Managing the Challenges of Leadership in ERP Implementations: An Exploratory Study of the Leadership Challenges Encountered by Project Managers Involved in ERP Implementation Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wanjagi, James K.

2013-01-01

Increasingly, organizations are conducting more Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) projects in order to promote organizational efficiencies. Meanwhile, minimal research has been conducted on the leadership challenges faced by project managers during the ERP project implementations and how these challenges are managed. The existing project…

Response of an Alpine Tundra in the Southern Rocky Mountains to Climate Change by 2100: Projections of Water, Carbon, and Nitrogen Cycling under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dong, Z.; Driscoll, C. T.; Hayhoe, K.; Pourmokhtarian, A.; Stoner, A. M. K.

2016-12-01

Biogeochemical cycling of water, carbon, and nitrogen in alpine tundra ecosystems are closely related to the water and nutrient supply and ecosystem function of watersheds. While studies on the response of alpine tundra to climate change have largely focused on ecosystem structure, research on response of ecosystem function and element cycling are less well established. Using downscaled future climate scenarios under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) and revised algorithm of the ecosystem model, PnET-BGC, we investigated water, carbon, and nitrogen cycling of an alpine tundra ecosystem under different projections of future climate change at Saddle site of Niwot Ridge, Colorado. Simulations from this study suggest that future water supply from the alpine tundra was well predicted by the Budyko curve, which contrasts with findings from several previous studies. Although foliar display is projected to decrease due to summer water stress, an extend growing season and increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations reverse its effects on carbon fixation by allowing longer period of photosynthesis and greater photosynthetic rate per leaf area. As a result of the increasing carbon sequestration, large increases in carbon storage are projected in living and dead biomass. Decomposition of soil organic carbon and mineralization of soil organic nitrogen increase with temperature and soil moisture, but also related to the period of snow cover which likely enhances microbial activity and associated soil decomposition and N immobilization. Future increase in winter precipitation leads to increasing snow water content which increases spring soil moisture and decomposition. Shorter future snow cover period and decreased summer soil moisture caused lower decomposition in both seasons, therefore negligible long-term pattern is projected. Future net N mineralization generally followed the pattern of organic carbon decomposition, but slightly increased because of decreasing winter immobilization due to projected shorter snow cover period. Nitrogen uptake is projected to be higher under radiative forcing scenarios of higher primary production and greater net N mineralization.

Uncertainties Associated with Quantifying Climate Change Impacts on Human Health: A Case Study for Diarrhea

PubMed Central

Kolstad, Erik W.; Johansson, Kjell Arne

2011-01-01

Background Climate change is expected to have large impacts on health at low latitudes where droughts and malnutrition, diarrhea, and malaria are projected to increase. Objectives The main objective of this study was to indicate a method to assess a range of plausible health impacts of climate change while handling uncertainties in a unambiguous manner. We illustrate this method by quantifying the impacts of projected regional warming on diarrhea in this century. Methods We combined a range of linear regression coefficients to compute projections of future climate change-induced increases in diarrhea using the results from five empirical studies and a 19-member climate model ensemble for which future greenhouse gas emissions were prescribed. Six geographical regions were analyzed. Results The model ensemble projected temperature increases of up to 4°C over land in the tropics and subtropics by the end of this century. The associated mean projected increases of relative risk of diarrhea in the six study regions were 8–11% (with SDs of 3–5%) by 2010–2039 and 22–29% (SDs of 9–12%) by 2070–2099. Conclusions Even our most conservative estimates indicate substantial impacts from climate change on the incidence of diarrhea. Nevertheless, our main conclusion is that large uncertainties are associated with future projections of diarrhea and climate change. We believe that these uncertainties can be attributed primarily to the sparsity of empirical climate–health data. Our results therefore highlight the need for empirical data in the cross section between climate and human health. PMID:20929684

The Perspectives of Elementary Teachers Regarding the Integration of the JASON Project into the Science Curriculum

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

George, Belinda Chantelle Richardson

2015-01-01

This phenomenological narrative study was to explore nine elementary teachers' perspectives of the integration of the JASON Project virtual field trip into the science curriculum. Study findings indicated that the teachers saw an increase in student participation when implementing the JASON Project virtual field trip. The most significant findings…

Research on Risk Manage of Power Construction Project Based on Bayesian Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jia, Zhengyuan; Fan, Zhou; Li, Yong

With China's changing economic structure and increasingly fierce competition in the market, the uncertainty and risk factors in the projects of electric power construction are increasingly complex, the projects will face huge risks or even fail if we don't consider or ignore these risk factors. Therefore, risk management in the projects of electric power construction plays an important role. The paper emphatically elaborated the influence of cost risk in electric power projects through study overall risk management and the behavior of individual in risk management, and introduced the Bayesian network to the project risk management. The paper obtained the order of key factors according to both scene analysis and causal analysis for effective risk management.

Synthesis of port related freight improvement studies : technical report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-10-01

This project was undertaken to assist in identifying landside transportation projects that will better position : the state of Texas to benefit from the expansion of the Panama Canal through increases in exports and : imports. Studies and plans over ...

The effects of topic choice in project-based instruction on undergraduate physical science students' interest, ownership, and motivation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milner-Bolotin, Marina

2001-07-01

Motivating nonscience majors in science and mathematics studies became one of the most interesting and important challenges in contemporary science and mathematics education. Therefore, designing and studying a learning environment, which enhances students' motivation, is an important task. This experimental study sought to explore the implications of student autonomy in topic choice in a project-based Physical Science Course for nonscience majors' on students' motivational orientation. It also suggested and tested a model explaining motivational outcomes of project-based learning environment through increased student ownership of science projects. A project, How Things Work, was designed and implemented in this study. The focus of the project was application of physical science concepts learned in the classroom to everyday life situations. Participants of the study (N = 59) were students enrolled in three selected sections of a Physical Science Course, designed to fulfill science requirements for nonscience majors. These sections were taught by the same instructor over a period of an entire 16-week semester at a large public research university. The study focused on four main variables: student autonomy in choosing a project topic, their motivational orientation, student ownership of the project, and the interest in the project topic. Achievement Goal Orientation theory became the theoretical framework for the study. Student motivational orientation, defined as mastery or performance goal orientation, was measured by an Achievement Goal Orientation Questionnaire. Student ownership was measured using an original instrument, Ownership Measurement Questionnaire, designed and tested by the researchers. Repeated measures yoked design, ANOVA, ANCOVA, and multivariate regression analysis were implemented in the study. Qualitative analysis was used to complement and verify quantitative results. It has been found that student autonomy in the project choice did not make a significant impact on their motivational orientation, while their initial interest in the project topic did. The latter was found to be related to students' ownership of the project, which was found to lead to improved mastery goal orientation. These findings indicate that incorporating project-based learning in science teaching may lead to increased student mastery goal orientation, and may result in improved science learning.

Concept Identification Strategies. Research Project Number 3 of Project Head Start Research and Evaluation Center, Syracuse University Research Institute, November 1, 1967.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meyer, William J.; Hultsch, David

The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of age differences and differences in memory load on concept identification (CI) tasks of varying levels of complexity. Previous studies with young children found increasingly better performance on CI tasks with increasing age. This was in part due to the fact that older subjects categorize…

Do transportation subsidies and living allowances improve tuberculosis control outcomes among internal migrants in urban Shanghai, China?

PubMed

Lu, Hui; Yan, Fei; Wang, Wei; Wu, Laiwa; Ma, Weiping; Chen, Jing; Shen, Xin; Mei, Jian

2013-01-01

Tuberculosis (TB) in internal migrants is one of three threats for TB control in China. To address this threat, a project was launched in eight of the 19 districts of Shanghai in 2007 to provide transportation subsidies and living allowances for all migrant TB cases. This study aims to determine if this project contributed to improved TB control outcomes among migrants in urban Shanghai. This was a community intervention study. The data were derived from the TB Management Information System in three project districts and three non-project districts in Shanghai between 2006 and 2010. The impact of the project was estimated in a difference-in-difference (DID) analysis framework, and a multivariable binary logistic regression analysis. A total of 1872 pulmonary TB (PTB) cases in internal migrants were included in the study. The treatment success rate (TSR) for migrant smear-positive cases in project districts increased from 59.9% in 2006 to 87.6% in 2010 (P < 0.001). The crude DID improvement of TSR was 18.9%. There was an increased probability of TSR in the project group before and after the project intervention period (coefficient = 1.156, odds ratio = 3.178, 95% confidence interval: 1.305-7.736, P = 0.011). The study showed the project could improve treatment success in migrant PTB cases. This was a short-term programme using special financial subsidies for all migrant PTB cases. It is recommended that project funds be continuously invested by governments with particular focus on the more vulnerable PTB cases among migrants.

"Project ACTS": An Intervention to Increase Organ and Tissue Donation Intentions among African Americans

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Arriola, Kimberly; Robinson, Dana H.; Thompson, Nancy J.; Perryman, Jennie P.

2010-01-01

This study sought to evaluate the effectiveness of "Project ACTS: About Choices in Transplantation and Sharing," which was developed to increase readiness for organ and tissue donation among African American adults. Nine churches (N = 425 participants) were randomly assigned to receive donation education materials currently available to consumers…

76 FR 53641 - Tetraconazole; Pesticide Tolerances

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-29

... fuzzy kiwifruit, subgroup 13-07F. The Interregional Research Project Number 4 (IR-4) requested these... Interregional Research Project Number 4 (IR-4), IR-4 Project Headquarters, 500 College Road East, Suite 201 W... studies showed no increased quantitative susceptibility of the fetus to tetraconazole exposure in utero...

Rocky River Watershed Based Curriculum Guide Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cox, Phillip Howard

Environmental education has the ability to increase cognitive ability, have a positive impact on group work skills, attitudes and self-efficacy, and increase student performance. Due to Federal "No Child Left Behind Act" legislation, increased standardized testing has resulted in the disenfranchisement of students from formal learning. The purpose of this project was to develop a curriculum guide based on the Rocky River watershed so teachers could use the Rocky River watershed as a means to satisfy the objectives of the NC Standard Course of Study and at the same time increase student environmental awareness, classroom engagement, sense of place and scores on the NC Earth/Environmental Final Exams. The project was developed to correlate with the newly revised North Carolina Standard Course of Study for Earth/Environmental Science. The curriculum guide was developed by utilizing the best practices suggested by scientific literature, the NC Standard Course of Study for Earth/Environmental Science, the North American Association for Environmental Education and the National Education Association.

How the Contents of a Bachelor's Degree Final Project of Engineering Evolve towards Innovative Scientific Knowledge: Keys to Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Núñez, Cristina; Guinea, Ana; Callau, Sara; Bengoa, Christophe; Basco, Josep; Gavaldà, Jordi

2017-01-01

The Bachelor's Degree Final Project (BDFP) of our school aims to develop a real constructive project, enhance cooperative teamwork and increase productivity of students. We present a real case study, related with engineering and scientific innovation results obtained by BDFP, which has led to an innovative scientific study presented at the 7th…

Why Development Projects Don't Work as Planned: Pitfalls and "Solutions." Special Studies Series on Global Development No. 5.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lackey, Alvin S.

Although this paper identifies the various reasons for project failure, it also highlights the principles and practices related to project success. The paper attempts to strike a positive note concerning steps to take to increase the probability of successful project implementation and to suggest more realistic attitudes and expectations toward…

Summary of Activities and Policy Studies. Educational Policy and Planning Project. A Government of Indonesia-USAID Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boediono; And Others

The Educational Policy and Planning (EPP) Project assists the Indonesian Ministry of Education and Culture (MOEC) in establishing an information system to improve policy analysis and formulation. There are five elements of the project strategy: increase the ability of MOEC staff to create and use information for use in policy research, strengthen…

Assessing Impact of Climate Change on the Runoffs of Gilgel Abbay Watershed, the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ayele, H. S.; Li, M. H.; Tung, C. P.; Liu, T. M.

2015-12-01

Water is the most climate sensitive sector in changing climate. Hydrological vulnerability assessment is critical to the implementation of adaption measures. In this study, projections of 7 GCMs in association with high (RCP8.5) and medium low (RCP4.5) representative concentration path way from the CMPI5 (fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) for the period 2021-2040 and 2081-2100 were adopted to assess the impacts of climate change on the runoffs of Gilgel Abbay watershed, the upper Blue Nile basin, in Ethiopia. The GCMs selected were first screened in harmony with baseline climate statistics of study areas. Based on climate projections and statistical characteristics of historical weather data, a weather generator was employed to generate daily temperature and precipitation as inputs for the GWLF hydrological model to simulate runoffs. Changes of projected temperature and precipitation were analyzed to explain variations of evapotranspiration and influences on future runoffs. We found that, despite the fact that the projected magnitude varies among different GCMs, increasing in the wet and a decreasing in dry seasons runoffs were observed in both time windows, which mainly attributes to the increase of precipitations projected by most of GCMs. In contrast to great increases in runoffs, the increase of evapotranspiration by elevating temperature is less significant. The increasing runoffs in both time windows will provide more water inflow to the Lake Tana. On the other hand, the increase of precipitation in wet season makes the wet season wetter and implies higher possibility of flash floods. This will have deleterious consequences in the local community. Therefore, concerned water organizations in local, state, and federal levels shall be prepared to harness the opportunities with more water resources for utilization and management, as well as flood preventive measures.

Academic Librarians and Project Management: An International Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Serrano, Silvia Cobo; Avilés, Rosario Arquero

2016-01-01

Because information and documentation units in libraries have responsibility for an ever-increasing number of projects, this paper aims at analyzing the discipline of project management in library and information science (LIS) from a professional perspective. To that end, the researchers employed quantitative and qualitative methodology based on a…

Growing Power?: Social Benefits From Urban Greening Projects

Treesearch

Lynne Westphal

1999-01-01

In this study I investigated practitioners claims for social benefits of urban greening projects (e.g., tree planting, community gardens). Practitioners' claims of increased neighborliness, reduced drug dealing and other social benefits have led to interest in using greening projects specifically to achieve these ends.Four sites that...

Teaching as Improvisational Experience: Student Music Teachers' Reflections on Learning during an Intercultural Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Westerlund, Heidi; Partti, Heidi; Karlsen, Sidsel

2015-01-01

This qualitative instrumental case study explores Finnish student music teachers' experiences of teaching and learning as participants in an intercultural project in Cambodia. The Multicultural Music University project aimed at increasing master's level music education students' intercultural competencies by providing experiences of teaching and…

Challenges Faced by Project Competition Participants and Recommended Solutions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demirel, Turgay; Baydas, Ozlem; Yilmaz, Rabia M.; Goktas, Yuksel

2013-01-01

The numbers of project competitions and interest in this kind of competition have been steadily increasing in Turkey. Accordingly, it is important to determine what challenges teachers and students may face while preparing themselves for project competitions, so that recommendations may be made to overcome these challenges. This study investigated…

The effectiveness of the Danish Organic Action Plan 2020 to increase the level of organic public procurement in Danish public kitchens.

PubMed

Sørensen, Nina N; Tetens, Inge; Løje, Hanne; Lassen, Anne D

2016-12-01

To measure the effect of organic food conversion projects on the percentage of organic food used in Danish public kitchens participating in the Danish Organic Action Plan 2020. The current longitudinal study was based on measurements of organic food percentages in Danish public kitchens before and after kitchen employees participated in conversion projects. Public kitchens participating in the nine organic food conversion projects under the Danish Organic Action Plan 2020, initiated during autumn 2012 and spring 2013 and completed in summer 2015. A total of 622 public kitchens. The average (median) increase in organic food percentage from baseline to follow-up was 24 percentage points (P<0·001) during an overall median follow-up period of 1·5 years. When analysing data according to public kitchen type, the increase remained significant for seven out of eight kitchens. Furthermore, the proportion of public kitchens eligible for the Organic Cuisine Label in either silver (60-90 % organic food procurement) or gold (90-100 % organic food procurement) level doubled from 31 % to 62 %, respectively, during the conversion period. Conversion project curriculum mostly included elements of 'theory', 'menu planning', 'network' and 'Organic Cuisine Label method' to ensure successful implementation. The study reports significant increases in the level of organic food procurement among public kitchens participating in the Danish Organic Action Plan 2020. Recommendations for future organic conversion projects include adding key curriculum components to the project's educational content and measuring changes in organic food percentage to increase the chances of successful implementation.

A generalized public goods game with coupling of individual ability and project benefit

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhong, Li-Xin; Xu, Wen-Juan; He, Yun-Xin; Zhong, Chen-Yang; Chen, Rong-Da; Qiu, Tian; Shi, Yong-Dong; Ren, Fei

2017-08-01

Facing a heavy task, any single person can only make a limited contribution and team cooperation is needed. As one enjoys the benefit of the public goods, the potential benefits of the project are not always maximized and may be partly wasted. By incorporating individual ability and project benefit into the original public goods game, we study the coupling effect of the four parameters, the upper limit of individual contribution, the upper limit of individual benefit, the needed project cost and the upper limit of project benefit on the evolution of cooperation. Coevolving with the individual-level group size preferences, an increase in the upper limit of individual benefit promotes cooperation while an increase in the upper limit of individual contribution inhibits cooperation. The coupling of the upper limit of individual contribution and the needed project cost determines the critical point of the upper limit of project benefit, where the equilibrium frequency of cooperators reaches its highest level. Above the critical point, an increase in the upper limit of project benefit inhibits cooperation. The evolution of cooperation is closely related to the preferred group-size distribution. A functional relation between the frequency of cooperators and the dominant group size is found.

Self-reliance through FP program.

PubMed

1988-03-01

The Yogyakarta Chapter of the Indonesian Planned Parenthood Association (IPPA), having been successful in bringing about a realization by the local community of the importance of family planning, has broadened its activities in an effort to further promote family welfare. Since 1980, the organization has begun a number of projects designed to increase the income of its client population. Given the fact that family planning acceptors of IPPA's Yogyakarta Chapter range from government officials' wives to farmers and school dropouts, its family income increase projects have been varied. Skills in such areas as bee breeding and hairdressing have been taught, and credit cooperatives have been established. These projects have been integrated with the group's family planning activities and have been paid for entirely with local funds. An integrated family planning/income increase project currently being operated by the Yogyakarta Chapter of IPPA is known as KBP2K. Along with the attempt to increase family income, the project aims to expand the acceptance of family planning and to retain existing acceptors in the family planning program. As of the 3rd quarter of 1987, 235 people had participated in the project and 59 new acceptors had been acquired. Family planning education was provided and classes were taught in various handicraft industries. Studies have revealed that the income levels of program participants significantly increased.

International Experiential Learning Course Design

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Elmore, Andrew Curtis

2006-01-01

International experiential learning projects have increased in popularity over recent years, and many of these projects focus on environmental topics in the developing world. An experimental course in International Groundwater Studies was developed to bridge the gap between extracurricular service type programs and academically-based study abroad…

Focused Campaign Increases Activity among Participants in "Nature's Notebook," a Citizen Science Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Crimmins, Theresa M.; Weltzin, Jake F.; Rosemartin, Alyssa H.; Surina, Echo M.; Marsh, Lee; Denny, Ellen G.

2014-01-01

Science projects, which engage non-professional scientists in one or more stages of scientific research, have been gaining popularity; yet maintaining participants' activity level over time remains a challenge. The objective of this study was to evaluate the potential for a short-term, focused campaign to increase participant activity in a…

Newspaper Content Analysis in Evaluation of a Community-Based Participatory Project to Increase Physical Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Granner, Michelle L.; Sharpe, Patricia A.; Burroughs, Ericka L.; Fields, Regina; Hallenbeck, Joyce

2010-01-01

This study conducted a newspaper content analysis as part of an evaluation of a community-based participatory research project focused on increasing physical activity through policy and environmental changes, which included activities related to media advocacy and media-based community education. Daily papers (May 2003 to December 2005) from both…

Improving Initiation and Tracking of Research Projects at an Academic Health Center: A Case Study.

PubMed

Schmidt, Susanne; Goros, Martin; Parsons, Helen M; Saygin, Can; Wan, Hung-Da; Shireman, Paula K; Gelfond, Jonathan A L

2017-09-01

Research service cores at academic health centers are important in driving translational advancements. Specifically, biostatistics and research design units provide services and training in data analytics, biostatistics, and study design. However, the increasing demand and complexity of assigning appropriate personnel to time-sensitive projects strains existing resources, potentially decreasing productivity and increasing costs. Improving processes for project initiation, assigning appropriate personnel, and tracking time-sensitive projects can eliminate bottlenecks and utilize resources more efficiently. In this case study, we describe our application of lean six sigma principles to our biostatistics unit to establish a systematic continual process improvement cycle for intake, allocation, and tracking of research design and data analysis projects. The define, measure, analyze, improve, and control methodology was used to guide the process improvement. Our goal was to assess and improve the efficiency and effectiveness of operations by objectively measuring outcomes, automating processes, and reducing bottlenecks. As a result, we developed a web-based dashboard application to capture, track, categorize, streamline, and automate project flow. Our workflow system resulted in improved transparency, efficiency, and workload allocation. Using the dashboard application, we reduced the average study intake time from 18 to 6 days, a 66.7% reduction over 12 months (January to December 2015).

Combining Project Management Methods: A Case Study of Dlstributed Work Practices

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Backlund, Per; Lundell, Björn

The increasing complexity of information systems development (ISD) projects call for improved project management practices. This, together with an endeavour to improve the success rate of ISD projects (Lyytinen and Robey 1999; Cooke-Davies 2002; White and Fortune 2002), has served as drivers for various efforts in process improvement such as the introduction of new development methods (Fitzgerald 1997; Iivari and Maansaari 1998).

Fin and Feather: Lessons Both Old and New Are Found in the Familiar Splash of the Salmon and the Novel Cluck of the Chicken.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weeds, Denise Jarrett

2002-01-01

Descriptions of students projects raising chickens and studying salmon illustrate how project-based learning engages high-risk Alaska Native students. Projects make learning relevant, involve the community, increase student self-esteem, and help students and teachers bond with each other. A 4-day workshop for teachers emphasized how projects must…

Association between forestry ecological engineering and dust weather in Inner Mongolia: A panel study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jixia, Huang; Qibin, Zhang; Jing, Tan; Depeng, Yue; Quansheng, Ge

2018-04-01

Forestry ecological engineering projects in Western China include the Three-North Shelter Forest Project (TNSFP), the Natural Forest Protection Project (NFPP), the Grain for Green Project (GGP) and the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Project (BTSSP). Such projects play an important role in the control of dust weather in Western China. In this research, data on the frequency of sandstorms, sand-blowing and dust-floating weather, the area of four forestry ecological engineering projects, wind, rainfall and vegetation coverage from 2000 to 2010 were collected based on the unit of prefecture-level cities in Inner Mongolia. The panel-data model was used to analyze the quantitative association between forestry ecological engineering and dust weather. The results indicate that wind has a strong promotional effect on dust weather, while forestry ecological engineering and rainfall have a containment effect. In addition, the impacts of the four studied forestry ecological engineering projects on dust weather differ. For every increase of 1000 km2 in the Three-North Shelter Forest Project, the annual number of days of sandstorm weather decreased by 4 days. Similarly, for every increase of 1000 km2 in the Beijing-Tianjin Sandstorm Source Project, the sand-blowing weather decreased by 4.4 days annually. In addition, NFPP and GGP have a more obvious inhibitory effect on the dust-floating weather.

Projected Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) for bacillary dysentery related to increased temperature in temperate and subtropical cities of China.

PubMed

Zhang, Ying; Bi, Peng; Sun, Yuwei; Hiller, Janet E

2012-02-01

The impact of climate change on enteric infection has been a concern in recent years. This study aims to project disability burdens of bacillary dysentery (BD) associated with increasing temperature in different climatic zones in China. Years Lost due to Disabilities (YLDs) were used as the measure of burden of bacillary dysentery in this study. A temperate city in northern China and a subtropical city in southern China were selected as the study areas. The quantitative relationship between temperature and the number of cases in each city was base on the regression models developed in our previous studies. YLDs for bacillary dysentery in 2000 were used as the baseline data. Projection of YLDs for bacillary dysentery in 2020 and 2050 under future temperature scenarios were conducted. Demographic changes over the next 20 to 50 years in study cities were considered in the projections. Under the temperature scenarios alone, the YLDs for bacillary dysentery may increase by up to 80% by 2020 and 174% by 2050 in the temperate city and up to 75% increase in the YLDs by 2020 and a 147% increase by 2050 in the tropical city. Considering potential changes in both temperature and population size and structure, if other factors remain constant, compared with the YLDs observed in 2000, the YLDs for bacillary dysentery may double by 2020 and triple by 2050 in both the temperate and subtropical cities in China. The temperature-related health burden of enteric infection in China may greatly increase in the future if there is no effective intervention. Relevant public health strategies should be developed at an earlier stage to prevent and reduce the impact of infectious disease associated with climate change.

Collaboration in research and the influential factors in Golestan University of Medical Sciences research projects (2005-2007): an academic sample from Iran.

PubMed

Borghei, Afsaneh; Qorbani, Mostafa; Rezapour, Aziz; Majdzadeh, Reza; Nedjat, Saharnaz; Asayesh, Hamid; Mansourian, Morteza; Noroozi, Mahdi; Jahahgir, Fereydoon

2013-08-01

Number of Iranian articles published in ISI journals has increased significantly in recent years.Despite the quantitative progress, studies performed in Iran represent low collaboration in research; therefore,we decided to evaluate collaboration in Golestan University of Medical Sciences (GOUMS) research projects. In this cross-sectional study, all GOUMS research projects that had got grants from the universitybetween 2005-2007 were studied. Among 107 research projects included in our study, 102 projects were evaluatedand checklists were completed. The researcher's questionnaire was sent to the principle investigators (n=46) of the projects and eventually 40 questionnaires were collected. The review of 102 research proposals shows that 10 projects (9.8%) have been performed in collaborationwith other organizations. Scientific outputs in these projects have been more than projects which wereconfined to the university (98% compare to 68%; p= 0.04). The total cost of the projects under study was a littlemore than 300,000 US$. In just 12 projects (11.8%) a part of the cost had been provided by organizations outsidethe university. About 50% of researchers declared that they had chosen their research topic based on their"personal interest". Only 1 project was performed by the demand of nongovernmental organizations and 12 researchersreported no collaboration in their activities. This study shows that collaboration in GOUMS research projects is low. Moreover, collaborationswith governmental and nongovernmental organizations are trivial. The scientific outputs in collaborativeresearch projects are much more than other projects.

34 CFR 377.1 - What is the Demonstration Projects to Increase Client Choice Program?

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 34 Education 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What is the Demonstration Projects to Increase Client... PROJECTS TO INCREASE CLIENT CHOICE PROGRAM General § 377.1 What is the Demonstration Projects to Increase Client Choice Program? The Demonstration Projects to Increase Client Choice Program is designed to...

Motivating First-Year University Students by Interdisciplinary Study Projects

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Koch, Franziska D.; Dirsch-Weigand, Andrea; Awolin, Malte; Pinkelman, Rebecca J.; Hampe, Manfred J.

2017-01-01

In order to increase student commitment from the beginning of students' university careers, the Technische Universität Darmstadt has introduced interdisciplinary study projects involving first-year students from the engineering, natural, social and history, economics and/or human sciences departments. The didactic concept includes sophisticated…

Learning in a World of Change: Methods and Approaches in the Classroom.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Richardson, Robin

1979-01-01

Recommends that teachers use a curriculum development project (the World Studies Project) to help students increase their understanding of global affairs such as human rights, economic order, disarmament, the world environment, and the law of the sea. Activities and objectives of the project are presented and ordering information for additional…

Projected effects of climate and development on California wildfire emissions through 2100.

PubMed

Hurteau, Matthew D; Westerling, Anthony L; Wiedinmyer, Christine; Bryant, Benjamin P

2014-02-18

Changing climatic conditions are influencing large wildfire frequency, a globally widespread disturbance that affects both human and natural systems. Understanding how climate change, population growth, and development patterns will affect the area burned by and emissions from wildfires and how populations will in turn be exposed to emissions is critical for climate change adaptation and mitigation planning. We quantified the effects of a range of population growth and development patterns in California on emission projections from large wildfires under six future climate scenarios. Here we show that end-of-century wildfire emissions are projected to increase by 19-101% (median increase 56%) above the baseline period (1961-1990) in California for a medium-high temperature scenario, with the largest emissions increases concentrated in northern California. In contrast to other measures of wildfire impacts previously studied (e.g., structural loss), projected population growth and development patterns are unlikely to substantially influence the amount of projected statewide wildfire emissions. However, increases in wildfire emissions due to climate change may have detrimental impacts on air quality and, combined with a growing population, may result in increased population exposure to unhealthy air pollutants.

The syphilis elimination project: targeting the Hispanic community of Baltimore city.

PubMed

Endyke-Doran, Cara; Gonzalez, Rosa Maria; Trujillo, Marangellie; Solera, Angelo; Vigilance, Pierre N; Edwards, Lori A; Groves, Sara L

2007-01-01

The objective of the Syphilis Elimination Project was to decrease the incidence of syphilis in the Hispanic community of Baltimore City through a culturally appropriate health initiative. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were used in the study design. Surveillance data were used to collect testing information. Comparisons at the start and end of the project measured change in individual knowledge about syphilis. Cross-sectional data from interviews with business owners and qualitative comments from outreach workers evaluated perception of program effectiveness. The local health department collected surveillance data. A convenience sample of 63 Hispanic community members, 12 business owners/managers, and 8 outreach workers was utilized throughout the evaluation process. The project was a culturally appropriate approach to health promotion with street and business outreach. Post intervention there was a statistically significant increase in knowledge about syphilis within the Hispanic community and an increase in testing behaviors. The Syphilis Elimination Project was created in response to a marked increase in syphilis in Baltimore among the Hispanic population and a health disparity that existed within the city. It increased community members' knowledge of syphilis and positively influenced testing behaviors.

Regional and global implications of land-use change and climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stauffer, Heidi Lada

This dissertation has two main components. The first is a longterm regional climate modeling study of the effects of different types of land use changes on Southeast Asian climate under present-day climate conditions and under future projected climate conditions at the end of the 21st Century. The focus of the second component is to estimate daily heat index for projected extreme temperatures at the end of the 21st Century and projecting the number of people affected by those heat conditions. The first component of this study uses a high-resolution regional climate model centered on the Southeast Asian region to compare two land use change scenarios under modern climate and future projected climate conditions. Results from experiments under modern climate conditions indicate that changes in regional climate including widespread surface cooling, increased precipitation, and increased latent heat flux are primarily due to deforestation. As expected from other studies, future climate projections indicate increasing surface temperature and total precipitation. However, the combination of increasing global temperatures and irrigation appears to increase latent heat flux and evapotranspiration, leading to decrease in the surface temperature nearly the same magnitude, increasing both specific humidity and relative humidity. The increasing relative humidity causes low clouds to form, and the net surface solar absorbed flux decreases in response, which further cools the surface. These results imply that deforestation and irrigation have differing complex regional climate responses and the presence of irrigation could mask future surface temperature increases, at least in the short term and reinforce the importance of incorporating land use changes, particularly irrigation, into any studies of future regional climate. The second component of this study uses global daily maximum heat indices derived from future climate future climate simulations for 2098 and projected population density to estimate how many people will be affected by rising temperatures. Our results show that over 4 billion people annually will experience prolonged periods of Danger heat index conditions, under which heat exhaustion and heat stroke are likely. In addition, a majority of people subjected to prolonged high heat stress conditions are located in tropical developing nations, such as those in south and Southeast Asia, where population density is high and large numbers of people work outdoors. Many countries in these regions lack the resources to mitigate the impact of heat stress on the large numbers of people likely to experience heat-related illness and death.

Contrasting the projected change in extreme extratropical cyclones in the two hemispheres

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chang, E. K. M.

2017-12-01

Extratropical cyclones form an important part of the global circulation. They are responsible for much of the high impact weather in the mid-latitudes, including heavy precipitation, strong winds, and coastal storm surges. They are also the surface manifestation of baroclinic waves that are responsible for much of the transport of momentum, heat, and moisture across the mid-latitudes. Thus how these storms will change in the future is of much general interest. In particular, how the frequency of the extreme cyclones change are of most concern, since they are the ones that cause most damages. While the projection of a poleward shift of the Southern Hemisphere storm track and cyclone activity is widely accepted, together with a small decrease in the total number of extratropical cyclones, as discussed in the 5th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5), projected change in cyclone intensity is still rather uncertain. Several studies have suggested that cyclone intensity, in terms of absolute value of sea level pressure (SLP) minima or SLP perturbations, is projected to increase under global warming. However, other studies found no increase in wind speed around extratropical cyclones. In this study, CMIP5 multi-model projection of how the frequency of extreme cyclones in terms of near surface wind intensity may change under global warming has been examined. Results suggest significant increase in the occurrences of extreme cyclones in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, CMIP5 models project a northeastward shift in extreme cyclone activity over the Pacific, and significant decrease over the Atlantic. Substantial differences are also found between projected changes in near surface wind intensity and wind intensity at 850 hPa, suggesting that wind change at 850 hPa is not a good proxy for change in surface wind intensity. Finally, projected changes in the large scale environment are examined to understand the dynamics behind these contrasting projected changes.

Open Innovation and the Erosion of the Traditional Information Systems Project's Boundaries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Elbanna, Amany

This paper examines the notion of open innovation and its implication on information systems management. It investigates a project of an enterprise resource planning system implementation in an international organization to unravel the resemblance with the open innovation model. The study shows that the conceptualization of ERP project as an open innovation could reveal the complex architecture of today's organization from which the ERP project cannot be isolated. It argues that the traditional boundaries around IS projects are dissolving and the relationship between what used to be outside and what used to be inside the project is increasingly blurred. The study calls for a different perspective of project management that goes beyond single and multiple project management to scan the open space of innovation and actively look for partners, competitors, and collaborators.

Motivating first-year university students by interdisciplinary study projects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Koch, Franziska D.; Dirsch-Weigand, Andrea; Awolin, Malte; Pinkelman, Rebecca J.; Hampe, Manfred J.

2017-01-01

In order to increase student commitment from the beginning of students' university careers, the Technische Universität Darmstadt has introduced interdisciplinary study projects involving first-year students from the engineering, natural, social and history, economics and/or human sciences departments. The didactic concept includes sophisticated task design, individual responsibility and a differentiated support system. Using a self-determination theory framework, this study examined the effects of the projects based on survey findings from two projects with more than 1000 students. The results showed that the projects were successful in fulfilling students' basic psychological needs and in promoting students' academic engagement. Basic psychological needs were found to be significant predictors of academic engagement. These findings suggest that interdisciplinary study projects can potentially contribute to improving higher education as they fulfil students' basic psychological needs for competence, relatedness and autonomy and enhance students' academic engagement.

Projections of annual rainfall and surface temperature from CMIP5 models over the BIMSTEC countries

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pattnayak, K. C.; Kar, S. C.; Dalal, Mamta; Pattnayak, R. K.

2017-05-01

Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand brings together 21% of the world population. Thus the impact of climate change in this region is a major concern for all. To study the climate change, fifth phase of Climate Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) models have been used to project the climate for the 21st century under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 over the BIMSTEC countries for the period 1901 to 2100 (initial 105 years are historical period and the later 95 years are projected period). Climate change in the projected period has been examined with respect to the historical period. In order to validate the models, the mean annual rainfall has been compared with observations from multiple sources and temperature has been compared with the data from Climatic Research Unit (CRU) during the historical period. Comparison reveals that ensemble mean of the models is able to represent the observed spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature over the BIMSTEC countries. Therefore, data from these models may be used to study the future changes in the 21st century. Four out of six models show that the rainfall over India, Thailand and Myanmar has decreasing trend and Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Sri Lanka show an increasing trend in both the RCP scenarios. In case of temperature, all the models show an increasing trend over all the BIMSTEC countries in both the scenarios, however, the rate of increase is relatively less over Sri Lanka than the other countries. The rate of increase/decrease in rainfall and temperature are relatively more in RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 over all these countries. Inter-model comparison show that there are uncertainties within the CMIP5 model projections. More similar studies are required to be done for better understanding the model uncertainties in climate projections over this region.

Project BudBurst - Meeting the Needs of Climate Change Educators and Scientists

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, S.

2015-12-01

It is challenging for many to get a sense of what climate change means as long periods of time are involved - like decades - which can be difficult to grasp. However, there are a number of citizen science based projects, including NEON's Project BudBurst, that provide the opportunity for both learning about climate change and advancing scientific knowledge. In this presentation, we will share lessons learned from Project BudBurst. Project BudBurst is a national citizen science initiative designed to engage the public in observations of phenological (plant life cycle) events and to increase climate literacy. Project BudBurst is important from an educational perspective, but also because it enables scientists to broaden the geographic and temporal scale of their observations. The goals of Project BudBurst are to 1) increase awareness of phenology as an area of scientific study; 2) Increase awareness of the impacts of changing climates on plants at a continental-scale; and 3) increase science literacy by engaging participants in the scientific process. It was important to better understand if and how Project BudBurst is meeting its goals. Specifically, does participation by non-experts advance scientific knowledge? Does participation advance educational goals and outcomes? Is participation an effective approach to advance/enhance science education in both formal and informal settings? Critical examination of Project BudBurst supports advancement of scientific knowledge and realization of educational objectives. Citizen science collected observations and measurements are being used by scientists as evidenced by the increase of such data in scientific publication. In addition, we found that there is a significant increase in educators utilizing citizen science as part of their instruction. Part of this increase is due to the resources and professional development materials available to educators. Working with partners also demonstrated that the needs of both science and education are being met. Project BudBurst, partners with the PhenoCam Network, National Geographic Society, US Fish and Wildlife Service, National Park Service botanic gardens, science centers and other organizations with both a scientific and educational mission.

Role of surface-water and groundwater interactions on projected summertime streamflow in snow dominated regions : An integrated modeling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huntington, Justin L.; Niswonger, Richard G.

2012-01-01

Previous studies indicate predominantly increasing trends in precipitation across the Western United States, while at the same time, historical streamflow records indicate decreasing summertime streamflow and 25th percentile annual flows. These opposing trends could be viewed as paradoxical, given that several studies suggest that increased annual precipitation will equate to increased annual groundwater recharge, and therefore increased summertime flow. To gain insight on mechanisms behind these potential changes, we rely on a calibrated, integrated surface and groundwater model to simulate climate impacts on surface water/groundwater interactions using 12 general circulation model projections of temperature and precipitation from 2010 to 2100, and evaluate the interplay between snowmelt timing and other hydrologic variables, including streamflow, groundwater recharge, storage, groundwater discharge, and evapotranspiration. Hydrologic simulations show that the timing of peak groundwater discharge to the stream is inversely correlated to snowmelt runoff and groundwater recharge due to the bank storage effect and reversal of hydraulic gradients between the stream and underlying groundwater. That is, groundwater flow to streams peaks following the decrease in stream depth caused by snowmelt recession, and the shift in snowmelt causes a corresponding shift in groundwater discharge to streams. Our results show that groundwater discharge to streams is depleted during the summer due to earlier drainage of shallow aquifers adjacent to streams even if projected annual precipitation and groundwater recharge increases. These projected changes in surface water/groundwater interactions result in more than a 30% decrease in the projected ensemble summertime streamflow. Our findings clarify causality of observed decreasing summertime flow, highlight important aspects of potential climate change impacts on groundwater resources, and underscore the need for integrated hydrologic models in climate change studies.

Barriers and facilitators for integrating digital narratives in secondary school science instruction: A media specialist's action research study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Midland, Susan

Media specialists are increasingly assuming professional development roles as they collaborate with teachers to design instruction that combines content with technology. I am a media specialist in an independent school, and collaborated with two science teachers over a three-year period to integrate technology with their instruction. This action study explored integration of a digital narrative project in three eighth-grade earth science units and one ninth-grade physics unit with each unit serving as a cycle of research. Students produced short digital documentaries that combined still images with an accompanying narration. Students participating in the project wrote scripts based on selected science topics. The completed scripts served as the basis for the narratives. These projects were compared with a more traditional science writing project. Barriers and facilitators for implementation of this type of media project in a science classroom were identified. Lack of adequate access to computers proved to be a significant mechanical barrier. Acquisition of a laptop cart reduced but did not eliminate the technology access issues. The complexity of the project increased implementation time in comparison with traditional alternatives. Evaluation of the completed media projects presented problems. Scores by outside evaluators reflected evaluator unfamiliarity with assessing multimedia projects rather than student performance. Despite several revisions of the assessment rubric, low inter-rater reliability remained a concern even in the last cycle. This suggests that evaluation of media could present issues for teachers who attempt projects of this kind. A writing frame was developed to facilitate production of scripts. This reduced the time required to produce the scripts, but produced writing that was formulaic in the teacher's estimate. A graphic organizer was adopted in the final cycle to address this concern. New insights emerged as the study progressed through the four cycles of the study. At the conclusion of the study, the two teachers and I had a better understanding of barriers that can prevent smooth integration of a technology-based project.

Estimation of the climate change impact on a catchment water balance using an ensemble of GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reshmidevi, T. V.; Nagesh Kumar, D.; Mehrotra, R.; Sharma, A.

2018-01-01

This work evaluates the impact of climate change on the water balance of a catchment in India. Rainfall and hydro-meteorological variables for current (20C3M scenario, 1981-2000) and two future time periods: mid of the 21st century (2046-2065) and end of the century (2081-2100) are simulated using Modified Markov Model-Kernel Density Estimation (MMM-KDE) and k-nearest neighbor downscaling models. Climate projections from an ensemble of 5 GCMs (MPI-ECHAM5, BCCR-BCM2.0, CSIRO-mk3.5, IPSL-CM4, and MRI-CGCM2) are used in this study. Hydrologic simulations for the current as well as future climate scenarios are carried out using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) integrated with ArcGIS (ArcSWAT v.2009). The results show marginal reduction in runoff ratio, annual streamflow and groundwater recharge towards the end of the century. Increased temperature and evapotranspiration project an increase in the irrigation demand towards the end of the century. Rainfall projections for the future shows marginal increase in the annual average rainfall. Short and moderate wet spells are projected to decrease, whereas short and moderate dry spells are projected to increase in the future. Projected reduction in streamflow and groundwater recharge along with the increase in irrigation demand is likely to aggravate the water stress in the region under the future scenario.

Construction Cost Growth for New Department of Energy Nuclear Facilities

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kubic, Jr., William L.

Cost growth and construction delays are problems that plague many large construction projects including the construction of new Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear facilities. A study was conducted to evaluate cost growth of large DOE construction projects. The purpose of the study was to compile relevant data, consider the possible causes of cost growth, and recommend measures that could be used to avoid extreme cost growth in the future. Both large DOE and non-DOE construction projects were considered in this study. With the exception of Chemical and Metallurgical Research Building Replacement Project (CMRR) and the Mixed Oxide Fuel Fabrication Facilitymore » (MFFF), cost growth for DOE Nuclear facilities is comparable to the growth experienced in other mega construction projects. The largest increase in estimated cost was found to occur between early cost estimates and establishing the project baseline during detailed design. Once the project baseline was established, cost growth for DOE nuclear facilities was modest compared to non-DOE mega projects.« less

Students' Perceptions of Life Skill Development in Project-Based Learning Schools

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meyer, Kimberly; Wurdinger, Scott

2016-01-01

This research aimed to examine students' perceptions of their life skills while attending project-based learning (PBL) schools. The study focused on three questions including: (1) What are students' perceptions of their development of life skills in project-based learning schools?; (2) In what ways, if any, do students perceive an increase in…

Parkinson disease with and without Dementia: A prevalence study and future projections.

PubMed

Savica, Rodolfo; Grossardt, Brandon R; Rocca, Walter A; Bower, James H

2018-04-01

Limited population-based information is available on the co-occurrence of dementia and PD. However, projecting the prevalence of PD with and without dementia during the next 50 years is crucial for planning public-health and patient-care initiatives. The objective of this study was to project the prevalence of PD with and without dementia in the United States by 2060. We used the Rochester Epidemiology Project medical records-linkage system to identify all persons with PD with or without dementia residing in Olmsted County, Minnesota, on January 1, 2006. A movement disorders specialist reviewed the complete medical records of each person to confirm the presence of PD. We calculated the age- and sex-specific prevalence of PD with and without dementia and projected U.S. prevalence through 2060. We identified 296 persons with PD with and without dementia on the prevalence date (187 men, 109 women); the overall prevalence increased with age from 0.01% (30-39 years) to 2.83% (≥90 years). The prevalence of PD without dementia increased with age from 0.01% (30-39 years) to 1.25% (≥90 years). The prevalence of PD with dementia increased with age from 0.10% (60-69 years) to 1.59% (≥90 years). The prevalence was higher in men than in women for all subtypes and all age groups. We project by 2060 an approximate doubling of the number of persons with PD without dementia and a tripling of the number of persons with PD with dementia in the United States. The prevalence of PD with and without dementia increases with age and is higher in men than women. We project that the number of persons with PD in the United States will increase substantially by 2060. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society. © 2018 International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

[Effect of terracing project on temporal-spatial variation of non-point source pollution load in Hujiashan watershed, China].

PubMed

Han, Qiang; Yu, Xing Xiu; Wang, Wei; Xu, Miao Miao; Ren, Rui; Zhang, Jia Peng

2017-04-18

Taking Hujiashan small watershed as the study area, based on the classified result of Landsat TM/ETM images of 2005, 2010 and 2015, combined with long-term field observation data, and used the export coefficient model, our study explored the effect of small watershed management project on temporal and spatial variation of total nitrogen (TN) load of non-point source pollution under the support of GIS technology. The results indicated that, due to the implementation of slope modification project, the area of cultivated land was significantly increased, while forest and bareland were decreased. The load of non-point source TN increased from 63208 kg in 2005 to 72778 kg in 2010, but reduced to 46876 kg in 2015. The contribution rate from residential areas was higher, the average contribution rate of the three periods was 53.5%, but it showed a decreasing trend year by year. The contribution rate of land use types was 45%, which showed an increasing trend year by year. The contribution rate of livestock was always low. From the spatial distribution, TN loading intensity was changed obviously after the terracing project. High load intensity zone was mainly concentrated on the slope of 5°-15° before terracing project. Nevertheless, high load intensity zone was concentrated on the slope of 15°-35° after terracing project, and 5°-8° had become a low load strength area. The TN load intensity changed little with time on the slope of 0°-8°, and it increased first and then decreased on the slope above 8°. With the treatment of sewage, garbage and livestock manure in rural areas, the output of nitrogen in the living and livestock breeding were significantly reduced. Due to the implementation of the project, the cultivated land area increased by 31%.

High occupancy vehicle project case studies : historical trends and project experiences

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1992-08-01

High-occupancy vehicle (HOV) facilities represent one approach being used in many metropolitan areas today to respond to increasing traffic congestion, declining mobility levels, air quality and environmental concerns, and limited resources. HOV faci...

Projections of 21st Century African Climate: Implications for African Savanna Fire Dynamics, Human Health and Food Security

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adegoke, J. O.

2015-12-01

Fire is a key agent of change in the African savannas, which are shaped through the complex interactions between trees, C4 grasses, rainfall, temperature, CO2 and fire. These fires and their emitted smoke can have numerous direct and indirect effects on the environment, water resources, air quality, and climate. For instance, veld fires in southern Africa cause large financial losses to agriculture, livestock production and forestry on an annual basis. This study contributes to our understanding of the implications of projected surface temperature evolution in Africa for fire risk, human health and agriculture over the coming decades. We use an ensemble of high-resolution regional climate model simulations of African climate for the 21st century. Regional dowscalings and recent global circulation model projections obtained for Africa indicate that African temperatures are likely to rise at 1.5 times the global rate of temperature increase in the tropics, and at almost twice the global rate of increase in the subtropics. Warming is projected to occur during the 21st century, with increases of 4-6 °C over the subtropics and 3-5 °C over the tropics plausible by the end of the century relative to present-day climate under the A2 (low mitigation) scenario. We explore the significance of the projected warming by documenting increases in projected high fire danger days and heat-wave days. General drying is projected across the continent, even for areas (e.g. tropical Africa) where an increase in rainfall is plausible. This is due to the drastic increases in temperature that are projected, which leads to drier soils (through enhanced evaporation) despite the rainfall increases. This will likely impact negatively on crop yield, particularly on the maize crop that is of crucial importance in terms of African food security.

Projecting water resources changes in potential large-scale agricultural investment areas of the Kafue River Basin in Zambia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Y.; Trainor, A. M.; Baker, T. J.

2017-12-01

Climate change impacts regional water availability through the spatial and temporal redistribution of available water resources. This study focuses on understanding possible response of water resources to climate change in regions where potentials for large-scale agricultural investments are planned in the upper and middle Kafue River Basin in Zambia. We used historical and projected precipitation and temperature to assess changes in water yield, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrological model. Some of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate model outputs for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios project a temperature warming range from 1.8 - 5.7 °C over the region from 2020 to 2095. Precipitation projection patterns vary monthly but tend toward drier dry seasons with a slight increase in precipitation during the rainy season as compared to the historical time series. The best five calibrated parameter sets generated for the historical record (1965 - 2005) were applied for two future periods, 2020 - 2060 and 2055 - 2095, to project water yield change. Simulations projected that the 90th percentile water yield would be exceeded across most of the study area by up to 800% under the medium-low (RCP4.5) CO2 emission scenario, whereas the high (RCP8.5) CO2 emission scenario resulted in a more spatially varied pattern mixed with increasing (up to 500%) and decreasing (up to -54%) trends. The 10th percentile water yield indicated spatially varied pattern across the basin, increasing by as much as 500% though decreasing in some areas by 66%, with the greatest decreases during the dry season under RCP8.5. Overall, available water resources in the study area are projected to trend toward increased floods (i.e. water yields far exceeding 90th percentile) as well as increasing drought (i.e. water yield far below 10th percentile) vulnerability. Because surface water is a primary source for agriculture in this region, planning must focus on simulating the potential range in spatial and temporal variability of water resources for different agricultural production schemes, their infrastructure requirements, and attendant influence on water resources in the basin.

Effects of an incinerator project on a healthcare-waste management system.

PubMed

Khammaneechan, Patthanasak; Okanurak, Kamolnetr; Sithisarankul, Pornchai; Tantrakarnapa, Kraichat; Norramit, Poonsup

2011-10-01

This evaluative research study aimed to assess the effects of the central healthcare incinerator project on waste management in Yala Province. The study data were collected twice: at baseline and during the operational phase. A combination of structured interview and observation were used during data collection. The study covered 127 healthcare facilities: government hospitals, healthcare centres, and private clinics. The results showed 63% of healthcare risk waste (HCRW) handlers attended the HCRW management training. Improvements in each stage of the HCRW management system were observed in all groups of facilities. The total cost of the HCRW management system did not change, however; the costs for hospitals decreased, whereas those for clinics increased significantly. It was concluded that the central healthcare waste incinerator project positively affected HCRW management in the area, although the costs of management might increase for a particular group. However, the benefits of changing to a more appropriately managed HCRW system will outweigh the increased costs.

The Toxic Effects of Cigarette Additives. Philip Morris' Project Mix Reconsidered: An Analysis of Documents Released through Litigation

PubMed Central

Wertz, Marcia S.; Kyriss, Thomas; Paranjape, Suman; Glantz, Stanton A.

2011-01-01

Background In 2009, the promulgation of US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) tobacco regulation focused attention on cigarette flavor additives. The tobacco industry had prepared for this eventuality by initiating a research program focusing on additive toxicity. The objective of this study was to analyze Philip Morris' Project MIX as a case study of tobacco industry scientific research being positioned strategically to prevent anticipated tobacco control regulations. Methods and Findings We analyzed previously secret tobacco industry documents to identify internal strategies for research on cigarette additives and reanalyzed tobacco industry peer-reviewed published results of this research. We focused on the key group of studies conducted by Phillip Morris in a coordinated effort known as “Project MIX.” Documents showed that Project MIX subsumed the study of various combinations of 333 cigarette additives. In addition to multiple internal reports, this work also led to four peer-reviewed publications (published in 2001). These papers concluded that there was no evidence of substantial toxicity attributable to the cigarette additives studied. Internal documents revealed post hoc changes in analytical protocols after initial statistical findings indicated an additive-associated increase in cigarette toxicity as well as increased total particulate matter (TPM) concentrations in additive-modified cigarette smoke. By expressing the data adjusted by TPM concentration, the published papers obscured this underlying toxicity and particulate increase. The animal toxicology results were based on a small number of rats in each experiment, raising the possibility that the failure to detect statistically significant changes in the end points was due to underpowering the experiments rather than lack of a real effect. Conclusion The case study of Project MIX shows tobacco industry scientific research on the use of cigarette additives cannot be taken at face value. The results demonstrate that toxins in cigarette smoke increase substantially when additives are put in cigarettes, including the level of TPM. In particular, regulatory authorities, including the FDA and similar agencies elsewhere, could use the Project MIX data to eliminate the use of these 333 additives (including menthol) from cigarettes. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22205885

Child welfare caseworkers as service brokers for youth in foster care: findings from project focus.

PubMed

Dorsey, Shannon; Kerns, Suzanne E U; Trupin, Eric W; Conover, Kate L; Berliner, Lucy

2012-02-01

Youth in the foster care system have substantially higher rates of mental health needs compared to the general population, yet they rarely receive targeted, evidence-based practices (EBPs). Increasingly emerging in the literature on mental health services is the importance of "brokers" or "gateway providers" of services. For youth in foster care, child welfare caseworkers often play this role. This study examines caseworker-level outcomes of Project Focus, a caseworker training and consultation model designed to improve emotional and behavioral outcomes for youth in foster care through increased linkages with EBPs. Project Focus was tested through a small, randomized trial involving four child welfare offices. Caseworkers in the Project Focus intervention group demonstrated an increased awareness of EBPs and a trend toward increased ability to identify appropriate EBP referrals for particular mental health problems but did not have significantly different rates of actual referral to EBPs. Dose of consultation was associated with general awareness of EBPs. Implications for practice and outcomes for youth are discussed.

Increasing the applicability of wind power projects via a multi-criteria approach: methodology and case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Polatidis, Heracles; Morales, Jan Borràs

2016-11-01

In this paper a methodological framework for increasing the actual applicability of wind farms is developed and applied. The framework is based on multi-criteria decision aid techniques that perform an integrated technical and societal evaluation of a number of potential wind power projects that are a variation of a pre-existing actual proposal that faces implementation difficulties. A number of evaluation criteria are established and assessed via particular related software or are comparatively evaluated among each other on a semi-qualitative basis. The preference of a diverse audience of pertinent stakeholders can be also incorporated in the overall analysis. The result of the process is an identification of a new project that will exhibit increased actual implementation potential compared with the original proposal. The methodology is tested in a case study of a wind farm in the UK and relevant conclusions are drawn.

Effects of Seating Location and Stereoscopic Display on Learning Outcomes in an Introductory Physical Geography Class

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hirmas, Daniel R.; Slocum, Terry; Halfen, Alan F.; White, Travis; Zautner, Eric; Atchley, Paul; Liu, Huan; Johnson, William C.; Egbert, Stephen; McDermott, Dave

2014-01-01

Recently, the use of stereoscopic three-dimensional (3-D) projection displays has increased in geoscience education. One concern in employing 3-D projection systems in large lecture halls, however, is that the 3-D effect is reported to diminish with increased angle and distance from the stereoscopic display. The goal of this work was to study that…

Cacao Intensification in Sulawesi: A Green Prosperity Model Project

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moriarty, K.; Elchinger, M.; Hill, G.

2014-09-01

NREL conducted eight model projects for Millennium Challenge Corporation's (MCC) Compact with Indonesia. Green Prosperity, the largest project of the Compact, seeks to address critical constraints to economic growth while supporting the Government of Indonesia's commitment to a more sustainable, less carbon-intensive future. This study evaluates techniques to improve cacao farming in Sulawesi Indonesia with an emphasis on Farmer Field Schools and Cocoa Development Centers to educate farmers and for train the trainer programs. The study estimates the economic viability of cacao farming if smallholder implement techniques to increase yield as well as social and environmental impacts of the project.

Regional hydrologic response to climate change in the conterminous United States using high-resolution hydroclimate simulations

DOE PAGES

Kao, Shih -Chieh; Ashfaq, Moetasim; Mei, Rui; ...

2016-06-16

Despite the fact that Global Climate Model (GCM) outputs have been used to project hydrologic impacts of climate change using off-line hydrologic models for two decades, many of these efforts have been disjointed applications or at least calibrations have been focused on individual river basins and using a few of the available GCMs. This study improves upon earlier attempts by systematically projecting hydrologic impacts for the entire conterminous United States (US), using outputs from ten GCMs from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) archive, with seamless hydrologic model calibration and validation techniques to produce a spatially andmore » temporally consistent set of current hydrologic projections. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was forced with ten-member ensemble projections of precipitation and air temperature that were dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RegCM4) and bias-corrected to 1/24 (~4 km) grid resolution for the baseline (1966 2005) and future (2011 2050) periods under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Based on regional analysis, the VIC model projections indicate an increase in winter and spring total runoff due to increases in winter precipitation of up to 20% in most regions of the US. However, decreases in snow water equivalent (SWE) and snow-covered days will lead to significant decreases in summer runoff with more pronounced shifts in the time of occurrence of annual peak runoff projected over the eastern and western US. In contrast, the central US will experience year-round increases in total runoff, mostly associated with increases in both extreme high and low runoff. Furthermore, the projected hydrological changes described in this study have implications for various aspects of future water resource management, including water supply, flood and drought preparation, and reservoir operation.« less

"It takes a village" to raise research productivity: Impact of a Trauma Interdisciplinary Group for Research (TIGR) at an urban, Level 1 trauma center.

PubMed

Nesmith, Elizabeth G; Medeiros, Regina S; Ferdinand, Colville H B; Hawkins, Michael L; Holsten, Steven B; Dong, Yanbin; Zhu, Haidong

2013-07-01

Few interdisciplinary research groups include basic scientists, pharmacists, therapists, nutritionists, lab technicians, as well as trauma patients and families, in addition to clinicians. Increasing interprofessional diversity within scientific teams working to improve trauma care is a goal of national organizations and federal funding agencies like the National Institutes of Health (NIH). This paper describes the design, implementation, and outcomes of a Trauma Interdisciplinary Group for Research (TIGR) at a Level 1 trauma center as it relates to increasing research productivity, with specific examples excerpted from an on-going NIH-funded study. We utilized a pre-test/post-test design with objectives aimed at measuring increases in research productivity following a targeted intervention. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats) analysis was used to develop the intervention which included research skill-building activities, accomplished by adding multidisciplinary investigators to an existing NIH-funded project. The NIH project aimed to test the hypothesis that accelerated biologic aging from chronic stress increases baseline inflammation and reduces inflammatory response to trauma (projected N=150). Pre/Post-TIGR data related to participant screening, recruitment, consent, and research processes were compared. Research productivity was measured through abstracts, publications, and investigator-initiated projects. Research products increased from N =12 to N=42; (~ 400%). Research proposals for federal funding increased from N=0 to N=3, with success rate of 66%. Participant screenings for the NIH-funded study increased from N=40 to N=313. Consents increased from N=14 to N=70. Lab service fees were reduced from $300/participant to $5/participant. Adding diversity to our scientific team via TIGR was exponentially successful in 1) improving research productivity, 2) reducing research costs, and 3) increasing research products and mentoring activities that the team prior to TIGR had not entertained. The team is now well-positioned to apply for more federally funded projects and more trauma clinicians are considering research careers than before.

"It takes a village" to raise research productivity: impact of a Trauma Interdisciplinary Group for Research at an urban, Level 1 trauma center.

PubMed

NeSmith, Elizabeth G; Medeiros, Regina S; Ferdinand, Colville H B; Hawkins, Michael L; Holsten, Steven B; Zhu, Haidong; Dong, Yanbin

2013-07-01

Few interdisciplinary research groups include basic scientists, pharmacists, therapists, nutritionists, laboratory technicians, as well as trauma patients and families, in addition to clinicians. Increasing interprofessional diversity within scientific teams working to improve trauma care is a goal of national organizations and federal funding agencies such as the National Institutes of Health (NIH). This article describes the design, implementation, and outcomes of a Trauma Interdisciplinary Group for Research (TIGR) at a Level 1 trauma center as it relates to increasing research productivity, with specific examples excerpted from an ongoing NIH-funded study. We used a pretest/posttest design with objectives aimed at measuring increases in research productivity following a targeted intervention. A SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis was used to develop the intervention, which included research skill-building activities, accomplished by adding multidisciplinary investigators to an existing NIH-funded project. The NIH project aimed to test the hypothesis that accelerated biologic aging from chronic stress increases baseline inflammation and reduces inflammatory response to trauma (projected n = 150). Pre-TIGR/post-TIGR data related to participant screening, recruitment, consent, and research processes were compared. Research productivity was measured through abstracts, publications, and investigator-initiated projects. Research products increased from 12 to 42 (approximately 400%). Research proposals for federal funding increased from 0 to 3, with success rate of 66%. Participant screenings for the NIH-funded study increased from 40 to 313. Consents increased from 14 to 70. Laboratory service fees were reduced from $300 per participant to $5 per participant. Adding diversity to our scientific team via TIGR was exponentially successful in (1) improving research productivity, (2) reducing research costs, and (3) increasing research products and mentoring activities that the team before TIGR had not entertained. The team is now well positioned to apply for more federally funded projects, and more trauma clinicians are considering research careers than before.

Creating Original Products and Infomercials to Study Rhetorical Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Larrotta, Clarena

2017-01-01

Rhetorical analysis was a required unit of study for college students enrolled in intermediate English as a second language (ESL) composition. Twenty-six students participated in a project creating an original product and its infomercial. The project aimed at increasing student motivation to continue writing essays in English and providing a space…

The Effect of Peer Assessment on Project Performance of Students at Different Learning Levels

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Li, Lan; Gao, Fei

2016-01-01

Peer assessment has been increasingly integrated in educational settings as a strategy to foster student learning. Yet little has been studied about how students at different learning levels may benefit from peer assessment. This study examined how peer-assessment and students' learning levels influenced students' project performance using a…

Linking Languages through a Bilingual Read-Aloud Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lyster, Roy; Collins, Laura; Ballinger, Susan

2009-01-01

The present study was carried out in French immersion classrooms in an urban Quebec school board that is increasingly characterised by the heterogeneity of its French-dominant, English-dominant, and French/English bilingual student population. The study explored the extent to which a bilingual read-aloud project would (1) raise teachers' awareness…

SPEEDIER Project. Preliminary Report on Social Studies Pilot Projects.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Myers, Charles B.; And Others

This preliminary report describes five social studies pilot programs in the counties of Dauphin, Lancaster, Lebanon, and York, Pennsylvania. It is expected that these pilot endeavors will affect educators in the counties served by SPEEDIER as follows: 1) increase understanding of the newer content, ideas, and strategies in the pilot programs; 2)…

Fostering Creativity through Educational Video Game Development Projects: A Study of Contextual and Task Characteristics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Fabricatore, Carlo; López, Ximena

2013-01-01

The increasing demand for creative individuals in the labor market requires well-prepared professionals, capable of enhancing competitiveness through new ideas and innovative actions. Educational programs should, therefore, rely on approaches and learning environments that foster creativity. In this study, video game development projects were used…

The impacts of climate, land use, and demography on fires during the 21st century simulated by CLM-CN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kloster, S.; Mahowald, N. M.; Randerson, J. T.; Lawrence, P. J.

2012-01-01

Landscape fires during the 21st century are expected to change in response to multiple agents of global change. Important controlling factors include climate controls on the length and intensity of the fire season, fuel availability, and fire management, which are already anthropogenically perturbed today and are predicted to change further in the future. An improved understanding of future fires will contribute to an improved ability to project future anthropogenic climate change, as changes in fire activity will in turn impact climate. In the present study we used a coupled-carbon-fire model to investigate how changes in climate, demography, and land use may alter fire emissions. We used climate projections following the SRES A1B scenario from two different climate models (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and CCSM) and changes in population. Land use and harvest rates were prescribed according to the RCP 45 scenario. In response to the combined effect of all these drivers, our model estimated, depending on our choice of climate projection, an increase in future (2075-2099) fire carbon emissions by 17 and 62% compared to present day (1985-2009). The largest increase in fire emissions was predicted for Southern Hemisphere South America for both climate projections. For Northern Hemisphere Africa, a region that contributed significantly to the global total fire carbon emissions, the response varied between a decrease and an increase depending on the climate projection. We disentangled the contribution of the single forcing factors to the overall response by conducting an additional set of simulations in which each factor was individually held constant at pre-industrial levels. The two different projections of future climate change evaluated in this study led to increases in global fire carbon emissions by 22% (CCSM) and 66% (ECHAM5/MPI-OM). The RCP 45 projection of harvest and land use led to a decrease in fire carbon emissions by -5%. The RCP 26 and RCP 60 harvest and landuse projections caused decreases around -20%. Changes in human ignition led to an increase of 20%. When we also included changes in fire management efforts to suppress fires in densely populated areas, global fire carbon emission decreased by -6% in response to changes in population density. We concluded from this study that changes in fire emissions in the future are controlled by multiple interacting factors. Although changes in climate led to an increase in future fire emissions this could be globally counterbalanced by coupled changes in land use, harvest, and demography.

Family welfare and health practices increase after exposure to population education.

PubMed

1994-01-01

Since 1987, the State Resource Center of Jamia Millia Islamia of New Delhi has been implementing a program which integrates population education contents into its literacy education classes for adult learners. Using the core messages on family size, spacing of children, responsible parenthood, right age of marriage, population-related beliefs and customs and population and development, the Center undertook many activities such as: i) integrating population contents in literacy primers, readers and supplementary reading books; ii) development of teaching aids and instructor's resource materials; iii) organization of training for instructors and iv) holding outreach activities such as street corner plays, fairs, etc. To evaluate the impact of the program, the Center undertook an impact survey to measure the level of knowledge, attitude and practices of randomly selected beneficiaries of the project, i.e. 934 learners from 85 literacy learning centers, 5 years after the introduction of the population education program. The study used pre-test and post-test method for collecting data and to compare results. In terms of practice, the study has shown that the respondents having knowledge about family planning methods increased from 67 to 87%, after being exposed to the project's activities. There was also an increase of 61% in cases adopting family planning methods over the pre-measurement level. More importantly, there was not only an increase in awareness of public health and family welfare services but a 137% increase was registered in the use of public health and family welfare facilities for family planning counseling and services. With regard to knowledge and attitude on the various population education messages promoted by the project, the study has shown a 40% increase in "high" knowledge category and 25% increase in favorable attitude after the exposure to the project. full text

Increasing High School Student Interest in Science: An Action Research Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vartuli, Cindy A.

An action research study was conducted to determine how to increase student interest in learning science and pursuing a STEM career. The study began by exploring 10th-grade student and teacher perceptions of student interest in science in order to design an instructional strategy for stimulating student interest in learning and pursuing science. Data for this study included responses from 270 students to an on-line science survey and interviews with 11 students and eight science teachers. The action research intervention included two iterations of the STEM Career Project. The first iteration introduced four chemistry classes to the intervention. The researcher used student reflections and a post-project survey to determine if the intervention had influence on the students' interest in pursuing science. The second iteration was completed by three science teachers who had implemented the intervention with their chemistry classes, using student reflections and post-project surveys, as a way to make further procedural refinements and improvements to the intervention and measures. Findings from the exploratory phase of the study suggested students generally had interest in learning science but increasing that interest required including personally relevant applications and laboratory experiences. The intervention included a student-directed learning module in which students investigated three STEM careers and presented information on one of their chosen careers. The STEM Career Project enabled students to explore career possibilities in order to increase their awareness of STEM careers. Findings from the first iteration of the intervention suggested a positive influence on student interest in learning and pursuing science. The second iteration included modifications to the intervention resulting in support for the findings of the first iteration. Results of the second iteration provided modifications that would allow the project to be used for different academic levels. Insights from conducting the action research study provided the researcher with effective ways to make positive changes in her own teaching praxis and the tools used to improve student awareness of STEM career options.

Projects for increasing job satisfaction and creating a healthy work environment.

PubMed

Brunges, Michele; Foley-Brinza, Christine

2014-12-01

Workplace culture is one of the biggest factors driving employee commitment and engagement. Multiple studies have shown that hospitals will perform better over time if employees are committed to their jobs and engaged in what they do. By creating and implementing multiple projects during a three-year period, a team at the University of Florida Health Shands Hospital, Gainesville, increased job satisfaction. Projects included ensuring meal breaks were offered, creating a serenity area, developing the patient ambassador role, actively addressing bullying and unprofessional behavior, assigning a student mentee to work with staff members on culture change, offering regular fun activities, redesigning the unit, reorganizing schedules to reduce stress, implementing education and training initiatives, establishing a Unit Practice Council, and implementing reward and recognition programs. Survey results and anecdotal evidence suggest that these projects combined to increase employee satisfaction and employee retention rates. Copyright © 2014 AORN, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Motivational project-based laboratory for a common first year electrical engineering course

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nedic, Zorica; Nafalski, Andrew; Machotka, Jan

2010-08-01

Over the past few years many universities worldwide have introduced a common first year for all engineering disciplines. This is despite the opinion of many academics that large classes have negative effects on the learning outcomes of first year students. The University of South Australia is also faced with low motivation amongst engineering students studying non-major courses. In 2006, a project-based laboratory was successfully introduced for first year students enrolled in electrical disciplines, which increased student satisfaction, reduced the attrition rate and improved students' success rate. This paper presents the experiences with the project-based laboratory's implementation in three different projects in the common first year course, Electrical and Energy Systems, where each project aims to increase the motivation of students in one of three disciplines: electrical, mechanical or civil engineering.

U. S. Energy and Economic Growth, 1975--2010

DOE R&D Accomplishments Database

Allen, E. L.; Cooper, C. L.; Edmonds, F. C.; Edmonds, J. A.; Reister, D. B.; Weinberg, A. M.; Whittle, C. E.; Zelby, L. W.

1976-09-01

This study projects economic growth (GNP) and energy demand for the U.S. to the year 2010. The main finding is that both GNP and total energy demand are likely to grow significantly more slowly than has been assumed in most analyses of energy policy. Projections of energy, GNP, and electricity (total and per capita) are summarized, with electricity demand expected to grow more rapidly than total energy demand. Two scenarios designated ''high'' and ''low'' were developed in this study. However, even the ''high'' scenario, 126 quads (q; 1 q equals 10/sup 15/ Btu) in 2000, is much lower than most previous estimates. It is felt that this raises serious questions about fundamental energy and energy R and D policies which, generally, have been based on perceptions of more lavish energy futures. Although the aggregate demands and GNP are projected to increase rather modestly, the energy demands per capita and GNP per capita increase at rates comparable to or even higher than historic rates. The authors believe that the projections developed in this study represent a logical culmination of many trends toward lower growth. These trends have not yet been factored into the older energy projections upon which so much energy policy is based.

Transforming the Daily Life of the Classroom: The District Six Laptop Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Peterson, Lisa

The Community School District Six Laptop Project (New York, NY) was created in order to increase access to technology for families in a low-income area with a large immigrant population. As part of the project, the sixth-grade students in this study received IBM ThinkPads. Trends that appear in the literature on integrating technology into the…

A financing model to solve financial barriers for implementing green building projects.

PubMed

Lee, Sanghyo; Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

2013-01-01

Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained.

A Financing Model to Solve Financial Barriers for Implementing Green Building Projects

PubMed Central

Lee, Baekrae; Kim, Juhyung; Kim, Jaejun

2013-01-01

Along with the growing interest in greenhouse gas reduction, the effect of greenhouse gas energy reduction from implementing green buildings is gaining attention. The government of the Republic of Korea has set green growth as its paradigm for national development, and there is a growing interest in energy saving for green buildings. However, green buildings may have financial barriers that have high initial construction costs and uncertainties about future project value. Under the circumstances, governmental support to attract private funding is necessary to implement green building projects. The objective of this study is to suggest a financing model for facilitating green building projects with a governmental guarantee based on Certified Emission Reduction (CER). In this model, the government provides a guarantee for the increased costs of a green building project in return for CER. And this study presents the validation of the model as well as feasibility for implementing green building project. In addition, the suggested model assumed governmental guarantees for the increased cost, but private guarantees seem to be feasible as well because of the promising value of the guarantee from CER. To do this, certification of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDMs) for green buildings must be obtained. PMID:24376379

Forecasting the personal medical care costs of AIDS from 1988 through 1991.

PubMed Central

Hellinger, F J

1988-01-01

The personal medical care costs of those diagnosed with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in 1988 are forecast to be $2.2 billion, an amount that will increase to $4.5 billion in 1991. This is the first study to include the cost of purchasing azidothymidine (AZT), also called zidovudine, a palliative treatment for AIDS. The forecasts of this study are lower than those reported by Rice and Scitovsky, and other researchers, because the data are more recent and AIDS patients are receiving more care on an outpatient basis and staying in the hospital fewer days. They are also lower because projections for the number of AIDS cases diagnosed in future years are lower than those made by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). This study projects that about 38,000 AIDS cases will be diagnosed in 1988 and 73,000 in 1991. The projections in this study are derived using data on the number of AIDS cases reported to CDC from January 1984 to October 1987, while the CDC projections employed by Rice and Scitovsky were derived using data from June 1981 to May 1986. It is also projected that the lifetime cost of treating an AIDS patient will increase from $57,000 in 1988 to $61,800 in 1991 due to the wider use of AZT. PMID:2836880

Conducting a Multisite Education Research Project: Strategies to Overcome the Barriers to Achieve the Benefits.

PubMed

Beischel, Kelly P; Hart, Julie; Turkelson, Sandra L

2016-01-01

Multisite education research projects have many benefits as well as perceived barriers. In this article, we share our experiences with a multisite education research project and the barriers we overcame to reap the benefits. The outcome of our research resulted in increased rigor, role-modeling professional collaboration, and promotion of future multisite education studies. The strategies presented in this article will help alleviate perceived barriers and ameliorate the process of conducting multisite education research studies.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Golden, Heather E.; Knightes, Christopher D.; Conrads, Paul; Feaster, Toby D.; Davis, Gary M.; Benedict, Stephen T.; Bradley, Paul M.

2013-01-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling.

Projected Changes in Hydrological Extremes in a Cold Region Watershed: Sensitivity of Results to Statistical Methods of Analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dibike, Y. B.; Eum, H. I.; Prowse, T. D.

2017-12-01

Flows originating from alpine dominated cold region watersheds typically experience extended winter low flows followed by spring snowmelt and summer rainfall driven high flows. In a warmer climate, there will be temperature- induced shift in precipitation from snow towards rain as well as changes in snowmelt timing affecting the frequency of extreme high and low flow events which could significantly alter ecosystem services. This study examines the potential changes in the frequency and severity of hydrologic extremes in the Athabasca River watershed in Alberta, Canada based on the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model and selected and statistically downscaled climate change scenario data from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The sensitivity of these projected changes is also examined by applying different extreme flow analysis methods. The hydrological model projections show an overall increase in mean annual streamflow in the watershed and a corresponding shift in the freshet timing to earlier period. Most of the streams are projected to experience increases during the winter and spring seasons and decreases during the summer and early fall seasons, with an overall projected increases in extreme high flows, especially for low frequency events. While the middle and lower parts of the watershed are characterised by projected increases in extreme high flows, the high elevation alpine region is mainly characterised by corresponding decreases in extreme low flow events. However, the magnitude of projected changes in extreme flow varies over a wide range, especially for low frequent events, depending on the climate scenario and period of analysis, and sometimes in a nonlinear way. Nonetheless, the sensitivity of the projected changes to the statistical method of analysis is found to be relatively small compared to the inter-model variability.

Acceptability and satisfaction of project MOVE: A pragmatic feasibility trial aimed at increasing physical activity in female breast cancer survivors

PubMed Central

Pullen, Tanya; Bottorff, Joan L.; Sabiston, Catherine M.; Campbell, Kristin L.; Ellard, Susan L.; Gotay, Carolyn; Fitzpatrick, Kayla; Caperchione, Cristina M.

2018-01-01

Abstract Objective Despite the physical and psychological health benefits associated with physical activity (PA) for breast cancer (BC) survivors, up to 70% of female BC survivors are not meeting minimum recommended PA guidelines. The objective of this study was to evaluate acceptability and satisfaction with Project MOVE, an innovative approach to increase PA among BC survivors through the combination of microgrants and financial incentives. Methods A mixed‐methods design was used. Participants were BC survivors and support individuals with a mean age of 58.5 years. At 6‐month follow‐up, participants completed a program evaluation questionnaire (n = 72) and participated in focus groups (n = 52) to explore their experience with Project MOVE. Results Participants reported that they were satisfied with Project MOVE (86.6%) and that the program was appropriate for BC survivors (96.3%). Four main themes emerged from focus groups: (1) acceptability and satisfaction of Project MOVE, detailing the value of the model in developing tailored group‐base PA programs; (2) the importance of Project MOVE leaders, highlighting the value of a leader that was organized and a good communicator; (3) breaking down barriers with Project MOVE, describing how the program helped to address common BC related barriers; and (4) motivation to MOVE, outlining how the microgrants enabled survivors to be active, while the financial incentive motivated them to increase and maintain their PA. Conclusion The findings provide support for the acceptability of Project MOVE as a strategy for increasing PA among BC survivors. PMID:29409128

Can Observation Skills of Citizen Scientists Be Estimated Using Species Accumulation Curves?

PubMed

Kelling, Steve; Johnston, Alison; Hochachka, Wesley M; Iliff, Marshall; Fink, Daniel; Gerbracht, Jeff; Lagoze, Carl; La Sorte, Frank A; Moore, Travis; Wiggins, Andrea; Wong, Weng-Keen; Wood, Chris; Yu, Jun

2015-01-01

Volunteers are increasingly being recruited into citizen science projects to collect observations for scientific studies. An additional goal of these projects is to engage and educate these volunteers. Thus, there are few barriers to participation resulting in volunteer observers with varying ability to complete the project's tasks. To improve the quality of a citizen science project's outcomes it would be useful to account for inter-observer variation, and to assess the rarely tested presumption that participating in a citizen science projects results in volunteers becoming better observers. Here we present a method for indexing observer variability based on the data routinely submitted by observers participating in the citizen science project eBird, a broad-scale monitoring project in which observers collect and submit lists of the bird species observed while birding. Our method for indexing observer variability uses species accumulation curves, lines that describe how the total number of species reported increase with increasing time spent in collecting observations. We find that differences in species accumulation curves among observers equates to higher rates of species accumulation, particularly for harder-to-identify species, and reveals increased species accumulation rates with continued participation. We suggest that these properties of our analysis provide a measure of observer skill, and that the potential to derive post-hoc data-derived measurements of participant ability should be more widely explored by analysts of data from citizen science projects. We see the potential for inferential results from analyses of citizen science data to be improved by accounting for observer skill.

Acceptability and satisfaction of project MOVE: A pragmatic feasibility trial aimed at increasing physical activity in female breast cancer survivors.

PubMed

Pullen, Tanya; Sharp, Paul; Bottorff, Joan L; Sabiston, Catherine M; Campbell, Kristin L; Ellard, Susan L; Gotay, Carolyn; Fitzpatrick, Kayla; Caperchione, Cristina M

2018-04-01

Despite the physical and psychological health benefits associated with physical activity (PA) for breast cancer (BC) survivors, up to 70% of female BC survivors are not meeting minimum recommended PA guidelines. The objective of this study was to evaluate acceptability and satisfaction with Project MOVE, an innovative approach to increase PA among BC survivors through the combination of microgrants and financial incentives. A mixed-methods design was used. Participants were BC survivors and support individuals with a mean age of 58.5 years. At 6-month follow-up, participants completed a program evaluation questionnaire (n = 72) and participated in focus groups (n = 52) to explore their experience with Project MOVE. Participants reported that they were satisfied with Project MOVE (86.6%) and that the program was appropriate for BC survivors (96.3%). Four main themes emerged from focus groups: (1) acceptability and satisfaction of Project MOVE, detailing the value of the model in developing tailored group-base PA programs; (2) the importance of Project MOVE leaders, highlighting the value of a leader that was organized and a good communicator; (3) breaking down barriers with Project MOVE, describing how the program helped to address common BC related barriers; and (4) motivation to MOVE, outlining how the microgrants enabled survivors to be active, while the financial incentive motivated them to increase and maintain their PA. The findings provide support for the acceptability of Project MOVE as a strategy for increasing PA among BC survivors. © 2018 The Authors. Psycho-Oncology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Enhancing capacity for intern training in the emergency department: the MoLIE project.

PubMed

Brazil, Victoria A; Greenslade, Jaimi H; Brown, Anthony F

2011-02-21

To evaluate an intern educational project, the More Learning for Interns in Emergency (MoLIE) project, designed to increase intern placements in the emergency department (ED). The study was conducted in the ED of the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital, Queensland, in 2008. As well as the usual direct contact with patients, interns had 8 hours per week of "off the floor" structured learning time supervised by consultants. This allowed for an increased number of interns to complete a term in the ED over a 1-year period. The study was evaluated by an intern exit feedback survey and a senior staff survey. Numbers of intern placements in the ED; intern satisfaction with the project; senior medical staff satisfaction with interns' skills and performance assessments. The number of interns completing a term in the ED increased from 65 in 2007 to 90 in 2008. Overall, the 90 interns surveyed were highly satisfied with their training. Most agreed or strongly agreed that the sessions were relevant and covered the right mix of clinical and professional issues. Most of the 12 senior staff surveyed felt that the participating interns performed slightly or much better than interns in previous years, and that their experience as supervisors and overall patient care were improved. The project successfully combined increased intern numbers with educational outcomes that were well perceived by interns and senior staff, without adversely affecting service delivery or supervision workload in the ED.

Geriatric cancer trends in the Middle-East: Findings from Lebanese cancer projections until 2025.

PubMed

Haddad, Fady Gh; Kattan, Joseph; Kourie, Hampig R; El Rassy, Elie; Assi, Tarek; Adib, Salim M

2018-03-01

By 2020, 70% of all cancers will occur in patients aged 65years and older, causing an increase in related morbidity, mortality, and cost. This study projects cancer trends in the elderly population in Lebanon, a country experiencing accelerating aging trends. Findings will guide future policy decisions regarding geriatric oncology in Lebanon and the surrounding Arab world. Cancer incidence rates were derived for men and women 65years and above, divided into three age groups: 65-69years, 70-74years, and 75years and above. Raw data were obtained from the National Cancer Registry reports 2003-2010. The eight consecutive year data were used to project the incidence until 2025 using a logarithmic model. The Average Annual Percent Change in incidence rates was calculated to determine whether it would significantly increase, decrease, or remain stable over time. Incidence rates are projected to increase significantly in all age groups of both genders until 2025. In men, the fastest rise is expected in prostate cancer, followed by bladder, lung, colorectal, and NHL. In women, the rise will be fastest in breast, followed by colorectal, lung, NHL, and ovary. Projected rates increase faster in the "younger" age group 65-69 compared to the "oldest" ≥75, both in men and women. Only kidney and liver cancers continue to rise significantly after 75. Cancer incidence is projected to increase in individuals between 65 and 74years of age. Lebanese and Middle Eastern physicians must implement adapted therapeutic strategies in the management of the increasing caseload among frail, elderly patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Poster — Thur Eve — 01: The effect of the number of projections on MTF and CNR in Compton scatter tomography

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Chighvinadze, T; Pistorius, S; CancerCare Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB

2014-08-15

Purpose: To investigate the dependence of the reconstructed image quality on the number of projections in multi-projection Compton scatter tomography (MPCST). The conventional relationship between the projection number used for reconstruction and reconstructed image quality pertained to CT does not necessarily apply to MPCST, which can produce images from a single projection if the detectors have sufficiently high energy and spatial resolution. Methods: The electron density image was obtained using filtered-backprojection of the scatter signal over circular arcs formed using Compton equation. The behavior of the reconstructed image quality as a function of the projection number was evaluated through analyticalmore » simulations and characterized by CNR and MTF. Results: The increase of the projection number improves the contrast with this dependence being a function of fluence. The number of projections required to approach the asymptotic maximum contrast decreases as the fluence increases. Increasing projection number increases the CNR but not spatial resolution. Conclusions: For MPCST using a 500eV energy resolution and a 2×2mm{sup 2} size detector, an adequate image quality can be obtained with a small number of projections provided the incident fluence is high enough. This is conceptually different from conventional CT where a minimum number of projections is required to obtain an adequate image quality. While increasing projection number, even for the lowest dose value, the CNR increases even though the number of photons per projection decreases. The spatial resolution of the image is improved by increasing the sampling within a projection rather than by increasing the number of projections.« less

The Bridge Project: Connecting Home, School, and Community for Mexican Immigrant Children

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McElvain, Cheryl Marie

2015-01-01

This study examines the academic and psychosocial effects of the Bridge Project after-school program on 25 prekindergarten through 6th-grade English language learner Mexican immigrant children and their families living in an affordable housing complex in the San Francisco Bay Area. The results of the study show that the program increased the…

Efficacy, Outcomes, and Empowerment Evaluation of a School District NET Project. Research Brief.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller-Whitehead, Marie

This study addressed the efficacy and outcomes of a U.S. Department of Agriculture Nutrition Education Training (NET) project designed to increase awareness of health risk and wellness factors for grade 9 high school students. The study also considered the empowerment fostered by the program and measured changes in the health and nutrition…

The Development of a Computer Model for Projecting Statewide College Enrollments: A Preliminary Study.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rensselaer Research Corp., Troy, NY.

The purpose of this study was to develop the schema and methodology for the construction of a computerized mathematical model designed to project college and university enrollments in New York State and to meet the future increased demands of higher education planners. This preliminary report describes the main structure of the proposed computer…

Factors Impacting Academic Yearly Progress Success in Mathematics Achievement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Carter, Lauren

2010-01-01

The demands of No Child Left Behind (NCLB) increase each year, requiring all students to be proficient in mathematics by 2014. The county in this project study will not meet requirements of NCLB by 2014 if current trends continue. The guiding research question for this project study investigated the most effective way to meet the needs of all…

Changes in antiretroviral therapy guidelines: implications for public health policy and public purses.

PubMed

Hamilton, Alex; Garcia-Calleja, Jesus M; Vitoria, Marco; Gilks, Charles; Souteyrand, Yves; De Cock, Kevin; Crowley, Siobhan

2010-10-01

The World Health Organization (WHO) published a revision of the antiretroviral therapy (ART) guidelines and now recommends ART for all those with a CD4 cell count ≤350/mm(3), for people with HIV and active tuberculosis (TB) or chronic active hepatitis B irrespective of CD4 cell count and all HIV-positive pregnant women. A study was undertaken to estimate the impact of the new guidelines using four countries as examples. The current WHO/UNAIDS country projections were accessed based on the 2007 estimates for Zambia, Kenya, Cameroon and Vietnam. New projections were created using Spectrum. CD4 progression rates to need for ART were modified and compared with the baseline projections. The pattern of increased need for treatment is similar across the four projections. Initiating treatment at a CD4 count <250/mm(3) will increase the need for treatment by a median of 22% immediately, initiating ART at a CD4 count <350/mm(3) increases the need for treatment by a median of 60%, and the need for treatment doubles if ART is commenced at a CD4 count <500/mm(3). Initiating ART at a CD4 cell count <250/mm(3) would increase the need for treatment by a median of around 15% in 2012; initiating treatment at a CD4 count <350/mm(3) increases the need for treatment by a median of 42% across the same projections and about 84% if CD4 <500/mm(3) was used. The projections indicate that initiating ART earlier in the course of the disease by increasing the threshold for the initiation of ART would increase the numbers of adults in need of treatment immediately and in the future.

The Drawbacks of Project Funding for Epistemic Innovation: Comparing Institutional Affordances and Constraints of Different Types of Research Funding.

PubMed

Franssen, Thomas; Scholten, Wout; Hessels, Laurens K; de Rijcke, Sarah

2018-01-01

Over the past decades, science funding shows a shift from recurrent block funding towards project funding mechanisms. However, our knowledge of how project funding arrangements influence the organizational and epistemic properties of research is limited. To study this relation, a bridge between science policy studies and science studies is necessary. Recent studies have analyzed the relation between the affordances and constraints of project grants and the epistemic properties of research. However, the potentially very different affordances and constraints of funding arrangements such as awards, prizes and fellowships, have not yet been taken into account. Drawing on eight case studies of funding arrangements in high performing Dutch research groups, this study compares the institutional affordances and constraints of prizes with those of project grants and their effects on organizational and epistemic properties of research. We argue that the prize case studies diverge from project-funded research in three ways: 1) a more flexible use, and adaptation of use, of funds during the research process compared to project grants; 2) investments in the larger organization which have effects beyond the research project itself; and 3), closely related, greater deviation from epistemic and organizational standards. The increasing dominance of project funding arrangements in Western science systems is therefore argued to be problematic in light of epistemic and organizational innovation. Funding arrangements that offer funding without scholars having to submit a project-proposal remain crucial to support researchers and research groups to deviate from epistemic and organizational standards.

University students with learning disabilities advocating for change.

PubMed

Roer-Strier, D

2002-11-20

In recent decades Western psychology has conceptualized learning disabilities (LD) in terms of deficits and such related 'social emotional issues' as insecurity, low self-esteem and social isolation that can be rehabilitated through combined remedial teaching and psychological intervention. With increasing advocacy and legislation on behalf of people with disabilities in the US, UK and Australia, more resources are being made available to students with LD in institutions of higher education. Due to this increase in the quantity of services, written programmes and accommodations made to their needs, increased numbers of students with LD have been graduating successfully from institutions of higher education. This paper describes an option for treating students with LD that is based on a theoretical perspective that understands these students as an excluded population and emphasizes the importance of their empowerment. A project involving social work students with LD at Hebrew University in Jerusalem is presented as a case study. Case-study investigation, one of the common methods of qualitative research, explores social and human problems in their natural context. A 6-year evaluation of this project was conducted based on questionnaires, focus groups, documentation of all activities related to the project, in-depth interviews and outcome measures. The results suggest that the project developed in three stages: raising awareness, building partnerships, and lobbying for rights and services. Outcome measures indicate that the project was successful in lowering dropout rates and improving students' academic achievement. Analysis of interviews with students suggests that the project positively affected the students' perceptions by helping them reframe the social and emotional connotations of their learning disability. Students reported marked social and emotional change, including reduced stress and anxiety levels and increased self-esteem. Empowerment practices that are based on partnership, participation, advocacy and social change provide an alternative to rehabilitation via individual therapy.

Leadership in workplace health promotion projects: 1- and 2-year effects on long-term work attendance.

PubMed

Dellve, Lotta; Skagert, Katrin; Vilhelmsson, Rebecka

2007-10-01

Despite the acknowledged role of leadership in the psychosocial work environment, few studies focus on how leadership qualities and strategies may act as key processes of importance to positive effects of workplace health promotion (WHP). The aim of this study was to increase knowledge about how leadership qualities and strategies in WHP projects influence employees' long-term work attendance. The 1- and 2-year effect of leadership on the prevalence of long-term work attendance among municipal human service workers (n = 3 275) was analysed using 3-year register-based data on sick leave, questionnaires and a qualitative categorization of each unit. Increased leadership qualities, especially where leaders used rewards, recognition and respect, were associated with higher prevalence of work attendance at follow-up [PR 1.42 (1.20-1.69)]. Leaders' strategies and views on work-related health had a significant impact on increased work attendance in projects that had goals clearly focusing on changeable factors [1.36 (1.11-1.67)], in multi-focused projects [1.60 (1.24-2.04)] and in projects aimed to increase employees' awareness of their health. Workplace health promotion strategies with a single focus on strengthening individual, professional or organizational resources were negatively associated with work attendance. A higher proportion of employee work attendance was also seen in units whose leaders viewed the organization or the society (rather than individual workers) as responsible for the high rate of sick leave. Leadership, WHP strategies and leaders' attitudes towards employee work-related health have importance for implementation processes, as well as affecting employee work attendance. In this study, multi-focused WHP interventions had the largest effect on work attendance.

Investigation of the probability of concurrent drought events between the water source and destination regions of China's water diversion project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Xiaomang; Luo, Yuzhou; Yang, Tiantian; Liang, Kang; Zhang, Minghua; Liu, Changming

2015-10-01

In this study, we investigate the concurrent drought probability between the water source and destination regions of the central route of China's South to North Water Diversion Project. We find that both regions have been drying from 1960 to 2013. The estimated return period of concurrent drought events in both regions is 11 years. However, since 1997, these regions have experienced 5 years of simultaneous drought. The projection results of global climate models show that the probability of concurrent drought events is highly likely to increase during 2020 to 2050. The increasing concurrent drought events will challenge the success of the water diversion project, which is a strategic attempt to resolve the water crisis of North China Plain. The data suggest great urgency in preparing adaptive measures to ensure the long-term sustainable operation of the water diversion project.

Long Frontal Projections Help Battus philenor (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) Larvae Find Host Plants.

PubMed

Kandori, Ikuo; Tsuchihara, Kazuko; Suzuki, Taichi A; Yokoi, Tomoyuki; Papaj, Daniel R

2015-01-01

Animals sometimes develop conspicuous projections on or near their heads as, e.g., weaponry, burrowing or digging tools, and probes to search for resources. The frontal projections that insects generally use to locate and assess resources are segmented appendages, including antennae, maxillary palps, and labial palps. There is no evidence to date that arthropods, including insects, use projections other than true segmental appendages to locate food. In this regard, it is noteworthy that some butterfly larvae possess a pair of long antenna-like projections on or near their heads. To date, the function of these projections has not been established. Larvae of pipevine swallowtail butterflies Battus philenor (Papilionidae) have a pair of long frontal fleshy projections that, like insect antennae generally, can be actively moved. In this study, we evaluated the possible function of this pair of long moveable frontal projections. In laboratory assays, both frontal projections and lateral ocelli were shown to increase the frequency with which search larvae found plants. The frontal projections increased finding of host and non-host plants equally, suggesting that frontal projections do not detect host-specific chemical cues. Detailed SEM study showed that putative mechanosensillae are distributed all around the frontal as well as other projections. Taken together, our findings suggest that the frontal projections and associated mechanosensillae act as vertical object detectors to obtain tactile information that, together with visual information from lateral ocelli and presumably chemical information from antennae and mouthparts, help larvae to find host plants. Field observations indicate that host plants are small and scattered in southern Arizona locations. Larvae must therefore find multiple host plants to complete development and face significant challenges in doing so. The frontal projections may thus be an adaptation for finding a scarce resource before starving to death. This is the first evidence that arthropods use projections other than true segmental appendages such as antennae, mouthparts and legs, to locate food resources.

Long Frontal Projections Help Battus philenor (Lepidoptera: Papilionidae) Larvae Find Host Plants

PubMed Central

Kandori, Ikuo; Tsuchihara, Kazuko; Suzuki, Taichi A.; Yokoi, Tomoyuki; Papaj, Daniel R.

2015-01-01

Animals sometimes develop conspicuous projections on or near their heads as, e.g., weaponry, burrowing or digging tools, and probes to search for resources. The frontal projections that insects generally use to locate and assess resources are segmented appendages, including antennae, maxillary palps, and labial palps. There is no evidence to date that arthropods, including insects, use projections other than true segmental appendages to locate food. In this regard, it is noteworthy that some butterfly larvae possess a pair of long antenna-like projections on or near their heads. To date, the function of these projections has not been established. Larvae of pipevine swallowtail butterflies Battus philenor (Papilionidae) have a pair of long frontal fleshy projections that, like insect antennae generally, can be actively moved. In this study, we evaluated the possible function of this pair of long moveable frontal projections. In laboratory assays, both frontal projections and lateral ocelli were shown to increase the frequency with which search larvae found plants. The frontal projections increased finding of host and non-host plants equally, suggesting that frontal projections do not detect host-specific chemical cues. Detailed SEM study showed that putative mechanosensillae are distributed all around the frontal as well as other projections. Taken together, our findings suggest that the frontal projections and associated mechanosensillae act as vertical object detectors to obtain tactile information that, together with visual information from lateral ocelli and presumably chemical information from antennae and mouthparts, help larvae to find host plants. Field observations indicate that host plants are small and scattered in southern Arizona locations. Larvae must therefore find multiple host plants to complete development and face significant challenges in doing so. The frontal projections may thus be an adaptation for finding a scarce resource before starving to death. This is the first evidence that arthropods use projections other than true segmental appendages such as antennae, mouthparts and legs, to locate food resources. PMID:26222554

Impact of possible climate changes on river runoff under different natural conditions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gusev, Yeugeniy M.; Nasonova, Olga N.; Kovalev, Evgeny E.; Ayzel, Georgy V.

2018-06-01

The present study was carried out within the framework of the International Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) for 11 large river basins located in different continents of the globe under a wide variety of natural conditions. The aim of the study was to investigate possible changes in various characteristics of annual river runoff (mean values, standard deviations, frequency of extreme annual runoff) up to 2100 on the basis of application of the land surface model SWAP and meteorological projections simulated by five General Circulation Models (GCMs) according to four RCP scenarios. Analysis of the obtained results has shown that changes in climatic runoff are different (both in magnitude and sign) for the river basins located in different regions of the planet due to differences in natural (primarily climatic) conditions. The climatic elasticities of river runoff to changes in air temperature and precipitation were estimated that makes it possible, as the first approximation, to project changes in climatic values of annual runoff, using the projected changes in mean annual air temperature and annual precipitation for the river basins. It was found that for most rivers under study, the frequency of occurrence of extreme runoff values increases. This is true both for extremely high runoff (when the projected climatic runoff increases) and for extremely low values (when the projected climatic runoff decreases).

Methane emission from ruminants and solid waste: A critical analysis of baseline and mitigation projections for climate and policy studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Matthews, E.

2012-12-01

Current and projected estimates of methane (CH4) emission from anthropogenic sources are numerous but largely unexamined or compared. Presented here is a critical appraisal of CH4 projections used in climate-chemistry and policy studies. We compare emissions for major CH4 sources from several groups, including our own new data and RCP projections developed for climate-chemistry models for the next IPCC Assessment Report (AR5). We focus on current and projected baseline and mitigation emissions from ruminant animals and solid waste that are both predicted to rise dramatically in coming decades, driven primarily by developing countries. For waste, drivers include increasing urban populations, higher per capita waste generation due to economic growth and increasing landfilling rates. Analysis of a new global data base detailing waste composition, collection and disposal indicates that IPCC-based methodologies and default data overestimate CH4 emission for the current period which cascades into substantial overestimates in future projections. CH4 emission from solid waste is estimated to be ~10-15 Tg CH4/yr currently rather than the ~35 Tg/yr often reported in the literature. Moreover, emissions from developing countries are unlikely to rise rapidly in coming decades because new management approaches, such as sanitary landfills, that would increase emissions are maladapted to infrastructures in these countries and therefore unlikely to be implemented. The low current emission associated with solid waste (~10 Tg), together with future modest growth, implies that mitigation of waste-related CH4 emission is a poor candidate for slowing global warming. In the case of ruminant animals (~90 Tg CH4/yr currently), the dominant assumption driving future trajectories of CH4 emission is a substantial increase in meat and dairy consumption in developing countries to be satisfied by growing animal populations. Unlike solid waste, current ruminant emissions among studies exhibit a narrow range that does not necessarily signal low uncertainty but rather a reliance on similar animal statistics and emission factors. The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) projects 2000-2030 growth rates of livestock for most developing countries at 2% to >3% annually. However, the assumption of rapidly rising meat consumption is not supported by current trends nor by resource availability. For example, increased meat consumption in China and other developing countries is poultry and pork that do not affect CH4 emissions, suggesting that the rapid growth projected for all animals, boosting growth in CH4 emission, will not occur. From a resource standpoint, large increases in cattle, sheep and goat populations, especially for African countries (~60% by 2030), are not supportable on arid grazing lands that require very low stocking rates and semi-nomadic management. Increases projected for African animal populations would require either that about 2/3 more animals are grazed on increasingly drier lands or that all non-forested areas become grazing lands. Similar to solid waste, future methane emission from ruminant animals is likely to grow modestly although animals are not a likely candidate for CH4 mitigation due to their dispersed distribution throughout widely varying agricultural systems under very local management.

The necessary contradictions of 'community-led' health promotion: a case study of HIV prevention in an Indian red light district.

PubMed

Cornish, Flora; Ghosh, Riddhi

2007-01-01

Health promotion interventions with marginalised groups are increasingly expected to demonstrate genuine community participation in their design and delivery. However, ideals of egalitarian democratic participation are far removed from the starting point of the hierarchical and exploitative social relations that typically characterise marginalised communities. What scope is there for health promotion projects to implement ideals of community leadership within the realities of marginalisation and inequality? We examine how the Sonagachi Project, a successful sex-worker-led HIV prevention project in India, has engaged with the unequal social relations in which it is embedded. Our ethnographic study is based on observation of the Project's participatory activities and 39 interviews with a range of its stakeholders (including sex worker employees of the Project, non-sex-worker development professionals, brothel managers, sex workers' clients). The analysis shows that the project is deeply shaped by its relationships with non-sex-worker interest groups. In order to be permitted access to the red light district, it has had to accommodate the interests of local men's clubs and brothel managers. The economic and organisational capacity to run such a project has depended upon the direct input of development professionals and funding agencies. Thus, the 'community' that leads this project is much wider than a local grouping of marginalised sex workers. We argue that, given existing power relations, the engagement with other interest groups was necessary to the project's success. Moreover, as the project has developed, sex workers' interests and leadership have gained increasing prominence. We suggest that existing optimistic expectations of participation inhibit acknowledgement of the troubling work of balancing power relations. Rather than denying such power relations, projects should be expected to plan for them.

Efficient Project Delivery Using Lean Principles - An Indian Case Study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kovvuri, P. Ramachandra Reddy; Sawhney, Anil; Ahuja, Ritu; Sreekumar, Aiswarya

2016-03-01

Construction industry in India is growing at a rapid pace. Along with this growth, the industry is facing numerous challenges that are making delivery of projects inefficient. Experts believe that capacity constraints in the industry need to be addressed immediately. Government has recommended `introduction of efficient technologies and modern management techniques' to increase the productivity of the industry. In this context, lean principles can act as a lever to make project delivery more efficient and provide the much needed impetus to the Indian construction sector. Around the globe lean principles are showing positive results on the projects. Project teams are reporting improvements in construction time, cost and quality along with softer benefits of enhanced collaboration, coordination and trust in project teams. Can adoption of lean principles provide similar benefits in the Indian construction sector? This research was conducted to answer this question. Using an action research approach a key lean construction tool called Last Planner System (LPS) was tested on a large Indian construction project. The work described in this work investigates the improvements achieved in project delivery by adopting LPS in Indian construction sector. Comparison in pre- and post-implementation data demonstrates increase in the certainty of work-flow and improves schedule compliance. This is measured through a simple LPS metric called percent plan complete. Explicit improvements in schedule performance are seen during 8 week LPS implementation along with implicit improvements in coordination, collaboration and trust in the project team. This work reports the findings of LPS implementation on the case study project outlining the barriers and drivers to adoption, strategies needed to ensure successful implementation and roadmap for implementation. Based on the findings the authors envision that lean construction can make project delivery more efficient in India.

Tissue Expander Overfilling: Achieving New Dimensions of Customization in Breast Reconstruction.

PubMed

Treiser, Matthew D; Lahair, Tracy; Carty, Matthew J

2016-02-01

Overfill of tissue expanders is a commonly used modality to achieve customized dimensions in breast reconstruction. Little formal study of the dynamics of hyperexpansion of these devices has been performed to date, however. Overfill trials were performed using both Natrelle 133 MV and Mentor 8200 tissue expanders of indicated capacities ranging from 250 to 800 mL. Each expander was initially filled to its indicated capacity with normal water and then injected in regular increments to 400% overfill. Measurements of each expander's width, height, and projection were made at indicated capacity and with each successive incremental overfill injection, and these results were then recorded, collated, and analyzed. Over the first 50% overfill, all expanders demonstrated a logarithmic increase in projection (mean increase, 143 ± 9%) while maintaining essentially stable base dimensions. Overfill levels in excess of 50% were accompanied by linear increases in height, width, and projection, during which projection approached, but never equaled, base dimensions. Stress versus strain analyses demonstrated nonlinear biomechanical dynamics during the first 50% overfill, followed by standard elastic dynamics up to 400% overfill. At no point during the study, did expander tensions outstrip elastic properties, thereby explaining the lack of device rupture. Through overfilling, tunable geometries of tissue expanders can be accessed that may provide for increasing customization of reconstructions, particularly at overfill volumes up to 50% over indicated capacity. This study should serve to guide tissue expander selection and fill volumes that surgeons may implement in obtaining ideal reconstructed breast shapes.

Large scale afforestation projects mitigate degradation and increase the stability of the karst ecosystems in southwest China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yue, Y.; Tong, X.; Wang, K.; Fensholt, R.; Brandt, M.

2017-12-01

With the aim to combat desertification and improve the ecological environment, mega-engineering afforestation projects have been launched in the karst regions of southwest China around the turn of the new millennium. A positive impact of these projects on vegetation cover has been shown, however, it remains unclear if conservation efforts have been able to effectively restore ecosystem properties and reduce the sensitivity of the karst ecosystem to climate variations at large scales. Here we use passive microwave and optical satellite time series data combined with the ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS and show widespread increase in vegetation cover with a clear demarcation at the Chinese national border contrasting the conditions of neighboring countries. We apply a breakpoint detection to identify permanent changes in vegetation time series and assess the vegetation's sensitivity against climate before and after the breakpoints. A majority (74%) of the breakpoints were detected between 2001 and 2004 and are remarkably in line with the implementation and spatial extent of the Grain to Green project. We stratify the counties of the study area into four groups according to the extent of Grain to Green conservation areas and find distinct differences between the groups. Vegetation trends are similar prior to afforestation activities (1982-2000), but clearly diverge at a later stage, following the spatial extent of conservation areas. Moreover, vegetation cover dynamics were increasingly decoupled from climatic influence in areas of high conservation efforts. Whereas both vegetation resilience and resistance were considerably improved in areas with large conservation efforts thereby showing an increase in ecosystem stability, ongoing degradation and an amplified sensitivity to climate variability was found in areas with limited project implementation. Our study concludes that large scale conservation projects can regionally contribute to a greening Earth and are able to mitigate desertification by increasing the vegetation cover and reducing the ecosystem sensitivity to climate change, however, degradation remains a serious issue in the karst ecosystem of southwest China.

Projection of temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease in beijing under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios.

PubMed

Zhang, Boya; Li, Guoxing; Ma, Yue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Human health faces unprecedented challenges caused by climate change. Thus, studies of the effect of temperature change on total mortality have been conducted in numerous countries. However, few of those studies focused on temperature-related mortality due to cardiovascular disease (CVD) or considered future population changes and adaptation to climate change. We present herein a projection of temperature-related mortality due to CVD under different climate change, population, and adaptation scenarios in Beijing, a megacity in China. To this end, 19 global circulation models (GCMs), 3 representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 3 socioeconomic pathways, together with generalized linear models and distributed lag non-linear models, were used to project future temperature-related CVD mortality during periods centered around the years 2050 and 2070. The number of temperature-related CVD deaths in Beijing is projected to increase by 3.5-10.2% under different RCP scenarios compared with that during the baseline period. Using the same GCM, the future daily maximum temperatures projected using the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 scenarios showed a gradually increasing trend. When population change is considered, the annual rate of increase in temperature-related CVD deaths was up to fivefold greater than that under no-population-change scenarios. The decrease in the number of cold-related deaths did not compensate for the increase in that of heat-related deaths, leading to a general increase in the number of temperature-related deaths due to CVD in Beijing. In addition, adaptation to climate change may enhance rather than ameliorate the effect of climate change, as the increase in cold-related CVD mortality greater than the decrease in heat-related CVD mortality in the adaptation scenarios will result in an increase in the total number of temperature-related CVD mortalities. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

76 FR 48798 - Agency Information Collection Activities: Proposed Collection; Comment Request-Study of the...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2011-08-09

... Nutrition Assistance Program Participation Among Medicare's Extra Help Population Pilot Projects AGENCY... Participation Among Medicare's Extra Help Population Pilot Projects. DATES: Written comments must be received on... Efforts to Increase Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation Among Medicare's Extra Help...

A study on the impact of parameter uncertainty on the emission-based ranking of transportation projects.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-01-01

With the growing concern with air quality levels and, hence, the livability of urban regions in the nation, it has become increasingly common to incorporate vehicular emission considerations in the ranking of transportation projects. Network assignme...

Feasibility study report for distribution dispatching center project 2nd stage for the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA), Bangkok, Thailand, June 1998. Export trade information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

NONE

The study concerns the Provincial Electricity Authority, a state agency within the Ministry of Interior that supplies electricity to 73 of Thailand`s provinces. The primary objective of this study is to help increase the ability of the Authority to meet the rapidly increasing demand for electric power within the Kingdom of Thailand in a reliable, safe and economic manner. This is Volume 1 and it consists of the following: (1) introduction; (2) assessment; (3) conceptual design; (4) economic and financial evaluation; (5) project plan; (6) Thailand impact; (7) industry review; (8) conclusion; and appendices.

Comparison of SPI and SPEI indices for Drought Characterization under Climate Change Scenario in India

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gupta, V.; Jain, M. K.

2017-12-01

Many drought indices are available for quantifying and characterizing the drought events. Selection of a particular drought index could influence the outcome of the study. In this study, we compared two drought indices namely, Standardized precipitation index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) under climate change condition. Data from 7 RCM models namely, CCCma-CanESM2, CERFACS-CNRM-CM5, GFDL-ESM2M, MOHC-HadGEM2, MIROC-MIROC5, MPI-ESM-LR and MPI-ESM-MR for RCP 4.5 scenario have been used to calculate 12 month SPI and SPEI values. L-moments which provides robust distribution parameter estimation, have been used to identify best fit distribution for projected data at each grid point for each month. Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope test have been used to detect trends in drought severity, duration, peak, and interval between drought events. Results of this study reveal that SPI shows decreasing trends in drought severity, duration and peak with negative Sen's slope, however, the SPEI shows increasing trends of severity, duration and peak with a positive Sen's slope for almost all over India. The analysis reveals that projected percentage of drought affected area based on SPI in the first half of the 21st century is higher compared to those obtained using SPEI, however for the second half of the 21st century, the projected drought affected computed using SPEI is higher compared to the corresponding area obtained using SPI. Decrease in droughts severity, duration and peaks in SPI analysis could be attributed to projected increase in monsoon rainfall in Indian Subcontinent during second half of 21st century however, SPI was found incapable to account the increase in temperature thus neglecting the drying due to increased evapotranspiration whereas SPEI shows significant drying in Indian subcontinent on account of increasing trend in temperature observed in projected future RCM scenarios.

Projections of hepatitis A virus infection associated with flood events by 2020 and 2030 in Anhui Province, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gao, Lu; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Guoyong; Liu, Qiyong; Wang, Changke; Jiang, Baofa

2016-12-01

Assessing and responding to health risk of climate change is important because of its impact on the natural and societal ecosystems. More frequent and severe flood events will occur in China due to climate change. Given that population is projected to increase, more people will be vulnerable to flood events, which may lead to an increased incidence of HAV infection in the future. This population-based study is going to project the future health burden of HAV infection associated with flood events in Huai River Basin of China. The study area covered four cities of Anhui province in China, where flood events were frequent. Time-series adjusted Poisson regression model was developed to quantify the risks of flood events on HAV infection based on the number of daily cases during summer seasons from 2005 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Projections of HAV infection in 2020 and 2030 were estimated based on the scenarios of flood events and demographic data. Poisson regression model suggested that compared with the periods without flood events, the risks of severe flood events for HAV infection were significant (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.05-1.55), while risks were not significant from moderate flood events (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.72-1.87) and mild flood events (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI 0.87-1.48). Using the 2010 baseline data and the flood event scenarios (one severe flood event), increased incidence of HAV infection were estimated to be between 0.126/105 and 0.127/105 for 2020. Similarly, the increased HAV infection incidence for 2030 was projected to be between 0.382/105 and 0.399/105. Our study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030. The results have implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infection during future flood events.

Multispecies, Integrative GWAS for Focal Segmental Glomerulosclerosis

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-09-01

project are to identify genetic determinants of focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) using genomewide association studies in mouse strains. We have... methodology used shall be provided. As the project progresses to completion, the emphasis in reporting in this section should shift from reporting...development” activities result in increased knowledge or skill in one’s area of expertise and may include workshops, conferences, seminars, study

World Class Schools: Some Methodological and Substantive Findings and Implications of the International School Effectiveness Research Project (ISERP)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reynolds, David

2006-01-01

An outline is given of the context in which The International School Effectiveness Research Project (ISERP) was designed and it is argued that the deficiencies of existing studies and the increased internationalization of education makes the more rigorous approach of ISERP essential. A number of methodological lessons from the study are given,…

Projected loss of soil organic carbon in temperate agricultural soils in the 21st century: effects of climate change and carbon input trends

PubMed Central

Wiesmeier, Martin; Poeplau, Christopher; Sierra, Carlos A.; Maier, Harald; Frühauf, Cathleen; Hübner, Rico; Kühnel, Anna; Spörlein, Peter; Geuß, Uwe; Hangen, Edzard; Schilling, Bernd; von Lützow, Margit; Kögel-Knabner, Ingrid

2016-01-01

Climate change and stagnating crop yields may cause a decline of SOC stocks in agricultural soils leading to considerable CO2 emissions and reduced agricultural productivity. Regional model-based SOC projections are needed to evaluate these potential risks. In this study, we simulated the future SOC development in cropland and grassland soils of Bavaria in the 21st century. Soils from 51 study sites representing the most important soil classes of Central Europe were fractionated and derived SOC pools were used to initialize the RothC soil carbon model. For each site, long-term C inputs were determined using the C allocation method. Model runs were performed for three different C input scenarios as a realistic range of projected yield development. Our modelling approach revealed substantial SOC decreases of 11–16% under an expected mean temperature increase of 3.3 °C assuming unchanged C inputs. For the scenario of 20% reduced C inputs, agricultural SOC stocks are projected to decline by 19–24%. Remarkably, even the optimistic scenario of 20% increased C inputs led to SOC decreases of 3–8%. Projected SOC changes largely differed among investigated soil classes. Our results indicated that C inputs have to increase by 29% to maintain present SOC stocks in agricultural soils. PMID:27585648

"Global warming, continental drying? Interpreting projected aridity changes over land under climate change"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Berg, Alexis

2017-04-01

In recent years, a number of studies have suggested that, as climate warms, the land surface will globally become more arid. Such results usually rely on drought or aridity diagnostics, such as the Palmer Drought Severity Index or the Aridity Index (ratio of precipitation over potential evapotranspiration, PET), applied to climate model projections of surface climate. From a global perspective, the projected widespread drying of the land surface is generally interpreted as the result of the dominant, ubiquitous warming-induced PET increase, which overwhelms the slight overall precipitation increase projected over land. However, several lines of evidence, based on (paleo)observations and climate model projections, raise questions regarding this interpretation of terrestrial climate change. In this talk, I will review elements of the literature supporting these different perspectives, and will present recent results based on CMIP5 climate model projections regarding changes in aridity over land that shed some light on this discussion. Central to the interpretation of projected land aridity changes is the understanding of projected PET trends over land and their link with changes in other variables of the terrestrial water cycle (ET, soil moisture) and surface climate in the context of the coupled land-atmosphere system.

Can a quality improvement project impact maternal and child health outcomes at scale in northern Ghana?

PubMed

Singh, Kavita; Brodish, Paul; Speizer, Ilene; Barker, Pierre; Amenga-Etego, Issac; Dasoberi, Ireneous; Kanyoke, Ernest; Boadu, Eric A; Yabang, Elma; Sodzi-Tettey, Sodzi

2016-06-16

Quality improvement (QI) interventions are becoming more common in low- and middle-income countries, yet few studies have presented impact evaluations of these approaches. In this paper, we present an impact evaluation of a scale-up phase of 'Project Fives Alive!', a QI intervention in Ghana that aims to improve maternal and child health outcomes. 'Project Fives Alive!' employed a QI methodology to recognize barriers to care-seeking and care provision at the facility level and then to identify, test and implement simple and low-cost local solutions that address the barriers. A quasi-experimental design, multivariable interrupted time series analysis, with data coming from 744 health facilities and controlling for potential confounding factors, was used to study the effect of the project. The key independent variables were the change categories (interventions implemented) and implementation phase - Wave 2a (early phase) versus Wave 2b (later phase). The outcomes studied were early antenatal care (ANC), skilled delivery, facility-level under-five mortality and attendance of underweight infants at child welfare clinics. We stratified the analysis by facility type, namely health posts, health centres and hospitals. Several of the specific change categories were significantly associated with improved outcomes. For example, three of five change categories (early ANC, four or more ANC visits and skilled delivery/immediate postnatal care (PNC)) for health posts and two of five change categories (health education and triage) for hospitals were associated with increased skilled delivery. These change categories were associated with increases in skilled delivery varying from 28% to 58%. PNC changes for health posts and health centres were associated with greater attendance of underweight infants at child welfare clinics. The triage change category was associated with increased early antenatal care in hospitals. Intensity, the number of change categories tested, was associated with increased skilled delivery in health centres and reduced under-five mortality in hospitals. Using an innovative evaluation technique we determined that 'Project Fives Alive!' demonstrated impact at scale for the outcomes studied. The QI approach used by this project should be considered by other low- and middle-income countries in their efforts to improve maternal and child health.

Climate change and watershed mercury export: a multiple projection and model analysis.

PubMed

Golden, Heather E; Knightes, Christopher D; Conrads, Paul A; Feaster, Toby D; Davis, Gary M; Benedict, Stephen T; Bradley, Paul M

2013-09-01

Future shifts in climatic conditions may impact watershed mercury (Hg) dynamics and transport. An ensemble of watershed models was applied in the present study to simulate and evaluate the responses of hydrological and total Hg (THg) fluxes from the landscape to the watershed outlet and in-stream THg concentrations to contrasting climate change projections for a watershed in the southeastern coastal plain of the United States. Simulations were conducted under stationary atmospheric deposition and land cover conditions to explicitly evaluate the effect of projected precipitation and temperature on watershed Hg export (i.e., the flux of Hg at the watershed outlet). Based on downscaled inputs from 2 global circulation models that capture extremes of projected wet (Community Climate System Model, Ver 3 [CCSM3]) and dry (ECHAM4/HOPE-G [ECHO]) conditions for this region, watershed model simulation results suggest a decrease of approximately 19% in ensemble-averaged mean annual watershed THg fluxes using the ECHO climate-change model and an increase of approximately 5% in THg fluxes with the CCSM3 model. Ensemble-averaged mean annual ECHO in-stream THg concentrations increased 20%, while those of CCSM3 decreased by 9% between the baseline and projected simulation periods. Watershed model simulation results using both climate change models suggest that monthly watershed THg fluxes increase during the summer, when projected flow is higher than baseline conditions. The present study's multiple watershed model approach underscores the uncertainty associated with climate change response projections and their use in climate change management decisions. Thus, single-model predictions can be misleading, particularly in developmental stages of watershed Hg modeling. Copyright © 2013 SETAC.

Supply and Demand for Radiation Oncology in the United States: Updated Projections for 2015 to 2025

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pan, Hubert Y.; Haffty, Bruce G.; Falit, Benjamin P.

Purpose: Prior studies have forecasted demand for radiation therapy to grow 10 times faster than the supply between 2010 and 2020. We updated these projections for 2015 to 2025 to determine whether this imbalance persists and to assess the accuracy of prior projections. Methods and Materials: The demand for radiation therapy between 2015 and 2025 was estimated by combining current radiation utilization rates determined by the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data with population projections provided by the US Census Bureau. The supply of radiation oncologists was forecast by using workforce demographics and full-time equivalent (FTE) status provided by themore » American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO), current resident class sizes, and expected survival per life tables from the US Centers for Disease Control. Results: Between 2015 and 2025, the annual total number of patients receiving radiation therapy during their initial treatment course is expected to increase by 19%, from 490,000 to 580,000. Assuming a graduating resident class size of 200, the number of FTE physicians is expected to increase by 27%, from 3903 to 4965. In comparison with prior projections, the new projected demand for radiation therapy in 2020 dropped by 24,000 cases (a 4% relative decline). This decrease is attributable to an overall reduction in the use of radiation to treat cancer, from 28% of all newly diagnosed cancers in the prior projections down to 26% for the new projections. By contrast, the new projected supply of radiation oncologists in 2020 increased by 275 FTEs in comparison with the prior projection for 2020 (a 7% relative increase), attributable to rising residency class sizes. Conclusion: The supply of radiation oncologists is expected to grow more quickly than the demand for radiation therapy from 2015 to 2025. Further research is needed to determine whether this is an appropriate correction or will result in excess capacity.« less

Final Report (BMWi Project No.: 02 E 10971): Joint project: Retention of radionuclides relevant for final disposal in natural clay rock and saline systems - Subproject 2: Geochemical behavior and transport of radionuclides in saline systems in the prese

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schmeide, Katja; Fritsch, Katharina; Lippold, Holger

2016-02-29

The objective of this project was to study the influence of increased salinities on interaction processes in the system radionuclide – organics – clay – aquifer. For this, complexation, redox, sorption, and diffusion studies were performed under variation of the ionic strength (up to 4 mol kg -1) and the background electrolyte (NaCl, CaCl 2, MgCl 2).

The project De Caldas International Project: An example of a large-scale radwaste isolation natural analogue study

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shea, M.

1995-09-01

The proper isolation of radioactive waste is one of today`s most pressing environmental issues. Research is being carried out by many countries around the world in order to answer critical and perplexing questions regarding the safe disposal of radioactive waste. Natural analogue studies are an increasingly important facet of this international research effort. The Pocos de Caldas Project represents a major effort of the international technical and scientific community towards addressing one of modern civilization`s most critical environmental issues - radioactive waste isolation.

Active Learning in the Physics Classroom

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Naron, Carol

Many students enter physics classes filled with misconceptions about physics concepts. Students tend to retain these misconceptions into their adult lives, even after physics instruction. Constructivist researchers have found that students gain understanding through their experiences. Researchers have also found that active learning practices increase conceptual understanding of introductory physics students. This project study sought to examine whether incorporating active learning practices in an advanced placement physics classroom increased conceptual understanding as measured by the force concept inventory (FCI). Physics students at the study site were given the FCI as both a pre- and posttest. Test data were analyzed using two different methods---a repeated-measures t test and the Hake gain method. The results of this research project showed that test score gains were statistically significant, as measured by the t test. The Hake gain results indicated a low (22.5%) gain for the class. The resulting project was a curriculum plan for teaching the mechanics portion of Advanced Placement (AP) physics B as well as several active learning classroom practices supported by the research. This project will allow AP physics teachers an opportunity to improve their curricular practices. Locally, the results of this project study showed that research participants gained understanding of physics concepts. Social change may occur as teachers implement active learning strategies, thus creating improved student understanding of physics concepts.

Potential implementation of light steel housing system for affordable housing project in Malaysia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saikah, M.; Kasim, N.; Zainal, R.; Sarpin, N.; Rahim, M. H. I. A.

2017-11-01

An unparalleled number between housing demand and housing supply in Malaysia has increased the housing prices, which gives consequences to the homeownership issue. One way to reduce the housing price is by faster increase the number of affordable housing, but the construction sector faces difficulties in delivering as expected number by using conventional and current industrialised building system (IBS) due to the issue related high project cost, time and labour. Therefore, light steel housing (LSH) system as one of another type of IBS method can be utilised in housing construction project. This method can replace the conventional method that was currently used in the construction of affordable housing project. The objectives of this study are to identify the potential of LSH and influencing factors of system implementation. This is an initial stage to review the previous study related to LSH implementation in developed and developing countries. The previous study will be analysed regarding advantages and disadvantages of LSH and factors that influence the implementation of the system. Based on the literature review it is expected to define the potential and influencing factors of the LSH system. The findings are meaningful in framing and enhance construction housing method of an affordable housing project in Malaysia.

Support increased adoption of green infrastructure into ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

This project will provide technical assistance to support implementation of GI in U.S. communities and information on best practices for GI approaches that protect ground water supplies. Case studies that can be more broadly applied to other communities will be conducted. The project will provide program and regional offices with guidance on GI planning, implementation, and maintenance for stormwater management and capture/aquifer storage. To share information on SSWR research projects

Trends in participation rates for wildlife-associated outdoor recreation activities by age and race/ethnicity: implications for cohort-component projection models

Treesearch

John F. Dwyer; Allan Marsinko

1998-01-01

Cohort-component projection models have been used to explore the implications of increased aging and growth of racial/ethnic minority groups on number of participants in outdoor recreation activities in the years ahead. Projections usually assume that participation rates by age and race/ethnicity remain constant over time. This study looks at trends in activity...

Error Cost Escalation Through the Project Life Cycle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stecklein, Jonette M.; Dabney, Jim; Dick, Brandon; Haskins, Bill; Lovell, Randy; Moroney, Gregory

2004-01-01

It is well known that the costs to fix errors increase as the project matures, but how fast do those costs build? A study was performed to determine the relative cost of fixing errors discovered during various phases of a project life cycle. This study used three approaches to determine the relative costs: the bottom-up cost method, the total cost breakdown method, and the top-down hypothetical project method. The approaches and results described in this paper presume development of a hardware/software system having project characteristics similar to those used in the development of a large, complex spacecraft, a military aircraft, or a small communications satellite. The results show the degree to which costs escalate, as errors are discovered and fixed at later and later phases in the project life cycle. If the cost of fixing a requirements error discovered during the requirements phase is defined to be 1 unit, the cost to fix that error if found during the design phase increases to 3 - 8 units; at the manufacturing/build phase, the cost to fix the error is 7 - 16 units; at the integration and test phase, the cost to fix the error becomes 21 - 78 units; and at the operations phase, the cost to fix the requirements error ranged from 29 units to more than 1500 units

Phase 1 studies summary of major findings of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project, South San Francisco Bay, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Valoppi, Laura

2018-04-02

Executive SummaryThe South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project (Project) is one of the largest restoration efforts in the United States. It is located in South San Francisco Bay of California. It is unique not only for its size—more than 15,000 acres—but also for its location adjacent to one of the nation’s largest urban areas, home to more than 4 million people (Alameda, Santa Clara, and San Mateo Counties). The Project is intended to restore and enhance wetlands in South San Francisco Bay while providing for flood management, wildlife-oriented public access, and recreation. Restoration goals of the project are to provide a mosaic of saltmarsh habitat to benefit marsh species and managed ponds to benefit waterbirds, throughout 3 complexes and 54 former salt ponds.Although much is known about the project area, significant uncertainties remain with a project of this geographic and temporal scale of an estimated 50 years to complete the restoration. For example, in order to convert anywhere from 50 to 90 percent of the existing managed ponds to saltmarsh habitat, conservation managers first enhance the habitat of managed ponds in order to increase use by waterbirds, and provide migratory, wintering, and nesting habitat for more than 90 species of waterbirds. Project managers have concluded that the best way to address these uncertainties is to carefully implement the project in phases and learn from the outcome of each phase. The Adaptive Management Plan (AMP) identifies specific restoration targets for multiple aspects of the Project and defines triggers that would necessitate some type of management action if a particular aspect is trending negatively. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) biologist Laura Valoppi served as the project Lead Scientist and oversaw implementation of the AMP in coordination with other members of the Project Management Team (PMT), comprised of representatives from the California State Coastal Conservancy, California Department of Fish and Wildlife, the Santa Clara Valley Water District, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service.To implement the AMP, the PMT have selected and funded applied studies and monitoring projects to address key uncertainties. This information is used by the PMT to make decisions about current management of the project area and future restoration actions in order to meet project.This document summarizes the major scientific findings from studies conducted from 2009 to 2016, as part of the science program that was conducted in conjunction with Phase 1 restoration and management actions. Additionally, this report summarizes the management response to the study results under the guidance of the AMP framework and provides a list of suggested studies to be conducted in “Phase 2–A scorecard summarizing the Project’s progress toward meeting the AMP goals for a range of Project objectives.” The scoring to date indicates that the Project is meeting or exceeding expectations for sediment accretion and western snowy plover (Charadrius alexandrinus nivosus) recovery. There is uncertainty with respect to objectives for California gulls (Larus californicus), California least tern (Sternula antillarum), steelhead trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss), and regulatory water quality objectives. Water quality and algal blooms, specifically of the managed ponds, is indicated as trending negative. However, the vast majority of objectives are trending positive, including increased abundance for a number of bird guilds, increasing marsh habitat, maintenance of mudflats, visitor experience, estuarine fish numbers, and special-status marsh species numbers.

Optimum Projection Angle for Attaining Maximum Distance in a Soccer Punt Kick

PubMed Central

Linthorne, Nicholas P.; Patel, Dipesh S.

2011-01-01

To produce the greatest horizontal distance in a punt kick the ball must be projected at an appropriate angle. Here, we investigated the optimum projection angle that maximises the distance attained in a punt kick by a soccer goalkeeper. Two male players performed many maximum-effort kicks using projection angles of between 10° and 90°. The kicks were recorded by a video camera at 100 Hz and a 2 D biomechanical analysis was conducted to obtain measures of the projection velocity, projection angle, projection height, ball spin rate, and foot velocity at impact. The player’s optimum projection angle was calculated by substituting mathematical equations for the relationships between the projection variables into the equations for the aerodynamic flight of a soccer ball. The calculated optimum projection angles were in agreement with the player’s preferred projection angles (40° and 44°). In projectile sports even a small dependence of projection velocity on projection angle is sufficient to produce a substantial shift in the optimum projection angle away from 45°. In the punt kicks studied here, the optimum projection angle was close to 45° because the projection velocity of the ball remained almost constant across all projection angles. This result is in contrast to throwing and jumping for maximum distance, where the projection velocity the athlete is able to achieve decreases substantially with increasing projection angle and so the optimum projection angle is well below 45°. Key points The optimum projection angle that maximizes the distance of a punt kick by a soccer goalkeeper is about 45°. The optimum projection angle is close to 45° because the projection velocity of the ball is almost the same at all projection angles. This result is in contrast to throwing and jumping for maximum distance, where the optimum projection angle is well below 45° because the projection velocity the athlete is able to achieve decreases substantially with increasing projection angle. PMID:24149315

A Survey of Final-year Undergraduate Laboratory Projects in Biochemistry and Related Degrees in Great Britain.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Austin, Caroline A.

1997-01-01

Analyzes undergraduate research projects in biochemistry and related subjects at British universities. Discusses the trend toward students doing less research as part of their undergraduate study. Reasons cited for this trend include increased student numbers and costs. (DDR)

A Case Study of a Co-Instructed Multidisciplinary Senior Capstone Project in Sustainability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhee, Jinny; Oyamot, Clifton; Parent, David; Speer, Leslie; Basu, Anuradha; Gerston, Larry

2014-01-01

As societal challenges involving sustainable development increase, the need to effectively integrate this inherently multidisciplinary topic into existing curricula becomes more pressing. Multidisciplinary, team-taught, project-based instruction has shown effectiveness in teaching teamwork, communication, and life-long learning skills, and…

Report of CEC Study Committee on Construction Management.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Consulting Engineers Council of the U.S., Washington, DC.

Changing times place new demands on those involved in the implementation of construction projects. Within a relatively few years, the size and complexity of projects has grown substantially. Environmental and other public and social considerations are increasingly significant. With growing complexity, the requirements for effective project…

Active and Public Transportation Connectivity between North Temple TOD and Jordan Park River Trail

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2017-10-01

The project seeks to capitalize on existing community assets-several TOD stations and a regional bike and pedestrian trail system-by studying how these can be linked. The overarching goal of this project is to increase scholarship on networking safe ...

A cost of living longer: Projections of the effects of prospective mortality improvement on economic support ratios for 14 advanced economies.

PubMed

Parr, Nick; Li, Jackie; Tickle, Leonie

2016-07-01

The economic implications of increasing life expectancy are important concerns for governments in developed countries. The aims of this study were as follows: (i) to forecast mortality for 14 developed countries from 2010 to 2050, using the Poisson Common Factor Model; (ii) to project the effects of the forecast mortality patterns on support ratios; and (iii) to calculate labour force participation increases which could offset these effects. The forecast gains in life expectancy correlate negatively with current fertility. Pre-2050 support ratios are projected to fall most in Japan and east-central and southern Europe, and least in Sweden and Australia. A post-2050 recovery is projected for most east-central and southern European countries. The increases in labour force participation needed to counterbalance the effects of mortality improvement are greatest for Japan, Poland, and the Czech Republic, and least for the USA, Canada, Netherlands, and Sweden. The policy implications are discussed.

Downscaling Climate Projections to a Mountainous Landscape: A Climate Impact Assessment for the U.S. Northern Rockies Crown of the Continent Ecosystem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oyler, J.; Anderson, R.; Running, S. W.

2010-12-01

In topographically complex landscapes, there is often a mismatch in scale between global climate model projections and more local climate-forcing factors and related ecological/hydrological processes. To overcome this limitation, the objective of this study was to downscale climate projections to the rugged Crown of the Continent Ecosystem (CCE) within the U.S. Northern Rockies and assess future impacts on water balances, vegetation dynamics, and carbon fluxes. A 40-year (1970-2009) spatial historical climate dataset (800m resolution, daily timestep) was generated for the CCE and modified for terrain influences. Regional climate projections were downscaled by applying them to the fine-scale historical dataset using a modified delta downscaling method and stochastic weather generator. The downscaled projections were used to drive the Biome-BGC ecosystem model. Overall CCE impacts included decreases in April 1 snow water equivalent, less days with snow on the ground, increased vegetation water stress, and increased growing degree days. The relaxing of temperature constraints increased annual net primary productivity (NPP) throughout most of the CCE landscape. However, an increase in water stress seems to have limited the growth in NPP and, in some areas, NPP actually decreased. Thus, CCE vegetation productivity trends under increasing temperatures will likely be determined by local changes in hydrologic function. Given the greater uncertainty in precipitation projections, future work should concentrate on determining thresholds in water constraints that greatly modify the magnitude and direction of carbon accumulation within the CCE under a warming climate.

Heavy snow loads in Finnish forests respond regionally asymmetrically to projected climate change

DOE PAGES

Lehtonen, Ilari; Kamarainen, Matti; Gregow, Hilppa; ...

2016-10-17

This study examined the impacts of projected climate change on heavy snow loads on Finnish forests, where snow-induced forest damage occurs frequently. For snow-load calculations, we used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using a quantile-mapping method. Our results suggest that projected climate warming results in regionally asymmetric response on heavy snow loads in Finnish forests. In eastern and northern Finland, the annual maximum snow loads on tree crowns were projected to increase during the present century, as opposed to southern and western parts ofmore » the country. The change was rather similar both for heavy rime loads and wet snow loads, as well as for frozen snow loads. Only the heaviest dry snow loads were projected to decrease over almost the whole of Finland. Our results are aligned with previous snowfall projections, typically indicating increasing heavy snowfalls over the areas with mean temperature below -8 °C. In spite of some uncertainties related to our results, we conclude that the risk for snow-induced forest damage is likely to increase in the future in the eastern and northern parts of Finland, i.e. in the areas experiencing the coldest winters in the country. In conclusion, the increase is partly due to the increase in wet snow hazards but also due to more favourable conditions for rime accumulation in a future climate that is more humid but still cold enough.« less

Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data.

PubMed

Muis, Sanne; Güneralp, Burak; Jongman, Brenden; Aerts, Jeroen C J H; Ward, Philip J

2015-12-15

An accurate understanding of flood risk and its drivers is crucial for effective risk management. Detailed risk projections, including uncertainties, are however rarely available, particularly in developing countries. This paper presents a method that integrates recent advances in global-scale modeling of flood hazard and land change, which enables the probabilistic analysis of future trends in national-scale flood risk. We demonstrate its application to Indonesia. We develop 1000 spatially-explicit projections of urban expansion from 2000 to 2030 that account for uncertainty associated with population and economic growth projections, as well as uncertainty in where urban land change may occur. The projections show that the urban extent increases by 215%-357% (5th and 95th percentiles). Urban expansion is particularly rapid on Java, which accounts for 79% of the national increase. From 2000 to 2030, increases in exposure will elevate flood risk by, on average, 76% and 120% for river and coastal floods. While sea level rise will further increase the exposure-induced trend by 19%-37%, the response of river floods to climate change is highly uncertain. However, as urban expansion is the main driver of future risk, the implementation of adaptation measures is increasingly urgent, regardless of the wide uncertainty in climate projections. Using probabilistic urban projections, we show that spatial planning can be a very effective adaptation strategy. Our study emphasizes that global data can be used successfully for probabilistic risk assessment in data-scarce countries. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic regional climate projection in Japan using a regression model with CMIP5 multi-model ensemble experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishizaki, N. N.; Dairaku, K.; Ueno, G.

2016-12-01

We have developed a statistical downscaling method for estimating probabilistic climate projection using CMIP5 multi general circulation models (GCMs). A regression model was established so that the combination of weights of GCMs reflects the characteristics of the variation of observations at each grid point. Cross validations were conducted to select GCMs and to evaluate the regression model to avoid multicollinearity. By using spatially high resolution observation system, we conducted statistically downscaled probabilistic climate projections with 20-km horizontal grid spacing. Root mean squared errors for monthly mean air surface temperature and precipitation estimated by the regression method were the smallest compared with the results derived from a simple ensemble mean of GCMs and a cumulative distribution function based bias correction method. Projected changes in the mean temperature and precipitation were basically similar to those of the simple ensemble mean of GCMs. Mean precipitation was generally projected to increase associated with increased temperature and consequent increased moisture content in the air. Weakening of the winter monsoon may affect precipitation decrease in some areas. Temperature increase in excess of 4 K was expected in most areas of Japan in the end of 21st century under RCP8.5 scenario. The estimated probability of monthly precipitation exceeding 300 mm would increase around the Pacific side during the summer and the Japan Sea side during the winter season. This probabilistic climate projection based on the statistical method can be expected to bring useful information to the impact studies and risk assessments.

Heavy snow loads in Finnish forests respond regionally asymmetrically to projected climate change

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lehtonen, Ilari; Kamarainen, Matti; Gregow, Hilppa

This study examined the impacts of projected climate change on heavy snow loads on Finnish forests, where snow-induced forest damage occurs frequently. For snow-load calculations, we used daily data from five global climate models under representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, statistically downscaled onto a high-resolution grid using a quantile-mapping method. Our results suggest that projected climate warming results in regionally asymmetric response on heavy snow loads in Finnish forests. In eastern and northern Finland, the annual maximum snow loads on tree crowns were projected to increase during the present century, as opposed to southern and western parts ofmore » the country. The change was rather similar both for heavy rime loads and wet snow loads, as well as for frozen snow loads. Only the heaviest dry snow loads were projected to decrease over almost the whole of Finland. Our results are aligned with previous snowfall projections, typically indicating increasing heavy snowfalls over the areas with mean temperature below -8 °C. In spite of some uncertainties related to our results, we conclude that the risk for snow-induced forest damage is likely to increase in the future in the eastern and northern parts of Finland, i.e. in the areas experiencing the coldest winters in the country. In conclusion, the increase is partly due to the increase in wet snow hazards but also due to more favourable conditions for rime accumulation in a future climate that is more humid but still cold enough.« less

Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

USGS Publications Warehouse

Erikson, Li H.; Hegermiller, Christie; Barnard, Patrick; Ruggiero, Peter; van Ormondt, Martin

2015-01-01

Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of climate change on coastal systems.

A retrospective photometric study of 82 published reports of mastopexy and breast reduction.

PubMed

Swanson, Eric

2011-12-01

Numerous publications claim to improve breast projection and upper pole fullness after mastopexy or breast reduction. Fascial sutures and "autoaugmentation" with local flaps are advocated. However, there is no objective evidence that these efforts are effective. The author has proposed a measuring system to quantitate results. Not only is this system useful for assessing one's own results, but it may also be used to assess and compare results in published studies. Eighty-two international publications on mastopexies and breast reductions were analyzed. The studies were grouped by technique: inverted-T (superior/medial, central, and inferior pedicles), vertical, periareolar, inframammary, lateral, and "other." Measurements were made using the definitions and terminology reported separately and included breast projection, upper pole projection, lower pole level, nipple level, breast convexity, breast parenchymal ratio, and lower pole ratio. Areola shape was assessed. Breast projection and upper pole projection were not increased significantly by any of the mastopexy/reduction procedures or by the use of fascial sutures or autoaugmentation techniques. Nipple overelevation was common (41.9 percent). The incidence of the teardrop areola deformity (53.8 percent) was significantly higher (p < 0.001) in patients treated with the open technique of nipple placement. There was no significant difference in results when compared by follow-up times, resection weights, year of publication, or geographic region. Existing mastopexy/reduction techniques do not significantly increase breast projection or upper pole projection. Fascial sutures and autoaugmentation techniques are ineffective. Nipple overelevation and the teardrop areola deformity are common problems and should be avoided.

The Significance of Shifts in Precipitation Patterns: Modelling the Impacts of Climate Change and Glacier Retreat on Extreme Flood Events in Denali National Park, Alaska

PubMed Central

Crossman, Jill; Futter, Martyn N.; Whitehead, Paul G.

2013-01-01

In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21st century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21st century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff. PMID:24023925

The significance of shifts in precipitation patterns: modelling the impacts of climate change and glacier retreat on extreme flood events in Denali National Park, Alaska.

PubMed

Crossman, Jill; Futter, Martyn N; Whitehead, Paul G

2013-01-01

In glacier-fed systems climate change may have various effects over a range of time scales, including increasing river discharge, flood frequency and magnitude. This study uses a combination of empirical monitoring and modelling to project the impacts of climate change on the glacial-fed Middle Fork Toklat River, Denali National Park, Alaska. We use a regional calibration of the model HBV to account for a paucity of long term observed flow data, validating a local application using glacial mass balance data and summer flow records. Two Global Climate Models (HADCM3 and CGCM2) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) are used to ascertain potential changes in meteorological conditions, river discharge, flood frequency and flood magnitude. Using remote sensing methods this study refines existing estimates of glacial recession rates, finding that since 2000, rates have increased from 24 m per year to 68.5m per year, with associated increases in ablation zone ice loss. GCM projections indicate that over the 21(st) century these rates will increase still further, most extensively under the CGCM2 model, and A2 scenarios. Due to greater winter precipitation and ice and snow accumulation, glaciers release increasing meltwater quantities throughout the 21(st) century. Despite increases in glacial melt, results indicate that it is predominantly precipitation that affects river discharge. Three of the four IPCC scenarios project increases in flood frequency and magnitude, events which were primarily associated with changing precipitation patterns, rather than extreme temperature increases or meltwater release. Results suggest that although increasing temperatures will significantly increase glacial melt and winter baseflow, meltwater alone does not pose a significant flood hazard to the Toklat River catchment. Projected changes in precipitation are the primary concern, both through changing snow volumes available for melt, and more directly through increasing catchment runoff.

An enormous hepatitis B virus-related liver disease burden projected in Vietnam by 2025.

PubMed

Nguyen, Van Thi Thuy; Law, Matthew G; Dore, Gregory J

2008-04-01

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) is the major cause of chronic liver disease in Vietnam. This study aimed to estimate and project chronic HBV prevalence and HBV-related liver cirrhosis (LC) and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) for the period 1990-2025. The Vietnamese population for the period 1990-1999 was derived from census data to 1999 and from 2000 to 2025 based on projection data from the United States Census Bureau. Population chronic HBV prevalence for males and females was estimated based on age-specific HBV prevalence from Vietnamese community-based studies. Universal infant HBV vaccination from 2003 was assumed to reduce HBV infection by 90% in subsequent birth cohorts. Incidences of HBV-related LC and HCC by HBV DNA levels from the Taiwanese REVEAL studies were applied to the chronic HBV population to estimate and project HBV-related liver disease burden. Estimated chronic HBV prevalence increased from 6.4 million cases in 1990 to around 8.4 million cases in 2005 and was projected to decrease to 8.0 million by 2025. Estimated HBV-related LC and HCC incidence increased linearly from 21,900 and 9400 in 1990 to 58,650 and 25,000 in 2025. Estimated HBV-related mortality increased from 12,600 in 1990 to 40,000 in 2025. Over the next two decades, universal infant HBV vaccination will reduce chronic HBV prevalence in Vietnam but HBV-related liver disease burden will continue to rise. A national HBV strategy is required to address this expanding burden of liver disease.

Project management practice and its effects on project success in Malaysian construction industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haron, N. A.; Devi, P.; Hassim, S.; Alias, A. H.; Tahir, M. M.; Harun, A. N.

2017-12-01

The rapid economic development has increased the demand for construction of infrastructure and facilities globally. Sustainable development and globalization are the new ‘Zeitgeist’ of the 21st century. In order to implement these projects successfully and to meet the functional aim of the projects within their lifetime, an efficient project management practice is needed. The aim of this study is to identify the critical success factors (CSFs) and the extent of use of project management practice which affects project success, especially during the implementation stage. Data were obtained from self-administered questionnaires with 232 respondents. A mixed method of data collection was adopted using semi-structured interview and questionnaire approach. The result of the analysis of data obtained showed that new and emerging criteria such as customer satisfaction, competency of the project team, and performance of subcontractors/suppliers are becoming measures of success in addition to the classic iron triangle’s view of time, cost and quality. An insight on the extent of use of different project management practice in the industry was also achieved from the study.

A functional-dynamic reflection on participatory processes in modeling projects.

PubMed

Seidl, Roman

2015-12-01

The participation of nonscientists in modeling projects/studies is increasingly employed to fulfill different functions. However, it is not well investigated if and how explicitly these functions and the dynamics of a participatory process are reflected by modeling projects in particular. In this review study, I explore participatory modeling projects from a functional-dynamic process perspective. The main differences among projects relate to the functions of participation-most often, more than one per project can be identified, along with the degree of explicit reflection (i.e., awareness and anticipation) on the dynamic process perspective. Moreover, two main approaches are revealed: participatory modeling covering diverse approaches and companion modeling. It becomes apparent that the degree of reflection on the participatory process itself is not always explicit and perfectly visible in the descriptions of the modeling projects. Thus, the use of common protocols or templates is discussed to facilitate project planning, as well as the publication of project results. A generic template may help, not in providing details of a project or model development, but in explicitly reflecting on the participatory process. It can serve to systematize the particular project's approach to stakeholder collaboration, and thus quality management.

Effective factor of virtual team: Resolving communication breakdown in IBS construction project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pozin, Mohd Affendi Ahmad; Nawi, Mohd. Nasrun Mohd.

2016-08-01

Currently, rapid development of information technology has provided new opportunities to organisation toward increasing the effectiveness of collaboration and teamwork management. Thus the virtual team approach has been implemented in numerous of field. However, there is limited study of virtual team in construction project management. Currently IBS project is still based on traditional construction process which is isolation team working environment. Therefore this approach has been declared as a main barrier to ensure cooperative working relation in term of communication and information in between project stakeholders. Thus, this paper through literature review is attempted to present a discussion of the virtual team approach toward IBS project in developing effective team communication during construction project.

Historical simulations and climate change projections over India by NCAR CCSM4: CMIP5 vs. NEX-GDDP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sahany, Sandeep; Mishra, Saroj Kanta; Salunke, Popat

2018-03-01

A new bias-corrected statistically downscaled product, namely, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP), has recently been developed by NASA to help the scientific community in climate change impact studies at local to regional scale. In this work, the product is validated over India and its added value as compared to its CMIP5 counterpart for the NCAR CCSM4 model is analyzed, followed by climate change projections under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario using the two datasets for the variables daily maximum 2-m air temperature (Tmax), daily minimum 2-m air temperature (Tmin), and rainfall. It is found that, overall, the CCSM4-NEX-GDDP significantly reduces many of the biases in CCSM4-CMIP5 for the historical simulations; however, some biases such as the significant overestimation in the frequency of occurrence in the lower tail of the Tmax and Tmin still remain. In regard to rainfall, an important value addition in CCSM4-NEX-GDDP is the alleviation of the significant underestimation of rainfall extremes found in CCSM4-CMIP5. The projected Tmax from CCSM4-NEX-GDDP are in general higher than that projected by CCSM4-CMIP5, suggesting that the risks of heat waves and very hot days could be higher than that projected by the latter. CCSM4-NEX-GDDP projects the frequency of occurrence of the upper extreme values of historical Tmax to increase by a factor of 100 towards the end of century (as opposed to a factor of 10 increase projected by CCSM4-CMIP5). In regard to rainfall, both CCSM4-CMIP5 and CCSM4-NEX-GDDP project an increase in annual rainfall over India under the RCP8.5 global warming scenario progressively from the near term through the far term. However, CCSM4-NEX-GDDP consistently projects a higher magnitude of increase and over a larger area as compared to that projected by CCSM4-CMIP5. Projected daily rainfall distributions from CCSM4-CMIP5 and CCSM4-NEX-GDDP suggest the occurrence of events that have no historical precedents. Worth noting is that the extreme daily rainfall values projected by CCSM4-NEX-GDDP are two to three times larger than that projected by CCSM4-CMIP5.

Projected irrigation requirements for upland crops using soil moisture model under climate change in South Korea

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

An increase in abnormal climate change patterns and unsustainable irrigation in uplands cause drought and affect agricultural water security, crop productivity, and price fluctuations. In this study, we developed a soil moisture model to project irrigation requirements (IR) for upland crops under cl...

Impact of the agricultural research service watershed assessment studies on the conservation effects assessment project cropland national assessment

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

USDA initiated the Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP) in 2002 to analyze societal and environmental benefits gained from the increased conservation program funding provided in the 2002 Farm Bill. The Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), Agricultural Research Service (ARS), and...

Solar Collector Design Optimization: A Hands-on Project Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Birnie, Dunbar P., III; Kaz, David M.; Berman, Elena A.

2012-01-01

A solar power collector optimization design project has been developed for use in undergraduate classrooms and/or laboratories. The design optimization depends on understanding the current-voltage characteristics of the starting photovoltaic cells as well as how the cell's electrical response changes with increased light illumination. Students…

Improving Interpersonal Communication through Community Service

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hoffman, August John; Wallach, Julie; Sanchez, Eduardo; Afkhami, Hasti

2009-01-01

The current study sought to determine if community based gardening projects would reduce perceptions of the need to use communication devices--cell phones or text messaging--and increase the likelihood of participating in future volunteer projects. Results strongly support the predictions in that the experimental group post-test mean score of the…

Peak groundwater depletion in the High Plains Aquifer, projections from 1930 to 2110

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Peak groundwater depletion from overtapping aquifers beyond recharge rates occurs as the depletion rate increases until a peak occurs followed by a decreasing trend as pumping equilibrates towards available recharge. The logistic equation of Hubbert’s study of peak oil is used to project measurement...

School Health Promotion to Increase Empowerment, Gender Equality and Pupil Participation: A Focus Group Study of a Swedish Elementary School Initiative

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gadin, Katja Gillander; Weiner, Gaby; Ahlgren, Christina

2013-01-01

A school health promotion project was carried out in an elementary school in Sweden where active participation, gender equality, and empowerment were leading principles. The objective of the study was to understand challenges and to identify social processes of importance for such a project. Focus group interviews were conducted with 6 single-sex…

Teaching Pre-Service Teachers to Make Digital Stories That Explain Complex Mathematical Concepts in a Real-World Context: The "Math-eo" Project, Creating "Cool New Tools"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walters, Lynne Masel; Green, Martha R.; Goldsby, Dianne; Walters, Timothy N.; Wang, Liangyan

2016-01-01

This mixed methods study examines whether engaging in a problem-solving project to create Math-eos (digital videos) increases pre-service teachers' understanding of the relationship between visual, auditory, and verbal representation and critical thinking in mathematics. Additionally, the study looks at what aspects of a digital problem solving…

Efficacy, Outcomes, and Empowerment Evaluation of a School District NET Project, Part III: Theoretical Model.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller-Whitehead, Marie; Abbott, Gypsy

The efficacy and outcomes of a U.S. Department of Agriculture Nutrition Education Training (NET) project designed to increase awareness of health risk and wellness factors for grade 9 students were studied. This paper comments on results from a survey of 125 ninth graders about the NET curriculum and results from a study of program impact on…

Identity practices, ingroup projection, and the evaluation of subgroups: a study among Turkish-Dutch Sunnis.

PubMed

Lie, Jessamina Lih Yan; Verkuyten, Maykel

2012-01-01

This research focuses on religious subgroup evaluations by examining the attitude of Turkish-Dutch Sunni Muslims towards Alevi and Shiite Muslims. Following the Ingroup Projection Model, it was expected that Sunni participants who practice Islam will project their self-defining subgroup practices on the superordinate Muslim category, which will be related to more ingroup bias towards Alevis, a Muslim subgroup that performs different religious practices. Two studies yielded consistent evidence that practicing Islam increased ingroup bias towards Alevis. Furthermore, in Study 2, we found evidence that the effect of practicing Islam on ingroup bias was mediated by relative ingroup prototypicality (RIP). Moreover, practicing Islam did not affect RIP in relation to Shiites who perform the same religious practices that we examined. These findings support the Ingroup Projection Model.

Inequalities in Open Source Software Development: Analysis of Contributor's Commits in Apache Software Foundation Projects.

PubMed

Chełkowski, Tadeusz; Gloor, Peter; Jemielniak, Dariusz

2016-01-01

While researchers are becoming increasingly interested in studying OSS phenomenon, there is still a small number of studies analyzing larger samples of projects investigating the structure of activities among OSS developers. The significant amount of information that has been gathered in the publicly available open-source software repositories and mailing-list archives offers an opportunity to analyze projects structures and participant involvement. In this article, using on commits data from 263 Apache projects repositories (nearly all), we show that although OSS development is often described as collaborative, but it in fact predominantly relies on radically solitary input and individual, non-collaborative contributions. We also show, in the first published study of this magnitude, that the engagement of contributors is based on a power-law distribution.

Inequalities in Open Source Software Development: Analysis of Contributor’s Commits in Apache Software Foundation Projects

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

While researchers are becoming increasingly interested in studying OSS phenomenon, there is still a small number of studies analyzing larger samples of projects investigating the structure of activities among OSS developers. The significant amount of information that has been gathered in the publicly available open-source software repositories and mailing-list archives offers an opportunity to analyze projects structures and participant involvement. In this article, using on commits data from 263 Apache projects repositories (nearly all), we show that although OSS development is often described as collaborative, but it in fact predominantly relies on radically solitary input and individual, non-collaborative contributions. We also show, in the first published study of this magnitude, that the engagement of contributors is based on a power-law distribution. PMID:27096157

Is diabetes color-blind? Growth of prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children through 2030.

PubMed

Adepoju, Omolola E; Bolin, Jane N; Booth, Eric A; Zhao, Hongwei; Lin, Szu-Hsuan; Phillips, Charles D; Ohsfeldt, Robert L

2015-06-01

Diabetes knows no age and affects millions of individuals. Preventing diabetes in children is increasingly becoming a major health policy concern and focus. The objective of this study is to project the number of children, aged 0-17 years, with diagnosed diabetes in the United States through 2030, accounting for changing demography, and diabetes and obesity prevalence rates. The study team combined historic diabetes and obesity prevalence data with US child population estimates and projections. A times-series regression model was used to forecast future diabetes prevalence and to account for the relationship between the forecasted diabetes prevalence and the lagged prevalence of childhood obesity. Overall, the prevalence of diagnosed diabetes is projected to increase 67% from 0.22% in 2010 to 0.36% in 2030. Lagged obesity prevalence in Hispanic boys and non-Hispanic black girls was significantly associated with increasing future diabetes prevalence. The study results showed that a 1% increase in obesity prevalence among Hispanic boys from the previous year was significantly associated with a 0.005% increase in future prevalence of diagnosed diabetes in children (P ≤ 0.01). Likewise, a unit increase in obesity prevalence among non-Hispanic black girls was associated with a 0.003% increase in future diabetes prevalence (P < 0.05). Obesity rates for other race/ethnicity combinations were not associated with increasing future diabetes prevalence. To mitigate the continued threat posed by diabetes, serious discussions need to focus on the pediatric population, particularly non-Hispanic black girls and Hispanic boys whose obesity trends show the strongest associations with future diabetes prevalence in children.

The project ownership survey: measuring differences in scientific inquiry experiences.

PubMed

Hanauer, David I; Dolan, Erin L

2014-01-01

A growing body of research documents the positive outcomes of research experiences for undergraduates, including increased persistence in science. Study of undergraduate lab learning experiences has demonstrated that the design of the experience influences the extent to which students report ownership of the project and that project ownership is one of the psychosocial factors involved in student retention in the sciences. To date, methods for measuring project ownership have not been suitable for the collection of larger data sets. The current study aims to rectify this by developing, presenting, and evaluating a new instrument for measuring project ownership. Eighteen scaled items were generated based on prior research and theory related to project ownership and combined with 30 items shown to measure respondents' emotions about an experience, resulting in the Project Ownership survey (POS). The POS was analyzed to determine its dimensionality, reliability, and validity. The POS had a coefficient alpha of 0.92 and thus has high internal consistency. Known-groups validity was analyzed through the ability of the instrument to differentiate between students who studied in traditional versus research-based laboratory courses. The POS scales as differentiated between the groups and findings paralleled previous results in relation to the characteristics of project ownership.

Water transfer projects and the role of fisheries biologists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Meador, M.R.

1996-01-01

Water transfer projects are commonly considered important mechanisms for meeting increasing water demands. However, the movement of water from one area to another may have broad ecosystem effects, including on fisheries. The Southern Division of the American Fisheries Society held a symposium in 1995 at Virginia Beach, Virginia, to discuss the ecological consequences of water transfer and identify the role of fisheries biologists in such projects. Presenters outlined several case studies, including the California State Water Project, Garrison Diversion Project (North Dakota), Lake Texoma Water Transfer Project (Oklahoma-Texas), Santee-Cooper Diversion and Re-diversion projects (South Carolina), and Tri-State Comprehensive Study (Alabama-Florida-Georgia). Results from these studies suggest that fisheries biologists have provided critical information regarding potential ecological consequences of water transfer. If these professionals continue to be called for information regarding the ecological consequences of water transfer projects, developing a broader understanding of the ecological processes that affect the fish species they manage may be necessary. Although the traditional role of fisheries biologists has focused on the fishing customer base, fisheries management issues are only one component of the broad spectrum of ecosystem issues resulting from water transfer.

Advanced secondary recovery demonstration for the Sooner Unit. Progress report, July 1--September 30, 1995

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sippel, M.A.; Cammon, T.J.

1995-09-30

The objective of this project is to increase production from the Cretaceous ``D`` Sand in the Denver-Julesburg (D-J) Basin through geologically targeted infill drilling and improved reservoir management of waterflood operations. This project involves multi-disciplinary reservoir characterization using high-density 3-D seismic, detailed stratigraphy and reservoir simulation studies. Infill drilling, water-injection conversion and recompleting some wells to add short-radius laterals will be based on the results of the reservoir characterization studies. Production response will be evaluated using reservoir simulation and production tests. Technology transfer will utilize workshops, presentations and technical papers which will emphasize the economic advantages of implementing the demonstratedmore » technologies. The success of this project and effective technology transfer should prompt-re-appraisal of older waterflood projects and implementation of new projects in oil provinces such as the D-J Basin. Three wells have been drilled by the project based on 3-D seismic and integrated reservoir characterization study. Oil production has increased in September to 54.0 m{sup 3}/D (340 bopd) after the completion of the SU 21-16-9. Combination-attribute maps from 3-D seismic data closely predicted the net-pay thickness of the new well. Inter-well tracer tests with sodium bromide indicate a high-permeability channel between two wells. An oral presentation was made at the Rocky Mountain AAPG meeting in Reno, NV.« less

Is Project Based Learning More Effective than Direct Instruction in School Science Classrooms? An Analysis of the Empirical Research Evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dann, Clifford

An increasingly loud call by parents, school administrators, teachers, and even business leaders for "authentic learning", emphasizing both group-work and problem solving, has led to growing enthusiasm for inquiry-based learning over the past decade. Although "inquiry" can be defined in many ways, a curriculum called "project-based learning" has recently emerged as the inquiry practice-of-choice with roots in the educational constructivism that emerged in the mid-twentieth century. Often, project-based learning is framed as an alternative instructional strategy to direct instruction for maximizing student content knowledge. This study investigates the empirical evidence for such a comparison while also evaluating the overall quality of the available studies in the light of accepted standards for educational research. Specifically, this thesis investigates what the body of quantitative research says about the efficacy of project-based learning vs. direct instruction when considering student acquisition of content knowledge in science classrooms. Further, existing limitations of the research pertaining to project based learning and secondary school education are explored. The thesis concludes with a discussion of where and how we should focus our empirical efforts in the future. The research revealed that the available empirical research contains flaws in both design and instrumentation. In particular, randomization is poor amongst all the studies considered. The empirical evidence indicates that project-based learning curricula improved student content knowledge but that, while the results were statistically significant, increases in raw test scores were marginal.

Endometrial Cancer Trends by Race and Histology in the USA: Projecting the Number of New Cases from 2015 to 2040.

PubMed

Gaber, Charles; Meza, Rafael; Ruterbusch, Julie J; Cote, Michele L

2016-10-17

The aim of this study is to explore incidence and incidence-based mortality trends for endometrial cancer in the USA and project future incident cases, accounting for differences by race and histological subtype. Data on age-adjusted and age-specific incidence and mortality rates of endometrial cancer were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results 18 registries. Trends in rates were analyzed using Joinpoint regression, and average annual percent change (AAPC) in recent years (2006-2011) was computed for histological subtypes by race. Age, histological, and race-specific rates were applied to US Census Bureau population census estimates to project new cases from 2015 to 2040, accounting for observed AAPC trends, which were progressively attenuated for the future years. The annual number of cases is projected to increase substantially from 2015 to 2040 across all racial groups. Considerable variation in incidence and mortality trends was observed both between and within racial groups when considering histology. As the US population undergoes demographic changes, incidence of endometrial cancer is projected to rise. The increase will occur in all racial groups, but larger increases will be seen in aggressive histology subtypes that disproportionately affect black women.

Projecting future air pollution-related mortality under a changing climate: progress, uncertainties and research needs.

PubMed

Madaniyazi, Lina; Guo, Yuming; Yu, Weiwei; Tong, Shilu

2015-02-01

Climate change may affect mortality associated with air pollutants, especially for fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3). Projection studies of such kind involve complicated modelling approaches with uncertainties. We conducted a systematic review of researches and methods for projecting future PM2.5-/O3-related mortality to identify the uncertainties and optimal approaches for handling uncertainty. A literature search was conducted in October 2013, using the electronic databases: PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 to September 2013. Fifteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most studies reported that an increase of climate change-induced PM2.5 and O3 may result in an increase in mortality. However, little research has been conducted in developing countries with high emissions and dense populations. Additionally, health effects induced by PM2.5 may dominate compared to those caused by O3, but projection studies of PM2.5-related mortality are fewer than those of O3-related mortality. There is a considerable variation in approaches of scenario-based projection researches, which makes it difficult to compare results. Multiple scenarios, models and downscaling methods have been used to reduce uncertainties. However, few studies have discussed what the main source of uncertainties is and which uncertainty could be most effectively reduced. Projecting air pollution-related mortality requires a systematic consideration of assumptions and uncertainties, which will significantly aid policymakers in efforts to manage potential impacts of PM2.5 and O3 on mortality in the context of climate change. Crown Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Guo, Lanli; Sheng, Jinyu

2017-05-01

A numerical study is conducted to investigate the impact of climate changes on ocean surface gravity waves over the eastern Canadian shelf (ECS). The "business-as-usual" climate scenario known as Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5 is considered in this study. Changes in the ocean surface gravity waves over the study region for the period 1979-2100 are examined based on 3 hourly ocean waves simulated by the third-generation ocean wave model known as WAVEWATCHIII. The wave model is driven by surface winds and ice conditions produced by the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4). The whole study period is divided into the present (1979-2008), near future (2021-2050) and far future (2071-2100) periods to quantify possible future changes of ocean waves over the ECS. In comparison with the present ocean wave conditions, the time-mean significant wave heights ( H s ) are expected to increase over most of the ECS in the near future and decrease over this region in the far future period. The time-means of the annual 5% largest H s are projected to increase over the ECS in both near and far future periods due mainly to the changes in surface winds. The future changes in the time-means of the annual 5% largest H s and 10-m wind speeds are projected to be twice as strong as the changes in annual means. An analysis of inverse wave ages suggests that the occurrence of wind seas is projected to increase over the southern Labrador and central Newfoundland Shelves in the near future period, and occurrence of swells is projected to increase over other areas of the ECS in both the near and far future periods.

Increasing Prediction the Original Final Year Project of Student Using Genetic Algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saragih, Rijois Iboy Erwin; Turnip, Mardi; Sitanggang, Delima; Aritonang, Mendarissan; Harianja, Eva

2018-04-01

Final year project is very important forgraduation study of a student. Unfortunately, many students are not seriouslydidtheir final projects. Many of studentsask for someone to do it for them. In this paper, an application of genetic algorithms to predict the original final year project of a studentis proposed. In the simulation, the data of the final project for the last 5 years is collected. The genetic algorithm has several operators namely population, selection, crossover, and mutation. The result suggest that genetic algorithm can do better prediction than other comparable model. Experimental results of predicting showed that 70% was more accurate than the previous researched.

Impact of rural water projects on hygienic behaviour in Swaziland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Peter, Graciana

In Swaziland, access to safe water supply and sanitation has improved significantly and was expected to result in improved health and, in particular, reduced infant mortality rates. On the contrary, mortality rates in the under 5 years age group are high and have doubled from 60 in 1996, to 120 deaths per 1000 in 2006. The main objective of the study was to assess whether the water projects permit, and are accompanied by, changes in hygienic behaviour to prevent transmission of diseases. The study area was Phonjwane, located in the dry Lowveld of Swaziland, where water projects play a significant role in meeting domestic water demands. Hygienic behaviour and sanitation facilities were analysed and compared before and after project. The results of the study show that domestic water supply projects have significantly reduced distances travelled and time taken to collect water, and that increased quantities of water are collected and used. While the majority of respondents (95.6%) used the domestic water project source, the quantities allowed per household (125 l which translates to an average of 20.8 l per person) were insufficient and therefore were supplemented with harvested rainwater (57.8%), water from a polluted river (17.8%), and water from a dam (2.2%). Increased water quantities have permitted more baths and washing of clothes and hands, but significant proportions of the population still skip hygienic practices such as keeping water for washing hands inside or near toilet facilities (40%) and washing hands (20%). The study concludes that the water supply project has permitted and improved hygienic practices but not sufficiently. The health benefits of safe domestic water supplies are hampered by insufficient quantities of water availed through the projects, possible contamination of the water in the house, poor hygienic behaviours and lack of appropriate sanitation measures by some households. There is a need to provide sufficient quantities of safe water to meet all domestic demands. Domestic water supply must be accompanied by appropriate sanitation and hygienic education.

Tissue Expander Overfilling: Achieving New Dimensions of Customization in Breast Reconstruction

PubMed Central

Treiser, Matthew D.; Lahair, Tracy

2016-01-01

Introduction: Overfill of tissue expanders is a commonly used modality to achieve customized dimensions in breast reconstruction. Little formal study of the dynamics of hyperexpansion of these devices has been performed to date, however. Methods: Overfill trials were performed using both Natrelle 133 MV and Mentor 8200 tissue expanders of indicated capacities ranging from 250 to 800 mL. Each expander was initially filled to its indicated capacity with normal water and then injected in regular increments to 400% overfill. Measurements of each expander’s width, height, and projection were made at indicated capacity and with each successive incremental overfill injection, and these results were then recorded, collated, and analyzed. Results: Over the first 50% overfill, all expanders demonstrated a logarithmic increase in projection (mean increase, 143 ± 9%) while maintaining essentially stable base dimensions. Overfill levels in excess of 50% were accompanied by linear increases in height, width, and projection, during which projection approached, but never equaled, base dimensions. Stress versus strain analyses demonstrated nonlinear biomechanical dynamics during the first 50% overfill, followed by standard elastic dynamics up to 400% overfill. At no point during the study, did expander tensions outstrip elastic properties, thereby explaining the lack of device rupture. Conclusions: Through overfilling, tunable geometries of tissue expanders can be accessed that may provide for increasing customization of reconstructions, particularly at overfill volumes up to 50% over indicated capacity. This study should serve to guide tissue expander selection and fill volumes that surgeons may implement in obtaining ideal reconstructed breast shapes. PMID:27014541

[The final situation in the Turkey "Stent for Life" project].

PubMed

Ertaş, Gökhan; Kozan, Omer; Değertekin, Muzaffer; Kervan, Umit; Aksoy, Mehmet; Koç, Orhan; Göktekin, Omer

2012-09-01

The Stent for Life (SFL) project's main mission is to increase the use of primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in more than 70% of all acute ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. Previous to the SFL project, thrombolysis was the dominant reperfusion strategy since a low percentage of acute STEMI patients had access to primary PCI in our country. In this study, we present the main barriers of access to primary PCI in the centers that were involved with the SFL project. Patients with acute STEMI admitted to the centers that were involved in the SFL project between 2009 and 2011 were included in the analysis. Since the inception of the SFL project, the primary PCI rate has reached over 90% in SFL pilot cities. In the last 5 years, the number of ambulances and emergency stations has increased. Since the collaboration with 112 Emergency Service, a great majority of cases were reached via the emergency medical system. The mean door-to-balloon time for the pilot cities was 54.72±43.66 minutes. After three years of the SFL project, primary PCI has emerged as the preferred reperfusion strategy for patients with STEMI in pilot cities.

Effects of model structural uncertainty on carbon cycle projections: biological nitrogen fixation as a case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wieder, William R.; Cleveland, Cory C.; Lawrence, David M.; Bonan, Gordon B.

2015-04-01

Uncertainties in terrestrial carbon (C) cycle projections increase uncertainty of potential climate feedbacks. Efforts to improve model performance often include increased representation of biogeochemical processes, such as coupled carbon-nitrogen (N) cycles. In doing so, models are becoming more complex, generating structural uncertainties in model form that reflect incomplete knowledge of how to represent underlying processes. Here, we explore structural uncertainties associated with biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) and quantify their effects on C cycle projections. We find that alternative plausible structures to represent BNF result in nearly equivalent terrestrial C fluxes and pools through the twentieth century, but the strength of the terrestrial C sink varies by nearly a third (50 Pg C) by the end of the twenty-first century under a business-as-usual climate change scenario representative concentration pathway 8.5. These results indicate that actual uncertainty in future C cycle projections may be larger than previously estimated, and this uncertainty will limit C cycle projections until model structures can be evaluated and refined.

Heat-related mortality in a warming climate: projections for 12 U.S. cities.

PubMed

Petkova, Elisaveta P; Bader, Daniel A; Anderson, G Brooke; Horton, Radley M; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L

2014-10-31

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Projected change in global fisheries revenues under climate change

PubMed Central

Lam, Vicky W. Y.; Cheung, William W. L.; Reygondeau, Gabriel; Sumaila, U. Rashid

2016-01-01

Previous studies highlight the winners and losers in fisheries under climate change based on shifts in biomass, species composition and potential catches. Understanding how climate change is likely to alter the fisheries revenues of maritime countries is a crucial next step towards the development of effective socio-economic policy and food sustainability strategies to mitigate and adapt to climate change. Particularly, fish prices and cross-oceans connections through distant water fishing operations may largely modify the projected climate change impacts on fisheries revenues. However, these factors have not formally been considered in global studies. Here, using climate-living marine resources simulation models, we show that global fisheries revenues could drop by 35% more than the projected decrease in catches by the 2050 s under high CO2 emission scenarios. Regionally, the projected increases in fish catch in high latitudes may not translate into increases in revenues because of the increasing dominance of low value fish, and the decrease in catches by these countries’ vessels operating in more severely impacted distant waters. Also, we find that developing countries with high fisheries dependency are negatively impacted. Our results suggest the need to conduct full-fledged economic analyses of the potential economic effects of climate change on global marine fisheries. PMID:27600330

Heat-Related Mortality in a Warming Climate: Projections for 12 U.S. Cities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Petkova, Elisaveta P.; Bader, Daniel A.; Anderson, G. Brooke; Horton, Radley M.; Knowlton, Kim; Kinney, Patrick L.

2014-01-01

Heat is among the deadliest weather-related phenomena in the United States, and the number of heat-related deaths may increase under a changing climate, particularly in urban areas. Regional adaptation planning is unfortunately often limited by the lack of quantitative information on potential future health responses. This study presents an assessment of the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality in 12 cities using 16 global climate models, driven by two scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions. Although the magnitude of the projected heat effects was found to differ across time, cities, climate models and greenhouse pollution emissions scenarios, climate change was projected to result in increases in heat-related fatalities over time throughout the 21st century in all of the 12 cities included in this study. The increase was more substantial under the high emission pathway, highlighting the potential benefits to public health of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Nearly 200,000 heat-related deaths are projected to occur in the 12 cities by the end of the century due to climate warming, over 22,000 of which could be avoided if we follow a low GHG emission pathway. The presented estimates can be of value to local decision makers and stakeholders interested in developing strategies to reduce these impacts and building climate change resilience.

Acute pancreatitis decreases the sensitivity of pancreas-projecting dorsal motor nucleus of the vagus neurones to group II metabotropic glutamate receptor agonists in rats

PubMed Central

Babic, Tanja; Travagli, R Alberto

2014-01-01

Recent studies have shown that pancreatic exocrine secretions (PES) are modulated by dorsal motor nucleus of the vagus (DMV) neurones, whose activity is finely tuned by GABAergic and glutamatergic synaptic inputs. Group II metabotropic glutamate receptors (mGluR) decrease synaptic transmission to pancreas-projecting DMV neurones and increase PES. In the present study, we used a combination of in vivo and in vitro approaches aimed at characterising the effects of caerulein-induced acute pancreatitis (AP) on the vagal neurocircuitry modulating pancreatic functions. In control rats, microinjection of bicuculline into the DMV increased PES, whereas microinjections of kynurenic acid had no effect. Conversely, in AP rats, microinjection of bicuculline had no effect, whereas kynurenic acid decreased PES. DMV microinjections of the group II mGluR agonist APDC and whole cell recordings of excitatory currents in identified pancreas-projecting DMV neurones showed a reduced functional response in AP rats compared to controls. Moreover, these changes persisted up to 3 weeks following the induction of AP. These data demonstrate that AP increases the excitatory input to pancreas-projecting DMV neurones by decreasing the response of excitatory synaptic terminals to group II mGluR agonist. PMID:24445314

Should body image programs be inclusive? A focus group study of college students.

PubMed

Ciao, Anna C; Ohls, Olivia C; Pringle, Kevin D

2018-01-01

Most evidence-based body image programs for college students (e.g., the Body Project) are designed for female-only audiences, although body dissatisfaction is not limited to female-identified individuals. Furthermore, programs do not explicitly discuss diversity, although individuals with marginalized gender, racial, and sexual identities may be particularly vulnerable to body image disturbances. Making programs more inclusive may increase their disseminability. This qualitative study examined the feasibility of adapting the Body Project for universal and inclusive use with college students. Participants (N = 36; M age = 21.66 years; 73% female-identified; 20% sexual minority; 23% racial minority) attended one of five semi-structured focus groups to explore the inclusivity of appearance-based cultural norms using adapted Body Project activities and discuss the feasibility of universal and inclusive interventions. Inductive qualitative content analysis with three-rater consensus identified focus group themes. There was consensus that inclusive interventions could have a positive impact (broadening perspectives, normalizing body image concerns, increasing awareness) despite potential barriers (poor diversity representation, vulnerability). There was strong consensus regarding advice for facilitating inclusive interventions (e.g., skilled facilitation, education, increasing diversity). Results suggest that inclusive body image programs are desirable and provide a framework for creating the EVERYbody Project, a program for more universal audiences. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Fish-T1K (Transcriptomes of 1,000 Fishes) Project: large-scale transcriptome data for fish evolution studies.

PubMed

Sun, Ying; Huang, Yu; Li, Xiaofeng; Baldwin, Carole C; Zhou, Zhuocheng; Yan, Zhixiang; Crandall, Keith A; Zhang, Yong; Zhao, Xiaomeng; Wang, Min; Wong, Alex; Fang, Chao; Zhang, Xinhui; Huang, Hai; Lopez, Jose V; Kilfoyle, Kirk; Zhang, Yong; Ortí, Guillermo; Venkatesh, Byrappa; Shi, Qiong

2016-01-01

Ray-finned fishes (Actinopterygii) represent more than 50 % of extant vertebrates and are of great evolutionary, ecologic and economic significance, but they are relatively underrepresented in 'omics studies. Increased availability of transcriptome data for these species will allow researchers to better understand changes in gene expression, and to carry out functional analyses. An international project known as the "Transcriptomes of 1,000 Fishes" (Fish-T1K) project has been established to generate RNA-seq transcriptome sequences for 1,000 diverse species of ray-finned fishes. The first phase of this project has produced transcriptomes from more than 180 ray-finned fishes, representing 142 species and covering 51 orders and 109 families. Here we provide an overview of the goals of this project and the work done so far.

The Impact of Project ECHO on Participant and Patient Outcomes: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Zhou, Carrol; Crawford, Allison; Serhal, Eva; Kurdyak, Paul; Sockalingam, Sanjeev

2016-10-01

Project Extension for Community Healthcare Outcomes (ECHO) uses tele-education to bridge knowledge gaps between specialists at academic health centers and primary care providers from remote areas. It has been implemented to address multiple medical conditions. The authors examined evidence of the impact of all Project ECHO programs on participant and patient outcomes. The authors searched PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, and ProQuest from January 2000 to August 2015 and the reference lists of identified reviews. Included studies were limited to those published in English, peer-reviewed articles or indexed abstracts, and those that primarily focused on Project ECHO. Editorials, commentaries, gray literature, and non-peer-reviewed articles were excluded. The authors used Moore's evaluation framework to organize study outcomes for quality assessment. The authors identified 39 studies describing Project ECHO's involvement in addressing 17 medical conditions. Evaluations of Project ECHO programs generally were limited to outcomes from Levels 1 (number of participants) to 4 (providers' competence) of Moore's framework (n = 22 studies, with some containing data from multiple levels). Studies also suggested that Project ECHO changed provider behavior (n = 1), changed patient outcomes (n = 6), and can be cost-effective (n = 2). Project ECHO is an effective and potentially cost-saving model that increases participant knowledge and patient access to health care in remote locations, but further research examining its efficacy is needed. Identifying and addressing potential barriers to Project ECHO's implementation will support the dissemination of this model as an education and practice improvement initiative.

Using information and communication technology to revitalise continuing professional development for rural health professionals: evidence from a pilot project.

PubMed

Mugisha, J F

2009-01-01

This project revitalised continuing professional development (CPD) among rural health professionals in Uganda, Africa, using information and communication technology (ICT). The project was piloted in 3 rural hospitals where CPD activities were failing to meet demand because activities were not properly coordinated, the meetings were too infrequent, the delivery methods were inappropriate, and the content was highly supply-driven and generally irrelevant to the performance needs of the health workers. The project intervention involved the installation of various ICT equipment including computers, liquid crystal display (LCD) projectors, office copiers, printers, spiral binders and CDs. A number of health workers were also trained in ICT use. Three years later, an evaluation study was conducted using interviews, focus group discussions and document review. The results indicated that there had been a rapid increase in the number of staff attending the CPD sessions, an increased staff mix among participants, improved quality of CPD presentations, increased use of locally produced content, more relevant topics discussed and an increased interest by hospital management in CPD, manifested by commitment of staff training funds. Staff motivation, attitude and responsiveness to clients had also improved as a result of the invigorated CPD activities.

Impact of choice of future climate change projection on growth chamber experimental outcomes: a preliminary study in potato.

PubMed

Leisner, Courtney P; Wood, Joshua C; Vaillancourt, Brieanne; Tang, Ying; Douches, Dave S; Robin Buell, C; Winkler, Julie A

2018-04-01

Understanding the impacts of climate change on agriculture is essential to ensure adequate future food production. Controlled growth experiments provide an effective tool for assessing the complex effects of climate change. However, a review of the use of climate projections in 57 previously published controlled growth studies found that none considered within-season variations in projected future temperature change, and few considered regional differences in future warming. A fixed, often arbitrary, temperature perturbation typically was applied for the entire growing season. This study investigates the utility of employing more complex climate change scenarios in growth chamber experiments. A case study in potato was performed using three dynamically downscaled climate change projections for the mid-twenty-first century that differ in terms of the timing during the growing season of the largest projected temperature changes. The climate projections were used in growth chamber experiments for four elite potato cultivars commonly planted in Michigan's major potato growing region. The choice of climate projection had a significant influence on the sign and magnitude of the projected changes in aboveground biomass and total tuber count, whereas all projections suggested an increase in total tuber weight and a decrease in specific gravity, a key market quality trait for potato, by mid-century. These results demonstrate that the use of more complex climate projections that extend beyond a simple incremental change can provide additional insights into the future impacts of climate change on crop production and the accompanying uncertainty.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population.

PubMed

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-02-10

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth.

Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population

PubMed Central

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Caswell, Hal; Barbraud, Christophe; Holland, Marika; Strœve, Julienne; Weimerskirch, Henri

2009-01-01

Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962–2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from ≈6,000 to ≈400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. PMID:19171908

Future climate and surface mass balance of Svalbard glaciers in an RCP8.5 climate scenario: a study with the regional climate model MAR forced by MIROC5

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lang, C.; Fettweis, X.; Erpicum, M.

2015-05-01

We have performed a future projection of the climate and surface mass balance (SMB) of Svalbard with the MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) regional climate model forced by MIROC5 (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate), following the RCP8.5 scenario at a spatial resolution of 10 km. MAR predicts a similar evolution of increasing surface melt everywhere in Svalbard followed by a sudden acceleration of melt around 2050, with a larger melt increase in the south compared to the north of the archipelago. This melt acceleration around 2050 is mainly driven by the albedo-melt feedback associated with the expansion of the ablation/bare ice zone. This effect is dampened in part as the solar radiation itself is projected to decrease due to a cloudiness increase. The near-surface temperature is projected to increase more in winter than in summer as the temperature is already close to 0 °C in summer. The model also projects a stronger winter west-to-east temperature gradient, related to the large decrease of sea ice cover around Svalbard. By 2085, SMB is projected to become negative over all of Svalbard's glaciated regions, leading to the rapid degradation of the firn layer.

Modeling Impacts of Climate and Land Use Change on Ecosystem Processes to Quantify Exposure to Climate Change in Two Landscape Conservation Cooperatives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Quackenbush, A.

2015-12-01

Urban land cover and associated impervious surface area is expected to increase by as much as 50% over the next few decades across substantial portions of the United States. In combination with urban expansion, increases in temperature and changes in precipitation are expected to impact ecosystems through changes in productivity, disturbance and hydrological properties. In this study, we use the NASA Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System Biogeochemical Cycle (TOPS-BGC) model to explore the combined impacts of urbanization and climate change on hydrologic dynamics (snowmelt, runoff, and evapotranspiration) and vegetation carbon uptake (gross productivity). The model is driven using land cover predictions from the Spatially Explicit Regional Growth Model (SERGoM) to quantify projected changes in impervious surface area, and climate projections from the 30 arc-second NASA Earth Exchange Downscaled Climate Projection (NEX-DCP30) dataset derived from the CMIP5 climate scenarios. We present the modeling approach and an analysis of the ecosystem impacts projected to occur in the US, with an emphasis on protected areas in the Great Northern and Appalachian Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCC). Under the ensemble average of the CMIP5 models and land cover change scenarios for both representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, both LCCs are predicted to experience increases in maximum and minimum temperatures as well as annual average precipitation. In the Great Northern LCC, this is projected to lead to increased annual runoff, especially under RCP 8.5. Earlier melt of the winter snow pack and increased evapotranspiration, however, reduces summer streamflow and soil water content, leading to a net reduction in vegetation productivity across much of the Great Northern LCC, with stronger trends occurring under RCP 8.5. Increased runoff is also projected to occur in the Appalachian LCC under both RCP 4.5 and 8.5. However, under RCP 4.5, the model predicts that the warmer wetter conditions will lead to increases in vegetation productivity across much of the Appalachian LCC, while under RCP 8.5, the effects of increased precipitation are not enough to keep up with increases in evapotranspiration, leading to projected reductions in vegetation productivity for this LCC by the end of this century.

Diabetic nephropathy research in China: Data analysis and review from the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

PubMed

Wan, Qiang; Xu, Yanying; Dong, Erdan

2015-05-01

As the largest funding agency of natural science of China, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) has made great efforts in promoting the development of diabetic nephropathy (DN) research in recent years. The aim of the current study is to summarize the diabetic nephropathy research in China by analyzing NSFC-funded projects. Data on all projects in the DN field funded by NSFC from 1986 to 2013 were collected. The funding tendency, funding areas, and hotspots in the DN field, and major research institutions, were analyzed. As one output of this support, outstanding research groups in China, and their representative studies, are also highlighted. From 1986 to 2013, the NSFC has funded a total of 248 projects in the DN field, with a total funding amount of 91.5 million RMB (US$14.9 million). A rapid increase could be seen in the past 5 years, with an average annual 30% increase in projects numbers and a 52% increase in funding amount. All fields in DN research have been covered by the NSFC, including etiology, pathophysiology, diagnostics, and therapeutics. Along with increased funding of the DN research, there has been a growth in the papers published in Science Citation Index journals by Chinese scholars. In the past decade, the funding scale and funding budget have increased dramatically. Benefiting from this, DN research in China has also made considerable progression. © 2015 Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Audit and Assessment Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moore, Craig

Project to assess 46 low-income multifamily residences owned and managed by THRHA in up to 14 southeast Alaska communities. The Objective of project was to identify efficiency measures to reduce energy costs by 30% for low-income multifamily housing by; 1. Decreasing energy demand by increasing multifamily housing energy efficiency; 2. Reducing household energy consumption through energy conservation education and installation of energy upgrades; and 3. Projecting energy savings based on fossil fuel reduction to environmentally and economically benefit Tribal southeast communities

Learning at Work. Leeds Adult Learners at Work Project Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Payne, John; And Others

A study evaluated the extent to which Employee Development (ED) projects provided increased opportunities for continuing general education and training for employees in Britain. A questionnaire that sought to relate employer involvement in ED to wider issues of workplace culture, personnel, and training policies was sent to 70 firms; 50 percent…

The Effects of a Creative Commons Approach on Collaborative Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Chen-Chung; Tao, Shu-Yuan; Chen, Wei-Hung; Chen, Sherry Y.; Liu, Baw-Jhiune

2013-01-01

Social media on the World Wide Web, such as Wiki, are increasingly applied to support collaborative learning for students to conduct a project together. However, recent studies indicated that students, learning in the collaborative project, may not actively contribute to the collaborative work and are involved only in a limited level of positive…

A Model Inquiry-Based Genetics Experiment for Introductory Biology Students: Screening for Enhancers & Suppressors of Ptpmeg

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Setty, Sumana; Kosinski-Collins, Melissa S.

2015-01-01

It has been noted that undergraduate project-based laboratories lead to increased interest in scientific research and student understanding of biological concepts. We created a novel, inquiry-based, multiweek genetics research project studying Ptpmeg, for the Introductory Biology Laboratory course at Brandeis University. Ptpmeg is a protein…

A review on effectiveness of best management practices in improving hydrology and water quality: Needs and opportunities

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Best management practices (BMPs) have been widely used to address hydrology and water quality issues in both agricultural and urban areas. Increasing numbers of BMPs have been studied in research projects and implemented in watershed management projects, but a gap remains in quantifying their effect...

Residents' Perceptions toward Utility-Scale Wind Farm Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, Joseph; Romich, Eric

2015-01-01

Increased development of wind farms in the U.S. has fostered debates surrounding the siting and support for the projects. Prior research demonstrates the importance of understanding the attitudes and opinions of community members when developing projects. This article reviews a case study of an Ohio community that integrated a local survey to…

"Who Did What?": A Participatory Action Research Project to Increase Group Capacity for Advocacy

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia-Iriarte, E.; Kramer, J. C.; Kramer, J. M.; Hammel, J.

2009-01-01

Background: This participatory action research (PAR) project involved a collaboration with a self-advocacy group of people with intellectual disabilities that sought to build group capacity for advocacy. Materials and Methods: This study used a focus group, sustained participatory engagement and a reflexive process to gather qualitative and…

Authentic Project-Based Design of Professional Development for Teachers Studying Online and Blended Teaching

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dabner, Nicki; Davis, Niki; Zaka, Pinelopi

2012-01-01

Online learning and teaching is rapidly increasing in many countries, including high schools in the USA and teacher education worldwide. Online and blended approaches to professional and organizational development are, therefore, becoming essential to enable effective and equitable education. Authentic project-based learning to support the…

"Making Time for What Matters Most." I3 Development Project: Year 5 Evaluation Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Donahue, Tara; Ho, Hsiang-Yah; Knotts, Ashli

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study evaluates the work completed in the "Jefferson County Public Schools" (JCPS) project, "Making Time for What Matters Most", aiming to improve student achievement, narrow achievement gaps, strengthen students' college readiness skills, and increase the percentages of students who graduate and go on to…

Impacts of climate change and variability on transportation systems and infrastructure : Gulf Coast study, phase 2 : task 2 : climate variability and change in Mobile, Alabama.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2012-09-01

Despite increasing confidence in global climate change projections in recent years, projections of : climate effects at local scales remains scarce. Location-specific risks to transportation systems : imposed by changes in climate are not yet well kn...

Skills Conversion Project: Chapter 21, Project Organization and Operations. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

National Society of Professional Engineers, Washington, DC.

The increasing problem of unemployment among technical professionals from the aerospace and defense industry and their general lack of employment opportunities dictated a need for study of potential profitable expansion of use of these personnel in other areas. Also, recommendations were needed for developing mechanisms to start the transition of…

Student Teacher Experiences in a Service-Learning Project for Children with Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wilkinson, Shawn; Harvey, William J.; Bloom, Gordon A.; Joober, Ridha; Grizenko, Natalie

2013-01-01

Background: Service learning (SL) is a collaborative relationship between university professors, their students, and community partners who combine academic learning and active participation to address community issues. Previous studies in SL and physical education teacher education (PETE) found SL projects increased opportunities for learning and…

Building a Foundation: How Technology-Rich Project-Based Learning Transformed Talladega County Schools. Case Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jones, Rachel; Hall, Sara White; Thigpen, Kamila; Murray, Tom; Loschert, Kristen

2015-01-01

This report demonstrates how one predominantly low-income school district dramatically improved student engagement in the classroom and increased high school graduation rates through project-based learning (PBL) and the effective use of technology. The report, which includes short video segments with educators and students, focuses on Talladega…

School Furniture Development: An Evaluation. Educational Studies and Documents No. 16.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Scriven (F.B.) and Associates, London (England).

Unesco is playing an increasingly important role in helping developing countries adapt school furniture in line with educational methods and goals. This publication includes an independent evaluation of Unesco's school furniture projects in Sri Lanka and Tunisia. For purposes of comparison, evaluation of a furniture project carried out by the…

Wildlife Habitat Improvement Guide for Minnesota Youth.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Halsey, Clifton

This publication outlines projects to increase wildlife, primarily fowl and deer, and to help rural youth better understand wildlife requirements. The publication outlines six basic steps that are involved in initiating a wildlife project. These are: (1) Determine the types of wild animals for which the land is best suited; (2) Study the life…

Amplified plant turnover in response to climate change forecast by Late Quaternary records

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nogués-Bravo, D.; Veloz, S.; Holt, B. G.; Singarayer, J.; Valdes, P.; Davis, B.; Brewer, S. C.; Williams, J. W.; Rahbek, C.

2016-12-01

Conservation decisions are informed by twenty-first-century climate impact projections that typically predict high extinction risk. Conversely, the palaeorecord shows strong sensitivity of species abundances and distributions to past climate changes, but few clear instances of extinctions attributable to rising temperatures. However, few studies have incorporated palaeoecological data into projections of future distributions. Here we project changes in abundance and conservation status under a climate warming scenario for 187 European and North American plant taxa using niche-based models calibrated against taxa-climate relationships for the past 21,000 years. We find that incorporating long-term data into niche-based models increases the magnitude of projected future changes for plant abundances and community turnover. The larger projected changes in abundances and community turnover translate into different, and often more threatened, projected IUCN conservation status for declining tree taxa, compared with traditional approaches. An average of 18.4% (North America) and 15.5% (Europe) of taxa switch IUCN categories when compared with single-time model results. When taxa categorized as `Least Concern' are excluded, the palaeo-calibrated models increase, on average, the conservation threat status of 33.2% and 56.8% of taxa. Notably, however, few models predict total disappearance of taxa, suggesting resilience for these taxa, if climate were the only extinction driver. Long-term studies linking palaeorecords and forecasting techniques have the potential to improve conservation assessments.

NASA/DOD Aerospace Knowledge Diffusion Research Project. Paper 36: Technical uncertainty as a correlate of information use by US industry-affiliated aerospace engineers and scientists

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pinelli, Thomas E.; Glassman, Nanci A.; Affelder, Linda O.; Hecht, Laura M.; Kennedy, John M.; Barclay, Rebecca O.

1994-01-01

This paper reports the results of an exploratory study that investigated the influence of technical uncertainty on the use of information and information sources by U.S. industry-affiliated aerospace engineers and scientists in completing or solving a project, task, or problem. Data were collected through a self-administered questionnaire. Survey participants were U.S. aerospace engineers and scientists whose names appeared on the Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) mailing list. The results support the findings of previous research and the following study assumptions. Information and information-source use differ for projects, problems, and tasks with high and low technical uncertainty. As technical uncertainty increases, information-source use changes from internal to external and from informal to formal sources. As technical uncertainty increases, so too does the use of federally funded aerospace research and development (R&D). The use of formal information sources to learn about federally funded aerospace R&D differs for projects, problems, and tasks with high and low technical uncertainty.

Heat pump study: Tricks of the trade that can pump up efficiency

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jenkins, V.

Two years ago, many homeowners in an area near Auburn, California were unhappy with their heat pumps. The local utility, Pacific Gas Electric (PG E), received unusually large numbers of complaints from them of high electricity bills and poor system operation. PG E wanted to know whether correctable mechanical problems were to blame. It hired John Proctor, then of Building Resources Management Corp., to design and implement a study to address the heat pump customers' complaints. The Pacific Gas Electric Heat Pump Efficiency and Super Weatherization Pilot Project was the result. The first objective of the Pilot Project was tomore » identify the major problems and their prevalence in the existing residential heat pump installations. The second was to design a correction strategy that would cost PG E $400 or less per site. Participating homeowners would also share some of the costs. Project goals were improved homeowner comfort and satisfaction, increased energy efficiency of mechanical systems, and 10-20% space heating energy savings. By improving system operations, the project wished to increase customer acceptance of heat pumps in general.« less

Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming

PubMed Central

Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Mackay, Murray; Stockwell, Jason D.; Thiery, Wim; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Augusto-Silva, Pétala B.; Baulch, Helen M.; de Eyto, Elvira; Hejzlar, Josef; Kangur, Külli; Kirillin, Georgiy; Pierson, Don C.; Rusak, James A.; Sadro, Steven; Woolway, R. Iestyn

2017-01-01

Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (Tw-Ta) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (QH). If QH is directed upward, corresponding to positive Tw-Ta, it can enhance CO2 and CH4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative Tw-Ta across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward QH), with Tw-Ta becoming increasingly negative with increasing Ta. Further examination of Tw-Ta using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that Tw-Ta is linearly related to Ta. Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative Tw-Ta with increasing annual mean Ta since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative Tw-Ta, thereby reducing CO2 and CH4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere. PMID:28262715

Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A.; Mackay, Murray; Stockwell, Jason D.; Thiery, Wim; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Augusto-Silva, Pétala B.; Baulch, Helen M.; de Eyto, Elvira; Hejzlar, Josef; Kangur, Külli; Kirillin, Georgiy; Pierson, Don C.; Rusak, James A.; Sadro, Steven; Woolway, R. Iestyn

2017-03-01

Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (Tw-Ta) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (QH). If QH is directed upward, corresponding to positive Tw-Ta, it can enhance CO2 and CH4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative Tw-Ta across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward QH), with Tw-Ta becoming increasingly negative with increasing Ta. Further examination of Tw-Ta using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that Tw-Ta is linearly related to Ta. Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative Tw-Ta with increasing annual mean Ta since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative Tw-Ta, thereby reducing CO2 and CH4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere.

Does internal climate variability overwhelm climate change signals in streamflow? The upper Po and Rhone basin case studies.

PubMed

Fatichi, S; Rimkus, S; Burlando, P; Bordoy, R

2014-09-15

Projections of climate change effects in streamflow are increasingly required to plan water management strategies. These projections are however largely uncertain due to the spread among climate model realizations, internal climate variability, and difficulties in transferring climate model results at the spatial and temporal scales required by catchment hydrology. A combination of a stochastic downscaling methodology and distributed hydrological modeling was used in the ACQWA project to provide projections of future streamflow (up to year 2050) for the upper Po and Rhone basins, respectively located in northern Italy and south-western Switzerland. Results suggest that internal (stochastic) climate variability is a fundamental source of uncertainty, typically comparable or larger than the projected climate change signal. Therefore, climate change effects in streamflow mean, frequency, and seasonality can be masked by natural climatic fluctuations in large parts of the analyzed regions. An exception to the overwhelming role of stochastic variability is represented by high elevation catchments fed by glaciers where streamflow is expected to be considerably reduced due to glacier retreat, with consequences appreciable in the main downstream rivers in August and September. Simulations also identify regions (west upper Rhone and Toce, Ticino river basins) where a strong precipitation increase in the February to April period projects streamflow beyond the range of natural climate variability during the melting season. This study emphasizes the importance of including internal climate variability in climate change analyses, especially when compared to the limited uncertainty that would be accounted for by few deterministic projections. The presented results could be useful in guiding more specific impact studies, although design or management decisions should be better based on reliability and vulnerability criteria as suggested by recent literature. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Pace of shifts in climate regions increases with global temperature

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahlstein, Irina; Daniel, John S.; Solomon, Susan

2013-08-01

Human-induced climate change causes significant changes in local climates, which in turn lead to changes in regional climate zones. Large shifts in the world distribution of Köppen-Geiger climate classifications by the end of this century have been projected. However, only a few studies have analysed the pace of these shifts in climate zones, and none has analysed whether the pace itself changes with increasing global mean temperature. In this study, pace refers to the rate at which climate zones change as a function of amount of global warming. Here we show that present climate projections suggest that the pace of shifting climate zones increases approximately linearly with increasing global temperature. Using the RCP8.5 emissions pathway, the pace nearly doubles by the end of this century and about 20% of all land area undergoes a change in its original climate. This implies that species will have increasingly less time to adapt to Köppen zone changes in the future, which is expected to increase the risk of extinction.

Dependence of future mortality changes on global CO2 concentrations: A review.

PubMed

Lee, Jae Young; Choi, Hayoung; Kim, Ho

2018-05-01

The heterogeneity among previous studies of future mortality projections due to climate change has often hindered comparisons and syntheses of resulting impacts. To address this challenge, the present study introduced a novel method to normalize the results from projection studies according to different baseline and projection periods and climate scenarios, thereby facilitating comparison and synthesis. This study reviewed the 15 previous studies involving projected climate change-related mortality under Representative Concentration Pathways. To synthesize their results, we first reviewed the important study design elements that affected the reported results in previous studies. Then, we normalized the reported results by CO 2 concentration in order to eliminate the effects of the baseline period, projection period, and climate scenario choices. For twenty-five locations worldwide, the normalized percentage changes in temperature-attributable mortality per 100 ppm increase in global CO 2 concentrations ranged between 41.9% and 330%, whereas those of total mortality ranged between 0.3% and 4.8%. The normalization methods presented in this work will guide future studies to provide their results in a normalized format and facilitate research synthesis to reinforce our understanding on the risk of climate change. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impact of climate change on ozone-related mortality and morbidity in Europe.

PubMed

Orru, Hans; Andersson, Camilla; Ebi, Kristie L; Langner, Joakim; Aström, Christofer; Forsberg, Bertil

2013-02-01

Ozone is a highly oxidative pollutant formed from precursors in the presence of sunlight, associated with respiratory morbidity and mortality. All else being equal, concentrations of ground-level ozone are expected to increase due to climate change. Ozone-related health impacts under a changing climate are projected using emission scenarios, models and epidemiological data. European ozone concentrations are modelled with the model of atmospheric transport and chemistry (MATCH)-RCA3 (50×50 km). Projections from two climate models, ECHAM4 and HadCM3, are applied under greenhouse gas emission scenarios A2 and A1B, respectively. We applied a European-wide exposure-response function to gridded population data and country-specific baseline mortality and morbidity. Comparing the current situation (1990-2009) with the baseline period (1961-1990), the largest increase in ozone-associated mortality and morbidity due to climate change (4-5%) have occurred in Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands and the UK. Comparing the baseline period and the future periods (2021-2050 and 2041-2060), much larger increases in ozone-related mortality and morbidity are projected for Belgium, France, Spain and Portugal, with the impact being stronger using the climate projection from ECHAM4 (A2). However, in Nordic and Baltic countries the same magnitude of decrease is projected. The current study suggests that projected effects of climate change on ozone concentrations could differentially influence mortality and morbidity across Europe.

[Doctoral thesis projects for medical students? Retrospective estimation of the fraction of successfully completed medical doctoral thesis projects at Witten/Herdecke University].

PubMed

Scharfenberg, Janna; Schaper, Katharina; Krummenauer, Frank

2014-01-01

The German "Dr med" plays a specific role in doctoral thesis settings since students may start the underlying doctoral project during their studies at medical school. If a Medical Faculty principally encourages this approach, then it should support the students in performing the respective projects as efficiently as possible. Consequently, it must be ensured that students are able to implement and complete a doctoral project in parallel to their studies. As a characteristic efficiency feature of these "Dr med" initiatives, the proportion of doctoral projects successfully completed shortly after graduating from medical school is proposed and illustrated. The proposed characteristic can be estimated by the time period between the state examination (date of completion of the qualifying medical examination) and the doctoral examination. Completion of the doctoral project "during their medical studies" was then characterised by a doctoral examination no later than 12 months after the qualifying medical state examination. To illustrate the estimation and interpretation of this characteristic, it was retrospectively estimated on the basis of the full sample of all doctorates successfully completed between July 2009 and June 2012 at the Department of Human Medicine at the Faculty of Health of the University of Witten/Herdecke. During the period of investigation defined, a total number of 56 doctoral examinations were documented, 30 % of which were completed within 12 months after the qualifying medical state examination (95% confidence interval 19 to 44 %). The median duration between state and doctoral examination was 27 months. The proportion of doctoral projects completed parallel to the medical studies increased during the investigation period from 14 % in the first year (July 2009 till June 2010) to 40 % in the third year (July 2011 till June 2012). Only about a third of all "Dr med" projects at the Witten/Herdecke Faculty of Health were completed during or close to the qualifying medical studies. This proportion, however, increased after the introduction of a curriculum on research methodology and practice in 2010; prospective longitudinal studies will have to clarify whether this is causal or mere chronological coincidence. In summary, the proposed method for determining the process efficiency of a medical faculty's "Dr med" programme has proven to be both feasible and informative. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier GmbH.

A Canonical Repsonse of Precipitation Characteristics to Global Warming from CMIP5 Models

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lau, William K.-M.; Wu, H.-T.; Kim, K.-M.

2013-01-01

In this study, we find from analyses of projections of 14 CMIP5 models a robust, canonical global response in rainfall characteristics to a warming climate. Under a scenario of 1% increase per year of CO2 emission, the model ensemble projects globally more heavy precipitation (+7+/-2.4%/K1), less moderate precipitation (-2.5+/-0.6%/K), more light precipitation (+1.8+/-1.3%/K1), and increased length of dry (no-rain) periods (+4.7+/-2.1%/K). Regionally, a majority of the models project a consistent response with more heavy precipitation over climatologically wet regions of the deep tropics, especially the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the Asian monsoon regions, and more dry periods over the land areas of the subtropics and the tropical marginal convective zones. Our results suggest that increased CO2 emissions induce a global adjustment in circulation and moisture availability manifested in basic changes in global precipitation characteristics, including increasing risks of severe floods and droughts in preferred geographic locations worldwide.

Locus coeruleus to basolateral amygdala noradrenergic projections promote anxiety-like behavior.

PubMed

McCall, Jordan G; Siuda, Edward R; Bhatti, Dionnet L; Lawson, Lamley A; McElligott, Zoe A; Stuber, Garret D; Bruchas, Michael R

2017-07-14

Increased tonic activity of locus coeruleus noradrenergic (LC-NE) neurons induces anxiety-like and aversive behavior. While some information is known about the afferent circuitry that endogenously drives this neural activity and behavior, the downstream receptors and anatomical projections that mediate these acute risk aversive behavioral states via the LC-NE system remain unresolved. Here we use a combination of retrograde tracing, fast-scan cyclic voltammetry, electrophysiology, and in vivo optogenetics with localized pharmacology to identify neural substrates downstream of increased tonic LC-NE activity in mice. We demonstrate that photostimulation of LC-NE fibers in the BLA evokes norepinephrine release in the basolateral amygdala (BLA), alters BLA neuronal activity, conditions aversion, and increases anxiety-like behavior. Additionally, we report that β-adrenergic receptors mediate the anxiety-like phenotype of increased NE release in the BLA. These studies begin to illustrate how the complex efferent system of the LC-NE system selectively mediates behavior through distinct receptor and projection-selective mechanisms.

The demographic changes of menopausal and geripausal women in Korea.

PubMed

Kim, Mi Young; Im, Sun-Wha; Park, Hyoung Moo

2015-02-01

Osteoporosis and resultant fracture seems to be the most common skeletal disease, affecting female exclusively. Osteoporosis increases exponentially with menopause and age. Therefore the demographic data seems to be the most important & fundamental for the study of osteoporosis epidemiology. This study was to analyzed population projection from 1960 to 2060. We evaluated the demographic change of female, postmenopausal and elderly geripausal population in South Korea using Korean statistical information service database as basic fundamental data for osteoporosis epidemiology. According to population projection, the total female population will be exceeds the total male population since 2015 and maximize up to 2030. In 2030, nearly half of female will become postmenopausal and one fourth of women elderly will be geripausal. Of total female population in 2060, the proportion of postmenopausal women will be increased up to 59.8%. According to population projection in South Korea, six of ten women in 2060 will be postmenopausal and seven of ten postmenopausal women geripausal. As expected to increase proportion of elderly women, dramatic rise of osteoporosis and osteoporotic fracture also expected. Health providers pay more attention to postmenopausal and geripausal women health care.

Projected changes of the southwest Australian wave climate under two atmospheric greenhouse gas concentration pathways

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wandres, Moritz; Pattiaratchi, Charitha; Hemer, Mark A.

2017-09-01

Incident wave energy flux is responsible for sediment transport and coastal erosion in wave-dominated regions such as the southwestern Australian (SWA) coastal zone. To evaluate future wave climates under increased greenhouse gas concentration scenarios, past studies have forced global wave simulations with wind data sourced from global climate model (GCM) simulations. However, due to the generally coarse spatial resolution of global climate and wave simulations, the effects of changing offshore wave conditions and sea level rise on the nearshore wave climate are still relatively unknown. To address this gap of knowledge, we investigated the projected SWA offshore, shelf, and nearshore wave climate under two potential future greenhouse gas concentration trajectories (representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This was achieved by downscaling an ensemble of global wave simulations, forced with winds from GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5), into two regional domains, using the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) wave model. The wave climate is modeled for a historical 20-year time slice (1986-2005) and a projected future 20-year time-slice (2081-2100) for both scenarios. Furthermore, we compare these scenarios to the effects of considering sea-level rise (SLR) alone (stationary wave climate), and to the effects of combined SLR and projected wind-wave change. Results indicated that the SWA shelf and nearshore wave climate is more sensitive to changes in offshore mean wave direction than offshore wave heights. Nearshore, wave energy flux was projected to increase by ∼10% in exposed areas and decrease by ∼10% in sheltered areas under both climate scenarios due to a change in wave directions, compared to an overall increase of 2-4% in offshore wave heights. With SLR, the annual mean wave energy flux was projected to increase by up to 20% in shallow water (< 30 m) as a result of decreased wave dissipation. In winter months, the longshore wave energy flux, which is responsible for littoral drift, is expected to increase by up to 39% (62%) under the RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) greenhouse gas concentration pathway with SLR. The study highlights the importance of using high-resolution wave simulations to evaluate future regional wave climates, since the coastal wave climate is more responsive to changes in wave direction and sea level than offshore wave heights.

[Evaluating the efficiency of basic public health service project in Beijing rural areas based on data envelopment analysis].

PubMed

Zhang, Gui-lin; Pan, Xi-long

2013-04-18

To measure the efficiency changes of basic public health service in Beijing rural areas and to provide some suggestions for the basic public health service project throughout China. In the study, stratified random samples from 32 township health centers (THCs) were measured by data envelopment analysis (DEA) model with the panel data from 2007 to 2009. (1) The average total efficiency score of samples was 0.972. The TE non-efficient THCs were with excess in all input indicators and insufficient outputs in technology management, health promotion and chronic disease management. (2) The total factor productivity (TFP) from 2007 to 2008 increased 8.8%, which was attributed to technology change. The TFP decreased by 6.6% from 2008 to 2009, but the technical efficiency increased by 3.3%. There is room for improvemrnt in the basic public health service project in Beijing rural areas. Scale efficiency should be improved and the common development of technical efficiency and technology progress promoted in order to increase the project outputs.

Army Corps of Engineers: Factors Contributing to Cost Increases and Schedule Delays in the Olmsted Locks and Dam Project

DTIC Science & Technology

2017-02-01

to cost increases and schedule delays and (2) what is known about the costs of benefits foregone because of project delays. GAO compared the...Contributors to Cost Increases and Schedule Delays 13 Total Cost of Benefits Foregone from Project Delays at Olmsted Is Uncertain 27 Agency Comments...would take 7 years. The Corps also estimated benefits , such as transportation cost savings, associated with the project. However, once the project was

Assessment of climate change impact on water diversion strategies of Melamchi Water Supply Project in Nepal

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shrestha, Sangam; Shrestha, Manish; Babel, Mukand S.

2017-04-01

This paper analyzes the climate change impact on water diversion plan of Melamchi Water Supply Project (MWSP) in Nepal. The MWSP is an interbasin water transfer project aimed at diverting water from the Melamchi River of the Indrawati River basin to Kathmandu Valley for drinking water purpose. Future temperature and precipitation of the basin were predicted using the outputs of two regional climate models (RCMs) and two general circulation models (GCMs) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios which were then used as inputs to Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the water availability and evaluate the water diversion strategies in the future. The average temperature of the basin is projected to increase by 2.35 to 4.25 °C under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively, by 2085s. The average precipitation in the basin is projected to increase by 6-18 % in the future. The annual water availability is projected to increase in the future; however, the variability is observed in monthly water availability in the basin. The water supply and demand scenarios of Kathmandu Valley was also examined by considering the population increase, unaccounted for water and water diversion from MWSP in the future. It is observed that even with the additional supply of water from MWSP and reduction of unaccounted for water, the Kathmandu Valley will be still under water scarcity in the future. The findings of this study can be helpful to formulate water supply and demand management strategies in Kathmandu Valley in the context of climate change in the future.

Can Observation Skills of Citizen Scientists Be Estimated Using Species Accumulation Curves?

PubMed Central

Kelling, Steve; Johnston, Alison; Hochachka, Wesley M.; Iliff, Marshall; Fink, Daniel; Gerbracht, Jeff; Lagoze, Carl; La Sorte, Frank A.; Moore, Travis; Wiggins, Andrea; Wong, Weng-Keen; Wood, Chris; Yu, Jun

2015-01-01

Volunteers are increasingly being recruited into citizen science projects to collect observations for scientific studies. An additional goal of these projects is to engage and educate these volunteers. Thus, there are few barriers to participation resulting in volunteer observers with varying ability to complete the project’s tasks. To improve the quality of a citizen science project’s outcomes it would be useful to account for inter-observer variation, and to assess the rarely tested presumption that participating in a citizen science projects results in volunteers becoming better observers. Here we present a method for indexing observer variability based on the data routinely submitted by observers participating in the citizen science project eBird, a broad-scale monitoring project in which observers collect and submit lists of the bird species observed while birding. Our method for indexing observer variability uses species accumulation curves, lines that describe how the total number of species reported increase with increasing time spent in collecting observations. We find that differences in species accumulation curves among observers equates to higher rates of species accumulation, particularly for harder-to-identify species, and reveals increased species accumulation rates with continued participation. We suggest that these properties of our analysis provide a measure of observer skill, and that the potential to derive post-hoc data-derived measurements of participant ability should be more widely explored by analysts of data from citizen science projects. We see the potential for inferential results from analyses of citizen science data to be improved by accounting for observer skill. PMID:26451728

Enhancing project-oriented learning by joining communities of practice and opening spaces for relatedness

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pascual, R.

2010-03-01

This article describes an extension to project-oriented learning to increase social construction of knowledge and learning. The focus is on: (a) maximising opportunities for students to share their knowledge with practitioners by joining communities of practice, and (b) increasing their intrinsic motivation by creating conditions for student's relatedness. The case study considers a last year capstone course in Mechanical Engineering. The work addresses innovative practices of active learning and beyond project-oriented learning through: (a) the development of a web-based decision support system, (b) meetings between the communities of students, maintenance engineers and academics, and (c) new off-campus group instances. The author hypothesises that this multi-modal approach increases deep learning and social impact of the educational process. Surveys to the actors support a successful achievement of the educational goals. The methodology can easily be extended to further improve the learning process.

Lessons learned from training peer-leaders to conduct Body Project workshops.

PubMed

Vanderkruik, Rachel; Strife, Samantha; Dimidjian, Sona

2017-01-01

The Body Project is a cognitive-dissonance intervention that is effective in improving body satisfaction for high school and college aged women. The Body Project can be implemented by trained peers, thus increasing its potential for broad and cost-effective dissemination. Little is known, however, about peer-leaders' perceptions of their training needs and preferences to deliver prevention programs. This qualitative study explored the perceptions of training strengths and areas of improvement among 14 Body Project peer-leaders at a college campus through a series of focus groups. Recommendations are made to inform training for the Body Project as well as peer-led prevention and treatment interventions more broadly.

Projected change in East Asian summer monsoon by dynamic downscaling: Moisture budget analysis

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jung, Chun-Yong; Shin, Ho-Jeong; Jang, Chan Joo; Kim, Hyung-Jin

2015-02-01

The summer monsoon considerably affects water resource and natural hazards including flood and drought in East Asia, one of the world's most densely populated area. In this study, we investigate future changes in summer precipitation over East Asia induced by global warming through dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecast model. We have selected a global model from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 based on an objective evaluation for East Asian summer monsoon and applied its climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario to a pseudo global warming method. Unlike the previous studies that focused on a qualitative description of projected precipitation changes over East Asia, this study tried to identify the physical causes of the precipitation changes by analyzing a local moisture budget. Projected changes in precipitation over the eastern foothills area of Tibetan Plateau including Sichuan Basin and Yangtze River displayed a contrasting pattern: a decrease in its northern area and an increase in its southern area. A local moisture budget analysis indicated the precipitation increase over the southern area can be mainly attributed to an increase in horizontal wind convergence and surface evaporation. On the other hand, the precipitation decrease over the northern area can be largely explained by horizontal advection of dry air from the northern continent and by divergent wind flow. Regional changes in future precipitation in East Asia are likely to be attributed to different mechanisms which can be better resolved by regional dynamical downscaling.

The CODATwins Project: The Cohort Description of Collaborative Project of Development of Anthropometrical Measures in Twins to Study Macro-Environmental Variation in Genetic and Environmental Effects on Anthropometric Traits.

PubMed

Silventoinen, Karri; Jelenkovic, Aline; Sund, Reijo; Honda, Chika; Aaltonen, Sari; Yokoyama, Yoshie; Tarnoki, Adam D; Tarnoki, David L; Ning, Feng; Ji, Fuling; Pang, Zengchang; Ordoñana, Juan R; Sánchez-Romera, Juan F; Colodro-Conde, Lucia; Burt, S Alexandra; Klump, Kelly L; Medland, Sarah E; Montgomery, Grant W; Kandler, Christian; McAdams, Tom A; Eley, Thalia C; Gregory, Alice M; Saudino, Kimberly J; Dubois, Lise; Boivin, Michel; Haworth, Claire M A; Plomin, Robert; Öncel, Sevgi Y; Aliev, Fazil; Stazi, Maria A; Fagnani, Corrado; D'Ippolito, Cristina; Craig, Jeffrey M; Saffery, Richard; Siribaddana, Sisira H; Hotopf, Matthew; Sumathipala, Athula; Spector, Timothy; Mangino, Massimo; Lachance, Genevieve; Gatz, Margaret; Butler, David A; Bayasgalan, Gombojav; Narandalai, Danshiitsoodol; Freitas, Duarte L; Maia, José Antonio; Harden, K Paige; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M; Christensen, Kaare; Skytthe, Axel; Kyvik, Kirsten O; Hong, Changhee; Chong, Youngsook; Derom, Catherine A; Vlietinck, Robert F; Loos, Ruth J F; Cozen, Wendy; Hwang, Amie E; Mack, Thomas M; He, Mingguang; Ding, Xiaohu; Chang, Billy; Silberg, Judy L; Eaves, Lindon J; Maes, Hermine H; Cutler, Tessa L; Hopper, John L; Aujard, Kelly; Magnusson, Patrik K E; Pedersen, Nancy L; Aslan, Anna K Dahl; Song, Yun-Mi; Yang, Sarah; Lee, Kayoung; Baker, Laura A; Tuvblad, Catherine; Bjerregaard-Andersen, Morten; Beck-Nielsen, Henning; Sodemann, Morten; Heikkilä, Kauko; Tan, Qihua; Zhang, Dongfeng; Swan, Gary E; Krasnow, Ruth; Jang, Kerry L; Knafo-Noam, Ariel; Mankuta, David; Abramson, Lior; Lichtenstein, Paul; Krueger, Robert F; McGue, Matt; Pahlen, Shandell; Tynelius, Per; Duncan, Glen E; Buchwald, Dedra; Corley, Robin P; Huibregtse, Brooke M; Nelson, Tracy L; Whitfield, Keith E; Franz, Carol E; Kremen, William S; Lyons, Michael J; Ooki, Syuichi; Brandt, Ingunn; Nilsen, Thomas Sevenius; Inui, Fujio; Watanabe, Mikio; Bartels, Meike; van Beijsterveldt, Toos C E M; Wardle, Jane; Llewellyn, Clare H; Fisher, Abigail; Rebato, Esther; Martin, Nicholas G; Iwatani, Yoshinori; Hayakawa, Kazuo; Rasmussen, Finn; Sung, Joohon; Harris, Jennifer R; Willemsen, Gonneke; Busjahn, Andreas; Goldberg, Jack H; Boomsma, Dorret I; Hur, Yoon-Mi; Sørensen, Thorkild I A; Kaprio, Jaakko

2015-08-01

For over 100 years, the genetics of human anthropometric traits has attracted scientific interest. In particular, height and body mass index (BMI, calculated as kg/m2) have been under intensive genetic research. However, it is still largely unknown whether and how heritability estimates vary between human populations. Opportunities to address this question have increased recently because of the establishment of many new twin cohorts and the increasing accumulation of data in established twin cohorts. We started a new research project to analyze systematically (1) the variation of heritability estimates of height, BMI and their trajectories over the life course between birth cohorts, ethnicities and countries, and (2) to study the effects of birth-related factors, education and smoking on these anthropometric traits and whether these effects vary between twin cohorts. We identified 67 twin projects, including both monozygotic (MZ) and dizygotic (DZ) twins, using various sources. We asked for individual level data on height and weight including repeated measurements, birth related traits, background variables, education and smoking. By the end of 2014, 48 projects participated. Together, we have 893,458 height and weight measures (52% females) from 434,723 twin individuals, including 201,192 complete twin pairs (40% monozygotic, 40% same-sex dizygotic and 20% opposite-sex dizygotic) representing 22 countries. This project demonstrates that large-scale international twin studies are feasible and can promote the use of existing data for novel research purposes.

The CODAtwins project: the cohort description of COllaborative project of Development of Anthropometrical measures in Twins to study macro-environmental variation in genetic and environmental effects on anthropometric traits

PubMed Central

Silventoinen, Karri; Jelenkovic, Aline; Sund, Reijo; Honda, Chika; Aaltonen, Sari; Yokoyama, Yoshie; Tarnoki, Adam D; Tarnoki, David L; Ning, Feng; Ji, Fuling; Pang, Zengchang; Ordoñana, Juan R; Sánchez-Romera, Juan F; Colodro-Conde, Lucia; Burt, S Alexandra; Klump, Kelly L; Medland, Sarah E; Montgomery, Grant W; Kandler, Christian; McAdams, Tom A; Eley, Thalia C; Gregory, Alice M; Saudino, Kimberly J; Dubois, Lise; Boivin, Michel; Haworth, Claire MA; Plomin, Robert; Öncel, Sevgi Y; Aliev, Fazil; Stazi, Maria A; Fagnani, Corrado; D'Ippolito, Cristina; Craig, Jeffrey M; Saffery, Richard; Siribaddana, Sisira H; Hotopf, Matthew; Sumathipala, Athula; Spector, Timothy; Mangino, Massimo; Lachance, Genevieve; Gatz, Margaret; Butler, David A; Bayasgalan, Gombojav; Narandalai, Danshiitsoodol; Freitas, Duarte L; Maia, José Antonio; Harden, K Paige; Tucker-Drob, Elliot M; Christensen, Kaare; Skytthe, Axel; Kyvik, Kirsten O; Hong, Changhee; Chong, Youngsook; Derom, Catherine A; Vlietinck, Robert F; Loos, Ruth JF; Cozen, Wendy; Hwang, Amie E; Mack, Thomas M; He, Mingguang; Ding, Xiaohu; Chang, Billy; Silberg, Judy L; Eaves, Lindon J; Maes, Hermine H; Cutler, Tessa L; Hopper, John L; Aujard, Kelly; Magnusson, Patrik KE; Pedersen, Nancy L; Dahl-Aslan, Anna K; Song, Yun-Mi; Yang, Sarah; Lee, Kayoung; Baker, Laura A; Tuvblad, Catherine; Bjerregaard-Andersen, Morten; Beck-Nielsen, Henning; Sodemann, Morten; Heikkilä, Kauko; Tan, Qihua; Zhang, Dongfeng; Swan, Gary E; Krasnow, Ruth; Jang, Kerry L; Knafo-Noam, Ariel; Mankuta, David; Abramson, Lior; Lichtenstein, Paul; Krueger, Robert F; McGue, Matt; Pahlen, Shandell; Tynelius, Per; Duncan, Glen E; Buchwald, Dedra; Corley, Robin P; Huibregtse, Brooke M; Nelson, Tracy L; Whitfield, Keith E; Franz, Carol E; Kremen, William S; Lyons, Michael J; Ooki, Syuichi; Brandt, Ingunn; Nilsen, Thomas Sevenius; Inui, Fujio; Watanabe, Mikio; Bartels, Meike; van Beijsterveldt, Toos CEM; Wardle, Jane; Llewellyn, Clare H; Fisher, Abigail; Rebato, Esther; Martin, Nicholas G; Iwatani, Yoshinori; Hayakawa, Kazuo; Rasmussen, Finn; Sung, Joohon; Harris, Jennifer R; Willemsen, Gonneke; Busjahn, Andreas; Goldberg, Jack H; Boomsma, Dorret I; Hur, Yoon-Mi; Sørensen, Thorkild IA; Kaprio, Jaakko

2015-01-01

For over one hundred years, the genetics of human anthropometric traits has attracted scientific interest. In particular, height and body mass index (BMI, calculated as kg/m2) have been under intensive genetic research. However, it is still largely unknown whether and how heritability estimates vary between human populations. Opportunities to address this question have increased recently because of the establishment of many new twin cohorts and the increasing accumulation of data in established twin cohorts. We started a new research project to analyze systematically 1) the variation of heritability estimates of height, BMI and their trajectories over the life course between birth cohorts, ethnicities and countries, and 2) to study the effects of birth related factors, education and smoking on these anthropometric traits and whether these effects vary between twin cohorts. We identified 67 twin projects including both monozygotic and dizygotic twins using various sources. We asked for individual level data on height and weight including repeated measurements, birth related traits, background variables, education and smoking. By the end of 2014, 48 projects participated. Together, we have 893,458 height and weight measures (52% females) from 434,723 twin individuals, including 201,192 complete twin pairs (40% monozygotic, 40% same-sex dizygotic and 20% opposite-sex dizygotic) representing 22 countries. This project demonstrates that large-scale international twin studies are feasible and can promote the use of existing data for novel research purposes. PMID:26014041

Projections of hepatitis A virus infection associated with flood events by 2020 and 2030 in Anhui Province, China.

PubMed

Gao, Lu; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Guoyong; Liu, Qiyong; Wang, Changke; Jiang, Baofa

2016-12-01

Assessing and responding to health risk of climate change is important because of its impact on the natural and societal ecosystems. More frequent and severe flood events will occur in China due to climate change. Given that population is projected to increase, more people will be vulnerable to flood events, which may lead to an increased incidence of HAV infection in the future. This population-based study is going to project the future health burden of HAV infection associated with flood events in Huai River Basin of China. The study area covered four cities of Anhui province in China, where flood events were frequent. Time-series adjusted Poisson regression model was developed to quantify the risks of flood events on HAV infection based on the number of daily cases during summer seasons from 2005 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Projections of HAV infection in 2020 and 2030 were estimated based on the scenarios of flood events and demographic data. Poisson regression model suggested that compared with the periods without flood events, the risks of severe flood events for HAV infection were significant (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.05-1.55), while risks were not significant from moderate flood events (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.72-1.87) and mild flood events (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI 0.87-1.48). Using the 2010 baseline data and the flood event scenarios (one severe flood event), increased incidence of HAV infection were estimated to be between 0.126/10 5 and 0.127/10 5 for 2020. Similarly, the increased HAV infection incidence for 2030 was projected to be between 0.382/10 5 and 0.399/10 5 . Our study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030. The results have implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infection during future flood events.

Payoffs of Participatory Action Research: Racial and Ethnic Minorities with Disabilities Reflect on their Research Experiences

PubMed Central

Oden, Kristin; Hernandez, Brigida; Hidalgo, Marco A.

2010-01-01

The disability community has experienced a long history of segregation and exclusion. With the passage of the Americans with Disabilities Act of 1990, discriminatory attitudes and behaviors would no longer be tolerated under law. In recent decades, disability researchers have also experienced a shift in how research projects are designed and conducted, with participatory action research (PAR) playing a prominent role. This paper provides an overview of these shifts and presents a qualitative study that explored the extent to which racial and ethnic minorities with disabilities were empowered by a PAR project that aimed to increase the physical accessibility of their communities. Content analysis of individual interviews revealed the following main themes: (1) increased knowledge of disability rights; (2) increased sense of independence; and (3) increased desire to advocate. Implications of this study include the important role that PAR may play in empowering racial and ethnic minorities with disabilities. PMID:20668640

National Health Expenditures: Short-Term Outlook and Long-Term Projections

PubMed Central

Freeland, Mark S.; Schendler, Carol Ellen

1981-01-01

This paper presents projections of national health expenditures by type of expenditure and source of funds for 1981, 1985, and 1990. Rapid growth in national health expenditures is projected to continue through 1990. National health expenditures increased 400 percent between 1965 and 1979, reaching $212 billion in 1979. As a proportion of the Gross National Product (GNP), health expenditures rose from 6.1 percent to 9.0 percent between 1965 and 1979. They are expected to continue to rise, reaching 10.8 percent by 1990. This study projects that, under current legislation, national health expenditures will reach $279 billion in 1981, $462 billion in 1985, and $821 billion in 1990. Sources of payments for these expenditures are shifting. From 1965 to 1979, the percentage of total health expenditures financed by public funds increased 17 percentage points—from 26 to 43 percent. The Federal share of public funds during this same period grew rapidly, from 51 percent in 1965 to 67 percent in 1979. This study projects that in 1985 approximately 45 percent of total health spending will be financed from public funds, of which 68 percent will be paid for by the Federal government. Public funds will account for 46 percent of total national health expenditures by 1990. PMID:10309366

Might the Rorschach be a projective test after all? Social projection of an undesired trait alters Rorschach Oral Dependency scores.

PubMed

Bornstein, Robert F

2007-06-01

The degree to which projection plays a role in Rorschach (Rorschach, 1921/1942) responding remains controversial, in part because extant data have yielded inconclusive results. In this investigation, I examined the impact of social projection on Rorschach Oral Dependency (ROD) scores using methods adapted from social cognition research. In Study 1, I prescreened 85 college students (40 women and 45 men) with the ROD scale and a widely used self-report measure of dependency, the Interpersonal Dependency Inventory (IDI; Hirschfeld et al., 1977). Results show that informing participants who scored low on the IDI that they were in fact highly dependent led to significant increases in ROD scores; I did not obtain parallel ROD increases for participants who scored high on the IDI or for participants who received low-dependent feedback. In Study 2, I examined a separate sample of 80 prescreened college students (40 women and 40 men) and showed that providing low self-report participants an opportunity to attribute dependency to a fictional target person prior to Rorschach responding attenuated the impact of high-dependent feedback on ROD scores. These results suggest that projection played a role in at least one domain of Rorschach responding. I discuss theoretical, clinical, and empirical implications of these results.

Analyses of Projected Changes in Climate for Sub-Saharan Africa Using a Variable-Resolution Atmospheric Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adegoke, J.; Engelbrecht, F.; Vezhapparambu, S.

2012-12-01

The conformal-cubic atmospheric model (CCAM) is employed in this study as a flexible downscaling tool at the climate-change time scale. In the downscaling procedure, the sea-ice and bias-corrected SSTs of 6 CGCMs (CSIRO Mk 3.5, GFDL2.1, GFDL2.0, HadCM2, ECHAM5 and Miroc-Medres) from AR4 of the IPCC were first used as lower-boundary forcing in CCAM simulations performed at a quasi-uniform resolution (about 200 km in the horizontal), which were subsequently downscaled to a resolution of about 60 km over southern and tropical Africa. All the simulations were for the A2 scenario of the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), and for the period 1961-2100. The SST biases were derived by comparing the simulated and observed present-day climatol¬ogy of SSTs for 1979-1999 for each month of the year; the same monthly bias corrections were applied for the duration of the simulations. CCAM ensemble projected change in annual average temperature and Rainfall for 2071-2100 vs 1961-1990 for tropical Africa will be presented and discussed. In summary, a robust signal of drastic increases in surface temperature (more than 3 degrees C for the period 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990) is projected across the domain. Temperature increases as large as 5 degrees C are projected over the subtropical regions in the north of the domain. Increase in rainfall over tropical Africa (for the period 2071-2100 relative to 1961-1990) is projected across the domain. This is consistent with an increase in moisture in a generally warmer atmosphere. There is a robust signal of drying along the West African coast - however, the CMIP3 CGCM projections indicate a wide range of possible rainfall futures over this region The projections of East Africa becoming wetter is robust across the CCAM ensemble, consistent with the CGCM projections of CMIP3 and AR4.

Impacts of climate change on river discharge in the northern Tien Shan: Results from the long-term observations and modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shahgedanova, Maria; Afzal, Muhammad; Usmanova, Zamira; Kapitsa, Vasilii; Mayr, Elisabeth; Hagg, Wilfried; Severskiy, Igor; Zhumabayev, Dauren

2017-04-01

The study presents results of investigation of the observed and projected changes in discharge of seven snow- and glacier-nourished rivers of the northern Tien Shan (south-eastern Kazakhstan). The observed trends were assessed using the long-term (40-60 years) homogeneous daily records of discharge from the gauging stations located in the mountains and unaffected by human activities including water abstraction. Positive trends in discharge were registered at most sites between the 1950s and 2010s with the strongest increase in summer and autumn particularly in 2000-2010s in line with the positive temperature trends. The observed increase was most prominent in the catchments with a higher proportion of glacierized area. At the Ulken Almatinka and Kishi Almatinka rivers, where 16% and 12% of the catchment areas are glacierized, positive trends in summer and autumn discharge exceeded 1% per year. The strongest increase was observed in September indicating that melting period extends in the early autumn. In September-November, the number of days with extreme discharge values, defined as daily values exceeding 95th percentile (calculated for each meteorological season), increased at all rivers. Future changes in discharge were modelled using HBV-ETH hydrological model and four climate change scenarios derived using regional climate model PRECIS with 25 km spatial resolution driven by HadGEM GCM for RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios and HadCM3Q0 and ECHAM5 GCM for A1B scenario. A range of glacier change scenarios was considered. All climate experiments project increase in temperature with the strongest warming projected by the HadGEM-driven simulation for RCP 8.5 scenario and HadCM3Q0-driven simulation for A1B scenario. The projected changes in precipitation varied between models and seasons, however, most experiments did not show significant trends in precipitation within the studied catchments. The exception is a simulation driven by HadGEM GCM for 8.5 RCP scenario which projects summer drying. All simulations project that in the 2020s, discharge will remain close to its baseline (1990-2005) values suggesting that peak flow has been reached in the northern Tien Shan. Significant decrease in discharge is projected for the post 2030s period for June-September. The strongest changes are expected in July and August when discharge values are projected to decrease by 25-38% in 2030-2060 and decline further to up 50% of the baseline values in 2060-2099.

Projected health impacts of heat events in Washington State associated with climate change.

PubMed

Isaksen, Tania Busch; Yost, Michael; Hom, Elizabeth; Fenske, Richard

2014-01-01

Climate change is predicted to increase the frequency and duration of extreme-heat events and associated health outcomes. This study used data from the historical heat-health outcome relationship, and a unique prediction model, to estimate mortality for 2025 and 2045. For each one degree change in humidex above threshold, we find a corresponding 1.83% increase in mortality for all ages, all non-traumatic causes of death in King County, Washington. Mortality is projected to increase significantly in 2025 and 2045 for the 85 and older age group (2.3-8.0 and 4.0-22.3 times higher than baseline, respectively).

California Schools Develop Joint Faculty Journalism Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patt, Bruce E.

1995-01-01

Describes the Joint Faculty Journalism project, undertaken in 1994-95 by California's community colleges and universities to develop methods for increasing alliances with journalism practitioners. Discusses project objectives and resulting recommendations related to increasing student recruitment and success. Reviews positive project outcomes and…

Development of a Quality Improvement Curriculum in Physician Assistant Studies.

PubMed

Kindratt, Tiffany B; Orcutt, Venetia L

2017-06-01

The purpose of this project was to develop and evaluate a curriculum for physician assistant (PA) students addressing knowledge, skills, and attitudes (KSA) toward quality improvement (QI). Students (N = 77) completed a pretest rating their KSA. A curriculum was developed to improve KSA among didactic and clinical students. Two department-wide QI projects were developed for student participation. Students completed a posttest after completing curriculum components and changes in KSA had been measured. Postcurriculum implementation, QI knowledge, and skills increased significantly in most areas. Large improvements were seen in knowledge of Plan, Do, Study, Act models and life cycles of QI projects (p < .0001). Seven students (20%) participated in department-wide projects. Our curriculum model (1) was effective at improving students' QI knowledge and skills; (2) allowed students to participate in community-based QI projects; and (3) can be used by other PA programs looking to enhance their QI curriculum.

Regional Climate Change Impact on Agricultural Land Use in West Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ahmed, K. F.; Wang, G.; You, L.

2014-12-01

Agriculture is a key element of the human-induced land use land cover change (LULCC) that is influenced by climate and can potentially influence regional climate. Temperature and precipitation directly impact the crop yield (by controlling photosynthesis, respiration and other physiological processes) that then affects agricultural land use pattern. In feedback, the resulting changes in land use and land cover play an important role to determine the direction and magnitude of global, regional and local climate change by altering Earth's radiative equilibrium. The assessment of future agricultural land use is, therefore, of great importance in climate change study. In this study, we develop a prototype land use projection model and, using this model, project the changes to land use pattern and future land cover map accounting for climate-induced yield changes for major crops in West Africa. Among the inputs to the land use projection model are crop yield changes simulated by the crop model DSSAT, driven with the climate forcing data from the regional climate model RegCM4.3.4-CLM4.5, which features a projected decrease of future mean crop yield and increase of inter-annual variability. Another input to the land use projection model is the projected changes of food demand in the future. In a so-called "dumb-farmer scenario" without any adaptation, the combined effect of decrease in crop yield and increase in food demand will lead to a significant increase in agricultural land use in future years accompanied by a decrease in forest and grass area. Human adaptation through land use optimization in an effort to minimize agricultural expansion is found to have little impact on the overall areas of agricultural land use. While the choice of the General Circulation Model (GCM) to derive initial and boundary conditions for the regional climate model can be a source of uncertainty in projecting the future LULCC, results from sensitivity experiments indicate that the changes in land use pattern are robust.

Interventions to reduce injuries among older workers in agriculture: A review of evaluated intervention projects.

PubMed

Nilsson, Kerstin

2016-10-17

The number of older workers is increasing throughout the industrialised world and older workers are known to be more frequent in the injury-prone agricultural sector. This paper sought to extend knowledge by reviewing evaluated intervention studies intended to decrease risks and work injuries among older workers in agriculture. A systematic literature review regarding: evaluated intervention projects on injury prevention, including participants aged 55 years and older, and working in agriculture. This review identified evaluated intervention projects regarding: i) intervention in injury prevention; ii) interventions to increase knowledge in health and safety tasks and practice; and iii) interventions to increase the use of safety equipment in work. The evaluations reviewed showed that the interventions were less successful in involving older agricultural workers than their younger counterparts. The evaluations also showed that the outcome of interventions was generally less positive or brought about no significant difference in risk awareness and behaviour change among older agricultural workers. Many articles and statistics describe injuries in agriculture. Especially older farm workers are one of the groups with most work injuries and deaths. Despite this, an important finding in this review was shortage of implemented and evaluated intervention studies orientated toward reduce injuries among older workers in agriculture. This review also found that no intervention project in the evaluations studied had a clear positive effect. Many intervention studies have problems with or lack of evaluation in the study design. Based on the results in this review, important future research tasks are to improve the design of interventions, devise implementation methods and formulate appropriate evaluation methods to measure the outcome of the interventions. Intervention programmes also need to involve older workers specific physical and cognitive age aspects in the design to increases their willingness to participate and to be successful to reduce injuries.

Performance Evaluation and Analysis of Rural Drinking Water Safety Project——A Case Study in Jiangsu, China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Du, Xiaorong

2017-04-01

Water is the basic condition for human survival and development. As China is the most populous country, rural drinking water safety problems are most conspicuous. Therefore, the Chinese government keeps increasing investment and has built a large number of rural drinking water safety projects. Scientific evaluation of project performance is of great significance to promote the sustainable operation of the project and the sustainable development of rural economy. Previous studies mainly focus on the economic benefits of the project, while ignoring the fact that the rural drinking water safety project is quasi-public goods, which has economic, social and ecological benefits. This paper establishes a comprehensive evaluation model for rural drinking water safety performance, which adapts the rules of "5E" (economy, efficiency, effectiveness, equity and environment) as the value orientation, and selects a rural drinking water safety project as object in case study at K District, which is in the north of Jiangsu Province, China. The results shows: 1) the comprehensive performance of K project is in good condition; 2) The performance of every part shows that the scores of criteria "efficiency", "environment" and "effect" are higher than the mean performance, while the "economy" is slightly lower than the mean and the "equity" is the lowest. 3) The performance of indicator layer shows that: the planned completion rate of project, the reduction rate of project cost and the penetration rate of water-use population are significantly lower than other indicators. Based on the achievements of previous studies and the characteristics of rural drinking water safety project, this study integrates the evaluation dimensions of equity and environment, which can contribute to a more comprehensive and systematic assessment of project performance and provide empirical data for performance evaluation and management of rural drinking water safety project. Key Words: Rural drinking water safety project; Performance evaluation; 5E rules; Comprehensive evaluation model

Stroke trends in an aging population. The Technology Assessment Methods Project Team.

PubMed

Niessen, L W; Barendregt, J J; Bonneux, L; Koudstaal, P J

1993-07-01

Trends in stroke incidence and survival determine changes in stroke morbidity and mortality. This study examines the extent of the incidence decline and survival improvement in the Netherlands from 1979 to 1989. In addition, it projects future changes in stroke morbidity during the period 1985 to 2005, when the country's population will be aging. A state-event transition model is used, which combines Dutch population projections and existing data on stroke epidemiology. Based on the clinical course of stroke, the model describes historical national age- and sex-specific hospital admission and mortality rates for stroke. It extrapolates observed trends and projects future changes in stroke morbidity rates. There is evidence of a continuing incidence decline. The most plausible rate of change is an annual decline of -1.9% (range, -1.7% to -2.1%) for men and -2.4% (range, -2.3% to -2.8%) for women. Projecting a constant mortality decline, the model shows a 35% decrease of the stroke incidence rate for a period of 20 years. Prevalence rates for major stroke will decline among the younger age groups but increase among the oldest because of increased survival in the latter. In absolute numbers this results in an 18% decrease of acute stroke episodes and an 11% increase of major stroke cases. The increase in survival cannot fully explain the observed mortality decline and, therefore, a concomitant incidence decline has to be assumed. Aging of the population partially outweighs the effect of an incidence decline on the total burden of stroke. Increase in cardiovascular survival leads to a further increase in major stroke prevalence among the oldest age groups.

Increasing influence of heat stress on French maize yields from the 1960s to the 2030s

PubMed Central

Hawkins, Ed; Fricker, Thomas E; Challinor, Andrew J; Ferro, Christopher A T; Kit Ho, Chun; Osborne, Tom M

2013-01-01

Improved crop yield forecasts could enable more effective adaptation to climate variability and change. Here, we explore how to combine historical observations of crop yields and weather with climate model simulations to produce crop yield projections for decision relevant timescales. Firstly, the effects on historical crop yields of improved technology, precipitation and daily maximum temperatures are modelled empirically, accounting for a nonlinear technology trend and interactions between temperature and precipitation, and applied specifically for a case study of maize in France. The relative importance of precipitation variability for maize yields in France has decreased significantly since the 1960s, likely due to increased irrigation. In addition, heat stress is found to be as important for yield as precipitation since around 2000. A significant reduction in maize yield is found for each day with a maximum temperature above 32 °C, in broad agreement with previous estimates. The recent increase in such hot days has likely contributed to the observed yield stagnation. Furthermore, a general method for producing near-term crop yield projections, based on climate model simulations, is developed and utilized. We use projections of future daily maximum temperatures to assess the likely change in yields due to variations in climate. Importantly, we calibrate the climate model projections using observed data to ensure both reliable temperature mean and daily variability characteristics, and demonstrate that these methods work using retrospective predictions. We conclude that, to offset the projected increased daily maximum temperatures over France, improved technology will need to increase base level yields by 12% to be confident about maintaining current levels of yield for the period 2016–2035; the current rate of yield technology increase is not sufficient to meet this target. PMID:23504849

Campus Community Involvement in an Experimental Food Research Project Increases Students' Motivation and Improves Perceived Learning Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Goto, K.; Bianco-Simeral, S.

2009-01-01

Although the effects of pedagogical strategies using collaborative learning on students' perceived learning outcomes have been studied, little has been examined about possible benefits and challenges in collaborating with the campus community in a food science research project conducted by nutrition majors. We examined the effects of involving…

Project Reach: Annual Report--Year 1. June 1, 1969-June 14, 1970.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McClelland, Samuel D.

Project Reach, a Federally funded two-year program at the University of Notre Dame, studied three methods of increasing the scope and effectiveness of a local adult basic education (ABE) program in St. Joseph County, Indiana. The methods were: (1) a paraprofessional training program for six former ABE students in still photography, color film…

Analyzing Bilingual Teaching and Learning in Madrid, Spain: A Fulbright Scholar Collaborative Research Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gerena, Linda; Ramírez-Verdugo, M. Dolores

2014-01-01

This study was carried out as an international cooperative research project supported by a Fulbright Scholar award to investigate attitudes and perceptions towards bilingual education, and to extract key findings on effective pedagogy in bilingual schools in the Region of Madrid, where expansion of bilingual programs has been rapidly increasing.…

"Does Hope Change? Testing a Project-Based Health Intervention among Urban Students of Color"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zusevics, Kaija L.; Johnson, Sheri

2014-01-01

Hope is positively correlated with educational attainment and health. Interventions based on project-based learning (PBL) may increase youth hope. This study examined how a PBL intervention affected hope among urban students of color. Students in health classes were invited to participate. A PBL health class was implemented in four classrooms. The…

Get That Job! A Project on the German Job Application Process

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Magedera-Hofhansl, Hanna

2016-01-01

With decreasing numbers of students studying German at Higher Education Institutions in the United Kingdom, there is an increasing demand for graduate Germanists. This project, designed for C1/C2 level students according to the Common European Framework of Reference for languages, prepares finalist students for a job market in which UK and German…

Prevailing Wage Rates: The Effects on School Construction Costs, Levels of Taxation, and State Reimbursements.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Keller, Edward C.; Hartman, William T.

2001-01-01

Results of study of impact of Pennsylvania Prevailing Wage Act on 25 school-construction project costs from 1992-97 and effect thereof on local school districts' taxes. All districts had higher construction costs and property taxes. Projects increased construction costs for the Commonwealth and recommends revisions in prevailing wage-rate law.…

Big Data Analytics Methodology in the Financial Industry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lawler, James; Joseph, Anthony

2017-01-01

Firms in industry continue to be attracted by the benefits of Big Data Analytics. The benefits of Big Data Analytics projects may not be as evident as frequently indicated in the literature. The authors of the study evaluate factors in a customized methodology that may increase the benefits of Big Data Analytics projects. Evaluating firms in the…

The Self-Esteem and Goals of Indigent Children. Progress Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Golin, Sanford

The general goal of this project is to develop courses of study which will be effective in increasing the self esteem, goals, and related behavior of black children who attend black schools. This project addresses itself to three interrelated programs which will be carried out by black people from the black community. The programs are: (1)…

Lifestyle Management Program: Promoting Cardiovascular Health: in Community College Campuses.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Castro, Felipe G.; Jichaku, Patrick

The Lifestyle Management Project is a health promotion project and research study conducted in the spring of 1984 at five Los Angeles junior college campuses. Its goal was to increase knowledge of cardiovascular disease (CHD) risk factors among 400 to 2000 junior college students in each campus. This was done via five risk factor activities: blood…

Increasing EFL Learners' Oral Production at a Public School through Project-Based Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vaca Torres, Ady Marcela; Gómez Rodríguez, Luis Fernando

2017-01-01

This research study examined how a group of ninth graders enhanced the speaking skill in an English as a foreign language classroom through project-based learning. Data about the experience were collected through field notes, transcripts of learners' oral performance, and one interview. Grounded theory was implemented for data analysis, out of…

The Impact of Project-Based Learning on Fourth-Grade Students' Understanding in Reading

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Williams, Dana L.

2017-01-01

The purpose of this quantitative, non-experimental, descriptive study was to determine if participation in project-based learning developed the understanding students need to transfer their knowledge and skills to achieve higher composite and reading scores, as well as demonstrate the ability to read increasingly complex texts on the ACT Aspire as…

Health-Related Fitness Knowledge Development through Project-Based Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hastle, Peter A.; Chen, Senlin; Guarino, Anthony J.

2017-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to examine the process and outcome of an intervention using the project-based learning (PBL) model to increase students' health-related fitness (HRF) knowledge. Method: The participants were 185 fifth-grade students from three schools in Alabama (PBL group: n = 109; control group: n = 76). HRF knowledge was…

Enabling Customization through Web Development: An Iterative Study of the Dell Computer Corporation Website

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Liu, Chang; Mackie, Brian G.

2008-01-01

Throughout the last decade, companies have increased their investment in electronic commerce (EC) by developing and implementing Web-based applications on the Internet. This paper describes a class project to develop a customized computer website which is similar to Dell Computer Corporation's (Dell) website. The objective of this project is to…

Changing Demands from Riparian Evapotranspiration and Free-Water Evaporation in the Lower Colorado River Basin Under Different Climate Scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bunk, D. A.; Piechota, T. C.

2012-12-01

Observed and projected trends in riparian evapotranspiration (ET) and free-water evaporation are examined to improve water demand forecasting for use in modeling of lower Colorado River system reservoir operations. While most previous research has focused on the impacts of climate change and climate variability on water supply, the impacts on water demand under changing climate conditions have not been adequately addressed (NRC, 2007 and Reclamation, 2009). Increases in temperatures and changes in precipitation and wind patterns are expected to increase evaporative demands (Bates and others, 2008), potentially increasing free-water evaporation and ET from riparian vegetation; increasing infiltration rates; altering cropping patterns; and changing the temporal and spatial distribution of water deliveries. This study uses observations and projections under changing climate scenarios of hydroclimatic variables, such as temperature, wind, and precipitation, to analyze their impacts on riparian ET and free-water evaporation in the lower Colorado River mainstream downstream of Lake Mead and Hoover Dam. The projected changes in evaporative demands were assessed to determine their impacts on water supply and reservoir operations in the Colorado River basin under changing climate conditions. Based on analysis of observed and projected hydroclimatic data from the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model, mean annual daily temperature in the lower Colorado River mainstream reach has increased by 0.8° Celsius (C) from the 30-year period ending in 1980 to period ending in 2010 and is projected to increase by an additional 1.7° C by 30-year period ending in 2060. Analysis of riparian ET derived from the ASCE Penman-Monteith method (Allen et al., 2005, from Monteith, 1965 and 1981) and Westenburg et al. (2006) and free-water evaporation derived from the Penman combination model in Dingman (2008) indicates that combined evaporative demand in the lower Colorado River mainstream increased by 14,800 acre-feet, or 1.8 percent, during the 30-year period ending in 2010, and may increase by an additional 16,600 acre-feet, or 2.0 percent, during the 30-year period ending in 2060, when compared to the period from 1951 to 1980. With this projected increase in evaporative demands, the combined storage of Lake Powell and Lake Mead are projected to decrease by a cumulative volume of 75,400 acre-feet, or 0.15 percent of total conservation capacity, based on 10-year running averages ending in years 2020 to 2060. In addition, average annual shortage volumes in the lower Colorado River basin are projected to increase by 40,000 acre-feet, or 0.30 percent, from 2013 to 2060.

Practice quality improvement during residency: where do we stand and where can we improve?

PubMed

Choudhery, Sadia; Richter, Michael; Anene, Alvin; Xi, Yin; Browning, Travis; Chason, David; Morriss, Michael Craig

2014-07-01

Completing a systems-based practice project, equivalent to a practice quality improvement project (PQI), is a residency requirement by the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education and an American Board of Radiology milestone. The aim of this study was to assess the residents' perspectives on quality improvement projects in radiology. Survey data were collected from 154 trainee members of the Association of University Radiologists to evaluate the residents' views on PQI. Most residents were aware of the requirement of completing a PQI project and had faculty mentors for their projects. Residents who thought it was difficult to find a mentor were more likely to start their project later in residency (P < .0001). Publication rates were low overall, and lack of time was considered the greatest obstacle. Having dedicated time for a PQI project was associated with increased likelihood of publishing or presenting the data (P = .0091). Residents who rated the five surveyed PQI steps (coming up with an idea, finding a mentor, designing a project, finding resources, and finding time) as difficult steps were more likely to not have initiated a PQI project (P < .0001 for the first four and P = .0046 for time). We present five practical areas of improvement to make PQI a valuable learning experience: 1) Increasing awareness of PQI and providing ideas for projects, 2) encouraging faculty mentorship and publication, 3) educating residents about project design and implementation, 4) providing resources such as books and funds, and 5) allowing dedicated time. Copyright © 2014 AUR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk assessment of underpass infrastructure project based on IS0 31000 and ISO 21500 using fishbone diagram and RFMEA (project risk failure mode and effects analysis) method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Purwanggono, Bambang; Margarette, Anastasia

2017-12-01

Completion time of highway construction is very meaningful for smooth transportation, moreover expected number of ownership motor vehicle will increase each year. Therefore, this study was conducted with to analyze the constraints that contained in an infrastructure development project. This research was conducted on Jatingaleh Underpass Project, Semarang. This research was carried out while the project is running, on the implementation, this project is experiencing delays. This research is done to find out what are the constraints that occur in execution of a road infrastructure project, in particular that causes delays. The method that used to find the root cause is fishbone diagram to obtain a possible means of mitigation. Coupled with the RFMEA method used to determine the critical risks that must be addressed immediately on road infrastructure project. The result of data tabulation in this study indicates that the most possible mitigation tool to make a Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) recommendations to disrupt utilities that interfere project implementation. Process of risk assessment has been carried out systematically based on ISO 31000:2009 on risk management and for determination of delayed variables, the requirements of process groups according to ISO 21500:2013 on project management were used.

Projects without a purpose: Why a top down strategy to resilience matters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kingery, Kristine M.; Fowler, Kimberly M.; Harrove

Energy resilience is a key focus of the current administration and Department of Defense (DoD) leaders, and is in the title of every energy conference session. Most case studies and success stories focus on resilience projects hardening systems or microgriding critical infrastructure. Some case studies focus on unique financing approaches to bring private sector innovation and increased investment to military installations. Many times, what initially look like innovative resilience projects, end as isolated systems or stranded infrastructure. This article will explore how the DoD can make greater strides advancing resilience objectives and ultimately developing projects that support installation mission readinessmore » by first focusing on top down strategies. The Army established energy and water security/resilience requirements, developed a comprehensive measurement framework, is evolving integrated planning approaches in collaboration with local communities, and is supporting project development activities across third-party and appropriated programs. The Army’s multi-year strategic energy and water security planning activities can provide helpful guidance to both the lifecycle of programs or individual projects, and ensure resilience projects both have and achieve a purpose.« less

[Analysis of projects of infectious disease epidemiology sponsored by National Natural Science Foundation of China].

PubMed

Jian-Ming, Wang; Yan-Kai, Xia; Hui-Juan, Zhu; Feng, Chen; Hong-Bing, Shen

2016-05-10

To analyze the projects on the infectious disease epidemiology sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC), explore the hotspot and development trend, and offer a reference for researchers in this field. Based on the NSFC database, the projects on the infectious disease epidemiology (H2609) sponsored from 1987 to 2014 were analyzed. The changes of fund numbers, amounts and research fields were described. During the study period, NSFC sponsored 373 projects, including 228 general projects (61.1%), 78 youth projects (20.9%) and 67 other projects (18.0%). The average amount of the grant was 358.2 thousand Yuan (20 thousand-8 million). The main sponsored research fields were mechanisms of pathogen and immunity (36.2%) and population-based epidemiological studies (33.0%). The top three diseases were hepatitis, HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis. The amount of funding on researches of infectious disease epidemiology has increased continuously, which has played an important role in training scientific talents in the field of prevention and control of infectious diseases.

Do project management and network governance contribute to inter-organisational collaboration in primary care? A mixed methods study.

PubMed

Schepman, Sanneke; Valentijn, Pim; Bruijnzeels, Marc; Maaijen, Marlies; de Bakker, Dinny; Batenburg, Ronald; de Bont, Antoinette

2018-06-07

The need for organisational development in primary care has increased as it is accepted as a means of curbing rising costs and responding to demographic transitions. It is only within such inter-organisational networks that small-scale practices can offer treatment to complex patients and continuity of care. The aim of this paper is to explore, through the experience of professionals and patients, whether, and how, project management and network governance can improve the outcomes of projects which promote inter-organisational collaboration in primary care. This paper describes a study of projects aimed at improving inter-organisational collaboration in Dutch primary care. The projects' success in project management and network governance was monitored by interviewing project leaders and board members on the one hand, and improvement in the collaboration by surveying professionals and patients on the other. Both qualitative and quantitative methods were applied to assess the projects. These were analysed, finally, using multi-level models in order to account for the variation in the projects, professionals and patients. Successful network governance was associated positively with the professionals' satisfaction with the collaboration; but not with improvements in the quality of care as experienced by patients. Neither patients nor professionals perceived successful project management as associated with the outcomes of the collaboration projects. This study shows that network governance in particular makes a difference to the outcomes of inter-organisational collaboration in primary care. However, project management is not a predictor for successful inter-organisational collaboration in primary care.

Project BudBurst: Citizen Science for All Seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, S.; Brewer, C.; Havens, K.; Meymaris, K.

2007-12-01

Project BudBurst is a national citizen science initiative designed to engage the public in observations of phenological (plant life cycle) events that raise awareness of climate change, and create a cadre of informed citizen scientists. Citizen science programs such as Project BudBurst provide the opportunity for students and interested laypersons to actively participate in scientific research. Such programs are important not only from an educational perspective, but because they also enable scientists to broaden the geographic and temporal scale of their observations. Project BudBurst launched a pilot program in the Spring of 2007. The goals of Project BudBurst were to 1) increase awareness of phenology as an area of scientific study; 2) Increase awareness of the impacts of changing climates on plants; and 3) increase science literacy by engaging participants in the scientific process. From April through mid-June 2007, this on-line educational and data-entry program, engaged participants of all ages and walks of life in recording the timing of the leafing and flowering of ~60 easily identifiable, broadly distributed wild and cultivated species found across the continent. We will report on the results of the pilot project and discuss plans to expand Project BudBurst as it becomes a year round event beginning in 2008. A broad consortium of collaborators, representing the Chicago Botanic Garden, Plant Conservation Alliance, ESRI, the USA-National Phenology Network, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, University of Arizona, University of Montana, University of California-Santa Barbara, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and the University of Wisconsin-Madison, came together to design and implement Project BudBurst with seed funding from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management, the National Phenology Network (through a RCN grant from the NSF), and the Plant Conservation Alliance.

Uncertainties in Projecting Future Changes in Atmospheric Rivers and Their Impacts on Heavy Precipitation over Europe

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gao, Yang; Lu, Jian; Leung, L. Ruby

This study investigates the North Atlantic atmospheric rivers (ARs) making landfall over western Europe in the present and future climate from the multi-model ensemble of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Overall, CMIP5 captures the seasonal and spatial variations of historical landfalling AR days, with the large inter-model variability strongly correlated with the inter-model spread of historical jet position. Under RCP 8.5, AR frequency is projected to increase a few times by the end of this century. While thermodynamics plays a dominate role in the future increase of ARs, wind changes associated with the midlatitude jet shifts alsomore » significantly contribute to AR changes, resulting in dipole change patterns in all seasons. In the North Atlantic, the model projected jet shifts are strongly correlated with the simulated historical jet position. As models exhibit predominantly equatorward biases in the historical jet position, the large poleward jet shifts reduce AR days south of the historical mean jet position through the dynamical connections between the jet positions and AR days. Using the observed historical jet position as an emergent constraint, dynamical effects further increase AR days in the future above the large increases due to thermodynamical effects. In the future, both total and extreme precipitation induced by AR contribute more to the seasonal mean and extreme precipitation compared to present primarily because of the increase in AR frequency. While AR precipitation intensity generally increases more relative to the increase in integrated vapor transport, AR extreme precipitation intensity increases much less.« less

Project BudBurst: Continental-scale citizen science for all seasons

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henderson, S.; Newman, S. J.; Ward, D.; Havens-Young, K.; Alaback, P.; Meymaris, K.

2011-12-01

Project BudBurst's (budburst.org) recent move to the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) has benefitted both programs. NEON has been able to use Project BudBurst as a testbed to learn best practices, network with experts in the field, and prototype potential tools for engaging people in continental-scale ecology as NEON develops its citizen science program. Participation in Project BudBurst has grown significantly since the move to NEON. Project BudBurst is a national citizen science initiative designed to engage the public in observations of phenological (plant life cycle) events that raise awareness of climate change, and create a cadre of informed citizen scientists. Citizen science programs such as Project BudBurst provide the opportunity for students and interested laypersons to actively participate in scientific research. Such programs are important not only from an educational perspective, but because they also enable scientists to broaden the geographic and temporal scale of their observations. The goals of Project BudBurst are to 1) increase awareness of phenology as an area of scientific study; 2) Increase awareness of the impacts of changing climates on plants at a continental-scale; and 3) increase science literacy by engaging participants in the scientific process. From its 2008 launch in February, this on-line educational and data-entry program, engaged participants of all ages and walks of life in recording the timing of the leafing and flowering of wild and cultivated species found across the continent. Thus far, thousands of participants from all 50 states have submitted data. This presentation will provide an overview of Project BudBurst and will report on the results of the 2010 field campaign and discuss plans to expand Project BudBurst in 2012 including the use of mobile phones applications for data collection and reporting from the field. Project BudBurst is co-managed by the National Ecological Observatory Network and the Chicago Botanic Garden.

Public health research in Denmark in the years 1995--2005.

PubMed

Gulis, G; Eriksen, M L; Aro, A R

2010-02-01

The objective of this study was to find out the number of publications (in Danish) and research projects (including grey literature) either carried out or ongoing within the field of public health in Denmark, using the same criteria as the SPHERE project, but looking at Danish research databases. The Danish research database served as the main resource for the study supported by national research reports. There is an increasing trend in the number of public health research projects and publications. Compared with public health research projects published in English there are differences in some categories. Overall, public health research in Denmark seems to contribute around 4.8%-6.5% of the total amount of health research. Public health research has a relatively low share of overall health research in Denmark.

Multi-model ensemble projections of future extreme heat stress on rice across southern China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

He, Liang; Cleverly, James; Wang, Bin; Jin, Ning; Mi, Chunrong; Liu, De Li; Yu, Qiang

2017-08-01

Extreme heat events have become more frequent and intense with climate warming, and these heatwaves are a threat to rice production in southern China. Projected changes in heat stress in rice provide an assessment of the potential impact on crop production and can direct measures for adaptation to climate change. In this study, we calculated heat stress indices using statistical scaling techniques, which can efficiently downscale output from general circulation models (GCMs). Data across the rice belt in southern China were obtained from 28 GCMs in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) with two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 for current emissions and RCP8.5 for increasing emissions). Multi-model ensemble projections over the historical period (1960-2010) reproduced the trend of observations in heat stress indices (root-mean-square error RMSE = 6.5 days) better than multi-model arithmetic mean (RMSE 8.9 days) and any individual GCM (RMSE 11.4 days). The frequency of heat stress events was projected to increase by 2061-2100 in both scenarios (up to 185 and 319% for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively), especially in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. This increasing risk of exposure to heat stress above 30 °C during flowering and grain filling is predicted to impact rice production. The results of our study suggest the importance of specific adaption or mitigation strategies, such as selection of heat-tolerant cultivars and adjustment of planting date in a warmer future world.

Changes of Climate Extremes in Urmia Lake Basin: Observations and Multimodel Ensemble Projections

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ashraf, B.; AghaKouchak, A.

2017-12-01

This study presents an analysis of the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Urmia Lake Basin, in Iran in 21th century. The latest observations in the past three decades and multimodel ensemble projections from eleven General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios are employed for analysis in this study. The twenty-seven indicative temperature and precipitation indices recommended by the joint World Meteorological Organization CCL/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) were used for assessing changes in extremes. Results indicate that most warm (cold) extreme temperature indices have shown significantly positive (negative) trends in the Urmia Lake Basin in past three decades, while only slight changes in precipitation extremes can be observed. Ensemble projection from Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) of Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) suggests that the increasing consecutive dry days (CDD), together with the decreasing frost day (FD) and increasing warm nights frequency (TN90) contribute to more frequent/severe droughts in Urmia Lake Basin. Meanwhile, the results show slight increase of annual count of days with precipitation of more than 10 mm (R10), maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5D), simple daily intensity index (SDII), and annual total precipitation with precipitation >95th percentile (R95) in projections. Our finding provides information on how extremes might change in the future from a wide range of scenarios that can potentially be sued for water resource and eco-environmental planning and adaptation strategies.

Southern Appalachian Timber Study

Treesearch

Joseph E. de Steiguer; L.W. Hayden; D.L. Holley; W.G. Luppold; W.G. Martin; D.H. Newman; R.M. Sheffield

1989-01-01

This study investigated recent hardwood stumpage market trends in Southern Appalachia and projected National Forest stumpageprices to the year 2000. Over the past 10 years, hardwood timber harvest volumes from private lands have increased 38 percent with much of this increase coming in the last 2 to 4 years. Private hardwood stumpage prices have decreased across much...

Soil response to long-term projections of extreme temperature and precipitation in the southern La Plata Basin

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pántano, Vanesa C.; Penalba, Olga C.

2017-12-01

Projected changes were estimated considering the main variables which take part in soil-atmosphere interaction. The analysis was focused on the potential impact of these changes on soil hydric condition under extreme precipitation and evapotranspiration, using the combination of Global Climate Models (GCMs) and observational data. The region of study is the southern La Plata Basin that covers part of Argentine territory, where rainfed agriculture production is one of the most important economic activities. Monthly precipitation and maximum and minimum temperatures were used from high quality-controlled observed data from 46 meteorological stations and the ensemble of seven CMIP5 GCMs in two periods: 1970-2005 and 2065-2100. Projected changes in monthly effective temperature and precipitation were analysed. These changes were combined with observed series for each probabilistic interval. The result was used as input variables for the water balance model in order to obtain consequent soil hydric condition (deficit or excess). Effective temperature and precipitation are expected to increase according to the projections of GCMs, with few exceptions. The analysis revealed increase (decrease) in the prevalence of evapotranspiration over precipitation, during spring (winter). Projections for autumn months show precipitation higher than potential evapotranspiration more frequently. Under dry extremes, the analysis revealed higher projected deficit conditions, impacting on crop development. On the other hand, under wet extremes, excess would reach higher values only in particular months. During December, projected increase in temperatures reduces the impact of extreme high precipitation but favours deficit conditions, affecting flower-fructification stage of summer crops.

Improving motivation and engagement in core engineering courses with student teams

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Trenshaw, Kathryn Faye

Team-based projects are common in capstone engineering design courses and increasingly common in first-year engineering programs. Despite high enrollments and budget cutbacks affecting many programs, second- and third-year students can also benefit from team-based project experiences, which motivate them to succeed in engineering and prepare them for a globally competitive workforce. My dissertation research demonstrates that team design projects can be incorporated into the curricula of engineering departments, and these projects result in positive affective outcomes for students. Using ABET outcomes and Self Determination Theory (SDT) as the background for my studies, I investigated students' confidence, motivation, and sense of community after experiencing team design projects in two different engineering departments at a large public institution. In the first study, I used a sequential mixed methods approach with a primary quantitative phase followed by an explanatory qualitative phase to evaluate a chemical engineering program that integrated team design projects throughout the curriculum. The evaluation methods included a survey based on desired ABET outcomes for students and focus groups to expand on the quantitative results. Students reported increased confidence in their design, teamwork, and communication skills after completing the projects. In my second and third studies, I used qualitative interviews based on SDT to explore student motivation in an electrical and computer engineering course redesigned to support students' intrinsic motivation to learn. SDT states that intrinsic motivation to learn is supported by increasing students' sense of autonomy, competence, and relatedness in regard to their learning. Using both narrative inquiry and phenomenological methodologies, I analyzed data from interviews of students for mentions of autonomy, competence, and relatedness as well as course events that were critical in changing students' motivation. Analysis revealed that individual choice, constructive failures, and a strong sense of community in the classroom were critical to moving students toward intrinsic motivation. Further, community building through team experiences characterized the essence of the student experience in the course. My research highlights a need for better quantitative measures of students' affective outcomes, specifically motivation, in the context of a single course. Based on the results of my studies, SDT should be reevaluated in terms of possible interdependencies between autonomy, competence, and relatedness, and how the social context of large engineering courses may create a deeper need for supporting relatedness.

Vegetation changes in recent large-scale ecological restoration projects and subsequent impact on water resources in China's Loess Plateau.

PubMed

Li, Shuai; Liang, Wei; Fu, Bojie; Lü, Yihe; Fu, Shuyi; Wang, Shuai; Su, Huimin

2016-11-01

Recently, relationship between vegetation activity and temperature variability has received much attention in China. However, vegetation-induced changes in water resources through changing land surface energy balance (e.g. albedo), has not been well documented. This study investigates the underlying causes of vegetation change and subsequent impacts on runoff for the Northern Shaanxi Loess Plateau. Results show that satellite-derived vegetation index has experienced a significantly increasing trend during the past three decades, especially during 2000-2012. Large-scale ecological restorations, i.e., the Natural Forest Conservation project and the Grain for Green project, are found to be the primary driving factors for vegetation increase. The increased vegetation coverage induces decrease in surface albedo and results in an increase in temperature. This positive effect can be counteracted by higher evapotranspiration and the net effect is a decrease in daytime land surface temperature. A higher evapotranspiration rate from restored vegetation is the primary reason for the reduced runoff coefficient. Other factors including less heavy precipitation, increased water consumption from town, industry and agriculture also appear to be the important causes for the reduction of runoff. These two ecological restoration projects produce both positive and negative effects on the overall ecosystem services. Thus, long-term continuous monitoring is needed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate-Magnitude and Determinants.

PubMed

Åström, Christofer; Åström, Daniel Oudin; Andersson, Camilla; Ebi, Kristie L; Forsberg, Bertil

2017-07-07

The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge.

Vulnerability Reduction Needed to Maintain Current Burdens of Heat-Related Mortality in a Changing Climate—Magnitude and Determinants

PubMed Central

Åström, Christofer; Oudin Åström, Daniel; Andersson, Camilla; L. Ebi, Kristie; Forsberg, Bertil

2017-01-01

The health burden from heatwaves is expected to increase with rising global mean temperatures and more extreme heat events over the coming decades. Health-related effects from extreme heat are more common in elderly populations. The population of Europe is rapidly aging, which will increase the health effects of future temperatures. In this study, we estimate the magnitude of adaptation needed to lower vulnerability to heat in order to prevent an increase in heat-related deaths in the 2050s; this is the Adaptive Risk Reduction (ARR) needed. Temperature projections under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 from 18 climate models were coupled with gridded population data and exposure-response relationships from a European multi-city study on heat-related mortality. In the 2050s, the ARR for the general population is 53.5%, based on temperature projections under RCP 4.5. For the population above 65 years in Southern Europe, the ARR is projected to be 45.9% in a future with an unchanged climate and 74.7% with climate change under RCP 4.5. The ARRs were higher under RCP 8.5. Whichever emission scenario is followed or population projection assumed, Europe will need to adapt to a great degree to maintain heat-related mortality at present levels, which are themselves unacceptably high, posing an even greater challenge. PMID:28686197

Consumer involvement in cancer research: example from a Cancer Network.

PubMed

Arain, Mubashir; Pyne, Sarah; Thornton, Nigel; Palmer, Susan; Sharma, Ricky A

2015-10-01

The involvement of consumers and the general public in improving cancer services is an important component of health services. However, consumer involvement in cancer research is relatively unexplored. The objective of this study was to explore different ways of involving consumers in cancer research in one regional network. Thames Valley Cancer Network Consumer Research Partnership (CRP) group was formed in 2009. The group consists of consumers and professionals to help in promoting consumer involvement in Cancer Research in the Thames Valley. This study evaluated the project of consumer involvement in cancer research in the Thames Valley from March 2010 to March 2011. We used different indices to judge the level of consumer involvement: number of projects involving consumers through the group, types of projects, level of involvement (ranged from consultation on research documents to collaborating in preparing grant applications) and the methods of involving consumers in cancer research. Fifteen projects were submitted to the CRP group during the 12-month period studied. Of these, eight projects were clinical trials, three were qualitative research projects, two were patients' surveys and two were non-randomized interventional studies. Seven projects requested consumer involvement on patient information sheets for clinical trials. Of these seven applications, three also requested consumers' help in designing research questionnaires and another three requested that consumers should be involved in their project management group. In addition, four projects involved consumers in the proposal development phase and another four projects asked for advice on how to increase trial recruitment, conduct patient interviews or help with grant applications. The creation of the CRP and this audit of its activity have documented consumer involvement in cancer research in the Thames Valley. We have clearly shown that consumers can be involved in designing and managing cancer research projects. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Assessment Of Carbon Leakage In Multiple Carbon-Sink Projects: ACase Study In Jambi Province, Indonesia

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boer, Rizaldi; Wasrin, Upik R.; Hendri, Perdinan

2007-06-01

Rehabilitation of degraded forest land throughimplementation of carbon sink projects can increase terrestrial carbonstock. However, carbon emissions outside the project boundary, which iscommonly referred to as leakage, may reduce or negate the sequestrationbenefits. This study assessed leakage from carbon sink projects thatcould potentially be implemented in the study area comprised of elevensub-districts in the Batanghari District, Jambi Province, Sumatra,Indonesia. The study estimates the probability of a given land use/coverbeing converted into other uses/cover, by applying a logit model. Thepredictor variables were: proximity to the center of the land use area,distance to transportation channel (road or river), area of agriculturalland, unemploymentmore » (number of job seekers), job opportunities, populationdensity and income. Leakage was estimated by analyzing with and withoutcarbon sink projects scenarios. Most of the predictors were estimated asbeing significant in their contribution to land use cover change. Theresults of the analysis show that leakage in the study area can be largeenough to more than offset the project's carbon sequestration benefitsduring the period 2002-2012. However, leakage results are very sensitiveto changes of carbon density of the land uses in the study area. Byreducing C-density of lowland and hill forest by about 10 percent for thebaseline scenario, the leakage becomes positive. Further data collectionand refinement is therefore required. Nevertheless, this study hasdemonstrated that regional analysis is a useful approach to assessleakage.« less

Embedding evidence-based practice among nursing undergraduates: Results from a pilot study.

PubMed

André, Beate; Aune, Anne G; Brænd, Jorunn A

2016-05-01

Evidence-based practice is currently one of the most important developments in health care. Research in nursing science is rapidly growing; however, translating the knowledge based on this research into clinical practice is often hampered, and may be dependent on reflective skills. The aim of this study was to see how undergraduate nursing students in nursing should increase their skills and knowledge related to evidence-based practice through participation in clinical research projects. A qualitative approach was used in collecting and analyzing the data. Students participated in a pilot clinical research project and a received guidance related to their bachelor thesis. After the project was completed, all students filled in a questionnaire. The students' motivation to participate in this study was reported to be high, but they reported low knowledge related to evidence-based practice. All students reported that their attitude towards evidence-based practice changed in a positive direction during their participation in the project. Evidence-based practice influenced nursing practices by putting more focus on critical thinking, increasing pride and giving a sense of ownership in the clinical field. The curricula and the pedagogical perspectives in nursing education can influence the attitude towards evidence-based practice and skills among nursing bachelor students. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climate change scenarios of heat waves in Central Europe and their uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lhotka, Ondřej; Kyselý, Jan; Farda, Aleš

2018-02-01

The study examines climate change scenarios of Central European heat waves with a focus on related uncertainties in a large ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX and ENSEMBLES projects. Historical runs (1970-1999) driven by global climate models (GCMs) are evaluated against the E-OBS gridded data set in the first step. Although the RCMs are found to reproduce the frequency of heat waves quite well, those RCMs with the coarser grid (25 and 50 km) considerably overestimate the frequency of severe heat waves. This deficiency is improved in higher-resolution (12.5 km) EURO-CORDEX RCMs. In the near future (2020-2049), heat waves are projected to be nearly twice as frequent in comparison to the modelled historical period, and the increase is even larger for severe heat waves. Uncertainty originates mainly from the selection of RCMs and GCMs because the increase is similar for all concentration scenarios. For the late twenty-first century (2070-2099), a substantial increase in heat wave frequencies is projected, the magnitude of which depends mainly upon concentration scenario. Three to four heat waves per summer are projected in this period (compared to less than one in the recent climate), and severe heat waves are likely to become a regular phenomenon. This increment is primarily driven by a positive shift of temperature distribution, but changes in its scale and enhanced temporal autocorrelation of temperature also contribute to the projected increase in heat wave frequencies.

Assessment of climate change impacts on runoff in China using climate elasticity and multiple CMIP5 GCMs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, C.; Hu, B. X.; Wang, P.; Xu, K.

2017-12-01

The occurrence of climate warming is unequivocal and is expected to alter the temporal-spatial patterns of regional water resources. Based on the long-term (1960-2012) water budget data and climate projections from 28 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results indicate a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.2 to 3.3) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from -2.3 to -0.2) across China. The P elasticity is larger in northeast and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. Climate projections suggest that there is large uncertainty involved among the GCM simulations, but most project a consistent change in P (or PET) over China at the mean annual scale. During the future period of 2071-2100, the mean annual P will likely increase in most parts of China particularly the western regions, while the mean annual PET will likely increase in the whole China especially the southern regions due to future increases in temperature. Moreover, larger increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Compared with the baseline 1971-2000, the arid regions and humid regions of China will likely become wetter and drier in the period 2071-2100, respectively.

Against all odds: Tales of survival and growth of the Foundational Approaches in Science Teaching (FAST) project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Karen Kina

This study examines the dynamics of survival and growth of curricular and instructional innovations. It focuses on the Foundational Approaches in Science Teaching (FAST) project, a long-term survivor of reform in science education. Key questions guiding this study include: (1) How did the FAST project survive over the past 30 years? (2) What elements are essential for long-term survival and growth of an innovative science program? (3) Why did the project continue to survive amidst several waves of educational reform? The core of my conceptual framework is that the odds of survival and growth of curricular and instructional innovations are increased by the extent to which resources, theory-based curriculum development processes, and professional development strategies are not only incorporated into but also interdependent within a project. With this framework as a guide, the main methods of data collection were document analysis, interviews, and observations. FAST, developed by the University of Hawaii's Curriculum Research and Development Group (CRDG), consists of a sequential and interdisciplinary middle and high school science program for students in grades 6-10. According to the results of this study, the project was able to survive by receiving constant organizational support from CRDG and a steady source of State funding through the university since 1966; it also retained a relatively small but stable staff of highly qualified project personnel. Formulated on a discipline-based theory that values development of students' intellectual capacities as the platform for curriculum research, design, and development, the FAST project translated this vision of science education into key elements of an innovative program that survived and thrived: (1) an interdisciplinary program consisting of physical, biological, and earth sciences; inquiry as content and process; history and philosophy of science; and links between and among sciences, technology, and society; and (2) teaching and learning strategies that model a community of practicing scientists. This study also identified the main elements of professional development strategies essential for an innovative project's survival and growth: linking curriculum development to required pre-implementation inservice training, engaging project personnel in both of these phases recruiting, training a cadre of experienced FAST teachers as inservice trainers, and providing follow-up professional development seminars. In conclusion, the FAST project survived mainly because the longevity of its leaders gave stability and continuity to the project. Against many odds such as limited financial resources and a small number of staff positions relative to the project's scope, the leaders managed with whatever resources were available to link theory-based curriculum development with professional development and, thereby, increase the project's chances for survival and growth.

Of Caucasians, Asians, and Giraffes: The Influence of Categorization and Target Valence on Social Projection.

PubMed

Machunsky, Maya; Walther, Eva

2015-09-01

Past research has indicated that social projection is moderated by categorization, with more projection onto ingroups than onto outgroups. However, a few studies have reported elevated levels of projection even onto outgroups. In line with recent evidence, we hypothesized that positive target valence is the key feature of conditions that elicit projection onto outgroups. The present research extends previous findings by testing whether the effect of valence occurs independent of categorization, with increased levels of projection onto positive ingroup and non-ingroup targets alike. We designed two experiments in which target valence was manipulated by means of evaluative conditioning. Category membership was varied by using faces of Caucasians, Asians, and giraffes. The results supported our valence hypothesis. Counter-intuitively, we also found higher levels of projection onto giraffes than onto humans. These findings suggest that current cognition-based models of projection are not sufficient to account for the whole range of projection phenomena. © 2015 by the Society for Personality and Social Psychology, Inc.

Uncertainty in Arctic hydrology projections and the permafrost-carbon feedback

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andresen, C. G.; Lawrence, D. M.; Wilson, C. J.; McGuire, D.

2017-12-01

Projected warming is expected to thaw permafrost soils and deepen the permafrost active layer. These changes will affect surface hydrological conditions. Since the soil hydrologic state exerts a strong influence on the rate and pathway of soil organic matter decomposition into CO2 or CH4, there is a strong need to examine and better understand model projections of hydrologic change and how differences in process representation affect projections of wetting and/or drying of changing permafrost landscapes. This study aims to advance understanding of where, when and why arctic will become wetter or drier. We assessed simulations from 8 "permafrost enabled" land models that were run in offline mode from 1960 to 2299 forced with the same projected climate for a high-emissions scenario. Climate models project increased precipitation (P) across most of the Arctic domain and the land models indicate that runoff and evapotranspiration (ET) will also both increase. In general, the water input to the soil (P-ET) also increases, but the models project a contradicting long-term drying of the surface soil. The surface drying in the models can generally be explained by filtration of moisture to deeper soil layers as the active layer deepens or by increased sub-surface drainage where permafrost in a grid cell thaws completely. Though, there is a qualitative agreement in this type of response across the models, the projections vary dramatically in magnitude. Variability among simulations is largely attributed to parameterization and structural differences across the participating models, particularly the diverse representations of evapotranspiration, water table and soil water storage and transmission. A limited set of results from single forcing experiments suggests that the warming effect in the sensitivity analysis was the principal driver of soil drying while CO2 and precipitation effects had a small wetting influence. When compared to observational data, simulations tend to underestimate discharge by a factor of 2 for the major arctic river basins. This analysis serves as a baseline to identify key process representation gaps and opportunities to improve representation of permafrost hydrology and associated projections of carbon and energy feedbacks in land models.

Using multiple climate projections for assessing hydrological response to climate change in the Thukela River Basin, South Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Graham, L. Phil; Andersson, Lotta; Horan, Mark; Kunz, Richard; Lumsden, Trevor; Schulze, Roland; Warburton, Michele; Wilk, Julie; Yang, Wei

This study used climate change projections from different regional approaches to assess hydrological effects on the Thukela River Basin in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. Projecting impacts of future climate change onto hydrological systems can be undertaken in different ways and a variety of effects can be expected. Although simulation results from global climate models (GCMs) are typically used to project future climate, different outcomes from these projections may be obtained depending on the GCMs themselves and how they are applied, including different ways of downscaling from global to regional scales. Projections of climate change from different downscaling methods, different global climate models and different future emissions scenarios were used as input to simulations in a hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on hydrology. A total of 10 hydrological change simulations were made, resulting in a matrix of hydrological response results. This matrix included results from dynamically downscaled climate change projections from the same regional climate model (RCM) using an ensemble of three GCMs and three global emissions scenarios, and from statistically downscaled projections using results from five GCMs with the same emissions scenario. Although the matrix of results does not provide complete and consistent coverage of potential uncertainties from the different methods, some robust results were identified. In some regards, the results were in agreement and consistent for the different simulations. For others, particularly rainfall, the simulations showed divergence. For example, all of the statistically downscaled simulations showed an annual increase in precipitation and corresponding increase in river runoff, while the RCM downscaled simulations showed both increases and decreases in runoff. According to the two projections that best represent runoff for the observed climate, increased runoff would generally be expected for this basin in the future. Dealing with such variability in results is not atypical for assessing climate change impacts in Africa and practitioners are faced with how to interpret them. This work highlights the need for additional, well-coordinated regional climate downscaling for the region to further define the range of uncertainties involved.

Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, and health impacts.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie L; McGregor, Glenn

2008-11-01

Because the state of the atmosphere determines the development, transport, dispersion, and deposition of air pollutants, there is concern that climate change could affect morbidity and mortality associated with elevated concentrations of these gases and fine particles. We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health. We review studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and studies projecting the impacts of these changes on morbidity and mortality. Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty include the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given these uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, which would increase morbidity and mortality. Few projections are available for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, primarily because few studies have been conducted. Additional research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution-related health impacts. If improved models continue to project higher ozone concentrations with climate change, then reducing greenhouse gas emissions would enhance the health of current and future generations.

Climate change impacts on projections of excess mortality at ...

EPA Pesticide Factsheets

We project the change in ozone-related mortality burden attributable to changes in climate between a historical (1995-2005) and near-future (2025-2035) time period while incorporating a non-linear and synergistic effect of ozone and temperature on mortality. We simulate air quality from climate projections varying only biogenic emissions and holding anthropogenic emissions constant, thus attributing changes in ozone only to changes in climate and independent of changes in air pollutant emissions. We estimate non-linear, spatially varying, ozone-temperature risk surfaces for 94 US urban areas using observeddata. Using the risk surfaces and climate projections we estimate daily mortality attributable to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. (moderate level) and 75 p.p.b. (US ozone NAAQS) for each time period. The average increases in city-specific median April-October ozone and temperature between time periods are 1.02 p.p.b. and 1.94 °F; however, the results variedby region . Increases in ozone because of climate change result in an increase in ozone mortality burden. Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 40 p.p.b. increases by 7.7% (1 .6-14.2%). Mortality attributed to ozone exceeding 75 p.p.b. increases by 14.2% (1.628.9%). The absolute increase in excess ozone mortality is larger for changes in moderate ozone levels, reflecting the larger number of days with moderate ozone levels. In this study we evaluate changes in ozone related mortality due to changes in biogenic f

Citizen science shows systematic changes in the temperature difference between air and inland waters with global warming.

PubMed

Weyhenmeyer, Gesa A; Mackay, Murray; Stockwell, Jason D; Thiery, Wim; Grossart, Hans-Peter; Augusto-Silva, Pétala B; Baulch, Helen M; de Eyto, Elvira; Hejzlar, Josef; Kangur, Külli; Kirillin, Georgiy; Pierson, Don C; Rusak, James A; Sadro, Steven; Woolway, R Iestyn

2017-03-06

Citizen science projects have a long history in ecological studies. The research usefulness of such projects is dependent on applying simple and standardized methods. Here, we conducted a citizen science project that involved more than 3500 Swedish high school students to examine the temperature difference between surface water and the overlying air (T w -T a ) as a proxy for sensible heat flux (Q H ). If Q H is directed upward, corresponding to positive T w -T a , it can enhance CO 2 and CH 4 emissions from inland waters, thereby contributing to increased greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere. The students found mostly negative T w -T a across small ponds, lakes, streams/rivers and the sea shore (i.e. downward Q H ), with T w -T a becoming increasingly negative with increasing T a . Further examination of T w -T a using high-frequency temperature data from inland waters across the globe confirmed that T w -T a is linearly related to T a . Using the longest available high-frequency temperature time series from Lake Erken, Sweden, we found a rapid increase in the occasions of negative T w -T a with increasing annual mean T a since 1989. From these results, we can expect that ongoing and projected global warming will result in increasingly negative T w -T a , thereby reducing CO 2 and CH 4 transfer velocities from inland waters into the atmosphere.

One more thing: Faculty response to increased emphasis on project teams in undergraduate engineering education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hunter, Jane

Tenured and tenure-track faculty members at institutions of higher education, especially those at Research I institutions, are being asked to do more than ever before. With rapidly changing technology, significant decreases in public funding, the shift toward privately funded research, and the ever increasing expectations of students for an education that adequately prepares them for professional careers, engineering faculty are particularly challenged by the escalating demands on their time. In 1996, the primary accreditation organization for engineering programs (ABET) adopted new criteria that required, among other things, engineering programs to teach students to function on multidisciplinary teams and to communicate effectively. In response, most engineering programs utilize project teams as a strategy for teaching these skills. The purpose of this qualitative study of tenured and tenure track engineering faculty at a Research I institution in the southwestern United States was to explore the variety of ways in which the engineering faculty responded to the demands placed upon them as a result of the increased emphasis on project teams in undergraduate engineering education. Social role theory and organizational climate theory guided the study. Some faculty viewed project teams as an opportunity for students to learn important professional skills and to benefit from collaborative learning but many questioned the importance and feasibility of teaching teamwork skills and had concerns about taking time away from other essential fundamental material such as mathematics, basic sciences and engineering sciences. Although the administration of the College of Engineering articulated strong support for the use of project teams in undergraduate education, the prevailing climate did little to promote significant efforts related to effective utilization of project teams. Too often, faculty were unwilling to commit sufficient time or effort to make project teamwork a truly valuable learning opportunity because those efforts were not perceived to be valuable and were rarely rewarded. Few formal professional development opportunities were available and few incentives were in place to encourage other informal efforts to develop the necessary skills. Those who committed significant effort to project teams were challenged by concerns about team composition, student accountability and assigning individual grades for group teamwork.

Photovoltaic evaluation study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Johnson, G.; Heikkilae, M.; Melasuo, T.; Spanner, S.

Realizing the value and potential of PV-power as well as the growing need for increased cooperation and sharing of knowledge in the field of photovoltaics, FINNIDA and UNICEF decided to undertake a study of selected PV-projects. There were two main objectives for the study: To gather, compile, evaluate and share information on the photovoltaic technology appropriate to developing countries, and to promote the interest and competence of Finnish research institutes, consultants and manufacturers in photovoltaic development. For this purpose a joint evaluation of significant, primarily UN-supported projects providing for the basic needs of rural communities was undertaken. The Gambia and Kenya offered a variety of such projects, and were chosen as target countries for the study. The projects were chosen to be both comparable and complimentary. In the Gambia, the main subject was a partially integrated health and telecommunications project, but a long-operating drinking water pumping system was also studied. In Kenya, a health project in the Turkana area was examined, and also a large scale water pumping installation for fish farming. Field visits were made in order to verify and supplement the data gathered through document research and earlier investigations. Individual data gathering sheets for the project form the core of this study and are intended to give the necessary information in an organized and accessible format. The findings could practically be condensed into one sentence: PV-systems work very well, if properly designed and installed, but the resources and requirements of the recipients must be considered to a higher degree.

Projecting the land cover change and its environmental impacts in the Cedar River Basin in the Midwestern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Sohl, Terry L.; Young, Claudia

2013-01-01

The physical surface of the Earth is in constant change due to climate forcing and human activities. In the Midwestern United States, urban area, farmland, and dedicated energy crop (e.g., switchgrass) cultivation are predicted to expand in the coming decades, which will lead to changes in hydrological processes. This study is designed to (1) project the land use and land cover (LULC) by mid-century using the FORecasting SCEnarios of future land-use (FORE-SCE) model under the A1B greenhouse gas emission scenario (future condition) and (2) assess its potential impacts on the water cycle and water quality against the 2001 baseline condition in the Cedar River Basin using the physically based soil and water assessment tool (SWAT). We compared the baseline LULC (National Land Cover data 2001) and 2050 projection, indicating substantial expansions of urban area and pastureland (including the cultivation of bioenergy crops) and a decrease in rangeland. We then used the above two LULC maps as the input data to drive the SWAT model, keeping other input data (e.g., climate) unchanged to isolate the LULC change impacts. The modeling results indicate that quick-response surface runoff would increase significantly (about 10.5%) due to the projected urban expansion (i.e., increase in impervious areas), and the baseflow would decrease substantially (about 7.3%) because of the reduced infiltration. Although the net effect may cause an increase in water yield, the increased variability may impede its use for public supply. Additionally, the cultivation of bioenergy crops such as switchgrass in the newly added pasture lands may further reduce the soil water content and lead to an increase in nitrogen loading (about 2.5% increase) due to intensified fertilizer application. These study results will be informative to decision makers for sustainable water resource management when facing LULC change and an increasing demand for biofuel production in this area.

Projected wood energy impact on US forest wood resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Skog, K.E.

1993-12-31

The USDA Forest Service has developed long-term projections of wood energy use as part of a 1993 assessment of demand for and supply of resources from forest and range lands in the United States. To assess the impact of wood energy demand on timber resources, a market equilibrium model based on linear programming was developed to project residential, industrial, commercial, and utility wood energy use from various wood energy sources: roundwood from various land sources, primary wood products mill residue, other wood residue, and black liquor. Baseline projections are driven by projected price of fossil fuels compared to price ofmore » wood fuels and the projected increase in total energy use in various end uses. Wood energy use is projected to increase from 2.67 quad in 1986 to 3.5 quad in 2030 and 3.7 quad in 2040. This is less than the DOE National Energy Strategy projection of 5.5 quad in 2030. Wood energy from forest sources (roundwood) is projected to increase from 3.1 billion (10{sup 9}) ft{sup 3} in 1986 to 4.4. billion ft{sup 3} in 2030 and 4.8 billion ft{sup 3} in 2040 (88, 124 and 136 million m{sup 3}, respectively). This rate of increase of roundwood use for fuel -- 0.8 percent per year -- is virtually the same as the projected increase rate for roundwood for pulpwood. Pulpwood roundwood is projected to increase from 4.2 billion ft{sup 3} in 1986 to 6.0 billion ft{sup 3} in 2030 and 6.4 billion ft{sup 3} in 2040 (119, 170 and 183 million m{sup 3}, respectively).« less

Projections of leaf area index in earth system models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahowald, Natalie; Lo, Fiona; Zheng, Yun; Harrison, Laura; Funk, Chris; Lombardozzi, Danica; Goodale, Christine

2016-03-01

The area of leaves in the plant canopy, measured as leaf area index (LAI), modulates key land-atmosphere interactions, including the exchange of energy, moisture, carbon dioxide (CO2), and other trace gases and aerosols, and is therefore an essential variable in predicting terrestrial carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Here our goal is to characterize the LAI projections from the latest generation of earth system models (ESMs) for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. On average, the models project increases in LAI in both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 over most of the globe, but also show decreases in some parts of the tropics. Because of projected increases in variability, there are also more frequent periods of low LAI across broad regions of the tropics. Projections of LAI changes varied greatly among models: some models project very modest changes, while others project large changes, usually increases. Modeled LAI typically increases with modeled warming in the high latitudes, but often decreases with increasing local warming in the tropics. The models with the most skill in simulating current LAI in the tropics relative to satellite observations tend to project smaller increases in LAI in the tropics in the future compared to the average of all the models. Using LAI projections to identify regions that may be vulnerable to climate change presents a slightly different picture than using precipitation projections, suggesting LAI may be an additional useful tool for understanding climate change impacts. Going forward, users of LAI projections from the CMIP5 ESMs evaluated here should be aware that model outputs do not exhibit clear-cut relationships to vegetation carbon and precipitation. Our findings underscore the need for more attention to LAI projections, in terms of understanding the drivers of projected changes and improvements to model skill.

Projections of leaf area index in earth system models

DOE PAGES

Mahowald, Natalie; Lo, Fiona; Zheng, Yun; ...

2016-03-09

The area of leaves in the plant canopy, measured as leaf area index (LAI), modulates key land–atmosphere interactions, including the exchange of energy, moisture, carbon dioxide (CO 2), and other trace gases and aerosols, and is therefore an essential variable in predicting terrestrial carbon, water, and energy fluxes. Here our goal is to characterize the LAI projections from the latest generation of earth system models (ESMs) for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. On average, the models project increases in LAI in both RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 over most of the globe, but also show decreases in somemore » parts of the tropics. Because of projected increases in variability, there are also more frequent periods of low LAI across broad regions of the tropics. Projections of LAI changes varied greatly among models: some models project very modest changes, while others project large changes, usually increases. Modeled LAI typically increases with modeled warming in the high latitudes, but often decreases with increasing local warming in the tropics. The models with the most skill in simulating current LAI in the tropics relative to satellite observations tend to project smaller increases in LAI in the tropics in the future compared to the average of all the models. Using LAI projections to identify regions that may be vulnerable to climate change presents a slightly different picture than using precipitation projections, suggesting LAI may be an additional useful tool for understanding climate change impacts. Going forward, users of LAI projections from the CMIP5 ESMs evaluated here should be aware that model outputs do not exhibit clear-cut relationships to vegetation carbon and precipitation. Lastly, our findings underscore the need for more attention to LAI projections, in terms of understanding the drivers of projected changes and improvements to model skill.« less

Changes in regional heatwave characteristics as a function of increasing global temperature.

PubMed

Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S E; Gibson, P B

2017-09-25

The Paris Agreement calls for global warming to be limited to 1.5-2 °C. For the first time, this study investigates how different regional heatwave characteristics (intensity, frequency and duration) are projected to change relative to increasing global warming thresholds. Increases in heatwave days between 4-34 extra days per season are projected per °C of global warming. Some tropical regions could experience up to 120 extra heatwave days/season if 5 °C is reached. Increases in heatwave intensity are generally 0.5-1.5 °C above a given global warming threshold, however are higher over the Mediterranean and Central Asian regions. Between warming thresholds of 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C, the return intervals of intense heatwaves reduce by 2-3 fold. Heatwave duration is projected to increase by 2-10 days/°C, with larger changes over lower latitudes. Analysis of two climate model ensembles indicate that variation in the rate of heatwave changes is dependent on physical differences between different climate models, however internal climate variability bears considerable influence on the expected range of regional heatwave changes per warming threshold. The results of this study reiterate the potential for disastrous consequences associated with regional heatwaves if global mean warming is not limited to 2 degrees.

Variation in the distribution of four cacti species due to climate change in Chihuahua, Mexico.

PubMed

Cortes, Leonor; Domínguez, Irma; Lebgue, Toutcha; Viramontes, Oscar; Melgoza, Alicia; Pinedo, Carmelo; Camarillo, Javier

2013-12-24

This study is about four cacti species in the state of Chihuahua, (Coryphantha macromeris, Mammillaria lasiacantha, Echinocereus dasyacanthus and Ferocactus wislizenii). Geographic distribution was inferred with MaxEnt. Projection was estimated under three scenarios simulated from IPCC (A2, B1 and A1B) and four periods (2000, 2020, 2050 and 2080) with 19 climatic variables. MaxEnt projects a species decrease in 2020 under scenario A2, increasing in the following years. In 2080 all species, except E. dasyacanthus, will occupy a larger area than their current one. Scenario B1 projected for 2050 a decrease for all species, and in 2080 all species except E. dasyacanthus will increase their area. With A1B, C. macromeris decreases 27% from 2020 to 2050. E. dasyacanthus increases from 2020 to 2050 and decreases 73% from 2020 to 2080. M. lasiacantha decreases 13% from 2020 to 2080 and F. wislizenii will increase 13% from 2020 to 2080. Some species will remain stable on their areas despite climate changes, and other species may be affected under the conditions of the A1B scenario. It is important to continue with studies which give a broader perspective about the consequences of climate change, thus enabling decision-making about resource management.

Student ownership of projects in an upper-division optics laboratory course: A multiple case study of successful experiences

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dounas-Frazer, Dimitri R.; Stanley, Jacob T.; Lewandowski, H. J.

2017-12-01

We investigate students' sense of ownership of multiweek final projects in an upper-division optics lab course. Using a multiple case study approach, we describe three student projects in detail. Within-case analyses focused on identifying key issues in each project, and constructing chronological descriptions of those events. Cross-case analysis focused on identifying emergent themes with respect to five dimensions of project ownership: student agency, instructor mentorship, peer collaboration, interest and value, and affective responses. Our within- and cross-case analyses yielded three major findings. First, coupling division of labor with collective brainstorming can help balance student agency, instructor mentorship, and peer collaboration. Second, students' interest in the project and perceptions of its value can increase over time; initial student interest in the project topic is not a necessary condition for student ownership of the project. Third, student ownership is characterized by a wide range of emotions that fluctuate as students alternate between extended periods of struggle and moments of success while working on their projects. These findings not only extend the literature on student ownership into a new educational domain—namely, upper-division physics labs—they also have concrete implications for the design of experimental physics projects in courses for which student ownership is a desired learning outcome. We describe the course and projects in sufficient detail that others can adapt our results to their particular contexts.

Integrated Assessment of Hadley Centre (HadCM2) Climate Change Projections on Agricultural Productivity and Irrigation Water Supply in the Conterminous United States.I. Climate change scenarios and impacts on irrigation water supply simulated with the HUMUS model.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rosenberg, Norman J.; Brown, Robert A.; Izaurralde, R Cesar C.

This paper describes methodology and results of a study by researchers at PNNL contributing to the water sector study of the U.S. National Assessment of Climate Change. The vulnerability of water resources in the conterminous U.S. to climate change in 10-y periods centered on 2030 and 2095--as projected by the HadCM2 general circulation model--was modeled with HUMUS (Hydrologic Unit Model of the U.S.). HUMUS consists of a GIS that provides data on soils, land use and climate to drive the hydrology model Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The modeling was done at the scale of the 2101 8-digit USGS hydrologicmore » unit areas (HUA). Results are aggregated to the 4-digit and 2-digit (Major Water Resource Region, MWRR) scales for various purposes. Daily records of temperature and precipitation for 1961-1990 provided the baseline climate. Water yields (WY)--sum of surface and subsurface runoff--increases from the baseline period over most of the U.S. in 2030 and 2095. In 2030, WY increases in the western US and decreases in the central and southeast regions. Notably, WY increases by 139 mm from baseline in the Pacific NW. Decreased WY is projected for the Lower Mississippi and Texas Gulf basins, driven by higher temperatures and reduced precipitation. The HadCM2 2095 scenario projects a climate significantly wetter than baseline, resulting in WY increases of 38%. WY increases are projected throughout the eastern U.S. WY also increases in the western U.S. Climate change also affects the seasonality of the hydrologic cycle. Early snowmelt is induced in western basins, leading to dramatically increased WYs in late winter and early spring. The simulations were run at current (365 ppm) and elevated (560 ppm) atmospheric CO2 concentrations to account for the potential impacts of the CO2-fertilization effect. The effects of climate change scenario were considerably greater than those due to elevated CO2 but the latter, overall, decreased losses and augmented increases in water yield.« less

Feasibility study to increase utilization at the Port of Davisville (Quonset, RI)

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2009-08-01

This project investigated the logistics and transportation issues associated with establishing and : increasing the use of shipping containers to import and export goods into the Rhode Island : geographic area using the Port of Davisville. The Port o...

Making continental-scale environmental programs relevant locally for educators with Project BudBurst

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goehring, L.; Henderson, S.; Wasser, L.; Newman, S. J.; Ward, D.

2012-12-01

Project BudBurst is a national citizen science initiative designed to engage non professionals in observations of phenological (plant life cycle) events that raise awareness of climate change, and create a cadre of informed citizen scientists. Citizen science programs such as Project BudBurst provide excellent opportunities for educators and their students to actively participate in scientific research. Such programs are important not only from an educational perspective, but because they also enable scientists to broaden the geographic and temporal scale of their observations. The goals of Project BudBurst are to 1) increase awareness of phenology as an area of scientific study; 2) increase awareness of the impacts of changing climates on plants at a continental-scale; and 3) increase science literacy by engaging participants in the scientific process. From its 2008 launch, this on-line program has engaged participants of all ages and walks of life in recording the timing of the leafing and flowering of wild and cultivated species found across the continent, and in contemplating the meaning of such data in their local environments. Thus far, thousands of participants from all 50 states have submitted data. This presentation will provide an overview of Project BudBurst educational resources and share lessons learned from educators in implementing the program in formal and informal education settings. Lesson plans and tips from educators will be highlighted. Project BudBurst is co-managed by the National Ecological Observatory Network and the Chicago Botanic Garden.

CMIP5-based global wave climate projections including the entire Arctic Ocean

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casas-Prat, M.; Wang, X. L.; Swart, N.

2018-03-01

This study presents simulations of the global ocean wave climate corresponding to the surface winds and sea ice concentrations as simulated by five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models for the historical (1979-2005) and RCP8.5 scenario future (2081-2100) periods. To tackle the numerical complexities associated with the inclusion of the North Pole, the WAVEWATCH III (WW3) wave model was used with a customized unstructured Spherical Multi-Cell grid of ∼100 km offshore and ∼50 km along coastlines. The climate model simulated wind and sea ice data, and the corresponding WW3 simulated wave data, were evaluated against reanalysis and hindcast data. The results show that all the five sets of wave simulations projected lower waves in the North Atlantic, corresponding to decreased surface wind speeds there in the warmer climate. The selected CMIP5 models also consistently projected an increase in the surface wind speed in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-high latitudes, which translates in an increase in the WW3 simulated significant wave height (Hs) there. The higher waves are accompanied with increased peak wave period and increased wave age in the East Pacific and Indian Oceans, and a significant counterclockwise rotation in the mean wave direction in the Southern Oceans. The latter is caused by more intense waves from the SH traveling equatorward and developing into swells. Future wave climate in the Arctic Ocean in summer is projected to be predominantly of mixed sea states, with the climatological mean of September maximum Hs ranging mostly 3-4 m. The new waves approaching Arctic coasts will be less fetch-limited as ice retreats since a predominantly southwards mean wave direction is projected in the surrounding seas.

Global projections of drought hazard in a warming climate: a prime for disaster risk management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carrão, Hugo; Naumann, Gustavo; Barbosa, Paulo

2018-03-01

Projections of drought hazard ( dH) changes have been mapped from five bias-corrected climate models and analyzed at the global level under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The motivation for this study is the observation that drought risk is increasing globally and the effective regulation of prevention and adaptation measures depends on dH magnitude and its distribution for the future. Based on the Weighted Anomaly of Standardized Precipitation index, dH changes have been assessed for mid-(2021-2050) and late-century (2071-2099). With a few exceptions, results show a likely increase in global dH between the historical years (1971-2000) and both future time periods under all RCPs. Notwithstanding this worsening trend, it was found that projections of dH changes for most regions are neither robust nor significant in the near-future. By the end of the century, greater increases are projected for RCPs describing stronger radiative forcing. Under RCP8.5, statistically significant dH changes emerge for global Mediterranean ecosystems and the Amazon region, which are identified as possible hotspots for future water security issues. Taken together, projections of dH changes point towards two dilemmas: (1) in the near-term, stake-holders are left worrying about projected increasing dH over large regions, but lack of actionable model agreement to take effective decisions related to local prevention and adaptation initiatives; (2) in the long-term, models demonstrate remarkable agreement, but stake-holders lack actionable knowledge to manage potential impacts far distant from actual human-dominated environments. We conclude that the major challenge for risk management is not to adapt human populations or their activities to dH changes, but to progress on global initiatives that mitigate their impacts in the whole carbon cycle by late-century.

Future scenarios of land change based on empirical data and demographic trends

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason

2017-01-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001–2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a “business-as-usual” (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr−1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40–90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Future Scenarios of Land Change Based on Empirical Data and Demographic Trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wilson, Tamara S.; Sharygin, Ethan; Sherba, Jason T.

2017-11-01

Changes in land use and land cover (LULC) have important and fundamental interactions with the global climate system. Top-down global scale projections of land use change have been an important component of climate change research; however, their utility at local to regional scales is often limited. The goal of this study was to develop an approach for projecting changes in LULC based on land use histories and demographic trends. We developed a set of stochastic, empirical-based projections of LULC change for the state of California, for the period 2001-2100. Land use histories and demographic trends were used to project a "business-as-usual" (BAU) scenario and three population growth scenarios. For the BAU scenario, we projected developed lands would more than double by 2100. When combined with cultivated areas, we projected a 28% increase in anthropogenic land use by 2100. As a result, natural lands were projected to decline at a rate of 139 km2 yr-1; grasslands experienced the largest net decline, followed by shrublands and forests. The amount of cultivated land was projected to decline by approximately 10%; however, the relatively modest change masked large shifts between annual and perennial crop types. Under the three population scenarios, developed lands were projected to increase 40-90% by 2100. Our results suggest that when compared to the BAU projection, scenarios based on demographic trends may underestimate future changes in LULC. Furthermore, regardless of scenario, the spatial pattern of LULC change was likely to have the greatest negative impacts on rangeland ecosystems.

Implementation of authentic assessment in the project based learning to improve student's concept mastering

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sambeka, Yana; Nahadi, Sriyati, Siti

2017-05-01

The study aimed to obtain the scientific information about increase of student's concept mastering in project based learning that used authentic assessment. The research was conducted in May 2016 at one of junior high school in Bandung in the academic year of 2015/2016. The research method was weak experiment with the one-group pretest-posttest design. The sample was taken by random cluster sampling technique and the sample was 24 students. Data collected through instruments, i.e. written test, observation sheet, and questionnaire sheet. Student's concept mastering test obtained N-Gain of 0.236 with the low category. Based on the result of paired sample t-test showed that implementation of authentic assessment in the project based learning increased student's concept mastering significantly, (sig<0.05).

Citizen science participation in research in the environmental sciences: key factors related to projects' success and longevity.

PubMed

Cunha, Davi G F; Marques, Jonatas F; Resende, Juliana C DE; Falco, Patrícia B DE; Souza, Chrislaine M DE; Loiselle, Steven A

2017-01-01

The potential impacts of citizen science initiatives are increasing across the globe, albeit in an imbalanced manner. In general, there is a strong element of trial and error in most projects, and the comparison of best practices and project structure between different initiatives remains difficult. In Brazil, the participation of volunteers in environmental research is limited. Identifying the factors related to citizen science projects' success and longevity within a global perspective can contribute for consolidating such practices in the country. In this study, we explore past and present projects, including a case study in Brazil, to identify the spatial and temporal trends of citizen science programs as well as their best practices and challenges. We performed a bibliographic search using Google Scholar and considered results from 2005-2014. Although these results are subjective due to the Google Scholar's algorithm and ranking criteria, we highlighted factors to compare projects across geographical and disciplinary areas and identified key matches between project proponents and participants, project goals and local priorities, participant profiles and engagement, scientific methods and funding. This approach is a useful starting point for future citizen science projects, allowing for a systematic analysis of potential inconsistencies and shortcomings in this emerging field.

Project SEARCH for Youth with Autism Spectrum Disorders: Increasing Competitive Employment on Transition from High School

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Wehman, Paul; Schall, Carol; McDonough, Jennifer; Molinelli, Alissa; Riehle, Erin; Ham, Whitney; Thiss, Weston R.

2013-01-01

Supporting youth with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) in the transition to adulthood is challenging. This article provides a description of how Project SEARCH, a model transition program for youth with disabilities, was used to help youth with ASD gain competitive employment. This article includes two case studies and a thorough description of the…

A Design-Based Research Case Study Documenting a Constructivist ID Process and Instructional Solution for a Cross-Cultural Workforce

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tracey, Monica W.; Unger, Kelly L.

2012-01-01

As the need for instructing a globalized workforce increases, instructional designers must embrace the constraints and the opportunities these projects provide in order to move the field of cross-cultural instructional design (ID) forward. Cross-cultural projects offer multiple avenues for growth in ID practice, overcoming cultural barriers, and a…

The 1988 Inland Waterway Review

DTIC Science & Technology

1988-11-01

Maintenance Costs ............. 91 Table 4.3 Major Rehabilitation Projects: ............................... 92 Table 4.4 Scheduled Constructed Projects in the...Maintenance Costs .......................... 100 Figure 4.7 Operations and Maintenance Costs Per Ton Mile in 1986 For Inland Waterways Suspect to Fuel Tax...application of study and construction cost -sharing. It also increased waterway fuel taxes and created the Inland Waterways Users Board. In effect, the Act

Preliminary Findings of the PAULEX Project: A Proposal for the Internet-Based Valencian University Entrance Examination

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Garcia Laborda, Jesus

2012-01-01

Although there is an increasing number of online tests in the world, little research is currently known in Spain today. Assessment has become an integral part of education and the implications of the various uses of language testing go beyond the educational settings (Douglas, 2010; Fulcher, 2010). This study describes the PAULEX project. This…

Alternative Future Fleet Platform Architecture Study

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-10-27

establishing sea control - projecting power - winning decisively To accomplish these missions, the Navy Project Team derived a ‘Distributed...allies and partners, and deter potential aggressors. The Distributed Fleet was further conceived to deliver decisive combat power , as part of a joint...global information system – the information that rides on the servers, undersea cables, satellites, and wireless networks that increasingly envelop

Teachers and Game-Based Learning: Improving Understanding of How to Increase Efficacy of Adoption

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ketelhut, Diane Jass; Schifter, Catherine C.

2011-01-01

Interest in game-based learning for K-12 is growing. Thus, helping teachers understand how to use these new pedagogies is important. This paper presents a cross-case study of the development of teacher professional development for the River City project, a games-based multi-user virtual environment science curriculum project for middle school…

Improving Homework Completion and Motivation of Middle School Students through Behavior Modification, Graphing, and Parent Communication

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hein, Dawn L.; Wimer, Sandra L.

2007-01-01

An action research project report was complete to discuss how homework completion and motivation is an ongoing issue and debate within the public schools. This is especially true in the middle school setting. The teacher researchers of this project chose to conduct a study in order to increase homework completion and motivation of middle school…

The Internet and Education: Findings of the Pew Internet & American Life Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lenhart, Amanda; Simon, Maya; Graziano, Mike

Research by the Pew Internet & American Life Project shows that teenagers use the Internet as an essential study aid outside the classroom and that the Internet increasingly has a place inside the classroom. Findings from a survey of 754 youths ages 12-17 conducted November and December 2000 include: 94% who have Internet access say they use the…

The Origins of the "Two Cultures" Debate in the Adult Education Movement: The Case of the Working Men's College (c.1854-1914)

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sutcliffe, Marcella Pellegrino

2014-01-01

Focusing on the Working Men's College (WMC), this study charts the chequered fortunes of a Victorian project: providing workers with a "liberal education." The paper analyses the project's aim (making "better citizens"), its disciplinary content (the humanities and/or the sciences) and its challenges (the increasing prestige of…

A review of BIM (Building Information Modeling) implementation in Indonesia construction industry

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Suryadinata Telaga, Abdi

2018-05-01

Construction projects in Indonesia have been growing rapidly in the last three years. Therefore, construction management is very important to ensure completion of construction projects are within schedule and budget. Utilization of building information modeling (BIM) can increase the efficiency of a construction project. However, the implementation of BIM in Indonesia is still not known. This paper is intended to review the implementation of BIM in Indonesia through literature analysis. To find BIM articles in Indonesia, Firstly, searching was limited to English articles published in reputed journals or conferences. However the results were limited, then the search was expanded to the article using Indonesian languages that published in journal and conference. Based on the number of articles, the results showed that BIM research in Indonesia is still in a dearth. Furthermore, BIM study cases were conducted in a limited location and within a small population. Nevertheless, the literature shared the conclusion that BIM can increase project efficiency, but the implementation was hindered by high initial investment cost, inadequate human resources, small demand, and technology resistant. The research contributes to providing a current reported level of BIM implementation in Indonesia. In the future research to study of BIM implementation comprehensively in Indonesia is eminent.

The Veggie Project: a case study of a multi-component farmers' market intervention.

PubMed

Freedman, Darcy A; Bell, Bethany A; Collins, Leslie V

2011-08-01

This case study provides an in-depth examination of process and feasibility factors associated with the development of a multi-component environmental intervention designed to increase access to fresh fruits and vegetables in four low-income, minority, urban communities with few healthy food retail outlets. The intervention, the Veggie Project, included three components: (a) onsite farmers' markets, (b) a Super Shopper voucher program, and (c) a Youth Leader Board. We analyzed receipts from sales transactions at the farmers' markets, close-ended surveys with participants, in-depth interviews with project stakeholders, and journal entries completed by youth participants. Thirty-four farmers' markets occurred, resulting in 1,101 sales transactions. Financial vouchers were used to purchased 63% of the produce. All of the youth Super Shoppers came to the market at least once and made significantly more purchase transactions than adults. The farmers' markets were never accessed by 38% of the adult Super Shoppers. The Veggie Project increased access to healthy foods, particularly among youth. More research is warranted to examine the relationship between market use and dietary behaviors as well as other factors (i.e., besides physical and economic) influencing food access among adults.

Association of market, organizational and financial factors with the number, and types of capital expenditures.

PubMed

McCue, Michael J

2011-01-01

Prior literature provides only a descriptive view of the types and numbers of capital expenditures made by hospitals. This study conducted an empirical analysis to assess simultaneously what market, organizational, and financial factors relate to the number of capital projects as well as the specific types: medical equipment, expansion, and maintenance projects. Sampling California hospital capital expenditure data from 2002 to 2007, this study aggregated the number of capital projects by each type of capital investment decision: medical equipment, expansion, and maintenance/renovation per hospital. Using ordinary least squares regression, this study evaluated the association of these factors with these types of capital investment projects. This study found that hospitals capturing a greater share of the market, maintaining high levels of liquidity, and operating with more than 350 beds invested in a greater number of capital projects per hospital as well as medical equipment and expansionary projects per hospital. Within the state of California, the demand for health care services within a hospital market as well as cash and investment reserves were key drivers in the hospital CEOs and boards' decision to increase their capital purchases. The types of purchases included capital outlays related to medical equipment, such as CT scanners, MRIs, and surgical systems, and revenue-generating expansionary projects, such as new bed towers, hospitals wings, operating and emergency rooms, and replacement hospitals from 2002 to 2007.

A study to define and verify a model of interactive-constructive elementary school science teaching

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henriques, Laura

This study took place within a four year systemic reform effort collaboratively undertaken by the Science Education Center at the University of Iowa and a local school district. Key features of the inservice project included the use of children's literature as a springboard into inquiry based science investigations, activities to increase parents' involvement in children's science learning and extensive inservice opportunities for elementary teachers to increase content knowledge and content-pedagogical knowledge. The overarching goal of this elementary science teacher enhancement project was to move teachers towards an interactive-constructivist model of teaching and learning. This study had three components. The first was the definition of the prototype teacher indicated by the project's goals and supported by science education research. The second involved the generation of a model to show relationships between teacher-generated products, demographics and their subsequent teaching behaviors. The third involved the verification of the hypothesized model using data collected on 15 original participants. Demographic information, survey responses, interview and written responses to scenarios were among the data collected as source variables. These were scored using a rubric designed to measure constructivist practices in science teaching. Videotapes of science teaching and revised science curricula were collected as downstream variables and scored using an the ESTEEM observational rubric and a rubric developed for the project. Results indicate that newer teachers were more likely to implement features of the project. Those teachers who were philosophically aligned with project goals before project involvement were also more likely to implement features of the project. Other associations between reported beliefs, planning and classroom implementations were not confirmed by these data. Data show that teachers reported higher levels of implementation than their classroom teaching indicated. Qualitative analysis indicated teachers who were more likely to implement the goals of this project were flexible, spontaneous, and able to give students more choices and responsibilities for their own learning. These teachers routinely used children's ideas and interests to guide instruction. Recommendations for future inservice are included. Discussion centers around elements of time, teacher input, teacher reflection, teachers as leaders and leaders' modeling of advocated practices.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Agol, Dorice, E-mail: d.agol@uea.a.c.uk; Latawiec, Agnieszka E., E-mail: a.latawiec@iis-rio.org; Opole University of Technology, Department of Production Engineering and Logistics, Luboszycka 5, 45-036 Opole

There has been an increased interest in using sustainability indicators for evaluating the impacts of development and conservation projects. Past and recent experiences have shown that sustainability indicators can be powerful tools for measuring the outcomes of various interventions, when used appropriately and adequately. Currently, there is a range of methods for applying sustainability indicators for project impact evaluation at the environment–development interface. At the same time, a number of challenges persist which have implication for impact evaluation processes especially in developing countries. We highlight some key and recurrent challenges, using three cases from Kenya, Indonesia and Brazil. In thismore » study, we have conducted a comparative analysis across multiple projects from the three countries, which aimed to conserve biodiversity and improve livelihoods. The assessments of these projects were designed to evaluate their positive, negative, short-term, long term, direct and indirect impacts. We have identified a set of commonly used sustainability indicators to evaluate the projects and have discussed opportunities and challenges associated with their application. Our analysis shows that impact evaluation processes present good opportunities for applying sustainability indicators. On the other hand, we find that project proponents (e.g. managers, evaluators, donors/funders) face challenges with establishing full impacts of interventions and that these are rooted in monitoring and evaluation processes, lack of evidence-based impacts, difficulties of measuring certain outcomes and concerns over scale of a range of impacts. We outline key lessons learnt from the multiple cases and propose ways to overcome common problems. Results from our analysis demonstrate practical experiences of applying sustainability indicators in developing countries context where there are different prevailing socio-economic, cultural and environmental conditions. The knowledge derived from this study may therefore be useful to a wider range of audience who are concerned with sustainable integration of development and environmental conservation. - Highlights: • Sustainability indicators are increasingly used for evaluating project impacts. • Lessons learnt are based on case studies from Africa, Asia and South America. • Similar challenges when assessing impacts of development and conservation projects • Need for pragmatic solutions to overcome challenges when assessing project impacts.« less

Undergraduate-driven interventions to increase representation in science classrooms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freilich, M.; Aluthge, D.; Bryant, R. M.; Knox, B.; McAdams, J.; Plummer, A.; Schlottman, N.; Stanley, Z.; Suglia, E.; Watson-Daniels, J.

2014-12-01

Recognizing that racial, ethnic, and gender underrepresentation in science classrooms persists despite intervention programs and institutional commitments to diversity, a group of undergraduates from a variety of backgrounds and academic disciplines came together for a group independent study to (a) study the theoretical foundations of the current practice of science and of programs meant to increase diversity, (b) utilize the experiences of course participants and our peers to better understand the drivers of underrepresentation, and (c) design and implement interventions at Brown University. We will present on individual and small group projects designed by course members in collaboration with faculty. The projects emerged from an exploration of literature in history, philosophy, and sociology of science, as well as an examination of anthropological and psychological studies. We also evaluated the effectiveness of top-down and bottom-up approaches that have already been attempted in developing our projects. They focus on the specific problems faced by underrepresented minorities, women, LGBTQ+ people, and well-represented minorities. We will share experiences of faculty-student collaboration and engaged scholarship focused on representation in science and discuss student-designed interventions.

GFAP immunoreactivity within the rat nucleus ambiguus after laryngeal nerve injury

PubMed Central

Berdugo-Vega, G; Arias-Gil, G; Rodriguez-Niedenführ, M; Davies, D C; Vázquez, T; Pascual-Font, A

2014-01-01

Changes that occur in astroglial populations of the nucleus ambiguus after recurrent (RLN) or superior (SLN) laryngeal nerve injury have hitherto not been fully characterised. In the present study, rat RLN and SLN were lesioned. After 3, 7, 14, 28 or 56 days of survival, the nucleus ambiguus was investigated by means of glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP) immunofluorescence or a combination of GFAP immunofluorescence and the application of retrograde tracers. GFAP immunoreactivity was significantly increased 3 days after RLN resection and it remained significantly elevated until after 28 days post injury (dpi). By 56 dpi it had returned to basal levels. In contrast, following RLN transection with repair, GFAP immunoreactivity was significantly elevated at 7 dpi and remained significantly elevated until 14 dpi. It had returned to basal levels by 28 dpi. Topographical analysis of the distribution of GFAP immunoreactivity revealed that after RLN injury, GFAP immunoreactivity was increased beyond the area of the nucleus ambiguus within which RLN motor neuron somata were located. GFAP immunoreactivity was also observed in the vicinity of neuronal somata that project into the uninjured SLN. Similarly, lesion of the SLN resulted in increased GFAP immunoreactivity around the neuronal somata projecting into it and also in the vicinity of the motor neuron somata projecting into the RLN. The increase in GFAP immunoreactivity outside of the region containing the motor neurons projecting into the injured nerve, may reflect the onset of a regenerative process attempting to compensate for impairment of one of the laryngeal nerves and may occur because of the dual innervation of the posterior cricoarytenoid muscle. This dual innervation of a very specialised muscle could provide a useful model system for studying the molecular mechanisms underlying axonal regeneration process and the results of the current study could provide the basis for studies into functional regeneration following laryngeal nerve injury, with subsequent application to humans. PMID:25181319

Increasing the Impact of Federally-Administered Vocational Education Exemplary Projects. Final Report. Leadership Training Series No. 52.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hull, William L.; Bina, James V.

This report was written as a companion piece to "Increasing the Impact of Innovative Projects," proceedings of the national conference on the impact of federally-administered vocational education exemplary projects. Brief descriptions of the project's accomplishments, major activities and events, problems, publicity activities, and dissemination…

Exploring Systems Engineering (and the Universe) Through the RadioJOVE telescope

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aditi Raj, Anya

2017-01-01

Amateur projects in radio astronomy are popular methods to engage in what often seems to be an inaccessible field, and pre-made kits are becoming increasingly available to hobbyists and educators. One such kit is the RadioJOVE, which is attractive due to its simplicity, accessibility and its extensive support network and community of users. When coupled with an education in project management, building the RadioJOVE provides a perfect framework to learn about best practices in completing a project. We will primarily discuss the use of the RadioJOVE project to enhance study in project management and systems engineering. We also intend to discuss the importance of amateur projects such as the RadioJOVE in gaining a holistic understanding of radio astronomy and the project’s potential to spark interest in radio astronomy in students of various disciplines.

Bridging the Gap Between NASA Earth Observations and Decision Makers Through the NASA Develop National Program

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Remillard, C. M.; Madden, M.; Favors, J.; Childs-Gleason, L.; Ross, K. W.; Rogers, L.; Ruiz, M. L.

2016-06-01

The NASA DEVELOP National Program bridges the gap between NASA Earth Science and society by building capacity in both participants and partner organizations that collaborate to conduct projects. These rapid feasibility projects highlight the capabilities of satellite and aerial Earth observations. Immersion of decision and policy makers in these feasibility projects increases awareness of the capabilities of Earth observations and contributes to the tools and resources available to support enhanced decision making. This paper will present the DEVELOP model, best practices, and two case studies, the Colombia Ecological Forecasting project and the Miami-Dade County Ecological Forecasting project, that showcase the successful adoption of tools and methods for decision making. Through over 90 projects each year, DEVELOP is always striving for the innovative, practical, and beneficial use of NASA Earth science data.

Increasing Parental Involvement in Speech-Sound Remediation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Roberts, Micah Renee Ferguson

2014-01-01

Speech therapy homework is a key component of a successful speech therapy program, increasing carryover of learned speech sounds. Poor return rate of homework assigned, with a lack of parental involvement, is a problem. The purpose of this project study was to examine what may increase parental participation in speech therapy homework. Guided by…

Simulation of climate change in San Francisco Bay Basins, California: Case studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Flint, Lorraine E.; Flint, Alan L.

2012-01-01

As a result of ongoing changes in climate, hydrologic and ecologic effects are being seen across the western United States. A regional study of how climate change affects water resources and habitats in the San Francisco Bay area relied on historical climate data and future projections of climate, which were downscaled to fine spatial scales for application to a regional water-balance model. Changes in climate, potential evapotranspiration, recharge, runoff, and climatic water deficit were modeled for the Bay Area. In addition, detailed studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains, which are on the northern and southern extremes of the Bay Area, respectively, were carried out in collaboration with local water agencies. Resource managers depend on science-based projections to inform planning exercises that result in competent adaptation to ongoing and future changes in water supply and environmental conditions. Results indicated large spatial variability in climate change and the hydrologic response across the region; although there is warming under all projections, potential change in precipitation by the end of the 21st century differed according to model. Hydrologic models predicted reduced early and late wet season runoff for the end of the century for both wetter and drier future climate projections, which could result in an extended dry season. In fact, summers are projected to be longer and drier in the future than in the past regardless of precipitation trends. While water supply could be subject to increased variability (that is, reduced reliability) due to greater variability in precipitation, water demand is likely to steadily increase because of increased evapotranspiration rates and climatic water deficit during the extended summers. Extended dry season conditions and the potential for drought, combined with unprecedented increases in precipitation, could serve as additional stressors on water quality and habitat. By focusing on the relationship between soil moisture storage and evapotranspiration pressures, climatic water deficit integrates the effects of increasing temperature and varying precipitation on basin conditions. At the fine-scale used for these analyses, this variable is an effective indicator of the areas in the landscape that are the most resilient or vulnerable to projected changes. These analyses have shown that regardless of the direction of precipitation change, climatic water deficit is projected to increase, which implies greater water demand to maintain current agricultural resources or land cover. Fine-scale modeling provides a spatially distributed view of locations in the landscape that could prove to be resilient to climatic changes in contrast to locations where vegetation is currently living on the edge of its present-day bioclimatic distribution and, therefore, is more likely to perish or shift to other dominant species under future warming. This type of modeling and the associated analyses provide a useful means for greater understanding of water and land resources, which can lead to better resource management and planning.

A Statistical Project Control Tool for Engineering Managers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bauch, Garland T.

2001-01-01

This slide presentation reviews the use of a Statistical Project Control Tool (SPCT) for managing engineering projects. A literature review pointed to a definition of project success, (i.e., A project is successful when the cost, schedule, technical performance, and quality satisfy the customer.) The literature review also pointed to project success factors, and traditional project control tools, and performance measures that are detailed in the report. The essential problem is that with resources becoming more limited, and an increasing number or projects, project failure is increasing, there is a limitation of existing methods and systematic methods are required. The objective of the work is to provide a new statistical project control tool for project managers. Graphs using the SPCT method plotting results of 3 successful projects and 3 failed projects are reviewed, with success and failure being defined by the owner.

Projected and Observed Aridity and Climate Change in the East Coast of South India under RCP 4.5.

PubMed

Ramachandran, A; Praveen, Dhanya; Jaganathan, R; Palanivelu, K

2015-01-01

In the purview of global warming, the present study attempts to project changes in climate and quantify the changes in aridity of two coastal districts in south India under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. Projected climate change output generated by RegCM 4.4 model, pertaining to 14 grid points located within the study area, was analyzed and processed for this purpose. The meteorological parameters temperature and precipitations were used to create De Martonne Aridity Index, to assess the spatial distribution of aridity. The original index values ranged from 13.7 to 16.4 mm/°C, characterizing this area as a semidry climate. The outcome from the changed scenario analysis under RCP 4.5 showed that, during the end of the 21st century, the aridity may be increased more as the index values tend to reduce. The increasing trend in the drying phenomenon may be attributed to the rising of mean annual temperatures.

Projected and Observed Aridity and Climate Change in the East Coast of South India under RCP 4.5

PubMed Central

Ramachandran, A.; Praveen, Dhanya; Jaganathan, R.; Palanivelu, K.

2015-01-01

In the purview of global warming, the present study attempts to project changes in climate and quantify the changes in aridity of two coastal districts in south India under the RCP 4.5 trajectory. Projected climate change output generated by RegCM 4.4 model, pertaining to 14 grid points located within the study area, was analyzed and processed for this purpose. The meteorological parameters temperature and precipitations were used to create De Martonne Aridity Index, to assess the spatial distribution of aridity. The original index values ranged from 13.7 to 16.4 mm/°C, characterizing this area as a semidry climate. The outcome from the changed scenario analysis under RCP 4.5 showed that, during the end of the 21st century, the aridity may be increased more as the index values tend to reduce. The increasing trend in the drying phenomenon may be attributed to the rising of mean annual temperatures. PMID:26771002

Trace Fear Conditioning Differentially Modulates Intrinsic Excitability of Medial Prefrontal Cortex-Basolateral Complex of Amygdala Projection Neurons in Infralimbic and Prelimbic Cortices.

PubMed

Song, Chenghui; Ehlers, Vanessa L; Moyer, James R

2015-09-30

Neuronal activity in medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) is critical for the formation of trace fear memory, yet the cellular mechanisms underlying these memories remain unclear. One possibility involves the modulation of intrinsic excitability within mPFC neurons that project to the basolateral complex of amygdala (BLA). The current study used a combination of retrograde labeling and in vitro whole-cell patch-clamp recordings to examine the effect of trace fear conditioning on the intrinsic excitability of layer 5 mPFC-BLA projection neurons in adult rats. Trace fear conditioning significantly enhanced the intrinsic excitability of regular spiking infralimbic (IL) projection neurons, as evidenced by an increase in the number of action potentials after current injection. These changes were also associated with a reduction in spike threshold and an increase in h current. In contrast, trace fear conditioning reduced the excitability of regular spiking prelimbic (PL) projection neurons, through a learning-related decrease of input resistance. Interestingly, the amount of conditioned freezing was (1) positively correlated with excitability of IL-BLA projection neurons after conditioning and (2) negatively correlated with excitability of PL-BLA projection neurons after extinction. Trace fear conditioning also significantly enhanced the excitability of burst spiking PL-BLA projection neurons. In both regions, conditioning-induced plasticity was learning specific (observed in conditioned but not in pseudoconditioned rats), flexible (reversed by extinction), and transient (lasted <10 d). Together, these data suggest that intrinsic plasticity within mPFC-BLA projection neurons occurs in a subregion- and cell-type-specific manner during acquisition, consolidation, and extinction of trace fear conditioning. Significance statement: Frontal lobe-related function is vital for a variety of important behaviors, some of which decline during aging. This study involves a novel combination of electrophysiological recordings from fluorescently labeled mPFC-to-amygdala projection neurons in rats with acquisition and extinction of trace fear conditioning to determine how specific neurons change during behavior. This is the first study to demonstrate that trace fear conditioning significantly alters the intrinsic excitability of mPFC-to-amygdala projection neurons in a subregion- and cell-type-specific manner, which is also transient and reversed by extinction. These data are of broad interest to the neuroscientific community, and the results will inspire additional studies investigating the cellular mechanisms underlying circuit-specific changes within the brain as a result of associative learning and memory. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/3513511-14$15.00/0.

Optimized image acquisition for breast tomosynthesis in projection and reconstruction space.

PubMed

Chawla, Amarpreet S; Lo, Joseph Y; Baker, Jay A; Samei, Ehsan

2009-11-01

Breast tomosynthesis has been an exciting new development in the field of breast imaging. While the diagnostic improvement via tomosynthesis is notable, the full potential of tomosynthesis has not yet been realized. This may be attributed to the dependency of the diagnostic quality of tomosynthesis on multiple variables, each of which needs to be optimized. Those include dose, number of angular projections, and the total angular span of those projections. In this study, the authors investigated the effects of these acquisition parameters on the overall diagnostic image quality of breast tomosynthesis in both the projection and reconstruction space. Five mastectomy specimens were imaged using a prototype tomosynthesis system. 25 angular projections of each specimen were acquired at 6.2 times typical single-view clinical dose level. Images at lower dose levels were then simulated using a noise modification routine. Each projection image was supplemented with 84 simulated 3 mm 3D lesions embedded at the center of 84 nonoverlapping ROIs. The projection images were then reconstructed using a filtered backprojection algorithm at different combinations of acquisition parameters to investigate which of the many possible combinations maximizes the performance. Performance was evaluated in terms of a Laguerre-Gauss channelized Hotelling observer model-based measure of lesion detectability. The analysis was also performed without reconstruction by combining the model results from projection images using Bayesian decision fusion algorithm. The effect of acquisition parameters on projection images and reconstructed slices were then compared to derive an optimization rule for tomosynthesis. The results indicated that projection images yield comparable but higher performance than reconstructed images. Both modes, however, offered similar trends: Performance improved with an increase in the total acquisition dose level and the angular span. Using a constant dose level and angular span, the performance rolled off beyond a certain number of projections, indicating that simply increasing the number of projections in tomosynthesis may not necessarily improve its performance. The best performance for both projection images and tomosynthesis slices was obtained for 15-17 projections spanning an angular are of approximately 45 degrees--the maximum tested in our study, and for an acquisition dose equal to single-view mammography. The optimization framework developed in this framework is applicable to other reconstruction techniques and other multiprojection systems.

[Effects of small hydropower substitute fuel project on forest ecosystem services].

PubMed

Yu, Hai Yan; Zha, Tong Gang; Nie, Li Shui; Lyu, Zhi Yuan

2016-10-01

Based on the Forest Ecosystem Services Assessment Standards (LY/T 1721－2008) issued by the State Forestry Administration, this paper evaluated four key functions of forest ecosystems, i.e., water conservation, soil conservation, carbon fixation and oxygen release, and nutrient accumulation. Focusing on the project area of Majiang County in Guizhou Province, this study provided some quantitative evidence that the implementation of the small hydropower substituting fuel project had positive effects on the values and material quantities of ecosystem service functions. The results showed that the small hydropower substituting fuel project had a significant effect on the increase of forest ecosystem services. Water conservation quantity of Pinus massoniana and Cupressus funebris plantations inside project area was 20662.04 m 3 ·hm -2 ·a -1 , 20.5% higher than outside project area, with soil conservation quantity of 119.1 t·hm -2 ·a -1 , 29.7% higher than outside project area, carbon fixation and oxygen release of 220.49 t·hm -2 ·a -1 , 40.2% higher than outside project area, and forest tree nutrition accumulation of 3.49 t·hm -2 ·a -1 , 48.5% higher than outside project area. Small hydropower substituting fuel project for increasing the quota of forest ecosystem service function value was in the order of carbon fixation and oxygen release function (71400 yuan·hm -2 ·a -1 ) > water conservation function (60100 yuan·hm -2 ·a -1 ) > tree nutrition accumulation function (13800 yuan·hm -2 ·a -1 ) > soil conservation function (8100 yuan·hm -2 ·a -1 ). Small hydropower substituting fuel project played an important role for improving the forest ecological service function value and realizing the sustainable development of forest.

LLL2: an international global level questionnaire on toothbrushing and use of fluoride toothpaste.

PubMed

Llodra, Juan Carlos; Phantumvanit, Prathip; Bourgeois, Denis M; Horn, Virginie

2014-10-01

To determine the evolution of toothbrushing frequency and use of fluoridetoothpaste in the FDI-Unilever partnership Live.Learn.Laugh. phase 2 programme using a self-reported questionnaire. The study was conducted in 23 countries. The key focus of this partnership was to educate people about the benefits of twice-daily brushing with fluoride toothpaste and to support people in adopting this important oral health behaviour. The partnership offers a choice of four project options to the local partnership team of the National Dental Association and local Unilever-operating companies. A self-report questionnaire was used in all participating subjects in local projects to evaluate the brushing frequency, the brushing timing and the use of fluoride toothpaste. After implementation of the project interventions, a clear improvement in the reported frequency of brushing twice a day, regardless of the type of project, was observed. Subjects also increased day and night brushing and the use of fluoride toothpaste. The strategy of using mothers to increase healthy behaviours in oral health achieved the greatest increase in twice-daily toothbrushing, followed by the intervention in schools. © 2014 FDI World Dental Federation.

Engaging students in learning: findings from a study of project-led education

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fernandes, Sandra; Mesquita, Diana; Assunção Flores, Maria; Lima, Rui M.

2014-01-01

This paper reports on findings from a three-year study of project-based learning implemented in the first year of the Industrial Engineering and Management programme, at the University of Minho, Portugal. This particular model was inspired on project-led education (PLE), following Powell and Weenk's [2003. Project-Led Engineering Education. Utrecht: Lemma] work. It aims to analyse students' perceptions of PLE as a learning device and its implications for faculty and students' role in teaching and learning. Data collection took place in two phases through individual surveys and focus groups to students. Findings suggest the importance of PLE as a device to enhance meaningful learning and provide evidence from students that it helps to increase their engagement in learning. Implications of PLE for faculty and students role in teaching and learning will be discussed in the paper.

Modelling the future impacts of climate and land-use change on suspended sediment transport in the River Thames (UK)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bussi, Gianbattista; Dadson, Simon J.; Prudhomme, Christel; Whitehead, Paul G.

2016-11-01

The effects of climate change and variability on river flows have been widely studied. However the impacts of such changes on sediment transport have received comparatively little attention. In part this is because modelling sediment production and transport processes introduces additional uncertainty, but it also results from the fact that, alongside the climate change signal, there have been and are projected to be significant changes in land cover which strongly affect sediment-related processes. Here we assess the impact of a range of climatic variations and land covers on the River Thames catchment (UK). We first calculate a response of the system to climatic stressors (average precipitation, average temperature and increase in extreme precipitation) and land-cover stressors (change in the extent of arable land). To do this we use an ensemble of INCA hydrological and sediment behavioural models. The resulting system response, which reveals the nature of interactions between the driving factors, is then compared with climate projections originating from the UKCP09 assessment (UK Climate Projections 2009) to evaluate the likelihood of the range of projected outcomes. The results show that climate and land cover each exert an individual control on sediment transport. Their effects vary depending on the land use and on the level of projected climate change. The suspended sediment yield of the River Thames in its lowermost reach is expected to change by -4% (-16% to +13%, confidence interval, p = 0.95) under the A1FI emission scenario for the 2030s, although these figures could be substantially altered by an increase in extreme precipitation, which could raise the suspended sediment yield up to an additional +10%. A 70% increase in the extension of the arable land is projected to increase sediment yield by around 12% in the lowland reaches. A 50% reduction is projected to decrease sediment yield by around 13%.

Climate projections and extremes in dynamically downscaled CMIP5 model outputs over the Bengal delta: a quartile based bias-correction approach with new gridded data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hasan, M. Alfi; Islam, A. K. M. Saiful; Akanda, Ali Shafqat

2017-11-01

In the era of global warning, the insight of future climate and their changing extremes is critical for climate-vulnerable regions of the world. In this study, we have conducted a robust assessment of Regional Climate Model (RCM) results in a monsoon-dominated region within the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and the latest Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios. We have applied an advanced bias correction approach to five RCM simulations in order to project future climate and associated extremes over Bangladesh, a critically climate-vulnerable country with a complex monsoon system. We have also generated a new gridded product that performed better in capturing observed climatic extremes than existing products. The bias-correction approach provided a notable improvement in capturing the precipitation extremes as well as mean climate. The majority of projected multi-model RCMs indicate an increase of rainfall, where one model shows contrary results during the 2080s (2071-2100) era. The multi-model mean shows that nighttime temperatures will increase much faster than daytime temperatures and the average annual temperatures are projected to be as hot as present-day summer temperatures. The expected increase of precipitation and temperature over the hilly areas are higher compared to other parts of the country. Overall, the projected extremities of future rainfall are more variable than temperature. According to the majority of the models, the number of the heavy rainy days will increase in future years. The severity of summer-day temperatures will be alarming, especially over hilly regions, where winters are relatively warm. The projected rise of both precipitation and temperature extremes over the intense rainfall-prone northeastern region of the country creates a possibility of devastating flash floods with harmful impacts on agriculture. Moreover, the effect of bias-correction, as presented in probable changes of both bias-corrected and uncorrected extremes, can be considered in future policy making.

Locus coeruleus to basolateral amygdala noradrenergic projections promote anxiety-like behavior

PubMed Central

McCall, Jordan G; Siuda, Edward R; Bhatti, Dionnet L; Lawson, Lamley A; McElligott, Zoe A; Stuber, Garret D; Bruchas, Michael R

2017-01-01

Increased tonic activity of locus coeruleus noradrenergic (LC-NE) neurons induces anxiety-like and aversive behavior. While some information is known about the afferent circuitry that endogenously drives this neural activity and behavior, the downstream receptors and anatomical projections that mediate these acute risk aversive behavioral states via the LC-NE system remain unresolved. Here we use a combination of retrograde tracing, fast-scan cyclic voltammetry, electrophysiology, and in vivo optogenetics with localized pharmacology to identify neural substrates downstream of increased tonic LC-NE activity in mice. We demonstrate that photostimulation of LC-NE fibers in the BLA evokes norepinephrine release in the basolateral amygdala (BLA), alters BLA neuronal activity, conditions aversion, and increases anxiety-like behavior. Additionally, we report that β-adrenergic receptors mediate the anxiety-like phenotype of increased NE release in the BLA. These studies begin to illustrate how the complex efferent system of the LC-NE system selectively mediates behavior through distinct receptor and projection-selective mechanisms. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18247.001 PMID:28708061

Use of an interrupted time-series design to evaluate a cancer screening program.

PubMed

Michielutte, R; Shelton, B; Paskett, E D; Tatum, C M; Velez, R

2000-10-01

An alternative approach to intervention-control designs to evaluate community health education studies is to use a quasi-experimental design in which the outcomes of interest are examined over time in the intervention unit. The Forsyth County Cancer Screening Project (FoCaS) was a comprehensive clinic- and community-based education program to increase screening for cervical cancer and breast cancer among low-income women. This paper reports the use of piecewise regression accounting for potential effects of auto-correlation in the data to evaluate the effectiveness of the project in increasing mammography screening. Data for the evaluation of trends in screening consisted of all mammograms performed during the period of May 1992 through June 1995 at the Reynolds Health Center in Forsyth County, North Carolina. The results suggested that the FoCaS project was effective in increasing mammography screening among women age 40 or older in the study population. Analysis of the trends by age indicated that the program had differential effects on women age 40-49 and 50 or older. The results demonstrate that analyses of the type presented here can either complement or serve as an alternative to more traditional intervention-control analyses.

Rural jail telepsychiatry: a pilot feasibility study.

PubMed

Manfredi, Luisa; Shupe, Joann; Batki, Steven L

2005-10-01

New York State has a large rural population, and many of the jails in rural areas have minimal or no psychiatric services available on site. Cost of transport to off-site psychiatric services and the safety issues related to moving inmates from a secure building may limit inmate access to appropriate psychiatric services. This feasibility study describes a project that provided telepsychiatric consultation to increase access to psychiatric treatment in an underserved rural jail in upstate New York. Subjects were consenting jail inmates who requested or were found to be in need of psychiatric care. The project provided interactive two-way audio-video communication between the psychiatrist located in an urban university medical center and subjects who were incarcerated 182 miles away. During the project period, 15 inmates were assessed and treated in 37 consultations. Subjects were predominantly young white males with anxiety, mood, and substance use disorders. Services were readily accepted by inmates and staff. Telepsychiatric examination and treatment appears to be a feasible method to increase access to mental health care in rural jails. Future advocacy for increased mental health services in rural areas in criminal justice setting is likely to depend on further evidence of favorable cost benefit.

The pore of the leaf cavity of Azolla species: teat cell differentiation and cell wall projections.

PubMed

Veys, P; Lejeune, A; Van Hove, C

2002-02-01

The differentiation of the specialized secretory teat cells of the leaf cavity pore of Azolla species was investigated at the ultrastructural level with emphasis on their peculiar cell wall projections. The results indicated that the projections are formed as soon as the teat cells complete their differentiation and that their production is principally associated with changes in endoplasmic reticulum profiles. The number of projections increases with the teat cell age and is stimulated under salt and P deficiency stresses. Salt stress also promotes their emergence on Azolla species that under normal conditions do not produce projections. Cytochemical tests on different Azolla species showed that the projection composition is almost identical: proteins, acidic polysaccharides, and pectin are always detected. This study revealed that Azolla teat cell projections differ fundamentally from other types of hitherto described cell wall projections that are considered as remnant structures from cell separation. In contrast, in Azolla teat cells projections are actively produced and compounds are excreted by an exocytotic mechanism. The possible role of the projections in the symbiosis of Azolla spp. with Anabaena azollae is discussed.

Space Projects: Improvements Needed in Selecting Future Projects for Private Financing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1990-01-01

The Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and NASA jointly selected seven projects for commercialization to reduce NASA's fiscal year 1990 budget request and to help achieve the goal of increasing private sector involvement in space. However, the efforts to privately finance these seven projects did not increase the commercial sector's involvement in space to the extent desired. The General Accounting Office (GAO) determined that the projects selected were not a fair test of the potential of increasing commercial investment in space at an acceptable cost to the government, primarily because the projects were not properly screened. That is, neither their suitability for commercialization nor the economic consequences of seeking private financing for them were adequately evaluated before selection. Evaluations and market tests done after selection showed that most of the projects were not viable candidates for private financing. GAO concluded that projects should not be removed from NASA's budget for commercial development until after careful screening has been done to determine whether adequate commercial demand exists, development risks are commercially acceptable and private financing is found or judged to be highly likely, and the cost effectiveness of such a decision is acceptable. Premature removal of projects from NASA's budget ultimately can cause project delays and increased costs when unsuccessful commercialization candidates must be returned to the budget. NASA also needs to ensure appropriate comparisons of government and private financing options for future commercialization projects.

Spatial allocation of future landscape patterns for biomass and alleviation of hydrologic impacts of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ssegane, H.; Negri, M. C.

2015-12-01

Current and future demand for food, feed, fiber, and energy require novel approaches to land management, which demands that multifunctional landscapes are created to integrate various ecosystem functions into a sustainable land use. Concurrently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4°C over the next 100 years above the preindustrial baseline, beginning as early as 2016 to 2035 over all seasons in the North America. This climate change is projected to further strain water resources currently stressed by anthropogenic activities. Therefore, placement of bioenergy crops on strategically selected sub-field areas in an agricultural landscape has the potential to increase the environmental and economic sustainability if location and choice of the crops result in minimal disruption of current food production systems and therefore cause minimal indirect land use change. This study identified sub-field marginal areas in an agricultural watershed using soil-based environmental sustainability criteria and a crop productivity index. Future landscape patterns (FLPs) were developed by allocating bioenergy crops (switchgrass: Panicum virgatum or shrub willows: Salix spp.) to these marginal areas (20% of the watershed). SWAT hydrologic model and dynamically downscaled climatic projection were used to asses impact of climate change on extreme flow conditions, total annual production of commodity and bioenergy crops, and water quality under current and future landscape patterns for the mid-21st century (2045-2055) and late 21st century (2085-2095) climatic projections. The frequency of flood and drought conditions was projected to increase while the corresponding durations to decrease. Sediment yields were projected to increase by 85% to 170% while FLPs would mitigate this increase by 26% to 32%.

Analysis of Combined Data from Heterogeneous Study Designs: A Methodological Proposal from the Patient Navigation Research program

PubMed Central

Roetzheim, Richard G.; Freund, Karen M.; Corle, Don K.; Murray, David M.; Snyder, Frederick R.; Kronman, Andrea C.; Jean-Pierre, Pascal; Raich, Peter C.; Holden, Alan E. C.; Darnell, Julie S.; Warren-Mears, Victoria; Patierno, Steven; Design, PNRP; Committee, Analysis

2013-01-01

Background The Patient Navigation Research Program (PNRP) is a cooperative effort of nine research projects, each employing its own unique study design. To evaluate projects such as PNRP, it is desirable to perform a pooled analysis to increase power relative to the individual projects. There is no agreed upon prospective methodology, however, for analyzing combined data arising from different study designs. Expert opinions were thus solicited from members of the PNRP Design and Analysis Committee Purpose To review possible methodologies for analyzing combined data arising from heterogeneous study designs. Methods The Design and Analysis Committee critically reviewed the pros and cons of five potential methods for analyzing combined PNRP project data. Conclusions were based on simple consensus. The five approaches reviewed included: 1) Analyzing and reporting each project separately, 2) Combining data from all projects and performing an individual-level analysis, 3) Pooling data from projects having similar study designs, 4) Analyzing pooled data using a prospective meta analytic technique, 5) Analyzing pooled data utilizing a novel simulated group randomized design. Results Methodologies varied in their ability to incorporate data from all PNRP projects, to appropriately account for differing study designs, and in their impact from differing project sample sizes. Limitations The conclusions reached were based on expert opinion and not derived from actual analyses performed. Conclusions The ability to analyze pooled data arising from differing study designs may provide pertinent information to inform programmatic, budgetary, and policy perspectives. Multi-site community-based research may not lend itself well to the more stringent explanatory and pragmatic standards of a randomized controlled trial design. Given our growing interest in community-based population research, the challenges inherent in the analysis of heterogeneous study design are likely to become more salient. Discussion of the analytic issues faced by the PNRP and the methodological approaches we considered may be of value to other prospective community-based research programs. PMID:22273587

Analysis of combined data from heterogeneous study designs: an applied example from the patient navigation research program.

PubMed

Roetzheim, Richard G; Freund, Karen M; Corle, Don K; Murray, David M; Snyder, Frederick R; Kronman, Andrea C; Jean-Pierre, Pascal; Raich, Peter C; Holden, Alan Ec; Darnell, Julie S; Warren-Mears, Victoria; Patierno, Steven

2012-04-01

The Patient Navigation Research Program (PNRP) is a cooperative effort of nine research projects, with similar clinical criteria but with different study designs. To evaluate projects such as PNRP, it is desirable to perform a pooled analysis to increase power relative to the individual projects. There is no agreed-upon prospective methodology, however, for analyzing combined data arising from different study designs. Expert opinions were thus solicited from the members of the PNRP Design and Analysis Committee. To review possible methodologies for analyzing combined data arising from heterogeneous study designs. The Design and Analysis Committee critically reviewed the pros and cons of five potential methods for analyzing combined PNRP project data. The conclusions were based on simple consensus. The five approaches reviewed included the following: (1) analyzing and reporting each project separately, (2) combining data from all projects and performing an individual-level analysis, (3) pooling data from projects having similar study designs, (4) analyzing pooled data using a prospective meta-analytic technique, and (5) analyzing pooled data utilizing a novel simulated group-randomized design. Methodologies varied in their ability to incorporate data from all PNRP projects, to appropriately account for differing study designs, and to accommodate differing project sample sizes. The conclusions reached were based on expert opinion and not derived from actual analyses performed. The ability to analyze pooled data arising from differing study designs may provide pertinent information to inform programmatic, budgetary, and policy perspectives. Multisite community-based research may not lend itself well to the more stringent explanatory and pragmatic standards of a randomized controlled trial design. Given our growing interest in community-based population research, the challenges inherent in the analysis of heterogeneous study design are likely to become more salient. Discussion of the analytic issues faced by the PNRP and the methodological approaches we considered may be of value to other prospective community-based research programs.

Assessing the value of the Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP) in Everglades restoration: an ecosystem service approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richardson, Leslie A.; Keefe, Kelly; Huber, Christopher C.; Racevskis, Laila; Gregg, Reynolds; Thourot, Scott; Miller, Ian

2014-01-01

This study identifies a full range of ecosystem services that could be affected by a restoration project in the central Everglades and monetizes the economic value of a subset of these services using existing data. Findings suggest that the project will potentially increase many ecosystem services that have considerable economic value to society. The ecosystem services monetized within the scope of this study are a subset of the difference between the future-with the Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP) and the future-without CEPP, and they totaled ~ $1.8 billion USD at a 2.5% discount rate. Findings suggest that the use of ecosystem services in project planning and communications may require acknowledgment of the difficulty of monetizing important services and the limitations associated with using only existing data and models. Results of this study highlight the need for additional valuation efforts in this region, focused on those services that are likely to be impacted by restoration activities but were notably challenging to value in this assessment due to shortages of data.

Uncertainty in future projections of global and regional marine fisheries catches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Reygondeau, G.; Cheung, W. W. L.; Froelicher, T. L.; Stock, C. A.; Jones, M. C.; Sarmiento, J. L.

2016-02-01

Previous studies have projected the global redistribution of potential marine fisheries catches by mid-21st century under climate change, with increases in high latitude regions and pronounced decreases in tropical biomes. However, quantified confidence levels of such projections are not available, rendering it difficult to interpret the associated risk to society. This paper quantifies the confidence of changes in future fish production using a 30-member ensemble simulation of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory ESM2M (representing internal variability of oceanographic conditions), three structural variants of a mechanistic species distribution model (representing uncertainty in fisheries models and different greenhouse gas emission and fishing scenarios (representing scenario uncertainty). We project that total potential catches of 500 exploited fish and invertebrate stocks, that contribute most to regional fisheries catches and their variability, will likely decrease in the 21st century under a `business-as-usual' greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP8.5). Fishing and it's management remains a main factor determining future fish stocks and their catches. Internal variability of projected ocean conditions, including temperature, oxygen level, pH, net primary production and sea ice contributes substantially to the uncertainty of potential catch projections. Regionally, climate-driven decreases in potential catches in tropical oceans and increases in the Arctic polar regions are projected with higher confidence than other regions, while the direction of changes in most mid-latitude (or temperate) regions is uncertain. Under a stringent greenhouse gas mitigation scenario (RCP 2.6), climate change impacts on potential catches may not emerge from their uncertainties. Overall, this study provides a foundation for quantifying risks of climate change impacts on marine fisheries globally and regionally, and how such risk may be altered by policy interventions.

Qualitative evaluation of general practices developing training for a range of health disciplines.

PubMed

Hughes, Lesley A

2014-01-01

This study adopted an interpretative approach, using focus groups and face-to-face interviews to evaluate the development of a five-year pilot project within general practice. The aim of the project is for these practices to offer training to a range of health disciplines from varying academic levels, develop capacity and provide interprofessional education as part of the learning ethos. Eight consortia are involved in the project, which is funded by the workforce and education directorate and the Deanery of the Yorkshire and Humber Strategic Health Authority. The evaluation was undertaken 18 months into the project, to understand the views and experiences of primary care practitioners and university educationalists, in order to identify achievements and barriers to the project's development. The study revealed positive attitudes towards the project, and that steps are being taken to engage in dialogue with universities to increase student numbers, but progress is slow. Early experiences of student nurses taking up placements in the practices reveal incompatible learning outcomes between what is expected for curriculum and learning opportunities within primary care. A common concern is the impact increased students may pose on existing support structures, and that this may compromise student learning. Concern is evident over self-belief and competencies to teach across professions, and the ambiguity over the learning outcomes for IPE and the training required to support this. It is recommended that a systems theory be adopted to provide strategic planning across clinical and education organisations to ensure that structures of communication, leadership and training adequately meet the aims of the project. The paper will be of interest to practitioners in primary care who may be considering expanding services and training, and to educationalists seeking to allocate students to placements in primary care.

Future risk assessment by estimating historical heat wave trends with projected heat accumulation using SimCLIM climate model in Pakistan

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nasim, Wajid; Amin, Asad; Fahad, Shah; Awais, Muhammad; Khan, Naeem; Mubeen, Muhammad; Wahid, Abdul; Turan, Veysel; Rehman, Muhammad Habibur; Ihsan, Muhammad Zahid; Ahmad, Shakeel; Hussain, Sajjad; Mian, Ishaq Ahmad; Khan, Bushra; Jamal, Yousaf

2018-06-01

Climate change has adverse effects at global, regional and local level. Heat wave events have serious contribution for global warming and natural hazards in Pakistan. Historical (1997-2015) heat wave were analyzed over different provinces (Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan) of Pakistan to identify the maximum temperature trend. Heat accumulation in Pakistan were simulated by the General Circulation Model (GCM) combined with 3 GHG (Green House Gases) Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) (RCP-4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) by using SimCLIM model (statistical downscaling model for future trend projections). Heat accumulation was projected for year 2030, 2060, and 2090 for seasonal and annual analysis in Pakistan. Heat accumulation were projected to increase by the baseline year (1995) was represented in percentage change. Projection shows that Sindh and southern Punjab was mostly affected by heat accumulation. This study identified the rising trend of heat wave over the period (1997-2015) for Punjab, Sindh and Baluchistan (provinces of Pakistan), which identified that most of the meteorological stations in Punjab and Sindh are highly prone to heat waves. According to model projection; future trend of annual heat accumulation, in 2030 was increased 17%, 26%, and 32% but for 2060 the trends were reported by 54%, 49%, and 86% for 2090 showed highest upto 62%, 75%, and 140% for RCP-4.5, RCP-6.0, and RCP-8.5, respectively. While seasonal trends of heat accumulation were projected to maximum values for monsoon and followed by pre-monsoon and post monsoon. Heat accumulation in monsoon may affect the agricultural activities in the region under study.

Modeling impacts of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Faramarzi, Monireh; Abbaspour, Karim C.; Ashraf Vaghefi, Saeid; Farzaneh, Mohammad Reza; Zehnder, Alexander J. B.; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Yang, Hong

2013-02-01

SummaryThis study analyzes the impact of climate change on freshwater availability in Africa at the subbasin level for the period of 2020-2040. Future climate projections from five global circulation models (GCMs) under the four IPCC emission scenarios were fed into an existing SWAT hydrological model to project the impact on different components of water resources across the African continent. The GCMs have been downscaled based on observed data of Climate Research Unit to represent local climate conditions at 0.5° grid spatial resolution. The results show that for Africa as a whole, the mean total quantity of water resources is likely to increase. For individual subbasins and countries, variations are substantial. Although uncertainties are high in the simulated results, we found that in many regions/countries, most of the climate scenarios projected the same direction of changes in water resources, suggesting a relatively high confidence in the projections. The assessment of the number of dry days and the frequency of their occurrences suggests an increase in the drought events and their duration in the future. Overall, the dry regions have higher uncertainties than the wet regions in the projected impacts on water resources. This poses additional challenge to the agriculture in dry regions where water shortage is already severe while irrigation is expected to become more important to stabilize and increase food production.

Data collection and storage in long-term ecological and evolutionary studies: The Mongoose 2000 system.

PubMed

Marshall, Harry H; Griffiths, David J; Mwanguhya, Francis; Businge, Robert; Griffiths, Amber G F; Kyabulima, Solomon; Mwesige, Kenneth; Sanderson, Jennifer L; Thompson, Faye J; Vitikainen, Emma I K; Cant, Michael A

2018-01-01

Studying ecological and evolutionary processes in the natural world often requires research projects to follow multiple individuals in the wild over many years. These projects have provided significant advances but may also be hampered by needing to accurately and efficiently collect and store multiple streams of the data from multiple individuals concurrently. The increase in the availability and sophistication of portable computers (smartphones and tablets) and the applications that run on them has the potential to address many of these data collection and storage issues. In this paper we describe the challenges faced by one such long-term, individual-based research project: the Banded Mongoose Research Project in Uganda. We describe a system we have developed called Mongoose 2000 that utilises the potential of apps and portable computers to meet these challenges. We discuss the benefits and limitations of employing such a system in a long-term research project. The app and source code for the Mongoose 2000 system are freely available and we detail how it might be used to aid data collection and storage in other long-term individual-based projects.

The Development of a "Neighborhood in Solidarity" in Switzerland.

PubMed

Zwygart, Marion; Plattet, Alain; Ammor, Sarah

2017-01-01

This article presents a case study based on the "Neighborhood in Solidarity" (NS) methodology to illustrate its application in a locality of 8,000 inhabitants in Switzerland. This specific project is proposed to exemplify the global aim of the NS methodology. That aim is to increase the integration of elderly persons in societies in order to improve their quality of life. The case study demonstrates the enhancement of the capacity of the older people to remain actively engaged in their neighborhood. The article focuses on the creation of an autonomous community of empowered older people who can resolve their own problems after a 5-year project. The construction of the local community is presented throughout the six steps of the methodology: (1) preliminary analysis, (2) diagnostic, (3) construction, (4) project design, (5) project implementation, and (6) empowerment and with three degrees of involvement (community, participative, and integrative involvement). Performance and output indicators, quality indicators, and social determinants of health assess the development of the local project. The impacts of the projects which are illustrated in this specific example motivated this publication to inspire practitioners from other countries.

The Empathy Project: Using a Project-Based Learning Assignment to Increase First-Year College Students' Comfort with Interdisciplinarity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hutchison, Micol

2016-01-01

Empathy and interdisciplinarity are both concepts that are current and relevant--across professions, in research, and in academia. This paper describes a large, interdisciplinary, project-based assignment, the Empathy Project, which allows students to delve into and increase comfort and skill with interdisciplinary thinking and collaborative…

Project K.I.C.K., A School-Based Drug Education Research Project--Peers, Parents and Kids.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rollin, Stephen A.; And Others

1994-01-01

Evaluated first phase of three-phase research project, Project KICK (Kids in Cooperation with Kids) by examining interaction between parent education, positive peer role modeling, and drug education for third graders. Hypothesized that intervention would lead to increase in self-esteem, improved attitudes, increased knowledge regarding drugs, and…

Soil carbon response to projected climate change in the U.S. western corn belt

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

The U.S. Western Corn Belt is projected to experience changes in growing conditions due to climate change over the next 50 to 100 years. Projected changes include an increase in growing season length, an increase in the number of high temperature stress days and warm nights, and an increase in preci...

Time series analysis of hydrological drought under climate change with anthropogenic water management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Satoh, Y.; Yoshimura, K.; Pokhrel, Y. N.; KIM, H.; Oki, T.

2014-12-01

Human society have altered terrestrial hydrological cycles by water management infrastructure, such as reservoirs and weirs for irrigation, in order to enable stable water use against natural variability. On the other hand, anthropogenic climate change is projected to alter the hydro-meteorological cycles, and it is projected that drought frequency and/or intensity will increase in some regions. Thus reliable projection is a critical issue for our society in order to adapt for the change. However, only few studies have investigated the effect of anthropogenic intervention on drought under climate change. This study focuses on hydrological drought, particularly on stream flow, as stream flow is one of the most easy-to-access water resource. HiGW-MAT, a state of arts land surface model capable to reproduce energy and water cycle considering the anthropogenic water management, is used to simulate the historical and future terrestrial water cycles. The model includes reservoir operation, water withdrawal and irrigation process. Five CMIP5 GCM outputs with bias-correction provided by ISI-MIP for 1980-2099 are used to force a set of simulations. Time series data of global hydrological drought for 120 years, with and without human activity, is analyzed in order to estimate the impact of climate change and the adaptation capacity of anthropogenic water management. It is identified that Europe, Central and Eastern Asia, East and West part of USA, Chile, Amazon basin and Congo basin will have large increases of drought more than 90 days. According to uncertainty check particular increases in Central USA and Southern and Eastern South America have high robustness. Dividing global land into 26 regions, we characterized the variation of drought time series for each region. Drought does not show abrupt change and show almost linear increase in many regions. Also, it is found that human activity effectively reduces the increasing rate and suppresses the natural variability under projected warming climate. Nevertheless, the increasing trends are significant under RCP8.5 scenario. In the regions where large increase of drought is projected, drought will depart from historical condition to unexperienced phase in each region until 2050. It alarms human society has to consider countermeasures for the coming change promptly.

Transferring skills in quality collaboratives focused on improving patient logistics.

PubMed

Weggelaar-Jansen, Anne Marie; van Wijngaarden, Jeroen

2018-04-02

A quality improvement collaborative, often used by the Institute for Healthcare Improvement, is used to educate healthcare professionals and improve healthcare at the same time. However, no prior research has been done on the knowledge and skills healthcare professionals need to achieve improvements or the extent to which quality improvement collaboratives help enhance both knowledge and skills. Our research focused on quality improvement collaboratives aiming to improve patient logistics and tried to identify which knowledge and skills are required and to what extent these were enhanced during the QIC. We defined skills important for logistic improvements in a three-phase Delphi study. Based on the Delphi results we made a questionnaire. We surveyed participants in a national quality improvement collaborative to assess the skills rated as 1) important, 2) available and 3) improved during the collaborative. At two sense-making meetings, experts reflected on our findings and hypothesized on how to improve (logistics) collaboratives. The Delphi study found 18 skills relevant for reducing patient access time and 21 for reducing throughput time. All skills retrieved from the Delphi study were scored as 'important' in the survey. Teams especially lacked soft skills connected to project and change management. Analytical skills increased the most, while more reflexive skills needed for the primary goal of the collaborative (reduce access and throughput times) increased modestly. At two sense-making meetings, attendees suggested four improvements for a quality improvement collaborative: 1) shift the focus to project- and change management skills; 2) focus more on knowledge transfer to colleagues; 3) teach participants to adapt the taught principles to their own situations; and 4) foster intra-project reflexive learning to translate gained insights to other projects (inter-project learning). Our findings seem to suggest that Quality collaboratives could benefit if more attention is paid to the transfer of 'soft skills' (e.g. change, project management and communication skills) and reflexive skills (e.g. adjusting logistics principles to specific situations and inter-project translation of experiences).

Assessment of soil organic carbon stocks under future climate and land cover changes in Europe.

PubMed

Yigini, Yusuf; Panagos, Panos

2016-07-01

Soil organic carbon plays an important role in the carbon cycling of terrestrial ecosystems, variations in soil organic carbon stocks are very important for the ecosystem. In this study, a geostatistical model was used for predicting current and future soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks in Europe. The first phase of the study predicts current soil organic carbon content by using stepwise multiple linear regression and ordinary kriging and the second phase of the study projects the soil organic carbon to the near future (2050) by using a set of environmental predictors. We demonstrate here an approach to predict present and future soil organic carbon stocks by using climate, land cover, terrain and soil data and their projections. The covariates were selected for their role in the carbon cycle and their availability for the future model. The regression-kriging as a base model is predicting current SOC stocks in Europe by using a set of covariates and dense SOC measurements coming from LUCAS Soil Database. The base model delivers coefficients for each of the covariates to the future model. The overall model produced soil organic carbon maps which reflect the present and the future predictions (2050) based on climate and land cover projections. The data of the present climate conditions (long-term average (1950-2000)) and the future projections for 2050 were obtained from WorldClim data portal. The future climate projections are the recent climate projections mentioned in the Fifth Assessment IPCC report. These projections were extracted from the global climate models (GCMs) for four representative concentration pathways (RCPs). The results suggest an overall increase in SOC stocks by 2050 in Europe (EU26) under all climate and land cover scenarios, but the extent of the increase varies between the climate model and emissions scenarios. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Agro-climate Projections for a Warming Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lader, R.; Walsh, J. E.; Bhatt, U. S.; Bieniek, P.

2017-12-01

In the context of greenhouse warming, agro-meteorological indices suggest widespread disruption to current food supply chains during the coming decades. Much of the western United States is projected to have more dry days, and the southern states are likely to experience greater plant heat stress. Considering these difficulties, it could become necessary for more northerly locations, including Alaska, to increase agricultural production to support local communities and offset supply shortages. This study employs multiple dynamically downscaled regional climate model simulations from the CMIP5 to investigate projected changes to agro-climate conditions across Alaska. The metric used here, the start-of-field operations index (SFO), identifies the date during which the sum of daily average temperature, starting from January 1st and excluding negative values, exceeds 200 ˚C. Using the current trajectory of greenhouse radiative forcing, RCP 8.5, this study indicates a doubling to 71,960 km2 of Alaska land area that meets the required thermal accumulation for crop production when comparing a historical period (1981-2010) to the future (2071-2100). The SFO shows a correlation coefficient of 0.91 with the independently produced green-up index for Fairbanks from 1981-2010. Among the land areas that currently reach the necessary thermal accumulation, there is a projected increase in growing season length (63-82 days), earlier date of last spring frost (28-48 days), and later date of first autumn frost (24-47 days) across the five USDA Census of Agriculture areas for Alaska. Both an average statewide decrease of annual frost days (71 fewer), and an increase in days with extreme warmth (28 more) are also projected.

Increasing Diversity in STEM through Ka Hikina O Ka Lā Summer Bridge Program for Native Hawaiian Students

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Coopersmith, A.; Cie, D. K.; Calder, S.; Naho`olewa, D.; Rai, B.

2014-12-01

The Advanced Technology Solar Telescope (ATST) Mitigation Initiative and the Kahikina O Ka Lā Program are NSF-funded projects at the University of Hawai`i Maui College. These projects offer instruction and activities intended to increase diversity in STEM careers. Ke Alahaka, the 2014 summer bridge program, was offered to Native Hawaiian high-school students who indicated an interest in STEM areas. Content workshops were offered in Marine Science, Physics, Biotechnology, and Computer Science and Engineering as well as a Hawaiian Studies course designed to provide a cultural context for the STEM instruction. Focus groups and other program assessments indicate that 50% of the students attending the workshops intend to pursue a STEM major during their undergraduate studies.

Understanding ageing in older Australians: The contribution of the Dynamic Analyses to Optimise Ageing (DYNOPTA) project to the evidenced base and policy

PubMed Central

Anstey, Kaarin J; Bielak, Allison AM; Birrell, Carole L; Browning, Colette J; Burns, Richard A; Byles, Julie; Kiley, Kim M; Nepal, Binod; Ross, Lesley A; Steel, David; Windsor, Timothy D

2014-01-01

Aim To describe the Dynamic Analyses to Optimise Ageing (DYNOPTA) project and illustrate its contributions to understanding ageing through innovative methodology, and investigations on outcomes based on the project themes. DYNOPTA provides a platform and technical expertise that may be used to combine other national and international datasets. Method The DYNOPTA project has pooled and harmonized data from nine Australian longitudinal studies to create the largest available longitudinal dataset (N=50652) on ageing in Australia. Results A range of findings have resulted from the study to date, including methodological advances, prevalence rates of disease and disability, and mapping trajectories of ageing with and without increasing morbidity. DYNOPTA also forms the basis of a microsimulation model that will provide projections of future costs of disease and disability for the baby boomer cohort. Conclusion DYNOPTA contributes significantly to the Australian evidence-base on ageing to inform key social and health policy domains. PMID:22032767

A GIS-based approach for the screening assessment of noise and vibration impacts from transit projects.

PubMed

Hamed, Maged; Effat, Waleed

2007-08-01

Urban transportation projects are essential in increasing the efficiency of moving people and goods within a city, and between cities. Environmental impacts from such projects must be evaluated and mitigated, as applicable. Spatial modeling is a valuable tool for quantifying the potential level of environmental consequences within the context of an environmental impact assessment (EIA) study. This paper presents a GIS-based tool for the assessment of airborne-noise and ground-borne vibration from public transit systems, and its application to an actual project. The tool is based on the US Federal Transit Administration's (FTA) approach, and incorporates spatial information, satellite imaging, geostatistical modeling, and software programming. The tool is applied on a case study of initial environmental evaluation of a light rail transit project in an urban city in the Middle East, to evaluate alternative layouts. The tool readily allowed the alternative evaluation and the results were used as input to a multi-criteria analytic framework.

Patterns of crop cover under future climates.

PubMed

Porfirio, Luciana L; Newth, David; Harman, Ian N; Finnigan, John J; Cai, Yiyong

2017-04-01

We study changes in crop cover under future climate and socio-economic projections. This study is not only organised around the global and regional adaptation or vulnerability to climate change but also includes the influence of projected changes in socio-economic, technological and biophysical drivers, especially regional gross domestic product. The climatic data are obtained from simulations of RCP4.5 and 8.5 by four global circulation models/earth system models from 2000 to 2100. We use Random Forest, an empirical statistical model, to project the future crop cover. Our results show that, at the global scale, increases and decreases in crop cover cancel each other out. Crop cover in the Northern Hemisphere is projected to be impacted more by future climate than the in Southern Hemisphere because of the disparity in the warming rate and precipitation patterns between the two Hemispheres. We found that crop cover in temperate regions is projected to decrease more than in tropical regions. We identified regions of concern and opportunities for climate change adaptation and investment.

A generalized network flow model for the multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem with discounted cash flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Miawjane; Yan, Shangyao; Wang, Sin-Siang; Liu, Chiu-Lan

2015-02-01

An effective project schedule is essential for enterprises to increase their efficiency of project execution, to maximize profit, and to minimize wastage of resources. Heuristic algorithms have been developed to efficiently solve the complicated multi-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem with discounted cash flows (MRCPSPDCF) that characterize real problems. However, the solutions obtained in past studies have been approximate and are difficult to evaluate in terms of optimality. In this study, a generalized network flow model, embedded in a time-precedence network, is proposed to formulate the MRCPSPDCF with the payment at activity completion times. Mathematically, the model is formulated as an integer network flow problem with side constraints, which can be efficiently solved for optimality, using existing mathematical programming software. To evaluate the model performance, numerical tests are performed. The test results indicate that the model could be a useful planning tool for project scheduling in the real world.

Greenhouse gas reduction by recovery and utilization of landfill methane and CO{sub 2} technical and market feasibility study, Boului Landfill, Bucharest, Romania. Final report, September 30, 1997--September 19, 1998

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cook, W.J.; Brown, W.R.; Siwajek, L.

1998-09-01

The project is a landfill gas to energy project rated at about 4 megawatts (electric) at startup, increasing to 8 megawatts over time. The project site is Boului Landfill, near Bucharest, Romania. The project improves regional air quality, reduces emission of greenhouse gases, controls and utilizes landfill methane, and supplies electric power to the local grid. The technical and economic feasibility of pre-treating Boului landfill gas with Acrion`s new landfill gas cleanup technology prior to combustion for power production us attractive. Acrion`s gas treatment provides several benefits to the currently structured electric generation project: (1) increase energy density of landfillmore » gas from about 500 Btu/ft{sup 3} to about 750 Btu/ft{sup 3}; (2) remove contaminants from landfill gas to prolong engine life and reduce maintenance;; (3) recover carbon dioxide from landfill gas for Romanian markets; and (4) reduce emission of greenhouse gases methane and carbon dioxide. Greenhouse gas emissions reduction attributable to successful implementation of the landfill gas to electric project, with commercial liquid CO{sub 2} recovery, is estimated to be 53 million metric tons of CO{sub 2} equivalent of its 15 year life.« less

What Works Clearinghouse Quick Review: "Increasing Young Children's Contact with Print during Shared Reading--Longitudinal Effects on Literacy Achievement"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

What Works Clearinghouse, 2012

2012-01-01

The study examined the impact of Project STAR (Sit Together and Read) on literacy skills of preschool students. Project STAR is a program in which teachers read books aloud to their students and use instructional techniques designed to encourage children to pay attention to print within storybooks. Eighty-five preschool classrooms were randomly…

Research and Teaching: Methods for Creating and Evaluating 3D Tactile Images to Teach STEM Courses to the Visually Impaired

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hasper, Eric; Windhorst, Rogier; Hedgpeth, Terri; Van Tuyl, Leanne; Gonzales, Ashleigh; Martinez, Britta; Yu, Hongyu; Farkas, Zolton; Baluch, Debra P.

2015-01-01

Project 3D IMAGINE or 3D Image Arrays to Graphically Implement New Education is a pilot study that researches the effectiveness of incorporating 3D tactile images, which are critical for learning science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, into entry-level lab courses. The focus of this project is to increase the participation and…

An Intervention for Early Mathematical Success: Outcomes from the Hybrid Version of the Building Math Readiness Parents as Partners (MRPP) Project

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kritzer, Karen L.; Pagliaro, Claudia M.

2013-01-01

The Building Math Readiness in Young Deaf/Hard-of-Hearing Children: Parents as Partners (MRPP) Project works with parents to increase the understanding of foundational mathematics concepts in their preschool deaf/hard-of-hearing (d/hh) children in preparation for formal mathematics education. A multiple-case/single-unit case study incorporating…

Efficacy, Outcomes, and Empowerment Evaluation of a School District NET Project, Part II: School and Community Impact. Research Brief.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller-Whitehead, Marie

This study addressed assessing the efficacy and outcomes of a U.S. Department of Agriculture Nutrition Education Training (NET) project designed to increase awareness of health risk and wellness factors for grade 9 students. Although this paper reprises results from a survey of 125 ninth graders about the NET curriculum, the focus of this part of…

Implementation of Project-Based Learning (PjBL) through One Man One Tree to Improve Students' Attitude and Behavior to Support "Sekolah Adiwiyata"

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Risnani; Sumarmi; Astina, I. Komang

2017-01-01

The attitude and behavior of the students of class XI-6 in relation to environmental awareness is very low. It proves that there is no student involvement in environmental conservation. The purpose of this study is to increase students' attitude and behavior related to environmental conservation using "One Man One Tree" Project Based…

Evaluation of give kids a boost: A school-based program to increase booster seat use among urban children in economically disadvantaged areas.

PubMed

Yellman, Merissa A; Rodriguez, Marissa A; Colunga, Maria Isabel; McCoy, Mary A; Stephens-Stidham, Shelli; Brown, L Steven; Istre, Gregory R

2018-05-19

This study evaluated the effectiveness of a series of 1-year multifaceted school-based programs aimed at increasing booster seat use among urban children 4-7 years of age in economically disadvantaged areas. During 4 consecutive school years, 2011-2015, the Give Kids a Boost (GKB) program was implemented in a total of 8 schools with similar demographics in Dallas County. Observational surveys were conducted at project schools before project implementation (P 0 ), 1-4 weeks after the completion of project implementation (P 1 ), and 4-5 months later (P 2 ). Changes in booster seat use for the 3 time periods were compared for the 8 project and 14 comparison schools that received no intervention using a nonrandomized trial process. The intervention included (1) train-the-trainer sessions with teachers and parents; (2) presentations about booster seat safety; (3) tailored communication to parents; (4) distribution of fact sheets/resources; (5) walk-around education; and (6) booster seat inspections. The association between the GKB intervention and proper booster seat use was determined initially using univariate analysis. The association was also estimated using a generalized linear mixed model predicting a binomial outcome (booster seat use) for those aged 4 to 7 years, adjusted for child-level variables (age, sex, race/ethnicity) and car-level variables (vehicle type). The model incorporated the effects of clustering by site and by collection date to account for the possibility of repeated sampling. In the 8 project schools, booster seat use for children 4-7 years of age increased an average of 20.9 percentage points between P 0 and P 1 (P 0 = 4.8%, P 1 = 25.7%; odds ratio [OR] = 6.9; 95% confidence interval [CI], 5.5, 8.7; P < .001) and remained at that level in the P 2 time period (P 2 = 25.7%; P < .001, for P 0 vs. P 2 ) in the univariate analysis. The 14 comparison schools had minimal change in booster seat use. The multivariable model showed that children at the project schools were significantly more likely to be properly restrained in a booster seat after the intervention (OR = 2.7; 95% CI, 2.2, 3.3) compared to the P 0 time period and compared to the comparison schools. Despite study limitations, the GKB program was positively associated with an increase in proper booster seat use for children 4-7 years of age in school settings among diverse populations in economically disadvantaged areas. These increases persisted into the following school year in a majority of the project schools. The GKB model may be a replicable strategy to increase booster seat use among school-age children in similar urban settings.

The PI-Mode of Project Management

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Isaac, Dan

1997-01-01

The PI-Mode is NASA's new approach to project management. It responds to the Agency's new policy to develop scientific missions that deliver the highest quality science for a fixed cost. It also attempts to provide more research opportunities by reducing project development times and increasing the number of launches per year. In order to accomplish this, the Principal Investigator is placed at the helm of the project with full responsibility over all aspects of the mission, including instrument and spacecraft development, as well as mission operations and data analysis. This paper intends to study the PI-Mode to determine the strengths and weaknesses of such a new project management technique. It also presents an analysis of its possible impact on the scientific community and its relations with industry, NASA, and other institutions.

Qualitative evaluation of the Teenage Mothers Project in Uganda: a community-based empowerment intervention for unmarried teenage mothers

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background A large proportion of unmarried teenage mothers in Uganda face physical, psychological, and social problems after pregnancy and childbirth, such as obstetric complications, lack of education, and stigmatisation in their communities. The Teenage Mothers Project (TMP) in Eastern Uganda empowers unmarried teenage mothers to cope with the consequences of early pregnancy and motherhood. Since 2000, 1036 unmarried teenage mothers, their parents, and community leaders participated in economic and social empowerment interventions. The present study explored the changes resulting from the TMP as well as factors that either enabled or inhibited these changes. Methods Semi-structured interviews (N = 23) were conducted with former teenage mothers , community leaders, and project implementers, and lifeline histories were obtained from former teenage mothers (N = 9). Quantitative monitoring data regarding demographic and social characteristics of teenage mother participants (N = 1036) were analysed. Results The findings suggest that, overall, the TMP seems to have contributed to the well-being of unmarried teenage mothers and to a supportive social environment. It appears that the project contributed to supportive community norms towards teenage mothers’ position and future opportunities, increased agency, improved coping with early motherhood and stigma, continued education, and increased income generation by teenage mothers. The study findings also suggest limited change in disapproving community norms regarding out-of-wedlock sex and pregnancy, late active enrolment of teenage mothers in the project (i.e., ten months after delivery of the child), and differences in the extent to which parents provided support. Conclusions It is concluded that strengths of the community-based TMP seem to be its socio-ecological approach, the participatory planning with community leaders and other stakeholders, counselling of parents and unmarried teenage mothers, and the emphasis on education and income generation. The project can improve by earlier active participation of unmarried pregnant adolescents and increased support for parents. PMID:24011141

The Role of Driving Factors in Historical and Projected Carbon Dynamics in Wetland Ecosystems of Alaska

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lyu, Z.; Helene, G.; He, Y.; Zhuang, Q.; McGuire, A. D.; Bennett, A.; Breen, A. L.; Clein, J.; Euskirchen, E. S.; Johnson, K. D.; Kurkowski, T. A.; Pastick, N. J.; Rupp, S. T.; Wylie, B. K.; Zhu, Z.

2017-12-01

Wetlands are important terrestrial ecosystems in Alaska. It is important to understand and assess their role in the regional carbon dynamics in response to historical and projected environmental conditions. A coupled modeling framework that incorporates a fire disturbance model and two biogeochemical models was used to assess the relative influence of changing climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration, and fire regime on the historical and future carbon balance in wetland ecosystems of the four main Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs) of Alaska. Simulations were conducted for the historical period (1950-2009) and future projection period (2010-2099). These simulations estimate that the total carbon (C) storage in wetland ecosystems of Alaska is 5556 Tg C in 2009, with 89% of the C stored in soils. An estimated 175 Tg C was lost during the historical period, which is attributed to greater C lost from the Northwest Boreal LCC than C gained from the other three LCCs. The simulations for the projection period were conducted for six different scenarios driven by climate forcings from two different climate models for each of three CO2 emission scenarios. The mean total carbon storage increased 3.94 Tg C/yr by 2099, with variability among the simulations ranging from 2.02 Tg C/yr to 4.42 Tg C/yr. Across the four LCCs, the largest relative C storage increase occurred in the Arctic and North Pacific LCCs. These increases were primarily driven by increases in net primary production (NPP) that were greater than increases in heterotrophic respiration and fire emissions. Our analysis further indicates that NPP increase was primarily driven by CO2 fertilization ( 5% per 100 ppmv increase) as well as by increases in air temperature ( 1% per ° increase). Increases air temperature were estimated to be the primary cause for a projected 47.7% mean increase in wetlands biogenic CH4 emissions among the simulations ( 15% per ° increase). The combined effects of ecosystem CO2 sequestration and increased CH4 emissions result in a weaker global warming potential (GWP) for wetlands ecosystems in Alaska. Overall, this study estimates that wetland ecosystems of Alaska will transition into a C sink with less contribution to the global warming enhancement.

Efforts of a Kansas foundation to increase physical activity and improve health by funding community trails, 2012.

PubMed

Heinrich, Katie M; Lightner, Joseph; Oestman, Katherine B; Hughey, S Morgan; Kaczynski, Andrew T

2014-11-26

Trails are associated with increased physical activity; however, little is known about the process of building trails by various types of organizations. From 2005 through 2012 the Sunflower Foundation: Health Care for Kansans (Sunflower) funded multiple organizations to construct 70 trails of varying lengths and surfaces in municipalities, schools, and communities across Kansas. The purpose of this study was to assess the process of developing and implementing community trail projects across Kansas with funding from a public foundation. In 2012, we stratified funded organizations by type and conducted proportional random sampling to select 20 key informants from those organizations to participate in structured telephone interviews. Interviews were recorded and transcribed verbatim. Two researchers coded interview transcripts according to issues identified by participants. Issues associated with trail-building identified as important were collaboration among groups, unexpected construction costs, champions for the project, and level of difficulty of construction. Participants indicated that trails facilitated physical activity. Trails were integrated into communities through events such as walking events and other promotional efforts; these efforts were thought to increase trail use. The perceived outcomes of building the trails included providing the community with a physical activity resource, inspiring the community to start additional trail projects, and increasing the physical activity of local residents. Sunflower's funding was instrumental in developing trail projects to provide new physical activity resources across Kansas. Public health practitioners seeking to increase physical activity should seek funding from foundations that focus on health.

Increasing Scientific Literacy at Minority Serving Institutions Nationwide through AMS Professional Development Diversity Workshops

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Brey, J. A.; Geer, I. W.; Mills, E. W.; Nugnes, K. A.; Moses, M. N.

2011-12-01

Increasing students' earth science literacy, especially those at Minority Serving Institutions (MSIs), is a primary goal of the American Meteorological Society (AMS). Through the NSF-supported AMS Weather Studies and AMS Ocean Studies Diversity workshops for Historically Black College and Universities, Hispanic Serving Institutions, Tribal Colleges and Universities, Alaska Native, and Native Hawaiian Serving Institutions, AMS has brought meteorology and oceanography courses to more students. These workshops trained and mentored faculty implementing AMS Weather Studies and AMS Ocean Studies. Of the 145 institutions that have participated in the AMS Weather Studies Diversity Project, reaching over 13,000 students, it was the first meteorology course offered for more than two-thirds of the institutions. As a result of the AMS Ocean Studies Diversity Project, 75 institutions have offered the course to more than 3000 students. About 50 MSIs implemented both the Weather and Ocean courses, improving the Earth Science curriculum on their campuses. With the support of NSF and NASA, and a partnership with Second Nature, the organizing entity behind the American College and University President's Climate Commitment (ACUPCC), the newest professional development workshop, AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project will recruit MSI faculty members through the vast network of Second Nature's more than 670 signatories. These workshops will begin in early summer 2012. An innovative approach to studying climate science, AMS Climate Studies explores the fundamental science of Earth's climate system and addresses the societal impacts relevant to today's students and teachers. The course utilizes resources from respected organizations, such as the IPCC, the US Global Change Research Program, NASA, and NOAA. In addition, faculty and students learn about basic climate modeling through the AMS Conceptual Energy Model. Following the flow of energy in a clear, simplified model from space to Earth and back sets the stage for differentiating between climate, climate variability, and climate change. The AMS Climate Studies Diversity Project will follow the successful models of the Weather and Ocean Diversity Projects. Hands on examples, computer based experiments, round table discussions, lectures, and conversations with scientists in the field and other experienced professors are all important parts of previous workshops, and will be complimented by previous participants' feedback. This presentation will also focus on insight gained from the results of a self-study of the long term, successful AMS DataStreme Project, precollege teacher professional development courses. AMS is excited for this new opportunity of reaching even more MSI faculty and students. The ultimate goal of the AMS is to have a geoscience concentration at MSIs throughout the nation and to greatly increase the number of minority students entering geoscience careers, including science teaching.

Projection of spatial and temporal changes of rainfall in Sarawak of Borneo Island using statistical downscaling of CMIP5 models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sa'adi, Zulfaqar; Shahid, Shamsuddin; Chung, Eun-Sung; Ismail, Tarmizi bin

2017-11-01

This study assesses the possible changes in rainfall patterns of Sarawak in Borneo Island due to climate change through statistical downscaling of General Circulation Models (GCM) projections. Available in-situ observed rainfall data were used to downscale the future rainfall from ensembles of 20 GCMs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) for four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios, namely, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5. Model Output Statistics (MOS) based downscaling models were developed using two data mining approaches known as Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). The SVM was found to downscale all GCMs with normalized mean square error (NMSE) of 48.2-75.2 and skill score (SS) of 0.94-0.98 during validation. The results show that the future projection of the annual rainfalls is increasing and decreasing on the region-based and catchment-based basis due to the influence of the monsoon season affecting the coast of Sarawak. The ensemble mean of GCMs projections reveals the increased and decreased mean of annual precipitations at 33 stations with the rate of 0.1% to 19.6% and one station with the rate of - 7.9% to - 3.1%, respectively under all RCP scenarios. The remaining 15 stations showed inconsistency neither increasing nor decreasing at the rate of - 5.6% to 5.2%, but mainly showing a trend of decreasing rainfall during the first period (2010-2039) followed by increasing rainfall for the period of 2070-2099.

The Green Eating Project: web-based intervention to promote environmentally conscious eating behaviours in US university students.

PubMed

Monroe, Jessica T; Lofgren, Ingrid E; Sartini, Becky L; Greene, Geoffrey W

2015-09-01

To investigate the effectiveness of an online, interactive intervention, referred to as the Green Eating (GE) Project, to motivate university students to adopt GE behaviours. The study was quasi-experimental and integrated into courses for credit/extra credit. Courses were randomly stratified into experimental or non-treatment control. The 5-week intervention consisted of four modules based on different GE topics. Participants completed the GE survey at baseline (experimental, n 241; control, n 367) and post (experimental, n 187; control, n 304). The GE survey has been previously validated and consists of Transtheoretical Model constructs including stage of change (SOC), decisional balance (DB: Pros and Cons) and self-efficacy (SE: School and Home) as well as behaviours for GE. Modules contained basic information regarding each topic and knowledge items to assess content learning. The GE Project took place at a public university in the north-eastern USA. Participants were full-time students between the ages of 18 and 24 years. The GE Project was effective in significantly increasing GE behaviours, DB Pros, SE School and knowledge in experimental compared with control, but did not reduce DB Cons or increase SE Home. Experimental participants were also more likely to be in later SOC for GE at post testing. The GE Project was effective in increasing GE behaviours in university students. Motivating consumers towards adopting GE could assist in potentially mitigating negative consequences of the food system on the environment. Future research could tailor the intervention to participant SOC to further increase the effects or design the modules for other participants.

Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the High Plains Aquifer of Kansas, projections to 2110.

PubMed

Steward, David R; Bruss, Paul J; Yang, Xiaoying; Staggenborg, Scott A; Welch, Stephen M; Apley, Michael D

2013-09-10

Groundwater provides a reliable tap to sustain agricultural production, yet persistent aquifer depletion threatens future sustainability. The High Plains Aquifer supplies 30% of the nation's irrigated groundwater, and the Kansas portion supports the congressional district with the highest market value for agriculture in the nation. We project groundwater declines to assess when the study area might run out of water, and comprehensively forecast the impacts of reduced pumping on corn and cattle production. So far, 30% of the groundwater has been pumped and another 39% will be depleted over the next 50 y given existing trends. Recharge supplies 15% of current pumping and would take an average of 500-1,300 y to completely refill a depleted aquifer. Significant declines in the region's pumping rates will occur over the next 15-20 y given current trends, yet irrigated agricultural production might increase through 2040 because of projected increases in water use efficiencies in corn production. Water use reductions of 20% today would cut agricultural production to the levels of 15-20 y ago, the time of peak agricultural production would extend to the 2070s, and production beyond 2070 would significantly exceed that projected without reduced pumping. Scenarios evaluate incremental reductions of current pumping by 20-80%, the latter rate approaching natural recharge. Findings substantiate that saving more water today would result in increased net production due to projected future increases in crop water use efficiencies. Society has an opportunity now to make changes with tremendous implications for future sustainability and livability.

Tapping unsustainable groundwater stores for agricultural production in the High Plains Aquifer of Kansas, projections to 2110

PubMed Central

Steward, David R.; Bruss, Paul J.; Yang, Xiaoying; Staggenborg, Scott A.; Welch, Stephen M.; Apley, Michael D.

2013-01-01

Groundwater provides a reliable tap to sustain agricultural production, yet persistent aquifer depletion threatens future sustainability. The High Plains Aquifer supplies 30% of the nation’s irrigated groundwater, and the Kansas portion supports the congressional district with the highest market value for agriculture in the nation. We project groundwater declines to assess when the study area might run out of water, and comprehensively forecast the impacts of reduced pumping on corn and cattle production. So far, 30% of the groundwater has been pumped and another 39% will be depleted over the next 50 y given existing trends. Recharge supplies 15% of current pumping and would take an average of 500–1,300 y to completely refill a depleted aquifer. Significant declines in the region’s pumping rates will occur over the next 15–20 y given current trends, yet irrigated agricultural production might increase through 2040 because of projected increases in water use efficiencies in corn production. Water use reductions of 20% today would cut agricultural production to the levels of 15–20 y ago, the time of peak agricultural production would extend to the 2070s, and production beyond 2070 would significantly exceed that projected without reduced pumping. Scenarios evaluate incremental reductions of current pumping by 20–80%, the latter rate approaching natural recharge. Findings substantiate that saving more water today would result in increased net production due to projected future increases in crop water use efficiencies. Society has an opportunity now to make changes with tremendous implications for future sustainability and livability. PMID:23980153

Use of NARCCAP Model Projections to Develop a Future Typical Meteorological Year and Estimate the Impact of a Changing Climate on Building Energy Consumption

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patton, S. L.; Takle, E. S.; Passe, U.; Kalvelage, K.

2013-12-01

Current simulations of building energy consumption use weather input files based on the past thirty years of climate observations. These 20th century climate conditions may be inadequate when designing buildings meant to function well into the 21st century. An alternative is using model projections of climate change to estimate future risk to the built environment. In this study, model-projected changes in climate were combined with existing typical meteorological year data to create future typical meteorological year data. These data were then formatted for use in EnergyPlus simulation software to evaluate their potential impact on commercial building energy consumption. The modeled climate data were taken from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). NARCCAP uses results of global climate models to drive regional climate models, also known as dynamical downscaling. This downscaling gives higher resolution results over specific locations, and the multiple global/regional climate model combinations provide a unique opportunity to quantify the uncertainty of climate change projections and their impacts. Our results show a projected decrease in heating energy consumption and a projected increase in cooling energy consumption for nine locations across the United States for all model combinations. Warmer locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 30% to 45% and an increase in cooling load of around 25% to 35%. Colder locations may expect a decrease in heating load of around 15% to 25% and an increase in cooling load of around 40% to 70%. The change in net energy consumption is determined by the balance between the magnitudes of heating change and cooling change. Net energy consumption is projected to increase by an average of 5% for lower-latitude locations and decrease by an average of 5% for higher-latitude locations. With these projected annual and seasonal changes presenting strong evidence for the unsuitable nature of current building practices holding up under future climate change, we recommend using our methods and results to make modifications and adaptations to existing buildings and to aid in the design of future buildings.

Capital projects: Economic and financial analyses of nine capital projects in Egypt. Technical report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hanrahan, M.; Walker, J.

1994-03-01

Over the period 1977-92, the US Agency for International Development (A.I.D.) funded nine capital projects in Egypt, which collectively increased electric power generation, introduced a modern telephone system in Cairo and Alexandria, and rehabilitated a water and sewer system that served 23 million people. This study presents detailed ex post facto analyses of the projects` economic and financial internal rates of return. The methodology, assumptions, and data are examined and described. Results indicate a mixed performance, with generally low to medium financial and economic rates of return. In large measure, the poor performance was due to the Egyptian Government`s poormore » economic policies.« less

Evidence against a speed limit in multiple-object tracking.

PubMed

Franconeri, S L; Lin, J Y; Pylyshyn, Z W; Fisher, B; Enns, J T

2008-08-01

Everyday tasks often require us to keep track of multiple objects in dynamic scenes. Past studies show that tracking becomes more difficult as objects move faster. In the present study, we show that this trade-off may not be due to increased speed itself but may, instead, be due to the increased crowding that usually accompanies increases in speed. Here, we isolate changes in speed from variations in crowding, by projecting a tracking display either onto a small area at the center of a hemispheric projection dome or onto the entire dome. Use of the larger display increased retinal image size and object speed by a factor of 4 but did not increase interobject crowding. Results showed that tracking accuracy was equally good in the large-display condition, even when the objects traveled far into the visual periphery. Accuracy was also not reduced when we tested object speeds that limited performance in the small-display condition. These results, along with a reinterpretation of past studies, suggest that we might be able to track multiple moving objects as fast as we can a single moving object, once the effect of object crowding is eliminated.

Definitional-mission report: I-shaped power-interconnection study in Thailand. Export trade information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Shrivastava, V.K.; Sandell, D.H.

The Government of Thailand is implementing a Southern Seaboard Development Project. The developing of the project will increase demand for all utility and infrastructure systems and services. The distribution of electric power in the new area falls within the responsibility of the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA). The U.S. Trade and Development Program (TDP) funded a Definitional Mission to evaluate the prospects of TDP funding a feasibility study for an I-Shaped power interconnection study for supplying electricity to the 15 provinces in Southern Thailand. The mission concluded that TDP should provide a grant to PEA to select a U.S. firm tomore » carry out the proposed I-Shaped Interconnection study for power distribution in southern Thailand. The overall potential for exports resulting from the project is conservatively estimated at $120 million, not including any follow-on work and spare parts inventory, typical of such projects. TDP's program in Thailand has enjoyed enviable success in exports and TDP's support of the proposed feasibility study will clearly maintain and very likely add to that momentum.« less

Projected prevalence of US adults with self-reported doctor-diagnosed arthritis, 2005 to 2050.

PubMed

Fontaine, Kevin R; Haaz, Steffany; Heo, Moonseong

2007-05-01

Using population-based survey data from the 2003 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS), we estimated the population prevalence of self-reported, doctor-diagnosed arthritis in the US from 2005 to 2050. Projected arthritis-prevalence data were estimated in 5-year increments along sex- and age-specific categories by multiplying the 2003 BRFSS arthritis prevalence data by the sex-stratified US Census projections. During this 45-year period, we estimate that the total number of US adults aged 20 years or older with arthritis will increase from 60 million to 96 million, a 1.6-fold increase. The increase is projected to be greater in those aged 65 years or older (a 2.3-fold increase) than for those aged 20 to 65 (a 1.3-fold increase). Given increases in the prevalence of known arthritis risk factors (e.g., obesity, Hispanic origin) our projections might underestimate the prevalence of arthritis in the coming years.

Is hemiplegic cerebral palsy equivalent to amblyopia of the corticospinal system?

PubMed

Eyre, Janet A; Smith, Martin; Dabydeen, Lyvia; Clowry, Gavin J; Petacchi, Eliza; Battini, Roberta; Guzzetta, Andrea; Cioni, Giovanni

2007-11-01

Subjects with severe hemiplegic cerebral palsy have increased ipsilateral corticospinal projections from their noninfarcted cortex. We investigated whether their severe impairment might, in part, be caused by activity-dependent, competitive displacement of surviving contralateral corticospinal projections from the affected cortex by more active ipsilateral corticospinal projections from the nonaffected cortex, thereby compounding the impairment. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) characterized corticospinal tract development from each hemisphere over the first 2 years in 32 healthy children, 14 children with unilateral stroke, and 25 with bilateral lesions. Magnetic resonance imaging and anatomic studies compared corticospinal tract growth in 13 patients with perinatal stroke with 46 healthy subjects. Infants with unilateral lesions initially had responses after TMS of the affected cortex, which became progressively more abnormal, and seven were eventually lost. There was associated hypertrophy of the ipsilateral corticospinal axons projecting from the noninfarcted cortex. Magnetic resonance imaging and anatomic studies demonstrated hypertrophy of the corticospinal tract from the noninfarcted hemisphere. TMS findings soon after the stroke did not predict impairment; subsequent loss of responses and hypertrophy of ipsilateral corticospinal axons from the noninfarcted cortex predicted severe impairment at 2 years. Infants with bilateral lesions maintained responses to TMS from both hemispheres with a normal pattern of development. Rather than representing "reparative plasticity," increased ipsilateral projections from the noninfarcted cortex compound disability by competitively displacing surviving contralateral corticospinal projections from the infarcted cortex. This may provide a pathophysiological explanation for why signs of hemiplegic cerebral palsy appear late and progress over the first 2 years of life.

Systematic impact assessment on inter-basin water transfer projects of the Hanjiang River Basin in China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Yanlai; Guo, Shenglian; Hong, Xingjun; Chang, Fi-John

2017-10-01

China's inter-basin water transfer projects have gained increasing attention in recent years. This study proposes an intelligent water allocation methodology for establishing optimal inter-basin water allocation schemes and assessing the impacts of water transfer projects on water-demanding sectors in the Hanjiang River Basin of China. We first analyze water demands for water allocation purpose, and then search optimal water allocation strategies for maximizing the water supply to water-demanding sectors and mitigating the negative impacts by using the Standard Genetic Algorithm (SGA) and Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (AGA), respectively. Lastly, the performance indexes of the water supply system are evaluated under different scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects. The results indicate that: the AGA with adaptive crossover and mutation operators could increase the average annual water transfer from the Hanjiang River by 0.79 billion m3 (8.8%), the average annual water transfer from the Changjiang River by 0.18 billion m3 (6.5%), and the average annual hydropower generation by 0.49 billion kW h (5.4%) as well as reduce the average annual unmet water demand by 0.40 billion m3 (9.7%), as compared with the those of the SGA. We demonstrate that the proposed intelligent water allocation schemes can significantly mitigate the negative impacts of inter-basin water transfer projects on the reliability, vulnerability and resilience of water supply to the demanding sectors in water-supplying basins. This study has a direct bearing on more intelligent and effectual water allocation management under various scenarios of inter-basin water transfer projects.

2015 American College of Rheumatology Workforce Study: Supply and Demand Projections of Adult Rheumatology Workforce, 2015-2030.

PubMed

Battafarano, Daniel F; Ditmyer, Marcia; Bolster, Marcy B; Fitzgerald, John D; Deal, Chad; Bass, Ann R; Molina, Rodolfo; Erickson, Alan R; Hausmann, Jonathan S; Klein-Gitelman, Marisa; Imundo, Lisa F; Smith, Benjamin J; Jones, Karla; Greene, Kamilah; Monrad, Seetha U

2018-04-01

To describe the character and composition of the 2015 US adult rheumatology workforce, evaluate workforce trends, and project supply and demand for clinical rheumatology care for 2015-2030. The 2015 Workforce Study of Rheumatology Specialists in the US used primary and secondary data sources to estimate the baseline adult rheumatology workforce and determine demographic and geographic factors relevant to workforce modeling. Supply and demand was projected through 2030, utilizing data-driven estimations regarding the proportion and clinical full-time equivalent (FTE) of academic versus nonacademic practitioners. The 2015 adult workforce (physicians, nurse practitioners, and physician assistants) was estimated to be 6,013 providers (5,415 clinical FTE). At baseline, the estimated demand exceeded the supply of clinical FTE by 700 (12.9%). By 2030, the supply of rheumatology clinical providers is projected to fall to 4,882 providers, or 4,051 clinical FTE (a 25.2% decrease in supply from 2015 baseline levels). Demand in 2030 is projected to exceed supply by 4,133 clinical FTE (102%). The adult rheumatology workforce projections reflect a major demographic and geographic shift that will significantly impact the supply of the future workforce by 2030. These shifts include baby-boomer retirements, a millennial predominance, and an increase of female and part-time providers, in parallel with an increased demand for adult rheumatology care due to the growing and aging US population. Regional and innovative strategies will be necessary to manage access to care and reduce barriers to care for rheumatology patients. © 2018, American College of Rheumatology.

Climate Change, Tropospheric Ozone and Particulate Matter, and Health Impacts

PubMed Central

Ebi, Kristie L.; McGregor, Glenn

2008-01-01

Objective Because the state of the atmosphere determines the development, transport, dispersion, and deposition of air pollutants, there is concern that climate change could affect morbidity and mortality associated with elevated concentrations of these gases and fine particles. We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health. Data sources We review studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and studies projecting the impacts of these changes on morbidity and mortality. Data synthesis Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty include the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given these uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, which would increase morbidity and mortality. Few projections are available for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, primarily because few studies have been conducted. Conclusions Additional research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution–related health impacts. If improved models continue to project higher ozone concentrations with climate change, then reducing greenhouse gas emissions would enhance the health of current and future generations. PMID:19057695

Climate change and vector-borne diseases: an economic impact analysis of malaria in Africa.

PubMed

Egbendewe-Mondzozo, Aklesso; Musumba, Mark; McCarl, Bruce A; Wu, Ximing

2011-03-01

A semi-parametric econometric model is used to study the relationship between malaria cases and climatic factors in 25 African countries. Results show that a marginal change in temperature and precipitation levels would lead to a significant change in the number of malaria cases for most countries by the end of the century. Consistent with the existing biophysical malaria model results, the projected effects of climate change are mixed. Our model projects that some countries will see an increase in malaria cases but others will see a decrease. We estimate projected malaria inpatient and outpatient treatment costs as a proportion of annual 2000 health expenditures per 1,000 people. We found that even under minimal climate change scenario, some countries may see their inpatient treatment cost of malaria increase more than 20%.

Use of the VIP-Man model to calculate energy imparted and effective dose for x-ray examinations.

PubMed

Winslow, Mark; Huda, Walter; Xu, X George; Chao, T C; Shi, C Y; Ogden, Kent M; Scalzetti, Ernest M

2004-02-01

A male human tomographic model was used to calculate values of energy imparted (epsilon) and effective dose (E) for monoenergetic photons (30-150 keV) in radiographic examinations. Energy deposition in the organs and tissues of the human phantom were obtained using Monte Carlo simulations. Values of E/epsilon were obtained for three common projections [anterior-posterior (AP), posterior-anterior (PA), and lateral (LAT)] of the head, cervical spine, chest, and abdomen, respectively. For head radiographs, all three projections yielded similar E/epsilon values. At 30 keV, the value of E/epsilon was approximately 1.6 mSv J(-1), which is increased to approximately 7 mSv J(-1) for 150 keV photons. The AP cervical spine was the only projection investigated where the value of E/epsilon decreased with increasing photon energy. Above 70 keV, cervical spine E/epsilon values showed little energy dependence and ranged between approximately 8.5 mSv J(-1) for PA projections and approximately 17 mSv J(-1) for AP projections. The values of E/epsilon for AP chest examinations showed very little variation with photon energy, and had values of approximately 23 mSv J(-1). Values of E/epsilon for PA and LAT chest projections were substantially lower than the AP projections and increased with increasing photon energy. For abdominal radiographs, differences between the PA and LAT projections were very small. All abdomen projections showed an increase in the E/epsilon ratio with increasing photon energy, and reached a maximum value of approximately 13.5 mSv J(-1) for AP projections, and approximately 9.5 mSv J(-1) for PA/lateral projections. These monoenergetic E/epsilon values can generate values of E/epsilon for any x-ray spectrum, and can be used to convert values of energy imparted into effective dose for patients undergoing common head and body radiological examinations.

Exploring consensus in 21st century projections of climatically suitable areas for African vertebrates

PubMed Central

Garcia, Raquel A; Burgess, Neil D; Cabeza, Mar; Rahbek, Carsten; Araújo, Miguel B

2012-01-01

Africa is predicted to be highly vulnerable to 21st century climatic changes. Assessing the impacts of these changes on Africa's biodiversity is, however, plagued by uncertainties, and markedly different results can be obtained from alternative bioclimatic envelope models or future climate projections. Using an ensemble forecasting framework, we examine projections of future shifts in climatic suitability, and their methodological uncertainties, for over 2500 species of mammals, birds, amphibians and snakes in sub-Saharan Africa. To summarize a priori the variability in the ensemble of 17 general circulation models, we introduce a consensus methodology that combines co-varying models. Thus, we quantify and map the relative contribution to uncertainty of seven bioclimatic envelope models, three multi-model climate projections and three emissions scenarios, and explore the resulting variability in species turnover estimates. We show that bioclimatic envelope models contribute most to variability, particularly in projected novel climatic conditions over Sahelian and southern Saharan Africa. To summarize agreements among projections from the bioclimatic envelope models we compare five consensus methodologies, which generally increase or retain projection accuracy and provide consistent estimates of species turnover. Variability from emissions scenarios increases towards late-century and affects southern regions of high species turnover centred in arid Namibia. Twofold differences in median species turnover across the study area emerge among alternative climate projections and emissions scenarios. Our ensemble of projections underscores the potential bias when using a single algorithm or climate projection for Africa, and provides a cautious first approximation of the potential exposure of sub-Saharan African vertebrates to climatic changes. The future use and further development of bioclimatic envelope modelling will hinge on the interpretation of results in the light of methodological as well as biological uncertainties. Here, we provide a framework to address methodological uncertainties and contextualize results.

Brain-mapping projects using the common marmoset.

PubMed

Okano, Hideyuki; Mitra, Partha

2015-04-01

Globally, there is an increasing interest in brain-mapping projects, including the Brain Research through Advancing Innovative Neurotechnologies (BRAIN) Initiative project in the USA, the Human Brain Project (HBP) in Europe, and the Brain Mapping by Integrated Neurotechnologies for Disease Studies (Brain/MINDS) project in Japan. These projects aim to map the structure and function of neuronal circuits to ultimately understand the vast complexity of the human brain. Brain/MINDS is focused on structural and functional mapping of the common marmoset (Callithrix jacchus) brain. This non-human primate has numerous advantages for brain mapping, including a well-developed frontal cortex and a compact brain size, as well as the availability of transgenic technologies. In the present review article, we discuss strategies for structural and functional mapping of the marmoset brain and the relation of the common marmoset to other animals models. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Investigating the Linkage between Intrinsic Motivation and Project Team Satisfaction in Undergraduate Agricultural Leadership Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lamm, Kevan W.; Carter, Hannah S.; Melendez, Marcus W.

2014-01-01

Organizations have increased the amount of work that is completed by project teams over the past several decades. This trend is projected to continue into the foreseeable future. In response to this trend, the academic community has increased the number of project team based learning experiences for students in classes. The challenge has been that…

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stambaugh, Michael C.; Guyette, Richard P.; Stroh, Esther D.; Struckhoff, Matthew A.; Whittier, Joanna B.

2018-01-01

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

Projections of rising heat stress over the western Maritime Continent from dynamically downscaled climate simulations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Im, Eun-Soon; Kang, Suchul; Eltahir, Elfatih A. B.

2018-06-01

This study assesses the future changes in heat stress in response to different emission scenarios over the western Maritime Continent. To better resolve the region-specific changes and to enhance the performance in simulating extreme events, the MIT Regional Climate Model with a 12-km horizontal resolution is used for the dynamical downscaling of three carefully selected CMIP5 global projections forced by two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios. Daily maximum wet-bulb temperature (TWmax), which includes the effect of humidity, is examined to describe heat stress as regulated by future changes in temperature and humidity. An ensemble of projections reveals robust pattern in which a large increase in temperature is accompanied by a reduction in relative humidity but a significant increase in wet-bulb temperature. This increase in TWmax is relatively smaller over flat and coastal regions than that over mountainous region. However, the flat and coastal regions characterized by warm and humid present-day climate will be at risk even under modest increase in TWmax. The regional extent exposed to higher TWmax and the number of days on which TWmax exceeds its threshold value are projected to be much higher in RCP8.5 scenario than those in RCP4.5 scenario, thus highlighting the importance of controlling greenhouse gas emissions to reduce the adverse impacts on human health and heat-related mortality.

Hydro-climatic Effects of Present and Future Land Cover / Land Use Changes in the Upper Mesopotamia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yılmaz, Yeliz; Lütfi Şen, Ömer; Utku Turunçoǧlu, Ufuk

2016-04-01

The Southeastern Anatolia Project (SAP) of Turkey, one of the largest regional development projects in the world, aims to irrigate the vast semi-arid plains of the upper Mesopotamia by transferring water from the Euphrates and Tigris rivers. At the current realization level of irrigation projects (about 25%), it has already caused extensive land cover / land use (LCLU) changes in the region. Thus, the aim of this study is to assess the resultant hydro-climatic changes using a state-of-the-art regional climate model (RegCM4). The simulations include a reference one with a LCLU map reflecting the pre-SAP conditions, and two sensitivity simulations incorporating the current and future LCLU maps for the region, the latter being the situation upon the completion of the project. The model is driven with the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis for the 20-year period between 1991 and 2010. The sensitivity experiment involves two nesting domains with 48 and 12 km resolutions, respectively, the latter being downscaled to 3 km resolution with the subgrid feature of the land surface model. The performance analysis of the model yields that it is able to reproduce the temperature and precipitation fields fairly well. The preliminary results indicate that, on annual basis, the LCLU change in the region will decrease the surface temperatures by about 0.4-0.8 °C and will increase specific humidity by about 8-17%. Furthermore, these changes will lead to 3-7% precipitation increase in the region, and much of this increase will occur in spring. The evapotranspiration increase estimated by the model amounts to 51-114% over the pre-SAP conditions. Given the fact that the water of the region is primarily partitioned between energy production, irrigation and release for the downstream countries, Syria and Iraq, the dramatic increase in water loss through evapotranspiration has potential to alter the water management practices and policy measures in the larger region. Acknowledgment This study has been supported by TUBITAK (The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) under project number 114Y114.

Hydrologic restoration in a dynamic subtropical mangrove-to-marsh ecotone

USGS Publications Warehouse

Howard, Rebecca J.; Day, Richard H.; Krauss, Ken W.; From, Andrew S.; Allain, Larry K.; Cormier, Nicole

2017-01-01

Extensive hydrologic modifications in coastal regions across the world have occurred to support infrastructure development, altering the function of many coastal wetlands. Wetland restoration success is dependent on the existence of hydrologic regimes that support development of appropriate soils and the growth and persistence of wetland vegetation. In Florida, United States, the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP) seeks to restore, protect, and preserve water resources of the greater Everglades region. Herein we describe vegetation dynamics in a mangrove-to-marsh ecotone within the impact area of a CERP hydrologic restoration project currently under development. Vegetation communities are also described for a similar area outside the project area. We found that vegetation shifts within the impact area occurred over a 7-year period; cover of herbaceous species varied by location, and an 88% increase in the total number of mangrove seedlings was documented. We attribute these shifts to the existing modified hydrologic regime, which is characterized by a low volume of freshwater sheet flow compared with historical conditions (i.e. before modification), as well as increased tidal influence. We also identified a significant trend of decreasing soil surface elevation at the impact area. The CERP restoration project is designed to increase freshwater sheet flow to the impact area. Information from our study characterizing existing vegetation dynamics prior to implementation of the restoration project is required to allow documentation of long-term project effects on plant community composition and structure within a framework of background variation, thereby allowing assessment of the project's success in restoring critical ecosystem functions.

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

Conjunctive management of surface and groundwater resources under projected future climate change scenarios

DOE PAGES

Mani, Amir; Tsai, Frank T. -C.; Kao, Shih-Chieh; ...

2016-06-16

Our study introduces a mixed integer linear fractional programming (MILFP) method to optimize conjunctive use of future surface water and groundwater resources under projected climate change scenarios. The conjunctive management model maximizes the ratio of groundwater usage to reservoir water usage. Future inflows to the reservoirs were estimated from the future runoffs projected through hydroclimate modeling considering the Variable Infiltration Capacity model, and 11 sets of downscaled Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 global climate model projections. Bayesian model averaging was adopted to quantify uncertainty in future runoff projections and reservoir inflow projections due to uncertain future climate projections. Optimizedmore » conjunctive management solutions were investigated for a water supply network in northern Louisiana which includes the Sparta aquifer. Runoff projections under climate change scenarios indicate that runoff will likely decrease in winter and increase in other seasons. Ultimately, results from the developed conjunctive management model with MILFP indicate that the future reservoir water, even at 2.5% low inflow cumulative probability level, could counterbalance groundwater pumping reduction to satisfy demands while improving the Sparta aquifer through conditional groundwater head constraint.« less

CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swain, Sharmistha; Hayhoe, Katharine

2015-05-01

Climate change is expected to alter the mean and variability of future spring and summer drought and wet conditions during the twenty-first century across North America, as characterized by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 simulations, statistically significant increases are projected in mean spring SPI over the northern part of the continent, and drier conditions across the southwest. Dry conditions in summer also increase, particularly throughout the central Great Plains. By end of century, greater changes are projected under a higher radiative forcing scenario (RCP 8.5) as compared to moderate (RCP 6.0) and lower (RCP 4.5). Analysis of projected changes standardized to a range of global warming thresholds from +1 to +4 °C reveals a consistent spatial pattern of wetter conditions in the northern and drier conditions in the southwestern part of the continent in spring that intensifies under increased warming, suggesting that the magnitude of projected changes in wetness and drought may scale with global temperature. For many regions, SPI interannual variability is also projected to increase (even for regions that are projected to become drier), indicating that climate may become more extreme under greater warming, with increased frequency of both extreme dry and wet seasons. Quantifying the direction and magnitude of projected future trends from global warming is key to informing strategies to mitigate human influence on climate and help natural and managed resources adapt.

The impact of a reproductive health franchise on client satisfaction in rural Nepal.

PubMed

Agha, Sohail; Karim, Ali Mehryar; Balal, Asma; Sosler, Steve

2007-09-01

This study evaluates the impact of a nurse and paramedic reproductive health franchise in rural Nepal on client satisfaction and utilization of services. A quasi-experimental study design, with baseline and follow-up measurements on nonequivalent control groups, was used to assess the effects of the intervention. The study collected data from exit interviews with male and female clients at clinics and from household interviews with married women. Our assessment covers the project's performance for about a year of actual implementation. Client satisfaction with the quality of services increased across a range of indicators at intervention clinics but not at control clinics. Overall satisfaction with services also increased only at intervention clinics but not at control clinics. Consistent with these changes, loyalty increased among clients of franchised clinics. The analysis showed a positive relationship between client satisfaction and loyalty. Although the project's implementation was examined over a relatively short period of time, there appears to have been a net positive effect of the intervention on obtaining family planning products from medical stores/pharmacies. The study shows that franchising reproductive health services increases a provider's interest in delivering better quality services in rural areas of a developing country.

Detection, causes and projection of climate change over China: An overview of recent progress

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ding, Yihui; Ren, Guoyu; Zhao, Zongci; Xu, Ying; Luo, Yong; Li, Qiaoping; Zhang, Jin

2007-11-01

This article summarizes the main results and findings of studies conducted by Chinese scientists in the past five years. It is shown that observed climate change in China bears a strong similarity with the global average. The country-averaged annual mean surface air temperature has increased by 1.1°C over the past 50 years and 0.5-0.8°C over the past 100 years, slightly higher than the global temperature increase for the same periods. Northern China and winter have experienced the greatest increases in surface air temperature. Although no significant trend has been found in country-averaged annual precipitation, interdecadal variability and obvious trends on regional scales are detectable, with northwestern China and the mid and lower Yangtze River basin having undergone an obvious increase, and North China a severe drought. Some analyses show that frequency and magnitude of extreme weather and climate events have also undergone significant changes in the past 50 years or so. Studies of the causes of regional climate change through the use of climate models and consideration of various forcings, show that the warming of the last 50 years could possibly be attributed to an increased atmospheric concentration of greenhouse gases, while the temperature change of the first half of the 20th century may be due to solar activity, volcanic eruptions and sea surface temperature change. A significant decline in sunshine duration and solar radiation at the surface in eastern China has been attributed to the increased emission of pollutants. Projections of future climate by models of the NCC (National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration) and the IAP (Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences), as well as 40 models developed overseas, indicate a potential significant warming in China in the 21st century, with the largest warming set to occur in winter months and in northern China. Under varied emission scenarios, the country-averaged annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 1.5-2.1°C by 2020, 2.3-3.3°C by 2050, and by 3.9-6.0°C by 2100, in comparison to the 30-year average of 1961-1990. Most models project a 10%-12% increase in annual precipitation in China by 2100, with the trend being particularly evident in Northeast and Northwest China, but with parts of central China probably undergoing a drying trend. Large uncertainty exists in the projection of precipitation, and further studies are needed. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change will probably lead to a weaker winter monsoon and a stronger summer monsoon in eastern Asia.

Information prescriptions, 1930-2013: an international history and comprehensive review.

PubMed

McKnight, Michelynn

2014-10-01

Recently, government agencies in several countries have promoted information prescription programs to increase patients' understanding of their conditions. The practice has a long history and many publications, but no comprehensive literature reviews such as this. Using a variety of high-precision and high-recall strategies, the researcher searched two dozen online bibliographic databases, citation databases, and repositories, as well as many print sources, to identify and retrieve documents for review. Of these documents, ninety relevant English-language case reports, research reports, and reviews published from 1930-2013 met the study criteria. Early to mid-twentieth century reports covered long-standing practices and used no rigorous research methods. The literature since the mid-1990s reports on short-term trial projects, especially of government-sponsored programs in the United States and United Kingdom. Although the concept of information prescription has been in the literature and practiced for decades, no long-term research studies were found. Most of the literature is anecdotal concerning small pilot projects. The reports investigate physician, patient, and librarian satisfaction but not changes in patient knowledge or behavior. Many twenty-first century projects emphasize materials and projects from specific government agencies and commercial enterprises. While the practice is commonly believed to be a good idea and there are many publications on the subject, few studies provide any evidence of the efficacy of information prescriptions for increased patient knowledge. Well-designed and executed large or long-term studies might produce needed evidence for professional practice.

Estimation of mean glandular dose for patients who undergo mammography and studying the factors affecting it

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barzanje, Sana L. N. H.; Harki, Edrees M. Tahir Nury

2017-09-01

The objective of this study was to determine mean glandular dose (MGD) during diagnostic mammography. This study was done in two hospitals in Hawler city in Kurdistan -region /Iraq, the exposure parameters kVp and mAs was recorded for 40 patients under go mammography. The MGD estimated by multiplied ESD with normalized glandular dose (Dn). The ESD measured indirectly by measuring output radiation mGy/mAs by using PalmRAD 907 as a suitable detector (Gigger detector).the results; shown that the mean and its standard deviation of MGD for Screen Film Mammography and Digital Mammography are (0.95±0.18)mGy and (0.99±0.26)mGy, respectively. And there is a significant difference between MGD for Screen Film Mammography and Digital Mammography views (p≤0. 05). Also the mean value and its standard deviation of MGD for screen film mammography is (0.96±0.21) for CC projection and (1.03±0.3) mGy for MLO projection, but mean value and its standard deviation evaluated of MGD for digital mammography is (0.92±0.17) mGy for CC projection and (0.98±0.2) mGy for MLO projection. As well as, the effect of kVp and mAs in MGD were studied, shows that in general as kVp and mAs increased the MGD increased accordingly in both of mammography systems.

Development of Sustainability Assessment Framework in Hydropower sector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Soliha Sahimi, Nur; Turan, Faiz Mohd; Johan, Kartina

2017-08-01

Nowadays, Malaysian demand in energy sector was drastically increase due to technological developments. Since, hydropower is one of potential renewable energy source in Malaysia. The largest electricity utility company, Tenaga Nasional Berhad was provide an electricity to more than seven million people via independent suppliers in peninsular Malaysia and Sabah by intended a potential sustainable hydropower system. In order to increasingly the power capacity from current use, 1882 MW to more than 3000 MW by years 2020. In this study, the environmental issues and also the penalty to the responsible company especially on Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) towards their project or business are one of the problems. Other than that, every project or business has to prepare a sustainability statement or sustainability report as vital to Bursa Malaysia Securities Berhad under their listing requirements. Next, the sustainability performance on their project cannot be determined to achieve the key performance indicators (KPI) satisfaction from Government, stakeholder or any responsible agencies. This study presents an exhaustive review of these studies and suggests a direction for future developments. Sustainability Assessment framework or self-assessment is decidedly as a significant framework to assist towards sustainability reporting and to produce a Sustainability index for Hydropower sector using a mathematical model study. The results reveal that, the quantitative measurement from Sustainability Assessment framework to Systematic Sustainability Asssesment tool can be produce. In doing so, it is possible to improve the performance of the project especially in hydropower planner.

The long-term economic impacts of arthritis through lost productive life years: results from an Australian microsimulation model.

PubMed

Schofield, Deborah; Cunich, Michelle; Shrestha, Rupendra N; Tanton, Robert; Veerman, Lennert; Kelly, Simon; Passey, Megan E

2018-05-24

While the direct (medical) costs of arthritis are regularly reported in cost of illness studies, the 'true' cost to indivdiuals and goverment requires the calculation of the indirect costs as well including lost productivity due to ill-health. Respondents aged 45-64 in the ABS Survey of Disability, Ageing and Carers 2003, 2009 formed the base population. We projected the indirect costs of arthritis using Health&WealthMOD2030 - Australia's first microsimulation model on the long-term impacts of ill-health in older workers - which incorporated outputs from established microsimulation models (STINMOD and APPSIM), population and labour force projections from Treasury, and chronic conditions trends for Australia. All costs of arthritis were expressed in real 2013 Australian dollars, adjusted for inflation over time. We estimated there are 54,000 people aged 45-64 with lost PLYs due to arthritis in 2015, increasing to 61,000 in 2030 (13% increase). In 2015, people with lost PLYs are estimated to receive AU$706.12 less in total income and AU$311.67 more in welfare payments per week than full-time workers without arthritis, and pay no income tax on average. National costs include an estimated loss of AU$1.5 billion in annual income in 2015, increasing to AU$2.4 billion in 2030 (59% increase). Lost annual taxation revenue was projected to increase from AU$0.4 billion in 2015 to $0.5 billion in 2030 (56% increase). We projected a loss in GDP of AU$6.2 billion in 2015, increasing to AU$8.2 billion in 2030. Significant costs of arthritis through lost PLYs are incurred by individuals and government. The effectiveness of arthritis interventions should be judged not only on healthcare use but quality of life and economic wellbeing.

Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health

PubMed Central

Garland, Rebecca M.; Matooane, Mamopeli; Engelbrecht, Francois A.; Bopape, Mary-Jane M.; Landman, Willem A.; Naidoo, Mogesh; van der Merwe, Jacobus; Wright, Caradee Y.

2015-01-01

Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change. PMID:26473895

Citizen science: a new direction in canine behavior research.

PubMed

Hecht, Julie; Spicer Rice, Eleanor

2015-01-01

Researchers increasingly rely on members of the public to contribute to scientific projects-from collecting or identifying, to analyzing and disseminating data. The "citizen science" model proves useful to many thematically distinctive fields, like ornithology, astronomy, and phenology. The recent formalization of citizen science projects addresses technical issues related to volunteer participation--like data quality--so that citizen scientists can make longstanding, meaningful contributions to scientific projects. Since the late 1990s, canine science research has relied with greater frequency on the participation of the general public, particularly dog owners. These researchers do not typically consider the methods and technical issues that those conducting citizen science projects embrace and continue to investigate. As more canine science studies rely on public input, an in-depth knowledge of the benefits and challenges of citizen science can help produce relevant, high-quality data while increasing the general public's understanding of canine behavior and cognition as well as the scientific process. We examine the benefits and challenges of current citizen science models in an effort to enhance canine citizen science project preparation, execution, and dissemination. This article is part of a Special Issue entitled: Canine Behavior. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Carbachol-Induced Reduction in the Activity of Adult Male Zebra Finch RA Projection Neurons.

PubMed

Meng, Wei; Wang, Song-Hua; Li, Dong-Feng

2016-01-01

Cholinergic mechanism is involved in motor behavior. In songbirds, the robust nucleus of the arcopallium (RA) is a song premotor nucleus in the pallium and receives cholinergic inputs from the basal forebrain. The activity of projection neurons in RA determines song motor behavior. Although many evidences suggest that cholinergic system is implicated in song production, the cholinergic modulation of RA is not clear until now. In the present study, the electrophysiological effects of carbachol, a nonselective cholinergic receptor agonist, were investigated on the RA projection neurons of adult male zebra finches through whole-cell patch-clamp techniques in vitro. Our results show that carbachol produced a significant decrease in the spontaneous and evoked action potential (AP) firing frequency of RA projection neurons, accompanying a hyperpolarization of the membrane potential, an increase in the evoked AP latency, afterhyperpolarization (AHP) peak amplitude, and AHP time to peak, and a decrease in the membrane input resistance, membrane time constant, and membrane capacitance. These results indicate that carbachol reduces the activity of RA projection neurons by hyperpolarizing the resting membrane potential and increasing the AHP and the membrane conductance, suggesting that the cholinergic modulation of RA may play an important role in song production.

Health empowerment among immigrant women in transnational marriages in Taiwan.

PubMed

Yang, Yung-Mei; Wang, Hsiu-Hung; Lee, Fang-Hsin; Lin, Miao-Ling; Lin, Pei-Chao

2015-03-01

The aim of this study was to develop, implement, and evaluate a theory-based intervention designed to promote increased health empowerment for marriage migrant women in Taiwan. The rapid increase of international marriage immigration through matchmaking agencies has received great attention recently because of its impact on social and public health issues in the receiving countries. A participatory action research (PAR) and in-depth interviews were adopted. Sixty-eight women participated in this study. Eight workshops of the health empowerment project were completed. Through a PAR-based project, participants received positive outcomes. Four outcome themes were identified: (a) increasing health literacy, (b) facilitating capacity to build social networks, (c) enhancing sense of self-worth, and (d) building psychological resilience. PAR was a helpful strategy that enabled disadvantaged migrant women to increase their health literacy, psychological and social health, and well-being. The findings can be referenced by the government in making health-promoting policies for Southeast Asian immigrant women to increase their well-being. Community health nurses can apply PAR strategies to plan and design health promotion intervention for disadvantaged migrant women. © 2014 Sigma Theta Tau International.

77 FR 49797 - Agency Forms Undergoing Paperwork Reduction Act Review

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-08-17

... Project Formative Research for the Development of CDC's Act Against AIDS Social Marketing Campaigns... study is to conduct interviews and focus groups in four rounds of data collections (exploratory research... period to develop various social marketing campaigns aimed at increasing HIV testing rates, increasing...

Blended Instruction: Integrating the Curriculum through Projects and Curriculum Alignment.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Maryland State Dept. of Education, Baltimore. Div. of Career Technology and Adult Learning.

"Blended instruction" is an approach to integrating high school curriculum around broad career clusters or areas of student interest and study. Blended instruction is intended to engage students in more challenging assignments, increase attendance, and increase student academic and technical achievement. This Maryland guide contains…

Effects of increasing the allowable compressive stress at release on the shear strength of prestressed concrete girders.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-09-01

In recent years, several research projects have been conducted to study the feasibility of increasing the allowable : compressive stress in concrete at prestress transfer, currently defined as 0.60f'ci in the AASHTO LRFD Bridge : Design Specification...

The Ethnic Minority Educator: Near Extinction?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chinn, Philip C.

1988-01-01

This article briefly describes the decline of the number of minority teachers at a time when the numbers of minority students are increasing and are projected to increase through the end of this century. The article reports a variety of studies and statistics which reflect this trend. (JL)

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

PubMed Central

Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-01-01

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue ‘The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels’. PMID:29610383

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Betts, Richard A.; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J.; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-01

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity. This article is part of the theme issue `The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Changes in climate extremes, fresh water availability and vulnerability to food insecurity projected at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming with a higher-resolution global climate model.

PubMed

Betts, Richard A; Alfieri, Lorenzo; Bradshaw, Catherine; Caesar, John; Feyen, Luc; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Gohar, Laila; Koutroulis, Aristeidis; Lewis, Kirsty; Morfopoulos, Catherine; Papadimitriou, Lamprini; Richardson, Katy J; Tsanis, Ioannis; Wyser, Klaus

2018-05-13

We projected changes in weather extremes, hydrological impacts and vulnerability to food insecurity at global warming of 1.5°C and 2°C relative to pre-industrial, using a new global atmospheric general circulation model HadGEM3A-GA3.0 driven by patterns of sea-surface temperatures and sea ice from selected members of the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) ensemble, forced with the RCP8.5 concentration scenario. To provide more detailed representations of climate processes and impacts, the spatial resolution was N216 (approx. 60 km grid length in mid-latitudes), a higher resolution than the CMIP5 models. We used a set of impacts-relevant indices and a global land surface model to examine the projected changes in weather extremes and their implications for freshwater availability and vulnerability to food insecurity. Uncertainties in regional climate responses are assessed, examining ranges of outcomes in impacts to inform risk assessments. Despite some degree of inconsistency between components of the study due to the need to correct for systematic biases in some aspects, the outcomes from different ensemble members could be compared for several different indicators. The projections for weather extremes indices and biophysical impacts quantities support expectations that the magnitude of change is generally larger for 2°C global warming than 1.5°C. Hot extremes become even hotter, with increases being more intense than seen in CMIP5 projections. Precipitation-related extremes show more geographical variation with some increases and some decreases in both heavy precipitation and drought. There are substantial regional uncertainties in hydrological impacts at local scales due to different climate models producing different outcomes. Nevertheless, hydrological impacts generally point towards wetter conditions on average, with increased mean river flows, longer heavy rainfall events, particularly in South and East Asia with the most extreme projections suggesting more than a doubling of flows in the Ganges at 2°C global warming. Some areas are projected to experience shorter meteorological drought events and less severe low flows, although longer droughts and/or decreases in low flows are projected in many other areas, particularly southern Africa and South America. Flows in the Amazon are projected to decline by up to 25%. Increases in either heavy rainfall or drought events imply increased vulnerability to food insecurity, but if global warming is limited to 1.5°C, this vulnerability is projected to remain smaller than at 2°C global warming in approximately 76% of developing countries. At 2°C, four countries are projected to reach unprecedented levels of vulnerability to food insecurity.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'. © 2018 The Authors.

Increasing seat belt use through state-level demonstration projects : a compendium of initial findings

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2008-08-01

This report summarizes the efforts and results from four of six State-level demonstration projects supported with cooperative agreements from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. The projects were intended to increase seat belt use sta...

The Projection of Burden of Disease in Islamic Republic of Iran to 2025

PubMed Central

Khajehkazemi, Razieh; Sadeghirad, Behnam; Karamouzian, Mohammad; Fallah, Mohammad-Sadegh; Mehrolhassani, Mohammad-Hossien; Dehnavieh, Reza; Haghdoost, AliAkbar

2013-01-01

Objective Iran as a developing country is in the transition phase, which might have a big impact on the Burden of Disease and Injury (BOD). This study aims to estimate Burden of Disease and Injury (BOD) in Iran up to 2025 due to four broad cause groups using Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY). Methods The impacts of demographic and epidemiological changes on BOD (DemBOD and EpiBOD) were assessed separately. We estimated DemBOD in nine scenarios, using different projections for life expectancy and total fertility rate. EpiBOD was modeled in two scenarios as a proportion of DemBOD, based on the extracted parameters from an international study. Findings The BOD is projected to increase from 14.3 million in 2003 to 19.4 million in 2025 (95% uncertainty interval: 16.8, 21.9), which shows an overall increase of 35.3%. Non-communicable diseases (12.7 million DALY, 66.0%), injuries (4.6 million DALY, 24.0%), and communicable diseases, except HIV/AIDS (1.8 million DALY, 9%) will be the leading causes of losing healthy life. Under the most likely scenario, the maximum increase in disease burden due to DemBOD is projected to be observed in HIV/AIDS and Non-communicable diseases (63.9 and 62.4%, respectively) and due to EpiBOD in HIV/AIDS (319.5%). Conclusion It seems that in the following decades, BOD will have a sharp increase in Iran, mainly due to DemBOD. It seems that communicable diseases (except HIV/AIDS) will have less contribution, and especially non-communicable diseases will play a more significant role. PMID:24146941

Projections of health care expenditures as a share of the GDP: actuarial and macroeconomic approaches.

PubMed Central

Warshawsky, M J

1994-01-01

STUDY QUESTION. Can the steady increases in health care expenditures as a share of GDP projected by widely cited actuarial models be rationalized by a macroeconomic model with sensible parameters and specification? DATA SOURCES. National Income and Product Accounts, and Social Security and Health Care Financing Administration are the data sources used in parameters estimates. STUDY DESIGN. Health care expenditures as a share of gross domestic product (GDP) are projected using two methodological approaches--actuarial and macroeconomic--and under various assumptions. The general equilibrium macroeconomic approach has the advantage of allowing an investigation of the causes of growth in the health care sector and its consequences for the overall economy. DATA COLLECTION METHODS. Simulations are used. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS. Both models unanimously project a continued increase in the ratio of health care expenditures to GDP. Under the most conservative assumptions, that is, robust economic growth, improved demographic trends, or a significant moderation in the rate of health care price inflation, the health care sector will consume more than a quarter of national output by 2065. Under other (perhaps more realistic) assumptions, including a continuation of current trends, both approaches predict that health care expenditures will comprise between a third and a half of national output. In the macroeconomic model, the increasing use of capital goods in the health care sector explains the observed rise in relative prices. Moreover, this "capital deepening" implies that a relatively modest fraction of the labor force is employed in health care and that the rest of the economy is increasingly starved for capital, resulting in a declining standard of living. PMID:8063567

The Impact of Climate Change on the Potential Distribution of Agricultural Pests: The Case of the Coffee White Stem Borer (Monochamus leuconotus P.) in Zimbabwe

PubMed Central

Kutywayo, Dumisani; Chemura, Abel; Kusena, Winmore; Chidoko, Pardon; Mahoya, Caleb

2013-01-01

The production of agricultural commodities faces increased risk of pests, diseases and other stresses due to climate change and variability. This study assesses the potential distribution of agricultural pests under projected climatic scenarios using evidence from the African coffee white stem borer (CWB), Monochamus leuconotus (Pascoe) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae), an important pest of coffee in Zimbabwe. A species distribution modeling approach utilising Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) and Generalized Linear Models (GLM) was applied on current and projected climate data obtained from the WorldClim database and occurrence data (presence and absence) collected through on-farm biological surveys in Chipinge, Chimanimani, Mutare and Mutasa districts in Zimbabwe. Results from both the BRT and GLM indicate that precipitation-related variables are more important in determining species range for the CWB than temperature related variables. The CWB has extensive potential habitats in all coffee areas with Mutasa district having the largest model average area suitable for CWB under current and projected climatic conditions. Habitat ranges for CWB will increase under future climate scenarios for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutare districts while it will decrease in Mutasa district. The highest percentage change in area suitable for the CWB was for Chimanimani district with a model average of 49.1% (3 906 ha) increase in CWB range by 2080. The BRT and GLM predictions gave similar predicted ranges for Chipinge, Chimanimani and Mutasa districts compared to the high variation in current and projected habitat area for CWB in Mutare district. The study concludes that suitable area for CWB will increase significantly in Zimbabwe due to climate change and there is need to develop adaptation mechanisms. PMID:24014222

Once is not enough: withholding postoperative prophylactic antibiotics in prosthetic breast reconstruction is associated with an increased risk of infection.

PubMed

Clayton, John L; Bazakas, Andrea; Lee, Clara N; Hultman, C Scott; Halvorson, Eric G

2012-09-01

There has been a trend toward limiting perioperative prophylactic antibiotics, based on research not conducted in plastic surgery patients. The authors' university hospital instituted antibiotic prescribing guidelines based on the Surgical Care Improvement Project. An increased rate of surgical-site infections was noted in breast reconstruction patients. The authors sought to determine whether the change in antibiotic prophylaxis regimen affected rates of surgical-site infections. A retrospective study compared patients undergoing breast reconstruction who received preoperative and postoperative prophylactic antibiotics with a group who received only a single dose of preoperative antibiotic. Type of reconstruction and known risk factors for implant infection were noted. Two hundred fifty patients were included: 116 in the pre-Surgical Care Improvement Project group and 134 in the Surgical Care Improvement Project group. The overall rate of surgical-site infections increased from 18.1 percent to 34.3 percent (p = 0.004). Infections requiring reoperation increased from 4.3 percent to 16.4 percent (p = 0.002). Multivariate logistic regression demonstrated that patients in the Surgical Care Improvement group were 4.74 times more likely to develop a surgical-site infection requiring reoperation (95 percent CI, 1.69 to 13.80). Obesity, history of radiation therapy, and reconstruction with tissue expanders were associated with increased rates of surgical-site infection requiring reoperation. Withholding postoperative prophylactic antibiotics in prosthetic breast reconstruction is associated with an increased risk of surgical-site infection, reoperation, and thus reconstructive failure. The optimal duration of postoperative prophylactic antibiotic use is the subject of future study.

A Synoptic Weather Typing Approach and Its application to Assess Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Weather Events at Local Scale in South-Central Canada

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Shouquan Cheng, Chad; Li, Qian; Li, Guilong

2010-05-01

The synoptic weather typing approach has become popular in evaluating the impacts of climate change on a variety of environmental problems. One of the reasons is its ability to categorize a complex set of meteorological variables as a coherent index, which can facilitate analyses of local climate change impacts. The weather typing method has been successfully applied in Environment Canada for several research projects to analyze climatic change impacts on a number of extreme weather events, such as freezing rain, heavy rainfall, high-/low-flow events, air pollution, and human health. These studies comprise of three major parts: (1) historical simulation modeling to verify the extreme weather events, (2) statistical downscaling to provide station-scale future hourly/daily climate data, and (3) projections of changes in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events in this century. To achieve these goals, in addition to synoptic weather typing, the modeling conceptualizations in meteorology and hydrology and a number of linear/nonlinear regression techniques were applied. Furthermore, a formal model result verification process has been built into each of the three parts of the projects. The results of the verification, based on historical observations of the outcome variables predicted by the models, showed very good agreement. The modeled results from these projects found that the frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events are projected to significantly increase under a changing climate in this century. This talk will introduce these research projects and outline the modeling exercise and result verification process. The major findings on future projections from the studies will be summarized in the presentation as well. One of the major conclusions from the studies is that the procedures (including synoptic weather typing) used in the studies are useful for climate change impact analysis on future extreme weather events. The implication of the significant increases in frequency and intensity of future extreme weather events would be useful to be considered when revising engineering infrastructure design standards and developing adaptation strategies and policies.

Catching fire and spreading it: A glimpse into displayed entrepreneurial passion in crowdfunding campaigns.

PubMed

Li, Junchao Jason; Chen, Xiao-Ping; Kotha, Suresh; Fisher, Greg

2017-07-01

Crowdfunding is an emerging phenomenon that enables entrepreneurs to solicit financial contributions for new projects from mass audiences. Drawing on the elaboration likelihood model of persuasion and emotional contagion theory, the authors examined the importance of displayed entrepreneurial passion when seeking resources in a crowdfunding context. They proposed that entrepreneurs' displayed passion in the introductory video for a crowdfunding project increases viewers' experienced enthusiasm about the project (i.e., passion contagion), which then prompts them to contribute financially and to share campaign information via social-media channels. Such sharing further facilitates campaign success. In addition, the authors proposed that perceived project innovativeness strengthens the positive effect of displayed passion on social-media exposure and the funding amount a project garners. They first tested their hypotheses in 2 studies using a combination of survey and archival data from the world's 2 most popular crowdfunding platforms: Indiegogo (Study 1) and Kickstarter (Study 2). They then conducted an experiment (Study 3) to validate the proposed passion contagion process, and the effect of displayed entrepreneurial passion at the individual level. Findings from these 3 studies significantly supported their hypotheses. The authors discuss the theoretical and practical implications of their findings. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

A multi-site evaluation of innovative approaches to increase tuberculosis case notification: summary results.

PubMed

Creswell, Jacob; Sahu, Suvanand; Blok, Lucie; Bakker, Mirjam I; Stevens, Robert; Ditiu, Lucica

2014-01-01

Globally, TB notifications have stagnated since 2007, and sputum smear positive notifications have been declining despite policies to improve case detection. We evaluate results of 28 interventions focused on improving TB case detection. We measured additional sputum smear positive cases treated, defined as the intervention area's increase in case notification during the project compared to the previous year. Projects were encouraged to select control areas and collect historical notification data. We used time series negative binomial regression for over-dispersed cross-sectional data accounting for fixed and random effects to test the individual projects' effects on TB notification while controlling for trend and control populations. Twenty-eight projects, 19 with control populations, completed at least four quarters of case finding activities, covering a population of 89.2 million. Among all projects sputum smear positive (SS+) TB notifications increased 24.9% and annualized notification rates increased from 69.1 to 86.2/100,000 (p = 0.0209) during interventions. Among the 19 projects with control populations, SS+TB case notifications increased 36.9% increase while in the control populations a 3.6% decrease was observed. Fourteen (74%) of the 19 projects' SS+TB notification rates in intervention areas increased from the baseline to intervention period when controlling for historical trends and notifications in control areas. Interventions were associated with large increases in TB notifications across many settings, using an array of interventions. Many people with TB are not reached using current approaches. Different methods and interventions tailored to local realities are urgently needed.

Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence: the benefits of increasing the UK tobacco duty escalator to public health and economic outcomes.

PubMed

Knuchel-Takano, Andre; Hunt, Daniel; Jaccard, Abbygail; Bhimjiyani, Arti; Brown, Martin; Retat, Lise; Brown, Katrina; Hinde, Sebastian; Selvarajah, Chit; Bauld, Linda; Webber, Laura

2017-12-06

Taxing tobacco is one of the most effective ways to reduce smoking prevalence, mitigate its devastating consequential health harms and progress towards a tobacco-free society. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of increasing the existing cigarette tobacco duty escalator (TDE) in the UK from the current 2% above consumer price inflation to 5%. A two-stage modelling process was used. First, a non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data, creating longitudinal projections from 2015 to 2035. Second, these projections were used to predict the future incidence, prevalence and cost of 17 smoking-related diseases using a Monte Carlo microsimulation approach. A sustained increase in the duty escalator was evaluated against a baseline of continuing historical smoking trends and the existing duty escalator. A sustained increase in the TDE is projected to reduce adult smoking prevalence to 6% in 2035, from 10% in a baseline scenario. After increasing the TDE, only 65% of female and 60% of male would-be smokers would actually be smoking in 2035. The intervention is projected to avoid around 75 200 new cases of smoking-related diseases between 2015 and 2035. In 2035 alone, £49 m in National Health Service and social care costs and £192 m in societal premature mortality and morbidity costs are projected to be avoided. Increasing the UK TDE to 5% above inflation could effectively reduce smoking prevalence, prevent diseases and avoid healthcare costs. It would deliver substantial progress towards a tobacco-free society and should be implemented by the UK Government with urgency. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Visual Impairment in Preschool Children in the United States: Demographic and Geographic Variations From 2015 to 2060.

PubMed

Varma, Rohit; Tarczy-Hornoch, Kristina; Jiang, Xuejuan

2017-06-01

Visual impairment (VI) in early childhood can significantly impair development. To determine demographic and geographic variations in VI in children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States in 2015 and to estimate projected prevalence through 2060. Descriptive study reporting statistics estimated based on prevalence data from 2 major population-based studies conducted in the United States between 2003 and 2011. Using US census projections, prevalence of VI and cause-specific VI in the better eye were reported by race/ethnicity, state and region, and per capita prevalence of VI by state. The study included preschool children in the United States. Analyses for this study were conducted between February 2016 and March 2017. Prevalence of VI among children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States. In 2015, more than 174 000 children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States were visually impaired. Almost 121 000 of these cases (69%) arose from simple uncorrected refractive error, and 43 000 (25%) from bilateral amblyopia. By 2060, the number of children aged 3 to 5 years with VI is projected to increase by 26%. In 2015, Hispanic white children accounted for the highest number of VI cases (66 000); this group will remain the most affected through 2060, with an increasingly large proportion of cases (37.7% in 2015 and 43.6% in 2060). The racial/ethnic group with the second most VI is projected to shift from non-Hispanic white children (26.3% in 2015 decreasing to 16.5% in 2060) to African American children (24.5% in 2015 and 22.0% in 2060). From 2015 to 2060, the states projected to have the most children with VI are California (26 600 in 2015 and 38 000 in 2060), Texas (21 500 in 2015 and 29 100 in 2060), and Florida (10 900 in 2015 and 13 900 in 2060). These data suggest that the number of preschool children with VI is projected to increase disproportionally, especially among minority populations. Vision screening for refractive error and related eye diseases may prevent a high proportion of preschool children from experiencing unnecessary VI and associated developmental delays.

Visual Impairment in Preschool Children in the United States

PubMed Central

Tarczy-Hornoch, Kristina; Jiang, Xuejuan

2017-01-01

Importance Visual impairment (VI) in early childhood can significantly impair development. Objective To determine demographic and geographic variations in VI in children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States in 2015 and to estimate projected prevalence through 2060. Design, Setting, and Participants Descriptive study reporting statistics estimated based on prevalence data from 2 major population-based studies conducted in the United States between 2003 and 2011. Using US census projections, prevalence of VI and cause-specific VI in the better eye were reported by race/ethnicity, state and region, and per capita prevalence of VI by state. The study included preschool children in the United States. Analyses for this study were conducted between February 2016 and March 2017. Main Outcomes and Measures Prevalence of VI among children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States. Results In 2015, more than 174 000 children aged 3 to 5 years in the United States were visually impaired. Almost 121 000 of these cases (69%) arose from simple uncorrected refractive error, and 43 000 (25%) from bilateral amblyopia. By 2060, the number of children aged 3 to 5 years with VI is projected to increase by 26%. In 2015, Hispanic white children accounted for the highest number of VI cases (66 000); this group will remain the most affected through 2060, with an increasingly large proportion of cases (37.7% in 2015 and 43.6% in 2060). The racial/ethnic group with the second most VI is projected to shift from non-Hispanic white children (26.3% in 2015 decreasing to 16.5% in 2060) to African American children (24.5% in 2015 and 22.0% in 2060). From 2015 to 2060, the states projected to have the most children with VI are California (26 600 in 2015 and 38 000 in 2060), Texas (21 500 in 2015 and 29 100 in 2060), and Florida (10 900 in 2015 and 13 900 in 2060). Conclusions and Relevance These data suggest that the number of preschool children with VI is projected to increase disproportionally, especially among minority populations. Vision screening for refractive error and related eye diseases may prevent a high proportion of preschool children from experiencing unnecessary VI and associated developmental delays. PMID:28472231

Responses of runoff to historical and future climate variability over China

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Chuanhao; Hu, Bill X.; Huang, Guoru; Wang, Peng; Xu, Kai

2018-03-01

China has suffered some of the effects of global warming, and one of the potential implications of climate warming is the alteration of the temporal-spatial patterns of water resources. Based on the long-term (1960-2008) water budget data and climate projections from 28 global climate models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), this study investigated the responses of runoff (R) to historical and future climate variability in China at both grid and catchment scales using the Budyko-based elasticity method. Results show that there is a large spatial variation in precipitation (P) elasticity (from 1.1 to 3.2) and potential evaporation (PET) elasticity (from -2.2 to -0.1) across China. The P elasticity is larger in north-eastern and western China than in southern China, while the opposite occurs for PET elasticity. The catchment properties' elasticity of R appears to have a strong non-linear relationship with the mean annual aridity index and tends to be more significant in more arid regions. For the period 1960-2008, the climate contribution to R ranges from -2.4 to 3.6 % yr-1 across China, with the negative contribution in north-eastern China and the positive contribution in western China and some parts of the south-west. The results of climate projections indicate that although there is large uncertainty involved in the 28 GCMs, most project a consistent change in P (or PET) in China at the annual scale. For the period 2071-2100, the mean annual P is projected to increase in most parts of China, especially the western regions, while the mean annual PET is projected to increase in all of China, particularly the southern regions. Furthermore, greater increases are projected for higher emission scenarios. Overall, due to climate change, the arid regions and humid regions of China are projected to become wetter and drier in the period 2071-2100, respectively (relative to the baseline 1971-2000).

An improved robust buffer allocation method for the project scheduling problem

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ghoddousi, Parviz; Ansari, Ramin; Makui, Ahmad

2017-04-01

Unpredictable uncertainties cause delays and additional costs for projects. Often, when using traditional approaches, the optimizing procedure of the baseline project plan fails and leads to delays. In this study, a two-stage multi-objective buffer allocation approach is applied for robust project scheduling. In the first stage, some decisions are made on buffer sizes and allocation to the project activities. A set of Pareto-optimal robust schedules is designed using the meta-heuristic non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) based on the decisions made in the buffer allocation step. In the second stage, the Pareto solutions are evaluated in terms of the deviation from the initial start time and due dates. The proposed approach was implemented on a real dam construction project. The outcomes indicated that the obtained buffered schedule reduces the cost of disruptions by 17.7% compared with the baseline plan, with an increase of about 0.3% in the project completion time.

Outcomes of a Multi-faceted Educational Intervention to Increase Student Scholarship

PubMed Central

Nelson, Melissa; Slack, Marion; Warholak, Terri

2015-01-01

Objective. To increase the percentage of state, national, or international student presentations and publications. Design. A multi-faceted intervention to increase student scholarly output was developed that included: (1) a 120-minute lecture on publication of quality improvement or independent study research findings; (2) abstract workshops; (3) poster workshops; and (4) a reminder at an advanced pharmacy practice experience (APPE) meeting encouraging students to publish or present posters. The intervention effect was measured as the percent of students who presented at meetings and the number of student projects published. Assessment. A significant increase occurred in the percent of students who presented posters or published manuscripts after the intervention (64% vs 81%). Total student productivity increased from 84 to 147 posters, publications, and presentations. The number of projects presented or published increased from 50 to 77 in one year. Conclusion. This high-impact, low-cost intervention increased scholarly output and may help students stand out in a competitive job market. PMID:26430267

Indicators of sustainable capacity building for health research: analysis of four African case studies.

PubMed

Bates, Imelda; Taegtmeyer, Miriam; Squire, S Bertel; Ansong, Daniel; Nhlema-Simwaka, Bertha; Baba, Amuda; Theobald, Sally

2011-03-28

Despite substantial investment in health capacity building in developing countries, evaluations of capacity building effectiveness are scarce. By analysing projects in Africa that had successfully built sustainable capacity, we aimed to identify evidence that could indicate that capacity building was likely to be sustainable. Four projects were selected as case studies using pre-determined criteria, including the achievement of sustainable capacity. By mapping the capacity building activities in each case study onto a framework previously used for evaluating health research capacity in Ghana, we were able to identify activities that were common to all projects. We used these activities to derive indicators which could be used in other projects to monitor progress towards building sustainable research capacity. Indicators of sustainable capacity building increased in complexity as projects matured and included- early engagement of stakeholders; explicit plans for scale up; strategies for influencing policies; quality assessments (awareness and experiential stages)- improved resources; institutionalisation of activities; innovation (expansion stage)- funding for core activities secured; management and decision-making led by southern partners (consolidation stage).Projects became sustainable after a median of 66 months. The main challenges to achieving sustainability were high turnover of staff and stakeholders, and difficulties in embedding new activities into existing systems, securing funding and influencing policy development. Our indicators of sustainable capacity building need to be tested prospectively in a variety of projects to assess their usefulness. For each project the evidence required to show that indicators have been achieved should evolve with the project and they should be determined prospectively in collaboration with stakeholders.

Nationwide cohort study of hip fractures: time trends in the incidence rates and projections up to 2035.

PubMed

Chen, I-J; Chiang, C-Y F; Li, Y-H; Chang, C-H; Hu, C-C; Chen, D W; Chang, Y; Yang, W-E; Shih, H-N; Ueng, S W-N; Hsieh, P-H

2015-02-01

A growing elderly population is expected worldwide, and the burden of hip fractures on health care system will continue to increase. By 2035, there will be a 2.7-fold increase in the number of hip fractures in Taiwan. The study provides quantitative basis for the future distribution of medical resources. Hip fractures have long been recognized as a major public health concern. The study aimed to determine time trends in the incidence of hip fractures and to forecast the number of hip fractures expected in Taiwan up to 2035. A nationwide survey was conducted using data from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database from 2004 to 2011. A total of 141,397 hip fractures were identified, with a mean of 17,675 fractures/year. Annual incidences of hip fractures were calculated and tested for trends. Projections of the incidence rates of hip fractures and bed days associated with hip fractures were calculated using Poisson regression on the historical incidence rates in combination with population projections from 2012 to 2035. The incidence rates of hip fracture during 2004-2011 were 317 and 211 per 100,000 person-years among women and men, respectively. Over this 8-year period, the age-standardized incidence of hip fracture decreased by 13.4% among women and 12.2% among men. Despite the decline in the age-standardized incidence, the absolute number of hip fractures increased owing to the aging population. The number of hip fractures is expected to increase from 18,338 in 2010 to 50,421 in 2035-a 2.7-fold increase. The number of bed days for 2010 and 2035 was estimated at 161,248 and 501,995, respectively, representing a 3.1-fold increase. The socioeconomic impact of hip fractures will be high in the near future. This study provides a quantitative basis for future policy decisions to serve this need.

Surgical Quality in Rectal Cancer Management: What Can Be Achieved by a Voluntary Observational Study?

PubMed Central

Dziki, Łukasz; Otto, Ronny; Lippert, Hans; Jannasch, Olof

2018-01-01

Purpose Countries with nationwide quality programmes in colorectal cancer report an improved outcome. In Germany, a self-organized and self-financed observational quality assurance project exists, based on voluntary participation. The object of the present study was to ascertain whether this nationwide project also improves the outcome of colorectal cancer. Methods The German Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Project started in 2000 and by 2012 contained 85,000 patients. Inclusion criteria for the study were participation for the entire period of 13 years and treatment of rectal cancer. The following parameters were analysed: (1) patient related: age, gender, ASA classification, T-stage, and N-stage, (2) system related: frequency of preoperative CT and MRI, and (3) outcome related: CRM status, complications, and hospital mortality. Results Forty-one of the 345 hospitals treating 11,597 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The median age increased from 67 to 69 years (p = 0.002). ASA stages III and IV increased from 32.0% to 37.6% (p = 0.005) and from 2.0% to 3.3% (p = 0.022), respectively. The use of CT rose from 67.2% to 88.8% (p < 0.001) and that of MRI from 5.0% to 35.2% (p < 0.001). The proportion of patients suffering from complications decreased from 7.9% to 5.3% (p < 0.001) for intraoperative and from 28.0% to 18.6% (p < 0.001) for postoperative surgical complications, but general postoperative complications increased from 25.8% to 29.5% (p = 0.006). The distribution of histopathological stage, anastomotic leakage, and in-hospital mortality did not change significantly. Conclusion Participation in a quality assurance project improves compliance with treatment standards, especially for diagnostic procedures. An improvement of surgical results will require further investment in training. PMID:29853860

Surgical Quality in Rectal Cancer Management: What Can Be Achieved by a Voluntary Observational Study?

PubMed

Dziki, Łukasz; Otto, Ronny; Lippert, Hans; Mroczkowski, Paweł; Jannasch, Olof

2018-01-01

Countries with nationwide quality programmes in colorectal cancer report an improved outcome. In Germany, a self-organized and self-financed observational quality assurance project exists, based on voluntary participation. The object of the present study was to ascertain whether this nationwide project also improves the outcome of colorectal cancer. The German Quality Assurance in Colorectal Cancer Project started in 2000 and by 2012 contained 85,000 patients. Inclusion criteria for the study were participation for the entire period of 13 years and treatment of rectal cancer. The following parameters were analysed: (1) patient related: age, gender, ASA classification, T-stage, and N-stage, (2) system related: frequency of preoperative CT and MRI, and (3) outcome related: CRM status, complications, and hospital mortality. Forty-one of the 345 hospitals treating 11,597 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The median age increased from 67 to 69 years ( p = 0.002). ASA stages III and IV increased from 32.0% to 37.6% ( p = 0.005) and from 2.0% to 3.3% ( p = 0.022), respectively. The use of CT rose from 67.2% to 88.8% ( p < 0.001) and that of MRI from 5.0% to 35.2% ( p < 0.001). The proportion of patients suffering from complications decreased from 7.9% to 5.3% ( p < 0.001) for intraoperative and from 28.0% to 18.6% ( p < 0.001) for postoperative surgical complications, but general postoperative complications increased from 25.8% to 29.5% ( p = 0.006). The distribution of histopathological stage, anastomotic leakage, and in-hospital mortality did not change significantly. Participation in a quality assurance project improves compliance with treatment standards, especially for diagnostic procedures. An improvement of surgical results will require further investment in training.

Design of monocular head-mounted displays for increased indoor firefighting safety and efficiency

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, Joel; Steingart, Dan; Romero, Russell; Reynolds, Jessica; Mellers, Eric; Redfern, Andrew; Lim, Lloyd; Watts, William; Patton, Colin; Baker, Jessica; Wright, Paul

2005-05-01

Four monocular Head-Mounted Display (HMD) prototypes from the Fire Information and Rescue Equipment (FIRE) project at UC Berkeley are presented. The FIRE project aims to give firefighters a system of information technology tools for safer and more efficient firefighting in large buildings. The paper begins by describing the FIRE project and its use of a custom wireless sensor network (WSN) called SmokeNet for personnel tracking. The project aims to address urban/industrial firefighting procedures in need of improvement. Two "user-needs" studies with the Chicago and Berkeley Fire Departments are briefly presented. The FIRE project"s initial HMD prototype designs are then discussed with regard to feedback from the user-needs studies. These prototypes are evaluated in their potential costs and benefits to firefighters and found to need improvement. Next, some currently available commercial HMDs are reviewed and compared in their cost, performance, and potential for use by firefighters. Feedback from the Berkeley Fire Department user-needs study, in which the initial prototypes were demonstrated, is compiled into a concept selection matrix for the next prototypes. This matrix is used to evaluate a variety of HMDs, including some of the commercial units presented, and to select the best design options. Finally, the current prototypes of the two best design options are presented and discussed.

Accelerating Software Development through Agile Practices--A Case Study of a Small-Scale, Time-Intensive Web Development Project at a College-Level IT Competition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Xuesong; Dorn, Bradley

2012-01-01

Agile development has received increasing interest both in industry and academia due to its benefits in developing software quickly, meeting customer needs, and keeping pace with the rapidly changing requirements. However, agile practices and scrum in particular have been mainly tested in mid- to large-size projects. In this paper, we present…

Using climate-FVS to project landscape-level forest carbon stores for 100 years from field and LiDAR measures of initial conditions

Treesearch

Fabian B. Galvez; Andrew T. Hudak; John C. Byrne; Nicholas L. Crookston; Robert F. Keefe

2014-01-01

Forest resources supply a wide range of environmental services like mitigation of increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). As climate is changing, forest managers have added pressure to obtain forest resources by following stand management alternatives that are biologically sustainable and economically profitable. The goal of this study is to project the...

The MOOC-CLIL Project: Using MOOCs to Increase Language, and Social and Online Learning Skills for 5th Grade K-12 Students

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

de Waard, Inge; Demeulenaere, Kathy

2017-01-01

This study comprises the outcomes and methods of a one year project using Content and Language Integrated Learning (CLIL) and Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) embedded in K-12 classes. The Self-Regulated Learning (SRL) of 42 students enrolled in three 5th grade classes were monitored. The students took the MOOCCLIL class for one year…

Using statistical model to simulate the impact of climate change on maize yield with climate and crop uncertainties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Yi; Zhao, Yanxia; Wang, Chunyi; Chen, Sining

2017-11-01

Assessment of the impact of climate change on crop productions with considering uncertainties is essential for properly identifying and decision-making agricultural practices that are sustainable. In this study, we employed 24 climate projections consisting of the combinations of eight GCMs and three emission scenarios representing the climate projections uncertainty, and two crop statistical models with 100 sets of parameters in each model representing parameter uncertainty within the crop models. The goal of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize ( Zea mays L.) yield at three locations (Benxi, Changling, and Hailun) across Northeast China (NEC) in periods 2010-2039 and 2040-2069, taking 1976-2005 as the baseline period. The multi-models ensembles method is an effective way to deal with the uncertainties. The results of ensemble simulations showed that maize yield reductions were less than 5 % in both future periods relative to the baseline. To further understand the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty, such as climate projections and crop model parameters, in ensemble yield simulations, variance decomposition was performed. The results indicated that the uncertainty from climate projections was much larger than that contributed by crop model parameters. Increased ensemble yield variance revealed the increasing uncertainty in the yield simulation in the future periods.

Experimental study of stochastic noise propagation in SPECT images reconstructed using the conjugate gradient algorithm.

PubMed

Mariano-Goulart, D; Fourcade, M; Bernon, J L; Rossi, M; Zanca, M

2003-01-01

Thanks to an experimental study based on simulated and physical phantoms, the propagation of the stochastic noise in slices reconstructed using the conjugate gradient algorithm has been analysed versus iterations. After a first increase corresponding to the reconstruction of the signal, the noise stabilises before increasing linearly with iterations. The level of the plateau as well as the slope of the subsequent linear increase depends on the noise in the projection data.

A life cycle cost economics model for automation projects with uniformly varying operating costs. [applied to Deep Space Network and Air Force Systems Command

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Remer, D. S.

1977-01-01

The described mathematical model calculates life-cycle costs for projects with operating costs increasing or decreasing linearly with time. The cost factors involved in the life-cycle cost are considered, and the errors resulting from the assumption of constant rather than uniformly varying operating costs are examined. Parameters in the study range from 2 to 30 years, for project life; 0 to 15% per year, for interest rate; and 5 to 90% of the initial operating cost, for the operating cost gradient. A numerical example is presented.

Empowering women: participatory approaches in women's health and development projects.

PubMed

Manderson, L; Mark, T

1997-01-01

The authors describe the experience of NGOs (nongovernmental organizations) and community-based organizations in implementing projects aimed at improving women's health. The study included 16 projects, reflecting Australian NGO experiences in Africa, China, Southeast Asia, the Pacific, and South America. They illustrate the value of participatory approaches in determining needs and priorities, and the value of the continued involvement of women in implementation, monitoring, and evaluation. Approaches that succeeded in increasing women's access to and use of health services addressed gender issues, set realistic and achievable objectives, and recognized and enhanced the roles and status of women.

Acid mine drainage and subsidence: effects of increased coal utilization.

PubMed Central

Hill, R D; Bates, E R

1979-01-01

The increases above 1975 levels for acid mine drainage and subsidence for the years 1985 and 2000 based on projections of current mining trends and the National Energy Plan are presented. No increases are projected for acid mine drainage from surface mines or waste since enforcement under present laws should control this problem. The increase in acid mine drainage from underground mines is projected to be 16 percent by 1985 and 10 percent by 2000. The smaller increase in 2000 over 1985 reflects the impact of the PL 95-87 abandoned mine program. Mine subsidence is projected to increase by 34 and 115 percent respectively for 1985 and 2000. This estimate assumes that subsidence will parallel the rate of underground coal production and that no new subsidence control measures are adopted to mitigate subsidence occurrence. PMID:540617

Scheduling of House Development Projects with CPM and PERT Method for Time Efficiency (Case Study: House Type 36)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kholil, Muhammad; Nurul Alfa, Bonitasari; Hariadi, Madjumsyah

2018-04-01

Network planning is one of the management techniques used to plan and control the implementation of a project, which shows the relationship between activities. The objective of this research is to arrange network planning on house construction project on CV. XYZ and to know the role of network planning in increasing the efficiency of time so that can be obtained the optimal project completion period. This research uses descriptive method, where the data collected by direct observation to the company, interview, and literature study. The result of this research is optimal time planning in project work. Based on the results of the research, it can be concluded that the use of the both methods in scheduling of house construction project gives very significant effect on the completion time of the project. The company’s CPM (Critical Path Method) method can complete the project with 131 days, PERT (Program Evaluation Review and Technique) Method takes 136 days. Based on PERT calculation obtained Z = -0.66 or 0,2546 (from normal distribution table), and also obtained the value of probability or probability is 74,54%. This means that the possibility of house construction project activities can be completed on time is high enough. While without using both methods the project completion time takes 173 days. So using the CPM method, the company can save time up to 42 days and has time efficiency by using network planning.

Long Range Facilities Master Plan: 1986-2000, San Diego Unified School District.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blair, Billie; And Others

The Long-Range Facilities Master Plan presents solution strategies and financing methods for accommodating a projected student enrollment increase of 45,000 between 1986 and 2000. This increase, plus limited financial resources, school use studies, and recent legislation, necessitated the plan. The issues include housing students, facility…

Student Content Knowledge Increases after Participation in a Hands-on Biotechnology Intervention

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bigler, Amber M.; Hanegan, Nikki L.

2011-01-01

Implementing biotechnology education through hands-on teaching methods should be considered by secondary biology teachers. This study is an experimental research design to examine increased student content knowledge in biotechnology after a hands-on biotechnology intervention. The teachers from both school groups participated in, Project Crawfish,…

Toward a Pedagogy of Hospitality: Empathy, Literature, and Community Engagement

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stratman, Jake

2013-01-01

According to a recent study in "Personality and Social Psychology Review," empathy is on the decline among college students. How might academic courses invite students to increase empathic behaviors? Additionally, how might service-learning projects aid academic course objectives to help students increase empathic behavior? To explore…

TV News Analysis Project Motivates Broadcast Class.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Smith, James R.

1980-01-01

Describes the use of content analysis by a journalism class in studying television news. Indicates that the method is flexible, generates familiarity with quantitative approaches to the analysis of broadcast journalism, can result in increased awareness of the complexity of the broadcast news medium, and increases student motivation. (TJ)

Impacts of climate change on paddy rice yield in a temperate climate.

PubMed

Kim, Han-Yong; Ko, Jonghan; Kang, Suchel; Tenhunen, John

2013-02-01

The crop simulation model is a suitable tool for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change on crop production and on the environment. This study investigates the effects of climate change on paddy rice production in the temperate climate regions under the East Asian monsoon system using the CERES-Rice 4.0 crop simulation model. This model was first calibrated and validated for crop production under elevated CO2 and various temperature conditions. Data were obtained from experiments performed using a temperature gradient field chamber (TGFC) with a CO2 enrichment system installed at Chonnam National University in Gwangju, Korea in 2009 and 2010. Based on the empirical calibration and validation, the model was applied to deliver a simulated forecast of paddy rice production for the region, as well as for the other Japonica rice growing regions in East Asia, projecting for years 2050 and 2100. In these climate change projection simulations in Gwangju, Korea, the yield increases (+12.6 and + 22.0%) due to CO2 elevation were adjusted according to temperature increases showing variation dependent upon the cultivars, which resulted in significant yield decreases (-22.1% and -35.0%). The projected yields were determined to increase as latitude increases due to reduced temperature effects, showing the highest increase for any of the study locations (+24%) in Harbin, China. It appears that the potential negative impact on crop production may be mediated by appropriate cultivar selection and cultivation changes such as alteration of the planting date. Results reported in this study using the CERES-Rice 4.0 model demonstrate the promising potential for its further application in simulating the impacts of climate change on rice production from a local to a regional scale under the monsoon climate system. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Drought offset ecological restoration program-induced increase in vegetation activity in the Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region, China.

PubMed

Wu, Zhitao; Wu, Jianjun; He, Bin; Liu, Jinghui; Wang, Qianfeng; Zhang, Hong; Liu, Yong

2014-10-21

To improve the ecological conditions, the Chinese government adopted six large-scale ecological restoration programs including 'Three-North Shelterbelt Project', "Grain for Green Project" and "Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Control Project". Meanwhile, these ecologically vulnerable areas have experienced frequent droughts. However, little attention has been paid to the impact of drought on the effectiveness of these programs. Taking Beijing-Tianjin Sand Source Region (BTSSR) as study area, we investigated the role of droughts and ecological restoration program on trends of vegetation activities and to address the question of a possible "drought signal" in assessing effectiveness of ecological restoration program. The results demonstrate the following: (1) Vegetation activity increased in the BTSSR during 2000-2010, with 58.44% of the study area showing an increased NDVI, of which 11.80% had a significant increase at 0.95 confidential level. The decreasing NDVI trends were mainly concentrated in a southwest-to-northeast strip in the study area. (2) Drought was the main driving force for a decreasing trend of vegetation activity in the southwest-to-northeast regions of the BTSSR at the regional and spatial scales. Summer droughts in 2007 and 2009 contributed to the decreasing trend in NDVI. The severe and extreme droughts in summer reduced the NDVI by approximately 13.06% and 23.55%, respectively. (3) The residual analysis result showed that human activities, particularly the ecological restoration programs, have a positive impact on vegetation change. Hence, the decreasing trends in the southwest-to-northeast regions of the BTSSR cannot be explained by the improper ecological restoration program and is partly explained by droughts, especially summer droughts. Therefore, drought offset the ecological restoration program-induced increase in vegetation activity in the BTSSR.

Phosphorus Management in Crop Production

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

World population is projected to increase to about 9 Billion people by 2050. To feed the increasing world population, it is projected that global food supply should be increased by about 60-70% by 2050. Increase in food production could be achieved by improving yield per unit land area, increase lan...

The net effects of the Project NetWork return-to-work case management experiment on participant earnings, benefit receipt, and other outcomes.

PubMed

Kornfeld, R; Rupp, K

2000-01-01

The Social Security Administration (SSA) initiated Project NetWork in 1991 to test case management as a means of promoting employment among persons with disabilities. The demonstration, which targeted Social Security Disability Insurance (DI) beneficiaries and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) applicants and recipients, offered intensive outreach, work-incentive waivers, and case management/referral services. Participation in Project NetWork was voluntary. Volunteers were randomly assigned to the "treatment" group or the "control" group. Those assigned to the treatment group met individually with a case or referral manager who arranged for rehabilitation and employment services, helped clients develop an individual employment plan, and provided direct employment counseling services. Volunteers assigned to the control group could not receive services from Project NetWork but remained eligible for any employment assistance already available in their communities. For both treatment and control groups, the demonstration waived specific DI and SSI program rules considered to be work disincentives. The experimental impact study thus measures the incremental effects of case and referral management services. The eight demonstration sites were successful in implementing the experimental design roughly as planned. Project NetWork staff were able to recruit large numbers of participants and to provide rehabilitation and employment services on a substantial scale. Most of the sites easily reached their enrollment targets and were able to attract volunteers with demographic characteristics similar to those of the entire SSI and DI caseload and a broad range of moderate and severe disabilities. However, by many measures, volunteers were generally more "work-ready" than project eligible in the demonstration areas who did not volunteer to receive NetWork services. Project NetWork case management increased average annual earnings by $220 per year over the first 2 years following random assignment. This statistically significant impact, an approximate 11-percent increase in earnings, is based on administrative data on earnings. For about 70 percent of sample members, a third year of followup data was available. For this limited sample, the estimated effect of Project NetWork on annual earnings declined to roughly zero in the third followup year. The findings suggest that the increase in earnings may have been short-lived and may have disappeared by the time Project NetWork services ended. Project NetWork did not reduce reliance on SSI or DI benefits by statistically significant amounts over the 30-42 month followup period. The services provided by Project NetWork thus did not reduce overall SSI and DI caseloads or benefits by substantial amounts, especially given that only about 5 percent of the eligible caseload volunteered to participate in Project NetWork. Project NetWork produced modest net benefits to persons with disabilities and net costs to taxpayers. Persons with disabilities gained mainly because the increases in their earnings easily outweighed the small (if any) reduction in average SSI and DI benefits. For SSA and the federal government as a whole, the costs of Project NetWork were not sufficiently offset by increases in tax receipts resulting from increased earnings or reductions in average SSI and DI benefits. The modest net benefits of Project NetWork to persons with disabilities are encouraging. How such benefits of an experimental intervention should be weighed against costs of taxpayers depends on value judgments of policymakers. Because different case management projects involve different kinds of services, these results cannot be directly generalized to other case management interventions. They are nevertheless instructive for planning new initiatives. Combining case and referral management services with various other interventions, such as longer term financial support for work or altered provider incentives, could produc

Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Taylor, Steve W.; Candau, Jean-Noël; Stralberg, Diana; Marshall, Ginny A.; Little, John M.; Flannigan, Mike D.

2017-02-01

In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating ‘spread days’ to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada’s forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50% increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation.

The Link between Potassium and Mild Cognitive Impairment in Mexican-Americans

PubMed Central

Vintimilla, Raul M.; Large, Stephanie E.; Gamboa, Adriana; Rohlfing, Geoffrey D.; O'Jile, Judith R.; Hall, James R.; O'Bryant, Sid E.; Johnson, Leigh A.

2018-01-01

Background Recent evidence suggests that increasing dietary intake of minerals reduces the risk of dementia. This study aimed to examine the relationship between potassium and diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in a sample of older Mexican-Americans from rural and urban populations. Methods The sample was formed of a total of 139 participants with MCI and 371 normal controls from two independent cohorts: a rural cohort (Facing Rural Obstacles to Healthcare Now through Intervention, Education and Research [Project FRONTIER]) and an urban cohort (the Health and Aging Brain among Latino Elders [HABLE] study). Serum electrolytes examined were sodium and potassium. Age and education were entered in the model as covariates. Results Across both cohorts, the Project FRONTIER (OR = 3.1; p = 0.01) and the HABLE Project (OR = 2.0; p = 0.04), the results indicated that serum potassium levels significantly increased the risk of diagnosis of MCI. Conclusion Our finding suggested a link between serum potassium levels and a diagnosis of MCI in Mexican-Americans. The results of this study support a previous research which has suggested that the risk factors for MCI may vary by ethnicity. PMID:29805381

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Case Studies

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Factors that affect public-supply water use in Florida, with a section on projected water use to the year 2020

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marella, R.L.

1992-01-01

Public-supply water use in Florida increased 242 percent between 1960 and 1987 from 530 Mgal/d (million gallons per day) to 1,811 Mgal/d. This change is primarily a result of increases in population and tourism since 1960. Public-supply utilities provide water to a variety of users. In 1985, 71 percent of the water used for public supply was delivered for residential uses, 15 percent for commercial uses, 9 percent for industrial uses, and the remaining 5 percent for public use or other uses. Residential use of public-supply water in Florida has increased nearly 280 Mgal/d, but has decreased in the proportion of total deliveries from 80 to 71 percent between 1975 and 1985. This trend resulted from increased tourism and related commercial services associated with population and visitors. One of several factors that influences public-supply water use in Florida is the increase in resident population, which increased from 4.95 million in 1960 to more than 12.0 million in 1987. Additionally, Florida's nonresident population increased from 18.8 million visitors in 1977, to 34.1 million visitors in 1987, and the part of Florida?s population that relies on public-supply water increased from 68 percent in 1960, to 86 percent in 1987. The public supply per capita use was multiplied by the projected populations for each county for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020 to forecast public-supply water use. Using medium projections, Florida?s population is expected to increase to nearly 16 million in the year 2000, to 18 million in the year 2010, and to almost 20 million in the year 2020, of which an estimated 13.5 million people will be supplied water from public-supply water systems in the year 2000, 15 million in 2010, and nearly 17 million by the year 2020. Public-supply water use is expected to increase to a projected (medium) 2,310 Mgal/d in the year 2000, 2,610 Mgal/d in the year 2010, and 2,890 Mgal/d in the year 2020. If the population exceeds the medium projections for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020, high projections estimate public-supply water use could reach 2,570 Mgal/d in 2000, 3,210 Mgal/d in 2010, and 3,900 Mgal/d in 2020. Palm Beach County is projected to have the largest increase in public-supply water use, from 168 Mgal/d used in 1987 to a medium projected 338 Mgal/d for 2020. Dade County?s public-supply water use is projected (medium) to increase to nearly 471 Mgal/d for 2020, the largest county use in Florida. Water demand options, such as conservation, restrictions, education programs, leak detection and repair programs, and more realistic pricing practices can reduce the demand for freshwater. Increased use of alternative sources of water, such as reclaimed wastewater and desalinated seawater also can reduce the demand for freshwater. Because the water demand projections in this report are based primarily on population projections, they should represent an upper limit of actual future demand if the population projections prove sound. Any additional water demand options implemented in the future at the State, county, or public-supply facility level may significantly reduce per capita use and result in public-supply use less than projected in this report.

Projecting community changes in hazard exposure to support long-term risk reduction: A case study of tsunami hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Wood, Nathan J.; Soulard, Christopher E.; Wilson, Tamara

2017-01-01

Tsunamis have the potential to cause considerable damage to communities along the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline. As coastal communities expand over time, the potential societal impact of tsunami inundation changes. To understand how community exposure to tsunami hazards may change in coming decades, we projected future development (i.e. urban, residential, and rural), households, and residents over a 50-year period (2011–2061) along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coasts. We created a spatially explicit, land use/land cover, state-and-transition simulation model to project future developed land use based on historical development trends. We then compared our development projection results to tsunami-hazard zones associated with a Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ) earthquake. Changes in tsunami-hazard exposure by 2061 were estimated for 50 incorporated cities, 7 tribal reservations, and 17 counties relative to current (2011) estimates. Across the region, 2061 population exposure in tsunami-hazard zones was projected to increase by 3880 households and 6940 residents. The top ten communities with highest population exposure to CSZ-related tsunamis in 2011 are projected to remain the areas with the highest population exposure by 2061. The largest net population increases in tsunami-hazard zones were projected in the unincorporated portions of several counties, including Skagit, Coos, and Humboldt. Land-change simulation modeling of projected future development serves as an exploratory tool aimed at helping local governments understand the hazard-exposure implications of community growth and to include this knowledge in risk-reduction planning.

Focus on Asian Studies. Number 21.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ohio State Univ., Columbus. Coll. of Education.

The purpose of this quarterly publication from the Asian Studies Project is to promote increased attention to Asian Studies in elementary and secondary education. This issue of the newsletter contains introductory comment on current affairs as well as two main articles: "On the Study of World Cultures" by Dr. Kishorkant Yajnik of India…

Divergence of ecosystem services in U.S. National Forests and Grasslands under a changing climate.

PubMed

Duan, Kai; Sun, Ge; Sun, Shanlei; Caldwell, Peter V; Cohen, Erika C; McNulty, Steven G; Aldridge, Heather D; Zhang, Yang

2016-04-21

The 170 National Forests and Grasslands (NFs) in the conterminous United States are public lands that provide important ecosystem services such as clean water and timber supply to the American people. This study investigates the potential impacts of climate change on two key ecosystem functions (i.e., water yield and ecosystem productivity) using the most recent climate projections derived from 20 Global Climate Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5). We find that future climate change may result in a significant reduction in water yield but an increase in ecosystem productivity in NFs. On average, gross ecosystem productivity is projected to increase by 76 ~ 229 g C m(-2) yr(-1) (8% ~ 24%) while water yield is projected to decrease by 18 ~ 31 mm yr(-1) (4% ~ 7%) by 2100 as a result of the combination of increased air temperature (+1.8 ~ +5.2 °C) and precipitation (+17 ~ +51 mm yr(-1)). The notable divergence in ecosystem services of water supply and carbon sequestration is expected to intensify under higher greenhouse gas emission and associated climate change in the future, posing greater challenges to managing NFs for both ecosystem services.

Increasing quality and managing complexity in neuroinformatics software development with continuous integration.

PubMed

Zaytsev, Yury V; Morrison, Abigail

2012-01-01

High quality neuroscience research requires accurate, reliable and well maintained neuroinformatics applications. As software projects become larger, offering more functionality and developing a denser web of interdependence between their component parts, we need more sophisticated methods to manage their complexity. If complexity is allowed to get out of hand, either the quality of the software or the speed of development suffer, and in many cases both. To address this issue, here we develop a scalable, low-cost and open source solution for continuous integration (CI), a technique which ensures the quality of changes to the code base during the development procedure, rather than relying on a pre-release integration phase. We demonstrate that a CI-based workflow, due to rapid feedback about code integration problems and tracking of code health measures, enabled substantial increases in productivity for a major neuroinformatics project and additional benefits for three further projects. Beyond the scope of the current study, we identify multiple areas in which CI can be employed to further increase the quality of neuroinformatics projects by improving development practices and incorporating appropriate development tools. Finally, we discuss what measures can be taken to lower the barrier for developers of neuroinformatics applications to adopt this useful technique.

Noradrenaline Triggers GABAA Inhibition of Bed Nucleus of the Stria Terminalis Neurons Projecting to the Ventral Tegmental Area

PubMed Central

Dumont, Éric C.; Williams, John T.

2014-01-01

The lateral part of the ventral bed nucleus of the stria terminalis (vlBNST) is a critical site for the antiaversive effects of noradrenergic drugs during opioid withdrawal. The objective of the present study is to identify the cellular action(s) of noradrenaline in the vlBNST after withdrawal from a 5 d treatment with morphine. The vlBNST is a heterogeneous cell group with multiple efferent projections. Therefore, neurons projecting to the midbrain were identified by retrograde transport of fluorescent microspheres injected in the ventral tegmental area (VTA). Whole-cell voltage clamp recordings of these neurons and of those sharing physiological properties were done in brain slices. Noradrenaline activated α1-adrenergic receptors to increase GABAA-IPSC frequency. Noradrenaline produced a similar increase in GABAA-IPSCs during acute opioid withdrawal, but this increase resulted from activation of β-adrenergic receptors, adenylyl cyclase, and protein kinase A, as well as α1-adrenergic receptors. Given that neurons in the vlBNST send an excitatory projection to the VTA, noradrenaline may reduce excitatory drive to mesolimbic dopamine cells. This mechanism might contribute to the withdrawal-induced inhibition of dopamine neurons and explain how noradrenergic drugs microinjected into the vlBNST reduce aversive aspects of opioid withdrawal. PMID:15385602

Increasing quality and managing complexity in neuroinformatics software development with continuous integration

PubMed Central

Zaytsev, Yury V.; Morrison, Abigail

2013-01-01

High quality neuroscience research requires accurate, reliable and well maintained neuroinformatics applications. As software projects become larger, offering more functionality and developing a denser web of interdependence between their component parts, we need more sophisticated methods to manage their complexity. If complexity is allowed to get out of hand, either the quality of the software or the speed of development suffer, and in many cases both. To address this issue, here we develop a scalable, low-cost and open source solution for continuous integration (CI), a technique which ensures the quality of changes to the code base during the development procedure, rather than relying on a pre-release integration phase. We demonstrate that a CI-based workflow, due to rapid feedback about code integration problems and tracking of code health measures, enabled substantial increases in productivity for a major neuroinformatics project and additional benefits for three further projects. Beyond the scope of the current study, we identify multiple areas in which CI can be employed to further increase the quality of neuroinformatics projects by improving development practices and incorporating appropriate development tools. Finally, we discuss what measures can be taken to lower the barrier for developers of neuroinformatics applications to adopt this useful technique. PMID:23316158

Forecasting future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Syria.

PubMed

Al Ali, Radwan; Mzayek, Fawaz; Rastam, Samer; M Fouad, Fouad; O'Flaherty, Martin; Capewell, Simon; Maziak, Wasim

2013-05-25

Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is increasingly becoming a major public health problem worldwide. Estimating the future burden of diabetes is instrumental to guide the public health response to the epidemic. This study aims to project the prevalence of T2DM among adults in Syria over the period 2003-2022 by applying a modelling approach to the country's own data. Future prevalence of T2DM in Syria was estimated among adults aged 25 years and older for the period 2003-2022 using the IMPACT Diabetes Model (a discrete-state Markov model). According to our model, the prevalence of T2DM in Syria is projected to double in the period between 2003 and 2022 (from 10% to 21%). The projected increase in T2DM prevalence is higher in men (148%) than in women (93%). The increase in prevalence of T2DM is expected to be most marked in people younger than 55 years especially the 25-34 years age group. The future projections of T2DM in Syria put it amongst countries with the highest levels of T2DM worldwide. It is estimated that by 2022 approximately a fifth of the Syrian population aged 25 years and older will have T2DM.

Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Laufkötter, C.; Vogt, M.; Gruber, N.; Aita-Noguchi, M.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Buitenhuis, E.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J.; Hashioka, T.; Hauck, J.; Hirata, T.; John, J.; Le Quéré, C.; Lima, I. D.; Nakano, H.; Seferian, R.; Totterdell, I.; Vichi, M.; Völker, C.

2015-12-01

Past model studies have projected a global decrease in marine net primary production (NPP) over the 21st century, but these studies focused on the multi-model mean rather than on the large inter-model differences. Here, we analyze model-simulated changes in NPP for the 21st century under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. We use a suite of nine coupled carbon-climate Earth system models with embedded marine ecosystem models and focus on the spread between the different models and the underlying reasons. Globally, NPP decreases in five out of the nine models over the course of the 21st century, while three show no significant trend and one even simulates an increase. The largest model spread occurs in the low latitudes (between 30° S and 30° N), with individual models simulating relative changes between -25 and +40 %. Of the seven models diagnosing a net decrease in NPP in the low latitudes, only three simulate this to be a consequence of the classical interpretation, i.e., a stronger nutrient limitation due to increased stratification leading to reduced phytoplankton growth. In the other four, warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the stronger nutrient limitation. However, temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in phytoplankton biomass and reduce NPP despite higher growth rates. One model projects a strong increase in NPP in the low latitudes, caused by an intensification of the microbial loop, while NPP in the remaining model changes by less than 0.5 %. While models consistently project increases NPP in the Southern Ocean, the regional inter-model range is also very substantial. In most models, this increase in NPP is driven by temperature, but it is also modulated by changes in light, macronutrients and iron as well as grazing. Overall, current projections of future changes in global marine NPP are subject to large uncertainties and necessitate a dedicated and sustained effort to improve the models and the concepts and data that guide their development.

Water use trends and demand projections in the Northwest Florida Water Management District

USGS Publications Warehouse

Marella, R.L.; Mokray, M.F.; Hallock-Solomon, Michael

1998-01-01

The Northwest Florida Water Management District is located in the western panhandle of Florida and encompasses about 11,200 square miles. In 1995, the District had an estimated population of 1.13 million, an increase of about 47 percent from the 1975 population of 0.77 million. Over 50 percent of the resident population lives within 10 miles of the coast. In addition, hundreds of thousands of visitors come to the coastal areas of the panhandle during the summer months for recreation or vacation purposes. Water withdrawn to meet demands for public supply, domestic self-supplied, commercial-industrial, agricultural irrigation, and recreational irrigation purposes in the District increased 18 percent (52 million gallons per day) between 1970 and 1995. The greatest increases were for public supply and domestic self-supplied (99 percent increase) and for agricultural irrigation (60 percent increase) between 1970 and 1995. In 1995, approximately 70 percent of the water withdrawn was from ground-water sources, with the majority of this from the Floridan aquifer system. The increasing water demands have affected water levels in the Floridan aquifer system, especially along the coastal areas. The Northwest Florida Water Management District is mandated under the Florida Statutes (Chapter 373) to protect and manage the water resources in this area of the State. The mandate requires that current and future water demands be met, while water resources and water-dependent natural systems are sustained. For this project, curve fitting and extrapolation were used to project most of the variables (population, population served by public supply, and water use) to the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. This mathematical method involves fitting a curve to historical population or water-use data and then extending this curve to arrive at future values. The population within the region is projected to reach 1,596,888 by the year 2020, an increase of 41 percent between 1995 and 2020. Most of the population in this region will continue to reside in the urban areas of Pensacola and Tallahassee, and along the coastal areas. The population served by public water supply is projected to reach 1,353,836 by the year 2020, an increase of nearly 46 percent between 1995 and 2020. Total water demand for the Northwest Florida Water Management District is projected to reach 940.2 million gallons per day in 2000, 1,003.1 million gallons per day in 2010, and 1,059.1 million gallons per day in 2020. Excluding water withdrawn for power generation from these totals, water demands will increase 34 percent between 1995 and 2020, and 58 percent between 1970 and 2020. Specifically, public supply demands are projected to increase 74.1 million gallons per day (53 percent) and domestic self-supplied and small public supply systems demands are projected to increase 9.1 million gallons per day (28 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Commercial- industrial self-supplied demands are projected to increase about 16.9 million gallons per day (13 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Agricultural and recreational irrigation demands combined are projected to increase 16.8 million gallons per day (48 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Water demands for power generation are projected to increase about 53.9 million gallons per day (10 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Although power generation water use shows a projected increase during this time, plant capacities are not expected to change dramatically.

Groundwater levels, trends, and relations to pumping in the Bureau of Reclamation Klamath Project, Oregon and California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gannett, Marshall W.; Breen, Katherine H.

2015-07-28

The use of groundwater to supplement surface-water supplies for the Bureau of Reclamation Klamath Project in the upper Klamath Basin of Oregon and California markedly increased between 2000 and 2014. Pre-2001 groundwater pumping in the area where most of this increase occurred is estimated to have been about 28,600 acre-feet per year. Subsequent supplemental pumping rates have been as high as 128,740 acre-feet per year. During this period of increased pumping, groundwater levels in and around the Bureau of Reclamation Klamath Project have declined by about 20-25 feet. Water-level declines are largely due to the increased supplemental pumping, but other factors include increased pumping adjacent to the Klamath Project and drying climate conditions. This report summarizes the distribution and magnitude of supplemental groundwater pumping and groundwater-level declines, and characterizes the relation between the stress and response in subareas of the Klamath Project to aid decision makers in developing groundwater-management strategies.

Projections of West African summer monsoon rainfall extremes from two CORDEX models

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Akinsanola, A. A.; Zhou, Wen

2018-05-01

Global warming has a profound impact on the vulnerable environment of West Africa; hence, robust climate projection, especially of rainfall extremes, is quite important. Based on two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios, projected changes in extreme summer rainfall events over West Africa were investigated using data from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment models. Eight (8) extreme rainfall indices (CDD, CWD, r10mm, r20mm, PRCPTOT, R95pTOT, rx5day, and sdii) defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices were used in the study. The performance of the regional climate model (RCM) simulations was validated by comparing with GPCP and TRMM observation data sets. Results show that the RCMs reasonably reproduced the observed pattern of extreme rainfall over the region and further added significant value to the driven GCMs over some grids. Compared to the baseline period 1976-2005, future changes (2070-2099) in summer rainfall extremes under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios show statistically significant decreasing total rainfall (PRCPTOT), while consecutive dry days and extreme rainfall events (R95pTOT) are projected to increase significantly. There are obvious indications that simple rainfall intensity (sdii) will increase in the future. This does not amount to an increase in total rainfall but suggests a likelihood of greater intensity of rainfall events. Overall, our results project that West Africa may suffer more natural disasters such as droughts and floods in the future.

Resource Constrained Planning of Multiple Projects with Separable Activities

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fujii, Susumu; Morita, Hiroshi; Kanawa, Takuya

In this study we consider a resource constrained planning problem of multiple projects with separable activities. This problem provides a plan to process the activities considering a resource availability with time window. We propose a solution algorithm based on the branch and bound method to obtain the optimal solution minimizing the completion time of all projects. We develop three methods for improvement of computational efficiency, that is, to obtain initial solution with minimum slack time rule, to estimate lower bound considering both time and resource constraints and to introduce an equivalence relation for bounding operation. The effectiveness of the proposed methods is demonstrated by numerical examples. Especially as the number of planning projects increases, the average computational time and the number of searched nodes are reduced.

Biological and economic impact of stream alteration in the Virginia Piedmont

USGS Publications Warehouse

Whelan, James B.

1981-01-01

A 31 month (September 1974 - March 1977) study was conducted on warmwater streams located in the Roanoke Creek watershed of the Piedmont Region of Virginia. The purpose of the study was to determine the effects of stream channelization on the aquatic/riparian wildlife resource and agricultural land-use patterns associated with the altered streams. Three streams, which were channelized 3, 6, and 10 years prior to initiation of the study, and teo unaltered streams, were selected as representative streams for the study. Recently channelized streams lacked overstory cover but has an abundance of herbaceous and small woody plany cover, Conversely, control streams had significantly larger percentages of trees over 46 m tall. Plant species diversity, foliage height diversity, and evenness diversity increased as age since channelization increased. No major differences in water quality parameters were found for either channelized or control streams, although channelized streams had greater deposits of sand and lesser amount of rock, rubble, and gravel. These changes in substrate composition did not significantly modify actual stream flow rates. Fish species composition and species diversity among channelized and unchannelized streams were only slightly different, with most of the differences probably attributable to strays from adjacent habitats, However, evenness diversity for fish communities was lower in channelized streams. The benthic population showed greater changes than did the fish populations with an increase in Chironominae tolerant of unstable sand substrates in channelized streams. Evenness diversity of benthic populations was also higher and showed more consistency in the control stream than in channelized streams. Evenness diversity of benthic communities in control stream averaged between 0.5 to 0.6 and was quite consistent; whereas, the average in the two youngest channelized streams was 0.3 to 0.4. These data seem to indicate decreased stability of the biota in altered streams. In general, benthic macroinvertabrate and fish community parameters collected from channelized streams located 1200 m below a reservoir were either comparable to, or intermediate between, upstream (unchannelized) and reservoir tailwater values. The shallow surface discharge impoundments associated with channelized streams appeared to have a highly localized impact on the downstream benthic marcoinvertabrate and fish communities. During winter, bird species diversity (BSD) among channelized stream sites was not significantly different. During the breeding season, species richness (number of breeding species) and BSD increased with age since channelization. Breeding bird densities were 6.2 pairs/ha in the most recent (3 yr) channelized site and 13.3 pairs/ha on the control streams. Bird diversity and density, particularly for Parulids (warblers), during the breeding season were reduced significantly by removal of tree and shrub layers along channelized streams. No significant differences were found among study sites for either total number of small mammals or their species diversity indices; although, there was a trend toward increasing diversity as age since channelization increased. Smaller differences in species diversity values for small mammals on channelized sites than for birds suggests that small mammal populations require less time for recovery following channelization than avian communities. When streams are channelized: 1) vegetation should be removed from only one side of the stream, with minimal disturbance of top-soil; followed by plantings of herbaceous and woody vegetation, 2) hedgrow plantings should be maintained between agricultural fields and the stream for bank stabilization, 3) dead snags and large trees should be left for birds, 4) all channelization projects should be designed according to the most recent guidelines recommended by the SCS and other resources agencies. In 1958, the Roanoke County Watershed Work Plan projected annual costs of the structured measures (mainly reservoirs and downstream channelization) to be $79,897 and the average annual monetary benefits to be $111,103. With this favorable benefit/cost ration of 1.4, work began in 1960. In 1970, the annual capital cost was 60,780 and operations/maintenance costs were 10,402, or a total annual project cost of $71, 182. High and low values of annual benefits from agricultural income, water supply, recreation, and non-agricultural flood damage were determined for 1970 and compared to annual project cost. The benefit/cost ratio obtained was between 0.25 and 0.58, considerably lower than the 1.4 estimate of the 1958. work plan. This unsatisfactory ratio for the project was due mainly to the failure of the project to encourage large scale cropping of bottomland area. Future projects should be planned with 1) a greater recognition of constraints on farm operator behavior which affect land use change, 2) conservative projection for land use changes in area where agriculture ids in overall decline, 3) increased use of sensitivity analysis to examine the consequences for project economic justification of alternative land use change projections.

Future Projections of Heating and Cooling Degree Days in a Changing Climate of Turkey

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

An, Nazan; Turp, M. Tufan; Kurnaz, M. Levent

2017-04-01

The use of the degree days method is the most practical way to forsee the future changes in energy demand due to climate change-induced heating and cooling. Since the temperatures in Turkey vary considerably on a regional basis, the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065 have been respectively examined with reference to the period of 1981-2000, taking the mean temperature values into consideration in order to make the most accurate estimation. The future projections were applied based on the RCP8.5 (BAU-business as usual case) emission scenario using regional climate model called RegCM. According to the result of the study, it is projected that the numbers of heating degree days (HDDs) will decrease in the whole country, whereas the frequency of cooling degree days(CDDs) will increase in general. This decrease in HDDs and the increase in CDDs will be higher in the period of 2046-2065 than in the period of 2016-2035. These findings are also consistent with the expectation of temperature increases over these regions for the future period, obtained from the studies of climate modeling for the Mediterranean Basin and Turkey as well. Acknowledgement: This research has been supported by Bogazici University Research Fund Grant Number 12220.

Reducing construction waste: A study of urban infrastructure projects.

PubMed

de Magalhães, Ruane Fernandes; Danilevicz, Ângela de Moura Ferreira; Saurin, Tarcisio Abreu

2017-09-01

The construction industry is well-known for producing waste detrimental to the environment, and its impacts have increased with the development process of cities. Although there are several studies focused on the environmental impact of residential and commercial buildings, less knowledge is available regarding decreasing construction waste (CW) generation in urban infrastructure projects. This study presents best practices to reduce waste in the said projects, stressing the role of decision-making in the design stage and the effective management of construction processes in public sector. The best practices were identified from literature review, document analysis in 14 projects of urban infrastructure, and both qualitative and quantitative survey with 18 experts (architects and engineers) playing different roles on those projects. The contributions of these research are: (i) the identification of the main building techniques related to the urban design typologies analyzed; (ii) the identification of cause-effect relationships between the design choices and the CW generation diagnosis; (iii) the proposal of a checklist to support the decision-making process, that can be used as a control and evaluation instrument when developing urban infrastructure designs, focused on the construction waste minimization (CWM). Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incorporating adaptive responses into future projections of coral bleaching.

PubMed

Logan, Cheryl A; Dunne, John P; Eakin, C Mark; Donner, Simon D

2014-01-01

Climate warming threatens to increase mass coral bleaching events, and several studies have projected the demise of tropical coral reefs this century. However, recent evidence indicates corals may be able to respond to thermal stress though adaptive processes (e.g., genetic adaptation, acclimatization, and symbiont shuffling). How these mechanisms might influence warming-induced bleaching remains largely unknown. This study compared how different adaptive processes could affect coral bleaching projections. We used the latest bias-corrected global sea surface temperature (SST) output from the NOAA/GFDL Earth System Model 2 (ESM2M) for the preindustrial period through 2100 to project coral bleaching trajectories. Initial results showed that, in the absence of adaptive processes, application of a preindustrial climatology to the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method overpredicts the present-day bleaching frequency. This suggests that corals may have already responded adaptively to some warming over the industrial period. We then modified the prediction method so that the bleaching threshold either permanently increased in response to thermal history (e.g., simulating directional genetic selection) or temporarily increased for 2-10 years in response to a bleaching event (e.g., simulating symbiont shuffling). A bleaching threshold that changes relative to the preceding 60 years of thermal history reduced the frequency of mass bleaching events by 20-80% compared with the 'no adaptive response' prediction model by 2100, depending on the emissions scenario. When both types of adaptive responses were applied, up to 14% more reef cells avoided high-frequency bleaching by 2100. However, temporary increases in bleaching thresholds alone only delayed the occurrence of high-frequency bleaching by ca. 10 years in all but the lowest emissions scenario. Future research should test the rate and limit of different adaptive responses for coral species across latitudes and ocean basins to determine if and how much corals can respond to increasing thermal stress.

Peer-based education and the integration of HIV and Sexual and Reproductive Health services for young people in Vietnam: evidence from a project evaluation.

PubMed

Ngo, Anh D; Ha, Toan H; Rule, John; Dang, Chinh V

2013-01-01

This paper reports changes in behavioral outcomes related to the use of HIV testing service of a project that employed peer-based education strategies and integration of HIV voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) and Sexual and Reproductive Health (SRH) services targeting young people aged 15-24 across 5 provinces in Vietnam. A pre-test/post-test, non-experimental evaluation design was used. Data were collected from cross-sectional surveys of youth and client exit interviews at project supported SRH clinics conducted at baseline and again at 24 months following implementation. The baseline samples consisted of 813 youth and 399 exit clients. The end line samples included 501 youths and 399 exit clients. Z test was used to assess changes in behavioral outcomes. Results show that there was a significant increase (p<0.05) in the percentage of youth who wanted to obtain a HIV test (from 33% to 51%), who had ever had a test (from 7.5% to 15%), and who had a repeat test in the last 12 months (from 54.5% to 67.5%). Exit client interviews found a nearly five-fold increase in the percentage of clients seeking HIV VCT in their current visit (5.0% vs. 24.5%) and almost two-fold increase in the percentage of those having their last test at a project supported clinic (9.3% vs. 17.8%). There were also positive changes in some aspects of youth HIV/AIDS knowledge, attitudes, and risk perceptions. This study provides preliminary evidence regarding the benefits of the integration of HIV VCT-SRH services in terms of increased access to HIV services and testing in Vietnam. Benefits of peer-based education regarding increased HIV knowledge were also identified. Further investigations, including experimental studies with assessment of health outcomes and the uptake of HIV testing services, are required to better elucidate the effectiveness and challenges of this intervention model in Vietnam.

Projected Temperature-Related Years of Life Lost From Stroke Due To Global Warming in a Temperate Climate City, Asia: Disease Burden Caused by Future Climate Change.

PubMed

Li, Guoxing; Guo, Qun; Liu, Yang; Li, Yixue; Pan, Xiaochuan

2018-04-01

Global warming has attracted worldwide attention. Numerous studies have indicated that stroke is associated with temperature; however, few studies are available on the projections of the burden of stroke attributable to future climate change. We aimed to investigate the future trends of stroke years of life lost (YLL) associated with global warming. We collected death records to examine YLL in Tianjin, China, from 2006 to 2011. We fitted a standard time-series Poisson regression model after controlling for trends, day of the week, relative humidity, and air pollution. We estimated temperature-YLL associations with a distributed lag nonlinear model. These models were then applied to the local climate projections to estimate temperature-related YLL in the 2050s and 2070s. We projected temperature-related YLL from stroke in Tianjin under 19 global-scale climate models and 3 different greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results showed a slight decrease in YLL with percent decreases of 0.85%, 0.97%, and 1.02% in the 2050s and 0.94%, 1.02%, and 0.91% in the 2070s for the 3 scenarios, respectively. The increases in heat-related annual YLL and the decreases in cold-related YLL under the high emission scenario were the strongest. The monthly analysis showed that the most significant increase occurred in the summer months, particularly in August, with percent changes >150% in the 2050s and up to 300% in the 2070s. Future changes in climate are likely to lead to an increase in heat-related YLL, and this increase will not be offset by adaptation under both medium emission and high emission scenarios. Health protections from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold effects will also remain important. © 2018 American Heart Association, Inc.

Collaborative efforts are needed to ensure proper knowledge dissemination of telemedicine projects.

PubMed

Jakobsen, Neel Kolthoff; Jensen, Lena Sundby; Kayser, Lars

2014-09-01

Telemedicine is often seen as the solution to the challenge of providing health care for an increasing number of people with chronic conditions. Projects are often organised locally and based on the involvement of stakeholders with a wide range of backgrounds. It can be challenging to ensure that projects are based on previous experience and that they do not repeat previous studies. To better understand these challenges and current practice, we examined telemedicine projects funded in the 2008-2010 period to explore where, how and to what extent results from the projects were documented and disseminated. Public and private funds were contacted for information about telemedicine studies focusing on people residing in their homes. After an initial screening of titles and abstracts, 19 projects were identified. The managers of the projects were contacted and information about project results and dissemination were obtained. More than half of all projects were disseminated to professionals as well as to the public and used two-way communication. However, it was generally difficult to obtain an overview of the projects due to dynamic changes in names and scopes. We propose that the funding authorities require designs comprising proper evaluation models that will subsequently allow the investigators to publish their findings. Furthermore, a dissemination plan comprising both peers and other professions should be made mandatory. The investigators should ensure proper documentation and dissemination of changes both during and after the projects in order to ensure transparency, and national or international organisations should establish a database with relevant data fields. not relevant. not relevant.

Estonian greenhouse gas emissions inventory report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Punning, J.M.; Ilomets, M.; Karindi, A.

1996-07-01

It is widely accepted that the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere due to human activities would result in warming of the Earth`s surface. To examine this effect and better understand how the GHG increase in the atmosphere might change the climate in the future, how ecosystems and societies in different regions of the World should adapt to these changes, what must policymakers do for the mitigation of that effect, the worldwide project within the Framework Convention on Climate Change was generated by the initiative of United Nations. Estonia is one of more than 150 countries, which signedmore » the Framework Convention on Climate Change at the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development held in Rio de Janeiro in June 1992. In 1994 a new project, Estonian Country Study was initiated within the US Country Studies Program. The project will help to compile the GHG inventory for Estonia, find contemporary trends to investigate the impact of climate change on the Estonian ecosystems and economy and to formulate national strategies for Estonia addressing to global climate change.« less

Charging conditions research to increase the initial projected velocity at different initial charge temperatures

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ishchenko, Aleksandr; Burkin, Viktor; Kasimov, Vladimir; Samorokova, Nina; Zykova, Angelica; Diachkovskii, Alexei

2017-11-01

The problems of the defense industry occupy the most important place in the constantly developing modern world. The daily development of defense technology does not stop, nor do studies on internal ballistics. The scientists of the whole world are faced with the task of managing the main characteristics of a ballistic experiment. The main characteristics of the ballistic experiment are the maximum pressure in the combustion chamber Pmax and the projected velocity at the time of barrel leaving UM. During the work the combustion law of the new high-energy fuel was determined in a ballistic experiment for different initial temperatures. This combustion law was used for a parametric study of depending Pmax and UM from a powder charge mass and a traveling charge was carried out. The optimal conditions for loading were obtained for improving the initial velocity at pressures up to 600 MPa for different initial temperatures. In this paper, one of the most promising schemes of throwing is considered, as well as a method for increasing the muzzle velocity of a projected element to 3317 m/s.

Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particulate matter, and health impacts.

PubMed

Ebi, Kristie; McGregor, Glenn

2009-01-01

We review how climate change could affect future concentrations of tropospheric ozone and particulate matter (PM), and what changing concentrations could mean for population health, as well as studies projecting the impacts of climate change on air quality and the impacts of these changes on morbidity/mortality. Climate change could affect local to regional air quality through changes in chemical reaction rates, boundary layer heights that affect vertical mixing of pollutants, and changes in synoptic airflow patterns that govern pollutant transport. Sources of uncertainty are the degree of future climate change, future emissions of air pollutants and their precursors, and how population vulnerability may change in the future. Given the uncertainties, projections suggest that climate change will increase concentrations of tropospheric ozone, at least in high-income countries when precursor emissions are held constant, increasing morbidity/mortality. There are few projections for low- and middle-income countries. The evidence is less robust for PM, because few studies have been conducted. More research is needed to better understand the possible impacts of climate change on air pollution-related health impacts.

Cost of unintended pregnancy in Norway: a role for long-acting reversible contraception

PubMed Central

Henry, Nathaniel; Schlueter, Max; Lowin, Julia; Lekander, Ingrid; Filonenko, Anna; Trussell, James; Skjeldestad, Finn Egil

2015-01-01

Objectives The objective of this study was to quantify the cost burden of unintended pregnancies (UPs) in Norway, and to estimate the proportion of costs due to imperfect contraceptive adherence. Potential cost savings that could arise from increased uptake of long-acting reversible contraception (LARC) were also investigated. Methods An economic model was constructed to estimate the total number of UPs and associated costs in women aged 15–24 years. Adherence-related UP was estimated using ‘perfect use’ and ‘typical use’ contraceptive failure rates. Potential savings from increased use of LARC were projected by comparing current costs to projected costs following a 5% increase in LARC uptake. Results Total costs from UP in women aged 15–24 years were estimated to be 164 million Norwegian Kroner (NOK), of which 81.7% were projected to be due to imperfect contraceptive adherence. A 5% increase in LARC uptake was estimated to generate cost savings of NOK 7.2 million in this group. Conclusions The cost of UP in Norway is substantial, with a large proportion of this cost arising from imperfect contraceptive adherence. Increased LARC uptake may reduce the UP incidence and generate cost savings for both the health care payer and contraceptive user. PMID:25537792

Interactive effects of environmental change and management strategies on regional forest carbon emissions.

PubMed

Hudiburg, Tara W; Luyssaert, Sebastiaan; Thornton, Peter E; Law, Beverly E

2013-11-19

Climate mitigation activities in forests need to be quantified in terms of the long-term effects on forest carbon stocks, accumulation, and emissions. The impacts of future environmental change and bioenergy harvests on regional forest carbon storage have not been quantified. We conducted a comprehensive modeling study and life-cycle assessment of the impacts of projected changes in climate, CO2 concentration, and N deposition, and region-wide forest management policies on regional forest carbon fluxes. By 2100, if current management strategies continue, then the warming and CO2 fertilization effect in the given projections result in a 32-68% increase in net carbon uptake, overshadowing increased carbon emissions from projected increases in fire activity and other forest disturbance factors. To test the response to new harvesting strategies, repeated thinnings were applied in areas susceptible to fire to reduce mortality, and two clear-cut rotations were applied in productive forests to provide biomass for wood products and bioenergy. The management strategies examined here lead to long-term increased carbon emissions over current harvesting practices, although semiarid regions contribute little to the increase. The harvest rates were unsustainable. This comprehensive approach could serve as a foundation for regional place-based assessments of management effects on future carbon sequestration by forests in other locations.

Historical and Projected Surface Temperature over India during the 20th and 21st century.

PubMed

Basha, Ghouse; Kishore, P; Ratnam, M Venkat; Jayaraman, A; Agha Kouchak, Amir; Ouarda, Taha B M J; Velicogna, Isabella

2017-06-07

Surface Temperature (ST) over India has increased by ~0.055 K/decade during 1860-2005 and follows the global warming trend. Here, the natural and external forcings (e.g., natural and anthropogenic) responsible for ST variability are studied from Coupled Model Inter-comparison phase 5 (CMIP5) models during the 20 th century and projections during the 21 st century along with seasonal variability. Greenhouse Gases (GHG) and Land Use (LU) are the major factors that gave rise to warming during the 20 th century. Anthropogenic Aerosols (AA) have slowed down the warming rate. The CMIP5 projection over India shows a sharp increase in ST under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 where it reaches a maximum of 5 K by the end of the 21 st century. Under RCP2.6 emission scenarios, ST increases up to the year 2050 and decreases afterwards. The seasonal variability of ST during the 21 st century shows significant increase during summer. Analysis of rare heat and cold events for 2080-2099 relative to a base period of 1986-2006 under RCP8.5 scenarios reveals that both are likely to increase substantially. However, by controlling the regional AA and LU change in India, a reduction in further warming over India region might be achieved.

Global projections of extreme sea levels in view of climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Vousdoukas, M. I.; Feyen, L.; Voukouvalas, E.; Mentaschi, L.; Verlaan, M.; Jevrejeva, S.; Jackson, L. P.

2017-12-01

Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world's coasts. The present contribution aims to present global ESL projections obtained by combining dynamic simulations of all the major ESL components during the present century, considering the latest CMIP5 projections for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Baseline values are obtained combining global re-analyses of tides, waves, and storm surges, including the effects of tropical cyclones. The global average RSLR is projected around 20 and 24 cm by the 2050s under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively and is projected to reach 46 and 67 cm by the year 2100. The largest increases in MSL are projected along the South Pacific, Australia and West Africa, while the smaller RSLR is projected around East North America, and Europe. Contributions from waves and storm surges show a very weak increasing global trend, which becomes statistically significant only towards the end of the century and under RCP8.5. However, for areas like the East China Sea, Sea of Japan, Alaska, East Bering Sea, as well as the Southern Ocean, climate extremes could increase up to 15%. By the end of this century the 100-year event ESL along the world's coastlines will on average increase by 48 cm for RCP4.5 and 75 cm for RCP8.5. The strongest rise is projected along the Southern Ocean exceeding 1 m under RCP8.5 by the end of the century. Increase exceeding 80 cm is projected for East Asia, West North America, East South America, and the North Indian Ocean. Considering always the business as usual and the year 2100, the lowest increase in ESL100 is projected along the East North America and Europe (below 50 cm). The present findings indicate that, under both RCPs, by the year 2050 the present day 100-year event will occur every 5 years along a large part of the tropics, rendering coastal zones exposed to intermittent flood hazard.

Head mounted DMD based projection system for natural and prosthetic visual stimulation in freely moving rats.

PubMed

Arens-Arad, Tamar; Farah, Nairouz; Ben-Yaish, Shai; Zlotnik, Alex; Zalevsky, Zeev; Mandel, Yossi

2016-10-12

Novel technologies are constantly under development for vision restoration in blind patients. Many of these emerging technologies are based on the projection of high intensity light patterns at specific wavelengths, raising the need for the development of specialized projection systems. Here we present and characterize a novel projection system that meets the requirements for artificial retinal stimulation in rats and enables the recording of cortical responses. The system is based on a customized miniature Digital Mirror Device (DMD) for pattern projection, in both visible (525 nm) and NIR (915 nm) wavelengths, and a lens periscope for relaying the pattern directly onto the animal's retina. Thorough system characterization and the investigation of the effect of various parameters on obtained image quality were performed using ZEMAX. Simulation results revealed that images with an MTF higher than 0.8 were obtained with little effect of the vertex distance. Increased image quality was obtained at an optimal pupil diameter and smaller field of view. Visual cortex activity data was recorded simultaneously with pattern projection, further highlighting the importance of the system for prosthetic vision studies. This novel head mounted projection system may prove to be a vital tool in studying natural and artificial vision in behaving animals.

Head mounted DMD based projection system for natural and prosthetic visual stimulation in freely moving rats

PubMed Central

Arens-Arad, Tamar; Farah, Nairouz; Ben-Yaish, Shai; Zlotnik, Alex; Zalevsky, Zeev; Mandel, Yossi

2016-01-01

Novel technologies are constantly under development for vision restoration in blind patients. Many of these emerging technologies are based on the projection of high intensity light patterns at specific wavelengths, raising the need for the development of specialized projection systems. Here we present and characterize a novel projection system that meets the requirements for artificial retinal stimulation in rats and enables the recording of cortical responses. The system is based on a customized miniature Digital Mirror Device (DMD) for pattern projection, in both visible (525 nm) and NIR (915 nm) wavelengths, and a lens periscope for relaying the pattern directly onto the animal’s retina. Thorough system characterization and the investigation of the effect of various parameters on obtained image quality were performed using ZEMAX. Simulation results revealed that images with an MTF higher than 0.8 were obtained with little effect of the vertex distance. Increased image quality was obtained at an optimal pupil diameter and smaller field of view. Visual cortex activity data was recorded simultaneously with pattern projection, further highlighting the importance of the system for prosthetic vision studies. This novel head mounted projection system may prove to be a vital tool in studying natural and artificial vision in behaving animals. PMID:27731346

Head mounted DMD based projection system for natural and prosthetic visual stimulation in freely moving rats

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Arens-Arad, Tamar; Farah, Nairouz; Ben-Yaish, Shai; Zlotnik, Alex; Zalevsky, Zeev; Mandel, Yossi

2016-10-01

Novel technologies are constantly under development for vision restoration in blind patients. Many of these emerging technologies are based on the projection of high intensity light patterns at specific wavelengths, raising the need for the development of specialized projection systems. Here we present and characterize a novel projection system that meets the requirements for artificial retinal stimulation in rats and enables the recording of cortical responses. The system is based on a customized miniature Digital Mirror Device (DMD) for pattern projection, in both visible (525 nm) and NIR (915 nm) wavelengths, and a lens periscope for relaying the pattern directly onto the animal’s retina. Thorough system characterization and the investigation of the effect of various parameters on obtained image quality were performed using ZEMAX. Simulation results revealed that images with an MTF higher than 0.8 were obtained with little effect of the vertex distance. Increased image quality was obtained at an optimal pupil diameter and smaller field of view. Visual cortex activity data was recorded simultaneously with pattern projection, further highlighting the importance of the system for prosthetic vision studies. This novel head mounted projection system may prove to be a vital tool in studying natural and artificial vision in behaving animals.

[Review and analysis of transplant biological research projects funded by National Natural Science Foundation of China].

PubMed

Gong, Weihua; Sun, Ruijuan; Dong, Erdan

2015-08-01

To study the funding and achievements in the field of organ transplantation support by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). A search of NSFC database was made by using the key word "transplantation" and excluding "bone marrow transplantation" for the projects funded between 1988 and 2013. SCI indexed publications that marked with NSFC project number were collected by searching each grant number in the database of the Web of Science. Six hundreds fifty-five projects were identified and received about 220 million yuan in grant funding. These funded research projects were distributed among 25 provinces and autonomous regions, however, which were mainly in the developed coastal areas; of them, 43 (6.56%) projects were granted in xenotransplantation and 17 projects (2.60%) were funded in the field of traditional Chinese medicine-related organ transplantation; Transplantation on blood vessels, heart, kidney, liver, lung, small intestine, pancreatic, cornea, trachea, skin, etc. were primarily performed in research. Nine hundreds and sixty-one SCI-indexed publications were achieved. Magnitude and intensity of NSFC funding, output of SCI publications have been increasing, suggesting that NSFC positively promotes the development of organ transplantation. Although a great progress of transplantation has been made, basic and translational studies should be vigorously strengthened.

Projecting Future Heat-Related Mortality under Climate Change Scenarios: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Barnett, Adrian Gerard; Wang, Xiaoming; Vaneckova, Pavla; FitzGerald, Gerard; Tong, Shilu

2011-01-01

Background: Heat-related mortality is a matter of great public health concern, especially in the light of climate change. Although many studies have found associations between high temperatures and mortality, more research is needed to project the future impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. Objectives: We conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under climate change scenarios. Data sources and extraction: A literature search was conducted in August 2010, using the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ScienceDirect, ProQuest, and Web of Science. The search was limited to peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from January 1980 through July 2010. Data synthesis: Fourteen studies fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Most projections showed that climate change would result in a substantial increase in heat-related mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding historical temperature–mortality relationships and considering the future changes in climate, population, and acclimatization. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution, and mortality displacement. Conclusions: Scenario-based projection research will meaningfully contribute to assessing and managing the potential impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality. PMID:21816703

A four-year, systems-wide intervention promoting interprofessional collaboration

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background A four-year action research study was conducted across the Australian Capital Territory health system to strengthen interprofessional collaboration (IPC) though multiple intervention activities. Methods We developed 272 substantial IPC intervention activities involving 2,407 face-to-face encounters with health system personnel. Staff attitudes toward IPC were surveyed yearly using Heinemann et al's Attitudes toward Health Care Teams and Parsell and Bligh's Readiness for Interprofessional Learning scales (RIPLS). At study's end staff assessed whether project goals were achieved. Results Of the improvement projects, 76 exhibited progress, and 57 made considerable gains in IPC. Educational workshops and feedback sessions were well received and stimulated interprofessional activities. Over time staff scores on Heinemann's Quality of Interprofessional Care subscale did not change significantly and scores on the Doctor Centrality subscale increased, contrary to predictions. Scores on the RIPLS subscales of Teamwork & Collaboration and Professional Identity did not alter. On average for the assessment items 33% of staff agreed that goals had been achieved, 10% disagreed, and 57% checked neutral. There was most agreement that the study had resulted in increased sharing of knowledge between professions and improved quality of patient care, and least agreement that between-professional rivalries had lessened and communication and trust between professions improved. Conclusions Our longitudinal interventional study of IPC involving multiple activities supporting increased IPC achieved many project-specific goals. However, improvements in attitudes over time were not demonstrated and neutral assessments predominated, highlighting the difficulties faced by studies targeting change at the systems level and over extended periods. PMID:22520869

Risk and direct protective factors for youth violence: results from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Multisite Violence Prevention Project.

PubMed

Henry, David B; Tolan, Patrick H; Gorman-Smith, Deborah; Schoeny, Michael E

2012-08-01

This study was conducted as part of a multisite effort to examine risk and direct protective factors for youth violence. The goal was to identify those factors in the lives of young people that increase or decrease the risk of violence. These analyses fill an important gap in the literature, as few studies have examined risk and direct protective factors for youth violence across multiple studies. Data on 4432 middle-school youth, from the CDC Multisite Violence Prevention Project were used. Evaluations were made of effects of variables coded as risk and direct protective factors in the fall of 6th grade on violence measured in spring of 7th and 8th grades. Factors tested included depression, delinquency, alcohol and drug involvement, involvement in family activities, academic achievement, attitudes toward school, truancy, and peer deviance. Most variables were coded with two sets of dummy variables indicating risk and protective directions of effects. Results showed that higher teacher-rated study skills were associated with lower subsequent violence across genders and ethnic groups. Affiliation with deviant peers was significantly associated with increased subsequent violence among youth reporting their race/ethnicity as white or other, marginally associated with increased violence among African-American youth, and unrelated among Latino youth. This study identified some factors than should be areas of interest for effective prevention programs. Some ethnic differences also should be considered in planning of prevention. The CDC Multisite Violence Prevention Project completed enrollment prior to July 2005. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.