOSD), the latitudinal position of the subtropical high-pressure ridge (STRP), and the corresponding intensity of the subtropical ridge (STRI). A 21-year wave hindcast (1994-2014) of the SWWA continental shelf was created using the third generation wave model Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN), to analyse the seasonal and inter-annual wave climate variability and its relationship to the atmospheric regime. Strong relationships between wave heights and the STRP and the STRI, a moderate correlation between the wave climate and the SAM, and no significant correlation between SOI, DMI, and IOSD and the wave climate were found. Strong spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual variability, as well as seasonal longer-term trends in the mean wave climate were studied and linked to the latitudinal changes in the subtropical high-pressure ridge and the Southern Ocean storm belt. As the Southern Ocean storm belt and the subtropical high-pressure ridge shifted southward (northward) wave heights on the SWWA shelf region decreased (increased). The wave height anomalies appear to be driven by the same atmospheric conditions that influence rainfall variability in SWWA.

Interannual Variability of Snow and Ice and Impact on the Carbon Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2004-01-01

The goal of this research is to assess the impact of the interannual variability in snow/ice using global satellite data sets acquired in the last two decades. This variability will be used as input to simulate the CO2 interannual variability at high latitudes using a biospheric model. The progress in the past few years is summarized as follows: 1) Albedo decrease related to spring snow retreat; 2) Observed effects of interannual summertime sea ice variations on the polar reflectance; 3) The Northern Annular Mode response to Arctic sea ice loss and the sensitivity of troposphere-stratosphere interaction; 4) The effect of Arctic warming and sea ice loss on the growing season in northern terrestrial ecosystem.

Cool-Season Moisture Delivery and Multi-Basin Streamflow Anomalies in the Western United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malevich, Steven B.

Widespread droughts can have a significant impact on western United States streamflow, but the causes of these events are not fully understood. This dissertation examines streamflow from multiple western US basins and establishes the robust, leading modes of variability in interannual streamflow throughout the past century. I show that approximately 50% of this variability is associated with spatially widespread streamflow anomalies that are statistically independent from streamflow's response to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The ENSO-teleconnection accounts for approximately 25% of the interannual variability in streamflow, across this network. These atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with the most spatially widespread variability are associated with the Aleutian low and the persistent coastal atmospheric ridge in the Pacific Northwest. I use a watershed segmentation algorithm to explicitly track the position and intensity of these features and compare their variability to the multi-basin streamflow variability. Results show that latitudinal shifts in the coastal atmospheric ridge are more strongly associated with streamflow's north-south dipole response to ENSO variability while more spatially widespread anomalies in streamflow most strongly relate to seasonal changes in the coastal ridge intensity. This likely reflects persistent coastal ridge blocking of cool-season precipitation into western US river basins. I utilize the 35 model runs of the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESMLE) to determine whether the model ensemble simulates the anomalously strong coastal ridges and extreme widespread wintertime precipitation anomalies found in the observation record. Though there is considerable bias in the CESMLE, the CESMLE runs simulate extremely widespread dry precipitation anomalies with a frequency of approximately one extreme event per century during the historical simulations (1920 - 2005). These extremely widespread dry events correspond significantly with anomalously intense coastal atmospheric ridges. The results from these three papers connect widespread interannual streamflow anomalies in the western US--and especially extremely widespread streamflow droughts--with semi-permanent atmospheric ridge anomalies near the coastal Pacific Northwest. This is important to western US water managers because these widespread events appear to have been a robust feature of the past century. The semi-permanent atmospheric features associated with these widespread dry streamflow anomalies are projected to change position significantly in the next century as a response to global climate change. This may change widespread streamflow anomaly characteristic in the western US, though my results do not show evidence of these changes within the instrument record of last century.

Effects of ocean-atmosphere coupling on rainfall over the Indian Ocean and northwestern Pacific Ocean during boreal summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Z. Q.; Xie, S. P.; Zhou, W.

2016-12-01

Atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM), forced with specified SST, has been widely used in climate studies. On one hand, AGCM is much faster to run compared to coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Also, the identical SST forcing allows a clean evaluation of the atmospheric component of CGCM. On the other hand, the coupling between atmosphere and ocean is missed in such atmosphere-only simulations. It is not clear how such simplification could affect the simulate of the atmosphere. In this study, the impact of ocean-atmosphere coupling is studied by comparing a CGCM simulation with an AGCM simulation which is forced with monthly SSTs specified from the CGCM simulation. Particularly, we focus on the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall over the IONWP during boreal summer. The IONWP is a unique region with a strong negative correlation between sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall during boreal summer on the interannual time scale. The lead/lag correlation analysis suggests a negative feedback of rainfall on SST, which is only reasonably captured by CGCMs. We find that the lack of the negative feedback in AGCM not only enhances the climatology and interannual variability of rainfall but also increases the internal variability of rainfall over the IONWP. A simple mechanism is proposed to explain such enhancement. In addition, AGCM is able to capture the large-scale rainfall pattern over the IONWP during boreal summer, this is because that rainfall here is caused by remote ENSO effect on the interannual time scale. Our results herein suggest that people should be more careful when using an AGCM for climate change studies.

Interannual Variability in Amundsen Sea Ice-Shelf Height Change Linked to ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Paolo, F. S.; Fricker, H. A.; Padman, L.

2015-12-01

Atmospheric and sea-ice conditions around Antarctica, particularly in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen seas, respond to climate dynamics in the tropical Pacific Ocean on interannual time scales including the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It has been hypothesized that the mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, including its floating ice shelves, also responds to this climate signal; however, this has not yet been unambiguously demonstrated. We apply multivariate singular spectrum analysis (MSSA) to our 18-year (1994-2012) time series of ice-shelf height in the Amundsen Sea (AS) region. This advanced spectral method distinguishes between regular deterministic behavior ("cycles") at sub-decadal time scale and irregular behavior ("noise") at shorter time scales. Although the long-term trends of AS ice-shelf height changes are much larger than the range of interannual variability, the short-term rate of change dh/dt can vary about the trend by more than 50%. The mode of interannual variability in the AS ice-shelf height is strongly correlated with the low-frequency mode of ENSO (periodicity of ~4.5 years) as represented by the Southern Oscillation Index. The ice-shelf height in the AS is expected to respond to changes in precipitation and inflows of warm subsurface Circumpolar Deep Water (CDW) into the ocean cavities under the ice shelves, altering basal melt rates. Since both of these processes affecting ice-shelf mass balance respond to changes in wind fields for different ENSO states, we expect some correlation between them. We will describe the spatial structure of AS ice-shelf height response to ENSO, and attempt to distinguish the precipitation signal from basal mass balance due to changing CDW inflows.

Effects of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of evapotranspiration in a coniferous plantation in subtropical China.

PubMed

Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

2014-01-01

Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003-2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003-2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May-June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation.

Effects of Climatic Factors and Ecosystem Responses on the Inter-Annual Variability of Evapotranspiration in a Coniferous Plantation in Subtropical China

PubMed Central

Xu, Mingjie; Wen, Xuefa; Wang, Huimin; Zhang, Wenjiang; Dai, Xiaoqin; Song, Jie; Wang, Yidong; Fu, Xiaoli; Liu, Yunfen; Sun, Xiaomin; Yu, Guirui

2014-01-01

Because evapotranspiration (ET) is the second largest component of the water cycle and a critical process in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding the inter-annual variability of ET is important in the context of global climate change. Eight years of continuous eddy covariance measurements (2003–2010) in a subtropical coniferous plantation were used to investigate the impacts of climatic factors and ecosystem responses on the inter-annual variability of ET. The mean and standard deviation of annual ET for 2003–2010 were 786.9 and 103.4 mm (with a coefficient of variation of 13.1%), respectively. The inter-annual variability of ET was largely created in three periods: March, May–June, and October, which are the transition periods between seasons. A set of look-up table approaches were used to separate the sources of inter-annual variability of ET. The annual ETs were calculated by assuming that (a) both the climate and ecosystem responses among years are variable (Vcli-eco), (b) the climate is variable but the ecosystem responses are constant (Vcli), and (c) the climate is constant but ecosystem responses are variable (Veco). The ETs that were calculated under the above assumptions suggested that the inter-annual variability of ET was dominated by ecosystem responses and that there was a negative interaction between the effects of climate and ecosystem responses. These results suggested that for long-term predictions of water and energy balance in global climate change projections, the ecosystem responses must be taken into account to better constrain the uncertainties associated with estimation. PMID:24465610

ENSO Modulations due to Interannual Variability of Freshwater Forcing and Ocean Biology-induced Heating in the Tropical Pacific

PubMed Central

Zhang, Rong-Hua; Gao, Chuan; Kang, Xianbiao; Zhi, Hai; Wang, Zhanggui; Feng, Licheng

2015-01-01

Recent studies have identified clear climate feedbacks associated with interannual variations in freshwater forcing (FWF) and ocean biology-induced heating (OBH) in the tropical Pacific. The interrelationships among the related anomaly fields are analyzed using hybrid coupled model (HCM) simulations to illustrate their combined roles in modulating the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The HCM-based supporting experiments are performed to isolate the related feedbacks, with interannually varying FWF and OBH being represented individually or collectively, which allows their effects to be examined in a clear way. It is demonstrated that the interannual freshwater forcing enhances ENSO variability and slightly prolongs the simulated ENSO period, while the interannual OBH reduces ENSO variability and slightly shortens the ENSO period, with their feedback effects tending to counteract each other. PMID:26678931

Basinwide response of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to interannual wind forcing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, Jian

2017-12-01

An eddy-resolving Ocean general circulation model For the Earth Simulator (OFES) and a simple wind-driven two-layer model are used to investigate the role of momentum fluxes in driving the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability throughout the Atlantic basin from 1950 to 2010. Diagnostic analysis using the OFES results suggests that interior baroclinic Rossby waves and coastal topographic waves play essential roles in modulating the AMOC interannual variability. The proposed mechanisms are verified in the context of a simple two-layer model with realistic topography and only forced by surface wind. The topographic waves communicate high-latitude anomalies into lower latitudes and account for about 50% of the AMOC interannual variability in the subtropics. In addition, the large scale Rossby waves excited by wind forcing together with topographic waves set up coherent AMOC interannual variability patterns across the tropics and subtropics. The comparisons between the simple model and OFES results suggest that a large fraction of the AMOC interannual variability in the Atlantic basin can be explained by wind-driven dynamics.

Physical associations to spring phytoplankton biomass interannual variability in the U.S. Northeast Continental Shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saba, Vincent S.; Hyde, Kimberly J. W.; Rebuck, Nathan D.; Friedland, Kevin D.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Kahru, Mati; Fogarty, Michael J.

2015-02-01

The continental shelf of the Northeast United States and Nova Scotia is a productive marine ecosystem that supports a robust biomass of living marine resources. Understanding marine ecosystem sensitivity to changes in the physical environment can start with the first-order response of phytoplankton (i.e., chlorophyll a), the base of the marine food web. However, the primary physical associations to the interannual variability of chlorophyll a in these waters are unclear. Here we used ocean color satellite measurements and identified the local and remote physical associations to interannual variability of spring surface chlorophyll a from 1998 to 2013. The highest interannual variability of chlorophyll a occurred in March and April on the northern flank of Georges Bank, the western Gulf of Maine, and Nantucket Shoals. Complex interactions between winter wind speed over the Shelf, local winter water levels, and the relative proportions of Atlantic versus Labrador Sea source waters entering the Gulf of Maine from the previous summer/fall were associated with the variability of March/April chlorophyll a in Georges Bank and the Gulf of Maine. Sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity were not robust correlates to spring chlorophyll a. Surface nitrate in the winter was not a robust correlate to chlorophyll a or the physical variables in every case suggesting that nitrate limitation may not be the primary constraint on the interannual variability of the spring bloom throughout all regions. Generalized linear models suggest that we can resolve 88% of March chlorophyll a interannual variability in Georges Bank using lagged physical data.

Mars dust storms - Interannual variability and chaos

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ingersoll, Andrew P.; Lyons, James R.

1993-01-01

The hypothesis is that the global climate system, consisting of atmospheric dust interacting with the circulation, produces its own interannual variability when forced at the annual frequency. The model has two time-dependent variables representing the amount of atmospheric dust in the northern and southern hemispheres, respectively. Absorption of sunlight by the dust drives a cross-equatorial Hadley cell that brings more dust into the heated hemisphere. The circulation decays when the dust storm covers the globe. Interannual variability manifests itself either as a periodic solution in which the period is a multiple of the Martian year, or as an aperiodic (chaotic) solution that never repeats. Both kinds of solution are found in the model, lending support to the idea that interannual variability is an intrinsic property of the global climate system. The next step is to develop a hierarchy of dust-circulation models capable of being integrated for many years.

Multi-Wheat-Model Ensemble Responses to Interannual Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ruane, Alex C.; Hudson, Nicholas I.; Asseng, Senthold; Camarrano, Davide; Ewert, Frank; Martre, Pierre; Boote, Kenneth J.; Thorburn, Peter J.; Aggarwal, Pramod K.; Angulo, Carlos

2016-01-01

We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981e2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2 0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-termwarming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts.

Precipitation and carbon-water coupling jointly control the interannual variability of global land gross primary production

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julia; Dong, Jinwei; Kato, Etsushi; Jain, Atul K.; Wiltshire, Andy; Stocker, Benjamin D.

2016-12-01

Carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems is increasing along with the rising of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Embedded in this trend, recent studies suggested that the interannual variability (IAV) of global carbon fluxes may be dominated by semi-arid ecosystems, but the underlying mechanisms of this high variability in these specific regions are not well known. Here we derive an ensemble of gross primary production (GPP) estimates using the average of three data-driven models and eleven process-based models. These models are weighted by their spatial representativeness of the satellite-based solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence (SIF). We then use this weighted GPP ensemble to investigate the GPP variability for different aridity regimes. We show that semi-arid regions contribute to 57% of the detrended IAV of global GPP. Moreover, in regions with higher GPP variability, GPP fluctuations are mostly controlled by precipitation and strongly coupled with evapotranspiration (ET). This higher GPP IAV in semi-arid regions is co-limited by supply (precipitation)-induced ET variability and GPP-ET coupling strength. Our results demonstrate the importance of semi-arid regions to the global terrestrial carbon cycle and posit that there will be larger GPP and ET variations in the future with changes in precipitation patterns and dryland expansion.

Precipitation and Carbon-Water Coupling Jointly Control the Interannual Variability of Global Land Gross Primary Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zhang, Yao; Xiao, Xiangming; Guanter, Luis; Zhou, Sha; Ciais, Philippe; Joiner, Joanna; Sitch, Stephen; Wu, Xiaocui; Nabel, Julian; Dong, Jinwei;

The OMZ and nutrient features as a signature of interannual and low-frequency variability in the Peruvian upwelling system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graco, Michelle I.; Purca, Sara; Dewitte, Boris; Castro, Carmen G.; Morón, Octavio; Ledesma, Jesús; Flores, Georgina; Gutiérrez, Dimitri

2017-10-01

Over the last decades, the Humboldt Current upwelling ecosystem, particularly the northern component off the coast of Peru, has drawn the interest of the scientific community because of its unique characteristics: it is the upwelling system with the biggest catch productivity despite the fact it is embedded in a shallow and intense oxygen minimum zone (OMZ). It is also an area of intense nitrogen loss and anammox activity and experiences large interannual variability associated with the equatorial remote forcing. In this context, we examined the oceanographic and biogeochemical variability associated with the OMZ off central Peru from a monthly time series (1996-2011) recorded off the coast of Callao (12° 02' S, 77° 29' W). The data reveal a rich spectrum of variability in the OMZ that includes frequencies ranging from seasonal to interannual scales. Due to the efficient oceanic teleconnection off Peru, the observed variability is interpreted in the light of an estimate of the equatorial Kelvin wave contribution to sea level anomalies considering the peculiarities of its vertical structure (i.e., the first two baroclinic modes). The span of the data set allows us to contrast two OMZ regimes. The strong regime is associated with the strong 1997-1998 equatorial Pacific El Niño, during which the OMZ adjusted to Kelvin-wave-induced downwelling conditions that switched off the upwelling and drastically reduced nutrient availability. The weak regime corresponds to the post-2000 period associated with the occurrence of moderate central Pacific El Niño events and enhanced equatorial Kelvin wave activity, in which mean upwelling conditions are maintained. It is shown that the characteristics of the coupling between physics and biogeochemistry is distinct between the two regimes with the weak regime being associated with a larger explained variance in biogeochemical properties not linearly related to the ENSO oceanic teleconnection. The data also reveal a long-term trend from 1999 corresponding to a deepening of the oxygen-deficient waters and warming. The implications of our results for understanding the OMZ dynamics off Peru are discussed.

On which timescales do gas transfer velocities control North Atlantic CO2 flux variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couldrey, Matthew; Oliver, Kevin; Yool, Andrew; Halloran, Paul; Achterberg, Eric

2016-04-01

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability, but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here, we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of non-seasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer term flux variability.

On which timescales do gas transfer velocities control North Atlantic CO2 flux variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couldrey, Matthew P.; Oliver, Kevin I. C.; Yool, Andrew; Halloran, Paul R.; Achterberg, Eric P.

2016-05-01

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2 concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature- and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2 and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2, and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2 and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of nonseasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer-term flux variability.

On which timescales do gas transfer velocities control North Atlantic CO2 flux variability?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Couldrey, M.; Oliver, K. I. C.; Yool, A.; Halloran, P. R.; Achterberg, E. P.

2016-02-01

The North Atlantic is an important basin for the global ocean's uptake of anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide (CO2), but the mechanisms controlling this carbon flux are not fully understood. The air-sea flux of CO2, F, is the product of a gas transfer velocity, k, the air-sea CO2 concentration gradient, ΔpCO2, and the temperature and salinity-dependent solubility coefficient, α. k is difficult to constrain, representing the dominant uncertainty in F on short (instantaneous to interannual) timescales. Previous work shows that in the North Atlantic, ΔpCO2 and k both contribute significantly to interannual F variability, but that k is unimportant for multidecadal variability. On some timescale between interannual and multidecadal, gas transfer velocity variability and its associated uncertainty become negligible. Here, we quantify this critical timescale for the first time. Using an ocean model, we determine the importance of k, ΔpCO2 and α on a range of timescales. On interannual and shorter timescales, both ΔpCO2 and k are important controls on F. In contrast, pentadal to multidecadal North Atlantic flux variability is driven almost entirely by ΔpCO2; k contributes less than 25%. Finally, we explore how accurately one can estimate North Atlantic F without a knowledge of non-seasonal k variability, finding it possible for interannual and longer timescales. These findings suggest that continued efforts to better constrain gas transfer velocities are necessary to quantify interannual variability in the North Atlantic carbon sink. However, uncertainty in k variability is unlikely to limit the accuracy of estimates of longer term flux variability.

Overview of o3 and CO Interannual Variabilities and Trends Based on the Mozaic Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thouret, V.; Cammas, J.; Elguindi, N.; Zbinden, R.; Athier, G.; Nedelec, P.; Cousin, J.; Karcher, F.

2010-12-01

The MOZAIC program (http://mozaic.aero.obs-mip.fr) measures O3 and thermodynamical parameters since August 1994 along with CO since December 2001, on board 5 commercial aircraft operated by European airlines. Thus, most of the sampling data have been recorded at northern mid-latitudes, between 9 and 12 km altitude, in the upper troposphere - lower stratosphere (UTLS). To better assess the O3 distribution and its seasonal and regional behavior, measurements have been referenced to the tropopause altitude. The tropopause is defined as being a transition zone 30 hPa thick centered on the surface PV=2 pvu. Two other layers are defined on either side of the tropopause to encompass all the cruise levels of the MOZAIC flights, as fully described in Thouret et al., (2006). Then, we have access to the upper tropospheric and lower stratospheric O3 and CO distributions independently of any ozone threshold and regardless of the seasonal variations of the tropopause. We will present a climatology of O3 and CO in the UTLS for different regions of the northern hemisphere, from Western US to Japan, via North Atlantic and Europe. We will focus on the seasonal and regional differences to better highlight the O3 and CO behavior in this critical region. We also aim to further assess their interannual variability and “trends”. The first analysis presented in Thouret et al., (2006) showed an increase of O3 of about 1%/year between 1994 and 2003 in both the UT and the LS over a large North Atlantic area. This time period was actually characterized by the so-called (positive) anomaly 1998-1999. Later on, Koumoutsaris et al., (2008) have shown the role of the strong El-Nino event in 1997 in this positive ozone anomaly observed at hemispheric scale. In this present study, thanks to a longer time series now available (up to 2009), we go a step further. We will show that recent data actually reveal a levelling off of O3 since 2000 over the US and Europe while it is still increasing over Asia (less than 1%/year). On the other hand, CO distributions actually show a strong interannual variability partly linked to the intensity of boreal fires (Elguindi et al., 2010). We will present a detailed seasonal and regional analysis to better assess the leading processes. Elguindi et al., Current status of the ability of the GEMS/MACC models to reproduce the tropospheric CO vertical distribution as measured by MOZAIC… GMDD, 2010 Koumoutsaris S., Bey I., Generoso S., Thouret V., Influence of El Nino-Southern Oscillation on the interannual variability of tropospheric ozone in the northern midlatitudes, J. Geophys. Res., 113, D19301, 2008. Thouret V., J.-P. Cammas, B. Sauvage, G. Athier, R. Zbinden, P. Nédélec, P. Simon, and F. Karcher, Tropopause referenced ozone climatology and inter-annual variability (1994-2003) from the MOZAIC programme, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 2006.

Skill of ENSEMBLES seasonal re-forecasts for malaria prediction in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, A. E.; Morse, A. P.

2012-12-01

This study examines the performance of malaria-relevant climate variables from the ENSEMBLES seasonal ensemble re-forecasts for sub-Saharan West Africa, using a dynamic malaria model to transform temperature and rainfall forecasts into simulated malaria incidence and verifying these forecasts against simulations obtained by driving the malaria model with General Circulation Model-derived reanalysis. Two subregions of forecast skill are identified: the highlands of Cameroon, where low temperatures limit simulated malaria during the forecast period and interannual variability in simulated malaria is closely linked to variability in temperature, and northern Nigeria/southern Niger, where simulated malaria variability is strongly associated with rainfall variability during the peak rain months.

Large interannual variability in net ecosystem carbon dioxide exchange of a disturbed temperate peatland.

PubMed

Aslan-Sungur, Guler; Lee, Xuhui; Evrendilek, Fatih; Karakaya, Nusret

2016-06-01

Peatland ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle as significant C sinks. However, human-induced disturbances can turn these sinks into sources of atmospheric CO2. Long-term measurements are needed to understand seasonal and interannual variability of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) and effects of hydrological conditions and their disturbances on C fluxes. Continuous eddy-covariance measurements of NEE were conducted between August 2010 and April 2014 at Yenicaga temperate peatland (Turkey), which was drained for agricultural usage and for peat mining until 2009. Annual NEE during the three full years of measurement indicated that the peatland acted as a CO2 source with large interannual variability, at rates of 246, 244 and 663 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) for 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively, except for June 2011, and May to July 2012. The emission strengths were comparable to those found for severely disturbed tropical peatlands. The peak CO2 emissions occurred in the dry summer of 2013 when water table level (WTL) was below a threshold value of -60 cm and soil water content (SCW) below a threshold value of 70% by volume. Water availability index was found to have a stronger explanatory power for variations in monthly ecosystem respiration (ER) than the traditional water status indicators (SCW and WTL). Air temperature, evapotranspiration and vapor pressure deficient were the most significant variables strongly correlated with NEE and its component fluxes of gross primary production and ER. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The contributions of local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to East Asian precipitation and its variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Liang; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Stephan, Claudia C.

2018-01-01

We investigate the contribution of the local and remote atmospheric moisture fluxes to East Asia (EA) precipitation and its interannual variability during 1979-2012. We use and expand the Brubaker et al. (J Clim 6:1077-1089,1993) method, which connects the area-mean precipitation to area-mean evaporation and the horizontal moisture flux into the region. Due to its large landmass and hydrological heterogeneity, EA is divided into five sub-regions: Southeast (SE), Tibetan Plateau (TP), Central East (CE), Northwest (NW) and Northeast (NE). For each region, we first separate the contributions to precipitation of local evaporation from those of the horizontal moisture flux by calculating the precipitation recycling ratio: the fraction of precipitation over a region that originates as evaporation from the same region. Then, we separate the horizontal moisture flux across the region's boundaries by direction. We estimate the contributions of the horizontal moisture fluxes from each direction, as well as the local evaporation, to the mean precipitation and its interannual variability. We find that the major contributors to the mean precipitation are not necessarily those that contribute most to the precipitation interannual variability. Over SE, the moisture flux via the southern boundary dominates the mean precipitation and its interannual variability. Over TP, in winter and spring, the moisture flux via the western boundary dominates the mean precipitation; however, variations in local evaporation dominate the precipitation interannual variability. The western moisture flux is the dominant contributor to the mean precipitation over CE, NW and NE. However, the southern or northern moisture flux or the local evaporation dominates the precipitation interannual variability over these regions, depending on the season. Potential mechanisms associated with interannual variability in the moisture flux are identified for each region. The methods and results presented in this study can be readily applied to model simulations, to identify simulation biases in precipitation that relate to the simulated moisture supplies and transport.

Dissolved organic carbon and its potential predictors in eutrophic lakes.

PubMed

Toming, Kaire; Kutser, Tiit; Tuvikene, Lea; Viik, Malle; Nõges, Tiina

2016-10-01

Understanding of the true role of lakes in the global carbon cycle requires reliable estimates of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and there is a strong need to develop remote sensing methods for mapping lake carbon content at larger regional and global scales. Part of DOC is optically inactive. Therefore, lake DOC content cannot be mapped directly. The objectives of the current study were to estimate the relationships of DOC and other water and environmental variables in order to find the best proxy for remote sensing mapping of lake DOC. The Boosted Regression Trees approach was used to clarify in which relative proportions different water and environmental variables determine DOC. In a studied large and shallow eutrophic lake the concentrations of DOC and coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM) were rather high while the seasonal and interannual variability of DOC concentrations was small. The relationships between DOC and other water and environmental variables varied seasonally and interannually and it was challenging to find proxies for describing seasonal cycle of DOC. Chlorophyll a (Chl a), total suspended matter and Secchi depth were correlated with DOC and therefore are possible proxies for remote sensing of seasonal changes of DOC in ice free period, while for long term interannual changes transparency-related variables are relevant as DOC proxies. CDOM did not appear to be a good predictor of the seasonality of DOC concentration in Lake Võrtsjärv since the CDOM-DOC coupling varied seasonally. However, combining the data from Võrtsjärv with the published data from six other eutrophic lakes in the world showed that CDOM was the most powerful predictor of DOC and can be used in remote sensing of DOC concentrations in eutrophic lakes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Effect of the Interannual Variability of the OH Sink on the Interannual Variability of the Atmospheric Methane Mixing Ratio and Carbon Stable Isotope Composition

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guillermo Nuñez Ramirez, Tonatiuh; Houweling, Sander; Marshall, Julia; Williams, Jason; Brailsford, Gordon; Schneising, Oliver; Heimann, Martin

2013-04-01

The atmospheric hydroxyl radical concentration (OH) varies due to changes in the incoming UV radiation, in the abundance of atmospheric species involved in the production, recycling and destruction of OH molecules and due to climate variability. Variability in carbon monoxide emissions from biomass burning induced by El Niño Southern Oscillation are particularly important. Although the OH sink accounts for the oxidation of approximately 90% of atmospheric CH4, the effect of the variability in the distribution and strength of the OH sink on the interannual variability of atmospheric methane (CH4) mixing ratio and stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C-CH4) has often been ignored. To show this effect we simulated the atmospheric signals of CH4 in a three-dimensional atmospheric transport model (TM3). ERA Interim reanalysis data provided the atmospheric transport and temperature variability from 1990 to 2010. We performed simulations using time dependent OH concentration estimations from an atmospheric chemistry transport model and an atmospheric chemistry climate model. The models assumed a different set of reactions and algorithms which caused a very different strength and distribution of the OH concentration. Methane emissions were based on published bottom-up estimates including inventories, upscaled estimations and modeled fluxes. The simulations also included modeled concentrations of atomic chlorine (Cl) and excited oxygen atoms (O(1D)). The isotopic signal of the sources and the fractionation factors of the sinks were based on literature values, however the isotopic signal from wetlands and enteric fermentation processes followed a linear relationship with a map of C4 plant fraction. The same set of CH4emissions and stratospheric reactants was used in all simulations. Two simulations were done per OH field: one in which the CH4 sources were allowed to vary interannually, and a second where the sources were climatological. The simulated mixing ratios and isotopic compositions at global reference stations were used to construct more robust indicators such as global and zonal means and interhemispheric differences. We also compared the model CH4 mixing ratio to satellite observations, for the period 2003 to 2004 with SCIAMACHY and from 2009 to 2010 with GOSAT. The interannual variability of the different OH fields imprinted an interannual variation of the atmospheric CH4 mixing ratio with a magnitude of ±10 ppb, which is comparable to the effect of all sources combined. Meanwhile its effect on the interannual variability of δ13C-CH4 was minor (< 10%). The interannual variability of the mixing ratio interhemispheric difference is dominated by the sources because the OH sink is concentrated in the tropics, thus its interannual variability affects both hemispheres. Meanwhile, although the OH plays an important role in the establishment of an interhemispheric gradient of δ13C-CH4, the interannual variation of this gradient is negligibly affected by the choice of OH field. Overall the study showed that the variability of the OH sink plays a significant role in the interannual variability of the atmospheric methane mixing ratio, and must be considered to improve our understanding of the recent trends in the global methane budget.

Variability and change of sea level and its components in the Indo-Pacific region during the altimetry era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Quran; Zhang, Xuebin; Church, John A.; Hu, Jianyu

2017-03-01

Previous studies have shown that regional sea level exhibits interannual and decadal variations associated with the modes of climate variability. A better understanding of those low-frequency sea level variations benefits the detection and attribution of climate change signals. Nonetheless, the contributions of thermosteric, halosteric, and mass sea level components to sea level variability and trend patterns remain unclear. By focusing on signals associated with dominant climate modes in the Indo-Pacific region, we estimate the interannual and decadal fingerprints and trend of each sea level component utilizing a multivariate linear regression of two adjoint-based ocean reanalyses. Sea level interannual, decadal, and trend patterns primarily come from thermosteric sea level (TSSL). Halosteric sea level (HSSL) is of regional importance in the Pacific Ocean on decadal time scale and dominates sea level trends in the northeast subtropical Pacific. The compensation between TSSL and HSSL is identified in their decadal variability and trends. The interannual and decadal variability of temperature generally peak at subsurface around 100 m but that of salinity tend to be surface-intensified. Decadal temperature and salinity signals extend deeper into the ocean in some regions than their interannual equivalents. Mass sea level (MassSL) is critical for the interannual and decadal variability of sea level over shelf seas. Inconsistencies exist in MassSL trend patterns among various estimates. This study highlights regions where multiple processes work together to control sea level variability and change. Further work is required to better understand the interaction of different processes in those regions.

January and July global distributions of atmospheric heating for 1986, 1987, and 1988

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schaack, Todd K.; Johnson, Donald R.

1994-01-01

Three-dimensional global distributions of atmospheric heating are estimated for January and July of the 3-year period 1986-88 from the European Center for Medium Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA) assimilated datasets. Emphasis is placed on the interseasonal and interannual variability of heating both locally and regionally. Large fluctuations in the magnitude of heating and the disposition of maxima/minima in the Tropics occur over the 3-year period. This variability, which is largely in accord with anomalous precipitation expected during the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, appears realistic. In both January and July, interannual differences of 1.0-1.5 K/day in the vertically averaged heating occur over the tropical Pacific. These interannual regional differences are substantial in comparison with maximum monthly averaged heating rates of 2.0-2.5 K/day. In the extratropics, the most prominent interannual variability occurs along the wintertime North Atlantic cyclone track. Vertical profiles of heating from selected regions also reveal large interannual variability. Clearly evident is the modulation of the heating within tropical regions of deep moist convection associated with the evolution of the ENSO cycle. The heating integrated over continental and oceanic basins emphasizes the impact of land and ocean surfaces on atmospheric energy balance and depicts marked interseasonal and interannual large-scale variability.

Decadal variability on the Northwest European continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Sam; Cottier, Finlo; Inall, Mark; Griffiths, Colin

2018-02-01

Decadal scale time series of the shelf seas are important for understanding both climate and process studies. Despite numerous investigations of long-term temperature variability in the shelf seas, studies of salinity variability are few. Salt is a more conservative tracer than temperature in shallow seas, and it can reveal changes in local hydrographic conditions as well as transmitted basin-scale changes. Here, new inter-annual salinity time series on the northwest European shelf are developed and a 13 year high resolution salinity record from a coastal mooring in western Scotland is presented and analysed. We find strong temporal variability in coastal salinity on timescales ranging from tidal to inter-annual, with the magnitude of variability greatest during winter months. There is little seasonality and no significant decadal trend in the coastal time series of salinity. We propose 4 hydrographic states to explain salinity variance in the shelf area west of Scotland based on the interaction between a baroclinic coastal current and wind-forced barotropic flow: while wind forcing is important, we find that changes in the buoyancy-driven flow are more likely to influence long-term salinity observations. We calculate that during prevailing westerly wind conditions, surface waters in the Sea of the Hebrides receive a mix of 62% Atlantic origin water to 38% coastal sources. This contrasts with easterly wind conditions, during which the mix is 6% Atlantic to 94% coastal sources on average. This 'switching' between hydrographic states is expected to impact nutrient transport and therefore modify the level of primary productivity on the shelf. This strong local variability in salinity is roughly an order of magnitude greater than changes in the adjacent ocean basin, and we infer from this that Scottish coastal waters are likely to be resilient to decadal changes in ocean climate.

300 Years of East African Climate Variability from Oxygen Isotopes in a Kenya Coral

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunbar, R.

2003-04-01

Instrumental records of climate variability from the western Indian Ocean are relatively scarce and short. Here I present a monthly resolution stable isotopic record acquired from a large living coral head (Porites) from the Malindi Marine Reserve, Kenya (3^oS, 40^oE). The annual chronology is precise and is based on exceptionally clear high and low density growth band couplets. The record extends from 1696 to 1996 A.D., making it the longest coral climate record from the Indian Ocean and one of the longest available worldwide. We have analyzed the uppermost portion of the coral colony in triplicate, using 3 separate cores. This upper section, used for calibration purposes, also provides estimates of signal fidelity and noise in the climate recording system internal to the colony. Coral δ18O at this site primarily records SST; linear regression of monthly coral δ18O vs. SST yields a slope of -0.26 ppm δ18O per ^oC, and δ18O explains ˜57% of the SST variance. Additional isotopic variability may result from changes in seawater δ18O due to local runoff or regional evaporation/precipitation balance, but these changes are likely to be small because local rainfall δ18O is not strongly depleted relative to seawater and salinity gradients are small. The coral record indicates a clear warming trend of about 1.5^oC that accelerates in the latest 20th century, superimposed on strong decadal variability that persists throughout the record. In fact, δ18O values in the 1990's exceed the 300 year envelope (they are lower) and correspond with apparently unprecedented coral bleaching in coastal East Africa. The decadal component of the Malindi coral record reflects a regional climate signal spanning much of the western equatorial Indian Ocean. In general, East African SST and rainfall are better correlated with Pacific ENSO indicators than with the Indian Monsoon at all periods (inter-annual through multi-decadal) but the correlation weakens after 1975. One dramatic new result we report here is a strong indication of a major cool and dry period from 1750--1820 A.D. This is the single largest multi-decadal anomaly of the past 300 years and correlates perfectly in time with the historically and anecdotally defined Lapanarat Drought. Our results indicate a strong link between multi-decadal tropical cold SST anomalies And far-reaching continental droughts in East Africa. Causes and links to other climate recording systems will be explored. Interannual-decadal SST variations are strongly coherent with ENSO indices and other ENSO-sensitive coral records on decadal and interannual time scales. The decadal component of the Malindi coral record reflects a regional climate signal spanning much of the western equatorial Indian Ocean. Previous work has argued that this component likely reflects a monsoonal influence. However, decadal variance in both Malindi and Seychelles (Charles et al. 1997) coral records is more strongly coherent with ENSO indices than with the India or East Africa rain indices. The coherency of both coral records with Pacific indicators suggests instead that Indian Ocean variability reflects decadal ENSO-like variability originating in the Pacific. These records don't correlate significantly with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation implying a dominant role for the tropical Pacific (as opposed to extra-tropical regions) as a source of regional decadal variability in the western Indian Ocean. This work confirms that the tropical Pacific can act as an agent of decadal climate variability over a very large spatial scale.

Effects of lakes and reservoirs on annual river nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment export in agricultural and forested landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Powers, Stephen M.; Robertson, Dale M.; Stanley, Emily H.

2014-01-01

Recently, effects of lakes and reservoirs on river nutrient export have been incorporated into landscape biogeochemical models. Because annual export varies with precipitation, there is a need to examine the biogeochemical role of lakes and reservoirs over time frames that incorporate interannual variability in precipitation. We examined long-term (~20 years) time series of river export (annual mass yield, Y, and flow-weighted mean annual concentration, C) for total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP), and total suspended sediment (TSS) from 54 catchments in Wisconsin, USA. Catchments were classified as small agricultural, large agricultural, and forested by use of a cluster analysis, and these varied in lentic coverage (percentage of catchment lake or reservoir water that was connected to river network). Mean annual export and interannual variability (CV) of export (for both Y and C) were higher in agricultural catchments relative to forested catchments for TP, TN, and TSS. In both agricultural and forested settings, mean and maximum annual TN yields were lower in the presence of lakes and reservoirs, suggesting lentic denitrification or N burial. There was also evidence of long-term lentic TP and TSS retention, especially when viewed in terms of maximum annual yield, suggesting sedimentation during high loading years. Lentic catchments had lower interannual variability in export. For TP and TSS, interannual variability in mass yield was often >50% higher than interannual variability in water yield, whereas TN variability more closely followed water (discharge) variability. Our results indicate that long-term mass export through rivers depends on interacting terrestrial, aquatic, and meteorological factors in which the presence of lakes and reservoirs can reduce the magnitude of export, stabilize interannual variability in export, as well as introduce export time lags.

Interannual hydroclimatic variability and the 2009-2011 extreme ENSO phases in Colombia: from Andean glaciers to Caribbean lowlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bedoya-Soto, Juan Mauricio; Poveda, Germán; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Vélez-Upegui, Jorge Julián

2018-03-01

During 2009-2011, Colombia experienced extreme hydroclimatic events associated with the extreme phases of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here, we study the dynamics of diverse land-atmosphere phenomena involved in such anomalous events at continental, regional, and local scales. Standardized anomalies of precipitation, 2-m temperature, total column water (TCW), volumetric soil water (VSW), temperature at 925 hPa, surface sensible heat (SSH), latent heat (SLH), evaporation (EVP), and liquid water equivalent thickness (LWET) are analyzed to assess atmosphere-land controls and relationships over tropical South America (TropSA) during 1986-2013 (long term) and 2009-2011 (ENSO extreme phases). An assessment of the interannual covariability between precipitation and 2-m temperature is performed using singular value decomposition (SVD) to identify the dominant spatiotemporal modes of hydroclimatic variability over the region's largest river basins (Amazon, Orinoco, Tocantins, Magdalena-Cauca, and Essequibo). ENSO, its evolution in time, and strong and consistent spatial structures emerge as the dominant mode of variability. In situ anomalies during both extreme phases of ENSO 2009-2011 over the Magdalena-Cauca River basins are linked at the continental scale. The ENSO-driven hydroclimatic effects extend from the diurnal cycle to interannual timescales, as reflected in temperature data from tropical glaciers and the rain-snow boundary in the highest peaks of the Central Andes of Colombia to river levels along the Caribbean lowlands of the Magdalena-Cauca River basin.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Variability in Antarctic Sea-Ice Dynamics, and Its Impact on Surface Fluxes and Water Mass Production

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drinkwater, Mark R.

1999-01-01

Strong seasonal and interannual signals in Antarctic bottom-water outflow remain unexplained yet are highly correlated with anomalies in net sea-ice growth in coastal polynyas. The mechanisms responsible for driving salination and replenishment and rejuvenation of the dense shelf "source" waters likely also generate pulses of bottom water outflow. The objective of this research is to investigate time-scales of variability in the dynamics of sea-ice in the Southern Ocean in order to determine the primary sites for production of dense shelf waters. We are using a merged satellite/buoy sea-ice motion data set for the period 1978-present day to compute the dynamics of opening and closing of coastal polynyas over the continental shelf. The Ocean Circulation and Climate Advanced Model (OCCAM) ocean general circulation model with coupled sea-ice dynamics is presently forced using National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) data to simulate fluxes and the salination impact of the ocean shelf regions. This work is relevant in the context of measuring the influence of polar sea-ice dynamics upon polar ocean characteristics, and thereby upon global thermohaline ocean circulation. Interannual variability in simulated net freezing rate in the Southern Weddell Sea is shown for the period 1986-1993. There is a pronounced maximum of ice production in 1988 and minimum in 1991 in response to anomalies in equatorward meridional wind velocity. This follows a similar approximate 8-year interannual cycle in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and satellite-derived ice-edge anomalies reported elsewhere as the "Antarctic Circumpolar Wave." The amplitude of interannual fluctuations in annual net ice production are about 40% of the mean value, implying significant interannual variance in brine rejection and upper ocean heat loss. Southward anomalies in wind stress induce negative anomalies in open water production, which are observed in passive microwave satellite images. Thus, cycles of enhanced poleward wind stress reduce ice growth by compacting the ice along the coastline and closing open water in leads and polynyas. Model simulations confirm that years of low ice production, such as 1991, coincide with years of lower than normal bottom water outflow. Future plans include the assimilation of satellite ice concentrations and ice drift dynamics to more accurately constrain boundary conditions in the model.

Climatic Influences on Southern Makassar Strait Salinity Over the Past Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murty, S. A.; Goodkin, N. F.; Halide, H.; Natawidjaja, D.; Suwargadi, B.; Suprihanto, I.; Prayudi, D.; Switzer, A. D.; Gordon, A. L.

2017-12-01

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is a globally important ocean current that fuels heat and buoyancy fluxes throughout the Indo-Pacific and is known to covary in strength with the El Niño Southern Oscillation at interannual time scales. A climate system with a less well-quantified impact on the ITF is the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM), which drives less saline surface waters from the South China Sea (SCS) into the Makassar Strait, obstructing surface ITF flow. We present a subannually resolved record of sea surface salinity (SSS) from 1927 to 2011 based on coral δ18O from the Makassar Strait that reveals variability in the relative contributions of different source waters to the surface waters of the Makassar Strait during the boreal winter monsoon. We find that the EAWM (January-March) strongly influences interannual SSS variability during boreal winter over the twentieth century (r = 0.54, p << 0.0001), impacting surface water circulation in the SCS and Indonesian Seas.

Climate-change impact on the 20th-century relationship between the Southern Annular Mode and global mean temperature

PubMed Central

Wang, Guojian; Cai, Wenju

2013-01-01

The positive phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) increases global mean temperature, and contributes to a negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the dominant mode of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere. This interannual relationship of a high global mean temperature associated with a negative SAM, however, is opposite to the relationship between their trends under greenhouse warming. We show that over much of the 20th century this relationship undergoes multidecadal fluctuations depending on the intensity of ENSO. During the period 1925–1955, subdued ENSO activities weakened the relationship. However, a similar weakening has occurred since the late 1970s despite the strong ENSO. We demonstrate that this recent weakening is induced by climate change in the Southern Hemisphere. Our result highlights a rare situation in which climate change signals emerge against an opposing property of interannual variability, underscoring the robustness of the recent climate change. PMID:23784087

Seasonal and interannual variability of atmospheric heat sources and moisture sinks as determined from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis: Part II variability associated with ENSO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tomita, Tomohiko; Yanai, Michio

The link between the Asian monsoon and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been demonstrated by a number of studies. This study examines two ENSO withdrawal periods and discusses if the Asian monsoon played a role in the differences between them. The 1986 event occurred in the later half of 1986 and retreated in 1988. The 1951 and 1991 events were similar to each other and seemed to continue to the second year after onset and not to have the clear La Nina phase after the events. In the central and eastern Pacific, three variables progress in phase as themore » ENSO cycle: sea surface temperature (SST), heat source (Q1), and divergence. Correlation coefficients were calculated and examined with the mean SST on the equator and with the standard deviation of the interannual components of SST. In the central and eastern Pacific, the standard deviation is large and three correlation coefficients are large (over 0.6). Strong air-sea interaction associated with ENSO cycle is deduced. In the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific, the correlation coefficients with SST become small rapidly, while the correlation coefficient between Q1 and the divergence is still large. The interannual variability of SSt may not be crucial for those of Q1 and of the divergence in this region because of the potential to generate well organized convection through the high mean SST. This suggests that various factors, such as effects from mid-latitudes, may modify the interannual variability in the region. To examine the effects of the Asian winter monsoon, the anomalous wind field at 850 hPa was investigated. The conditions of the Asian winter monsoon were quite different between the withdrawal periods in the 1986 and 1991 ENSO events. The Asian winter monsoon seems to be a factor to modify the ENSO cycle, especially in the retreat periods. In addition, the SST from the tropical Indian Ocean to western Pacific may be important for the modulation of the ENSO/monsoon system. 9 refs., 10 figs.« less

Interannual control of plankton communities by deep winter mixing and prey/predator interactions in the NW Mediterranean: Results from a 30-year 3D modeling study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Auger, P. A.; Ulses, C.; Estournel, C.; Stemmann, L.; Somot, S.; Diaz, F.

2014-05-01

A realistic modeling approach is designed to address the role of winter mixing on the interannual variability of plankton dynamics in the north-western (NW) Mediterranean basin. For the first time, a high-resolution coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model (Eco3m-S) covering a 30-year period (1976-2005) is validated on available in situ and satellite data for the NW Mediterranean. In this region, cold, dry winds in winter often lead to deep convection and strong upwelling of nutrients into the euphotic layer. High nutrient contents at the end of winter then support the development of a strong spring bloom of phytoplankton. Model results indicate that annual primary production is not affected by winter mixing due to seasonal balance (minimum in winter and maximum in spring). However, the total annual water column-integrated phytoplankton biomass appears to be favored by winter mixing because zooplankton grazing activity is low in winter and early spring. This reduced grazing is explained here by the rarefaction of prey due to both light limitation and the effect of mixing-induced dilution on prey/predator interactions. A negative impact of winter mixing on winter zooplankton biomass is generally simulated except for mesozooplankton. This difference is assumed to stem from the lower parameterized mortality, top trophic position and detritivorous diet of mesozooplankton in the model. Moreover, model suggests that the variability of annual mesozooplankton biomass is principally modulated by the effects of winter mixing on winter biomass. Thus, interannual variability of winter nutrient contents in the euphotic layer, resulting from winter mixing, would control spring primary production and thus annual mesozooplankton biomass. Our results show a bottom-up control of mesozooplankton communities, as observed at a coastal location of the Ligurian Sea.

Impact of interannual variability (1979-1986) of transport and temperature on ozone as computed using a two-dimensional photochemical model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jackman, Charles H.; Douglass, Anne R.; Chandra, Sushil; Stolarski, Richard S.; Rosenfield, Joan E.; Kaye, Jack A.

1991-01-01

Values of the monthly mean heating rates and the residual circulation characteristics were calculated using NMC data for temperature and the solar backscattered UV ozone for the period between 1979 and 1986. The results were used in a two-dimensional photochemical model in order to examine the effects of temperature and residual circulation on the interannual variability of ozone. It was found that the calculated total ozone was more sensitive to variations in interannual residual circulation than in the interannual temperature. The magnitude of the modeled ozone variability was found to be similar to the observed variability, but the observed and modeled year-to-year deviations were, for the most part, uncorrelated, due to the fact that the model did not account for most of the QBO forcing and for some of the observed tropospheric changes.

1996-2007 Interannual Spatio-Temporal Variability in Snowmelt in Two Montane Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepsen, S. M.; Molotch, N. P.; Williams, M. W.; Rittger, K. E.; Sickman, J. O.

2010-12-01

Snowmelt is a primary water resource for urban/agricultural centers and ecosystems near mountain regions. Stream chemistry from montane catchments is controlled by the flowpaths of water from snowmelt and the timing and duration of snow coverage. A process level understanding of the variability in these processes requires an understanding of the effect of changing climate and anthropogenic loading on spatio-temporal snowmelt patterns. With this as our objective, we applied a snow reconstruction model (SRM) to two well-studied montane watersheds, Tokopah Basin (TOK), California and Green Lake 4 Valley (GLV), Colorado, to examine interannual variability in the timing and location of snowmelt in response to variable climate conditions during the period from 1996 to 2007. The reconstruction model back solves for snowmelt by combining surface energy fluxes, inferred from meteorological data, with sequences of melt season snow images derived from satellite data (i.e., snowmelt depletion curves). The SRM explained 84% of the observed interannual variability in maximum watershed SWE in TOK, with errors ranging from -23 to +27% for the different years. For GLV4, the SRM explained 61% of the interannual variability, with errors ranging from -37 to +34%. In GLV4, interannual variability in snowmelt timing is a factor of four greater than the variability in streamflow timing, unlike in TOK where the ratio is nearly 1:1. We attribute this difference primarily to differences in the magnitude of the turbulent fluxes and the hydrogeology of the two study areas.

Mechanisms for the extratropical QBO in circulation and ozone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kinnersley, J.S.; Tung, K.K.

1999-06-15

A two-and-a-half-dimensional interactive stratospheric model, whose equatorial zonal wind was relaxed toward the observed Singapore zonal wind, was able to reproduce much of the observed quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) variability in the column ozone, in its vertical distribution in the low and middle latitudes, and also in the high southern polar latitudes. To reveal the mechanisms responsible for producing the modeled QBO signal over the globe, several control runs were also performed. The authors find that the ozone variability in the lower stratosphere--and hence also in the column--is determined mainly by two dynamical mechanisms. In the low to midlatitudes it ismore » created by a direct QBO circulation. Unlike the classic picture of a nonseasonal two-cell QBO circulation symmetric about the equator, a more correct picture is a direct QBO circulation that is strongly seasonal, driven by the seasonality in diabatic heating, which is very weak in the summer hemisphere and strong in the winter hemisphere at low and midlatitudes. Transport by the climatological circulation and diffusion is found to be ineffective. At high latitudes, there is again a circulation anomaly, but here it is induced by the modulation of the planetary wave potential vorticity flux by the QBO. This so-called Holton-Tan mechanism is responsible for most of the QBO ozone signal poleward of 60[degree]. During spring in the modeled northern polar region, chaotic behavior is another important source of interannual variability, in addition to the interannual variability of planetary wave sources in the troposphere previously studied by the authors.« less

Spatial and temporal variability of interhemispheric transport times

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Xiaokang; Yang, Huang; Waugh, Darryn W.; Orbe, Clara; Tilmes, Simone; Lamarque, Jean-Francois

2018-05-01

The seasonal and interannual variability of transport times from the northern midlatitude surface into the Southern Hemisphere is examined using simulations of three idealized age tracers: an ideal age tracer that yields the mean transit time from northern midlatitudes and two tracers with uniform 50- and 5-day decay. For all tracers the largest seasonal and interannual variability occurs near the surface within the tropics and is generally closely coupled to movement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). There are, however, notable differences in variability between the different tracers. The largest seasonal and interannual variability in the mean age is generally confined to latitudes spanning the ITCZ, with very weak variability in the southern extratropics. In contrast, for tracers subject to spatially uniform exponential loss the peak variability tends to be south of the ITCZ, and there is a smaller contrast between tropical and extratropical variability. These differences in variability occur because the distribution of transit times from northern midlatitudes is very broad and tracers with more rapid loss are more sensitive to changes in fast transit times than the mean age tracer. These simulations suggest that the seasonal-interannual variability in the southern extratropics of trace gases with predominantly NH midlatitude sources may differ depending on the gases' chemical lifetimes.

Evaluation of the ORCHIDEE ecosystem model over Africa against 25 years of satellite-based water and carbon measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Traore, Abdoul Khadre; Ciais, Philippe; Vuichard, Nicolas; Poulter, Benjamin; Viovy, Nicolas; Guimberteau, Matthieu; Jung, Martin; Myneni, Ranga; Fisher, Joshua B.

2014-08-01

Few studies have evaluated land surface models for African ecosystems. Here we evaluate the Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems (ORCHIDEE) process-based model for the interannual variability (IAV) of the fraction of absorbed active radiation, the gross primary productivity (GPP), soil moisture, and evapotranspiration (ET). Two ORCHIDEE versions are tested, which differ by their soil hydrology parameterization, one with a two-layer simple bucket and the other a more complex 11-layer soil-water diffusion. In addition, we evaluate the sensitivity of climate forcing data, atmospheric CO2, and soil depth. Beside a very generic vegetation parameterization, ORCHIDEE simulates rather well the IAV of GPP and ET (0.5 < r < 0.9 interannual correlation) over Africa except in forestlands. The ORCHIDEE 11-layer version outperforms the two-layer version for simulating IAV of soil moisture, whereas both versions have similar performance of GPP and ET. Effects of CO2 trends, and of variable soil depth on the IAV of GPP, ET, and soil moisture are small, although these drivers influence the trends of these variables. The meteorological forcing data appear to be quite important for faithfully reproducing the IAV of simulated variables, suggesting that in regions with sparse weather station data, the model uncertainty is strongly related to uncertain meteorological forcing. Simulated variables are positively and strongly correlated with precipitation but negatively and weakly correlated with temperature and solar radiation. Model-derived and observation-based sensitivities are in agreement for the driving role of precipitation. However, the modeled GPP is too sensitive to precipitation, suggesting that processes such as increased water use efficiency during drought need to be incorporated in ORCHIDEE.

Thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere Coupling and the Predictability of Nordeste rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, P.; Saravanan, R.; Giannini, A.

2003-04-01

The interannual variability of rainfall in the northeastern region of Brazil, or Nordeste, is known to be very strongly correlated with sea surface temperature (SST) variability, of Atlantic and Pacific origin. For this reason the potential predictability of Nordeste rainfall is high. The current generation of state-of-the-art atmospheric models can replicate the observed rainfall variability with high skill when forced with the observed record of SST variability. The correlation between observed and modeled indices of Nordeste rainfall, in the AMIP-style integrations with two such models (NSIPP and CCM3) analyzed here, is of the order of 0.8, i.e. the models explain about 2/3 of the observed variability. Assuming that thermodynamic, ocean-atmosphere heat exchange plays the dominant role in tropical Atlantic SST variability on the seasonal to interannual time scale, we analyze its role in Nordeste rainfall predictability using an atmospheric general circulation model coupled to a slab ocean model. Predictability experiments initialized with observed December SST show that thermodynamic coupling plays a significant role in enhancing the persistence of SST anomalies, both in the tropical Pacific and in the tropical Atlantic. We show that thermodynamic coupling is sufficient to provide fairly accurate forecasts of tropical Atlantic SST in the boreal spring that are significantly better than the persistence forecasts. The consequences for the prediction of Nordeste rainfall are analyzed.

MECHANISMS OF CONVECTION-INDUCED MODULATION OF PASSIVE TRACER INTERHEMISPHERIC TRANSPORT INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY

EPA Science Inventory

Interannual variations of tropical convection impact atmospheric circulation and influence year-to-year variations of the transport of trace constituents in the troposphere. This study examines how two modes of convective variability-anomalous intensification and meridional disp...

Underestimated interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Yongjian; Song, Lianchun; Xiao, Ying; Du, Liangmin

2018-02-01

This study evaluates the performance of climate models in simulating the climatological mean and interannual variability of East Asian summer rainfall (EASR) using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Compared to the observation, the interannual variability of EASR during 1979-2005 is underestimated by the CMIP5 with a range of 0.86 16.08%. Based on bias correction of CMIP5 simulations with historical data, the reliability of future projections will be enhanced. The corrected EASR under representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 increases by 5.6 and 7.5% during 2081-2100 relative to the baseline of 1986-2005, respectively. After correction, the areas with both negative and positive anomalies decrease, which are mainly located in the South China Sea and central China, and southern China and west of the Philippines, separately. In comparison to the baseline, the interannual variability of EASR increases by 20.8% under RCP4.5 but 26.2% under RCP8.5 in 2006-2100, which is underestimated by 10.7 and 11.1% under both RCPs in the original CMIP5 simulation. Compared with the mean precipitation, the interannual variability of EASR is notably larger under global warming. Thus, the probabilities of floods and droughts may increase in the future.

Source Attribution and Interannual Variability of Arctic Pollution in Spring Constrained by Aircraft (ARCTAS, ARCPAC) and Satellite (AIRS) Observations of Carbon Monoxide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fisher, J. A.; Jacob, D. J.; Purdy, M. T.; Kopacz, M.; LeSager, P.; Carouge, C.; Holmes, C. D.; Yantosca, R. M.; Batchelor, R. L.; Strong, K.;

Time series pCO2 at a coastal mooring: Internal consistency, seasonal cycles, and interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reimer, Janet J.; Cai, Wei-Jun; Xue, Liang; Vargas, Rodrigo; Noakes, Scott; Hu, Xinping; Signorini, Sergio R.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Feely, Richard A.; Sutton, Adrienne J.; Sabine, Christopher; Musielewicz, Sylvia; Chen, Baoshan; Wanninkhof, Rik

2017-08-01

Marine carbonate system monitoring programs often consist of multiple observational methods that include underway cruise data, moored autonomous time series, and discrete water bottle samples. Monitored parameters include all, or some of the following: partial pressure of CO2 of the water (pCO2w) and air, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), total alkalinity (TA), and pH. Any combination of at least two of the aforementioned parameters can be used to calculate the others. In this study at the Gray's Reef (GR) mooring in the South Atlantic Bight (SAB) we: examine the internal consistency of pCO2w from underway cruise, moored autonomous time series, and calculated from bottle samples (DIC-TA pairing); describe the seasonal to interannual pCO2w time series variability and air-sea flux (FCO2), as well as describe the potential sources of pCO2w variability; and determine the source/sink for atmospheric pCO2. Over the 8.5 years of GR mooring time series, mooring-underway and mooring-bottle calculated-pCO2w strongly correlate with r-values > 0.90. pCO2w and FCO2 time series follow seasonal thermal patterns; however, seasonal non-thermal processes, such as terrestrial export, net biological production, and air-sea exchange also influence variability. The linear slope of time series pCO2w increases by 5.2 ± 1.4 μatm y-1 with FCO2 increasing 51-70 mmol m-2 y-1. The net FCO2 sign can switch interannually with the magnitude varying greatly. Non-thermal pCO2w is also increasing over the time series, likely indicating that terrestrial export and net biological processes drive the long term pCO2w increase.

Asynchrony in the inter-annual recruitment of lake whitefish Coregonus clupeaformis in the Great Lakes region

USGS Publications Warehouse

Zischke, Mitchell T.; Bunnell, David B.; Troy, Cary D.; Berglund, Eric K.; Caroffino, David C.; Ebener, Mark P.; He, Ji X.; Sitar, Shawn P.; Hook, Tomas O.

2017-01-01

Spatially separated fish populations may display synchrony in annual recruitment if the factors that drive recruitment success, particularly abiotic factors such as temperature, are synchronised across broad spatial scales. We examined inter-annual variation in recruitment among lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) populations in lakes Huron, Michigan and Superior using fishery-dependent and -independent data from 1971 to 2014. Relative year-class strength (RYCS) was calculated from catch-curve residuals for each year class across multiple sampling years. Pairwise comparison of RYCS among datasets revealed no significant associations either within or between lakes, suggesting that recruitment of lake whitefish is spatially asynchronous. There was no consistent correlation between pairwise agreement and the distance between datasets, and models to estimate the spatial scale of recruitment synchrony did not fit well to these data. This suggests that inter-annual recruitment variation of lake whitefish is asynchronous across broad spatial scales in the Great Lakes. While our method primarily evaluated year-to-year recruitment variation, it is plausible that recruitment of lake whitefish varies at coarser temporal scales (e.g. decadal). Nonetheless, our findings differ from research on some other Coregonus species and suggest that local biotic or density-dependent factors may contribute strongly to lake whitefish recruitment rather than inter-annual variability in broad-scale abiotic factors.

Interannual variation of the South China Sea circulation during winter: intensified in the southern basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zu, Tingting; Xue, Huijie; Wang, Dongxiao; Geng, Bingxu; Zeng, Lili; Liu, Qinyan; Chen, Ju; He, Yunkai

2018-05-01

Surface geostrophic current derived from altimetry remote sensing data, and current profiles observed from in-situ Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCP) mooring in the northern South China Sea (NSCS) and southern South China Sea (SSCS) are utilized to study the kinetic and energetic interannual variability of the circulation in the South China Sea (SCS) during winter. Results reveal a more significant interannual variation of the circulation and water mass properties in the SSCS than that in the NSCS. Composite ananlysis shows a significantly reduced western boundary current (WBC) and a closed cyclonic eddy in the SSCS at the mature phase of El Niño event, but a strong WBC and an unclosed cyclonic circulation in winter at normal or La Niña years. The SST is warmer while the subsurface water is colder and fresher in the mature phase of El Niño event than that in the normal or La Niña years in the SSCS. Numerical experiments and energy analysis suggest that both local and remote wind stress change are important for the interannual variation in the SSCS, remote wind forcing and Kuroshio intrusion affect the circulation and water mass properties in the SSCS through WBC advection.

Carbon dioxide and methane dynamics in estuaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borges, Alberto V.; Abril, Gwenaël.

2010-05-01

We carried out a literature overview to synthesize current knowledge on CO2 and CH4 dynamics and fluxes with the atmosphere in estuarine environments. Estuarine systems are highly dynamic in terms of carbon cycling and emit CO2 to the atmosphere at rates that are quantitatively significant for the global C cycle. This emission of CO2 to the atmosphere is strongly supported by the net heterotrophic nature of these ecosystems. The robustness of the evaluation of the emission of CO2 from estuarine ecosystems has increased in last years due to increasing data availability and improvements in the surface area estimates by types. At present, the lack of sufficient data is the major limitation in the quantification of the spatial and temporal variability of CO2 fluxes in estuarine environments. Regarding future observations, there is also a need for sustained measurements to unravel inter-annual variability and long-term trends of CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments. Indeed, due to the strong linkage with river catchements, inter-annual variability of CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments is expected to be strong. Data used in the present synthesis were either obtained by the authors, data mined from publications or communicated by colleagues. There is a need for publicly available and quality checked data-bases for CO2 and CH4 in estuarine environments. Not only cross-system meta-analysis of data (CO2, CH4, O2, …) can be enlightening as explored in the present work, but also considering the uncertainties in the evaluation of the gas transfer velocity, there could be a need for future re-evaluations of air-water CO2 and CH4 fluxes, requiring access to the raw pCO2 and [CH4] data.

Microwave radiometer observations of interannual water vapor variability and vertical structure over a tropical station

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renju, R.; Suresh Raju, C.; Mathew, Nizy; Antony, Tinu; Krishna Moorthy, K.

2015-05-01

The intraseasonal and interannual characteristics and the vertical distribution of atmospheric water vapor from the tropical coastal station Thiruvananthapuram (TVM) located in the southwestern region of the Indian Peninsula are examined from continuous multiyear, multifrequency microwave radiometer profiler (MRP) measurements. The accuracy of MRP for precipitable water vapor (PWV) estimation, particularly during a prolonged monsoon period, has been demonstrated by comparing with the PWV derived from collocated GPS measurements based on regression model between PWV and GPS wet delay component which has been developed for TVM station. Large diurnal and intraseasonal variations of PWV are observed during winter and premonsoon seasons. There is large interannual PWV variability during premonsoon, owing to frequent local convection and summer thunderstorms. During monsoon period, low interannual PWV variability is attributed to the persistent wind from the ocean which brings moisture to this coastal station. However, significant interannual humidity variability is seen at 2 to 6 km altitude, which is linked to the monsoon strength over the station. Prior to monsoon onset over the station, the specific humidity increases up to 5-10 g/kg in the altitude region above 5 km and remains consistently so throughout the active spells.

Future Interannual Variability of Arctic Sea Ice Area and its Implications for Marine Navigation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vavrus, S. J.; Mioduszewski, J.; Holland, M. M.; Wang, M.; Landrum, L.

2016-12-01

As both a symbol and driver of ongoing climate change, the diminishing Arctic sea ice pack has been widely studied in a variety of contexts. Most research, however, has focused on time-mean changes in sea ice, rather than on short-term variations that also have important physical and societal consequences. In this study we test the hypothesis that interannual Arctic sea ice variability will increase in the future by utilizing a set of 40 independent simulations from the Community Earth System Model's Large Ensemble for the 1920-2100 period. The model projects that ice variability will indeed grow substantially in all months but with a strong seasonal dependence in magnitude and timing. The variability increases most during late autumn (November-December) and least during spring. This increase proceeds in a time-transgressive manner over the course of the year, peaking soonest (2020s) in late-summer months and latest (2090s) during late spring. The variability in every month is inversely correlated with the average melt rate, resulting in an eventual decline in both terms as the ice pack becomes seasonal by late century. These projected changes in sea ice variations will likely have significant consequences for marine navigation, which we assess with the empirical Ice Numeral (IN) metric. A function of ice concentration and thickness, the IN quantifies the difficulty in traversing a transect of sea ice-covered ocean as a function of vessel strength. Our results show that although increasingly open Arctic seas will mean generally more favorable conditions for navigation, the concurrent rise in the variability of ice cover poses a competing risk. In particular, future intervals featuring the most rapid declines in ice area that coincide with the highest interannual ice variations will offer more inviting shipping opportunities tempered by less predictable navigational conditions.

Links between ocean properties, ice cover, and plankton dynamics on interannual time scales in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hamilton, James M.; Collins, Kate; Prinsenberg, Simon J.

2013-10-01

A decade of instrumented mooring data from Barrow Strait in the eastern Canadian Arctic Archipelago reveals connections between sea ice, water characteristics, and zooplankton dynamics on interannual time scales. On the North side of the Strait, the timing of breakup is positively related to the timing of freezeup in the previous year and negatively related to spring water temperature. This suggests that an early freezeup insulates the ocean from a cold autumn atmosphere, allowing heat to be retained until spring when it contributes to early sea ice erosion. There is also a very strong negative association between the timing of freezeup and late summer salinity, suggesting that monitoring of salinity in real time could be used to predict freezeup. A zooplankton biomass index derived from acoustic Doppler current profiler echo intensity data is used to demonstrate that on the North side there are also strong connections between early summer water temperature and the start, length, and productivity of the zooplankton growth season. On the South side of the Strait where currents are stronger, the relationships seen on the North side were not observed. But here integrated zooplankton biomass index and measured currents are used to identify interannual variability in the zooplankton biomass being delivered downstream into Lancaster Sound. Also on the South side, two yearlong records of daily fluorescence profiles reveal a large difference in the phytoplankton biomass being delivered downstream between years and demonstrate a strong relationship between the timing of the spring phytoplankton bloom and that of breakup.

The Potential for Predicting Precipitation on Seasonal-to-Interannual Timescales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, R. D.

1999-01-01

The ability to predict precipitation several months in advance would have a significant impact on water resource management. This talk provides an overview of a project aimed at developing this prediction capability. NASA's Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) will generate seasonal-to-interannual sea surface temperature predictions through detailed ocean circulation modeling and will then translate these SST forecasts into forecasts of continental precipitation through the application of an atmospheric general circulation model and a "SVAT"-type land surface model. As part of the process, ocean variables (e.g., height) and land variables (e.g., soil moisture) will be updated regularly via data assimilation. The overview will include a discussion of the variability inherent in such a modeling system and will provide some quantitative estimates of the absolute upper limits of seasonal-to-interannual precipitation predictability.

How important is interannual variability in the climatic interpretation of moraine sequences?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leonard, E. M.; Laabs, B. J. C.; Plummer, M. A.

2017-12-01

Mountain glaciers respond to both long-term climate and interannual forcing. Anderson et al. (2014) pointed out that kilometer-scale fluctuations in glacier length may result from interannual variability in temperature and precipitation given a "steady" climate with no long-term trends in mean or variability of temperature and precipitation. They cautioned that use of outermost moraines from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) as indicators of LGM climate will, because of the role of interannual forcing, result in overestimation of the magnitude of long-term temperature depression and/or precipitation enhancement. Here we assess the implications of these ideas, by examining the effect of interannual variability on glacier length and inferred magnitude of LGM climate change from present under both an assumed steady LGM climate and an LGM climate with low-magnitude, long-period variation in summer temperature and annual precipitation. We employ both the original 1-stage linear glacier model (Roe and O'Neal, 2009) used by Anderson et al. (2014) and a newer 3-stage linear model (Roe and Baker, 2014). We apply the models to two reconstructed LGM glaciers in the Colorado Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Three-stage-model results indicate that, absent long-term variations through a 7500-year-long LGM, interannual variability would result in overestimation of mean LGM temperature depression from the outermost moraine of 0.2-0.6°C. If small long-term cyclic variations of temperature (±0.5°C) and precipitation (±5%) are introduced, the overestimation of LGM temperature depression reduces to less than 0.4°C, and if slightly greater long-term variation (±1.0°C and ±10% precipitation) is introduced, the magnitude of overestimation is 0.3°C or less. Interannual variability may produce a moraine sequence that differs from the sequence that would be expected were glacier length forced only by long-term climate. With small amplitude (±0.5°C and ±5% precipitation) long-term variation, the moraine sequence expected if forced by a combination of interannual variability and long-term climate differs from that expected based on long-term climate forcing alone in 38% of model runs. With the larger amplitude long-term forcing (±1.0°C and ±10% precipitation) this difference occurs in 20% of model runs.

El Niño-Southern oscillation variability from the late cretaceous marca shale of California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Davies, Andrew; Kemp, Alan E.S.; Weedon, Graham P.; Barron, John A.

2012-01-01

Changes in the possible behavior of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) with global warming have provoked interest in records of ENSO from past “greenhouse” climate states. The latest Cretaceous laminated Marca Shale of California permits a seasonal-scale reconstruction of water column flux events and hence interannual paleoclimate variability. The annual flux cycle resembles that of the modern Gulf of California with diatoms characteristic of spring upwelling blooms followed by silt and clay, and is consistent with the existence of a paleo–North American Monsoon that brought input of terrigenous sediment during summer storms and precipitation runoff. Variation is also indicated in the extent of water column oxygenation by differences in lamina preservation. Time series analysis of interannual variability in terrigenous sediment and diatom flux and in the degree of bioturbation indicates strong periodicities in the quasi-biennial (2.1–2.8 yr) and low-frequency (4.1–6.3 yr) bands both characteristic of ENSO forcing, as well as decadal frequencies. This evidence for robust Late Cretaceous ENSO variability does not support the theory of a “permanent El Niño,” in the sense of a continual El Niño–like state, in periods of warmer climate.

On the ability of a global atmospheric inversion to constrain variations of CO2 fluxes over Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, L.; Broquet, G.; Imbach, P.; Chevallier, F.; Poulter, B.; Bonal, D.; Burban, B.; Ramonet, M.; Gatti, L. V.; Wofsy, S. C.; Munger, J. W.; Dlugokencky, E.; Ciais, P.

2015-01-01

The exchanges of carbon, water, and energy between the atmosphere and the Amazon Basin have global implications for current and future climate. Here, the global atmospheric inversion system of the Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate service (MACC) was used to further study the seasonal and interannual variations of biogenic CO2 fluxes in Amazonia. The system assimilated surface measurements of atmospheric CO2 mole fractions made over more than 100 sites over the globe into an atmospheric transport model. This study added four surface stations located in tropical South America, a region poorly covered by CO2 observations. The estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) optimized by the inversion were compared to independent estimates of NEE upscaled from eddy-covariance flux measurements in Amazonia, and against reports on the seasonal and interannual variations of the land sink in South America from the scientific literature. We focused on the impact of the interannual variation of the strong droughts in 2005 and 2010 (due to severe and longer-than-usual dry seasons), and of the extreme rainfall conditions registered in 2009. The spatial variations of the seasonal and interannual variability of optimized NEE were also investigated. While the inversion supported the assumption of strong spatial heterogeneity of these variations, the results revealed critical limitations that prevent global inversion frameworks from capturing the data-driven seasonal patterns of fluxes across Amazonia. In particular, it highlighted issues due to the configuration of the observation network in South America and the lack of continuity of the measurements. However, some robust patterns from the inversion seemed consistent with the abnormal moisture conditions in 2009.

Interannual variability of cut-off low systems over the European sector: The role of blocking and the Northern Hemisphere circulation modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nieto, R.; Gimeno, L.; de La Torre, L.; Ribera, P.; Barriopedro, D.; García-Herrera, R.; Serrano, A.; Gordillo, A.; Redaño, A.; Lorente, J.

2007-04-01

An earlier developed multidecadal database of Northern Hemisphere cut-off low systems (COLs), covering a 41 years period (from 1958 to 1998) is used to study COLs interannual variability in the European sector (25°-47.5° N, 50° W-40° E) and the major factors controlling it. The study focus on the influence on COLs interannual variability, of larger scale phenomena such as blocking events and other main circulation modes defined over the Euro-Atlantic region. It is shown that there is a very large interannual variability in the COLs occurrence at the annual and seasonal scales, although without significant trends. The influence of larger scale phenomena is seasonal dependent, with the positive phase of the NAO favoring autumn COL development, while winter COL occurrence is mostly related to blocking events. During summer, the season when more COLs occur, no significant influences were found.

Interannual variability of Danube waters propagation in summer period of 1992-2015 and its influence on the Black Sea ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kubryakov, A. A.; Stanichny, S. V.; Zatsepin, A. G.

2018-03-01

The propagation of the Danube River plume has strong interannual variability that impacts the local balance of nutrients and the thermohaline structure in the western Black Sea. In the present study, we use a particle-tracking model based on satellite altimetry measurements and wind reanalysis data, as well as satellite measurements (SeaWiFS, MODIS), to investigate the interannual variability in the Danube plume pathways during the summer from 1993 to 2015. The wind conditions largely define the variability in the Danube water propagation. Relatively low-frequency variability (on periods of a week to months) in the wind stress curl modulates the intensity of the geostrophic Rim Current and related mesoscale eddy dynamics. High-frequency offshore wind-drift currents transport the plume across isobaths and provide an important transport link between shelf and offshore circulation. Inherent plume dynamics play an additional role in the near-mouth transport of the plume and its connection with offshore circulation. During the years with prevailing northeast winds ( 30% of studied cases), which are usually accompanied by increased wind curl over the Black Sea and higher Danube discharge, an alongshore southward current at the NorthWestern Shelf (NWS) is formed near the western Black Sea coast. Advected southward, the Danube waters are entrained in the Rim Current jet, which transports them along the west coast of the basin. The strong Rim Current, fewer eddies and downwelling winds substantially decrease the cross-shelf exchange of nutrients. During the years with prevailing southeastern winds ( 40%), the Rim Current is less intense. Mesoscale eddies effectively trap the Danube waters, transporting them to the deep western part of the basin. The low- and high-frequency southeastern wind-drift currents contribute significantly to cross-isobath plume transport and its connection with offshore circulation. During several years ( 15%), the Danube waters moved eastward to the west coast of Crimea. They were transported on the north periphery of the mesoscale anticyclones due to prevailing eastward wind-drift currents. During the years with hot summers, a monsoon effect induced the formation of a strong anticyclonic wind cell over the NorthWestern Shelf (NWS), and the plume moved northward ( 15%). Anticyclonic wind circulation leads to the Ekman convergence of brackish surface waters in the centre of the shelf and the formation of a baroclinic geostrophic anticyclone north of the NWS. This anticyclone traps the Danube waters and forces them to remain on the shelf for a long period of time. The impact of the propagation of the plume on the variability in chlorophyll a chlorophyll a in the NWS and the western Black Sea is analysed in this study based on satellite data.

Masting in ponderosa pine: comparisons of pollen and seed over space and time.

PubMed

Mooney, Kailen A; Linhart, Yan B; Snyder, Marc A

2011-03-01

Many plant species exhibit variable and synchronized reproduction, or masting, but less is known of the spatial scale of synchrony, effects of climate, or differences between patterns of pollen and seed production. We monitored pollen and seed cone production for seven Pinus ponderosa populations (607 trees) separated by up to 28 km and 1,350 m in elevation in Boulder County, Colorado, USA for periods of 4-31 years for a mean per site of 8.7 years for pollen and 12.1 for seed cone production. We also analyzed climate data and a published dataset on 21 years of seed production for an eighth population (Manitou) 100 km away. Individual trees showed high inter-annual variation in reproduction. Synchrony was high within populations, but quickly became asynchronous among populations with a combination of increasing distance and elevational difference. Inter-annual variation in temperature and precipitation had differing influences on seed production for Boulder County and Manitou. We speculate that geographically variable effects of climate on reproduction arise from environmental heterogeneity and population genetic differentiation, which in turn result in localized synchrony. Although individual pines produce pollen and seed, only one-third of the covariation within trees was shared. As compared to seed cones, pollen had lower inter-annual variation at the level of the individual tree and was more synchronous. However, pollen and seed production were similar with respect to inter-annual variation at the population level, spatial scales of synchrony and associations with climate. Our results show that strong masting can occur at a localized scale, and that reproductive patterns can differ between pollen and seed cone production in a hermaphroditic plant.

Large-Scale Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns Associated with the Interannual Variability of Heatwaves in East Asia and Its Decadal Changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Choi, N.; Lee, M. I.; Lim, Y. K.; Kim, K. M.

2017-12-01

Heatwave is an extreme hot weather event which accompanies fatal damage to human health. The heatwave has a strong relationship with the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In this study, we examine the spatial pattern of heatwave in East Asia by using the EOF analysis and the relationship between heatwave frequency and large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. We also separate the time scale of heatwave frequency as the time scale longer than a decade and the interannual time scale. The long-term variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a linkage with the sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic with a decadal time scale (a.k.a. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; AMO). On the other hands, the interannual variation of heatwave frequency is linked with the two dominant spatial patterns associated with the large-scale teleconnection patterns mimicking the Scandinavian teleconnection (SCAND-like) pattern and the circumglobal teleconnection (CGT-like) pattern, respectively. It is highlighted that the interannual variation of heatwave frequency in East Asia shows a remarkable change after mid-1990s. While the heatwave frequency was mainly associated with the CGT-like pattern before mid-1990s, the SCAND-like pattern becomes the most dominant one after mid-1990s, making the CGT-like pattern as the second. This study implies that the large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns play a key role in developing heatwave events in East Asia. This study further discusses possible mechanisms for the decadal change in the linkage between heatwave frequency and the large-scale teleconnection patterns in East Asia such as early melting of snow cover and/or weakening of East Asian jet stream due to global warming.

Interannual to Decadal Variability of Ocean Evaporation as Viewed from Climate Reanalyses

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Bosilovich, Michael G.; Roberts, Jason B.; Wang, Hailan

2015-01-01

Questions we'll address: Given the uncoupled framework of "AMIP" (Atmosphere Model Inter-comparison Project) experiments, what can they tell us regarding evaporation variability? Do Reduced Observations Reanalyses (RedObs) using Surface Fluxes and Clouds (SFC) pressure (and wind) provide a more realistic picture of evaporation variability? What signals of interannual variability (e.g. El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)) and decadal variability (Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO)) are detectable with this hierarchy of evaporation estimates?

ENSO in a warming world: interannual climate variability in the early Miocene Southern Hemisphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fox, Bethany; Wilson, Gary; Lee, Daphne

2016-04-01

The El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant source of interannual variability in the modern-day climate system. ENSO is a quasi-periodic cycle with a recurrence interval of 2-8 years. A major question in modern climatology is how ENSO will respond to increased climatic warmth. ENSO-like (2-8 year) cycles have been detected in many palaeoclimate records for the Holocene. However, the temporal resolution of pre-Quaternary palaeoclimate archives is generally too coarse to investigate ENSO-scale variability. We present a 100-kyr record of ENSO-like variability during the second half of the Oligocene/Miocene Mi-1 event, a period of increasing global temperatures and Antarctic deglaciation (~23.032-2.93 Ma). This record is drawn from an annually laminated lacustrine diatomite from southern New Zealand, a region strongly affected by ENSO in the present day. The diatomite consists of seasonal alternations of light (diatom bloom) and dark (low diatom productivity) layers. Each light-dark couplet represents one year's sedimentation. Light-dark couplet thickness is characterised by ENSO-scale variability. We use high-resolution (sub-annual) measurements of colour spectra to detect couplet thickness variability. Wavelet analysis indicates that absolute values are modulated by orbital cycles. However, when orbital effects are taken into account, ENSO-like variability occurs throughout the entire depositional period, with no clear increase or reduction in relation to Antarctic deglaciation and increasing global warmth.

Impacts of Interannual Variability in Biogenic VOC Emissions near Transitional Ozone Production Regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Geddes, J.

2017-12-01

Due to successful NOx emission controls, summertime ozone production chemistry in urban areas across North America is transitioning from VOC-limited to increasingly NOx-limited. In some regions where ozone production sensitivity is in transition, interannual variability in surrounding biogenic VOC emissions could drive fluctuations in the prevailing chemical regime and modify the impact of anthropogenic emission changes. I use satellite observations of HCHO and NO2 column density, along with a long-term simulation of atmospheric chemistry, to investigate the impact of interannual variability in biogenic isoprene sources near large metro areas. Peak emissions of isoprene in the model can vary by up to 20-60% in any given year compared to the long term mean, and this variability drives the majority of the variability in simulated local HCHO:NO2 ratios (a common proxy for ozone production sensitivity). The satellite observations confirm increasingly NOx-limited chemical regimes with large interannual variability. In several instances, the model and satellite observations suggest that variability in biogenic isoprene emissions could shift summertime ozone production from generally VOC- to generally NOx- sensitive (or vice versa). This would have implications for predicting the air quality impacts of anthropogenic emission changes in any given year, and suggests that drivers of biogenic emissions need to be well understood.

The hydrography of the Mozambique Channel from six years of continuous temperature, salinity, and velocity observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ullgren, J. E.; van Aken, H. M.; Ridderinkhof, H.; de Ruijter, W. P. M.

2012-11-01

Temperature, salinity and velocity data are presented, along with the estimated volume transport, from seven full-length deep sea moorings placed across the narrowest part of the Mozambique Channel, southwest Indian Ocean, during the period November 2003 to December 2009. The dominant water mass in the upper layer is Sub-Tropical Surface Water (STSW) which overlies South Indian Central Water (SICW), and is normally capped by fresher Tropical Surface Water (TSW). Upper ocean salinity increased through 2005 as a result of saline STSW taking up a relatively larger part of the upper layer, at the expense of TSW. Upper waters are on average warmer and lighter in the central Channel than on the sides. Throughout the upper 1.5 km of the water column there is large hydrographic variability, short-term as well as interannual, and in particular at frequencies (four to seven cycles per year) associated with the southward passage of anticyclonic Mozambique Channel eddies. The eddies have a strong T-S signal, in the upper and central waters as well as on the intermediate level, as the eddies usually carry saline Red Sea Water (RSW) in their core. While the interannual frequency band displays an east-west gradient with higher temperature variance on the western side, the eddy frequency band shows highest variance in the centre of the Channel, where the eddy band contains about 40% of the total isopycnal hydrographic variability. Throughout the >6 years of measurements, the frequency and characteristics of eddies vary between periods, both in terms of strength and vertical structure of eddy T-S signals. These changes contribute to the interannual variability of water mass properties: an increase in central water salinity to a maximum in late 2007 coincided with a period of unusually frequent eddies with strong salinity signals. The warmest and most saline deep water is found within the northward flowing Mozambique Undercurrent, on the western side of the Channel. The Undercurrent has two cores: an intermediate one mainly containing diluted Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), and a deep one consisting of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW). In the intermediate core, T-S properties are strongly correlated with current velocity, probably because of the strong salinity gradient at the interface between Red Sea Water (RSW) and AAIW. In the deep core, velocity and hydrographic time series do not correlate on a daily basis, but they do at longer time scales.

On the interannual oscillations in the northern temperate total ozone

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Krzyscin, J.W.

1994-07-01

The interannual variations in total ozone are studied using revised Dobson total ozone records (1961-1990) from 17 stations located within the latitude band 30 deg N - 60 deg N. To obtain the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and 11-year solar cycle manifestation in the `northern temperate` total ozone data, various multiple regression models are constructed by the least squares fitting to the observed ozone. The statistical relationships between the selected indices of the atmospheric variabilities and total ozone are described in the linear and nonlinear regression models. Nonlinear relationships to the predictor variables are found. That is,more » the total ozone variations are statistically modeled by nonlinear terms accounting for the coupling between QBO and ENSO, QBO and solar activity, and ENSO and solar activity. It is suggested that large reduction of total ozone values over the `northern temperate` region occurs in cold season when a strong ENSO warm event meets the west phase of the QBO during the period of high solar activity.« less

Interannual variability of March snow mass over Northern Eurasia and its relation to the concurrent and preceding surface air temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, Kunhui

2018-06-01

The interannual variability of March snow water equivalent (SWE) in Northern Eurasia and its influencing factors are studied. The surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation are the dominant factors for the snow accumulation in northern Europe and the remaining region, respectively. The strongest contribution of SAT to snow accumulation is mainly found in those months with moderate mean SAT. The strongest contribution of precipitation is not collocated with the climatological maxima in precipitation. The leading mode of March SWE variability is obtained and characterized by a spatial dipole. Anomalies in atmospheric water vapor divergence, storm activity and the associated atmospheric circulation can explain many of the associated precipitation and SAT features. Anomalies in autumn Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) over the Barents Sea and Kara Sea (B/K Sea) and a dipole pattern of November snow cover (SC) in Eurasia are also observed. The atmospheric circulation anomalies that resemble a negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO) are strongly projected onto the wintertime atmospheric circulation. Both observations and model experiment support that the autumn B/K Sea SIC has some impacts on the autumn and AO/NAO-like wintertime atmospheric circulation patterns. The dipole pattern of November Eurasian SC seems to be strongly forced by the autumn B/K Sea SIC and its feedback to the atmospheric circulation is important. Therefore, the impacts of autumn B/K Sea SIC on the autumn/wintertime atmospheric circulation and thus the March SWE variability may be modulated by both constructive and destructive interference of autumn Eurasian SC.

Using TRMM Data To Understand Interannual Variations In the Tropical Water Balance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A significant element of the science rationale for TRMM centered on assembling rainfall data needed to validate climate models-- climatological estimates of precipitation, its spatial and temporal variability, and vertical modes of latent heat release. Since the launch of TRMM, a great interest in the science community has emerged for quantifying interannual variability (IAV) of precipitation and its relationship to sea-surface temperature (SST) changes. The fact that TRMM has sampled one strong warm/ cold ENSO couplet, together with the prospect for a mission lifetime approaching ten years, has bolstered this interest in these longer time scales. Variability on a regional basis as well as for the tropics as a whole is of concern. Our analysis of TRMM results so far has shown surprising lack of concordance between various algorithms in quantifying IAV of precipitation. The first objective of this talk is to quantify the sensitivity of tropical precipitation to changes in SSTs. We analyze performance of the 3A11, 3A25, and 3B31 algorithms and investigate their relationship to scattering-- based algorithms constructed from SSM/I and TRMM 85 kHz data. The physical basis for the differences (and similarities) in depicting tropical oceanic and land rainfall will be discussed. We argue that scattering-based estimates of variability constitute a useful upper bound for precipitation variations. These results lead to the second question addressed in this talk-- How do TRMM precipitation / SST sensitivities compare to estimates of oceanic evaporation and what are the implications of these uncertainties in determining interannual changes in large-scale moisture transport? We summarize results of an analysis performed using COADS data supplemented by SSM/I estimates of near-surface variables to assess evaporation sensitivity to SST. The response of near 5 W sq m/K is compared to various TRMM precipitation sensitivities. Implied moisture convergence over the tropics and its sensitivity to errors of these algorithms is discussed.

Tropical Forest Backscatter Anomaly Evident in SeaWinds Scatterometer Morning Overpass Data During 2005 Drought in Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Frolking, S. E.; Milliman, T.; Palace, M. W.; Wisser, D.; Lammers, R. B.; Fahnestock, M. A.

2010-12-01

A severe drought occurred in many portions of Amazonia in the dry season (June-September) of 2005. We analyzed ten years (7/99-10/09) of SeaWinds active microwave Ku-band backscatter data collected over the Amazon Basin, developing a monthly climatology and monthly anomalies from that climatology in an effort to detect landscape responses to this drought. We compared these to seasonal accumulating water deficit anomalies generated using Tropical Rainfall Monitoring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data (1999-2009) and 100 mm/mo evapotranspirative demand as a water deficit threshold. There was significant interannual variability in monthly mean backscatter only for ascending (early morning) overpass data, and little interannual variability in monthly mean backscatter for descending (late afternoon) overpass data. Strong negative anomalies in both ascending-overpass backscatter and accumulating water deficit developed during July-October 2005, centered on the southwestern Amazon Basin (Acre and western Amazonas states in Brazil; Madre de Dios state in Peru; Pando state in Bolivia). During the 2005 drought, there was a strong spatial correlation between morning overpass backscatter anomalies and water deficit anomalies. We hypothesize that as the drought persisted over several months, the forest canopy was increasingly unable to recover full leaf moisture content over night, and the early morning overpass backscatter data became anomalously low. This is the first reporting of tropical wet forest seasonal drought detection by active microwave scatterometry.

Temporal and spatial variations of surface particulate organic carbon in the Bohai and Yellow Sea of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hang, F.; Wang, X.; Yu, Z.

2017-12-01

The Yellow-Bohai Sea is a semi-closed marginal sea in the east of China, affected much by human activities, especially the Bohai Sea. The present study evaluates spatial and seasonal variations of surface particulate organic carbon (POC) that was derived from MODIS month-average data for the period of July 2002-December 2016. Our analyses show that POC concentrations are significantly higher in the Bohai Sea (314.7-587.9 mg m-3) than in the Yellow Sea (181.3-492.2 mg m-3). In general, POC concentrations were higher in the nearshore waters than in the offshore. There are strong seasonal to interannual variations in POC. Mean POC was highest in spring in both Bohai Sea and Yellow Sea; the lowest POC was found in summer in the Yellow Sea, but in winter in the Bohai Sea. The elevated POC from summer to fall indicates that there was allochthonous source of POC. Overall, there was a decreasing trend in POC prior to year 2012, followed by a strong upward trend until the end of 2015. The interannual variability in POC was significantly correlated with NPGO, PDO and ENSO in the Yellow Sea, but only with NPGO in the Bohai Sea. Our analyses point out that both climate variability and human activity may impacts the carbon cycle in the Yellow-Bohai Sea.

Improving uncertainty estimates: Inter-annual variability in Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pullinger, D.; Zhang, M.; Hill, N.; Crutchley, T.

2017-11-01

This paper addresses the uncertainty associated with inter-annual variability used within wind resource assessments for Ireland in order to more accurately represent the uncertainties within wind resource and energy yield assessments. The study was undertaken using a total of 16 ground stations (Met Eireann) and corresponding reanalysis datasets to provide an update to previous work on this topic undertaken nearly 20 years ago. The results of the work demonstrate that the previously reported 5.4% of wind speed inter-annual variability is considered to be appropriate, guidance is given on how to provide a robust assessment of IAV using available sources of data including ground stations, MERRA-2 and ERA-Interim.

Seasonal-to-Interannual Precipitation Variability and Predictability in a Coupled Land-Atmosphere System

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Suarez, M. J.; Heiser, M.

1998-01-01

In an earlier GCM study, we showed that interactive land surface processes generally contribute more to continental precipitation variance than do variable sea surface temperatures (SSTs). A new study extends this result through an analysis of 16-member ensembles of multi-decade GCM simulations. We can now show that in many regions, although land processes determine the amplitude of the interannual precipitation anomalies, variable SSTs nevertheless control their timing. The GCM data can be processed into indices that describe geographical variations in (1) the potential for seasonal-to-interannual prediction, and (2) the extent to which the predictability relies on the proper representation of land-atmosphere feedback.

Heavy Metals in the Atmosphere over the Northern Coast of Eurasia: Interannual Variations in Winter and Summer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vinogradova, A. A.; Ivanova, Yu. A.

2017-12-01

Interannual variations in the level of anthropogenic contamination of the surface air in the northern areas of Russia are studied, which are related to a change in the direction of air mass transport. The transport of air and heavy metals to four sites located on territories of nature reserves on the coast of the Arctic Ocean (from the Kola Peninsula to a delta of the Lena River) in winter (January) and summer (July) is analyzed for 2000-2013. Indices of atmospheric circulation and data on the emission of pollutants into the atmosphere in cities and regions of Russia are involved in the analysis. Concentrations of seven heavy metals in the surface air are evaluated in the Arctic regions under study and their interannual, spatial, and seasonal variations are discussed. A strong interannual variability of atmospheric circulation differently influences the variations in the atmosphere contamination with different anthropogenic heavy metals in various areas of the north of Russia. The concentration ratios of heavy metals under study are different for each site in different years. The interannual and seasonal variations in the contamination level have maximum values for heavy metals arriving from most distant sources. Thus, the results of measuring the content of anthropogenic contaminants in the air of reference areas during one season or even one year should not serve a basis for longterm conclusions and forecasts. It would be also unjustified to make general conclusions on the contamination level of the environment from observation results for only one contaminant and/or only at a single site.

Effect of Ocean Interannual Variability on Acoustic Propagation in the Philippine Sea and South China Sea

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-06-01

Coronas , 1920). The dominant pattern of interannual variability is the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which has two quasi-periodic states...Validation of Wavewatch-III using TOPEX/ Poseidon data. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol., 21, 1718–1733. Coronas , J., 1920: The climate and weather of the

Climate change enhances interannual variability of the Nile river flow

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siam, Mohamed S.; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2017-04-01

The human population living in the Nile basin countries is projected to double by 2050, approaching one billion. The increase in water demand associated with this burgeoning population will put significant stress on the available water resources. Potential changes in the flow of the Nile River as a result of climate change may further strain this critical situation. Here, we present empirical evidence from observations and consistent projections from climate model simulations suggesting that the standard deviation describing interannual variability of total Nile flow could increase by 50% (+/-35%) (multi-model ensemble mean +/- 1 standard deviation) in the twenty-first century compared to the twentieth century. We attribute the relatively large change in interannual variability of the Nile flow to projected increases in future occurrences of El Niño and La Niña events and to observed teleconnection between the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Nile River flow. Adequacy of current water storage capacity and plans for additional storage capacity in the basin will need to be re-evaluated given the projected enhancement of interannual variability in the future flow of the Nile river.

Interannual variability of physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay: A marine protected area in Labrador, Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Best, Sara; Lundrigan, Sarah; Demirov, Entcho; Wroblewski, Joe

2011-10-01

Gilbert Bay on the southeast coast of Labrador is the site of the first Marine Protected Area (MPA) established in the subarctic coastal zone of eastern Canada. The MPA was created to conserve a genetically distinctive population of Atlantic cod, Gadus morhua. This article presents results from a study of the interannual variability in atmospheric and physical oceanographic characteristics of Gilbert Bay over the period 1949-2006. We describe seasonal and interannual variability of the atmospheric parameters at the sea surface in the bay. The interannual variability of the atmosphere in the Gilbert Bay region is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and a recent warming trend in the local climate of coastal Labrador. The related changes in seawater temperature, salinity and sea-ice thickness in winter are simulated with a one-dimensional water column model, the General Ocean Turbulence Model (GOTM). A warming Gilbert Bay ecosystem would be favorable for cod growth, but reduced sea-ice formation during the winter months increases the danger of traveling across the bay by snowmobile.

Regional simulation of interannual variability over South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, V.; Dirmeyer, P. A.; Kirtman, B. P.; Juang, H.-M. Henry; Kanamitsu, M.

2002-08-01

Three regional climate simulations covering the austral summer season during three contrasting phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle were conducted with the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) developed at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The simulated interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon River Basin, the Intertropical Convergence Zone, the Pacific and Atlantic Ocean basins, and extratropical South America compare reasonably well with observations. The RSM optimally filters the peturbations about a time-varying base field, thereby enhancing the information content of the global NCEP reanalysis. The model is better than the reanalysis in reproducing the observed interannual variability of outgoing longwave radiation at both high frequencies (3-30 days) and intraseasonal (30-60 days) scales. The low-level jet shows a peak in its speed in 1998 and a minimum in the 1999 simulations. The lag correlation of the jet index with convection over various areas in continental South America indicates that the jet induces precipitation over the Pampas region downstream. A detailed moisture budget was conducted over various subregions. This budget reveals that moisture flux convergence determines most of the interannual variability of precipitation over the Amazon Basin, the Atlantic Intertropical Convergence Zone, and the Nordeste region of Brazil. However, both surface evaporation and surface moisture flux convergence were found to be critical in determining the interannual variability of precipitation over the southern Pampas, Gran Chaco area, and the South Atlantic Convergence Zone.

A Bayesian methodological framework for accommodating interannual variability of nutrient loading with the SPARROW model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wellen, Christopher; Arhonditsis, George B.; Labencki, Tanya; Boyd, Duncan

2012-10-01

Regression-type, hybrid empirical/process-based models (e.g., SPARROW, PolFlow) have assumed a prominent role in efforts to estimate the sources and transport of nutrient pollution at river basin scales. However, almost no attempts have been made to explicitly accommodate interannual nutrient loading variability in their structure, despite empirical and theoretical evidence indicating that the associated source/sink processes are quite variable at annual timescales. In this study, we present two methodological approaches to accommodate interannual variability with the Spatially Referenced Regressions on Watershed attributes (SPARROW) nonlinear regression model. The first strategy uses the SPARROW model to estimate a static baseline load and climatic variables (e.g., precipitation) to drive the interannual variability. The second approach allows the source/sink processes within the SPARROW model to vary at annual timescales using dynamic parameter estimation techniques akin to those used in dynamic linear models. Model parameterization is founded upon Bayesian inference techniques that explicitly consider calibration data and model uncertainty. Our case study is the Hamilton Harbor watershed, a mixed agricultural and urban residential area located at the western end of Lake Ontario, Canada. Our analysis suggests that dynamic parameter estimation is the more parsimonious of the two strategies tested and can offer insights into the temporal structural changes associated with watershed functioning. Consistent with empirical and theoretical work, model estimated annual in-stream attenuation rates varied inversely with annual discharge. Estimated phosphorus source areas were concentrated near the receiving water body during years of high in-stream attenuation and dispersed along the main stems of the streams during years of low attenuation, suggesting that nutrient source areas are subject to interannual variability.

Low-frequency variability of the Atlantic MOC in the eddying regime : the intrinsic component.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gregorio, S.; Penduff, T.; Barnier, B.; Molines, J.-M.; Le Sommer, J.

2012-04-01

A 327-year 1/4° global ocean/sea-ice simulation has been produced by the DRAKKAR ocean modeling consortium. This simulation is forced by a repeated seasonal atmospheric forcing but nevertheless exhibits a substantial low-frequency variability (at interannual and longer timescales), which is therefore of intrinsic origin. This nonlinearly-generated intrinsic variability is almost absent from the coarse-resolution (2°) version of this simulation. Comparing the 1/4° simulation with its fully-forced counterpart, Penduff et al. (2011) have shown that the low-frequency variability of local sea-level is largely generated by the ocean itself in eddying areas, rather than directly forced by the atmosphere. Using the same simulations, the present study quantifies the imprint of the intrinsic low-frequency variability on the Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC) at interannual-to-decadal timescales in the Atlantic. We first compare the intrinsic and atmospherically-forced interannual variances of the Atlantic MOC calculated in geopotential coordinates. This analysis reveals substantial sources of intrinsic MOC variability in the South Atlantic (driven by the Agulhas mesoscale activity according to Biastoch et al. (2008)), but also in the North Atlantic. We extend our investigation to the MOC calculated in isopycnal coordinates, and identify regions in the basin where the water mass transformation exhibits low-frequency intrinsic variability. In this eddy-permitting regime, intrinsic processes are shown to generate about half the total (geopotential and isopycnal) MOC interannual variance in certain key regions of the Atlantic. This intrinsic variability is absent from 2° simulations. Penduff, T., Juza, M., Barnier, B., Zika, J., Dewar, W.K., Treguier, A.-M., Molines, J.-M., Audiffren, N., 2011: Sea-level expression of intrinsic and forced ocean variabilities at interannual time scales. J. Climate, 24, 5652-5670. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00077.1. Biastoch, A., Böning, C. W., Lutjeharms, J. R. E., 2008: Agulhas leakage dynamics affects decadal variability in Atlantic overturning circulation. Nature, 456, 489-492, doi: 10.1038/nature07426.

Sensitivity of Photosynthetic Gas Exchange and Growth of Lodgepole Pine to Climate Variability Depends on the Age of Pleistocene Glacial Surfaces

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Osborn, B.; Chapple, W.; Ewers, B. E.; Williams, D. G.

2014-12-01

The interaction between soil conditions and climate variability plays a central role in the ecohydrological functions of montane conifer forests. Although soil moisture availability to trees is largely dependent on climate, the depth and texture of soil exerts a key secondary influence. Multiple Pleistocene glacial events have shaped the landscape of the central Rocky Mountains creating a patchwork of soils differing in age and textural classification. This mosaic of soil conditions impacts hydrological properties, and montane conifer forests potentially respond to climate variability quite differently depending on the age of glacial till and soil development. We hypothesized that the age of glacial till and associated soil textural changes exert strong control on growth and photosynthetic gas exchange of lodgepole pine. We examined physiological and growth responses of lodgepole pine to interannual variation in maximum annual snow water equivalence (SWEmax) of montane snowpack and growing season air temperature (Tair) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) across a chronosequence of Pleistocene glacial tills ranging in age from 700k to 12k years. Soil textural differences across the glacial tills illustrate the varying degrees of weathering with the most well developed soils with highest clay content on the oldest till surfaces. We show that sensitivity of growth and carbon isotope discrimination, an integrated measure of canopy gas exchange properties, to interannual variation SWEmax , Tair and VPD is greatest on young till surfaces, whereas trees on old glacial tills with well-developed soils are mostly insensitive to these interannual climate fluctuations. Tree-ring widths were most sensitive to changes in SWEmax on young glacial tills (p < 0.01), and less sensitive on the oldest till (p < 0.05). Tair correlates strongly with δ13C values on the oldest and youngest tills sites, but shows no significant relationship on the middle aged glacial till. It is clear that growth and photosynthetic gas exchange parameters are sensitive to glacial till surfaces, which is evident by the different responses to SWEmax and Tair across sites.

Tropical storm interannual and interdecadal variability in an ensemble of GCM integrations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vitart, Frederic Pol.

1999-11-01

A T42L18 Atmospheric General Circulation Model forced by observed SSTs has been integrated for 10 years with 9 different initial conditions. An objective procedure for tracking model-generated tropical storms has been applied to this ensemble. Statistical tools have been applied to the ensemble frequency, intensity and location of tropical storms, leading to the conclusion that the potential predictability is particularly strong over the western North Pacific, the eastern North Pacific and the western North Atlantic. An EOF analysis of local SSts and a combined EOF analysis of vertical wind shear, 200 mb and 850 mb vorticity indicate that the simulated tropical storm interannual variability is mostly constrained by the large scale circulation as in observations. The model simulates a realistic interannual variability of tropical storms over the western North Atlantic, eastern North Pacific, western North Pacific and Australian basin where the model simulates a realistic large scale circulation. Several experiments with the atmospheric GCM forced by imposed SSTs demonstrate that the GCM simulates a realistic impact of ENSO on the simulated Atlantic tropical storms. In addition the GCM simulates fewer tropical storms over the western North Atlantic with SSTs of the 1950s than with SSTs of the 1970s in agreement with observations. Tropical storms simulated with RAS and with MCA have been compared to evaluate their sensitivity to a change in cumulus parameterization. Composites of tropical storm structure indicate stronger tropical storms with higher warm cores with MCA. An experiment using the GFDL hurricane model and several theoretical calculations indicate that the mean state may be responsible for the difference in intensity and in the height of the warm core. With the RAS scheme, increasing the threshold which determines when convection can occur increases the tropical storm frequency almost linearly. The increase of tropical storm frequency seems to be linked to an increase of CAPE. Tropical storms predicted by a coupled model produce a strong cooling of SSTs and their intensity is lower than in the simulations. An ensemble of coupled GCM integrations displays some skill in forecasting the tropical storm frequency when starting on July 1st.

AVHRR channel selection for land cover classification

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maxwell, S.K.; Hoffer, R.M.; Chapman, P.L.

2002-01-01

Mapping land cover of large regions often requires processing of satellite images collected from several time periods at many spectral wavelength channels. However, manipulating and processing large amounts of image data increases the complexity and time, and hence the cost, that it takes to produce a land cover map. Very few studies have evaluated the importance of individual Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) channels for discriminating cover types, especially the thermal channels (channels 3, 4 and 5). Studies rarely perform a multi-year analysis to determine the impact of inter-annual variability on the classification results. We evaluated 5 years of AVHRR data using combinations of the original AVHRR spectral channels (1-5) to determine which channels are most important for cover type discrimination, yet stabilize inter-annual variability. Particular attention was placed on the channels in the thermal portion of the spectrum. Fourteen cover types over the entire state of Colorado were evaluated using a supervised classification approach on all two-, three-, four- and five-channel combinations for seven AVHRR biweekly composite datasets covering the entire growing season for each of 5 years. Results show that all three of the major portions of the electromagnetic spectrum represented by the AVHRR sensor are required to discriminate cover types effectively and stabilize inter-annual variability. Of the two-channel combinations, channels 1 (red visible) and 2 (near-infrared) had, by far, the highest average overall accuracy (72.2%), yet the inter-annual classification accuracies were highly variable. Including a thermal channel (channel 4) significantly increased the average overall classification accuracy by 5.5% and stabilized interannual variability. Each of the thermal channels gave similar classification accuracies; however, because of the problems in consistently interpreting channel 3 data, either channel 4 or 5 was found to be a more appropriate choice. Substituting the thermal channel with a single elevation layer resulted in equivalent classification accuracies and inter-annual variability.

Comprehensive assessment of dam impacts on flow regimes with consideration of interannual variations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yongyong; Shao, Quanxi; Zhao, Tongtiegang

2017-09-01

Assessing the impact of human intervention on flow regimes is important in policy making and resource management. Previous impact assessments of dam regulation on flow regimes have focused on long-term average patterns, but interannual variations, which are important characteristics to be considered, have been ignored. In this study, the entire signatures of hydrograph variations of Miyun Reservoir in northern China were described by forty flow regime metrics that incorporate magnitude, variability and frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change for flow events based on a long-term synchronous observation series of inflow and outflow. Principal component analysis and cluster analysis were used to reduce the multidimensionality of the metrics and time and to determine impact patterns and their interannual shifts. Statistically significant driving factors of impact pattern variations were identified. We found that dam regulation resulted in four main impact classes on the flow regimes and that the regulated capacity was interannually attenuated from 1973 to 2010. The impact patterns alternated between the highly regulated class with extremely decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency and the slightly regulated class with extremely increasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and extreme intermittency from 1973 to 1987 and then stabilized in the latter class from 1988 to 2001. After 2001, the pattern gradually changed from the moderately regulated class with moderately decreasing flow magnitude, extreme variability, and extreme intermittency to the slightly regulated class with slightly decreasing flow magnitude, slight variability, and no intermittency. Decreasing precipitation and increasing drought were the primary drivers for the interannual variations of the impact patterns, and inflow variability was the most significant factor affecting the patterns, followed by flow event frequency and duration, magnitude, and timing. This study shows that the use of interannual characteristics can help to gain more insight into the impact of dam regulation on flow regimes and will provide important information to scientifically guide the multi-purpose regulation of dams.

Parametric Sensitivity Analysis for the Asian Summer Monsoon Precipitation Simulation in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM Version 2.1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yang, Ben; Zhang, Yaocun; Qian, Yun

In this study, we apply an efficient sampling approach and conduct a large number of simulations to explore the sensitivity of the simulated Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation, including the climatological state and interannual variability, to eight parameters related to the cloud and precipitation processes in the Beijing Climate Center AGCM version 2.1 (BCC_AGCM2.1). Our results show that BCC_AGCM2.1 has large biases in simulating the ASM precipitation. The precipitation efficiency and evaporation coefficient for deep convection are the most sensitive parameters in simulating the ASM precipitation. With optimal parameter values, the simulated precipitation climatology could be remarkably improved, e.g. increasedmore » precipitation over the equator Indian Ocean, suppressed precipitation over the Philippine Sea, and more realistic Meiyu distribution over Eastern China. The ASM precipitation interannual variability is further analyzed, with a focus on the ENSO impacts. It shows the simulations with better ASM precipitation climatology can also produce more realistic precipitation anomalies during El Niño decaying summer. In the low-skill experiments for precipitation climatology, the ENSO-induced precipitation anomalies are most significant over continents (vs. over ocean in observation) in the South Asian monsoon region. More realistic results are derived from the higher-skill experiments with stronger anomalies over the Indian Ocean and weaker anomalies over India and the western Pacific, favoring more evident easterly anomalies forced by the tropical Indian Ocean warming and stronger Indian Ocean-western Pacific tele-connection as observed. Our model results reveal a strong connection between the simulated ASM precipitation climatological state and interannual variability in BCC_AGCM2.1 when key parameters are perturbed.« less

Variations in atmospheric CO2 growth rates coupled with tropical temperature

PubMed Central

Wang, Weile; Ciais, Philippe; Nemani, Ramakrishna R.; Canadell, Josep G.; Piao, Shilong; Sitch, Stephen; White, Michael A.; Hashimoto, Hirofumi; Milesi, Cristina; Myneni, Ranga B.

2013-01-01

Previous studies have highlighted the occurrence and intensity of El Niño–Southern Oscillation as important drivers of the interannual variability of the atmospheric CO2 growth rate, but the underlying biogeophysical mechanisms governing such connections remain unclear. Here we show a strong and persistent coupling (r2 ≈ 0.50) between interannual variations of the CO2 growth rate and tropical land–surface air temperature during 1959 to 2011, with a 1 °C tropical temperature anomaly leading to a 3.5 ± 0.6 Petagrams of carbon per year (PgC/y) CO2 growth-rate anomaly on average. Analysis of simulation results from Dynamic Global Vegetation Models suggests that this temperature–CO2 coupling is contributed mainly by the additive responses of heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and net primary production (NPP) to temperature variations in tropical ecosystems. However, we find a weaker and less consistent (r2 ≈ 0.25) interannual coupling between CO2 growth rate and tropical land precipitation than diagnosed from the Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, likely resulting from the subtractive responses of tropical Rh and NPP to precipitation anomalies that partly offset each other in the net ecosystem exchange (i.e., net ecosystem exchange ≈ Rh − NPP). Variations in other climate variables (e.g., large-scale cloudiness) and natural disturbances (e.g., volcanic eruptions) may induce transient reductions in the temperature–CO2 coupling, but the relationship is robust during the past 50 y and shows full recovery within a few years after any such major variability event. Therefore, it provides an important diagnostic tool for improved understanding of the contemporary and future global carbon cycle. PMID:23884654

Seasonal and Inter-Annual Changes in the Distribution of Dominant Phytoplancton Groups in the Global Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Severine, A.; Cyril, M.; Yves, D.; Laurent, B.; Hubert, L.

2006-12-01

The fate of fixed organic carbon in the ocean strongly varies with the phytoplankton group that makes photosynthesis. The monitoring of phytoplankton groups in the global ocean is thus of primary importance to evaluate and improve ocean carbon models. A new method (PHYSAT; Alvain et al., 2005) enables to distinguish between four different groups from space using SeaWiFS ocean color measurements. In addition to these four initial phytoplankton groups, which are diatoms, Prochlorococcus, Synecochoccus and haptophytes, we show that PHYSAT is also capable of identifying blooms of phaeocystis and coccolithophorids. Daily global SeaWiFS level-3 data from September 1997 to December 2004 were processed using PHYSAT. We present here the first monthly mean global climatology of the dominant phytoplankton groups. The seasonal cycle is discussed, with particular emphasis on the succession of phytoplankton groups during the North Atlantic spring bloom and on the coexistence of large phaeocystis and diatoms blooms during winter in the Austral Ocean. We also present the inter-annual variability for the 1998-2004 period. The contribution of diatoms to the total chlorophyll is highly variable (up to a factor of two) from one year to the other in both Atlantic and Austral Oceans, suggesting a significant variability in organic carbon export by diatoms in these regions. On the opposite, the phaeocystis contribution is less variable in the Austral Ocean.

Impacts of sea-surface salinity in an eddy-resolving semi-global OGCM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Furue, Ryo; Takatama, Kohei; Sasaki, Hideharu; Schneider, Niklas; Nonaka, Masami; Taguchi, Bunmei

2018-02-01

To explore the impacts of sea-surface salinity (SSS) on the interannual variability of upper-ocean state, we compare two 10-year runs of an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model (OGCM): in one, SSS is strongly restored toward a monthly climatology (World Ocean Atlas '98) and in the other, toward the SSS of a monthly gridded Argo product. The inclusion of the Argo SSS generally improves the interannual variability of the mixed layer depth; particularly so in the western tropical Pacific, where so-called "barrier layers" are reproduced when the Argo SSS is included. The upper-ocean subsurface salinity variability is also improved in the tropics and subtropics even below the mixed layer. To understand the reason for the latter improvement, we separate the salinity difference between the two runs into its "dynamical" and "spiciness" components. The dynamical component is dominated by small-scale noise due to the chaotic nature of mesoscale eddies. The spiciness difference indicates that as expected from the upper-ocean general circulation, SSS variability in the mixed layer is subducted into the thermocline in subtropics; this signal is generally advected downward, equatorward, and westward in the equator-side of the subtropical gyre. The SSS signal subducted in the subtropical North Pacific appears to enter the Indian Ocean through the Indonesian Throughflow, although this signal is weak and probably insignificant in our model.

Internal and forced eddy variability in the Labrador Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bracco, A.; Luo, H.; Zhong, Y.; Lilly, J.

2009-04-01

Water mass transformation in the Labrador Sea, widely believed to be one of the key regions in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), now appears to be strongly impacted by vortex dynamics of the unstable boundary current. Large interannual variations in both eddy shedding and buoyancy transport from the boundary current have been observed but not explained, and are apparently sensitive to the state of the inflowing current. Heat and salinity fluxes associated with the eddies drive ventilation changes not accounted for by changes in local surface forcing, particularly during occasional years of extreme eddy activity, and constitute a predominant source of "internal" oceanic variability. The nature of this variable eddy-driven restratification is one of the outstanding questions along the northern transformation pathway. Here we investigate the eddy generation mechanism and the associated buoyancy fluxes by combining realistic and idealized numerical modeling, data analysis, and theory. Theory, supported by idealized experiments, provides criteria to test hypotheses as to the vortex formation process (by baroclinic instability linked to the bottom topography). Ensembles of numerical experiments with a high-resolution regional model (ROMS) allow for quantifying the sensitivity of eddy generation and property transport to variations in local and external forcing parameters. For the first time, we reproduce with a numerical simulation the observed interannual variability in the eddy kinetic energy in the convective region of the Labrador Basin and along the West Greenland Current.

Future changes of interannual variation of the Asian summer monsoon precipitation using the CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kamizawa, Nozomi; Takahashi, Hiroshi G.

2015-04-01

The Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region is one of the most populated areas in the world. Since the life of people who live in the region and the industry are strongly dependent on the ASM precipitation, it is interested that how it would change under the circumstance of global warming. Many studies have reported that the mean ASM precipitation would increase by comparing the CMIP models' climatology. Although the changes in mean climate are important, the long-term changes of interannual variability in precipitation are also significant. This study investigated the long-term trend of interannual precipitation variation over the ASM region by using 22 CMIP5 models. The RCP4.5 scenario was used. To investigate the long-term trend of the interannual variation of the ASM precipitation, each model data was recreated to 2.5 degree resolution and a running standard deviation for 21 years of June-July-August (JJA) precipitation were calculated. Next, we created the coefficient variation (CV) by dividing the running standard deviation by the mean JJA precipitation. Then we run a Mann-Kendall test for the CV at each grid. There were more areas which were indicated a statistically significant increasing trend than a decreasing trend in the ASM region. 40.6% of the region indicated an increasing trend in the future. On the other hand, 16.8% of the area was indicated to have a decreasing trend. It was also common in the global scale that the there were more areas that indicated an increasing trend than a decreasing trend. We also divided the area into three groups: land, shore and open ocean. In the ASM region, the shore areas particularly had an increasing CV trend. To investigate the long-term changes of the interannual variability of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation over the ASM region, we conducted a composite analysis for the five wettest and driest years for two periods: the early 21st century (2007-2031) and the late 21st century (2076-2100). The special patterns of the interannual variation of the precipitation and the atmospheric circulation between the two periods had differed only slightly. A positive deviation precipitation band with a cyclonic circulation was recognized from across the Bay of Bengal to the equatorial Northwest Pacific. The none-big-difference of the patterns may suggest that interannual variation in the ASM region would increase not because the pattern changes, but because the pattern's strength gets stronger or its frequency gets higher.

Multidecadal Changes and Interannual Variation in Springtime Phenology of North American Temperate and Boreal Deciduous Forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melaas, Eli K.; Sulla-Menashe, Damien; Friedl, Mark A.

2018-03-01

The timing of leaf emergence is an important diagnostic of climate change impacts on ecosystems. Here we present the first continental-scale analysis of multidecadal changes in the timing of spring onset across North American temperate and boreal forests based on Landsat imagery. Our results show that leaf emergence in Eastern Temperate Forests has consistently trended earlier, with a median change of about 1 week over the 30 year study period. Changes in leaf emergence dates in boreal forests were more heterogeneous, with some sites showing trends toward later dates. Interannual variability in leaf emergence dates was strongly sensitive to springtime accumulated growing degree days across all sites, and geographic patterns of changes in onset dates were highly correlated with changes in regional springtime temperatures. These results provide a refined characterization of recent changes in springtime forest phenology and improve understanding regarding the sensitivity of North American forests to climate change.

Interannual physiological and growth responses of glacial Juniperus to changes in atmospheric [CO2] since the Last Glacial Maximum

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerhart, L. M.; Harris, J. M.; Ward, J. K.

2011-12-01

During the Last Glacial Maximum, atmospheric [CO2] was as low as 180 ppm and has currently risen to a modern value of 393 ppm as a result of fossil fuel combustion and deforestation. In order to understand how changing [CO2] influenced trees over the last 50,000 years, we analyzed carbon isotope ratios and width of individual tree rings from glacial Juniperus specimens preserved in the Rancho La Brea tar pits in southern California (aged 14-49 kyr BP). Modern trees were also analyzed to compare effects of changing precipitation, temperature and atmospheric [CO2] on physiology and growth. To assess physiological responses, we calculated ci/ca (intercellular [CO2]/atmospheric [CO2]) for each annual ring of each tree. This ratio incorporates numerous aspects of plant physiology, including stomatal conductance and photosynthetic capacity. In addition, we measured ring widths for each sample, and standardized these measurements into indices in order to compare across individuals. Mean ci/ca values remained constant throughout 50,000 years despite major environmental changes, indicating a long-term physiological set point for ci/ca in this group. Constant ci/ca ratios would be maintained through offsetting changes in stomatal conductance and photosynthetic capacity. Glacial Juniperus never experienced ci values below 90 ppm, suggesting a survival compensation point for Juniperus. In addition, glacial trees showed significantly reduced interannual variation in ci/ca, even though interannual climatic variability was as high during the LGM in this region as it is today. A lack of variability in ci/ca of glacial trees suggests that tree physiology was dominated by low [CO2], which shows low interannual variation. Modern trees showed high interannual variation in ci/ca, since water availability dominates current physiological responses and varies greatly from year to year. Interestingly, interannual variation in ring width index did not show significant differences between glacial and modern trees, suggesting these trees were adapted to maintain growth under low [CO2]. These adaptations may constrain the ability of modern trees to fully utilize increases in atmospheric [CO2]. These results have significant implications for our understanding of the adaptations of trees to changing [CO2] and indicate that the environmental factors that most strongly influence plant physiology may have changed over geologic time scales.

Interannual to Decadal SST Variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, G.; Newman, M.; Han, W.

2017-12-01

The Indian Ocean has received increasing attention in recent years for its large impacts on regional and global climate. However, due mainly to the close interdependence of the climate variation within the Tropical Pacific and the Indian Ocean, the internal sea surface temperature (SST) variability within the Indian Ocean has not been studied extensively on longer time scales. In this presentation we will show analysis of the interannual to decadal SST variability in the Tropical Indian Ocean in observations and Linear Inverse Model (LIM) results. We also compare the decoupled Indian Ocean SST variability from the Pacific against fully coupled one based on LIM integrations, to test the factors influence the features of the leading SST modes in the Indian Ocean. The result shows the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode, which is strongly related to global averaged SST variability, passively responses to the Pacific variation. Without tropical Indo-Pacific coupling interaction, the intensity of IOB significantly decreases by 80%. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) mode demonstrates its independence from the Pacific SST variability since the IOD does not change its long-term characteristics at all without inter-basin interactions. The overall SSTA variance decreases significantly in the Tropical Indian Ocean in the coupling restricted LIM runs, especially when the one-way impact from the Pacific to the Indian Ocean is turned off, suggesting that most of the variability in the Indian Ocean comes from the Pacific influence. On the other hand, the Indian Ocean could also transport anomalies to the Pacific, making the interaction a complete two-way process.

A century of hydrological variability and trends in the Fraser River Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Déry, Stephen J.; Hernández-Henríquez, Marco A.; Owens, Philip N.; Parkes, Margot W.; Petticrew, Ellen L.

2012-06-01

This study examines the 1911-2010 variability and trends in annual streamflow at 139 sites across the Fraser River Basin (FRB) of British Columbia (BC), Canada. The Fraser River is the largest Canadian waterway flowing to the Pacific Ocean and is one of the world’s greatest salmon rivers. Our analyses reveal high runoff rates and low interannual variability in alpine and coastal rivers, and low runoff rates and high interannual variability in most streams in BC’s interior. The interannual variability in streamflow is also low in rivers such as the Adams, Chilko, Quesnel and Stuart where the principal salmon runs of the Fraser River occur. A trend analysis shows a spatially coherent signal with increasing interannual variability in streamflow across the FRB in recent decades, most notably in spring and summer. The upward trend in the coefficient of variation in annual runoff coincides with a period of near-normal annual runoff for the Fraser River at Hope. The interannual variability in streamflow is greater in regulated rather than natural systems; however, it is unclear whether it is predominantly flow regulation that leads to these observed differences. Environmental changes such as rising air temperatures, more frequent polarity changes in large-scale climate teleconnections such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and retreating glaciers may be contributing to the greater range in annual runoff fluctuations across the FRB. This has implications for ecological processes throughout the basin, for example affecting migrating and spawning salmon, a keystone species vital to First Nations communities as well as to commercial and recreational fisheries. To exemplify this linkage between variable flows and biological responses, the unusual FRB runoff anomalies observed in 2010 are discussed in the context of that year’s sockeye salmon run. As the climate continues to warm, greater variability in annual streamflow, and hence in hydrological extremes, may influence ecological processes and human usage throughout the FRB in the 21st century.

Troposphere-stratosphere (surface-55 km) monthly winter general circulation statistics for the Northern Hemisphere Interannual variations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Geller, M. A.; Wu, M.-F.; Gelman, M. E.

1984-01-01

Individual monthly mean general circulation statistics for the Northern Hemisphere winters of 1978-79, 1979-80, 1980-81, and 1981-82 are examined for the altitude region from the earth's surface to 55 km. Substantial interannual variability is found in the mean zonal geostrophic wind; planetary waves with zonal wavenumber one and two; the heat and momentum fluxes; and the divergence of the Eliassen-Palm flux. These results are compared with previous studies by other workers. This variability in the monthly means is examined further by looking at both time-latitude sections at constant pressure levels and time-height sections at constant latitudes. The implications of this interannual variability for verifying models and interpreting observations are discussed.

Interannual Atmospheric Variability Simulated by a Mars GCM: Impacts on the Polar Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bridger, Alison F. C.; Haberle, R. M.; Hollingsworth, J. L.

2003-01-01

It is often assumed that in the absence of year-to-year dust variations, Mars weather and climate are very repeatable, at least on decadal scales. Recent multi-annual simulations of a Mars GCM reveal however that significant interannual variations may occur with constant dust conditions. In particular, interannual variability (IAV) appears to be associated with the spectrum of atmospheric disturbances that arise due to baroclinic instability. One quantity that shows significant IAV is the poleward heat flux associated with these waves. These variations and their impacts on the polar heat balance will be examined here.

Decadal Trends and Variability of Tropospheric Ozone over Oil and Gas Regions over 2005 - 2015

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Y.; Mao, H.; Sive, B. C.

2017-12-01

Tropospheric ozone (O3), which is produced largely by photochemical oxidation of nitrogen oxides (NOx) and volatile organic compounds, is a serious and ubiquitous air pollutant with strong negative health effects. Recent technological innovations such as horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have accelerated oil and natural gas production in the U.S. since 2005. The additional input of O3 precursors from expanding natural gas production might prolong the effort to comply the current O3 standard (70 ppbv). The objective of this study is to investigate the impact of oil and gas extractions on variability and long term trends of O3 in the intermountain west under varying meteorological conditions. We investigated long-term O3 trends at 13 rural sites, which were within 100 km of the shale play in the U.S. intermountain west. Significant decreasing trends (-0.35 - -3.38 ppbv yr-1) were found in seasonal O3 design values at six sites in spring, summer, or fall, while no trends were found in wintertime O3 at any sites. Wintertime O3 at each site showed strong and consistent interannual variation over 2006 - 2015, and was negatively correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index. The negative correlation was a result of multiple factors, such as in situ O3 photochemical production, stratospheric intrusion, and transport from the Arctic and California. In summer, wildfire emissions were the dominate driver to the interannual variations of high percentiles O3 at each site, while meteorological conditions (i.e., temperature and relative humidity) determined the interannual variations of low percentiles O3. Box model simulations indicated that O3 production rates were 31.51 ppbv h-1 over winters of 2012 - 2014 and 32.12 ppbv h-1 in summer 2014 around shale gas extraction regions.

The 2015-2016 El Nino and the Response of the Carbon Cycle: Findings from NASA's OCO-2 Mission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterjee, Abhishek; Schimel, D.; Stephens, B.; Crisp, D.; Eldering, A.; Feely, R.; Gierach, M.; Gunson, M.; Keeling, R.; Landschuetzer, P.;

Interannual Modulation of Subtropical Atlantic Boreal Summer Dust Variability by ENSO

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

DeFlorio, Mike; Goodwin, Ian D.; Cayan, Dan

2016-01-01

Dust variability in the climate system has been studied for several decades, yet there remains an incomplete understanding of the dynamical mechanisms controlling interannual and decadal variations in dust transport. The sparseness of multi-year observational datasets has limited our understanding of the relationship between climate variations and atmospheric dust. We use available observations and a century-length fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) simulation to show that the El Niño- Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a control on North African dust transport during boreal summer. In CESM, this relationship is stronger over the dusty tropical North Atlantic than near Barbados, onemore » of the few sites having a multi-decadal observed record. During strong La Niña summers in CESM, a statistically significant increase in lower tropospheric easterly wind is associated with an increase in North African dust transport over the Atlantic. Barbados dust and Pacific SST variability are only weakly correlated in both observations and CESM, suggesting that other processes are controlling the crossbasin variability of dust. We also use our CESM simulation to show that the relationship between downstream North African dust transport and ENSO fluctuates on multidecadal timescales and may be modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our findings indicate that existing observations of dust over the tropical North Atlantic are not extensive enough to completely describe the variability of dust and dust transport, and demonstrate the importance of global models to supplement and interpret observational records.« less

Interannual rainfall variability over China in the MetUM GA6 and GC2 configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, Claudia Christine; Klingaman, Nicholas P.; Vidale, Pier Luigi; Turner, Andrew G.; Demory, Marie-Estelle; Guo, Liang

2018-05-01

Six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model Global Atmosphere 6.0 and Global Coupled 2.0 configurations are evaluated against observations and reanalysis data for their ability to simulate the mean state and year-to-year variability of precipitation over China. To analyse the sensitivity to air-sea coupling and horizontal resolution, atmosphere-only and coupled integrations at atmospheric horizontal resolutions of N96, N216 and N512 (corresponding to ˜ 200, 90 and 40 km in the zonal direction at the equator, respectively) are analysed. The mean and interannual variance of seasonal precipitation are too high in all simulations over China but improve with finer resolution and coupling. Empirical orthogonal teleconnection (EOT) analysis is applied to simulated and observed precipitation to identify spatial patterns of temporally coherent interannual variability in seasonal precipitation. To connect these patterns to large-scale atmospheric and coupled air-sea processes, atmospheric and oceanic fields are regressed onto the corresponding seasonal mean time series. All simulations reproduce the observed leading pattern of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are the four leading patterns associated with the observed physical mechanisms. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. However, finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. This shows that evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient. The EOT analysis adds knowledge about coherent variability and associated mechanisms.

Streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in northern Quebec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis

DOE PAGES

Brigode, Pierre; Brissette, Francois; Nicault, Antoine; ...

2016-09-06

Over the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Québec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow time series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir and compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment and study the natural streamflow variability over themore » 1881–2011 period in that region. This new reconstruction is based not on natural proxies but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall–runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, in terms of both monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows and the other on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability in the reconstructed flows was similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with noteworthy changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the reconstructed interannual variabilities were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but strongly different between 1880 and 1940. Here, the results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions and, finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities.« less

Streamflow variability over the 1881–2011 period in northern Quebec: comparison of hydrological reconstructions based on tree rings and geopotential height field reanalysis

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Brigode, Pierre; Brissette, Francois; Nicault, Antoine

Over the last decades, different methods have been used by hydrologists to extend observed hydro-climatic time series, based on other data sources, such as tree rings or sedimentological datasets. For example, tree ring multi-proxies have been studied for the Caniapiscau Reservoir in northern Québec (Canada), leading to the reconstruction of flow time series for the last 150 years. In this paper, we applied a new hydro-climatic reconstruction method on the Caniapiscau Reservoir and compare the obtained streamflow time series against time series derived from dendrohydrology by other authors on the same catchment and study the natural streamflow variability over themore » 1881–2011 period in that region. This new reconstruction is based not on natural proxies but on a historical reanalysis of global geopotential height fields, and aims firstly to produce daily climatic time series, which are then used as inputs to a rainfall–runoff model in order to obtain daily streamflow time series. The performances of the hydro-climatic reconstruction were quantified over the observed period, and showed good performances, in terms of both monthly regimes and interannual variability. The streamflow reconstructions were then compared to two different reconstructions performed on the same catchment by using tree ring data series, one being focused on mean annual flows and the other on spring floods. In terms of mean annual flows, the interannual variability in the reconstructed flows was similar (except for the 1930–1940 decade), with noteworthy changes seen in wetter and drier years. For spring floods, the reconstructed interannual variabilities were quite similar for the 1955–2011 period, but strongly different between 1880 and 1940. Here, the results emphasize the need to apply different reconstruction methods on the same catchments. Indeed, comparisons such as those above highlight potential differences between available reconstructions and, finally, allow a retrospective analysis of the proposed reconstructions of past hydro-climatological variabilities.« less

Interannual summer variability in oceanic euphausiid communities off the Baja California western coast during 1998-2008

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parés-Escobar, Fernanda; Lavaniegos, Bertha E.; Ambriz-Arreola, Israel

2018-01-01

Euphausiids are a major component of the zooplankton biomass due to their large size, contributing with high carbon content to other trophic levels in the pelagic ecosystem. We analyzed the summer interannual variability in euphausiid species composition based on carbon mass of the Baja California oceanic domain during 1998-2008. Selection of one exclusive season allowed the emphasis of interannual changes in order to research possible biological impacts. During the period 1998-2008 prevailed intense interannual activity, with four El Niño events, two of them (1997-1998 and 2006-2007) with SST anomalies propagating toward the eastern Pacific (EP-El Niño), while the other two (2002-2003 and 2004-2005) had SST anomalies limited to the central Pacific (CP-El Niño). There were also La Niña events in 1998-2000 and 2007-2008. The species with higher biomass contribution off Baja California were Nematoscelis difficilis, Euphausia gibboides, Thysanoessa gregaria, Euphausia eximia, Nyctiphanes simplex, and Euphausia pacifica, with a global geometric mean of 156, 66, 38, 30, 21, and 13 μg C m-3 respectively. N. difficilis and E. pacifica were dominant in the northern area (29.5-32°N), N. difficilis and E. gibboides in the central area (27-29.5°N), and E. eximia dominated in the southern area (24.5-27°N). 1998-2008 biomass anomalies showed a variety of patterns by species with the clearest footprint, in most of the species, during the strong EP-El Niño 1997-1998. CP-El Niño events also left a footprint in the biomass of some species but this was not always by anomalies of the same nature as EP-El Niño. The best examples were N. difficilis and N. simplex, which presented lightly positive anomalies during July 1998 but were strongly negative in the summer of 2003 and 2004. The opposite was observed in E. recurva, with a negative anomaly in July 1998 but positive in 2004 and 2005. The biophysical coupling between the species assemblage and environmental variables, using canonical correspondence analysis (CCA), explained 22% of the biomass variability. The first axis was responsible for thermal conditions in the upper layer (temperature at 10 m, 50 m, and the gradient between 10 and 100 m depth), while the second axis concentrated the oxygen gradient, oxygen and salinity at 50 m depth, and 200 m temperature. A large group of tropical-subtropical species showed covariance with axis-1, while E. pacifica and T. spinifera had an inverse covariance. The equatorial species E. distinguenda and E. lamelligera were close to axis-2, though the stations were limited to slope water where intense upwelling bring oxygen depleted deep water. Transition zone species (E. gibboides, N. difficilis, T. gregaria, and N. simplex) were relatively inert to both axes. Their response to climatic variability was less predictable and new variables should be explored, including bottom-up and top-down mechanisms.

Interannual Variability in Global Soil Respiration on a 0.5 Degree Grid Cell Basis (1980-1994)

DOE Data Explorer

Raich, James W. [Iowa State University, Ames, IA (USA); Potter, Christopher S. [NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Moffett Field, Mountain View, CA (United States); Bhagawat, Dwipen [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Olson, L. M. [CDIAC, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN

2003-08-01

The Principal Investigators used a climate-driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil-CO2 emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil-to-atmosphere CO2 fluxes. The mean annual global soil-CO2 flux over this 15-y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3-81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil-CO2 emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil-CO2 emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests contributed more soil-derived CO2 to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type (~30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil-CO2 emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil-CO2 production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO2 concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands, and deserts), interannual variability in soil-CO2 emmissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil-CO2 fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 PgCY-1 per degree Celsius. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil-CO2 emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO2 emissions from soils.

Global modeling of land water and energy balances. Part III: Interannual variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Shmakin, A.B.; Milly, P.C.D.; Dunne, K.A.

2002-01-01

The Land Dynamics (LaD) model is tested by comparison with observations of interannual variations in discharge from 44 large river basins for which relatively accurate time series of monthly precipitation (a primary model input) have recently been computed. When results are pooled across all basins, the model explains 67% of the interannual variance of annual runoff ratio anomalies (i.e., anomalies of annual discharge volume, normalized by long-term mean precipitation volume). The new estimates of basin precipitation appear to offer an improvement over those from a state-of-the-art analysis of global precipitation (the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation, CMAP), judging from comparisons of parallel model runs and of analyses of precipitation-discharge correlations. When the new precipitation estimates are used, the performance of the LaD model is comparable to, but not significantly better than, that of a simple, semiempirical water-balance relation that uses only annual totals of surface net radiation and precipitation. This implies that the LaD simulations of interannual runoff variability do not benefit substantially from information on geographical variability of land parameters or seasonal structure of interannual variability of precipitation. The aforementioned analyses necessitated the development of a method for downscaling of long-term monthly precipitation data to the relatively short timescales necessary for running the model. The method merges the long-term data with a reference dataset of 1-yr duration, having high temporal resolution. The success of the method, for the model and data considered here, was demonstrated in a series of model-model comparisons and in the comparisons of modeled and observed interannual variations of basin discharge.

Controls on the interannual variability of hypoxia in a subtropical embayment and its adjacent waters in the Guangdong coastal upwelling system, northern South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Heng; Cheng, Weicong; Chen, Yuren; Yu, Liuqian; Gong, Wenping

2018-06-01

Coastal embayments located downwind of large rivers under an upwelling-favorable wind are prone to develop low-oxygen or hypoxic conditions in their bottom water. One such embayment is Mirs Bay, off the Guangdong coast, which is affected by upwelling and the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) plume during summer. The relative importance of physical and biochemical processes on the interannual variability of hypoxia in Mirs Bay and its adjacent waters was investigated using statistical analyses of monthly hydrographic and water quality monitoring data from 2001 to 2015. The results reveal that the southwesterly wind duration and the PRE river discharge together explain 49% of the interannual variability in the size of the hypoxic area, whereas inclusion of the nutrient concentrations inside Mirs Bay and phytoplankton on the shelf explains 75% of the interannual variability in the size of the hypoxic area. This finding suggests that the interannual variability of hypoxia in Mirs Bay is regulated by coupled physical and biochemical processes. Increase of the hypoxic area under a longer-lasting southwesterly wind is caused by increased stratification, extended bottom water residence time, and onshore transport of a low-oxygen water mass induced by stable upwelling. In contrast, a reduction in the size of the hypoxic area may be attributed to a decrease in the surface water residence time of the particulate organic matter outside Mirs Bay due to increased discharge from the PRE. The results also show that the effects of allochthonous particulate organic matter outside Mirs Bay on bottom hypoxia cannot be neglected.

1996-2007 Interannual Spatio-Temporal Variability in Snowmelt in Two Montane Watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jepsen, S. M.; Molotch, N. P.; Rittger, K. E.

2009-12-01

Snowmelt is a primary water source for ecosystems within, and urban/agricultural centers near, mountain regions. Stream chemistry from montane catchments is controlled by the flowpaths of water from snowmelt and the timing and duration of snow coverage. A process level understanding of the variability in these processes requires an understanding of the effect of changing climate and anthropogenic loading on spatio-temporal snowmelt patterns. With this as our objective, we are applying a snow reconstruction model to two well-studied montane watersheds, Tokopah Basin (TOK), California and Green Lakes Valley (GLV), Colorado, to examine interannual variability in the timing and location of snowmelt in response to variable climate conditions during the period from 1996 to 2007. The reconstruction model back solves for snowmelt by combining surface energy fluxes, inferred from meteorological data, with sequences of melt season snow images derived from satellite data (i.e., snowmelt depletion curves). Preliminary model results for 2002 were tested against measured snow water equivalent (SWE) and hydrograph data for the two watersheds. The computed maximum SWE averaged over TOK and GLV were 94 cm (~+17% error) and 50.2 cm (~+1% error), respectively. We present an analysis of interannual variability in these errors, in addition to reconstructed snowmelt maps over different land cover types under changing climate conditions between 1996-2007, focusing on the variability with interannual variation in climate.

Enhanced contribution of wetland methane variability during recent El Nino

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Z.; Poulter, B.

2017-12-01

Wetlands are thought to be the dominant contributor to interannual variability in atmospheric methane (CH4) with a strong influence from the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, whether the increase in emissions during El Nino droughts versus La Nina pluvial is from wetlands versus fire is unclear. Here we use a terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-wsl that included permafrost and wetland dynamics, and compare how three climate datasets with different temporal resolution (daily: MERRA2, ERA-Interim; monthly: CRU), to simulate the spatio-temporal dynamics of wetland CH4 emissions from 1980-2016 to compare it against the MEI ENSO index and in-site surface observations. We find that strong El Niño event in 2015-2016 caused a record-high growth rate of wetland CH4 emissions compared to previous decades, which was mainly due to the combined effects of droughts and widespread warming over tropics on soil respiration. Our study will bring new insights into the role of wetlands in driving the variability of atmospheric CH4.

The interannual variability of the Haines Index over North America

Treesearch

Lejiang Yu; Shiyuan Zhong; Xindi Bian; Warren E. Heilman; Joseph J. Charney

2013-01-01

The Haines index (HI) is a fire-weather index that is widely used as an indicator of the potential for dry, low-static-stability air in the lower atmosphere to contribute to erratic fire behavior or large fire growth. This study examines the interannual variability of HI over North America and its relationship to indicators of large-scale circulation anomalies. The...

Climate Downscaling over Nordeste, Brazil, Using the NCEP RSM97.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Liqiang; Ferran Moncunill, David; Li, Huilan; Divino Moura, Antonio; de Assis de Souza Filho, Francisco

2005-02-01

The NCEP Regional Spectral Model (RSM), with horizontal resolution of 60 km, was used to downscale the ECHAM4.5 AGCM (T42) simulations forced with observed SSTs over northeast Brazil. An ensemble of 10 runs for the period January-June 1971-2000 was used in this study. The RSM can resolve the spatial patterns of observed seasonal precipitation and capture the interannual variability of observed seasonal precipitation as well. The AGCM bias in displacement of the Atlantic ITCZ is partially corrected in the RSM. The RSM probability distribution function of seasonal precipitation anomalies is in better agreement with observations than that of the driving AGCM. Good potential prediction skills are demonstrated by the RSM in predicting the interannual variability of regional seasonal precipitation. The RSM can also capture the interannual variability of observed precipitation at intraseasonal time scales, such as precipitation intensity distribution and dry spells. A drought index and a flooding index were adopted to indicate the severity of drought and flooding conditions, and their interannual variability was reproduced by the RSM. The overall RSM performance in the downscaled climate of the ECHAM4.5 AGCM is satisfactory over Nordeste. The primary deficiency is a systematic dry bias for precipitation simulation.

Sole larval supply to coastal nurseries: Interannual variability and connectivity at interregional and interpopulation scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Savina, M.; Lunghi, M.; Archambault, B.; Baulier, L.; Huret, M.; Le Pape, O.

2016-05-01

Simulating fish larval drift helps assess the sensitivity of recruitment variability to early life history. An individual-based model (IBM) coupled to a hydrodynamic model was used to simulate common sole larval supply from spawning areas to coastal and estuarine nursery grounds at the meta-population scale (4 assessed stocks), from the southern North Sea to the Bay of Biscay (Western Europe) on a 26-yr time series, from 1982 to 2007. The IBM allowed each particle released to be transported by currents, to grow depending on temperature, to migrate vertically depending on development stage, to die along pelagic stages or to settle on a nursery, representing the life history from spawning to metamorphosis. The model outputs were analysed to explore interannual patterns in the amounts of settled sole larvae at the population scale; they suggested: (i) a low connectivity between populations at the larval stage, (ii) a moderate influence of interannual variation in the spawning biomass, (iii) dramatic consequences of life history on the abundance of settling larvae and (iv) the effects of climate variability on the interannual variability of the larvae settlement success.

The impact of Circulation Weather Types in Urban Air Quality in Portugal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Russo, Ana; Trigo, Ricardo

2013-04-01

It is now clear that emissions of the main air pollutants in Europe have declined significantly in recent decades (EEA, 2011). Nevertheless, many European countries (including Portugal) do not expect to comply with one (or more) pollutant emission ceilings and to air quality limit values, especially for particulate matter (PM), ground level ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (EEA, 2011). Consequently, and considering that air pollution (AP) plays a role as a major cause of human mortality and morbidity, exposure to pollutants remains a key environment-related health concern (EEA 2010). Thus, and to comply with the new limits, new strategies must be applied for air quality management. The main objective of this work is to present an objective classification of pre-defined and widely used CWTs affecting Portugal and, based on the most relevant patterns, provide a framework that is useful to characterise the occurrence of pollution episodes, namely its inter-annual and intra-annual variability, as well as the occurrence of extreme events. CWTs were determined using the simple Geostrophic approximation according to the methodology proposed by Trigo and DaCamara (2000). The interannual variability of the resulting CWTs was determined for the period with AP data (2002-2010) and the number of days for each CWT and season for the same period was accounted for. During this period, the most frequent CWTs were found to be the anticyclonic (A), the north (N) and the northeast (NE) types, accounting respectively for 34.7%, 10.9% and 14% of the days. However, higher-than average episodes tend to occur associated predominantly with situations characterized by a few less frequent CWTs, namely easterly (E), northeasterly (NE) and southeasterly (SE) types (that together contributed to less than one fourth of all observed days), are the ones which are associated to higher median and maximum concentrations of the three pollutants. Results obtained highlight the existence of strong links between the interannual variability of daily air quality and interannual variability of CWTs. Additionally, three specific extreme episodes were assessed in more detail including a comparison with results obtained with the HYSPLIT system model. In general, all the pollutants' extreme events occur associated predominantly with situations characterized by an Eastern component and advection of dry air masses.

The influence of global sea surface temperature variability on the large-scale land surface temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tyrrell, Nicholas L.; Dommenget, Dietmar; Frauen, Claudia; Wales, Scott; Rezny, Mike

2015-04-01

In global warming scenarios, global land surface temperatures () warm with greater amplitude than sea surface temperatures (SSTs), leading to a land/sea warming contrast even in equilibrium. Similarly, the interannual variability of is larger than the covariant interannual SST variability, leading to a land/sea contrast in natural variability. This work investigates the land/sea contrast in natural variability based on global observations, coupled general circulation model simulations and idealised atmospheric general circulation model simulations with different SST forcings. The land/sea temperature contrast in interannual variability is found to exist in observations and models to a varying extent in global, tropical and extra-tropical bands. There is agreement between models and observations in the tropics but not the extra-tropics. Causality in the land-sea relationship is explored with modelling experiments forced with prescribed SSTs, where an amplification of the imposed SST variability is seen over land. The amplification of to tropical SST anomalies is due to the enhanced upper level atmospheric warming that corresponds with tropical moist convection over oceans leading to upper level temperature variations that are larger in amplitude than the source SST anomalies. This mechanism is similar to that proposed for explaining the equilibrium global warming land/sea warming contrast. The link of the to the dominant mode of tropical and global interannual climate variability, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is found to be an indirect and delayed connection. ENSO SST variability affects the oceans outside the tropical Pacific, which in turn leads to a further, amplified and delayed response of.

How are interannual modes of variability IOD, ENSO, SAM, AMO excited by natural and anthropogenic forcing?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maher, Nicola; Marotzke, Jochem

2017-04-01

Natural climate variability is found in observations, paleo-proxies, and climate models. Such climate variability can be intrinsic internal variability or externally forced, for example by changes in greenhouse gases or large volcanic eruptions. There are still questions concerning how external forcing, both natural (e.g., volcanic eruptions and solar variability) and anthropogenic (e.g., greenhouse gases and ozone) may excite both interannual modes of variability in the climate system. This project aims to address some of these problems, utilising the large ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR climate model. In this study we investigate the statistics of four modes of interannual variability, namely the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using the 100-member ensemble of MPI-ESM-LR the statistical properties of these modes (amplitude and standard deviation) can be assessed over time. Here we compare the properties in the pre-industrial control run, historical run and future scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP2.6) and present preliminary results.

Terrestrial Waters and Sea Level Variations on Interannual Time Scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Llovel, W.; Becker, M.; Cazenave, A.; Jevrejeva, S.; Alkama, R.; Decharme, B.; Douville, H.; Ablain, M.; Beckley, B.

2011-01-01

On decadal to multi-decadal time scales, thermal expansion of sea waters and land ice loss are the main contributors to sea level variations. However, modification of the terrestrial water cycle due to climate variability and direct anthropogenic forcing may also affect sea level. For the past decades, variations in land water storage and corresponding effects on sea level cannot be directly estimated from observations because these are almost non-existent at global continental scale. However, global hydrological models developed for atmospheric and climatic studies can be used for estimating total water storage. For the recent years (since mid-2002), terrestrial water storage change can be directly estimated from observations of the GRACE space gravimetry mission. In this study, we analyse the interannual variability of total land water storage, and investigate its contribution to mean sea level variability at interannual time scale. We consider three different periods that, each, depend on data availability: (1) GRACE era (2003-2009), (2) 1993-2003 and (3) 1955-1995. For the GRACE era (period 1), change in land water storage is estimated using different GRACE products over the 33 largest river basins worldwide. For periods 2 and 3, we use outputs from the ISBA-TRIP (Interactions between Soil, Biosphere, and Atmosphere-Total Runoff Integrating Pathways) global hydrological model. For each time span, we compare change in land water storage (expressed in sea level equivalent) to observed mean sea level, either from satellite altimetry (periods 1 and 2) or tide gauge records (period 3). For each data set and each time span, a trend has been removed as we focus on the interannual variability. We show that whatever the period considered, interannual variability of the mean sea level is essentially explained by interannual fluctuations in land water storage, with the largest contributions arising from tropical river basins.

Interannual Variability, Global Teleconnection, and Potential Predictability Associated with the Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K. M.; Kim, K. M.; Li, J. Y.

2001-01-01

In this Chapter, aspects of global teleconnections associated with the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) are discussed. The basic differences in the basic dynamics of the South Asian Monsoon and the East Asian monsoon, and their implications on global linkages are discussed. Two teleconnection modes linking ASM variability to summertime precipitation over the continental North America were identified. These modes link regional circulation and precipitation anomalies over East Asia and continental North America, via coupled atmosphere-ocean variations over the North Pacific. The first mode has a large zonally symmetrical component and appears to be associated with subtropical jetstream variability and the second mode with Rossby wave dispersion. Both modes possess strong sea surface temperature (SST) expressions in the North Pacific. Results show that the two teleconnection modes may have its origin in intrinsic modes of sea surface temperature variability in the extratropical oceans, which are forced in part by atmospheric variability and in part by air-sea interaction. The potential predictability of the ASM associated with SST variability in different ocean basins is explored using a new canonical ensemble correlation prediction scheme. It is found that SST anomalies in tropical Pacific, i.e., El Nino, is the most dominant forcing for the ASM, especially over the maritime continent and eastern Australia. SST anomalies in the India Ocean may trump the influence from El Nino in western Australia and western maritime continent. Both El Nino, and North Pacific SSTs contribute to monsoon precipitation anomalies over Japan, southern Korea, northern and central China. By optimizing SST variability signals from the world ocean basins using CEC, the overall predictability of ASM can be substantially improved.

Why is seed production so variable among individuals? A ten-year study with oaks reveals the importance of soil environment.

PubMed

Pérez-Ramos, Ignacio M; Aponte, Cristina; García, Luis V; Padilla-Díaz, Carmen M; Marañón, Teodoro

2014-01-01

Mast-seeding species exhibit not only a large inter-annual variability in seed production but also considerable variability among individuals within the same year. However, very little is known about the causes and consequences for population dynamics of this potentially large between-individual variability. Here, we quantified seed production over ten consecutive years in two Mediterranean oak species - the deciduous Quercus canariensis and the evergreen Q. suber - that coexist in forests of southern Spain. First, we calibrated likelihood models to identify which abiotic and biotic variables best explain the magnitude (hereafter seed productivity) and temporal variation of seed production at the individual level (hereafter CVi), and infer whether reproductive effort results from the available soil resources for the plant or is primarily determined by selectively favoured strategies. Second, we explored the contribution of between-individual variability in seed production as a potential mechanism of satiation for predispersal seed predators. We found that Q. canariensis trees inhabiting moister and more fertile soils were more productive than those growing in more resource-limited sites. Regarding temporal variation, individuals of the two studied oak species inhabiting these resource-rich environments also exhibited larger values of CVi. Interestingly, we detected a satiating effect on granivorous insects at the tree level in Q. suber, which was evident in those years where between-individual variability in acorn production was higher. These findings suggest that individual seed production (both in terms of seed productivity and inter-annual variability) is strongly dependent on soil resource heterogeneity (at least for one of the two studied oak species) with potential repercussions for recruitment and population dynamics. However, other external factors (such as soil heterogeneity in pathogen abundance) or certain inherent characteristics of the tree might be also involved in this process.

Little Ice Age climatic erraticism as an analogue for future enhanced hydroclimatic variability across the American Southwest

PubMed Central

Loisel, Julie; MacDonald, Glen M.; Thomson, Marcus J.

2017-01-01

The American Southwest has experienced a series of severe droughts interspersed with strong wet episodes over the past decades, prompting questions about future climate patterns and potential intensification of weather disruptions under warming conditions. Here we show that interannual hydroclimatic variability in this region has displayed a significant level of non-stationarity over the past millennium. Our tree ring-based analysis of past drought indicates that the Little Ice Age (LIA) experienced high interannual hydroclimatic variability, similar to projections for the 21st century. This is contrary to the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA), which had reduced variability and therefore may be misleading as an analog for 21st century warming, notwithstanding its warm (and arid) conditions. Given past non-stationarity, and particularly erratic LIA, a ‘warm LIA’ climate scenario for the coming century that combines high precipitation variability (similar to LIA conditions) with warm and dry conditions (similar to MCA conditions) represents a plausible situation that is supported by recent climate simulations. Our comparison of tree ring-based drought analysis and records from the tropical Pacific Ocean suggests that changing variability in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) explains much of the contrasting variances between the MCA and LIA conditions across the American Southwest. Greater ENSO variability for the 21st century could be induced by a decrease in meridional sea surface temperature gradient caused by increased greenhouse gas concentration, as shown by several recent climate modeling experiments. Overall, these results coupled with the paleo-record suggests that using the erratic LIA conditions as benchmarks for past hydroclimatic variability can be useful for developing future water-resource management and drought and flood hazard mitigation strategies in the Southwest. PMID:29036207

Precipitation dynamics and chemical properties in tropical mountain forests of Ecuador

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rollenbeck, R.; Fabian, P.; Bendix, J.

2006-01-01

Terrestrial ecosystems in southern Ecuador are strongly affected by interannual climate variations. This holds especially true for the episodic El Niño events, which cause above-normal precipitation in the coastal region of Ecuador and below normal values in the eastern provinces of the Amazon basin (Bendix, 1999). For the transitional zone between these two extremes, which consists mainly of the andean slopes and larger interandean basins the effect on interannual climate variability is not well known. The PREDICT project monitors regional climate in the provinces of Loja and Zamora-Chinchipe (4° S/79° W), where a strong gradients of precipitation are observed. Between the eastern slopes of the Cordillera Real and the dry valley of Catamayo, which are only 70km apart, rain totals drop from over 4000 mm to only 300 mm per year. These two extremes represent the both sides of the Andean mountain chain and are completely covered by the study area, which is 120 km in diameter. Methods used are a combination of point measurements (climate stations) and remote sensing devices (weather radar, satellite imagery), which enable a high-resolution real-time observation of rain distribution and underlying processes. By this, ideal conditions are given to monitor a potential shift of the transition zone between below-average and above-average rainfall situated in this region, if another ENSO-anomaly occurs. Furthermore variability of atmospheric nutrient inputs is analysed within the scope of the project, to assess further impacts on this ecosystem.

Anomalous intraseasonal events in the thermocline ridge region of Southern Tropical Indian Ocean and their regional impacts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jayakumar, A.; Gnanaseelan, C.

2012-03-01

The present study explores the mechanisms responsible for the strong intraseasonal cooling events in the Thermocline Ridge region of the southwestern Indian Ocean. Air sea interface and oceanic processes associated with Madden Julian Oscillation are studied using an Ocean General Circulation Model and satellite observations. Sensitivity experiments are designed to understand the ocean response to intraseasonal forcing with a special emphasis on 2002 cooling events, which recorded the strongest intraseasonal perturbations during the last well-observed decade. This event is characterized by anomalous Walker circulation over the tropical Indian Ocean and persistent intraseasonal heat flux anomaly for a longer duration than is typical for similar events (but without any favorable preconditioning of ocean basic state at the interannual timescale). The model heat budget analysis during 1996 to 2007 revealed an in-phase relationship between atmospheric fluxes associated with Madden Julian Oscillation and the subsurface oceanic processes during the intense cooling events of 2002. The strong convection, reduced shortwave radiation and increased evaporation have contributed to the upper ocean heat loss in addition to the slower propagation of active phase of convection, which supported the integration of longer duration of forcing. The sensitivity experiments revealed that dynamic response of ocean through entrainment at the intraseasonal timescale primarily controls the biological response during the event, with oceanic interannual variability playing a secondary role. This study further speculates the role of oceanic intraseasonal variability in the 2002 droughts over Indian subcontinent.

Seasonal and interannual variability of the Mid-Holocene East Asian monsoon in coral δ18O records from the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Donghuai; Gagan, Michael K.; Cheng, Hai; Scott-Gagan, Heather; Dykoski, Carolyn A.; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Su, Ruixia

2005-08-01

Understanding the full range of past monsoon variability, with reference to specific monsoon seasons, is essential to test coupled climate models and improve their predictive capabilities. We present a 54-year long, high-resolution skeletal oxygen isotope (δ18O) record extracted from a well-preserved, massive Porites sp. coral at Hainan Island, South China Sea, to investigate East Asian monsoon variability during summer and winter ∼4400 calendar yr ago. Analysis of modern coral δ18O confirms that Porites from Hainan Island are well positioned to record winter monsoon forcing of sea surface temperature (SST), as well as the influence of summer monsoon rainfall on sea surface salinity (SSS). The coral record for ∼4400 yr ago shows ∼9% amplification of the annual cycle of δ18O, in good agreement with coupled ocean-atmosphere models showing higher summer rainfall (lower coral δ18O) and cooler winter SSTs (higher coral δ18O) in response to greater Northern Hemisphere insolation seasonality during the Middle Holocene. Mean SSTs in the South China Sea during the Mid-Holocene were within 0.5 °C of modern values, yet the mean δ18O for the fossil coral is ∼0.6‰ higher than that for the modern coral, suggesting that the δ18O of surface seawater was higher by at least ∼0.5‰, relative to modern values. The 18O-enrichment is likely to be driven by greater advection of moisture towards the Asian landmass, enhanced monsoon wind-induced evaporation and vertical mixing, and/or invigorated advection of saltier 18O-enriched Pacific water into the relatively fresh South China Sea. The 18O-enrichment of the northern South China Sea ∼4400 yr ago contributes to mounting evidence for recent freshening of the tropical Western Pacific. Today, winter SST and summer SSS variability in the South China Sea reflect the interannual influence of ENSO and the biennial variability inherent to monsoon precipitation. Spectral analysis of winter SSTs ∼4400 yr ago reveals a strong ENSO cycle at 6.7 y, which is significantly longer than the average 3.6 y cycle observed since 1970. The results suggest that the influence of ENSO on winter SSTs in the South China Sea was well established by ∼4400 yr ago. However, spectral analysis of summer SSS ∼4400 yr ago shows no significant ENSO cycle, suggesting that teleconnections between ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall were restricted. Taken together, the results indicate marked differences in ENSO-monsoon interactions during the winter and summer monsoon seasons in the past. The fossil coral δ18O record also shows that the amplitude of interannual SST and SSS variability was stronger ∼4400 yr ago, despite ENSO variability being significantly weaker in the Pacific region. Thus it appears that the strengthened Mid-Holocene monsoon was sensitive to forces, other than ENSO, that acted as alternative drivers of interannual monsoon variability. If this is the case, greater interannual climate variability could accompany the strengthening of the Asian monsoon predicted to occur during the 21st century as transient greenhouse warming preferentially warms Eurasia, even if ENSO perturbations remain relatively stable.

An underestimated role of precipitation frequency in regulating summer soil moisture

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wu, Chaoyang; Chen, Jing M.; Pumpanen, Jukka

2012-04-26

Soil moisture induced droughts are expected to become more frequent under future global climate change. Precipitation has been previously assumed to be mainly responsible for variability in summer soil moisture. However, little is known about the impacts of precipitation frequency on summer soil moisture, either interannually or spatially. To better understand the temporal and spatial drivers of summer drought, 415 site yr measurements observed at 75 flux sites world wide were used to analyze the temporal and spatial relationships between summer soil water content (SWC) and the precipitation frequencies at various temporal scales, i.e., from half-hourly, 3, 6, 12 andmore » 24 h measurements. Summer precipitation was found to be an indicator of interannual SWC variability with r of 0.49 (p < 0.001) for the overall dataset. However, interannual variability in summer SWC was also significantly correlated with the five precipitation frequencies and the sub-daily precipitation frequencies seemed to explain the interannual SWC variability better than the total of precipitation. Spatially, all these precipitation frequencies were better indicators of summer SWC than precipitation totals, but these better performances were only observed in non-forest ecosystems. Our results demonstrate that precipitation frequency may play an important role in regulating both interannual and spatial variations of summer SWC, which has probably been overlooked or underestimated. However, the spatial interpretation should carefully consider other factors, such as the plant functional types and soil characteristics of diverse ecoregions.« less

The Spatial Coherence of Interannual Temperature Variations in the Antarctic Peninsula

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

King, John C.; Comiso, Josefino C.; Koblinsky, Chester J. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Over 50 years of observations from climate stations on the west coast of the Antarctic Peninsula show that this is a region of extreme interannual variability in near-surface temperatures. The region has also experienced more rapid warming than any other part of the Southern Hemisphere. In this paper we use a new dataset of satellite-derived surface temperatures to define the extent of the region of extreme variability more clearly than was possible using the sparse station data. The region in which satellite surface temperatures correlate strongly with west Peninsula station temperatures is found to be quite small and is largely confined to the seas just west of the Peninsula, with a northward and eastward extension into the Scotia Sea and a southward extension onto the western slopes of Palmer Land. Correlation of Peninsula surface temperatures with surface temperatures over the rest of continental Antarctica is poor confirming that the west Peninsula is in a different climate regime. The analysis has been used to identify sites where ice core proxy records might be representative of variations on the west coast of the Peninsula. Of the five existing core sites examined, only one is likely to provide a representative record for the west coast.

Inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic from semi-arid part of Deccan Volcanic Province, India: climatic and hydrogeochemical perspectives.

PubMed

Kale, Sanjay S; Ghole, Vikram Shantaram; Pawar, N J; Jagtap, Deepak V

2014-01-01

Semi-arid Karha basin from Deccan Volcanic Province, India was investigated for inter-annual variability of urolithiasis epidemic. The number of reported urolith patient, weather station data and groundwater quality results was used to assess impact of geoenvironment on urolithiasis. Data of 7081 urolith patient were processed for epidemiological study. Gender class, age group, year-wise cases and urolith type were studied in epidemiology. Rainfall, temperature, pan evaporation and sunshine hours were used to correlate urolithiasis. Further, average values of groundwater parameters were correlated with the number of urolith episodes. A total of 52 urolith samples were collected from hospitals and analysed using FTIR technique to identify dominant urolith type in study area. Result shows that male population is more prone, age group of 20-40 is more susceptible and calcium oxalate uroliths are dominant in study area. Year-wise distribution revealed that there is steady increase in urolithiasis with inflation in drought years. In climatic parameters, hot days are significantly correlated with urolithiasis. In groundwater quality, EC, Na and F are convincingly correlated with urolith patients, which concludes the strong relation between geo-environment and urolithiasis.

Regional variability in sea ice melt in a changing Arctic

PubMed Central

Perovich, Donald K.; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A.

2015-01-01

In recent years, the Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a precipitous decline in summer extent. The sea ice mass balance integrates heat and provides insight on atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The amount of surface melt and bottom melt that occurs during the summer melt season was measured at 41 sites over the time period 1957 to 2014. There are large regional and temporal variations in both surface and bottom melting. Combined surface and bottom melt ranged from 16 to 294 cm, with a mean of 101 cm. The mean ice equivalent surface melt was 48 cm and the mean bottom melt was 53 cm. On average, surface melting decreases moving northward from the Beaufort Sea towards the North Pole; however interannual differences in atmospheric forcing can overwhelm the influence of latitude. Substantial increases in bottom melting are a major contributor to ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, due to decreases in ice concentration. In the central Arctic, surface and bottom melting demonstrate interannual variability, but show no strong temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that under current conditions, summer melting in the central Arctic is not large enough to completely remove the sea ice cover. PMID:26032323

Simulation of seasonal US precipitation and temperature by the nested CWRF-ECHAM system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Ligang; Liang, Xin-Zhong; DeWitt, David; Samel, Arthur N.; Wang, Julian X. L.

2016-02-01

This study investigates the refined simulation skill that results when the regional Climate extension of the Weather Research and Forecasting (CWRF) model is nested in the ECMWF Hamburg version 4.5 (ECHAM) atmospheric general circulation model over the United States during 1980-2009, where observed sea surface temperatures are used in both models. Over the contiguous US, for each of the four seasons from winter to fall, CWRF reduces the root mean square error of the ECHAM seasonal mean surface air temperature simulation by 0.19, 0.82, 2.02 and 1.85 °C, and increases the equitable threat score of seasonal mean precipitation by 0.18, 0.11, 0.09 and 0.12. CWRF also simulates much more realistically daily precipitation frequency and heavy precipitation events, typically over the Central Great Plains, Cascade Mountains and Gulf Coast States. These CWRF skill enhancements are attributed to the increased spatial resolution and physics refinements in representing orographic, terrestrial hydrology, convection, and cloud-aerosol-radiation effects and their interactions. Empirical orthogonal function analysis of seasonal mean precipitation and surface air temperature interannual variability shows that, in general, CWRF substantially improves the spatial distribution of both quantities, while temporal evolution (i.e. interannual variability) of the first 3 primary patterns is highly correlated with that of the driving ECHAM (except for summer precipitation), and they both have low temporal correlations against observations. During winter, when large-scale forcing dominates, both models also have similar responses to strong ENSO signals where they successfully capture observed precipitation composite anomalies but substantially fail to reproduce surface air temperature anomalies. When driven by the ECMWF Reanalysis Interim, CWRF produces a very realistic interannual evolution of large-scale precipitation and surface air temperature patterns where the temporal correlations with observations are significant. These results indicate that CWRF can greatly improve mesoscale regional climate structures but it cannot change interannual variations of the large-scale patterns, which are determined by the driving lateral boundary conditions.

A new approach in space-time analysis of multivariate hydrological data: Application to Brazil's Nordeste region rainfall

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sicard, Emeline; Sabatier, Robert; Niel, HéLèNe; Cadier, Eric

2002-12-01

The objective of this paper is to implement an original method for spatial and multivariate data, combining a method of three-way array analysis (STATIS) with geostatistical tools. The variables of interest are the monthly amounts of rainfall in the Nordeste region of Brazil, recorded from 1937 to 1975. The principle of the technique is the calculation of a linear combination of the initial variables, containing a large part of the initial variability and taking into account the spatial dependencies. It is a promising method that is able to analyze triple variability: spatial, seasonal, and interannual. In our case, the first component obtained discriminates a group of rain gauges, corresponding approximately to the Agreste, from all the others. The monthly variables of July and August strongly influence this separation. Furthermore, an annual study brings out the stability of the spatial structure of components calculated for each year.

Nonlinear dynamics and predictability in the atmospheric sciences

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ghil, M.; Kimoto, M.; Neelin, J. D.

1991-01-01

Systematic applications of nonlinear dynamics to studies of the atmosphere and climate are reviewed for the period 1987-1990. Problems discussed include paleoclimatic applications, low-frequency atmospheric variability, and interannual variability of the ocean-atmosphere system. Emphasis is placed on applications of the successive bifurcation approach and the ergodic theory of dynamical systems to understanding and prediction of intraseasonal, interannual, and Quaternary climate changes.

An interdecadal climate dipole between Northeast Asia and Antarctica over the past five centuries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fang, Keyan; Chen, Deliang; Guo, Zhengtang; Zhao, Yan; Frank, David; He, Maosheng; Zhou, Feifei; Shi, Feng; Seppä, Heikki; Zhang, Peng; Neukom, Raphael

2018-03-01

Climate models emphasize the need to investigate inter-hemispheric climatic interactions. However, these models often underestimate the inter-hemispheric differences in climate change. With the wide application of reanalysis data since 1948, we identified a dipole pattern between the geopotential heights (GPHs) in Northeast Asia and Antarctica on the interdecadal scale in boreal summer. This Northeast Asia/Antarctica (NAA) dipole pattern is not conspicuous on the interannual scale, probably in that the interannual inter-hemispheric climate interaction is masked by strong interannual signals in the tropics associated with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Unfortunately, the instrumental records are not sufficiently long-lasting to detect the interdecadal variability of the NAA. We thus reconstructed GPHs since 1565, making using the proxy records mostly from tree rings in Northeast Asia and ice cores from Antarctica. The strength of the NAA is time-varying and it is most conspicuous in the eighteenth century and after the late twentieth century. The strength of the NAA matches well with the variations of the solar radiation and tends to increase in along with its enhancement. In boreal summer, enhanced heating associated with high solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere drives more air masses from the South to the North. This inter-hemispheric interaction is particularly strong in East Asia as a result of the Asian summer monsoon. Northeast Asia and Antarctica appear to be the key regions responsible for inter-hemispheric interactions on the interdecadal scale in boreal summer since they are respectively located at the front and the end of this inter-hemispheric trajectory.

ENSO/PDO-Like Variability of Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes Over the Satellite Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Miller, Tim L.

2008-01-01

Recent variations of tropical climate on interannual to near-decadal scales have provided a useful target for studying the nature of climate feedback processes. A strong warm / cold ENSO couplet (e.g. 1997-2000) along with several subsequent weaker events are prominent interannual signals that are part of an apparent longer term strengthening of the Walker circulation during the mid to late 1990's with some weakening thereafter. Decadal scale changes in tropical SST structure during the 1990s are accompanied by focusing of precipitation over the Indo-Pacific warm pool and an increase in tropical ocean evaporation of order 1.0 % /decade. Associated with ENSO and PDO-like tropical SST changes are surface freshwater and radiative fluxes which have important implications for heat and energy transport variations. In this study we examine how surface fluxes attending interannual to decadal SST fluctuations, e.g. precipitation (GPCP, TRMM), turbulent fluxes (OAFlux), and radiative fluxes (ERBE/CERES, SRB) are coupled. Using these data we analyze vertically-integrated divergence of moist static energy, divMSE, and its dry static energy and latent energy components. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations. Strong signatures ofMSE flux transport linking ascending and descending regions of tropical circulations are found. Relative strengths of these fluxes and transports are interpreted as a measure of efficiency in the overall process of tropical heat balance during episodes of warm or cold tropical SST.

Analysis of the trade-off between high crop yield and low yield instability at the global scale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ben-Ari, Tamara; Makowski, David

2016-10-01

Yield dynamics of major crops species vary remarkably among continents. Worldwide distribution of cropland influences both the expected levels and the interannual variability of global yields. An expansion of cultivated land in the most productive areas could theoretically increase global production, but also increase global yield instability if the most productive regions are characterized by high interannual yield variability. In this letter, we use portfolio analysis to quantify the tradeoff between the expected values and the interannual variance of global yield. We compute optimal frontiers for four crop species i.e., maize, rice, soybean and wheat and show how the distribution of cropland among large world regions can be optimized to either increase expected global crop production or decrease its interannual variability. We also show that a preferential allocation of cropland in the most productive regions can increase global expected yield at the expense of yield stability. Theoretically, optimizing the distribution of a small fraction of total cultivated areas can help find a good compromise between low instability and high crop yields at the global scale.

Effects of land use on the timing and magnitude of dissolved organic carbon and nitrate fluxes: a regional analysis of high-frequency sensor measurements from forested, agricultural, and urban watersheds

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Seybold, E. C.; Gold, A.; Inamdar, S. P.; Pradhanang, S. M.; Bowden, W. B.; Vaughan, M.; Addy, K.; Shanley, J. B.; Andrew, V.; Sleeper, R.; Levia, D. F., Jr.; Adair, C.; Wemple, B. C.; Schroth, A. W.

2017-12-01

Land use/land cover change has been shown to have significant impacts on nutrient loading to aquatic systems, and has been linked to coastal zone hypoxia and eutrophication of lake ecosystems. While it is clear that changes in land use/land cover are associated with changes in aquatic ecosystem function, a mechanistic understanding of how nutrient fluxes from distinct land cover classes respond to hydrologic events on event and seasonal scales remains unknown. Recent advances in the availability of high-frequency water quality sensors provide an opportunity to assess these relationships at a high temporal resolution. We deployed a network of in-situ spectrophotometers in watersheds with predominantly forested, agricultural, and urban land uses that spanned a latitudinal gradient in the northeastern US from Vermont to Delaware. Our study sought to assess how land cover affected the timing and magnitude of fluxes of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) from watersheds with distinct land uses, and to determine whether these relationships varied regionally. We found systematic differences in the timing and magnitude of C and N fluxes and strong variation in the annual mass fluxes from these distinct land cover classes. In particular, we found that while the phenology of C and N fluxes varied across land uses, there were distinct regional similarities in the C and N flux regimes within a given land use class. We also found strong inter-annual variability in carbon and nitrogen fluxes in response to inter-annual variability in precipitation and discharge, suggesting a high degree of hydrologic control over nutrient loading. These findings also emphasize the potential for climate change, and in particular precipitation variability, to drive strong variation in the magnitude of downstream nutrient flux to receiving lakes and estuaries. Our study emphasizes the pervasive influence of land cover and its effects on water quality, and also highlights the strong signature of anthropogenic land use choices on regional C and N cycling.

Effects of Uncertainty in TRMM Precipitation Radar Path Integrated Attenuation on Interannual Variations of Tropical Oceanic Rainfall

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan E.; Kummerow, Christian D.; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30 deg N/S) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Time series of rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) over the tropical oceans show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. We show that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series. Further analysis of the frequency distribution of PR (2A25 product) rain rates suggests that the algorithm incorporates the attenuation measurement in a very conservative fashion so as to optimize the instantaneous rain rates. Such an optimization appears to come at the expense of monitoring interannual climate variability.

Annually and monthly resolved solar irradiance and atmospheric temperature data across the Hawaiian archipelago from 1998 to 2015 with interannual summary statistics.

PubMed

Bryce, Richard; Losada Carreño, Ignacio; Kumler, Andrew; Hodge, Bri-Mathias; Roberts, Billy; Brancucci Martinez-Anido, Carlo

2018-08-01

This article contains data and summary statistics of solar irradiance and dry bulb temperature across the Hawaiian archipelago resolved on a monthly basis and spanning years 1998-2015. This data was derived in association with an article titled "Consequences of Neglecting the Interannual Variability of the Solar Resource: A Case Study of Photovoltaic Power Among the Hawaiian Islands" (Bryce et al., 2018 [7]). The solar irradiance data is presented in terms of Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI), Diffuse Horizontal Irradiance (DHI), and Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and was obtained from the satellite-derived data contained in the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). The temperature data is also obtained from this source. We have processed the NSRDB data and compiled these monthly resolved data sets, along with interannual summary statistics including the interannual coefficient of variability.

The East Asian Jet Stream and Asian-Pacific Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, Song; Lau, K.-M.; Kim, K.-M.

1999-01-01

In this study, the NASA GEOS and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and GPCP rainfall data have been used to study the variability of the East Asian westerly jet stream and its impact on the Asian-Pacific climate, with a focus on interannual time scales. Results indicate that external forcings such as sea surface temperature (SST) and land surface processes also play an important role in the variability of the jet although this variability is strongly governed by internal dynamics. There is a close link between the jet and Asian-Pacific climate including the Asian winter monsoon and tropical convection. The atmospheric teleconnection pattern associated with the jet is different from the ENSO-related pattern. The influence of the jet on eastern Pacific and North American climate is also discussed.

Evaluating and Quantifying the Climate-Driven Interannual Variability in Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI3g) at Global Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zeng, Fanwei; Collatz, George James; Pinzon, Jorge E.; Ivanoff, Alvaro

2013-01-01

Satellite observations of surface reflected solar radiation contain informationabout variability in the absorption of solar radiation by vegetation. Understanding thecauses of variability is important for models that use these data to drive land surface fluxesor for benchmarking prognostic vegetation models. Here we evaluated the interannualvariability in the new 30.5-year long global satellite-derived surface reflectance index data,Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies normalized difference vegetation index(GIMMS NDVI3g). Pearsons correlation and multiple linear stepwise regression analyseswere applied to quantify the NDVI interannual variability driven by climate anomalies, andto evaluate the effects of potential interference (snow, aerosols and clouds) on the NDVIsignal. We found ecologically plausible strong controls on NDVI variability by antecedent precipitation and current monthly temperature with distinct spatial patterns. Precipitation correlations were strongest for temperate to tropical water limited herbaceous systemswhere in some regions and seasons 40 of the NDVI variance could be explained byprecipitation anomalies. Temperature correlations were strongest in northern mid- to-high-latitudes in the spring and early summer where up to 70 of the NDVI variance was explained by temperature anomalies. We find that, in western and central North America,winter-spring precipitation determines early summer growth while more recent precipitation controls NDVI variability in late summer. In contrast, current or prior wetseason precipitation anomalies were correlated with all months of NDVI in sub-tropical herbaceous vegetation. Snow, aerosols and clouds as well as unexplained phenomena still account for part of the NDVI variance despite corrections. Nevertheless, this study demonstrates that GIMMS NDVI3g represents real responses of vegetation to climate variability that are useful for global models.

What is the Effect of Interannual Hydroclimatic Variability on Water Supply Reservoir Operations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Galelli, S.; Turner, S. W. D.

2015-12-01

Rather than deriving from a single distribution and uniform persistence structure, hydroclimatic data exhibit significant trends and shifts in their mean, variance, and lagged correlation through time. Consequentially, observed and reconstructed streamflow records are often characterized by features of interannual variability, including long-term persistence and prolonged droughts. This study examines the effect of these features on the operating performance of water supply reservoirs. We develop a Stochastic Dynamic Programming (SDP) model that can incorporate a regime-shifting climate variable. We then compare the performance of operating policies—designed with and without climate variable—to quantify the contribution of interannual variability to standard policy sub-optimality. The approach uses a discrete-time Markov chain to partition the reservoir inflow time series into small number of 'hidden' climate states. Each state defines a distinct set of inflow transition probability matrices, which are used by the SDP model to condition the release decisions on the reservoir storage, current-period inflow and hidden climate state. The experimental analysis is carried out on 99 hypothetical water supply reservoirs fed from pristine catchments in Australia—all impacted by the Millennium drought. Results show that interannual hydroclimatic variability is a major cause of sub-optimal hedging decisions. The practical import is that conventional optimization methods may misguide operators, particularly in regions susceptible to multi-year droughts.

Technical Report Series on Global Modeling and Data Assimilation. Volume 13; Interannual Variability and Potential Predictability in Reanalysis Products

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Min, Wei; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Suarez, Max J. (Editor)

1997-01-01

The Data Assimilation Office (DAO) at Goddard Space Flight Center and the National Center for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) have produced multi-year global assimilations of historical data employing fixed analysis systems. These "reanalysis" products are ideally suited for studying short-term climatic variations. The availability of multiple reanalysis products also provides the opportunity to examine the uncertainty in the reanalysis data. The purpose of this document is to provide an updated estimate of seasonal and interannual variability based on the DAO and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses for the 15-year period 1980-1995. Intercomparisons of the seasonal means and their interannual variations are presented for a variety of prognostic and diagnostic fields. In addition, atmospheric potential predictability is re-examined employing selected DAO reanalysis variables.

Understanding the West African monsoon variability and its remote effects: an illustration of the grid point nudging methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bielli, Soline; Douville, Hervé; Pohl, Benjamin

2010-07-01

General circulation models still show deficiencies in simulating the basic features of the West African Monsoon at intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual timescales. It is however, difficult to disentangle the remote versus regional factors that contribute to such deficiencies, and to diagnose their possible consequences for the simulation of the global atmospheric variability. The aim of the present study is to address these questions using the so-called grid point nudging technique, where prognostic atmospheric fields are relaxed either inside or outside the West African Monsoon region toward the ERA40 reanalysis. This regional or quasi-global nudging is tested in ensembles of boreal summer simulations. The impact is evaluated first on the model climatology, then on intraseasonal timescales with an emphasis on North Atlantic/Europe weather regimes, and finally on interannual timescales. Results show that systematic biases in the model climatology over West Africa are mostly of regional origin and have a limited impact outside the domain. A clear impact is found however on the eddy component of the extratropical circulation, in particular over the North Atlantic/European sector. At intraseasonal timescale, the main regional biases also resist to the quasi-global nudging though their magnitude is reduced. Conversely, nudging the model over West Africa exerts a strong impact on the frequency of the two North Atlantic weather regimes that favor the occurrence of heat waves over Europe. Significant impacts are also found at interannual timescale. Not surprisingly, the quasi-global nudging allows the model to capture the variability of large-scale dynamical monsoon indices, but exerts a weaker control on rainfall variability suggesting the additional contribution of regional processes. Conversely, nudging the model toward West Africa suppresses the spurious ENSO teleconnection that is simulated over Europe in the control experiment, thereby emphasizing the relevance of a realistic West African monsoon simulation for seasonal prediction in the extratropics. Further experiments will be devoted to case studies aiming at a better understanding of regional processes governing the monsoon variability and of the possible monsoon teleconnections, especially over Europe.

Global assessment of surfing conditions: seasonal, interannual and long-term variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Espejo, A.; Losada, I.; Mendez, F.

2012-12-01

International surfing destinations owe a great debt to specific combinations of wind-wave, thermal conditions and local bathymetry. As surf quality depends on a vast number of geophysical variables, a multivariable standardized index on the basis of expert judgment is proposed to analyze surf resource in a worldwide domain. Data needed is obtained by combining several datasets (reanalyses): 60-year satellite-calibrated spectral wave hindcast (GOW, WaveWatchIII), wind fields from NCEP/NCAR, global sea surface temperature from ERSST.v3b, and global tides from TPXO7.1. A summary of the global surf resource is presented, which highlights the high degree of variability in surfable events. According to general atmospheric circulation, results show that west facing low to middle latitude coasts are more suitable for surfing, especially those in Southern Hemisphere. Month to month analysis reveals strong seasonal changes in the occurrence of surfable events, enhancing those in North Atlantic or North Pacific. Interannual variability is investigated by comparing occurrence values with global and regional climate patterns showing a great influence at both, global and regional scales. Analysis of long term trends shows an increase in the probability of surfable events over the west facing coasts on the planet (i.e. + 30 hours/year in California). The resulting maps provide useful information for surfers and surf related stakeholders, coastal planning, education, and basic research.; Figure 1. Global distribution of medium quality (a) and high quality surf conditions probability (b).

Using Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnections to Analyze Interannual Precipitation Variability in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stephan, C.; Klingaman, N. P.; Vidale, P. L.; Turner, A. G.; Demory, M. E.; Guo, L.

2017-12-01

Interannual rainfall variability in China affects agriculture, infrastructure and water resource management. A consistent and objective method, Empirical Orthogonal Teleconnection (EOT) analysis, is applied to precipitation observations over China in all seasons. Instead of maximizing the explained space-time variance, the method identifies regions in China that best explain the temporal variability in domain-averaged rainfall. It produces known teleconnections, that include high positive correlations with ENSO in eastern China in winter, along the Yangtze River in summer, and in southeast China during spring. New findings include that variability along the southeast coast in winter, in the Yangtze valley in spring, and in eastern China in autumn, are associated with extratropical Rossby wave trains. The same analysis is applied to six climate simulations of the Met Office Unified Model with and without air-sea coupling and at various horizontal resolutions of 40, 90 and 200 km. All simulations reproduce the observed patterns of interannual rainfall variability in winter, spring and autumn; the leading pattern in summer is present in all but one simulation. However, only in two simulations are all patterns associated with the observed physical mechanism. Coupled simulations capture more observed patterns of variability and associate more of them with the correct physical mechanism, compared to atmosphere-only simulations at the same resolution. Finer resolution does not improve the fidelity of these patterns or their associated mechanisms. Evaluating climate models by only geographical distribution of mean precipitation and its interannual variance is insufficient; attention must be paid to associated mechanisms.

Variability and prediction of freshwater and nitrate fluxes for the Louisiana-Texas shelf: Mississippi and Atchafalaya River source functions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bratkovich, A.; Dinnel, S.P.; Goolsby, D.A.

1994-01-01

Time histories of riverine water discharge, nitrate concentration, and nitrate, flux have been analyzed for the Mississippi and Atchafalaya rivers. Results indicate that water discharge variability is dominated by the annual cycle and shorter-time-scale episodic events presumably associated with snowmelt runoff and spring or summer rains. Interannual variability in water discharge is relatively small compared to the above. In contrast, nitrate concentration exhibits strongest variability at decadal time scales. The interannual variability is not monotonic but more complicated in structure. Weak covariability between water discharge and nitrate concentration leads to a relatively “noisy” nitrate flux signal. Nitrate flux variations exhibit a low-amplitude, long-term modulation of a dominant annual cycle. Predictor-hindcastor analyses indicate that skilled forecasts of nitrate concentration and nitrate flux fields are feasible. Water discharge was the most reliably hindcast (on seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the fundamental strength of the annual hydrologic cycle. However, the forecasting effort for this variable was less successful than the hindcasting effort, mostly due to a phase shift in the annual cycle during our relatively short test period (18 mo). Nitrate concentration was more skillfully predicted (seasonal to interannual time scales) due to the relative dominance of the decadal-scale portion of the signal. Nitrate flux was also skillfully forecast even though historical analyses seemed to indicate that it should be more difficult to predict than either water discharge or nitrate concentration.

What causes the sporadic phytoplankton bloom southeast of Madagascar?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Uz, B. Mete

2007-09-01

A large, dendritic phytoplankton bloom develops in the austral summer of roughly every other year in the Indian Ocean southeast of Madagascar. It starts in February or March and dissipates by the end of April. It was observed in 1997, 1999, 2000, 2002, and 2004 and was absent in 1998, 2001, 2003, and 2005. A. Longhurst, who described it in 2001, suggested that the bloom is caused by the entrainment of nutrient-rich waters into a deepening mixed layer. At the time the bloom had been seen to fail only once, in 1998, and Longhurst attributed that to reduced entrainment due to low winds during the strong La Niña. Since reanalysis winds are not correlated with the occurrence/failure of the bloom, and since the bloom starts before sea surface temperature (SST) peaks and increased chlorophyll is found with high rather than low SST, entrainment is an unlikely cause. Argo float profiles from 2004 show the bloom within a shallow mixed layer over a very strong pycnocline. This indicates that the bloom is caused not by entrainment of nutrient-rich waters from below, but by another mechanism such as nitrogen fixation by diazotrophs that are retained within a shallow, well-lit layer, or nutrient fluxes due to vertically mobile plankton. This bloom is among the strongest features of interannual variability in the ocean color time series, second only to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related variability in terms of both the area effected and magnitude of the anomaly. While the mechanisms with which biology responds to the physical changes associated with ENSO are well-known and rather obvious in the strong correlations with physical indicators such as sea surface height or temperature, the occurrence/failure of a strong Madagascar bloom does not have an obvious correlation with any physical parameter. Of the many variables tested, only the landfall of tropical cyclones on the island of Madagascar correlated with the occurrence of the bloom. A hypothesis is presented, without any proof other than that it explains the location, seasonal timing, interannual variability, and observations of temperature and mixed layer depth, on the basis of the premise that runoff from the island alleviates iron limitation of diazotrophs. Definitive determination of the nature of the bloom will probably require in situ sampling.

Inter-annual variability and spatial coherence of net primary productivity across a western Oregon Cascades landscape

Treesearch

Travis J. Woolley; Mark E. Harmon; Kari B. O’Connell

2015-01-01

Inter-annual variability (IAV) of forest Net Primary Productivity (NPP) is a function of both extrinsic (e.g., climate) and intrinsic (e.g., stand dynamics) drivers. As estimates of NPP in forests are scaled from trees to stands to the landscape, an understanding of the relative effects of these factors on spatial and temporal behavior of NPP is important. Although a...

Contrasting subtropical PV intrusion frequency and their impact on tropospheric Ozone distribution over Pacific Ocean in El-Niño and La-Niña conditions.

PubMed

Nath, Debashis; Chen, Wen; Graf, Hans-F; Lan, Xiaoqiang; Gong, Hainan

2017-09-20

Upper tropospheric equatorial westerly ducts over the Pacific Ocean are the preferred location for Rossby wave breaking events during boreal winter and spring. These subtropical wave breaking events lead to the intrusion of high PV (potential vorticity) air along the extra-tropical tropopause and transport ozone rich dry stratospheric air into the tropics. The intrusion frequency has strong interannual variability due to ENSO (El-Niño/Southern Oscillation), with more events under La-Niña and less under El-Niño conditions. This may result from stronger equatorial westerly ducts and subtropical jets during La-Niña and weaker during El-Niño. It was previously suggested that the interannual variability of the tropospheric ozone distribution over the central-eastern Pacific Ocean is mainly driven by convective activity related to ENSO and that the barotropic nature of the subtropical intrusions restricts the tracers within the UT. However, our analysis shows that tropospheric ozone concentration and subtropical intrusions account ~65% of the co- variability (below 5 km) in the outer tropical (10-25°N) central Pacific Ocean, particularly during La-Niña conditions. Additionally, we find a two-fold increase and westward shift in the intrusion frequency over the Pacific Ocean, due to the climate regime shift in SST pattern during 1997/98.

Assessing the Influence of Hydrological Connectivity on the Spawning Migration of Atlantic Salmon.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazzaro, G.; Soulsby, C.; Tetzlaff, D.; Botter, G.

2016-12-01

Atlantic salmon is an economically and ecologically important fish species, whose survival is critically impacted by successful spawning in headwater gravel-bed rivers. Streamflow dynamics may have a strong control on spawning because adult fish require sufficiently high discharges to move upriver and reach spawning sites. We present a simple outflux-influx model linking the number of female salmon emigrating (i.e. outflux) and returning (i.e. influx) to a small spawning stream in Scotland (the Girnock Burn). The model explicitly accounts for the inter-annual variability of the hydrologic regime and its influence on hydrological connectivity. Model results are then compared against a unique long-term hydro-ecological dataset that includes annual fluxes of immigrant and emigrant salmon and daily discharges for about 40 years. The satisfactory model results confirm that hydrologic variability contributes significantly to the observed dynamics of salmon returns to the Girnock, with a good correlation between the positive (negative) peaks in the immigration dataset and the exceedance (non-exceedance) probability of a threshold flow (0.3 m3/s). Importantly, model performance deteriorates when the inter-annual variability of flow regime is disregarded. The analysis suggests that the hydrological connectivity represents a key feature of riverine systems, which needs to be carefully considered in settings where flow regimes are altered by water abstractions or diversions.

Wind-driven Ocean Circulation and the Spatial-temporal Variability of Dissolved Inorganic Carbon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, North Eastern Tropical Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chapa, C.; Beier, E.; Durazo, R.; Martin Hernandez-Ayon, J. M.; Alin, S. R.; Lopez-Perez, A.

2016-12-01

The relationship between the surface enrichment of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and wind variability and circulation in the Gulf of Tehuantepec (GT) was examined from satellite images and in situ data from three cruises (June 2010; April and November 2013). Monthly mean wind climatologies (and derived variables), sea surface temperature and sea surface height anomaly fields were analyzed in the GT and part of the NETP. Signal decomposition according to circulation scales (seasonal, inter-annual, mesoscale) was performed using harmonic analysis for the seasonal components, and empirical orthogonal functions for the residuals, applied to satellite sea-level anomaly data. The results show that wind is the main driving force of the variability in the GT. Mesoscale is the variable with the highest percent of local variance (25-75%), due mainly to mesoscale eddies, followed by seasonality (20-55%), and finally the inter-annual signal (10-30%), dominated by ENSO. Mesoscale and seasonality prevailed during the samplings. The changes in circulation led to variations in the concentration of surface DIC ranging between 100 and 300 µmol kg-1 (436 µatm) due to Ekman pumping. The largest enrichment occurred in November 2013 after a strong northerly wind event. However, the predominance of mesoscale events suggests that changes in dissolved inorganic carbon resulting from mesoscale- derived Ekman pumping may become important in the long term and with a larger spatial and temporal coverage. The results suggest that the seasonal cycle of dissolved inorganic carbon may be linked to wind seasonality.

Wind-induced interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and surface salinity on the Northwest Atlantic shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Yun; Ji, Rubao; Fratantoni, Paula S.; Chen, Changsheng; Hare, Jonathan A.; Davis, Cabell S.; Beardsley, Robert C.

2014-04-01

In this study, we examine the importance of regional wind forcing in modulating advective processes and hydrographic properties along the Northwest Atlantic shelf, with a focus on the Nova Scotian Shelf (NSS)-Gulf of Maine (GoM) region. Long-term observational data of alongshore wind stress, sea level slope, and along-shelf flow are analyzed to quantify the relationship between wind forcing and hydrodynamic responses on interannual time scales. Additionally, a simplified momentum balance model is used to examine the underlying mechanisms. Our results show significant correlation among the observed interannual variability of sea level slope, along-shelf flow, and alongshore wind stress in the NSS-GoM region. A mechanism is suggested to elucidate the role of wind in modulating the sea level slope and along-shelf flow: stronger southwesterly (northeastward) winds tend to weaken the prevailing southwestward flow over the shelf, building sea level in the upstream Newfoundland Shelf region, whereas weaker southwesterly winds allow stronger southwestward flow to develop, raising sea level in the GoM region. The wind-induced flow variability can influence the transport of low-salinity water from the Gulf of St. Lawrence to the GoM, explaining interannual variations in surface salinity distributions within the region. Hence, our results offer a viable mechanism, besides the freshening of remote upstream sources, to explain interannual patterns of freshening in the GoM.

Interannual variability of ring formations in the Gulf Stream region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sasaki, Y. N.

2016-02-01

An oceanic ring in the Gulf Stream (GS) region plays important roles in across-jet transport of heat, salt, momentum, and nutrients. This study examines interannual variability of rings shed from the GS jet and their properties using satellite altimeter observations from 1993 to 2013. An objective method is used to capture a ring shedding from the GS jet and track its movement. A spatial distribution of the ring formations in the GS region showed that both cyclonic (cold-core) and anticyclonic (warm-core) rings were most frequently formed around the New England Seamount chain between 62°-65°W, suggesting the importance of the bottom topography on the pinch-off process. These rings moved westward, although about two-third of these rings was reabsorbed by the GS jet. The number of ring formations, especially cyclonic ring formations, indicated prominent fluctuations on interannual to decadal timescales. The annual maximum number of the pinched-off rings is four times larger than the annual minimum number of the rings. These fluctuations of the ring formations were negatively correlated with the strength of the GS. This situation is similar that in the Kuroshio Extension region. The interannual variability of the number of ring formations is also negatively correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index with one-year lag (NAO leads). Interannual variations of the propagation tendency and shape of rings are also discussed.

Designing low-carbon power systems for Great Britain in 2050 that are robust to the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of weather

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zeyringer, Marianne; Price, James; Fais, Birgit; Li, Pei-Hao; Sharp, Ed

2018-05-01

The design of cost-effective power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies requires a modelling approach that simultaneously represents the whole energy system combined with the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of VRE. Here, we soft-link a long-term energy system model, which explores new energy system configurations from years to decades, with a high spatial and temporal resolution power system model that captures VRE variability from hours to years. Applying this methodology to Great Britain for 2050, we find that VRE-focused power system design is highly sensitive to the inter-annual variability of weather and that planning based on a single year can lead to operational inadequacy and failure to meet long-term decarbonization objectives. However, some insights do emerge that are relatively stable to weather-year. Reinforcement of the transmission system consistently leads to a decrease in system costs while electricity storage and flexible generation, needed to integrate VRE into the system, are generally deployed close to demand centres.

Tropical Warm Pool Surface Heat Budgets and Temperature: Contrasts Between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chou, Shu-Hsien; Chou, Ming-Dah; Chan, Pui-King; Lin, Po-Hsiung; Wang, Kung-Hwa

2003-01-01

Seasonal and interannual variations of the net surface heating F(sub NET) and sea surface temperature tendency (T(sub s)/dt) in the tropical eastern Indian and western Pacific Oceans are studied. The surface heat fluxes are derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager and Japanese Geostationary Meteorological Satellite radiance measurements for the period October 1997-September 2000. It is found that the magnitude of solar heating is lager than that of evaporative cooling, but the spatial variation of the latter is significantly large than the former. As a result, the spatial variations of seasonal and interannual variability of F(sub NET), follow closely that of evaporative cooling. Seasonal variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt are significantly correlated, except for the equatorial western Pacific. The high correlation is primarily attributable to high correlation between seasonal cycles of solar heating and T(sub s)/dt. The change of F(sub NET) between 1997-98 El Nino and 1998-99 La Nina is significantly larger in the tropical eastern Indian Ocean than tropical western Pacific. For the former region, the reduced evaporative cooling arising from weakened winds during the El Nino is generally associated with enhanced solar heating due to decreased cloudiness, and thus increases the interannual variability of F(sub NET). For the latter region, the reduced evaporative cooling due to weakened winds is generally associated with but exceeds the reduced solar heating arising from increased cloudiness, and vise versa. Thus the interannual variability of F(sub NET) is reduced due to this offsetting effect. Interannual variations of F(sub NET) and T(sub s)/dt have very low correlation. This is most likely related to interannual variability of ocean dynamics, which includes the variations of solar radiation penetrating through oceanic mixed layer, upwelling of cold thermocline water, Indonesian throughflow for transporting heat from the Pacific to Indian Ocean, and interhemispheric transport in the Indian Ocean.

Interannual Variability in Global Soil Respiration on a 0.5 Degree Grid Cell Basis (1980-1994)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raich, J.W.

2003-09-15

We used a climate-driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil-CO{sub 2} emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil-to-atmosphere CO{sub 2} fluxes. The mean annual global soil-CO{sub 2} flux over this 15-y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3-81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil-CO{sub 2} emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil-CO{sub 2} emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreenmore » broad-leaved forests contributed more soil-derived CO{sub 2} to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type ({approx}30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil-CO{sub 2} emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil-CO{sub 2} production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO{sub 2} concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands, and deserts), interannual variability in soil-CO{sub 2} emissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil-CO{sub 2} fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 PgCY{sup -1} per degree Celsius. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil-CO{sub 2} emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO{sub 2} emissions from soils.« less

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting

PubMed Central

Serreze, Mark C.; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-01-01

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. PMID:26032315

How well do the GCMs/RCMs capture the multi-scale temporal variability of precipitation in the Southwestern United States?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Peng; Gautam, Mahesh R.; Zhu, Jianting; Yu, Zhongbo

2013-02-01

SummaryMulti-scale temporal variability of precipitation has an established relationship with floods and droughts. In this paper, we present the diagnostics on the ability of 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) from Bias Corrected and Downscaled (BCSD) World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) projections and 10 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) that participated in the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) to represent multi-scale temporal variability determined from the observed station data. Four regions (Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Tucson, and Cimarron) in the Southwest United States are selected as they represent four different precipitation regions classified by clustering method. We investigate how storm properties and seasonal, inter-annual, and decadal precipitation variabilities differed between GCMs/RCMs and observed records in these regions. We find that current GCMs/RCMs tend to simulate longer storm duration and lower storm intensity compared to those from observed records. Most GCMs/RCMs fail to produce the high-intensity summer storms caused by local convective heat transport associated with the summer monsoon. Both inter-annual and decadal bands are present in the GCM/RCM-simulated precipitation time series; however, these do not line up to the patterns of large-scale ocean oscillations such as El Nino/La Nina Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Our results show that the studied GCMs/RCMs can capture long-term monthly mean as the examined data is bias-corrected and downscaled, but fail to simulate the multi-scale precipitation variability including flood generating extreme events, which suggests their inadequacy for studies on floods and droughts that are strongly associated with multi-scale temporal precipitation variability.

Inter-annual Variability in Global Suspended Particulate Inorganic Carbon Inventory Using Space-based Measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hopkins, J.; Balch, W. M.; Henson, S.; Poulton, A. J.; Drapeau, D.; Bowler, B.; Lubelczyk, L.

2016-02-01

Coccolithophores, the single celled phytoplankton that produce an outer covering of calcium carbonate coccoliths, are considered to be the greatest contributors to the global oceanic particulate inorganic carbon (PIC) pool. The reflective coccoliths scatter light back out from the ocean surface, enabling PIC concentration to be quantitatively estimated from ocean color satellites. Here we use datasets of AQUA MODIS PIC concentration from 2003-2014 (using the recently-revised PIC algorithm), as well as statistics on coccolithophore vertical distribution derived from cruises throughout the world ocean, to estimate the average global (surface and integrated) PIC standing stock and its associated inter-annual variability. In addition, we divide the global ocean into Longhurst biogeochemical provinces, update the PIC biomass statistics and identify those regions that have the greatest inter-annual variability and thus may exert the greatest influence on global PIC standing stock and the alkalinity pump.

Interannual correlations between sea surface temperature and concentration of chlorophyll pigment off Punta Eugenia, Baja California, during different remote forcing conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrera-Cervantes, H.; Lluch-Cota, S. E.; Lluch-Cota, D. B.; Gutiérrez-de-Velasco, G.

2014-05-01

Interannual correlation between satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and surface chlorophyll a (Chl a) are examined in the coastal upwelling zone off Punta Eugenia on the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula, an area than has been identified as having intense biological productivity and oceanographic transition between midlatitude and tropical ocean conditions. We used empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) analysis separately and jointly on the two fields from 1997 through 2007, a time period dominated by different remote forcing: ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) conditions (weak, moderate and strong) and the largest intrusion of subarctic water reported in the last 50 years. Coastal upwelling index anomalies (CUI) and the multivariate ENSO index (MEI) were used to identify the influence of local (wind stress) and remote (ENSO) forcing over the interannual variability of both variables. The spatial pattern of the individual EOF1 analysis showed the greater variability of SST and Chl a offshore, their corresponding amplitude time series presented the highest peaks during the strong 1997-2000 El Niño-La Niña cycles and during the 2002-2004 period associated to the intrusion of subarctic water. The MEI is well correlated with the individual SST principal component (R ≈ 0.67, P < 0.05) and poorly with the individual Chl a principal component (R = -0.13). The joint EOF1 and the SST-Chl a correlation patterns show the area where both variables covary tightly; a band near the coast where the largest correlations occurred (| R | > 0.4) mainly regulated by ENSO cycles. This was spatially revealed when we calculated the homogeneous correlations for the 1997-1999 El Niño-La Niña period and during the 2002-2004 period, the intrusion of subarctic water period. Both, SST and Chl a showed higher coupling and two distinct physical-biological responses: on average ENSO influence was observed clearly along the coast mostly in SST, while the subarctic water influence, observed offshore and in Bahía Vizcaíno, mostly in Chl a. We found coastal chlorophyll blooms off Punta Eugenia during the 2002-2003 period, an enrichment pattern similar to that observed off the coast of Oregon. These chlorophyll blooms are likely linked to high wind stress anomalies during 2002, mainly at high latitudes. This observation may provide an explanation of why Punta Eugenia is one of the most important biological action centers on the Pacific coast.

Aspects of oceanic forcing of drought over Southwest Asia and the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hoell, Andrew

An exceptionally severe drought affected much of the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes during 1998 -- 2002, with maxima over Southwest Asia and the United States. Previous research has suggested that the oceans played an important role in the hemispheric drought, with oceanic links to tropical Indo-west Pacific Ocean convection highlighted as important for Southwest Asia, and several additional ocean regions suggested as important for the United States. Here, the regional and hemispheric circulation response to tropical Indo-west Pacific Ocean convection is examined for both Southwest Asia and the United States, and the relative importance of individual sea surface temperature areas are explored for United States precipitation. For Southwest Asia, the regional thermodynamic forcing of precipitation and the Northern Hemisphere circulation are related to the leading pattern of Indian Ocean precipitation and its intraseasonal and interannual contributions. Both intraseasonal and interannual timescales are associated with baroclinic Gill-Matsuno-like circulation responses extending over southern Asia, but the interannual component also has a strong equivalent-barotropic circulation. A stationary barotropic Rossby wave extending over North America is associated with interannual tropical Indo-west Pacific Ocean convection and is supported by barotropic ray tracing. For United States regions, historical SST and precipitation links are identified for 1948 -- 1997, and the importance of these links are assessed during the 1998 -- 2002 drought using a linear regression model. The reconstructed precipitation has good correspondence for the Southwest and Southeast United States, but is not able to reproduce precipitation variability over the Northwest and Central United States, especially Texas.

Variability and Predictability of Land-Atmosphere Interactions: Observational and Modeling Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roads, John; Oglesby, Robert; Marshall, Susan; Robertson, Franklin R.

2002-01-01

The overall goal of this project is to increase our understanding of seasonal to interannual variability and predictability of atmosphere-land interactions. The project objectives are to: 1. Document the low frequency variability in land surface features and associated water and energy cycles from general circulation models (GCMs), observations and reanalysis products. 2. Determine what relatively wet and dry years have in common on a region-by-region basis and then examine the physical mechanisms that may account for a significant portion of the variability. 3. Develop GCM experiments to examine the hypothesis that better knowledge of the land surface enhances long range predictability. This investigation is aimed at evaluating and predicting seasonal to interannual variability for selected regions emphasizing the role of land-atmosphere interactions. Of particular interest are the relationships between large, regional and local scales and how they interact to account for seasonal and interannual variability, including extreme events such as droughts and floods. North and South America, including the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment Continental International Project (GEWEX GCIP), MacKenzie, and LBA basins, are currently being emphasized. We plan to ultimately generalize and synthesize to other land regions across the globe, especially those pertinent to other GEWEX projects.

Influence of climate variability, fire and phosphorus limitation on vegetation structure and dynamics of the Amazon-Cerrado border

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ane Dionizio, Emily; Heil Costa, Marcos; de Almeida Castanho, Andrea D.; Ferreira Pires, Gabrielle; Schwantes Marimon, Beatriz; Hur Marimon-Junior, Ben; Lenza, Eddie; Martins Pimenta, Fernando; Yang, Xiaojuan; Jain, Atul K.

2018-02-01

Climate, fire and soil nutrient limitation are important elements that affect vegetation dynamics in areas of the forest-savanna transition. In this paper, we use the dynamic vegetation model INLAND to evaluate the influence of interannual climate variability, fire and phosphorus (P) limitation on Amazon-Cerrado transitional vegetation structure and dynamics. We assess how each environmental factor affects net primary production, leaf area index and aboveground biomass (AGB), and compare the AGB simulations to an observed AGB map. We used two climate data sets (monthly average climate for 1961-1990 and interannual climate variability for 1948-2008), two data sets of total soil P content (one based on regional field measurements and one based on global data), and the INLAND fire module. Our results show that the inclusion of interannual climate variability, P limitation and fire occurrence each contribute to simulating vegetation types that more closely match observations. These effects are spatially heterogeneous and synergistic. In terms of magnitude, the effect of fire is strongest and is the main driver of vegetation changes along the transition. Phosphorus limitation, in turn, has a stronger effect on transitional ecosystem dynamics than interannual climate variability does. Overall, INLAND typically simulates more than 80 % of the AGB variability in the transition zone. However, the AGB in many places is clearly not well simulated, indicating that important soil and physiological factors in the Amazon-Cerrado border region, such as lithology, water table depth, carbon allocation strategies and mortality rates, still need to be included in the model.

Coherence among the Northern Hemisphere land, cryosphere, and ocean responses to natural variability and anthropogenic forcing during the satellite era

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gonsamo, Alemu; Chen, Jing M.; Shindell, Drew T.; Asner, Gregory P.

2016-08-01

A lack of long-term measurements across Earth's biological and physical systems has made observation-based detection and attribution of climate change impacts to anthropogenic forcing and natural variability difficult. Here we explore coherence among land, cryosphere and ocean responses to recent climate change using 3 decades (1980-2012) of observational satellite and field data throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Our results show coherent interannual variability among snow cover, spring phenology, solar radiation, Scandinavian Pattern, and North Atlantic Oscillation. The interannual variability of the atmospheric peak-to-trough CO2 amplitude is mostly impacted by temperature-mediated effects of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific/North American Pattern (PNA), whereas CO2 concentration is affected by Polar Pattern control on sea ice extent dynamics. This is assuming the trend in anthropogenic CO2 emission remains constant, or the interannual changes in the trends are negligible. Our analysis suggests that sea ice decline-related CO2 release may outweigh increased CO2 uptake through longer growing seasons and higher temperatures. The direct effects of variation in solar radiation and leading teleconnections, at least in part via their impacts on temperature, dominate the interannual variability of land, cryosphere and ocean indicators. Our results reveal a coherent long-term changes in multiple physical and biological systems that are consistent with anthropogenic forcing of Earth's climate and inconsistent with natural drivers.

Interannual coherent variability of SSTA and SSHA in the Tropical Indian Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, J. Q.

2012-01-01

Sea surface height derived from the multiple ocean satellite altimeter missions (TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason-1, ERS, Envisat et al.) and sea surface temperature from National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) over 1993-2008 are analyzed to investigate the coherent patterns between the interannual variability of the sea surface and subsurface in the Tropical Indian Ocean, by jointly adopting Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) and Extended Associate Pattern Analysis (EAPA) methods. Results show that there are two dominant coherent modes with the nearly same main period of about 3-5 yr, accounting for 86 % of the total covariance in all, but 90° phase difference between them. The primary pattern is characterized by a east-west dipole mode associated with the mature phase of ENSO, and the second presents a sandwich mode having one sign anomalies along Sumatra-Java coast and northeast of Madagascar, whilst an opposite sign between the two regions. The robust correlations of the sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) with sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the leading modes indicate a strong interaction between them, though the highest correlation coefficient appears with a time lag. And there may be some physical significance with respect to ocean dynamics implied in SSHA variability. Analyzing results show that the features of oceanic waves with basin scale, of which the Rossby wave is prominent, are apparent in the dominant modes. It is further demonstrated from the EAPA that the equatorial eastward Kelvin wave and off-equatorial westward Rossby wave as well as their reflection in the east and west boundary, respectively, are important dynamic mechanisms in the evolution of the two leading coherent patterns. Results of the present study suggest that the upper ocean thermal variations on the timescale of interannual coherent with the ocean dynamics in spatial structure and temporal evolution are mainly attributed to the ocean waves.

ChemCam Passive Sky Spectroscopy at Gale Crater, Mars: Interannual Variability in Dust Aerosol Particle Size, Missing Water Vapor, and the Molecular Oxygen Problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McConnochie, T. H.; Smith, M. D.; Wolff, M. J.; Bender, S. C.; Lemmon, M. T.; Wiens, R. C.; Maurice, S.; Gasnault, O.; Lasue, J.; Meslin, P. Y.; Harri, A. M.; Genzer, M.; Kemppinen, O.; Martinez, G.; DeFlores, L. P.; Blaney, D. L.; Johnson, J. R.; Bell, J. F., III; Trainer, M. G.; Lefèvre, F.; Atreya, S. K.; Mahaffy, P. R.; Wong, M. H.; Franz, H. B.; Guzewich, S.; Villanueva, G. L.; Khayat, A. S.

2017-12-01

The Mars Science Laboratory's (MSL) ChemCam spectrometer measures atmospheric aerosol properties and gas abundances by operating in passive mode and observing scattered sky light at two different elevation angles. We have previously [e. g. 1, 2] presented the methodology and results of these ChemCam Passive Sky observations. Here we will focus on three of the more surprising results that we have obtained: (1) depletion of the column water vapor at Gale Crater relative to that of the surrounding region combined with a strong enhancement of the local column water vapor relative to pre-dawn in-situ measurements, (2) an interannual change in the effective particle size of dust aerosol during the aphelion season, and (3) apparent seasonal and interannual variability in molecular oxygen that differs significantly from the expected behavior of a non-condensable trace gas and differs significantly from global climate model expectations. The ChemCam passive sky water vapor measurements are quite robust but their interpretation depends on the details of measurements as well as on the types of water vapor vertical distributions that can be produced by climate models. We have a high degree of confidence in the dust particle size changes but since aerosol results in general are subject to a variety of potential systematic effects our particle size results would benefit from confirmation by other techniques [c.f. 3]. For the ChemCam passive sky molecular oxygen results we are still working to constrain the uncertainties well enough to confirm the observed surprising behavior, motivated by similarly surprising atmospheric molecular oxygen variability observed by MSL's Sample Analysis at Mars (SAM) instrument [4]. REFERENCES: [1] McConnochie, et al. (2017), Icarus (submitted). [2] McConnochie, et al. (2017), abstract # 3201, The 6th International Workshop on the Mars Atmosphere: Granada, Spain. [3] Vicente-Retortillo et al. (2017), GRL, 44. [4] Trainer et al. (2017), 2017 AGU Fall Meeting.

On the ability of a global atmospheric inversion to constrain variations of CO2 fluxes over Amazonia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Molina, L.; Broquet, G.; Imbach, P.; Chevallier, F.; Poulter, B.; Bonal, D.; Burban, B.; Ramonet, M.; Gatti, L. V.; Wofsy, S. C.; Munger, J. W.; Dlugokencky, E.; Ciais, P.

2015-07-01

The exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the atmosphere and the Amazon basin have global implications for the current and future climate. Here, the global atmospheric inversion system of the Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) service is used to study the seasonal and interannual variations of biogenic CO2 fluxes in Amazonia during the period 2002-2010. The system assimilated surface measurements of atmospheric CO2 mole fractions made at more than 100 sites over the globe into an atmospheric transport model. The present study adds measurements from four surface stations located in tropical South America, a region poorly covered by CO2 observations. The estimates of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) optimized by the inversion are compared to an independent estimate of NEE upscaled from eddy-covariance flux measurements in Amazonia. They are also qualitatively evaluated against reports on the seasonal and interannual variations of the land sink in South America from the scientific literature. We attempt at assessing the impact on NEE of the strong droughts in 2005 and 2010 (due to severe and longer-than-usual dry seasons) and the extreme rainfall conditions registered in 2009. The spatial variations of the seasonal and interannual variability of optimized NEE are also investigated. While the inversion supports the assumption of strong spatial heterogeneity of these variations, the results reveal critical limitations of the coarse-resolution transport model, the surface observation network in South America during the recent years and the present knowledge of modelling uncertainties in South America that prevent our inversion from capturing the seasonal patterns of fluxes across Amazonia. However, some patterns from the inversion seem consistent with the anomaly of moisture conditions in 2009.

Inter-annual variability of carbon fluxes in temperate forest ecosystems: effects of biotic and abiotic factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, M.; Keenan, T. F.; Hufkens, K.; Munger, J. W.; Bohrer, G.; Brzostek, E. R.; Richardson, A. D.

2014-12-01

Carbon dynamics in terrestrial ecosystems are influenced by both abiotic and biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as variation in meteorological conditions, directly drive biophysical and biogeochemical processes; biotic factors, referring to the inherent properties of the ecosystem components, reflect the internal regulating effects including temporal dynamics and memory. The magnitude of the effect of abiotic and biotic factors on forest ecosystem carbon exchange has been suggested to vary at different time scales. In this study, we design and conduct a model-data fusion experiment to investigate the role and relative importance of the biotic and abiotic factors for inter-annual variability of the net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) of temperate deciduous forest ecosystems in the Northeastern US. A process-based model (FöBAAR) is parameterized at four eddy-covariance sites using all available flux and biometric measurements. We conducted a "transplant" modeling experiment, that is, cross- site and parameter simulations with different combinations of site meteorology and parameters. Using wavelet analysis and variance partitioning techniques, analysis of model predictions identifies both spatial variant and spatially invariant parameters. Variability of NEE was primarily modulated by gross primary productivity (GPP), with relative contributions varying from hourly to yearly time scales. The inter-annual variability of GPP and NEE is more regulated by meteorological forcing, but spatial variability in certain model parameters (biotic response) has more substantial effects on the inter-annual variability of ecosystem respiration (Reco) through the effects on carbon pools. Both the biotic and abiotic factors play significant roles in modulating the spatial and temporal variability in terrestrial carbon cycling in the region. Together, our study quantifies the relative importance of both, and calls for better understanding of them to better predict regional CO2 exchanges.

Winter monsoon variability and its impact on aerosol concentrations in East Asia.

PubMed

Jeong, Jaein I; Park, Rokjin J

2017-02-01

We investigate the relationship between winter aerosol concentrations over East Asia and variability in the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) using GEOS-Chem 3-D global chemical transport model simulations and ground-based aerosol concentration data. We find that both observed and modeled surface aerosol concentrations have strong relationships with the intensity of the EAWM over northern (30-50°N, 100-140°E) and southern (20-30°N, 100-140°E) East Asia. In strong winter monsoon years, compared to weak winter monsoon years, lower and higher surface PM 2.5 concentrations by up to 25% are shown over northern and southern East Asia, respectively. Analysis of the simulated results indicates that the southward transport of aerosols is a key process controlling changes in aerosol concentrations over East Asia associated with the EAWM. Variability in the EAWM is found to play a major role in interannual variations in aerosol concentrations; consequently, changes in the EAWM will be important for understanding future changes in wintertime air quality over East Asia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue transmission: a multi-level modeling analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Tzai-Hung; Chen, Tzu-Hsin

2017-04-01

Dengue fever is one of potentially life-threatening mosquito-borne diseases and IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) has confirmed that dengue incidence is sensitive to the critical weather conditions, such as effects of temperature. However, previous literature focused on the effects of monthly or weekly average temperature or accumulative precipitation on dengue incidence. The influence of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variability on dengue outbreak is under investigated. The purpose of the study focuses on measuring the effect of the intra- and inter-annual variations of temperature and precipitation on dengue outbreaks. We developed the indices of intra-annual temperature variability are maximum continuity, intermittent, and accumulation of most suitable temperature (MST) for dengue vectors; and also the indices of intra-annual precipitation variability, including the measure of continuity of wetness or dryness during a pre-epidemic period; and rainfall intensity during an epidemic period. We used multi-level modeling to investigate the intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan from 1998-2015. Our results indicate that accumulation and maximum continuity of MST are more significant than average temperature on dengue outbreaks. The effect of continuity of wetness during the pre-epidemic period is significantly more positive on promoting dengue outbreaks than the rainfall effect during the epidemic period. Meanwhile, extremely high or low rainfall density during an epidemic period do not promote the spread of dengue epidemics. Our study differentiates the effects of intra- and inter-annual meteorological variations on dengue outbreaks and also provides policy implications for further dengue control under the threats of climate change. Keywords: dengue fever, meteorological variations, multi-level model

Spatial-frequency variability of the eddy kinetic energy in the South Atlantic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cecilio, C. M.; Gherardi, D. F.; Souza, R.; Correa-Ramirez, M.

2013-05-01

In the South Atlantic Ocean (SAO) part of the inter-oceanic flow is accomplished through the issuance of anticyclonic eddies by the Agulhas Retroflection. This region, known as Agulhas Leakage (AL), is responsible by the intermittent shedding of eddies in the SAO. The propagation of these eddies into the SAO induces wave processes that allows the interaction between modes of variability of different basins, ranging from high to low frequency. Modelling studies suggests that the Indian-Atlantic inter-ocean exchange is strongly related to the structure of the wind field, in particular with the position of the maximum Southern Hemisphere westerly winds. This study aims to investigate the variations of the large-scale and regional mesoscale eddy field over the SAO using a frequency domain technique, Multiple Taper Method with Singular Value Decomposition (MTM-SVD). The MTM-SVD approach is applied to examine the individual and joint spatiotemporal variability modes of eddy kinetic energy (EKE) and winds stress. The EKE is estimated from geostrophic velocity anomalies data distributed by Aviso and winds stress from winds dataset of Cross-Calibrated Multi-Platform (CCMP) project from PO.DAAC. The impact of the AL in the SAO, was assessed first for the entire region and subsequently applied in the regions of higher mesoscale activity, which are the Brazil-Malvinas Confluence (BMC), the AL, and the Brazilian Current (BC) region. The results of local fractional variance (LFV) of EKE obtained by the MTM-SVD method show a strong significant annual variability in SAO and BC region while in BMC and in AL this frequency is weaker. In the most energetic mesoscale activity regions (BMC and AL) the pattern of variability is distinct. In the BMC region the interannual variability is dominated while in the AL region the most part of variability is associated by high frequency. The joint LFV spectrum of wind and EKE show an out-of-phase relationship between the AL region and BMC region in the interannual frequencies (3 to 5 years). The dominant frequencies can be seen in 1,5 to 3 years period band and in the intrasazonal frequencies, 0,3 to 0,5 years. The results suggests that the EKE variability patterns are different in the SAO wich might be related to the influence of eddies from AL.

Holocene moisture and East Asian summer monsoon evolution in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau recorded by Lake Qinghai and its environs: A review of conflicting proxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, A.; Schimel, D.; Stephens, B. B.; Crisp, D.; Eldering, A.; Gunson, M. R.; Feely, R. A.; Gierach, M. M.; Keeling, R. F.; Sutton, A. J.; Weir, B.

2016-12-01

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important mode of tropical climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales. Correlations between atmospheric CO2 growth rate and ENSO activity are relatively well known but the magnitude of this correlation, the contribution from tropical marine vs. terrestrial flux components, and the causal mechanisms, are poorly constrained in space and time. The launch of NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission in July 2014 was rather timely given the development of strong ENSO conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean in 2015-2016. In this presentation, we will discuss how the high-density observations from OCO-2 provided us with a novel dataset to resolve the linkages between El Niño and atmospheric CO2. Along with information from in situ observations of ΔpCO2 from NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) project and atmospheric CO2 from the Scripps CO2 Program, and other remote-sensing missions, we are able to piece together the time dependent response of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the Tropics. Our findings confirm the hypothesis from studies following the 1997-1998 El Niño event that an early reduction in CO2 outgassing from the tropical Pacific Ocean is later reversed by enhanced net CO2 emissions from the terrestrial biosphere. This implies that a component of the interannual variability (IAV) in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, which has typically been used to constrain the climate sensitivity of tropical land carbon fluxes, is strongly influenced and modified by ocean fluxes during the early phase of the ENSO event. Our analyses shed further light on the understanding of the marine vs. terrestrial partitioning of tropical carbon fluxes during El Niño events, their relative contributions to the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate, and provide clues about the sensitivity of the carbon cycle to climate forcing on interannual time scales.

The 2015-2016 El Niño and the response of the carbon cycle: Findings from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chatterjee, A.; Schimel, D.; Stephens, B. B.; Crisp, D.; Eldering, A.; Gunson, M. R.; Feely, R. A.; Gierach, M. M.; Keeling, R. F.; Sutton, A. J.; Weir, B.

2017-12-01

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important mode of tropical climate variability on interannual to decadal time scales. Correlations between atmospheric CO2 growth rate and ENSO activity are relatively well known but the magnitude of this correlation, the contribution from tropical marine vs. terrestrial flux components, and the causal mechanisms, are poorly constrained in space and time. The launch of NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission in July 2014 was rather timely given the development of strong ENSO conditions over the tropical Pacific Ocean in 2015-2016. In this presentation, we will discuss how the high-density observations from OCO-2 provided us with a novel dataset to resolve the linkages between El Niño and atmospheric CO2. Along with information from in situ observations of ΔpCO2 from NOAA's Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) project and atmospheric CO2 from the Scripps CO2 Program, and other remote-sensing missions, we are able to piece together the time dependent response of atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the Tropics. Our findings confirm the hypothesis from studies following the 1997-1998 El Niño event that an early reduction in CO2 outgassing from the tropical Pacific Ocean is later reversed by enhanced net CO2 emissions from the terrestrial biosphere. This implies that a component of the interannual variability (IAV) in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2, which has typically been used to constrain the climate sensitivity of tropical land carbon fluxes, is strongly influenced and modified by ocean fluxes during the early phase of the ENSO event. Our analyses shed further light on the understanding of the marine vs. terrestrial partitioning of tropical carbon fluxes during El Niño events, their relative contributions to the global atmospheric CO2 growth rate, and provide clues about the sensitivity of the carbon cycle to climate forcing on interannual time scales.

Analysis of the climate variability on Lake Nasser evaporation based on the Bowen ratio energy budget method.

PubMed

Elsawwaf, Mohamed; Willems, Patrick

2012-04-01

Variations in lake evaporation have a significant impact on the energy and water budgets of lakes. Understanding these variations and the role of climate is important for water resources management as well as predicting future changes in lake hydrology as a result of climate change. This study presents a comprehensive, 10-year analysis of seasonal, intraseasonal, and interannual variations in lake evaporation for Lake Nasser in South Egypt. Meteorological and lake temperature measurements were collected from an instrumented platform (Raft floating weather station) at 2 km upstream ofthe Aswan High Dam. In addition to that, radiation measurements at three locations on the lake: Allaqi, Abusembel and Arqeen (respectively at 75, 280 and 350 km upstream of the Aswan High Dam) are used. The data were analyzed over 14-day periods from 1995 to 2004 to provide bi-weekly energy budget estimates of evaporation rate. The mean evaporation rate for lake Nasser over the study period was 5.88 mm day(-1), with a coefficient of variation of 63%. Considerable variability in evaporation rates was found on a wide range of timescales, with seasonal changes having the highest coefficient of variation (32%), followed by the intraseasonal (28%) and interannual timescales (11.6%; for summer means). Intraseasonal changes in evaporation were primarily associated with synoptic weather variations, with high evaporation events tending to occur during incursions of cold, dry air (due, in part, to the thermal lag between air and lake temperatures). Seasonal variations in evaporation were largely driven by temperature and net energy advection, but are out-of-phase with changes in wind speed. On interannual timescales, changes in summer evaporation rates were strongly associated with changes in net energy advection and showed only moderate connections to variations in temperature or humidity.

What Causes the North Sea Level to Rise Faster over the Last Decade ?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karpytchev, Mikhail; Letetrel, Camille

2013-04-01

We combined tide gauge records (PSMSL) and satellite altimetry data (TOPEX/POSEIDON-JASON 1-2) to reconstruct the mean level of the North Sea and the Norwegian Sea Shelf (NS-NSS) over 1950-2012. The reconstructed NS-NSS mean sea level fluctuations reveal a pronounced interannual variability and a strong sea level acceleration since the mid-1990's. In order to understand the causes of this acceleration, the NS-NSS mean sea level was cross-correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation and Arctic Oscillation indices. While the interannual variability of the mean sea level correlates well with the NAO/AO indices, the observed acceleration in the NS-NSS mean level is not linked linearly to the NAO/AO fluctuations. On the other hand, the Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOF) analysis of steric sea level variations in the eastern North Atlantic gives a dominant EOF pattern (55% of variance explained) that varies on a decadal scale very closely to the NS-NSS mean level flcutuations. Also, the amplification in the temporal amplitude of the dominant steric sea level EOF corresponds to the acceleration observed in the NS-NSS mean sea level signal. This suggests that decadal variations in the mean level of the North Sea - the Norwegian Sea Shelf reflect changes in the Subpolar Front currents (Rossby, 1996).

Feeding ecology of pelagic fish species in the Gulf of Riga (Baltic Sea): the importance of changes in the zooplankton community.

PubMed

Lankov, A; Ojaveer, H; Simm, M; Põllupüü, M; Möllmann, C

2010-12-01

The feeding ecology of four pelagic fish species was studied in relation to their prey availability in the Gulf of Riga (Baltic Sea) during the summer 1999-2006. The zooplankton community was dominated by the cladoceran Bosmina longispina, rotifers Keratella cochlearis and K. quadrata and the copepod Eurytemora affinis, with the highest interannual variability in abundance recorded for B. longispina. The last influenced the diet of adult sprat Sprattus sprattus, juvenile smelt Osmerus eperlanus and three-spined stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus as these were strongly selecting for B. longispina. The fish feeding activity did not match the abundance dynamics of their preferred prey, suggesting that fishes may switch to consume other prey in case the preferred diet was limited. A considerable dietary overlap indicated high potential competition between pelagic fish species. While herring Clupea harengus membras and G. aculeatus were relying on very different food, the diets of young O. eperlanus and G. aculeatus were very similar. Interannual variability in zooplankton composition and abundance significantly affected the diet composition of fishes, but those changes were insufficient to exert a consistent influence upon fish feeding activity and total amounts of zooplankton consumed. © 2010 The Authors. Journal of Fish Biology © 2010 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Regional variability in sea ice melt in a changing Arctic.

PubMed

Perovich, Donald K; Richter-Menge, Jacqueline A

2015-07-13

In recent years, the Arctic sea ice cover has undergone a precipitous decline in summer extent. The sea ice mass balance integrates heat and provides insight on atmospheric and oceanic forcing. The amount of surface melt and bottom melt that occurs during the summer melt season was measured at 41 sites over the time period 1957 to 2014. There are large regional and temporal variations in both surface and bottom melting. Combined surface and bottom melt ranged from 16 to 294 cm, with a mean of 101 cm. The mean ice equivalent surface melt was 48 cm and the mean bottom melt was 53 cm. On average, surface melting decreases moving northward from the Beaufort Sea towards the North Pole; however interannual differences in atmospheric forcing can overwhelm the influence of latitude. Substantial increases in bottom melting are a major contributor to ice losses in the Beaufort Sea, due to decreases in ice concentration. In the central Arctic, surface and bottom melting demonstrate interannual variability, but show no strong temporal trends from 2000 to 2014. This suggests that under current conditions, summer melting in the central Arctic is not large enough to completely remove the sea ice cover. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Interannual variability of the Submonthly Wave Patterns over the Western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ko, K. C.

2017-12-01

This study examines the interannual variability of the 5-16 day wave patterns by separating them into active (A4mV) and inactive (I4mV) years on the basis of the 4-month (July-October) variance of a Japan-South China Sea (JSCS) circulation index from 1979 to 2013. The sea surface temperature for the A4mV years exhibited an ENSO pattern but a reversed anomaly pattern was observed in the I4mV years. Composite results indicate that tropical cyclone (TC) tracks are closely linked to the activity of the wave patterns. When the wave patterns were strong with a solid wave structure in the A4mV years, TCs would follow the propagation routes of the cyclonic anomalies of the wave patterns and separated into two types of tracks: straight-moving and recurving. However, in the I4mV years when the wave patterns were weak and poorly organized, the shapes of the cyclonic anomalies became irregular and sporadic. The weakening structure of the wave patterns in the I4mV years would induce the TCs to undergo more scattered routes near Taiwan and east coast of China. Therefore, Taiwan experienced more rainfall in the I4mV years.

On the Interannual Variability and on Trends of the Temperature in the Middle Atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Labitzke, K.; Naujokat, B.

1985-01-01

The new Reference Atmosphere presented here is based on global satellite data and forms a very useful basis for climatological studies. When using such climatologies it is important to be aware of the well known interannual variability which n themiddle atmosphere is particularly large during the northern winters and southern springs. Variability ofthe upper and lower stratospheres is discussed in detail. Areas covered included the polar region and the middile and lower latitudes. Temperature trends, notably the alteration of the global temperature structure by a number of anthropogenically influenced tract gases or the greenhouse effect is discussed.

Interannual Variability of Boreal Summer Rainfall in the Equatorial Atlantic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun; Adler, Robert F.

2007-01-01

Tropical Atlantic rainfall patterns and variation during boreal summer [June-July-August (JJA)] are quantified by means of a 28-year (1979-2006) monthly precipitation dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). Rainfall variability during boreal spring [March-April-May (MAM)] is also examined for comparison in that the most intense interannual variability is usually observed during this season. Comparable variabilities in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) strength and the basin-mean rainfall are found during both seasons. Interannual variations in the ITCZ's latitudinal location during JJA however are generally negligible, in contrasting to intense year-to-year fluctuations during MAM. Sea surface temperature (SST) oscillations along the equatorial region (usually called the Atlantic Nino events) and in the tropical north Atlantic (TNA) are shown to be the two major local factors modulating the tropical Atlantic climate during both seasons. During MAM, both SST modes tend to contribute to the formation of an evident interhemispheric SST gradient, thus inducing anomalous shifting of the ITCZ and then forcing a dipolar structure of rainfall anomalies across the equator primarily in the western basin. During JJA the impacts however are primarily on the ITCZ strength likely due to negligible changes in the ITCZ latitudinal location. The Atlantic Nino reaches its peak in JJA, while much weaker SST anomalies appear north of the equator in JJA than in MAM, showing decaying of the interhemispheric SST mode. SST anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific (the El Nino events) have a strong impact on tropical Atlantic including both the tropical north Atlantic and the equatorial-southern Atlantic. However, anomalous warming in the tropical north Atlantic following positive SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific disappears during JJA because of seasonal changes in the large-scale circulation cutting off the ENSO influence passing through the mid-latitudes. Hence the anomalies associated with the tropical Pacific during JJA are forced through an anomalous Walker circulation primarily working on the western basin, and likely a lagged oceanic response in the equatorial region.

Quantifying the Contribution of Wind-Driven Linear Response to the Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Amoc Volume Transports Across 26.5ºN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shimizu, K.; von Storch, J. S.; Haak, H.; Nakayama, K.; Marotzke, J.

2014-12-01

Surface wind stress is considered to be an important forcing of the seasonal and interannual variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) volume transports. A recent study showed that even linear response to wind forcing captures observed features of the mean seasonal cycle. However, the study did not assess the contribution of wind-driven linear response in realistic conditions against the RAPID/MOCHA array observation or Ocean General Circulation Model (OGCM) simulations, because it applied a linear two-layer model to the Atlantic assuming constant upper layer thickness and density difference across the interface. Here, we quantify the contribution of wind-driven linear response to the seasonal and interannual variability of AMOC transports by comparing wind-driven linear simulations under realistic continuous stratification against the RAPID observation and OCGM (MPI-OM) simulations with 0.4º resolution (TP04) and 0.1º resolution (STORM). All the linear and MPI-OM simulations capture more than 60% of the variance in the observed mean seasonal cycle of the Upper Mid-Ocean (UMO) and Florida Strait (FS) transports, two components of the upper branch of the AMOC. The linear and TP04 simulations also capture 25-40% of the variance in the observed transport time series between Apr 2004 and Oct 2012; the STORM simulation does not capture the observed variance because of the stochastic signal in both datasets. Comparison of half-overlapping 12-month-long segments reveals some periods when the linear and TP04 simulations capture 40-60% of the observed variance, as well as other periods when the simulations capture only 0-20% of the variance. These results show that wind-driven linear response is a major contributor to the seasonal and interannual variability of the UMO and FS transports, and that its contribution varies in an interannual timescale, probably due to the variability of stochastic processes.

Inconsistencies of interannual variability and trends in long-term satellite leaf area index products.

PubMed

Jiang, Chongya; Ryu, Youngryel; Fang, Hongliang; Myneni, Ranga; Claverie, Martin; Zhu, Zaichun

2017-10-01

Understanding the long-term performance of global satellite leaf area index (LAI) products is important for global change research. However, few effort has been devoted to evaluating the long-term time-series consistencies of LAI products. This study compared four long-term LAI products (GLASS, GLOBMAP, LAI3g, and TCDR) in terms of trends, interannual variabilities, and uncertainty variations from 1982 through 2011. This study also used four ancillary LAI products (GEOV1, MERIS, MODIS C5, and MODIS C6) from 2003 through 2011 to help clarify the performances of the four long-term LAI products. In general, there were marked discrepancies between the four long-term LAI products. During the pre-MODIS period (1982-1999), both linear trends and interannual variabilities of global mean LAI followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. The GLASS linear trend and interannual variability were almost 4.5 times those of GLOBMAP. During the overlap period (2003-2011), GLASS and GLOBMAP exhibited a decreasing trend, TCDR no trend, and LAI3g an increasing trend. GEOV1, MERIS, and MODIS C6 also exhibited an increasing trend, but to a much smaller extent than that from LAI3g. During both periods, the R 2 of detrended anomalies between the four long-term LAI products was smaller than 0.4 for most regions. Interannual variabilities of the four long-term LAI products were considerably different over the two periods, and the differences followed the order GLASS>LAI3g>TCDR>GLOBMAP. Uncertainty variations quantified by a collocation error model followed the same order. Our results indicate that the four long-term LAI products were neither intraconsistent over time nor interconsistent with each other. These inconsistencies may be due to NOAA satellite orbit changes and MODIS sensor degradation. Caution should be used in the interpretation of global changes derived from the four long-term LAI products. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Atmospheric Water Balance and Variability in the MERRA-2 Reanalysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Robertson, Franklin R.; Takacs, Lawrence; Molod, Andrea; Mocko, David

2017-01-01

Closing and balancing Earths global water cycle remains a challenge for the climate community. Observations are limited in duration, global coverage, and frequency, and not all water cycle terms are adequately observed. Reanalyses aim to fill the gaps through the assimilation of as many atmospheric water vapor observations as possible. Former generations of reanalyses have demonstrated a number of systematic problems that have limited their use in climate studies, especially regarding low-frequency trends. This study characterizes the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) water cycle relative to contemporary reanalyses and observations. MERRA-2 includes measures intended to minimize the spurious global variations related to in homogeneity in the observational record. The global balance and cycling of water from ocean to land is presented, with special attention given to the water vapor analysis increment and the effects of the changing observing system. While some systematic regional biases can be identified,MERRA-2 produces temporally consistent time series of total column water and transport of water from ocean to land. However, the interannual variability of ocean evaporation is affected by the changing surface-wind-observing system, and precipitation variability is closely related to the evaporation. The surface energy budget is also strongly influenced by the interannual variability of the ocean evaporation. Furthermore, evaluating the relationship of temperature and water vapor indicates that the variations of water vapor with temperature are weaker in satellite data reanalyses, not just MERRA-2, than determined by observations, atmospheric models, or reanalyses without water vapor assimilation.

On the construction, comparison, and variability of airsheds for interpreting semivolatile organic compounds in passively sampled air.

PubMed

Westgate, John N; Wania, Frank

2011-10-15

Air mass origin as determined by back trajectories often aids in explaining some of the short-term variability in the atmospheric concentrations of semivolatile organic contaminants. Airsheds, constructed by amalgamating large numbers of back trajectories, capture average air mass origins over longer time periods and thus have found use in interpreting air concentrations obtained by passive air samplers. To explore some of their key characteristics, airsheds for 54 locations on Earth were constructed and compared for roundness, seasonality, and interannual variability. To avoid the so-called "pole problem" and to simplify the calculation of roundness, a "geodesic grid" was used to bin the back-trajectory end points. Departures from roundness were seen to occur at all latitudes and to correlate significantly with local slope but no strong relationship between latitude and roundness was revealed. Seasonality and interannual variability vary widely enough to imply that static models of transport are not sufficient to describe the proximity of an area to potential sources of contaminants. For interpreting an air measurement an airshed should be generated specifically for the deployment time of the sampler, especially when investigating long-term trends. Samples taken in a single season may not represent the average annual atmosphere, and samples taken in linear, as opposed to round, airsheds may not represent the average atmosphere in the area. Simple methods are proposed to ascertain the significance of an airshed or individual cell. It is recommended that when establishing potential contaminant source regions only end points with departure heights of less than ∼700 m be considered.

Time-Variable Gravity from Satellite Laser-Ranging: The Low-Degree Components and Their Connections with Geophysical/Climatic Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Benjamin F.; Cox, Christopher M.

2004-01-01

Satellite laser-ranging (SLR) has been observing the tiny variations in Earth s global gravity for over 2 decades. The oblateness of the Earth's gravity field, J2, has been observed to undergo a secular decrease of J2 due mainly to the post-glacial rebound of the mantle. Sometime around 1998 this trend reversed quite suddenly. This reversal persisted until 2001, at which point the atmosphere-corrected time series appears to have reversed yet again towards normal. This anomaly signifies a large interannual change in global mass distribution. A number of possible causes have been considered, with oceanic mass redistribution as the leading candidate although other effects, such as glacial melting and core effects may be contributing. In fact, a strong correlation has been found between the J2 variability and the Pacific decadal oscillation. It is relatively more difficult to solve for corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength harmonics from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid mass transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal harmonic components have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport related to climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a monthly time sequence of low-degree component map of the time-variable gravity complete through degree 4, and examine possible geophysical/climatic causes.

A probabilistic approach to quantifying hydrologic thresholds regulating migration of adult Atlantic salmon into spawning streams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lazzaro, G.; Soulsby, C.; Tetzlaff, D.; Botter, G.

2017-03-01

Atlantic salmon is an economically and ecologically important fish species, whose survival is dependent on successful spawning in headwater rivers. Streamflow dynamics often have a strong control on spawning because fish require sufficiently high discharges to move upriver and enter spawning streams. However, these streamflow effects are modulated by biological factors such as the number and the timing of returning fish in relation to the annual spawning window in the fall/winter. In this paper, we develop and apply a novel probabilistic approach to quantify these interactions using a parsimonious outflux-influx model linking the number of female salmon emigrating (i.e., outflux) and returning (i.e., influx) to a spawning stream in Scotland. The model explicitly accounts for the interannual variability of the hydrologic regime and the hydrological connectivity of spawning streams to main rivers. Model results are evaluated against a detailed long-term (40 years) hydroecological data set that includes annual fluxes of salmon, allowing us to explicitly assess the role of discharge variability. The satisfactory model results show quantitatively that hydrologic variability contributes to the observed dynamics of salmon returns, with a good correlation between the positive (negative) peaks in the immigration data set and the exceedance (nonexceedance) probability of a threshold flow (0.3 m3/s). Importantly, model performance deteriorates when the interannual variability of flow regime is disregarded. The analysis suggests that flow thresholds and hydrological connectivity for spawning return represent a quantifiable and predictable feature of salmon rivers, which may be helpful in decision making where flow regimes are altered by water abstractions.

Seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 and climate

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dettinger, M.D.; Ghil, M.

1998-01-01

Interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are almost masked by the seasonal cycle and a strong trend; at the South Pole, the seasonal cycle is small and is almost lost in the trend and interannual variations. Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) issued here to isolate and reconstruct interannual signals at both sites and to visualize recent decadal changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Analysis of the Mauna Loa CO2 series illustrates a hastening of the CO2 seasonal cycle, a close temporal relation between Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature trends and the amplitude of the seasonal CO2 cycle, and tentative ties between the latter and seasonality changes in temperature over the NH continents. Variations of the seasonal CO2 cycle at the South Pole differ from those at Mauna Loa: it is phase changes of the seasonal cycle at the South Pole, rather than amplitude changes, that parallel hemispheric and global temperature trends. The seasonal CO2 cycles exhibit earlier occurrences of the seasons by 7 days at Mauna Loa and 18 days at the South Pole. Interannual CO2 variations are shared at the two locations, appear to respond to tropical processes, and can be decomposed mostly into two periodicities, around (3 years)-1 and (4 years)-1, respectively. Joint SSA analyses of CO2 concentrations and tropical climate indices isolate a shared mode with a quasi-triennial (QT) period in which the CO2 and sea-surface temperature (SST) participation are in phase opposition. The other shared mode has a quasi-quadrennial (QQ) period and CO2 variations are in phase with the corresponding tropical SST variations throughout the tropics. Together these interannual modes exhibit a mean lag between tropical SSTs and CO2 variations of about 6-8 months, with SST leading. Analysis of the QT and QQ signals in global gridded SSTs, joint SSA of CO2 and ??13C isotopic ratios, and SSA of CO2 and NH-land temperatures indicate that the QT variations in CO2 mostly reflect upwelling variations in the eastern tropical Pacific. QQ variations are dominated by the CO2 signature of terrestrial-ecosystem response to global QQ climate variations. Climate variations associated with these two interannual components of tropical variability have very different effects on global climate and, especially, on terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.

The Interplay of Internal and Forced Modes of Hadley Cell Expansion: Lessons from the Global Warming Hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaya, D. J.; Siler, N.; Xie, S. P.; Miller, A. J.

2017-12-01

The poleward branches of the Hadley Cells show a robust shift poleward shift during the satellite era, leading to concerns over the possible encroachment of the globe's subtropical dry zones into currently temperate climates. The extent to which this trend is caused by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remains the subject of considerable debate. In this study, we us a joint EOF method to identify two distinct modes of Hadley Cell variability: (i) an anthropogenically-forced mode, which we identify using a 20-member simulation of the historical climate, and (ii) an internal mode, which identify using a 1000-year pre-industrial control simulation with a global climate model. The forced mode is found to be closely related to the TOA radiative imbalance and exhibits a long-term trend since 1860, while the internal mode is found to be essentially indistinguishable from the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Together these two modes explain an average of 70% of the interannual variability seen in model "edge indices" over the historical period. Since 1980, the superposition of forced and internal modes has resulted in a period of accelerated Hadley Cell expansion and decelerated global warming (i.e., the "hiatus"). A comparison of the change in these modes since 1980 indicates that by 2013 the signal has emerged above the noise of internal variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH), but not in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), with the latter also exhibiting strong zonal asymmetry, particularly in the North Atlantic. Our results highlight the important interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell width change and improve our understanding of the interannual variability and long-term trend seen in observations.

The interplay of internal and forced modes of Hadley Cell expansion: lessons from the global warming hiatus

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Amaya, Dillon J.; Siler, Nicholas; Xie, Shang-Ping; Miller, Arthur J.

2017-09-01

The poleward branches of the Hadley Cells and the edge of the tropics show a robust poleward shift during the satellite era, leading to concerns over the possible encroachment of the globe's subtropical dry zones into currently temperate climates. The extent to which this trend is caused by anthropogenic forcing versus internal variability remains the subject of considerable debate. In this study, we use a Joint EOF method to identify two distinct modes of tropical width variability: (1) an anthropogenically-forced mode, which we identify using a 20-member simulation of the historical climate, and (2) an internal mode, which we identify using a 1000-year pre-industrial control simulation. The forced mode is found to be closely related to the top of the atmosphere radiative imbalance and exhibits a long-term trend since 1860, while the internal mode is essentially indistinguishable from the El Niño Southern Oscillation. Together these two modes explain an average of 70% of the interannual variability seen in model "edge indices" over the historical period. Since 1980, the superposition of forced and internal modes has resulted in a period of accelerated Hadley Cell expansion and decelerated global warming (i.e., the "hiatus"). A comparison of the change in these modes since 1980 indicates that by 2013 the signal has emerged above the noise of internal variability in the Southern Hemisphere, but not in the Northern Hemisphere, with the latter also exhibiting strong zonal asymmetry, particularly in the North Atlantic. Our results highlight the important interplay of internal and forced modes of tropical width change and improve our understanding of the interannual variability and long-term trend seen in observations.

Interannual variability of terrestrial NEP and its attributions to carbon uptake amplitude and period

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Niu, S.

2015-12-01

Earth system exhibits strong interannual variability (IAV) in the global carbon cycle as reflected in the year-to-year anomalies of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. Although various analyses suggested that land ecosystems contribute mostly to the IAV of atmospheric CO2 concentration, processes leading to the IAV in the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle are far from clear and hinder our effort in predicting the IAV of global C cycle. Previous studies on IAV of global C cycle have focused on the regulation of climatic variables in tropical or semiarid areas, but generated inconsistent conclusions. Using long-term eddy-flux measurements of net ecosystem production (NEP), atmospheric CO2 inversion NEP, and the MODIS-derived gross primary production (GPP), we demonstrate that seasonal carbon uptake amplitude (CUA) and period (CUP) are two key processes that control the IAV in the terrestrial C cycle. The two processes together explain 78% of the variations in the IAV in eddy covariance NEP, 70% in global atmospheric inversed NEP, and 53% in the IAV of GPP. Moreover, the three lines of evidence consistently show that variability in CUA is much more important than that of CUP in determining the variation of NEP at most eddy-flux sites, and most grids of global NEP and GPP. Our results suggest that the maximum carbon uptake potential in the peak-growing season is a determinant process of global C cycle internnual variability and carbon uptake period may play less important role than previous expectations. This study uncovers the most parsimonious, proximate processes underlying the IAV in global C cycle of the Earth system. Future research is needed to identify how climate factors affect the IAV in terrestrial C cycle through their influence on CUA and CUP.

Recent Climate Variability in Antarctica from Satellite-derived Temperature Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schneider, David P.; Steig, Eric J.; Comiso, Josefino C.

2004-01-01

Recent Antarctic climate variability on month-to-month to interannual time scales is assessed through joint analysis of surface temperatures from satellite thermal infrared observations (T(sub IR)) and passive microwave brightness temperatures (T(sub B)). Although Tw data are limited to clear-sky conditions and T(sub B) data are a product of the temperature and emissivity of the upper approx. 1m of snow, the two data sets share significant covariance. This covariance is largely explained by three empirical modes, which illustrate the spatial and temporal variability of Antarctic surface temperatures. T(sub B) variations are damped compared to TIR variations, as determined by the period of the temperature forcing and the microwave emission depth; however, microwave emissivity does not vary significantly in time. Comparison of the temperature modes with Southern Hemisphere (SH) 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies demonstrates that Antarctic temperature anomalies are predominantly controlled by the principal patterns of SH atmospheric circulation. The leading surface temperature mode strongly correlates with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) in geopotential height. The second temperature mode reflects the combined influences of the zonal wavenumber-3 and Pacific South American (PSA) patterns in 500-hPa height on month-to-month timescales. ENSO variability projects onto this mode on interannual timescales, but is not by itself a good predictor of Antarctic temperature anomalies. The third temperature mode explains winter warming trends, which may be caused by blocking events, over a large region of the East Antarctic plateau. These results help to place recent climate changes in the context of Antarctica's background climate variability and will aid in the interpretation of ice core paleoclimate records.

Application of Spaceborne Scatterometer for Mapping Freeze-Thaw State in Northern Landscapes as a Measure of Ecological and Hydrological Processes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

McDonald, Kyle; Kimball, John; Zimmermann, Reiner; Way, JoBea; Frolking, Steve; Running, Steve

1994-01-01

Landscape freeze/thaw transitions coincide with marked shifts in albedo, surface energy and mass exchange, and associated snow dynamics. monitoring landscape freeze/thaw dynamics would improve our ability to quantify the interannual variability of boreal hydrology and river runoff/flood dynamics, The annual duration of frost-free period also bounds the period of photosynthetic activity in borel and arctic regions thus affecting the carbon budget and the interannual variability fo regional carbon fluxes.

Quantifying the increasing sensitivity of power systems to climate variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bloomfield, H. C.; Brayshaw, D. J.; Shaffrey, L. C.; Coker, P. J.; Thornton, H. E.

2016-12-01

Large quantities of weather-dependent renewable energy generation are expected in power systems under climate change mitigation policies, yet little attention has been given to the impact of long term climate variability. By combining state-of-the-art multi-decadal meteorological records with a parsimonious representation of a power system, this study characterises the impact of year-to-year climate variability on multiple aspects of the power system of Great Britain (including coal, gas and nuclear generation), demonstrating why multi-decadal approaches are necessary. All aspects of the example system are impacted by inter-annual climate variability, with the impacts being most pronounced for baseload generation. The impacts of inter-annual climate variability increase in a 2025 wind-power scenario, with a 4-fold increase in the inter-annual range of operating hours for baseload such as nuclear. The impacts on peak load and peaking-plant are comparably small. Less than 10 years of power supply and demand data are shown to be insufficient for providing robust power system planning guidance. This suggests renewable integration studies—widely used in policy, investment and system design—should adopt a more robust approach to climate characterisation.

Internal Dynamics and Boundary Forcing Characteristics Associated with Interannual Variability of the Asian Summer Monsoon

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, K.- M.; Kim, K.-M.; Yang, S.

1998-01-01

In this paper, we present a description of the internal dynamics and boundary forcing characteristics of two major components of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM), i.e., the South Asian (SAM) and the Southeast-East Asian monsoon (SEAM). The description is based on a new monsoon-climate paradigm in which the variability of ASM is considered as the outcome of the interplay of a "fast" and an "intermediate" monsoon subsystem, under the influenced of the "slow" varying external forcings. Two sets of regional monsoon indices derived from dynamically consistent rainfall and wind data are used in this study. For SAM, the internal dynamics is represented by that of a "classical" monsoon system where the anomalous circulation is governed by Rossby-wave dynamics, i.e., generation of anomalous vorticity induced by an off-equatorial heat source is balanced by planetary vorticity advection. On the other hand, the internal dynamics of SEAM is characterized by a "hybrid" monsoon system featuring multi-cellular meridional circulation over the East Asian section, extending from the deep tropics to midlatitudes. These meridional-cells link tropical heating to extratropical circulation system via the East Asian jetstream, and are responsible for the characteristic occurrences of zonally oriented anomalous rainfall patterns over East Asian and the subtropical western Pacific. In the extratropical regions, the major upper level vorticity balance is by anomalous vorticity advection and generation by the anomalous divergent circulation. A consequence of this is that compared to SAM, the SEAM is associated with stronger teleconnection patterns to regions outside the ASM. A strong SAM is linked to basin-scale sea surface temperature (SST) fluctuation with significant signal in the equatorial eastern Pacific. During the boreal spring SST warming in the Arabian Sea and the subtropical western Pacific may lead to a strong SAM. For SEAM, interannual variability is tied to SSTA over the Sea of Japan and the South China Sea regions, while the linkage to equatorial basin-scale SSTA is weak at best. A large scale SSTA dipole with warming (cooling) in the subtropical central (eastern) Pacific foreshadows a strong SEAM.

Spatiotemporal variations of the surface Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island derived from satellite altimetry data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qi, Jifeng; Yin, Baoshu; Xu, Zhenhua; Li, Delei

2018-01-01

Spatiotemporal variation of the surface Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island is investigated by quantitatively analyzing 23-year (1993-2015) sea surface Absolute Dynamic Topography data. The annual mean state of the Kuroshio is shown, with a flow width 136 km and surface transport 7.75×104m2/s. The corresponding standard deviations of these are 28 km and 2.14×104m2/s. Results of power spectrum analysis indicate that the primary periods of Kuroshio surface transport east of Taiwan Island are 1 and 2.8 years, respectively. Spatially, the Kuroshio surface transport southeast of Taiwan Island has greater variability than that to its northeast. That transport showed strong seasonality, with a maximum 8.8×104m2/s in summer and minimum 7.5×10 4 m 2 /s in winter, which was mainly caused by local monsoon winds. A linear long-term upward trend of Kuroshio surface transport during 1993-2015 was found, during which the mean, southeast, and northeast of the Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island increased by 0.30×10 4, 0.22×10 4 and 0.36×10 4 m 2 /s, respectively. Correlation and composite analysis show that the Philippines-Taiwan Oscillation (PTO) is important in the interannual variability of the Kuroshio. PTO-induced relative intensity of anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies is the dominant influence on the interannual variability of the Kuroshio east of Taiwan Island.

Precipitation variability as a strong determinant on tree cover across global tropics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xu, X.; Medvigy, D.; Guan, K.; Trugman, A. T.; Good, S. P.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.

2017-12-01

Tropical and subtropical ecosystems support a significant carbon sink and storage and provide various ecosystem services. One challenge for these ecosystems is the changing precipitation variability (PV), which is likely to become more extreme under on-going climate change. However, there is a lack of consensus in the determining role of PV on tropical tree cover, which is a widely-used indicator for ecosystem state and functions in the tropics, as well as the underlying mechanism. Here, we ask whether changes in PV by themselves are likely to lead to changes in tropical tree cover. Using a combination of climate, soil and remotely-sensed tree cover data, we comprehensively assess the effects of PV on tree cover spatial variations at intra-seasonal, seasonal and inter-annual scales. We find that PV contributes 33% -56% to the total explained spatial variation (65% -79%) in tree cover. The contribution of PV depends on mean annual precipitation (MAP) and is highest under intermediate MAP (500 - 1500 mm). In general, tree cover increases with rainy day frequency and wet season length but shows mixed responses to inter-annual precipitation variability. We further use a biophysical model to show that the PV-tree cover relation can be explained by tree-grass water competition. Our results suggest that tropical tree cover can decrease by 3-5% overall and by up to 20% in Amazonia under projected changes in PV at the end of this century.

A worldwide analysis of trends in water-balance evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukkola, A. M.; Prentice, I. C.

2013-10-01

Climate change is expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, with inevitable consequences for freshwater availability to people and ecosystems. But the attribution of recent trends in the terrestrial water balance remains disputed. This study attempts to account statistically for both trends and interannual variability in water-balance evapotranspiration (ET), estimated from the annual observed streamflow in 109 river basins during "water years" 1961-1999 and two gridded precipitation data sets. The basins were chosen based on the availability of streamflow time-series data in the Dai et al. (2009) synthesis. They were divided into water-limited "dry" and energy-limited "wet" basins following the Budyko framework. We investigated the potential roles of precipitation, aerosol-corrected solar radiation, land use change, wind speed, air temperature, and atmospheric CO2. Both trends and variability in ET show strong control by precipitation. There is some additional control of ET trends by vegetation processes, but little evidence for control by other factors. Interannual variability in ET was overwhelmingly dominated by precipitation, which accounted on average for 54-55% of the variation in wet basins (ranging from 0 to 100%) and 94-95% in dry basins (ranging from 69 to 100%). Precipitation accounted for 45-46% of ET trends in wet basins and 80-84% in dry basins. Net atmospheric CO2 effects on transpiration, estimated using the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model, did not contribute to observed trends in ET because declining stomatal conductance was counteracted by slightly but significantly increasing foliage cover.

Long-term fluctuations in circalunar Beach aggregations of the box jellyfish Alatina moseri in Hawaii, with links to environmental variability.

PubMed

Chiaverano, Luciano M; Holland, Brenden S; Crow, Gerald L; Blair, Landy; Yanagihara, Angel A

2013-01-01

The box jellyfish Alatina moseri forms monthly aggregations at Waikiki Beach 8-12 days after each full moon, posing a recurrent hazard to swimmers due to painful stings. We present an analysis of long-term (14 years: Jan 1998- Dec 2011) changes in box jellyfish abundance at Waikiki Beach. We tested the relationship of beach counts to climate and biogeochemical variables over time in the North Pacific Sub-tropical Gyre (NPSG). Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Change-Point Analysis (CPA), and General Regression Models (GRM) were used to characterize patterns in box jellyfish arrival at Waikiki Beach 8-12 days following 173 consecutive full moons. Variation in box jellyfish abundance lacked seasonality, but exhibited dramatic differences among months and among years, and followed an oscillating pattern with significant periods of increase (1998-2001; 2006-2011) and decrease (2001-2006). Of three climatic and 12 biogeochemical variables examined, box jellyfish showed a strong, positive relationship with primary production, >2 mm zooplankton biomass, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. It is clear that that the moon cycle plays a key role in synchronizing timing of the arrival of Alatina moseri medusae to shore. We propose that bottom-up processes, likely initiated by inter-annual regional climatic fluctuations influence primary production, secondary production, and ultimately regulate food availability, and are therefore important in controlling the inter-annual changes in box jellyfish abundance observed at Waikiki Beach.

Long-Term Fluctuations in Circalunar Beach Aggregations of the Box Jellyfish Alatina moseri in Hawaii, with Links to Environmental Variability

PubMed Central

Chiaverano, Luciano M.; Holland, Brenden S.; Crow, Gerald L.; Blair, Landy; Yanagihara, Angel A.

2013-01-01

The box jellyfish Alatina moseri forms monthly aggregations at Waikiki Beach 8–12 days after each full moon, posing a recurrent hazard to swimmers due to painful stings. We present an analysis of long-term (14 years: Jan 1998– Dec 2011) changes in box jellyfish abundance at Waikiki Beach. We tested the relationship of beach counts to climate and biogeochemical variables over time in the North Pacific Sub-tropical Gyre (NPSG). Generalized Additive Models (GAM), Change-Point Analysis (CPA), and General Regression Models (GRM) were used to characterize patterns in box jellyfish arrival at Waikiki Beach 8–12 days following 173 consecutive full moons. Variation in box jellyfish abundance lacked seasonality, but exhibited dramatic differences among months and among years, and followed an oscillating pattern with significant periods of increase (1998–2001; 2006–2011) and decrease (2001–2006). Of three climatic and 12 biogeochemical variables examined, box jellyfish showed a strong, positive relationship with primary production, >2 mm zooplankton biomass, and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) index. It is clear that that the moon cycle plays a key role in synchronizing timing of the arrival of Alatina moseri medusae to shore. We propose that bottom-up processes, likely initiated by inter-annual regional climatic fluctuations influence primary production, secondary production, and ultimately regulate food availability, and are therefore important in controlling the inter-annual changes in box jellyfish abundance observed at Waikiki Beach. PMID:24194856

Distinguishing Southern Africa precipitation response by strength of El Niño events

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pomposi, C.; Funk, C. C.; Shukla, S.; Magadzire, T.

2017-12-01

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a leading mode of interannual precipitation variability and the main source of skill for seasonal climate predictions. Interannual precipitation variability linked to ENSO can have drastic impacts on agricultural systems and food resources in the semi-arid tropics, highlighting the need for increased information regarding ENSO's links to sub-seasonal to seasonal precipitation variations. The present work describes a case study on recent precipitation variability during warm ENSO events (i.e. El Niño) for the austral summer rainy season (December-February) in Southern Africa. Using a blending of observational and model data, it is found that the probability distribution of precipitation varies according to the strength of El Niño events. Strong El Niño events show a much clearer tendency for drying than moderate or weak events, which have smaller absolute magnitude anomalies and larger spatial heterogeneity in the precipitation response. A dynamical exploration of the various precipitation responses is also completed. The techniques utilized can be easily expanded to study likelihood of drought during El Niño for a variety of other regions and also provides information about El Niño strength and its influence on regional teleconnections. Finally, this presentation will describe the channels by which seasonal forecasting information is disseminated in the region and utilized by the Famine Early Warning Systems Network to help mitigate the impacts of potential food insecurity crises.

[Application of regression tree in analyzing the effects of climate factors on NDVI in loess hilly area of Shaanxi Province].

PubMed

Liu, Yang; Lü, Yi-he; Zheng, Hai-feng; Chen, Li-ding

2010-05-01

Based on the 10-day SPOT VEGETATION NDVI data and the daily meteorological data from 1998 to 2007 in Yan' an City, the main meteorological variables affecting the annual and interannual variations of NDVI were determined by using regression tree. It was found that the effects of test meteorological variables on the variability of NDVI differed with seasons and time lags. Temperature and precipitation were the most important meteorological variables affecting the annual variation of NDVI, and the average highest temperature was the most important meteorological variable affecting the inter-annual variation of NDVI. Regression tree was very powerful in determining the key meteorological variables affecting NDVI variation, but could not build quantitative relations between NDVI and meteorological variables, which limited its further and wider application.

Yearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability.

PubMed

Flo, Víctor; Bosch, Jordi; Arnan, Xavier; Primante, Clara; Martín González, Ana M; Barril-Graells, Helena; Rodrigo, Anselm

2018-01-01

Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly dependent on flower context. Our objectives were: 1) To quantify yearly variability in flower density and phenology; 2) To evaluate whether changes in flowering patterns result in significant changes in pollen/nectar composition. We monitored weekly flowering patterns in a Mediterranean scrubland community (23 species) over 8 years. Floral resource availability was estimated based on field measures of pollen and nectar production per flower. We analysed inter-annual variation in flowering phenology (duration and date of peak bloom) and flower production, and inter-annual and monthly variability in flower, pollen and nectar species composition. We also investigated potential phylogenetic effects on inter-annual variability of flowering patterns. We found dramatic variation in yearly flower production both at the species and community levels. There was also substantial variation in flowering phenology. Importantly, yearly fluctuations were far from synchronous across species, and resulted in significant changes in floral resources availability and composition at the community level. Changes were especially pronounced late in the season, at a time when flowers are scarce and pollinator visitation rates are particularly high. We discuss the consequences of our findings for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success in the current scenario of climate change.

Yearly fluctuations of flower landscape in a Mediterranean scrubland: Consequences for floral resource availability

PubMed Central

Primante, Clara; Martín González, Ana M.; Barril-Graells, Helena

2018-01-01

Species flower production and flowering phenology vary from year to year due to extrinsic factors. Inter-annual variability in flowering patterns may have important consequences for attractiveness to pollinators, and ultimately, plant reproductive output. To understand the consequences of flowering pattern variability, a community approach is necessary because pollinator flower choice is highly dependent on flower context. Our objectives were: 1) To quantify yearly variability in flower density and phenology; 2) To evaluate whether changes in flowering patterns result in significant changes in pollen/nectar composition. We monitored weekly flowering patterns in a Mediterranean scrubland community (23 species) over 8 years. Floral resource availability was estimated based on field measures of pollen and nectar production per flower. We analysed inter-annual variation in flowering phenology (duration and date of peak bloom) and flower production, and inter-annual and monthly variability in flower, pollen and nectar species composition. We also investigated potential phylogenetic effects on inter-annual variability of flowering patterns. We found dramatic variation in yearly flower production both at the species and community levels. There was also substantial variation in flowering phenology. Importantly, yearly fluctuations were far from synchronous across species, and resulted in significant changes in floral resources availability and composition at the community level. Changes were especially pronounced late in the season, at a time when flowers are scarce and pollinator visitation rates are particularly high. We discuss the consequences of our findings for pollinator visitation and plant reproductive success in the current scenario of climate change. PMID:29346453

Inter-annual and spatial variability in hillslope runoff and mercury flux during spring snowmelt.

PubMed

Haynes, Kristine M; Mitchell, Carl P J

2012-08-01

Spring snowmelt is an important period of mercury (Hg) export from watersheds. Limited research has investigated the potential effects of climate variability on hydrologic and Hg fluxes during spring snowmelt. The purpose of this research was to assess the potential impacts of inter-annual climate variability on Hg mobility in forested uplands, as well as spatial variability in hillslope hydrology and Hg fluxes. We compared hydrological flows, Hg and solute mobility from three adjacent hillslopes in the S7 watershed of the Marcell Experimental Forest, Minnesota during two very different spring snowmelt periods: one following a winter (2009-2010) with severely diminished snow accumulation (snow water equivalent (SWE) = 48 mm) with an early melt, and a second (2010-2011) with significantly greater winter snow accumulation (SWE = 98 mm) with average to late melt timing. Observed inter-annual differences in total Hg (THg) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) yields were predominantly flow-driven, as the proportion by which solute yields increased was the same as the increase in runoff. Accounting for inter-annual differences in flow, there was no significant difference in THg and DOC export between the two snowmelt periods. The spring 2010 snowmelt highlighted the important contribution of melting soil frost in the timing of a considerable portion of THg exported from the hillslope, accounting for nearly 30% of the THg mobilized. Differences in slope morphology and soil depths to the confining till layer were important in controlling the large observed spatial variability in hydrological flowpaths, transmissivity feedback responses, and Hg flux trends across the adjacent hillslopes.

Quantifying the Interannual Variability in Global Carbon Fluxes from Heterotrophic Respiration using a Testbed and Pulse Response Modeling Approach.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Basile, S.; Wieder, W. R.; Hartman, M. D.; Keppel-Aleks, G.

2017-12-01

The atmospheric growth rate of carbon dioxide (CO2) varies interannually and is strongly correlated with climate factors, including temperature and drought. These climate drivers affect vegetation productivity and the rate of respiration of organic matter to CO2 (heterotrophic respiration). Here we quantified the interannual variability in global carbon fluxes from heterotrophic respiration and their relationship to climate drivers. We used a novel testbed approach to simulate respiration, then simulated the imprint that these modeled heterotrophic fluxes have on atmospheric CO2 using an idealized pulse response model. Two of the testbed formulations (MIMICS and CORPSE) are microbially explicit by incorporation of microbial physiological tradeoffs and microbial activity in soil near fine roots (rhizosphere soils), respectively, while the third model (CASA) uses a CENTURY-like microbially implicit framework. Modeled respiration exhibited subtle differences, with MIMICS showing the largest seasonal amplitude in the Northern Hemisphere and the strongest correlation with global temperature variations. At Mauna Loa (MLO) the simulated seasonal CO2 amplitude in response to global heterotrophic respiration ranged by a factor of 1.5 across the models with the MIMICS and CASA models producing the higher amplitude responses between 1987 and 2006. The seasonal CO2 amplitude at MLO varied by about 5% interannually, with the largest variation in the MIMICS model. In the Northern Hemisphere there was a similar response range in average peak-to-trough seasonal CO2 but all models showed slightly higher amplitude values. Comparatively in the Northern Hemisphere, the average seasonal CO2 amplitude in response to respiration ranged between 30%-41% of the seasonal CO2 amplitude in response to net primary productivity. We expect that exploring the imprint of heterotrophic respiration on atmospheric CO2 from these three different models will improve our understanding of the imprint that heterotrophic respiration imparts on atmospheric data. The aim of this work is to ultimately yield an approach for combining CO2 observations with remote sensing-based observations of terrestrial productivity to produce regional constraints on heterotrophic respiration.

Orbit-related sea level errors for TOPEX altimetry at seasonal to decadal timescales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Esselborn, Saskia; Rudenko, Sergei; Schöne, Tilo

2018-03-01

Interannual to decadal sea level trends are indicators of climate variability and change. A major source of global and regional sea level data is satellite radar altimetry, which relies on precise knowledge of the satellite's orbit. Here, we assess the error budget of the radial orbit component for the TOPEX/Poseidon mission for the period 1993 to 2004 from a set of different orbit solutions. The errors for seasonal, interannual (5-year), and decadal periods are estimated on global and regional scales based on radial orbit differences from three state-of-the-art orbit solutions provided by different research teams: the German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Groupe de Recherche de Géodésie Spatiale (GRGS), and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The global mean sea level error related to orbit uncertainties is of the order of 1 mm (8 % of the global mean sea level variability) with negligible contributions on the annual and decadal timescales. In contrast, the orbit-related error of the interannual trend is 0.1 mm yr-1 (27 % of the corresponding sea level variability) and might hamper the estimation of an acceleration of the global mean sea level rise. For regional scales, the gridded orbit-related error is up to 11 mm, and for about half the ocean the orbit error accounts for at least 10 % of the observed sea level variability. The seasonal orbit error amounts to 10 % of the observed seasonal sea level signal in the Southern Ocean. At interannual and decadal timescales, the orbit-related trend uncertainties reach regionally more than 1 mm yr-1. The interannual trend errors account for 10 % of the observed sea level signal in the tropical Atlantic and the south-eastern Pacific. For decadal scales, the orbit-related trend errors are prominent in a several regions including the South Atlantic, western North Atlantic, central Pacific, South Australian Basin, and the Mediterranean Sea. Based on a set of test orbits calculated at GFZ, the sources of the observed orbit-related errors are further investigated. The main contributors on all timescales are uncertainties in Earth's time-variable gravity field models and on annual to interannual timescales discrepancies of the tracking station subnetworks, i.e. satellite laser ranging (SLR) and Doppler Orbitography and Radiopositioning Integrated by Satellite (DORIS).

The synoptic- and planetary-scale environments associated with significant 1000-hPa geostrophic wind events along the Beaufort Sea coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooke, Melanie

The substantial interannual variability and the observed warming trend of the Beaufort Sea region are important motivators for the study of regional climate and weather there. In an attempt to further our understanding of strong wind events, which can drive sea ice dynamics and storm surges, their characteristic environments at the synoptic and planetary scales are defined and analysed using global reanalysis data. A dependency on an enhanced or suppressed Aleutian low is found. This produces either a strong southeasterly or north-westerly 1000-hPa geostrophic wind event. The characteristic mid-tropospheric patterns for these two distinct event types show similarities to the positive and negative Pacific/North American teleconnection patterns, but their correlations have yet to be assessed.

Using satellite measurements of N2O to remove dynamical variability from HCl measurements

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stolarski, Richard S.; Douglass, Anne R.; Strahan, Susan E.

2018-04-01

Column HCl measurements show deviations from the expected slow decline following the regulation of chlorine-containing compounds by the Montreal Protocol. We use the simultaneous measurements of N2O and HCl by the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) instrument on the Aura satellite to examine this problem. We find that the use of N2O measurements at a specific altitude to represent the impact of dynamical variability on HCl results in a derived linear trend in HCl that is negative (ranging from -2.5 to 5.3 % decade-1) at all altitudes between 68 and 10 hPa. These trends are at or near 2σ statistical significance at all pressure levels between 68 and 10 hPa. This shows that analysis of simultaneous measurements of several constituents is a useful approach to identify small trends from data records that are strongly influenced by dynamical interannual variability.

Population Vulnerability to Biannual Cholera Outbreaks and Associated Macro-Scale Drivers in the Bengal Delta

PubMed Central

Akanda, Ali Shafqat; Jutla, Antarpreet S.; Gute, David M.; Sack, R. Bradley; Alam, Munirul; Huq, Anwar; Colwell, Rita R.; Islam, Shafiqul

2013-01-01

The highly populated floodplains of the Bengal Delta have a long history of endemic and epidemic cholera outbreaks, both coastal and inland. Previous studies have not addressed the spatio-temporal dynamics of population vulnerability related to the influence of underlying large-scale processes. We analyzed spatial and temporal variability of cholera incidence across six surveillance sites in the Bengal Delta and their association with regional hydroclimatic and environmental drivers. More specifically, we use salinity and flood inundation modeling across the vulnerable districts of Bangladesh to test earlier proposed hypotheses on the role of these environmental variables. Our results show strong influence of seasonal and interannual variability in estuarine salinity on spring outbreaks and inland flooding on fall outbreaks. A large segment of the population in the Bengal Delta floodplains remain vulnerable to these biannual cholera transmission mechanisms that provide ecologic and environmental conditions for outbreaks over large geographic regions. PMID:24019441

Simulation of climatology and Interannual Variability of Spring Persistent Rains by Meteorological Research Institute Model: Impacts of different horizontal resolutions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Puxi; Zhou, Tianjun; Zou, Liwei

2016-04-01

The authors evaluated the performance of Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) AGCM3.2 models in the simulations of climatology and interannual variability of the Spring Persistent Rains (SPR) over southeastern China. The possible impacts of different horizontal resolutions were also investigated based on the experiments with three different horizontal resolutions (i.e., 120, 60, and 20km). The model could reasonably reproduce the main rainfall center over southeastern China in boreal spring under the three different resolutions. In comparison with 120 simulation, it revealed that 60km and 20km simulations show the superiority in simulating rainfall centers anchored by the Nanling-Wuyi Mountains, but overestimate rainfall intensity. Water vapor budget diagnosis showed that, the 60km and 20km simulations tended to overestimate the water vapor convergence over southeastern China, which leads to wet biases. In the aspect of interannual variability of SPR, the model could reasonably reproduce the anomalous lower-tropospheric anticyclone in the western North Pacific (WNPAC) and positive precipitation anomalies over southeastern China in El Niño decaying spring. Compared with the 120km resolution, the large positive biases are substantially reduced in the mid and high resolution models which evidently improve the simulation of horizontal moisture advection in El Niño decaying spring. We highlight the importance of developing high resolution climate model as it could potentially improve the climatology and interannual variability of SPR.

Inversion analysis of estimating interannual variability and its uncertainties in biotic and abiotic parameters of a parsimonious physiologically based model after wind disturbance

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toda, M.; Yokozawa, M.; Richardson, A. D.; Kohyama, T.

2011-12-01

The effects of wind disturbance on interannual variability in ecosystem CO2 exchange have been assessed in two forests in northern Japan, i.e., a young, even-aged, monocultured, deciduous forest and an uneven-aged mixed forest of evergreen and deciduous trees, including some over 200 years old using eddy covariance (EC) measurements during 2004-2008. The EC measurements have indicated that photosynthetic recovery of trees after a huge typhoon occurred during early September in 2004 activated annual carbon uptake of both forests due to changes in physiological response of tree leaves during their growth stages. However, little have been resolved about what biotic and abiotic factors regulated interannual variability in heat, water and carbon exchange between an atmosphere and forests. In recent years, an inverse modeling analysis has been utilized as a powerful tool to estimate biotic and abiotic parameters that might affect heat, water and CO2 exchange between the atmosphere and forest of a parsimonious physiologically based model. We conducted the Bayesian inverse model analysis for the model with the EC measurements. The preliminary result showed that the above model-derived NEE values were consistent with observed ones on the hourly basis with optimized parameters by Baysian inversion. In the presentation, we would examine interannual variability in biotic and abiotic parameters related to heat, water and carbon exchange between the atmosphere and forests after disturbance by typhoon.

Study of Tropospheric Ozone and UV Reflectivity Using TOMS Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yung, Yuk L.

2002-01-01

Perhaps the single most important result from the study of Chuang and Yung is that the interannual variability of the Earth's albedo (especially in Spring) on land is dominated by snow/ice, and not by clouds. This interannual variability could be the major driver of changes in the atmosphere and the biosphere. It is plausible that the interannual variability of snow/ice, through interactions with the atmosphere and biosphere, is responsible for the interannual variability of atmospheric CO2. By carefully studying the albedo variations off the Peru coast, we found evidence for indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Based on a detailed analysis of the cloud data obtained by the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (SCCP) in the years 1983-1991, we show that besides the reported 3 % variation in global cloudiness, the global mean cloud optical thickness (MCOT) also has significant variation which is out of phase with that of the global cloudiness. The combined effect of the two opposing variations may be a null effect on the cloud reflectivity. These results are consistent with the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) reflectively measurements. The MCOT variation is further shown to be correlated with both the solar cycle and the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) cycle. Our present analysis cannot distinguish which of the above two provides better correlation, although independent data from the High resolution Infrared Radiation Sounder (HIRS) from 1990 to 1996 favor the solar cycle. Future data are needed to identify the true cause of these changes.

Variations in Upper-Tropospheric Humidity and Convective Processes as Seen from SSM/T-2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.; Fitzjarrald, Dan E.

2007-01-01

Water vapor feedback, particularly involving water vapor in the upper troposphere (UTH), is widely regarded as the process with the most potential to amplify anthropogenic greenhouse forcing. Yet, our ability to quantify observationally water vapor variations in the current climate and the relationships to convective processes remains rather crude. Remote sensing from polar orbiting instruments has played a major role in documenting UTH variability, supplementing highly undersampled and poorly calibrated rawinsonde measurements. Most of our observational understanding of UTH has come from the 6.7 micrometer channel measurements which are subject to cloud contamination uncertainties. In this work we examine UTH variations present in the Special Sensor Microwave Temperature Sounder 2 (SSM/T-2) sensors flying aboard Defense Military Satellite Program (DMSP) polar orbiting satellites during the period 1993 through 2001. We employ data from the the 183.3 +/- 1 GHz channel which is far less sensitive to cirrus than IR methods. Our primary focus is on obtaining more reliable statistics of interannual behavior; i.e. How close to constant RH are interannual variations in T2 UTH over the tropics? How do temperature and moisture variations contribute regionally? The 1997/1998 strong ENS0 warming event and adjacent cool periods provide a strong signal to study, albeit a perturbation of natural climate variability. Modeling the 183.3 GHz channel using reanalysis temperature data, but with climatological water vapor, allows us to infer the separate contribution by water vapor in the observations. In addition, frozen hydrometeors produced by deep convection are also captured in the 150 GHz oxygen channel, providing an opportUnity to relate the incidence of deep convection to water vapor variability. Our results indicate a much larger variation of 183.3 GHz brightness temperatures would be observed were it not for water vapor variations positively correlated with tropical SSTs. Comparisons are made with previous studies using both IR and microwave observations to characterize UTH response to tropical SSTs.

A sensitivity study of the coupled simulation of the Northeast Brazil rainfall variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Misra, Vasubandhu

2007-06-01

Two long-term coupled ocean-land-atmosphere simulations with slightly different parameterization of the diagnostic shallow inversion clouds in the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) of the Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Studies (COLA) coupled climate model are compared for their annual cycle and interannual variability of the northeast Brazil (NEB) rainfall variability. It is seen that the solar insolation affected by the changes to the shallow inversion clouds results in large scale changes to the gradients of the SST and the surface pressure. The latter in turn modulates the surface convergence and the associated Atlantic ITCZ precipitation and the NEB annual rainfall variability. In contrast, the differences in the NEB interannual rainfall variability between the two coupled simulations is attributed to their different remote ENSO forcing.

Hydroclimate variations in central and monsoonal Asia over the past 700 years.

PubMed

Fang, Keyan; Chen, Fahu; Sen, Asok K; Davi, Nicole; Huang, Wei; Li, Jinbao; Seppä, Heikki

2014-01-01

Hydroclimate variations since 1300 in central and monsoonal Asia and their interplay on interannual and interdecadal timescales are investigated using the tree-ring based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions. Both the interannual and interdecadal variations in both regions are closely to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). On interannual timescale, the most robust correlations are observed between PDO and hydroclimate in central Asia. Interannual hydroclimate variations in central Asia are more significant during the warm periods with high solar irradiance, which is likely due to the enhanced variability of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the high-frequency component of PDO, during the warm periods. We observe that the periods with significant interdecadal hydroclimate changes in central Asia often correspond to periods without significant interdecadal variability in monsoonal Asia, particularly before the 19th century. The PDO-hydroclimate relationships appear to be bridged by the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and Tibetan Plateau, a key area of PDO. While, in some periods the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and monsoonal Asia may lead to significant interdecadal hydroclimate variations in monsoonal Asia.

Hydroclimate Variations in Central and Monsoonal Asia over the Past 700 Years

PubMed Central

Fang, Keyan; Chen, Fahu; Sen, Asok K.; Davi, Nicole; Huang, Wei; Li, Jinbao; Seppä, Heikki

2014-01-01

Hydroclimate variations since 1300 in central and monsoonal Asia and their interplay on interannual and interdecadal timescales are investigated using the tree-ring based Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) reconstructions. Both the interannual and interdecadal variations in both regions are closely to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). On interannual timescale, the most robust correlations are observed between PDO and hydroclimate in central Asia. Interannual hydroclimate variations in central Asia are more significant during the warm periods with high solar irradiance, which is likely due to the enhanced variability of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, the high-frequency component of PDO, during the warm periods. We observe that the periods with significant interdecadal hydroclimate changes in central Asia often correspond to periods without significant interdecadal variability in monsoonal Asia, particularly before the 19th century. The PDO-hydroclimate relationships appear to be bridged by the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and Tibetan Plateau, a key area of PDO. While, in some periods the atmospheric circulation between central North Pacific Ocean and monsoonal Asia may lead to significant interdecadal hydroclimate variations in monsoonal Asia. PMID:25119567

Tightening of tropical ascent and high clouds key to precipitation change in a warmer climate

PubMed Central

Su, Hui; Jiang, Jonathan H.; Neelin, J. David; Shen, T. Janice; Zhai, Chengxing; Yue, Qing; Wang, Zhien; Huang, Lei; Choi, Yong-Sang; Stephens, Graeme L.; Yung, Yuk L.

2017-01-01

The change of global-mean precipitation under global warming and interannual variability is predominantly controlled by the change of atmospheric longwave radiative cooling. Here we show that tightening of the ascending branch of the Hadley Circulation coupled with a decrease in tropical high cloud fraction is key in modulating precipitation response to surface warming. The magnitude of high cloud shrinkage is a primary contributor to the intermodel spread in the changes of tropical-mean outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and global-mean precipitation per unit surface warming (dP/dTs) for both interannual variability and global warming. Compared to observations, most Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 models underestimate the rates of interannual tropical-mean dOLR/dTs and global-mean dP/dTs, consistent with the muted tropical high cloud shrinkage. We find that the five models that agree with the observation-based interannual dP/dTs all predict dP/dTs under global warming higher than the ensemble mean dP/dTs from the ∼20 models analysed in this study. PMID:28589940

The impact of inter-annual rainfall variability on food production in the Ganges basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siderius, Christian; Biemans, Hester; van Walsum, Paul; hellegers, Petra; van Ierland, Ekko; Kabat, Pavel

2014-05-01

Rainfall variability is expected to increase in the coming decades as the world warms. Especially in regions already water stressed, a higher rainfall variability will jeopardize food security. Recently, the impact of inter-annual rainfall variability has received increasing attention in regional to global analysis on water availability and food security. But the description of the dynamics behind it is still incomplete in most models. Contemporary land surface and hydrological models used for such analyses describe variability in production primarily as a function of yield, a process driven by biophysical parameters, thereby neglecting yearly variations in cropped area, a process driven largely by management decisions. Agricultural statistics for northern India show that the latter process could explain up to 40% of the observed inter-annual variation in food production in various states. We added a simple dynamic land use decision module to a land surface model (LPJmL) and analyzed to what extent this improved the estimation of variability in food production. Using this improved modelling framework we then assessed if and at which scale rainfall variability affects meeting the food self-sufficiency threshold. Early results for the Ganges Basin indicate that, while on basin level variability in crop production is still relatively low, several districts and states are highly affected (RSTD > 50%). Such insight can contribute to better recommendations on the most effective measures, at the most appropriate scale, to buffer variability in food production.

Interannual Variability of Ammonia Concentrations over the United States: Sources and Implications for Inorganic Particulate Matter

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schiferl, L. D.; Heald, C. L.; Van Damme, M.; Pierre-Francois, C.; Clerbaux, C.

2015-12-01

Modern agricultural practices have greatly increased the emission of ammonia (NH3) to the atmosphere. Recent controls to reduce the emissions of sulfur and nitrogen oxides (SOX and NOX) have increased the importance of understanding the role ammonia plays in the formation of surface fine inorganic particulate matter (PM2.5) in the United States. In this study, we identify the interannual variability in ammonia concentration, explore the sources of this variability and determine their contribution to the variability in surface PM2.5 concentration. Over the summers of 2008-2012, measurements from the Ammonia Monitoring Network (AMoN) and the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) satellite instrument show considerable variability in both surface and column ammonia concentrations (+/- 29% and 28% of the mean), respectively. This observed variability is larger than that simulated by the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model, where meteorology dominates the variability in ammonia and PM2.5 concentrations compared to the changes caused by SOX and NOX reductions. Our initial simulation does not include year-to-year changes in ammonia agricultural emissions. We use county-wide information on fertilizer sales and livestock populations, as well as meteorological variations to account for the interannual variability in agricultural activity and ammonia volatilization. These sources of ammonia emission variability are important for replicating observed variations in ammonia and PM2.5, highlighting how accurate ammonia emissions characterization is central to PM air quality prediction.

Relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation in Singapore during 1980-2013

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Xin; Babovic, Vladan

2017-04-01

Observed studies on inter-annual variation of precipitation provide insight into the response of precipitation to anthropogenic climate change and natural climate variability. Inter-annual variation of precipitation results from the concurrent variations of precipitation frequency and intensity, understanding of the relative importance of frequency and intensity in the variability of precipitation can help fathom its changing properties. Investigation of the long-term changes of precipitation schemes has been extensively carried out in many regions across the world, however, detailed studies of the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inter-annual variation of precipitation are still limited, especially in the tropics. Therefore, this study presents a comprehensive framework to investigate the inter-annual variation of precipitation and the dominance of precipitation frequency and intensity in a tropical urban city-state, Singapore, based on long-term (1980-2013) daily precipitation series from 22 rain gauges. First, an iterative Mann-Kendall trend test method is applied to detect long-term trends in precipitation total, frequency and intensity at both annual and seasonal time scales. Then, the relative importance of precipitation frequency and intensity in inducing the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation total is analyzed using a dominance analysis method based on linear regression. The results show statistically significant upward trends in wet-day precipitation total, frequency and intensity at annual time scale, however, these trends are not evident during the monsoon seasons. The inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation intensity for most of the stations at annual time scale and during the Northeast monsoon season. However, during the Southwest monsoon season, the inter-annual variation of wet-day precipitation is mainly dominated by precipitation frequency. These results have implications for water resources management practices in Singapore.

Surface-Wind Anomalies in North-Atlantic and North Pacific from SSM/I Observations: Influence on Temperature of Adjoining Land Regions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Otterman, Joseph; Atlas, R.; Ingraham, J.; Ardizzone, J.; Starr, D.; Terry, J.

1998-01-01

Surface winds over the oceans are derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) measurements, assigning direction by Variational Analysis Method (VAM). Validations by comparison with other measurements indicate highly-satisfactory data quality. Providing global coverage from 1988, the dataset is a convenient source for surface-wind climatology. In this study, the interannual variability of zonal winds is analyzed concentrating on the westerlies in North Atlantic and North Pacific, above 30 N. Interannual differences in the westerlies exceeding 10 m sec (exp -1) are observed over large regions, often accompanied by changes of the same magnitude in the easterlies below 30 N. We concentrate on February/March, since elevated temperatures, by advancing snow-melt, can produce early spring. The extremely strong westerlies in 1997 observed in these months over North Atlantic (and also North Pacific) apparently contributed to large surface-temperature anomalies in western Europe, on the order of +3 C above the climatic monthly average for England and France. At these latitudes strong positive anomalies extended in a ring around the globe. We formulated an Index of South westerlies for the North Atlantic, which can serve as an indicator for day-by-day advection effects into Europe. In comparing 1997 and 1998 with the previous years, we establish significant correlations with the temperature anomalies (one to five days later, depending on the region, and on the season). This variability of the ocean-surface winds and of the temperature anomalies on land may be related to the El Nino/La Nina oscillations. Such large temperature fluctuations over large areas, whatever the cause, can be regarded as noise in attempts to assess long-term trends in global temperature.

Nine years of mass transport data in the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fraile-Nuez, Eugenio; MachíN, Francisco; VéLez-Belchí, Pedro; López-Laatzen, Federico; Borges, Rafael; BeníTez-Barrios, Verónica; HernáNdez-Guerra, Alonso

2010-09-01

One of the longest current meter time series in the Lanzarote Passage in the eastern boundary of the North Atlantic Subtropical Gyre has been used to determine and quantify the 9-year mean transport, the inter-annual and seasonal mass transport variability for the three water masses present in the area. Results show North Atlantic Central Water (NACW) flowing southward in the upper levels with a mean mass transport of -0.81 ± 1.48 Sv, Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) flowing northward at intermediate levels with a mean transport of +0.09 ± 0.57 Sv and Mediterranean Water (MW) flowing southward in the deep part of the passage with a mean transport of -0.05 ± 0.17 Sv. Harmonic and wavelet analysis show the presence of a seasonal pattern in the passage for the three water masses. A maximum southward transport in winter and spring has been observed for the NACW followed by a minimum in summer and fall. Near zero values during winter and spring are found for AAIW, with a maximum northward value in summer and a negative value in fall, when this water mass reverses its flow. MW has a similar seasonal pattern to NACW. The vertical structure in the Lanzarote Passage can be approximated by four significant oscillatory modes which cumulatively explain 86.4% of the variance. The strong transport fluctuation found at the seasonal and inter-annual timescales demonstrates that the Eastern Boundary Current transport has a strong impact on meridional overturning estimates, thus indicating that to understand Meridional Overturning Circulation variability, these transport estimates at the eastern Atlantic margin are necessary.

Modeling interannual dense shelf water export in the region of the Mertz Glacier Tongue (1992-2007)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cougnon, E. A.; Galton-Fenzi, B. K.; Meijers, A. J. S.; Legrésy, B.

2013-10-01

Ocean observations around the Australian-Antarctic basin show the importance of coastal latent heat polynyas near the Mertz Glacier Tongue (MGT) to the formation of Dense Shelf Water (DSW) and associated Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). Here, we use a regional ocean/ice shelf model to investigate the interannual variability of the export of DSW from the Adélie (west of the MGT) and the Mertz (east of the MGT) depressions from 1992 to 2007. The variability in the model is driven by changes in observed surface heat and salt fluxes. The model simulates an annual mean export of DSW through the Adélie sill of about 0.07 ± 0.06 Sv. From 1992 to 1998, the export of DSW through the Adélie (Mertz) sills peaked at 0.14 Sv (0.29 Sv) during July to November. During periods of mean to strong polynya activity (defined by the surface ocean heat loss), DSW formed in the Adélie depression can spread into the Mertz depression via the cavity under the MGT. An additional simulation, where ocean/ice shelf thermodynamics have been disabled, highlights the fact that models without ocean/ice shelf interaction processes will significantly overestimate rates of DSW export. The melt rates of the MGT are 1.2 ± 0.4 m yr-1 during periods of average to strong polynya activity and can increase to 3.8 ± 1.5 m/yr during periods of sustained weak polynya activity, due to the increased presence of relatively warmer water interacting with the base of the ice shelf. The increased melting of the MGT during a weak polynya state can cause further freshening of the DSW and ultimately limits the production of AABW.

Configuration and Intraseasonal Duration of Interannual Anomalies of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Helfand, H. M.

2002-01-01

Despite the fact that the low-level jet of the southern Great Plains (the GPLLJ) of the U.S. is primarily a nocturnal phenomenon that virtually vanishes during the daylight hours, it is one of the most persistent and stable climatological features of the low-level continental flow during the warm-season months, May through August. We have used significant-level data to validate the skill of the GEOS-1 Data Assimilation System (DAS) in realistically detecting this jet and inferring its structure and evolution. We have then carried out a 15-year reanalysis with the GEOS-1 DAS to determine its climatology and mean diurnal cycle and to study its interannual variability. Interannual anomalies of the meridional flow associated with the GPLLJ are much smaller than the mean diurnal fluctuations, than random intraseasonal anomalies, and than the mean wind itself. There are three maxima of low-level meridional flow variance over the Great Plains and the Gulf of Mexico: a 1.2 m2 s-2 peak over the southeast Texas, to the east and south of the mean velocity peak, a 1.0 m2 s-2 peak over the western Gulf of Mexico, and a .8 m2 s-2 peak over the upper Great Plains (UGP), near the Nebraska/South Dakota border. Each of the three variance maxima corresponds to a spatially coherent, jet-like pattern of low-level flow interannual variability. There are also three dominant modes of interannual variability corresponding to the three variance maxima, but not in a simple one-to-one relationship. Cross-sectional profiles of mean southerly wind over Texas remain relatively stable and recognizable from year to year with only its eastward flank showing significant variability. This variability, however, exhibits a distinct, biennial oscillation during the first six to seven years of the reanalysis period and only then. This intermittent biennial oscillation (IBO, one of the three modes discussed in the previous paragraph) in the lowlevel flow is restricted to the region surrounding eastern Texas and is also evident in the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data set from about 1978 to 1985 or 1986 and again from 1995 to 2000. It is evident as well in surface pressure in both the GEOS-1 and NCEP/NCAR sets. The interannual anomalies do not necessarily persist uniformly throughout an entire season, but can fluctuate from one part of the season to the next. To estimate the characteristic sub-seasonal time scales for coherence of these fluctuations, we have taken the weekly anomaly of low-level wind at each point of the domain from the climatological average for that given point and that given week of the season and computed the covariance of its fluctuations over all weeks and over all years with the weekly climatological anomaly of the meridional wind at each of the three reference points discussed above. The typical duration of a coherent interannual anomaly within a given warm season increases with decreasing latitude from 2 to 3 weeks over the UGP, to 6 to 7 weeks over eastern Texas. Coherence over the western Gulf of Mexico is intermediate between the two with a typical duration of 4 to 5 weeks. There appears to be evidence that the interannual anomalies over Texas the Gulf propagate to the UGP after a week and those over the Gulf propagate there after 2 to 3 weeks. There also appears to be some reverse propagation of interannual anomalies over the UGP to Texas and to the Gulf after a period of about one week. The interannual anomalies in southerly flow over eastern Texas seem to correlate well with interannual anomalies of surface temperature and (negative) ground wetness and over western Texas.

Investigating the role of the land surface in explaining the interannual variation of the net radiation balance over the Western Sahara and sub-Sahara

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smith, Eric A.; Nicholson, Sharon

1987-01-01

The status of the data sets is discussed. Progress was made in both data analysis and modeling areas. The atmospheric and land surface contributions to the net radiation budget over the Sahara-Sahel region is being decoupled. The interannual variability of these two processes was investigated and this variability related to seasonal rainfall fluctuations. A modified Barnes objective analysis scheme was developed which uses an eliptic scan pattern and a 3-pass iteration of the difference fields.

Understanding the Hydrology of Cholera in South Asia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akanda, A. S.; Jutla, A. S.; Islam, S.

2007-12-01

Cholera is an acute waterborne illness caused by the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. The disease remains a major public health issue in several regions of the developing world, mainly in coastal areas around the tropics. Cholera incidences have been historically linked to climate variables and more recently with El Nino-Southern Oscillation. The occurrence of cholera shows bi-annual seasonal peaks and strong inter-annual variability in the Ganges basin region of South Asia. However, the role of hydrologic variables in the seasonal patterns of cholera epidemics is less understood. Preliminary results suggest that a unique combination of increasing water temperature and higher salinity in the coastal zone during the low flow season provide the situation amenable to the first outbreak of cholera in the spring season. Other major factors contributing to the subsequent spread of the disease are sea surface height, monsoon precipitation, and coastal phytoplankton concentration. We will further examine the lag periods between the dominant environmental variables and cholera incidences to understand the seasonal dynamics of cholera in South Asia.

Arctic sea ice trends, variability and implications for seasonal ice forecasting.

PubMed

Serreze, Mark C; Stroeve, Julienne

2015-07-13

September Arctic sea ice extent over the period of satellite observations has a strong downward trend, accompanied by pronounced interannual variability with a detrended 1 year lag autocorrelation of essentially zero. We argue that through a combination of thinning and associated processes related to a warming climate (a stronger albedo feedback, a longer melt season, the lack of especially cold winters) the downward trend itself is steepening. The lack of autocorrelation manifests both the inherent large variability in summer atmospheric circulation patterns and that oceanic heat loss in winter acts as a negative (stabilizing) feedback, albeit insufficient to counter the steepening trend. These findings have implications for seasonal ice forecasting. In particular, while advances in observing sea ice thickness and assimilating thickness into coupled forecast systems have improved forecast skill, there remains an inherent limit to predictability owing to the largely chaotic nature of atmospheric variability. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Low-Level Jets and Their Effects on the South American Summer Climate as Simulated by the NCEP Eta Model(.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vernekar, Anandu D.; Kirtman, Ben P.; Fennessy, Michael J.

2003-01-01

The National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Eta Model (80 km, 38L) is used to simulate the tropical South American summer (January-March) climate for 1983, 1985, 1987, 1989, and 1991 using lateral boundary conditions from the NCEP-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis. Simulations of the lower tropospheric circulation and precipitation are analyzed to study the variability on diurnal, intraseasonal, and interannual timescales. The results are compared with observations and previous studies.The Eta Model produces better regional circulation details, such as low-level jets (LLJs), than does the reanalysis because of its higher resolution, more realistic topography and coastal geometry, and because of its ability to realistically simulate the effects of mesoscale circulation on the time-mean flow. The model detects not only the LLJ east of the Andes Mountains and the LLJ west of northern Cordillera Occidental, which have been reported in previous studies, but it also detects three distinct LLJs just north of the equator embedded in the strong northeasterly trade winds over Colombia, Venezuela, and Guiana. All the LLJs show strong diurnal variability with a nocturnal maximum. The LLJ east of the Andes Mountains brings warm moist air from the Amazon basin to the Gran Chaco region where the jet exits. The moisture convergence in the jet exit region creates favorable conditions for precipitation. Hence, the precipitation over the region also shows strong diurnal variability with a nocturnal maximum. The LLJs just north of the equator bring moisture from the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the western Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Panama to their exit regions over the northern Amazon basin and west coasts of Colombia and Ecuador. The precipitation over these regions also has diurnal variability with a nocturnal maximum. The diurnal variability of precipitation over most of the Tropics has an afternoon rainfall maximum except for regions influenced by LLJs, which have a nocturnal rainfall maximum. The intraseasonal variability of the LLJs is episodic with an approximate period of 20 days. The interannual variability of the LLJs is dominated by the ENSO cycle. The LLJ east of the Andes Mountains is stronger in the warm phase of ENSO than in the cold phase. However, the model has some difficulty simulating the observed relationship between the strength of LLJ and precipitation, but the model succeeds in the case of LLJs just north of the equator. For example, these LLJs are weaker in the warm phase of ENSO than in the cold phase. Hence, during the warm (cold) phase of ENSO, dry (wet) conditions normally occur over the northern part of the Amazon basin, which is the exit region of these LLJs.

Trends and Variability of Global Fire Emissions Due To Historical Anthropogenic Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Daniel S.; Shevliakova, Elena; Malyshev, Sergey; Rabin, Sam

2018-01-01

Globally, fires are a major source of carbon from the terrestrial biosphere to the atmosphere, occurring on a seasonal cycle and with substantial interannual variability. To understand past trends and variability in sources and sinks of terrestrial carbon, we need quantitative estimates of global fire distributions. Here we introduce an updated version of the Fire Including Natural and Agricultural Lands model, version 2 (FINAL.2), modified to include multiday burning and enhanced fire spread rate in forest crowns. We demonstrate that the improved model reproduces the interannual variability and spatial distribution of fire emissions reported in present-day remotely sensed inventories. We use FINAL.2 to simulate historical (post-1700) fires and attribute past fire trends and variability to individual drivers: land use and land cover change, population growth, and lightning variability. Global fire emissions of carbon increase by about 10% between 1700 and 1900, reaching a maximum of 3.4 Pg C yr-1 in the 1910s, followed by a decrease to about 5% below year 1700 levels by 2010. The decrease in emissions from the 1910s to the present day is driven mainly by land use change, with a smaller contribution from increased fire suppression due to increased human population and is largest in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. Interannual variability of global fire emissions is similar in the present day as in the early historical period, but present-day wildfires would be more variable in the absence of land use change.

What can surface measurements of long-lived trace gases tell us about interannual variability in UTLS transport?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ray, E. A.; Daniel, J. S.; Montzka, S. A.; Portmann, R. W.; Yu, P.; Rosenlof, K. H.; Moore, F. L.

2017-12-01

We use surface measurements of a number of long-lived trace gases, including CFC-11, CFC-12 and N2O, and a 3-box model to estimate the interannual variability of bulk stratospheric transport characteristics. Coherent features among the different surface measurements suggest that there have been periods over the last two decades with significant variability in the amount of stratospheric loss transported downward to the troposphere both globally and between the NH and SH. This is especially apparent around the year 2000 and in the recent period since 2013 when surface measurements suggest an overall slowdown of the transport of stratospheric air to the troposphere as well as a shift towards a relatively stronger stratospheric circulation in the SH compared to the NH. We compare these results to stratospheric satellite measurements, residual circulation estimates and global model simulations to check for consistency. The implications of not accounting for interannual variability in stratospheric loss transported to the surface in emission estimates of long-lived trace gases can be significant, including for those gases monitored by the Montreal Protocol and/or of climatic importance.

Investigating the biophysical controls on mass and energy cycling in Southwestern US ecosystems using the New Mexico Elevation Gradient of flux towers.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Krofcheck, D. J.; Morillas, L.; Litvak, M. E.

2014-12-01

Drylands and semi-arid ecosystems cover over 45% of the global landmass. These biomes have been shown to be extremely sensitive to changes in climate, specifically decreases in precipitation and increases in air temperature. Therefore, inter-annual variability in climate has the potential to dramatically impact the carbon budget at regional and global scales. In the Southwestern US, we are in a unique position to investigate these relationships by leveraging eight years of data from the New Mexico Elevation Gradient (NMEG), eight flux towers that span six representative biomes across the semi-arid Southwest. From C4 desert grasslands to subalpine mixed conifer forests, the NMEG flux towers use identical instrumentsand processing, and afford a unique opportunity to explore patterns in biome-specific ecosystem processes and climate sensitivity. Over the last eight years the gradient has experienced climatic variability that span from wet years to an episodic megadrought. Here we report the effects of this extreme inter-annual variability in climate on the ability of semi-arid ecosystems to cycle and store energy and carbon. We also investigated biome-specific patterns of ecosystem light and water use efficiency during a series of wet and dry years, and how these vary in response to air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, evaporative fraction, and precipitation. Our initial results suggest that significant drought reduced the maximum ecosystem assimilation of carbon most at the C4 grasslands, creosote shrublands, juniper savannas, and ponderosa pine forests, with 60%, 50%, 35%, and 50% reduction respectively, relative to a wet year. Ecosystem light use efficiency tends to show the highest maximum values at the low elevation sites as a function of water availability, with the highest annual values consistently at the middle elevation and ponderosa pine sites. Water use efficiency was strongly biome dependent with the middle elevation sites showing the highest efficiencies, and the greatest within year variability at the lower elevation sites, with strong sensitivities to vapor pressure deficit. By quantifying the biome-specific ecosystem processes and functional responses, this network provides valuable insight about how vulnerable this range of semi-arid ecosystems is to future climate scenarios.

Multi-tissue analyses reveal limited inter-annual and seasonal variation in mercury exposure in an Antarctic penguin community.

PubMed

Brasso, Rebecka L; Polito, Michael J; Emslie, Steven D

2014-10-01

Inter-annual variation in tissue mercury concentrations in birds can result from annual changes in the bioavailability of mercury or shifts in dietary composition and/or trophic level. We investigated potential annual variability in mercury dynamics in the Antarctic marine food web using Pygoscelis penguins as biomonitors. Eggshell membrane, chick down, and adult feathers were collected from three species of sympatrically breeding Pygoscelis penguins during the austral summers of 2006/2007-2010/2011. To evaluate the hypothesis that mercury concentrations in penguins exhibit significant inter-annual variation and to determine the potential source of such variation (dietary or environmental), we compared tissue mercury concentrations with trophic levels as indicated by δ(15)N values from all species and tissues. Overall, no inter-annual variation in mercury was observed in adult feathers suggesting that mercury exposure, on an annual scale, was consistent for Pygoscelis penguins. However, when examining tissues that reflected more discrete time periods (chick down and eggshell membrane) relative to adult feathers, we found some evidence of inter-annual variation in mercury exposure during penguins' pre-breeding and chick rearing periods. Evidence of inter-annual variation in penguin trophic level was also limited suggesting that foraging ecology and environmental factors related to the bioavailability of mercury may provide more explanatory power for mercury exposure compared to trophic level alone. Even so, the variable strength of relationships observed between trophic level and tissue mercury concentrations across and within Pygoscelis penguin species suggest that caution is required when selecting appropriate species and tissue combinations for environmental biomonitoring studies in Antarctica.

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO) variability on decadal to paleoclimate time scales

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Linderholm, H. W.; Folland, C. K.; Zhang, P.; Gunnarson, B. E.; Jeong, J. H.; Ren, H.

2017-12-01

The summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO), strongly related to the latitude of the North Atlantic and European summer storm tracks, exerts a considerable influence on European summer climate variability and extremes. Here we extend the period covered by the SNAO from July and August to June, July and August (JJA). As well as marked interannual variability, the JJA SNAO has shown a large inter-decadal change since the 1970s. Decadally averaged, there has been a change from a very positive to a rather negative SNAO phase. This change in SNAO phase is opposite in sign from that expected by a number of climate models under enhanced greenhouse forcing by the late twenty first century. It has led to noticeably wetter summers in North West Europe in the last decade. On interannual to multidecadal timescales, SNAO variability is linked to variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST): observations and models indicate an association between the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) where the cold (warm) phase of the AMO corresponds a positive (negative) phase of the SNAO. Observations also indicate a link with SST in the Gulf Stream region of the North Atlantic where, particularly on decadal time scales, SST warming may favour a more positive phase of the SNAO. Influences of Arctic climate change on North Atlantic and European atmospheric circulation may also exist, particularly reduced sea ice coverage, perhaps favouring the negative phase of the SNAO. A new tree-ring data based JJA SNAO reconstruction extending over the last millennium, as well as climate model output for the same period, enables us to examine the influence of North Atlantic SST and Arctic sea-ice coverage, as well as SNAO impacts on European summer climate, in a long-term, pre-industrial context.

Atmospheric Form Drag Coefficients Over Arctic Sea Ice Using Remotely Sensed Ice Topography Data, Spring 2009-2015

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petty, Alek A.; Tsamados, Michel C.; Kurtz, Nathan T.

2017-01-01

Sea ice topography significantly impacts turbulent energy/momentum exchange, e.g., atmospheric (wind) drag, over Arctic sea ice. Unfortunately, observational estimates of this contribution to atmospheric drag variability are spatially and temporally limited. Here we present new estimates of the neutral atmospheric form drag coefficient over Arctic sea ice in early spring, using high-resolution Airborne Topographic Mapper elevation data from NASA's Operation IceBridge mission. We utilize a new three-dimensional ice topography data set and combine this with an existing parameterization scheme linking surface feature height and spacing to form drag. To be consistent with previous studies investigating form drag, we compare these results with those produced using a new linear profiling topography data set. The form drag coefficient from surface feature variability shows lower values [less than 0.5-1 × 10(exp. -3)] in the Beaufort/Chukchi Seas, compared with higher values [greater than 0.5-1 ×10(exp. -3)] in the more deformed ice regimes of the Central Arctic (north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago), which increase with coastline proximity. The results show moderate interannual variability, including a strong increase in the form drag coefficient from 2013 to 2014/2015 north of the Canadian Archipelago. The form drag coefficient estimates are extrapolated across the Arctic with Advanced Scatterometer satellite radar backscatter data, further highlighting the regional/interannual drag coefficient variability. Finally, we combine the results with existing parameterizations of form drag from floe edges (a function of ice concentration) and skin drag to produce, to our knowledge, the first pan-Arctic estimates of the total neutral atmospheric drag coefficient (in early spring) from 2009 to 2015.

The Role of Global Hydrologic Processes in Interannual and Long-Term Climate Variability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.

1997-01-01

The earth's climate and its variability is linked inextricably with the presence of water on our planet. El Nino / Southern Oscillation-- the major mode of interannual variability-- is characterized by strong perturbations in oceanic evaporation, tropical rainfall, and radiation. On longer time scales, the major feedback mechanism in CO2-induced global warming is actually that due to increased water vapor holding capacity of the atmosphere. The global hydrologic cycle effects on climate are manifested through influence of cloud and water vapor on energy fluxes at the top of atmosphere and at the surface. Surface moisture anomalies retain the "memory" of past precipitation anomalies and subsequently alter the partitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes at the surface. At the top of atmosphere, water vapor and cloud perturbations alter the net amount of radiation that the earth's climate system receives. These pervasive linkages between water, radiation, and surface processes present major complexities for observing and modeling climate variations. Major uncertainties in the observations include vertical structure of clouds and water vapor, surface energy balance, and transport of water and heat by wind fields. Modeling climate variability and change on a physical basis requires accurate by simplified submodels of radiation, cloud formation, radiative exchange, surface biophysics, and oceanic energy flux. In the past, we m safely say that being "data poor' has limited our depth of understanding and impeded model validation and improvement. Beginning with pre-EOS data sets, many of these barriers are being removed. EOS platforms with the suite of measurements dedicated to specific science questions are part of our most cost effective path to improved understanding and predictive capability. This talk will highlight some of the major questions confronting global hydrology and the prospects for significant progress afforded by EOS-era measurements.

Simulated atmospheric response to Gulf Stream variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib; Minobe, Shoshiro

2010-05-01

Though the ocean variability has a distinct low-frequent component on interannual to interdecadal timescales, a better understanding of the main features of air-sea interaction in the extratropical ocean might increase the predictive skill of climate models significantly. An insufficiently understood region in this context are the sharp SST-fronts connected to western boundary currents, which interact with the overlaying atmosphere by forcing low-level winds and evaporation. Recent studies show, that this response extends beyond the marine boundary layer and so might influence also the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In this work a 5 member ensemble of model runs from the AGCM ECHAM5 was analyzed focussing on the atmospheric response to the Gulf Stream. The analyzed experiment covered a time period of 138 years from 1870 to 2007 and was forced by observed SSTs and sea-ice concentration from the HadISST dataset. The experiment was performed at T106 horizontal resolution (~100km) and with 31 vertical levels up to 1 hPa. Simulated seasonal mean circulation indicate a convective response of the atmosphere in the Gulf Stream region similar to observations, with distinct low-level wind convergence, strong upward motion, and low-pressure over the warm SST flank of the Gulf Stream. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) suggests, that up to 25-30% of the variability of the summer precipitation in the Gulf Stream region are connected to the boundary conditions. The link between oceanic and atmospheric variability on seasonal to interannual timescales is investigated with composite and linear regression analysis. Results indicate that increased (decreased) precipitation is associated with stronger (weaker) low-level wind convergence, enhanced (reduced) upward motion, low (high) pressure, and warm (cold) SST anomalies in the region of the Gulf Stream. Currently sensitivity experiments with the same AGCM configuration are in progress.

On the Impact of Sea Level Fingerprints on the Estimation of the Meridional Geostrophic Transport in the Atlantic Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hsu, C. W.; Velicogna, I.

2017-12-01

The mid-ocean geostrophic transport accounts for more than half of the seasonal and inter-annual variabilities in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) based on the in-situ measurement from RAPID MOC/MOCHA array since 2004. Here, we demonstrate that the mid-ocean geostrophic transport estimates derived from ocean bottom pressure (OBP) are affected by the sea level fingerprint (SLF), which is a variation of the equi-geopotential height (relative sea level) due to rapid mass unloading of the entire Earth system and in particular from glaciers and ice sheets. This potential height change, although it alters the OBP, should not be included in the derivation of the mid-ocean geostrophic transport. This "pseudo" geostrophic-transport due to the SLF is in-phase with the seasonal and interannual signal in the upper mid-ocean geostrophic transport. The east-west SLF gradient across the Atlantic basin could be mistaken as a north-south geostrophic transport that increases by 54% of its seasonal variability and by 20% of its inter-annual variability. This study demonstrates for the first time the importance of this pseudo transport in both the annual and interannual signals by comparing the SLF with in-situ observation from RAPID MOC/MOCHA array. The pseudo transport needs to be taken into account if OBP measurements and remote sensing are used to derive mid-ocean geostrophic transport.

The Seasonal and Interannual Variability of the Budgets of N2O and CCl3F

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, Sun; Prather, Michael J.; Rind, David H.

1999-01-01

The 6-year wind archives from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies/Global Climate-Middle Atmosphere Model (GISS/GCMAM) were in- put to the GISS/Harvard/Irvine Chemical Transport Model (G/H/I CTM) to study the seasonal and interannual variability of the budgets and distributions of nitrous oxide (N2O) and trichlorofluoromethane (CCl3F), with the corresponding chemical loss frequencies recycled and boundary conditions kept unchanged from year to year. The effects of ozone feedback and quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) were not included. However, the role of circulation variation in driving the lifetime variability is investigated. It was found that the global loss rates of these tracers are related to the extratropical planetary wave activity, which drives the tropical upward mass flux. For N2O, a semiannual signal in the loss rate variation is associated with the interhemispheric asymmetry in the upper stratospheric wave activity. For CCl3F, the semiannual signal is weaker, associated with the comparatively uniform wave episodes in the lower stratosphere. The loss rates lag behind the wave activity by about 1-2 months. The interannual variation of the GCM generated winds drives the interannual variation of the annually averaged lifetime. The year-to-year variations of the annually averaged lifetimes can be about 3% for N2O and 4% for CCl3F.

Dominance of ENSO-Like Variability in Controlling Tropical Ocean Surface Energy Fluxes in the Satellite Era

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Miller, T. L.; Bosilovich, M. G.

2008-01-01

Ocean surface turbulent and radiative fluxes are critical links in the climate system since they mediate energy exchange between the two fluid systems (ocean and atmosphere) whose combined heat transport determines the basic character of Earth's climate. Moreover, interannual to decadal climate variability depends crucially on the nature of these exchange processes. For example, addressing the question of the degree to which the global hydrologic cycle is changing depends on our ability to observe and model these fluxes accurately. In this work we investigate the interannual to decadal variation of fluxes over the global tropics, especially the tropical oceans. Recent versions of satellite-derived fresh water flux estimates as well as some reanalyses (e.g. products from Remote Sensing Systems, the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, and Global Precipitation Climatology Project) suggest that increases in evaporation and precipitation over the past 20 years exceed those expected on the basis of climate model projected responses to greenhouse gas forcing. At the same time, it is well known that E1 Nino / Southern Oscillation behavior in the Pacific exhibits significant variability at scales longer than interannual. We examine here the degree to which surface fluxes attending these interannual to decadal fluctuations are related to ENSO. We examine consistency between these data sets and explore relationships between SST variations, flux changes and modulation of tropical Walker and Hadley circulations.

Atmospheric effects on earth rotation and polar motion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Salstein, David A.

1988-01-01

The variability in the earth's rotation rate not due to known solid body tides is dominated on time scales of about four years and less by variations in global atmospheric angular momentum (M) as derived from the zonal wind distribution. Among features seen in the length of day record produced by atmospheric forcing are the strong seasonal cycle, quasi-periodic fluctuations around 40-50 days, and an interannual signal forced by a strong Pacific warming event known as the El Nino. Momentum variations associated with these time scales arise in different latitudinal regions. Furthermore, winds in the stratosphere make a particularly important contribution to seasonal variability. Other related topics discussed here are: (1) comparisons of the M series from wind fields produced at different weather centers; (2) the torques that dynamically link the atmosphere and earth; and (3) longer-term nonatmospheric effects that can be seen upon removal of the atmospheric signal.an interestigapplication for climatological purposes is the use of the historical earth rotation series as a proxy for atmospheric wind variability prior to the era of upper-air data. Lastly, results pertaining to the role of atmospheric pressure systems in exciting rapid polar motion are presented.

On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its relationship with El Nino

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperber, K.R., LLNL

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of tropical variability at intraseasonal timescales. It displays substantial interannual variability in intensity which may have important implications for the predictability of the coupled system. The reasons for this interannual variability are not understood. The aim of this paper is to investigate whether the interannual behavior of the MJO is related to tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, particularly El Nino, and hence whether it is predictable. The interannual behavior of the MJO has been diagnosed initially in the 40-year NCEP/ NCAR Reanalysis. The results suggest that prior to the mid-1970s themore » activity of the MJO was consistently lower than during the latter part of the record. This may be related to either inadequacies in the data coverage, particularly over the tropical Indian Ocean prior to the introduction of satellite observations, or to the real effects of a decadal timescale warming in the tropical SSTs. The teleconnection patterns between interannual variations in MJO activity and SST show only a weak, barely significant, influence of El Nino in which the MJO is more active during the cold phase. As well as the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis, a 4-member ensemble of 45 year integrations with the Hadley Centre climate model (HadAM2a), forced by observed SSTs for 1949-93, has been used to investigate the relationship between MJO activity and SST. HadAM2a is known to give a reasonable simulation of the MJO and the extended record provided by this ensemble of integrations allows a more robust investigation of the predictability of MJO activity than was possible with the 40-year NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The results have shown that, for the uncoupled system, with the atmosphere being driven by imposed SSTS, there is no reproducibility for the activity of the MJO from year to year. The interannual behavior of the MJO is not controlled by the phase of El Nino and would appear to be chaotic in character. However, the model results have confirmed the low frequency, decadal timescale variability of MJO activity seen in the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis. The activity of the MJO is consistently lower in all realizations prior to the mid 1970s, suggesting that the MJO may become more active as tropical SSTs become warmer. This result may have implications for the effects of global warming on the coupled tropical atmosphere-ocean system.« less

How will wind and water erosion change in drylands in the future?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okin, G. S.; Sala, O.; Vivoni, E. R.

2017-12-01

Drylands are characterized as much by high spatial and temporal variability as they are by low precipitation. Cover that is patchy at multiple scales allows connectivity for wind and water transport. Vegetation dynamics at interannual scales occurs in the context of community change (including woody encroachment) at decadal scales. Periods of drought alternate with relatively wet periods. Future predictions for the world's drylands are that many will become more arid, but near all will experience greater climate variability. This work explores how future variability will affect transport by wind and water, both of which are crucial elements of biotic-abiotic feedbacks that control community change in drylands. This work is based on long-term observations from the Jornada Long Term Ecological Research (LTER), but with lessons that are applicable elsewhere. We find strong relationships between vegetation community, precipitation and aeolian transport related to changes in connectivity. We further identify strong, scale-dependent relationships between precipitation and runoff. Thus, aeolian transport decreases with increasing annual precipitation and transport by water increases with annual precipitation, with the combined effect that increased variability in annual precipitation is likely to increase both water and wind transport. The consequence of this is that feedbacks associated with community change are likely to strengthen in the future.

Warming of the Global Ocean: Spatial Structure and Water-Mass Trends

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hakkinen, Sirpa; Rhines, Peter B.; Worthen, Denise L.

2016-01-01

This study investigates the multidecadal warming and interannual-to-decadal heat content changes in the upper ocean (0-700 m), focusing on vertical and horizontal patterns of variability. These results support a nearly monotonic warming over much of the World Ocean, with a shift toward Southern Hemisphere warming during the well-observed past decade. This is based on objectively analyzed gridded observational datasets and on a modeled state estimate. Besides the surface warming, a warming climate also has a subsurface effect manifesting as a strong deepening of the midthermocline isopycnals, which can be diagnosed directly from hydrographic data. This deepening appears to be a result of heat entering via subduction and spreading laterally from the high-latitude ventilation regions of subtropical mode waters. The basin-average multidecadal warming mainly expands the subtropical mode water volume, with weak changes in the temperature-salinity (u-S) relationship (known as ''spice'' variability). However, the spice contribution to the heat content can be locally large, for example in Southern Hemisphere. Multidecadal isopycnal sinking has been strongest over the southern basins and weaker elsewhere with the exception of the Gulf Stream/North Atlantic Current/subtropical recirculation gyre. At interannual to decadal time scales, wind-driven sinking and shoaling of density surfaces still dominate ocean heat content changes, while the contribution from temperature changes along density surfaces tends to decrease as time scales shorten.

Variability in rainfall over tropical Australia during summer and relationships with the Bilybara High

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reason, C. J. C.

2018-04-01

Variability in summer rainfall over tropical Australia, defined here as that part of the continent north of 25° S, and its linkages with regional circulation are examined. In particular, relationships with the mid-level anticyclone (termed the Bilybara High) that exists over the northwestern Australia/Timor Sea region between August and April are considered. This High forms to the southwest of the upper-level anticyclone via a balance between the upper-level divergence over the region of tropical precipitation maximum and planetary vorticity advection and moves south and strengthens during the spring and summer. It is shown that variations in the strength and position of the Bilybara High are related to anomalies in precipitation and temperature over large parts of tropical Australia as well as some areas in the south and southeast of the landmass. Some of the interannual variations in the High are related to ENSO, but there are also a number of neutral years with large anomalies in the High and hence in rainfall. On decadal time scales, a strong relationship exists between the leading mode of tropical Australian rainfall and the Bilybara High. On both interannual and decadal scales, the relationships between the High and the regional rainfall involve changes in the monsoonal northwesterlies blowing towards northern Australia, and further south, in the easterly trade winds over the region.

Mapping of the air-sea CO2 flux in the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent seas: Basin-wide distribution and seasonal to interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasunaka, Sayaka; Murata, Akihiko; Watanabe, Eiji; Chierici, Melissa; Fransson, Agneta; van Heuven, Steven; Hoppema, Mario; Ishii, Masao; Johannessen, Truls; Kosugi, Naohiro; Lauvset, Siv K.; Mathis, Jeremy T.; Nishino, Shigeto; Omar, Abdirahman M.; Olsen, Are; Sasano, Daisuke; Takahashi, Taro; Wanninkhof, Rik

2016-09-01

We produced 204 monthly maps of the air-sea CO2 flux in the Arctic north of 60°N, including the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent seas, from January 1997 to December 2013 by using a self-organizing map technique. The partial pressure of CO2 (pCO2) in surface water data were obtained by shipboard underway measurements or calculated from alkalinity and total inorganic carbon of surface water samples. Subsequently, we investigated the basin-wide distribution and seasonal to interannual variability of the CO2 fluxes. The 17-year annual mean CO2 flux shows that all areas of the Arctic Ocean and its adjacent seas were net CO2 sinks. The estimated annual CO2 uptake by the Arctic Ocean was 180 TgC yr-1. The CO2 influx was strongest in winter in the Greenland/Norwegian Seas (>15 mmol m-2 day-1) and the Barents Sea (>12 mmol m-2 day-1) because of strong winds, and strongest in summer in the Chukchi Sea (∼10 mmol m-2 day-1) because of the sea-ice retreat. In recent years, the CO2 uptake has increased in the Greenland/Norwegian Sea and decreased in the southern Barents Sea, owing to increased and decreased air-sea pCO2 differences, respectively.

Uncertainty in Indian Ocean Dipole response to global warming: the role of internal variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hui, Chang; Zheng, Xiao-Tong

2018-01-01

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the leading modes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The response of IOD to global warming is quite uncertain in climate model projections. In this study, the uncertainty in IOD change under global warming, especially that resulting from internal variability, is investigated based on the community earth system model large ensemble (CESM-LE). For the IOD amplitude change, the inter-member uncertainty in CESM-LE is about 50% of the intermodel uncertainty in the phase 5 of the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP5) multimodel ensemble, indicating the important role of internal variability in IOD future projection. In CESM-LE, both the ensemble mean and spread in mean SST warming show a zonal positive IOD-like (pIOD-like) pattern in the TIO. This pIOD-like mean warming regulates ocean-atmospheric feedbacks of the interannual IOD mode, and weakens the skewness of the interannual variability. However, as the changes in oceanic and atmospheric feedbacks counteract each other, the inter-member variability in IOD amplitude change is not correlated with that of the mean state change. Instead, the ensemble spread in IOD amplitude change is correlated with that in ENSO amplitude change in CESM-LE, reflecting the close inter-basin relationship between the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean in this model.

Regional patterns of interannual variability of catchment water balances across the continental U.S.: A Budyko framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carmona, Alejandra M.; Sivapalan, Murugesu; Yaeger, Mary A.; Poveda, Germán.

2014-12-01

Patterns of interannual variability of the annual water balance are explored using data from 190 MOPEX catchments across the continental U.S. This analysis has led to the derivation of a quantitative, dimensionless, Budyko-type framework to characterize the observed interannual variability of annual water balances. The resulting model is expressed in terms of a humidity index that measures the competition between water and energy availability at the annual time scale, and a similarity parameter (α) that captures the net effects of other short-term climate features and local landscape characteristics. This application of the model to the 190 study catchments revealed the existence of space-time symmetry between spatial (between-catchment) variability and general trends in the temporal (between-year) variability of the annual water balances. The MOPEX study catchments were classified into eight similar catchment groups on the basis of magnitudes of the similarity parameter α. Interesting regional trends of α across the continental U.S. were brought out through identification of similarities between the spatial positions of the catchment groups with the mapping of distinctive ecoregions that implicitly take into account common climatic and vegetation characteristics. In this context, this study has introduced a deep sense of similarity that is evident in observed space-time variability of water balances that also reflect the codependence and coevolution of climate and landscape properties.

Interannual evolutions of (sub)mesoscale dynamics in the Bay of Biscay and the English Channel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charria, G.; Vandermeirsch, F.; Theetten, S.; Yelekçi, Ö.; Assassi, C.; Audiffren, N. J.

2016-02-01

In a context of global change, ocean regions as the Bay of the Biscay and the English Channel represent key domains to estimate the local impact on the coasts of interannual evolutions. Indeed, the coastal (considering in this project regions above the continental shelf) and regional (including the continental slope and the abyssal plain) environments are sensitive to the long-term fluctuations driven by the open ocean, the atmosphere and the watersheds. These evolutions can have impacts on the whole ecosystem. To understand and, by extension, forecast evolutions of these ecosystems, we need to go further in the description and the analysis of the past interannual variability over decadal to pluri-decadal periods. This variability can be described at different spatial scales from small (< 1 km) to basin scales (> 100 km). With a focus on smaller scales, the modelled dynamics, using a Coastal Circulation Model on national computing resources (GENCI/CINES), is discussed from interannual simulations (10 to 53 years) with different spatial (4 km to 1 km) and vertical (40 to 100 sigma levels) resolutions compared with available in situ observations. Exploring vorticity and kinetic energy based diagnostics; dynamical patterns are described including the vertical distribution of the mesoscale activity. Despite the lack of deep and spatially distributed observations, present numerical experiments draw a first picture of the 3D mesoscale distribution and its evolution at interannual time scales.

Interannual variability of monthly Southern Ocean sea ice distributions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Parkinson, Claire L.

1992-01-01

The interannual variability of the Southern-Ocean sea-ice distributions was mapped and analyzed using data from Nimbus-5 ESMR and Nimbus-7 SMMR, collected from 1973 to 1987. The set of 12 monthly maps obtained reveals many details on spatial variability that are unobtainable from time series of ice extents. These maps can be used as baseline maps for comparisons against future Southern Ocean sea ice distributions. The maps are supplemented by more detailed maps of the frequency of ice coverage, presented in this paper for one month within each of the four seasons, and by the breakdown of these results to the periods covered individually by each of the two passive-microwave imagers.

Vegetation response to rainfall seasonality and interannual variability in tropical dry forests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, X.; Silva Souza, R. M.; Souza, E.; Antonino, A.; Montenegro, S.; Porporato, A. M.

2015-12-01

We analyzed the response of tropical dry forests to seasonal and interannual rainfall variability, focusing on the caatinga biome in semi-arid in Northeast Brazil. We selected four sites across a gradient of rainfall amount and seasonality and analyzed daily rainfall and biweekly Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the period 2000-2014. The seasonal and interannual rainfall statistics were characterized using recently developed metrics describing duration, location, and intensity of wet season and compared them with those of NDVI time series and modelled soil moisture. A model of NDVI was also developed and forced by different rainfall scenarios (combination amount of rainfall and duration of wet season). The results show that the caatinga tends to have a more stable response characterized by longer and less variable growing seasons (of duration 3.1±0.1 months) compared to the rainfall wet seasons (2.0±0.5 months). Even for more extreme rainfall conditions, the ecosystem shows very little sensitivity to duration of wet season in relation to the amount of rainfall, however the duration of wet season is most evident for wetter sites. This ability of the ecosystem in buffering the interannual variability of rainfall is corroborated by the stability of the centroid location of the growing season compared to the wet season for all sites. The maximal biomass production was observed at intermediate levels of seasonality, suggesting a possible interesting trade-off in the effects of intensity (i.e., amount) and duration of the wet season on vegetation growth.

Challenges in modelling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedigh Marvasti, S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Bidokhti, A. A.; Dunne, J. P.; Ghader, S.

2015-07-01

We examine interannual variability of phytoplankton blooms in northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) shows two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. A pronounced anti-correlation between the AVISO sea surface height anomaly (SSHA) and chlorophyll is found during the wintertime bloom. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is thus dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. These results were compared against the outputs from three different 3-D Earth System models. We show that two coarse (1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ) capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The southern part of the domain is a region with a much sharper thermocline and nutricline relatively close to the surface, in which eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature). We suggest that for the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf.

Some observations on the role of planetary waves in determining the spring time ozone distribution in the Antarctic

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chandra, S.; Mcpeters, R. D.

1986-01-01

Ozone measurements from 1970 to 1984 from the Nimbus 4 backscattered ultraviolet and the Nimbus 7 solar backscattered ultraviolet spectrometers show significant decrease in total ozone only after 1979. The downward trend is most apparent in October south of 70 deg S in the longitude zone 0 to 30 deg W where planetary wave activity is weak. Outside this longitude region, the trend in total ozone is much smaller due to strong interannual variability of wave activity. This paper gives a phenomenological description of ozone depletion in the Antarctic region based on vertical advection and transient planetary waves.

ENSO Related Interannual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel J.

2018-01-01

It has been shown that the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production in the tropics and subtropics more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics. Using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and the Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for ENSO phase, lightning data were averaged into corresponding mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases. These processes were then studied for inter-annual variance and subsequent correlation to ENSO during the study period to best describe the observed lightning deviations from year to year at each location.

Role of the Angola Low in modulating southern African austral summer rainfall and relationships with synoptic and interannual modes of variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crétat, Julien; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieppois, Bastien

2017-04-01

The Angola Low has been suggested in many previous studies to be an important regional feature governing southern African rainfall variability during austral summer, which is, in particular, expressed through modulations of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) impacts on rainfall at the interannual timescale. Here, we analyse a variety of state-of-the-art reanalyses (NCEP2, ERA-Interim and MERRA2) and rainfall data (in situ rain-gauges and satellite-derived products) for: i) identifying the recurrent regimes of the Angola Low (position and intensity) at the daily timescale; ii) diagnosing how they modulate the spatio-temporal variability of austral summer rainfall; and iii) examining their relationships with synoptic convective regimes and ENSO, both at the interannual timescale. The recurrent regimes of the Angola Low are identified over the 1980-2015 period by applying a cluster analysis to daily 700-hPa wind vorticity anomalies over the Angola sector from November to March. The exact number and morphological properties of vorticity regimes vary significantly among the reanalyses, in particular when using the lowest spatial resolution reanalysis (i.e., NCEP2) that leads to detect less diversity, smoothest patterns and weakest intensity across the recurrent regimes. Despite such uncertainties, the regimes describing active Angola Low are quite robust among the reanalyses. Three preferential locations (locked over eastern Angola, shifted few degrees eastward or south-westward), which significantly impact on the rainfall spatial distribution over tropical and subtropical southern Africa, are identified. Independently from its location, Angola Low favours moisture advection from the southwest Indian Ocean and reduces moisture export towards the southeast Atlantic, hence contributing to increase moisture convergence over the subcontinent. Lead/lag correlations with synoptic convective regimes suggest that Angola Low may be a local precursor of tropical-temperate troughs, but this relationship is far from being systematic and quite sensitive to the reanalyses. Finally, the influence of ENSO on the seasonal occurrence of active Angola Low appears to be highly dependent on the choice of the reanalyses. For instance, active Angola Low tends to be independent from ENSO in NCEP2, while it is clearly driven by ENSO, through increasing occurrence during La Niña conditions, in ERA-Interim and MERRA2. Our results point thus toward strong uncertainties in state-of-the-art reanalyses for studying regional circulation features, and their connection with large-scale climate dynamics at the interannual timescale.

Compounding nonlinearities in the climate and wildfire system contribute to high uncertainty in estimates of future burned area in the western United State

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, P.

2015-12-01

Ecological studies are increasingly recognizing the importance of atmospheric vapor-pressure deficit (VPD) as a driver of forest drought stress and disturbance processes such as wildfire. Because of the nonlinear Clausius-Clapeyron relationship between temperature and saturation vapor pressure, small variations in temperature can have large impacts on VPD, and therefore drought, particularly in warm, dry areas and particularly during the warm season. It is also clear that VPD and drought affect forest fire nonlinearly, as incremental drying leads to increasingly large burned areas. Forest fire is also affected by fuel amount and connectivity, which are promoted by vegetation growth in previous years, which is in turn promoted by lack of drought, highlighting the importance of nuances in the sequencing of natural interannual climate variations in modulating the impacts of drought on wildfire. The many factors affecting forest fire, and the nonlinearities embedded within the climate and wildfire systems, cause interannual variability in forest-fire area and frequency to be wildly variable and strongly affected by internal climate variability. In addition, warming over the past century has produced a background increase in forest fire frequency and area in many regions. In this talk I focus on the western United States and will explore whether the relationships between internal climate variability on forest fire area have been amplified by the effects of warming as a result of the compounding nonlinearities described above. I will then explore what this means for future burned area in the western United States and make the case that uncertainties in the future global greenhouse gas emissions trajectory, model projections of mean temperatures, model projections of precipitation, and model projections of natural climate variability translate to very large uncertainties in the effects of future climate variability on forest fire area in the United States and globally.

Interannual variability of the frontal activity in the Southern Hemisphere: relationship with atmospheric circulation and precipitation over southern South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blázquez, Josefina; Solman, Silvina A.

2017-04-01

The interannual variability of the frontal activity over the western Southern Hemisphere and its linkage with the variability of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation over southern South America is studied. The analysis is focused on the austral winter and spring seasons. The frontal activity is represented by an index defined as the product between the horizontal gradient of temperature and the relative vorticity at 850 hPa (FI) and is computed from the ERA Interim and NCEP2 reanalysis. For the two seasons the main mode of variability of FI, as depicted by the first Empirical Orthogonal Function, presents centres of action located in the southern part of the western Southern Hemisphere. This pattern is present in the two reanalysis datasets. The correlation coefficients between the principal component of the leading mode of FI and the two main modes of the 500 hPa geopotential height indicate that both the ENSO-mode and the SAM modulate the leading pattern of FI in winter while during the spring season the ENSO-mode controls the FI variability. The variability of the FI has a robust influence on the interannual variability of precipitation over southern South America and adjacent oceans. Over the continent, it was found that the pattern of precipitation anomalies associated with the variability of the FI depicts significant signals over southeastern South America (SESA), centre and south of Chile for winter and over SESA and southeastern Brazil for spring and agrees with the pattern of the leading mode of precipitation variability over southern South America.

Wave climate simulation for southern region of the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mirzaei, Ali; Tangang, Fredolin; Juneng, Liew; Mustapha, Muzneena Ahmad; Husain, Mohd Lokman; Akhir, Mohd Fadzil

2013-08-01

This study investigates long-term variability and wave characteristic trends in the southern region of the South China Sea (SCS). We implemented the state-of-the art WAVEWATCH III spectral wave model to simulate a 31-year wave hindcast. The simulation results were used to assess the inter-annual variability and long-term changes in the SCS wave climate for the period 1979 to 2009. The model was forced with Climate Forecast System Reanalysis winds and validated against altimeter data and limited available measurements from an Acoustic Wave and Current recorder located offshore of Terengganu, Malaysia. The mean annual significant wave height and peak wave period indicate the occurrence of higher wave heights and wave periods in the central SCS and lower in the Sunda shelf region. Consistent with wind patterns, the wave direction also shows southeasterly (northwesterly) waves during the summer (winter) monsoon. This detailed hindcast demonstrates strong inter-annual variability of wave heights, especially during the winter months in the SCS. Significant wave height correlated negatively with Niño3.4 index during winter, spring and autumn seasons but became positive in the summer monsoon. Such correlations correspond well with surface wind anomalies over the SCS during El Nino events. During El Niño Modoki, the summer time positive correlation extends northeastwards to cover the entire domain. Although significant positive trends were found at 95 % confidence levels during May, July and September, there is significant negative trend in December covering the Sunda shelf region. However, the trend appears to be largely influenced by large El Niño signals.

Detection of deep water formation from remote sensing chlorophyll in the NW Mediterranean Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bernardello, Raffaele; Bahamon, Nixon; Ahumada, Miguel-Angel; Martin, Adrian; Henson, Stephanie

2015-04-01

The Northwestern Mediterranean Sea is one of the few regions in the world where Deep Water Formation (DWF) occurs. During wintertime cold and dry winds that typically occur in strong bursts lasting a few days, are able to erode the near-surface stability over this area, exposing the weakly stratified underwaters and initiate a phase of violent mixing and deep convection. DWF is not a steady-state process that recurs every year. Variations in wind stress and heat flux over the winter can induce a marked interannual variability: during some years the process is specially intense and completely absent during others. The extent of the area over which DWF occurs is also uncertain. The interannual variability of the DWF process is also associated to the variability in the seasonal phytoplankton dynamics over the area. The extent of the vertical mixing set the total amount of nutrients available for the phytoplankton during the following spring bloom. However, before the bloom, when deep convection is still active, surface chlorophyll (an index for phytoplankton biomass) is vertically diluted showing low surface concentration. The occurrence of these patches of anomalously low chlorophyll concentration can, in principle, be associated to the presence of active deep convection. In this study we investigate the possibility of exploiting such association in order to quantify the duration of deep convection and the extent of the area over which it occurs. These goals will be achieved through the analysis of remote sensing chlorophyll data and in-situ Argo-floats profiles.

A worldwide analysis of trends in water-balance evapotranspiration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ukkola, A. M.; Prentice, I. C.

2013-05-01

Climate change is expected to alter the global hydrological cycle, with inevitable consequences for freshwater availability to people and ecosystems. But the attribution of recent trends in the terrestrial water balance remains disputed. This study attempts to account statistically for both trends and interannual variability in water-balance evapotranspiration (ET), estimated from the annual observed streamflow in 109 river basins during "water years" 1961-1999 and two gridded precipitation datasets. The basins were chosen based on the availability of streamflow time-series data in the Dai et al. (2009) synthesis. They were divided into water-limited "dry" and energy-limited "wet" basins following the Budyko framework. We investigated the potential roles of precipitation, aerosol-corrected solar radiation, land-use change, wind speed, air temperature, and atmospheric CO2. Both trends and variability in ET show strong control by precipitation. There is some additional control of ET trends by vegetation processes, but little evidence for control by other factors. Interannual variability in ET was overwhelmingly dominated by precipitation, which accounted on average for 52-54% of the variation in wet basins (ranging from 0 to 99%) and 84-85% in dry basins (ranging from 13 to 100%). Precipitation accounted for 39-42% of ET trends in wet basins and 69-79% in dry basins. Cropland expansion increased ET in dry basins. Net atmospheric CO2 effects on transpiration, estimated using the Land-surface Processes and eXchanges (LPX) model, did not contribute to observed trends in ET because declining stomatal conductance was counteracted by slightly but significantly increasing foliage cover.

On the dynamic forcing of short-term climate fluctuations by feedback mechanisms

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Reiter, E.R.

1979-09-01

The energies involved in the general circulation of the atmosphere, especially the zonal available potential energy, show considerable interannual variability, suggesting the presence of various internal feedback mechanisms in the ocean-atmosphere system. Sea-surface temperature (SST) variations appear to have some effect on the hydrological cycle. The possible existence of feedback mechanisms between ocean and atmosphere seem to be evident in some of the data from the North Pacific and North Atlantic. One of these proposed mechanisms involves the variation in the convergence between the North and South Pacific trade-wind systems and is strongly reflected in rainfall variability within the drymore » region of the equatorial Pacific. Similar variations appear in low-latitude SST anomalies. The convergence between the two trade-wind systems in the Atlantic region also undergoes marked interannual variations. This quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in trade-wind convergence over the Atlantic appears to be tied to the global QBO of equatorial stratospheric winds and to regional rainfall regimes in the dry region of northeastern Brazil. A variability pattern of SST's with a QBO has been detected off the coast of Senegal, in the Gulf of Guinea and even in the Gulf Stream as it leaves the North American continental shelf. Possible physical connections between some of these QBO's are pointed out by a hypothetical feedback model. It is also suggested that interaction of a QBO with the annual cycle may lead to beating frequencies resembling climatic trends of a duration of several years.« less

Land-atmosphere-ocean interactions in the southeastern Atlantic: interannual variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Xiaoming; Vizy, Edward K.; Cook, Kerry H.

2018-02-01

Land-atmosphere-ocean interactions in the southeastern South Atlantic and their connections to interannual variability are examined using a regional climate model coupled with an intermediate-level ocean model. In austral summer, zonal displacements of the South Atlantic subtropical high (SASH) can induce variations of mixed-layer currents in the Benguela upwelling region through surface wind stress curl anomalies near the Namibian coast, and an eastward shifted SASH is related to the first Pacific-South American mode. When the SASH is meridionally displaced, mixed layer vertically-integrated Ekman transport anomalies are mainly a response to the change of alongshore surface wind stress. The latitudinal shift of the SASH tends to dampen the anomalous alongshore wind by modulating the land-sea thermal contrast, while opposed by oceanic diffusion. Although the position of the SASH is closely linked to the phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the southern annular mode (SAM) in austral summer, an overall relationship between Benguela upwelling strength and ENSO or SAM is absent. During austral winter, variations of the mixed layer Ekman transport in the Benguela upwelling region are connected to the strength of the SASH through its impact on both coastal wind stress curl and alongshore surface wind stress. Compared with austral summer, low-level cloud cover change plays a more important role. Although wintertime sea surface temperature fluctuations in the equatorial Atlantic are strong and may act to influence variability over the northern Benguela area, the surface heat budget analysis suggests that local air-sea interactions dominate.

Dual temperature effects on oxygen isotopic ratio of shallow-water coral skeleton: Consequences on seasonal and interannual records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Juillet-Leclerc, A.; Reynaud, S.

2009-04-01

Oxygen isotopic ratio from coral skeleton is regarded for a long time as promising climate archives at seasonal scale. Although in isotopic disequilibrium relative to seawater, it is supposed to obey to the isotope thermometer. Indeed, coral oxygen isotopic records are strongly temperature dependent, but d18O-temperature calibrations derived from different corals are highly variable. The isotope thermometer assumption does not take into account vital effects due to biogenic origin of the mineral. Corals are animals living in symbiosis with algae (zooxanthellae). Interactions between symbiont photosynthesis and coral skeleton carbonation have been abundantly observed but they remain poorly understood and the effects of photosynthesis on coral growth and skeleton oxygen ratio are ignored. Coral cultured under two light conditions enabled to relate metabolic parameters and oxygen isotopic variability with photosynthetic activity. By examining responses provided by each colony they revealed that photosynthesis significantly affected d18O, by an opposite sense compared with the sole temperature influence. Since temperature and light changes are associated during seasonal variations, this complicates the interpretation of seasonal record. Additionally, this complexity is amplified because photosynthetic activity is also directly impacted by temperature variability. Thus, the annual isotopic amplitude due to the "physical" temperature influence is partly compensated through photosynthesis. Similar opposite effect is also shown by extension rate of the cultured colonies. First, we will examine and quantify consequences of photosynthesis on growth rate and oxygen isotopic signature, from cultured corals. Second, we will consider the consequences of this vital effect on data series, at seasonal and interannual time scales.

Variability of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency in a Large Ensemble of High-Resolution Climate Simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mei, W.; Kamae, Y.; Xie, S. P.

2017-12-01

Forced and internal variability of North Atlantic hurricane frequency during 1951-2010 is studied using a large ensemble of climate simulations by a 60-km atmospheric general circulation model that is forced by observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The simulations well capture the interannual-to-decadal variability of hurricane frequency in best track data, and further suggest a possible underestimate of hurricane counts in the current best track data prior to 1966 when satellite measurements were unavailable. A genesis potential index (GPI) averaged over the Main Development Region (MDR) accounts for more than 80% of the forced variations in hurricane frequency, with potential intensity and vertical wind shear being the dominant factors. In line with previous studies, the difference between MDR SST and tropical mean SST is a simple but useful predictor; a one-degree increase in this SST difference produces 7.1±1.4 more hurricanes. The hurricane frequency also exhibits internal variability that is comparable in magnitude to the interannual variability. The 100-member ensemble allows us to address the following important questions: (1) Are the observations equivalent to one realization of such a large ensemble? (2) How many ensemble members are needed to reproduce the variability in observations and in the forced component of the simulations? The sources of the internal variability in hurricane frequency will be identified and discussed. The results provide an explanation for the relatively week correlation ( 0.6) between MDR GPI and hurricane frequency on interannual timescales in observations.

Seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 and climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dettinger, Michael D.; Ghil, Michael

1998-02-01

Interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are almost masked by the seasonal cycle and a strong trend; at the South Pole, the seasonal cycle is small and is almost lost in the trend and interannual variations. Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) is used here to isolate and reconstruct interannual signals at both sites and to visualize recent decadal changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Analysis of the Mauna Loa CO2 series illustrates a hastening of the CO2 seasonal cycle, a close temporal relation between Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature trends and the amplitude of the seasonal CO2 cycle, and tentative ties between the latter and seasonality changes in temperature over the NH continents. Variations of the seasonal CO2 cycle at the South Pole differ from those at Mauna Loa: it is phase changes of the seasonal cycle at the South Pole, rather than amplitude changes, that parallel hemispheric and global temperature trends. The seasonal CO2 cycles exhibit earlier occurrences of the seasons by 7days at Mauna Loa and 18days at the South Pole. Interannual CO2 variations are shared at the two locations, appear to respond to tropical processes, and can be decomposed mostly into two periodicities, around (3years)1 and (4years)1, respectively. Joint SSA analyses of CO2 concentrations and tropical climate indices isolate a shared mode with a quasi-triennial (QT) period in which the CO2 and sea-surface temperature (SST) participation are in phase opposition. The other shared mode has a quasi-quadrennial (QQ) period and CO2 variations are in phase with the corresponding tropical SST variations throughout the tropics. Together these interannual modes exhibit a mean lag between tropical SSTs and CO2 variations of about 6 8months, with SST leading. Analysis of the QT and QQ signals in global gridded SSTs, joint SSA of CO2 and δ13C isotopic ratios, and SSA of CO2 and NH-land temperatures indicate that the QT variations in CO2 mostly reflect upwelling variations in the eastern tropical Pacific. QQ variations are dominated by the CO2 signature of terrestrial-ecosystem response to global QQ climate variations. Climate variations associated with these two interannual components of tropical variability have very different effects on global climate and, especially, on terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.

[Effect of climate change on the fisheries conununity pattern in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea].

PubMed

Liu, Zun-lei; Yuan, Xing-wei; Yang, Lin-lin; Yan, Li-ping; Tian, Yong-jun; Chen, Jia-hua

2015-03-01

Data sets of 26 fisheries target species from the fishery-depen-dent and fishery-independent surveys in the overwintering ground of open waters of northern East China Sea (OW-NECS), combined sea surface temperature (SST), were used to examine the links between diversity index, pattern of common variability and climate changes based on the principal component analysis (PCA) and generalized additive model (GAM). The results showed that the shift from a cold regime to a warm regime was detected in SST during the 1970s-2011 with step changes around 1982/ 1983. SST increased during the cold regime and the warm regime before 1998 (warming trend period, 1972-1998), and decreased during the warm regime after 1998 (cooling trend period, 1999-2011). Shannon diversity index was largely dependent on the filefish, which contributed up to 50% of the total production as a single species, with low diversity in the waters of the OW-NECS, during the late 1980s and early 1990s. Excluding the filefish, the diversity index linearly increased and decreased during 1972-1998 and 1999-2011, respectively. The variation pattern generally corresponds with the trend in water temperature, strongly suggesting the effect of the SST on the diversity. The first two components (PC1 and PC2) of PCA for target species, which accounted for 32.43% of the total variance, showed evident decadal variation patterns with a step change during 1992-1999 and inter-annual variability with short-period fluctuation, respectively. It seems that PC1 was associated with large scale climatic change, while PC2 was related to inter-annual oceanographic variability such as ENSO events. Linear fitting results showed winEOF1 had significant effect on PC1, and GAM analysis for PC1 showed that winter EOF1 (winEOF1) and summer EOF2 (sumEOF2) can explain 88.9% of the total variance. Nonlinear effect was also found between PC2 and win EOF1, indicating that the fish community structure, which had predominantly decadal/inter-annual variation patterns, was influenced by inter-annual variations in oceanographic conditions.

East Asia winter climate changes under RCP scenarios in terms of East Asian winter monsoon indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahn, J. B.; Hong, J. Y.

2016-12-01

The changes in the winter climatology and variability of the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) for the late 21st century (2070-2099) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are projected in terms of EAWM indices (EAWMIs). Firstly, the capability of the climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) in simulating the boreal winter climatology and the interannual variability of the EAWM for the late 20th century (1971-2000) is examined. Nine of twenty-three climate models are selected based on the pattern correlations with observation and a multi-model ensemble is applied to the nine model data. Three of twelve EAWMIs that show the most significant temporal correlations between the observation and CMIP5 surface air temperatures are utilized. The ensemble CMIP5 is capable of reproducing the overall features of the EAWM in spite of some biases in the region. The negative correlations between the EAWMIs and boreal winter temperature are well reproduced and 3-5 years of the major interannual variation observed in this region are also well simulated according to power spectral analyses of the simulated indices. The regressed fields of sea level pressure, surface air temperature, 500-hPa geopotential height, and 300-hPa zonal wind are well established with pattern correlations above 0.83 between CMIP5 and observation data. The differences between RCPs and Historical indicate strong warming, which increases with latitude, ranging from 1°C to 5°C under RCP4.5 and from 3°C to 7°C under RCP8.5 in the East Asian region. The anomalous southerly winds generally become stronger, implying weaker EAWMs in both scenarios. These features are also identified with fields regressed onto the indices in RCPs. The future projections reveal that the interannual variability of the indices will be maintained with intensity similar to that of the present. AcknowledgmentsThis work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science & Technology Development (Project No. PJ012293)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

Modeling the impacts of phenological and inter-annual changes in landscape metrics on local biodiversity of agricultural lands of Eastern Ontario using multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Alavi-Shoushtari, N.; King, D.

2017-12-01

Agricultural landscapes are highly variable ecosystems and are home to many local farmland species. Seasonal, phenological and inter-annual agricultural landscape dynamics have potential to affect the richness and abundance of farmland species. Remote sensing provides data and techniques which enable monitoring landscape changes in multiple temporal and spatial scales. MODIS high temporal resolution remote sensing images enable detection of seasonal and phenological trends, while Landsat higher spatial resolution images, with its long term archive enables inter-annual trend analysis over several decades. The objective of this study to use multi-spatial and multi-temporal remote sensing data to model the response of farmland species to landscape metrics. The study area is the predominantly agricultural region of eastern Ontario. 92 sample landscapes were selected within this region using a protocol designed to maximize variance in composition and configuration heterogeneity while controlling for amount of forest and spatial autocorrelation. Two sample landscape extents (1×1km and 3×3km) were selected to analyze the impacts of spatial scale on biodiversity response. Gamma diversity index data for four taxa groups (birds, butterflies, plants, and beetles) were collected during the summers of 2011 and 2012 within the cropped area of each landscape. To extract the seasonal and phenological metrics a 2000-2012 MODIS NDVI time-series was used, while a 1985-2012 Landsat time-series was used to model the inter-annual trends of change in the sample landscapes. The results of statistical modeling showed significant relationships between farmland biodiversity for several taxa and the phenological and inter-annual variables. The following general results were obtained: 1) Among the taxa groups, plant and beetles diversity was most significantly correlated with the phenological variables; 2) Those phenological variables which are associated with the variability in the start of season date across the sample landscapes and the variability in the corresponding NDVI values at that date showed the strongest correlation with the biodiversity indices; 3) The significance of the models improved when using 3×3km site extent both for MODIS and Landsat based models due most likely to the larger sample size over 3x3km.

Interannual and seasonal variability of water use efficiency in a tropical rainforest: Results from a 9 year eddy flux time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Zheng-Hong; Zhang, Yi-Ping; Deng, Xiao-Bao; Song, Qing-Hai; Liu, Wen-Jie; Deng, Yun; Tang, Jian-Wei; Liao, Zhi-Yong; Zhao, Jun-Fu; Song, Liang; Yang, Lian-Yan

2015-01-01

used a continuous 9 year (2003-2011) eddy flux time series with 30 min resolution to examine water use efficiency in a tropical rainforest and determine its environmental controls. The multiyear mean water use efficiency (Wue) of this rainforest was 3.16 ± 0.33 gC per kg H2O, which is close to that of boreal forests, but higher than subtropical forests, and lower than temperate forests. The water vapor deficit (VPD) had a strong impact on instantaneous Wue, in the manner predicted by stomatal optimization theory. At the seasonal scale, temperature was the dominant controller of Wue. The negative correlation between temperature and Wue was probably caused by high continuous photosynthesis during low-temperature periods. The VPD did not correlate with Wue at the interannual scale. No interannual trend was detected in Wue or inherent water use efficiency (Wei), either annually or seasonally. The fact that no increasing trend of Wei was found in the studied tropical rainforest, along with other evidence of CO2 stimulation in tropical rainforests, requires special attention and data validation. There was no significant difference between Wue during a drought and the 9 year mean values in the forest we studied, but we found that dry season transpiration (Tr) was consistently lower during the drought compared to the mean values. Finally, whether Wue increases or decreases during a drought is determined by the drought sensitivity of gross primary production (GPP).

Interannual Tropical Rainfall Variability in General Circulation Model Simulations Associated with the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sperber, K. R.; Palmer, T. N.

1996-11-01

The interannual variability of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, the African Sahel, and the Nordeste region of Brazil have been evaluated in 32 models for the period 1979-88 as part of the Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP). The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall are the most readily captured, owing to the intimate link with Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. The precipitation variations over India and the Sahel are less well simulated. Additionally, an Indian monsoon wind shear index was calculated for each model. Evaluation of the interannual variability of a wind shear index over the summer monsoon region indicates that the models exhibit greater fidelity in capturing the large-scale dynamic fluctuations than the regional-scale rainfall variations. A rainfall/SST teleconnection quality control was used to objectively stratify model performance. Skill scores improved for those models that qualitatively simulated the observed rainfall/El Niño- Southern Oscillation SST correlation pattern. This subset of models also had a rainfall climatology that was in better agreement with observations, indicating a link between systematic model error and the ability to simulate interannual variations.A suite of six European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) AMIP runs (differing only in their initial conditions) have also been examined. As observed, all-India rainfall was enhanced in 1988 relative to 1987 in each of these realizations. All-India rainfall variability during other years showed little or no predictability, possibly due to internal chaotic dynamics associated with intraseasonal monsoon fluctuations and/or unpredictable land surface process interactions. The interannual variations of Nordeste rainfall were best represented. The State University of New York at Albany/National Center for Atmospheric Research Genesis model was run in five initial condition realizations. In this model, the Nordeste rainfall variability was also best reproduced. However, for all regions the skill was less than that of the ECMWF model.The relationships of the all-India and Sahel rainfall/SST teleconnections with horizontal resolution, convection scheme closure, and numerics have been evaluated. Models with resolution T42 performed more poorly than lower-resolution models. The higher resolution models were predominantly spectral. At low resolution, spectral versus gridpoint numerics performed with nearly equal verisimilitude. At low resolution, moisture convergence closure was slightly more preferable than other convective closure techniques. At high resolution, the models that used moisture convergence closure performed very poorly, suggesting that moisture convergence may be problematic for models with horizontal resolution T42.

Climatic effects on breeding grounds are more important drivers of breeding phenology in migrant birds than carry-over effects from wintering grounds.

PubMed

Ockendon, Nancy; Leech, Dave; Pearce-Higgins, James W

2013-01-01

Long-distance migrants may be particularly vulnerable to climate change on both wintering and breeding grounds. However, the relative importance of climatic variables at different stages of the annual cycle is poorly understood, even in well-studied Palaearctic migrant species. Using a national dataset spanning 46 years, we investigate the impact of wintering ground precipitation and breeding ground temperature on breeding phenology and clutch size of 19 UK migrants. Although both spring temperature and arid zone precipitation were significantly correlated with laying date, the former accounted for 3.5 times more inter-annual variation. Neither climate variable strongly affected clutch size. Thus, although carry-over effects had some impact, they were weaker drivers of reproductive traits than conditions on the breeding grounds.

Seasonal and interannual cross-shelf transport over the Texas and Louisiana continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thyng, Kristen M.; Hetland, Robert D.

2018-05-01

Numerical drifters are tracked in a hydrodynamic simulation of circulation over the Texas-Louisiana shelf to analyze patterns in cross-shelf transport of materials. While the important forcing mechanisms in the region (wind, river, and deep eddies) and associated flow patterns are known, the resultant material transport is less well understood. The primary metric used in the calculations is the percent of drifters released within a region that cross the 100 m isobath. Results of the analysis indicate that, averaged over the eleven years of the simulation, there are two regions on the shelf - over the Texas shelf during winter, and over the Louisiana shelf in summer - with increased seasonal probability for offshore transport. Among the two other distinct regions, the big bend region in Texas has increased probability for onshore transport, and the Mississippi Delta region has an increase in offshore transport, for both seasons. Some of these regions of offshore transport have marked interannual variability. This interannual variability is correlated to interannual changes in forcing conditions. Winter transport off of the Texas shelf is correlated with winter mean wind direction, with more northerly winds enhancing offshore transport; summer transport off the Louisiana shelf is correlated with Mississippi River discharge.

Understanding interannual variability in the distribution of, and transport processes affecting, the early life stages of Todarodes pacificus using behavioral-hydrodynamic modeling approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Jung Jin; Stockhausen, William; Kim, Suam; Cho, Yang-Ki; Seo, Gwang-Ho; Lee, Joon-Soo

2015-11-01

To understand interannual variability in the distribution of the early life stages of Todarodes pacificus summer spawning population, and to identify the key transport processes influencing this variability, we used a coupled bio-physical model that combines an individual-based model (IBM) incorporating ontogenetic vertical migration for paralarval behavior and temperature-dependent survival process with a ROMS oceanographic model. Using the distribution of paralarvae observed in the northern East China Sea (ECS) during several field cruises as an end point, the spawning ground for the summer-spawning population was estimated to extend from southeast Jeju Island to the central ECS near 29°N by running the model backwards in time. Running the model forward, interannual variability in the distribution of paralarvae predicted by the model was consistent with that observed in several field surveys; surviving individuals in the northern ECS were substantially more abundant in late July 2006 than in 2007, in agreement with observed paralarval distributions. The total number of surviving individuals at 60 days after release based on the simulation throughout summer spawning period (June-August) was 20,329 for 2006, compared with 13,816 for 2007. The surviving individuals were mainly distributed in the East/Japan Sea (EJS), corresponding to a pathway following the nearshore branch of the Tsushima Warm Current flowing along the Japanese coast during both years. In contrast, the abundance of surviving individuals was extremely low in 2007 compared to 2006 on the Pacific side of Japan. Interannual variability in transport and survival processes made a substantial impact on not only the abundance of surviving paralarvae, but also on the flux of paralarvae to adjacent waters. Our simulation results for between-year variation in paralarval abundance coincide with recruitment (year n + 1) variability of T. pacificus in the field. The agreement between the simulation and field data indicates our model may be useful for predicting the recruitment of T. pacificus.

Seasonal and Interannual Variabilities in Tropical Tropospheric Ozone

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ziemke, J. R.; Chandra, S.

1999-01-01

This paper presents a detailed characterization of seasonal and interannual variability in tropical tropospheric column ozone (TCO). TCO time series are derived from 20 years (1979-1998) of total ozone mapping spectrometer (TOMS) data using the convective cloud differential (CCD) method. Our study identifies three regions in the tropics with distinctly different zonal characteristics related to seasonal and interannual variability. These three regions are the eastern Pacific, Atlantic, and western Pacific. Results show that in both the eastern and western Pacific seasonal-cycle variability of northern hemisphere (NH) TCO exhibits maximum amount during NH spring whereas largest amount in southern hemisphere (SH) TCO occurs during SH spring. In the Atlantic, maximum TCO in both hemispheres occurs in SH spring. These seasonal cycles are shown to be comparable to seasonal cycles present in ground-based ozonesonde measurements. Interannual variability in the Atlantic region indicates a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) signal that is out of phase with the QBO present in stratospheric column ozone (SCO). This is consistent with high pollution and high concentrations of mid-to-upper tropospheric O3-producing precursors in this region. The out of phase relation suggests a UV modulation of tropospheric photochemistry caused by the QBO in stratospheric O3. During El Nino events there is anomalously low TCO in the eastern Pacific and high values in the western Pacific, indicating the effects of convectively-driven transport of low-value boundary layer O3 (reducing TCO) and O3 precursors including H2O and OH. A simplified technique is proposed to derive high-resolution maps of TCO in the tropics even in the absence of tropopause-level clouds. This promising approach requires only total ozone gridded measurements and utilizes the small variability observed in TCO near the dateline. This technique has an advantage compared to the CCD method because the latter requires high-resolution footprint measurements of both reflectivity and total ozone in the presence of tropopause-level cloud tops.

A Comparison of Seasonal and Interannual Variability of Soil Dust Aerosols Over the Atlantic Ocean as Inferred by the Toms AI and AVHRR AOT Retrievals

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cakmur, R. V.; Miller, R. L.; Tegen, Ina; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2001-01-01

The seasonal cycle and interannual variability of two estimates of soil (or 'mineral') dust aerosols are compared: Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) aerosol optical thickness (AOT) and Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol index (AI), Both data sets, comprising more than a decade of global, daily images, are commonly used to evaluate aerosol transport models. The present comparison is based upon monthly averages, constructed from daily images of each data set for the period between 1984 and 1990, a period that excludes contamination from volcanic eruptions. The comparison focuses upon the Northern Hemisphere subtropical Atlantic Ocean, where soil dust aerosols make the largest contribution to the aerosol load, and are assumed to dominate the variability of each data set. While each retrieval is sensitive to a different aerosol radiative property - absorption for the TOMS AI versus reflectance for the AVHRR AOT - the seasonal cycles of dust loading implied by each retrieval are consistent, if seasonal variations in the height of the aerosol layer are taken into account when interpreting the TOMS AI. On interannual time scales, the correlation is low at most locations. It is suggested that the poor interannual correlation is at least partly a consequence of data availability. When the monthly averages are constructed using only days common to both data sets, the correlation is substantially increased: this consistency suggests that both TOMS and AVHRR accurately measure the aerosol load in any given scene. However, the two retrievals have only a few days in common per month so that these restricted monthly averages have a large uncertainty. Calculations suggest that at least 7 to 10 daily images are needed to estimate reliably the average dust load during any particular month, a threshold that is rarely satisfied by the AVHRR AOT due to the presence of clouds in the domain. By rebinning each data set onto a coarser grid, the availability of the AVHRR AOT is increased during any particular month, along with its interannual correlation with the TOMS AI The latter easily exceeds the sampling threshold due to its greater ability to infer the aerosol load in the presence of clouds. Whether the TOMS AI should be regarded as a more reliable indicator of interannual variability depends upon the extent of contamination by sub-pixel clouds.

Intraseasonal and interannual oscillations in coupled ocean-atmosphere models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hirst, Anthony C.; Lau, K.-M.

1990-01-01

An investigation is presented of coupled ocean-atmosphere models' behavior in an environment where atmospheric wave speeds are substantially reduced from dry atmospheric values by such processes as condensation-moisture convergence. Modes are calculated for zonally periodic, unbounded ocean-atmosphere systems, emphasizing the importance of an inclusion of prognostic atmosphere equations in simple coupled ocean-atmosphere models with a view to simulations of intraseasonal variability and its possible interaction with interannual variability. The dynamics of low and high frequency modes are compared; both classes are sensitive to the degree to which surface wind anomalies are able to affect the evaporation rate.

Effects of climate change and variability on population dynamics in a long-lived shorebird.

PubMed

van de Pol, Martijn; Vindenes, Yngvild; Saether, Bernt-Erik; Engen, Steinar; Ens, Bruno J; Oosterbeek, Kees; Tinbergen, Joost M

2010-04-01

Climate change affects both the mean and variability of climatic variables, but their relative impact on the dynamics of populations is still largely unexplored. Based on a long-term study of the demography of a declining Eurasian Oystercatcher (Haematopus ostralegus) population, we quantify the effect of changes in mean and variance of winter temperature on different vital rates across the life cycle. Subsequently, we quantify, using stochastic stage-structured models, how changes in the mean and variance of this environmental variable affect important characteristics of the future population dynamics, such as the time to extinction. Local mean winter temperature is predicted to strongly increase, and we show that this is likely to increase the population's persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that higher temperatures have on fecundity. Interannual variation in winter temperature is predicted to decrease, which is also likely to increase persistence time via its positive effects on adult survival that outweigh the negative effects that lower temperature variability has on fecundity. Overall, a 0.1 degrees C change in mean temperature is predicted to alter median time to extinction by 1.5 times as many years as would a 0.1 degrees C change in the standard deviation in temperature, suggesting that the dynamics of oystercatchers are more sensitive to changes in the mean than in the interannual variability of this climatic variable. Moreover, as climate models predict larger changes in the mean than in the standard deviation of local winter temperature, the effects of future climatic variability on this population's time to extinction are expected to be overwhelmed by the effects of changes in climatic means. We discuss the mechanisms by which climatic variability can either increase or decrease population viability and how this might depend both on species' life histories and on the vital rates affected. This study illustrates that, for making reliable inferences about population consequences in species in which life history changes with age or stage, it is crucial to investigate the impact of climate change on vital rates across the entire life cycle. Disturbingly, such data are unavailable for most species of conservation concern.

The influence of ENSO on an oceanic eddy pair in the South China Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chu, Xiaoqing; Dong, Changming; Qi, Yiquan

2017-03-01

An eddy pair off the Vietnam coast is one of the most important features of the summertime South China Sea circulation. Its variability is of interest due to its profound impact on regional climate, ecosystems, biological processes, and fisheries. This study examines the influence of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a basin-scale climatic mode, on the interannual variability of this regional eddy pair using satellite observational data and historical hydrographic measurements. Over the last three decades, the eddy pair strengthened in 1994 and 2002, and weakened in 2006, 2007, and 2008. It was absent in 1988, 1995, 1998, and 2010, coinciding with strong El Nino-to-La Nina transitions. Composite analyses showed that the strong transition events of ENSO led to radical changes in the summer monsoon, through the forcing of a unique sea surface temperature anomaly structure over the tropical Indo-Pacific basin. With weaker zonal wind, a more northward wind direction, and the disappearance of a pair of positive and negative wind stress curls, the eastward current jet turns northward along the Vietnam coast and the eddy pair disappears.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yanai, M.; Tomita, T.

Using the National Centers for Environmental Predictions (NCEP)-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) reanalysis, distributions of the heat source Q{sub 1} and moisture sink Q{sub 2} between 50{degree}N and 50{degree}S are determined for a 15-yr period from 1980 to 1994. Heating mechanisms operating in various parts of the world are examined by comparing the horizontal distributions of the vertically integrated heat source {l_angle}Q{sub 1}{r_angle} with those of the vertically integrated moisture sink {l_angle}Q{sub 2}{r_angle} and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) flux and by comparing the vertical distributions of Q{sub 1} with those of Q{sub 2}. In northern winter, the major heatmore » sources are located (i) in a broad zone connecting the tropical Indian Ocean, Indonesia, and the South Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ); (ii) over the Congo and Amazon Basins; and (iii) off the east coasts of Asia and North America. In northern summer, the major heat sources are over (i) the Bay of Bengal coast, (ii) the western tropical Pacific, and (iii) Central America. Heat sources in various regions exhibit strong interannual variability. A long (4-5 yr) periodicity corresponding to the variations in OLR and sea surface temperature (SST) is dominant in the equatorial eastern and central Pacific Ocean, while a shorter-period oscillation is superimposed upon the long-period variation over the equatorial Indian Ocean. The interannual variations of {l_angle}Q{sub 1}{r_angle}, OLR, and SST are strongly coupled in the eastern and central equatorial Pacific. However, the coupling between the interannual variations of {l_angle}Q{sub 1}{r_angle} and OLR with those of SST is weak in the equatorial western Pacific and Indian Ocean, suggesting that factors other than the local SST are also at work in controlling the variations of atmospheric convection in these regions. 62 refs., 11 figs., 1 tab.« less

Mechanisms driving variability in the ocean forcing of Pine Island Glacier

PubMed Central

Webber, Benjamin G. M.; Heywood, Karen J.; Stevens, David P.; Dutrieux, Pierre; Abrahamsen, E. Povl; Jenkins, Adrian; Jacobs, Stanley S.; Ha, Ho Kyung; Lee, Sang Hoon; Kim, Tae Wan

2017-01-01

Pine Island Glacier (PIG) terminates in a rapidly melting ice shelf, and ocean circulation and temperature are implicated in the retreat and growing contribution to sea level rise of PIG and nearby glaciers. However, the variability of the ocean forcing of PIG has been poorly constrained due to a lack of multi-year observations. Here we show, using a unique record close to the Pine Island Ice Shelf (PIIS), that there is considerable oceanic variability at seasonal and interannual timescales, including a pronounced cold period from October 2011 to May 2013. This variability can be largely explained by two processes: cumulative ocean surface heat fluxes and sea ice formation close to PIIS; and interannual reversals in ocean currents and associated heat transport within Pine Island Bay, driven by a combination of local and remote forcing. Local atmospheric forcing therefore plays an important role in driving oceanic variability close to PIIS. PMID:28211473

Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand.

PubMed

Dewes, Candida F; Rangwala, Imtiaz; Barsugli, Joseph J; Hobbins, Michael T; Kumar, Sanjiv

2017-01-01

Several studies have projected increases in drought severity, extent and duration in many parts of the world under climate change. We examine sources of uncertainty arising from the methodological choices for the assessment of future drought risk in the continental US (CONUS). One such uncertainty is in the climate models' expression of evaporative demand (E0), which is not a direct climate model output but has been traditionally estimated using several different formulations. Here we analyze daily output from two CMIP5 GCMs to evaluate how differences in E0 formulation, treatment of meteorological driving data, choice of GCM, and standardization of time series influence the estimation of E0. These methodological choices yield different assessments of spatio-temporal variability in E0 and different trends in 21st century drought risk. First, we estimate E0 using three widely used E0 formulations: Penman-Monteith; Hargreaves-Samani; and Priestley-Taylor. Our analysis, which primarily focuses on the May-September warm-season period, shows that E0 climatology and its spatial pattern differ substantially between these three formulations. Overall, we find higher magnitudes of E0 and its interannual variability using Penman-Monteith, in particular for regions like the Great Plains and southwestern US where E0 is strongly influenced by variations in wind and relative humidity. When examining projected changes in E0 during the 21st century, there are also large differences among the three formulations, particularly the Penman-Monteith relative to the other two formulations. The 21st century E0 trends, particularly in percent change and standardized anomalies of E0, are found to be sensitive to the long-term mean value and the amplitude of interannual variability, i.e. if the magnitude of E0 and its interannual variability are relatively low for a particular E0 formulation, then the normalized or standardized 21st century trend based on that formulation is amplified relative to other formulations. This is the case for the use of Hargreaves-Samani and Priestley-Taylor, where future E0 trends are comparatively much larger than for Penman-Monteith. When comparing Penman-Monteith E0 responses between different choices of input variables related to wind speed, surface roughness, and net radiation, we found differences in E0 trends, although these choices had a much smaller influence on E0 trends than did the E0 formulation choices. These methodological choices and specific climate model selection, also have a large influence on the estimation of trends in standardized drought indices used for drought assessment operationally. We find that standardization tends to amplify divergences between the E0 trends calculated using different E0 formulations, because standardization is sensitive to both the climatology and amplitude of interannual variability of E0. For different methodological choices and GCM output considered in estimating E0, we examine potential sources of uncertainty in 21st century trends in the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) over selected regions of the CONUS to demonstrate the practical implications of these methodological choices for the quantification of drought risk under climate change.

A Millennial Record of Rainfall And ENSO Variability in Stalagmites From a Mid-Ocean Island in the South Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aharon, P.; Rasbury, M. S.; Lambert, W. J.; Ghaleb, B.; Lambert, L.

2005-12-01

Improved understanding of ocean-atmosphere interactions that control interdecadal ENSO variability prompted recently a renewed interest in the acquisition of highly resolved proxy ENSO records. Corals possessing annual growth increments have extended the ENSO archive several centuries beyond the existing instrumental data but much longer records are needed to constrain the interdecadal periodicities and unravel their underlying causes. To this end, paleoclimate proxies archived in stalagmites from tropical Pacific settings have not been harnessed to the task of ENSO paleo-reconstructions although stalagmites elsewhere have offered valuable paleoclimate insights. Here we report the results of an investigation of stalagmites from a water-table cave on Niue Island in the South Pacific (19o 00' S; 169o 50' W) located at the epicenter of oceanic ENSO. Century-long instrumental records on Niue provide a frame of reference and indicate that the interannual and interdecadal air temperature variability is negligible but the rainfall is fully engaged in the wheels of ENSO such that El-Niño and La-Niña events correspond with droughts and abundant rainfall, respectively. Seasonal monsoon and trade rainfalls exhibit a marked contrast in their oxygen isotope compositions. Rainfall amount governs microbial soil activities resulting in convergent 18O and 13C depletions and enrichments in the drips that are transferred to the calcite stalagmites in the Niuean caves. A detailed study of four actively growing stalagmites whose chronology overlaps with the instrumental records confirms that interannual and decadal-scale ENSO variability is clearly expressed in the annual couplets widths and stable oxygen and carbon isotope time-series records of continuous layered stalagmites. Acquisition of a chronology for USM1 stalagmite posed radiometric dating challenges. The U concentration, in the range of 44.2 to 97.5 ppb, is relatively low by comparison with typical stalagmite values. Therefore dating by 230Th/234U method was impractical considering the youthfulness of the stalagmite and the amount of available material. Three dating techniques were used to derive a robust chronology: (i) 226Ra/234U by TIMS; (ii) radiocarbon by AMS, and (iii) couplets counting. In conjunction, the three dating methods indicate that the 160 mm stalagmite section spans a time interval from 1540 to 360 years AD. Interannual and interdecadal-scale variability are the largest components of variance in the millennial-long oxygen isotope time series. Processed in the frequency domain to quantify the variance, the data yield mean periodicities of 5.5 yrs and 30 yrs thus matching modern interannual ENSO and interdecadal IPO periodicity bands. Importantly, previously unidentified cycles of about 200 yrs and 500years duration are clearly discerned in both the oxygen and carbon isotope records. The low frequency cycles exhibit phase alternations between strong ENSO events manifested in severe droughts that are succeeded by rare ENSO events and abundant rainfall. Phase transitions occurred at about 1500, 1300, 1100, 900 and 500 yrs AD. The new millennial record of ENSO offers valuable data of interest to the climate dynamics community investigating the factors controlling ENSO variability through time.

Effect of inter-annual variability in pasture growth and irrigation response on farm productivity and profitability based on biophysical and farm systems modelling.

PubMed

Vogeler, Iris; Mackay, Alec; Vibart, Ronaldo; Rendel, John; Beautrais, Josef; Dennis, Samuel

2016-09-15

Farm system and nutrient budget models are increasingly being used in analysis to inform on farm decision making and evaluate land use policy options at regional scales. These analyses are generally based on the use of average annual pasture yields. In New Zealand (NZ), like in many countries, there is considerable inter-annual variation in pasture growth rates, due to climate. In this study a modelling approach was used to (i) include inter-annual variability as an integral part of the analysis and (ii) test the approach in an economic analysis of irrigation in a case study within the Hawkes Bay Region of New Zealand. The Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) was used to generate pasture dry matter yields (DMY) for 20 different years and under both dryland and irrigation. The generated DMY were linked to outputs from farm-scale modelling for both Sheep and Beef Systems (Farmaxx Pro) and Dairy Systems (Farmax® Dairy Pro) to calculate farm production over 20 different years. Variation in DMY and associated livestock production due to inter-annual variation in climate was large, with a coefficient of variations up to 20%. Irrigation decreased this inter-annual variation. On average irrigation, with unlimited available water, increased income by $831 to 1195/ha, but when irrigation was limited to 250mm/ha/year income only increased by $525 to 883/ha. Using pasture responses in individual years to capturing the inter-annual variation, rather than the pasture response averaged over 20years resulted in lower financial benefits. In the case study income from irrigation based on an average year were 10 to >20% higher compared with those obtained from individual years. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Interactions between Antarctic sea ice and large-scale atmospheric modes in CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schroeter, Serena; Hobbs, Will; Bindoff, Nathaniel L.

2017-03-01

The response of Antarctic sea ice to large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability varies according to sea ice sector and season. In this study, interannual atmosphere-sea ice interactions were explored using observations and reanalysis data, and compared with simulated interactions by models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulated relationships between atmospheric variability and sea ice variability generally reproduced the observed relationships, though more closely during the season of sea ice advance than the season of sea ice retreat. Atmospheric influence on sea ice is known to be strongest during advance, and it appears that models are able to capture the dominance of the atmosphere during advance. Simulations of ocean-atmosphere-sea ice interactions during retreat, however, require further investigation. A large proportion of model ensemble members overestimated the relative importance of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) compared with other modes of high southern latitude climate, while the influence of tropical forcing was underestimated. This result emerged particularly strongly during the season of sea ice retreat. The zonal patterns of the SAM in many models and its exaggerated influence on sea ice overwhelm the comparatively underestimated meridional influence, suggesting that simulated sea ice variability would become more zonally symmetric as a result. Across the seasons of sea ice advance and retreat, three of the five sectors did not reveal a strong relationship with a pattern of large-scale atmospheric variability in one or both seasons, indicating that sea ice in these sectors may be influenced more strongly by atmospheric variability unexplained by the major atmospheric modes, or by heat exchange in the ocean.

Seasonal and Inter-annual Variation in Wood Production in Tropical Trees on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, is Related to Local Climate and Species Functional Traits

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cushman, K.; Muller-Landau, H. C.; Kellner, J. R.; Wright, S. J.; Condit, R.; Detto, M.; Tribble, C. M.

2015-12-01

Tropical forest carbon budgets play a major role in global carbon dynamics, but the responses of tropical forests to current and future inter-annual climatic variation remains highly uncertain. Better predictions of future tropical forest carbon fluxes require an improved understanding of how different species of tropical trees respond to changes in climate at seasonal and inter-annual temporal scales. We installed dendrometer bands on a size-stratified sample of 2000 trees in old growth forest on Barro Colorado Island, Panama, a moist lowland forest that experiences an annual dry season of approximately four months. Tree diameters were measured at the beginning and end of the rainy season since 2008. Additionally, we recorded the canopy illumination level, canopy intactness, and liana coverage of all trees during each census. We used linear mixed-effects models to evaluate how tree growth was related to seasonal and interannual variation in local climate, tree condition, and species identity, and how species identity effects related to tree functional traits. Climatic variables considered included precipitation, solar radiation, soil moisture, and climatological water deficit, and were all calculated from high-quality on-site measurements. Functional traits considered included wood density, maximum adult stature, deciduousness, and drought tolerance. We found that annual wood production was positively related to water availability, with higher growth in wetter years. Species varied in their response to seasonal water availability, with some species showing more pronounced reduction of growth during the dry season when water availability is limited. Interspecific variation in seasonal and interannual growth patterns was related to life-history strategies and species functional traits. The finding of higher growth in wetter years is consistent with previous tree ring studies conducted on a small subset of species with reliable annual rings. Together with previous findings that seed production at this site is higher in sunnier (and drier) years, this suggests strong climate-related shifts in allocation. This study highlights the importance of considering forest species composition and potential allocational shifts when predicting carbon fluxes in response to local climate variation.

Variations of Global Terrestrial Primary Production Observed by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) From 2000 to 2005

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhao, M.; Running, S.; Heinsch, F. A.

2006-12-01

Since the first Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite Terra was launched in December 1999 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor onboard Terra began to provide data in February 2000, we have had six-year MODIS global 1-km terrestrial Gross and Net Primary Production (GPP &NPP) datasets. In this article, we present the variations (seasonality and inter-annual variability) of global GPP/NPP from the latest improved Collection 4.8 (C4.8) MODIS datasets for the past six-year (2000 - 2005), as well as improvements of the algorithm, validations of GPP and NPP. Validation results show that the C4.8 data have higher accuracy and quality than the previous version. Analyses of the variations in GPP/NPP show that GPP not only can reflect strong seasonality of photosynthesis activities by plants in mid- and high-latitude, but importantly, can reveal enhanced growth of Amazon rainforests during dry season, consistent with the reports by Huete et al. (2006) on GRL. Spatially, plants over mid- and high-latitude (north to 22.5°N) are the major contributor of global GPP seasonality. Inter-annual variability of MODIS NPP for 2000 - 2005 reveals the negative effects of major droughts on carbon sequestration at the regional and continental scales. A striking phenomenon is that the severe drought in 2005 over Amazon reduced NPP, indicating water availability becomes the dominant limiting factor rather than solar radiation under normal conditions. GMAO and NCEP driven global total NPPs have the similar interannual anomalies, and they generally follow the inverted CO2 growth rate anomaly with correlation of 0.85 and 0.91, respectively, which are higher than the correlation of 0.7 found by Nemani et al. (2003) on Science. Though there are only 6 years of MODIS data, results show that global NPP decreased from 2000 to 2005, and spatially most decreased NPP areas are in tropic and south hemisphere.

Sea Ice on the Southern Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobs, Stanley S.

1998-01-01

Year-round satellite records of sea ice distribution now extend over more than two decades, providing a valuable tool to investigate related characteristics and circulations in the Southern Ocean. We have studied a variety of features indicative of oceanic and atmospheric interactions with Antarctic sea ice. In the Amundsen & Bellingshausen Seas, sea ice extent was found to have decreased by approximately 20% from 1973 through the early 1990's. This change coincided with and probably contributed to recently warmer surface conditions on the west side of the Antarctic Peninsula, where air temperatures have increased by approximately 0.5 C/decade since the mid-1940's. The sea ice decline included multiyear cycles of several years in length superimposed on high interannual variability. The retreat was strongest in summer, and would have lowered the regional mean ice thickness, with attendant impacts upon vertical heat flux and the formation of snow ice and brine. The cause of the regional warming and loss of sea ice is believed to be linked to large-scale circulation changes in the atmosphere and ocean. At the eastern end of the Weddell Gyre, the Cosmonaut Polyna revealed greater activity since 1986, a recurrence pattern during recent winters and two possible modes of formation. Persistence in polynya location was noted off Cape Ann, where the coastal current can interact more strongly with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. As a result of vorticity conservation, locally enhanced upwelling brings warmer deep water into the mixed layer, causing divergence and melting. In the Ross Sea, ice extent fluctuates over periods of several years, with summer minima and winter maxima roughly in phase. This leads to large interannual cycles of sea ice range, which correlate positively with meridinal winds, regional air temperatures and subsequent shelf water salinities. Deep shelf waters display considerable interannual variability, but have freshened by approximately 0.03/decade since the late 1950's. That could have slowed the thermohaline circulation beneath the Ross Ice Shelf and the properties or volume of local bottom water production.

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen I.; Molinari, John; Thorncroft, Chris D,

2010-01-01

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from TRMM data as a cluster of pixels with an 85 GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area at least 64 km 2. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May Sep for 1998-2007 and in the western Pacific from May Nov 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences among the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Sub-setting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, length of sample period, and climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is wetter or drier than normal.

Mechanisms of Interannual Variations of the Meridional Overturning Circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cabanes, Cecile; Lee, Tong; Fu, Lee-Lueng

2008-01-01

The authors investigate the nature of the interannual variability of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) of the North Atlantic Ocean using an Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) assimilation product for the period of 1993-2003. The time series of the first empirical orthogonal function of the MOC is found to be correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, while the associated circulation anomalies correspond to cells extending over the full ocean depth. Model sensitivity experiments suggest that the wind is responsible for most of this interannual variability, at least south of 40(deg)N. A dynamical decomposition of the meridional streamfunction allows a further look into the mechanisms. In particular, the contributions associated with 1) the Ekman flow and its depth-independent compensation, 2) the vertical shear flow, and 3) the barotropic gyre flowing over zonally varying topography are examined. Ekman processes are found to dominate the shorter time scales (1.5-3 yr), while for longer time scales (3-10 yr) the MOC variations associated with vertical shear flow are of greater importance. The latter is primarily caused by heaving of the pycnocline in the western subtropics associated with the stronger wind forcing. Finally, how these changes in the MOC affect the meridional heat transport (MHT) is examined. It is found that overall, Ekman processes explain a larger part of interannual variability (3-10 yr) for MHT (57%) than for the MOC (33%).

Changes in climate variability with reference to land quality and agriculture in Scotland.

PubMed

Brown, Iain; Castellazzi, Marie

2015-06-01

Classification and mapping of land capability represents an established format for summarising spatial information on land quality and land-use potential. By convention, this information incorporates bioclimatic constraints through the use of a long-term average. However, climate change means that land capability classification should also have a dynamic temporal component. Using an analysis based upon Land Capability for Agriculture in Scotland, it is shown that this dynamism not only involves the long-term average but also shorter term spatiotemporal patterns, particularly through changes in interannual variability. Interannual and interdecadal variations occur both in the likelihood of land being in prime condition (top three capability class divisions) and in class volatility from year to year. These changing patterns are most apparent in relation to the west-east climatic gradient which is mainly a function of precipitation regime and soil moisture. Analysis is also extended into the future using climate results for the 2050s from a weather generator which show a complex interaction between climate interannual variability and different soil types for land quality. In some locations, variability of land capability is more likely to decrease because the variable climatic constraints are relaxed and the dominant constraint becomes intrinsic soil properties. Elsewhere, climatic constraints will continue to be influential. Changing climate variability has important implications for land-use planning and agricultural management because it modifies local risk profiles in combination with the current trend towards agricultural intensification and specialisation.

Arctic Ocean Freshwater: How Robust are Model Simulations

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jahn, A.; Aksenov, Y.; deCuevas, B. A.; deSteur, L.; Haekkinen, S.; Hansen, E.; Herbaut, C.; Houssais, M.-N.; Karcher, M.; Kauker, F.;

Inter-annual Variability in Tundra Phenology Captured with Digital Photography

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melendez, M.; Vargas, S. A.; Tweedie, C. E.

2012-12-01

The need to improve multi-scale phenological monitoring of arctic terrestrial ecosystems has been a persistent research challenge. Although there has been a range of advances in remote sensing capacities over the past decade, these present costly, and sometimes logistically challenging and technically demanding solutions for arctic terrestrial ecosystems. In this poster and undergraduate research project, we demonstrate how seasonal and inter-annual variability in landscape phenology can be derived for multiple tundra ecosystems using a low-cost and low-tech kite aerial photography (KAP) system that has been developed as a contribution to the US Arctic Observing Network. Seasonal landscape phenology was observed over the Networked Info-Mechanical Systems (NIMS) grids (2 x 50 meters) located in Barrow and Atqasuk, Alaska using imagery acquired with KAP and analyzed for a range of greenness indices. Preliminary results showed that the 2G-RB greenness index correlated the best with NDVI values calculated from ground based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. 2012 had the highest 2G-RB greenness index values for both Barrow and Atqasuk sites, which correlated well with NDVI values acquired from ground-based hyperspectral reflectance measurements. Wet vegetation types showed the most interannual variability at the Atqasuk site based on the 2G-RB greenness index while in Barrow the moist vegetation types showed the most interannual variability. These results show that vegetation indices similar to those acquired from hyperspectral remote sensing platforms can be derived using low-cost and low-tech techniques. Further analysis using these same techniques is required in order to link relatively small scale vegetation dynamics measured with KAP with those documented at large scales using satellite imagery.

Seasonal and interannual variability of mesozooplankton in two contrasting estuaries of the Bay of Biscay: Relationship to environmental factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Villate, Fernando; Iriarte, Arantza; Uriarte, Ibon; Sanchez, Iraide

2017-12-01

Seasonal and interannual variations of total mesozooplankton abundance and community variability were assessed for the period 1998-2005 at 3 salinity sites (35, 33 and 30) of the estuaries of Bilbao and Urdaibai (southeast Bay of Biscay). Spatial differences in mesozooplankton seasonality were recognized, both within and between estuaries, related to differences between sites in hydrodynamic features and anthropogenic nutrient enrichment that drive phytoplankton biomass seasonal cycles. The within estuary seasonal differences in mesozooplankton community were mainly shown through seaward time-advances in the seasonal peak from summer to spring along the salinity gradient, linked to differences in phytoplankton availability during the summer, in turn, related to nutrient availability. These differences were most marked in the estuary of Urdaibai, where zooplankton seasonal pattern at 35 salinity (high tidal flushing) resembled that of shelf waters, while at 35 of the estuary of Bilbao zooplankton showed an estuarine seasonal pattern due to the influence of the estuarine plume. Cirripede larvae contributed most to the mesozooplankton seasonal variability, except at the outer estuary of Bilbao, where cladocerans and fish eggs and larvae were the major contributors, and the inner estuary of Urdaibai, where gastropod larvae contributed most. Total mesozooplankton increased at 30 salinity of the estuary of Bilbao and 35 salinity of the estuary of Urdaibai. Interannual variability of mesozooplankton at the lowest salinity of the estuary of Bilbao was mainly accounted for by copepods due to the introduction of non-indigenous species during estuarine rehabilitation from intense pollution. However, bivalve larvae and gastropod larvae showed the highest contributions at 35 salinity of the estuary of Urdaibai. At the rest of sites, the opposite interannual trends of polychaete larvae and hydromedusae generally made the highest contribution.

Interannual Rainfall Variability in the Tropical Atlantic Region

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gu, Guojun

2005-01-01

Rainfall variability on seasonal and interannual-to-interdecadal time scales in the tropical Atlantic is quantified using a 25-year (1979-2003) monthly rainfall dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The ITCZ measured by monthly rainfall between 15-37.5 deg W attains its peak as moving to the northernmost latitude (4-10 deg N) during July-September in which the most total rainfall is observed in the tropical Atlantic basin (17.5 deg S-22.5 deg N, 15 deg-37.5 deg W); the ITCZ becomes weakest during January-February with the least total rainfall as it moves to the south. In contrast, rainfall variability on interannual to interdecadal time scales shows a quite different seasonal preference. The most intense interannual variability occurs during March-May when the ITCZ tends to be near the equator and becomes weaker. Significant, negative correlations between the ITCZ strength and latitude anomalies are observed during boreal spring and early summer. The ITCZ strength and total rainfall amount in the tropical Atlantic basin are significantly modulated by the Pacific El Nino and the Atlantic equatorial mode (or Atlantic Nino) particularly during boreal spring and summer; whereas the impact of the Atlantic interhemispheric mode is considerably weaker. Regarding the anomalous latitudes of the ITCZ, the influence can come from both local, i.e., the Atlantic interhemispheric and equatorial modes, and remote forcings, i. e., El Nino; however, a direct impact of El Nino on the latitudes of the ITCZ can only be found during April-July, not in winter and early spring in which the warmest SST anomalies are usually observed in the equatorial Pacific.

Interannual Variability In the Atmospheric CO2 Rectification Over Boreal Forests Based On A Coupled Ecosystem-Atmosphere Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, B.; Chen, J. M.; Worthy, D.

2004-05-01

Ecosystem CO2 exchange and the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are correlated diurnally and seasonally. The simulation of this atmospheric rectifier effect is important in understanding the global CO2 distribution pattern. A 12-year (1990-1996, 1999-2003), continuous CO2 measurement record from Fraserdale, Ontario (located ~150 km north of Timmons), along with a coupled Vertical Diffusion Scheme (VDS) and ecosystem model (Boreal Ecosystem Productivity Simulator, BEPS), is used to investigate the interannual variability in this effect over a boreal forest region. The coupled model performed well in simulating CO2 vertical diffusion processes. Simulated annual atmospheric rectifier effects, (including seasonal and diurnal), quantified as the variation in the mean CO2 concentration from the surface to the top of the PBL, varied from 2.8 to 4.1 ppm, even though the modeled seasonal variations in the PBL depth were similar throughout the 12-year period. The differences in the interannual rectifier effect primarily resulted from changes in the biospheric CO2 uptake and heterotrophic respiration. Correlations in the year-to year variations of the CO2 rectification were found with mean annual air temperatures, simulated gross primary productivity (GPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (r2=0.5, 0.46, 0.42, respectively). A small increasing trend in the CO2 rectification was also observed. The year-to-year variation in the vertical distribution of the monthly mean CO2 mixing ratios (reflecting differences in the diurnal rectifier effect) was related to interannual climate variability, however, the seasonal rectifier effects were found to be more sensitive to climate variability than the diurnal rectifier effects.

A two-fold increase of carbon cycle sensitivity to tropical temperature variations.

PubMed

Wang, Xuhui; Piao, Shilong; Ciais, Philippe; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Myneni, Ranga B; Cox, Peter; Heimann, Martin; Miller, John; Peng, Shushi; Wang, Tao; Yang, Hui; Chen, Anping

2014-02-13

Earth system models project that the tropical land carbon sink will decrease in size in response to an increase in warming and drought during this century, probably causing a positive climate feedback. But available data are too limited at present to test the predicted changes in the tropical carbon balance in response to climate change. Long-term atmospheric carbon dioxide data provide a global record that integrates the interannual variability of the global carbon balance. Multiple lines of evidence demonstrate that most of this variability originates in the terrestrial biosphere. In particular, the year-to-year variations in the atmospheric carbon dioxide growth rate (CGR) are thought to be the result of fluctuations in the carbon fluxes of tropical land areas. Recently, the response of CGR to tropical climate interannual variability was used to put a constraint on the sensitivity of tropical land carbon to climate change. Here we use the long-term CGR record from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to show that the sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature interannual variability has increased by a factor of 1.9 ± 0.3 in the past five decades. We find that this sensitivity was greater when tropical land regions experienced drier conditions. This suggests that the sensitivity of CGR to interannual temperature variations is regulated by moisture conditions, even though the direct correlation between CGR and tropical precipitation is weak. We also find that present terrestrial carbon cycle models do not capture the observed enhancement in CGR sensitivity in the past five decades. More realistic model predictions of future carbon cycle and climate feedbacks require a better understanding of the processes driving the response of tropical ecosystems to drought and warming.

Combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sreekala, P. P.; Rao, S. Vijaya Bhaskara; Rajeevan, K.; Arunachalam, M. S.

2018-02-01

The present study has examined the combined effect of MJO, ENSO and IOD on the intraseasonal and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall over south peninsular India. The study has revealed that the intraseasonal variation of daily rainfall over south peninsular India during NEM season is associated with various phases of eastward propagating MJO life cycle. Positive rainfall anomaly over south peninsular India and surrounding Indian Ocean (IO) is observed during the strong MJO phases 2, 3 and 4; and negative rainfall anomaly during the strong MJO phases 5,6,7,8 and 1. Above normal (below normal) convection over south peninsular India and suppressed convection over east Indian and West Pacific Ocean, high pressure (low pressure) anomaly over West Pacific Ocean, Positive (negative) SST anomalies over equatorial East and Central Pacific Ocean and easterly wind anomaly (westerly anomaly) over equatorial Indian Ocean are the observed features during the first three MJO (5, 6, 7) phases and all these features are observed in the excess (drought) NEMR composite. This suggests that a similar mode of physical mechanism is responsible for the intraseasonal and interannual variability of northeast monsoon rainfall. The number of days during the first three phases (last four phases) of MJO, where the enhanced convection and positive rainfall anomaly is over Indian Ocean (East Indian ocean and West Pacific Ocean), is more (less) during El Nino and IOD years and less during La Nina and NIOD years and vice versa. The observed excess (deficit) rainfall anomaly over west IO and south peninsular India and deficit (excess) rainfall anomaly over east IO including Bay of Bengal and West Pacific Ocean suggest that the more (less) number of first three phases during El Nino and IOD (La Nina and Negative IOD) is due to the interaction between eastward moving MJO and strong easterlies over equatorial IO present during El Nino and IOD years. This interaction would inhibit the development of long duration MJO and would result in short duration high frequency MJO type which confined over Indian Ocean and south peninsular India and hence make all the El Nino and IOD years to be excess rainfall years for NEM season.

European Wintertime Windstorms and its Links to Large-Scale Variability Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Befort, D. J.; Wild, S.; Walz, M. A.; Knight, J. R.; Lockwood, J. F.; Thornton, H. E.; Hermanson, L.; Bett, P.; Weisheimer, A.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

Winter storms associated with extreme wind speeds and heavy precipitation are the most costly natural hazard in several European countries. Improved understanding and seasonal forecast skill of winter storms will thus help society, policy-makers and (re-) insurance industry to be better prepared for such events. We firstly assess the ability to represent extra-tropical windstorms over the Northern Hemisphere of three seasonal forecast ensemble suites: ECMWF System3, ECMWF System4 and GloSea5. Our results show significant skill for inter-annual variability of windstorm frequency over parts of Europe in two of these forecast suites (ECMWF-S4 and GloSea5) indicating the potential use of current seasonal forecast systems. In a regression model we further derive windstorm variability using the forecasted NAO from the seasonal model suites thus estimating the suitability of the NAO as the only predictor. We find that the NAO as the main large-scale mode over Europe can explain some of the achieved skill and is therefore an important source of variability in the seasonal models. However, our results show that the regression model fails to reproduce the skill level of the directly forecast windstorm frequency over large areas of central Europe. This suggests that the seasonal models also capture other sources of variability/predictability of windstorms than the NAO. In order to investigate which other large-scale variability modes steer the interannual variability of windstorms we develop a statistical model using a Poisson GLM. We find that the Scandinavian Pattern (SCA) in fact explains a larger amount of variability for Central Europe during the 20th century than the NAO. This statistical model is able to skilfully reproduce the interannual variability of windstorm frequency especially for the British Isles and Central Europe with correlations up to 0.8.

Interannual growth dynamics of vegetation in the Kuparuk River watershed, Alaska based on the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hope, A.S.; Boynton, W.L.; Stow, D.A.; Douglas, David C.

2003-01-01

Interannual above-ground production patterns are characterized for three tundra ecosystems in the Kuparuk River watershed of Alaska using NOAA-AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. NDVI values integrated over each growing season (SINDVI) were used to represent seasonal production patterns between 1989 and 1996. Spatial differences in ecosystem production were expected to follow north-south climatic and soil gradients, while interannual differences in production were expected to vary with variations in seasonal precipitation and temperature. It was hypothesized that the increased vegetation growth in high latitudes between 1981 and 1991 previously reported would continue through the period of investigation for the study watershed. Zonal differences in vegetation production were confirmed but interannual variations did not covary with seasonal precipitation or temperature totals. A sharp reduction in the SINDVI in 1992 followed by a consistent increase up to 1996 led to a further hypothesis that the interannual variations in SINDVI were associated with variations in stratospheric optical depth. Using published stratospheric optical depth values derived from the SAGE and SAGE-II satellites, it is demonstrated that variations in these depths are likely the primary cause of SINDVI interannual variability.

The relationship between Arabian Sea upwelling and Indian monsoon revisited

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yi, X.; Hünicke, B.; Tim, N.; Zorita, E.

2015-11-01

Studies based on upwelling indices (sediment records, sea-surface temperature and wind) suggest that upwelling along the western coast of Arabian Sea is strongly affected by the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). In order to examine this relationship directly, we employ the vertical water mass transport produced by the eddy-resolving global ocean simulation STORM driven by meteorological reanalysis over the last 61 years. With its very high spatial resolution (10 km), STORM allows us to identify characteristics of the upwelling system. We analyze the co-variability between upwelling and meteorological and oceanic variables from 1950 to 2010. The analyses reveal high interannual correlations between coastal upwelling and along-shore wind-stress (r=0.73) as well as with sea-surface temperature (r0.83). However, the correlation between the upwelling and the ISM is small and other factors might contribute to the upwelling variability. In addition, no long-term trend is detected in our modeled upwelling time series.

A combination mode of climate variability responsible for extremely poor recruitment of the Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lin, Yong-Fu; Wu, Chau-Ron; Han, Yu-San

2017-03-01

Satellite data and assimilation products are used to investigate fluctuations in the catch of Japanese eel (Anguilla japonica) in eastern Asian countries. It has been reported that the salinity front has extended farther south, which has shifted the eel’s spawning grounds to a lower latitude, resulting in smaller eel catches in 1983, 1992, and 1998. This study demonstrates that interannual variability in the eel catch is strongly correlated with the combination mode (C-mode), but not with the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. These eels continue to spawn within the North Equatorial Current (NEC), but the salinity front shifts south during a canonical El Niño. On the other hand, the spawning grounds accompanied by the salinity front extend farther south during the C-mode of climate variability, and eel larvae fail to join the nursery in the NEC, resulting in extremely poor recruitment in East Asia. We propose an appropriate sea surface temperature index to project Japanese eel larval catch.

The Effect of Alongcoast Advection on Pacific Northwest Shelf and Slope Water Properties in Relation to Upwelling Variability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stone, Hally B.; Banas, Neil S.; MacCready, Parker

2018-01-01

The Northern California Current System experiences highly variable seasonal upwelling in addition to larger basin-scale variability, both of which can significantly affect its water chemistry. Salinity and temperature fields from a 7 year ROMS hindcast model of this region (43°N-50°N), along with extensive particle tracking, were used to study interannual variability in water properties over both the upper slope and the midshelf bottom. Variation in slope water properties was an order of magnitude smaller than on the shelf. Furthermore, the primary relationship between temperature and salinity anomalies in midshelf bottom water consisted of variation in density (cold/salty versus warm/fresh), nearly orthogonal to the anomalies along density levels (cold/fresh versus warm/salty) observed on the upper slope. These midshelf anomalies were well-explained (R2 = 0.6) by the combination of interannual variability in local and remote alongshore wind stress, and depth of the California Undercurrent (CUC) core. Lagrangian analysis of upper slope and midshelf bottom water shows that both are affected simultaneously by large-scale alongcoast advection of water through the northern and southern boundaries. The amplitude of anomalies in bottom oxygen and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) on the shelf associated with upwelling variability are larger than those associated with typical variation in alongcoast advection, and are comparable to observed anomalies in this region. However, a large northern intrusion event in 2004 illustrates that particular, large-scale alongcoast advection anomalies can be just as effective as upwelling variability in changing shelf water properties on the interannual scale.

The Effect of Alongcoast Advection on Pacific Northwest Shelf and Slope Water Properties in Relation to Upwelling Variability

PubMed Central

Banas, Neil S.; MacCready, Parker

2018-01-01

Abstract The Northern California Current System experiences highly variable seasonal upwelling in addition to larger basin‐scale variability, both of which can significantly affect its water chemistry. Salinity and temperature fields from a 7 year ROMS hindcast model of this region (43°N–50°N), along with extensive particle tracking, were used to study interannual variability in water properties over both the upper slope and the midshelf bottom. Variation in slope water properties was an order of magnitude smaller than on the shelf. Furthermore, the primary relationship between temperature and salinity anomalies in midshelf bottom water consisted of variation in density (cold/salty versus warm/fresh), nearly orthogonal to the anomalies along density levels (cold/fresh versus warm/salty) observed on the upper slope. These midshelf anomalies were well‐explained (R 2 = 0.6) by the combination of interannual variability in local and remote alongshore wind stress, and depth of the California Undercurrent (CUC) core. Lagrangian analysis of upper slope and midshelf bottom water shows that both are affected simultaneously by large‐scale alongcoast advection of water through the northern and southern boundaries. The amplitude of anomalies in bottom oxygen and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) on the shelf associated with upwelling variability are larger than those associated with typical variation in alongcoast advection, and are comparable to observed anomalies in this region. However, a large northern intrusion event in 2004 illustrates that particular, large‐scale alongcoast advection anomalies can be just as effective as upwelling variability in changing shelf water properties on the interannual scale. PMID:29938149

Evidence for a possible modern and mid-Holocene solar influence on climate from Lake Titicaca, South America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Theissen, K. M.; Dunbar, R. B.

2005-12-01

In tropical regions, there are few paleoclimate archives with the necessary resolution to investigate climate variability at interannual-to-decadal timescales prior to the onset of the instrumental record. Interannual variability associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is well documented in the instrumental record and the importance of the precessional forcing of millennial variability has been established in studies of tropical paleoclimate records. In contrast, decade-to-century variability is still poorly understood. Here, we examine interannual to decadal variability in the northern Altiplano of South America using digital image analysis of a floating interval of varved sediments of middle Holocene age (~6160-6310 yr BP) from Lake Titicaca. Multi-taper method (MTM) and wavelet frequency-domain analyses were performed on a time series generated from a gray-scaled digital image of the mm-thick laminations. Our results indicate significant power at a decadal periodicity (10-12 years) associated with the Schwabe cycle of solar activity. Frequency-domain analysis also indicates power at 2-2.5 year periodicities associated with ENSO. Similarly, spectral analysis of a 75 year instrumental record of Titicaca lake level shows significant power at both solar and ENSO periodicities. Although both of the examined records are short, our results imply that during both the mid-Holocene and modern times, solar and ENSO variability may have contributed to high frequency climate fluctuations over the northern Altiplano. We suspect that solar influence on large-scale atmospheric circulation features may account for the decadal variability in the mid-Holocene and present-day water balance of the Altiplano.

Storm-tracks interannual variability and large-scale climate modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liberato, Margarida L. R.; Trigo, Isabel F.; Trigo, Ricardo M.

2013-04-01

In this study we focus on the interannual variability and observed changes in northern hemisphere mid-latitude storm-tracks and relate them to large scale atmospheric circulation variability modes. Extratropical storminess, cyclones dominant paths, frequency and intensity have long been the object of climatological studies. The analysis of storm characteristics and historical trends presented here is based on the cyclone detecting and tracking algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region (Trigo et al. 1999) and recently extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region (Trigo 2006). The objective methodology, which identifies and follows individual lows as minima in SLP fields, fulfilling a set of conditions regarding the central pressure and the pressure gradient, is applied to the northern hemisphere 6-hourly geopotential data at 1000 hPa from the 20th Century Reanalyses (20CRv2) project and from reanalyses datasets provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF): ERA-40 and ERA Interim reanalyses. First, we assess the interannual variability and cyclone frequency trends for each of the datasets, for the 20th century and for the period between 1958 and 2002 using the highest spatial resolution available (1.125° x 1.125°) from the ERA-40 data. Results show that winter variability of storm paths, cyclone frequency and travel times is in agreement with the reported variability in a number of large-scale climate patterns (including the North Atlantic Oscillation, the East Atlantic Pattern and the Scandinavian Pattern). In addition, three storm-track databases are built spanning the common available extended winter seasons from October 1979 to March 2002. Although relatively short, this common period allows a comparison of systems represented in reanalyses datasets with distinct horizontal resolutions. This exercise is mostly focused on the key areas of cyclogenesis and cyclolysis and main cyclone characteristics over the northern hemisphere. Trigo IF., TD Davies, GR Bigg (1999) Objective climatology of cyclones in the Mediterranean region. J. Climate 12: 1685-1696. Trigo IF (2006) Climatology and interannual variability of storm-tracks in the Euro-Atlantic sector: a comparison between ERA-40 and NCEP/NCAR reanalyses. Clim. Dyn. 26: 127-143.

Estimating fire severity and carbon emissions over Australian tropical savannas based on passive microwave satellite observations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, X.; Liu, Y.; Evans, J. P.; Parinussa, R.

2017-12-01

Carbon emissions from large-scale fire activity over the Australian tropical savannas have strong inter-annual variability, due mainly to variations in fuel accumulation in response to rainfall. We investigated the use of a recently developed satellite-based vegetation optical depth (VOD) dataset to estimate fire severity and carbon emission. VOD is sensitive to the dynamics of all aboveground vegetation and available nearly every two days. For areas burned during 2003 - 2010, we calculated the VOD change (ΔVOD) pre- and post-fire and the associated loss in above ground biomass carbon. Both results compare well with widely-accepted approaches: ΔVOD agreed well with the Normalized Burn Ratio change (ΔNBR) and carbon loss with modelled emissions from the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED). We found that the ΔVOD and ΔNBR are generally linearly related. The Pearson correlation coefficients (R) between VOD- and GFED-based fire carbon emissions for monthly and annual total estimates are very high, 0.92 and 0.96 respectively. A key feature of fire carbon emissions is the strong inter-annual variation, ranging from 21.1 million tonnes in 2010 to 84.3 million tonnes in 2004. This study demonstrates that a reasonable estimate of fire carbon emissions can be achieved in a timely manner based on multiple satellite observations over the regions where the emissions are primarily from aboveground vegetation loss, which can be complementary to the currently used approaches.

Temporal variability of foliar nutrients: responses to nitrogen deposition and prescribed fire in a temperate steppe

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lü, Xiao-Tao; Reed, Sasha C.; Hou, Shuang-Li; Hu, Yan-Yu; Wei, Hai-Wei; Lü, Fu-Mei; Cui, Qiang; Han, Xing Guo

2017-01-01

Plant nutrient concentrations and stoichiometry drive fundamental ecosystem processes, with important implications for primary production, diversity, and ecosystem sustainability. While a range of evidence exists regarding how plant nutrients vary across spatial scales, our understanding of their temporal variation remains less well understood. Nevertheless, we know nutrients regulate plant function across time, and that important temporal controls could strongly interact with environmental change. Here, we report results from a 3-year assessment of inter-annual changes of foliar nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) concentrations and stoichiometry in three dominant grasses in response to N deposition and prescribed fire in a temperate steppe of northern China. Foliar N and P concentrations and their ratios varied greatly among years, with this temporal variation strongly related to inter-annual variation in precipitation. Nitrogen deposition significantly increased foliar N concentrations and N:P ratios in all species, while fire significantly altered foliar N and P concentrations but had no significant impacts on N:P ratios. Generally, N addition enhanced the temporal stability of foliar N and decreased that of foliar P and of N:P ratios. Our results indicate that plant nutrient status and response to environmental change are temporally dynamic and that there are differential effects on the interactions between environmental change drivers and timing for different nutrients. These responses have important implications for consideration of global change effects on plant community structure and function, management strategies, and the modeling of biogeochemical cycles under global change scenarios.

Modulation of the SSTA decadal variation on ENSO events and relationships of SSTA With LOD,SOI, etc

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liao, D. C.; Zhou, Y. H.; Liao, X. H.

2007-01-01

Interannual and decadal components of the length of day (LOD), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (SSTA) in Nino regions are extracted by band-pass filtering, and used for research of the modulation of the SSTA on the ENSO events. Results show that besides the interannual components, the decadal components in SSTA have strong impacts on monitoring and representing of the ENSO events. When the ENSO events are strong, the modulation of the decadal components of the SSTA tends to prolong the life-time of the events and enlarge the extreme anomalies of the SST, while the ENSO events, which are so weak that they can not be detected by the interannual components of the SSTA, can also be detected with the help of the modulation of the SSTA decadal components. The study further draws attention to the relationships of the SSTA interannual and decadal components with those of LOD, SOI, both of the sea level pressure anomalies (SLPA) and the trade wind anomalies (TWA) in tropic Pacific, and also with those of the axial components of the atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) and oceanic angular momentum (OAM). Results of the squared coherence and coherent phases among them reveal close connections with the SSTA and almost all of the parameters mentioned above on the interannual time scales, while on the decadal time scale significant connections are among the SSTA and SOI, SLPA, TWA, ?3w and ?3w+v as well, and slight weaker connections between the SSTA and LOD, ?3pib and ?3bp

Interannual variability of temperature in the UTLS region over Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river basin based on COSMIC GNSS RO data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Khandu; Awange, Joseph L.; Forootan, Ehsan

2016-04-01

Poor reliability of radiosonde records across South Asia imposes serious challenges in understanding the structure of upper-tropospheric and lower-stratospheric (UTLS) region. The Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) mission launched in April 2006 has overcome many observational limitations inherent in conventional atmospheric sounding instruments. This study examines the interannual variability of UTLS temperature over the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) river basin in South Asia using monthly averaged COSMIC radio occultation (RO) data, together with two global reanalyses. Comparisons between August 2006 and December 2013 indicate that MERRA (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research Application) and ERA-Interim (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis) are warmer than COSMIC RO data by 2 °C between 200 and 50 hPa levels. These warm biases with respect to COSMIC RO data are found to be consistent over time. The UTLS temperature show considerable interannual variability from 2006 to 2013 in addition to warming (cooling) trends in the troposphere (stratosphere). The cold (warm) anomalies in the upper troposphere (tropopause region) are found to be associated with warm ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phase, while quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is negatively (positively) correlated with temperature anomalies at 70 hPa (50 hPa) level. PCA (principal component analysis) decomposition of tropopause temperatures and heights over the basin indicate that ENSO accounts for 73 % of the interannual (non-seasonal) variability with a correlation of 0.77 with Niño3.4 index whereas the QBO explains about 10 % of the variability. The largest tropopause anomaly associated with ENSO occurs during the winter, when ENSO reaches its peak. The tropopause temperature (height) increased (decreased) by about 1.5 °C (300 m) during the last major El Niño event of 2009/2010. In general, we find decreasing (increasing) trend in tropopause temperature (height) between 2006 and 2013.

ENSO Related Inter-Annual Lightning Variability from the Full TRMM LIS Lightning Climatology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Clark, Austin; Cecil, Daniel

2018-01-01

The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) contributes to inter-annual variability of lightning production more than any other atmospheric oscillation. This study further investigated how ENSO phase affects lightning production in the tropics and subtropics using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS). Lightning data were averaged into mean annual warm, cold, and neutral 'years' for analysis of the different phases and compared to model reanalysis data. An examination of the regional sensitivities and preliminary analysis of three locations was conducted using model reanalysis data to determine the leading convective mechanisms in these areas and how they might respond to the ENSO phases

The role of C3 and C4 grasses to interannual variability in remotely sensed ecosystem performance over the US Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ricotta, C.; Reed, Bradley C.; Tieszen, Larry L.

2003-01-01

Time integrated normalized difference vegetation index (ΣNDVI) derived from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) multi-temporal imagery over a 10-year period (1989–1998) was used as a surrogate for primary production to investigate the impact of interannual climate variability on grassland performance for central and northern US Great Plains. First, the contribution of C3 and C4 species abundance to the major grassland ecosystems of the US Great Plains is described. Next, the relation between mean ΣNDVI and the ΣNDVI coefficient of variation (CV ΣNDVI) used as a proxy for interannual climate variability is analysed. Results suggest that the differences in the long-term climatic control over ecosystem performance approximately coincide with changes between C3- and C4-dominant grassland classes. Variation in remotely sensed net primary production over time is higher for the southern and western plains grasslands (primarily C4 grasslands), whereas the C3-dominated classes in the northern and eastern portion of the US Great Plains, generally show lower CV ΣNDVI values.

Ecophysiological and phenological strategies in seasonally-dry ecosystems: an ecohydrological approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vico, Giulia; Manzoni, Stefano; Thompson, Sally; Molini, Annalisa; Porporato, Amilcare

2015-04-01

Seasonally-dry climates are particularly challenging for vegetation, as they are characterized by prolonged dry periods and often marked inter-annual variability. During the dry season plants face predictable physiological stress due to lack of water, whereas the inter-annual variability in rainfall timing and amounts requires plants to develop flexible adaptation strategies. The variety of strategies observed across seasonally-dry (Mediterranean and tropical) ecosystems is indeed wide - ranging from near-isohydric species that adjust stomatal conductance to avoid drought, to anisohydric species that maintain gas exchange during the dry season. A suite of phenological strategies are hypothesized to be associated to ecophysiological strategies. Here we synthetize current knowledge on ecophysiological and phenological adaptations through a comprehensive ecohydrological model linking a soil water balance to a vegetation carbon balance. Climatic regimes are found to select for different phenological strategies that maximize the long-term plant carbon uptake. Inter-annual variability of the duration of the wet season allows coexistence of different drought-deciduous strategies. In contrast, short dry seasons or access to groundwater favour evergreen species. Climatic changes causing more intermittent rainfall and/or shorter wet seasons are predicted to favour drought-deciduous species with opportunistic water use.

Interannual Variability of Water Ice Clouds at Gale Crater

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martinez, G.; Giuranna, M.; McConnochie, T. H.; Tamppari, L.; Smith, M. D.; Vicente-Retortillo, Á.; Renno, N. O.; Kloos, J. L.; Moores, J. E.; Guzewich, S.

2017-12-01

The Aphelion Cloud Belt (ACB) is a water ice cloud band that encircles the planet longitudinally at latitudes ranging from about 10°S to 30°N during the northern spring and summer (aphelion season). The ACB has been studied extensively using satellite observations over the last two decades [1], showing little interannual variability from MY 24 to 34. The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) mission has completed more than 1750 sols of measurements at Gale crater (4.5°S), from Ls 155° in MY 31 to Ls 33° in MY 34. Interestingly, MSL results from various instruments indicate that the ACB produces significant interannual variability at Gale crater during the aphelion season. In particular, near-noon retrievals of water ice opacity by the ChemCam instrument indicate an increase in water ice opacity up to 50% from MY 32 to 33 [2], further supported by analysis of UV [3] and ground temperature [4] data taken by the Rover Environmental Monitoring Station during MY 32 and 33. A weaker ( 5%) increase in water ice opacity in MY 33 relative to MY 32 was also observed from images taken during afternoon hours by the rover's Navigation Cameras [5]. We are analyzing simultaneous and noncontemporary satellite observations at the location of Gale made by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer [6], Mars Climate Sounder, Thermal Emission Imaging System and Thermal Emission Spectrometer to shed light on the nature of the interannual variability of the ACB at Gale, and to locally understand the relation between the ACB and the water cycle. References:[1] Smith, M.D. (2008), Spacecraft observations of the martian atmosphere, Annu. Rev. Earth Planet. Sci. 36. [2] McConnochie, T. H., et al. (2017), Retrieval of Water Vapor Column Abundance and Aerosol Properties from ChemCam Passive Sky Spectroscopy, Icarus (submitted). [3] Vicente-Retortillo, Á., et al. (2017), Determination of dust aerosol particle size at Gale Crater using REMS UVS and Mastcam measurements, GRL, 44. [4] Vasavada, A.R. et al. (2017), Thermophysical properties along Curiosity's traverse in Gale crater, Mars, Icarus 284. [5] Kloos, J. L., and J. E. Moores (2017), Inter-Annual and Diurnal Variability in Clouds Observed from MSL Over Two Martian Years, LPSC, 48. [6] Giuranna, M. et al. (2016), 12 years of atmospheric monitoring by the Planetary Fourier Spectrometer onboard Mars Express, EGU.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of annual and seasonal rainfall in Malawi

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ngongondo, Cosmo; Xu, Chong-Yu; Gottschalk, Lars; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Alemaw, Berhanu

2010-05-01

An understanding of the temporal and spatial characteristics of rainfall is central to water resources planning and management. However, such information is often limited in many developing countries like Malawi. In an effort to bridge the information gap, this study examined the temporal and spatial charecteristics of rainfall in Malawi. Rainfall readings from 42 stations across Malawi from 1960 to 2006 were analysed at monthly, annual and seasonal scales. The Malawian rainfall season lasts from November to April. The data were firstly subjected to quality checks through the cumulative deviations test and the Standard Normal Homogeinity Test (SNHT). Monthly distribution in a typical year, called heterogeneity, was investigated using the Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI). Further, normalized precipitation anomaly series of annual rainfall series (AR) and the PCI (APCI) were used to test for interannual rainfall variability. Spatial variability was characterised by fitting the Spatial Correlation function (SCF). The nonparametric Mann-Kendall statistic was used to investigate the temporal trends of the various rainfall variables. The results showed that 40 of the stations passed both data quality tests. For the two stations that failed, the data were adjusted using nearby stations. Annual and seasonal rainfall were found to be characterised by high spatial variation. The country mean annual rainfall was 1095 mm with mean interannual variability of 26%. The highland areas to the north and southeast of the country exhibited the highest rainfall and lowest interannual variability. Lowest rainfall coupled with high interannual variability was found in the Lower Shire basin, in the southern part of Malawi. This simillarity is the pattern of annual and seasonal rainfall should be expected because all stations had over 90% of their observed annual rainfall in the six month period between November and April. Monthly rainfall was found to be highly variable both temporally and spatially. None of the stations have stable monthly rainfall regimes (mean PCI of less than 10). Stations with the highest mean rainfall were found to have a lower interannual variability. The rainfall stations showed low spatial correlations for annual, monthly as well as seasonal timescales indicating that the data may not be suitable for spatial interpolation. However, some structure (i.e. lower correlation with distance) could be observed when aggregating the data at 50 mile intervals. The annual and seasonal rainfall series were dominated by negative trends. The spatial distribution of the trends can be described as heterogeneous, although most of the stations in the southern region have negative trends. At the monthly timescale, 37 of the stations show a negative trend with four of the stations, all in the south, showing significant negative trends. On the other hand, only 5 stations show positive trends with only one significant trend in the south. Keywords: Malawi, rainfall trends, spatial variation

An Analysis of the Relationship Between Atmospheric Heat Transport and the Position of the ITCZ in NASA NEWS products, CMIP5 GCMs, and Multiple Reanalyses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stanfield, R.; Dong, X.; Su, H.; Xi, B.; Jiang, J. H.

2016-12-01

In the past few years, studies have found a strong connection between atmospheric heat transport across the equator (AHTEQ) and the position of the ITCZ. This study investigates the seasonal, annual-mean and interannual variability of the ITCZ position and explores the relationships between the ITCZ position and inter-hemispheric energy transport in NASA NEWS products, multiple reanalyses datasets, and CMIP5 simulations. We find large discrepancies exist in the ITCZ-AHTEQ relationships in these datasets and model simulations. The components of energy fluxes are examined to identify the primary sources for the discrepancies among the datasets and models results.

Validation of China-wide interpolated daily climate variables from 1960 to 2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yuan, Wenping; Xu, Bing; Chen, Zhuoqi; Xia, Jiangzhou; Xu, Wenfang; Chen, Yang; Wu, Xiaoxu; Fu, Yang

2015-02-01

Temporally and spatially continuous meteorological variables are increasingly in demand to support many different types of applications related to climate studies. Using measurements from 600 climate stations, a thin-plate spline method was applied to generate daily gridded climate datasets for mean air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, sunshine duration, wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation over China for the period 1961-2011. A comprehensive evaluation of interpolated climate was conducted at 150 independent validation sites. The results showed superior performance for most of the estimated variables. Except for wind speed, determination coefficients ( R 2) varied from 0.65 to 0.90, and interpolations showed high consistency with observations. Most of the estimated climate variables showed relatively consistent accuracy among all seasons according to the root mean square error, R 2, and relative predictive error. The interpolated data correctly predicted the occurrence of daily precipitation at validation sites with an accuracy of 83 %. Moreover, the interpolation data successfully explained the interannual variability trend for the eight meteorological variables at most validation sites. Consistent interannual variability trends were observed at 66-95 % of the sites for the eight meteorological variables. Accuracy in distinguishing extreme weather events differed substantially among the meteorological variables. The interpolated data identified extreme events for the three temperature variables, relative humidity, and sunshine duration with an accuracy ranging from 63 to 77 %. However, for wind speed, air pressure, and precipitation, the interpolation model correctly identified only 41, 48, and 58 % of extreme events, respectively. The validation indicates that the interpolations can be applied with high confidence for the three temperatures variables, as well as relative humidity and sunshine duration based on the performance of these variables in estimating daily variations, interannual variability, and extreme events. Although longitude, latitude, and elevation data are included in the model, additional information, such as topography and cloud cover, should be integrated into the interpolation algorithm to improve performance in estimating wind speed, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation.

Interannual variations of light-absorbing particles in snow on Arctic sea ice

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Doherty, Sarah J.; Steele, Michael; Rigor, Ignatius; Warren, Stephen G.

2015-11-01

Samples of snow on sea ice were collected in springtime of the 6 years 2008-2013 in the region between Greenland, Ellesmere Island, and the North Pole (82°N -89°N, 0°W-100°W). The meltwater was passed through filters, whose spectral absorption was then measured to determine the separate contributions by black carbon (BC) and other light-absorbing impurities. The median mixing ratio of BC across all years' samples was 4 ± 3 ng g-1, and the median fraction of absorption due to non-BC absorbers was 36 ± 11%. Variances represent both spatial and interannual variability; there was no interannual trend in either variable. The absorption Ångström exponent, however, decreased with latitude, suggesting a transition from dominance by biomass-burning sources in the south to an increased influence by fossil-fuel-burning sources in the north, consistent with earlier measurements of snow in Svalbard and at the North Pole.

Historical groundwater trends in northern New England and relations with streamflow and climatic variables

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dudley, Robert W.; Hodgkins, Glenn A.

2013-01-01

Water-level trends spanning 20, 30, 40, and 50 years were tested using month-end groundwater levels in 26, 12, 10, and 3 wells in northern New England (Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont), respectively. Groundwater levels for 77 wells were used in interannual correlations with meteorological and hydrologic variables related to groundwater. Trends in the contemporary groundwater record (20 and 30 years) indicate increases (rises) or no substantial change in groundwater levels in all months for most wells throughout northern New England. The highest percentage of increasing 20-year trends was in February through March, May through August, and October through November. Forty-year trend results were mixed, whereas 50-year trends indicated increasing groundwater levels. Whereas most monthly groundwater levels correlate strongly with the previous month's level, monthly levels also correlate strongly with monthly streamflows in the same month; correlations of levels with monthly precipitation are less frequent and weaker than those with streamflow. Groundwater levels in May through August correlate strongly with annual (water year) streamflow. Correlations of groundwater levels with streamflow data and the relative richness of 50- to 100-year historical streamflow data suggest useful proxies for quantifying historical groundwater levels in light of the relatively short and fragmented groundwater data records presently available.

Role of monsoon intraseasonal oscillation and its interannual variability in simulation of seasonal mean in CFSv2

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pillai, Prasanth A.; Aher, Vaishali R.

2018-01-01

Intraseasonal oscillation (ISO), which appears as "active" and "break" spells of rainfall, is an important component of Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The present study investigates the potential of new National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climate forecast system version 2 (CFSv2) in simulating the ISO with emphasis to its interannual variability (IAV) and its possible role in the seasonal mean rainfall. The present analysis shows that the spatial distribution of CFSv2 rainfall has noticeable differences with observations in both ISO and IAV time scales. Active-break cycle of CFSv2 has similar evolution during both strong and weak years. Regardless of a reasonable El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-monsoon teleconnection in the model, the overestimated Arabian Sea (AS) sea surface temperature (SST)-convection relationship hinters the large-scale influence of ENSO over the ISM region and adjacent oceans. The ISO scale convections over AS and Bay of Bengal (BoB) have noteworthy contribution to the seasonal mean rainfall, opposing the influence of boundary forcing in these areas. At the same time, overwhelming contribution of ISO component over AS towards the seasonal mean modifies the effect of slow varying boundary forcing to large-scale summer monsoon. The results here underline that, along with the correct simulation of monsoon ISO, its IAV and relationship with the boundary forcing also need to be well captured in coupled models for the accurate simulation of seasonal mean anomalies of the monsoon and its teleconnections.

Orbit-spin coupling and the interannual variability of global-scale dust storm occurrence on Mars

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shirley, James H.; Mischna, Michael A.

2017-05-01

A new physical hypothesis predicts that a weak coupling of the orbital and rotational motions of extended bodies may give rise to a modulation of circulatory flows within their atmospheres. Driven cycles of intensification and relaxation of large-scale circulatory flows are predicted, with the phasing of these changes linked directly to the rate of change of the orbital angular momentum, dL/dt, with respect to inertial frames. We test the hypothesis that global-scale dust storms (GDS) on Mars may occur when periods of circulatory intensification (associated with positive and negative extrema of the dL/dt waveform) coincide with the southern summer dust storm season on Mars. The orbit-spin coupling hypothesis additionally predicts that the intervening 'transitional' periods, which are characterized by the disappearance and subsequent sign change of dL/dt, may be unfavorable for the occurrence of GDS, when they occur during the southern summer dust storm season. These hypotheses are strongly supported by comparisons between calculated dynamical time series of dL/dt and historic observations. All of the nine known global-scale dust storms on Mars took place during Mars years when circulatory intensification during the dust storm season is 'retrodicted' under the orbit-spin coupling hypothesis. None of the historic global-scale dust storms of our catalog occurred during transitional intervals. Orbit-spin coupling appears to play an important role in the excitation of the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation of Mars.

Impacts of Soil-aquifer Heat and Water Fluxes on Simulated Global Climate

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Krakauer, N.Y.; Puma, Michael J.; Cook, B. I.

2013-01-01

Climate models have traditionally only represented heat and water fluxes within relatively shallow soil layers, but there is increasing interest in the possible role of heat and water exchanges with the deeper subsurface. Here, we integrate an idealized 50m deep aquifer into the land surface module of the GISS ModelE general circulation model to test the influence of aquifer-soil moisture and heat exchanges on climate variables. We evaluate the impact on the modeled climate of aquifer-soil heat and water fluxes separately, as well as in combination. The addition of the aquifer to ModelE has limited impact on annual-mean climate, with little change in global mean land temperature, precipitation, or evaporation. The seasonal amplitude of deep soil temperature is strongly damped by the soil-aquifer heat flux. This not only improves the model representation of permafrost area but propagates to the surface, resulting in an increase in the seasonal amplitude of surface air temperature of >1K in the Arctic. The soil-aquifer water and heat fluxes both slightly decrease interannual variability in soil moisture and in landsurface temperature, and decrease the soil moisture memory of the land surface on seasonal to annual timescales. The results of this experiment suggest that deepening the modeled land surface, compared to modeling only a shallower soil column with a no-flux bottom boundary condition, has limited impact on mean climate but does affect seasonality and interannual persistence.

Limits on determining the skill of North Atlantic Ocean decadal predictions.

PubMed

Menary, Matthew B; Hermanson, Leon

2018-04-27

The northern North Atlantic is important globally both through its impact on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and through widespread atmospheric teleconnections. The region has been shown to be potentially predictable a decade ahead with the skill of decadal predictions assessed against reanalyses of the ocean state. Here, we show that the prediction skill in this region is strongly dependent on the choice of reanalysis used for validation, and describe the causes. Multiannual skill in key metrics such as Labrador Sea density and the AMOC depends on more than simply the choice of the prediction model. Instead, this skill is related to the similarity between the nature of interannual density variability in the underlying climate model and the chosen reanalysis. The climate models used in these decadal predictions are also used in climate projections, which raises questions about the sensitivity of these projections to the models' innate North Atlantic density variability.

Recent variability in the Atlantic water intrusion and water masses in Kongsfjorden, an Arctic fjord

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Divya, David T.; Krishnan, K. P.

2017-03-01

The present study reports high inter-annual variability in the water masses and in the intrusion of Atlantic origin waters in Kongsfjorden from 2000 to 2013 using both the historical (2000-2010 summers) and recent CTD measurements (2011-2013 summer/fall). An earlier intrusion of Atlantic Water (AW) into Kongsfjorden was observed in the contemporary years. An overall summertime subsurface warming is evident from the maximum September AW temperature in 2011 (4.8 °C), 2012 (5.8 °C) and 2013 (7 °C). The combination of a compensating surface flow to the subsurface intrusion of AW and the strong southeasterly surface winds during the peak summer, resulted in a corresponding net outflow of the surface fresh water layer from Kongsfjorden. This led to the decreased freshwater volume inside the fjord during 2013 (1 km3) compared to 2011 (3.1 km3) and 2012 (2.3 km3).

A Nonparametric Approach For Representing Interannual Dependence In Monthly Streamflow Sequences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharma, A.; Oneill, R.

The estimation of risks associated with water management plans requires generation of synthetic streamflow sequences. The mathematical algorithms used to generate these sequences at monthly time scales are found lacking in two main respects: inability in preserving dependence attributes particularly at large (seasonal to interannual) time lags; and, a poor representation of observed distributional characteristics, in partic- ular, representation of strong assymetry or multimodality in the probability density function. Proposed here is an alternative that naturally incorporates both observed de- pendence and distributional attributes in the generated sequences. Use of a nonpara- metric framework provides an effective means for representing the observed proba- bility distribution, while the use of a Svariable kernelT ensures accurate modeling of & cedil;streamflow data sets that contain a substantial number of zero flow values. A careful selection of prior flows imparts the appropriate short-term memory, while use of an SaggregateT flow variable allows representation of interannual dependence. The non- & cedil;parametric simulation model is applied to monthly flows from the Beaver River near Beaver, Utah, USA, and the Burrendong dam inflows, New South Wales, Australia. Results indicate that while the use of traditional simulation approaches leads to an inaccurate representation of dependence at long (annual and interannual) time scales, the proposed model can simulate both short and long-term dependence. As a result, the proposed model ensures a significantly improved representation of reservoir storage statistics, particularly for systems influenced by long droughts. It is important to note that the proposed method offers a simpler and better alternative to conventional dis- aggregation models as: (a) a separate annual flow series is not required, (b) stringent assumptions relating annual and monthly flows are not needed, and (c) the method does not require the specification of a "water year", instead ensuring that the sum of any sequence of flows lasting twelve months will result in the type of dependence that is observed in the historical annual flow series.

Micro-phytoplankton community structure in the coastal upwelling zone off Concepción (central Chile): Annual and inter-annual fluctuations in a highly dynamic environment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anabalón, V.; Morales, C. E.; González, H. E.; Menschel, E.; Schneider, W.; Hormazabal, S.; Valencia, L.; Escribano, R.

2016-12-01

An intensification of upwelling-favorable winds in recent decades has been detected in some of the main eastern boundary current systems, especially at higher latitudes, but the response of coastal phytoplankton communities in the Humboldt Current System (HCS) remains unknown. At higher latitudes in the HCS (35-40°S), strong seasonality in wind-driven upwelling during spring-summer coincides with an annual increase in coastal chlorophyll-a and primary production, and a dominance of micro-phytoplankton. In order to understand the effects of potential upwelling intensification on the micro-phytoplankton community in this region, annual and inter-annual variability in its structure (total and taxa-specific abundance and biomass) and its association with oceanographic fluctuations were analyzed using in situ time series data (2002-2009) from a shelf station off Concepcion (36.5°S). At the annual scale, total mean abundance and biomass, attributed to a few dominant diatom taxa, were at least one order of magnitude greater during spring-summer than autumn-winter, in association with changes in upwelling and surface salinity and temperature, whereas macro-nutrient concentrations remained relatively high all the year. At the inter-annual scale, total abundance and biomass decreased during the upwelling season of the 2006-2009 period compared with the 2002-2006 period, notably due to lower abundances of Skeletonema and Leptocylindrus, but the relative dominance of a few taxa was maintained. The 2006-2009 period was characterized by higher upwelling intensity, colder and higher salinity waters, and changes in nutrient concentrations and ratios compared with the first period. The inter-annual changes in the micro-phytoplankton community were mostly associated with changes in surface salinity and temperature (changes in upwelling intensity) but also with changes in Si/N and N/P, which relate to other land-derived processes.

A century of variation in the dependence of Greenland iceberg calving on ice sheet surface mass balance and regional climate change.

PubMed

Bigg, G R; Wei, H L; Wilton, D J; Zhao, Y; Billings, S A; Hanna, E; Kadirkamanathan, V

2014-06-08

Iceberg calving is a major component of the total mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS). A century-long record of Greenland icebergs comes from the International Ice Patrol's record of icebergs (I48N) passing latitude 48° N, off Newfoundland. I48N exhibits strong interannual variability, with a significant increase in amplitude over recent decades. In this study, we show, through a combination of nonlinear system identification and coupled ocean-iceberg modelling, that I48N's variability is predominantly caused by fluctuation in GrIS calving discharge rather than open ocean iceberg melting. We also demonstrate that the episodic variation in iceberg discharge is strongly linked to a nonlinear combination of recent changes in the surface mass balance (SMB) of the GrIS and regional atmospheric and oceanic climate variability, on the scale of the previous 1-3 years, with the dominant causal mechanism shifting between glaciological (SMB) and climatic (ocean temperature) over time. We suggest that this is a change in whether glacial run-off or under-ice melting is dominant, respectively. We also suggest that GrIS calving discharge is episodic on at least a regional scale and has recently been increasing significantly, largely as a result of west Greenland sources.

Characteristics of Lake Chad Level Variability and Links to ENSO, Precipitation, and River Discharge

PubMed Central

Demoz, Belay; Gebremariam, Sium

2014-01-01

This study used trend, correlation, and wavelet analysis to characterize Lake Chad (LC) level fluctuations, river discharge, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and precipitation regimes and their interrelationships. Linear correlation results indicate a negative association between ENSO and LC level, river discharge and precipitation. Trend analysis shows increasing precipitation in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) but decreasing LC level. The mode of interannual variability in LC level, rainfall, and ENSO analyzed using wavelet analysis is dominated by 3-4-year periods. Results show that variability in ENSO could explain only 31% and 13% of variations in LC level at Kindjeria and precipitation in the northern LCB, respectively. The wavelet transform coherency (WTC) between LC level of the southern pool at Kalom and ENSO is statistically significant at the 95% confidence level and phase-locked, implying a cause-and-effect association. These strong coherencies coincide with the La Niña years with the exception of 1997-1998 El Niño events. The WTC shows strong covariance between increasing precipitation and LC level in the northern pool at a 2- to 4-year band and 3- to 4-year band localized from 1996 to 2010. Implications for water resource planning and management are discussed. PMID:25538946

Inhibition of microbial biofuel production in drought-stressed switchgrass hydrolysate

DOE PAGES

Ong, Rebecca Garlock; Higbee, Alan; Bottoms, Scott; ...

2016-11-08

Here, interannual variability in precipitation, particularly drought, can affect lignocellulosic crop biomass yields and composition, and is expected to increase biofuel yield variability. However, the effect of precipitation on downstream fermentation processes has never been directly characterized. In order to investigate the impact of interannual climate variability on biofuel production, corn stover and switchgrass were collected during 3 years with significantly different precipitation profiles, representing a major drought year (2012) and 2 years with average precipitation for the entire season (2010 and 2013). All feedstocks were AFEX (ammonia fiber expansion)-pretreated, enzymatically hydrolyzed, and the hydrolysates separately fermented using xylose-utilizing strainsmore » of Saccharomyces cerevisiae and Zymomonas mobilis. As a result, a chemical genomics approach was also used to evaluate the growth of yeast mutants in the hydrolysates.« less

Seasonal, interannual and long-term variabilities and tendencies of water vapour in the upper stratosphere and mesospheric region over tropics (30°N-30°S)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nath, Oindrila; Sridharan, S.; Naidu, C. V.

2018-01-01

Tropical water vapour volume mixing ratio (WVMR) data for October 2004-September 2015 obtained from the Microwave Limb Sounder are used to study its long-term variabilities and tendencies in the height region 12.1-0.002 hPa. Above 0.01 hPa, the WVMR shows minimum March-May and September-November (∼0.7-0.8 ppmv) and maximum during June-August. It shows a large interannual variability at 31-64 km. The results from multivariate regression analysis show an increasing trend with maximum value of ∼0.045 ppmv/yr at 1.21-0.41 hPa. It shows a significant negative solar cycle response at mesospheric heights.

Can GRACE Explain Some of the Main Interannual Polar Motion Signatures?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adhikari, S.; Ivins, E. R.; Larour, E. Y.

2016-12-01

GRACE has provided a series of monthly solutions for water mass transport that now span a 14-year period. A natural question to ask is how much of this mass transport information might be used to reconstruct, theoretically, the non-tidal and non-Chandlerian polar motion at interannual time scales. Reconstruction of the pole position at interannual time scales since 2002 has been performed by Chen et al. (2013, GRL) and Adhikari and Ivins (2016, Science Advances). (The main feature of polar motion that has been evolving since the mid 1990's is the increasing dominance of Greenland ice mass loss.) Here we discuss this reconstruction and the level of error that occurs because of missing information about the spherical harmonic degree 1 and 2 terms and the lack of terms associated with angular momentum transfer in the Louiville equations. Using GRACE observations and complementary solutions of self-attraction/loading problem on an elastically compressible rotating earth, we show that ice mass losses from polar ice sheets, and when combined with changes in continental hydrology, explain nearly the entire amplitude (83±23%) and mean directional shift (within 5.9±7.6°) of recently observed eastward polar motion. We also show that decadal scale pole variations are directly linked to global changes in continental hydrology. The energy sources for such motions are likely to be associated with decadal scale ocean and atmospheric oscillations that also drive 20th century continental wet-dry variability. Interannual variability in pole position, therefore, offers a tool for assessing past stability of our climate, and for the future, now faced with an increased intensity in the water cycle and more vulnerable to ice sheet instability. Figure caption: Observed and reconstructed mean annual pole positions with respect to the 2003-2015 mean position. Blue error band is associated with the reconstructed solution; red signifies additional errors that are related to uncertainty in the long-term linear trend. Notice the interannual variability during the GRACE period.

The Angola Low: relationship with southern African rainfall and ENSO

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crétat, Julien; Pohl, Benjamin; Dieppois, Bastien; Berthou, Ségolène; Pergaud, Julien

2018-05-01

The main states of the Angola Low (AL) are identified using clustering analysis applied to daily anomalous patterns of 700-hPa wind vorticity over Angola and adjacent countries from November to March for the 1980/81-2014/15 period. At the daily timescale, we examine the extent to which the main states of the AL modulate daily rainfall over southern Africa. At the interannual timescale, we assess both the relationship between the occurrence of these AL states and El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO) and the role of the AL in explaining ENSO's failure in driving southern African rainfall at times. Three reanalyses are considered to account for uncertainties induced by the scarcity of data available for assimilation over southern Africa. Three preferential states of the Angola Low are identified: AL state close to its seasonal climatology with slight zonal displacements, anomalously weak AL state and anomalously strong AL state with meridional displacements. These different states all significantly modulate daily southern African rainfall. Near-climatological AL state promotes wet rainfall anomalies over eastern subtropical southern Africa and dry rainfall anomalies over its western part. A slight westward shift in the near-climatological position of the AL leads to reversed zonal gradient in rainfall. The remaining regimes significantly modulate the meridional gradient in southern African rainfall. Anomalously weak and anomalously northward AL states promote wet rainfall anomalies over tropical southern Africa and dry rainfall anomalies over subtropical southern Africa. The reverse prevails for anomalously southward AL. At the interannual timescale, ENSO significantly modulates the seasonal occurrence of most AL states in the three reanalyses. Anomalously weak and southward AL states are more strongly correlated with regional rainfall than ENSO in all reanalyses, suggesting that accounting for AL variability may improve seasonal forecasts. Case study analysis of the major 1982/83 and 1997/98 El Niño events suggests that the weak rainfall anomalies and strong seasonal AL in 1997/98 may result from counteracting effects between ENSO and Indian Ocean coupled modes of variability.

Zonal structure and variability of the Western Pacific dynamic warm pool edge in CMIP5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brown, Jaclyn N.; Langlais, Clothilde; Maes, Christophe

2014-06-01

The equatorial edge of the Western Pacific Warm Pool is operationally identified by one isotherm ranging between 28° and 29 °C, chosen to align with the interannual variability of strong zonal salinity gradients and the convergence of zonal ocean currents. The simulation of this edge is examined in 19 models from the World Climate Research Program Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the historical period from 1950 to 2000. The dynamic warm pool edge (DWPE), where the zonal currents converge, is difficult to determine from limited observations and biased models. A new analysis technique is introduced where a proxy for DWPE is determined by the isotherm that most closely correlates with the movements of the strong salinity gradient. It can therefore be a different isotherm in each model. The DWPE is simulated much closer to observations than if a direct temperature-only comparison is made. Aspects of the DWPE remain difficult for coupled models to simulate including the mean longitude, the interannual excursions, and the zonal convergence of ocean currents. Some models have only very weak salinity gradients trapped to the western side of the basin making it difficult to even identify a DWPE. The model's DWPE are generally 1-2 °C cooler than observed. In line with theory, the magnitude of the zonal migrations of the DWPE are strongly related to the amplitudes of the Nino3.4 SST index. Nevertheless, a better simulation of the mean location of the DWPE does not necessarily improve the amplitude of a model's ENSO. It is also found that in a few models (CSIROMk3.6, inmcm and inmcm4-esm) the warm pool displacements result from a net heating or cooling rather than a zonal advection of warm water. The simulation of the DWPE has implications for ENSO dynamics when considering ENSO paradigms such as the delayed action oscillator mechanism, the Advective-Reflective oscillator, and the zonal-advective feedback. These are also discussed in the context of the CMIP5 simulations.

Tropical Forcing of the Summer East Atlantic Pattern

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wulff, C. Ole; Greatbatch, Richard J.; Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Gollan, Gereon; Hansen, Felicitas

2017-11-01

The Summer East Atlantic (SEA) mode is the second dominant mode of summer low-frequency variability in the Euro-Atlantic region. Using reanalysis data, we show that SEA-related circulation anomalies significantly influence temperatures and precipitation over Europe. We present evidence that part of the interannual SEA variability is forced by diabatic heating anomalies of opposing signs in the tropical Pacific and Caribbean that induce an extratropical Rossby wave train. This precipitation dipole is related to SST anomalies characteristic of the developing El Niño-Southern Oscillation phases. Seasonal hindcast experiments forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) exhibit skill at capturing the interannual SEA variability corroborating the proposed mechanism and highlighting the possibility for improved prediction of boreal summer variability. Our results indicate that tropical forcing of the SEA likely played a role in the dynamics of the 2015 European heat wave.

Climate effects on phytoplankton floral composition in Chesapeake Bay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harding, L. W.; Adolf, J. E.; Mallonee, M. E.; Miller, W. D.; Gallegos, C. L.; Perry, E. S.; Johnson, J. M.; Sellner, K. G.; Paerl, H. W.

2015-09-01

Long-term data on floral composition of phytoplankton are presented to document seasonal and inter-annual variability in Chesapeake Bay related to climate effects on hydrology. Source data consist of the abundances of major taxonomic groups of phytoplankton derived from algal photopigments (1995-2004) and cell counts (1985-2007). Algal photopigments were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and analyzed using the software CHEMTAX to determine the proportions of chlorophyll-a (chl-a) in major taxonomic groups. Cell counts determined microscopically provided species identifications, enumeration, and dimensions used to obtain proportions of cell volume (CV), plasma volume (PV), and carbon (C) in the same taxonomic groups. We drew upon these two independent data sets to take advantage of the unique strengths of each method, using comparable quantitative measures to express floral composition for the main stem bay. Spatial and temporal variability of floral composition was quantified using data aggregated by season, year, and salinity zone. Both time-series were sufficiently long to encompass the drought-flood cycle with commensurate effects on inputs of freshwater and solutes. Diatoms emerged as the predominant taxonomic group, with significant contributions by dinoflagellates, cryptophytes, and cyanobacteria, depending on salinity zone and season. Our analyses revealed increased abundance of diatoms in wet years compared to long-term average (LTA) or dry years. Results are presented in the context of long-term nutrient over-enrichment of the bay, punctuated by inter-annual variability of freshwater flow that strongly affects nutrient loading, chl-a, and floral composition. Statistical analyses generated flow-adjusted diatom abundance and showed significant trends late in the time series, suggesting current and future decreases of nutrient inputs may lead to a reduction of the proportion of biomass comprised by diatoms in an increasingly diverse flora.

Interannual variability in the magnitude and timing of the spring bloom in the Oyashio region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Okamoto, Suguru; Hirawake, Toru; Saitoh, Sei-Ichi

2010-09-01

Inter-annual variability in the magnitude and timing of the spring bloom was investigated for the Oyashio region (40 °-48 °N, 143 °E-152 °E) using 10 years (from 1998 to 2007) of satellite ocean-color data. Geostrophic currents were examined using satellite altimeter data. Early spring blooms (>1.5 mg m -3) occurred in early April 2001 and late March 2002. The 2001 bloom continued for one month. Late blooms occurred from mid-May 1999, early June 2004 and late April 2006, continuing for about 1 month, 8 days and 16 days, respectively. A strong bloom (4.7 mg m -3) also occurred in mid-April 1998; however, it terminated in early May. We classified the Oyashio region based on the pattern of temporal variation of Chl- a concentr ation from March to June. The spatio-temporal variability in Chl- a concentr ation during spring was different among years. The area where Chl- a concentr ation was highest in April was more extensive in 2001, 2002 and 2006 than usual. In 1999, the area where Chl- a concentr ation was highest in May was the widest among the 10 years. Mesoscale eddies and currents with high velocity were frequently observed in the area of high Chl- a concentr ation east of Hokkaido, propagating Coastal Oyashio Water of low salinity and low density into the oceanic region. That strengthened stratification in the surface layer. We suggest that this seaward transfer of coastal water could be one of the important factors for phytoplankton distribution in two ways: (1) horizontal advection of water with high Chl- a concentr ation and (2) enhancement of stratification in the oceanic region.

Climatology and inter-annual variability of the polar mesospheric winds inferred from meteor radar observations over Sodankylä (67N, 26E) during solar cycle 24

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lukianova, Renata; Kozlovsky, Alexander; Lester, Mark

2018-06-01

The inter-annual variability, climatological mean wind and tide fields in the northern polar mesosphere/lower thermosphere region of 82-98 km height are studied using observations by the meteor radar which has operated continuously during solar cycle 24 (from December 2008 onward) at the Sodankylä Geophysical Observatory (67N, 26E). Summer mean zonal winds are characterized by westward flow, up to 25 m/s, at lower heights and eastward flow, up to 30 m/s, at upper heights. In the winter an eastward flow, up to 10 m/s, dominates at all heights. The meridional winds are characterized by a relatively weak poleward flow (few m/s) in the winter and equatorward flow in the summer, with a jet core (∼15 m/s) located slightly below 90 km. These systematically varying winds are dominated by the semidiurnal tides. The largest amplitudes, up to 30 m/s, are observed at higher altitudes in winter and a secondary maximum is seen in August-September. The diurnal tides are almost a factor of two weaker and peak in summer. The variability of individual years is dominated by the winter perturbations. During the period of observations major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW) occurred in January 2009 and 2013. During these events the wind fields were strongly modified. The lowest altitude eastward winds maximized up to 25 m/s, that is by more twice that of the non-SSW years. The poleward flow considerably increases (up 10 m/s) and extends from the lower heights throughout the whole altitude range. The annual pattern in temperature at ∼90 km height over Sodankyla consists of warm winters (up to 200 K) and cold summers (∼120 K).

Interannual variability in equatorial Kelvin waves in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, and relation to the background equatorial wind

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suzuki, J.; Nishi, N.; Fujiwara, M.; Yoneyama, K.

2016-12-01

We investigated the influence of the background wind regime on interannual variability in equatorial Kelvin waves in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis data. We focused on variability in the number of Kelvin wave events as a function of the background westerly wind, given by the zonal wind index (ZWI) in the equatorial western hemisphere. The ZWI measures the strength of the upper branch of the Walker circulation in the western hemisphere. Although the ZWI is well correlated with the sea surface temperature in the Niño-3.4 region, nearly half of the peaks of positive (negative) ZWI cases occurred outside of the typical La Niña (El Niño) season (December to February), respectively. In the positive ZWI (stronger westerly) cases, both convective activity over the western Pacific and extratropical Rossby waves were enhanced. Kelvin waves over the western hemisphere appeared frequently at 200 hPa but barely reached 100 hPa due to the strong westerly wind under this level. In the negative ZWI period, on the other hand, the number of Kelvin waves at 200 hPa decreased due to the weaker convection; Kelvin waves reached 100 hPa and propagated even farther upward. We also investigated the relationship between the ZWI and the phase speed of Kelvin waves. Kelvin waves with relatively slow phase speeds are found in negative ZWI cases, but are not found in positive ZWI cases due to the westerly background wind below the altitudes where Kelvin waves commonly propagate.

Spectral Kernel Approach to Study Radiative Response of Climate Variables and Interannual Variability of Reflected Solar Spectrum

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jin, Zhonghai; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Loukachine, Constantin; Charlock, Thomas P.; Young, David; Noeel, Stefan

2011-01-01

The radiative kernel approach provides a simple way to separate the radiative response to different climate parameters and to decompose the feedback into radiative and climate response components. Using CERES/MODIS/Geostationary data, we calculated and analyzed the solar spectral reflectance kernels for various climate parameters on zonal, regional, and global spatial scales. The kernel linearity is tested. Errors in the kernel due to nonlinearity can vary strongly depending on climate parameter, wavelength, surface, and solar elevation; they are large in some absorption bands for some parameters but are negligible in most conditions. The spectral kernels are used to calculate the radiative responses to different climate parameter changes in different latitudes. The results show that the radiative response in high latitudes is sensitive to the coverage of snow and sea ice. The radiative response in low latitudes is contributed mainly by cloud property changes, especially cloud fraction and optical depth. The large cloud height effect is confined to absorption bands, while the cloud particle size effect is found mainly in the near infrared. The kernel approach, which is based on calculations using CERES retrievals, is then tested by direct comparison with spectral measurements from Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Cartography (SCIAMACHY) (a different instrument on a different spacecraft). The monthly mean interannual variability of spectral reflectance based on the kernel technique is consistent with satellite observations over the ocean, but not over land, where both model and data have large uncertainty. RMS errors in kernel ]derived monthly global mean reflectance over the ocean compared to observations are about 0.001, and the sampling error is likely a major component.

Description and assessment of regional sea-level trends and variability from altimetry and tide gauges at the northern Australian coast

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gharineiat, Zahra; Deng, Xiaoli

2018-05-01

This paper aims at providing a descriptive view of the low-frequency sea-level changes around the northern Australian coastline. Twenty years of sea-level observations from multi-mission satellite altimetry and tide gauges are used to characterize sea-level trends and inter-annual variability over the study region. The results show that the interannual sea-level fingerprint in the northern Australian coastline is closely related to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) events, with the greatest influence on the Gulf Carpentaria, Arafura Sea, and the Timor Sea. The basin average of 14 tide-gauge time series is in strong agreement with the basin average of the altimeter data, with a root mean square difference of 18 mm and a correlation coefficient of 0.95. The rate of the sea-level trend over the altimetry period (6.3 ± 1.4 mm/yr) estimated from tide gauges is slightly higher than that (6.1 ± 1.3 mm/yr) from altimetry in the time interval 1993-2013, which can vary with the length of the time interval. Here we provide new insights into examining the significance of sea-level trends by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test. This test is applied to assess if the trends are significant (upward or downward). Apart from a positive rate of sea-level trends are not statistically significant in this region due to the effects of natural variability. The findings suggest that altimetric trends are not significant along the coasts and some parts of the Gulf Carpentaria (14°S-8°S), where geophysical corrections (e.g., ocean tides) cannot be estimated accurately and altimeter measurements are contaminated by reflections from the land.

Annual and Spatial Variation of the Kelp Forest Fish Assemblage at San Nicolas Island, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cowen, R.J.; Bodkin, James L.

1993-01-01

The kelp forest fishes of San Nicolas Island, California were studied from 1981-1986 to examine the causes of among-site and among-year variation in the fish assemblages. Fish counts and seven physical and biological variables were recorded at six sites around the island every spring and fall. Over the study period, a total of 45 fish species from 18 families were recorded, though members of nive families dominated at all sites. Among-site variation was considereable with two sites on the south side of the island having two to four times as many non-schooling fishes as the other four sites. Three variables, based on stepwise multiple regression techniques, were important predictors of site-specific fish abundance: 1) vertical relief; 2) sand cover and 3) understory algal cover. The total number of fishes varied interannually by a factor of three. Due to recruitment occuring each spring, there was a strong seasonal component to the variation in fish abundance. The extent of seasonal and interannual variaton of fish abundance is an indication of the variable nature of recruitment to this area. Over the 6 yr period, there were three distinct groupings of fish assemblages correspondong to pre- (Fall 1981 - Fall 1982), during spring (Spring 1983 - Spring 1984) and post El Nino (Fall 1984 - Fall 1986) sampling dates. During El Nino sampling period, there was considerable recruitment of southern affinity fish species, increasing both the abundance and diversity of the fish assemblages. Large-scale oceanographic processes, coupled with site-specific features of the reef habitat, produce a moderately diverse, though relatively abundant fish fauna at San Nicolas Island.

Interannual variability of a precipitation gradient along the semi-arid catchment areas for the metropolitan region of Lima- Peru in relation to atmospheric circulation at the mesoscale

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Otto, Marco; Seidel, Jochen; Trachte, Katja

2013-04-01

The main moisture source for precipitation on the western slopes of the Central Andes is located east of the mountain range known as the Amazon basin. However, the Andean mountains, which reach up to 6000 m a.s.l., strongly influence climatic conditions along the Pacific coastline of South America as a climatic barrier for the low-level tropospheric flow and associated moisture transport from the Amazon basin. Additional, large scale subsidence caused by the South Pacific High inhabits convective rainfall at the Pacific coast where large metropolitan areas such as the Peruvian capital Lima are located. Two contrasts in precipitation can be found while crossing the Andean mountains from West to East. On the Pacific coast, at the location of the metropolitan area of Lima, no more than 10 mm mean annual rainfall occurs. In contrast, up to 1000 mm mean annual rainfall occur only 100 km east of Lima within the upper region (4000 m .a.s.l.) of the Western Cordillera. The transition takes place along the western slopes of the Western Cordillera and is characterised by a strong precipitation gradient. Here, catchment areas are located that provide most of the water resources needed to sustain an urban area of approximately 10 million people. This study investigates the interannual variability of the precipitation gradient between 1998 and 2012. The analysis is based on daily precipitation data of 22 rain gauge station, daily rainfall data of the Tropical Rainfall Mission (TRMM 3B42) at 0.25 degrees and reanalysis data at 36 km spatial resolution at the mesoscale. The reanalysis data was produced using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Station data was provided by the Peruvian weather service during the project "Sustainable Water and Wastewater Management in Urban Growth Centres Coping with Climate Change - Concepts for Lima Metropolitana (Peru) (LiWa)", which is financed by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). We are interested in the following questions. How is the interannual variability of the observed precipitation gradient related to atmospheric circulation east (Amazon basin) and west (south-east Pacific) of the study region? If those relations are quantifiable, are there any forecast potentials for the characteristics of the precipitation gradient during the raining season? The results of the study provide valuable information needed to understand the generation of rainfall in the frame of a case study for the largest metropolitan area that is located at the arid Pacific coast of Peru. This information may also be useful for local managers in order to optimise water resource management and land use strategies.

Interannual variability in CO2 and CH4 exchange in a brackish tidal marsh in Northern California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knox, S. H.; Windham-Myers, L.; Anderson, F. E.; Bergamaschi, B. A.

2017-12-01

Carbon (C) cycling in coastal wetlands is difficult to measure and model due to extremely dynamic atmospheric and hydrologic fluxes, as well as sensitivities to dynamic land- and ocean-based drivers. To date, few studies have begun continuous measurements of net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE) in these systems, and as such our understanding of the key drivers of NEE in coastal wetlands remain poorly understood. Recent eddy covariance measurements of NEE in these environments show considerable variability both within and across sites, with daily CO2 uptake and annual net CO2 budgets varying by nearly an order of magnitude between years and across locations. Furthermore, measurements of CH4 fluxes in these systems are even more limited, despite the potential for CH4 emissions from brackish and freshwater coastal wetlands. Here we present 3 years of near-continuous eddy covariance measurements of CO2 and CH4 fluxes from a brackish tidal marsh in Northern California and explore the drivers of interannual variability in CO2 and CH4 exchange. CO2 fluxes showed significant interannual variability; net CO2 uptake was near-zero in 2014 (6 ± 26 g C-CO2 m-2 yr-1), while much greater uptake was observed in 2015 and 2016 (209 ± 27 g C- CO2 m-2 yr-1 and 243 ± 26 g C-CO2 m-2 yr-1, respectively). Conversely, annual CH4 emissions were small and consistent across years, with the wetland emitting on average 1 ± 0.1 g C-CH4 m-2 yr-1. With respect to the net atmospheric GHG budget (assuming a sustained global warming potential (SGWP) of 45, expressed in units of CO2 equivalents), the wetland was near neutral in 2014, but a net GHG sink of 706 ± 105 g CO2 eq m-2 yr-1 and 836 ± 83 g CO2 eq m-2 yr-1 in 2015 and 2016, respectively. The large interannual variability in CO2 exchange was driven by notable year-to-year differences in temperature and precipitation as California experienced a severe drought and record high temperatures from 2012 to 2015. The large interannual variability in NEE and GHG budgets observed in this study emphasizes the need for long-term measurements of C fluxes in coastal wetlands, particularly under changing climatic conditions.

Spatial variability and trends of seasonal snowmelt processes over Antarctic sea ice observed by satellite scatterometers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arndt, S.; Haas, C.

2017-12-01

Snow is one of the key drivers determining the seasonal energy and mass budgets of sea ice in the Southern Ocean. Here, we analyze radar backscatter time series from the European Remote Sensing Satellites (ERS)-1 and-2 scatterometers, from the Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT), and from the Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) in order to observe the regional and inter-annual variability of Antarctic snowmelt processes from 1992 to 2014. On perennial ice, seasonal backscatter changes show two different snowmelt stages: A weak backscatter rise indicating the initial warming and metamorphosis of the snowpack (pre-melt), followed by a rapid rise indicating the onset of internal snowmelt and thaw-freeze cycles (snowmelt). In contrast, similar seasonal backscatter cycles are absent on seasonal ice, preventing the periodic retrieval of spring/summer transitions. This may be due to the dominance of ice bottom melt over snowmelt, leading to flooding and ice disintegration before strong snowmelt sets in. Resulting snowmelt onset dates on perennial sea ice show the expected latitudinal gradient from early melt onsets (mid-November) in the northern Weddell Sea towards late (end-December) or even absent snowmelt conditions further south. This result is likely related to seasonal variations in solar shortwave radiation (absorption). In addition, observations with different microwave frequencies allow to detect changing snow properties at different depths. We show that short wavelengths of passive microwave observations indicate earlier pre-melt and snowmelt onset dates than longer wavelength scatterometer observations, in response to earlier warming of upper snow layers compared to lower snow layers. Similarly, pre-melt and snowmelt onset dates retrieved from Ku-Band radars were earlier by an average of 11 and 23 days, respectively, than those retrieved from C-Band. This time difference was used to correct melt onset dates retrieved from Ku-Band to compile a consistent time series from 1992 to 2014. The subsequent regression analysis showed that no significant temporal trend in the retrieved snowmelt onset dates can be observed, but strong inter-annual variability. This absence of any notable changes in snowmelt behavior is in line with the small observed temporal changes of the Antarctic sea ice cover and atmospheric warming

Seasonal and annual trends in forage fish mercury concentrations, San Francisco Bay.

PubMed

Greenfield, Ben K; Melwani, Aroon R; Allen, Rachel M; Slotton, Darell G; Ayers, Shaun M; Harrold, Katherine H; Ridolfi, Katherine; Jahn, Andrew; Grenier, J Letitia; Sandheinrich, Mark B

2013-02-01

San Francisco Bay is contaminated by mercury (Hg) due to historic and ongoing sources, and has elevated Hg concentrations throughout the aquatic food web. We monitored Hg in forage fish to indicate seasonal and interannual variations and trends. Interannual variation and long-term trends were determined by monitoring Hg bioaccumulation during September-November, for topsmelt (Atherinops affinis) and Mississippi silverside (Menidia audens) at six sites, over six years (2005 to 2010). Seasonal variation was characterized for arrow goby (Clevelandia ios) at one site, topsmelt at six sites, and Mississippi silverside at nine sites. Arrow goby exhibited a consistent seasonal pattern from 2008 to 2010, with lowest concentrations observed in late spring, and highest concentrations in late summer or early fall. In contrast, topsmelt concentrations tended to peak in late winter or early spring and silverside seasonal fluctuations varied among sites. The seasonal patterns may relate to seasonal shifts in net MeHg production in the contrasting habitats of the species. Topsmelt exhibited an increase in Alviso Slough from 2005 to 2010, possibly related to recent hypoxia in that site. Otherwise, directional trends for Hg in forage fish were not observed. For topsmelt and silverside, the variability explained by year was relatively low compared to sampling station, suggesting that interannual variation is not a strong influence on Hg concentrations. Although fish Hg has shown long-term declines in some ecosystems around the world, San Francisco Bay forage fish did not decline over the six-year monitoring period examined. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of regional ventilation changes on surface particulate matter concentrations in South Korea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, H. C.; Stein, A. F.; Chai, T.; Ngan, F.; Kim, B. U.; Jin, C. S.; Hong, S. Y.; Park, R.; Son, S. W.; Bae, C.; Bae, M.; Song, C. K.; Kim, S.

2017-12-01

The recent increase in surface particulate matter (PM) concentrations in South Korea is intriguing due to its disagreement with current intensive emission reduction efforts. The long-term trend of surface PM concentrations in South Korea declined in the 2000s, but since 2012 its concentrations have tended to increase, resulting in frequent severe haze events in the region. This study demonstrates that the interannual variation of surface PM concentrations in South Korea is not only affected by changes in local or regional emission sources, but also closely linked with the interannual variations in regional ventilation. Using EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality modeling system, a 12-year (2004-2015) regional air quality simulation was conducted to assess the impact of the meteorological conditions under constant anthropogenic emissions. In addition, NOAA HYSPLIT dispersion model was utilized to estimate the strength of regional ventilation that dissipates local pollutions. Simulated PM concentrations show a strong negative correlation (i.e. R=-0.86) with regional wind speed, implying that reduced regional ventilation is likely associated with more stagnant conditions that cause severe pollutant episodes in South Korea. We conclude that the current PM concentration trend in South Korea is a combination of long-term decline by emission control efforts and short-term fluctuations in regional wind speed interannual variability. When the meteorology-driven variations are removed, PM concentrations in South Korea have declined continuously even after 2012, with -1.45±0.12, -1.41±0.16, and -1.09±0.16 mg/m3 per year in Seoul, the Seoul Metropolitan Area, and South Korea, respectively.

Evaluation of terrestrial carbon cycle models with atmospheric CO2 measurements: Results from transient simulations considering increasing CO2, climate, and land-use effects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dargaville, R.J.; Heimann, Martin; McGuire, A.D.; Prentice, I.C.; Kicklighter, D.W.; Joos, F.; Clein, Joy S.; Esser, G.; Foley, J.; Kaplan, J.; Meier, R.A.; Melillo, J.M.; Moore, B.; Ramankutty, N.; Reichenau, T.; Schloss, A.; Sitch, S.; Tian, H.; Williams, L.J.; Wittenberg, U.

2002-01-01

An atmospheric transport model and observations of atmospheric CO2 are used to evaluate the performance of four Terrestrial Carbon Models (TCMs) in simulating the seasonal dynamics and interannual variability of atmospheric CO2 between 1980 and 1991. The TCMs were forced with time varying atmospheric CO2 concentrations, climate, and land use to simulate the net exchange of carbon between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere. The monthly surface CO2 fluxes from the TCMs were used to drive the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry and the simulated seasonal cycles and concentration anomalies are compared with observations from several stations in the CMDL network. The TCMs underestimate the amplitude of the seasonal cycle and tend to simulate too early an uptake of CO2 during the spring by approximately one to two months. The model fluxes show an increase in amplitude as a result of land-use change, but that pattern is not so evident in the simulated atmospheric amplitudes, and the different models suggest different causes for the amplitude increase (i.e., CO2 fertilization, climate variability or land use change). The comparison of the modeled concentration anomalies with the observed anomalies indicates that either the TCMs underestimate interannual variability in the exchange of CO2 between the terrestrial biosphere and the atmosphere, or that either the variability in the ocean fluxes or the atmospheric transport may be key factors in the atmospheric interannual variability.

The impact of inter-annual variability of annual cycle on long-term persistence of surface air temperature in long historical records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deng, Qimin; Nian, Da; Fu, Zuntao

2018-02-01

Previous studies in the literature show that the annual cycle of surface air temperature (SAT) is changing in both amplitude and phase, and the SAT departures from the annual cycle are long-term correlated. However, the classical definition of temperature anomalies is based on the assumption that the annual cycle is constant, which contradicts the fact of changing annual cycle. How to quantify the impact of the changing annual cycle on the long-term correlation of temperature anomaly variability still remains open. In this paper, a recently developed data adaptive analysis tool, the nonlinear mode decomposition (NMD), is used to extract and remove time-varying annual cycle to reach the new defined temperature anomalies in which time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been considered. By means of detrended fluctuation analysis, the impact induced by inter-annual variability from the time-dependent amplitude of annual cycle has been quantified on the estimation of long-term correlation of long historical temperature anomalies in Europe. The results show that the classical climatology annual cycle is supposed to lack inter-annual fluctuation which will lead to a maximum artificial deviation centering around 600 days. This maximum artificial deviation is crucial to defining the scaling range and estimating the long-term persistence exponent accurately. Selecting different scaling range could lead to an overestimation or underestimation of the long-term persistence exponent. By using NMD method to extract the inter-annual fluctuations of annual cycle, this artificial crossover can be weakened to extend a wider scaling range with fewer uncertainties.

The Interannual Stability of Cumulative Frequency Distributions for Convective System Size and Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mohr, Karen I.; Molinari, John; Thorncroft, Chris

2009-01-01

The characteristics of convective system populations in West Africa and the western Pacific tropical cyclone basin were analyzed to investigate whether interannual variability in convective activity in tropical continental and oceanic environments is driven by variations in the number of events during the wet season or by favoring large and/or intense convective systems. Convective systems were defined from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data as a cluster of pixels with an 85-GHz polarization-corrected brightness temperature below 255 K and with an area of at least 64 square kilometers. The study database consisted of convective systems in West Africa from May to September 1998-2007, and in the western Pacific from May to November 1998-2007. Annual cumulative frequency distributions for system minimum brightness temperature and system area were constructed for both regions. For both regions, there were no statistically significant differences between the annual curves for system minimum brightness temperature. There were two groups of system area curves, split by the TRMM altitude boost in 2001. Within each set, there was no statistically significant interannual variability. Subsetting the database revealed some sensitivity in distribution shape to the size of the sampling area, the length of the sample period, and the climate zone. From a regional perspective, the stability of the cumulative frequency distributions implied that the probability that a convective system would attain a particular size or intensity does not change interannually. Variability in the number of convective events appeared to be more important in determining whether a year is either wetter or drier than normal.

Statistical modeling of interannual shoreline change driven by North Atlantic climate variability spanning 2000-2014 in the Bay of Biscay

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Robinet, A.; Castelle, B.; Idier, D.; Le Cozannet, G.; Déqué, M.; Charles, E.

2016-12-01

Modeling studies addressing daily to interannual coastal evolution typically relate shoreline change with waves, currents and sediment transport through complex processes and feedbacks. For wave-dominated environments, the main driver (waves) is controlled by the regional atmospheric circulation. Here a simple weather regime-driven shoreline model is developed for a 15-year shoreline dataset (2000-2014) collected at Truc Vert beach, Bay of Biscay, SW France. In all, 16 weather regimes (four per season) are considered. The centroids and occurrences are computed using the ERA-40 and ERA-Interim reanalyses, applying k-means and EOF methods to the anomalies of the 500-hPa geopotential height over the North Atlantic Basin. The weather regime-driven shoreline model explains 70% of the observed interannual shoreline variability. The application of a proven wave-driven equilibrium shoreline model to the same period shows that both models have similar skills at the interannual scale. Relation between the weather regimes and the wave climate in the Bay of Biscay is investigated and the primary weather regimes impacting shoreline change are identified. For instance, the winter zonal regime characterized by a strengthening of the pressure gradient between the Iceland low and the Azores high is associated with high-energy wave conditions and is found to drive an increase in the shoreline erosion rate. The study demonstrates the predictability of interannual shoreline change from a limited number of weather regimes, which opens new perspectives for shoreline change modeling and encourages long-term shoreline monitoring programs.

Interannual and seasonal variability of winter-spring cohort of neon flying squid abundance in the Northwest Pacific Ocean during 1995-2011

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Wei; Chen, Xinjun; Yi, Qian

2016-06-01

The neon flying squid, Ommastrephes bartramii, is a species of economically important cephalopod in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. Its short lifespan increases the susceptibility of the distribution and abundance to the direct impact of the environmental conditions. Based on the generalized linear model (GLM) and generalized additive model (GAM), the commercial fishery data from the Chinese squid-jigging fleets during 1995 to 2011 were used to examine the interannual and seasonal variability in the abundance of O. bartramii, and to evaluate the influences of variables on the abundance (catch per unit effort, CPUE). The results from GLM suggested that year, month, latitude, sea surface temperature (SST), mixed layer depth (MLD), and the interaction term ( SST×MLD) were significant factors. The optimal model based on GAM included all the six significant variables and could explain 42.43% of the variance in nominal CPUE. The importance of the six variables was ranked by decreasing magnitude: year, month, latitude, SST, MLD and SST×MLD. The squid was mainly distributed in the waters between 40°N and 44°N in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. The optimal ranges of SST and MLD were from 14 to 20°C and from 10 to 30 m, respectively. The squid abundance greatly fluctuated from 1995 to 2011. The CPUE was low during 1995-2002 and high during 2003-2008. Furthermore, the squid abundance was typically high in August. The interannual and seasonal variabilities in the squid abundance were associated with the variations of marine environmental conditions and the life history characteristics of squid.

Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979-2012: impact of climate and land-use changes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J.-F.; Bauwens, M.; De Smedt, I.; Van Roozendael, M.; Guenther, A.; Wild, M.; Xia, X.

2014-05-01

Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5°×0.5° resolution using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation, annual positive flux trends of 0.2% and 0.52% throughout the entire period are found in Asia and China, respectively, related to a positive trend in temperature and solar radiation. The impact of oil palm expansion in Indonesia and Malaysia is to enhance the trends over that region, e.g., from 1.17% to 1.5% in 1979-2005 in Malaysia. A negative emission trend is derived in India (-0.4%), owing to the negative trend in solar radiation data associated with the strong dimming effect likely due to increasing aerosol loadings. The bottom-up emissions are compared to field campaign measurements in Borneo and South China and further evaluated against top-down isoprene emission estimates constrained by GOME-2/MetOp-A formaldehyde columns through 2007-2012. The satellite-based estimates appear to support our assumptions, and confirm the lower emission rate in tropical forests of Indonesia and Malaysia. Additional flux measurements are clearly needed to characterize the spatial variability of emission factors better. Finally, a decreasing trend in the inferred top-down Chinese emissions since 2007 is in line with recorded cooling in China after that year, thus suggesting that the satellite HCHO columns are able to capture climate-induced changes in emissions.

Isoprene emissions over Asia 1979–2012: impact of climate and land-use changes

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Stavrakou, T.; Müller, J. -F.; Bauwens, M.

2014-01-01

Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979–2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5°×0.5° resolution using the MEGAN–MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporatesmore » (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years. Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation, annual positive flux trends of 0.2% and 0.52% throughout the entire period are found in Asia and China, respectively, related to a positive trend in temperature and solar radiation. The impact of oil palm expansion in Indonesia and Malaysia is to enhance the trends over that region, e.g., from 1.17% to 1.5% in 1979–2005 in Malaysia. A negative emission trend is derived in India (-0.4%), owing to the negative trend in solar radiation data associated with the strong dimming effect likely due to increasing aerosol loadings. The bottom-up emissions are compared to field campaign measurements in Borneo and South China and further evaluated against top-down isoprene emission estimates constrained by GOME-2/MetOp-A formaldehyde columns through 2007–2012. The satellite-based estimates appear to support our assumptions, and confirm the lower emission rate in tropical forests of Indonesia and Malaysia. Additional flux measurements are clearly needed to characterize the spatial variability of emission factors better. To conclude, a decreasing trend in the inferred top-down Chinese emissions since 2007 is in line with recorded cooling in China after that year, thus suggesting that the satellite HCHO columns are able to capture climate-induced changes in emissions.« less

Interannual to decadal climate variability of sea salt aerosols in the coupled climate model CESM1.0: Climate variability of sea salt aerosols

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Xu, Li; Pierce, David W.; Russell, Lynn M.

This study examines multi-year climate variability associated with sea salt aerosols and their contribution to the variability of shortwave cloud forcing (SWCF) using a 150-year simulation for pre-industrial conditions of the Community Earth System Model version 1.0 (CESM1). The results suggest that changes in sea salt and related cloud and radiative properties on interannual timescales are dominated by the ENSO cycle. Sea salt variability on longer (interdecadal) timescales is associated with low-frequency Pacific ocean variability similar to the interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), but does not show a statistically significant spectral peak. A multivariate regression suggests that sea salt aerosol variabilitymore » may contribute to SWCF variability in the tropical Pacific, explaining up to 25-35% of the variance in that region. Elsewhere, there is only a small aerosol influence on SWCF through modifying cloud droplet number and liquid water path that contributes to the change of cloud effective radius and cloud optical depth (and hence cloud albedo), producing a multi-year aerosol-cloud-wind interaction.« less

Performance of the WRF model to simulate the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in East Africa: a case study for the Tana River basin in Kenya

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kerandi, Noah Misati; Laux, Patrick; Arnault, Joel; Kunstmann, Harald

2017-10-01

This study investigates the ability of the regional climate model Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in simulating the seasonal and interannual variability of hydrometeorological variables in the Tana River basin (TRB) in Kenya, East Africa. The impact of two different land use classifications, i.e., the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Geological Survey (USGS) at two horizontal resolutions (50 and 25 km) is investigated. Simulated precipitation and temperature for the period 2011-2014 are compared with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Research Unit (CRU), and station data. The ability of Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and Climate Research Unit (CRU) data in reproducing in situ observation in the TRB is analyzed. All considered WRF simulations capture well the annual as well as the interannual and spatial distribution of precipitation in the TRB according to station data and the TRMM estimates. Our results demonstrate that the increase of horizontal resolution from 50 to 25 km, together with the use of the MODIS land use classification, significantly improves the precipitation results. In the case of temperature, spatial patterns and seasonal cycle are well reproduced, although there is a systematic cold bias with respect to both station and CRU data. Our results contribute to the identification of suitable and regionally adapted regional climate models (RCMs) for East Africa.

Compensatory Water Effects Link Yearly Global Land CO2 Sink Changes to Temperature

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jung, Martin; Reichstein, Markus; Tramontana, Gianluca; Viovy, Nicolas; Schwalm, Christopher R.; Wang, Ying-Ping; Weber, Ulrich; Weber, Ulrich; Zaehle, Soenke; Zeng, Ning;

Spring onset variations and long-term trends from new hemispheric-scale products and remote sensing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dye, D. G.; Li, X.; Ault, T.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Schwartz, M. D.

2015-12-01

Spring onset is commonly characterized by plant phenophase changes among a variety of biophysical transitions and has important implications for natural and man-managed ecosystems. Here, we present a new integrated analysis of variability in gridded Northern Hemisphere spring onset metrics. We developed a set of hemispheric temperature-based spring indices spanning 1920-2013. As these were derived solely from meteorological data, they are used as a benchmark for isolating the climate system's role in modulating spring "green up" estimated from the annual cycle of normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Spatial patterns of interannual variations, teleconnections, and long-term trends were also analyzed in all metrics. At mid-to-high latitudes, all indices exhibit larger variability at interannual to decadal time scales than at spatial scales of a few kilometers. Trends of spring onset vary across space and time. However, compared to long-term trend, interannual to decadal variability generally accounts for a larger portion of the total variance in spring onset timing. Therefore, spring onset trends identified from short existing records may be aliased by decadal climate variations due to their limited temporal depth, even when these records span the entire satellite era. Based on our findings, we also demonstrated that our indices have skill in representing ecosystem-level spring phenology and may have important implications in understanding relationships between phenology, atmosphere dynamics and climate variability.

A high-resolution speleothem record of western equatorial Pacific rainfall: Implications for Holocene ENSO evolution

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Sang; Hoffmann, Sharon S.; Lund, David C.; Cobb, Kim M.; Emile-Geay, Julien; Adkins, Jess F.

2016-05-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary driver of interannual climate variability in the tropics and subtropics. Despite substantial progress in understanding ocean-atmosphere feedbacks that drive ENSO today, relatively little is known about its behavior on centennial and longer timescales. Paleoclimate records from lakes, corals, molluscs and deep-sea sediments generally suggest that ENSO variability was weaker during the mid-Holocene (4-6 kyr BP) than the late Holocene (0-4 kyr BP). However, discrepancies amongst the records preclude a clear timeline of Holocene ENSO evolution and therefore the attribution of ENSO variability to specific climate forcing mechanisms. Here we present δ18 O results from a U-Th dated speleothem in Malaysian Borneo sampled at sub-annual resolution. The δ18 O of Borneo rainfall is a robust proxy of regional convective intensity and precipitation amount, both of which are directly influenced by ENSO activity. Our estimates of stalagmite δ18 O variance at ENSO periods (2-7 yr) show a significant reduction in interannual variability during the mid-Holocene (3240-3380 and 5160-5230 yr BP) relative to both the late Holocene (2390-2590 yr BP) and early Holocene (6590-6730 yr BP). The Borneo results are therefore inconsistent with lacustrine records of ENSO from the eastern equatorial Pacific that show little or no ENSO variance during the early Holocene. Instead, our results support coral, mollusc and foraminiferal records from the central and eastern equatorial Pacific that show a mid-Holocene minimum in ENSO variance. Reduced mid-Holocene interannual δ18 O variability in Borneo coincides with an overall minimum in mean δ18 O from 3.5 to 5.5 kyr BP. Persistent warm pool convection would tend to enhance the Walker circulation during the mid-Holocene, which likely contributed to reduced ENSO variance during this period. This finding implies that both convective intensity and interannual variability in Borneo are driven by coupled air-sea dynamics that are sensitive to precessional insolation forcing. Isolating the exact mechanisms that drive long-term ENSO evolution will require additional high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions and further investigation of Holocene tropical climate evolution using coupled climate models.

The FOODBANCS project: Introduction and sinking fluxes of organic carbon, chlorophyll- a and phytodetritus on the western Antarctic Peninsula continental shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Craig R.; Mincks, Sarah; DeMaster, David J.

2008-11-01

The impact of the highly seasonal Antarctic primary production cycle on shelf benthic ecosystems remains poorly evaluated. Here we describe a times-series research project on the West Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) shelf designed to evaluate the seafloor deposition, and subsequent ecological and biogeochemical impacts, of the summer phytoplankton bloom along a transect crossing the Antarctic shelf near Anvers Island. During this project, entitled Food for Benthos on the Antarctic Continental Shelf (FOODBANCS), we deployed replicate sediment traps 150-170 m above the seafloor (total water-column depth of 590 m) on the central shelf from December 1999 to March 2001, recovering trap samples every 3-4 months. In addition, we used a seafloor time-lapse camera system, as well as video surveys conducted at 3-4 months intervals, to monitor the presence and accumulation of phytodetritus at the sediment-water interface. The fluxes of particulate organic carbon and chlorophyll- a into sediment traps (binned over 3-4 month intervals) showed patterns consistent with seasonal variability, with average summer fluxes during the first year exceeding winter fluxes by a factor of ˜2-3. However, inter-annual variability in summer fluxes was even greater than seasonal variability, with 4-10-fold differences in the flux of organic carbon and chlorophyll- a between the summer seasons of 1999-2000 and 2000-2001. Phytodetrital accumulation at the shelf floor also exhibited intense inter-annual variability, with no visible phytodetritus from essentially December 1999 to November 2000, followed by pulsed accumulation of 1-2 cm of phytodetritus over a ˜30,000 km 2 shelf area by March 2001. Comparisons with other studies suggest that the levels of inter-annual variability we observed are typical of the Antarctic shelf over decadal time scales. We conclude that fluxes of particulate organic carbon, chlorophyll- a and phytodetritus to WAP-shelf sediments vary intensely on seasonal to inter-annual time scales, yielding dramatic temporal variability in the flux of food for detritivores to the Antarctic shelf floor.

Inter-Annual Variability in Stream Water Temperature, Microclimate and Heat Exchanges: a Comparison of Forest and Moorland Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Garner, G.; Hannah, D. M.; Malcolm, I.; Sadler, J. P.

2012-12-01

Riparian forest is recognised as important for moderating stream temperature variability and has the potential to mitigate thermal extremes in a changing climate. Previous research on the heat exchanges controlling water column temperature has often been short-term or seasonally-constrained, with the few multi-year studies limited to a maximum of two years. This study advances previous work by providing a longer-term perspective which allows assessment of inter-annual variability in stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange dynamics between a semi-natural woodland and a moorland (no trees) reach of the Girnock Burn, a tributary of the Scottish Dee. Automatic weather stations collected 15-minute data over seven consecutive years, which to our knowledge is a unique data set in providing the longest term perspective to date on stream temperature, microclimate and heat exchange processes. Results for spring-summer indicate that the presence of a riparian canopy has a consistent effect between years in reducing the magnitude and variability of mean daily water column temperature and daily net energy totals. Differences in the magnitude and variability in net energy fluxes between the study reaches were driven primarily by fluctuations in net radiation and latent heat fluxes in response to between- and within-year variability in growth of the riparian forest canopy at the forest and prevailing weather conditions at both the forest and moorland. This research provides new insights on the inter-annual variability of stream energy exchanges for moorland and forested reaches under a wide range of climatological and hydrological conditions. The findings therefore provide a more robust process basis for modelling the impact of changes in forest practice and climate change on river thermal dynamics.

Drought risk assessment under climate change is sensitive to methodological choices for the estimation of evaporative demand

PubMed Central

Barsugli, Joseph J.; Hobbins, Michael T.; Kumar, Sanjiv

2017-01-01

Several studies have projected increases in drought severity, extent and duration in many parts of the world under climate change. We examine sources of uncertainty arising from the methodological choices for the assessment of future drought risk in the continental US (CONUS). One such uncertainty is in the climate models’ expression of evaporative demand (E0), which is not a direct climate model output but has been traditionally estimated using several different formulations. Here we analyze daily output from two CMIP5 GCMs to evaluate how differences in E0 formulation, treatment of meteorological driving data, choice of GCM, and standardization of time series influence the estimation of E0. These methodological choices yield different assessments of spatio-temporal variability in E0 and different trends in 21st century drought risk. First, we estimate E0 using three widely used E0 formulations: Penman-Monteith; Hargreaves-Samani; and Priestley-Taylor. Our analysis, which primarily focuses on the May-September warm-season period, shows that E0 climatology and its spatial pattern differ substantially between these three formulations. Overall, we find higher magnitudes of E0 and its interannual variability using Penman-Monteith, in particular for regions like the Great Plains and southwestern US where E0 is strongly influenced by variations in wind and relative humidity. When examining projected changes in E0 during the 21st century, there are also large differences among the three formulations, particularly the Penman-Monteith relative to the other two formulations. The 21st century E0 trends, particularly in percent change and standardized anomalies of E0, are found to be sensitive to the long-term mean value and the amplitude of interannual variability, i.e. if the magnitude of E0 and its interannual variability are relatively low for a particular E0 formulation, then the normalized or standardized 21st century trend based on that formulation is amplified relative to other formulations. This is the case for the use of Hargreaves-Samani and Priestley-Taylor, where future E0 trends are comparatively much larger than for Penman-Monteith. When comparing Penman-Monteith E0 responses between different choices of input variables related to wind speed, surface roughness, and net radiation, we found differences in E0 trends, although these choices had a much smaller influence on E0 trends than did the E0 formulation choices. These methodological choices and specific climate model selection, also have a large influence on the estimation of trends in standardized drought indices used for drought assessment operationally. We find that standardization tends to amplify divergences between the E0 trends calculated using different E0 formulations, because standardization is sensitive to both the climatology and amplitude of interannual variability of E0. For different methodological choices and GCM output considered in estimating E0, we examine potential sources of uncertainty in 21st century trends in the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) over selected regions of the CONUS to demonstrate the practical implications of these methodological choices for the quantification of drought risk under climate change. PMID:28301603

Association between mean and interannual equatorial Indian Ocean subsurface temperature bias in a coupled model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Srinivas, G.; Chowdary, Jasti S.; Gnanaseelan, C.; Prasad, K. V. S. R.; Karmakar, Ananya; Parekh, Anant

2018-03-01

In the present study the association between mean and interannual subsurface temperature bias over the equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) is investigated during boreal summer (June through September; JJAS) in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) hindcast. Anomalously high subsurface warm bias (greater than 3 °C) over the eastern EIO (EEIO) region is noted in CFSv2 during summer, which is higher compared to other parts of the tropical Indian Ocean. Prominent eastward current bias in the upper 100 m over the EIO region induced by anomalous westerly winds is primarily responsible for subsurface temperature bias. The eastward currents transport warm water to the EEIO and is pushed down to subsurface due to downwelling. Thus biases in both horizontal and vertical currents over the EIO region support subsurface warm bias. The evolution of systematic subsurface warm bias in the model shows strong interannual variability. These maximum subsurface warming episodes over the EEIO are mainly associated with La Niña like forcing. Strong convergence of low level winds over the EEIO and Maritime continent enhanced the westerly wind bias over the EIO during maximum warming years. This low level convergence of wind is induced by the bias in the gradient in the mean sea level pressure with positive bias over western EIO and negative bias over EEIO and parts of western Pacific. Consequently, changes in the atmospheric circulation associated with La Niña like conditions affected the ocean dynamics by modulating the current bias thereby enhancing the subsurface warm bias over the EEIO. It is identified that EEIO subsurface warming is stronger when La Niña co-occurred with negative Indian Ocean Dipole events as compared to La Niña only years in the model. Ocean general circulation model (OGCM) experiments forced with CFSv2 winds clearly support our hypothesis that ocean dynamics influenced by westerly winds bias is primarily responsible for the strong subsurface warm bias over the EEIO. This study advocates the importance of understanding the ability of the models in representing the large scale air-sea interactions over the tropics and their impact on ocean biases for better monsoon forecast.

Circulation effect: response of precipitation δ18O to the ENSO cycle in monsoon regions of China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tan, Ming

2014-02-01

Inter-annual variation in the ratio of 18O to 16O of precipitation (δ18Op) in the monsoon regions of China (MRC, area approximately east of 100°E) has not yet been fully analyzed. Based on an analysis of the relationships between the time series of amount-weighted mean annual δ18O in precipitation (δ18Ow) and meteorological variables such as temperature, precipitation as well as atmospheric/oceanic circulation indices, it is recognized that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle appears to be the dominant control on the inter-annual variation in δ18Op in the MRC. Further analysis shows that the trade wind plays a role in governing δ18Ow through affecting the intensity of the different summer monsoon circulations which are closely linked to the weakening (weaker than normal) and strengthening (stronger than normal) of the trade wind and gives the δ18Ow different values at or over inter-annual timescales. The southwest monsoon (SWM) drives long-distance transport of water vapor from Indian Ocean to the MRC, and along this pathway increasing rainout leads to more negative δ18Ow via Rayleigh distillation processes. In contrast, the southeast monsoon (SEM), which is consistent with the changes in the strength of the West Pacific subtropical high, drives short-distance water vapor transport from the West Pacific Ocean to the MRC and leads to less negative δ18Ow. Therefore, the δ18Ow value directly reflects the differences in influence between the SWM, which is strong when the SE trade wind is strong, and the SEM, which is strong when the SE trade wind is weak. In addition, the South China Sea Monsoon also transports local water vapor as well as plays a role in achieving the synchronization between the δ18Ow and ENSO. The author thus terms the δ18Op rhythm in the MRC the "circulation effect". In turn, the δ18Op variation in the MRC has the potential to provide information on atmospheric circulation and the signal of δ18Op recorded in natural archives can then be used to deduce a long-term behavior of the tropical climate system.

Climate variability has a stabilizing effect on the coexistence of prairie grasses

PubMed Central

Adler, Peter B.; HilleRisLambers, Janneke; Kyriakidis, Phaedon C.; Guan, Qingfeng; Levine, Jonathan M.

2006-01-01

How expected increases in climate variability will affect species diversity depends on the role of such variability in regulating the coexistence of competing species. Despite theory linking temporal environmental fluctuations with the maintenance of diversity, the importance of climate variability for stabilizing coexistence remains unknown because of a lack of appropriate long-term observations. Here, we analyze three decades of demographic data from a Kansas prairie to demonstrate that interannual climate variability promotes the coexistence of three common grass species. Specifically, we show that (i) the dynamics of the three species satisfy all requirements of “storage effect” theory based on recruitment variability with overlapping generations, (ii) climate variables are correlated with interannual variation in species performance, and (iii) temporal variability increases low-density growth rates, buffering these species against competitive exclusion. Given that environmental fluctuations are ubiquitous in natural systems, our results suggest that coexistence based on the storage effect may be underappreciated and could provide an important alternative to recent neutral theories of diversity. Field evidence for positive effects of variability on coexistence also emphasizes the need to consider changes in both climate means and variances when forecasting the effects of global change on species diversity. PMID:16908862

Projected Changes in Mean and Interannual Variability of Surface Water over Continental China

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Leng, Guoyong; Tang, Qiuhong; Huang, Maoyi

Five General Circulation Model (GCM) climate projections under the RCP8.5 emission scenario were used to drive the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model to investigate the impacts of climate change on hydrologic cycle over continental China in the 21st century. The bias-corrected climatic variables were generated for the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5) by the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP). Results showed much larger fractional changes of annual mean Evaportranspiration (ET) per unit warming than the corresponding fractional changes of Precipitation (P) per unit warming across the country especially for South China,more » which led to notable decrease of surface water variability (P-E). Specifically, negative trends for annual mean runoff up to -0.33%/decade and soil moisture trends varying between -0.02 to -0.13%/decade were found for most river basins across China. Coincidentally, interannual variability for both runoff and soil moisture exhibited significant positive trends for almost all river basins across China, implying an increase in extremes relative to the mean conditions. Noticeably, the largest positive trends for runoff variability and soil moisture variability, which were up to 38 0.41%/decade and 0.90%/decade, both occurred in Southwest China. In addition to the regional contrast, intra-seasonal variation was also large for the runoff mean and runoff variability changes, but small for the soil moisture mean and variability changes. Our results suggest that future climate change could further exacerbate existing water-related risks (e.g. floods and droughts) across China as indicated by the marked decrease of surface water amounts combined with steady increase of interannual variability throughout the 21st century. This study highlights the regional contrast and intra-seasonal variations for the projected hydrologic changes and could provide muti-scale guidance for assessing effective adaptation strategies for the country on a river basin, regional, or as whole.« less

Recent climate variability and its impacts on soybean yields in Southern Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ferreira, Danielle Barros; Rao, V. Brahmananda

2011-08-01

Recent climate variability in rainfall, temperatures (maximum and minimum), and the diurnal temperature range is studied with emphasis on its influence over soybean yields in southern Brazil, during 1969 to 2002. The results showed that the soybean ( Glycine max L. Merril) yields are more affected by changes in temperature during summer, while changes in rainfall are more important during the beginning of plantation and at its peak of development. Furthermore, soybean yields in Paraná are more sensitive to rainfall variations, while soybean yields in the Rio Grande do Sul are more sensitive to variations in temperature. Effects of interannual climatic variability on soybean yields are evaluated through three agro-meteorological models: additive Stewart, multiplicative Rao, and multiplicative Jensen. The Jensen model is able to reproduce the interannual behavior of soybean yield reasonably well.

Investigating connections between local-remote atmospheric variability and Greenland outlet glacier behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sobolowski, Stefan; Chen, Linling; Miles, Victoria

2016-04-01

The outlet glaciers along the margins of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) exhibit a range of behaviors, which are crucial for understanding GrIS mass changes from a dynamical point of view. However, the drivers of this behavior are still poorly understood. Arguments (counter-arguments) have been made for a strong (weak) local oceanic influence on marine terminating outlet glaciers while decadal-scale drivers linked to fluctuations in the Ice sheet itself and the North Atlantic ocean (e.g. Atlantic Multidecadal Variability) have also been posited as drivers. Recently there have also been studies linking (e.g. seasonal to interannual) atmospheric variability, synoptic activity and the Ice Sheet variability. But these studies typically investigate atmospheric links to the large-scale behavior of the Ice Sheet itself and do not go down to the scale of the outlet glaciers. Conversely, investigations of the outlet glaciers often do not include potential links to non-local atmospheric dynamics. Here the authors attempt to bridge the gap and investigate the relationship between atmospheric variability across a range of scales and the behavior of three outlet glaciers on Greenland's southeast coast over a 33-year period (1980-2012). The glaciers - Helheim, Midgard and Fenris - are near Tasiilaq, are marine terminating and exhibit varying degree of connection to the GrIS. ERA-Interim reanalysis, sea-ice data and glacier observations are used for the investigation. Long records of mass balance are unavailable for these glaciers and front position is employed as a measure of glacier atmosphere interactions across multiple scales, as it exhibits robust relationships to atmospheric variability on time scales of seasons to many years, with the strongest relationships seen at seasonal - interannual time scales. The authors do not make the argument that front position is a suitable proxy for mass balance, only that it is indicative of the role of local and remote atmospheric/climate dynamics in glacier behavior. Our study suggests a strong relationship between large-scale tropospheric circulation patterns, such as the so-called Greenland Blocking Index (GBI), and glacier front position. This relationship is seen in the wintertime (summertime) circulation influence on spring (fall) front position. Dynamically, a physical pathway is illustrated via canonical correlation analyses and composites of low-mid level winds, which show strong southerly advection into the region when the GBI is positive. There are also potential links between local and remote diabatic heating in the atmospheric column, SSTs, sea-ice concentration and front position. Whether there are physical pathways connecting remote surface processes, such as heating along western Greenland is not yet clear. Causality is always difficult to infer in reanalysis-based studies but physical intuition and theory provide multiple lines of evidence, which suggest a substantial influence of large-scale atmospheric dynamics at the margins of the GrIS. Improving our understanding of these physical connections will be crucial, as we know the outlet glaciers will respond under rapidly changing climate conditions.

How does the terrestrial carbon exchange respond to inter-annual climatic variations? A quantification based on atmospheric CO2 data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rödenbeck, Christian; Zaehle, Sönke; Keeling, Ralph; Heimann, Martin

2018-04-01

The response of the terrestrial net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO2 to climate variations and trends may crucially determine the future climate trajectory. Here we directly quantify this response on inter-annual timescales by building a linear regression of inter-annual NEE anomalies against observed air temperature anomalies into an atmospheric inverse calculation based on long-term atmospheric CO2 observations. This allows us to estimate the sensitivity of NEE to inter-annual variations in temperature (seen as a climate proxy) resolved in space and with season. As this sensitivity comprises both direct temperature effects and the effects of other climate variables co-varying with temperature, we interpret it as inter-annual climate sensitivity. We find distinct seasonal patterns of this sensitivity in the northern extratropics that are consistent with the expected seasonal responses of photosynthesis, respiration, and fire. Within uncertainties, these sensitivity patterns are consistent with independent inferences from eddy covariance data. On large spatial scales, northern extratropical and tropical inter-annual NEE variations inferred from the NEE-T regression are very similar to the estimates of an atmospheric inversion with explicit inter-annual degrees of freedom. The results of this study offer a way to benchmark ecosystem process models in more detail than existing effective global climate sensitivities. The results can also be used to gap-fill or extrapolate observational records or to separate inter-annual variations from longer-term trends.

Dynamics of the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bulusu, S.

2016-02-01

The southwest tropical Indian Ocean (SWTIO) features a unique, seasonal upwelling of the thermocline also known as the Seychelles-Chagos Thermocline Ridge (SCTR). More recently, this ridge or "dome"-like feature in the thermocline depth at (55°E-65°E, 5°S-12°S) in the SWTIO has been linked to interannual variability in the semi-annual Indian Ocean monsoon seasons as well as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The SCTR is a region where the MJO is associated with strong SST variability. Normally more cyclones are found generated in this SCTR region when the thermocline is deeper, which has a positive relation to the arrival of a downwelling Rossby wave from the southeast tropical Indian Ocean. Previous studies have focused their efforts solely on sea surface temperature (SST) because they determined salinity variability to be low, but with the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and Aquarius salinity missions new insight can be shed on the effects that the seasonal upwelling of the thermocline has on Sea Surface Salinity (SSS). Seasonal SSS anomalies these missions will reveal the magnitude of seasonal SSS variability, while Argo depth profiles will show the link between changes in subsurface salinity and temperature structure. A seasonal increase in SST and a decrease in SSS associated with the downwelling of the thermocline have also been shown to occasionally generate MJO events, an extremely important part of climate variability in the Indian ocean. Satellite derives salinity and Argo data can help link changes in surface and subsurface salinity structure to the generation of the important MJO events. This study uses satellite derived salinity from Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS), and Aquarius to see if these satellites can yield new information on seasonal and interannual surface variability. In this study barrier layer thickness (BLT) estimates will be derived from satellite measurements using a multilinear regression model (MRM). This study will help to improve monsoon modeling and forecasting, two areas that remain highly inaccurate after decades of research work.

Climatology and variability of SST frontal activity in Eastern Pacific Ocean over the past decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Y.; Yuan, Y.

2016-12-01

Distribution of sea surface temperature (SST) fronts are derived from high-resolution MODIS dataset in Eastern Pacific Ocean from 2003 to 2015. Daily distribution of frontal activities shows detailed feature and movement of front and the discontinuity of the track of front cause by cloud coverage. Monthly frontal probability is calculated to investigate corresponding climatology and variability. Frontal probability is generally higher along the coast and decreasing offshore. The frontal activity could extend few hundreds of kilometers near the major capes and central Pacific Ocean. SST gradient associated with front is changing over different latitude with stronger gradient near the mid-latitude and under major topographic effects near tropics. Corresponding results from empirical orthogonal functions (EOF) shows major variability of SST front is found in mid-latitude and central Pacific Ocean. The temporal variability captures a strong interannual and annual variability in those regions, while Intraannual variability are found more important at small scale near major capes and topographic features. The frontal variability is highly impacted by wind stress, upwelling, air-sea interaction, current, topography, eddy activity, El Nino along with other factors. And front plays an importance role in influencing the distribution of nutrients, the activity of fisheries and the development of ecosystems.

Interannual Variability in Surface LW Fluxes Over the Tropical Oceans As Seen in ISCCP-FD and GEWEX SRB Data Sets

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, F. R.; Lu, H.-I.

2005-01-01

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1 983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Fu!l and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NAS/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Significant differences in both interannual variability as well as trends are found between among these data sets. For radiative fluxes these differences are traced to TOVS thermodynamic soundings used to drive the ISCCP-FD calculations. Errors in near surface temperature and precipitable water cascade into ISCCP upward and downward IR flux components, demonstrably affecting interannual variability. Revised estimates of clear-sky fluxes over ocean are made using statistical algorithms and water vapor from the (SSM/I) Special Sensor Microwave Imager. These calculations show strong near-surface water vapor feedback over the tropical oceans in association with SST changes. However, it is also shown that ISCCP longwave cloud forcing, common to both the ISCCP-FD and GEWEX SRB retrievals, is the main driver of a long-term decrease in net LW flux to the surface during the near-20 year period covered by these revised estimates.

Interannual (2009-2013) variability of winter-spring phytoplankton in the open South Adriatic Sea: Effects of deep convection and lateral advection

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ljubimir, Stijepo; Jasprica, Nenad; Čalić, Marijeta; Hrustić, Enis; Dupčić Radić, Iris; Car, Ana; Batistić, Mirna

2017-07-01

The South Adriatic (SA) is an entry point for water masses originating from the Ionian Sea (IS) and a place of dense water formation for the eastern Mediterranean deep circulation cell. Water masses, entering the SA in larger amount during the winter, show decadal variability explained by different circulating regimes (cyclonic and anticyclonic) in the IS, referred to as "Bimodal Oscillating System" (BiOS). Sampling station was situated in the South Adriatic Pit (SAP) with depth of 1200 m. Micro- and nano-phytoplankton abundances, community structure, chlorophyll a concentrations, physical and chemical properties are presented in the winter and spring months for five consecutive years (2009-2013) during different circulating regimes of BiOS. Vertical convective mixing was regularly observed in winter except in 2011 which had effect on nutrient availability and consequently on biomass of primary producers. Effect of strong vertical mixing in February 2012 resulted with exceptionally high phytoplankton abundance and chlorophyll a concentrations in March of 2012. Strong convective mixing resulted in higher diatom abundances, comparing to winter when mixing did not occur. No such bloom was observed during investigated spring.

The Pattern Across the Continental United States of Evapotranspiration Variability Associated with Water Availability

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Koster, Randal D.; Salvucci, Guido D.; Rigden, Angela J.; Jung, Martin; Collatz, G. James; Schubert, Siegfried D.

2015-01-01

The spatial pattern across the continental United States of the interannual variance of warm season water-dependent evapotranspiration, a pattern of relevance to land-atmosphere feedback, cannot be measured directly. Alternative and indirect approaches to estimating the pattern, however, do exist, and given the uncertainty of each, we use several such approaches here. We first quantify the water dependent evapotranspiration variance pattern inherent in two derived evapotranspiration datasets available from the literature. We then search for the pattern in proxy geophysical variables (air temperature, stream flow, and NDVI) known to have strong ties to evapotranspiration. The variances inherent in all of the different (and mostly independent) data sources show some differences but are generally strongly consistent they all show a large variance signal down the center of the U.S., with lower variances toward the east and (for the most part) toward the west. The robustness of the pattern across the datasets suggests that it indeed represents the pattern operating in nature. Using Budykos hydroclimatic framework, we show that the pattern can largely be explained by the relative strength of water and energy controls on evapotranspiration across the continent.

Effects of monsoon trough interannual variation on tropical cyclogenesis over the western North Pacific

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cao, Xi; Li, Tim; Peng, Melinda; Chen, Wen; Chen, Guanghua

2014-06-01

The western North Pacific monsoon trough (MT) exhibits marked interannual variation (IAV) associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation forcing. The role of MT IAV in tropical cyclone (TC) development was investigated using the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting model placed on a beta plane. It was found that MT IAV has a great influence on vortex development. In strong years, the MT provides more favorable environmental conditions—primarily through enhanced low-level vorticity, convergence and midlevel moisture—for TC formation and vice versa in weak years. Sensitivity experiments that separated the dynamic and thermodynamic (moisture) factors from strong MT IAV showed that the thermodynamic impact associated with MT IAV is comparable to the dynamic impact.

An Analysis of Inter-annual Variability and Uncertainty of Continental Surface Heat Fluxes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huang, S. Y.; Deng, Y.; Wang, J.

2016-12-01

The inter-annual variability and the corresponding uncertainty of land surface heat fluxes during the first decade of the 21st century are re-evaluated at continental scale based on the heat fluxes estimated by the maximum entropy production (MEP) model. The MEP model predicted heat fluxes are constrained by surface radiation fluxes, automatically satisfy surface energy balance, and are independent of temperature/moisture gradient, wind speed, and roughness lengths. The surface radiation fluxes and temperature data from Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System and the surface specific humidity data from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications were used to reproduce the global surface heat fluxes with land-cover data from the NASA Energy and Water cycle Study (NEWS). Our analysis shows that the annual means of continental latent heat fluxes have increasing trends associated with increasing trends in surface net radiative fluxes. The sensible heat fluxes also have increasing trends over most continents except for South America. Ground heat fluxes have little trends. The continental-scale analysis of the MEP fluxes are compared with other existing global surface fluxes data products and the implications of the results for inter-annual to decadal variability of regional surface energy budget are discussed.

Long-Term Simulation of Dust Distribution with the GOCART Model: Correlation with the North Atlantic Oscillation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ginoux, P.; Prospero, J.; Torres, O.; Chin, M.

2002-01-01

Global distribution of aeolian dust is simulated from 1981 to 1996 with the Goddard Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model. The results are assessed with in-situ measurements and the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) aerosol products. The annual budget over the different continents and oceans are analyzed. It is found that there is a maximum of 25% difference of global annual emission from the minimum in 1996 to the maximum in 1988. There is a downward trend of dust emission over Africa and East Asia, of 6 and 2 Tg/yr, respectively. The inter-annual variability of dust distribution is analyzed over the North Atlantic and Africa. It is found that in winter most of the North Atlantic and Africa dust loading is correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation. The GOCART model indicates that a controlling factor of such correlation can be attributed to dust emission from the Sahel. The Bodele depression is the major dust source in winter and its inter-annual variability is highly correlated with the NAO. However, it is not possible to conclude without further analysis that the North Atlantic Oscillation is forcing the inter-annual variability of dust emission and in-turn dust concentration over the North Atlantic.

Interannual Variations in Earth's Low-Degree Gravity Field and the Connections With Geophysical/Climatic Changes

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chao, Benjamin F.; Cox, Christopher M.

2004-01-01

Long-wavelength time-variable gravity recently derived from satellite laser ranging (SLR) analysis have focused to a large extent on the effects of the recent (since 1998) large anomalous change in J2, or the Earth's oblateness, and the potential causes. However, it is relatively more difficult to determine whether there are corresponding signals in the shorter wavelength zonal harmonics from the existing SLR-derived time variable gravity results, although it appears that geophysical fluid mass transport is being observed. For example, the recovered J3 time series shows remarkable agreement with NCEP-derived estimates of atmospheric gravity variations. Likewise, some of the non-zonal spherical harmonic components have significant interannual signal that appears to be related to mass transport. The non-zonal degree-2 components show reasonable temporal correlation with atmospheric signals, as well as climatic effects such as El Nino Southern Oscillation. We will present recent updates on the J2 evolution, as well as a look at other low-degree components of the interannual variations of gravity, complete through degree 4. We will examine the possible geophysical and climatic causes of these low-degree time-variable gravity related to oceanic and hydrological mass transports, for example some anomalous but prominent signals found in the extratropic Pacific ocean related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation.

Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ault, Toby R.; Schwartz, Mark D.; Zurita-Milla, Raul; Weltzin, Jake F.; Betancourt, Julio L.

2015-01-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade21, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Trends and Natural Variability of Spring Onset in the Coterminous United States as Evaluated by a New Gridded Dataset of Spring Indices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ault, T.; Schwartz, M. D.; Zurita-Milla, R.; Weltzin, J. F.; Betancourt, J. L.

2015-12-01

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous US. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from -0.8 to -1.6 days per decade, while first bloom index trends are between -0.4 and -1.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal timescales. Finally, there is some potential for successful sub-seasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

A high-resolution OGCM simulation of the Tropical Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Part I: Long equatorial waves

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boulanger, J. P.; Delecluse, F.; Maes, C.; Levy, C.

1995-01-01

A high resolution oceanic general circulation model of the three topical oceans is used to investigate long equatorial wave activity in the Pacific Ocean during the 1985-1994 TOGA period. Zonal wind stress forcing and simulated dynamic height are interpreted using techniques previously applied to data. Kelvin and first Rossby waves are observed propagating during all the period. A seasonal cycle and interannual anomalies are computed for each long equatorial wave. The east Pacific basin is mainly dominated by seasonal cycle variations while strong interannual anomalies are observed west of the dateline. Long wave interannual anomalies are then compared to wave coefficients simulated by a simple wind-forced model. Our results outline the major role played by wind forcing on interannual time scales in generating long equatorial waves. However, near both eastern and western boundaries, some differences can be attributed to long wave reflections. A comparison to wave coefficients calculated from GEOSAT sea-level data gives some insight of the model behavior.

Tradeoffs between vegetation management goals and livestock production under Adapative Grazing Management

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Rangeland ecosystems are characterized by substantial temporal variability in weather overlaid on spatial variability associated with topography and soils (Fuhlendorf et al. 2012). Semiarid rangelands in particular are characterized by more extreme intra- and inter-annual variation in precipitation ...

Combining multiple ecosystem productivity measurements to constrain carbon uptake estimates in semiarid grasslands and shrublands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maurer, G. E.; Krofcheck, D. J.; Collins, S. L.; Litvak, M. E.

2016-12-01

Recent observational and modeling studies have indicated that semiarid ecosystems are more dynamic contributors to the global carbon budget than once thought. Semiarid carbon fluxes, however, are generally small, with high interannual and spatial variability, which suggests that validating their global significance may depend on examining multiple productivity measures and their associated uncertainties and inconsistencies. We examined ecosystem productivity from eddy covariance (NEE), harvest (NPP), and terrestrial biome models (NEPm) at two very similar grassland sites and one creosote shrubland site in the Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge of central New Mexico, USA. Our goal was to assess site and methodological correspondence in annual carbon uptake, patterns of interannual variability, and measurement uncertainty. One grassland site was a perennial carbon source losing 30 g C m-2 per year on average, while the other two sites were carbon sources or sinks depending on the year, with average net uptake of 5 and 25 g C m-2 per year at the grassland and shrubland site, respectively. Uncertainty values for cumulative annual NEE overlapped between the three sites in most years. When combined, aboveground and belowground annual NPP measurements were 15% higher than annual NEE values and did not confirm a loss of carbon at any site in any year. Despite differences in mean site carbon balance, year-to-year changes in cumulative annual NEE and NPP were similar at all sites with years 2010 and 2013 being favorable for carbon uptake and 2011 and 2012 being unfavorable at all sites. Modeled NEPm data for a number of nearby grid cells reproduced only a fraction of the observed range in carbon uptake and its interannual variability. These three sites are highly similar in location and climate and multiple carbon flux measurements confirm the high interannual variability in carbon flux. The exact magnitude of these fluxes, however, remains difficult to discern.

Challenges in modeling spatiotemporally varying phytoplankton blooms in the Northwestern Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sedigh Marvasti, S.; Gnanadesikan, A.; Bidokhti, A. A.; Dunne, J. P.; Ghader, S.

2016-02-01

Recent years have shown an increase in harmful algal blooms in the Northwest Arabian Sea and Gulf of Oman, raising the question of whether climate change will accelerate this trend. This has led us to examine whether the Earth System Models used to simulate phytoplankton productivity accurately capture bloom dynamics in this region - both in terms of the annual cycle and interannual variability. Satellite data (SeaWIFS ocean color) show two climatological blooms in this region, a wintertime bloom peaking in February and a summertime bloom peaking in September. On a regional scale, interannual variability of the wintertime bloom is dominated by cyclonic eddies which vary in location from one year to another. Two coarse (1°) models with the relatively complex biogeochemistry (TOPAZ) capture the annual cycle but neither eddies nor the interannual variability. An eddy-resolving model (GFDL CM2.6) with a simpler biogeochemistry (miniBLING) displays larger interannual variability, but overestimates the wintertime bloom and captures eddy-bloom coupling in the south but not in the north. The models fail to capture both the magnitude of the wintertime bloom and its modulation by eddies in part because of their failure to capture the observed sharp thermocline and/or nutricline in this region. When CM2.6 is able to capture such features in the Southern part of the basin, eddies modulate diffusive nutrient supply to the surface (a mechanism not previously emphasized in the literature). For the model to simulate the observed wintertime blooms within cyclones, it will be necessary to represent this relatively unusual nutrient structure as well as the cyclonic eddies. This is a challenge in the Northern Arabian Sea as it requires capturing the details of the outflow from the Persian Gulf - something that is poorly done in global models.

Impact of global warming on viral diseases: what is the evidence?

PubMed

Zell, Roland; Krumbholz, Andi; Wutzler, Peter

2008-12-01

Global warming is believed to induce a gradual climate change. Hence, it was predicted that tropical insects might expand their habitats thereby transmitting pathogens to humans. Although this concept is a conclusive presumption, clear evidence is still lacking--at least for viral diseases. Epidemiological data indicate that seasonality of many diseases is further influenced by strong single weather events, interannual climate phenomena, and anthropogenic factors. So far, emergence of new diseases was unlinked to global warming. Re-emergence and dispersion of diseases was correlated with translocation of pathogen-infected vectors or hosts. Coupled ocean/atmosphere circulations and 'global change' that also includes shifting of demographic, social, and economical conditions are important drivers of viral disease variability whereas global warming at best contributes.

Measuring the potential utility of seasonal climate predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tippett, Michael K.; Kleeman, Richard; Tang, Youmin

2004-11-01

Variation of sea surface temperature (SST) on seasonal-to-interannual time-scales leads to changes in seasonal weather statistics and seasonal climate anomalies. Relative entropy, an information theory measure of utility, is used to quantify the impact of SST variations on seasonal precipitation compared to natural variability. An ensemble of general circulation model (GCM) simulations is used to estimate this quantity in three regions where tropical SST has a large impact on precipitation: South Florida, the Nordeste of Brazil and Kenya. We find the yearly variation of relative entropy is strongly correlated with shifts in ensemble mean precipitation and weakly correlated with ensemble variance. Relative entropy is also found to be related to measures of the ability of the GCM to reproduce observations.

Spatio-temporal variability of the SPCZ fresh pool eastern front from coral-derived surface salinity data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dassié, Emilie P.; Hasson, Audrey; Khodri, Myriam; Linsley, Braddock K.

2017-04-01

The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is a major atmospheric feature of the southern hemisphere. It is a low atmospheric convergence band associated with intense precipitations. Its position and intensity responds to global changes but also modulates regional weather patterns. Interannual to long-term SPCZ modifications result in extreme events such as severe droughts or flooding with profound socio-economic consequences. The SPCZ oceanic counterpart is a large body of fresh water (SSS<34.5 pss) extending southeast from the Maritime Continent to the dateline. This freshpool is separated from the high-salinity waters of the South Pacific gyre to the west by a steep salinity front. Various studies have shown a freshening of the freshpool and its south-eastward expansion since the 1970s, modulated by interannual to interdecadal variability (Cravatte et al., 2009). The scarcity of traditional SSS measurements limits our ability to describe accurately this variability. This study validates the use of coral d18O as a proxy for the reconstruction of SSS over the last 200 years. Derived SSS is validated against insitu data at 3 different locations along the SSS front (Fiji, Tonga and Rarotonga Islands). This new dataset enables us to investigate the spatio-temporal variations of the SSS front prior to the instrumental data. Two robust modes of variability are present in the reconstructed SSS datasets: interannual variability and a secular trend. The reconstructed SSS variability follows El Niño Southern Oscillation index. The three sites present secular trends toward fresher conditions, but do not present similar variability, neither in timing nor strength over their total length. Furthermore, the role of atmospheric freshwater fluxes on SSS variability is evaluated by comparing reconstructed SSS to available historical rain gauge data. Results highlight the role of both atmospheric freshwater fluxes and ocean dynamics on SSS variability.

The Mean State and Inter-annual Variability of East Asian Summer Monsoon in CMIP5 Coupled Models: Does Air-Sea Coupling Improve the Simulations?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, T.; Song, F.

2014-12-01

The climatology and inter-annual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) simulated by 34 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) coupled general circulation models (CGCMs) are evaluated. To estimate the role of air-sea coupling, 17 CGCMs are compared to their corresponding atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climatological low-level monsoon circulation and mei-yu/changma/baiu rainfall band are improved in CGCMs from AGCMs. The improvement is at the cost of the local cold sea surface temperature (SST) biases in CGCMs, since they decrease the surface evaporation and enhance the circulation. The inter-annual EASM pattern is evaluated by a skill formula and the highest/lowest 8 models are selected to investigate the skill origins. The observed Indian Ocean (IO) warming, tropical eastern Indian Ocean (TEIO) rainfall anomalies and Kelvin wave response are captured well in high-skill models, while these features are not present in low-skill models. Further, the differences in the IO warming between high-skill and low-skill models are rooted in the preceding ENSO simulation. Hence, the IO-WPAC teleconnection is important for CGCMs, similar to AGCMs. However, compared to AGCMs, the easterly anomalies in the southern flank of the WPAC make the TEIO warmer in CGCMs by reducing the climatological monsoon westerlies and decreasing the surface evaporation. The warmer TEIO induces the stronger precipitation anomalies and intensifies the teleconnection. Hence, the inter-annual EASM pattern is better simulated in CGCMs than that in AGCMs. Key words: CMIP5, CGCMs, air-sea coupling, AGCMs, inter-annual EASM pattern, ENSO, IO-WPAC teleconnection

Preface and brief synthesis for the FOODBANCS volume

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Smith, Craig R.; DeMaster, David J.

2008-11-01

In this volume we present results from the FOODBANCS Project, which examined the fate and benthic community impact of summer bloom material on the West Antarctic Peninsula shelf floor. The project involved a 5-cruise, 15-month time-series program in which sediment-trap moorings, core sampling, radiochemical profiling, sediment respirometry, bottom photography, and bottom trawling were used to evaluate: (1) seafloor deposition and lability of POC, (2) patterns of labile POC consumption and sediment mixing by benthos, and (3) seasonal and inter-annual variations in biotic abundance, biomass, reproductive condition, recruitment, and sediment community respiration. We find that the seafloor flux and accumulation of particulate organic carbon on the West Antarctic Peninsula shelf exhibit intense seasonal and interannual variability. Nonetheless, many key benthic processes, including organic-matter degradation, bioturbation, deposit feeding, and faunal abundance, reproduction and recruitment, show relatively muted response to this intense seasonal and inter-annual variability in export flux. We thus hypothesize that benthic ecosystems on the Antarctic shelf act as "low-pass" filters, and may be extremely useful in resolving the impacts of climatic change over periods of years to decades in Antarctic Peninsula region.

Future projection of Indian summer monsoon variability under climate change scenario: An assessment from CMIP5 climate models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sharmila, S.; Joseph, S.; Sahai, A. K.; Abhilash, S.; Chattopadhyay, R.

2015-01-01

In this study, the impact of enhanced anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on the possible future changes in different aspects of daily-to-interannual variability of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) is systematically assessed using 20 coupled models participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5. The historical (1951-1999) and future (2051-2099) simulations under the strongest Representative Concentration Pathway have been analyzed for this purpose. A few reliable models are selected based on their competence in simulating the basic features of present-climate ISM variability. The robust and consistent projections across the selected models suggest substantial changes in the ISM variability by the end of 21st century indicating strong sensitivity of ISM to global warming. On the seasonal scale, the all-India summer monsoon mean rainfall is likely to increase moderately in future, primarily governed by enhanced thermodynamic conditions due to atmospheric warming, but slightly offset by weakened large scale monsoon circulation. It is projected that the rainfall magnitude will increase over core monsoon zone in future climate, along with lengthening of the season due to late withdrawal. On interannual timescales, it is speculated that severity and frequency of both strong monsoon (SM) and weak monsoon (WM) might increase noticeably in future climate. Substantial changes in the daily variability of ISM are also projected, which are largely associated with the increase in heavy rainfall events and decrease in both low rain-rate and number of wet days during future monsoon. On the subseasonal scale, the model projections depict considerable amplification of higher frequency (below 30 day mode) components; although the dominant northward propagating 30-70 day mode of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations may not change appreciably in a warmer climate. It is speculated that the enhanced high frequency mode of monsoon ISOs due to increased GHG induced warming may notably modulate the ISM rainfall in future climate. Both extreme wet and dry episodes are likely to intensify and regionally extend in future climate with enhanced propensity of short active and long break spells. The SM (WM) could also be more wet (dry) in future due to the increment in longer active (break) spells. However, future changes in the spatial pattern during active/break phase of SM and WM are geographically inconsistent among the models. The results point out the growing climate-related vulnerability over Indian subcontinent, and further suggest the requisite of profound adaptation measures and better policy making in future.

A Multi-sensor Approach to Identify Crop Sensitivity Related to Climate Variability in Central India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mondal, P.; DeFries, R. S.; Jain, M.; Robertson, A. W.; Galford, G. L.; Small, C.

2012-12-01

Agriculture is a primary source of livelihood for over 70% of India's population, with staple crops (e.g. winter wheat) playing a pivotal role in satisfying an ever-increasing food-demand of a growing population. Agricultural yield in India has been reported to be highly correlated with the timing and total amount of monsoon rainfall and/or temperature depending on crop type. With expected change in future climate (temperature and precipitation), significant fluctuations in crop yields are projected for near future. To date, little work has identified the sensitivity of cropping intensity, or the number of crops planted in a given year, to climate variability. The objective of this study is to shed light on relative importance of different climate parameters through a statistical analysis of inter-annual variations in cropping intensity at a regional scale, which may help identify adaptive strategies in response to future climate anomalies. Our study focuses on a highly human-modified landscape in central India, and uses a multi-sensor approach to determine the sensitivity of agriculture to climate variability. First, we assembled the 16-day time-series of 250m Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and applied a spline function-based smoothing algorithm to develop maps of monsoon and winter crops in Central India for a decadal time-span. A hierarchical model involving moderate resolution Landsat (30m) data was used to estimate the heterogeneity of the spectral signature within the MODIS dataset (250m). We then compared the season-specific cropping patterns with spatio-temporal variability in climate parameters derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) data. Initial data indicates that the existence of a monsoon crop has moderate to strong correlation with wet season end date (ρ = .522), wet season length (ρ = .522), and the number of rainy days during wet season (ρ = .829). Existence of a winter crop, however, has a moderately strong correlation with wet season start date (ρ = .577). In addition, winter crop yield (ton/ha) has a moderate correlation with wet season end date (ρ = .624), number of rainy days during the wet season (ρ = .492), and during the dry season (ρ = .410). Future work will assess which other factors influence cropping intensity (e.g. access to irrigation among many other), since a complex interplay of bio-physical and socio-economic factors governs the decision-making at the farm-level, ultimately leading to inter-annual variability in cropping intensity and/or yield.

Climate variability controls on unsaturated water and chemical movement, High Plains aquifer, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gurdak, J.J.; Hanson, R.T.; McMahon, P.B.; Bruce, B.W.; McCray, J.E.; Thyne, G.D.; Reedy, R.C.

2007-01-01

Responses in the vadose zone and groundwater to interannual, interdecadal, and multidecadal climate variability have important implications for groundwater resource sustainability, yet they are poorly documented and not well understood in most aquifers of the USA. This investigation systematically examines the role of interannual to multidecadal climate variability on groundwater levels, deep infiltration (3-23 m) events, and downward displacement (>1 m) of chloride and nitrate reservoirs in thick (15-50 m) vadose zones across the regionally extensive High Plains aquifer. Such vadose zone responses are unexpected across much of the aquifer given a priori that unsaturated total-potential profiles indicate upward water movement from the water table toward the root zone, mean annual potential evapotranspiration exceeds mean annual precipitation, and millennia-scale evapoconcentration results in substantial vadose zone chloride and nitrate reservoirs. Using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to reconstruct precipitation and groundwater level time-series components, variability was identified in all time series as partially coincident with known climate cycles, such as the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) (10-25 yr) and the El Nin??o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) (2-6 yr). Using these lag-correlated hydrologic time series, a new method is demonstrated to estimate climate-varying unsaturated water flux. The results suggest the importance of interannual to interdecadal climate variability on water-flux estimation in thick vadose zones and provide better understanding of the climate-induced transients responsible for the observed deep infiltration and chemical-mobilization events. Based on these results, we discuss implications for climate-related sustainability of the High Plains aquifer. ?? Soil Science Society of America.

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Robertson, Franklin R.

2003-01-01

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and detail their impact on estimates of how ENSO events perturb the tropical rainfall. We will place these results in perspective by considering requirements for precipitation accuracy for global climate variability and change studies involving ENSO, monsoon dynamics and variations, and climate model improvement and validation. The discussion will conclude with an assessment of the implications of these findings for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) requirements.

Cold Regime Interannual Variability of Primary and Secondary Producer Community Composition in the Southeastern Bering Sea

PubMed Central

Stauffer, Beth A.; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I.

2015-01-01

Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009–2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing climate scenarios. PMID:26110822

Investigating the Interannual Variability of the Circulation and Water Mass Formation in the Red Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sofianos, S. S.; Papadopoulos, V. P.; Denaxa, D.; Abualnaja, Y.

2014-12-01

The interannual variability of the circulation and water mass formation in the Red Sea is investigated with the use of a numerical model and the combination of satellite and in-situ observations. The response of Red Sea to the large-scale variability of atmospheric forcing is studied through a 30-years simulation experiment, using MICOM model. The modeling results demonstrate significant trends and variability that are mainly located in the central and northern parts of the basin. On the other hand, the exchange pattern between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean at the strait of Bab el Mandeb presents very weak interannual variability. The results verify the regularity of the water mass formation processes in the northern Red Sea but also show significant variability of the circulation and thermohaline conditions in the areas of formation. Enhanced water mass formation conditions are observed during specific years of the simulation (approximately five years apart). Analysis of recent warm and cold events in the northernmost part of the basin, based on a combination of atmospheric reanalysis results and oceanic satellite and in-situ observations, shows the importance of the cyclonic gyre that is prevailing in this part of the basin. This gyre can effectively influence the sea surface temperature (SST) and intensify or mitigate the winter effect of the atmospheric forcing. Upwelling induced by persistent periods of the gyre functioning drops the SST over the northernmost part of the Red Sea and can produce colder than normal winter SST even without extreme atmospheric forcing. These mechanisms are crucial for the formation of intermediate and deep water masses in the Red Sea and the strength of the subsequent thermohaline cells.

Variability of Springtime Transpacific Pollution Transport During 2000-2006: The INTEX-5 Mission in the Context of Previous Years

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pfister, G. G.; Emmons, L. K.; Edwards, D. P.; Arellano, A.; Sachse, G.; Campos, T.

2010-01-01

We analyze the transport of pollution across the Pacific during the NASA INTEX-B (Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment Part 8) campaign in spring 2006 and examine how this year compares to the time period for 2000 through 2006. In addition to aircraft measurements of carbon monoxide (CO) collected during INTEX-B, we include in this study multi-year satellite retrievals of CO from the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere (MOPITT) instrument and simulations from the chemistry transport model MOZART-4. Model tracers are used to examine the contributions of different source regions and source types to pollution levels over the Pacific. Additional modeling studies are performed to separate the impacts of inter-annual variability in meteorology and .dynamics from changes in source strength. interannual variability in the tropospheric CO burden over the Pacific and the US as estimated from the MOPITT data range up to 7% and a somewhat smaller estimate (5%) is derived from the model. When keeping the emissions in the model constant between years, the year-to-year changes are reduced (2%), but show that in addition to changes in emissions, variable meteorological conditions also impact transpacific pollution transport. We estimate that about 113 of the variability in the tropospheric CO loading over the contiguous US is explained by changes in emissions and about 213 by changes in meteorology and transport. Biomass burning sources are found to be a larger driver for inter-annual variability in the CO loading compared to fossil and biofuel sources or photochemical CO production even though their absolute contributions are smaller. Source contribution analysis shows that the aircraft sampling during INTEX-B was fairly representative of the larger scale region, but with a slight bias towards higher influence from Asian contributions.

A Fiji multi-coral δ18O composite approach to obtaining a more accurate reconstruction of the last two-centuries of the ocean-climate variability in the South Pacific Convergence Zone region

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dassié, Emilie P.; Linsley, Braddock K.; Corrège, Thierry; Wu, Henry C.; Lemley, Gavin M.; Howe, Steve; Cabioch, Guy

2014-12-01

The limited availability of oceanographic data in the tropical Pacific Ocean prior to the satellite era makes coral-based climate reconstructions a key tool for extending the instrumental record back in time, thereby providing a much needed test for climate models and projections. We have generated a unique regional network consisting of five Porites coral δ18O time series from different locations in the Fijian archipelago. Our results indicate that using a minimum of three Porites coral δ18O records from Fiji is statistically sufficient to obtain a reliable signal for climate reconstruction, and that application of an approach used in tree ring studies is a suitable tool to determine this number. The coral δ18O composite indicates that while sea surface temperature (SST) variability is the primary driver of seasonal δ18O variability in these Fiji corals, annual average coral δ18O is more closely correlated to sea surface salinity (SSS) as previously reported. Our results highlight the importance of water mass advection in controlling Fiji coral δ18O and salinity variability at interannual and decadal time scales despite being located in the heavy rainfall region of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). The Fiji δ18O composite presents a secular freshening and warming trend since the 1850s coupled with changes in both interannual (IA) and decadal/interdecadal (D/I) variance. The changes in IA and D/I variance suggest a re-organization of climatic variability in the SPCZ region beginning in the late 1800s to period of a more dominant interannual variability, which could correspond to a southeast expansion of the SPCZ.

Sensitivity of crop cover to climate variability: insights from two Indian agro-ecoregions.

PubMed

Mondal, Pinki; Jain, Meha; DeFries, Ruth S; Galford, Gillian L; Small, Christopher

2015-01-15

Crop productivity in India varies greatly with inter-annual climate variability and is highly dependent on monsoon rainfall and temperature. The sensitivity of yields to future climate variability varies with crop type, access to irrigation and other biophysical and socio-economic factors. To better understand sensitivities to future climate, this study focuses on agro-ecological subregions in Central and Western India that span a range of crops, irrigation, biophysical conditions and socioeconomic characteristics. Climate variability is derived from remotely-sensed data products, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM - precipitation) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS - temperature). We examined green-leaf phenologies as proxy for crop productivity using the MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) from 2000 to 2012. Using both monsoon and winter growing seasons, we assessed phenological sensitivity to inter-annual variability in precipitation and temperature patterns. Inter-annual EVI phenology anomalies ranged from -25% to 25%, with some highly anomalous values up to 200%. Monsoon crop phenology in the Central India site is highly sensitive to climate, especially the timing of the start and end of the monsoon and intensity of precipitation. In the Western India site, monsoon crop phenology is less sensitive to precipitation variability, yet shows considerable fluctuations in monsoon crop productivity across the years. Temperature is critically important for winter productivity across a range of crop and management types, such that irrigation might not provide a sufficient buffer against projected temperature increases. Better access to weather information and usage of climate-resilient crop types would play pivotal role in maintaining future productivity. Effective strategies to adapt to projected climate changes in the coming decades would also need to be tailored to regional biophysical and socio-economic conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Role of Low-Level, Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris Euphrates Headwaters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Evans, Jason; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability in the Tigris Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (1983 - 2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days, when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

The role of low-level terrain-induced jets in rainfall variability in Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters

PubMed Central

Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Evans, Jason; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2018-01-01

Rainfall variability in the Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, we have implemented the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, driven by NCEP/DOE R2, to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle-East. The extended simulation period (1983–2013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRF’s ability to resolve two low-level terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in NCEP/DOE: one parallel to western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the East Turkish Highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days: when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50% of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation. PMID:29726552

Cold Regime interannual variability of primary and secondary producer community composition in the southeastern Bering Sea.

PubMed

Stauffer, Beth A; Miksis-Olds, Jennifer; Goes, Joaquim I

2015-01-01

Variability of hydrographic conditions and primary and secondary productivity between cold and warm climatic regimes in the Bering Sea has been the subject of much study in recent years, while interannual variability within a single regime and across multiple trophic levels has been less well-documented. Measurements from an instrumented mooring on the southeastern shelf of the Bering Sea were analyzed for the spring-to-summer transitions within the cold regime years of 2009-2012 to investigate the interannual variability of hydrographic conditions, primary producer biomass, and acoustically-derived secondary producer and consumer abundance and community structure. Hydrographic conditions in 2012 were significantly different than in 2009, 2010, and 2011, driven largely by increased ice extent and thickness, later ice retreat, and earlier stratification of the water column. Primary producer biomass was more tightly coupled to hydrographic conditions in 2012 than in 2009 or 2011, and shallow and mid-column phytoplankton blooms tended to occur independent of one another. There was a high degree of variability in the relationships between different classes of secondary producers and hydrographic conditions, evidence of significant intra-consumer interactions, and trade-offs between different consumer size classes in each year. Phytoplankton blooms stimulated different populations of secondary producers in each year, and summer consumer populations appeared to determine dominant populations in the subsequent spring. Overall, primary producers and secondary producers were more tightly coupled to each other and to hydrographic conditions in the coldest year compared to the warmer years. The highly variable nature of the interactions between the atmospherically-driven hydrographic environment, primary and secondary producers, and within food webs underscores the need to revisit how climatic regimes within the Bering Sea are defined and predicted to function given changing climate scenarios.

The Role of Low-Level Terrain-Induced Jets in Rainfall Variability in Tigris-Euphrates Headwaters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dezfuli, Amin K.; Zaitchik, Benjamin F.; Badr, Hamada S.; Evans, Jason; Peters-Lidard, Christa D.

2017-01-01

Rainfall variability in the Tigris-Euphrates headwaters is a result of interaction between topography and meteorological features at a range of spatial scales. Here, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, driven by the NCEPDOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2), has been implemented to better understand these interactions. Simulations were performed over a domain covering most of the Middle East. The extended simulation period (19832013) enables us to study seasonality, interannual variability, spatial variability, and extreme events of rainfall. Results showed that the annual cycle of precipitation produced by WRF agrees much more closely with observations than does R-2. This was particularly evident during the transition months of April and October, which were further examined to study the underlying physical mechanisms. In both months, WRF improves representation of interannual variability relative to R-2, with a substantially larger benefit in April. This improvement results primarily from WRFs ability to resolve two low-level, terrain-induced flows in the region that are either absent or weak in R-2: one parallel to the western edge of the Zagros Mountains, and one along the east Turkish highlands. The first shows a complete reversal in its direction during wet and dry days: when flowing southeasterly it transports moisture from the Persian Gulf to the region, and when flowing northwesterly it blocks moisture and transports it away from the region. The second is more directly related to synoptic-scale systems and carries moist, warm air from the Mediterranean and Red Seas toward the region. The combined contribution of these flows explains about 50 of interannual variability in both WRF and observations for April and October precipitation.

Zooplankton time-series in the Balearic Sea (Western Mediterranean): Variability during the decade 1994 2003

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernández de Puelles, Maria Luz; Alemany, Francisco; Jansá, Javier

2007-08-01

Studies of plankton time-series from the Balearic islands waters are presented for the past decade, with main emphasis on the variability of zooplankton and how it relates to the environment. The seasonal and interannual patterns of temperature, salinity, nutrients, chlorophyll concentration and zooplankton abundance are described with data obtained between 1994 and 2003. Samples were collected every 10 days at a monitoring station in the Mallorca channel, an area with marked hydrographic variability in the Western Mediterranean. Mesoscale variability was also assessed using data from monthly sampling survey carried out between 1994 and 1999 in a three station transect located in the same study area. The copepods were the most abundant group with three higher peaks (March, May and September) distinguished during the annual cycle and a clear coastal-offshore decreasing gradient. Analysis of the zooplankton community revealed two distinct periods: the mixing period during winter and early spring, where copepods, siphonophores and ostracods were most abundant and, the stratified period characterised by an increase of cladocerans and meroplankton abundances. Remarkable interannual zooplankton variability was observed in relation to hydrographic regime with higher abundances of main groups during cool years, when northern Mediterranean waters prevailed in the area. The warmer years showed the lowest zooplankton abundances, associated with the inflow of less saline and nutrient-depleted Atlantic Waters. Moreover, the correlation found between copepod abundance and large scale climatic factors (e.g., NAO) suggested that they act as main driver of the zooplankton variability. Therefore, the seasonal but particularly the interannual variation observed in plankton abundance and structure patterns of the Balearic Sea seems to be highly modulated by large-scale forcing and can be considered an ideal place where to investigate potential consequences of global climate change.

A New Discrete Element Sea-Ice Model for Earth System Modeling

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Turner, Adrian Keith

Sea ice forms a frozen crust of sea water oating in high-latitude oceans. It is a critical component of the Earth system because its formation helps to drive the global thermohaline circulation, and its seasonal waxing and waning in the high north and Southern Ocean signi cantly affects planetary albedo. Usually 4{6% of Earth's marine surface is covered by sea ice at any one time, which limits the exchange of heat, momentum, and mass between the atmosphere and ocean in the polar realms. Snow accumulates on sea ice and inhibits its vertical growth, increases its albedo, and contributes to pooledmore » water in melt ponds that darken the Arctic ice surface in the spring. Ice extent and volume are subject to strong seasonal, inter-annual and hemispheric variations, and climatic trends, which Earth System Models (ESMs) are challenged to simulate accurately (Stroeve et al., 2012; Stocker et al., 2013). This is because there are strong coupled feedbacks across the atmosphere-ice-ocean boundary layers, including the ice-albedo feedback, whereby a reduced ice cover leads to increased upper ocean heating, further enhancing sea-ice melt and reducing incident solar radiation re ected back into the atmosphere (Perovich et al., 2008). A reduction in perennial Arctic sea-ice during the satellite era has been implicated in mid-latitude weather changes, including over North America (Overland et al., 2015). Meanwhile, most ESMs have been unable to simulate observed inter-annual variability and trends in Antarctic sea-ice extent during the same period (Gagne et al., 2014).« less

Gap winds and their effects on regional oceanography Part II: Kodiak Island, Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ladd, Carol; Cheng, Wei; Salo, Sigrid

2016-10-01

Frequent gap winds, defined here as offshore-directed flow channeled through mountain gaps, have been observed near Kodiak Island in the Gulf of Alaska (GOA). Gap winds from the Iliamna Lake gap were investigated using QuikSCAT wind data. The influence of these wind events on the regional ocean was examined using satellite and in situ data combined with Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) model runs. Gap winds influence the entire shelf width (> 200 km) northeast of Kodiak Island and extend an additional 150 km off-shelf. Due to strong gradients in the along-shelf direction, they can result in vertical velocities in the ocean of over 20 m d-1 due to Ekman pumping. The wind events also disrupt flow of the Alaska Coastal Current (ACC), resulting in decreased flow down Shelikof Strait and increased velocities on the outer shelf. This disruption of the ACC has implications for freshwater transport into the Bering Sea. The oceanographic response to gap winds may influence the survival of larval fishes as Arrowtooth Flounder recruitment is negatively correlated with the interannual frequency of gap-wind events, and Pacific Cod recruitment is positively correlated. The frequency of offshore directed winds exhibits a strong seasonal cycle averaging 7 days per month during winter and 2 days per month during summer. Interannual variability is correlated with the Pacific North America Index and shows a linear trend, increasing by 1.35 days per year. An accompanying paper discusses part I of our study (Ladd and Cheng, 2016) focusing on gap-wind events flowing out of Cross Sound in the eastern GOA.

ENSO Bred Vectors in Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yang, S. C.; Cai, Ming; Kalnay, E.; Rienecker, M.; Yuan, G.; Toth, ZA.

2004-01-01

The breeding method has been implemented in the NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction Project (NSIPP) Coupled General Circulation Model (CGCM) with the goal of improving operational seasonal to interannual climate predictions through ensemble forecasting and data assimilation. The coupled instability as cap'tured by the breeding method is the first attempt to isolate the evolving ENSO instability and its corresponding global atmospheric response in a fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. Our results show that the growth rate of the coupled bred vectors (BV) peaks at about 3 months before a background ENSO event. The dominant growing BV modes are reminiscent of the background ENSO anomalies and show a strong tropical response with wind/SST/thermocline interrelated in a manner similar to the background ENSO mode. They exhibit larger amplitudes in the eastern tropical Pacific, reflecting the natural dynamical sensitivity associated with the presence of the shallow thermocline. Moreover, the extratropical perturbations associated with these coupled BV modes reveal the variations related to the atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with background ENSO variability, e.g. over the North Pacific and North America. A similar experiment was carried out with the NCEP/CFS03 CGCM. Comparisons between bred vectors from the NSIPP CGCM and NCEP/CFS03 CGCM demonstrate the robustness of the results. Our results strongly suggest that the breeding method can serve as a natural filter to identify the slowly varying, coupled instabilities in a coupled GCM, which can be used to construct ensemble perturbations for ensemble forecasts and to estimate the coupled background error covariance for coupled data assimilation.

Modulation of equatorial Pacific westerly/easterly wind events by the Madden-Julian oscillation and convectively-coupled Rossby waves

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Puy, Martin; Vialard, J.; Lengaigne, M.; Guilyardi, E.

2016-04-01

Synoptic wind events in the equatorial Pacific strongly influence the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) evolution. This paper characterizes the spatio-temporal distribution of Easterly (EWEs) and Westerly Wind Events (WWEs) and quantifies their relationship with intraseasonal and interannual large-scale climate variability. We unambiguously demonstrate that the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and Convectively-coupled Rossby Waves (CRW) modulate both WWEs and EWEs occurrence probability. 86 % of WWEs occur within convective MJO and/or CRW phases and 83 % of EWEs occur within the suppressed phase of MJO and/or CRW. 41 % of WWEs and 26 % of EWEs are in particular associated with the combined occurrence of a CRW/MJO, far more than what would be expected from a random distribution (3 %). Wind events embedded within MJO phases also have a stronger impact on the ocean, due to a tendency to have a larger amplitude, zonal extent and longer duration. These findings are robust irrespective of the wind events and MJO/CRW detection methods. While WWEs and EWEs behave rather symmetrically with respect to MJO/CRW activity, the impact of ENSO on wind events is asymmetrical. The WWEs occurrence probability indeed increases when the warm pool is displaced eastward during El Niño events, an increase that can partly be related to interannual modulation of the MJO/CRW activity in the western Pacific. On the other hand, the EWEs modulation by ENSO is less robust, and strongly depends on the wind event detection method. The consequences of these results for ENSO predictability are discussed.

The role of drought on wheat yield interannual variability in the Iberian Peninsula from 1929 to 2012.

PubMed

Páscoa, P; Gouveia, C M; Russo, A; Trigo, R M

2017-03-01

The production of wheat in the Iberian Peninsula is strongly affected by climate conditions being particularly vulnerable to interannual changes in precipitation and long-term trends of both rainfall and evapotranspiration. Recent trends in precipitation and temperature point to an increase in dryness in this territory, thus highlighting the need to understand the dependence of wheat yield on climate conditions. The present work aims at studying the relation between wheat yields and drought events in the Iberian Peninsula, using a multiscalar drought index, the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), at various timescales. The effects of the occurrence of dry episodes on wheat yields were analyzed, on regional spatial scale for two subperiods (1929-1985 and 1986-2012). The results show that in western areas, wheat yield is positively affected by dryer conditions, whereas the opposite happens in eastern areas. The winter months have a bigger influence in the west while the east is more dependent on the spring and summer months. Moreover, in the period of 1986-2012, the simultaneous occurrence of low-yield anomalies and dry events reaches values close to 100 % over many provinces. Results suggest that May and June have a strong control on wheat yield, namely, for longer timescales (9 to 12 months). A shift in the dependence of wheat yields on climatic droughts is evidenced by the increase in the area with positive correlation and the decrease in area with negative correlation between wheat yields and SPEI, probably due to the increase of dry events.

Quantifying Interannual Variability for Photovoltaic Systems in PVWatts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ryberg, David Severin; Freeman, Janine; Blair, Nate

2015-10-01

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) PVWatts is a relatively simple tool used by industry and individuals alike to easily estimate the amount of energy a photovoltaic (PV) system will produce throughout the course of a typical year. PVWatts Version 5 has previously been shown to be able to reasonably represent an operating system's output when provided with concurrent weather data, however this type of data is not available when estimating system output during future time frames. For this purpose PVWatts uses weather data from typical meteorological year (TMY) datasets which are available on the NREL website. The TMY filesmore » represent a statistically 'typical' year which by definition excludes anomalous weather patterns and as a result may not provide sufficient quantification of project risk to the financial community. It was therefore desired to quantify the interannual variability associated with TMY files in order to improve the understanding of risk associated with these projects. To begin to understand the interannual variability of a PV project, we simulated two archetypal PV system designs, which are common in the PV industry, in PVWatts using the NSRDB's 1961-1990 historical dataset. This dataset contains measured hourly weather data and spans the thirty years from 1961-1990 for 239 locations in the United States. To note, this historical dataset was used to compose the TMY2 dataset. Using the results of these simulations we computed several statistical metrics which may be of interest to the financial community and normalized the results with respect to the TMY energy prediction at each location, so that these results could be easily translated to similar systems. This report briefly describes the simulation process used and the statistical methodology employed for this project, but otherwise focuses mainly on a sample of our results. A short discussion of these results is also provided. It is our hope that this quantification of the interannual variability of PV systems will provide a starting point for variability considerations in future PV system designs and investigations. however this type of data is not available when estimating system output during future time frames.« less

Temporal variability of the NPP-GPP ratio at seasonal and interannual time scales in a temperate beech forest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campioli, M.; Gielen, B.; Göckede, M.; Papale, D.; Bouriaud, O.; Granier, A.

2011-09-01

The allocation of carbon (C) taken up by the tree canopy for respiration and production of tree organs with different construction and maintenance costs, life span and decomposition rate, crucially affects the residence time of C in forests and their C cycling rate. The carbon-use efficiency, or ratio between net primary production (NPP) and gross primary production (GPP), represents a convenient way to analyse the C allocation at the stand level. In this study, we extend the current knowledge on the NPP-GPP ratio in forests by assessing the temporal variability of the NPP-GPP ratio at interannual (for 8 years) and seasonal (for 1 year) scales for a young temperate beech stand, reporting dynamics for both leaves and woody organs, in particular stems. NPP was determined with biometric methods/litter traps, whereas the GPP was estimated via the eddy covariance micrometeorological technique. The interannual variability of the proportion of C allocated to leaf NPP, wood NPP and leaf plus wood NPP (on average 11% yr-1, 29% yr-1 and 39% yr-1, respectively) was significant among years with up to 12% yr-1 variation in NPP-GPP ratio. Studies focusing on the comparison of NPP-GPP ratio among forests and models using fixed allocation schemes should take into account the possibility of such relevant interannual variability. Multiple linear regressions indicated that the NPP-GPP ratio of leaves and wood significantly correlated with environmental conditions. Previous year drought and air temperature explained about half of the NPP-GPP variability of leaves and wood, respectively, whereas the NPP-GPP ratio was not decreased by severe drought, with large NPP-GPP ratio on 2003 due mainly to low GPP. During the period between early May and mid June, the majority of GPP was allocated to leaf and stem NPP, whereas these sinks were of little importance later on. Improved estimation of seasonal GPP and of the contribution of previous-year reserves to stem growth, as well as reduction of data uncertainty, will be of relevance to increase the accuracy of the seasonal assessment of the NPP-GPP ratio in forests.

New Methods for Estimating Seasonal Potential Climate Predictability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Feng, Xia

This study develops two new statistical approaches to assess the seasonal potential predictability of the observed climate variables. One is the univariate analysis of covariance (ANOCOVA) model, a combination of autoregressive (AR) model and analysis of variance (ANOVA). It has the advantage of taking into account the uncertainty of the estimated parameter due to sampling errors in statistical test, which is often neglected in AR based methods, and accounting for daily autocorrelation that is not considered in traditional ANOVA. In the ANOCOVA model, the seasonal signals arising from external forcing are determined to be identical or not to assess any interannual variability that may exist is potentially predictable. The bootstrap is an attractive alternative method that requires no hypothesis model and is available no matter how mathematically complicated the parameter estimator. This method builds up the empirical distribution of the interannual variance from the resamplings drawn with replacement from the given sample, in which the only predictability in seasonal means arises from the weather noise. These two methods are applied to temperature and water cycle components including precipitation and evaporation, to measure the extent to which the interannual variance of seasonal means exceeds the unpredictable weather noise compared with the previous methods, including Leith-Shukla-Gutzler (LSG), Madden, and Katz. The potential predictability of temperature from ANOCOVA model, bootstrap, LSG and Madden exhibits a pronounced tropical-extratropical contrast with much larger predictability in the tropics dominated by El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) than in higher latitudes where strong internal variability lowers predictability. Bootstrap tends to display highest predictability of the four methods, ANOCOVA lies in the middle, while LSG and Madden appear to generate lower predictability. Seasonal precipitation from ANOCOVA, bootstrap, and Katz, resembling that for temperature, is more predictable over the tropical regions, and less predictable in extropics. Bootstrap and ANOCOVA are in good agreement with each other, both methods generating larger predictability than Katz. The seasonal predictability of evaporation over land bears considerably similarity with that of temperature using ANOCOVA, bootstrap, LSG and Madden. The remote SST forcing and soil moisture reveal substantial seasonality in their relations with the potentially predictable seasonal signals. For selected regions, either SST or soil moisture or both shows significant relationships with predictable signals, hence providing indirect insight on slowly varying boundary processes involved to enable useful seasonal climate predication. A multivariate analysis of covariance (MANOCOVA) model is established to identify distinctive predictable patterns, which are uncorrelated with each other. Generally speaking, the seasonal predictability from multivariate model is consistent with that from ANOCOVA. Besides unveiling the spatial variability of predictability, MANOCOVA model also reveals the temporal variability of each predictable pattern, which could be linked to the periodic oscillations.