Risk Factors for Suicidality among Clients with Schizophrenia.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schwartz, Robert C.; Cohen, Benjamin N.

2001-01-01

Investigates risk factors for current suicidality in clients diagnosed with schizophrenia (N=223). Results indicate that severity of depressive symptoms most strongly correlated with degree of suicidality. Younger age and recent traumatic stress each significantly predicted suicidality independent of depressive symptoms. Suggests that the…

Stable carbon and hydrogen isotope fractionation of dissolved organic groundwater pollutants by equilibrium sorption.

PubMed

Höhener, Patrick; Yu, Xianjing

2012-03-15

Linear free energy relationships (LFERs) were established which relate equilibrium vapor-liquid isotope effects to stable carbon and hydrogen isotope enrichment factors for equilibrium sorption to geosorbents. The LFERs were established for normal, cyclic or branched alkanes, monoaromatic hydrocarbons, and chloroethenes. These LFERs predict that isotopic light compounds sorb more strongly than their heavy counterparts. Defining fractionation as in classical literature by "heavy divided by light", carbon enrichment factors for equilibrium sorption were derived which ranged from -0.13±0.04‰ (benzene) to -0.52±0.19‰ (trichloroethene at 5-15 °C). Hydrogen enrichment factors for sorption of 14 different compounds were between -2.4 and -9.2‰. For perdeuterated hydrocarbons the predicted enrichment factors ranged from -19±5.4‰ (benzene) to -64±30‰ (cyclohexane). Equilibrium sorption experiments with a soil and activated carbon as sorbents were performed in the laboratory for perdeuterocyclohexane and perdeuterotoluene. The measured D/H enrichments agreed with the LFER prediction for both compounds and both sorbents within the uncertainty estimate of the prediction. The results of this work suggest that equilibrium sorption does create only very small isotope shifts for (13)C in groundwater pollutants in aquifers. It is also suggested that deuterium shifts are expected to be higher, especially for strongly sorbing pollutants. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Do dimensional psychopathology measures relate to creative achievement or divergent thinking?

PubMed Central

Zabelina, Darya L.; Condon, David; Beeman, Mark

2014-01-01

Previous research provides disparate accounts of the putative association between creativity and psychopathology, including schizotypy, psychoticism, hypomania, bipolar disorder, ADHD, and autism spectrum disorders. To examine these association, healthy, non-clinical participants completed several psychopathology-spectrum measures, often postulated to associate with creativity: the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire, the Psychoticism scale, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5, the Hypomanic Personality Scale, the Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder scale, the Beck Depression Inventory, and the Autism-Spectrum Quotient. The goal of Study 1 was to evaluate the factor structure of these dimensional psychopathology measures and, in particular, to evaluate the case for a strong general factor(s). None of the factor solutions between 1 and 10 factors provided a strong fit with the data based on the most commonly used metrics. The goal of Study 2 was to determine whether these psychopathology scales predict, independently, two measures of creativity: 1. a measure of participants' real-world creative achievements, and 2. divergent thinking, a laboratory measure of creative cognition. After controlling for academic achievement, psychoticism and hypomania reliably predicted real-world creative achievement and divergent thinking scored with the consensual assessment technique. None of the psychopathology-spectrum scales reliably predicted divergent thinking scored with the manual scoring method. Implications for the potential links between several putative creative processes and risk factors for psychopathology are discussed. PMID:25278919

Do dimensional psychopathology measures relate to creative achievement or divergent thinking?

PubMed

Zabelina, Darya L; Condon, David; Beeman, Mark

2014-01-01

Previous research provides disparate accounts of the putative association between creativity and psychopathology, including schizotypy, psychoticism, hypomania, bipolar disorder, ADHD, and autism spectrum disorders. To examine these association, healthy, non-clinical participants completed several psychopathology-spectrum measures, often postulated to associate with creativity: the Schizotypal Personality Questionnaire, the Psychoticism scale, the Personality Inventory for DSM-5, the Hypomanic Personality Scale, the Attention Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder scale, the Beck Depression Inventory, and the Autism-Spectrum Quotient. The goal of Study 1 was to evaluate the factor structure of these dimensional psychopathology measures and, in particular, to evaluate the case for a strong general factor(s). None of the factor solutions between 1 and 10 factors provided a strong fit with the data based on the most commonly used metrics. The goal of Study 2 was to determine whether these psychopathology scales predict, independently, two measures of creativity: 1. a measure of participants' real-world creative achievements, and 2. divergent thinking, a laboratory measure of creative cognition. After controlling for academic achievement, psychoticism and hypomania reliably predicted real-world creative achievement and divergent thinking scored with the consensual assessment technique. None of the psychopathology-spectrum scales reliably predicted divergent thinking scored with the manual scoring method. Implications for the potential links between several putative creative processes and risk factors for psychopathology are discussed.

Predictive factors for the occurrence of idiopathic menorrhagia: evidence for a hereditary trait.

PubMed

Kuzmina, Natalia; Palmblad, Jan; Mints, Miriam

2011-01-01

The aim of the present study was to assess predictive factors for occurrence of idiopathic menorrhagia (IM), a disease characterized by abnormal endometrial blood vessel morphology. It was hypothesized that IM exhibits familial clustering (suggesting inheritance) and is associated with other vascular abnormalities, primarily cutaneous hemangiomas. Women with IM (n=152) and healthy, regularly menstruating (n=56) women answered a questionnaire concerning menstrual pattern, susceptibility to bleeding and family history of abnormal gynecological bleeding. Factor analysis with principal component extraction was used to separate predictive factors that may be associated with IM. A total of 35 different items were analyzed. A strong association was found between IM and a family history of heavy menstrual bleeding (r=0.68), but not with cutaneous vascular abnormalities. Our results revealed that a family history of heavy menstrual bleeding may have the highest predictive value for the diagnosis of IM, indicating a hereditary trait.

Mammographic density, breast cancer risk and risk prediction

PubMed Central

Vachon, Celine M; van Gils, Carla H; Sellers, Thomas A; Ghosh, Karthik; Pruthi, Sandhya; Brandt, Kathleen R; Pankratz, V Shane

2007-01-01

In this review, we examine the evidence for mammographic density as an independent risk factor for breast cancer, describe the risk prediction models that have incorporated density, and discuss the current and future implications of using mammographic density in clinical practice. Mammographic density is a consistent and strong risk factor for breast cancer in several populations and across age at mammogram. Recently, this risk factor has been added to existing breast cancer risk prediction models, increasing the discriminatory accuracy with its inclusion, albeit slightly. With validation, these models may replace the existing Gail model for clinical risk assessment. However, absolute risk estimates resulting from these improved models are still limited in their ability to characterize an individual's probability of developing cancer. Promising new measures of mammographic density, including volumetric density, which can be standardized using full-field digital mammography, will likely result in a stronger risk factor and improve accuracy of risk prediction models. PMID:18190724

Predictors and Mediators of Sustainable Collaboration and Implementation in Comprehensive School Health Promotion

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pucher, Katharina K.; Candel, Math J. J. M.; Boot, Nicole M. W. M.; de Vries, Nanne K.

2017-01-01

Purpose: The Diagnosis of Sustainable Collaboration (DISC) model (Leurs et al., 2008) specifies five factors (i.e. project management, change management, context, external factors, and stakeholders' support) which predict whether collaboration becomes strong and stable. The purpose of this paper is to study the dynamics of these factors in a study…

Improving risk assessment in schizophrenia: epidemiological investigation of criminal history factors

PubMed Central

Witt, Katrina; Lichtenstein, Paul; Fazel, Seena

2015-01-01

Background Violence risk assessment in schizophrenia relies heavily on criminal history factors. Aims To investigate which criminal history factors are most strongly associated with violent crime in schizophrenia. Method A total of 13 806 individuals (8891 men and 4915 women) with two or more hospital admissions for schizophrenia were followed up for violent convictions. Multivariate hazard ratios for 15 criminal history factors included in different risk assessment tools were calculated. The incremental predictive validity of these factors was estimated using tests of discrimination, calibration and reclassification. Results Over a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 17.3% of men (n = 1535) and 5.7% of women (n = 281) were convicted of a violent offence. Criminal history factors most strongly associated with subsequent violence for both men and women were a previous conviction for a violent offence; for assault, illegal threats and/or intimidation; and imprisonment. However, only a previous conviction for a violent offence was associated with incremental predictive validity in both genders following adjustment for young age and comorbid substance use disorder. Conclusions Clinical and actuarial approaches to assess violence risk can be improved if included risk factors are tested using multiple measures of performance. PMID:25657352

Improving risk assessment in schizophrenia: epidemiological investigation of criminal history factors.

PubMed

Witt, Katrina; Lichtenstein, Paul; Fazel, Seena

2015-05-01

Violence risk assessment in schizophrenia relies heavily on criminal history factors. To investigate which criminal history factors are most strongly associated with violent crime in schizophrenia. A total of 13 806 individuals (8891 men and 4915 women) with two or more hospital admissions for schizophrenia were followed up for violent convictions. Multivariate hazard ratios for 15 criminal history factors included in different risk assessment tools were calculated. The incremental predictive validity of these factors was estimated using tests of discrimination, calibration and reclassification. Over a mean follow-up of 12.0 years, 17.3% of men (n = 1535) and 5.7% of women (n = 281) were convicted of a violent offence. Criminal history factors most strongly associated with subsequent violence for both men and women were a previous conviction for a violent offence; for assault, illegal threats and/or intimidation; and imprisonment. However, only a previous conviction for a violent offence was associated with incremental predictive validity in both genders following adjustment for young age and comorbid substance use disorder. Clinical and actuarial approaches to assess violence risk can be improved if included risk factors are tested using multiple measures of performance. © The Royal College of Psychiatrists 2015.

Predicting Middle Level State Standardized Test Results Using Family and Community Demographic Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tienken, Christopher H.; Colella, Anthony; Angelillo, Christian; Fox, Meredith; McCahill, Kevin R.; Wolfe, Adam

2017-01-01

The use of standardized test results to drive school administrator evaluations pervades education policymaking in more than 40 states. However, the results of state standardized tests are strongly influenced by non-school factors. The models of best fit (n = 18) from this correlational, explanatory, longitudinal study predicted accurately the…

Parenting, Peers, and Perceived Norms: What Predicts Attitudes toward Sex among Early Adolescents?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cox, Ronald B., Jr.; Shreffler, Karina M.; Merten, Michael J.; Schwerdtfeger Gallus, Kami L.; Dowdy, Jamie L.

2015-01-01

Although attitudes strongly predict later sexual behaviors, few studies have investigated the factors that influence early adolescent attitudes toward sex. Using a general population sample of urban seventh-grade students (N = 1,736), we examined how supportive parenting, television viewing, perceived social norms, and having a friend and/or…

Predictors of Satisfaction With Doctor and Nurse Communication: A National Study.

PubMed

McFarland, Daniel C; Johnson Shen, Megan; Holcombe, Randall F

2017-10-01

Prior research indicates that effective communication between medical providers and patients is associated with a number of positive patient outcomes, yet little research has examined how ecological factors (e.g., hospital size, local demographics) influence patients' reported satisfaction with doctor and nurse communication. Given the current emphasis on improving patient satisfaction in hospitals across the United States, understanding these factors is critical to interpreting patient satisfaction and improving patient-centered communication, particularly in diverse and dense populations. As such, this study examined county-level data including population density, population diversity, and hospital structural factors as predictors of patient satisfaction with doctor and nurse communication. Hospital Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (HCAHPS), U.S. Census data, and number of hospital beds were obtained from publicly available Hospital Compare, U.S. Census, and American Hospital Directory websites, respectively. Multivariate regression modeling was performed for the individual dimensions of HCAHPS scores assessing doctor and nurse communication. Standardized partial regression coefficients were used to assess strengths of county-level predictors. County-level factors accounted for 30% and 16% of variability in patient satisfaction with doctor and nurse communication, respectively. College education (β = 0.45) and White ethnicity (β = 0.25) most strongly predicted a favorable rating of doctor and nurse communication, respectively. Primary language (non-English speaking; β = -0.50) most strongly predicted an unfavorable rating of doctor communication, while number of hospital beds (β = -0.16) and foreign-born (β = -0.16) most strongly predicted an unfavorable rating of nurse communication. County-level predictors should be considered when interpreting patient satisfaction with doctor and nurse communication and designing multilevel patient-centered communication improvement strategies. Discordant findings with individual-level factors should be explored further.

The influence of mindfulness, self-compassion, psychological flexibility, and posttraumatic stress disorder on disability and quality of life over time in war veterans.

PubMed

Meyer, Eric C; Frankfurt, Sheila B; Kimbrel, Nathan A; DeBeer, Bryann B; Gulliver, Suzy B; Morrisette, Sandra B

2018-07-01

Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) strongly predicts greater disability and lower quality of life (QOL). Mindfulness-based and other third-wave behavior therapy interventions improve well-being by enhancing mindfulness, self-compassion, and psychological flexibility. We hypothesized that these mechanisms of therapeutic change would comprise a single latent factor that would predict disability and QOL after accounting for PTSD symptom severity. Iraq and Afghanistan war veterans (N = 117) completed a study of predictors of successful reintegration. Principal axis factor analysis tested whether mindfulness, self-compassion, and psychological flexibility comprised a single latent factor. Hierarchical regression tested whether this factor predicted disability and QOL 1 year later. Mindfulness, self-compassion, and psychological flexibility comprised a single factor that predicted disability and QOL after accounting for PTSD symptom severity. PTSD symptoms remained a significant predictor of disability but not QOL. Targeting these mechanisms may help veterans achieve functional recovery, even in the presence of PTSD symptoms. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Application of GA-SVM method with parameter optimization for landslide development prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, X. Z.; Kong, J. M.

2013-10-01

Prediction of landslide development process is always a hot issue in landslide research. So far, many methods for landslide displacement series prediction have been proposed. Support vector machine (SVM) has been proved to be a novel algorithm with good performance. However, the performance strongly depends on the right selection of the parameters (C and γ) of SVM model. In this study, we presented an application of GA-SVM method with parameter optimization in landslide displacement rate prediction. We selected a typical large-scale landslide in some hydro - electrical engineering area of Southwest China as a case. On the basis of analyzing the basic characteristics and monitoring data of the landslide, a single-factor GA-SVM model and a multi-factor GA-SVM model of the landslide were built. Moreover, the models were compared with single-factor and multi-factor SVM models of the landslide. The results show that, the four models have high prediction accuracies, but the accuracies of GA-SVM models are slightly higher than those of SVM models and the accuracies of multi-factor models are slightly higher than those of single-factor models for the landslide prediction. The accuracy of the multi-factor GA-SVM models is the highest, with the smallest RSME of 0.0009 and the biggest RI of 0.9992.

Hierarchical Status Predicts Behavioral Vulnerability and Nucleus Accumbens Metabolic Profile Following Chronic Social Defeat Stress.

PubMed

Larrieu, Thomas; Cherix, Antoine; Duque, Aranzazu; Rodrigues, João; Lei, Hongxia; Gruetter, Rolf; Sandi, Carmen

2017-07-24

Extensive data highlight the existence of major differences in individuals' susceptibility to stress [1-4]. While genetic factors [5, 6] and exposure to early life stress [7, 8] are key components for such neurobehavioral diversity, intriguing observations revealed individual differences in response to stress in inbred mice [9-12]. This raised the possibility that other factors might be critical in stress vulnerability. A key challenge in the field is to identify non-invasively risk factors for vulnerability to stress. Here, we investigated whether behavioral factors, emerging from preexisting dominance hierarchies, could predict vulnerability to chronic stress [9, 13-16]. We applied a chronic social defeat stress (CSDS) model of depression in C57BL/6J mice to investigate the predictive power of hierarchical status to pinpoint which individuals will exhibit susceptibility to CSDS. Given that the high social status of dominant mice would be the one particularly challenged by CSDS, we predicted and found that dominant individuals were the ones showing a strong susceptibility profile as indicated by strong social avoidance following CSDS, while subordinate mice were not affected. Data from 1 H-NMR spectroscopy revealed that the metabolic profile in the nucleus accumbens (NAc) relates to social status and vulnerability to stress. Under basal conditions, subordinates show lower levels of energy-related metabolites compared to dominants. In subordinates, but not dominants, levels of these metabolites were increased after exposure to CSDS. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study that identifies non-invasively the origin of behavioral risk factors predictive of stress-induced depression-like behaviors associated with metabolic changes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Species richness and patterns of invasion in plants, birds, and fishes in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Barnett, David; Flather, Curtis; Fuller, Pamela L.; Peterjohn, Bruce G.; Kartesz, John; Master, Lawrence L.

2006-01-01

We quantified broad-scale patterns of species richness and species density (mean # species/km2) for native and non-indigenous plants, birds, and fishes in the continental USA and Hawaii. We hypothesized that the species density of native and non-indigenous taxa would generally decrease in northern latitudes and higher elevations following declines in potential evapotranspiration, mean temperature, and precipitation. County data on plants (n = 3004 counties) and birds (n=3074 counties), and drainage (6 HUC) data on fishes (n = 328 drainages) showed that the densities of native and non-indigenous species were strongly positively correlated for plant species (r = 0.86, P < 0.0001), bird species (r = 0.93, P<0.0001), and fish species (r = 0.41, P<0.0001). Multiple regression models showed that the densities of native plant and bird species could be strongly predicted (adj. R2 = 0.66 in both models) at county levels, but fish species densities were less predictable at drainage levels (adj. R2 = 0.31,P<0.0001). Similarly, non-indigenous plant and bird species densities were strongly predictable (adj. R2 = 0.84 and 0.91 respectively), but non-indigenous fish species density was less predictable (adj. R2 = 0.38). County level hotspots of native and non-indigenous plants, birds, and fishes were located in low elevation areas close to the coast with high precipitation and productivity (vegetation carbon). We show that (1) native species richness can be moderately well predicted with abiotic factors; (2) human populations have tended to settle in areas rich in native species; and (3) the richness and density of non-indigenous plant, bird, and fish species can be accurately predicted from biotic and abiotic factors largely because they are positively correlated to native species densities. We conclude that while humans facilitate the initial establishment, invasions of non-indigenous species, the spread and subsequent distributions of non-indigenous species may be controlled largely by environmental factors.

Time course of neck-shoulder pain among workers: A longitudinal latent class growth analysis.

PubMed

Hallman, David M; Rasmussen, Charlotte D Nørregaard; Jørgensen, Marie Birk; Holtermann, Andreas

2018-01-01

Objectives The aims of this study were to (i) identify trajectories of neck-shoulder pain (NSP) over one year in an occupational population and (ii) determine whether these trajectories are predicted by NSP characteristics as well as personal and occupational factors at baseline. Methods This longitudinal study was conducted among Danish workers (N=748) from 2012-2014. Text messages were used to collect frequent data on NSP over one year (14 waves in total). Peak NSP intensity in the past month was rated on a 0-10 numeric scale. A baseline questionnaire covered NSP characteristics (pain intensity, duration, comorbidity, pain medication, and pain interference) as well as personal (age, gender, body mass index) and occupational (seniority, work type, physical strain at work) factors. Latent class growth analysis was used to distinguish trajectories of NSP. Multivariate regression models with odds ratios (OR) were constructed to predict trajectories of NSP. Results Six distinct trajectories of NSP were identified (asymptomatic 11%, very low NSP 10%, low recovering NSP 18%, moderate recovering NSP 28%, strong fluctuating NSP 24% and severe persistent NSP 9% of the workers). Female gender, age, physical strain at work, NSP intensity and duration, pain medication, and pain interference in daily work at baseline were positively associated with severe persistent NSP and strong fluctuating NSP (all P<0.05). Altogether, personal and occupational factors accounted for 14% of the variance, while NSP characteristics accounted for 54%. Conclusions In an occupational sample, six distinct trajectories of NSP were identified. Physical strain at work appears to be a pertinent occupational factor predicting strong fluctuating and severe persistent NSP.

Examining the Job Search-Turnover Relationship: The Role of Embeddedness, Job Satisfaction, and Available Alternatives

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Swider, Brian W.; Boswell, Wendy R.; Zimmerman, Ryan D.

2011-01-01

This study examined factors that may help explain under what conditions employee job search effort may most strongly (or weakly) predict subsequent turnover. As predicted, the job search-turnover relationship was stronger when employees had lower levels of job embeddedness and job satisfaction and higher levels of available alternatives. These…

Peer Deviance, Parental Divorce, and Genetic Risk in the Prediction of Drug Abuse in a Nationwide Swedish Sample

PubMed Central

Kendler, Kenneth S.; Ohlsson, Henrik; Sundquist, Kristina; Sundquist, Jan

2014-01-01

IMPORTANCE Peer deviance (PD) strongly predicts externalizing psychopathologic conditions but has not been previously assessable in population cohorts. We sought to develop such an index of PD and to clarify its effects on risk of drug abuse (DA). OBJECTIVES To examine how strongly PD increases the risk of DA and whether this community-level liability indicator interacts with key DA risk factors at the individual and family levels. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Studies of future DA registration in 1 401 698 Swedish probands born from January 1, 1970, through December 31, 1985, and their adolescent peers in approximately 9200 small community areas. Peer deviance was defined as the proportion of individuals born within 5 years of the proband living in the same small community when the proband was 15 years old who eventually were registered for DA. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Drug abuse recorded in medical, legal, or pharmacy registry records. RESULTS Peer deviance was associated with future DA in the proband, with rates of DA in older and male peers more strongly predictive than in younger or female peers. The predictive power of PD was only slightly attenuated by adding measures of community deprivation, collective efficacy, or family socioeconomic status. Probands whose parents were divorced were more sensitive to the pathogenic effects of high PD environments. A robust positive interaction was also seen between genetic risk of DA (indexed by rates of DA in first-, second-, and third-degree relatives) and PD exposure. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE With sufficient data, PD can be measured in populations and strongly predicts DA. In a nationwide sample, risk factors at the level of the individual (genetic vulnerability), family (parental loss), and community (PD) contribute substantially to risk of DA. Individuals at elevated DA risk because of parental divorce or high genetic liability are more sensitive to the pathogenic effects of PD. Although the effect of our PD measure on DA liability cannot be explained by standard measures of community or family risk, we cannot, with available data, discriminate definitively between the effect of true peer effects and other unmeasured risk factors. PMID:24576925

Peer deviance, parental divorce, and genetic risk in the prediction of drug abuse in a nationwide Swedish sample: evidence of environment-environment and gene-environment interaction.

PubMed

Kendler, Kenneth S; Ohlsson, Henrik; Sundquist, Kristina; Sundquist, Jan

2014-04-01

Peer deviance (PD) strongly predicts externalizing psychopathologic conditions but has not been previously assessable in population cohorts. We sought to develop such an index of PD and to clarify its effects on risk of drug abuse (DA). To examine how strongly PD increases the risk of DA and whether this community-level liability indicator interacts with key DA risk factors at the individual and family levels. Studies of future DA registration in 1,401,698 Swedish probands born from January 1, 1970, through December 31, 1985, and their adolescent peers in approximately 9200 small community areas. Peer deviance was defined as the proportion of individuals born within 5 years of the proband living in the same small community when the proband was 15 years old who eventually were registered for DA. Drug abuse recorded in medical, legal, or pharmacy registry records. Peer deviance was associated with future DA in the proband, with rates of DA in older and male peers more strongly predictive than in younger or female peers. The predictive power of PD was only slightly attenuated by adding measures of community deprivation, collective efficacy, or family socioeconomic status. Probands whose parents were divorced were more sensitive to the pathogenic effects of high PD environments. A robust positive interaction was also seen between genetic risk of DA (indexed by rates of DA in first-, second-, and third-degree relatives) and PD exposure. With sufficient data, PD can be measured in populations and strongly predicts DA. In a nationwide sample, risk factors at the level of the individual (genetic vulnerability), family (parental loss), and community (PD) contribute substantially to risk of DA. Individuals at elevated DA risk because of parental divorce or high genetic liability are more sensitive to the pathogenic effects of PD. Although the effect of our PD measure on DA liability cannot be explained by standard measures of community or family risk, we cannot, with available data, discriminate definitively between the effect of true peer effects and other unmeasured risk factors.

Clusters of Behaviors and Beliefs Predicting Adolescent Depression: Implications for Prevention

PubMed Central

Paunesku, David; Ellis, Justin; Fogel, Joshua; Kuwabara, Sachiko A; Gollan, Jackie; Gladstone, Tracy; Reinecke, Mark; Van Voorhees, Benjamin W.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE Risk factors for various disorders are known to cluster. However, the factor structure for behaviors and beliefs predicting depressive disorder in adolescents is not known. Knowledge of this structure can facilitate prevention planning. METHODS We used the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (AddHealth) data set to conduct an exploratory factor analysis to identify clusters of behaviors/experiences predicting the onset of major depressive disorder (MDD) at 1-year follow-up (N=4,791). RESULTS Four factors were identified: family/interpersonal relations, self-emancipation, avoidant problem solving/low self-worth, and religious activity. Strong family/interpersonal relations were the most significantly protective against depression at one year follow-up. Avoidant problem solving/low self-worth was not predictive of MDD on its own, but significantly amplified the risks associated with delinquency. CONCLUSION Depression prevention interventions should consider giving family relationships a more central role in their efforts. Programs teaching problem solving skills may be most appropriate for reducing MDD risk in delinquent youth. PMID:20502621

Factors influencing occupancy of nest cavities in recently burned forests

USGS Publications Warehouse

Saab, V.A.; Dudley, J.; Thompson, W.L.

2004-01-01

Recently burned forests in western North America provide nesting habitat for many species of cavity-nesting birds. However, little is understood about the time frame and the variables affecting occupancy of postfire habitats by these birds. We studied factors influencing the occupancy and reuse of nest cavities from 1-7 years after fire in two burned sites of western Idaho during 1994-1999. Tree cavities were used for nesting by 12 species of cavity nesters that were classified by the original occupant (strong excavator, weak excavator, or nonexcavator) of 385 nest cavities. We used logistic regression to model cavity occupancy by strong excavators (n = 575 trials) and weak excavators (n = 206 trials). Year after fire had the greatest influence on occupancy of nest cavities for both groups, while site of the burn was secondarily important in predicting occupancy by strong excavators and less important for weak excavators. Predicted probability of cavity occupancy was highest during the early years (1-4) after fire, declined over time (5-7 years after fire), and varied by site, with a faster decline in the smaller burned site with a greater mosaic of unburned forest. Closer proximity and greater interspersion of unburned forest (15% unburned) may have allowed a quicker recolonization by nest predators into the smaller burn compared to the larger burn with few patches of unburned forest (4% unburned). In combination with time and space effects, the predicted probability of cavity occupancy was positively affected by tree and nest heights for strong and weak excavators, respectively.

Profiling healthy eaters. Determining factors that predict healthy eating practices among Dutch adults.

PubMed

Swan, Emily; Bouwman, Laura; Hiddink, Gerrit Jan; Aarts, Noelle; Koelen, Maria

2015-06-01

Research has identified multiple factors that predict unhealthy eating practices. However what remains poorly understood are factors that promote healthy eating practices. This study aimed to determine a set of factors that represent a profile of healthy eaters. This research applied Antonovsky's salutogenic framework for health development to examine a set of factors that predict healthy eating in a cross-sectional study of Dutch adults. Data were analyzed from participants (n = 703) who completed the study's survey in January 2013. Logistic regression analysis was performed to test the association of survey factors on the outcome variable high dietary score. In the multivariate logistic regression model, five factors contributed significantly (p < .05) to the predictive ability of the overall model: being female; living with a partner; a strong sense of coherence (construct from the salutogenic framework), flexible restraint of eating, and self-efficacy for healthy eating. Findings complement what is already known of the factors that relate to poor eating practices. This can provide nutrition promotion with a more comprehensive picture of the factors that both support and hinder healthy eating practices. Future research should explore these factors to better understand their origins and mechanisms in relation to healthy eating practices. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Observed parenting behaviors interact with a polymorphism of the brain-derived neurotrophic factor gene to predict the emergence of oppositional defiant and callous-unemotional behaviors at age 3 years.

PubMed

Willoughby, Michael T; Mills-Koonce, Roger; Propper, Cathi B; Waschbusch, Daniel A

2013-11-01

Using the Durham Child Health and Development Study, this study (N = 171) tested whether observed parenting behaviors in infancy (6 and 12 months) and toddlerhood/preschool (24 and 36 months) interacted with a child polymorphism of the brain-derived neurotrophic factor gene to predict oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) and callous-unemotional (CU) behaviors at age 3 years. Child genotype interacted with observed harsh and intrusive (but not sensitive) parenting to predict ODD and CU behaviors. Harsh-intrusive parenting was more strongly associated with ODD and CU for children with a methionine allele of the brain-derived neurotrophic factor gene. CU behaviors were uniquely predicted by harsh-intrusive parenting in infancy, whereas ODD behaviors were predicted by harsh-intrusive parenting in both infancy and toddlerhood/preschool. The results are discussed from the perspective of the contributions of caregiving behaviors as contributing to distinct aspects of early onset disruptive behavior.

Peak ground motion predictions with empirical site factors using Taiwan Strong Motion Network recordings

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Jen-Kuang

2013-09-01

A stochastic method called the random vibration theory (Boore, 1983) has been used to estimate the peak ground motions caused by shallow moderate-to-large earthquakes in the Taiwan area. Adopting Brune's ω-square source spectrum, attenuation models for PGA and PGV were derived from path-dependent parameters which were empirically modeled from about one thousand accelerograms recorded at reference sites mostly located in a mountain area and which have been recognized as rock sites without soil amplification. Consequently, the predicted horizontal peak ground motions at the reference sites, are generally comparable to these observed. A total number of 11,915 accelerograms recorded from 735 free-field stations of the Taiwan Strong Motion Network (TSMN) were used to estimate the site factors by taking the motions from the predictive models as references. Results from soil sites reveal site amplification factors of approximately 2.0 ~ 3.5 for PGA and about 1.3 ~ 2.6 for PGV. Finally, as a result of amplitude corrections with those empirical site factors, about 75% of analyzed earthquakes are well constrained in ground motion predictions, having average misfits ranging from 0.30 to 0.50. In addition, two simple indices, R 0.57 and R 0.38, are proposed in this study to evaluate the validity of intensity map prediction for public information reports. The average percentages of qualified stations for peak acceleration residuals less than R 0.57 and R 0.38 can reach 75% and 54%, respectively, for most earthquakes. Such a performance would be good enough to produce a faithful intensity map for a moderate scenario event in the Taiwan region.

Accurate experimental and theoretical comparisons between superconductor-insulator-superconductor mixers showing weak and strong quantum effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mcgrath, W. R.; Richards, P. L.; Face, D. W.; Prober, D. E.; Lloyd, F. L.

1988-01-01

A systematic study of the gain and noise in superconductor-insulator-superconductor mixers employing Ta based, Nb based, and Pb-alloy based tunnel junctions was made. These junctions displayed both weak and strong quantum effects at a signal frequency of 33 GHz. The effects of energy gap sharpness and subgap current were investigated and are quantitatively related to mixer performance. Detailed comparisons are made of the mixing results with the predictions of a three-port model approximation to the Tucker theory. Mixer performance was measured with a novel test apparatus which is accurate enough to allow for the first quantitative tests of theoretical noise predictions. It is found that the three-port model of the Tucker theory underestimates the mixer noise temperature by a factor of about 2 for all of the mixers. In addition, predicted values of available mixer gain are in reasonable agreement with experiment when quantum effects are weak. However, as quantum effects become strong, the predicted available gain diverges to infinity, which is in sharp contrast to the experimental results. Predictions of coupled gain do not always show such divergences.

TS expression predicts postoperative recurrence in adenocarcinoma of the lung.

PubMed

Shimokawa, Hidehiko; Uramoto, Hidetaka; Onitsuka, Takamitsu; Iwata, Teruo; Nakagawa, Makoto; Ono, Kenji; Hanagiri, Takeshi

2011-06-01

Not all patients with lung cancer require postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy after a complete resection. However, no useful markers for either selecting appropriate candidates or for predicting clinical recurrence exist. Tumor specimens were collected from 183 consecutive patients who underwent a complete resection for lung adenocarcinoma from 2003 to 2007 in our department. We analyzed the thymidylate synthase (TS) and dihydrofolate reductase (DHFR) expressions in the primary lung adenocarcinoma by immunohistochemisty. The strong expression of TS and DHFR was identified in 39 (21.3%) and 120 (65.6%) patients, respectively. The strong TS expression was identified in 11 (39.3%) of 28 patients and 28 (18.1%) of 155 patients in patients with and without recurrence, respectively (p=0.012). The strong DHFR expression was also identified in 23 (82.1%) and 97 (62.6%) of the patients with and without recurrence, respectively (p=0.045). Logistic regression models indicated the strong TS expression to be an independent factor for tumor recurrence. The strong TS and DHFR expression was associated with a poorer disease-free survival (DFS) according to the survival analysis. A multivariate analysis demonstrated the strong TS expression to be independently associated with an increased risk for poor DFS. The strong TS expression may be a useful marker for predicting postoperative recurrence in patients with lung adenocarcinoma following surgery. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

From Consideration to Commitment: Factors in Adults' Decisions to Enroll in a Higher Education Degree Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stein, David S.; Wanstreet, Constance; Trinko, Lynn A.

2011-01-01

This study identified factors associated with the decision to enroll in a higher education degree program. In the context of predicting enrollment in a workforce development credentialing program, this study identified six variables that are strongly related to the likelihood to enroll: time out of school; possibilities for intellectual, personal,…

Systematic review of prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica.

PubMed

Verwoerd, A J H; Luijsterburg, P A J; Lin, C W C; Jacobs, W C H; Koes, B W; Verhagen, A P

2013-09-01

Identification of prognostic factors for surgery in patients with sciatica is important to be able to predict surgery in an early stage. Identification of prognostic factors predicting persistent pain, disability and recovery are important for better understanding of the clinical course, to inform patient and physician and support decision making. Consequently, we aimed to systematically review prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica. A search of Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Cinahl, up to March 2012 was performed for prospective cohort studies on prognostic factors for non-surgically treated sciatica. Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion and assessed the risk of bias. Outcomes were pain, disability, recovery and surgery. A best evidence synthesis was carried out in order to assess and summarize the data. The initial search yielded 4392 articles of which 23 articles reporting on 14 original cohorts met the inclusion criteria. High clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity among studies was found. Reported evidence regarding prognostic factors predicting the outcome in sciatica is limited. The majority of factors that have been evaluated, e.g., age, body mass index, smoking and sensory disturbance, showed no association with outcome. The only positive association with strong evidence was found for leg pain intensity at baseline as prognostic factor for subsequent surgery. © 2013 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

Factors Predictive Of Alcohol Consumption Among Elderly People In A Rural Community: A Case Study In Phayao Province Thailand.

PubMed

Hongthong, Donnapa; Somrongthong, Ratana; Wongchaiya, Pimpimon; Kumar, Ramesh

2016-01-01

Alcohol consumption is recognized as a public health issue. Study objectives were to identify factors predictive of alcohol consumption among elderly people in Phayao province Thailand, where there was high prevalence of alcohol consumption. This was a cross-sectional study. Four hundred elderly people participated in a survey. Data was collected by face-to-face interviews. Chi-square and multivariate logistic regression were used to determine the factors predictive of alcohol consumption among the study subjects. One thirds of elderly (31.7%) had consumed alcohol in their lifetime, and (15.7%) of them were current drinkers. Following univariate analysis, seven factors included gender, working, sickness, smoking, quality of life (QOL), daily activities and economic recession - were identified as being significantly associated with drinking (p<0.05). Multivariate analysis revealed four factors to be predictive of alcohol among elderly people: gender (OR=6.02, 95% CI=3.58-10.13), smoking (OR=4.34, 95% CI=2.57-7.34), economic recession (OR=2.79, 95%, CI=1.66-4.71), and QOL (OR=1.86, 95%, CI=1.09-3.16). Gender (male) and smoking were strongly predictive factors of elderly alcohol consumption. Hence, an effort to reduce alcohol consumption should be placed on male elderly and those who smoke.

Anxiety and depression as bidirectional risk factors for one another: A meta-analysis of longitudinal studies.

PubMed

Jacobson, Nicholas C; Newman, Michelle G

2017-11-01

Not only do anxiety and depression diagnoses tend to co-occur, but their symptoms are highly correlated. Although a plethora of research has examined longitudinal associations between anxiety and depression, these data have not yet been effectively synthesized. To address this need, the current study undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis of 66 studies involving 88,336 persons examining the prospective relationship between anxiety and depression at both symptom and disorder levels. Using mixed-effect models, results suggested that all types of anxiety symptoms predicted later depressive symptoms (r = .34), and all types of depressive symptoms predicted later anxiety symptoms (r = .31). Although anxiety symptoms more strongly predicted depressive symptoms than vice versa, the difference in effect size for this analysis was very small and likely not clinically meaningful. Additionally, all types of diagnosed anxiety disorders predicted all types of later depressive disorders (OR = 2.77), and all depressive disorders predicted later anxiety disorders (OR = 2.73). Most anxiety and depressive disorders predicted each other with similar degrees of strength, but depressive disorders more strongly predicted social anxiety disorder (OR = 6.05) and specific phobia (OR = 2.93) than vice versa. Contrary to conclusions of prior reviews, our findings suggest that depressive disorders may be prodromes for social and specific phobia, whereas other anxiety and depressive disorders are bidirectional risk factors for one another. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Stochastic or statistic? Comparing flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing climates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

2015-09-01

The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drives of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by a strong wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are strongly favored over statistical models.

Road death trend in the United States: implied effects of prevention.

PubMed

Robertson, Leon

2018-05-01

This study estimates road deaths prevented by U.S. vehicle safety regulations, state laws, and other efforts based on comparison of actual deaths to those predicted from temperature and precipitation effects on exposure, migration to warmer areas, population growth, median age of the population, and vehicle mix. Logistic regression of risk factors predictive of road deaths in 1961, prior to the adoption of federal vehicle safety regulations, state behavioral change laws, and other preventive efforts were used to predict deaths in subsequent years given the changing prevalence of the risk factors from 1962 to 2015. The included risk factors are strong predictors of road death risk. Without the preventive efforts, an additional 5.8 million road deaths would likely have occurred in the U.S. from the initiation of federal safety standards for new vehicles in 1968 through 2015.

Strong Coupling Continuum QCD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pennington, M. R.

2011-05-23

The Schwinger-Dyson, Bethe-Salpeter system of equations are the link between coloured quarks and gluons, and colourless hadrons and their properties. This talk reviews some aspects of these studies from the infrared behaviour of ghosts to the prediction of electromagnetic form-factors.

Strong Coupling Continuum QCD

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Michael Pennington

2011-05-01

The Schwinger-Dyson, Bethe-Salpeter system of equations are the link between coloured quarks and gluons, and colourless hadrons and their properties. This talk reviews some aspects of these studies from the infrared behaviour of ghosts to the prediction of electromagnetic form-factors.

Examining the job search-turnover relationship: the role of embeddedness, job satisfaction, and available alternatives.

PubMed

Swider, Brian W; Boswell, Wendy R; Zimmerman, Ryan D

2011-03-01

This study examined factors that may help explain under what conditions employee job search effort may most strongly (or weakly) predict subsequent turnover. As predicted, the job search-turnover relationship was stronger when employees had lower levels of job embeddedness and job satisfaction and higher levels of available alternatives. These findings suggest that there may be a number of factors interacting to influence employees' turnover decisions, indicating greater complexity to the process than described in prominent sequential turnover models. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2011 APA, all rights reserved.

A multidomain approach to understanding risk for underage drinking: converging evidence from 5 data sets.

PubMed

Jones, Damon E; Feinberg, Mark E; Cleveland, Michael J; Cooper, Brittany Rhoades

2012-11-01

We examined the independent and combined influence of major risk and protective factors on youths' alcohol use. Five large data sets provided similar measures of alcohol use and risk or protective factors. We carried out analyses within each data set, separately for boys and girls in 8th and 10th grades. We included interaction and curvilinear predictive terms in final models if results were robust across data sets. We combined results using meta-analytic techniques. Individual, family, and peer risk factors and a community protective factor moderately predicted youths' alcohol use. Family and school protective factors did not predict alcohol use when combined with other factors. Youths' antisocial attitudes were more strongly associated with alcohol use for those also reporting higher levels of peer or community risk. For certain risk factors, the association with alcohol use varied across different risk levels. Efforts toward reducing youths' alcohol use should be based on robust estimates of the relative influence of risk and protective factors across adolescent environment domains. Public health advocates should focus on context (e.g., community factors) as a strategy for curbing underage alcohol use.

Developing a Comprehensive Model of Risk and Protective Factors That Can Predict Spelling at Age Seven: Findings from a Community Sample of Victorian Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serry, Tanya Anne; Castles, Anne; Mensah, Fiona K.; Bavin, Edith L.; Eadie, Patricia; Pezic, Angela; Prior, Margot; Bretherton, Lesley; Reilly, Sheena

2015-01-01

The paper reports on a study designed to develop a risk model that can best predict single-word spelling in seven-year-old children when they were aged 4 and 5. Test measures, personal characteristics and environmental influences were all considered as variables from a community sample of 971 children. Strong concurrent correlations were found…

Understanding Chronically Reported Families

PubMed Central

Jonson-Reid, Melissa; Emery, Clifton R.; Drake, Brett; Stahlschmidt, Mary Jo

2013-01-01

Although a strong literature on child maltreatment re-reporting exists, much of that literature stops at the first re-report. The literature on chronic re-reporting, meaning reports beyond the second report, is scant. The authors follow Loman’s lead in focusing on reports beyond the first two to determine what factors predict these “downstream” report stages. Cross-sector, longitudinal administrative data are used. The authors analyze predictors at each of the first four recurrences (first to second report, second to third report, third to fourth report, and fourth to fifth report). Findings demonstrate that some factors (e.g., tract poverty) which predict initial recurrence lose their predictive value at later stages, whereas others (e.g., aid to families with dependent children history) remain predictive across stages. In-home child welfare services and mental health treatment emerged as consistent predictors of reduced recurrence. PMID:20941889

Development of an Individualism-Collectivism Scale revisited: a Korean sample.

PubMed

Kim, Kitae; Cho, Bongsoon

2011-04-01

A 13-item Individualism-Collectivism scale comprising source of identity, goal priority, mode of social relation, and norm acceptance is presented. A validation of this scale was conducted using a survey of 773 Korean employees. An exploratory factor analysis and a second-order confirmatory factor analysis supported the measure as having theoretical face validity and acceptable internal consistency reliability. Among the four facets, goal priority most strongly predicted the general Individualism-Collectivism latent factor.

Separating Common from Unique Variance Within Emotional Distress: An Examination of Reliability and Relations to Worry.

PubMed

Marshall, Andrew J; Evanovich, Emma K; David, Sarah Jo; Mumma, Gregory H

2018-01-17

High comorbidity rates among emotional disorders have led researchers to examine transdiagnostic factors that may contribute to shared psychopathology. Bifactor models provide a unique method for examining transdiagnostic variables by modelling the common and unique factors within measures. Previous findings suggest that the bifactor model of the Depression Anxiety and Stress Scale (DASS) may provide a method for examining transdiagnostic factors within emotional disorders. This study aimed to replicate the bifactor model of the DASS, a multidimensional measure of psychological distress, within a US adult sample and provide initial estimates of the reliability of the general and domain-specific factors. Furthermore, this study hypothesized that Worry, a theorized transdiagnostic variable, would show stronger relations to general emotional distress than domain-specific subscales. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to evaluate the bifactor model structure of the DASS in 456 US adult participants (279 females and 177 males, mean age 35.9 years) recruited online. The DASS bifactor model fitted well (CFI = 0.98; RMSEA = 0.05). The General Emotional Distress factor accounted for most of the reliable variance in item scores. Domain-specific subscales accounted for modest portions of reliable variance in items after accounting for the general scale. Finally, structural equation modelling indicated that Worry was strongly predicted by the General Emotional Distress factor. The DASS bifactor model is generalizable to a US community sample and General Emotional Distress, but not domain-specific factors, strongly predict the transdiagnostic variable Worry.

Workplace empowerment, incivility, and burnout: impact on staff nurse recruitment and retention outcomes.

PubMed

Spence Laschinger, Heather K; Leiter, Michael; Day, Arla; Gilin, Debra

2009-04-01

The aim of this study was to examine the influence of empowering work conditions and workplace incivility on nurses' experiences of burnout and important nurse retention factors identified in the literature. A major cause of turnover among nurses is related to unsatisfying workplaces. Recently, there have been numerous anecdotal reports of uncivil behaviour in health care settings. We examined the impact of workplace empowerment, supervisor and coworker incivility, and burnout on three employee retention outcomes: job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and turnover intentions in a sample of 612 Canadian staff nurses. Hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses revealed that empowerment, workplace incivility, and burnout explained significant variance in all three retention factors: job satisfaction (R(2) = 0.46), organizational commitment (R(2) = 0.29) and turnover intentions (R(2) = 0.28). Empowerment, supervisor incivility, and cynicism most strongly predicted job dissatisfaction and low commitment (P < 0.001), whereas emotional exhaustion, cynicism, and supervisor incivility most strongly predicted turnover intentions. In our study, nurses' perceptions of empowerment, supervisor incivility, and cynicism were strongly related to job satisfaction, organizational commitment, and turnover intentions. Managerial strategies that empower nurses for professional practice may be helpful in preventing workplace incivility, and ultimately, burnout.

Motivating Kids in Physical Activity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weiss, Maureen R.

2000-01-01

This article adopts a motivational stance in identifying factors that strongly predict physical activity in children. One model for understanding physical activity motivation in children portrays the sources and consequences of self-esteem for physical activity behavior (perceived competency/adequacy, social support, enjoyment, and physical…

The importance of social exchange to nurses and nurse assistants: impact on retention factors.

PubMed

Trybou, Jeroen; De Pourcq, Kaat; Paeshuyse, Michel; Gemmel, Paul

2014-07-01

The purpose of this study was to test the norm of reciprocity by examining relationships between perceived organisational support (POS), the quality of leader-member exchange (LMX) and psychological contract breach (PCB) and important nurse retention factors identified in the literature. A major cause of turnover among nurses is related to unsatisfying workplaces. Previous research, mainly outside the nursing setting, found that social exchange affects employees' work-related attitudes. A cross-sectional survey was conducted on 217 nurses and nursing assistants to test and refine a model linking POS, LMX, PCB with job satisfaction, trust and turnover intentions. Hierarchical multiple linear regression revealed that POS, PCB and LMX explained significant variance in all three retention factors: job satisfaction (adjusted R² = 0.502), trust (adjusted R² = 0.462) and turnover intentions (adjusted R² = 0.196). POS and PCB predicted most strongly job satisfaction (P < 0.001) and trust (P < 0.001 and P < 0.01, respectively). LMX predicted most strongly intention to leave (P < 0.01). In our study, POS, the quality of LMX and PCB were strongly related to job satisfaction, trust and turnover intentions. Nursing managers and leaders should recognize the importance of social exchange within their organisation to build trust, satisfy and retain scarce nurses and nursing assistants. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predictive factors of early moderate/severe ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome in non-polycystic ovarian syndrome patients: a statistical model.

PubMed

Ashrafi, Mahnaz; Bahmanabadi, Akram; Akhond, Mohammad Reza; Arabipoor, Arezoo

2015-11-01

To evaluate demographic, medical history and clinical cycle characteristics of infertile non-polycystic ovary syndrome (NPCOS) women with the purpose of investigating their associations with the prevalence of moderate-to-severe OHSS. In this retrospective study, among 7073 in vitro fertilization and/or intracytoplasmic sperm injection (IVF/ICSI) cycles, 86 cases of NPCO patients who developed moderate-to-severe OHSS while being treated with IVF/ICSI cycles were analyzed during the period of January 2008 to December 2010 at Royan Institute. To review the OHSS risk factors, 172 NPCOS patients without developing OHSS, treated at the same period of time, were selected randomly by computer as control group. We used multiple logistic regression in a backward manner to build a prediction model. The regression analysis revealed that the variables, including age [odds ratio (OR) 0.9, confidence interval (CI) 0.81-0.99], antral follicles count (OR 4.3, CI 2.7-6.9), infertility cause (tubal factor, OR 11.5, CI 1.1-51.3), hypothyroidism (OR 3.8, CI 1.5-9.4) and positive history of ovarian surgery (OR 0.2, CI 0.05-0.9) were the most important predictors of OHSS. The regression model had an area under curve of 0.94, presenting an allowable discriminative performance that was equal with two strong predictive variables, including the number of follicles and serum estradiol level on human chorionic gonadotropin day. The predictive regression model based on primary characteristics of NPCOS patients had equal specificity in comparison with two mentioned strong predictive variables. Therefore, it may be beneficial to apply this model before the beginning of ovarian stimulation protocol.

How important are autonomy and work setting to nurse practitioners' job satisfaction?

PubMed

Athey, Erin K; Leslie, Mayri Sagady; Briggs, Linda A; Park, Jeongyoung; Falk, Nancy L; Pericak, Arlene; El-Banna, Majeda M; Greene, Jessica

2016-06-01

Nurse practitioners (NPs) have reported aspects of their jobs that they are more and less satisfied with. However, few studies have examined the factors that predict overall job satisfaction. This study uses a large national sample to examine the extent to which autonomy and work setting predict job satisfaction. The 2012 National Sample Survey of Nurse Practitioners (n = 8311) was used to examine bivariate and multivariate relationships between work setting and three autonomy variables (independent billing practices, having one's NP skills fully utilized, and relationship with physician), and job satisfaction. NPs working in primary care reported the highest levels of autonomy across all three autonomy measures, while those working in hospital surgical settings reported the lowest levels. Autonomy, specifically feeling one's NP skills were fully utilized, was the factor most predictive of satisfaction. In multivariate analyses, those who strongly agreed their skills were being fully utilized had satisfaction scores almost one point higher than those who strongly disagreed. Work setting was only marginally related to job satisfaction. In order to attract and retain NPs in the future, healthcare organizations should ensure that NPs' skills are being fully utilized. ©2015 American Association of Nurse Practitioners.

Parents Influencing Secondary Students' University Aspirations: A Multilevel Approach Using School-SES

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Watson, Stuart; Vernon, Lynette; Seddon, Sarah; Andrews, Yolanda; Wang, Angela

2016-01-01

Students' university aspirational capacity and expectancies are key factors in predicting future university participation. Aspirations and expectations to attend university are strongly influenced by parent educational socialisation and school culture. This study investigates associations between students' university discussions with parents and…

Academic Risk Among Inner-City Adolescents: The Role of Personal Attributes

PubMed Central

Ripple, Carol H.; Luthar, Suniya S.

2012-01-01

In this 3-year prospective study, we explored antecedents of school-based adjustment among 134 inner-city high-school students. We examined the role of freshman-year risk and protective factors in relation to dropout status and senior-year adjustment indices among those who remained in school, including academic performance, psychological symptoms, and drug use. Although each single attribute included in this study has been linked to poor academic performance in previous investigations, the primary goal in this study was to determine which attributes were strongly related to academic problems when considered together. In addition, we sought to establish whether risk factors associated with dropout were the same as those that predicted academic problems among students who remained in school. Findings indicated that freshman-year attendance and demographic indices were most strongly predictive of dropout. Among adolescents who remained in school, freshman academic success was robustly linked to senior-year competence. Implications for identifying inner-city high-school students at high risk for academic problems are discussed. PMID:24839305

Construct measurement quality improves predictive accuracy in violence risk assessment: an illustration using the personality assessment inventory.

PubMed

Hendry, Melissa C; Douglas, Kevin S; Winter, Elizabeth A; Edens, John F

2013-01-01

Much of the risk assessment literature has focused on the predictive validity of risk assessment tools. However, these tools often comprise a list of risk factors that are themselves complex constructs, and focusing on the quality of measurement of individual risk factors may improve the predictive validity of the tools. The present study illustrates this concern using the Antisocial Features and Aggression scales of the Personality Assessment Inventory (Morey, 1991). In a sample of 1,545 prison inmates and offenders undergoing treatment for substance abuse (85% male), we evaluated (a) the factorial validity of the ANT and AGG scales, (b) the utility of original ANT and AGG scales and newly derived ANT and AGG scales for predicting antisocial outcomes (recidivism and institutional infractions), and (c) whether items with a stronger relationship to the underlying constructs (higher factor loadings) were in turn more strongly related to antisocial outcomes. Confirmatory factor analyses (CFAs) indicated that ANT and AGG items were not structured optimally in these data in terms of correspondence to the subscale structure identified in the PAI manual. Exploratory factor analyses were conducted on a random split-half of the sample to derive optimized alternative factor structures, and cross-validated in the second split-half using CFA. Four-factor models emerged for both the ANT and AGG scales, and, as predicted, the size of item factor loadings was associated with the strength with which items were associated with institutional infractions and community recidivism. This suggests that the quality by which a construct is measured is associated with its predictive strength. Implications for risk assessment are discussed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Validation of Predictors of Fall Events in Hospitalized Patients With Cancer.

PubMed

Weed-Pfaff, Samantha H; Nutter, Benjamin; Bena, James F; Forney, Jennifer; Field, Rosemary; Szoka, Lynn; Karius, Diana; Akins, Patti; Colvin, Christina M; Albert, Nancy M

2016-10-01

A seven-item cancer-specific fall risk tool (Cleveland Clinic Capone-Albert [CC-CA] Fall Risk Score) was shown to have a strong concordance index for predicting falls; however, validation of the model is needed. The aims of this study were to validate that the CC-CA Fall Risk Score, made up of six factors, predicts falls in patients with cancer and to determine if the CC-CA Fall Risk Score performs better than the Morse Fall Tool. Using a prospective, comparative methodology, data were collected from electronic health records of patients hospitalized for cancer care in four hospitals. Risk factors from each tool were recorded, when applicable. Multivariable models were created to predict the probability of a fall. A concordance index for each fall tool was calculated. The CC-CA Fall Risk Score provided higher discrimination than the Morse Fall Tool in predicting fall events in patients hospitalized for cancer management.

Psychological Language on Twitter Predicts County-Level Heart Disease Mortality

PubMed Central

Eichstaedt, Johannes C.; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L.; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R.; Merchant, Raina M.; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A.; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E.; Ungar, Lyle H.; Seligman, Martin E. P.

2015-01-01

Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions—especially anger—emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors. Most correlations remained significant after controlling for income and education. A cross-sectional regression model based only on Twitter language predicted AHD mortality significantly better than did a model that combined 10 common demographic, socioeconomic, and health risk factors, including smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Capturing community psychological characteristics through social media is feasible, and these characteristics are strong markers of cardiovascular mortality at the community level. PMID:25605707

Psychological language on Twitter predicts county-level heart disease mortality.

PubMed

Eichstaedt, Johannes C; Schwartz, Hansen Andrew; Kern, Margaret L; Park, Gregory; Labarthe, Darwin R; Merchant, Raina M; Jha, Sneha; Agrawal, Megha; Dziurzynski, Lukasz A; Sap, Maarten; Weeg, Christopher; Larson, Emily E; Ungar, Lyle H; Seligman, Martin E P

2015-02-01

Hostility and chronic stress are known risk factors for heart disease, but they are costly to assess on a large scale. We used language expressed on Twitter to characterize community-level psychological correlates of age-adjusted mortality from atherosclerotic heart disease (AHD). Language patterns reflecting negative social relationships, disengagement, and negative emotions-especially anger-emerged as risk factors; positive emotions and psychological engagement emerged as protective factors. Most correlations remained significant after controlling for income and education. A cross-sectional regression model based only on Twitter language predicted AHD mortality significantly better than did a model that combined 10 common demographic, socioeconomic, and health risk factors, including smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and obesity. Capturing community psychological characteristics through social media is feasible, and these characteristics are strong markers of cardiovascular mortality at the community level. © The Author(s) 2014.

Child and Adolescent Clinical Features Preceding Adult Suicide Attempts.

PubMed

Serra, Giulia; Koukopoulos, Athanasios; De Chiara, Lavinia; Napoletano, Flavia; Koukopoulos, Alexia; Sani, Gabriele; Faedda, Gianni L; Girardi, Paolo; Reginaldi, Daniela; Baldessarini, Ross J

2017-07-03

The objective of this study was to identify the predictive value of juvenile factors for adult suicidal behavior. We reviewed clinical records to compare factors identified in childhood and adolescence between adult suicidal versus nonsuicidal major affective disorder subjects. Suicide attempts occurred in 23.1% of subjects. Age-at-first-symptom was 14.2 vs. 20.2 years among suicidal versus nonsuicidal subjects (p < 0.0001). More prevalent in suicidal versus non-suicidal subjects by multivariate analysis were: depressive symptoms, hyper-emotionality, younger-at-first-affective-episode, family suicide history, childhood mood-swings, and adolescence low self-esteem. Presence of one factor yielded a Bayesian sensitivity of 64%, specificity of 50%, and negative predictive power of 86%. Several juvenile factors were associated with adult suicidal behavior; their absence was strongly associated with a lack of adult suicidal behavior.

Adolescent Alcohol Use: Protective and Predictive Parent, Peer, and Self-Related Factors

PubMed Central

Donaldson, Candice D.; Crano, William D.

2018-01-01

Adolescent alcohol use has been linked with a multitude of problems and a trajectory predictive of problematic use in adulthood. Thus, targeting factors that enhance early prevention efforts is vital. The current study highlights variables that mitigate or predict alcohol use and heavy episodic drinking. Using Monitoring the Future (MTF) data, multiple path analytic models revealed links between parental involvement and alcohol abstinence and initiation. Parental involvement predicted enhanced self-esteem and less self-derogation and was negatively associated with peer alcohol norms for each MTF grade sampled, with stronger associations for 8th and 10th graders than 12th graders. For younger groups, self-esteem predicted increased perceptions of alcohol risk and reduced drinking. Self-derogation was associated with peers’ pro-alcohol norms, which was linked to lower risk perceptions, lower personal disapproval of use, and increased drinking. Peer influence had a stronger association with consumption for 8th and 10th graders, whereas 12th graders’ drinking was related to personal factors of alcohol risk perception and disapproval. In all grades, general alcohol use had a strong connection to heavy episodic drinking within the past 2 weeks. Across-grade variations in association of parent, peer, and personal factors suggest the desirability of tailored interventions focused on specific factors for each grade level, with the overall goal of attenuating adolescent alcohol use. PMID:27562038

Individual Differences In The Executive Control Of Attention, Memory, And Thought, And Their Associations With Schizotypy

PubMed Central

Kane, Michael J.; Meier, Matt E.; Smeekens, Bridget A.; Gross, Georgina M.; Chun, Charlotte A.; Silvia, Paul J.; Kwapil, Thomas R.

2016-01-01

A large correlational study took a latent-variable approach to the generality of executive control by testing the individual-differences structure of executive-attention capabilities and assessing their prediction of schizotypy, a multidimensional construct (with negative, positive, disorganized, and paranoid factors) conveying risk for schizophrenia. Although schizophrenia is convincingly linked to executive deficits, the schizotypy literature is equivocal. Subjects completed tasks of working memory capacity (WMC), attention restraint (inhibiting prepotent responses), and attention constraint (focusing visual attention amid distractors), the latter two in an effort to fractionate the “inhibition” construct. We also assessed mind-wandering propensity (via in-task thought probes) and coefficient of variation in response times (RT CoV) from several tasks as more novel indices of executive attention. WMC, attention restraint, attention constraint, mind wandering, and RT CoV were correlated but separable constructs, indicating some distinctions among “attention control” abilities; WMC correlated more strongly with attentional restraint than constraint, and mind wandering correlated more strongly with attentional restraint, attentional constraint, and RT CoV than with WMC. Across structural models, no executive construct predicted negative schizotypy and only mind wandering and RT CoV consistently (but modestly) predicted positive, disorganized, and paranoid schizotypy; stalwart executive constructs in the schizophrenia literature — WMC and attention restraint — showed little to no predictive power, beyond restraint’s prediction of paranoia. Either executive deficits are consequences rather than risk factors for schizophrenia, or executive failures barely precede or precipitate diagnosable schizophrenia symptoms. PMID:27454042

Analysis of significant factors for dengue fever incidence prediction.

PubMed

Siriyasatien, Padet; Phumee, Atchara; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Jampachaisri, Katechan; Kesorn, Kraisak

2016-04-16

Many popular dengue forecasting techniques have been used by several researchers to extrapolate dengue incidence rates, including the K-H model, support vector machines (SVM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The time series analysis methodology, particularly ARIMA and SARIMA, has been increasingly applied to the field of epidemiological research for dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and other infectious diseases. The main drawback of these methods is that they do not consider other variables that are associated with the dependent variable. Additionally, new factors correlated to the disease are needed to enhance the prediction accuracy of the model when it is applied to areas of similar climates, where weather factors such as temperature, total rainfall, and humidity are not substantially different. Such drawbacks may consequently lower the predictive power for the outbreak. The predictive power of the forecasting model-assessed by Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)-is improved by including the new parameters for dengue outbreak prediction. This study's selected model outperforms all three other competing models with the lowest AIC, the lowest BIC, and a small MAPE value. The exclusive use of climate factors from similar locations decreases a model's prediction power. The multivariate Poisson regression, however, effectively forecasts even when climate variables are slightly different. Female mosquitoes and seasons were strongly correlated with dengue cases. Therefore, the dengue incidence trends provided by this model will assist the optimization of dengue prevention. The present work demonstrates the important roles of female mosquito infection rates from the previous season and climate factors (represented as seasons) in dengue outbreaks. Incorporating these two factors in the model significantly improves the predictive power of dengue hemorrhagic fever forecasting models, as confirmed by AIC, BIC, and MAPE.

What predicts persistent early conduct problems? Evidence from the Growing Up in Scotland cohort.

PubMed

Wilson, Philip; Bradshaw, Paul; Tipping, Sarah; Henderson, Marion; Der, Geoff; Minnis, Helen

2013-01-01

There is a strong case for early identification of factors predicting life-course-persistent conduct disorder. The authors aimed to identify factors associated with repeated parental reports of preschool conduct problems. Nested case-control study of Scottish children who had behavioural data reported by parents at 3, 4 and 5 years. 79 children had abnormal conduct scores at all three time points ('persistent conduct problems') and 434 at one or two points ('inconsistent conduct problems'). 1557 children never had abnormal scores. Compared with children with no conduct problems, children with reported problems were significantly more likely to have mothers who smoked during pregnancy. They were less likely to be living with both parents and more likely to be in poor general health, to have difficulty being understood, to have a parent who agrees that smacking is sometimes necessary and to be taken to visit other people with children rarely. The results for children with persistent and inconsistent conduct problems were similar, but associations with poverty and maternal smoking were significantly less strong in the inconsistent group. These factors may be valuable in early identification of risk of major social difficulties.

What predicts persistent early conduct problems? Evidence from the Growing Up in Scotland cohort

PubMed Central

Bradshaw, Paul; Tipping, Sarah; Henderson, Marion; Der, Geoff; Minnis, Helen

2013-01-01

Background There is a strong case for early identification of factors predicting life-course-persistent conduct disorder. The authors aimed to identify factors associated with repeated parental reports of preschool conduct problems. Method Nested case–control study of Scottish children who had behavioural data reported by parents at 3, 4 and 5 years. Results 79 children had abnormal conduct scores at all three time points (‘persistent conduct problems’) and 434 at one or two points (‘inconsistent conduct problems’). 1557 children never had abnormal scores. Compared with children with no conduct problems, children with reported problems were significantly more likely to have mothers who smoked during pregnancy. They were less likely to be living with both parents and more likely to be in poor general health, to have difficulty being understood, to have a parent who agrees that smacking is sometimes necessary and to be taken to visit other people with children rarely. The results for children with persistent and inconsistent conduct problems were similar, but associations with poverty and maternal smoking were significantly less strong in the inconsistent group. Conclusion These factors may be valuable in early identification of risk of major social difficulties. PMID:22844082

Manganese availability is negatively associated with carbon storage in northern coniferous forest humus layers.

PubMed

Stendahl, Johan; Berg, Björn; Lindahl, Björn D

2017-11-14

Carbon sequestration below ground depends on organic matter input and decomposition, but regulatory bottlenecks remain unclear. The relative importance of plant production, climate and edaphic factors has to be elucidated to better predict carbon storage in forests. In Swedish forest soil inventory data from across the entire boreal latitudinal range (n = 2378), the concentration of exchangeable manganese was singled out as the strongest predictor (R 2  = 0.26) of carbon storage in the extensive organic horizon (mor layer), which accounts for one third of the total below ground carbon. In comparison, established ecosystem models applied on the same data have failed to predict carbon stocks (R 2  < 0.05), and in our study manganese availability overshadowed both litter production and climatic factors. We also identified exchangeable potassium as an additional strong predictor, however strongly correlated with manganese. The negative correlation between manganese and carbon highlights the importance of Mn-peroxidases in oxidative decomposition of recalcitrant organic matter. The results support the idea that the fungus-driven decomposition could be a critical factor regulating humus carbon accumulation in boreal forests, as Mn-peroxidases are specifically produced by basidiomycetes.

The Utility of the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator and the Strong Interest Inventory in Predicting Service Community Selection at the United States Naval Academy

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-06-01

These include intelligence , cryptology, oceanography, medicine, civil engineering, supply, and aviation maintenance. Despite the Combat Exclusion Law...Butcher, 1968) shows that personality predicts achievement even when intelligence is statistically controlled. The 16PF5 takes the 16 factors of...assesses the likelihood of job stability and helps to clarify situations the individual may perceive as career obstacles ( Gottfredson , 2002). 25 The

Earthquake Shaking - Finding the "Hot Spots"

USGS Publications Warehouse

Field, Edward; Jones, Lucile; Jordan, Tom; Benthien, Mark; Wald, Lisa

2001-01-01

A new Southern California Earthquake Center study has quantified how local geologic conditions affect the shaking experienced in an earthquake. The important geologic factors at a site are softness of the rock or soil near the surface and thickness of the sediments above hard bedrock. Even when these 'site effects' are taken into account, however, each earthquake exhibits unique 'hotspots' of anomalously strong shaking. Better predictions of strong ground shaking will therefore require additional geologic data and more comprehensive computer simulations of individual earthquakes.

Does age modify the association between psychosocial factors at work and deterioration of self-rated health?

PubMed

Burr, Hermann; Hasselhorn, Hans Martin; Kersten, Norbert; Pohrt, Anne; Rugulies, Reiner

2017-09-01

Objectives Few epidemiological studies have examined whether associations of psychosocial working conditions with risk of poor health differ by age. Based on results from mostly cross-sectional studies, we test whether (i) psychosocial relational factors (social support) are more strongly associated with declining health of older than younger employees and (ii) psychosocial job factors (workpace, influence, possibilities for development) are more strongly associated with declining health of younger than older employees. Methods We extracted two cohorts from the Danish Work Environment Cohort Study (DWECS): the 2000-2005 and 2005-2010 cohorts. The participating 5281 employees with good self-rated health (SRH) at baseline were observed in 6585 5-year time windows. Using log-binomial regression analyses, we analysed whether psychosocial factors at work predicted 5-year deterioration of SRH. Effect modification by age was estimated by calculating relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). Results High workpace among men, low influence at work as well as low social support from colleagues among women, and low possibilities for development and low social support from supervisors among both genders predicted 5-year decline in SRH. Of the 20 interaction analyses, only 1 was statistically significant and in the opposite direction of what was hypothesized (higher risk for declining SRH among middle-aged men with low possibilities for development compared to the young men with high possibilities for development). Conclusions Psychosocial working conditions predicted decline in SRH in this 5-year follow-up study. The model did not support our hypotheses about modifying effects by age.

Feasibility and validity of the structured attention module among economically disadvantaged preschool-age children.

PubMed

Bush, Hillary H; Eisenhower, Abbey; Briggs-Gowan, Margaret; Carter, Alice S

2015-01-01

Rooted in the theory of attention put forth by Mirsky, Anthony, Duncan, Ahearn, and Kellam (1991), the Structured Attention Module (SAM) is a developmentally sensitive, computer-based performance task designed specifically to assess sustained selective attention among 3- to 6-year-old children. The current study addressed the feasibility and validity of the SAM among 64 economically disadvantaged preschool-age children (mean age = 58 months; 55% female); a population known to be at risk for attention problems and adverse math performance outcomes. Feasibility was demonstrated by high completion rates and strong associations between SAM performance and age. Principal Factor Analysis with rotation produced robust support for a three-factor model (Accuracy, Speed, and Endurance) of SAM performance, which largely corresponded with existing theorized models of selective and sustained attention. Construct validity was evidenced by positive correlations between SAM Composite scores and all three SAM factors and IQ, and between SAM Accuracy and sequential memory. Value-added predictive validity was not confirmed through main effects of SAM on math performance above and beyond age and IQ; however, significant interactions by child sex were observed: Accuracy and Endurance both interacted with child sex to predict math performance. In both cases, the SAM factors predicted math performance more strongly for girls than for boys. There were no overall sex differences in SAM performance. In sum, the current findings suggest that interindividual variation in sustained selective attention, and potentially other aspects of attention and executive function, among young, high-risk children can be captured validly with developmentally sensitive measures.

Development of a forensic skin colour predictive test.

PubMed

Maroñas, Olalla; Phillips, Chris; Söchtig, Jens; Gomez-Tato, Antonio; Cruz, Raquel; Alvarez-Dios, José; de Cal, María Casares; Ruiz, Yarimar; Fondevila, Manuel; Carracedo, Ángel; Lareu, María V

2014-11-01

There is growing interest in skin colour prediction in the forensic field. However, a lack of consensus approaches for recording skin colour phenotype plus the complicating factors of epistatic effects, environmental influences such as exposure to the sun and unidentified genetic variants, present difficulties for the development of a forensic skin colour predictive test centred on the most strongly associated SNPs. Previous studies have analysed skin colour variation in single unadmixed population groups, including South Asians (Stokowski et al., 2007, Am. J. Hum. Genet, 81: 1119-32) and Europeans (Jacobs et al., 2013, Hum Genet. 132: 147-58). Nevertheless, a major challenge lies in the analysis of skin colour in admixed individuals, where co-ancestry proportions do not necessarily dictate any one person's skin colour. Our study sought to analyse genetic differences between African, European and admixed African-European subjects where direct spectrometric measurements and photographs of skin colour were made in parallel. We identified strong associations to skin colour variation in the subjects studied from a pigmentation SNP discovery panel of 59 markers and developed a forensic online classifier based on naïve Bayes analysis of the SNP profiles made. A skin colour predictive test is described using the ten most strongly associated SNPs in 8 genes linked to skin pigmentation variation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reliability and validity of the Fear of Intimacy Scale in China.

PubMed

Ingersoll, Travis S; Norvilitis, Jill M; Zhang, Jie; Jia, Shuhua; Tetewsky, Sheldon

2008-05-01

Participants in China (n = 343) and the United States (n = 283) completed measures to assess the reliability and validity of the Fear of Intimacy Scale (Descutner & Thelen, 1991) with a Chinese population. Internal consistency was strong in both cultures, and the factor structure was also similar between cultures, with confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) identifying three-factor models in both samples. As evidence of convergent validity, the scale was positively correlated with depression and negatively correlated with social support and self-esteem. There were gender differences between cultures, but low levels of femininity were predictive of fear of intimacy in both cultures. The influence of individualism and collectivism varied, with high levels of individualism more predictive of a fear of intimacy in China than in the United States.

A discriminant analysis prediction model of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate based on risk factors.

PubMed

Li, Huixia; Luo, Miyang; Luo, Jiayou; Zheng, Jianfei; Zeng, Rong; Du, Qiyun; Fang, Junqun; Ouyang, Na

2016-11-23

A risk prediction model of non-syndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NSCL/P) was established by a discriminant analysis to predict the individual risk of NSCL/P in pregnant women. A hospital-based case-control study was conducted with 113 cases of NSCL/P and 226 controls without NSCL/P. The cases and the controls were obtained from 52 birth defects' surveillance hospitals in Hunan Province, China. A questionnaire was administered in person to collect the variables relevant to NSCL/P by face to face interviews. Logistic regression models were used to analyze the influencing factors of NSCL/P, and a stepwise Fisher discriminant analysis was subsequently used to construct the prediction model. In the univariate analysis, 13 influencing factors were related to NSCL/P, of which the following 8 influencing factors as predictors determined the discriminant prediction model: family income, maternal occupational hazards exposure, premarital medical examination, housing renovation, milk/soymilk intake in the first trimester of pregnancy, paternal occupational hazards exposure, paternal strong tea drinking, and family history of NSCL/P. The model had statistical significance (lambda = 0.772, chi-square = 86.044, df = 8, P < 0.001). Self-verification showed that 83.8 % of the participants were correctly predicted to be NSCL/P cases or controls with a sensitivity of 74.3 % and a specificity of 88.5 %. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.846. The prediction model that was established using the risk factors of NSCL/P can be useful for predicting the risk of NSCL/P. Further research is needed to improve the model, and confirm the validity and reliability of the model.

Which matters most? Demographic, Neuropsychological, Personality, and Situational Factors in Long-Term Marijuana and Alcohol Trajectories for Justice-Involved Male Youth

PubMed Central

Feldstein Ewing, Sarah W.; Filbey, Francesca M.; Loughran, Thomas A.; Chassin, Laurie; Piquero, Alex R.

2015-01-01

Justice-involved youth have high rates of alcohol and marijuana use. However, little is known about what may drive these rates over time. Using a large-scale (N=1,056; 41.4% African-American, 33.5% Hispanic) longitudinal study with strong retention (M retention = 90% over Years 1–7), we utilized random-effects regression to determine the comparative contribution of four sets of factors in justice-involved males’ patterns of marijuana and heavy alcohol use (number of times drunk) over the seven years of follow-up: demographic, personality, situational, and neuropsychological factors. Across both marijuana and heavy alcohol use models, three factors were particularly strong contributors to lower rates of substance use: (1) Hispanic ethnicity, (2) less exposure (street) time, and (3) better impulse control. Similarly, two factors were strong contributors to increased rates of marijuana and heavy alcohol use: (1) delinquent peers and (2) family member arrest. Together, these findings indicate the relative superiority of these independent variables over other categories (i.e., neuropsychological factors) in predicting high-risk youths’ long term (seven year) rates of substance use. These findings also suggest the importance of evaluating the connection of these areas for high-risk, adjudicated youth. PMID:26030166

Student Perceptions of Online Course Quality: A Comparison by Academic Discipline

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilcox, Brian Riley

2013-01-01

The recent rapid proliferation of distance education necessitates the need for strong levels of academic accountability. An important factor found to influence and predict student success is students' perceptions of their online courses. Understanding how learners perceive their online learning environment is paramount to effective course design…

Neuroticism Predicts Acculturative Stress in Mexican American College Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mangold, Deborah L.; Veraza, Rafael; Kinkler, Lori; Kinney, Nathan A.

2007-01-01

Neuroticism is a risk factor for mood and anxiety disorders and a strong predictor of subjective stress in non-Hispanics. This study examined neuroticism as a predictor of subjective acculturative stress in 122 Mexican American college students. Neuroticism was measured using the Revised Neuroticism Extroversion Openness Personality Inventory…

Identifying Environmental Risk Factors of Cholera in a Coastal Area with Geospatial Technologies

PubMed Central

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Wang, Duochun; Kan, Biao

2014-01-01

Satellites contribute significantly to environmental quality and public health. Environmental factors are important indicators for the prediction of disease outbreaks. This study reveals the environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, a coastal province of China, using both Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic information System (GIS). The analysis validated the correlation between the indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local cholera magnitude based on a ten-year monthly data from the year 1999 to 2008. Cholera magnitude has been strongly affected by the concurrent variables of SST and SSH, while OCC has a one-month time lag effect. A cholera prediction model has been established based on the sea environmental factors. The results of hot spot analysis showed the local cholera magnitude in counties significantly associated with the estuaries and rivers. PMID:25551518

Identifying environmental risk factors of cholera in a coastal area with geospatial technologies.

PubMed

Xu, Min; Cao, Chunxiang; Wang, Duochun; Kan, Biao

2014-12-29

Satellites contribute significantly to environmental quality and public health. Environmental factors are important indicators for the prediction of disease outbreaks. This study reveals the environmental factors associated with cholera in Zhejiang, a coastal province of China, using both Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic information System (GIS). The analysis validated the correlation between the indirect satellite measurements of sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and ocean chlorophyll concentration (OCC) and the local cholera magnitude based on a ten-year monthly data from the year 1999 to 2008. Cholera magnitude has been strongly affected by the concurrent variables of SST and SSH, while OCC has a one-month time lag effect. A cholera prediction model has been established based on the sea environmental factors. The results of hot spot analysis showed the local cholera magnitude in counties significantly associated with the estuaries and rivers.

Measures for a transdimensional multiverse

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schwartz-Perlov, Delia; Vilenkin, Alexander, E-mail: dperlov@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu, E-mail: vilenkin@cosmos.phy.tufts.edu

2010-06-01

The multiverse/landscape paradigm that has emerged from eternal inflation and string theory, describes a large-scale multiverse populated by ''pocket universes'' which come in a huge variety of different types, including different dimensionalities. In order to make predictions in the multiverse, we need a probability measure. In (3+1)d landscapes, the scale factor cutoff measure has been previously shown to have a number of attractive properties. Here we consider possible generalizations of this measure to a transdimensional multiverse. We find that a straightforward extension of scale factor cutoff to the transdimensional case gives a measure that strongly disfavors large amounts of slow-rollmore » inflation and predicts low values for the density parameter Ω, in conflict with observations. A suitable generalization, which retains all the good properties of the original measure, is the ''volume factor'' cutoff, which regularizes the infinite spacetime volume using cutoff surfaces of constant volume expansion factor.« less

Self-perceived Coparenting of Nonresident Fathers: Scale Development and Validation.

PubMed

Dyer, W Justin; Fagan, Jay; Kaufman, Rebecca; Pearson, Jessica; Cabrera, Natasha

2017-11-16

This study reports on the development and validation of the Fatherhood Research and Practice Network coparenting perceptions scale for nonresident fathers. Although other measures of coparenting have been developed, this is the first measure developed specifically for low-income, nonresident fathers. Focus groups were conducted to determine various aspects of coparenting. Based on this, a scale was created and administered to 542 nonresident fathers. Participants also responded to items used to examine convergent and predictive validity (i.e., parental responsibility, contact with the mother, father self-efficacy and satisfaction, child behavior problems, and contact and engagement with the child). Factor analyses and reliability tests revealed three distinct and reliable perceived coparenting factors: undermining, alliance, and gatekeeping. Validity tests suggest substantial overlap between the undermining and alliance factors, though undermining was uniquely related to child behavior problems. The alliance and gatekeeping factors showed strong convergent validity and evidence for predictive validity. Taken together, results suggest this relatively short measure (11 items) taps into three coparenting dimensions significantly predictive of aspects of individual and family life. © 2017 Family Process Institute.

Direct and indirect effects of biological factors on extinction risk in fossil bivalves

PubMed Central

Harnik, Paul G.

2011-01-01

Biological factors, such as abundance and body size, may contribute directly to extinction risk and indirectly through their influence on other biological characteristics, such as geographic range size. Paleontological data can be used to explicitly test many of these hypothesized relationships, and general patterns revealed through analysis of the fossil record can help refine predictive models of extinction risk developed for extant species. Here, I use structural equation modeling to tease apart the contributions of three canonical predictors of extinction—abundance, body size, and geographic range size—to the duration of bivalve species in the early Cenozoic marine fossil record of the eastern United States. I find that geographic range size has a strong direct effect on extinction risk and that an apparent direct effect of abundance can be explained entirely by its covariation with geographic range. The influence of geographic range on extinction risk is manifest across three ecologically disparate bivalve clades. Body size also has strong direct effects on extinction risk but operates in opposing directions in different clades, and thus, it seems to be decoupled from extinction risk in bivalves as a whole. Although abundance does not directly predict extinction risk, I reveal weak indirect effects of both abundance and body size through their positive influence on geographic range size. Multivariate models that account for the pervasive covariation between biological factors and extinction are necessary for assessing causality in evolutionary processes and making informed predictions in applied conservation efforts. PMID:21808004

Direct and indirect effects of biological factors on extinction risk in fossil bivalves.

PubMed

Harnik, Paul G

2011-08-16

Biological factors, such as abundance and body size, may contribute directly to extinction risk and indirectly through their influence on other biological characteristics, such as geographic range size. Paleontological data can be used to explicitly test many of these hypothesized relationships, and general patterns revealed through analysis of the fossil record can help refine predictive models of extinction risk developed for extant species. Here, I use structural equation modeling to tease apart the contributions of three canonical predictors of extinction--abundance, body size, and geographic range size--to the duration of bivalve species in the early Cenozoic marine fossil record of the eastern United States. I find that geographic range size has a strong direct effect on extinction risk and that an apparent direct effect of abundance can be explained entirely by its covariation with geographic range. The influence of geographic range on extinction risk is manifest across three ecologically disparate bivalve clades. Body size also has strong direct effects on extinction risk but operates in opposing directions in different clades, and thus, it seems to be decoupled from extinction risk in bivalves as a whole. Although abundance does not directly predict extinction risk, I reveal weak indirect effects of both abundance and body size through their positive influence on geographic range size. Multivariate models that account for the pervasive covariation between biological factors and extinction are necessary for assessing causality in evolutionary processes and making informed predictions in applied conservation efforts.

Hypoechoic foci on EUS are simple and strong predictive factors for neoplastic gallbladder polyps.

PubMed

Cho, Jae Hee; Park, Jeong Youp; Kim, Yoon Jae; Kim, Hee Man; Kim, Hong Jeong; Hong, Sung Pil; Park, Seung Woo; Chung, Jae Bock; Song, Si Young; Bang, Seungmin

2009-06-01

EUS is an accurate imaging modality for delineating gallbladder (GB) structures; however, its clinical use in differentiating neoplastic GB polyps from nonneoplastic polyps is limited. Thus, we sought to characterize neoplastic GB polyps by analyzing unique EUS features. Our analysis revealed variably shaped, relatively hypoechoic portions in the core of polyps compared with general background echogenicity. Our purpose was to make a differential diagnosis between neoplastic and nonneoplastic GB polyps of less than 20 mm by use of EUS variables, including hypoechoic foci. Retrospective single-center study. University teaching hospital. Patients (n = 88) underwent preoperative EUS and cholecystectomy for GB polyps smaller than 20 mm. Hypoechoic foci were found in 30 of 33 patients (91%) with neoplastic polyps and 6 of 55 (11%) with nonneoplastic polyps. In a multivariate analysis, hypoechoic foci were the only significant predictive factor for neoplastic polyps (odds ratio [OR] 55.4, 95% CI, 8.26-371, P < .001); the sensitivity and specificity were 90% and 89%, respectively. In addition, polyps >15 mm had an increased risk of malignancy (OR 21.7, 95% CI, 2.35-201, P = .007), as did those with hypoechoic foci (OR 10.9; 95% CI, 1.01-117, P = .049). Retrospective review of selected patients from a tertiary medical center. The presence of hypoechoic foci on EUS is a strong predictive factor for neoplastic polyps. EUS may be useful in developing a treatment strategy for GB polyps.

Possession attachment predicts cell phone use while driving.

PubMed

Weller, Joshua A; Shackleford, Crystal; Dieckmann, Nathan; Slovic, Paul

2013-04-01

Distracted driving has become an important public health concern. However, little is known about the predictors of this health-risking behavior. One overlooked risk factor for distracted driving is the perceived attachment that one feels toward his or her phone. Prior research has suggested that individuals develop bonds toward objects, and qualitative research suggests that the bond between young drivers and their phones can be strong. It follows that individuals who perceive a strong attachment to their phone would be more likely to use it, even when driving. In a nationally representative sample of young drivers (17-28 years), participants (n = 1,006) completed a survey about driving behaviors and phone use. Risk perception surrounding cell phone use while driving and perceived attachment to one's phone were assessed by administering factor-analytically derived scales that were created as part of a larger project. Attachment toward one's phone predicted the proportion of trips in which a participant reported using their cell phone while driving, beyond that accounted for by risk perception and overall phone use. Further, attachment predicted self-reported distracted driving behaviors, such as the use of social media while driving. Attachment to one's phone may be an important but overlooked risk factor for the engagement of potentially health-risking driving behaviors. Understanding that phone attachment may adversely affect driving behaviors has the potential to inform prevention and intervention efforts designed to reduce distracted driving behaviors, especially in young drivers. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Finding the Perfect Match: Factors That Influence Family Medicine Residency Selection.

PubMed

Wright, Katherine M; Ryan, Elizabeth R; Gatta, John L; Anderson, Lauren; Clements, Deborah S

2016-04-01

Residency program selection is a significant experience for emerging physicians, yet there is limited information about how applicants narrow their list of potential programs. This study examines factors that influence residency program selection among medical students interested in family medicine at the time of application. Medical students with an expressed interest in family medicine were invited to participate in a 37-item, online survey. Students were asked to rate factors that may impact residency selection on a 6-point Likert scale in addition to three open-ended qualitative questions. Mean values were calculated for each survey item and were used to determine a rank order for selection criteria. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify factors that predict a strong interest in urban, suburban, and rural residency programs. Logistic regression was also used to identify factors that predict a strong interest in academic health center-based residencies, community-based residencies, and community-based residencies with an academic affiliation. A total of 705 medical students from 32 states across the country completed the survey. Location, work/life balance, and program structure (curriculum, schedule) were rated the most important factors for residency selection. Logistic regression analysis was used to refine our understanding of how each factor relates to specific types of residencies. These findings have implications for how to best advise students in selecting a residency, as well as marketing residencies to the right candidates. Refining the recruitment process will ensure a better fit between applicants and potential programs. Limited recruitment resources may be better utilized by focusing on targeted dissemination strategies.

Air-sea heat flux control on the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass intensity and implications for its prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhu, Junying; Shi, Jie; Guo, Xinyu; Gao, Huiwang; Yao, Xiaohong

2018-01-01

The Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass (YSCWM), which occurs during summer in the central Yellow Sea, plays an important role in the hydrodynamic field, nutrient cycle and biological species. Based on water temperature observations during the summer from 1978 to 1998 in the western Yellow Sea, five specific YSCWM years were identified, including two strong years (1984 and 1985), two weak years (1989 and 1995) and one normal year (1992). Using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, the YSCWM formation processes in these five years were simulated and compared with observations. In general, the YSCWM began forming in spring, matured in summer and gradually disappeared in autumn of every year. The 8 °C isotherm was used to indicate the YSCWM boundary. The modelled YSCWM areas in the two strong years were approximately two times larger than those in the two weak years. Based on the simulations in the weak year of 1995, ten numerical experiments were performed to quantify the key factors influencing the YSCWM intensity by changing the initial water condition in the previous autumn, air-sea heat flux, wind, evaporation, precipitation and sea level pressure to those in the strong year of 1984, respectively. The results showed that the air-sea heat flux was the dominant factor influencing the YSCWM intensity, which contributed about 80% of the differences of the YSCWM average water temperature at a depth of 50 m. In addition, the air-sea heat flux in the previous winter had a determining effect, contributing more than 50% of the differences between the strong and weak YSCWM years. Finally, a simple formula for predicting the YSCWM intensity was established by using the key influencing factors, i.e., the sea surface temperature before the cooling season and the air-sea heat flux during the cooling season from the previous December to the current February. With this formula, instead of a complicated numerical model, we were able to roughly predict the YSCWM intensity for the following summer by using the data available online in winter.

Habit, identity, and repetitive action: a prospective study of binge-drinking in UK students.

PubMed

Gardner, Benjamin; de Bruijn, Gert-Jan; Lally, Phillippa

2012-09-01

Repeated action can lead to the formation of habits and identification as 'the kind of person' that performs the behaviour. This has led to the suggestion that identity-relevance is a facet of habit. This study explores conceptual overlap between habit and identity, and examines where the two constructs fit into an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour (TPB) model of binge-drinking among university students. Prospective, questionnaire-based correlational design. A total of 167 UK university students completed baseline measures of past behaviour, self-identity, the Self-Report Habit Index (SRHI), and TPB constructs. One week later, 128 participants completed a follow-up behaviour measure. Factor analyses of the SRHI and four identity items revealed two correlated but distinct factors, relating to habit and identity, respectively. Hierarchical regression analyses of intention and behaviour showed that identity contributed over and above TPB constructs to the prediction of intention, whereas habit predicted behaviour directly, and interacted with intentions in predicting behaviour. Habits unexpectedly strengthened the intention-behaviour relation, such that strong intenders were more likely to binge-drink where they also had strong habits. Identity and habit are conceptually discrete and impact differently on binge-drinking. Findings have implications for habit theory and measurement. Recommendations for student alcohol consumption reduction initiatives are offered. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Symbolic racism and Whites' attitudes towards punitive and preventive crime policies.

PubMed

Green, Eva G T; Staerklé, Christian; Sears, David O

2006-08-01

This study analyzes the determinants of Whites' support for punitive and preventive crime policies. It focuses on the predictive power of beliefs about race as described by symbolic racism theory. A dataset with 849 White respondents from three waves of the Los Angeles County Social Survey was used. In order to assess the weight of racial factors in crime policy attitudes, the effects of a range of race-neutral attitude determinants were controlled for, namely individual and structural crime attributions, perceived seriousness of crime, crime victimization, conservatism and news exposure. Results show a strong effect of symbolic racism on both types of crime policies, and in particular on punitive policies. High levels of symbolic racism are associated with support for tough, punitive crime policies and with opposition to preventive policies. Sub-dimensions of symbolic racism qualified these relationships, by showing that internal symbolic racism (assessing perceived individual deficiencies of Blacks) was most strongly predictive of punitiveness, whereas external symbolic racism (denial of institutional discrimination) predicted opposition to structural remedies. On the whole, despite the effects of race-neutral factors, the impact of symbolic racism on policy attitudes was substantial. Thus, White public opinion on both punitive and preventive crime policies is at least partially driven by racial prejudice.

Predicting the cosmological constant with the scale-factor cutoff measure

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

De Simone, Andrea; Guth, Alan H.; Salem, Michael P.

2008-09-15

It is well known that anthropic selection from a landscape with a flat prior distribution of cosmological constant {lambda} gives a reasonable fit to observation. However, a realistic model of the multiverse has a physical volume that diverges with time, and the predicted distribution of {lambda} depends on how the spacetime volume is regulated. A very promising method of regulation uses a scale-factor cutoff, which avoids a number of serious problems that arise in other approaches. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff avoids the 'youngness problem' (high probability of living in a much younger universe) and the 'Q and G catastrophes'more » (high probability for the primordial density contrast Q and gravitational constant G to have extremely large or small values). We apply the scale-factor cutoff measure to the probability distribution of {lambda}, considering both positive and negative values. The results are in good agreement with observation. In particular, the scale-factor cutoff strongly suppresses the probability for values of {lambda} that are more than about 10 times the observed value. We also discuss qualitatively the prediction for the density parameter {omega}, indicating that with this measure there is a possibility of detectable negative curvature.« less

Testing the Sensory Drive Hypothesis: Geographic variation in echolocation frequencies of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat (Rhinolophidae: Rhinolophus clivosus)

PubMed Central

Catto, Sarah; Mutumi, Gregory L.; Finger, Nikita; Webala, Paul W.

2017-01-01

Geographic variation in sensory traits is usually influenced by adaptive processes because these traits are involved in crucial life-history aspects including orientation, communication, lineage recognition and mate choice. Studying this variation can therefore provide insights into lineage diversification. According to the Sensory Drive Hypothesis, lineage diversification may be driven by adaptation of sensory systems to local environments. It predicts that acoustic signals vary in association with local climatic conditions so that atmospheric attenuation is minimized and transmission of the signals maximized. To test this prediction, we investigated the influence of climatic factors (specifically relative humidity and temperature) on geographic variation in the resting frequencies of the echolocation pulses of Geoffroy’s horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus clivosus. If the evolution of phenotypic variation in this lineage tracks climate variation, human induced climate change may lead to decreases in detection volumes and a reduction in foraging efficiency. A complex non-linear interaction between relative humidity and temperature affects atmospheric attenuation of sound and principal components composed of these correlated variables were, therefore, used in a linear mixed effects model to assess their contribution to observed variation in resting frequencies. A principal component composed predominantly of mean annual temperature (factor loading of -0.8455) significantly explained a proportion of the variation in resting frequency across sites (P < 0.05). Specifically, at higher relative humidity (around 60%) prevalent across the distribution of R. clivosus, increasing temperature had a strong negative effect on resting frequency. Climatic factors thus strongly influence acoustic signal divergence in this lineage, supporting the prediction of the Sensory Drive Hypothesis. The predicted future increase in temperature due to climate change is likely to decrease the detection volume in echolocating bats and adversely impact their foraging efficiency. PMID:29186147

Testing the Sensory Drive Hypothesis: Geographic variation in echolocation frequencies of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat (Rhinolophidae: Rhinolophus clivosus).

PubMed

Jacobs, David S; Catto, Sarah; Mutumi, Gregory L; Finger, Nikita; Webala, Paul W

2017-01-01

Geographic variation in sensory traits is usually influenced by adaptive processes because these traits are involved in crucial life-history aspects including orientation, communication, lineage recognition and mate choice. Studying this variation can therefore provide insights into lineage diversification. According to the Sensory Drive Hypothesis, lineage diversification may be driven by adaptation of sensory systems to local environments. It predicts that acoustic signals vary in association with local climatic conditions so that atmospheric attenuation is minimized and transmission of the signals maximized. To test this prediction, we investigated the influence of climatic factors (specifically relative humidity and temperature) on geographic variation in the resting frequencies of the echolocation pulses of Geoffroy's horseshoe bat, Rhinolophus clivosus. If the evolution of phenotypic variation in this lineage tracks climate variation, human induced climate change may lead to decreases in detection volumes and a reduction in foraging efficiency. A complex non-linear interaction between relative humidity and temperature affects atmospheric attenuation of sound and principal components composed of these correlated variables were, therefore, used in a linear mixed effects model to assess their contribution to observed variation in resting frequencies. A principal component composed predominantly of mean annual temperature (factor loading of -0.8455) significantly explained a proportion of the variation in resting frequency across sites (P < 0.05). Specifically, at higher relative humidity (around 60%) prevalent across the distribution of R. clivosus, increasing temperature had a strong negative effect on resting frequency. Climatic factors thus strongly influence acoustic signal divergence in this lineage, supporting the prediction of the Sensory Drive Hypothesis. The predicted future increase in temperature due to climate change is likely to decrease the detection volume in echolocating bats and adversely impact their foraging efficiency.

Quantum-mechanical parameters for the risk assessment of multi-walled carbon-nanotubes: A study using adsorption of probe compounds and its application to biomolecules.

PubMed

Chayawan; Vikas

2016-11-01

This work forwards new insights into the risk-assessment of multi-walled carbon-nanotubes (MWCNTs) while analysing the role of quantum-mechanical interactions between the electrons in the adsorption of probe compounds and biomolecules by MWCNTs. For this, the quantitative models are developed using quantum-chemical descriptors and their electron-correlation contribution. The major quantum-chemical factors contributing to the adsorption are found to be mean polarizability, electron-correlation energy, and electron-correlation contribution to the absolute electronegativity and LUMO energy. The proposed models, based on only three quantum-chemical factors, are found to be even more robust and predictive than the previously known five or four factors based linear free-energy and solvation-energy relationships. The proposed models are employed to predict the adsorption of biomolecules including steroid hormones and DNA bases. The steroid hormones are predicted to be strongly adsorbed by the MWCNTs, with the order: hydrocortisone > aldosterone > progesterone > ethinyl-oestradiol > testosterone > oestradiol, whereas the DNA bases are found to be relatively less adsorbed but follow the order as: guanine > adenine > thymine > cytosine > uracil. Besides these, the developed electron-correlation based models predict several insecticides, pesticides, herbicides, fungicides, plasticizers and antimicrobial agents in cosmetics, to be strongly adsorbed by the carbon-nanotubes. The present study proposes that the instantaneous inter-electronic interactions may be quite significant in various physico-chemical processes involving MWCNTs, and can be used as a reliable predictor for their risk assessment. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Individual differences in the executive control of attention, memory, and thought, and their associations with schizotypy.

PubMed

Kane, Michael J; Meier, Matt E; Smeekens, Bridget A; Gross, Georgina M; Chun, Charlotte A; Silvia, Paul J; Kwapil, Thomas R

2016-08-01

A large correlational study took a latent-variable approach to the generality of executive control by testing the individual-differences structure of executive-attention capabilities and assessing their prediction of schizotypy, a multidimensional construct (with negative, positive, disorganized, and paranoid factors) conveying risk for schizophrenia. Although schizophrenia is convincingly linked to executive deficits, the schizotypy literature is equivocal. Subjects completed tasks of working memory capacity (WMC), attention restraint (inhibiting prepotent responses), and attention constraint (focusing visual attention amid distractors), the latter 2 in an effort to fractionate the "inhibition" construct. We also assessed mind-wandering propensity (via in-task thought probes) and coefficient of variation in response times (RT CoV) from several tasks as more novel indices of executive attention. WMC, attention restraint, attention constraint, mind wandering, and RT CoV were correlated but separable constructs, indicating some distinctions among "attention control" abilities; WMC correlated more strongly with attentional restraint than constraint, and mind wandering correlated more strongly with attentional restraint, attentional constraint, and RT CoV than with WMC. Across structural models, no executive construct predicted negative schizotypy and only mind wandering and RT CoV consistently (but modestly) predicted positive, disorganized, and paranoid schizotypy; stalwart executive constructs in the schizophrenia literature-WMC and attention restraint-showed little to no predictive power, beyond restraint's prediction of paranoia. Either executive deficits are consequences rather than risk factors for schizophrenia, or executive failures barely precede or precipitate diagnosable schizophrenia symptoms. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lafata, K; Ren, L; Wu, Q

Purpose: To develop a data-mining methodology based on quantum clustering and machine learning to predict expected dosimetric endpoints for lung SBRT applications based on patient-specific anatomic features. Methods: Ninety-three patients who received lung SBRT at our clinic from 2011–2013 were retrospectively identified. Planning information was acquired for each patient, from which various features were extracted using in-house semi-automatic software. Anatomic features included tumor-to-OAR distances, tumor location, total-lung-volume, GTV and ITV. Dosimetric endpoints were adopted from RTOG-0195 recommendations, and consisted of various OAR-specific partial-volume doses and maximum point-doses. First, PCA analysis and unsupervised quantum-clustering was used to explore the feature-space tomore » identify potentially strong classifiers. Secondly, a multi-class logistic regression algorithm was developed and trained to predict dose-volume endpoints based on patient-specific anatomic features. Classes were defined by discretizing the dose-volume data, and the feature-space was zero-mean normalized. Fitting parameters were determined by minimizing a regularized cost function, and optimization was performed via gradient descent. As a pilot study, the model was tested on two esophageal dosimetric planning endpoints (maximum point-dose, dose-to-5cc), and its generalizability was evaluated with leave-one-out cross-validation. Results: Quantum-Clustering demonstrated a strong separation of feature-space at 15Gy across the first-and-second Principle Components of the data when the dosimetric endpoints were retrospectively identified. Maximum point dose prediction to the esophagus demonstrated a cross-validation accuracy of 87%, and the maximum dose to 5cc demonstrated a respective value of 79%. The largest optimized weighting factor was placed on GTV-to-esophagus distance (a factor of 10 greater than the second largest weighting factor), indicating an intuitively strong correlation between this feature and both endpoints. Conclusion: This pilot study shows that it is feasible to predict dose-volume endpoints based on patient-specific anatomic features. The developed methodology can potentially help to identify patients at risk for higher OAR doses, thus improving the efficiency of treatment planning. R01-184173.« less

Describing and Predicting Developmental Profiles of Externalizing Problems from Childhood to Adulthood

PubMed Central

Petersen, Isaac T.; Bates, John E.; Dodge, Kenneth A.; Lansford, Jennifer E.; Pettit, Gregory S.

2014-01-01

This longitudinal study considers externalizing behavior problems from ages 5 to 27 (N = 585). Externalizing problem ratings by mothers, fathers, teachers, peers, and self-report were modeled with growth curves. Risk and protective factors across many different domains and time frames were included as predictors of the trajectories. A major contribution of the study is in demonstrating how heterotypic continuity and changing measures can be handled in modeling changes in externalizing behavior over long developmental periods. On average, externalizing problems decreased from early childhood to preadolescence, increased during adolescence, and decreased from late adolescence to adulthood. There was strong nonlinear continuity in externalizing problems over time. Family process, peer process, stress, and individual characteristics predicted externalizing problems beyond the strong continuity of externalizing problems. The model accounted for 70% of the variability in the development of externalizing problems. The model’s predicted values showed moderate sensitivity and specificity in prediction of arrests, illegal drug use, and drunk driving. Overall, the study showed that by using changing, developmentally-relevant measures and simultaneously taking into account numerous characteristics of children and their living situations, research can model lengthy spans of development and improve predictions of the development of later, severe externalizing problems. PMID:25166430

Marital stress and children's externalizing behavior as predictors of mothers' and fathers' parenting.

PubMed

Elam, Kit K; Chassin, Laurie; Eisenberg, Nancy; Spinrad, Tracy L

2017-10-01

Previous research suggests that mothers' and fathers' parenting may be differentially influenced by marital and child factors within the family. Some research indicates that marital stress is more influential in fathers' than mothers' parenting, whereas other research shows that children's difficult behavior preferentially affects mothers' parenting. The present study examined marital stress and children's externalizing behavior in middle childhood as predictors of mothers' versus fathers' consistency, monitoring, and support and care in early adolescence, and the subsequent associations of these parenting behaviors with externalizing behavior 1.5 years later. Pathways were examined within a longitudinal mediation model testing for moderation by parent gender (N = 276 mothers, N = 229 fathers). Children's externalizing behavior in middle childhood was found to more strongly inversely predict mothers' versus fathers' monitoring in early adolescence. In contrast, marital stress more strongly predicted low monitoring for fathers than for mothers. Regardless of parent gender, marital stress predicted lower levels of parental consistency, and children's externalizing behavior predicted lower levels of parental support. Mothers' monitoring and fathers' support in early adolescence predicted lower levels of externalizing behavior 1.5 years later. The results are discussed with respect to family transactions relative to parent gender and implications for intervention.

The fluctuating resource hypothesis explains invasibility, but not exotic advantage following disturbance.

PubMed

Pearson, Dean E; Ortega, Yvette K; Villarreal, Diego; Lekberg, Ylva; Cock, Marina C; Eren, Özkan; Hierro, José L

2018-06-01

Invasibility is a key indicator of community susceptibility to changes in structure and function. The fluctuating resource hypothesis (FRH) postulates that invasibility is an emergent community property, a manifestation of multiple processes that cannot be reliably predicted by individual community attributes like diversity or productivity. Yet, research has emphasized the role of these individual attributes, with the expectation that diversity should deter invasibility and productivity enhance it. In an effort to explore how these and other factors may influence invasibility, we evaluated the relationship between invasibility and species richness, productivity, resource availability, and resilience in experiments crossing disturbance with exotic seed addition in 1-m 2 plots replicated over large expanses of grasslands in Montana, USA and La Pampa, Argentina. Disturbance increased invasibility as predicted by FRH, but grasslands were more invasible in Montana than La Pampa whether disturbed or not, despite Montana's higher species richness and lower productivity. Moreover, invasibility correlated positively with nitrogen availability and negatively with native plant cover. These patterns suggested that resource availability and the ability of the community to recover from disturbance (resilience) better predicted invasibility than either species richness or productivity, consistent with predictions from FRH. However, in ambient, unseeded plots in Montana, disturbance reduced native cover by >50% while increasing exotic cover >200%. This provenance bias could not be explained by FRH, which predicts that colonization processes act on species' traits independent of origins. The high invasibility of Montana grasslands following disturbance was associated with a strong shift from perennial to annual species, as predicted by succession theory. However, this shift was driven primarily by exotic annuals, which were more strongly represented than perennials in local exotic vs. native species pools. We attribute this provenance bias to extrinsic biogeographic factors such as disparate evolutionary histories and/or introduction filters selecting for traits that favor exotics following disturbance. Our results suggest that (1) invasibility is an emergent property best explained by a community's efficiency in utilizing resources, as predicted by FRH but (2) understanding provenance biases in biological invasions requires moving beyond FRH to incorporate extrinsic biogeographic factors that may favor exotics in community assembly. © 2018 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ego Development in Predicting Life Satisfaction in the Aged.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Michaelson, Christina Branzel; And Others

Results of previous investigations of life satisfaction in the aged have suggested that health, socioeconomic factors, and social interaction are most strongly and consistently related to life satisfaction. However, a great deal of variance in life satisfaction remains unexplained. Men (N=19) and women (N=21) aged 65 years or older were…

Personality, Aging Self-Perceptions, and Subjective Health: A Mediation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moor, Caroline; Zimprich, Daniel; Schmitt, Marina; Kliegel, Matthias

2006-01-01

Since the global item of subjective health has emerged as a strong predictor of important health outcomes such as mortality, there have been many attempts to uncover its correlates. In this study, we tested whether personality as assessed via the five-factor model of personality predicted subjective health when physician-rated health and…

The current distribution, predictive modeling, and restoration potential of red spruce in West Virginia

Treesearch

Gregory Nowacki; Dan Wendt

2010-01-01

The environmental relationships of red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) were assessed in east-central West Virginia. Although many significant relationships existed, red spruce was most strongly associated with elevation, climate, and soil moisture factors. Specifically, red spruce was positively associated with elevation, number of frost days, mean...

An electron-beam dose deposition experiment: TIGER 1-D simulation code versus thermoluminescent dosimetry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Murrill, Steven R.; Tipton, Charles W.; Self, Charles T.

1991-03-01

The dose absorbed in an integrated circuit (IC) die exposed to a pulse of low-energy electrons is a strong function of both electron energy and surrounding packaging materials. This report describes an experiment designed to measure how well the Integrated TIGER Series one-dimensional (1-D) electron transport simulation program predicts dose correction factors for a state-of-the-art IC package and package/printed circuit board (PCB) combination. These derived factors are compared with data obtained experimentally using thermoluminescent dosimeters (TLD's) and the FX-45 flash x-ray machine (operated in electron-beam (e-beam) mode). The results of this experiment show that the TIGER 1-D simulation code can be used to accurately predict FX-45 e-beam dose deposition correction factors for reasonably complex IC packaging configurations.

Associations between Distal Upper Extremity Job Physical Factors and Psychosocial Measures in a Pooled Study

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Introduction. There is an increasing body of literature relating musculoskeletal diseases to both job physical exposures and psychosocial outcomes. Relationships between job physical exposure measures and psychosocial factors have not been well examined or quantified. These exploratory analyses evaluate relationships between quantified exposures and psychosocial outcomes. Methods. Individualized quantification of duration, repetition, and force and composite scores of the Strain Index (SI) and the Threshold Limit Value for Hand Activity Level (TLV for HAL) were compared to 10 psychosocial measures. Relationships and predicted probabilities were assessed using ordered logistic regression. Analyses were adjusted for age, BMI, and gender. Results and Discussion. Among 1834 study participants there were multiple statistically significant relationships. In general, as duration, repetition, and force increased, psychosocial factors worsened. However, general health and mental exhaustion improved with increasing job exposures. Depression was most strongly associated with increased repetition, while physical exhaustion was most strongly associated with increased force. SI and TLV for HAL were significantly related to multiple psychosocial factors. These relationships persisted after adjustment for strong confounders. Conclusion. This study quantified multiple associations between job physical exposures and occupational and nonoccupational psychosocial factors. Further research is needed to quantify the impacts on occupational health outcomes. PMID:26557686

The non-resonant kink modes triggering strong sawtooth-like crashes in the EAST tokamak

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Erzhong; Igochine, V.; Dumbrajs, O.; Xu, L.; Chen, K.; Shi, T.; Hu, L.

2014-12-01

Evolution of the safety factor (q) profile during L-H transitions in the Experimental Advanced Superconducting Tokamak (EAST) was accompanied by strong core crashes prior to regular sawtooth behavior. These crashes appeared in the absence of q = 1 (q is the safety factor) rational surface inside the plasma. Analysis indicates that the m/n = 2/1 tearing mode is destabilized and phase-locked with the m/n = 1/1 non-resonant kink mode (the q = 1 rational surface is absent) due to the self-consistent evolution of plasma profiles as the L-H transition occurs (m and n are the poloidal and toroidal mode numbers, respectively). The growing m/n = 1/1 mode destabilizes the m/n = 2/2 kink mode which eventually triggers the strong crash due to an anomalous heat conductivity, as predicted by the transport model of stochastic magnetic fields using experimental parameters. It is also shown that the magnetic topology changes with the amplitude of m/n = 2/2 mode and the value of center safety factor in a reasonable range.

Biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Chang, B P; Franklin, J C; Ribeiro, J D; Fox, K R; Bentley, K H; Kleiman, E M; Nock, M K

2016-01-01

Prior studies have proposed a wide range of potential biological risk factors for future suicidal behaviors. Although strong evidence exists for biological correlates of suicidal behaviors, it remains unclear if these correlates are also risk factors for suicidal behaviors. We performed a meta-analysis to integrate the existing literature on biological risk factors for suicidal behaviors and to determine their statistical significance. We conducted a systematic search of PubMed, PsycInfo and Google Scholar for studies that used a biological factor to predict either suicide attempt or death by suicide. Inclusion criteria included studies with at least one longitudinal analysis using a biological factor to predict either of these outcomes in any population through 2015. From an initial screen of 2541 studies we identified 94 cases. Random effects models were used for both meta-analyses and meta-regression. The combined effect of biological factors produced statistically significant but relatively weak prediction of suicide attempts (weighted mean odds ratio (wOR)=1.41; CI: 1.09–1.81) and suicide death (wOR=1.28; CI: 1.13–1.45). After accounting for publication bias, prediction was nonsignificant for both suicide attempts and suicide death. Only two factors remained significant after accounting for publication bias—cytokines (wOR=2.87; CI: 1.40–5.93) and low levels of fish oil nutrients (wOR=1.09; CI: 1.01–1.19). Our meta-analysis revealed that currently known biological factors are weak predictors of future suicidal behaviors. This conclusion should be interpreted within the context of the limitations of the existing literature, including long follow-up intervals and a lack of tests of interactions with other risk factors. Future studies addressing these limitations may more effectively test for potential biological risk factors. PMID:27622931

Physicochemical Approach to Determine the Mechanism for Acid-Base Disorders in 793 Hospitalized Foals.

PubMed

Gomez, D E; Biermann, N M; Sanchez, L C

2015-01-01

The quantitative effect of strong electrolytes, unmeasured strong anions (UAs), pCO2, and plasma protein concentrations in determining plasma pH can be demonstrated using the physicochemical approach. Plasma anion gap (AG) and strong ion gap (SIG) are used to assess UAs in different species. Strong ions are a major factor influencing changes in plasma pH of hospitalized foals. AG and SIG accurately predict severe hyper-L-lactatemia ([L-lac(-)] > 7 mmol/L). Seven hundred and ninety three hospitalized foals < 7 days old. Retrospective study. The relationship between measured pH and physicochemical variables, and the relationship between plasma [L-lac(-)] and AG and SIG, were determined using regression analyses. Optimal AG and SIG cut points to predict hyper-L-lactatemia were identified using an ROC curve analysis. Combined, the measured strong ion difference and SIG accounted for 54-69% of the changes in the measured arterial pH of hospitalized foals. AG and SIG were significantly associated with plasma [L-lac(-)] (P < .0001). The receiver operator characteristics (ROC) AUC of AG and SIG for prediction of severe hyper-L-lactatemia were 0.89 (95%CI, 0.8-0.95; P < .0001) and 0.90 (95%CI, 0.81-0.96; P < .0001), respectively. Severe hyper-L-lactatemia was best predicted by AG > 27 mmol/L (sensitivity 80%, 95%CI, 56-94, specificity 85%, 95%CI, 73-93; P < .0001) and SIG <-15 mmol/L (sensitivity 90%, 95%CI, 68-98; specificity 80%; 95%CI, 68-90; P < .0001). Altered concentrations of strong ions (Na(+), K(+), Cl(-)) and UAs were the primary cause of acidemia of hospitalized foals. AG and SIG were good predictors of hyper-L-lactatemia and could be used as surrogate tests. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Assessing Bleeding Risk in Patients Taking Anticoagulants

PubMed Central

Shoeb, Marwa; Fang, Margaret C.

2013-01-01

Anticoagulant medications are commonly used for the prevention and treatment of thromboembolism. Although highly effective, they are also associated with significant bleeding risks. Numerous individual clinical factors have been linked to an increased risk of hemorrhage, including older age, anemia, and renal disease. To help quantify hemorrhage risk for individual patients, a number of clinical risk prediction tools have been developed. These risk prediction tools differ in how they were derived and how they identify and weight individual risk factors. At present, their ability to effective predict anticoagulant-associated hemorrhage remains modest. Use of risk prediction tools to estimate bleeding in clinical practice is most influential when applied to patients at the lower spectrum of thromboembolic risk, when the risk of hemorrhage will more strongly affect clinical decisions about anticoagulation. Using risk tools may also help counsel and inform patients about their potential risk for hemorrhage while on anticoagulants, and can identify patients who might benefit from more careful management of anticoagulation. PMID:23479259

T56. AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS CONVERTING SCORES BETWEEN THE PANSS AND BNSS

PubMed Central

Kott, Alan; Daniel, David

2018-01-01

Abstract Background The Brief Negative Symptom Scale is a relatively new instrument designed specifically to measure the negative symptoms in schizophrenia. Recently more clinical trials include the BNSS scale as a secondary or exploratory outcome, typically along with the PANSS. In the current analysis we aimed at establishing the equations that would allow conversion between the BNSS scale total score and the PANSS negative subscale and PANSS negative factors score as well as conversion equations between the expressive deficits and avolition/apathy factors of the scales. (Kirkpatrick, 2011; Strauss, 2012) Methods Data from 518 schizophrenia clinical trials subjects with both PANSS and BNSS data available were used. Regression analyses predicting the BNSS total score with the PANSS negative subscale score, and the BNSS total score with the PANSS Negative factor (NFS) score were performed on data from all subjects. Regression analyses predicting the BNSS avolition/apathy factor (items 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, and 8) with the PANSS avolition/apathy factor (items N2, N4 and G16) and the BNSS expressive deficits factor (items 4, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13)with the expressive deficits factor (items N1, N3, N6, G5, G7, and G13)of the PANSS were performed on a sample of 318 subjects with individual BNSS item scores available. In addition to estimating the equations we as well calculated the Pearson’s correlations between the scales. Results The PANSS and BNSS avolition/apathy factors were highly correlated (r=0.70) as were the expressive deficit factors r=0.83). The following equations predicting the BNSS total score were obtained from regression analyses performed on 2,560 data points: BNSS_total = -11.64 + 2.10*PANSS_negative_subscale BNSS_total = -9.26 + 2.11*PANSS_NFS The following equations predicting the BNSS factor scores from the PANSS factor scores were obtained from regression analyses performed on 1,634 data points: BNSS_avolition/apathy = -2.40 + 2.38 * PANSS_avolition/apathy BNSS_expressive_deficit_factor = -4.21 + 1.27 * PANSS_expressive_deficit_factor Discussion The BNSS differs from the PANSS negative factor because it addresses all five currently recognized domains of negative symptoms including anhedonia and attempts to differentiate anticipatory from consummatory states. In our analysis we have replicated the strong correlation between the BNSS total score and PANSS negative subscale and newly identified strong correlations between the BNSS total score and NFS as well as strong correlations between the avolotion/apathy and expressive deficit factors of the BNSS and the PANSS scales. (Kirkpatrick, 2011)The provided equations offer a useful tool allowing researchers and clinicians to easily convert the data between the instruments for reasons such as pooling data from multiple trials using one of the instruments, to allow interpretation of results within the context of previously conducted research, etc. but as well offer a framework for risk based monitoring to identify data deviating from the expected relationship and allow for a targeted exploration of the causes for such a disagreement. The data used for analysis included not only subjects with predominantly negative symptoms but as well acutely psychotic subjects as well as subjects in stable conditions allowing therefore to generalize the results across the majority of schizophrenic subjects. This post-hoc analysis is exploratory. We plan to further explore the potential utility of equations addressing the relationships among schizophrenia measures of symptom severity in an iterative manner with larger datasets.

Ultra-Long Time Dynamics of Contaminant Plume Mixing Induced by Transient Forcing Factors in Geologic Formations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rajabi, F.; Battiato, I.

2016-12-01

Long term predictions of the impact of anthropogenic stressors on the environment is essential to reduce the risks associated with processes such as CO2 sequestration and nuclear waste storage in the subsurface. On the other hand, transient forcing factors (e.g. time-varying injection or pumping rate) with evolving heterogeneity of time scales spanning from days to years can influence transport phenomena at the pore scale. A comprehensive spatio-temporal prediction of reactive transport in porous media under time-dependent forcing factors for thousands of years requires the formulation of continuum scale models for time-averages. Yet, as every macroscopic model, time-averaged models can loose predictivity and accuracy when certain conditions are violated. This is true whenever lack of temporal and spatial scale separation occurs and it makes the continuum scale equation a poor assumption for the processes at the pore scale. In this work, we consider mass transport of a dissolved species undergoing a heterogeneous reaction and subject to time-varying boundary conditions in a periodic porous medium. By means of homogenization method and asymptotic expansion technique, we derive a macro-time continuum-scale equation as well as expressions for its effective properties. Our analysis demonstrates that the dynamics at the macro-scale is strongly influenced by the interplay between signal frequency at the boundary and transport processes at the pore level. In addition, we provide the conditions under which the space-time averaged equations accurately describe pore-scale processes. To validate our theoretical predictions, we consider a thin fracture with reacting walls and transient boundary conditions at the inlet. Our analysis shows a good agreement between numerical simulations and theoretical predictions. Furthermore, our numerical experiments show that mixing patterns of the contaminant plumes at the pore level strongly depend on the signal frequency.

An improved distance-to-dose correlation for predicting bladder and rectum dose-volumes in knowledge-based VMAT planning for prostate cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wall, Phillip D. H.; Carver, Robert L.; Fontenot, Jonas D.

2018-01-01

The overlap volume histogram (OVH) is an anatomical metric commonly used to quantify the geometric relationship between an organ at risk (OAR) and target volume when predicting expected dose-volumes in knowledge-based planning (KBP). This work investigated the influence of additional variables contributing to variations in the assumed linear DVH-OVH correlation for the bladder and rectum in VMAT plans of prostate patients, with the goal of increasing prediction accuracy and achievability of knowledge-based planning methods. VMAT plans were retrospectively generated for 124 prostate patients using multi-criteria optimization. DVHs quantified patient dosimetric data while OVHs quantified patient anatomical information. The DVH-OVH correlations were calculated for fractional bladder and rectum volumes of 30, 50, 65, and 80%. Correlations between potential influencing factors and dose were quantified using the Pearson product-moment correlation coefficient (R). Factors analyzed included the derivative of the OVH, prescribed dose, PTV volume, bladder volume, rectum volume, and in-field OAR volume. Out of the selected factors, only the in-field bladder volume (mean R  =  0.86) showed a strong correlation with bladder doses. Similarly, only the in-field rectal volume (mean R  =  0.76) showed a strong correlation with rectal doses. Therefore, an OVH formalism accounting for in-field OAR volumes was developed to determine the extent to which it improved the DVH-OVH correlation. Including the in-field factor improved the DVH-OVH correlation, with the mean R values over the fractional volumes studied improving from  -0.79 to  -0.85 and  -0.82 to  -0.86 for the bladder and rectum, respectively. A re-planning study was performed on 31 randomly selected database patients to verify the increased accuracy of KBP dose predictions by accounting for bladder and rectum volume within treatment fields. The in-field OVH led to significantly more precise and fewer unachievable KBP predictions, especially for lower bladder and rectum dose-volumes.

Self-Determination Theory and Outpatient Follow-Up After Psychiatric Hospitalization.

PubMed

Sripada, Rebecca K; Bowersox, Nicholas W; Ganoczy, Dara; Valenstein, Marcia; Pfeiffer, Paul N

2016-08-01

The objective of this study was to assess whether the constructs of self-determination theory-autonomy, competence, and relatedness-are associated with adherence to outpatient follow-up appointments after psychiatric hospitalization. 242 individuals discharged from inpatient psychiatric treatment within the Veterans Health Administration completed surveys assessing self-determination theory constructs as well as measures of depression and barriers to treatment. Medical records were used to count the number of mental health visits and no-shows in the 14 weeks following discharge. Logistic regression models assessed the association between survey items assessing theory constructs and attendance at mental healthcare visits. In multivariate models, none of the self-determination theory factors predicted outpatient follow-up attendance. The constructs of self-determination theory as measured by a single self-report survey may not reliably predict adherence to post-hospital care. Need factors such as depression may be more strongly predictive of treatment adherence.

Predictors of Extradyadic Sexual Involvement in Unmarried Opposite-Sex Relationships

PubMed Central

Maddox Shaw, Amanda M.; Rhoades, Galena K.; Allen, Elizabeth S.; Stanley, Scott M.; Markman, Howard J.

2012-01-01

Using a sample of unmarried individuals in opposite-sex romantic relationships that was representative of the United States (N = 933), the current study prospectively evaluated predictors of extradyadic sexual involvement (ESI) over 20-months. Data were collected with self-report questionnaires via U.S. mail. Participants were 18–35 years old and were 34.9% male. Variables tested as predictors included involved-partner factors such as demographic characteristics, sexual history, and mental health, as well as relationship-related factors including communication, sexual dynamics, and aspects of commitment. Future ESI was significantly predicted by lower baseline relationship satisfaction, negative communication, aggression, lower dedication, absence of plans to marry, suspicion of partner’s ESI, and partner’s ESI. It was not predicted by sexual frequency, sexual dissatisfaction, or cohabitation status. Although more problems with alcohol use, more previous sex partners, and having parents who never married one another predicted future ESI, there were many involved-partner demographic factors that did not predict later ESI (e.g., gender, age, education, religiosity, having divorced parents, and having children). None of the results were moderated by gender. These results suggest that compared to demographic characteristics, relationship dynamics and negative interactions are more strongly predictive of future ESI. Implications for future research are discussed. PMID:22524318

The factor structure of complex posttraumatic stress disorder in traumatized refugees.

PubMed

Nickerson, Angela; Cloitre, Marylene; Bryant, Richard A; Schnyder, Ulrich; Morina, Naser; Schick, Matthis

2016-01-01

The construct of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (CPTSD) has attracted much research attention in previous years, however it has not been systematically evaluated in individuals exposed to persecution and displacement. Given that CPTSD has been proposed as a diagnostic category in the ICD-11, it is important that it be examined in refugee groups. In the current study, we proposed to test, for the first time, the factor structure of CPTSD proposed for the ICD-11 in a sample of resettled treatment-seeking refugees. The study sample consisted of 134 traumatized refugees from a variety of countries of origin, with approximately 93% of the sample having been exposed to torture. We used confirmatory factor analysis to examine the factor structure of CPTSD in this sample and examined the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive power and negative predictive power of individual items in relation to the CPTSD diagnosis. Findings revealed that a two-factor higher-order model of CPTSD comprising PTSD and Difficulties in Self-Organization (χ 2 (47)=57.322, p =0.144, RMSEA=0.041, CFI=0.981, TLI=0.974) evidenced superior fit compared to a one-factor higher-order model of CPTSD (χ 2 (48)=65.745, p =0.045, RMSEA=0.053, CFI=0.968, TLI=0.956). Overall, items evidenced strong sensitivity and negative predictive power, moderate positive predictive power, and poor specificity. Findings provide preliminary evidence for the validity of the CPTSD construct with highly traumatized treatment-seeking refugees.

Repetition of intentional drug overdose: a population-based study.

PubMed

Finkelstein, Yaron; Macdonald, Erin M; Hollands, Simon; Sivilotti, Marco L A; Hutson, Janine R; Mamdani, Muhammad M; Koren, Gideon; Juurlink, David N

2016-08-01

Intentional overdose is a leading method of self-harm and suicide, and repeat attempts strongly predict eventual death by suicide. To determine the risk of recurrence after a first intentional overdose. Secondary objectives included characterization of the temporal course and potential predictors of repeat overdose, a strong risk factor for death from suicide. Population-based cohort study. Ontario, Canada, from 1 April 2002 to 31 March 2013. All Ontario residents presenting to an emergency department after a first intentional overdose. The incidence and timing of recurrent overdose. We followed 81,675 patients discharged from hospital after a first intentional overdose. Overall, 13,903 (17.0%) returned with a repeat overdose after a median interval of 288 (inter-quartile range: 62 to 834) days. Of these, 4493 (5.5%) had multiple repeat episodes. Factors associated with repeat self-poisoning included psychiatric care in the preceding year (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.55; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.50 to 1.61), alcohol dependence (aHR 1.41; 95% CI 1.35 to 1.46) and documented depression (aHR 1.39; 95% CI 1.34 to 1.44). Female sex, rural residence, lower socioeconomic status, ingestion of psychoactive drugs and younger age were also weakly associated with repeat overdose. Hospital presentation for repetition of intentional overdose is common, with recurrent episodes often far removed from the first. While several factors predict overdose repetition, none is particularly strong. Secondary prevention initiatives should be implemented for all individuals who present to the emergency department and survive intentional overdose.

Strong Tracking Spherical Simplex-Radial Cubature Kalman Filter for Maneuvering Target Tracking.

PubMed

Liu, Hua; Wu, Wen

2017-03-31

Conventional spherical simplex-radial cubature Kalman filter (SSRCKF) for maneuvering target tracking may decline in accuracy and even diverge when a target makes abrupt state changes. To overcome this problem, a novel algorithm named strong tracking spherical simplex-radial cubature Kalman filter (STSSRCKF) is proposed in this paper. The proposed algorithm uses the spherical simplex-radial (SSR) rule to obtain a higher accuracy than cubature Kalman filter (CKF) algorithm. Meanwhile, by introducing strong tracking filter (STF) into SSRCKF and modifying the predicted states' error covariance with a time-varying fading factor, the gain matrix is adjusted on line so that the robustness of the filter and the capability of dealing with uncertainty factors is improved. In this way, the proposed algorithm has the advantages of both STF's strong robustness and SSRCKF's high accuracy. Finally, a maneuvering target tracking problem with abrupt state changes is used to test the performance of the proposed filter. Simulation results show that the STSSRCKF algorithm can get better estimation accuracy and greater robustness for maneuvering target tracking.

Strong Tracking Spherical Simplex-Radial Cubature Kalman Filter for Maneuvering Target Tracking

PubMed Central

Liu, Hua; Wu, Wen

2017-01-01

Conventional spherical simplex-radial cubature Kalman filter (SSRCKF) for maneuvering target tracking may decline in accuracy and even diverge when a target makes abrupt state changes. To overcome this problem, a novel algorithm named strong tracking spherical simplex-radial cubature Kalman filter (STSSRCKF) is proposed in this paper. The proposed algorithm uses the spherical simplex-radial (SSR) rule to obtain a higher accuracy than cubature Kalman filter (CKF) algorithm. Meanwhile, by introducing strong tracking filter (STF) into SSRCKF and modifying the predicted states’ error covariance with a time-varying fading factor, the gain matrix is adjusted on line so that the robustness of the filter and the capability of dealing with uncertainty factors is improved. In this way, the proposed algorithm has the advantages of both STF’s strong robustness and SSRCKF’s high accuracy. Finally, a maneuvering target tracking problem with abrupt state changes is used to test the performance of the proposed filter. Simulation results show that the STSSRCKF algorithm can get better estimation accuracy and greater robustness for maneuvering target tracking. PMID:28362347

Solute transport in crystalline rocks at Äspö — II: Blind predictions, inverse modelling and lessons learnt from test STT1

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jakob, Andreas; Mazurek, Martin; Heer, Walter

2003-03-01

Based on the results from detailed structural and petrological characterisation and on up-scaled laboratory values for sorption and diffusion, blind predictions were made for the STT1 dipole tracer test performed in the Swedish Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory. The tracers used were nonsorbing, such as uranine and tritiated water, weakly sorbing 22Na +, 85Sr 2+, 47Ca 2+and more strongly sorbing 86Rb +, 133Ba 2+, 137Cs +. Our model consists of two parts: (1) a flow part based on a 2D-streamtube formalism accounting for the natural background flow field and with an underlying homogeneous and isotropic transmissivity field and (2) a transport part in terms of the dual porosity medium approach which is linked to the flow part by the flow porosity. The calibration of the model was done using the data from one single uranine breakthrough (PDT3). The study clearly showed that matrix diffusion into a highly porous material, fault gouge, had to be included in our model evidenced by the characteristic shape of the breakthrough curve and in line with geological observations. After the disclosure of the measurements, it turned out that, in spite of the simplicity of our model, the prediction for the nonsorbing and weakly sorbing tracers was fairly good. The blind prediction for the more strongly sorbing tracers was in general less accurate. The reason for the good predictions is deemed to be the result of the choice of a model structure strongly based on geological observation. The breakthrough curves were inversely modelled to determine in situ values for the transport parameters and to draw consequences on the model structure applied. For good fits, only one additional fracture family in contact with cataclasite had to be taken into account, but no new transport mechanisms had to be invoked. The in situ values for the effective diffusion coefficient for fault gouge are a factor of 2-15 larger than the laboratory data. For cataclasite, both data sets have values comparable to laboratory data. The extracted Kd values for the weakly sorbing tracers are larger than Swedish laboratory data by a factor of 25-60, but agree within a factor of 3-5 for the more strongly sorbing nuclides. The reason for the inconsistency concerning Kds is the use of fresh granite in the laboratory studies, whereas tracers in the field experiments interact only with fracture fault gouge and to a lesser extent with cataclasite both being mineralogically very different (e.g. clay-bearing) from the intact wall rock.

Forming Attitudes That Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude–Behavior Relation

PubMed Central

Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracín, Dolores

2016-01-01

A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of increased accessibility, attitudes more strongly predicted future behavior when participants had direct experience with the attitude object and reported their attitudes frequently. Because of the resulting attitude stability, the attitude–behavior association was strongest when attitudes were confident, when participants formed their attitude on the basis of behavior-relevant information, and when they received or were induced to think about one- rather than two-sided information about the attitude object. PMID:16910754

Depression is more than the sum-score of its parts: individual DSM symptoms have different risk factors

PubMed Central

Fried, Eiko I.; Nesse, Randolph M.; Zivin, Kara; Guille, Constance; Sen, Srijan

2014-01-01

Background For diagnostic purposes, the nine symptoms that compose the DSM-5 criteria for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) are assumed to be interchangeable indicators of one underlying disorder, implying that they should all have similar risk factors. The present study investigates this hypothesis, utilizing a population cohort that shifts from low to elevated depression levels. Methods We assessed the nine DSM-5 MDD criterion symptoms and seven depression risk factors (personal and family MDD history, sex, childhood stress, neuroticism, work hours, and stressful life events) in a longitudinal study of medical interns prior to and throughout internship (n=1289). We tested if risk factors varied across symptoms, and whether a latent disease model could account for heterogeneity between symptoms. Results All MDD symptoms increased significantly during residency training. Four risk factors predicted increases in unique subsets of PHQ-9 symptoms over time (depression history, childhood stress, sex, and stressful life events), while neuroticism and work hours predicted increases in all symptoms, albeit to varying magnitudes. MDD family history did not predict increases in any symptom. The strong heterogeneity of associations persisted after controlling for a latent depression factor. Conclusions The influence of risk factors varies substantially across DSM depression criterion symptoms. Since symptoms are etiologically heterogeneous, considering individual symptoms in addition to depression diagnosis might offer important insights obfuscated by symptom sum-scores. PMID:24289852

Predictive analysis effectiveness in determining the epidemic disease infected area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ibrahim, Najihah; Akhir, Nur Shazwani Md.; Hassan, Fadratul Hafinaz

2017-10-01

Epidemic disease outbreak had caused nowadays community to raise their great concern over the infectious disease controlling, preventing and handling methods to diminish the disease dissemination percentage and infected area. Backpropagation method was used for the counter measure and prediction analysis of the epidemic disease. The predictive analysis based on the backpropagation method can be determine via machine learning process that promotes the artificial intelligent in pattern recognition, statistics and features selection. This computational learning process will be integrated with data mining by measuring the score output as the classifier to the given set of input features through classification technique. The classification technique is the features selection of the disease dissemination factors that likely have strong interconnection between each other in causing infectious disease outbreaks. The predictive analysis of epidemic disease in determining the infected area was introduced in this preliminary study by using the backpropagation method in observation of other's findings. This study will classify the epidemic disease dissemination factors as the features for weight adjustment on the prediction of epidemic disease outbreaks. Through this preliminary study, the predictive analysis is proven to be effective method in determining the epidemic disease infected area by minimizing the error value through the features classification.

Multivariate predictors of music perception and appraisal by adult cochlear implant users.

PubMed

Gfeller, Kate; Oleson, Jacob; Knutson, John F; Breheny, Patrick; Driscoll, Virginia; Olszewski, Carol

2008-02-01

The research examined whether performance by adult cochlear implant recipients on a variety of recognition and appraisal tests derived from real-world music could be predicted from technological, demographic, and life experience variables, as well as speech recognition scores. A representative sample of 209 adults implanted between 1985 and 2006 participated. Using multiple linear regression models and generalized linear mixed models, sets of optimal predictor variables were selected that effectively predicted performance on a test battery that assessed different aspects of music listening. These analyses established the importance of distinguishing between the accuracy of music perception and the appraisal of musical stimuli when using music listening as an index of implant success. Importantly, neither device type nor processing strategy predicted music perception or music appraisal. Speech recognition performance was not a strong predictor of music perception, and primarily predicted music perception when the test stimuli included lyrics. Additionally, limitations in the utility of speech perception in predicting musical perception and appraisal underscore the utility of music perception as an alternative outcome measure for evaluating implant outcomes. Music listening background, residual hearing (i.e., hearing aid use), cognitive factors, and some demographic factors predicted several indices of perceptual accuracy or appraisal of music.

Long-term prediction of fish growth under varying ambient temperature using a multiscale dynamic model

PubMed Central

2009-01-01

Background Feed composition has a large impact on the growth of animals, particularly marine fish. We have developed a quantitative dynamic model that can predict the growth and body composition of marine fish for a given feed composition over a timespan of several months. The model takes into consideration the effects of environmental factors, particularly temperature, on growth, and it incorporates detailed kinetics describing the main metabolic processes (protein, lipid, and central metabolism) known to play major roles in growth and body composition. Results For validation, we compared our model's predictions with the results of several experimental studies. We showed that the model gives reliable predictions of growth, nutrient utilization (including amino acid retention), and body composition over a timespan of several months, longer than most of the previously developed predictive models. Conclusion We demonstrate that, despite the difficulties involved, multiscale models in biology can yield reasonable and useful results. The model predictions are reliable over several timescales and in the presence of strong temperature fluctuations, which are crucial factors for modeling marine organism growth. The model provides important improvements over existing models. PMID:19903354

Cerebrospinal Fluid Pressure: Revisiting Factors Influencing Optic Nerve Head Biomechanics

PubMed Central

Hua, Yi; Voorhees, Andrew P.; Sigal, Ian A.

2018-01-01

Purpose To model the sensitivity of the optic nerve head (ONH) biomechanical environment to acute variations in IOP, cerebrospinal fluid pressure (CSFP), and central retinal artery blood pressure (BP). Methods We extended a previously published numerical model of the ONH to include 24 factors representing tissue anatomy and mechanical properties, all three pressures, and constraints on the optic nerve (CON). A total of 8340 models were studied to predict factor influences on 98 responses in a two-step process: a fractional factorial screening analysis to identify the 16 most influential factors, followed by a response surface methodology to predict factor effects in detail. Results The six most influential factors were, in order: IOP, CON, moduli of the sclera, lamina cribrosa (LC) and dura, and CSFP. IOP and CSFP affected different aspects of ONH biomechanics. The strongest influence of CSFP, more than twice that of IOP, was on the rotation of the peripapillary sclera. CSFP had similar influence on LC stretch and compression to moduli of sclera and LC. On some ONHs, CSFP caused large retrolamina deformations and subarachnoid expansion. CON had a strong influence on LC displacement. BP overall influence was 633 times smaller than that of IOP. Conclusions Models predict that IOP and CSFP are the top and sixth most influential factors on ONH biomechanics. Different IOP and CSFP effects suggest that translaminar pressure difference may not be a good parameter to predict biomechanics-related glaucomatous neuropathy. CON may drastically affect the responses relating to gross ONH geometry and should be determined experimentally. PMID:29332130

Academic Performance and Learning Style Self-Predictions by Second Language Students in an Introductory Biology Course

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breckler, Jennifer; Teoh, Chia Shan; Role, Kemi

2011-01-01

Academic success in first-year college science coursework can strongly influence future career paths and usually includes a solid performance in introductory biology. We wanted to know whether factors affecting biology student performance might include learning style preferences and one's ability and confidence in self-assessing those learning…

Predicting Performance in Practical Writing: Factors That Influence Success in the Introductory Business Communication Course.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Siegel, Gerald

A study attempted to develop and test a questionnaire that could combine various sorts of demographic information to identify strong or weak students and forecast their course performance. The study determined if a significant relationship existed between students' personal and academic profiles and their final course grades in an introductory…

Developmental Relations between Alcohol Expectancies and Social Norms in Predicting Alcohol Onset

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Janssen, Tim; Treloar Padovano, Hayley; Merrill, Jennifer E.; Jackson, Kristina M.

2018-01-01

Expectations about alcohol's effects and perceptions of peers' behaviors and beliefs related to alcohol use are each shown to strongly influence the timing of drinking onset during adolescence. The present study builds on prior work by examining the conjoint effects of within-person changes in these social-cognitive factors on age of adolescent…

Measurement Invariance of the Student Personal Perception of Classroom Climate Scale (SPPCC) in the Turkish Context

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bahar, Mustafa; Asil, Mustafa; Rubie-Davies, Christine M.

2018-01-01

Among school psycho-social factors with considerable effect on student outcomes are both school and classroom climate. Because how students perceive the classroom climate strongly predicts achievement, measuring classroom climate gains importance and the need for testing the existing results across cultures persists. In this study, we assessed the…

The Role of Motivational and Persuasive Message Factors in Changing Implicit Attitudes Toward Smoking

PubMed Central

Rydell, Robert J.; Sherman, Steven J.; Boucher, Kathryn L.; Macy, Jonathan T.

2012-01-01

The current work examined the extent to which nicotine level affects the receptiveness of cigarette smokers to a compelling (strong) or a specious (weak) antismoking, public service announcement (PSA). The combination of nicotine loading (i.e., having just smoked a cigarette) and a strong antismoking PSA led to significantly more negative implicit evaluations of cigarettes; however, explicit evaluations were not changed by nicotine level or PSA quality. Smokers’ implicit evaluations of cigarettes were affected only by compelling PSAs when they had recently smoked but not when they were nicotine deprived or when they viewed weak PSAs. Because implicit evaluations of cigarettes predict deliberate smoking-related decisions, it is important to understand which factors can render these implicit evaluations relatively more negative. PMID:23606782

Cosmic rays, solar activity, magnetic coupling, and lightning incidence

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ely, J. T. A.

1984-01-01

A theoretical model is presented and described that unifies the complex influence of several factors on spatial and temporal variation of lightning incidence. These factors include the cosmic radiation, solar activity, and coupling between geomagnetic and interplanetary (solar wind) magnetic fields. Atmospheric electrical conductivity in the 10 km region was shown to be the crucial parameter altered by these factors. The theory reconciles several large scale studies of lightning incidence previously misinterpreted or considered contradictory. The model predicts additional strong effects on variations in lightning incidence, but only small effects on the morphology and rate of thunderstorm development.

Hadronic production of W and Z bosons at large transverse momentum

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berger, Edmond L.; Gao, Jun; Kang, Zhong-Bo

2015-06-01

We introduce a modified factorization formalism in quantum chromodynamics for hadronic production of W and Z bosons at large transverse momentum p(T). When p(T) is much larger than the invariant mass Q of the vector boson, this new factorization formalism systematically resums the large fragmentation logarithms, alpha(m)(s)ln(m) (p(T)(2)/Q(2)), to all orders in the strong coupling alpha(s). Using our modified factorization formalism, we present the next-to-leading-order (NLO) predictions for W and Z boson production at high p(T) at the CERN Large Hadron Collider and at a future 100 TeV proton-proton collider. Our NLO results are about 5% larger in normalization, andmore » they show improved convergence and moderate reduction of the scale variation compared to the NLO predictions derived in a conventional fixed-order perturbative expansion.« less

Triggering Factor of Strong Earthquakes and Its Prediction Verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ren, Z. Q.; Ren, S. H.

After 30 yearsS research, we have found that great earthquakes are triggered by tide- generation force of the moon. ItSs not the tide-generation force in classical view- points, but is a non-classical viewpoint tide-generation force. We call it as TGFR (Tide-Generation ForcesS Resonance). TGFR strongly depends on the tide-generation force at time of the strange astronomical points (SAP). The SAP mostly are when the moon and another celestial body are arranged with the earth along a straight line (with the same apparent right ascension or 180o difference), the other SAP are the turning points of the moonSs relatively motion to the earth. Moreover, TGFR have four different types effective areas. Our study indicates that a majority of earthquakes are triggering by the rare superimposition of TGFRsS effective areas. In China the great earthquakes in the plain area of Hebei Province, Taiwan, Yunnan Province and Sichuan province are trigger by the decompression TGFR; Other earthquakes are trig- gered by compression TGFR which are in Gansu Province, Ningxia Provinces and northwest direction of Beijing. The great earthquakes in Japan, California, southeast of Europe also are triggered by compression of the TGFR. and in the other part of the world like in Philippines, Central America countries, and West Asia, great earthquakes are triggered by decompression TGFR. We have carried out examinational immediate prediction cooperate TGFR method with other earthquake impending signals such as suggested by Professor Li Junzhi. The successful ratio is about 40%(from our fore- cast reports to the China Seismological Administration). Thus we could say the great earthquake can be predicted (include immediate earthquake prediction). Key words: imminent prediction; triggering factor; TGFR (Tide-Generation ForcesS Resonance); TGFR compression; TGFR compression zone; TGFR decompression; TGFR decom- pression zone

Multi-factorial analysis of class prediction error: estimating optimal number of biomarkers for various classification rules.

PubMed

Khondoker, Mizanur R; Bachmann, Till T; Mewissen, Muriel; Dickinson, Paul; Dobrzelecki, Bartosz; Campbell, Colin J; Mount, Andrew R; Walton, Anthony J; Crain, Jason; Schulze, Holger; Giraud, Gerard; Ross, Alan J; Ciani, Ilenia; Ember, Stuart W J; Tlili, Chaker; Terry, Jonathan G; Grant, Eilidh; McDonnell, Nicola; Ghazal, Peter

2010-12-01

Machine learning and statistical model based classifiers have increasingly been used with more complex and high dimensional biological data obtained from high-throughput technologies. Understanding the impact of various factors associated with large and complex microarray datasets on the predictive performance of classifiers is computationally intensive, under investigated, yet vital in determining the optimal number of biomarkers for various classification purposes aimed towards improved detection, diagnosis, and therapeutic monitoring of diseases. We investigate the impact of microarray based data characteristics on the predictive performance for various classification rules using simulation studies. Our investigation using Random Forest, Support Vector Machines, Linear Discriminant Analysis and k-Nearest Neighbour shows that the predictive performance of classifiers is strongly influenced by training set size, biological and technical variability, replication, fold change and correlation between biomarkers. Optimal number of biomarkers for a classification problem should therefore be estimated taking account of the impact of all these factors. A database of average generalization errors is built for various combinations of these factors. The database of generalization errors can be used for estimating the optimal number of biomarkers for given levels of predictive accuracy as a function of these factors. Examples show that curves from actual biological data resemble that of simulated data with corresponding levels of data characteristics. An R package optBiomarker implementing the method is freely available for academic use from the Comprehensive R Archive Network (http://www.cran.r-project.org/web/packages/optBiomarker/).

Pre-resuscitation factors associated with mortality in 49,130 cases of in-hospital cardiac arrest: a report from the National Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation.

PubMed

Larkin, Gregory Luke; Copes, Wayne S; Nathanson, Brian H; Kaye, William

2010-03-01

To evaluate key pre-arrest factors and their collective ability to predict post-cardiopulmonary arrest mortality. CPR is often initiated indiscriminately after in-hospital cardiopulmonary arrest. Improved understanding of pre-arrest factors associated with mortality may inform advance care planning. A cohort of 49,130 adults who experienced pulseless cardiopulmonary arrest from January 2000 to September 2004 was obtained from 366 US hospitals participating in the National Registry for Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation (NRCPR). Logistic regression with bootstrapping was used to model in-hospital mortality, which included those discharged in unfavorable and severely worsened neurologic state (Cerebral Performance Category >/=3). Overall in-hospital mortality was 84.1%. Advanced age, black race, non-cardiac, non-surgical illness category, pre-existing malignancy, acute stroke, trauma, septicemia, hepatic insufficiency, general floor or Emergency Department location, and pre-arrest use of vasopressors or assisted/mechanical ventilation were independently predictive of in-hospital mortality. Retained peri-arrest factors including cardiac monitoring, and shockable initial pulseless rhythms, were strongly associated with survival. The validation model's AUROC curve (0.77) revealed fair performance. Predictive pre-resuscitation factors may supplement patient-specific information available at bedside to assist in revising resuscitation plans during the patient's hospitalization. Copyright 2009. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Adolescent eating disorder behaviours and cognitions: gender-specific effects of child, maternal and family risk factors

PubMed Central

Micali, N.; De Stavola, B.; Ploubidis, G.; Simonoff, E.; Treasure, J.; Field, A. E.

2015-01-01

Background Eating disorder behaviours begin in adolescence. Few longitudinal studies have investigated childhood risk and protective factors. Aims To investigate the prevalence of eating disorder behaviours and cognitions and associated childhood psychological, physical and parental risk factors among a cohort of 14-year-old children. Method Data were collected from 6140 boys and girls aged 14 years. Gender-stratified models were used to estimate prospective associations between childhood body dissatisfaction, body mass index (BMI), self-esteem, maternal eating disorder and family economic disadvantage on adolescent eating disorder behaviours and cognitions. Results Childhood body dissatisfaction strongly predicted eating disorder cognitions in girls, but only in interaction with BMI in boys. Higher self-esteem had a protective effect, particularly in boys. Maternal eating disorder predicted body dissatisfaction and weight/shape concern in adolescent girls and dieting in boys. Conclusions Risk factors for eating disorder behaviours and cognitions vary according to gender. Prevention strategies should be gender-specific and target modifiable predictors in childhood and early adolescence. PMID:26206865

Slow and steady doesn't win the race: How time-to-doctoral-degree impacts the career of physical scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Potvin, Geoff; Tai, Robert

2009-05-01

We report on survey data of 3220 PhD-holding members of the APS and ACS. Using regression analysis, we find that individuals' time-to-doctoral-degree is strongly correlated with their current salary: the model predicts that each year in graduate school corresponds to a significantly lower salary (by more than 3000 per year). This is true even after controlling for job-related factors (field of research, type of position/rank, type of institution, and seniority), demographic factors (age and gender), and measures of scientific merit (grant funding and publication rates). Separately, we also find that time-to-degree is mainly predicted by programmatic factors (such as field of research, amount of required coursework and graduate teaching load) rather than factors associated to students' academic performance, research experiences or research proficiency. These results imply that although time-to-degree is commonly used as a proxy for scientific merit, it is to a great extent out of the control of students.

[The Significance of Work Motivation for Rehabilitation Success].

PubMed

Kessemeier, Franziska; Stöckler, Christiane; Petermann, Franz; Bassler, Markus; Pfeiffer, Wolfgang; Kobelt, Axel

2017-11-28

Aim of this study Apart from the reduction of symptoms and the restoration of working ability, return to work is a long-term goal of medical rehabilitation. The aim of this study is to analyze the influence of work motivation on the outcome of rehabilitation. Methods The data basis consists of N=998 patients at the psychosomatic department of the Oberharz Rehabilitation Center as well as data from insurance accounts. Using multiple linear regression analysis the predictive power of work motivation on rehabilitation outcome as well as different facets of work motivation in their function as predictors are analyzed. Results Only minor statistical relations could be found between work motivation and rehabilitation success when also taking employment status of the previous year and subjective vocational disability into account. A small predictive power can be attributed to work motivation as a factor in rehabilitation success in the sense of a reduction of symptoms. Particular facets of work motivation are suitable to predict rehabilitation success. Patients with a work motivation risk profile differ from patients with a normal work motivation profile as regards their capacity to work in the year following rehabilitation treatment. Conclusion Work motivation represents a relevant construct in rehabilitation success but is strongly influenced by individual factors. During rehabilitation, individual problems which influence work motivation should be taken into account more strongly. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Subjective quality of life in outpatients with schizophrenia in Hong Kong and Beijing: relationship to socio-demographic and clinical factors.

PubMed

Xiang, Yu-Tao; Weng, Yong-Zhen; Leung, Chi-Ming; Tang, Wai-Kwong; Ungvari, Gabor S

2008-02-01

This study compared the subjective quality of life (SQOL) in schizophrenia patients living with their families in Hong Kong (HK) and Beijing (BJ) and explored the relationship between SQOL and basic socio-demographic and clinical factors. Two hundred and sixty-four clinically stable outpatients with schizophrenia were randomly selected in HK and 258 counterparts matched according to age, sex, age at onset, and length of illness in BJ. SQOL and psychiatric status were assessed with standard rating instruments. There was no significant difference in any of SQOL domains between the two cohorts after controlling for potentially confounding variables. Positive, depressive and anxiety symptoms and drug-induced extrapyramidal side effects (EPS) were all significantly correlated with SQOL. Multiple regression analysis revealed that only depressive symptoms predicted all SQOL domains in both groups. Having removed depressive symptoms from the model, positive symptoms predicted all domains, anxiety predicted all but social domains, use of benzodiazepines (BZD) predicted all but physical domains, EPS predicted physical domain, and history of suicide predicted social domain in HK; anxiety predicted all domains, positive symptoms predicted all but physical domains, EPS, use of BZD and history of suicide all predicted physical domains, and length of illness predicted environmental domain in BJ. Despite considerable differences between the two sites in terms of health care delivery and the economic conditions of the subjects, SQOL did not differ between HK and BJ. The conclusion is in line with previous studies that suggested that patients' SQOL was independent of their living standard as long as it reached a certain minimum level. SQOL was more strongly related to the severity of depressive symptoms and had weak association with socio-demographic factors.

European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Migliavacca, M.; Cremonese, E.; Colombo, R.; Busetto, L.; Galvagno, M.; Ganis, L.; Meroni, M.; Pari, E.; Rossini, M.; Siniscalco, C.; Morra di Cella, U.

2008-09-01

Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations, especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch ( Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved, using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data, obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique, based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs), that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (BGS) with a mean RMSE of 4 days, while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (LGS) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover, we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors, while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally, we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude.

European larch phenology in the Alps: can we grasp the role of ecological factors by combining field observations and inverse modelling?

PubMed

Migliavacca, M; Cremonese, E; Colombo, R; Busetto, L; Galvagno, M; Ganis, L; Meroni, M; Pari, E; Rossini, M; Siniscalco, C; Morra di Cella, U

2008-09-01

Vegetation phenology is strongly influenced by climatic factors. Climate changes may cause phenological variations, especially in the Alps which are considered to be extremely vulnerable to global warming. The main goal of our study is to analyze European larch (Larix decidua Mill.) phenology in alpine environments and the role of the ecological factors involved, using an integrated approach based on accurate field observations and modelling techniques. We present 2 years of field-collected larch phenological data, obtained following a specifically designed observation protocol. We observed that both spring and autumn larch phenology is strongly influenced by altitude. We propose an approach for the optimization of a spring warming model (SW) and the growing season index model (GSI) consisting of a model inversion technique, based on simulated look-up tables (LUTs), that provides robust parameter estimates. The optimized models showed excellent agreement between modelled and observed data: the SW model predicts the beginning of the growing season (B(GS)) with a mean RMSE of 4 days, while GSI gives a prediction of the growing season length (L(GS)) with a RMSE of 5 days. Moreover, we showed that the original GSI parameters led to consistent errors, while the optimized ones significantly increased model accuracy. Finally, we used GSI to investigate interactions of ecological factors during springtime development and autumn senescence. We found that temperature is the most effective factor during spring recovery while photoperiod plays an important role during autumn senescence: photoperiod shows a contrasting effect with altitude decreasing its influence with increasing altitude.

Reconsidering the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire: time for a multidimensional framework?

PubMed

Magnussen, Liv Heide; Lygren, Hildegunn; Strand, Liv Inger; Hagen, Eli Molde; Breivik, Kyrre

2015-02-15

Cross-sectional design. To explore (1) the factor structure of the Roland-Morris Disability Questionnaire (RMDQ), (2) whether there is a dominant factor, and (3) whether the potential factors are unique predictors of other aspects related to back pain. The RMDQ is one of the most recommended back-specific questionnaires assessing disability. The RMDQ is scored as a unidimensional scale summarizing answers to all 24 questions (Yes/No) regarding daily life functioning. However, there are indications that the scale is multidimensional. Patients (n = 457; age, 18-60 yr) with 8 to 12 weeks of back pain filled in questionnaires assessing subjective health complaints, emotional distress, instrumental and emotion-focused coping, and fear voidance behavior at baseline. A total of 371 patients (81.7%) filled in the RMDQ. Exploratory factor analysis was used to examine the factor structure of RMDQ items. Multiple regression analyses were used to assess whether the derived factors predicted relevant problems in back pain differently. Exploratory factor analysis showed indices of model fit for a 3-factor solution after removing 2 items because of low prevalence (19 and 24). Two items were removed because of cross-loadings and low loadings (2 and 22). No support for a dominant factor was found as the 3 factors were only moderately correlated (r = 0.34-0.40), and the ratio between the first and second eigenvalue was 2.6, not supporting essential unidimensionality. "Symptoms" were the factor that most strongly predicted subjective health complaints, whereas "avoidance of activity and participation" predicted fear avoidance behavior, instrumental and emotional coping. "Limitation in daily activities" did not predict any of these variables. The main findings of our study are that the RMDQ consists of 3 independent factors, and not 1 dominant factor as suggested previously. We think the time is now ripe to start treating and scoring the RMDQ as a multidimensional scale. N/A.

Chaos and the (un)predictability of evolution in a changing environment

PubMed Central

Rego-Costa, Artur; Débarre, Florence; Chevin, Luis-Miguel

2018-01-01

Among the factors that may reduce the predictability of evolution, chaos, characterized by a strong dependence on initial conditions, has received much less attention than randomness due to genetic drift or environmental stochasticity. It was recently shown that chaos in phenotypic evolution arises commonly under frequency-dependent selection caused by competitive interactions mediated by many traits. This result has been used to argue that chaos should often make evolutionary dynamics unpredictable. However, populations also evolve largely in response to external changing environments, and such environmental forcing is likely to influence the outcome of evolution in systems prone to chaos. We investigate how a changing environment causing oscillations of an optimal phenotype interacts with the internal dynamics of an eco-evolutionary system that would be chaotic in a constant environment. We show that strong environmental forcing can improve the predictability of evolution, by reducing the probability of chaos arising, and by dampening the magnitude of chaotic oscillations. In contrast, weak forcing can increase the probability of chaos, but it also causes evolutionary trajectories to track the environment more closely. Overall, our results indicate that, although chaos may occur in evolution, it does not necessarily undermine its predictability. PMID:29235104

Clinical trial: factors associated with freedom from relapse of heartburn in patients with healed reflux oesophagitis--results from the maintenance phase of the EXPO study.

PubMed

Labenz, J; Armstrong, D; Zetterstrand, S; Eklund, S; Leodolter, A

2009-06-01

Ability to predict freedom from heartburn relapse during maintenance therapy for healed reflux oesophagitis may facilitate optimal treatment choices for individual patients. To determine factors predicting freedom from heartburn relapse during maintenance proton pump inhibitor therapy in patients with healed reflux oesophagitis. This post-hoc analysis used data from the maintenance phase of the EXPO study (AstraZeneca study code: SH-NEG-0008); 2766 patients with healed reflux oesophagitis and resolved heartburn received once-daily esomeprazole 20 mg or pantoprazole 20 mg for 6 months. Multiple logistic regression analysis determined factors associated with freedom from heartburn relapse. Heartburn relapse rates were lower with esomeprazole than pantoprazole in all subgroups analysed. Esomeprazole treatment was the factor most strongly associated with freedom from heartburn relapse (odds ratio 2.08; P < 0.0001). Other factors significantly associated with freedom from heartburn relapse were Helicobacter pylori infection, greater age, non-obesity, absence of epigastric pain at baseline, pre-treatment nonsevere heartburn and GERD symptom duration < or =5 years. Several factors predict freedom from heartburn relapse during maintenance proton pump inhibitor therapy for healed reflux oesophagitis, the strongest being choice of proton pump inhibitor. These findings outline the importance of optimizing acid control and identifying predictors of relapse for effective long-term symptom management in reflux oesophagitis patients.

Early risk factors for criminal offending in schizophrenia: a 35-year longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Eriksson, Asa; Romelsjö, Anders; Stenbacka, Marlene; Tengström, Anders

2011-09-01

Recent evidence suggests that factors predicting offending among individuals with no mental disorder may also predict offending among individuals with schizophrenia. The aims of the study were (1) to explore the prevalence of risk factors for criminal offending reported at age 18 among males later diagnosed with schizophrenia, (2) to explore the associations between risk factors reported at age 18 and lifetime criminal offending, (3) to predict lifetime serious violent offending based on risk factors reported at age 18, and (4) to compare the findings with those in males with no later diagnosis of schizophrenia. The study was a prospective, longitudinal study of a birth cohort followed up through registers after 35 years. The cohort consisted of 49,398 males conscripted into the Swedish Army in 1969-1970, of whom 377 were later diagnosed with schizophrenia. Among the subjects later diagnosed with schizophrenia, strong associations were found between four of the items reported at age 18 and lifetime criminal offending: (1) low marks for conduct in school, (2) contact with the police or child care authorities, (3) crowded living conditions, and (4) arrest for public drinking. Three of these four risk factors were found to double the risk of offending among males with no later diagnosis of schizophrenia. Criminality in individuals with schizophrenia may at least partly be understood as a phenomenon similar to criminality in individuals in the general population.

Horizontal axis wind turbine post stall airfoil characteristics synthesization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tangler, James L.; Ostowari, Cyrus

1995-01-01

Blade-element/momentum performance prediction codes are routinely used for wind turbine design and analysis. A weakness of these codes is their inability to consistently predict peak power upon which the machine structural design and cost are strongly dependent. The purpose of this study was to compare post-stall airfoil characteristics synthesization theory to a systematically acquired wind tunnel data set in which the effects of aspect ratio, airfoil thickness, and Reynolds number were investigated. The results of this comparison identified discrepancies between current theory and the wind tunnel data which could not be resolved. Other factors not previously investigated may account for these discrepancies and have a significant effect on peak power prediction.

Metabolomics in diabetes, a review.

PubMed

Pallares-Méndez, Rigoberto; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos A; Cruz-Bautista, Ivette; Del Bosque-Plata, Laura

2016-01-01

Metabolomics is a promising approach for the identification of chemical compounds that serve for early detection, diagnosis, prediction of therapeutic response and prognosis of disease. Moreover, metabolomics has shown to increase the diagnostic threshold and prediction of type 2 diabetes. Evidence suggests that branched-chain amino acids, acylcarnitines and aromatic amino acids may play an early role on insulin resistance, exposing defects on amino acid metabolism, β-oxidation, and tricarboxylic acid cycle. This review aims to provide a panoramic view of the metabolic shifts that antecede or follow type 2 diabetes. Key messages BCAAs, AAAs and acylcarnitines are strongly associated with early insulin resistance. Diabetes risk prediction has been improved when adding metabolomic markers of dysglycemia to standard clinical and biochemical factors.

Ultra-strong coupling in a transmon circuit architecture

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bosman, Sal; Gely, Mario; Singh, Vibhor; Bruno, Alessandro; Steele, Gary

New unexplored phenomena are predicted in cQED for the ultra-strong coupling (USC) regime and beyond. Here, we explore two strategies to increase the coupling between a transmon qubit and a microwave resonator. In the first approach, we increase the impedance of the resonator, enhancing it's voltage zero-point fluctuations, and measure a vacuum Rabi splitting of 916 MHz. In a second approach, we create a transmon qubit by making a superconducting island suspended above the center conductor of the resonator and which is shorted to ground by two Josephson junctions. Doing so, we maximize the dipole moment of the qubit and observe a vacuum Rabi splitting of 1.2 GHz with a qubit linewidth of 1 MHz. This first transmon qubit in the USC regime improves the coherence time by a factor of 100 compared to other systems in the USC limit. Finally we predict that by combining both approaches, a coupling of ~ 3 . 6 GHz is possible, reaching close to the deep strong coupling limit. The work was supported by the Dutch science foundation NWO/FOM.

Using Community College Prior Academic Performance to Predict Re-Enrollment at a Four-Year Online University

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nadasen, Denise; List, Alexandra

2016-01-01

Students' re-enrollment in the subsequent semester after their first semester at a four-year institution is a strong predictor of retention and graduation. This is especially true for students who transfer from a community college to a four-year institution because of the many external or non-academic factors influencing a student's decision to…

The Relative Predictive Contribution and Causal Role of Phoneme Awareness, Rhyme Awareness and Verbal Short-Term Memory in Reading Skills: A Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Melby-Lervag, Monica

2012-01-01

The acknowledgement that educational achievement is highly dependent on successful reading development, has led to extensive research on its underlying factors. Evidence clearly suggests that the relation between reading skills, phoneme awareness, rhyme awareness, and verbal short-term memory is more than a mere association. A strong argument has…

Battered Women's Perceptions of Risk Versus Risk Factors and Instruments in Predicting Repeat Reassault

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Heckert, D. Alex; Gondolf, Edward W.

2004-01-01

This study partially replicates and expands on a previous study that showed women's perceptions of risk to be a strong predictor of reassault among batterers. The current study employed a larger and multisite sample, a longer follow-up period of 15 months, and multiple outcomes including "repeated reassault" (n = 499). According to the multinomial…

PREDICTIVE FACTORS OF SURGICAL OUTCOMES IN VITRECTOMY FOR MYOPIC TRACTION MACULOPATHY.

PubMed

Hattori, Kyoko; Kataoka, Keiko; Takeuchi, Jun; Ito, Yasuki; Terasaki, Hiroko

2017-11-07

To assess predictive factors and surgical outcomes for myopic traction maculopathy. This retrospective observational case study enrolled 73 patients who underwent vitrectomy for myopic traction maculopathy. The 79 eyes obtained from our study sample were divided into 4 types: retinoschisis, lamellar macular hole (lamellar MH), foveal retinal detachment (FRD), and FRD + lamellar MH, or into 2 types according to the presence of FRD preoperatively. Dependent variables of interest were age, sex, pre- and postoperative best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at 6 months, and axial length. All the four types showed moderately strong-to-strong positive correlations with pre- and postoperative BCVA (retinochisisi: r = 0.61; lamellar MH: r = 0.62; FRD: r = 0.51; FRD + lamellar MH; r = 0.83). Preoperative BCVA was associated with postoperative BCVA (P < 0.0001), but age, axial length, and the types of preoperative foveal status were not. Eyes with FRD had significantly worse pre- and postoperative BCVA than eyes without FRD (P = 0.036 and P = 0.046, respectively). Postoperative full-thickness macular holes developed in 5.1% of cases and in all types but retinoschisis. Preoperative visual acuity and the presence of FRD should be considered for surgical indication of myopic traction maculopathy.

A method for fast safety screening of explosives in terms of crystal packing and molecular stability.

PubMed

Hu, Xiaohua; Chen, Nana; Li, Weichen

2016-07-01

Safety prediction is crucial to the molecular design or the material design of explosives, and the predictions based on any single factor alone will cause much inaccuracy, leading to a desire for a method on multi-bases. The presented proposes an improved method for fast screening explosive safety by combining a crystal packing factor and a molecular one, that is, steric hindrance against shear slide in crystal and molecular stability, denoted by intermolecular friction symbol (IFS) and bond dissociation energy (BDE) of trigger linkage respectively. Employing this BDE-IFS combined method, we understand the impact sensitivities of 24 existing explosives, and predict those of two energetic-energetic cocrystals of the observed CL-20/BTF and the supposed HMX/TATB. As a result, a better understanding is implemented by the combined method relative to molecular stability alone, verifying its improvement of more accurate predictions and the feasibility of IFS to graphically reflect molecular stacking in crystals. Also, this work verifies that the explosive safety is strongly related with its crystal stacking, which determines steric hindrance and influences shear slide.

Predicting Changes in Depressive Symptoms from Pregnancy to Postpartum: The Role of Brooding Rumination and Negative Inferential Styles

PubMed Central

Barnum, Sarah E.; Woody, Mary L.; Gibb, Brandon E.

2014-01-01

The current study examined the role of cognitive factors in the development and maintenance of depressive symptoms from pregnancy into the postpartum period. One hundred and one women were assessed for levels of rumination (brooding and reflection), negative inferential styles, and depressive symptoms in their third trimester of pregnancy and depressive symptom levels again at four and eight weeks postpartum. We found that, although none of the three cognitive variables predicted women’s initial depressive reactions following childbirth (from pregnancy to one month postpartum), brooding rumination and negative inferential styles predicted longer-term depressive symptom changes (from pregnancy to two months postpartum). However, the predictive validity of women’s negative inferential styles was limited to women already exhibiting relatively high depressive symptom levels during pregnancy, suggesting that it was more strongly related to the maintenance of depressive symptoms into the postpartum period rather than increases in depressive symptoms following childbirth. Modifying cognitive risk factors, therefore, may be an important focus of intervention for depression during pregnancy. PMID:25401383

Predicting urinary incontinence in women in later life: A systematic review.

PubMed

Troko, Joy; Bach, Fiona; Toozs-Hobson, Philip

2016-12-01

Urinary incontinence (UI) affects 10-40% of the population and treatment costs in the UK are estimated to be £233 million per annum. A systematic review of online medical databases between July 1974 and 2016 was conducted to identify studies that had investigated risk and prediction strategies of UI in later life. Eighteen prospective longitudinal studies fulfilled the search criteria. These were analysed systematically (as per the PRISMA checklist) and bias risk through study design was minimised where possible upon data analysis. One paper proposed a predictive assessment tool called the 'continence index'. It was derived following secondary analysis of a cohort study and its predictive threshold had suboptimal sensitivity (79%) and specificity (65%) rates. Seventeen studies identified multiple strong risk factors for UI but despite a large selection of papers on the topic, no robust risk assessment tool prospectively identified patients at risk of UI in later life. Thus more research in this field is required. Clinicians should be aware particularly of modifiable UI risk factors to help reduce the clinical burden of UI in the long term. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

Application and analysis of debris-flow early warning system in Wenchuan earthquake-affected area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, D. L.; Zhang, S. J.; Yang, H. J.; Zhao, L. Q.; Jiang, Y. H.; Tang, D.; Leng, X. P.

2016-02-01

The activities of debris flow (DF) in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area significantly increased after the earthquake on 12 May 2008. The safety of the lives and property of local people is threatened by DFs. A physics-based early warning system (EWS) for DF forecasting was developed and applied in this earthquake area. This paper introduces an application of the system in the Wenchuan earthquake-affected area and analyzes the prediction results via a comparison to the DF events triggered by the strong rainfall events reported by the local government. The prediction accuracy and efficiency was first compared with a contribution-factor-based system currently used by the weather bureau of Sichuan province. The storm on 17 August 2012 was used as a case study for this comparison. The comparison shows that the false negative rate and false positive rate of the new system is, respectively, 19 and 21 % lower than the system based on the contribution factors. Consequently, the prediction accuracy is obviously higher than the system based on the contribution factors with a higher operational efficiency. On the invitation of the weather bureau of Sichuan province, the authors upgraded their prediction system of DF by using this new system before the monsoon of Wenchuan earthquake-affected area in 2013. Two prediction cases on 9 July 2013 and 10 July 2014 were chosen to further demonstrate that the new EWS has high stability, efficiency, and prediction accuracy.

Susceptibility (risk and protective) factors for in-patient violence and self-harm: prospective study of structured professional judgement instruments START and SAPROF, DUNDRUM-3 and DUNDRUM-4 in forensic mental health services

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background The START and SAPROF are newly developed fourth generation structured professional judgement instruments assessing strengths and protective factors. The DUNDRUM-3 and DUNDRUM-4 also measure positive factors, programme completion and recovery in forensic settings. Methods We compared these instruments with other validated risk instruments (HCR-20, S-RAMM), a measure of psychopathology (PANSS) and global function (GAF). We prospectively tested whether any of these instruments predict violence or self harm in a secure hospital setting (n = 98) and whether they had true protective effects, interacting with and off-setting risk measures. Results SAPROF and START-strengths had strong inverse (negative) correlations with the HCR-20 and S-RAMM. SAPROF correlated strongly with GAF (r = 0.745). In the prospective in-patient study, SAPROF predicted absence of violence, AUC = 0.847 and absence of self-harm AUC = 0.766. START-strengths predicted absence of violence AUC = 0.776, but did not predict absence of self-harm AUC = 0.644. The DUNDRUM-3 programme completion and DUNDRUM-4 recovery scales also predicted in-patient violence (AUC 0.832 and 0.728 respectively), and both predicted in-patient self-harm (AUC 0.750 and 0.713 respectively). When adjusted for the HCR-20 total score however, SAPROF, START-S, DUNDRUM-3 and DUNDRUM-4 scores were not significantly different for those who were violent or for those who self harmed. The SAPROF had a significant interactive effect with the HCR-dynamic score. Item to outcome studies often showed a range of strengths of association with outcomes, which may be specific to the in-patient setting and patient group studied. Conclusions The START and SAPROF, DUNDRUM-3 and DUNDRUM-4 can be used to assess both reduced and increased risk of violence and self-harm in mentally ill in-patients in a secure setting. They were not consistently better than the GAF, HCR-20, S-RAMM, or PANSS when predicting adverse events. Only the SAPROF had an interactive effect with the HCR-20 risk assessment indicating a true protective effect but as structured professional judgement instruments all have additional content (items) complementary to existing risk assessments, useful for planning treatment and risk management. PMID:23890106

Derivation and Validation of a Clostridium difficile Infection Recurrence Prediction Rule in a National Cohort of Veterans.

PubMed

Reveles, Kelly R; Mortensen, Eric M; Koeller, Jim M; Lawson, Kenneth A; Pugh, Mary Jo V; Rumbellow, Sarah A; Argamany, Jacqueline R; Frei, Christopher R

2018-03-01

Prior studies have identified risk factors for recurrent Clostridium difficile infection (CDI), but few studies have integrated these factors into a clinical prediction rule that can aid clinical decision-making. The objectives of this study were to derive and validate a CDI recurrence prediction rule to identify patients at risk for first recurrence in a national cohort of veterans. Retrospective cohort study. Veterans Affairs Informatics and Computing Infrastructure. A total of 22,615 adult Veterans Health Administration beneficiaries with first-episode CDI between October 1, 2002, and September 30, 2014; of these patients, 7538 were assigned to the derivation cohort and 15,077 to the validation cohort. A 60-day CDI recurrence prediction rule was created in a derivation cohort using backward logistic regression. Those variables significant at p<0.01 were assigned an integer score proportional to the regression coefficient. The model was then validated in the derivation cohort and a separate validation cohort. Patients were then split into three risk categories, and rates of recurrence were described for each category. The CDI recurrence prediction rule included the following predictor variables with their respective point values: prior third- and fourth-generation cephalosporins (1 point), prior proton pump inhibitors (1 point), prior antidiarrheals (1 point), nonsevere CDI (2 points), and community-onset CDI (3 points). In the derivation cohort, the 60-day CDI recurrence risk for each score ranged from 7.5% (0 points) to 57.9% (8 points). The risk score was strongly correlated with recurrence (R 2  = 0.94). Patients were split into low-risk (0-2 points), medium-risk (3-5 points), and high-risk (6-8 points) classes and had the following recurrence rates: 8.9%, 20.2%, and 35.0%, respectively. Findings were similar in the validation cohort. Several CDI and patient-specific factors were independently associated with 60-day CDI recurrence risk. When integrated into a clinical prediction rule, higher risk scores and risk classes were strongly correlated with CDI recurrence. This clinical prediction rule can be used by providers to identify patients at high risk for CDI recurrence and help guide preventive strategy decisions, while accounting for clinical judgment. © 2018 Pharmacotherapy Publications, Inc.

Pre-operative Predictive Factors of Post-operative Pain in Patients With Hip or Knee Arthroplasty: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Hernández, Clara; Díaz-Heredia, Jorge; Berraquero, María Luisa; Crespo, Pablo; Loza, Estíbaliz; Ruiz Ibán, Miguel Ángel

2015-01-01

To analyze pre-surgical predictive factors of post-surgical pain in patients undergoing hip or knee arthoplasty. A systematic literature review was performed. We defined a sensitive strategy on Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library up to May 2013. The inclusion criteria were: patients undertaking knee and/or hip arthroplasty, adults with moderate or severe pain (≥4 on a Visual Analog Scale) in whom predictive factors of post-surgical pain were evaluated before surgery. Systematic reviews, meta-analyses, controlled trials and observational studies were selected. We excluded animals and basic science articles, reviews of prosthesis, prosthesis due to fractures, patients with rheumatic diseases or studies with mixed population in which disaggregated data was not possible to obtain. A total 37 articles of moderate quality were selected. The articles included representative patients undergoing a knee or hip arthroplasty in our country; most of them were aged 60 years or above, with osteoarthritis, and with a high rate of obesity and comorbidities. We found great variability regarding the type of studies and predictive factors. There was a strong association between post-surgical pain and the following pre-surgical factors: female gender, low socio-economic status, higher pain, comorbidities, low back pain, poor functional status, and psychological factors (depression, anxiety or catastrophic pain). There are pre-surgical factors that might influence post-surgical pain in patients undergoing a knee or hip arthroplasty. Therefore, they should be taken into account when considering an arthroplasty. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. y Sociedad Española de Reumatología y Colegio Mexicano de Reumatología. All rights reserved.

Destructions of {sup 7}Be and {sup 7}Li in Big Bang nucleosynthesis through reactions with exotic long-lived sub-strongly interacting massive particles

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kusakabe, Motohiko; Kawasaki, Masahiro; Institute for Cosmic Ray Research, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8582, Japan and Institute for the Physics and Mathematics of the Universe, University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Chiba 277-8582

An observed plateau abundance of {sup 7}Li in metal-poor halo stars indicates its primordial origin. The {sup 7}Li abundances are about a factor of three smaller than that predicted in standard big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) model. In addition, some of the stars possibly contain {sup 6}Li in abundances larger than standard BBN prediction. Particle models sometimes include heavy longlived colored particles which are confined in exotic strongly interacting massive particles (SIMPs). We have found reactions which destroy {sup 7}Be and {sup 7}Li during BBN in the scenario of BBN affected by a long-lived sub-strongly interactingmassive particle (sub-SIMP, X). The reactionsmore » are non radiative X captures of {sup 7}Be and {sup 7}Li which can operate if the X particle interacts with nuclei strongly enough to drive {sup 7}Be destruction but not strongly enough to form a bound state with {sup 4}He of relative angular momentum L = 1. The processes can be a cause of the {sup 7}Li problem. In this paper we suggest new possible reactions for {sup 6}Li production. Especially, a {sup 6}Li production through the deuteron capture of {sup 4}He bound to X can operate in the parameter region solving the {sup 7}Li problem.« less

Biophysically inspired model for functionalized nanocarrier adhesion to cell surface: roles of protein expression and mechanical factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramakrishnan, N.; Tourdot, Richard W.; Eckmann, David M.; Ayyaswamy, Portonovo S.; Muzykantov, Vladimir R.; Radhakrishnan, Ravi

2016-06-01

In order to achieve selective targeting of affinity-ligand coated nanoparticles to the target tissue, it is essential to understand the key mechanisms that govern their capture by the target cell. Next-generation pharmacokinetic (PK) models that systematically account for proteomic and mechanical factors can accelerate the design, validation and translation of targeted nanocarriers (NCs) in the clinic. Towards this objective, we have developed a computational model to delineate the roles played by target protein expression and mechanical factors of the target cell membrane in determining the avidity of functionalized NCs to live cells. Model results show quantitative agreement with in vivo experiments when specific and non-specific contributions to NC binding are taken into account. The specific contributions are accounted for through extensive simulations of multivalent receptor-ligand interactions, membrane mechanics and entropic factors such as membrane undulations and receptor translation. The computed NC avidity is strongly dependent on ligand density, receptor expression, bending mechanics of the target cell membrane, as well as entropic factors associated with the membrane and the receptor motion. Our computational model can predict the in vivo targeting levels of the intracellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM1)-coated NCs targeted to the lung, heart, kidney, liver and spleen of mouse, when the contributions due to endothelial capture are accounted for. The effect of other cells (such as monocytes, etc.) do not improve the model predictions at steady state. We demonstrate the predictive utility of our model by predicting partitioning coefficients of functionalized NCs in mice and human tissues and report the statistical accuracy of our model predictions under different scenarios.

Patterns and multi-scale drivers of phytoplankton species richness in temperate peri-urban lakes.

PubMed

Catherine, Arnaud; Selma, Maloufi; Mouillot, David; Troussellier, Marc; Bernard, Cécile

2016-07-15

Local species richness (SR) is a key characteristic affecting ecosystem functioning. Yet, the mechanisms regulating phytoplankton diversity in freshwater ecosystems are not fully understood, especially in peri-urban environments where anthropogenic pressures strongly impact the quality of aquatic ecosystems. To address this issue, we sampled the phytoplankton communities of 50 lakes in the Paris area (France) characterized by a large gradient of physico-chemical and catchment-scale characteristics. We used large phytoplankton datasets to describe phytoplankton diversity patterns and applied a machine-learning algorithm to test the degree to which species richness patterns are potentially controlled by environmental factors. Selected environmental factors were studied at two scales: the lake-scale (e.g. nutrients concentrations, water temperature, lake depth) and the catchment-scale (e.g. catchment, landscape and climate variables). Then, we used a variance partitioning approach to evaluate the interaction between lake-scale and catchment-scale variables in explaining local species richness. Finally, we analysed the residuals of predictive models to identify potential vectors of improvement of phytoplankton species richness predictive models. Lake-scale and catchment-scale drivers provided similar predictive accuracy of local species richness (R(2)=0.458 and 0.424, respectively). Both models suggested that seasonal temperature variations and nutrient supply strongly modulate local species richness. Integrating lake- and catchment-scale predictors in a single predictive model did not provide increased predictive accuracy; therefore suggesting that the catchment-scale model probably explains observed species richness variations through the impact of catchment-scale variables on in-lake water quality characteristics. Models based on catchment characteristics, which include simple and easy to obtain variables, provide a meaningful way of predicting phytoplankton species richness in temperate lakes. This approach may prove useful and cost-effective for the management and conservation of aquatic ecosystems. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Identification of biomarkers in human head and neck tumor cell lines that predict for in vitro sensitivity to gefitinib.

PubMed

Hickinson, D Mark; Marshall, Gayle B; Beran, Garry J; Varella-Garcia, Marileila; Mills, Elizabeth A; South, Marie C; Cassidy, Andrew M; Acheson, Kerry L; McWalter, Gael; McCormack, Rose M; Bunn, Paul A; French, Tim; Graham, Alex; Holloway, Brian R; Hirsch, Fred R; Speake, Georgina

2009-06-01

Potential biomarkers were identified for in vitro sensitivity to the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) tyrosine kinase inhibitor gefitinib in head and neck cancer. Gefitinib sensitivity was determined in cell lines, followed by transcript profiling coupled with a novel pathway analysis approach. Eleven cell lines were highly sensitive to gefitinib (inhibitor concentration required to give 50% growth inhibition [GI(50)] < 1 microM), three had intermediate sensitivity (GI(50) 1-7 microM), and six were resistant (GI(50) > 7 microM); an exploratory principal component analysis revealed a separation between the genomic profiles of sensitive and resistant cell lines. Subsequently, a hypothesis-driven analysis of Affymetrix data (Affymetrix, Inc., Santa Clara, CA, USA) revealed higher mRNA levels for E-cadherin (CDH1); transforming growth factor, alpha (TGF-alpha); amphiregulin (AREG); FLJ22662; EGFR; p21-activated kinase 6 (PAK6); glutathione S-transferase Pi (GSTP1); and ATP-binding cassette, subfamily C, member 5 (ABCC5) in sensitive versus resistant cell lines. A hypothesis-free analysis identified 46 gene transcripts that were strongly differentiated, seven of which had a known association with EGFR and head and neck cancer (human EGF receptor 3 [HER3], TGF-alpha, CDH1, EGFR, keratin 16 [KRT16], fibroblast growth factor 2 [FGF2], and cortactin [CTTN]). Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and enzyme-linked immunoabsorbant assay analysis confirmed Affymetrix data, and EGFR gene mutation, amplification, and genomic gain correlated strongly with gefitinib sensitivity. We identified biomarkers that predict for in vitro responsiveness to gefitinib, seven of which have known association with EGFR and head and neck cancer. These in vitro predictive biomarkers may have potential utility in the clinic and warrant further investigation.

Anti-Tumor Activity of a Novel HS-Mimetic-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Binding Small Molecule

PubMed Central

Sugahara, Kazuyuki; Thimmaiah, Kuntebommanahalli N.; Bid, Hemant K.; Houghton, Peter J.; Rangappa, Kanchugarakoppal S.

2012-01-01

The angiogenic process is controlled by variety of factors of which the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) pathway plays a major role. A series of heparan sulfate mimetic small molecules targeting VEGF/VEGFR pathway has been synthesized. Among them, compound 8 (2-butyl-5-chloro-3-(4-nitro-benzyl)-3H-imidazole-4-carbaldehyde) was identified as a significant binding molecule for the heparin-binding domain of VEGF, determined by high-throughput-surface plasmon resonance assay. The data predicted strong binding of compound 8 with VEGF which may prevent the binding of VEGF to its receptor. We compared the structure of compound 8 with heparan sulfate (HS), which have in common the functional ionic groups such as sulfate, nitro and carbaldehyde that can be located in similar positions of the disaccharide structure of HS. Molecular docking studies predicted that compound 8 binds at the heparin binding domain of VEGF through strong hydrogen bonding with Lys-30 and Gln-20 amino acid residues, and consistent with the prediction, compound 8 inhibited binding of VEGF to immobilized heparin. In vitro studies showed that compound 8 inhibits the VEGF-induced proliferation migration and tube formation of mouse vascular endothelial cells, and finally the invasion of a murine osteosarcoma cell line (LM8G7) which secrets high levels of VEGF. In vivo, these effects produce significant decrease of tumor burden in an experimental model of liver metastasis. Collectively, these data indicate that compound 8 may prevent tumor growth through a direct effect on tumor cell proliferation and by inhibition of endothelial cell migration and angiogenesis mediated by VEGF. In conclusion, compound 8 may normalize the tumor vasculature and microenvironment in tumors probably by inhibiting the binding of VEGF to its receptor. PMID:22916091

Neonatal Candidiasis: Epidemiology, Risk Factors, and Clinical Judgment

PubMed Central

Benjamin, Daniel K.; Stoll, Barbara J.; Gantz, Marie G.; Walsh, Michele C.; Sanchez, Pablo J.; Das, Abhik; Shankaran, Seetha; Higgins, Rosemary D.; Auten, Kathy J.; Miller, Nancy A.; Walsh, Thomas J.; Laptook, Abbot R.; Carlo, Waldemar A.; Kennedy, Kathleen A.; Finer, Neil N.; Duara, Shahnaz; Schibler, Kurt; Chapman, Rachel L.; Van Meurs, Krisa P.; Frantz, Ivan D.; Phelps, Dale L.; Poindexter, Brenda B.; Bell, Edward F.; O’Shea, T. Michael; Watterberg, Kristi L.; Goldberg, Ronald N.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE Invasive candidiasis is a leading cause of infection-related morbidity and mortality in extremely low-birth-weight (<1000 g) infants. We quantify risk factors predicting infection in high-risk premature infants and compare clinical judgment with a prediction model of invasive candidiasis. METHODS The study involved a prospective observational cohort of infants <1000 g birth weight at 19 centers of the NICHD Neonatal Research Network. At each sepsis evaluation, clinical information was recorded, cultures obtained, and clinicians prospectively recorded their estimate of the probability of invasive candidiasis. Two models were generated with invasive candidiasis as their outcome: 1) potentially modifiable risk factors and 2) a clinical model at time of blood culture to predict candidiasis. RESULTS Invasive candidiasis occurred in 137/1515 (9.0%) infants and was documented by positive culture from ≥ 1 of these sources: blood (n=96), cerebrospinal fluid (n=9), urine obtained by catheterization (n=52), or other sterile body fluid (n=10). Mortality was not different from infants who had positive blood culture compared to those with isolated positive urine culture. Incidence varied from 2–28% at the 13 centers enrolling ≥ 50 infants. Potentially modifiable risk factors (model 1) included central catheter, broad-spectrum antibiotics (e.g., third-generation cephalosporins), intravenous lipid emulsion, endotracheal tube, and antenatal antibiotics. The clinical prediction model (model 2) had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.79, and was superior to clinician judgment (0.70) in predicting subsequent invasive candidiasis. Performance of clinical judgment did not vary significantly with level of training. CONCLUSION Prior antibiotics, presence of a central catheter, endotracheal tube, and center were strongly associated with invasive candidiasis. Modeling was more accurate in predicting invasive candidiasis than clinical judgment. PMID:20876174

EMMPRIN co-expressed with matrix metalloproteinases predicts poor prognosis in patients with osteosarcoma.

PubMed

Futamura, Naohisa; Nishida, Yoshihiro; Urakawa, Hiroshi; Kozawa, Eiji; Ikuta, Kunihiro; Hamada, Shunsuke; Ishiguro, Naoki

2014-06-01

Several studies have focused on the relationships between the expression of extracellular matrix metalloproteinase inducer (EMMPRIN) and the prognosis of patients with malignant tumors. However, few of these have investigated the expression of EMMPRIN in osteosarcoma. We examined expression levels of EMMPRIN immunohistochemically in 53 cases of high-grade osteosarcoma of the extremities and analyzed the correlation of its expression with patient prognosis. The correlation between matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and EMMPRIN expression and the prognostic value of co-expression were also analyzed. Staining positivity for EMMPRIN was negative in 7 cases, low in 17, moderate in 19, and strong in 10. The overall and disease-free survivals (OS and DFS) in patients with higher EMMPRIN expression (strong-moderate) were significantly lower than those in the lower (weak-negative) group (0.037 and 0.024, respectively). In multivariate analysis, age (P=0.004), location (P=0.046), and EMMPRIN expression (P=0.038) were significant prognostic factors for overall survival. EMMPRIN expression (P=0.024) was also a significant prognostic factor for disease-free survival. Co-expression analyses of EMMPRIN and MMPs revealed that strong co-expression of EMMPRIN and membrane-type 1 (MT1)-MMP had a poor prognostic value (P=0.056 for DFS, P=0.006 for OS). EMMPRIN expression and co-expression with MMPs well predict the prognosis of patients with extremity osteosarcoma, making EMMPRIN a possible therapeutic target in these patients.

A model for predicting field-directed particle transport in the magnetofection process.

PubMed

Furlani, Edward P; Xue, Xiaozheng

2012-05-01

To analyze the magnetofection process in which magnetic carrier particles with surface-bound gene vectors are attracted to target cells for transfection using an external magnetic field and to obtain a fundamental understanding of the impact of key factors such as particle size and field strength on the gene delivery process. A numerical model is used to study the field-directed transport of the carrier particle-gene vector complex to target cells in a conventional multiwell culture plate system. The model predicts the transport dynamics and the distribution of particle accumulation at the target cells. The impact of several factors that strongly influence gene vector delivery is assessed including the properties of the carrier particles, the strength of the field source, and its extent and proximity relative to the target cells. The study demonstrates that modeling can be used to predict and optimize gene vector delivery in the magnetofection process for novel and conventional in vitro systems.

Multivariate Predictors of Music Perception and Appraisal by Adult Cochlear Implant Users

PubMed Central

Gfeller, Kate; Oleson, Jacob; Knutson, John F.; Breheny, Patrick; Driscoll, Virginia; Olszewski, Carol

2009-01-01

The research examined whether performance by adult cochlear implant recipients on a variety of recognition and appraisal tests derived from real-world music could be predicted from technological, demographic, and life experience variables, as well as speech recognition scores. A representative sample of 209 adults implanted between 1985 and 2006 participated. Using multiple linear regression models and generalized linear mixed models, sets of optimal predictor variables were selected that effectively predicted performance on a test battery that assessed different aspects of music listening. These analyses established the importance of distinguishing between the accuracy of music perception and the appraisal of musical stimuli when using music listening as an index of implant success. Importantly, neither device type nor processing strategy predicted music perception or music appraisal. Speech recognition performance was not a strong predictor of music perception, and primarily predicted music perception when the test stimuli included lyrics. Additionally, limitations in the utility of speech perception in predicting musical perception and appraisal underscore the utility of music perception as an alternative outcome measure for evaluating implant outcomes. Music listening background, residual hearing (i.e., hearing aid use), cognitive factors, and some demographic factors predicted several indices of perceptual accuracy or appraisal of music. PMID:18669126

What is the chance that a patella dislocation will happen a second time: update on the natural history of a first time patella dislocation in the adolescent.

PubMed

Seitlinger, Gerd; Ladenhauf, Hannah N; Wierer, Guido

2018-02-01

Patellar instability occurs mainly in young patients and shows a high incidence of concomitant cartilage injuries. Recently there has been a strong attempt to identify risk factors and enhance imaging techniques to detect patients with an increased risk for recurrent patella dislocation.We describe current findings on factors associated with recurrent patella dislocation in the adolescent. Trochlear dysplasia, patellar height, patellar tilt, tibial tuberosity-trochlear groove distance, skeletal maturity, and history of contralateral patellar dislocation are well known significant risk factors for recurrence in adolescent patients. Predictive models to calculate risk of recurrence have been reported recently. The Patellar Instability Severity Score was the first to include demographic and anatomic factors, which is of major value when counseling patients and relatives. Several classification systems to predict the rate of recurrence after primary patella dislocation have been presented over the last years. Anatomic risk factors such as skeletal immaturity, trochlear morphology, patellar height, patellar tilt, and elevated tibial tuberosity-trochlear groove distance have been investigated. However, there is still a lack of knowledge as to how single risk factors or their interaction with each other may contribute.

Rumination, anxiety, depressive symptoms and subsequent depression in adolescents at risk for psychopathology: a longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

Wilkinson, Paul O; Croudace, Tim J; Goodyer, Ian M

2013-10-08

A ruminative style of responding to low mood is associated with subsequent high depressive symptoms and depressive disorder in children, adolescents and adults. Scores on self-report rumination scales correlate strongly with scores on anxiety and depression symptom scales. This may confound any associations between rumination and subsequent depression. Our sample comprised 658 healthy adolescents at elevated risk for psychopathology. This study applied ordinal item (non-linear) factor analysis to pooled items from three self-report questionnaires to explore whether there were separate, but correlated, constructs of rumination, depression and anxiety. It then tested whether rumination independently predicted depressive disorder and depressive symptoms over the subsequent 12 months, after adjusting for confounding variables. We identified a single rumination factor, which was correlated with factors representing cognitive symptoms of depression, somatic symptoms of depression and anxiety symptoms; and one factor representing adaptive responses to low mood. Elevated rumination scores predicted onset of depressive disorders over the subsequent year (p = 0.035), and levels of depressive symptoms 12 months later (p < 0.0005), after adjustment for prior levels of depressive and anxiety symptoms. High rumination predicts onset of depressive disorder in healthy adolescents. Therapy that reduces rumination and increases distraction/problem-solving may reduce onset and relapse rates of depression.

Age-Related Changes in Visual Temporal Order Judgment Performance: Relation to Sensory and Cognitive Capacities

PubMed Central

Busey, Thomas; Craig, James; Clark, Chris; Humes, Larry

2010-01-01

Five measures of temporal order judgments were obtained from 261 participants, including 146 elder, 44 middle aged, and 71 young participants. Strong age group differences were observed in all five measures, although the group differences were reduced when letter discriminability was matched for all participants. Significant relations were found between these measures of temporal processing and several cognitive and sensory assays, and structural equation modeling revealed the degree to which temporal order processing can be viewed as a latent factor that depends in part on contributions from sensory and cognitive capacities. The best-fitting model involved two different latent factors representing temporal order processing at same and different locations, and the sensory and cognitive factors were more successful predicting performance in the different location factor than the same-location factor. Processing speed, even measured using high-contrast symbols on a paper-and-pencil test, was a surprisingly strong predictor of variability in both latent factors. However, low-level sensory measures also made significant contributions to the latent factors. The results demonstrate the degree to which temporal order processing relates to other perceptual and cognitive capacities, and address the question of whether age-related declines in these capacities share a common cause. PMID:20580644

Age-related changes in visual temporal order judgment performance: Relation to sensory and cognitive capacities.

PubMed

Busey, Thomas; Craig, James; Clark, Chris; Humes, Larry

2010-08-06

Five measures of temporal order judgments were obtained from 261 participants, including 146 elder, 44 middle aged, and 71 young participants. Strong age group differences were observed in all five measures, although the group differences were reduced when letter discriminability was matched for all participants. Significant relations were found between these measures of temporal processing and several cognitive and sensory assays, and structural equation modeling revealed the degree to which temporal order processing can be viewed as a latent factor that depends in part on contributions from sensory and cognitive capacities. The best-fitting model involved two different latent factors representing temporal order processing at same and different locations, and the sensory and cognitive factors were more successful predicting performance in the different location factor than the same-location factor. Processing speed, even measured using high-contrast symbols on a paper-and-pencil test, was a surprisingly strong predictor of variability in both latent factors. However, low-level sensory measures also made significant contributions to the latent factors. The results demonstrate the degree to which temporal order processing relates to other perceptual and cognitive capacities, and address the question of whether age-related declines in these capacities share a common cause. Copyright 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Socio-environmental, personal and behavioural predictors of fast-food intake among adolescents.

PubMed

Bauer, Katherine W; Larson, Nicole I; Nelson, Melissa C; Story, Mary; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2009-10-01

To identify the socio-environmental, personal and behavioural factors that are longitudinally predictive of changes in adolescents' fast-food intake. Population-based longitudinal cohort study. Participants from Minnesota schools completed in-class assessments in 1999 (Time 1) while in middle school and mailed surveys in 2004 (Time 2) while in high school. A racially, ethnically and socio-economically diverse sample of adolescents (n 806). Availability of unhealthy food at home, being born in the USA and preferring the taste of unhealthy foods were predictive of higher fast-food intake after 5 years among both males and females. Among females, personal and behavioural factors, including concern about weight and use of healthy weight-control techniques, were protective against increased fast-food intake. Among males, socio-environmental factors, including maternal and friends' concern for eating healthy food and maternal encouragement to eat healthy food, were predictive of lower fast-food intake. Sports team participation was a strong risk factor for increased fast-food intake among males. Our findings suggest that addressing socio-environmental factors such as acculturation and home food availability may help reduce fast-food intake among adolescents. Additionally, gender-specific intervention strategies, including working with boys' sports teams, family members and the peer group, and for girls, emphasizing the importance of healthy weight-maintenance strategies and the addition of flavourful and healthy food options to their diet, may help reduce fast-food intake.

What Are the Prognostic Factors for Radiographic Progression of Knee Osteoarthritis? A Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Bastick, Alex N; Belo, Janneke N; Runhaar, Jos; Bierma-Zeinstra, Sita M A

2015-09-01

A previous systematic review on prognostic factors for knee osteoarthritis (OA) progression showed associations for generalized OA and hyaluronic acid levels. Knee pain, radiographic severity, sex, quadriceps strength, knee injury, and regular sport activities were not associated. It has been a decade since the literature search of that review and many studies have been performed since then investigating prognostic factors for radiographic knee OA progression. The purpose of this study is to provide an updated systematic review of available evidence regarding prognostic factors for radiographic knee OA progression. We searched for observational studies in MEDLINE and EMBASE. Key words were: knee, osteoarthritis (or arthritis, or arthrosis, or degenerative joint disease), progression (or prognosis, or precipitate, or predictive), and case-control (or cohort, or longitudinal, or follow-up). Studies fulfilling the inclusion criteria were assessed for methodologic quality according to established criteria for reviews on prognostic factors in musculoskeletal disorders. Data were extracted and results were pooled if possible or summarized according to a best-evidence synthesis. A total of 1912 additional articles were identified; 43 met our inclusion criteria. The previous review contained 36 articles, thus providing a new total of 79 articles. Seventy-two of the included articles were scored high quality, the remaining seven were low quality. The pooled odds ratio (OR) of two determinants showed associations with knee OA progression: baseline knee pain (OR, 2.38 [95% CI, 1.74-3.27) and Heberden nodes (OR, 2.66 [95% CI, 1.46-8.84]). Our best-evidence synthesis showed strong evidence that varus alignment, serum hyaluronic acid, and tumor necrosis factor-α are associated with knee OA progression. There is strong evidence that sex, former knee injury, quadriceps strength, smoking, running, and regular performance of sports are not associated with knee OA progression. Evidence for the majority of determined associations, however, was limited, conflicting, or inconclusive. Baseline knee pain, presence of Heberden nodes, varus alignment, and high levels of serum markers hyaluronic acid and tumor necrosis factor-α predict knee OA progression. Sex, knee injury, and quadriceps strength, among others, did not predict knee OA progression. Large variation remains in definitions of knee OA and knee OA progression. Clinical studies should use more consistent definitions of these factors to facilitate data pooling by future meta-analyses.

Forming Attitudes that Predict Future Behavior: A Meta-Analysis of the Attitude-Behavior Relation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Glasman, Laura R.; Albarracin, Dolores

2006-01-01

A meta-analysis (k of conditions = 128; N = 4,598) examined the influence of factors present at the time an attitude is formed on the degree to which this attitude guides future behavior. The findings indicated that attitudes correlated with a future behavior more strongly when they were easy to recall (accessible) and stable over time. Because of…

The Relative Predictive Contribution and Causal Role of Phoneme Awareness, Rhyme Awareness, and Verbal Short-Term Memory in Reading Skills: A Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Melby-Lervag, Monica

2012-01-01

The acknowledgement that educational achievement is highly dependent on successful reading development has led to extensive research on its underlying factors. A strong argument has been made for a causal relationship between reading and phoneme awareness; similarly, causal relations have been suggested for reading with short-term memory and rhyme…

Predisposing Factors for Spontaneous Closure of Congenital Portosystemic Shunts.

PubMed

Paganelli, Massimiliano; Lipsich, José E; Sciveres, Marco; Alvarez, Fernando

2015-10-01

In a review of 382 cases of congenital portosystemic shunt, we found that presentation with neonatal cholestasis strongly predicts spontaneous closure of intrahepatic shunts (OR 8.3, 95% CI 3.4-20.2). Spontaneous closure before the 24th month of age is more likely for distal or multiple shunts, but rare for patent ductus venosus. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Biological and behavioral factors modify urinary arsenic metabolic profiles in a U.S. population.

PubMed

Hudgens, Edward E; Drobna, Zuzana; He, Bin; Le, X C; Styblo, Miroslav; Rogers, John; Thomas, David J

2016-05-26

Because some adverse health effects associated with chronic arsenic exposure may be mediated by methylated arsenicals, interindividual variation in capacity to convert inorganic arsenic into mono- and di-methylated metabolites may be an important determinant of risk associated with exposure to this metalloid. Hence, identifying biological and behavioral factors that modify an individual's capacity to methylate inorganic arsenic could provide insights into critical dose-response relations underlying adverse health effects. A total of 904 older adults (≥45 years old) in Churchill County, Nevada, who chronically used home tap water supplies containing up to 1850 μg of arsenic per liter provided urine and toenail samples for determination of total and speciated arsenic levels. Effects of biological factors (gender, age, body mass index) and behavioral factors (smoking, recent fish or shellfish consumption) on patterns of arsenicals in urine were evaluated with bivariate analyses and multivariate regression models. Relative contributions of inorganic, mono-, and di-methylated arsenic to total speciated arsenic in urine were unchanged over the range of concentrations of arsenic in home tap water supplies used by study participants. Gender predicted both absolute and relative amounts of arsenicals in urine. Age predicted levels of inorganic arsenic in urine and body mass index predicted relative levels of mono- and di-methylated arsenic in urine. Smoking predicted both absolute and relative levels of arsenicals in urine. Multivariate regression models were developed for both absolute and relative levels of arsenicals in urine. Concentration of arsenic in home tap water and estimated water consumption were strongly predictive of levels of arsenicals in urine as were smoking, body mass index, and gender. Relative contributions of arsenicals to urinary arsenic were not consistently predicted by concentrations of arsenic in drinking water supplies but were more consistently predicted by gender, body mass index, age, and smoking. These findings suggest that analyses of dose-response relations in arsenic-exposed populations should account for biological and behavioral factors that modify levels of inorganic and methylated arsenicals in urine. Evidence of significant effects of these factors on arsenic metabolism may also support mode of action studies in appropriate experimental models.

Are the major risk/need factors predictive of both female and male reoffending?: a test with the eight domains of the level of service/case management inventory.

PubMed

Andrews, Donald A; Guzzo, Lina; Raynor, Peter; Rowe, Robert C; Rettinger, L Jill; Brews, Albert; Wormith, J Stephen

2012-02-01

The Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (LS/CMI) and the Youth version (YLS/CMI) generate an assessment of risk/need across eight domains that are considered to be relevant for girls and boys and for women and men. Aggregated across five data sets, the predictive validity of each of the eight domains was gender-neutral. The composite total score (LS/CMI total risk/need) was strongly associated with the recidivism of males (mean r = .39, mean AUC = .746) and very strongly associated with the recidivism of females (mean r = .53, mean AUC = .827). The enhanced validity of LS total risk/need with females was traced to the exceptional validity of Substance Abuse with females. The intra-data set conclusions survived the introduction of two very large samples composed of female offenders exclusively. Finally, the mean incremental contributions of gender and the gender-by-risk level interactions in the prediction of criminal recidivism were minimal compared to the relatively strong validity of the LS/CMI risk level. Although the variance explained by gender was minimal and although high-risk cases were high-risk cases regardless of gender, the recidivism rates of lower risk females were lower than the recidivism rates of lower risk males, suggesting possible implications for test interpretation and policy.

On the thermomechanical coupling in dissipative materials: A variational approach for generalized standard materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bartels, A.; Bartel, T.; Canadija, M.; Mosler, J.

2015-09-01

This paper deals with the thermomechanical coupling in dissipative materials. The focus lies on finite strain plasticity theory and the temperature increase resulting from plastic deformation. For this type of problem, two fundamentally different modeling approaches can be found in the literature: (a) models based on thermodynamical considerations and (b) models based on the so-called Taylor-Quinney factor. While a naive straightforward implementation of thermodynamically consistent approaches usually leads to an over-prediction of the temperature increase due to plastic deformation, models relying on the Taylor-Quinney factor often violate fundamental physical principles such as the first and the second law of thermodynamics. In this paper, a thermodynamically consistent framework is elaborated which indeed allows the realistic prediction of the temperature evolution. In contrast to previously proposed frameworks, it is based on a fully three-dimensional, finite strain setting and it naturally covers coupled isotropic and kinematic hardening - also based on non-associative evolution equations. Considering a variationally consistent description based on incremental energy minimization, it is shown that the aforementioned problem (thermodynamical consistency and a realistic temperature prediction) is essentially equivalent to correctly defining the decomposition of the total energy into stored and dissipative parts. Interestingly, this decomposition shows strong analogies to the Taylor-Quinney factor. In this respect, the Taylor-Quinney factor can be well motivated from a physical point of view. Furthermore, certain intervals for this factor can be derived in order to guarantee that fundamental physically principles are fulfilled a priori. Representative examples demonstrate the predictive capabilities of the final constitutive modeling framework.

Predictors of Physical Inactivity in Men and Women With Type 2 Diabetes From the Detection of Ischemia in Asymptomatic Diabetics (DIAD) Study

PubMed Central

McCarthy, Margaret M.; Davey, Janice; Wackers, Frans J. Th.; Chyun, Deborah A.

2014-01-01

Purpose The purpose of this secondary analysis was to determine changes in physical inactivity from baseline to 5 years and to identify factors associated with and predictive of physical inactivity among individuals with type 2 diabetes enrolled in the Detection of Ischemia in Asymptomatic Diabetics (DIAD) study. Methods DIAD was a prospective randomized screening trial that assessed the prevalence of silent ischemia in asymptomatic patients with type 2 diabetes. Subjects were recruited from diabetes and primary care practices at 14 centers throughout the United States and Canada. This is a secondary data analysis of the physical activity data (type and hours/week) collected. No intervention was conducted. Results In all subjects, physical inactivity rose from 24% at baseline to 33% at 5 years (S = 28.93; P < .0001). This change was significant in both men (S = 11.44; P < .0001), increasing from 23% to 31%, and women (S = 18.05; P < .0001), increasing from 25% to 36%. Gender differences were noted in several factors associated with baseline physical inactivity as well as in factors predictive of physical inactivity at 5 years. Important factors associated at both time points included lower level of education, current employment, presence of peripheral and autonomic neuropathy, and indicators of overweight/ obesity. Baseline physical inactivity was strongly predictive of physical inactivity at 5 years (odds ratio, 3.27; 95% confidence interval, 2.36-4.54; P < .0001). Conclusions Gender-related differences were noted in factors associated with and predictive of physical inactivity. PMID:24942531

Predictors of physical inactivity in men and women with type 2 diabetes from the Detection of Ischemia in Asymptomatic Diabetics (DIAD) study.

PubMed

McCarthy, Margaret M; Davey, Janice; Wackers, Frans J Th; Chyun, Deborah A

2014-01-01

The purpose of this secondary analysis was to determine changes in physical inactivity from baseline to 5 years and to identify factors associated with and predictive of physical inactivity among individuals with type 2 diabetes enrolled in the Detection of Ischemia in Asymptomatic Diabetics (DIAD) study. DIAD was a prospective randomized screening trial that assessed the prevalence of silent ischemia in asymptomatic patients with type 2 diabetes. Subjects were recruited from diabetes and primary care practices at 14 centers throughout the United States and Canada. This is a secondary data analysis of the physical activity data (type and hours/week) collected. No intervention was conducted. In all subjects, physical inactivity rose from 24% at baseline to 33% at 5 years (S = 28.93; P < .0001). This change was significant in both men (S = 11.44; P < .0001), increasing from 23% to 31%, and women (S = 18.05; P < .0001), increasing from 25% to 36%. Gender differences were noted in several factors associated with baseline physical inactivity as well as in factors predictive of physical inactivity at 5 years. Important factors associated at both time points included lower level of education, current employment, presence of peripheral and autonomic neuropathy, and indicators of overweight/obesity. Baseline physical inactivity was strongly predictive of physical inactivity at 5 years (odds ratio, 3.27; 95% confidence interval, 2.36-4.54; P < .0001). Gender-related differences were noted in factors associated with and predictive of physical inactivity. © 2014 The Author(s).

Statistical short-term earthquake prediction.

PubMed

Kagan, Y Y; Knopoff, L

1987-06-19

A statistical procedure, derived from a theoretical model of fracture growth, is used to identify a foreshock sequence while it is in progress. As a predictor, the procedure reduces the average uncertainty in the rate of occurrence for a future strong earthquake by a factor of more than 1000 when compared with the Poisson rate of occurrence. About one-third of all main shocks with local magnitude greater than or equal to 4.0 in central California can be predicted in this way, starting from a 7-year database that has a lower magnitude cut off of 1.5. The time scale of such predictions is of the order of a few hours to a few days for foreshocks in the magnitude range from 2.0 to 5.0.

Identification and targeting of a TACE-dependent autocrine loopwhich predicts poor prognosis in breast cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kenny, Paraic A.; Bissell, Mina J.

2005-06-15

The ability to proliferate independently of signals from other cell types is a fundamental characteristic of tumor cells. Using a 3D culture model of human breast cancer progression, we have delineated a protease-dependent autocrine loop which provides an oncogenic stimulus in the absence of proto-oncogene mutation. Inhibition of this protease, TACE/ADAM17, reverts the malignant phenotype by preventing mobilization of two crucial growth factors, Amphiregulin and TGF{alpha}. We show further that the efficacy of EGFR inhibitors is overcome by physiological levels of growth factors and that successful EGFR inhibition is dependent on reducing ligand bioavailability. Using existing patient outcome data, wemore » demonstrate a strong correlation between TACE and TGF{alpha} expression in human breast cancers that is predictive of poor prognosis.« less

Twitter predicts citation rates of ecological research

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peoples, Brandon K.; Midway, Stephen R.; Sackett, Dana K.; Lynch, Abigail; Cooney, Patrick B.

2016-01-01

The relationship between traditional metrics of research impact (e.g., number of citations) and alternative metrics (altmetrics) such as Twitter activity are of great interest, but remain imprecisely quantified. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to estimate the relative effects of Twitter activity, journal impact factor, and time since publication on Web of Science citation rates of 1,599 primary research articles from 20 ecology journals published from 2012–2014. We found a strong positive relationship between Twitter activity (i.e., the number of unique tweets about an article) and number of citations. Twitter activity was a more important predictor of citation rates than 5-year journal impact factor. Moreover, Twitter activity was not driven by journal impact factor; the ‘highest-impact’ journals were not necessarily the most discussed online. The effect of Twitter activity was only about a fifth as strong as time since publication; accounting for this confounding factor was critical for estimating the true effects of Twitter use. Articles in impactful journals can become heavily cited, but articles in journals with lower impact factors can generate considerable Twitter activity and also become heavily cited. Authors may benefit from establishing a strong social media presence, but should not expect research to become highly cited solely through social media promotion. Our research demonstrates that altmetrics and traditional metrics can be closely related, but not identical. We suggest that both altmetrics and traditional citation rates can be useful metrics of research impact.

Twitter Predicts Citation Rates of Ecological Research.

PubMed

Peoples, Brandon K; Midway, Stephen R; Sackett, Dana; Lynch, Abigail; Cooney, Patrick B

2016-01-01

The relationship between traditional metrics of research impact (e.g., number of citations) and alternative metrics (altmetrics) such as Twitter activity are of great interest, but remain imprecisely quantified. We used generalized linear mixed modeling to estimate the relative effects of Twitter activity, journal impact factor, and time since publication on Web of Science citation rates of 1,599 primary research articles from 20 ecology journals published from 2012-2014. We found a strong positive relationship between Twitter activity (i.e., the number of unique tweets about an article) and number of citations. Twitter activity was a more important predictor of citation rates than 5-year journal impact factor. Moreover, Twitter activity was not driven by journal impact factor; the 'highest-impact' journals were not necessarily the most discussed online. The effect of Twitter activity was only about a fifth as strong as time since publication; accounting for this confounding factor was critical for estimating the true effects of Twitter use. Articles in impactful journals can become heavily cited, but articles in journals with lower impact factors can generate considerable Twitter activity and also become heavily cited. Authors may benefit from establishing a strong social media presence, but should not expect research to become highly cited solely through social media promotion. Our research demonstrates that altmetrics and traditional metrics can be closely related, but not identical. We suggest that both altmetrics and traditional citation rates can be useful metrics of research impact.

Aridity weakens population-level effects of multiple species interactions on Hibiscus meyeri.

PubMed

Louthan, Allison M; Pringle, Robert M; Goheen, Jacob R; Palmer, Todd M; Morris, William F; Doak, Daniel F

2018-01-16

Predicting how species' abundances and ranges will shift in response to climate change requires a mechanistic understanding of how multiple factors interact to limit population growth. Both abiotic stress and species interactions can limit populations and potentially set range boundaries, but we have a poor understanding of when and where each is most critical. A commonly cited hypothesis, first proposed by Darwin, posits that abiotic factors (e.g., temperature, precipitation) are stronger determinants of range boundaries in apparently abiotically stressful areas ("stress" indicates abiotic factors that reduce population growth), including desert, polar, or high-elevation environments, whereas species interactions (e.g., herbivory, competition) play a stronger role in apparently less stressful environments. We tested a core tenet of this hypothesis-that population growth rate is more strongly affected by species interactions in less stressful areas-using experimental manipulations of species interactions affecting a common herbaceous plant, Hibiscus meyeri (Malvaceae), across an aridity gradient in a semiarid African savanna. Population growth was more strongly affected by four distinct species interactions (competition with herbaceous and shrubby neighbors, herbivory, and pollination) in less stressful mesic areas than in more stressful arid sites. However, contrary to common assumptions, this effect did not arise because of greater density or diversity of interacting species in less stressful areas, but rather because aridity reduced sensitivity of population growth to these interactions. Our work supports classic predictions about the relative strength of factors regulating population growth across stress gradients, but suggests that this pattern results from a previously unappreciated mechanism that may apply to many species worldwide.

Are low wages risk factors for hypertension?

PubMed Central

Du, Juan

2012-01-01

Objective: Socio-economic status (SES) is strongly correlated with hypertension. But SES has several components, including income and correlations in cross-sectional data need not imply SES is a risk factor. This study investigates whether wages—the largest category within income—are risk factors. Methods: We analysed longitudinal, nationally representative US data from four waves (1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005) of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The overall sample was restricted to employed persons age 25–65 years, n = 17 295. Separate subsamples were constructed of persons within two age groups (25–44 and 45–65 years) and genders. Hypertension incidence was self-reported based on physician diagnosis. Our study was prospective since data from three base years (1999, 2001, 2003) were used to predict newly diagnosed hypertension for three subsequent years (2001, 2003, 2005). In separate analyses, data from the first base year were used to predict time-to-reporting hypertension. Logistic regressions with random effects and Cox proportional hazards regressions were run. Results: Negative and strongly statistically significant correlations between wages and hypertension were found both in logistic and Cox regressions, especially for subsamples containing the younger age group (25–44 years) and women. Correlations were stronger when three health variables—obesity, subjective measures of health and number of co-morbidities—were excluded from regressions. Doubling the wage was associated with 25–30% lower chances of hypertension for persons aged 25–44 years. Conclusions: The strongest evidence for low wages being risk factors for hypertension among working people were for women and persons aged 25–44 years. PMID:22262559

Are low wages risk factors for hypertension?

PubMed

Leigh, J Paul; Du, Juan

2012-12-01

Socio-economic status (SES) is strongly correlated with hypertension. But SES has several components, including income and correlations in cross-sectional data need not imply SES is a risk factor. This study investigates whether wages-the largest category within income-are risk factors. We analysed longitudinal, nationally representative US data from four waves (1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005) of the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. The overall sample was restricted to employed persons age 25-65 years, n = 17 295. Separate subsamples were constructed of persons within two age groups (25-44 and 45-65 years) and genders. Hypertension incidence was self-reported based on physician diagnosis. Our study was prospective since data from three base years (1999, 2001, 2003) were used to predict newly diagnosed hypertension for three subsequent years (2001, 2003, 2005). In separate analyses, data from the first base year were used to predict time-to-reporting hypertension. Logistic regressions with random effects and Cox proportional hazards regressions were run. Negative and strongly statistically significant correlations between wages and hypertension were found both in logistic and Cox regressions, especially for subsamples containing the younger age group (25-44 years) and women. Correlations were stronger when three health variables-obesity, subjective measures of health and number of co-morbidities-were excluded from regressions. Doubling the wage was associated with 25-30% lower chances of hypertension for persons aged 25-44 years. The strongest evidence for low wages being risk factors for hypertension among working people were for women and persons aged 25-44 years.

Combined Prediction Model of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents Based on Independent and Dependent Variables

PubMed Central

Zhong-xiang, Feng; Shi-sheng, Lu; Wei-hua, Zhang; Nan-nan, Zhang

2014-01-01

In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability. PMID:25610454

Combined prediction model of death toll for road traffic accidents based on independent and dependent variables.

PubMed

Feng, Zhong-xiang; Lu, Shi-sheng; Zhang, Wei-hua; Zhang, Nan-nan

2014-01-01

In order to build a combined model which can meet the variation rule of death toll data for road traffic accidents and can reflect the influence of multiple factors on traffic accidents and improve prediction accuracy for accidents, the Verhulst model was built based on the number of death tolls for road traffic accidents in China from 2002 to 2011; and car ownership, population, GDP, highway freight volume, highway passenger transportation volume, and highway mileage were chosen as the factors to build the death toll multivariate linear regression model. Then the two models were combined to be a combined prediction model which has weight coefficient. Shapley value method was applied to calculate the weight coefficient by assessing contributions. Finally, the combined model was used to recalculate the number of death tolls from 2002 to 2011, and the combined model was compared with the Verhulst and multivariate linear regression models. The results showed that the new model could not only characterize the death toll data characteristics but also quantify the degree of influence to the death toll by each influencing factor and had high accuracy as well as strong practicability.

Predictors of intractable childhood epilepsy.

PubMed

Seker Yilmaz, Berna; Okuyaz, Cetin; Komur, Mustafa

2013-01-01

Our study sought to identify early predictive factors of medically intractable childhood epilepsy. A cohort of epileptic children from the city of Mersin was retrospectively investigated. All patients received care from the same Department of Pediatric Neurology. The epileptic cohort was divided into a drug-responsive epilepsy group and an intractable epilepsy group. Intractable epilepsy is defined as continued seizures in children despite adequate therapy with two or more antiepileptic drugs for more than 18 months. Strong univariate association was observed between intractability and several factors: age of onset, high initial seizure frequency, symptomatic etiology, mixed seizure types, previous history of status epilepticus, febrile and neonatal seizures, mental and motor developmental delay, multiple seizures in 1 day, electroencephalogram abnormalities, magnetic resonance imaging findings, and specific epileptic syndromes. Logistic regression analysis revealed that a previous history of epilepticus status, abnormal electroencephalogram results, and multiple seizures in 1 day comprise independent predictors of medically intractable childhood epilepsy. We suggest that medical intractability in childhood epilepsy can be predicted by monitoring these factors. Along with early prediction, alternative therapies may be designed to provide patients better seizure control and quality of life. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sexual selection affects local extinction and turnover in bird communities

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doherty, P.F.; Sorci, G.; Royle, J. Andrew; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Boulinier, T.

2003-01-01

Predicting extinction risks has become a central goal for conservation and evolutionary biologists interested in population and community dynamics. Several factors have been put forward to explain risks of extinction, including ecological and life history characteristics of individuals. For instance, factors that affect the balance between natality and mortality can have profound effects on population persistence. Sexual selection has been identified as one such factor. Populations under strong sexual selection experience a number of costs ranging from increased predation and parasitism to enhanced sensitivity to environmental and demographic stochasticity. These findings have led to the prediction that local extinction rates should be higher for species/populations with intense sexual selection. We tested this prediction by analyzing the dynamics of natural bird communities at a continental scale over a period of 21 years (1975-1996), using relevant statistical tools. In agreement with the theoretical prediction, we found that sexual selection increased risks of local extinction (dichromatic birds had on average a 23% higher local extinction rate than monochromatic species). However, despite higher local extinction probabilities, the number of dichromatic species did not decrease over the period considered in this study. This pattern was caused by higher local turnover rates of dichromatic species, resulting in relatively stable communities for both groups of species. Our results suggest that these communities function as metacommunities, with frequent local extinctions followed by colonization. Anthropogenic factors impeding dispersal might therefore have a significant impact on the global persistence of sexually selected species.

Understanding clinician attitudes towards implementation of guided self-help cognitive behaviour therapy for those who hear distressing voices: using factor analysis to test normalisation process theory.

PubMed

Hazell, Cassie M; Strauss, Clara; Hayward, Mark; Cavanagh, Kate

2017-07-24

The Normalisation Process Theory (NPT) has been used to understand the implementation of physical health care interventions. The current study aims to apply the NPT model to a secondary mental health context, and test the model using exploratory factor analysis. This study will consider the implementation of a brief cognitive behaviour therapy for psychosis (CBTp) intervention. Mental health clinicians were asked to complete a NPT-based questionnaire on the implementation of a brief CBTp intervention. All clinicians had experience of either working with the target client group or were able to deliver psychological therapies. In total, 201 clinicians completed the questionnaire. The results of the exploratory factor analysis found partial support for the NPT model, as three of the NPT factors were extracted: (1) coherence, (2) cognitive participation, and (3) reflexive monitoring. We did not find support for the fourth NPT factor (collective action). All scales showed strong internal consistency. Secondary analysis of these factors showed clinicians to generally support the implementation of the brief CBTp intervention. This study provides strong evidence for the validity of the three NPT factors extracted. Further research is needed to determine whether participants' level of seniority moderates factor extraction, whether this factor structure can be generalised to other healthcare settings, and whether pre-implementation attitudes predict actual implementation outcomes.

Predictive markers of honey bee colony collapse.

PubMed

Dainat, Benjamin; Evans, Jay D; Chen, Yan Ping; Gauthier, Laurent; Neumann, Peter

2012-01-01

Across the Northern hemisphere, managed honey bee colonies, Apis mellifera, are currently affected by abrupt depopulation during winter and many factors are suspected to be involved, either alone or in combination. Parasites and pathogens are considered as principal actors, in particular the ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor, associated viruses and the microsporidian Nosema ceranae. Here we used long term monitoring of colonies and screening for eleven disease agents and genes involved in bee immunity and physiology to identify predictive markers of honeybee colony losses during winter. The data show that DWV, Nosema ceranae, Varroa destructor and Vitellogenin can be predictive markers for winter colony losses, but their predictive power strongly depends on the season. In particular, the data support that V. destructor is a key player for losses, arguably in line with its specific impact on the health of individual bees and colonies.

Predictive Markers of Honey Bee Colony Collapse

PubMed Central

Dainat, Benjamin; Evans, Jay D.; Chen, Yan Ping; Gauthier, Laurent; Neumann, Peter

2012-01-01

Across the Northern hemisphere, managed honey bee colonies, Apis mellifera, are currently affected by abrupt depopulation during winter and many factors are suspected to be involved, either alone or in combination. Parasites and pathogens are considered as principal actors, in particular the ectoparasitic mite Varroa destructor, associated viruses and the microsporidian Nosema ceranae. Here we used long term monitoring of colonies and screening for eleven disease agents and genes involved in bee immunity and physiology to identify predictive markers of honeybee colony losses during winter. The data show that DWV, Nosema ceranae, Varroa destructor and Vitellogenin can be predictive markers for winter colony losses, but their predictive power strongly depends on the season. In particular, the data support that V. destructor is a key player for losses, arguably in line with its specific impact on the health of individual bees and colonies. PMID:22384162

Identifying risk profiles for childhood obesity using recursive partitioning based on individual, familial, and neighborhood environment factors.

PubMed

Van Hulst, Andraea; Roy-Gagnon, Marie-Hélène; Gauvin, Lise; Kestens, Yan; Henderson, Mélanie; Barnett, Tracie A

2015-02-15

Few studies consider how risk factors within multiple levels of influence operate synergistically to determine childhood obesity. We used recursive partitioning analysis to identify unique combinations of individual, familial, and neighborhood factors that best predict obesity in children, and tested whether these predict 2-year changes in body mass index (BMI). Data were collected in 2005-2008 and in 2008-2011 for 512 Quebec youth (8-10 years at baseline) with a history of parental obesity (QUALITY study). CDC age- and sex-specific BMI percentiles were computed and children were considered obese if their BMI was ≥95th percentile. Individual (physical activity and sugar-sweetened beverage intake), familial (household socioeconomic status and measures of parental obesity including both BMI and waist circumference), and neighborhood (disadvantage, prestige, and presence of parks, convenience stores, and fast food restaurants) factors were examined. Recursive partitioning, a method that generates a classification tree predicting obesity based on combined exposure to a series of variables, was used. Associations between resulting varying risk group membership and BMI percentile at baseline and 2-year follow up were examined using linear regression. Recursive partitioning yielded 7 subgroups with a prevalence of obesity equal to 8%, 11%, 26%, 28%, 41%, 60%, and 63%, respectively. The 2 highest risk subgroups comprised i) children not meeting physical activity guidelines, with at least one BMI-defined obese parent and 2 abdominally obese parents, living in disadvantaged neighborhoods without parks and, ii) children with these characteristics, except with access to ≥1 park and with access to ≥1 convenience store. Group membership was strongly associated with BMI at baseline, but did not systematically predict change in BMI. Findings support the notion that obesity is predicted by multiple factors in different settings and provide some indications of potentially obesogenic environments. Alternate group definitions as well as longer duration of follow up should be investigated to predict change in obesity.

Factor structure and construct validity of the psychopathic personality inventory in a forensic sample.

PubMed

Gonsalves, Valerie M; McLawsen, Julia E; Huss, Matthew T; Scalora, Mario J

2013-01-01

A wealth of research has underscored the strong relationship between PCL-R scores and recidivism. However, mounting criticism cites the PCL-R's cumbersome administration procedures and failure to adequately measure core features associated with the construct of psychopathy (Skeem, Polaschek, Patrick, & Lilienfeld, 2011). In light of these concerns, this study examined the PPI and the PPI-R, which were designed to measure core personality features associated with psychopathy (Lilienfeld & Andrews, 1996; Lilienfeld & Widows, 2005). Study one examined the PPI relative to the PCL-R and examined its factor structure. The instruments shared few significant correlations and neither the PCL-R nor the PPI significantly predicted recidivism. Study two examined the PPI-R relative to the PCL-R, the PPI, both history of violence and future criminal activity and measure of related constructs. The PPI-R was significantly correlated with measures of empathy and criminal thinking and the factors were related to a history of violence and predicted future violent criminal behavior. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factorial analysis of trihalomethanes formation in drinking water.

PubMed

Chowdhury, Shakhawat; Champagne, Pascale; McLellan, P James

2010-06-01

Disinfection of drinking water reduces pathogenic infection, but may pose risks to human health through the formation of disinfection byproducts. The effects of different factors on the formation of trihalomethanes were investigated using a statistically designed experimental program, and a predictive model for trihalomethanes formation was developed. Synthetic water samples with different factor levels were produced, and trihalomethanes concentrations were measured. A replicated fractional factorial design with center points was performed, and significant factors were identified through statistical analysis. A second-order trihalomethanes formation model was developed from 92 experiments, and the statistical adequacy was assessed through appropriate diagnostics. This model was validated using additional data from the Drinking Water Surveillance Program database and was applied to the Smiths Falls water supply system in Ontario, Canada. The model predictions were correlated strongly to the measured trihalomethanes, with correlations of 0.95 and 0.91, respectively. The resulting model can assist in analyzing risk-cost tradeoffs in the design and operation of water supply systems.

Non-climatic constraints on upper elevational plant range expansion under climate change

PubMed Central

Brown, Carissa D.; Vellend, Mark

2014-01-01

We are limited in our ability to predict climate-change-induced range shifts by our inadequate understanding of how non-climatic factors contribute to determining range limits along putatively climatic gradients. Here, we present a unique combination of observations and experiments demonstrating that seed predation and soil properties strongly limit regeneration beyond the upper elevational range limit of sugar maple, a tree species of major economic importance. Most strikingly, regeneration beyond the range limit occurred almost exclusively when seeds were experimentally protected from predators. Regeneration from seed was depressed on soil from beyond the range edge when this soil was transplanted to sites within the range, with indirect evidence suggesting that fungal pathogens play a role. Non-climatic factors are clearly in need of careful attention when attempting to predict the biotic consequences of climate change. At minimum, we can expect non-climatic factors to create substantial time lags between the creation of more favourable climatic conditions and range expansion. PMID:25253462

Inhalation injury in a burn unit: a retrospective review of prognostic factors

PubMed Central

Monteiro, D.; Silva, I.; Egipto, P.; Magalhães, A.; Filipe, R.; Silva, A.; Rodrigues, A.; Costa, J.

2017-01-01

Summary Inhalation injury (InI) is known to seriously affect the prognosis of burn patients, as it is strongly associated with high morbidity and mortality. Despite major advances in the treatment of burn patients in the past years, advances in the treatment of smoke InI have been somewhat limited; mortality reduction mostly results from improvements in critical care. It is difficult to separate the contribution of InI from other mechanisms that also affect respiratory tract and lungs. The aim of this study was to compare patients with and without InI and to identify prognostic factors among patients with smoke InI. Patients with InI displayed higher total body surface area (TBSA) burned, higher incidence of pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a higher rate of positive blood cultures and a significantly higher death rate. We could conclude that older age, higher TBSA, ARDS and pneumonia were independent predictive factors for mortality in our global study population. Older age and higher TBSA were the only independent factors found to be predictive of mortality in patients with InI. PMID:29021724

Inhalation injury in a burn unit: a retrospective review of prognostic factors.

PubMed

Monteiro, D; Silva, I; Egipto, P; Magalhães, A; Filipe, R; Silva, A; Rodrigues, A; Costa, J

2017-06-30

Inhalation injury (InI) is known to seriously affect the prognosis of burn patients, as it is strongly associated with high morbidity and mortality. Despite major advances in the treatment of burn patients in the past years, advances in the treatment of smoke InI have been somewhat limited; mortality reduction mostly results from improvements in critical care. It is difficult to separate the contribution of InI from other mechanisms that also affect respiratory tract and lungs. The aim of this study was to compare patients with and without InI and to identify prognostic factors among patients with smoke InI. Patients with InI displayed higher total body surface area (TBSA) burned, higher incidence of pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), a higher rate of positive blood cultures and a significantly higher death rate. We could conclude that older age, higher TBSA, ARDS and pneumonia were independent predictive factors for mortality in our global study population. Older age and higher TBSA were the only independent factors found to be predictive of mortality in patients with InI.

School violence in Taiwan: examining how Western risk factors predict school violence in an Asian culture.

PubMed

Chen, Ji-Kang; Avi Astor, Ron

2010-08-01

The current study explores whether theorized risk factors in Western countries can be used to predict school violence perpetration in an Asian cultural context. The study examines the associations between risk factors and school violence perpetration in Taiwan. Data were obtained from a nationally representative sample of 14,022 students from elementary to high school (Grades 4 to 12) across Taiwan. The analysis reported in this study focuses on only junior high school students (Grades 7 to 9, N = 3,058). The results of a regression analysis show that gender, age, direct victimization, witness victimization, alcohol use, smoking, anger traits, lack of impulse control, attitudes toward violence, poor quality of student-teacher relationships, and involvement with at-risk peers were significantly associated with school violence in Taiwan. The overall results suggest strong similarities in risk factors found in the West and school violence in Taiwan. They therefore point toward using similar strategies developed in the West to enhance students' positive experiences in their personal, family, and school lives to decrease school violence.

The efficacy of real-time colour Doppler flow imaging on endoscopic ultrasonography for differential diagnosis between neoplastic and non-neoplastic gallbladder polyps.

PubMed

Kim, Su Young; Cho, Jae Hee; Kim, Eui Joo; Chung, Dong Hae; Kim, Kun Kuk; Park, Yeon Ho; Kim, Yeon Suk

2018-05-01

We evaluated the usefulness of real-time colour Doppler flow (CDF) endoscopic ultrasonography (EUS) for differentiating neoplastic gallbladder (GB) polyps from non-neoplastic polyps. Between August 2014 and December 2016, a total of 233 patients with GB polyps who underwent real-time CDF-EUS were consecutively enrolled in this prospective study. CDF imaging was subjectively categorized for each patient as: strong CDF pattern, weak CDF pattern and no CDF pattern. Of the 233 patients, 115 underwent surgical resection. Of these, there were 90 cases of non-neoplastic GB polyps and 23 cases of neoplastic GB polyps. In a multivariate analysis, a strong CDF pattern was the most significant predictive factor for neoplastic polyps; sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and accuracy were 52.2 %, 79.4 %, 38.7 %, 86.9 % and 73.9 %, respectively. Solitary polyp and polyp size were associated with an increased risk of neoplasm. The presence of a strong CDF pattern as well as solitary and larger polyps on EUS may be predictive of neoplastic GB polyps. As real-time CDF-EUS poses no danger to the patient and requires no additional equipment, it is likely to become a supplemental tool for the differential diagnosis of GB polyps. • Differential diagnosis between neoplastic polyps and non-neoplastic polyps of GB is limited. • The use of real-time CDF-EUS was convenient, with high agreement between operators. • The real-time CDF-EUS is helpful in differential diagnosis of GB polyps.

Chaos and the (un)predictability of evolution in a changing environment.

PubMed

Rego-Costa, Artur; Débarre, Florence; Chevin, Luis-Miguel

2018-02-01

Among the factors that may reduce the predictability of evolution, chaos, characterized by a strong dependence on initial conditions, has received much less attention than randomness due to genetic drift or environmental stochasticity. It was recently shown that chaos in phenotypic evolution arises commonly under frequency-dependent selection caused by competitive interactions mediated by many traits. This result has been used to argue that chaos should often make evolutionary dynamics unpredictable. However, populations also evolve largely in response to external changing environments, and such environmental forcing is likely to influence the outcome of evolution in systems prone to chaos. We investigate how a changing environment causing oscillations of an optimal phenotype interacts with the internal dynamics of an eco-evolutionary system that would be chaotic in a constant environment. We show that strong environmental forcing can improve the predictability of evolution by reducing the probability of chaos arising, and by dampening the magnitude of chaotic oscillations. In contrast, weak forcing can increase the probability of chaos, but it also causes evolutionary trajectories to track the environment more closely. Overall, our results indicate that, although chaos may occur in evolution, it does not necessarily undermine its predictability. © 2017 The Author(s). Evolution © 2017 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Hadronic Form Factors in Asymptotically Free Field Theories

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Gross, D. J.; Treiman, S. B.

1974-01-01

The breakdown of Bjorken scaling in asymptotically free gauge theories of the strong interactions is explored for its implications on the large q{sup 2} behavior of nucleon form factors. Duality arguments of Bloom and Gilman suggest a connection between the form factors and the threshold properties of the deep inelastic structure functions. The latter are addressed directly in an analysis of asymptotically free theories; and through the duality connection we are then led to statements about the form factors. For very large q{sup 2} the form factors are predicted to fall faster than any inverse power of q{sup 2}. For the more modest range of q{sup 2} reached in existing experiments the agreement with data is fairly good, though this may well be fortuitous. Extrapolations beyond this range are presented.

Associations among cruelty to animals, family conflict, and psychopathic traits in childhood.

PubMed

Dadds, Mark R; Whiting, Clare; Hawes, David J

2006-03-01

Previous research has produced mixed findings on the role of child and family factors in the genesis of childhood cruelty. The authors examined the relationships of cruelty to animals to a range of child and family factors. First, the authors test the idea that cruelty is a callous aggression that will be more strongly associated with psychopathic (callous or unemotional, CU) traits than general externalizing problems. Second, the authors operationalize family problems as open conflict rather than parenting problems as used earlier. Results indicated that for both genders, CU traits were associated strongly with cruelty. For boys, externalizing problems also added prediction in regression analyses. Family conflict was not associated with cruelty for either. These results suggest that cruelty to animals may be an early manifestation of the subgroup of children developing conduct problems associated with traits of low empathy and callous disregard rather than the more common pathway of externalizing problems and parenting problems.

A Theoretical and Clinical Framework for Parental Burnout: The Balance Between Risks and Resources (BR2)

PubMed Central

Mikolajczak, Moïra; Roskam, Isabelle

2018-01-01

Parental burnout is a specific syndrome resulting from enduring exposure to chronic parenting stress. But why do some parents burn out while others, facing the same stressors, do not? The main aim of this paper was to propose a theory of parental burnout capable of predicting who is at risk of burnout, explaining why a particular parent burned out and why at that specific point in time, and providing directions for intervention. The secondary goal was to operationalize this theory in a tool that would be easy to use for both researchers and clinicians. The results of this two-wave longitudinal study conducted on 923 parents suggest that the Balance between Risks and Resources (BR2) theory proposed here is a relevant framework to predict and explain parental burnout. More specifically, the results show that (1) the BR2 instrument reliably measures parents' balance between risks (parental stress-enhancing factors) and resources (parental stress-alleviating factors), (2) there is a strong linear relationship between BR2 score and parental burnout, (3) parental burnout results from a chronic imbalance of risks over resources, (4) BR2 predicts parental burnout better than job burnout and (5) among the risk and resource factors measured in BR2, risks and resources non-specific to parenting (e.g., low stress-management abilities, perfectionism) equally predict parental and job burnout, while risks and resources specific to parenting (e.g., childrearing practices, coparenting) uniquely predict parental burnout. PMID:29946278

Can small field diode correction factors be applied universally?

PubMed

Liu, Paul Z Y; Suchowerska, Natalka; McKenzie, David R

2014-09-01

Diode detectors are commonly used in dosimetry, but have been reported to over-respond in small fields. Diode correction factors have been reported in the literature. The purpose of this study is to determine whether correction factors for a given diode type can be universally applied over a range of irradiation conditions including beams of different qualities. A mathematical relation of diode over-response as a function of the field size was developed using previously published experimental data in which diodes were compared to an air core scintillation dosimeter. Correction factors calculated from the mathematical relation were then compared those available in the literature. The mathematical relation established between diode over-response and the field size was found to predict the measured diode correction factors for fields between 5 and 30 mm in width. The average deviation between measured and predicted over-response was 0.32% for IBA SFD and PTW Type E diodes. Diode over-response was found to be not strongly dependent on the type of linac, the method of collimation or the measurement depth. The mathematical relation was found to agree with published diode correction factors derived from Monte Carlo simulations and measurements, indicating that correction factors are robust in their transportability between different radiation beams. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.

An Overview of Factors Associated with Adherence to Lifestyle Modification Programs for Weight Management in Adults

PubMed Central

Chan, Ruth S. M.; Sea, Mandy M. M.

2017-01-01

This review aims to provide an overview of the factors associated with adherence reported in existing literature on lifestyle modification programs for weight management among the adult population. An electronic search was performed using PubMed, Medline, PsycINFO and PsycARTICLE to identify studies that examined the factors of adherence to lifestyle modification programs with explicit definition of adherence indicators. We identified 19 studies published between 2004 and 2016. The most commonly used indicator of adherence was attrition, followed by attendance, self-monitoring and dietary adherence. A broad array of factors has been studied but only few studies exploring each factor. Limited evidence suggested older age, higher education, healthier eating and physical activity behaviours, higher stage of change at baseline and higher initial weight loss may predict better adherence. On the other hand, having depression, stress, strong body shape concern, more previous weight loss attempts and being unemployed may predict poor adherence. Inconsistent findings were obtained for self-efficacy, motivation and male gender. This review highlights the need for more rigorous studies to enhance our knowledge on factors related to adherence. Identification of the factors of adherence could provide important implication for program improvement, ultimately improving the effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness of lifestyle modification program. PMID:28813030

The role of dispersal mode and habitat specialization for metacommunity structure of shallow beach invertebrates.

PubMed

Rodil, Iván F; Lucena-Moya, Paloma; Jokinen, Henri; Ollus, Victoria; Wennhage, Håkan; Villnäs, Anna; Norkko, Alf

2017-01-01

Metacommunity ecology recognizes the interplay between local and regional patterns in contributing to spatial variation in community structure. In aquatic systems, the relative importance of such patterns depends mainly on the potential connectivity of the specific system. Thus, connectivity is expected to increase in relation to the degree of water movement, and to depend on the specific traits of the study organism. We examined the role of environmental and spatial factors in structuring benthic communities from a highly connected shallow beach network using a metacommunity approach. Both factors contributed to a varying degree to the structure of the local communities suggesting that environmental filters and dispersal-related mechanisms played key roles in determining abundance patterns. We categorized benthic taxa according to their dispersal mode (passive vs. active) and habitat specialization (generalist vs. specialist) to understand the relative importance of environment and dispersal related processes for shallow beach metacommunities. Passive dispersers were predicted by a combination of environmental and spatial factors, whereas active dispersers were not spatially structured and responded only to local environmental factors. Generalists were predicted primarily by spatial factors, while specialists were only predicted by local environmental factors. The results suggest that the role of the spatial component in metacommunity organization is greater in open coastal waters, such as shallow beaches, compared to less-connected environmentally controlled aquatic systems. Our results also reveal a strong environmental role in structuring the benthic metacommunity of shallow beaches. Specifically, we highlight the sensitivity of shallow beach macrofauna to environmental factors related to eutrophication proxies.

The role of dispersal mode and habitat specialization for metacommunity structure of shallow beach invertebrates

PubMed Central

Lucena-Moya, Paloma; Jokinen, Henri; Ollus, Victoria; Wennhage, Håkan; Villnäs, Anna; Norkko, Alf

2017-01-01

Metacommunity ecology recognizes the interplay between local and regional patterns in contributing to spatial variation in community structure. In aquatic systems, the relative importance of such patterns depends mainly on the potential connectivity of the specific system. Thus, connectivity is expected to increase in relation to the degree of water movement, and to depend on the specific traits of the study organism. We examined the role of environmental and spatial factors in structuring benthic communities from a highly connected shallow beach network using a metacommunity approach. Both factors contributed to a varying degree to the structure of the local communities suggesting that environmental filters and dispersal-related mechanisms played key roles in determining abundance patterns. We categorized benthic taxa according to their dispersal mode (passive vs. active) and habitat specialization (generalist vs. specialist) to understand the relative importance of environment and dispersal related processes for shallow beach metacommunities. Passive dispersers were predicted by a combination of environmental and spatial factors, whereas active dispersers were not spatially structured and responded only to local environmental factors. Generalists were predicted primarily by spatial factors, while specialists were only predicted by local environmental factors. The results suggest that the role of the spatial component in metacommunity organization is greater in open coastal waters, such as shallow beaches, compared to less-connected environmentally controlled aquatic systems. Our results also reveal a strong environmental role in structuring the benthic metacommunity of shallow beaches. Specifically, we highlight the sensitivity of shallow beach macrofauna to environmental factors related to eutrophication proxies. PMID:28196112

Explaining use of food parenting practices: the importance of predisposing factors and parental cognitions.

PubMed

Gevers, Dorus Wm; van Assema, Patricia; de Vries, Nanne K; Kremers, Stef Pj

2017-09-01

The high energy intake from energy-dense foods among children in developed countries is undesirable. Improving food parenting practices has the potential to lower snack intakes among children. To inform the development of interventions, we aimed to predict food parenting practice patterns around snacking (i.e. 'high covert control and rewarding', 'low covert control and non-rewarding', 'high involvement and supportive' and 'low involvement and indulgent'). A cross-sectional survey was conducted. To predict the patterns of food parenting practices, multinomial logistic regression analyses were run with 888 parents. Predictors included predisposing factors (i.e. parents' and children's demographics and BMI, parents' personality, general parenting, and parenting practices used by their own parents) and parents' cognitions (i.e. perceived behaviour of other parents, subjective norms, attitudes, self-efficacy and outcome expectations). The Netherlands (October-November 2014). Dutch parents of children aged 4-12 years old. After backward elimination, nineteen factors had a statistically significant contribution to the model (Nagelkerke R 2=0·63). Overall, self-efficacy and outcome expectations were among the strongest explanatory factors. Considering the predisposing factors only, the general parenting factor nurturance most strongly predicted the food parenting clusters. Nurturance particularly distinguished highly involved parents from parents employing a pattern of low involvement. Parental cognitions and nurturance are important factors to explain the use of food parenting practices around snacking. The results suggest that intervention developers should attempt to increase self-efficacy and educate parents about what constitute effective and ineffective parenting practices. Promoting nurturance might be a prerequisite to achieve prolonged change.

Marijuana protective behavioral strategies as a moderator of the effects of risk/protective factors on marijuana-related outcomes.

PubMed

Bravo, Adrian J; Anthenien, Amber M; Prince, Mark A; Pearson, Matthew R

2017-06-01

Given that both marijuana use and cannabis use disorder peak among college students, it is imperative to determine the factors that may reduce risk of problematic marijuana use and/or the development of cannabis use disorder. From a harm reduction perspective, the present study examined whether the use of marijuana protective behavioral strategies (PBS) buffers or amplifies the effects of several distinct risk and protective factors that have been shown to relate to marijuana-related outcomes (i.e., use frequency and consequences). Specifically, we examined marijuana-PBS use as a moderator of the effects of impulsivity-like traits, marijuana use motives, gender, and marijuana use frequency on marijuana-related outcomes in a large sample of college students (n=2093 past month marijuana users across 11 universities). In all models PBS use was robustly related with use frequency and consequences (i.e., strongly negatively associated with marijuana outcomes). Among interactions, we found: 1) unique significant interactions between specific impulsivity-like traits (i.e., premeditation, perseverance, and sensation seeking) and marijuana-PBS use in predicting marijuana consequences, 2) unique significant interactions between each marijuana use motive and marijuana-PBS use in predicting marijuana use frequency and 3) marijuana-PBS use buffered the risk associated with male gender in predicting both marijuana outcomes. Our results suggest that marijuana-PBS use can buffer risk factors and enhance protective factors among marijuana using college students. Future research is needed to understand context-specific factors and individual-level factors that may make marijuana-PBS use more effective. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Perceived difficulty in the theory of planned behaviour: perceived behavioural control or affective attitude?

PubMed

Kraft, Pål; Rise, Jostein; Sutton, Stephen; Røysamb, Espen

2005-09-01

A study was conducted to explore (a) the dimensional structure of perceived behavioural control (PBC), (b) the conceptual basis of perceived difficulty items, and (c) how PBC components and instrumental and affective attitudes, respectively, relate to intention and behaviour. The material stemmed from a two-wave study of Norwegian graduate students (N = 227 for the prediction of intention and N = 110 for the prediction of behaviour). Data were analysed using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and multiple regression by the application of structural equation modelling (SEM). CFA suggested that PBC could be conceived of as consisting of three separate but interrelated factors (perceived control, perceived confidence and perceived difficulty), or as two separate but interrelated factors representing self-efficacy (measured by perceived difficulty and perceived confidence or by just perceived confidence) and perceived control. However, the perceived difficulty items also overlapped substantially with affective attitude. Perceived confidence was a strong predictor of exercise intention but not of recycling intention. Perceived control, however, was a strong predictor of recycling intention but not exercise intention. Affective attitudes but not instrumental attitudes were identified as substantial predictors of intentions. The findings suggest that at least under some circumstances it may be inadequate to measure PBC by means of perceived difficulty. One possible consequence may be that the role of PBC as a predictor of intention is somewhat overestimated, whereas the role of (affective) attitude may be similarly underestimated.

From prediction error to incentive salience: mesolimbic computation of reward motivation

PubMed Central

Berridge, Kent C.

2011-01-01

Reward contains separable psychological components of learning, incentive motivation and pleasure. Most computational models have focused only on the learning component of reward, but the motivational component is equally important in reward circuitry, and even more directly controls behavior. Modeling the motivational component requires recognition of additional control factors besides learning. Here I will discuss how mesocorticolimbic mechanisms generate the motivation component of incentive salience. Incentive salience takes Pavlovian learning and memory as one input and as an equally important input takes neurobiological state factors (e.g., drug states, appetite states, satiety states) that can vary independently of learning. Neurobiological state changes can produce unlearned fluctuations or even reversals in the ability of a previously-learned reward cue to trigger motivation. Such fluctuations in cue-triggered motivation can dramatically depart from all previously learned values about the associated reward outcome. Thus a consequence of the difference between incentive salience and learning can be to decouple cue-triggered motivation of the moment from previously learned values of how good the associated reward has been in the past. Another consequence can be to produce irrationally strong motivation urges that are not justified by any memories of previous reward values (and without distorting associative predictions of future reward value). Such irrationally strong motivation may be especially problematic in addiction. To comprehend these phenomena, future models of mesocorticolimbic reward function should address the neurobiological state factors that participate to control generation of incentive salience. PMID:22487042

Current from a nano-gap hyperbolic diode using shape-factors: Theory

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jensen, Kevin L.; Shiffler, Donald A.; Peckerar, Martin; Harris, John R.; Petillo, John J.

2017-08-01

Quantum tunneling by field emission from nanoscale features or sharp field emission structures for which the anode-cathode gap is nanometers in scale ("nano diodes") experience strong deviations from the planar image charge lowered tunneling barrier used in the Murphy and Good formulation of the Fowler-Nordheim equation. These deviations alter the prediction of total current from a curved surface. Modifications to the emission barrier are modeled using a hyperbolic (prolate spheroidal) geometry to determine the trajectories along which the Gamow factor in a WKB-like treatment is undertaken; a quadratic equivalent potential is determined, and a method of shape factors is used to evaluate the corrected total current from a protrusion or wedge geometry.

Parental influences predict adolescent smoking in the United States, 1989-1993.

PubMed

Distefan, J M; Gilpin, E A; Choi, W S; Pierce, J P

1998-06-01

To examine parental influences on two transitions in the adolescent smoking uptake process: from never having smoked to experimentation and from experimentation to established smoking. Using data from the longitudinal Teenage Attitudes and Practices Survey of 1989-1993, we related perceived parental concern about their adolescents' future smoking, parental smoking status, problem-solving communication between parent and adolescent, demographics, and other factors at baseline to experimentation by follow-up among those who had never puffed on a cigarette (n = 4149). We also related these factors at baseline to reaching a lifetime level of smoking of at least 100 cigarettes by follow up among those who had experimented but smoked < 100 cigarettes (n = 2684) in univariate and multivariate analyses. Among never-smokers, baseline susceptibility to smoking and having male best friends who smoke predicted experimentation in the next 4 years. Among experimenters, susceptibility to smoking, having male or female best friends who smoked, and lack of parental concern about future smoking distinguished those who progressed to established smoking by follow-up. Furthermore, communicating with parents first about serious problems was protective against progression from experimentation to established smoking. Interventions aimed at reducing adolescent smoking should encourage cessation for parents who smoke and help parents communicate strong anti-smoking norms to children and adolescents and maintain strong lines of communication with them.

Is family sense of coherence a protective factor against the obesogenic environment?

PubMed

Speirs, Katherine E; Hayes, Jenna T; Musaad, Salma; VanBrackle, Angela; Sigman-Grant, Madeleine

2016-04-01

Despite greater risk for poor nutrition, inactivity, and overweight, some low-income children are able to maintain a healthy weight. We explore if a strong family sense of coherence (FSOC) acts as a protective factor against childhood obesity for low-income preschool children. Families with a strong FSOC view challenges as predictable, understandable, worthy of engaging, and surmountable. Data were collected from 321 low-income mothers and their preschool children in five states between March 2011 and May 2013. FSOC was assessed using the Family Sense of Coherence Scale. A 16-item checklist was used to assess practicing healthy child behaviors (fruit and vegetable consumption and availability, physical activity, and family meals) and limiting unhealthy child behaviors (sweetened beverage and fast food consumption, energy dense snack availability, and screen time). Child body mass index (BMI) z-scores were calculated from measured height and weight. FSOC was significantly associated with practicing healthy child behaviors (β = 0.32, p < .001). We did not find a statistically significant association between FSOC and limiting unhealthy child behaviors or child BMI z-scores in fully adjusted models. Our results suggest the importance of family functioning in predicting health behaviors around food consumption and availability, physical activity, and family meals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

French version of the Family Attitude Scale: psychometric properties and relation of attitudes to the respondent's psychiatric status.

PubMed

Vandeleur, Caroline L; Kavanagh, David J; Favez, Nicolas; Castelao, Enrique; Preisig, Martin

2013-12-15

The Family Attitude Scale (FAS) is a self-report measure of critical or hostile attitudes and behaviors towards another family member, and demonstrates an ability to predict relapse in psychoses. Data are not currently available on a French version of the scale. The present study developed a French version of the FAS, using a large general population sample to test its internal structure, criterion validity and relationships with the respondents' symptoms and psychiatric diagnoses, and examined the reciprocity of FAS ratings by respondents and their partners. A total of 2072 adults from an urban population undertook a diagnostic interview and completed self-report measures, including an FAS about their partner. A subset of participants had partners who also completed the FAS. Confirmatory factor analyses revealed an excellent fit by a single-factor model, and the FAS demonstrated a strong association with dyadic adjustment. FAS scores of respondents were affected by their anxiety levels and mood, alcohol and anxiety diagnoses, and moderate reciprocity of attitudes and behaviors between the partners was seen. The French version of the FAS has similarly strong psychometric properties to the original English version. Future research should assess the ability of the French FAS to predict relapse of psychiatric disorders. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

An evaluation of the Psychache Scale on an offender population.

PubMed

Mills, Jeremy F; Green, Kate; Reddon, John R

2005-10-01

This study examined the generalizability of a self-report measure of psychache to an offender population. The factor structure, construct validity, and criterion validity of the Psychache Scale was assessed on 136 male prison inmates. The results showed the Psychache Scale has a single underlying factor structure and to be strongly associated with measures of depression and hopelessness and moderately associated with psychiatric symptoms and the criterion variable of a history of prior suicide attempts. The variables of depression, hopelessness, and psychiatric symptoms all contributed unique variance to psychache. Discussion centers on psychache's theoretical application to the prediction of suicide.

How can we better predict the risk of spontaneous miscarriage among women experiencing threatened miscarriage?

PubMed

Ku, Chee Wai; Allen, John C; Malhotra, Rahul; Chong, Han Chung; Tan, Nguan Soon; Østbye, Truls; Lek, Sze Min; Lie, Desiree; Tan, Thiam Chye

2015-01-01

This study seeks to establish progesterone and progesterone-induced blocking factor (PIBF) levels as predictors of subsequent completed miscarriage among women presenting with threatened miscarriage between 6 and 10 weeks of gestation. Our secondary objective was to assess the known maternal risk factors, toward development of a parsimonious and clinician-friendly risk assessment model for predicting completed miscarriage. In this article, we present a prospective cohort study of 119 patients presenting with threatened miscarriage from gestation weeks 6 to 10 at a tertiary women's hospital emergency unit in Singapore. Thirty (25.2%) women had a spontaneous miscarriage. Low progesterone and PIBF levels are similarly predictive of subsequent completed miscarriage. Study results (OR, 95% CI) showed that higher levels of progesterone (0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94) and PIBF (0.99, 95% CI 0.98-0.99) were associated with lower risk of miscarriage. Low progesterone level was a very strong predictor of miscarriage risk in our study despite previous concerns about its pulsatile secretion. Low serum progesterone and PIBF levels predicted spontaneous miscarriage among women presenting with threatened miscarriage between gestation weeks 6 to 10. Predictive models to calculate probability of spontaneous miscarriage based on serum progesterone, together with maternal BMI and fetal heart are proposed.

Prediction of Low Community Sanitation Coverage Using Environmental and Sociodemographic Factors in Amhara Region, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Oswald, William E.; Stewart, Aisha E. P.; Flanders, W. Dana; Kramer, Michael R.; Endeshaw, Tekola; Zerihun, Mulat; Melaku, Birhanu; Sata, Eshetu; Gessesse, Demelash; Teferi, Tesfaye; Tadesse, Zerihun; Guadie, Birhan; King, Jonathan D.; Emerson, Paul M.; Callahan, Elizabeth K.; Moe, Christine L.; Clasen, Thomas F.

2016-01-01

This study developed and validated a model for predicting the probability that communities in Amhara Region, Ethiopia, have low sanitation coverage, based on environmental and sociodemographic conditions. Community sanitation coverage was measured between 2011 and 2014 through trachoma control program evaluation surveys. Information on environmental and sociodemographic conditions was obtained from available data sources and linked with community data using a geographic information system. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of low community sanitation coverage (< 20% versus ≥ 20%). The selected model was geographically and temporally validated. Model-predicted probabilities of low community sanitation coverage were mapped. Among 1,502 communities, 344 (22.90%) had coverage below 20%. The selected model included measures for high topsoil gravel content, an indicator for low-lying land, population density, altitude, and rainfall and had reasonable predictive discrimination (area under the curve = 0.75, 95% confidence interval = 0.72, 0.78). Measures of soil stability were strongly associated with low community sanitation coverage, controlling for community wealth, and other factors. A model using available environmental and sociodemographic data predicted low community sanitation coverage for areas across Amhara Region with fair discrimination. This approach could assist sanitation programs and trachoma control programs, scaling up or in hyperendemic areas, to target vulnerable areas with additional activities or alternate technologies. PMID:27430547

Regional variations in the diversity and predicted metabolic potential of benthic prokaryotes in coastal northern Zhejiang, East China Sea

PubMed Central

Wang, Kai; Ye, Xiansen; Zhang, Huajun; Chen, Heping; Zhang, Demin; Liu, Lian

2016-01-01

Knowledge about the drivers of benthic prokaryotic diversity and metabolic potential in interconnected coastal sediments at regional scales is limited. We collected surface sediments across six zones covering ~200 km in coastal northern Zhejiang, East China Sea and combined 16 S rRNA gene sequencing, community-level metabolic prediction, and sediment physicochemical measurements to investigate variations in prokaryotic diversity and metabolic gene composition with geographic distance and under local environmental conditions. Geographic distance was the most influential factor in prokaryotic β-diversity compared with major environmental drivers, including temperature, sediment texture, acid-volatile sulfide, and water depth, but a large unexplained variation in community composition suggested the potential effects of unmeasured abiotic/biotic factors and stochastic processes. Moreover, prokaryotic assemblages showed a biogeographic provincialism across the zones. The predicted metabolic gene composition similarly shifted as taxonomic composition did. Acid-volatile sulfide was strongly correlated with variation in metabolic gene composition. The enrichments in the relative abundance of sulfate-reducing bacteria and genes relevant with dissimilatory sulfate reduction were observed and predicted, respectively, in the Yushan area. These results provide insights into the relative importance of geographic distance and environmental condition in driving benthic prokaryotic diversity in coastal areas and predict specific biogeochemically-relevant genes for future studies. PMID:27917954

Factors of empowerment for women in recovery from substance use.

PubMed

Hunter, Bronwyn A; Jason, Leonard A; Keys, Christopher B

2013-03-01

Empowerment is an interdisciplinary construct heavily grounded in the theories of community psychology. Although empowerment has a strong theoretical foundation, few context-specific quantitative measures have been designed to evaluate empowerment for specific populations. The present study explored the factor structure of a modified empowerment scale with a cross-sectional sample of 296 women in recovery from substance use who lived in recovery homes located throughout the United States. Results from an exploratory factor analysis identified three factors of psychological empowerment which were closely related to previous conceptualizations of psychological empowerment: self-perception, resource knowledge and participation. Further analyses demonstrated a hierarchical relationship among the three factors, with resource knowledge predicting participation when controlling for self-perception. Finally, a correlational analysis demonstrated the initial construct validity of each factor, as each factor of empowerment was significantly and positively related to self-esteem. Implications for the application of psychological empowerment theory and research are discussed.

Factors of Empowerment for Women in Recovery from Substance Use

PubMed Central

Hunter, Bronwyn A.; Jason, Leonard A.; Keys, Christopher B.

2014-01-01

Empowerment is an interdisciplinary construct heavily grounded in the theories of community psychology. Although empowerment has a strong theoretical foundation, few context-specific quantitative measures have been designed to evaluate empowerment for specific populations. The present study explored the factor structure of a modified empowerment scale with a cross-sectional sample of 296 women in recovery from substance use who lived in recovery homes located throughout the United States. Results from an exploratory factor analysis identified three factors of psychological empowerment which were closely related to previous conceptualizations of psychological empowerment: self perception, resource knowledge and participation. Further analyses demonstrated a hierarchical relationship among the three factors, with resource knowledge predicting participation when controlling for self-perception. Finally, a correlational analysis demonstrated the initial construct validity of each factor, as each factor of empowerment was significantly and positively related to self-esteem. Implications for the application of psychological empowerment theory and research are discussed. PMID:22392193

Comparing statistical and process-based flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing rain regimes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Müller, M. F.; Thompson, S. E.

2016-02-01

The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drivers of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by frequent wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are favored over statistical models.

A Multivariate Twin Study of the DSM-IV Criteria for Antisocial Personality Disorder

PubMed Central

Kendler, Kenneth S.; Aggen, Steven H.; Patrick, Christopher J.

2012-01-01

BACKGROUND Many assessment instruments for psychopathy are multidimensional, suggesting that distinguishable factors are needed to effectively capture variation in this personality domain. However, no prior study has examined the factor structure of the DSM-IV criteria for antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). METHODS Self-report questionnaire items reflecting all A criteria for DSM-IV ASPD were available from 4,291 twins (including both members of 1,647 pairs) from the Virginia Adult Study of Psychiatric and Substance Use Disorders. Exploratory factor analysis and twin model fitting were performed using, respectively, Mplus and Mx. RESULTS Phenotypic factor analysis produced evidence for 2 correlated factors: aggressive-disregard and disinhibition. The best-fitting multivariate twin model included two genetic and one unique environmental common factor, along with criteria-specific genetic and environmental effects. The two genetic factors closely resembled the phenotypic factors and varied in their prediction of a range of relevant criterion variables. Scores on the genetic aggressive-disregard factor score were more strongly associated with risk for conduct disorder, early and heavy alcohol use, and low educational status, whereas scores on the genetic disinhibition factor score were more strongly associated with younger age, novelty seeking, and major depression. CONCLUSION From a genetic perspective, the DSM-IV criteria for ASPD do not reflect a single dimension of liability but rather are influenced by two dimensions of genetic risk reflecting aggressive-disregard and disinhibition. The phenotypic structure of the ASPD criteria results largely from genetic and not from environmental influences. PMID:21762879

Managing knowledge business intelligence: A cognitive analytic approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Surbakti, Herison; Ta'a, Azman

2017-10-01

The purpose of this paper is to identify and analyze integration of Knowledge Management (KM) and Business Intelligence (BI) in order to achieve competitive edge in context of intellectual capital. Methodology includes review of literatures and analyzes the interviews data from managers in corporate sector and models established by different authors. BI technologies have strong association with process of KM for attaining competitive advantage. KM have strong influence from human and social factors and turn them to the most valuable assets with efficient system run under BI tactics and technologies. However, the term of predictive analytics is based on the field of BI. Extracting tacit knowledge is a big challenge to be used as a new source for BI to use in analyzing. The advanced approach of the analytic methods that address the diversity of data corpus - structured and unstructured - required a cognitive approach to provide estimative results and to yield actionable descriptive, predictive and prescriptive results. This is a big challenge nowadays, and this paper aims to elaborate detail in this initial work.

The evolution of sex roles in birds is related to adult sex ratio.

PubMed

Liker, András; Freckleton, Robert P; Székely, Tamás

2013-01-01

Sex-role reversal represents a formidable challenge for evolutionary biologists, since it is not clear which ecological, life-history or social factors facilitated conventional sex roles (female care and male-male competition for mates) to be reversed (male care and female-female competition). Classic theories suggested ecological or life-history predictors of role reversal, but most studies failed to support these hypotheses. Recent theory however predicts that sex-role reversal should be driven by male-biased adult sex ratio (ASR). Here we test this prediction for the first time using phylogenetic comparative analyses. Consistent with theory, both mating system and parental care are strongly related to ASR in shorebirds: conventional sex roles are exhibited by species with female-biased ASR, whereas sex-role reversal is associated with male-biased ASR. These results suggest that social environment has a strong influence on breeding systems and therefore revealing the causes of ASR variation in wild populations is essential for understanding sex role evolution.

Subjective well-being and national satisfaction: findings from a worldwide survey.

PubMed

Morrison, Mike; Tay, Louis; Diener, Ed

2011-02-01

We examined the relationship between satisfaction with one's country (national satisfaction) and subjective well-being utilizing data from a representative worldwide poll. National satisfaction was a strong positive predictor of individual-level life satisfaction, and this relationship was moderated by household income, household conveniences, residential mobility, country gross domestic product per capita, and region (Western vs. non-Western country). When individuals are impoverished or more bound to their culture and surroundings, national satisfaction more strongly predicts life satisfaction. In contrast, reverse trends were found in analyses predicting life satisfaction from satisfaction in other domains (health, standard of living, and job). These patterns suggest that people are more likely to use proximate factors to judge life satisfaction where conditions are salutary, or individualism is salient, but are more likely to use perceived societal success to judge life satisfaction where life conditions are difficult, or collectivism predominates. Our findings invite new research directions and can inform quality-of-life therapies.

The additive and interactive effects of parenting and temperament in predicting adjustment problems of children of divorce.

PubMed

Lengua, L J; Wolchik, S A; Sandler, I N; West, S G

2000-06-01

Investigated the interaction between parenting and temperament in predicting adjustment problems in children of divorce. The study utilized a sample of 231 mothers and children, 9 to 12 years old, who had experienced divorce within the previous 2 years. Both mothers' and children's reports on parenting, temperament, and adjustment variables were obtained and combined to create cross-reporter measures of the variables. Parenting and temperament were directly and independently related to outcomes consistent with an additive model of their effects. Significant interactions indicated that parental rejection was more strongly related to adjustment problems for children low in positive emotionality, and inconsistent discipline was more strongly related to adjustment problems for children high in impulsivity. These findings suggest that children who are high in impulsivity may be at greater risk for developing problems, whereas positive emotionality may operate as a protective factor, decreasing the risk of adjustment problems in response to negative parenting.

[Effects of finitude salience and social value intention on emotional responses of "kandoh" (the state of being emotionally moved) associated with sadness].

PubMed

Kato, Juri; Murata, Koji

2013-06-01

Two experiments investigated whether emotional responses of "kandoh" (the state of being emotionally moved) associated with sadness were facilitated by the factors of "finitude salience" and "social value intention". We predicted that participants who strongly intended social value would be more strongly moved by movies that portrayed social values than participants who weakly intended social value. Furthermore we predicted that this difference would increase in the finitude salience condition. In both experiments, participants assigned to the finitude salience condition subtracted the years of the person's birth from death. In the control condition, participants performed the same task in the form of simple numerical calculations. Then all participants watched a movie that portrayed family love and death in Experiment 1 (N = 88). We used another movie that described friendship and separation in Experiment 2 (N = 82). The results supported the two hypotheses that social value intention facilitated emotional responses of "kandoh" and this effect increased under finitude salience.

Effects of Cerebral Blood Flow and Vessel Conditions on Speech Recognition in Patients With Postlingual Adult Cochlear Implant: Predictable Factors for the Efficacy of Cochlear Implant.

PubMed

Ishino, Takashi; Ragaee, Mahmoud Ali; Maruhashi, Tatsuya; Kajikawa, Masato; Higashi, Yukihito; Sonoyama, Toru; Takeno, Sachio; Hirakawa, Katsuhiro

Cochlear implantation (CI) has been the most successful procedure for restoring hearing in a patient with severe and profound hearing loss. However, possibly owing to the variable brain functions of each patient, its performance and the associated patient satisfaction are widely variable. The authors hypothesize that peripheral and cerebral circulation can be assessed by noninvasive and globally available methods, yielding superior presurgical predictive factors of the performance of CI in adult patients with postlingual hearing loss who are scheduled to undergo CI. Twenty-two adult patients with cochlear implants for postlingual hearing loss were evaluated using Doppler sonography measurement of the cervical arteries (reflecting cerebral blood flow), flow-mediated dilation (FMD; reflecting the condition of cerebral arteries), and their pre-/post-CI best score on a monosyllabic discrimination test (pre-/post-CI best monosyllabic discrimination [BMD] score). Correlations between post-CI BMD score and the other factors were examined using univariate analysis and stepwise multiple linear regression analysis. The prediction factors were calculated by examining the receiver-operating characteristic curve between post-CI BMD score and the significantly positively correlated factors. Age and duration of deafness had a moderately negative correlation. The mean velocity of the internal carotid arteries and FMD had a moderate-to-strong positive correlation with the post-CI BMD score in univariate analysis. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis revealed that only FMD was significantly positively correlated with post-CI BMD score. Analysis of the receiver-operating characteristic curve showed that a FMD cutoff score of 1.8 significantly predicted post-CI BMD score. These data suggest that FMD is a convenient, noninvasive, and widely available tool for predicting the efficacy of cochlear implants. An FMD cutoff score of 1.8 could be a good index for determining whether patients will hear well with cochlear implants. It could also be used to predict whether cochlear implants will provide good speech recognition benefits to candidates, even if their speech discrimination is poor. This FMD index could become a useful predictive tool for candidates with poor speech discrimination to determine the efficacy of CI before surgery.

Using RSAT to scan genome sequences for transcription factor binding sites and cis-regulatory modules.

PubMed

Turatsinze, Jean-Valery; Thomas-Chollier, Morgane; Defrance, Matthieu; van Helden, Jacques

2008-01-01

This protocol shows how to detect putative cis-regulatory elements and regions enriched in such elements with the regulatory sequence analysis tools (RSAT) web server (http://rsat.ulb.ac.be/rsat/). The approach applies to known transcription factors, whose binding specificity is represented by position-specific scoring matrices, using the program matrix-scan. The detection of individual binding sites is known to return many false predictions. However, results can be strongly improved by estimating P value, and by searching for combinations of sites (homotypic and heterotypic models). We illustrate the detection of sites and enriched regions with a study case, the upstream sequence of the Drosophila melanogaster gene even-skipped. This protocol is also tested on random control sequences to evaluate the reliability of the predictions. Each task requires a few minutes of computation time on the server. The complete protocol can be executed in about one hour.

miR-185 is an independent prognosis factor and suppresses tumor metastasis in gastric cancer.

PubMed

Tan, Zhiqin; Jiang, Hao; Wu, Youhua; Xie, Liming; Dai, Wenxiang; Tang, Hailin; Tang, Sanyuan

2014-01-01

miR-185 has been identified as an important factor in several cancers such as breast cancer, ovarial cancer, and prostate cancer. However, its effect and prognostic value in gastric cancer are still poorly known. In this study, we found that the expression levels of miR-185 were strongly downregulated in gastric cancer and associated with clinical stage and the presence of lymph node metastases. Moreover, miR-185 might independently predict OS and RFS in gastric cancer. We further found that upregulation of miR-185 inhibited the proliferation and metastasis of gastric cancer cells in vitro and in vivo. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that the miR-185 is important for gastric cancer initiation and progression and holds promise as a prognostic biomarker to predict survival and relapse in gastric cancer. It is also a potential therapeutic tool to improve clinical outcomes in the above disease.

Social vulnerability and bullying in children with Asperger syndrome.

PubMed

Sofronoff, Kate; Dark, Elizabeth; Stone, Valerie

2011-05-01

Children with Asperger syndrome (AS) have IQ within the normal range but specific impairments in theory of mind, social interaction and communication skills. The majority receive education in mainstream schools and research suggests they are bullied more than typically developing peers. The current study aimed to evaluate factors that predict bullying for such children and also to examine a new measure, the Social Vulnerability Scale (SVS). One hundred and thirty three parents of children with AS completed the SVS and of these 92 parents completed both the SVS and questionnaires measuring anxiety, anger, behaviour problems, social skills and bullying. Regression analyses revealed that these variables together strongly predicted bullying, but that social vulnerability was the strongest predictor. Test-re-test and internal consistency analyses of the SVS demonstrated sound psychometric properties and factor analyses revealed two sub-scales: gullibility and credulity. Limitations of the study are acknowledged and suggestions for future research discussed.

A review of clinical and histological parameters associated with contralateral neck metastases in oral squamous cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

Fan, Song; Tang, Qiong-lan; Lin, Ying-jin; Chen, Wei-liang; Li, Jin-song; Huang, Zhi-quan; Yang, Zhao-hui; Wang, You-yuan; Zhang, Da-ming; Wang, Hui-jing; Dias-Ribeiro, Eduardo; Cai, Qiang; Wang, Lei

2011-01-01

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) has a high incidence of cervical micrometastases and sometimes metastasizes contralaterally because of the rich lymphatic intercommunications relative to submucosal plexus of oral cavity that freely communicate across the midline, and it can facilitate the spread of neoplastic cells to any area of the neck consequently. Clinical and histopathologic factors continue to provide predictive information to contralateral neck metastases (CLNM) in OSCC, which determine prophylactic and adjuvant treatments for an individual patient. This review describes the predictive value of clinical-histopathologic factors, which relate to primary tumor and cervical lymph nodes, and surgical dissection and adjuvant treatments. In addition, the indications for elective contralateral neck dissection and adjuvant radiotherapy (aRT) and strategies for follow-up are offered, which is strongly focused by clinicians to prevent later CLNM and poor prognosis subsequently. PMID:22010576

Measuring Student Effort and Engagement in an Introductory Physics Course

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bonham, Scott

2007-11-01

Multiple scales reflecting student effort were developed using factor and scale analysis on data from an introductory physics course. This data included interactions with an on-line homework system. One of the scales displays many characteristics of a metric of the individual level of engagement in the course. This scale is shown to be a good predictor of performance on class exams and the Force Concept Inventory (FCI). Furthermore, normalized learning gains on the FCI are well predicted by this scale while pre-instructional FCI scores provide no additional predictive ability, agreeing with observations by Richard Hake. This scale also correlates strongly with epistemological beliefs that learning is related to effort and is the responsibility of the student. The factors that enter into this scale, writing and mastering expert-like problem-solving, are consistent with this being a measure of individual levels of class engagement.

Verification of a SEU model for advanced 1-micron CMOS structures using heavy ions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cable, J. S.; Carter, J. R.; Witteles, A. A.

1986-01-01

Modeling and test results are reported for 1 micron CMOS circuits. Analytical predictions are correlated with experimental data, and sensitivities to process and design variations are discussed. Unique features involved in predicting the SEU performance of these devices are described. The results show that the critical charge for upset exhibits a strong dependence on pulse width for very fast devices, and upset predictions must factor in the pulse shape. Acceptable SEU error rates can be achieved for a 1 micron bulk CMOS process. A thin retrograde well provides complete SEU immunity for N channel hits at normal incidence angle. Source interconnect resistance can be important parameter in determining upset rates, and Cf-252 testing can be a valuable tool for cost-effective SEU testing.

Improving a two-equation eddy-viscosity turbulence model to predict the aerodynamic performance of thick wind turbine airfoils

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bangga, Galih; Kusumadewi, Tri; Hutomo, Go; Sabila, Ahmad; Syawitri, Taurista; Setiadi, Herlambang; Faisal, Muhamad; Wiranegara, Raditya; Hendranata, Yongki; Lastomo, Dwi; Putra, Louis; Kristiadi, Stefanus

2018-03-01

Numerical simulations for relatively thick airfoils are carried out in the present studies. An attempt to improve the accuracy of the numerical predictions is done by adjusting the turbulent viscosity of the eddy-viscosity Menter Shear-Stress-Transport (SST) model. The modification involves the addition of a damping factor on the wall-bounded flows incorporating the ratio of the turbulent kinetic energy to its specific dissipation rate for separation detection. The results are compared with available experimental data and CFD simulations using the original Menter SST model. The present model improves the lift polar prediction even though the stall angle is still overestimated. The improvement is caused by the better prediction of separated flow under a strong adverse pressure gradient. The results show that the Reynolds stresses are damped near the wall causing variation of the logarithmic velocity profiles.

Animal versus human oral drug bioavailability: Do they correlate?

PubMed Central

Musther, Helen; Olivares-Morales, Andrés; Hatley, Oliver J.D.; Liu, Bo; Rostami Hodjegan, Amin

2014-01-01

Oral bioavailability is a key consideration in development of drug products, and the use of preclinical species in predicting bioavailability in human has long been debated. In order to clarify whether any correlation between human and animal bioavailability exist, an extensive analysis of the published literature data was conducted. Due to the complex nature of bioavailability calculations inclusion criteria were applied to ensure integrity of the data. A database of 184 compounds was assembled. Linear regression for the reported compounds indicated no strong or predictive correlations to human data for all species, individually and combined. The lack of correlation in this extended dataset highlights that animal bioavailability is not quantitatively predictive of bioavailability in human. Although qualitative (high/low bioavailability) indications might be possible, models taking into account species-specific factors that may affect bioavailability are recommended for developing quantitative prediction. PMID:23988844

Sexual conflict over parental care promotes the evolution of sex differences in care and the ability to care

PubMed Central

McNamara, John M.; Wolf, Max

2015-01-01

Strong asymmetries in parental care, with one sex providing more care than the other, are widespread across the animal kingdom. At present, two factors are thought to ultimately cause sex differences in care: certainty of parentage and sexual selection. By contrast, we here show that the coevolution of care and the ability to care can result in strong asymmetries in both the ability to care and the level of care, even in the absence of these factors. While the coevolution of care and the ability to care does not predict which sex evolves to care more than the other, once other factors give rise to even the slightest differences in the cost and benefits of care between the sexes (e.g. differences in certainty in parentage), a clear directionality emerges; the sex with the lower cost or higher benefit of care evolves both to be more able to care and to provide much higher levels of care than the other sex. Our findings suggest that the coevolution of levels of care and the ability to care may be a key factor underlying the evolution of sex differences in care. PMID:25694618

Rumination, anxiety, depressive symptoms and subsequent depression in adolescents at risk for psychopathology: a longitudinal cohort study

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A ruminative style of responding to low mood is associated with subsequent high depressive symptoms and depressive disorder in children, adolescents and adults. Scores on self-report rumination scales correlate strongly with scores on anxiety and depression symptom scales. This may confound any associations between rumination and subsequent depression. Methods Our sample comprised 658 healthy adolescents at elevated risk for psychopathology. This study applied ordinal item (non-linear) factor analysis to pooled items from three self-report questionnaires to explore whether there were separate, but correlated, constructs of rumination, depression and anxiety. It then tested whether rumination independently predicted depressive disorder and depressive symptoms over the subsequent 12 months, after adjusting for confounding variables. Results We identified a single rumination factor, which was correlated with factors representing cognitive symptoms of depression, somatic symptoms of depression and anxiety symptoms; and one factor representing adaptive responses to low mood. Elevated rumination scores predicted onset of depressive disorders over the subsequent year (p = 0.035), and levels of depressive symptoms 12 months later (p < 0.0005), after adjustment for prior levels of depressive and anxiety symptoms. Conclusion High rumination predicts onset of depressive disorder in healthy adolescents. Therapy that reduces rumination and increases distraction/problem-solving may reduce onset and relapse rates of depression. PMID:24103296

Can Religious Beliefs be a Protective Factor for Suicidal Behavior? A Decision Tree Analysis in a Mid-Sized City in Iran, 2013.

PubMed

Baneshi, Mohammad Reza; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Zolala, Farzaneh; Nakhaee, Nouzar; Jalali, Maryam; Tabrizi, Reza; Akbari, Maryam

2017-04-01

This study aimed to assess using tree-based models the impact of different dimensions of religion and other risk factors on suicide attempts in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Three hundred patients who attempted suicide and 300 age- and sex-matched patient attendants with other types of disease who referred to Kerman Afzalipour Hospital were recruited for this study following a convenience sampling. Religiosity was assessed by the Duke University Religion Index. A tree-based model was constructed using the Gini Index as the homogeneity criterion. A complementary discrimination analysis was also applied. Variables contributing to the construction of the tree were stressful life events, mental disorder, family support, and religious belief. Strong religious belief was a protective factor for those with a low number of stressful life events and those with a high mental disorder score; 72 % of those who formed these two groups had not attempted suicide. Moreover, 63 % of those with a high number of stressful life events, strong family support, strong problem-solving skills, and a low mental disorder score were less likely to attempt suicide. The significance of four other variables, GHQ, problem-coping skills, friend support, and neuroticism, was revealed in the discrimination analysis. Religious beliefs seem to be an independent factor that can predict risk for suicidal behavior. Based on the decision tree, religious beliefs among people with a high number of stressful life events might not be a dissuading factor. Such subjects need more family support and problem-solving skills.

Ionization Efficiency of Doubly Charged Ions Formed from Polyprotic Acids in Electrospray Negative Mode

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liigand, Piia; Kaupmees, Karl; Kruve, Anneli

2016-07-01

The ability of polyprotic acids to give doubly charged ions in negative mode electrospray was studied and related to physicochemical properties of the acids via linear discriminant analysis (LDA). It was discovered that the compound has to be strongly acidic (low p K a1 and p K a2) and to have high hydrophobicity (log P ow) to become multiply charged. Ability to give multiply charged ions in ESI/MS cannot be directly predicted from the solution phase acidities. Therefore, for the first time, a quantitative model to predict the charge state of the analyte in ESI/MS is proposed and validated for small anions. Also, a model to predict ionization efficiencies of these analytes was developed. Results indicate that acidity of the analyte, its octanol-water partition coefficient, and charge delocalization are important factors that influence ionization efficiencies as well as charge states of the analytes. The pH of the solvent was also found to be an important factor influencing the ionization efficiency of doubly charged ions.

The Perception of Materials through Oral Sensation

PubMed Central

Howes, Philip D.; Wongsriruksa, Supinya; Laughlin, Zoe; Witchel, Harry J.; Miodownik, Mark

2014-01-01

This paper presents the results of a multimodal study of oral perception conducted with a set of material samples made from metals, polymers and woods, in which both the somatosensory and taste factors were examined. A multidimensional scaling analysis coupled with subjective attribute ratings was performed to assess these factors both qualitatively and quantitatively. The perceptual somatosensory factors of warmth, hardness and roughness dominated over the basic taste factors, and roughness was observed to be a less significant sensation compared to touch-only experiments. The perceptual somatosensory ratings were compared directly with physical property data in order to assess the correlation between the perceived properties and measured physical properties. In each case, a strong correlation was observed, suggesting that physical properties may be useful in industrial design for predicting oral perception. PMID:25136793

Is Directivity Still Effective in a PSHA Framework?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Spagnuolo, E.; Herrero, A.; Cultrera, G.

2008-12-01

Source rupture parameters, like directivity, modulate the energy release causing variations in the radiated signal amplitude. Thus they affect the empirical predictive equations and as a consequence the seismic hazard assessment. Classical probabilistic hazard evaluations, e.g. Cornell (1968), use very simple predictive equations only based on magnitude and distance which do not account for variables concerning the rupture process. However nowadays, a few predictive equations (e.g. Somerville 1997, Spudich and Chiou 2008) take into account for rupture directivity. Also few implementations have been made in a PSHA framework (e.g. Convertito et al. 2006, Rowshandel 2006). In practice, these new empirical predictive models incorporate quantitatively the rupture propagation effects through the introduction of variables like rake, azimuth, rupture velocity and laterality. The contribution of all these variables is summarized in corrective factors derived from measuring differences between the real data and the predicted ones Therefore, it's possible to keep the older computation, making use of a simple predictive model, and besides, to incorporate the directivity effect through the corrective factors. Any single supplementary variable meaning a new integral in the parametric space. However the difficulty consists of the constraints on parameter distribution functions. We present the preliminary result for ad hoc distributions (Gaussian, uniform distributions) in order to test the impact of incorporating directivity into PSHA models. We demonstrate that incorporating directivity in PSHA by means of the new predictive equations may lead to strong percentage variations in the hazard assessment.

Predicting influenza vaccination uptake among health care workers: what are the key motivators?

PubMed

Corace, Kimberly; Prematunge, Chatura; McCarthy, Anne; Nair, Rama C; Roth, Virginia; Hayes, Thomas; Suh, Kathryn N; Balfour, Louise; Garber, Gary

2013-08-01

Health care worker (HCW) vaccination was critical to protecting HCW during the H1N1 pandemic. However, vaccine uptake rates fell below recommended targets. This study examined motivators and barriers influencing HCW pH1N1 vaccination to identify modifiable factors that can improve influenza vaccine uptake. A cross-sectional survey was conducted at a large Canadian tertiary care hospital. HCW (N = 3,275) completed measures of demographics, vaccination history, influenza risk factors, and attitudes toward pH1N1 vaccination. Self-reported vaccination was verified with staff vaccination records. Of the total sample, 2,862 (87.4%) HCW received the pH1N1 vaccine. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to predict HCW vaccination. HCW attitudes toward vaccination significantly predicted vaccination, even after adjusting for demographics, vaccine history, and influenza risk factors. This model correctly predicted 95% (confidence interval [CI]: 0.93-0.96) of HCW vaccination. Key modifiable factors driving HCW vaccination include (1) desire to protect family members and patients, (2) belief that vaccination is important even if one is healthy, (3) confidence in vaccine safety, and (4) supervisor and physician encouragement. This research identified fundamental reasons why HCW get vaccinated and provides direction for future influenza vaccination programs. To enhance vaccine uptake, it is important to target HCW attitudes in influenza vaccine campaigns and create a culture of vaccine promotion in the workplace, including strong messaging from supervisors and physicians. Copyright © 2013 Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology, Inc. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Fibrinogen concentration and its role in CVD risk in black South Africans--effect of urbanisation.

PubMed

Pieters, Marlien; de Maat, Moniek P M; Jerling, Johann C; Hoekstra, Tiny; Kruger, Annamarie

2011-09-01

The aim of this study was to investigate correlates of fibrinogen concentration in black South Africans, as well as its association with cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk and whether urbanisation influences this association. A total of 1,006 rural and 1,004 urban black South Africans from the PURE study were cross-sectionally analysed. The association of fibrinogen with CVD risk was determined by investigating the association of fibrinogen with other CVD risk markers as well as with predicted CVD risk using the Reynolds Risk score. The rural group had a significantly higher fibrinogen concentration than the urban group, despite higher levels of risk factors and increased predicted CVD risk in the urban group. Increased levels of CVD risk factors were, however, still associated with increased fibrinogen concentration. Fibrinogen correlated significantly, but weakly, with overall predicted CVD risk. This correlation was stronger in the urban than in the rural group. Multiple regression analysis showed that a smaller percentage of the variance in fibrinogen is explained by the traditional CVD risk factors in the rural than in the urban group. In conclusion, fibrinogen is weakly associated with CVD risk (predicted overall risk as well with individual risk factors) in black South Africans, and is related to the degree of urbanisation. Increased fibrinogen concentration, in black South Africans, especially in rural areas, is largely unexplained, and likely not strongly correlated with traditional CVD-related lifestyle and pathophysiological processes. This does, however, not exclude the possibility that once increased, the fibrinogen concentration contributes to future development of CVD.

Predictive value of cognition for different domains of outcome in recent-onset schizophrenia.

PubMed

Holthausen, Esther A E; Wiersma, Durk; Cahn, Wiepke; Kahn, René S; Dingemans, Peter M; Schene, Aart H; van den Bosch, Robert J

2007-01-15

The aim of this study was to see whether and how cognition predicts outcome in recent-onset schizophrenia in a large range of domains such as course of illness, self-care, interpersonal functioning, vocational functioning and need for care. At inclusion, 115 recent-onset patients were tested on a cognitive battery and 103 patients participated in the follow-up 2 years after inclusion. Differences in outcome between cognitively normal and cognitively impaired patients were also analysed. Cognitive measures at inclusion did not predict number of relapses, activities of daily living and interpersonal functioning. Time in psychosis or in full remission, as well as need for care, were partly predicted by specific cognitive measures. Although statistically significant, the predictive value of cognition with regard to clinical outcome was limited. There was a significant difference between patients with and without cognitive deficits in competitive employment status and vocational functioning. The predictive value of cognition for different social outcome domains varies. It seems that cognition most strongly predicts work performance, where having a cognitive deficit, regardless of the nature of the deficit, acts as a rate-limiting factor.

Evidence for the Trait-Impulsivity Etiological Model in a Clinical Sample: Bifactor Structure and Its Relation to Impairment and Environmental Risk.

PubMed

Rodenacker, Klaas; Hautmann, Christopher; Görtz-Dorten, Anja; Döpfner, Manfred

2018-05-01

The trait-impulsivity etiological model assumes that a general factor (trait-impulsivity) underlies attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), oppositional defiant disorder (ODD), and other externalizing disorders. We investigated the plausibility of this assumption by testing the factor structure of ADHD and ODD in a bifactor framework for a clinical sample of 1420 children between 6 and 18 years of age (M = 9.99, SD = 3.34; 85% male). Further, the trait-impulsivity etiological model assumes that ODD emerges only if environmental risk factors are present. Our results support the validity of the trait-impulsivity etiological model, as they confirm that ADHD and ODD share a strong general factor of disruptive behavior (DB) in this clinical sample. Furthermore, unlike the subdimensions of ADHD, we found that the specific ODD factor explained as much true score variance as the general DB factor. This suggests that a common scale of ADHD and ODD may prove to be as important as a separate ODD subscale to assess externalizing problems in school-age children. However, all other subscales of ADHD may not explain sufficient true score variance once the impact of the general DB factor has been taken into consideration. In accordance with the trait-impulsivity model, we also showed that all factors, but predominantly the general factor and specific inattention factor, predicted parent-rated impairment, and that predominantly ODD and impulsivity are predicted by environmental risk factors.

Crew Interface Analysis: Selected Articles on Space Human Factors Research, 1987 - 1991

DTIC Science & Technology

1993-07-01

recognitions to that distractor ) suggest that the perceptual type of the graph has a strong representation in memory . We found that both training with... processing strategy. If my goal were to compare the value of variables or (possibly) to compare a trend, I would select a perceptual strategy. If...be needed to determine specific processing models for different questions using the perceptual strategy. In addition, predictions about the memory

[Predictive factors of depression in adolescents at school: the role of implicit theories of intelligence].

PubMed

Da Fonseca, D; Cury, F; Rufo, M; Poinso, F

2007-10-01

The aim of this study was to complete the identification of predictive factors of depression during adolescence. For some authors, depression is characterized by a style of attribution, which consists essentially in attributing most of the negative outcomes to internal, stable, and uncontrollable factors. It seems that these attributions depend essentially on the type of their beliefs and in particular, those concerning the nature of intelligence. These beliefs called "implicit theories of intelligence", are the entity theory of intelligence and the incremental theory of intelligence. The entity theory of intelligence corresponds to the belief according to which intelligence is the expression of a relatively stable, fixed, and noncontrollable feature, and which we cannot change. In contrast, the incremental theory corresponds to the belief according to which intelligence is a controllable quality, which we can develop through effort and work. Several studies have demonstrated that the adolescents who consider intelligence as a malleable quality explain their bad results by internal, unstable, and controllable factors. Conversely, students who consider intelligence as a fixed capacity tend to strongly attribute their failure to internal, stable, and uncontrollable factors. We have consequently formulated the hypothesis according to which the entity theory should be a predictive factor of depression. We have also tested the fact that anxiety should be a mediating factor within the relation between the entity theory and depression. The sample was composed of 424 adolescents. Using different questionnaires, we measured implicit theories of the intelligence (TIDI), self-esteem (EES), anxiety (STAI-Form Y-B) and depression (CDI). Multiple regression analyses demonstrated that the entity theory of intelligence positively predicts depression. Self-esteem negatively predicts anxiety and depression. Moreover, anxiety is a mediator of the relation between self-esteem and depression, on one hand, and the relation between the entity theory of intelligence and depression, on the other. Finally, the effect of the entity theory of intelligence appears to be modulated by the level of self-esteem. This study explains the mechanisms by which the implicit theories of intelligence engender anxiety and depression. Furthermore, this approach provides interesting perspectives in the prevention and management of adolescents presenting depression.

Accuracy of travel time distribution (TTD) models as affected by TTD complexity, observation errors, and model and tracer selection

USGS Publications Warehouse

Green, Christopher T.; Zhang, Yong; Jurgens, Bryant C.; Starn, J. Jeffrey; Landon, Matthew K.

2014-01-01

Analytical models of the travel time distribution (TTD) from a source area to a sample location are often used to estimate groundwater ages and solute concentration trends. The accuracies of these models are not well known for geologically complex aquifers. In this study, synthetic datasets were used to quantify the accuracy of four analytical TTD models as affected by TTD complexity, observation errors, model selection, and tracer selection. Synthetic TTDs and tracer data were generated from existing numerical models with complex hydrofacies distributions for one public-supply well and 14 monitoring wells in the Central Valley, California. Analytical TTD models were calibrated to synthetic tracer data, and prediction errors were determined for estimates of TTDs and conservative tracer (NO3−) concentrations. Analytical models included a new, scale-dependent dispersivity model (SDM) for two-dimensional transport from the watertable to a well, and three other established analytical models. The relative influence of the error sources (TTD complexity, observation error, model selection, and tracer selection) depended on the type of prediction. Geological complexity gave rise to complex TTDs in monitoring wells that strongly affected errors of the estimated TTDs. However, prediction errors for NO3− and median age depended more on tracer concentration errors. The SDM tended to give the most accurate estimates of the vertical velocity and other predictions, although TTD model selection had minor effects overall. Adding tracers improved predictions if the new tracers had different input histories. Studies using TTD models should focus on the factors that most strongly affect the desired predictions.

The Driver Behaviour Questionnaire as accident predictor; A methodological re-meta-analysis.

PubMed

Af Wåhlberg, A E; Barraclough, P; Freeman, J

2015-12-01

The Manchester Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) is the most commonly used self-report tool in traffic safety research and applied settings. It has been claimed that the violation factor of this instrument predicts accident involvement, which was supported by a previous meta-analysis. However, that analysis did not test for methodological effects, or include unpublished results. The present study re-analysed studies on prediction of accident involvement from DBQ factors, including lapses, and many unpublished effects. Tests of various types of dissemination bias and common method variance were undertaken. Outlier analysis showed that some effects were probably not reliable data, but excluding them did not change the results. For correlations between violations and crashes, tendencies for published effects to be larger than unpublished ones and for effects to decrease over time were observed, but were not significant. Also, using the mean of accidents as proxy for effect indicated that studies where effects for violations are not reported have smaller effect sizes. These differences indicate dissemination bias. Studies using self-reported accidents as dependent variables had much larger effects than those using recorded accident data. Also, zero-order correlations were larger than partial correlations controlled for exposure. Similarly, violations/accidents effects were strong only when there was also a strong correlation between accidents and exposure. Overall, the true effect is probably very close to zero (r<.07) for violations versus traffic accident involvement, depending upon which tendencies are controlled for. Methodological factors and dissemination bias have inflated the published effect sizes of the DBQ. Strong evidence of various artefactual effects is apparent. A greater level of care should be taken if the DBQ continues to be used in traffic safety research. Also, validation of self-reports should be more comprehensive in the future, taking into account the possibility of common method variance. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and National Safety Council. All rights reserved.

Radiative heat transfer in strongly forward scattering media using the discrete ordinates method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Granate, Pedro; Coelho, Pedro J.; Roger, Maxime

2016-03-01

The discrete ordinates method (DOM) is widely used to solve the radiative transfer equation, often yielding satisfactory results. However, in the presence of strongly forward scattering media, this method does not generally conserve the scattering energy and the phase function asymmetry factor. Because of this, the normalization of the phase function has been proposed to guarantee that the scattering energy and the asymmetry factor are conserved. Various authors have used different normalization techniques. Three of these are compared in the present work, along with two other methods, one based on the finite volume method (FVM) and another one based on the spherical harmonics discrete ordinates method (SHDOM). In addition, the approximation of the Henyey-Greenstein phase function by a different one is investigated as an alternative to the phase function normalization. The approximate phase function is given by the sum of a Dirac delta function, which accounts for the forward scattering peak, and a smoother scaled phase function. In this study, these techniques are applied to three scalar radiative transfer test cases, namely a three-dimensional cubic domain with a purely scattering medium, an axisymmetric cylindrical enclosure containing an emitting-absorbing-scattering medium, and a three-dimensional transient problem with collimated irradiation. The present results show that accurate predictions are achieved for strongly forward scattering media when the phase function is normalized in such a way that both the scattered energy and the phase function asymmetry factor are conserved. The normalization of the phase function may be avoided using the FVM or the SHDOM to evaluate the in-scattering term of the radiative transfer equation. Both methods yield results whose accuracy is similar to that obtained using the DOM along with normalization of the phase function. Very satisfactory predictions were also achieved using the delta-M phase function, while the delta-Eddington phase function and the transport approximation may perform poorly.

Postnatal BMI changes in children with different birthweights: A trial study for detecting early predictive factors for pediatric obesity

PubMed Central

Nakagawa, Yuichi; Nakanishi, Toshiki; Satake, Eiichiro; Matsushita, Rie; Saegusa, Hirokazu; Kubota, Akira; Natsume, Hiromune; Shibata, Yukinobu; Fujisawa, Yasuko

2018-01-01

Abstract. The purpose of this study was to clarify the degree of early postnatal growth by birthweight and detect early predictive factors for pediatric obesity. Body mass index (BMI) and degree of obesity were examined in children in the fourth year of elementary school and second year of junior high school. Their BMI at birth and three years of age were also examined. Based on birthweight, participants were divided into three groups: low (< 2500 g), middle (2500–3500 g), and high (> 3500 g). Furthermore, according to the degree of obesity, they were divided into two groups: obese (20% ≤) and non-obese (20% >). The change of BMI from birth to three years of age (ΔBMI) showed a strong inverse relationship with birthweight and was significantly different among the three birthweight groups (low > middle > high). The ΔBMI and BMI at three years of age were higher in obese than in non-obese children and showed significant positive correlations with the degree of obesity. Early postnatal growth might be determined by birthweight and was higher in obese than in non-obese children. The ΔBMI from birth to three years of age and BMI at age of three years could be predictive factors for pediatric obesity. PMID:29403153

HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1 polymorphisms and risk of idiopathic membranous nephropathy.

PubMed

Bullich, Gemma; Ballarín, José; Oliver, Artur; Ayasreh, Nadia; Silva, Irene; Santín, Sheila; Díaz-Encarnación, Montserrat M; Torra, Roser; Ars, Elisabet

2014-02-01

Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within HLA complex class II HLA-DQ α-chain 1 (HLA-DQA1) and M-type phospholipase A2 receptor (PLA2R1) genes were identified as strong risk factors for idiopathic membranous nephropathy (IMN) development in a recent genome-wide association study. Copy number variants (CNVs) within the Fc gamma receptor III (FCGR3) locus have been associated with several autoimmune diseases, but their role in IMN has not been studied. This study aimed to validate the association of HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1 risk alleles with IMN in a Spanish cohort, test the putative association of FCGR3A and FCGR3B CNVs with IMN, and assess the use of these genetic factors to predict the clinical outcome of the disease. A Spanish cohort of 89 IMN patients and 286 matched controls without nephropathy was recruited between October of 2009 and July of 2012. Case-control studies for SNPs within HLA-DQA1 (rs2187668) and PLA2R1 (rs4664308) genes and CNVs for FCGR3A and FCGR3B genes were performed. The contribution of these polymorphisms to predict clinical outcome and renal function decline was analyzed. This study validated the association of these HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1 SNPs with IMN in a Spanish cohort and its increased risk when combining both risk genotypes. No significant association was found between FCGR3 CNVs and IMN. These results revealed that HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1 genotype combination adjusted for baseline proteinuria strongly predicted response to immunosuppressive therapy. HLA-DQA1 genotype adjusted for proteinuria was also linked with renal function decline. This study confirms that HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1 genotypes are risk factors for IMN, whereas no association was identified for FCGR3 CNVs. This study provides, for the first time, evidence of the contribution of these HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1 polymorphisms in predicting IMN response to immunosuppressors and disease progression. Future studies are needed to validate and identify prognostic markers.

Prediction of breast cancer risk by genetic risk factors, overall and by hormone receptor status.

PubMed

Hüsing, Anika; Canzian, Federico; Beckmann, Lars; Garcia-Closas, Montserrat; Diver, W Ryan; Thun, Michael J; Berg, Christine D; Hoover, Robert N; Ziegler, Regina G; Figueroa, Jonine D; Isaacs, Claudine; Olsen, Anja; Viallon, Vivian; Boeing, Heiner; Masala, Giovanna; Trichopoulos, Dimitrios; Peeters, Petra H M; Lund, Eiliv; Ardanaz, Eva; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Lenner, Per; Kolonel, Laurence N; Stram, Daniel O; Le Marchand, Loïc; McCarty, Catherine A; Buring, Julie E; Lee, I-Min; Zhang, Shumin; Lindström, Sara; Hankinson, Susan E; Riboli, Elio; Hunter, David J; Henderson, Brian E; Chanock, Stephen J; Haiman, Christopher A; Kraft, Peter; Kaaks, Rudolf

2012-09-01

There is increasing interest in adding common genetic variants identified through genome wide association studies (GWAS) to breast cancer risk prediction models. First results from such models showed modest benefits in terms of risk discrimination. Heterogeneity of breast cancer as defined by hormone-receptor status has not been considered in this context. In this study we investigated the predictive capacity of 32 GWAS-detected common variants for breast cancer risk, alone and in combination with classical risk factors, and for tumours with different hormone receptor status. Within the Breast and Prostate Cancer Cohort Consortium, we analysed 6009 invasive breast cancer cases and 7827 matched controls of European ancestry, with data on classical breast cancer risk factors and 32 common gene variants identified through GWAS. Discriminatory ability with respect to breast cancer of specific hormone receptor-status was assessed with the age adjusted and cohort-adjusted concordance statistic (AUROC(a)). Absolute risk scores were calculated with external reference data. Integrated discrimination improvement was used to measure improvements in risk prediction. We found a small but steady increase in discriminatory ability with increasing numbers of genetic variants included in the model (difference in AUROC(a) going from 2.7% to 4%). Discriminatory ability for all models varied strongly by hormone receptor status. Adding information on common polymorphisms provides small but statistically significant improvements in the quality of breast cancer risk prediction models. We consistently observed better performance for receptor-positive cases, but the gain in discriminatory quality is not sufficient for clinical application.

Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; De Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen

2016-07-01

Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction could be proven. Thus, the study contributes to the overall understanding of drivers of drought impacts, appropriateness of drought indices selection for specific applications, and drought risk assessment.

Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women.

PubMed

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

2016-03-01

Studies on the health effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) call for an understanding of past and present human exposure. Time-resolved mechanistic models may supplement information on concentrations in individuals obtained from measurements and/or statistical approaches if they can be shown to reproduce empirical data. Here, we evaluated the capability of one such mechanistic model to reproduce measured PCB concentrations in individual Norwegian women. We also assessed individual life-course concentrations. Concentrations of four PCB congeners in pregnant (n = 310, sampled in 2007-2009) and postmenopausal (n = 244, 2005) women were compared with person-specific predictions obtained using CoZMoMAN, an emission-based environmental fate and human food-chain bioaccumulation model. Person-specific predictions were also made using statistical regression models including dietary and lifestyle variables and concentrations. CoZMoMAN accurately reproduced medians and ranges of measured concentrations in the two study groups. Furthermore, rank correlations between measurements and predictions from both CoZMoMAN and regression analyses were strong (Spearman's r > 0.67). Precision in quartile assignments from predictions was strong overall as evaluated by weighted Cohen's kappa (> 0.6). Simulations indicated large inter-individual differences in concentrations experienced in the past. The mechanistic model reproduced all measurements of PCB concentrations within a factor of 10, and subject ranking and quartile assignments were overall largely consistent, although they were weak within each study group. Contamination histories for individuals predicted by CoZMoMAN revealed variation between study subjects, particularly in the timing of peak concentrations. Mechanistic models can provide individual PCB exposure metrics that could serve as valuable supplements to measurements.

Implicit theories of a desire for fame.

PubMed

Maltby, John; Day, Liz; Giles, David; Gillett, Raphael; Quick, Marianne; Langcaster-James, Honey; Linley, P Alex

2008-05-01

The aim of the present studies was to generate implicit theories of a desire for fame among the general population. In Study 1, we were able to develop a nine-factor analytic model of conceptions of the desire to be famous that initially comprised nine separate factors; ambition, meaning derived through comparison with others, psychologically vulnerable, attention seeking, conceitedness, social access, altruistic, positive affect, and glamour. Analysis that sought to examine replicability among these factors suggested that three factors (altruistic, positive affect, and glamour) neither display factor congruence nor display adequate internal reliability. A second study examined the validity of these factors in predicting profiles of individuals who may desire fame. The findings from this study suggested that two of the nine factors (positive affect and altruism) could not be considered strong factors within the model. Overall, the findings suggest that implicit theories of a desire for fame comprise six factors. The discussion focuses on how an implicit model of a desire for fame might progress into formal theories of a desire for fame.

Evaluation of MEGAN predicted biogenic isoprene emissions at urban locations in Southeast Texas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kota, Sri Harsha; Schade, Gunnar; Estes, Mark; Boyer, Doug; Ying, Qi

2015-06-01

Summertime isoprene emissions in the Houston area predicted by the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosol from Nature (MEGAN) version 2.1 during the 2006 TexAQS study were evaluated using a source-oriented Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Model. Predicted daytime isoprene concentrations at nine surface sites operated by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ) were significantly higher than local observations when biogenic emissions dominate the total isoprene concentrations, with mean normalized bias (MNB) ranges from 2.0 to 7.7 and mean normalized error (MNE) ranges from 2.2 to 7.7. Predicted upper air isoprene and its first generation oxidation products of methacrolein (MACR) and methyl vinyl ketone (MVK) were also significantly higher (MNB = 8.6, MNE = 9.1) than observations made onboard of NOAA's WP-3 airplane, which flew over the urban area. Over-prediction of isoprene and its oxidation products both at the surface and the upper air strongly suggests that biogenic isoprene emissions in the Houston area are significantly overestimated. Reducing the emission rates by approximately 3/4 was necessary to reduce the error between predictions and observations. Comparison of gridded leaf area index (LAI), plant functional type (PFT) and gridded isoprene emission factor (EF) used in MEGAN modeling with estimates of the same factors from a field survey north of downtown Houston showed that the isoprene over-prediction is likely caused by the combined effects of a large overestimation of the gridded EF in urban Houston and an underestimation of urban LAI. Nevertheless, predicted ozone concentrations in this region were not significantly affected by the isoprene over-predictions, while predicted isoprene SOA and total SOA concentrations can be higher by as much as 50% and 13% using the higher isoprene emission rates, respectively.

What Predicts Exercise Maintenance and Well-Being? Examining The Influence of Health-Related Psychographic Factors and Social Media Communication.

PubMed

Zhou, Xin; Krishnan, Archana

2018-01-26

Habitual exercising is an important precursor to both physical and psychological well-being. There is, thus, a strong interest in identifying key factors that can best motivate individuals to sustain regular exercise regimen. In addition to the importance of psychographic factors, social media use may act as external motivator by allowing users to interact and communicate about exercise. In this study, we examined the influence of health consciousness, health-oriented beliefs, intrinsic motivation, as willingness to communicate about health on social media, social media activity on exercise, and online social support on exercise maintenance and well-being on a sample of 532 American adults. Employing structural equation modeling, we found that health-oriented beliefs mediated the effect of health consciousness on intrinsic motivation which in turn was a significant predictor of exercise maintenance. Exercise maintenance significantly predicted both physical and psychological well-being. Extrinsic motivators, as measured by willingness to communicate about health on social media, social media activity on exercise, and online social support did not however significantly influence exercise maintenance. These findings have implications for the design and implementation of exercise-promoting interventions by identifying underlying factors that influence exercise maintenance.

Depressive personality disorder, dysthymia, and their relationship to perfectionism.

PubMed

Huprich, Steven K; Porcerelli, John; Keaschuk, Rachel; Binienda, Juliann; Engle, Benjamin

2008-01-01

This paper reports the results of two studies in a nonclinical (n=105) and primary care outpatient sample (n=110), in which Depressive Personality Disorder (DPD), Dysthymia, and depression were assessed for their distinctive relationship with perfectionism. Results from both studies found that self-reported DPD, Dysthymia, and depressive symptoms were all intercorrelated, and that DPD, Dysthymia, and depressive symptoms were correlated with three dimensions of perfectionism-Concern over Mistakes, Doubts about Actions, and Parental Criticism. In the nonclinical sample, variance in measures of DPD was predicted by measures of perfectionism after controlling for depression and Dysthymia symptoms. A similar pattern of findings was observed in the primary care sample. This relationship with perfectionism did not occur when Dysthymia or depressive symptoms were predicted. Nevertheless, much of the variance in measures of DPD, Dysthymia, and depressive symptoms is associated with each other and not perfectionism. It is concluded that a common factor or set of factors underlies these disorders, but that DPD may be more strongly related to perfectionism than Dysthymia and depression. As a common factor(s) is identified, measures of DPD and Dysthymia may be refined, thereby increasing the discriminant validity of their measures.

Nucleon and Elastic and Transition Form Factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Segovia, Jorge; Cloët, Ian C.; Roberts, Craig D.; Schmidt, Sebastian M.

2014-12-01

We present a unified study of nucleon and elastic and transition form factors, and compare predictions made using a framework built upon a Faddeev equation kernel and interaction vertices that possess QCD-like momentum dependence with results obtained using a symmetry-preserving treatment of a vector vector contact-interaction. The comparison emphasises that experiments are sensitive to the momentum dependence of the running couplings and masses in the strong interaction sector of the Standard Model and highlights that the key to describing hadron properties is a veracious expression of dynamical chiral symmetry breaking in the bound-state problem. Amongst the results we describe, the following are of particular interest: possesses a zero at Q 2 = 9.5 GeV2; any change in the interaction which shifts a zero in the proton ratio to larger Q 2 relocates a zero in to smaller Q 2; there is likely a value of momentum transfer above which ; and the presence of strong diquark correlations within the nucleon is sufficient to understand empirical extractions of the flavour-separated form factors. Regarding the -baryon, we find that, inter alia: the electric monopole form factor exhibits a zero; the electric quadrupole form factor is negative, large in magnitude, and sensitive to the nature and strength of correlations in the Faddeev amplitude; and the magnetic octupole form factor is negative so long as rest-frame P- and D-wave correlations are included. In connection with the transition, the momentum-dependence of the magnetic transition form factor, , matches that of once the momentum transfer is high enough to pierce the meson-cloud; and the electric quadrupole ratio is a keen measure of diquark and orbital angular momentum correlations, the zero in which is obscured by meson-cloud effects on the domain currently accessible to experiment. Importantly, within each framework, identical propagators and vertices are sufficient to describe all properties discussed herein. Our analysis and predictions should therefore serve as motivation for measurement of elastic and transition form factors involving the nucleon and its resonances at high photon virtualities using modern electron-beam facilities.

From RHIC to LHC: Lessons on the QGP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heinz, Ulrich

2011-10-01

Recent data from heavy-ion collisions at RHIC and LHC, together with significant advances in theory, have allowed us to make significant first steps in proceeding from a qualitative understanding of high energy collision dynamics to a quantitative characterization of the transport properties of the hot and dense QCD matter created in these collisions. The almost perfectly liquid nature of the Quark-Gluon Plasma (QGP) created at RHIC has recently also been confirmed at the much higher LHC energies, and we can now constrain the specific QGP shear viscosity (η / s) QGP to within a factor of 2.5 of its conjectured lower quantum bound. Viscous hydrodynamics, coupled to a microscopic hadron cascade at late times, has proven to be an extremely successful and highly predictive model for the QGP evolution at RHIC and LHC. The experimental discovery of higher order harmonic flow coefficients and their theoretically predicted differential sensitivity to shear viscosity promises additional gains in precision by about a factor 5 in (η / s) QGP for the very near future. The observed modification of jets and suppression of high-pT hadrons confirms the picture of the QGP as a strongly coupled colored liquid, and recent LHC data yield strong constraints on parton energy loss models, putting significant strain on some theoretical approaches, tuned to RHIC data, that are based on leading-order perturbative QCD. Thermal photon radiation provides important cross-checks on the early stages of dynamical evolution models and constrains the initial QGP temperature, but the recently measured strong photon elliptic flow challenges our present understanding of photon emission rates in the hadronic phase. Recent progress in developing a complete theoretical model for all stages of the QGP fireball expansion, from strong fluctuating gluon fields at its beginning to final hadronic freeze-out, and remaining challenges will be discussed. Work supported by DOE (grants DE-SC0004286 and DE-SC0004104 (JET Collaboration)).

The Environmental Reward Observation Scale (EROS): development, validity, and reliability.

PubMed

Armento, Maria E A; Hopko, Derek R

2007-06-01

Researchers acknowledge a strong association between the frequency and duration of environmental reward and affective mood states, particularly in relation to the etiology, assessment, and treatment of depression. Given behavioral theories that outline environmental reward as a strong mediator of affect and the unavailability of an efficient, reliable, and valid self-report measure of environmental reward, we developed the Environmental Reward Observation Scale (EROS) and examined its psychometric properties. In Experiment 1, exploratory factor analysis supported a unidimensional 10-item measure with strong internal consistency and test-retest reliability. When administered to a replication sample, confirmatory factor analysis suggested an excellent fit to the 1-factor model and convergent/discriminant validity data supported the construct validity of the EROS. In Experiment 2, further support for the convergent validity of the EROS was obtained via moderate correlations with the Pleasant Events Schedule (PES; MacPhillamy & Lewinsohn, 1976). In Experiment 3, hierarchical regression supported the ecological validity of the EROS toward predicting daily diary reports of time spent in highly rewarding behaviors and activities. Above and beyond variance accounted for by depressive symptoms (BDI), the EROS was associated with significant incremental variance in accounting for time spent in both low and high reward behaviors. The EROS may represent a brief, reliable and valid measure of environmental reward that may improve the psychological assessment of negative mood states such as clinical depression.

The buffering effect of relationship satisfaction on emotional distress in couples

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Marital distress and depression frequently co-occur, and partnership quality is associated with depressive symptoms and mental disorders in both men and women. One aim of this study was to investigate the contribution of a set of risk factors for emotional distress among men and women in couples, with a special focus on satisfaction with partner relationship. The most important aim was to investigate the extent to which high relationship satisfaction in couples acts as a buffer against stressful events. Methods Pregnant women and their husbands (n = 62,956 couples) enrolled in the Norwegian Mother and Child Cohort Study completed a questionnaire with questions about emotional distress, relationship satisfaction, and other risk factors. Twelve potential risk factors were included in the analyses, including relationship satisfaction, demographic characteristics, and somatic diseases in men and women. Associations between the predictor variables and emotional distress were estimated by multiple linear regression analysis. Cross-spousal effects, in which data reported by one of the spouses predicted emotional distress in the other, were also investigated. Possible interaction effects between certain risk factors and self-reported and partner's relationship satisfaction were tested and further explored with regression analyses in subsamples stratified by relationship satisfaction scores. Results The unique effects of relationship satisfaction were of similar sizes for both men and women: substantial for self-reported (β = -0.23 and β = -0.28, respectively) and weak for partner-reported satisfaction (β = -0.04 and β = -0.02, respectively). Other relatively strong risk factors were somatic disease, first-time motherhood, and unemployment. Self-reported as well as partner-reported relationship satisfaction appeared to strongly buffer the effects of a number of stressors. Conclusions Partner relationship dissatisfaction is strongly associated with emotional distress in men and women. Good partner relationship, both as perceived by the individual him(her)self and by the spouse, quite strongly moderates adverse effects of various types of emotional strain. PMID:22264243

Defining physicians' readiness to screen and manage intimate partner violence in Greek primary care settings.

PubMed

Papadakaki, Maria; Prokopiadou, Dimitra; Petridou, Eleni; Kogevinas, Manolis; Lionis, Christos

2012-06-01

The current article aims to translate the PREMIS (Physician Readiness to Manage Intimate Partner Violence) survey into the Greek language and test its validity and reliability in a sample of primary care physicians. The validation study was conducted in 2010 and involved all the general practitioners serving two adjacent prefectures of Greece (n = 80). Maximum-likelihood factor analysis (MLF) was used to extract key survey factors. The instrument was further assessed for the following psychometric properties: (a) scale reliability, (b) item-specific reliability, (c) test-retest reliability, (d) scale construct validity, and (e) internal predictive validity. The MLF analysis of 23 opinion items revealed a seven-factor solution (preparation, constraint, workplace issues, screening, self-efficacy, alcohol/drugs, victim understanding), which was statistically sound (p = .293). Most of the newly derived scales displayed satisfactory internal consistency (α ≥ .60), high item-specific reliability, strong construct, and internal predictive validity (F = 2.82; p = .004), and high repeatability when retested with 20 individuals (intraclass correlation coefficient [ICC] > .70). The tool was found appropriate to facilitate the identification of competence deficits and the evaluation of training initiatives.

Coherent Backscattering in the Cross-Polarized Channel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mischenko, Michael I.; Mackowski, Daniel W.

2011-01-01

We analyze the asymptotic behavior of the cross-polarized enhancement factor in the framework of the standard low-packing-density theory of coherent backscattering by discrete random media composed of spherically symmetric particles. It is shown that if the particles are strongly absorbing or if the smallest optical dimension of the particulate medium (i.e., the optical thickness of a plane-parallel slab or the optical diameter of a spherically symmetric volume) approaches zero, then the cross-polarized enhancement factor tends to its upper-limit value 2. This theoretical prediction is illustrated using direct computer solutions of the Maxwell equations for spherical volumes of discrete random medium.

Psychometric properties of Frustration Discomfort Scale in a Turkish sample.

PubMed

Ozer, Bilge Uzun; Demir, Ayhan; Harrington, Neil

2012-08-01

The present study assessed the psychometric properties of the Frustration Discomfort Scale for Turkish college students. The Frustration Discomfort Scale (FDS), Procrastination Assessment Scale-Student, and Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale were administered to a sample of 171 (98 women, 73 men) Turkish college students. The results of the confirmatory factor analysis yielded fit index values demonstrating viability of the four-dimensional solution as in the original. Findings also revealed that, as predicted, the Discomfort Intolerance subscale of Turkish FDS was most strongly correlated with procrastination. Overall results provided evidence for the factor validity and reliability of the Turkish version of the scale for use in a Turkish population.

Factors predicting desired autonomy in medical decisions: Risk-taking and gambling behaviors

PubMed Central

Fortune, Erica E; Shotwell, Jessica J; Buccellato, Kiara; Moran, Erin

2016-01-01

This study investigated factors that influence patients’ desired level of autonomy in medical decisions. Analyses included previously supported demographic variables in addition to risk-taking and gambling behaviors, which exhibit a strong relationship with overall health and decision-making, but have not been investigated in conjunction with medical autonomy. Participants (N = 203) completed measures on Amazon’s Mechanical Turk, including two measures of autonomy. Two hierarchical regressions revealed that the predictors explained a significant amount of variance for both measures, but the contribution of predictor variables was incongruent between models. Possible causes for this incongruence and implications for patient–physician interactions are discussed. PMID:28070406

From prediction error to incentive salience: mesolimbic computation of reward motivation.

PubMed

Berridge, Kent C

2012-04-01

Reward contains separable psychological components of learning, incentive motivation and pleasure. Most computational models have focused only on the learning component of reward, but the motivational component is equally important in reward circuitry, and even more directly controls behavior. Modeling the motivational component requires recognition of additional control factors besides learning. Here I discuss how mesocorticolimbic mechanisms generate the motivation component of incentive salience. Incentive salience takes Pavlovian learning and memory as one input and as an equally important input takes neurobiological state factors (e.g. drug states, appetite states, satiety states) that can vary independently of learning. Neurobiological state changes can produce unlearned fluctuations or even reversals in the ability of a previously learned reward cue to trigger motivation. Such fluctuations in cue-triggered motivation can dramatically depart from all previously learned values about the associated reward outcome. Thus, one consequence of the difference between incentive salience and learning can be to decouple cue-triggered motivation of the moment from previously learned values of how good the associated reward has been in the past. Another consequence can be to produce irrationally strong motivation urges that are not justified by any memories of previous reward values (and without distorting associative predictions of future reward value). Such irrationally strong motivation may be especially problematic in addiction. To understand these phenomena, future models of mesocorticolimbic reward function should address the neurobiological state factors that participate to control generation of incentive salience. © 2012 The Author. European Journal of Neuroscience © 2012 Federation of European Neuroscience Societies and Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Social isolation, vital exhaustion, and incident heart failure: findings from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

PubMed

Cené, Crystal W; Loehr, Laura; Lin, Feng-Chang; Hammond, Wizdom Powell; Foraker, Randi E; Rose, Kathryn; Mosley, Thomas; Corbie-Smith, Giselle

2012-07-01

Prospective studies have shown that social isolation (i.e. lack of social contacts) predicts incident coronary heart disease (CHD), but it is unclear whether it predicts incident heart failure (HF) and what factors might mediate this association. HF patients may be more susceptible to social isolation as they tend to be older and may have disrupted social relationships due to life course factors (e.g. retirement or bereavement). We prospectively examined whether individuals with higher vs. low social isolation have a higher incidence of HF and determined whether this association is mediated by vital exhaustion. We estimated incident HF hospitalization or death among 14 348 participants from Visit 2 (1990-1992) in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study using Cox proportional hazard models which were sequentially adjusted for age, race/study community, gender, current smoking, alcohol use, and co-morbidities. We conducted mediation analyses according to the Baron and Kenny method. After a median follow-up of 16.9 person-years, 1727 (13.0%) incident HF events occurred. The adjusted hazard of incident HF was greater for those in the higher vs. low social isolation risk group (hazard ratio 1.21, 95% confidence interval 1.08-1.35). Our data suggest that vital exhaustion strongly mediates the association between higher social isolation and incident HF (the percentage change in beta coefficient for higher vs. low social isolation groups after adjusting for vital exhaustion was 36%). These data suggest that greater social isolation is an independent risk factor for incident HF, and this association appears to be strongly mediated by vital exhaustion.

Preoperative predictive factors for gallbladder cholesterol polyp diagnosed after laparoscopic cholecystectomy for polypoid lesions of gallbladder

PubMed Central

Lee, Hyojin; Park, Inseok; Cho, Hyunjin; Gwak, Geumhee; Yang, Keunho; Bae, Byung-Noe; Kim, Hong-Ju; Kim, Young Duk

2016-01-01

Backgrounds/Aims We investigated patients' clinical and radiological data to determine preoperative factors that predict cholesterol gallbladder (GB) polyps of large size, which can be helpful for decision on further diagnostic tools. Methods In this study, we retrospectively analyzed 126 patients who underwent laparoscopic cholecystectomy for GB polyps >10 mm diagnosed preoperatively by abdominal ultrasonography between February 2002 and February 2016 in Department of Surgery, Sanggye Paik Hospital. Patients were divided into non-cholesterol polyps group and cholesterol polyps group, based on the postoperative pathologic diagnosis. Clinical and radiological data, such as gender, age, body weight, height, body mass index (BMI), laboratory findings, size, number and shape of the polypoid lesions, and presence of the concurrent GB stone were compared between the two groups. Results Of the 126 cases, 73 had cholesterol polyps (57.9%) and 53 cases were non-cholesterol polyps (42.1%). The younger age (<48.5 years), size of polyp <13.25 mm and multiple polyps were independent predictive variables for cholesterol polyps, with odd ratios (OR) of 2.352 (p=0.045), 5.429 (p<0.001) and 0.472 (p<0.001), respectively. Conclusions Age, size and polyp number were used to predict cholesterol GB polyp among polypoid lesions of the gallbladder >10 mm. For cases in which these factors are not applicable, it is strongly recommended to evaluate further diagnostic tools, such as computed tomography, endoscopic ultrasonography and tumor markers. PMID:28261697

Factors affecting first return to work following a compensable occupational back injury.

PubMed

Oleinick, A; Gluck, J V; Guire, K

1996-11-01

Occupational back injuries produced $27 billion in direct and indirect costs in 1988. Predictors of prolonged disability have generally been identified in selected clinical populations, but there have been few population-based studies using statewide registries from workers' compensation systems. This study uses a 1986 cohort of 8,628 Michigan workers with compensable back injuries followed to March 1, 1990. Cox proportional hazards analyses with nine categorical covariates identified factors predicting missed worktime for the first disability episode following the injury. The model distinguished factors affecting the acute (< or = 8 weeks) and chronic disability periods (> 8 weeks). The first disability episode following injury contains 69.6% of the missed worktime observed through follow-up. In the acute phase, which contributes 15.2% of first episode missed worktime, gender, age, number of dependents, industry (construction), occupation, and type of accident predict continued work disability. Marital status, weekly wage compensation rate, and establishment size do not. Beyond 8 weeks, age, establishment size and, to a lesser degree, wage compensation rate predict duration of work disability. Graphs show the predicted disability course for injured workers with specific covariate patterns. Future efforts to reduce missed worktime may require modifications in current clinical practice by patient age group and the development of new strategies to encourage small and medium-size employers to find ways to return their injured employees to work sooner. Recent federal statutes covering disabled workers will only partially correct the strong effect of employer establishment size.

Predicting Employment in the Mental Health Treatment Study: Do Client Factors Matter?

PubMed

Metcalfe, Justin D; Drake, Robert E; Bond, Gary R

2017-05-01

For people with psychiatric disabilities, demographic characteristics and measures of clinical status are often used to allocate scarce employment services. This study examined a battery of potential client predictors of competitive employment, testing the hypothesis that evidence-based supported employment would mitigate the negative effects of poor work history, uncontrolled symptoms, substance abuse, and other client factors. In a secondary analysis of 2055 unemployed Social Security Disability Insurance beneficiaries with schizophrenia or affective disorders, we examined 20 baseline client factors as predictors of competitive employment. The analysis used logistic regression to identify significant client predictors and then examined interactions between significant predictors and receipt of evidence-based supported employment. Work history was a strong predictor of employment, and other client measures (fewer years on disability rolls, Hispanic ethnicity, and fewer physical health problems) were modestly predictive. Evidence-based supported employment mitigated negative client factors, including poor work history. Participants with a poor work history benefitted from supported employment even more than those with a recent work experience. Evidence-based supported employment helps people with serious mental illness, especially those with poor job histories, to obtain competitive employment. Factors commonly considered barriers to employment, such as diagnosis, substance use, hospitalization history, and misconceptions about disability benefits, often have little or no impact on competitive employment outcomes.

Nature and nurture- genes and environment- predict onset and progression of macular degeneration.

PubMed

Sobrin, Lucia; Seddon, Johanna M

2014-05-01

Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a common cause of irreversible visual loss and the disease burden is rising world-wide as the population ages. Both environmental and genetic factors contribute to the development of this disease. Among environmental factors, smoking, obesity and dietary factors including antioxidants and dietary fat intake influence onset and progression of AMD. There are also several lines of evidence that link cardiovascular, immune and inflammatory biomarkers to AMD. The genetic etiology of AMD has been and continues to be an intense and fruitful area of investigation. Genome-wide association studies have revealed numerous common variants associated with AMD and sequencing is increasing our knowledge of how rare genetic variants strongly impact disease. Evidence for interactions between environmental, therapeutic and genetic factors is emerging and elucidating the mechanisms of this interplay remains a major challenge in the field. Genotype-phenotype associations are evolving. The knowledge of non-genetic, modifiable risk factors along with information about heritability and genetic risk variants for this disease acquired over the past 25 years have greatly improved patient management and our ability to predict which patients will develop or progress to advanced forms of AMD. Personalized medicine and individualized prevention and treatment strategies may become a reality in the near future. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Mutual diffusion of binary liquid mixtures containing methanol, ethanol, acetone, benzene, cyclohexane, toluene, and carbon tetrachloride

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Guevara-Carrion, Gabriela; Janzen, Tatjana; Muñoz-Muñoz, Y. Mauricio

Mutual diffusion coefficients of all 20 binary liquid mixtures that can be formed out of methanol, ethanol, acetone, benzene, cyclohexane, toluene, and carbon tetrachloride without a miscibility gap are studied at ambient conditions of temperature and pressure in the entire composition range. The considered mixtures show a varying mixing behavior from almost ideal to strongly non-ideal. Predictive molecular dynamics simulations employing the Green-Kubo formalism are carried out. Radial distribution functions are analyzed to gain an understanding of the liquid structure influencing the diffusion processes. It is shown that cluster formation in mixtures containing one alcoholic component has a significant impactmore » on the diffusion process. The estimation of the thermodynamic factor from experimental vapor-liquid equilibrium data is investigated, considering three excess Gibbs energy models, i.e., Wilson, NRTL, and UNIQUAC. It is found that the Wilson model yields the thermodynamic factor that best suits the simulation results for the prediction of the Fick diffusion coefficient. Four semi-empirical methods for the prediction of the self-diffusion coefficients and nine predictive equations for the Fick diffusion coefficient are assessed and it is found that methods based on local composition models are more reliable. Finally, the shear viscosity and thermal conductivity are predicted and in most cases favorably compared with experimental literature values.« less

Differential associations of affective temperaments and diagnosis of major affective disorders with suicidal behavior.

PubMed

Baldessarini, Ross J; Innamorati, Marco; Erbuto, Denise; Serafini, Gianluca; Fiorillo, Andrea; Amore, Mario; Girardi, Paolo; Pompili, Maurizio

2017-03-01

Affective temperaments are associated with suicidal risk, but their predictive value relative to diagnosis of major affective disorder is uncertain. We compared diagnoses, affective-temperament ratings (TEMPS-A), and other potential risk factors in 956 psychiatric inpatients, using bivariate analyses and multivariable logistic regression modeling for associations with suicidal status. Lifetime suicide-attempt rates were high (43.9% overall), ranking by diagnosis: bipolar-II (58.4%), major depressive (50.0%), bipolar-I (44.6%), other (38.0%), and psychotic (33.9%) disorders. TEMPS-A scores for depressive (dep), cyclothymic (cyc), irritable (irr), and anxious (anx) temperaments and their sum were strongly associated with suicidal risk; hyperthymic (hyp) temperament scores were inversely associated; and a composite measure (dep+cyc+irr+anx - hyp), even more strongly associated. The composite score was highly, independently associated with suicidal behavior (p<0.0001), as was female sex (p=0.0002), but older age and diagnosis of major affective disorder, much less (both p=0.02). Measures of affective temperament-types were independently and more strongly associated with lifetime suicide attempt than was diagnosis of a major affective disorder. However, in this hospitalized cohort, suicide rates were high across diagnoses, possibly limiting the predictive value of diagnosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A multivariate twin study of the DSM-IV criteria for antisocial personality disorder.

PubMed

Kendler, Kenneth S; Aggen, Steven H; Patrick, Christopher J

2012-02-01

Many assessment instruments for psychopathy are multidimensional, suggesting that distinguishable factors are needed to effectively capture variation in this personality domain. However, no prior study has examined the factor structure of the DSM-IV criteria for antisocial personality disorder (ASPD). Self-report questionnaire items reflecting all A criteria for DSM-IV ASPD were available from 4291 twins (including both members of 1647 pairs) from the Virginia Adult Study of Psychiatric and Substance Use Disorders. Exploratory factor analysis and twin model fitting were performed using, respectively, Mplus and Mx. Phenotypic factor analysis produced evidence for two correlated factors: aggressive-disregard and disinhibition. The best-fitting multivariate twin model included two genetic and one unique environmental common factor, along with criteria-specific genetic and environmental effects. The two genetic factors closely resembled the phenotypic factors and varied in their prediction of a range of relevant criterion variables. Scores on the genetic aggressive-disregard factor score were more strongly associated with risk for conduct disorder, early and heavy alcohol use, and low educational status, whereas scores on the genetic disinhibition factor score were more strongly associated with younger age, novelty seeking, and major depression. From a genetic perspective, the DSM-IV criteria for ASPD do not reflect a single dimension of liability but rather are influenced by two dimensions of genetic risk reflecting aggressive-disregard and disinhibition. The phenotypic structure of the ASPD criteria results largely from genetic and not from environmental influences. Copyright © 2012 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Factors promoting health-related quality of life in people with rheumatic diseases: a 12 month longitudinal study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Rheumatic diseases have a significant adverse impact on the individual from physical, mental and social aspects, resulting in a low health-related quality of life (HRQL). There is a lack of longitudinal studies on HRQL in people with rheumatic diseases that focus on factors promoting HRQL instead of risk factors. The aim of this study was to investigate the associations between suggested health promoting factors at baseline and outcome in HRQL at a 12 month follow-up in people with rheumatic diseases. Methods A longitudinal cohort study was conducted in 185 individuals with rheumatic diseases with questionnaires one week and 12 months after rehabilitation in a Swedish rheumatology clinic. HRQL was assessed by SF-36 together with suggested health factors. The associations between SF-36 subscales and the health factors were analysed by multivariable logistic regressions. Results Factors predicting better outcome in HRQL in one or several SF-36 subscales were being younger or middle-aged, feeling painless, having good sleep structure, feeling rested after sleep, performing low effort of exercise more than twice per week, having strong sense of coherence (SOC), emotional support and practical assistance, higher educational level and work capacity. The most important factors were having strong SOC, feeling rested after sleep, having work capacity, being younger or middle-aged, and having good sleep structure. Conclusions This study identified several factors that promoted a good outcome in HRQL to people with rheumatic diseases. These health factors could be important to address in clinical work with rheumatic diseases in order to optimise treatment strategies. PMID:21599884

Confinement of plasma along shaped open magnetic fields from the centrifugal force of supersonic plasma rotation.

PubMed

Teodorescu, C; Young, W C; Swan, G W S; Ellis, R F; Hassam, A B; Romero-Talamas, C A

2010-08-20

Interferometric density measurements in plasmas rotating in shaped, open magnetic fields demonstrate strong confinement of plasma parallel to the magnetic field, with density drops of more than a factor of 10. Taken together with spectroscopic measurements of supersonic E × B rotation of sonic Mach 2, these measurements are in agreement with ideal MHD theory which predicts large parallel pressure drops balanced by centrifugal forces in supersonically rotating plasmas.

The generality of working memory capacity: a latent-variable approach to verbal and visuospatial memory span and reasoning.

PubMed

Kane, Michael J; Hambrick, David Z; Tuholski, Stephen W; Wilhelm, Oliver; Payne, Tabitha W; Engle, Randall W

2004-06-01

A latent-variable study examined whether verbal and visuospatial working memory (WM) capacity measures reflect a primarily domain-general construct by testing 236 participants in 3 span tests each of verbal WM. visuospatial WM, verbal short-term memory (STM), and visuospatial STM. as well as in tests of verbal and spatial reasoning and general fluid intelligence (Gf). Confirmatory' factor analyses and structural equation models indicated that the WM tasks largely reflected a domain-general factor, whereas STM tasks, based on the same stimuli as the WM tasks, were much more domain specific. The WM construct was a strong predictor of Gf and a weaker predictor of domain-specific reasoning, and the reverse was true for the STM construct. The findings support a domain-general view of WM capacity, in which executive-attention processes drive the broad predictive utility of WM span measures, and domain-specific storage and rehearsal processes relate more strongly to domain-specific aspects of complex cognition. ((c) 2004 APA, all rights reserved)

Development and Validation of the Faceted Inventory of the Five-Factor Model (FI-FFM).

PubMed

Watson, David; Nus, Ericka; Wu, Kevin D

2017-06-01

The Faceted Inventory of the Five-Factor Model (FI-FFM) is a comprehensive hierarchical measure of personality. The FI-FFM was created across five phases of scale development. It includes five facets apiece for neuroticism, extraversion, and conscientiousness; four facets within agreeableness; and three facets for openness. We present reliability and validity data obtained from three samples. The FI-FFM scales are internally consistent and highly stable over 2 weeks (retest rs ranged from .64 to .82, median r = .77). They show strong convergent and discriminant validity vis-à-vis the NEO, the Big Five Inventory, and the Personality Inventory for DSM-5. Moreover, self-ratings on the scales show moderate to strong agreement with corresponding ratings made by informants ( rs ranged from .26 to .66, median r = .42). Finally, in joint analyses with the NEO Personality Inventory-3, the FI-FFM neuroticism facet scales display significant incremental validity in predicting indicators of internalizing psychopathology.

Plasmonic photonic crystals realized through DNA-programmable assembly

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Park, Daniel J.; Zhang, Chuan; Ku, Jessie C.

Three-dimensional dielectric photonic crystals have well-established enhanced light-matter interactions via high Q factors. Their plasmonic counterparts based on arrays of nanoparticles, however, have not been experimentally well explored owing to a lack of available synthetic routes for preparing them. However, such structures should facilitate these interactions based on the small mode volumes associated with plasmonic polarization. Herein we report strong light-plasmon interactions within 3D plasmonic photonic crystals that have lattice constants and nanoparticle diameters that can be independently controlled in the deep subwavelength size regime by using a DNA-programmable assembly technique. The strong coupling within such crystals is probed withmore » backscattering spectra, and the mode splitting (0.10 and 0.24 eV) is defined based on dispersion diagrams. Numerical simulations predict that the crystal photonic modes (Fabry-Perot modes) can be enhanced by coating the crystals with a silver layer, achieving moderate Q factors (~102) over the visible and near-infrared spectrum.« less

Plasmonic photonic crystals realized through DNA-programmable assembly

DOE PAGES

Park, Daniel J.; Zhang, Chuan; Ku, Jessie C.; ...

2014-12-29

Three-dimensional dielectric photonic crystals have well-established enhanced light-matter interactions via high Q factors. Their plasmonic counterparts based on arrays of nanoparticles, however, have not been experimentally well explored owing to a lack of available synthetic routes for preparing them. However, such structures should facilitate these interactions based on the small mode volumes associated with plasmonic polarization. Herein we report strong light-plasmon interactions within 3D plasmonic photonic crystals that have lattice constants and nanoparticle diameters that can be independently controlled in the deep subwavelength size regime by using a DNA-programmable assembly technique. The strong coupling within such crystals is probed withmore » backscattering spectra, and the mode splitting (0.10 and 0.24 eV) is defined based on dispersion diagrams. Numerical simulations predict that the crystal photonic modes (Fabry-Perot modes) can be enhanced by coating the crystals with a silver layer, achieving moderate Q factors (~102) over the visible and near-infrared spectrum.« less

Plasmonic photonic crystals realized through DNA-programmable assembly

PubMed Central

Park, Daniel J.; Zhang, Chuan; Ku, Jessie C.; Zhou, Yu; Schatz, George C.; Mirkin, Chad A.

2015-01-01

Three-dimensional dielectric photonic crystals have well-established enhanced light–matter interactions via high Q factors. Their plasmonic counterparts based on arrays of nanoparticles, however, have not been experimentally well explored owing to a lack of available synthetic routes for preparing them. However, such structures should facilitate these interactions based on the small mode volumes associated with plasmonic polarization. Herein we report strong light-plasmon interactions within 3D plasmonic photonic crystals that have lattice constants and nanoparticle diameters that can be independently controlled in the deep subwavelength size regime by using a DNA-programmable assembly technique. The strong coupling within such crystals is probed with backscattering spectra, and the mode splitting (0.10 and 0.24 eV) is defined based on dispersion diagrams. Numerical simulations predict that the crystal photonic modes (Fabry–Perot modes) can be enhanced by coating the crystals with a silver layer, achieving moderate Q factors (∼102) over the visible and near-infrared spectrum. PMID:25548175

Plasmonic photonic crystals realized through DNA-programmable assembly.

PubMed

Park, Daniel J; Zhang, Chuan; Ku, Jessie C; Zhou, Yu; Schatz, George C; Mirkin, Chad A

2015-01-27

Three-dimensional dielectric photonic crystals have well-established enhanced light-matter interactions via high Q factors. Their plasmonic counterparts based on arrays of nanoparticles, however, have not been experimentally well explored owing to a lack of available synthetic routes for preparing them. However, such structures should facilitate these interactions based on the small mode volumes associated with plasmonic polarization. Herein we report strong light-plasmon interactions within 3D plasmonic photonic crystals that have lattice constants and nanoparticle diameters that can be independently controlled in the deep subwavelength size regime by using a DNA-programmable assembly technique. The strong coupling within such crystals is probed with backscattering spectra, and the mode splitting (0.10 and 0.24 eV) is defined based on dispersion diagrams. Numerical simulations predict that the crystal photonic modes (Fabry-Perot modes) can be enhanced by coating the crystals with a silver layer, achieving moderate Q factors (∼10(2)) over the visible and near-infrared spectrum.

Attachment and social support in the prediction of psychopathology among young adults with and without a history of physical maltreatment.

PubMed

McLewin, Lise A; Muller, Robert T

2006-02-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the roles that social support and attachment play with regard to psychopathology among young adults with and without a history of physical maltreatment. Attachment was conceptualized in terms of the dimensions of view of self and view of other. Attachment and social support were examined individually and concurrently as protective factors. The sample consisted of 956 young adults, 294 of whom had a history of physical abuse. Individuals filled out a series of questionnaires inquiring about current attachment, social support, and psychopathology symptoms. A regression design was used, examining how well attachment and/or social support predicted current psychopathology. Results indicated that attachment security, particularly when characterized by a positive view of self, strongly predicted lower levels of psychopathology, irrespective of abuse status. Notably, view of self was a substantially larger predictor than was view of other or social support for individuals with and without a history of physical maltreatment. Among maltreatment subtypes, psychological abuse emerged as the largest predictor of psychopathology. The current study suggests that the attachment dimension of view of self is fundamental in predicting current psychopathology level, irrespective of abuse history. In addition, the subtype of psychological abuse deserves further investigation as a risk factor.

Characterization of air pollutant concentrations, fleet emission factors, and dispersion near a North Carolina interstate freeway across two seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha, Provat K.; Khlystov, Andrey; Snyder, Michelle G.; Grieshop, Andrew P.

2018-03-01

We present field measurement data and modeling of multiple traffic-related air pollutants during two seasons at a site adjoining Interstate 40, near Durham, North Carolina. We analyze spatial-temporal and seasonal trends and fleet-average pollutant emission factors and use our data to evaluate a line source dispersion model. Month-long measurement campaigns were performed in summer 2015 and winter 2016. Data were collected at a fixed near-road site located within 10 m from the highway edge, an upwind background site and, under favorable meteorological conditions, along downwind perpendicular transects. Measurements included the size distribution, chemical composition, and volatility of submicron particles, black carbon (BC), nitrogen oxides (NOx), meteorological conditions and traffic activity data. Results show strong seasonal and diurnal differences in spatial distribution of traffic sourced pollutants. A strong signature of vehicle emissions was observed within 100-150 m from the highway edge with significantly higher concentrations during morning. Substantially higher concentrations and less-sharp near-road gradients were observed in winter for many species. Season-specific fleet-average fuel-based emission factors for NO, NOx, BC, and particle number (PN) were derived based on up- and down-wind roadside measurements. The campaign-average NOx and PN emission factors were 20% and 300% higher in winter than summer, respectively. These results suggest that the combined effect of higher emissions and their slower downwind dispersion in winter dictate the observed higher downwind concentrations and wider highway influence zone in winter for several species. Finally, measurements of traffic data, emission factors, and pollutant concentrations were integrated to evaluate a line source dispersion model (R-LINE). The dispersion model captured the general trends in the spatial and temporal patterns in near-road concentrations. However, there was a tendency for the model to under-predict concentrations near the road in the mornings and over-predict concentrations in the evenings.

Psychosocial Factors of Dietitians' Intentions to Adopt Shared Decision Making Behaviours: A Cross-Sectional Survey

PubMed Central

Deschênes, Sarah-Maude; Gagnon, Marie-Pierre; Légaré, France; Lapointe, Annie; Turcotte, Stéphane; Desroches, Sophie

2013-01-01

Objectives While shared decision making (SDM) promotes health-related decisions that are informed, value-based and adhered to, few studies report on theory-based approaches to SDM adoption by healthcare professionals. We aimed to identify the factors influencing dietitians' intentions to adopt two SDM behaviours: 1) present dietary treatment options to patients and 2) help patients clarify their values and preferences. Methods We conducted a cross-sectional postal survey based on the Theory of Planned Behaviour among 428 randomly selected dietitians working in clinical practice across the Province of Quebec, Canada. We performed descriptive analyses and multiple regression analyses to determine the variables that explained the variance in intention to perform the behaviours. Results A total of 203 dietitians completed the questionnaire. Their ages were from 23 to 66 and they had been practising dietetics for 15.4±11.1 years (mean ± SD). On a scale from 1 to 7 (from strongly disagree to strongly agree), dietitians' intentions to present dietary treatment options and to clarify their patients' values and preferences were 5.00±1.14 and 5.68±0.74, respectively. Perceived behavioural control (β = 0.56, ρ<0.0001), subjective norm (β = 0.16, ρ<0.05), and moral norm (β = 0.22, ρ<0.0001), were the factors significantly predicting the intention to present dietary treatment options, while perceived behavioural control (β = 0.60, ρ<0.0001), attitude (β = 0.20, ρ<0.05), and professional norm (β = 0.22, ρ<0.001), significantly predicted the intention to help patients' clarify their values and preferences. Conclusion Our results showed that dietitians intend to adopt the two SDM behaviours studied. Factors influencing intention were different for each behaviour, except for perceived behavioural control which was common to both behaviours. Thus, perceived behavioural control could be a key factor in interventions aiming to encourage implementation of SDM by dietitians. PMID:23700484

Psychological Processes Mediate the Impact of Familial Risk, Social Circumstances and Life Events on Mental Health

PubMed Central

Kinderman, Peter; Schwannauer, Matthias; Pontin, Eleanor; Tai, Sara

2013-01-01

Background Despite widespread acceptance of the ‘biopsychosocial model’, the aetiology of mental health problems has provoked debate amongst researchers and practitioners for decades. The role of psychological factors in the development of mental health problems remains particularly contentious, and to date there has not been a large enough dataset to conduct the necessary multivariate analysis of whether psychological factors influence, or are influenced by, mental health. This study reports on the first empirical, multivariate, test of the relationships between the key elements of the biospychosocial model of mental ill-health. Methods and Findings Participants were 32,827 (age 18–85 years) self-selected respondents from the general population who completed an open-access online battery of questionnaires hosted by the BBC. An initial confirmatory factor analysis was performed to assess the adequacy of the proposed factor structure and the relationships between latent and measured variables. The predictive path model was then tested whereby the latent variables of psychological processes were positioned as mediating between the causal latent variables (biological, social and circumstantial) and the outcome latent variables of mental health problems and well-being. This revealed an excellent fit to the data, S-B χ2 (3199, N = 23,397) = 126654·8, p<·001; RCFI = ·97; RMSEA = ·04 (·038–·039). As hypothesised, a family history of mental health difficulties, social deprivation, and traumatic or abusive life-experiences all strongly predicted higher levels of anxiety and depression. However, these relationships were strongly mediated by psychological processes; specifically lack of adaptive coping, rumination and self-blame. Conclusion These results support a significant revision of the biopsychosocial model, as psychological processes determine the causal impact of biological, social, and circumstantial risk factors on mental health. This has clear implications for policy, education and clinical practice as psychological processes such as rumination and self-blame are amenable to evidence-based psychological therapies. PMID:24146890

Psychological processes mediate the impact of familial risk, social circumstances and life events on mental health.

PubMed

Kinderman, Peter; Schwannauer, Matthias; Pontin, Eleanor; Tai, Sara

2013-01-01

Despite widespread acceptance of the 'biopsychosocial model', the aetiology of mental health problems has provoked debate amongst researchers and practitioners for decades. The role of psychological factors in the development of mental health problems remains particularly contentious, and to date there has not been a large enough dataset to conduct the necessary multivariate analysis of whether psychological factors influence, or are influenced by, mental health. This study reports on the first empirical, multivariate, test of the relationships between the key elements of the biospychosocial model of mental ill-health. Participants were 32,827 (age 18-85 years) self-selected respondents from the general population who completed an open-access online battery of questionnaires hosted by the BBC. An initial confirmatory factor analysis was performed to assess the adequacy of the proposed factor structure and the relationships between latent and measured variables. The predictive path model was then tested whereby the latent variables of psychological processes were positioned as mediating between the causal latent variables (biological, social and circumstantial) and the outcome latent variables of mental health problems and well-being. This revealed an excellent fit to the data, S-B χ(2) (3199, N = 23,397) = 126654.8, p<.001; RCFI = .97; RMSEA = .04 (.038-.039). As hypothesised, a family history of mental health difficulties, social deprivation, and traumatic or abusive life-experiences all strongly predicted higher levels of anxiety and depression. However, these relationships were strongly mediated by psychological processes; specifically lack of adaptive coping, rumination and self-blame. These results support a significant revision of the biopsychosocial model, as psychological processes determine the causal impact of biological, social, and circumstantial risk factors on mental health. This has clear implications for policy, education and clinical practice as psychological processes such as rumination and self-blame are amenable to evidence-based psychological therapies.

The Sense of Incompleteness as a Motivator of Obsessive-Compulsive Symptoms: An Empirical Analysis of Concepts and Correlates

PubMed Central

Taylor, Steven; McKay, Dean; Crowe, Katherine B.; Abramowitz, Jonathan S.; Conelea, Christine A.; Calamari, John E.; Sica, Claudio

2014-01-01

Contemporary models of obsessive-compulsive disorder emphasize the importance of harm avoidance (HA) and related dysfunctional beliefs as motivators of obsessive-compulsive (OC) symptoms. Recently, there has been a resurgence of interest in Janet’s (1908) concept of incompleteness (INC) as another potentially important motivator. Contemporary investigators define INC as the sense that one’s actions, intentions, or experiences have not been properly achieved. Janet defined INC more broadly to include alexithymia, depersonalization, derealization, and impaired psychological mindedness. We conducted two studies to address four issues: (a) the clinical correlates of INC; (b) whether INC and HA are distinguishable constructs; (c) whether INC predicts OC symptoms after controlling for HA; and (d) the relative merits of broad versus narrow conceptualizations of INC. Study 1 was a meta-analysis of the clinical correlates of narrowly defined INC (16 studies, N=5,940). INC was correlated with all types of OC symptoms, and was more strongly correlated with OC symptoms than with general distress. Study 2 (N=534 nonclinical participants) showed that: (a) INC and HA were strongly correlated but factor analytically distinguishable; (b) INC statistically predicted all types of OC symptoms even after controlling for HA; and (c) narrow INC was most strongly correlated with OC symptoms whereas broad INC was most strongly correlated with general distress. Although the findings are limited by being correlational in nature, they support the hypothesis that INC, especially in its narrow form, is a motivator of OC symptoms. PMID:24491200

Strangeness production in deep inelastic muon nucleon scattering at 280 GeV

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arneodo, M.; Arvidson, A.; Aubert, J. J.; Badelek, B.; Beaufays, J.; Bee, C. P.; Benchouk, C.; Berghoff, G.; Bird, I.; Blum, D.; Böhm, E.; de Bouard, X.; Brasse, F. W.; Braun, H.; Broll, C.; Brown, S.; Brück, H.; Calen, H.; Chima, J. S.; Ciborowski, J.; Clifft, R.; Coignet, G.; Combley, F.; Coughlan, J.; D'Agostini, G.; Dahlgren, S.; Dengler, F.; Derado, I.; Dreyer, T.; Drees, J.; Düren, M.; Eckhardt, V.; Edwards, A.; Edwards, M.; Ernst, T.; Eszes, G.; Favier, J.; Ferrero, M. I.; Figiel, J.; Flauger, W.; Foster, J.; Gabathuler, E.; Gajewski, J.; Gamet, R.; Gayler, J.; Geddes, N.; Grafström, P.; Grard, F.; Haas, J.; Hagberg, E.; Hasert, F. J.; Hayman, P.; Heusse, P.; Jaffré, M.; Jacholkowska, A.; Janata, F.; Jancso, G.; Johnson, A. S.; Kabuss, E. M.; Kellner, G.; Korbel, V.; Krüger, J.; Kullander, S.; Landgraf, U.; Lanske, D.; Loken, J.; Long, K.; Maire, M.; Malecki, P.; Manz, A.; Maselli, S.; Mohr, W.; Montanet, F.; Montgomery, H. E.; Nagy, E.; Nassalski, J.; Norton, P. R.; Oakham, F. G.; Osborne, A. M.; Pascaud, C.; Pawlik, B.; Payre, P.; Peroni, C.; Peschel, H.; Pessard, H.; Pettingale, J.; Pietrzyk, B.; Pönsgen, B.; Pötsch, M.; Renton, P.; Ribarics, P.; Rith, K.; Rondio, E.; Sandacz, A.; Scheer, M.; Schlagböhmer, A.; Schiemann, H.; Schmifz, N.; Schneegans, M.; Scholz, M.; Schröder, T.; Schouten, M.; Schultze, K.; Sloan, T.; Stier, H. E.; Studt, M.; Taylor, G. N.; Thénard, J. M.; Thompson, J. C.; de La Torre, A.; Toth, J.; Urban, L.; Wallucks, W.; Whalley, M.; Wheeler, S.; Williams, W. S. C.; Wimpenny, S. J.; Windmolders, R.

1987-09-01

The production of strange particles has been studied in a 280 GeV muon nucleon scattering experiment with acceptance and particle identification over a large kinematical range. The data show that at large values of x Bj the interactions take place mostly on a u valence quark in agreement with the basic quarkparton model predictions. This feature results in a strong forward-backward asymmetry in the distribution of strangeness along the rapidity axis. The data are compatible with a strange to non-strange quark suppression factor of ≈0.3 and with a strong suppression of strange diquarks. The distributions of K + K - pairs show that the two kaons are preferentially produced at neighbouring values of rapidity.

Return to Work: A Cut-Off of FIM Gain with Montebello Rehabilitation Factor Score in Order to Identify Predictive Factors in Subjects with Acquired Brain Injury.

PubMed

Franceschini, Marco; Massimiani, Maria Pia; Paravati, Stefano; Agosti, Maurizio

2016-01-01

Return to work (RTW) for people with acquired brain injury (ABI) represents a main objective of rehabilitation: this work presents a strong correlation between personal well-being and quality of life. The aim of this study is to investigate the prognostic factors that can predict RTW after ABI (traumatic or non- traumatic aetiology) in patients without disorders of consciousness (e.g. coma, vegetative or minimally conscious state) at the beginning of their admission to rehabilitation. At the end of a 6-month follow-up after discharge, data were successfully collected in 69 patients. The rehabilitation effectiveness (functional Recovery) between admission and discharge was assessed by Functional Independent Measure (FIM) gain, through the Montebello Rehabilitation Factor Score (MRFS), which was obtained as follows: (discharge FIM-admission FIM)/(Maximum possible FIM-Admission FIM) x 100. The cut-off value (criterion) deriving from MRFS, which helped identify RTW patients, resulted in .659 (sn 88.9%; sp 52.4%). Considering the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the MRFS data, the multivariable binary logistic regression analysis presented 62.96% of correct RTW classification cases, 80.95% of non-RTW leading to an overall satisfactory predictability of 73.91%. The results of the present study suggest that occupational therapy intervention could modify cut-off in patients with an MFRS close to target at the end of an in-hospital rehabilitative program thus developing their capabilities and consequently surpassing cut-off itself.

Revisiting the false alarm in the 2014 El Niño prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shin, C. S.; Huang, B.

2016-12-01

In early 2014, most dynamic forecast models predicted a developing strong El Niño in the following winter. However, this forecast turned out to be a representative case of the false alarms since 2000. In this study, a set of CFSv2 ensemble seasonal reforecast is conducted to examine some possible causes of the unrealistic El Niño prediction in 2014. Zooming in on the NINO3.4 index, the ensemble-mean reforecast initialized in April 2014 predicted a very strong El Niño as the 1997-98 one with most ensemble members warmer than the observations. In contrast, the ensemble-mean reforecast initialized in January (July) 2014 predicted a slower growth (a decline) of the NINO3.4 index for 12-month lead (from November to the spring in 2015), with the spreads of the ensemble members enveloping the observations. Since the observed SST anomalies in equatorial eastern Pacific changed its polarity in late March from the coldest SST anomalies in February accompanied by strong easterly wind to warmer SST in mid April, the atmospheric and oceanic instantaneous initial states in early April 2014 may misrepresent these intra-seasonal variations, possibly resulting in warm bias in equatorial Pacific even at 0-month lead. Our experiments show that colder ocean surface initial conditions in tropical eastern Pacific tend to hinder developing warm SST anomalies in equatorial eastern Pacific and weaken the Bjerknes-type air-sea feedback in the summer of 2014, which reduce excessive westerly wind (warm SST anomalies) in equatorial western Pacific (near the Dateline) and decrease the air-sea feedback. As a result, the predicted amplitude of NINO3.4 at the peak phase is comparable to the observed one, suggesting that the initial condition errors are partially responsible for the false alarm in the 2014 El Niño prediction issued in the spring. Nonetheless, the initial condition errors could not account for easterly wind burst observed in mid June associated with enhanced extratropical anti-cyclonic atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere, which is regarded as another major factor to stall the El Niño occurrence in 2014. What drives this anomalous atmospheric forcing in mid June and how much it contributes to a more realistic prediction of the 2014 El Niño will also be discussed.

Demographics as predictors of suicidal thoughts and behaviors: A meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Huang, Xieyining; Ribeiro, Jessica D.; Musacchio, Katherine M.; Franklin, Joseph C.

2017-01-01

Background Certain demographic factors have long been cited to confer risk or protection for suicidal thoughts and behaviors. However, many studies have found weak or non-significant effects. Determining the effect strength and clinical utility of demographics as predictors is crucial for suicide risk assessment and theory development. As such, we conducted a meta-analysis to determine the effect strength and clinical utility of demographics as predictors. Methods We searched PsycInfo, PubMed, and GoogleScholar for studies published before January 1st, 2015. Inclusion criteria required that studies use at least one demographic factor to longitudinally predict suicide ideation, attempt, or death. The initial search yielded 2,541 studies, 159 of which were eligible. A total of 752 unique statistical tests were included in analysis. Results Suicide death was the most commonly studied outcome, followed by attempt and ideation. The average follow-up length was 9.4 years. The overall effects of demographic factors studied in the field as risk factors were significant but weak, and that of demographic factors studied as protective factors were non-significant. Adjusting for publication bias further reduced effect estimates. No specific demographic factors appeared to be strong predictors. The effects were consistent across multiple moderators. Conclusions At least within the narrow methodological constraints of the existing literature, demographic factors were statistically significant risk factors, but not protective factors. Even as risk factors, demographics offer very little improvement in predictive accuracy. Future studies that go beyond the limitations of the existing literature are needed to further understand the effects of demographics. PMID:28700728

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

USGS Publications Warehouse

McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought–fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought–fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought–fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate.

Generation Mechanism and Prediction Model for Low Frequency Noise Induced by Energy Dissipating Submerged Jets during Flood Discharge from a High Dam

PubMed Central

Lian, Jijian; Zhang, Wenjiao; Guo, Qizhong; Liu, Fang

2016-01-01

As flood water is discharged from a high dam, low frequency (i.e., lower than 10 Hz) noise (LFN) associated with air pulsation is generated and propagated in the surrounding areas, causing environmental problems such as vibrations of windows and doors and discomfort of residents and construction workers. To study the generation mechanisms and key influencing factors of LFN induced by energy dissipation through submerged jets at a high dam, detailed prototype observations and analyses of LFN are conducted. The discharge flow field is simulated using a gas-liquid turbulent flow model, and the vorticity fluctuation characteristics are then analyzed. The mathematical model for the LFN intensity is developed based on vortex sound theory and a turbulent flow model, verified by prototype observations. The model results reveal that the vorticity fluctuation in strong shear layers around the high-velocity submerged jets is highly correlated with the on-site LFN, and the strong shear layers are the main regions of acoustic source for the LFN. In addition, the predicted and observed magnitudes of LFN intensity agree quite well. This is the first time that the LFN intensity has been shown to be able to be predicted quantitatively. PMID:27314374

Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: Will area burned increase in a warming western USA?

PubMed

McKenzie, Donald; Littell, Jeremy S

2017-01-01

Wildfire area is predicted to increase with global warming. Empirical statistical models and process-based simulations agree almost universally. The key relationship for this unanimity, observed at multiple spatial and temporal scales, is between drought and fire. Predictive models often focus on ecosystems in which this relationship appears to be particularly strong, such as mesic and arid forests and shrublands with substantial biomass such as chaparral. We examine the drought-fire relationship, specifically the correlations between water-balance deficit and annual area burned, across the full gradient of deficit in the western USA, from temperate rainforest to desert. In the middle of this gradient, conditional on vegetation (fuels), correlations are strong, but outside this range the equivalence hotter and drier equals more fire either breaks down or is contingent on other factors such as previous-year climate. This suggests that the regional drought-fire dynamic will not be stationary in future climate, nor will other more complex contingencies associated with the variation in fire extent. Predictions of future wildfire area therefore need to consider not only vegetation changes, as some dynamic vegetation models now do, but also potential changes in the drought-fire dynamic that will ensue in a warming climate. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Evaluation and comparison of statistical methods for early temporal detection of outbreaks: A simulation-based study

PubMed Central

Le Strat, Yann

2017-01-01

The objective of this paper is to evaluate a panel of statistical algorithms for temporal outbreak detection. Based on a large dataset of simulated weekly surveillance time series, we performed a systematic assessment of 21 statistical algorithms, 19 implemented in the R package surveillance and two other methods. We estimated false positive rate (FPR), probability of detection (POD), probability of detection during the first week, sensitivity, specificity, negative and positive predictive values and F1-measure for each detection method. Then, to identify the factors associated with these performance measures, we ran multivariate Poisson regression models adjusted for the characteristics of the simulated time series (trend, seasonality, dispersion, outbreak sizes, etc.). The FPR ranged from 0.7% to 59.9% and the POD from 43.3% to 88.7%. Some methods had a very high specificity, up to 99.4%, but a low sensitivity. Methods with a high sensitivity (up to 79.5%) had a low specificity. All methods had a high negative predictive value, over 94%, while positive predictive values ranged from 6.5% to 68.4%. Multivariate Poisson regression models showed that performance measures were strongly influenced by the characteristics of time series. Past or current outbreak size and duration strongly influenced detection performances. PMID:28715489

Cytologic anaplasia is a prognostic factor in osteosarcoma biopsies, but mitotic rate or extent of spontaneous tumor necrosis are not: a critique of the College of American Pathologists Bone Biopsy template.

PubMed

Cates, Justin Mm; Dupont, William D

2017-01-01

The current College of American Pathologists cancer template for reporting biopsies of bone tumors recommends including information that is of unproven prognostic significance for osteosarcoma, such as the presence of spontaneous tumor necrosis and mitotic rate. Conversely, the degree of cytologic anaplasia (degree of differentiation) is not reported in this template. This retrospective cohort study of 125 patients with high-grade osteosarcoma was performed to evaluate the prognostic impact of these factors in diagnostic biopsy specimens in predicting the clinical outcome and response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Multivariate Cox regression was performed to adjust survival analyses for well-established prognostic factors. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine odds ratios for good chemotherapy response (≥90% tumor necrosis). Osteosarcomas with severe anaplasia were independently associated with increased overall and disease-free survival, but mitotic rate and spontaneous necrosis had no prognostic impact after controlling for other confounding factors. Mitotic rate showed a trend towards increased odds of a good histologic response, but this effect was diminished after controlling for other predictive factors. Neither spontaneous necrosis nor the degree of cytologic anaplasia observed in biopsy specimens was predictive of a good response to chemotherapy. Mitotic rate and spontaneous tumor necrosis observed in pretreatment biopsy specimens of high-grade osteosarcoma are not strong independent prognostic factors for clinical outcome or predictors of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy. Therefore, reporting these parameters for osteosarcoma, as recommended in the College of American Pathologists Bone Biopsy template, does not appear to have clinical utility. In contrast, histologic grading schemes for osteosarcoma based on the degree of cytologic anaplasia may have independent prognostic value and should continue to be evaluated.

Predictive factors for pericardial effusion identified by heart dose-volume histogram analysis in oesophageal cancer patients treated with chemoradiotherapy.

PubMed

Hayashi, K; Fujiwara, Y; Nomura, M; Kamata, M; Kojima, H; Kohzai, M; Sumita, K; Tanigawa, N

2015-02-01

To identify predictive factors for the development of pericardial effusion (PCE) in patients with oesophageal cancer treated with chemotherapy and radiotherapy (RT). From March 2006 to November 2012, patients with oesophageal cancer treated with chemoradiotherapy (CRT) using the following criteria were evaluated: radiation dose >50 Gy; heart included in the radiation field; dose-volume histogram (DVH) data available for analysis; no previous thoracic surgery; and no PCE before treatment. The diagnosis of PCE was independently determined by two radiologists. Clinical factors, the percentage of heart volume receiving >5-60 Gy in increments of 5 Gy (V5-60, respectively), maximum heart dose and mean heart dose were analysed. A total of 143 patients with oesophageal cancer were reviewed retrospectively. The median follow-up by CT was 15 months (range, 2.1-72.6 months) after RT. PCE developed in 55 patients (38.5%) after RT, and the median time to develop PCE was 3.5 months (range, 0.2-9.9 months). On univariate analysis, DVH parameters except for V60 were significantly associated with the development of PCE (p < 0.001). No clinical factor was significantly related to the development of PCE. Recursive partitioning analysis including all DVH parameters as variables showed a V10 cut-off value of 72.8% to be the most influential factor. The present results showed that DVH parameters are strong independent predictive factors for the development of PCE in patients with oesophageal cancer treated with CRT. A heart dosage was associated with the development of PCE with radiation and without prophylactic nodal irradiation.

Predictors of medical and mental health care use in patients with irritable bowel syndrome in the United States.

PubMed

Gudleski, Gregory D; Satchidanand, Nikhil; Dunlap, Laura J; Tahiliani, Varnita; Li, Xiaohua; Keefer, Laurie; Lackner, Jeffrey M

2017-01-01

Because health care demand among IBS patients imposes a heavy economic burden, identifying high utilizers has potential for improving quality and efficiency of care. Previous research has not identified reliable predictors of utilization of IBS patients. We sought to identify factors predictive of health care utilization among severe IBS patients. 291 IBS patients completed testing whose content mapped onto the Andersen model of health care utilization. 2-stage hurdle models were used to determine predictors of health care use (probability and frequency). Separate analyses were conducted for mental health and medical services. Whether patients used any medical care was predicted by diet and insurance status. Tobacco use, education, and health insurance predicted the probability of using mental health care. The frequency of medical care was associated with alcohol use and physical health status, while frequency of mental health services was associated with marital status, tobacco use, education, distress, stress, and control beliefs over IBS symptoms. For IBS patients, the demand for health care involves a complex decision-making process influenced by many factors. Particularly strong determinants include predisposing characteristics (e.g., dietary pattern, tobacco use) and enabling factors (e.g., insurance coverage) that impede or facilitate demand. Which factors impact use depends on whether the focus is on the decision to use care or how much care is used. Decisions to use medical and mental health care are not simply influenced by symptom-specific factors but by a variety of lifestyle (e.g., dietary pattern, education, smoking) and economic (e.g., insurance coverage) factors. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictors of family strength: the integrated spiritual-religious/resilient perspective for understanding the healthy/strong family.

PubMed

Ghaffari, Majid; Fatehizade, Maryam; Ahmadi, Ahmad; Ghasemi, Vahid; Baghban, Iran

2013-01-01

The present study aimed to investigate the effects of spiritual well-being and family protective factors on the family strength in a propositional structural model. The research population consisted of all the married people of the Isfahan, Iran, in 2012 with preschool-aged children and in the first decade of marriage with at least eight grades of educational level. Three hundred and ninety five voluntary and unpaid participants were selected randomly through multi-stage sampling from seven regions of the city. The instruments used were the Spiritual Well-being Scale, Inventory of Family Protective Factors, and Family Strength Scale. Descriptive statistics and a structural equation modeling analytic approach were used. The analytic model predicted 82% of the variance of the family strength. The total effect of the spiritual well-being on the family strength was higher compared to the family protective factors. Furthermore, spiritual well-being predicted 43% of the distribution of the family protective factors and had indirect effect on the family strength through the family protective factors (p < 0.001). The results of this study confirmed the interrelationships among spiritual well-being and family protective factors, and their simultaneous effects on family strength. Family counselors may employ an integrated spiritual-religious/resilient perspective to inform their strength-based work with individuals and their families. None.

Analysis of individual- and time-specific covariate effects on survival of Serinus serinus in north-eastern Spain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Conroy, M.J.; Senar, J.C.; Domenech, J.

2002-01-01

We developed models for the analysis of recapture data for 2678 serins (Serinus serinus) ringed in north-eastern Spain since 1985. We investigated several time- and individual-specific factors as potential predictors of overall mortality and dispersal patterns, and of gender and age differences in these patterns. Time-specific covariates included minimum daily temperature, days below freezing, and abundance of a strong competitor, siskins (Carduelis spinus) during winter, and maximum temperature and rainfall during summer. Individual covariates included body mass (i.e. body condition), and wing length (i.e. flying ability), and interactions between body mass and environmental factors. We found little support of a predictive relationship between environmental factors and survival, but good evidence of relationships between body mass and survival, especially for juveniles. Juvenile survival appears to vary in a curvilinear manner with increasing mass, suggesting that there may exist an optimal mass beyond which increases are detrimental. The mass-survival relationship does seem to be influenced by at least one environmental factor, namely the abundance of wintering siskins. When siskins are abundant, increases in body mass appear to relate strongly to increasing survival. When siskin numbers are average or low the relationship is largely reversed, suggesting that the presence of strong competition mitigates the otherwise largely negative aspects of greater body mass. Wing length in juveniles also appears to be related positively to survival, perhaps largely due to the influence of a few unusually large juveniles with adult-like survival. Further work is needed to test these relationships, ideally under experimentation.

Impact of Lyman alpha pressure on metal-poor dwarf galaxies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kimm, Taysun; Haehnelt, Martin; Blaizot, Jérémy; Katz, Harley; Michel-Dansac, Léo; Garel, Thibault; Rosdahl, Joakim; Teyssier, Romain

2018-04-01

Understanding the origin of strong galactic outflows and the suppression of star formation in dwarf galaxies is a key problem in galaxy formation. Using a set of radiation-hydrodynamic simulations of an isolated dwarf galaxy embedded in a 1010 M⊙ halo, we show that the momentum transferred from resonantly scattered Lyman-α (Lyα) photons is an important source of stellar feedback which can shape the evolution of galaxies. We find that Lyα feedback suppresses star formation by a factor of two in metal-poor galaxies by regulating the dynamics of star-forming clouds before the onset of supernova explosions (SNe). This is possible because each Lyα photon resonantly scatters and imparts ˜10-300 times greater momentum than in the single scattering limit. Consequently, the number of star clusters predicted in the simulations is reduced by a factor of ˜5, compared to the model without the early feedback. More importantly, we find that galactic outflows become weaker in the presence of strong Lyα radiation feedback, as star formation and associated SNe become less bursty. We also examine a model in which radiation field is arbitrarily enhanced by a factor of up to 10, and reach the same conclusion. The typical mass-loading factors in our metal-poor dwarf system are estimated to be ˜5-10 near the mid-plane, while it is reduced to ˜1 at larger radii. Finally, we find that the escape of ionizing radiation and hence the reionization history of the Universe is unlikely to be strongly affected by Lyα feedback.

Male gender preference, female gender disadvantage as risk factors for psychological morbidity in Pakistani women of childbearing age - a life course perspective

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background In Pakistan, preference for boys over girls is deeply culturally embedded. From birth, many women experience gendered disadvantages; less access to scarce resources, poorer health care, higher child mortality, limited education, less employment outside of the home and circumscribed autonomy. The prevalence of psychological morbidity is exceptionally high among women. We hypothesise that, among women of childbearing age, gender disadvantage is an independent risk factor for psychological morbidity Methods A cross-sectional catchment area survey of 525 women aged 18 to 35 years living in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. The effect of gender disadvantage was assessed as a latent variable using structural equation modelling. Indicators were parental gender preference, low parental care, parental overprotection, limited education, early age at marriage, marital dissatisfaction and low autonomy. Psychological morbidity was assessed using the 20 item Self Reporting Questionnaire (SRQ). Results Gender disadvantage was independently predictive of psychological morbidity. Among married women, socio-economic status did not predict psychological morbidity, and the effect of education was mediated through gender disadvantage rather than socioeconomic status (SES). The women's own preference for a male child was strongly predicted by their perceptions of having been disadvantaged by their gender in their families of origin. Conclusions The high prevalence of psychological morbidity among women in Pakistan is concerning given recently reported strong associations with low birth weight and infant stunting. Social action, public policies and legislation are indicated to reduce culturally embedded preferences. Neglect of these fundamentals will entrench consequent inequities including gender bias in access to education, a key millennium development goal. PMID:21958069

Waist-to-height: cutoff matters in predicting metabolic syndrome in Mexican children.

PubMed

Elizondo-Montemayor, Leticia; Serrano-González, Mónica; Ugalde-Casas, Patricia A; Bustamante-Careaga, Humberto; Cuello-García, Carlos

2011-06-01

Body-mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and, recently, waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) have been proposed as clinical indexes to identify children at cardiometabolic risk. The aim was to identify the usefulness of WHtR cutoffs, WC, and BMI as predictors of metabolic syndrome in Mexican children, according to BMI z-scores, and the severity of obesity to cardiometabolic risk factors and metabolic syndrome. This was a cross-sectional study of 214 overweight/obese and 47 normal-weight Mexican children 6-12 years old. Children were divided in groups according to BMI z-scores. Anthropometric and biochemical measurements were determined. Receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves and areas under the curves were calculated to compare the abilities of the anthropometric measurements to predict metabolic syndrome. The overall prevalence of metabolic syndrome was 23.3%, ranging from 11.0% in the overweight group to 73.9% in the severely obese one. Children with metabolic syndrome had significantly higher WHtR, WC, BMI, percentage of body fat, triglycerides, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C). A WHtR cutoff point of 0.59 from the ROC curve was identified as strong predictor of metabolic syndrome in our population, whereas a cutoff of 0.5 showed very poor specificity (22.7%). WC predicted metabolic syndrome as well. Cutoff values for WHtR make a difference in predicting metabolic syndrome. A cutoff of 0.59 for WHtR strongly predicted metabolic syndrome; it might be a simpler to use screening tools and counters for short people. Further studies are required to determine the cutoff points for an accurate prediction, because there are few in children and none in Mexico.

Predicting Nonspecific Ion Binding Using DelPhi

PubMed Central

Petukh, Marharyta; Zhenirovskyy, Maxim; Li, Chuan; Li, Lin; Wang, Lin; Alexov, Emil

2012-01-01

Ions are an important component of the cell and affect the corresponding biological macromolecules either via direct binding or as a screening ion cloud. Although some ion binding is highly specific and frequently associated with the function of the macromolecule, other ions bind to the protein surface nonspecifically, presumably because the electrostatic attraction is strong enough to immobilize them. Here, we test such a scenario and demonstrate that experimentally identified surface-bound ions are located at a potential that facilitates binding, which indicates that the major driving force is the electrostatics. Without taking into consideration geometrical factors and structural fluctuations, we show that ions tend to be bound onto the protein surface at positions with strong potential but with polarity opposite to that of the ion. This observation is used to develop a method that uses a DelPhi-calculated potential map in conjunction with an in-house-developed clustering algorithm to predict nonspecific ion-binding sites. Although this approach distinguishes only the polarity of the ions, and not their chemical nature, it can predict nonspecific binding of positively or negatively charged ions with acceptable accuracy. One can use the predictions in the Poisson-Boltzmann approach by placing explicit ions in the predicted positions, which in turn will reduce the magnitude of the local potential and extend the limits of the Poisson-Boltzmann equation. In addition, one can use this approach to place the desired number of ions before conducting molecular-dynamics simulations to neutralize the net charge of the protein, because it was shown to perform better than standard screened Coulomb canned routines, or to predict ion-binding sites in proteins. This latter is especially true for proteins that are involved in ion transport, because such ions are loosely bound and very difficult to detect experimentally. PMID:22735539

[How exactly can we predict the prognosis of COPD].

PubMed

Atiş, Sibel; Kanik, Arzu; Ozgür, Eylem Sercan; Eker, Suzan; Tümkaya, Münir; Ozge, Cengiz

2009-01-01

Predictive models play a pivotal role in the provision of accurate and useful probabilistic assessments of clinical outcomes in chronic diseases. This study was aimed to develop a dedicated prognostic index for quantifying progression risk in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Data were collected prospectively from 75 COPD patients during a three years period. A predictive model of progression risk of COPD was developed using Bayesian logistic regression analysis by Markov chain Monte Carlo method. One-year cycles were used for the disease progression in this model. Primary end points for progression were impairment in basal dyspne index (BDI) score, FEV(1) decline, and exacerbation frequency in last three years. Time-varying covariates age, smoking, body mass index (BMI), severity of disease according to GOLD, PaO2, PaCO(2), IC, RV/TLC, DLCO were used under the study. The mean age was 57.1 + or - 8.1. BDI were strongly correlated with exacerbation frequency (p= 0.001) but not with FEV(1) decline. BMI was found to be a predictor factor for impairment in BDI (p= 0.03). The following independent risk factors were significant to predict exacerbation frequency: GOLD staging (OR for GOLD I vs. II and III = 2.3 and 4.0), hypoxemia (OR for mild vs moderate and severe = 2.1 and 5.1) and hyperinflation (OR= 1.6). PaO2 (p= 0.026), IC (p= 0.02) and RV/TLC (p= 0.03) were found to be predictive factors for FEV(1) decline. The model estimated BDI, lung function and exacerbation frequency at the last time point by testing initial data of three years with 95% reliability (p< 0.001). Accordingly, this model was evaluated as confident of 95% for assessing the future status of COPD patients. Using Bayesian predictive models, it was possible to develop a risk-stratification index that accurately predicted progression of COPD. This model can provide decision-making about future in COPD patients with high reliability looking clinical data of beginning.

The development of executive functions and early mathematics: a dynamic relationship.

PubMed

Van der Ven, Sanne H G; Kroesbergen, Evelyn H; Boom, Jan; Leseman, Paul P M

2012-03-01

The relationship between executive functions and mathematical skills has been studied extensively, but results are inconclusive, and how this relationship evolves longitudinally is largely unknown. The aim was to investigate the factor structure of executive functions in inhibition, shifting, and updating; the longitudinal development of executive functions and mathematics; and the relation between them. A total of 211 children in grade 2 (7-8 years old) from 10 schools in the Netherlands. Children were followed in grade 1 and 2 of primary education. Executive functions and mathematics were measured four times. The test battery contained multiple tasks for each executive function: Animal stroop, local global, and Simon task for inhibition; Animal Shifting, Trail Making Test in Colours, and Sorting Task for shifting; and Digit Span Backwards, Odd One Out, and Keep Track for updating. The factor structure of executive functions was assessed and relations with mathematics were investigated using growth modelling. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) showed that inhibition and shifting could not be distinguished from each other. Updating was a separate factor, and its development was strongly related to mathematical development while inhibition and shifting did not predict mathematics in the presence of the updating factor. The strong relationship between updating and mathematics suggest that updating skills play a key role in the maths learning process. This makes updating a promising target for future intervention studies. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Longitudinal association of anthropometric measures of adiposity with cardiometabolic risk factors in postmenopausal women

PubMed Central

Kabat, Geoffrey C.; Heo, Moonseong; Van Horn, Linda V.; Kazlauskaite, Rasa; Getaneh, Asqual; Ard, Jamy; Vitolins, Mara Z.; Waring, Molly E.; Zaslavsky, Oleg; Smoller, Sylvia Wassertheil; Rohan, Thomas E.

2015-01-01

Purpose Some studies suggest that anthropometric measures of abdominal obesity may be superior to body mass index for the prediction of cardiometabolic risk factors; however, most studies have been cross-sectional. Our aim was to prospectively examine the association of change in body mass index (BMI), waist-hip ratio (WHR), waist circumference (WC), and waist circumference-height ratio (WCHtR) with change in markers of cardiometabolic risk in a population of postmenopausal women. Methods We used a subsample of participants in the Women’s Health Initiative aged 50 to 79 at entry with available fasting blood samples and anthropometric measurements obtained at multiple time points over 12.8 years of follow-up (N = 2,672). The blood samples were used to measure blood glucose, insulin, total cholesterol, LDL-C, HDL-C, and triglycerides at baseline, and at years 1, 3, and 6. We conducted mixed-effects linear regression analyses to examine associations at baseline and longitudinal associations between change in anthropometric measures and change in cardiometabolic risk factors, adjusting for covariates. Results In longitudinal analyses, change in BMI, WC, and WCHtR robustly predicted change in cardiometabolic risk, whereas change in WHR did not. The strongest associations were seen for change in triglycerides, glucose, and HDL-C (inverse association). Conclusion Increase in BMI, WC, and WCHtR strongly predicted increases in serum triglycerides and glucose, and reduced HDL-C. WC and WCHtR were superior to BMI in predicting serum glucose, HDL-C, and triglycerides. WCHtR was superior to WC only in predicting serum glucose. BMI, WC, and WCHtR were all superior to WHR. PMID:25453348

Longitudinal association of anthropometric measures of adiposity with cardiometabolic risk factors in postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Kabat, Geoffrey C; Heo, Moonseong; Van Horn, Linda V; Kazlauskaite, Rasa; Getaneh, Asqual; Ard, Jamy; Vitolins, Mara Z; Waring, Molly E; Zaslavsky, Oleg; Wassertheil-Smoller, Sylvia; Rohan, Thomas E

2014-12-01

Some studies suggest that anthropometric measures of abdominal obesity may be superior to body mass index (BMI) for the prediction of cardiometabolic risk factors; however, most studies have been cross-sectional. Our aim was to prospectively examine the association of change in BMI, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist circumference (WC), and waist circumference-to-height ratio (WCHtR) with change in markers of cardiometabolic risk in a population of postmenopausal women. We used a subsample of participants in the Women's Health Initiative aged 50 to 79 years at entry with available fasting blood samples and anthropometric measurements obtained at multiple time points over 12.8 years of follow-up (n = 2672). The blood samples were used to measure blood glucose, insulin, total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglycerides at baseline, and at years 1, 3, and 6. We conducted mixed-effects linear regression analyses to examine associations at baseline and longitudinal associations between change in anthropometric measures and change in cardiometabolic risk factors, adjusting for covariates. In longitudinal analyses, change in BMI, WC, and WCHtR robustly predicted change in cardiometabolic risk, whereas change in WHR did not. The strongest associations were seen for change in triglycerides, glucose, and HDL-C (inverse association). Increase in BMI, WC, and WCHtR strongly predicted increases in serum triglycerides and glucose, and reduced HDL-C. WC and WCHtR were superior to BMI in predicting serum glucose, HDL-C, and triglycerides. WCHtR was superior to WC only in predicting serum glucose. BMI, WC, and WCHtR were all superior to WHR.

Baryon anomaly and strong color fields in Pb + Pb collisions at 2.76A TeV at the CERN Large Hadron Collider

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Topor Pop, V.; Gyulassy, M.; Barrette, J.; Gale, C.

2011-10-01

With the HIJING/B¯B v2.0 heavy ion event generator, we explore the phenomenological consequences of several high parton density dynamical effects predicted in central Pb+Pb collisions at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) energies. These include (1) jet quenching due to parton energy loss (dE/dx), (2) strangeness and hyperon enhancement due to strong longitudinal color field (SCF), and (3) enhancement of baryon-to-meson ratios due to baryon-antibaryon junction (J¯J) loops and SCF effects. The saturation/minijet cutoff scale p0(s,A) and effective string tension κ(s,A) are constrained by our previous analysis of LHC p+p data and recent data on the charged multiplicity for Pb+Pb collisions reported by the ALICE collaboration. We predict the hadron flavor dependence (mesons and baryons) of the nuclear modification factor RAA(pT) and emphasize the possibility that the baryon anomaly could persist at the LHC up to pT˜10 GeV, well beyond the range observed in central Au+Au collisions at RHIC energies.

GABA predicts visual intelligence.

PubMed

Cook, Emily; Hammett, Stephen T; Larsson, Jonas

2016-10-06

Early psychological researchers proposed a link between intelligence and low-level perceptual performance. It was recently suggested that this link is driven by individual variations in the ability to suppress irrelevant information, evidenced by the observation of strong correlations between perceptual surround suppression and cognitive performance. However, the neural mechanisms underlying such a link remain unclear. A candidate mechanism is neural inhibition by gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA), but direct experimental support for GABA-mediated inhibition underlying suppression is inconsistent. Here we report evidence consistent with a global suppressive mechanism involving GABA underlying the link between sensory performance and intelligence. We measured visual cortical GABA concentration, visuo-spatial intelligence and visual surround suppression in a group of healthy adults. Levels of GABA were strongly predictive of both intelligence and surround suppression, with higher levels of intelligence associated with higher levels of GABA and stronger surround suppression. These results indicate that GABA-mediated neural inhibition may be a key factor determining cognitive performance and suggests a physiological mechanism linking surround suppression and intelligence. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

When in doubt, seize the day? Security values, prosocial values, and proactivity under ambiguity.

PubMed

Grant, Adam M; Rothbard, Nancy P

2013-09-01

Researchers have suggested that both ambiguity and values play important roles in shaping employees' proactive behaviors, but have not theoretically or empirically integrated these factors. Drawing on theories of situational strength and values, we propose that ambiguity constitutes a weak situation that strengthens the relationship between the content of employees' values and their proactivity. A field study of 204 employees and their direct supervisors in a water treatment plant provided support for this contingency perspective. Ambiguity moderated the relationship between employees' security and prosocial values and supervisor ratings of proactivity. Under high ambiguity, security values predicted lower proactivity, whereas prosocial values predicted higher proactivity. Under low ambiguity, values were not associated with proactivity. We replicated these findings in a laboratory experiment with 232 participants in which we measured proactivity objectively as initiative taken to correct errors: Participants with strong security values were less proactive, and participants with strong prosocial values were more proactive, but only when performance expectations were ambiguous. We discuss theoretical implications for research on proactivity, values, and ambiguity and uncertainty. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved

Understanding Confounding Effects in Linguistic Coordination: An Information-Theoretic Approach

PubMed Central

Gao, Shuyang; Ver Steeg, Greg; Galstyan, Aram

2015-01-01

We suggest an information-theoretic approach for measuring stylistic coordination in dialogues. The proposed measure has a simple predictive interpretation and can account for various confounding factors through proper conditioning. We revisit some of the previous studies that reported strong signatures of stylistic accommodation, and find that a significant part of the observed coordination can be attributed to a simple confounding effect—length coordination. Specifically, longer utterances tend to be followed by longer responses, which gives rise to spurious correlations in the other stylistic features. We propose a test to distinguish correlations in length due to contextual factors (topic of conversation, user verbosity, etc.) and turn-by-turn coordination. We also suggest a test to identify whether stylistic coordination persists even after accounting for length coordination and contextual factors. PMID:26115446

Multicontextual Correlates of Adolescent Leisure-Time Physical Activity

PubMed Central

Graham, Dan J.; Wall, Melanie M.; Larson, Nicole; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2014-01-01

Background Adolescent moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is influenced by many factors. MVPA-promotion interventions would fare better if these multiple determinants were better understood. Purpose To simultaneously assess overall and relative contributions of factors from personal, family, friend, school, and neighborhood contexts to adolescent MVPA. It was hypothesized that: (1) key correlates would emerge in each context; (2) factors from more- versus less-proximal contexts would relate more strongly to MVPA. Methods Students in grades 6–12 (n=2793; mean age=14.4 [SD=2.0] years; 53% girls) were recruited from 20 Minnesota public schools in 2009–2010 to participate in the Eating and Activity in Teens 2010 study. Regression analyses conducted in 2013 examined factors related to weekly MVPA. Data were collected from adolescent participants, their parents and friends, school teachers and administrators, and GIS sources. Results Fifty multicontextual factors explained 25% of MVPA variance for boys and 27% for girls. Personal factors (e.g., self-efficacy) were most predictive of MVPA, followed by social factors (e.g., support for PA); environmental factors (e.g., access to PA resources) were least predictive of adolescent PA. Gender differences emerged for several predictors (e.g., in mutually adjusted analyses, MVPA among girls, but not boys, related positively to distance to trails and MVPA among female friends and fathers, and related negatively to perceived barriers). Conclusions Stronger linkages exist between adolescent MVPA and more-proximal (personal, family, and friend) factors compared to more-distal (school and neighborhood) factors, suggesting the importance of working with adolescents, their families, and friends to promote PA. PMID:24842737

Initial sociometric impressions of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder and comparison boys: predictions from social behaviors and from nonbehavioral variables.

PubMed

Erhardt, Drew; Hinshaw, Stephen P

1994-08-01

This study systematically compared the influence of naturalistic social behaviors and nonbehavioral variables on the development of peer status in 49 previously unfamiliar boys, aged 6-12 years, who attended a summer research program. Twenty-five boys with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and 24 comparison boys participated. Physical attractiveness, motor competence, intelligence, and academic achievement constituted the nonbehavioral variables; social behaviors included noncompliance, aggression, prosocial actions, and isolation, measured by live observations of classroom and playground interactions. As early as the first day of interaction, ADHD and comparison boys displayed clear differences in social behaviors, and the ADHD youngsters were overwhelmingly rejected. Whereas prosocial behavior independently predicted friendship ratings during the first week, the magnitude of prediction was small. In contrast, the boys' aggression (or noncompliance) strongly predicted negative nominations, even with nonbehavioral factors, group status (ADHD versus comparison), and other social behaviors controlled statistically. Implications for understanding and remediating negative peer reputations are discussed.

Adjoint BFKL at finite coupling: a short-cut from the collinear limit

DOE PAGES

Basso, Benjamin; Caron-Huot, Simon; Sever, Amit

2015-01-08

In the high energy Regge limit, the six gluons scattering amplitude is controlled by the adjoint BFKL eigenvalue and impact factor. In this paper we determine these two building blocks at any value of the ’t Hooft coupling in planar N=4 SYM theory. This is achieved by means of analytic continuations from the collinear limit, where similar all loops expressions were recently established. We check our predictions against all available data at weak and strong coupling.

Application of Output Predictive Algorithmic Control to a Terrain Following Aircraft System.

DTIC Science & Technology

1982-03-01

non-linear regime the results from an optimal control solution may be questionable. 15 -**—• - •*- "•—"".’" CHAPTER 3 Output Prpdirl- ivf ...strongly influenced by two other factors as well - the sample time T and the least-squares cost function Q. unlike the deadbeat control law of Ref...design of aircraft control systems since these methods offer tremendous insight into the dynamic behavior of the system at relatively low cost . However

The effect of iconicity of visual displays on statistical reasoning: evidence in favor of the null hypothesis.

PubMed

Sirota, Miroslav; Kostovičová, Lenka; Juanchich, Marie

2014-08-01

Knowing which properties of visual displays facilitate statistical reasoning bears practical and theoretical implications. Therefore, we studied the effect of one property of visual diplays - iconicity (i.e., the resemblance of a visual sign to its referent) - on Bayesian reasoning. Two main accounts of statistical reasoning predict different effect of iconicity on Bayesian reasoning. The ecological-rationality account predicts a positive iconicity effect, because more highly iconic signs resemble more individuated objects, which tap better into an evolutionary-designed frequency-coding mechanism that, in turn, facilitates Bayesian reasoning. The nested-sets account predicts a null iconicity effect, because iconicity does not affect the salience of a nested-sets structure-the factor facilitating Bayesian reasoning processed by a general reasoning mechanism. In two well-powered experiments (N = 577), we found no support for a positive iconicity effect across different iconicity levels that were manipulated in different visual displays (meta-analytical overall effect: log OR = -0.13, 95% CI [-0.53, 0.28]). A Bayes factor analysis provided strong evidence in favor of the null hypothesis-the null iconicity effect. Thus, these findings corroborate the nested-sets rather than the ecological-rationality account of statistical reasoning.

Fine motor skills and early comprehension of the world: two new school readiness indicators.

PubMed

Grissmer, David; Grimm, Kevin J; Aiyer, Sophie M; Murrah, William M; Steele, Joel S

2010-09-01

Duncan et al. (2007) presented a new methodology for identifying kindergarten readiness factors and quantifying their importance by determining which of children's developing skills measured around kindergarten entrance would predict later reading and math achievement. This article extends Duncan et al.'s work to identify kindergarten readiness factors with 6 longitudinal data sets. Their results identified kindergarten math and reading readiness and attention as the primary long-term predictors but found no effects from social skills or internalizing and externalizing behavior. We incorporated motor skills measures from 3 of the data sets and found that fine motor skills are an additional strong predictor of later achievement. Using one of the data sets, we also predicted later science scores and incorporated an additional early test of general knowledge of the social and physical world as a predictor. We found that the test of general knowledge was by far the strongest predictor of science and reading and also contributed significantly to predicting later math, making the content of this test another important kindergarten readiness indicator. Together, attention, fine motor skills, and general knowledge are much stronger overall predictors of later math, reading, and science scores than early math and reading scores alone.

Perceived Partner Responsiveness Predicts Diurnal Cortisol Profiles 10 Years Later.

PubMed

Slatcher, Richard B; Selcuk, Emre; Ong, Anthony D

2015-07-01

Several decades of research have demonstrated that marital relationships have a powerful influence on physical health. However, surprisingly little is known about how marriage affects health--both in terms of psychological processes and biological ones. Over a 10-year period, we investigated the associations between perceived partner responsiveness--the extent to which people feel understood, cared for, and appreciated by their romantic partners--and diurnal cortisol in a large sample of married and cohabitating couples in the United States. Partner responsiveness predicted higher cortisol values at awakening and steeper (i.e., healthier) cortisol slopes at the 10-year follow-up. These associations remained strong after we controlled for demographic factors, depressive symptoms, agreeableness, and other positive and negative relationship factors. Furthermore, declines in negative affect over the 10-year period mediated the prospective association between responsiveness and cortisol slope. These findings suggest that diurnal cortisol may be a key biological pathway through which social relationships affect long-term health. © The Author(s) 2015.

The Adaptation of the Immigrant Second Generation in America: Theoretical Overview and Recent Evidence

PubMed Central

Portes, Alejandro; Fernández-Kelly, Patricia; Haller, William

2013-01-01

This paper summarises a research program on the new immigrant second generation initiated in the early 1990s and completed in 2006. The four field waves of the Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Study (CILS) are described and the main theoretical models emerging from it are presented and graphically summarised. After considering critical views of this theory, we present the most recent results from this longitudinal research program in the forum of quantitative models predicting downward assimilation in early adulthood and qualitative interviews identifying ways to escape it by disadvantaged children of immigrants. Quantitative results strongly support the predicted effects of exogenous variables identified by segmented assimilation theory and identify the intervening factors during adolescence that mediate their influence on adult outcomes. Qualitative evidence gathered during the last stage of the study points to three factors that can lead to exceptional educational achievement among disadvantaged youths. All three indicate the positive influence of selective acculturation. Implications of these findings for theory and policy are discussed. PMID:23626483

Perceptions of marital interaction among black and white newlyweds.

PubMed

Oggins, J; Veroff, J; Leber, D

1993-09-01

Perceptions of marital interactions were gathered from a representative sample of urban newlywed couples (199 Black and 174 White). A factor analysis of the reports found 6 factors common to husbands and wives: Disclosing Communication, Affective Affirmation, Negative Sexual Interaction, Traditional Role Regulation, Destructive Conflict, and Constructive Conflict. Avoiding Conflict was specific to men and Positive Coorientation was specific to women. Wives reported fewer constructive and more destructive conflict behaviors. Compared with Whites, Blacks reported more disclosure, more positive sexual interactions, and fewer topics of disagreement. They also more often reported leaving the scene of conflict and talking with others more easily than with the spouse. As hypothesized, perceptions that marital interactions affirm one's sense of identity strongly predicted marital well-being. Although regression analyses predicting marital happiness yielded few interactions with race or gender, those that are significant, coupled with race and gender differences in perceiving interaction, suggest taking a contextual orientation to the meaning of marital interaction.

Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, hazard indicators and vulnerability factors

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Blauhut, V.; Stahl, K.; Stagge, J. H.; Tallaksen, L. M.; De Stefano, L.; Vogt, J.

2015-12-01

Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This "hybrid approach" bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector- and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about landuse and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the "hybrid approach" revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on landuse and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction could be proven. Thus, the study contributes to the overall understanding of drivers of drought impacts, current practice of drought indicators selection for specific application, and drought risk assessment.

Versatility of Cooperative Transcriptional Activation: A Thermodynamical Modeling Analysis for Greater-Than-Additive and Less-Than-Additive Effects

PubMed Central

Frank, Till D.; Carmody, Aimée M.; Kholodenko, Boris N.

2012-01-01

We derive a statistical model of transcriptional activation using equilibrium thermodynamics of chemical reactions. We examine to what extent this statistical model predicts synergy effects of cooperative activation of gene expression. We determine parameter domains in which greater-than-additive and less-than-additive effects are predicted for cooperative regulation by two activators. We show that the statistical approach can be used to identify different causes of synergistic greater-than-additive effects: nonlinearities of the thermostatistical transcriptional machinery and three-body interactions between RNA polymerase and two activators. In particular, our model-based analysis suggests that at low transcription factor concentrations cooperative activation cannot yield synergistic greater-than-additive effects, i.e., DNA transcription can only exhibit less-than-additive effects. Accordingly, transcriptional activity turns from synergistic greater-than-additive responses at relatively high transcription factor concentrations into less-than-additive responses at relatively low concentrations. In addition, two types of re-entrant phenomena are predicted. First, our analysis predicts that under particular circumstances transcriptional activity will feature a sequence of less-than-additive, greater-than-additive, and eventually less-than-additive effects when for fixed activator concentrations the regulatory impact of activators on the binding of RNA polymerase to the promoter increases from weak, to moderate, to strong. Second, for appropriate promoter conditions when activator concentrations are increased then the aforementioned re-entrant sequence of less-than-additive, greater-than-additive, and less-than-additive effects is predicted as well. Finally, our model-based analysis suggests that even for weak activators that individually induce only negligible increases in promoter activity, promoter activity can exhibit greater-than-additive responses when transcription factors and RNA polymerase interact by means of three-body interactions. Overall, we show that versatility of transcriptional activation is brought about by nonlinearities of transcriptional response functions and interactions between transcription factors, RNA polymerase and DNA. PMID:22506020

Effective detection of human leukocyte antigen risk alleles in celiac disease using tag single nucleotide polymorphisms.

PubMed

Monsuur, Alienke J; de Bakker, Paul I W; Zhernakova, Alexandra; Pinto, Dalila; Verduijn, Willem; Romanos, Jihane; Auricchio, Renata; Lopez, Ana; van Heel, David A; Crusius, J Bart A; Wijmenga, Cisca

2008-05-28

The HLA genes, located in the MHC region on chromosome 6p21.3, play an important role in many autoimmune disorders, such as celiac disease (CD), type 1 diabetes (T1D), rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, psoriasis and others. Known HLA variants that confer risk to CD, for example, include DQA1*05/DQB1*02 (DQ2.5) and DQA1*03/DQB1*0302 (DQ8). To diagnose the majority of CD patients and to study disease susceptibility and progression, typing these strongly associated HLA risk factors is of utmost importance. However, current genotyping methods for HLA risk factors involve many reactions, and are complicated and expensive. We sought a simple experimental approach using tagging SNPs that predict the CD-associated HLA risk factors. Our tagging approach exploits linkage disequilibrium between single nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) and the CD-associated HLA risk factors DQ2.5 and DQ8 that indicate direct risk, and DQA1*0201/DQB1*0202 (DQ2.2) and DQA1*0505/DQB1*0301 (DQ7) that attribute to the risk of DQ2.5 to CD. To evaluate the predictive power of this approach, we performed an empirical comparison of the predicted DQ types, based on these six tag SNPs, with those executed with current validated laboratory typing methods of the HLA-DQA1 and -DQB1 genes in three large cohorts. The results were validated in three European celiac populations. Using this method, only six SNPs were needed to predict the risk types carried by >95% of CD patients. We determined that for this tagging approach the sensitivity was >0.991, specificity >0.996 and the predictive value >0.948. Our results show that this tag SNP method is very accurate and provides an excellent basis for population screening for CD. This method is broadly applicable in European populations.

Yes: The Symptoms of OCD and Depression Are Discrete and Not Exclusively Negative Affectivity

PubMed Central

Moore, Kathleen A.; Howell, Jacqui

2017-01-01

Although Obsessive-Compulsive Disorder (OCD) and Depression are classified as separate disorders, the high incidence of co-morbidity and the strong correlations between measures of each has led to debate about the nature of their relationship. Some authors have proposed that OCD is in fact a mood disorder while others have suggested that the two disorders are grounded in negative affectivity. A third proposition is that depression is an essential part of OCD but that OCD is a separate disorder from depression. The aim in this study was to investigate these diverse propositions in a non-clinical sample and also to determine whether factors implicated in each, that is anxious and depressive cognitions, hopelessness, and self-criticism, would demonstrate commonality as predictors of the symptoms of OCD and of depression. Two hundred participants (59% female) (M age = 34 years, SD = 16) completed the Padua Inventory, Carroll Rating Scale, Cognitions Checklist, Self-Criticism Scale, Beck Hopelessness Scale, Buss-Durkee Hostility Inventory-Revised and a Negative Affectivity Schedule. Results indicated a strong correlation between OCD and depression, depression, and negative affectivity but a weaker relationship between OCD and negative affectivity. Path analyses revealed that both anxious and depressive cognitions, as well as hostility predicted both disorders but the Beta-weights were stronger on OCD. Self-criticism predicted only depression while hopelessness failed to predict either disorder but was itself predicted by depressive cognitions. Depression was a stronger indicator of negative affect than OCD and while OCD positively predicted depression, depression was a negative indicator of OCD. These results support the hypothesis that OCD and depression are discrete disorders and indicate that while depression is implicated in OCD, the reverse does not hold. While both disorders are related to negative affectivity, this relationship is much stronger for depression thus failing to confirm that both are subsumed by a common factor, in this case, negative affectivity. The proposition that depression is part of OCD but that OCD is not necessarily implicated in depression and is, in fact, a separate disorder, is supported by the current model. Further research is required to support the utility of the model in clinical samples. PMID:28553250

Interhost dispersal alters microbiome assembly and can overwhelm host innate immunity in an experimental zebrafish model.

PubMed

Burns, Adam R; Miller, Elizabeth; Agarwal, Meghna; Rolig, Annah S; Milligan-Myhre, Kathryn; Seredick, Steve; Guillemin, Karen; Bohannan, Brendan J M

2017-10-17

The diverse collections of microorganisms associated with humans and other animals, collectively referred to as their "microbiome," are critical for host health, but the mechanisms that govern their assembly are poorly understood. This has made it difficult to identify consistent host factors that explain variation in microbiomes across hosts, despite large-scale sampling efforts. While ecological theory predicts that the movement, or dispersal, of individuals can have profound and predictable consequences on community assembly, its role in the assembly of animal-associated microbiomes remains underexplored. Here, we show that dispersal of microorganisms among hosts can contribute substantially to microbiome variation, and is able to overwhelm the effects of individual host factors, in an experimental test of ecological theory. We manipulated dispersal among wild-type and immune-deficient myd88 knockout zebrafish and observed that interhost dispersal had a large effect on the diversity and composition of intestinal microbiomes. Interhost dispersal was strong enough to overwhelm the effects of host factors, largely eliminating differences between wild-type and immune-deficient hosts, regardless of whether dispersal occurred within or between genotypes, suggesting dispersal can independently alter the ecology of microbiomes. Our observations are consistent with a predictive model that assumes metacommunity dynamics and are likely mediated by dispersal-related microbial traits. These results illustrate the importance of microbial dispersal to animal microbiomes and motivate its integration into the study of host-microbe systems.

Prevalence, incidence and risk factors of carpal tunnel syndrome in a large footwear factory.

PubMed

Roquelaure, Y; Mariel, J; Dano, C; Fanello, S; Penneau-Fontbonne, D

2001-01-01

The study was conducted to assess the prevalence and incidence of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) in a large modern footwear factory and to identify factors predictive of CTS. To this end, 199 workers were examined in 1996, and 162 of them were re-examined in 1997. Ergonomic and psychosocial risk factors of CTS were assessed by workpost analysis and self-administered questionnaire. The prevalence of CTS at baseline in 1996 and in 1997 was 16.6% (95%CI: 11.4-21.7) and 11.7% (95%CI: 6.7-16.8), respectively. The incidence rate of CTS in 1997 was 11.7% (95%CI: 6.7-7.8). No specific type of job performance was associated with CTS. Obesity (OR = 4.4; 95%CI: 1.1-17.1) and psychological distress at baseline (OR = 4.3; 95%CI: 1.0-18.6) were strongly predictive of CTS. Rapid trigger movements of the fingers were also predictive of CTS (OR = 3.8; 95%CI: 1.0-17.2). A strict control of thework by superiors was negatively associatedwith CTS (OR = 0.5; 95%CI: 0.2-1.3). The prevalence and incidence of CTS in this workforce were largely higher than in the general population and numerous industries. The study highlights the role of psychological distress in workers exposed to a high level of physical exposure and psychological demand.

Prediction of Binding Energy of Keap1 Interaction Motifs in the Nrf2 Antioxidant Pathway and Design of Potential High-Affinity Peptides.

PubMed

Karttunen, Mikko; Choy, Wing-Yiu; Cino, Elio A

2018-06-07

Nuclear factor erythroid 2-related factor 2 (Nrf2) is a transcription factor and principal regulator of the antioxidant pathway. The Kelch domain of Kelch-like ECH-associated protein 1 (Keap1) binds to motifs in the N-terminal region of Nrf2, promoting its degradation. There is interest in developing ligands that can compete with Nrf2 for binding to Kelch, thereby activating its transcriptional activities and increasing antioxidant levels. Using experimental Δ G bind values of Kelch-binding motifs determined previously, a revised hydrophobicity-based model was developed for estimating Δ G bind from amino acid sequence and applied to rank potential uncharacterized Kelch-binding motifs identified from interaction databases and BLAST searches. Model predictions and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations suggested that full-length MAD2A binds Kelch more favorably than a high-affinity 20-mer Nrf2 E78P peptide, but that the motif in isolation is not a particularly strong binder. Endeavoring to develop shorter peptides for activating Nrf2, new designs were created based on the E78P peptide, some of which showed considerable propensity to form binding-competent structures in MD, and were predicted to interact with Kelch more favorably than the E78P peptide. The peptides could be promising new ligands for enhancing the oxidative stress response.

Predicting effects of climate change on the composition and function of soil microbial communities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dubinsky, E.; Brodie, E.; Myint, C.; Ackerly, D.; van Nostrand, J.; Bird, J.; Zhou, J.; Andersen, G.; Firestone, M.

2008-12-01

Complex soil microbial communities regulate critical ecosystem processes that will be altered by climate change. A critical step towards predicting the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems is to determine the primary controllers of soil microbial community composition and function, and subsequently evaluate climate change scenarios that alter these controllers. We surveyed complex soil bacterial and archaeal communities across a range of climatic and edaphic conditions to identify critical controllers of soil microbial community composition in the field and then tested the resulting predictions using a 2-year manipulation of precipitation and temperature using mesocosms of California annual grasslands. Community DNA extracted from field soils sampled from six different ecosystems was assayed for bacterial and archaeal communities using high-density phylogenetic microarrays as well as functional gene arrays. Correlations among the relative abundances of thousands of microbial taxa and edaphic factors such as soil moisture and nutrient content provided a basis for predicting community responses to changing soil conditions. Communities of soil bacteria and archaea were strongly structured by single environmental predictors, particularly variables related to soil water. Bacteria in the Actinomycetales and Bacilli consistently demonstrated a strong negative response to increasing soil moisture, while taxa in a greater variety of lineages responded positively to increasing soil moisture. In the climate change experiment, overall bacterial community structure was impacted significantly by total precipitation but not by plant species. Changes in soil moisture due to decreased rainfall resulted in significant and predictable alterations in community structure. Over 70% of the bacterial taxa in common with the cross-ecosystem study responded as predicted to altered precipitation, with the most conserved response from Actinobacteria. The functional consequences of these predictable changes in community composition were measured with functional arrays that detect genes involved in the metabolism of carbon, nitrogen and other elements. The response of soil microbial communities to altered precipitation can be predicted from the distribution of microbial taxa across moisture gradients.

Phonon-tunnelling dissipation in mechanical resonators

PubMed Central

Cole, Garrett D.; Wilson-Rae, Ignacio; Werbach, Katharina; Vanner, Michael R.; Aspelmeyer, Markus

2011-01-01

Microscale and nanoscale mechanical resonators have recently emerged as ubiquitous devices for use in advanced technological applications, for example, in mobile communications and inertial sensors, and as novel tools for fundamental scientific endeavours. Their performance is in many cases limited by the deleterious effects of mechanical damping. In this study, we report a significant advancement towards understanding and controlling support-induced losses in generic mechanical resonators. We begin by introducing an efficient numerical solver, based on the 'phonon-tunnelling' approach, capable of predicting the design-limited damping of high-quality mechanical resonators. Further, through careful device engineering, we isolate support-induced losses and perform a rigorous experimental test of the strong geometric dependence of this loss mechanism. Our results are in excellent agreement with the theory, demonstrating the predictive power of our approach. In combination with recent progress on complementary dissipation mechanisms, our phonon-tunnelling solver represents a major step towards accurate prediction of the mechanical quality factor. PMID:21407197

Spatial ability as a predictor of math achievement: the importance of sex and handedness patterns.

PubMed

Casey, M B; Pezaris, E; Nuttall, R L

1992-01-01

In accordance with major theories of handedness and brain organization, differential predictors for math achievement were found as a function of sex and handedness subgroups among eighth graders. Although there was no difference in absolute levels of performance as a function of either sex or handedness, predictive structures did differ. Regression analyses showed that spatial ability predicts math achievement for: (1) girls with anomalous dominance (non-right-handers and right-handers with non-right-handed relatives), and (2) all boys (independent of handedness group). In contrast, for the standard dominance girls who are right-handed with all right-handed relatives (considered strongly left-hemisphere dominant for language), spatial ability did not predict for math achievement. These findings occurred, even when scholastic aptitude and verbal achievement factors were controlled. It was concluded that further studies of sex differences in math achievement should consider subgroup differences within the sexes, based on handedness patterns.

Predictable ecology and geography of West Nile virus transmission in the central United States.

PubMed

Peterson, A Townsend; Robbins, Amber; Restifo, Robert; Howell, James; Nasci, Roger

2008-12-01

West Nile virus (WNV) arrived in North America and spread rapidly through the western hemisphere. We present a series of tests to determine whether ecological factors are consistently associated with WNV transmission to humans. We analyzed human WNV cases in the states of Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio in 2002 and 2003, building ecological niche models to associate WNV case occurrences with ecological and environmental parameters. In essentially all tests, both within states, among states, between years, and across the region, we found high predictivity of WNV case distributions, suggesting that one or more elements in the WNV transmission cycle has a strong ecological determination. Areas in the geographic region included in this study predicted as suitable for WNV transmission tended to have lower values of the vegetation indices in the summer months, pointing to consistent ecological differences between suitable and unsuitable areas.

Predicting phonetic transcription agreement: Insights from research in infant vocalizations

PubMed Central

RAMSDELL, HEATHER L.; OLLER, D. KIMBROUGH; ETHINGTON, CORINNA A.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study is to provide new perspectives on correlates of phonetic transcription agreement. Our research focuses on phonetic transcription and coding of infant vocalizations. The findings are presumed to be broadly applicable to other difficult cases of transcription, such as found in severe disorders of speech, which similarly result in low reliability for a variety of reasons. We evaluated the predictiveness of two factors not previously documented in the literature as influencing transcription agreement: canonicity and coder confidence. Transcribers coded samples of infant vocalizations, judging both canonicity and confidence. Correlation results showed that canonicity and confidence were strongly related to agreement levels, and regression results showed that canonicity and confidence both contributed significantly to explanation of variance. Specifically, the results suggest that canonicity plays a major role in transcription agreement when utterances involve supraglottal articulation, with coder confidence offering additional power in predicting transcription agreement. PMID:17882695

Age of acquisition predicts naming and lexical-decision performance above and beyond 22 other predictor variables: an analysis of 2,342 words.

PubMed

Cortese, Michael J; Khanna, Maya M

2007-08-01

Age of acquisition (AoA) ratings were obtained and were used in hierarchical regression analyses to predict naming and lexical-decision performance for 2,342 words (from Balota, Cortese, Sergent-Marshall, Spieler, & Yap, 2004). In the analyses, AoA was included in addition to the set of predictors used by Balota et al. (2004). AoA significantly predicted latency performance on both tasks above and beyond the standard predictor set. However, AoA was more strongly related to lexical-decision performance than to naming performance. Finally, the previously reported effect of imageability on naming latencies by Balota et al. was not significant with AoA included as a factor. These results are consistent with the idea either that AoA has a semantic/lexical locus or that AoA effects emerge primarily in situations in which the input-output mapping is arbitrary.

Quality and Correlates of Peer Relationships in Youths with Chronic Pain.

PubMed

La Buissonnière-Ariza, Valérie; Hart, Dennis; Schneider, Sophie C; McBride, Nicole M; Cepeda, Sandra L; Haney, Brandon; Tauriello, Sara; Glenn, Shannon; Ung, Danielle; Huszar, Peter; Tetreault, Lisa; Petti, Erin; Winesett, S Parrish; Storch, Eric A

2018-04-10

Youths with chronic pain may experience difficulties with peer relationships. We investigated the quality and correlates of peer relationships in a sample of 181 youths with chronic pain. A majority of youths were satisfied with their relationships with peers; however, levels were highly variable. Higher functional impairment and depression levels predicted lower peer relationship quality, controlling for demographic and other pain-related factors. In addition, peer relationship quality and pain severity predicted child depression and anxiety symptoms, whereas peer relationship quality only predicted anger symptoms. Relationship quality moderated the association between pain severity and functional impairment, suggesting that strong relationships with peers may buffer the effects of pain on functioning. Peer relationships seem particularly important for the adjustment and psychological well-being of youths with chronic pain. Particular attention should be given to functionally impaired and depressed children, who may be at higher risk of peer difficulties.

Low self-esteem prospectively predicts depression in adolescence and young adulthood.

PubMed

Orth, Ulrich; Robins, Richard W; Roberts, Brent W

2008-09-01

Low self-esteem and depression are strongly correlated in cross-sectional studies, yet little is known about their prospective effects on each other. The vulnerability model hypothesizes that low self-esteem serves as a risk factor for depression, whereas the scar model hypothesizes that low self-esteem is an outcome, not a cause, of depression. To test these models, the authors used 2 large longitudinal data sets, each with 4 repeated assessments between the ages of 15 and 21 years and 18 and 21 years, respectively. Cross-lagged regression analyses indicated that low self-esteem predicted subsequent levels of depression, but depression did not predict subsequent levels of self-esteem. These findings held for both men and women and after controlling for content overlap between the self-esteem and depression scales. Thus, the results supported the vulnerability model, but not the scar model, of self-esteem and depression.

The Interrelationships of Mathematical Precursors in Kindergarten

PubMed Central

Cirino, Paul T.

2011-01-01

This study evaluated the interrelations among cognitive precursors across quantitative, linguistic, and spatial attention domains that have been implicated for math achievement in young children. The dimensionality of the quantity precursors was evaluated in 286 Kindergarteners via latent variable techniques, and the contribution of precursors from each domain was established for small sums addition. Results showed a five factor structure for the quantity precursors with the major distinction between nonsymbolic and symbolic tasks. The overall model demonstrated good fit, and strong predictive power (R2 = 55%) for addition number combinations. Linguistic and spatial attention domains showed indirect relationships with outcomes, with their effects mediated by symbolic quantity measures. These results have implications for the measurement of mathematical precursors, and yield promise for predicting future math performance. PMID:21194711

Charge Fractionalization in the Two-Channel Kondo Effect

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Landau, L. Aviad; Cornfeld, Eyal; Sela, Eran

2018-05-01

The phenomenon of charge fractionalization describes the emergence of novel excitations with fractional quantum numbers, as predicted in strongly correlated systems such as spin liquids. We elucidate that precisely such an unusual effect may occur in the simplest possible non-Fermi liquid, the two-channel Kondo effect. To bring this concept down to experimental test, we study nonequilibrium transport through a device realizing the charge two-channel Kondo critical point in a recent experiment by Iftikhar et al. [Nature (London) 526, 233 (2015), 10.1038/nature15384]. The shot noise at low voltages is predicted to result in a universal Fano factor e*/e =1 /2 . This allows us to experimentally identify elementary transport processes of emergent fermions carrying half-integer charge.

Depression and smoking: a 5-year prospective study of patients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Holma, Irina A K; Holma, K Mikael; Melartin, Tarja K; Ketokivi, Mikko; Isometsä, Erkki T

2013-06-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) and smoking are major public health problems and epidemiologically strongly associated. However, the relationship between smoking and depression and whether this is influenced by common confounding factors remain unclear, in part due to limited longitudinal data on covariation. In the Vantaa Depression Study, psychiatric out- and inpatients with DSM-IV MDD and aged 20-59 years at were followed from baseline to 6 months, 18 months, and 5 years. We investigated course of depression, smoking, and comorbid alcohol-use disorders among the 214 patients (79.6% of 269) participating at least three time points; differences between smoking versus nonsmoking patients, and covariation of MDD, smoking, and alcohol-use disorders. Overall, 31.3% of the patients smoked regularly, 41.1% intermittently, and 27.6% never. Smokers were younger, had more alcohol-use disorders and Cluster B and C personality disorder symptoms, a higher frequency of lifetime suicide attempts, higher neuroticism, smaller social networks, and lower perceived social support than never smokers. Smoking and depression had limited longitudinal covariation. Depression, smoking, and alcohol-use disorders all exhibited strong autoregressive tendencies. Among adult psychiatric MDD patients, smoking is strongly associated with substance-use and personality disorders, which may confound research on the impact of smoking. Rather than depression or smoking covarying or predicting each other, depression, smoking, and alcohol-use disorders each have strong autoregressive tendencies. These findings are more consistent with common factors causing their association than either of the conditions strongly predisposing to the other. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Separate but correlated: The latent structure of space and mathematics across development.

PubMed

Mix, Kelly S; Levine, Susan C; Cheng, Yi-Ling; Young, Chris; Hambrick, D Zachary; Ping, Raedy; Konstantopoulos, Spyros

2016-09-01

The relations among various spatial and mathematics skills were assessed in a cross-sectional study of 854 children from kindergarten, third, and sixth grades (i.e., 5 to 13 years of age). Children completed a battery of spatial mathematics tests and their scores were submitted to exploratory factor analyses both within and across domains. In the within domain analyses, all of the measures formed single factors at each age, suggesting consistent, unitary structures across this age range. Yet, as in previous work, the 2 domains were highly correlated, both in terms of overall composite score and pairwise comparisons of individual tasks. When both spatial and mathematics scores were submitted to the same factor analysis, the 2 domain specific factors again emerged, but there also were significant cross-domain factor loadings that varied with age. Multivariate regressions replicated the factor analysis and further revealed that mental rotation was the best predictor of mathematical performance in kindergarten, and visual-spatial working memory was the best predictor of mathematical performance in sixth grade. The mathematical tasks that predicted the most variance in spatial skill were place value (K, 3rd, 6th), word problems (3rd, 6th), calculation (K), fraction concepts (3rd), and algebra (6th). Thus, although spatial skill and mathematics each have strong internal structures, they also share significant overlap, and have particularly strong cross-domain relations for certain tasks. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Strong ground motion prediction using virtual earthquakes.

PubMed

Denolle, M A; Dunham, E M; Prieto, G A; Beroza, G C

2014-01-24

Sedimentary basins increase the damaging effects of earthquakes by trapping and amplifying seismic waves. Simulations of seismic wave propagation in sedimentary basins capture this effect; however, there exists no method to validate these results for earthquakes that have not yet occurred. We present a new approach for ground motion prediction that uses the ambient seismic field. We apply our method to a suite of magnitude 7 scenario earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault and compare our ground motion predictions with simulations. Both methods find strong amplification and coupling of source and structure effects, but they predict substantially different shaking patterns across the Los Angeles Basin. The virtual earthquake approach provides a new approach for predicting long-period strong ground motion.

The Effect and Relative Importance of Neutral Genetic Diversity for Predicting Parasitism Varies across Parasite Taxa

PubMed Central

Ruiz-López, María José; Monello, Ryan J.; Gompper, Matthew E.; Eggert, Lori S.

2012-01-01

Understanding factors that determine heterogeneity in levels of parasitism across individuals is a major challenge in disease ecology. It is known that genetic makeup plays an important role in infection likelihood, but the mechanism remains unclear as does its relative importance when compared to other factors. We analyzed relationships between genetic diversity and macroparasites in outbred, free-ranging populations of raccoons (Procyon lotor). We measured heterozygosity at 14 microsatellite loci and modeled the effects of both multi-locus and single-locus heterozygosity on parasitism using an information theoretic approach and including non-genetic factors that are known to influence the likelihood of parasitism. The association of genetic diversity and parasitism, as well as the relative importance of genetic diversity, differed by parasitic group. Endoparasite species richness was better predicted by a model that included genetic diversity, with the more heterozygous hosts harboring fewer endoparasite species. Genetic diversity was also important in predicting abundance of replete ticks (Dermacentor variabilis). This association fit a curvilinear trend, with hosts that had either high or low levels of heterozygosity harboring fewer parasites than those with intermediate levels. In contrast, genetic diversity was not important in predicting abundance of non-replete ticks and lice (Trichodectes octomaculatus). No strong single-locus effects were observed for either endoparasites or replete ticks. Our results suggest that in outbred populations multi-locus diversity might be important for coping with parasitism. The differences in the relationships between heterozygosity and parasitism for the different parasites suggest that the role of genetic diversity varies with parasite-mediated selective pressures. PMID:23049796

Growth differentiation factor-15 predicts mortality and morbidity after cardiac resynchronization therapy.

PubMed

Foley, Paul W X; Stegemann, Berthold; Ng, Kelvin; Ramachandran, Sud; Proudler, Anthony; Frenneaux, Michael P; Ng, Leong L; Leyva, Francisco

2009-11-01

The aim of this study was to determine whether growth differentiation factor-15 (GDF-15) predicts mortality and morbidity after cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT). Growth differentiation factor-15, a transforming growth factor-beta-related cytokine which is up-regulated in cardiomyocytes via multiple stress pathways, predicts mortality in patients with heart failure treated pharmacologically. Growth differentiation factor-15 was measured before and 360 days (median) after implantation in 158 patients with heart failure [age 68 +/- 11 years (mean +/- SD), left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 23.1 +/- 9.8%, New York Class Association (NYHA) class III (n = 117) or IV (n = 41), and QRS 153.9 +/- 28.2 ms] undergoing CRT and followed up for a maximum of 5.4 years for events. In a stepwise Cox proportional hazards model with bootstrapping, adopting log GDF-15, log NT pro-BNP, LVEF, and NYHA class as independent variables, only log GDF-15 [hazard ratio (HR), 3.76; P = 0.0049] and log NT pro-BNP (HR, 2.12; P = 0.0171) remained in the final model. In the latter, the bias-corrected slope was 0.85, the optimism (O) was -0.06, and the c-statistic was 0.74, indicating excellent internal validity. In univariate analyses, log GDF-15 [HR, 5.31; 95% confidence interval (CI), 2.31-11.9; likelihood ratio (LR) chi(2) = 14.6; P < 0.0001], NT pro-BNP (HR, 2.79; 95% CI, 1.55-5.26; LR chi(2) = 10.4; P = 0.0004), and the combination of both biomarkers (HR, 7.03; 95% CI, 2.91-17.5; LR chi(2) = 19.1; P < 0.0001) emerged as significant predictors. The biomarker combination was associated with the highest LR chi(2) for all endpoints. Pre-implant GDF-15 is a strong predictor of mortality and morbidity after CRT, independent of NT pro-BNP. The predictive value of these analytes is enhanced by combined measurement.

Modification of the USLE K factor for soil erodibility assessment on calcareous soils in Iran

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ostovari, Yaser; Ghorbani-Dashtaki, Shoja; Bahrami, Hossein-Ali; Naderi, Mehdi; Dematte, Jose Alexandre M.; Kerry, Ruth

2016-11-01

The measurement of soil erodibility (K) in the field is tedious, time-consuming and expensive; therefore, its prediction through pedotransfer functions (PTFs) could be far less costly and time-consuming. The aim of this study was to develop new PTFs to estimate the K factor using multiple linear regression, Mamdani fuzzy inference systems, and artificial neural networks. For this purpose, K was measured in 40 erosion plots with natural rainfall. Various soil properties including the soil particle size distribution, calcium carbonate equivalent, organic matter, permeability, and wet-aggregate stability were measured. The results showed that the mean measured K was 0.014 t h MJ- 1 mm- 1 and 2.08 times less than the estimated mean K (0.030 t h MJ- 1 mm- 1) using the USLE model. Permeability, wet-aggregate stability, very fine sand, and calcium carbonate were selected as independent variables by forward stepwise regression in order to assess the ability of multiple linear regression, Mamdani fuzzy inference systems and artificial neural networks to predict K. The calcium carbonate equivalent, which is not accounted for in the USLE model, had a significant impact on K in multiple linear regression due to its strong influence on the stability of aggregates and soil permeability. Statistical indices in validation and calibration datasets determined that the artificial neural networks method with the highest R2, lowest RMSE, and lowest ME was the best model for estimating the K factor. A strong correlation (R2 = 0.81, n = 40, p < 0.05) between the estimated K from multiple linear regression and measured K indicates that the use of calcium carbonate equivalent as a predictor variable gives a better estimation of K in areas with calcareous soils.

Multiple sclerosis and employment: Associations of psychological factors and work instability.

PubMed

Wicks, Charlotte Rose; Ward, Karl; Stroud, Amanda; Tennant, Alan; Ford, Helen L

2016-10-12

People with multiple sclerosis often stop working earlier than expected. Psychological factors may have an impact on job retention. Investigation may inform interventions to help people stay in work. To investigate the associations between psychological factors and work instability in people with multiple sclerosis. A multi-method, 2-phased study. Focus groups were held to identify key themes. Questionnaire packs using validated scales of the key themes were completed at baseline and at 8-month follow-up. Four key psychological themes emerged. Out of 208 study subjects 57.2% reported medium/high risk of job loss, with marginal changes at 8 months. Some psychological variables fluctuated significantly, e.g. depression fell from 24.6% to 14.5%. Work instability and anxiety and depression were strongly correlated (χ2 p < 0.001). Those with probable depression at baseline had 7.1 times increased odds of medium/high work instability, and baseline depression levels also predicted later work instability (Hosmer-Lemeshow test 0.899; Nagelkerke R Square 0.579). Psychological factors fluctuated over the 8-month follow-up period. Some psychological variables, including anxiety and depression, were significantly associated with, and predictive of, work instability. Longitudinal analysis should further identify how these psychological attributes impact on work instability and potential job loss in the longer term.

Factors influencing consumption of farmed seafood products in the Pacific northwest.

PubMed

Hall, Troy E; Amberg, Shannon M

2013-07-01

This study used a mail survey (n=1159 usable surveys) of Pacific northwest (US) residents to understand general seafood preferences (familiarity, price, freshness, health and environmental concerns), beliefs and attitudes specific to aquaculture versus wild products, and how those cognitive factors affect decisions to consume types of farmed seafood products. Respondents strongly agreed that seafood is healthy, and they preferred wild over farmed products. Many respondents were uncertain about human health and environmental benefits and problems associated with aquaculture. While there was agreement that aquaculture reduces pressure on wild fish, there was equally strong agreement that it has the same problems as other agricultural practices. Belief in the superiority of wild seafood was a strong predictor of consumption choices. Belief in the benefits of aquaculture was positively related to higher consumption of farmed products, but--unexpectedly--beliefs related to environmental and health problems associated with aquaculture did not predict specific consumption choices. Nearly half of respondents recalled hearing or reading about aquaculture in the mass media, and recall of negative stories contributed to a general preference for wild products, but not consumption of specific types of farmed products. Consumption of the different classes of products had some different predictors, and communication efforts directed at different beliefs may have different impacts on consumer behavior. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Exploration of the Transition from the Hydrodynamic-like to the Strongly Kinetic Regime in Shock-Driven Implosions

DOE PAGES

Rosenberg, M. J.; Rinderknecht, H. G.; Hoffman, N. M.; ...

2014-05-05

Clear evidence of the transition from hydrodynamiclike to strongly kinetic shock-driven implosions is, for the first time, revealed and quantitatively assessed. Implosions with a range of initial equimolar D 3He gas densities show that as the density is decreased, hydrodynamic simulations strongly diverge from and increasingly over-predict the observed nuclear yields, from a factor of ~2 at 3.1 mg/cm 3 to a factor of 100 at 0.14 mg/cm 3. (The corresponding Knudsen number, the ratio of ion mean-free path to minimum shell radius, varied from 0.3 to 9; similarly, the ratio of fusion burn duration to ion diffusion time, anothermore » figure of merit of kinetic effects, varied from 0.3 to 14.) This result is shown to be unrelated to the effects of hydrodynamic mix. As a first step to garner insight into this transition, a reduced ion kinetic (RIK) model that includes gradient-diffusion and loss-term approximations to several transport processes was implemented within the framework of a one-dimensional radiation-transport code. After empirical calibration, the RIK simulations reproduce the observed yield trends, largely as a result of ion diffusion and the depletion of the reacting tail ions.« less

Soil carbon stocks across tropical forests of Panama regulated by base cation effects on fine roots

DOE PAGES

Cusack, Daniela F.; Markesteijn, Lars; Condit, Richard; ...

2018-01-02

We report that tropical forests are the most carbon (C)- rich ecosystems on Earth, containing 25–40% of global terrestrial C stocks. While large-scale quantifi- cation of aboveground biomass in tropical forests has improved recently, soil C dynamics remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in Earth system models, which inhibits our ability to predict future climate. Globally, soil texture and climate predict B 30% of the variation in soil C stocks, so ecosystem models often predict soil C using measures of aboveground plant growth. However, this approach can underestimate tropical soil C stocks, and has proven inaccurate when comparedmore » with data for soil C in data-rich northern ecosystems. By quantifying soil organic C stocks to 1 m depth for 48 humid tropical forest plots across gradients of rainfall and soil fertility in Panama, we show that soil C does not correlate with common predictors used in models, such as plant biomass or litter production. Instead, a structural equation model including base cations, soil clay content, and rainfall as exogenous factors and root biomass as an endogenous factor predicted nearly 50% of the variation in tropical soil C stocks, indicating a strong indirect effect of base cation availability on tropical soil C storage. Including soil base cations in C cycle models, and thus emphasizing mechanistic links among nutrients, root biomass, and soil C stocks, will improve prediction of climate-soil feedbacks in tropical forests.« less

Soil carbon stocks across tropical forests of Panama regulated by base cation effects on fine roots

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cusack, Daniela F.; Markesteijn, Lars; Condit, Richard

We report that tropical forests are the most carbon (C)- rich ecosystems on Earth, containing 25–40% of global terrestrial C stocks. While large-scale quantifi- cation of aboveground biomass in tropical forests has improved recently, soil C dynamics remain one of the largest sources of uncertainty in Earth system models, which inhibits our ability to predict future climate. Globally, soil texture and climate predict B 30% of the variation in soil C stocks, so ecosystem models often predict soil C using measures of aboveground plant growth. However, this approach can underestimate tropical soil C stocks, and has proven inaccurate when comparedmore » with data for soil C in data-rich northern ecosystems. By quantifying soil organic C stocks to 1 m depth for 48 humid tropical forest plots across gradients of rainfall and soil fertility in Panama, we show that soil C does not correlate with common predictors used in models, such as plant biomass or litter production. Instead, a structural equation model including base cations, soil clay content, and rainfall as exogenous factors and root biomass as an endogenous factor predicted nearly 50% of the variation in tropical soil C stocks, indicating a strong indirect effect of base cation availability on tropical soil C storage. Including soil base cations in C cycle models, and thus emphasizing mechanistic links among nutrients, root biomass, and soil C stocks, will improve prediction of climate-soil feedbacks in tropical forests.« less

Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science.

PubMed

Lee, Tien Ming; Jetz, Walter

2011-05-07

Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.

Combined preoperative measurement of three inferior alveolar canal factors using computed tomography predicts the risk of inferior alveolar nerve injury during lower third molar extraction.

PubMed

Tachinami, H; Tomihara, K; Fujiwara, K; Nakamori, K; Noguchi, M

2017-11-01

A retrospective cohort study was performed to assess the clinical usefulness of combination assessment using computed tomography (CT) images in patients undergoing third molar extraction. This study included 85 patients (124 extraction sites). The relationship between cortication status, buccolingual position, and shape of the inferior alveolar canal (IAC) on CT images and the incidence of inferior alveolar nerve (IAN) injury after third molar extraction was evaluated. IAN injury was observed at eight of the 124 sites (6.5%), and in five of 19 sites (26.3%) in which cortication was absent+the IAC had a lingual position+the IAC had a dumbbell shape. Significant relationships were found between IAN injury and the three IAC factors (cortication status, IAC position, and IAC shape; P=0.0001). In patients with the three IAC factors, logistic regression analysis indicated a strong association between these factors and IAN injury (P=0.007). An absence of cortication, a lingually positioned IAC, and a dumbbell-shaped IAC are considered to indicate a high risk of IAN injury according to the logistic regression analysis (P=0.007). These results suggest that a combined assessment of these three IAC factors could be useful for the improved prediction of IAN injury. Copyright © 2017 International Association of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting rotation for ITER via studies of intrinsic torque and momentum transport in DIII-D

DOE PAGES

Chrystal, C.; Grierson, B. A.; Staebler, G. M.; ...

2017-03-30

Here, experiments at the DIII-D tokamak have used dimensionless parameter scans to investigate the dependencies of intrinsic torque and momentum transport in order to inform a prediction of the rotation profile in ITER. Measurements of intrinsic torque profiles and momentum confinement time in dimensionless parameter scans of normalized gyroradius and collisionality are used to predict the amount of intrinsic rotation in the pedestal of ITER. Additional scans of T e/T i and safety factor are used to determine the accuracy of momentum flux predictions of the quasi-linear gyrokinetic code TGLF. In these scans, applications of modulated torque are used tomore » measure the incremental momentum diffusivity, and results are consistent with the E x B shear suppression of turbulent transport. These incremental transport measurements are also compared with the TGLF results. In order to form a prediction of the rotation profile for ITER, the pedestal prediction is used as a boundary condition to a simulation that uses TGLF to determine the transport in the core of the plasma. The predicted rotation is ≈20 krad/s in the core, lower than in many current tokamak operating scenarios. TGLF predictions show that this rotation is still significant enough to have a strong effect on confinement via E x B shear.« less

Modeling and performance metrics of MIMO-SDM systems with different amplification schemes in the presence of mode-dependent loss.

PubMed

Antonelli, Cristian; Mecozzi, Antonio; Shtaif, Mark; Winzer, Peter J

2015-02-09

Mode-dependent loss (MDL) is a major factor limiting the achievable information rate in multiple-input multiple-output space-division multiplexed systems. In this paper we show that its impact on system performance, which we quantify in terms of the capacity reduction relative to a reference MDL-free system, may depend strongly on the operation of the inline optical amplifiers. This dependency is particularly strong in low mode-count systems. In addition, we discuss ways in which the signal-to-noise ratio of the MDL-free reference system can be defined and quantify the differences in the predicted capacity loss. Finally, we stress the importance of correctly accounting for the effect of MDL on the accumulation of amplification noise.

Biodiversity and body size are linked across metazoans

PubMed Central

McClain, Craig R.; Boyer, Alison G.

2009-01-01

Body size variation across the Metazoa is immense, encompassing 17 orders of magnitude in biovolume. Factors driving this extreme diversification in size and the consequences of size variation for biological processes remain poorly resolved. Species diversity is invoked as both a predictor and a result of size variation, and theory predicts a strong correlation between the two. However, evidence has been presented both supporting and contradicting such a relationship. Here, we use a new comprehensive dataset for maximum and minimum body sizes across all metazoan phyla to show that species diversity is strongly correlated with minimum size, maximum size and consequently intra-phylum variation. Similar patterns are also observed within birds and mammals. The observations point to several fundamental linkages between species diversification and body size variation through the evolution of animal life. PMID:19324730

Interacting Electrons and Holes in Quasi-2D Quantum Dots in Strong Magnetic Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hawrylak, P.; Sheng, W.; Cheng, S.-J.

2004-09-01

Theory of optical properties of interacting electrons and holes in quasi-2D quantum dots in strong magnetic fields is discussed. In two dimensions and the lowest Landau level, hidden symmetries control the interaction of the interacting system with light. By confining electrons and holes into quantum dots hidden symmetries can be removed and the excitation spectrum of electrons and excitons can be observed. We discuss a theory electronic and of excitonic quantum Hall droplets at a filling factorν=2. For an excitonic quantum Hall droplet the characteristic emission spectra are predicted to be related to the total spin of electron and hole configurations. For the electronic droplet the excitation spectrum of the droplet can be mapped out by measuring the emission for increasing number of electrons.

Inflammatory Genes and Psychological Factors Predict Induced Shoulder Pain Phenotype

PubMed Central

George, Steven Z.; Parr, Jeffrey J.; Wallace, Margaret R.; Wu, Samuel S.; Borsa, Paul A.; Dai, Yunfeng; Fillingim, Roger B.

2014-01-01

Purpose The pain experience has multiple influences but little is known about how specific biological and psychological factors interact to influence pain responses. The current study investigated the combined influences of genetic (pro-inflammatory) and psychological factors on several pre-clinical shoulder pain phenotypes. Methods An exercise-induced shoulder injury model was used, and a priori selected genetic (IL1B, TNF/LTA region, IL6 single nucleotide polymorphisms, SNPs) and psychological (anxiety, depressive symptoms, pain catastrophizing, fear of pain, kinesiophobia) factors were included as the predictors of interest. The phenotypes were pain intensity (5-day average and peak reported on numerical rating scale), upper-extremity disability (5-day average and peak reported on the QuickDASH instrument), and duration of shoulder pain (in days). Results After controlling for age, sex, and race, the genetic and psychological predictors were entered separately as main effects and interaction terms in regression models for each pain phenotype. Results from the recruited cohort (n = 190) indicated strong statistical evidence for the interactions between 1) TNF/LTA SNP rs2229094 and depressive symptoms for average pain intensity and duration and 2) IL1B two-SNP diplotype and kinesiophobia for average shoulder pain intensity. Moderate statistical evidence for prediction of additional shoulder pain phenotypes included interactions of kinesiophobia, fear of pain, or depressive symptoms with TNF/LTA rs2229094 and IL1B. Conclusion These findings support the combined predictive ability of specific genetic and psychological factors for shoulder pain phenotypes by revealing novel combinations that may merit further investigation in clinical cohorts, to determine their involvement in the transition from acute to chronic pain conditions. PMID:24598699

Assessing Susceptibility to Age-Related Macular Degeneration With Genetic Markers and Environmental Factors

PubMed Central

Chen, Yuhong; Zeng, Jiexi; Zhao, Chao; Wang, Kevin; Trood, Elizabeth; Buehler, Jeanette; Weed, Matthew; Kasuga, Daniel; Bernstein, Paul S.; Hughes, Guy; Fu, Victoria; Chin, Jessica; Lee, Clara; Crocker, Maureen; Bedell, Matthew; Salasar, Francesca; Yang, Zhenglin; Goldbaum, Michael; Ferreyra, Henry; Freeman, William R.; Kozak, Igor; Zhang, Kang

2014-01-01

Objectives To evaluate the independent and joint effects of genetic factors and environmental variables on advanced forms of age-related macular degeneration (AMD), including geographic atrophy and choroidal neovascularization, and to develop a predictive model with genetic and environmental factors included. Methods Demographic information, including age at onset, smoking status, and body mass index, was collected for 1844 participants. Genotypes were evaluated for 8 variants in 5 genes related to AMD. Unconditional logistic regression analyses were performed to generate a risk predictive model. Results All genetic variants showed a strong association with AMD. Multivariate odds ratios were 3.52 (95% confidence interval, 2.08-5.94) for complement factor H, CFH rs1061170 CC, 4.21 (2.30-7.70) for CFH rs2274700 CC, 0.46 (0.27-0.80) for C2 rs9332739 CC/CG, 0.44 (0.30-0.66) for CFB rs641153 TT/CT, 10.99 (6.04-19.97) for HTRA1/LOC387715 rs10490924 TT, and 2.66 (1.43-4.96) for C3 rs2230199 GG. Smoking was independently associated with advanced AMD after controlling for age, sex, body mass index, and all genetic variants. Conclusion CFH confers more risk to the bilaterality of geographic atrophy, whereas HTRA1/LOC387715 contributes more to the bilaterality of choroidal neovascularization. C3 confers more risk for geographic atrophy than choroidal neovascularization. Risk models with combined genetic and environmental factors have notable discrimination power. Clinical Relevance Early detection and risk prediction of AMD could help to improve the prognosis of AMD and to reduce the outcome of blindness. Targeting high-risk individuals for surveillance and clinical interventions may help reduce disease burden. PMID:21402993

The nature of youth care tasks in families experiencing chronic illness/disability: development of the Youth Activities of Caregiving Scale (YACS).

PubMed

Ireland, Michael James; Pakenham, Kenneth Ian

2010-07-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an empirically derived multi-item scale of care tasks performed by young people in the context of family illness/disability: the Youth Activities of Caregiving Scale (YACS). A total of 135 youngsters aged 10-24 years with an ill/disabled family member completed questionnaires. Factor analyses performed on the YACS yielded four factors, instrumental care, social/emotional care, personal/intimate care and domestic/household care, accounting for 57.78% of the variance. The internal reliabilities of all factors ranged from 0.74 to 0.92. Higher scores on the YACS related to higher youth age and several caregiving context variables (i.e. household type [single or dual-parent household], relationship with care-recipient and perceived choice in caregiving). Higher scores on the YACS also related to care-recipient illness/disability variables (onset, functional impairment, prognosis, predictability and illness/disability type). Strong positive correlations between the YACS and a conceptually related measure of young caregiving experiences provided good convergent validity data. Criterion validity was established with evidence that the YACS predicted youth adjustment in the domains of health and prosocial behaviour.

Effects of child interview tactics on prospective jurors' decisions.

PubMed

Johnson, Jonni L; Shelley, Alexandra E

2014-01-01

Although decisions in child sexual abuse (CSA) cases are influenced by many factors (e.g., child age, juror gender), case and trial characteristics (e.g., interview quality) can strongly influence legal outcomes. In the present study, 319 prospective jurors read about a CSA investigation in which the alleged victim was interviewed at a child advocacy center (CAC) or traditional police setting. The prospective jurors then provided legally relevant ratings (e.g., child credibility, interview quality, defendant guilt). Structural equation modeling techniques revealed that child credibility predicted greater confidence in guilt decisions and also mediated all associations with such decisions. Having fewer negative prior opinions and rating the interview as of better quality were associated with higher child credibility ratings. Mitigating factors (e.g., interview quality), as opposed to proxy indicators (e.g., participant gender), better predicted CSA case outcomes. Similar associations across groups (e.g., CAC interviews did not make child victims more or less credible) permit a tentative conclusion that CACs do not positively or negatively affect decisions made in hypothetical CSA cases. Ideas for future studies examining factors influencing decisions in CSA cases are discussed. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Correlation Between Cerebellar Retraction and Hearing Loss After Microvascular Decompression for Hemifacial Spasm: A Prospective Study.

PubMed

Li, Ning; Zhao, Wei-Guo; Pu, Chun-Hua; Yang, Wen-Lei

2017-06-01

This study prospectively investigated the relationship between cerebellar retraction factors measured on preoperative magnetic resonance and the development of postoperative hearing loss and evaluated their potential role in predicting the possibility of hearing loss after microvascular decompression (MVD) for hemifacial spasm (HFS). The study included 110 patients clinically diagnosed with primary HFS who underwent MVD in our department. The cerebellar retraction factors were quantitatively measured on preoperative magnetic resonance. Associations of cerebellar retraction and other risk factors with postoperative hearing loss were analyzed. Eleven patients (10%) developed nonserviceable hearing loss after MVD. Compared with the group without hearing loss, the cerebellar retraction distance and depth of the group with hearing loss were significantly greater (P < 0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that greater cerebellar retraction depth was significantly associated with the higher incidence of postoperative hearing loss (P < 0.05). The results in this study strongly suggested the correlation between the cerebellar retraction depth and the possibility of hearing loss after MVD for HFS. In addition, cerebellar retraction depth could be considered as a useful tool to predict the risk of post-MVD hearing loss. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Limits to Parapatric Speciation: Dobzhansky–Muller Incompatibilities in a Continent–Island Model

PubMed Central

Bank, Claudia; Bürger, Reinhard; Hermisson, Joachim

2012-01-01

How much gene flow is needed to inhibit speciation by the accumulation of Dobzhansky–Muller incompatibilities (DMIs) in a structured population? Here, we derive these limits in a classical migration–selection model with two haploid or diploid loci and unidirectional gene flow from a continent to an island. We discuss the dependence of the maximum gene-flow rate on ecological factors (exogeneous selection), genetic factors (epistasis, recombination), and the evolutionary history. Extensive analytical and numerical results show the following: (1) The maximum rate of gene flow is limited by exogeneous selection. In particular, maintenance of neutral DMIs is impossible with gene flow. (2) There are two distinct mechanisms that drive DMI evolution in parapatry, selection against immigrants in a heterogeneous environment and selection against hybrids due to the incompatibility. (3) Depending on the mechanism, opposite predictions result concerning the genetic architecture that maximizes the rate of gene flow a DMI can sustain. Selection against immigrants favors evolution of tightly linked DMIs of arbitrary strength, whereas selection against hybrids promotes the evolution of strong unlinked DMIs. In diploids, the fitness of the double heterozygotes is the decisive factor to predict the pattern of DMI stability. PMID:22542972

Beyond abuse: the association among parenting style, abdominal pain, and somatization in IBS patients.

PubMed

Lackner, Jeffrey M; Gudleski, Gregory D; Blanchard, Edward B

2004-01-01

This study assessed the relative strength of the association between abuse, negative parenting style, and somatization in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) patients. Drawing from preclinical stress physiology and abuse research identifying the family social climate as a frequently stronger and independent determinant of long-term health effects than abuse-specific variables, we predicted that negative parenting behaviors would more strongly correlate with somatization than abuse. Subjects were 81 consecutively evaluated patients, who at baseline underwent psychological testing, measuring perceived parental style, abuse history, somatization, and pain. Although abuse correlated with maternal and paternal rejection, abuse was not associated with somatization. Higher levels of rejection and/or hostility among fathers (not mothers) were more strongly correlated with somatization than was abuse. Further, paternal parenting behaviors were more predictive of somatization than abuse, age, and gender. The lack of an association between abuse and somatization is discussed in light of limitations of biopsychosocial IBS models, whose strong focus on "pathological stressors" (e.g., abuse, trauma) as risk factors may overlook the importance of "less extreme" parenting variables in influencing somatic complaints. The relationship between parenting and somatization is discussed in the context of broader behavioral science research linking disruptions in the quality of parenting to dramatic and long-term changes in patterns of stress reactivity and brain abnormalities seen in IBS patients.

Investigating the psychometric properties of the Geriatric Suicide Ideation Scale (GSIS) among community-residing older adults.

PubMed

Heisel, Marnin J; Flett, Gordon L

2016-01-01

To investigate the psychometric properties of the Geriatric Suicide Ideation Scale (GSIS) among community-residing older adults. We recruited 173 voluntary participants, 65 years and older, into a 2+ year longitudinal study of the onset or exacerbation of depressive symptoms and suicide ideation. We assessed the internal consistency of the GSIS and its four component subscales, and its shorter and longer duration test-retest reliability, convergent (depression, social hopelessness, and loneliness), divergent (psychological well-being, life satisfaction, perceived social support, and self-rated health), discriminant (basic and instrumental activities of daily living and social desirability), criterion (history of suicide behavior), and predictive validity (future suicide ideation). The GSIS demonstrated strong test-retest reliability and internal consistency. Baseline GSIS scores were significantly positively associated with suicide risk factors, negatively associated with potential resiliency factors, and not associated with functional impairment or social desirability. GSIS scores significantly differentiated between participants with as compared to those without a history of suicide behavior. Baseline GSIS scores significantly predicted suicide ideation at a 2+ year follow-up assessment. Findings suggest strong measurement characteristics for the GSIS with community-residing older adults, including impressive consistency over time. These results are consistent with research attesting to the empirical and pragmatic strengths of this measure. These findings have implications for the monitoring of suicide risk when aiming to enhance mental health and well-being and prevent suicide in later life.

Consequences of Fluid Lag in Three-Dimensional Hydraulic Fractures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Advani (Deceased), S. H.; Lee, T. S.; Dean, R. H.; Pak, C. K.; Avasthi, J. M.

1997-04-01

Research investigations on three-dimensional (3-D) rectangular hydraulic fracture configurations with varying degrees of fluid lag are reported. This paper demonstrates that a 3-D fracture model coupled with fluid lag (a small region of reduced pressure) at the fracture tip can predict very large excess pressure measurements for hydraulic fracture processes. Predictions of fracture propagation based on critical stress intensity factors are extremely sensitive to the pressure profile at the tip of a propagating fracture. This strong sensitivity to the pressure profile at the tip of a hydraulic fracture is more strongly pronounced in 3-D models versus 2-D models because 3-D fractures are clamped at the top and bottom, and pressures in the 3-D fractures that are far removed from the fracture tip have little effect on the stress intensity factor at the fracture tip. This rationale for the excess pressure mechanism is in marked contrast to the crack tip process damage zone assumptions and attendant high rock fracture toughness value hypotheses advanced in the literature. A comparison with field data is presented to illustrate the proposed fracture fluid pressure sensitivity phenomenon. This paper does not attempt to calculate the length of the fluid lag region in a propagating fracture but instead attempts to show that the pressure profile at the tip of the propagating fracture plays a major role in fracture propagation, and this role is magnified in 3-D models. Int. J. Numer. Anal. Meth. Geomech., vol. 21, 229-240 (1997).

The Transtheoretical model for fruit, vegetable and fish consumption: associations between intakes, stages of change and stage transition determinants

PubMed Central

De Vet, Emely; de Nooijer, Jascha; de Vries, Nanne K; Brug, Johannes

2006-01-01

Background Cardiovascular diseases are caused by multiple behavioral factors, including different dietary factors. We examined to what extent fruit, vegetable and fish consumption are related, and whether behavioral determinants vary across these dietary behaviors from a Transtheoretical model perspective. Methods Data were collected among 1142 participants (T0; response rate 46%) selected from an Internet panel, who were followed-up one-week later (T1; N = 1055, response rate 92%). Mean age was 35.4 (SD = 11.9) years, 35% was male, and most respondents were of Dutch origin (90%). Of the respondents, 13%, 44% and 43% had a low, medium or high level of education, respectively. Electronic questionnaires assessed fruit, vegetable and fish intake (food frequency questionnaires), stages of change, decisional balance and self-efficacy, for each of these three behaviors. Results Stages of change and (changes in) fruit, vegetable and fish intake were only weakly associated; decisional balance and self-efficacy were more strongly associated. Some presumed predictors of stage transitions were similar for fruit, vegetable, and fish intake, i.e., strong pros predicted progress out of precontemplators and low self-efficacy predicted relapse from action/maintenance for all behaviors. However, progress out of contemplation and out of preparation showed different patterns for fruit, vegetable and fish intake. Conclusion The weak associations between intakes and potential determinants for fruit, vegetable, and fish consumption do not warrant an integrated dietary change approach targeting the same determinants for each behavior. PMID:16784520

HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1 Polymorphisms and Risk of Idiopathic Membranous Nephropathy

PubMed Central

Bullich, Gemma; Ballarín, José; Oliver, Artur; Ayasreh, Nadia; Silva, Irene; Santín, Sheila; Díaz-Encarnación, Montserrat M.; Torra, Roser

2014-01-01

Summary Background and objectives Single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within HLA complex class II HLA-DQ α-chain 1 (HLA-DQA1) and M-type phospholipase A2 receptor (PLA2R1) genes were identified as strong risk factors for idiopathic membranous nephropathy (IMN) development in a recent genome-wide association study. Copy number variants (CNVs) within the Fc gamma receptor III (FCGR3) locus have been associated with several autoimmune diseases, but their role in IMN has not been studied. This study aimed to validate the association of HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1 risk alleles with IMN in a Spanish cohort, test the putative association of FCGR3A and FCGR3B CNVs with IMN, and assess the use of these genetic factors to predict the clinical outcome of the disease. Design, settings, participants, & measurements A Spanish cohort of 89 IMN patients and 286 matched controls without nephropathy was recruited between October of 2009 and July of 2012. Case-control studies for SNPs within HLA-DQA1 (rs2187668) and PLA2R1 (rs4664308) genes and CNVs for FCGR3A and FCGR3B genes were performed. The contribution of these polymorphisms to predict clinical outcome and renal function decline was analyzed. Results This study validated the association of these HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1 SNPs with IMN in a Spanish cohort and its increased risk when combining both risk genotypes. No significant association was found between FCGR3 CNVs and IMN. These results revealed that HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1 genotype combination adjusted for baseline proteinuria strongly predicted response to immunosuppressive therapy. HLA-DQA1 genotype adjusted for proteinuria was also linked with renal function decline. Conclusion This study confirms that HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1 genotypes are risk factors for IMN, whereas no association was identified for FCGR3 CNVs. This study provides, for the first time, evidence of the contribution of these HLA-DQA1 and PLA2R1 polymorphisms in predicting IMN response to immunosuppressors and disease progression. Future studies are needed to validate and identify prognostic markers. PMID:24262501

Prediction model to estimate presence of coronary artery disease: retrospective pooled analysis of existing cohorts

PubMed Central

Genders, Tessa S S; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Nieman, Koen; Galema, Tjebbe W; Mollet, Nico R; de Feyter, Pim J; Krestin, Gabriel P; Alkadhi, Hatem; Leschka, Sebastian; Desbiolles, Lotus; Meijs, Matthijs F L; Cramer, Maarten J; Knuuti, Juhani; Kajander, Sami; Bogaert, Jan; Goetschalckx, Kaatje; Cademartiri, Filippo; Maffei, Erica; Martini, Chiara; Seitun, Sara; Aldrovandi, Annachiara; Wildermuth, Simon; Stinn, Björn; Fornaro, Jürgen; Feuchtner, Gudrun; De Zordo, Tobias; Auer, Thomas; Plank, Fabian; Friedrich, Guy; Pugliese, Francesca; Petersen, Steffen E; Davies, L Ceri; Schoepf, U Joseph; Rowe, Garrett W; van Mieghem, Carlos A G; van Driessche, Luc; Sinitsyn, Valentin; Gopalan, Deepa; Nikolaou, Konstantin; Bamberg, Fabian; Cury, Ricardo C; Battle, Juan; Maurovich-Horvat, Pál; Bartykowszki, Andrea; Merkely, Bela; Becker, Dávid; Hadamitzky, Martin; Hausleiter, Jörg; Dewey, Marc; Zimmermann, Elke; Laule, Michael

2012-01-01

Objectives To develop prediction models that better estimate the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations. Design Retrospective pooled analysis of individual patient data. Setting 18 hospitals in Europe and the United States. Participants Patients with stable chest pain without evidence for previous coronary artery disease, if they were referred for computed tomography (CT) based coronary angiography or catheter based coronary angiography (indicated as low and high prevalence settings, respectively). Main outcome measures Obstructive coronary artery disease (≥50% diameter stenosis in at least one vessel found on catheter based coronary angiography). Multiple imputation accounted for missing predictors and outcomes, exploiting strong correlation between the two angiography procedures. Predictive models included a basic model (age, sex, symptoms, and setting), clinical model (basic model factors and diabetes, hypertension, dyslipidaemia, and smoking), and extended model (clinical model factors and use of the CT based coronary calcium score). We assessed discrimination (c statistic), calibration, and continuous net reclassification improvement by cross validation for the four largest low prevalence datasets separately and the smaller remaining low prevalence datasets combined. Results We included 5677 patients (3283 men, 2394 women), of whom 1634 had obstructive coronary artery disease found on catheter based coronary angiography. All potential predictors were significantly associated with the presence of disease in univariable and multivariable analyses. The clinical model improved the prediction, compared with the basic model (cross validated c statistic improvement from 0.77 to 0.79, net reclassification improvement 35%); the coronary calcium score in the extended model was a major predictor (0.79 to 0.88, 102%). Calibration for low prevalence datasets was satisfactory. Conclusions Updated prediction models including age, sex, symptoms, and cardiovascular risk factors allow for accurate estimation of the pretest probability of coronary artery disease in low prevalence populations. Addition of coronary calcium scores to the prediction models improves the estimates. PMID:22692650

CT Texture Analysis of Ex Vivo Renal Stones Predicts Ease of Fragmentation with Shockwave Lithotripsy.

PubMed

Cui, Helen W; Devlies, Wout; Ravenscroft, Samuel; Heers, Hendrik; Freidin, Andrew J; Cleveland, Robin O; Ganeshan, Balaji; Turney, Benjamin W

2017-07-01

Understanding the factors affecting success of extracorporeal shockwave lithotripsy (SWL) would improve informed decision-making on the most appropriate treatment modality for an individual patient. Although stone size and skin-to-stone distance do correlate with fragmentation efficacy, it has been shown that stone composition and architecture, as reflected by structural heterogeneity on CT, are also important factors. This study aims to determine if CT texture analysis (CTTA), a novel, nondestructive, and objective tool that generates statistical metrics reflecting stone heterogeneity, could have utility in predicting likelihood of SWL success. Seven spontaneously passed, intact renal tract stones, were scanned ex vivo using standard CT KUB and micro-CT. The stones were then fragmented in vitro using a clinical lithotripter, after which, chemical composition analysis was performed. CTTA was used to generate a number of metrics that were correlated to the number of shocks needed to fragment the stone. CTTA metrics reflected stone characteristics and composition, and predicted ease of SWL fragmentation. The strongest correlation with number of shocks required to fragment the stone was mean Hounsfield unit (HU) density (r = 0.806, p = 0.028) and a CTTA metric measuring the entropy of the pixel distribution of the stone image (r = 0.804, p = 0.039). Using multiple linear regression analysis, the best model showed that CTTA metrics of entropy and kurtosis could predict 92% of the outcome of number of shocks needed to fragment the stone. This was superior to using stone volume or density. CTTA metrics entropy and kurtosis have been shown in this experimental ex vivo setting to strongly predict fragmentation by SWL. This warrants further investigation in a larger clinical study for the contribution of CT textural metrics as a measure of stone heterogeneity, along with other known clinical factors, to predict likelihood of SWL success.

Return to Work: A Cut-Off of FIM Gain with Montebello Rehabilitation Factor Score in Order to Identify Predictive Factors in Subjects with Acquired Brain Injury

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Return to work (RTW) for people with acquired brain injury (ABI) represents a main objective of rehabilitation: this work presents a strong correlation between personal well-being and quality of life. The aim of this study is to investigate the prognostic factors that can predict RTW after ABI (traumatic or non- traumatic aetiology) in patients without disorders of consciousness (e.g. coma, vegetative or minimally conscious state) at the beginning of their admission to rehabilitation. At the end of a 6-month follow-up after discharge, data were successfully collected in 69 patients. The rehabilitation effectiveness (functional Recovery) between admission and discharge was assessed by Functional Independent Measure (FIM) gain, through the Montebello Rehabilitation Factor Score (MRFS), which was obtained as follows: (discharge FIM—admission FIM)/(Maximum possible FIM—Admission FIM) x 100. The cut-off value (criterion) deriving from MRFS, which helped identify RTW patients, resulted in .659 (sn 88.9%; sp 52.4%). Considering the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE) and the MRFS data, the multivariable binary logistic regression analysis presented 62.96% of correct RTW classification cases, 80.95% of non-RTW leading to an overall satisfactory predictability of 73.91%. The results of the present study suggest that occupational therapy intervention could modify cut-off in patients with an MFRS close to target at the end of an in-hospital rehabilitative program thus developing their capabilities and consequently surpassing cut-off itself. PMID:27780215

Theoretical basal Ca II fluxes for late-type stars: results from magnetic wave models with time-dependent ionization and multi-level radiation treatments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fawzy, Diaa E.; Stȩpień, K.

2018-03-01

In the current study we present ab initio numerical computations of the generation and propagation of longitudinal waves in magnetic flux tubes embedded in the atmospheres of late-type stars. The interaction between convective turbulence and the magnetic structure is computed and the obtained longitudinal wave energy flux is used in a self-consistent manner to excite the small-scale magnetic flux tubes. In the current study we reduce the number of assumptions made in our previous studies by considering the full magnetic wave energy fluxes and spectra as well as time-dependent ionization (TDI) of hydrogen, employing multi-level Ca II atomic models, and taking into account departures from local thermodynamic equilibrium. Our models employ the recently confirmed value of the mixing-length parameter α=1.8. Regions with strong magnetic fields (magnetic filling factors of up to 50%) are also considered in the current study. The computed Ca II emission fluxes show a strong dependence on the magnetic filling factors, and the effect of time-dependent ionization (TDI) turns out to be very important in the atmospheres of late-type stars heated by acoustic and magnetic waves. The emitted Ca II fluxes with TDI included into the model are decreased by factors that range from 1.4 to 5.5 for G0V and M0V stars, respectively, compared to models that do not consider TDI. The results of our computations are compared with observations. Excellent agreement between the observed and predicted basal flux is obtained. The predicted trend of Ca II emission flux with magnetic filling factor and stellar surface temperature also agrees well with the observations but the calculated maximum fluxes for stars of different spectral types are about two times lower than observations. Though the longitudinal MHD waves considered here are important for chromosphere heating in high activity stars, additional heating mechanism(s) are apparently present.

Oil/water/rock wettability: Influencing factors and implications for low salinity water flooding in carbonate reservoirs

DOE PAGES

Chen, Yongqiang; Xie, Quan; Sari, Ahmad; ...

2017-11-21

Wettability of the oil/brine/rock system is an essential petro-physical parameter which governs subsurface multiphase flow behaviour and the distribution of fluids, thus directly affecting oil recovery. Recent studies [1–3] show that manipulation of injected brine composition can enhance oil recovery by shifting wettability from oil-wet to water-wet. However, what factor(s) control system wettability has not been completely elucidated due to incomplete understanding of the geochemical system. To isolate and identify the key factors at play we used in this paper SO 4 2—free solutions to examine the effect of salinity (formation brine/FB, 10 times diluted formation brine/10 dFB, and 100more » times diluted formation brine/100 dFB) on the contact angle of oil droplets at the surface of calcite. We then compared contact angle results with predictions of surface complexation by low salinity water using PHREEQC software. We demonstrate that the conventional dilution approach likely triggers an oil-wet system at low pH, which may explain why the low salinity water EOR-effect is not always observed by injecting low salinity water in carbonated reservoirs. pH plays a fundamental role in the surface chemistry of oil/brine interfaces, and wettability. Our contact angle results show that formation brine triggered a strong water-wet system (35°) at pH 2.55, yet 100 times diluted formation brine led to a strongly oil-wet system (contact angle = 175°) at pH 5.68. Surface complexation modelling correctly predicted the wettability trend with salinity; the bond product sum ([>CaOH 2 +][–COO -] + [>CO 3 -][–NH +] + [>CO 3 -][–COOCa +]) increased with decreasing salinity. Finally, at pH < 6 dilution likely makes the calcite surface oil-wet, particularly for crude oils with high base number. Yet, dilution probably causes water wetness at pH > 7 for crude oils with high acid number.« less

Oil/water/rock wettability: Influencing factors and implications for low salinity water flooding in carbonate reservoirs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chen, Yongqiang; Xie, Quan; Sari, Ahmad

Wettability of the oil/brine/rock system is an essential petro-physical parameter which governs subsurface multiphase flow behaviour and the distribution of fluids, thus directly affecting oil recovery. Recent studies [1–3] show that manipulation of injected brine composition can enhance oil recovery by shifting wettability from oil-wet to water-wet. However, what factor(s) control system wettability has not been completely elucidated due to incomplete understanding of the geochemical system. To isolate and identify the key factors at play we used in this paper SO 4 2—free solutions to examine the effect of salinity (formation brine/FB, 10 times diluted formation brine/10 dFB, and 100more » times diluted formation brine/100 dFB) on the contact angle of oil droplets at the surface of calcite. We then compared contact angle results with predictions of surface complexation by low salinity water using PHREEQC software. We demonstrate that the conventional dilution approach likely triggers an oil-wet system at low pH, which may explain why the low salinity water EOR-effect is not always observed by injecting low salinity water in carbonated reservoirs. pH plays a fundamental role in the surface chemistry of oil/brine interfaces, and wettability. Our contact angle results show that formation brine triggered a strong water-wet system (35°) at pH 2.55, yet 100 times diluted formation brine led to a strongly oil-wet system (contact angle = 175°) at pH 5.68. Surface complexation modelling correctly predicted the wettability trend with salinity; the bond product sum ([>CaOH 2 +][–COO -] + [>CO 3 -][–NH +] + [>CO 3 -][–COOCa +]) increased with decreasing salinity. Finally, at pH < 6 dilution likely makes the calcite surface oil-wet, particularly for crude oils with high base number. Yet, dilution probably causes water wetness at pH > 7 for crude oils with high acid number.« less

Propylene glycol accumulation in critically ill patients receiving continuous intravenous lorazepam infusions.

PubMed

Horinek, Erica L; Kiser, Tyree H; Fish, Douglas N; MacLaren, Robert

2009-12-01

Lorazepam is recommended by the Society of Critical Care Medicine as the preferred agent for sedation of critically ill patients. Intravenous lorazepam contains propylene glycol, which has been associated with toxicity when high doses of lorazepam are administered. To evaluate the accumulation of propylene glycol in critically ill patients receiving lorazepam by continuous infusion and determine factors associated with propylene glycol concentration. A 6-month, retrospective, safety assessment was conducted of adults admitted to the medical intensive care unit who were receiving lorazepam by continuous infusion for 12 hours or more. Propylene glycol serum concentrations were obtained 24-48 hours after continuous-infusion lorazepam was initiated and every 3-5 days thereafter. Propylene glycol accumulation was defined as concentrations of 25 mg/dL or more. Groups with and without propylene glycol accumulation were compared and factors associated with propylene glycol concentration were determined using multivariate correlation regression analyses. Forty-eight propylene glycol serum samples were obtained from 33 patients. Fourteen (42%) patients had propylene glycol accumulation, representing 23 (48%) serum samples. Univariate analyses showed the following factors were related to propylene glycol accumulation: baseline renal dysfunction, presence of alcohol withdrawal, sex, age, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE II) score, rate of lorazepam continuous infusion, and 24-hour lorazepam dose. Multivariate linear regression modeling demonstrated that propylene glycol concentration was strongly associated with the continuous infusion rate and 24-hour dose (adjusted r(2) > or = 0.77; p < 0.001). Independent correlation analyses showed that these 2 variables were so strongly associated with propylene glycol concentration (r(2) > or = 0.71; p < 0.001) that they alone predicted propylene glycol concentration. Seven (21%) patients developed renal dysfunction after continuous-infusion lorazepam was initiated, but associated causes were indeterminable. Other possible propylene glycol-associated adverse effects were not observed. The continuous infusion rate and cumulative 24-hour lorazepam dose are strongly associated with and independently predict propylene glycol concentrations. Despite the absence of confirmed propylene glycol-associated adverse effects, clinicians should be aware that propylene glycol accumulation may occur with continuous-infusion lorazepam.

A three-step approach for the derivation and validation of high-performing predictive models using an operational dataset: congestive heart failure readmission case study.

PubMed

AbdelRahman, Samir E; Zhang, Mingyuan; Bray, Bruce E; Kawamoto, Kensaku

2014-05-27

The aim of this study was to propose an analytical approach to develop high-performing predictive models for congestive heart failure (CHF) readmission using an operational dataset with incomplete records and changing data over time. Our analytical approach involves three steps: pre-processing, systematic model development, and risk factor analysis. For pre-processing, variables that were absent in >50% of records were removed. Moreover, the dataset was divided into a validation dataset and derivation datasets which were separated into three temporal subsets based on changes to the data over time. For systematic model development, using the different temporal datasets and the remaining explanatory variables, the models were developed by combining the use of various (i) statistical analyses to explore the relationships between the validation and the derivation datasets; (ii) adjustment methods for handling missing values; (iii) classifiers; (iv) feature selection methods; and (iv) discretization methods. We then selected the best derivation dataset and the models with the highest predictive performance. For risk factor analysis, factors in the highest-performing predictive models were analyzed and ranked using (i) statistical analyses of the best derivation dataset, (ii) feature rankers, and (iii) a newly developed algorithm to categorize risk factors as being strong, regular, or weak. The analysis dataset consisted of 2,787 CHF hospitalizations at University of Utah Health Care from January 2003 to June 2013. In this study, we used the complete-case analysis and mean-based imputation adjustment methods; the wrapper subset feature selection method; and four ranking strategies based on information gain, gain ratio, symmetrical uncertainty, and wrapper subset feature evaluators. The best-performing models resulted from the use of a complete-case analysis derivation dataset combined with the Class-Attribute Contingency Coefficient discretization method and a voting classifier which averaged the results of multi-nominal logistic regression and voting feature intervals classifiers. Of 42 final model risk factors, discharge disposition, discretized age, and indicators of anemia were the most significant. This model achieved a c-statistic of 86.8%. The proposed three-step analytical approach enhanced predictive model performance for CHF readmissions. It could potentially be leveraged to improve predictive model performance in other areas of clinical medicine.

Childhood hyperactivity/inattention and eating disturbances predict binge eating in adolescence

PubMed Central

Sonneville, Kendrin R.; Calzo, Jerel P.; Horton, Nicholas J.; Field, Alison E.; Crosby, Ross D.; Solmi, Francesca; Micali, Nadia

2015-01-01

Background Identifying childhood predictors of binge eating and understanding risk mechanisms could help improve prevention and detection efforts. The aim of this study was to examine whether features of attention deficit-hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), as well as childhood eating disturbances, predicted binge eating later in adolescence. Method We studied specific risk factors for the development of binge eating during mid-adolescence among 7,120 males and females from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a cohort study of children in the United Kingdom, using data from multiple informants to develop structural equation models. Repeated assessment of eating disturbances during childhood (mid-childhood overeating, late-childhood overeating, and early-adolescent strong desire for food), as well as teacher and parent reported hyperactivity/inattention during mid- and late-childhood, were considered as possible predictors of mid-adolescent binge eating. Results Prevalence of binge eating during mid-adolescence in our sample was 11.6%. The final model of predictors of binge eating during mid-adolescence included direct effects of late-childhood overeating (standardized estimate: 0.145, 95% CI: 0.038, 0.259; p=0.009) and early-adolescent strong desire for food (standardized estimate: 0.088, 95% CI: −0.002, 0.169; p=0.05). Hyperactivity/inattention during late-childhood indirectly predicted binge eating during mid-adolescence (standardized estimate: 0.085, 95% CI: 0.007, 0.128; p=0.03) via late-childhood overeating and early-adolescent strong desire for food. Conclusions Our findings indicate that early ADHD symptoms, in addition to an overeating phenotype, contribute to risk for adolescent binge eating. These findings lend support to the potential role of hyperactivity/inattention in the development of overeating and binge eating. PMID:26098685

Alpha and theta band dynamics related to sentential constraint and word expectancy.

PubMed

Rommers, Joost; Dickson, Danielle S; Norton, James J S; Wlotko, Edward W; Federmeier, Kara D

2017-01-01

Despite strong evidence for prediction during language comprehension, the underlying mechanisms, and the extent to which they are specific to language, remain unclear. Re-analyzing an ERP study, we examined responses in the time-frequency domain to expected and unexpected (but plausible) words in strongly and weakly constraining sentences, and found results similar to those reported in nonverbal domains. Relative to expected words, unexpected words elicited an increase in the theta band (4-7 Hz) in strongly constraining contexts, suggesting the involvement of control processes to deal with the consequences of having a prediction disconfirmed. Prior to critical word onset, strongly constraining sentences exhibited a decrease in the alpha band (8-12 Hz) relative to weakly constraining sentences, suggesting that comprehenders can take advantage of predictive sentence contexts to prepare for the input. The results suggest that the brain recruits domain-general preparation and control mechanisms when making and assessing predictions during sentence comprehension.

Effects of coordination and pressure on sound attenuation, boson peak and elasticity in amorphous solids.

PubMed

DeGiuli, Eric; Laversanne-Finot, Adrien; Düring, Gustavo; Lerner, Edan; Wyart, Matthieu

2014-08-14

Connectedness and applied stress strongly affect elasticity in solids. In various amorphous materials, mechanical stability can be lost either by reducing connectedness or by increasing pressure. We present an effective medium theory of elasticity that extends previous approaches by incorporating the effect of compression, of amplitude e, allowing one to describe quantitative features of sound propagation, transport, the boson peak, and elastic moduli near the elastic instability occurring at a compression ec. The theory disentangles several frequencies characterizing the vibrational spectrum: the onset frequency where strongly-scattered modes appear in the vibrational spectrum, the pressure-independent frequency ω* where the density of states displays a plateau, the boson peak frequency ωBP found to scale as , and the Ioffe-Regel frequency ωIR where scattering length and wavelength become equal. We predict that sound attenuation crosses over from ω(4) to ω(2) behaviour at ω0, consistent with observations in glasses. We predict that a frequency-dependent length scale ls(ω) and speed of sound ν(ω) characterize vibrational modes, and could be extracted from scattering data. One key result is the prediction of a flat diffusivity above ω0, in agreement with previously unexplained observations. We find that the shear modulus does not vanish at the elastic instability, but drops by a factor of 2. We check our predictions in packings of soft particles and study the case of covalent networks and silica, for which we predict ωIR ≈ ωBP. Overall, our approach unifies sound attenuation, transport and length scales entering elasticity in a single framework where disorder is not the main parameter controlling the boson peak, in agreement with observations. This framework leads to a phase diagram where various glasses can be placed, connecting microscopic structure to vibrational properties.

Prediction of first episode of panic attack among white-collar workers.

PubMed

Watanabe, Akira; Nakao, Kazuhisa; Tokuyama, Madoka; Takeda, Masatoshi

2005-04-01

The purpose of the present study was to elucidate a longitudinal matrix of the etiology for first-episode panic attack among white-collar workers. A path model was designed for this purpose. A 5-year, open-cohort study was carried out in a Japanese company. To evaluate the risk factors associated with the onset of a first episode of panic attack, the odds ratios of a new episode of panic attack were calculated by logistic regression. The path model contained five predictor variables: gender difference, overprotection, neuroticism, lifetime history of major depression, and recent stressful life events. The logistic regression analysis indicated that a person with a lifetime history of major depression and recent stressful life events had a fivefold and a threefold higher risk of panic attacks at follow up, respectively. The path model for the prediction of a first episode of panic attack fitted the data well. However, this model presented low accountability for the variance in the ultimate dependent variables, the first episode of panic attack. Three predictors (neuroticism, lifetime history of major depression, and recent stressful life events) had a direct effect on the risk for a first episode of panic attack, whereas gender difference and overprotection had no direct effect. The present model could not fully predict first episodes of panic attack in white-collar workers. To make a path model for the prediction of the first episode of panic attack, other strong predictor variables, which were not surveyed in the present study, are needed. It is suggested that genetic variables are among the other strong predictor variables. A new path model containing genetic variables (e.g. family history etc.) will be needed to predict the first episode of panic attack.

Determinants of seed removal distance by scatter-hoarding rodents in deciduous forests.

PubMed

Moore, Jeffrey E; McEuen, Amy B; Swihart, Robert K; Contreras, Thomas A; Steele, Michael A

2007-10-01

Scatter-hoarding rodents should space food caches to maximize cache recovery rate (to minimize loss to pilferers) relative to the energetic cost of carrying food items greater distances. Optimization models of cache spacing make two predictions. First, spacing of caches should be greater for food items with greater energy content. Second, the mean distance between caches should increase with food abundance. However, the latter prediction fails to account for the effect of food abundance on the behavior of potential pilferers or on the ability of caching individuals to acquire food by means other than recovering their own caches. When considering these factors, shorter cache distances may be predicted in conditions of higher food abundance. We predicted that seed caching distances would be greater for food items of higher energy content and during lower ambient food abundance and that the effect of seed type on cache distance variation would be lower during higher food abundance. We recorded distances moved for 8636 seeds of five seed types at 15 locations in three forested sites in Pennsylvania, USA, and 29 forest fragments in Indiana, U.S.A., across five different years. Seed production was poor in three years and high in two years. Consistent with previous studies, seeds with greater energy content were moved farther than less profitable food items. Seeds were dispersed less far in seed-rich years than in seed-poor years, contrary to predictions of conventional models. Interactions were important, with seed type effects more evident in seed-poor years. These results suggest that, when food is superabundant, optimal cache distances are more strongly determined by minimizing energy cost of caching than by minimizing pilfering rates and that cache loss rates may be more strongly density-dependent in times of low seed abundance.

Multicontextual correlates of adolescent leisure-time physical activity.

PubMed

Graham, Dan J; Wall, Melanie M; Larson, Nicole; Neumark-Sztainer, Dianne

2014-06-01

Adolescent moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) is influenced by many factors. MVPA-promotion interventions would fare better if these multiple determinants were better understood. To simultaneously assess overall and relative contributions of factors from personal, family, friend, school, and neighborhood contexts to adolescent MVPA. It was hypothesized that (1) key correlates would emerge in each context and (2) factors from more- versus less-proximal contexts would relate more strongly to MVPA. Students in grades 6-12 (n=2,793; mean age=14.4 [SD=2.0] years; 53% girls) were recruited from 20 Minnesota public schools in 2009-2010 to participate in the Eating and Activity in Teens 2010 study. Regression analyses conducted in 2013 examined factors related to weekly MVPA. Data were collected from adolescent participants, their parents and friends, school teachers and administrators, and GIS sources. Fifty multicontextual factors explained 25% of MVPA variance for boys and 27% for girls. Personal factors (e.g., self-efficacy) were most predictive of MVPA, followed by social factors (e.g., support for PA); environmental factors (e.g., access to PA resources) were least predictive of adolescent PA. Gender differences emerged for several predictors (e.g., in mutually adjusted analyses, MVPA among girls, but not boys, related positively to distance to trails and MVPA among female friends and fathers, and related negatively to perceived barriers). Stronger linkages exist between adolescent MVPA and more-proximal (personal, family, and friend) factors compared to more-distal (school and neighborhood) factors, suggesting the importance of working with adolescents, their families, and friends to promote PA. Copyright © 2014 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Evolution of Energetic Scaling across the Vertebrate Tree of Life.

PubMed

Uyeda, Josef C; Pennell, Matthew W; Miller, Eliot T; Maia, Rafael; McClain, Craig R

2017-08-01

Metabolism is the link between ecology and physiology-it dictates the flow of energy through individuals and across trophic levels. Much of the predictive power of metabolic theories of ecology derives from the scaling relationship between organismal size and metabolic rate. There is growing evidence that this scaling relationship is not universal, but we have little knowledge of how it has evolved over macroevolutionary time. Here we develop a novel phylogenetic comparative method to investigate how often and in which clades the macroevolutionary dynamics of the metabolic scaling have changed. We find strong evidence that the metabolic scaling relationship has shifted multiple times across the vertebrate phylogeny. However, shifts are rare and otherwise strongly constrained. Importantly, both the estimated slope and intercept values vary widely across regimes, with slopes that spanned across theoretically predicted values such as 2/3 or 3/4. We further tested whether traits such as ecto-/endothermy, genome size, and quadratic curvature with body mass (i.e., energetic constraints at extreme body sizes) could explain the observed pattern of shifts. Though these factors help explain some of the variation in scaling parameters, much of the remaining variation remains elusive. Our results lay the groundwork for further exploration of the evolutionary and ecological drivers of major transitions in metabolic strategy and for harnessing this information to improve macroecological predictions.

Strong-lensing analysis of a complete sample of 12 MACS clusters at z > 0.5: mass models and Einstein radii

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zitrin, Adi; Broadhurst, Tom; Barkana, Rennan; Rephaeli, Yoel; Benítez, Narciso

2011-01-01

We present the results of a strong-lensing analysis of a complete sample of 12 very luminous X-ray clusters at z > 0.5 using HST/ACS images. Our modelling technique has uncovered some of the largest known critical curves outlined by many accurately predicted sets of multiple images. The distribution of Einstein radii has a median value of ≃28 arcsec (for a source redshift of zs˜ 2), twice as large as other lower z samples, and extends to 55 arcsec for MACS J0717.5+3745, with an impressive enclosed Einstein mass of 7.4 × 1014 M⊙. We find that nine clusters cover a very large area (>2.5 arcmin2) of high magnification (μ > 10×) for a source redshift of zs˜ 8, providing primary targets for accessing the first stars and galaxies. We compare our results with theoretical predictions of the standard Λ cold dark matter (ΛCDM) model which we show systematically fall short of our measured Einstein radii by a factor of ≃1.4, after accounting for the effect of lensing projection. Nevertheless, a revised analysis, once arc redshifts become available, and similar analyses of larger samples, is needed in order to establish more precisely the level of discrepancy with ΛCDM predictions.

Decreased GFR estimated by MDRD or Cockcroft-Gault equation predicts incident CVD: the strong heart study.

PubMed

Shara, Nawar M; Resnick, Helaine E; Lu, Li; Xu, Jiaqiong; Vupputuri, Suma; Howard, Barbara V; Umans, Jason G

2009-01-01

Kidney function, expressed as glomerular filtration rate (GFR), is commonly estimated from serum creatinine (Scr) and, when decreased, may serve as a nonclassical risk factor for incident cardiovascular disease (CVD). The ability of estimated GFR (eGFR) to predict CVD events during 5-10 years of follow-up is assessed using data from the Strong Heart Study (SHS), a large cohort with a high prevalence of diabetes. eGFRs were calculated with the abbreviated Modification of Diet in Renal Disease study (MDRD) and the Cockcroft-Gault (CG) equations. These estimates were compared in participants with normal and abnormal Scr. The association between eGFR and incident CVD was assessed. More subjects were labeled as having low eGFR (<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2) by the MDRD or CG equation, than by Scr alone. When Scr was in the normal range, both equations labeled similar numbers of participants as having low eGFRs, although concordance between the equations was poor. However, when Scr was elevated, the MDRD equation labeled more subjects as having low eGFR. Persons with low eGFR had increased risk of CVD. The MDRD and CG equations labeled more participants as having decreased GFR than did Scr alone. Decreased eGFR was predictive of CVD in this American Indian population with a high prevalence of obesity and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

The autophagy marker LC3 strongly predicts immediate mortality after surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Lin, Chih-Wen; Lin, Chih-Che; Lee, Po-Huang; Lo, Gin-Ho; Hsieh, Pei-Min; Koh, Kah Wee; Lee, Chih-Yuan; Chen, Yao-Li; Dai, Chia-Yen; Huang, Jee-Fu; Chuang, Wang-Long; Chen, Yaw-Sen; Yu, Ming-Lung

2017-11-03

The remnant liver's ability to regenerate may affect post-hepatectomy immediate mortality. The promotion of autophagy post-hepatectomy could enhance liver regeneration and reduce mortality. This study aimed to identify predictive factors of immediate mortality after surgical resection for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). A total of 535 consecutive HCC patients who had undergone their first surgical resection in Taiwan were enrolled between 2010 and 2014. Clinicopathological data and immediate mortality, defined as all cause-mortality within three months after surgery, were analyzed. The expression of autophagy proteins (LC3, Beclin-1, and p62) in adjacent non-tumor tissues was scored by immunohistochemical staining. Approximately 5% of patients had immediate mortality after surgery. The absence of LC3, hypoalbuminemia (<3.5 g/dl), high alanine aminotransferase, and major liver surgery were significantly associated with immediate mortality in univariate analyses. Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that absence of LC3 (hazard ratio/95% confidence interval: 40.8/5.14-325) and hypoalbuminemia (2.88/1.11-7.52) were significantly associated with immediate mortality. The 3-month cumulative incidence of mortality was 12.1%, 13.0%, 21.4% and 0.4%, respectively, among patients with absence of LC3 expression, hypoalbuminemia, both, or neither of the two. In conclusion, the absence of LC3 expression in adjacent non-tumor tissues and hypoalbuminemia were strongly predictive of immediate mortality after resection for HCC.

Running speed during training and percent body fat predict race time in recreational male marathoners.

PubMed

Barandun, Ursula; Knechtle, Beat; Knechtle, Patrizia; Klipstein, Andreas; Rüst, Christoph Alexander; Rosemann, Thomas; Lepers, Romuald

2012-01-01

Recent studies have shown that personal best marathon time is a strong predictor of race time in male ultramarathoners. We aimed to determine variables predictive of marathon race time in recreational male marathoners by using the same characteristics of anthropometry and training as used for ultramarathoners. Anthropometric and training characteristics of 126 recreational male marathoners were bivariately and multivariately related to marathon race times. After multivariate regression, running speed of the training units (β = -0.52, P < 0.0001) and percent body fat (β = 0.27, P < 0.0001) were the two variables most strongly correlated with marathon race times. Marathon race time for recreational male runners may be estimated to some extent by using the following equation (r (2) = 0.44): race time ( minutes) = 326.3 + 2.394 × (percent body fat, %) - 12.06 × (speed in training, km/hours). Running speed during training sessions correlated with prerace percent body fat (r = 0.33, P = 0.0002). The model including anthropometric and training variables explained 44% of the variance of marathon race times, whereas running speed during training sessions alone explained 40%. Thus, training speed was more predictive of marathon performance times than anthropometric characteristics. The present results suggest that low body fat and running speed during training close to race pace (about 11 km/hour) are two key factors for a fast marathon race time in recreational male marathoner runners.

The electromagnetic Sigma-to-Lambda hyperon transition form factors at low energies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Granados, Carlos; Leupold, Stefan; Perotti, Elisabetta

Using dispersion theory the low-energy electromagnetic form factors for the transition of a Sigma to a Lambda hyperon are related to the pion vector form factor. The additionally required input, i.e. the two-pion-Sigma-Lambda amplitudes are determined from relativistic next-to-leading-order (NLO) baryon chiral perturbation theory including the baryons from the octet and optionally from the decuplet. Pion rescattering is again taken into account by dispersion theory. It turns out that the inclusion of decuplet baryons is not an option but a necessity to obtain reasonable results. The electric transition form factor remains very small in the whole low-energy region. The magneticmore » transition form factor depends strongly on one not very well determined low-energy constant of the NLO Lagrangian. Furthermore, one obtains reasonable predictive power if this low-energy constant is determined from a measurement of the magnetic transition radius. Such a measurement can be performed at the future Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR).« less

The electromagnetic Sigma-to-Lambda hyperon transition form factors at low energies

DOE PAGES

Granados, Carlos; Leupold, Stefan; Perotti, Elisabetta

2017-06-09

Using dispersion theory the low-energy electromagnetic form factors for the transition of a Sigma to a Lambda hyperon are related to the pion vector form factor. The additionally required input, i.e. the two-pion-Sigma-Lambda amplitudes are determined from relativistic next-to-leading-order (NLO) baryon chiral perturbation theory including the baryons from the octet and optionally from the decuplet. Pion rescattering is again taken into account by dispersion theory. It turns out that the inclusion of decuplet baryons is not an option but a necessity to obtain reasonable results. The electric transition form factor remains very small in the whole low-energy region. The magneticmore » transition form factor depends strongly on one not very well determined low-energy constant of the NLO Lagrangian. Furthermore, one obtains reasonable predictive power if this low-energy constant is determined from a measurement of the magnetic transition radius. Such a measurement can be performed at the future Facility for Antiproton and Ion Research (FAIR).« less

Renal cell carcinoma associated with transcription factor E3 expression and Xp11.2 translocation: incidence, characteristics, and prognosis.

PubMed

Klatte, Tobias; Streubel, Berthold; Wrba, Friedrich; Remzi, Mesut; Krammer, Barbara; de Martino, Michela; Waldert, Matthias; Marberger, Michael; Susani, Martin; Haitel, Andrea

2012-05-01

We studied the characteristics and prognosis of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) associated with Xp11.2 translocation and transcription factor E3 (TFE3) expression and determined the need for genetic analysis in routine diagnostics. Of 848 consecutive cases, 75 showed microscopic features suggestive of Xp11.2 translocation RCC or occurred in patients 40 years or younger. Of these cases, 17 (23%) showed strong nuclear TFE3 immunostaining, which was associated with more advanced tumors and inverse prognosis in univariate (P = .032) but not multivariate (P = .404) analysis. With fluorescence in situ hybridization and polymerase chain reaction, only 2 cases showed alterations of the X chromosome and the ASPL-TFE3 gene fusion, respectively. In our laboratory, the predictive value of TFE3 expression for the Xp11.2 translocation was 12%. Strong nuclear TFE3 expression is associated with metastatic spread and a poor prognosis. In our laboratory, TFE3 is not diagnostic for Xp11.2 translocation RCC. Diagnosis of Xp11.2 translocation RCC may be made only genetically.

Prediction of seasonal runoff in ungauged basins

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Many regions of the world experience strong seasonality in climate (i.e. precipitation and temperature), and strong seasonal runoff variability. Predictable patterns in seasonal water availability are of significant benefit to society because they allow reliable planning and infrastructure developme...

Development and Validation of the Questionnaire of Vaping Craving.

PubMed

Dowd, Ashley N; Motschman, Courtney A; Tiffany, Stephen T

2018-03-12

Craving may represent core motivational processes in tobacco dependence, but there is no psychometrically evaluated measure of craving for e-cigarettes (vaping craving). This research developed and validated a brief measure of vaping craving. The measure was evaluated in two studies. In Study 1, a 42-item questionnaire assessing a wide range of vaping craving content was administered to 209 current e-cigarette users. In Study 2, a 10-item questionnaire derived from Study 1 results was administered to 224 current e-cigarette users. Participants were recruited from Amazon's Mechanical Turk, an online labor market. Principal factor analysis identified the strongest loading items (.815 - .867) on the first extracted factor (77% of the factor variance) for inclusion in a 10-item Questionnaire of Vaping Craving (QVC). This item set, with an internal consistency (α) of .97, focused on desire and intent to vape, and anticipation of positive outcomes related to e-cigarette use. Confirmatory factor analysis revealed the items had strong factor loadings that were significantly predicted by the latent vaping craving construct (ps < .001). Higher vaping craving was significantly associated with the level of e-cigarette use, greater negative mood, and lower confidence in ability to quit vaping (ps < .01). Among participants who also smoked tobacco (87%), vaping craving was more strongly associated with e-cigarette dependence than tobacco dependence. The findings support the reliability and validity of the QVC and suggest it could be used in laboratory and clinical settings as a psychometrically sound measure of vaping craving.

Risk factors perceived predictive of ISA spread in Chile: applications to decision support.

PubMed

Gustafson, L; Antognoli, M; Lara Fica, M; Ibarra, R; Mancilla, J; Sandoval Del Valle, O; Enriquez Sais, R; Perez, A; Aguilar, D; Madrid, E; Bustos, P; Clement, A; Godoy, M G; Johnson, C; Remmenga, M

2014-11-01

Aquaculture is anticipated to be a critical element in future solutions to global food shortage. However, diseases can impede industry efficiency and sustainability. Consequently, diseases can and have led to dramatic re-structuring in industry or regulatory practices. The emergence of infectious salmon anemia (ISA) in Chile is one such example. As in other countries, many mitigations were instituted universally, and many incurred considerable costs as they introduced a new layer of coordination of farming activities of marine sites within common geographic areas (termed 'neighborhoods' or 'barrios'). The aggregate response led to a strong reduction in ISA incidence and impact. However, the relative value of individual mitigations is less clear, especially where response policies were universally applied and retrospective analyses are missing 'controls' (i.e., areas where a mitigation was not applied). Further, re-focusing policies around disease prevention following resolution of an outbreak is important to renew sustainable production; though, again, field data to guide this shift in purpose are often lacking. Expert panels can offer timely decision support in the absence of empirical data. We convened a panel of fish health experts to weight risk factors predictive of ISA virus (ISAV) introduction or spread between Atlantic salmon barrios in Chile. Barrios, rather than sites, were the unit of interest because many of the new mitigations operate at this level and few available studies examine their efficacy. Panelists identified barrio processing plant biosecurity, fallowing strategies, adult live fish transfers, fish and site density, smolt quality, hydrographic connection with other neighborhoods, presence of sea lice (Caligus rogercresseyi), and harvest vessel biosecurity as factors with the greatest predictive strength for ISAV virulent genotype ('HPR-deleted') occurrence. Fewer factors were considered predictive of ISAV HPR0 genotype ('HPR0') occurrence, with greatest strengths assigned to fish and site density, adult live fish transfers, and smolt facility HPR0 status. Field validation based on ISAV and risk factor occurrence after panel completion generally supports expert estimates, and highlights a few factors (e.g., broodstock HPR0 status) less conclusive in the original study. Results inform legislation, industry best management practices and surveillance design. Published by Elsevier B.V.

An attempt at predicting blood β-hydroxybutyrate from Fourier-transform mid-infrared spectra of milk using multivariate mixed models in Polish dairy cattle.

PubMed

Belay, T K; Dagnachew, B S; Kowalski, Z M; Ådnøy, T

2017-08-01

Fourier transform mid-infrared (FT-MIR) spectra of milk are commonly used for phenotyping of traits of interest through links developed between the traits and milk FT-MIR spectra. Predicted traits are then used in genetic analysis for ultimate phenotypic prediction using a single-trait mixed model that account for cows' circumstances at a given test day. Here, this approach is referred to as indirect prediction (IP). Alternatively, FT-MIR spectral variable can be kept multivariate in the form of factor scores in REML and BLUP analyses. These BLUP predictions, including phenotype (predicted factor scores), were converted to single-trait through calibration outputs; this method is referred to as direct prediction (DP). The main aim of this study was to verify whether mixed modeling of milk spectra in the form of factors scores (DP) gives better prediction of blood β-hydroxybutyrate (BHB) than the univariate approach (IP). Models to predict blood BHB from milk spectra were also developed. Two data sets that contained milk FT-MIR spectra and other information on Polish dairy cattle were used in this study. Data set 1 (n = 826) also contained BHB measured in blood samples, whereas data set 2 (n = 158,028) did not contain measured blood values. Part of data set 1 was used to calibrate a prediction model (n = 496) and the remaining part of data set 1 (n = 330) was used to validate the calibration models, as well as to evaluate the DP and IP approaches. Dimensions of FT-MIR spectra in data set 2 were reduced either into 5 or 10 factor scores (DP) or into a single trait (IP) with calibration outputs. The REML estimates for these factor scores were found using WOMBAT. The BLUP values and predicted BHB for observations in the validation set were computed using the REML estimates. Blood BHB predicted from milk FT-MIR spectra by both approaches were regressed on reference blood BHB that had not been used in the model development. Coefficients of determination in cross-validation for untransformed blood BHB were from 0.21 to 0.32, whereas that for the log-transformed BHB were from 0.31 to 0.38. The corresponding estimates in validation were from 0.29 to 0.37 and 0.21 to 0.43, respectively, for untransformed and logarithmic BHB. Contrary to expectation, slightly better predictions of BHB were found when univariate variance structure was used (IP) than when multivariate covariance structures were used (DP). Conclusive remarks on the importance of keeping spectral data in multivariate form for prediction of phenotypes may be found in data sets where the trait of interest has strong relationships with spectral variables. The Authors. Published by the Federation of Animal Science Societies and Elsevier Inc. on behalf of the American Dairy Science Association®. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

Integration of biological data by kernels on graph nodes allows prediction of new genes involved in mitotic chromosome condensation

PubMed Central

Hériché, Jean-Karim; Lees, Jon G.; Morilla, Ian; Walter, Thomas; Petrova, Boryana; Roberti, M. Julia; Hossain, M. Julius; Adler, Priit; Fernández, José M.; Krallinger, Martin; Haering, Christian H.; Vilo, Jaak; Valencia, Alfonso; Ranea, Juan A.; Orengo, Christine; Ellenberg, Jan

2014-01-01

The advent of genome-wide RNA interference (RNAi)–based screens puts us in the position to identify genes for all functions human cells carry out. However, for many functions, assay complexity and cost make genome-scale knockdown experiments impossible. Methods to predict genes required for cell functions are therefore needed to focus RNAi screens from the whole genome on the most likely candidates. Although different bioinformatics tools for gene function prediction exist, they lack experimental validation and are therefore rarely used by experimentalists. To address this, we developed an effective computational gene selection strategy that represents public data about genes as graphs and then analyzes these graphs using kernels on graph nodes to predict functional relationships. To demonstrate its performance, we predicted human genes required for a poorly understood cellular function—mitotic chromosome condensation—and experimentally validated the top 100 candidates with a focused RNAi screen by automated microscopy. Quantitative analysis of the images demonstrated that the candidates were indeed strongly enriched in condensation genes, including the discovery of several new factors. By combining bioinformatics prediction with experimental validation, our study shows that kernels on graph nodes are powerful tools to integrate public biological data and predict genes involved in cellular functions of interest. PMID:24943848

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chrystal, C.; Grierson, B. A.; Staebler, G. M.

Here, experiments at the DIII-D tokamak have used dimensionless parameter scans to investigate the dependencies of intrinsic torque and momentum transport in order to inform a prediction of the rotation profile in ITER. Measurements of intrinsic torque profiles and momentum confinement time in dimensionless parameter scans of normalized gyroradius and collisionality are used to predict the amount of intrinsic rotation in the pedestal of ITER. Additional scans of T e/T i and safety factor are used to determine the accuracy of momentum flux predictions of the quasi-linear gyrokinetic code TGLF. In these scans, applications of modulated torque are used tomore » measure the incremental momentum diffusivity, and results are consistent with the E x B shear suppression of turbulent transport. These incremental transport measurements are also compared with the TGLF results. In order to form a prediction of the rotation profile for ITER, the pedestal prediction is used as a boundary condition to a simulation that uses TGLF to determine the transport in the core of the plasma. The predicted rotation is ≈20 krad/s in the core, lower than in many current tokamak operating scenarios. TGLF predictions show that this rotation is still significant enough to have a strong effect on confinement via E x B shear.« less

Transforming growth factor-β1 promotes breast cancer metastasis by downregulating miR-196a-3p expression.

PubMed

Chen, Yan; Huang, Shai; Wu, Bo; Fang, Jiankai; Zhu, Minsheng; Sun, Li; Zhang, Lifeng; Zhang, Yongsheng; Sun, Maomin; Guo, Lingling; Wang, Shouli

2017-07-25

Transforming growth factor-β1 is considered a key contributor to the progression of breast cancer. MicroRNAs are important factors in the development and progression of many malignancies. In the present study, upon studies of breast cancer cell lines and tissues, we showed that microRNA -196a-3p is decreased by transforming growth factor-β1 in breast cancer cells and associated with breast cancer progression. We identified neuropilin-2 as a target gene of microRNA -196a-3p and showed that it is regulated by transforming growth factor-β1. Moreover, transforming growth factor-β1-mediated inhibition of microRNA -196a-3p and activation of neuropilin-2were required for transforming growth factor-β1-induced migration and invasion of breast cancer cells. In addition, neuropilin-2 expression was suppressed in breast tumors, particularly in triple-negative breast cancers. Collectively, our findings strongly indicate that microRNA -196a-3p is a predictive biomarker of breast cancer metastasis and patient survival and a potential therapeutic target in metastatic breast cancer.

A decline in prosocial language helps explain public disapproval of the US Congress.

PubMed

Frimer, Jeremy A; Aquino, Karl; Gebauer, Jochen E; Zhu, Luke Lei; Oakes, Harrison

2015-05-26

Talking about helping others makes a person seem warm and leads to social approval. This work examines the real world consequences of this basic, social-cognitive phenomenon by examining whether record-low levels of public approval of the US Congress may, in part, be a product of declining use of prosocial language during Congressional debates. A text analysis of all 124 million words spoken in the House of Representatives between 1996 and 2014 found that declining levels of prosocial language strongly predicted public disapproval of Congress 6 mo later. Warm, prosocial language still predicted public approval when removing the effects of societal and global factors (e.g., the September 11 attacks) and Congressional efficacy (e.g., passing bills), suggesting that prosocial language has an independent, direct effect on social approval.

Internal mechanisms underlying anticipatory language processing: Evidence from event-related-potentials and neural oscillations.

PubMed

Li, Xiaoqing; Zhang, Yuping; Xia, Jinyan; Swaab, Tamara Y

2017-07-28

Although numerous studies have demonstrated that the language processing system can predict upcoming content during comprehension, there is still no clear picture of the anticipatory stage of predictive processing. This electroencephalograph study examined the cognitive and neural oscillatory mechanisms underlying anticipatory processing during language comprehension, and the consequences of this prediction for bottom-up processing of predicted/unpredicted content. Participants read Mandarin Chinese sentences that were either strongly or weakly constraining and that contained critical nouns that were congruent or incongruent with the sentence contexts. We examined the effects of semantic predictability on anticipatory processing prior to the onset of the critical nouns and on integration of the critical nouns. The results revealed that, at the integration stage, the strong-constraint condition (compared to the weak-constraint condition) elicited a reduced N400 and reduced theta activity (4-7Hz) for the congruent nouns, but induced beta (13-18Hz) and theta (4-7Hz) power decreases for the incongruent nouns, indicating benefits of confirmed predictions and potential costs of disconfirmed predictions. More importantly, at the anticipatory stage, the strongly constraining context elicited an enhanced sustained anterior negativity and beta power decrease (19-25Hz), which indicates that strong prediction places a higher processing load on the anticipatory stage of processing. The differences (in the ease of processing and the underlying neural oscillatory activities) between anticipatory and integration stages of lexical processing were discussed with regard to predictive processing models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Linking Temperamental Shyness and Social Anxiety in Childhood and Adolescence: Moderating Influences of Sex and Age.

PubMed

Tsui, Tiffany Y L; Lahat, Ayelet; Schmidt, Louis A

2017-10-01

Although childhood shyness has been linked to social anxiety problems, the factors playing a role in this association have gone largely unexplored. Here we examined the potential moderating roles of sex and age on this relation in a sample of 119 (75 girls) children (10-12 years) and adolescents (14-16 years). As predicted, shyness was positively associated with social anxiety symptoms. Sex, but not age, served as a moderating factor in linking shyness and social anxiety. Specifically, shyness was more strongly associated with social anxiety symptoms among girls than boys. These results suggest the importance of considering sex differences when examining the relation between shyness and social anxiety in childhood and adolescence.

Stress-Strain Behavior of Cementitious Materials with Different Sizes

PubMed Central

Zhou, Jikai; Qian, Pingping; Chen, Xudong

2014-01-01

The size dependence of flexural properties of cement mortar and concrete beams is investigated. Bazant's size effect law and modified size effect law by Kim and Eo give a very good fit to the flexural strength of both cement mortar and concrete. As observed in the test results, a strong size effect in flexural strength is found in cement mortar than in concrete. A modification has been suggested to Li's equation for describing the stress-strain curve of cement mortar and concrete by incorporating two different correction factors, the factors contained in the modified equation being established empirically as a function of specimen size. A comparison of the predictions of this equation with test data generated in this study shows good agreement. PMID:24744688

Longitudinal effects of student mobility on three dimensions of elementary school engagement.

PubMed

Gruman, Diana H; Harachi, Tracy W; Abbott, Robert D; Catalano, Richard F; Fleming, Charles B

2008-01-01

Working within the developmental science research framework, this study sought to capture a dynamic and complex view of student mobility. Second- through fifth-grade data (N = 1,003, predominantly Caucasian) were drawn from a longitudinal study, and growth curve analyses allowed for the examination of mobility effects within the context of other factors that put children at risk, including behavior problems and family stress. School changes predicted declines in academic performance and classroom participation but not positive attitude toward school. Time-varying factors such as peer acceptance and teacher support had a positive influence on the growth trajectories of child outcomes. Additionally, teacher support had a particularly strong influence on positive attitudes toward school among children who had more school changes.

Longitudinal Effects of Student Mobility on Three Dimensions of Elementary School Engagement

PubMed Central

Gruman, Diana H.; Harachi, Tracy W.; Abbott, Robert D.; Catalano, Richard F.; Fleming, Charles B.

2013-01-01

Working within the developmental science research framework, this study sought to capture a dynamic and complex view of student mobility. Second- through fifth-grade data (N = 1,003, predominantly Caucasian) were drawn from a longitudinal study, and growth curve analyses allowed for the examination of mobility effects within the context of other factors that put children at risk, including behavior problems and family stress. School changes predicted declines in academic performance and classroom participation but not positive attitude toward school. Time-varying factors such as peer acceptance and teacher support had a positive influence on the growth trajectories of child outcomes. Additionally, teacher support had a particularly strong influence on positive attitudes toward school among children who had more school changes. PMID:19037953

Estimating Time-Varying PCB Exposures Using Person-Specific Predictions to Supplement Measured Values: A Comparison of Observed and Predicted Values in Two Cohorts of Norwegian Women

PubMed Central

Nøst, Therese Haugdahl; Breivik, Knut; Wania, Frank; Rylander, Charlotta; Odland, Jon Øyvind; Sandanger, Torkjel Manning

2015-01-01

Background Studies on the health effects of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) call for an understanding of past and present human exposure. Time-resolved mechanistic models may supplement information on concentrations in individuals obtained from measurements and/or statistical approaches if they can be shown to reproduce empirical data. Objectives Here, we evaluated the capability of one such mechanistic model to reproduce measured PCB concentrations in individual Norwegian women. We also assessed individual life-course concentrations. Methods Concentrations of four PCB congeners in pregnant (n = 310, sampled in 2007–2009) and postmenopausal (n = 244, 2005) women were compared with person-specific predictions obtained using CoZMoMAN, an emission-based environmental fate and human food-chain bioaccumulation model. Person-specific predictions were also made using statistical regression models including dietary and lifestyle variables and concentrations. Results CoZMoMAN accurately reproduced medians and ranges of measured concentrations in the two study groups. Furthermore, rank correlations between measurements and predictions from both CoZMoMAN and regression analyses were strong (Spearman’s r > 0.67). Precision in quartile assignments from predictions was strong overall as evaluated by weighted Cohen’s kappa (> 0.6). Simulations indicated large inter-individual differences in concentrations experienced in the past. Conclusions The mechanistic model reproduced all measurements of PCB concentrations within a factor of 10, and subject ranking and quartile assignments were overall largely consistent, although they were weak within each study group. Contamination histories for individuals predicted by CoZMoMAN revealed variation between study subjects, particularly in the timing of peak concentrations. Mechanistic models can provide individual PCB exposure metrics that could serve as valuable supplements to measurements. Citation Nøst TH, Breivik K, Wania F, Rylander C, Odland JØ, Sandanger TM. 2016. Estimating time-varying PCB exposures using person-specific predictions to supplement measured values: a comparison of observed and predicted values in two cohorts of Norwegian women. Environ Health Perspect 124:299–305; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1409191 PMID:26186800

Prediction of the Aerothermodynamic Environment of the Huygens Probe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hollis, Brian R.; Striepe, Scott A.; Wright, Michael J.; Bose, Deepak; Sutton, Kenneth; Takashima, Naruhisa

2005-01-01

An investigation of the aerothermodynamic environment of the Huygens entry probe has been conducted. A Monte Carlo simulation of the trajectory of the probe during entry into Titan's atmosphere was performed to identify a worst-case heating rate trajectory. Flowfield and radiation transport computations were performed at points along this trajectory to obtain convective and radiative heat-transfer distributions on the probe's heat shield. This investigation identified important physical and numerical factors, including atmospheric CH4 concentration, transition to turbulence, numerical diffusion modeling, and radiation modeling, which strongly influenced the aerothermodynamic environment.

Health risk perception, optimistic bias, and personal satisfaction.

PubMed

Bränström, Richard; Brandberg, Yvonne

2010-01-01

To examine change in risk perception and optimistic bias concerning behavior-linked health threats and environmental health threats between adolescence and young adulthood and how these factors related to personal satisfaction. In 1996 and 2002, 1624 adolescents responded to a mailed questionnaire. Adolescents showed strong positive optimistic bias concerning behaviorlinked risks, and this optimistic bias increased with age. Increase in optimistic bias over time predicted increase in personal satisfaction. The capacity to process and perceive potential threats in a positive manner might be a valuable human ability positively influencing personal satisfaction and well-being.

Quantitative ultrasonic evaluation of engineering properties in metals, composites and ceramics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Vary, A.

1980-01-01

Ultrasonic technology from the perspective of nondestructive evaluation approaches to material strength prediction and property verification is reviewed. Emergent advanced technology involving quantitative ultrasonic techniques for materials characterization is described. Ultrasonic methods are particularly useful in this area because they involve mechanical elastic waves that are strongly modulated by the same morphological factors that govern mechanical strength and dynamic failure processes. It is emphasized that the technology is in its infancy and that much effort is still required before all the available techniques can be transferred from laboratory to industrial environments.

Measurement of attitudes of U.K. dental practitioners to core job constructs.

PubMed

Harris, R V; Ashcroft, A; Burnside, G; Dancer, J M; Smith, D; Grieveson, B

2009-03-01

To develop a measure to identify dental practitioner attitudes towards core job dimensions relating to job satisfaction and motivation and to test this against practice characteristics and provider attributes of U.K. practitioners. an 83-item questionnaire was developed from open-ended interviews with practitioners and use of items in previously used dentist job satisfaction questionnaires. This was subsequently sent to 684 practitioners. Item analysis reduced the item pool to 40 items and factor analysis (PCA) was undertaken. 440 (64%) dentists responded. Factor analysis resulted in six factors being identified as distinguishable job dimensions, overall Cronbach's alpha = 0.88. The factors were: 'restriction in being able to provide quality care (F1)', 'respect from being a dentist (F2)', 'control of work (F3)', 'running a practice (F4)', 'clinical skills (F5)', and 'caring for patients (F6)'. All six factors were correlated with a global job satisfaction score, although F1 was most strongly related (r = 0.60). Regression model analysis revealed that 'whether the dentist worked within the National Health Service or wholly or partly in the private sector' (p < 0.001), 'time since qualification' (p = 0.009), and the position of the dentist within the practice (whether a practice owner or associate dentist), (p = 0.047) were predictive of this factor. Six core job constructs of U.K. practitioners have been identified, together with several practice characteristics and practitioner attributes which predict these factors. The study demonstrates the importance of refining measures of dentists' job satisfaction to take account of the culture and the system in which the practitioner works.

Race/Ethnic Differences in the Associations of the Framingham Risk Factors with Carotid IMT and Cardiovascular Events

PubMed Central

Hoefer, Imo E.; Eijkemans, Marinus J. C.; Asselbergs, Folkert W.; Anderson, Todd J.; Britton, Annie R.; Dekker, Jacqueline M.; Engström, Gunnar; Evans, Greg W.; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Hedblad, Bo; Holewijn, Suzanne; Ikeda, Ai; Kitagawa, Kazuo; Kitamura, Akihiko; de Kleijn, Dominique P. V.; Lonn, Eva M.; Lorenz, Matthias W.; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B.; Nijpels, Giel; Okazaki, Shuhei; O’Leary, Daniel H.; Pasterkamp, Gerard; Peters, Sanne A. E.; Polak, Joseph F.; Price, Jacqueline F.; Robertson, Christine; Rembold, Christopher M.; Rosvall, Maria; Rundek, Tatjana; Salonen, Jukka T.; Sitzer, Matthias; Stehouwer, Coen D. A.; Bots, Michiel L.; den Ruijter, Hester M.

2015-01-01

Background Clinical manifestations and outcomes of atherosclerotic disease differ between ethnic groups. In addition, the prevalence of risk factors is substantially different. Primary prevention programs are based on data derived from almost exclusively White people. We investigated how race/ethnic differences modify the associations of established risk factors with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events. Methods We used data from an ongoing individual participant meta-analysis involving 17 population-based cohorts worldwide. We selected 60,211 participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline with available data on ethnicity (White, Black, Asian or Hispanic). We generated a multivariable linear regression model containing risk factors and ethnicity predicting mean common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and a multivariable Cox regression model predicting myocardial infarction or stroke. For each risk factor we assessed how the association with the preclinical and clinical measures of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease was affected by ethnicity. Results Ethnicity appeared to significantly modify the associations between risk factors and CIMT and cardiovascular events. The association between age and CIMT was weaker in Blacks and Hispanics. Systolic blood pressure associated more strongly with CIMT in Asians. HDL cholesterol and smoking associated less with CIMT in Blacks. Furthermore, the association of age and total cholesterol levels with the occurrence of cardiovascular events differed between Blacks and Whites. Conclusion The magnitude of associations between risk factors and the presence of atherosclerotic disease differs between race/ethnic groups. These subtle, yet significant differences provide insight in the etiology of cardiovascular disease among race/ethnic groups. These insights aid the race/ethnic-specific implementation of primary prevention. PMID:26134404

Race/Ethnic Differences in the Associations of the Framingham Risk Factors with Carotid IMT and Cardiovascular Events.

PubMed

Gijsberts, Crystel M; Groenewegen, Karlijn A; Hoefer, Imo E; Eijkemans, Marinus J C; Asselbergs, Folkert W; Anderson, Todd J; Britton, Annie R; Dekker, Jacqueline M; Engström, Gunnar; Evans, Greg W; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Grobbee, Diederick E; Hedblad, Bo; Holewijn, Suzanne; Ikeda, Ai; Kitagawa, Kazuo; Kitamura, Akihiko; de Kleijn, Dominique P V; Lonn, Eva M; Lorenz, Matthias W; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Nijpels, Giel; Okazaki, Shuhei; O'Leary, Daniel H; Pasterkamp, Gerard; Peters, Sanne A E; Polak, Joseph F; Price, Jacqueline F; Robertson, Christine; Rembold, Christopher M; Rosvall, Maria; Rundek, Tatjana; Salonen, Jukka T; Sitzer, Matthias; Stehouwer, Coen D A; Bots, Michiel L; den Ruijter, Hester M

2015-01-01

Clinical manifestations and outcomes of atherosclerotic disease differ between ethnic groups. In addition, the prevalence of risk factors is substantially different. Primary prevention programs are based on data derived from almost exclusively White people. We investigated how race/ethnic differences modify the associations of established risk factors with atherosclerosis and cardiovascular events. We used data from an ongoing individual participant meta-analysis involving 17 population-based cohorts worldwide. We selected 60,211 participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline with available data on ethnicity (White, Black, Asian or Hispanic). We generated a multivariable linear regression model containing risk factors and ethnicity predicting mean common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) and a multivariable Cox regression model predicting myocardial infarction or stroke. For each risk factor we assessed how the association with the preclinical and clinical measures of cardiovascular atherosclerotic disease was affected by ethnicity. Ethnicity appeared to significantly modify the associations between risk factors and CIMT and cardiovascular events. The association between age and CIMT was weaker in Blacks and Hispanics. Systolic blood pressure associated more strongly with CIMT in Asians. HDL cholesterol and smoking associated less with CIMT in Blacks. Furthermore, the association of age and total cholesterol levels with the occurrence of cardiovascular events differed between Blacks and Whites. The magnitude of associations between risk factors and the presence of atherosclerotic disease differs between race/ethnic groups. These subtle, yet significant differences provide insight in the etiology of cardiovascular disease among race/ethnic groups. These insights aid the race/ethnic-specific implementation of primary prevention.

Combined Analyses of hENT1, TS, and DPD Predict Outcomes of Borderline-resectable Pancreatic Cancer.

PubMed

Yabushita, Yasuhiro; Mori, Ryutaro; Taniguchi, Koichi; Matsuyama, Ryusei; Kumamoto, Takafumi; Sakamaki, Kentaro; Kubota, Kensuke; Endo, Itaru

2017-05-01

Predicting chemosensitivity to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NACRT) in pancreatic cancer is desired. The present study aimed to examine the relationship between intratumoral expression of human equilibrative nucleoside transporter 1 (hENT1), thymidylate synthase (TS), and dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD) and the outcomes of NACRT with gemcitabine (GEM) combined with S-1 in patients with borderline-resectable pancreatic cancer (BRPC). Forty-seven patients who underwent NACRT with GEM plus S-1, following curative surgery, were recruited in our Institution between 2009 and 2012. Immunohistochemical expressions of hENT1, TS, and DPD in fine-needle aspiration (FNA) biopsies and resected specimens were examined. The correlation between these enzyme expressions and long-term outcome was analyzed. In 21 FNA specimens, no relationship between clinical responses to NACRT and long-term survival was found. However, in 47 resected specimens, patients were classified according to the number of favorable hENT1, TS, and DPD expression factors (hENT1 positive/TS negative/DPD negative). The presence of three favorable factors was strongly associated with improved partial response rates to NACRT (p=0.002). Patients with 2 or more favorable factors showed a significantly longer overall survival than the other patients (p=0.002). Combined expression analyses of hENT1, TS, and DPD may predict long-term outcomes in patients with BRPC after NACRT. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Sensitivity to Secondhand Smoke Exposure Predicts Future Smoking Susceptibility

PubMed Central

Wahlgren, Dennis R.; Liles, Sandy; Ji, Ming; Hughes, Suzanne C.; Winickoff, Jonathan P.; Jones, Jennifer A.; Swan, Gary E.; Hovell, Melbourne F.

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Susceptibility to cigarette smoking in tobacco-naive youth is a strong predictor of smoking initiation. Identifying mechanisms that contribute to smoking susceptibility provide information about early targets for smoking prevention. This study investigated whether sensitivity to secondhand smoke exposure (SHSe) contributes to smoking susceptibility. PARTICIPANTS AND METHODS: Subjects were high-risk, ethnically diverse 8- to 13-year-old subjects who never smoked and who lived with at least 1 smoker and who participated in a longitudinal SHSe reduction intervention trial. Reactions (eg, feeling dizzy) to SHSe were assessed at baseline, and smoking susceptibility was assessed at baseline and 3 follow-up measurements over 12 months. We examined the SHSe reaction factor structure, association with demographic characteristics, and prediction of longitudinal smoking susceptibility status. RESULTS: Factor analysis identified “physically unpleasant” and “pleasant” reaction factors. Reported SHSe reactions did not differ across gender or family smoking history. More black preteens reported feeling relaxed and calm, and fewer reported feeling a head rush or buzz compared with non-Hispanic white and Hispanic white counterparts. Longitudinally, 8.5% of subjects tracked along the trajectory for high (versus low) smoking susceptibility. Reporting SHSe as “unpleasant or gross” predicted a 78% reduction in the probability of being assigned to the high–smoking susceptibility trajectory (odds ratio: 0.22 [95% confidence interval: 0.05–0.95]), after covariate adjustment. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of SHSe sensitivity is a novel approach to the study of cigarette initiation etiology and informs prevention interventions. PMID:21746728

Using Mason number to predict MR damper performance from limited test data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Becnel, Andrew C.; Wereley, Norman M.

2017-05-01

The Mason number can be used to produce a single master curve which relates MR fluid stress versus strain rate behavior across a wide range of shear rates, temperatures, and applied magnetic fields. As applications of MR fluid energy absorbers expand to a variety of industries and operating environments, Mason number analysis offers a path to designing devices with desired performance from a minimal set of preliminary test data. Temperature strongly affects the off-state viscosity of the fluid, as the passive viscous force drops considerably at higher temperatures. Yield stress is not similarly affected, and stays relatively constant with changing temperature. In this study, a small model-scale MR fluid rotary energy absorber is used to measure the temperature correction factor of a commercially-available MR fluid from LORD Corporation. This temperature correction factor is identified from shear stress vs. shear rate data collected at four different temperatures. Measurements of the MR fluid yield stress are also obtained and related to a standard empirical formula. From these two MR fluid properties - temperature-dependent viscosity and yield stress - the temperature-corrected Mason number is shown to predict the force vs. velocity performance of a full-scale rotary MR fluid energy absorber. This analysis technique expands the design space of MR devices to high shear rates and allows for comprehensive predictions of overall performance across a wide range of operating conditions from knowledge only of the yield stress vs. applied magnetic field and a temperature-dependent viscosity correction factor.

Methods to calibrate and scale axial distances in confocal microscopy as a function of refractive index.

PubMed

Besseling, T H; Jose, J; Van Blaaderen, A

2015-02-01

Accurate distance measurement in 3D confocal microscopy is important for quantitative analysis, volume visualization and image restoration. However, axial distances can be distorted by both the point spread function (PSF) and by a refractive-index mismatch between the sample and immersion liquid, which are difficult to separate. Additionally, accurate calibration of the axial distances in confocal microscopy remains cumbersome, although several high-end methods exist. In this paper we present two methods to calibrate axial distances in 3D confocal microscopy that are both accurate and easily implemented. With these methods, we measured axial scaling factors as a function of refractive-index mismatch for high-aperture confocal microscopy imaging. We found that our scaling factors are almost completely linearly dependent on refractive index and that they were in good agreement with theoretical predictions that take the full vectorial properties of light into account. There was however a strong deviation with the theoretical predictions using (high-angle) geometrical optics, which predict much lower scaling factors. As an illustration, we measured the PSF of a correctly calibrated point-scanning confocal microscope and showed that a nearly index-matched, micron-sized spherical object is still significantly elongated due to this PSF, which signifies that care has to be taken when determining axial calibration or axial scaling using such particles. © 2014 The Authors Journal of Microscopy published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Microscopical Society.

Relapse Risk Assessment for Schizophrenia Patients (RASP): A New Self-Report Screening Tool.

PubMed

Velligan, Dawn; Carpenter, William; Waters, Heidi C; Gerlanc, Nicole M; Legacy, Susan N; Ruetsch, Charles

2018-01-01

The Relapse Assessment for Schizophrenia Patients (RASP) was developed as a six-question self-report screener that measures indicators of Increased Anxiety and Social Isolation to assess patient stability and predict imminent relapse. This paper describes the development and psychometric characteristics of the RASP. The RASP and Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) were administered to patients with schizophrenia (n=166) three separate times. Chart data were collected on a subsample of patients (n=81). Psychometric analyses of RASP included tests of reliability, construct validity, and concurrent validity of items. Factors from RASP were correlated with subscales from PANSS (sensitivity to change and criterion validity [agreement between RASP and evidence of relapse]). Test-retest reliability returned modest to strong agreement at the item level and strong agreement at the questionnaire level. RASP showed good item response curves and internal consistency for the total instrument and within each of the two subscales (Increased Anxiety and Social Isolation). RASP Total Score and subscales showed good concurrent validity when correlated with PANSS Total Score, Positive, Excitement, and Anxiety subscales. RASP correctly predicted relapse in 67% of cases, with good specificity and negative predictive power and acceptable positive predictive power and sensitivity. The reliability and validity data presented support the use of RASP in settings where addition of a brief self-report assessment of relapse risk among patients with schizophrenia may be of benefit. Ease of use and scoring, and the ability to administer without clinical supervision allows for routine administration and assessment of relapse risk.

Relation between age and carotid artery intima-medial thickness: a systematic review.

PubMed

van den Munckhof, Inge C L; Jones, Helen; Hopman, Maria T E; de Graaf, Jacqueline; Nyakayiru, Jean; van Dijk, Bart; Eijsvogels, Thijs M H; Thijssen, Dick H J

2018-05-12

Carotid artery intima-medial thickness (cIMT) represents a popular measure of atherosclerosis and is predictive of future cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. Although older age is associated with a higher cIMT, little is known about whether this increase in cIMT follows a linear relationship with age or it is affected under influence of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) or CVD risk factors. We hypothesize that the relationship between cIMT and age is nonlinear and is affected by CVD or risk factors. A systematic review of studies that examined cIMT in the general population and human populations free from CVD/risk factors was undertaken. The literature search was conducted in PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science. Seventeen studies with 32 unique study populations, involving 10,124 healthy individuals free from CVD risk factors, were included. Furthermore, 58 studies with 115 unique study populations were included, involving 65,774 individuals from the general population (with and without CVD risk factors). A strong positive association was evident between age and cIMT in the healthy population, demonstrating a gradual, linear increase in cIMT that did not differ between age decades (r = 0.91, P < 0.001). Although populations with individuals with CVD demonstrated a higher cIMT compared to populations free of CVD, a linear relation between age and cIMT was also present in this population. Our data suggest that cIMT is strongly and linearly related to age. This linear relationship was not affected by CVD or risk factors. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Association of substance use disorders with childhood trauma but not African genetic heritage in an African American cohort.

PubMed

Ducci, Francesca; Roy, Alec; Shen, Pei-Hong; Yuan, Qiaoping; Yuan, Nicole P; Hodgkinson, Colin A; Goldman, Lynn R; Goldman, David

2009-09-01

Genetic variation influences differential vulnerability to addiction within populations. However, it remains unclear whether differences in frequencies of vulnerability alleles contribute to disparities between populations and to what extent ancestry correlates with differential exposure to environmental risk factors, including poverty and trauma. The authors used 186 ancestry-informative markers to measure African ancestry in 407 addicts and 457 comparison subjects self-identified as African Americans. The reference group was 1,051 individuals from the Human Genome Diversity Cell Line Panel, which includes 51 diverse populations representing most worldwide genetic diversity. African Americans varied in degrees of African, European, Middle Eastern, and Central Asian genetic heritage. The overall level of African ancestry was actually smaller among cocaine, opiate, and alcohol addicts (proportion=0.76-0.78) than nonaddicted African American comparison subjects (proportion=0.81). African ancestry was associated with living in impoverished neighborhoods, a factor previously associated with risk. There was no association between African ancestry and exposure to childhood abuse or neglect, a factor that strongly predicted all types of addictions. These results suggest that African genetic heritage does not increase the likelihood of genetic risk for addictions. They highlight the complex interrelation between genetic ancestry and social, economic, and environmental conditions and the strong relation of those factors to addiction. Studies of epidemiological samples characterized for genetic ancestry and social, psychological, demographic, economic, cultural, and historical factors are needed to better disentangle the effects of genetic and environmental factors underlying interpopulation differences in vulnerability to addiction and other health disparities.

Association of Substance Use Disorders With Childhood Trauma but not African Genetic Heritage in an African American Cohort

PubMed Central

Ducci, Francesca; Roy, Alec; Shen, Pei-Hong; Yuan, Qiaoping; Yuan, Nicole P.; Hodgkinson, Colin A.; Goldman, Lynn R.; Goldman, David

2009-01-01

Objective Genetic variation influences differential vulnerability to addiction within populations. However, it remains unclear whether differences in frequencies of vulnerability alleles contribute to disparities between populations and to what extent ancestry correlates with differential exposure to environmental risk factors, including poverty and trauma. Method The authors used 186 ancestry-informative markers to measure African ancestry in 407 addicts and 457 comparison subjects self-identified as African Americans. The reference group was 1,051 individuals from the Human Genome Diversity Cell Line Panel, which includes 51 diverse populations representing most worldwide genetic diversity. Results African Americans varied in degrees of African, European, Middle Eastern, and Central Asian genetic heritage. The overall level of African ancestry was actually smaller among cocaine, opiate, and alcohol addicts (proportion=0.76–0.78) than nonaddicted African American comparison subjects (proportion=0.81). African ancestry was associated with living in impoverished neighborhoods, a factor previously associated with risk. There was no association between African ancestry and exposure to childhood abuse or neglect, a factor that strongly predicted all types of addictions. Conclusions These results suggest that African genetic heritage does not increase the likelihood of genetic risk for addictions. They highlight the complex interrelation between genetic ancestry and social, economic, and environmental conditions and the strong relation of those factors to addiction. Studies of epidemiological samples characterized for genetic ancestry and social, psychological, demographic, economic, cultural, and historical factors are needed to better disentangle the effects of genetic and environmental factors underlying interpopulation differences in vulnerability to addiction and other health disparities. PMID:19605534

The association between imported factors and prisoners' mental health: Implications for adaptation and intervention.

PubMed

Bowler, Nicholas; Phillips, Ceri; Rees, Paul

In the United Kingdom (UK) the prison population has increased by around one third since the turn of the millennium amid growing concern over the correctional mission of prisons, the number of prisoners exhibiting mental health difficulties and high levels of recidivism. This study aims to explore the relationship between 'imported' (pre-prison) factors and prisoner mental health status. Prisoners (N = 756) from two UK prisons completed an established measure of mental health (General Health Questionnaire: GHQ-12) and a bespoke survey on pre-prison characteristics and experiences (for example, dispositions, childhood abuse, substance misuse, learning difficulties and employment). Prevalence of mental health difficulties was high, with 40.3% reaching the 'caseness' threshold. Binary logistic regression and odds ratio analyses were used to explore the ability of imported factors to predict mental health 'caseness' and the direction of influence. Collectively, the imported factors correctly predicted the caseness category of 76.5% of participants (p < .001). Pre-prison dispositions proved to be strong predictors of caseness as did childhood sexual abuse and learning difficulties at school. We found the direction of influence of three imported factors differed from all others: unemployment, prior experience of prison and a history of substance misuse. These three factors are associated with a lower rate of mental health caseness. It is of concern that, on release, these same factors are likely to militate against re-integration into society. Imported factors can serve as powerful predictors of 'within-prison' mental health status, but practitioners need to be cognisant of the relative importance and direction of influence of factors, as evidenced by these findings. Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abiotic Factors Affecting Benthic Invertebrate Biomass and Community Structure in a Fourth-Order Rocky Mountain Watershed

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chanat, J. G.; Clements, W. H.; MacDonald, L. H.

2005-05-01

The potential ecological impact of excess streambed sediment resulting from forest management activities is a persistent concern for land managers. This study examined the relationship between streambed sediment, along with other site- and reach-scale abiotic factors, and benthic macroinvertebrate community structure in a 272 km2 basin in the Colorado Front Range. Physical habitat parameters and invertebrates were sampled in late summer at 68 sites located in sixteen stream reaches. Invertebrate data were used to formulate twenty indices of community structure. Multiple regression identified site-level substrate particle size as the most important predictor of six indices, including total density (R2 = 0.22), biomass (R2 = 0.17), and taxa richness (R2 = 0.32). All of the remaining fourteen indices were most strongly predicted by reach-level variables, including discharge (percent shredders, R2 = 0.24; Plecoptera density, R2 = 0.29), and elevation (percent collector-filterers, R2 = 0.28; Trichoptera density, R2 = 0.37). Although the sites represented a wide range of substrate composition and embeddedness, no physical variable associated with fine sediment appeared as a strong predictor of any of the twenty indices. Thus, sediment is not among the most important factors associated with site-to-site variability of benthic community structure in this relatively pristine watershed.

Cardiac stress and inflammatory markers as predictors of heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes: the ADVANCE trial

PubMed Central

Ohkuma, Toshiaki; Jun, Min; Woodward, Mark; Zoungas, Sophia; Cooper, Mark E.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Hamet, Pavel; Mancia, Giuseppe; Williams, Bryan; Welsh, Paul; Sattar, Naveed; Shaw, Jonathan E.; Rahimi, Kazem; Chalmers, John

2018-01-01

Objective This study examined the individual and combined impact of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) on the prediction of heart failure incidence or progression in patients with type 2 diabetes. Research Design and Methods A nested case-cohort study was conducted in 3,098 participants with type 2 diabetes in the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial. Results A higher value of each biomarker was significantly associated with a higher risk of heart failure incidence or progression, after adjustment for major risk factors. The hazard ratios per 1-SD increase were 3.06 (95% CI 2.37-3.96) for NT-proBNP, 1.50 (1.27-1.77) for hs-cTnT, 1.48 (1.27-1.72) for IL-6, and 1.32 (1.12-1.55) for hs-CRP. Addition of NT-proBNP to the model including conventional risk factors meaningfully improved 5-year risk predictive performance (c-statistic 0.8162 to 0.8800; continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI] 73.1%; categorical NRI [<5%, 5-10%, >10% 5-year risk] 24.2%). In contrast, addition of hs-cTnT, IL-6 or hs-CRP did not improve the prediction metrics consistently either in combination or when added to NT-proBNP. Conclusions Only NT-proBNP, strongly and consistently improved prediction of heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes beyond a wide range of clinical risk factors and biomarkers. PMID:28684396

Cardiac Stress and Inflammatory Markers as Predictors of Heart Failure in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes: The ADVANCE Trial.

PubMed

Ohkuma, Toshiaki; Jun, Min; Woodward, Mark; Zoungas, Sophia; Cooper, Mark E; Grobbee, Diederick E; Hamet, Pavel; Mancia, Giuseppe; Williams, Bryan; Welsh, Paul; Sattar, Naveed; Shaw, Jonathan E; Rahimi, Kazem; Chalmers, John

2017-09-01

This study examined the individual and combined effect of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and hs-CRP on the prediction of heart failure incidence or progression in patients with type 2 diabetes. A nested case-cohort study was conducted in 3,098 participants with type 2 diabetes in the Action in Diabetes and Vascular Disease: Preterax and Diamicron Modified Release Controlled Evaluation (ADVANCE) trial. A higher value of each biomarker was significantly associated with a higher risk of heart failure incidence or progression, after adjustment for major risk factors. The hazard ratios per 1-SD increase were 3.06 (95% CI 2.37, 3.96) for NT-proBNP, 1.50 (1.27, 1.77) for hs-cTnT, 1.48 (1.27, 1.72) for IL-6, and 1.32 (1.12, 1.55) for hs-CRP. The addition of NT-proBNP to the model including conventional risk factors meaningfully improved 5-year risk-predictive performance (C statistic 0.8162 to 0.8800; continuous net reclassification improvement [NRI] 73.1%; categorical NRI [<5%, 5-10%, >10% 5-year risk] 24.2%). In contrast, the addition of hs-cTnT, IL-6, or hs-CRP did not improve the prediction metrics consistently in combination or when added to NT-proBNP. Only NT-proBNP strongly and consistently improved the prediction of heart failure in patients with type 2 diabetes beyond a wide range of clinical risk factors and biomarkers. © 2017 by the American Diabetes Association.

TEMPLE: analysing population genetic variation at transcription factor binding sites.

PubMed

Litovchenko, Maria; Laurent, Stefan

2016-11-01

Genetic variation occurring at the level of regulatory sequences can affect phenotypes and fitness in natural populations. This variation can be analysed in a population genetic framework to study how genetic drift and selection affect the evolution of these functional elements. However, doing this requires a good understanding of the location and nature of regulatory regions and has long been a major hurdle. The current proliferation of genomewide profiling experiments of transcription factor occupancies greatly improves our ability to identify genomic regions involved in specific DNA-protein interactions. Although software exists for predicting transcription factor binding sites (TFBS), and the effects of genetic variants on TFBS specificity, there are no tools currently available for inferring this information jointly with the genetic variation at TFBS in natural populations. We developed the software Transcription Elements Mapping at the Population LEvel (TEMPLE), which predicts TFBS, evaluates the effects of genetic variants on TFBS specificity and summarizes the genetic variation occurring at TFBS in intraspecific sequence alignments. We demonstrate that TEMPLE's TFBS prediction algorithms gives identical results to PATSER, a software distribution commonly used in the field. We also illustrate the unique features of TEMPLE by analysing TFBS diversity for the TF Senseless (SENS) in one ancestral and one cosmopolitan population of the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster. TEMPLE can be used to localize TFBS that are characterized by strong genetic differentiation across natural populations. This will be particularly useful for studies aiming to identify adaptive mutations. TEMPLE is a java-based cross-platform software that easily maps the genetic diversity at predicted TFBSs using a graphical interface, or from the Unix command line. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Staphylococcus aureus carriage at admission predicts early-onset pneumonia after burn trauma.

PubMed

Fournier, A; Voirol, P; Krähenbühl, M; Bonnemain, C-L; Fournier, C; Dupuis-Lozeron, E; Pantet, O; Pagani, J-L; Revelly, J-P; Sadeghipour, F; Eggimann, P; Que, Y-A

2017-03-01

Early-onset pneumonia (EOP) is frequent after burn trauma, increasing morbidity in the critical resuscitation phase, which may preclude early aggressive management of burn wounds. Currently, however, preemptive treatment is not recommended. The aim of this study was to identify predictive factors for EOP that may justify early empirical antibiotic treatment. Data for all burn patients requiring ≥4 h mechanical ventilation (MV) who were admitted between January 2001 and October 2012 were extracted from the hospital's computerized information system. We reviewed EOP episodes (≤7 days) among patients who underwent endotracheal aspiration (ETA) within 5 days after admission. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify independent factors associated with EOP. Logistic regression was used to identify factors predicting EOP development. During the study period, 396 burn patients were admitted. ETA was performed within 5 days in 204/290 patients receiving ≥4 h MV. One hundred and eight patients developed EOP; 47 cases were caused by Staphylococcus aureus, 37 by Haemophilus influenzae, and 23 by Streptococcus pneumoniae. Among the 33 patients showing S. aureus positivity on ETA samples, 16 (48.5 %) developed S. aureus EOP. Among the 156 S. aureus non-carriers, 16 (10.2 %) developed EOP. Staphylococcus aureus carriage independently predicted EOP (p < 0.0001). We identified S. aureus carriage as an independent and strong predictor of EOP. As rapid point-of-care testing for S. aureus is readily available, we recommend testing of all patients at admission for burn trauma and the consideration of early preemptive treatment in all positive patients. Further studies are needed to evaluate this new strategy.

Why was Relativity Accepted?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brush, S. G.

Historians of science have published many studies of the reception of Einstein's special and general theories of relativity. Based on a review of these studies, and my own research on the role of the light-bending prediction in the reception of general relativity, I discuss the role of three kinds of reasons for accepting relativity (1) empirical predictions and explanations; (2) social-psychological factors; and (3) aesthetic-mathematical factors. According to the historical studies, acceptance was a three-stage process. First, a few leading scientists adopted the special theory for aesthetic-mathematical reasons. In the second stage, their enthusiastic advocacy persuaded other scientists to work on the theory and apply it to problems currently of interest in atomic physics. The special theory was accepted by many German physicists by 1910 and had begun to attract some interest in other countries. In the third stage, the confirmation of Einstein's light-bending prediction attracted much public attention and forced all physicists to take the general theory of relativity seriously. In addition to light-bending, the explanation of the advance of Mercury's perihelion was considered strong evidence by theoretical physicists. The American astronomers who conducted successful tests of general relativity became defenders of the theory. There is little evidence that relativity was `socially constructed' but its initial acceptance was facilitated by the prestige and resources of its advocates.

Motivation for Treatment and Motivation for Change in Substance-Dependent Patients with Co-Occurring Psychiatric Disorders.

PubMed

de Weert-van Oene, Gerdien H; Gongora, Vanesa; von Sternberg, Kirk; de Jong, Cor A J

2015-01-01

The aims of this study were to examine the relationship between motivation for treatment and for change, and to explore their role in the prediction of treatment completion. The sample was composed of 560 predominantly polydrug-using inpatients with co-occurring psychiatric disorders. Motivation for treatment was assessed with the Motivation for Treatment Scales, and motivation for change was measured with the Readiness to Change Questionnaire. Patients indicated strong motivation to change illegal drug and alcohol use. In initial factor analysis, motivation for treatment and for change did not load on the same factors, confirming that these are distinct domains. Four categories were discerned with respect to readiness for treatment and for change, with low agreement between the two. In performing survival analysis, we found that being in readiness category 4 (RT↑RC↑) was associated with a greater chance of remaining in treatment for a period of 105 days without premature attrition (Log Rank chi-sq=5.000; p=0.02). To a limited extent, intake measures of motivation can be used to predict attrition from treatment. Clinicians can use motivation assessment both for clinical purposes and in the prediction of those who need extra monitoring due to increased risk of premature attrition.

Qualitative modeling of silica plasma etching using neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Byungwhan; Kwon, Kwang Ho

2003-01-01

An etching of silica thin film is qualitatively modeled by using a neural network. The process was characterized by a 23 full factorial experiment plus one center point, in which the experimental factors and ranges include 100-800 W radio-frequency source power, 100-400 W bias power and gas flow rate ratio CHF3/CF4. The gas flow rate ratio varied from 0.2 to 5.0. The backpropagation neural network (BPNN) was trained on nine experiments and tested on six experiments, not pertaining to the original training data. The prediction ability of the BPNN was optimized as a function of the training parameters. Prediction errors are 180 Å/min and 1.33, for the etch rate and anisotropy models, respectively. Physical etch mechanisms were estimated from the three-dimensional plots generated from the optimized models. Predicted response surfaces were consistent with experimentally measured etch data. The dc bias was correlated to the etch responses to evaluate its contribution. Both the source power (plasma density) and bias power (ion directionality) strongly affected the etch rate. The source power was the most influential factor for the etch rate. A conflicting effect between the source and bias powers was noticed with respect to the anisotropy. The dc bias played an important role in understanding or separating physical etch mechanisms.

Collapsing avian community on a Hawaiian island.

PubMed

Paxton, Eben H; Camp, Richard J; Gorresen, P Marcos; Crampton, Lisa H; Leonard, David L; VanderWerf, Eric A

2016-09-01

The viability of many species has been jeopardized by numerous negative factors over the centuries, but climate change is predicted to accelerate and increase the pressure of many of these threats, leading to extinctions. The Hawaiian honeycreepers, famous for their spectacular adaptive radiation, are predicted to experience negative responses to climate change, given their susceptibility to introduced disease, the strong linkage of disease distribution to climatic conditions, and their current distribution. We document the rapid collapse of the native avifauna on the island of Kaua'i that corresponds to changes in climate and disease prevalence. Although multiple factors may be pressuring the community, we suggest that a tipping point has been crossed in which temperatures in forest habitats at high elevations have reached a threshold that facilitates the development of avian malaria and its vector throughout these species' ranges. Continued incursion of invasive weeds and non-native avian competitors may be facilitated by climate change and could also contribute to declines. If current rates of decline continue, we predict multiple extinctions in the coming decades. Kaua'i represents an early warning for the forest bird communities on the Maui and Hawai'i islands, as well as other species around the world that are trapped within a climatic space that is rapidly disappearing.

Collapsing avian community on a Hawaiian island

USGS Publications Warehouse

Paxton, Eben H.; Camp, Richard J.; Gorresen, P. Marcos; Crampton, Lisa H.; Leonard, David L.; VanderWerf, Eric

2016-01-01

The viability of many species has been jeopardized by numerous negative factors over the centuries, but climate change is predicted to accelerate and increase the pressure of many of these threats, leading to extinctions. The Hawaiian honeycreepers, famous for their spectacular adaptive radiation, are predicted to experience negative responses to climate change, given their susceptibility to introduced disease, the strong linkage of disease distribution to climatic conditions, and their current distribution. We document the rapid collapse of the native avifauna on the island of Kaua‘i that corresponds to changes in climate and disease prevalence. Although multiple factors may be pressuring the community, we suggest that a tipping point has been crossed in which temperatures in forest habitats at high elevations have reached a threshold that facilitates the development of avian malaria and its vector throughout these species’ ranges. Continued incursion of invasive weeds and non-native avian competitors may be facilitated by climate change and could also contribute to declines. If current rates of decline continue, we predict multiple extinctions in the coming decades. Kaua‘i represents an early warning for the forest bird communities on the Maui and Hawai‘i islands, as well as other species around the world that are trapped within a climatic space that is rapidly disappearing.

Early pregnancy angiogenic markers and spontaneous abortion: an Odense Child Cohort study.

PubMed

Andersen, Louise B; Dechend, Ralf; Karumanchi, S Ananth; Nielsen, Jan; Joergensen, Jan S; Jensen, Tina K; Christesen, Henrik T

2016-11-01

Spontaneous abortion is the most commonly observed adverse pregnancy outcome. The angiogenic factors soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor are critical for normal pregnancy and may be associated to spontaneous abortion. We investigated the association between maternal serum concentrations of soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor, and subsequent spontaneous abortion. In the prospective observational Odense Child Cohort, 1676 pregnant women donated serum in early pregnancy, gestational week <22 (median 83 days of gestation, interquartile range 71-103). Concentrations of soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor were determined with novel automated assays. Spontaneous abortion was defined as complete or incomplete spontaneous abortion, missed abortion, or blighted ovum <22+0 gestational weeks, and the prevalence was 3.52% (59 cases). The time-dependent effect of maternal serum concentrations of soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor on subsequent late first-trimester or second-trimester spontaneous abortion (n = 59) was evaluated using a Cox proportional hazards regression model, adjusting for body mass index, parity, season of blood sampling, and age. Furthermore, receiver operating characteristics were employed to identify predictive values and optimal cut-off values. In the adjusted Cox regression analysis, increasing continuous concentrations of both soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor were significantly associated with a decreased hazard ratio for spontaneous abortion: soluble Fms-like kinase 1, 0.996 (95% confidence interval, 0.995-0.997), and placental growth factor, 0.89 (95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.93). When analyzed by receiver operating characteristic cut-offs, women with soluble Fms-like kinase 1 <742 pg/mL had an odds ratio for spontaneous abortion of 12.1 (95% confidence interval, 6.64-22.2), positive predictive value of 11.70%, negative predictive value of 98.90%, positive likelihood ratio of 3.64 (3.07-4.32), and negative likelihood ratio of 0.30 (0.19-0.48). For placental growth factor <19.7 pg/mL, odds ratio was 13.2 (7.09-24.4), positive predictive value was 11.80%, negative predictive value was 99.0%, positive likelihood ratio was 3.68 (3.12-4.34), and negative likelihood ratio was 0.28 (0.17-0.45). In the sensitivity analysis of 54 spontaneous abortions matched 1:4 to controls on gestational age at blood sampling, the highest area under the curve was seen for soluble Fms-like kinase 1 in prediction of first-trimester spontaneous abortion, 0.898 (0.834-0.962), and at the optimum cut-off of 725 pg/mL, negative predictive value was 51.4%, positive predictive value was 94.6%, positive likelihood ratio was 4.04 (2.57-6.35), and negative likelihood ratio was 0.22 (0.09-0.54). A strong, novel prospective association was identified between lower concentrations of soluble Fms-like kinase 1 and placental growth factor measured in early pregnancy and spontaneous abortion. A soluble Fms-like kinase 1 cut-off <742 pg/mL in maternal serum was optimal to stratify women at high vs low risk of spontaneous abortion. The cause and effect of angiogenic factor alterations in spontaneous abortions remain to be elucidated. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Water-soluble drug partitioning and adsorption in HEMA/MAA hydrogels.

PubMed

Dursch, Thomas J; Taylor, Nicole O; Liu, David E; Wu, Rong Y; Prausnitz, John M; Radke, Clayton J

2014-01-01

Two-photon confocal microscopy and back extraction with UV/Vis-absorption spectrophotometry quantify equilibrium partition coefficients, k, for six prototypical drugs in five soft-contact-lens-material hydrogels over a range of water contents from 40 to 92%. Partition coefficients were obtained for acetazolamide, caffeine, hydrocortisone, Oregon Green 488, sodium fluorescein, and theophylline in 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate/methacrylic acid (HEMA/MAA, pKa≈5.2) copolymer hydrogels as functions of composition, aqueous pH (2 and 7.4), and salinity. At pH 2, the hydrogels are nonionic, whereas at pH 7.4, hydrogels are anionic due to MAA ionization. Solute adsorption on and nonspecific electrostatic interaction with the polymer matrix are pronounced. To express deviation from ideal partitioning, we define an enhancement or exclusion factor, E ≡ k/φ1, where φ1 is hydrogel water volume fraction. All solutes exhibit E > 1 in 100 wt % HEMA hydrogels owing to strong specific adsorption to HEMA strands. For all solutes, E significantly decreases upon incorporation of anionic MAA into the hydrogel due to lack of adsorption onto charged MAA moieties. For dianionic sodium fluorescein and Oregon Green 488, and partially ionized monoanionic acetazolamide at pH 7.4, however, the decrease in E is more severe than that for similar-sized nonionic solutes. Conversely, at pH 2, E generally increases with addition of the nonionic MAA copolymer due to strong preferential adsorption to the uncharged carboxylic-acid group of MAA. For all cases, we quantitatively predict enhancement factors for the six drugs using only independently obtained parameters. In dilute solution for solute i, Ei is conveniently expressed as a product of individual enhancement factors for size exclusion (Ei(ex)), electrostatic interaction (Ei(el)), and specific adsorption (Ei(ad)):Ei≡Ei(ex)Ei(el)Ei(ad). To obtain the individual enhancement factors, we employ an extended Ogston mesh-size distribution for Ei(ex); Donnan equilibrium for Ei(el); and Henry's law characterizing specific adsorption to the polymer chains for Ei(ad). Predicted enhancement factors are in excellent agreement with experiment. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Parental control, parental warmth, and psychosocial adjustment in a sample of substance-abusing mothers and their school-aged and adolescent children

PubMed Central

Suchman, Nancy E.; Rounsaville, Bruce; DeCoste, Cindy; Luthar, Suniya

2007-01-01

Parenting interventions for substance-abusing adults have been broadly based on two approaches, one emphasizing parental control as a means to managing children’s behavior and the second emphasizing parental warmth and sensitivity as means to fostering children’s psychological development. In this investigation, we examined associations of parental control and parental warmth, respectively, with children’s behavioral and psychological adjustment in a sample of 98 women enrolled in methadone maintenance and their school-aged and adolescent children. Using collateral data collected during the baseline phase of a randomized clinical trial (Luthar, S. S., Suchman, N. E., & Altomare, M. [in press]. Relational Psychotherapy Mothers Group: A randomized clinical trial for substance abusing mothers [in preparation]), we tested predictions that (a) parental control would be more strongly associated with children’s behavioral adjustment and (b) parental warmth would be more strongly associated with children’s psychological adjustment. Both predictions were generally confirmed, although some crossover among parenting and child dimensions was also evident. Results support the theoretical stance that parental limit setting and autonomy support, as well as nurturance and involvement, are important factors, respectively, in children’s behavioral and psychological adjustment. PMID:17175393

Polarized two-photon fluorescence excitation spectra of indole and benzimidazole

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, Bruce E.; Jones, Richard D.; Rehms, Aden A.; Ilich, Predrag; Callis, Patrik R.

1986-03-01

Polarized two-photon fluorescence excitation spectra of indole in hexane, benzimidazole in isopropanol, and benzimidazole cation in methanol-H 2SO 4, all at 0.2 M and 25°C are reported for the excitation range 470-600 nm, the region of their L b, and L a bands. Relative two-photon absorptivities are deduced by correcting for different fluorescence response and are compared to toluene's L b band. The indole integrated absorptivity is about 10 times greater than that of toluene. The L a band of indole appears less dominant than in one-photon but still outweighs the L b band by a factor of 4. The two-photon polarization spectrum for indole indicates that the L a origin lies ≈500-1000 cm -1 above the L b origin in hexane. The benzimidazoles absorb only about twice as strongly as toluene and show strong vibronic peaks; the L a, bands are only faintly seen. Two-photon properties calculated from INDO/S CI wavefunctions with doubly excited configurations are in good agreement with those of indole, but predict the benzimidazole TPA to be several times stronger than observed. For the cation, the predicted results are nearly two orders of magnitude too high.

Aggression, emotional self-regulation, attentional bias, and cognitive inhibition predict risky driving behavior.

PubMed

Sani, Susan Raouf Hadadi; Tabibi, Zahra; Fadardi, Javad Salehi; Stavrinos, Despina

2017-12-01

The present study explored whether aggression, emotional regulation, cognitive inhibition, and attentional bias towards emotional stimuli were related to risky driving behavior (driving errors, and driving violations). A total of 117 applicants for taxi driver positions (89% male, M age=36.59years, SD=9.39, age range 24-62years) participated in the study. Measures included the Ahwaz Aggression Inventory, the Difficulties in emotion regulation Questionnaire, the emotional Stroop task, the Go/No-go task, and the Driving Behavior Questionnaire. Correlation and regression analyses showed that aggression and emotional regulation predicted risky driving behavior. Difficulties in emotion regulation, the obstinacy and revengeful component of aggression, attentional bias toward emotional stimuli, and cognitive inhibition predicted driving errors. Aggression was the only significant predictive factor for driving violations. In conclusion, aggression and difficulties in regulating emotions may exacerbate risky driving behaviors. Deficits in cognitive inhibition and attentional bias toward negative emotional stimuli can increase driving errors. Predisposition to aggression has strong effect on making one vulnerable to violation of traffic rules and crashes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Cowpeas in Northern Ghana and the Factors that Predict Caregivers’ Intention to Give Them to Schoolchildren

PubMed Central

Abizari, Abdul-Razak; Pilime, Nerisa; Armar-Klemesu, Margaret; Brouwer, Inge D.

2013-01-01

Background Cowpeas are important staple legumes among the rural poor in northern Ghana. Our objectives were to assess the iron and zinc content of cowpea landraces and identify factors that predict the intention of mothers/caregivers to give cowpeas to their schoolchildren. Methods and Findings We performed biochemical analysis on 14 landraces of cowpeas and assessed the opinion of 120 caregiver-child pairs on constructs based on the combined model of the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Health Belief Model. We used correlations and multiple regressions to measure simple associations between constructs and identify predictive constructs. Cowpea landraces contained iron and zinc in the range of 4.9–8.2 mg/100 g d.w and 2.7–4.1 mg/100 g d.w respectively. The landraces also contained high amounts of phytate (477–1110 mg/100 g d.w) and polyphenol (327–1055 mg/100 g d.w). Intention of mothers was strongly associated (rs = 0.72, P<0.001) with and predicted (β = 0.63, P<0.001) behaviour. The constructs, barriers (β = –0.42, P = 0.001) and attitudes towards behaviour (β = 0.25, P<0.028), significantly predicted intention albeit the predictive ability of the model was weak. Conclusions We conclude that some cowpea landraces from northern Ghana have appreciable amounts of iron and zinc but probably with poor bioavailability. Attitudes towards giving cowpeas and perception of barriers are important predictors of caregivers’ intention to give cowpeas to their schoolchildren. Finally our results suggest that increasing knowledge on nutritional benefits of cowpeas may increase health values caregivers hold for their children in support of giving cowpeas to schoolchildren. PMID:23951289

Genetic Predisposition to Ischemic Stroke

PubMed Central

Kamatani, Yoichiro; Takahashi, Atsushi; Hata, Jun; Furukawa, Ryohei; Shiwa, Yuh; Yamaji, Taiki; Hara, Megumi; Tanno, Kozo; Ohmomo, Hideki; Ono, Kanako; Takashima, Naoyuki; Matsuda, Koichi; Wakai, Kenji; Sawada, Norie; Iwasaki, Motoki; Yamagishi, Kazumasa; Ago, Tetsuro; Ninomiya, Toshiharu; Fukushima, Akimune; Hozawa, Atsushi; Minegishi, Naoko; Satoh, Mamoru; Endo, Ryujin; Sasaki, Makoto; Sakata, Kiyomi; Kobayashi, Seiichiro; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Nakamura, Motoyuki; Hitomi, Jiro; Kita, Yoshikuni; Tanaka, Keitaro; Iso, Hiroyasu; Kitazono, Takanari; Kubo, Michiaki; Tanaka, Hideo; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Kiyohara, Yutaka; Yamamoto, Masayuki; Sobue, Kenji; Shimizu, Atsushi

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose— The prediction of genetic predispositions to ischemic stroke (IS) may allow the identification of individuals at elevated risk and thereby prevent IS in clinical practice. Previously developed weighted multilocus genetic risk scores showed limited predictive ability for IS. Here, we investigated the predictive ability of a newer method, polygenic risk score (polyGRS), based on the idea that a few strong signals, as well as several weaker signals, can be collectively informative to determine IS risk. Methods— We genotyped 13 214 Japanese individuals with IS and 26 470 controls (derivation samples) and generated both multilocus genetic risk scores and polyGRS, using the same derivation data set. The predictive abilities of each scoring system were then assessed using 2 independent sets of Japanese samples (KyushuU and JPJM data sets). Results— In both validation data sets, polyGRS was shown to be significantly associated with IS, but weighted multilocus genetic risk scores was not. Comparing the highest with the lowest polyGRS quintile, the odds ratios for IS were 1.75 (95% confidence interval, 1.33–2.31) and 1.99 (95% confidence interval, 1.19–3.33) in the KyushuU and JPJM samples, respectively. Using the KyushuU samples, the addition of polyGRS to a nongenetic risk model resulted in a significant improvement of the predictive ability (net reclassification improvement=0.151; P<0.001). Conclusions— The polyGRS was shown to be superior to weighted multilocus genetic risk scores as an IS prediction model. Thus, together with the nongenetic risk factors, polyGRS will provide valuable information for individual risk assessment and management of modifiable risk factors. PMID:28034966

Assessment of left atrial appendage function by transthoracic pulsed Doppler echocardiography: Comparing against transesophageal interrogation and predicting echocardiographic risk factors for stroke.

PubMed

Wai, Shin Hnin; Kyu, Kyu; Galupo, Mary Joyce; Songco, Geronica G; Kong, William K F; Lee, Chi Hang; Yeo, Tiong Cheng; Poh, Kian Keong

2017-10-01

Transesophageal echocardiographic (TEE) findings of left atrial appendage (LAA) thrombus, spontaneous echo contrast (SEC), and LAA dysfunction are established risk factors of cardioembolic stroke. The semi-invasive nature of TEE limits its utility as a routine risk stratification tool. We aim to correlate TEE and transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) pulsed Doppler measurements of LAA flow velocities and use TTE measurements to predict TEE findings. We prospectively measured pulsed Doppler LAA flow velocities in 103 consecutive patients on TEE and TTE. There was a strong correlation between TEE and TTE LAA emptying velocity (LAA E) (r = .88, P < .001) and a moderate correlation between LAA filling velocities (r = .50, P < .001). TTE LAA E predicted the presence of thrombus or SEC independent of atrial fibrillation (AF). To predict the presence of thrombus or SEC, the optimal TTE LAA E cutoff was ≤30 cm/s in all patients (75% sensitive, 90% specific) and ≤31 cm/s in AF patients (80% sensitive, 79% specific). To predict LAA dysfunction (TEE E ≤ 20 cm/s), the optimal TTE LAA E cutoff was ≤27 cm/s (100% sensitive, 89% specific in all patients and 100% sensitive, 74% specific in AF patients). TTE assessment of LAA function is feasible and correlates well with the more invasive TEE method. It predicts the presence of thrombus, SEC, and LAA dysfunction on TEE. TTE LAA assessment has incremental value in thromboembolic risk stratification and should be utilized more frequently. © 2017, Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Predicting frequent emergency department visits among children with asthma using EHR data.

PubMed

Das, Lala T; Abramson, Erika L; Stone, Anne E; Kondrich, Janienne E; Kern, Lisa M; Grinspan, Zachary M

2017-07-01

For children with asthma, emergency department (ED) visits are common, expensive, and often avoidable. Though several factors are associated with ED use (demographics, comorbidities, insurance, medications), its predictability using electronic health record (EHR) data is understudied. We used a retrospective cohort study design and EHR data from one center to examine the relationship of patient factors in 1 year (2013) and the likelihood of frequent ED use (≥2 visits) in the following year (2014), using bivariate and multivariable statistics. We applied and compared several machine-learning algorithms to predict frequent ED use, then selected a model based on accuracy, parsimony, and interpretability. We identified 2691 children. In bivariate analyses, future frequent ED use was associated with demographics, co-morbidities, insurance status, medication history, and use of healthcare resources. Machine learning algorithms had very good AUC (area under the curve) values [0.66-0.87], though fair PPV (positive predictive value) [48-70%] and poor sensitivity [16-27%]. Our final multivariable logistic regression model contained two variables: insurance status and prior ED use. For publicly insured patients, the odds of frequent ED use were 3.1 [2.2-4.5] times that of privately insured patients. Publicly insured patients with 4+ ED visits and privately insured patients with 6+ ED visits in a year had ≥50% probability of frequent ED use the following year. The model had an AUC of 0.86, PPV of 56%, and sensitivity of 23%. Among children with asthma, prior frequent ED use and insurance status strongly predict future ED use. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effect of menopause, anthropometry, nutrition and lifestyle on bone status of women in the northern Mediterranean.

PubMed

Pavicic Zezelj, S; Cvijanovic, O; Micovic, V; Bobinac, D; Crncevic-Orlic, Z; Malatestinic, G

2010-10-01

The purpose of this study was to explore the influence of age, menopause, anthropometry, nutrition and lifestyle on bone status of women of the Northern Mediterranean Region ofCroatia, which is considered the Adriatic Coast of Southeast Europe. Quantitative ultrasound measurement was performed on the women's right heel and the values of the primary parameters (the Broad Ultrasonic Attenuation and the Speed of Sound [BUA and SOS]) were obtained. Dietary data were assessed with specially designed semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. Multiple regression analysis was employed to examine the influence of age and anthropometry, as well as hormonal and nutritional factors on BUA and SOS. In all female subjects, both primary parameters were predicted by menopause. Among nutrition and lifestyle factors, carbohydrates were significant predictors for BUA (beta = -0.151, p < 0.05), and smoking is significant predictor for SOS (beta = -0.113, p < 0.05). In premenopausal women, BUA is significantly predicted by body height (beta = 0.71, p < 0.05) and body mass index (beta = 1.44, p < 0.05). In postmenopausal women, both primary parameters are strongly predicted by age and anthropometric parameters. Besides, SOS is significantly predicted by smoking (beta = -0.18, p < 0.01) and alcohol (beta = -0.13, p < 0.05). Besides, SOS is significantly predicted by smoking (beta = -0.18, p < 0.01) and alcohol (beta = -0.13, p < 0.05). Bone quality in women from the Croatian Mediterranean Region mostly depends on their hormonal status. When the effect of menopause is controlled, bone status becomes dependent on age and anthropometry.

Probabilistic versus deterministic hazard assessment in liquefaction susceptible zones

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Daminelli, Rosastella; Gerosa, Daniele; Marcellini, Alberto; Tento, Alberto

2015-04-01

Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA), usually adopted in the framework of seismic codes redaction, is based on Poissonian description of the temporal occurrence, negative exponential distribution of magnitude and attenuation relationship with log-normal distribution of PGA or response spectrum. The main positive aspect of this approach stems into the fact that is presently a standard for the majority of countries, but there are weak points in particular regarding the physical description of the earthquake phenomenon. Factors like site effects, source characteristics like duration of the strong motion and directivity that could significantly influence the expected motion at the site are not taken into account by PSHA. Deterministic models can better evaluate the ground motion at a site from a physical point of view, but its prediction reliability depends on the degree of knowledge of the source, wave propagation and soil parameters. We compare these two approaches in selected sites affected by the May 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, that caused widespread liquefaction phenomena unusually for magnitude less than 6. We focus on sites liquefiable because of their soil mechanical parameters and water table level. Our analysis shows that the choice between deterministic and probabilistic hazard analysis is strongly dependent on site conditions. The looser the soil and the higher the liquefaction potential, the more suitable is the deterministic approach. Source characteristics, in particular the duration of strong ground motion, have long since recognized as relevant to induce liquefaction; unfortunately a quantitative prediction of these parameters appears very unlikely, dramatically reducing the possibility of their adoption in hazard assessment. Last but not least, the economic factors are relevant in the choice of the approach. The case history of 2012 Emilia-Romagna and Lombardia earthquake, with an officially estimated cost of 6 billions Euros, shows that geological and geophysical investigations necessary to assess a reliable deterministic hazard evaluation are largely justified.

Evidence for climate-driven synchrony of marine and terrestrial ecosystems in northwest Australia.

PubMed

Ong, Joyce J L; Rountrey, Adam N; Zinke, Jens; Meeuwig, Jessica J; Grierson, Pauline F; O'Donnell, Alison J; Newman, Stephen J; Lough, Janice M; Trougan, Mélissa; Meekan, Mark G

2016-08-01

The effects of climate change are difficult to predict for many marine species because little is known of their response to climate variations in the past. However, long-term chronologies of growth, a variable that integrates multiple physical and biological factors, are now available for several marine taxa. These allow us to search for climate-driven synchrony in growth across multiple taxa and ecosystems, identifying the key processes driving biological responses at very large spatial scales. We hypothesized that in northwest (NW) Australia, a region that is predicted to be strongly influenced by climate change, the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon would be an important factor influencing the growth patterns of organisms in both marine and terrestrial environments. To test this idea, we analyzed existing growth chronologies of the marine fish Lutjanus argentimaculatus, the coral Porites spp. and the tree Callitris columellaris and developed a new chronology for another marine fish, Lethrinus nebulosus. Principal components analysis and linear model selection showed evidence of ENSO-driven synchrony in growth among all four taxa at interannual time scales, the first such result for the Southern Hemisphere. Rainfall, sea surface temperatures, and sea surface salinities, which are linked to the ENSO system, influenced the annual growth of fishes, trees, and corals. All four taxa had negative relationships with the Niño-4 index (a measure of ENSO status), with positive growth patterns occurring during strong La Niña years. This finding implies that future changes in the strength and frequency of ENSO events are likely to have major consequences for both marine and terrestrial taxa. Strong similarities in the growth patterns of fish and trees offer the possibility of using tree-ring chronologies, which span longer time periods than those of fish, to aid understanding of both historical and future responses of fish populations to climate variation. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A Refined Prediction Model for Core and Lower Extremity Sprains and Strains Among Collegiate Football Players.

PubMed

Wilkerson, Gary B; Colston, Marisa A

2015-06-01

Researchers have identified high exposure to game conditions, low back dysfunction, and poor endurance of the core musculature as strong predictors for the occurrence of sprains and strains among collegiate football players. To refine a previously developed injury-prediction model through analysis of 3 consecutive seasons of data. Cohort study. National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Football Championship Subdivision football program. For 3 consecutive years, all 152 team members (age = 19.7 ± 1.5 years, height = 1.84 ± 0.08 m, mass = 101.08 ± 19.28 kg) presented for a mandatory physical examination on the day before initiation of preseason practice sessions. Associations between preseason measurements and the subsequent occurrence of a core or lower extremity sprain or strain were established for 256 player-seasons of data. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to identify optimal cut points for dichotomous categorizations of cases as high risk or low risk. Both logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were used to identify a multivariable injury-prediction model with optimal discriminatory power. Exceptionally good discrimination between injured and uninjured cases was found for a 3-factor prediction model that included equal to or greater than 1 game as a starter, Oswestry Disability Index score equal to or greater than 4, and poor wall-sit-hold performance. The existence of at least 2 of the 3 risk factors demonstrated 56% sensitivity, 80% specificity, an odds ratio of 5.28 (90% confidence interval = 3.31, 8.44), and a hazard ratio of 2.97 (90% confidence interval = 2.14, 4.12). High exposure to game conditions was the dominant injury risk factor for collegiate football players, but a surprisingly mild degree of low back dysfunction and poor core-muscle endurance appeared to be important modifiable risk factors that should be identified and addressed before participation.

Predicting Pre-planting Risk of Stagonospora nodorum blotch in Winter Wheat Using Machine Learning Models.

PubMed

Mehra, Lucky K; Cowger, Christina; Gross, Kevin; Ojiambo, Peter S

2016-01-01

Pre-planting factors have been associated with the late-season severity of Stagonospora nodorum blotch (SNB), caused by the fungal pathogen Parastagonospora nodorum, in winter wheat (Triticum aestivum). The relative importance of these factors in the risk of SNB has not been determined and this knowledge can facilitate disease management decisions prior to planting of the wheat crop. In this study, we examined the performance of multiple regression (MR) and three machine learning algorithms namely artificial neural networks, categorical and regression trees, and random forests (RF), in predicting the pre-planting risk of SNB in wheat. Pre-planting factors tested as potential predictor variables were cultivar resistance, latitude, longitude, previous crop, seeding rate, seed treatment, tillage type, and wheat residue. Disease severity assessed at the end of the growing season was used as the response variable. The models were developed using 431 disease cases (unique combinations of predictors) collected from 2012 to 2014 and these cases were randomly divided into training, validation, and test datasets. Models were evaluated based on the regression of observed against predicted severity values of SNB, sensitivity-specificity ROC analysis, and the Kappa statistic. A strong relationship was observed between late-season severity of SNB and specific pre-planting factors in which latitude, longitude, wheat residue, and cultivar resistance were the most important predictors. The MR model explained 33% of variability in the data, while machine learning models explained 47 to 79% of the total variability. Similarly, the MR model correctly classified 74% of the disease cases, while machine learning models correctly classified 81 to 83% of these cases. Results show that the RF algorithm, which explained 79% of the variability within the data, was the most accurate in predicting the risk of SNB, with an accuracy rate of 93%. The RF algorithm could allow early assessment of the risk of SNB, facilitating sound disease management decisions prior to planting of wheat.

A Prospective Cohort Study of Absconsion Incidents in Forensic Psychiatric Settings: Can We Identify Those at High-Risk?

PubMed Central

Cullen, Alexis E.; Jewell, Amelia; Tully, John; Coghlan, Suzanne; Dean, Kimberlie; Fahy, Tom

2015-01-01

Background Incidents of absconsion in forensic psychiatric units can have potentially serious consequences, yet surprisingly little is known about the characteristics of patients who abscond from these settings. The few previous studies conducted to date have employed retrospective designs, and no attempt has been made to develop an empirically-derived risk assessment scale. In this prospective study, we aimed to identify predictors of absconsion over a two-year period and investigate the feasibility of developing a brief risk assessment scale. Methods The study examined a representative sample of 135 patients treated in forensic medium- and low-secure wards. At baseline, demographic, clinical, treatment-related, and offending/behavioural factors were ascertained from electronic medical records and the treating teams. Incidents of absconsion (i.e., failure to return from leave, incidents of escape, and absconding whilst on escorted leave) were assessed at a two-year follow-up. Logistic regression analyses were used to determine the strongest predictors of absconsion which were then weighted according to their ability to discriminate absconders and non-absconders. The predictive utility of a brief risk assessment scale based on these weighted items was evaluated using receiver operator characteristics (ROC). Results During the two-year follow-up period, 27 patients (20%) absconded, accounting for 56 separate incidents. In multivariate analyses, four factors relating to offending and behaviour emerged as the strongest predictors of absconsion: history of sexual offending, previous absconsion, recent inpatient verbal aggression, and recent inpatient substance use. The weighted risk scale derived from these factors had moderate-to-good predictive accuracy (ROC area under the curve: 0.80; sensitivity: 067; specificity: 0.71), a high negative predictive value (0.91), but a low positive predictive value (0.34). Conclusion Potentially-targetable recent behaviours, such as inpatient verbal aggression and substance use, are strong predictors of absconsion in forensic settings; the absence of these factors may enable clinical teams to identify unnecessarily restricted low-risk individuals. PMID:26401653

A Refined Prediction Model for Core and Lower Extremity Sprains and Strains Among Collegiate Football Players

PubMed Central

Wilkerson, Gary B.; Colston, Marisa A.

2015-01-01

Context Researchers have identified high exposure to game conditions, low back dysfunction, and poor endurance of the core musculature as strong predictors for the occurrence of sprains and strains among collegiate football players. Objective To refine a previously developed injury-prediction model through analysis of 3 consecutive seasons of data. Design Cohort study. Setting National Collegiate Athletic Association Division I Football Championship Subdivision football program. Patients or Other Participants For 3 consecutive years, all 152 team members (age = 19.7 ± 1.5 years, height = 1.84 ± 0.08 m, mass = 101.08 ± 19.28 kg) presented for a mandatory physical examination on the day before initiation of preseason practice sessions. Main Outcome Measure(s) Associations between preseason measurements and the subsequent occurrence of a core or lower extremity sprain or strain were established for 256 player-seasons of data. We used receiver operating characteristic analysis to identify optimal cut points for dichotomous categorizations of cases as high risk or low risk. Both logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were used to identify a multivariable injury-prediction model with optimal discriminatory power. Results Exceptionally good discrimination between injured and uninjured cases was found for a 3-factor prediction model that included equal to or greater than 1 game as a starter, Oswestry Disability Index score equal to or greater than 4, and poor wall-sit–hold performance. The existence of at least 2 of the 3 risk factors demonstrated 56% sensitivity, 80% specificity, an odds ratio of 5.28 (90% confidence interval = 3.31, 8.44), and a hazard ratio of 2.97 (90% confidence interval = 2.14, 4.12). Conclusions High exposure to game conditions was the dominant injury risk factor for collegiate football players, but a surprisingly mild degree of low back dysfunction and poor core-muscle endurance appeared to be important modifiable risk factors that should be identified and addressed before participation. PMID:25844856

Stable isotope signatures and trophic-step fractionation factors of fish tissues collected as non-lethal surrogates of dorsal muscle.

PubMed

Busst, Georgina M A; Bašić, Tea; Britton, J Robert

2015-08-30

Dorsal white muscle is the standard tissue analysed in fish trophic studies using stable isotope analyses. As muscle is usually collected destructively, fin tissues and scales are often used as non-lethal surrogates; we examined the utility of scales and fin tissue as muscle surrogates. The muscle, fin and scale δ(15) N and δ(13) C values from 10 cyprinid fish species determined with an elemental analyser coupled with an isotope ratio mass spectrometer were compared. The fish comprised (1) samples from the wild, and (2) samples from tank aquaria, using six species held for 120 days and fed a single food resource. Relationships between muscle, fin and scale isotope ratios were examined for each species and for the entire dataset, with the efficacy of four methods of predicting muscle isotope ratios from fin and scale values being tested. The fractionation factors between the three tissues of the laboratory fishes and their food resource were then calculated and applied to Bayesian mixing models to assess their effect on fish diet predictions. The isotopic data of the three tissues per species were distinct, but were significantly related, enabling estimations of muscle values from the two surrogates. Species-specific equations provided the least erroneous corrections of scale and fin isotope ratios (errors < 0.6‰). The fractionation factors for δ(15) N values were in the range obtained for other species, but were often higher for δ(13) C values. Their application to data from two fish populations in the mixing models resulted in significant alterations in diet predictions. Scales and fin tissue are strong surrogates of dorsal muscle in food web studies as they can provide estimates of muscle values within an acceptable level of error when species-specific methods are used. Their derived fractionation factors can also be applied to models predicting fish diet composition from δ(15) N and δ(13) C values. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting Resident Performance from Preresidency Factors: A Systematic Review and Applicability to Neurosurgical Training.

PubMed

Zuckerman, Scott L; Kelly, Patrick D; Dewan, Michael C; Morone, Peter J; Yengo-Kahn, Aaron M; Magarik, Jordan A; Baticulon, Ronnie E; Zusman, Edie E; Solomon, Gary S; Wellons, John C

2018-02-01

Neurosurgical educators strive to identify the best applicants, yet formal study of resident selection has proved difficult. We conducted a systematic review to answer the following question: What objective and subjective preresidency factors predict resident success? PubMed, ProQuest, Embase, and the CINAHL databases were queried from 1952 to 2015 for literature reporting the impact of preresidency factors (PRFs) on outcomes of residency success (RS), among neurosurgery and all surgical subspecialties. Due to heterogeneity of specialties and outcomes, a qualitative summary and heat map of significant findings were constructed. From 1489 studies, 21 articles met inclusion criteria, which evaluated 1276 resident applicants across five surgical subspecialties. No neurosurgical studies met the inclusion criteria. Common objective PRFs included standardized testing (76%), medical school performance (48%), and Alpha Omega Alpha (43%). Common subjective PRFs included aggregate rank scores (57%), letters of recommendation (38%), research (33%), interviews (19%), and athletic or musical talent (19%). Outcomes of RS included faculty evaluations, in-training/board exams, chief resident status, and research productivity. Among objective factors, standardized test scores correlated well with in-training/board examinations but poorly correlated with faculty evaluations. Among subjective factors, aggregate rank scores, letters of recommendation, and athletic or musical talent demonstrated moderate correlation with faculty evaluations. Standardized testing most strongly correlated with future examination performance but correlated poorly with faculty evaluations. Moderate predictors of faculty evaluations were aggregate rank scores, letters of recommendation, and athletic or musical talent. The ability to predict success of neurosurgical residents using an evidence-based approach is limited, and few factors have correlated with future resident performance. Given the importance of recruitment to the greater field of neurosurgery, these data provide support for a national, prospective effort to improve the study of neurosurgery resident selection. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Damping scaling factors for elastic response spectra for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions: "average" horizontal component

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rezaeian, Sanaz; Bozorgnia, Yousef; Idriss, I.M.; Abrahamson, Norman; Campbell, Kenneth; Silva, Walter

2014-01-01

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for elastic response spectra are typically developed at a 5% viscous damping ratio. In reality, however, structural and nonstructural systems can have other damping ratios. This paper develops a new model for a damping scaling factor (DSF) that can be used to adjust the 5% damped spectral ordinates predicted by a GMPE for damping ratios between 0.5% to 30%. The model is developed based on empirical data from worldwide shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regions. Dependencies of the DSF on potential predictor variables, such as the damping ratio, spectral period, ground motion duration, moment magnitude, source-to-site distance, and site conditions, are examined. The strong influence of duration is captured by the inclusion of both magnitude and distance in the DSF model. Site conditions show weak influence on the DSF. The proposed damping scaling model provides functional forms for the median and logarithmic standard deviation of DSF, and is developed for both RotD50 and GMRotI50 horizontal components. A follow-up paper develops a DSF model for vertical ground motion.

Probing short-range correlations in asymmetric nuclei with quasi-free pair knockout reactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stevens, Sam; Ryckebusch, Jan; Cosyn, Wim; Waets, Andreas

2018-02-01

Short-range correlations (SRC) in asymmetric nuclei with an unusual neutron-to-proton ratio can be studied with quasi-free two-nucleon knockout processes following the collision between accelerated ions and a proton target. We derive an approximate factorized cross section for those SRC-driven p (A ,p‧N1N2) reactions. Our reaction model hinges on the factorization properties of SRC-driven A (e ,e‧N1N2) reactions for which strong indications are found in theory-experiment comparisons. In order to put our model to the test we compare its predictions with results of 12C (p ,p‧ pn) measurements conducted at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) and find a fair agreement. The model can also reproduce characteristic features of SRC-driven two-nucleon knockout reactions, like back-to-back emission of the correlated nucleons. We study the asymmetry dependence of nuclear SRC by providing predictions for the ratio of proton-proton to proton-neutron knockout cross sections for the carbon isotopes 9-15C thereby covering neutron excess values (N - Z) / Z between -0.5 and +0.5.

Alcohol self-control behaviors of adolescents.

PubMed

Glassman, Tavis; Werch, Chudley Chad; Jobli, Edessa

2007-03-01

The aims of the present study were to: (1) factor analyze a 13-item adolescent alcohol self-control behavior scale, (2) examine associations between frequency of self-control behavior use and alcohol consumption, and (3) to determine which self-control behaviors best predict alcohol use and consequences. A confidential standardized survey was used to collect data on participant's 30-day frequency, quantity, and heavy use of alcohol; alcohol-related consequences; and alcohol self-control behaviors. A principal component factor analysis produced the following three components: Healthy Alternatives (alpha=.81), Self-regulation (alpha=.72), and Assertive Communication (alpha=.73). MANOVAs indicated strong associations between frequency of use of the three types of self-control behaviors and alcohol consumption (p values< or =.001). Logistic regression analysis revealed that Self-regulation behaviors were the best predictor for all alcohol use measures and consequences (p values< or =.001). Self-control behaviors differ in their ability to predict alcohol use and consequences. Self-regulation strategies emerged as the most consistent predictor of alcohol use patterns and consequences among adolescents, followed by Healthy Alternatives.

3D Microstructure Effects in Ni-YSZ Anodes: Prediction of Effective Transport Properties and Optimization of Redox Stability

PubMed Central

Pecho, Omar M.; Stenzel, Ole; Iwanschitz, Boris; Gasser, Philippe; Neumann, Matthias; Schmidt, Volker; Prestat, Michel; Hocker, Thomas; Flatt, Robert J.; Holzer, Lorenz

2015-01-01

This study investigates the influence of microstructure on the effective ionic and electrical conductivities of Ni-YSZ (yttria-stabilized zirconia) anodes. Fine, medium, and coarse microstructures are exposed to redox cycling at 950 °C. FIB (focused ion beam)-tomography and image analysis are used to quantify the effective (connected) volume fraction (Φeff), constriction factor (β), and tortuosity (τ). The effective conductivity (σeff) is described as the product of intrinsic conductivity (σ0) and the so-called microstructure-factor (M): σeff = σ0 × M. Two different methods are used to evaluate the M-factor: (1) by prediction using a recently established relationship, Mpred = εβ0.36/τ5.17, and (2) by numerical simulation that provides conductivity, from which the simulated M-factor can be deduced (Msim). Both methods give complementary and consistent information about the effective transport properties and the redox degradation mechanism. The initial microstructure has a strong influence on effective conductivities and their degradation. Finer anodes have higher initial conductivities but undergo more intensive Ni coarsening. Coarser anodes have a more stable Ni phase but exhibit lower YSZ stability due to lower sintering activity. Consequently, in order to improve redox stability, it is proposed to use mixtures of fine and coarse powders in different proportions for functional anode and current collector layers. PMID:28793523

Safeness and Treatment Mitigate the Effect of Loneliness on Satisfaction With Elderly Care

PubMed Central

Kajonius, Petri J.; Kazemi, Ali

2016-01-01

Maximizing satisfaction among the older persons is the goal of modern individualized elderly care and how to best achieve this is of relevance for people involved in planning and providing elderly care services. Purpose of the Study: What predicts satisfaction with care among older persons can be conceived as a function of process (how care is performed) and the older person. Inspired by the long-standing person versus situation debate, the present research investigated the interplay between person- and process-related factors in predicting satisfaction with elderly care. Design and Methods: A nationwide sample was analyzed, based on a questionnaire with 95,000 individuals using elderly care services. Results: The results showed that person-related factors (i.e., anxiety, health, and loneliness) were significant predictors of satisfaction with care, although less strongly than process-related factors (i.e., treatment, safeness, and perceived staff and time availability). Among the person-related factors, loneliness was the strongest predictor of satisfaction among older persons in nursing homes. Interestingly, a path analysis revealed that safeness and treatment function as mediators in linking loneliness to satisfaction. Implications: The results based on a large national sample demonstrate that the individual aging condition to a significant degree can be countered by a well-functioning care process, resulting in higher satisfaction with care among older persons. PMID:25628300

Spatial Analysis of Severe Fever with Thrombocytopenia Syndrome Virus in China Using a Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Model

PubMed Central

Wu, Liang; Deng, Fei; Xie, Zhong; Hu, Sheng; Shen, Shu; Shi, Junming; Liu, Dan

2016-01-01

Severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome (SFTS) is caused by severe fever with thrombocytopenia syndrome virus (SFTSV), which has had a serious impact on public health in parts of Asia. There is no specific antiviral drug or vaccine for SFTSV and, therefore, it is important to determine the factors that influence the occurrence of SFTSV infections. This study aimed to explore the spatial associations between SFTSV infections and several potential determinants, and to predict the high-risk areas in mainland China. The analysis was carried out at the level of provinces in mainland China. The potential explanatory variables that were investigated consisted of meteorological factors (average temperature, average monthly precipitation and average relative humidity), the average proportion of rural population and the average proportion of primary industries over three years (2010–2012). We constructed a geographically weighted logistic regression (GWLR) model in order to explore the associations between the selected variables and confirmed cases of SFTSV. The study showed that: (1) meteorological factors have a strong influence on the SFTSV cover; (2) a GWLR model is suitable for exploring SFTSV cover in mainland China; (3) our findings can be used for predicting high-risk areas and highlighting when meteorological factors pose a risk in order to aid in the implementation of public health strategies. PMID:27845737

The Psychometric Structure of Items Assessing Autogynephilia.

PubMed

Hsu, Kevin J; Rosenthal, A M; Bailey, J Michael

2015-07-01

Autogynephilia, or paraphilic sexual arousal in a man to the thought or image of himself as a woman, manifests in a variety of different behaviors and fantasies. We examined the psychometric structure of 22 items assessing five known types of autogynephilia by subjecting them to exploratory factor analysis in a sample of 149 autogynephilic men. Results of oblique factor analyses supported the ability to distinguish five group factors with suitable items. Results of hierarchical factor analyses suggest that the five group factors were strongly underlain by a general factor of autogynephilia. Because the general factor accounted for a much greater amount of the total variance of the 22 items than did the group factors, the types of autogynephilia that a man has seem less important than the degree to which he has autogynephilia. However, the five types of autogynephilia remain conceptually useful because meaningful distinctions were found among them, including differential rates of endorsement and differential ability to predict other relevant variables like gender dysphoria. Factor-derived scales and subscales demonstrated good internal consistency reliabilities, and validity, with large differences found between autogynephilic men and heterosexual male controls. Future research should attempt to replicate our findings, which were mostly exploratory.

Biomarker Surrogates Do Not Accurately Predict Sputum Eosinophils and Neutrophils in Asthma

PubMed Central

Hastie, Annette T.; Moore, Wendy C.; Li, Huashi; Rector, Brian M.; Ortega, Victor E.; Pascual, Rodolfo M.; Peters, Stephen P.; Meyers, Deborah A.; Bleecker, Eugene R.

2013-01-01

Background Sputum eosinophils (Eos) are a strong predictor of airway inflammation, exacerbations, and aid asthma management, whereas sputum neutrophils (Neu) indicate a different severe asthma phenotype, potentially less responsive to TH2-targeted therapy. Variables such as blood Eos, total IgE, fractional exhaled nitric oxide (FeNO) or FEV1% predicted, may predict airway Eos, while age, FEV1%predicted, or blood Neu may predict sputum Neu. Availability and ease of measurement are useful characteristics, but accuracy in predicting airway Eos and Neu, individually or combined, is not established. Objectives To determine whether blood Eos, FeNO, and IgE accurately predict sputum eosinophils, and age, FEV1% predicted, and blood Neu accurately predict sputum neutrophils (Neu). Methods Subjects in the Wake Forest Severe Asthma Research Program (N=328) were characterized by blood and sputum cells, healthcare utilization, lung function, FeNO, and IgE. Multiple analytical techniques were utilized. Results Despite significant association with sputum Eos, blood Eos, FeNO and total IgE did not accurately predict sputum Eos, and combinations of these variables failed to improve prediction. Age, FEV1%predicted and blood Neu were similarly unsatisfactory for prediction of sputum Neu. Factor analysis and stepwise selection found FeNO, IgE and FEV1% predicted, but not blood Eos, correctly predicted 69% of sputum Eos

Prediction of parenteral nutrition osmolarity by digital refractometry.

PubMed

Chang, Wei-Kuo; Yeh, Ming-Kung

2011-05-01

Infusion of high-osmolarity parenteral nutrition (PN) formulations into a peripheral vein will damage the vessel. In this study, the authors developed a refractometric method to predict PN formulation osmolarity for patients receiving PN. Nutrients in PN formulations were prepared for Brix value and osmolality measurement. Brix value and osmolality measurement of the dextrose, amino acids, and electrolytes were used to evaluate the limiting factor of PN osmolarity prediction. A best-fit equation was generated to predict PN osmolarity (mOsm/L): 81.05 × Brix value--116.33 (R(2) > 0.99). To validate the PN osmolarity prediction by these 4 equations, a total of 500 PN admixtures were tested. The authors found strong linear relationships between the Brix values and the osmolality measurement of dextrose (R(2) = 0.97), amino acids (R(2) = 0.99), and electrolytes (R(2) > 0.96). When PN-measured osmolality was between 600 and 900 mOsm/kg, approximately 43%, 29%, 43%, and 0% of the predicted osmolarity obtained by equations 1, 2, 3, and 4 were outside the acceptable 90% to 110% confidence interval range, respectively. When measured osmolality was between 900 and 1,500 mOsm/kg, 31%, 100%, 85%, and 15% of the predicted osmolarity by equations 1, 2, 3, and 4 were outside the acceptable 90% to 110% confidence interval range, respectively. The refractive method permits accurate PN osmolarity prediction and reasonable quality assurance before PN formulation administration.

Effective g factor of low-density two-dimensional holes in a Ge quantum well

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, T. M.; Harris, C. T.; Huang, S. -H.

Here we report the measurements of the effective g factor of low-density two-dimensional holes in a Ge quantum well. Using the temperature dependence of the Shubnikov-de Haas oscillations, we extract the effective g factor in a magnetic field perpendicular to the sample surface. Very large values of the effective g factor, ranging from ~13 to ~28, are observed in the density range of 1.4×10 10 cm -2– 1.4×10 11 cm -2. When the magnetic field is oriented parallel to the sample surface, the effective g factor is obtained from a protrusion in the magneto-resistance data that signify full spin polarization.more » In the latter orientation, a small effective g factor, ~1.3-1.4, is measured in the density range of 1.5×10 10 cm -2–2×10 10 cm -2. Finally, this very strong anisotropy is consistent with theoretical predictions and previous measurements in other 2D hole systems, such as InGaAs and GaSb.« less

Effective g factor of low-density two-dimensional holes in a Ge quantum well

DOE PAGES

Lu, T. M.; Harris, C. T.; Huang, S. -H.; ...

2017-09-04

Here we report the measurements of the effective g factor of low-density two-dimensional holes in a Ge quantum well. Using the temperature dependence of the Shubnikov-de Haas oscillations, we extract the effective g factor in a magnetic field perpendicular to the sample surface. Very large values of the effective g factor, ranging from ~13 to ~28, are observed in the density range of 1.4×10 10 cm -2– 1.4×10 11 cm -2. When the magnetic field is oriented parallel to the sample surface, the effective g factor is obtained from a protrusion in the magneto-resistance data that signify full spin polarization.more » In the latter orientation, a small effective g factor, ~1.3-1.4, is measured in the density range of 1.5×10 10 cm -2–2×10 10 cm -2. Finally, this very strong anisotropy is consistent with theoretical predictions and previous measurements in other 2D hole systems, such as InGaAs and GaSb.« less

Sperm competition and maternal effects differentially influence testis and sperm size in Callosobruchus maculatus.

PubMed

Gay, L; Hosken, D J; Vasudev, R; Tregenza, T; Eady, P E

2009-05-01

The evolutionary factors affecting testis size are well documented, with sperm competition being of major importance. However, the factors affecting sperm length are not well understood; there are no clear theoretical predictions and the empirical evidence is inconsistent. Recently, maternal effects have been implicated in sperm length variation, a finding that may offer insights into its evolution. We investigated potential proximate and microevolutionary factors influencing testis and sperm size in the bruchid beetle Callosobruchus maculatus using a combined approach of an artificial evolution experiment over 90 generations and an environmental effects study. We found that while polyandry seems to select for larger testes, it had no detectable effect on sperm length. Furthermore, population density, a proximate indicator of sperm competition risk, was not significantly associated with sperm length or testis size variation. However, there were strong maternal effects influencing sperm length.

Testing For Measurement Invariance of Attachment Across Chinese and American Adolescent Samples.

PubMed

Ren, Ling; Zhao, Jihong Solomon; He, Ni Phil; Marshall, Ineke Haen; Zhang, Hongwei; Zhao, Ruohui; Jin, Cheng

2016-06-01

Adolescent attachment to formal and informal institutions has emerged as a major focus of criminological theories since the publication of Hirschi's work in 1969. This study attempts to examine the psychometric equivalence of the factorial structure of attachment measures across nations reflecting Western and Eastern cultures. Twelve manifest variables are used tapping the concepts of adolescent attachment to parents, school, and neighborhood. Confirmatory factor analysis is used to conduct invariance test across approximately 3,000 Chinese and U.S. adolescents. Results provide strong support for a three-factor model; the multigroup invariance tests reveal mixed results. While the family attachment measure appears invariant between the two samples, significant differences in the coefficients of the factor loadings are detected in the school attachment and neighborhood attachment measures. The results of regression analyses lend support to the predictive validity of three types of attachment. Finally, the limitations of the study are discussed. © The Author(s) 2015.

A five-factor measure of obsessive-compulsive personality traits.

PubMed

Samuel, Douglas B; Riddell, Ashley D B; Lynam, Donald R; Miller, Joshua D; Widiger, Thomas A

2012-01-01

This study provides convergent, discriminant, and incremental validity data for the Five-Factor Obsessive-Compulsive Inventory (FFOCI), a newly developed measure of traits relevant to obsessive-compulsive personality disorder (OCPD) from the perspective of the Five-factor model (FFM). Twelve scales were constructed as maladaptive variants of specific FFM facets (e.g., Perfectionism as a maladaptive variant of FFM competence). On the basis of data from 407 undergraduates (oversampled for OCPD symptoms) these 12 scales demonstrated convergent correlations with established measures of OCPD and the FFM. Further, they obtained strong discriminant validity with respect to facets from other FFM domains. Most important, the individual scales and total score of the FFOCI obtained incremental validity beyond existing measures of the FFM and OCPD for predicting a composite measure of obsessive-compulsive symptomatology. The findings support the validity of the FFOCI as a measure of obsessive-compulsive personality traits, as well as of maladaptive variants of the FFM.

Limited association between perceived control and health-related quality of life in patients with heart failure.

PubMed

Banerjee, Teesta; Lee, Kyoung Suk; Browning, Steven R; Hopenhayn, Claudia; Westneat, Susan; Biddle, Martha J; Arslanian-Engoren, Cynthia; Eastwood, Jo-Ann; Mudd, Gia; Moser, Debra K

2014-01-01

Perceived control has been suggested as a modifiable factor associated with health-related quality of life (HRQOL). However, the relationship between perceived control and HRQOL has not been evaluated in patients with heart failure (HF). The purpose of this study was to determine whether perceived control independently predicts HRQOL in HF patients. A total of 423 HF patients were included. Hierarchical linear regression was performed to determine the independent association of perceived control to HRQOL after controlling for covariates. Higher levels of perceived control were associated with better HRQOL in univariate analysis. However, this relationship was strongly attenuated after controlling for relevant demographic, clinical, and psychological factors; the variance in HRQOL explained by the addition of perceived control to this model was small (1.4%). We found only a weak relationship between perceived control and HRQOL when considered in the presence of demographic, clinical, and psychological factors.

Probing Nonrelativistic QCD Factorization in Polarized J/ψ Photoproduction at Next-to-Leading Order

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Butenschoen, Mathias; Kniehl, Bernd A.

2011-12-01

We analyze the polarization observables of J/ψ photoproduction at next-to-leading order within the factorization formalism of nonrelativistic quantum chromodynamics (NRQCD). This is a complete next-to-leading-order study of heavy-quarkonium polarization including the full relativistic corrections due to the intermediate S0[8]1, S1[8]3, and PJ[8]3 color-octet states closing a gap in the worldwide endeavor to test NRQCD factorization at the quantum level. We present theoretical predictions in the helicity, target, and Collins-Soper frames of DESY HERA, evaluated using the color-octet long-distance matrix elements previously extracted through a global fit to experimental data of unpolarized J/ψ production, and confront them with recent measurements by the H1 and ZEUS Collaborations. We find the overall agreement to be satisfactory but the case for NRQCD to be not as strong as for the J/ψ yield.

The absence of obstructive sleep apnea may protect against non-alcoholic fatty liver in patients undergoing bariatric surgery.

PubMed

Corey, Kathleen E; Misdraji, Joseph; Zheng, Hui; Malecki, Kyle M; Kneeman, Jacob; Gelrud, Louis; Chung, Raymond T

2013-01-01

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common cause of liver disease worldwide and its progressive form, steatohepatitis, will be the leading indication for liver transplant by 2020. While risk factors for steatohepatitis have been identified, little work has been performed to identify factors protective against NAFLD development. This study sought to identify factors predictive of normal liver histology in a bariatric cohort. Patients undergoing weight loss surgery with liver biopsies at the time of surgery were included. Patients with other causes of chronic liver disease were excluded. One hundred fifty-nine patients were included. Forty-nine patients had normal liver histology and 110 patients had NAFLD. Several previously identified factors associated with normal liver histology were found. Black race was the strongest predictor of the absence of NAFLD with an odds ratio (OR) of 6.8, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.4-18.9. Low HOMA-IR was also associated with normal histology (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.03-1.9). In contrast, low HDL was associated with a decreased chance of normal histology (OR 0.38, 95% CI 0.05-0.83). Interestingly, a novel protective factor, the absence of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) was strongly associated with normal histology (OR 5.6, 95% CI 2.0-16.1). In multivariate regression controlling for BMI, black race, absence of OSA, low HOMA-IR and low ALT independently predicted normal liver histology with an area under the ROC curve of 0.85. Our study confirmed several factors associated with normal liver histology, including black race and identified a novel factor, absence of OSA. Further evaluation of these factors will allow for improved understanding of the pathogenesis of NAFLD.

Overlapping Risky Decision-Making and Olfactory Processing Ability in HIV-Infected Individuals.

PubMed

Jackson, Christopher; Rai, Narayan; McLean, Charlee K; Hipolito, Maria Mananita S; Hamilton, Flora Terrell; Kapetanovic, Suad; Nwulia, Evaristus A

2017-09-01

Given neuroimaging evidences of overlap in the circuitries for decision-making and olfactory processing, we examined the hypothesis that impairment in psychophysical tasks of olfaction would independently predict poor performances on Iowa Gambling Task (IGT), a laboratory task that closely mimics real-life decision-making, in a US cohort of HIV-infected (HIV+) individuals. IGT and psychophysical tasks of olfaction were administered to a Washington DC-based cohort of largely African American HIV+ subjects (N=100), and to a small number of demographically-matched non-HIV healthy controls (N=43) from a different study. Constructs of olfactory ability and decision-making were examined through confirmatory factor analysis (CFA). Structural equation models (SEMs) were used to evaluate the validity of the path relationship between these two constructs. The 100 HIV+ participants (56% female; 96% African Americans; median age = 48 years) had median CD4 count of 576 cells/μl and median HIV RNA viral load <48 copies per milliliter. Majority of HIV+ participants performed randomly throughout the course of IGT tasks, and failed to demonstrate a learning curve. Confirmatory factor analysis provided support for a unidimensional factor underlying poor performances on IGT. Nomological validity for correlations between olfactory ability and IGT performance was confirmed through SEM. Finally, factor scores of olfactory ability and IGT performance strongly predicted 6 months history of drug use, while olfaction additionally predicted hallucinogen use. This study suggests that combination of simple, office-based tasks of olfaction and decision-making may identify those HIV+ individuals who are more prone to risky decision-making. This finding may have significant clinical, public health value if joint impairments in olfaction and IGT task correlates with more decreased activity in brain regions relevant to decision-making.

Does inclusion of education and marital status improve SCORE performance in central and eastern europe and former soviet union? findings from MONICA and HAPIEE cohorts.

PubMed

Vikhireva, Olga; Broda, Grazyna; Kubinova, Ruzena; Malyutina, Sofia; Pająk, Andrzej; Tamosiunas, Abdonas; Skodova, Zdena; Simonova, Galina; Bobak, Martin; Pikhart, Hynek

2014-01-01

The SCORE scale predicts the 10-year risk of fatal atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD), based on conventional risk factors. The high-risk version of SCORE is recommended for Central and Eastern Europe and former Soviet Union (CEE/FSU), due to high CVD mortality rates in these countries. Given the pronounced social gradient in cardiovascular mortality in the region, it is important to consider social factors in the CVD risk prediction. We investigated whether adding education and marital status to SCORE benefits its prognostic performance in two sets of population-based CEE/FSU cohorts. The WHO MONICA (MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) cohorts from the Czech Republic, Poland (Warsaw and Tarnobrzeg), Lithuania (Kaunas), and Russia (Novosibirsk) were followed from the mid-1980s (577 atherosclerotic CVD deaths among 14,969 participants with non-missing data). The HAPIEE (Health, Alcohol, and Psychosocial factors In Eastern Europe) study follows Czech, Polish (Krakow), and Russian (Novosibirsk) cohorts from 2002-05 (395 atherosclerotic CVD deaths in 19,900 individuals with non-missing data). In MONICA and HAPIEE, the high-risk SCORE ≥5% at baseline strongly and significantly predicted fatal CVD both before and after adjustment for education and marital status. After controlling for SCORE, lower education and non-married status were significantly associated with CVD mortality in some samples. SCORE extension by these additional risk factors only slightly improved indices of calibration and discrimination (integrated discrimination improvement <5% in men and ≤1% in women). Extending SCORE by education and marital status failed to substantially improve its prognostic performance in population-based CEE/FSU cohorts.

Do instability markers predict satisfactory reduction and requirement for later surgery in emergency department patients with wrist fracture?

PubMed

Winayak, Amar; Gossat, Alyza; Cooper, Jenny; Ritchie, Peter; Lim, Wei; Klim, Sharon; Kelly, Anne-Maree

2018-02-01

Research suggests that the presence of instability markers in patients with displaced distal radial fractures is associated with poorer outcome. Our aims were to determine whether the presence of previously defined instability markers could predict the likelihood of successful ED reduction and requirement for a secondary procedure after ED reduction. Retrospective cohort study performed by medical record review. Adult ED patients coded as having an isolated wrist fracture and having fracture reduction in ED were eligible for inclusion. Data collected included demographics, history of osteoporosis, mechanism of injury, radiological features on X-rays and performance of a secondary procedure. Outcomes of interest were the rate of successful fracture reduction in ED (against defined radiological criteria), the rate of secondary procedures and the association between the number of defined instability risk factors and successful reduction and performance of a secondary surgical procedure. Analysis was by χ 2 test, receiver operating characteristic curve, logistic regression analyses. Three hundred and nineteen patients were studied; median age 62 years, 77% female. Sixty-five per cent of patients had satisfactory fracture reduction in ED (95% CI 59%-70%). Eighty-six patients underwent a secondary procedure to reduce/stabilise their fracture (28%, 95% CI 23%-33%). Younger age, lack of satisfactory ED reduction and increased number of instability factors were independently predictive of the performance of a secondary procedure. Instability risk factors are common in patients with wrist fractures requiring reduction in ED. The number of instability factors is not a strong predictor of the performance of secondary procedures. © 2017 Australasian College for Emergency Medicine and Australasian Society for Emergency Medicine.

The effects of utility evaluations, biomedical knowledge and modernization on intention to exclusively use biomedical health facilities among rural households in Mozambique.

PubMed

Mukolo, Abraham; Cooil, Bruce; Victor, Bart

2015-08-01

In resource-limited settings, the choice between utilizing biomedical health services and/or traditional healers is critical to the success of the public health mission. In the literature, this choice has been predicted to be influenced by three major factors: knowledge about biomedical etiologies; cultural modernization; and rational choice. The current study investigated all three of these predicted determinants, applying data from a general household survey conducted in 2010 in Zambézia Province of Mozambique involving 1045 randomly sampled rural households. Overall, more respondents (N = 802) intended to continue to supplement their biomedical healthcare with traditional healer services in comparison with those intending to utilize biomedical care exclusively (N = 243). The findings strongly supported the predicted association between rational utility (measured as satisfaction with the quality of service and results from past care) with the future intention to continue to supplement or utilize biomedical care exclusively. Odds of moving away from supplementation increase by a factor of 2.5 if the respondent reported seeing their condition improve under government/private biomedical care. Odds of staying with supplementation increase by a factor 3.1 if the respondent was satisfied with traditional care and a factor of 16 if the condition had improved under traditional care. Modernization variables (education, income, religion, and Portuguese language skills) were relevant and provided a significant component of the best scientific model. Amount of biomedical knowledge was not a significant predictor of choice. There was a small effect on choice from knowing the limitations of biomedical care. The findings have implications for public healthcare promotion activities in areas where biomedical care is introduced as an alternative to traditional healing. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

NATURAL COURSE OF PATIENTS DISCONTINUING TREATMENT FOR AGE-RELATED MACULAR DEGENERATION AND FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH VISUAL PROGNOSIS.

PubMed

Kim, Jae Hui; Chang, Young Suk; Kim, Jong Woo

2017-12-01

To evaluate the 24-month natural course of visual changes in patients discontinuing treatment despite persistent or recurrent fluid and factors predictive of visual prognosis. This retrospective, observational study included 35 patients (35 eyes) who initially received anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment for neovascular age-related macular degeneration (AMD), but discontinued treatment despite persistent or recurrent fluid. The best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA) at treatment discontinuation was determined and compared with the 24-month BCVA, which was then compared between polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy and other neovascular age-related macular degeneration subtypes. Baseline characteristics predictive of visual outcome and the degree of visual change were also analyzed. The mean number of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor injections before treatment discontinuation was 4.0 ± 1.6. The mean logarithm of minimal angle of resolution of BCVA at treatment discontinuation and that at 24 months were 1.02 ± 0.20 (Snellen equivalents = 20/209) and 1.60 ± 0.56 (20/796), respectively (P < 0.001). The 24-month BCVA was not different between polypoidal choroidal vasculopathy and other neovascular age-related macular degeneration subtypes (P = 0.803). The type of fluid (intraretinal fluid vs. no intraretinal fluid) was predictive of 24-month BCVA (P = 0.004) and the degree of changes in BCVA (P = 0.043). Marked deterioration in visual acuity was noted in patients discontinuing treatment, regardless of neovascular age-related macular degeneration subtypes. The presence of intraretinal fluid was associated with worse visual prognosis, suggesting that patients with intraretinal fluid should be strongly warned about their poor prognosis before they decide to discontinue treatment.

Prediction of alcohol drinking in adolescents: Personality-traits, behavior, brain responses, and genetic variations in the context of reward sensitivity.

PubMed

Heinrich, Angela; Müller, Kathrin U; Banaschewski, Tobias; Barker, Gareth J; Bokde, Arun L W; Bromberg, Uli; Büchel, Christian; Conrod, Patricia; Fauth-Bühler, Mira; Papadopoulos, Dimitri; Gallinat, Jürgen; Garavan, Hugh; Gowland, Penny; Heinz, Andreas; Ittermann, Bernd; Mann, Karl; Martinot, Jean-Luc; Paus, Tomáš; Pausova, Zdenka; Smolka, Michael; Ströhle, Andreas; Rietschel, Marcella; Flor, Herta; Schumann, Gunter; Nees, Frauke

2016-07-01

Adolescence is a time that can set the course of alcohol abuse later in life. Sensitivity to reward on multiple levels is a major factor in this development. We examined 736 adolescents from the IMAGEN longitudinal study for alcohol drinking during early (mean age=14.37) and again later (mean age=16.45) adolescence. Conducting structural equation modeling we evaluated the contribution of reward-related personality traits, behavior, brain responses and candidate genes. Personality seems to be most important in explaining alcohol drinking in early adolescence. However, genetic variations in ANKK1 (rs1800497) and HOMER1 (rs7713917) play an equal role in predicting alcohol drinking two years later and are most important in predicting the increase in alcohol consumption. We hypothesize that the initiation of alcohol use may be driven more strongly by personality while the transition to increased alcohol use is more genetically influenced. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Analysis of Neuronal Spike Trains, Deconstructed

PubMed Central

Aljadeff, Johnatan; Lansdell, Benjamin J.; Fairhall, Adrienne L.; Kleinfeld, David

2016-01-01

As information flows through the brain, neuronal firing progresses from encoding the world as sensed by the animal to driving the motor output of subsequent behavior. One of the more tractable goals of quantitative neuroscience is to develop predictive models that relate the sensory or motor streams with neuronal firing. Here we review and contrast analytical tools used to accomplish this task. We focus on classes of models in which the external variable is compared with one or more feature vectors to extract a low-dimensional representation, the history of spiking and other variables are potentially incorporated, and these factors are nonlinearly transformed to predict the occurrences of spikes. We illustrate these techniques in application to datasets of different degrees of complexity. In particular, we address the fitting of models in the presence of strong correlations in the external variable, as occurs in natural sensory stimuli and in movement. Spectral correlation between predicted and measured spike trains is introduced to contrast the relative success of different methods. PMID:27477016

Estimating Energy Conversion Efficiency of Thermoelectric Materials: Constant Property Versus Average Property Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Armstrong, Hannah; Boese, Matthew; Carmichael, Cody; Dimich, Hannah; Seay, Dylan; Sheppard, Nathan; Beekman, Matt

2017-01-01

Maximum thermoelectric energy conversion efficiencies are calculated using the conventional "constant property" model and the recently proposed "cumulative/average property" model (Kim et al. in Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 112:8205, 2015) for 18 high-performance thermoelectric materials. We find that the constant property model generally predicts higher energy conversion efficiency for nearly all materials and temperature differences studied. Although significant deviations are observed in some cases, on average the constant property model predicts an efficiency that is a factor of 1.16 larger than that predicted by the average property model, with even lower deviations for temperature differences typical of energy harvesting applications. Based on our analysis, we conclude that the conventional dimensionless figure of merit ZT obtained from the constant property model, while not applicable for some materials with strongly temperature-dependent thermoelectric properties, remains a simple yet useful metric for initial evaluation and/or comparison of thermoelectric materials, provided the ZT at the average temperature of projected operation, not the peak ZT, is used.

Observed and modeled seasonal trends in dissolved and particulate Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn in a mining-impacted stream.

PubMed

Butler, Barbara A; Ranville, James F; Ross, Philippe E

2008-06-01

North Fork Clear Creek (NFCC) in Colorado, an acid-mine drainage (AMD) impacted stream, was chosen to examine the distribution of dissolved and particulate Cu, Fe, Mn, and Zn in the water column, with respect to seasonal hydrologic controls. NFCC is a high-gradient stream with discharge directly related to snowmelt and strong seasonal storms. Additionally, conditions in the stream cause rapid precipitation of large amounts of hydrous iron oxides (HFO) that sequester metals. Because AMD-impacted systems are complex, geochemical modeling may assist with predictions and/or confirmations of processes occurring in these environments. This research used Visual-MINTEQ to determine if field data collected over a two and one-half year study would be well represented by modeling with a currently existing model, while limiting the number of processes modeled and without modifications to the existing model's parameters. Observed distributions between dissolved and particulate phases in the water column varied greatly among the metals, with average dissolved fractions being >90% for Mn, approximately 75% for Zn, approximately 30% for Cu, and <10% for Fe. A strong seasonal trend was observed for the metals predominantly in the dissolved phase (Mn and Zn), with increasing concentrations during base-flow conditions and decreasing concentrations during spring-runoff. This trend was less obvious for Cu and Fe. Within hydrologic seasons, storm events significantly influenced in-stream metals concentrations. The most simplified modeling, using solely sorption to HFO, gave predicted percentage particulate Cu results for most samples to within a factor of two of the measured values, but modeling data were biased toward over-prediction. About one-half of the percentage particulate Zn data comparisons fell within a factor of two, with the remaining data being under-predicted. Slightly more complex modeling, which included dissolved organic carbon (DOC) as a solution phase ligand, significantly reduced the positive bias between observed and predicted percentage particulate Cu, while inclusion of hydrous manganese oxide (HMO) yielded model results more representative of the observed percentage particulate Zn. These results indicate that there is validity in the use of an existing model, without alteration and with typically collected water chemistry data, to describe complex natural systems, but that processes considered optimal for one metal might not be applicable for all metals in a given water sample.

A physically-based method for predicting peak discharge of floods caused by failure of natural and constructed earthen dams

USGS Publications Warehouse

Walder, J.S.; O'Connor, J. E.; Costa, J.E.; ,

1997-01-01

We analyse a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V.D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether < ??? 1 or < ??? 1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.We analyze a simple, physically-based model of breach formation in natural and constructed earthen dams to elucidate the principal factors controlling the flood hydrograph at the breach. Formation of the breach, which is assumed trapezoidal in cross-section, is parameterized by the mean rate of downcutting, k, the value of which is constrained by observations. A dimensionless formulation of the model leads to the prediction that the breach hydrograph depends upon lake shape, the ratio r of breach width to depth, the side slope ?? of the breach, and the parameter ?? = (V/D3)(k/???gD), where V = lake volume, D = lake depth, and g is the acceleration due to gravity. Calculations show that peak discharge Qp depends weakly on lake shape r and ??, but strongly on ??, which is the product of a dimensionless lake volume and a dimensionless erosion rate. Qp(??) takes asymptotically distinct forms depending on whether ?????1 or ?????1. Theoretical predictions agree well with data from dam failures for which k could be reasonably estimated. The analysis provides a rapid and in many cases graphical way to estimate plausible values of Qp at the breach.

Revealing life-history traits by contrasting genetic estimations with predictions of effective population size.

PubMed

Greenbaum, Gili; Renan, Sharon; Templeton, Alan R; Bouskila, Amos; Saltz, David; Rubenstein, Daniel I; Bar-David, Shirli

2017-12-22

Effective population size, a central concept in conservation biology, is now routinely estimated from genetic surveys and can also be theoretically predicted from demographic, life-history, and mating-system data. By evaluating the consistency of theoretical predictions with empirically estimated effective size, insights can be gained regarding life-history characteristics and the relative impact of different life-history traits on genetic drift. These insights can be used to design and inform management strategies aimed at increasing effective population size. We demonstrated this approach by addressing the conservation of a reintroduced population of Asiatic wild ass (Equus hemionus). We estimated the variance effective size (N ev ) from genetic data (N ev =24.3) and formulated predictions for the impacts on N ev of demography, polygyny, female variance in lifetime reproductive success (RS), and heritability of female RS. By contrasting the genetic estimation with theoretical predictions, we found that polygyny was the strongest factor affecting genetic drift because only when accounting for polygyny were predictions consistent with the genetically measured N ev . The comparison of effective-size estimation and predictions indicated that 10.6% of the males mated per generation when heritability of female RS was unaccounted for (polygyny responsible for 81% decrease in N ev ) and 19.5% mated when female RS was accounted for (polygyny responsible for 67% decrease in N ev ). Heritability of female RS also affected N ev ; hf2=0.91 (heritability responsible for 41% decrease in N ev ). The low effective size is of concern, and we suggest that management actions focus on factors identified as strongly affecting Nev, namely, increasing the availability of artificial water sources to increase number of dominant males contributing to the gene pool. This approach, evaluating life-history hypotheses in light of their impact on effective population size, and contrasting predictions with genetic measurements, is a general, applicable strategy that can be used to inform conservation practice. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Multi-centre diagnostic classification of individual structural neuroimaging scans from patients with major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Mwangi, Benson; Ebmeier, Klaus P; Matthews, Keith; Steele, J Douglas

2012-05-01

Quantitative abnormalities of brain structure in patients with major depressive disorder have been reported at a group level for decades. However, these structural differences appear subtle in comparison with conventional radiologically defined abnormalities, with considerable inter-subject variability. Consequently, it has not been possible to readily identify scans from patients with major depressive disorder at an individual level. Recently, machine learning techniques such as relevance vector machines and support vector machines have been applied to predictive classification of individual scans with variable success. Here we describe a novel hybrid method, which combines machine learning with feature selection and characterization, with the latter aimed at maximizing the accuracy of machine learning prediction. The method was tested using a multi-centre dataset of T(1)-weighted 'structural' scans. A total of 62 patients with major depressive disorder and matched controls were recruited from referred secondary care clinical populations in Aberdeen and Edinburgh, UK. The generalization ability and predictive accuracy of the classifiers was tested using data left out of the training process. High prediction accuracy was achieved (~90%). While feature selection was important for maximizing high predictive accuracy with machine learning, feature characterization contributed only a modest improvement to relevance vector machine-based prediction (~5%). Notably, while the only information provided for training the classifiers was T(1)-weighted scans plus a categorical label (major depressive disorder versus controls), both relevance vector machine and support vector machine 'weighting factors' (used for making predictions) correlated strongly with subjective ratings of illness severity. These results indicate that machine learning techniques have the potential to inform clinical practice and research, as they can make accurate predictions about brain scan data from individual subjects. Furthermore, machine learning weighting factors may reflect an objective biomarker of major depressive disorder illness severity, based on abnormalities of brain structure.

Factors affecting the estimate of primary production from space

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Balch, W. M.; Byrne, C. F.

1994-01-01

Remote sensing of primary production in the euphotic zone has been based mostly on visible-band and water-leaving radiance measured with the coastal zone color scanner. There are some robust, simple relationships for calculating integral production based on surface measurements, but they also require knowledge for photoadaptive parameters such as maximum photosynthesis which currently cannot be obtained from spave. A 17,000-station data set is used to show that space-based estimates of maximum photosynthesis could improve predictions of psi, the water column light utiliztion index, which is an important term in many primary productivity models. Temperature is also examined as a factor for predicting hydrographic structure and primary production. A simple model is used to relate temperature and maximum photosynthesis; the model incorporates (1) the positive relationship between maximum photosynthesis and temperature and (2) the strongly negative relationship between temperature and nitrate in the ocean (which directly affects maximum growth rates via nitrogen limitation). Since these two factors relate to carbon and nitrogen, 'balanced carbon/nitrogen assimilation' was calculated using the Redfield ratio, It is expected that the relationship between maximum balanced carbon assimilation versus temperature is concave-down, with the peak dependent on nitrate uptake kinetics, temperature-nitrate relationships,a nd the carbon chlorophyll ration. These predictions were compared with the sea truth data. The minimum turnover time for nitrate was also calculated using this approach. Lastly, sea surface temperature gradients were used to predict the slope of isotherms (a proxy for the slope of isopycnals in many waters). Sea truth data show that at size scales of several hundred kilometers, surface temperature gradients can provide information on the slope of isotherms in the top 200 m of the water column. This is directly relevant to the supply of nutrients into the surface mixed layer, which is useful for predicting integral biomass and primary production.

Variation in both IL28B and KIR2DS3 genes influence pegylated interferon and ribavirin hepatitis C treatment outcome in HIV-1 co-infection.

PubMed

Keane, Ciara; O'Shea, Daire; Reiberger, Thomas; Peck-Radosavljevic, Markus; Farrell, Gillian; Bergin, Colm; Gardiner, Clair M

2013-01-01

Pegylated-IFN and ribavirin remains the current treatment for chronic HCV infection in patients co-infected with HIV-1, but this regimen has low efficacy rates, particularly for HCV genotype 1/4 infection, has severe side effects and is extremely costly. Therefore, accurate prediction of treatment response is urgently required. We have recently shown that the NK cell gene, KIR2DS3 and a SNP associated with the IL28B gene synergise to increase the risk of chronic infection in primary HCV mono-infected patients. Identification of SNPs associated with the IL28B gene has also proven very powerful for predicting patient response to treatment. Patients co-infected with HIV-1 are of particular concern given they respond less well to HCV treatment, have more side effects and suffer a more rapid liver disease progression. In this study, we examined both IL28B and KIR2DS3 for their ability to predict treatment response in a cohort of HIV-1/HCV co-infected patients attending two treatment centres in Europe. We found that variation in both host genetic risk factors, IL28B and KIR2DS3, was strongly associated with sustained virological response (SVR) to treatment in our co-infected cohort (n = 149). The majority of patients who achieved a rapid virological response (RVR) achieved a SVR. However, it is currently impossible to predict treatment outcome in patients who fail to achieve an RVR. In our cohort, the presence of host genetic risk factors, IL28B-T and KIR2DS3 alleles, resulted in increased odds of treatment failure in these RVR negative patients (n = 88). Our data suggests that testing for host genetic factors will improve predicting treatment responsiveness in the clinical management of co-infected patients, and provides further evidence of the importance of the innate immune system in the immune response to HCV.

Semilocal density functional obeying a strongly tightened bound for exchange

PubMed Central

Sun, Jianwei; Perdew, John P.; Ruzsinszky, Adrienn

2015-01-01

Because of its useful accuracy and efficiency, density functional theory (DFT) is one of the most widely used electronic structure theories in physics, materials science, and chemistry. Only the exchange-correlation energy is unknown, and needs to be approximated in practice. Exact constraints provide useful information about this functional. The local spin-density approximation (LSDA) was the first constraint-based density functional. The Lieb–Oxford lower bound on the exchange-correlation energy for any density is another constraint that plays an important role in the development of generalized gradient approximations (GGAs) and meta-GGAs. Recently, a strongly and optimally tightened lower bound on the exchange energy was proved for one- and two-electron densities, and conjectured for all densities. In this article, we present a realistic “meta-GGA made very simple” (MGGA-MVS) for exchange that respects this optimal bound, which no previous beyond-LSDA approximation satisfies. This constraint might have been expected to worsen predicted thermochemical properties, but in fact they are improved over those of the Perdew–Burke–Ernzerhof GGA, which has nearly the same correlation part. MVS exchange is however radically different from that of other GGAs and meta-GGAs. Its exchange enhancement factor has a very strong dependence upon the orbital kinetic energy density, which permits accurate energies even with the drastically tightened bound. When this nonempirical MVS meta-GGA is hybridized with 25% of exact exchange, the resulting global hybrid gives excellent predictions for atomization energies, reaction barriers, and weak interactions of molecules. PMID:25561554

Semilocal density functional obeying a strongly tightened bound for exchange.

PubMed

Sun, Jianwei; Perdew, John P; Ruzsinszky, Adrienn

2015-01-20

Because of its useful accuracy and efficiency, density functional theory (DFT) is one of the most widely used electronic structure theories in physics, materials science, and chemistry. Only the exchange-correlation energy is unknown, and needs to be approximated in practice. Exact constraints provide useful information about this functional. The local spin-density approximation (LSDA) was the first constraint-based density functional. The Lieb-Oxford lower bound on the exchange-correlation energy for any density is another constraint that plays an important role in the development of generalized gradient approximations (GGAs) and meta-GGAs. Recently, a strongly and optimally tightened lower bound on the exchange energy was proved for one- and two-electron densities, and conjectured for all densities. In this article, we present a realistic "meta-GGA made very simple" (MGGA-MVS) for exchange that respects this optimal bound, which no previous beyond-LSDA approximation satisfies. This constraint might have been expected to worsen predicted thermochemical properties, but in fact they are improved over those of the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof GGA, which has nearly the same correlation part. MVS exchange is however radically different from that of other GGAs and meta-GGAs. Its exchange enhancement factor has a very strong dependence upon the orbital kinetic energy density, which permits accurate energies even with the drastically tightened bound. When this nonempirical MVS meta-GGA is hybridized with 25% of exact exchange, the resulting global hybrid gives excellent predictions for atomization energies, reaction barriers, and weak interactions of molecules.

Percentage of positive prostate biopsies independently predicts biochemical outcome following radiation therapy for prostate cancer.

PubMed

Gabriele, Domenico; Garibaldi, Monica; Girelli, Giuseppe; Taraglio, Stefano; Duregon, Eleonora; Gabriele, Pietro; Guiot, Caterina; Bollito, Enrico

2016-06-01

This work aims to definitely show the ability of percentage of positive biopsy cores (%PC) to independently predict biochemical outcome beyond traditional pretreatment risk-factors in prostate cancer (PCa) patients treated with radiotherapy. A cohort of 2493 men belonging to the EUREKA-2 retrospective multicentric database on (PCa) and treated with external-beam radiation therapy (EBRT) as primary treatment comprised the study population (median follow-up 50 months). A Cox regression time to prostate-specific antigen (PSA) failure analysis was performed to evaluate the predictive power of %PC, both in univariate and multivariate settings, with age, pretreatment PSA, clinical-radiological staging, bioptic Gleason Score (bGS), RT dose and RT +/- ADT as covariates. P statistics for %PC is lower than 0.001 both in univariate and multivariate models. %PC as a continuous variable yields an AUC of 69% in ROC curve analysis for biochemical relapse. Four classes of %PC (1-20%, 21-50%, 51-80% and 81-100%) distinctly split patients for risk of biochemical relapse (overall log-rank test P<0.0001), with biochemical progression free survival (bPFS) at 5-years ranging from 88% to 58% and 10-years bPFS ranging from 80% to 38%. We strongly affirm the usefulness of %PC information beyond main risk factors (PSA, staging and bGS) in predicting biochemical recurrence after EBRT for PCa. The stratification of patients according to %PC may be valuable to further discriminate cases with favourable or adverse prognosis.

An index predictive of cognitive outcome in retired professional American Football players with a history of sports concussion.

PubMed

Wright, Mathew J; Woo, Ellen; Birath, J Brandon; Siders, Craig A; Kelly, Daniel F; Wang, Christina; Swerdloff, Ronald; Romero, Elizabeth; Kernan, Claudia; Cantu, Robert C; Guskiewicz, Kevin

2016-01-01

Various concussion characteristics and personal factors are associated with cognitive recovery in athletes. We developed an index based on concussion frequency, severity, and timeframe, as well as cognitive reserve (CR), and we assessed its predictive power regarding cognitive ability in retired professional football players. Data from 40 retired professional American football players were used in the current study. On average, participants had been retired from football for 20 years. Current neuropsychological performances, indicators of CR, concussion history, and play data were used to create an index for predicting cognitive outcome. The sample displayed a range of concussions, concussion severities, seasons played, CR, and cognitive ability. Many of the participants demonstrated cognitive deficits. The index strongly predicted global cognitive ability (R(2) = .31). The index also predicted the number of areas of neuropsychological deficit, which varied as a function of the deficit classification system used (Heaton: R(2) = .15; Wechsler: R(2) = .28). The current study demonstrated that a unique combination of CR, sports concussion, and game-related data can predict cognitive outcomes in participants who had been retired from professional American football for an average of 20 years. Such indices may prove to be useful for clinical decision making and research.