Something old, something new, something borrowed, something blue: a framework for the marriage of health econometrics and cost-effectiveness analysis.

PubMed

Hoch, Jeffrey S; Briggs, Andrew H; Willan, Andrew R

2002-07-01

Economic evaluation is often seen as a branch of health economics divorced from mainstream econometric techniques. Instead, it is perceived as relying on statistical methods for clinical trials. Furthermore, the statistic of interest in cost-effectiveness analysis, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio is not amenable to regression-based methods, hence the traditional reliance on comparing aggregate measures across the arms of a clinical trial. In this paper, we explore the potential for health economists undertaking cost-effectiveness analysis to exploit the plethora of established econometric techniques through the use of the net-benefit framework - a recently suggested reformulation of the cost-effectiveness problem that avoids the reliance on cost-effectiveness ratios and their associated statistical problems. This allows the formulation of the cost-effectiveness problem within a standard regression type framework. We provide an example with empirical data to illustrate how a regression type framework can enhance the net-benefit method. We go on to suggest that practical advantages of the net-benefit regression approach include being able to use established econometric techniques, adjust for imperfect randomisation, and identify important subgroups in order to estimate the marginal cost-effectiveness of an intervention. Copyright 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Approaches to nonlinear cointegration with a view towards applications in SHM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cross, E. J.; Worden, K.

2011-07-01

One of the major problems confronting the application of Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) to real structures is that of divorcing the effect of environmental changes from those imposed by damage. A recent development in this area is the import of the technique of cointegration from the field of econometrics. While cointegration is a mature technology within economics, its development has been largely concerned with linear time-series analysis and this places a severe constraint on its application - particularly in the new context of SHM where damage can often make a given structure nonlinear. The objective of the current paper is to introduce two possible approaches to nonlinear cointegration: the first is an optimisation-based method; the second is a variation of the established Johansen procedure based on the use of an augmented basis. Finally, the ideas of nonlinear cointegration will be explored through application to real SHM data from the benchmark project on the Z24 Highway Bridge.

Models for forecasting energy use in the US farm sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Christensen, L. R.

1981-07-01

Econometric models were developed and estimated for the purpose of forecasting electricity and petroleum demand in US agriculture. A structural approach is pursued which takes account of the fact that the quantity demanded of any one input is a decision made in conjunction with other input decisions. Three different functional forms of varying degrees of complexity are specified for the structural cost function, which describes the cost of production as a function of the level of output and factor prices. Demand for materials (all purchased inputs) is derived from these models. A separate model which break this demand up into demand for the four components of materials is used to produce forecasts of electricity and petroleum is a stepwise manner.

Parameterized examination in econometrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malinova, Anna; Kyurkchiev, Vesselin; Spasov, Georgi

2018-01-01

The paper presents a parameterization of basic types of exam questions in Econometrics. This algorithm is used to automate and facilitate the process of examination, assessment and self-preparation of a large number of students. The proposed parameterization of testing questions reduces the time required to author tests and course assignments. It enables tutors to generate a large number of different but equivalent dynamic questions (with dynamic answers) on a certain topic, which are automatically assessed. The presented methods are implemented in DisPeL (Distributed Platform for e-Learning) and provide questions in the areas of filtering and smoothing of time-series data, forecasting, building and analysis of single-equation econometric models. Questions also cover elasticity, average and marginal characteristics, product and cost functions, measurement of monopoly power, supply, demand and equilibrium price, consumer and product surplus, etc. Several approaches are used to enable the required numerical computations in DisPeL - integration of third-party mathematical libraries, developing our own procedures from scratch, and wrapping our legacy math codes in order to modernize and reuse them.

Energy modeling. Volume 2: Inventory and details of state energy models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melcher, A. G.; Underwood, R. G.; Weber, J. C.; Gist, R. L.; Holman, R. P.; Donald, D. W.

1981-05-01

An inventory of energy models developed by or for state governments is presented, and certain models are discussed in depth. These models address a variety of purposes such as: supply or demand of energy or of certain types of energy; emergency management of energy; and energy economics. Ten models are described. The purpose, use, and history of the model is discussed, and information is given on the outputs, inputs, and mathematical structure of the model. The models include five models dealing with energy demand, one of which is econometric and four of which are econometric-engineering end-use models.

Much ado about two: reconsidering retransformation and the two-part model in health econometrics.

PubMed

Mullahy, J

1998-06-01

In health economics applications involving outcomes (y) and covariates (x), it is often the case that the central inferential problems of interest involve E[y/x] and its associated partial effects or elasticities. Many such outcomes have two fundamental statistical properties: y > or = 0; and the outcome y = 0 is observed with sufficient frequency that the zeros cannot be ignored econometrically. This paper (1) describes circumstances where the standard two-part model with homoskedastic retransformation will fail to provide consistent inferences about important policy parameters; and (2) demonstrates some alternative approaches that are likely to prove helpful in applications.

Estimating Environmental Compliance Costs for Industry (1981)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The paper discusses the pros and cons of existing approaches to compliance cost estimation such as ex post survey estimation and ex ante estimation techniques (input cost accounting methods, engineering process models and, econometric models).

The Case of Effort Variables in Student Performance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Borg, Mary O.; And Others

1989-01-01

Tests the existence of a structural shift between above- and below-average students in the econometric models that explain students' grades in principles of economics classes. Identifies a structural shift and estimates separate models for above- and below-average students. Concludes that separate models as well as educational policies are…

The impact of tropospheric ozone pollution on trial plot winter wheat yields in Great Britain - an econometric approach.

PubMed

Kaliakatsou, Evridiki; Bell, J Nigel B; Thirtle, Colin; Rose, Daniel; Power, Sally A

2010-05-01

Numerous experiments have demonstrated reductions in the yields of cereal crops due to tropospheric O(3), with losses of up to 25%. However, the only British econometric study on O(3) impacts on winter wheat yields, found that a 10% increase in AOT40 would decrease yields by only 0.23%. An attempt is made here to reconcile these observations by developing AOT40 maps for Great Britain and matching levels with a large number of standardised trial plot wheat yields from many sites over a 13-year period. Panel estimates (repeated measures on the same plots with time) show a 0.54% decrease in yields and it is hypothesised that plant breeders may have inadvertently selected for O(3) tolerance in wheat. Some support for this is provided by fumigations of cultivars of differing introduction dates. A case is made for the use of econometric as well as experimental studies in prediction of air pollution induced crop loss. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterizing China's energy consumption with selective economic factors and energy-resource endowment: a spatial econometric approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jiang, Lei; Ji, Minhe; Bai, Ling

2015-06-01

Coupled with intricate regional interactions, the provincial disparity of energy-resource endowment and other economic conditions in China have created spatially complex energy consumption patterns that require analyses beyond the traditional ones. To distill the spatial effect out of the resource and economic factors on China's energy consumption, this study recast the traditional econometric model in a spatial context. Several analytic steps were taken to reveal different aspects of the issue. Per capita energy consumption (AVEC) at the provincial level was first mapped to reveal spatial clusters of high energy consumption being located in either well developed or energy resourceful regions. This visual spatial autocorrelation pattern of AVEC was quantitatively tested to confirm its existence among Chinese provinces. A Moran scatterplot was employed to further display a relatively centralized trend occurring in those provinces that had parallel AVEC, revealing a spatial structure with attraction among high-high or low-low regions and repellency among high-low or low-high regions. By a comparison between the ordinary least square (OLS) model and its spatial econometric counterparts, a spatial error model (SEM) was selected to analyze the impact of major economic determinants on AVEC. While the analytic results revealed a significant positive correlation between AVEC and economic development, other determinants showed some intricate influential patterns. The provinces endowed with rich energy reserves were inclined to consume much more energy than those otherwise, whereas changing the economic structure by increasing the proportion of secondary and tertiary industries also tended to consume more energy. Both situations seem to underpin the fact that these provinces were largely trapped in the economies that were supported by technologies of low energy efficiency during the period, while other parts of the country were rapidly modernized by adopting advanced technologies and more efficient industries. On the other hand, institutional change (i.e., marketization) and innovation (i.e., technological progress) exerted positive impacts on AVEC improvement, as always expected in this and other studies. Finally, the model comparison indicated that SEM was capable of separating spatial effect from the error term of OLS, so as to improve goodness-of-fit and the significance level of individual determinants.

Cointegration and why it works for SHM

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cross, Elizabeth J.; Worden, Keith

2012-08-01

One of the most fundamental problems in Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) is that of projecting out operational and environmental variations from measured feature data. The reason for this is that algorithms used for SHM to detect changes in structural condition should not raise alarms if the structure of interest changes because of benign operational or environmental variations. This is sometimes called the data normalisation problem. Many solutions to this problem have been proposed over the years, but a new approach that uses cointegration, a concept from the field of econometrics, appears to provide a very promising solution. The theory of cointegration is mathematically complex and its use is based on the holding of a number of assumptions on the time series to which it is applied. An interesting observation that has emerged from its applications to SHM data is that the approach works very well even though the aforementioned assumptions do not hold in general. The objective of the current paper is to discuss how the cointegration assumptions break down individually in the context of SHM and to explain why this does not invalidate the application of the algorithm.

Disentangling the Circularity in Sen's Capability Approach: An Analysis of the Co-Evolution of Functioning Achievement and Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Binder, Martin; Coad, Alex

2011-01-01

There is an ambiguity in Amartya Sen's capability approach as to what constitutes an individual's resources, conversion factors and valuable functionings. What we here call the "circularity problem" points to the fact that all three concepts seem to be mutually endogenous and interdependent. To econometrically account for this…

Do health economic evaluations using observational data provide reliable assessment of treatment effects?

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Economic evaluation in modern health care systems is seen as a transparent scientific framework that can be used to advance progress towards improvements in population health at the best possible value. Despite the perceived superiority that trial-based studies have in terms of internal validity, economic evaluations often employ observational data. In this review, the interface between econometrics and economic evaluation is explored, with emphasis placed on highlighting methodological issues relating to the evaluation of cost-effectiveness within a bivariate framework. Studies that satisfied the eligibility criteria exemplified the use of matching, regression analysis, propensity scores, instrumental variables, as well as difference-in-differences approaches. All studies were reviewed and critically appraised using a structured template. The findings suggest that although state-of-the-art econometric methods have the potential to provide evidence on the causal effects of clinical and policy interventions, their application in economic evaluation is subject to a number of limitations. These range from no credible assessment of key assumptions and scarce evidence regarding the relative performance of different methods, to lack of reporting of important study elements, such as a summary outcome measure and its associated sampling uncertainty. Further research is required to better understand the ways in which observational data should be analysed in the context of the economic evaluation framework. PMID:24229445

A regime-switching cointegration approach for removing environmental and operational variations in structural health monitoring

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shi, Haichen; Worden, Keith; Cross, Elizabeth J.

2018-03-01

Cointegration is now extensively used to model the long term common trends among economic variables in the field of econometrics. Recently, cointegration has been successfully implemented in the context of structural health monitoring (SHM), where it has been used to remove the confounding influences of environmental and operational variations (EOVs) that can often mask the signature of structural damage. However, restrained by its linear nature, the conventional cointegration approach has limited power in modelling systems where measurands are nonlinearly related; this occurs, for example, in the benchmark study of the Z24 Bridge, where nonlinear relationships between natural frequencies were induced during a period of very cold temperatures. To allow the removal of EOVs from SHM data with nonlinear relationships like this, this paper extends the well-established cointegration method to a nonlinear context, which is to allow a breakpoint in the cointegrating vector. In a novel approach, the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) statistic is used to find which position is most appropriate for inserting a breakpoint, the Johansen procedure is then utilised for the estimation of cointegrating vectors. The proposed approach is examined with a simulated case and real SHM data from the Z24 Bridge, demonstrating that the EOVs can be neatly eliminated.

The Role of the Manufacturer in Air Transportation Planning

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mackenzie, J.

1972-01-01

The role of the aircraft manufacturer in the airline industry is considered. The process is illustrated by using a fictitious airline as an example--that is, a case study approach with Mid-Coast Airways serving as the example. Both in slide form and with supporting papers, a brief history of the airline, a description of its route structure and a forecast based on econometric analysis are presented. Once the forecast rationale is explained, information outlines the requirements for additional aircraft and the application of new aircraft across the system using alternative fleet plan options. The fleet plan is translated into financial summaries which indicate the relative merit of alternative aircraft types or operating plans.

Bootstrapping Student Understanding of What Is Going on in Econometrics.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy, Peter E.

2001-01-01

Explains that econometrics is an intellectual game played by rules based on the sampling distribution concept. Contains explanations for why many students are uncomfortable with econometrics. Encourages instructors to use explain-how-to-bootstrap exercises to promote student understanding. (RLH)

Economics of technological change - A joint model for the aircraft and airline industries

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kneafsey, J. T.; Taneja, N. K.

1981-01-01

The principal focus of this econometric model is on the process of technological change in the U.S. aircraft manufacturing and airline industries. The problem of predicting the rate of introduction of current technology aircraft into an airline's fleet during the period of research, development, and construction for new technology aircraft arises in planning aeronautical research investments. The approach in this model is a statistical one. It attempts to identify major factors that influence transport aircraft manufacturers and airlines, and to correlate them with the patterns of delivery of new aircraft to the domestic trunk carriers. The functional form of the model has been derived from several earlier econometric models on the economics of innovation, acquisition, and technological change.

Econometrics of joint production: another approach. [Petroleum refining and petrochemicals production

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Griffin, J.M.

1977-11-01

The pseudo data approach to the joint production of petroleum refining and chemicals is described as an alternative that avoids the multicollinearity of time series data and allows a complex technology to be characterized in a statistical price possibility frontier. Intended primarily for long-range analysis, the pseudo data method can be used as a source of elasticity estimate for policy analysis. 19 references.

The regional economic impacts of bypasses : a longitudinal study incorporating spatial panel econometrics and multilevel modeling.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-01

This paper will describe an integrated approach to documenting and quantifying the impacts of bypasses : on small communities, with a focus on what economic impacts, if any, occur, and how these impacts : change over time. Two similarly sized communi...

Intrafirm planning and mathematical modeling of owner's equity in industrial enterprises

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ponomareva, S. V.; Zheleznova, I. V.

2018-05-01

The article aims to review the different approaches to intrafirm planning of owner's equity in industrial enterprises. Since charter capital, additional capital and reserve capital do not change in the process of enterprise activity, the main interest lies on the field of share repurchases from shareholders and retained earnings within the owner's equity of the enterprise. In order to study the effect of share repurchases on the activities of the enterprise, let us use such mathematical methods as event study and econometric modeling. This article describes the step-by-step algorithm of carrying out event study and justifies the choice of Logit model in econometric analysis. The article represents basic results of conducted regression analysis on the effect of share repurchases on the key financial indicators in industrial enterprises.

Managing Complex IT Security Processes with Value Based Measures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

2009-01-01

Current trends indicate that IT security measures will need to greatly expand to counter the ever increasingly sophisticated, well-funded and/or economically motivated threat space. Traditional risk management approaches provide an effective method for guiding courses of action for assessment, and mitigation investments. However, such approaches no matter how popular demand very detailed knowledge about the IT security domain and the enterprise/cyber architectural context. Typically, the critical nature and/or high stakes require careful consideration and adaptation of a balanced approach that provides reliable and consistent methods for rating vulnerabilities. As reported in earlier works, the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System provides amore » comprehensive measure of reliability, security and safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. This paper advocates a dependability measure that acknowledges the aggregate structure of complex system specifications, and accounts for variations by stakeholder, by specification components, and by verification and validation impact.« less

State Labor Market Research Study: An Econometric Analysis of the Effects of Labor Subsidies.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

MacRae, C. Duncan; And Others

The report describes the construction, application, and theoretical implications of an econometric model depicting the effects of labor subsidies on the supply of workers in the U.S. Three papers deal with the following aspects of constructing the econometric model: (1) examination of equilibrium wages, employment, and earnings of primary and…

What is mLearning and How Can It Be Used to Support Learning and Teaching in Econometrics?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Morales, Lucia

2013-01-01

The aim of case this study was to analyze the integration of mobile learning technologies in a postgraduate course in Finance (MSc in Finance) at Dublin Institute of Technology, where econometrics is an important course component. Previous experience with students undertaking econometrics modules supported this analysis, where the researcher…

A Transactions Cost Economics Approach to Defense Acquisition Management

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-12-30

A path-breaking econometric study (Masten et al., 1991) based on the procurement of components and services by a large naval shipbuilder indicates...philosophy with four formal levels of hierarchical IPTs—from project-level working groups to over- arching OSD-level “teams.” Key in the IPT concept is

Identification and Inference for Econometric Models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Donald W. K.; Stock, James H.

2005-07-01

This volume contains the papers presented in honor of the lifelong achievements of Thomas J. Rothenberg on the occasion of his retirement. The authors of the chapters include many of the leading econometricians of our day, and the chapters address topics of current research significance in econometric theory. The chapters cover four themes: identification and efficient estimation in econometrics, asymptotic approximations to the distributions of econometric estimators and tests, inference involving potentially nonstationary time series, such as processes that might have a unit autoregressive root, and nonparametric and semiparametric inference. Several of the chapters provide overviews and treatments of basic conceptual issues, while others advance our understanding of the properties of existing econometric procedures and/or propose new ones. Specific topics include identification in nonlinear models, inference with weak instruments, tests for nonstationary in time series and panel data, generalized empirical likelihood estimation, and the bootstrap.

Multi-Year Revenue and Expenditure Forecasting for Small Municipal Governments.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-03-01

Management Audit Econometric Revenue Forecast Gap and Impact Analysis Deterministic Expenditure Forecast Municipal Forecasting Municipal Budget Formlto...together with a multi-year revenue and expenditure forecasting model for the City of Monterey, California. The Monterey model includes an econometric ...65 5 D. FORECAST BASED ON THE ECONOMETRIC MODEL ------- 67 E. FORECAST BASED ON EXPERT JUDGMENT AND TREND ANALYSIS

Econometrics as evidence? Examining the 'causal' connections between financial speculation and commodities prices.

PubMed

Williams, James W; Cook, Nikolai M

2016-10-01

One of the lasting legacies of the financial crisis of 2008, and the legislative energies that followed from it, is the growing reliance on econometrics as part of the rulemaking process. Financial regulators are increasingly expected to rationalize proposed rules using available econometric techniques, and the courts have vacated several key rules emanating from Dodd-Frank on the grounds of alleged deficiencies in this evidentiary effort. The turn toward such econometric tools is seen as a significant constraint on and challenge to regulators as they endeavor to engage with such essential policy questions as the impact of financial speculation on food security. Yet, outside of the specialized practitioner community, very little is known about these techniques. This article examines one such econometric test, Granger causality, and its role in a pivotal Dodd-Frank rulemaking. Through an examination of the test for Granger causality and its attempts to distill the causal connections between financial speculation and commodities prices, the article argues that econometrics is a blunt but useful tool, limited in its ability to provide decisive insights into commodities markets and yet yielding useful returns for those who are able to wield it.

Female-Male Earnings Differentials and Occupational Structure.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Terrell, Katherine

1992-01-01

A review of econometric literature on female-male wage differences and asymmetrical distribution in occupations shows that differences in returns to human capital (i.e., discrimination) explains far more of the wage gap than differences in education and experience. Crowding of women into few occupations depresses wages. (SK)

The SRI-WEFA Soviet Econometric Model: Phase One Documentation

DTIC Science & Technology

1975-03-01

established prices. We also have an estimated equation for an end-use residual category which conceptually includes state grain reserves, other undis...forecasting. An important virtue of the econometric discipline is that it requires one first to conceptualize and estimate regularities of behavior...any de- scriptive analysis. Within the framwork of an econometric model, the analyst is able to discriminate among these "special events

Econometrics of exhaustible resource supply: a theory and an application

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Epple, D.

1983-01-01

This report takes a major step toward developing a fruitful approach to empirical analysis of resource supply. It is the first empirical application of resource theory that has successfully integrated the effects of depletion of nonrenewable resources with the effects of uncertainty about future costs and prices on supply behavior. Thus, the model is a major improvement over traditional engineering-optimization models that assume complete certainty, and over traditional econometrics models that are only implicitly related to the theory of resource supply. The model is used to test hypotheses about interdependence of oil and natural gas discoveries, depletion, ultimate recovery, andmore » the role of price expectations. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using exhaustible resource theory in the development of empirically testable models. 19 refs., 1 fig., 5 tabs.« less

Modeling and simulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanham, R.; Vogt, W.G.; Mickle, M.H.

1986-01-01

This book presents the papers given at a conference on computerized simulation. Topics considered at the conference included expert systems, modeling in electric power systems, power systems operating strategies, energy analysis, a linear programming approach to optimum load shedding in transmission systems, econometrics, simulation in natural gas engineering, solar energy studies, artificial intelligence, vision systems, hydrology, multiprocessors, and flow models.

A Diagrammatic Exposition of Regression and Instrumental Variables for the Beginning Student

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foster, Gigi

2009-01-01

Some beginning students of statistics and econometrics have difficulty with traditional algebraic approaches to explaining regression and related techniques. For these students, a simple and intuitive diagrammatic introduction as advocated by Kennedy (2008) may prove a useful framework to support further study. The author presents a series of…

Handbook of the Economics of Education. Volume 3

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanushek, Eric A., Ed.; Machin, Stephen J., Ed.; Woessmann, Ludger, Ed.

2011-01-01

How does education affect economic and social outcomes, and how can it inform public policy? Volume 3 of the Handbooks in the Economics of Education uses newly available high quality data from around the world to address these and other core questions. With the help of new methodological approaches, contributors cover econometric methods and…

Reliability-based econometrics of aerospace structural systems: Design criteria and test options. Ph.D. Thesis - Georgia Inst. of Tech.

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Thomas, J. M.; Hanagud, S.

1974-01-01

The design criteria and test options for aerospace structural reliability were investigated. A decision methodology was developed for selecting a combination of structural tests and structural design factors. The decision method involves the use of Bayesian statistics and statistical decision theory. Procedures are discussed for obtaining and updating data-based probabilistic strength distributions for aerospace structures when test information is available and for obtaining subjective distributions when data are not available. The techniques used in developing the distributions are explained.

Legitimate Techniques for Improving the R-Square and Related Statistics of a Multiple Regression Model

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-01-01

explanatory variable has been ommitted. Ramsey (1974) has developed a rather interesting test for detecting specification errors using estimates of the...Peter. (1979) A Guide to Econometrics , Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press. Ramsey , J.B. (1974), "Classical Model Selection Through Specification Error... Tests ," in P. Zarembka, Ed. Frontiers in Econometrics , New York: Academia Press. Theil, Henri. (1971), Principles of Econometrics , New York: John Wiley

Interrelation of GDP and pension capital: Mathematical and econometrical analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nepp, A. N.; Dolgodvorov, A. D.

2016-12-01

This article is a mathematicalanalysis of the relationship between GDP and the development of funded pension systems. For this purpose, a mathematical formula was derived from the macro-economic GDP, proportional to the level of income and consumption for the dependence of GDP on the level of pension payments, the value of pension savings and the structure of compulsory contributions to the pension fund allocated to the distribution and accumulative pension system. A derivation of the equation proves the linear relationship of GDP and the share of pension contributions channeled to the funded pension system. Thus, the macroeconomic indicator with the larger negative impact on GDP was proven to be the elimination of the compulsory funded pension system. Based on the econometric analysis, the positive effect of the distributive pension system was proven on macroeconomic parameters.

Analyzing the Effects of Technological Change: A Computable General Equilibrium Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-09-01

to obtain. One way out of this dilemma is to change slightly the interpretation of the formal model of consumer behavior which has been presented above...approach to analyzing the economy-wide effects of a phenomenon such as technological change. By focussing on aggregate producer and consumer behavior , it is... Consumer Behavior ." In R.L. Baseman and G. Rhodes, eds., Advances in Econometrics, vol. 1. Greenwich: JAI Press, 1982. Nagurney [1987] Nagurney, A

Class-Size Effects on Adolescents' Mental Health and Well-Being in Swedish Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jakobsson, Niklas; Persson, Mattias; Svensson, Mikael

2013-01-01

This paper analyzes whether class size has an effect on the prevalence of mental health problems and well-being among adolescents in Swedish schools. We use cross-sectional data collected in year 2008 covering 2755 Swedish adolescents in ninth grade from 40 schools and 159 classes. We utilize different econometric approaches to address potential…

Accounting for respondent uncertainty to improve willingness-to-pay estimates

Treesearch

Rebecca Moore; Richard C. Bishop; Bill Provencher; Patricia A. Champ

2010-01-01

In this paper, we develop an econometric model of willingness to pay (WTP) that integrates data on respondent uncertainty regarding their own WTP. The integration is utility consistent, there is no recoding of variables, and no need to calibrate the contingent responses to actual payment data, so the approach can "stand alone." In an application to a...

Refining cost-effectiveness analyses using the net benefit approach and econometric methods: an example from a trial of anti-depressant treatment.

PubMed

Sabes-Figuera, Ramon; McCrone, Paul; Kendricks, Antony

2013-04-01

Economic evaluation analyses can be enhanced by employing regression methods, allowing for the identification of important sub-groups and to adjust for imperfect randomisation in clinical trials or to analyse non-randomised data. To explore the benefits of combining regression techniques and the standard Bayesian approach to refine cost-effectiveness analyses using data from randomised clinical trials. Data from a randomised trial of anti-depressant treatment were analysed and a regression model was used to explore the factors that have an impact on the net benefit (NB) statistic with the aim of using these findings to adjust the cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Exploratory sub-samples' analyses were carried out to explore possible differences in cost-effectiveness. Results The analysis found that having suffered a previous similar depression is strongly correlated with a lower NB, independent of the outcome measure or follow-up point. In patients with previous similar depression, adding an selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) to supportive care for mild-to-moderate depression is probably cost-effective at the level used by the English National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence to make recommendations. This analysis highlights the need for incorporation of econometric methods into cost-effectiveness analyses using the NB approach.

Assessing Independent Variables Used in Econometric Modeling Forest Land Use or Land Cover Change: A Meta-Analysis

Treesearch

J Jeuck; F. Cubbage; R. Abt; R. Bardon; J. McCarter; J. Coulston; M. Renkow

2014-01-01

: We conducted a meta-analysis on 64 econometric models from 47 studies predicting forestland conversion to agriculture (F2A), forestland to development (F2D), forestland to non-forested (F2NF) and undeveloped (including forestland) to developed (U2D) land. Over 250 independent econometric variables were identified from 21 F2A models, 21 F2D models, 12 F2NF models, and...

The need for econometric research in laboratory animal operations.

PubMed

Baker, David G; Kearney, Michael T

2015-06-01

The scarcity of research funding can affect animal facilities in various ways. These effects can be evaluated by examining the allocation of financial resources in animal facilities, which can be facilitated by the use of mathematical and statistical methods to analyze economic problems, a discipline known as econometrics. The authors applied econometrics to study whether increasing per diem charges had a negative effect on the number of days of animal care purchased by animal users. They surveyed animal numbers and per diem charges at 20 research institutions and found that demand for large animals decreased as per diem charges increased. The authors discuss some of the challenges involved in their study and encourage research institutions to carry out more robust econometric studies of this and other economic questions facing laboratory animal research.

On the dynamic dependence and asymmetric co-movement between the US and Central and Eastern European transition markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Boubaker, Heni; Raza, Syed Ali

2016-10-01

In this paper, we attempt to evaluate the time-varying and asymmetric co-movement of CEE equity markets with the US stock markets around the subprime crisis and the resulting global financial crisis. The econometric approach adopted is based on recent development of time-varying copulas. For that, we propose a new class of time-varying copulas that allows for long memory behavior in both marginal and joint distributions. Our empirical approach relies on the flexibility and usefulness of bivariate copulas that allow to model not only the dynamic co-movement through time but also to account for any extreme interaction, nonlinearity and asymmetry in the co-movement patterns. The time-varying dependence structure can be also modeled conditionally on the economic policy uncertainty index of the crisis country. Empirical results show strong evidence of co-movement between the US and CEE equity markets and find that the co-movement exhibits large time-variations and asymmetry in the tails of the return distributions.

Price of gasoline: forecasting comparisons. [Box-Jenkins, econometric, and regression methods

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bopp, A.E.; Neri, J.A.

Gasoline prices are simulated using three popular forecasting methodologies: A Box--Jenkins type method, an econometric method, and a regression method. One-period-ahead and 18-period-ahead comparisons are made. For the one-period-ahead method, a Box--Jenkins type time-series model simulated best, although all do well. However, for the 18-period simulation, the econometric and regression methods perform substantially better than the Box-Jenkins formulation. A rationale for and implications of these results ae discussed. 11 references.

Analytical-numerical solution of a nonlinear integrodifferential equation in econometrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kakhktsyan, V. M.; Khachatryan, A. Kh.

2013-07-01

A mixed problem for a nonlinear integrodifferential equation arising in econometrics is considered. An analytical-numerical method is proposed for solving the problem. Some numerical results are presented.

Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) - U.S. Copyright TXu 1-901-039

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Schlicher, Bob G; Sheldon, Frederick T

2014-01-01

Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance, and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder, CSESmore » accounts for the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. The basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings contained in this copyright.« less

School Accountability, Autonomy, Choice, and the Level of Student Achievement: International Evidence from PISA 2003. OECD Education Working Papers, No. 13

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wobmann, Ludger; Ludemann, Elke; Schutz, Gabriela; West, Martin R.

2007-01-01

Accountability, autonomy, and choice play a leading role in recent school reforms in many countries. This report provides new evidence on whether students perform better in school systems that have such institutional measures in place. We implement an internationally comparative approach within a rigorous micro-econometric framework that accounts…

The Well-Being of Children Born to Teen Mothers: Multiple Approaches to Assessing the Causal Links. JCPR Working Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Levine, Judith A.; Pollack, Harold

This study used linked maternal-child data from the 1997-1998 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to explore the wellbeing of children born to teenage mothers. Two econometric techniques explored the causal impact of early childbearing on subsequent child and adolescent outcomes. First, a fixed-effect, cousin-comparison analysis controlled for…

India's pulp and paper industry: Productivity and energy efficiency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schumacher, Katja

1999-07-01

Historical estimates of productivity growth in India's pulp and paper sector vary from indicating an improvement to a decline in the sector's productivity. The variance may be traced to the time period of study, source of data for analysis, and type of indices and econometric specifications used for reporting productivity growth. The authors derive both statistical and econometric estimates of productivity growth for this sector. Their results show that productivity declined over the observed period from 1973-74 to 1993-94 by 1.1% p.a. Using a translog specification the econometric analysis reveals that technical progress in India's pulp and paper sector hasmore » been biased towards the use of energy and material, while it has been capital and labor saving. The decline in productivity was caused largely by the protection afforded by high tariffs on imported paper products and other policies, which allowed inefficient, small plants to enter the market and flourish. Will these trends continue into the future, particularly where energy use is concerned? The authors examine the current changes in structure and energy efficiency undergoing in the sector. Their analysis shows that with liberalization of the sector, and tighter environmental controls, the industry is moving towards higher efficiency and productivity. However, the analysis also shows that because these improvements are being hampered by significant financial and other barriers the industry might have a long way to go.« less

Revealing Failures in the History of School Finance. NBER Working Paper No. 15491

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lindert, Peter H.

2009-01-01

This essay proposes a set of non-econometric tests using data on wage structure, school resource costs, public expenditures, taxes, and rates of return to explain anomalies in which richer political units deliver less education than poorer ones. Both the anomalies of education history, and its less surprising contrasts, fit broad patterns that can…

National projections of forest and rangeland condition indicators: a supporting technical document for the 1999 RPA assessment.

Treesearch

John Hof; Curtis Flather; Tony Baltic; Stephen Davies

1999-01-01

The 1999 forest and rangeland condition indicator model is a set of independent econometric production functions for environmental outputs (measured with condition indicators) at the national scale. This report documents the development of the database and the statistical estimation required by this particular production structure with emphasis on two special...

The Changing Role of State Appropriations for Higher Education: An Econometric Analysis from 1985-2008

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mushrush, Christopher E.

2013-01-01

Traditionally, public funding of higher education has been viewed as cyclical, where support falls during times of economic downturn and then recovers as the economy improves. This view, however, is being challenged as budgetary shortfalls are becoming more common for states, even in times of economic growth, due to structural constraints. Using…

Advance to and Persistence in Graduate School: Identifying the Influential Factors and Major-Based Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xu, Yonghong Jade

2014-01-01

Structured within an expanded econometric theoretical framework, this study uses national data sources to identify the critical factors that influence college graduates' advance to and persistence in graduate education and to compare the systematic differences between students in the STEM and non-STEM majors. The findings indicate that there is a…

Bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fry, John

2014-01-01

In this paper we provide a unifying framework for a set of seemingly disparate models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies in financial markets. Markets operate by balancing intrinsic levels of risk and return. This seemingly simple observation is commonly over-looked by academics and practitioners alike. Our model shares its origins in statistical physics with others. However, under our approach, changes in market regime can be explicitly shown to represent a phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices. This structure leads to an improved physical and econometric model. We develop models for bubbles, shocks and elementary technical trading strategies. The list of empirical applications is both interesting and topical and includes real-estate bubbles and the on-going Eurozone crisis. We close by comparing the results of our model with purely qualitative findings from the finance literature.

Cost Effectiveness Trade-Offs in Software Support Environment Standardization.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-09-30

IIIIIEEEIIIIIE MiII I U..2 2 ma MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART 911C FILE C y, o FINAL REPORT - September 30, 1986 G- TECHNION INTERNATIONAL, INC. Cost...Summary description of econometric model B-I C. Causal chain used as basis for model C-I D. Excerpts from [Wer185) D-1 LIST OF FIGURES S-1 USAF MCCR...Productivity cost drivers D-4 LIST OF TASL3$ I-1 Summary of Tangible Benefits in Econometric Equations 1-9 1-2 Summary of Tangible Costs in Econometric

Appendix : airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-12-19

This is the Appendix for Airborne Incidents: An Econometric Analysis of Severity Report. : Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with another aircraft or terrai...

Econometrically calibrated computable general equilibrium models: Applications to the analysis of energy and climate politics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schu, Kathryn L.

Economy-energy-environment models are the mainstay of economic assessments of policies to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, yet their empirical basis is often criticized as being weak. This thesis addresses these limitations by constructing econometrically calibrated models in two policy areas. The first is a 35-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the U.S. economy which analyzes the uncertain impacts of CO2 emission abatement. Econometric modeling of sectors' nested constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions based on a 45-year price-quantity dataset yields estimates of capital-labor-energy-material input substitution elasticities and biases of technical change that are incorporated into the CGE model. I use the estimated standard errors and variance-covariance matrices to construct the joint distribution of the parameters of the economy's supply side, which I sample to perform Monte Carlo baseline and counterfactual runs of the model. The resulting probabilistic abatement cost estimates highlight the importance of the uncertainty in baseline emissions growth. The second model is an equilibrium simulation of the market for new vehicles which I use to assess the response of vehicle prices, sales and mileage to CO2 taxes and increased corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) standards. I specify an econometric model of a representative consumer's vehicle preferences using a nested CES expenditure function which incorporates mileage and other characteristics in addition to prices, and develop a novel calibration algorithm to link this structure to vehicle model supplies by manufacturers engaged in Bertrand competition. CO2 taxes' effects on gasoline prices reduce vehicle sales and manufacturers' profits if vehicles' mileage is fixed, but these losses shrink once mileage can be adjusted. Accelerated CAFE standards induce manufacturers to pay fines for noncompliance rather than incur the higher costs of radical mileage improvements. Neither policy induces major increases in fuel economy.

Skills for a Low-Carbon Europe: The Role of VET in a Sustainable Energy Scenario. Synthesis Report. Research Paper No 34

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ranieri, Antonio, Ed.

2013-01-01

This report provides an analysis of the labour market impacts of EU policy interventions designed to support the transition to a job-rich, low-carbon economy. The approach taken is innovative as it combines quantitative (econometric modelling) and qualitative (case study) methods to investigate the expected impact of sustainable energy policies on…

The stability of coupled renewal-differential equations with econometric applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rhoten, R. P.; Aggarwal, J. K.

1969-01-01

Concepts and results are presented in the fields of mathematical modeling, economics, and stability analysis. A coupled renewal-differential equation structure is presented as a modeling form for systems possessing hereditary characteristics, and this structure is applied to a model of the Austrian theory of business cycles. For realistic conditions, the system is shown to have an infinite number of poles, and conditions are presented which are both necessary and sufficient for all poles to lie strictly in the left half plane.

A revised econometric model of the domestic pallet market

Treesearch

Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

1983-01-01

The purpose of this revised model is to project estimates of consumption and price of wooden pallets in the short term. This model differs from previous ones developed by Schuler and Wallin (1979 and 1980) in the following respects: The structure of the supply side of the market is more realistically identified (from an economic theory point of view) by including...

Airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity, December 31, 2014 : technical summary

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-12-31

This is a technical summary of the Airborne Incidents: An Econometric Analysis of Severity main report. : Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with anoth...

Econometric Models of U.S. Navy Career Petty Officer Retention.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-06-01

PF AD-AL04 076 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA F/6 5/9 ECONO ETRIC MODELS OF U.S. NAVY CAREER PETTY OFFICER RETENTION.(Ul JUN 81 J J B PKO...THESIS D . ECONOMETRIC MODELS OF U. S. NAVY CAREER PETTY OFFICER RETENTION SML Vby John Joseph Bepko III June 1981 Thesis Advisor: George W. Thomas...DOCUMENTATION PACE 33703 coTu~rwc oEm 0419PsR 01N1911VT*48~ &GM01 1𔃻. 411CIP1SIMYS CATALOG IulmSIS Econometric Models of U. S. Navy Career Petty 1’ t h s s j

Econometrics of exhaustible resource supply: a theory and an application. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Epple, D.; Hansen, L.P.

1981-12-01

An econometric model of US oil and natural gas discoveries is developed in this study. The econometric model is explicitly derived as the solution to the problem of maximizing the expected discounted after tax present value of revenues net of exploration, development, and production costs. The model contains equations representing producers' formation of price expectations and separate equations giving producers' optimal exploration decisions contingent on expected prices. A procedure is developed for imposing resource base constraints (e.g., ultimate recovery estimates based on geological analysis) when estimating the econometric model. The model is estimated using aggregate post-war data for the Unitedmore » States. Production from a given addition to proved reserves is assumed to follow a negative exponential path, and additions of proved reserves from a given discovery are assumed to follow a negative exponential path. Annual discoveries of oil and natural gas are estimated as latent variables. These latent variables are the endogenous variables in the econometric model of oil and natural gas discoveries. The model is estimated without resource base constraints. The model is also estimated imposing the mean oil and natural gas ultimate recovery estimates of the US Geological Survey. Simulations through the year 2020 are reported for various future price regimes.« less

Synopsis of Evaluating Security Controls Based on Key Performance Indicators and Stakeholder Mission Value

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Mili, Ali

2008-01-01

Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with the goal of improved enterprise and business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative work styles, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation of a balanced approach. The Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) provides a measure of reliability, security and safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. For a given stakeholder,more » CSES reflects the variance that may exist among the stakes one attaches to meeting each requirement. This paper summarizes the basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural underpinnings.« less

The log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model for financial crashes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gazola, L.; Fernandes, C.; Pizzinga, A.; Riera, R.

2008-02-01

This paper intends to meet recent claims for the attainment of more rigorous statistical methodology within the econophysics literature. To this end, we consider an econometric approach to investigate the outcomes of the log-periodic model of price movements, which has been largely used to forecast financial crashes. In order to accomplish reliable statistical inference for unknown parameters, we incorporate an autoregressive dynamic and a conditional heteroskedasticity structure in the error term of the original model, yielding the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model. Both the original and the extended models are fitted to financial indices of U. S. market, namely S&P500 and NASDAQ. Our analysis reveal two main points: (i) the log-periodic-AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) model has residuals with better statistical properties and (ii) the estimation of the parameter concerning the time of the financial crash has been improved.

Econometrics and Psychometrics: A Survey of Communalities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goldberger, Arthur S.

1971-01-01

Several themes which are common to both econometrics and psychometrics are surveyed. The themes are illustrated by reference to permanent income hypotheses, simultaneous equation models, adaptive expectations and partial adjustment schemes, and by reference to test score theory, factor analysis, and time-series models. (Author)

Climate change and future land use in the United States: an economic approach

Treesearch

David Haim; Ralph J. Alig; Andrew J. Plantinga; Brent Sohngen

2011-01-01

An econometric land-use model is used to project regional and national land-use changes in the United States under two IPCC emissions scenarios. The key driver of land-use change in the model is county-level measures of net returns to five major land uses. The net returns are modified for the IPCC scenarios according to assumed trends in population and income and...

Empirical spatial econometric modelling of small scale neighbourhood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gerkman, Linda

2012-07-01

The aim of the paper is to model small scale neighbourhood in a house price model by implementing the newest methodology in spatial econometrics. A common problem when modelling house prices is that in practice it is seldom possible to obtain all the desired variables. Especially variables capturing the small scale neighbourhood conditions are hard to find. If there are important explanatory variables missing from the model, the omitted variables are spatially autocorrelated and they are correlated with the explanatory variables included in the model, it can be shown that a spatial Durbin model is motivated. In the empirical application on new house price data from Helsinki in Finland, we find the motivation for a spatial Durbin model, we estimate the model and interpret the estimates for the summary measures of impacts. By the analysis we show that the model structure makes it possible to model and find small scale neighbourhood effects, when we know that they exist, but we are lacking proper variables to measure them.

Glossary for econometrics and epidemiology.

PubMed

Gunasekara, F Imlach; Carter, K; Blakely, T

2008-10-01

Epidemiologists and econometricians are often interested in similar topics-socioeconomic position and health outcomes-but the different languages that epidemiologists and economists use to interpret and discuss their results can create a barrier to mutual communication. This glossary defines key terms used in econometrics and epidemiology to assist in bridging this gap.

Transportation and socioeconomic impacts of bypasses on communities : an integrated synthesis of panel data, multilevel, and spatial econometric models with case studies.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-09-21

Title: Transportation and Socioeconomic Impacts of Bypasses on Communities: An Integrated Synthesis of Panel Data, Multilevel, and Spatial Econometric Models with Case Studies. The title used at the start of this project was Transportation and Soc...

Time Series Econometrics for the 21st Century

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hansen, Bruce E.

2017-01-01

The field of econometrics largely started with time series analysis because many early datasets were time-series macroeconomic data. As the field developed, more cross-sectional and longitudinal datasets were collected, which today dominate the majority of academic empirical research. In nonacademic (private sector, central bank, and governmental)…

Assessing the feasibility of community health insurance in Uganda: A mixed-methods exploratory analysis.

PubMed

Biggeri, M; Nannini, M; Putoto, G

2018-03-01

Community health insurance (CHI) aims to provide financial protection and facilitate health care access among poor rural populations. Given common operational challenges that hamper the full development of the scheme, there is need to undertake systematic feasibility studies. These are scarce in the literature and usually they do not provide a comprehensive analysis of the local context. The present research intends to adopt a mixed-methods approach to assess ex-ante the feasibility of CHI. In particular, eight preconditions are proposed to inform the viability of introducing the micro insurance. A case study located in rural northern Uganda is presented to test the effectiveness of the mixed-methods procedure for the feasibility purpose. A household survey covering 180 households, 8 structured focus group discussions, and 40 key informant interviews were performed between October and December 2016 in order to provide a complete and integrated analysis of the feasibility preconditions. Through the data collected at the household level, the population health seeking behaviours and the potential insurance design were examined; econometric analyses were carried out to investigate the perception of health as a priority need and the willingness to pay for the scheme. The latter component, in particular, was analysed through a contingent valuation method. The results validated the relevant feasibility preconditions. Econometric estimates demonstrated that awareness of catastrophic health expenditures and the distance to the hospital play a critical influence on household priorities and willingness to pay. Willingness is also significantly affected by socio-economic status and basic knowledge of insurance principles. Overall, the mixed-methods investigation showed that a comprehensive feasibility analysis can shape a viable CHI model to be implemented in the local context. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Application of an Entropic Approach to Assessing Systems Integration

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-03-01

two econometrical measures of information efficiency – Shannon entropy and Hurst exponent . Shannon entropy (which is explained in Chapter III) can be...applied to evaluate long-term correlation of time series, while Hurst exponent can be applied to classify the time series in accordance to existence...of trend. Hurst exponent is the statistical measure of time series long-range dependence, and its value falls in the interval [0, 1] – a value in

U.S. COIN Doctrine: Betting the Future on a Too Distant Past

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-05-17

authority. This conceptualization also draws on the Maoist model of insurgency reflecting the influence that 20th Century events have on current...doctrine. The model for legitimate government is a representative government, which Galula points out, is responsive to the needs of its people. JP 1-02... econometrics approach to address the COIN problem. Systems analysis implied that there were two competing systems, insurgency and COIN, with the

Understrength Air Force Officer Career Fields. A Force Management Approach

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-01-01

LtCol John Crown (DPSA). In addition, we had very helpful interviews with Mr. Vaughan Blackstone (DPAPP) and Mr. Dennis Miller (DPPAO). Also at...econometric impact analysis that was used to determine an optimal bonus amount or target population prior to bonus implementation.15 The success of...problems in managing personnel assignments. First, there is a high " tax " for special-duty jobs that requires them to place personnel officers into

An Econometric Model for Forecasting Income and Employment in Hawaii.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chau, Laurence C.

This report presents the methodology for short-run forecasting of personal income and employment in Hawaii. The econometric model developed in the study is used to make actual forecasts through 1973 of income and employment, with major components forecasted separately. Several sets of forecasts are made, under different assumptions on external…

Outputs as Educator Effectiveness in the United States: Shifting towards Political Accountability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Piro, Jody S.; Mullen, Laurie

2013-01-01

The definition of educator effectiveness is being redefined by econometric modeling to evidence student achievement on standardized tests. While the reasons that econometric frameworks are in vogue are many, it is clear that the strength of such models lie in the quantifiable evidence of student learning. Current accountability models frame…

Econometric Models for Forecasting of Macroeconomic Indices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sukhanova, Elena I.; Shirnaeva, Svetlana Y.; Mokronosov, Aleksandr G.

2016-01-01

The urgency of the research topic was stipulated by the necessity to carry out an effective controlled process by the economic system which can hardly be imagined without indices forecasting characteristic of this system. An econometric model is a safe tool of forecasting which makes it possible to take into consideration the trend of indices…

Econometric Methods for Causal Evaluation of Education Policies and Practices: A Non-Technical Guide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schlotter, Martin; Schwerdt, Guido; Woessmann, Ludger

2011-01-01

Education policy-makers and practitioners want to know which policies and practices can best achieve their goals. But research that can inform evidence-based policy often requires complex methods to distinguish causation from accidental association. Avoiding econometric jargon and technical detail, this paper explains the main idea and intuition…

An econometric model of the hardwood lumber market

Treesearch

William G. Luppold

1982-01-01

A recursive econometric model with causal flow originating from the demand relationship is used to analyze the effects of exogenous variables on quantity and price of hardwood lumber. Wage rates, interest rates, stumpage price, lumber exports, and price of lumber demanders' output were the major factors influencing quantities demanded and supplied and hardwood...

The Status of Econometrics in the Economics Major: A Survey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Bruce K.; Perry, John J.; Petkus, Marie

2012-01-01

In this article, the authors describe the place of econometrics in undergraduate economics curricula in all American colleges and universities that offer economics majors as listed in the "U.S. News & World Report" "Best Colleges 2010" guide ("U.S. News & World Report" 2009). Data come from online catalogs, departmental Web sites, and online…

Empirical methods for modeling landscape change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity

Treesearch

David Lewis; Ralph Alig

2009-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent economics research aimed at integrating discrete-choice econometric models of land-use change with spatially-explicit landscape simulations and quantitative ecology. This research explicitly models changes in the spatial pattern of landscapes in two steps: 1) econometric estimation of parcel-scale transition...

Medium-term electric power demand forecasting based on economic-electricity transmission model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Wenfeng; Bao, Fangmin; Bai, Hongkun; Liu, Wei; Liu, Yongmin; Mao, Yubin; Wang, Jiangbo; Liu, Junhui

2018-06-01

Electric demand forecasting is a basic work to ensure the safe operation of power system. Based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this paper introduces Prognoz Platform 7.2 intelligent adaptive modeling platform, and constructs the economic electricity transmission model that considers the economic development scenarios and the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure to predict the region's annual electricity demand, and the accurate prediction of the whole society's electricity consumption is realized. Firstly, based on the theories of experimental economics and econometrics, this dissertation attempts to find the economic indicator variables that drive the most economical growth of electricity consumption and availability, and build an annual regional macroeconomic forecast model that takes into account the dynamic adjustment of industrial structure. Secondly, it innovatively put forward the economic electricity directed conduction theory and constructed the economic power transfer function to realize the group forecast of the primary industry + rural residents living electricity consumption, urban residents living electricity, the second industry electricity consumption, the tertiary industry electricity consumption; By comparing with the actual value of economy and electricity in Henan province in 2016, the validity of EETM model is proved, and the electricity consumption of the whole province from 2017 to 2018 is predicted finally.

Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach

PubMed Central

Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

2014-01-01

We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009–10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals. PMID:25843994

Does a hospital's quality depend on the quality of other hospitals? A spatial econometrics approach.

PubMed

Gravelle, Hugh; Santos, Rita; Siciliani, Luigi

2014-11-01

We examine whether a hospital's quality is affected by the quality provided by other hospitals in the same market. We first sketch a theoretical model with regulated prices and derive conditions on demand and cost functions which determine whether a hospital will increase its quality if its rivals increase their quality. We then apply spatial econometric methods to a sample of English hospitals in 2009-10 and a set of 16 quality measures including mortality rates, readmission, revision and redo rates, and three patient reported indicators, to examine the relationship between the quality of hospitals. We find that a hospital's quality is positively associated with the quality of its rivals for seven out of the sixteen quality measures. There are no statistically significant negative associations. In those cases where there is a significant positive association, an increase in rivals' quality by 10% increases a hospital's quality by 1.7% to 2.9%. The finding suggests that for some quality measures a policy which improves the quality in one hospital will have positive spillover effects on the quality in other hospitals.

Market structure and the role of consumer information in the physician services industry: an empirical test.

PubMed

Wong, H S

1996-04-01

This paper applies Panzar and Rosse's (1987) econometric test of market structure to examine two long-debated issues: What is the market structure for physician services? Do more physicians in a market area raise the search cost of obtaining consumer information and increase prices (Satterthwaite, 1979, 1985)? For primary care and general and family practice physicians, the monopolistically competitive model prevailed over the competing hypotheses--monopoly, perfect competition, and monopolistic competition characterized by consumer informational confusion. Although less conclisive, there is some evidence to support the monopolistically competitive model for surgeons and the consumer informational confusion model for internal medicine physicians.

Pulling Econometrics Students up by Their Bootstraps

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Hara, Michael E.

2014-01-01

Although the concept of the sampling distribution is at the core of much of what we do in econometrics, it is a concept that is often difficult for students to grasp. The thought process behind bootstrapping provides a way for students to conceptualize the sampling distribution in a way that is intuitive and visual. However, teaching students to…

Econometric models of road use, accidents, and road investment decisions. Volume 2 : an econometric model of car ownership, road use, accidents, and their severity (Essay 3)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1999-11-01

Using a fairly large cross-section/time-series data base, covering all provinces of Norway and all months between January 1973 and December 1994, we estimate non-linear (Box-Cox) regression equations explaining aggregate car ownership, road use, seat...

Econometric Methods for Research in Education. NBER Working Paper No. 16003

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meghir, Costas; Rivkin, Steven G.

2010-01-01

This paper reviews some of the econometric methods that have been used in the economics of education. The focus is on understanding how the assumptions made to justify and implement such methods relate to the underlying economic model and the interpretation of the results. We start by considering the estimation of the returns to education both…

Econometric Estimation of the Economic Impact of a University. AIR 1993 Annual Forum Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gana, Rajaram

This study conducted an econometric analysis of the impact of the University of Delaware (UD), a public, doctoral level institution, on the Delaware economy, particularly the impact of nonresident students. To construct a model the study used historical institutional data from the Office of Institutional Research and Planning at UD and…

First-Year Study Success in Economics and Econometrics: The Role of Gender, Motivation, and Math Skills

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arnold, Ivo J. M.; Rowaan, Wietske

2014-01-01

In this study, the authors investigate the relationships among gender, math skills, motivation, and study success in economics and econometrics. They find that female students have stronger intrinsic motivation, yet lower study confidence than their male counterparts. They also find weak evidence for a gender gap over the entire first-year…

Determinants of Educational Achievement in Morocco: A Micro-Econometric Analysis Applied to the TIMSS Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ibourk, Aomar

2013-01-01

Based on data from international surveys measuring learning (TIMSS), this article focuses on the analysis of the academic performance Moroccan students. The results of the econometric model show that the students' characteristics, their family environment and school context are key determinants of these performances. The study also shows that the…

An Initial Econometric Consideration of Supply and Demand in the Guaranteed Student Loan Program.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bayus, Barry; Kendis, Kurt

1982-01-01

In this econometric model of the Guaranteed Student Loan Program (GSLP), supply is related to banks' liquidity and yield curves, all lenders' economic costs and returns, and Student Loan Marketing Association activity. GSLP demand is based on loan costs, family debt position, and net student need for financial aid. (RW)

78 FR 41161 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of Filing of Advance...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-07-09

... behavior is included in the econometric models underlying STANS, time series of proportional changes in... included in the econometric models underlying STANS, time series of proportional changes in implied... calculate daily margin requirements. OCC has proposed at this time to clear only OTC Options on the S&P 500...

Econometric Assessment of "One Minute" Paper as a Pedagogic Tool

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Das, Amaresh

2010-01-01

This paper makes an econometric testing of one-minute paper used as a tool to manage and assess instruction in my statistics class. One of our findings is that the one minute paper when I have tested it by using an OLS estimate in a controlled Vs experimental design framework is found to statistically significant and effective in enhancing…

The Anatomy of a Likely Donor: Econometric Evidence on Philanthropy to Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lara, Christen; Johnson, Daniel

2014-01-01

In 2011, philanthropic giving to higher education institutions totaled $30.3 billion, an 8.2% increase over the previous year. Roughly, 26% of those funds came from alumni donations. This article builds upon existing economic models to create an econometric model to explain and predict the pattern of alumni giving. We test the model using data…

Econometric analysis of the factors influencing forest acreage trends in the southeast.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig

1986-01-01

Econometric models of changes in land use acreages in the Southeast by physiographic region have been developed by pooling cross-section and time series data. Separate acreage equations have been estimated for the three major private forestland owner classes and the three major classes of nonforest land use. Observations were drawn at three or four different points in...

An econometric model of the U.S. pallet market

Treesearch

Albert T. Schuler; Walter B. Wallin

1979-01-01

A need for quantitative information on demand and price has been expressed by the pallet industry. In response to this, an econometric model of the aggregate U.S. pallet market was developed. Demand was found to be affected by real pallet price, industrial and food production levels, and slipsheet prices. Supply was affected by real price, housing starts lagged 1 year...

Econometric Model of Rice Policy Based On Presidential Instruction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abadi Sembiring, Surya; Hutauruk, Julia

2018-01-01

The objective of research is to build an econometric model based on Presidential Instruction rice policy. The data was monthly time series from March 2005 to September 2009. Rice policy model specification using simultaneous equation, consisting of 14 structural equations and four identity equation, which was estimated using Two Stages Least Squares (2SLS) method. The results show that: (1) an increase of government purchasing price of dried harvest paddy has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock, (2) an increase community rice stock lead to decrease the rice imports, (3) an increase of the realization of the distribution of subsidized ZA fertilizers and the realization of the distribution of subsidized NPK fertilizers has a positive impact on to increase in total rice production and community rice stock and to reduce rice imports, (4) the price of the dried harvest paddy is highly responsive to the water content of dried harvest paddy both the short run and long run, (5) the quantity of rice imported is highly responsive to the imported rice price, both short run and long run.

A multi-resolution approach for optimal mass transport

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dominitz, Ayelet; Angenent, Sigurd; Tannenbaum, Allen

2007-09-01

Optimal mass transport is an important technique with numerous applications in econometrics, fluid dynamics, automatic control, statistical physics, shape optimization, expert systems, and meteorology. Motivated by certain problems in image registration and medical image visualization, in this note, we describe a simple gradient descent methodology for computing the optimal L2 transport mapping which may be easily implemented using a multiresolution scheme. We also indicate how the optimal transport map may be computed on the sphere. A numerical example is presented illustrating our ideas.

A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity.

PubMed

Eluru, Naveen; Bhat, Chandra R

2007-09-01

This paper formulates a comprehensive econometric structure that recognizes two important issues in crash-related injury severity analysis. First, the impact of a factor on injury severity may be moderated by various observed and unobserved variables specific to an individual or to a crash. Second, seat belt use is likely to be endogenous to injury severity. That is, it is possible that intrinsically unsafe drivers do not wear seat belts and are the ones likely to be involved in high injury severity crashes because of their unsafe driving habits. The preceding issues are considered in the current research effort through the development of a comprehensive model of seat belt use and injury severity that takes the form of a joint correlated random coefficients binary-ordered response system. To our knowledge, this is the first instance of such a model formulation and application not only in the safety analysis literature, but in the econometrics literature in general. The empirical analysis is based on the 2003 General Estimates System (GES) data base. Several types of variables are considered to explain seat belt use and injury severity levels, including driver characteristics, vehicle characteristics, roadway design attributes, environmental factors, and crash characteristics. The results, in addition to confirming the effects of various explanatory variables, also highlight the importance of (a) considering the moderating effects of unobserved individual/crash-related factors on the determinants of injury severity and (b) seat belt use endogeneity. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that seat belt non-users, when apprehended in the act, should perhaps be subjected to both a fine (to increase the chances that they wear seat belts) as well as mandatory enrollment in a defensive driving course (to attempt to change their aggressive driving behaviors).

With string model to time series forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pinčák, Richard; Bartoš, Erik

2015-10-01

Overwhelming majority of econometric models applied on a long term basis in the financial forex market do not work sufficiently well. The reason is that transaction costs and arbitrage opportunity are not included, as this does not simulate the real financial markets. Analyses are not conducted on the non equidistant date but rather on the aggregate date, which is also not a real financial case. In this paper, we would like to show a new way how to analyze and, moreover, forecast financial market. We utilize the projections of the real exchange rate dynamics onto the string-like topology in the OANDA market. The latter approach allows us to build the stable prediction models in trading in the financial forex market. The real application of the multi-string structures is provided to demonstrate our ideas for the solution of the problem of the robust portfolio selection. The comparison with the trend following strategies was performed, the stability of the algorithm on the transaction costs for long trade periods was confirmed.

The Credibility Revolution in Empirical Economics: How Better Research Design is Taking the Con out of Econometrics. NBER Working Paper No. 15794

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Angrist, Joshua; Pischke, Jorn-Steffen

2010-01-01

This essay reviews progress in empirical economics since Leamer'rs (1983) critique. Leamer highlighted the benefits of sensitivity analysis, a procedure in which researchers show how their results change with changes in specification or functional form. Sensitivity analysis has had a salutary but not a revolutionary effect on econometric practice.…

The influence of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption and real income on CO2 emissions in the USA: evidence from structural break tests.

PubMed

Dogan, Eyup; Ozturk, Ilhan

2017-04-01

The objective of this study is to explore the influence of the real income (GDP), renewable energy consumption and non-renewable energy consumption on carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions for the United States of America (USA) in the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) model for the period 1980-2014. The Zivot-Andrews unit root test with a structural break and the Clemente-Montanes-Reyes unit root test with a structural break report that the analyzed variables become stationary at first-differences. The Gregory-Hansen cointegration test with a structural break and the bounds testing for cointegration in the presence of a structural break show CO 2 emissions, the real income, the quadratic real income, renewable and non-renewable energy consumption are cointegrated. The long-run estimates obtained from the ARDL model indicate that increases in renewable energy consumption mitigate environmental degradation whereas increases in non-renewable energy consumption contribute to CO 2 emissions. In addition, the EKC hypothesis is not valid for the USA. Since we use time-series econometric approaches that account for structural break in the data, findings of this study are robust, reliable and accurate. The US government is advised to put more weights on renewable sources in energy mix, to support and encourage the use and adoption of renewable energy and clean technologies, and to increase the public awareness of renewable energy for lower levels of emissions.

Economic effects of immigrants on native and foreign-born workers: complementarity, substitutability, and other channels of influence.

PubMed

Greenwood, M J; Hunt, G L

1995-04-01

The authors use Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA) data constructed from 1980 census microdata files and other sources to estimate a structural model of native/foreign-born labor demand and labor supply which distinguishes the effects upon real wages of each type of labor and on the employment of natives. The authors specify, econometrically estimate, and simulate the structural model which incorporates not only a production structure channel through which immigrants influence area real wages and employment, but also demand and native labor supply channels. It is noted that while these are not the only channels through which immigrants may affect native workers, the model nonetheless constitutes a step in the direction of a general equilibrium approach. In the production structure channel, immigrants and natives are found to be substitutes in production. Immigration lowers foreign-born wage rates and leads to lower wages for natives. The negative effects of the production channel usually are ameliorated through the demand channel. Further, immigrants add to local demand through their earnings and potentially through non-labor income, while also lowering unit costs and local prices which enhances real incomes and potentially net exports, and thus the demands for local output and area labor. The author discusses findings of interest from the simulation results based upon an analysis of all areas.

The Model Analyst’s Toolkit: Scientific Model Development, Analysis, and Validation

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-02-20

being integrated within MAT, including Granger causality. Granger causality tests whether a data series helps when predicting future values of another...relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 424-438. Granger, C. W. (1980). Testing ... testing dataset. This effort is described in Section 3.2. 3.1. Improvements in Granger Causality User Interface Various metrics of causality are

Geographical Network Analysis and Spatial Econometrics as Tools to Enhance Our Understanding of Student Migration Patterns and Benefits in the U.S. Higher Education Network

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

González Canché, Manuel S.

2018-01-01

This study measures the extent to which student outmigration outside the 4-year sector takes place and posits that the benefits from attracting non-resident students exist regardless of sector of enrollment. The study also provides empirical evidence about the relevance of employing geographical network analysis (GNA) and spatial econometrics in…

A spatial econometric analysis of land-use change with land cover trends data: an application to the Pacific Northwest

Treesearch

David J. Lewis; Ralph J. Alig

2014-01-01

This paper develops a plot-level spatial econometric land-use model and estimates it with U.S. Geological Survey Land Cover Trends (LCT) geographic information system panel data for the western halves of the states of Oregon and Washington. The discrete-choice framework we use models plot-scale choices of the three dominant land uses in this region: forest, agriculture...

An Applied Physicist Does Econometrics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taff, L. G.

2010-02-01

The biggest problem those attempting to understand econometric data, via modeling, have is that economics has no F = ma. Without a theoretical underpinning, econometricians have no way to build a good model to fit observations to. Physicists do, and when F = ma failed, we knew it. Still desiring to comprehend econometric data, applied economists turn to mis-applying probability theory---especially with regard to the assumptions concerning random errors---and choosing extremely simplistic analytical formulations of inter-relationships. This introduces model bias to an unknown degree. An applied physicist, used to having to match observations to a numerical or analytical model with a firm theoretical basis, modify the model, re-perform the analysis, and then know why, and when, to delete ``outliers'', is at a considerable advantage when quantitatively analyzing econometric data. I treat two cases. One is to determine the household density distribution of total assets, annual income, age, level of education, race, and marital status. Each of these ``independent'' variables is highly correlated with every other but only current annual income and level of education follow a linear relationship. The other is to discover the functional dependence of total assets on the distribution of assets: total assets has an amazingly tight power law dependence on a quadratic function of portfolio composition. Who knew? )

An investigation on the determinants of carbon emissions for OECD countries: empirical evidence from panel models robust to heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence.

PubMed

Dogan, Eyup; Seker, Fahri

2016-07-01

This empirical study analyzes the impacts of real income, energy consumption, financial development and trade openness on CO2 emissions for the OECD countries in the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model by using panel econometric approaches that consider issues of heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Results from the Pesaran CD test, the Pesaran-Yamagata's homogeneity test, the CADF and the CIPS unit root tests, the LM bootstrap cointegration test, the DSUR estimator, and the Emirmahmutoglu-Kose Granger causality test indicate that (i) the panel time-series data are heterogeneous and cross-sectionally dependent; (ii) CO2 emissions, real income, the quadratic income, energy consumption, financial development and openness are integrated of order one; (iii) the analyzed data are cointegrated; (iv) the EKC hypothesis is validated for the OECD countries; (v) increases in openness and financial development mitigate the level of emissions whereas energy consumption contributes to carbon emissions; (vi) a variety of Granger causal relationship is detected among the analyzed variables; and (vii) empirical results and policy recommendations are accurate and efficient since panel econometric models used in this study account for heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependence in their estimation procedures.

An Assessment of Japanese Carbon Tax Reform Using the E3MG Econometric Model

PubMed Central

Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

2012-01-01

This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of −25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed. PMID:23365531

Groundwater economics: An object-oriented foundation for integrated studies of irrigated agricultural systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Steward, David R.; Peterson, Jeffrey M.; Yang, Xiaoying; Bulatewicz, Tom; Herrera-Rodriguez, Mauricio; Mao, Dazhi; Hendricks, Nathan

2009-05-01

An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater wells and agricultural parcels is employed to couple these models using geographic information science technology and open modeling interface protocols. This approach is used to study the collective action problem of the common pool. Three different policies (existing, regulation, and incentive based) are studied in the semiarid grasslands overlying the Ogallala Aquifer in the central United States. Results show that while regulation using the prior appropriation doctrine and incentives using a water buy-back program may each achieve the same level of water savings across the study region, each policy has a different impact on spatial patterns of groundwater declines and farm level economic activity. This represents the first time that groundwater and econometric models of irrigated agriculture have been integrated at the well-parcel level and provides methods for scientific investigation of this coupled natural-human system. Results are useful for science to inform decision making and public policy debate.

Family planning choice behaviour in urban slums of Bangladesh: an econometric approach.

PubMed

Barkat, A; Rahman, M U; Bose, M L

1997-03-01

Bangladesh's urban population is projected to account for 26% of the country's total population by the year 2000 and 37% by 2015. A 1991 Bangladesh census report found that about 21 million of the total 111.5 million population were living in urban areas. 1551 currently-married women of reproductive age in 1551 households sampled from a representative sample of 91 slums in the metropolitan areas of Dhaka, Chittagong, and Khulna participated in a study of family planning behavior choice. 673 of the women were practicing family planning. The authors describe the construction of the econometric model used for analysis. Economic status as indicated by household income was found to considerably influence people's decisions concerning family planning practices. Higher women's educational status is also positively correlated with family planning practice. Husband's educational status has a less significant effect upon family planning practice. The change of a person from non-Muslim to Muslim has an insignificant, though positive, impact upon family planning practice. The more a woman feels empowered, being over age 19 years, the greater the number of living children, and the lower the level of preference for sons, the more likely a woman is to practice family planning.

An assessment of Japanese carbon tax reform using the E3MG econometric model.

PubMed

Lee, Soocheol; Pollitt, Hector; Ueta, Kazuhiro

2012-01-01

This paper analyses the potential economic and environmental effects of carbon taxation in Japan using the E3MG model, a global macroeconometric model constructed by the University of Cambridge and Cambridge Econometrics. The paper approaches the issues by considering first the impacts of the carbon tax in Japan introduced in 2012 and then the measures necessary to reduce Japan's emissions in line with its Copenhagen pledge of -25% compared to 1990 levels. The results from the model suggest that FY2012 Tax Reform has only a small impact on emission levels and no significant impact on GDP and employment. The potential costs of reducing emissions to meet the 25% reduction target for 2020 are quite modest, but noticeable. GDP falls by around 1.2% compared to the baseline and employment by 0.4% compared to the baseline. But this could be offset, with some potential economic benefits, if revenues are recycled efficiently. This paper considers two revenue recycling scenarios. The most positive outcome is if revenues are used both to reduce income tax rates and to increase investment in energy efficiency. This paper shows there could be double dividend effects, if Carbon Tax Reform is properly designed.

The Standard Model in the history of the Natural Sciences, Econometrics, and the social sciences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fisher, W. P., Jr.

2010-07-01

In the late 18th and early 19th centuries, scientists appropriated Newton's laws of motion as a model for the conduct of any other field of investigation that would purport to be a science. This early form of a Standard Model eventually informed the basis of analogies for the mathematical expression of phenomena previously studied qualitatively, such as cohesion, affinity, heat, light, electricity, and magnetism. James Clerk Maxwell is known for his repeated use of a formalized version of this method of analogy in lectures, teaching, and the design of experiments. Economists transferring skills learned in physics made use of the Standard Model, especially after Maxwell demonstrated the value of conceiving it in abstract mathematics instead of as a concrete and literal mechanical analogy. Haavelmo's probability approach in econometrics and R. Fisher's Statistical Methods for Research Workers brought a statistical approach to bear on the Standard Model, quietly reversing the perspective of economics and the social sciences relative to that of physics. Where physicists, and Maxwell in particular, intuited scientific method as imposing stringent demands on the quality and interrelations of data, instruments, and theory in the name of inferential and comparative stability, statistical models and methods disconnected theory from data by removing the instrument as an essential component. New possibilities for reconnecting economics and the social sciences to Maxwell's sense of the method of analogy are found in Rasch's probabilistic models for measurement.

Economic growth and CO2 emissions: an investigation with smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag models for the 1800-2014 period in the USA.

PubMed

Bildirici, Melike; Ersin, Özgür Ömer

2018-01-01

The study aims to combine the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework with smooth transition autoregressive (STAR)-type nonlinear econometric models for causal inference. Further, the proposed STAR distributed lag (STARDL) models offer new insights in terms of modeling nonlinearity in the long- and short-run relations between analyzed variables. The STARDL method allows modeling and testing nonlinearity in the short-run and long-run parameters or both in the short- and long-run relations. To this aim, the relation between CO 2 emissions and economic growth rates in the USA is investigated for the 1800-2014 period, which is one of the largest data sets available. The proposed hybrid models are the logistic, exponential, and second-order logistic smooth transition autoregressive distributed lag (LSTARDL, ESTARDL, and LSTAR2DL) models combine the STAR framework with nonlinear ARDL-type cointegration to augment the linear ARDL approach with smooth transitional nonlinearity. The proposed models provide a new approach to the relevant econometrics and environmental economics literature. Our results indicated the presence of asymmetric long-run and short-run relations between the analyzed variables that are from the GDP towards CO 2 emissions. By the use of newly proposed STARDL models, the results are in favor of important differences in terms of the response of CO 2 emissions in regimes 1 and 2 for the estimated LSTAR2DL and LSTARDL models.

Effectiveness of conservation easements in agricultural regions.

PubMed

Braza, Mark

2017-08-01

Conservation easements are a standard technique for preventing habitat loss, particularly in agricultural regions with extensive cropland cultivation, yet little is known about their effectiveness. I developed a spatial econometric approach to propensity-score matching and used the approach to estimate the amount of habitat loss prevented by a grassland conservation easement program of the U.S. federal government. I used a spatial autoregressive probit model to predict tract enrollment in the easement program as of 2001 based on tract agricultural suitability, habitat quality, and spatial interactions among neighboring tracts. Using the predicted values from the model, I matched enrolled tracts with similar unenrolled tracts to form a treatment group and a control group. To measure the program's impact on subsequent grassland loss, I estimated cropland cultivation rates for both groups in 2014 with a second spatial probit model. Between 2001 and 2014, approximately 14.9% of control tracts were cultivated and 0.3% of treated tracts were cultivated. Therefore, approximately 14.6% of the protected land would have been cultivated in the absence of the program. My results demonstrate that conservation easements can significantly reduce habitat loss in agricultural regions; however, the enrollment of tracts with low cropland suitability may constrain the amount of habitat loss they prevent. My results also show that spatial econometric models can improve the validity of control groups and thereby strengthen causal inferences about program effectiveness in situations when spatial interactions influence conservation decisions. © 2017 Society for Conservation Biology.

Quantifying the benefits to the national economy from secondary applications of NASA technology, executive summary

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The feasibility of systematically quantifying the economic benefits of secondary applications of NASA related R and D was investigated. Based upon the tools of economic theory and econometric analysis, a set of empirical methods was developed and selected applications were made to demonstrate their workability. Analyses of the technological developments related to integrated circuits, cryogenic insulation, gas turbines, and computer programs for structural analysis indicated substantial secondary benefits accruing from NASA's R and D in these areas.

Quantifying the benefits to the national economy from secondary applications of NASA technology

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1976-01-01

The feasibility of systematically quantifying the economic benefits of secondary applications of NASA related R and D is investigated. Based upon the tools of economic theory and econometric analysis, it develops a set of empirical methods and makes selected applications to demonstrate their workability. Analyses of the technological developments related to integrated circuits, cryogenic insulation, gas turbines, and computer programs for structural analysis indicated substantial secondary benefits accruing from NASA's R and D in these areas.

Bayesian Nonparametric Prediction and Statistical Inference

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-09-07

Kadane, J. (1980), "Bayesian decision theory and the sim- plification of models," in Evaluation of Econometric Models, J. Kmenta and J. Ramsey , eds...the random model and weighted least squares regression," in Evaluation of Econometric Models, ed. by J. Kmenta and J. Ramsey , Academic Press, 197-217...likelihood function. On the other hand, H. Jeffreys’s theory of hypothesis testing covers the most important situations in which the prior is not diffuse. See

A Theory of Bayesian Data Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

1989-10-10

and the sim- plification of models," in Evaluation of Econometric Models, J. Kmenta and J. 20 Ramsey , eds., Academic Press, 245-268. Edwards, W...Evaluation of Econometric Models, ed. by J. Kmenta and J. Ramsey , Academic Press, 197-217. Hill, Bruce M., (1980c), Review of Specification Searches, by E...also Hill (1970a, 1975a) for earlier thoughts the subject with regard to tests of significance, and Smith.(1986). The Baesi theory of tests of

Econometric comparisons of liquid rocket engines for dual-fuel advanced earth-to-orbit shuttles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Martin, J. A.

1978-01-01

Econometric analyses of advanced Earth-to-orbit vehicles indicate that there are economic benefits from development of new vehicles beyond the space shuttle as traffic increases. Vehicle studies indicate the advantage of the dual-fuel propulsion in single-stage vehicles. This paper shows the economic effect of incorporating dual-fuel propulsion in advanced vehicles. Several dual-fuel propulsion systems are compared to a baseline hydrogen and oxygen system.

Application of econometric and ecology analysis methods in physics software

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Han, Min Cheol; Hoff, Gabriela; Kim, Chan Hyeong; Kim, Sung Hun; Grazia Pia, Maria; Ronchieri, Elisabetta; Saracco, Paolo

2017-10-01

Some data analysis methods typically used in econometric studies and in ecology have been evaluated and applied in physics software environments. They concern the evolution of observables through objective identification of change points and trends, and measurements of inequality, diversity and evenness across a data set. Within each analysis area, various statistical tests and measures have been examined. This conference paper summarizes a brief overview of some of these methods.

Non-extensitivity vs. informative moments for financial models —A unifying framework and empirical results

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herrmann, K.

2009-11-01

Information-theoretic approaches still play a minor role in financial market analysis. Nonetheless, there have been two very similar approaches evolving during the last years, one in the so-called econophysics and the other in econometrics. Both generalize the notion of GARCH processes in an information-theoretic sense and are able to capture kurtosis better than traditional models. In this article we present both approaches in a more general framework. The latter allows the derivation of a wide range of new models. We choose a third model using an entropy measure suggested by Kapur. In an application to financial market data, we find that all considered models - with similar flexibility in terms of skewness and kurtosis - lead to very similar results.

Macro policy responses to oil booms and busts in the United Arab Emirates

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Al-Mutawa, A.K.

1991-01-01

The effects of oil shocks and macro policy changes in the United Arab Emirates are analyzed. A theoretical model is developed within the framework of the Dutch Disease literature. It contains four unique features that are applicable to the United Arab Emirates' economy. There are: (1) the presence of a large foreign labor force; (2) OPEC's oil export quotas; (3) the division of oil profits; and (4) the important role of government expenditures. The model is then used to examine the welfare effects of the above-mentioned shocks. An econometric model is then specified that conforms to the analytical model. Inmore » the econometric model the method of principal components' is applied owing to the undersized sample data. The principal components methodology is used in both the identification testing and the estimation of the structural equations. The oil and macro policy shocks are then simulated. The simulation results show that an oil-quantity boom leads to a higher welfare gain than an oil-price boom. Under certain circumstances, this finding is also confirmed by the comparative statistics that follow from the analytical model.« less

Quality competition in local hospital markets: some econometric evidence from the period 1982-1988.

PubMed

Chirikos, T N

1992-05-01

This study examines whether American hospitals continued to engage in non-price or quality competition over the recent past as health care markets underwent fundamental structural changes and the economic incentives facing hospital managers were correspondingly altered. It also investigates the degree to which such rivalrous behavior contributes to losses in economic welfare. An econometric model of quality competition is specified that tests, among other things, for the effect of spending by the hospital to enhance the quality of output on annual changes in its share of the local (inpatient) market as well as the effects of competitive conditions in the local market on the annual sum spent on quality enhancement. The model is estimated with panel data on 195 acute care hospitals in the State of Florida for the years 1982-1988. The results suggest that quality competitive behavior continued unabated over this period and that it was stimulated as much by the growth in physician supply and alternative delivery mechanisms as it was by other competing hospitals in the local market. Furthermore, the results show that quality competition yields some inefficiency or waste, but much of it also meets the test of the market.

An economic approach to abortion demand.

PubMed

Rothstein, D S

1992-01-01

"This paper uses econometric multiple regression techniques in order to analyze the socioeconomic factors affecting the demand for abortion for the year 1985. A cross-section of the 50 [U.S.] states and Washington D.C. is examined and a household choice theoretical framework is utilized. The results suggest that average price of abortion, disposable personal per capita income, percentage of single women, whether abortions are state funded, unemployment rate, divorce rate, and if the state is located in the far West, are statistically significant factors in the determination of the demand for abortion." excerpt

The Changing Balance: South and North Korean Capabilities for Long-Term Military Competition

DTIC Science & Technology

1985-12-01

econometric model. Ideally, a model should be estimated over one period and then tested over a different period. If one esti- mates and tests over the...unprecedented impending shift of political leadership from Kim II-Sung to his son, Kim Chong-Il. Section III summarizes an aggregative econometric ...model of the South Korean economy, which we have developed to test the effect on that economy of alternative South Korean military force postures and

Climate change policies and capital vintage effects: the cases of US pulp and paper, iron and steel, and ethylene.

PubMed

Ruth, Matthias; Davidsdottir, Brynhildur; Amato, Anthony

2004-03-01

Changes in material use, energy use and emissions profiles of industry are the result of complex interrelationships among a multitude of technological and economic drivers. To better understand and guide such changes requires that attention is paid to the time-varying consequences that technology and economic influences have on an industry's choice of inputs and its associated (desired and undesired) outputs. This paper lays out an approach to improving our understanding of the dynamics of large industrial systems. The approach combines engineering and econometric analysis with a detailed representation of an industry's capital stock structure. A transparent dynamic computer modeling approach is chosen to integrate information from these analyses in ways that foster participation of stakeholders from industry and government agencies in all stages of the modeling process-from problem definition and determination of system boundaries to generation of scenarios and interpretation of results. Three case studies of industrial energy use in the USA are presented-one each for the iron and steel, pulp and paper, and ethylene industry. Dynamic models of these industries are described and then used to investigate alternative carbon emissions and investment-led policies. A comparison of results clearly points towards two key issues: the need for industry specific policy approaches in order to effectively influence industrial energy use, fuel mix and carbon emissions, and the need for longer time horizons than have typically been chosen for the analysis of industrial responses to climate change policies.

Allocation of Future Federal Airport and Airway Costs.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-12-01

attributable to users are allocated among them based upon Ramsey Pricing which minimizes the distortion in aviation markets resulting from the allocation of...the years following 1992, the producers price Uindex projections made by Wharton Econometric Forecasting . Associates1 were employed. This latter set...and on econometric cost estimation techniques. These are Volumes 3 and 5 respectively. 68 A(A A11 I FSZK7_ ODi Id Lin <j< .99 C-4 x\\ M LL- < P7 Pi0

Econometrics in outcomes research: the use of instrumental variables.

PubMed

Newhouse, J P; McClellan, M

1998-01-01

We describe an econometric technique, instrumental variables, that can be useful in estimating the effectiveness of clinical treatments in situations when a controlled trial has not or cannot be done. This technique relies upon the existence of one or more variables that induce substantial variation in the treatment variable but have no direct effect on the outcome variable of interest. We illustrate the use of the technique with an application to aggressive treatment of acute myocardial infarction in the elderly.

Econometric model for age- and population-dependent radiation exposures

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sandquist, G.M.; Slaughter, D.M.; Rogers, V.C.

1991-01-01

The economic impact associated with ionizing radiation exposures in a given human population depends on numerous factors including the individual's mean economic status as a function age, the age distribution of the population, the future life expectancy at each age, and the latency period for the occurrence of radiation-induced health effects. A simple mathematical model has been developed that provides an analytical methodology for estimating the societal econometrics associated with radiation effects are to be assessed and compared for economic evaluation.

[Econometric and ethical validation of regression logistics. Reducing of the number of patients in the evaluation of mortality].

PubMed

Castiel, D; Herve, C

1992-01-01

In general, a large number of patients is needed to conclude whether the results of a therapeutic strategy are significant or not. One can lower this number with a logit. The method has been proposed in an article published recently (Cost-utility analysis of early thrombolytic therapy, Pharmaco Economics, 1992). The present article is an essay aimed at validating the method, both from the econometric and ethical points of view.

Synthesizing Econometric Evidence: The Case of Demand Elasticity Estimates.

PubMed

DeCicca, Philip; Kenkel, Don

2015-06-01

Econometric estimates of the responsiveness of health-related consumer demand to higher prices are often key ingredients for risk policy analysis. We review the potential advantages and challenges of synthesizing econometric evidence on the price-responsiveness of consumer demand. We draw on examples of research on consumer demand for health-related goods, especially cigarettes. We argue that the overarching goal of research synthesis in this context is to provide policy-relevant evidence for broad-brush conclusions. We propose three main criteria to select among research synthesis methods. We discuss how in principle and in current practice synthesis of research on the price-elasticity of smoking meets our proposed criteria. Our analysis of current practice also contributes to academic research on the specific policy question of the effectiveness of higher cigarette prices to reduce smoking. Although we point out challenges and limitations, we believe more work on research synthesis in this area will be productive and important. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Existing agricultural ecosystem in China leads to environmental pollution: an econometric approach.

PubMed

Hongdou, Lei; Shiping, Li; Hao, Li

2018-06-17

Sustainable agriculture ensures food security and prevents starvation. However, the need to meet the increasing food demands of the growing population has led to poor and unsustainable agricultural practices, which promote environmental degradation. Given the contributions of agricultural ecosystems to environmental pollution, we investigated the impact of the agricultural ecosystem on environmental pollution in China using time series data from 1960 to 2014. We employed several methods for econometric analysis including the unit root test, Johansen test of cointegration, Granger causality test, and vector error correction model. Evidence based on the long-run elasticity indicates that a 1% increase in the emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) equivalent to nitrous oxide from synthetic fertilizers will increase the emissions of CO 2 by 1.52% in the long run. Similarly, a 1% increase in the area of harvested rice paddy, cereal production, biomass of burned crop residues, and agricultural GDP will increase the carbon dioxide emissions by 0.85, 0.63, 0.37, and 0.22%, respectively. The estimated results indicate that there are long-term equilibrium relationships among the selected variables considered for the agricultural ecosystem and carbon dioxide emissions. In particular, we identified bidirectional causal associations between CO 2 emissions, biomass of burned crop residues, and cereal production. Graphical abstract ᅟ.

An evaluation of dynamic mutuality measurements and methods in cyclic time series

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xia, Xiaohua; Huang, Guitian; Duan, Na

2010-12-01

Several measurements and techniques have been developed to detect dynamic mutuality and synchronicity of time series in econometrics. This study aims to compare the performances of five methods, i.e., linear regression, dynamic correlation, Markov switching models, concordance index and recurrence quantification analysis, through numerical simulations. We evaluate the abilities of these methods to capture structure changing and cyclicity in time series and the findings of this paper would offer guidance to both academic and empirical researchers. Illustration examples are also provided to demonstrate the subtle differences of these techniques.

A fuzzy logic approach to modeling the underground economy in Taiwan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Tiffany Hui-Kuang; Wang, David Han-Min; Chen, Su-Jane

2006-04-01

The size of the ‘underground economy’ (UE) is valuable information in the formulation of macroeconomic and fiscal policy. This study applies fuzzy set theory and fuzzy logic to model Taiwan's UE over the period from 1960 to 2003. Two major factors affecting the size of the UE, the effective tax rate and the degree of government regulation, are used. The size of Taiwan's UE is scaled and compared with those of other models. Although our approach yields different estimates, similar patterns and leading are exhibited throughout the period. The advantage of applying fuzzy logic is twofold. First, it can avoid the complex calculations in conventional econometric models. Second, fuzzy rules with linguistic terms are easy for human to understand.

A structural econometric model of family valuation and choice of employer-sponsored health insurance in the United States.

PubMed

Vanness, David J

2003-09-01

This paper estimates a fully structural unitary household model of employment and health insurance decisions for dual wage-earner families with children in the United States, using data from the 1987 National Medical Expenditure Survey. Families choose hours of work and the breakdown of compensation between cash wages and health insurance benefits for each wage earner in order to maximize expected utility under uncertain need for medical care. Heterogeneous demand for the employer-sponsored health insurance is thus generated directly from variations in health status and earning potential. The paper concludes by discussing the benefits of using structural models for simulating welfare effects of insurance reform relative to the costly assumptions that must be imposed for identification. Copyright 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Potential benefits of toothpaste advertising on dental health.

PubMed

Kioulafas, K E; Athanassouli, T N; Weatherell, J A

1989-03-01

This paper considers the effect of advertising on the sales of various brands of toothpaste. It has attempted to investigate the relationship between the level of sales of a brand and those of its competitors. Econometric estimations of the demand-function for toothpaste have been made and the authors have tried to determine the interrelationships between advertisement and toothpaste sales. The findings cast doubt upon the efficiency of the present system of competitive advertisement and suggest a possible alternative approach to the marketing of toothpaste which could increase sales and, at the same time, beneficially influence dental health.

Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics.

PubMed

Zhao, Zhibiao

2011-06-01

We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise.

Billions of Dollars are Involved in Taxation of the Life Insurance Industry -- Some Corrections in the Law are Needed.

DTIC Science & Technology

1981-09-17

leading life companies, 1979 69 i A A TABLES 16 A comparative example of the reserve test Calculation 76 17 Comparative income tax burden of life...pp. 159-61. 2/J. David Cummins, An Econometric Model of the Life Insurance Sector of the U.S. Economy (Lexington, Mass.: Lexington Books, 1975), p. 57...3/Cummins, Econometric Model, p. 44. 4/Fact Book 1979, p. 32. 23 decades earlier. 1/ This decline has been attributed to two sources. First, as

IWR-MAIN Water Use Forecasting System. Version 5.1. User’s Manual and System Description

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-12-01

Crosschecks for Input Data 1-68 11-1 Organization of the IWR-MAIN System H-8 11-2 Example of Econometric Demand Model 11-9 11-3 Example of Unit Use Coefficient...Unaccounted (entry does not affect default Loss and free service calculations) Y Conservation Data City Name: Test City USA Fl-Hetp, F2-return to monu, F4...socioeconomic data. 1-11 (1) Internal Growth Models The IWR-MAIN program contains a subroutine called GROWTH which uses econometric growth models based on

Long-term US energy outlook

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Friesen, G.

Chase Econometrics summarizes the assumptions underlying long-term US energy forecasts. To illustrate the uncertainty involved in forecasting for the period to the year 2000, they compare Chase Econometrics forecasts with some recent projections prepared by the DOE Office of Policy, Planning and Analysis for the annual National Energy Policy Plan supplement. Scenario B, the mid-range reference case, is emphasized. The purpose of providing Scenario B as well as Scenarios A and C as alternate cases is to show the sensitivity of oil price projections to small swings in energy demand. 4 tables.

Cointegration as a data normalization tool for structural health monitoring applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harvey, Dustin Y.; Todd, Michael D.

2012-04-01

The structural health monitoring literature has shown an abundance of features sensitive to various types of damage in laboratory tests. However, robust feature extraction in the presence of varying operational and environmental conditions has proven to be one of the largest obstacles in the development of practical structural health monitoring systems. Cointegration, a technique adapted from the field of econometrics, has recently been introduced to the SHM field as one solution to the data normalization problem. Response measurements and feature histories often show long-run nonstationarity due to fluctuating temperature, load conditions, or other factors that leads to the occurrence of false positives. Cointegration theory allows nonstationary trends common to two or more time series to be modeled and subsequently removed. Thus, the residual retains sensitivity to damage with dependence on operational and environmental variability removed. This study further explores the use of cointegration as a data normalization tool for structural health monitoring applications.

Using directed information for influence discovery in interconnected dynamical systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rao, Arvind; Hero, Alfred O.; States, David J.; Engel, James Douglas

2008-08-01

Structure discovery in non-linear dynamical systems is an important and challenging problem that arises in various applications such as computational neuroscience, econometrics, and biological network discovery. Each of these systems have multiple interacting variables and the key problem is the inference of the underlying structure of the systems (which variables are connected to which others) based on the output observations (such as multiple time trajectories of the variables). Since such applications demand the inference of directed relationships among variables in these non-linear systems, current methods that have a linear assumption on structure or yield undirected variable dependencies are insufficient. Hence, in this work, we present a methodology for structure discovery using an information-theoretic metric called directed time information (DTI). Using both synthetic dynamical systems as well as true biological datasets (kidney development and T-cell data), we demonstrate the utility of DTI in such problems.

An econometric investigation of the sunspot number record since the year 1700 and its prediction into the 22nd century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Travaglini, Guido

2015-09-01

Solar activity, as measured by the yearly revisited time series of sunspot numbers (SSN) for the period 1700-2014 (Clette et al., 2014), undergoes in this paper a triple statistical and econometric checkup. The conclusions are that the SSN sequence: (1) is best modeled as a signal that features nonlinearity in mean and variance, long memory, mean reversion, 'threshold' symmetry, and stationarity; (2) is best described as a discrete damped harmonic oscillator which linearly approximates the flux-transport dynamo model; (3) its prediction well into the 22nd century testifies of a substantial fall of the SSN centered around the year 2030. In addition, the first and last Gleissberg cycles show almost the same peak number and height during the period considered, yet the former slightly prevails when measured by means of the estimated smoother. All of these conclusions are achieved by making use of modern tools developed in the field of Financial Econometrics and of two new proposed procedures for signal smoothing and prediction.

Spatial Analysis of China Province-level Perinatal Mortality

PubMed Central

XIANG, Kun; SONG, Deyong

2016-01-01

Background: Using spatial analysis tools to determine the spatial patterns of China province-level perinatal mortality and using spatial econometric model to examine the impacts of health care resources and different socio-economic factors on perinatal mortality. Methods: The Global Moran’s I index is used to examine whether the spatial autocorrelation exists in selected regions and Moran’s I scatter plot to examine the spatial clustering among regions. Spatial econometric models are used to investigate the spatial relationships between perinatal mortality and contributing factors. Results: The overall Moran’s I index indicates that perinatal mortality displays positive spatial autocorrelation. Moran’s I scatter plot analysis implies that there is a significant clustering of mortality in both high-rate regions and low-rate regions. The spatial econometric models analyses confirm the existence of a direct link between perinatal mortality and health care resources, socio-economic factors. Conclusions: Since a positive spatial autocorrelation has been detected in China province-level perinatal mortality, the upgrading of regional economic development and medical service level will affect the mortality not only in region itself but also its adjacent regions. PMID:27398334

A κ-generalized statistical mechanics approach to income analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Clementi, F.; Gallegati, M.; Kaniadakis, G.

2009-02-01

This paper proposes a statistical mechanics approach to the analysis of income distribution and inequality. A new distribution function, having its roots in the framework of κ-generalized statistics, is derived that is particularly suitable for describing the whole spectrum of incomes, from the low-middle income region up to the high income Pareto power-law regime. Analytical expressions for the shape, moments and some other basic statistical properties are given. Furthermore, several well-known econometric tools for measuring inequality, which all exist in a closed form, are considered. A method for parameter estimation is also discussed. The model is shown to fit remarkably well the data on personal income for the United States, and the analysis of inequality performed in terms of its parameters is revealed as very powerful.

Demand modelling of passenger air travel: An analysis and extension, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jacobson, I. D.

1978-01-01

Previous intercity travel demand models in terms of their ability to predict air travel in a useful way and the need for disaggregation in the approach to demand modelling are evaluated. The viability of incorporating non-conventional factors (i.e. non-econometric, such as time and cost) in travel demand forecasting models are determined. The investigation of existing models is carried out in order to provide insight into their strong points and shortcomings. The model is characterized as a market segmentation model. This is a consequence of the strengths of disaggregation and its natural evolution to a usable aggregate formulation. The need for this approach both pedagogically and mathematically is discussed. In addition this volume contains two appendices which should prove useful to the non-specialist in the area.

Crystal study and econometric model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1975-01-01

An econometric model was developed that can be used to predict demand and supply figures for crystals over a time horizon roughly concurrent with that of NASA's Space Shuttle Program - that is, 1975 through 1990. The model includes an equation to predict the impact on investment in the crystal-growing industry. Actually, two models are presented. The first is a theoretical model which follows rather strictly the standard theoretical economic concepts involved in supply and demand analysis, and a modified version of the model was developed which, though not quite as theoretically sound, was testable utilizing existing data sources.

Day of the week effect in paper submission/acceptance/rejection to/in/by peer review journals. II. An ARCH econometric-like modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ausloos, Marcel; Nedic, Olgica; Dekanski, Aleksandar; Mrowinski, Maciej J.; Fronczak, Piotr; Fronczak, Agata

2017-02-01

This paper aims at providing a statistical model for the preferred behavior of authors submitting a paper to a scientific journal. The electronic submission of (about 600) papers to the Journal of the Serbian Chemical Society has been recorded for every day from Jan. 01, 2013 till Dec. 31, 2014, together with the acceptance or rejection paper fate. Seasonal effects and editor roles (through desk rejection and subfield editors) are examined. An ARCH-like econometric model is derived stressing the main determinants of the favorite day-of-week process.

The Science of Science Policy: A Federal Research Roadmap

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-11-01

and Atmospheric Administra on, h p://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/ oa /climate/globalwarming.html#q4. T S S P : A F R R4 maintain the na on’s dominance...econometric studies, surveys, case studies, and retrospec ve analyses. Econometric studies include the macroeconomic growth models pioneered by Robert...R A W ha t a re th e be ha vi or al fo un da o ns o f i nn ov a- o n? U nd er st an di ng th e be ha vi or o f i nd iv id ua ls an d

Handling preference heterogeneity for river services' adaptation to climate change.

PubMed

Andreopoulos, Dimitrios; Damigos, Dimitrios; Comiti, Francesco; Fischer, Christian

2015-09-01

Climate projection models for the Southern Mediterranean basin indicate a strong drought trend. This pattern is anticipated to affect a range of services derived from river ecosystems and consecutively deteriorate the sectoral outputs and household welfare. This paper aims to evaluate local residents' adaptation preferences for the Piave River basin in Italy. A Discrete Choice Experiment accounting for adaptation scenarios of the Piave River services was conducted and the collected data were econometrically analyzed using Random Parameters Logit, Latent Class and Covariance Heterogeneity models. In terms of policy-relevant outcomes, the analysis indicates that respondents are willing to pay for adaptation plans. This attitude is reflected on the compensating surplus to sustain the current state of the Piave, which corresponds to a monthly contribution of 80€ per household. From an econometric point of view, the results show that it is not sufficient to take solely into account general heterogeneity, provided that distinct treatment of the heterogeneity produces rather different welfare estimates. This implies that analysts should examine a set of criteria when deciding on how to better approach heterogeneity for each empirical data set. Overall, non-market values of environmental services should be considered when formulating cost-effective adaptation measures for river systems undergoing climate change effects and appropriate heterogeneity approximation could render these values unbiased and accurate. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adapting the Biome-BGC Model to New Zealand Pastoral Agriculture: Climate Change and Land-Use Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keller, E. D.; Baisden, W. T.; Timar, L.

2011-12-01

We have adapted the Biome-BGC model to make climate change and land-use scenario estimates of New Zealand's pasture production in 2020 and 2050, with comparison to a 2005 baseline. We take an integrated modelling approach with the aim of enabling the model's use for policy assessments across broadly related issues such as climate change mitigation and adaptation, land-use change, and greenhouse gas projections. The Biome-BGC model is a biogeochemical model that simulates carbon, water, and nitrogen cycles in terrestrial ecosystems. We introduce two new 'ecosystems', sheep/beef and dairy pasture, within the existing structure of the Biome-BGC model and calibrate its ecophysiological parameters against pasture clipping data from diverse sites around New Zealand to form a baseline estimate of total New Zealand pasture production. Using downscaled AR4 climate projections, we construct mid- and upper-range climate change scenarios in 2020 and 2050. We produce land-use change scenarios in the same years by combining the Biome-BGC model with the Land Use in Rural New Zealand (LURNZ) model. The LURNZ model uses econometric approaches to predict future land-use change driven by changes in net profits driven by expected pricing, including the introduction of an emission trading system. We estimate the relative change in national pasture production from our 2005 baseline levels for both sheep/beef and dairy systems under each scenario.

Nonparametric model validations for hidden Markov models with applications in financial econometrics

PubMed Central

Zhao, Zhibiao

2011-01-01

We address the nonparametric model validation problem for hidden Markov models with partially observable variables and hidden states. We achieve this goal by constructing a nonparametric simultaneous confidence envelope for transition density function of the observable variables and checking whether the parametric density estimate is contained within such an envelope. Our specification test procedure is motivated by a functional connection between the transition density of the observable variables and the Markov transition kernel of the hidden states. Our approach is applicable for continuous time diffusion models, stochastic volatility models, nonlinear time series models, and models with market microstructure noise. PMID:21750601

Granger Causality and Transfer Entropy Are Equivalent for Gaussian Variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, Lionel; Barrett, Adam B.; Seth, Anil K.

2009-12-01

Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. Developed originally in the field of econometrics, it has since found application in a broader arena, particularly in neuroscience. More recently transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer between jointly dependent processes, has gained traction in a similarly wide field. While it has been recognized that the two concepts must be related, the exact relationship has until now not been formally described. Here we show that for Gaussian variables, Granger causality and transfer entropy are entirely equivalent, thus bridging autoregressive and information-theoretic approaches to data-driven causal inference.

Climate change and economic growth: a heterogeneous panel data approach.

PubMed

Sequeira, Tiago Neves; Santos, Marcelo Serra; Magalhães, Manuela

2018-05-31

Climate change is a global phenomenon. Its impact on economic growth must therefore be analyzed in accordance with its (time-varying) common effects. We present an econometric analysis that evaluates this effect taking into account its global nature. Contrary to previous evidence that ignores the global effects, we obtain that the rising temperature has not decreased growth in real GDP per capita in the second half of the twentieth century for the world countries. However, we obtain a negative effect of rising temperatures and a positive effect of rising precipitation in poor countries. This positive effect of rising precipitation is also confirmed for hot and temperate countries.

Out of sight but not out of mind: Home countries' macroeconomic volatilities and immigrants' mental health.

PubMed

Nguyen, Ha Trong; Connelly, Luke Brian

2018-01-01

We provide the first empirical evidence that better economic performances by immigrants' countries of origin, as measured by lower consumer price index (CPI) or higher gross domestic product, improve immigrants' mental health. We use an econometrically-robust approach that exploits exogenous changes in macroeconomic conditions across immigrants' home countries over time and controls for immigrants' observable and unobservable characteristics. The CPI effect is statistically significant and sizeable. Furthermore, the CPI effect diminishes as the time since emigrating increases. By contrast, home countries' unemployment rates and exchange rate fluctuations have no impact on immigrants' mental health. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Financial Constrains for Innovative Firms: The Role of Size, Industry and ICT Uses as Determinants of Firms' Financial Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo-Merino, David; Vilaseca-Requena, Jordi; Plana-Erta, Dolors

This paper uses a large and original data set of Catalan firms in all the economic branches to analyse the effects of size, industry and degree of ICT uses on financial constraints for innovative firms. We have conducted a micro econometric analysis following Henry et al. (1999) investment model to empirically contrast the relationship between firms' investment spread over time and their financial structure, and we have used von Kalckreuth (2004) methodology, based on an original survey with data on financial issues. Our results show that it exits a positive and significant relationship between investment shift and financial structure, emerging financial constraints for more innovative firms. Furthermore, these constraints are higher for micro companies and firms within the knowledge-advanced services' industry. Finally, we have also found that advanced ICT uses by more innovative firms allow them to reduce constraints of access to sources of finance.

Ratio-based estimators for a change point in persistence.

PubMed

Halunga, Andreea G; Osborn, Denise R

2012-11-01

We study estimation of the date of change in persistence, from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text] or vice versa. Contrary to statements in the original papers, our analytical results establish that the ratio-based break point estimators of Kim [Kim, J.Y., 2000. Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series. Journal of Econometrics 95, 97-116], Kim et al. [Kim, J.Y., Belaire-Franch, J., Badillo Amador, R., 2002. Corringendum to "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series". Journal of Econometrics 109, 389-392] and Busetti and Taylor [Busetti, F., Taylor, A.M.R., 2004. Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 123, 33-66] are inconsistent when a mean (or other deterministic component) is estimated for the process. In such cases, the estimators converge to random variables with upper bound given by the true break date when persistence changes from [Formula: see text] to [Formula: see text]. A Monte Carlo study confirms the large sample downward bias and also finds substantial biases in moderate sized samples, partly due to properties at the end points of the search interval.

Using Count Data and Ordered Models in National Forest Recreation Demand Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simões, Paula; Barata, Eduardo; Cruz, Luis

2013-11-01

This research addresses the need to improve our knowledge on the demand for national forests for recreation and offers an in-depth data analysis supported by the complementary use of count data and ordered models. From a policy-making perspective, while count data models enable the estimation of monetary welfare measures, ordered models allow for the wider use of the database and provide a more flexible analysis of data. The main purpose of this article is to analyse the individual forest recreation demand and to derive a measure of its current use value. To allow a more complete analysis of the forest recreation demand structure the econometric approach supplements the use of count data models with ordered category models using data obtained by means of an on-site survey in the Bussaco National Forest (Portugal). Overall, both models reveal that travel cost and substitute prices are important explanatory variables, visits are a normal good and demographic variables seem to have no influence on demand. In particular, estimated price and income elasticities of demand are quite low. Accordingly, it is possible to argue that travel cost (price) in isolation may be expected to have a low impact on visitation levels.

Multi-Agent Market Modeling of Foreign Exchange Rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zimmermann, Georg; Neuneier, Ralph; Grothmann, Ralph

A market mechanism is basically driven by a superposition of decisions of many agents optimizing their profit. The oeconomic price dynamic is a consequence of the cumulated excess demand/supply created on this micro level. The behavior analysis of a small number of agents is well understood through the game theory. In case of a large number of agents one may use the limiting case that an individual agent does not have an influence on the market, which allows the aggregation of agents by statistic methods. In contrast to this restriction, we can omit the assumption of an atomic market structure, if we model the market through a multi-agent approach. The contribution of the mathematical theory of neural networks to the market price formation is mostly seen on the econometric side: neural networks allow the fitting of high dimensional nonlinear dynamic models. Furthermore, in our opinion, there is a close relationship between economics and the modeling ability of neural networks because a neuron can be interpreted as a simple model of decision making. With this in mind, a neural network models the interaction of many decisions and, hence, can be interpreted as the price formation mechanism of a market.

Soil Moisture as an Estimator for Crop Yield in Germany

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peichl, Michael; Meyer, Volker; Samaniego, Luis; Thober, Stephan

2015-04-01

Annual crop yield depends on various factors such as soil properties, management decisions, and meteorological conditions. Unfavorable weather conditions, e.g. droughts, have the potential to drastically diminish crop yield in rain-fed agriculture. For example, the drought in 2003 caused direct losses of 1.5 billion EUR only in Germany. Predicting crop yields allows to mitigate negative effects of weather extremes which are assumed to occur more often in the future due to climate change. A standard approach in economics is to predict the impact of climate change on agriculture as a function of temperature and precipitation. This approach has been developed further using concepts like growing degree days. Other econometric models use nonlinear functions of heat or vapor pressure deficit. However, none of these approaches uses soil moisture to predict crop yield. We hypothesize that soil moisture is a better indicator to explain stress on plant growth than estimations based on precipitation and temperature. This is the case because the latter variables do not explicitly account for the available water content in the root zone, which is the primary source of water supply for plant growth. In this study, a reduced form panel approach is applied to estimate a multivariate econometric production function for the years 1999 to 2010. Annual crop yield data of various crops on the administrative district level serve as depending variables. The explanatory variable of major interest is the Soil Moisture Index (SMI), which quantifies anomalies in root zone soil moisture. The SMI is computed by the mesoscale Hydrological Model (mHM, www.ufz.de/mhm). The index represents the monthly soil water quantile at a 4 km2 grid resolution covering entire Germany. A reduced model approach is suitable because the SMI is the result of a stochastic weather process and therefore can be considered exogenous. For the ease of interpretation a linear functionality is preferred. Meteorological, phenological, geological, agronomic, and socio-economic variables are also considered to extend the model in order to reveal the proper causal relation. First results show that dry as well as wet extremes of SMI have a negative impact on crop yield for winter wheat. This indicates that soil moisture has at least a limiting affect on crop production.

Testing simulation and structural models with applications to energy demand

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wolff, Hendrik

2007-12-01

This dissertation deals with energy demand and consists of two parts. Part one proposes a unified econometric framework for modeling energy demand and examples illustrate the benefits of the technique by estimating the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital. Part two assesses the energy conservation policy of Daylight Saving Time and empirically tests the performance of electricity simulation. In particular, the chapter "Imposing Monotonicity and Curvature on Flexible Functional Forms" proposes an estimator for inference using structural models derived from economic theory. This is motivated by the fact that in many areas of economic analysis theory restricts the shape as well as other characteristics of functions used to represent economic constructs. Specific contributions are (a) to increase the computational speed and tractability of imposing regularity conditions, (b) to provide regularity preserving point estimates, (c) to avoid biases existent in previous applications, and (d) to illustrate the benefits of our approach via numerical simulation results. The chapter "Can We Close the Gap between the Empirical Model and Economic Theory" discusses the more fundamental question of whether the imposition of a particular theory to a dataset is justified. I propose a hypothesis test to examine whether the estimated empirical model is consistent with the assumed economic theory. Although the proposed methodology could be applied to a wide set of economic models, this is particularly relevant for estimating policy parameters that affect energy markets. This is demonstrated by estimating the Slutsky matrix and the elasticity of substitution between energy and capital, which are crucial parameters used in computable general equilibrium models analyzing energy demand and the impacts of environmental regulations. Using the Berndt and Wood dataset, I find that capital and energy are complements and that the data are significantly consistent with duality theory. Both results would not necessarily be achieved using standard econometric methods. The final chapter "Daylight Time and Energy" uses a quasi-experiment to evaluate a popular energy conservation policy: we challenge the conventional wisdom that extending Daylight Saving Time (DST) reduces energy demand. Using detailed panel data on half-hourly electricity consumption, prices, and weather conditions from four Australian states we employ a novel 'triple-difference' technique to test the electricity-saving hypothesis. We show that the extension failed to reduce electricity demand and instead increased electricity prices. We also apply the most sophisticated electricity simulation model available in the literature to the Australian data. We find that prior simulation models significantly overstate electricity savings. Our results suggest that extending DST will fail as an instrument to save energy resources.

An econometric simulation model of income and electricity demand in Alaska's Railbelt, 1982-2022

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Maddigan, R.J.; Hill, L.J.; Hamblin, D.M.

1987-01-01

This report describes the specification of-and forecasts derived from-the Alaska Railbelt Electricity Load, Macroeconomic (ARELM) model. ARELM was developed as an independent, modeling tool for the evaluation of the need for power from the Susitna Hydroelectric Project which has been proposed by the Alaska Power Authority. ARELM is an econometric simulation model consisting of 61 equations - 46 behavioral equations and 15 identities. The system includes two components: (1) ARELM-MACRO which is a system of equations that simulates the performance of both the total Alaskan and Railbelt macroeconomies and (2) ARELM-LOAD which projects electricity-related activity in the Alaskan Railbelt region.more » The modeling system is block recursive in the sense that forecasts of population, personal income, and employment in the Railbelt derived from ARELM-MACRO are used as explanatory variables in ARELM-LOAD to simulate electricity demand, the real average price of electricity, and the number of customers in the Railbelt. Three scenarios based on assumptions about the future price of crude oil are simulated and documented in the report. The simulations, which do not include the cost-of-power impacts of Susitna-based generation, show that the growth rate in Railbelt electricity load is between 2.5 and 2.7% over the 1982 to 2022 forecast period. The forecasting results are consistent with other projections of load growth in the region using different modeling approaches.« less

Airfreight forecasting methodology and results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1978-01-01

A series of econometric behavioral equations was developed to explain and forecast the evolution of airfreight traffic demand for the total U.S. domestic airfreight system, the total U.S. international airfreight system, and the total scheduled international cargo traffic carried by the top 44 foreign airlines. The basic explanatory variables used in these macromodels were the real gross national products of the countries involved and a measure of relative transportation costs. The results of the econometric analysis reveal that the models explain more than 99 percent of the historical evolution of freight traffic. The long term traffic forecasts generated with these models are based on scenarios of the likely economic outlook in the United States and 31 major foreign countries.

The effect of relationship status on health with dynamic health and persistent relationships.

PubMed

Kohn, Jennifer L; Averett, Susan L

2014-07-01

The dynamic evolution of health and persistent relationship status pose econometric challenges to disentangling the causal effect of relationships on health from the selection effect of health on relationship choice. Using a new econometric strategy we find that marriage is not universally better for health. Rather, cohabitation benefits the health of men and women over 45, being never married is no worse for health, and only divorce marginally harms the health of younger men. We find strong evidence that unobservable health-related factors can confound estimates. Our method can be applied to other research questions with dynamic dependent and multivariate endogenous variables. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Irrigation water demand: A meta-analysis of price elasticities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scheierling, Susanne M.; Loomis, John B.; Young, Robert A.

2006-01-01

Metaregression models are estimated to investigate sources of variation in empirical estimates of the price elasticity of irrigation water demand. Elasticity estimates are drawn from 24 studies reported in the United States since 1963, including mathematical programming, field experiments, and econometric studies. The mean price elasticity is 0.48. Long-run elasticities, those that are most useful for policy purposes, are likely larger than the mean estimate. Empirical results suggest that estimates may be more elastic if they are derived from mathematical programming or econometric studies and calculated at a higher irrigation water price. Less elastic estimates are found to be derived from models based on field experiments and in the presence of high-valued crops.

The Pot Calling the Kettle Black? A Comparison of Measures of Current Tobacco Use

PubMed Central

ROSENMAN, ROBERT

2014-01-01

Researchers often use the discrepancy between self-reported and biochemically assessed active smoking status to argue that self-reported smoking status is not reliable, ignoring the limitations of biochemically assessed measures and treating it as the gold standard in their comparisons. Here, we employ econometric techniques to compare the accuracy of self-reported and biochemically assessed current tobacco use, taking into account measurement errors with both methods. Our approach allows estimating and comparing the sensitivity and specificity of each measure without directly observing true smoking status. The results, robust to several alternative specifications, suggest that there is no clear reason to think that one measure dominates the other in accuracy. PMID:25587199

Investigation on Law and Economics Based on Complex Network and Time Series Analysis.

PubMed

Yang, Jian; Qu, Zhao; Chang, Hui

2015-01-01

The research focuses on the cooperative relationship and the strategy tendency among three mutually interactive parties in financing: small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. Complex network theory and time series analysis were applied to figure out the quantitative evidence. Moreover, this paper built up a fundamental model describing the particular interaction among them through evolutionary game. Combining the results of data analysis and current situation, it is justifiable to put forward reasonable legislative recommendations for regulations on lending activities among small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. The approach in this research provides a framework for constructing mathematical models and applying econometrics and evolutionary game in the issue of corporation financing.

Price impact on urban residential water demand: A dynamic panel data approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

ArbuéS, Fernando; BarberáN, Ramón; Villanúa, Inmaculada

2004-11-01

In this paper, we formulate and estimate a model of residential water demand with the aim of evaluating the potential of pricing policies as a mechanism for managing residential water. The proposed econometric model offers a new perspective on urban water demand analysis by combining microlevel data with a dynamic panel data estimation procedure. The empirical application suggests that residential users are more responsive to a lagged average price specification. Another result of the estimated model is that price is a moderately effective tool in reducing residential water demand within the present range of prices, with the estimated values for income elasticity and "elasticity of consumption with respect to family size" reinforcing this conclusion.

Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions.

PubMed

Zhao, Xiaobing; Du, Ding

2015-09-01

This study extends the literature on forecasting carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by applying the reduced-form econometrics approach of Schmalensee et al. (1998) to a more recent sample period, the post-1997 period. Using the post-1997 period is motivated by the observation that the strengthening pace of global climate policy may have been accelerated since 1997. Based on our parameter estimates, we project 25% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 according to an economic and population growth scenario that is more consistent with recent global trends. Our forecasts are conservative due to that we do not have sufficient data to fully take into account recent developments in the global economy. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Municipal water consumption forecast accuracy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fullerton, Thomas M.; Molina, Angel L.

2010-06-01

Municipal water consumption planning is an active area of research because of infrastructure construction and maintenance costs, supply constraints, and water quality assurance. In spite of that, relatively few water forecast accuracy assessments have been completed to date, although some internal documentation may exist as part of the proprietary "grey literature." This study utilizes a data set of previously published municipal consumption forecasts to partially fill that gap in the empirical water economics literature. Previously published municipal water econometric forecasts for three public utilities are examined for predictive accuracy against two random walk benchmarks commonly used in regional analyses. Descriptive metrics used to quantify forecast accuracy include root-mean-square error and Theil inequality statistics. Formal statistical assessments are completed using four-pronged error differential regression F tests. Similar to studies for other metropolitan econometric forecasts in areas with similar demographic and labor market characteristics, model predictive performances for the municipal water aggregates in this effort are mixed for each of the municipalities included in the sample. Given the competitiveness of the benchmarks, analysts should employ care when utilizing econometric forecasts of municipal water consumption for planning purposes, comparing them to recent historical observations and trends to insure reliability. Comparative results using data from other markets, including regions facing differing labor and demographic conditions, would also be helpful.

Essays on the Determinants of Energy Related CO2 Emissions =

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moutinho, Victor Manuel Ferreira

Overall, amongst the most mentioned factors for Greenhouse Gases (GHG) growth are the economic growth and the energy demand growth. To assess the determinants GHG emissions, this thesis proposed and developed a new analysis which links the emissions intensity to its main driving factors. In the first essay, we used the 'complete decomposition' technique to examine CO2 emissions intensity and its components, considering 36 economic sectors and the 1996-2009 periods in Portugal. The industry (in particular 5 industrial sectors) is contributing largely to the effects of variation of CO2 emissions intensity. We concluded, among others, the emissions intensity reacts more significantly to shocks in the weight of fossil fuels in total energy consumption compared to shocks in other variables. In the second essay, we conducted an analysis for 16 industrial sectors (Group A) and for the group of the 5 most polluting manufacturing sectors (Group B) based on the convergence examination for emissions intensity and its main drivers, as well as on an econometric analysis. We concluded that there is sigma convergence for all the effects with exception to the fossil fuel intensity, while gamma convergence was verified for all the effects, with exception of CO2 emissions by fossil fuel and fossil fuel intensity in Group B. From the econometric approach we concluded that the considered variables have a significant importance in explaining CO2 emissions and CO2 emissions intensity. In the third essay, the Tourism Industry in Portugal over 1996-2009 period was examined, specifically two groups of subsectors that affect the impacts on CO2 emissions intensity. The generalized variance decomposition and the impulse response functions pointed to sectors that affect tourism more directly, i. e. a bidirectional causality between the intensity of emissions and energy intensity. The effect of intensity of emissions is positive on energy intensity, and the effect of energy intensity on emissions intensity is negative. The percentage of fossil fuels used reacts positively to the economic structure and to carbon intensity, i. e., the more the economic importance of the sector, the more it uses fossil fuels, and when it raises its carbon intensity, in the future the use of fossil fuel may rise. On the other hand, positive shocks on energy intensity tend to reduce the percentage of fossil fuels used. In fourth essay, we conducted an analysis to identify the effects that contribute to the intensity of GHG emissions (EI) in agriculture as well as their development. With that aim, we used the 'complete decomposition' technique in the 1995-2008 periods, for a set of European countries. It is shown that the use of Nitrogen per cultivated area is an important factor of emissions and in those countries where labour productivity increases (the inverse of average labour productivity in agriculture decreases), emissions intensity tends to decrease. These results imply that the way to reduce emissions in agriculture would be to provide better training of agricultural workers to increase their productivity, which would lead to a less need for energy and use of Nitrogen. The purpose of the last essay is to examine the long and short-run causality of the share of renewable sources on the environmental relation CO2 per KWh electricity generation- real GDP for 20 European countries over the 2001-2010 periods. It is important to analyze how the percentage of renewable energy used for electricity production affects the relationship between economic growth and emissions from this sector. The study of these relationships is important from the point of view of environmental and energy policy as it gives us information on the costs in terms of economic growth, on the application of restrictive levels of emissions and also on the effects of the policies concerning the use of renewable energy in the electricity sector (see for instance European Commission Directive 2001/77/EC, [4]). For that purpose, in this study we use Cointegration Analysis on the set of cross-country panel data between CO2 emissions from electricity generation (CO2 kWh), economic growth (GDP) and the share of renewable energy for 20 European countries. We estimated the long-run equilibrium to validate the EKC with a new approach specification. Additionally, we have implemented the Innovative Accounting Approach (IAA) that includes Forecast Error Variance Decomposition and Impulse Response Functions (IRFs), applied to those variables. This can allow us, for example, to know (i) how CO2 kWh responds to an impulse in GDP and (ii) how CO2 kWh responds to an impulse in the share of renewable sources. The contributions of this thesis to the energy-related CO2 emissions at sectorial level are threefold: First, it provides a new econometric decomposition approach for analysing and developing CO2 emissions in collaboration with science societies that can serve as a starting point for future research approaches. Second, it presents a hybrid energy-economy mathematic and econometric model which relates CO2 emissions in Portugal based on economic theory. Third, it contributes to explain the change of CO2 emissions in important economic sectors in Europe, in particular in Portugal, taking normative considerations into account more openly and explicitly, with political implications at energy-environment level within the European commitment. None

Multivariate non-normally distributed random variables in climate research - introduction to the copula approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Schölzel, C.; Friederichs, P.

2008-10-01

Probability distributions of multivariate random variables are generally more complex compared to their univariate counterparts which is due to a possible nonlinear dependence between the random variables. One approach to this problem is the use of copulas, which have become popular over recent years, especially in fields like econometrics, finance, risk management, or insurance. Since this newly emerging field includes various practices, a controversial discussion, and vast field of literature, it is difficult to get an overview. The aim of this paper is therefore to provide an brief overview of copulas for application in meteorology and climate research. We examine the advantages and disadvantages compared to alternative approaches like e.g. mixture models, summarize the current problem of goodness-of-fit (GOF) tests for copulas, and discuss the connection with multivariate extremes. An application to station data shows the simplicity and the capabilities as well as the limitations of this approach. Observations of daily precipitation and temperature are fitted to a bivariate model and demonstrate, that copulas are valuable complement to the commonly used methods.

A Systematic Comprehensive Computational Model for Stake Estimation in Mission Assurance: Applying Cyber Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Mission Assurance Analysis Protocol (MAAP)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abercrombie, Robert K; Sheldon, Frederick T; Grimaila, Michael R

2010-01-01

In earlier works, we presented a computational infrastructure that allows an analyst to estimate the security of a system in terms of the loss that each stakeholder stands to sustain as a result of security breakdowns. In this paper, we discuss how this infrastructure can be used in the subject domain of mission assurance as defined as the full life-cycle engineering process to identify and mitigate design, production, test, and field support deficiencies of mission success. We address the opportunity to apply the Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) to Carnegie Mellon University and Software Engineering Institute s Mission Assurance Analysismore » Protocol (MAAP) in this context.« less

Identifying economics' place amongst academic disciplines: a science or a social science?

PubMed

Hudson, John

2017-01-01

Different academic disciplines exhibit different styles, including styles in journal titles. Using data from the 2014 Research Excellence Framework (REF) in the UK we are able to identify the stylistic trends of different disciplines using 155,552 journal titles across all disciplines. Cluster analysis is then used to group the different disciplines together. The resulting identification fits the social sciences, the sciences and the arts and humanities reasonably well. Economics overall, fits best with philosophy, but the linkage is weak. When we divided economics into papers published in theory, econometrics and the remaining journals, the first two link with mathematics and computer science, particularly econometrics, and thence the sciences. The rest of economics then links with business and thence the social sciences.

Residential demand for energy. Volume 1: Residential energy demand in the US

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taylor, L. D.; Blattenberger, G. R.; Rennhack, R. K.

1982-04-01

Updated and improved versions of the residential energy demand models that are currently used in EPRI's Demand 80/81 Model are presented. The primary objective of the study is the development and estimation of econometric demand models that take into account in a theoretically appropriate way the problems caused by decreasing-block pricing in the sale of electricity and natural gas. An ancillary objective is to take into account the impact on electricity, natural gas, and fuel oil demands of differences and changes in the availability of natural gas. Econometric models of residential demand are estimated for all three fuel tyes using time series data by state. Price and income elasticities for a number of alternative models are presented.

Econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. Volume III. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Berndt, E.R.; Fraumeni, B.M.; Hudson, E.A.

1981-03-01

This report presents the econometrics and data of the 9 sector Dynamic General Equilibrium Model. There are two key components of 9DGEM - the model of household behavior and the model of produconcrneer behavior. The household model is concerned with decisions on consumption, saving, labor supply and the composition of consumption. The producer model is concerned with output price formation and determination of input patterns and purchases for each of the nine producing sectors. These components form the behavioral basis of DGEM. The remaining components are concerned with constraints, balance conditions, accounting, and government revenues and expenditures (these elements aremore » developed in the report on the model specification).« less

A national econometric forecasting model of the dental sector.

PubMed Central

Feldstein, P J; Roehrig, C S

1980-01-01

The Econometric Model of the the Dental Sector forecasts a broad range of dental sector variables, including dental care prices; the amount of care produced and consumed; employment of hygienists, dental assistants, and clericals; hours worked by dentists; dental incomes; and number of dentists. These forecasts are based upon values specified by the user for the various factors which help determine the supply an demand for dental care, such as the size of the population, per capita income, the proportion of the population covered by private dental insurance, the cost of hiring clericals and dental assistants, and relevant government policies. In a test of its reliability, the model forecast dental sector behavior quite accurately for the period 1971 through 1977. PMID:7461974

Wheat yield dynamics: a structural econometric analysis.

PubMed

Sahin, Afsin; Akdi, Yilmaz; Arslan, Fahrettin

2007-10-15

In this study we initially have tried to explore the wheat situation in Turkey, which has a small-open economy and in the member countries of European Union (EU). We have observed that increasing the wheat yield is fundamental to obtain comparative advantage among countries by depressing domestic prices. Also the changing structure of supporting schemes in Turkey makes it necessary to increase its wheat yield level. For this purpose, we have used available data to determine the dynamics of wheat yield by Ordinary Least Square Regression methods. In order to find out whether there is a linear relationship among these series we have checked each series whether they are integrated at the same order or not. Consequently, we have pointed out that fertilizer usage and precipitation level are substantial inputs for producing high wheat yield. Furthermore, in respect for our model, fertilizer usage affects wheat yield more than precipitation level.

'Mommy, I miss daddy'. The effect of family structure on children's health in Brazil.

PubMed

Ayllón, Sara; Ferreira-Batista, Natalia N

2015-12-01

This paper studies the relationship between single motherhood and children's height-for-age z-scores in Brazil. In order to isolate the causal effect between family structure and children's condition, we estimate an econometric model that uses male preference for firstborn sons and local sex ratios to instrument the probability of a woman becoming a single mother. Our results have a local average treatment effect interpretation (LATE). We find that children being raised by a single mother (whose marital status is affected by a firstborn girl and a low sex ratio) have a height-for-age z-score that is lower than that of children of similar characteristics that cohabit with both progenitors. We claim that the increasing trend of single motherhood in Brazil should be of concern in health policy design. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Longitudinal Predictors of Institutionalization in Old Age.

PubMed

Hajek, André; Brettschneider, Christian; Lange, Carolin; Posselt, Tina; Wiese, Birgitt; Steinmann, Susanne; Weyerer, Siegfried; Werle, Jochen; Pentzek, Michael; Fuchs, Angela; Stein, Janine; Luck, Tobias; Bickel, Horst; Mösch, Edelgard; Wagner, Michael; Jessen, Frank; Maier, Wolfgang; Scherer, Martin; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G; König, Hans-Helmut

2015-01-01

To investigate time-dependent predictors of institutionalization in old age using a longitudinal approach. In a representative survey of the German general population aged 75 years and older predictors of institutionalization were observed every 1.5 years over six waves. Conditional fixed-effects logistic regressions (with 201 individuals and 960 observations) were performed to estimate the effects of marital status, depression, dementia, and physical impairments (mobility, hearing and visual impairments) on the risk of admission to old-age home or nursing home. By exploiting the longitudinal data structure using panel econometric models, we were able to control for unobserved heterogeneity such as genetic predisposition and personality traits. The probability of institutionalization increased significantly with occurrence of widowhood, depression, dementia, as well as walking and hearing impairments. In particular, the occurrence of widowhood (OR = 78.3), dementia (OR = 154.1) and substantial mobility impairment (OR = 36.7) were strongly associated with institutionalization. Findings underline the strong influence of loss of spouse as well as dementia on institutionalization. This is relevant as the number of old people (a) living alone and (b) suffering from dementia is expected to increase rapidly in the next decades. Consequently, it is supposed that the demand for institutionalization among the elderly will increase considerably. Practitioners as well as policy makers should be aware of these upcoming challenges.

Investigation on Law and Economics Based on Complex Network and Time Series Analysis

PubMed Central

Yang, Jian; Qu, Zhao; Chang, Hui

2015-01-01

The research focuses on the cooperative relationship and the strategy tendency among three mutually interactive parties in financing: small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. Complex network theory and time series analysis were applied to figure out the quantitative evidence. Moreover, this paper built up a fundamental model describing the particular interaction among them through evolutionary game. Combining the results of data analysis and current situation, it is justifiable to put forward reasonable legislative recommendations for regulations on lending activities among small enterprises, commercial banks and micro-credit companies. The approach in this research provides a framework for constructing mathematical models and applying econometrics and evolutionary game in the issue of corporation financing. PMID:26076460

Introduction of a new laboratory test: an econometric approach with the use of neural network analysis.

PubMed

Jabor, A; Vlk, T; Boril, P

1996-04-15

We designed a simulation model for the assessment of the financial risks involved when a new diagnostic test is introduced in the laboratory. The model is based on a neural network consisting of ten neurons and assumes that input entities can have assigned appropriate uncertainty. Simulations are done on a 1-day interval basis. Risk analysis completes the model and the financial effects are evaluated for a selected time period. The basic output of the simulation consists of total expenses and income during the simulation time, net present value of the project at the end of simulation, total number of control samples during simulation, total number of patients evaluated and total number of used kits.

The Cost of Smoking in California.

PubMed

Max, Wendy; Sung, Hai-Yen; Shi, Yanling; Stark, Brad

2016-05-01

The economic impact of smoking, including healthcare costs and the value of lost productivity due to illness and mortality, was estimated for California for 2009. Smoking-attributable healthcare costs were estimated using a series of econometric models that estimate expenditures for hospital care, ambulatory care, prescriptions, home health care, and nursing home care. Lost productivity due to illness was estimated using an econometric model predicting how smoking status affects the number of days lost from work or other activities. The value of lives lost from premature mortality due to smoking was estimated using an epidemiological approach. Almost 4 million Californians still smoke, including 146 000 adolescents. The cost of smoking in 2009 totaled $18.1 billion, including $9.8 billion in healthcare costs, $1.4 billion in lost productivity from illness, and $6.8 billion in lost productivity from premature mortality. This amounts to $487 per California resident and $4603 per smoker. Costs were greater for men than for women. Hospital costs comprised 44% of healthcare costs. Despite extensive efforts at tobacco control in California, healthcare and lost productivity costs attributable to smoking remain high. Compared to costs for 1999, the total cost was 15% greater in 2009. However, after adjusting for inflation, real costs have fallen by 13% over the past decade, indicating that efforts have been successful in reducing the economic burden of smoking in the state. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An Ecology of Prestige in New York City: Examining the Relationships Among Population Density, Socio-economic Status, Group Identity, and Residential Canopy Cover

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grove, J. Morgan; Locke, Dexter H.; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P. M.

2014-09-01

Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.

An ecology of prestige in New York City: examining the relationships among population density, socio-economic status, group identity, and residential canopy cover.

PubMed

Grove, J Morgan; Locke, Dexter H; O'Neil-Dunne, Jarlath P M

2014-09-01

Several social theories have been proposed to explain the uneven distribution of vegetation in urban residential areas: population density, social stratification, luxury effect, and ecology of prestige. We evaluate these theories using a combination of demographic and socio-economic predictors of vegetative cover on all residential lands in New York City. We use diverse data sources including the City's property database, time-series demographic and socio-economic data from the US Census, and land cover data from the University of Vermont's Spatial Analysis Lab (SAL). These data are analyzed using a multi-model inferential, spatial econometrics approach. We also examine the distribution of vegetation within distinct market categories using Claritas' Potential Rating Index for Zipcode Markets (PRIZM™) database. These categories can be disaggregated, corresponding to the four social theories. We compare the econometric and categorical results for validation. Models associated with ecology of prestige theory are more effective for predicting the distribution of vegetation. This suggests that private, residential patterns of vegetation, reflecting the consumption of environmentally relevant goods and services, are associated with different lifestyles and lifestages. Further, our spatial and temporal analyses suggest that there are significant spatial and temporal dependencies that have theoretical and methodological implications for understanding urban ecological systems. These findings may have policy implications. Decision makers may need to consider how to most effectively reach different social groups in terms of messages and messengers in order to advance land management practices and achieve urban sustainability.

Econometrics 101: forecasting demystified

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Crow, R.T.

1980-05-01

Forecasting by econometric modeling is described in a commonsense way which omits much of the technical jargon. A trend of continuous growth is no longer an adequate forecasting tool. Today's forecasters must consider rapid changes in price, policies, regulations, capital availability, and the cost of being wrong. A forecasting model is designed by identifying future influences on electricity purchases and quantifying their relationships to each other. A record is produced which can be evaluated and used to make corrections in the models. Residential consumption is used to illustrate how this works and to demonstrate how power consumption is also relatedmore » to the purchase and use of equipment. While models can quantify behavioral relationships, they cannot account for the impacts of non-price factors because of limited data. (DCK)« less

Econometric models for predicting confusion crop ratios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Umberger, D. E.; Proctor, M. H.; Clark, J. E.; Eisgruber, L. M.; Braschler, C. B. (Principal Investigator)

1979-01-01

Results for both the United States and Canada show that econometric models can provide estimates of confusion crop ratios that are more accurate than historical ratios. Whether these models can support the LACIE 90/90 accuracy criterion is uncertain. In the United States, experimenting with additional model formulations could provide improved methods models in some CRD's, particularly in winter wheat. Improved models may also be possible for the Canadian CD's. The more aggressive province/state models outperformed individual CD/CRD models. This result was expected partly because acreage statistics are based on sampling procedures, and the sampling precision declines from the province/state to the CD/CRD level. Declining sampling precision and the need to substitute province/state data for the CD/CRD data introduced measurement error into the CD/CRD models.

Spatial Econometric Research on the Relationship between Highway Construction and Regional Economic Growth in China: Evidence from the Nationwide Panel Data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ye, N. J.; Li, W. J.; Li, Y.; Bai, Y. F.

2017-12-01

Based on spatial panel data from 2010 to 2016 in China, this paper makes an empirical analysis on the relationship between highway construction and regional economic growth by means of spatial econometric model. The results show that there is positive spatial correlation on regional economic growth in China, and strong spatial dependences between some provinces and cities appear, specifically, Hebei, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang and other eastern coastal areas show high-high agglomeration trend, the Pearl River Delta region presents high-low agglomeration trend; In terms of nationwide provinces and municipalities, a province’s highway construction investment for their own province and the neighboring provinces has pulling effect on economic growth to a certain extent, and the direct effect is more obvious.

77 FR 28607 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-05-15

... bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well as representatives of transplant...; law and bioethics; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics; organ procurement organizations...

Explaining regional variations in health care utilization between Swiss cantons using panel econometric models

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In spite of a detailed and nation-wide legislation frame, there exist large cantonal disparities in consumed quantities of health care services in Switzerland. In this study, the most important factors of influence causing these regional disparities are determined. The findings can also be productive for discussing the containment of health care consumption in other countries. Methods Based on the literature, relevant factors that cause geographic disparities of quantities and costs in western health care systems are identified. Using a selected set of these factors, individual panel econometric models are calculated to explain the variation of the utilization in each of the six largest health care service groups (general practitioners, specialist doctors, hospital inpatient, hospital outpatient, medication, and nursing homes) in Swiss mandatory health insurance (MHI). The main data source is 'Datenpool santésuisse', a database of Swiss health insurers. Results For all six health care service groups, significant factors influencing the utilization frequency over time and across cantons are found. A greater supply of service providers tends to have strong interrelations with per capita consumption of MHI services. On the demand side, older populations and higher population densities represent the clearest driving factors. Conclusions Strategies to contain consumption and costs in health care should include several elements. In the federalist Swiss system, the structure of regional health care supply seems to generate significant effects. However, the extent of driving factors on the demand side (e.g., social deprivation) or financing instruments (e.g., high deductibles) should also be considered. PMID:22413884

Integrating geographic information systems and remote sensing with spatial econometric and mixed logit models for environmental valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wells, Aaron Raymond

This research focuses on the Emory and Obed Watersheds in the Cumberland Plateau in Central Tennessee and the Lower Hatchie River Watershed in West Tennessee. A framework based on market and nonmarket valuation techniques was used to empirically estimate economic values for environmental amenities and negative externalities in these areas. The specific techniques employed include a variation of hedonic pricing and discrete choice conjoint analysis (i.e., choice modeling), in addition to geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing. Microeconomic models of agent behavior, including random utility theory and profit maximization, provide the principal theoretical foundation linking valuation techniques and econometric models. The generalized method of moments estimator for a first-order spatial autoregressive function and mixed logit models are the principal econometric methods applied within the framework. The dissertation is subdivided into three separate chapters written in a manuscript format. The first chapter provides the necessary theoretical and mathematical conditions that must be satisfied in order for a forest amenity enhancement program to be implemented. These conditions include utility, value, and profit maximization. The second chapter evaluates the effect of forest land cover and information about future land use change on respondent preferences and willingness to pay for alternative hypothetical forest amenity enhancement options. Land use change information and the amount of forest land cover significantly influenced respondent preferences, choices, and stated willingness to pay. Hicksian welfare estimates for proposed enhancement options ranged from 57.42 to 25.53, depending on the policy specification, information level, and econometric model. The third chapter presents economic values for negative externalities associated with channelization that affect the productivity and overall market value of forested wetlands. Results of robust, generalized moments estimation of a double logarithmic first-order spatial autoregressive error model (inverse distance weights with spatial dependence up to 1500m) indicate that the implicit cost of damages to forested wetlands caused by channelization equaled -$5,438 ha-1. Collectively, the results of this dissertation provide economic measures of the damages to and benefits of environmental assets, help private landowners and policy makers identify the amenity attributes preferred by the public, and improve the management of natural resources.

A review on models for count data with extra zeros

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zamri, Nik Sarah Nik; Zamzuri, Zamira Hasanah

2017-04-01

Typically, the zero inflated models are usually used in modelling count data with excess zeros. The existence of the extra zeros could be structural zeros or random which occur by chance. These types of data are commonly found in various disciplines such as finance, insurance, biomedical, econometrical, ecology, and health sciences. As found in the literature, the most popular zero inflated models used are zero inflated Poisson and zero inflated negative binomial. Recently, more complex models have been developed to account for overdispersion and unobserved heterogeneity. In addition, more extended distributions are also considered in modelling data with this feature. In this paper, we review related literature, provide a recent development and summary on models for count data with extra zeros.

Automation of energy demand forecasting

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siddique, Sanzad

Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.

HIGHLIGHTING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN CONDITIONAL AND UNCONDITIONAL QUANTILE REGRESSION APPROACHES THROUGH AN APPLICATION TO ASSESS MEDICATION ADHERENCE

PubMed Central

BORAH, BIJAN J.; BASU, ANIRBAN

2014-01-01

The quantile regression (QR) framework provides a pragmatic approach in understanding the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of an outcome. However, the QR framework that has pervaded the applied economics literature is based on the conditional quantile regression method. It is used to assess the impact of a covariate on a quantile of the outcome conditional on specific values of other covariates. In most cases, conditional quantile regression may generate results that are often not generalizable or interpretable in a policy or population context. In contrast, the unconditional quantile regression method provides more interpretable results as it marginalizes the effect over the distributions of other covariates in the model. In this paper, the differences between these two regression frameworks are highlighted, both conceptually and econometrically. Additionally, using real-world claims data from a large US health insurer, alternative QR frameworks are implemented to assess the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of medication adherence among elderly patients with Alzheimer’s disease. PMID:23616446

Performance of people with diabetes in the labor market: An empirical approach controlling for complications.

PubMed

Rodríguez-Sánchez, Beatriz; Cantarero-Prieto, David

2017-11-01

This paper introduces a framework for modelling the impact that diabetes has on employment status and wages, improving the existing literature by controlling for diabetes-related complications. Using the last wave of the Spanish National Health Survey, we find that 1710 adults out of the original sample of 36,087 have diabetes, reporting higher rates of unemployment. Our empirical results suggest that persons with diabetes, compared with non-diabetic persons, have poorer labor outcomes in terms of length of unemployment and lower income. However, diabetes is not significantly associated with unemployment probabilities, suggesting that the burden of diabetes on employment is mediated by lifestyle factors and clinical and functional complications. In addition, there are mixed outcomes to this econometric approach, depending on age and gender, among other factors. This interesting finding has several implications for research and policy on strategies to get lower health inequalities. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Stochastic Forecasting of Labor Supply and Population: An Integrated Model.

PubMed

Fuchs, Johann; Söhnlein, Doris; Weber, Brigitte; Weber, Enzo

2018-01-01

This paper presents a stochastic model to forecast the German population and labor supply until 2060. Within a cohort-component approach, our population forecast applies principal components analysis to birth, mortality, emigration, and immigration rates, which allows for the reduction of dimensionality and accounts for correlation of the rates. Labor force participation rates are estimated by means of an econometric time series approach. All time series are forecast by stochastic simulation using the bootstrap method. As our model also distinguishes between German and foreign nationals, different developments in fertility, migration, and labor participation could be predicted. The results show that even rising birth rates and high levels of immigration cannot break the basic demographic trend in the long run. An important finding from an endogenous modeling of emigration rates is that high net migration in the long run will be difficult to achieve. Our stochastic perspective suggests therefore a high probability of substantially decreasing the labor supply in Germany.

[Determinants of health care utilization in Costa Rica].

PubMed

Morera Salas, Melvin; Aparicio Llanos, Amada

2010-01-01

To analyze the determinants of health care utilization (visits to the doctor) in Costa Rica using an econometric approach. Data were drawn from the National Survey of Health for Costa Rica 2006. We modeled the Grossman approach to the demand for health services by using a standard negative binomial regression, and used a hurdle model for the principal-agent specification. The factors determining healthcare utilization were level of education, self-assessed health, number of declared chronic diseases and geographic region of residence. The number of outpatient visits to the doctor depends on the proxies for medical need, but we found no multivariate association between the use of outpatient visits and income or insurance status. This result suggests that there is no problem with access in the public - almost universal - Costa Rican health system. No conclusive results were obtained on the influence of the physician on the frequency of use of health care services, as postulated by the principal-agent model. Copyright © 2010 SESPAS. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Finite element techniques in computational time series analysis of turbulent flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Horenko, I.

2009-04-01

In recent years there has been considerable increase of interest in the mathematical modeling and analysis of complex systems that undergo transitions between several phases or regimes. Such systems can be found, e.g., in weather forecast (transitions between weather conditions), climate research (ice and warm ages), computational drug design (conformational transitions) and in econometrics (e.g., transitions between different phases of the market). In all cases, the accumulation of sufficiently detailed time series has led to the formation of huge databases, containing enormous but still undiscovered treasures of information. However, the extraction of essential dynamics and identification of the phases is usually hindered by the multidimensional nature of the signal, i.e., the information is "hidden" in the time series. The standard filtering approaches (like f.~e. wavelets-based spectral methods) have in general unfeasible numerical complexity in high-dimensions, other standard methods (like f.~e. Kalman-filter, MVAR, ARCH/GARCH etc.) impose some strong assumptions about the type of the underlying dynamics. Approach based on optimization of the specially constructed regularized functional (describing the quality of data description in terms of the certain amount of specified models) will be introduced. Based on this approach, several new adaptive mathematical methods for simultaneous EOF/SSA-like data-based dimension reduction and identification of hidden phases in high-dimensional time series will be presented. The methods exploit the topological structure of the analysed data an do not impose severe assumptions on the underlying dynamics. Special emphasis will be done on the mathematical assumptions and numerical cost of the constructed methods. The application of the presented methods will be first demonstrated on a toy example and the results will be compared with the ones obtained by standard approaches. The importance of accounting for the mathematical assumptions used in the analysis will be pointed up in this example. Finally, applications to analysis of meteorological and climate data will be presented.

Development of Regional Power Sector Coal Fuel Costs (Prices) for the Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) Model

EIA Publications

2017-01-01

The U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) produces monthly projections of energy supply, demand, trade, and prices over a 13-24 month period. Every January, the forecast horizon is extended through December of the following year. The STEO model is an integrated system of econometric regression equations and identities that link data on the various components of the U.S. energy industry together in order to develop consistent forecasts. The regression equations are estimated and the STEO model is solved using the EViews 9.5 econometric software package from IHS Global Inc. The model consists of various modules specific to each energy resource. All modules provide projections for the United States, and some modules provide more detailed forecasts for different regions of the country.

Systems GMM estimates of the health care spending and GDP relationship: a note.

PubMed

Kumar, Saten

2013-06-01

This paper utilizes the systems generalized method of moments (GMM) [Arellano and Bover (1995) J Econometrics 68:29-51; Blundell and Bond (1998) J Econometrics 87:115-143], and panel Granger causality [Hurlin and Venet (2001) Granger Causality tests in panel data models with fixed coefficients. Mime'o, University Paris IX], to investigate the health care spending and gross domestic product (GDP) relationship for organisation for economic co-operation and development countries over the period 1960-2007. The system GMM estimates confirm that the contribution of real GDP to health spending is significant and positive. The panel Granger causality tests imply that a bi-directional causality exists between health spending and GDP. To this end, policies aimed at raising health spending will eventually improve the well-being of the population in the long run.

Computationally intensive econometrics using a distributed matrix-programming language.

PubMed

Doornik, Jurgen A; Hendry, David F; Shephard, Neil

2002-06-15

This paper reviews the need for powerful computing facilities in econometrics, focusing on concrete problems which arise in financial economics and in macroeconomics. We argue that the profession is being held back by the lack of easy-to-use generic software which is able to exploit the availability of cheap clusters of distributed computers. Our response is to extend, in a number of directions, the well-known matrix-programming interpreted language Ox developed by the first author. We note three possible levels of extensions: (i) Ox with parallelization explicit in the Ox code; (ii) Ox with a parallelized run-time library; and (iii) Ox with a parallelized interpreter. This paper studies and implements the first case, emphasizing the need for deterministic computing in science. We give examples in the context of financial economics and time-series modelling.

The impact of corruption on the sustainable development of human capital

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Absalyamova, Svetlana; Absalyamov, Timur; Khusnullova, Asiya; Mukhametgalieva, Chulpan

2016-08-01

The article explains the use of the human capital sustainable development index (HCSDI) to assess the quality of the reproduction of human capital. The paper provides the algorithm for calculating HCSDI and its components. Authors estimated cross-country differences of HCSDI and developed econometric model of the impact of corruption on HCSDI. The use of this model has allowed to reveal the mechanism and assess the impact of corruption on HCSDI and its components. The results of econometric analysis revealed a negative multiplier effect: an increase in the corruption of the socio-economic system of the state by 1% caused HCSDI reduce by more than 1%. The results and conclusions may be proxy-assessments of the socio-economic consequences of violations of the stability of reproduction of human capital in the conditions of the growth of corruption in the country

Modeling conflict : research methods, quantitative modeling, and lessons learned.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rexroth, Paul E.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Hendrickson, Gerald A.

2004-09-01

This study investigates the factors that lead countries into conflict. Specifically, political, social and economic factors may offer insight as to how prone a country (or set of countries) may be for inter-country or intra-country conflict. Largely methodological in scope, this study examines the literature for quantitative models that address or attempt to model conflict both in the past, and for future insight. The analysis concentrates specifically on the system dynamics paradigm, not the political science mainstream approaches of econometrics and game theory. The application of this paradigm builds upon the most sophisticated attempt at modeling conflict as a resultmore » of system level interactions. This study presents the modeling efforts built on limited data and working literature paradigms, and recommendations for future attempts at modeling conflict.« less

Modeling of gold production in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Muda, Nora; Ainuddeen, Nasihah Rasyiqah; Ismail, Hamizun; Umor, Mohd Rozi

2013-04-01

This study was conducted to identify the main factors that contribute to the gold production and hence determine the factors that affect to the development of the mining industry in Malaysia. An econometric approach was used by performing the cointegration analysis among the factors to determine the existence of long term relationship between the gold prices, the number of gold mines, the number of workers in gold mines and the gold production. The study continued with the Granger analysis to determine the relationship between factors and gold production. Results have found that there are long term relationship between price, gold production and number of employees. Granger causality analysis shows that there is only one way relationship between the number of employees with gold production in Malaysia and the number of gold mines in Malaysia.

Application of modern tests for stationarity to single-trial MEG data: transferring powerful statistical tools from econometrics to neuroscience.

PubMed

Kipiński, Lech; König, Reinhard; Sielużycki, Cezary; Kordecki, Wojciech

2011-10-01

Stationarity is a crucial yet rarely questioned assumption in the analysis of time series of magneto- (MEG) or electroencephalography (EEG). One key drawback of the commonly used tests for stationarity of encephalographic time series is the fact that conclusions on stationarity are only indirectly inferred either from the Gaussianity (e.g. the Shapiro-Wilk test or Kolmogorov-Smirnov test) or the randomness of the time series and the absence of trend using very simple time-series models (e.g. the sign and trend tests by Bendat and Piersol). We present a novel approach to the analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series by applying modern statistical methods which were specifically developed in econometrics to verify the hypothesis that a time series is stationary. We report our findings of the application of three different tests of stationarity--the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Schin (KPSS) test for trend or mean stationarity, the Phillips-Perron (PP) test for the presence of a unit root and the White test for homoscedasticity--on an illustrative set of MEG data. For five stimulation sessions, we found already for short epochs of duration of 250 and 500 ms that, although the majority of the studied epochs of single MEG trials were usually mean-stationary (KPSS test and PP test), they were classified as nonstationary due to their heteroscedasticity (White test). We also observed that the presence of external auditory stimulation did not significantly affect the findings regarding the stationarity of the data. We conclude that the combination of these tests allows a refined analysis of the stationarity of MEG and EEG time series.

Long-run relative importance of temperature as the main driver to malaria transmission in Limpopo Province, South Africa: a simple econometric approach.

PubMed

Komen, Kibii; Olwoch, Jane; Rautenbach, Hannes; Botai, Joel; Adebayo, Adetunji

2015-03-01

Malaria in Limpopo Province of South Africa is shifting and now observed in originally non-malaria districts, and it is unclear whether climate change drives this shift. This study examines the distribution of malaria at district level in the province, determines direction and strength of the linear relationship and causality between malaria with the meteorological variables (rainfall and temperature) and ascertains their short- and long-run variations. Spatio-temporal method, Correlation analysis and econometric methods are applied. Time series monthly meteorological data (1998-2007) were obtained from South Africa Weather Services, while clinical malaria data came from Malaria Control Centre in Tzaneen (Limpopo Province) and South African Department of Health. We find that malaria changes and pressures vary in different districts with a strong positive correlation between temperature with malaria, r = 0.5212, and a weak positive relationship for rainfall, r = 0.2810. Strong unidirectional causality runs from rainfall and temperature to malaria cases (and not vice versa): F (1, 117) = 3.89, ρ = 0.0232 and F (1, 117) = 20.08, P < 0.001 and between rainfall and temperature, a bi-directional causality exists: F (1, 117) = 19.80; F (1,117) = 17.14, P < 0.001, respectively, meaning that rainfall affects temperature and vice versa. Results show evidence of strong existence of a long-run relationship between climate variables and malaria, with temperature maintaining very high level of significance than rainfall. Temperature, therefore, is more important in influencing malaria transmission in Limpopo Province.

Food preparation patterns in German family households. An econometric approach with time budget data.

PubMed

Möser, Anke

2010-08-01

In Germany, the rising importance of out-of-home consumption, increasing usage of convenience products and decreasing knowledge of younger individuals how to prepare traditional dishes can be seen as obvious indicators for shifting patterns in food preparation. In this paper, econometric analyses are used to shed more light on the factors which may influence the time spent on food preparation in two-parent family households with children. Two time budget surveys, carried out 1991/92 and 2001/02 through the German National Statistical Office, provide the necessary data. Time budget data analyses reveal that over the last ten years the time spent on food preparation in Germany has decreased. The results point out that time resources of a household, for example gainful employment of the parents, significantly affect the amount of time spent on food preparation. The analysis confirms further that there is a more equal allocation of time spent on cooking, baking or laying the table between women and men in the last ten years. Due to changing attitudes and conceivably adaption of economic conditions, differences in time devoted to food preparation seem to have vanished between Eastern and Western Germany. Greater time spent on eating out in Germany as well as decreasing time spent on food preparation at home reveal that the food provisioning of families is no longer a primarily private task of the households themselves but needs more public attention and institutional offers and help. Among other points, the possibility of addressing mothers' lack of time as well as growing "food illiteracy" of children and young adults are discussed. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analysis of environmental constraints on expanding reserves in current and future reservoirs in wetlands. Final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Harder, B.J.

1995-03-01

Louisiana wetlands require careful management to allow exploitation of non-renewable resources without destroying renewable resources. Current regulatory requirements have been moderately successful in meeting this goal by restricting development in wetland habitats. Continuing public emphasis on reducing environmental impacts of resource development is causing regulators to reassess their regulations and operators to rethink their compliance strategies. We examined the regulatory system and found that reducing the number of applications required by going to a single application process and having a coherent map of the steps required for operations in wetland areas would reduce regulatory burdens. Incremental changes can be mademore » to regulations to allow one agency to be the lead for wetland permitting at minimal cost to operators. Operators need cost effective means of access that will reduce environmental impacts, decrease permitting time, and limit future liability. Regulators and industry must partner to develop incentive based regulations that can provide significant environmental impact reduction for minimal economic cost. In addition regulators need forecasts of future E&P trends to estimate the impact of future regulations. To determine future activity we attempted to survey potential operators when this approach was unsuccessful we created two econometric models of north and south Louisiana relating drilling activity, success ratio, and price to predict future wetland activity. Results of the econometric models indicate that environmental regulations have a small but statistically significant effect on drilling operations in wetland areas of Louisiana. We examined current wetland practices and evaluated those practices comparing environmental versus economic costs and created a method for ranking the practices.« less

Scale Mixture Models with Applications to Bayesian Inference

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qin, Zhaohui S.; Damien, Paul; Walker, Stephen

2003-11-01

Scale mixtures of uniform distributions are used to model non-normal data in time series and econometrics in a Bayesian framework. Heteroscedastic and skewed data models are also tackled using scale mixture of uniform distributions.

The economic value of remote sensing of earth resources from space: An ERTS overview and the value of continuity of service. Volume 3: Intensive use of living resources, agriculture. Part 3: The integrated impact of improved (ERS) information on US agricultural commodities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seidel, A. D.

1974-01-01

The economic value of information produced by an assumed operational version of an earth resources survey satellite of the ERTS class is assessed. The theoretical capability of an ERTS system to provide improved agricultural forecasts is analyzed and this analysis is used as a reasonable input to the econometric methods derived by ECON. An econometric investigation into the markets for agricultural commodities is summarized. An overview of the effort including the objectives, scopes, and architecture of the analysis, and the estimation strategy employed is presented. The results and conclusions focus on the economic importance of improved crop forecasts, U.S. exports, and government policy operations. Several promising avenues of further investigation are suggested.

Evaluation of factors affecting prescribing behaviors, in iran pharmaceutical market by econometric methods.

PubMed

Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

2015-01-01

Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies.

Panel data analysis of cardiotocograph (CTG) data.

PubMed

Horio, Hiroyuki; Kikuchi, Hitomi; Ikeda, Tomoaki

2013-01-01

Panel data analysis is a statistical method, widely used in econometrics, which deals with two-dimensional panel data collected over time and over individuals. Cardiotocograph (CTG) which monitors fetal heart rate (FHR) using Doppler ultrasound and uterine contraction by strain gage is commonly used in intrapartum treatment of pregnant women. Although the relationship between FHR waveform pattern and the outcome such as umbilical blood gas data at delivery has long been analyzed, there exists no accumulated FHR patterns from large number of cases. As time-series economic fluctuations in econometrics such as consumption trend has been studied using panel data which consists of time-series and cross-sectional data, we tried to apply this method to CTG data. The panel data composed of a symbolized segment of FHR pattern can be easily handled, and a perinatologist can get the whole FHR pattern view from the microscopic level of time-series FHR data.

Optimizing distance-based methods for large data sets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Scholl, Tobias; Brenner, Thomas

2015-10-01

Distance-based methods for measuring spatial concentration of industries have received an increasing popularity in the spatial econometrics community. However, a limiting factor for using these methods is their computational complexity since both their memory requirements and running times are in {{O}}(n^2). In this paper, we present an algorithm with constant memory requirements and shorter running time, enabling distance-based methods to deal with large data sets. We discuss three recent distance-based methods in spatial econometrics: the D&O-Index by Duranton and Overman (Rev Econ Stud 72(4):1077-1106, 2005), the M-function by Marcon and Puech (J Econ Geogr 10(5):745-762, 2010) and the Cluster-Index by Scholl and Brenner (Reg Stud (ahead-of-print):1-15, 2014). Finally, we present an alternative calculation for the latter index that allows the use of data sets with millions of firms.

Evaluation of Factors Affecting Prescribing Behaviors, in Iran Pharmaceutical Market by Econometric Methods

PubMed Central

Tahmasebi, Nima; Kebriaeezadeh, Abbas

2015-01-01

Prescribing behavior of physicians affected by many factors. The present study is aimed at discovering the simultaneous effects of the evaluated factors (including: price, promotion and demographic characteristics of physicians) and quantification of these effects. In order to estimate these effects, Fluvoxamine (an antidepressant drug) was selected and the model was figured out by panel data method in econometrics. We found that insurance and advertisement respectively are the most effective on increasing the frequency of prescribing, whilst negative correlation was observed between price and the frequency of prescribing a drug. Also brand type is more sensitive to negative effect of price than to generic. Furthermore, demand for a prescription drug is related with physician demographics (age and sex). According to the results of this study, pharmaceutical companies should pay more attention to the demographic characteristics of physicians (age and sex) and their advertisement and pricing strategies. PMID:25901174

Using Instrumental Variable (IV) Tests to Evaluate Model Specification in Latent Variable Structural Equation Models*

PubMed Central

Kirby, James B.; Bollen, Kenneth A.

2009-01-01

Structural Equation Modeling with latent variables (SEM) is a powerful tool for social and behavioral scientists, combining many of the strengths of psychometrics and econometrics into a single framework. The most common estimator for SEM is the full-information maximum likelihood estimator (ML), but there is continuing interest in limited information estimators because of their distributional robustness and their greater resistance to structural specification errors. However, the literature discussing model fit for limited information estimators for latent variable models is sparse compared to that for full information estimators. We address this shortcoming by providing several specification tests based on the 2SLS estimator for latent variable structural equation models developed by Bollen (1996). We explain how these tests can be used to not only identify a misspecified model, but to help diagnose the source of misspecification within a model. We present and discuss results from a Monte Carlo experiment designed to evaluate the finite sample properties of these tests. Our findings suggest that the 2SLS tests successfully identify most misspecified models, even those with modest misspecification, and that they provide researchers with information that can help diagnose the source of misspecification. PMID:20419054

Priorities for the poor: a conceptual framework for policy analysis.

PubMed

Pleskovic, B; Sivitanides, P

1993-04-01

A number of poverty alleviation strategies have been developed over the last 2 decades. While these varies approaches have helped stimulate and guide policymaker consideration of the issue, poverty nonetheless remains an enormous problem in most developing countries. Budgetary and administrative constraints demand that the comprehensive basic needs of the poor not be addressed concurrently. Poverty policy and practice will instead be most effective if needs and expenditures identified by evaluating social indicators and social expenditure programs are prioritized. Applied to the case of Morocco, a conceptual framework is presented for identifying priority poverty problems and social expenditure policies. The methodology allows one to sort out critical poverty problems and analyze their causes by using aggregate, territorial, and references indicators; provides a framework for understanding and evaluating the interlinked effects of investments in social sectors; and introduces a tool for selecting cost-effective policy packages for poverty alleviation. The methodology could, however, be refined by improving the derivation of reference indicators by accounting for predetermined government objectives. The estimation of direct and indirect effects of investments in the critical poverty sectors could also be improved. Additional research is called for to determine how econometric models should be structured to aid in quantifying Morocco's SIO tables and how the estimated linkages may be used to extend and improve the cost-benefit analysis of antipoverty policies.

Proposed industrial recovered materials utilization targets for the metals and metal-products industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

1979-05-01

The introductory chapter provides a discussion of the factors that affect the recovery and reuse of secondary materials and the competition between the primary and secondary metals industries. It discusses these industries in terms of resource characteristics, industry technology, pollution control requirements, market structure, the economics of recycling, and the issues involved in econometrically estimating scrap supply response behavior. It further presents the methodology established by DOE for the metals, textiles, rubber, and pulp and paper industries. The areas in which government policies might have a significant impact on the utilization of primary and secondary metals and on any recyclingmore » targets between now and 1987 are noted. Chapter 3 presents general profiles for the major industrial segments comprising SIC 33. The profiles include such topics as industry structure, process technology, materials and recycling flow, and future trends. Chapter 4 specifically covers the evaluation of recycling targets for the ferrous, aluminum, copper, zinc, and lead industries. (MCW)« less

Housing land transaction data and structural econometric estimation of preference parameters for urban economic simulation models

PubMed Central

Caruso, Geoffrey; Cavailhès, Jean; Peeters, Dominique; Thomas, Isabelle; Frankhauser, Pierre; Vuidel, Gilles

2015-01-01

This paper describes a dataset of 6284 land transactions prices and plot surfaces in 3 medium-sized cities in France (Besançon, Dijon and Brest). The dataset includes road accessibility as obtained from a minimization algorithm, and the amount of green space available to households in the neighborhood of the transactions, as evaluated from a land cover dataset. Further to the data presentation, the paper describes how these variables can be used to estimate the non-observable parameters of a residential choice function explicitly derived from a microeconomic model. The estimates are used by Caruso et al. (2015) to run a calibrated microeconomic urban growth simulation model where households are assumed to trade-off accessibility and local green space amenities. PMID:26958606

Turning points in international labor migration: a case study of Thailand.

PubMed

Vasuprasat, P

1994-01-01

"This article describes the dynamics of the structural transformation of the Thai economy, labor migration and direct foreign investment and proposes an econometric model to explain the migration phenomenon. Though migration shifts have been significantly influenced by political factors such as the Gulf crisis and tensions with Saudi Arabia, economic factors such as the Thai government's liberalization of markets and the expansion of trade and direct foreign investment have contributed to changes in labor market needs. The economic conditions of a shift from net exporter to net importer for labor are posited in the model. The empirical results reveal a turning point in labor migration from Thailand and also confirm the contribution of commodity export in place of labor export in creating employment and income." excerpt

Perspectives on econometric modelling to inform policy: a UK qualitative case study of minimum unit pricing of alcohol

PubMed Central

Bond, Lyndal; Hilton, Shona

2014-01-01

Background: Novel policy interventions may lack evaluation-based evidence. Considerations to introduce minimum unit pricing (MUP) of alcohol in the UK were informed by econometric modelling (the ‘Sheffield model’). We aim to investigate policy stakeholders’ views of the utility of modelling studies for public health policy. Methods: In-depth qualitative interviews with 36 individuals involved in MUP policy debates (purposively sampled to include civil servants, politicians, academics, advocates and industry-related actors) were conducted and thematically analysed. Results: Interviewees felt familiar with modelling studies and often displayed detailed understandings of the Sheffield model. Despite this, many were uneasy about the extent to which the Sheffield model could be relied on for informing policymaking and preferred traditional evaluations. A tension was identified between this preference for post hoc evaluations and a desire for evidence derived from local data, with modelling seen to offer high external validity. MUP critics expressed concern that the Sheffield model did not adequately capture the ‘real life’ world of the alcohol market, which was conceptualized as a complex and, to some extent, inherently unpredictable system. Communication of modelling results was considered intrinsically difficult but presenting an appropriate picture of the uncertainties inherent in modelling was viewed as desirable. There was general enthusiasm for increased use of econometric modelling to inform future policymaking but an appreciation that such evidence should only form one input into the process. Conclusion: Modelling studies are valued by policymakers as they provide contextually relevant evidence for novel policies, but tensions exist with views of traditional evaluation-based evidence. PMID:24367068

Integrating transit and urban form : final report, December 2008.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-09-01

This study develops an integrated behavioral model of transit patronage and urban form. Although herein focused on transit, the framework can be easily generalized to study other forms of travel. Advanced econometric methods are used to test specific...

78 FR 49276 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-08-13

...; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics; organ procurement organizations; transplant candidates..., non-physician transplant professions, nursing, epidemiology, immunology, law and bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well as representatives of transplant candidates, transplant...

75 FR 57807 - Advisory Committee on Organ Transplantation; Request for Nominations for Voting Members

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2010-09-22

... bioethics; behavioral sciences; economics and econometrics; organ procurement organizations; transplant..., non-physician transplant professions, nursing, epidemiology, immunology, law and bioethics, behavioral sciences, economics and statistics, as well as representatives of transplant candidates, transplant...

Air cargo market outlook and impact via the NASA CLASS project. [Cargo/Logistics Airlift Systems Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Winston, M. M.; Conner, D. W.

1980-01-01

An overview is given of the Cargo/Logistics Airlift Systems Study (CLASS) project which was a 10 man-year effort carried out by two contractor teams, aimed at defining factors impacting future system growth and obtaining market requirements and design guidelines for future air freighters. Growth projection was estimated by two approaches: one, an optimal systems approach with a more efficient and cost effective system considered as being available in 1990; and the other, an evolutionary approach with an econometric behavior model used to predict long term evolution from the present system. Both approaches predict significant growth in demand for international air freighter services and less growth for U.S. domestic services. Economic analysis of air freighter fleet options indicate very strong market appeal of derivative widebody transports in 1990 with little incentive to develop all new dedicated air freighters utilizing the 1990's technology until sometime beyond the year 2000. Advanced air freighters would be economically attractive for a wide range of payload sizes (to 500 metric tons), however, if a government would share in the RD and T costs by virtue of its needs for a slightly modified version of a civil air freighter design (a.g. military airlifter).

An approximate generalized linear model with random effects for informative missing data.

PubMed

Follmann, D; Wu, M

1995-03-01

This paper develops a class of models to deal with missing data from longitudinal studies. We assume that separate models for the primary response and missingness (e.g., number of missed visits) are linked by a common random parameter. Such models have been developed in the econometrics (Heckman, 1979, Econometrica 47, 153-161) and biostatistics (Wu and Carroll, 1988, Biometrics 44, 175-188) literature for a Gaussian primary response. We allow the primary response, conditional on the random parameter, to follow a generalized linear model and approximate the generalized linear model by conditioning on the data that describes missingness. The resultant approximation is a mixed generalized linear model with possibly heterogeneous random effects. An example is given to illustrate the approximate approach, and simulations are performed to critique the adequacy of the approximation for repeated binary data.

A spatial error model with continuous random effects and an application to growth convergence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laurini, Márcio Poletti

2017-10-01

We propose a spatial error model with continuous random effects based on Matérn covariance functions and apply this model for the analysis of income convergence processes (β -convergence). The use of a model with continuous random effects permits a clearer visualization and interpretation of the spatial dependency patterns, avoids the problems of defining neighborhoods in spatial econometrics models, and allows projecting the spatial effects for every possible location in the continuous space, circumventing the existing aggregations in discrete lattice representations. We apply this model approach to analyze the economic growth of Brazilian municipalities between 1991 and 2010 using unconditional and conditional formulations and a spatiotemporal model of convergence. The results indicate that the estimated spatial random effects are consistent with the existence of income convergence clubs for Brazilian municipalities in this period.

Why do vulnerability cycles matter in financial networks?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Silva, Thiago Christiano; Tabak, Benjamin Miranda; Guerra, Solange Maria

2017-04-01

We compare two widely employed models that estimate systemic risk: DebtRank and Differential DebtRank. We show that not only network cyclicality but also the average vulnerability of banks are essential concepts that contribute to widening the gap in the systemic risk estimates of both approaches. We find that systemic risk estimates are the same whenever the network has no cycles. However, in case the network presents cyclicality, then we need to inspect the average vulnerability of banks to estimate the underestimation gap. We find that the gap is small regardless of the cyclicality of the network when its average vulnerability is large. In contrast, the observed gap follows a quadratic behavior when the average vulnerability is small or intermediate. We show results using an econometric exercise and draw guidelines both on artificial and real-world financial networks.

Essays on measurement and evaluation of demand side management programs in the electricity industry, and impacts of firm strategy on stock price in the biotechnology industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bandres Motola, Miguel A.

Essay one estimates changes in small business customer energy consumption (kWh) patterns resulting from a seasonally differentiated pricing structure. Econometric analysis leverages cross-sectional time series data across the entire population of affected customers, from 2007 through the present. Observations include: monthly energy usage (kWh), relevant customer segmentations, local daily temperature, energy price, and region-specific economic conditions, among other variables. The study identifies the determinants of responsiveness to seasonal price differentiation. In addition, estimated energy consumption changes occurring during the 2010 summer season are reported for the average customer and in aggregate grouped by relevant customer segments, climate zone, and total customer base. Essay two develops an econometric modeling methodology to evaluate load impacts for short duration demand response events. The study analyzes time series data from a season of direct load control program tests aimed at integrating demand response into the wholesale electricity market. I have combined "fuzzy logic" with binary variables to create "fuzzy indicator variables" that allow for measurement of short duration events while using industry standard model specifications. Typically, binary variables for every hour are applied in load impact analysis of programs dispatched in hourly intervals. As programs evolve towards integration with the wholesale market, event durations become irregular and often occur for periods of only a few minutes. This methodology is innovative in that it conserves the degrees of freedom in the model while allowing for analysis of high frequency data using fixed effects. Essay three examines the effects of strategies, intangibles, and FDA news on the stocks of young biopharmaceutical firms. An event study methodology is used to explore those effects. This study investigates 20,839 announcements from 1990 to 2005. Announcements on drug development, alliances, publications, presentations, and FDA approval have a positive effect on the short-term performance of young biopharmaceutical firms. Announcements on goals not met, FDA drug approval denied, and changes in structural organizations have a negative effect on the short-term performance of young biopharmaceutical firms.

Valuing Eastern Visibility: A Field Test of the Contingent Valuation Method (1993)

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

The report describes the Eastern visibility survey design in detail, presents the implementation of and data obtained from the surveys, provides summary statistics on the overall response and discusses the econometric techniques employed to value benefits.

ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS FOR WATERSHED RESTORATION

EPA Science Inventory

This book overviews non-market valuation, input-output analysis, cost-benefit analysis, and presents case studies from the Mid Atlantic Highland region, with all but the bare minimum econometrics, statistics, and math excluded or relegated to an appendix. It is a non-market valu...

78 FR 67103 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-11-08

... analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science... following disciplines: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social... expertise in such areas as demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology...

77 FR 1454 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-01-10

..., statistical analysis, survey methodology, geospatial analysis, econometrics, cognitive psychology, and... following disciplines: Demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social... technical expertise in such areas as demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics, survey...

Interplay between past market correlation structure changes and future volatility outbursts.

PubMed

Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T

2016-11-18

We report significant relations between past changes in the market correlation structure and future changes in the market volatility. This relation is made evident by using a measure of "correlation structure persistence" on correlation-based information filtering networks that quantifies the rate of change of the market dependence structure. We also measured changes in the correlation structure by means of a "metacorrelation" that measures a lagged correlation between correlation matrices computed over different time windows. Both methods show a deep interplay between past changes in correlation structure and future changes in volatility and we demonstrate they can anticipate market risk variations and this can be used to better forecast portfolio risk. Notably, these methods overcome the curse of dimensionality that limits the applicability of traditional econometric tools to portfolios made of a large number of assets. We report on forecasting performances and statistical significance of both methods for two different equity datasets. We also identify an optimal region of parameters in terms of True Positive and False Positive trade-off, through a ROC curve analysis. We find that this forecasting method is robust and it outperforms logistic regression predictors based on past volatility only. Moreover the temporal analysis indicates that methods based on correlation structural persistence are able to adapt to abrupt changes in the market, such as financial crises, more rapidly than methods based on past volatility.

Interplay between past market correlation structure changes and future volatility outbursts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T.

2016-11-01

We report significant relations between past changes in the market correlation structure and future changes in the market volatility. This relation is made evident by using a measure of “correlation structure persistence” on correlation-based information filtering networks that quantifies the rate of change of the market dependence structure. We also measured changes in the correlation structure by means of a “metacorrelation” that measures a lagged correlation between correlation matrices computed over different time windows. Both methods show a deep interplay between past changes in correlation structure and future changes in volatility and we demonstrate they can anticipate market risk variations and this can be used to better forecast portfolio risk. Notably, these methods overcome the curse of dimensionality that limits the applicability of traditional econometric tools to portfolios made of a large number of assets. We report on forecasting performances and statistical significance of both methods for two different equity datasets. We also identify an optimal region of parameters in terms of True Positive and False Positive trade-off, through a ROC curve analysis. We find that this forecasting method is robust and it outperforms logistic regression predictors based on past volatility only. Moreover the temporal analysis indicates that methods based on correlation structural persistence are able to adapt to abrupt changes in the market, such as financial crises, more rapidly than methods based on past volatility.

Interplay between past market correlation structure changes and future volatility outbursts

PubMed Central

Musmeci, Nicoló; Aste, Tomaso; Di Matteo, T.

2016-01-01

We report significant relations between past changes in the market correlation structure and future changes in the market volatility. This relation is made evident by using a measure of “correlation structure persistence” on correlation-based information filtering networks that quantifies the rate of change of the market dependence structure. We also measured changes in the correlation structure by means of a “metacorrelation” that measures a lagged correlation between correlation matrices computed over different time windows. Both methods show a deep interplay between past changes in correlation structure and future changes in volatility and we demonstrate they can anticipate market risk variations and this can be used to better forecast portfolio risk. Notably, these methods overcome the curse of dimensionality that limits the applicability of traditional econometric tools to portfolios made of a large number of assets. We report on forecasting performances and statistical significance of both methods for two different equity datasets. We also identify an optimal region of parameters in terms of True Positive and False Positive trade-off, through a ROC curve analysis. We find that this forecasting method is robust and it outperforms logistic regression predictors based on past volatility only. Moreover the temporal analysis indicates that methods based on correlation structural persistence are able to adapt to abrupt changes in the market, such as financial crises, more rapidly than methods based on past volatility. PMID:27857144

Conventional and advanced time series estimation: application to the Australian and New Zealand Intensive Care Society (ANZICS) adult patient database, 1993-2006.

PubMed

Moran, John L; Solomon, Patricia J

2011-02-01

Time series analysis has seen limited application in the biomedical Literature. The utility of conventional and advanced time series estimators was explored for intensive care unit (ICU) outcome series. Monthly mean time series, 1993-2006, for hospital mortality, severity-of-illness score (APACHE III), ventilation fraction and patient type (medical and surgical), were generated from the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society adult patient database. Analyses encompassed geographical seasonal mortality patterns, series structural time changes, mortality series volatility using autoregressive moving average and Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity models in which predicted variances are updated adaptively, and bivariate and multivariate (vector error correction models) cointegrating relationships between series. The mortality series exhibited marked seasonality, declining mortality trend and substantial autocorrelation beyond 24 lags. Mortality increased in winter months (July-August); the medical series featured annual cycling, whereas the surgical demonstrated long and short (3-4 months) cycling. Series structural breaks were apparent in January 1995 and December 2002. The covariance stationary first-differenced mortality series was consistent with a seasonal autoregressive moving average process; the observed conditional-variance volatility (1993-1995) and residual Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity effects entailed a Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity model, preferred by information criterion and mean model forecast performance. Bivariate cointegration, indicating long-term equilibrium relationships, was established between mortality and severity-of-illness scores at the database level and for categories of ICUs. Multivariate cointegration was demonstrated for {log APACHE III score, log ICU length of stay, ICU mortality and ventilation fraction}. A system approach to understanding series time-dependence may be established using conventional and advanced econometric time series estimators. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Assessing economic impacts to coastal recreation and tourism from oil and gas development in the Oregon and Washington Outer Continental Shelf. Inventory and evaluation of Washington and Oregon coastal recreation resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellis, G.M.; Johnson, N.S.; Chapman, D.

The purpose of the three-part study was to assist Materials Management Service (MMS) planners in evaluation of the anticipated social impact of proposed oil and gas development on the environment. The purpose of the report is primarily to analyze the econometric models of the Dornbusch study. The authors examine, in detail, key aspects of the gravity, consumer surplus, and economic effects (input-output) models. The purpose is two-fold. First, the authors evaluate the performance of the model in satisfying the objective for which it was developed: analyzing economic impacts of OCS oil and gas development in California. Second, the authors evaluatemore » the applicability of the modeling approach employed in the Dornbusch study for analyzing potential OCS development impacts in Washington and Oregon. At the end of the report, the authors offer suggestions for any future study of economic impacts of OCS development in Washington and Oregon. The recommendations concern future data gathering procedures and alternative modeling approaches for measuring economic impacts.« less

Tobacco smoking and depression: time to move on to a new research paradigm in medicine?

PubMed

de Jonge, Peter; Bos, Elisabeth Henriette

2013-05-24

A recent paper published in BMC Cardiovascular Disorders reported on a study into whether tobacco smoking may serve as a risk factor for depression in patients with heart disease. In the current paper, we discuss several limitations of that study, of which many apply not just to the study itself but to the nomothetic research design that was used. Particularly when bidirectionality between variables is expected, fluctuation in variables over time takes place, and/or inter-individual differences are considerable, a nomothetic research approach does not seem appropriate, and may lead to false conclusions. As an alternative, we describe an idiographic approach in which individuals are followed up over time using many repeated measurements, and from which individual models are estimated. Such intensive time-series studies are not common in medicine, but are well described in the fields of econometrics and meteorology. Combining idiographic research designs with more traditional nomothetic designs may lead to research findings that are not only useful for society but also valid in individuals. See related research article here http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2261/13/35.

Tobacco smoking and depression: time to move on to a new research paradigm in medicine?

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

A recent paper published in BMC Cardiovascular Disorders reported on a study into whether tobacco smoking may serve as a risk factor for depression in patients with heart disease. In the current paper, we discuss several limitations of that study, of which many apply not just to the study itself but to the nomothetic research design that was used. Particularly when bidirectionality between variables is expected, fluctuation in variables over time takes place, and/or inter-individual differences are considerable, a nomothetic research approach does not seem appropriate, and may lead to false conclusions. As an alternative, we describe an idiographic approach in which individuals are followed up over time using many repeated measurements, and from which individual models are estimated. Such intensive time-series studies are not common in medicine, but are well described in the fields of econometrics and meteorology. Combining idiographic research designs with more traditional nomothetic designs may lead to research findings that are not only useful for society but also valid in individuals. See related research article here http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2261/13/35. PMID:23705867

R and D Evaluation Workshop report, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Research, September 7--8, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jordan, G.

1995-10-30

The objective of the workshop was to promote discussions between experts and research managers on developing approaches for assessing the impact of DOE`s basic energy research upon the energy mission, applied research, technology transfer, the economy, and society. The purpose of this impact assessment is to demonstrate results and improve ER research programs in this era when basic research is expected to meet changing national economic and social goals. The questions addressed were: (1) By what criteria and metrics does Energy Research measure performance and evaluate its impact on the DOE mission and society while maintaining an environment that fostersmore » basic research? (2) What combination of evaluation methods best applies to assessing the performance and impact of OBES basic research? The focus will be upon the following methods: Case studies, User surveys, Citation analysis, TRACES approach, Return on DOE investment (ROI)/Econometrics, and Expert panels. (3) What combination of methods and specific rules of thumb can be applied to capture impacts along the spectrum from basic research to products and societal impacts?« less

Highlighting differences between conditional and unconditional quantile regression approaches through an application to assess medication adherence.

PubMed

Borah, Bijan J; Basu, Anirban

2013-09-01

The quantile regression (QR) framework provides a pragmatic approach in understanding the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of an outcome. However, the QR framework that has pervaded the applied economics literature is based on the conditional quantile regression method. It is used to assess the impact of a covariate on a quantile of the outcome conditional on specific values of other covariates. In most cases, conditional quantile regression may generate results that are often not generalizable or interpretable in a policy or population context. In contrast, the unconditional quantile regression method provides more interpretable results as it marginalizes the effect over the distributions of other covariates in the model. In this paper, the differences between these two regression frameworks are highlighted, both conceptually and econometrically. Additionally, using real-world claims data from a large US health insurer, alternative QR frameworks are implemented to assess the differential impacts of covariates along the distribution of medication adherence among elderly patients with Alzheimer's disease. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

On accommodating spatial interactions in a Generalized Heterogeneous Data Model (GHDM) of mixed types of dependent variables.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2015-12-01

We develop an econometric framework for incorporating spatial dependence in integrated model systems of latent variables and multidimensional mixed data outcomes. The framework combines Bhats Generalized Heterogeneous Data Model (GHDM) with a spat...

David Keyser | NREL

Science.gov Websites

. Areas of Expertise Economic impact studies Time series analysis Analysis of labor and demographic data Research Interests Static and dynamic economic impact models Labor data estimation Econometric modeling and 2030: A Strategic Roadmap for American Energy Innovation, Economic Growth, and Competitiveness."

A statistical analysis of the effects of a uniform minimum drinking age

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1987-04-01

This report examines the relationship between minimum drinking age (MDA) and : highway fatalities during the 1975-1985 period, when 35 states changed their : MDAs. An econometric model of fatalities involving the 18-20 year-old driver : normalized by...

SPATIAL STATISTICS AND ECONOMETRICS FOR MODELS IN FISHERIES ECONOMICS. (R828012)

EPA Science Inventory

The perspectives, information and conclusions conveyed in research project abstracts, progress reports, final reports, journal abstracts and journal publications convey the viewpoints of the principal investigator and may not represent the views and policies of ORD and EPA. Concl...

The Determinants of Library Subscription Prices of the Top-Ranked Economics Journals: An Econometric Analysis.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chressanthis, George A.; Chressanthis, June D.

1994-01-01

Asserts that subscription price increases for academic journals have been the area of single greatest concern to librarians during the past decade. Finds that systematic variations in library prices across economics journals offer explainable reasons. (CFR)

Airborne incidents : an econometric analysis of severity, December 19, 2014 : Final report

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-12-19

Airborne loss of separation incidents occur when an aircraft breaches the defined separation limit (vertical and/or horizontal) with another aircraft or terrain imposed by Air Traffic Control. Identifying conditions that lead to more severe loss of s...

A Framework for Restructuring the Military Retirement System

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-07-01

Associate Professor of Economics in the Social Sciences Department at West Point where he teaches econometrics and labor economics. His areas of...others worth considering, but each should be carefully benchmarked against our proposed framework. 25 ENDNOTES 1. Office of the Actuary , Statistical

78 FR 63267 - Self-Regulatory Organizations; The Options Clearing Corporation; Notice of No Objection to...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-10-23

... the set of risk factors whose behavior is included in the econometric models underlying STANS, time series of proportional changes in implied volatilities for a range of tenors and in-the-money and out-of...

Eliminating Problems Caused by Multicollinearity: A Warning.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kennedy, Peter E.

1982-01-01

Explains why an econometric practice introduced by J.C. Soper cannot eliminate the problems caused by multicollinearity. The author suggests that it can be a useful technique in that it forces researchers to pay more attention to the specifications of their models. (AM)

Adaptability of Irrigation to a Changing Monsoon in India: How far can we go?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zaveri, E.; Grogan, D. S.; Fisher-Vanden, K.; Frolking, S. E.; Wrenn, D. H.; Nicholas, R.

2014-12-01

Agriculture and the monsoon are inextricably linked in India. A large part of the steady rise in agricultural production since the onset of the Green Revolution in the 1960's has been attributed to irrigation. Irrigation is used to supplement and buffer crops against precipitation shocks, but water availability for such use is itself sensitive to the erratic, seasonal and spatially heterogeneous nature of the monsoon. We provide new evidence on the relationship between monsoon changes, irrigation variability and water availability by linking a process based hydrology model with an econometric model for one of the world's most water stressed countries. India uses more groundwater for irrigation than any other country, and there is substantial evidence that this has led to depletion of groundwater aquifers. First, we build an econometric model of historical irrigation decisions using detailed agriculture and weather data spanning 35 years. Multivariate regression models reveal that for crops grown in the wet season, irrigation is sensitive to distribution and total monsoon rainfall but not to ground or surface water availability. For crops grown in the dry season, total monsoon rainfall matters most, and its effect is sensitive to groundwater availability. The historical estimates from the econometric model are used to calculate future irrigated areas under three different climate model predictions of monsoon climate for the years 2010 - 2050. These projections are then used as input to a physical hydrology model, which quantifies supply of irrigation water from sustainable sources such as rechargeable shallow groundwater, rivers and reservoirs, to unsustainable sources such as non- rechargeable groundwater. We find that the significant variation in monsoon projections lead to very different results. Crops grown in the dry season show particularly divergent trends between model projections, leading to very different groundwater resource requirements.

Industrial companies' demand for energy based on a micro panel database -- Effects of CO{sub 2} taxation and agreements on energy savings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bjoerner, T.B.; Togeby, M.

1999-07-01

An econometric panel data analysis of industrial demand for electricity and energy is presented. In the panel energy consumption, production and value added are observed at company level. The authors estimate price and production elasticities for electricity and total energy (i.e. measuring the X per cent change in demand of say electricity of a one per cent increase in the price of electricity). The estimated price and production elasticities are allowed to vary according to company characteristics such as industrial sub-sector, company size, energy intensity and type of ownership. Most previous econometric studies on industrial energy demand use aggregate data,more » while a couple of micro level studies mainly employ cross-section analysis. To the knowledge this is only the second econometric study on industrial energy demand based on a large micro panel database. More than 2,700 Danish industrial companies during the period 1983 to 1995 are included in the model (covering the majority of all Danish industrial energy consumption). One advantage of micro data is that these data can be used to estimate the effect of an instrument like voluntary energy agreements. By entering a voluntary energy agreement a Danish company avoids paying the usual CO{sub 2} tax. Preliminary analyses suggest that there is a large positive gross reduction of electricity and total energy consumption of companies with energy agreements. However, the authors also find that companies would have had about the same reduction in electricity consumption if they had not entered into an agreement, but instead paid the full CO{sub 2} tax. Thus, the analysis suggests that the net effect on electricity use of the voluntary energy agreements is very low (perhaps even negative).« less

Judging Statistical Models of Individual Decision Making under Risk Using In- and Out-of-Sample Criteria

PubMed Central

Drichoutis, Andreas C.; Lusk, Jayson L.

2014-01-01

Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample. PMID:25029467

Judging statistical models of individual decision making under risk using in- and out-of-sample criteria.

PubMed

Drichoutis, Andreas C; Lusk, Jayson L

2014-01-01

Despite the fact that conceptual models of individual decision making under risk are deterministic, attempts to econometrically estimate risk preferences require some assumption about the stochastic nature of choice. Unfortunately, the consequences of making different assumptions are, at present, unclear. In this paper, we compare three popular error specifications (Fechner, contextual utility, and Luce error) for three different preference functionals (expected utility, rank-dependent utility, and a mixture of those two) using in- and out-of-sample selection criteria. We find drastically different inferences about structural risk preferences across the competing functionals and error specifications. Expected utility theory is least affected by the selection of the error specification. A mixture model combining the two conceptual models assuming contextual utility provides the best fit of the data both in- and out-of-sample.

The Determinants of College Student Retention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Guerrero, Adam A.

2010-01-01

This study attempts to add to the college student dropout literature by examining persistence decisions at private, non-selective university using previously unstudied explanatory variables and advanced econometric methods. Three main contributions are provided. First, proprietary data obtained from a type of university that is underrepresented in…

47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

47 CFR 1.363 - Introduction of statistical data.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... case of sample surveys, there shall be a clear description of the survey design, including the... evidence in common carrier hearing proceedings, including but not limited to sample surveys, econometric... description of the experimental design shall be set forth, including a specification of the controlled...

Analytic Methods for Adjusting Subjective Rating Schemes.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Richard V. L.; Nelson, Gary R.

Statistical and econometric techniques of correcting for supervisor bias in models of individual performance appraisal were developed, using a variant of the classical linear regression model. Location bias occurs when individual performance is systematically overestimated or underestimated, while scale bias results when raters either exaggerate…

Groundwater economics: An object-oriented foundation for integrated studies of irrigated agricultural systems

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

Demand for health care in Denmark: results of a national sample survey using contingent valuation.

PubMed

Gyldmark, M; Morrison, G C

2001-10-01

In this paper we use willingness to pay (WTP) to elicit values for private insurance covering treatment for four different health problems. By way of obtaining these values, we test the viability of the contingent valuation method (CVM) and econometric techniques, respectively, as means of eliciting and analysing values from the general public. WTP responses from a Danish national sample survey, which was designed in accordance with existing guidelines, are analysed in terms of consistency and validity checks. Large numbers of zero responses are common in WTP studies, and are found here; therefore, the Heckman selectivity model and log-transformed OLS are employed. The selectivity model is rejected, but test results indicate that the lognormal model yields efficient and unbiased estimates. The results give confidence in the WTP estimates obtained and, more generally, in CVM as a means of valuing publicly provided goods and in econometrics as a tool for analysing WTP results containing many zero responses.

Waste production and regional growth of marine activities an econometric model.

PubMed

Bramati, Maria Caterina

2016-11-15

Coastal regions are characterized by intense human activity and climatic pressures, often intensified by competing interests in the use of marine waters. To assess the effect of public spending on the regional economy, an econometric model is here proposed. Not only are the regional investment and the climatic risks included in the model, but also variables related to the anthropogenic pressure, such as population, economic activities and waste production. Feedback effects of economic and demographic expansion on the pollution of coastal areas are also considered. It is found that dangerous waste increases with growing shipping and transportation activities and with growing population density in non-touristic coastal areas. On the other hand, the amount of non-dangerous wastes increases with marine mining, defense and offshore energy production activities. However, lower waste production occurs in areas where aquaculture and touristic industry are more exploited, and accompanied by increasing regional investment in waste disposal. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projected electric power demands for the Potomac Electric Power Company. Volume 1

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Estomin, S.; Kahal, M.

1984-03-01

This three-volume report presents the results of an econometric forecast of peak and electric power demands for the Potomac Electric Power Company (PEPCO) through the year 2002. Volume I describes the methodology, the results of the econometric estimations, the forecast assumptions and the calculated forecasts of peak demand and energy usage. Separate sets of models were developed for the Maryland Suburbs (Montgomery and Prince George's counties), the District of Columbia and Southern Maryland (served by a wholesale customer of PEPCO). For each of the three jurisdictions, energy equations were estimated for residential and commercial/industrial customers for both summer and wintermore » seasons. For the District of Columbia, summer and winter equations for energy sales to the federal government were also estimated. Equations were also estimated for street lighting and energy losses. Noneconometric techniques were employed to forecast energy sales to the Northern Virginia suburbs, Metrorail and federal government facilities located in Maryland.« less

Adaptive Elastic Net for Generalized Methods of Moments.

PubMed

Caner, Mehmet; Zhang, Hao Helen

2014-01-30

Model selection and estimation are crucial parts of econometrics. This paper introduces a new technique that can simultaneously estimate and select the model in generalized method of moments (GMM) context. The GMM is particularly powerful for analyzing complex data sets such as longitudinal and panel data, and it has wide applications in econometrics. This paper extends the least squares based adaptive elastic net estimator of Zou and Zhang (2009) to nonlinear equation systems with endogenous variables. The extension is not trivial and involves a new proof technique due to estimators lack of closed form solutions. Compared to Bridge-GMM of Caner (2009), we allow for the number of parameters to diverge to infinity as well as collinearity among a large number of variables, also the redundant parameters set to zero via a data dependent technique. This method has the oracle property, meaning that we can estimate nonzero parameters with their standard limit and the redundant parameters are dropped from the equations simultaneously. Numerical examples are used to illustrate the performance of the new method.

Three Essays on Renewable Energy Policy and its Effects on Fossil Fuel Generation in Electricity Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowen, Eric

In this dissertation, I investigate the effectiveness of renewable policies and consider their impact on electricity markets. The common thread of this research is to understand how renewable policy incentivizes renewable generation and how the increasing share of generation from renewables affects generation from fossil fuels. This type of research is crucial for understanding whether policies to promote renewables are meeting their stated goals and what the unintended effects might be. To this end, I use econometric methods to examine how electricity markets are responding to an influx of renewable energy. My dissertation is composed of three interrelated essays. In Chapter 1, I employ recent scholarship in spatial econometrics to assess the spatial dependence of Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS), a prominent state-based renewable incentive. In Chapter 2, I explore the impact of the rapid rise in renewable generation on short-run generation from fossil fuels. And in Chapter 3, I assess the impact of renewable penetration on coal plant retirement decisions.

Travel cost demand model based river recreation benefit estimates with on-site and household surveys: Comparative results and a correction procedure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Loomis, John

2003-04-01

Past recreation studies have noted that on-site or visitor intercept surveys are subject to over-sampling of avid users (i.e., endogenous stratification) and have offered econometric solutions to correct for this. However, past papers do not estimate the empirical magnitude of the bias in benefit estimates with a real data set, nor do they compare the corrected estimates to benefit estimates derived from a population sample. This paper empirically examines the magnitude of the recreation benefits per trip bias by comparing estimates from an on-site river visitor intercept survey to a household survey. The difference in average benefits is quite large, with the on-site visitor survey yielding 24 per day trip, while the household survey yields 9.67 per day trip. A simple econometric correction for endogenous stratification in our count data model lowers the benefit estimate to $9.60 per day trip, a mean value nearly identical and not statistically different from the household survey estimate.

Modeling the assessment of the economic factors impact on the development of social entrepreneurship

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Absalyamov, T.; Kundakchyan, R.; Zulfakarova, L.; Zapparova, Z.

2017-12-01

The article deals with the research of modern trends in the development of social entrepreneurship in Russia. The results of the research allow the authors to identify a system of factors that affect the development of entrepreneurship in the modern Russian economy. Moreover, the authors argue the regional specificity of the development of social entrepreneurship. The paper considers specific features and formulates the main limitations of the development of entrepreneurship and the competitive environment in the social sphere. The authors suggest an econometric model for assessing the influence of economic factors on the development of socially-oriented entrepreneurship and present an algorithm for calculating its components. The results of the econometric analysis identify the main factors of the change in the performance indicators of entrepreneurial activity and determine the degree of their impact on social entrepreneurship. The results and conclusions can serve as an estimation of the socioeconomic consequences of the sustainability disruption of the entrepreneurial potential realization in the social sphere.

Public budgets for energy RD&D and the effects on energy intensity and pollution levels.

PubMed

Balsalobre, Daniel; Álvarez, Agustín; Cantos, José María

2015-04-01

This study, based on the N-shaped cubic model of the environmental Kuznets curve, analyzes the evolution of per capita greenhouse gas emissions (GHGpc) using not just economic growth but also public budgets dedicated to energy-oriented research development and demonstration (RD&D) and energy intensity. The empirical evidence, obtained from an econometric model of fixed effects for 28 OECD countries during 1994-2010, suggests that energy innovations help reduce GHGpc levels and mitigate the negative impact of energy intensity on environmental quality. When countries develop active energy RD&D policies, they can reduce both the rates of energy intensity and the level of GHGpc emissions. This paper incorporates a moderating variable to the econometric model that emphasizes the effect that GDP has on energy intensity. It also adds a variable that reflects the difference between countries that have made a greater economic effort in energy RD&D, which in turn corrects the GHG emissions resulting from the energy intensity of each country.

Incomes, Attitudes, and Occurrences of Invasive Species: An Application to Signal Crayfish in Sweden

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gren, Ing-Marie; Campos, Monica; Edsman, Lennart; Bohman, Patrik

2009-02-01

This article analyzes and carries out an econometric test of the explanatory power of economic and attitude variables for occurrences of the nonnative signal crayfish in Swedish waters. Signal crayfish are a carrier of plague which threatens the native noble crayfish with extinction. Crayfish are associated with recreational and cultural traditions in Sweden, which may run against environmental preferences for preserving native species. Econometric analysis is carried out using panel data at the municipality level with economic factors and attitudes as explanatory variables, which are derived from a simple dynamic harvesting model. A log-normal model is used for the regression analysis, and the results indicate significant impacts on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish of changes in both economic and attitude variables. Variables reflecting environmental and recreational preferences have unexpected signs, where the former variable has a positive and the latter a negative impact on occurrences of waters with signal crayfish. These effects are, however, counteracted by their respective interaction effect with income.

Children's weight and participation in organized sports.

PubMed

Quinto Romani, Annette

2011-11-01

Literature dealing with the impact of organized sports on children's weight has been marked by a lack of consensus. A major weakness characterizing most of this research is a lack of proper measurement methods. This paper seeks to fill an important knowledge gap through careful application of econometric methods. Estimations are carried out using data on 1,400 children attending 6th grade in 2008 in the municipality of Aalborg, Denmark. We use standard ordinary least squares (OLS) and class fixed effects to explore the effect of sports participation on body mass index (BMI) as well as underweight, overweight and obesity. Results indicate that participation in organized sports reduced BMI by 2.1%. Likewise it reduced the likelihood of being overweight by 8.2 percentage points and obese by 3.1 percentage points. It is the unique dataset combined with econometric methods that distinguishes our contribution from that of others in the field, thereby offering new insight. Results using statistically sound methods suggest that participation in organized sports has a beneficial effect on children's weight.

The Impact of Services on Economic Complexity: Service Sophistication as Route for Economic Growth.

PubMed

Stojkoski, Viktor; Utkovski, Zoran; Kocarev, Ljupco

2016-01-01

Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. By combining tools from network science and econometrics, a robust and stable relationship between a country's productive structure and its economic growth has been established. Here we report that not only goods but also services are important for predicting the rate at which countries will grow. By adopting a terminology which classifies manufactured goods and delivered services as products, we investigate the influence of services on the country's productive structure. In particular, we provide evidence that complexity indices for services are in general higher than those for goods, which is reflected in a general tendency to rank countries with developed service sector higher than countries with economy centred on manufacturing of goods. By focusing on country dynamics based on experimental data, we investigate the impact of services on the economic complexity of countries measured in the product space (consisting of both goods and services). Importantly, we show that diversification of service exports and its sophistication can provide an additional route for economic growth in both developing and developed countries.

The Impact of Services on Economic Complexity: Service Sophistication as Route for Economic Growth

PubMed Central

Utkovski, Zoran; Kocarev, Ljupco

2016-01-01

Economic complexity reflects the amount of knowledge that is embedded in the productive structure of an economy. By combining tools from network science and econometrics, a robust and stable relationship between a country’s productive structure and its economic growth has been established. Here we report that not only goods but also services are important for predicting the rate at which countries will grow. By adopting a terminology which classifies manufactured goods and delivered services as products, we investigate the influence of services on the country’s productive structure. In particular, we provide evidence that complexity indices for services are in general higher than those for goods, which is reflected in a general tendency to rank countries with developed service sector higher than countries with economy centred on manufacturing of goods. By focusing on country dynamics based on experimental data, we investigate the impact of services on the economic complexity of countries measured in the product space (consisting of both goods and services). Importantly, we show that diversification of service exports and its sophistication can provide an additional route for economic growth in both developing and developed countries. PMID:27560133

Companions and competitors: Joint metal-supply relationships in gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc mines

DOE PAGES

Jordan, Brett Watson

2017-06-03

Firms that extract and produce multiple metals are an important component of mineral supply. The reaction of such firms to changes in their relevant output prices is tested econometrically for five metals using a panel representing more than 100 mines across the time period 1991-2005. Here, the estimation strategy is drawn from joint production theory, namely a flexible form, dual revenue approach with seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) estimation. The results indicate that multi-product mines respond (in the short run) to higher prices of a particular metal by reducing output of that metal (indicative of low-grading behavior) and increasing and/or decreasingmore » output of joint metal products (indicative of substitutes and complements in supply). As a result, the price responses are not readily explained by a metal's classification as a by-product or main product based on revenue.« less

Load balancing for massively-parallel soft-real-time systems

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hailperin, M.

1988-09-01

Global load balancing, if practical, would allow the effective use of massively-parallel ensemble architectures for large soft-real-problems. The challenge is to replace quick global communications, which is impractical in a massively-parallel system, with statistical techniques. In this vein, the author proposes a novel approach to decentralized load balancing based on statistical time-series analysis. Each site estimates the system-wide average load using information about past loads of individual sites and attempts to equal that average. This estimation process is practical because the soft-real-time systems of interest naturally exhibit loads that are periodic, in a statistical sense akin to seasonality in econometrics.more » It is shown how this load-characterization technique can be the foundation for a load-balancing system in an architecture employing cut-through routing and an efficient multicast protocol.« less

Companions and competitors: Joint metal-supply relationships in gold, silver, copper, lead and zinc mines

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jordan, Brett Watson

Firms that extract and produce multiple metals are an important component of mineral supply. The reaction of such firms to changes in their relevant output prices is tested econometrically for five metals using a panel representing more than 100 mines across the time period 1991-2005. Here, the estimation strategy is drawn from joint production theory, namely a flexible form, dual revenue approach with seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR) estimation. The results indicate that multi-product mines respond (in the short run) to higher prices of a particular metal by reducing output of that metal (indicative of low-grading behavior) and increasing and/or decreasingmore » output of joint metal products (indicative of substitutes and complements in supply). As a result, the price responses are not readily explained by a metal's classification as a by-product or main product based on revenue.« less

Uncertainty in forecasts of long-run economic growth.

PubMed

Christensen, P; Gillingham, K; Nordhaus, W

2018-05-22

Forecasts of long-run economic growth are critical inputs into policy decisions being made today on the economy and the environment. Despite its importance, there is a sparse literature on long-run forecasts of economic growth and the uncertainty in such forecasts. This study presents comprehensive probabilistic long-run projections of global and regional per-capita economic growth rates, comparing estimates from an expert survey and a low-frequency econometric approach. Our primary results suggest a median 2010-2100 global growth rate in per-capita gross domestic product of 2.1% per year, with a standard deviation (SD) of 1.1 percentage points, indicating substantially higher uncertainty than is implied in existing forecasts. The larger range of growth rates implies a greater likelihood of extreme climate change outcomes than is currently assumed and has important implications for social insurance programs in the United States.

Simulating Quantile Models with Applications to Economics and Management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Machado, José A. F.

2010-05-01

The massive increase in the speed of computers over the past forty years changed the way that social scientists, applied economists and statisticians approach their trades and also the very nature of the problems that they could feasibly tackle. The new methods that use intensively computer power go by the names of "computer-intensive" or "simulation". My lecture will start with bird's eye view of the uses of simulation in Economics and Statistics. Then I will turn out to my own research on uses of computer- intensive methods. From a methodological point of view the question I address is how to infer marginal distributions having estimated a conditional quantile process, (Counterfactual Decomposition of Changes in Wage Distributions using Quantile Regression," Journal of Applied Econometrics 20, 2005). Illustrations will be provided of the use of the method to perform counterfactual analysis in several different areas of knowledge.

The effect of the water tariff structures on the water consumption in Mallorcan hotels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Deyà-Tortella, Bartolomé; Garcia, Celso; Nilsson, William; Tirado, Dolores

2016-08-01

Tourism increases water demand, especially in coastal areas and on islands, and can also cause water shortages during the dry season and the degradation of the water supply. The aim of this study is to evaluate the impact of water price structures on hotel water consumption on the island of Mallorca (Spain). All tourist municipalities on the island use different pricing structures, such as flat or block rates, and different tariffs. This exogenous variation is used to evaluate the effect of prices on water consumption for a sample of 134 hotels. The discontinuity of the water tariff structure and the fixed rate, which depends on the number of hotel beds, generate endogeneity problems. We propose an econometric model, an instrumental variable quantile regression for within artificial blocks transformed data, to solve both problems. The coefficients corresponding to the price variables are not found to be significantly different from zero. The sign of the effect is negative, but the magnitude is negligible: a 1% increase in all prices would reduce consumption by an average of only 0.024%. This result is probably due to the small share of water costs with respect to the total hotel operational costs (around 4%). Our regression model concludes that the introduction of water-saving initiatives constitutes an effective way to reduce consumption.

Does Peer Ability Affect Student Achievement?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hanushek, Eric A.; Kain, John F.; Markman, Jacob M.; Rivkin, Steven G.

Empirical analysis of peer effects on student achievement has been open to question because of the difficulties of separating peer effects from other confounding influences. While most econometric attention has been directed at issues of simultaneous determination of peer interactions, this paper argues that issues of omitted and mismeasured…

Energy Models and the Policy Process.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

De Man, Reinier

1983-01-01

Describes the function of econometric and technological models in the policy process, and shows how different positions in the Dutch energy discussion are reflected by the application of different model methodologies. Discussion includes the energy policy context, a conceptual framework for using energy models, and energy scenarios in policy…

The Ontology of Science Teaching in the Neoliberal Era

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sharma, Ajay

2017-01-01

Because of ever stricter standards of accountability, science teachers are under an increasing and unrelenting pressure to demonstrate the effects of their teaching on student learning. Econometric perspectives of "teacher quality" have become normative in assessment of teachers' work for accountability purposes. These perspectives seek…

Evaluating the Flipped Classroom: A Randomized Controlled Trial

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wozny, Nathan; Balser, Cary; Ives, Drew

2018-01-01

Despite recent interest in flipped classrooms, rigorous research evaluating their effectiveness is sparse. In this study, the authors implement a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effect of a flipped classroom technique relative to a traditional lecture in an introductory undergraduate econometrics course. Random assignment enables the…

76 FR 11195 - Request for Nominations of Members To Serve on the Census Scientific Advisory Committee

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-03-01

..., econometrics, cognitive psychology, and computer science as they pertain to the full range of Census Bureau... technical expertise from the following disciplines: demography, economics, geography, psychology, statistics..., psychology, statistics, survey methodology, social and behavioral sciences, Information Technology, computing...

Effect of fare and travel time on the demand for domestic air transportation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Eriksen, S. E.; Liu, E. W.

1979-01-01

An econometric travel demand model was presented. The model was used for analyzing long haul domestic passenger markets in the United States. The results showed the sensitivities of demand to changes in fares and speed reflecting technology through more efficient aircraft designs.

Motor Vehicle Demand Models : Assessment of the State of the Art and Directions for Future Research

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1981-04-01

The report provides an assessment of the current state of motor vehicle demand modeling. It includes a detailed evaluation of one leading large-scale econometric vehicle demand model, which is tested for both logical consistency and forecasting accur...

An empirical investigation of spatial differentiation and price floor regulations in retail markets for gasoline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Houde, Jean-Francois

In the first essay of this dissertation, I study an empirical model of spatial competition. The main feature of my approach is to formally specify commuting paths as the "locations" of consumers in a Hotelling-type model of spatial competition. The main consequence of this location assumption is that the substitution patterns between stations depend in an intuitive way on the structure of the road network and the direction of traffic flows. The demand-side of the model is estimated by combining a model of traffic allocation with econometric techniques used to estimate models of demand for differentiated products (Berry, Levinsohn and Pakes (1995)). The estimated parameters are then used to evaluate the importance of commuting patterns in explaining the distribution of gasoline sales, and compare the economic predictions of the model with the standard home-location model. In the second and third essays, I examine empirically the effect of a price floor regulation on the dynamic and static equilibrium outcomes of the gasoline retail industry. In particular, in the second essay I study empirically the dynamic entry and exit decisions of gasoline stations, and measure the impact of a price floor on the continuation values of staying in the industry. In the third essay, I develop and estimate a static model of quantity competition subject to a price floor regulation. Both models are estimated using a rich panel dataset on the Quebec gasoline retail market before and after the implementation of a price floor regulation.

Three Studies in Industrial Economics: Competition and Industry Structure

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keil, Jan

Chapter 1 reviews alternative theories of competition - the standard Neoclassical view, the contribution of the Chicago School as well as the two dynamic lines of thought which are part of Austrian economics and Classical Political Economy. The latter is presented as a consistent alternative to the other existing theories. Of special interest is the question if and how industry structure matters in these approaches, how profitability differentials are explained and what role market share concentration and mobility barriers play. Their predictions and implications for empirical research are compared. Ways to test and evaluate these different approaches are described. Chapter 2 investigates econometrically how industry and micro level variables determine persistent differentials in the rate of return on assets in the U.S. The analysis is the first to use business segment data to explain long term profitability differentials. It presents new market concentration indicators that are superior to concentration ratios and allow to analyze an unpreceded amount of concentration and other data back to 1977. Critical concentration levels, non-linearities, interaction effects and previously ignored important control variables like industrial unionization are being considered. Concentration is found to have significant negative effects on profitability differentials. Barrier indicators are insignificant while market shares are positively correlated with long-run profitability. Concentration thus increases, not diminishes the degree of industrial competition. This is interpreted as evidence in support of Classical Political Economic competition theory. Chapter 3 presents a costs of production based industry analytical study that aims at consistency with Classical Political Economic thought. It investigates how growth of renewable electricity in Germany forces conventional power plants to shift towards more flexible operating regimes. The simulation of individual power plant load uses different current and future as well as alternative price and energy policy scenarios, four years of 15-minute interval data on system and renewable load as well as an unpreceded degree of detail on plant cost structures and technical characteristics. I find that the costs of electricity generation of cleaner, flexible thermal plants are positively effected by the transition. The competitiveness of inflexible baseload plants falls as they become more expensive than renewables. Lignite and nuclear power turns out to be unsuited to supplement renewable energy: a future exit reduces the average costs of electricity generation from conventional plants.

CO2 emissions, natural gas and renewables, economic growth: Assessing the evidence from China.

PubMed

Dong, Kangyin; Sun, Renjin; Dong, Xiucheng

2018-05-31

This study aims to test the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in China by developing a new framework based on the suggestion of Narayan and Narayan (2010). The dynamic effect of natural gas and renewable energy consumption on CO 2 emissions is also analyzed. Considering the structural break observed in the sample, a series of econometric techniques allowing for structural breaks is utilized for the period 1965-2016. The empirical results confirm the existence of the EKC for CO 2 emissions in China. Furthermore, in both the long-run and the short-run, the beneficial effects of natural gas and renewables on CO 2 emission reduction are observable. In addition, the mitigation effect of natural gas on CO 2 emissions will be weakened over time, while renewables will become progressively more important. Finally, policy suggestions are highlighted not only for mitigating CO 2 emissions, but also for promoting growth in the natural gas and renewable energy industries. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Incorporating shared savings programs into primary care: from theory to practice.

PubMed

Hayen, Arthur P; van den Berg, Michael J; Meijboom, Bert R; Struijs, Jeroen N; Westert, Gert P

2015-12-30

In several countries, health care policies gear toward strengthening the position of primary care physicians. Primary care physicians are increasingly expected to take accountability for overall spending and quality. Yet traditional models of paying physicians do not provide adequate incentives for taking on this new role. Under a so-called shared savings program physicians are instead incentivized to take accountability for spending and quality, as the program lets them share in cost savings when quality targets are met. We provide a structured approach to designing a shared savings program for primary care, and apply this approach to the design of a shared savings program for a Dutch chain of primary care providers, which is currently being piloted. Based on the literature, we defined five building blocks of shared savings models that encompass the definition of the scope of the program, the calculation of health care expenditures, the construction of a savings benchmark, the assessment of savings and the rules and conditions under which savings are shared. We apply insights from a variety of literatures to assess the relative merits of alternative design choices within these building blocks. The shared savings program uses an econometric model of provider expenditures as an input to calculating a casemix-corrected benchmark. The minimization of risk and uncertainty for both payer and provider is pertinent to the design of a shared savings program. In that respect, the primary care setting provides a number of unique opportunities for achieving cost and quality targets. Accountability can more readily be assumed due to the relatively long-lasting relationships between primary care physicians and patients. A stable population furthermore improves the confidence with which savings can be attributed to changes in population management. Challenges arise from the institutional context. The Dutch health care system has a fragmented structure and providers are typically small in size. Shared savings programs fit the concept of enhanced primary care. Incorporating a shared savings program into existing payment models could therefore contribute to the financial sustainability of this organizational form.

The association between county political inclination and obesity: Results from the 2012 presidential election in the United States.

PubMed

Shin, Michael E; McCarthy, William J

2013-11-01

We examined whether stable, county-level, voter preferences were significantly associated with county-level obesity prevalence using data from the 2012 US Presidential election. County voting preference for the 2012 Republican Party presidential candidate was used as a proxy for voter endorsement of personal responsibility approaches to reducing population obesity risk versus approaches featuring government-sponsored, multi-sectoral efforts like those recommended by the Centers for Disease Control Centers for Disease Control (CDC, 2009). Cartographic visualization and spatial analysis were used to evaluate the geographic clustering of obesity prevalence rates by county, and county-level support for the Republican Party candidate in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. The spatial analysis informed the spatial econometric approach employed to model the relationship between political preferences and other covariates with obesity prevalence. After controlling for poverty rate, percent African American and Latino populations, educational attainment, and spatial autocorrelation in the error term, we found that higher county-level obesity prevalence rates were associated with higher levels of support for the 2012 Republican Party presidential candidate. Future public health efforts to understand and reduce obesity risk may benefit from increased surveillance of this and similar linkages between political preferences and health risks. © 2013.

Assessing floods and droughts in the Mékrou River basin (West Africa): a combined household survey and climatic trends analysis approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Markantonis, Vasileios; Farinosi, Fabio; Dondeynaz, Celine; Ameztoy, Iban; Pastori, Marco; Marletta, Luca; Ali, Abdou; Carmona Moreno, Cesar

2018-05-01

The assessment of natural hazards such as floods and droughts is a complex issue that demands integrated approaches and high-quality data. Especially in African developing countries, where information is limited, the assessment of floods and droughts, though an overarching issue that influences economic and social development, is even more challenging. This paper presents an integrated approach to assessing crucial aspects of floods and droughts in the transboundary Mékrou River basin (a portion of the Niger River basin in West Africa), combining climatic trends analysis and the findings of a household survey. The multivariable trend analysis estimates, at the biophysical level, the climate variability and the occurrence of floods and droughts. These results are coupled with an analysis of household survey data that reveals the behaviour and opinions of local residents regarding the observed climate variability and occurrence of flood and drought events, household mitigation measures, and the impacts of floods and droughts. Based on survey data analysis, the paper provides a per-household cost estimation of floods and droughts that occurred over a 2-year period (2014-2015). Furthermore, two econometric models are set up to identify the factors that influence the costs of floods and droughts to impacted households.

A Note on Verification of Computer Simulation Models

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aigner, Dennis J.

1972-01-01

Establishes an argument that questions the validity of one test'' of goodness-of-fit (the extent to which a series of obtained measures agrees with a series of theoretical measures) for the simulated time path of a simple endogenous (internally developed) variable in a simultaneous, perhaps dynamic econometric model. (Author)

The Cost-Effectiveness of Raising Teacher Quality

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yeh, Stuart S.

2009-01-01

Econometric studies suggest that student achievement may be improved if high-performing teachers are substituted for low-performing teachers. Drawing upon a recent study linking teacher performance on licensure exams with gains in student achievement, an analysis was conducted to determine the cost-effectiveness of requiring teacher applicants to…

Schools and Labor Market Outcomes. EQW Working Papers WP33.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crawford, David L.; And Others

The relationship between school characteristics and labor market outcomes was examined through a literature review and an econometric analysis of the effects of various characteristics of the schooling experience on students' labor market performance after high school. Data from the National Center on Education Statistics' longitudinal survey of…

Energy Conservation for Low-Income Households: The Evaporative Cooler Experience.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ridge, Richard S.

1988-01-01

An econometric analysis, using a research design based on the nonequivalent control group (NECG), assessed the effectiveness of a program offering free evaporative coolers to low-income families owning air conditioners. The NECG controls for serious threats to internal validity, except for self-selection. The program successfully reduced energy…

77 FR 71788 - Notice of Change to the Publication of Natural Gas Wellhead Prices

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-12-04

... gas wellhead price using a time-series econometric model, which incorporates data from historical... (DOE). ACTION: Notice of a discontinuation of series in the publication of natural gas wellhead prices... price series. Beginning in January 2013, EIA will discontinue publishing wellhead prices, and will begin...

Spatial analysis of rural land development

Treesearch

Seong-Hoon Cho; David H. Newman

2005-01-01

This article examines patterns of rural land development and density using spatial econometric models with the application of Geographical Information System (GIS). The cluster patterns of both development and high-density development indicate that the spatially continuous expansions of development and high-density development exist in relatively remote rural areas....

Duration Models to Analyze Dating Relationship: The Controversial Role of Gift Giving.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huang, Ming-Hui; Yu, Shihti

2000-01-01

Econometric duration models were used to analyze dating relationships of 225 college students. Using gifts to enhance the self, express love, and announce relationships helped ensure the success of relationships. Gifts that were too frequent or rare resulted in self-depreciation and anxiety and harmed relationships. (SK)

Interpreting Bivariate Regression Coefficients: Going beyond the Average

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halcoussis, Dennis; Phillips, G. Michael

2010-01-01

Statistics, econometrics, investment analysis, and data analysis classes often review the calculation of several types of averages, including the arithmetic mean, geometric mean, harmonic mean, and various weighted averages. This note shows how each of these can be computed using a basic regression framework. By recognizing when a regression model…

Teaching Students Not to Dismiss the Outermost Observations in Regressions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kasprowicz, Tomasz; Musumeci, Jim

2015-01-01

One econometric rule of thumb is that greater dispersion in observations of the independent variable improves estimates of regression coefficients and therefore produces better results, i.e., lower standard errors of the estimates. Nevertheless, students often seem to mistrust precisely the observations that contribute the most to this greater…

The Dynamics of Online User Behavior and IS Policy Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kim, Keehyung

2016-01-01

This dissertation, which comprises three independent essays, explores the dynamics of online user behavior and provides IS policy implications across three different applications. The first essay employs an econometric empirical analysis to examine the role of IT interventions on online users' gambling behavior, based on field data collected over…

Impact of Education on the Income of Different Social Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yue, Changjun; Liu, Yanping

2007-01-01

This study investigates, statistically and econometrically, the income level, income inequality, education inequality, and the relationship between education and income of different social groups, on the basis of the Chinese Urban Household Survey conducted in 2005, the Gini coefficient and the quartile regression method. Research findings…

The effects of impact fees in urban form and congestion in Florida for period 4/1/2010 to 11/30/2011.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2011-11-01

This study analyzes the effect of impact fees in urban form and congestion through a combination of methods including econometric analysis, GIS techniques, and interviews with planning officials. The results show that there is some evidence that impa...

Overskilling Dynamics and Education Pathways

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mavromaras, Kostas; McGuinness, Seamus

2012-01-01

This paper uses panel data and econometric methods to estimate the incidence and the dynamic properties of overskilling among employed individuals. The paper begins by asking whether there is extensive overskilling in the labour market, and whether overskilling differs by education pathway. The answer to both questions is yes. The paper continues…

A Research-Based Development Economics Course for Undergraduates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Singh, Prakarsh; Guo, Hongye; Morales, Alvaro

2015-01-01

The authors present details of a research-based course in development economics taught at a private liberal arts college. There were three key elements in this class: teaching of applied econometrics, group presentations reviewing published and working papers in development economics, and using concepts taught in class to write an original…

The Insulation Board Industry - An Economic Analysis

Treesearch

Albert T. Schuler

1978-01-01

An econometric model of the domestic insulation board industry was developed to identify and quantify the major factors affecting quantity consumed and price. The factors identified were housing starts, residential improvement activity, disposable personal income, productivity, pulpwood and residue prices, and power costs. Disposable personal income was the most...

An Econommetric Analysis of the U.S. Hardboard Market

Treesearch

Albert T. Schuler

1978-01-01

An econometric model of U.S. hardboard consumption was developed to identify the major variables affecting hardboard consumption and price. The variables identified were housing starts, residential improvement activity, disposable personal income, hardwood plywood price, productivity, pulpwood and residue price, hardboard tariff, and power cost, Disposable personal...

The Ph.D. Production Function: The Case at Berkeley.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breneman, David W.

This report analyzes departmental variations in time to degree and attrition in Ph.D. programs at Berkeley. An alternative hypothesis, the Ph.D. production function, is examined by cross-section econometric analysis of 28 departments. The inputs included in the production function were student variables--quality and percent males; faculty…

Household Schooling Decisions in Rural Pakistan. Working Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sawada, Yasuyuki; Lokshin, Michael

A study of household schooling decisions in rural Pakistan found serious supply-side constraints on female primary education in the villages studied. Field surveys of 25 Pakistani villages were integrated with economic theory and econometric analysis to investigate the sequential nature of educational decisions. The full-information maximum…

Value of Weather Information in Cranberry Marketing Decisions.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Morzuch, Bernard J.; Willis, Cleve E.

1982-04-01

Econometric techniques are used to establish a functional relationship between cranberry yields and important precipitation, temperature, and sunshine variables. Crop forecasts are derived from the model and are used to establish posterior probabilities to be used in a Bayesian decision context pertaining to leasing space for the storage of the berries.

Space-time modeling of timber prices

Treesearch

Mo Zhou; Joseph Buongriorno

2006-01-01

A space-time econometric model was developed for pine sawtimber timber prices of 21 geographically contiguous regions in the southern United States. The correlations between prices in neighboring regions helped predict future prices. The impulse response analysis showed that although southern pine sawtimber markets were not globally integrated, local supply and demand...

University-Industry Research Collaboration: A Model to Assess University Capability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abramo, Giovanni; D'Angelo, Ciriaco Andrea; Di Costa, Flavia

2011-01-01

Scholars and policy makers recognize that collaboration between industry and the public research institutions is a necessity for innovation and national economic development. This work presents an econometric model which expresses the university capability for collaboration with industry as a function of size, location and research quality. The…

The Determinants of Girls' Educational Enrollment in Ghana. Working Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, Rebecca; Kyle, Steven

This study examined the determinants of school enrollment in Ghana, considering historical and social information to formulate an econometric model of school enrollment patterns for households. Data came from a 1989 survey of households in Ghana. The survey collected basic information about community characteristics, health and school facilities,…

Groundwater response to changing water-use practices in sloping aquifers using convolution of transient response functions

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An integrated foundation is presented to study the impacts of external forcings on irrigated agricultural systems. Individually, models are presented that simulate groundwater hydrogeology and econometric farm level crop choices and irrigated water use. The natural association between groundwater we...

Statistical Cost Estimation in Higher Education: Some Alternatives.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brinkman, Paul T.; Niwa, Shelley

Recent developments in econometrics that are relevant to the task of estimating costs in higher education are reviewed. The relative effectiveness of alternative statistical procedures for estimating costs are also tested. Statistical cost estimation involves three basic parts: a model, a data set, and an estimation procedure. Actual data are used…

Impacts of terrain attributes on economics and the environment: Costs of reducing potential nitrogen pollution in wheat production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The economic cost of achieving desired environmental outcomes from uniform and variable rate fertilizer application technologies depends both on market forces and agronomic properties. Using spatial econometric methods, we analyze the impact of nitrogen fertilizer supply by terrain attribute on the...

Estimating School Efficiency: A Comparison of Methods Using Simulated Data.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bifulco, Robert; Bretschneider, Stuart

2001-01-01

Uses simulated data to assess the adequacy of two econometric and linear-programming techniques (data-envelopment analysis and corrected ordinary least squares) for measuring performance-based school reform. In complex data sets (simulated to contain measurement error and endogeneity), these methods are inadequate efficiency measures. (Contains 40…

Measuring Systematic Long-Term Trajectories of School Effectiveness Improvement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Valenzuela, Juan Pablo; Bellei, Cristián; Allende, Claudio

2016-01-01

The objective of this study was to identify trajectories of school improvement experienced by Chilean elementary schools over the last decade. Using econometric analysis and controlling for potential confounding factors, we created an index of school performance combining outcome indicators focused on different school dimensions, and estimated the…

Place of death and health care utilization for people in the last 6 months of life in Switzerland: a retrospective analysis using administrative data

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background There is a growing interest in examining the current state of care and identifying opportunities for improving care and reducing costs at the end of life. The aim of this study is to examine patterns of health care use at the end of life and place of death and to describe the basic characteristics of the decedents in the last six months of their life. Methods The empirical analysis is based on data from 58,732 Swiss residents who died between 2007 and 2011. All decedents had mandatory health insurance with Helsana Group, the largest health insurer in Switzerland. Descriptive statistical techniques were used to provide a general profile of the study population and determinants of the outcome for place of death were analyzed with an econometric approach. Results There were substantial and significant differences in health care utilization in the last six months of life between places of death. The mean numbers of consultations with a general practitioner or a specialist physician as well as the number of different medications and the number of hospital days was consistently highest for the decedents who died in a hospital. We found death occurred in Switzerland most frequently in hospitals (38.4% of all cases) followed by nursing homes (35.1%) and dying at home (26.6%). The econometric analysis indicated that the place of death is significantly associated with age, sex, region and multiple chronic conditions. Conclusions The importance of nursing homes and patients’ own homes as place of death will continue to grow in the future. Knowing the determinants of place of death and patterns of health care utilization of decedents can help decision makers on the allocation of these needed health care services in Switzerland. PMID:23530717

Economic Drought Impact on Agriculture: analysis of all agricultural sectors affected

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gil, M.; Garrido, A.; Hernández-Mora, N.

2012-04-01

The analysis of drought impacts is essential to define efficient and sustainable management and mitigation. In this paper we present a detailed analysis of the impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the agricultural sector in the Ebro river basin (Spain). An econometric model is applied in order to determine the magnitude of the economic loss attributable to water scarcity. Both the direct impacts of drought on agricultural productivity and the indirect impacts of drought on agricultural employment and agroindustry in the Ebro basin are evaluated. The econometric model measures losses in the economic value of irrigated and rainfed agricultural production, of agricultural employment and of Gross Value Added both from the agricultural sector and the agro-industrial sector. The explanatory variables include an index of water availability (reservoir storage levels for irrigated agriculture and accumulated rainfall for rainfed agriculture), a price index representative of the mix of crops grown in each region, and a time variable. The model allows for differentiating the impacts due to water scarcity from other sources of economic losses. Results show how the impacts diminish as we approach the macro-economic indicators from those directly dependent on water abstractions and precipitation. Sectors directly dependent on water are the most affected with identifiable economic losses resulting from the lack of water. From the management perspective implications of these findings are key to develop mitigation measures to reduce drought risk exposure. These results suggest that more open agricultural markets, and wider and more flexible procurement strategies of the agro-industry reduces the socio-economic exposure to drought cycles. This paper presents the results of research conducted under PREEMPT project (Policy relevant assessment of the socioeconomic effects of droughts and floods, ECHO - grant agreement # 070401/2010/579119/SUB/C4), which constitutes an effort to provide a comprehensive assessment of the socioeconomic impacts of the 2004-2008 drought in the Ebro river basin

Methodology for Evaluating Security Controls Based on Key Performance Indicators and Stakeholder Mission

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheldon, Frederick T; Abercrombie, Robert K; Mili, Ali

2009-01-01

Information security continues to evolve in response to disruptive changes with a persistent focus on information-centric controls and a healthy debate about balancing endpoint and network protection, with a goal of improved enterprise/business risk management. Economic uncertainty, intensively collaborative styles of work, virtualization, increased outsourcing and ongoing compliance pressures require careful consideration and adaptation. This paper proposes a Cyberspace Security Econometrics System (CSES) that provides a measure (i.e., a quantitative indication) of reliability, performance and/or safety of a system that accounts for the criticality of each requirement as a function of one or more stakeholders interests in that requirement. Formore » a given stakeholder, CSES reflects the variance that may exist among the stakes she/he attaches to meeting each requirement. This paper introduces the basis, objectives and capabilities for the CSES including inputs/outputs as well as the structural and mathematical underpinnings.« less

Do nonlinear dynamics in economics amount to a Kuhnian paradigm shift?

PubMed

Dore, Mohammed H I; Rosser, J Barkley

2007-01-01

Much empirical analysis and econometric work recognizes that there are nonlinearities, regime shifts or structural breaks, asymmetric adjustment costs, irreversibilities and lagged dependencies. Hence, empirical work has already transcended neoclassical economics. Some progress has also been made in modeling endogenously generated cyclical growth and fluctuations. All this is inconsistent with neoclassical general equilibrium. Hence there is growing evidence of Kuhnian anomalies. It therefore follows that there is a Kuhnian crisis in economics and further research in nonlinear dynamics and complexity can only increase the Kuhnian anomalies. This crisis can only deepen. However, there is an ideological commitment to general equilibrium that justifies "free enterprise" with only minimal state intervention that may still sustain neoclassical economics despite the growing evidence of Kuhnian anomalies. Thus, orthodox textbook theory continues to ignore this fact and static neoclassical theory remains a dogma with no apparent reformulation to replace it.

Facility-level outcome performance measures for nursing homes.

PubMed

Porell, F; Caro, F G

1998-12-01

Risk-adjusted nursing home performance scores were developed for four health outcomes and five quality indicators from resident-level longitudinal case-mix reimbursement data for Medicaid residents of more than 500 nursing homes in Massachusetts. Facility performance was measured by comparing actual resident outcomes with expected outcomes derived from quarterly predictions of resident-level econometric models over a 3-year period (1991-1994). Performance measures were tightly distributed among facilities in the state. The intercorrelations among the nine outcome performance measures were relatively low and not uniformly positive. Performance measures were not highly associated with various structural facility attributes. For most outcomes, longitudinal analyses revealed only modest correlations between a facility's performance score from one time period to the next. Relatively few facilities exhibited consistent superior or inferior performance over time. The findings have implications toward the practical use of facility outcome performance measures for quality assurance and reimbursement purposes in the near future.

Business cycles' correlation and systemic risk of the Japanese supplier-customer network.

PubMed

Krichene, Hazem; Chakraborty, Abhijit; Inoue, Hiroyasu; Fujiwara, Yoshi

2017-01-01

This work aims to study and explain the business cycle correlations of the Japanese production network. We consider the supplier-customer network, which is a directed network representing the trading links between Japanese firms (links from suppliers to customers). The community structure of this network is determined by applying the Infomap algorithm. Each community is defined by its GDP and its associated business cycle. Business cycle correlations between communities are estimated based on copula theory. Then, based on firms' attributes and network topology, these correlations are explained through linear econometric models. The results show strong evidence of business cycle correlations in the Japanese production network. A significant systemic risk is found for high negative or positive shocks. These correlations are explained mainly by the sector and by geographic similarities. Moreover, our results highlight the higher vulnerability of small communities and small firms, which is explained by the disassortative mixing of the production network.

Business cycles’ correlation and systemic risk of the Japanese supplier-customer network

PubMed Central

Chakraborty, Abhijit; Inoue, Hiroyasu; Fujiwara, Yoshi

2017-01-01

This work aims to study and explain the business cycle correlations of the Japanese production network. We consider the supplier-customer network, which is a directed network representing the trading links between Japanese firms (links from suppliers to customers). The community structure of this network is determined by applying the Infomap algorithm. Each community is defined by its GDP and its associated business cycle. Business cycle correlations between communities are estimated based on copula theory. Then, based on firms’ attributes and network topology, these correlations are explained through linear econometric models. The results show strong evidence of business cycle correlations in the Japanese production network. A significant systemic risk is found for high negative or positive shocks. These correlations are explained mainly by the sector and by geographic similarities. Moreover, our results highlight the higher vulnerability of small communities and small firms, which is explained by the disassortative mixing of the production network. PMID:29059233

Synthetic Indicators of Quality of Life in Europe

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Somarriba, Noelia; Pena, Bernardo

2009-01-01

For more than three decades now, sociologists, politicians and economists have used a wide range of statistical and econometric techniques to analyse and measure the quality of life of individuals with the aim of obtaining useful instruments for social, political and economic decision making. The aim of this paper is to analyse the advantages and…

Gender and Migration Background in Intergenerational Educational Mobility

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schneebaum, Alyssa; Rumplmaier, Bernhard; Altzinger, Wilfried

2016-01-01

We employ 2011 European Union Statistics on Income and Living Conditions survey data for Austria to perform uni- and multivariate econometric analyses to study the role of gender and migration background (MB) in intergenerational educational mobility. We find that there is more persistence in the educational attainment of girls relative to their…

Grade Repetition in Honduran Primary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Marshall, Jeffery H.

2003-01-01

This paper looks at several dimensions of the grade failure issue in Honduras using a unique data set compiled by the UMCE evaluation project in 1998 and 1999. The analytical framework incorporates econometric analysis of standardized tests and teacher pass/fail decisions for roughly 13,000 second and fourth grade students. The results show that…

Gaming via Computer Simulation Techniques for Junior College Economics Education. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Thompson, Fred A.

A study designed to answer the need for more attractive and effective economics education involved the teaching of one junior college economics class by the conventional (lecture) method and an experimental class by computer simulation techniques. Econometric models approximating the "real world" were computer programed to enable the experimental…

School District Leave Policies, Teacher Absenteeism, and Student Achievement.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ehrenberg, Ronald G.; And Others

1991-01-01

Econometric analysis of data from over 700 New York state school districts found that (1) policies governing use of teacher leave days clearly influence their use; (2) higher student absenteeism correlated with poorer test performance; and (3) teacher absence was not largely associated with student test performance. Changes in leave policy were…

The Effect of School Size on Exam Performance in Secondary Schools.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bradley, Steve; Taylor, Jim

1998-01-01

Examines the effects of school size on exam performance for pupils in their final year of compulsory education in England. Background information about English secondary schools and the determinants of exam performance are discussed along with a description of the variables used in the econometric analysis and their expected effects on exam…

Dreams Deferred? The Relationship between Early and Later Postsecondary Educational Aspirations among Racial/Ethnic Groups

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cooper, Michelle Asha

2009-01-01

This study uses data from the Educational Longitudinal Study of 2002 to test a conceptual model that integrates aspects of sociological and econometric frameworks into a traditional status attainment model for educational aspirations. Using descriptive and logistic analyses, this study advanced understanding of the patterns and stability of…

Learning-Testing Process in Classroom: An Empirical Simulation Model

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Buda, Rodolphe

2009-01-01

This paper presents an empirical micro-simulation model of the teaching and the testing process in the classroom (Programs and sample data are available--the actual names of pupils have been hidden). It is a non-econometric micro-simulation model describing informational behaviors of the pupils, based on the observation of the pupils'…

Lessons in Reading Reform: Finding What Works. Technical Appendix

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Betts, Julian R.; Zau, Andrew C.; Koedel, Cory

2010-01-01

This technical appendix provides more detail on the reading reforms implemented under the Blueprint for Student Success project in the San Diego Unified School District (SDUSD) between 2000 and 2005. It provides details on the dataset, the econometric methods the authors employed, and the results, which are also detailed and discussed in the main…

An Econometric Model of the Scholastic Aptitude Test Performance of State Educational Systems.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hashway, Robert M.; And Others

1991-01-01

Nationwide data were partitioned into wealth, fiscal policy, fiscal orientation, and Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) performance and participation. Largest between-group differences show that low SAT achieving states have a larger percentage of seniors taking the SAT, along with higher per capita income, per pupil expenditures, and teacher…

College Choice in America.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Manski, Charles F.; And Others

The processes of choosing a college and being accepted by a college are analyzed, based on data on nearly 23,000 seniors from more than 1,300 high schools from the National Longitudinal Study of the Class of 1972. Econometric modeling and descriptive statistics are provided on: student behavior in selecting a college, choosing school/nonschool…

The determinants of hardwood lumber price

Treesearch

William G. Luppold; Jennifer M. Jacobsen; Jennifer M. Jacobsen

1985-01-01

Econometric equations were estimated to determine the effects of domestic foreign hardwood lumber demands on oak and hardwood lumber prices. Oak price seemed to be more sensitive to changes in exports than overall hardwood lumber price. However, the main determinants of hardwood lumber and oak lumber prices were found to be domestic demand and millstock levels.

The effect of personal experience on choice-based preferences for wildfire protection programs

Treesearch

Tom Holmes; Armando Gonzalez-Caban; John Loomis; Jose Sanchez

2013-01-01

In this paper, we investigate homeowner preferences and willingness to pay for wildfire protection programs using a choice experiment with three attributes: risk, loss and cost. Preference heterogeneity among survey respondents was examined using three econometric models and risk preferences were evaluated by comparing willingness to pay for wildfire protection...

School Cost Functions: A Meta-Regression Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colegrave, Andrew D.; Giles, Margaret J.

2008-01-01

The education cost literature includes econometric studies attempting to determine economies of scale, or estimate an optimal school or district size. Not only do their results differ, but the studies use dissimilar data, techniques, and models. To derive value from these studies requires that the estimates be made comparable. One method to do…

Wage Determinants among Medical Doctors and Nurses in Spain

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Salas-Velasco, Manuel

2010-01-01

This paper examines the determination of wage rates for health professionals using three well known, and commonly used, econometric techniques: ordinary least squares, instrumental variables, and Heckman's method. The data come from a graduate survey and the analysis focuses on a regional labor market, due to nationwide information on salaries is…

Revisiting the Principle of Relative Constancy: Consumer Mass Media Expenditures in Belgium.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dupagne, Michel; Green, R. Jeffery

1996-01-01

Proposes two new econometric models for testing the principle of relative constancy (PRC). Reports on regression and cointegration analyses conducted with Belgian mass media expenditure data from 1953-91. Suggests that alternative mass media expenditure models should be developed because PRC lacks of economic foundation and sound empirical…

Investment in Communications and Transportation: Socio-economic Impacts on Rural Development.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hilewick, Carol Lee; And Others

Two rural counties served as model areas in a comparison of the size and sequence of socioeconomic changes that investment in communications, as opposed to investment in transportation networks, might stimulate. A series of communications, rail, and highway changes were simulated through the use of an econometric model. An Industrial Communication…

Unionism and Productivity in West Virginia Coal Mining.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boal, William M.

1990-01-01

This study presents econometric estimates of the effects of unionism on productivity in 83 West Virginia coal mines in the early 1920s. Results show that unionism significantly reduced productivity at small mines but not at large mines. The author ascribes this effect to systematic differences between small and large operations in the quality of…

Estimated Effects of Retirement Revision on Retention of Navy Tactical Pilots.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-12-01

detailed explanation of the procedure and proofs can be found in Hanushek and Jackson [Ref. 441. S511 ,V. 󈧈 VI. RESULTS AND ANALYSIS A. DESCRIPTIVE...Introduction to Econometrics, pp. 242-243, Prentice-Hall, 1978. 44. Hanushek Eric ard Jackson, John, Statistical .Mlethods for Social Scientists, p. S188

Eric O'Shaughnessy | NREL

Science.gov Websites

of residential solar PV markets. Eric leads the lab's solar data partnerships program. Eric's current green power market research. Research Interests Economic analysis, econometrics, distributed solar PV . Ardani, R. Margolis. 2018. Solar plus: Optimization of distributed solar PV through battery storage and

Analyzing the Cost-Effectiveness of Instruction Expenditures towards High School Completion among Oahu's Public School Districts

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ng, Larson S. W. M.

2011-01-01

The following study attempted to ascertain the instructional cost-effectiveness of public high school teachers towards high school completion through a financially based econometric analysis. Essentially, public high school instruction expenditures and completer data were collected from 2000 to 2007 and bivariate interaction analyzed through a…

Teaching Students with Visual Impairments in an Inclusive Educational Setting: A Case from Nepal

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamichhane, Kamal

2017-01-01

Using the data set from teachers and students and utilising both qualitative and quantitative techniques for analysis, I discuss teaching style considerations in Nepal's mainstream schools for students with visual impairments. Results of the econometric analysis show that teachers' years of schooling, teaching experience, and using blackboard were…

Cognitive Functioning and the Probability of Falls among Seniors in Havana, Cuba

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Trujillo, Antonio J.; Hyder, Adnan A.; Steinhardt, Laura C.

2011-01-01

This article explores the connection between cognitive functioning and falls among seniors (greater than or equal to 60 years of age) in Havana, Cuba, after controlling for observable characteristics. Using the SABE (Salud, Bienestar, and Envejecimiento) cross-sectional database, we used an econometric strategy that takes advantage of available…

Econometric Models of Education, Some Applications. Education and Development, Technical Reports.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tinbergen, Jan; And Others

This report contains five papers which describe mathematical models of the educational system as it relates to economic growth. Experimental applications of the models to particular educational systems are discussed. Three papers, by L. J. Emmerij, J. Blum, and G. Williams, discuss planning models for the calculation of educational requirements…

Decisions That Affect Outcomes in the Distant Future.

DTIC Science & Technology

1979-12-01

cost-he.n- efit analysis is a special case of the results lerived in this rvso arch . %; In Chapter 3, the assumptions underlying willingness to pay are...p°,m°,z°). This information would generally cone from ex- perts or econometric studies. 5.5 Consistency Conditions There are two ways in which we

Web-based Learning Environments Guided by Principles of Good Teaching Practice.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chizmar, John F.; Walbert, Mark S.

1999-01-01

Describes the preparation and execution of a statistics course, an undergraduate econometrics course, and a microeconomic theory course that all utilize Internet technology. Reviews seven principles of teaching practice in order to demonstrate how to enhance the quality of student learning using Web technologies. Includes reactions by Steve Hurd…

Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 1. The Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-12-01

An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

TRACKING THE EMISSION OF CARBON DIOXIDE BY NATION, SECTOR, AND FUEL TYPE: A TRACE GAS ACCOUNTING SYSTEM (TGAS)

EPA Science Inventory

The paper describes a new way to estimate an efficient econometric model of global emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) by nation, sector, and fuel type. Equations for fuel intensity are estimated for coal, oil, natural gas, electricity, and heat for six sectors: agricultural, indus...

Economic factors influencing land use changes in the South-Central United States

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Fred C. White; Brian C. Murray

1988-01-01

Econometric models of land use change were estimated for two physiographic regions in the South-Central United States. Results are consistent-with the economic hierarchy of land use, with population and personal income being significant explanatory variables. Findings regarding the importance of relative agricultural and forestry market-based incomes in influencing...

The Costs and Benefits of Deferred Giving.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fink, Norman S.; Metzler, Howard C.

It is argued in this book that while there can be a significant payoff for deferred giving programs, it is important to determine their cost effectiveness. Modern business methods of cost accounting, benefits analysis, and actuarial and econometric forecasting are applied to the Pomona College plan, whose study was supported by Lilly Endowment,…

New Employment Forecasts. Hotel and Catering Industry 1988-1993.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Measurement for Management Decision, Ltd., London (England).

Econometric forecasting models were used to forecast employment levels in the hotel and catering industry in Great Britain through 1993 under several different forecasting scenarios. The growth in employment in the hotel and catering industry over the next 5 years is likely to be broadly based, both across income levels of domestic consumers,…

Influences on Labor Market Outcomes of African American College Graduates: A National Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Strayhorn, Terrell L.

2008-01-01

Using an expanded econometric model, this study sought to estimate more precisely the net effect of independent variables (i.e., attending an HBCU) on three measures of labor market outcomes for African American college graduates. Findings reveal a statistically significant, albeit moderate, relationship between measures of background, human and…

Lecture Attendance, Study Time, and Academic Performance: A Panel Data Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Andrietti, Vincenzo; Velasco, Carlos

2015-01-01

The authors analyze matched administrative survey data on economics students enrolled in two econometrics courses offered in consecutive terms at a major public university in Spain to assess the impact of lecture attendance and study time on academic performance. Using proxy variables in a cross-sectional regression setting, they find a positive…

The Relationship of Class Size Effects and Teacher Salary

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peevely, Gary; Hedges, Larry; Nye, Barbara A.

2005-01-01

The effects of class size on academic achievement have been studied for decades. Although the results of small-scale, randomized experiments and large-scale, econometric studies point to positive effects of small classes, some scholars see the evidence as ambiguous. Recent analyses from a 4-year, large-scale, randomized experiment on the effects…

Defense Spending and Regional Growth: An Examination of an Export-Base Model and an Econometric Model.

DTIC Science & Technology

1987-06-01

consumer preferences provide influences that can stimulate the rate of growth of the endogenous and/or exogenous income industries. B. EXPORT INDUSTRIES...location quotient was selected to alleviate 12 some of the problems created by consumer preferences and expendi- ture patterns. This value was compared

Pedagogy and the PC: Trends in the AIS Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Badua, Frank

2008-01-01

The author investigated the array of course topics in accounting information systems (AIS), as course syllabi embody. The author (a) used exploratory data analysis to determine the topics that AIS courses most frequently offered and (b) used descriptive statistics and econometric analysis to trace the diversity of course topics through time,…

Resource Allocation in Public Research Universities

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Santos, Jose L.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study was to conduct an econometric analysis of internal resource allocation. Two theories are used for this study of resource allocation in public research universities, and these are: (1) Theory of the Firm; and (2) Resource Dependence Theory. This study used the American Association of Universities Data Exchange (AAUDE)…

Child Care and the Labor Supply of Married Women: Reduced Form Evidence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ribar, David C.

1992-01-01

With data from the Survey of Income Program Participation, a three-equation, reduced-form econometric model is used to generate estimates revealing that the cost of market child care decreases the labor force participation of married women. High wages increase likelihood of working and use of paid child care. (SK)

The Effect of Income Taxation on Labor Supply in the United States.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Triest, Robert K.

1990-01-01

A study used an econometric model to examine the effect of income taxation on labor supply of married women and men. Male labor supply was found to be relatively invariant to income. Impact on married women depended upon the method used to estimate the labor supply function. (SK)

Economic impacts of hurricanes on forest owners

Treesearch

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2010-01-01

We present a conceptual model of the economic impacts of hurricanes on timber producers and consumers, offer a framework indicating how welfare impacts can be estimated using econometric estimates of timber price dynamics, and illustrate the advantages of using a welfare theoretic model, which includes (1) welfare estimates that are consistent with neo-classical...

10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

10 CFR 905.11 - What must an IRP include?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... forecasting method, including but not limited to the time series, end-use, and econometric methods. The... projected durability of such savings measured over time; and must treat demand and supply resources on a... implement its IRP. (i) The IRP must state the time period that the action plan covers, and the action plan...

An examination of the relationships between hardwood lumber and stumpage prices in Ohio

Treesearch

William G. Luppold; Jeffrey P. Prestemon; John E. Baumgras

1998-01-01

Understanding the relationship between hardwood lumber and stumpage prices is critical in evaluating market efficiency and in understanding the potential impact of changing technology on stumpage markets. Unfortunately, the complexity of the hardwood lumber market and lack of reliable data make it difficult to evaluate this relationship using traditional econometric...

What Do Cost Functions Tell Us about the Cost of an Adequate Education?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Costrell, Robert M.; Hanushek, Eric; Loeb, Susanna

2008-01-01

Econometric cost functions have begun to appear in education adequacy cases with greater frequency. Cost functions are superficially attractive because they give the impression of objectivity, holding out the promise of scientifically estimating the cost of achieving specified levels of performance from actual data on spending. By contrast, the…

Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barnett, William A.; Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna

2008-06-01

Grandmont [J.M. Grandmont, On endogenous competitive business cycles, Econometrica 53 (1985) 995-1045] found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models is stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with many forms of multiperiodic dynamics in between. The econometric implications of Grandmont’s findings are particularly important, if bifurcation boundaries cross the confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates in policy-relevant models. Stratification of a confidence region into bifurcated subsets seriously damages robustness of dynamical inferences. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New-Keynesian models. As a result, in this paper we explore bifurcation within the class of New-Keynesian models. We develop the econometric theory needed to locate bifurcation boundaries in log-linearized New-Keynesian models with Taylor policy rules or inflation-targeting policy rules. Central results needed in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the cases that we consider.

Energy risk in the arbitrage pricing model: an empirical and theoretical study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bremer, M.A.

1986-01-01

This dissertation empirically explores the Arbitrage Pricing Theory in the context of energy risk for securities over the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s. Starting from a general multifactor pricing model, the paper develops a two factor model based on a market-like factor and an energy factor. This model is then tested on portfolios of securities grouped according to industrial classification using several econometric techniques designed to overcome some of the more serious estimation problems common to these models. The paper concludes that energy risk is priced in the 1970s and possibly even in the 1960s. Energy risk is found tomore » be priced in the sense that investors who hold assets subjected to energy risk are paid for this risk. The classic version of the Capital Asset Pricing Model which posits the market as the single priced factor is rejected in favor of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory or multi-beta versions of the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The study introduces some original econometric methodology to carry out empirical tests.« less

Adverse and Advantageous Selection in the Medicare Supplemental Market: A Bayesian Analysis of Prescription drug Expenditure.

PubMed

Li, Qian; Trivedi, Pravin K

2016-02-01

This paper develops an extended specification of the two-part model, which controls for unobservable self-selection and heterogeneity of health insurance, and analyzes the impact of Medicare supplemental plans on the prescription drug expenditure of the elderly, using a linked data set based on the Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey data for 2003-2004. The econometric analysis is conducted using a Bayesian econometric framework. We estimate the treatment effects for different counterfactuals and find significant evidence of endogeneity in plan choice and the presence of both adverse and advantageous selections in the supplemental insurance market. The average incentive effect is estimated to be $757 (2004 value) or 41% increase per person per year for the elderly enrolled in supplemental plans with drug coverage against the Medicare fee-for-service counterfactual and is $350 or 21% against the supplemental plans without drug coverage counterfactual. The incentive effect varies by different sources of drug coverage: highest for employer-sponsored insurance plans, followed by Medigap and managed medicare plans. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Perceived and measured stigma among workers with serious mental illness.

PubMed

Baldwin, Marjorie L; Marcus, Steven C

2006-03-01

This research analyzed the extent to which self-reports of job-related discrimination by persons with serious mental illness are associated with econometric measures of discrimination. Data were from the 1994-1995 National Health Interview Survey-Disability Supplement. Data for workers with mood, psychotic, or anxiety disorders (N=1,139) were compared with data for those without such disorders (N=66,341). The main outcome measures were self-reports of wages and stigmatizing experiences in the workplace. After the analyses controlled for functional limitations and job characteristics, no significant difference in mean wages was found between workers with serious mental illness who did not report experiencing stigma and those with no mental illness. In contrast, for all types of mental disorders examined, mean wages for workers with serious mental illness who reported experiencing stigma were significantly lower than mean wages for those with no mental illness. Workers' self-reports of stigmatizing experiences in the labor market appear to be consistent with econometric measures of the effect of stigma on wages, suggesting that workers know when they are being discriminated against.

Ranking product aspects through sentiment analysis of online reviews

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Wei; Wang, Hongwei; Song, Yuan

2017-03-01

The electronic word-of-mouth (e-WOM) is one of the most important among all the factors affecting consumers' behaviours. Opinions towards a product through online reviews will influence purchase decisions of other online consumers by changing their perceptions on the product quality. Furthermore, each product aspect may impact consumers' intentions differently. Thus, sentiment analysis and econometric models are incorporated to examine the relationship between purchase intentions and aspect-opinion pairs, which enable the weight estimation for each product aspect. We first identify product aspects and reduce dimensions to extract aspect-opinion pairs. Next the information gain is calculated for each aspect through entropy theory. Based on sentiment polarity and sentiment strength, we formulate an econometric model by integrating the information gain to measure the aspect's weight. In the experiment, we track 386 digital cameras on Amazon for 39 months, and results show that the aspect weight for digital cameras is detected more precisely than TF-ID and HAC algorithms. The results will bridge product aspects and consumption intention to facilitate e-WOM-based marketing.

Econometric studies of urban population density: a survey.

PubMed

Mcdonald, J F

1989-01-01

This paper presents the 1st reasonably comprehensive survey of empirical research of urban population densities since the publication of the book by Edmonston in 1975. The survey summarizes contributions to empirical knowledge that have been made since 1975 and points toward possible areas for additional research. The paper also provides a brief interpretative intellectual history of the topic. It begins with a personal overview of research in the field. The next section discusses econometric issues that arise in the estimation of population density functions in which density is a function only of a distance to the central business district of the urban area. Section 4 summarizes the studies of a single urban area that went beyond the estimation of simple distance-density functions, and Section 5 discusses studies that sought to explain the variations across urban areas in population density patterns. McDonald refers to the standard theory of urban population density throughout the paper. This basic model is presented in the textbook by Mills and Hamilton and it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the model.

Spatial econometric model of natural disaster impacts on human migration in vulnerable regions of Mexico.

PubMed

Saldaña-Zorrilla, Sergio O; Sandberg, Krister

2009-10-01

Mexico's vast human and environmental diversity offers an initial framework for comprehending some of the prevailing great disparities between rich and poor. Its socio-economic constructed vulnerability to climatic events serves to expand this understanding. Based on a spatial econometric model, this paper tests the contribution of natural disasters to stimulating the emigration process in vulnerable regions of Mexico. Besides coping and adaptive capacity, it assesses the effects of economic losses due to disasters as well as the adverse production and trade conditions of the 1990s on emigration rates in 2000 at the municipality level. Weather-related disasters were responsible for approximately 80 per cent of economic losses in Mexico between 1980 and 2005, mostly in the agricultural sector, which continues to dominate many parts of the country. It is dramatic that this sector generates around only four per cent of gross domestic product but provides a livelihood to about one-quarter of the national population. It is no wonder, therefore, that most emigration from this country arises in vulnerable rural areas.

Agent-based modeling of deforestation in southern Yucatán, Mexico, and reforestation in the Midwest United States

PubMed Central

Manson, Steven M.; Evans, Tom

2007-01-01

We combine mixed-methods research with integrated agent-based modeling to understand land change and economic decision making in the United States and Mexico. This work demonstrates how sustainability science benefits from combining integrated agent-based modeling (which blends methods from the social, ecological, and information sciences) and mixed-methods research (which interleaves multiple approaches ranging from qualitative field research to quantitative laboratory experiments and interpretation of remotely sensed imagery). We test assumptions of utility-maximizing behavior in household-level landscape management in south-central Indiana, linking parcel data, land cover derived from aerial photography, and findings from laboratory experiments. We examine the role of uncertainty and limited information, preferences, differential demographic attributes, and past experience and future time horizons. We also use evolutionary programming to represent bounded rationality in agriculturalist households in the southern Yucatán of Mexico. This approach captures realistic rule of thumb strategies while identifying social and environmental factors in a manner similar to econometric models. These case studies highlight the role of computational models of decision making in land-change contexts and advance our understanding of decision making in general. PMID:18093928

Economic impact of malignant mesothelioma in Italy: an estimate of the public and social costs.

PubMed

Buresti, Giuliana; Colonna, Fabrizio; Corfiati, Marisa; Valenti, Antonio; Persechino, Benedetta; Marinaccio, Alessandro; Rondinone, Bruna Maria; Iavicoli, Sergio

2017-10-27

Despite their considerable interest for public health policies and for occupational disease management and assessment, the economic costs of asbestos-related diseases (ARDs) for society have not been fully estimated or even frequently discussed. The aim of this study was to estimate the economic burden of mesothelioma in Italy by assessing the overall societal cost of the disease, applying an econometric model. We analyzed two main cost groups, public and social. The first includes expenditure borne by the State and other public bodies (medical care costs, insurance, tax and benefits), while the latter uses the human capital approach to measure the loss of productivity suffered by the economy as a whole. We provide an estimate of euro 33,000 per patient for medical care costs and euro 25,000 for insurance and compensation; tax and benefits seem to roughly compensate. We estimated a loss of more than euro 200,000 per patient, in terms of loss of production. This study offers a practical approach for estimating the economic impact of mesothelioma, and provides empirical evidence of the huge economic burden linked to this disease, with its high etiologic fraction.

Evaluation for Water Conservation in Agriculture: Using a Multi-Method Econometric Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ramirez, A.; Eaton, D. J.

2012-12-01

Since the 1960's, farmers have implemented new irrigation technology to increase crop production and planting acreage. At that time, technology responded to the increasing demand for food due to world population growth. Currently, the problem of decreased water supply threatens to limit agricultural production. Uncertain precipitation patterns, from prolonged droughts to irregular rains, will continue to hamper planting operations, and farmers are further limited by an increased competition for water from rapidly growing urban areas. Irrigation technology promises to reduce water usage while maintaining or increasing farm yields. The challenge for water managers and policy makers is to quantify and redistribute these efficiency gains as a source of 'new water.' Using conservation in farming as a source of 'new water' requires accurately quantifying the efficiency gains of irrigation technology under farmers' actual operations and practices. From a water resource management and policy perspective, the efficiency gains from conservation in farming can be redistributed to municipal, industrial and recreational uses. This paper presents a methodology that water resource managers can use to statistically verify the water savings attributable to conservation technology. The specific conservation technology examined in this study is precision leveling, and the study includes a mixed-methods approach using four different econometric models: Ordinary Least Squares, Fixed Effects, Propensity Score Matching, and Hierarchical Linear Models. These methods are used for ex-post program evaluation where random assignment is not possible, and they could be employed to evaluate agricultural conservation programs, where participation is often self-selected. The principal method taken in this approach is Hierarchical Linear Models (HLM), a useful model for agriculture because it incorporates the hierarchical nature of the data (fields, tenants, and landowners) as well as crop rotation (fields in and out of production). The other three methods provide verification of the accuracy of the HLM model and create a robust comparison of the water savings estimates. Seventeen factors were used to isolate the effect of precision leveling from variations in climate, investments in other irrigation improvements, and farmers' management skills. These statistical analyses yield accurate water savings estimates because they consider farmers' actual irrigation technology and practices. Results suggest that savings from water conservation technology under farmers' actual production systems and management are less than those reported by experimental field studies. These water savings measure the 'in situ' effect of the technology, considering farmers' actual irrigation practices and technology. In terms of the accuracy of the models, HLM provides the most precise estimate of the impact of precision leveling on a field's water usage. The HLM estimate was within the 95% confidence interval of the other three models, thus verifying the accuracy and robustness of the statistical findings and model.

New Methodology for Estimating Fuel Economy by Vehicle Class

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chin, Shih-Miao; Dabbs, Kathryn; Hwang, Ho-Ling

2011-01-01

Office of Highway Policy Information to develop a new methodology to generate annual estimates of average fuel efficiency and number of motor vehicles registered by vehicle class for Table VM-1 of the Highway Statistics annual publication. This paper describes the new methodology developed under this effort and compares the results of the existing manual method and the new systematic approach. The methodology developed under this study takes a two-step approach. First, the preliminary fuel efficiency rates are estimated based on vehicle stock models for different classes of vehicles. Then, a reconciliation model is used to adjust the initial fuel consumptionmore » rates from the vehicle stock models and match the VMT information for each vehicle class and the reported total fuel consumption. This reconciliation model utilizes a systematic approach that produces documentable and reproducible results. The basic framework utilizes a mathematical programming formulation to minimize the deviations between the fuel economy estimates published in the previous year s Highway Statistics and the results from the vehicle stock models, subject to the constraint that fuel consumptions for different vehicle classes must sum to the total fuel consumption estimate published in Table MF-21 of the current year Highway Statistics. The results generated from this new approach provide a smoother time series for the fuel economies by vehicle class. It also utilizes the most up-to-date and best available data with sound econometric models to generate MPG estimates by vehicle class.« less

Relationship between recycling rate and air pollution: Waste management in the state of Massachusetts.

PubMed

Giovanis, Eleftherios

2015-06-01

This study examines the relationship between recycling rate of solid waste and air pollution using data from a waste municipality survey in the state of Massachusetts during the period 2009-2012. Two econometric approaches are applied. The first approach is a fixed effects model, while the second is a Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) with fixed effects model. The advantage of the first approach is the ability of controlling for stable time invariant characteristics of the municipalities, thereby eliminating potentially large sources of bias. The second approach is applied in order to estimate the technical efficiency and rank of each municipality accordingly. The regressions control for various demographic, economic and recycling services, such as income per capita, population density, unemployment, trash services, Pay-as-you-throw (PAYT) program and meteorological data. The findings support that a negative relationship between particulate particles in the air 2.5 μm or less in size (PM2.5) and recycling rate is presented. In addition, the pollution is increased with increases on income per capita up to $23,000-$26,000, while after this point income contributes positively on air quality. Finally, based on the efficiency derived by the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) model, the municipalities which provide both drop off and curbside services for trash, food and yard waste and the PAYT program present better performance regarding the air quality. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An Econometric Study of Public School Expenditure Variations Across States, 1951-1967.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Barro, Stephen M.

Nine sets of annual data on State school finances are used to test a theory of expenditure determination by public school districts. The results support implications of the theory regarding effects of personal income, State and federal aid, the relative price of education, the pupil/population ratio, and enrollment growth on per pupil spending. A…

Measuring ICT Use and Learning Outcomes: Evidence from Recent Econometric Studies

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Biagi, Federico; Loi, Massimo

2013-01-01

Based on PISA 2009 data, this article studies the relationship between students' computer use and their achievement in reading, mathematics and science in 23 countries. After having categorised computer use into a set of different activities according to the skills they involve, we correlate students' PISA test-scores with an index capturing the…

Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 3. Appendices to the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-12-01

An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

39 CFR 3050.26 - Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 39 Postal Service 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. 3050.26 Section 3050.26 Postal Service POSTAL REGULATORY COMMISSION PERSONNEL PERIODIC REPORTING § 3050.26 Documentation of demand elasticities and volume forecasts. By January 20 of each year, the Postal Service shall provide econometric...

Doing a Monty: Who Opened the Door to This Game for Economists?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Round, David K.

2007-01-01

The Monty Hall three-door, "Let's Make a Deal" game, named after the 1970s television show, is used widely in economics, econometrics, statistics, and game-theory-based teaching, as well as in many other disciplines. Its solutions and underlying assumptions arouse great passion and argument, in both the academic and popular press. Most economists…

Solicitation and Donation: An Econometric Evaluation of Alumni Generosity in Higher Education

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gottfried, Michael A.; Johnson, Erica L.

2006-01-01

This paper evaluates the relationship between alumni solicitation and alumni donation within institutions of higher education. The issue of alumni giving is important for universities because the average cost of university tuition has increased dramatically over the past 20 years at an annual growth rate larger than the United States CPI (Harvard…

Resources and Constraints: Public Education and the Economic Environment in Ontario, 1978-1987.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Foot, David K.

Considering the national and provincial economic environments for the next decade, this paper projects financial resources and constraints likely to be faced by school boards in Ontario over the same period. The study utilizes an econometric model developed by the Institute for Policy Analysis of the University of Toronto. The findings indicate…

IDA 2004 Cost Research Symposium: Investments in, Use of, and Management of Cost Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2004-09-01

Database: None Publication: Technical Report Keywords: Government, Aircraft, SD&D, Production, Integration, Data Collection, Database, CER B- 71 ... Martin Plant in Marietta , Georgia,” IDA Paper P-3590, July 2001 “Econometric Modeling of Acquisition Category I Systems at the Raytheon Plant in...NAVSEA) ............................................................ B- 71 Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division (NSWCDD

Econometric analysis of fire suppression production functions for large wildland fires

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; David E. Calkin

2013-01-01

In this paper, we use operational data collected for large wildland fires to estimate the parameters of economic production functions that relate the rate of fireline construction with the level of fire suppression inputs (handcrews, dozers, engines and helicopters). These parameter estimates are then used to evaluate whether the productivity of fire suppression inputs...

Income Distribution Over Educational Levels: A Simple Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tinbergen, Jan

An econometric model is formulated that explains income per person in various compartments of the labor market defined by three main levels of education and by education required. The model enables an estimation of the effect of increased access to education on that distribution. The model is based on a production for the economy as a whole; a…

Homocores, Cores and Operational Inefficiency in Superadditive N-Person Games.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-02-01

MICROCOPY RESOLUTION TEST CHART NATIONAL BUREAU OF STANDARDS -963-A ’I .. . Re,, arch Report CCS 456 HOMOCO.S S, WOkLS AND OPLP AI [OW \\l INEFFICIENCY...modifications were made in L. Johanssen’s working papers at The Econometric Institute of The University of Oslo in 1981 and in Aumann [1981]. Yet we know

Declining national park visitation: An economic analysis

Treesearch

Thomas H. Stevens; Thomas A. More; Marla Markowski-Lindsay

2014-01-01

Visitation to the major nature-based national parks has been declining. This paper specifies an econometric model that estimates the relative impact of consumer incomes, travel costs, entry fees and other factors on per capita attendance from 1993 to 2010. Results suggest that entrance fees have had a statistically significant but small impact on per capita attendance...

Career Outcomes of STEM and Non-STEM College Graduates: Persistence in Majored-Field and Influential Factors in Career Choices

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Xu, Yonghong Jade

2013-01-01

Using data from a nationally representative, longitudinal survey of college graduates, this study examines student transition from college to their chosen career paths and identifies factors influencing college graduates' choosing an occupation related to ones' undergraduate major. Within the context of expanded econometric framework a wide range…

Natural amenities and rural population migration: a technical document supporting the Forest Service 2010 RPA Assessment

Treesearch

H. Ken Cordell; Vahé Heboyan; Florence Santos; John C. Bergstrom

2011-01-01

Research has suggested that significant relationships exist between rural population change and natural amenities. Thus, understanding and predicting domestic migration trends as a function of changes in natural amenities is important for effective regional growth and development policies and strategies. In this study, we first estimated an econometric model which...

Analysis of the Automobile Market : Modeling the Long-Run Determinants of the Demand for Automobiles : Volume 2. Simulation Analysis Using the Wharton EFA Automobile Demand Model

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-12-01

An econometric model is developed which provides long-run policy analysis and forecasting of annual trends, for U.S. auto stock, new sales, and their composition by auto size-class. The concept of "desired" (equilibrium) stock is introduced. "Desired...

Size-biased distributions in the generalized beta distribution family, with applications to forestry

Treesearch

Mark J. Ducey; Jeffrey H. Gove

2015-01-01

Size-biased distributions arise in many forestry applications, as well as other environmental, econometric, and biomedical sampling problems. We examine the size-biased versions of the generalized beta of the first kind, generalized beta of the second kind and generalized gamma distributions. These distributions include, as special cases, the Dagum (Burr Type III),...

The Effects of International Mobility on European Researchers: Comparing Intra-EU and U.S. Mobility

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Veugelers, Reinhilde; Van Bouwel, Linda

2015-01-01

Using econometric analysis on survey data from European-born and European-educated researchers who are internationally mobile after their PhD within Europe or to the United States, we find significant positive effects from international mobility on scientific productivity, as well as several other positive career development effects. European…

Population Growth and Economic Development: Lessons from Selected Asian Countries. Policy Development Studies, Number 10.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mason, Andrew; And Others

The major findings of a research project on the relationship between population growth and economic development are summarized in this monograph. The study compares recent demographic and economic trends in Japan, Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia to worldwide experience as described by an econometric model of population and development. The study…

Vietnam: The Political Economy of Education in a "Socialist" Periphery

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

London, Jonathan D.

2006-01-01

In this article I examine historic changes in the goals, conduct and outcomes of education policies in Vietnam from the 1940s to the present, under the Communist Party of Vietnam. Recent studies of Vietnam's education system centre on econometric and demographic analysis of education data dating back to the early 1990s, when Vietnam began an…

The Demand for Higher Education in the Netherlands, 1950-1999

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Canton, Erik; de Jong, Frank

2005-01-01

This paper investigates the role of economic factors in the university enrollment decision for the post-war period in The Netherlands. We include those factors standing at the heart of the idea that education is an investment. The econometric results suggest that students are not responsive to tuition fees, but financial support (the sum of loans…

An Econometric Examination of the Behavioral Perspective Model in the Context of Norwegian Retailing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sigurdsson, Valdimar; Kahamseh, Saeed; Gunnarsson, Didrik; Larsen, Nils Magne; Foxall, Gordon R.

2013-01-01

The behavioral perspective model's (BPM; Foxall, 1990) retailing literature is built on extensive empirical research and techniques that were originally refined in choice experiments in behavioral economics and behavior analysis, and then tested mostly on British consumer panel data. We test the BPM in the context of Norwegian retailing. This…

Colin A. McMillan | NREL

Science.gov Websites

Colin A. McMillan Photo of Colin A. McMillan. Colin McMillan Researcher IV-Operations Research Econometrics Research Interests Systems-level energy efficiency analysis Material and energy flows in economies ; Journal of Industrial Ecology 17, no. 5 (October 2013): 700-11. doi:10.1111/jiec.12050 McMillan, C.A., S.J

Altruism in the "Market" for Giving and Receiving: A Case of Higher Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yoo, Jang H.; Harrison, William B.

1989-01-01

Examines donations to colleges as an outcome of simultaneously solving supply and demand functions. Donors demand attention and prestige supplied by college fund raisers. Using data from 13 colleges, this econometric study shows that the demand side has a unitary elasticity concerning per person donations, while the supply side seems inelastic.…

78 FR 29258 - Blueberry Promotion, Research and Information Order; Assessment Rate Increase

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-05-20

.... \\6\\ The econometric model used statistical methods with time series data to measure how strongly the... program has been over 15 times greater than the costs. At the opposite end of the spectrum in the supply... times greater than the costs. Given the wide range of supply responses considered in the analysis, and...

78 FR 59775 - Blueberry Promotion, Research and Information Order; Assessment Rate Increase

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-09-30

... demand. \\6\\ The econometric model used statistical methods with time series data to measure how strongly... been over 15 times greater than the costs. At the opposite end of the spectrum in the supply response, the average BCR was computed to be 5.36, implying that the benefits of the USHBC were over five times...

Predicting the impacts of new technology aircraft on international air transportation demand

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ausrotas, R. A.

1981-01-01

International air transportation to and from the United States was analyzed. Long term and short term effects and causes of travel are described. The applicability of econometric methods to forecast passenger travel is discussed. A nomograph is developed which shows the interaction of economic growth, airline yields, and quality of service in producing international traffic.

East Europe Report

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-07-28

computation the lack of availability of goods, with the aid of an econometric model of the 4-person wage earner household (FRG consumption...substantially reducing the specific consumption of en- ergy, raw materials, and intermediate products per unit of national income . Cooperation conventions...of income , availability of goods, etc. Without a doubt, such differences impair the indicative value of consumer parities. However, the differences

From concepts, theory, and evidence of heterogeneity of treatment effects to methodological approaches: a primer.

PubMed

Willke, Richard J; Zheng, Zhiyuan; Subedi, Prasun; Althin, Rikard; Mullins, C Daniel

2012-12-13

Implicit in the growing interest in patient-centered outcomes research is a growing need for better evidence regarding how responses to a given intervention or treatment may vary across patients, referred to as heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE). A variety of methods are available for exploring HTE, each associated with unique strengths and limitations. This paper reviews a selected set of methodological approaches to understanding HTE, focusing largely but not exclusively on their uses with randomized trial data. It is oriented for the "intermediate" outcomes researcher, who may already be familiar with some methods, but would value a systematic overview of both more and less familiar methods with attention to when and why they may be used. Drawing from the biomedical, statistical, epidemiological and econometrics literature, we describe the steps involved in choosing an HTE approach, focusing on whether the intent of the analysis is for exploratory, initial testing, or confirmatory testing purposes. We also map HTE methodological approaches to data considerations as well as the strengths and limitations of each approach. Methods reviewed include formal subgroup analysis, meta-analysis and meta-regression, various types of predictive risk modeling including classification and regression tree analysis, series of n-of-1 trials, latent growth and growth mixture models, quantile regression, and selected non-parametric methods. In addition to an overview of each HTE method, examples and references are provided for further reading.By guiding the selection of the methods and analysis, this review is meant to better enable outcomes researchers to understand and explore aspects of HTE in the context of patient-centered outcomes research.

Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

2011-01-01

Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

The 'bankability' of the new waste technologies: an econometric method for risk sharing in private finance waste contracts.

PubMed

Black, I; Seaton, R; Chackiath, S; Wagland, S T; Pollard, S J T; Longhurst, P J

2011-12-01

The identification of risk and its appropriate allocation to partners in project consortia is essential for minimizing overall project risks, ensuring timely delivery and maximizing benefit for money invested. Risk management guidance available from government bodies, especially in the UK, does not specify methodologies for quantitative risk assessment, nor does it offer a procedure for allocating risk among project partners. Here, a methodology to quantify project risk and potential approaches to allocating risk and their implications are discussed. Construction and operation of a waste management facility through a public-private finance contract are discussed. Public-private partnership contracts are special purpose vehicle (SPV) financing methods promoted by the UK government to boost private sector investment in facilities for public service enhancement. Our findings question the appropriateness of using standard deviation as a measure for project risk and confirm the concept of portfolio theory, suggesting the pooling of risk can reduce total risk and its impact.

Estimating the Value-at-Risk for some stocks at the capital market in Indonesia based on ARMA-FIGARCH models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sukono; Lesmana, E.; Susanti, D.; Napitupulu, H.; Hidayat, Y.

2017-11-01

Value-at-Risk has already become a standard measurement that must be carried out by the financial institution for both internal interest and regulatory. In this paper, the estimation of Value-at-Risk of some stocks with econometric models approach is analyzed. In this research, we assume that the stock return follows the time series model. To do the estimation of mean value we are using ARMA models, while to estimate the variance value we are using FIGARCH models. Furthermore, the mean value estimator and the variance are used to estimate the Value-at-Risk. The result of the analysis shows that from five stock PRUF, BBRI, MPPA, BMRI, and INDF, the Value-at-Risk obtained are 0.01791, 0.06037, 0.02550, 0.06030, and 0.02585 respectively. Since Value-at-Risk represents the maximum risk size of each stock at a 95% level of significance, then it can be taken into consideration in determining the investment policy on stocks.

`Been There Done That': Disentangling Option Value Effects from User Heterogeneity When Valuing Natural Resources with a Use Component

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyssenko, Nikita; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

2012-11-01

Endogeneity bias arises in contingent valuation studies when the error term in the willingness to pay (WTP) equation is correlated with explanatory variables because observable and unobservable characteristics of the respondents affect both their WTP and the value of those variables. We correct for the endogeneity of variables that capture previous experience with the resource valued, humpback whales, and with the geographic area of study. We consider several endogenous behavioral variables. Therefore, we apply a multivariate Probit approach to jointly model them with WTP. In this case, correcting for endogeneity increases econometric efficiency and substantially corrects the bias affecting the estimated coefficients of the experience variables, by isolating the decreasing effect on option value caused by having already experienced the resource. Stark differences are unveiled between the marginal effects on WTP of previous experience of the resource in an alternative location versus experience in the location studied, Newfoundland and Labrador (Canada).

Modeling the coupled return-spread high frequency dynamics of large tick assets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Curato, Gianbiagio; Lillo, Fabrizio

2015-01-01

Large tick assets, i.e. assets where one tick movement is a significant fraction of the price and bid-ask spread is almost always equal to one tick, display a dynamics in which price changes and spread are strongly coupled. We present an approach based on the hidden Markov model, also known in econometrics as the Markov switching model, for the dynamics of price changes, where the latent Markov process is described by the transitions between spreads. We then use a finite Markov mixture of logit regressions on past squared price changes to describe temporal dependencies in the dynamics of price changes. The model can thus be seen as a double chain Markov model. We show that the model describes the shape of the price change distribution at different time scales, volatility clustering, and the anomalous decrease of kurtosis. We calibrate our models based on Nasdaq stocks and we show that this model reproduces remarkably well the statistical properties of real data.

'Been there done that': disentangling option value effects from user heterogeneity when valuing natural resources with a use component.

PubMed

Lyssenko, Nikita; Martínez-Espiñeira, Roberto

2012-11-01

Endogeneity bias arises in contingent valuation studies when the error term in the willingness to pay (WTP) equation is correlated with explanatory variables because observable and unobservable characteristics of the respondents affect both their WTP and the value of those variables. We correct for the endogeneity of variables that capture previous experience with the resource valued, humpback whales, and with the geographic area of study. We consider several endogenous behavioral variables. Therefore, we apply a multivariate Probit approach to jointly model them with WTP. In this case, correcting for endogeneity increases econometric efficiency and substantially corrects the bias affecting the estimated coefficients of the experience variables, by isolating the decreasing effect on option value caused by having already experienced the resource. Stark differences are unveiled between the marginal effects on WTP of previous experience of the resource in an alternative location versus experience in the location studied, Newfoundland and Labrador (Canada).

[Public spending on health and population health in Algeria: an econometric analysis].

PubMed

Messaili, Moussa; Kaïd Tlilane, Nouara

2017-07-10

Objective: The objective of this study was to estimate the impact of public spending on health, among other determinants of health, on the health of the population in Algeria, using life expectancy (men and women) and infant mortality rates as indicators of health status. Methods: We conducted a longitudinal study over the period from 1974 to 2010 using the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lags) approach to co-integration to estimate the short-term and long-term relationship. Results: Public spending on health has a positive, but not statistically significant impact, in the long and short term, on life expectancy (men and women). However, public spending significantly reduces the infant mortality rate. The long-term impact of the number of hospital beds is significant for the life expectancy of men, but not for women and infant mortality, but is significant for all indicators in the short-term relationship. The most important variables in improving the health of the population are real GDP per capita and fertility rate.

Robust estimation procedure in panel data model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shariff, Nurul Sima Mohamad; Hamzah, Nor Aishah

2014-06-19

The panel data modeling has received a great attention in econometric research recently. This is due to the availability of data sources and the interest to study cross sections of individuals observed over time. However, the problems may arise in modeling the panel in the presence of cross sectional dependence and outliers. Even though there are few methods that take into consideration the presence of cross sectional dependence in the panel, the methods may provide inconsistent parameter estimates and inferences when outliers occur in the panel. As such, an alternative method that is robust to outliers and cross sectional dependencemore » is introduced in this paper. The properties and construction of the confidence interval for the parameter estimates are also considered in this paper. The robustness of the procedure is investigated and comparisons are made to the existing method via simulation studies. Our results have shown that robust approach is able to produce an accurate and reliable parameter estimates under the condition considered.« less

Now or later? Understanding the etiologic period of suicide

PubMed Central

Vandoros, Sotiris; Kavetsos, Georgios

2015-01-01

Previous research shows that the announcement of austerity measures leads to an immediate and short-lived increase in behaviour that demonstrates anxiety, stress, frustration and other mental effects. This paper uses evidence from the same natural experiment to study whether, for a given decision to commit suicide (as documented by the overall increase over the study period), suicides follow immediately after the announcement of austerity measures in Greece; or whether this is an effect that matures in peoples' minds before being transformed into action. We use evidence from a natural experiment and follow an econometric approach. Our findings show that, despite an overall sharp increase in suicides over the study period, the increase does not follow immediately in the first few days after each such negative event. This suggests that suicides are not spontaneous. They are rather decisions that take time to mature. This time lag implies that suicides arguably attributed to recessions are, in principle, preventable and underlines the importance of mental health services. PMID:26844154

Are Structural Changes in Polish Rural Areas Fostering Leisure-Time Physical Activity?

PubMed Central

Biernat, Elżbieta; Bartkiewicz, Piotr; Buchholtz, Sonia

2017-01-01

Background: In this study, we analyze the determinants of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) of farmers and non-farmers living in rural areas. Methods: We use statistical analysis to describe urban and rural populations, as well as econometric techniques (Heckman regressions and propensity score matching) to assess the role of rural lifestyle in physical activity. Results: World Health Organization (WHO) pro-health PA (physical activity) recommendations are not met by 66% of farmers and 49% of other dwellers in rural areas. Approximately two thirds of them are completely inactive. Farmers enjoy vigorous PA (VPA), cycling and recreational walking less than their non-farming counterparts and are 46% less likely to be active than them; however the difference disappears when they take up an activity. The amount of PA is negatively correlated with age, but tends to increase for older people compared to those in middle age. Women are 6%–7% less active than men, yet the odds of being active at all are higher for women than for men. Household size is negatively correlated with LTPA. Conclusion: Considering the structural changes, rural area dwellers, especially farmers, require public intervention aimed at increasing their awareness of the advantages of LTPA. PMID:28368322

Product differentiation, competition and prices in the retail gasoline industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Manuszak, Mark David

This thesis presents a series of studies of the retail gasoline industry using data from Hawaii. This first chapter examines a number of pricing patterns in the data and finds evidence that gasoline stations set prices which are consistent with a number of forms of price discrimination. The second chapter analyzes various patterns of cross-sectional, cross-market and intertemporal variation in the data to investigate their suitability for use in structural econometric estimation. The remainder of the dissertation consists of specification and estimation of a structural model of supply and demand for retail gasoline products sold at individual gasoline stations. This detailed micro-level analysis permits examination of a number of important issues in the industry, most notably the importance of spatial differentiation in the industry. The third chapter estimates the model and computes new equilibria under a number of asymmetric taxation regimes in order to examine the impact of such tax policies on producer and consumer welfare as well as tax revenue. The fourth chapter examines whether there is any evidence of tacitly collusive behavior in the Hawaiian retail gasoline industry and concludes that, in fact, conduct is fairly competitive in this industry and market.

Structuring economic incentives to reduce emissions from deforestation within Indonesia.

PubMed

Busch, Jonah; Lubowski, Ruben N; Godoy, Fabiano; Steininger, Marc; Yusuf, Arief A; Austin, Kemen; Hewson, Jenny; Juhn, Daniel; Farid, Muhammad; Boltz, Frederick

2012-01-24

We estimate and map the impacts that alternative national and subnational economic incentive structures for reducing emissions from deforestation (REDD+) in Indonesia would have had on greenhouse gas emissions and national and local revenue if they had been in place from 2000 to 2005. The impact of carbon payments on deforestation is calibrated econometrically from the pattern of observed deforestation and spatial variation in the benefits and costs of converting land to agriculture over that time period. We estimate that at an international carbon price of $10/tCO(2)e, a "mandatory incentive structure," such as a cap-and-trade or symmetric tax-and-subsidy program, would have reduced emissions by 163-247 MtCO(2)e/y (20-31% below the without-REDD+ reference scenario), while generating a programmatic budget surplus. In contrast, a "basic voluntary incentive structure" modeled after a standard payment-for-environmental-services program would have reduced emissions nationally by only 45-76 MtCO(2)e/y (6-9%), while generating a programmatic budget shortfall. By making four policy improvements--paying for net emission reductions at the scale of an entire district rather than site-by-site; paying for reductions relative to reference levels that match business-as-usual levels; sharing a portion of district-level revenues with the national government; and sharing a portion of the national government's responsibility for costs with districts--an "improved voluntary incentive structure" would have been nearly as effective as a mandatory incentive structure, reducing emissions by 136-207 MtCO(2)e/y (17-26%) and generating a programmatic budget surplus.

Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution. NBER Working Paper No. 15772

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

2010-01-01

The college choice process can be reduced to three questions: (1) Where does a student apply?; (2) Which schools accept the students?; and (3) Which offer of admission does the student accept? This paper addresses question three. Specifically, we offer an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams…

Faith Schools, Social Capital and Academic Attainment: Evidence from TIMSS-R Mathematics Scores in Flemish Secondary Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pugh, Geoff; Telhaj, Shqiponje

2008-01-01

Social capital theory, recent developments in the theory of identity and a small econometric literature all suggest positive attainment effects from faith schooling. To test this hypothesis, the authors use a unique data set on Flemish secondary school students from the 1999 repeat of the Third International Mathematics and Science Study to…

Toward a Rational Educational Policy. An Econometric Analysis of Ontario, Canada, 1950-65 with Tests 1966-68 and Projections 1969-75.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Handa, M. L.

This report describes some models the author developed to investigate the simultaneous interaction of decisionmakers in a province-wide educational system and to help formulate educational policy for achieving specified enrollments and expenditures. In chapter one, the author describes the models that examine the process of simultaneous…

Taxes in a Labor Supply Model with Joint Wage-Hours Determination.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rosen, Harvey S.

1976-01-01

Payroll and progressive income taxes play an enormous role in the American fiscal system. The purpose of this study is to present some econometric evidence on the effects of taxes on married women, a group of growing importance in the American labor force. A testable model of labor supply is developed which permits statistical estimation of a…

Students Choosing Colleges: Understanding the Matriculation Decision at a Highly Selective Private Institution

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nurnberg, Peter; Schapiro, Morton; Zimmerman, David

2012-01-01

This paper provides an econometric analysis of the matriculation decisions made by students accepted to Williams College, one of the nation's most highly selective colleges and universities. Using data for the Williams classes of 2008 through 2012 to estimate a yield model, we find that--conditional on the student applying to and being accepted by…

Enhancing Hungarian Special Forces through Transformation -- The Shift to Special Operations Forces

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

heteroskedasticity and the Ramsey RESET test . For the detailed regression results see Appendix B. Damodar N. Gujarati, Basic Econometrics , Third...96 Table 13. Ramsey RESET test using powers of the fitted values of DV1 (relative attitude toward HUNSF... Ramsey RESET test using powers of the fitted values of DV1 (relative attitude toward HUNSF) B. REGRESSION ANALYSIS

Dynamic learning and context-dependence in sequential, attribute-based, stated-preference valuation questions

Treesearch

Thomas P. Holmes; Kevin J. Boyle

2005-01-01

A hybrid stated-preference model is presented that combines the referendum contingent valuation response format with an experimentally designed set of attributes. A sequence of valuation questions is asked to a random sample in a mailout mail-back format. Econometric analysis shows greater discrimination between alternatives in the final choice in the sequence, and the...

Schooling and Cognitive Achievements of Children in Morocco: Can the Government Improve Outcomes? World Bank Discussion Papers, No. 264.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Khandker, Shahidur R.; And Others

This paper uses data from the Morocco Living Standard Survey in an econometric investigation of the relative effectiveness of supply- and demand-side factors in determining educational outcomes. A wide range of factors are examined that may be responsible for differences in grade completion levels and achievement among sexes, regions, and urban…

2003 IDA Cost Research Symposium: Cost of Evolutionary Acquisition/Spiral Development

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-08-01

Louis, Missouri”, IDA Paper P-3548 “Econometric Modeling of Acquisition Category I Systems at the Lockheed- Martin Plant in Marietta , Georgia”, IDA...Systems Command (NAVSEA)..................................................... B- 71 Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren Division (NSWCDD...cost estimates and reports on life-cycle costs of major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) in Acquisition Category ID (see Reference [1]). Cost

The Latino Male Educational Trajectory: A Precollege Econometric Model and 21st Century Implications

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ortiz, Ramon, Jr.

2017-01-01

The twin challenges of aging demographics in the United States and the need for higher levels of education to compete in the new technology-based economy is creating a socioeconomic paradox (Friedman, 2005). As the Baby Boomer generation retires, those replacing them are increasingly a non-White population. This demographic shift is inevitable and…

Estimating the Relation between Health and Education: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Eide, Eric R.; Showalter, Mark H.

2011-01-01

The empirical link between education and health is firmly established. Numerous studies document that higher levels of education are positively associated with longer life and better health throughout the lifespan. But measuring the causal links between education and health is a more challenging task. Aside from the typical econometric concerns…

The Determinants of Academic Performance of under Graduate Students: In the Case of Arba Minch University Chamo Campus

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yigermal, Moges Endalamaw

2017-01-01

The main objective of the paper is to investigate the determinant factors affecting the academic performance of regular undergraduate students of Arba Minch university (AMU) chamo campus students. To meet the objective, the Pearson product moment correlation statistical tool and econometrics data analysis (OLS regression) method were used with the…

An Econometrics Analysis on the Effect of Satisfaction for Foreign Graduate Students' Academic Performance in Taiwan

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shih, Cheng Ping; Tillett, Denroy; Lawrence, Nadine

2012-01-01

Taiwan has proven and continues to prove its economic prowess as a fast and well developed nation. One theory to account for this accomplishment is its continued success in developing its best natural resource--its people--through education. A continuum of this practice is the implementation of Higher Education and then International Higher…

The Ratio of Public Investment in Education in China

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Zeyun; Yuan, Liansheng

2007-01-01

Based on cross-section data worldwide and time series data in China, the essay is intended to make an analysis of the factors which have impacts on the ratio of public investment in education by using econometric models and then the future ratio may be predicted. Conclusions are as follows. First, the proportion of fiscal revenue to GDP (gross…

Efficiency versus bias: the role of distributional parameters in count contingent behaviour models

Treesearch

Joseph Englin; Arwin Pang; Thomas Holmes

2011-01-01

One of the challenges facing many applications of non-market valuations is to find data with enough variation in the variable(s) of interest to estimate econometrically their effects on the quantity demanded. A solution to this problem was the introduction of stated preference surveys. These surveys can introduce variation into variables where there is no natural...

Reducing the Digital Divide through ICT Adoption: Factors, Barriers, and How ICT in Schools Can Help

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tengtrakul, Pitikorn

2013-01-01

Through econometric analysis of data from multiple surveys, this study explores factors that affect ICT adoption and evaluates the extent to which ICT in schools affect the ICT adoption of surrounding communities, in order to provide a perspective that can help narrow the gap of digital divide. Understanding factors affecting ICT adoption may…

The Search for Equity in School Finance: Michigan School District Response to a Guaranteed Tax Base.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Rolla Edward; Carroll, Stephen J.

Part of a three-volume report on the effects of school finance reform, this volume examines the effects of reform on Michigan school districts' budgets from 1971 to 1976. Econometric models were used. Researchers found a very small "price" effect--an elasticity of -.02. The data provide no evidence that state matching grants stimulate…

VISUAL-SEVEIF, a tool for integrating fire behavior simulation and economic evaluation of the impact of Wildfires

Treesearch

Francisco Rodríguez y Silva; Juan Ramón Molina Martínez; Miguel Ángel Herrera Machuca; Jesús Mª Rodríguez Leal

2013-01-01

Progress made in recent years in fire science, particularly as applied to forest fire protection, coupled with the increased power offered by mathematical processors integrated into computers, has led to important developments in the field of dynamic and static simulation of forest fires. Furthermore, and similarly, econometric models applied to economic...

Economics of Job Search: A Biracial Analysis of Job Search Behavior of Urban Male Youth Ages 18-22.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stephenson, Stanley P., Jr.

This study presents and tests an econometric model of job search behavior for youth. The main hypothesis is that differences in search behavior help account for youth-adult employment differences and that within the youth group, black-white unemployment and earnings differentials can be partially explained by job search behavior. Endogenous…

Attrition Bias in Panel Data: A Sheep in Wolf's Clothing? A Case Study Based on the Mabel Survey.

PubMed

Cheng, Terence C; Trivedi, Pravin K

2015-09-01

This paper investigates the nature and consequences of sample attrition in a unique longitudinal survey of medical doctors. We describe the patterns of non-response and examine if attrition affects the econometric analysis of medical labour market outcomes using the estimation of physician earnings equations as a case study. We compare the econometric gestimates obtained from a number of different modelling strategies, which are as follows: balanced versus unbalanced samples; an attrition model for panel data based on the classic sample selection model; and a recently developed copula-based selection model. Descriptive evidence shows that doctors who work longer hours, have lower years of experience, are overseas trained and have changed their work location are more likely to drop out. Our analysis suggests that the impact of attrition on inference about the earnings of general practitioners is small. For specialists, there appears to be some evidence for an economically significant bias. Finally, we discuss how the top-up samples in the Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life survey can be used to address the problem of panel attrition. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Directory of Energy Information Administration Model Abstracts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1986-07-16

This directory partially fulfills the requirements of Section 8c, of the documentation order, which states in part that: The Office of Statistical Standards will annually publish an EIA document based on the collected abstracts and the appendices. This report contains brief statements about each model's title, acronym, purpose, and status, followed by more detailed information on characteristics, uses, and requirements. Sources for additional information are identified. All models active through March 1985 are included. The main body of this directory is an alphabetical list of all active EIA models. Appendix A identifies major EIA modeling systems and the models withinmore » these systems, and Appendix B identifies active EIA models by type (basic, auxiliary, and developing). EIA also leases models developed by proprietary software vendors. Documentation for these proprietary models is the responsibility of the companies from which they are leased. EIA has recently leased models from Chase Econometrics, Inc., Data Resources, Inc. (DRI), the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates (WEFA). Leased models are not abstracted here. The directory is intended for the use of energy and energy-policy analysts in the public and private sectors.« less

Measuring Efficiency of Secondary Healthcare Providers in Slovenia

PubMed Central

Blatnik, Patricia; Bojnec, Štefan; Tušak, Matej

2017-01-01

Abstract The chief aim of this study was to analyze secondary healthcare providers' efficiency, focusing on the efficiency analysis of Slovene general hospitals. We intended to present a complete picture of technical, allocative, and cost or economic efficiency of general hospitals. Methods We researched the aspects of efficiency with two econometric methods. First, we calculated the necessary quotients of efficiency with the stochastic frontier analyze (SFA), which are realized by econometric evaluation of stochastic frontier functions; then, with the data envelopment analyze (DEA), we calculated the necessary quotients that are based on the linear programming method. Results Results on measures of efficiency showed that the two chosen methods produced two different conclusions. The SFA method concluded Celje General Hospital is the most efficient general hospital, whereas the DEA method concluded Brežice General Hospital was the hospital to be declared as the most efficient hospital. Conclusion Our results are a useful tool that can aid managers, payers, and designers of healthcare policy to better understand how general hospitals operate. The participants can accordingly decide with less difficulty on any further business operations of general hospitals, having the best practices of general hospitals at their disposal. PMID:28730180

Assessing the impact of vulnerability on perceptions of social cohesion in the context of community resilience to disaster in the Blue Mountains.

PubMed

Redshaw, Sarah; Ingham, Valerie; McCutcheon, Marion; Hicks, John; Burmeister, Oliver

2018-02-01

To assess the impact of network communications, community participation and elements of vulnerability on the perception of social cohesiveness in the Blue Mountains local government area (Blue Mountains LGA). A questionnaire was administered to residents of the Blue Mountains LGA. Econometric analysis of the resulting data was undertaken. Blue Mountains LGA, Australia. One thousand one hundred and three residents of the Blue Mountains LGA responded to the questionnaire. The responses enabled the construction of variables measuring individual perceptions of community cohesiveness, their network communications and community participation. Demographic data and data on the vulnerabilities of individuals were also collected. The data were used in an econometric model which identified that network communications and community participation impacted positively on perceptions of social cohesiveness while vulnerability factors had a negative impact. Remedial action to build community cohesiveness and network communications can be expected to have a positive impact on social cohesiveness. In developing strategies to build community cohesiveness and network communication, particular care needs to be taken to ensure the inclusion of those members of society who are regarded as the most vulnerable. © 2017 National Rural Health Alliance Inc.

How does social capital matter to the health status of older adults? Evidence from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey.

PubMed

Liu, Gordon G; Xue, Xindong; Yu, Chenxi; Wang, Yafeng

2016-09-01

This paper uses longitudinal data from China to examine the causal relationship between structural social capital and health among Chinese older adults. We employ various econometric strategies to control for the potential endogeneity of social capital and account for the possible contextual confounding effects by including community-level social capital. We use three indicators to measure individuals' general, physical, and mental health. Results indicate that social capital has a significant and positive effect on general and physical health. Based on our primary IV findings, a one standard-deviation increase in social capital leads to a 4.9 standard-deviation decrease in the probability of having bad health and a 2.2 standard-deviation decrease in physical activity limitations. Our results are robust to a series of sensitivity checks. Further analysis suggests heterogeneous effects by age but not by gender or area of residence. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatial econometric analysis of factors influencing regional energy efficiency in China.

PubMed

Song, Malin; Chen, Yu; An, Qingxian

2018-05-01

Increased environmental pollution and energy consumption caused by the country's rapid development has raised considerable public concern, and has become the focus of the government and public. This study employs the super-efficiency slack-based model-data envelopment analysis (SBM-DEA) to measure the total factor energy efficiency of 30 provinces in China. The estimation model for the spatial interaction intensity of regional total factor energy efficiency is based on Wilson's maximum entropy model. The model is used to analyze the factors that affect the potential value of total factor energy efficiency using spatial dynamic panel data for 30 provinces during 2000-2014. The study found that there are differences and spatial correlations of energy efficiency among provinces and regions in China. The energy efficiency in the eastern, central, and western regions fluctuated significantly, and was mainly because of significant energy efficiency impacts on influences of industrial structure, energy intensity, and technological progress. This research is of great significance to China's energy efficiency and regional coordinated development.

Measuring the Impact of Financial Intermediation: Linking Contract Theory to Econometric Policy Evaluation *

PubMed Central

Townsend, Robert M.; Urzua, Sergio S.

2010-01-01

We study the impact that financial intermediation can have on productivity through the alleviation of credit constraints in occupation choice and/or an improved allocation of risk, using both static and dynamic structural models as well as reduced form OLS and IV regressions. Our goal in this paper is to bring these two strands of the literature together. Even though, under certain assumptions, IV regressions can recover accurately the true model-generated local average treatment effect, these are quantitatively different, in order of magnitude and even sign, from other policy impact parameters (e.g., ATE and TT). We also show that laying out clearly alternative models can guide the search for instruments. On the other hand adding more margins of decision, i.e., occupation choice and intermediation jointly, or adding more periods with promised utilities as key state variables, as in optimal multi-period contracts, can cause the misinterpretation of IV as the causal effect of interest. PMID:20436953

STRUCTURAL ESTIMATES OF TREATMENT EFFECTS ON OUTCOMES USING RETROSPECTIVE DATA: AN APPLICATION TO DUCTAL CARCINOMA IN SITU

PubMed Central

Gold, Heather Taffet; Sorbero, Melony E. S.; Griggs, Jennifer J.; Do, Huong T.; Dick, Andrew W.

2013-01-01

Analysis of observational cohort data is subject to bias from unobservable risk selection. We compared econometric models and treatment effectiveness estimates using the linked Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare claims data for women diagnosed with ductal carcinoma in situ. Treatment effectiveness estimates for mastectomy and breast conserving surgery (BCS) with or without radiotherapy were compared using three different models: simultaneous-equations model, discrete-time survival model with unobserved heterogeneity (frailty), and proportional hazards model. Overall trends in disease-free survival (DFS), or time to first subsequent breast event, by treatment are similar regardless of the model, with mastectomy yielding the highest DFS over 8 years of follow-up, followed by BCS with radiotherapy, and then BCS alone. Absolute rates and direction of bias varied substantially by treatment strategy. DFS was underestimated by single-equation and frailty models compared to the simultaneous-equations model and RCT results for BCS with RT and overestimated for BCS alone. PMID:21602195

Essays on environmental and energy economics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brucal, Arlan Zandro

This dissertation applies techniques from the expanding field of econometrics to the study of contemporary issues in environmental and resource economics. Three essays are offered that aim to generate meaningful policy implications through econometric analyses of the voluminous data recently becoming available to researchers. The first essay examines how overall price, quality and welfare changed as energy efficiency standards in the US became progressively more stringent between 2001-2011. A novel index-the Constant Quality Price Index (CQPI)-is developed to delineate changes in overall price and quality. Results obtained using point-of-sale data from individual clothes washers sold in the US during the period suggest that standards on washing machines have had at worst a negligible effect on consumer welfare, or at best lowered prices and improved quality for washers. The second essay analyzes the relationship between foreign acquisition and aspects of plant-level environmental performance using micro data from the Indonesian Census of Manufacturing. To establish a causal effect of ownership change, a difference-in-differences approach is combined with coarsened exact matching. A total of 264 acquisition cases between 1983-2001 are considered, where an acquired plant is observed at least a year before and three years after undergoing a change in ownership, and for which a carefully selected control plant exists. Results suggest that FDIs can have positive scale and technique effects on the environmental performance of acquired plants. These effects are especially pronounced for small firms and firms that were relatively inefficient prior to acquisition. The third essay analyzes the impact of oil price shocks on the US economy at the individual state level. The study accounts for the endogeneity of changes in crude oil price, differences among states, and spillover effects with neighboring states. Results suggest that the implications of higher oil prices for a state's economic growth depend on the underlying cause of the oil price change and a state's average production of oil relative to its average consumption. The direct effect of oil price shocks can be either magnified or tempered by spillover effects, which may also explain why regional recessions may occur with certain oil price shocks.

Lives Saved Tool (LiST) costing: a module to examine costs and prioritize interventions.

PubMed

Bollinger, Lori A; Sanders, Rachel; Winfrey, William; Adesina, Adebiyi

2017-11-07

Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals will require careful allocation of resources in order to achieve the highest impact. The Lives Saved Tool (LiST) has been used widely to calculate the impact of maternal, neonatal and child health (MNCH) interventions for program planning and multi-country estimation in several Lancet Series commissions. As use of the LiST model increases, many have expressed a desire to cost interventions within the model, in order to support budgeting and prioritization of interventions by countries. A limited LiST costing module was introduced several years ago, but with gaps in cost types. Updates to inputs have now been added to make the module fully functional for a range of uses. This paper builds on previous work that developed an initial version of the LiST costing module to provide costs for MNCH interventions using an ingredients-based costing approach. Here, we update in 2016 the previous econometric estimates from 2013 with newly-available data and also include above-facility level costs such as program management. The updated econometric estimates inform percentages of intervention-level costs for some direct costs and indirect costs. These estimates add to existing values for direct cost requirements for items such as drugs and supplies and required provider time which were already available in LiST Costing. Results generated by the LiST costing module include costs for each intervention, as well as disaggregated costs by intervention including drug and supply costs, labor costs, other recurrent costs, capital costs, and above-service delivery costs. These results can be combined with mortality estimates to support prioritization of interventions by countries. The LiST costing module provides an option for countries to identify resource requirements for scaling up a maternal, neonatal, and child health program, and to examine the financial impact of different resource allocation strategies. It can be a useful tool for countries as they seek to identify the best investments for scarce resources. The purpose of the LiST model is to provide a tool to make resource allocation decisions in a strategic planning process through prioritizing interventions based on resulting impact on maternal and child mortality and morbidity.

Use of instrumental variables in the analysis of generalized linear models in the presence of unmeasured confounding with applications to epidemiological research.

PubMed

Johnston, K M; Gustafson, P; Levy, A R; Grootendorst, P

2008-04-30

A major, often unstated, concern of researchers carrying out epidemiological studies of medical therapy is the potential impact on validity if estimates of treatment are biased due to unmeasured confounders. One technique for obtaining consistent estimates of treatment effects in the presence of unmeasured confounders is instrumental variables analysis (IVA). This technique has been well developed in the econometrics literature and is being increasingly used in epidemiological studies. However, the approach to IVA that is most commonly used in such studies is based on linear models, while many epidemiological applications make use of non-linear models, specifically generalized linear models (GLMs) such as logistic or Poisson regression. Here we present a simple method for applying IVA within the class of GLMs using the generalized method of moments approach. We explore some of the theoretical properties of the method and illustrate its use within both a simulation example and an epidemiological study where unmeasured confounding is suspected to be present. We estimate the effects of beta-blocker therapy on one-year all-cause mortality after an incident hospitalization for heart failure, in the absence of data describing disease severity, which is believed to be a confounder. 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

Manpower for the coal mining industry: an assessment of adequacy through the year 2000. Volume II. Technical approach. Final technical report. [USA; forecasting

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mendis, M.S.; Rosenberg, J.I.; Medville, D.M.

1980-03-01

This report presents a summary of the analytical approach taken and the conclusions reached in an assessment of the supply and demand for manpower in the coal mining industry through the year 2000. A hybrid system dynamics/econometric model of the coal mining industry was developed which incorporates relationships between technological change, labor productivity, production costs, wages, graduation rates, and other key variables in estimating imbalances between labor supply and demand. Study results indicate that while the supply of production workers is expected to be sufficient under most future demand scenarios, periodic shortages of experienced workers, especially in the Northern Greatmore » Plains can be expected. Other study findings are that the supply of mining engineers will be sufficient under all but the highest coal demand scenario, a shortage of faculty will affect the supply of mining engineers in the near-term and the employment of mining technicians is expected to exhibit the largest increase in any labor category studied. In this volume the nature of the coal mining manpower problem is discussed, a detailed description of that analysis conducted and the sources of data used is provided, and the findings of the study are presented.« less

Absorptive capacity of Libya: a constrained expenditure approach. [Policy of max-minimize oil exports

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

El-Jehaimi, T.

This paper is concerned with estimating the absorptive capacity of Libya as it relates to the country's development objectives. Specifically, the paper will attempt, on the bases of analytical assumptions and a model of econometric relationships, to estimate the levels of oil exports which will be required in order to finance the economic development of Libya over the next ten years. By emphasizing the requirements of domestic development, the question of surplus will not arise and, unlike in some other works, the absorption problem will not be met. This approach, explained in detail, should give more realistic results since itmore » has been the policy of Libya to max-minimize oil exports since 1970, i.e., to export high enough to pay for imports and other foreign obligations such as foreign aid but low enough to not generate excess revenues. Excess revenues are revenues in excess of what is required to maintain the reserves/imports ratio at an optimum level. The conservation policy adopted by Libya has resulted in lowering production levels from a peak of 3.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 1970 to a little over 1 mb/d in 1975. This policy is expected to continue. (From Introduction)« less

Identifying the Community Structure of the Food-Trade International Multi-Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Torreggiani, S.; Mangioni, G.

2018-01-01

Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of international food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular, nothing is known about the multi-network's community structure. Here we find that the individual crop-specific layers of the multi-network have densely connected trading groups, a consistent characteristic over the period 2001-2011. Further, the multi-network is characterized by low variability over this period but with substantial heterogeneity across layers in each year. In particular, the layers are mostly assortative: more-intensively connected countries tend to import from and export to countries that are themselves more connected. We also fit econometric models to identify social, economic and geographic factors explaining the probability that any two countries are co-present in the same community. Our estimates indicate that the probability of country pairs belonging to the same food trade community depends more on geopolitical and economic factors-such as geographical proximity and trade-agreement co-membership-than on country economic size and/or income. These community-structure findings of the multi-network are especially valuable for efforts to understand past and emerging dynamics in the global food system, especially those that examine potential 'shocks' to global food trade.

Identifying the community structure of the food-trade international multi-network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Torreggiani, S.; Mangioni, G.; Puma, M. J.; Fagiolo, G.

2018-05-01

Achieving international food security requires improved understanding of how international trade networks connect countries around the world through the import-export flows of food commodities. The properties of international food trade networks are still poorly documented, especially from a multi-network perspective. In particular, nothing is known about the multi-network’s community structure. Here we find that the individual crop-specific layers of the multi-network have densely connected trading groups, a consistent characteristic over the period 2001–2011. Further, the multi-network is characterized by low variability over this period but with substantial heterogeneity across layers in each year. In particular, the layers are mostly assortative: more-intensively connected countries tend to import from and export to countries that are themselves more connected. We also fit econometric models to identify social, economic and geographic factors explaining the probability that any two countries are co-present in the same community. Our estimates indicate that the probability of country pairs belonging to the same food trade community depends more on geopolitical and economic factors—such as geographical proximity and trade-agreement co-membership—than on country economic size and/or income. These community-structure findings of the multi-network are especially valuable for efforts to understand past and emerging dynamics in the global food system, especially those that examine potential ‘shocks’ to global food trade.

A Panel Analysis of Student Mathematics Achievement in the US in the 1990s: Does Increasing the Amount of Time in Learning Activities Affect Math Achievement?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Aksoy, Tevfik; Link, Charles R.

2000-01-01

Uses panel estimation techniques to estimate econometric models of mathematics achievement determinants for a nationally representative sample of high-school students. Extra time spent on math homework increases test scores; an extra hour of TV viewing negatively affects scores. Longer math periods also help. (Contains 56 references.) (MLH)

Density Deconvolution With EPI Splines

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-09-01

effects of various substances on test subjects [11], [12]. Whereas in geophysics, a shot may be fired into the ground, in pharmacokinetics, a signal is...be significant, including medicine, bioinformatics, chemistry, as- tronomy, and econometrics , as well as an extensive review of kernel based methods...demonstrate the effectiveness of our model in simulations motivated by test instances in [32]. We consider an additive measurement model scenario where

An Econometric Model of External Labor Supply to the Establishment Within a Confined Geographic Market.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hines, Robert James

The study conducted in the Buffalo, New York standard metropolitan statistical area, was undertaken to formulate and test a simple model of labor supply for a local labor market. The principal variables to be examined to determine the external supply function of labor to the establishment are variants of the rate of change of the entry wage and…

An Econometric Model for Estimating IQ Scores and Environmental Influences on the Pattern of IQ Scores Over Time.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kadane, Joseph B.; And Others

This paper offers a preliminary analysis of the effects of a semi-segregated school system on the IQ's of its students. The basic data consist of IQ scores for fourth, sixth, and eighth grades and associated environmental data obtained from their school records. A statistical model is developed to analyze longitudinal data when both process error…

Analytical Tools for Affordability Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2015-04-30

flunk this basic test from their inception. —Honorable Ashton B. Carter (2010), Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics... Testing , and Evaluation] funding has been lost to cancelled programs. (Decker & Wagner, 2011) The Army is scarcely unique in this regard. All... econometric model of how schedule affects cost should take advantage of these different cost categories and treat them separately when they are known

Changes in Examination Performance in English Secondary Schools over the Course of a Decade: Searching for Patterns and Trends over Time

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mangan, Jean; Pugh, Geoff; Gray, John

2005-01-01

The article explores changes in the examination performance of a random sample of 500 English secondary schools between 1992 and 2001. Using econometric methods, it concludes that: there is an overall deterministic trend in school performance but it is not stable, making prediction accuracy poor; the aggregate trend does not explain improvement…

Public and Private School Distinction, Regional Development Differences, and Other Factors Influencing the Success of Primary School Students in Turkey

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sulku, Seher Nur; Abdioglu, Zehra

2015-01-01

This study investigates the factors influencing the success of students in primary schools in Turkey. TIMSS 2011 data for Turkey, measuring the success of eighth-grade students in the field of mathematics, were used in an econometric analysis, performed using classical linear regression models. Two hundred thirty-nine schools participated in the…

An Investigation of Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines for Modeling and Analysis of Univariate and Semi-Multivariate Time Series Systems

DTIC Science & Technology

1991-09-01

However, there is no guarantee that this would work; for instance if the data were generated by an ARCH model (Tong, 1990 pp. 116-117) then a simple...Hill, R., Griffiths, W., Lutkepohl, H., and Lee, T., Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics , 2th ed., Wiley, 1985. Kendall, M., Stuart

Dynamics of Markets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCauley, Joseph L.

2009-09-01

Preface; 1. Econophysics: why and what; 2. Neo-classical economic theory; 3. Probability and stochastic processes; 4. Introduction to financial economics; 5. Introduction to portfolio selection theory; 6. Scaling, pair correlations, and conditional densities; 7. Statistical ensembles: deducing dynamics from time series; 8. Martingale option pricing; 9. FX market globalization: evolution of the dollar to worldwide reserve currency; 10. Macroeconomics and econometrics: regression models vs. empirically based modeling; 11. Complexity; Index.

Who pays for sudden oak death? An econometric investigation of the impact of an emerging pathogen on California nurseries

Treesearch

J.K. Gilless; J. Tack; A. Peterson Zwane

2006-01-01

While there is a great deal of scientific uncertainty about the nature and control of Phytophthora ramorum, there is growing concern that its economic costs will be significant. Indeed the repercussions at the nursery level of a positive test for the presence of P. ramorum may include severely impacted current and future cash flows...

Extraterrestrial materials processing and construction. [space industrialization

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Criswell, D. R.; Waldron, R. D.; Mckenzie, J. D.

1980-01-01

Three different chemical processing schemes were identified for separating lunar soils into the major oxides and elements. Feedstock production for space industry; an HF acid leach process; electrorefining processes for lunar free metal and metal derived from chemical processing of lunar soils; production and use of silanes and spectrally selective materials; glass, ceramics, and electrochemistry workshops; and an econometric model of bootstrapping space industry are discussed.

Federal timber restrictions, interregional spillovers, and the impact on US softwood markets

Treesearch

David N. Wear; Brian C. Murray

2004-01-01

An econometric model of the US softwood lumber and timber markets is estimated and used to simulate the price, trade, and welfare effects of reductions in federal timber sales in the western US commencing in the late 1980s. Results indicate that the timber sale reductions increased lumber prices by roughly 15 percent in the mid-1990s. Lumber consumers were the...

A General Econometric Model of the Determinants of Library Subscription Prices of Scholarly Journals: The Role of Exchange Rate Risk and Other Factors.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chressanthis, George A.; Chressanthis, June D.

1994-01-01

Provides regression-based empirical evidence of the effects of variations in exchange rate risk on 1985 library prices of the top-ranked 99 journals in economics. The relationship between individual journal prices and library prices is shown, and other factors associated with increases and decreases in library journal prices are given. (Contains…

The Impact of Socioeconomic Status and Population Size on the Use of the Tatar Language at Home

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tovar-García, Edgar Demetrio; Podmazin, Evgeny

2018-01-01

Based on econometric methods, we found that Tatar children from families with better material conditions and those who live in bigger cities are more likely to use the Russian language at home. Although Tatar seems to be well protected, thanks to local language policies after perestroika, we found some warning signs for the reformulation of public…

Provisioning in Agricultural Communities: Local, Regional and Global Cereal Prices and Local Production on Three Continents

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Essam, Timothy; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Mann, Bristol F.; Eilerts, Gary

2012-01-01

Monitoring and incorporating diverse market and staple food information into food price indices is critical for food price analyses. Satellite remote sensing data and earth science models have an important role to play in improving humanitarian aid timing, delivery and distribution. Incorporating environmental observations into econometric models will improve food security analysis and understanding of market functioning.

Linking land-use projections and forest fragmentation analysis.

Treesearch

Andrew J. Plantinga; Ralph J. Alig; Henry Eichman; David J. Lewis

2007-01-01

An econometric model of private land-use decisions is used to project land use to 2030 for each county in the continental United States. On a national scale, forest area is projected to increase overall between 0.1 and 0.2 percent per year between now and 2030. However, forest area is projected to decrease in a majority of regions, including the key forestry regions of...

Determining How Tertiary Education and Human Capital Formation Influenced Economic Expansion in Israel, Japan, and Norway from 2000-2010

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalkbrenner, Erin Lee

2014-01-01

Researchers have calculated the relationship between human capital development and economic output by various means of econometric modeling and by use of numerous indicators under the context of an assortment of human capital theory. This study was conducted to identify new interpretations of the expansion of human capital in the form of tertiary…