Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China.

PubMed

Cui, Jing; Zhou, Lingjun; Wee, B; Shen, Fengping; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

2014-05-01

Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

Lack of prognostic significance of conventional peritoneal cytology in colorectal and gastric cancers: results of EVOCAPE 2 multicentre prospective study.

PubMed

Cotte, E; Peyrat, P; Piaton, E; Chapuis, F; Rivoire, M; Glehen, O; Arvieux, C; Mabrut, J-Y; Chipponi, J; Gilly, F-N

2013-07-01

In digestive cancers, the prognostic significance of intraperitoneal free cancer cells remains unclear (IPCC). The main objective of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of IPCC in colorectal and gastric adenocarcinoma. The secondary objectives were to evaluate the predictive significance of IPCC for the development of peritoneal carcinomatosis (PC) and to evaluate the prevalence of synchronous PC and IPCC. This was a prospective multicentre study. All patients undergoing surgery for a digestive tract cancer had peritoneal cytology taken. Patients with gastric and colorectal cancer with no residual tumour after surgery and no evidence of PC were followed-up for 2 years. The primary end point was overall survival. Between 2002 and 2007, 1364 patients were enrolled and 956 were followed-up over 2 years. Prevalence of IPCC was 5.7% in colon cancer, 0.6% in rectal cancer and 19.5% in gastric cancer. The overall 2-year survival rate for patients with IPCC was 34.7% versus 86.8% for patients with negative cytology (p<0.0001). By multivariate analysis, IPCC was not an independent prognostic factor. No relationship between cytology and recurrence was found. The presence of IPCC was not an independent prognostic and didn't add any additional prognostic information to the usual prognostic factors related to the tumour (pTNM and differentiation). Moreover the presence of IPCC detected with this method didn't appear to predict development of PC. Peritoneal cytology using conventional staining doesn't seem to be a useful tool for the staging of colorectal and gastric cancers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Testbed for Data Fusion for Helicopter Diagnostics and Prognostics

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-03-01

and algorithm design and tuning in order to develop advanced diagnostic and prognostic techniques for air craft health monitoring . Here a...and development of models for diagnostics, prognostics , and anomaly detection . Figure 5 VMEP Server Browser Interface 7 Download... detections , and prognostic prediction time horizons. The VMEP system and in particular the web component are ideal for performing data collection

Reporting recommendations for tumor marker prognostic studies (REMARK): explanation and elaboration

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The Reporting Recommendations for Tumor Marker Prognostic Studies (REMARK) checklist consists of 20 items to report for published tumor marker prognostic studies. It was developed to address widespread deficiencies in the reporting of such studies. In this paper we expand on the REMARK checklist to enhance its use and effectiveness through better understanding of the intent of each item and why the information is important to report. Methods REMARK recommends including a transparent and full description of research goals and hypotheses, subject selection, specimen and assay considerations, marker measurement methods, statistical design and analysis, and study results. Each checklist item is explained and accompanied by published examples of good reporting, and relevant empirical evidence of the quality of reporting. We give prominence to discussion of the 'REMARK profile', a suggested tabular format for summarizing key study details. Summary The paper provides a comprehensive overview to educate on good reporting and provide a valuable reference for the many issues to consider when designing, conducting, and analyzing tumor marker studies and prognostic studies in medicine in general. To encourage dissemination of the Reporting Recommendations for Tumor Marker Prognostic Studies (REMARK): Explanation and Elaboration, this article has also been published in PLoS Medicine. PMID:22642691

Validation of the prognostic gene portfolio, ClinicoMolecular Triad Classification, using an independent prospective breast cancer cohort and external patient populations

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Introduction Using genome-wide expression profiles of a prospective training cohort of breast cancer patients, ClinicoMolecular Triad Classification (CMTC) was recently developed to classify breast cancers into three clinically relevant groups to aid treatment decisions. CMTC was found to be both prognostic and predictive in a large external breast cancer cohort in that study. This study serves to validate the reproducibility of CMTC and its prognostic value using independent patient cohorts. Methods An independent internal cohort (n = 284) and a new external cohort (n = 2,181) were used to validate the association of CMTC between clinicopathological factors, 12 known gene signatures, two molecular subtype classifiers, and 19 oncogenic signalling pathway activities, and to reproduce the abilities of CMTC to predict clinical outcomes of breast cancer. In addition, we also updated the outcome data of the original training cohort (n = 147). Results The original training cohort reached a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05) in disease-free survivals between the three CMTC groups after an additional two years of follow-up (median = 55 months). The prognostic value of the triad classification was reproduced in the second independent internal cohort and the new external validation cohort. CMTC achieved even higher prognostic significance when all available patients were analyzed (n = 4,851). Oncogenic pathways Myc, E2F1, Ras and β-catenin were again implicated in the high-risk groups. Conclusions Both prospective internal cohorts and the independent external cohorts reproduced the triad classification of CMTC and its prognostic significance. CMTC is an independent prognostic predictor, and it outperformed 12 other known prognostic gene signatures, molecular subtype classifications, and all other standard prognostic clinicopathological factors. Our results support further development of CMTC portfolio into a guide for personalized breast cancer treatments. PMID:24996446

Construction of a new, objective prognostic score for terminally ill cancer patients: a multicenter study.

PubMed

Suh, Sang-Yeon; Choi, Youn Seon; Shim, Jae Yong; Kim, Young Sung; Yeom, Chang Hwan; Kim, Daeyoung; Park, Shin Ae; Kim, Sooa; Seo, Ji Yeon; Kim, Su Hyun; Kim, Daegyeun; Choi, Sung-Eun; Ahn, Hong-Yup

2010-02-01

The goal of this study was to develop a new, objective prognostic score (OPS) for terminally ill cancer patients based on an integrated model that includes novel objective prognostic factors. A multicenter study of 209 terminally ill cancer patients from six training hospitals in Korea were prospectively followed until death. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to adjust for the influence of clinical and laboratory variables on survival time. The OPS was calculated from the sum of partial scores obtained from seven significant predictors determined by the final model. The partial score was based on the hazard ratio of each predictor. The accuracy of the OPS was evaluated. The overall median survival was 26 days. On the multivariate analysis, reduced oral intake, resting dyspnea, low performance status, leukocytosis, elevated bilirubin, elevated creatinine, and elevated lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were identified as poor prognostic factors. The range of OPS was from 0.0 to 7.0. For the above cutoff point of 3.0, the 3-week prediction sensitivity was 74.7%, the specificity was 76.5%, and the overall accuracy was 75.5%. We developed the new OPS, without clinician's survival estimates but including a new prognostic factor (LDH). This new instrument demonstrated accurate prediction of the 3-week survival. The OPS had acceptable accuracy in this study population (training set). Further validation is required on an independent population (testing set).

[Skeletal Mass Depletion Is a Negative Prognostic Factor in Gastrointestinal Cancer Patients in the Terminal Stage].

PubMed

Takahashi, Goro; Yamada, Takeshi; Kan, Hayato; Koizumi, Michihiro; Shinji, Seiichi; Yokoyama, Yasuyuki; Iwai, Takuma; Uchida, Eiji

2015-10-01

Skeletal mass depletion has been reported to be a prognostic factor for cancer patients. However, special and expensive devices are required to measure skeletal mass, and this is a major reason why skeletal mass is not used extensively for prognostic marker in clinical settings. We developed a new method to measure skeletal mass for use as a prognostic marker using CT images without special and expensive devices. In this study, we evaluated the usefulness of skeletal mass as measured by this new method as a prognostic marker for gastrointestinal cancer patients. Patients who died from gastrointestinal cancer between March 2010 and October 2013 were included. We measured the right-sided maximum psoas muscle cross sectional area (MPCA) by using CT images before surgery and after the patients developed a terminal condition. The maximum psoas muscle cross sectional area ratio (MPCA-R) was defined as follows: MPCA-R=MPCA before surgery/MPCA after developing a terminal condition. We evaluated the correlation between MPCA-R and survival. Fifty-nine patients were included. The median survival was 44 days, and MPCA-R was significantly correlated with survival (p=0.001). On receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, the area under the curve (AUC) to predict 30-day and 90-day survival was 0.710 and 0.748, respectively. MPCA-R is a new and novel prognostic marker for gastrointestinal cancer patients in terminal condition.

Prognostic value of interim FDG-PET in R-CHOP-treated diffuse large B-cell lymphoma: Systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Adams, Hugo J A; Kwee, Thomas C

2016-10-01

This study aimed to systematically review and meta-analyze the prognostic value of interim (18)F-fluoro-2-deoxy-d-glucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) patients treated with rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisolone (R-CHOP). MEDLINE and EMBASE were systematically searched for suitable studies. Included studies were methodologically appraised, and results were summarized both descriptively and meta-analytically. Nine studies, comprising a total of 996 R-CHOP-treated DLBCL patients, were included. Overall, studies were of moderate methodological quality. The area under the summary receiver operating curve (AUC) of interim FDG-PET in predicting treatment failure and death were 0.651 and 0.817, respectively. There was no heterogeneity in diagnostic odds ratios across available studies (I(2)=0.0%). At multivariable analysis, 2 studies reported interim FDG-PET to have independent prognostic value in addition to the International Prognostic Index (IPI) in predicting treatment failure, whereas 3 studies reported that this was not the case. One study reported interim FDG-PET to have independent prognostic value in addition to the IPI in predicting death, whereas 2 studies reported that this was not the case. In conclusion, interim FDG-PET in R-CHOP-treated DLBCL has some correlation with outcome, but its prognostic value is homogeneously suboptimal across studies and it has not consistently proven to surpass the prognostic potential of the IPI. Moreover, there is a lack of studies that compared interim FDG-PET to the recently developed and superior National Comprehensive Cancer Network-IPI. Therefore, at present there is no scientific base to support the clinical use of interim FDG-PET in R-CHOP-treated DLBCL. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia: current management].

PubMed

Aurran-Schleinitz, T; Arnoulet, C; Ivanov, V; Coso, D; Rey, J; Schiano, J-M; Stoppa, A-M; Bouabdallah, R; Gastaut, J-A

2008-05-01

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is the most common leukaemia in the Western world. Recent advancement in the aetiology, pathophysiology and the development of new therapeutics tools have significantly modified the current management of CLL. The cellular origin of CLL is still unknown. The current main hypothesis will be first briefly described. This review will then focus on the newly defined prognostic factors and the development and use of new drugs for the treatment of CLL. To describe the modern and practical management of CLL, we will compare classical and new prognostic markers. Then, we will discuss the various therapeutic options including chemotherapy and immunotherapy (monoclonal antibodies, allogenic transplantation), and define their current respective indications. These new diagnostic and prognostic markers will allow the characterization of new prognostic subgroups of patients. This will lead to a targeted and individualized therapeutic approach. We will present the first results of clinical trials and the on-going studies conducted in this disease.

Prognostic Stratification of Patients With Advanced Oral Cavity Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

De Paz, Dante; Kao, Huang-Kai; Huang, Yenlin; Chang, Kai-Ping

2017-08-10

Prognosis of advanced oral squamous cell carcinoma remains a challenge for clinicians despite progress in its diagnosis and treatment over the past decades. In this review, we assessed clinicopathological factors and potential biomarkers along with their prognostic relevance in an attempt to develop optimal treatment strategies for these patients. In addition to several pathologic factors that have been proposed to improve prognostic stratification and treatment planning in the eighth edition of the American Joint Committee staging manual on cancer, we reviewed some other imaging and clinicopathological parameters demonstrated to be closely associated with patient prognosis, along with the biomarkers related to novel target or immune therapy. Evaluation of current literature regarding the prognostic stratification used in contemporary clinicopathological studies and progress in the development of targeted or immune therapy may help these patients benefit from tailored and personalized treatment and obtain better oncological results.

Building a gold standard to construct search filters: a case study with biomarkers for oral cancer.

PubMed

Frazier, John J; Stein, Corey D; Tseytlin, Eugene; Bekhuis, Tanja

2015-01-01

To support clinical researchers, librarians and informationists may need search filters for particular tasks. Development of filters typically depends on a "gold standard" dataset. This paper describes generalizable methods for creating a gold standard to support future filter development and evaluation using oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) as a case study. OSCC is the most common malignancy affecting the oral cavity. Investigation of biomarkers with potential prognostic utility is an active area of research in OSCC. The methods discussed here should be useful for designing quality search filters in similar domains. The authors searched MEDLINE for prognostic studies of OSCC, developed annotation guidelines for screeners, ran three calibration trials before annotating the remaining body of citations, and measured inter-annotator agreement (IAA). We retrieved 1,818 citations. After calibration, we screened the remaining citations (n = 1,767; 97.2%); IAA was substantial (kappa = 0.76). The dataset has 497 (27.3%) citations representing OSCC studies of potential prognostic biomarkers. The gold standard dataset is likely to be high quality and useful for future development and evaluation of filters for OSCC studies of potential prognostic biomarkers. The methodology we used is generalizable to other domains requiring a reference standard to evaluate the performance of search filters. A gold standard is essential because the labels regarding relevance enable computation of diagnostic metrics, such as sensitivity and specificity. Librarians and informationists with data analysis skills could contribute to developing gold standard datasets and subsequent filters tuned for their patrons' domains of interest.

Doubt and belief in physicians' ability to prognosticate during critical illness: The perspective of surrogate decision makers

PubMed Central

Zier, Lucas S.; Burack, Jeffrey H.; Micco, Guy; Chipman, Anne K.; Frank, James A.; Luce, John M.; White, Douglas B.

2009-01-01

Objectives: Although discussing a prognosis is a duty of physicians caring for critically ill patients, little is known about surrogate decision-makers' beliefs about physicians' ability to prognosticate. We sought to determine: 1) surrogates' beliefs about whether physicians can accurately prognosticate for critically ill patients; and 2) how individuals use prognostic information in their role as surrogate decision-makers. Design, Setting, and Patients: Multicenter study in intensive care units of a public hospital, a tertiary care hospital, and a veterans' hospital. We conducted semistructured interviews with 50 surrogate decision-makers of critically ill patients. We analyzed the interview transcripts using grounded theory methods to inductively develop a framework to describe surrogates' beliefs about physicians' ability to prognosticate. Validation methods included triangulation by multidisciplinary analysis and member checking. Measurements and Main Results: Overall, 88% (44 of 50) of surrogates expressed doubt about physicians' ability to prognosticate for critically ill patients. Four distinct themes emerged that explained surrogates' doubts about prognostic accuracy: a belief that God could alter the course of the illness, a belief that predicting the future is inherently uncertain, prior experiences where physicians' prognostications were inaccurate, and experiences with prognostication during the patient's intensive care unit stay. Participants also identified several factors that led to belief in physicians' prognostications, such as receiving similar prognostic estimates from multiple physicians and prior experiences with accurate prognostication. Surrogates' doubts about prognostic accuracy did not prevent them from wanting prognostic information. Instead, most surrogate decision-makers view physicians' prognostications as rough estimates that are valuable in informing decisions, but are not determinative. Surrogates identified the act of prognostic disclosure as a key step in preparing emotionally and practically for the possibility that a patient may not survive. Conclusions: Although many surrogate decision-makers harbor some doubt about the accuracy of physicians' prognostications, they highly value discussions about prognosis and use the information for multiple purposes. (Crit Care Med 2008; 36: 2341–2347) PMID:18596630

Review and Analysis of Algorithmic Approaches Developed for Prognostics on CMAPSS Dataset

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ramasso, Emannuel; Saxena, Abhinav

2014-01-01

Benchmarking of prognostic algorithms has been challenging due to limited availability of common datasets suitable for prognostics. In an attempt to alleviate this problem several benchmarking datasets have been collected by NASA's prognostic center of excellence and made available to the Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) community to allow evaluation and comparison of prognostics algorithms. Among those datasets are five C-MAPSS datasets that have been extremely popular due to their unique characteristics making them suitable for prognostics. The C-MAPSS datasets pose several challenges that have been tackled by different methods in the PHM literature. In particular, management of high variability due to sensor noise, effects of operating conditions, and presence of multiple simultaneous fault modes are some factors that have great impact on the generalization capabilities of prognostics algorithms. More than 70 publications have used the C-MAPSS datasets for developing data-driven prognostic algorithms. The C-MAPSS datasets are also shown to be well-suited for development of new machine learning and pattern recognition tools for several key preprocessing steps such as feature extraction and selection, failure mode assessment, operating conditions assessment, health status estimation, uncertainty management, and prognostics performance evaluation. This paper summarizes a comprehensive literature review of publications using C-MAPSS datasets and provides guidelines and references to further usage of these datasets in a manner that allows clear and consistent comparison between different approaches.

An Uncertainty Quantification Framework for Prognostics and Condition-Based Monitoring

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai

2014-01-01

This paper presents a computational framework for uncertainty quantification in prognostics in the context of condition-based monitoring of aerospace systems. The different sources of uncertainty and the various uncertainty quantification activities in condition-based prognostics are outlined in detail, and it is demonstrated that the Bayesian subjective approach is suitable for interpreting uncertainty in online monitoring. A state-space model-based framework for prognostics, that can rigorously account for the various sources of uncertainty, is presented. Prognostics consists of two important steps. First, the state of the system is estimated using Bayesian tracking, and then, the future states of the system are predicted until failure, thereby computing the remaining useful life of the system. The proposed framework is illustrated using the power system of a planetary rover test-bed, which is being developed and studied at NASA Ames Research Center.

Development and validation of a prognostic scoring system for patients with chronic myelomonocytic leukemia.

PubMed

Such, Esperanza; Germing, Ulrich; Malcovati, Luca; Cervera, José; Kuendgen, Andrea; Della Porta, Matteo G; Nomdedeu, Benet; Arenillas, Leonor; Luño, Elisa; Xicoy, Blanca; Amigo, Mari L; Valcarcel, David; Nachtkamp, Kathrin; Ambaglio, Ilaria; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Lorenzo, Ignacio; Cazzola, Mario; Sanz, Guillermo

2013-04-11

The natural course of chronic myelomonocytic leukemia (CMML) is highly variable but a widely accepted prognostic scoring system for patients with CMML is not available. The main aim of this study was to develop a new CMML-specific prognostic scoring system (CPSS) in a large series of 558 patients with CMML (training cohort, Spanish Group of Myelodysplastic Syndromes) and to validate it in an independent series of 274 patients (validation cohort, Heinrich Heine University Hospital, Düsseldorf, Germany, and San Matteo Hospital, Pavia, Italy). The most relevant variables for overall survival (OS) and evolution to acute myeloblastic leukemia (AML) were FAB and WHO CMML subtypes, CMML-specific cytogenetic risk classification, and red blood cell (RBC) transfusion dependency. CPSS was able to segregate patients into 4 clearly different risk groups for OS (P < .001) and risk of AML evolution (P < .001) and its predictive capability was confirmed in the validation cohort. An alternative CPSS with hemoglobin instead of RBC transfusion dependency offered almost identical prognostic capability. This study confirms the prognostic impact of FAB and WHO subtypes, recognizes the importance of RBC transfusion dependency and cytogenetics, and offers a simple and powerful CPSS for accurately assessing prognosis and planning therapy in patients with CMML.

Prognostic value of baseline seric Syndecan-1 in initially unresectable metastatic colorectal cancer patients: a simple biological score.

PubMed

Jary, Marine; Lecomte, Thierry; Bouché, Olivier; Kim, Stefano; Dobi, Erion; Queiroz, Lise; Ghiringhelli, Francois; Etienne, Hélène; Léger, Julie; Godet, Yann; Balland, Jérémy; Lakkis, Zaher; Adotevi, Olivier; Bonnetain, Franck; Borg, Christophe; Vernerey, Dewi

2016-11-15

In first-line metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), baseline prognostic factors allowing death risk and treatment strategy stratification are lacking. Syndecan-1 (CD138) soluble form was never described as a prognostic biomarker in mCRC. We investigated its additional prognostic value for overall survival (OS). mCRC patients with unresectable disease at diagnosis were treated with bevacizumab-based chemotherapy in two independent prospective clinical trials (development set: n = 126, validation set: n = 51, study NCT00489697 and study NCT00544011, respectively). Serums were collected at baseline for CD138 measurement. OS determinants were assessed and, based on the final multivariate model, a prognostic score was proposed. Two independent OS prognostic factors were identified: Lactate Dehydrogenase (LDH) high level (p = 0.0066) and log-CD138 high level (p = 0.0190). The determination of CD138 binary information (cutoff: 75 ng/mL) allowed the assessment of a biological prognostic score with CD138 and LDH values, identifying three risk groups for death (median OS= 38.9, 30.1 and 19.8 months for the low, intermediate and high risk groups, respectively; p < 0.0001). This score had a good discrimination ability (C-index = 0.63). These results were externally confirmed in the validation set. Our study provides robust evidence in favor of the additional baseline soluble CD138 prognostic value for OS, in mCRC patients. A simple biological scoring system is proposed including LDH and CD138 binary status values. © 2016 UICC.

Prognostic factors in patients with metastatic spinal cord compression secondary to melanoma: a systematic review.

PubMed

Hadden, Nicholas J; McIntosh, Jerome R D; Jay, Samuel; Whittaker, Paula J

2018-02-01

Melanoma is one of the most common primary tumours associated with metastatic spinal cord compression (MSCC). The aim of this review is to identify prognostic factors specifically for MSCC secondary to melanoma. A systematic search of literature was performed in MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library to identify studies reporting prognostic factors for patients with MSCC secondary to melanoma. Two studies, involving a total of 39 patients, fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The variables associated with increased survival were receiving postoperative radiotherapy, receiving chemotherapy, perioperative lactate dehydrogenase level less than or equal to 8.0 µkat/l, preoperative haemoglobin level more than 11.5 mg/dl, an interval of 4 or more years between melanoma diagnosis and skeletal metastasis, absence of further skeletal metastases, absence of visceral metastases, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status of 2 or less, two or fewer involved vertebrae, being ambulatory preradiotherapy and an interval of more than 7 days between developing motor deficits and radiotherapy. The variables associated with good functional outcome were slow development of motor dysfunction, good performance status and being ambulatory before radiotherapy. The most important prognostic factors for survival are Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status of 2 or less and absence of visceral metastases. There is a lack of studies looking specifically at prognostic factors for patients with MSCC secondary to melanoma, and the number of patients involved in the existing studies is small.

Prognostic Value of Molecular Markers and Implication for Molecular Targeted Therapies in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma: An Update in an Era of New Targeted Molecules Development.

PubMed

Liu, Mu-Tai; Chen, Mu-Kuan; Huang, Chia-Chun; Huang, Chao-Yuan

2015-02-01

The aim of the study was to evaluate the prognostic significance of molecular biomarkers which could provide information for more accurate prognostication and development of novel therapeutic strategies for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). NPC is a unique malignant epithelial carcinoma of head and neck region, with an intimate association with the Epstein-Barr virus (EBV). Currently, the prediction of NPC prognosis is mainly based on the clinical TNM staging; however, NPC patients with the same clinical stage often present different clinical outcomes, suggesting that the TNM stage is insufficient to precisely predict the prognosis of this disease. In this review, we give an overview of the prognostic value of molecular markers in NPC and discuss potential strategies of targeted therapies for treatment of NPC. Molecular biomarkers, which play roles in abnormal proliferation signaling pathways (such as Wnt/β-catenin pathway), intracellular mitogenic signal aberration (such as hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF)-1α), receptor-mediated aberrations (such as vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF)), tumor suppressors (such as p16 and p27 activity), cell cycle aberrations (such as cyclin D1 and cyclin E), cell adhesion aberrations (such as E-cadherin), apoptosis dysregualtion (such as survivin) and centromere aberration (centromere protein H), are prognostic markers for NPC. Plasma EBV DNA concentrations and EBV-encoded latent membrane proteins are also prognostic markers for NPC. Implication of molecular targeted therapies in NPC was discussed. Such therapies could have potential in combination with different cytotoxic agents to combat and eradicate tumor cells. In order to further improve overall survival for patients with loco-regionally advanced NPC, the development of innovative strategies, including prognostic molecular markers and molecular targeted agents is needed.

Rotor Smoothing and Vibration Monitoring Results for the US Army VMEP

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-06-01

individual component CI detection thresholds, and development of models for diagnostics, prognostics , and anomaly detection . Figure 16 VMEP Server...and prognostics are of current interest. Development of those systems requires large amounts of data (collection, monitoring , manipulation) to capture...development of automated systems and for continuous updating of algorithms to improve detection , classification, and prognostic performance. A test

Local-Level Prognostics Health Management Systems Framework for Passive AdvSMR Components. Interim Report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ramuhalli, Pradeep; Roy, Surajit; Hirt, Evelyn H.

2014-09-12

This report describes research results to date in support of the integration and demonstration of diagnostics technologies for prototypical AdvSMR passive components (to establish condition indices for monitoring) with model-based prognostics methods. The focus of the PHM methodology and algorithm development in this study is at the localized scale. Multiple localized measurements of material condition (using advanced nondestructive measurement methods), along with available measurements of the stressor environment, enhance the performance of localized diagnostics and prognostics of passive AdvSMR components and systems.

[Prognostic factors for schizophrenia during first psychotic episode].

PubMed

Cano, Juan F; Fierro-Urresta, Marco; Vanegas, Claudia R; Alzate, Marcela; Olarte, Ana; Cendales, Ricardo; Córdoba, Rodrigo N

2007-01-01

Reviewing the available literature regarding prognosis for first psychotic episode for developing schizophrenia. A systematic review of studies which have evaluated prognostic determinants for the first psychotic episode and its relationship to schizophrenia was made. 161 articles were reviewed which fulfilled the search criteria and which were adjusted to the purpose of the study. Duration of untreated psychosis (DUP), pre-morbid functioning level, the presence or predominance of negative symptoms, co-morbid consumption of psychoactive substances and psychosocial state were the most influential characteristics for developing schizophrenia in patients presenting a first psychotic episode.

Prognostic factors for patients undergoing vitrified-warmed human embryo transfer cycles: a retrospective cohort study.

PubMed

Takahashi, Toshifumi; Hasegawa, Ayumi; Igarashi, Hideki; Amita, Mitsuyoshi; Matsukawa, Jun; Takehara, Isao; Suzuki, Satoko; Nagase, Satoru

2017-06-01

We examined the prognostic factors for pregnancy in 210 vitrified-warmed embryo transfer (ET) cycles in 121 patients. The univariate analysis showed that age, gravida, the number of cycles associated with infertility caused by endometriosis, the number of previous assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatment cycles, and the number of ICSI procedures were significantly lower in pregnant cycles compared with non-pregnant cycles. The percentages of ET using at least one intact embryo and of ET using at least one embryo that had developed further after warming were significantly higher in pregnant cycles compared with non-pregnant cycles. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that previous ART treatment cycles, ET with at least one intact embryo, and ET using at least one embryo that had developed further were independent prognostic factors for pregnancy in vitrified-warmed ET cycles. We conclude that fewer previous ART treatment cycles, ET using at least one intact embryo, and ET with embryos that have developed further after warming might be favourable prognostic factors for pregnancy in vitrified-warmed ET cycles.

Transitions in Prognostic Awareness Among Terminally Ill Cancer Patients in Their Last 6 Months of Life Examined by Multi-State Markov Modeling.

PubMed

Hsiu Chen, Chen; Wen, Fur-Hsing; Hou, Ming-Mo; Hsieh, Chia-Hsun; Chou, Wen-Chi; Chen, Jen-Shi; Chang, Wen-Cheng; Tang, Siew Tzuh

2017-09-01

Developing accurate prognostic awareness, a cornerstone of preference-based end-of-life (EOL) care decision-making, is a dynamic process involving more prognostic-awareness states than knowing or not knowing. Understanding the transition probabilities and time spent in each prognostic-awareness state can help clinicians identify trigger points for facilitating transitions toward accurate prognostic awareness. We examined transition probabilities in distinct prognostic-awareness states between consecutive time points in 247 cancer patients' last 6 months and estimated the time spent in each state. Prognostic awareness was categorized into four states: (a) unknown and not wanting to know, state 1; (b) unknown but wanting to know, state 2; (c) inaccurate awareness, state 3; and (d) accurate awareness, state 4. Transitional probabilities were examined by multistate Markov modeling. Initially, 59.5% of patients had accurate prognostic awareness, whereas the probabilities of being in states 1-3 were 8.1%, 17.4%, and 15.0%, respectively. Patients' prognostic awareness generally remained unchanged (probabilities of remaining in the same state: 45.5%-92.9%). If prognostic awareness changed, it tended to shift toward higher prognostic-awareness states (probabilities of shifting to state 4 were 23.2%-36.6% for patients initially in states 1-3, followed by probabilities of shifting to state 3 for those in states 1 and 2 [9.8%-10.1%]). Patients were estimated to spend 1.29, 0.42, 0.68, and 3.61 months in states 1-4, respectively, in their last 6 months. Terminally ill cancer patients' prognostic awareness generally remained unchanged, with a tendency to become more aware of their prognosis. Health care professionals should facilitate patients' transitions toward accurate prognostic awareness in a timely manner to promote preference-based EOL decisions. Terminally ill Taiwanese cancer patients' prognostic awareness generally remained stable, with a tendency toward developing higher states of awareness. Health care professionals should appropriately assess patients' readiness for prognostic information and respect patients' reluctance to confront their poor prognosis if they are not ready to know, but sensitively coach them to cultivate their accurate prognostic awareness, provide desired and understandable prognostic information for those who are ready to know, and give direct and honest prognostic information to clarify any misunderstandings for those with inaccurate awareness, thus ensuring that they develop accurate and realistic prognostic knowledge in time to make end-of-life care decisions. © AlphaMed Press 2017.

Nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states for remaining useful life prediction of rechargeable batteries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Dong; Zhao, Yang; Yang, Fangfang; Tsui, Kwok-Leung

2017-09-01

Brownian motion with adaptive drift has attracted much attention in prognostics because its first hitting time is highly relevant to remaining useful life prediction and it follows the inverse Gaussian distribution. Besides linear degradation modeling, nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been developed to model nonlinear degradation. Moreover, the first hitting time distribution of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion has been approximated by time-space transformation. In the previous studies, the drift coefficient is the only hidden state used in state space modeling of the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion. Besides the drift coefficient, parameters of a nonlinear function used in the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion should be treated as additional hidden states of state space modeling to make the nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion more flexible. In this paper, a prognostic method based on nonlinear-drifted Brownian motion with multiple hidden states is proposed and then it is applied to predict remaining useful life of rechargeable batteries. 26 sets of rechargeable battery degradation samples are analyzed to validate the effectiveness of the proposed prognostic method. Moreover, some comparisons with a standard particle filter based prognostic method, a spherical cubature particle filter based prognostic method and two classic Bayesian prognostic methods are conducted to highlight the superiority of the proposed prognostic method. Results show that the proposed prognostic method has lower average prediction errors than the particle filter based prognostic methods and the classic Bayesian prognostic methods for battery remaining useful life prediction.

Prognostic grouping of metastatic prostate cancer using conventional pretreatment prognostic factors.

PubMed

Mikkola, Arto; Aro, Jussi; Rannikko, Sakari; Ruutu, Mirja

2009-01-01

To develop three prognostic groups for disease specific mortality based on the binary classified pretreatment variables age, haemoglobin concentration (Hb), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), prostate-specific antigen (PSA), plasma testosterone and estradiol level in hormonally treated patients with metastatic prostate cancer (PCa). The present study comprised 200 Finnprostate 6 study patients, but data on all variables were not known for every patient. The patients were divided into three prognostic risk groups (Rgs) using the prognostically best set of pretreatment variables. The best set was found by backward stepwise selection and the effect of every excluded variable on the binary classification cut-off points of the remaining variables was checked and corrected when needed. The best group of variables was ALP, PSA, ESR and age. All data were known in 142 patients. Patients were given one risk point each for ALP > 180 U/l (normal value 60-275 U/l), PSA > 35 microg/l, ESR > 80 mm/h and age < 60 years. Three risk groups were formed: Rg-a (0-1 risk points), Rg-b (2 risk points) and Rg-c (3-4 risk points). The risk of death from PCa increased statistically significantly with advancing prognostic group. Patients with metastatic PCa can be divided into three statistically significantly different prognostic risk groups for PCa-specific mortality by using the binary classified pretreatment variables ALP, PSA, ESR and age.

Cost-Utility of a Prognostic Test Guiding Adjuvant Chemotherapy Decisions in Early-Stage Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Stenehjem, David D; Bellows, Brandon K; Yager, Kraig M; Jones, Joshua; Kaldate, Rajesh; Siebert, Uwe; Brixner, Diana I

2016-02-01

A prognostic test was developed to guide adjuvant chemotherapy (ACT) decisions in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) adenocarcinomas. The objective of this study was to compare the cost-utility of the prognostic test to the current standard of care (SoC) in patients with early-stage NSCLC. Lifetime costs (2014 U.S. dollars) and effectiveness (quality-adjusted life-years [QALYs]) of ACT treatment decisions were examined using a Markov microsimulation model from a U.S. third-party payer perspective. Cancer stage distribution and probability of receiving ACT with the SoC were based on data from an academic cancer center. The probability of receiving ACT with the prognostic test was estimated from a physician survey. Risk classification was based on the 5-year predicted NSCLC-related mortality. Treatment benefit with ACT was based on the prognostic score. Discounting at a 3% annual rate was applied to costs and QALYs. Deterministic one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses examined parameter uncertainty. Lifetime costs and effectiveness were $137,403 and 5.45 QALYs with the prognostic test and $127,359 and 5.17 QALYs with the SoC. The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the prognostic test versus the SoC was $35,867/QALY gained. One-way sensitivity analyses indicated the model was most sensitive to the utility of patients without recurrence after ACT and the ACT treatment benefit. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated the prognostic test was cost-effective in 65.5% of simulations at a willingness to pay of $50,000/QALY. The study suggests using a prognostic test to guide ACT decisions in early-stage NSCLC is potentially cost-effective compared with using the SoC based on globally accepted willingness-to-pay thresholds. Providing prognostic information to decision makers may help some patients with high-risk early stage non-small cell lung cancer receive appropriate adjuvant chemotherapy while avoiding the associated toxicities and costs in patients with low-risk disease. This study used an economic model to assess the effectiveness and costs associated with using a prognostic test to guide adjuvant chemotherapy decisions compared with the current standard of care in patients with non-small cell lung cancer. When compared with current standard care, the prognostic test was potentially cost effective at commonly accepted thresholds in the U.S. This study can be used to help inform decision makers who are considering using prognostic tests. ©AlphaMed Press.

Prognostication in Philadelphia Chromosome Negative Myeloproliferative Neoplasms: a Review of the Recent Literature.

PubMed

Zhou, Amy; Afzal, Amber; Oh, Stephen T

2017-10-01

The prognosis for patients with Philadelphia chromosome (Ph)-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) is highly variable. All Ph-negative MPNs carry an increased risk for thrombotic complications, bleeding, and leukemic transformation. Several clinical, biological, and molecular prognostic factors have been identified in recent years, which provide important information in guiding management of patients with Ph-negative MPNs. In this review, we critically evaluate the recent published literature and discuss important new developments in clinical and molecular factors that impact survival, disease transformation, and thrombosis in patients with polycythemia vera, essential thrombocythemia, and primary myelofibrosis. Recent studies have identified several clinical factors and non-driver mutations to have prognostic impact on Ph-negative MPNs independent of conventional risk stratification and prognostic models. In polycythemia vera (PV), leukocytosis, abnormal karyotype, phlebotomy requirement on hydroxyurea, increased bone marrow fibrosis, and mutations in ASXL1, SRSF2, and IDH2 were identified as additional adverse prognostic factors. In essential thrombocythemia (ET), JAK2 V617F mutation, splenomegaly, and mutations in SH2B3, SF3B1, U2AF1, TP53, IDH2, and EZH2 were found to be additional negative prognostic factors. Bone marrow fibrosis and mutations in ASXL1, SRSF2, EZH2, and IDH1/2 have been found to be additional prognostic factors in primary myelofibrosis (PMF). CALR mutations appear to be a favorable prognostic factor in PMF, which has not been clearly demonstrated in ET. The prognosis for patients with PV, ET, and PMF is dependent upon the presence or absence of several clinical, biological, and molecular risk factors. The significance of additional risk factors identified in these recent studies will need further validation in prospective studies to determine how they may be best utilized in the management of these disorders.

Current state of prognostication and risk stratification in myelodysplastic syndromes.

PubMed

Zeidan, Amer M; Gore, Steven D; Padron, Eric; Komrokji, Rami S

2015-03-01

Myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are characterized by significant biologic and clinical heterogeneity. Because of the wide outcome variability, accurate prognostication is vital to high-quality risk-adaptive care of MDS patients. In this review, we discuss the current state of prognostic schemes for MDS and overview efforts aimed at utilizing molecular aberrations for prognostication in clinical practice. Several prognostic instruments have been developed and validated with increasing accuracy and complexity. Oncologists should be aware of the inherent limitations of these prognostic tools as they counsel patients and make clinical decisions. As more therapies are becoming available for MDS, the focus of model development is shifting from prognostic to treatment-specific predictive instruments. In addition to providing additional prognostic data beyond traditional clinical and pathologic parameters, the improved understanding of the genetic landscape and pathophysiologic consequences in MDS may allow the construction of treatment-specific predictive instruments. How to best use the results of molecular mutation testing to inform clinical decision making in MDS is still a work in progress. Important steps in this direction include standardization in performance and interpretation of assays and better understanding of the independent prognostic importance of the recurrent mutations, especially the less frequent ones.

Prognostic indices for early mortality in ischaemic stroke - meta-analysis.

PubMed

Mattishent, K; Kwok, C S; Mahtani, A; Pelpola, K; Myint, P K; Loke, Y K

2016-01-01

Several models have been developed to predict mortality in ischaemic stroke. We aimed to evaluate systematically the performance of published stroke prognostic scores. We searched MEDLINE and EMBASE in February 2014 for prognostic models (published between 2003 and 2014) used in predicting early mortality (<6 months) after ischaemic stroke. We evaluated discriminant ability of the tools through meta-analysis of the area under the curve receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) or c-statistic. We evaluated the following components of study validity: collection of prognostic variables, neuroimaging, treatment pathways and missing data. We identified 18 articles (involving 163 240 patients) reporting on the performance of prognostic models for mortality in ischaemic stroke, with 15 articles providing AUC for meta-analysis. Most studies were either retrospective, or post hoc analyses of prospectively collected data; all but three reported validation data. The iSCORE had the largest number of validation cohorts (five) within our systematic review and showed good performance in four different countries, pooled AUC 0.84 (95% CI 0.82-0.87). We identified other potentially useful prognostic tools that have yet to be as extensively validated as iSCORE - these include SOAR (2 studies, pooled AUC 0.79, 95% CI 0.78-0.80), GWTG (2 studies, pooled AUC 0.72, 95% CI 0.72-0.72) and PLAN (1 study, pooled AUC 0.85, 95% CI 0.84-0.87). Our meta-analysis has identified and summarized the performance of several prognostic scores with modest to good predictive accuracy for early mortality in ischaemic stroke, with the iSCORE having the broadest evidence base. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Clinical implications of six inflammatory biomarkers as prognostic indicators in Ewing sarcoma

PubMed Central

Li, Yong-Jiang; Yang, Xi; Zhang, Wen-Biao; Yi, Cheng; Wang, Feng; Li, Ping

2017-01-01

Cancer-related systemic inflammation responses have been correlated with cancer development and progression. The prognostic significance of several inflammatory indicators, including neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet–lymphocyte ratio (PLR), Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), C-reactive protein to albumin ratio (CRP/Alb ratio), lymphocyte–monocyte ratio (LMR), and neutrophil–platelet score (NPS), were found to be correlated with prognosis in several cancers. However, the prognostic role of these inflammatory biomarkers in Ewing sarcoma has not been evaluated. This study enrolled 122 Ewing patients. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was generated to determine optimal cutoff values; areas under the curves (AUCs) were assessed to show the discriminatory ability of the biomarkers; Kaplan–Meier analysis was conducted to plot the survival curves; and Cox multivariate survival analysis was performed to identify independent prognostic factors. The optimal cutoff values of CRP/Alb ratio, NLR, PLR, and LMR were 0.225, 2.38, 131, and 4.41, respectively. CRP/Alb ratio had a significantly larger AUC than NLR, PLR, LMR, and NPS. Higher levels of CRP/Alb ratio (hazard ratio [HR] 2.41, P=0.005), GPS (HR 2.27, P=0.006), NLR (HR 2.07, P=0.013), and PLR (HR 1.85, P=0.032) were significantly correlated with poor prognosis. As the biomarkers had internal correlations, only the CRP/Alb ratio was involved in the multivariate Cox analysis and remained an independent prognostic indicator. The study demonstrated that CRP/Alb ratio, GPS, and NLR were effective prognostic indicators for patients with Ewing sarcoma, and the CRP/Alb ratio was the most robust prognostic indicator with a discriminatory ability superior to that of the other indicators; however, PLR, LMR, and NPS may not be suitable as prognostic indicators in Ewing sarcoma. PMID:29033609

Do the key prognostic factors for non-specific neck pain have moderation effects? - A study protocol.

PubMed

Balasundaram, Arun Prasad; Robinson, Hilde Stendal; Vøllestad, Nina Køpke

2018-05-01

Neck pain is one of the common musculoskeletal conditions prevalent in the general population in Norway. Patients with neck pain, seek treatment from different health professionals such as general practitioners, physiotherapists, chiropractors and alternative medicine practitioners. The interventions for neck pain are typically provided in a primary care or specialised healthcare setting depending on the general practitioners' referral patterns. Clinicians are interested to know the various prognostic factors that can explain the recovery from neck pain. In order to know this, studies have explored and reported on a range of prognostic factors that contribute to the outcomes in patients with neck pain. This information is currently available only for neck pain following whiplash injury that has a traumatic origin. There is limited information on the role of prognostic factors specifically for non-specific neck pain without a traumatic episode. Moreover, there is a lack of data on whether there are interactions (moderation effects) between the prognostic factors. Therefore, we propose a hypothesis to elucidate whether the same set of prognostic factors found in neck pain associated with whiplash injuries are also identified in patients with neck pain without trauma. Additionally, we hypothesize that the association between a prognostic factor and the outcome variable (s) would be dependent on the third variable, thereby confirming the moderation effects. Clinicians could make informed decisions in the clinical management of neck pain with the knowledge of prognostic factors that explain the outcomes. It could also be used for the development of new interventions or for modifying the existing ones. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic models for complete recovery in ischemic stroke: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Jampathong, Nampet; Laopaiboon, Malinee; Rattanakanokchai, Siwanon; Pattanittum, Porjai

2018-03-09

Prognostic models have been increasingly developed to predict complete recovery in ischemic stroke. However, questions arise about the performance characteristics of these models. The aim of this study was to systematically review and synthesize performance of existing prognostic models for complete recovery in ischemic stroke. We searched journal publications indexed in PUBMED, SCOPUS, CENTRAL, ISI Web of Science and OVID MEDLINE from inception until 4 December, 2017, for studies designed to develop and/or validate prognostic models for predicting complete recovery in ischemic stroke patients. Two reviewers independently examined titles and abstracts, and assessed whether each study met the pre-defined inclusion criteria and also independently extracted information about model development and performance. We evaluated validation of the models by medians of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) or c-statistic and calibration performance. We used a random-effects meta-analysis to pool AUC values. We included 10 studies with 23 models developed from elderly patients with a moderately severe ischemic stroke, mainly in three high income countries. Sample sizes for each study ranged from 75 to 4441. Logistic regression was the only analytical strategy used to develop the models. The number of various predictors varied from one to 11. Internal validation was performed in 12 models with a median AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.84). One model reported good calibration. Nine models reported external validation with a median AUC of 0.80 (95% CI 0.76 to 0.82). Four models showed good discrimination and calibration on external validation. The pooled AUC of the two validation models of the same developed model was 0.78 (95% CI 0.71 to 0.85). The performance of the 23 models found in the systematic review varied from fair to good in terms of internal and external validation. Further models should be developed with internal and external validation in low and middle income countries.

A review on prognostic techniques for non-stationary and non-linear rotating systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kan, Man Shan; Tan, Andy C. C.; Mathew, Joseph

2015-10-01

The field of prognostics has attracted significant interest from the research community in recent times. Prognostics enables the prediction of failures in machines resulting in benefits to plant operators such as shorter downtimes, higher operation reliability, reduced operations and maintenance cost, and more effective maintenance and logistics planning. Prognostic systems have been successfully deployed for the monitoring of relatively simple rotating machines. However, machines and associated systems today are increasingly complex. As such, there is an urgent need to develop prognostic techniques for such complex systems operating in the real world. This review paper focuses on prognostic techniques that can be applied to rotating machinery operating under non-linear and non-stationary conditions. The general concept of these techniques, the pros and cons of applying these methods, as well as their applications in the research field are discussed. Finally, the opportunities and challenges in implementing prognostic systems and developing effective techniques for monitoring machines operating under non-stationary and non-linear conditions are also discussed.

Using prognostic models in CLL to personalize approach to clinical care: Are we there yet?

PubMed

Mina, Alain; Sandoval Sus, Jose; Sleiman, Elsa; Pinilla-Ibarz, Javier; Awan, Farrukh T; Kharfan-Dabaja, Mohamed A

2018-03-01

Four decades ago, two staging systems were developed to help stratify CLL into different prognostic categories. These systems, the Rai and the Binet staging, depended entirely on abnormal exam findings and evidence of anemia and thrombocytopenia. Better understanding of biologic, genetic, and molecular characteristics of CLL have contributed to better appreciating its clinical heterogeneity. New prognostic models, the GCLLSG prognostic index and the CLL-IPI, emerged. They incorporate biologic and genetic information related to CLL and are capable of predicting survival outcomes and cases anticipated to need therapy earlier in the disease course. Accordingly, these newer models are helping develop better informed surveillance strategies and ultimately tailor treatment intensity according to presence (or lack thereof) of certain prognostic markers. This represents a step towards personalizing care of CLL patients. We anticipate that as more prognostic factors continue to be identified, the GCLLSG prognostic index and CLL-IPI models will undergo further revisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic score to predict mortality during TB treatment in TB/HIV co-infected patients.

PubMed

Nguyen, Duc T; Jenkins, Helen E; Graviss, Edward A

2018-01-01

Estimating mortality risk during TB treatment in HIV co-infected patients is challenging for health professionals, especially in a low TB prevalence population, due to the lack of a standardized prognostic system. The current study aimed to develop and validate a simple mortality prognostic scoring system for TB/HIV co-infected patients. Using data from the CDC's Tuberculosis Genotyping Information Management System of TB patients in Texas reported from 01/2010 through 12/2016, age ≥15 years, HIV(+), and outcome being "completed" or "died", we developed and internally validated a mortality prognostic score using multiple logistic regression. Model discrimination was determined by the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC). The model's good calibration was determined by a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow's goodness of fit test. Among the 450 patients included in the analysis, 57 (12.7%) died during TB treatment. The final prognostic score used six characteristics (age, residence in long-term care facility, meningeal TB, chest x-ray, culture positive, and culture not converted/unknown), which are routinely collected by TB programs. Prognostic scores were categorized into three groups that predicted mortality: low-risk (<20 points), medium-risk (20-25 points) and high-risk (>25 points). The model had good discrimination and calibration (AUC = 0.82; 0.80 in bootstrap validation), and a non-significant Hosmer-Lemeshow test p = 0.71. Our simple validated mortality prognostic scoring system can be a practical tool for health professionals in identifying TB/HIV co-infected patients with high mortality risk.

Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 2: prognostic factor research.

PubMed

Riley, Richard D; Hayden, Jill A; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Moons, Karel G M; Abrams, Keith; Kyzas, Panayiotis A; Malats, Núria; Briggs, Andrew; Schroter, Sara; Altman, Douglas G; Hemingway, Harry

2013-01-01

Prognostic factor research aims to identify factors associated with subsequent clinical outcome in people with a particular disease or health condition. In this article, the second in the PROGRESS series, the authors discuss the role of prognostic factors in current clinical practice, randomised trials, and developing new interventions, and explain why and how prognostic factor research should be improved.

Prevalence and prognostic significance of hyperkalemia in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis.

PubMed

Maiwall, Rakhi; Kumar, Suman; Sharma, Manoj Kumar; Wani, Zeeshan; Ozukum, Mulu; Sarin, Shiv Kumar

2016-05-01

The prevalence and clinical significance of hyponatremia in cirrhotics have been well studied; however, there are limited data on hyperkalemia in cirrhotics. We evaluated the prevalence and prognostic significance of hyperkalemia in hospitalized patients with cirrhosis and developed a prognostic model incorporating potassium for prediction of liver-related death in these patients. The training derivative cohort of patients was used for development of prognostic scores (Group A, n = 1160), which were validated in a large prospective cohort of cirrhotic patients. (Group B, n = 2681) of cirrhosis. Hyperkalemia was seen in 189 (14.1%) and 336 (12%) in Group A and Group B, respectively. Potassium showed a significant association that was direct with creatinine (P < 0.001) and urea (P < 0.001) and inverse with sodium (P < 0.001). Mortality was also significantly higher in patients with hyperkalemia (P = 0.0015, Hazard Ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.57). Combination of all these parameters into a single value predictor, that is, renal dysfunction index predicted mortality better than the individual components. Combining renal dysfunction index with other known prognostic markers (i.e. serum bilirubin, INR, albumin, hepatic encephalopathy, and ascites) in the "K" model predicted both short-term and long-term mortality with an excellent accuracy (Concordance-index 0.78 and 0.80 in training and validation cohorts, respectively). This was also superior to Model for End-stage Liver Disease, Model for End-stage liver disease sodium (MELDNa), and Child-Turcott-Pugh scores. Cirrhotics frequently have impaired potassium homeostasis, which has a prognostic significance. Serum potassium correlates directly with serum creatinine and urea and inversely with serum sodium. The model incorporating serum potassium developed from this study ("K"model) can predict death in advanced cirrhotics with an excellent accuracy. © 2015 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Developing and validating a novel metabolic tumor volume risk stratification system for supplementing non-small cell lung cancer staging.

PubMed

Pu, Yonglin; Zhang, James X; Liu, Haiyan; Appelbaum, Daniel; Meng, Jianfeng; Penney, Bill C

2018-06-07

We hypothesized that whole-body metabolic tumor volume (MTVwb) could be used to supplement non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) staging due to its independent prognostic value. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a novel MTVwb risk stratification system to supplement NSCLC staging. We performed an IRB-approved retrospective review of 935 patients with NSCLC and FDG-avid tumor divided into modeling and validation cohorts based on the type of PET/CT scanner used for imaging. In addition, sensitivity analysis was conducted by dividing the patient population into two randomized cohorts. Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses were performed to determine the prognostic value of the MTVwb risk stratification system. The cut-off values (10.0, 53.4 and 155.0 mL) between the MTVwb quartiles of the modeling cohort were applied to both the modeling and validation cohorts to determine each patient's MTVwb risk stratum. The survival analyses showed that a lower MTVwb risk stratum was associated with better overall survival (all p < 0.01), independent of TNM stage together with other clinical prognostic factors, and the discriminatory power of the MTVwb risk stratification system, as measured by Gönen and Heller's concordance index, was not significantly different from that of TNM stage in both cohorts. Also, the prognostic value of the MTVwb risk stratum was robust in the two randomized cohorts. The discordance rate between the MTVwb risk stratum and TNM stage or substage was 45.1% in the modeling cohort and 50.3% in the validation cohort. This study developed and validated a novel MTVwb risk stratification system, which has prognostic value independent of the TNM stage and other clinical prognostic factors in NSCLC, suggesting that it could be used for further NSCLC pretreatment assessment and for refining treatment decisions in individual patients.

Prognostic risk stratification derived from individual patient level data for men with advanced penile squamous cell carcinoma receiving first-line systemic therapy.

PubMed

Pond, Gregory R; Di Lorenzo, Giuseppe; Necchi, Andrea; Eigl, Bernhard J; Kolinsky, Michael P; Chacko, Raju T; Dorff, Tanya B; Harshman, Lauren C; Milowsky, Matthew I; Lee, Richard J; Galsky, Matthew D; Federico, Piera; Bolger, Graeme; DeShazo, Mollie; Mehta, Amitkumar; Goyal, Jatinder; Sonpavde, Guru

2014-05-01

Prognostic factors in men with penile squamous cell carcinoma (PSCC) receiving systemic therapy are unknown. A prognostic classification system in this disease may facilitate interpretation of outcomes and guide rational drug development. We performed a retrospective analysis to identify prognostic factors in men with PSCC receiving first-line systemic therapy for advanced disease. Individual patient level data were obtained from 13 institutions to study prognostic factors in the context of first-line systemic therapy for advanced PSCC. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was conducted to examine the prognostic effect of these candidate factors on progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS): age, stage, hemoglobin, neutrophil count, lymphocyte count, albumin, site of metastasis (visceral or nonvisceral), smoking, circumcision, regimen, ECOG performance status (PS), lymphovascular invasion, precancerous lesion, and surgery following chemotherapy. The effect of different treatments was then evaluated adjusting for factors in the prognostic model. The study included 140 eligible men. Mean age across all men was 57.0 years. Among them, 8.6%, 21.4%, and 70.0% of patients had stage 2, 3, and 4 diseases, respectively; 40.7% had ECOG PS ≥ 1, 47.4% had visceral metastases, and 73.6% received cisplatin-based chemotherapy. The multivariate model of poor prognostic factors included visceral metastases (P<0.001) and ECOG PS ≥ 1 (P<0.001) for both PFS and OS. A risk stratification model constructed with 0, 1, and both poor prognostic factors was internally validated and demonstrated moderate discriminatory ability (c-statistic of 0.657 and 0.677 for OS and PFS, respectively). The median OS for the entire population was 9 months. Median OS was not reached, 8, and 7 months for those with 0, 1, and both risk factors, respectively. Cisplatin-based regimens were associated with better OS (P = 0.017) but not PFS (P = 0.37) compared with noncisplatin-based regimens after adjusting for the 2 prognostic factors. In men with advanced PSCC receiving first-line systemic therapy, visceral metastases and ECOG PS ≥ 1 were poor prognostic factors. A prognostic model including these factors exhibited moderate discriminatory ability for outcomes and warrants external validation. Patients receiving cisplatin-based regimens exhibited better outcomes compared with noncisplatin-based regimens after adjusting for prognostic factors. © 2013 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Quantitative fibronectin to help decision-making in women with symptoms of preterm labour (QUIDS) part 1: Individual participant data meta-analysis and health economic analysis

PubMed Central

Wotherspoon, Lisa M; Boyd, Kathleen A; Morris, Rachel K; Jackson, Lesley; Chandiramani, Manju; David, Anna L; Khalil, Asma; Shennan, Andrew; Hodgetts Morton, Victoria; Lavender, Tina; Khan, Khalid; Harper-Clarke, Susan; Mol, Ben W; Riley, Richard D; Norrie, John; Norman, Jane E

2018-01-01

Introduction The aim of the QUIDS study is to develop a decision support tool for the management of women with symptoms and signs of preterm labour, based on a validated prognostic model using quantitative fetal fibronectin (qfFN) concentration, in combination with clinical risk factors. Methods and analysis The study will evaluate the Rapid fFN 10Q System (Hologic, Marlborough, Massachusetts) which quantifies fFN in a vaginal swab. In part 1 of the study, we will develop and internally validate a prognostic model using an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of existing studies containing women with symptoms of preterm labour alongside fFN measurements and pregnancy outcome. An economic analysis will be undertaken to assess potential cost-effectiveness of the qfFN prognostic model. The primary endpoint will be the ability of the prognostic model to rule out spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days. Six eligible studies were identified by systematic review of the literature and five agreed to provide their IPD (n=5 studies, 1783 women and 139 events of preterm delivery within 7 days of testing). Ethics and dissemination The study is funded by the National Institute of Healthcare Research Health Technology Assessment (HTA 14/32/01). It has been approved by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (16/WS/0068). PROSPERO registration number CRD42015027590. Version Protocol version 2, date 1 November 2016. PMID:29627817

Evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment of clinical trials.

PubMed

Kerr, Kathleen F; Roth, Jeremy; Zhu, Kehao; Thiessen-Philbrook, Heather; Meisner, Allison; Wilson, Francis Perry; Coca, Steven; Parikh, Chirag R

2017-12-01

A potential use of biomarkers is to assist in prognostic enrichment of clinical trials, where only patients at relatively higher risk for an outcome of interest are eligible for the trial. We investigated methods for evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment. We identified five key considerations when considering a biomarker and a screening threshold for prognostic enrichment: (1) clinical trial sample size, (2) calendar time to enroll the trial, (3) total patient screening costs and the total per-patient trial costs, (4) generalizability of trial results, and (5) ethical evaluation of trial eligibility criteria. Items (1)-(3) are amenable to quantitative analysis. We developed the Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool for evaluating biomarkers for prognostic enrichment at varying levels of screening stringency. We demonstrate that both modestly prognostic and strongly prognostic biomarkers can improve trial metrics using Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool. Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool is available as a webtool at http://prognosticenrichment.com and as a package for the R statistical computing platform. In some clinical settings, even biomarkers with modest prognostic performance can be useful for prognostic enrichment. In addition to the quantitative analysis provided by Biomarker Prognostic Enrichment Tool, investigators must consider the generalizability of trial results and evaluate the ethics of trial eligibility criteria.

Prognostic models for predicting posttraumatic seizures during acute hospitalization, and at 1 and 2 years following traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Ritter, Anne C; Wagner, Amy K; Szaflarski, Jerzy P; Brooks, Maria M; Zafonte, Ross D; Pugh, Mary Jo V; Fabio, Anthony; Hammond, Flora M; Dreer, Laura E; Bushnik, Tamara; Walker, William C; Brown, Allen W; Johnson-Greene, Doug; Shea, Timothy; Krellman, Jason W; Rosenthal, Joseph A

2016-09-01

Posttraumatic seizures (PTS) are well-recognized acute and chronic complications of traumatic brain injury (TBI). Risk factors have been identified, but considerable variability in who develops PTS remains. Existing PTS prognostic models are not widely adopted for clinical use and do not reflect current trends in injury, diagnosis, or care. We aimed to develop and internally validate preliminary prognostic regression models to predict PTS during acute care hospitalization, and at year 1 and year 2 postinjury. Prognostic models predicting PTS during acute care hospitalization and year 1 and year 2 post-injury were developed using a recent (2011-2014) cohort from the TBI Model Systems National Database. Potential PTS predictors were selected based on previous literature and biologic plausibility. Bivariable logistic regression identified variables with a p-value < 0.20 that were used to fit initial prognostic models. Multivariable logistic regression modeling with backward-stepwise elimination was used to determine reduced prognostic models and to internally validate using 1,000 bootstrap samples. Fit statistics were calculated, correcting for overfitting (optimism). The prognostic models identified sex, craniotomy, contusion load, and pre-injury limitation in learning/remembering/concentrating as significant PTS predictors during acute hospitalization. Significant predictors of PTS at year 1 were subdural hematoma (SDH), contusion load, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, duration of posttraumatic amnesia, preinjury mental health treatment/psychiatric hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Year 2 significant predictors were similar to those of year 1: SDH, intraparenchymal fragment, craniotomy, craniectomy, seizure during acute hospitalization, and preinjury incarceration. Corrected concordance (C) statistics were 0.599, 0.747, and 0.716 for acute hospitalization, year 1, and year 2 models, respectively. The prognostic model for PTS during acute hospitalization did not discriminate well. Year 1 and year 2 models showed fair to good predictive validity for PTS. Cranial surgery, although medically necessary, requires ongoing research regarding potential benefits of increased monitoring for signs of epileptogenesis, PTS prophylaxis, and/or rehabilitation/social support. Future studies should externally validate models and determine clinical utility. Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 International League Against Epilepsy.

Prediction of overall survival for metastatic pancreatic cancer: Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram with data from open clinical trial and real-world study.

PubMed

Hang, Junjie; Wu, Lixia; Zhu, Lina; Sun, Zhiqiang; Wang, Ge; Pan, Jingjing; Zheng, Suhua; Xu, Kequn; Du, Jiadi; Jiang, Hua

2018-06-01

It is necessary to develop prognostic tools of metastatic pancreatic cancer (MPC) for optimizing therapeutic strategies. Thus, we tried to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram of MPC. Data from 3 clinical trials (NCT00844649, NCT01124786, and NCT00574275) and 133 Chinese MPC patients were used for analysis. The former 2 trials were taken as the training cohort while NCT00574275 was used as the validation cohort. In addition, 133 MPC patients treated in China were taken as the testing cohort. Cox regression model was used to investigate prognostic factors in the training cohort. With these factors, we established a nomogram and verified it by Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration plots. Furthermore, the nomogram was externally validated in the validation cohort and testing cohort. In the training cohort (n = 445), performance status, liver metastasis, Carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9) log-value, absolute neutrophil count (ANC), and albumin were independent prognostic factors for overall survival (OS). A nomogram was established with these factors to predict OS and survival probabilities. The nomogram showed an acceptable discrimination ability (C-index: .683) and good calibration, and was further externally validated in the validation cohort (n = 273, C-index: .699) and testing cohort (n = 133, C-index: .653).The nomogram total points (NTP) had the potential to stratify patients into 3-risk groups with median OS of 11.7, 7.0 and 3.7 months (P < .001), respectively. In conclusion, the prognostic nomogram with NTP can predict OS for patients with MPC with considerable accuracy. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prognostic Impact of Indocyanine Green Plasma Disappearance Rate in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients after Radiofrequency Ablation: A Prognostic Nomogram Study

PubMed Central

Azumi, Motoi; Suda, Takeshi; Terai, Shuji; Akazawa, Kouhei

2017-01-01

Objective Radiofrequency ablation has been used widely for the local ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma, particularly in its early stages. The study aim was to identify significant prognostic factors and develop a predictive nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who have undergone radiofrequency ablation. We also developed the formula to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival based on clinical variables. Methods We retrospectively studied 96 consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who had undergone radiofrequency ablation as a first-line treatment. Independent and significant factors affecting the overall survival were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model, and a prognostic nomogram was developed based on these factors. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by Harrell's concordance index and compared with the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score and Japan Integrated Staging score. Results A multivariate analysis revealed that age, indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate, and log(des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin) level were independent and significant factors influencing the overall survival. The nomogram was based on these three factors. The mean concordance index of the nomogram was 0.74±0.08, which was significantly better than that of conventional staging systems using the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (0.54±0.03) and Japan Integrated Staging score (0.59±0.07). Conclusion This study suggested that the indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate and age at radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin (DCP) are good predictors of the prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after radiofrequency ablation. We successfully developed a nomogram using obtainable variables before treatment. PMID:28458303

Prognostic Impact of Indocyanine Green Plasma Disappearance Rate in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients after Radiofrequency Ablation: A Prognostic Nomogram Study.

PubMed

Azumi, Motoi; Suda, Takeshi; Terai, Shuji; Akazawa, Kouhei

2017-01-01

Objective Radiofrequency ablation has been used widely for the local ablation of hepatocellular carcinoma, particularly in its early stages. The study aim was to identify significant prognostic factors and develop a predictive nomogram for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who have undergone radiofrequency ablation. We also developed the formula to predict the probability of 3- and 5-year overall survival based on clinical variables. Methods We retrospectively studied 96 consecutive patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who had undergone radiofrequency ablation as a first-line treatment. Independent and significant factors affecting the overall survival were selected using a Cox proportional hazards model, and a prognostic nomogram was developed based on these factors. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was determined by Harrell's concordance index and compared with the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score and Japan Integrated Staging score. Results A multivariate analysis revealed that age, indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate, and log (des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin) level were independent and significant factors influencing the overall survival. The nomogram was based on these three factors. The mean concordance index of the nomogram was 0.74±0.08, which was significantly better than that of conventional staging systems using the Cancer of the Liver Italian Program score (0.54±0.03) and Japan Integrated Staging score (0.59±0.07). Conclusion This study suggested that the indocyanine green plasma disappearance rate and age at radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and des-gamma-carboxy-prothrombin (DCP) are good predictors of the prognosis in hepatocellular carcinoma patients after radiofrequency ablation. We successfully developed a nomogram using obtainable variables before treatment.

Variability in Predictions from Online Tools: A Demonstration Using Internet-Based Melanoma Predictors.

PubMed

Zabor, Emily C; Coit, Daniel; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E; McMasters, Kelly M; Michaelson, James S; Stromberg, Arnold J; Panageas, Katherine S

2018-02-22

Prognostic models are increasingly being made available online, where they can be publicly accessed by both patients and clinicians. These online tools are an important resource for patients to better understand their prognosis and for clinicians to make informed decisions about treatment and follow-up. The goal of this analysis was to highlight the possible variability in multiple online prognostic tools in a single disease. To demonstrate the variability in survival predictions across online prognostic tools, we applied a single validation dataset to three online melanoma prognostic tools. Data on melanoma patients treated at Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center between 2000 and 2014 were retrospectively collected. Calibration was assessed using calibration plots and discrimination was assessed using the C-index. In this demonstration project, we found important differences across the three models that led to variability in individual patients' predicted survival across the tools, especially in the lower range of predictions. In a validation test using a single-institution data set, calibration and discrimination varied across the three models. This study underscores the potential variability both within and across online tools, and highlights the importance of using methodological rigor when developing a prognostic model that will be made publicly available online. The results also reinforce that careful development and thoughtful interpretation, including understanding a given tool's limitations, are required in order for online prognostic tools that provide survival predictions to be a useful resource for both patients and clinicians.

Diagnosis and Prognosis of Weapon Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolan, Mary; Catania, Rebecca; deMare, Gregory

2005-01-01

The Prognostics Framework is a set of software tools with an open architecture that affords a capability to integrate various prognostic software mechanisms and to provide information for operational and battlefield decision-making and logistical planning pertaining to weapon systems. The Prognostics NASA Tech Briefs, February 2005 17 Framework is also a system-level health -management software system that (1) receives data from performance- monitoring and built-in-test sensors and from other prognostic software and (2) processes the received data to derive a diagnosis and a prognosis for a weapon system. This software relates the diagnostic and prognostic information to the overall health of the system, to the ability of the system to perform specific missions, and to needed maintenance actions and maintenance resources. In the development of the Prognostics Framework, effort was focused primarily on extending previously developed model-based diagnostic-reasoning software to add prognostic reasoning capabilities, including capabilities to perform statistical analyses and to utilize information pertaining to deterioration of parts, failure modes, time sensitivity of measured values, mission criticality, historical data, and trends in measurement data. As thus extended, the software offers an overall health-monitoring capability.

[Prognosis of survival in advanced cancer].

PubMed

de Arriba Méndez, J J

2007-01-01

Accurate prognoses are important in the care of patients with advanced cancer to assist clinicians in their decision making, and to help patients set their goals and priorities. Several studies have demonstrated that doctors are inaccurate and overly optimistic when predicting the survival of patients with advanced and terminal cancer. To improve prognostic accuracy, clinicians can use a number of factors that have proven to be associated with life expectancy: performance status, some signs and symptoms and some laboratory markers. Prognostic scores including most of the factors are also developed. Patients and their families can benefit from realistic prognostic information in a simple and empathetic manner.

Accelerated Aging Experiments for Capacitor Health Monitoring and Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose Ramon; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

2012-01-01

This paper discusses experimental setups for health monitoring and prognostics of electrolytic capacitors under nominal operation and accelerated aging conditions. Electrolytic capacitors have higher failure rates than other components in electronic systems like power drives, power converters etc. Our current work focuses on developing first-principles-based degradation models for electrolytic capacitors under varying electrical and thermal stress conditions. Prognostics and health management for electronic systems aims to predict the onset of faults, study causes for system degradation, and accurately compute remaining useful life. Accelerated life test methods are often used in prognostics research as a way to model multiple causes and assess the effects of the degradation process through time. It also allows for the identification and study of different failure mechanisms and their relationships under different operating conditions. Experiments are designed for aging of the capacitors such that the degradation pattern induced by the aging can be monitored and analyzed. Experimental setups and data collection methods are presented to demonstrate this approach.

Development and Validation of a Lifecycle-based Prognostics Architecture with Test Bed Validation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hines, J. Wesley; Upadhyaya, Belle; Sharp, Michael

On-line monitoring and tracking of nuclear plant system and component degradation is being investigated as a method for improving the safety, reliability, and maintainability of aging nuclear power plants. Accurate prediction of the current degradation state of system components and structures is important for accurate estimates of their remaining useful life (RUL). The correct quantification and propagation of both the measurement uncertainty and model uncertainty is necessary for quantifying the uncertainty of the RUL prediction. This research project developed and validated methods to perform RUL estimation throughout the lifecycle of plant components. Prognostic methods should seamlessly operate from beginning ofmore » component life (BOL) to end of component life (EOL). We term this "Lifecycle Prognostics." When a component is put into use, the only information available may be past failure times of similar components used in similar conditions, and the predicted failure distribution can be estimated with reliability methods such as Weibull Analysis (Type I Prognostics). As the component operates, it begins to degrade and consume its available life. This life consumption may be a function of system stresses, and the failure distribution should be updated to account for the system operational stress levels (Type II Prognostics). When degradation becomes apparent, this information can be used to again improve the RUL estimate (Type III Prognostics). This research focused on developing prognostics algorithms for the three types of prognostics, developing uncertainty quantification methods for each of the algorithms, and, most importantly, developing a framework using Bayesian methods to transition between prognostic model types and update failure distribution estimates as new information becomes available. The developed methods were then validated on a range of accelerated degradation test beds. The ultimate goal of prognostics is to provide an accurate assessment for RUL predictions, with as little uncertainty as possible. From a reliability and maintenance standpoint, there would be improved safety by avoiding all failures. Calculated risk would decrease, saving money by avoiding unnecessary maintenance. One major bottleneck for data-driven prognostics is the availability of run-to-failure degradation data. Without enough degradation data leading to failure, prognostic models can yield RUL distributions with large uncertainty or mathematically unsound predictions. To address these issues a "Lifecycle Prognostics" method was developed to create RUL distributions from Beginning of Life (BOL) to End of Life (EOL). This employs established Type I, II, and III prognostic methods, and Bayesian transitioning between each Type. Bayesian methods, as opposed to classical frequency statistics, show how an expected value, a priori, changes with new data to form a posterior distribution. For example, when you purchase a component you have a prior belief, or estimation, of how long it will operate before failing. As you operate it, you may collect information related to its condition that will allow you to update your estimated failure time. Bayesian methods are best used when limited data are available. The use of a prior also means that information is conserved when new data are available. The weightings of the prior belief and information contained in the sampled data are dependent on the variance (uncertainty) of the prior, the variance (uncertainty) of the data, and the amount of measured data (number of samples). If the variance of the prior is small compared to the uncertainty of the data, the prior will be weighed more heavily. However, as more data are collected, the data will be weighted more heavily and will eventually swamp out the prior in calculating the posterior distribution of model parameters. Fundamentally Bayesian analysis updates a prior belief with new data to get a posterior belief. The general approach to applying the Bayesian method to lifecycle prognostics consisted of identifying the prior, which is the RUL estimate and uncertainty from the previous prognostics type, and combining it with observational data related to the newer prognostics type. The resulting lifecycle prognostics algorithm uses all available information throughout the component lifecycle.« less

DGKI methylation status modulates the prognostic value of MGMT in glioblastoma patients treated with combined radio-chemotherapy with temozolomide.

PubMed

Etcheverry, Amandine; Aubry, Marc; Idbaih, Ahmed; Vauleon, Elodie; Marie, Yannick; Menei, Philippe; Boniface, Rachel; Figarella-Branger, Dominique; Karayan-Tapon, Lucie; Quillien, Veronique; Sanson, Marc; de Tayrac, Marie; Delattre, Jean-Yves; Mosser, Jean

2014-01-01

Consistently reported prognostic factors for glioblastoma (GBM) are age, extent of surgery, performance status, IDH1 mutational status, and MGMT promoter methylation status. We aimed to integrate biological and clinical prognostic factors into a nomogram intended to predict the survival time of an individual GBM patient treated with a standard regimen. In a previous study we showed that the methylation status of the DGKI promoter identified patients with MGMT-methylated tumors that responded poorly to the standard regimen. We further evaluated the potential prognostic value of DGKI methylation status. 399 patients with newly diagnosed GBM and treated with a standard regimen were retrospectively included in this study. Survival modelling was performed on two patient populations: intention-to-treat population of all included patients (population 1) and MGMT-methylated patients (population 2). Cox proportional hazard models were fitted to identify the main prognostic factors. A nomogram was developed for population 1. The prognostic value of DGKI promoter methylation status was evaluated on population 1 and population 2. The nomogram-based stratification of the cohort identified two risk groups (high/low) with significantly different median survival. We validated the prognostic value of DGKI methylation status for MGMT-methylated patients. We also demonstrated that the DGKI methylation status identified 22% of poorly responding patients in the low-risk group defined by the nomogram. Our results improve the conventional MGMT stratification of GBM patients receiving standard treatment. These results could help the interpretation of published or ongoing clinical trial outcomes and refine patient recruitment in the future.

Clinicopathological factors associated with survival in patients with breast cancer brain metastasis.

PubMed

Li, Rong; Zhang, Kui; Siegal, Gene P; Wei, Shi

2017-06-01

Brain metastasis from breast cancer generally represents a catastrophic event yet demonstrates substantial biological heterogeneity. There have been limited studies solely focusing on the prognosis of patients with such metastasis. In this study, we carried out a comprehensive analysis in 108 consecutive patients with breast cancer brain metastases between 1997 and 2012 to further define clinicopathological factors associated with early onset of brain metastasis and survival outcomes after development of them. We found that lobular carcinoma, higher clinical stages at diagnosis, and lack of coexisting bone metastasis were significantly associated with a worse brain relapse-free survival when compared with brain-only metastasis. High histologic grade, triple-negative breast cancer, and absence of visceral involvement were unfavorable prognostic factors after brain metastasis. Furthermore, high histologic grade, advanced tumor stages, and lack of coexisting bone involvement indicated a worse overall survival. Thus, the previously established prognostic factors in early stage or advanced breast cancers may not entirely apply to patients with brain metastases. Furthermore, the prognostic significance of the clinicopathological factors differed before and after a patient develops brain metastasis. This knowledge might help in establishing an algorithm to further stratify patients with breast cancer into prognostically significant categories for optimal prevention, screening, and treatment of their brain metastasis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparative prognostic relevance of breast intra-tumoral microvessel density evaluated by CD105 and CD146: A pilot study of 42 cases.

PubMed

Martinez, Leandro Marcelo; Labovsky, Vivian; Calcagno, María de Luján; Davies, Kevin Mauro; Rivello, Hernán Garcia; Wernicke, Alejandra; Calvo, Juan Carlos; Chasseing, Norma Alejandra

2016-04-01

Angiogenesis is a key process for metastatic progression. While it has been established that the evaluation of breast tumoral microvessel density by CD105 marker is a potential prognostic parameter, its evaluation by CD146 marker has been poorly studied. The purpose of this study was to compare the prognostic value of intra-tumoral microvessel density assayed by CD105 and CD146 in early breast cancer patients. 42 women with breast infiltrative ductal carcinoma (I and II-stages) were retrospectively reviewed. Intra-tumoral microvessel density was immunohistochemically examined using antibodies anti-CD105 and CD146 in paraffin-embedded tissues, and their association with classical prognostic-markers, metastatic recurrence, metastasis-free survival and overall survival was analyzed. High microvessel density assessed by CD146 was significantly associated with a higher risk of developing metastasis (p=0.0310) and a shorter metastasis-free survival (p=0.0197). In contrast, when we used the CD105-antibody, we did not find any significant association. Finally, CD146 showed to be an independent predictive indicator for metastasis-free survival (p=0.0055). Our data suggest that the intra-tumoral microvessel density evaluated by CD146 may be a more suitable predictor of metastatic development than that evaluated by CD105 in early breast cancer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Investigation of p16(INK4a) as a prognostic biomarker in oral epithelial dysplasia.

PubMed

Nankivell, Paul; Williams, Hazel; Webster, Keith; Pearson, David; High, Alec; MacLennan, Kenneth; Senguven, Burcu; McConkey, Christopher; Rabbitts, Pamela; Mehanna, Hisham

2014-04-01

Human papilloma virus is a risk factor for oropharyngeal cancer. Evidence for a similar aetiological role in the development of oral dysplasia or its transformation to oral cancer is not as clear. Meta-analyses estimate the prevalence of high-risk human papilloma virus (HPV) serotypes to be three times higher in pre-malignant lesions and cancer than in normal oral mucosa. However, this does not imply a causal relationship. Conflicting results are reported from the few studies examining the prognostic significance of HPV positivity in the development of oral cancer. We aimed to examine the ability of p16(INK4a) protein expression, a surrogate marker of HPV infection, to predict malignant progression in a large cohort of oral dysplasia patients. One hundred forty eight oral dysplasia cases underwent immunohistochemical analysis using a monoclonal antibody against p16(INK4a) . Clinical factors were also collated on each case. Slides were double scored independently by two trained observers. Univariate analyses using both logistic and Cox regression models were performed. Thirty nine of 148 cases progressed to cancer. Ten of 148 cases (7%) were p16(INK4a) positive. High grade of dysplasia (P = 0.0002) and lesion morphology (P = 0.03) were found to be prognostic of malignant progression. p16(INK4a) score was not prognostic in this cohort (P = 0.29). This did not change with a time to event analysis (P = 0.24). Few studies have assessed the aetiological role of HPV in cancer development from dysplastic lesions. Our study, using one of the largest cohorts of oral dysplasia, demonstrated a low rate of p16(INK4a) positivity and was unable to confirm a prognostic ability for this biomarker. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Distilling the Verification Process for Prognostics Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Roychoudhury, Indranil; Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose R.; Goebel, Kai

2013-01-01

The goal of prognostics and health management (PHM) systems is to ensure system safety, and reduce downtime and maintenance costs. It is important that a PHM system is verified and validated before it can be successfully deployed. Prognostics algorithms are integral parts of PHM systems. This paper investigates a systematic process of verification of such prognostics algorithms. To this end, first, this paper distinguishes between technology maturation and product development. Then, the paper describes the verification process for a prognostics algorithm as it moves up to higher maturity levels. This process is shown to be an iterative process where verification activities are interleaved with validation activities at each maturation level. In this work, we adopt the concept of technology readiness levels (TRLs) to represent the different maturity levels of a prognostics algorithm. It is shown that at each TRL, the verification of a prognostics algorithm depends on verifying the different components of the algorithm according to the requirements laid out by the PHM system that adopts this prognostics algorithm. Finally, using simplified examples, the systematic process for verifying a prognostics algorithm is demonstrated as the prognostics algorithm moves up TRLs.

A Distributed Approach to System-Level Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, Indranil

2012-01-01

Prognostics, which deals with predicting remaining useful life of components, subsystems, and systems, is a key technology for systems health management that leads to improved safety and reliability with reduced costs. The prognostics problem is often approached from a component-centric view. However, in most cases, it is not specifically component lifetimes that are important, but, rather, the lifetimes of the systems in which these components reside. The system-level prognostics problem can be quite difficult due to the increased scale and scope of the prognostics problem and the relative Jack of scalability and efficiency of typical prognostics approaches. In order to address these is ues, we develop a distributed solution to the system-level prognostics problem, based on the concept of structural model decomposition. The system model is decomposed into independent submodels. Independent local prognostics subproblems are then formed based on these local submodels, resul ting in a scalable, efficient, and flexible distributed approach to the system-level prognostics problem. We provide a formulation of the system-level prognostics problem and demonstrate the approach on a four-wheeled rover simulation testbed. The results show that the system-level prognostics problem can be accurately and efficiently solved in a distributed fashion.

Validation of the prognostic grouping of the seventh edition of the tumor-nodes-metastasis classification using a large-scale prospective cohort study database of prostate cancer treated with primary androgen deprivation therapy.

PubMed

Kimura, Tomokazu; Onozawa, Mizuki; Miyazaki, Jun; Kawai, Koji; Nishiyama, Hiroyuki; Hinotsu, Shiro; Akaza, Hideyuki

2013-09-01

In the TNM seventh edition, a prognostic grouping for prostate cancer incorporating prostate-specific antigen and Gleason score was advocated. The present study was carried out to evaluate and validate prognostic grouping in prostate cancer patients. The 15 259 study patients treated with primary androgen deprivation therapy were enrolled in the Japan Study Group of Prostate Cancer. Overall survival was stratified by tumor-nodes-metastasis, Gleason score and prostate-specific antigen, and extensively analyzed. The accuracy of grouping systems was evaluated by the concordance index. The 5-year overall survival in prognostic grouping-I, IIA, IIB, III and IV was 90.0%, 88.3%, 84.8%, 80.6% and 57.1%, respectively. When considering subgroup stratification, the 5-year overall survival of subgroups prognostic grouping-IIA, IIB, III and IV was 80.9∼90.5%, 75.4∼91.8%, 75.7∼89.0% and 46.9∼86.2%, respectively. When prognostic grouping-IIB was subclassified into IIB1 (except IIB2) and IIB2 (T1-2b, prostate-specific antigen >20, Gleason score ≥8, and T2c, Gleason score ≥8), the 5-year overall survival of IIB2 was significantly lower than that of IIB1 (79.4% and 87.3%, P < 0.0001). Also, when prognostic grouping-IV was subclassified into IV1 (except IV2) and IV2 (M1, prostate-specific antigen >100 or Gleason score ≥8), the 5-year overall survival of prognostic grouping-IV1 was superior to that of IV2 (72.9% and 49.5%, P < 0.0001). Prognostic groupings were reclassified into modified prognostic groupings, divided into modified prognostic grouping-A (prognostic grouping-I, IIA, and IIB1), modified prognostic grouping-B (prognostic grouping-IIB2 and III), modified prognostic grouping-C (prognostic grouping-IV1) and modified prognostic grouping-D (prognostic grouping-IV2). The concordance index of prognostic grouping and modified prognostic grouping for overall survival was 0.670 and 0.685, respectively. Prognostic grouping could stratify the prognosis of prostate cancer patients. However, there is considerable variation among the prognostic grouping subgroups. Thus, the use of a modified prognostic grouping for patients treated with primary androgen deprivation therapy is advisable. © 2013 The Japanese Urological Association.

Quantitative fibronectin to help decision-making in women with symptoms of preterm labour (QUIDS) part 1: Individual participant data meta-analysis and health economic analysis.

PubMed

Stock, Sarah J; Wotherspoon, Lisa M; Boyd, Kathleen A; Morris, Rachel K; Dorling, Jon; Jackson, Lesley; Chandiramani, Manju; David, Anna L; Khalil, Asma; Shennan, Andrew; Hodgetts Morton, Victoria; Lavender, Tina; Khan, Khalid; Harper-Clarke, Susan; Mol, Ben W; Riley, Richard D; Norrie, John; Norman, Jane E

2018-04-07

The aim of the QUIDS study is to develop a decision support tool for the management of women with symptoms and signs of preterm labour, based on a validated prognostic model using quantitative fetal fibronectin (qfFN) concentration, in combination with clinical risk factors. The study will evaluate the Rapid fFN 10Q System (Hologic, Marlborough, Massachusetts) which quantifies fFN in a vaginal swab. In part 1 of the study, we will develop and internally validate a prognostic model using an individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis of existing studies containing women with symptoms of preterm labour alongside fFN measurements and pregnancy outcome. An economic analysis will be undertaken to assess potential cost-effectiveness of the qfFN prognostic model. The primary endpoint will be the ability of the prognostic model to rule out spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days. Six eligible studies were identified by systematic review of the literature and five agreed to provide their IPD (n=5 studies, 1783 women and 139 events of preterm delivery within 7 days of testing). The study is funded by the National Institute of Healthcare Research Health Technology Assessment (HTA 14/32/01). It has been approved by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (16/WS/0068). CRD42015027590. Protocol version 2, date 1 November 2016. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Conceptualizing prognostic awareness in advanced cancer: a systematic review.

PubMed

Applebaum, Allison J; Kolva, Elissa A; Kulikowski, Julia R; Jacobs, Jordana D; DeRosa, Antonio; Lichtenthal, Wendy G; Olden, Megan E; Rosenfeld, Barry; Breitbart, William

2014-09-01

This systematic review synthesizes the complex literature on prognostic awareness in cancer. A total of 37 studies examining cancer patients' understanding of their prognosis were included. Prognostic awareness definitions and assessment methods were inconsistent across studies. A surprisingly high percentage of patients (up to 75%) were unaware of their poor prognosis, and in several studies, even their cancer diagnosis (up to 96%), particularly in studies conducted outside of North America. This review highlights surprisingly low rates of prognostic awareness in patients with advanced cancer as well as discrepancies in prognostic awareness assessment, suggesting the need for empirically validated measures of prognostic awareness. © The Author(s) 2013.

Conceptualizing prognostic awareness in advanced cancer: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Applebaum, Allison J; Kolva, Elissa A; Kulikowski, Julia R; Jacobs, Jordana D; DeRosa, Antonio; Lichtenthal, Wendy G; Olden, Megan E; Rosenfeld, Barry; Breitbart, William

2015-01-01

This systematic review synthesizes the complex literature on prognostic awareness in cancer. A total of 37 studies examining cancer patients’ understanding of their prognosis were included. Prognostic awareness definitions and assessment methods were inconsistent across studies. A surprisingly high percentage of patients (up to 75%) were unaware of their poor prognosis, and in several studies, even their cancer diagnosis (up to 96%), particularly in studies conducted outside of North America. This review highlights surprisingly low rates of prognostic awareness in patients with advanced cancer as well as discrepancies in prognostic awareness assessment, suggesting the need for empirically validated measures of prognostic awareness. PMID:24157936

Predicting stabilizing treatment outcomes for complex posttraumatic stress disorder and dissociative identity disorder: an expertise-based prognostic model.

PubMed

Baars, Erik W; van der Hart, Onno; Nijenhuis, Ellert R S; Chu, James A; Glas, Gerrit; Draijer, Nel

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an expertise-based prognostic model for the treatment of complex posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and dissociative identity disorder (DID). We developed a survey in 2 rounds: In the first round we surveyed 42 experienced therapists (22 DID and 20 complex PTSD therapists), and in the second round we surveyed a subset of 22 of the 42 therapists (13 DID and 9 complex PTSD therapists). First, we drew on therapists' knowledge of prognostic factors for stabilization-oriented treatment of complex PTSD and DID. Second, therapists prioritized a list of prognostic factors by estimating the size of each variable's prognostic effect; we clustered these factors according to content and named the clusters. Next, concept mapping methodology and statistical analyses (including principal components analyses) were used to transform individual judgments into weighted group judgments for clusters of items. A prognostic model, based on consensually determined estimates of effect sizes, of 8 clusters containing 51 factors for both complex PTSD and DID was formed. It includes the clusters lack of motivation, lack of healthy relationships, lack of healthy therapeutic relationships, lack of other internal and external resources, serious Axis I comorbidity, serious Axis II comorbidity, poor attachment, and self-destruction. In addition, a set of 5 DID-specific items was constructed. The model is supportive of the current phase-oriented treatment model, emphasizing the strengthening of the therapeutic relationship and the patient's resources in the initial stabilization phase. Further research is needed to test the model's statistical and clinical validity.

A Physics-Based Modeling Framework for Prognostic Studies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2014-01-01

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) methodologies have emerged as one of the key enablers for achieving efficient system level maintenance as part of a busy operations schedule, and lowering overall life cycle costs. PHM is also emerging as a high-priority issue in critical applications, where the focus is on conducting fundamental research in the field of integrated systems health management. The term diagnostics relates to the ability to detect and isolate faults or failures in a system. Prognostics on the other hand is the process of predicting health condition and remaining useful life based on current state, previous conditions and future operating conditions. PHM methods combine sensing, data collection, interpretation of environmental, operational, and performance related parameters to indicate systems health under its actual application conditions. The development of prognostics methodologies for the electronics field has become more important as more electrical systems are being used to replace traditional systems in several applications in the aeronautics, maritime, and automotive fields. The development of prognostics methods for electronics presents several challenges due to the great variety of components used in a system, a continuous development of new electronics technologies, and a general lack of understanding of how electronics fail. Similarly with electric unmanned aerial vehicles, electrichybrid cars, and commercial passenger aircraft, we are witnessing a drastic increase in the usage of batteries to power vehicles. However, for battery-powered vehicles to operate at maximum efficiency and reliability, it becomes crucial to both monitor battery health and performance and to predict end of discharge (EOD) and end of useful life (EOL) events. We develop an electrochemistry-based model of Li-ion batteries that capture the significant electrochemical processes, are computationally efficient, capture the effects of aging, and are of suitable accuracy for reliable EOD prediction in a variety of usage profiles.

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding in patients with hepatic cirrhosis: clinical course and mortality prediction.

PubMed

Afessa, B; Kubilis, P S

2000-02-01

We conducted this study to describe the complications and validate the accuracy of previously reported prognostic indices in predicting the mortality of cirrhotic patients hospitalized for upper GI bleeding. This prospective, observational study included 111 consecutive hospitalizations of 85 cirrhotic patients admitted for GI bleeding. Data obtained included intensive care unit (ICU) admission status, Child-Pugh score, the development of systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), organ failure, and inhospital mortality. The performances of Garden's, Gatta's, and Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II prognostic systems in predicting mortality were assessed. Patients' mean age was 48.7 yr, and the median APACHE II and Child-Pugh scores were 17 and 9, respectively. Their ICU admission rate was 71%. Organ failure developed in 57%, and SIRS in 46% of the patients. Nine patients had acute respiratory distress syndrome, and three patients had hepatorenal syndrome. The inhospital mortality was 21%. The APACHE II, Garden's, and Gatta' s predicted mortality rates were 39%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, and their areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) were 0.78, 0.70, and 0.71, respectively. The AUC for Child-Pugh score was 0.76. SIRS and organ failure develop in many patients with hepatic cirrhosis hospitalized for upper GI bleeding, and are associated with increased mortality. Although the APACHE II prognostic system overestimated the mortality of these patients, the receiver operating characteristic curves did not show significant differences between the various prognostic systems.

External validation of prognostic models to predict risk of gestational diabetes mellitus in one Dutch cohort: prospective multicentre cohort study.

PubMed

Lamain-de Ruiter, Marije; Kwee, Anneke; Naaktgeboren, Christiana A; de Groot, Inge; Evers, Inge M; Groenendaal, Floris; Hering, Yolanda R; Huisjes, Anjoke J M; Kirpestein, Cornel; Monincx, Wilma M; Siljee, Jacqueline E; Van 't Zelfde, Annewil; van Oirschot, Charlotte M; Vankan-Buitelaar, Simone A; Vonk, Mariska A A W; Wiegers, Therese A; Zwart, Joost J; Franx, Arie; Moons, Karel G M; Koster, Maria P H

2016-08-30

 To perform an external validation and direct comparison of published prognostic models for early prediction of the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus, including predictors applicable in the first trimester of pregnancy.  External validation of all published prognostic models in large scale, prospective, multicentre cohort study.  31 independent midwifery practices and six hospitals in the Netherlands.  Women recruited in their first trimester (<14 weeks) of pregnancy between December 2012 and January 2014, at their initial prenatal visit. Women with pre-existing diabetes mellitus of any type were excluded.  Discrimination of the prognostic models was assessed by the C statistic, and calibration assessed by calibration plots.  3723 women were included for analysis, of whom 181 (4.9%) developed gestational diabetes mellitus in pregnancy. 12 prognostic models for the disorder could be validated in the cohort. C statistics ranged from 0.67 to 0.78. Calibration plots showed that eight of the 12 models were well calibrated. The four models with the highest C statistics included almost all of the following predictors: maternal age, maternal body mass index, history of gestational diabetes mellitus, ethnicity, and family history of diabetes. Prognostic models had a similar performance in a subgroup of nulliparous women only. Decision curve analysis showed that the use of these four models always had a positive net benefit.  In this external validation study, most of the published prognostic models for gestational diabetes mellitus show acceptable discrimination and calibration. The four models with the highest discriminative abilities in this study cohort, which also perform well in a subgroup of nulliparous women, are easy models to apply in clinical practice and therefore deserve further evaluation regarding their clinical impact. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Cutaneous Lymphoma International Consortium Study of Outcome in Advanced Stages of Mycosis Fungoides and Sézary Syndrome: Effect of Specific Prognostic Markers on Survival and Development of a Prognostic Model

PubMed Central

Scarisbrick, Julia J.; Prince, H. Miles; Vermeer, Maarten H.; Quaglino, Pietro; Horwitz, Steven; Porcu, Pierluigi; Stadler, Rudolf; Wood, Gary S.; Beylot-Barry, Marie; Pham-Ledard, Anne; Foss, Francine; Girardi, Michael; Bagot, Martine; Michel, Laurence; Battistella, Maxime; Guitart, Joan; Kuzel, Timothy M.; Martinez-Escala, Maria Estela; Estrach, Teresa; Papadavid, Evangelia; Antoniou, Christina; Rigopoulos, Dimitis; Nikolaou, Vassilki; Sugaya, Makoto; Miyagaki, Tomomitsu; Gniadecki, Robert; Sanches, José Antonio; Cury-Martins, Jade; Miyashiro, Denis; Servitje, Octavio; Muniesa, Cristina; Berti, Emilio; Onida, Francesco; Corti, Laura; Hodak, Emilia; Amitay-Laish, Iris; Ortiz-Romero, Pablo L.; Rodríguez-Peralto, Jose L.; Knobler, Robert; Porkert, Stefanie; Bauer, Wolfgang; Pimpinelli, Nicola; Grandi, Vieri; Cowan, Richard; Rook, Alain; Kim, Ellen; Pileri, Alessandro; Patrizi, Annalisa; Pujol, Ramon M.; Wong, Henry; Tyler, Kelly; Stranzenbach, Rene; Querfeld, Christiane; Fava, Paolo; Maule, Milena; Willemze, Rein; Evison, Felicity; Morris, Stephen; Twigger, Robert; Talpur, Rakhshandra; Kim, Jinah; Ognibene, Grant; Li, Shufeng; Tavallaee, Mahkam; Hoppe, Richard T.; Duvic, Madeleine; Whittaker, Sean J.; Kim, Youn H.

2015-01-01

Purpose Advanced-stage mycosis fungoides (MF; stage IIB to IV) and Sézary syndrome (SS) are aggressive lymphomas with a median survival of 1 to 5 years. Clinical management is stage based; however, there is wide range of outcome within stages. Published prognostic studies in MF/SS have been single-center trials. Because of the rarity of MF/SS, only a large collaboration would power a study to identify independent prognostic markers. Patients and Methods Literature review identified the following 10 candidate markers: stage, age, sex, cutaneous histologic features of folliculotropism, CD30 positivity, proliferation index, large-cell transformation, WBC/lymphocyte count, serum lactate dehydrogenase, and identical T-cell clone in blood and skin. Data were collected at specialist centers on patients diagnosed with advanced-stage MF/SS from 2007. Each parameter recorded at diagnosis was tested against overall survival (OS). Results Staging data on 1,275 patients with advanced MF/SS from 29 international sites were included for survival analysis. The median OS was 63 months, with 2- and 5-year survival rates of 77% and 52%, respectively. The median OS for patients with stage IIB disease was 68 months, but patients diagnosed with stage III disease had slightly improved survival compared with patients with stage IIB, although patients diagnosed with stage IV disease had significantly worse survival (48 months for stage IVA and 33 months for stage IVB). Of the 10 variables tested, four (stage IV, age > 60 years, large-cell transformation, and increased lactate dehydrogenase) were independent prognostic markers for a worse survival. Combining these four factors in a prognostic index model identified the following three risk groups across stages with significantly different 5-year survival rates: low risk (68%), intermediate risk (44%), and high risk (28%). Conclusion To our knowledge, this study includes the largest cohort of patients with advanced-stage MF/SS and identifies markers with independent prognostic value, which, used together in a prognostic index, may be useful to stratify advanced-stage patients. PMID:26438120

Cutaneous Lymphoma International Consortium Study of Outcome in Advanced Stages of Mycosis Fungoides and Sézary Syndrome: Effect of Specific Prognostic Markers on Survival and Development of a Prognostic Model.

PubMed

Scarisbrick, Julia J; Prince, H Miles; Vermeer, Maarten H; Quaglino, Pietro; Horwitz, Steven; Porcu, Pierluigi; Stadler, Rudolf; Wood, Gary S; Beylot-Barry, Marie; Pham-Ledard, Anne; Foss, Francine; Girardi, Michael; Bagot, Martine; Michel, Laurence; Battistella, Maxime; Guitart, Joan; Kuzel, Timothy M; Martinez-Escala, Maria Estela; Estrach, Teresa; Papadavid, Evangelia; Antoniou, Christina; Rigopoulos, Dimitis; Nikolaou, Vassilki; Sugaya, Makoto; Miyagaki, Tomomitsu; Gniadecki, Robert; Sanches, José Antonio; Cury-Martins, Jade; Miyashiro, Denis; Servitje, Octavio; Muniesa, Cristina; Berti, Emilio; Onida, Francesco; Corti, Laura; Hodak, Emilia; Amitay-Laish, Iris; Ortiz-Romero, Pablo L; Rodríguez-Peralto, Jose L; Knobler, Robert; Porkert, Stefanie; Bauer, Wolfgang; Pimpinelli, Nicola; Grandi, Vieri; Cowan, Richard; Rook, Alain; Kim, Ellen; Pileri, Alessandro; Patrizi, Annalisa; Pujol, Ramon M; Wong, Henry; Tyler, Kelly; Stranzenbach, Rene; Querfeld, Christiane; Fava, Paolo; Maule, Milena; Willemze, Rein; Evison, Felicity; Morris, Stephen; Twigger, Robert; Talpur, Rakhshandra; Kim, Jinah; Ognibene, Grant; Li, Shufeng; Tavallaee, Mahkam; Hoppe, Richard T; Duvic, Madeleine; Whittaker, Sean J; Kim, Youn H

2015-11-10

Advanced-stage mycosis fungoides (MF; stage IIB to IV) and Sézary syndrome (SS) are aggressive lymphomas with a median survival of 1 to 5 years. Clinical management is stage based; however, there is wide range of outcome within stages. Published prognostic studies in MF/SS have been single-center trials. Because of the rarity of MF/SS, only a large collaboration would power a study to identify independent prognostic markers. Literature review identified the following 10 candidate markers: stage, age, sex, cutaneous histologic features of folliculotropism, CD30 positivity, proliferation index, large-cell transformation, WBC/lymphocyte count, serum lactate dehydrogenase, and identical T-cell clone in blood and skin. Data were collected at specialist centers on patients diagnosed with advanced-stage MF/SS from 2007. Each parameter recorded at diagnosis was tested against overall survival (OS). Staging data on 1,275 patients with advanced MF/SS from 29 international sites were included for survival analysis. The median OS was 63 months, with 2- and 5-year survival rates of 77% and 52%, respectively. The median OS for patients with stage IIB disease was 68 months, but patients diagnosed with stage III disease had slightly improved survival compared with patients with stage IIB, although patients diagnosed with stage IV disease had significantly worse survival (48 months for stage IVA and 33 months for stage IVB). Of the 10 variables tested, four (stage IV, age > 60 years, large-cell transformation, and increased lactate dehydrogenase) were independent prognostic markers for a worse survival. Combining these four factors in a prognostic index model identified the following three risk groups across stages with significantly different 5-year survival rates: low risk (68%), intermediate risk (44%), and high risk (28%). To our knowledge, this study includes the largest cohort of patients with advanced-stage MF/SS and identifies markers with independent prognostic value, which, used together in a prognostic index, may be useful to stratify advanced-stage patients. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Young adult breast cancer patients have a poor prognosis independent of prognostic clinicopathological factors: a study from the Japanese Breast Cancer Registry.

PubMed

Kataoka, Akemi; Iwamoto, Takayuki; Tokunaga, Eriko; Tomotaki, Ai; Kumamaru, Hiraku; Miyata, Hiroaki; Niikura, Naoki; Kawai, Masaaki; Anan, Keisei; Hayashi, Naoki; Masuda, Shinobu; Tsugawa, Koichiro; Aogi, Kenjiro; Ishida, Takanori; Masuoka, Hideji; Iijima, Kotaro; Kinoshita, Takayuki; Nakamura, Seigo; Tokuda, Yutaka

2016-11-01

The aim of this study was to investigate whether young age at onset of breast cancer is an independent prognostic factor in patients from the Japanese Breast Cancer Registry, after adjustment of known clinicopathological prognostic factors. Of the 53,670 patients registered between 2004 and 2006 and surveyed after a 5-year follow-up prognosis, 25,898 breast cancer patients (48.3 %), who were obtained prognostic data, were examined. Clinicopathological factors were compared between young adult (YA; <35 years), middle-aged adult (MA; 35-50 years), and older adult (OA; >50 years) patients. Five-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) rates were studied. YA patients were associated with an advanced TNM stage and aggressive characteristics (e.g. human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-positive or oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative breast cancers) compared to MA and OA patients (P < 0.001). The 5-year DFS and OS rates were 79.4 % and 90.8, 88.5 and 95.0 %, and 87.8 % and 91.6 % for YA, MA, and OA patients, respectively. From the multivariable regression analysis, young age at onset was confirmed as an independent prognostic factor for both DFS (hazard ratio 1.73, 95 % confidence interval 1.42-2.10; P < 0.001) and OS (hazard ratio 1.58, 95 % confidence interval 1.16-2.15; P = 0.004). Young age at onset is an independent negative prognostic factor in breast cancer. Further studies are required to develop new therapeutic strategies for YA breast cancer patients.

A novel literature-based approach to identify genetic and molecular predictors of survival in glioblastoma multiforme: Analysis of 14,678 patients using systematic review and meta-analytical tools.

PubMed

Thuy, Matthew N T; Kam, Jeremy K T; Lee, Geoffrey C Y; Tao, Peter L; Ling, Dorothy Q; Cheng, Melissa; Goh, Su Kah; Papachristos, Alexander J; Shukla, Lipi; Wall, Krystal-Leigh; Smoll, Nicolas R; Jones, Jordan J; Gikenye, Njeri; Soh, Bob; Moffat, Brad; Johnson, Nick; Drummond, Katharine J

2015-05-01

Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) has a poor prognosis despite maximal multimodal therapy. Biomarkers of relevance to prognosis which may also identify treatment targets are needed. A few hundred genetic and molecular predictors have been implicated in the literature, however with the exception of IDH1 and O6-MGMT, there is uncertainty regarding their true prognostic relevance. This study analyses reported genetic and molecular predictors of prognosis in GBM. For each, its relationship with univariate overall survival in adults with GBM is described. A systematic search of MEDLINE (1998-July 2010) was performed. Eligible papers studied the effect of any genetic or molecular marker on univariate overall survival in adult patients with histologically diagnosed GBM. Primary outcomes were median survival difference in months and univariate hazard ratios. Analyses included converting 126 Kaplan-Meier curves and 27 raw data sets into primary outcomes. Seventy-four random effects meta-analyses were performed on 39 unique genetic or molecular factors. Objective criteria were designed to classify factors into the categories of clearly prognostic, weakly prognostic, non-prognostic and promising. Included were 304 publications and 174 studies involving 14,678 unique patients from 33 countries. We identified 422 reported genetic and molecular predictors, of which 52 had ⩾2 studies. IDH1 mutation and O6-MGMT were classified as clearly prognostic, validating the methodology. High Ki-67/MIB-1 and loss of heterozygosity of chromosome 10/10q were classified as weakly prognostic. Four factors were classified as non-prognostic and 13 factors were classified as promising and worthy of additional investigation. Funnel plot analysis did not identify any evidence of publication bias. This study demonstrates a novel literature and meta-analytical based approach to maximise the value that can be derived from the plethora of literature reports of molecular and genetic factors in GBM. Caution is advised in over-interpreting the results due to study limitations. Further research to develop this methodology and improvements in study reporting are suggested. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Associations between interarm differences in blood pressure and cardiovascular disease outcomes: protocol for an individual patient data meta-analysis and development of a prognostic algorithm.

PubMed

Clark, Christopher E; Boddy, Kate; Warren, Fiona C; Taylor, Rod S; Aboyans, Victor; Cloutier, Lyne; McManus, Richard J; Shore, Angela C; Campbell, John L

2017-07-02

Individual cohort studies in various populations and study-level meta-analyses have shown interarm differences (IAD) in blood pressure to be associated with increased cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. However, key questions remain, such as follows: (1) What is the additional contribution of IAD to prognostic risk estimation for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality? (2) What is the minimum cut-off value for IAD that defines elevated risk? (3) Is there a prognostic value of IAD and do different methods of IAD measurement impact on the prognostic value of IAD? We aim to address these questions by conducting an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis. This study will identify prospective cohort studies that measured blood pressure in both arms during recruitment, and invite authors to contribute IPD datasets to this collaboration. All patient data received will be combined into a single dataset. Using one-stage meta-analysis, we will undertake multivariable time-to-event regression modelling, with the aim of developing a new prognostic model for cardiovascular risk estimation that includes IAD. We will explore variations in risk contribution of IAD across predefined population subgroups (eg, hypertensives, diabetics), establish the lower limit of IAD that is associated with additional cardiovascular risk and assess the impact of different methods of IAD measurement on risk prediction. This study will not include any patient identifiable data. Included datasets will already have ethical approval and consent from their sponsors. Findings will be presented to international conferences and published in peer reviewed journals, and we have a comprehensive dissemination strategy in place with integrated patient and public involvement. CRD42015031227. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Identification of novel cytogenetic markers with prognostic significance in a series of 968 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndromes.

PubMed

Solé, Francesc; Luño, Elisa; Sanzo, Carmen; Espinet, Blanca; Sanz, Guillermo F; Cervera, José; Calasanz, María José; Cigudosa, Juan Cruz; Millà, Fuensanta; Ribera, Josep Maria; Bureo, Encarna; Marquez, Maria Luisa; Arranz, Eva; Florensa, Lourdes

2005-09-01

The main prognostic factors in myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) are chromosomal abnormalities, the proportion of blasts in bone marrow and number and degree of cytopenias. A consensus-defined International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) for predicting outcome and planning therapy in MDS has been developed, but its prognostic value in a large and independent series remains unproven. Furthermore, the intermediate-risk cytogenetic subgroup defined by the IPSS includes a miscellaneous number of different single abnormalities of uncertain prognostic significance at present. The main aim of the present study was to identify chromosomal abnormalities with a previously unrecognized good or poor prognosis in order to find new cytogenetic markers with predictive value. We report the cytogenetic findings in a series of 968 patients with primary MDS from the Spanish Cytogenetics Working Group, Grupo Cooperativo Español de Citogenética Hematológica (GCECGH). In this series of 968 MDS patients, we found various cytogenetic aberrations with a new prognostic impact. Complex karyotype, -7/7q- and i(17q) had a poor prognosis; normal karyotype, loss of Y chromosome, deletion 11q, deletion 12p and deletion 20q as single alterations had a good prognosis. Intermediate prognosis aberrations were rearrangements of 3q21q26, trisomy 8, trisomy 9, translocations of 11q and del(17p). Finally, a new group of single or double cytogenetic abnormalities, most of which are considered rare cytogenetic events and are usually included in the intermediate category of the IPSS, showed a trend to poor prognosis. This study suggests that some specific chromosomal abnormalities could be segregated from the IPSS intermediate-risk cytogenetic prognostic subgroup and included in the low risk or in the poor risk groups.

Prognosis Research Strategy (PROGRESS) 3: prognostic model research.

PubMed

Steyerberg, Ewout W; Moons, Karel G M; van der Windt, Danielle A; Hayden, Jill A; Perel, Pablo; Schroter, Sara; Riley, Richard D; Hemingway, Harry; Altman, Douglas G

2013-01-01

Prognostic models are abundant in the medical literature yet their use in practice seems limited. In this article, the third in the PROGRESS series, the authors review how such models are developed and validated, and then address how prognostic models are assessed for their impact on practice and patient outcomes, illustrating these ideas with examples.

[Problem of bioterrorism under modern conditions].

PubMed

Vorob'ev, A A; Boev, B V; Bondarenko, V M; Gintsburg, A L

2002-01-01

It is practically impossible to discuss the problem of bioterrorism (BT) and to develop effective programs of decreasing the losses and expenses suffered by the society from the BT acts without evaluation of the threat and prognosis of consequences based on research and empiric data. Stained international situation following the act of terrorism (attack on the USA) on September 11, 2001, makes the scenarios of the bacterial weapon use (the causative agents of plague, smallpox, anthrax, etc.) by international terrorists most probable. In this connection studies on the analysis and prognostication of the consequences of BT, including mathematical and computer modelling, are necessary. The authors present the results of initiative studies on the analysis and prognostication of the consequences of the hypothetical act of BT with the use of the smallpox causative agent in a city with the population of about 1,000,000 inhabitants. The analytical prognostic studies on the operative analysis and prognostication of the consequences of the BT act with the use of the smallpox causative agent has demonstrated that the mathematical (computer) model of the epidemic outbreak of smallpox is an effective instrument of calculation studies. Prognostic evaluations of the consequences of the act of BT under the conditions of different reaction of public health services (time of detection, interventions) have been obtained with the use of modelling. In addition, the computer model is necessary for training health specialists to react adequately to the acts of BT with the use of different kinds of bacteriological weapons.

Prognostic and predictive implications of Sokal, Euro and EUTOS scores in chronic myeloid leukaemia in the imatinib era-experience from a tertiary oncology centre in Southern India.

PubMed

Kuntegowdanahalli, Lakshmaiah Chinnagiriyappa; Kanakasetty, Govind Babu; Thanky, Aditi Harsh; Dasappa, Lokanatha; Jacob, Linu Abraham; Mallekavu, Suresh Babu; Lakkavalli, Rajeev Krishnappa; Kadabur, Lokesh N; Haleshappa, Rudresha Antapura

2016-01-01

Chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML) is a myeloproliferative disorder. Over the years many prognostic models have been developed to better risk stratify this disease at baseline. Sokal, Euro, and EUTOS scores were developed in varied populations initially receiving various therapies. Here we try to identify their predictive and prognostic implication in a larger population of Indian patients with CML-CP (chronic phase) in the imatinib era.

Prognostic factors for risk stratification of adult cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Yee Mei; Lang, Dora; Lockwood, Craig

Increasing numbers of studies identify new prognostic factors for categorising chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia adult cancer patients into high- or low-risk groups for adverse outcomes. These groupings are used to tailor therapy according to level of risk. However many emerging factors with prognostic significance remain controversial, being based on single studies only. A systematic review was conducted to determine the strength of association of all identified factors associated with the outcomes of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia patients. The participants included were adults of 15 years old and above, with a cancer diagnosis and who underwent cancer treatment.The review focused on clinical factors and their association with the outcomes of cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia at presentation of fever.All quantitative studies published in English which investigated clinical factors for risk stratification of adult cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia were considered.The primary outcome of interest was to identify the clinical factors for risk stratification of adult cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia. Electronic databases searched from their respective inception date up to December 2011 include MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Web of Science, Science-Direct, Scopus and Mednar. The quality of the included studies was subjected to assessment by two independent reviewers. The standardised critical appraisal tool from the Joanna Briggs Institute Meta-Analysis of Statistics Assessment and Review Instrument (JBI-MAStARI) was used to assess the following criteria: representativeness of study population; clearly defined prognostic factors and outcomes; whether potential confounders were addressed and appropriate statistical analysis was undertaken for the study design. Data extraction was performed using a modified version of the standardised extraction tool from the JBI-MAStARI. Prognostic factors and the accompanying odds ratio reported for the significance of these factors that were identified by multivariate regression, were extracted from each included study. Studies results were pooled in statistical meta-analysis using Review Manager 5.1. Where statistical pooling was not possible, the findings were presented in narrative form. Seven studies (four prospective cohort and three retrospective cohort) investigating 22 factors in total were included. Fixed effects meta-analysis showed: hypotension [OR=1.66, 95%CI, 1.14-2.41, p=0.008] and thrombocytopenia [OR=3.92, 95%CI, 2.19-7.01, p<0.00001)] were associated with high-risk of adverse outcomes for febrile neutropenia. Other factors that were statistically significant from single studies included: age of patients, clinical presentation at fever onset, presence or absence of co-morbidities, infections, duration and severity of neutropenia state. Five prognostic factors failed to demonstrate an association between the variables and the outcomes measured and they include: presence of pneumonia, total febrile days, median days to fever, recovery from neutropenia and presence of moderate clinical symptoms in association with Gram-negative bacteraemia. Despite the overall limitations identified in the included studies, this review has provided a synthesis of the best available evidence for the prognostic factors used in risk stratification of febrile neutropenia patients. However, the dynamic aspects of prognostic model development, validation and utilisation have not been addressed adequately thus far. Given the findings of this review, it is timely to address these issues and improve the utilisation of prognostic models in the management of febrile neutropenia patients. The identified factors are similar to the factors in current prognostic models. However, additional factors that were reported to be statistically significant in this review (thrombocytopenia, presence of central venous catheter, and duration and severity of neutropenia) have not previously been included in prognostic models. This review has found these factors may improve the performance of current models by adding or replacing some of the factors. The role of risk stratification of chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia patients continues to evolve as the practice of risk-based therapy has been demonstrated to be beneficial to patients, clinicians and health care organisations. Further research to identify new factors /markers is needed to develop a new model which is reliable and accurate for these patients, regardless of cancer types. A robust and well-validated prognostic model is the key to enhance patient safety in the risk-based management of cancer patients with chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia.

Problems of Pedagogical Creativity Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ibragimkyzy, Shynar; Slambekova, Tolkyn S.; Saylaubay, Yerlan E.; Albytova, Nazymgul

2016-01-01

This article provides analysis of research papers by different scholars, dedicated to topical issues of pedagogical creativity development in the educational process. The authors determined that pedagogical creativity could be considered at five levels: information-reproducing, adaptive-prognostic, innovative, research and creative-prognostic. In…

Prognosis: the "missing link" within the CanMEDS competency framework.

PubMed

Maida, Vincent; Cheon, Paul M

2014-05-13

The concept of prognosis dates back to antiquity. Quantum advances in diagnostics and therapeutics have relegated this once highly valued core competency to an almost negligible role in modern medical practice. Medical curricula are devoid of teaching opportunities focused on prognosis. This void is driven by a corresponding relative dearth within physician competency frameworks. This study aims to assess the level of content related to prognosis within CanMEDS (Canadian Medical Education Directives for Specialists), a leading and prototypical physician competency framework. A quantitative content analysis of CanMEDS competency framework was carried out to measure the extent of this deficiency. Foxit Reader 5.1 (Foxit Corporation), a keyword scanning software, was used to assess the CanMEDS 2005 framework documents of 29 physician specialties and 37 subspecialties across the seven physician roles (medical expert, communicator, collaborator, manager, health advocate, scholar, and professional). The keywords used in the search included prognosis, prognostic, prognosticate, and prognostication. Of the 29 specialties six (20.7%) contained at least one citation of the keyword "prognosis", and one (3.4%) contained one citation of the keyword "prognostic". Of the 37 subspecialties, sixteen (43.2%) contained at least one citation of the keyword "prognosis", and three (8.1%) contained at least one citation of the keyword "prognostic". The terms "prognosticate" and "prognostication" were completely absent from all CanMEDS 2005 documents. Overall, the combined citations for "prognosis" and "prognostic" were linked with the following competency roles: Medical Expert (80.3%), Scholar (11.5%), and Communicator (8.2%). Given the fundamental and foundational importance of prognosis within medical practice, it is recommended that physicians develop appropriate attitudes, skills and knowledge related to the formulation and communication of prognosis. The deficiencies within CanMEDS, demonstrated by this study, should be addressed in advance of the launch of its updated version in 2015.

Prediction of risk of recurrence of venous thromboembolism following treatment for a first unprovoked venous thromboembolism: systematic review, prognostic model and clinical decision rule, and economic evaluation.

PubMed

Ensor, Joie; Riley, Richard D; Jowett, Sue; Monahan, Mark; Snell, Kym Ie; Bayliss, Susan; Moore, David; Fitzmaurice, David

2016-02-01

Unprovoked first venous thromboembolism (VTE) is defined as VTE in the absence of a temporary provoking factor such as surgery, immobility and other temporary factors. Recurrent VTE in unprovoked patients is highly prevalent, but easily preventable with oral anticoagulant (OAC) therapy. The unprovoked population is highly heterogeneous in terms of risk of recurrent VTE. The first aim of the project is to review existing prognostic models which stratify individuals by their recurrence risk, therefore potentially allowing tailored treatment strategies. The second aim is to enhance the existing research in this field, by developing and externally validating a new prognostic model for individual risk prediction, using a pooled database containing individual patient data (IPD) from several studies. The final aim is to assess the economic cost-effectiveness of the proposed prognostic model if it is used as a decision rule for resuming OAC therapy, compared with current standard treatment strategies. Standard systematic review methodology was used to identify relevant prognostic model development, validation and cost-effectiveness studies. Bibliographic databases (including MEDLINE, EMBASE and The Cochrane Library) were searched using terms relating to the clinical area and prognosis. Reviewing was undertaken by two reviewers independently using pre-defined criteria. Included full-text articles were data extracted and quality assessed. Critical appraisal of included full texts was undertaken and comparisons made of model performance. A prognostic model was developed using IPD from the pooled database of seven trials. A novel internal-external cross-validation (IECV) approach was used to develop and validate a prognostic model, with external validation undertaken in each of the trials iteratively. Given good performance in the IECV approach, a final model was developed using all trials data. A Markov patient-level simulation was used to consider the economic cost-effectiveness of using a decision rule (based on the prognostic model) to decide on resumption of OAC therapy (or not). Three full-text articles were identified by the systematic review. Critical appraisal identified methodological and applicability issues; in particular, all three existing models did not have external validation. To address this, new prognostic models were sought with external validation. Two potential models were considered: one for use at cessation of therapy (pre D-dimer), and one for use after cessation of therapy (post D-dimer). Model performance measured in the external validation trials showed strong calibration performance for both models. The post D-dimer model performed substantially better in terms of discrimination (c = 0.69), better separating high- and low-risk patients. The economic evaluation identified that a decision rule based on the final post D-dimer model may be cost-effective for patients with predicted risk of recurrence of over 8% annually; this suggests continued therapy for patients with predicted risks ≥ 8% and cessation of therapy otherwise. The post D-dimer model performed strongly and could be useful to predict individuals' risk of recurrence at any time up to 2-3 years, thereby aiding patient counselling and treatment decisions. A decision rule using this model may be cost-effective for informing clinical judgement and patient opinion in treatment decisions. Further research may investigate new predictors to enhance model performance and aim to further externally validate to confirm performance in new, non-trial populations. Finally, it is essential that further research is conducted to develop a model predicting bleeding risk on therapy, to manage the balance between the risks of recurrence and bleeding. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42013003494. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A nationwide multi-institutional retrospective study to identify prognostic factors and develop a graded prognostic assessment system for patients with brain metastases from uterine corpus and cervical cancer.

PubMed

Hayashi, Nakamasa; Takahashi, Hideaki; Hasegawa, Yuzo; Higuchi, Fumi; Takahashi, Masamichi; Makino, Keishi; Takagaki, Masatoshi; Akimoto, Jiro; Okuda, Takeshi; Okita, Yoshiko; Mitsuya, Koichi; Hirashima, Yasuyuki; Narita, Yoshitaka; Nakasu, Yoko

2017-06-02

The prevalence of brain metastases (BM) from uterine cancer has recently increased because of the improvement of overall survival (OS) of patients with uterine cancer due to its early detection and improved local control as a result of new effective treatments. However, little information is available regarding their clinical characteristics and prognosis, because oncologists have encountered BM from uterine cancer on rare occasions. Records from 81 patients with uterine BM were collected from 10 institutes in Japan. These were used in a multi-institutional study to identify prognostic factors and develop a graded prognostic assessment (GPA) for patients with BM from uterine cancer. Median OS after the development of BM was 7 months (95% confidence interval, 4 to 10 months). Multivariate analysis revealed that there were survival differences according to the existence of extracranial metastases and number of BM. In the present uterine-GPA, a score of 0 was assigned to those patients with ≥5 BM and extracranial metastasis, a score of 2 was assigned to those patients with one to four BM or without extracranial metastasis, and a score of 4 was assigned to those patients with one to four BM and without extracranial metastasis. The median OS for patients with a uterine-GPA scores of 0, 2, and 4 was 3, 7, and 22 months, respectively. A survival analysis confirmed the presence of statistically significant differences between these groups (p < 0.05). The results were validated by data obtained from the National Report of Brain Tumor Registry of Japan. Uterine GPA incorporates two simple clinical parameters of high prognostic significance and can be used to predict the expected survival times in patients with BM from uterine cancer. Its use may help in determining an appropriate treatment for individual patients with BM.

[The prognostic value of variables from the quality assurance program and of the rehabilitation-discharge report of the LVA Baden-Württemberg for early retirement: results of a retrospective cohort-study].

PubMed

Küpper-Nybelen, J; Rothenbacher, D; Jacobi, E; Brenner, H

2003-12-01

Since 1997 the LVA Baden-Württemberg pension insurance agency has implemented an instrument to measure the outcome quality of in-patient rehabilitation. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of various short-term rehabilitation success markers and of variables of the quality assurance program and the rehab-discharge report of the LVA Baden-Württemberg on early retirement by means of a retrospective cohort study. The analysis was based on routinely registered data of patients who underwent in-hospital rehabilitation in a hospital accredited by the LVA Baden-Württemberg between June 1997 and June 1999. Baseline data included information from medical discharge reports and from the quality assurance programme. Follow-up information with regard to disability was collected until July 2000. The prognostic value of the quality assurance programme and of 4 standardized documented items from the medical discharge report was estimated by proportional hazards regression. In this analysis 6,823 patients aged 30-59 years who underwent an in-patient rehab programme between June 1997 and July 1999 in 5 of 6 LVA rehab clinics were included. During follow-up (mean duration: 1.8 years) 908 (13.3%) patients retired because of health-related disability. The variables with the strongest prognostic values were the evaluation of the patient health status by the physician and the patients themselves and the capacity to work. The variables with the highest prognostic value were the evaluation on a 1-6 visual analogue scale; a better assessment by one mark of the health status by physician and patient himself, respectively, was associated with a 53% and 40% reduced risk of disability. Fitness for work at discharge was the most prognostic variable from the discharge report. Patients who were able to work had a 78% reduced risk of disability compared to patients unable to work. Also of prognostic relevance were a positive performance and the duration of the inability to work the year before rehabilitation. The variables of the newly developed quality assurance programme of the LVA clearly demonstrated a prognostic value in terms of risk for subsequent early retirement. It should be considered to include the ability to work at discharge in the programme to further improve its prognostic value.

Development Of A Multivariate Prognostic Model For Pain And Activity Limitation In People With Low Back Disorders Receiving Physiotherapy.

PubMed

Ford, Jon J; Richards BPhysio, Matt C; Surkitt BPhysio, Luke D; Chan BPhysio, Alexander Yp; Slater, Sarah L; Taylor, Nicholas F; Hahne, Andrew J

2018-05-28

To identify predictors for back pain, leg pain and activity limitation in patients with early persistent low back disorders. Prospective inception cohort study; Setting: primary care private physiotherapy clinics in Melbourne, Australia. 300 adults aged 18-65 years with low back and/or referred leg pain of ≥6-weeks and ≤6-months duration. Not applicable. Numerical rating scales for back pain and leg pain as well as the Oswestry Disability Scale. Prognostic factors included sociodemographics, treatment related factors, subjective/physical examination, subgrouping factors and standardized questionnaires. Univariate analysis followed by generalized estimating equations were used to develop a multivariate prognostic model for back pain, leg pain and activity limitation. Fifty-eight prognostic factors progressed to the multivariate stage where 15 showed significant (p<0.05) associations with at least one of the three outcomes. There were five indicators of positive outcome (two types of low back disorder subgroups, paresthesia below waist, walking as an easing factor and low transversus abdominis tone) and 10 indicators of negative outcome (both parents born overseas, deep leg symptoms, longer sick leave duration, high multifidus tone, clinically determined inflammation, higher back and leg pain severity, lower lifting capacity, lower work capacity and higher pain drawing percentage coverage). The preliminary model identifying predictors of low back disorders explained up to 37% of the variance in outcome. This study evaluated a comprehensive range of prognostic factors reflective of both the biomedical and psychosocial domains of low back disorders. The preliminary multivariate model requires further validation before being considered for clinical use. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Multivariate meta-analysis of prognostic factor studies with multiple cut-points and/or methods of measurement.

PubMed

Riley, Richard D; Elia, Eleni G; Malin, Gemma; Hemming, Karla; Price, Malcolm P

2015-07-30

A prognostic factor is any measure that is associated with the risk of future health outcomes in those with existing disease. Often, the prognostic ability of a factor is evaluated in multiple studies. However, meta-analysis is difficult because primary studies often use different methods of measurement and/or different cut-points to dichotomise continuous factors into 'high' and 'low' groups; selective reporting is also common. We illustrate how multivariate random effects meta-analysis models can accommodate multiple prognostic effect estimates from the same study, relating to multiple cut-points and/or methods of measurement. The models account for within-study and between-study correlations, which utilises more information and reduces the impact of unreported cut-points and/or measurement methods in some studies. The applicability of the approach is improved with individual participant data and by assuming a functional relationship between prognostic effect and cut-point to reduce the number of unknown parameters. The models provide important inferential results for each cut-point and method of measurement, including the summary prognostic effect, the between-study variance and a 95% prediction interval for the prognostic effect in new populations. Two applications are presented. The first reveals that, in a multivariate meta-analysis using published results, the Apgar score is prognostic of neonatal mortality but effect sizes are smaller at most cut-points than previously thought. In the second, a multivariate meta-analysis of two methods of measurement provides weak evidence that microvessel density is prognostic of mortality in lung cancer, even when individual participant data are available so that a continuous prognostic trend is examined (rather than cut-points). © 2015 The Authors. Statistics in Medicine Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development of prognostic model for predicting survival after retrograde placement of ureteral stent in advanced gastrointestinal cancer patients and its evaluation by decision curve analysis.

PubMed

Kawano, Shingo; Komai, Yoshinobu; Ishioka, Junichiro; Sakai, Yasuyuki; Fuse, Nozomu; Ito, Masaaki; Kihara, Kazunori; Saito, Norio

2016-10-01

The aim of this study was to determine risk factors for survival after retrograde placement of ureteral stents and develop a prognostic model for advanced gastrointestinal tract (GIT: esophagus, stomach, colon and rectum) cancer patients. We examined the clinical records of 122 patients who underwent retrograde placement of a ureteral stent against malignant extrinsic ureteral obstruction. A prediction model for survival after stenting was developed. We compared its clinical usefulness with our previous model based on the results from nephrostomy cases by decision curve analysis. Median follow-up period was 201 days (8-1490) and 97 deaths occurred. The 1-year survival rate in this cohort was 29%. Based on multivariate analysis, primary site of colon origin, absence of retroperitoneal lymph node metastasis and serum albumin >3g/dL were significantly associated with a prolonged survival time. To develop a prognostic model, we divided the patients into 3 risk groups of favorable: 0-1 factors (N.=53), intermediate: 2 risk factors (N.=54), and poor: 3 risk factors (N.=15). There were significant differences in the survival profiles of these 3 risk groups (P<0.0001). Decision curve analyses revealed that the current model has a superior net benefit than our previous model for most of the examined probabilities. We have developed a novel prognostic model for GIT cancer patients who were treated with retrograde placement of a ureteral stent. The current model should help urologists and medical oncologists to predict survival in cases of malignant extrinsic ureteral obstruction.

Study protocol: quantitative fibronectin to help decision-making in women with symptoms of preterm labour (QUIDS) part 2, UK Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Wotherspoon, Lisa M; Boyd, Kathleen Anne; Morris, Rachel K; Jackson, Lesley; Chandiramani, Manju; David, Anna L; Khalil, Asma; Shennan, Andrew; Hodgetts Morton, Victoria; Lavender, Tina; Khan, Khalid; Harper-Clarke, Susan; Mol, Ben; Riley, Richard D; Norrie, John; Norman, Jane

2018-01-01

Introduction The aim of the QUIDS study is to develop a decision support tool for the management of women with symptoms and signs of preterm labour, based on a validated prognostic model using quantitative fetal fibronectin (fFN) concentration, in combination with clinical risk factors. Methods and analysis The study will evaluate the Rapid fFN 10Q System (Hologic, Marlborough, Massachusetts, USA) which quantifies fFN in a vaginal swab. In QUIDS part 2, we will perform a prospective cohort study in at least eight UK consultant-led maternity units, in women with symptoms of preterm labour at 22+0 to 34+6 weeks gestation to externally validate a prognostic model developed in QUIDS part 1. The effects of quantitative fFN on anxiety will be assessed, and acceptability of the test and prognostic model will be evaluated in a subgroup of women and clinicians (n=30). The sample size is 1600 women (with estimated 96–192 events of preterm delivery within 7 days of testing). Clinicians will be informed of the qualitative fFN result (positive/negative) but be blinded to quantitative fFN result. Research midwives will collect outcome data from the maternal and neonatal clinical records. The final validated prognostic model will be presented as a mobile or web-based application. Ethics and dissemination The study is funded by the National Institute of Healthcare Research Health Technology Assessment (HTA 14/32/01). It has been approved by the West of Scotland Research Ethics Committee (16/WS/0068). Version Protocol V.2, Date 1 November 2016. Trial registration number ISRCTN41598423 and CPMS: 31277. PMID:29674373

Development, validation and psychometric properties of a diagnostic/prognostic tool for breakthrough pain in mixed chronic-pain patients.

PubMed

Samolsky Dekel, Boaz Gedaliahu; Remondini, Francesca; Gori, Alberto; Vasarri, Alessio; Di Nino, GianFranco; Melotti, Rita Maria

2016-02-01

Breakthrough pain (BTP) shows variable prevalence in different clinical contexts of cancer and non-cancer patients. BTP diagnostic tools with demonstrated reliability, validation and prognostic capability are lacking. We report the development, psychometric and validation properties of a diagnostic/prognostic tool, the IQ-BTP, for BTP recognition, its likelihood and clinical features among chronic-pain (CP) patients. n=120 consecutive mixed cancer/non-cancer CP in/outpatients. Development, psychometric analyses and formal validation included: Face/Content validity (by 'experts' opinion and assessing the relationship between the IQ-BTP classes and criteria derived from BTP operational-case-definition); Construct validity, by Principle Component Analysis (PCA); and the strength of Spearman correlation between IQ-BTP classes and the Brief Pain Inventory (BPI) items; Reliability, by Cronbach's alpha statistics. Associations with clinical/demographic moderators were assessed applying χ(2) analysis. Potential-BTP was found in 36.7% of patients (38.4% of non-cancer and 32.4% of cancer patients). Among these the likelihood for BTP diagnosis was 'high' in 25%, 'intermediate' in 41% and, 'low' 34% of patients. Analyses showed significant differences between IQ-BTP classes and between the latter BPI pain-item scores. Correlation between IQ-BTP classes and BPI items was moderate. PCA and scree test identified 3 components accounting for 62.3% of the variance. Cronbach's alpha was 0.71. The IQ-BTP showed satisfactory psychometric and validation properties. With adequate feasibility it enabled the allocating of cancer/non-cancer CP patients in three prognostic classes. Results are sufficient to warrant a subsequent impact study of the IQ-BTP as prognostic model and screening tool for BTP in both CP populations. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Prognostic factors of non-functioning pancreatic neuroendocrine tumor revisited: The value of WHO 2010 classification.

PubMed

Bu, Jiyoung; Youn, Sangmin; Kwon, Wooil; Jang, Kee Taek; Han, Sanghyup; Han, Sunjong; You, Younghun; Heo, Jin Seok; Choi, Seong Ho; Choi, Dong Wook

2018-02-01

Various factors have been reported as prognostic factors of non-functional pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (NF-pNETs). There remains some controversy as to the factors which might actually serve to successfully prognosticate future manifestation and diagnosis of NF-pNETs. As well, consensus regarding management strategy has never been achieved. The aim of this study is to further investigate potential prognostic factors using a large single-center cohort to help determine the management strategy of NF-pNETs. During the time period 1995 through 2013, 166 patients with NF-pNETs who underwent surgery in Samsung Medical Center were entered in a prospective database, and those factors thought to represent predictors of prognosis were tested in uni- and multivariate models. The median follow-up time was 46.5 months; there was a maximum follow-up period of 217 months. The five-year overall survival and disease-free survival rates were 88.5% and 77.0%, respectively. The 2010 WHO classification was found to be the only prognostic factor which affects overall survival and disease-free survival in multivariate analysis. Also, pathologic tumor size and preoperative image tumor size correlated strongly with the WHO grades ( p <0.001, and p <0.001). Our study demonstrates that 2010 WHO classification represents a valuable prognostic factor of NF-pNETs and tumor size on preoperative image correlated with WHO grade. In view of the foregoing, the preoperative image size is thought to represent a reasonable reference with regard to determination and development of treatment strategy of NF-pNETs.

A novel gene expression-based prognostic scoring system to predict survival in gastric cancer

DOE PAGES

Wang, Pin; Wang, Yunshan; Hang, Bo; ...

2016-07-11

Analysis of gene expression patterns in gastric cancer (GC) can help to identify a comprehensive panel of gene biomarkers for predicting clinical outcomes and to discover potential new therapeutic targets. Here, a multi-step bioinformatics analytic approach was developed to establish a novel prognostic scoring system for GC. We first identified 276 genes that were robustly differentially expressed between normal and GC tissues, of which, 249 were found to be significantly associated with overall survival (OS) by univariate Cox regression analysis. The biological functions of 249 genes are related to cell cycle, RNA/ncRNA process, acetylation and extracellular matrix organization. A networkmore » was generated for view of the gene expression architecture of 249 genes in 265 GCs. Finally, we applied a canonical discriminant analysis approach to identify a 53-gene signature and a prognostic scoring system was established based on a canonical discriminant function of 53 genes. The prognostic scores strongly predicted patients with GC to have either a poor or good OS. Our study raises the prospect that the practicality of GC patient prognosis can be assessed by this prognostic scoring system.« less

A novel gene expression-based prognostic scoring system to predict survival in gastric cancer

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wang, Pin; Wang, Yunshan; Hang, Bo

Analysis of gene expression patterns in gastric cancer (GC) can help to identify a comprehensive panel of gene biomarkers for predicting clinical outcomes and to discover potential new therapeutic targets. Here, a multi-step bioinformatics analytic approach was developed to establish a novel prognostic scoring system for GC. We first identified 276 genes that were robustly differentially expressed between normal and GC tissues, of which, 249 were found to be significantly associated with overall survival (OS) by univariate Cox regression analysis. The biological functions of 249 genes are related to cell cycle, RNA/ncRNA process, acetylation and extracellular matrix organization. A networkmore » was generated for view of the gene expression architecture of 249 genes in 265 GCs. Finally, we applied a canonical discriminant analysis approach to identify a 53-gene signature and a prognostic scoring system was established based on a canonical discriminant function of 53 genes. The prognostic scores strongly predicted patients with GC to have either a poor or good OS. Our study raises the prospect that the practicality of GC patient prognosis can be assessed by this prognostic scoring system.« less

Matrix metalloproteinases in cancer: their value as diagnostic and prognostic markers and therapeutic targets.

PubMed

Hadler-Olsen, Elin; Winberg, Jan-Olof; Uhlin-Hansen, Lars

2013-08-01

Biomarkers are used as tools in cancer diagnostics and in treatment stratification. In most cancers, there are increased levels of one or several members of the matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs). This is a family of proteolytic enzymes that are involved in many phases of cancer progression, including angiogenesis, invasiveness, and metastasis. It has therefore been expected that MMPs could serve as both diagnostic and prognostic markers in cancer patients, but despite a huge number of studies, it has been difficult to establish MMPs as cancer biomarkers. In the present paper, we assess some of the challenges associated with MMP research as well as putative reasons for the conflicting data on the value of these enzymes as diagnostic and prognostic markers in cancer patients. We also review the prognostic value of a number of MMPs in patients with lung, colorectal, breast, and prostate cancers. The review also discusses MMPs as potential target molecules for therapeutic agents and new strategies for development of such drugs.

Incidence, characterization and prognostic significance of chromosomal abnormalities in 640 patients with primary myelodysplastic syndromes. Grupo Cooperativo Español de Citogenética Hematológica.

PubMed

Solé, F; Espinet, B; Sanz, G F; Cervera, J; Calasanz, M J; Luño, E; Prieto, F; Granada, I; Hernández, J M; Cigudosa, J C; Diez, J L; Bureo, E; Marqués, M L; Arranz, E; Ríos, R; Martínez Climent, J A; Vallespí, T; Florensa, L; Woessner, S

2000-02-01

Recently, a consensus International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS) for predicting outcome and planning therapy in the myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) has been developed. However, the intermediate-risk cytogenetic subgroup defined by the IPSS includes a miscellaneous number of different single abnormalities for which real prognosis at present is uncertain. The main aims of this study were to evaluate in an independent series the prognostic value of the IPSS and to identify chromosomal abnormalities with a previously unrecognized good or poor prognosis in 640 patients. In univariate analyses, cases with single 1q abnormalities experienced poor survival, whereas those with trisomy 8 had a higher risk of acute leukaemic transformation than the remaining patients (P = 0.004 and P = 0.009 respectively). Patients with single del(12p) had a similar survival to patients with a normal karyotype and showed some trend for a better survival than other cases belonging to the IPSS intermediate-risk cytogenetic subgroup (P = 0.045). Multivariate analyses demonstrated that IPSS cytogenetic prognostic subgroup, proportion of bone marrow blasts and haemoglobin level were the main prognostic factors for survival, and the first two characteristics and platelet count were the best predictors of acute leukaemic transformation risk. A large international co-operative study should be carried out to clarify these findings.

[Diagnostic (STARD) and prognostic (REMARK) studies].

PubMed

Altman, Douglas G; Bossuyt, Patrick Mm

2005-12-01

Deficiencies in how research studies are reported are both well-documented and widespread across all medical specialties and study designs. Although randomised trials have received the most attention in this regard, similar concerns have been expressed about reporting of other types of research including diagnostic and epidemiological studies. If a journal article describes in enough detail what was done at each stage of a study, readers will have enough information to allow them to decide on the merits of the results for themselves. From this simple idea comes the scientific rationale of developing guidelines on how to report research. Recommended processes to produce reporting guidelines have evolved over several years during the preparation of a sequence of reporting guidelines starting with CONSORT and QUOROM in the 1990s. We describe initiatives to develop reporting guidelines for diagnostic accuracy studies (STARD) and tumour marker prognostic studies (REMARK).

Review and Analysis of Algorithmic Approaches Developed for Prognostics on CMAPSS Dataset

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-12-23

publications for benchmarking prognostics algorithms. The turbofan degradation datasets have received over seven thousand unique downloads in the last five...approaches that researchers have taken to implement prognostics using these turbofan datasets. Some unique characteristics of these datasets are also...Description of the five turbofan degradation datasets available from NASA repository. Datasets #Fault Modes #Conditions #Train Units #Test Units

[Acoustic density of sclera as a prognostic factor of peripheral vitreochorioretinal degenerations in myopia: results of 10-years follow-up].

PubMed

Tarutta, E P; Maksimova, M V; Kruzhkova, G V; Khodzhabekian, N V; Markosian, G A

2013-01-01

Prognostic value of acoustic density of sclera (ADS) is studied in development of peripheral vitreochorioretinal degenerations (PVCRD) in myopia. Children aged 8-10 years old with noncomplicated high and moderate myopia were divided into two groups after ADS measurement: 1 with ADS < or = 39dB - unfavorable prognosis, 2 with ADS >39dB - favorable prognosis. Follow-up during 10 years with examinations twice a year confirmed prognosis accuracy: in the 1st group PVCRD developed 2.5 times as often as in the 2nd group (64.6 and 25.6% respectively).

Incidence and prognostic factors for postoperative frozen shoulder after shoulder surgery: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Koorevaar, Rinco C T; Van't Riet, Esther; Ipskamp, Marcel; Bulstra, Sjoerd K

2017-03-01

Frozen shoulder is a potential complication after shoulder surgery. It is a clinical condition that is often associated with marked disability and can have a profound effect on the patient's quality of life. The incidence, etiology, pathology and prognostic factors of postoperative frozen shoulder after shoulder surgery are not known. The purpose of this explorative study was to determine the incidence of postoperative frozen shoulder after various operative shoulder procedures. A second aim was to identify prognostic factors for postoperative frozen shoulder after shoulder surgery. 505 consecutive patients undergoing elective shoulder surgery were included in this prospective cohort study. Follow-up was 6 months after surgery. A prediction model was developed to identify prognostic factors for postoperative frozen shoulder after shoulder surgery using the TRIPOD guidelines. We nominated five potential predictors: gender, diabetes mellitus, type of physiotherapy, arthroscopic surgery and DASH score. Frozen shoulder was identified in 11% of the patients after shoulder surgery and was more common in females (15%) than in males (8%). Frozen shoulder was encountered after all types of operative procedures. A prediction model based on four variables (diabetes mellitus, specialized shoulder physiotherapy, arthroscopic surgery and DASH score) discriminated reasonably well with an AUC of 0.712. Postoperative frozen shoulder is a serious complication after shoulder surgery, with an incidence of 11%. Four prognostic factors were identified for postoperative frozen shoulder: diabetes mellitus, arthroscopic surgery, specialized shoulder physiotherapy and DASH score. The combination of these four variables provided a prediction rule for postoperative frozen shoulder with reasonable fit. Level II, prospective cohort study.

Predicting cancer prognosis using interactive online tools: A systematic review and implications for cancer care providers

PubMed Central

Rabin, Borsika A.; Gaglio, Bridget; Sanders, Tristan; Nekhlyudov, Larissa; Dearing, James W.; Bull, Sheana; Glasgow, Russell E.; Marcus, Alfred

2013-01-01

Cancer prognosis is of keen interest for cancer patients, their caregivers and providers. Prognostic tools have been developed to guide patient-physician communication and decision-making. Given the proliferation of prognostic tools, it is timely to review existing online cancer prognostic tools and discuss implications for their use in clinical settings. Using a systematic approach, we searched the Internet, Medline, and consulted with experts to identify existing online prognostic tools. Each was reviewed for content and format. Twenty-two prognostic tools addressing 89 different cancers were identified. Tools primarily focused on prostate (n=11), colorectal (n=10), breast (n=8), and melanoma (n=6), though at least one tool was identified for most malignancies. The input variables for the tools included cancer characteristics (n=22), patient characteristics (n=18), and comorbidities (n=9). Effect of therapy on prognosis was included in 15 tools. The most common predicted outcome was cancer specific survival/mortality (n=17). Only a few tools (n=4) suggested patients as potential target users. A comprehensive repository of online prognostic tools was created to understand the state-of-the-art in prognostic tool availability and characteristics. Use of these tools may support communication and understanding about cancer prognosis. Dissemination, testing, refinement of existing, and development of new tools under different conditions are needed. PMID:23956026

Geriatric neuro-oncology: from mythology to biology.

PubMed

Weller, Michael; Platten, Michael; Roth, Patrick; Wick, Wolfgang

2011-12-01

Age has remained one of the most important determinants of risk for the development of certain brain tumors, of benefit from and tolerance of brain tumor treatment, and overall outcome. Regarding these three aspects, there are major differences across the spectrum of primary brain tumors depending on specific histology. Here, we review recent advances in understanding the biological basis of the prognostic marker 'age' in neuro-oncology. Contemporary population-based studies confirm the strong prognostic impact of age in many brain tumors. Elderly patients continue to be treated less aggressively than younger patients with the same tumors. However, biological factors may contribute to the negative prognostic impact of age. For instance, among gliomas, mutations of the isocitrate dehydrogenase genes, which are prognostically favorable, are much more common in younger patients. Moreover, complete responses defined by neuroimaging were much less durable in elderly as opposed to younger patients with primary central nervous system lymphoma in the German Primary Central Nervous System Lymphoma Study Group trial. A combination of age-adapted patterns of care and treatment-independent, tumor-intrinsic factors contributes to the poorer outcome of elderly patients with brain tumors. These factors need to be better distinguished and understood in order to improve outcome in elderly brain tumor patients.

A Testbed for Data Fusion for Engine Diagnostics and Prognostics1

DTIC Science & Technology

2002-03-01

detected ; too late to be useful for prognostics development. Table 1. Table of acronyms ACRONYM MEANING AD Anomaly detector...strictly defined points. Determining where we are on the engine health curve is the first step in prognostics . Fault detection / diagnostic reasoning... Detection As described above the ability of the monitoring system to detect an anomaly is especially important for knowledge-based systems, i.e.,

Methodological issues and recommendations for systematic reviews of prognostic studies: an example from cardiovascular disease.

PubMed

Dretzke, Janine; Ensor, Joie; Bayliss, Sue; Hodgkinson, James; Lordkipanidzé, Marie; Riley, Richard D; Fitzmaurice, David; Moore, David

2014-12-03

Prognostic factors are associated with the risk of future health outcomes in individuals with a particular health condition. The prognostic ability of such factors is increasingly being assessed in both primary research and systematic reviews. Systematic review methodology in this area is continuing to evolve, reflected in variable approaches to key methodological aspects. The aim of this article was to (i) explore and compare the methodology of systematic reviews of prognostic factors undertaken for the same clinical question, (ii) to discuss implications for review findings, and (iii) to present recommendations on what might be considered to be 'good practice' approaches. The sample was comprised of eight systematic reviews addressing the same clinical question, namely whether 'aspirin resistance' (a potential prognostic factor) has prognostic utility relative to future vascular events in patients on aspirin therapy for secondary prevention. A detailed comparison of methods around study identification, study selection, quality assessment, approaches to analysis, and reporting of findings was undertaken and the implications discussed. These were summarised into key considerations that may be transferable to future systematic reviews of prognostic factors. Across systematic reviews addressing the same clinical question, there were considerable differences in the numbers of studies identified and overlap between included studies, which could only partially be explained by different study eligibility criteria. Incomplete reporting and differences in terminology within primary studies hampered study identification and selection process across reviews. Quality assessment was highly variable and only one systematic review considered a checklist for studies of prognostic questions. There was inconsistency between reviews in approaches towards analysis, synthesis, addressing heterogeneity and reporting of results. Different methodological approaches may ultimately affect the findings and interpretation of systematic reviews of prognostic research, with implications for clinical decision-making.

The biological and prognostic significance of angiotropism in uveal melanoma.

PubMed

Barnhill, Raymond L; Ye, Mengliang; Batistella, Aude; Stern, Marc-Henri; Roman-Roman, Sergio; Dendale, Rémi; Lantz, Olivier; Piperno-Neumann, Sophie; Desjardins, Laurence; Cassoux, Nathalie; Lugassy, Claire

2017-02-27

Angiotropism is a marker of extravascular migration of melanoma cells along vascular and other structures and a prognostic factor in cutaneous melanoma. Because of this biological and prognostic importance in cutaneous melanoma, angiotropism was studied in uveal melanoma (UM). This retrospective study performed at a single ocular oncology referral center included 89 patients from the study period 2006-2008. All patients were diagnosed with UM from the choroid and/or ciliary body. All patients underwent enucleation for prognostic purposes and definitive therapy. Clinical, histopathological, and molecular variables included patient age, gender, extraocular extension, tumor location (ciliary body or not), optic nerve invasion, angiotropism, neurotropism, melanoma cell type, BAP1 mutation, and monosomy 3. Angiotropism was defined as melanoma cells arrayed along the abluminal vascular surfaces without intravasation in the sclera and/or episcleral tissue. The study included 51 women (57.3%) and 38 men with mean and median age: 63 years (range: 25-92). Mean follow-up was 4.4 years (range: 0.2 to 11). Fifty-three (59.6%) patients developed metastases and 48 (53.9%) were dead from metastases at last follow-up. Other principal variables recorded were angiotropism in 43.8%, extraocular extension in 7.9%, epithelioid/mixed cell type in 73.1%, BAP1 mutation in 41.3%, and monosomy 3 in 53.6% of cases. On multivariate analysis, extraocular extension, angiotropism, and monosomy 3 were predictive of metastasis, whereas tumor diameter, epithelioid cell type, angiotropism, and monosomy 3 were predictive of death. Chi-square test confirmed an association between angiotropism and metastasis and death but none with BAP1 mutation and monosomy 3. In conclusion, angiotropism and monosomy 3 were independent prognostic factors for both metastases and death in UM. However, irrespective of any prognostic value, the true importance of angiotropism is its biological significance as a marker of an alternative metastatic pathway.Laboratory Investigation advance online publication, 27 February 2017; doi:10.1038/labinvest.2017.16.

Prognostic factors for specific lower extremity and spinal musculoskeletal injuries identified through medical screening and training load monitoring in professional football (soccer): a systematic review

PubMed Central

Sergeant, Jamie C; Parkes, Matthew J; Callaghan, Michael J

2017-01-01

Background Medical screening and load monitoring procedures are commonly used in professional football to assess factors perceived to be associated with injury. Objectives To identify prognostic factors (PFs) and models for lower extremity and spinal musculoskeletal injuries in professional/elite football players from medical screening and training load monitoring processes. Methods The MEDLINE, AMED, EMBASE, CINAHL Plus, SPORTDiscus and PubMed electronic bibliographic databases were searched (from inception to January 2017). Prospective and retrospective cohort studies of lower extremity and spinal musculoskeletal injury incidence in professional/elite football players aged between 16 and 40 years were included. The Quality in Prognostic Studies appraisal tool and the modified Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation synthesis approach was used to assess the quality of the evidence. Results Fourteen studies were included. 16 specific lower extremity injury outcomes were identified. No spinal injury outcomes were identified. Meta-analysis was not possible due to heterogeneity and study quality. All evidence related to PFs and specific lower extremity injury outcomes was of very low to low quality. On the few occasions where multiple studies could be used to compare PFs and outcomes, only two factors demonstrated consensus. A history of previous hamstring injuries (HSI) and increasing age may be prognostic for future HSI in male players. Conclusions The assumed ability of medical screening tests to predict specific musculoskeletal injuries is not supported by the current evidence. Screening procedures should currently be considered as benchmarks of function or performance only. The prognostic value of load monitoring modalities is unknown. PMID:29177074

Current management and prognostic factors in physiotherapy practice for patients with shoulder pain: design of a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Karel, Yasmaine H J M; Scholten-Peeters, Wendy G M; Thoomes-de Graaf, Marloes; Duijn, Edwin; Ottenheijm, Ramon P G; van den Borne, Maaike P J; Koes, Bart W; Verhagen, Arianne P; Dinant, Geert-Jan; Tetteroo, Eric; Beumer, Annechien; van Broekhoven, Joost B; Heijmans, Marcel

2013-02-11

Shoulder pain is disabling and has a considerable socio-economic impact. Over 50% of patients presenting in primary care still have symptoms after 6 months; moreover, prognostic factors such as pain intensity, age, disability level and duration of complaints are associated with poor outcome. Most shoulder complaints in this group are categorized as non-specific. Musculoskeletal ultrasound might be a useful imaging method to detect subgroups of patients with subacromial disorders.This article describes the design of a prospective cohort study evaluating the influence of known prognostic and possible prognostic factors, such as findings from musculoskeletal ultrasound outcome and working alliance, on the recovery of shoulder pain. Also, to assess the usual physiotherapy care for shoulder pain and examine the inter-rater reliability of musculoskeletal ultrasound between radiologists and physiotherapists for patients with shoulder pain. A prospective cohort study including an inter-rater reliability study. Patients presenting in primary care physiotherapy practice with shoulder pain are enrolled. At baseline validated questionnaires are used to measure patient characteristics, disease-specific characteristics and social factors. Physical examination is performed according to the expertise of the physiotherapists. Follow-up measurements will be performed 6, 12 and 26 weeks after inclusion. Primary outcome measure is perceived recovery, measured on a 7-point Likert scale. Logistic regression analysis will be used to evaluate the association between prognostic factors and recovery. The ShoCoDiP (Shoulder Complaints and using Diagnostic ultrasound in Physiotherapy practice) cohort study will provide information on current management of patients with shoulder pain in primary care, provide data to develop a prediction model for shoulder pain in primary care and to evaluate whether musculoskeletal ultrasound can improve prognosis.

Accelerated Aging with Electrical Overstress and Prognostics for Power MOSFETs

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saha, Sankalita; Celaya, Jose Ramon; Vashchenko, Vladislav; Mahiuddin, Shompa; Goebel, Kai F.

2011-01-01

Power electronics play an increasingly important role in energy applications as part of their power converter circuits. Understanding the behavior of these devices, especially their failure modes as they age with nominal usage or sudden fault development is critical in ensuring efficiency. In this paper, a prognostics based health management of power MOSFETs undergoing accelerated aging through electrical overstress at the gate area is presented. Details of the accelerated aging methodology, modeling of the degradation process of the device and prognostics algorithm for prediction of the future state of health of the device are presented. Experiments with multiple devices demonstrate the performance of the model and the prognostics algorithm as well as the scope of application. Index Terms Power MOSFET, accelerated aging, prognostics

Long leukocyte telomere length in prostate cancer patients at diagnosis is associated with poor metastasis-free and cancer-specific survival.

PubMed

Svenson, Ulrika; Roos, Göran; Wikström, Pernilla

2017-02-01

Previous studies have suggested that leukocyte telomere length is associated with risk of developing prostate cancer. Investigations of leukocyte telomere length as a prognostic factor in prostate cancer are, however, lacking. In this study, leukocyte telomere length was investigated both as a risk marker, comparing control subjects and patient risk groups (based on serum levels of prostate-specific antigen, tumor differentiation, and tumor stage), and as a prognostic marker for metastasis-free and cancer-specific survival. Relative telomere length was measured by a well-established quantitative polymerase chain reaction method in 415 consecutively sampled individuals. Statistical evaluation included 162 control subjects without cancer development during follow-up and 110 untreated patients with newly diagnosed localized prostate cancer at the time of blood draw. Leukocyte telomere length did not differ significantly between control subjects and patients, or between patient risk groups. Interestingly, however, and in line with our previous results in breast and kidney cancer patients, relative telomere length at diagnosis was an independent prognostic factor. Patients with long leukocyte telomeres (⩾median) had a significantly worse prostate cancer-specific and metastasis-free survival compared to patients with short telomere length. In contrast, for patients who died of other causes than prostate cancer, long relative telomere length was not coupled to shorter survival time. To our knowledge, these results are novel and give further strength to our hypothesis that leukocyte telomere length might be used as a prognostic marker in malignancy.

Real-Time Prognostics of a Rotary Valve Actuator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew

2015-01-01

Valves are used in many domains and often have system-critical functions. As such, it is important to monitor the health of valves and their actuators and predict remaining useful life. In this work, we develop a model-based prognostics approach for a rotary valve actuator. Due to limited observability of the component with multiple failure modes, a lumped damage approach is proposed for estimation and prediction of damage progression. In order to support the goal of real-time prognostics, an approach to prediction is developed that does not require online simulation to compute remaining life, rather, a function mapping the damage state to remaining useful life is found offline so that predictions can be made quickly online with a single function evaluation. Simulation results demonstrate the overall methodology, validating the lumped damage approach and demonstrating real-time prognostics.

Machine health prognostics using the Bayesian-inference-based probabilistic indication and high-order particle filtering framework

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Jianbo

2015-12-01

Prognostics is much efficient to achieve zero-downtime performance, maximum productivity and proactive maintenance of machines. Prognostics intends to assess and predict the time evolution of machine health degradation so that machine failures can be predicted and prevented. A novel prognostics system is developed based on the data-model-fusion scheme using the Bayesian inference-based self-organizing map (SOM) and an integration of logistic regression (LR) and high-order particle filtering (HOPF). In this prognostics system, a baseline SOM is constructed to model the data distribution space of healthy machine under an assumption that predictable fault patterns are not available. Bayesian inference-based probability (BIP) derived from the baseline SOM is developed as a quantification indication of machine health degradation. BIP is capable of offering failure probability for the monitored machine, which has intuitionist explanation related to health degradation state. Based on those historic BIPs, the constructed LR and its modeling noise constitute a high-order Markov process (HOMP) to describe machine health propagation. HOPF is used to solve the HOMP estimation to predict the evolution of the machine health in the form of a probability density function (PDF). An on-line model update scheme is developed to adapt the Markov process changes to machine health dynamics quickly. The experimental results on a bearing test-bed illustrate the potential applications of the proposed system as an effective and simple tool for machine health prognostics.

The Prognostic Value of the 8th Edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Staging System in HER2-Enriched Subtype Breast Cancer, a Retrospective Analysis.

PubMed

Zhou, Bin; Xu, Ling; Ye, Jingming; Xin, Ling; Duan, Xuening; Liu, Yinhua

2017-08-01

The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) released its 8th edition of tumor staging which is to be implemented in early 2018. The present study aimed to analyze the prognostic value of AJCC 8th edition Cancer Staging System in HER2-enriched breast cancer, on a retrospective cohort. This study was a retrospective single-center study of HER2-enriched breast cancer cases diagnosed from January 2008 to December 2014. Clinicopathological features and follow up data including disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were analyzed to explore prognostic factors for disease outcome. We restaged patients based on the 8th edition of the AJCC cancer staging system and analyzed prognostic value of the Anatomic Stage Group and the Prognostic Stage Group. The study enrolled 170 HER2-enriched subtype breast cancer patients with 5-year disease free survival (DFS) of 85.1% and 5-year overall survival (OS) of 86.8%. Prognostic stages of 117 cases (68.8%) changed compared with anatomic stages, with 116 upstaged cases and 1 downstaged case. The Anatomic Stage Groups had a significant prognostic impact on DFS (χ 2 =16.752, p<0.001) and OS (χ 2 =25.038, p<0.001). The Prognostic Staging Groups had a significant prognostic impact on DFS (χ 2 =6.577, p=0.037) and OS (χ 2 =21.762, p<0.001). In the multivariate analysis, both stage groups were independent predictors of OS. Both Anatomic and Prognostic Stage Groups in the 8th edition of the AJCC breast cancer staging system had prognostic value in HER2-enriched subtype breast cancer. The Prognostic Stage system was a breakthrough on the basis of anatomic staging system. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Development and validation of a prognostic index for 4-year mortality in older adults.

PubMed

Lee, Sei J; Lindquist, Karla; Segal, Mark R; Covinsky, Kenneth E

2006-02-15

Both comorbid conditions and functional measures predict mortality in older adults, but few prognostic indexes combine both classes of predictors. Combining easily obtained measures into an accurate predictive model could be useful to clinicians advising patients, as well as policy makers and epidemiologists interested in risk adjustment. To develop and validate a prognostic index for 4-year mortality using information that can be obtained from patient report. Using the 1998 wave of the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), a population-based study of community-dwelling US adults older than 50 years, we developed the prognostic index from 11,701 individuals and validated the index with 8009. Individuals were asked about their demographic characteristics, whether they had specific diseases, and whether they had difficulty with a series of functional measures. We identified variables independently associated with mortality and weighted the variables to create a risk index. Death by December 31, 2002. The overall response rate was 81%. During the 4-year follow-up, there were 1361 deaths (12%) in the development cohort and 1072 deaths (13%) in the validation cohort. Twelve independent predictors of mortality were identified: 2 demographic variables (age: 60-64 years, 1 point; 65-69 years, 2 points; 70-74 years, 3 points; 75-79 years, 4 points; 80-84 years, 5 points, >85 years, 7 points and male sex, 2 points), 6 comorbid conditions (diabetes, 1 point; cancer, 2 points; lung disease, 2 points; heart failure, 2 points; current tobacco use, 2 points; and body mass index <25, 1 point), and difficulty with 4 functional variables (bathing, 2 points; walking several blocks, 2 points; managing money, 2 points, and pushing large objects, 1 point. Scores on the risk index were strongly associated with 4-year mortality in the validation cohort, with 0 to 5 points predicting a less than 4% risk, 6 to 9 points predicting a 15% risk, 10 to 13 points predicting a 42% risk, and 14 or more points predicting a 64% risk. The risk index showed excellent discrimination with a cstatistic of 0.84 in the development cohort and 0.82 in the validation cohort. This prognostic index, incorporating age, sex, self-reported comorbid conditions, and functional measures, accurately stratifies community-dwelling older adults into groups at varying risk of mortality.

Causes and predictors of mortality in hospitalized lupus patient in Sarawak General Hospital, Malaysia.

PubMed

Teh, C L; Ling, G R

2013-01-01

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a serious autoimmune disease that can be life threatening and fatal if left untreated. Causes and prognostic indicators of death in SLE have been well studied in developed countries but lacking in developing countries. We aimed to investigate the causes of mortality in hospitalized patients with SLE and determine the prognostic indicators of mortality during hospitalization in our center. All SLE patients who were admitted to Sarawak General Hospital from January 1, 2006 to December 31, 2010, were followed up in a prospective study using a standard protocol. Demographic data, clinical features, disease activities and damage indices were collected. Logistic regression and Cox regression analysis were used to determine the prognostic indicators of mortality in our patients. There were a total of 251 patients in our study, with the female to male ratio 10 to 1. Our study patients were of multiethnic origins. They had a mean age of 30.5 ± 12.2 years and a mean duration of illness of 36.5 ± 51.6 months. The main involvements were hematologic (73.3%), renal (70.9%) and mucocutaneous (67.3%). There were 26 deaths (10.4%), with the main causes being: infection and flare (50%), infection alone (19%), flare alone (19%) and others (12%). Independent predictors of mortality in our cohort of SLE patients were the presence of both infection and flare of disease (hazard ratio (HR) 5.56) and high damage indices at the time of admission (HR 1.91). Infection and flare were the main causes of death in hospitalized Asian patients with SLE. The presence of infection with flare and high damage indices at the time of admission were independent prognostic indicators of mortality.

Prognostic factors of HER2-positive breast cancer patients who develop brain metastasis: a multicenter retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Hayashi, Naoki; Niikura, Naoki; Masuda, Norikazu; Takashima, Seiki; Nakamura, Rikiya; Watanabe, Ken-ichi; Kanbayashi, Chizuko; Ishida, Mayumi; Hozumi, Yasuo; Tsuneizumi, Michiko; Kondo, Naoto; Naito, Yoichi; Honda, Yayoi; Matsui, Akira; Fujisawa, Tomomi; Oshitanai, Risa; Yasojima, Hiroyuki; Yamauchi, Hideko; Saji, Shigehira; Iwata, Hiroji

2015-01-01

The clinical course and prognostic factors of HER2-positive breast cancer patients with brain metastases are not well known because of the relatively small population. The aim of this study was to determine prognostic factors associated with HER2-positive patients who develop brain metastases. This retrospective study assessed the largest dataset to date of 432 HER2-positive patients who were diagnosed with brain metastases from 24 institutions of the Japan Clinical Oncology Group, Breast Cancer Study Group. The median age of the 432 patients was 54 years (range, 20-86 years). Of the patients, 162 patients (37.5 %) had ER-positive/HER2-positive (ER+HER2+) breast cancer, and 270 (62.5 %) had ER-negative/HER2-positive (ER-HER2+) breast cancer. The median brain metastasis-free survival period from primary breast cancer was 33.5 months in both groups. The median survival after developing brain metastasis was 16.5 and 11.5 months in the ER+HER2+ and ER-HER2+ groups, respectively, (p = 0.117). Patients with >3 brain metastases had significantly shorter overall survival in both ER+HER2+ (p < 0.001) and ER-HER2+ (p = 0.018) groups. Treatment with trastuzumab before developing brain metastases was not associated with survival duration after developing brain metastases (p = 0.571). However, patients treated with both trastuzumab and lapatinib after developing metastasis had significantly longer survival than patients treated with trastuzumab alone, lapatinib alone, or no HER2-targeting agent (p < 0.001). For HER2-positive patients with brain metastases, regardless of the use of trastuzumab before developing brain metastasis, treatment with both trastuzumab and lapatinib might improve survival.

Outpatient management of pulmonary embolism in cancer: data on a prospective cohort of 138 consecutive patients.

PubMed

Font, Carme; Carmona-Bayonas, Alberto; Fernández-Martinez, Aranzazu; Beato, Carmen; Vargas, Andrés; Gascon, Pere; Otero, Remedios

2014-03-01

The purpose of this prospective cohort study was to assess the feasibility of outpatient treatment in patients with cancer and objectively confirmed pulmonary embolism (PE), and to compare the performance of the different prognostic scales available in this setting. Patients were selected for outpatient management according to a set of exclusion criteria. Outcomes at 30 and 90 days of follow-up included thromboembolic recurrences, major bleeding, and all-cause death. The performance of 4 prognostic scales (Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index, Geneva Prognostic Score, POMPE-C, and Registro Informatizado de Enfermedad Tromboembólica [RIETE registry]) was evaluated. Of 138 patients, 62 (45%) were managed as outpatients. Incidental PE constituted 47% of the sample. Most patients treated at home had an incidentally detected PE (89%). The rate of recurrence and major bleeding events was similar in both groups. Mortality rates were higher for patients admitted to the hospital compared with outpatients at 30 days (18% vs 3%; P=.06) and 90 days (34% vs 10%; P=.001) of follow-up. None of the patients selected for home treatment required further admission because of PE complications. None of the prognostic models developed for symptomatic PE was significantly associated with 30-day mortality. Improved survival outcomes were observed in incidentally detected PEs compared with acute symptomatic events (overall mortality rates, 3.2% vs 18.4%; P=.006). A large proportion of patients with cancer and PE may be safely treated as outpatients, especially those with incidental PE. Cancer-specific prognostic scales including incidental PE should be developed for the optimal management of PE in this setting.

Latent class analysis derived subgroups of low back pain patients - do they have prognostic capacity?

PubMed

Molgaard Nielsen, Anne; Hestbaek, Lise; Vach, Werner; Kent, Peter; Kongsted, Alice

2017-08-09

Heterogeneity in patients with low back pain is well recognised and different approaches to subgrouping have been proposed. One statistical technique that is increasingly being used is Latent Class Analysis as it performs subgrouping based on pattern recognition with high accuracy. Previously, we developed two novel suggestions for subgrouping patients with low back pain based on Latent Class Analysis of patient baseline characteristics (patient history and physical examination), which resulted in 7 subgroups when using a single-stage analysis, and 9 subgroups when using a two-stage approach. However, their prognostic capacity was unexplored. This study (i) determined whether the subgrouping approaches were associated with the future outcomes of pain intensity, pain frequency and disability, (ii) assessed whether one of these two approaches was more strongly or more consistently associated with these outcomes, and (iii) assessed the performance of the novel subgroupings as compared to the following variables: two existing subgrouping tools (STarT Back Tool and Quebec Task Force classification), four baseline characteristics and a group of previously identified domain-specific patient categorisations (collectively, the 'comparator variables'). This was a longitudinal cohort study of 928 patients consulting for low back pain in primary care. The associations between each subgroup approach and outcomes at 2 weeks, 3 and 12 months, and with weekly SMS responses were tested in linear regression models, and their prognostic capacity (variance explained) was compared to that of the comparator variables listed above. The two previously identified subgroupings were similarly associated with all outcomes. The prognostic capacity of both subgroupings was better than that of the comparator variables, except for participants' recovery beliefs and the domain-specific categorisations, but was still limited. The explained variance ranged from 4.3%-6.9% for pain intensity and from 6.8%-20.3% for disability, and highest at the 2 weeks follow-up. Latent Class-derived subgroups provided additional prognostic information when compared to a range of variables, but the improvements were not substantial enough to warrant further development into a new prognostic tool. Further research could investigate if these novel subgrouping approaches may help to improve existing tools that subgroup low back pain patients.

Validation of EORTC Prognostic Factors for Adults With Low-Grade Glioma: A Report Using Intergroup 86-72-51

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Daniels, Thomas B.; Brown, Paul D., E-mail: Brown.paul@mayo.edu; Felten, Sara J.

2011-09-01

Purpose: A prognostic index for survival was constructed and validated from patient data from two European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) radiation trials for low-grade glioma (LGG). We sought to independently validate this prognostic index with a separate prospectively collected data set (Intergroup 86-72-51). Methods and Materials: Two hundred three patients were treated in a North Central Cancer Treatment Group-led trial that randomized patients with supratentorial LGG to 50.4 or 64.8 Gy. Risk factors from the EORTC prognostic index were analyzed for prognostic value: histology, tumor size, neurologic deficit, age, and tumor crossing the midline. The high-riskmore » group was defined as patients with more than two risk factors. In addition, the Mini Mental Status Examination (MMSE) score, extent of surgical resection, and 1p19q status were also analyzed for prognostic value. Results: On univariate analysis, the following were statistically significant (p < 0.05) detrimental factors for both progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS): astrocytoma histology, tumor size, and less than total resection. A Mini Mental Status Examination score of more than 26 was a favorable prognostic factor. Multivariate analysis showed that tumor size and MMSE score were significant predictors of OS whereas tumor size, astrocytoma histology, and MMSE score were significant predictors of PFS. Analyzing by the EORTC risk groups, we found that the low-risk group had significantly better median OS (10.8 years vs. 3.9 years, p < 0.0001) and PFS (6.2 years vs. 1.9 years, p < 0.0001) than the high-risk group. The 1p19q status was available in 66 patients. Co-deletion of 1p19q was a favorable prognostic factor for OS vs. one or no deletion (median OS, 12.6 years vs. 7.2 years; p = 0.03). Conclusions: Although the low-risk group as defined by EORTC criteria had a superior PFS and OS to the high-risk group, this is primarily because of the influence of histology and tumor size. Co-deletion of 1p19q is a prognostic factor. Future studies are needed to develop a more refined prognostic system that combines clinical prognostic features with more robust molecular and genetic data.« less

Is Disuse Osteopenia a Favorable Prognostic Sign After Femoral Neck Fracture?

PubMed

Ting, Beverlie L; Heng, Marilyn; Vrahas, Mark S; Rodriguez, Edward K; Harris, Mitchel B; Weaver, Michael J

2016-09-01

Avascular necrosis (AVN) of the femoral head is a devastating complication following fixation of femoral neck fractures in younger adults. In this study, we investigate the prognostic utility of disuse osteopenia. Retrospective study. Three academic Level 1 trauma centers. One hundred twenty patients younger than 60 years treated for a femoral neck fracture. N/A. The presence of sclerosis or osteopenia, compared to the contralateral femoral head, was measured 6 weeks from injury both subjectively and using a novel radiographic measure, the relative density ratio (RDR). The outcome measure was radiographic development of AVN. The presence of relative sclerosis was associated with AVN and overall treatment failure. Patients with subjective relative sclerosis had a 12.6 (95% confidence interval, 2.9-61.3; P < 0.001) times higher odds of developing AVN. Multiple logistic regression showed that for every 0.10 increase in the RDR, there was a 5.2 increase in the odds (95% confidence interval, 2.1-26.9; P = 0.009) of developing AVN. Patients with an RDR of ≥1.2 have an 80% probability of AVN, whereas those with an RDR ≤0.8 have a <1% probability of developing AVN. Disuse osteopenia detected on 6-week radiographs is a favorable prognostic sign following fixation of femoral neck fractures. Patients who have relative sclerosis of the femoral head at 6-week follow-up are at a higher risk of developing AVN. Diagnostic Level III. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

Multiple Damage Progression Paths in Model-Based Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Goebel, Kai Frank

2011-01-01

Model-based prognostics approaches employ domain knowledge about a system, its components, and how they fail through the use of physics-based models. Component wear is driven by several different degradation phenomena, each resulting in their own damage progression path, overlapping to contribute to the overall degradation of the component. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology using particle filters, in which the problem of characterizing multiple damage progression paths is cast as a joint state-parameter estimation problem. The estimate is represented as a probability distribution, allowing the prediction of end of life and remaining useful life within a probabilistic framework that supports uncertainty management. We also develop a novel variance control mechanism that maintains an uncertainty bound around the hidden parameters to limit the amount of estimation uncertainty and, consequently, reduce prediction uncertainty. We construct a detailed physics-based model of a centrifugal pump, to which we apply our model-based prognostics algorithms. We illustrate the operation of the prognostic solution with a number of simulation-based experiments and demonstrate the performance of the chosen approach when multiple damage mechanisms are active

Requirements Flowdown for Prognostics and Health Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goebel, Kai; Saxena, Abhinav; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita

2012-01-01

Prognostics and Health Management (PHM) principles have considerable promise to change the game of lifecycle cost of engineering systems at high safety levels by providing a reliable estimate of future system states. This estimate is a key for planning and decision making in an operational setting. While technology solutions have made considerable advances, the tie-in into the systems engineering process is lagging behind, which delays fielding of PHM-enabled systems. The derivation of specifications from high level requirements for algorithm performance to ensure quality predictions is not well developed. From an engineering perspective some key parameters driving the requirements for prognostics performance include: (1) maximum allowable Probability of Failure (PoF) of the prognostic system to bound the risk of losing an asset, (2) tolerable limits on proactive maintenance to minimize missed opportunity of asset usage, (3) lead time to specify the amount of advanced warning needed for actionable decisions, and (4) required confidence to specify when prognosis is sufficiently good to be used. This paper takes a systems engineering view towards the requirements specification process and presents a method for the flowdown process. A case study based on an electric Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (e-UAV) scenario demonstrates how top level requirements for performance, cost, and safety flow down to the health management level and specify quantitative requirements for prognostic algorithm performance.

External validation of a Cox prognostic model: principles and methods

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A prognostic model should not enter clinical practice unless it has been demonstrated that it performs a useful role. External validation denotes evaluation of model performance in a sample independent of that used to develop the model. Unlike for logistic regression models, external validation of Cox models is sparsely treated in the literature. Successful validation of a model means achieving satisfactory discrimination and calibration (prediction accuracy) in the validation sample. Validating Cox models is not straightforward because event probabilities are estimated relative to an unspecified baseline function. Methods We describe statistical approaches to external validation of a published Cox model according to the level of published information, specifically (1) the prognostic index only, (2) the prognostic index together with Kaplan-Meier curves for risk groups, and (3) the first two plus the baseline survival curve (the estimated survival function at the mean prognostic index across the sample). The most challenging task, requiring level 3 information, is assessing calibration, for which we suggest a method of approximating the baseline survival function. Results We apply the methods to two comparable datasets in primary breast cancer, treating one as derivation and the other as validation sample. Results are presented for discrimination and calibration. We demonstrate plots of survival probabilities that can assist model evaluation. Conclusions Our validation methods are applicable to a wide range of prognostic studies and provide researchers with a toolkit for external validation of a published Cox model. PMID:23496923

A novel protein-based prognostic signature improves risk stratification to guide clinical management in early lung adenocarcinoma patients.

PubMed

Martínez-Terroba, Elena; Behrens, Carmen; de Miguel, Fernando J; Agorreta, Jackeline; Monsó, Eduard; Millares, Laura; Sainz, Cristina; Mesa-Guzman, Miguel; Pérez-Gracia, Jose Luis; Lozano, María Dolores; Zulueta, Javier J; Pio, Ruben; Wistuba, Ignacio I; Montuenga, Luis M; Pajares, María J

2018-05-13

Each of the pathological stages (I-IIIa) in which surgically resected non-small cell lung cancer patients are classified conceals hidden biological heterogeneity, manifested in heterogeneous outcomes within each stage. Thus, the finding of robust and precise molecular classifiers to assess individual patient risk is an unmet medical need. Here we identified and validated the clinical utility of a new prognostic signature based on three proteins (BRCA1, QKI and SLC2A1) to stratify early lung adenocarcinoma patients according to their risk of recurrence or death. Patients were staged following the new International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer (IASLC) staging criteria (8 th edition, 2018). A test cohort (n=239) was used to assess the value of this new prognostic index (PI) based on the three proteins. The prognostic signature was developed by Cox regression following stringent statistical criteria (TRIPOD: Transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis). The model resulted in a highly significant predictor of five-year outcome for disease-free survival (P<0.001) and overall survival (P<0.001). The prognostic ability of the model was externally validated in an independent multi-institutional cohort of patients (n=114, P=0.021). We also demonstrated that this molecular classifier adds relevant information to the gold standard TNM-based pathological staging with a highly significant improvement of likelihood ratio. We subsequently developed a combined prognostic index (CPI) including both the molecular and the pathological data which improved the risk stratification in both cohorts (P≤0.001). Moreover, the signature may help to select stage I-IIA patients who might benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy. In summary, this protein-based signature accurately identifies those patients with high risk of recurrence and death, and adds further prognostic information to the TNM-based clinical staging, even applying the new IASLC 8 th edition staging criteria. More importantly, it may be a valuable tool for selecting patients for adjuvant therapy. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A Survey of Health Management User Objectives Related to Diagnostic and Prognostic Metrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wheeler, Kevin R.; Kurtoglu, Tolga; Poll, Scott D.

2010-01-01

One of the most prominent technical challenges to effective deployment of health management systems is the vast difference in user objectives with respect to engineering development. In this paper, a detailed survey on the objectives of different users of health management systems is presented. These user objectives are then mapped to the metrics typically encountered in the development and testing of two main systems health management functions: diagnosis and prognosis. Using this mapping, the gaps between user goals and the metrics associated with diagnostics and prognostics are identified and presented with a collection of lessons learned from previous studies that include both industrial and military aerospace applications.

The prognostic value of histidine-rich glycoprotein RNA in breast tissue using unmodified gold nanoparticles assay.

PubMed

Eissa, Sanaa; Azzazy, Hassan M E; Matboli, Marwa; Shawky, Sherif M; Said, Hebatallah; Anous, Fatin A

2014-09-01

The aim of is this study is to explore the role of tissue histidine-rich glycoprotein (HRG) RNA as a promising clinically useful biomarker for breast cancer patients prognosis using nanogold assay. Expression of the HRG RNA was assessed by gold nanoparticles and conventional RT-PCR after purification by magnetic nanoparticles in breast tissue samples. The study included 120 patients, 60 of which were histologically proven breast carcinoma cases, 30 had benign breast lesions and 30 were healthy individuals who had undergone reductive plastic surgery. ER, PR and HER2 status were also investigated. The prognostic significance of tissue HRG RNA expression in breast cancer was explored. The magnetic nanoparticles coated with specific thiol modified oligonucleotide probe were used successfully in purification of HRG RNA from breast tissue total RNAs with satisfactory yield. The developed HRG AuNPs assay had a sensitivity and a specificity of 90 %, and a detection limit of 1.5 nmol/l. The concordance rate between the HRG AuNPs assay with RT-PCR after RNA purification using magnetic nanoparticles was 93.3 %. The median follow-up period was 60 months. Among traditional prognostic biomarkers, HRG was a significant independent prognostic marker in relapse-free survival (RFS). HRG RNA is an independent prognostic marker for breast cancer and can be detected using gold NPs assay, which is rapid, sensitive, specific, inexpensive to extend the value for breast cancer prognosis.

Prognostic Modeling in Pathologic N1 Breast Cancer Without Elective Nodal Irradiation After Current Standard Systemic Management.

PubMed

Yu, Jeong Il; Park, Won; Choi, Doo Ho; Huh, Seung Jae; Nam, Seok Jin; Kim, Seok Won; Lee, Jeong Eon; Kil, Won Ho; Im, Young-Hyuck; Ahn, Jin Seok; Park, Yeon Hee; Cho, Eun Yoon

2015-08-01

This study was conducted to establish a prognostic model in patients with pathologic N1 (pN1) breast cancer who have not undergone elective nodal irradiation (ENI) under the current standard management and to suggest possible indications for ENI. We performed a retrospective study with patients with pN1 breast cancer who received the standard local and preferred adjuvant chemotherapy treatment without neoadjuvant chemotherapy and ENI from January 2005 to June 2011. Most of the indicated patients received endocrine and trastuzumab therapy. In 735 enrolled patients, the median follow-up period was 58.4 months (range, 7.2-111.3 months). Overall, 55 recurrences (7.4%) developed, and locoregional recurrence was present in 27 patients (3.8%). Recurrence-free survival was significantly related to lymphovascular invasion (P = .04, hazard ratio [HR], 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-2.88), histologic grade (P = .03, HR, 2.57; 95% CI, 1.05-6.26), and nonluminal A subtype (P = .02, HR, 3.04; 95% CI, 1.23-7.49) in multivariate analysis. The prognostic model was established by these 3 prognostic factors. Recurrence-free survival was less than 90% at 5 years in cases with 2 or 3 factors. The prognostic model has stratified risk groups in pN1 breast cancer without ENI. Patients with 2 or more factors should be considered for ENI. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unique protein expression signatures of survival time in kidney renal clear cell carcinoma through a pan-cancer screening.

PubMed

Han, Guangchun; Zhao, Wei; Song, Xiaofeng; Kwok-Shing Ng, Patrick; Karam, Jose A; Jonasch, Eric; Mills, Gordon B; Zhao, Zhongming; Ding, Zhiyong; Jia, Peilin

2017-10-03

In 2016, it is estimated that there will be 62,700 new cases of kidney cancer in the United States, and 14,240 patients will die from the disease. Because the incidence of kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC), the most common type of kidney cancer, is expected to continue to increase in the US, there is an urgent need to find effective diagnostic biomarkers for KIRC that could help earlier detection of and customized treatment strategies for the disease. Accordingly, in this study we systematically investigated KIRC's prognostic biomarkers for survival using the reverse phase protein array (RPPA) data and the high throughput sequencing data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). With comprehensive data available in TCGA, we systematically screened protein expression based survival biomarkers in 10 major cancer types, among which KIRC presented many protein prognostic biomarkers of survival time. This is in agreement with a previous report that expression level changes (mRNAs, microRNA and protein) may have a better performance for prognosis of KIRC. In this study, we also identified 52 prognostic genes for KIRC, many of which are involved in cell-cycle and cancer signaling, as well as 15 tumor-stage-specific prognostic biomarkers. Notably, we found fewer prognostic biomarkers for early-stage than for late-stage KIRC. Four biomarkers (the RPPA protein IDs: FASN, ACC1, Cyclin_B1 and Rad51) were found to be prognostic for survival based on both protein and mRNA expression data. Through pan-cancer screening, we found that many protein biomarkers were prognostic for patients' survival in KIRC. Stage-specific survival biomarkers in KIRC were also identified. Our study indicated that these protein biomarkers might have potential clinical value in terms of predicting survival in KIRC patients and developing individualized treatment strategies. Importantly, we found many biomarkers in KIRC at both the mRNA expression level and the protein expression level. These biomarkers shared a significant overlap, indicating that they were technically replicable.

Prognostics of Power Electronics, Methods and Validation Experiments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Celaya, Jose R.; Biswas, Gautam; Goebel, Kai

2012-01-01

Abstract Failure of electronic devices is a concern for future electric aircrafts that will see an increase of electronics to drive and control safety-critical equipment throughout the aircraft. As a result, investigation of precursors to failure in electronics and prediction of remaining life of electronic components is of key importance. DC-DC power converters are power electronics systems employed typically as sourcing elements for avionics equipment. Current research efforts in prognostics for these power systems focuses on the identification of failure mechanisms and the development of accelerated aging methodologies and systems to accelerate the aging process of test devices, while continuously measuring key electrical and thermal parameters. Preliminary model-based prognostics algorithms have been developed making use of empirical degradation models and physics-inspired degradation model with focus on key components like electrolytic capacitors and power MOSFETs (metal-oxide-semiconductor-field-effect-transistor). This paper presents current results on the development of validation methods for prognostics algorithms of power electrolytic capacitors. Particularly, in the use of accelerated aging systems for algorithm validation. Validation of prognostics algorithms present difficulties in practice due to the lack of run-to-failure experiments in deployed systems. By using accelerated experiments, we circumvent this problem in order to define initial validation activities.

Communicating prognostic uncertainty in potential end-of-life contexts: experiences of family members.

PubMed

Krawczyk, Marian; Gallagher, Romayne

2016-07-12

This article reports on the concept of "communicating prognostic uncertainty" which emerged from a mixed methods survey asking family members to rank their satisfaction in seven domains of hospital end-of-life care. Open-ended questions were embedded within a previously validated survey asking family members about satisfaction with end-of-life care. The purpose was to understand, in the participants' own words, the connection between their numerical rankings of satisfaction and the experience of care. Our study found that nearly half of all family members wanted more information about possible outcomes of care, including knowledge that the patient was "sick enough to die". Prognostic uncertainty was often poorly communicated, if at all. Inappropriate techniques included information being cloaked in confusing euphemisms, providing unwanted false hope, and incongruence between message and the aggressive level of care being provided. In extreme cases, these techniques left a legacy of uncertainty and suspicion. Family members expressed an awareness of both the challenges and benefits of communicating prognostic uncertainty. Most importantly, respondents who acknowledged that they would have resisted (or did) knowing that the patient was sick enough to die also expressed a retrospective understanding that they would have liked, and benefitted, from more prognostic information that death was a possible or probable outcome of the patient's admission. Family members who reported discussion of prognostic uncertainty also reported high levels of effective communication and satisfaction with care. They also reported long-term benefits of knowing the patient was sick enough to die. While a patient who is sick enough to die may survive to discharge, foretelling with family members in potential end of life contexts facilitates the development of a shared and desired prognostic awareness that the patient is nearing end of life.

Health-related quality-of-life parameters as independent prognostic factors in advanced or metastatic bladder cancer.

PubMed

Roychowdhury, D F; Hayden, A; Liepa, A M

2003-02-15

This retrospective analysis examined prognostic significance of health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) parameters combined with baseline clinical factors on outcomes (overall survival, time to progressive disease, and time to treatment failure) in bladder cancer. Outcome and HRQoL (European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire C30) data were collected prospectively in a phase III study assessing gemcitabine and cisplatin versus methotrexate, vinblastine, doxorubicin, and cisplatin in locally advanced or metastatic bladder cancer. Prespecified baseline clinical factors (performance status, tumor-node-metastasis staging, visceral metastases [VM], alkaline phosphatase [AP] level, number of metastatic sites, prior radiotherapy, disease measurability, sex, time from diagnosis, and sites of disease) and selected HRQoL parameters (global QoL; all functional scales; symptoms: pain, fatigue, insomnia, dyspnea, anorexia) were evaluated using Cox's proportional hazards model. Factors with individual prognostic value (P <.05) on outcomes in univariate models were assessed for joint prognostic value in a multivariate model. A final model was developed using a backward selection strategy. Patients with baseline HRQoL were included (364 of 405, 90%). The final model predicted longer survival with low/normal AP levels, no VM, high physical functioning, low role functioning, and no anorexia. Positive prognostic factors for time to progressive disease were good performance status, low/normal AP levels, no VM, and minimal fatigue; for time to treatment failure, they were low/normal AP levels, minimal fatigue, and no anorexia. Global QoL was a significant predictor of outcome in univariate analyses but was not retained in the multivariate model. HRQoL parameters are independent prognostic factors for outcome in advanced bladder cancer; their prognostic importance needs further evaluation.

Modified TIME-H: a simplified scoring system for chronic wound management.

PubMed

Lim, K; Free, B; Sinha, S

2015-09-01

Chronic wound assessment requires a systematic approach in order to guide management and improve prognostication. Following a pilot study using the original TIME-H scoring system in chronic wound management, modifications were suggested leading to the development of the Modified TIME-H scoring system. This study investigates the feasibility and reliability of chronic wound prognostication applying the Modified TIME-H score. Patients referred to the hospital's outpatient wound clinic over a 9-month period were categorised into one of three predicted outcome categories based on their Modified TIME-H score. This study shows a higher proportion of patients in the certain healing category achieved healed wounds, with a higher rate of reduction in wound size, when compared with the other categories. The three categories defined in this study are certain healing, uncertain healing and difficult healing. The Modified TIME-H score could be a useful tool for assessment, patient-centred management and prognostication of chronic wounds in clinical practice and requires further validation from other institutions. The authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

Lifecycle Prognostics Architecture for Selected High-Cost Active Components

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

N. Lybeck; B. Pham; M. Tawfik

There are an extensive body of knowledge and some commercial products available for calculating prognostics, remaining useful life, and damage index parameters. The application of these technologies within the nuclear power community is still in its infancy. Online monitoring and condition-based maintenance is seeing increasing acceptance and deployment, and these activities provide the technological bases for expanding to add predictive/prognostics capabilities. In looking to deploy prognostics there are three key aspects of systems that are presented and discussed: (1) component/system/structure selection, (2) prognostic algorithms, and (3) prognostics architectures. Criteria are presented for component selection: feasibility, failure probability, consequences of failure,more » and benefits of the prognostics and health management (PHM) system. The basis and methods commonly used for prognostics algorithms are reviewed and summarized. Criteria for evaluating PHM architectures are presented: open, modular architecture; platform independence; graphical user interface for system development and/or results viewing; web enabled tools; scalability; and standards compatibility. Thirteen software products were identified and discussed in the context of being potentially useful for deployment in a PHM program applied to systems in a nuclear power plant (NPP). These products were evaluated by using information available from company websites, product brochures, fact sheets, scholarly publications, and direct communication with vendors. The thirteen products were classified into four groups of software: (1) research tools, (2) PHM system development tools, (3) deployable architectures, and (4) peripheral tools. Eight software tools fell into the deployable architectures category. Of those eight, only two employ all six modules of a full PHM system. Five systems did not offer prognostic estimates, and one system employed the full health monitoring suite but lacked operations and maintenance support. Each product is briefly described in Appendix A. Selection of the most appropriate software package for a particular application will depend on the chosen component, system, or structure. Ongoing research will determine the most appropriate choices for a successful demonstration of PHM systems in aging NPPs.« less

The Evolution of Prognostic Factors in Multiple Myeloma

PubMed Central

Hassanein, Mona; Rasheed, Walid; Aljurf, Mahmoud; Alsharif, Fahad

2017-01-01

Multiple myeloma (MM) is a heterogeneous hematologic malignancy involving the proliferation of plasma cells derived by different genetic events contributing to the development, progression, and prognosis of this disease. Despite improvement in treatment strategies of MM over the last decade, the disease remains incurable. All efforts are currently focused on understanding the prognostic markers of the disease hoping to incorporate the new therapeutic modalities to convert the disease into curable one. We present this comprehensive review to summarize the current standard prognostic markers used in MM along with novel techniques that are still in development and highlight their implications in current clinical practice. PMID:28321258

Serum C-reactive protein (CRP) as a simple and independent prognostic factor in extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type.

PubMed

Li, Ya-Jun; Li, Zhi-Ming; Xia, Yi; Huang, Jia-Jia; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Xia, Zhong-Jun; Lin, Tong-Yu; Li, Su; Cai, Xiu-Yu; Wu-Xiao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Wen-Qi

2013-01-01

C-reactive protein (CRP) is a biomarker of the inflammatory response, and it shows significant prognostic value for several types of solid tumors. The prognostic significance of CRP for lymphoma has not been fully examined. We evaluated the prognostic role of baseline serum CRP levels in patients with extranodal natural killer (NK)/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTL). We retrospectively analyzed 185 patients with newly diagnosed ENKTL. The prognostic value of the serum CRP level was evaluated for the low-CRP group (CRP≤10 mg/L) versus the high-CRP group (CRP>10 mg/L). The prognostic value of the International Prognostic Index (IPI) and the Korean Prognostic Index (KPI) were evaluated and compared with the newly developed prognostic model. Patients in the high-CRP group tended to display increased adverse clinical characteristics, lower rates of complete remission (P<0.001), inferior progression-free survival (PFS, P = 0.001), and inferior overall survival (OS, P<0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that elevated serum CRP levels, age >60 years, hypoalbuminemia, and elevated lactate dehydrogenase levels were independent adverse predictors of OS. Based on these four independent predictors, we constructed a new prognostic model that identified 4 groups with varying OS: group 1, no adverse factors; group 2, 1 factor; group 3, 2 factors; and group 4, 3 or 4 factors (P<0.001). The novel prognostic model was found to be superior to both the IPI in discriminating patients with different outcomes in the IPI low-risk group and the KPI in distinguishing between the low- and intermediate-low-risk groups, the intermediate-low- and high-intermediate-risk groups, and the high-intermediate- and high-risk groups. Our results suggest that pretreatment serum CRP levels represent an independent predictor of clinical outcome for patients with ENKTL. The prognostic value of the new prognostic model is superior to both IPI and KPI.

Serum C-Reactive Protein (CRP) as a Simple and Independent Prognostic Factor in Extranodal Natural Killer/T-Cell Lymphoma, Nasal Type

PubMed Central

Xia, Yi; Huang, Jia-Jia; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Xia, Zhong-Jun; Lin, Tong-Yu; Li, Su; Cai, Xiu-Yu; Wu-Xiao, Zhi-Jun; Jiang, Wen-Qi

2013-01-01

Background C-reactive protein (CRP) is a biomarker of the inflammatory response, and it shows significant prognostic value for several types of solid tumors. The prognostic significance of CRP for lymphoma has not been fully examined. We evaluated the prognostic role of baseline serum CRP levels in patients with extranodal natural killer (NK)/T-cell lymphoma (ENKTL). Methods We retrospectively analyzed 185 patients with newly diagnosed ENKTL. The prognostic value of the serum CRP level was evaluated for the low-CRP group (CRP≤10 mg/L) versus the high-CRP group (CRP>10 mg/L). The prognostic value of the International Prognostic Index (IPI) and the Korean Prognostic Index (KPI) were evaluated and compared with the newly developed prognostic model. Results Patients in the high-CRP group tended to display increased adverse clinical characteristics, lower rates of complete remission (P<0.001), inferior progression-free survival (PFS, P = 0.001), and inferior overall survival (OS, P<0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that elevated serum CRP levels, age >60 years, hypoalbuminemia, and elevated lactate dehydrogenase levels were independent adverse predictors of OS. Based on these four independent predictors, we constructed a new prognostic model that identified 4 groups with varying OS: group 1, no adverse factors; group 2, 1 factor; group 3, 2 factors; and group 4, 3 or 4 factors (P<0.001). The novel prognostic model was found to be superior to both the IPI in discriminating patients with different outcomes in the IPI low-risk group and the KPI in distinguishing between the low- and intermediate-low-risk groups, the intermediate-low- and high-intermediate-risk groups, and the high-intermediate- and high-risk groups. Conclusions Our results suggest that pretreatment serum CRP levels represent an independent predictor of clinical outcome for patients with ENKTL. The prognostic value of the new prognostic model is superior to both IPI and KPI. PMID:23724031

Prognostics and health management design for rotary machinery systems—Reviews, methodology and applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lee, Jay; Wu, Fangji; Zhao, Wenyu; Ghaffari, Masoud; Liao, Linxia; Siegel, David

2014-01-01

Much research has been conducted in prognostics and health management (PHM), an emerging field in mechanical engineering that is gaining interest from both academia and industry. Most of these efforts have been in the area of machinery PHM, resulting in the development of many algorithms for this particular application. The majority of these algorithms concentrate on applications involving common rotary machinery components, such as bearings and gears. Knowledge of this prior work is a necessity for any future research efforts to be conducted; however, there has not been a comprehensive overview that details previous and on-going efforts in PHM. In addition, a systematic method for developing and deploying a PHM system has yet to be established. Such a method would enable rapid customization and integration of PHM systems for diverse applications. To address these gaps, this paper provides a comprehensive review of the PHM field, followed by an introduction of a systematic PHM design methodology, 5S methodology, for converting data to prognostics information. This methodology includes procedures for identifying critical components, as well as tools for selecting the most appropriate algorithms for specific applications. Visualization tools are presented for displaying prognostics information in an appropriate fashion for quick and accurate decision making. Industrial case studies are included in this paper to show how this methodology can help in the design of an effective PHM system.

Comparison of prognostic nomograms based on different nodal staging systems in patients with resected gastric cancer.

PubMed

Wang, Zi-Xian; Qiu, Miao-Zhen; Jiang, Yu-Ming; Zhou, Zhi-Wei; Li, Guo-Xin; Xu, Rui-Hua

2017-01-01

Purpose: Previous studies addressing the optimal nodal staging system in patients with resected gastric cancer have shown inconsistent results, and the optimal system for development of prognostic nomograms remains unclear. In this study, we compared prognostic nomograms based on the metastatic lymph node (MLN) count, lymph node ratio (LNR), and log odds of metastatic lymph nodes (LODDS) to predict the 5-year overall survival in patients with resected gastric cancer. Methods: We analysed 15,320 patients with resected gastric cancer in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database between 1988 and 2010. Missing data were handled using multiple imputation. When assessed as a continuous covariate with restricted cubic splines, each MLN, LNR, and LODDS variable was incorporated into a nomogram with other significant prognosticators to predict the 5-year overall survival. A two-centre Chinese dataset (1,595 cases) was used as external validation data. Results: The discriminatory abilities of the MLN-, LNR-, and LODDS-based nomograms were comparable (concordance indices: 0.744, 0.741, and 0.744, respectively, in the SEER set, P > 0.152 for all pairwise comparisons; 0.715, 0.712, and 0.713, respectively, in the Chinese set, P > 0.445 for all pairwise comparisons). The discriminatory abilities of the three nomograms were all superior to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM classification (concordance indices: 0.713, P < 0.001 for all in the SEER set; and 0.693, P < 0.001 for all in the Chinese set). The discriminatory abilities of the nomograms were comparable regardless of the number of nodes examined. Moreover, decision curve analyses indicated similar net benefits of using the nomograms. Conclusion: MLN-, LNR-, and LODDS should be considered equally in the development of multivariate prognostic models and nomograms to refine the prediction of survival among patients with resected gastric cancer.

Prognostic Indicators: Predicting Degree of Change from Interventions for Adolescents at Risk for Language Weakness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Poll, Gerard H.; Burke, Lisa; Miller, Carol A.; Fiene, Judy

2017-01-01

Prognostic statements are a standard component of assessments for adolescents at risk for language-learning disabilities, but there is limited evidence on the validity of prognostic indicators. In two studies, we collected measures of language ability and candidate prognostic indicators from adolescents age 12 to 13. We conducted an expository…

Thai venous stroke prognostic score: TV-SPSS.

PubMed

Poungvarin, Niphon; Prayoonwiwat, Naraporn; Ratanakorn, Disya; Towanabut, Somchai; Tantirittisak, Tassanee; Suwanwela, Nijasri; Phanthumchinda, Kamman; Tiamkoa, Somsak; Chankrachang, Siwaporn; Nidhinandana, Samart; Laptikultham, Somsak; Limsoontarakul, Sansern; Udomphanthuruk, Suthipol

2009-11-01

Prognosis of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) has never been studied in Thailand. A simple prognostic score to predict poor prognosis of CVST has also never been reported. The authors are aiming to establish a simple and reliable prognostic score for this condition. The medical records of CVST patients from eight neurological training centers in Thailand who received between April 1993 and September 2005 were reviewed as part of this retrospective study. Clinical features included headache, seizure, stroke risk factors, Glasgow coma scale (GCS), blood pressure on arrival, papilledema, hemiparesis, meningeal irritation sign, location of occluded venous sinuses, hemorrhagic infarction, cerebrospinal fluid opening pressure, treatment options, length of stay, and other complications were analyzed to determine the outcome using modified Rankin scale (mRS). Poor prognosis (defined as mRS of 3-6) was determined on the discharge date. One hundred ninety four patients' records, 127 females (65.5%) and mean age of 36.6 +/- 14.4 years, were analyzed Fifty-one patients (26.3%) were in the poor outcome group (mRS 3-6). Overall mortality was 8.4%. Univariate analysis and then multivariate analysis using SPSS version 11.5 revealed only four statistically significant predictors influencing outcome of CVST They were underlying malignancy, low GCS, presence of hemorrhagic infarction (for poor outcome), and involvement of lateral sinus (for good outcome). Thai venous stroke prognostic score (TV-SPSS) was derived from these four factors using a multiple logistic model. A simple and pragmatic prognostic score for CVST outcome has been developed with high sensitivity (93%), yet low specificity (33%). The next study should focus on the validation of this score in other prospective populations.

Prognostic factors of whiplash-associated disorders: a systematic review of prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Scholten-Peeters, Gwendolijne G M; Verhagen, Arianne P; Bekkering, Geertruida E; van der Windt, Daniëlle A W M; Barnsley, Les; Oostendorp, Rob A B; Hendriks, Erik J M

2003-07-01

We present a systematic review of prospective cohort studies. Our aim was to assess prognostic factors associated with functional recovery of patients with whiplash injuries. The failure of some patients to recover following whiplash injury has been linked to a number of prognostic factors. However, there is some inconsistency in the literature and there have been no systematic attempts to analyze the level of evidence for prognostic factors in whiplash recovery. Studies were selected for inclusion following a comprehensive search of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the database of the Dutch Institute of Allied Health Professions up until April 2002 and hand searches of the reference lists of retrieved articles. Studies were selected if the objective was to assess prognostic factors associated with recovery; the design was a prospective cohort study; the study population included at least an identifiable subgroup of patients suffering from a whiplash injury; and the paper was a full report published in English, German, French or Dutch. The methodological quality was independently assessed by two reviewers. A study was considered to be of 'high quality' if it satisfied at least 50% of the maximum available quality score. Two independent reviewers extracted data and the association between prognostic factors and functional recovery was calculated in terms of risk estimates. Fifty papers reporting on twenty-nine cohorts were included in the review. Twelve cohorts were considered to be of 'high quality'. Because of the heterogeneity of patient selection, type of prognostic factors and outcome measures, no statistical pooling was able to be performed. Strong evidence was found for high initial pain intensity being an adverse prognostic factor. There was strong evidence that for older age, female gender, high acute psychological response, angular deformity of the neck, rear-end collision, and compensation not being associated with an adverse prognosis. Several physical (e.g. restricted range of motion, high number of complaints), psychosocial (previous psychological problems), neuropsychosocial factors (nervousness), crash related (e.g. accident on highway) and treatment related factors (need to resume physiotherapy) showed limited prognostic value for functional recovery. High initial pain intensity is an important predictor for delayed functional recovery for patients with whiplash injury. Often mentioned factors like age, gender and compensation do not seem to be of prognostic value. Scientific information about prognostic factors can guide physicians or other care providers to direct treatment and to probably prevent chronicity.

Developing Family Psychoeducational Treatments for Patients with Bipolar and Other Severe Psychiatric Disorders: A Pathway from Basic Research to Clinical Trials.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miklowitz, David J.; Hooley, Jill M.

1998-01-01

Describes the development pathway of family treatments for patients with severe and persistent psychiatric disorders in a population for whom family attributes have prognostic importance. The methodological complexities of psychosocial treatment studies are many. Moreover, the results of these studies often reflect interactions between treatment,…

Time-dependent changes in mortality and transformation risk in MDS

PubMed Central

Tuechler, Heinz; Sanz, Guillermo; Schanz, Julie; Garcia-Manero, Guillermo; Solé, Francesc; Bennett, John M.; Bowen, David; Fenaux, Pierre; Dreyfus, Francois; Kantarjian, Hagop; Kuendgen, Andrea; Malcovati, Luca; Cazzola, Mario; Cermak, Jaroslav; Fonatsch, Christa; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Levis, Alessandro; Luebbert, Michael; Maciejewski, Jaroslaw; Machherndl-Spandl, Sigrid; Magalhaes, Silvia M. M.; Miyazaki, Yasushi; Sekeres, Mikkael A.; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Stauder, Reinhard; Tauro, Sudhir; Valent, Peter; Vallespi, Teresa; van de Loosdrecht, Arjan A.; Germing, Ulrich; Haase, Detlef; Greenberg, Peter L.

2016-01-01

In myelodysplastic syndromes (MDSs), the evolution of risk for disease progression or death has not been systematically investigated despite being crucial for correct interpretation of prognostic risk scores. In a multicenter retrospective study, we described changes in risk over time, the consequences for basal prognostic scores, and their potential clinical implications. Major MDS prognostic risk scoring systems and their constituent individual predictors were analyzed in 7212 primary untreated MDS patients from the International Working Group for Prognosis in MDS database. Changes in risk of mortality and of leukemic transformation over time from diagnosis were described. Hazards regarding mortality and acute myeloid leukemia transformation diminished over time from diagnosis in higher-risk MDS patients, whereas they remained stable in lower-risk patients. After approximately 3.5 years, hazards in the separate risk groups became similar and were essentially equivalent after 5 years. This fact led to loss of prognostic power of different scoring systems considered, which was more pronounced for survival. Inclusion of age resulted in increased initial prognostic power for survival and less attenuation in hazards. If needed for practicability in clinical management, the differing development of risks suggested a reasonable division into lower- and higher-risk MDS based on the IPSS-R at a cutoff of 3.5 points. Our data regarding time-dependent performance of prognostic scores reflect the disparate change of risks in MDS subpopulations. Lower-risk patients at diagnosis remain lower risk whereas initially high-risk patients demonstrate decreasing risk over time. This change of risk should be considered in clinical decision making. PMID:27335276

Prognostic model for survival in patients with early stage cervical cancer.

PubMed

Biewenga, Petra; van der Velden, Jacobus; Mol, Ben Willem J; Stalpers, Lukas J A; Schilthuis, Marten S; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Burger, Matthé P M; Buist, Marrije R

2011-02-15

In the management of early stage cervical cancer, knowledge about the prognosis is critical. Although many factors have an impact on survival, their relative importance remains controversial. This study aims to develop a prognostic model for survival in early stage cervical cancer patients and to reconsider grounds for adjuvant treatment. A multivariate Cox regression model was used to identify the prognostic weight of clinical and histological factors for disease-specific survival (DSS) in 710 consecutive patients who had surgery for early stage cervical cancer (FIGO [International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics] stage IA2-IIA). Prognostic scores were derived by converting the regression coefficients for each prognostic marker and used in a score chart. The discriminative capacity was expressed as the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic. The 5-year DSS was 92%. Tumor diameter, histological type, lymph node metastasis, depth of stromal invasion, lymph vascular space invasion, and parametrial extension were independently associated with DSS and were included in a Cox regression model. This prognostic model, corrected for the 9% overfit shown by internal validation, showed a fair discriminative capacity (AUC, 0.73). The derived score chart predicting 5-year DSS showed a good discriminative capacity (AUC, 0.85). In patients with early stage cervical cancer, DSS can be predicted with a statistical model. Models, such as that presented here, should be used in clinical trials on the effects of adjuvant treatments in high-risk early cervical cancer patients, both to stratify and to include patients. Copyright © 2010 American Cancer Society.

On Applying the Prognostic Performance Metrics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

2009-01-01

Prognostics performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. As prognostics technology matures and more sophisticated methods for prognostic uncertainty management are developed, a standardized methodology for performance evaluation becomes extremely important to guide improvement efforts in a constructive manner. This paper is in continuation of previous efforts where several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics were introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. Several shortcomings identified, while applying these metrics to a variety of real applications, are also summarized along with discussions that attempt to alleviate these problems. Further, these metrics have been enhanced to include the capability of incorporating probability distribution information from prognostic algorithms as opposed to evaluation based on point estimates only. Several methods have been suggested and guidelines have been provided to help choose one method over another based on probability distribution characteristics. These approaches also offer a convenient and intuitive visualization of algorithm performance with respect to some of these new metrics like prognostic horizon and alpha-lambda performance, and also quantify the corresponding performance while incorporating the uncertainty information.

Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR) Metric Report

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cornhill, Dennis; Bharadwaj, Raj; Mylaraswamy, Dinkar

2013-01-01

This document outlines a set of metrics for evaluating the diagnostic and prognostic schemes developed for the Vehicle Integrated Prognostic Reasoner (VIPR), a system-level reasoner that encompasses the multiple levels of large, complex systems such as those for aircraft and spacecraft. VIPR health managers are organized hierarchically and operate together to derive diagnostic and prognostic inferences from symptoms and conditions reported by a set of diagnostic and prognostic monitors. For layered reasoners such as VIPR, the overall performance cannot be evaluated by metrics solely directed toward timely detection and accuracy of estimation of the faults in individual components. Among other factors, overall vehicle reasoner performance is governed by the effectiveness of the communication schemes between monitors and reasoners in the architecture, and the ability to propagate and fuse relevant information to make accurate, consistent, and timely predictions at different levels of the reasoner hierarchy. We outline an extended set of diagnostic and prognostics metrics that can be broadly categorized as evaluation measures for diagnostic coverage, prognostic coverage, accuracy of inferences, latency in making inferences, computational cost, and sensitivity to different fault and degradation conditions. We report metrics from Monte Carlo experiments using two variations of an aircraft reference model that supported both flat and hierarchical reasoning.

Development of a turbojet engine gearbox test rig for prognostics and health management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rezaei, Aida; Dadouche, Azzedine

2012-11-01

Aircraft engine gearboxes represent one of the many critical systems/elements that require special attention for longer and safer operation. Reactive maintenance strategies are unsuitable as they usually imply higher repair costs when compared to condition based maintenance. This paper discusses the main prognostics and health management (PHM) approaches, describes a newly designed gearbox experimental facility and analyses preliminary data for gear prognosis. The test rig is designed to provide full capabilities of performing controlled experiments suitable for developing a reliable diagnostic and prognostic system. The rig is based on the accessory gearbox of the GE J85 turbojet engine, which has been slightly modified and reconfigured to replicate real operating conditions such as speeds and loads. Defect to failure tests (DTFT) have been run to evaluate the performance of the rig as well as to assess prognostic metrics extracted from sensors installed on the gearbox casing (vibration and acoustic). The paper also details the main components of the rig and describes the various challenges encountered. Successful DTFT results were obtained during an idle engine performance test and prognostic metrics associated with the sensor suite were evaluated and discussed.

Is there a prognostic relevance of electrophysiological studies in bundle branch block patients?

PubMed

Bogossian, Harilaos; Frommeyer, Gerrit; Göbbert, Kornelius; Hasan, Fuad; Nguyen, Quy Suu; Ninios, Ilias; Mijic, Dejan; Bandorski, Dirk; Hoeltgen, Reinhard; Seyfarth, Melchior; Lemke, Bernd; Eckardt, Lars; Zarse, Markus

2017-08-01

The present European guidelines suggest a diagnostic electrophysiological (EP) study to determine indication for cardiac pacing in patients with bundle branch block and unexplained syncope. We evaluated the prognostic relevance of an EP study for mortality and the development of permanent complete atrioventricular (AV) block in patients with symptomatic bifascicular block and first-degree AV block. The HV interval is a poor prognostic marker to predict the development of permanent AV block in patients with symptomatic bifascicular block (BFB) and AV block I°. Thirty consecutive patients (mean age, 74.8 ± 8.6 years; 25 males) with symptomatic BFB and first-degree AV block underwent an EP study before device implantation, according to current guidelines. For 53 ± 31 months, patients underwent yearly follow-up screening for syncope or higher-degree AV block. Thirty patients presented with prolonged HV interval during the EP study (mean, 82.2 ± 20.1 ms; range, 57-142 ms), classified into 3 groups: group 1, <70 ms (mean, 62 ± 4 ms; range, 57-67 ms; n = 7), group 2, >70 to ≤100 ms (mean, 80 ± 8 ms; range, 70-97 ms; n = 18), and group 3, >100 ms (mean, 119 ± 14 ms; range, 107-142 ms; n = 5). According to the guidelines, patients in groups 2 and 3 received a pacemaker. The length of the HV interval was not associated with the later development of third-degree AV block or with increased mortality. Our present study suggests that an indication for pacemaker implantation based solely on a diagnostic EP study with prolongation of the HV interval is not justified. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Specific prognostic factors for secondary pancreatic infection in severe acute pancreatitis.

PubMed

Armengol-Carrasco, M; Oller, B; Escudero, L E; Roca, J; Gener, J; Rodríguez, N; del Moral, P; Moreno, P

1999-01-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate whether there are specific prognostic factors to predict the development of secondary pancreatic infection (SPI) in severe acute pancreatitis in order to perform a computed tomography-fine needle aspiration with bacteriological sampling at the right moment and confirm the diagnosis. Twenty-five clinical and laboratory parameters were determined sequentially in 150 patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP) and univariate, and multivariate regression analyses were done looking for correlation with the development of SPI. Only APACHE II score and C-reactive protein levels were related to the development of SPI in the multivariate analysis. A regression equation was designed using these two parameters, and empiric cut-off points defined the subgroup of patients at high risk of developing secondary pancreatic infection. The results showed that it is possible to predict SPI during SAP allowing bacteriological confirmation and early treatment of this severe condition.

MeSS: A novel prognostic scale specific for pediatric well-differentiated thyroid cancer: a population-based, SEER outcomes study.

PubMed

Shayota, Brian J; Pawar, Shonali C; Chamberlain, Ronald S

2013-09-01

High-risk prognostic factors for adults with well-differentiated thyroid cancer (WDTC) have been well established, but the same is not true for pediatric patients. This study sought to determine whether validated adult prognostic systems are applicable to pediatric patients and to develop a novel prognostic scale that may better reflect outcomes in pediatric subgroups. We queried 62,007 cases of WDTC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (1973-2009) to identify 895 patients <20 years of age with WDTC. Data abstracted included age, gender, race, histology type, primary tumor size, cancer stage, and mortality. Odds ratio and 95% confidence intervals were set and data were analyzed with SAS version 9.2. Among 895 pediatric WDTC patients, the overall cause-specific mortality was 0.8%. The presence of distant metastasis was associated with the worst prognosis (P = .0045) followed by larger primary tumor size (P = .0135) and male gender (P = .0162). When classified into low-, moderate-, and high-risk categories according to the distant metastasis (Me), larger primary tumor size (S), and male sex (S) (MeSS) algorithm, mortality rates were 0%, 2.7%, and 23%, respectively. Commonly used prognostic indices for WDTC in adults do not reliably predict poor outcomes among pediatric patients. Rather, a system based on MeSS is more applicable to pediatric patients. Patients who exhibit a high MeSS score have a significantly worse overall survival than those who do not express any MeSS characteristics. Copyright © 2013 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Investigating the Effect of Damage Progression Model Choice on Prognostics Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Narasimhan, Sriram; Saha, Sankalita; Saha, Bhaskar; Goebel, Kai

2011-01-01

The success of model-based approaches to systems health management depends largely on the quality of the underlying models. In model-based prognostics, it is especially the quality of the damage progression models, i.e., the models describing how damage evolves as the system operates, that determines the accuracy and precision of remaining useful life predictions. Several common forms of these models are generally assumed in the literature, but are often not supported by physical evidence or physics-based analysis. In this paper, using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we develop different damage progression models. In simulation, we investigate how model changes influence prognostics performance. Results demonstrate that, in some cases, simple damage progression models are sufficient. But, in general, the results show a clear need for damage progression models that are accurate over long time horizons under varied loading conditions.

Research on prognostics and health management of underground pipeline

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Guangdi; Yang, Meng; Yang, Fan; Ni, Na

2018-04-01

With the development of the city, the construction of the underground pipeline is more and more complex, which has relation to the safety and normal operation of the city, known as "the lifeline of the city". First of all, this paper introduces the principle of PHM (Prognostics and Health Management) technology, then proposed for fault diagnosis, prognostics and health management in view of underground pipeline, make a diagnosis and prognostics for the faults appearing in the operation of the underground pipeline, and then make a health assessment of the whole underground pipe network in order to ensure the operation of the pipeline safely. Finally, summarize and prospect the future research direction.

An 8-gene qRT-PCR-based gene expression score that has prognostic value in early breast cancer

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Gene expression profiling may improve prognostic accuracy in patients with early breast cancer. Our objective was to demonstrate that it is possible to develop a simple molecular signature to predict distant relapse. Methods We included 153 patients with stage I-II hormonal receptor-positive breast cancer. RNA was isolated from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded samples and qRT-PCR amplification of 83 genes was performed with gene expression assays. The genes we analyzed were those included in the 70-Gene Signature, the Recurrence Score and the Two-Gene Index. The association among gene expression, clinical variables and distant metastasis-free survival was analyzed using Cox regression models. Results An 8-gene prognostic score was defined. Distant metastasis-free survival at 5 years was 97% for patients defined as low-risk by the prognostic score versus 60% for patients defined as high-risk. The 8-gene score remained a significant factor in multivariate analysis and its performance was similar to that of two validated gene profiles: the 70-Gene Signature and the Recurrence Score. The validity of the signature was verified in independent cohorts obtained from the GEO database. Conclusions This study identifies a simple gene expression score that complements histopathological prognostic factors in breast cancer, and can be determined in paraffin-embedded samples. PMID:20584321

The prognostic significance of circulating serum amyloid A and CXC chemokine ligand 4 in osteosarcoma.

PubMed

Flores, Ricardo J; Kelly, Aaron J; Li, Yiting; Chen, Xiang; McGee, Colin; Krailo, Mark; Barkauskas, Donald A; Hicks, John; Man, Tsz-Kwong

2017-12-01

Osteosarcoma (OS) is the most common pediatric bone cancer.  Despite advances in treatment regimens, the survival rate remains 60-70%.  There is an urgent need to identify prognostic biomarkers, so that targeted therapies can be developed to improve the outcome. Our laboratory has previously identified that circulating serum amyloid A (SAA) and CXC chemokine ligand 4 (CXCL4) are upregulated in patients with OS.  In this study, we tested if they could be used as prognostic biomarkers.  We used enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays to measure their concentrations in serum samples (n = 233) and immunohistochemistry to examine their expressions in primary tumors (n = 37).  Prognostic significance of the serum concentrations and tumor expressions of the biomarkers was then evaluated. Patients with "high SAA" and "low CXCL4" circulating levels at diagnosis significantly correlated with a worse outcome (HR = 1.68, P = 0.014), which was independent of the metastatic status.  These patients also exhibited a significantly higher rate of poor histologic response to chemotherapy.  Furthermore, low tumor expression of CXCL4 correlated with poor survival (HR = 3.57, P = 0.005). Our results demonstrate that circulating SAA and CXCL4 may serve as prognostic biomarkers in OS.  Targeting CXCL4 has been reported, suggesting that it may be exploited as a therapeutic target in OS. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Prognostic Significance of Circulating Serum Amyloid A and CXC Chemokine Ligand 4 in Osteosarcoma

PubMed Central

Flores, Ricardo J.; Kelly, Aaron J.; Li, Yiting; Chen, Xiang; McGee, Colin; Krailo, Mark; Barkauskas, Donald A.; Hicks, John; Man, Tsz-Kwong

2017-01-01

BACKGROUND Osteosarcoma is the most common pediatric bone cancer. Despite advances in treatment regimens, the survival rate remains 60–70%. There is an urgent need to identify prognostic biomarkers, so that targeted therapies can be developed to improve the outcome. PROCEDURE Our lab has previously identified that circulating Serum Amyloid A (SAA) and CXC Chemokine Ligand 4 (CXCL4) are upregulated in patients with osteosarcoma. In this study, we tested if they could be used as prognostic biomarkers. We used ELISAs to measure their concentrations in serum samples (n = 233), and immunohistochemistry to examine expressions in primary tumors (n = 37). Prognostic significance of the serum concentrations and tumor expressions of the biomarkers was then evaluated. RESULTS Patients with “High SAA” and “Low CXCL4” circulating levels at diagnosis significantly correlated with a worse outcome (HR = 1.68, p = 0.014), which was independent of the metastatic status. These patients also exhibited a significantly higher rate of poor histological response to chemotherapy. Furthermore, low tumor expression of CXCL4 correlated with poor survival (HR = 3.57, p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS Our results demonstrate that circulating SAA and CXCL4 may serve as prognostic biomarkers in osteosarcoma. Targeting CXCL4 has been reported, suggesting that it may be exploited as a therapeutic target in osteosarcoma. PMID:28544777

Retrospective cohort study of prognostic factors in patients with oral cavity and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Carrillo, José F; Carrillo, Liliana C; Cano, Ana; Ramirez-Ortega, Margarita C; Chanona, Jorge G; Avilés, Alejandro; Herrera-Goepfert, Roberto; Corona-Rivera, Jaime; Ochoa-Carrillo, Francisco J; Oñate-Ocaña, Luis F

2016-04-01

Prognostic factors in oral cavity and oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) are debated. The purpose of this study was to investigate the association of prognostic factors with oncologic outcomes. Patients with oral cavity and oropharyngeal SCC treated from 1997 to 2012 were included in this retrospective cohort study. Associations of prognostic factors with locoregional recurrence (LRR) or overall survival (OS) were analyzed using the logistic regression and the Cox models. Six hundred thirty-four patients were included in this study; tumor size, surgical margins, and N classification were associated with LRR (p < .0001); considering histopathology: perineural invasion, lymphocytic infiltration, infiltrative borders, and N classification were significant determinants of LRR. Tumor size, N classification, alcoholism, and surgical margins were associated with OS (p < .0001); considering pathologic prognostic factors, perivascular invasion, islands borders, and surgical margins were independently associated with OS (p < .0001). Surgical margins, perineural and perivascular invasion, lymphocytic infiltration, and infiltrative patterns of tumor invasion are significant prognostic factors in oral cavity and oropharyngeal SCC. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A prognostic role for Low tri-iodothyronine syndrome in acute stroke patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Lamba, Nayan; Liu, Chunming; Zaidi, Hasan; Broekman, M L D; Simjian, Thomas; Shi, Chen; Doucette, Joanne; Ren, Steven; Smith, Timothy R; Mekary, Rania A; Bunevicius, Adomas

2018-06-01

Low triiodothyronine (T3) syndrome could be a powerful prognostic factor for acute stroke; yet, a prognostic role for low T3 has not been given enough importance in stroke management. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate whether low T3 among acute stroke patients could be used as a prognostic biomarker for stroke severity, functional outcome, and mortality. Studies that investigated low T3 prognostic roles in acute stroke patients were sought from PubMed/Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases through 11/23/2016. Pooled estimates of baseline stroke severity, mortality, and functional outcomes were assessed from fixed-effect (FE) and random-effects (RE) models. Eighteen studies met the inclusion criteria. Six studies (1,203 patients) provided data for low-T3 and normal-T3 patients and were meta-analyzed. Using the FE model, pooled results revealed low-T3 patients exhibited a significantly higher stroke severity, as assessed by the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score at admission (mean difference = 3.18; 95%CI = 2.74, 3.63; I 2  = 61.9%), had 57% higher risk of developing poor functional outcome (RR = 1.57; 95%CI = 1.33,1.8), and had 83% higher odds of mortality (Peto-OR = 1.83; 95%CI = 1.21, 1.99) compared to normal-T3 patients. In a univariate meta-regression analysis, the low-T3 and stroke severity association was reduced in studies with higher smokers% (slope = -0.11; P = 0.02), higher hypertension% (slope = -0.11; P = 0.047), older age (slope = -0.54; P = 0.02), or longer follow-up (slope = -0/17, P < 0.01). RE models yielded similar results. No significant publication bias was observed for either outcome using Begg's and Egger's tests. Low-T3 syndrome in acute stroke patients is an effective prognostic factor for predicting greater baseline stroke severity, poorer functional outcome, and higher overall mortality risk. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development and Implementation of a Hardware In-the-Loop Test Bed for Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Control Algorithms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nyangweso, Emmanuel; Bole, Brian

2014-01-01

Successful prediction and management of battery life using prognostic algorithms through ground and flight tests is important for performance evaluation of electrical systems. This paper details the design of test beds suitable for replicating loading profiles that would be encountered in deployed electrical systems. The test bed data will be used to develop and validate prognostic algorithms for predicting battery discharge time and battery failure time. Online battery prognostic algorithms will enable health management strategies. The platform used for algorithm demonstration is the EDGE 540T electric unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). The fully designed test beds developed and detailed in this paper can be used to conduct battery life tests by controlling current and recording voltage and temperature to develop a model that makes a prediction of end-of-charge and end-of-life of the system based on rapid state of health (SOH) assessment.

Molecular Imaging and Precision Medicine: PET/Computed Tomography and Therapy Response Assessment in Oncology.

PubMed

Sheikhbahaei, Sara; Mena, Esther; Pattanayak, Puskar; Taghipour, Mehdi; Solnes, Lilja B; Subramaniam, Rathan M

2017-01-01

A variety of methods have been developed to assess tumor response to therapy. Standardized qualitative criteria based on 18F-fluoro-deoxyglucose PET/computed tomography have been proposed to evaluate the treatment effectiveness in specific cancers and these allow more accurate therapy response assessment and survival prognostication. Multiple studies have addressed the utility of the volumetric PET biomarkers as prognostic indicators but there is no consensus about the preferred segmentation methodology for these metrics. Heterogeneous intratumoral uptake was proposed as a novel PET metric for therapy response assessment. PET imaging techniques will be used to study the biological behavior of cancers during therapy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Virtual Laboratory for Aviation and Airspace Prognostics Research

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kulkarni, Chetan; Gorospe, George; Teubert, Christ; Quach, Cuong C.; Hogge, Edward; Darafsheh, Kaveh

2017-01-01

Integration of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), autonomy, spacecraft, and other aviation technologies, in the airspace is becoming more and more complicated, and will continue to do so in the future. Inclusion of new technology and complexity into the airspace increases the importance and difficulty of safety assurance. Additionally, testing new technologies on complex aviation systems and systems of systems can be challenging, expensive, and at times unsafe when implementing real life scenarios. The application of prognostics to aviation and airspace management may produce new tools and insight into these problems. Prognostic methodology provides an estimate of the health and risks of a component, vehicle, or airspace and knowledge of how that will change over time. That measure is especially useful in safety determination, mission planning, and maintenance scheduling. In our research, we develop a live, distributed, hardware- in-the-loop Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed for aviation and airspace prognostics. The developed testbed will be used to validate prediction algorithms for the real-time safety monitoring of the National Airspace System (NAS) and the prediction of unsafe events. In our earlier work1 we discussed the initial Prognostics Virtual Laboratory testbed development work and related results for milestones 1 & 2. This paper describes the design, development, and testing of the integrated tested which are part of milestone 3, along with our next steps for validation of this work. Through a framework consisting of software/hardware modules and associated interface clients, the distributed testbed enables safe, accurate, and inexpensive experimentation and research into airspace and vehicle prognosis that would not have been possible otherwise. The testbed modules can be used cohesively to construct complex and relevant airspace scenarios for research. Four modules are key to this research: the virtual aircraft module which uses the X-Plane simulator and X-PlaneConnect toolbox, the live aircraft module which connects fielded aircraft using onboard cellular communications devices, the hardware in the loop (HITL) module which connects laboratory based bench-top hardware testbeds and the research module which contains diagnostics and prognostics tools for analysis of live air traffic situations and vehicle health conditions. The testbed also features other modules for data recording and playback, information visualization, and air traffic generation. Software reliability, safety, and latency are some of the critical design considerations in development of the testbed.

Comparison of the prognostic utility of the revised International Prognostic Scoring System and the French Prognostic Scoring System in azacitidine-treated patients with myelodysplastic syndromes.

PubMed

Zeidan, Amer M; Lee, Ju-Whei; Prebet, Thomas; Greenberg, Peter; Sun, Zhuoxin; Juckett, Mark; Smith, Mitchell R; Paietta, Elisabeth; Gabrilove, Janice; Erba, Harry P; Tallman, Martin S; Gore, Steven D

2014-08-01

The revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) was developed in a cohort of untreated myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) patients. A French Prognostic Scoring System (FPSS) was recently reported to identify differential survival among azacitidine-treated patients with high-risk MDS. We applied the FPSS and IPSS-R to 150 patients previously randomized to azacitidine monotherapy or a combination of azacitidine with entinostat (a histone deacetylase inhibitor). Neither score predicted response but both discriminated patients with different overall survival (OS; median OS, FPSS: 9·7, 14·7, and 25·3 months, P = 0·018; IPSS-R: 12·5, 11·3, 20·8, and 36 months, P = 0·005). Statistical analysis suggested no improvement in OS prediction for the FPSS over the IPSS-R in azacitidine-treated patients. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

TNM: evolution and relation to other prognostic factors.

PubMed

Sobin, Leslie H

2003-01-01

The TNM Classification describes the anatomic extent of cancer. TNM's ability to separately classify the individual tumor (T), node (N), and metastasis (M) elements and then group them into stages differs from other cancer staging classifications (e.g., Dukes), which are only concerned with summarized groups. The objectives of the TNM Classification are to aid the clinician in the planning of treatment, give some indication of prognosis, assist in the evaluation of the results of treatment, and facilitate the exchange of information. During the past 50 years, the TNM system has evolved under the influence of advances in diagnosis and treatment. Radiographic imaging (e.g., endoscopic ultrasound for the depth of invasion of esophageal and rectal tumors) has improved the accuracy of the clinical T, N, and M classifications. Advances in treatment have necessitated more detail in some T4 categories. Developments in multimodality therapy have increased the importance of the "y" symbol and the R (residual tumor) classification. New surgical techniques have resulted in the elaboration of the sentinel node (sn) symbol. The use of immunohistochemistry has resulted in the classification of isolated tumor cells and their distinction from micrometastasis. The most important challenge facing users of the TNM Classification is how it should interface with the large number of non-anatomic prognostic factors that are currently in use or under study. As non-anatomic prognostic factors become widely used, the TNM system provides an inviting foundation upon which to build a prognostic classification; however, this carries a risk that the system will be overwhelmed by a variety of prognostic data. An anatomic extent-of-disease classification is needed to aid practitioners in selecting the initial therapeutic approach, stratifying patients for therapeutic studies, evaluating non-anatomic prognostic factors at specific anatomic stages, comparing the weight of non-anatomic factors with extent of disease, and communicating the extent of disease data in a uniform manner. Methods are needed to express the overall prognosis without losing the vital anatomic content of TNM. These methods should be able to integrate multiple prognostic factors, including TNM, while permitting the TNM system to remain intact and distinct. This article discusses examples of such approaches.

Prognostic categories and timing of negative prognostic communication from critical care physicians to family members at end-of-life in an intensive care unit.

PubMed

Gutierrez, Karen M

2013-09-01

Negative prognostic communication is often delayed in intensive care units, which limits time for families to prepare for end-of-life. This descriptive study, informed by ethnographic methods, was focused on exploring critical care physician communication of negative prognoses to families and identifying timing influences. Prognostic communication of critical care physicians to nurses and family members was observed and physicians and family members were interviewed. Physician perception of prognostic certainty, based on an accumulation of empirical data, and the perceived need for decision-making, drove the timing of prognostic communication, rather than family needs. Although prognoses were initially identified using intuitive knowledge for patients in one of the six identified prognostic categories, utilizing decision-making to drive prognostic communication resulted in delayed prognostic communication to families until end-of-life (EOL) decisions could be justified with empirical data. Providers will better meet the needs of families who desire earlier prognostic information by separating prognostic communication from decision-making and communicating the possibility of a poor prognosis based on intuitive knowledge, while acknowledging the uncertainty inherent in prognostication. This sets the stage for later prognostic discussions focused on EOL decisions, including limiting or withdrawing treatment, which can be timed when empirical data substantiate intuitive prognoses. This allows additional time for families to anticipate and prepare for end-of-life decision-making. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Factors Affecting Physicians' Intentions to Communicate Personalized Prognostic Information to Cancer Patients at the End of Life: An Experimental Vignette Study.

PubMed

Han, Paul K J; Dieckmann, Nathan F; Holt, Christina; Gutheil, Caitlin; Peters, Ellen

2016-08-01

To explore the effects of personalized prognostic information on physicians' intentions to communicate prognosis to cancer patients at the end of life, and to identify factors that moderate these effects. A factorial experiment was conducted in which 93 family medicine physicians were presented with a hypothetical vignette depicting an end-stage gastric cancer patient seeking prognostic information. Physicians' intentions to communicate prognosis were assessed before and after provision of personalized prognostic information, while emotional distress of the patient and ambiguity (imprecision) of the prognostic estimate were varied between subjects. General linear models were used to test the effects of personalized prognostic information, patient distress, and ambiguity on prognostic communication intentions, and potential moderating effects of 1) perceived patient distress, 2) perceived credibility of prognostic models, 3) physician numeracy (objective and subjective), and 4) physician aversion to risk and ambiguity. Provision of personalized prognostic information increased prognostic communication intentions (P < 0.001, η(2) = 0.38), although experimentally manipulated patient distress and prognostic ambiguity had no effects. Greater change in communication intentions was positively associated with higher perceived credibility of prognostic models (P = 0.007, η(2) = 0.10), higher objective numeracy (P = 0.01, η(2) = 0.09), female sex (P = 0.01, η(2) = 0.08), and lower perceived patient distress (P = 0.02, η(2) = 0.07). Intentions to communicate available personalized prognostic information were positively associated with higher perceived credibility of prognostic models (P = 0.02, η(2) = 0.09), higher subjective numeracy (P = 0.02, η(2) = 0.08), and lower ambiguity aversion (P = 0.06, η(2) = 0.04). Provision of personalized prognostic information increases physicians' prognostic communication intentions to a hypothetical end-stage cancer patient, and situational and physician characteristics moderate this effect. More research is needed to confirm these findings and elucidate the determinants of prognostic communication at the end of life. © The Author(s) 2016.

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability as a prognostic marker in patients with cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases--relationships and comparisons with vascular markers of atherosclerosis.

PubMed

Lau, Kui Kai; Wong, Yuen Kwun; Chan, Yap Hang; Teo, Kay Cheong; Chan, Koon Ho; Wai Li, Leonard Sheung; Cheung, Raymond Tak Fai; Siu, Chung Wah; Ho, Shu Leong; Tse, Hung Fat

2014-07-01

Visit-to-visit blood pressure variability (BPV) is a simple surrogate marker for the development of atherosclerotic diseases, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality. Nevertheless, the relative prognostic value of BPV in comparison with other established vascular assessments remain uncertain. We prospectively followed-up 656 high-risk patients with diabetes or established cardiovascular or cerebrovascular diseases for the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs). Baseline brachial endothelial function, carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaque burden, ankle-brachial index and arterial stiffness were determined. Visit-to-visit BPV were recorded during a mean 18 ± 9 outpatient clinic visits. After a mean 81 ± 12 month's follow-up, 123 patients (19%) developed MACEs. Patients who developed a MACE had significantly higher systolic BPV, more severe endothelial function, arterial stiffness and systemic atherosclerotic burden compared to patients who did not develop a MACE (all P<0.01). BPV significantly correlated with all of the vascular assessments (P<0.01). A high carotid IMT had the greatest prognostic value in predicting development of a MACE (area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) 0.69 ± 0.03, P<0.01). A high BPV also had moderate prognostic value in prediction of MACE (AUC 0.65 ± 0.03, P<0.01). After adjustment of confounding factors, a high BPV remained a significant independent predictor of MACE (hazards ratio 1.67, 95% confidence interval 1.14-2.43, P<0.01). Compared with established surrogate markers of atherosclerosis, visit-to-visit BPV provides similar prognostic information and may represent a new and simple marker for adverse outcomes in patients with vascular diseases. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Molecular Classification Substitutes for the Prognostic Variables Stage, Age, and MYCN Status in Neuroblastoma Risk Assessment.

PubMed

Rosswog, Carolina; Schmidt, Rene; Oberthuer, André; Juraeva, Dilafruz; Brors, Benedikt; Engesser, Anne; Kahlert, Yvonne; Volland, Ruth; Bartenhagen, Christoph; Simon, Thorsten; Berthold, Frank; Hero, Barbara; Faldum, Andreas; Fischer, Matthias

2017-12-01

Current risk stratification systems for neuroblastoma patients consider clinical, histopathological, and genetic variables, and additional prognostic markers have been proposed in recent years. We here sought to select highly informative covariates in a multistep strategy based on consecutive Cox regression models, resulting in a risk score that integrates hazard ratios of prognostic variables. A cohort of 695 neuroblastoma patients was divided into a discovery set (n=75) for multigene predictor generation, a training set (n=411) for risk score development, and a validation set (n=209). Relevant prognostic variables were identified by stepwise multivariable L1-penalized least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, followed by backward selection in multivariable Cox regression, and then integrated into a novel risk score. The variables stage, age, MYCN status, and two multigene predictors, NB-th24 and NB-th44, were selected as independent prognostic markers by LASSO Cox regression analysis. Following backward selection, only the multigene predictors were retained in the final model. Integration of these classifiers in a risk scoring system distinguished three patient subgroups that differed substantially in their outcome. The scoring system discriminated patients with diverging outcome in the validation cohort (5-year event-free survival, 84.9±3.4 vs 63.6±14.5 vs 31.0±5.4; P<.001), and its prognostic value was validated by multivariable analysis. We here propose a translational strategy for developing risk assessment systems based on hazard ratios of relevant prognostic variables. Our final neuroblastoma risk score comprised two multigene predictors only, supporting the notion that molecular properties of the tumor cells strongly impact clinical courses of neuroblastoma patients. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

GPU Accelerated Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorospe, George E., Jr.; Daigle, Matthew J.; Sankararaman, Shankar; Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Ng, Eley

2017-01-01

Prognostic methods enable operators and maintainers to predict the future performance for critical systems. However, these methods can be computationally expensive and may need to be performed each time new information about the system becomes available. In light of these computational requirements, we have investigated the application of graphics processing units (GPUs) as a computational platform for real-time prognostics. Recent advances in GPU technology have reduced cost and increased the computational capability of these highly parallel processing units, making them more attractive for the deployment of prognostic software. We present a survey of model-based prognostic algorithms with considerations for leveraging the parallel architecture of the GPU and a case study of GPU-accelerated battery prognostics with computational performance results.

Intelligent approach to prognostic enhancements of diagnostic systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vachtsevanos, George; Wang, Peng; Khiripet, Noppadon; Thakker, Ash; Galie, Thomas R.

2001-07-01

This paper introduces a novel methodology to prognostics based on a dynamic wavelet neural network construct and notions from the virtual sensor area. This research has been motivated and supported by the U.S. Navy's active interest in integrating advanced diagnostic and prognostic algorithms in existing Naval digital control and monitoring systems. A rudimentary diagnostic platform is assumed to be available providing timely information about incipient or impending failure conditions. We focus on the development of a prognostic algorithm capable of predicting accurately and reliably the remaining useful lifetime of a failing machine or component. The prognostic module consists of a virtual sensor and a dynamic wavelet neural network as the predictor. The virtual sensor employs process data to map real measurements into difficult to monitor fault quantities. The prognosticator uses a dynamic wavelet neural network as a nonlinear predictor. Means to manage uncertainty and performance metrics are suggested for comparison purposes. An interface to an available shipboard Integrated Condition Assessment System is described and applications to shipboard equipment are discussed. Typical results from pump failures are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the methodology.

Prognostics of Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cells stack using an ensemble of constraints based connectionist networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Javed, Kamran; Gouriveau, Rafael; Zerhouni, Noureddine; Hissel, Daniel

2016-08-01

Proton Exchange Membrane Fuel Cell (PEMFC) is considered the most versatile among available fuel cell technologies, which qualify for diverse applications. However, the large-scale industrial deployment of PEMFCs is limited due to their short life span and high exploitation costs. Therefore, ensuring fuel cell service for a long duration is of vital importance, which has led to Prognostics and Health Management of fuel cells. More precisely, prognostics of PEMFC is major area of focus nowadays, which aims at identifying degradation of PEMFC stack at early stages and estimating its Remaining Useful Life (RUL) for life cycle management. This paper presents a data-driven approach for prognostics of PEMFC stack using an ensemble of constraint based Summation Wavelet- Extreme Learning Machine (SW-ELM) models. This development aim at improving the robustness and applicability of prognostics of PEMFC for an online application, with limited learning data. The proposed approach is applied to real data from two different PEMFC stacks and compared with ensembles of well known connectionist algorithms. The results comparison on long-term prognostics of both PEMFC stacks validates our proposition.

Prognostics Approach for Power MOSFET Under Thermal-Stress

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Galvan, Jose Ramon Celaya; Saxena, Abhinav; Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

2012-01-01

The prognostic technique for a power MOSFET presented in this paper is based on accelerated aging of MOSFET IRF520Npbf in a TO-220 package. The methodology utilizes thermal and power cycling to accelerate the life of the devices. The major failure mechanism for the stress conditions is dieattachment degradation, typical for discrete devices with leadfree solder die attachment. It has been determined that dieattach degradation results in an increase in ON-state resistance due to its dependence on junction temperature. Increasing resistance, thus, can be used as a precursor of failure for the die-attach failure mechanism under thermal stress. A feature based on normalized ON-resistance is computed from in-situ measurements of the electro-thermal response. An Extended Kalman filter is used as a model-based prognostics techniques based on the Bayesian tracking framework. The proposed prognostics technique reports on preliminary work that serves as a case study on the prediction of remaining life of power MOSFETs and builds upon the work presented in [1]. The algorithm considered in this study had been used as prognostics algorithm in different applications and is regarded as suitable candidate for component level prognostics. This work attempts to further the validation of such algorithm by presenting it with real degradation data including measurements from real sensors, which include all the complications (noise, bias, etc.) that are regularly not captured on simulated degradation data. The algorithm is developed and tested on the accelerated aging test timescale. In real world operation, the timescale of the degradation process and therefore the RUL predictions will be considerable larger. It is hypothesized that even though the timescale will be larger, it remains constant through the degradation process and the algorithm and model would still apply under the slower degradation process. By using accelerated aging data with actual device measurements and real sensors (no simulated behavior), we are attempting to assess how such algorithm behaves under realistic conditions.

Characterization of KIF11 as a novel prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target for oral cancer.

PubMed

Daigo, Kayo; Takano, Atsushi; Thang, Phung Manh; Yoshitake, Yoshihiro; Shinohara, Masanori; Tohnai, Iwau; Murakami, Yoshinori; Maegawa, Jiro; Daigo, Yataro

2018-01-01

Oral cancer has a high mortality rate, and its incidence is increasing gradually worldwide. As the effectiveness of standard treatments is still limited, the development of new therapeutic strategies is eagerly awaited. Kinesin family member 11 (KIF11) is a motor protein required for establishing a bipolar spindle in cell division. The role of KIF11 in oral cancer is unclear. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess the role of KIF11 in oral cancer and evaluate its role as a prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target for treating oral cancer. Immunohistochemical analysis demonstrated that KIF11 was expressed in 64 of 99 (64.6%) oral cancer tissues but not in healthy oral epithelia. Strong KIF11 expression was significantly associated with poor prognosis among oral cancer patients (P=0.034), and multivariate analysis confirmed its independent prognostic value. In addition, inhibition of KIF11 expression by transfection of siRNAs into oral cancer cells or treatment of cells with a KIF11 inhibitor significantly suppressed cell proliferation, probably through G2/M arrest and subsequent induction of apoptosis. These results suggest that KIF11 could be a potential prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target for oral cancer.

Characterization of KIF11 as a novel prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target for oral cancer

PubMed Central

Daigo, Kayo; Takano, Atsushi; Thang, Phung Manh; Yoshitake, Yoshihiro; Shinohara, Masanori; Tohnai, Iwau; Murakami, Yoshinori; Maegawa, Jiro; Daigo, Yataro

2018-01-01

Oral cancer has a high mortality rate, and its incidence is increasing gradually worldwide. As the effectiveness of standard treatments is still limited, the development of new therapeutic strategies is eagerly awaited. Kinesin family member 11 (KIF11) is a motor protein required for establishing a bipolar spindle in cell division. The role of KIF11 in oral cancer is unclear. Therefore, the present study aimed to assess the role of KIF11 in oral cancer and evaluate its role as a prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target for treating oral cancer. Immunohistochemical analysis demonstrated that KIF11 was expressed in 64 of 99 (64.6%) oral cancer tissues but not in healthy oral epithelia. Strong KIF11 expression was significantly associated with poor prognosis among oral cancer patients (P=0.034), and multivariate analysis confirmed its independent prognostic value. In addition, inhibition of KIF11 expression by transfection of siRNAs into oral cancer cells or treatment of cells with a KIF11 inhibitor significantly suppressed cell proliferation, probably through G2/M arrest and subsequent induction of apoptosis. These results suggest that KIF11 could be a potential prognostic biomarker and therapeutic target for oral cancer. PMID:29115586

NASA IVHM Technology Experiment for X-vehicles (NITEX)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sandra, Hayden; Bajwa, Anupa

2001-01-01

The purpose of the NASA IVHM Technology Experiment for X-vehicles (NITEX) is to advance the development of selected IVHM technologies in a flight environment and to demonstrate the potential for reusable launch vehicle ground processing savings. The technologies to be developed and demonstrated include system-level and detailed diagnostics for real-time fault detection and isolation, prognostics for fault prediction, automated maintenance planning based on diagnostic and prognostic results, and a microelectronics hardware platform. Complete flight The Evolution of Flexible Insulation as IVHM consists of advanced sensors, distributed data acquisition, data processing that includes model-based diagnostics, prognostics and vehicle autonomy for control or suggested action, and advanced data storage. Complete ground IVHM consists of evolved control room architectures, advanced applications including automated maintenance planning and automated ground support equipment. This experiment will advance the development of a subset of complete IVHM.

Discovery and Validation of Prognostic Biomarker Models to Guide Triage among Adult Dengue Patients at Early Infection

PubMed Central

Tolfvenstam, Thomas; Thein, Tun-Linn; Naim, Ahmad Nazri Mohamed; Ling, Ling; Chow, Angelia; Chen, Mark I-Cheng; Ooi, Eng Eong; Leo, Yee Sin; Hibberd, Martin L.

2016-01-01

Background Dengue results in a significant public health burden in endemic regions. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommended the use of warning signs (WS) to stratify patients at risk of severe dengue disease in 2009. However, WS is limited in stratifying adult dengue patients at early infection (Day 1–3 post fever), who require close monitoring in hospitals to prevent severe dengue. The aim of this study is to identify and validate prognostic models, built with differentially expressed biomarkers, that enable the early identification of those with early dengue infection that require close clinical monitoring. Methods RNA microarray and protein assays were performed to identify differentially expressed biomarkers of severity among 92 adult dengue patients recruited at early infection from years 2005–2008. This comprised 47 cases who developed WS after first presentation and required hospitalization (WS+Hosp), as well as 45 controls who did not develop WS after first presentation and did not require hospitalization (Non-WS+Non-Hosp). Independent validation was conducted with 80 adult dengue patients recruited from years 2009–2012. Prognostic models were developed based on forward stepwise and backward elimination estimation, using multiple logistic regressions. Prognostic power was estimated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Results The WS+Hosp group had significantly higher viral load (P<0.001), lower platelet (P<0.001) and lymphocytes counts (P = 0.004) at early infection compared to the Non-WS+Non-Hosp group. From the RNA microarray and protein assays, the top single RNA and protein prognostic models at early infection were CCL8 RNA (AUC:0.73) and IP-10 protein (AUC:0.74), respectively. The model with CCL8, VPS13C RNA, uPAR protein, and with CCL8, VPS13C RNA and platelets were the best biomarker models for stratifying adult dengue patients at early infection, with sensitivity and specificity up to 83% and 84%, respectively. These results were tested in the independent validation group, showing sensitivity and specificity up to 96% and 54.6%, respectively. Conclusions At early infection, adult dengue patients who later presented WS and require hospitalization have significantly different pathophysiology compared with patients who consistently presented no WS and / or require no hospitalization. The molecular prognostic models developed and validated here based on these pathophysiology differences, could offer earlier and complementary indicators to the clinical WHO 2009 WS guide, in order to triage adult dengue patients at early infection. PMID:27286230

Prognostic Prediction Model for Second Allogeneic Stem-Cell Transplantation in Patients With Relapsed Acute Myeloid Leukemia: Single-Center Report.

PubMed

Park, Sung-Soo; Kim, Hee-Je; Min, Kyoung Il; Min, Gi June; Jeon, Young-Woo; Yoon, Jae-Ho; Yahng, Seung-Ah; Shin, Seung-Hwan; Lee, Sung-Eun; Cho, Byung-Sik; Eom, Ki-Seong; Kim, Yoo-Jin; Lee, Seok; Min, Chang-Ki; Cho, Seok-Goo; Kim, Dong-Wook; Lee, Jong Wook; Min, Woo-Sung

2018-04-01

To identify factors affecting survival outcomes and to develop a prognostic model for second allogeneic stem-cell transplantation (allo-SCT2) for relapsed acute myeloid leukemia (AML) after the first autologous or allogeneic stem-cell transplantation. Seventy-eight consecutive adult AML patients who received allo-SCT2 were analyzed in this retrospective study. The 4-year overall survival (OS) rate was 28.7%. In multivariate analysis, poor cytogenetic risk at diagnosis, circulating blast ≥ 20% at relapse, duration from first transplantation to relapse < 9 months, and failure to achieve morphologic complete remission after allo-SCT2 were factors associated with poor OS. A prognostic model was developed with the following score system: intermediate and poor cytogenetic risk at diagnosis (0.5 and 1 point), peripheral blast ≥ 20% at relapse (1 point), duration from the first transplantation to relapse < 9 months (1 point), and failure to achieve morphologic complete remission after allo-SCT2 (1 point). The model identified 2 subgroups according to the 4-year OS rate: 51.3% in the low-risk group (score < 2) and 2.8% in the high-risk group (score ≥ 2) (P < .001). This prognostic model might be useful to make an appropriate decision for allo-SCT2 in relapsed AML after the first autologous or allogeneic stem-cell transplantation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nomograms Predicting Platinum Sensitivity, Progression-Free Survival, and Overall Survival Using Pretreatment Complete Blood Cell Counts in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer

PubMed Central

Paik, E Sun; Sohn, Insuk; Baek, Sun-Young; Shim, Minhee; Choi, Hyun Jin; Kim, Tae-Joong; Choi, Chel Hun; Lee, Jeong-Won; Kim, Byoung-Gie; Lee, Yoo-Young; Bae, Duk-Soo

2017-01-01

Purpose This study was conducted to evaluate the prognostic significance of pre-treatment complete blood cell count (CBC), including white blood cell (WBC) differential, in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patients with primary debulking surgery (PDS) and to develop nomograms for platinum sensitivity, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). Materials and Methods We retrospectively reviewed the records of 757 patients with EOC whose primary treatment consisted of surgical debulking and chemotherapy at Samsung Medical Center from 2002 to 2012. We subsequently created nomograms for platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS as prediction models for prognostic variables including age, stage, grade, cancer antigen 125 level, residual disease after PDS, and pre-treatment WBC differential counts. The models were then validated by 10-fold cross-validation (CV). Results In addition to stage and residual disease after PDS, which are known predictors, lymphocyte and monocyte count were found to be significant prognostic factors for platinum-sensitivity, platelet count for PFS, and neutrophil count for OS on multivariate analysis. The area under the curves of platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS calculated by the 10-fold CV procedure were 0.7405, 0.8159, and 0.815, respectively. Conclusion Prognostic factors including pre-treatment CBC were used to develop nomograms for platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS of patients with EOC. These nomograms can be used to better estimate individual outcomes. PMID:27669704

Nomograms Predicting Platinum Sensitivity, Progression-Free Survival, and Overall Survival Using Pretreatment Complete Blood Cell Counts in Epithelial Ovarian Cancer.

PubMed

Paik, E Sun; Sohn, Insuk; Baek, Sun-Young; Shim, Minhee; Choi, Hyun Jin; Kim, Tae-Joong; Choi, Chel Hun; Lee, Jeong-Won; Kim, Byoung-Gie; Lee, Yoo-Young; Bae, Duk-Soo

2017-07-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the prognostic significance of pre-treatment complete blood cell count (CBC), including white blood cell (WBC) differential, in epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) patients with primary debulking surgery (PDS) and to develop nomograms for platinum sensitivity, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival (OS). We retrospectively reviewed the records of 757 patients with EOC whose primary treatment consisted of surgical debulking and chemotherapy at Samsung Medical Center from 2002 to 2012. We subsequently created nomograms for platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS as prediction models for prognostic variables including age, stage, grade, cancer antigen 125 level, residual disease after PDS, and pre-treatment WBC differential counts. The models were then validated by 10-fold cross-validation (CV). In addition to stage and residual disease after PDS, which are known predictors, lymphocyte and monocyte count were found to be significant prognostic factors for platinum-sensitivity, platelet count for PFS, and neutrophil count for OS on multivariate analysis. The area under the curves of platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS calculated by the 10-fold CV procedure were 0.7405, 0.8159, and 0.815, respectively. Prognostic factors including pre-treatment CBC were used to develop nomograms for platinum sensitivity, 3-year PFS, and 5-year OS of patients with EOC. These nomograms can be used to better estimate individual outcomes.

Prognostic factors and risk stratification in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer receiving docetaxel-based chemotherapy.

PubMed

Yamashita, Shimpei; Kohjimoto, Yasuo; Iguchi, Takashi; Koike, Hiroyuki; Kusumoto, Hiroki; Iba, Akinori; Kikkawa, Kazuro; Kodama, Yoshiki; Matsumura, Nagahide; Hara, Isao

2016-03-22

While novel drugs have been developed, docetaxel remains one of the standard initial systemic therapies for castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) patients. Despite the excellent anti-tumor effect of docetaxel, its severe adverse effects sometimes distress patients. Therefore, it would be very helpful to predict the efficacy of docetaxel before treatment. The aims of this study were to evaluate the potential value of patient characteristics in predicting overall survival (OS) and to develop a risk classification for CRPC patients treated with docetaxel-based chemotherapy. This study included 79 patients with CRPC treated with docetaxel. The variables, including patient characteristics at diagnosis and at the start of chemotherapy, were retrospectively collected. Prognostic factors predicting OS were analyzed using the Cox proportional hazard model. Risk stratification for overall survival was determined based on the results of multivariate analysis. PSA response ≥50 % was observed in 55 (69.6 %) of all patients, and the median OS was 22.5 months. The multivariate analysis showed that age, serum PSA level at the start of chemotherapy, and Hb were independent prognostic factors for OS. In addition, ECOG performance status (PS) and the CRP-to-albumin ratio were not significant but were considered possible predictors for OS. Risk stratification according to the number of these risk factors could effectively stratify CRPC patients treated with docetaxel in terms of OS. Age, serum PSA level at the start of chemotherapy, and Hb were identified as independent prognostic factors of OS. ECOG PS and the CRP-to-albumin ratio were not significant, but were considered possible predictors for OS in Japanese CRPC patients treated with docetaxel. Risk stratification based on these factors could be helpful for estimating overall survival.

Advancing Measurement Science to Assess Monitoring, Diagnostics, and Prognostics for Manufacturing Robotics

PubMed Central

Qiao, Guixiu; Weiss, Brian A.

2016-01-01

Unexpected equipment downtime is a ‘pain point’ for manufacturers, especially in that this event usually translates to financial losses. To minimize this pain point, manufacturers are developing new health monitoring, diagnostic, prognostic, and maintenance (collectively known as prognostics and health management (PHM)) techniques to advance the state-of-the-art in their maintenance strategies. The manufacturing community has a wide-range of needs with respect to the advancement and integration of PHM technologies to enhance manufacturing robotic system capabilities. Numerous researchers, including personnel from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), have identified a broad landscape of barriers and challenges to advancing PHM technologies. One such challenge is the verification and validation of PHM technology through the development of performance metrics, test methods, reference datasets, and supporting tools. Besides documenting and presenting the research landscape, NIST personnel are actively researching PHM for robotics to promote the development of innovative sensing technology and prognostic decision algorithms and to produce a positional accuracy test method that emphasizes the identification of static and dynamic positional accuracy. The test method development will provide manufacturers with a methodology that will allow them to quickly assess the positional health of their robot systems along with supporting the verification and validation of PHM techniques for the robot system. PMID:28058172

Advancing Measurement Science to Assess Monitoring, Diagnostics, and Prognostics for Manufacturing Robotics.

PubMed

Qiao, Guixiu; Weiss, Brian A

2016-01-01

Unexpected equipment downtime is a 'pain point' for manufacturers, especially in that this event usually translates to financial losses. To minimize this pain point, manufacturers are developing new health monitoring, diagnostic, prognostic, and maintenance (collectively known as prognostics and health management (PHM)) techniques to advance the state-of-the-art in their maintenance strategies. The manufacturing community has a wide-range of needs with respect to the advancement and integration of PHM technologies to enhance manufacturing robotic system capabilities. Numerous researchers, including personnel from the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), have identified a broad landscape of barriers and challenges to advancing PHM technologies. One such challenge is the verification and validation of PHM technology through the development of performance metrics, test methods, reference datasets, and supporting tools. Besides documenting and presenting the research landscape, NIST personnel are actively researching PHM for robotics to promote the development of innovative sensing technology and prognostic decision algorithms and to produce a positional accuracy test method that emphasizes the identification of static and dynamic positional accuracy. The test method development will provide manufacturers with a methodology that will allow them to quickly assess the positional health of their robot systems along with supporting the verification and validation of PHM techniques for the robot system.

Development and validation of a prognostic score to predict mortality in patients with acute-on-chronic liver failure.

PubMed

Jalan, Rajiv; Saliba, Faouzi; Pavesi, Marco; Amoros, Alex; Moreau, Richard; Ginès, Pere; Levesque, Eric; Durand, Francois; Angeli, Paolo; Caraceni, Paolo; Hopf, Corinna; Alessandria, Carlo; Rodriguez, Ezequiel; Solis-Muñoz, Pablo; Laleman, Wim; Trebicka, Jonel; Zeuzem, Stefan; Gustot, Thierry; Mookerjee, Rajeshwar; Elkrief, Laure; Soriano, German; Cordoba, Joan; Morando, Filippo; Gerbes, Alexander; Agarwal, Banwari; Samuel, Didier; Bernardi, Mauro; Arroyo, Vicente

2014-11-01

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a frequent syndrome (30% prevalence), characterized by acute decompensation of cirrhosis, organ failure(s) and high short-term mortality. This study develops and validates a specific prognostic score for ACLF patients. Data from 1349 patients included in the CANONIC study were used. First, a simplified organ function scoring system (CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score, CLIF-C OFs) was developed to diagnose ACLF using data from all patients. Subsequently, in 275 patients with ACLF, CLIF-C OFs and two other independent predictors of mortality (age and white blood cell count) were combined to develop a specific prognostic score for ACLF (CLIF Consortium ACLF score [CLIF-C ACLFs]). A concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of CLIF-C ACLF, MELD, MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), and Child-Pugh (CPs) scores. The CLIF-C ACLFs was validated in an external cohort and assessed for sequential use. The CLIF-C ACLFs showed a significantly higher predictive accuracy than MELDs, MELD-Nas, and CPs, reducing (19-28%) the corresponding prediction error rates at all main time points after ACLF diagnosis (28, 90, 180, and 365 days) in both the CANONIC and the external validation cohort. CLIF-C ACLFs computed at 48 h, 3-7 days, and 8-15 days after ACLF diagnosis predicted the 28-day mortality significantly better than at diagnosis. The CLIF-C ACLFs at ACLF diagnosis is superior to the MELDs and MELD-Nas in predicting mortality. The CLIF-C ACLFs is a clinically relevant, validated scoring system that can be used sequentially to stratify the risk of mortality in ACLF patients. Copyright © 2014 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Systematic review of prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica.

PubMed

Verwoerd, A J H; Luijsterburg, P A J; Lin, C W C; Jacobs, W C H; Koes, B W; Verhagen, A P

2013-09-01

Identification of prognostic factors for surgery in patients with sciatica is important to be able to predict surgery in an early stage. Identification of prognostic factors predicting persistent pain, disability and recovery are important for better understanding of the clinical course, to inform patient and physician and support decision making. Consequently, we aimed to systematically review prognostic factors predicting outcome in non-surgically treated patients with sciatica. A search of Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Cinahl, up to March 2012 was performed for prospective cohort studies on prognostic factors for non-surgically treated sciatica. Two reviewers independently selected studies for inclusion and assessed the risk of bias. Outcomes were pain, disability, recovery and surgery. A best evidence synthesis was carried out in order to assess and summarize the data. The initial search yielded 4392 articles of which 23 articles reporting on 14 original cohorts met the inclusion criteria. High clinical, methodological and statistical heterogeneity among studies was found. Reported evidence regarding prognostic factors predicting the outcome in sciatica is limited. The majority of factors that have been evaluated, e.g., age, body mass index, smoking and sensory disturbance, showed no association with outcome. The only positive association with strong evidence was found for leg pain intensity at baseline as prognostic factor for subsequent surgery. © 2013 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

Clinical variables associated with recovery in patients with chronic tension-type headache after treatment with manual therapy.

PubMed

Castien, René F; van der Windt, Daniëlle A W M; Blankenstein, Annette H; Heymans, Martijn W; Dekker, Joost

2012-04-01

The aims of this study were to describe the course of chronic tension-type headache (CTTH) in participants receiving manual therapy (MT), and to develop a prognostic model for predicting recovery in participants receiving MT. Outcomes in 145 adults with CTTH who received MT as participants in a previously published randomised clinical trial (n=41) or in a prospective cohort study (n=104) were evaluated. Assessments were made at baseline and at 8 and 26 weeks of follow-up. Recovery was defined as a 50% reduction in headache days in combination with a score of 'much improved' or 'very much improved' for global perceived improvement. Potential prognostic factors were analyzed by univariable and multivariable regression analysis. After 8 weeks 78% of the participants reported recovery after MT, and after 26 weeks the frequency of recovered participants was 73%. Prognostic factors related to recovery were co-existing migraine, absence of multiple-site pain, greater cervical range of motion and higher headache intensity. In participants classified as being likely to be recovered, the posterior probability for recovery at 8 weeks was 92%, whereas for those being classified at low probability of recovery this posterior probability was 61%. It is concluded that the course of CTTH is favourable in primary care patients receiving MT. The prognostic models provide additional information to improve prediction of outcome. Copyright © 2012 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time from prior chemotherapy enhances prognostic risk grouping in the second-line setting of advanced urothelial carcinoma: a retrospective analysis of pooled, prospective phase 2 trials.

PubMed

Sonpavde, Guru; Pond, Gregory R; Fougeray, Ronan; Choueiri, Toni K; Qu, Angela Q; Vaughn, David J; Niegisch, Guenter; Albers, Peter; James, Nicholas D; Wong, Yu-Ning; Ko, Yoo-Joung; Sridhar, Srikala S; Galsky, Matthew D; Petrylak, Daniel P; Vaishampayan, Ulka N; Khan, Awais; Vogelzang, Nicholas J; Beer, Tomasz M; Stadler, Walter M; O'Donnell, Peter H; Sternberg, Cora N; Rosenberg, Jonathan E; Bellmunt, Joaquim

2013-04-01

Outcomes for patients in the second-line setting of advanced urothelial carcinoma (UC) are dismal. The recognized prognostic factors in this context are Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS) >0, hemoglobin level (Hb) <10 g/dl, and liver metastasis (LM). The purpose of this retrospective study of prospective trials was to investigate the prognostic value of time from prior chemotherapy (TFPC) independent of known prognostic factors. Data from patients from seven prospective trials with available baseline TFPC, Hb, PS, and LM values were used for retrospective analysis (n=570). External validation was conducted in a second-line phase 3 trial comparing best supportive care (BSC) versus vinflunine plus BSC (n=352). Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the association of factors, with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) being the respective primary and secondary outcome measures. ECOG-PS >0, LM, Hb <10 g/dl, and shorter TFPC were significant prognostic factors for OS and PFS on multivariable analysis. Patients with zero, one, two, and three to four factors demonstrated median OS of 12.2, 6.7, 5.1, and 3.0 mo, respectively (concordance statistic=0.638). Setting of prior chemotherapy (metastatic disease vs perioperative) and prior platinum agent (cisplatin or carboplatin) were not prognostic factors. External validation demonstrated a significant association of TFPC with PFS on univariable and most multivariable analyses, and with OS on univariable analyses. Limitations of retrospective analyses are applicable. Shorter TFPC enhances prognostic classification independent of ECOG-PS >0, Hb <10 g/dl, and LM in the setting of second-line therapy for advanced UC. These data may facilitate drug development and interpretation of trials. Copyright © 2012 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Time from Prior Chemotherapy Enhances Prognostic Risk Grouping in the Second-line Setting of Advanced Urothelial Carcinoma: A Retrospective Analysis of Pooled, Prospective Phase 2 Trials

PubMed Central

Sonpavde, Guru; Pond, Gregory R.; Fougeray, Ronan; Choueiri, Toni K.; Qu, Angela Q.; Vaughn, David J.; Niegisch, Guenter; Albers, Peter; James, Nicholas D.; Wong, Yu-Ning; Ko, Yoo-Joung; Sridhar, Srikala S.; Galsky, Matthew D.; Petrylak, Daniel P.; Vaishampayan, Ulka N.; Khan, Awais; Vogelzang, Nicholas J.; Beer, Tomasz M.; Stadler, Walter M.; O’Donnell, Peter H.; Sternberg, Cora N.; Rosenberg, Jonathan E.; Bellmunt, Joaquim

2014-01-01

Background Outcomes for patients in the second-line setting of advanced urothelial carcinoma (UC) are dismal. The recognized prognostic factors in this context are Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance status (PS) >0, hemoglobin level (Hb) <10 g/dl, and liver metastasis (LM). Objectives The purpose of this retrospective study of prospective trials was to investigate the prognostic value of time from prior chemotherapy (TFPC) independent of known prognostic factors. Design, setting, and participants: Data from patients from seven prospective trials with available baseline TFPC, Hb, PS, and LM values were used for retrospective analysis (n = 570). External validation was conducted in a second-line phase 3 trial comparing best supportive care (BSC) versus vinflunine plus BSC (n = 352). Outcome measurements and statistical analysis Cox proportional hazards regression was used to evaluate the association of factors, with overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) being the respective primary and secondary outcome measures. Results and limitations ECOG-PS >0, LM, Hb <10 g/dl, and shorter TFPC were significant prognostic factors for OS and PFS on multivariable analysis. Patients with zero, one, two, and three to four factors demonstrated median OS of 12.2, 6.7, 5.1, and 3.0 mo, respectively (concordance statistic = 0.638). Setting of prior chemotherapy (metastatic disease vs perioperative) and prior platinum agent (cisplatin or carboplatin) were not prognostic factors. External validation demonstrated a significant association of TFPC with PFS on univariable and most multivariable analyses, and with OS on univariable analyses. Limitations of retrospective analyses are applicable. Conclusions Shorter TFPC enhances prognostic classification independent of ECOG-PS>0, Hb<10 g/ dl, and LM in the setting of second-line therapy for advanced UC. These data may facilitate drug development and interpretation of trials. PMID:23206856

Diagnostic and Prognostic Models for Generator Step-Up Transformers

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vivek Agarwal; Nancy J. Lybeck; Binh T. Pham

In 2014, the online monitoring (OLM) of active components project under the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) focused on diagnostic and prognostic capabilities for generator step-up transformers. INL worked with subject matter experts from the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) to augment and revise the GSU fault signatures previously implemented in the Electric Power Research Institute’s (EPRI’s) Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite software. Two prognostic models were identified and implemented for GSUs in the FW-PHM Suite software. INL and EPRI demonstrated the use of prognostic capabilities for GSUs. The complete set of faultmore » signatures developed for GSUs in the Asset Fault Signature Database of the FW-PHM Suite for GSUs is presented in this report. Two prognostic models are described for paper insulation: the Chendong model for degree of polymerization, and an IEEE model that uses a loading profile to calculates life consumption based on hot spot winding temperatures. Both models are life consumption models, which are examples of type II prognostic models. Use of the models in the FW-PHM Suite was successfully demonstrated at the 2014 August Utility Working Group Meeting, Idaho Falls, Idaho, to representatives from different utilities, EPRI, and the Halden Research Project.« less

Metrics for Offline Evaluation of Prognostic Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saxena, Abhinav; Celaya, Jose; Saha, Bhaskar; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

2010-01-01

Prognostic performance evaluation has gained significant attention in the past few years. Currently, prognostics concepts lack standard definitions and suffer from ambiguous and inconsistent interpretations. This lack of standards is in part due to the varied end-user requirements for different applications, time scales, available information, domain dynamics, etc. to name a few. The research community has used a variety of metrics largely based on convenience and their respective requirements. Very little attention has been focused on establishing a standardized approach to compare different efforts. This paper presents several new evaluation metrics tailored for prognostics that were recently introduced and were shown to effectively evaluate various algorithms as compared to other conventional metrics. Specifically, this paper presents a detailed discussion on how these metrics should be interpreted and used. These metrics have the capability of incorporating probabilistic uncertainty estimates from prognostic algorithms. In addition to quantitative assessment they also offer a comprehensive visual perspective that can be used in designing the prognostic system. Several methods are suggested to customize these metrics for different applications. Guidelines are provided to help choose one method over another based on distribution characteristics. Various issues faced by prognostics and its performance evaluation are discussed followed by a formal notational framework to help standardize subsequent developments.

Prognostic Value of Metabolic Liver Function Tests: a Study on 711 Cirrhotic Patients.

PubMed

Lebossé, Fanny; Guillaud, Olivier; Forestier, Julien; Ecochard, Marie; Boillot, Olivier; Roman, Sabine; Mion, François; Dumortier, Jérôme

2016-09-01

The prognosis of cirrhotic patients is usually assessed by Child-Pugh and MELD scores. Metabolic liver function tests such as aminopyrine breath test (ABT) and indocyanine green clearance (IGC) have been shown to reveal hepatocellular dysfunction. The aim of this retrospective study was to compare the prognostic value of the MELD score, Child-Pugh score, ABT and IGC in a large cohort of cirrhotic patients. Between January 1996 and June 2008, 711 cirrhotic patients were included and the primary endpoint was survival without LT. The ROC curves with c-statistics, correlation coefficient and survival were calculated. Metabolic function tests and scores were strongly correlated. At the time of evaluation, 111 patients had died and 520 had received a transplant. Prognostic ability (estimated by the AUROC curve) to predict survival without LT at 6 months was 0.662, 0.691, 0.738 and 0.715 for ABT, IGC, Child-Pugh score and MELD score, respectively. Similarly, at 1 year, AUROC was 0.738 for Child-Pugh score, 0.716 for MELD score, 0.693 for IGC clearance and 0.651 for ABT. Our results strongly confirm that IGC and ABT have a high prognostic value in cirrhotic patients, similar to Child-Pugh and MELD scores. They could be developed to routinely evaluate the prognosis of patients in addition to clinical and biochemical data.

The evolving field of prognostication and risk stratification in MDS: Recent developments and future directions.

PubMed

Lee, Eun-Ju; Podoltsev, Nikolai; Gore, Steven D; Zeidan, Amer M

2016-01-01

The clinical course of patients with myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) is characterized by wide variability reflecting the underlying genetic and biological heterogeneity of the disease. Accurate prediction of outcomes for individual patients is an integral part of the evidence-based risk/benefit calculations that are necessary for tailoring the aggressiveness of therapeutic interventions. While several prognostication tools have been developed and validated for risk stratification, each of these systems has limitations. The recent progress in genomic sequencing techniques has led to discoveries of recurrent molecular mutations in MDS patients with independent impact on relevant clinical outcomes. Reliable assays of these mutations have already entered the clinic and efforts are currently ongoing to formally incorporate mutational analysis into the existing clinicopathologic risk stratification tools. Additionally, mutational analysis holds promise for going beyond prognostication to therapeutic selection and individualized treatment-specific prediction of outcomes; abilities that would revolutionize MDS patient care. Despite these exciting developments, the best way of incorporating molecular testing for use in prognostication and prediction of outcomes in clinical practice remains undefined and further research is warranted. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A classification prognostic score to predict OS in stage IV well-differentiated neuroendocrine tumors

PubMed Central

Pusceddu, Sara; Barretta, Francesco; Trama, Annalisa; Botta, Laura; Milione, Massimo; Buzzoni, Roberto; De Braud, Filippo; Mazzaferro, Vincenzo; Pastorino, Ugo; Seregni, Ettore; Mariani, Luigi; Gatta, Gemma; Di Bartolomeo, Maria; Femia, Daniela; Prinzi, Natalie; Coppa, Jorgelina; Panzuto, Francesco; Antonuzzo, Lorenzo; Bajetta, Emilio; Brizzi, Maria Pia; Campana, Davide; Catena, Laura; Comber, Harry; Dwane, Fiona; Fazio, Nicola; Faggiano, Antongiulio; Giuffrida, Dario; Henau, Kris; Ibrahim, Toni; Marconcini, Riccardo; Massironi, Sara; Žakelj, Maja Primic; Spada, Francesca; Tafuto, Salvatore; Van Eycken, Elizabeth; Van der Zwan, Jan Maaten; Žagar, Tina; Giacomelli, Luca; Miceli, Rosalba; Aroldi, Francesca; Bongiovanni, Alberto; Berardi, Rossana; Brighi, Nicole; Cingarlini, Sara; Cauchi, Carolina; Cavalcoli, Federica; Carnaghi, Carlo; Corti, Francesca; Duro, Marilina; Davì, Maria Vittoria; De Divitiis, Chiara; Ermacora, Paola; La Salvia, Anna; Luppi, Gabriele; Lo Russo, Giuseppe; Nichetti, Federico; Raimondi, Alessandra; Perfetti, Vittorio; Razzore, Paola; Rinzivillo, Maria; Siesling, Sabine; Torchio, Martina; Van Dijk, Boukje; Visser, Otto; Vernieri, Claudio

2018-01-01

No validated prognostic tool is available for predicting overall survival (OS) of patients with well-differentiated neuroendocrine tumors (WDNETs). This study, conducted in three independent cohorts of patients from five different European countries, aimed to develop and validate a classification prognostic score for OS in patients with stage IV WDNETs. We retrospectively collected data on 1387 patients: (i) patients treated at the Istituto Nazionale Tumori (Milan, Italy; n = 515); (ii) European cohort of rare NET patients included in the European RARECAREnet database (n = 457); (iii) Italian multicentric cohort of pancreatic NET (pNETs) patients treated at 24 Italian institutions (n = 415). The score was developed using data from patients included in cohort (i) (training set); external validation was performed by applying the score to the data of the two independent cohorts (ii) and (iii) evaluating both calibration and discriminative ability (Harrell C statistic). We used data on age, primary tumor site, metastasis (synchronous vs metachronous), Ki-67, functional status and primary surgery to build the score, which was developed for classifying patients into three groups with differential 10-year OS: (I) favorable risk group: 10-year OS ≥70%; (II) intermediate risk group: 30% ≤ 10-year OS < 70%; (III) poor risk group: 10-year OS <30%. The Harrell C statistic was 0.661 in the training set, and 0.626 and 0.601 in the RARECAREnet and Italian multicentric validation sets, respectively. In conclusion, based on the analysis of three ‘field-practice’ cohorts collected in different settings, we defined and validated a prognostic score to classify patients into three groups with different long-term prognoses. PMID:29559553

Personalising the decision for prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy: development, validation and potential impact of prognostic models for cardiovascular events and bleeding in myocardial infarction survivors

PubMed Central

Pasea, Laura; Chung, Sheng-Chia; Pujades-Rodriguez, Mar; Moayyeri, Alireza; Denaxas, Spiros; Fox, Keith A.A.; Wallentin, Lars; Pocock, Stuart J.; Timmis, Adam; Banerjee, Amitava; Patel, Riyaz; Hemingway, Harry

2017-01-01

Aims The aim of this study is to develop models to aid the decision to prolong dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) that requires balancing an individual patient’s potential benefits and harms. Methods and results Using population-based electronic health records (EHRs) (CALIBER, England, 2000–10), of patients evaluated 1 year after acute myocardial infarction (MI), we developed (n = 12 694 patients) and validated (n = 5613) prognostic models for cardiovascular (cardiovascular death, MI or stroke) events and three different bleeding endpoints. We applied trial effect estimates to determine potential benefits and harms of DAPT and the net clinical benefit of individuals. Prognostic models for cardiovascular events (c-index: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.77)) and bleeding (c index 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.77)) were well calibrated: 3-year risk of cardiovascular events was 16.5% overall (5.2% in the lowest- and 46.7% in the highest-risk individuals), while for major bleeding, it was 1.7% (0.3% in the lowest- and 5.4% in the highest-risk patients). For every 10 000 patients treated per year, we estimated 249 (95% CI: 228, 269) cardiovascular events prevented and 134 (95% CI: 87, 181) major bleeding events caused in the highest-risk patients, and 28 (95% CI: 19, 37) cardiovascular events prevented and 9 (95% CI: 0, 20) major bleeding events caused in the lowest-risk patients. There was a net clinical benefit of prolonged DAPT in 63–99% patients depending on how benefits and harms were weighted. Conclusion Prognostic models for cardiovascular events and bleeding using population-based EHRs may help to personalise decisions for prolonged DAPT 1-year following acute MI. PMID:28329300

Personalising the decision for prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy: development, validation and potential impact of prognostic models for cardiovascular events and bleeding in myocardial infarction survivors.

PubMed

Pasea, Laura; Chung, Sheng-Chia; Pujades-Rodriguez, Mar; Moayyeri, Alireza; Denaxas, Spiros; Fox, Keith A A; Wallentin, Lars; Pocock, Stuart J; Timmis, Adam; Banerjee, Amitava; Patel, Riyaz; Hemingway, Harry

2017-04-07

The aim of this study is to develop models to aid the decision to prolong dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) that requires balancing an individual patient's potential benefits and harms. Using population-based electronic health records (EHRs) (CALIBER, England, 2000-10), of patients evaluated 1 year after acute myocardial infarction (MI), we developed (n = 12 694 patients) and validated (n = 5613) prognostic models for cardiovascular (cardiovascular death, MI or stroke) events and three different bleeding endpoints. We applied trial effect estimates to determine potential benefits and harms of DAPT and the net clinical benefit of individuals. Prognostic models for cardiovascular events (c-index: 0.75 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.77)) and bleeding (c index 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67, 0.77)) were well calibrated: 3-year risk of cardiovascular events was 16.5% overall (5.2% in the lowest- and 46.7% in the highest-risk individuals), while for major bleeding, it was 1.7% (0.3% in the lowest- and 5.4% in the highest-risk patients). For every 10 000 patients treated per year, we estimated 249 (95% CI: 228, 269) cardiovascular events prevented and 134 (95% CI: 87, 181) major bleeding events caused in the highest-risk patients, and 28 (95% CI: 19, 37) cardiovascular events prevented and 9 (95% CI: 0, 20) major bleeding events caused in the lowest-risk patients. There was a net clinical benefit of prolonged DAPT in 63-99% patients depending on how benefits and harms were weighted. Prognostic models for cardiovascular events and bleeding using population-based EHRs may help to personalise decisions for prolonged DAPT 1-year following acute MI. © The Author 2017. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology

Using Multivariate Regression Model with Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to Predict the Incidence of Xerostomia after Intensity-Modulated Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Cancer

PubMed Central

Ting, Hui-Min; Chang, Liyun; Huang, Yu-Jie; Wu, Jia-Ming; Wang, Hung-Yu; Horng, Mong-Fong; Chang, Chun-Ming; Lan, Jen-Hong; Huang, Ya-Yu; Fang, Fu-Min; Leung, Stephen Wan

2014-01-01

Purpose The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate logistic regression model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to make valid predictions about the incidence of moderate-to-severe patient-rated xerostomia among head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with IMRT. Methods and Materials Quality of life questionnaire datasets from 206 patients with HNC were analyzed. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-H&N35 and QLQ-C30 questionnaires were used as the endpoint evaluation. The primary endpoint (grade 3+ xerostomia) was defined as moderate-to-severe xerostomia at 3 (XER3m) and 12 months (XER12m) after the completion of IMRT. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models were developed. The optimal and suboptimal numbers of prognostic factors for a multivariate logistic regression model were determined using the LASSO with bootstrapping technique. Statistical analysis was performed using the scaled Brier score, Nagelkerke R2, chi-squared test, Omnibus, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the AUC. Results Eight prognostic factors were selected by LASSO for the 3-month time point: Dmean-c, Dmean-i, age, financial status, T stage, AJCC stage, smoking, and education. Nine prognostic factors were selected for the 12-month time point: Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, T stage, baseline xerostomia, alcohol abuse, family history, and node classification. In the selection of the suboptimal number of prognostic factors by LASSO, three suboptimal prognostic factors were fine-tuned by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and AUC, i.e., Dmean-c, Dmean-i, and age for the 3-month time point. Five suboptimal prognostic factors were also selected for the 12-month time point, i.e., Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, and T stage. The overall performance for both time points of the NTCP model in terms of scaled Brier score, Omnibus, and Nagelkerke R2 was satisfactory and corresponded well with the expected values. Conclusions Multivariate NTCP models with LASSO can be used to predict patient-rated xerostomia after IMRT. PMID:24586971

Using multivariate regression model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to predict the incidence of Xerostomia after intensity-modulated radiotherapy for head and neck cancer.

PubMed

Lee, Tsair-Fwu; Chao, Pei-Ju; Ting, Hui-Min; Chang, Liyun; Huang, Yu-Jie; Wu, Jia-Ming; Wang, Hung-Yu; Horng, Mong-Fong; Chang, Chun-Ming; Lan, Jen-Hong; Huang, Ya-Yu; Fang, Fu-Min; Leung, Stephen Wan

2014-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop a multivariate logistic regression model with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) to make valid predictions about the incidence of moderate-to-severe patient-rated xerostomia among head and neck cancer (HNC) patients treated with IMRT. Quality of life questionnaire datasets from 206 patients with HNC were analyzed. The European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer QLQ-H&N35 and QLQ-C30 questionnaires were used as the endpoint evaluation. The primary endpoint (grade 3(+) xerostomia) was defined as moderate-to-severe xerostomia at 3 (XER3m) and 12 months (XER12m) after the completion of IMRT. Normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models were developed. The optimal and suboptimal numbers of prognostic factors for a multivariate logistic regression model were determined using the LASSO with bootstrapping technique. Statistical analysis was performed using the scaled Brier score, Nagelkerke R(2), chi-squared test, Omnibus, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and the AUC. Eight prognostic factors were selected by LASSO for the 3-month time point: Dmean-c, Dmean-i, age, financial status, T stage, AJCC stage, smoking, and education. Nine prognostic factors were selected for the 12-month time point: Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, T stage, baseline xerostomia, alcohol abuse, family history, and node classification. In the selection of the suboptimal number of prognostic factors by LASSO, three suboptimal prognostic factors were fine-tuned by Hosmer-Lemeshow test and AUC, i.e., Dmean-c, Dmean-i, and age for the 3-month time point. Five suboptimal prognostic factors were also selected for the 12-month time point, i.e., Dmean-i, education, Dmean-c, smoking, and T stage. The overall performance for both time points of the NTCP model in terms of scaled Brier score, Omnibus, and Nagelkerke R(2) was satisfactory and corresponded well with the expected values. Multivariate NTCP models with LASSO can be used to predict patient-rated xerostomia after IMRT.

Model-Based Prognostics of Hybrid Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Roychoudhury, Indranil; Bregon, Anibal

2015-01-01

Model-based prognostics has become a popular approach to solving the prognostics problem. However, almost all work has focused on prognostics of systems with continuous dynamics. In this paper, we extend the model-based prognostics framework to hybrid systems models that combine both continuous and discrete dynamics. In general, most systems are hybrid in nature, including those that combine physical processes with software. We generalize the model-based prognostics formulation to hybrid systems, and describe the challenges involved. We present a general approach for modeling hybrid systems, and overview methods for solving estimation and prediction in hybrid systems. As a case study, we consider the problem of conflict (i.e., loss of separation) prediction in the National Airspace System, in which the aircraft models are hybrid dynamical systems.

Pattern of somatostatin receptors expression in normal and bladder cancer tissue samples.

PubMed

Karavitakis, Markos; Msaouel, Pavlos; Michalopoulos, Vassilis; Koutsilieris, Michael

2014-06-01

Known risks factors for bladder cancer progression and recurrence are limited regarding their prognostic ability. Therefore identification of molecular determinants of disease progression could provide with more specific prognostic information and could be translated into new approaches for biomarker development. In the present study we evaluated, the expression patterns of somatostatin receptors 1-5 (SSTRs) in normal and tumor bladder tissues. The expression of SSTR1-5 was characterized in 45 normal and bladder cancer tissue samples using reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR). SSTR1 was expressed in 24 samples, SSTR2 in 15, SSTR3 in 23, SSTR4 in 16 and SSTR5 in all but one sample. Bladder cancer tissue samples expressed lower levels of SSTR3. Co-expression of SSTRs was associated with superficial disease. Our results demonstrate, for the first time, that there is expression of SSTR in normal and bladder cancer urothelium. Further studies are required to evaluate the prognostic and therapeutic significance of these findings. Copyright© 2014 International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. John G. Delinassios), All rights reserved.

Transparent Reporting of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD): The TRIPOD Statement.

PubMed

Collins, Gary S; Reitsma, Johannes B; Altman, Douglas G; Moons, Karel G M

2015-06-01

Prediction models are developed to aid health care providers in estimating the probability or risk that a specific disease or condition is present (diagnostic models) or that a specific event will occur in the future (prognostic models), to inform their decision making. However, the overwhelming evidence shows that the quality of reporting of prediction model studies is poor. Only with full and clear reporting of information on all aspects of a prediction model can risk of bias and potential usefulness of prediction models be adequately assessed. The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. This article describes how the TRIPOD Statement was developed. An extensive list of items based on a review of the literature was created, which was reduced after a Web-based survey and revised during a 3-day meeting in June 2011 with methodologists, health care professionals, and journal editors. The list was refined during several meetings of the steering group and in e-mail discussions with the wider group of TRIPOD contributors. The resulting TRIPOD Statement is a checklist of 22 items, deemed essential for transparent reporting of a prediction model study. The TRIPOD Statement aims to improve the transparency of the reporting of a prediction model study regardless of the study methods used. The TRIPOD Statement is best used in conjunction with the TRIPOD explanation and elaboration document. To aid the editorial process and readers of prediction model studies, it is recommended that authors include a completed checklist in their submission (also available at www.tripod-statement.org). The Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis Or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) Initiative developed a set of recommendations for the reporting of studies developing, validating, or updating a prediction model, whether for diagnostic or prognostic purposes. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Molecular biology of testicular germ cell tumors.

PubMed

Gonzalez-Exposito, R; Merino, M; Aguayo, C

2016-06-01

Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCTs) are the most common solid tumors in young adult men. They constitute a unique pathology because of their embryonic and germ origin and their special behavior. Genetic predisposition, environmental factors involved in their development and genetic aberrations have been under study in many works throughout the last years trying to explain the susceptibility and the transformation mechanism of TGCTs. Despite the high rate of cure in this type of tumors because its particular sensitivity to cisplatin, there are tumors resistant to chemotherapy for which it is needed to find new therapies. In the present work, it has been carried out a literature review on the most important molecular aspects involved in the onset and development of such tumors, as well as a review of the major developments regarding prognostic factors, new prognostic biomarkers and the possibility of new targeted therapies.

Profiling of Resistance Patterns & Oncogenic Signaling Pathways in Evaluation of Cancers of the Thorax and Therapeutic Target Identification

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-06-01

mutation si gnature i s prognostic in EGFR wild-type l ung adenocarcinomas and identifies Metastasis associated in colon cancer 1 (MACC1) as an EGFR...T790M mutation (N=7, blue curve) (AUC: area under the curve). Figure 3. EGFR dependency signature is a favorable prognostic factor. EGFR index...developed. T he si gnature w as shown t o b e prognostic regardless of EGFR status. T he results also suggest MACC1 to be a regulator of MET in NSCLC

Non-traumatic arm, neck and shoulder complaints: prevalence, course and prognosis in a Dutch university population.

PubMed

Bruls, Vivian E J; Bastiaenen, Caroline H G; de Bie, Rob A

2013-01-04

Complaints of arm, neck and shoulder are a major health problem in Western societies and a huge economic burden due to sickness absence and health-care costs. In 2003 the 12-month prevalence's in the Netherlands were estimated at 31.4% for neck pain, 30.3% for shoulder pain, and 17.5% for wrist and hand pain. Research data suggest that these complaints are increasingly common among university students. The aims of the present study are to provide insight into the prevalence of complaints of arm, neck or shoulder in a university population, to evaluate the clinical course of these complaints and to identify prognostic factors which influence this course. The present study is designed as a prospective cohort study, in which a cross-sectional survey is embedded. A self-administered cross-sectional survey will be conducted to gain insight into the prevalence of complaints of arm, neck or shoulder among university students and staff, and to identify persons who are eligible for follow up in the prognostic cohort study. Patients with a new complaint of pain and discomfort in neck and upper extremities between 18-65 years will be asked to participate in the prognostic cohort study. At baseline, after 6, 12, 26 and 52 weeks individual patient data will be collected by means of digitized self-administered questionnaires. The following putative prognostic determinants will be investigated: socio-demographic factors, work-related factors, complaint characteristics, physical activity and psychosocial factors.The primary outcome is subjective recovery. Secondary outcomes are functional limitations of the arm, neck, shoulder and hand, and complaint severity during the previous week. To our knowledge, this is the first prognostic study on the course of complaints of arm, neck or shoulder that is conducted within a university population. Moreover, there are hardly any studies that have estimated the prevalence of these complaints among university students. The results of this study can be used for patient education and management decisions, as well as for the development of interventions. Moreover, identification of high risk groups in the population is needed to generate hypotheses or explanations of health differences and for the design of prevention programs.

Prognostic value of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes on residual disease after primary chemotherapy for triple-negative breast cancer: a retrospective multicenter study

PubMed Central

Dieci, M. V.; Criscitiello, C.; Goubar, A.; Viale, G.; Conte, P.; Guarneri, V.; Ficarra, G.; Mathieu, M. C.; Delaloge, S.; Curigliano, G.; Andre, F.

2014-01-01

Background There is a need to develop surrogates for treatment efficacy in the neoadjuvant setting to speed-up drug development and stratify patients according to outcome. Preclinical studies showed that chemotherapy induces an antitumor immune response. In order to develop new surrogates for drug efficacy, we assessed the prognostic value of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TIL) on residual disease after neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) in patients with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Patients and methods Three hundred four TNBC patients with residual disease after NACT were retrospectively identified in three different hospitals. Hematoxylin and eosin-stained slides from surgical postchemotherapy specimens were evaluated for intratumoral (It-TIL) and stromal (Str-TIL) TIL. Cases were classified as High-TIL if It-TIL and/or Str-TIL >60%. Results TIL were assessable for 278 cases. Continuous It-TIL and Str-TIL variables were strong prognostic factors in the multivariate model, both for metastasis-free [hazard ratio (HR) 0.86, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.77–0.96, P = 0.01 and HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.75–0.98, P = 0.02 for Str-TIL and It-TIL, respectively] and overall survival (HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.77–0.97, P = 0.01 and HR 0.86, 95% CI 0.75–0.99, P = 0.03 for Str-TIL and It-TIL, respectively). The 5-year overall survival rate was 91% (95% CI 68% to 97%) for High-TIL patients (n = 27) and 55% (95% CI 48% to 61%) for Low-TIL patients (HR 0.19, 95% CI 0.06–0.61, log-rank P = 0.0017). The major prognostic impact of TIL was seen for patients with large tumor burden following NACT (residual tumor >2 cm and/or node metastasis). In all but one High-TIL case, It-TIL and Str-TIL values were lower on the prechemotherapy sample. Conclusions The presence of TIL in residual disease after NACT is associated with better prognosis in TNBC patients. This parameter may represent a new surrogate of drug efficacy to test investigational agents in the neoadjuvant setting and a new prognostic marker to select patients at high risk of relapse. PMID:24401929

Object-oriented regression for building predictive models with high dimensional omics data from translational studies.

PubMed

Zhao, Lue Ping; Bolouri, Hamid

2016-04-01

Maturing omics technologies enable researchers to generate high dimension omics data (HDOD) routinely in translational clinical studies. In the field of oncology, The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) provided funding support to researchers to generate different types of omics data on a common set of biospecimens with accompanying clinical data and has made the data available for the research community to mine. One important application, and the focus of this manuscript, is to build predictive models for prognostic outcomes based on HDOD. To complement prevailing regression-based approaches, we propose to use an object-oriented regression (OOR) methodology to identify exemplars specified by HDOD patterns and to assess their associations with prognostic outcome. Through computing patient's similarities to these exemplars, the OOR-based predictive model produces a risk estimate using a patient's HDOD. The primary advantages of OOR are twofold: reducing the penalty of high dimensionality and retaining the interpretability to clinical practitioners. To illustrate its utility, we apply OOR to gene expression data from non-small cell lung cancer patients in TCGA and build a predictive model for prognostic survivorship among stage I patients, i.e., we stratify these patients by their prognostic survival risks beyond histological classifications. Identification of these high-risk patients helps oncologists to develop effective treatment protocols and post-treatment disease management plans. Using the TCGA data, the total sample is divided into training and validation data sets. After building up a predictive model in the training set, we compute risk scores from the predictive model, and validate associations of risk scores with prognostic outcome in the validation data (P-value=0.015). Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Object-Oriented Regression for Building Predictive Models with High Dimensional Omics Data from Translational Studies

PubMed Central

Zhao, Lue Ping; Bolouri, Hamid

2016-01-01

Maturing omics technologies enable researchers to generate high dimension omics data (HDOD) routinely in translational clinical studies. In the field of oncology, The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) provided funding support to researchers to generate different types of omics data on a common set of biospecimens with accompanying clinical data and to make the data available for the research community to mine. One important application, and the focus of this manuscript, is to build predictive models for prognostic outcomes based on HDOD. To complement prevailing regression-based approaches, we propose to use an object-oriented regression (OOR) methodology to identify exemplars specified by HDOD patterns and to assess their associations with prognostic outcome. Through computing patient’s similarities to these exemplars, the OOR-based predictive model produces a risk estimate using a patient’s HDOD. The primary advantages of OOR are twofold: reducing the penalty of high dimensionality and retaining the interpretability to clinical practitioners. To illustrate its utility, we apply OOR to gene expression data from non-small cell lung cancer patients in TCGA and build a predictive model for prognostic survivorship among stage I patients, i.e., we stratify these patients by their prognostic survival risks beyond histological classifications. Identification of these high-risk patients helps oncologists to develop effective treatment protocols and post-treatment disease management plans. Using the TCGA data, the total sample is divided into training and validation data sets. After building up a predictive model in the training set, we compute risk scores from the predictive model, and validate associations of risk scores with prognostic outcome in the validation data (p=0.015). PMID:26972839

Development of a prognostic scale for severely hemiplegic stroke patients in a rehabilitation hospital.

PubMed

Hirano, Yoshitake; Nitta, Osamu; Hayashi, Takeshi; Takahashi, Hidetoshi; Miyazaki, Yasuhiro; Kigawa, Hiroshi

2017-07-01

For patients with severe hemiplegia in a rehabilitation hospital, early prediction of the functional prognosis and outcomes is challenging. The purpose of this study was to create and verify a prognostic scale in severely hemiplegic stroke patients and allowing for prediction of (1) the ability to walk at the time of hospital discharge, (2) the ability to carry out activities of daily living (ADL), and (3) feasibility of home discharge. The study was conducted on 80 severely hemiplegic stroke patients. A prognostic scale was created as an analysis method using the following items: mini-mental state examination (MMSE) at the time of admission, modified NIH stroke scale (m-NIHSS); trunk control test (TCT); and the ratio of the knee extensor strength on the non-paralyzed side to the body weight (KES/BW-US). We verified the reliability and validity of this scale. We established a prognostic scale using the MMSE, m-NIHSS, TCT, and KES/BW-US. A score of 56.8 or higher on the prognostic scale suggested that the patient would be able to walk and that assistance with ADL would be unnecessary at the time of hospital discharge. In addition, a score of 41.3 points indicated that the patient's return home was feasible. The reliability and the results were in good agreement. These findings showed that the ability or inability to walk was predictable in 85%, the need of assistance with ADL in 82.5%, and the feasibility of home return in 76.3% of cases. At the time of admission, four evaluation items permitted the prediction of three outcomes at time of discharge. Our formula predicts three outcomes with an accuracy of more than 76%. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Novel pathologic scoring tools predict end-stage kidney disease in light chain (AL) amyloidosis.

PubMed

Rubinstein, Samuel; Cornell, Robert F; Du, Liping; Concepcion, Beatrice; Goodman, Stacey; Harrell, Shelton; Horst, Sara; Lenihan, Daniel; Slosky, David; Fogo, Agnes; Langone, Anthony

2017-09-01

Light chain (AL) amyloidosis frequently involves the kidney, causing significant morbidity and mortality. A pathologic scoring system with prognostic utility has not been developed. We hypothesized that the extent of amyloid deposition and degree of scarring injury on kidney biopsy, could provide prognostic value, and aimed to develop pathologic scoring tools based on these features. This is a case-control study of 39 patients treated for AL amyloidosis with biopsy-proven kidney involvement at a large academic medical center. Our novel scoring tools, composite scarring injury score (CSIS) and amyloid score (AS) were applied to each kidney biopsy. The primary outcome was progression to dialysis-dependent end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) using a 12-month landmark analysis. At 12 months, nine patients had progressed to ESKD. Patients with an AS ≥7.5 had a significantly higher cumulative incidence of ESKD than those with AS <7.5 (p = .04, 95% CI 0.13-0.64). Using a 12-month landmark analysis, AS correlated with progression to ESKD. These data suggest that a kidney biopsy, in addition to providing diagnostic information, can be the basis for a pathologic scoring system with prognostic significance.

Treatment-Related Predictive and Prognostic Factors in Trimodality Approach in Stage IIIA/N2 Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

PubMed

Jeremić, Branislav; Casas, Francesc; Dubinsky, Pavol; Gomez-Caamano, Antonio; Čihorić, Nikola; Videtic, Gregory; Igrutinovic, Ivan

2018-01-01

While there are no established pretreatment predictive and prognostic factors in patients with stage IIIA/pN2 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) indicating a benefit to surgery as a part of trimodality approach, little is known about treatment-related predictive and prognostic factors in this setting. A literature search was conducted to identify possible treatment-related predictive and prognostic factors for patients for whom trimodality approach was reported on. Overall survival was the primary endpoint of this study. Of 30 identified studies, there were two phase II studies, 5 "prospective" studies, and 23 retrospective studies. No study was found which specifically looked at treatment-related predictive factors of improved outcomes in trimodality treatment. Of potential treatment-related prognostic factors, the least frequently analyzed factors among 30 available studies were overall pathologic stage after preoperative treatment and UICC downstaging. Evaluation of treatment response before surgery and by pathologic tumor stage after induction therapy were analyzed in slightly more than 40% of studies and found not to influence survival. More frequently studied factors-resection status, degree of tumor regression, and pathologic nodal stage after induction therapy as well as the most frequently studied factor, the treatment (in almost 75% studies)-showed no discernible impact on survival, due to conflicting results. Currently, it is impossible to identify any treatment-related predictive or prognostic factors for selecting surgery in the treatment of patients with stage IIIA/pN2 NSCLC.

Development and validation of the Neonatal Mortality Score-9 Mexico to predict mortality in critically ill neonates.

PubMed

Márquez-González, Horacio; Jiménez-Báez, María Valeria; Muñoz-Ramírez, C Mireya; Yáñez-Gutiérrez, Lucelli; Huelgas-Plaza, Ana C; Almeida-Gutiérrez, Eduardo; Villa-Romero, Antonio Rafael

2015-06-01

Prognostic scales or scores are useful for physicians who work in neonatal intensive care units. There are several validated neonatal scores but they are mostly applicable to low birth weight infants. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a mortality prognostic score in newborn infants, that would include new prognostic outcome measures. The study was conducted in a mother and child hospital in the city of Mexico, part of the Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (Mexican Institute of Social Security). In the first phase of the study, a nested case-control study was designed (newborn infants admitted on the basis of severity criteria during the first day of life), in which a scale was identified and developed with gradual parameters of cumulative score consisting of nine independent outcome measures to predict death, as follows: weight, metabolic acidemia, lactate, PaO2/FiO2, p(A-a) O2, A/a, platelets and serum glucose.Validation was performed in a matched prospective cohort, using 7-day mortality as an endpoint. The initial cohort consisted of 424 newborn infants. Twenty-two cases and 132 controls were selected; and 9 outcome measures were identified, making up the scale named neonatal mortality score-9 Mexico. The validation cohort consisted of 227 newborn infants. Forty-four (19%) deaths were recorded, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92. With a score between 16 and 18, an 85 (11-102) hazard ratio, 99% specificity, 71% positive predictive value and 90% negative predictive value were reported. Conclusions .The proposed scale is a reliable tool to predict severity in newborn infants.

Validation and Development of a Modified Breast Graded Prognostic Assessment As a Tool for Survival in Patients With Breast Cancer and Brain Metastases.

PubMed

Subbiah, Ishwaria M; Lei, Xiudong; Weinberg, Jeffrey S; Sulman, Erik P; Chavez-MacGregor, Mariana; Tripathy, Debu; Gupta, Rohan; Varma, Ankur; Chouhan, Jay; Guevarra, Richard P; Valero, Vicente; Gilbert, Mark R; Gonzalez-Angulo, Ana M

2015-07-10

Several indices have been developed to predict overall survival (OS) in patients with breast cancer with brain metastases, including the breast graded prognostic assessment (breast-GPA), comprising age, tumor subtype, and Karnofsky performance score. However, number of brain metastases-a highly relevant clinical variable-is less often incorporated into the final model. We sought to validate the existing breast-GPA in an independent larger cohort and refine it integrating number of brain metastases. Data were retrospectively gathered from a prospectively maintained institutional database. Patients with newly diagnosed brain metastases from 1996 to 2013 were identified. After validating the breast-GPA, multivariable Cox regression and recursive partitioning analysis led to the development of the modified breast-GPA. The performances of the breast-GPA and modified breast-GPA were compared using the concordance index. In our cohort of 1,552 patients, the breast-GPA was validated as a prognostic tool for OS (P < .001). In multivariable analysis of the breast-GPA and number of brain metastases (> three v ≤ three), both were independent predictors of OS. We therefore developed the modified breast-GPA integrating a fourth clinical parameter. Recursive partitioning analysis reinforced the prognostic significance of these four factors. Concordance indices were 0.78 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.80) and 0.84 (95% CI, 0.83 to 0.85) for the breast-GPA and modified breast-GPA, respectively (P < .001). The modified breast-GPA incorporates four simple clinical parameters of high prognostic significance. This index has an immediate role in the clinic as a formative part of the clinician's discussion of prognosis and direction of care and as a potential patient selection tool for clinical trials. © 2015 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

Distinguishing prognostic and predictive biomarkers: An information theoretic approach.

PubMed

Sechidis, Konstantinos; Papangelou, Konstantinos; Metcalfe, Paul D; Svensson, David; Weatherall, James; Brown, Gavin

2018-05-02

The identification of biomarkers to support decision-making is central to personalised medicine, in both clinical and research scenarios. The challenge can be seen in two halves: identifying predictive markers, which guide the development/use of tailored therapies; and identifying prognostic markers, which guide other aspects of care and clinical trial planning, i.e. prognostic markers can be considered as covariates for stratification. Mistakenly assuming a biomarker to be predictive, when it is in fact largely prognostic (and vice-versa) is highly undesirable, and can result in financial, ethical and personal consequences. We present a framework for data-driven ranking of biomarkers on their prognostic/predictive strength, using a novel information theoretic method. This approach provides a natural algebra to discuss and quantify the individual predictive and prognostic strength, in a self-consistent mathematical framework. Our contribution is a novel procedure, INFO+, which naturally distinguishes the prognostic vs predictive role of each biomarker and handles higher order interactions. In a comprehensive empirical evaluation INFO+ outperforms more complex methods, most notably when noise factors dominate, and biomarkers are likely to be falsely identified as predictive, when in fact they are just strongly prognostic. Furthermore, we show that our methods can be 1-3 orders of magnitude faster than competitors, making it useful for biomarker discovery in 'big data' scenarios. Finally, we apply our methods to identify predictive biomarkers on two real clinical trials, and introduce a new graphical representation that provides greater insight into the prognostic and predictive strength of each biomarker. R implementations of the suggested methods are available at https://github.com/sechidis. konstantinos.sechidis@manchester.ac.uk. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Prognostic significance of IDH 1 mutation in patients with glioblastoma multiforme.

PubMed

Khan, Inamullah; Waqas, Muhammad; Shamim, Muhammad Shahzad

2017-05-01

Focus of brain tumour research is shifting towards tumour genesis and genetics, and possible development of individualized treatment plans. Genetic analysis shows recurrent mutation in isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH1) gene in most Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) cells. In this review we evaluated the prognostic significance of IDH 1 mutation on the basis of published evidence. Multiple retrospective clinical analyses correlate the presence of IDH1 mutation in GBM with good prognostic outcomes compared to wild-type IDH1. A systematic review reported similar results. Based on the review of current literature IDH1 mutation is an independent factor for longer overall survival (OS) and progression free survival (PFS) in GBM patients when compared to wild-type IDH1. The prognostic significance opens up new avenues for treatment.

Associations Between Serum Bone Biomarkers in Early Breast Cancer and Development of Bone Metastasis: Results From the AZURE (BIG01/04) Trial.

PubMed

Brown, Janet; Rathbone, Emma; Hinsley, Samantha; Gregory, Walter; Gossiel, Fatma; Marshall, Helen; Burkinshaw, Roger; Shulver, Helen; Thandar, Hasina; Bertelli, Gianfilippo; Maccon, Keane; Bowman, Angela; Hanby, Andrew; Bell, Richard; Cameron, David; Coleman, Robert

2018-02-07

Adjuvant therapies can prevent/delay bone metastasis development in breast cancer. We investigated whether serum bone turnover markers in early disease have clinical utility in identifying patients with a high risk of developing bone metastasis. Markers of bone formation (N-terminal propeptide of type-1 collagen [P1NP]) and bone resorption (C-telopeptide of type-1 collagen [CTX], pyridinoline cross-linked carboxy-terminal telopeptide of type-1 collagen [1-CTP]) were measured in baseline (pretreatment blood samples from 872 patients from a large randomized trial of adjuvant zoledronic acid (AZURE-ISRCTN79831382) in early breast cancer. Cox proportional hazards regression and cumulative incidence functions (adjusted for factors having a statistically significant effect on outcome) were used to investigate prognostic and predictive associations between recurrence events, bone marker levels, and clinical variables. All statistical tests were two-sided. When considered as continuous variables (log transformed), P1NP, CTX, and 1-CTP were each prognostic for future bone recurrence at any time (P = .006, P = .009, P = .008, respectively). Harrell's c-indices were a P1NP of 0.57 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.51 to 0.63), CTX of 0.57 (95% CI = 0.51 to 0.62), and 1-CTP of 0.57 (95% CI = 0.52 to 0.63). In categorical analyses based on the normal range, high baseline P1NP (>70 ng/mL) and CTX (>0.299 ng/mL), but not 1-CTP (>4.2 ng/mL), were also prognostic for future bone recurrence (P = .03, P = .03, P = .10, respectively). None of the markers were prognostic for overall distant recurrence; that is, they were bone metastasis specific, and none of the markers were predictive of treatment benefit from zoledronic acid. Serum P1NP, CTX, and 1-CTP are clinically useful, easily measured markers that show good prognostic ability (though low-to-moderate discrimination) for bone-specific recurrence and are worthy of further study. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press.

Prognostic indicators of 6-month mortality in elderly people with advanced dementia: A systematic review

PubMed Central

Brown, Meghan A; Sampson, Elizabeth L; Jones, Louise

2013-01-01

Background: For end-of-life dementia patients, palliative care offers a better quality of life than continued aggressive or burdensome medical interventions. To provide the best care options to dementia sufferers, validated, reliable, sensitive, and accurate prognostic tools to identify end-of-life dementia stages are necessary. Aim: To identify accurate prognosticators of mortality in elderly advanced dementia patients consistently reported in the literature. Design: Systematic literature review. Data sources: PubMed, Embase, and PsycINFO databases were searched up to September 2012. Reference lists of included studies were also searched. Inclusion criteria were studies measuring factors specifically related to 6-month outcome in patients diagnosed with dementia in any residential or health-care setting. Results: Seven studies met the inclusion criteria, five of which were set in the United States and two in Israel. Methodology and prognostic outcomes varied greatly between the studies. All but one study found that Functional Assessment Staging phase 7c, currently widely used to assess hospice admission eligibility in the United States, was not a reliable predictor of 6-month mortality. The most common prognostic variables identified related to nutrition/nourishment, or eating habits, followed by increased risk on dementia severity scales and comorbidities. Conclusions: Although the majority of studies agreed that the Functional Assessment Staging 7c criterion was not a reliable predictor of 6-month mortality, we found a lack of prognosticator concordance across the literature. Further studies are essential to identify reliable, sensitive, and specific prognosticators, which can be applied to the clinical setting and allow increased availability of palliative care to dementia patients. PMID:23175514

Prognostic scoring systems for myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) in a population-based setting: a report from the Swedish MDS register.

PubMed

Moreno Berggren, Daniel; Folkvaljon, Yasin; Engvall, Marie; Sundberg, Johan; Lambe, Mats; Antunovic, Petar; Garelius, Hege; Lorenz, Fryderyk; Nilsson, Lars; Rasmussen, Bengt; Lehmann, Sören; Hellström-Lindberg, Eva; Jädersten, Martin; Ejerblad, Elisabeth

2018-06-01

The myelodysplastic syndromes (MDS) have highly variable outcomes and prognostic scoring systems are important tools for risk assessment and to guide therapeutic decisions. However, few population-based studies have compared the value of the different scoring systems. With data from the nationwide Swedish population-based MDS register we validated the International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS), revised IPSS (IPSS-R) and the World Health Organization (WHO) Classification-based Prognostic Scoring System (WPSS). We also present population-based data on incidence, clinical characteristics including detailed cytogenetics and outcome from the register. The study encompassed 1329 patients reported to the register between 2009 and 2013, 14% of these had therapy-related MDS (t-MDS). Based on the MDS register, the yearly crude incidence of MDS in Sweden was 2·9 per 100 000 inhabitants. IPSS-R had a significantly better prognostic power than IPSS (P < 0·001). There was a trend for better prognostic power of IPSS-R compared to WPSS (P = 0·05) and for WPSS compared to IPSS (P = 0·07). IPSS-R was superior to both IPSS and WPSS for patients aged ≤70 years. Patients with t-MDS had a worse outcome compared to de novo MDS (d-MDS), however, the validity of the prognostic scoring systems was comparable for d-MDS and t-MDS. In conclusion, population-based studies are important to validate prognostic scores in a 'real-world' setting. In our nationwide cohort, the IPSS-R showed the best predictive power. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

lncRNA co-expression network model for the prognostic analysis of acute myeloid leukemia

PubMed Central

Pan, Jia-Qi; Zhang, Yan-Qing; Wang, Jing-Hua; Xu, Ping; Wang, Wei

2017-01-01

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a highly heterogeneous hematologic malignancy with great variability of prognostic behaviors. Previous studies have reported that long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) play an important role in AML and may thus be used as potential prognostic biomarkers. However, thus use of lncRNAs as prognostic biomarkers in AML and their detailed mechanisms of action in this disease have not yet been well characterized. For this purpose, in the present study, the expression levels of lncRNAs and mRNAs were calculated using the RNA-seq V2 data for AML, following which a lncRNA-lncRNA co-expression network (LLCN) was constructed. This revealed a total of 8 AML prognosis-related lncRNA modules were identified, which displayed a significant correlation with patient survival (p≤0.05). Subsequently, a prognosis-related lncRNA module pathway network was constructed to interpret the functional mechanism of the prognostic modules in AML. The results indicated that these prognostic modules were involved in the AML pathway, chemokine signaling pathway and WNT signaling pathway, all of which play important roles in AML. Furthermore, the investigation of lncRNAs in these prognostic modules suggested that an lncRNA (ZNF571-AS1) may be involved in AML via the Janus kinase (JAK)/signal transducer and activator of transcription (STAT) signaling pathway by regulating KIT and STAT5. The results of the present study not only provide potential lncRNA modules as prognostic biomarkers, but also provide further insight into the molecular mechanisms of action of lncRNAs. PMID:28204819

Design and Validation of a Straight-Copy Typewriting Prognostic Test Using Kinesthetic Sensitivity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Olson, Norma Jean

1979-01-01

Describes the development and application of a kinesthetic sensitivity test to determine whether it is a valid and reliable measure of straight-copy typing speed and accuracy. The author states that this kinesthetic sensitivity instrument may be used as a prognostic aptitude test and recommends administration methods. (MF)

Tpl-2/Cot and COX-2 in breast cancer.

PubMed

Krcova, Zuzana; Ehrmann, Jiri; Krejci, Veronika; Eliopoulos, Aris; Kolar, Zdenek

2008-06-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women worldwide and although mortality (129,000/year) stagnates, incidence (370,000/year) is increasing. In addition to histological type, grade, stage, hormonal and c-erbB2 status there is therefore a strong need for new and reliable prognostic and predictive factors. This minireview focuses on two potential prognostic and predictive candidates Tpl2/Cot and COX-2 and summarise information about them. Tumor progression locus 2 (Tpl2/Cot) is a serine/threonine protein kinase belonging to the family of MAP3 kinases. Activated Tpl2/Cot leads to induction of ERK1/2, JNK, NF-kappaB and p38MAPK pathways. The first study on Tpl2/Cot mRNA in breast cancer showed its increase in 40 % of cases of breast cancer but no available data exist on protein expression. Cyclo-oxygenase 2 (COX-2) is inducible by growth and inflammatory factors and contributes to the development of various tumours. Expression of COX-2 in breast cancer varied from 5-100 % in reviewed papers with significantly higher values in poorly differentiated tumours. Tpl2/Cot and COX-2 have their importance in different intracellular pathways and some of these are involved in cancer development. Briefly, the results from recent studies suggest that Tpl2/Cot and COX-2 could be prognostic factors in breast cancer.

A prognostic index for natural killer cell lymphoma after non-anthracycline-based treatment: a multicentre, retrospective analysis.

PubMed

Kim, Seok Jin; Yoon, Dok Hyun; Jaccard, Arnaud; Chng, Wee Joo; Lim, Soon Thye; Hong, Huangming; Park, Yong; Chang, Kian Meng; Maeda, Yoshinobu; Ishida, Fumihiro; Shin, Dong-Yeop; Kim, Jin Seok; Jeong, Seong Hyun; Yang, Deok-Hwan; Jo, Jae-Cheol; Lee, Gyeong-Won; Choi, Chul Won; Lee, Won-Sik; Chen, Tsai-Yun; Kim, Kiyeun; Jung, Sin-Ho; Murayama, Tohru; Oki, Yasuhiro; Advani, Ranjana; d'Amore, Francesco; Schmitz, Norbert; Suh, Cheolwon; Suzuki, Ritsuro; Kwong, Yok Lam; Lin, Tong-Yu; Kim, Won Seog

2016-03-01

The clinical outcome of extranodal natural killer T-cell lymphoma (ENKTL) has improved substantially as a result of new treatment strategies with non-anthracycline-based chemotherapies and upfront use of concurrent chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy. A new prognostic model based on the outcomes obtained with these contemporary treatments was warranted. We did a retrospective study of patients with newly diagnosed ENKTL without any previous treatment history for the disease who were given non-anthracycline-based chemotherapies with or without upfront concurrent chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy with curative intent. A prognostic model to predict overall survival and progression-free survival on the basis of pretreatment clinical and laboratory characteristics was developed by filling a multivariable model on the basis of the dataset with complete data for the selected risk factors for an unbiased prediction model. The final model was applied to the patients who had complete data for the selected risk factors. We did a validation analysis of the prognostic model in an independent cohort. We did multivariate analyses of 527 patients who were included from 38 hospitals in 11 countries in the training cohort. Analyses showed that age greater than 60 years, stage III or IV disease, distant lymph-node involvement, and non-nasal type disease were significantly associated with overall survival and progression-free survival. We used these data as the basis for the prognostic index of natural killer lymphoma (PINK), in which patients are stratified into low-risk (no risk factors), intermediate-risk (one risk factor), or high-risk (two or more risk factors) groups, which were associated with 3-year overall survival of 81% (95% CI 75-86), 62% (55-70), and 25% (20-34), respectively. In the 328 patients with data for Epstein-Barr virus DNA, a detectable viral DNA titre was an independent prognostic factor for overall survival. When these data were added to PINK as the basis for another prognostic index (PINK-E)-which had similar low-risk (zero or one risk factor), intermediate-risk (two risk factors), and high-risk (three or more risk factors) categories-significant associations with overall survival were noted (81% [95% CI 75-87%], 55% (44-66), and 28% (18-40%), respectively). These results were validated and confirmed in an independent cohort, although the PINK-E model was only significantly associated with the high-risk group compared with the low-risk group. PINK and PINK-E are new prognostic models that can be used to develop risk-adapted treatment approaches for patients with ENKTL being treated in the contemporary era of non-anthracycline-based therapy. Samsung Biomedical Research Institute. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

An internally validated new clinical and inflammation-based prognostic score for patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma treated with sorafenib.

PubMed

Diaz-Beveridge, R; Bruixola, G; Lorente, D; Caballero, J; Rodrigo, E; Segura, Á; Akhoundova, D; Giménez, A; Aparicio, J

2018-03-01

Sorafenib is a standard treatment for patients (pts) with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (aHCC), although the clinical benefit is heterogeneous between different pts groups. Among novel prognostic factors, a low baseline neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (bNLR) and early-onset diarrhoea have been linked with a better prognosis. To identify prognostic factors in pts with aHCC treated with 1st-line sorafenib and to develop a new prognostic score to guide management. Retrospective review of 145 pts bNLR, overall toxicity, early toxicity rates and overall survival (OS) were assessed. Univariate and multivariate analysis of prognostic factors for OS was performed. The prognostic score was calculated from the coefficients found in the Cox analysis. ROC curves and pseudoR2 index were used for internal validation. Discrimination ability and calibration were tested by Harrel's c-index (HCI) and Akaike criteria (AIC). The optimal bNLR cut-off for the prediction of OS was 4 (AUC 0.62). Independent prognostic factors in multivariate analysis for OS were performance status (PS) (p < .0001), Child-Pugh (C-P) score (p = 0.005), early-onset diarrhoea (p = 0.006) and BNLR (0.011). The prognostic score based on these four variables was found efficient (HCI = 0.659; AIC = 1.180). Four risk groups for OS could be identified: a very low-risk (median OS = 48.6 months), a low-risk (median OS = 11.6 months), an intermediate-risk (median OS = 8.3 months) and a high-risk group (median OS = 4.4 months). PS and C-P score were the main prognostic factors for OS, followed by early-onset diarrhoea and bNLR. We identified four risk groups for OS depending on these parameters. This prognostic model could be useful for patient stratification, but an external validation is needed.

A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer.

PubMed

Pan, Qun-Xiong; Su, Zi-Jian; Zhang, Jian-Hua; Wang, Chong-Ren; Ke, Shao-Ying

2015-01-01

People's Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors. To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection. The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and prognostic index (PI) were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage. In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001), serum albumin (P<0.001), GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002), NLR (P<0.001), PI (P<0.001), PNI (P<0.001), and TNM stage (P<0.001) were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024), NLR (P=0.012), PI (P=0.001), TNM stage (P<0.001), and degree of differentiation (P=0.002) were independent predictors of gastric cancer survival. GPS and TNM stage had a comparable prognostic value and higher linear trend chi-square value, likelihood ratio chi-square value, and larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as compared to other inflammation-based prognostic scores. The present study indicates that preoperative GPS and TNM stage are robust predictors of gastric cancer survival as compared to NLR, PLR, PI, and PNI in patients undergoing tumor resection.

A comparison of the prognostic value of preoperative inflammation-based scores and TNM stage in patients with gastric cancer

PubMed Central

Pan, Qun-Xiong; Su, Zi-Jian; Zhang, Jian-Hua; Wang, Chong-Ren; Ke, Shao-Ying

2015-01-01

Background People’s Republic of China is one of the countries with the highest incidence of gastric cancer, accounting for 45% of all new gastric cancer cases in the world. Therefore, strong prognostic markers are critical for the diagnosis and survival of Chinese patients suffering from gastric cancer. Recent studies have begun to unravel the mechanisms linking the host inflammatory response to tumor growth, invasion and metastasis in gastric cancers. Based on this relationship between inflammation and cancer progression, several inflammation-based scores have been demonstrated to have prognostic value in many types of malignant solid tumors. Objective To compare the prognostic value of inflammation-based prognostic scores and tumor node metastasis (TNM) stage in patients undergoing gastric cancer resection. Methods The inflammation-based prognostic scores were calculated for 207 patients with gastric cancer who underwent surgery. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), and prognostic index (PI) were analyzed. Linear trend chi-square test, likelihood ratio chi-square test, and receiver operating characteristic were performed to compare the prognostic value of the selected scores and TNM stage. Results In univariate analysis, preoperative serum C-reactive protein (P<0.001), serum albumin (P<0.001), GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002), NLR (P<0.001), PI (P<0.001), PNI (P<0.001), and TNM stage (P<0.001) were significantly associated with both overall survival and disease-free survival of patients with gastric cancer. In multivariate analysis, GPS (P=0.024), NLR (P=0.012), PI (P=0.001), TNM stage (P<0.001), and degree of differentiation (P=0.002) were independent predictors of gastric cancer survival. GPS and TNM stage had a comparable prognostic value and higher linear trend chi-square value, likelihood ratio chi-square value, and larger area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as compared to other inflammation-based prognostic scores. Conclusion The present study indicates that preoperative GPS and TNM stage are robust predictors of gastric cancer survival as compared to NLR, PLR, PI, and PNI in patients undergoing tumor resection. PMID:26124667

Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Huang, Jia-Jia; Li, Ya-Jun; Xia, Yi; Wang, Yu; Wei, Wen-Xiao; Zhu, Ying-Jie; Lin, Tong-Yu; Huang, Hui-Qiang; Jiang, Wen-Qi; Li, Zhi-Ming

2013-05-03

Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL.

Predicting response to physiotherapy treatment for musculoskeletal shoulder pain: a systematic review

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background People suffering from musculoskeletal shoulder pain are frequently referred to physiotherapy. Physiotherapy generally involves a multimodal approach to management that may include; exercise, manual therapy and techniques to reduce pain. At present it is not possible to predict which patients will respond positively to physiotherapy treatment. The purpose of this systematic review was to identify which prognostic factors are associated with the outcome of physiotherapy in the management of musculoskeletal shoulder pain. Methods A comprehensive search was undertaken of Ovid Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL and AMED (from inception to January 2013). Prospective studies of participants with shoulder pain receiving physiotherapy which investigated the association between baseline prognostic factors and change in pain and function over time were included. Study selection, data extraction and appraisal of study quality were undertaken by two independent assessors. Quality criteria were selected from previously published guidelines to form a checklist of 24 items. The study protocol was prospectively registered onto the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews. Results A total of 5023 titles were retrieved and screened for eligibility, 154 articles were assessed as full text and 16 met the inclusion criteria: 11 cohort studies, 3 randomised controlled trials and 2 controlled trials. Results were presented for the 9 studies meeting 13 or more of the 24 quality criteria. Clinical and statistical heterogeneity resulted in qualitative synthesis rather than meta-analysis. Three studies demonstrated that high functional disability at baseline was associated with poor functional outcome (p ≤ 0.05). Four studies demonstrated a significant association (p ≤ 0.05) between longer duration of shoulder pain and poorer outcome. Three studies, demonstrated a significant association (p ≤ 0.05) between increasing age and poorer function; three studies demonstrated no association (p > 0.05). Conclusion Associations between prognostic factors and outcome were often inconsistent between studies. This may be due to clinical heterogeneity or type II errors. Only two baseline prognostic factors demonstrated a consistent association with outcome in two or more studies; duration of shoulder pain and baseline function. Prior to developing a predictive model for the outcome of physiotherapy treatment for shoulder pain, a large adequately powered prospective cohort study is required in which a broad range of prognostic factors are incorporated. PMID:23834747

Long Non-Coding RNAs As Potential Novel Prognostic Biomarkers in Colorectal Cancer

PubMed Central

Saus, Ester; Brunet-Vega, Anna; Iraola-Guzmán, Susana; Pegueroles, Cinta; Gabaldón, Toni; Pericay, Carles

2016-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the fourth most common cause of death worldwide. Surgery is usually the first line of treatment for patients with CRC but many tumors with similar histopathological features show significantly different clinical outcomes. The discovery of robust prognostic biomarkers in patients with CRC is imperative to achieve more effective treatment strategies and improve patient's care. Recent progress in next generation sequencing methods and transcriptome analysis has revealed that a much larger part of the genome is transcribed into RNA than previously assumed. Collectively referred to as non-coding RNAs (ncRNAs), some of these RNA molecules such as microRNAs (miRNAs) and long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) have been shown to be altered and to play critical roles in tumor biology. This discovery leads to exciting possibilities for personalized cancer diagnosis, and therapy. Many lncRNAs are tissue and cancer-type specific and have already revealed to be useful as prognostic markers. In this review, we focus on recent findings concerning aberrant expression of lncRNAs in CRC tumors and emphasize their prognostic potential in CRC. Further studies focused on the mechanisms of action of lncRNAs will contribute to the development of novel biomarkers for diagnosis and disease progression. PMID:27148353

Development and External Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Metastatic Uveal Melanoma

PubMed Central

Valpione, Sara; Moser, Justin C.; Parrozzani, Raffaele; Bazzi, Marco; Mansfield, Aaron S.; Mocellin, Simone; Pigozzo, Jacopo; Midena, Edoardo; Markovic, Svetomir N.; Aliberti, Camillo; Campana, Luca G.; Chiarion-Sileni, Vanna

2015-01-01

Background Approximately 50% of patients with uveal melanoma (UM) will develop metastatic disease, usually involving the liver. The outcome of metastatic UM (mUM) is generally poor and no standard therapy has been established. Additionally, clinicians lack a validated prognostic tool to evaluate these patients. The aim of this work was to develop a reliable prognostic nomogram for clinicians. Patients and Methods Two cohorts of mUM patients, from Veneto Oncology Institute (IOV) (N=152) and Mayo Clinic (MC) (N=102), were analyzed to develop and externally validate, a prognostic nomogram. Results The median survival of mUM was 17.2 months in the IOV cohort and 19.7 in the MC cohort. Percentage of liver involvement (HR 1.6), elevated levels of serum LDH (HR 1.6), and a WHO performance status=1 (HR 1.5) or 2–3 (HR 4.6) were associated with worse prognosis. Longer disease-free interval from diagnosis of UM to that of mUM conferred a survival advantage (HR 0.9). The nomogram had a concordance probability of 0.75 (SE .006) in the development dataset (IOV), and 0.80 (SE .009) in the external validation (MC). Nomogram predictions were well calibrated. Conclusions The nomogram, which includes percentage of liver involvement, LDH levels, WHO performance status and disease free-interval accurately predicts the prognosis of mUM and could be useful for decision-making and risk stratification for clinical trials. PMID:25780931

[Upper gastrointestinal bleeding: usefulness of prognostic scores].

PubMed

Badel, S; Dorta, G; Carron, P-N

2011-08-24

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a potentially serious event, usually requiring urgent endoscopic treatment. Better stratification of the risk of complication or death could optimize management and improve patient outcomes, while ensuring adequate resource allocation. Several prognostic scores have been developed, in order to identify high risk patients, who require immediate treatment, and patients at low risk for whom endoscopy may be delayed. An ideal prognostic score should be accurate, simple, reproducible, and prospectively validated in different populations. Published scores meet these requirements only partially, and thus can only be used as part of an integrative diagnostic and therapeutic process.

Prognostic factors of methotrexate-associated lymphoproliferative disorders associated with rheumatoid arthritis and plausible application of biological agents.

PubMed

Katsuyama, Takayuki; Sada, Ken-Ei; Yan, Minglu; Zeggar, Sonia; Hiramatsu, Sumie; Miyawaki, Yoshia; Ohashi, Keiji; Morishita, Michiko; Watanabe, Haruki; Katsuyama, Eri; Takano-Narazaki, Mariko; Toyota-Tatebe, Noriko; Sunahori-Watanabe, Katsue; Kawabata, Tomoko; Miyake, Kohei; Kiguchi, Toru; Wada, Jun

2017-09-01

To determine prognostic factors of methotrexate-associated lymphoproliferative disorder (MTX-LPD) and evaluate the efficacy and safety of biological therapy in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) complicated with MTX-LPD. Thirty RA patients who developed MTX-LPD were investigated in this study. We compared the clinical and laboratory parameters of patients who achieved regression of LPD by MTX withdrawal with those who required chemotherapy and evaluated the clinical course of RA after LPD development. Twenty-three patients (76.7%) achieved regression of LPD by MTX withdrawal. Chemotherapy-free patients had a tendency of shorter RA duration (13.1 vs. 22.0 years, p = 0.108) and higher doses of MTX at LPD diagnosis (8.0 vs. 5.3 mg/w, p = 0.067) than patients who required chemotherapy. A significantly higher positive rate of peripheral blood Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-DNA was observed in the chemotherapy-free group (9/9 vs. 0/3, p = 0.0002). Of 15 patients that received biological agents after LPD development, 14 patients (93.3%) demonstrated an improved disease activity of RA and persistent remission of LPD, whereas only one patient experienced relapse of LPD during tocilizumab therapy. Peripheral blood EBV-DNA positivity is a potential prognostic marker of better outcome in MTX-LPD. Biological agents could be an option for the treatment of RA patients with MTX-LPD.

A data-driven algorithm integrating clinical and laboratory features for the diagnosis and prognosis of necrotizing enterocolitis.

PubMed

Ji, Jun; Ling, Xuefeng B; Zhao, Yingzhen; Hu, Zhongkai; Zheng, Xiaolin; Xu, Zhening; Wen, Qiaojun; Kastenberg, Zachary J; Li, Ping; Abdullah, Fizan; Brandt, Mary L; Ehrenkranz, Richard A; Harris, Mary Catherine; Lee, Timothy C; Simpson, B Joyce; Bowers, Corinna; Moss, R Lawrence; Sylvester, Karl G

2014-01-01

Necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) is a major source of neonatal morbidity and mortality. Since there is no specific diagnostic test or risk of progression model available for NEC, the diagnosis and outcome prediction of NEC is made on clinical grounds. The objective in this study was to develop and validate new NEC scoring systems for automated staging and prognostic forecasting. A six-center consortium of university based pediatric teaching hospitals prospectively collected data on infants under suspicion of having NEC over a 7-year period. A database comprised of 520 infants was utilized to develop the NEC diagnostic and prognostic models by dividing the entire dataset into training and testing cohorts of demographically matched subjects. Developed on the training cohort and validated on the blind testing cohort, our multivariate analyses led to NEC scoring metrics integrating clinical data. Machine learning using clinical and laboratory results at the time of clinical presentation led to two nec models: (1) an automated diagnostic classification scheme; (2) a dynamic prognostic method for risk-stratifying patients into low, intermediate and high NEC scores to determine the risk for disease progression. We submit that dynamic risk stratification of infants with NEC will assist clinicians in determining the need for additional diagnostic testing and guide potential therapies in a dynamic manner. http://translationalmedicine.stanford.edu/cgi-bin/NEC/index.pl and smartphone application upon request.

A systematic review finds methodological improvements necessary for prognostic models in determining traumatic brain injury outcomes.

PubMed

Mushkudiani, Nino A; Hukkelhoven, Chantal W P M; Hernández, Adrián V; Murray, Gordon D; Choi, Sung C; Maas, Andrew I R; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2008-04-01

To describe the modeling techniques used for early prediction of outcome in traumatic brain injury (TBI) and to identify aspects for potential improvements. We reviewed key methodological aspects of studies published between 1970 and 2005 that proposed a prognostic model for the Glasgow Outcome Scale of TBI based on admission data. We included 31 papers. Twenty-four were single-center studies, and 22 reported on fewer than 500 patients. The median of the number of initially considered predictors was eight, and on average five of these were selected for the prognostic model, generally including age, Glasgow Coma Score (or only motor score), and pupillary reactivity. The most common statistical technique was logistic regression with stepwise selection of predictors. Model performance was often quantified by accuracy rate rather than by more appropriate measures such as the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve. Model validity was addressed in 15 studies, but mostly used a simple split-sample approach, and external validation was performed in only four studies. Although most models agree on the three most important predictors, many were developed on small sample sizes within single centers and hence lack generalizability. Modeling strategies have to be improved, and include external validation.

Sub-classification of Advanced-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Cohort Study Including 612 Patients Treated with Sorafenib.

PubMed

Yoo, Jeong-Ju; Chung, Goh Eun; Lee, Jeong-Hoon; Nam, Joon Yeul; Chang, Young; Lee, Jeong Min; Lee, Dong Ho; Kim, Hwi Young; Cho, Eun Ju; Yu, Su Jong; Kim, Yoon Jun; Yoon, Jung-Hwan

2018-04-01

Advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is associated with various clinical conditions including major vessel invasion, metastasis, and poor performance status. The aim of this study was to establish a prognostic scoring system and to propose a sub-classification of the Barcelona-Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage C. This retrospective study included consecutive patientswho received sorafenib for BCLC stage C HCC at a single tertiary hospital in Korea. A Cox proportional hazard model was used to develop a scoring system, and internal validationwas performed by a 5-fold cross-validation. The performance of the model in predicting risk was assessed by the area under the curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. A total of 612 BCLC stage C HCC patients were sub- classified into strata depending on their performance status. Five independent prognostic factors (Child-Pugh score, α-fetoprotein, tumor type, extrahepatic metastasis, and portal vein invasion) were identified and used in the prognostic scoring system. This scoring system showed good discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.734 to 0.818) and calibration functions (both p < 0.05 by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test at 1 month and 12 months, respectively). The differences in survival among the different risk groups classified by the total score were significant (p < 0.001 by the log-rank test in both the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group 0 and 1 strata). The heterogeneity of patientswith BCLC stage C HCC requires sub-classification of advanced HCC. A prognostic scoring system with five independent factors is useful in predicting the survival of patients with BCLC stage C HCC.

Prognostic factors for survival after salvage total laryngectomy following radiotherapy or chemoradiation failure: a 10-year retrospective longitudinal study in eastern Denmark.

PubMed

Wulff, N B; Andersen, E; Kristensen, C A; Sørensen, C H; Charabi, B; Homøe, P

2017-04-01

The primary aims were to determine the rates of and prognostic factors for overall survival, disease-specific survival and disease-free survival following salvage total laryngectomy. Retrospective longitudinal study. Tertiary medical centres. A total of 142 patients in eastern Denmark undergoing salvage total laryngectomy for squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx or hypopharynx. 5-year overall survival, 5-year disease-specific survival, 5-year disease-free survival and prognostic factors for these outcomes. 5-year overall survival, disease-specific survival and disease-free survival were 37.7%, 54.9% and 55.3%, respectively. N classification at primary diagnosis, lymph node excision and postoperative complications within 1 year after salvage total laryngectomy were prognostic factors for shorter overall survival, disease-specific survival and disease-free survival. Residual tumour/recurrence was negatively associated with overall survival, close or involved resection margins with disease-specific survival, and second primary cancer was associated with longer disease-specific survival and disease-free survival. Nine per cent of all patients had residual tumour and 33.8% developed a recurrence. Our overall survival, disease-specific survival and disease-free survival findings are in accordance with previous studies. With the purpose of identifying recurrent tumour, we suggest extra attention being given to patients with higher N classification and need for lymph node excision during salvage total laryngectomy along with use of frozen sections. The high number of patients with recurrence within 1 year after salvage total laryngectomy occurred although thorough and regular follow-up visits were performed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Development of a prognostic tool for the occurrence of feather pecking and cannibalism in laying hens.

PubMed

Kaesberg, A-K U; Louton, H; Erhard, M; Schmidt, P; Zepp, M; Helmer, F; Schwarzer, A

2018-03-01

In July 2015, a German voluntary decree stipulated that the keeping of beak-trimmed laying hens after the 1st of January 2017 will no longer be permitted. Simultaneously, the present project was initiated to validate a newly developed prognostic tool for laying hen farmers to forecast, at the beginning of a laying period, the probability of future problems with feather pecking and cannibalism in their flock. For this purpose, we used a computer-based prognostic tool in form of a questionnaire that was easy and quick to complete and facilitated comparisons of different flocks. It contained various possible risk factors that were classified into 3 score categories (1 = "no need for action," 2 = "intermediate need for action," 3 = "instant need for action"). For the validation of this tool, 43 flocks of 41 farms were examined twice, at the beginning of the laying period (around the 20th wk of life) and around the 67th wk of life. At both visits, the designated investigators filled out the questionnaire and assessed the plumage condition and the skin lesions (as indicators of occurrence of feather pecking and cannibalism) of 50 laying hens of each flock. The average prognostic score of the first visit was compared with the existence of feather pecking and cannibalism in each flock at the end of the laying period. The results showed that the prognostic score was negatively correlated with the plumage score (r = -0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI]: [-0.56; -0.02]) and positively correlated with the skin lesion score (r = 0.38; 95% CI: [0.09; 0.61]). These relationships demonstrate that a better prognostic score was associated with a better plumage and skin lesion score. After performing a principal component analysis on the single scores, we found that only 6 components are sufficient to obtain highly sensitive and specific prognostic results. Thus, the data of this analysis should be used for creating applicable software for use on laying hen farms.

C-Reactive Protein at 24 Hours after Hospital Admission may have Relevant Prognostic Accuracy in Acute Pancreatitis: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Cardoso, Filipe S; Ricardo, Leonel B; Oliveira, Ana M; Horta, David V; Papoila, Ana L; Deus, João R; Canena, Jorge

2015-01-01

C-reactive protein (CRP) and Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis (BISAP) have been used in early risk assessment of patients with AP. We evaluated prognostic accuracy of CRP at 24 hours after hospital admission (CRP24) for in-hospital mortality (IM) in AP individually and with BISAP. This retrospective cohort study included 134 patients with AP from a Portuguese hospital in 2009-2010. Prognostic accuracy assessment used area under receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Thirteen percent of patients had severe AP, 26% developed pancreatic necrosis, and 7% died during index hospital stay. AUCs for CRP24 and BISAP individually were 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65-0.95) and 0.77 (95% CI 0.59-0.95), respectively. No patients with CRP24 <60 mg/l died ( P  = 0.027; negative predictive value 100% (95% CI 92.3-100%)). AUC for BISAP plus CRP24 was 0.81 (95% CI 0.65-0.97). Change in NRI nonevents (42.4%; 95% CI, 24.9-59.9%) resulted in positive overall NRI (31.3%; 95% CI, -36.4% to 98.9%), but IDI nonevents was negligible (0.004; 95% CI, -0.007 to 0.014). CRP24 revealed good prognostic accuracy for IM in AP; its main role may be the selection of lowest risk patients.

Clinicopathological significance and prognostic role of p-STAT3 in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Liang, Chaojie; Xu, Yingchen; Ge, Hua; Li, Guangming; Wu, Jixiang

2018-01-01

Constitutive activation of STAT3 through its phosphorylation (p-STAT3) plays a key role in the development and progression of various cancers. However, the relationship between p-STAT3 expression and the clinicopathological features and prognostic value in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) remains controversial. We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the role of p-STAT3 in HCC. The PubMed, Cochrane Library, Web of Science, EMBASE, Chinese CNKI, and Chinese Wanfang databases were searched using the appropriate terms to find the relevant studies on p-STAT3 and HCC. The relationship between p-STAT3 expression and clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic value was established. Pool odds ratios (ORs) and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CIs were calculated using the STATA 14.2 software. The eight articles included in this meta-analysis comprised 752 patients. Expression of p-STAT3 was associated with incidence, age, liver cirrhosis, tumor size, vascular invasion, and TNM stage of HCC, but it was not related to gender, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), number of tumors, and tumor differentiation. Additionally, the expression of p-STAT3 was related to a poor 3- and 5-year overall survival rate and disease-free survival rate. Expression of p-STAT3 was associated with the incidence, age, liver cirrhosis, tumor size, vascular invasion, and TNM stage. Thus, p-STAT3 can be a reliable prognostic biomarker for HCC. Further high-quality studies with larger numbers of patients are needed.

Prognostic value of metabolic syndrome for the development of cardiovascular disease in a cohort of premenopausal women with systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

García-Villegas, Elsy Aidé; Lerman-Garber, Israel; Flores-Suárez, Luis Felipe; Aguilar-Salinas, Carlos; Márquez González, Horacio; Villa-Romero, Antonio Rafael

2015-04-08

Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) is a chronic autoimmune disease of unknown etiology. In lupus patients there is an increased cardiovascular risk due to an accelerated atherogenesis. Furthermore, Metabolic Syndrome (MS) adds an independent risk for developing Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) in the population. Therefore, it is important to determine whether lupus patients have an increased risk of developing Cardiovascular Disease in the presence of MS. To estimate the prognostic value of MS in the incidence of cardiovascular events in a cohort of premenopausal patients with SLE. Cohort study in 238 patients was carried out. Clinical, biochemical, dietetic and anthropometric evaluations were performed. Patients were classified according to the prevalence of MS in 2001. There was a patient follow-up from 2001 to 2008. In 2008, after studying the records, we obtained the "cases" (patients with CVD) and the "no cases" (patients without CVD). The basal prevalence of MS in the cohort was of 21.8% (ATPIII). The MS component with the highest prevalence in the population studied in 2001 was low HDL-Cholesterol (<50mg/dL) with a prevalence of 55.0%. The cumulative incidence of CVD in the group with MS was 17.3% and in the group without MS it was 7.0% with a Relative Risk (RR) of 2.48 (1.12-5.46) and p<0.05. In the multivariable analysis it was noted that MS is a predictive factor of CVD. We observed the prognostic value of MS for an increased risk of cardiovascular damage in premenopausal patients with lupus. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Application of Model-based Prognostics to a Pneumatic Valves Testbed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew; Kulkarni, Chetan S.; Gorospe, George

2014-01-01

Pneumatic-actuated valves play an important role in many applications, including cryogenic propellant loading for space operations. Model-based prognostics emphasizes the importance of a model that describes the nominal and faulty behavior of a system, and how faulty behavior progresses in time, causing the end of useful life of the system. We describe the construction of a testbed consisting of a pneumatic valve that allows the injection of faulty behavior and controllable fault progression. The valve opens discretely, and is controlled through a solenoid valve. Controllable leaks of pneumatic gas in the testbed are introduced through proportional valves, allowing the testing and validation of prognostics algorithms for pneumatic valves. A new valve prognostics approach is developed that estimates fault progression and predicts remaining life based only on valve timing measurements. Simulation experiments demonstrate and validate the approach.

Evaluating a 4-marker signature of aggressive prostate cancer using time-dependent AUC.

PubMed

Gerke, Travis A; Martin, Neil E; Ding, Zhihu; Nuttall, Elizabeth J; Stack, Edward C; Giovannucci, Edward; Lis, Rosina T; Stampfer, Meir J; Kantoff, Phillip W; Parmigiani, Giovanni; Loda, Massimo; Mucci, Lorelei A

2015-12-01

We previously identified a protein tumor signature of PTEN, SMAD4, SPP1, and CCND1 that, together with clinical features, was associated with lethal outcomes among prostate cancer patients. In the current study, we sought to validate the molecular model using time-dependent measures of AUC and predictive values for discriminating lethal from non-lethal prostate cancer. Using data from the initial study, we fit survival models for men with prostate cancer who were participants in the Physicians' Health Study (PHS; n = 276). Based on these models, we generated prognostic risk scores in an independent population, the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS; n = 347) to evaluate external validity. In each cohort, men were followed prospectively from cancer diagnosis through 2011 for development of distant metastasis or cancer mortality. We measured protein tumor expression of PTEN, SMAD4, SPP1, and CCND1 on tissue microarrays. During a median of 11.9 and 14.3 years follow-up in the PHS and HPFS cohorts, 24 and 32 men (9%) developed lethal disease. When used as a prognostic factor in a new population, addition of the four markers to clinical variables did not improve discriminatory accuracy through 15 years of follow-up. Although the four markers have been identified as key biological mediators in metastatic progression, they do not provide independent, long-term prognostic information beyond clinical factors when measured at diagnosis. This finding may underscore the broad heterogeneity in aggressive prostate tumors and highlight the challenges that may result from overfitting in discovery-based research. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A nomogram to predict prognostic values of various inflammatory biomarkers in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

PubMed Central

Liu, Jin-Shi; Huang, Ying; Yang, Xun; Feng, Ji-Feng

2015-01-01

Background: Inflammation plays an important role in cancer progression and prognosis. However, the prognostic values of inflammatory biomarkers in esophageal cancer (EC) were not established. In the present study, therefore, we initially used a nomogram to predict prognostic values of various inflammatory biomarkers in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC). Methods: A total of 326 ESCC patients were included in this retrospective study. Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and lymphocyte monocyte ratio (LMR) were analyzed in the current study. Kaplan-Meier method was used to calculate the cancer-specific survival (CSS). Cox regression analysis was also performed to evaluate the prognostic factors. A nomogram was established to predict the prognosis for CSS. Results: Patients were divided into 3 groups according to GPS (GPS 0, 1 and 2) and 2 groups according to NLR (≤3.45 and >3.45), PLR (≤166.5 and >166.5) and LMR (≤2.30 and >2.30). The 5-year CSS in patients with GPS 0, 1 and 2 were 49.2%, 26.8% and 11.9%, respectively (P<0.001). In addition, patients with NLR (>3.45), PLR (>166.5) and LMR (≤2.30) were significantly associated with decreased CSS, respectively (P<0.001). Multivariate analysis revealed that GPS (P<0.001), PLR (P=0.002) and LMR (P=0.002) were independent prognostic factors in patients with ESCC. In addition, a nomogram was established according to all significantly independent factors for CSS. The Harrell’s c-index for CSS prediction was 0.72. Conclusion: GPS, PLR and LMR were potential prognostic biomarkers in patients with ESCC. The nomogram based on CSS could be used as an accurately prognostic prediction for patients with ESCC. PMID:26328248

Prognostic factors in canine appendicular osteosarcoma – a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Appendicular osteosarcoma is the most common malignant primary canine bone tumor. When treated by amputation or tumor removal alone, median survival times (MST) do not exceed 5 months, with the majority of dogs suffering from metastatic disease. This period can be extended with adequate local intervention and adjuvant chemotherapy, which has become common practice. Several prognostic factors have been reported in many different studies, e.g. age, breed, weight, sex, neuter status, location of tumor, serum alkaline phosphatase (SALP), bone alkaline phosphatase (BALP), infection, percentage of bone length affected, histological grade or histological subtype of tumor. Most of these factors are, however, only reported as confounding factors in larger studies. Insight in truly significant prognostic factors at time of diagnosis may contribute to tailoring adjuvant therapy for individual dogs suffering from osteosarcoma. The objective of this study was to systematically review the prognostic factors that are described for canine appendicular osteosarcoma and validate their scientific importance. Results A literature review was performed on selected studies and eligible data were extracted. Meta-analyses were done for two of the three selected possible prognostic factors (SALP and location), looking at both survival time (ST) and disease free interval (DFI). The third factor (age) was studied in a qualitative manner. Both elevated SALP level and the (proximal) humerus as location of the primary tumor are significant negative prognostic factors for both ST and DFI in dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma. Increasing age was associated with shorter ST and DFI, however, was not statistically significant because information of this factor was available in only a limited number of papers. Conclusions Elevated SALP and proximal humeral location are significant negative prognosticators for canine osteosarcoma. PMID:22587466

Prognostic factors in canine appendicular osteosarcoma - a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Boerman, Ilse; Selvarajah, Gayathri T; Nielen, Mirjam; Kirpensteijn, Jolle

2012-05-15

Appendicular osteosarcoma is the most common malignant primary canine bone tumor. When treated by amputation or tumor removal alone, median survival times (MST) do not exceed 5 months, with the majority of dogs suffering from metastatic disease. This period can be extended with adequate local intervention and adjuvant chemotherapy, which has become common practice. Several prognostic factors have been reported in many different studies, e.g. age, breed, weight, sex, neuter status, location of tumor, serum alkaline phosphatase (SALP), bone alkaline phosphatase (BALP), infection, percentage of bone length affected, histological grade or histological subtype of tumor. Most of these factors are, however, only reported as confounding factors in larger studies. Insight in truly significant prognostic factors at time of diagnosis may contribute to tailoring adjuvant therapy for individual dogs suffering from osteosarcoma. The objective of this study was to systematically review the prognostic factors that are described for canine appendicular osteosarcoma and validate their scientific importance. A literature review was performed on selected studies and eligible data were extracted. Meta-analyses were done for two of the three selected possible prognostic factors (SALP and location), looking at both survival time (ST) and disease free interval (DFI). The third factor (age) was studied in a qualitative manner. Both elevated SALP level and the (proximal) humerus as location of the primary tumor are significant negative prognostic factors for both ST and DFI in dogs with appendicular osteosarcoma. Increasing age was associated with shorter ST and DFI, however, was not statistically significant because information of this factor was available in only a limited number of papers. Elevated SALP and proximal humeral location are significant negative prognosticators for canine osteosarcoma.

Prediction of Outcome after Moderate and Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: External Validation of the IMPACT and CRASH Prognostic Models

PubMed Central

Roozenbeek, Bob; Lingsma, Hester F.; Lecky, Fiona E.; Lu, Juan; Weir, James; Butcher, Isabella; McHugh, Gillian S.; Murray, Gordon D.; Perel, Pablo; Maas, Andrew I.R.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2012-01-01

Objective The International Mission on Prognosis and Analysis of Clinical Trials (IMPACT) and Corticoid Randomisation After Significant Head injury (CRASH) prognostic models predict outcome after traumatic brain injury (TBI) but have not been compared in large datasets. The objective of this is study is to validate externally and compare the IMPACT and CRASH prognostic models for prediction of outcome after moderate or severe TBI. Design External validation study. Patients We considered 5 new datasets with a total of 9036 patients, comprising three randomized trials and two observational series, containing prospectively collected individual TBI patient data. Measurements Outcomes were mortality and unfavourable outcome, based on the Glasgow Outcome Score (GOS) at six months after injury. To assess performance, we studied the discrimination of the models (by AUCs), and calibration (by comparison of the mean observed to predicted outcomes and calibration slopes). Main Results The highest discrimination was found in the TARN trauma registry (AUCs between 0.83 and 0.87), and the lowest discrimination in the Pharmos trial (AUCs between 0.65 and 0.71). Although differences in predictor effects between development and validation populations were found (calibration slopes varying between 0.58 and 1.53), the differences in discrimination were largely explained by differences in case-mix in the validation studies. Calibration was good, the fraction of observed outcomes generally agreed well with the mean predicted outcome. No meaningful differences were noted in performance between the IMPACT and CRASH models. More complex models discriminated slightly better than simpler variants. Conclusions Since both the IMPACT and the CRASH prognostic models show good generalizability to more recent data, they are valid instruments to quantify prognosis in TBI. PMID:22511138

Prognostic Impact of the 6th and 7th American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM Staging Systems on Esophageal Cancer Patients Treated With Chemoradiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nomura, Motoo, E-mail: excell@hkg.odn.ne.jp; Department of Radiation Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital; Shitara, Kohei

2012-02-01

Purpose: The new 7th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM staging system is based on pathologic data from esophageal cancers treated by surgery alone. There is no information available on evaluation of the new staging system with regard to prognosis of patients treated with chemoradiotherapy (CRT). The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic impact of the new staging system on esophageal cancer patients treated with CRT. Methods and Materials: A retrospective review was performed on 301 consecutive esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients treated with CRT. Comparisons were made of the prognostic impacts of themore » 6th and 7th staging systems and the prognostic impacts of stage and prognostic groups, which were newly defined in the 7th edition. Results: There were significant differences between Stages I and III (p < 0.01) according to both editions. However, the 7th edition poorly distinguishes the prognoses of Stages III and IV (p = 0.36 by multivariate analysis) in comparison to the 6th edition (p = 0.08 by multivariate analysis), although these differences were not significant. For all patients, T, M, and gender were independent prognostic factors by multivariate analysis (p < 0.05). For the Stage I and II prognostic groups, survival curves showed a stepwise decrease with increase in stage, except for Stage IIA. However, there were no significant differences seen between each prognostic stage. Conclusions: Our study indicates there are several problems with the 7th TNM staging system regarding prognostic factors in patients undergoing CRT.« less

Combined evaluation of the FAS cell surface death receptor and CD8+ tumor infiltrating lymphocytes as a prognostic biomarker in breast cancer

PubMed Central

Blok, Erik J.; van den Bulk, Jitske; Dekker-Ensink, N. Geeske; Derr, Remco; Kanters, Corné; Bastiaannet, Esther; Kroep, Judith R.; van de Velde, Cornelis J.H.; Kuppen, Peter J.K.

2017-01-01

Multiple studies showed the prognostic capacities of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), but not in other subtypes. We evaluated tumor expression of FAS, a key receptor in T-cell mediated apoptosis, as possible explanation for this differential prognostic value of TILs. Furthermore, we evaluated the prognostic relevance of FAS, both as an independent biomarker and in relation to CD8-positive T-cell presence. The study cohort consisted of 667 breast cancer patients treated in the LUMC between 1997 and 2009. FAS expression was determined using immunohistochemistry and the percentage of FAS-positive tumor cells was quantified. Furthermore, the number of CD8-positive infiltrating cells was determined, and its prognostic relevance was associated to FAS-expression using stratified survival analysis. In TNBC, FAS was averagely expressed in 49% of tumor cells, whereas ER-positive subtypes showed an average Fas expression of 16-20%. In the entire cohort, FAS was identified as significant prognostic marker for recurrence (adjusted HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.36-0.77) and borderline significant marker for overall survival (adjusted HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.52-1.01). Upon stratification for FAS-expression, CD8+ TILs were only prognostic at high levels (above median) of FAS expression in ER-negative disease. In summary, FAS was identified as an independent prognostic marker for recurrence free survival in breast cancer, with large variation in expression by receptor subtypes. Interestingly, the prognostic effect of CD8+ TILs in ER-negative disease was only valid for tumors with a high FAS expression. PMID:28121628

Combined evaluation of the FAS cell surface death receptor and CD8+ tumor infiltrating lymphocytes as a prognostic biomarker in breast cancer.

PubMed

Blok, Erik J; van den Bulk, Jitske; Dekker-Ensink, N Geeske; Derr, Remco; Kanters, Corné; Bastiaannet, Esther; Kroep, Judith R; van de Velde, Cornelis J H; Kuppen, Peter J K

2017-02-28

Multiple studies showed the prognostic capacities of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) in triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), but not in other subtypes. We evaluated tumor expression of FAS, a key receptor in T-cell mediated apoptosis, as possible explanation for this differential prognostic value of TILs. Furthermore, we evaluated the prognostic relevance of FAS, both as an independent biomarker and in relation to CD8-positive T-cell presence. The study cohort consisted of 667 breast cancer patients treated in the LUMC between 1997 and 2009. FAS expression was determined using immunohistochemistry and the percentage of FAS-positive tumor cells was quantified. Furthermore, the number of CD8-positive infiltrating cells was determined, and its prognostic relevance was associated to FAS-expression using stratified survival analysis. In TNBC, FAS was averagely expressed in 49% of tumor cells, whereas ER-positive subtypes showed an average Fas expression of 16-20%. In the entire cohort, FAS was identified as significant prognostic marker for recurrence (adjusted HR 0.53, 95% CI 0.36-0.77) and borderline significant marker for overall survival (adjusted HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.52-1.01). Upon stratification for FAS-expression, CD8+ TILs were only prognostic at high levels (above median) of FAS expression in ER-negative disease. In summary, FAS was identified as an independent prognostic marker for recurrence free survival in breast cancer, with large variation in expression by receptor subtypes. Interestingly, the prognostic effect of CD8+ TILs in ER-negative disease was only valid for tumors with a high FAS expression.

Prognostic indicators of poor short-term outcome of physiotherapy intervention in women with stress urinary incontinence.

PubMed

Hendriks, Erik J M; Kessels, Alfons G H; de Vet, Henrica C W; Bernards, Arnold T M; de Bie, Rob A

2010-03-01

To identify prognostic indicators independently associated with poor outcome of physiotherapy intervention in women with primary or recurrent stress urinary incontinence (stress UI). A prospective cohort study was performed in physiotherapy practices in primary care to identify prognostic indicators 12 weeks after initiation of physiotherapy intervention. Patients were referred by general practitioners or urogynecologists. Risk factors for stress UI were examined as potential prognostic indicators of poor outcome. The primary outcomes were defined as poor outcome on the binary Leakage Severity scale (LS scale) and the binary global perceived effectiveness (GPE) score. Two hundred sixty-seven women, with a mean age of 47.7 (SD = 8.3), with stress UI for at least 6 months were included. At 12 weeks, 43% and 59% of the women were considered recovered on the binary LS scale and the binary GPE score, respectively. Prognostic indicators associated with poor outcome included 11 indicators based on the binary LS scale and 8 based on the binary GPE score. The prognostic indicators shared by both models show that poor recovery was associated with women with severe stress UI, POP-Q stage > II, poor outcome of physiotherapy intervention for a previous UI episode, prolonged second stage of labor, BMI > 30, high psychological distress, and poor physical health. This study provides robust evidence of clinically meaningful prognostic indicators of poor short-term outcome. These findings need to be confirmed by replication studies. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Adjusted Analyses in Studies Addressing Therapy and Harm: Users' Guides to the Medical Literature.

PubMed

Agoritsas, Thomas; Merglen, Arnaud; Shah, Nilay D; O'Donnell, Martin; Guyatt, Gordon H

2017-02-21

Observational studies almost always have bias because prognostic factors are unequally distributed between patients exposed or not exposed to an intervention. The standard approach to dealing with this problem is adjusted or stratified analysis. Its principle is to use measurement of risk factors to create prognostically homogeneous groups and to combine effect estimates across groups.The purpose of this Users' Guide is to introduce readers to fundamental concepts underlying adjustment as a way of dealing with prognostic imbalance and to the basic principles and relative trustworthiness of various adjustment strategies.One alternative to the standard approach is propensity analysis, in which groups are matched according to the likelihood of membership in exposed or unexposed groups. Propensity methods can deal with multiple prognostic factors, even if there are relatively few patients having outcome events. However, propensity methods do not address other limitations of traditional adjustment: investigators may not have measured all relevant prognostic factors (or not accurately), and unknown factors may bias the results.A second approach, instrumental variable analysis, relies on identifying a variable associated with the likelihood of receiving the intervention but not associated with any prognostic factor or with the outcome (other than through the intervention); this could mimic randomization. However, as with assumptions of other adjustment approaches, it is never certain if an instrumental variable analysis eliminates bias.Although all these approaches can reduce the risk of bias in observational studies, none replace the balance of both known and unknown prognostic factors offered by randomization.

Expression of p40 (∆Np63) protein in meningiomas, an unexpected finding: immunohistochemical study and evaluation of its possible prognostic role.

PubMed

Guadagno, Elia; Del Basso De Caro, Marialaura; Pignatiello, Sara; Sciammarella, Concetta; Solari, Domenico; Cappabianca, Paolo; Maiuri, Francesco; Dones, Flavia

2016-09-01

According to the 2007 WHO (World Health Organization) Classification, meningiomas are divided into three grades of malignancy, with different recurrence rate, based exclusively on histopathological parameters. Loss/reduction of PgR (Progesterone Receptor) expression and increased Ki67 L.I. (Labeling Index) have been proven as possible prognostic factors able to predict the relapse of the disease. However, they sometimes result unreliable, especially when discordant. p40 is the short form of the p53 homologue gene p63, also named ∆Np63, and its antibody has recently been introduced as a highly specific diagnostic marker of the squamous cell carcinoma of the lung. Nevertheless its expression has been found in many other unconventional sites (e.g. placenta, urotheluim, etc). Herein we assessed the immuno-expression of p40 protein in a series of 72 meningiomas (35 grade I and 37 grade II) and analyzed its correlation with clinicopathological parameters, overall survival and recurrence free interval. We found that a high p40 score correlated with high histological grade, presence of recurrence, increased Ki67 L.I. and loss/reduction of PgR signal. Moreover, a higher expression of p40 was shown to be a significant prognostic factor for the development of recurrences and resulted a prognostic independent variable in multivariate analysis. Overall, for the first time, we investigated the expression of p40 protein in meningiomas and explored its usefulness as prognostic marker in addition to PgR and Ki67 L.I.

Survival rate and prognostic factors of conventional osteosarcoma in Northern Thailand: A series from Chiang Mai University Hospital.

PubMed

Pruksakorn, Dumnoensun; Phanphaisarn, Areerak; Arpornchayanon, Olarn; Uttamo, Nantawat; Leerapun, Taninnit; Settakorn, Jongkolnee

2015-12-01

Osteosarcoma is a common and aggressive primary malignant bone tumor occurring in children and adolescents. It is one of the most aggressive human cancers and the most common cause of cancer-associated limb loss. As treatment in Thailand has produced a lower survival rate than in developed countries; therefore, this study identified survival rate and the poor prognostic factors of osteosarcoma in Northern Thailand. The retrospective cases of osteosarcoma, diagnosis between 1 January 1996 and 31 December 2013, were evaluated. Five and ten year overall survival rates were analyzed using time-to-event analysis. Potential prognostic factors were identified by multivariate regression analysis. There were 208 newly diagnosed osteosarcomas during that period, and 144 cases met the criteria for analysis. The majority of the osteosarcoma cases (78.5%) were aged 0-24 years. The overall 5- and 10-year survival rates were 37.9% and 33.6%, respectively. Presence of metastasis at initial examination, delayed and against treatment co-operation, and axial skeletal location were identified as independent prognostic factors for survival, with hazard ratios of 4.3, 2.5 and 3.8, and 3.1, respectively. This osteosarcoma cohort had a relatively poor overall survival rate. The prognostic factors identified would play a critical role in modifying survival rates of osteosarcoma patients; as rapid disease recognition, a better treatment counselling, as well as improving of chemotherapeutic regimens were found to be important in improving the overall survival rate in Thailand. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Rational bases for the use of the Immunoscore in routine clinical settings as a prognostic and predictive biomarker in cancer patients

PubMed Central

Kirilovsky, Amos; Marliot, Florence; El Sissy, Carine; Haicheur, Nacilla; Galon, Jérôme

2016-01-01

The American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union Internationale Contre le Cancer (AJCC/UICC) tumor, nodes, metastasis (TNM) classification system based on tumor features is used for prognosis estimation and treatment recommendations in most cancers. However, the clinical outcome can vary significantly among patients within the same tumor stage and TNM classification does not predict response to therapy. Therefore, many efforts have been focused on the identification of new markers. Multiple tumor cell-based approaches have been proposed but very few have been translated into the clinic. The recent demonstration of the essential role of the immune system in tumor progression has allowed great advances in the understanding of this complex disease and in the design of novel therapies. The analysis of the immune infiltrate by imaging techniques in large patient cohorts highlighted the prognostic impact of the in situ immune cell infiltrate in tumors. Moreover, the characterization of the immune infiltrates (e.g. type, density, distribution within the tumor, phenotype, activation status) in patients treated with checkpoint-blockade strategies could provide information to predict the disease outcome. In colorectal cancer, we have developed a prognostic score (‘Immunoscore’) that takes into account the distribution of the density of both CD3+ lymphocytes and CD8+ cytotoxic T cells in the tumor core and the invasive margin that could outperform TNM staging. Currently, an international retrospective study is under way to validate the Immunoscore prognostic performance in patients with colon cancer. The use of Immunoscore in clinical practice could improve the patients’ prognostic assessment and therapeutic management. PMID:27121213

Prognostic effect of liver metastasis in lung cancer patients with distant metastasis.

PubMed

Ren, Yijiu; Dai, Chenyang; Zheng, Hui; Zhou, Fangyu; She, Yunlang; Jiang, Gening; Fei, Ke; Yang, Ping; Xie, Dong; Chen, Chang

2016-08-16

Because the need of clinical prognostic evaluation by specific metastatic organ, we aim to analyze the prognostic factors in lung cancer patients with M1b disease with Surveillance Epidemiology and End-Results database (SEER). This retrospective study evaluated lung cancer patients of adenocarcinoma (AD), squamous cell carcinoma (SQCC), and small cell lung cancer (SCLC) selected from SEER. We provided the prognostic correlates of overall survival (OS) and lung cancer-specific survival (LCSS) in this population. 23,679 eligible patients were included. Bone was the most common metastatic site in AD (63.1%) and SQCC (61.1%), while liver was the most prevalent site (61.9%) in SCLC. Single site metastasis was significantly associated with better outcome compared to multiple sites metastases in all patients. Among patients with single site metastasis, OS and LCSS were longer for AD and SCLC if involving brain or bone, with median survival time of 5 to 7 months, comparing to 3 months if invloving liver (all p-values < 0.001). Similarly, among patients with multiple metastases, better outcomes were observed in AD patients (4 vs 3 months; OS and LCSS, p < 0.001) and SCLC patients (6 vs 4 months; OS, p = 0.017; LCSS, p = 0.023) without liver metastasis compared to those with liver metastasis. In conclusion, we estimated multiple survival outcomes by histology of primary tumor and sites of metastasis. Liver metastasis is found to be the worst prognostic factor for AD and SCLC patients with distant metastasis. More in-depth research is warranted to identify patients who are prone to develop distance metastasis, especially to liver.

Do Optimal Prognostic Thresholds in Continuous Physiological Variables Really Exist? Analysis of Origin of Apparent Thresholds, with Systematic Review for Peak Oxygen Consumption, Ejection Fraction and BNP

PubMed Central

Leong, Tora; Rehman, Michaela B.; Pastormerlo, Luigi Emilio; Harrell, Frank E.; Coats, Andrew J. S.; Francis, Darrel P.

2014-01-01

Background Clinicians are sometimes advised to make decisions using thresholds in measured variables, derived from prognostic studies. Objectives We studied why there are conflicting apparently-optimal prognostic thresholds, for example in exercise peak oxygen uptake (pVO2), ejection fraction (EF), and Brain Natriuretic Peptide (BNP) in heart failure (HF). Data Sources and Eligibility Criteria Studies testing pVO2, EF or BNP prognostic thresholds in heart failure, published between 1990 and 2010, listed on Pubmed. Methods First, we examined studies testing pVO2, EF or BNP prognostic thresholds. Second, we created repeated simulations of 1500 patients to identify whether an apparently-optimal prognostic threshold indicates step change in risk. Results 33 studies (8946 patients) tested a pVO2 threshold. 18 found it prognostically significant: the actual reported threshold ranged widely (10–18 ml/kg/min) but was overwhelmingly controlled by the individual study population's mean pVO2 (r = 0.86, p<0.00001). In contrast, the 15 negative publications were testing thresholds 199% further from their means (p = 0.0001). Likewise, of 35 EF studies (10220 patients), the thresholds in the 22 positive reports were strongly determined by study means (r = 0.90, p<0.0001). Similarly, in the 19 positives of 20 BNP studies (9725 patients): r = 0.86 (p<0.0001). Second, survival simulations always discovered a “most significant” threshold, even when there was definitely no step change in mortality. With linear increase in risk, the apparently-optimal threshold was always near the sample mean (r = 0.99, p<0.001). Limitations This study cannot report the best threshold for any of these variables; instead it explains how common clinical research procedures routinely produce false thresholds. Key Findings First, shifting (and/or disappearance) of an apparently-optimal prognostic threshold is strongly determined by studies' average pVO2, EF or BNP. Second, apparently-optimal thresholds always appear, even with no step in prognosis. Conclusions Emphatic therapeutic guidance based on thresholds from observational studies may be ill-founded. We should not assume that optimal thresholds, or any thresholds, exist. PMID:24475020

Software framework for prognostic health monitoring of ocean-based power generation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bowren, Mark

On August 5, 2010 the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has designated the Center for Ocean Energy Technology (COET) at Florida Atlantic University (FAU) as a national center for ocean energy research and development of prototypes for open-ocean power generation. Maintenance on ocean-based machinery can be very costly. To avoid unnecessary maintenance it is necessary to monitor the condition of each machine in order to predict problems. This kind of prognostic health monitoring (PHM) requires a condition-based maintenance (CBM) system that supports diagnostic and prognostic analysis of large amounts of data. Research in this field led to the creation of ISO13374 and the development of a standard open-architecture for machine condition monitoring. This thesis explores an implementation of such a system for ocean-based machinery using this framework and current open-standard technologies.

Implementation of Remaining Useful Lifetime Transformer Models in the Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agarwal, Vivek; Lybeck, Nancy J.; Pham, Binh

Research and development efforts are required to address aging and reliability concerns of the existing fleet of nuclear power plants. As most plants continue to operate beyond the license life (i.e., towards 60 or 80 years), plant components are more likely to incur age-related degradation mechanisms. To assess and manage the health of aging plant assets across the nuclear industry, the Electric Power Research Institute has developed a web-based Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite for diagnosis and prognosis. FW-PHM is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases, comprised of the Diagnostic Advisor, the Asset Faultmore » Signature Database, the Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and the Remaining Useful Life Database, that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The main focus of this paper is the implementation of prognostic models for generator step-up transformers in the FW-PHM Suite. One prognostic model discussed is based on the functional relationship between degree of polymerization, (the most commonly used metrics to assess the health of the winding insulation in a transformer) and furfural concentration in the insulating oil. The other model is based on thermal-induced degradation of the transformer insulation. By utilizing transformer loading information, established thermal models are used to estimate the hot spot temperature inside the transformer winding. Both models are implemented in the Remaining Useful Life Database of the FW-PHM Suite. The Remaining Useful Life Advisor utilizes the implemented prognostic models to estimate the remaining useful life of the paper winding insulation in the transformer based on actual oil testing and operational data.« less

Improving the Prognostic Ability through Better Use of Standard Clinical Data - The Nottingham Prognostic Index as an Example

PubMed Central

Winzer, Klaus-Jürgen; Buchholz, Anika; Schumacher, Martin; Sauerbrei, Willi

2016-01-01

Background Prognostic factors and prognostic models play a key role in medical research and patient management. The Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) is a well-established prognostic classification scheme for patients with breast cancer. In a very simple way, it combines the information from tumor size, lymph node stage and tumor grade. For the resulting index cutpoints are proposed to classify it into three to six groups with different prognosis. As not all prognostic information from the three and other standard factors is used, we will consider improvement of the prognostic ability using suitable analysis approaches. Methods and Findings Reanalyzing overall survival data of 1560 patients from a clinical database by using multivariable fractional polynomials and further modern statistical methods we illustrate suitable multivariable modelling and methods to derive and assess the prognostic ability of an index. Using a REMARK type profile we summarize relevant steps of the analysis. Adding the information from hormonal receptor status and using the full information from the three NPI components, specifically concerning the number of positive lymph nodes, an extended NPI with improved prognostic ability is derived. Conclusions The prognostic ability of even one of the best established prognostic index in medicine can be improved by using suitable statistical methodology to extract the full information from standard clinical data. This extended version of the NPI can serve as a benchmark to assess the added value of new information, ranging from a new single clinical marker to a derived index from omics data. An established benchmark would also help to harmonize the statistical analyses of such studies and protect against the propagation of many false promises concerning the prognostic value of new measurements. Statistical methods used are generally available and can be used for similar analyses in other diseases. PMID:26938061

Prognostic significance of peripheral monocyte count in patients with extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma (ENKL) has heterogeneous clinical manifestations and prognosis. This study aims to evaluate the prognostic impact of absolute monocyte count (AMC) in ENKL, and provide some immunologically relevant information for better risk stratification in patients with ENKL. Methods Retrospective data from 163 patients newly diagnosed with ENKL were analyzed. The absolute monocyte count (AMC) at diagnosis was analyzed as continuous and dichotomized variables. Independent prognostic factors of survival were determined by Cox regression analysis. Results The AMC at diagnosis were related to overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) in patients with ENKL. Multivariate analysis identified AMC as independent prognostic factors of survival, independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) and Korean prognostic index (KPI). The prognostic index incorporating AMC and absolute lymphocyte count (ALC), another surrogate factor of immune status, could be used to stratify all 163 patients with ENKL into different prognostic groups. For patients who received chemotherapy followed by radiotherapy (102 cases), the three AMC/ALC index categories identified patients with significantly different survivals. When superimposed on IPI or KPI categories, the AMC/ALC index was better able to identify high-risk patients in the low-risk IPI or KPI category. Conclusion The baseline peripheral monocyte count is shown to be an effective prognostic indicator of survival in ENKL patients. The prognostic index related to tumor microenvironment might be helpful to identify high-risk patients with ENKL. PMID:23638998

Prognostics and Health Management of Wind Turbines: Current Status and Future Opportunities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sheng, Shuangwen

Prognostics and health management is not a new concept. It has been used in relatively mature industries, such as aviation and electronics, to help improve operation and maintenance (O&M) practices. In the wind industry, prognostics and health management is relatively new. The level for both wind industry applications and research and development (R&D) has increased in recent years because of its potential for reducing O&M cost of wind power, especially for turbines installed offshore. The majority of wind industry application efforts has been focused on diagnosis based on various sensing and feature extraction techniques. For R&D, activities are being conductedmore » in almost all areas of a typical prognostics and health management framework (i.e., sensing, data collection, feature extraction, diagnosis, prognosis, and maintenance scheduling). This presentation provides an overview of the current status of wind turbine prognostics and health management that focuses on drivetrain condition monitoring through vibration, oil debris, and oil condition analysis techniques. It also discusses turbine component health diagnosis through data mining and modeling based on supervisory control and data acquisition system data. Finally, it provides a brief survey of R&D activities for wind turbine prognostics and health management, along with future opportunities.« less

Prognostic score–based balance measures for propensity score methods in comparative effectiveness research

PubMed Central

Stuart, Elizabeth A.; Lee, Brian K.; Leacy, Finbarr P.

2013-01-01

Objective Examining covariate balance is the prescribed method for determining when propensity score methods are successful at reducing bias. This study assessed the performance of various balance measures, including a proposed balance measure based on the prognostic score (also known as the disease-risk score), to determine which balance measures best correlate with bias in the treatment effect estimate. Study Design and Setting The correlations of multiple common balance measures with bias in the treatment effect estimate produced by weighting by the odds, subclassification on the propensity score, and full matching on the propensity score were calculated. Simulated data were used, based on realistic data settings. Settings included both continuous and binary covariates and continuous covariates only. Results The standardized mean difference in prognostic scores, the mean standardized mean difference, and the mean t-statistic all had high correlations with bias in the effect estimate. Overall, prognostic scores displayed the highest correlations of all the balance measures considered. Prognostic score measure performance was generally not affected by model misspecification and performed well under a variety of scenarios. Conclusion Researchers should consider using prognostic score–based balance measures for assessing the performance of propensity score methods for reducing bias in non-experimental studies. PMID:23849158

Prognostic significance of pretreatment neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio in melanoma patients: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhan, Hui; Ma, Jian-Ying; Jian, Qi-Chao

2018-05-29

Recently, the prognostic value of the neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) has been widely evaluated in many cancers. Here we assessed the prognostic value of pretreatment NLR in melanoma. A range of online databases was systematically searched up to March,2018 for identify available studies which assessed the prognostic significance of NLR. Data from studies reporting a hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were weighted by generic inverse-variance and pooled in random effects meta-analysis. Twelve studies with 4593 individuals were included. Patients with elevated NLR had a significantly shorter overall survival (OS) (HR: 1.56, 95% CI: 1.28-1.90, p < .001) and disease-free survival (DFS)/progression-free survival (PFS) (HR = 1.86; 95% CI = 1.24-2.80; P = .003). Subgroup analyses showed that the negative prognostic effect of elevated NLR on OS remained substantial in North American and Europen populations and patients with non-metastatic and metastatic stage. Additionally, elevated NLR was related to worse OS in patients with melanoma, regardless of the sample size and the cut-off value. Our findings suggest that elevated pretreatment NLR was associated with poor prognosis in melanoma patients, suggesting NLR might be a prognostic factor in patients with melanoma. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

An Integrated Approach for Gear Health Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

He, David; Bechhoefer, Eric; Dempsey, Paula; Ma, Jinghua

2012-01-01

In this paper, an integrated approach for gear health prognostics using particle filters is presented. The presented method effectively addresses the issues in applying particle filters to gear health prognostics by integrating several new components into a particle filter: (1) data mining based techniques to effectively define the degradation state transition and measurement functions using a one-dimensional health index obtained by whitening transform; (2) an unbiased l-step ahead RUL estimator updated with measurement errors. The feasibility of the presented prognostics method is validated using data from a spiral bevel gear case study.

[Neuroendocrine neoplasm of digestive system with different grades: a clinicopathologic and prognostic study].

PubMed

Zhang, Ming-hui; Liu, Yan-hui; Luo, Xin-lan; Lin, Xing-tao; Zhuang, Heng-guo

2012-07-01

To study the clinicopathologic and prognostic features of neuroendocrine neoplasm of digestive system with different grades. The clinicopathologic features of 139 cases of neuroendocrine neoplasm occurring in digestive system were retrospectively reviewed and graded according to the 2010 World Health Organization classification of tumours of the digestive system. Immunohistochemical study for synaptophysin, chromogranin A and Ki-67 was carried out. The follow-up and survival data were analysed using Kaplan-Meier method. Prognostic factors were tested by Log-rank testing and independent risk factors were analysed using Cox regression model. Amongst the 139 cases studied, there were 88 cases (63.3%) of grade 1 tumors, 9 cases (6.5%) of grade 2 tumors and 42 cases (30.2%) of grade 3 tumors. There was diffusely positive staining for synaptophysin and chromogranin A in most of the grade 1 and grade 2 tumors. The staining in grade 3 tumors however was focal (P < 0.05). The differences in tumor size, depth of invasion, presence of tumor emboli, perineural permeation, nodal involvement, distant metastasis and survival rate amongst the three groups was statistically significant (P < 0.05). There is significant difference in the clinicopathologic and prognostic features of neuroendocrine neoplasm of digestive system with different grades. It is considered as an independent prognostic factor and represents a useful tool for prognostic evaluation of such tumors, both in clinical practice and research.

The metabolic microenvironment of melanomas: Prognostic value of MCT1 and MCT4.

PubMed

Pinheiro, Céline; Miranda-Gonçalves, Vera; Longatto-Filho, Adhemar; Vicente, Anna L S A; Berardinelli, Gustavo N; Scapulatempo-Neto, Cristovam; Costa, Ricardo F A; Viana, Cristiano R; Reis, Rui M; Baltazar, Fátima; Vazquez, Vinicius L

2016-06-02

BRAF mutations are known drivers of melanoma development and, recently, were also described as players in the Warburg effect, while this reprogramming of energy metabolism has been identified as a possible strategy for treating melanoma patients. Therefore, the aim of this work was to evaluate the expression and prognostic value of a panel of glycolytic metabolism-related proteins in a series of melanomas. The immunohistochemical expression of MCT1, MCT4, GLUT1, and CAIX was evaluated in 356 patients presenting melanoma and 20 patients presenting benign nevi. Samples included 20 benign nevi, 282 primary melanomas, 117 lymph node and 54 distant metastases samples. BRAF mutation was observed in 29/92 (31.5%) melanoma patients and 17/20 (85%) benign nevi samples. NRAS mutation was observed in 4/36 (11.1%) melanoma patients and 1/19 (5.3%) benign nevi samples. MCT4 and GLUT1 expression was significantly increased in metastatic samples, and MCT1, MCT4 and GLUT1 were significantly associated with poor prognostic variables. Importantly, MCT1 and MCT4 were associated with shorter overall survival. In conclusion, the present study brings new insights on metabolic aspects of melanoma, paving the way for the development of new-targeted therapies.

Predicting complete cytogenetic response and subsequent progression-free survival in 2060 patients with CML on imatinib treatment: the EUTOS score.

PubMed

Hasford, Joerg; Baccarani, Michele; Hoffmann, Verena; Guilhot, Joelle; Saussele, Susanne; Rosti, Gianantonio; Guilhot, François; Porkka, Kimmo; Ossenkoppele, Gert; Lindoerfer, Doris; Simonsson, Bengt; Pfirrmann, Markus; Hehlmann, Rudiger

2011-07-21

The outcome of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has been profoundly changed by the introduction of tyrosine kinase inhibitors into therapy, but the prognosis of patients with CML is still evaluated using prognostic scores developed in the chemotherapy and interferon era. The present work describes a new prognostic score that is superior to the Sokal and Euro scores both in its prognostic ability and in its simplicity. The predictive power of the score was developed and tested on a group of patients selected from a registry of 2060 patients enrolled in studies of first-line treatment with imatinib-based regimes. The EUTOS score using the percentage of basophils and spleen size best discriminated between high-risk and low-risk groups of patients, with a positive predictive value of not reaching a CCgR of 34%. Five-year progression-free survival was significantly better in the low- than in the high-risk group (90% vs 82%, P = .006). These results were confirmed in the validation sample. The score can be used to identify CML patients with significantly lower probabilities of responding to therapy and survival, thus alerting physicians to those patients who require closer observation and early intervention.

Prognostics-based qualification of high-power white LEDs using Lévy process approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yung, Kam-Chuen; Sun, Bo; Jiang, Xiaopeng

2017-01-01

Due to their versatility in a variety of applications and the growing market demand, high-power white light-emitting diodes (LEDs) have attracted considerable attention. Reliability qualification testing is an essential part of the product development process to ensure the reliability of a new LED product before its release. However, the widely used IES-TM-21 method does not provide comprehensive reliability information. For more accurate and effective qualification, this paper presents a novel method based on prognostics techniques. Prognostics is an engineering technology predicting the future reliability or determining the remaining useful lifetime (RUL) of a product by assessing the extent of deviation or degradation from its expected normal operating conditions. A Lévy subordinator of a mixed Gamma and compound Poisson process is used to describe the actual degradation process of LEDs characterized by random sporadic small jumps of degradation degree, and the reliability function is derived for qualification with different distribution forms of jump sizes. The IES LM-80 test results reported by different LED vendors are used to develop and validate the qualification methodology. This study will be helpful for LED manufacturers to reduce the total test time and cost required to qualify the reliability of an LED product.

The relationship of transversus abdominis and lumbar multifidus activation and prognostic factors for clinical success with a stabilization exercise program: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Hebert, Jeffrey J; Koppenhaver, Shane L; Magel, John S; Fritz, Julie M

2010-01-01

Hebert JJ, Koppenhaver SL, Magel JS, Fritz JM. The relationship of transversus abdominis and lumbar multifidus activation and prognostic factors for clinical success with a stabilization exercise program: a cross-sectional study. To examine the relationship between prognostic factors for clinical success with a stabilization exercise program and lumbar multifidus (LM) and transversus abdominis (TrA) muscle activation assessed using rehabilitative ultrasound imaging (RUSI). Cross-sectional study. Outpatient physical therapy clinic. Volunteers with current low back pain (N=40). Not applicable. We examined the relationship between prognostic factors associated with clinical success with a stabilization exercise program (positive prone instability test, age <40y, aberrant movements, straight leg raise >91 degrees , presence of lumbar hypermobility) and degree of TrA and LM muscle activation assessed by RUSI. Significant univariate relationships were identified between LM muscle activation and the number of prognostic factors present (Pearson correlation coefficient [r] =-.558, P=.001), as well as the individual factors of a positive prone instability test (point biserial correlation coefficient [r(pbis)]=.376, P=.018) and segmental hypermobility (r(pbis)=.358, P=.025). The multivariate analyses indicated that after controlling for other variables, the addition of the variable "number of prognostic factors present" resulted in a significant increase in R(2) (P=.006). No significant univariate or multivariate relationships were observed between the prognostic factors and TrA muscle activation. Decreased LM muscle activation, but not TrA muscle activation, is associated with the presence of factors predictive of clinical success with a stabilization exercise program. Our findings provide researchers and clinicians with evidence regarding the construct validity of the prognostic factors examined in this study, as well as the potential clinical importance of the LM muscle as a target for stabilization exercises. Copyright (c) 2010 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Composite prognostic models across the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease spectrum: Clinical application in developing countries

PubMed Central

Lückhoff, Hilmar K; Kruger, Frederik C; Kotze, Maritha J

2015-01-01

Heterogeneity in clinical presentation, histological severity, prognosis and therapeutic outcomes characteristic of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) necessitates the development of scientifically sound classification schemes to assist clinicians in stratifying patients into meaningful prognostic subgroups. The need for replacement of invasive liver biopsies as the standard method whereby NAFLD is diagnosed, graded and staged with biomarkers of histological severity injury led to the development of composite prognostic models as potentially viable surrogate alternatives. In the present article, we review existing scoring systems used to (1) confirm the presence of undiagnosed hepatosteatosis; (2) distinguish between simple steatosis and NASH; and (3) predict advanced hepatic fibrosis, with particular emphasis on the role of NAFLD as an independent cardio-metabolic risk factor. In addition, the incorporation of functional genomic markers and application of emerging imaging technologies are discussed as a means to improve the diagnostic accuracy and predictive performance of promising composite models found to be most appropriate for widespread clinical adoption. PMID:26019735

Stage Separation Failure: Model Based Diagnostics and Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Luchinsky, Dmitry; Hafiychuk, Vasyl; Kulikov, Igor; Smelyanskiy, Vadim; Patterson-Hine, Ann; Hanson, John; Hill, Ashley

2010-01-01

Safety of the next-generation space flight vehicles requires development of an in-flight Failure Detection and Prognostic (FD&P) system. Development of such system is challenging task that involves analysis of many hard hitting engineering problems across the board. In this paper we report progress in the development of FD&P for the re-contact fault between upper stage nozzle and the inter-stage caused by the first stage and upper stage separation failure. A high-fidelity models and analytical estimations are applied to analyze the following sequence of events: (i) structural dynamics of the nozzle extension during the impact; (ii) structural stability of the deformed nozzle in the presence of the pressure and temperature loads induced by the hot gas flow during engine start up; and (iii) the fault induced thrust changes in the steady burning regime. The diagnostic is based on the measurements of the impact torque. The prognostic is based on the analysis of the correlation between the actuator signal and fault-induced changes in the nozzle structural stability and thrust.

Early Prognostication Markers in Cardiac Arrest Patients Treated with Hypothermia

PubMed Central

Karapetkova, Maria; Koenig, Matthew A.; Jia, Xiaofeng

2015-01-01

Background and purpose Established prognostication markers, such as clinical findings, electroencephalography (EEG), and biochemical markers, used by clinicians to predict neurologic outcome after cardiac arrest (CA) are altered under therapeutic hypothermia (TH) conditions and their validity remains uncertain. Methods MEDLINE and EMBASE were searched for evidence on the current standards for neurologic outcome prediction for out-of-hospital CA patients treated with TH and the validity of a wide range of prognostication markers. Relevant studies that suggested one or several established biomarkers, and multimodal approaches for prognostication were included and reviewed. Results While the prognostic accuracy of various tests has been questioned after TH, pupillary light reflexes and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP) are still strongly associated with negative outcome for early prognostication. Increasingly, EEG background activity has also been identified as a valid predictor for outcome after 72 hours after CA and a preferred prognostic method in clinical settings. Neuroimaging techniques, such as MRI and CT, can identify functional and structural brain injury, but are not readily available at the patient’s bedside because of limited availability and high costs. Conclusions A multimodal algorithm composed of neurological examination, EEG-based quantitative testing, and SSEP, in conjunction with newer MRI sequences, if available, holds promise for accurate prognostication in CA patients treated with TH. In order to avoid premature withdrawal of care, prognostication should be performed later than 72 hours after CA. PMID:26228521

Early prognostication markers in cardiac arrest patients treated with hypothermia.

PubMed

Karapetkova, M; Koenig, M A; Jia, X

2016-03-01

Established prognostication markers, such as clinical findings, electroencephalography (EEG) and biochemical markers, used by clinicians to predict neurological outcome after cardiac arrest (CA) are altered under therapeutic hypothermia (TH) conditions and their validity remains uncertain. MEDLINE and Embase were searched for evidence on the current standards for neurological outcome prediction for out-of-hospital CA patients treated with TH and the validity of a wide range of prognostication markers. Relevant studies that suggested one or several established biomarkers and multimodal approaches for prognostication are included and reviewed. Whilst the prognostic accuracy of various tests after TH has been questioned, pupillary light reflexes and somatosensory evoked potentials are still strongly associated with negative outcome for early prognostication. Increasingly, EEG background activity has also been identified as a valid predictor for outcome after 72 h after CA and a preferred prognostic method in clinical settings. Neuroimaging techniques, such as magnetic resonance imaging and computed tomography, can identify functional and structural brain injury but are not readily available at the patient's bedside because of limited availability and high costs. A multimodal algorithm composed of neurological examination, EEG-based quantitative testing and somatosensory evoked potentials, in conjunction with newer magnetic resonance imaging sequences, if available, holds promise for accurate prognostication in CA patients treated with TH. In order to avoid premature withdrawal of care, prognostication should be performed more than 72 h after CA. © 2015 EAN.

A Multicenter Study of Key Stakeholders’ Perspectives on Communicating with Surrogates about Prognosis in Intensive Care Units

PubMed Central

Cimino, Jenica W.; Ernecoff, Natalie C.; Ungar, Anna; Shotsberger, Kaitlin J.; Pollice, Laura A.; Buddadhumaruk, Praewpannarai; Carson, Shannon S.; Curtis, J. Randall; Hough, Catherine L.; Lo, Bernard; Matthay, Michael A.; Peterson, Michael W.; Steingrub, Jay S.; White, Douglas B.

2015-01-01

Rationale: Surrogates of critically ill patients often have inaccurate expectations about prognosis. Yet there is little research on how intensive care unit (ICU) clinicians should discuss prognosis, and existing expert opinion–based recommendations give only general guidance that has not been validated with surrogate decision makers. Objective: To determine the perspectives of key stakeholders regarding how prognostic information should be conveyed in critical illness. Methods: This was a multicenter study at three academic medical centers in California, Pennsylvania, and Washington. One hundred eighteen key stakeholders completed in-depth semistructured interviews. Participants included 47 surrogates of adult patients with acute respiratory distress syndrome; 45 clinicians working in study ICUs, including physicians, nurses, social workers, and spiritual care providers; and 26 experts in health communication, decision science, ethics, family-centered care, geriatrics, healthcare disparities, palliative care, psychology, psychiatry, and critical care. Measurements and Main Results: There was broad support among surrogates for existing expert recommendations, including truthful prognostic disclosure, emotional support, tailoring the disclosure strategy to each family’s needs, and checking for understanding. In addition, stakeholders offered suggestions that add specificity to existing recommendations, including: (1) In addition to conveying prognostic estimates, clinicians should help families “see the prognosis for themselves” by showing families radiographic images and explaining the clinical significance of physical manifestations of severe disease at the bedside. (2) Many physicians did not support using numeric estimates to convey prognosis to families, whereas many surrogates, clinicians from other disciplines, and experts believed numbers could be helpful. (3) Clinicians should conceptualize prognostic communication as an iterative process that begins with a preliminary mention of the possibility of death early in the ICU stay and becomes more detailed as the clinical situation develops. (4) Although prognostic information should be initially disclosed by physicians, other members of the multidisciplinary team—nurses, social workers, and spiritual care providers—should be given explicit role responsibilities to reinforce physicians’ prognostications and help families process a poor prognosis emotionally. Conclusions: Family members, clinicians, and experts identified specific communication behaviors that clinicians should use to discuss prognosis in the critical care setting. These findings extend existing opinion-based recommendations and should guide interventions to improve communication about prognosis in ICUs. PMID:25521191

An Assessment of Integrated Health Management (IHM) Frameworks

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

N. Lybeck; M. Tawfik; L. Bond

In order to meet the ever increasing demand for energy, the United States nuclear industry is turning to life extension of existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). Economically ensuring the safe, secure, and reliable operation of aging nuclear power plants presents many challenges. The 2009 Light Water Reactor Sustainability Workshop identified online monitoring of active and structural components as essential to the better understanding and management of the challenges posed by aging nuclear power plants. Additionally, there is increasing adoption of condition-based maintenance (CBM) for active components in NPPs. These techniques provide a foundation upon which a variety of advanced onlinemore » surveillance, diagnostic, and prognostic techniques can be deployed to continuously monitor and assess the health of NPP systems and components. The next step in the development of advanced online monitoring is to move beyond CBM to estimating the remaining useful life of active components using prognostic tools. Deployment of prognostic health management (PHM) on the scale of a NPP requires the use of an integrated health management (IHM) framework - a software product (or suite of products) used to manage the necessary elements needed for a complete implementation of online monitoring and prognostics. This paper provides a thoughtful look at the desirable functions and features of IHM architectures. A full PHM system involves several modules, including data acquisition, system modeling, fault detection, fault diagnostics, system prognostics, and advisory generation (operations and maintenance planning). The standards applicable to PHM applications are indentified and summarized. A list of evaluation criteria for PHM software products, developed to ensure scalability of the toolset to an environment with the complexity of a NPP, is presented. Fourteen commercially available PHM software products are identified and classified into four groups: research tools, PHM system development tools, deployable architectures, and peripheral tools.« less

High expression of Bruton's tyrosine kinase (BTK) is required for EGFR-induced NF-κB activation and predicts poor prognosis in human glioma.

PubMed

Yue, Chenglong; Niu, Mingshan; Shan, Qian Qian; Zhou, Ting; Tu, Yiming; Xie, Peng; Hua, Lei; Yu, Rutong; Liu, Xuejiao

2017-09-25

Malignant glioma is the most common primary brain tumor in adults and has a poor prognosis. However, there are no effective targeted therapies for glioma patients. Thus, the development of novel targeted therapeutics for glioma is urgently needed. In this study, we examined the prognostic significance BTK expression in patients with glioma. Furthermore, we investigated the mechanism and therapeutic potential of ibrutinib in the treatment of human glioma in vitro and in vivo. Our data demonstrate that high expression of BTK is a novel prognostic marker for poor survival in patients with glioma. BTK-specific inhibitor ibrutinib effectively inhibits the proliferation, migration and invasion ability of glioma cells. Furthermore, ibrutinib can induce G1 cell-cycle arrest by regulating multiple cell cycle-associated proteins. More importantly, we found that BTK inhibition significantly blocks the degradation of IκBα and prevents the nuclear accumulation of NF-κB p65 subunit induced by EGF in glioma cells. Taken together, our study suggests that BTK is a novel prognostic marker and molecular therapeutic target for glioma. BTK is required for EGFR-induced NF-κB activation in glioma cells. These findings provide the basis for future clinical studies of ibrutinib for the treatment of glioma.

Canine Distemper Virus Antigen Detection in External Epithelia of Recently Vaccinated, Sick Dogs by Fluorescence Microscopy Is a Valuable Prognostic Indicator

PubMed Central

Neel, Tina

2014-01-01

Currently, there are no reliable predictors of the clinical outcomes of domesticated dogs that have been recently vaccinated against canine distemper virus (CDV) and develop respiratory disease. In this study, vaccinated dogs from Oklahoma City that were showing clinical signs of respiratory disease were evaluated for CDV antigen using a direct fluorescent antibody test (FAT). Clinical outcomes after standard symptomatic therapy for respiratory disease were recorded, and a statistical analysis of the results was performed. We present our study showing that CDV FAT results were predictive of clinical recovery (prognostic indicator, prospects of clinical recovery) among vaccinated dogs showing clinical signs of respiratory disease. Negative CDV FAT results equated to 80% chances of recovery after symptomatic therapy, compared to 55% chances of recovery when the CDV FAT results were positive. Based on the results of this study, we show that veterinarians can make better informed decisions about the clinical outcomes of suspected CDV cases, with 2-h turnaround times, by using the CDV FAT. Thus, antemortem examination with the CDV FAT on external epithelia of recently vaccinated, sick dogs is a clinically useful diagnostic test and valuable prognostic indicator for veterinarians. Application of the CDV FAT to these samples avoids unnecessary euthanasia of dogs with suspected CDV. PMID:25428156

Non-traumatic arm, neck and shoulder complaints: prevalence, course and prognosis in a Dutch university population

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Complaints of arm, neck and shoulder are a major health problem in Western societies and a huge economic burden due to sickness absence and health-care costs. In 2003 the 12-month prevalence’s in the Netherlands were estimated at 31.4% for neck pain, 30.3% for shoulder pain, and 17.5% for wrist and hand pain. Research data suggest that these complaints are increasingly common among university students. The aims of the present study are to provide insight into the prevalence of complaints of arm, neck or shoulder in a university population, to evaluate the clinical course of these complaints and to identify prognostic factors which influence this course. Methods The present study is designed as a prospective cohort study, in which a cross-sectional survey is embedded. A self-administered cross-sectional survey will be conducted to gain insight into the prevalence of complaints of arm, neck or shoulder among university students and staff, and to identify persons who are eligible for follow up in the prognostic cohort study. Patients with a new complaint of pain and discomfort in neck and upper extremities between 18–65 years will be asked to participate in the prognostic cohort study. At baseline, after 6, 12, 26 and 52 weeks individual patient data will be collected by means of digitized self-administered questionnaires. The following putative prognostic determinants will be investigated: socio-demographic factors, work-related factors, complaint characteristics, physical activity and psychosocial factors. The primary outcome is subjective recovery. Secondary outcomes are functional limitations of the arm, neck, shoulder and hand, and complaint severity during the previous week. Discussion To our knowledge, this is the first prognostic study on the course of complaints of arm, neck or shoulder that is conducted within a university population. Moreover, there are hardly any studies that have estimated the prevalence of these complaints among university students. The results of this study can be used for patient education and management decisions, as well as for the development of interventions. Moreover, identification of high risk groups in the population is needed to generate hypotheses or explanations of health differences and for the design of prevention programs. PMID:23289824

Identification of a 5‑lncRNA signature‑based risk scoring system for survival prediction in colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Gu, Liqiang; Yu, Jun; Wang, Qing; Xu, Bin; Ji, Liechen; Yu, Lin; Zhang, Xipeng; Cai, Hui

2018-05-03

The present study aimed to investigate potential prognostic long noncoding RNAs (lncRNAs) associated with colorectal cancer (CRC). An mRNA‑seq dataset obtained from The Cancer Genome Atlas was employed to identify the differentially expressed lncRNAs (DELs) between CRC patients with good and poor prognoses. Subsequently, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to analyze the prognosis‑associated lncRNAs among all DELs. In addition, a risk scoring system was developed according to the expression levels of the prognostic lncRNAs, which was then applied to a training set and an independent testing set. Furthermore, the co‑expressed genes of prognostic lncRNAs were screened using a Multi‑Experiment Matrix online tool for construction of lncRNA‑gene networks. Finally, Kyoto Encyclopedia of Genes and Genomes pathway and Gene Ontology (GO) function enrichment analyses were performed on genes in the lncRNA‑gene networks using KOBAS, GOATOOLS and ClusterProfiler. The present study identified 82 DELs, of which long intergenic nonprotein coding RNA 2159, RP11‑452L6.6, RP11‑894P9.1 and RP11‑69M1.6, and whey acidic protein four‑disulfide core domain 21 (WFDC21P) were reported to be independently associated with the prognosis of patients with CRC. A 5‑lncRNA signature‑based risk scoring system was developed, which may be used to classify patients into low‑ and high‑risk groups with significantly different recurrence‑free survival times in the training and testing sets (P<0.05). Co‑expressed genes of WFDC21P or RP11‑69M1.6 were utilized to construct the lncRNA‑gene networks. Genes in the networks were significantly enriched in 'tight junction', 'focal adhesion' and 'regulation of actin cytoskeleton' pathways, and numerous GO terms associated with 'reactive oxygen species metabolism' and 'nitric oxide metabolism'. The present study proposed a 5‑lncRNA signature‑based risk scoring system for predicting the prognosis of patients with CRC, and revealed the associated signaling pathways and biological processes. The results of the present study may help improve prognostic evaluation in clinical practice.

Development of Asset Fault Signatures for Prognostic and Health Management in the Nuclear Industry

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vivek Agarwal; Nancy J. Lybeck; Randall Bickford

2014-06-01

Proactive online monitoring in the nuclear industry is being explored using the Electric Power Research Institute’s Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite software. The FW-PHM Suite is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The FW-PHM Suite has four main modules: Diagnostic Advisor, Asset Fault Signature (AFS) Database, Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and Remaining Useful Life Database. This paper focuses on development of asset fault signatures to assess the health status of generator step-up generators and emergency diesel generators in nuclear power plants. Asset fault signatures describe themore » distinctive features based on technical examinations that can be used to detect a specific fault type. At the most basic level, fault signatures are comprised of an asset type, a fault type, and a set of one or more fault features (symptoms) that are indicative of the specified fault. The AFS Database is populated with asset fault signatures via a content development exercise that is based on the results of intensive technical research and on the knowledge and experience of technical experts. The developed fault signatures capture this knowledge and implement it in a standardized approach, thereby streamlining the diagnostic and prognostic process. This will support the automation of proactive online monitoring techniques in nuclear power plants to diagnose incipient faults, perform proactive maintenance, and estimate the remaining useful life of assets.« less

Prognostic value of circulating VEGFR2+ bone marrow-derived progenitor cells in patients with advanced cancer.

PubMed

Massard, Christophe; Borget, Isabelle; Le Deley, Marie Cécile; Taylor, Melissa; Gomez-Roca, Carlos; Soria, Jean Charles; Farace, Françoise

2012-06-01

We hypothesised that host-related markers, possibly reflecting tumour aggressiveness, such as circulating endothelial cells (CEC) and circulating VEGFR2(+) bone marrow-derived (BMD) progenitor cells, could have prognostic value in patients with advanced cancer enrolled in early anticancer drug development trials. Baseline CECs (CD45(-)CD31(+)CD146(+)7AAD(-) cells) and circulating VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor cells (defined as CD45(dim)CD34(+)VEGFR2(+)7AAD(-) cells) were measured by flow-cytometry in 71 and 58 patients included in phase 1 trials testing novel anti-vascular or anti-angiogenic agents. Correlations between levels of CECs, circulating VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor cells, clinical and biological prognostic factors (i.e. the Royal Marsden Hospital (RMH) score), and overall survival (OS) were studied. The median value of CECs was 12 CEC/ml (range 0-154/ml). The median level of VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor cells was 1.3% (range 0-32.5%) of circulating BMD-CD34(+) progenitors. While OS was not correlated with CEC levels, it was significantly worse in patients with high VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor levels (>1%) (median OS 9.0 versus 17.0 months), and with a RMH prognostic score >0 (median OS 9.0 versus 24.2 months). The prognostic value of VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor levels remained significant (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1-4.6, p = 0.02) after multivariate analysis. A composite VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor level/RHM score ≥ 2 was significantly associated with an increased risk of death compared to scores of 0 or 1 (median OS 9.0 versus 18.4 months, HR = 2.6 (95%CI, 1.2-5.8, p = 0.02)). High circulating VEGFR2(+)-BMD progenitor levels are associated with poor prognostics and when combined to classical clinical and biological parameters could provide a new tool for patient selection in early anticancer drug trials. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Joint System Prognostics For Increased Efficiency And Risk Mitigation In Advanced Nuclear Reactor Instrumentation and Control

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Donald D. Dudenhoeffer; Tuan Q. Tran; Ronald L. Boring

2006-08-01

The science of prognostics is analogous to a doctor who, based on a set of symptoms and patient tests, assesses a probable cause, the risk to the patient, and a course of action for recovery. While traditional prognostics research has focused on the aspect of hydraulic and mechanical systems and associated failures, this project will take a joint view in focusing not only on the digital I&C aspect of reliability and risk, but also on the risks associated with the human element. Model development will not only include an approximation of the control system physical degradation but also on humanmore » performance degradation. Thus the goal of the prognostic system is to evaluate control room operation; to identify and potentially take action when performance degradation reduces plant efficiency, reliability or safety.« less

Prognostic significance of anaplasia and angiogenesis in childhood medulloblastoma: a pediatric oncology group study.

PubMed

Ozer, Erdener; Sarialioglu, Faik; Cetingoz, Riza; Yüceer, Nurullah; Cakmakci, Handan; Ozkal, Sermin; Olgun, Nur; Uysal, Kamer; Corapcioglu, Funda; Canda, Serefettin

2004-01-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate whether quantitative assessment of cytologic anaplasia and angiogenesis may predict the clinical prognosis in medulloblastoma and stratify the patients to avoid both undertreatment and overtreatment. Medulloblastomas from 23 patients belonging to the Pediatric Oncology Group were evaluated with respect to some prognostic variables, including histologic assessment of nodularity and desmoplasia, grading of anaplasia, measurement of nuclear size, mitotic cell count, quantification of angiogenesis, including vascular surface density (VSD) and microvessel number (NVES), and immunohistochemical scoring of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) expression. Univariate and multivariate analyses for prognostic indicators for survival were performed. Univariate analysis revealed that extensive nodularity was a significant favorable prognostic factor, whereas the presence of anaplasia, increased nuclear size, mitotic rate, VSD, and NVES were significant unfavorable prognostic factors. Using multivariate analysis, increased nuclear size was found to be an independent unfavorable prognostic factor for survival. Neither the presence of desmoplasia nor VEGF expression was significantly related to patient survival. Although care must be taken not to overstate the importance of the results of this single-institution preliminary report, pathologic grading of medulloblastomas with respect to grading of anaplasia and quantification of nodularity, nuclear size, and microvessel profiles may be clinically useful for the treatment of medulloblastomas. Further validation of the independent prognostic significance of nuclear size in stratifying patients is required.

Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management Suite: Asset Fault Signature Database

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Vivek Agarwal; Nancy J. Lybeck; Randall Bickford

Proactive online monitoring in the nuclear industry is being explored using the Electric Power Research Institute’s Fleet-Wide Prognostic and Health Management (FW-PHM) Suite software. The FW-PHM Suite is a set of web-based diagnostic and prognostic tools and databases that serves as an integrated health monitoring architecture. The FW-PHM Suite has four main modules: (1) Diagnostic Advisor, (2) Asset Fault Signature (AFS) Database, (3) Remaining Useful Life Advisor, and (4) Remaining Useful Life Database. The paper focuses on the AFS Database of the FW-PHM Suite, which is used to catalog asset fault signatures. A fault signature is a structured representation ofmore » the information that an expert would use to first detect and then verify the occurrence of a specific type of fault. The fault signatures developed to assess the health status of generator step-up transformers are described in the paper. The developed fault signatures capture this knowledge and implement it in a standardized approach, thereby streamlining the diagnostic and prognostic process. This will support the automation of proactive online monitoring techniques in nuclear power plants to diagnose incipient faults, perform proactive maintenance, and estimate the remaining useful life of assets.« less

Selection for inpatient rehabilitation after acute stroke: a systematic review of the literature.

PubMed

Hakkennes, Sharon J; Brock, Kim; Hill, Keith D

2011-12-01

To identify patient-related factors that have been found to correlate with functional outcomes post acute stroke to guide clinical decision making with regard to rehabilitation admission after acute stroke. We systematically searched the scientific literature between 1966 and January 2010. The primary source of studies was the electronic databases Medline, CINAHL, and Embase. The search was supplemented with citation tracking. Two reviewers independently applied the inclusion criteria to identify relevant articles from the citations obtained through the literature search. Eligible studies included systematic reviews of prognostic indicators, studies of prognostic indicators of acute discharge disposition, and studies of rehabilitation admission criteria after acute stroke. Of the 8895 studies identified, 83 articles, representing 79 studies, were included in the review. One reviewer extracted the data relating to the participants, prognostic indicators, and outcomes. A second reviewer independently checked data extracted with disagreement resolved by a third reviewer. Quality of included studies was assessed for internal and external validity. Of the 79 studies, 26 were systematic reviews of prognostic indicators of functional level and/or discharge disposition, 48 were studies of prognostic indicators of acute discharge disposition, and 6 were studies of rehabilitation selection criteria. The methodologic quality of the included studies was generally poor. Age, cognition, functional level after stroke, and, to a lesser extent, continence were found to have a consistent association with outcome across all 3 research areas. In addition, stroke severity was also associated with acute discharge disposition, final discharge disposition, and functional level. Sex and side of stroke appeared to have no association across all 3 of the research areas. This review highlights a number of important prognostic indicators and rehabilitation selection criteria that may assist clinicians in improving selection procedures and standardizing access to inpatient rehabilitation after stroke, although the quality of many studies is low. Further high quality studies and reviews of prognostic indicators and clinician decision making with regards to rehabilitation acceptance are required. Copyright © 2011 American Congress of Rehabilitation Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Development and external validation of nomograms to predict the risk of skeletal metastasis at the time of diagnosis and skeletal metastasis-free survival in nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

PubMed

Yang, Lin; Xia, Liangping; Wang, Yan; He, Shasha; Chen, Haiyang; Liang, Shaobo; Peng, Peijian; Hong, Shaodong; Chen, Yong

2017-09-06

The skeletal system is the most common site of distant metastasis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC); various prognostic factors have been reported for skeletal metastasis, though most studies have focused on a single factor. We aimed to establish nomograms to effectively predict skeletal metastasis at initial diagnosis (SMAD) and skeletal metastasis-free survival (SMFS) in NPC. A total of 2685 patients with NPC who received bone scintigraphy (BS) and/or 18F-deoxyglucose positron emission tomography/computed tomography (18F-FDG PET/CT) and 2496 patients without skeletal metastasis were retrospectively assessed to develop individual nomograms for SMAD and SMFS. The models were validated externally using separate cohorts of 1329 and 1231 patients treated at two other institutions. Five independent prognostic factors were included in each nomogram. The SMAD nomogram had a significantly higher c-index than the TNM staging system (training cohort, P = 0.005; validation cohort, P < 0.001). The SMFS nomogram had significantly higher c-index values in the training and validation sets than the TNM staging system (P < 0.001 and P = 0.005, respectively). Three proposed risk stratification groups were created using the nomograms, and enabled significant discrimination of SMFS for each risk group. The prognostic nomograms established in this study enable accurate stratification of distinct risk groups for skeletal metastasis, which may improve counseling and facilitate individualized management of patients with NPC.

PD-L1 expression in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma is a poor prognostic factor in patients with high CD8+ tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes: highly sensitive detection using phosphor-integrated dot staining.

PubMed

Yamaki, So; Yanagimoto, Hiroaki; Tsuta, Koji; Ryota, Hironori; Kon, Masanori

2017-08-01

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has an extremely poor prognosis. For the development of more effective immunotherapies, it is first necessary to elucidate the immunological escape mechanisms. In this study, we applied our recently developed highly sensitive immunostaining method employing fluorescent phosphor-integrated dot (PID) nanoparticles to evaluate the prevalence of programmed death ligand 1 (PD-L1) in patients with PDAC. This study included 42 patients with PDAC who underwent pancreatectomy. We evaluated PD-L1 expression in these patients using PID staining and correlated PD-L1 expression level with each patient's clinico-pathological features. PD-L1 expression was detected in 61.9% (26/42) of the patients with PDAC by PID staining. There was a significant difference in overall survival between PD-L1-positive and PD-L1-negative patients [hazard ratio (HR) 2.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00-4.54; P = 0.049]. Among CD8 + -tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte-positive cases, the overall survival of PD-L1-positive patients was significantly poorer than that of PD-L1-negative patients (HR 3.84, 95% CI 1.59-10.35; P = 0.003). Univariate and multivariate analyses indicated that PD-L1 expression was an independent predictive poor prognostic factor in patients with PDAC. PD-L1 expression appears to be an important prognostic factor in patients with PDAC who underwent surgical resection.

Systematic review of current prognostication systems for primary gastrointestinal stromal tumors.

PubMed

Khoo, Chun Yuet; Chai, Xun; Quek, Richard; Teo, Melissa C C; Goh, Brian K P

2018-04-01

The advent of tyrosine kinase inhibitors as adjuvant therapy has revolutionized the management of GIST and emphasized the need for accurate prognostication systems. Numerous prognostication systems have been proposed for GIST but at present it remains unknown which system is superior. The present systematic review aims to summarize current prognostication systems for primary treatment-naive GIST. A literature review of the Pubmed and Embase databases was performed to identify all published articles in English, from the 1st January 2002 to 28th Feb 2017, reporting on clinical prognostication systems of GIST. Twenty-three articles on GIST prognostication systems were included. These systems were classified as categorical systems, which stratify patients into risk groups, or continuous systems, which provide an individualized form of risk assessment. There were 16 categorical systems in total. There were 4 modifications of the National Institute of Health (NIH) system, 2 modifications of Armed Forces Institute of Pathology (AFIP) criteria and 3 modifications of Joensuu (modified NIH) criteria. Of the 7 continuous systems, there were 3 prognostic nomograms, 3 mathematical models and 1 prognostic heat/contour maps. Tumor size, location and mitotic count remain the main variables used in these systems. Numerous prognostication systems have been proposed for the risk stratification of GISTs. The most widely used systems today are the NIH, Joensuu modified NIH, AFIP and the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center nomogram. More validation and comparison studies are required to determine the optimal prognostication system for GIST. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd, BASO ~ The Association for Cancer Surgery, and the European Society of Surgical Oncology. All rights reserved.

On the Development and Phenomenology of Physical-Psychological Impairments during Childhood.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suhrweier, Horst

1987-01-01

A longitudinal study of 579 German children, aged 3-4 when the study began, examined incidence rates for developmental deviance and to assist with prognostic educational decisions. About 20% of the children were found to be developmentally deviant, and most of the developmentally deviant children could be identified at a preschool age. (JDD)

Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group

PubMed Central

Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H.; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A. N.; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L.; Bennett, John M.; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L.; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M.; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R.; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

2015-01-01

International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%–20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34+) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34+ peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34+ blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). PMID:25344522

Prognostic importance of DNA ploidy in non-endometrioid, high-risk endometrial carcinomas.

PubMed

Sorbe, Bengt

2016-03-01

The present study investigated the predictive and prognostic impact of DNA ploidy together with other well-known prognostic factors in a series of non-endometrioid, high-risk endometrial carcinomas. From a complete consecutive series of 4,543 endometrial carcinomas of International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stages I-IV, 94 serous carcinomas, 48 clear cell carcinomas and 231 carcinosarcomas were selected as a non-endometrioid, high-risk group for further studies regarding prognosis. The impact of DNA ploidy, as assessed by flow cytometry, was of particular focus. The age of the patients, FIGO stage, depth of myometrial infiltration and tumor expression of p53 were also included in the analyses (univariate and multivariate). In the complete series of cases, the recurrence rate was 37%, and the 5-year overall survival rate was 39% with no difference between the three histological subtypes. The primary cure rate (78%) was also similar for all tumor types studied. DNA ploidy was a significant predictive factor (on univariate analysis) for primary tumor cure rate, and a prognostic factor for survival rate (on univariate and multivariate analyses). The predictive and prognostic impact of DNA ploidy was higher in carcinosarcomas than in serous and clear cell carcinomas. In the majority of multivariate analyses, FIGO stage and depth of myometrial infiltration were the most important predictive (tumor recurrence) and prognostic (survival rate) factors. DNA ploidy status is a less important predictive and prognostic factor in non-endometrioid, high-risk endometrial carcinomas than in the common endometrioid carcinomas, in which FIGO and nuclear grade also are highly significant and important factors.

PREDICT: a new UK prognostic model that predicts survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer.

PubMed

Wishart, Gordon C; Azzato, Elizabeth M; Greenberg, David C; Rashbass, Jem; Kearins, Olive; Lawrence, Gill; Caldas, Carlos; Pharoah, Paul D P

2010-01-01

The aim of this study was to develop and validate a prognostication model to predict overall and breast cancer specific survival for women treated for early breast cancer in the UK. Using the Eastern Cancer Registration and Information Centre (ECRIC) dataset, information was collated for 5,694 women who had surgery for invasive breast cancer in East Anglia from 1999 to 2003. Breast cancer mortality models for oestrogen receptor (ER) positive and ER negative tumours were derived from these data using Cox proportional hazards, adjusting for prognostic factors and mode of cancer detection (symptomatic versus screen-detected). An external dataset of 5,468 patients from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit (WMCIU) was used for validation. Differences in overall actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (18.9% vs. 19.0%) and WMCIU (17.5% vs. 18.3%) with area under receiver-operator-characteristic curves (AUC) of 0.81 and 0.79 respectively. Differences in breast cancer specific actual and predicted mortality were <1% at eight years for ECRIC (12.9% vs. 13.5%) and <1.5% at eight years for WMCIU (12.2% vs. 13.6%) with AUC of 0.84 and 0.82 respectively. Model calibration was good for both ER positive and negative models although the ER positive model provided better discrimination (AUC 0.82) than ER negative (AUC 0.75). We have developed a prognostication model for early breast cancer based on UK cancer registry data that predicts breast cancer survival following surgery for invasive breast cancer and includes mode of detection for the first time. The model is well calibrated, provides a high degree of discrimination and has been validated in a second UK patient cohort.

Upper digestive bleeding in cirrhosis. Post-therapeutic outcome and prognostic indicators.

PubMed

D'Amico, Gennaro; De Franchis, Roberto

2003-09-01

Several treatments have been proven to be effective for variceal bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. The aim of this multicenter, prospective, cohort study was to assess how these treatments are used in clinical practice and what are the posttherapeutic prognosis and prognostic indicators of upper digestive bleeding in patients with cirrhosis. A training set of 291 and a test set of 174 bleeding cirrhotic patients were included. Treatment was according to the preferences of each center and the follow-up period was 6 weeks. Predictive rules for 5-day failure (uncontrolled bleeding, rebleeding, or death) and 6-week mortality were developed by the logistic model in the training set and validated in the test set. Initial treatment controlled bleeding in 90% of patients, including vasoactive drugs in 27%, endoscopic therapy in 10%, combined (endoscopic and vasoactive) in 45%, balloon tamponade alone in 1%, and none in 17%. The 5-day failure rate was 13%, 6-week rebleeding was 17%, and mortality was 20%. Corresponding findings for variceal versus nonvariceal bleeding were 15% versus 7% (P =.034), 19% versus 10% (P =.019), and 20% versus 15% (P =.22). Active bleeding on endoscopy, hematocrit levels, aminotransferase levels, Child-Pugh class, and portal vein thrombosis were significant predictors of 5-day failure; alcohol-induced etiology, bilirubin, albumin, encephalopathy, and hepatocarcinoma were predictors of 6-week mortality. Prognostic reassessment including blood transfusions improved the predictive accuracy. All the developed prognostic models were superior to the Child-Pugh score. In conclusion, prognosis of digestive bleeding in cirrhosis has much improved over the past 2 decades. Initial treatment stops bleeding in 90% of patients. Accurate predictive rules are provided for early recognition of high-risk patients.

Prognostic Factors for Neurologic Outcome in Patients with Carotid Artery Stenting

PubMed Central

Hung, Chi-Sheng; Lin, Mao-Shin; Chen, Ying-Hsien; Huang, Ching-Chang; Li, Hung-Yuan; Kao, Hsien-Li

2016-01-01

Background Carotid artery stenting (CAS) is a valid treatment for patients with carotid artery stenosis. The long-term outcome and prognostic factors in Asian population after CAS are not clear. This study aimed to identify the prognostic factors among Asian patients who have undergone CAS. Methods We retrospectively analyzed 246 patients with CAS. Annual carotid duplex ultrasound was used to identify restenosis. Peri-procedural complications, restenosis, neurologic outcomes, and mortality were recorded. Cox regression analyses were used to identify prognostic factors. Results The mean follow-up time was 49.2 months. Procedural success was achieved in 237 patients (98.3%), and protection devices were used in 208 patients (84.5%). Within 30 days of CAS, 13 (4.3% per procedure) peri-procedural complications occurred. During the follow-up period, 24 (9.7%) patients developed restenosis, and 37 (15.0%) developed ischemic strokes. In a multiple logistic regression analysis, head and neck radiotherapy [hazard ratio (HR) = 9.9, 95% confidence interval (CI), 3.38-29.1, p < .001], stent diameter (HR = 0.72, 95% CI, 0.58-0.89, p = .003), and predilatation (HR = 3.08 95% CI, 1.21-7.81, p = .018) were independent predictors for restenosis. In Cox regression analysis, hypercholesterolemia (HR = 0.25, 95% CI, 0.07-0.94, p = .04), head and neck radiotherapy (HR = 6.2, 95% CI, 1.8-21.3, p = .004), and restenosis (HR = 3.6, 95% CI, 1.1-11.18, p = .04) were predictors for recurrent ipsilateral ischemic stroke. Conclusions CAS provides reliable long-term results in Asian patients with carotid stenosis. Restenosis is associated with an increased rate of recurrent stroke and should be monitored carefully following CAS. PMID:27122951

Moderate Traumatic Brain Injury: Clinical Characteristics and a Prognostic Model of 12-Month Outcome.

PubMed

Einarsen, Cathrine Elisabeth; van der Naalt, Joukje; Jacobs, Bram; Follestad, Turid; Moen, Kent Gøran; Vik, Anne; Håberg, Asta Kristine; Skandsen, Toril

2018-06-01

Patients with moderate traumatic brain injury (TBI) often are studied together with patients with severe TBI, even though the expected outcome of the former is better. Therefore, we aimed to describe patient characteristics and 12-month outcomes, and to develop a prognostic model based on admission data, specifically for patients with moderate TBI. Patients with Glasgow Coma Scale scores of 9-13 and age ≥16 years were prospectively enrolled in 2 level I trauma centers in Europe. Glasgow Outcome Scale Extended (GOSE) score was assessed at 12 months. A prognostic model predicting moderate disability or worse (GOSE score ≤6), as opposed to a good recovery, was fitted by penalized regression. Model performance was evaluated by area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristics curves. Of the 395 enrolled patients, 81% had intracranial lesions on head computed tomography, and 71% were admitted to an intensive care unit. At 12 months, 44% were moderately disabled or worse (GOSE score ≤6), whereas 8% were severely disabled and 6% died (GOSE score ≤4). Older age, lower Glasgow Coma Scale score, no day-of-injury alcohol intoxication, presence of a subdural hematoma, occurrence of hypoxia and/or hypotension, and preinjury disability were significant predictors of GOSE score ≤6 (area under the curve = 0.80). Patients with moderate TBI exhibit characteristics of significant brain injury. Although few patients died or experienced severe disability, 44% did not experience good recovery, indicating that follow-up is needed. The model is a first step in development of prognostic models for moderate TBI that are valid across centers. Copyright © 2018 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nomograms Predicting Progression-Free Survival, Overall Survival, and Pelvic Recurrence in Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer Developed From an Analysis of Identifiable Prognostic Factors in Patients From NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group Randomized Trials of Chemoradiotherapy

PubMed Central

Rose, Peter G.; Java, James; Whitney, Charles W.; Stehman, Frederick B.; Lanciano, Rachelle; Thomas, Gillian M.; DiSilvestro, Paul A.

2015-01-01

Purpose To evaluate the prognostic factors in locally advanced cervical cancer limited to the pelvis and develop nomograms for 2-year progression-free survival (PFS), 5-year overall survival (OS), and pelvic recurrence. Patients and Methods We retrospectively reviewed 2,042 patients with locally advanced cervical carcinoma enrolled onto Gynecologic Oncology Group clinical trials of concurrent cisplatin-based chemotherapy and radiotherapy. Nomograms for 2-year PFS, five-year OS, and pelvic recurrence were created as visualizations of Cox proportional hazards regression models. The models were validated by bootstrap-corrected, relatively unbiased estimates of discrimination and calibration. Results Multivariable analysis identified prognostic factors including histology, race/ethnicity, performance status, tumor size, International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics stage, tumor grade, pelvic node status, and treatment with concurrent cisplatin-based chemotherapy. PFS, OS, and pelvic recurrence nomograms had bootstrap-corrected concordance indices of 0.62, 0.64, and 0.73, respectively, and were well calibrated. Conclusion Prognostic factors were used to develop nomograms for 2-year PFS, 5-year OS, and pelvic recurrence for locally advanced cervical cancer clinically limited to the pelvis treated with concurrent cisplatin-based chemotherapy and radiotherapy. These nomograms can be used to better estimate individual and collective outcomes. PMID:25732170

A Linearized Prognostic Cloud Scheme in NASAs Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation Tools

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Holdaway, Daniel; Errico, Ronald M.; Gelaro, Ronald; Kim, Jong G.; Mahajan, Rahul

2015-01-01

A linearized prognostic cloud scheme has been developed to accompany the linearized convection scheme recently implemented in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System data assimilation tools. The linearization, developed from the nonlinear cloud scheme, treats cloud variables prognostically so they are subject to linearized advection, diffusion, generation, and evaporation. Four linearized cloud variables are modeled, the ice and water phases of clouds generated by large-scale condensation and, separately, by detraining convection. For each species the scheme models their sources, sublimation, evaporation, and autoconversion. Large-scale, anvil and convective species of precipitation are modeled and evaporated. The cloud scheme exhibits linearity and realistic perturbation growth, except around the generation of clouds through large-scale condensation. Discontinuities and steep gradients are widely used here and severe problems occur in the calculation of cloud fraction. For data assimilation applications this poor behavior is controlled by replacing this part of the scheme with a perturbation model. For observation impacts, where efficiency is less of a concern, a filtering is developed that examines the Jacobian. The replacement scheme is only invoked if Jacobian elements or eigenvalues violate a series of tuned constants. The linearized prognostic cloud scheme is tested by comparing the linear and nonlinear perturbation trajectories for 6-, 12-, and 24-h forecast times. The tangent linear model performs well and perturbations of clouds are well captured for the lead times of interest.

Development of an On-board Failure Diagnostics and Prognostics System for Solid Rocket Booster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.; Luchinsky, Dmitry G.; Osipov, Vyatcheslav V.; Timucin, Dogan A.; Uckun, Serdar

2009-01-01

We develop a case breach model for the on-board fault diagnostics and prognostics system for subscale solid-rocket boosters (SRBs). The model development was motivated by recent ground firing tests, in which a deviation of measured time-traces from the predicted time-series was observed. A modified model takes into account the nozzle ablation, including the effect of roughness of the nozzle surface, the geometry of the fault, and erosion and burning of the walls of the hole in the metal case. The derived low-dimensional performance model (LDPM) of the fault can reproduce the observed time-series data very well. To verify the performance of the LDPM we build a FLUENT model of the case breach fault and demonstrate a good agreement between theoretical predictions based on the analytical solution of the model equations and the results of the FLUENT simulations. We then incorporate the derived LDPM into an inferential Bayesian framework and verify performance of the Bayesian algorithm for the diagnostics and prognostics of the case breach fault. It is shown that the obtained LDPM allows one to track parameters of the SRB during the flight in real time, to diagnose case breach fault, and to predict its values in the future. The application of the method to fault diagnostics and prognostics (FD&P) of other SRB faults modes is discussed.

Advanced Ground Systems Maintenance Prognostics Project

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Perotti, Jose M.

2015-01-01

The project implements prognostics capabilities to predict when a component system or subsystem will no longer meet desired functional or performance criteria, called the end of life. The capability also provides an assessment of the remaining useful life of a hardware component. The project enables the delivery of system health advisories to ground system operators. This project will use modeling techniques and algorithms to assess components' health andpredict remaining life for such components. The prognostics capability being developed will beused:during the design phase and during pre/post operations to conduct planning and analysis ofsystem design, maintenance & logistics plans, and system/mission operations plansduring real-time operations to monitor changes to components' health and assess their impacton operations.This capability will be interfaced to Ground Operations' command and control system as a part ofthe AGSM project to help assure system availability and mission success. The initial modelingeffort for this capability will be developed for Liquid Oxygen ground loading applications.

A New Multivariate Approach for Prognostics Based on Extreme Learning Machine and Fuzzy Clustering.

PubMed

Javed, Kamran; Gouriveau, Rafael; Zerhouni, Noureddine

2015-12-01

Prognostics is a core process of prognostics and health management (PHM) discipline, that estimates the remaining useful life (RUL) of a degrading machinery to optimize its service delivery potential. However, machinery operates in a dynamic environment and the acquired condition monitoring data are usually noisy and subject to a high level of uncertainty/unpredictability, which complicates prognostics. The complexity further increases, when there is absence of prior knowledge about ground truth (or failure definition). For such issues, data-driven prognostics can be a valuable solution without deep understanding of system physics. This paper contributes a new data-driven prognostics approach namely, an "enhanced multivariate degradation modeling," which enables modeling degrading states of machinery without assuming a homogeneous pattern. In brief, a predictability scheme is introduced to reduce the dimensionality of the data. Following that, the proposed prognostics model is achieved by integrating two new algorithms namely, the summation wavelet-extreme learning machine and subtractive-maximum entropy fuzzy clustering to show evolution of machine degradation by simultaneous predictions and discrete state estimation. The prognostics model is equipped with a dynamic failure threshold assignment procedure to estimate RUL in a realistic manner. To validate the proposition, a case study is performed on turbofan engines data from PHM challenge 2008 (NASA), and results are compared with recent publications.

New Breast Cancer Recursive Partitioning Analysis Prognostic Index in Patients With Newly Diagnosed Brain Metastases

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Niwinska, Anna, E-mail: alphaonetau@poczta.onet.pl; Murawska, Magdalena

2012-04-01

Purpose: The aim of the study was to present a new breast cancer recursive partitioning analysis (RPA) prognostic index for patients with newly diagnosed brain metastases as a guide in clinical decision making. Methods and Materials: A prospectively collected group of 441 consecutive patients with breast cancer and brain metastases treated between the years 2003 and 2009 was assessed. Prognostic factors significant for univariate analysis were included into RPA. Results: Three prognostic classes of a new breast cancer RPA prognostic index were selected. The median survival of patients within prognostic Classes I, II, and III was 29, 9, and 2.4more » months, respectively (p < 0.0001). Class I included patients with one or two brain metastases, without extracranial disease or with controlled extracranial disease, and with Karnofsky performance status (KPS) of 100. Class III included patients with multiple brain metastases with KPS of {<=}60. Class II included all other cases. Conclusions: The breast cancer RPA prognostic index is an easy and valuable tool for use in clinical practice. It can select patients who require aggressive treatment and those in whom whole-brain radiotherapy or symptomatic therapy is the most reasonable option. An individual approach is required for patients from prognostic Class II.« less

[What is the prognostic significance of histomorphology in small cell lung carcinoma?].

PubMed

Facilone, F; Cimmino, A; Assennato, G; Sardelli, P; Colucci, G A; Resta, L

1993-01-01

What is the prognostic significant of the histomorphology in the small cell carcinomas of the lung? After the WHO classification of the lung cancer (1981), several studies criticized the subdivision of the small cell carcinoma in three sub-types (oat-cell, intermediate cell and combined types). The role of histology in the prognostic predition has been devaluated. In order to verify the prognostic value of the morphology of the small cell types of lung cancer, we performed a multivariate analysis in 62 patients. The survival rate was analytically compared with the following parameters: nuclear maximum diameter, nuclear form, nuclear chromatism, chromatine distribution, presence of nucleolus, evidence of cytoplasm. The results showed that none of these parameters are able to express a prognostic value. According to the recent studies, we think that the small cell carcinoma of the lung is a neoplasia with a multiform histologic pattern. Differences observed in clinical management are not correlate with the morphology, but with other biological parameters still unknown.

Towards evidence-based emergency medicine: best BETs from the Manchester Royal Infirmary. BET 4: Prognostic value of B-type natriuretic peptides (BNP and NT-proBNP) in community-acquired pneumonia.

PubMed

Hodgson, David; Nee, Patrick; Sultan, Laith

2012-10-01

A short cut review was carried out to establish the prognostic value of B-type natriuretic peptides (BNP and NT-proBNP) in community acquired pneumonia (CAP). Three cohort studies were directly relevant to the question. The author, date and country of publication, patient group studied, study type, relevant outcomes, results and study weaknesses of these papers are tabulated. The clinical bottom line was that B-type natriuretic peptides have prognostic value in CAP but further prospective studies were needed to assess their application in clinical practice.

Correlation between NM23 protein overexpression and prognostic value and clinicopathologic features of ovarian cancer: a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Fang, Jie; Guo, Xueke; Zheng, Bo; Han, Wei; Chen, Xia; Zhu, Jiawei; Xie, Bing; Liu, Jiajia; Luan, Xiaojin; Yan, Yidan; He, Zeyu; Li, Hong; Qiao, Chen; Yu, Jun

2018-02-01

The prognostic value and clinicopathological features of NM23 (non-metastasis 23) have previously been assessed, but the results are controversial. Here, we attempted to clarify the correlation between NM23 expression and its prognostic value and the clinicopathological features in ovarian cancer (OC). The relevant studies were identified using PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science. We calculated the pooled odds ratio (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and clinicopathological features. We used OS to evaluate the prognostic value of NM23 expression in patients with OC. Subgroup analyses were used to explore the source of heterogeneity. We included 10 studies involving 894 patients in our assessment of the association between NM23 expression and OS for OC. Our data indicated that NM23 expression was not associated with improved OS (OR 0.83, 95% CI 0.41-1.68, P = 0.61) or PFS (OR 0.7, 95% CI 0.39-1.24, P = 0.22). Elevated NM23 expression was associated with differentiation grade (OR 0.35, 95% CI 0.2-0.6, P = 0.0002) and N status (OR 0.33, 95% CI 0.14-0.78, P = 0.01), whereas there was no significant difference between NM23 expression and tumor stage (OR 1.1, 95% CI 0.45-2.66, P = 0.84). Subgroup analysis did not reveal any potential source of heterogeneity. No obvious publication bias was found. In OC, there is poor statistical significance between NM23 expression and OS and PFS, but NM23 expression is related to differentiation grade and N status. This meta-analysis reveals that NM23 expression is a potential factor of poor prognosis in OC. The prognostic role of NM23 in different OC stages in combination with the clinical characteristics suggests a novel approach for developing future therapeutic targets.

Evaluation of two prognostic indices for adult T cell leukemia/lymphoma in the subtropical endemic area, Okinawa, Japan.

PubMed

Tamaki, Keita; Morishima, Satoko; Nomura, Shogo; Nishi, Yukiko; Nakachi, Sawako; Kitamura, Sakiko; Uchibori, Sachie; Tomori, Shouhei; Hanashiro, Taeko; Shimabukuro, Natsuki; Tedokon, Iori; Morichika, Kazuho; Taira, Naoya; Tomoyose, Takeaki; Miyagi, Takashi; Karimata, Kaori; Ohama, Masayo; Yamanoha, Atsushi; Tamaki, Kazumitsu; Hayashi, Masaki; Uchihara, Jun-Nosuke; Ohshiro, Kazuiku; Asakura, Yoshitaka; Kuba-Miyara, Megumi; Karube, Kennosuke; Fukushima, Takuya; Masuzaki, Hiroaki

2018-05-17

Aggressive adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (ATL) has an extremely poor prognosis and is hyperendemic in Okinawa, Japan. This study evaluated two prognostic indices (PIs) for aggressive ATL, the ATL-PI and Japan Clinical Oncology Group (JCOG)-PI, in a cohort from Okinawa. The PIs were developed using two different Japanese cohorts that included few patients from Okinawa. The endpoint was overall survival (OS). Multivariable Cox regression analyses in the cohort of 433 patients revealed that all seven factors for calculating each PI were statistically significant prognostic predictors. Three-year OS rates for ATL-PI were 35.9% (low-risk, n=66), 10.4% (intermediate-risk, n=256), and 1.6% (high-risk, n=111), and those for JCOG-PI were 22.4% (moderate-risk, n=176) and 5.3% (high-risk, n=257). The JCOG-PI moderate-risk group included both the ATL-PI low- and intermediate-risk groups. ATL-PI more clearly identified the low-risk patient subgroup than JCOG-PI. To evaluate the external validity of the two PIs, we also assessed prognostic discriminability among 159 patients who loosely met the eligibility criteria of a previous clinical trial. Three-year OS rates for ATL-PI were 34.5% (low-risk, n=42), 9.2% (intermediate-risk, n=109), and 12.5% (high-risk, n = 8). Those for JCOG-PI were 22.4% (moderate-risk, n=95) and 7.6% (high-risk, n=64). The low-risk ATL-PI group had a better prognosis than the JCOG-PI moderate-risk group, suggesting that ATL-PI would be more useful than JCOG-PI for establishing and examining novel treatment strategies for ATL patients with a better prognosis. In addition, strongyloidiasis, previously suggested to be associated with ATL-related deaths in Okinawa, was not a prognostic factor in this study. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Expression of connective tissue growth factor in male breast cancer: clinicopathologic correlations and prognostic value.

PubMed

Lacle, Miangela M; van Diest, Paul J; Goldschmeding, Roel; van der Wall, Elsken; Nguyen, Tri Q

2015-01-01

Connective tissue growth factor (CTGF/CCN2) is a member of the CCN family of secreted proteins that are believed to play an important role in the development of neoplasia. In particular, CTGF has been reported to play an important role in mammary tumorigenesis and to have prognostic value in female breast cancer (FBC). The aim of the present study was to investigate clinicopathologic correlations and prognostic value of CTGF in male breast cancer (MBC) and to compare these findings with FBC. For this, we studied CTGF protein expression by immunohistochemistry in 109 MBC cases and 75 FBC cases. In MBC, stromal CTGF expression was seen in the majority of the cases 78% (85/109) with high expression in 31/109 cases (28.4%), but expression in tumor cells was only seen in 9.2% (10/109) of cases. High stromal CTGF expression correlated with high grade and high proliferation index (>15%) assessed by MIB-1 immunohistochemical staining. CTGF expression in tumor epithelial cells did not correlate with any of the clinicopathologic features. In FBC, stromal CTGF expression positively correlated with mitotic count and tumor CTGF expression was associated with triple negative status of the tumor (p = 0.002). Neither stromal nor tumor epithelial cell CTGF expression had prognostic value in MBC and FBC. In conclusion, stromal CTGF expression was seen in a high percentage of MBC and was correlated with high grade and high proliferation index. In view of the important role of the microenvironment in cancer progression, this might suggest that stromal CTGF could be an interesting target for novel therapies and molecular imaging. However, the lack of association with prognosis warrants caution. The potential role of CTGF as a therapeutic target for triple negative FBC deserves to be further studied.

Prognostic value of tumour regression grade in locally advanced rectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Kong, J C; Guerra, G R; Warrier, S K; Lynch, A Craig; Michael, M; Ngan, S Y; Phillips, W; Ramsay, G; Heriot, A G

2018-03-27

The current standard of care for locally advanced rectal cancer involves neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by total mesorectal excision. There is a spectrum of response to neoadjuvant therapy; however, the prognostic value of tumour regression grade (TRG) in predicting disease-free survival (DFS) or overall survival (OS) is inconsistent in the literature. This study was performed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) guidelines. A systematic search was undertaken using Ovid MEDLINE, Embase and Google Scholar. Inclusion criteria were Stage II and III locally advanced rectal cancer treated with long-course CRT followed by radical surgery. The aim of the meta-analysis was to assess the prognostic implication of each TRG for rectal cancer following neoadjuvant CRT. Long-term prognosis was assessed. The main outcome measures were DFS and OS. A random effects model was performed to pool the hazard ratio (HR) from all included studies. There were 4875 patients from 17 studies, with 775 (15.9%) attaining a pathological complete response (pCR) and 719 (29.9%) with no response. A significant association with OS was identified from a pooled-estimated HR for pCR (HR = 0.47, P = 0.002) and nonresponding tumours (HR = 2.97; P < 0.001). Previously known tumour characteristics, such as ypN, lymphovascular invasion and perineural invasion, were also significantly associated with DFS and OS, with estimated pooled HRs of 2.2, 1.4 and 2.3, respectively. In conclusion, the degree of TRG was of prognostic value in predicting long-term outcomes. The current challenge is the development of a high-validity tests to predict pCR. Colorectal Disease © 2018 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

FCG (FLIPI, Charlson comorbidity index, and histological grade) score is superior to FLIPI in advanced follicular lymphoma.

PubMed

Mihaljevic, Biljana; Jelicic, Jelena; Andjelic, Bosko; Antic, Darko; Markovic, Olivera; Petkovic, Ivan; Jovanovic, Maja Perunicic; Trajkovic, Goran; Bila, Jelena; Djurasinovic, Vladislava; Sretenovic, Aleksandra; Vukovic, Vojin; Smiljanic, Mihailo; Balint, Milena Todorovic

2016-12-01

The Follicular Lymphoma International Prognostic Index (FLIPI) is widely used in the identification of risk groups among follicular lymphoma (FL) patients. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the prognostic value of FLIPI combined with the Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) and histological grade of lymphoma. 224 newly diagnosed FL patients (median age 56 years) treated with immunochemotherapy were retrospectively analysed. Low FLIPI had 21.0 % of patients, intermediate 28.1 % and high 46.9 %. 50.9 % of patients had no comorbidities. Only 7.1 % of patients had a high CCI score (≥2), while 25.9 % of patients were histological grade 3. Parameters that influenced overall survival were evaluated using Cox regression analysis, in which CCI, FLIPI and histological grade (p < 0.05) retained prognostic significance. By combining these parameters, we have developed the FCG score, which incorporates FLIPI, CCI, and histological grade. This score defines three risk categories (low: 41.5 %; intermediate: 37.5 %; high: 13.4 %), associated with significantly different survival (p < 0.0001); this consequently improves discriminative power by 9.1 % compared to FLIPI. FCG score represents a possible new prognostic index, highlighting the role of the patient's clinical state and the histological characteristics of disease, as indicated by comorbidity index and histological grade of lymphoma.

Updating and prospective validation of a prognostic model for high sickness absence.

PubMed

Roelen, C A M; Heymans, M W; Twisk, J W R; van Rhenen, W; Pallesen, S; Bjorvatn, B; Moen, B E; Magerøy, N

2015-01-01

To further develop and validate a Dutch prognostic model for high sickness absence (SA). Three-wave longitudinal cohort study of 2,059 Norwegian nurses. The Dutch prognostic model was used to predict high SA among Norwegian nurses at wave 2. Subsequently, the model was updated by adding person-related (age, gender, marital status, children at home, and coping strategies), health-related (BMI, physical activity, smoking, and caffeine and alcohol intake), and work-related (job satisfaction, job demands, decision latitude, social support at work, and both work-to-family and family-to-work spillover) variables. The updated model was then prospectively validated for predictions at wave 3. 1,557 (77 %) nurses had complete data at wave 2 and 1,342 (65 %) at wave 3. The risk of high SA was under-estimated by the Dutch model, but discrimination between high-risk and low-risk nurses was fair after re-calibration to the Norwegian data. Gender, marital status, BMI, physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, job satisfaction, job demands, decision latitude, support at the workplace, and work-to-family spillover were identified as potential predictors of high SA. However, these predictors did not improve the model's discriminative ability, which remained fair at wave 3. The prognostic model correctly identifies 73 % of Norwegian nurses at risk of high SA, although additional predictors are needed before the model can be used to screen working populations for risk of high SA.

Computational analysis identifies putative prognostic biomarkers of pathological scarring in skin wounds.

PubMed

Nagaraja, Sridevi; Chen, Lin; DiPietro, Luisa A; Reifman, Jaques; Mitrophanov, Alexander Y

2018-02-20

Pathological scarring in wounds is a prevalent clinical outcome with limited prognostic options. The objective of this study was to investigate whether cellular signaling proteins could be used as prognostic biomarkers of pathological scarring in traumatic skin wounds. We used our previously developed and validated computational model of injury-initiated wound healing to simulate the time courses for platelets, 6 cell types, and 21 proteins involved in the inflammatory and proliferative phases of wound healing. Next, we analysed thousands of simulated wound-healing scenarios to identify those that resulted in pathological (i.e., excessive) scarring. Then, we identified candidate proteins that were elevated (or decreased) at the early stages of wound healing in those simulations and could therefore serve as predictive biomarkers of pathological scarring outcomes. Finally, we performed logistic regression analysis and calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve to quantitatively assess the predictive accuracy of the model-identified putative biomarkers. We identified three proteins (interleukin-10, tissue inhibitor of matrix metalloproteinase-1, and fibronectin) whose levels were elevated in pathological scars as early as 2 weeks post-wounding and could predict a pathological scarring outcome occurring 40 days after wounding with 80% accuracy. Our method for predicting putative prognostic wound-outcome biomarkers may serve as an effective means to guide the identification of proteins predictive of pathological scarring.

Tumor-adjacent tissue co-expression profile analysis reveals pro-oncogenic ribosomal gene signature for prognosis of resectable hepatocellular carcinoma.

PubMed

Grinchuk, Oleg V; Yenamandra, Surya P; Iyer, Ramakrishnan; Singh, Malay; Lee, Hwee Kuan; Lim, Kiat Hon; Chow, Pierce Kah-Hoe; Kuznetsov, Vladamir A

2018-01-01

Currently, molecular markers are not used when determining the prognosis and treatment strategy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In the present study, we proposed that the identification of common pro-oncogenic pathways in primary tumors (PT) and adjacent non-malignant tissues (AT) typically used to predict HCC patient risks may result in HCC biomarker discovery. We examined the genome-wide mRNA expression profiles of paired PT and AT samples from 321 HCC patients. The workflow integrated differentially expressed gene selection, gene ontology enrichment, computational classification, survival predictions, image analysis and experimental validation methods. We developed a 24-ribosomal gene-based HCC classifier (RGC), which is prognostically significant in both PT and AT. The RGC gene overexpression in PT was associated with a poor prognosis in the training (hazard ratio = 8.2, P = 9.4 × 10 -6 ) and cross-cohort validation (hazard ratio = 2.63, P = 0.004) datasets. The multivariate survival analysis demonstrated the significant and independent prognostic value of the RGC. The RGC displayed a significant prognostic value in AT of the training (hazard ratio = 5.0, P = 0.03) and cross-validation (hazard ratio = 1.9, P = 0.03) HCC groups, confirming the accuracy and robustness of the RGC. Our experimental and bioinformatics analyses suggested a key role for c-MYC in the pro-oncogenic pattern of ribosomal biogenesis co-regulation in PT and AT. Microarray, quantitative RT-PCR and quantitative immunohistochemical studies of the PT showed that DKK1 in PT is the perspective biomarker for poor HCC outcomes. The common co-transcriptional pattern of ribosome biogenesis genes in PT and AT from HCC patients suggests a new scalable prognostic system, as supported by the model of tumor-like metabolic redirection/assimilation in non-malignant AT. The RGC, comprising 24 ribosomal genes, is introduced as a robust and reproducible prognostic model for stratifying HCC patient risks. The adjacent non-malignant liver tissue alone, or in combination with HCC tissue biopsy, could be an important target for developing predictive and monitoring strategies, as well as evidence-based therapeutic interventions, that aim to reduce the risk of post-surgery relapse in HCC patients. © 2017 The Authors. Published by FEBS Press and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global Analysis, Interpretation and Modelling: An Earth Systems Modelling Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Moore, Berrien, III; Sahagian, Dork

1997-01-01

The Goal of the GAIM is: To advance the study of the coupled dynamics of the Earth system using as tools both data and models; to develop a strategy for the rapid development, evaluation, and application of comprehensive prognostic models of the Global Biogeochemical Subsystem which could eventually be linked with models of the Physical-Climate Subsystem; to propose, promote, and facilitate experiments with existing models or by linking subcomponent models, especially those associated with IGBP Core Projects and with WCRP efforts. Such experiments would be focused upon resolving interface issues and questions associated with developing an understanding of the prognostic behavior of key processes; to clarify key scientific issues facing the development of Global Biogeochemical Models and the coupling of these models to General Circulation Models; to assist the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) process by conducting timely studies that focus upon elucidating important unresolved scientific issues associated with the changing biogeochemical cycles of the planet and upon the role of the biosphere in the physical-climate subsystem, particularly its role in the global hydrological cycle; and to advise the SC-IGBP on progress in developing comprehensive Global Biogeochemical Models and to maintain scientific liaison with the WCRP Steering Group on Global Climate Modelling.

Influence of phenotype at diagnosis and of other potential prognostic factors on the course of inflammatory bowel disease.

PubMed

Romberg-Camps, M J L; Dagnelie, P C; Kester, A D M; Hesselink-van de Kruijs, M A M; Cilissen, M; Engels, L G J B; Van Deursen, C; Hameeteman, W H A; Wolters, F L; Russel, M G V M; Stockbrügger, R W

2009-02-01

Disease course in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is variable and difficult to predict. To optimize prognosis, it is of interest to identify phenotypic characteristics at disease onset and other prognostic factors that predict disease course. The aim of this study was to evaluate such factors in a population-based IBD group. IBD patients diagnosed between 1 January 1991 and 1 January 2003 were included. A follow-up questionnaire was developed and medical records were reviewed. Patients were classified according to phenotype at diagnosis and risk factors were registered. Disease severity, cumulative medication use, and "surgical" and "nonsurgical" recurrence rates were calculated as outcome parameters. In total, 476 Crohn's disease (CD), 630 ulcerative colitis (UC), and 81 indeterminate colitis (IC) patients were diagnosed. In CD (mean follow-up 7.6 years), 50% had undergone resective surgery. In UC (mean follow-up 7 years), colectomy rate was 8.3%. First year cumulative recurrence rates per 100 patient-years for CD, UC, and IC were 53, 44, and 42%, respectively. In CD, small bowel localization and stricturing disease were negative prognostic factors for surgery, as was young age. Overall recurrence rate was increased by young age and current smoking. In UC, extensive colitis increased surgical risk. In UC, older age at diagnosis initially increased recurrence risk but was subsequently protective. This population-based IBD study showed high recurrence rates in the first year. In CD, small bowel localization, stricturing disease, and young age were predictive for disease recurrence. In UC, extensive colitis and older age at diagnosis were negative prognostic predictors.

Survival and prognostic factors for hepatocellular carcinoma: an Egyptian multidisciplinary clinic experience.

PubMed

Abdelaziz, Ashraf Omar; Elbaz, Tamer Mahmoud; Shousha, Hend Ibrahim; Ibrahim, Mostafa Mohamed; Rahman El-Shazli, Mostafa Abdel; Abdelmaksoud, Ahmed Hosni; Aziz, Omar Abdel; Zaki, Hisham Atef; Elattar, Inas Anwar; Nabeel, Mohamed Mahmoud

2014-01-01

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a dismal tumor with a high incidence, prevalence and poor prognosis and survival. Management of HCC necessitates multidisciplinary clinics due to the wide heterogeneity in its presentation, different therapeutic options, variable biologic behavior and background presence of chronic liver disease. We studied the different prognostic factors that affected survival of our patients to improve future HCC management and patient survival. This study is performed in a specialized multidisciplinary clinic for HCC in Kasr El Eini Hospital, Cairo University, Egypt. We retrospectively analyzed the different patient and tumor characteristics and the primary mode of management applied to our patients. Further analysis was performed using univariate and multivariate statistics. During the period February 2009 till February 2013, 290 HCC patients presented to our multidisciplinary clinic. They were predominantly males and the mean age was 56.5 ± 7.7 years. All cases developed HCC on top of cirrhosis that was mainly due to HCV (71%). Most of our patients were Child-Pugh A (50%) or B (36.9%) and commonly presented with small single lesions. Transarterial chemoembolization was the most common line of treatment used (32.4%). The overall survival was 79.9% at 6 months, 54.5% at 1 year and 22.4% at 2 years. Serum bilirubin, site of the tumor and type of treatment were the significant independent prognostic factors for survival. Our main prognostic variables are the bilirubin level, the bilobar hepatic affection and the application of specific treatment (either curative or palliative). Multidisciplinary clinics enhance better HCC management.

A new prognostic model for chemotherapy-induced febrile neutropenia.

PubMed

Ahn, Shin; Lee, Yoon-Seon; Lee, Jae-Lyun; Lim, Kyung Soo; Yoon, Sung-Cheol

2016-02-01

The objective of this study was to develop and validate a new prognostic model for febrile neutropenia (FN). This study comprised 1001 episodes of FN: 718 for the derivation set and 283 for the validation set. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed with unfavorable outcome as the primary endpoint and bacteremia as the secondary endpoint. In the derivation set, risk factors for adverse outcomes comprised age ≥ 60 years (2 points), procalcitonin ≥ 0.5 ng/mL (5 points), ECOG performance score ≥ 2 (2 points), oral mucositis grade ≥ 3 (3 points), systolic blood pressure <90 mmHg (3 points), and respiratory rate ≥ 24 breaths/min (3 points). The model stratified patients into three severity classes, with adverse event rates of 6.0 % in class I (score ≤ 2), 27.3 % in class II (score 3-8), and 67.9 % in class III (score ≥ 9). Bacteremia was present in 1.1, 11.5, and 29.8 % of patients in class I, II, and III, respectively. The outcomes of the validation set were similar in each risk class. When the derivation and validation sets were integrated, unfavorable outcomes occurred in 5.9 % of the low-risk group classified by the new prognostic model and in 12.2 % classified by the Multinational Association for Supportive Care in Cancer (MASCC) risk index. With the new prognostic model, we can classify patients with FN into three classes of increasing adverse outcomes and bacteremia. Early discharge would be possible for class I patients, short-term observation could safely manage class II patients, and inpatient admission is warranted for class III patients.

Nottingham Prognostic Index Plus (NPI+): a modern clinical decision making tool in breast cancer.

PubMed

Rakha, E A; Soria, D; Green, A R; Lemetre, C; Powe, D G; Nolan, C C; Garibaldi, J M; Ball, G; Ellis, I O

2014-04-02

Current management of breast cancer (BC) relies on risk stratification based on well-defined clinicopathologic factors. Global gene expression profiling studies have demonstrated that BC comprises distinct molecular classes with clinical relevance. In this study, we hypothesised that molecular features of BC are a key driver of tumour behaviour and when coupled with a novel and bespoke application of established clinicopathologic prognostic variables can predict both clinical outcome and relevant therapeutic options more accurately than existing methods. In the current study, a comprehensive panel of biomarkers with relevance to BC was applied to a large and well-characterised series of BC, using immunohistochemistry and different multivariate clustering techniques, to identify the key molecular classes. Subsequently, each class was further stratified using a set of well-defined prognostic clinicopathologic variables. These variables were combined in formulae to prognostically stratify different molecular classes, collectively known as the Nottingham Prognostic Index Plus (NPI+). The NPI+ was then used to predict outcome in the different molecular classes. Seven core molecular classes were identified using a selective panel of 10 biomarkers. Incorporation of clinicopathologic variables in a second-stage analysis resulted in identification of distinct prognostic groups within each molecular class (NPI+). Outcome analysis showed that using the bespoke NPI formulae for each biological BC class provides improved patient outcome stratification superior to the traditional NPI. This study provides proof-of-principle evidence for the use of NPI+ in supporting improved individualised clinical decision making.

Risk factors for adverse outcomes in older adults with blunt chest trauma: A systematic review.

PubMed

Sawa, Jake; Green, Robert S; Thoma, Brent; Erdogan, Mete; Davis, Philip J

2017-08-11

The objective of this study was to systematically review the published literature for risk factors associated with adverse outcomes in older adults sustaining blunt chest trauma. EMBASE and MEDLINE were searched from inception until March 2017 for prognostic factors associated with adverse outcomes in older adults sustaining blunt chest trauma using a pre-specified search strategy. References were independently screened for inclusion by two reviewers. Study quality was assessed using the Quality in Prognostic Studies tool. Where appropriate, descriptive statistics were used to evaluate study characteristics and predictors of adverse outcomes. Thirteen cohort studies representing 79,313 patients satisfied our selection criteria. Overall, 26 prognostic factors were examined across studies and were reported for morbidity (8 studies), length of stay (7 studies), mortality (6 studies), and loss of independence (1 study). No studies examined patient quality of life or emergency department recidivism. Prognostic factors associated with morbidity and mortality included age, number of rib fractures, and injury severity score. Although age and rib fractures were found to be associated with adverse outcomes in more than 3 studies, meta-analysis was not performed due to heterogeneity amongst included studies in how these variables were measured. While blunt chest wall trauma in older adults is relatively common, the literature on prognostic factors for adverse outcomes in this patient population remains inadequate due to a paucity of high quality studies and lack of consistent reporting standards.

Comparison of two melphalan protocols and evaluation of outcome and prognostic factors in multiple myeloma in dogs

PubMed Central

Fernández, Ricardo

2018-01-01

Background Multiple myeloma (MM) in dogs typically is treated with melphalan. A daily melphalan dosing schedule reportedly is well tolerated and associated with favorable outcome. Although anecdotally a pulse dose regimen has resulted in successful responses, little long‐term outcome and safety data is available regarding this dosing regimen for dogs with MM. Hypothesis/objectives (1) To compare outcome and adverse event profiles between pulse dose and daily dose melphalan schedules and (2) to report prognostic factors in dogs with MM treated with melphalan. We hypothesized that both protocols would have similar outcomes and tolerability. Animals Thirty‐eight client‐owned dogs diagnosed with MM receiving pulse dose (n = 17) or daily dose (n = 21) melphalan. Methods Retrospective cohort study assessing outcome and adverse events in dogs receiving either protocol. Risk factors were evaluated for their prognostic relevance. Results Both regimens were well tolerated and similarly effective, with an overall median survival time of 930 days. Renal disease and neutrophil‐to‐lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were negative prognostic factors, whereas hypercalcemia and osteolytic lesions were not prognostic factors in this study population. Conclusions and Clinical Importance Positive results support the use of either dosing regimen for the treatment of dogs with MM, and renal disease and NLR were negative prognostic factors. Prospective, controlled, and randomized studies are warranted to confirm these findings. PMID:29566439

Prognostic Value of RUNX1 Mutations in AML: A Meta-Analysis

PubMed

Jalili, Mahdi; Yaghmaie, Marjan; Ahmadvand, Mohammad; Alimoghaddam, Kamran; Mousavi, Seyed Asadollah; Vaezi, Mohammad; Ghavamzadeh, Ardeshir

2018-02-26

The RUNX1 (AML1) gene is a relatively infrequent mutational target in cases of acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Previous work indicated that RUNX1 mutations can have pathological and prognostic implications. To evaluate prognostic value, we conducted a meta-analysis of 4 previous published works with data for survival according to RUNX1 mutation status. Pooled hazard ratios for overall survival and disease-free survival were 1.55 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.11–2.15; p-value = 0.01) and 1.76 (95% CI = 1.24–2.52; p-value = 0.002), respectively, for cases positive for RUNX1 mutations. This evidence supports clinical implications of RUNX1 mutations in the development and progression of AML cases and points to the possibility of a distinct category within the newer WHO classification. Though it must be kept in mind that the present work was based on data extracted from observational studies, the findings suggest that the RUNX1 status can contribute to risk-stratification and decision-making in management of AML. Creative Commons Attribution License

Clinical impact of sentinel lymph node biopsy in patients with thick (>4 mm) melanomas.

PubMed

White, Ian; Fortino, Jeanine; Curti, Brendan; Vetto, John

2014-05-01

The role of sentinel lymph node status (SLNS) in thick melanoma is evolving. The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic value of SLNS in thick melanoma. A retrospective analysis of 120 prospectively collected clinically node-negative thick melanomas over 5 years was performed. Patient (age/sex) and tumor (thickness, ulceration, SLNS, mitoses, metastases, and recurrence) features were collected. Multivariate analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazard model. Factors predictive of positive SLN included male sex, ulceration, and high mitoses. Factors associated with positive SLN had higher local-regional recurrence and metastases than negative SLN. SLNS and tumor thickness impacted 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS). Positive SLN, ulceration, age, and mitoses were independent predictors of DFS/OS. Nonulcerated/lower mitoses thick melanomas had lower positive SLN rates. Positive SLN develop recurrence and metastases and have worse OS/DFS. SLNS is an important prognosticator for OS/DFS. Sentinel lymph node biopsy delineates prognostic groups in thick melanomas and can impact management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Distributed Prognostics based on Structural Model Decomposition

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew J.; Bregon, Anibal; Roychoudhury, I.

2014-01-01

Within systems health management, prognostics focuses on predicting the remaining useful life of a system. In the model-based prognostics paradigm, physics-based models are constructed that describe the operation of a system and how it fails. Such approaches consist of an estimation phase, in which the health state of the system is first identified, and a prediction phase, in which the health state is projected forward in time to determine the end of life. Centralized solutions to these problems are often computationally expensive, do not scale well as the size of the system grows, and introduce a single point of failure. In this paper, we propose a novel distributed model-based prognostics scheme that formally describes how to decompose both the estimation and prediction problems into independent local subproblems whose solutions may be easily composed into a global solution. The decomposition of the prognostics problem is achieved through structural decomposition of the underlying models. The decomposition algorithm creates from the global system model a set of local submodels suitable for prognostics. Independent local estimation and prediction problems are formed based on these local submodels, resulting in a scalable distributed prognostics approach that allows the local subproblems to be solved in parallel, thus offering increases in computational efficiency. Using a centrifugal pump as a case study, we perform a number of simulation-based experiments to demonstrate the distributed approach, compare the performance with a centralized approach, and establish its scalability. Index Terms-model-based prognostics, distributed prognostics, structural model decomposition ABBREVIATIONS

Systematic review of the clinical and economic value of gene expression profiles for invasive early breast cancer available in Europe.

PubMed

Blok, E J; Bastiaannet, E; van den Hout, W B; Liefers, G J; Smit, V T H B M; Kroep, J R; van de Velde, C J H

2018-01-01

Gene expression profiles with prognostic capacities have shown good performance in multiple clinical trials. However, with multiple assays available and numerous types of validation studies performed, the added value for daily clinical practice is still unclear. In Europe, the MammaPrint, OncotypeDX, PAM50/Prosigna and Endopredict assays are commercially available. In this systematic review, we aim to assess these assays on four important criteria: Assay development and methodology, clinical validation, clinical utility and economic value. We performed a literature search covering PubMed, Embase, Web of Science and Cochrane, for studies related to one or more of the four selected assays. We identified 147 papers for inclusion in this review. MammaPrint and OncotypeDX both have evidence available, including level IA clinical trial results for both assays. Both assays provide prognostic information. Predictive value has only been shown for OncotypeDX. In the clinical utility studies, a higher reduction in chemotherapy was achieved by OncotypeDX, although the number of available studies differ considerably between tests. On average, economic evaluations estimate that genomic testing results in a moderate increase in total costs, but that these costs are acceptable in relation to the expected improved patient outcome. PAM50/prosigna and EndoPredict showed comparable prognostic capacities, but with less economical and clinical utility studies. Furthermore, for these assays no level IA trial data are available yet. In summary, all assays have shown excellent prognostic capacities. The differences in the quantity and quality of evidence are discussed. Future studies shall focus on the selection of appropriate subgroups for testing and long-term outcome of validation trials, in order to determine the place of these assays in daily clinical practice. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Continuous Amplitude-Integrated Electroencephalographic Monitoring Is a Useful Prognostic Tool for Hypothermia-Treated Cardiac Arrest Patients.

PubMed

Oh, Sang Hoon; Park, Kyu Nam; Shon, Young-Min; Kim, Young-Min; Kim, Han Joon; Youn, Chun Song; Kim, Soo Hyun; Choi, Seung Pill; Kim, Seok Chan

2015-09-22

Modern treatments have improved the survival rate following cardiac arrest, but prognostication remains a challenge. We examined the prognostic value of continuous electroencephalography according to time by performing amplitude-integrated electroencephalography on patients with cardiac arrest receiving therapeutic hypothermia. We prospectively studied 130 comatose patients treated with hypothermia from September 2010 to April 2013. We evaluated the time to normal trace (TTNT) as a neurological outcome predictor and determined the prognostic value of burst suppression and status epilepticus, with a particular focus on their time of occurrence. Fifty-five patients exhibited a cerebral performance category score of 1 to 2. The area under the curve for TTNT was 0.97 (95% confidence interval, 0.92-0.99), and the sensitivity and specificity of TTNT<24 hours after resuscitation as a threshold for predicting good neurological outcome were 94.6% (95% confidence interval, 84.9%-98.9%) and 90.7% (95% confidence interval, 81.7%-96.2%), respectively. The threshold displaying 100% specificity for predicting poor neurological outcome was TTNT>36 hours. Burst suppression and status epilepticus predicted poor neurological outcome (positive predictive value of 98.3% and 96.4%, respectively). The combination of these factors predicted a negative outcome at a median of 6.2 hours after resuscitation (sensitivity and specificity of 92.0% and 96.4%, respectively). A TTNT<24 hours was associated with good neurological outcome. The lack of normal trace development within 36 hours, status epilepticus, and burst suppression were predictors of poor outcome. The combination of these negative predictors may improve their prognostic performance at an earlier stage. © 2015 The Authors.

Vemurafenib in BRAF-mutant metastatic melanoma patients in real-world clinical practice: prognostic factors associated with clinical outcomes.

PubMed

Schouwenburg, Maartje G; Jochems, Anouk; Leeneman, Brenda; Franken, Margreet G; van den Eertwegh, Alfons J M; Haanen, John B A G; van Zeijl, Michiel C T; Aarts, Maureen J; van Akkooi, Alexander C J; van den Berkmortel, Franchette W P J; Blokx, Willeke A M; de Groot, Jan Willem B; Hospers, Geke A P; Kapiteijn, Ellen; Koornstra, Rutger H; Kruit, Wim H; Louwman, Marieke W J; Piersma, Djura; van Rijn, Rozemarijn S; Suijkerbuijk, Karijn P M; Ten Tije, Albert J; Vreugdenhil, Gerard; Wouters, Michel W J M; van der Hoeven, Jacobus J M

2018-08-01

The aim of this population-based study was to identify the factors associated with clinical outcomes in vemurafenib-treated patients and to evaluate outcomes across subgroups of patients with different risk profiles. Data were retrieved from the Dutch Melanoma Treatment Registry. Time to next treatment (TTNT) and overall survival (OS) of all metastatic melanoma patients who received vemurafenib between 2012 and 2015 were assessed using Kaplan-Meier estimates. A risk score was developed on the basis of all prognostic factors associated with TTNT and OS derived from multivariable Cox regression analyses. Patients were stratified according to the presence of prognostic risk factors by counting the number of factors, ranging from 0 to 6. A total of 626 patients received vemurafenib with a median follow-up of 35.8 months. The median TTNT and OS were 4.7 months [95% confidence intervals (CI): 4.4-5.1] and 7.3 months (95% CI: 6.6-8.0). The strongest prognostic factors were serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) level, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance score, number of organ sites involved and brain metastases. Patients with a favourable risk profile (no risk factors) had a median TTNT and OS of 7.1 (95% CI: 5.8-8.5) and 15.4 months (95% CI: 10.0-20.9). The median OS more than halved for patients with greater than or equal to 2 risk factors compared with patients with no risk factors. The clinical outcomes of vemurafenib in metastatic melanoma patients with a favourable risk profile are comparable with the results of the trials. Combining prognostic factors into a risk score could be valuable to stratify patients into favourable and poor-prognosis groups.

Rational bases for the use of the Immunoscore in routine clinical settings as a prognostic and predictive biomarker in cancer patients.

PubMed

Kirilovsky, Amos; Marliot, Florence; El Sissy, Carine; Haicheur, Nacilla; Galon, Jérôme; Pagès, Franck

2016-08-01

The American Joint Committee on Cancer/Union Internationale Contre le Cancer (AJCC/UICC) tumor, nodes, metastasis (TNM) classification system based on tumor features is used for prognosis estimation and treatment recommendations in most cancers. However, the clinical outcome can vary significantly among patients within the same tumor stage and TNM classification does not predict response to therapy. Therefore, many efforts have been focused on the identification of new markers. Multiple tumor cell-based approaches have been proposed but very few have been translated into the clinic. The recent demonstration of the essential role of the immune system in tumor progression has allowed great advances in the understanding of this complex disease and in the design of novel therapies. The analysis of the immune infiltrate by imaging techniques in large patient cohorts highlighted the prognostic impact of the in situ immune cell infiltrate in tumors. Moreover, the characterization of the immune infiltrates (e.g. type, density, distribution within the tumor, phenotype, activation status) in patients treated with checkpoint-blockade strategies could provide information to predict the disease outcome. In colorectal cancer, we have developed a prognostic score ('Immunoscore') that takes into account the distribution of the density of both CD3(+) lymphocytes and CD8(+) cytotoxic T cells in the tumor core and the invasive margin that could outperform TNM staging. Currently, an international retrospective study is under way to validate the Immunoscore prognostic performance in patients with colon cancer. The use of Immunoscore in clinical practice could improve the patients' prognostic assessment and therapeutic management. © The Japanese Society for Immunology. 2016. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Histogenesis and prognostic value of myenteric spread in colorectal cancer: a Japanese multi-institutional study.

PubMed

Ueno, Hideki; Shirouzu, Kazuo; Shimazaki, Hideyuki; Kawachi, Hiroshi; Eishi, Yoshinobu; Ajioka, Yoichi; Okuno, Kiyotaka; Yamada, Kazutaka; Sato, Toshihiko; Kusumi, Takaya; Kushima, Ryoji; Ikegami, Masahiro; Kojima, Motohiro; Ochiai, Atsushi; Murata, Akihiko; Akagi, Yoshito; Nakamura, Takahiro; Sugihara, Kenichi

2014-03-01

The histogenesis of the pattern of cancer spread along Auerbach's plexus (myenteric spread: MS) remains unclear and its prognostic value in colorectal cancer (CRC) has not been thoroughly investigated. Pathology slides of 2845 pT2/pT3/pT4 CRCs stained with hematoxylin-eosin (H&E) were reviewed at 10 institutions. MS was classified into 2 groups depending on whether it was accompanied by the finding of perineural invasion (PN) within the lesion. In addition, immunohistochemical staining (D2-40, S100, CD56, synaptophysin) was performed for serially sectioned specimens from 50 CRCs diagnosed as having PN-negative MS. MS was observed in 504 patients (17.7 %); 360 patients were classified as having PN-positive MS and 144 as having PN-negative MS. The 5-year disease-free survival rate of patients with MS was lower than that of patients without MS (63.3 vs 82.7 %, P < 0.0001); however, there was no significant difference in survival outcome according to the presence or absence of intralesion PN in MS. Multivariate analysis showed that the prognostic impact of MS was independent of conventional prognosticators including T and N stages, vascular invasion and extramural PN. In all the tumors having PN-negative MS, remnants of neural tissue were identified within or around cancer nests located at the leading edge of MS. MS is an important prognostic factor for CRC. This feature is the result of cancer development with replacement of Auerbach's plexus and can be classified as intramural PN. The clinical significance of "Pn1" in the UICC/AJCC TNM classification could be enhanced by individual assessment both intramurally and extramurally.

EUTOS CML prognostic scoring system predicts ELN-based 'event-free survival' better than Euro/Hasford and Sokal systems in CML patients receiving front-line imatinib mesylate.

PubMed

Uz, Burak; Buyukasik, Yahya; Atay, Hilmi; Kelkitli, Engin; Turgut, Mehmet; Bektas, Ozlen; Eliacik, Eylem; Isik, Ayşe; Aksu, Salih; Goker, Hakan; Sayinalp, Nilgun; Ozcebe, Osman I; Haznedaroglu, Ibrahim C

2013-09-01

The validity of the three currently used chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) scoring systems (Sokal CML prognostic scoring system, Euro/Hasford CML scoring system, and the EUTOS CML prognostic scoring system) were compared in the CML patients receiving frontline imatinib mesylate. One hundred and fourty-three chronic phase CML patients (71 males, 72 females) taking imatinib as frontline treatment were included in the study. The median age was 44 (16-82) years. Median total and on-imatinib follow-up durations were 29 (3.8-130) months and 25 (3-125) months, respectively. The complete hematological response (CHR) rate at 3 months was 95%. The best cumulative complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) rate at 24 months was 79.6%. Euro/Hasford scoring system was well-correlated with both Sokal and EUTOS scores (r = 0.6, P < 0.001 and r = 0.455, P < 0.001). However, there was only a weak correlation between Sokal and EUTOS scores (r = 0.2, P = 0.03). The 5-year median estimated event-free survival for low and high EUTOS risk patients were 62.6 (25.7-99.5) and 15.3 (7.4-23.2) months, respectively (P < 0.001). This performance was better than Sokal (P = 0.3) and Euro/Hasford (P = 0.04) scoring systems. Overall survival and CCyR rates were also better predicted by the EUTOS score. EUTOS CML prognostic scoring system, which is the only prognostic system developed during the imatinib era, predicts European LeukemiaNet (ELN)-based event-free survival better than Euro/Hasford and Sokal systems in CML patients receiving frontline imatinib mesylate. This observation might have important clinical implications.

Comprehensive Analysis of the Neutrophil-to-Lymphocyte Ratio for Preoperative Prognostic Prediction Nomogram in Gastric Cancer.

PubMed

Choi, Jong-Ho; Suh, Yun-Suhk; Choi, Yunhee; Han, Jiyeon; Kim, Tae Han; Park, Shin-Hoo; Kong, Seong-Ho; Lee, Hyuk-Joon; Yang, Han-Kwang

2018-02-01

The role of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and preoperative prediction model in gastric cancer is controversial, while postoperative prognostic models are available. This study investigated NLR as a preoperative prognostic indicator in gastric cancer. We reviewed patients with primary gastric cancer who underwent surgery during 2007-2010. Preoperative clinicopathologic factors were analyzed with their interaction and used to develop a prognosis prediction nomogram. That preoperative prediction nomogram was compared to a nomogram using pTNM or a historical postoperative prediction nomogram. The contribution of NLR to a preoperative nomogram was evaluated with integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Using 2539 records, multivariable analysis revealed that NLR was one of the independent prognostic factors and had a significant interaction with only age among other preoperative factors (especially significant in patients < 50 years old). NLR was constantly significant between 1.1 and 3.1 without any distinctive cutoff value. Preoperative prediction nomogram using NLR showed a Harrell's C-index of 0.79 and an R 2 of 25.2%, which was comparable to the C-index of 0.78 and 0.82 and R 2 of 26.6 and 25.8% from nomogram using pTNM and a historical postoperative prediction nomogram, respectively. IDI of NLR to nomogram in the overall population was 0.65%, and that of patients < 50 years old was 2.72%. NLR is an independent prognostic factor for gastric cancer, especially in patients < 50 years old. A preoperative prediction nomogram using NLR can predict prognosis of gastric cancer as effectively as pTNM and a historical postoperative prediction nomogram.

Prognostic factors for return-to-work following surgery for carpal tunnel syndrome: a systematic review.

PubMed

Peters, Susan; Johnston, Venerina; Hines, Sonia; Ross, Mark; Coppieters, Michel

2016-09-01

Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) is a common problem, that can be effectively managed by surgery. Screening for prognostic factors is important to identify workers who are at a greater risk of a poor work outcome in order to implement tailored interventions to facilitate their return-to-work. To synthesize the best available evidence on the association of preoperative prognostic factors with work-related outcomes in people who have undergone carpal tunnel surgery. Participants included those who were employed at the time of surgery, underwent carpal tunnel surgery and planned to return-to-work. The primary outcome was return-to-work. Quantitative studies investigating at least one prognostic factor for a work-related outcome in studies of workers who had carpal tunnel surgery were considered. Eleven electronic databases were searched from their respective inception date up to July 2015. A total of 3893 publications were reviewed. The quality of the included studies was assessed by two reviewers using a modified version of an appraisal tool (Joanna Briggs Institute Meta-analysis of Statistical Assessment and Review Instrument [JBI-MAStARI]). The following criteria were evaluated: study population representativeness, clearly defined prognostic factors and outcomes, potential confounding variables and appropriate statistical analysis. Data extraction was performed using a modified version of the standardized extraction tool from JBI-MAStARI. Statistical pooling was not possible. Findings are presented in tables and narrative format. Eleven studies (13 publications) investigating 93 prognostic factors for delayed return-to-work or prolonged work disability outcomes and 27 prognostic factors for work role functioning in 4187 participants were identified.Prognostic factors associated with workers' increased likelihood of an earlier return-to-work in a moderate-to-high-quality study included worker expected or desired fewer days off work, occupation, lower pain anxiety and if CTS had not altered their work role.Prognostic factors for a poorer work-related outcome included older age, lower household income, greater upper extremity functional limitation, greater than two musculoskeletal pain sites, lower recovery expectations, worse mental health status, job accommodation availability, high job strain, high job demands with high job control, poor co-worker relationships, poor baseline work role functioning, less-supportive workplace policies, preoperative work absence due to CTS or work disability of any cause, workers' compensation status, attorney involvement, and post-diagnosis surgical wait time. For workers who have had carpal tunnel surgery, there are a number of factors which may be modified in order to improve return-to-work times.

A systematic review of prognostic factors for return to work following work-related traumatic hand injury.

PubMed

Shi, Qiyun; Sinden, Kathryn; MacDermid, Joy C; Walton, David; Grewal, Ruby

2014-01-01

Systematic review. Traumatic hand injuries are frequent cause of work related injuries and can result in prolonged durations of time loss from work. To systematically review available evidence to determine which prognostic factors predict return-to-work (RTW) following work-related traumatic hand injuries. We searched Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL and PsycINFO from 1980 to September 2013 and reference lists of articles. Studies investigating any prognostic factors of RTW after traumatic hand injury were included. Two reviewers performed study selection, assessment of methodological quality and data extraction independently of each other. Identified factors were grouped into conceptual prognostic factor categories. We assessed 8 studies, which addressed 11 potential prognostic factors (i.e., sociodemographic factors, occupation, work compensation status, treatment related factors, impairment severity, location of injury, etc.). The quality of the studies was low to moderate. Across all included studies, RTW (original or modified work) occurred in over 60% of individuals by 6 months. There was consistent low-moderate quality evidence that individuals with more severe impairments and lower pre-injury income were less likely to RTW, and low-moderate quality evidence that age, gender and level of education had no impact on RTW. Evidence on other commonly cited prognostic factors were limited in the literature. Impairment severity and lower pre-injury income showed a consistent association with RTW following occupational hand injury, while other factors demonstrated no or variable effects across studies. Additional high-quality studies are warranted toward improving our understanding of the complex factors that mediate RTW following a traumatic work-related hand injury. 2a. Copyright © 2014 Hanley & Belfus. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A prediction model for early death in non-small cell lung cancer patients following curative-intent chemoradiotherapy.

PubMed

Jochems, Arthur; El-Naqa, Issam; Kessler, Marc; Mayo, Charles S; Jolly, Shruti; Matuszak, Martha; Faivre-Finn, Corinne; Price, Gareth; Holloway, Lois; Vinod, Shalini; Field, Matthew; Barakat, Mohamed Samir; Thwaites, David; de Ruysscher, Dirk; Dekker, Andre; Lambin, Philippe

2018-02-01

Early death after a treatment can be seen as a therapeutic failure. Accurate prediction of patients at risk for early mortality is crucial to avoid unnecessary harm and reducing costs. The goal of our work is two-fold: first, to evaluate the performance of a previously published model for early death in our cohorts. Second, to develop a prognostic model for early death prediction following radiotherapy. Patients with NSCLC treated with chemoradiotherapy or radiotherapy alone were included in this study. Four different cohorts from different countries were available for this work (N = 1540). The previous model used age, gender, performance status, tumor stage, income deprivation, no previous treatment given (yes/no) and body mass index to make predictions. A random forest model was developed by learning on the Maastro cohort (N = 698). The new model used performance status, age, gender, T and N stage, total tumor volume (cc), total tumor dose (Gy) and chemotherapy timing (none, sequential, concurrent) to make predictions. Death within 4 months of receiving the first radiotherapy fraction was used as the outcome. Early death rates ranged from 6 to 11% within the four cohorts. The previous model performed with AUC values ranging from 0.54 to 0.64 on the validation cohorts. Our newly developed model had improved AUC values ranging from 0.62 to 0.71 on the validation cohorts. Using advanced machine learning methods and informative variables, prognostic models for early mortality can be developed. Development of accurate prognostic tools for early mortality is important to inform patients about treatment options and optimize care.

Impact of prognostic factors for postmastectomy radiation therapy of breast cancer patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simonov, K. A.; Startseva, Zh. A.; Slonimskaya, E. M.; Velikaya, V. V.

2017-09-01

The study included 196 breast cancer patients with stages T1-3N0-3M0. The comprehensive therapy for breast cancer included surgical operation, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. Multivariate analysis showed that multifocality growth of tumor (p = 0.004), high grade III (p = 0.008), two metastatic lymph nodes (p = 0.02) were associated with an increased risk of regional node failure in the patients with one to three positive lymph nodes. The prognostic models describing the probability of local recurrences of breast cancer were developed for individualization of the radiation therapy tactics. Postmastectomy radiation therapy in the patients with high-risk breast cancer treated with modified radical mastectomy improves locoregional control, breast cancer-specific survival, does not increase late toxicity.

Prognostic value of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in pancreatic cancer: a comprehensive meta-analysis of 17 cohort studies.

PubMed

Zhou, Yongping; Cheng, Sijin; Fathy, Abdel Hamid; Qian, Haixin; Zhao, Yongzhao

2018-01-01

Several studies were conducted to explore the prognostic value of platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) in pancreatic cancer and have reported contradictory results. This study aims to summarize the prognostic role of PLR in pancreatic cancer. Embase, PubMed and Cochrane Library were completely searched. The cohort studies focusing on the prognostic role of PLR in pancreatic cancer were eligible. The overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were analyzed. Fifteen papers containing 17 cohort studies with pancreatic cancer were identified. The results showed patients that with low PLR might have longer OS when compared to the patients with high PLR (hazard ratio=1.28, 95% CI=1.17-1.40, P <0.00001; I 2 =42%). Similar results were observed in the subgroup analyses of OS, which was based on the analysis model, ethnicity, sample size and cut-off value. Further analyses based on the adjusted potential confounders were conducted, including CA199, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, modified Glasgow Prognostic Score, albumin, C-reactive protein, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group, stage, tumor size, nodal involvement, tumor differentiation, margin status, age and gender, which confirmed that low PLR was a protective factor in pancreatic cancer. In addition, low PLR was significantly associated with longer PFS when compared to high PLR in pancreatic cancer (hazard ratio=1.27, 95% CI=1.03-1.57, P =0.03; I 2 =33%). In conclusion, it was found that high PLR is an unfavorable predictor of OS and PFS in patients with pancreatic cancer, and PLR is a promising prognostic biomarker for pancreatic cancer.

Prognostic Value of Quantitative Stress Perfusion Cardiac Magnetic Resonance.

PubMed

Sammut, Eva C; Villa, Adriana D M; Di Giovine, Gabriella; Dancy, Luke; Bosio, Filippo; Gibbs, Thomas; Jeyabraba, Swarna; Schwenke, Susanne; Williams, Steven E; Marber, Michael; Alfakih, Khaled; Ismail, Tevfik F; Razavi, Reza; Chiribiri, Amedeo

2018-05-01

This study sought to evaluate the prognostic usefulness of visual and quantitative perfusion cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) ischemic burden in an unselected group of patients and to assess the validity of consensus-based ischemic burden thresholds extrapolated from nuclear studies. There are limited data on the prognostic value of assessing myocardial ischemic burden by CMR, and there are none using quantitative perfusion analysis. Patients with suspected coronary artery disease referred for adenosine-stress perfusion CMR were included (n = 395; 70% male; age 58 ± 13 years). The primary endpoint was a composite of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, aborted sudden death, and revascularization after 90 days. Perfusion scans were assessed visually and with quantitative analysis. Cross-validated Cox regression analysis and net reclassification improvement were used to assess the incremental prognostic value of visual or quantitative perfusion analysis over a baseline clinical model, initially as continuous covariates, then using accepted thresholds of ≥2 segments or ≥10% myocardium. After a median 460 days (interquartile range: 190 to 869 days) follow-up, 52 patients reached the primary endpoint. At 2 years, the addition of ischemic burden was found to increase prognostic value over a baseline model of age, sex, and late gadolinium enhancement (baseline model area under the curve [AUC]: 0.75; visual AUC: 0.84; quantitative AUC: 0.85). Dichotomized quantitative ischemic burden performed better than visual assessment (net reclassification improvement 0.043 vs. 0.003 against baseline model). This study was the first to address the prognostic benefit of quantitative analysis of perfusion CMR and to support the use of consensus-based ischemic burden thresholds by perfusion CMR for prognostic evaluation of patients with suspected coronary artery disease. Quantitative analysis provided incremental prognostic value to visual assessment and established risk factors, potentially representing an important step forward in the translation of quantitative CMR perfusion analysis to the clinical setting. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Characterization and prognostic implication of 17 chromosome abnormalities in myelodysplastic syndrome.

PubMed

Sánchez-Castro, Judit; Marco-Betés, Víctor; Gómez-Arbonés, Xavier; Arenillas, Leonor; Valcarcel, David; Vallespí, Teresa; Costa, Dolors; Nomdedeu, Benet; Jimenez, María José; Granada, Isabel; Grau, Javier; Ardanaz, María T; de la Serna, Javier; Carbonell, Félix; Cervera, José; Sierra, Adriana; Luño, Elisa; Cervero, Carlos J; Falantes, José; Calasanz, María J; González-Porrás, José R; Bailén, Alicia; Amigo, M Luz; Sanz, Guillermo; Solé, Francesc

2013-07-01

The prognosis of chromosome 17 (chr17) abnormalities in patients with primary myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) remains unclear. The revised International Prognostic Scoring System (IPSS-R) includes these abnormalities within the intermediate cytogenetic risk group. This study assessed the impact on overall survival (OS) and risk of acute myeloid leukemia transformation (AMLt) of chr17 abnormalities in 88 patients with primary MDS. We have compared this group with 1346 patients with primary MDS and abnormal karyotype without chr17 involved. The alterations of chr17 should be considered within group of poor prognosis. The different types of alterations of chromosome 17 behave different prognosis. The study confirms the intermediate prognostic impact of the i(17q), as stated in IPSS-R. The results of the study, however, provide valuable new information on the prognostic impact of alterations of chromosome 17 in complex karyotypes. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The expression level of BAALC-associated microRNA miR-3151 is an independent prognostic factor in younger patients with cytogenetic intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia

PubMed Central

Díaz-Beyá, M; Brunet, S; Nomdedéu, J; Cordeiro, A; Tormo, M; Escoda, L; Ribera, J M; Arnan, M; Heras, I; Gallardo, D; Bargay, J; Queipo de Llano, M P; Salamero, O; Martí, J M; Sampol, A; Pedro, C; Hoyos, M; Pratcorona, M; Castellano, J J; Nomdedeu, M; Risueño, R M; Sierra, J; Monzó, M; Navarro, A; Esteve, J

2015-01-01

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a heterogeneous disease whose prognosis is mainly related to the biological risk conferred by cytogenetics and molecular profiling. In elderly patients (⩾60 years) with normal karyotype AML miR-3151 have been identified as a prognostic factor. However, miR-3151 prognostic value has not been examined in younger AML patients. In the present work, we have studied miR-3151 alone and in combination with BAALC, its host gene, in a cohort of 181 younger intermediate-risk AML (IR-AML) patients. Patients with higher expression of miR-3151 had shorter overall survival (P=0.0025), shorter leukemia-free survival (P=0.026) and higher cumulative incidence of relapse (P=0.082). Moreover, in the multivariate analysis miR-3151 emerged as independent prognostic marker in both the overall series and within the unfavorable molecular prognostic category. Interestingly, the combined determination of both miR-3151 and BAALC improved this prognostic stratification, with patients with low levels of both parameters showing a better outcome compared with those patients harboring increased levels of one or both markers (P=0.003). In addition, we studied the microRNA expression profile associated with miR-3151 identifying a six-microRNA signature. In conclusion, the analysis of miR-3151 and BAALC expression may well contribute to an improved prognostic stratification of younger patients with IR-AML. PMID:26430723

Clinical relevance of ErbB-2/HER2 nuclear expression in breast cancer.

PubMed

Schillaci, Roxana; Guzmán, Pablo; Cayrol, Florencia; Beguelin, Wendy; Díaz Flaqué, María C; Proietti, Cecilia J; Pineda, Viviana; Palazzi, Jorge; Frahm, Isabel; Charreau, Eduardo H; Maronna, Esteban; Roa, Juan C; Elizalde, Patricia V

2012-02-22

The biological relevance of nuclear ErbB-2/HER2 (NuclErbB-2) presence in breast tumors remains unexplored. In this study we assessed the clinical significance of ErbB-2 nuclear localization in primary invasive breast cancer. The reporting recommendations for tumor marker prognostic studies (REMARK) guidelines were used as reference. Tissue microarrays from a cohort of 273 primary invasive breast carcinomas from women living in Chile, a Latin American country, were examined for membrane (MembErbB-2) and NuclErbB-2 expression by an immunofluorescence (IF) protocol we developed. ErbB-2 expression was also evaluated by immunohistochemistry (IHC) with a series of antibodies. Correlation between NuclErbB-2 and MembErbB-2, and between NuclErbB-2 and clinicopathological characteristics of tumors was studied. The prognostic value of NuclErbB-2 in overall survival (OS) was evaluated using Kaplan-Meier method, and Cox model was used to explore NuclErbB-2 as independent prognostic factor for OS. The IF protocol we developed showed significantly higher sensitivity for detection of NuclErbB-2 than IHC procedures, while its specificity and sensitivity to detect MembErbB-2 were comparable to those of IHC procedures. We found 33.6% NuclErbB-2 positivity, 14.2% MembErbB-2 overexpression by IF, and 13.0% MembErbB-2 prevalence by IHC in our cohort. We identified NuclErbB-2 positivity as a significant independent predictor of worse OS in patients with MembErbB-2 overexpression. NuclErbB-2 was also a biomarker of lower OS in tumors that overexpress MembErbB-2 and lack steroid hormone receptors. We revealed a novel role for NuclErbB-2 as an independent prognostic factor of poor clinical outcome in MembErbB-2-positive breast tumors. Our work indicates that patients presenting NuclErbB-2 may need new therapeutic strategies involving specific blockage of ErbB-2 nuclear migration.

Clonal diversity analysis using SNP microarray: a new prognostic tool for chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

PubMed

Zhang, Linsheng; Znoyko, Iya; Costa, Luciano J; Conlin, Laura K; Daber, Robert D; Self, Sally E; Wolff, Daynna J

2011-12-01

Chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) is a clinically heterogeneous disease. The methods currently used for monitoring CLL and determining conditions for treatment are limited in their ability to predict disease progression, patient survival, and response to therapy. Although clonal diversity and the acquisition of new chromosomal abnormalities during the disease course (clonal evolution) have been associated with disease progression, their prognostic potential has been underappreciated because cytogenetic and fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) studies have a restricted ability to detect genomic abnormalities and clonal evolution. We hypothesized that whole genome analysis using high resolution single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) microarrays would be useful to detect diversity and infer clonal evolution to offer prognostic information. In this study, we used the Infinium Omni1 BeadChip (Illumina, San Diego, CA) array for the analysis of genetic variation and percent mosaicism in 25 non-selected CLL patients to explore the prognostic value of the assessment of clonal diversity in patients with CLL. We calculated the percentage of mosaicism for each abnormality by applying a mathematical algorithm to the genotype frequency data and by manual determination using the Simulated DNA Copy Number (SiDCoN) tool, which was developed from a computer model of mosaicism. At least one genetic abnormality was identified in each case, and the SNP data was 98% concordant with FISH results. Clonal diversity, defined as the presence of two or more genetic abnormalities with differing percentages of mosaicism, was observed in 12 patients (48%), and the diversity correlated with the disease stage. Clonal diversity was present in most cases of advanced disease (Rai stages III and IV) or those with previous treatment, whereas 9 of 13 patients without detected clonal diversity were asymptomatic or clinically stable. In conclusion, SNP microarray studies with simultaneous evaluation of genomic alterations and mosaic distribution of clones can be used to assess apparent clonal evolution via analysis of clonal diversity. Since clonal evolution in CLL is strongly correlated with disease progression, whole genome SNP microarray analysis provides a new comprehensive and reliable prognostic tool for CLL patients. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Neutrophil infiltration is a favorable prognostic factor in early stages of colon cancer.

PubMed

Wikberg, Maria L; Ling, Agnes; Li, Xingru; Öberg, Åke; Edin, Sofia; Palmqvist, Richard

2017-10-01

The tumor immune response has been proven critical to prognosis in colorectal cancer (CRC), but studies on the prognostic role of neutrophil infiltration have shown contradictory results. The aim of this study was to elucidate the prognostic role of infiltrating neutrophils at different intratumoral subsites and in different molecular subgroups of CRC. The relations between neutrophil infiltration and infiltration of other immune cells (T-cell and macrophage subsets) were also addressed. Expression of the neutrophil marker CD66b was assessed by immunohistochemistry in 448 archival human tumor tissue samples from patients surgically resected for CRC. The infiltration of CD66b-positive cells was semi-quantitatively evaluated along the tumor invasive front, in the tumor center, and within the tumor epithelium (intraepithelial expression). We found that poor infiltration of CD66b-positive cells in the tumor front indicated a worse patient prognosis. The prognostic significance of CD66b infiltration was found to be mainly independent of tumor molecular characteristics and maintained significance in multivariable analysis of stage I-II colon cancers. We further analyzed the prognostic impact of CD66b-positive cells in relation to other immune markers (NOS2, CD163, Tbet, FOXP3, and CD8) and found that neutrophil infiltration, even though strongly correlated to infiltration of other immune cell subsets, had additional prognostic value. In conclusion, we find that low infiltration of neutrophils in the tumor front is an independent prognostic factor for a poorer patient prognosis in early stages of colon cancers. Further studies are needed to elucidate the biological role of neutrophils in colorectal carcinogenesis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Validation of cytogenetic risk groups according to International Prognostic Scoring Systems by peripheral blood CD34+FISH: results from a German diagnostic study in comparison with an international control group.

PubMed

Braulke, Friederike; Platzbecker, Uwe; Müller-Thomas, Catharina; Götze, Katharina; Germing, Ulrich; Brümmendorf, Tim H; Nolte, Florian; Hofmann, Wolf-Karsten; Giagounidis, Aristoteles A N; Lübbert, Michael; Greenberg, Peter L; Bennett, John M; Solé, Francesc; Mallo, Mar; Slovak, Marilyn L; Ohyashiki, Kazuma; Le Beau, Michelle M; Tüchler, Heinz; Pfeilstöcker, Michael; Nösslinger, Thomas; Hildebrandt, Barbara; Shirneshan, Katayoon; Aul, Carlo; Stauder, Reinhard; Sperr, Wolfgang R; Valent, Peter; Fonatsch, Christa; Trümper, Lorenz; Haase, Detlef; Schanz, Julie

2015-02-01

International Prognostic Scoring Systems are used to determine the individual risk profile of myelodysplastic syndrome patients. For the assessment of International Prognostic Scoring Systems, an adequate chromosome banding analysis of the bone marrow is essential. Cytogenetic information is not available for a substantial number of patients (5%-20%) with dry marrow or an insufficient number of metaphase cells. For these patients, a valid risk classification is impossible. In the study presented here, the International Prognostic Scoring Systems were validated based on fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses using extended probe panels applied to cluster of differentiation 34 positive (CD34(+)) peripheral blood cells of 328 MDS patients of our prospective multicenter German diagnostic study and compared to chromosome banding results of 2902 previously published patients with myelodysplastic syndromes. For cytogenetic risk classification by fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of CD34(+) peripheral blood cells, the groups differed significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival by uni- and multivariate analyses without discrepancies between treated and untreated patients. Including cytogenetic data of fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses of peripheral CD34(+) blood cells (instead of bone marrow banding analysis) into the complete International Prognostic Scoring System assessment, the prognostic risk groups separated significantly for overall and leukemia-free survival. Our data show that a reliable stratification to the risk groups of the International Prognostic Scoring Systems is possible from peripheral blood in patients with missing chromosome banding analysis by using a comprehensive probe panel (clinicaltrials.gov identifier:01355913). Copyright© Ferrata Storti Foundation.

The importance of histopathological and clinical variables in predicting the evolution of colon cancer.

PubMed

Diculescu, Mircea; Iacob, Răzvan; Iacob, Speranţa; Croitoru, Adina; Becheanu, Gabriel; Popeneciu, Valentin

2002-09-01

It has been a consensus that prognostic factors should always be taken into account before planning treatment in colorectal cancer. A 5 year prospective study was conducted, in order to assess the importance of several histopathological and clinical prognostic variables in the prediction of evolution in colon cancer. Some of the factors included in the analysis are still subject to dispute by different authors. 46 of 53 screened patients qualified to enter the study and underwent a potentially curative resection of the tumor, followed, when necessary, by adjuvant chemotherapy. Univariate and multivariate analyses were carried out in order to identify independent prognostic indicators. The endpoint of the study was considered the recurrence of the tumor or the detection of metastases. 65.2% of the patients had a good evolution during the follow up period. Multivariate survival analysis performed by Cox proportional hazard model identified 3 independent prognostic factors: Dukes stage (p = 0.00002), the grade of differentiation (p = 0.0009) and the weight loss index, representing the weight loss of the patient divided by the number of months when it was actually lost (p = 0.02). Age under 40 years, sex, microscopic aspect of the tumor, tumor location, anemia degree were not identified by our analysis as having prognostic importance. Histopathological factors continue to be the most valuable source of information regarding the possible evolution of patients with colorectal cancer. Individual clinical symptoms or biological parameters such as erytrocyte sedimentation rate or hemoglobin level are of little or no prognostic value. More research is required relating to the impact of a performance status index (which could include also weight loss index) as another reliable prognostic variable.

Validation of Quantitative Multimodality Analysis of Telomerase Activity in Urine Cells as a Noninvasive Diagnostic and Prognostic Tool for Prostate Cancer

DTIC Science & Technology

2005-08-01

present study, who was previously misdiagnosed with BPH and inflammation, eventually has revealed the prostate cancer with the Gleason score 7. Therefore...Noninvasive Diagnostic and Prognostic Tool for Prostate Cancer ...5a. CONTRACT NUMBER Urine Cells as a Noninvasive Diagnostic and Prognostic Tool for Prostate Cancer 5b. GRANT NUMBER W81XWH-04-1-0774 5c

Do two machine-learning based prognostic signatures for breast cancer capture the same biological processes?

PubMed

Drier, Yotam; Domany, Eytan

2011-03-14

The fact that there is very little if any overlap between the genes of different prognostic signatures for early-discovery breast cancer is well documented. The reasons for this apparent discrepancy have been explained by the limits of simple machine-learning identification and ranking techniques, and the biological relevance and meaning of the prognostic gene lists was questioned. Subsequently, proponents of the prognostic gene lists claimed that different lists do capture similar underlying biological processes and pathways. The present study places under scrutiny the validity of this claim, for two important gene lists that are at the focus of current large-scale validation efforts. We performed careful enrichment analysis, controlling the effects of multiple testing in a manner which takes into account the nested dependent structure of gene ontologies. In contradiction to several previous publications, we find that the only biological process or pathway for which statistically significant concordance can be claimed is cell proliferation, a process whose relevance and prognostic value was well known long before gene expression profiling. We found that the claims reported by others, of wider concordance between the biological processes captured by the two prognostic signatures studied, were found either to be lacking statistical rigor or were in fact based on addressing some other question.

Advanced Methods for Determining Prediction Uncertainty in Model-Based Prognostics with Application to Planetary Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Daigle, Matthew J.; Sankararaman, Shankar

2013-01-01

Prognostics is centered on predicting the time of and time until adverse events in components, subsystems, and systems. It typically involves both a state estimation phase, in which the current health state of a system is identified, and a prediction phase, in which the state is projected forward in time. Since prognostics is mainly a prediction problem, prognostic approaches cannot avoid uncertainty, which arises due to several sources. Prognostics algorithms must both characterize this uncertainty and incorporate it into the predictions so that informed decisions can be made about the system. In this paper, we describe three methods to solve these problems, including Monte Carlo-, unscented transform-, and first-order reliability-based methods. Using a planetary rover as a case study, we demonstrate and compare the different methods in simulation for battery end-of-discharge prediction.

Prognostic Indexes for Brain Metastases: Which Is the Most Powerful?

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Arruda Viani, Gustavo, E-mail: gusviani@gmail.com; Bernardes da Silva, Lucas Godoi; Stefano, Eduardo Jose

Purpose: The purpose of the present study was to compare the prognostic indexes (PIs) of patients with brain metastases (BMs) treated with whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT) using an artificial neural network. This analysis is important, because it evaluates the prognostic power of each PI to guide clinical decision-making and outcomes research. Methods and Materials: A retrospective prognostic study was conducted of 412 patients with BMs who underwent WBRT between April 1998 and March 2010. The eligibility criteria for patients included having undergone WBRT or WBRT plus neurosurgery. The data were analyzed using the artificial neural network. The input neural datamore » consisted of all prognostic factors included in the 5 PIs (recursive partitioning analysis, graded prognostic assessment [GPA], basic score for BMs, Rotterdam score, and Germany score). The data set was randomly divided into 300 training and 112 testing examples for survival prediction. All 5 PIs were compared using our database of 412 patients with BMs. The sensibility of the 5 indexes to predict survival according to their input variables was determined statistically using receiver operating characteristic curves. The importance of each variable from each PI was subsequently evaluated. Results: The overall 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival rate was 22%, 10.2%, and 5.1%, respectively. All classes of PIs were significantly associated with survival (recursive partitioning analysis, P < .0001; GPA, P < .0001; basic score for BMs, P = .002; Rotterdam score, P = .001; and Germany score, P < .0001). Comparing the areas under the curves, the GPA was statistically most sensitive in predicting survival (GPA, 86%; recursive partitioning analysis, 81%; basic score for BMs, 79%; Rotterdam, 73%; and Germany score, 77%; P < .001). Among the variables included in each PI, the performance status and presence of extracranial metastases were the most important factors. Conclusion: A variety of prognostic models describe the survival of patients with BMs to a more or less satisfactory degree. Among the 5 PIs evaluated in the present study, GPA was the most powerful in predicting survival. Additional studies should include emerging biologic prognostic factors to improve the sensibility of these PIs.« less

Diagnosis-Specific Prognostic Factors, Indexes, and Treatment Outcomes for Patients With Newly Diagnosed Brain Metastases: A Multi-Institutional Analysis of 4,259 Patients

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sperduto, Paul W., E-mail: psperduto@mropa.co; Chao, Samuel T.; Sneed, Penny K.

2010-07-01

Purpose: Controversy endures regarding the optimal treatment of patients with brain metastases (BMs). Debate persists, despite many randomized trials, perhaps because BM patients are a heterogeneous population. The purpose of the present study was to identify significant diagnosis-specific prognostic factors and indexes (Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment [DS-GPA]). Methods and Materials: A retrospective database of 5,067 patients treated for BMs between 1985 and 2007 was generated from 11 institutions. After exclusion of the patients with recurrent BMs or incomplete data, 4,259 patients with newly diagnosed BMs remained eligible for analysis. Univariate and multivariate analyses of the prognostic factors and outcomes bymore » primary site and treatment were performed. The significant prognostic factors were determined and used to define the DS-GPA prognostic indexes. The DS-GPA scores were calculated and correlated with the outcomes, stratified by diagnosis and treatment. Results: The significant prognostic factors varied by diagnosis. For non-small-cell lung cancer and small-cell lung cancer, the significant prognostic factors were Karnofsky performance status, age, presence of extracranial metastases, and number of BMs, confirming the original GPA for these diagnoses. For melanoma and renal cell cancer, the significant prognostic factors were Karnofsky performance status and the number of BMs. For breast and gastrointestinal cancer, the only significant prognostic factor was the Karnofsky performance status. Two new DS-GPA indexes were thus designed for breast/gastrointestinal cancer and melanoma/renal cell carcinoma. The median survival by GPA score, diagnosis, and treatment were determined. Conclusion: The prognostic factors for BM patients varied by diagnosis. The original GPA was confirmed for non-small-cell lung cancer and small-cell lung cancer. New DS-GPA indexes were determined for other histologic types and correlated with the outcome, and statistical separation between the groups was confirmed. These data should be considered in the design of future randomized trials and in clinical decision-making.« less

Contribution of artificial intelligence to the knowledge of prognostic factors in laryngeal carcinoma.

PubMed

Zapater, E; Moreno, S; Fortea, M A; Campos, A; Armengot, M; Basterra, J

2000-11-01

Many studies have investigated prognostic factors in laryngeal carcinoma, with sometimes conflicting results. Apart from the importance of environmental factors, the different statistical methods employed may have influenced such discrepancies. A program based on artificial intelligence techniques is designed to determine the prognostic factors in a series of 122 laryngeal carcinomas. The results obtained are compared with those derived from two classical statistical methods (Cox regression and mortality tables). Tumor location was found to be the most important prognostic factor by all methods. The proposed intelligent system is found to be a sound method capable of detecting exceptional cases.

Time-dependent summary receiver operating characteristics for meta-analysis of prognostic studies.

PubMed

Hattori, Satoshi; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

2016-11-20

Prognostic studies are widely conducted to examine whether biomarkers are associated with patient's prognoses and play important roles in medical decisions. Because findings from one prognostic study may be very limited, meta-analyses may be useful to obtain sound evidence. However, prognostic studies are often analyzed by relying on a study-specific cut-off value, which can lead to difficulty in applying the standard meta-analysis techniques. In this paper, we propose two methods to estimate a time-dependent version of the summary receiver operating characteristics curve for meta-analyses of prognostic studies with a right-censored time-to-event outcome. We introduce a bivariate normal model for the pair of time-dependent sensitivity and specificity and propose a method to form inferences based on summary statistics reported in published papers. This method provides a valid inference asymptotically. In addition, we consider a bivariate binomial model. To draw inferences from this bivariate binomial model, we introduce a multiple imputation method. The multiple imputation is found to be approximately proper multiple imputation, and thus the standard Rubin's variance formula is justified from a Bayesian view point. Our simulation study and application to a real dataset revealed that both methods work well with a moderate or large number of studies and the bivariate binomial model coupled with the multiple imputation outperforms the bivariate normal model with a small number of studies. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Primary central nervous system lymphoma in immunocompetent individuals: a single center experience.

PubMed

Aki, Hilal; Uzunaslan, Didem; Saygin, Caner; Batur, Sebnem; Tuzuner, Nukhet; Kafadar, Ali; Ongoren, Seniz; Oz, Buge

2013-01-01

Primary central nervous system lymphoma (PCNSL) is defined as the involvement of brain, leptomeninges, eyes or spinal cord by non-Hodgkin lymphoma. The role of various prognostic markers in predicting adverse outcome is debated. To investigate the clinical and immunohistochemical findings of immunocompetent PCNSL cases (39 cases) diagnosed at the study center, and evaluate the influence of potential prognostic factors on overall survival (OS) of patients. Data regarding patient characteristics, neuroimaging, pathological and immunohistochemical features and follow-up were obtained from patient records. The influence of potential prognostic parameters on OS was investigated by log-rank test and Cox regression analysis. Patients who received combined chemotherapy and radiotherapy had a significantly better OS when compared to chemotherapy alone. Other variables included in this study were not associated with a significant survival advantage. In this study, we failed to demonstrate a relationship between different clinicopathological variables and OS of patients. Prospective studies with large patient series are needed to investigate other potential prognostic factors.

Recursive Partitioning Analysis for New Classification of Patients With Esophageal Cancer Treated by Chemoradiotherapy

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nomura, Motoo, E-mail: excell@hkg.odn.ne.jp; Department of Clinical Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya; Department of Radiation Oncology, Aichi Cancer Center Hospital, Nagoya

2012-11-01

Background: The 7th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system does not include lymph node size in the guidelines for staging patients with esophageal cancer. The objectives of this study were to determine the prognostic impact of the maximum metastatic lymph node diameter (ND) on survival and to develop and validate a new staging system for patients with esophageal squamous cell cancer who were treated with definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Methods: Information on 402 patients with esophageal cancer undergoing CRT at two institutions was reviewed. Univariate and multivariate analyses of data from one institution were used to assessmore » the impact of clinical factors on survival, and recursive partitioning analysis was performed to develop the new staging classification. To assess its clinical utility, the new classification was validated using data from the second institution. Results: By multivariate analysis, gender, T, N, and ND stages were independently and significantly associated with survival (p < 0.05). The resulting new staging classification was based on the T and ND. The four new stages led to good separation of survival curves in both the developmental and validation datasets (p < 0.05). Conclusions: Our results showed that lymph node size is a strong independent prognostic factor and that the new staging system, which incorporated lymph node size, provided good prognostic power, and discriminated effectively for patients with esophageal cancer undergoing CRT.« less

Focal versus diffuse anaplasia in Wilms tumor--new definitions with prognostic significance: a report from the National Wilms Tumor Study Group.

PubMed

Faria, P; Beckwith, J B; Mishra, K; Zuppan, C; Weeks, D A; Breslow, N; Green, D M

1996-08-01

Anaplasia, defined by the presence of extreme nuclear and mitotic atypia, is a potent marker of adverse prognosis in Wilms tumor (WT). Anaplastic WT cells apparently have increased resistance to therapy rather than increased aggressiveness. The distribution of anaplasia should therefore have critical prognostic relevance. The original definitions for focal anaplasia (FA) and diffuse anaplasia (DA) were based on quantitative rather than topographical criteria and lacked prognostic significance. A new definition was developed based on the distribution of anaplastic changes within the tumor: FA applies only to tumors with anaplasia confined to one or a few discrete loci within the primary tumor, with no anaplasia or marked nuclear atypia elsewhere. This revised definition was evaluated in 165 cases with anaplastic WT entered on the third and fourth National Wilms Tumor Study. Only three relapses and one death occurred among 39 cases with FA, regardless of tumor stage, a result comparable to that for nonanaplastic WT. Eight children with metastases at diagnosis and FA in the primary tumor were alive and free of relapse; 22 of 23 children with stage IV DA WT died of tumor. This new definition reinforces the importance of carefully documenting the exact site from which each tumor section is obtained.

Clinical outcome and molecular characterization of brain metastases from esophageal and gastric cancer: a systematic review.

PubMed

Ghidini, Michele; Petrelli, Fausto; Hahne, Jens Claus; De Giorgi, Annamaria; Toppo, Laura; Pizzo, Claudio; Ratti, Margherita; Barni, Sandro; Passalacqua, Rodolfo; Tomasello, Gianluca

2017-04-01

The aim of the study was to collect the available data on central nervous system (CNS) metastases from esophageal and gastric cancer. A PubMed, EMBASE, SCOPUS, Web of Science, LILACS, Ovid and Cochrane Library search was performed. Thirty-seven studies including 779 patients were considered. Among the data extracted, treatment of tumor and brain metastases (BMs), time to BMs development, number and subsite, extracerebral metastases rate, median overall survival (OS) and prognostic factors were included. For esophageal cancer, the median OS from diagnosis of BMs was 4.2 months. Prognostic factors for OS included: performance status, multimodal therapy, adjuvant chemotherapy, single BM, brain only disease and surgery. For gastric cancer, median OS was 2.4 months. Prognostic factors for OS included: recursive partitioning analysis class 2, stereotactic radiosurgery (SRT) and use of intrathecal therapy. HER2-positive gastric cancer was shown to be associated with a higher risk and shorter time to CNS relapse. Patients harboring BMs from gastric and esophageal tumors, except cases with single lesions that are treated aggressively, have a poor prognosis. SRT (plus or minus surgery and whole brain radiotherapy) seems to give better results in terms of longer OS after brain relapse.

Multivariate analysis of prognostic factors in synovial sarcoma.

PubMed

Koh, Kyoung Hwan; Cho, Eun Yoon; Kim, Dong Wook; Seo, Sung Wook

2009-11-01

Many studies have described the diversity of synovial sarcoma in terms of its biological characteristics and clinical features. Moreover, much effort has been expended on the identification of prognostic factors because of unpredictable behaviors of synovial sarcomas. However, with the exception of tumor size, published results have been inconsistent. We attempted to identify independent risk factors using survival analysis. Forty-one consecutive patients with synovial sarcoma were prospectively followed from January 1997 to March 2008. Overall and progression-free survival for age, sex, tumor size, tumor location, metastasis at presentation, histologic subtype, chemotherapy, radiation therapy, and resection margin were analyzed, and standard multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was used to evaluate potential prognostic factors. Tumor size (>5 cm), nonlimb-based tumors, metastasis at presentation, and a monophasic subtype were associated with poorer overall survival. Multivariate analysis showed metastasis at presentation and monophasic tumor subtype affected overall survival. For the progression-free survival, monophasic subtype was found to be only 1 prognostic factor. The study confirmed that histologic subtype is the single most important independent prognostic factors of synovial sarcoma regardless of tumor stage.

Prospective Validation of Objective Prognostic Score for Advanced Cancer Inpatients in South Korea: A Multicenter Study.

PubMed

Yoon, Seok Joon; Suh, Sang-Yeon; Lee, Yong Joo; Park, Jeanno; Hwang, Sunwook; Lee, Sanghee Shiny; Ahn, Hong Yup; Koh, Su-Jin; Park, Keon Uk

2017-01-01

Objective Prognostic Score (OPS) was developed as an easy and simple prognosticating tool in South Korea. It has been validated retrospectively in a single center in South Korea. We aimed to validate the OPS prospectively for advanced cancer inpatients in South Korea using a multicenter study. This was a prospective cohort study. We enrolled 243 advanced cancer patients admitted in five palliative care units in South Korea from May 2013 till March 2015. Seven members of the Korean Palliative Medicine Research Network who are experts of palliative care led the study. Clinical variables (dyspnea/anorexia/performance status) and laboratory variables (total leukocyte counts/serum total bilirubin/serum creatinine/lactate dehydrogenase) were collected at the enrollment. Survival time was calculated as days from enrollment to death during admission. A total of 217 patients were included in the final analysis (feasibility: 89.3%). Survival time of the higher OPS group (OPS ≥3) and the lower OPS group (OPS <3) was 10.0 (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.72-12.28) days and 32.0 (95% CI 25.44-38.56) days, respectively. There were significant differences between the 2 groups (p < 0.001). Overall accuracy of OPS ≥3 for predicting survival less than three weeks was 71.0%. OPS was successfully validated using a prospective multicenter study in South Korea. It is a useful method to predict three-week survival of Korean inpatients with advanced cancer.

A retrospective study of feline gastric lymphoma in 16 chemotherapy-treated cats.

PubMed

Gustafson, Tanya L; Villamil, Armando; Taylor, Bonnie E; Flory, Andrea

2014-01-01

The purposes of this study were to describe cases of feline gastric lymphoma with regards to signalment, clinical presentation, laboratory and ancillary study findings, response to therapy, and outcomes and to identify prognostic variables. Sixteen cats with stage I and II gastric lymphoma treated with chemotherapy were included in this study. Seventy-five percent of cats experienced remission. Overall, first remission duration was 108 days. Response to treatment was prognostic as in other types of feline lymphoma. Cats with a complete remission (CR) had longer survival times compared with cats with a partial remission (PR). Sex and treatment with a rescue protocol were found to be prognostic with castrated males having longer survivals than spayed females. Cats that received rescue chemotherapy had shorter first remission durations than those that did not. Prior treatment with steroids and stage were not found to be significant prognostic variables. This study characterizes gastric lymphoma treated with chemotherapy in cats. Further studies are needed to determine the comparative efficacy of surgical and chemotherapeutic treatments for feline gastric lymphoma.

Canine distemper virus antigen detection in external epithelia of recently vaccinated, sick dogs by fluorescence microscopy is a valuable prognostic indicator.

PubMed

Kapil, Sanjay; Neel, Tina

2015-02-01

Currently, there are no reliable predictors of the clinical outcomes of domesticated dogs that have been recently vaccinated against canine distemper virus (CDV) and develop respiratory disease. In this study, vaccinated dogs from Oklahoma City that were showing clinical signs of respiratory disease were evaluated for CDV antigen using a direct fluorescent antibody test (FAT). Clinical outcomes after standard symptomatic therapy for respiratory disease were recorded, and a statistical analysis of the results was performed. We present our study showing that CDV FAT results were predictive of clinical recovery (prognostic indicator, prospects of clinical recovery) among vaccinated dogs showing clinical signs of respiratory disease. Negative CDV FAT results equated to 80% chances of recovery after symptomatic therapy, compared to 55% chances of recovery when the CDV FAT results were positive. Based on the results of this study, we show that veterinarians can make better informed decisions about the clinical outcomes of suspected CDV cases, with 2-h turnaround times, by using the CDV FAT. Thus, antemortem examination with the CDV FAT on external epithelia of recently vaccinated, sick dogs is a clinically useful diagnostic test and valuable prognostic indicator for veterinarians. Application of the CDV FAT to these samples avoids unnecessary euthanasia of dogs with suspected CDV. Copyright © 2015, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

ExSurv: A Web Resource for Prognostic Analyses of Exons Across Human Cancers Using Clinical Transcriptomes

PubMed Central

Hashemikhabir, Seyedsasan; Budak, Gungor; Janga, Sarath Chandra

2016-01-01

Survival analysis in biomedical sciences is generally performed by correlating the levels of cellular components with patients’ clinical features as a common practice in prognostic biomarker discovery. While the common and primary focus of such analysis in cancer genomics so far has been to identify the potential prognostic genes, alternative splicing – a posttranscriptional regulatory mechanism that affects the functional form of a protein due to inclusion or exclusion of individual exons giving rise to alternative protein products, has increasingly gained attention due to the prevalence of splicing aberrations in cancer transcriptomes. Hence, uncovering the potential prognostic exons can not only help in rationally designing exon-specific therapeutics but also increase specificity toward more personalized treatment options. To address this gap and to provide a platform for rational identification of prognostic exons from cancer transcriptomes, we developed ExSurv (https://exsurv.soic.iupui.edu), a web-based platform for predicting the survival contribution of all annotated exons in the human genome using RNA sequencing-based expression profiles for cancer samples from four cancer types available from The Cancer Genome Atlas. ExSurv enables users to search for a gene of interest and shows survival probabilities for all the exons associated with a gene and found to be significant at the chosen threshold. ExSurv also includes raw expression values across the cancer cohort as well as the survival plots for prognostic exons. Our analysis of the resulting prognostic exons across four cancer types revealed that most of the survival-associated exons are unique to a cancer type with few processes such as cell adhesion, carboxylic, fatty acid metabolism, and regulation of T-cell signaling common across cancer types, possibly suggesting significant differences in the posttranscriptional regulatory pathways contributing to prognosis. PMID:27528797

Amino acid tracers in PET imaging of diffuse low-grade gliomas: a systematic review of preoperative applications.

PubMed

Näslund, Olivia; Smits, Anja; Förander, Petter; Laesser, Mats; Bartek, Jiri; Gempt, Jens; Liljegren, Ann; Daxberg, Eva-Lotte; Jakola, Asgeir Store

2018-05-24

Positron emission tomography (PET) imaging using amino acid tracers has in recent years become widely used in the diagnosis and prediction of disease course in diffuse low-grade gliomas (LGG). However, implications of preoperative PET for treatment and prognosis in this patient group have not been systematically studied. The aim of this systematic review was to evaluate the preoperative diagnostic and prognostic value of amino acid PET in suspected diffuse LGG. Medline, Cochrane Library, and Embase databases were systematically searched using keywords "PET," "low-grade glioma," and "amino acids tracers" with their respective synonyms. Out of 2137 eligible studies, 28 met the inclusion criteria. Increased amino acid uptake (lesion/brain) was consistently reported among included studies; in 25-92% of subsequently histopathology-verified LGG, in 83-100% of histopathology-verified HGG, and also in some non-neoplastic lesions. No consistent results were found in studies reporting hot spot areas on PET in MRI-suspected LGG. Thus, the diagnostic value of amino acid PET imaging in suspected LGG has proven difficult to interpret, showing clear overlap and inconsistencies among reported results. Similarly, the results regarding the prognostic value of PET in suspected LGG and the correlation between uptake ratios and the molecular tumor status of LGG were conflicting. This systematic review illustrates the difficulties with prognostic studies presenting data on group-level without adjustment for established clinical prognostic factors, leading to a loss of additional prognostic information. We conclude that the prognostic value of PET is limited to analysis of histological subgroups of LGG and is probably strongest when using kinetic analysis of dynamic FET uptake parameters.

Reduced high-density lipoprotein cholesterol: A valuable, independent prognostic marker in peripheral arterial disease.

PubMed

Martinez-Aguilar, Esther; Orbe, Josune; Fernández-Montero, Alejandro; Fernández-Alonso, Sebastián; Rodríguez, Jose A; Fernández-Alonso, Leopoldo; Páramo, Jose A; Roncal, Carmen

2017-11-01

The prognosis of patients with peripheral arterial disease (PAD) is characterized by an exceptionally high risk for myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and death; however, studies in search of new prognostic biomarkers in PAD are scarce. Even though low levels of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) have been associated with higher risk of cardiovascular (CV) complications and death in different atherosclerotic diseases, recent epidemiologic studies have challenged its prognostic utility. The aim of this study was to test the predictive value of HDL-C as a risk factor for ischemic events or death in symptomatic PAD patients. Clinical and demographic parameters of 254 symptomatic PAD patients were recorded. Amputation, ischemic coronary disease, cerebrovascular disease, and all-cause mortality were recorded during a mean follow-up of 2.7 years. Multivariate analyses showed that disease severity (critical limb ischemia) was significantly reduced in patients with normal HDL-C levels compared with the group with low HDL-C levels (multivariate analysis odds ratio, 0.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.03-0.24). A decreased risk for mortality (hazard ratio, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.21-0.99) and major adverse CV events (hazard ratio, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.16-0.86) was also found in patients with normal vs reduced levels of HDL-C in both Cox proportional hazards models and Kaplan-Meier estimates, after adjustment for confounding factors. Reduced HDL-C levels were significantly associated with higher risk for development of CV complications as well as with mortality in PAD patients. These findings highlight the usefulness of this simple test for early identification of PAD patients at high risk for development of major CV events. Copyright © 2017 Society for Vascular Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Modified MELD Model for Chinese Pre-ACLF and ACLF Patients and It Reveals Poor Prognosis in Pre-ACLF Patients

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yimin; Guo, Yongzheng; Xu, Xiaowei; Yang, Qian; Du, Weibo; Liu, Xiaoli; Chen, Yuemei; Huang, Jianrong; Li, Lanjuan

2013-01-01

Background & Aims Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is one of the most deadly, prevalent, and costly diseases in Asia. However, no prognostic model has been developed that is based specifically on data gathered from Asian patients with ACLF. The aim of the present study was to quantify the survival time of ACLF among Asians and to develop a prognostic model to estimate the probability of death related to ACLF. Methods We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study to analyze clinical data from 857 patients with ACLF/pre-ACLF who did not undergo liver transplantation. Kaplan–Meier and Cox proportional hazards regression model were used to estimate survival rates and survival affected factors. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) was used to evaluate the performance of the models for predicting early mortality. Results The mortality rates among patients with pre-ACLF at 12 weeks and 24 weeks after diagnosis were 30.5% and 33.2%, respectively. The mortality rates among patients with early-stage ACLF at 12 weeks and 24 weeks after diagnosis were 33.9% and 37.1%, respectively. The difference in survival between pre-ACLF patients and patients in the early stage of ACLF was not statistically significant. The prognostic model identified 5 independent factors significantly associated with survival among patients with ACLF and pre-ACLF: the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score; age, hepatic encephalopathy; triglyceride level and platelet count. Conclusion The findings of the present study suggest that the Chinese diagnostic criteria of ACLF might be broadened, thus enabling implementation of a novel model to predict ACLF-related death after comprehensive medical treatment. PMID:23755119

[The radiobiologycal approaches of the individual prognosis of the radiotherapy efficacy of the tumor deseases].

PubMed

Pelevina, I I; Dar'ialova, S L; Sergeeva, N S; Saenko, A S

2005-01-01

The results of several years standing investigations about the develop of the way to the individual prognosis of tumour sensitivity to radiotherapy are brought. The initial level of proliferative activity of different tumour types of individual patients--carcinoma of oropharingeal zone, stomach, oesophagys, rectum, glioblastoma have been studied. It was shown that for the several tumours the high initial level of proliferative activity is the indication of good prognosis. For the all tumours studied the significant decreasing of proliferative activity in the beginning of the radiation treatment is the good prognostic factor of tumour regression (decreasing of volume on 70-100%) or the strong damages of tumour tissue (III-IV grade of patomorphosis). The data of literature of last years are discussed and the proposal is that for the determination of prognostic factors the multiparameter analysis is need.

Merkel Cell Carcinoma: An Update of Key Imaging Techniques, Prognostic Factors, Treatment, and Follow-up.

PubMed

Llombart, B; Kindem, S; Chust, M

2017-03-01

Merkel cell carcinoma, though rare, is one of the most aggressive tumors a dermatologist faces. More than a third of patients with this diagnosis die from the disease. Numerous researchers have attempted to identify clinical and pathologic predictors to guide prognosis, but their studies have produced inconsistent results. Because the incidence of Merkel cell carcinoma is low and it appears in patients of advanced age, prospective studies have not been done and no clear treatment algorithm has been developed. This review aims to provide an exhaustive, up-to-date account of Merkel cell carcinoma for the dermatologist. We describe prognostic factors and the imaging techniques that are most appropriate for evaluating disease spread. We also discuss current debates on treating Merkel cell carcinoma. Copyright © 2016 AEDV. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Psychoneuroimmunology of mental disorders.

PubMed

Soria, Virginia; Uribe, Javiera; Salvat-Pujol, Neus; Palao, Diego; Menchón, José Manuel; Labad, Javier

The immune system is a key element in the organism's defence system and participates in the maintenance of homeostasis. There is growing interest in the aetiopathogenic and prognostic implications of the immune system in mental disorders, as previous studies suggest the existence of a dysregulation of the immune response and a pro-inflammatory state in patients with mental disorders, as well as an increased prevalence of neuropsychiatric symptoms in patients suffering from autoimmune diseases or receiving immune treatments. This study aims to conduct a narrative review of the scientific literature on the role of Psychoneuroimmunology in mental disorders, with special focus on diagnostic, prognostic and therapeutic issues. The development of this body of knowledge may bring in the future important advances in the vulnerability, aetiopathogenic mechanisms, diagnosis and treatment of some mental disorders. Copyright © 2017 SEP y SEPB. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Neuroimaging biomarkers of preterm brain injury: toward developing the preterm connectome

PubMed Central

Panigrahy, Ashok; Wisnowski, Jessica L.; Furtado, Andre; Lepore, Natasha; Paquette, Lisa; Bluml, Stefan

2013-01-01

For typically developing infants, the last trimester of fetal development extending into the first post-natal months is a period of rapid brain development. Infants who are born premature face significant risk of brain injury (e.g., intraventricular or germinal matrix hemorrhage and periventricular leukomalacia) from complications in the perinatal period and also potential long-term neurodevelopmental disabilities because these early injuries can interrupt normal brain maturation. Neuroimaging has played an important role in the diagnosis and management of the preterm infant. Both cranial US and conventional MRI techniques are useful in diagnostic and prognostic evaluation of preterm brain development and injury. Cranial US is highly sensitive for intraventricular hemorrhage IVH and provides prognostic information regarding cerebral palsy. Data are limited regarding the utility of MRI as a routine screening instrument for brain injury for all preterm infants. However, MRI might provide diagnostic or prognostic information regarding PVL and other types of preterm brain injury in the setting of specific clinical indications and risk factors. Further development of advanced MR techniques like volumetric MR imaging, diffusion tensor imaging, metabolic imaging (MR spectroscopy) and functional connectivity are necessary to provide additional insight into the molecular, cellular and systems processes that underlie brain development and outcome in the preterm infant. The adult concept of the “connectome” is also relevant in understanding brain networks that underlie the preterm brain. Knowledge of the preterm connectome will provide a framework for understanding preterm brain function and dysfunction, and potentially even a roadmap for brain plasticity. By combining conventional imaging techniques with more advanced techniques, neuroimaging findings will likely be used not only as diagnostic and prognostic tools, but also as biomarkers for long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes, instruments to assess the efficacy of neuroprotective agents and maneuvers in the NICU, and as screening instruments to appropriately select infants for longitudinal developmental interventions. PMID:22395719

LPL is the strongest prognostic factor in a comparative analysis of RNA-based markers in early chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

PubMed

Kaderi, Mohd Arifin; Kanduri, Meena; Buhl, Anne Mette; Sevov, Marie; Cahill, Nicola; Gunnarsson, Rebeqa; Jansson, Mattias; Smedby, Karin Ekström; Hjalgrim, Henrik; Jurlander, Jesper; Juliusson, Gunnar; Mansouri, Larry; Rosenquist, Richard

2011-08-01

The expression levels of LPL, ZAP70, TCL1A, CLLU1 and MCL1 have recently been proposed as prognostic factors in chronic lymphocytic leukemia. However, few studies have systematically compared these different RNA-based markers. Using real-time quantitative PCR, we measured the mRNA expression levels of these genes in unsorted samples from 252 newly diagnosed chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients and correlated our data with established prognostic markers (for example Binet stage, CD38, IGHV gene mutational status and genomic aberrations) and clinical outcome. High expression levels of all RNA-based markers, except MCL1, predicted shorter overall survival and time to treatment, with LPL being the most significant. In multivariate analysis including the RNA-based markers, LPL expression was the only independent prognostic marker for overall survival and time to treatment. When studying LPL expression and the established markers, LPL expression retained its independent prognostic strength for overall survival. All of the RNA-based markers, albeit with varying ability, added prognostic information to established markers, with LPL expression giving the most significant results. Notably, high LPL expression predicted a worse outcome in good-prognosis subgroups, such as patients with mutated IGHV genes, Binet stage A, CD38 negativity or favorable cytogenetics. In particular, the combination of LPL expression and CD38 could further stratify Binet stage A patients. LPL expression is the strongest RNA-based prognostic marker in chronic lymphocytic leukemia that could potentially be applied to predict outcome in the clinical setting, particularly in the large group of patients with favorable prognosis.

Prognostic role of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in gastric cancer: a meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Shao, Yingjie; Xu, Bin; Chen, Lujun; Zhou, Qi; Hu, Wenwei; Zhang, Dachuan; Wu, Changping; Tao, Min; Zhu, Yibei; Jiang, Jingting

2017-01-01

Background In patients with gastric cancer, the prognostic value of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) is still controversial. A meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the prognostic value of TILs in gastric cancer. Materials and methods We identify studies from PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library to assess the prognostic effect of TILs in patients with gastric cancer. Fixed-effects models or random-effects models were used estimate the pooled hazard ratios (HRs) for overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS), which depend on the heterogeneity. Results A total of 31 observational studies including 4,185 patients were enrolled. For TILs subsets, the amount of CD8+, FOXP3+, CD3+, CD57+, CD20+, CD45RO+, Granzyme B+ and T-bet+ lymphocytes was significantly associated with improved survival (P < 0.05); moreover, the amount of CD3+ TILs in intra-tumoral compartment (IT) was the most significant prognostic marker (pooled HR = 0.52; 95% CI = 0.43–0.63; P < 0.001). However, CD4+ TILs was not statistically associated with patients’ survival. FOXP3+ TILs showed bidirectional prognostic roles which had positive effect in IT (pooled HR = 1.57; 95% CI = 1.04–2.37; P = 0.033) and negative effect in extra-tumoral compartment (ET) (pooled HR = 0.76; 95% CI = 0.60–0.96; P = 0.022). Conclusions This meta-analysis suggests that some TIL subsets could serve as prognostic biomarkers in gastric cancer. High-quality randomized controlled trials are needed to decide if these TILs could serve as targets for immunotherapy in gastric cancer. PMID:28915679

Contemporary approach to neurologic prognostication of coma after cardiac arrest.

PubMed

Ben-Hamouda, Nawfel; Taccone, Fabio S; Rossetti, Andrea O; Oddo, Mauro

2014-11-01

Coma after cardiac arrest (CA) is an important cause of admission to the ICU. Prognosis of post-CA coma has significantly improved over the past decade, particularly because of aggressive postresuscitation care and the use of therapeutic targeted temperature management (TTM). TTM and sedatives used to maintain controlled cooling might delay neurologic reflexes and reduce the accuracy of clinical examination. In the early ICU phase, patients' good recovery may often be indistinguishable (based on neurologic examination alone) from patients who eventually will have a poor prognosis. Prognostication of post-CA coma, therefore, has evolved toward a multimodal approach that combines neurologic examination with EEG and evoked potentials. Blood biomarkers (eg, neuron-specific enolase [NSE] and soluble 100-β protein) are useful complements for coma prognostication; however, results vary among commercial laboratory assays, and applying one single cutoff level (eg, > 33 μg/L for NSE) for poor prognostication is not recommended. Neuroimaging, mainly diffusion MRI, is emerging as a promising tool for prognostication, but its precise role needs further study before it can be widely used. This multimodal approach might reduce false-positive rates of poor prognosis, thereby providing optimal prognostication of comatose CA survivors. The aim of this review is to summarize studies and the principal tools presently available for outcome prediction and to describe a practical approach to the multimodal prognostication of coma after CA, with a particular focus on neuromonitoring tools. We also propose an algorithm for the optimal use of such multimodal tools during the early ICU phase of post-CA coma.

A prognostic mutation panel for predicting cancer recurrence in stages II and III colorectal cancer.

PubMed

Sho, Shonan; Court, Colin M; Winograd, Paul; Russell, Marcia M; Tomlinson, James S

2017-12-01

Approximately 20-40% of stage II/III colorectal cancer (CRC) patients develop relapse. Clinicopathological factors alone are limited in detecting these patients, resulting in potential under/over-treatment. We sought to identify a prognostic tumor mutational profile that could predict CRC recurrence. Whole-exome sequencing data were obtained for 207 patients with stage II/III CRC from The Cancer Genome Atlas. Mutational landscape in relapse-free versus relapsed cohort was compared using Fisher's exact test, followed by multivariate Cox regression to identify genes associated with cancer recurrence. Bootstrap-validation was used to examine internal/external validity. We identified five prognostic genes (APAF1, DIAPH2, NTNG1, USP7, and VAV2), which were combined to form a prognostic mutation panel. Patients with ≥1 mutation(s) within this five-gene panel had worse prognosis (3-yr relapse-free survival [RFS]: 53.0%), compared to patients with no mutation (3-yr RFS: 84.3%). In multivariate analysis, the five-gene panel remained prognostic for cancer recurrence independent of stage and high-risk features (hazard ratio 3.63, 95%CI [1.93-6.83], P < 0.0001). Furthermore, its prognostic accuracy was superior to the American Joint Commission on Cancer classification (concordance-index: 0.70 vs 0.54). Our proposed mutation panel identifies CRC patients at high-risk for recurrence, which may help guide adjuvant therapy and post-operative surveillance protocols. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Children's Hepatic tumors International Collaboration (CHIC): Novel global rare tumor database yields new prognostic factors in hepatoblastoma and becomes a research model

PubMed Central

Czauderna, Piotr; Haeberle, Beate; Hiyama, Eiso; Rangaswami, Arun; Krailo, Mark; Maibach, Rudolf; Rinaldi, Eugenia; Feng, Yurong; Aronson, Daniel; Malogolowkin, Marcio; Yoshimura, Kenichi; Leuschner, Ivo; Lopez-Terrada, Dolores; Hishiki, Tomoro; Perilongo, Giorgio; von Schweinitz, Dietrich; Schmid, Irene; Watanabe, Kenichiro; Derosa, Marisa; Meyers, Rebecka

2016-01-01

Introduction Contemporary state-of-the-art management of cancer is increasingly defined by individualized treatment strategies. For very rare tumors, like hepatoblastoma, the development of biologic markers, and the identification of reliable prognostic risk factors for tailoring treatment, remains very challenging. The Children's Hepatic tumors International Collaboration (CHIC) is a novel international response to this challenge. Methods Four multicenter trial groups in the world, who have performed prospective controlled studies of hepatoblastoma over the past two decades (COG; SIOPEL; GPOH; and JPLT), joined forces to form the CHIC consortium. With the support of the data management group CINECA, CHIC developed a centralized online platform where data from eight completed hepatoblastoma trials were merged to form a database of 1605 hepatoblastoma cases treated between 1988 and 2008. The resulting dataset is described and the relationships between selected patient and tumor characteristics, and risk for adverse disease outcome (event-free survival; EFS) are examined. Results Significantly increased risk for EFS-event was noted for advanced PRETEXT group, macrovascular venous or portal involvement, contiguous extrahepatic disease, primary tumor multifocality and tumor rupture at enrollment. Higher age (≥8 years), low AFP (<100 ng/ml) and metastatic disease were associated with the worst outcome. Conclusion We have identified novel prognostic factors for hepatoblastoma, as well as confirmed established factors, that will be used to develop a future common global risk stratification system. The mechanics of developing the globally accessible web-based portal, building and refining the database, and performing this first statistical analysis has laid the foundation for future collaborative efforts. This is an important step for refining of the risk based grouping and approach to future treatment stratification, thus we think our collaboration offers a template for others to follow in the study of rare tumors and diseases. PMID:26655560

The Children's Hepatic tumors International Collaboration (CHIC): Novel global rare tumor database yields new prognostic factors in hepatoblastoma and becomes a research model.

PubMed

Czauderna, Piotr; Haeberle, Beate; Hiyama, Eiso; Rangaswami, Arun; Krailo, Mark; Maibach, Rudolf; Rinaldi, Eugenia; Feng, Yurong; Aronson, Daniel; Malogolowkin, Marcio; Yoshimura, Kenichi; Leuschner, Ivo; Lopez-Terrada, Dolores; Hishiki, Tomoro; Perilongo, Giorgio; von Schweinitz, Dietrich; Schmid, Irene; Watanabe, Kenichiro; Derosa, Marisa; Meyers, Rebecka

2016-01-01

Contemporary state-of-the-art management of cancer is increasingly defined by individualized treatment strategies. For very rare tumors, like hepatoblastoma, the development of biologic markers, and the identification of reliable prognostic risk factors for tailoring treatment, remains very challenging. The Children's Hepatic tumors International Collaboration (CHIC) is a novel international response to this challenge. Four multicenter trial groups in the world, who have performed prospective controlled studies of hepatoblastoma over the past two decades (COG; SIOPEL; GPOH; and JPLT), joined forces to form the CHIC consortium. With the support of the data management group CINECA, CHIC developed a centralized online platform where data from eight completed hepatoblastoma trials were merged to form a database of 1605 hepatoblastoma cases treated between 1988 and 2008. The resulting dataset is described and the relationships between selected patient and tumor characteristics, and risk for adverse disease outcome (event-free survival; EFS) are examined. Significantly increased risk for EFS-event was noted for advanced PRETEXT group, macrovascular venous or portal involvement, contiguous extrahepatic disease, primary tumor multifocality and tumor rupture at enrollment. Higher age (≥ 8 years), low AFP (<100 ng/ml) and metastatic disease were associated with the worst outcome. We have identified novel prognostic factors for hepatoblastoma, as well as confirmed established factors, that will be used to develop a future common global risk stratification system. The mechanics of developing the globally accessible web-based portal, building and refining the database, and performing this first statistical analysis has laid the foundation for future collaborative efforts. This is an important step for refining of the risk based grouping and approach to future treatment stratification, thus we think our collaboration offers a template for others to follow in the study of rare tumors and diseases. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Next-generation prognostic assessment for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

PubMed Central

Staton, Ashley D; Kof, Jean L; Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Flowers, Christopher R

2015-01-01

Current standard of care therapy for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) cures a majority of patients with additional benefit in salvage therapy and autologous stem cell transplant for patients who relapse. The next generation of prognostic models for DLBCL aims to more accurately stratify patients for novel therapies and risk-adapted treatment strategies. This review discusses the significance of host genetic and tumor genomic alterations seen in DLBCL, clinical and epidemiologic factors, and how each can be integrated into risk stratification algorithms. In the future, treatment prediction and prognostic model development and subsequent validation will require data from a large number of DLBCL patients to establish sufficient statistical power to correctly predict outcome. Novel modeling approaches can augment these efforts. PMID:26289217

Next-generation prognostic assessment for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma.

PubMed

Staton, Ashley D; Koff, Jean L; Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Flowers, Christopher R

2015-01-01

Current standard of care therapy for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) cures a majority of patients with additional benefit in salvage therapy and autologous stem cell transplant for patients who relapse. The next generation of prognostic models for DLBCL aims to more accurately stratify patients for novel therapies and risk-adapted treatment strategies. This review discusses the significance of host genetic and tumor genomic alterations seen in DLBCL, clinical and epidemiologic factors, and how each can be integrated into risk stratification algorithms. In the future, treatment prediction and prognostic model development and subsequent validation will require data from a large number of DLBCL patients to establish sufficient statistical power to correctly predict outcome. Novel modeling approaches can augment these efforts.

The Shifting Paradigm of Prognostic Factors of Colorectal Liver Metastases: From Tumor-Centered to Host Immune-Centered Factors

PubMed Central

Donadon, Matteo; Lleo, Ana; Di Tommaso, Luca; Soldani, Cristiana; Franceschini, Barbara; Roncalli, Massimo; Torzilli, Guido

2018-01-01

The determinants of prognosis in patients with colorectal liver metastases (CLM) have been traditionally searched among the tumoral factors, either of the primary colorectal tumor or of the CLM. While many different scoring systems have been developed based on those clinic-pathological factors with disparate results, there has been the introduction of genetic biological markers that added a theranostic perspective. More recently, other important elements, such as those factors related to the host immune system, have been proposed as determinants of prognosis of CLM patients. In the present work, we review the current prognostic factors of CLM patients as well as the burgeoning shifting paradigm of prognostication that relies on the host immune system. PMID:29892573

[Glycine-N-methyltransferase and Malignant Diseases of the Prostate].

PubMed

Heger, Z; Eckschlager, T; Stiborová, M; Adam, V

Prostate cancer (PC) constitutes a heterogeneous group of diseases with high prevalence rates that are still increasing, particularly in western countries. Since 1980, prostate specific antigen (PSA) and other diagnostic approaches have been used for PC screening; however, some of these approaches are often deemed painful and cause invasive damage of tissue. Therefore, molecular approaches to PC diagnosis are attracting increasing attention, potentially providing patients with less stressful situations and providing better diagnoses and even prognostic information. Recent metabolomic and genomic studies have suggested that biomolecules can be used as diagnostic or prognostic markers or as targets for the development of novel therapeutic modalities. One of these molecules is glycine-N-methyltransferase (GNMT), an enzyme that plays a pivotal role in the biochemical conversion of glycine to sarcosine. The link between this molecule (encoded by homonymous gene - GNMT) and PC has been confirmed at several levels, and thus GNMT can be considered a promising target for the development of advanced diagnostic and/or prognostic approaches. The aim of this study was to analyse the physiological role of GNMT and to examine in greater detail its connection with PC at different levels, including gene structure, gene expression, and metabolism, in which GNMT plays an important role, not only in controlling the methylation status of cells, but also the metabolism of folic acid and methionine. Last but not least, we discuss the importance of cellular methylation processes and the link between their aberrations and PC development.Key words: glycine - folic acid - metabolism - methylation - sarcosineThis work was supported by GA CR 16-18917S, League against Cancer Prague (project 2022015) and Czech Ministry of Health - RVO, UH Motol 00064203.The authors declare they have no potential confl icts of interest concerning drugs, products, or services used in the study.The Editorial Board declares that the manuscript met the ICMJE recommendation for biomedical papers.Submitted: 9. 2. 2016Accepted: 20. 3. 2016.

Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) User Guide

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Teubert, Christopher Allen; Daigle, Matthew John; Watkins, Jason; Sankararaman, Shankar; Goebel, Kai

2016-01-01

The Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) is a framework for applying prognostics. It makes applying prognostics easier by implementing many of the common elements across prognostic applications. The standard interface enables reuse of prognostic algorithms and models across systems using the GSAP framework.

Prognostic factors in breast phyllodes tumors: a nomogram based on a retrospective cohort study of 404 patients.

PubMed

Zhou, Zhi-Rui; Wang, Chen-Chen; Sun, Xiang-Jie; Yang, Zhao-Zhi; Chen, Xing-Xing; Shao, Zhi-Ming; Yu, Xiao-Li; Guo, Xiao-Mao

2018-04-01

The aim of this study was to explore the independent prognostic factors related to postoperative recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients with breast phyllodes tumors (PTBs). A retrospective analysis was conducted in Fudan University Shanghai Cancer Center. According to histological type, patients with benign PTBs were classified as a low-risk group, while borderline and malignant PTBs were classified as a high-risk group. The Cox regression model was adopted to identify factors affecting postoperative RFS in the two groups, and a nomogram was generated to predict recurrence-free survival at 1, 3, and 5 years. Among the 404 patients, 168 (41.6%) patients had benign PTB, 184 (45.5%) had borderline PTB, and 52 (12.9%) had malignant PTB. Fifty-five patients experienced postoperative local recurrence, including six benign cases, 26 borderline cases, and 22 malignant cases; the three histological types of PTB had local recurrence rates of 3.6%, 14.1%, and 42.3%, respectively. Stromal cell atypia was an independent prognostic factor for RFS in the low-risk group, while the surgical approach and tumor border were independent prognostic factors for RFS in the high-risk group, and patients receiving simple excision with an infiltrative tumor border had a higher recurrence rate. A nomogram developed based on clinicopathologic features and surgical approaches could predict recurrence-free survival at 1, 3, and 5 years. For high-risk patients, this predictive nomogram based on tumor border, tumor residue, mitotic activity, degree of stromal cell hyperplasia, and atypia can be applied for patient counseling and clinical management. The efficacy of adjuvant radiotherapy remains uncertain. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Metastasis-free interval in breast cancer patients: Thirty-year trends and time dependency of prognostic factors. A retrospective analysis based on a single institution experience.

PubMed

Houzé de l'Aulnoit, A; Rogoz, B; Pinçon, C; Houzé de l'Aulnoit, D

2018-02-01

Breast cancer remains the leading cause of cancer death in French women in spite of continuously improving management. The objectives of this study were to analyse trends in the metastasis-free interval over the past 30 years and to identify the prognostic factors of survival, while accounting for time dependency. A total of 1613 patients diagnosed with invasive non-metastatic breast cancer at Saint Vincent de Paul Hospital, Lille, France between 1977 and 2013, were followed for outcome (metastasis-free interval). Cohort entry time delay, a continuous temporal covariate, was defined to assess improvement of outcome. Data were analysed using the Cox proportional hazards model and presented as hazard ratio (HR). Metastatic disease developed during follow-up in 446 (27.6%) patients. Cohort entry time delay exhibited strong independent prognostic value while accounting for multiple prognostic factors including: tumour size (HR = 1.62, 95 %CI 1.37-1.91); rapid tumour growth (HR = 1.59, 95%CI 1.17-2.16); lymph node ratio (HR = 2.29, 95%CI 1.97-2.66); histological grade (grade 2 was significant only during the first 10 years after diagnosis, grade 3 and progesterone receptor status only during the first 5 years after diagnosis); and oestrogen receptor status (significant only during the first 8 years (HR = 0.75, 95%CI 0.58-0.96)). The current study showed an improvement in the prognosis of breast cancer patients over the past 30 years and pointed to the importance of evaluating covariates with time-varying effects. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prognostic Factors in Cholinesterase Inhibitor Poisoning.

PubMed

Sun, In O; Yoon, Hyun Ju; Lee, Kwang Young

2015-09-28

Organophosphates and carbamates are insecticides that are associated with high human mortality. The purpose of this study is to investigate the prognostic factors affecting survival in patients with cholinesterase inhibitor (CI) poisoning. This study included 92 patients with CI poisoning in the period from January 2005 to August 2013. We divided these patients into 2 groups (survivors vs. non-survivors), compared their clinical characteristics, and analyzed the predictors of survival. The mean age of the included patients was 56 years (range, 16-88). The patients included 57 (62%) men and 35 (38%) women. When we compared clinical characteristics between the survivor group (n=81, 88%) and non-survivor group (n=11, 12%), there were no differences in renal function, pancreatic enzymes, or serum cholinesterase level, except for serum bicarbonate level and APACHE II score. The serum bicarbonate level was lower in non-survivors than in survivors (12.45±2.84 vs. 18.36±4.73, P<0.01). The serum APACHE II score was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (24.36±5.22 vs. 12.07±6.67, P<0.01). The development of pneumonia during hospitalization was higher in non-survivors than in survivors (n=9, 82% vs. n=31, 38%, P<0.01). In multiple logistic regression analysis, serum bicarbonate concentration, APACHE II score, and pneumonia during hospitalization were the important prognostic factors in patients with CI poisoning. Serum bicarbonate and APACHE II score are useful prognostic factors in patients with CI poisoning. Furthermore, pneumonia during hospitalization was also important in predicting prognosis in patients with CI poisoning. Therefore, prevention and active treatment of pneumonia is important in the management of patients with CI poisoning.

Clinicopathological and Prognostic Analysis of Primary Gastrointestinal Stromal Tumor Presenting with Gastrointestinal Bleeding: a 10-Year Retrospective Study.

PubMed

Yin, Zhijie; Gao, Jinbo; Liu, Weizhen; Huang, Cheng; Shuai, Xiaoming; Wang, Guobin; Tao, Kaixiong; Zhang, Peng

2017-05-01

The objectives of this paper were to investigate the clinicopathological characteristics and prognostic factors of GI-bleeding GIST patients and explore whether GI bleeding is a risk factor for GIST relapse. Primary GIST patients with initial symptoms of GI bleeding or no GI bleeding were retrospectively studied. Up to 178 GI-bleeding GIST patients including 108 (60.7%) males and 70 (39.3%) females were evaluated for the clinicopathological characteristics. The stomach, small bowel, and colorectum were the tumor sites in 82 (46.1%), 85 (47.8%), and 11 (6.2%) patients. Of the 178 patients, 163 GI-bleeding patients had follow-up while another 363 patients from the total population presented without GI bleeding were followed up. Up to 526 patients who received postoperative follow-up were included in the survival analysis. Compared with the 363 non-GI-bleeding patients, GI-bleeding patients developed smaller tumors (P = 0.015) and had a longer relapse-free survival (RFS; P = 0.014). For the 163 GI-bleeding patients, a Cox regression analysis showed that the mitotic count and the platelet-lymphocyte ratio before surgery were independent prognostic predictors for poor outcome regarding RFS. For all 526 patients, a Cox regression analysis indicated that tumor location, mitotic index, platelet-lymphocyte ratio, and GI bleeding were independent prognosis predictors. Compared to non-GI-bleeding GIST patients, patients with GI bleeding were more likely to be male and to have more small intestine GISTs, smaller tumors, and a longer RFS. For GI-bleeding patients, mitotic count and platelet-lymphocyte ratio were independent prognostic indicators. GI bleeding served as a surrogate for smaller GIST and was a protective factor for GIST recurrence.

Can Diffusion-Weighted Imaging and Related Apparent Diffusion Coefficient be a Prognostic Value in Women With Breast Cancer?

PubMed

Rabasco, Paola; Caivano, Rocchina; Simeon, Vittorio; Dinardo, Giuseppina; Lotumolo, Antonella; Gioioso, Matilde; Villonio, Antonio; Iannelli, Giancarlo; D'Antuono, Felice; Zandolino, Alexis; Macarini, Luca; Guglielmi, Giuseppe; Cammarota, Aldo

2017-02-07

To analyze diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) and the related apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) in women with breast cancer, correlating these values with the presence at 3 years of distant metastases, and to demonstrate that DWI-Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) and related ADC values may represent a prognostic value in the study of women with breast cancer. Sixty women (aged 45-73 years) affected with breast cancer with a follow-up in 3 years were enrolled. On DWI, we obtained the ADC values, and these were correlated with the clinical condition of patients at 3 years. Moreover, tumour size, lymph node status, and molecular markers, including estrogens receptor, progesterone receptor, Ki-67 index, and human growth factor receptor 2 protein, were correlated with ADC values. This study was approved by the Scientific Committee of our institution. We considered patients with metastasis at 3 years (12 patients - 20%) and without metastasis (48 patients - 80%). The mean ADC value in patients with no metastases at 3 years was 1.06 ± 0.38, while for patients with metastases it was 0.74 ± 0.34 (p = .011). The receiver-operator curve analysis identified a value of 0.75 (<0.75 with risk to develop metastasis) as the best predictive cutoff for ADC values, with the highest sensitivity (81.25%) and higher specificity (66.67%). After regression analysis, ADC value, positivity to estrogen-progestin receptors, and presence of lymph nodes were the only prognostic factors found to be statistically significant. DWI-MRI and related ADC values may represent a prognostic value in women with breast cancer.

Disparities in breast cancer prognostic factors by race, insurance status, and education.

PubMed

DeSantis, Carol; Jemal, Ahmedin; Ward, Elizabeth

2010-09-01

Black women are more likely to be diagnosed with advanced stage and other less favorable breast cancer prognostic factors than white women. The aim of this study was to examine the extent to which markers of socioeconomic position accounts for black-white differences in these factors. Our study included 193,969 women diagnosed with invasive breast cancers during 2004-2005 from the National Cancer Database, which represents about 72% of all patients with cancer treated in the United States. Compared to white women, black women are more likely to be diagnosed with breast tumors that are less differentiated (odds ratio (OR) = 2.55, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.44-2.66), hormone receptor negative (OR = 2.29, 95% CI 2.22-2.37), large (OR = 1.87, 95% CI 1.80-1.95), metastatic (OR = 1.89, 95% CI 1.78-2.00), and lymph node-positive (OR = 1.44, 95% CI 1.40-1.48). In multivariable analyses, adjustment for insurance and area-level educational attainment explained 31-39% of the differences in tumor size and metastasis, but only about 14% of the differences in grade and hormone receptors. After accounting for race and other covariates, uninsured women remained 3.66 (95% CI 3.30-4.07) times more likely to have metastasis and 2.37 (95% CI 2.17-2.58) times more likely to have large tumors compared to privately insured women. Similarly, the risk of having breast cancer with less favorable prognostic factors increased as area-level educational attainment decreased. Extending health insurance coverage to all women is likely to have an effect on reducing racial disparities in the development of breast cancers with poor prognostic factors.

Diagnostic accuracy and prognostic significance of blood fibrosis tests and liver stiffness measurement by FibroScan in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

PubMed

Boursier, Jérôme; Vergniol, Julien; Guillet, Anne; Hiriart, Jean-Baptiste; Lannes, Adrien; Le Bail, Brigitte; Michalak, Sophie; Chermak, Faiza; Bertrais, Sandrine; Foucher, Juliette; Oberti, Frédéric; Charbonnier, Maude; Fouchard-Hubert, Isabelle; Rousselet, Marie-Christine; Calès, Paul; de Lédinghen, Victor

2016-09-01

NAFLD is highly prevalent but only a small subset of patients develop advanced liver fibrosis with impaired liver-related prognosis. We aimed to compare blood fibrosis tests and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by FibroScan for the diagnosis of liver fibrosis and the evaluation of prognosis in NAFLD. Diagnostic accuracy was evaluated in a cross-sectional study including 452 NAFLD patients with liver biopsy (NASH-CRN fibrosis stage), LSM, and eight blood fibrosis tests (BARD, NAFLD fibrosis score, FibroMeter(NAFLD), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), FIB4, FibroTest, Hepascore, FibroMeter(V2G)). Prognostic accuracy was evaluated in a longitudinal study including 360 NAFLD patients. LSM and FibroMeter(V2G) were the two best-performing tests in the cross-sectional study: AUROCs for advanced fibrosis (F3/4) were, respectively, 0.831±0.019 and 0.817±0.020 (p⩽0.041 vs. other tests); rates of patients with ⩾90% negative/positive predictive values for F3/4 were 56.4% and 46.7% (p<0.001 vs. other tests); Obuchowski indexes were 0.834±0.014 and 0.798±0.016 (p⩽0.036 vs. other tests). Two fibrosis classifications were developed to precisely estimate the histological fibrosis stage from LSM or FibroMeter(V2G) results without liver biopsy (diagnostic accuracy, respectively: 80.8% vs. 77.4%, p=0.190). Kaplan-Meier curves in the longitudinal study showed that both classifications categorised NAFLD patients into subgroups with significantly different prognoses (p<0.001): the higher was the class of the fibrosis classification, the worse was the prognosis. LSM and FibroMeter(V2G) were the most accurate of nine evaluated tests for the non-invasive diagnosis of liver fibrosis in NAFLD. LSM and FibroMeter(V2G) fibrosis classifications help physicians estimate both fibrosis stage and patient prognosis in clinical practice. The amount of liver fibrosis is the main determinant of the liver-related prognosis in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). We evaluated eight blood tests and FibroScan in a cross-sectional diagnostic study and found that FibroScan and the blood test FibroMeter(V2G) were the two most accurate tests for the non-invasive evaluation of liver fibrosis in NAFLD. A longitudinal prognostic study showed these two tests initially developed for the diagnosis are also prognostic markers as they allow for the stratification of NAFLD patients in several subgroups with significantly different prognosis. Copyright © 2016 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A new extranodal scoring system based on the prognostically relevant extranodal sites in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma, not otherwise specified treated with chemoimmunotherapy.

PubMed

Hwang, Hee Sang; Yoon, Dok Hyun; Suh, Cheolwon; Huh, Jooryung

2016-08-01

Extranodal involvement is a well-known prognostic factor in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCL). Nevertheless, the prognostic impact of the extranodal scoring system included in the conventional international prognostic index (IPI) has been questioned in an era where rituximab treatment has become widespread. We investigated the prognostic impacts of individual sites of extranodal involvement in 761 patients with DLBCL who received rituximab-based chemoimmunotherapy. Subsequently, we established a new extranodal scoring system based on extranodal sites, showing significant prognostic correlation, and compared this system with conventional scoring systems, such as the IPI and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network-IPI (NCCN-IPI). An internal validation procedure, using bootstrapped samples, was also performed for both univariate and multivariate models. Using multivariate analysis with a backward variable selection, we found nine extranodal sites (the liver, lung, spleen, central nervous system, bone marrow, kidney, skin, adrenal glands, and peritoneum) that remained significant for use in the final model. Our newly established extranodal scoring system, based on these sites, was better correlated with patient survival than standard scoring systems, such as the IPI and the NCCN-IPI. Internal validation by bootstrapping demonstrated an improvement in model performance of our modified extranodal scoring system. Our new extranodal scoring system, based on the prognostically relevant sites, may improve the performance of conventional prognostic models of DLBCL in the rituximab era and warrants further external validation using large study populations.

Development, Feasibility, and Small-Scale Implementation of a Web-Based Prognostic Tool—Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Cancer Survival Calculator

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Background Population datasets and the Internet are playing an ever-growing role in the way cancer information is made available to providers, patients, and their caregivers. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Cancer Survival Calculator (SEER*CSC) is a Web-based cancer prognostic tool that uses SEER data, a large population dataset, to provide physicians with highly valid, evidence-based prognostic estimates for increasing shared decision-making and improving patient-provider communication of complex health information. Objective The aim of this study was to develop, test, and implement SEER*CSC. Methods An iterative approach was used to develop the SEER*CSC. Based on input from cancer patient advocacy groups and physicians, an initial version of the tool was developed. Next, providers from 4 health care delivery systems were recruited to do formal usability testing of SEER*CSC. A revised version of SEER*CSC was then implemented in two health care delivery sites using a real-world clinical implementation approach, and usage data were collected. Post-implementation follow-up interviews were conducted with site champions. Finally, patients from two cancer advocacy groups participated in usability testing. Results Overall feedback of SEER*CSC from both providers and patients was positive, with providers noting that the tool was professional and reliable, and patients finding it to be informational and helpful to use when discussing their diagnosis with their provider. However, use during the small-scale implementation was low. Reasons for low usage included time to enter data, not having treatment options in the tool, and the tool not being incorporated into the electronic health record (EHR). Patients found the language in its current version to be too complex. Conclusions The implementation and usability results showed that participants were enthusiastic about the use and features of SEER*CSC, but sustained implementation in a real-world clinical setting faced significant challenges. As a result of these findings, SEER*CSC is being redesigned with more accessible language for a public facing release. Meta-tools, which put different tools in context of each other, are needed to assist in understanding the strengths and limitations of various tools and their place in the clinical decision-making pathway. The continued development and eventual release of prognostic tools should include feedback from multidisciplinary health care teams, various stakeholder groups, patients, and caregivers. PMID:28729232

Independent Prognostic Value of Serum Markers in Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphoma in the Era of the NCCN-IPI.

PubMed

Melchardt, Thomas; Troppan, Katharina; Weiss, Lukas; Hufnagl, Clemens; Neureiter, Daniel; Tränkenschuh, Wolfgang; Schlick, Konstantin; Huemer, Florian; Deutsch, Alexander; Neumeister, Peter; Greil, Richard; Pichler, Martin; Egle, Alexander

2015-12-01

Several serum parameters have been evaluated for adding prognostic value to clinical scoring systems in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), but none of the reports used multivariate testing of more than one parameter at a time. The goal of this study was to validate widely available serum parameters for their independent prognostic impact in the era of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network-International Prognostic Index (NCCN-IPI) score to determine which were the most useful. This retrospective bicenter analysis includes 515 unselected patients with DLBCL who were treated with rituximab and anthracycline-based chemoimmunotherapy between 2004 and January 2014. Anemia, high C-reactive protein, and high bilirubin levels had an independent prognostic value for survival in multivariate analyses in addition to the NCCN-IPI, whereas neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, high gamma-glutamyl transferase levels, and platelets-to-lymphocyte ratio did not. In our cohort, we describe the most promising markers to improve the NCCN-IPI. Anemia and high C-reactive protein levels retain their power in multivariate testing even in the era of the NCCN-IPI. The negative role of high bilirubin levels may be associated as a marker of liver function. Further studies are warranted to incorporate these markers into prognostic models and define their role opposite novel molecular markers. Copyright © 2015 by the National Comprehensive Cancer Network.

Prognostic factors and scoring system for survival in colonic perforation.

PubMed

Komatsu, Shuhei; Shimomatsuya, Takumi; Nakajima, Masayuki; Amaya, Hirokazu; Kobuchi, Taketsune; Shiraishi, Susumu; Konishi, Sayuri; Ono, Susumu; Maruhashi, Kazuhiro

2005-01-01

No ideal and generally accepted prognostic factors and scoring systems exist to determine the prognosis of peritonitis associated with colonic perforation. This study was designed to investigate prognostic factors and evaluate the various scoring systems to allow identification of high-risk patients. Between 1996 and 2003, excluding iatrogenic and trauma cases, 26 consecutive patients underwent emergency operations for colorectal perforation and were selected for this retrospective study. Several clinical factors were analyzed as possible predictive factors, and APACHE II, SOFA, MPI, and MOF scores were calculated. The overall mortality was 26.9%. Compared with the survivors, non-survivors were found more frequently in Hinchey's stage III-IV, a low preoperative marker of pH, base excess (BE), and a low postoperative marker of white blood cell count, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, and renal output (24h). According to the logistic regression model, BE was a significant independent variable. Concerning the prognostic scoring systems, an APACHE II score of 19, a SOFA score of 8, an MPI score of 30, and an MOF score of 7 or more were significantly related to poor prognosis. Preoperative BE and postoperative white blood cell count were reliable prognostic factors and early classification using prognostic scoring systems at specific points in the disease process are useful to improve our understanding of the problems involved.

Prognostic value of Child-Turcotte criteria in medically treated cirrhosis.

PubMed

Christensen, E; Schlichting, P; Fauerholdt, L; Gluud, C; Andersen, P K; Juhl, E; Poulsen, H; Tygstrup, N

1984-01-01

The Child- Turcotte criteria (CTC) (based on serum bilirubin and albumin, ascites, neurological disorder and nutrition) are established prognostic factors in patients with cirrhosis having portacaval shunt surgery. The objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic value of CTC in conservatively treated cirrhosis. Patients (n = 245) with histologically verified cirrhosis from a control group of a controlled clinical trial were studied. Data at entry into the trial were used to classify patients according to CTC. Survival curves for up to 16 years were made, and survival rates were compared using the log-rank test. Survival decreased significantly with increasing degree of abnormality (A----B----C) of albumin (p less than 0.001), ascites (p less than 0.001), bilirubin (p = 0.02) and nutritional status (p = 0.03). Survival was insignificantly influenced by neurological status (p = 0.11) probably because none of the patients had hepatic coma at entry into the trial. The five variables in CTC were combined to a score. With increasing score, the median survival time decreased from 6.4 years (score 5) to 2 months (scores 12 or more). Furthermore, the mortality from hepatic failure, gastrointestinal bleeding or hepatocellular carcinoma increased significantly with increasing score. CTC provide valuable and easily obtainable prognostic information in cirrhosis. However, CTC are inferior to a prognostic index based on multivariate analysis of prognostic factors.

Prognostic significance of biochemical markers in African Burkitt's lymphoma.

PubMed

Arthur, F K N; Owusu, L; Yeboah, F A; Rettig, T; Osei-Akoto, A

2011-10-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Endemic Burkitt's lymphoma (eBL) remains the prevalent form of paediatric cancer in tropical Africa with subtle pathological differences. This calls for intensified efforts to validate the global prognostic markers within local settings for improved cancer treatment and survival. This study proposes prognostic markers for enhanced eBL treatment and management. PATIENTS AND METHOD One hundred and eighty histologically and/or clinically diagnosed BL patients at Komfo Anokye Teaching Hospital, Kumasi, Ghana were eligible for this cross-sectional eight-year retrospective study. Biochemical, clinical and demographic data, before chemotherapy administration, were documented and examined for their progression-free (PFS) and overall survival (OS) significance. RESULTS A mean age of 6 (SD=2.7, range: 1-16) years was observed with general male dominance (M:F=1.69:1). Total serum lactate dehydrogenase (HR=2.04; 95% CI, 1.25-3.32; log rank=8.3; p=0.004), serum creatinine (HR=3.59; 95% CI, 1.62-7.98; log rank=15.4; p=0.002) and St. Jude stage (HR=1.74; 95% CI, 1.11-2.73; log rank=8.0; p=0.015) were important independent prognostic biochemical markers for both PFS and OS. Age, serum calcium, uric acid, potassium, sodium and phosphorus were non-prognostic. CONCLUSION The better monitoring of these prognostic indices coupled with risk-stratification treatment may improve patients' survival, especially in resource-limited settings.

Improving Gastric Cancer Outcome Prediction Using Single Time-Point Artificial Neural Network Models

PubMed Central

Nilsaz-Dezfouli, Hamid; Abu-Bakar, Mohd Rizam; Arasan, Jayanthi; Adam, Mohd Bakri; Pourhoseingholi, Mohamad Amin

2017-01-01

In cancer studies, the prediction of cancer outcome based on a set of prognostic variables has been a long-standing topic of interest. Current statistical methods for survival analysis offer the possibility of modelling cancer survivability but require unrealistic assumptions about the survival time distribution or proportionality of hazard. Therefore, attention must be paid in developing nonlinear models with less restrictive assumptions. Artificial neural network (ANN) models are primarily useful in prediction when nonlinear approaches are required to sift through the plethora of available information. The applications of ANN models for prognostic and diagnostic classification in medicine have attracted a lot of interest. The applications of ANN models in modelling the survival of patients with gastric cancer have been discussed in some studies without completely considering the censored data. This study proposes an ANN model for predicting gastric cancer survivability, considering the censored data. Five separate single time-point ANN models were developed to predict the outcome of patients after 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 years. The performance of ANN model in predicting the probabilities of death is consistently high for all time points according to the accuracy and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. PMID:28469384

Supportive Care: Time to Change Our Prognostic Tools and Their Use in CKD

PubMed Central

Hemmelgarn, Brenda; Kotanko, Peter; Germain, Michael J.; Moranne, Olivier; Davison, Sara N.

2016-01-01

In using a patient-centered approach, neither a clinician nor a prognostic score can predict with absolute certainty how well a patient will do or how long he will live; however, validated prognostic scores may improve accuracy of prognostic estimates, thereby enhancing the ability of the clinicians to appreciate the individual burden of disease and the prognosis of their patients and inform them accordingly. They may also facilitate nephrologist’s recommendation of dialysis services to those who may benefit and proposal of alternative care pathways that might better respect patients’ values and goals to those who are unlikely to benefit. The purpose of this article is to discuss the use as well as the limits and deficiencies of currently available prognostic tools. It will describe new predictors that could be integrated in future scores and the role of patients’ priorities in development of new scores. Delivering patient-centered care requires an understanding of patients’ priorities that are important and relevant to them. Because of limits of available scores, the contribution of new prognostic tools with specific markers of the trajectories for patients with CKD and patients’ health reports should be evaluated in relation to their transportability to different clinical and cultural contexts and their potential for integration into the decision-making processes. The benefit of their use then needs to be quantified in clinical practice by outcome studies including health–related quality of life, patient and caregiver satisfaction, or utility for improving clinical management pathways and tailoring individualized patient–centered strategies of care. Future research also needs to incorporate qualitative methods involving patients and their caregivers to better understand the barriers and facilitators to use of these tools in the clinical setting. Information given to patients should be supported by a more realistic approach to what dialysis is likely to entail for the individual patient in terms of likely quality and quantity of life according to the patient’s values and goals and not just the possibility of life prolongation. PMID:27510452

Can insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), IGF-1 receptor connective tissue growth factor and Ki-67 labelling index have a prognostic role in pulmonary carcinoids?

PubMed

Kanakis, Georgios A; Grimelius, Lars; Papaioannou, Dimitrios; Kaltsas, Gregory; Tsolakis, Apostolos V

2018-04-27

Altered expression of Insulin-like Growth Factor-1 (IGF-1), its receptor (IGF-1R), Connective Tissue Growth Factor (CTGF) and Hypoxia Inducible Factor-1 (HIF-1), has been implicated in tumorigenesis. So far, these factors have not been studied systematically in Pulmonary Carcinoids (PCs). To examine IGF-1, IGF-1R, CTGF and HIF-1 expression in PCs, and assess their prognostic value over established factors. Retrospective study of 121 PCs (104 Typical and 17 Atypical). The expression of growth factors was studied immunohistochemically and tumors were considered positive if immunoreactivity appeared in >50% of cells. All studied parameters were expressed in the majority of tumors (IGF-1, IGF-1R, CTGF and HIF-1, in 78.5%, 67%, 72% and 78%, respectively). Their expression tended to be more frequent in TCs and in tumors with Ki-67≤2% (significant only for HIF-1; 82 vs. 53%; p=0.023 and 83 vs. 63%; p=0.025 respectively). CTGF was the only factor correlated with more extensive disease (larger size; presence of lymph node and distant metastases). According to logistic regression analysis, only advanced age, Ki-67≥3.4% and lymph node involvement could predict the development of distant metastases. IGF-1, IGF-1R, CTGF and HIF-1 are avidly expressed in PCs; however, their presence did not appear to be of statistically significant value over established prognostic factors.

Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

2015-12-01

Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

Prognostic factors in children with acute myeloid leukaemia and excellent response to remission induction therapy.

PubMed

Karol, Seth E; Coustan-Smith, Elaine; Cao, Xueyuan; Shurtleff, Sheila A; Raimondi, Susana C; Choi, John K; Ribeiro, Raul C; Dahl, Gary V; Bowman, William Paul; Taub, Jeffrey W; Degar, Barbara; Leung, Wing; Downing, James R; Pui, Ching-Hon; Rubnitz, Jeffrey E; Campana, Dario; Inaba, Hiroto

2015-01-01

Minimal residual disease (MRD) is a strong prognostic factor in children and adolescents with acute myeloid leukaemia (AML) but nearly one-quarter of patients who achieve MRD-negative status still relapse. The adverse prognostic factors among MRD-negative patients remain unknown. We analysed the AML02 study cohort to identify demographic and genetic prognostic factors. Among the presenting features, certain 11q23 abnormalities, such as t(6;11) and t(10;11), acute megakaryoblastic leukaemia without the t(1;22), and age ≥10 years were associated with inferior outcome in patients who had MRD-negative status after either remission induction I or II. By contrast, those with rearrangement of CBF genes had superior outcome. Our study identifies patient populations for whom close post-remission MRD monitoring to detect and treat emerging relapse and adjustment in treatment intensity might be indicated. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Studies of prognostic factor and chemotherapeutic effect of epithelial ovarian cancer using Cox's proportional hazard model].

PubMed

Umesaki, N; Sugawa, T; Yajima, A; Satoh, S; Terashima, Y; Ochiai, K; Tomoda, Y; Kanoh, T; Noda, K; Yakushiji, M

1993-12-01

To make clear the prognostic factor and chemotherapeutic effect of epithelial ovarian cancer, a multiple-center study involving 22 hospitals in Japan was conducted using Cox's proportional hazard model. A total of 1,181 cases were reviewed. Clinical stage, histologic type, and residual tumor diameter were significant prognostic factors, but the degree of tissue differentiation was not. The effect of remission induction chemotherapy was assessed with or without CDDP, and a distinct prognostic difference was noted. Among the patients receiving CDDP + ADM + other chemotherapeutic agents (PA group), CDDP + other chemotherapeutic agents (PO group) and CDDP only (P group), the prognosis of the PO group was better than for the P group. The long-term prognosis improving effect of chemotherapy was assessed. Neither maintenance chemotherapy based on oral administration of pyrimidine fluoride nor immunotherapy had any long-term prognosis improving effect, while intermittent chemotherapy based on CDDP resulted in improved prognosis.

Breast Cancer Prognosis for Young Patients

PubMed Central

OWRANG, MEHDI; COPELAND, L. ROBERT JR; RICKS-SANTI, J. LUISEL; GASKINS, MELVIN; BEYENE, DESTA; DEWITTY, L. ROBERT JR; KANAAN, M. YASMINE

2017-01-01

Background/Aims: Breast cancer (BCa) prognostication is a vital element for providing effective treatment for patients with BCa. Studies suggest that ethnicity plays a greater role in the incidence and poor prognosis of BCa in younger women than in their older counterparts. Therefore, the goal of this study was to assess the association between age and ethnicity on the overall final prognosis. Materials and Methods: Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI) was used to analyze BCa prognosis using Howard University Cancer Center Tumor Registry and the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results BCa datasets. Patients were grouped according to their predicted prognosis based on NPI scheme. Results: There was no correlation between the younger patients compared to their older counterparts for any of the prognostic clusters. The significance of ethnicity in poorer prognosis for younger age is not conclusive either. Conclusion: An extended prognostic tool/system needs to be evaluated for its usefulness in a clinical practice environment. PMID:28652435

Update in mild traumatic brain injury.

PubMed

Freire-Aragón, María Dolores; Rodríguez-Rodríguez, Ana; Egea-Guerrero, Juan José

2017-08-10

There has been concern for many years regarding the identification of patients with mild traumatic brain injury (TBI) at high risk of developing an intracranial lesion (IL) that would require neurosurgical intervention. The small percentage of patients with these characteristics and the exceptional mortality associated with mild TBI with IL have led to the high use of resources such as computerised tomography (CT) being reconsidered. The various protocols developed for the management of mild TBI are based on the identification of risk factors for IL, which ultimately allows more selective indication or discarding both the CT application and the hospital stay for neurological monitoring. Finally, progress in the study of brain injury biomarkers with prognostic utility in different clinical categories of TBI has recently been incorporated by several clinical practice guidelines, which has allowed, together with clinical assessment, a more accurate prognostic approach for these patients to be established. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Radiomics: there is more than meets the eye in medical imaging (Conference Presentation)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aerts, Hugo

2016-03-01

Imaging-based techniques have traditionally been restricted to the diagnosis of cancer and staging of cancer. But technological advances are moving imaging modalities into the heart of patient care. Radiomics uses imaging assays to develop biomarkers which complement those derived from biopsies. The ultimate goal of radiomics is to improve personalized medicine strategies by allowing clinicians to monitor disease in real time as patients move through treatment. Several studies in different cancer types have demonstrated that radiomic biomarkers have strong prognostic performance, and are associated with underlying mutation and gene-expression patterns. In this talk, Dr. Aerts will discuss recent developments from his lab and collaborators performing research at the intersection of radiology and bioinformatics. Also, he will discuss recent work of building a computational image analysis system to extract a rich radiomics set and use these features to build prognostic radiomics signatures. The presentation will conclude with a discussion of future work on building integrative systems incorporating both molecular and phenotypic data to improve cancer therapies.

A competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for quantification of tetrastatin in body fluids and tumor extracts.

PubMed

Dupont-Deshorgue, A; Oudart, J B; Brassart, B; Deslee, G; Perotin, J M; Diebold, M D; Monboisse, J C; Ramont, L; Brassart-Pasco, S

2015-08-01

Basement membrane collagens or derived fragments are measured in biological fluids such as blood and urine of patients and appear to be useful for diagnosis, prognostication, or treatment monitoring as proposed for endostatin, a fragment of collagen XVIII, or tumstatin, a fragment of collagen IV. Tetrastatin, the NC1 alpha 4 collagen IV domain, was previously reported to inhibit tumor growth and angiogenesis. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a method to measure tetrastatin concentrations in human fluids. We developed a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). It allowed measuring tetrastatin levels in human serum, bronchial aspiration and bronchoalveolar lavage fluids, and lung tissue extracts. The tetrastatin level was significantly higher in tumor tissues than in healthy lung tissues. Tetrastatin competitive ELISA could be useful to quantify tetrastatin in tissues and biological fluids for the diagnosis or prognostication of diseases in which basement membrane metabolism may be altered, especially tumor progression. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Computed tomographic findings in dogs with head trauma and development of a novel prognostic computed tomography-based scoring system.

PubMed

Chai, Orit; Peery, Dana; Bdolah-Abram, Tali; Moscovich, Efrat; Kelmer, Efrat; Klainbart, Sigal; Milgram, Joshua; Shamir, Merav H

2017-09-01

OBJECTIVE To characterize CT findings and outcomes in dogs with head trauma and design a prognostic scale. ANIMALS 27 dogs admitted to the Koret School Veterinary Teaching Hospital within 72 hours after traumatic head injury that underwent CT imaging of the head. PROCEDURES Data were extracted from medical records regarding dog signalment, history, physical and neurologic examination findings, and modified Glasgow coma scale scores. All CT images were retrospectively evaluated by a radiologist unaware of dog status. Short-term (10 days after trauma) and long-term (≥ 6 months after trauma) outcomes were determined, and CT findings and other variables were analyzed for associations with outcome. A prognostic CT-based scale was developed on the basis of the results. RESULTS Cranial vault fractures, parenchymal abnormalities, or both were identified via CT in 24 of 27 (89%) dogs. Three (11%) dogs had only facial bone fractures. Intracranial hemorrhage was identified in 16 (59%) dogs, cranial vault fractures in 15 (56%), midline shift in 14 (52%), lateral ventricle asymmetry in 12 (44%), and hydrocephalus in 7 (26%). Hemorrhage and ventricular asymmetry were significantly and negatively associated with short- and long-term survival, respectively. The developed 7-point prognostic scale included points for hemorrhage, midline shift or lateral ventricle asymmetry, cranial vault fracture, and depressed fracture (1 point each) and infratentorial lesion (3 points). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE The findings reported here may assist in determining prognoses for other dogs with head trauma. The developed scale may be useful for outcome assessment of dogs with head trauma; however, it must be validated before clinical application.

Using qualitative research to inform development of a diagnostic algorithm for UTI in children.

PubMed

de Salis, Isabel; Whiting, Penny; Sterne, Jonathan A C; Hay, Alastair D

2013-06-01

Diagnostic and prognostic algorithms can help reduce clinical uncertainty. The selection of candidate symptoms and signs to be measured in case report forms (CRFs) for potential inclusion in diagnostic algorithms needs to be comprehensive, clearly formulated and relevant for end users. To investigate whether qualitative methods could assist in designing CRFs in research developing diagnostic algorithms. Specifically, the study sought to establish whether qualitative methods could have assisted in designing the CRF for the Health Technology Association funded Diagnosis of Urinary Tract infection in Young children (DUTY) study, which will develop a diagnostic algorithm to improve recognition of urinary tract infection (UTI) in children aged <5 years presenting acutely unwell to primary care. Qualitative methods were applied using semi-structured interviews of 30 UK doctors and nurses working with young children in primary care and a Children's Emergency Department. We elicited features that clinicians believed useful in diagnosing UTI and compared these for presence or absence and terminology with the DUTY CRF. Despite much agreement between clinicians' accounts and the DUTY CRFs, we identified a small number of potentially important symptoms and signs not included in the CRF and some included items that could have been reworded to improve understanding and final data analysis. This study uniquely demonstrates the role of qualitative methods in the design and content of CRFs used for developing diagnostic (and prognostic) algorithms. Research groups developing such algorithms should consider using qualitative methods to inform the selection and wording of candidate symptoms and signs.

Metabolic disturbances identified in plasma are associated with outcomes in patients with heart failure: diagnostic and prognostic value of metabolomics.

PubMed

Cheng, Mei-Ling; Wang, Chao-Hung; Shiao, Ming-Shi; Liu, Min-Hui; Huang, Yu-Yen; Huang, Cheng-Yu; Mao, Chun-Tai; Lin, Jui-Fen; Ho, Hung-Yao; Yang, Ning-I

2015-04-21

Identification of novel biomarkers is needed to improve the diagnosis and prognosis of heart failure (HF). Metabolic disturbance is remarkable in patients with HF. This study sought to assess the diagnostic and prognostic values of metabolomics in HF. Mass spectrometry-based profiling of plasma metabolites was performed in 515 participants; the discovery phase study enrolled 51 normal control subjects and 183 HF patients, and the validation study enrolled 63 control subjects and 218 patients with stage C HF. Another independent group of 32 patients with stage C HF who recovered to New York Heart Association functional class I at 6 and 12 months was profiled as the "recovery" group. A panel of metabolites, including histidine, phenylalanine, spermidine, and phosphatidylcholine C34:4, has a diagnostic value similar to B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). In the recovery group, the values of this panel significantly improved at 6 and 12 months. To evaluate the prognostic values, events were defined as the combined endpoints of death or HF-related re-hospitalization. A metabolite panel, which consisted of the asymmetric methylarginine/arginine ratio, butyrylcarnitine, spermidine, and the total amount of essential amino acids, provided significant prognostic values (p < 0.0001) independent of BNP and traditional risk factors. The prognostic value of the metabolite panel was better than that of BNP (area under the curve of 0.85 vs. 0.74 for BNP) and Kaplan-Meier curves (log rank: 17.5 vs. 9.95). These findings were corroborated in the validation study. Metabolomics demonstrate powerful diagnostic value in estimating HF-related metabolic disturbance. The profile of metabolites provides better prognostic value versus conventional biomarkers. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Hilar fat infiltration: A new prognostic factor in metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma with first-line sunitinib treatment.

PubMed

Kammerer-Jacquet, Solène-Florence; Brunot, Angelique; Bensalah, Karim; Campillo-Gimenez, Boris; Lefort, Mathilde; Bayat, Sahar; Ravaud, Alain; Dupuis, Frantz; Yacoub, Mokrane; Verhoest, Gregory; Peyronnet, Benoit; Mathieu, Romain; Lespagnol, Alexandra; Mosser, Jean; Edeline, Julien; Laguerre, Brigitte; Bernhard, Jean-Christophe; Rioux-Leclercq, Nathalie

2017-10-01

The selection of patients with metastatic clear cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC) who may benefit from targeted tyrosine kinase inhibitors has been a challenge, even more so now with the advent of new therapies. Hilar fat infiltration (HFI) is a validated prognostic factor in nonmetastatic ccRCC (TNM 2009 staging system) but has never been studied in metastatic patients. We aimed to assess its phenotype and prognostic effect in patients with metastatic ccRCC treated with first-line sunitinib. In a multicentric study, we retrospectively included 90 patients and studied the corresponding ccRCC at the pathological, immunohistochemical, and molecular levels. Patient and tumor characteristics were compared using univariate and multivariate analysis. All the features were then studied by Cox models for prognostic effect. HFI was found in 42 patients (46.7%), who had worse prognosis (Heng criteria) (P = 0.003), liver metastases (P = 0.036), and progressive diseases at first radiological evaluation (P = 0.024). The corresponding ccRCC was associated with poor pathological prognostic factors that are well known in nonmetastatic ccRCC. For these patients, median progression-free survival was 4 months vs. 13 months (P = 0.02), and median overall survival was 14 months vs. 29 months (P = 0.006). In a multivariate Cox model integrating all the variables, only poor prognosis, according to the Heng criteria and HFI, remained independently associated with both progression-free survival and overall survival. HFI was demonstrated for the first time to be an independent poor prognostic factor. Its potential role in predicting resistance to antiangiogenic therapy warrants further investigation. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

P21, COX-2, and E-cadherin are potential prognostic factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Lin, Yao; Shen, Lu-Yan; Fu, Hao; Dong, Bin; Yang, He-Li; Yan, Wan-Pu; Kang, Xiao-Zheng; Dai, Liang; Zhou, Hai-Tao; Yang, Yong-Bo; Liang, Zhen; Chen, Ke-Neng

2017-02-01

Much research effort has been devoted to identifying prognostic factors for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) by immunohistochemistry; however, no conclusive findings have been reached thus far. We hypothesized that certain molecules identified in previous studies might serve as useful prognostic markers for ESCC. Therefore, the aim of the current study was to validate the most relevant markers showing potential for ESCC prognosis in our prospective esophageal cancer database. A literature search was performed using the PubMed database for papers published between 1980 and 2015 using the following key words: 'esophageal cancer,' 'prognosis,' and 'immunohistochemistry.' Literature selection criteria were established to identify the most widely studied markers, and we further validated the selected markers in a cohort from our single-surgeon team, including 153 esophageal cancer patients treated from 2000 to 2010. A total of 1799 articles were identified, 82 of which met the selection criteria. Twelve markers were found to be the most widely studied, and the validation results indicated that only P21, COX-2, and E-cadherin were independent prognostic factors for ESCC patients in this series. The systemic review and cohort validation suggest that P21, COX-2, and E-cadherin are potential prognostic factors for ESCC, paving the way for more targeted prospective validation in the future. © 2016 International Society for Diseases of the Esophagus.

Glasgow prognostic score is superior to other inflammation-based scores in predicting survival of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma

PubMed Central

Wei, Xiaolei; Zhou, Lizhi; Wei, Qi; Zhang, Yuankun; Huang, Weimin; Feng, Ru

2017-01-01

Inflammation-based prognostic scores, such as the glasgow prognostic score (GPS), prognostic index (PI), prognostic nutritional index (PNI), neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) and platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) were related to survival in many solid tumors. Recent study showed that GPS can be used to predict outcome in diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL). However, other inflammation related scores had not been reported and it also remained unknown which of them was the most useful to evaluate the survival in DLBCLs. In this retrospective study, a number of 252 newly diagnosed and histologically proven DLBCLs from January 2003 to December 2014 were included. The high GPS, high PI, high NLR, high PLR and low PNI were all associated with poor overall survival (p < 0.05) and event-free survival (p < 0.05) in univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis indicated that GPS (HR = 1.781, 95% CI = 1.065–2.979, p = 0.028) remained an independent prognostic predictor in DLBCL. The c-index of GPS (0.735, 95% CI = 0.645–0.824) was greater than that of PI (0.710, 95% CI = 0.621–0.799, p = 0.602), PNI (0.600, 95% CI = 0.517–0.683, p = 0.001), PLR (0.599, 95% CI = 0.510–0.689, p = 0.029) and NLR (0.572, 95% CI = 0.503–0.642, p = 0.005) by Harrell's concordance index. Especially in DLBCLs treated with R-CHOP, GPS still remained the most powerful prognostic score when comparing with others (p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively for OS and EFS). In conclusion, it is indicated that inflammation-based prognostic scores such as GPS, PI, NLR, PNI and PLR all could be used to predict the outcome of DLBCLs. Among them, GPS is the most powerful indicator in predicting survival in DLBCLs, even in the rituximab era. PMID:29100345

Prognostic factors of clinical endpoints in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation during a 2-year follow-up in China

PubMed Central

Wang, Hao; Wang, Hai-Jun; Chen, Ya-Dong; Tao, Tao; Guo, Yu-Tao; Zhao, Xiao-Ning; Liu, Hong-Bin; Wang, Yu-Tang

2017-01-01

Abstract This study aimed to reveal the incidence of clinical endpoints in elderly patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) during a 2-year follow-up and evaluate the related prognostic factors of these endpoints. In total, 200 elderly patients with AF and 400 age- and sex-matched patients without AF were enrolled in this prospective observational cohort study. The incidence of clinical endpoints, including thromboembolism, hemorrhage, and all-cause death, during the 2-year follow-up was analyzed. Other follow-up data, including disease history, laboratory examinations, medication status, and other clinical endpoints, were collected. The prognostic factors of these clinical endpoints were then evaluated by Cox-survival analysis. In addition, the predicative role of C-reactive protein (CRP) and platelet-activating factor (PAF) on these clinical endpoints was analyzed. The incidence of clinical endpoints, including thromboembolism, hemorrhage, and all-cause death, was significantly higher in patients with AF than in those without AF (27.8% vs 9.8%, 29.4% vs 12.7%, and 28.7% vs 11.6%, respectively; all P < .001). Antithrombotic therapy significantly reduced the incidences of all-cause deaths (P < .05). Body mass index (BMI) and digoxin were prognostic risk factors of thromboembolism; age, massive hemorrhage history, and digoxin were prognostic risk factors of hemorrhage and age, renal insufficiency history, massive hemorrhage history, and digoxin were prognostic risk factors of all-cause death (P < .05). Further, both CRP and PAF were prognostic risk factors of thromboembolism and massive hemorrhage (P < .05). Age, BMI, massive hemorrhage history, and digoxin appear to be prognostic risk factors of clinical endpoints in elderly patients with AF. Appropriate drug use during follow-up may be beneficial in preventing the occurrence of clinical endpoints in elderly patients with AF. Trial registration number: ChiCTR-OCH-13003479. PMID:28816946

Gene network inherent in genomic big data improves the accuracy of prognostic prediction for cancer patients.

PubMed

Kim, Yun Hak; Jeong, Dae Cheon; Pak, Kyoungjune; Goh, Tae Sik; Lee, Chi-Seung; Han, Myoung-Eun; Kim, Ji-Young; Liangwen, Liu; Kim, Chi Dae; Jang, Jeon Yeob; Cha, Wonjae; Oh, Sae-Ock

2017-09-29

Accurate prediction of prognosis is critical for therapeutic decisions regarding cancer patients. Many previously developed prognostic scoring systems have limitations in reflecting recent progress in the field of cancer biology such as microarray, next-generation sequencing, and signaling pathways. To develop a new prognostic scoring system for cancer patients, we used mRNA expression and clinical data in various independent breast cancer cohorts (n=1214) from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). A new prognostic score that reflects gene network inherent in genomic big data was calculated using Network-Regularized high-dimensional Cox-regression (Net-score). We compared its discriminatory power with those of two previously used statistical methods: stepwise variable selection via univariate Cox regression (Uni-score) and Cox regression via Elastic net (Enet-score). The Net scoring system showed better discriminatory power in prediction of disease-specific survival (DSS) than other statistical methods (p=0 in METABRIC training cohort, p=0.000331, 4.58e-06 in two METABRIC validation cohorts) when accuracy was examined by log-rank test. Notably, comparison of C-index and AUC values in receiver operating characteristic analysis at 5 years showed fewer differences between training and validation cohorts with the Net scoring system than other statistical methods, suggesting minimal overfitting. The Net-based scoring system also successfully predicted prognosis in various independent GEO cohorts with high discriminatory power. In conclusion, the Net-based scoring system showed better discriminative power than previous statistical methods in prognostic prediction for breast cancer patients. This new system will mark a new era in prognosis prediction for cancer patients.

Prognostic nomogram and score to predict overall survival in locally advanced untreated pancreatic cancer (PROLAP)

PubMed Central

Vernerey, Dewi; Huguet, Florence; Vienot, Angélique; Goldstein, David; Paget-Bailly, Sophie; Van Laethem, Jean-Luc; Glimelius, Bengt; Artru, Pascal; Moore, Malcolm J; André, Thierry; Mineur, Laurent; Chibaudel, Benoist; Benetkiewicz, Magdalena; Louvet, Christophe; Hammel, Pascal; Bonnetain, Franck

2016-01-01

Background: The management of locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) patients remains controversial. Better discrimination for overall survival (OS) at diagnosis is needed. We address this issue by developing and validating a prognostic nomogram and a score for OS in LAPC (PROLAP). Methods: Analyses were derived from 442 LAPC patients enrolled in the LAP07 trial. The prognostic ability of 30 baseline parameters was evaluated using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Performance assessment and internal validation of the final model were done with Harrell's C-index, calibration plot and bootstrap sample procedures. On the basis of the final model, a prognostic nomogram and a score were developed, and externally validated in 106 consecutive LAPC patients treated in Besançon Hospital, France. Results: Age, pain, tumour size, albumin and CA 19-9 were independent prognostic factors for OS. The final model had good calibration, acceptable discrimination (C-index=0.60) and robust internal validity. The PROLAP score has the potential to delineate three different prognosis groups with median OS of 15.4, 11.7 and 8.5 months (log-rank P<0.0001). The score ability to discriminate OS was externally confirmed in 63 (59%) patients with complete clinical data derived from a data set of 106 consecutive LAPC patients; median OS of 18.3, 14.1 and 7.6 months for the three groups (log-rank P<0.0001). Conclusions: The PROLAP nomogram and score can accurately predict OS before initiation of induction chemotherapy in LAPC-untreated patients. They may help to optimise clinical trials design and might offer the opportunity to define risk-adapted strategies for LAPC management in the future. PMID:27404456

Gene network inherent in genomic big data improves the accuracy of prognostic prediction for cancer patients

PubMed Central

Kim, Yun Hak; Jeong, Dae Cheon; Pak, Kyoungjune; Goh, Tae Sik; Lee, Chi-Seung; Han, Myoung-Eun; Kim, Ji-Young; Liangwen, Liu; Kim, Chi Dae; Jang, Jeon Yeob; Cha, Wonjae; Oh, Sae-Ock

2017-01-01

Accurate prediction of prognosis is critical for therapeutic decisions regarding cancer patients. Many previously developed prognostic scoring systems have limitations in reflecting recent progress in the field of cancer biology such as microarray, next-generation sequencing, and signaling pathways. To develop a new prognostic scoring system for cancer patients, we used mRNA expression and clinical data in various independent breast cancer cohorts (n=1214) from the Molecular Taxonomy of Breast Cancer International Consortium (METABRIC) and Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). A new prognostic score that reflects gene network inherent in genomic big data was calculated using Network-Regularized high-dimensional Cox-regression (Net-score). We compared its discriminatory power with those of two previously used statistical methods: stepwise variable selection via univariate Cox regression (Uni-score) and Cox regression via Elastic net (Enet-score). The Net scoring system showed better discriminatory power in prediction of disease-specific survival (DSS) than other statistical methods (p=0 in METABRIC training cohort, p=0.000331, 4.58e-06 in two METABRIC validation cohorts) when accuracy was examined by log-rank test. Notably, comparison of C-index and AUC values in receiver operating characteristic analysis at 5 years showed fewer differences between training and validation cohorts with the Net scoring system than other statistical methods, suggesting minimal overfitting. The Net-based scoring system also successfully predicted prognosis in various independent GEO cohorts with high discriminatory power. In conclusion, the Net-based scoring system showed better discriminative power than previous statistical methods in prognostic prediction for breast cancer patients. This new system will mark a new era in prognosis prediction for cancer patients. PMID:29100405

Prognostic significance of thymidylate synthase (TS) expression in cutaneous malignant melanoma.

PubMed

Shimizu, A; Kaira, K; Yasuda, M; Asao, T; Ishikawa, O

2016-01-01

Thymidylate synthase (TS) plays an essential role in the pathogenesis and development of cancer, and TS-targeting agents have been widely used against different types of cancers. However, it remains still unclear whether or not TS is expressed in malignant melanoma. We conducted the clinicopathological study to investigate the prognostic significance of TS expression in cutaneous malignant melanoma. Ninety-nine patients with surgically resected cutaneous malignant melanoma were assessed. Tumor sections were stained by immunohistochemistry for TS, Ki-67, and microvessel density (MVD) determined by CD34. TS was positively expressed in 26% (26 out of 99). The expression of TS was significantly associated with T factor, cell proliferation (Ki-67) and MVD (CD34). By Spearman's rank test, TS expression was significantly correlated with Ki67 and CD34. By univariate analysis, ulceration, disease stage, TS, Ki-67 and CD34 had a significant relationship with survival. Multivariate analysis confirmed that TS was an independent prognostic factor for poor prognosis of cutaneous malignant melanoma. The positive expression of TS could be a useful marker for predicting poor prognosis in patients with cutaneous malignant melanoma, and TS-targeting agents may be worth trying for the treatment of this dismal disease.

The expression ratio of Map7/B2M is prognostic for survival in patients with stage II colon cancer.

PubMed

Blum, Craig; Graham, Amanda; Yousefzadeh, Matt; Shrout, Jessica; Benjamin, Katie; Krishna, Murli; Hoda, Raza; Hoda, Rana; Cole, David J; Garrett-Mayer, Elizabeth; Reed, Carolyn; Wallace, Michael; Mitas, Michael

2008-09-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most frequent cause of cancer-related death in the United States. To determine whether certain molecular markers might be prognostic for survival, we measured by quantitative real-time RT-PCR the expression levels of 15 previously studied genes that are known to be up-regulated or down-regulated in the progression of epithelial cancers. The tumor samples were extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded primary tissues derived from patients with Stage II CRC who developed disease recurrence within two years (n=10), or were disease-free for at least 4 years (n=12). We were able to determine, by AUC curve analysis, that the ratio of microtubule associated protein 7 (Map7)/B2M was predictive of outcome in our sample set. Further, using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, we observed significantly different curves as a function of marker positivity for the Map7/B2M (p=0.0001; HR=11) expression ratio. This suggests that the expression ratio of Map7/B2M may serve as a valuable prognostic marker in patients with Stage II colon cancer, and potentially guide therapeutic decision making.

The expression ratio of Map7/B2M is prognostic for survival in patients with stage II colon cancer

PubMed Central

BLUM, CRAIG; GRAHAM, AMANDA; YOUSEFZADEH, MATT; SHROUT, JESSICA; BENJAMIN, KATIE; KRISHNA, MURLI; HODA, RAZA; HODA, RANA; COLE, DAVID J.; GARRETT-MAYER, ELIZABETH; REED, CAROLYN; WALLACE, MICHAEL; MITAS, MICHAEL

2012-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most frequent cause of cancer-related death in the United States. To determine whether certain molecular markers might be prognostic for survival, we measured by quantitative real-time RT-PCR the expression levels of 15 previously studied genes that are known to be up-regulated or down-regulated in the progression of epithelial cancers. The tumor samples were extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded primary tissues derived from patients with Stage II CRC who developed disease recurrence within two years (n=10), or were disease-free for at least 4 years (n=12). We were able to determine, by AUC curve analysis, that the ratio of microtubule associated protein 7 (Map7)/B2M was predictive of outcome in our sample set. Further, using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, we observed significantly different curves as a function of marker positivity for the Map7/B2M (p=0.0001; HR=11) expression ratio. This suggests that the expression ratio of Map7/B2M may serve as a valuable prognostic marker in patients with Stage II colon cancer, and potentially guide therapeutic decision making. PMID:18695889

Biomarkers for Wilms Tumor: a Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Cone, Eugene B.; Dalton, Stewart S.; Van Noord, Megan; Tracy, Elizabeth T.; Rice, Henry E.; Routh, Jonathan C.

2016-01-01

Purpose Wilms tumor is the most common childhood renal malignancy and the fourth most common childhood cancer. Many biomarkers have been studied but there has been no comprehensive summary. We systematically reviewed the literature on biomarkers in Wilms Tumor with the objective of quantifying the prognostic implication of the presence of individual tumor markers. Methods We searched for English language studies from 1980–2015 performed on children with Wilms Tumor under 18 years old with prognostic data. The protocol was conducted as per PRISMA guidelines. Two reviewers abstracted data in duplicate using a standard evaluation form. We performed descriptive statistics, then calculated relative risks and 95% confidence intervals for markers appearing in multiple level 2 or 3 studies. Results 40 studies were included examining 32 biomarkers in 7381 Wilms patients. Studies had a median of 61 patients with 24 biomarker positive patients per study, and a median follow-up of 68.4 months. Median percent of patients in Stage 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 were 28.5%, 26.4%, 24.5%, 14.1%, and 1.7%, with 10.2% anaplasia. The strongest negative prognostic association was loss of heterozygosity on 11p15, with a risk of recurrence of 5.00, although loss of heterozygosity on 1p and gain of function on 1q were also strongly linked to increased recurrence (2.93 and 2.86 respectively). Conclusions Several tumor markers are associated with an increased risk of recurrence or a decreased risk of overall survival in Wilms Tumor. These data suggest targets for development of diagnostic tests and potential therapies. PMID:27259655

Immunohistochemical analysis of EGFR and hyaluronan in tongue cancer and the development of regional recurrence in patients initially diagnosed N0.

PubMed

Lindell Jonsson, Eva; Nylander, Karin; Hallén, Lars; Laurell, Göran

2017-08-01

To investigate whether the extent of expression of hyaluronan (HA) and epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) in squamous cell carcinoma of the mobile tongue can predict the risk of cervical metastasis and survival. Retrospective histopathologic study. Surgical specimens from 64 patients who had undergone surgery for squamous cell carcinoma of the mobile tongue were assessed using immunohistochemistry to investigate the expression of HA and EGFR in the primary tumours, and the data were then correlated to cervical metastasis and survival. There was a significant correlation between the intensity of HA staining and patient survival (p .024), and a weak correlation between the staining proportion of EGFR and the risk for regional recurrence (AUC 66). This study indicates that immunoscoring using HA could be used to provide prognostic tools for tongue cancer, and that it might be of interest to study the prognostic properties of EGFR further concerning the risk for regional recurrence after the primary treatment.

Development and Validation of Water Vapor Tracers as Diagnostics for the Atmospheric Hydrologic Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bosilovich, Michael G.; Schubert, Siegfried D.; Einaudi, Franco (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Understanding of the local and remote sources of water vapor can be a valuable diagnostic in understanding the regional atmospheric hydrologic cycle. In the present study, we have implemented passive tracers as prognostic variables to follow water vapor evaporated in predetermined regions until the water tracer precipitates. The formulation of the sources and sinks of tracer water is generally proportional to the prognostic water vapor variable. Because all water has been accounted for in tracers, the water vapor variable provides the validation of the tracer water and the formulation of the sources and sinks. The tracers have been implemented in a GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) simulation consisting of several summer periods to determine the source regions of precipitation for the United States and India. The recycling of water and interannual variability of the sources of water will be examined. Potential uses in GCM sensitivity studies, predictability studies and data assimilation will be discussed.

Cerebrospinal fluid biomarkers for the diagnosis and prognosis of Parkinson's disease: protocol for a systematic review and individual participant data meta-analysis.

PubMed

Eusebi, Paolo; Hansson, Oskar; Paciotti, Silvia; Orso, Massimiliano; Chiasserini, Davide; Calabresi, Paolo; Blennow, Kaj; Parnetti, Lucilla

2017-11-22

Idiopathic Parkinson's disease (PD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder related to α-synuclein misfolding and aggregation. For this reason, it belongs to the family of 'synucleinopathies', which also includes some other neurological diseases. Although imaging and ancillary investigations may be helpful in the diagnostic workup, the diagnosis of PD mostly relies on the clinician's expertise. Furthermore, there is a need today for markers that can track the disease progression in PD that might improve the evaluation of novel disease-modifying therapies. The cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) has been widely investigated with the purpose of finding useful diagnostic and prognostic biomarkers for PD. This systematic review protocol has been developed according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic reviews and Meta-Analyses Protocol 2015 statement and was registered on the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews. An international collaboration will be established. We will search the Cochrane Library, Web of Science, Medline and Embase from inception, using appropriate search strategies. Individual participant data from all included studies will be merged into a single database. We will include any study assessing the diagnostic and prognostic role of CSF biomarkers in PD. To evaluate the risk of bias and applicability of primary diagnostic accuracy studies, we will use Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 and Quality in Prognostic Studies. We will use standard meta-analytic procedures. We will first explore the utility of each CSF biomarker in turn. For each biomarker, we will assess its diagnostic and prognostic utility by means of receiver operating characteristic analysis and regression models. We will then move towards a multivariate approach considering different panels of biomarkers. Our study will not include confidential data, and no intervention will be involved, so ethical approval is not required. The results of the study will be reported in international peer-reviewed journals. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Assessment of Labor Behavior Factors and Selecting Line Managers' Lines of Development at Russian Industrial Enterprises

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zavyalova, Elena K.; Kosheleva, Sofia V.

2009-01-01

Purpose: The paper investigates personal and environmental factors providing for the efficiency of line managers' activity and contributing to their professional and career advancement. The paper studies the prognostic value of the assessment of personal and environmental factors providing for the efficiency of line managers' activity according to…

Prognostic model for chronic hypertension in women with a history of hypertensive pregnancy disorders at term.

PubMed

Visser, V S; Hermes, W; Twisk, J; Franx, A; van Pampus, M G; Koopmans, C; Mol, B W J; de Groot, C J M

2017-10-01

The association between hypertensive pregnancy disorders and cardiovascular disease later in life is well described. In this study we aim to develop a prognostic model from patients characteristics known before, early in, during and after pregnancy to identify women at increased risk of cardiovascular disease e.g. chronic hypertension years after pregnancy complicated by hypertension at term. We included women with a history of singleton pregnancy complicated by hypertension at term. Women using antihypertensive medication before pregnancy were excluded. We measured hypertension in these women more than 2years postpartum. Different patients characteristics before, early in, during and after pregnancy were considered to develop a prognostic model of chronic hypertension at 2-years. These included amongst others maternal age, blood pressure at pregnancy intake and blood pressure six weeks post-partum. Univariable analyses followed by a multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed to determine which combination of predictors best predicted chronic hypertension. Model performance was assessed by calibration (graphical plot) and discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC)). Of the 305 women in who blood pressure 2.5years after pregnancy was assessed, 105 women (34%) had chronic hypertension. The following patient characteristics were significant associated with chronic hypertension: higher maternal age, lower education, negative family history on hypertensive pregnancy disorders, higher BMI at booking, higher diastolic blood pressure at pregnancy intake, higher systolic blood pressure during pregnancy and higher diastolic blood pressure at six weeks post-partum. These characteristics were included in the prognostic model for chronic hypertension. Model performance was good as indicated by good calibration and good discrimination (AUC; 0.83 (95% CI 0.75 - 0.92). Chronic hypertension can be expected from patient characteristics before, early in, during and after pregnancy. These data underline the importance and awareness of detectable risk factors both for increased risk of complicated pregnancy as well as increased risk of cardiovascular disease later in life. Copyright © 2017 International Society for the Study of Hypertension in Pregnancy. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

SMAD4 is a potential prognostic marker in human breast carcinomas

PubMed Central

Liu, Nan-nan; Xi, Yue; Callaghan, Michael U.; Fribley, Andrew; Moore-Smith, Lakisha; Zimmerman, Jacquelyn W.; Pasche, Boris

2014-01-01

SMAD4 is a downstream mediator of transforming growth factor beta. While its tumor suppressor function has been investigated as a prognostic biomarker in several human malignancies, its role as a prognostic marker in breast carcinoma is still undefined. We investigated SMAD4 expression in breast carcinoma samples of different histologic grades to evaluate the association between SMAD4 and outcome in breast cancer. We also investigated the role of SMAD4 expression status in MDA-MB-468 breast cancer cells in responding to TGF-β stimulation. SMAD4 expression was assessed in 53 breast ductal carcinoma samples and in the surrounding normal tissue from 50 of the samples using immunohistochemistry, Western blot, and real-time PCR. TGF-β-SMAD and non-SMAD signaling was assessed by Western blot in MDA-MB-468 cells with and without SMAD4 restoration. SMAD4 expression was reduced in ductal breast carcinoma as compared to surrounding uninvolved ductal breast epithelia (p <0.05). SMAD4 expression levels decreased from Grade 1 to Grade 3 ductal breast carcinoma as assessed by immunohistochemistry (p <0.05). Results were recapitulated by tissue array. In addition, immunohistochemistry results were further confirmed at the protein and mRNA level. We then found that non-SMAD MEK/MAPK signaling was significantly different between SMAD4 expressing MDA-MB-468 cells and SMAD4-null MDA-MB-468 cells. This is the first study indicating that SMAD4 plays a key role in shifting MAPK signaling. Further, we have demonstrated that SMAD4 has a potential role in the development of breast carcinoma and SMAD4 was a potential prognostic marker of breast carcinoma. Our findings further support the role of SMAD4 in breast carcinoma development. In addition, we observed an inverse relationship between SMAD4 levels and breast carcinoma histological grade. Our finding indicated that SMAD4 expression level in breast cancer cells played a role in responding non-SMAD signaling but not the canonic SMAD signaling. Further mechanistic studies are necessary to establish the role of SMAD4 in breast carcinoma prognosis and potential specific targeting. PMID:23975369

Inflammation-based prognostic score is a useful predictor of postoperative outcome in patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

PubMed

Oshiro, Yukio; Sasaki, Ryoko; Fukunaga, Kiyoshi; Kondo, Tadashi; Oda, Tatsuya; Takahashi, Hideto; Ohkohchi, Nobuhiro

2013-03-01

Recent studies have revealed that the Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score, is useful for predicting outcome in a variety of cancers. This study sought to investigate the significance of GPS for prognostication of patients who underwent surgery with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. We retrospectively analyzed a total of 62 patients who underwent resection for extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma. We calculated the GPS as follows: patients with both an elevated C-reactive protein (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (<35 g/L) were allocated a score of 2; patients with one or none of these abnormalities were allocated a s ore of 1 or 0, respectively. Prognostic significance was analyzed by the log-rank test and a Cox proportional hazards model. Overall survival rate was 25.5 % at 5 years for all 62 patients. Venous invasion (p = 0.01), pathological primary tumor category (p = 0.013), lymph node metastasis category (p < 0.001), TNM stage (p < 0.001), and GPS (p = 0.008) were significantly associated with survival by univariate analysis. A Cox model demonstrated that increased GPS was an independent predictive factor with poor prognosis. The preoperative GPS is a useful predictor of postoperative outcome in patients with extrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.

Baseline prostate-specific antigen levels following treatment with abiraterone acetate as a prognostic factor in castration-resistant prostate cancer

PubMed Central

Hiroshige, Tasuku; Eguchi, Yoshiro; Yoshizumi, Osamu; Chikui, Katsuaki; Kumagai, Hisaji; Kawaguchi, Yoshihiro; Onishi, Rei; Hayashi, Tokumasa; Watanabe, Kouta; Mitani, Tomotaro; Saito, Koujiro; Igawa, Tsukasa

2018-01-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the prognostic factors associated with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) times in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) who received treatment with abiraterone acetate (AA) in routine clinical settings. A total of 93 patients treated with AA between September 2014 and February 2017 were selected and their medical records were analyzed retrospectively. The median PFS time of docetaxel (DTX)-naïve patients was 171 days, and that of post-DTX patients was 56 days. The OS time of DTX-naïve patients did not reach the median. The median OS time of post-DTX patients was 761 days. Multivariate analyses identified baseline prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level prior to treatment with AA and the PSA response rate as independent prognostic factors for PFS time, and baseline PSA prior to treatment with AA as the only independent prognostic factor for OS time. The results of the present study indicate that the baseline PSA level prior to treatment with AA is a notable prognostic factor in patients with CRPC. PMID:29725416

Baseline prostate-specific antigen levels following treatment with abiraterone acetate as a prognostic factor in castration-resistant prostate cancer.

PubMed

Hiroshige, Tasuku; Eguchi, Yoshiro; Yoshizumi, Osamu; Chikui, Katsuaki; Kumagai, Hisaji; Kawaguchi, Yoshihiro; Onishi, Rei; Hayashi, Tokumasa; Watanabe, Kouta; Mitani, Tomotaro; Saito, Koujiro; Igawa, Tsukasa

2018-05-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the prognostic factors associated with progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) times in patients with castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) who received treatment with abiraterone acetate (AA) in routine clinical settings. A total of 93 patients treated with AA between September 2014 and February 2017 were selected and their medical records were analyzed retrospectively. The median PFS time of docetaxel (DTX)-naïve patients was 171 days, and that of post-DTX patients was 56 days. The OS time of DTX-naïve patients did not reach the median. The median OS time of post-DTX patients was 761 days. Multivariate analyses identified baseline prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level prior to treatment with AA and the PSA response rate as independent prognostic factors for PFS time, and baseline PSA prior to treatment with AA as the only independent prognostic factor for OS time. The results of the present study indicate that the baseline PSA level prior to treatment with AA is a notable prognostic factor in patients with CRPC.

Systematic review of renal carcinoma prognostic factors.

PubMed

Lorente, D; Trilla, E; Meseguer, A; Planas, J; Placer, J; Celma, A; Salvador, C; Regis, L; Morote, J

2017-05-01

The natural history of renal cell carcinoma is heterogeneous. Some scenarios can be found in terms of clinical presentation, clinical evolution or type of recurrence (local/metastatic). The aim of this publication is to analyze the most important prognostic factors published in the literature. A literature review ob published papers was performed using the Pubmed, from first Motzer's classification published in 1999 to 2015, according to PRISMA declaration. Search was done using the following keywords: kidney neoplasm, kidney cancer, renal cell carcinoma, prognostic factors, mortality, survival and disease progression. Papers were classified according to level of evidence, the number of patients included and the type of study performed. The evolution in the knowledge of molecular pathways related to renal oncogenesis and the new targeted therapies has left to remain obsolete the old prognostic models. It's necessary to perform a continuous review to actualize nomograms and to adapt them to the new scenarios. Is necessary to perform a proper external validation of existing prognostic factors using prospective and multicentric studies to add them into the daily urologist clinical practice. Copyright © 2016 AEU. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Nonsentinel lymph node status in patients with cutaneous melanoma: results from a multi-institution prognostic study.

PubMed

Pasquali, Sandro; Mocellin, Simone; Mozzillo, Nicola; Maurichi, Andrea; Quaglino, Pietro; Borgognoni, Lorenzo; Solari, Nicola; Piazzalunga, Dario; Mascheroni, Luigi; Giudice, Giuseppe; Patuzzo, Roberto; Caracò, Corrado; Ribero, Simone; Marone, Ugo; Santinami, Mario; Rossi, Carlo Riccardo

2014-03-20

We investigated whether the nonsentinel lymph node (NSLN) status in patients with melanoma improves the prognostic accuracy of common staging features; then we formulated a proposal for including the NSLN status in the current melanoma staging system. We retrospectively collected the clinicopathologic data of 1,538 patients with positive SLN status who underwent completion lymph node dissection (CLND) at nine Italian centers. Multivariable Cox regression survival analysis was used to identify independent prognostic factors. Literature meta-analysis was used to summarize the available evidence on the prognostic value of the NSLN status in patients with positive SLN. NSLN metastasis was observed in 353 patients (23%). After a median follow-up of 45 months, NSLN status was an independent prognostic factor for melanoma-specific survival (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.34; 95% CI, 1.18 to 1.52; P < .001). NSLN status efficiently stratified the prognosis of patients with two to three positive lymph nodes (n = 387; HR = 1.39; 95% CI, 1.07 to 1.81; P = .013), independently of other staging features. Searching the literature, this patient subgroup was investigated in other two studies. Pooling the results (n = 620 patients; 284 NSLN negative and 336 NSLN positive), we found that NSLN status is a highly significant prognostic factor (summary HR = 1.59; 95% CI, 1.27 to 1.98; P < .001) in patients with two to three positive lymph nodes. These findings support the independent prognostic value of the NSLN status in patients with two to three positive lymph nodes, suggesting that this information should be considered for the routine staging in patients with melanoma.

BRAF Mutation is Associated with an Improved Survival in Glioma-a Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

PubMed

Vuong, Huy Gia; Altibi, Ahmed M A; Duong, Uyen N P; Ngo, Hanh T T; Pham, Thong Quang; Fung, Kar-Ming; Hassell, Lewis

2018-05-01

Newly emerged molecular markers in gliomas provide prognostic values beyond the capabilities of histologic classification. BRAF mutation, especially BRAF V600E, is common in a subset of gliomas and may represent a potential prognostic marker. The aim of our study is to investigate the potential use of BRAF mutations on prognosis of glioma patients. Four electronic databases were searched for potential articles, including PubMed, Scopus, ISI Web of Science, and Virtual Health Library (VHL). Data of hazard ratio (HR) for overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) were directly obtained from original papers or indirectly estimated from Kaplan Meier curve (KMC). A random effect model weighted by inverse variance method was used to calculate the pooled HR. From 705 articles, we finally included 11 articles with 1308 glioma patients for the final analysis. The overall estimates showed that BRAF V600E was associated with an improved overall survival (OS) in glioma patients (HR = 0.60; 95% CI = 0.44-0.80). Results for progression-free survival (PFS), however, were not statistically significant (HR = 1.39; 95% CI = 0.82-2.34). In subgroup analyses, BRAF V600E showed its effect in improving survival in pediatric and young adult gliomas (under 35 years) but did not have prognostic value in old adult. Additionally, BRAF V600E was only associated with a favorable prognosis in lower grade glioma. Our meta-analysis provides evidence that BRAF mutation has a favorable prognostic impact in gliomas and its prognostic value might be dependent on patient age and tumor grade. This mutation can be used as a prognostic factor in glioma but additional studies are required to clarify its prognostic value taking into account other confounding factors.

Prognostic Role of Phospho-STAT3 in Patients with Cancers of the Digestive System: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Li, Mu-xing; Bi, Xin-yu; Huang, Zhen; Zhao, Jian-jun; Han, Yue; Li, Zhi-Yu; Zhang, Ye-fan; Li, Yuan; Chen, Xiao; Hu, Xu-hui; Zhao, Hong; Cai, Jian-qiang

2015-01-01

The definite prognostic role of p-STAT3 has not been well defined. We performed a meta-analysis evaluating the prognostic role of p-STAT3 expression in patients with digestive system cancers. We searched the available articles reporting the prognostic value of p-STAT3 in patients with cancers of the digestive system, mainly including colorectal cancer, gastric cancer, hepatocellular carcinoma, esophagus cancer and pancreatic cancer. The pooled hazard ratios (HRs) with 95 % confidence intervals (95 % CIs) of overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS) were used to assess the prognostic role of p-STAT3 expression level in cancer tissues. And the association between p-STAT3 expression and clinicopathological characteristics was evaluated. A total of 22 studies with 3585 patients were finally enrolled in the meta-analysis. The results showed that elevated p-STAT3 expression level predicted inferior OS (HR = 1.809, 95% CI: 1.442-2.270, P < 0.001) and DFS (HR = 1.481, 95% CI: 1.028-2.133, P = 0.035) in patients with malignant cancers of the digestive system. Increased expression of p-STAT3 is significantly related with tumor cell differentiation (Odds ratio (OR) = 1.895, 95% CI: 1.364-2.632, P < 0.001) and lymph node metastases (OR = 2.108, 95% CI: 1.104-4.024, P = 0.024). Sensitivity analysis suggested that the pooled HR was stable and omitting a single study did not change the significance of the pooled HR. Funnel plots and Egger's tests revealed there was no significant publication bias in the meta-analysis. Phospho-STAT3 might be a prognostic factor of patients with digestive system cancers. More well designed studies with adequate follow-up are needed to gain a thorough understanding of the prognostic role of p-STAT3.

Combined prognostic value of pretreatment anemia and cervical node necrosis in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma receiving intensity-modulated radiotherapy: A large-scale retrospective study.

PubMed

Zhang, Lu-Lu; Zhou, Guan-Qun; Li, Yi-Yang; Tang, Ling-Long; Mao, Yan-Ping; Lin, Ai-Hua; Ma, Jun; Qi, Zhen-Yu; Sun, Ying

2017-12-01

This study investigated the combined prognostic value of pretreatment anemia and cervical node necrosis (CNN) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Retrospective review of 1302 patients with newly diagnosed nonmetastatic NPC treated with intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) ± chemotherapy. Patients were classified into four groups according to anemia and CNN status. Survival was compared using the log-rank test. Independent prognostic factors were identified using the Cox proportional hazards model. The primary end-point was overall survival (OS); secondary end-points were disease-free survival (DFS), locoregional relapse-free survival (LRRFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). Pretreatment anemia was an independent, adverse prognostic factor for DMFS; pretreatment CNN was an independent adverse prognostic factor for all end-points. Five-year survival for non-anemia and non-CNN, anemia, CNN, and anemia and CNN groups were: OS (93.1%, 87.2%, 82.9%, 76.3%, P < 0.001), DFS (87.0%, 84.0%, 73.9%, 64.6%, P < 0.001), DMFS (94.1%, 92.1%, 82.4%, 72.5%, P < 0.001), and LRRFS (92.8%, 92.4%, 88.7%, 84.0%, P = 0.012). The non-anemia and non-CNN group had best survival outcomes; anemia and CNN group, the poorest. Multivariate analysis demonstrated combined anemia and CNN was an independent prognostic factor for OS, DFS, DMFS, and LRRFS (P < 0.05). The combination of anemia and CNN is an independent adverse prognostic factor in patients with NPC treated using IMRT ± chemotherapy. Assessment of pretreatment anemia and CNN improved risk stratification, especially for patients with anemia and CNN who have poorest prognosis. This study may aid the design of individualized treatment plans to improve treatment outcomes. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prognostic Biomarkers Used for Localised Prostate Cancer Management: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Lamy, Pierre-Jean; Allory, Yves; Gauchez, Anne-Sophie; Asselain, Bernard; Beuzeboc, Philippe; de Cremoux, Patricia; Fontugne, Jacqueline; Georges, Agnès; Hennequin, Christophe; Lehmann-Che, Jacqueline; Massard, Christophe; Millet, Ingrid; Murez, Thibaut; Schlageter, Marie-Hélène; Rouvière, Olivier; Kassab-Chahmi, Diana; Rozet, François; Descotes, Jean-Luc; Rébillard, Xavier

2017-03-07

Prostate cancer stratification is based on tumour size, pretreatment PSA level, and Gleason score, but it remains imperfect. Current research focuses on the discovery and validation of novel prognostic biomarkers to improve the identification of patients at risk of aggressive cancer or of tumour relapse. This systematic review by the Intergroupe Coopérateur Francophone de Recherche en Onco-urologie (ICFuro) analysed new evidence on the analytical validity and clinical validity and utility of six prognostic biomarkers (PHI, 4Kscore, MiPS, GPS, Prolaris, Decipher). All available data for the six biomarkers published between January 2002 and April 2015 were systematically searched and reviewed. The main endpoints were aggressive prostate cancer prediction, additional value compared to classical prognostic parameters, and clinical benefit for patients with localised prostate cancer. The preanalytical and analytical validations were heterogeneous for all tests and often not adequate for the molecular signatures. Each biomarker was studied for specific indications (candidates for a first or second biopsy, and potential candidates for active surveillance, radical prostatectomy, or adjuvant treatment) for which the level of evidence (LOE) was variable. PHI and 4Kscore were the biomarkers with the highest LOE for discriminating aggressive and indolent tumours in different indications. Blood biomarkers (PHI and 4Kscore) have the highest LOE for the prediction of more aggressive prostate cancer and could help clinicians to manage patients with localised prostate cancer. The other biomarkers show a potential prognostic value; however, they should be evaluated in additional studies to confirm their clinical validity. We reviewed studies assessing the value of six prognostic biomarkers for prostate cancer. On the basis of the available evidence, some biomarkers could help in discriminating between aggressive and non-aggressive tumours with an additional value compared to the prognostic parameters currently used by clinicians. Copyright © 2017 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The prognostic value of KRAS mutation by cell-free DNA in cancer patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Zhuang, Rongyuan; Li, Song; Li, Qian; Guo, Xi; Shen, Feng; Sun, Hong; Liu, Tianshu

2017-01-01

KRAS mutation has been found in various types of cancer. However, the prognostic value of KRAS mutation in cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in cancer patients was conflicting. In the present study, a meta-analysis was conducted to clarify its prognostic significance. Literature searches of Cochrane Library, EMBASE, PubMed and Web of Science were performed to identify studies related to KRAS mutation detected by cfDNA and survival in cancer patients. Two evaluators reviewed and extracted the information independently. Review Manager 5.3 software was used to perform the statistical analysis. Thirty studies were included in the present meta-analysis. Our analysis showed that KRAS mutation in cfDNA was associated with a poorer survival in cancer patients for overall survival (OS, HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.63-2.51, P<0.01) and progression-free survival (PFS, HR 1.64, 95% CI 1.27-2.13, P<0.01). In subgroup analyses, KRAS mutation in pancreatic cancer, colorectal cancer, non-small cell lung cancer and ovarian epithelial cancer had HRs of 2.81 (95% CI 1.83-4.30, P<0.01), 1.67 (95% CI 1.25-2.42, P<0.01), 1.64 (95% CI 1.13-2.39, P = 0.01) and 2.17 (95% 1.12-4.21, p = 0.02) for OS, respectively. In addition, the ethnicity didn't influence the prognostic value of KRAS mutation in cfDNA in cancer patients (p = 0.39). Prognostic value of KRAS mutation was slightly higher in plasma than in serum (HR 2.13 vs 1.65), but no difference was observed (p = 0.37). Briefly, KRAS mutation in cfDNA was a survival prognostic biomarker in cancer patients. Its prognostic value was different in various types of cancer.

Prognosis of Pain and Physical Functioning in Patients With Knee Osteoarthritis: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

de Rooij, Mariëtte; van der Leeden, Marike; Heymans, Martijn W; Holla, Jasmijn F M; Häkkinen, Arja; Lems, Willem F; Roorda, Leo D; Veenhof, Cindy; Sanchez-Ramirez, Diana C; de Vet, Henrica C W; Dekker, Joost

2016-04-01

To systematically summarize the literature on the course of pain in patients with knee osteoarthritis (OA), prognostic factors that predict deterioration of pain, the course of physical functioning, and prognostic factors that predict deterioration of physical functioning in persons with knee OA. A search was conducted in PubMed, CINAHL, Embase, Psych-INFO, and SPORTDiscus up to January 2014. A meta-analysis and a qualitative data synthesis were performed. Of the 58 studies included, 39 were of high quality. High heterogeneity across studies (I(2)  >90%) and within study populations (reflected by large SDs of change scores) was found. Therefore, the course of pain and physical functioning was interpreted to be indistinct. We found strong evidence for a number of prognostic factors predicting deterioration in pain (e.g., higher knee pain at baseline, bilateral knee symptoms, and depressive symptoms). We also found strong evidence for a number of prognostic factors predicting deterioration in physical functioning (e.g., worsening in radiographic OA, worsening of knee pain, lower knee extension muscle strength, lower walking speed, and higher comorbidity count). Because of high heterogeneity across studies and within study populations, no conclusions can be drawn with regard to the course of pain and physical functioning. These findings support current research efforts to define subgroups or phenotypes within knee OA populations. Strong evidence was found for knee characteristics, clinical factors, and psychosocial factors as prognostics of deterioration of pain and physical functioning. © 2016, American College of Rheumatology.

Circulating Tumor Cell Count Correlates with Colorectal Neoplasm Progression and Is a Prognostic Marker for Distant Metastasis in Non-Metastatic Patients

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tsai, Wen-Sy; Chen, Jinn-Shiun; Shao, Hung-Jen; Wu, Jen-Chia; Lai-Ming, Jr.; Lu, Si-Hong; Hung, Tsung-Fu; Chiu, Yen-Chi; You, Jeng-Fu; Hsieh, Pao-Shiu; Yeh, Chien-Yuh; Hung, Hsin-Yuan; Chiang, Sum-Fu; Lin, Geng-Ping; Tang, Reiping; Chang, Ying-Chih

2016-04-01

Enumeration of circulating tumor cells (CTCs) has been proven as a prognostic marker for metastatic colorectal cancer (m-CRC) patients. However, the currently available techniques for capturing and enumerating CTCs lack of required sensitivity to be applicable as a prognostic marker for non-metastatic patients as CTCs are even more rare. We have developed a microfluidic device utilizing antibody-conjugated non-fouling coating to eliminate nonspecific binding and to promote the multivalent binding of target cells. We then established the correlation of CTC counts and neoplasm progression through applying this platform to capture and enumerate CTCs in 2 mL of peripheral blood from healthy (n = 27), benign (n = 21), non-metastatic (n = 95), and m-CRC (n = 15) patients. The results showed that the CTC counts progressed from 0, 1, 5, to 36. Importantly, after 2-year follow-up on the non-metastatic CRC patients, we found that those who had ≥5 CTCs were 8 times more likely to develop distant metastasis within one year after curable surgery than those who had <5. In conclusion, by employing a sensitive device, CTC counts show good correlation with colorectal neoplasm, thus CTC may be as a simple, independent prognostic marker for the non-metastatic CRC patients who are at high risk of early recurrence.

A Novel UAV Electric Propulsion Testbed for Diagnostics and Prognostics

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Gorospe, George E., Jr.; Kulkarni, Chetan S.

2017-01-01

This paper presents a novel hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testbed for systems level diagnostics and prognostics of an electric propulsion system used in UAVs (unmanned aerial vehicle). Referencing the all electric, Edge 540T aircraft used in science and research by NASA Langley Flight Research Center, the HIL testbed includes an identical propulsion system, consisting of motors, speed controllers and batteries. Isolated under a controlled laboratory environment, the propulsion system has been instrumented for advanced diagnostics and prognostics. To produce flight like loading on the system a slave motor is coupled to the motor under test (MUT) and provides variable mechanical resistance, and the capability of introducing nondestructive mechanical wear-like frictional loads on the system. This testbed enables the verification of mathematical models of each component of the propulsion system, the repeatable generation of flight-like loads on the system for fault analysis, test-to-failure scenarios, and the development of advanced system level diagnostics and prognostics methods. The capabilities of the testbed are extended through the integration of a LabVIEW-based client for the Live Virtual Constructive Distributed Environment (LVCDC) Gateway which enables both the publishing of generated data for remotely located observers and prognosers and the synchronization the testbed propulsion system with vehicles in the air. The developed HIL testbed gives researchers easy access to a scientifically relevant portion of the aircraft without the overhead and dangers encountered during actual flight.

The prognostic performance of the complement system in septic patients in emergency department: a cohort study.

PubMed

Zhao, Xin; Chen, Yun-Xia; Li, Chun-Sheng

2015-01-01

To investigate the prognostic performance of complement components in septic patients, complement 3, membrane attack complex (MAC) and mannose-binding lectin were measured and compared among adult patients with sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock, as well as between in-hospital nonsurvivors and survivors. The prognostic value of complement components was compared with mortality in emergency department sepsis (MEDS) score. Median complement 3, MAC and mannose-binding lectin increased directly with the sepsis, severe sepsis and septic shock groups, and were significantly higher in nonsurvivors than in survivors. MEDS and MAC independently predicted in-hospital mortality. The prognostic performance of MAC was superior to MEDS as analyzed by receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve.

The clinical impact of staging bone marrow examination on treatment decisions and prognostic assessment of lymphoma patients.

PubMed

Painter, Dan; Smith, Alexandra; de Tute, Ruth; Crouch, Simon; Roman, Eve; Jack, Andrew

2015-07-01

This study investigates the value of performing a staging bone marrow in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), follicular lymphoma (FL) and classical hodgkin lymphoma (CHL). The results of 3112 staging bone marrow examinations were assessed for impact on prognostic assessment and critical treatment decisions. The detection of marrow involvement altered the disease-specific prognostic index for 4·3% of DLBCL, 6·2% of FL and 0·6% of CHL but marrow involvement in DLBCL was an independent prognostic factor. Knowing the marrow status potentially changed treatment in 92 patients, detection of these patients would have required 854 examinations to be performed. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Independent Prognostic Factors for Acute Organophosphorus Pesticide Poisoning.

PubMed

Tang, Weidong; Ruan, Feng; Chen, Qi; Chen, Suping; Shao, Xuebo; Gao, Jianbo; Zhang, Mao

2016-07-01

Acute organophosphorus pesticide poisoning (AOPP) is becoming a significant problem and a potential cause of human mortality because of the abuse of organophosphate compounds. This study aims to determine the independent prognostic factors of AOPP by using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The clinical data for 71 subjects with AOPP admitted to our hospital were retrospectively analyzed. This information included the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, 6-h post-admission blood lactate levels, post-admission 6-h lactate clearance rates, admission blood cholinesterase levels, 6-h post-admission blood cholinesterase levels, cholinesterase activity, blood pH, and other factors. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify all prognostic factors and independent prognostic factors, respectively. A receiver operating characteristic curve was plotted to analyze the testing power of independent prognostic factors. Twelve of 71 subjects died. Admission blood lactate levels, 6-h post-admission blood lactate levels, post-admission 6-h lactate clearance rates, blood pH, and APACHE II scores were identified as prognostic factors for AOPP according to the univariate analysis, whereas only 6-h post-admission blood lactate levels, post-admission 6-h lactate clearance rates, and blood pH were independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. The receiver operating characteristic analysis suggested that post-admission 6-h lactate clearance rates were of moderate diagnostic value. High 6-h post-admission blood lactate levels, low blood pH, and low post-admission 6-h lactate clearance rates were independent prognostic factors identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Copyright © 2016 by Daedalus Enterprises.

Towards Prognostics of Power MOSFETs: Accelerated Aging and Precursors of Failure

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Celaya, Jose R.; Saxena, Abhinav; Wysocki, Philip; Saha, Sankalita; Goebel, Kai

2010-01-01

This paper presents research results dealing with power MOSFETs (metal oxide semiconductor field effect transistor) within the prognostics and health management of electronics. Experimental results are presented for the identification of the on-resistance as a precursor to failure of devices with die-attach degradation as a failure mechanism. Devices are aged under power cycling in order to trigger die-attach damage. In situ measurements of key electrical and thermal parameters are collected throughout the aging process and further used for analysis and computation of the on-resistance parameter. Experimental results show that the devices experience die-attach damage and that the on-resistance captures the degradation process in such a way that it could be used for the development of prognostics algorithms (data-driven or physics-based).

Prognostics for Electronics Components of Avionics Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Celaya, Jose R.; Saha, Bhaskar; Wysocki, Philip F.; Goebel, Kai F.

2009-01-01

Electronics components have and increasingly critical role in avionics systems and for the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research filed as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management. This paper reports on a prognostics application for electronics components of avionics systems, in particular, its application to the Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). The remaining useful life prediction for the IGBT is based on the particle filter framework, leveraging data from an accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. The accelerated aging test provided thermal-electrical overstress by applying thermal cycling to the device. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of the steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

Towards Prognostics for Electronics Components

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saha, Bhaskar; Celaya, Jose R.; Wysocki, Philip F.; Goebel, Kai F.

2013-01-01

Electronics components have an increasingly critical role in avionics systems and in the development of future aircraft systems. Prognostics of such components is becoming a very important research field as a result of the need to provide aircraft systems with system level health management information. This paper focuses on a prognostics application for electronics components within avionics systems, and in particular its application to an Isolated Gate Bipolar Transistor (IGBT). This application utilizes the remaining useful life prediction, accomplished by employing the particle filter framework, leveraging data from accelerated aging tests on IGBTs. These tests induced thermal-electrical overstresses by applying thermal cycling to the IGBT devices. In-situ state monitoring, including measurements of steady-state voltages and currents, electrical transients, and thermal transients are recorded and used as potential precursors of failure.

Inflammation-based prognostic score and number of lymph node metastases are independent prognostic factors in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Takashi; Teruya, Masanori; Kishiki, Tomokazu; Kaneko, Susumu; Endo, Daisuke; Takenaka, Yoshiharu; Miki, Kenji; Kobayashi, Kaoru; Morita, Koji

2010-08-01

Few studies have investigated whether the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS), an inflammation-based prognostic score, is useful for postoperative prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. GPS was calculated on the basis of admission data as follows: patients with elevated C-reactive protein level (>10 mg/l) and hypoalbuminemia (<35 g/l) were assigned to GPS2. Patients with one or no abnormal value were assigned to GPS1 or GPS0. A new scoring system was constructed using independent prognostic variables and was evaluated on whether it could be used to dictate the choice of clinical options. 65 patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma were enrolled. GPS and the number of lymph node metastases were found to be independent prognostic variables. The scoring system comprising GPS and the number of lymph node metastases was found to be effective in the prediction of a long-term outcome (p < 0.0001). Preoperative GPS may be useful for postoperative prognosis of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. GPS and the number of lymph node metastases could be used to identify a subgroup of patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma who are eligible for radical resection but show poor prognosis.

Maximum Diameter and Number of Tumors as a New Prognostic Indicator of Colorectal Liver Metastases.

PubMed

Yoshimoto, Toshiaki; Morine, Yuji; Imura, Satoru; Ikemoto, Tetsuya; Iwahashi, Syuichi; Saito, Y U; Yamada, Sinichiro; Ishikawa, Daichi; Teraoku, Hiroki; Yoshikawa, Masato; Higashijima, Jun; Takasu, Chie; Shimada, Mitsuo

2017-01-01

Surgical resection is currently considered the only potentially curative option as a treatment strategy of colorectal liver metastases (CRLM). However, the criteria for selection of resectable CRLM are not clear. The aim of this study was to confirm a new prognostic indicator of CRLM after hepatic resection. One hundred thirty nine patients who underwent initial surgical resection from 1994 to 2015 were investigated retrospectively. Prognostic factors of overall survival including the product of maximum diameter and number of metastases (MDN) were analyzed. Primary tumor differentiation, vessel invasion, lymph node (LN) metastasis, non-optimally resectable metastases, H score, grade of liver metastases, resection with non-curative intent and MDN were found to be prognostic factors of overall survival (OS). In multivariate analyses of clinicopathological features associated with OS, MDN and non-curative intent were independent prognostic factors. Patients with MDN ≥30 had shown significantly poorer prognosis than patients with MDN <30 in OS and relapse-free survival (RFS). MDN ≥30 is an independent prognostic factor of survival in patients with CRLM and optimal surgical criterion of hepatectomy for CRLM. Copyright© 2017, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Prognostic significance of interventricular septal thickness in patients with AL amyloidosis.

PubMed

Cho, Hyunsoo; Kim, Soo-Jeong; Shim, Chi Young; Hong, Geu-Ru; Ha, Jong-Won; Kim, Yu Ri; Yang, Woo Ick; Chung, Haerim; Jang, Ji Eun; Cheong, June-Won; Min, Yoo Hong; Kim, Jin Seok

2017-09-01

The major prognostic determinant of immunoglobulin light chain (AL) amyloidosis is cardiac involvement. However, the role of interventricular septal thickness (IVST), which reflects the extent of cardiac involvement, remains unclear. Therefore, we analyzed 77 patients with newly diagnosed AL amyloidosis and evaluated the prognostic role of IVST. Fifty patients (64.9%) had cardiac involvement and 17 patients (22.1%) showed IVST >15mm. Among all patients, the revised Mayo Clinic Stage III-IV and IVST >15mm were independently associated with inferior overall survival (OS) in a multivariable analysis. IVST >15mm was also adversely prognostic for OS in a subgroup of advanced-stage (revised Mayo Clinic stage III-IV) patients in a multivariable analysis (P<0.001). Furthermore, advanced-stage patients with IVST >15mm did not show survival benefit from treatment with bortezomib-based regimens and/or autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT). Our study demonstrated that IVST >15mm is adversely prognostic independent of the revised Mayo Clinic staging system in patients with AL amyloidosis. In addition, the degree of IVST might be used as a useful prognostic indicator that can guide the management of patients with AL amyloidosis especially at an advanced stage. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Extended Survival and Prognostic Factors for Patients With ALK-Rearranged Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer and Brain Metastasis

PubMed Central

Johung, Kimberly L.; Yeh, Norman; Desai, Neil B.; Williams, Terence M.; Lautenschlaeger, Tim; Arvold, Nils D.; Ning, Matthew S.; Attia, Albert; Lovly, Christine M.; Goldberg, Sarah; Beal, Kathryn; Yu, James B.; Kavanagh, Brian D.; Chiang, Veronica L.; Camidge, D. Ross

2016-01-01

Purpose We performed a multi-institutional study to identify prognostic factors and determine outcomes for patients with ALK-rearranged non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and brain metastasis. Patients and Methods A total of 90 patients with brain metastases from ALK-rearranged NSCLC were identified from six institutions; 84 of 90 patients received radiotherapy to the brain (stereotactic radiosurgery [SRS] or whole-brain radiotherapy [WBRT]), and 86 of 90 received tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) therapy. Estimates for overall (OS) and intracranial progression-free survival were determined and clinical prognostic factors were identified by Cox proportional hazards modeling. Results Median OS after development of brain metastases was 49.5 months (95% CI, 29.0 months to not reached), and median intracranial progression-free survival was 11.9 months (95% CI, 10.1 to 18.2 months). Forty-five percent of patients with follow-up had progressive brain metastases at death, and repeated interventions for brain metastases were common. Absence of extracranial metastases, Karnofsky performance score ≥ 90, and no history of TKIs before development of brain metastases were associated with improved survival (P = .003, < .001, and < .001, respectively), whereas a single brain metastasis or initial treatment with SRS versus WBRT were not (P = .633 and .666, respectively). Prognostic factors significant by multivariable analysis were used to describe four patient groups with 2-year OS estimates of 33%, 59%, 76%, and 100%, respectively (P < .001). Conclusion Patients with brain metastases from ALK-rearranged NSCLC treated with radiotherapy (SRS and/or WBRT) and TKIs have prolonged survival, suggesting that interventions to control intracranial disease are critical. The refinement of prognosis for this molecular subtype of NSCLC identifies a population of patients likely to benefit from first-line SRS, close CNS observation, and treatment of emergent CNS disease. PMID:26438117

Prediction of overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: development of a prognostic model through a crowdsourced challenge with open clinical trial data

PubMed Central

Guinney, Justin; Wang, Tao; Laajala, Teemu D; Winner, Kimberly Kanigel; Bare, J Christopher; Neto, Elias Chaibub; Khan, Suleiman A; Peddinti, Gopal; Airola, Antti; Pahikkala, Tapio; Mirtti, Tuomas; Yu, Thomas; Bot, Brian M; Shen, Liji; Abdallah, Kald; Norman, Thea; Friend, Stephen; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Soule, Howard; Sweeney, Christopher J; Ryan, Charles J; Scher, Howard I; Sartor, Oliver; Xie, Yang; Aittokallio, Tero; Zhou, Fang Liz; Costello, James C

2016-01-01

Summary Background Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for prediction of survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer but also engage a community of international data scientists to study this disease. Methods Data from the comparator arms of four phase 3 clinical trials in first-line metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were obtained from Project Data Sphere, comprising 476 patients treated with docetaxel and prednisone from the ASCENT2 trial, 526 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone, and placebo in the MAINSAIL trial, 598 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone or prednisolone, and placebo in the VENICE trial, and 470 patients treated with docetaxel and placebo in the ENTHUSE 33 trial. Datasets consisting of more than 150 clinical variables were curated centrally, including demographics, laboratory values, medical history, lesion sites, and previous treatments. Data from ASCENT2, MAINSAIL, and VENICE were released publicly to be used as training data to predict the outcome of interest—namely, overall survival. Clinical data were also released for ENTHUSE 33, but data for outcome variables (overall survival and event status) were hidden from the challenge participants so that ENTHUSE 33 could be used for independent validation. Methods were evaluated using the integrated time-dependent area under the curve (iAUC). The reference model, based on eight clinical variables and a penalised Cox proportional-hazards model, was used to compare method performance. Further validation was done using data from a fifth trial—ENTHUSE M1—in which 266 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with placebo alone. Findings 50 independent methods were developed to predict overall survival and were evaluated through the DREAM challenge. The top performer was based on an ensemble of penalised Cox regression models (ePCR), which uniquely identified predictive interaction effects with immune biomarkers and markers of hepatic and renal function. Overall, ePCR outperformed all other methods (iAUC 0·791; Bayes factor >5) and surpassed the reference model (iAUC 0·743; Bayes factor >20). Both the ePCR model and reference models stratified patients in the ENTHUSE 33 trial into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (ePCR: hazard ratio 3·32, 95% CI 2·39–4·62, p<0·0001; reference model: 2·56, 1·85–3·53, p<0·0001). The new model was validated further on the ENTHUSE M1 cohort with similarly high performance (iAUC 0·768). Meta-analysis across all methods confirmed previously identified predictive clinical variables and revealed aspartate aminotransferase as an important, albeit previously under-reported, prognostic biomarker. Interpretation Novel prognostic factors were delineated, and the assessment of 50 methods developed by independent international teams establishes a benchmark for development of methods in the future. The results of this effort show that data-sharing, when combined with a crowdsourced challenge, is a robust and powerful framework to develop new prognostic models in advanced prostate cancer. Funding Sanofi US Services, Project Data Sphere. PMID:27864015

Prediction of overall survival for patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: development of a prognostic model through a crowdsourced challenge with open clinical trial data.

PubMed

Guinney, Justin; Wang, Tao; Laajala, Teemu D; Winner, Kimberly Kanigel; Bare, J Christopher; Neto, Elias Chaibub; Khan, Suleiman A; Peddinti, Gopal; Airola, Antti; Pahikkala, Tapio; Mirtti, Tuomas; Yu, Thomas; Bot, Brian M; Shen, Liji; Abdallah, Kald; Norman, Thea; Friend, Stephen; Stolovitzky, Gustavo; Soule, Howard; Sweeney, Christopher J; Ryan, Charles J; Scher, Howard I; Sartor, Oliver; Xie, Yang; Aittokallio, Tero; Zhou, Fang Liz; Costello, James C

2017-01-01

Improvements to prognostic models in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer have the potential to augment clinical trial design and guide treatment strategies. In partnership with Project Data Sphere, a not-for-profit initiative allowing data from cancer clinical trials to be shared broadly with researchers, we designed an open-data, crowdsourced, DREAM (Dialogue for Reverse Engineering Assessments and Methods) challenge to not only identify a better prognostic model for prediction of survival in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer but also engage a community of international data scientists to study this disease. Data from the comparator arms of four phase 3 clinical trials in first-line metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were obtained from Project Data Sphere, comprising 476 patients treated with docetaxel and prednisone from the ASCENT2 trial, 526 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone, and placebo in the MAINSAIL trial, 598 patients treated with docetaxel, prednisone or prednisolone, and placebo in the VENICE trial, and 470 patients treated with docetaxel and placebo in the ENTHUSE 33 trial. Datasets consisting of more than 150 clinical variables were curated centrally, including demographics, laboratory values, medical history, lesion sites, and previous treatments. Data from ASCENT2, MAINSAIL, and VENICE were released publicly to be used as training data to predict the outcome of interest-namely, overall survival. Clinical data were also released for ENTHUSE 33, but data for outcome variables (overall survival and event status) were hidden from the challenge participants so that ENTHUSE 33 could be used for independent validation. Methods were evaluated using the integrated time-dependent area under the curve (iAUC). The reference model, based on eight clinical variables and a penalised Cox proportional-hazards model, was used to compare method performance. Further validation was done using data from a fifth trial-ENTHUSE M1-in which 266 patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were treated with placebo alone. 50 independent methods were developed to predict overall survival and were evaluated through the DREAM challenge. The top performer was based on an ensemble of penalised Cox regression models (ePCR), which uniquely identified predictive interaction effects with immune biomarkers and markers of hepatic and renal function. Overall, ePCR outperformed all other methods (iAUC 0·791; Bayes factor >5) and surpassed the reference model (iAUC 0·743; Bayes factor >20). Both the ePCR model and reference models stratified patients in the ENTHUSE 33 trial into high-risk and low-risk groups with significantly different overall survival (ePCR: hazard ratio 3·32, 95% CI 2·39-4·62, p<0·0001; reference model: 2·56, 1·85-3·53, p<0·0001). The new model was validated further on the ENTHUSE M1 cohort with similarly high performance (iAUC 0·768). Meta-analysis across all methods confirmed previously identified predictive clinical variables and revealed aspartate aminotransferase as an important, albeit previously under-reported, prognostic biomarker. Novel prognostic factors were delineated, and the assessment of 50 methods developed by independent international teams establishes a benchmark for development of methods in the future. The results of this effort show that data-sharing, when combined with a crowdsourced challenge, is a robust and powerful framework to develop new prognostic models in advanced prostate cancer. Sanofi US Services, Project Data Sphere. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Value of lncRNA HULC as a Prognostic Factor for Survival of Cancer Outcome: A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Chen, Xian; Lun, Limin; Hou, Huabin; Tian, Runhua; Zhang, Haiping; Zhang, Yunyuan

2017-01-01

Growing evidence from recent studies has shown that lncRNA HULC plays a role in the development of multiple carcinomas. This meta-analysis aimed to analyze available data to identify the prognostic value of HULC in multiple tumors. A systematic search was performed by using PubMed (medline), Embase, ISI Web of Knowledge, Springer, the Cochrane Library, Scopus, BioMed Central, ScienceDirect, Wanfang, Weipu, and China National Knowledge Internet (CNKI) computerized databases from inception to Nov 30, 2016. The quality of the publications was assessed according to the critical review checklist of the Dutch Cochrane Centre proposed by MOOSE and PRISMA. Pooled hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were calculated to summarize the effect. A total of ten studies with 1077 cancer patients were pooled in the present meta-analysis to evaluate the prognostic value of HULC in multiple tumors. High expression levels of HULC were demonstrated to be associated with poor overall survival (OS) (HR=2.44, 95%CI: 1.96-3.03, P=0.000). Subgroup analysis showed that cancer type (digestive or non-digestive disease), residence region (China), sample size (more or less than 100) and follow-up months (more or less than 60) did not alter the predictive value of HULC on OS in various cancers. Additionally, increased HULC expression was found to be moderately associated with tumor stage and progression (III/IV vs. I/II: HR=1.59, 95% CI: 1.31-1.92, P<0.00001). Furthermore, elevated HULC expression significantly predicted distant metastasis (HR=3.90, 95% CI: 1.89-8.02, P=0.0002) and lymph node metastasis (HR=2.04, 95% CI: 1.03-4.05, P=0.04) respectively. No significant heterogeneity was observed among studies except lymph node metastasis. The results indicate that HULC expression level is an independent prognostic biomarker for unfavorable OS and metastasis in general tumors. © 2017 The Author(s)Published by S. Karger AG, Basel.

Genome-wide screen identifies a novel prognostic signature for breast cancer survival

DOE PAGES

Mao, Xuan Y.; Lee, Matthew J.; Zhu, Jeffrey; ...

2017-01-21

Large genomic datasets in combination with clinical data can be used as an unbiased tool to identify genes important in patient survival and discover potential therapeutic targets. We used a genome-wide screen to identify 587 genes significantly and robustly deregulated across four independent breast cancer (BC) datasets compared to normal breast tissue. Gene expression of 381 genes was significantly associated with relapse-free survival (RFS) in BC patients. We used a gene co-expression network approach to visualize the genetic architecture in normal breast and BCs. In normal breast tissue, co-expression cliques were identified enriched for cell cycle, gene transcription, cell adhesion,more » cytoskeletal organization and metabolism. In contrast, in BC, only two major co-expression cliques were identified enriched for cell cycle-related processes or blood vessel development, cell adhesion and mammary gland development processes. Interestingly, gene expression levels of 7 genes were found to be negatively correlated with many cell cycle related genes, highlighting these genes as potential tumor suppressors and novel therapeutic targets. A forward-conditional Cox regression analysis was used to identify a 12-gene signature associated with RFS. A prognostic scoring system was created based on the 12-gene signature. This scoring system robustly predicted BC patient RFS in 60 sampling test sets and was further validated in TCGA and METABRIC BC data. Our integrated study identified a 12-gene prognostic signature that could guide adjuvant therapy for BC patients and includes novel potential molecular targets for therapy.« less

Genome-wide screen identifies a novel prognostic signature for breast cancer survival

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mao, Xuan Y.; Lee, Matthew J.; Zhu, Jeffrey

Large genomic datasets in combination with clinical data can be used as an unbiased tool to identify genes important in patient survival and discover potential therapeutic targets. We used a genome-wide screen to identify 587 genes significantly and robustly deregulated across four independent breast cancer (BC) datasets compared to normal breast tissue. Gene expression of 381 genes was significantly associated with relapse-free survival (RFS) in BC patients. We used a gene co-expression network approach to visualize the genetic architecture in normal breast and BCs. In normal breast tissue, co-expression cliques were identified enriched for cell cycle, gene transcription, cell adhesion,more » cytoskeletal organization and metabolism. In contrast, in BC, only two major co-expression cliques were identified enriched for cell cycle-related processes or blood vessel development, cell adhesion and mammary gland development processes. Interestingly, gene expression levels of 7 genes were found to be negatively correlated with many cell cycle related genes, highlighting these genes as potential tumor suppressors and novel therapeutic targets. A forward-conditional Cox regression analysis was used to identify a 12-gene signature associated with RFS. A prognostic scoring system was created based on the 12-gene signature. This scoring system robustly predicted BC patient RFS in 60 sampling test sets and was further validated in TCGA and METABRIC BC data. Our integrated study identified a 12-gene prognostic signature that could guide adjuvant therapy for BC patients and includes novel potential molecular targets for therapy.« less

Predictors of survival in patients with recurrent ovarian cancer undergoing secondary cytoreductive surgery based on the pooled analysis of an international collaborative cohort

PubMed Central

Zang, R Y; Harter, P; Chi, D S; Sehouli, J; Jiang, R; Tropé, C G; Ayhan, A; Cormio, G; Xing, Y; Wollschlaeger, K M; Braicu, E I; Rabbitt, C A; Oksefjell, H; Tian, W J; Fotopoulou, C; Pfisterer, J; du Bois, A; Berek, J S

2011-01-01

Background: This study aims to identify prognostic factors and to develop a risk model predicting survival in patients undergoing secondary cytoreductive surgery (SCR) for recurrent epithelial ovarian cancer. Methods: Individual data of 1100 patients with recurrent ovarian cancer of a progression-free interval at least 6 months who underwent SCR were pooled analysed. A simplified scoring system for each independent prognostic factor was developed according to its coefficient. Internal validation was performed to assess the discrimination of the model. Results: Complete SCR was strongly associated with the improvement of survival, with a median survival of 57.7 months, when compared with 27.0 months in those with residual disease of 0.1–1 cm and 15.6 months in those with residual disease of >1 cm, respectively (P<0.0001). Progression-free interval (⩽23.1 months vs >23.1 months, hazard ratio (HR): 1.72; score: 2), ascites at recurrence (present vs absent, HR: 1.27; score: 1), extent of recurrence (multiple vs localised disease, HR: 1.38; score: 1) as well as residual disease after SCR (R1 vs R0, HR: 1.90, score: 2; R2 vs R0, HR: 3.0, score: 4) entered into the risk model. Conclusion: This prognostic model may provide evidence to predict survival benefit from secondary cytoreduction in patients with recurrent ovarian cancer. PMID:21878937

Systematic review and meta-analysis of immunohistochemical prognostic biomarkers in resected oesophageal adenocarcinoma

PubMed Central

McCormick Matthews, L H; Noble, F; Tod, J; Jaynes, E; Harris, S; Primrose, J N; Ottensmeier, C; Thomas, G J; Underwood, T J

2015-01-01

Background: Oesophageal adenocarcinoma (OAC) is one of the fastest rising malignancies with continued poor prognosis. Many studies have proposed novel biomarkers but, to date, no immunohistochemical markers of survival after oesophageal resection have entered clinical practice. Here, we systematically review and meta-analyse the published literature, to identify potential biomarkers. Methods: Relevant articles were identified via Ovid medline 1946–2013. For inclusion, studies had to conform to REporting recommendations for tumor MARKer (REMARK) prognostic study criteria. The primary end-point was a pooled hazard ratio (HR) and variance, summarising the effect of marker expression on prognosis. Results: A total of 3059 articles were identified. After exclusion of irrelevant titles and abstracts, 214 articles were reviewed in full. Nine molecules had been examined in more than one study (CD3, CD8, COX-2, EGFR, HER2, Ki67, LgR5, p53 and VEGF) and were meta-analysed. Markers with largest survival effects were COX-2 (HR=2.47, confidence interval (CI)=1.15–3.79), CD3 (HR=0.51, 95% CI=0.32–0.70), CD8 (HR=0.55, CI=0.31–0.80) and EGFR (HR=1.65, 95% CI=1.14–2.16). Discussion: Current methods have not delivered clinically useful molecular prognostic biomarkers in OAC. We have highlighted the paucity of good-quality robust studies in this field. A genome-to-protein approach would be better suited for the development and subsequent validation of biomarkers. Large collaborative projects with standardised methodology will be required to generate clinically useful biomarkers. PMID:26110972

Proposal for Development of EBM-CDSS (Evidence-based Clinical Decision Support System) to Aid Prognostication in Terminally Ill Patients

DTIC Science & Technology

2012-10-01

critically ill patients using artificial neural network synthesised by genetic algorithm,” The Lancet, vol. 347, (no. 9009), pp. 1146-1150, 1996...criterion (Table 2). Statistical Analysis Annual progress report page 46 Data synthesis was conducted according to the study design separately as... synthesis of results across included studies was not performed in the study by Detterbeck and Gibson4 which was undertaken in our study. Another unique

Distributed Prognostics and Health Management with a Wireless Network Architecture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Goebel, Kai; Saha, Sankalita; Sha, Bhaskar

2013-01-01

A heterogeneous set of system components monitored by a varied suite of sensors and a particle-filtering (PF) framework, with the power and the flexibility to adapt to the different diagnostic and prognostic needs, has been developed. Both the diagnostic and prognostic tasks are formulated as a particle-filtering problem in order to explicitly represent and manage uncertainties in state estimation and remaining life estimation. Current state-of-the-art prognostic health management (PHM) systems are mostly centralized in nature, where all the processing is reliant on a single processor. This can lead to a loss in functionality in case of a crash of the central processor or monitor. Furthermore, with increases in the volume of sensor data as well as the complexity of algorithms, traditional centralized systems become for a number of reasons somewhat ungainly for successful deployment, and efficient distributed architectures can be more beneficial. The distributed health management architecture is comprised of a network of smart sensor devices. These devices monitor the health of various subsystems or modules. They perform diagnostics operations and trigger prognostics operations based on user-defined thresholds and rules. The sensor devices, called computing elements (CEs), consist of a sensor, or set of sensors, and a communication device (i.e., a wireless transceiver beside an embedded processing element). The CE runs in either a diagnostic or prognostic operating mode. The diagnostic mode is the default mode where a CE monitors a given subsystem or component through a low-weight diagnostic algorithm. If a CE detects a critical condition during monitoring, it raises a flag. Depending on availability of resources, a networked local cluster of CEs is formed that then carries out prognostics and fault mitigation by efficient distribution of the tasks. It should be noted that the CEs are expected not to suspend their previous tasks in the prognostic mode. When the prognostics task is over, and after appropriate actions have been taken, all CEs return to their original default configuration. Wireless technology-based implementation would ensure more flexibility in terms of sensor placement. It would also allow more sensors to be deployed because the overhead related to weights of wired systems is not present. Distributed architectures are furthermore generally robust with regard to recovery from node failures.

Prognostic nomogram for previously untreated adult patients with acute myeloid leukemia

PubMed Central

Zheng, Zhuojun; Li, Xiaodong; Zhu, Yuandong; Gu, Weiying; Xie, Xiaobao; Jiang, Jingting

2016-01-01

This study was designed to perform an acceptable prognostic nomogram for acute myeloid leukemia. The clinical data from 311 patients from our institution and 165 patients generated with Cancer Genome Atlas Research Network were reviewed. A prognostic nomogram was designed according to the Cox's proportional hazard model to predict overall survival (OS). To compare the capacity of the nomogram with that of the current prognostic system, the concordance index (C-index) was used to validate the accuracy as well as the calibration curve. The nomogram included 6 valuable variables: age, risk stratifications based on cytogenetic abnormalities, status of FLT3-ITD mutation, status of NPM1 mutation, expression of CD34, and expression of HLA-DR. The C-indexes were 0.71 and 0.68 in the primary and validation cohort respectively, which were superior to the predictive capacity of the current prognostic systems in both cohorts. The nomogram allowed both patients with acute myeloid leukemia and physicians to make prediction of OS individually prior to treatment. PMID:27689396

Neuroendocrine tumors of colon and rectum: validation of clinical and prognostic values of the World Health Organization 2010 grading classifications and European Neuroendocrine Tumor Society staging systems.

PubMed

Shen, Chaoyong; Yin, Yuan; Chen, Huijiao; Tang, Sumin; Yin, Xiaonan; Zhou, Zongguang; Zhang, Bo; Chen, Zhixin

2017-03-28

This study evaluated and compared the clinical and prognostic values of the grading criteria used by the World Health Organization (WHO) and the European Neuroendocrine Tumors Society (ENETS). Moreover, this work assessed the current best prognostic model for colorectal neuroendocrine tumors (CRNETs). The 2010 WHO classifications and the ENETS systems can both stratify the patients into prognostic groups, although the 2010 WHO criteria is more applicable to CRNET patients. Along with tumor location, the 2010 WHO criteria are important independent prognostic parameters for CRNETs in both univariate and multivariate analyses through Cox regression (P<0.05). Data from 192 consecutive patients histopathologically diagnosed with CRNETs and had undergone surgical resection from January 2009 to May 2016 in a single center were retrospectively analyzed. Findings suggest that the WHO classifications are superior over the ENETS classification system in predicting the prognosis of CRNETs. Additionally, the WHO classifications can be widely used in clinical practice.

bc-GenExMiner 3.0: new mining module computes breast cancer gene expression correlation analyses.

PubMed

Jézéquel, Pascal; Frénel, Jean-Sébastien; Campion, Loïc; Guérin-Charbonnel, Catherine; Gouraud, Wilfried; Ricolleau, Gabriel; Campone, Mario

2013-01-01

We recently developed a user-friendly web-based application called bc-GenExMiner (http://bcgenex.centregauducheau.fr), which offered the possibility to evaluate prognostic informativity of genes in breast cancer by means of a 'prognostic module'. In this study, we develop a new module called 'correlation module', which includes three kinds of gene expression correlation analyses. The first one computes correlation coefficient between 2 or more (up to 10) chosen genes. The second one produces two lists of genes that are most correlated (positively and negatively) to a 'tested' gene. A gene ontology (GO) mining function is also proposed to explore GO 'biological process', 'molecular function' and 'cellular component' terms enrichment for the output lists of most correlated genes. The third one explores gene expression correlation between the 15 telomeric and 15 centromeric genes surrounding a 'tested' gene. These correlation analyses can be performed in different groups of patients: all patients (without any subtyping), in molecular subtypes (basal-like, HER2+, luminal A and luminal B) and according to oestrogen receptor status. Validation tests based on published data showed that these automatized analyses lead to results consistent with studies' conclusions. In brief, this new module has been developed to help basic researchers explore molecular mechanisms of breast cancer. DATABASE URL: http://bcgenex.centregauducheau.fr

Luteinizing Hormone and Testosterone Levels during Acute Phase of Severe Traumatic Brain Injury: Prognostic Implications for Adult Male Patients

PubMed Central

Hohl, Alexandre; Zanela, Fernando Areas; Ghisi, Gabriela; Ronsoni, Marcelo Fernando; Diaz, Alexandre Paim; Schwarzbold, Marcelo Liborio; Dafre, Alcir Luiz; Reddi, Benjamin; Lin, Kátia; Pizzol, Felipe Dal; Walz, Roger

2018-01-01

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) is a worldwide core public health problem affecting mostly young male subjects. An alarming increase in incidence has turned TBI into a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in young adults as well as a tremendous resource burden on the health and welfare sector. Hormone dysfunction is highly prevalent during the acute phase of severe TBI. In particular, investigation of the luteinizing hormone (LH) and testosterone levels during the acute phase of severe TBI in male has identified a high incidence of low testosterone levels in male patients (36.5–100%) but the prognostic significance of which remains controversial. Two independent studies showed that normal or elevated levels of LH levels earlier during hospitalization are significantly associated with higher mortality/morbidity. The association between LH levels and prognosis was independent of other predictive variables such as neuroimaging, admission Glasgow coma scale, and pupillary reaction. The possible mechanisms underlying this association and further research directions in this field are discussed. Overall, current data suggest that LH levels during the acute phase of TBI might contribute to accurate prognostication and further prospective multicentric studies are required to develop more sophisticated predictive models incorporating biomarkers such as LH in the quest for accurate outcome prediction following TBI. Moreover, the potential therapeutic benefits of modulating LH during the acute phase of TBI warrant investigation. PMID:29487565

The Predictive Prognostic Values of Serum TNF-α in Comparison to SOFA Score Monitoring in Critically Ill Patients

PubMed Central

Yousef, Ayman Abd Al-Maksoud; Suliman, Ghada Abdulmomen

2013-01-01

Background. The use of inflammatory markers to follow up critically ill patients is controversial. The short time frame, the need for frequent and serial measurement of biomarkers, the presence of soluble receptor and their relatively high cost are the major drawbacks. Our study's objective is to compare the prognostic values of serum TNF-α and SOFA score monitoring in critically ill patients. Patients and Methods. A total of ninety patients were included in the study. Forty-five patients developed septic complication (sepsis group). Forty-five patients were critically ill without evidence of infectious organism (SIRS group). Patients' data include clinical status, central venous pressure, and laboratory analysis were measured. A serum level of TNF-α and SOFA score were monitored. Results. Monitoring of TNF-α revealed significant elevation of TNF-α at 3rd and 5th days of ICU admission in both groups. Monitoring of SOFA score revealed significant elevation of SOFA scores in both groups throughout their ICU stay, particularly in nonsurvivors. Positive predictive ability of SOFA score was demonstrated in critically ill patients. Conclusion. Transient significant increase in serum levels of TNF-α were detected in septic patients. Persistent elevation of SOFA score was detected in nonsurvivor septic patients. SOFA score is an independent prognostic value in critically ill patients. PMID:24175285

Match and mismatch - comparing plant phenological metrics from ground-observations and from a prognostic model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rutishauser, This; Stöckli, Reto; Jeanneret, François; Peñuelas, Josep

2010-05-01

Changes in the seasonality of life cycles of plants as recorded in phenological observations have been widely analysed at the species level with data available for many decades back in time. At the same time, seasonality changes in satellite-based observations and prognostic phenology models comprise information at the pixel-size or landscape scale. Change analysis of satellite-based records is restricted due to relatively short satellite records that further include gaps while model-based analyses are biased due to current model deficiencies., At 30 selected sites across Europe, we analysed three different sources of plant seasonality during the 1971-2000 period. Data consisted of (1) species-specific development stages of flowering and leave-out with different species observed at each site. (2) We used a synthetic phenological metric that integrates the common interannual phenological signal across all species at one site. (3) We estimated daily Leaf Area Index with a prognostic phenology model. The prior uncertainties of the model's empirical parameter space are constrained by assimilating the Fraction of Photosynthetically Active Radiation absorbed by vegetation (FPAR) and Leaf Area Index (LAI) from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We extracted the day of year when the 25%, 50% and 75% thresholds were passed each spring. The question arises how the three phenological signals compare and correlate across climate zones in Europe. Is there a match between single species observations, species-based ground-observed metrics and the landscape-scale prognostic model? Are there single key-species across Europe that best represent a landscape scale measure from the prognostic model? Can one source substitute another and serve as proxy-data? What can we learn from potential mismatches? Focusing on changes in spring this contribution presents first results of an ongoing comparison study from a number of European test sites that will be extended to the pan-European phenological database Cost725 and PEP725.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Significance of DSM-5 Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome in Services for Individuals at Ultra High Risk for Psychosis.

PubMed

Fusar-Poli, Paolo; De Micheli, Andrea; Cappucciati, Marco; Rutigliano, Grazia; Davies, Cathy; Ramella-Cravaro, Valentina; Oliver, Dominic; Bonoldi, Ilaria; Rocchetti, Matteo; Gavaghan, Lauren; Patel, Rashmi; McGuire, Philip

2018-02-15

The diagnostic and prognostic significance of the DSM-5-defined Attenuated Psychosis Syndrome (DSM-5-APS) in individuals undergoing an ultra high risk (UHR) clinical assessment for suspicion of psychosis risk is unknown. Prospective cohort study including all consecutive help-seeking individuals undergoing both a DSM-5-APS and a Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS 12/2006) assessment for psychosis risk at the Outreach and Support in South London (OASIS) UHR service (March 2013-April 2014). The diagnostic significance of DSM-5-APS was assessed with percent overall agreement, prevalence bias adjusted kappa, Bowker's test, Stuart-Maxwell test, residual analysis; the prognostic significance with Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier failure function, time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) and net benefits analysis. The impact of specific revisions of the DSM-5-APS was further tested. In 203 help-seeking individuals undergoing UHR assessment, the agreement between the DSM-5-APS and the CAARMS 12/2006 was only moderate (kappa 0.59). Among 142 nonpsychotic cases, those meeting DSM-5-APS criteria had a 5-fold probability (HR = 5.379) of developing psychosis compared to those not meeting DSM-5-APS criteria, with a 21-month cumulative risk of psychosis of 28.17% vs 6.49%, respectively. The DSM-5-APS prognostic accuracy was acceptable (AUC 0.76 at 24 months) and similar to the CAARMS 12/2006. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful to guide the provision of indicated interventions within a 7%-35% (2-year) range of psychosis risk. The removal of the criterion E or C of the DSM-5-APS may improve its prognostic performance and transdiagnostic value. The DSM-5-APS designation may be clinically useful in individuals accessing clinical services for psychosis prevention. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Maryland Psychiatric Research Center. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Predictive and Prognostic Factors in Ovarian and Uterine Carcinosarcomas

PubMed Central

Cicin, İrfan; Özatlı, Tahsin; Türkmen, Esma; Özturk, Türkan; Özçelik, Melike; Çabuk, Devrim; Gökdurnalı, Ayşe; Balvan, Özlem; Yıldız, Yaşar; Şeker, Metin; Özdemir, Nuriye; Yapar, Burcu; Tanrıverdi, Özgür; Günaydin, Yusuf; Menekşe, Serkan; Öksüzoğlu, Berna; Aksoy, Asude; Erdogan, Bülent; Bekir Hacıoglu, M.; Arpaci, Erkan; Sevinç, Alper

2016-01-01

Background: Prognostic factors and the standard treatment approach for gynaecological carcinosarcomas have not yet been clearly defined. Although carcinosarcomas are more aggressive than pure epithelial tumours, they are treated similarly. Serous/clear cell and endometrioid components may be predictive factors for the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy (CT) or radiotherapy (RT) or RT in patients with uterine and ovarian carcinosarcomas. Heterologous carcinosarcomas may benefit more from adjuvant CT. Aims: We aimed to define the prognostic and predictive factors associated with treatment options in ovarian (OCS) and uterine carcinosarcoma (UCS). Study Design: Retrospective cross-sectional study Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with ovarian and uterine carcinosarcoma from 2000 to 2013, and 127 women were included in this study (24 ovarian and 103 uterine). Patients admitted to seventeen oncology centres in Turkey between 2000 and December 2013 with a histologically proven diagnosis of uterine carcinosarcoma with FIGO 2009 stage I–III and patients with sufficient data obtained from well-kept medical records were included in this study. Stage IV tumours were excluded. The patient records were retrospectively reviewed. Data from 104 patients were evaluated for this study. Results: Age (≥70 years) was a poor prognostic factor for UCS (p=0.036). Pelvic±para aortic lymph node dissection did not affect overall survival (OS) (p=0.35). Macroscopic residual disease was related with OS (p<0.01). The median OS was significantly longer in stage I–II patients than stage III patients (p=0.03). Adjuvant treatment improved OS (p=0.013). Adjuvant radiotherapy tended to increase the median OS (p=0.075). However, this tendency was observed in UCS (p=0.08) rather than OCS (p=0.6).Adjuvant chemotherapy had no effect on OS (p=0.15).Adjuvant radiotherapy significantly prolonged the median OS in patients with endometrioid component (p=0.034). A serous/clear cell component was a negative prognostic factor (p=0.035). Patients with serous/clear cell histology for whom adjuvant chemotherapy was applied had significantly longer OS (p=0.019), and there was no beneficial effect of adjuvant radiotherapy (p=0.4). Adjuvant chemotherapy was effective in heterologous tumours (p=0.026). In multivariate analysis, the stage and chemotherapy were prognostic factors for all patients. Age was an independent prognostic factor for UCS. However, serous/clear cell histology and radiotherapy tended to be significant prognostic factors. Conclusion: The primary location, the histological type of sarcomatous and the epithelial component may be predictive factors for the efficacy of chemotherapy or radiotherapy in UCS and OCS. PMID:27761279

Value of intracochlear electrically evoked auditory brainstem response after cochlear implantation in patients with narrow internal auditory canal.

PubMed

Song, Mee Hyun; Bae, Mi Ran; Kim, Hee Nam; Lee, Won-Sang; Yang, Won Sun; Choi, Jae Young

2010-08-01

Cochlear implantation in patients with narrow internal auditory canal (IAC) can result in variable outcomes; however, preoperative evaluations have limitations in accurately predicting outcomes. In this study, we analyzed the outcomes of cochlear implantation in patients with narrow IAC and correlated the intracochlear electrically evoked auditory brainstem response (EABR) findings to postoperative performance to determine the prognostic significance of intracochlear EABR. Retrospective case series at a tertiary hospital. Thirteen profoundly deaf patients with narrow IAC who received cochlear implantation from 2002 to 2008 were included in this study. Postoperative performance was evaluated after at least 12 months of follow-up, and postoperative intracochlear EABR was measured to determine its correlation with outcome. The clinical significance of electrically evoked compound action potential (ECAP) was also analyzed. Patients with narrow IAC showed postoperative auditory performances ranging from CAP 0 to 4 after cochlear implantation. Intracochlear EABR measured postoperatively demonstrated prognostic value in the prediction of long-term outcomes, whereas ECAP measurements failed to show a significant correlation with outcome. Consistent with the advantages of intracochlear EABR over extracochlear EABR, this study demonstrates that intracochlear EABR has prognostic significance in predicting long-term outcomes in patients with narrow IAC. Intracochlear EABR measured either intraoperatively or in the early postoperative period may play an important role in deciding whether to continue with auditory rehabilitation using a cochlear implant or to switch to an auditory brainstem implant so as not to miss the optimal timing for language development.

Statistical considerations on prognostic models for glioma

PubMed Central

Molinaro, Annette M.; Wrensch, Margaret R.; Jenkins, Robert B.; Eckel-Passow, Jeanette E.

2016-01-01

Given the lack of beneficial treatments in glioma, there is a need for prognostic models for therapeutic decision making and life planning. Recently several studies defining subtypes of glioma have been published. Here, we review the statistical considerations of how to build and validate prognostic models, explain the models presented in the current glioma literature, and discuss advantages and disadvantages of each model. The 3 statistical considerations to establishing clinically useful prognostic models are: study design, model building, and validation. Careful study design helps to ensure that the model is unbiased and generalizable to the population of interest. During model building, a discovery cohort of patients can be used to choose variables, construct models, and estimate prediction performance via internal validation. Via external validation, an independent dataset can assess how well the model performs. It is imperative that published models properly detail the study design and methods for both model building and validation. This provides readers the information necessary to assess the bias in a study, compare other published models, and determine the model's clinical usefulness. As editors, reviewers, and readers of the relevant literature, we should be cognizant of the needed statistical considerations and insist on their use. PMID:26657835

Predicting mortality in sick African children: the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) Score.

PubMed

George, Elizabeth C; Walker, A Sarah; Kiguli, Sarah; Olupot-Olupot, Peter; Opoka, Robert O; Engoru, Charles; Akech, Samuel O; Nyeko, Richard; Mtove, George; Reyburn, Hugh; Berkley, James A; Mpoya, Ayub; Levin, Michael; Crawley, Jane; Gibb, Diana M; Maitland, Kathryn; Babiker, Abdel G

2015-07-31

Mortality in paediatric emergency care units in Africa often occurs within the first 24 h of admission and remains high. Alongside effective triage systems, a practical clinical bedside risk score to identify those at greatest risk could contribute to reducing mortality. Data collected during the Fluid As Expansive Supportive Therapy (FEAST) trial, a multi-centre trial involving 3,170 severely ill African children, were analysed to identify clinical and laboratory prognostic factors for mortality. Multivariable Cox regression was used to build a model in this derivation dataset based on clinical parameters that could be quickly and easily assessed at the bedside. A score developed from the model coefficients was externally validated in two admissions datasets from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and compared to published risk scores using Area Under the Receiver Operating Curve (AUROC) and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests. The Net Reclassification Index (NRI) was used to identify additional laboratory prognostic factors. A risk score using 8 clinical variables (temperature, heart rate, capillary refill time, conscious level, severe pallor, respiratory distress, lung crepitations, and weak pulse volume) was developed. The score ranged from 0-10 and had an AUROC of 0.82 (95 % CI, 0.77-0.87) in the FEAST trial derivation set. In the independent validation datasets, the score had an AUROC of 0.77 (95 % CI, 0.72-0.82) amongst admissions to a paediatric high dependency ward and 0.86 (95 % CI, 0.82-0.89) amongst general paediatric admissions. This discriminative ability was similar to, or better than other risk scores in the validation datasets. NRI identified lactate, blood urea nitrogen, and pH to be important prognostic laboratory variables that could add information to the clinical score. Eight clinical prognostic factors that could be rapidly assessed by healthcare staff for triage were combined to create the FEAST Paediatric Emergency Triage (PET) score and externally validated. The score discriminated those at highest risk of fatal outcome at the point of hospital admission and compared well to other published risk scores. Further laboratory tests were also identified as prognostic factors which could be added if resources were available or as indices of severity for comparison between centres in future research studies.

Using mixed treatment comparisons and meta-regression to perform indirect comparisons to estimate the efficacy of biologic treatments in rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Nixon, R M; Bansback, N; Brennan, A

2007-03-15

Mixed treatment comparison (MTC) is a generalization of meta-analysis. Instead of the same treatment for a disease being tested in a number of studies, a number of different interventions are considered. Meta-regression is also a generalization of meta-analysis where an attempt is made to explain the heterogeneity between the treatment effects in the studies by regressing on study-level covariables. Our focus is where there are several different treatments considered in a number of randomized controlled trials in a specific disease, the same treatment can be applied in several arms within a study, and where differences in efficacy can be explained by differences in the study settings. We develop methods for simultaneously comparing several treatments and adjusting for study-level covariables by combining ideas from MTC and meta-regression. We use a case study from rheumatoid arthritis. We identified relevant trials of biologic verses standard therapy or placebo and extracted the doses, comparators and patient baseline characteristics. Efficacy is measured using the log odds ratio of achieving six-month ACR50 responder status. A random-effects meta-regression model is fitted which adjusts the log odds ratio for study-level prognostic factors. A different random-effect distribution on the log odds ratios is allowed for each different treatment. The odds ratio is found as a function of the prognostic factors for each treatment. The apparent differences in the randomized trials between tumour necrosis factor alpha (TNF- alpha) antagonists are explained by differences in prognostic factors and the analysis suggests that these drugs as a class are not different from each other. Copyright (c) 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The prognostic value of ABO blood group in cancer patients

PubMed Central

Franchini, Massimo; Liumbruno, Giancarlo M.; Lippi, Giuseppe

2016-01-01

The antigens of the ABO system are expressed on red blood cell membranes as well as on the surface of several other normal and pathological cells and tissues. Following the first clinical observations more than 60 years ago, the role of ABO blood group in cancer biology has been intensely studied by several investigators, and it is now widely recognised that ABO antigens are associated with the risk of developing several types of tumours, namely pancreatic and gastric cancers. However, whether this association also affects the clinical outcome of cancer patients is less certain. In this narrative review, based on literature data, we discuss the role of ABO blood types as prognostic biomarkers in different types of cancers. The current knowledge of the underlying pathogenic mechanisms of the association is also analysed. PMID:26674825

Dynamic and Structural Gas Turbine Engine Modeling

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turso, James A.

2003-01-01

Model the interactions between the structural dynamics and the performance dynamics of a gas turbine engine. Generally these two aspects are considered separate, unrelated phenomena and are studied independently. For diagnostic purposes, it is desirable to bring together as much information as possible, and that involves understanding how performance is affected by structural dynamics (if it is) and vice versa. This can involve the relationship between thrust response and the excitation of structural modes, for instance. The job will involve investigating and characterizing these dynamical relationships, generating a model that incorporates them, and suggesting and/or developing diagnostic and prognostic techniques that can be incorporated in a data fusion system. If no coupling is found, at the least a vibration model should be generated that can be used for diagnostics and prognostics related to blade loss, for instance.

Design and validation of a model to predict early mortality in haemodialysis patients.

PubMed

Mauri, Joan M; Clèries, Montse; Vela, Emili

2008-05-01

Mortality and morbidity rates are higher in patients receiving haemodialysis therapy than in the general population. Detection of risk factors related to early death in these patients could be of aid for clinical and administrative decision making. Objectives. The aims of this study were (1) to identify risk factors (comorbidity and variables specific to haemodialysis) associated with death in the first year following the start of haemodialysis and (2) to design and validate a prognostic model to quantify the probability of death for each patient. An analysis was carried out on all patients starting haemodialysis treatment in Catalonia during the period 1997-2003 (n = 5738). The data source was the Renal Registry of Catalonia, a mandatory population registry. Patients were randomly divided into two samples: 60% (n = 3455) of the total were used to develop the prognostic model and the remaining 40% (n = 2283) to validate the model. Logistic regression analysis was used to construct the model. One-year mortality in the total study population was 16.5%. The predictive model included the following variables: age, sex, primary renal disease, grade of functional autonomy, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, malignant processes, chronic liver disease, cardiovascular disease, initial vascular access and malnutrition. The analyses showed adequate calibration for both the sample to develop the model and the validation sample (Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic 0.97 and P = 0.49, respectively) as well as adequate discrimination (ROC curve 0.78 in both cases). Risk factors implicated in mortality at one year following the start of haemodialysis have been determined and a prognostic model designed. The validated, easy-to-apply model quantifies individual patient risk attributable to various factors, some of them amenable to correction by directed interventions.

The long-term prognosis of newly diagnosed epilepsy in Egypt: A retrospective cohort study from an epilepsy center in Greater Cairo.

PubMed

Ashmawi, Ayman; Hosny, Hassan; Abdelalim, Ahmed; Bianchi, Elisa; Beghi, Ettore

2016-10-01

To investigate the long-term prognosis and prognostic patterns of epilepsy in a single practice study from a developing country. Consecutive patients first seen in an epilepsy clinic in Cairo, Egypt between January 1994 and December 2009 with at least 4 years of follow-up were included. Demographic, clinical, EEG and imaging findings at diagnosis were recorded. At follow-up, treatment was adjusted as clinically indicated. The response to the first drug was defined as 6-month seizure remission. Outcome measures included 2-year remission (R) and 2-year sustained remission (SR). Prognostic patterns were early (ER) and late remission (LR), relapsing-remitting (RR) course, worsening course (WC) and no remission. Included were 287 patients aged 1-66 years and followed for 2237.0 person-years (mean 7.8 years). 244 (85%) attained 2-year R. The cumulative time dependent probability of R was 86.7% at 10 years. Only the response to the first drug predicted R. 82 (28.6%) attained 2-year SR. The probability of SR was 40.9% at 10 years. Poor treatment response and nocturnal seizures predicted lowered SR. R and SR were inversely correlated to the number of drugs. 208 patients (72.5%) entered ER, 36 (12.5%) entered LR, 138 (48.1%) had RR course. A WC was present in 24 (8.4%), 43 (15.0%) never entered remission. Prognostic patterns varied with neurological examination, MRI findings, pre-treatment seizure frequency, seizure type, number of seizure types, etiology, syndrome and response to first drug. The long-term prognosis of newly diagnosed epilepsy patients from a developing country is in keeping with published reports. Copyright © 2016 British Epilepsy Association. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distributed Prognostic Health Management with Gaussian Process Regression

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Saha, Sankalita; Saha, Bhaskar; Saxena, Abhinav; Goebel, Kai Frank

2010-01-01

Distributed prognostics architecture design is an enabling step for efficient implementation of health management systems. A major challenge encountered in such design is formulation of optimal distributed prognostics algorithms. In this paper. we present a distributed GPR based prognostics algorithm whose target platform is a wireless sensor network. In addition to challenges encountered in a distributed implementation, a wireless network poses constraints on communication patterns, thereby making the problem more challenging. The prognostics application that was used to demonstrate our new algorithms is battery prognostics. In order to present trade-offs within different prognostic approaches, we present comparison with the distributed implementation of a particle filter based prognostics for the same battery data.

Reporting and Methodology of Multivariable Analyses in Prognostic Observational Studies Published in 4 Anesthesiology Journals: A Methodological Descriptive Review.

PubMed

Guglielminotti, Jean; Dechartres, Agnès; Mentré, France; Montravers, Philippe; Longrois, Dan; Laouénan, Cedric

2015-10-01

Prognostic research studies in anesthesiology aim to identify risk factors for an outcome (explanatory studies) or calculate the risk of this outcome on the basis of patients' risk factors (predictive studies). Multivariable models express the relationship between predictors and an outcome and are used in both explanatory and predictive studies. Model development demands a strict methodology and a clear reporting to assess its reliability. In this methodological descriptive review, we critically assessed the reporting and methodology of multivariable analysis used in observational prognostic studies published in anesthesiology journals. A systematic search was conducted on Medline through Web of Knowledge, PubMed, and journal websites to identify observational prognostic studies with multivariable analysis published in Anesthesiology, Anesthesia & Analgesia, British Journal of Anaesthesia, and Anaesthesia in 2010 and 2011. Data were extracted by 2 independent readers. First, studies were analyzed with respect to reporting of outcomes, design, size, methods of analysis, model performance (discrimination and calibration), model validation, clinical usefulness, and STROBE (i.e., Strengthening the Reporting of Observational Studies in Epidemiology) checklist. A reporting rate was calculated on the basis of 21 items of the aforementioned points. Second, they were analyzed with respect to some predefined methodological points. Eighty-six studies were included: 87.2% were explanatory and 80.2% investigated a postoperative event. The reporting was fairly good, with a median reporting rate of 79% (75% in explanatory studies and 100% in predictive studies). Six items had a reporting rate <36% (i.e., the 25th percentile), with some of them not identified in the STROBE checklist: blinded evaluation of the outcome (11.9%), reason for sample size (15.1%), handling of missing data (36.0%), assessment of colinearity (17.4%), assessment of interactions (13.9%), and calibration (34.9%). When reported, a few methodological shortcomings were observed, both in explanatory and predictive studies, such as an insufficient number of events of the outcome (44.6%), exclusion of cases with missing data (93.6%), or categorization of continuous variables (65.1%.). The reporting of multivariable analysis was fairly good and could be further improved by checking reporting guidelines and EQUATOR Network website. Limiting the number of candidate variables, including cases with missing data, and not arbitrarily categorizing continuous variables should be encouraged.

Causes of death and prognostic factors in multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1: a prospective study: comparison of 106 MEN1/Zollinger-Ellison syndrome patients with 1613 literature MEN1 patients with or without pancreatic endocrine tumors.

PubMed

Ito, Tetsuhide; Igarashi, Hisato; Uehara, Hirotsugu; Berna, Marc J; Jensen, Robert T

2013-05-01

Multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN1) is classically characterized by the development of functional or nonfunctional hyperplasia or tumors in endocrine tissues (parathyroid, pancreas, pituitary, adrenal). Because effective treatments have been developed for the hormone excess state, which was a major cause of death in these patients in the past, coupled with the recognition that nonendocrine tumors increasingly develop late in the disease course, the natural history of the disease has changed. An understanding of the current causes of death is important to tailor treatment for these patients and to help identify prognostic factors; however, it is generally lacking.To add to our understanding, we conducted a detailed analysis of the causes of death and prognostic factors from a prospective long-term National Institutes of Health (NIH) study of 106 MEN1 patients with pancreatic endocrine tumors with Zollinger-Ellison syndrome (MEN1/ZES patients) and compared our results to those from the pooled literature data of 227 patients with MEN1 with pancreatic endocrine tumors (MEN1/PET patients) reported in case reports or small series, and to 1386 patients reported in large MEN1 literature series. In the NIH series over a mean follow-up of 24.5 years, 24 (23%) patients died (14 MEN1-related and 10 non-MEN1-related deaths). Comparing the causes of death with the results from the 227 patients in the pooled literature series, we found that no patients died of acute complications due to acid hypersecretion, and 8%-14% died of other hormone excess causes, which is similar to the results in 10 large MEN1 literature series published since 1995. In the 2 series (the NIH and pooled literature series), two-thirds of patients died from an MEN1-related cause and one-third from a non-MEN1-related cause, which agrees with the mean values reported in 10 large MEN1 series in the literature, although in the literature the causes of death varied widely. In the NIH and pooled literature series, the main causes of MEN1-related deaths were due to the malignant nature of the PETs, followed by the malignant nature of thymic carcinoid tumors. These results differ from the results of a number of the literature series, especially those reported before the 1990s. The causes of non-MEN1-related death for the 2 series, in decreasing frequency, were cardiovascular disease, other nonendocrine tumors > lung diseases, cerebrovascular diseases. The most frequent non-MEN1-related tumor deaths were colorectal, renal > lung > breast, oropharyngeal. Although both overall and disease-related survival are better than in the past (30-yr survival of NIH series: 82% overall, 88% disease-related), the mean age at death was 55 years, which is younger than expected for the general population.Detailed analysis of causes of death correlated with clinical, laboratory, and tumor characteristics of patients in the 2 series allowed identification of a number of prognostic factors. Poor prognostic factors included higher fasting gastrin levels, presence of other functional hormonal syndromes, need for >3 parathyroidectomies, presence of liver metastases or distant metastases, aggressive PET growth, large PETs, or the development of new lesions.The results of this study have helped define the causes of death of MEN1 patients at present, and have enabled us to identify a number of prognostic factors that should be helpful in tailoring treatment for these patients for both short- and long-term management, as well as in directing research efforts to better define the natural history of the disease and the most important factors determining long-term survival at present.

Prognostic value of clinical variables and liver histology for development of fibrosis and cirrhosis in autoimmune hepatitis.

PubMed

Puustinen, Lauri; Boyd, Sonja; Mustonen, Harri; Arkkila, Perttu; Arola, Johanna; Färkkilä, Martti

2017-03-01

In autoimmune hepatitis, data on the prognostic value of baseline liver biopsy and the sequential histology is controversial. Our aim was to evaluate the prognostic value of clinical variables and biopsy at the time of diagnosis and during the disease course. All 98 patients in our hospital during 1995-2012 were included. Sequential biopsies were available in 66 patients. Analyses based on clinical and histological variables were performed to find parameters predicting the progression of fibrosis, and development of cirrhosis. At the time of diagnosis, 7% were cirrhotic. Fibrosis progressed in 28 (42%) patients, remained stable in 26 (39%) and resolved in 12 (18%) patients. Findings which predicted fibrosis progression, were baseline total inflammation (odds ratio 1.7, 95% CI 1.01-2.8), cumulative total inflammation (1.8, 95% CI 1.01-3.2, rosette formation (2.8, 95% CI 1.1-7.1), absence of pericholangitis (0.4, 95% CI 0.1-1.0) and necrosis (1.4, 95% CI 1.0-2.0). Risk factors for the development of cirrhosis were cholestasis (4.6, 95% CI 1.2-16.9), interphase inflammation (3.4, 95% CI 1.1-10.4), and necrosis (3.3, 95% CI 1.2-9.7). In a cumulative model, cumulative total inflammation (4.5, 95% CI 1.4-15.0), necrosis (6.7, 95% CI 1.3-34.6), or cumulative immunoglobulin G load (61.8, 95% CI 2.0-1954.3) were risk factors. None of the patients with histological pericholangitis or granulomas developed cirrhosis. The histology provides prognostic information regarding progression of fibrosis or the development of cirrhosis. The total cumulative inflammatory activity predicts the progression of fibrosis, whereas baseline fibrosis, interphase inflammation, cholestasis, necrosis, as well as the cumulative total inflammation and cumulative immunoglobulin G, are risk factors for cirrhosis.

Clinical Features and Prognostic Factors of Hodgkin's Lymphoma: A Single Center Experience.

PubMed

Kılıçkap, Saadettin; Barışta, Ibrahim; Ulger, Sükran; Celik, Ismail; Selek, Uğur; Yıldız, Ferah; Kars, Ayşe; Ozışık, Yavuz; Tekuzman, Gülten

2013-06-01

Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) is a B cell lymphoma characterized by the presence of Reed-Sternberg cells. HL comprises 1% of all cancer cases and 14% of all lymphoma cases. We designed a retrospective study to investigate the clinical features and prognostic factors of HL patients diagnosed at an experienced oncology centre. Retrospective study. Demographic characteristics, histopathological and clinical features, treatment modalities and response to treatment were obtained from hospital records. Dates of initial diagnosis, remission and relapse, last visit and death were recorded for survival analyses. We analysed data of 391 HL patients (61% male, 39% female; mean age 35.7±15.1 years). The most common classical HL histological subtype was nodular sclerosing HL (NSHL) (42.7%). The most common stage was II 50.4%. The most common chemotherapy regimen was doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine and dacarbazine (ABVD) (70.6%). Five and 10-year survival rates were 90% and 84%, respectively. Early-stage patients with good prognostic factors had better overall and relapse-free survival rates. The presence of "B" symptoms, albumin level, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance score, and LDH were prognostic factors that affect the survival in both univariate and multivariate analyses. This is the first study that demonstrates the demographic, clinical and prognostic features of HL patients in Turkey, and provides a general picture of the HL patients in our country.

Stress Test in Detecting Heart Damage in Premenopausal Women With Stage I-III Breast Cancer

ClinicalTrials.gov

2018-04-26

Anatomic Stage I Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Anatomic Stage IA Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Anatomic Stage IB Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Anatomic Stage II Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Anatomic Stage IIA Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Anatomic Stage IIB Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Anatomic Stage III Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Anatomic Stage IIIA Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Anatomic Stage IIIB Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Anatomic Stage IIIC Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Premenopausal; Prognostic Stage I Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Prognostic Stage IA Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Prognostic Stage IB Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Prognostic Stage II Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Prognostic Stage IIA Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Prognostic Stage IIB Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Prognostic Stage III Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Prognostic Stage IIIA Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Prognostic Stage IIIB Breast Cancer AJCC v8; Prognostic Stage IIIC Breast Cancer AJCC v8

Psychosocial impact of prognostic genetic testing in the care of uveal melanoma patients: protocol of a controlled prospective clinical observational study.

PubMed

Erim, Yesim; Scheel, Jennifer; Breidenstein, Anja; Metz, Claudia Hd; Lohmann, Dietmar; Friederich, Hans-Christoph; Tagay, Sefik

2016-07-07

Uveal melanoma patients with a poor prognosis can be detected through genetic analysis of the tumor, which has a very high sensitivity. A large number of patients with uveal melanoma decide to receive information about their individual risk and therefore routine prognostic genetic testing is being carried out on a growing number of patients. It is obvious that a positive prediction for recidivism in the future will emotionally burden the respective patients, but research on the psychosocial impact of this innovative method is lacking. The aim of the current study is therefore to investigate the psychosocial impact (psychological distress and quality of life) of prognostic genetic testing in patients with uveal melanoma. This study is a non-randomized controlled prospective clinical observational trial. Subjects are patients with uveal melanoma, in whom genetic testing is possible. Patients who consent to genetic testing are allocated to the intervention group and patients who refuse genetic testing form the observational group. Both groups receive cancer therapy and psycho-oncological intervention when needed. The psychosocial impact of prognostic testing is investigated with the following variables: resilience, social support, fear of tumor progression, depression, general distress, cancer-specific and general health-related quality of life, attitude towards genetic testing, estimation of the perceived risk of metastasis, utilization and satisfaction with psycho-oncological crisis intervention, and sociodemographic data. Data are assessed preoperatively (at initial admission in the clinic) and postoperatively (at discharge from hospital after surgery, 6-12 weeks, 6 and 12 months after initial admission). Genetic test results are communicated 6-12 weeks after initial admission to the clinic. We created optimal conditions for investigation of the psychosocial impact of prognostic genetic testing. This study will provide information on the course of disease and psychosocial outcomes after prognostic genetic testing. We expect that empirical data from our study will give a scientific basis for medico-ethical considerations.

The role of steroid receptor coactivator-3 (SRC-3) in human malignant disease.

PubMed

Gojis, O; Rudraraju, B; Alifrangis, C; Krell, J; Libalova, P; Palmieri, C

2010-03-01

The p160 steroid receptor coactivator (SRC) family is critical to the transcriptional activation function of nuclear hormone receptors. A key member of this family is SRC-3, initially found to be amplified and expressed in breast cancer it has subsequent been shown to be expressed in malignant disease arising from a wide range of other organs. An understanding of the potential role of SRC-3 in the pathogenesis and its possible prognostic role in a broad range of tumours will improve our general understanding of carcinogenesis as well as potentially leading to a new prognostic marker as well as new therapeutic targets. Relevant papers were identified by searching the PubMed and MEDLINE databases for article published until 28th February 2009. Only articles published in English were considered. The search terms included "SRC-3", "AIB1" in association with the following terms: "human", "cancer" and "malignant disease". The search focused on malignant disease arising outside of the mammary gland. Full articles were obtained and references were checked for additional material when appropriate. SRC-3 is amplified and expressed in a wide spectrum of human malignant diseases and appears to be a potential prognostic marker in a number of different tumours. SRC-3 appears to be implicated in the possible risk of developing prostate and ovarian cancer. Its presence appears to be a marker of aggressive disease. Further research is required to determine its predictive and prognostic utility given the relative paucity of studies for each specific malignant disease. Copyright (c) 2009. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

High Numbers of Stromal Cancer-Associated Fibroblasts Are Associated With a Shorter Survival Time in Cats With Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma.

PubMed

Klobukowska, H J; Munday, J S

2016-11-01

Cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs) are fibroblastic cells that express α-smooth muscle actin and have been identified in the stroma of numerous epithelial tumors. The presence of CAFs within the tumor stroma has been associated with a poorer prognosis in some human cancers, including oral squamous cell carcinomas (SCCs). Cats frequently develop oral SCCs, and although these are generally highly aggressive neoplasms, there is currently a lack of prognostic markers for these tumors. The authors investigated the prognostic value of the presence of CAFs within the stroma of oral SCC biopsy specimens from 47 cats. In addition, several epidemiologic, clinical, and histologic variables were also assessed for prognostic significance. A CAF-positive stroma was identified in 35 of 47 SCCs (74.5%), and the median survival time (ST) of cats with CAF-positive SCCs (35 days) was significantly shorter than that of cats with CAF-negative SCCs (48.5 days) (P = .031). ST was also associated with the location of the primary tumor (P = .0018): the median ST for oropharyngeal SCCs (179 days) was significantly longer than for maxillary (43.5 days; P = .047), mandibular (42 days; P = .022), and sublingual SCCs (22.5 days; P = .0005). The median ST of sublingual SCCs was also shorter compared with maxillary SCCs (P = .0017). Furthermore, a significant association was identified between site and the presence of stromal CAFs (P = .025). On the basis of this retrospective study, evaluating the tumor stroma for CAFs in feline oral SCC biopsy specimens may be of potential prognostic value. © The Author(s) 2016.

Treatment, Outcome and Prognostic Factors in Renal Cell Carcinoma - A Single Center Study (2000-2010)

PubMed Central

Achermann, Christof; Stenner, Frank; Rothschild, Sacha I.

2016-01-01

In Switzerland efficient availability of novel drugs for renal cell cancer (RCC) has been granted early. Since the advent of the targeted agents for RCC the usage of these drugs has been reported to improve progression free survival. Here, we find that patients who are able to receive sequential targeted therapy, including tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) and mTOR inhibitors (mTORi), have a largely better outcome than those who have less exposure to these agents. The value of the prognostic scores developed by Motzer and Heng is fully reflected by the outcomes according to prognostic risk groups in our unselected patient cohort. Also, the use of surgical intervention appears to be an important prognostic factor, however with a somehow diminished effect by novel systemic therapies. The importance of multiple lines of targeted therapies is underlined by this retrospective analysis. For patients with metastatic RCC not receiving targeted therapy the median OS was 22.6 months compared to those with one TKI 25.4 months. Patients receiving a second-line therapy (median overall survival 27.6 months) and those patients with three or more lines of therapy (43.8 months) have the greatest benefit. Also, exposure to a mTORi improves survival versus non-exposure to mTORi (63.3 vs. 22.3 months, p=0.038). In conclusion a trend towards improved survival is confirmed for an unselected population when the full variety of therapeutic options is available and can be used for the individual patient. PMID:27313782

The predictive value of plasma biomarkers in discharged heart failure patients: role of plasma NT-proBNP.

PubMed

Leto, Laura; Testa, Marzia; Feola, Mauro

2016-04-01

Natriuretic peptides (NPs) have demonstrated their value to support clinical diagnosis of heart failure (HF); furthermore they are also studied for their prognostic role using them to guide appropriate management strategies. The present review gathers available evidence on prognostic role of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in patients hospitalized for acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). We searched Medline for English-language studies with the sequent key-words: "acute heart failure/acute decompensated heart failure", "NT-proBNP/N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide" and "prognosis/mortality/readmission". Almost 30 studies were included. NT-proBNP plasma levels at admission are strongly associated with all-cause short-term mortality (2-3 months), mid-term (6-11 months) or long- term mortality (more than one year) of follow-up. Regarding the prognostic power on cardiac death fewer data are available with uncertain results. NT-proBNP at discharge demonstrated its prognostic role for all-cause mortality at mid and long-term follow-up. The relation between NT-proBNP at discharge and cardiovascular mortality or composite end-point is under investigation. A decrease in NT-proBNP values during hospitalization provided prognostic prospects mainly for cardiovascular mortality and HF readmission. A 30% variation in NT-proBNP levels during in-hospital stay seemed to be an optimal cut-off for prognostic role. SNT-proBNP plasma levels proved to have a strong correlation with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, morbidity and composite outcomes in patients discharged after an ADHF. A better definition of the correct time of serial measurements and the cut-off values might be the challenge for the future investigations.

Major prognostic role of Ki67 in localized adrenocortical carcinoma after complete resection.

PubMed

Beuschlein, Felix; Weigel, Jens; Saeger, Wolfgang; Kroiss, Matthias; Wild, Vanessa; Daffara, Fulvia; Libé, Rosella; Ardito, Arianna; Al Ghuzlan, Abir; Quinkler, Marcus; Oßwald, Andrea; Ronchi, Cristina L; de Krijger, Ronald; Feelders, Richard A; Waldmann, Jens; Willenberg, Holger S; Deutschbein, Timo; Stell, Anthony; Reincke, Martin; Papotti, Mauro; Baudin, Eric; Tissier, Frédérique; Haak, Harm R; Loli, Paola; Terzolo, Massimo; Allolio, Bruno; Müller, Hans-Helge; Fassnacht, Martin

2015-03-01

Recurrence of adrenocortical carcinoma (ACC) even after complete (R0) resection occurs frequently. The aim of this study was to identify markers with prognostic value for patients in this clinical setting. From the German ACC registry, 319 patients with the European Network for the Study of Adrenal Tumors stage I-III were identified. As an independent validation cohort, 250 patients from three European countries were included. Clinical, histological, and immunohistochemical markers were correlated with recurrence-free (RFS) and overall survival (OS). Although univariable analysis within the German cohort suggested several factors with potential prognostic power, upon multivariable adjustment only a few including age, tumor size, venous tumor thrombus (VTT), and the proliferation marker Ki67 retained significance. Among these, Ki67 provided the single best prognostic value for RFS (hazard ratio [HR] for recurrence, 1.042 per 1% increase; P < .0001) and OS (HR for death, 1.051; P < .0001) which was confirmed in the validation cohort. Accordingly, clinical outcome differed significantly between patients with Ki67 <10%, 10-19%, and ≥20% (for the German cohort: median RFS, 53.2 vs 31.6 vs 9.4 mo; median OS, 180.5 vs 113.5 vs 42.0 mo). Using the combined cohort prognostic scores including tumor size, VTT, and Ki67 were established. Although these scores discriminated slightly better between subgroups, there was no clinically meaningful advantage in comparison with Ki67 alone. This largest study on prognostic markers in localized ACC identified Ki67 as the single most important factor predicting recurrence in patients following R0 resection. Thus, evaluation of Ki67 indices should be introduced as standard grading in all pathology reports of patients with ACC.

Serum Prognostic Biomarkers in Head and Neck Cancer Patients

PubMed Central

Lin, Ho-Sheng; Siddiq, Fauzia; Talwar, Harvinder S.; Chen, Wei; Voichita, Calin; Draghici, Sorin; Jeyapalan, Gerald; Chatterjee, Madhumita; Fribley, Andrew; Yoo, George H.; Sethi, Seema; Kim, Harold; Sukari, Ammar; Folbe, Adam J.; Tainsky, Michael A.

2014-01-01

Objectives/Hypothesis A reliable estimate of survival is important as it may impact treatment choice. The objective of this study is to identify serum autoantibody biomarkers that can be used to improve prognostication for patients affected with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC). Study Design Prospective cohort study. Methods A panel of 130 serum biomarkers, previously selected for cancer detection using microarray-based serological profiling and specialized bioinformatics, were evaluated for their potential as prognostic biomarkers in a cohort of 119 HNSCC patients followed for up to 12.7 years. A biomarker was considered positive if its reactivity to the particular patient’s serum was greater than one standard deviation above the mean reactivity to sera from the other 118 patients, using a leave-one-out cross-validation model. Survival curves were estimated according to the Kaplan-Meier method, and statistically significant differences in survival were examined using the log rank test. Independent prognostic biomarkers were identified following analysis using multivariate Cox proportional hazards models. Results Poor overall survival was associated with African Americans (hazard ratio [HR] for death =2.61; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.58–4.33; P =.000), advanced stage (HR =2.79; 95% CI: 1.40–5.57; P =.004), and recurrent disease (HR =6.66; 95% CI: 2.54–17.44; P =.000). On multivariable Cox analysis adjusted for covariates (race and stage), six of the 130 markers evaluated were found to be independent prognosticators of overall survival. Conclusions The results shown here are promising and demonstrate the potential use of serum biomarkers for prognostication in HNSCC patients. Further clinical trials to include larger samples of patients across multiple centers may be warranted. PMID:24347532

Clinical Features and Prognostic Factors of Hodgkin’s Lymphoma: A Single Center Experience

PubMed Central

Kılıçkap, Saadettin; Barışta, İbrahim; Ülger, Şükran; Çelik, İsmail; Selek, Uğur; Yıldız, Ferah; Kars, Ayşe; Özışık, Yavuz; Tekuzman, Gülten

2013-01-01

Background: Hodgkin’s lymphoma (HL) is a B cell lymphoma characterized by the presence of Reed-Sternberg cells. HL comprises 1% of all cancer cases and 14% of all lymphoma cases. Aims: We designed a retrospective study to investigate the clinical features and prognostic factors of HL patients diagnosed at an experienced oncology centre. Study Design: Retrospective study. Methods: Demographic characteristics, histopathological and clinical features, treatment modalities and response to treatment were obtained from hospital records. Dates of initial diagnosis, remission and relapse, last visit and death were recorded for survival analyses. Results: We analysed data of 391 HL patients (61% male, 39% female; mean age 35.7±15.1 years). The most common classical HL histological subtype was nodular sclerosing HL (NSHL) (42.7%). The most common stage was II 50.4%. The most common chemotherapy regimen was doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine and dacarbazine (ABVD) (70.6%). Five and 10-year survival rates were 90% and 84%, respectively. Early-stage patients with good prognostic factors had better overall and relapse-free survival rates. The presence of “B” symptoms, albumin level, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) performance score, and LDH were prognostic factors that affect the survival in both univariate and multivariate analyses. Conclusion: This is the first study that demonstrates the demographic, clinical and prognostic features of HL patients in Turkey, and provides a general picture of the HL patients in our country. PMID:25207097

From High-Throughput Microarray-Based Screening to Clinical Application: The Development of a Second Generation Multigene Test for Breast Cancer Prognosis

PubMed Central

Brase, Jan C.; Kronenwett, Ralf; Petry, Christoph; Denkert, Carsten; Schmidt, Marcus

2013-01-01

Several multigene tests have been developed for breast cancer patients to predict the individual risk of recurrence. Most of the first generation tests rely on proliferation-associated genes and are commonly carried out in central reference laboratories. Here, we describe the development of a second generation multigene assay, the EndoPredict test, a prognostic multigene expression test for estrogen receptor (ER) positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2) negative (ER+/HER2−) breast cancer patients. The EndoPredict gene signature was initially established in a large high-throughput microarray-based screening study. The key steps for biomarker identification are discussed in detail, in comparison to the establishment of other multigene signatures. After biomarker selection, genes and algorithms were transferred to a diagnostic platform (reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR)) to allow for assaying formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples. A comprehensive analytical validation was performed and a prospective proficiency testing study with seven pathological laboratories finally proved that EndoPredict can be reliably used in the decentralized setting. Three independent large clinical validation studies (n = 2,257) demonstrated that EndoPredict offers independent prognostic information beyond current clinicopathological parameters and clinical guidelines. The review article summarizes several important steps that should be considered for the development process of a second generation multigene test and offers a means for transferring a microarray signature from the research laboratory to clinical practice. PMID:27605191

State Space Formulation of Nonlinear Vibration Responses Collected from a Dynamic Rotor-Bearing System: An Extension of Bearing Diagnostics to Bearing Prognostics

PubMed Central

Tse, Peter W.; Wang, Dong

2017-01-01

Bearings are widely used in various industries to support rotating shafts. Their failures accelerate failures of other adjacent components and may cause unexpected machine breakdowns. In recent years, nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system have been widely analyzed for bearing diagnostics. Numerous methods have been proposed to identify different bearing faults. However, these methods are unable to predict the future health conditions of bearings. To extend bearing diagnostics to bearing prognostics, this paper reports the design of a state space formulation of nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system in order to intelligently predict bearing remaining useful life (RUL). Firstly, analyses of nonlinear vibration responses were conducted to construct a bearing health indicator (BHI) so as to assess the current bearing health condition. Secondly, a state space model of the BHI was developed to mathematically track the health evolution of the BHI. Thirdly, unscented particle filtering was used to predict bearing RUL. Lastly, a new bearing acceleration life testing setup was designed to collect natural bearing degradation data, which were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed bearing prognostic method. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed bearing prognostic method is promising and the proposed bearing prognostic method is able to reflect future bearing health conditions. PMID:28216586

State Space Formulation of Nonlinear Vibration Responses Collected from a Dynamic Rotor-Bearing System: An Extension of Bearing Diagnostics to Bearing Prognostics.

PubMed

Tse, Peter W; Wang, Dong

2017-02-14

Bearings are widely used in various industries to support rotating shafts. Their failures accelerate failures of other adjacent components and may cause unexpected machine breakdowns. In recent years, nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system have been widely analyzed for bearing diagnostics. Numerous methods have been proposed to identify different bearing faults. However, these methods are unable to predict the future health conditions of bearings. To extend bearing diagnostics to bearing prognostics, this paper reports the design of a state space formulation of nonlinear vibration responses collected from a dynamic rotor-bearing system in order to intelligently predict bearing remaining useful life (RUL). Firstly, analyses of nonlinear vibration responses were conducted to construct a bearing health indicator (BHI) so as to assess the current bearing health condition. Secondly, a state space model of the BHI was developed to mathematically track the health evolution of the BHI. Thirdly, unscented particle filtering was used to predict bearing RUL. Lastly, a new bearing acceleration life testing setup was designed to collect natural bearing degradation data, which were used to validate the effectiveness of the proposed bearing prognostic method. Results show that the prediction accuracy of the proposed bearing prognostic method is promising and the proposed bearing prognostic method is able to reflect future bearing health conditions.

Prognostic modelling options for remaining useful life estimation by industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sikorska, J. Z.; Hodkiewicz, M.; Ma, L.

2011-07-01

Over recent years a significant amount of research has been undertaken to develop prognostic models that can be used to predict the remaining useful life of engineering assets. Implementations by industry have only had limited success. By design, models are subject to specific assumptions and approximations, some of which are mathematical, while others relate to practical implementation issues such as the amount of data required to validate and verify a proposed model. Therefore, appropriate model selection for successful practical implementation requires not only a mathematical understanding of each model type, but also an appreciation of how a particular business intends to utilise a model and its outputs. This paper discusses business issues that need to be considered when selecting an appropriate modelling approach for trial. It also presents classification tables and process flow diagrams to assist industry and research personnel select appropriate prognostic models for predicting the remaining useful life of engineering assets within their specific business environment. The paper then explores the strengths and weaknesses of the main prognostics model classes to establish what makes them better suited to certain applications than to others and summarises how each have been applied to engineering prognostics. Consequently, this paper should provide a starting point for young researchers first considering options for remaining useful life prediction. The models described in this paper are Knowledge-based (expert and fuzzy), Life expectancy (stochastic and statistical), Artificial Neural Networks, and Physical models.

SubID, a non-median dichotomization tool for heterogeneous populations, reveals the pan-cancer significance of INPP4B and its regulation by EVI1 in AML.

PubMed

Dzneladze, Irakli; Woolley, John F; Rossell, Carla; Han, Youqi; Rashid, Ayesha; Jain, Michael; Reimand, Jüri; Minden, Mark D; Salmena, Leonardo

2018-01-01

Our previous studies demonstrated that INPP4B, a member of the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway, is overexpressed in a subset of AML patients and is associated with lower response to chemotherapy and shorter survival. INPP4B expression analysis in AML revealed a right skewed frequency distribution with 25% of patients expressing significantly higher levels than the majority. The 75% low/25% high cut-off revealed the prognostic power of INPP4B expression status in AML, which would not have been apparent with a standard median cut-off approach. Our identification of a clinically relevant non-median cut-off for INPP4B indicated a need for a generalizable non-median dichotomization approach to optimally study clinically relevant genes. To address this need, we developed Subgroup Identifier (SubID), a tool which examines the relationship between a continuous variable (e.g. gene expression), and a test parameter (e.g. CoxPH or Fisher's exact P values). In our study, Fisher's exact SubID was used to reveal EVI1 as a transcriptional regulator of INPP4B in AML; a finding which was validated in vitro. Next, we used CoxPH SubID to conduct a pan-cancer analysis of INPP4B's prognostic significance. Our analysis revealed that INPP4Blow is associated with shorter survival in kidney clear cell, liver hepatocellular, and bladder urothelial carcinomas. Conversely, INPP4Blow was shown to be associated with increased survival in pancreatic adenocarcinoma in three independent datasets. Overall, our study describes the development and application of a novel subgroup identification tool used to identify prognostically significant rare subgroups based upon gene expression, and for investigating the association between a gene with skewed frequency distribution and potentially important upstream and downstream genes that relate to the index gene.

SubID, a non-median dichotomization tool for heterogeneous populations, reveals the pan-cancer significance of INPP4B and its regulation by EVI1 in AML

PubMed Central

Han, Youqi; Rashid, Ayesha; Jain, Michael; Reimand, Jüri; Minden, Mark D.; Salmena, Leonardo

2018-01-01

Our previous studies demonstrated that INPP4B, a member of the PI3K/Akt signaling pathway, is overexpressed in a subset of AML patients and is associated with lower response to chemotherapy and shorter survival. INPP4B expression analysis in AML revealed a right skewed frequency distribution with 25% of patients expressing significantly higher levels than the majority. The 75% low/25% high cut-off revealed the prognostic power of INPP4B expression status in AML, which would not have been apparent with a standard median cut-off approach. Our identification of a clinically relevant non-median cut-off for INPP4B indicated a need for a generalizable non-median dichotomization approach to optimally study clinically relevant genes. To address this need, we developed Subgroup Identifier (SubID), a tool which examines the relationship between a continuous variable (e.g. gene expression), and a test parameter (e.g. CoxPH or Fisher’s exact P values). In our study, Fisher’s exact SubID was used to reveal EVI1 as a transcriptional regulator of INPP4B in AML; a finding which was validated in vitro. Next, we used CoxPH SubID to conduct a pan-cancer analysis of INPP4B’s prognostic significance. Our analysis revealed that INPP4Blow is associated with shorter survival in kidney clear cell, liver hepatocellular, and bladder urothelial carcinomas. Conversely, INPP4Blow was shown to be associated with increased survival in pancreatic adenocarcinoma in three independent datasets. Overall, our study describes the development and application of a novel subgroup identification tool used to identify prognostically significant rare subgroups based upon gene expression, and for investigating the association between a gene with skewed frequency distribution and potentially important upstream and downstream genes that relate to the index gene. PMID:29415082

Prognostic significance of B7-H4 expression in matched primary pancreatic cancer and liver metastases.

PubMed

Qian, Yun; Sang, Yiwen; Wang, Frederick X C; Hong, Bo; Wang, Qi; Zhou, Xinhui; Weng, Tianhao; Wu, Zhigang; Zheng, Min; Zhang, Hong; Yao, Hangping

2016-11-01

Liver metastasis development in pancreatic cancer patients is common and confers a poor prognosis. Clinical relevance of biomarker analysis in metastatic tissue is necessary. B7-H4 has an inhibitory effect on T cell mediated response and may be involved in tumor development. Although B7-H4 expression has been detected in pancreatic cancer, its expression in liver metastases from pancreatic cancer is still unknown. In this study, overall 43 pancreatic cancer liver metastases (with matched primaries in 15/43 cases) and 57 pancreatic cancer cases without liver metastases or other distant metastases were analyzed for their expression of B7-H4 by immunohistochemistry. Survival curves and log-rank tests were used to test the association of B7-H4 expression with survival. B7-H4 was highly expressed in 28 (65.1%) of the 43 liver metastases and 9 (60.0%) of the 15 matched primary tumors. The expression of B7-H4 in liver metastases was significantly higher than in the matched primary tumors (p < 0.05). Patients with high B7-H4 expression in their primary pancreatic cancer had higher risk of developing liver metastases (p < 0.05). In univariate analysis, B7-H4 expression was significantly associated with the risk of death (p < 0.05). And the multivariate analysis identified that B7-H4 was an independent prognostic indicator (p < 0.05). Our results revealed B7-H4 to be associated with poor prognosis in patients with pancreatic cancer liver metastasis. B7-H4 may promote pancreatic cancer metastasis and was promising to be a potential prognostic indicator of pancreatic cancer.

Development and validation of a prognostic nomogram for terminally ill cancer patients.

PubMed

Feliu, Jaime; Jiménez-Gordo, Ana María; Madero, Rosario; Rodríguez-Aizcorbe, José Ramón; Espinosa, Enrique; Castro, Javier; Acedo, Jesús Domingo; Martínez, Beatriz; Alonso-Babarro, Alberto; Molina, Raquel; Cámara, Juan Carlos; García-Paredes, María Luisa; González-Barón, Manuel

2011-11-02

Determining life expectancy in terminally ill cancer patients is a difficult task. We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the length of survival in patients with terminal disease. From February 1, 2003, to December 31, 2005, 406 consecutive terminally ill patients were entered into the study. We analyzed 38 features prognostic of life expectancy among terminally ill patients by multivariable Cox regression and identified the most accurate and parsimonious model by backward variable elimination according to the Akaike information criterion. Five clinical and laboratory variables were built into a nomogram to estimate the probability of patient survival at 15, 30, and 60 days. We validated and calibrated the nomogram with an external validation cohort of 474 patients who were treated from June 1, 2006, through December 31, 2007. The median overall survival was 29.1 days for the training set and 18.3 days for the validation set. Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, lactate dehydrogenase levels, lymphocyte levels, albumin levels, and time from initial diagnosis to diagnosis of terminal disease were retained in the multivariable Cox proportional hazards model as independent prognostic factors of survival and formed the basis of the nomogram. The nomogram had high predictive performance, with a bootstrapped corrected concordance index of 0.70, and it showed good calibration. External independent validation revealed 68% predictive accuracy. We developed a highly accurate tool that uses basic clinical and analytical information to predict the probability of survival at 15, 30, and 60 days in terminally ill cancer patients. This tool can help physicians making decisions on clinical care at the end of life.

A Prognostic Model for One-year Mortality in Patients Requiring Prolonged Mechanical Ventilation

PubMed Central

Carson, Shannon S.; Garrett, Joanne; Hanson, Laura C.; Lanier, Joyce; Govert, Joe; Brake, Mary C.; Landucci, Dante L.; Cox, Christopher E.; Carey, Timothy S.

2009-01-01

Objective A measure that identifies patients who are at high risk of mortality after prolonged ventilation will help physicians communicate prognosis to patients or surrogate decision-makers. Our objective was to develop and validate a prognostic model for 1-year mortality in patients ventilated for 21 days or more. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting University-based tertiary care hospital Patients 300 consecutive medical, surgical, and trauma patients requiring mechanical ventilation for at least 21 days were prospectively enrolled. Measurements and Main Results Predictive variables were measured on day 21 of ventilation for the first 200 patients and entered into logistic regression models with 1-year and 3-month mortality as outcomes. Final models were validated using data from 100 subsequent patients. One-year mortality was 51% in the development set and 58% in the validation set. Independent predictors of mortality included requirement for vasopressors, hemodialysis, platelet count ≤150 ×109/L, and age ≥50. Areas under the ROC curve for the development model and validation model were 0.82 (se 0.03) and 0.82 (se 0.05) respectively. The model had sensitivity of 0.42 (se 0.12) and specificity of 0.99 (se 0.01) for identifying patients who had ≥90% risk of death at 1 year. Observed mortality was highly consistent with both 3- and 12-month predicted mortality. These four predictive variables can be used in a simple prognostic score that clearly identifies low risk patients (no risk factors, 15% mortality) and high risk patients (3 or 4 risk factors, 97% mortality). Conclusions Simple clinical variables measured on day 21 of mechanical ventilation can identify patients at highest and lowest risk of death from prolonged ventilation. PMID:18552692

Prognostic implications of epicardial fat volume quantification in acute pericarditis.

PubMed

Lazaros, George; Antonopoulos, Alexios S; Oikonomou, Evangelos K; Vasileiou, Panagiotis; Oikonomou, Evangelos; Stroumpouli, Evangelia; Karavidas, Apostolos; Antoniades, Charalambos; Tousoulis, Dimitris

2017-02-01

The pathophysiology of acute pericarditis remains largely unknown, and biomarkers are needed to identify patients susceptible to complications. As adipose tissue has a pivotal role in cardiovascular disease pathogenesis, we hypothesized that quantification of epicardial fat volume (EFV) provides prognostic information in patients with acute pericarditis. Fifty (n = 50) patients with first diagnosis of acute pericarditis were enrolled in this study. Patients underwent a cardiac computerized tomography (CT) scan to quantify EFV on a dedicated workstation. Patients were followed up in hospital for atrial fibrillation (AF) development and up to 18 months for the composite clinical endpoint of development of constrictive, recurrent or incessant pericarditis or poor response to nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs. Patients presenting with chest pain had lower EFV vs. patients without chest pain (167·2 ± 21·7 vs. 105·1 ± 11·1 cm 3 , respectively, P < 0·01); EFV (but not body mass index) was strongly positively correlated with pericardial effusion size (r = 0·395, P = 0·007) and associated with in-hospital AF. At follow-up, patients that reached the composite clinical endpoint had lower EFV (P < 0·05). After adjustment for age, EFV was associated with lower odds ratio for the composite clinical endpoint point of poor response to NSAIDs or the development of constrictive, recurrent or incessant pericarditis during follow-up (per 20 cm 3 increase in EFV: OR = 0·802 [0·656-0·981], P < 0·05). We report for the first time a significant association of EFV with the clinical features and the outcome of patients with acute pericarditis. Measurement of EFV by CT may have important prognostic implications in these patients. © 2016 Stichting European Society for Clinical Investigation Journal Foundation.

Prognostic significance of serum lactate dehydrogenase levels in Ewing's sarcoma: A meta-analysis.

PubMed

Li, Suoyuan; Yang, Qing; Wang, Hongsheng; Wang, Zhuoying; Zuo, Dongqing; Cai, Zhengdong; Hua, Yingqi

2016-12-01

A number of studies have investigated the role of serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels in patients with Ewing's sarcoma, although these have yielded inconsistent and inconclusive results. Therefore, the present study aimed to systematically review the published studies and conduct a meta-analysis to assess its prognostic value more precisely. Cohort studies assessing the prognostic role of LDH levels in patients with Ewing's sarcoma were included. A pooled hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of overall survival (OS) or 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) was used to assess the prognostic role of the levels of serum LDH. Nine studies published between 1980 and 2014, with a total of 1,412 patients with Ewing's sarcoma, were included. Six studies, with a total of 644 patients, used OS as the primary endpoint and four studies, with 795 patients, used 5-year DFS. Overall, the pooled HR evaluating high LDH levels was 2.90 (95% CI: 2.09-4.04) for OS and 2.40 (95% CI: 1.93-2.98) for 5-year DFS. This meta-analysis demonstrates that high levels of serum LDH are associated with lower OS and 5-year DFS rates in patients with Ewing's sarcoma. Therefore, serum LDH levels are an effective biomarker of Ewing's sarcoma prognosis.

An inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score system in patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma in rituximab era.

PubMed

Sun, Feifei; Zhu, Jia; Lu, Suying; Zhen, Zijun; Wang, Juan; Huang, Junting; Ding, Zonghui; Zeng, Musheng; Sun, Xiaofei

2018-01-02

Systemic inflammatory parameters are associated with poor outcomes in malignant patients. Several inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score systems were established for various solid tumors. However, there is few inflammation based cumulative prognostic score system for patients with diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL). We retrospectively reviewed 564 adult DLBCL patients who had received rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine and prednisolone (R-CHOP) therapy between Nov 1 2006 and Dec 30 2013 and assessed the prognostic significance of six systemic inflammatory parameters evaluated in previous studies by univariate and multivariate analysis:C-reactive protein(CRP), albumin levels, the lymphocyte-monocyte ratio (LMR), the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio(NLR), the platelet-lymphocyte ratio(PLR)and fibrinogen levels. Multivariate analysis identified CRP, albumin levels and the LMR are three independent prognostic parameters for overall survival (OS). Based on these three factors, we constructed a novel inflammation-based cumulative prognostic score (ICPS) system. Four risk groups were formed: group ICPS = 0, ICPS = 1, ICPS = 2 and ICPS = 3. Advanced multivariate analysis indicated that the ICPS model is a prognostic score system independent of International Prognostic Index (IPI) for both progression-free survival (PFS) (p < 0.001) and OS (p < 0.001). The 3-year OS for patients with ICPS =0, ICPS =1, ICPS =2 and ICPS =3 were 95.6, 88.2, 76.0 and 62.2%, respectively (p < 0.001). The 3-year PFS for patients with ICPS = 0-1, ICPS = 2 and ICPS = 3 were 84.8, 71.6 and 54.5%, respectively (p < 0.001). The prognostic value of the ICPS model indicated that the degree of systemic inflammatory status was associated with clinical outcomes of patients with DLBCL in rituximab era. The ICPS model was shown to classify risk groups more accurately than any single inflammatory prognostic parameters. These findings may be useful for identifying candidates for further inflammation-related mechanism research or novel anti-inflammation target therapies.

The role of fear avoidance beliefs as a prognostic factor for outcome in patients with nonspecific low back pain: a systematic review.

PubMed

Wertli, Maria M; Rasmussen-Barr, Eva; Weiser, Sherri; Bachmann, Lucas M; Brunner, Florian

2014-05-01

Psychological factors including fear avoidance beliefs are believed to influence the development of chronic low back pain (LBP). The purpose of this study was to determine the prognostic importance of fear avoidance beliefs as assessed by the Fear Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire (FABQ) and the Tampa Scale of Kinesiophobia for clinically relevant outcomes in patients with nonspecific LBP. The design of this study was a systematic review. In October 2011, the following databases were searched: BIOSIS, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Embase, OTSeeker, PeDRO, PsycInfo, PubMed/Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science. To ensure the completeness of the search, a hand search and a search of bibliographies was conducted and all relevant references included. A total of 2,031 references were retrieved, leaving 566 references after the removal of duplicates. For 53 references, the full-text was assessed and, finally, 21 studies were included in the analysis. The most convincing evidence was found supporting fear avoidance beliefs to be a prognostic factor for work-related outcomes in patients with subacute LBP (ie, 4 weeks-3 months of LBP). Four cohort studies, conducted by disability insurance companies in the United States, Canada, and Belgium, included 258 to 1,068 patients mostly with nonspecific LBP. These researchers found an increased risk for work-related outcomes (not returning to work, sick days) with elevated FABQ scores. The odds ratio (OR) ranged from 1.05 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.02-1.09) to 4.64 (95% CI, 1.57-13.71). The highest OR was found when applying a high cutoff for FABQ Work subscale scores. This may indicate that the use of cutoff values increases the likelihood of positive findings. This issue requires further study. Fear avoidance beliefs in very acute LBP (<2 weeks) and chronic LBP (>3 months) was mostly not predictive. Evidence suggests that fear avoidance beliefs are prognostic for poor outcome in subacute LBP, and thus early treatment, including interventions to reduce fear avoidance beliefs, may avoid delayed recovery and chronicity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Disruption of basement membrane, extracellular matrix metalloproteinases and E-cadherin in renal-cell carcinoma.

PubMed

Morell-Quadreny, L; Rubio, Jose; Lopez-Guerrero, Jose Antonio; Casanova, Juan; Ramos, D; Iborra, Inmaculada; Solsona, Eduardo; Llombart-Bosch, A

2003-01-01

A retrospective study was performed to determine the prognostic value of Basement Membrane (BM) integrity, Matrix Metalloproteinases (MMPs) and E-Cadherin expression in renal cell carcinoma (RCC). An immunohistochemical study on laminin and collagen IV, MMPs 1 and 2, and E-Cadherin was carried out on 71 RCCs. BM fragmentation was considered taking 75% as a cut-off. MMP 1 and MMP2 immunostaining, as well as E-Cadherin was considered taking 25% as a cut-off. An inverse relationship was seen between E-Cadherin with laminin, collagen IV and MMPs. More than 75% loss of laminin, collagen IV and E-Cadherin, as well as higher expression of MMPs, were associated with symptoms, tumoral size and worse grade. Loss of collagen IV and E-Cadherin were of prognostic value. Both BM and E-Cadherin are good prognostic markers. MMPs patterns show a relationship between BM proteins and E-Cadherin, but evaluation is more time-consuming and provide no better prognostication; consequently they are not useful in routine clinical applications.