Correlation study of theoretical and experimental results for spin tests of a 1/10 scale radio control model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bihrle, W., Jr.

1976-01-01

A correlation study was conducted to determine the ability of current analytical spin prediction techniques to predict the flight motions of a current fighter airplane configuration during the spin entry, the developed spin, and the spin recovery motions. The airplane math model used aerodynamics measured on an exact replica of the flight test model using conventional static and forced-oscillation wind-tunnel test techniques and a recently developed rotation-balance test apparatus capable of measuring aerodynamics under steady spinning conditions. An attempt was made to predict the flight motions measured during stall/spin flight testing of an unpowered, radio-controlled model designed to be a 1/10 scale, dynamically-scaled model of a current fighter configuration. Comparison of the predicted and measured flight motions show that while the post-stall and spin entry motions were not well-predicted, the developed spinning motion (a steady flat spin) and the initial phases of the spin recovery motion are reasonably well predicted.

Prevalidation of a model for predicting acute neutropenia by colony forming unit granulocyte/macrophage (CFU-GM) assay.

PubMed

Pessina, A; Albella, B; Bueren, J; Brantom, P; Casati, S; Gribaldo, L; Croera, C; Gagliardi, G; Foti, P; Parchment, R; Parent-Massin, D; Sibiril, Y; Van Den Heuvel, R

2001-12-01

This report describes an international prevalidation study conducted to optimise the Standard Operating Procedure (SOP) for detecting myelosuppressive agents by CFU-GM assay and to study a model for predicting (by means of this in vitro hematopoietic assay) the acute xenobiotic exposure levels that cause maximum tolerated decreases in absolute neutrophil counts (ANC). In the first phase of the study (Protocol Refinement), two SOPs were assessed, by using two cell culture media (Test A, containing GM-CSF; and Test B, containing G-CSF, GM-CSF, IL-3, IL-6 and SCF), and the two tests were applied to cells from both human (bone marrow and umbilical cord blood) and mouse (bone marrow) CFU-GM. In the second phase (Protocol Transfer), the SOPs were transferred to four laboratories to verify the linearity of the assay response and its interlaboratory reproducibility. After a further phase (Protocol Performance), dedicated to a training set of six anticancer drugs (adriamycin, flavopindol, morpholino-doxorubicin, pyrazoloacridine, taxol and topotecan), a model for predicting neutropenia was verified. Results showed that the assay is linear under SOP conditions, and that the in vitro endpoints used by the clinical prediction model of neutropenia are highly reproducible within and between laboratories. Valid tests represented 95% of all tests attempted. The 90% inhibitory concentration values (IC(90)) from Test A and Test B accurately predicted the human maximum tolerated dose (MTD) for five of six and for four of six myelosuppressive anticancer drugs, respectively, that were selected as prototype xenobiotics. As expected, both tests failed to accurately predict the human MTD of a drug that is a likely protoxicant. It is concluded that Test A offers significant cost advantages compared to Test B, without any loss of performance or predictive accuracy. On the basis of these results, we proposed a formal Phase II validation study using the Test A SOP for 16-18 additional xenobiotics that represent the spectrum of haematotoxic potential.

The psychological complexity of predictive testing for late onset neurogenetic diseases and hereditary cancers: implications for multidisciplinary counselling and for genetic education.

PubMed

Evers-Kiebooms, G; Welkenhuysen, M; Claes, E; Decruyenaere, M; Denayer, L

2000-09-01

Increasing knowledge about the human genome has resulted in the availability of a steadily increasing number of predictive DNA-tests for two major categories of diseases: neurogenetic diseases and hereditary cancers. The psychological complexity of predictive testing for these late onset diseases requires careful consideration. It is the main aim of the present paper to describe this psychological complexity, which necessitates an adequate and systematic multidisciplinary approach, including psychological counselling, as well as ongoing education of professionals and of the general public. Predictive testing for neurogenetic diseases--in an adequate counselling context--so far elicits optimism regarding the short- and mid-term impact of the predictive test result. The psychosocial impact has been most widely studied for Huntington's disease. Longitudinal studies are of the utmost importance in evaluating the long-term impact of predictive testing for neurogenetic diseases on the tested person and his/her family. Given the more recent experience with predictive DNA-testing for hereditary cancers, fewer published scientific data are available. Longitudinal research on the mid- and long-term psychological impact of the predictive test result is essential. Decision making regarding health surveillance or preventive surgery after being detected as a carrier of one of the relevant mutations should receive special attention. Tailoring the professional approach--inside and outside genetic centres--to the families' needs is a continuous challenge. Even if a continuous effort is made, several important questions remain unanswered, last but not least the question regarding the best strategy to guarantee that the availability of predictive genetic testing results in a reduction of suffering caused by genetic disease and in an improvement of the quality of life of families confronted with genetic disease.

The validity of ACT-PEP test scores for predicting academic performance of registered nurses in BSN programs.

PubMed

Yang, J C; Noble, J

1990-01-01

This study investigated the validity of three American College Testing-Proficiency Examination Program (ACT-PEP) tests (Maternal and Child Nursing, Psychiatric/Mental Health Nursing, Adult Nursing) for predicting the academic performance of registered nurses (RNs) enrolled in bachelor's degree BSN programs nationwide. This study also examined RN students' performance on the ACT-PEP tests by their demographic characteristics: student's age, sex, race, student status (full- or part-time), and employment status (full- or part-time). The total sample for the three tests comprised 2,600 students from eight institutions nationwide. The median correlation coefficients between the three ACT-PEP tests and the semester grade point averages ranged from .36 to .56. Median correlation coefficients increased over time, supporting the stability of ACT-PEP test scores for predicting academic performance over time. The relative importance of selected independent variables for predicting academic performance was also examined; the most important variable for predicting academic performance was typically the ACT-PEP test score. Across the institutions, student demographic characteristics did not contribute significantly to explaining academic performance, over and above ACT-PEP scores.

Study of cavitating inducer instabilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Young, W. E.; Murphy, R.; Reddecliff, J. M.

1972-01-01

An analytic and experimental investigation into the causes and mechanisms of cavitating inducer instabilities was conducted. Hydrofoil cascade tests were performed, during which cavity sizes were measured. The measured data were used, along with inducer data and potential flow predictions, to refine an analysis for the prediction of inducer blade suction surface cavitation cavity volume. Cavity volume predictions were incorporated into a linearized system model, and instability predictions for an inducer water test loop were generated. Inducer tests were conducted and instability predictions correlated favorably with measured instability data.

Predicting Student Performance in Statewide High-Stakes Tests for Middle School Mathematics Using the Results from Third Party Testing Instruments

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Meylani, Rusen; Bitter, Gary G.; Castaneda, Rene

2014-01-01

In this study regression and neural networks based methods are used to predict statewide high-stakes test results for middle school mathematics using the scores obtained from third party tests throughout the school year. Such prediction is of utmost significance for school districts to live up to the state's educational standards mandated by the…

Validity of one-repetition maximum predictive equations in men with spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Ribeiro Neto, F; Guanais, P; Dornelas, E; Coutinho, A C B; Costa, R R G

2017-10-01

Cross-sectional study. The study aimed (a) to test the cross-validation of current one-repetition maximum (1RM) predictive equations in men with spinal cord injury (SCI); (b) to compare the current 1RM predictive equations to a newly developed equation based on the 4- to 12-repetition maximum test (4-12RM). SARAH Rehabilitation Hospital Network, Brasilia, Brazil. Forty-five men aged 28.0 years with SCI between C6 and L2 causing complete motor impairment were enrolled in the study. Volunteers were tested, in a random order, in 1RM test or 4-12RM with 2-3 interval days. Multiple regression analysis was used to generate an equation for predicting 1RM. There were no significant differences between 1RM test and the current predictive equations. ICC values were significant and were classified as excellent for all current predictive equations. The predictive equation of Lombardi presented the best Bland-Altman results (0.5 kg and 12.8 kg for mean difference and interval range around the differences, respectively). The two created equation models for 1RM demonstrated the same and a high adjusted R 2 (0.971, P<0.01), but different SEE of measured 1RM (2.88 kg or 5.4% and 2.90 kg or 5.5%). All 1RM predictive equations are accurate to assess individuals with SCI at the bench press exercise. However, the predictive equation of Lombardi presented the best associated cross-validity results. A specific 1RM prediction equation was also elaborated for individuals with SCI. The created equation should be tested in order to verify whether it presents better accuracy than the current ones.

The Prediction of Item Parameters Based on Classical Test Theory and Latent Trait Theory

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anil, Duygu

2008-01-01

In this study, the prediction power of the item characteristics based on the experts' predictions on conditions try-out practices cannot be applied was examined for item characteristics computed depending on classical test theory and two-parameters logistic model of latent trait theory. The study was carried out on 9914 randomly selected students…

Validation of the cephalosporin intradermal skin test for predicting immediate hypersensitivity: a prospective study with drug challenge.

PubMed

Yoon, S-Y; Park, S Y; Kim, S; Lee, T; Lee, Y S; Kwon, H-S; Cho, Y S; Moon, H-B; Kim, T-B

2013-07-01

Cephalosporin is a major offending agent in terms of drug hypersensitivity along with penicillin. Cephalosporin intradermal skin tests (IDTs) have been widely used; however, their validity for predicting immediate hypersensitivity has not been studied. This study aimed to determine the predictive value of cephalosporin intradermal skin testing before administration of the drug. We prospectively conducted IDTs with four cephalosporins, one each of selected first-, second-, third-, or fourth-generation cephalosporins: ceftezol; cefotetan or cefamandole; ceftriaxone or cefotaxime; and flomoxef, respectively, as well as with penicillin G. After the skin test, whatever the result, one of the tested cephalosporins was administered intravenously and the patient was carefully observed. We recruited 1421 patients who required preoperative cephalosporins. Seventy-four patients (74/1421, 5.2%) were positive to at least one cephalosporin. However, none of responders had immediate hypersensitivity reactions after a challenge dose of the same or different cephalosporin, which were positive in the skin test. Four patients who suffered generalized urticaria and itching after challenge gave negative skin tests for the corresponding drug. The IDT for cephalosporin had a sensitivity of 0%, a specificity of 97.5%, a negative predictive value of 99.7%, and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 0%, when challenged with the same drugs that were positive in the skin test. Routine skin testing with a cephalosporin before its administration is not useful for predicting immediate hypersensitivity because of the extremely low sensitivity and PPV of the skin test (CRIS registration no. KCT0000455). © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predictive validity of pre-admission assessments on medical student performance.

PubMed

Dabaliz, Al-Awwab; Kaadan, Samy; Dabbagh, M Marwan; Barakat, Abdulaziz; Shareef, Mohammad Abrar; Al-Tannir, Mohamad; Obeidat, Akef; Mohamed, Ayman

2017-11-24

To examine the predictive validity of pre-admission variables on students' performance in a medical school in Saudi Arabia. In this retrospective study, we collected admission and college performance data for 737 students in preclinical and clinical years. Data included high school scores and other standardized test scores, such as those of the National Achievement Test and the General Aptitude Test. Additionally, we included the scores of the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) and the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) exams. Those datasets were then compared with college performance indicators, namely the cumulative Grade Point Average (cGPA) and progress test, using multivariate linear regression analysis. In preclinical years, both the National Achievement Test (p=0.04, B=0.08) and TOEFL (p=0.017, B=0.01) scores were positive predictors of cGPA, whereas the General Aptitude Test (p=0.048, B=-0.05) negatively predicted cGPA. Moreover, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of progress test performance in the same group. On the other hand, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of cGPA in clinical years. Overall, cGPA strongly predict-ed students' progress test performance (p<0.001 and B=19.02). Only the National Achievement Test and TOEFL significantly predicted performance in preclinical years. However, these variables do not predict progress test performance, meaning that they do not predict the functional knowledge reflected in the progress test. We report various strengths and deficiencies in the current medical college admission criteria, and call for employing more sensitive and valid ones that predict student performance and functional knowledge, especially in the clinical years.

Predictive validity of pre-admission assessments on medical student performance

PubMed Central

Dabaliz, Al-Awwab; Kaadan, Samy; Dabbagh, M. Marwan; Barakat, Abdulaziz; Shareef, Mohammad Abrar; Al-Tannir, Mohamad; Obeidat, Akef

2017-01-01

Objectives To examine the predictive validity of pre-admission variables on students’ performance in a medical school in Saudi Arabia.  Methods In this retrospective study, we collected admission and college performance data for 737 students in preclinical and clinical years. Data included high school scores and other standardized test scores, such as those of the National Achievement Test and the General Aptitude Test. Additionally, we included the scores of the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) and the International English Language Testing System (IELTS) exams. Those datasets were then compared with college performance indicators, namely the cumulative Grade Point Average (cGPA) and progress test, using multivariate linear regression analysis. Results In preclinical years, both the National Achievement Test (p=0.04, B=0.08) and TOEFL (p=0.017, B=0.01) scores were positive predictors of cGPA, whereas the General Aptitude Test (p=0.048, B=-0.05) negatively predicted cGPA. Moreover, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of progress test performance in the same group. On the other hand, none of the pre-admission variables were predictive of cGPA in clinical years. Overall, cGPA strongly predict-ed students’ progress test performance (p<0.001 and B=19.02). Conclusions Only the National Achievement Test and TOEFL significantly predicted performance in preclinical years. However, these variables do not predict progress test performance, meaning that they do not predict the functional knowledge reflected in the progress test. We report various strengths and deficiencies in the current medical college admission criteria, and call for employing more sensitive and valid ones that predict student performance and functional knowledge, especially in the clinical years. PMID:29176032

Group Sequential Testing of the Predictive Accuracy of a Continuous Biomarker with Unknown Prevalence

PubMed Central

Koopmeiners, Joseph S.; Feng, Ziding

2015-01-01

Group sequential testing procedures have been proposed as an approach to conserving resources in biomarker validation studies. Previously, Koopmeiners and Feng (2011) derived the asymptotic properties of the sequential empirical positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value curves, which summarize the predictive accuracy of a continuous marker, under case-control sampling. A limitation of their approach is that the prevalence can not be estimated from a case-control study and must be assumed known. In this manuscript, we consider group sequential testing of the predictive accuracy of a continuous biomarker with unknown prevalence. First, we develop asymptotic theory for the sequential empirical PPV and NPV curves when the prevalence must be estimated, rather than assumed known in a case-control study. We then discuss how our results can be combined with standard group sequential methods to develop group sequential testing procedures and bias-adjusted estimators for the PPV and NPV curve. The small sample properties of the proposed group sequential testing procedures and estimators are evaluated by simulation and we illustrate our approach in the context of a study to validate a novel biomarker for prostate cancer. PMID:26537180

Comparison of Predicted and Measured Attenuation of Turbine Noise from a Static Engine Test

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chien, Eugene W.; Ruiz, Marta; Yu, Jia; Morin, Bruce L.; Cicon, Dennis; Schwieger, Paul S.; Nark, Douglas M.

2007-01-01

Aircraft noise has become an increasing concern for commercial airlines. Worldwide demand for quieter aircraft is increasing, making the prediction of engine noise suppression one of the most important fields of research. The Low-Pressure Turbine (LPT) can be an important noise source during the approach condition for commercial aircraft. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Pratt & Whitney (P&W), and Goodrich Aerostructures (Goodrich) conducted a joint program to validate a method for predicting turbine noise attenuation. The method includes noise-source estimation, acoustic treatment impedance prediction, and in-duct noise propagation analysis. Two noise propagation prediction codes, Eversman Finite Element Method (FEM) code [1] and the CDUCT-LaRC [2] code, were used in this study to compare the predicted and the measured turbine noise attenuation from a static engine test. In this paper, the test setup, test configurations and test results are detailed in Section II. A description of the input parameters, including estimated noise modal content (in terms of acoustic potential), and acoustic treatment impedance values are provided in Section III. The prediction-to-test correlation study results are illustrated and discussed in Section IV and V for the FEM and the CDUCT-LaRC codes, respectively, and a summary of the results is presented in Section VI.

Using Growth Rate of Reading Fluency to Predict Performance on Statewide Achievement Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hinkle, Rachelle Whittaker

2011-01-01

Federal legislation has prescribed the increased use of statewide achievement tests as the culmination of a student's knowledge and ability at the end of a grade level; however, schools need to be able to predict those who are at-risk of performing poorly on these high-stakes tests. Three studies served to identify a means of predicting statewide…

A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8

USGS Publications Warehouse

Healy, John H.; Kossobokov, Vladimir G.; Dewey, James W.

1992-01-01

A test of the algorithm M8 is described. The test is constructed to meet four rules, which we propose to be applicable to the test of any method for earthquake prediction:  1. An earthquake prediction technique should be presented as a well documented, logical algorithm that can be used by  investigators without restrictions. 2. The algorithm should be coded in a common programming language and implementable on widely available computer systems. 3. A test of the earthquake prediction technique should involve future predictions with a black box version of the algorithm in which potentially adjustable parameters are fixed in advance. The source of the input data must be defined and ambiguities in these data must be resolved automatically by the algorithm. 4. At least one reasonable null hypothesis should be stated in advance of testing the earthquake prediction method, and it should be stated how this null hypothesis will be used to estimate the statistical significance of the earthquake predictions. The M8 algorithm has successfully predicted several destructive earthquakes, in the sense that the earthquakes occurred inside regions with linear dimensions from 384 to 854 km that the algorithm had identified as being in times of increased probability for strong earthquakes. In addition, M8 has successfully "post predicted" high percentages of strong earthquakes in regions to which it has been applied in retroactive studies. The statistical significance of previous predictions has not been established, however, and post-prediction studies in general are notoriously subject to success-enhancement through hindsight. Nor has it been determined how much more precise an M8 prediction might be than forecasts and probability-of-occurrence estimates made by other techniques. We view our test of M8 both as a means to better determine the effectiveness of M8 and as an experimental structure within which to make observations that might lead to improvements in the algorithm or conceivably lead to a radically different approach to earthquake prediction.

Test Framing Generates a Stability Bias for Predictions of Learning by Causing People to Discount their Learning Beliefs

PubMed Central

Ariel, Robert; Hines, Jarrod C.; Hertzog, Christopher

2014-01-01

People estimate minimal changes in learning when making predictions of learning (POLs) for future study opportunities despite later showing increased performance and an awareness of that increase (Kornell & Bjork, 2009). This phenomenon is conceptualized as a stability bias in judgments about learning. We investigated the malleability of this effect, and whether it reflected people’s underlying beliefs about learning. We manipulated prediction framing to emphasize the role of testing vs. studying on memory and directly measured beliefs about multi-trial study effects on learning by having participants construct predicted learning curves before and after the experiment. Mean POLs were more sensitive to the number of study-test opportunities when performance was framed in terms of study benefits rather than testing benefits and POLs reflected pre-existing beliefs about learning. The stability bias is partially due to framing and reflects discounted beliefs about learning benefits rather than inherent belief in the stability of performance. PMID:25067885

Test Framing Generates a Stability Bias for Predictions of Learning by Causing People to Discount their Learning Beliefs.

PubMed

Ariel, Robert; Hines, Jarrod C; Hertzog, Christopher

2014-08-01

People estimate minimal changes in learning when making predictions of learning (POLs) for future study opportunities despite later showing increased performance and an awareness of that increase (Kornell & Bjork, 2009). This phenomenon is conceptualized as a stability bias in judgments about learning. We investigated the malleability of this effect, and whether it reflected people's underlying beliefs about learning. We manipulated prediction framing to emphasize the role of testing vs. studying on memory and directly measured beliefs about multi-trial study effects on learning by having participants construct predicted learning curves before and after the experiment. Mean POLs were more sensitive to the number of study-test opportunities when performance was framed in terms of study benefits rather than testing benefits and POLs reflected pre-existing beliefs about learning. The stability bias is partially due to framing and reflects discounted beliefs about learning benefits rather than inherent belief in the stability of performance.

Predictive validity of the Biomedical Admissions Test: an evaluation and case study.

PubMed

McManus, I C; Ferguson, Eamonn; Wakeford, Richard; Powis, David; James, David

2011-01-01

There has been an increase in the use of pre-admission selection tests for medicine. Such tests need to show good psychometric properties. Here, we use a paper by Emery and Bell [2009. The predictive validity of the Biomedical Admissions Test for pre-clinical examination performance. Med Educ 43:557-564] as a case study to evaluate and comment on the reporting of psychometric data in the field of medical student selection (and the comments apply to many papers in the field). We highlight pitfalls when reliability data are not presented, how simple zero-order associations can lead to inaccurate conclusions about the predictive validity of a test, and how biases need to be explored and reported. We show with BMAT that it is the knowledge part of the test which does all the predictive work. We show that without evidence of incremental validity it is difficult to assess the value of any selection tests for medicine.

Predictive Validity Study of the APS Writing and Reading Tests [and] Validating Placement Rules for the APS Writing Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

College of the Canyons, Valencia, CA. Office of Institutional Development.

California's College of the Canyons has used the College Board Assessment and Placement Services (APS) test to assess students' abilities in basic and college English since spring 1993. These two reports summarize data from a May 1994 study of the predictive validity of the APS writing and reading tests and a June 1994 effort to validate the cut…

Prediction of long-term transverse creep compliance in high-temperature IM7/LaRC-RP46 composites

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Yuan, F.G.; Potter, B.D.

1994-12-31

An experimental study is performed which predicts long-term tensile transverse creep compliance of high-temperature IM7/LaRC-RP46 composites from short-term creep and recovery tests. The short-term tests were conducted for various stress levels at various fixed temperatures. Predictive nonlinear viscoelastic model developed by Schapery and experimental procedure were used to predict the long-term results in terms of master curve extrapolated from short-term tests.

A Novel Approach to Prediction of Mild Obstructive Sleep Disordered Breathing in a Population-Based Sample: The Sleep Heart Health Study

PubMed Central

Caffo, Brian; Diener-West, Marie; Punjabi, Naresh M.; Samet, Jonathan

2010-01-01

This manuscript considers a data-mining approach for the prediction of mild obstructive sleep disordered breathing, defined as an elevated respiratory disturbance index (RDI), in 5,530 participants in a community-based study, the Sleep Heart Health Study. The prediction algorithm was built using modern ensemble learning algorithms, boosting in specific, which allowed for assessing potential high-dimensional interactions between predictor variables or classifiers. To evaluate the performance of the algorithm, the data were split into training and validation sets for varying thresholds for predicting the probability of a high RDI (≥ 7 events per hour in the given results). Based on a moderate classification threshold from the boosting algorithm, the estimated post-test odds of a high RDI were 2.20 times higher than the pre-test odds given a positive test, while the corresponding post-test odds were decreased by 52% given a negative test (sensitivity and specificity of 0.66 and 0.70, respectively). In rank order, the following variables had the largest impact on prediction performance: neck circumference, body mass index, age, snoring frequency, waist circumference, and snoring loudness. Citation: Caffo B; Diener-West M; Punjabi NM; Samet J. A novel approach to prediction of mild obstructive sleep disordered breathing in a population-based sample: the Sleep Heart Health Study. SLEEP 2010;33(12):1641-1648. PMID:21120126

Does the Value of Dynamic Assessment in Predicting End-of-First-Grade Mathematics Performance Differ as a Function of English Language Proficiency?

PubMed Central

Seethaler, Pamela M.; Fuchs, Lynn S.; Fuchs, Douglas; Compton, Donald L.

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study was to assess the added value of dynamic assessment (DA) beyond more conventional static measures for predicting individual differences in year-end 1st-grade calculation (CA) and word-problem (WP) performance, as a function of limited English proficiency (LEP) status. At the start of 1st grade, students (129 LEP; 163 non-LEP) were assessed on a brief static mathematics test, an extended static mathematics test, static tests of domain-general abilities associated with CAs and WPs (vocabulary; reasoning), and DA. Near end of 1st grade, they were assessed on CA and WP. Regression analyses indicated that the value of the predictor depends on the predicted outcome and LEP status. In predicting CAs, the extended mathematics test and DA uniquely explained variance for LEP children, with stronger predictive value for the extended mathematics test; for non-LEP children, the extended mathematics test was the only significant predictor. However, in predicting WPs, only DA and vocabulary were uniquely predictive for LEP children, with stronger value for DA; for non-LEP children, the extended mathematics test and DA were comparably uniquely predictive. Neither the brief static mathematics test nor reasoning was significant in predicting either outcome. The potential value of a gated screening process, using an extended mathematics assessment to predict CAs and using DA to predict WPs, is discussed. PMID:26523068

Lay perceptions of predictive testing for diabetes based on DNA test results versus family history assessment: a focus group study.

PubMed

Wijdenes-Pijl, Miranda; Dondorp, Wybo J; Timmermans, Danielle Rm; Cornel, Martina C; Henneman, Lidewij

2011-07-05

This study assessed lay perceptions of issues related to predictive genetic testing for multifactorial diseases. These perceived issues may differ from the "classic" issues, e.g. autonomy, discrimination, and psychological harm that are considered important in predictive testing for monogenic disorders. In this study, type 2 diabetes was used as an example, and perceptions with regard to predictive testing based on DNA test results and family history assessment were compared. Eight focus group interviews were held with 45 individuals aged 35-70 years with (n = 3) and without (n = 1) a family history of diabetes, mixed groups of these two (n = 2), and diabetes patients (n = 2). All interviews were transcribed and analysed using Atlas-ti. Most participants believed in the ability of a predictive test to identify people at risk for diabetes and to motivate preventive behaviour. Different reasons underlying motivation were considered when comparing DNA test results and a family history risk assessment. A perceived drawback of DNA testing was that diabetes was considered not severe enough for this type of risk assessment. In addition, diabetes family history assessment was not considered useful by some participants, since there are also other risk factors involved, not everyone has a diabetes family history or knows their family history, and it might have a negative influence on family relations. Respect for autonomy of individuals was emphasized more with regard to DNA testing than family history assessment. Other issues such as psychological harm, discrimination, and privacy were only briefly mentioned for both tests. The results suggest that most participants believe a predictive genetic test could be used in the prevention of multifactorial disorders, such as diabetes, but indicate points to consider before both these tests are applied. These considerations differ with regard to the method of assessment (DNA test or obtaining family history) and also differ from monogenic disorders.

Early literacy and early numeracy: the value of including early literacy skills in the prediction of numeracy development.

PubMed

Purpura, David J; Hume, Laura E; Sims, Darcey M; Lonigan, Christopher J

2011-12-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether early literacy skills uniquely predict early numeracy skills development. During the first year of the study, 69 3- to 5-year-old preschoolers were assessed on the Preschool Early Numeracy Skills (PENS) test and the Test of Preschool Early Literacy Skills (TOPEL). Participants were assessed again a year later on the PENS test and on the Applied Problems and Calculation subtests of the Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Achievement. Three mixed effect regressions were conducted using Time 2 PENS, Applied Problems, and Calculation as the dependent variables. Print Knowledge and Vocabulary accounted for unique variance in the prediction of Time 2 numeracy scores. Phonological Awareness did not uniquely predict any of the mathematics domains. The findings of this study identify an important link between early literacy and early numeracy development. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The predictive value of external continuous lumbar drainage, with cerebrospinal fluid outflow controlled by medium pressure valve, in normal pressure hydrocephalus.

PubMed

Panagiotopoulos, V; Konstantinou, D; Kalogeropoulos, A; Maraziotis, T

2005-09-01

Although sporadic studies have described temporary external cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) lumbar drainage as a highly accurate test for predicting the outcome after ventricular shunting in normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH) patients, a more recent study reports that the positive predictive value of external lumbar drainage (ELD) is high but the negative predictive value is deceptively low. Therefore, we conducted a prospective study in order to evaluate the predictive value of a continuous ELD, with CSF outflow controlled by medium pressure valve, in NPH patients. Twenty-seven patients with presumed NPH were admitted to our department and CSF drainage was carried out by a temporary (ELD) with CSF outflow controlled by a medium pressure valve for five days. All patients received a ventriculoperitoneal shunt using a medium pressure valve based upon preoperative clinical and radiographic criteria of NPH, regardless of ELD outcome. Clinical evaluation of gait disturbances, urinary incontinence and mental status, and radiological evaluation with brain CT was performed prior to and after ELD test, as well as three months after shunting. Twenty-two patients were finally shunted and included in this study. In a three-month follow-up, using a previously validated score system, overall improvement after permanent shunting correlated well to improvement after ELD test (Spearman's rho = 0.462, p = 0.03). When considering any degree of improvement as a positive response, ELD test yielded high positive predictive values for all individual parameters (gait disturbances 94%, 95% CI 71%-100%, urinary incontinence 100%, 95% CI 66%-100%, and mental status 100%, 95% CI 66%-100%) but negative predictive values were low (< 50%) except for cognitive impairment (85%, 95% CI 55%-98%). This study suggests that a positive ELD-valve system test should be considered a reliable criterion for preoperative selection of shunt-responsive NPH patients. In case of a negative ELD-valve system test, further investigation of the presumed NPH patients with additional tests should be performed.

Ethical dilemmas in genetic testing: examples from the Cuban program for predictive diagnosis of hereditary ataxias.

PubMed

Mariño, Tania Cruz; Armiñán, Rubén Reynaldo; Cedeño, Humberto Jorge; Mesa, José Miguel Laffita; Zaldivar, Yanetza González; Rodríguez, Raúl Aguilera; Santos, Miguel Velázquez; Mederos, Luis Enrique Almaguer; Herrera, Milena Paneque; Pérez, Luis Velázquez

2011-06-01

Predictive testing protocols are intended to help patients affected with hereditary conditions understand their condition and make informed reproductive choices. However, predictive protocols may expose clinicians and patients to ethical dilemmas that interfere with genetic counseling and the decision making process. This paper describes ethical dilemmas in a series of five cases involving predictive testing for hereditary ataxias in Cuba. The examples herein present evidence of the deeply controversial situations faced by both individuals at risk and professionals in charge of these predictive studies, suggesting a need for expanded guidelines to address such complexities.

Multilevel Assessment of the Predictive Validity of Teacher Made Tests in the Zimbabwean Primary Education Sector

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Machingambi, Zadzisai

2017-01-01

The principal focus of this study was to undertake a multilevel assessment of the predictive validity of teacher made tests in the Zimbabwean primary education sector. A correlational research design was adopted for the study, mainly to allow for statistical treatment of data and subsequent classical hypotheses testing using the spearman's rho.…

Prediction of hamstring injury in professional soccer players by isokinetic measurements

PubMed Central

Dauty, Marc; Menu, Pierre; Fouasson-Chailloux, Alban; Ferréol, Sophie; Dubois, Charles

2016-01-01

Summary Objectives previous studies investigating the ability of isokinetic strength ratios to predict hamstring injuries in soccer players have reported conflicting results. Hypothesis to determine if isokinetic ratios are able to predict hamstring injury occurring during the season in professional soccer players. Study Design case-control study; Level of evidence: 3. Methods from 2001 to 2011, 350 isokinetic tests were performed in 136 professional soccer players at the beginning of the soccer season. Fifty-seven players suffered hamstring injury during the season that followed the isokinetic tests. These players were compared with the 79 uninjured players. The bilateral concentric ratio (hamstring-to-hamstring), ipsilateral concentric ratio (hamstring-to-quadriceps), and mixed ratio (eccentric/concentric hamstring-to-quadriceps) were studied. The predictive ability of each ratio was established based on the likelihood ratio and post-test probability. Results the mixed ratio (30 eccentric/240 concentric hamstring-to-quadriceps) <0.8, ipsilateral ratio (180 concentric hamstring-to-quadriceps) <0.47, and bilateral ratio (60 concentric hamstring-to-hamstring) <0.85 were the most predictive of hamstring injury. The ipsilateral ratio <0.47 allowed prediction of the severity of the hamstring injury, and was also influenced by the length of time since administration of the isokinetic tests. Conclusion isokinetic ratios are useful for predicting the likelihood of hamstring injury in professional soccer players during the competitive season. PMID:27331039

The Development of MST Test Information for the Prediction of Test Performances

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Park, Ryoungsun; Kim, Jiseon; Chung, Hyewon; Dodd, Barbara G.

2017-01-01

The current study proposes novel methods to predict multistage testing (MST) performance without conducting simulations. This method, called MST test information, is based on analytic derivation of standard errors of ability estimates across theta levels. We compared standard errors derived analytically to the simulation results to demonstrate the…

A 3-Year Study of Predictive Factors for Positive and Negative Appendicectomies.

PubMed

Chang, Dwayne T S; Maluda, Melissa; Lee, Lisa; Premaratne, Chandrasiri; Khamhing, Srisongham

2018-03-06

Early and accurate identification or exclusion of acute appendicitis is the key to avoid the morbidity of delayed treatment for true appendicitis or unnecessary appendicectomy, respectively. We aim (i) to identify potential predictive factors for positive and negative appendicectomies; and (ii) to analyse the use of ultrasound scans (US) and computed tomography (CT) scans for acute appendicitis. All appendicectomies that took place at our hospital from the 1st of January 2013 to the 31st of December 2015 were retrospectively recorded. Test results of potential predictive factors of acute appendicitis were recorded. Statistical analysis was performed using Fisher exact test, logistic regression analysis, sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values calculation. 208 patients were included in this study. 184 patients had histologically proven acute appendicitis. The other 24 patients had either nonappendicitis pathology or normal appendix. Logistic regression analysis showed statistically significant associations between appendicitis and white cell count, neutrophil count, C-reactive protein, and bilirubin. Neutrophil count was the test with the highest sensitivity and negative predictive values, whereas bilirubin was the test with the highest specificity and positive predictive values (PPV). US and CT scans had high sensitivity and PPV for diagnosing appendicitis. No single test was sufficient to diagnose or exclude acute appendicitis by itself. Combining tests with high sensitivity (abnormal neutrophil count, and US and CT scans) and high specificity (raised bilirubin) may predict acute appendicitis more accurately.

Kindergarten Predictors of Math Learning Disability

PubMed Central

Mazzocco, Michèle M. M.; Thompson, Richard E.

2009-01-01

The aim of the present study was to address how to effectively predict mathematics learning disability (MLD). Specifically, we addressed whether cognitive data obtained during kindergarten can effectively predict which children will have MLD in third grade, whether an abbreviated test battery could be as effective as a standard psychoeducational assessment at predicting MLD, and whether the abbreviated battery corresponded to the literature on MLD characteristics. Participants were 226 children who enrolled in a 4-year prospective longitudinal study during kindergarten. We administered measures of mathematics achievement, formal and informal mathematics ability, visual-spatial reasoning, and rapid automatized naming and examined which test scores and test items from kindergarten best predicted MLD at grades 2 and 3. Statistical models using standardized scores from the entire test battery correctly classified ~80–83 percent of the participants as having, or not having, MLD. Regression models using scores from only individual test items were less predictive than models containing the standard scores, except for models using a specific subset of test items that dealt with reading numerals, number constancy, magnitude judgments of one-digit numbers, or mental addition of one-digit numbers. These models were as accurate in predicting MLD as was the model including the entire set of standard scores from the battery of tests examined. Our findings indicate that it is possible to effectively predict which kindergartners are at risk for MLD, and thus the findings have implications for early screening of MLD. PMID:20084182

The predictive value of early behavioural assessments in pet dogs--a longitudinal study from neonates to adults.

PubMed

Riemer, Stefanie; Müller, Corsin; Virányi, Zsófia; Huber, Ludwig; Range, Friederike

2014-01-01

Studies on behavioural development in domestic dogs are of relevance for matching puppies with the right families, identifying predispositions for behavioural problems at an early stage, and predicting suitability for service dog work, police or military service. The literature is, however, inconsistent regarding the predictive value of tests performed during the socialisation period. Additionally, some practitioners use tests with neonates to complement later assessments for selecting puppies as working dogs, but these have not been validated. We here present longitudinal data on a cohort of Border collies, followed up from neonate age until adulthood. A neonate test was conducted with 99 Border collie puppies aged 2-10 days to assess activity, vocalisations when isolated and sucking force. At the age of 40-50 days, 134 puppies (including 93 tested as neonates) were tested in a puppy test at their breeders' homes. All dogs were adopted as pet dogs and 50 of them participated in a behavioural test at the age of 1.5 to 2 years with their owners. Linear mixed models found little correspondence between individuals' behaviour in the neonate, puppy and adult test. Exploratory activity was the only behaviour that was significantly correlated between the puppy and the adult test. We conclude that the predictive validity of early tests for predicting specific behavioural traits in adult pet dogs is limited.

The Predictive Value of Early Behavioural Assessments in Pet Dogs – A Longitudinal Study from Neonates to Adults

PubMed Central

Riemer, Stefanie; Müller, Corsin; Virányi, Zsófia; Huber, Ludwig; Range, Friederike

2014-01-01

Studies on behavioural development in domestic dogs are of relevance for matching puppies with the right families, identifying predispositions for behavioural problems at an early stage, and predicting suitability for service dog work, police or military service. The literature is, however, inconsistent regarding the predictive value of tests performed during the socialisation period. Additionally, some practitioners use tests with neonates to complement later assessments for selecting puppies as working dogs, but these have not been validated. We here present longitudinal data on a cohort of Border collies, followed up from neonate age until adulthood. A neonate test was conducted with 99 Border collie puppies aged 2–10 days to assess activity, vocalisations when isolated and sucking force. At the age of 40–50 days, 134 puppies (including 93 tested as neonates) were tested in a puppy test at their breeders' homes. All dogs were adopted as pet dogs and 50 of them participated in a behavioural test at the age of 1.5 to 2 years with their owners. Linear mixed models found little correspondence between individuals' behaviour in the neonate, puppy and adult test. Exploratory activity was the only behaviour that was significantly correlated between the puppy and the adult test. We conclude that the predictive validity of early tests for predicting specific behavioural traits in adult pet dogs is limited. PMID:25003341

The value of temporary external lumbar CSF drainage in predicting the outcome of shunting on normal pressure hydrocephalus

PubMed Central

Walchenbach, R; Geiger, E; Thomeer, R; Vanneste, J

2002-01-01

Objective: It has been reported that temporary external lumbar CSF drainage (ELD) is a very accurate test for predicting the outcome after ventricular shunting in patients with normal pressure hydrocephalus (NPH). However, only a limited number of patients have been studied for assessing the predictive accuracy of ELD. Therefore, the value of ELD in predicting the outcome after a ventriculoperitoneal shunt in patients with presumed NPH was assessed. Methods: All patients with presumed NPH were invited to participate in this study. Clinical assessment, MRI, and neuropsychological evaluation were followed by a lumbar CSF tap test consisting of removing 40 ml CSF. When this test resulted in marked clinical improvement of gait impairment, mental disturbances, or both, the patient was shunted without further tests. In patients with either questionable or no improvement after the CSF tap test, ELD was carried out. The value of ELD for predicting the outcome after shunting was calculated by correlating the results of ELD with that of ventriculoperitoneal shunting. Results: Between January 1994 and December 2000, 49 presumed NPH patients from three institutes were included. Forty three had idiopathic, and the remaining six had secondary NPH. Forty eight patients were shunted; 39 had an ELD of whom 38 completed the test. After 2 months 35 of the 48 (73%) shunted patients had improved. The predictive value of a positive ELD was 87% (95% confidence interval (95% CI) 62–98) and that of a negative ELD 36% (95% CI 17–59). In two patients serious test related complications (meningitis) occurred without residual deficit. Conclusion: The study suggests that although the predictive value of a positive ELD is high, that of a negative ELD is deceptively low because of the high rate of false negative results. The costs and invasiveness of the test and the possibility of serious test related complications further limits its usefulness in managing patients with presumed NPH. PMID:11909911

Implementation and Initial Validation of the APS English Test [and] The APS English-Writing Test at Golden West College: Evidence for Predictive Validity.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Isonio, Steven

In May 1991, Golden West College (California) conducted a validation study of the English portion of the Assessment and Placement Services for Community Colleges (APS), followed by a predictive validity study in July 1991. The initial study was designed to aid in the implementation of the new test at GWC by comparing data on APS use at other…

Prediction of skull fracture risk for children 0-9 months old through validated parametric finite element model and cadaver test reconstruction.

PubMed

Li, Zhigang; Liu, Weiguo; Zhang, Jinhuan; Hu, Jingwen

2015-09-01

Skull fracture is one of the most common pediatric traumas. However, injury assessment tools for predicting pediatric skull fracture risk is not well established mainly due to the lack of cadaver tests. Weber conducted 50 pediatric cadaver drop tests for forensic research on child abuse in the mid-1980s (Experimental studies of skull fractures in infants, Z Rechtsmed. 92: 87-94, 1984; Biomechanical fragility of the infant skull, Z Rechtsmed. 94: 93-101, 1985). To our knowledge, these studies contained the largest sample size among pediatric cadaver tests in the literature. However, the lack of injury measurements limited their direct application in investigating pediatric skull fracture risks. In this study, 50 pediatric cadaver tests from Weber's studies were reconstructed using a parametric pediatric head finite element (FE) model which were morphed into subjects with ages, head sizes/shapes, and skull thickness values that reported in the tests. The skull fracture risk curves for infants from 0 to 9 months old were developed based on the model-predicted head injury measures through logistic regression analysis. It was found that the model-predicted stress responses in the skull (maximal von Mises stress, maximal shear stress, and maximal first principal stress) were better predictors than global kinematic-based injury measures (peak head acceleration and head injury criterion (HIC)) in predicting pediatric skull fracture. This study demonstrated the feasibility of using age- and size/shape-appropriate head FE models to predict pediatric head injuries. Such models can account for the morphological variations among the subjects, which cannot be considered by a single FE human model.

Physical function and self-rated health status as predictors of mortality: results from longitudinal analysis in the ilSIRENTE study.

PubMed

Cesari, Matteo; Onder, Graziano; Zamboni, Valentina; Manini, Todd; Shorr, Ronald I; Russo, Andrea; Bernabei, Roberto; Pahor, Marco; Landi, Francesco

2008-12-22

Physical function measures have been shown to predict negative health-related events in older persons, including mortality. These markers of functioning may interact with the self-rated health (SRH) in the prediction of events. Aim of the present study is to compare the predictive value for mortality of measures of physical function and SRH status, and test their possible interactions. Data are from 335 older persons aged >or= 80 years (mean age 85.6 years) enrolled in the "Invecchiamento e Longevità nel Sirente" (ilSIRENTE) study. The predictive values for mortality of 4-meter walk test, Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), hand grip strength, Activities of Daily Living (ADL) scale, Instrumental ADL (IADL) scale, and a SRH scale were compared using proportional hazard models. Kaplan-Meier survival curves for mortality and Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analyses were also computed to estimate the predictive value of the independent variables of interest for mortality (alone and in combination). During the 24-month follow-up (mean 1.8 years), 71 (21.2%) events occurred in the study sample. All the tested variables were able to significantly predict mortality. No significant interaction was reported between physical function measures and SRH. The SPPB score was the strongest predictor of overall mortality after adjustment for potential confounders (per SD increase; HR 0.64; 95%CI 0.48-0.86). A similar predictive value was showed by the SRH (per SD increase; HR 0.76; 95%CI 0.59-0.97). The chair stand test was the SPPB subtask showing the highest prognostic value. All the tested measures are able to predict mortality with different extents, but strongest results were obtained from the SPPB and the SRH. The chair stand test may be as useful as the complete SPPB in estimating the mortality risk.

An analysis of the relationship of seven selected variables to State Board Test Pool Examination performance of the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, College of Nursing.

PubMed

Sharp, T G

1984-02-01

The study was designed to determine whether any one of seven selected variables or a combination of the variables is predictive of performance on the State Board Test Pool Examination. The selected variables studied were: high school grade point average (HSGPA), The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, College of Nursing grade point average (GPA), and American College Test Assessment (ACT) standard scores (English, ENG; mathematics, MA; social studies, SS; natural sciences, NSC; composite, COMP). Data utilized were from graduates of the baccalaureate program of The University of Tennessee, Knoxville, College of Nursing from 1974 through 1979. The sample of 322 was selected from a total population of 572. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) was designed to accomplish analysis of the predictive relationship of each of the seven selected variables to State Board Test Pool Examination performance (result of pass or fail), a stepwise discriminant analysis was designed for determining the predictive relationship of the strongest combination of the independent variables to overall State Board Test Pool Examination performance (result of pass or fail), and stepwise multiple regression analysis was designed to determine the strongest predictive combination of selected variables for each of the five subexams of the State Board Test Pool Examination. The selected variables were each found to be predictive of SBTPE performance (result of pass or fail). The strongest combination for predicting SBTPE performance (result of pass or fail) was found to be GPA, MA, and NSC.

Three Tests of the Learned Helplessness Model of Depression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Blaney, Paul H.; Willis, Max H.

1978-01-01

Three studies, testing predictions derived from Seligman's helplessness model of depression and generally supported by earlier research, are reported. The first addressed the finding that depressed individuals evidence a perception of noncontingency, the second tested the prediction that undergraduates in whom helplessness had been induced would…

Validity of the Optometry Admission Test in Predicting Performance in Schools and Colleges of Optometry.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kramer, Gene A.; Johnston, JoElle

1997-01-01

A study examined the relationship between Optometry Admission Test scores and pre-optometry or undergraduate grade point average (GPA) with first and second year performance in optometry schools. The test's predictive validity was limited but significant, and comparable to those reported for other admission tests. In addition, the scores…

The Use of Psychological Tests in Predicting Vocational Success of Disadvantaged Adults.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Stanley, Charlton S.

A study of the relationship between certain test scores and probable training and vocational success was made. Examined were three major training areas: power sewing machine, nurse aide, and clerical office work. Six tests were tested for their ability to predict success: the WAIS Revised Beta; Purdue Pegboard; English, California Surveys of…

Maydays and Murphies: A Study of the Effect of Organizational Design, Task, and Stress on Organizational Performance

DTIC Science & Technology

1992-07-29

provide a series of hypotheses which we can test both with human experiments and by using real organizational data. Since human experiments are costly to...able to predict organizational performance (e.g., Mackenzie, 1978; Krackhardt, 1989). Rarely have they been tested and contrasted. The formal...also tested and contrasted the predictability of existing measures of organizational design. They found that no single measure predicted performance

Prediction of pelvic pathology in subfertile women with combined Chlamydia antibody and CA-125 tests.

PubMed

Penninx, Josien; Brandes, Monique; de Bruin, Jan Peter; Schneeberger, Peter M; Hamilton, Carl J C M

2009-12-01

Chlamydia antibody test (CAT) has been proposed to predict tubal disease. A correlation between CA-125 and the extent of endometriosis has been found by others. In this study we explored whether a combination of the two tests adds to the predictive value of the individual tests for predicting tubal disease or endometriosis. We also used the combination of tests as a new index test to screen for severe pelvic pathology. This retrospective study compares the findings of 240 laparoscopies with the serological test results. Findings were classified according to the existing ASRM scoring systems for adnexal adhesions, distal tubal occlusion and endometriosis. Severe pelvic pathology was defined as the presence of ASRM classes III and IV tubal disease or ASRM classes III and IV endometriosis. The predictive value was calculated for both tests separately and for the combined test. The combined test was positive if at least one test result was abnormal (CAT positive and/or CA-125 > or =35 IU/ml). 67/240 women had tubal disease, 81/240 had some degree of endometriosis. The odds ratios (ORs) of the CAT and the combined test to diagnose severe tubal disease were 6.6 (2.6-17.0) and 7.3 (2.9-19.3), respectively. The ORs of the CA-125 and the combined test to diagnose severe endometriosis were 15.6 (6.2-40.2) and 3.0 (1.2-8.0), respectively. Severe pelvic pathology was present in 65/240 women (27%). The ORs for severe pelvic pathology of the CAT, CA-125 and the combined test were 2.5 (1.4-5.3), 4.9 (1.9-9.6) and 6.6 (3.3-13.4), respectively. If the combined test was normal 15 out 131 women (11%) were shown to have severe pelvic pathology. The combined test adds hardly anything to the predictive value of CAT alone to diagnose severe tubal disease. The combined test is better than the CAT to predict severe pelvic pathology, but is not significantly better than the CA-125. If both the CAT and CA-125 are normal one could consider not performing a laparoscopy.

The prospect of predictive testing for personal risk: attitudes and decision making.

PubMed

Wroe, A L; Salkovskis, P M; Rimes, K A

1998-06-01

As predictive tests for medical problems such as genetic disorders become more widely available, it becomes increasingly important to understand the processes involved in the decision whether or not to seek testing. This study investigates the decision to pursue the possibility of testing. Individuals (one group who had already contemplated the possibility of predictive testing and one group who had not) were asked to consider predictive testing for several diseases. They rated the likelihood of opting for testing and specified the reasons which they believed had affected their decision. The ratio of the numbers of reasons stated for testing and the numbers of reasons stated against testing was a good predictor of the stated likelihood of testing, particularly when the reasons were weighted by utility (importance). Those who had previously contemplated testing specified more emotional reasons. It is proposed that the decision process is internally logical although it may seem illogical to others due to there being idiosyncratic premises (or reasons) upon which the decision is based. It is concluded that the Utility Theory is a useful basis for describing how people make decisions related to predictive testing; modifications of the theory are proposed.

Differential Prediction of College Performance between Gender.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Patton, Timothy K.

Researchers in the past have found discrepancies in the prediction of college grade point average (GPA) between genders with the use of standardized tests such as the Scholastic Achievement Test (SAT) and the American College Test (ACT). These differences were studied to determine if the potential differences could be attributed to differential…

Sensitivity, Specificity, Predictive Values, and Accuracy of Three Diagnostic Tests to Predict Inferior Alveolar Nerve Blockade Failure in Symptomatic Irreversible Pulpitis

PubMed Central

Rodríguez-Wong, Laura; Noguera-González, Danny; Esparza-Villalpando, Vicente; Montero-Aguilar, Mauricio

2017-01-01

Introduction The inferior alveolar nerve block (IANB) is the most common anesthetic technique used on mandibular teeth during root canal treatment. Its success in the presence of preoperative inflammation is still controversial. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and accuracy of three diagnostic tests used to predict IANB failure in symptomatic irreversible pulpitis (SIP). Methodology A cross-sectional study was carried out on the mandibular molars of 53 patients with SIP. All patients received a single cartridge of mepivacaine 2% with 1 : 100000 epinephrine using the IANB technique. Three diagnostic clinical tests were performed to detect anesthetic failure. Anesthetic failure was defined as a positive painful response to any of the three tests. Sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, accuracy, and ROC curves were calculated and compared and significant differences were analyzed. Results IANB failure was determined in 71.7% of the patients. The sensitivity scores for the three tests (lip numbness, the cold stimuli test, and responsiveness during endodontic access) were 0.03, 0.35, and 0.55, respectively, and the specificity score was determined as 1 for all of the tests. Clinically, none of the evaluated tests demonstrated a high enough accuracy (0.30, 0.53, and 0.68 for lip numbness, the cold stimuli test, and responsiveness during endodontic access, resp.). A comparison of the areas under the curve in the ROC analyses showed statistically significant differences between the three tests (p < 0.05). Conclusion None of the analyzed tests demonstrated a high enough accuracy to be considered a reliable diagnostic tool for the prediction of anesthetic failure. PMID:28694714

The development and testing of a skin tear risk assessment tool.

PubMed

Newall, Nelly; Lewin, Gill F; Bulsara, Max K; Carville, Keryln J; Leslie, Gavin D; Roberts, Pam A

2017-02-01

The aim of the present study is to develop a reliable and valid skin tear risk assessment tool. The six characteristics identified in a previous case control study as constituting the best risk model for skin tear development were used to construct a risk assessment tool. The ability of the tool to predict skin tear development was then tested in a prospective study. Between August 2012 and September 2013, 1466 tertiary hospital patients were assessed at admission and followed up for 10 days to see if they developed a skin tear. The predictive validity of the tool was assessed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. When the tool was found not to have performed as well as hoped, secondary analyses were performed to determine whether a potentially better performing risk model could be identified. The tool was found to have high sensitivity but low specificity and therefore have inadequate predictive validity. Secondary analysis of the combined data from this and the previous case control study identified an alternative better performing risk model. The tool developed and tested in this study was found to have inadequate predictive validity. The predictive validity of an alternative, more parsimonious model now needs to be tested. © 2015 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Stereo tests as a screening tool for strabismus: which is the best choice?

PubMed Central

Ancona, Chiara; Stoppani, Monica; Odazio, Veronica; La Spina, Carlo; Corradetti, Giulia; Bandello, Francesco

2014-01-01

Purpose To compare four stereo tests (Lang I, Lang II, Titmus, and TNO) and assess their effectiveness. The main focus of this study is to identify the most useful stereo test as a challenging tool in the screening of strabismus. Patients and methods A total of 143 Caucasian subjects, 74 males (52%) and 69 females (48%), aged between 4 years and 78 years (mean age 19.09±15.12 years) were examined at our Strabismus Service (Scientific Institute San Raffaele Hospital, Milan, Italy) and included in this observational cross-sectional study. Subjects recruited in this study were either affected by strabismus, including microstrabismic patients, or healthy volunteers. Subjects affected by ophthalmological diseases, other than strabismus, were excluded. All patients underwent both ophthalmological and orthoptic examination, including stereo tests, Hirschberg Corneal Light Reflex Test, Worth Four-Dot Test, the 4 Prism Diopter Base-Out Test, Cover Testing, Bruckner Test, visual acuity, automated refraction under 1% tropicamide cycloplegia and thereafter, posterior pole evaluation. Results All data were processed using the IBM SPSS Statistics, Version 2.0, to perform all statistical calculations. The main finding of this study is that Lang I stereo test achieved the highest sensitivity (89.8%) and specificity (95.2%) in detecting strabismus, including microstrabismus as well, compared to all the other stereoacuity tests. Furthermore, Lang I is the stereo test with the highest positive predictive value and negative predictive value, both greater than 90%. Conclusion The stereo test with the highest sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value is Lang I. These results suggest its applicability as a screening test for strabismus in people older than 4 years. PMID:25419114

What No Child Left Behind Leaves Behind: The Roles of IQ and Self-Control in Predicting Standardized Achievement Test Scores and Report Card Grades

PubMed Central

Duckworth, Angela L.; Quinn, Patrick D.; Tsukayama, Eli

2013-01-01

The increasing prominence of standardized testing to assess student learning motivated the current investigation. We propose that standardized achievement test scores assess competencies determined more by intelligence than by self-control, whereas report card grades assess competencies determined more by self-control than by intelligence. In particular, we suggest that intelligence helps students learn and solve problems independent of formal instruction, whereas self-control helps students study, complete homework, and behave positively in the classroom. Two longitudinal, prospective studies of middle school students support predictions from this model. In both samples, IQ predicted changes in standardized achievement test scores over time better than did self-control, whereas self-control predicted changes in report card grades over time better than did IQ. As expected, the effect of self-control on changes in report card grades was mediated in Study 2 by teacher ratings of homework completion and classroom conduct. In a third study, ratings of middle school teachers about the content and purpose of standardized achievement tests and report card grades were consistent with the proposed model. Implications for pedagogy and public policy are discussed. PMID:24072936

The Effect of the Attachment Styles and Self-Efficacy of Adolescents Preparing for University Entrance Tests in Turkey on Predicting Test Anxiety

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Erzen, Evren; Odaci, Hatice

2016-01-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of attachment styles and self-efficacy of adolescents preparing for university entrance exams in Turkey on predicting test anxieties. The study group consisted of 884 final-year high school students (423 female and 461 male) attending different types of high school, preparing for university…

Suitability of the HAM-Nat test and TMS module "basic medical-scientific understanding" for medical school selection

PubMed Central

Hissbach, Johanna; Feddersen, Lena; Sehner, Susanne; Hampe, Wolfgang

2012-01-01

Aims: Tests with natural-scientific content are predictive of the success in the first semesters of medical studies. Some universities in the German speaking countries use the ‘Test for medical studies’ (TMS) for student selection. One of its test modules, namely “medical and scientific comprehension”, measures the ability for deductive reasoning. In contrast, the Hamburg Assessment Test for Medicine, Natural Sciences (HAM-Nat) evaluates knowledge in natural sciences. In this study the predictive power of the HAM-Nat test will be compared to that of the NatDenk test, which is similar to the TMS module “medical and scientific comprehension” in content and structure. Methods: 162 medical school beginners volunteered to complete either the HAM-Nat (N=77) or the NatDenk test (N=85) in 2007. Until spring 2011, 84.2% of these successfully completed the first part of the medical state examination in Hamburg. Via different logistic regression models we tested the predictive power of high school grade point average (GPA or “Abiturnote”) and the test results (HAM-Nat and NatDenk) with regard to the study success criterion “first part of the medical state examination passed successfully up to the end of the 7th semester” (Success7Sem). The Odds Ratios (OR) for study success are reported. Results: For both test groups a significant correlation existed between test results and study success (HAM-Nat: OR=2.07; NatDenk: OR=2.58). If both admission criteria are estimated in one model, the main effects (GPA: OR=2.45; test: OR=2.32) and their interaction effect (OR=1.80) are significant in the HAM-Nat test group, whereas in the NatDenk test group only the test result (OR=2.21) significantly contributes to the variance explained. Conclusions: On their own both HAM-Nat and NatDenk have predictive power for study success, but only the HAM-Nat explains additional variance if combined with GPA. The selection according to HAM-Nat and GPA has under the current circumstances of medical school selection (many good applicants and only a limited number of available spaces) the highest predictive power of all models. PMID:23255967

The NASA aircraft noise prediction program improved propeller analysis system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nguyen, L. Cathy

1991-01-01

The improvements and the modifications of the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP) and the Propeller Analysis System (PAS) are described. Comparisons of the predictions and the test data are included in the case studies for the flat plate model in the Boundary Layer Module, for the effects of applying compressibility corrections to the lift and pressure coefficients, for the use of different weight factors in the Propeller Performance Module, for the use of the improved retarded time equation solution, and for the effect of the number grids in the Transonic Propeller Noise Module. The DNW tunnel test data of a propeller at different angles of attack and the Dowty Rotol data are compared with ANOPP predictions. The effect of the number of grids on the Transonic Propeller Noise Module predictions and the comparison of ANOPP TPN and DFP-ATP codes are studied. In addition to the above impact studies, the transonic propeller noise predictions for the SR-7, the UDF front rotor, and the support of the enroute noise test program are included.

Prediction of preterm birth in twin gestations using biophysical and biochemical tests

PubMed Central

Conde-Agudelo, Agustin; Romero, Roberto

2018-01-01

The objective of this study was to determine the performance of biophysical and biochemical tests for the prediction of preterm birth in both asymptomatic and symptomatic women with twin gestations. We identified a total of 19 tests proposed to predict preterm birth, mainly in asymptomatic women. In these women, a single measurement of cervical length with transvaginal ultrasound before 25 weeks of gestation appears to be a good test to predict preterm birth. Its clinical potential is enhanced by the evidence that vaginal progesterone administration in asymptomatic women with twin gestations and a short cervix reduces neonatal morbidity and mortality associated with spontaneous preterm delivery. Other tests proposed for the early identification of asymptomatic women at increased risk of preterm birth showed minimal to moderate predictive accuracy. None of the tests evaluated in this review meet the criteria to be considered clinically useful to predict preterm birth among patients with an episode of preterm labor. However, a negative cervicovaginal fetal fibronectin test could be useful in identifying women who are not at risk for delivering within the next week, which could avoid unnecessary hospitalization and treatment. This review underscores the need to develop accurate tests for predicting preterm birth in twin gestations. Moreover, the use of interventions in these patients based on test results should be associated with the improvement of perinatal outcomes. PMID:25072736

Prediction of preterm birth in twin gestations using biophysical and biochemical tests.

PubMed

Conde-Agudelo, Agustin; Romero, Roberto

2014-12-01

The objective of this study was to determine the performance of biophysical and biochemical tests for the prediction of preterm birth in both asymptomatic and symptomatic women with twin gestations. We identified a total of 19 tests proposed to predict preterm birth, mainly in asymptomatic women. In these women, a single measurement of cervical length with transvaginal ultrasound before 25 weeks of gestation appears to be a good test to predict preterm birth. Its clinical potential is enhanced by the evidence that vaginal progesterone administration in asymptomatic women with twin gestations and a short cervix reduces neonatal morbidity and mortality associated with spontaneous preterm delivery. Other tests proposed for the early identification of asymptomatic women at increased risk of preterm birth showed minimal to moderate predictive accuracy. None of the tests evaluated in this review meet the criteria to be considered clinically useful to predict preterm birth among patients with an episode of preterm labor. However, a negative cervicovaginal fetal fibronectin test could be useful in identifying women who are not at risk for delivering within the next week, which could avoid unnecessary hospitalization and treatment. This review underscores the need to develop accurate tests for predicting preterm birth in twin gestations. Moreover, the use of interventions in these patients based on test results should be associated with the improvement of perinatal outcomes. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The Theory of Planned Behavior as a Model of Heavy Episodic Drinking Among College Students

PubMed Central

Collins, Susan E.; Carey, Kate B.

2008-01-01

This study provided a simultaneous, confirmatory test of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) in predicting heavy episodic drinking (HED) among college students. It was hypothesized that past HED, drinking attitudes, subjective norms and drinking refusal self-efficacy would predict intention, which would in turn predict future HED. Participants consisted of 131 college drinkers (63% female) who reported having engaged in HED in the previous two weeks. Participants were recruited and completed questionnaires within the context of a larger intervention study (see Collins & Carey, 2005). Latent factor structural equation modeling was used to test the ability of the TPB to predict HED. Chi-square tests and fit indices indicated good fit for the final structural models. Self-efficacy and attitudes but not subjective norms significantly predicted baseline intention, and intention and past HED predicted future HED. Contrary to hypotheses, however, a structural model excluding past HED provided a better fit than a model including it. Although further studies must be conducted before a definitive conclusion is reached, a TPB model excluding past behavior, which is arguably more parsimonious and theory driven, may provide better prediction of HED among college drinkers than a model including past behavior. PMID:18072832

From High-Throughput Microarray-Based Screening to Clinical Application: The Development of a Second Generation Multigene Test for Breast Cancer Prognosis

PubMed Central

Brase, Jan C.; Kronenwett, Ralf; Petry, Christoph; Denkert, Carsten; Schmidt, Marcus

2013-01-01

Several multigene tests have been developed for breast cancer patients to predict the individual risk of recurrence. Most of the first generation tests rely on proliferation-associated genes and are commonly carried out in central reference laboratories. Here, we describe the development of a second generation multigene assay, the EndoPredict test, a prognostic multigene expression test for estrogen receptor (ER) positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor (HER2) negative (ER+/HER2−) breast cancer patients. The EndoPredict gene signature was initially established in a large high-throughput microarray-based screening study. The key steps for biomarker identification are discussed in detail, in comparison to the establishment of other multigene signatures. After biomarker selection, genes and algorithms were transferred to a diagnostic platform (reverse transcription quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR)) to allow for assaying formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded (FFPE) samples. A comprehensive analytical validation was performed and a prospective proficiency testing study with seven pathological laboratories finally proved that EndoPredict can be reliably used in the decentralized setting. Three independent large clinical validation studies (n = 2,257) demonstrated that EndoPredict offers independent prognostic information beyond current clinicopathological parameters and clinical guidelines. The review article summarizes several important steps that should be considered for the development process of a second generation multigene test and offers a means for transferring a microarray signature from the research laboratory to clinical practice. PMID:27605191

Prediction and perception of hazards in professional drivers: Does hazard perception skill differ between safe and less-safe fire-appliance drivers?

PubMed

Crundall, David; Kroll, Victoria

2018-05-18

Can hazard perception testing be useful for the emergency services? Previous research has found emergency response drivers' (ERDs) to perform better than controls, however these studies used clips of normal driving. In contrast, the current study filmed footage from a fire-appliance on blue-light training runs through Nottinghamshire, and endeavoured to discriminate between different groups of EDRs based on experience and collision risk. Thirty clips were selected to create two variants of the hazard perception test: a traditional push-button test requiring speeded-responses to hazards, and a prediction test that occludes at hazard onset and provides four possible outcomes for participants to choose between. Three groups of fire-appliance drivers (novices, low-risk experienced and high-risk experienced), and age-matched controls undertook both tests. The hazard perception test only discriminated between controls and all FA drivers, whereas the hazard prediction test was more sensitive, discriminating between high and low-risk experienced fire appliance drivers. Eye movement analyses suggest that the low-risk drivers were better at prioritising the hazardous precursors, leading to better predictive accuracy. These results pave the way for future assessment and training tools to supplement emergency response driver training, while supporting the growing literature that identifies hazard prediction as a more robust measure of driver safety than traditional hazard perception tests. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Updating and Not Shifting Predicts Learning Performance in Young and Middle-Aged Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gijselaers, Hieronymus J. M.; Meijs, Celeste; Neroni, Joyce; Kirschner, Paul A.; de Groot, Renate H. M.

2017-01-01

The goal of this study was to investigate whether single executive function (EF) tests were predictive for learning performance in mainly young and middle-aged adults. The tests measured shifting and updating. Processing speed was also measured. In an observational study, cognitive performance and learning performance were measured objectively in…

The Trail Making test: a study of its ability to predict falls in the acute neurological in-patient population.

PubMed

Mateen, Bilal Akhter; Bussas, Matthias; Doogan, Catherine; Waller, Denise; Saverino, Alessia; Király, Franz J; Playford, E Diane

2018-05-01

To determine whether tests of cognitive function and patient-reported outcome measures of motor function can be used to create a machine learning-based predictive tool for falls. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary neurological and neurosurgical center. In all, 337 in-patients receiving neurosurgical, neurological, or neurorehabilitation-based care. Binary (Y/N) for falling during the in-patient episode, the Trail Making Test (a measure of attention and executive function) and the Walk-12 (a patient-reported measure of physical function). The principal outcome was a fall during the in-patient stay ( n = 54). The Trail test was identified as the best predictor of falls. Moreover, addition of other variables, did not improve the prediction (Wilcoxon signed-rank P < 0.001). Classical linear statistical modeling methods were then compared with more recent machine learning based strategies, for example, random forests, neural networks, support vector machines. The random forest was the best modeling strategy when utilizing just the Trail Making Test data (Wilcoxon signed-rank P < 0.001) with 68% (± 7.7) sensitivity, and 90% (± 2.3) specificity. This study identifies a simple yet powerful machine learning (Random Forest) based predictive model for an in-patient neurological population, utilizing a single neuropsychological test of cognitive function, the Trail Making test.

[Willingness of Students of Economics to Pay for Predictive Oncological Genetic Testing - An Empirical Analysis].

PubMed

Siol, V; Lange, A; Prenzler, A; Neubauer, S; Frank, M

2017-05-01

Objectives: The present study aims to investigate the interest of young adults in predictive oncological genetic testing and their willingness to pay for such a test. Furthermore, major determinants of the 2 variables of interest were identified. Methods: 348 students of economics from the Leibniz University of Hanover were queried in July 2013 using an extensive questionnaire. Among other things, the participants were asked if they are interested in information about the probability to develop cancer in the future and their willingness to pay for such information. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and ordinal probit regressions. Additionally marginal effects were calculated. Results: About 50% of the students were interested in predictive oncological genetic testing and were willing to pay for the test. Moreover, the participants who were willing to pay for the test partly attach high monetary values to the information that could so be obtained. The study shows that the interest of the students and their willingness to pay were primarily influenced by individual attitudes and perceptions. Conclusions: The study proves that young adults were interested in predictive genetic testing and appreciate information about their probability of develop cancer someday. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Occupational-Specific Strength Predicts Astronaut-Related Task Performance in a Weighted Suit.

PubMed

Taylor, Andrew; Kotarsky, Christopher J; Bond, Colin W; Hackney, Kyle J

2018-01-01

Future space missions beyond low Earth orbit will require deconditioned astronauts to perform occupationally relevant tasks within a planetary spacesuit. The prediction of time-to-completion (TTC) of astronaut tasks will be critical for crew safety, autonomous operations, and mission success. This exploratory study determined if the addition of task-specific strength testing to current standard lower body testing would enhance the prediction of TTC in a 1-G test battery. Eight healthy participants completed NASA lower body strength tests, occupationally specific strength tests, and performed six task simulations (hand drilling, construction wrenching, incline walking, collecting weighted samples, and dragging an unresponsive crewmember to safety) in a 48-kg weighted suit. The TTC for each task was recorded and summed to obtain a total TTC for the test battery. Linear regression was used to predict total TTC with two models: 1) NASA lower body strength tests; and 2) NASA lower body strength tests + occupationally specific strength tests. Total TTC of the test battery ranged from 20.2-44.5 min. The lower body strength test alone accounted for 61% of the variability in total TTC. The addition of hand drilling and wrenching strength tests accounted for 99% of the variability in total TTC. Adding occupationally specific strength tests (hand drilling and wrenching) to standard lower body strength tests successfully predicted total TTC in a performance test battery within a weighted suit. Future research should couple these strength tests with higher fidelity task simulations to determine the utility and efficacy of task performance prediction.Taylor A, Kotarsky CJ, Bond CW, Hackney KJ. Occupational-specific strength predicts astronaut-related task performance in a weighted suit. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2018; 89(1):58-62.

The Predictive Validity of Four Intelligence Tests for School Grades: A Small Sample Longitudinal Study

PubMed Central

Gygi, Jasmin T.; Hagmann-von Arx, Priska; Schweizer, Florine; Grob, Alexander

2017-01-01

Intelligence is considered the strongest single predictor of scholastic achievement. However, little is known regarding the predictive validity of well-established intelligence tests for school grades. We analyzed the predictive validity of four widely used intelligence tests in German-speaking countries: The Intelligence and Development Scales (IDS), the Reynolds Intellectual Assessment Scales (RIAS), the Snijders-Oomen Nonverbal Intelligence Test (SON-R 6-40), and the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children (WISC-IV), which were individually administered to 103 children (Mage = 9.17 years) enrolled in regular school. School grades were collected longitudinally after 3 years (averaged school grades, mathematics, and language) and were available for 54 children (Mage = 11.77 years). All four tests significantly predicted averaged school grades. Furthermore, the IDS and the RIAS predicted both mathematics and language, while the SON-R 6-40 predicted mathematics. The WISC-IV showed no significant association with longitudinal scholastic achievement when mathematics and language were analyzed separately. The results revealed the predictive validity of currently used intelligence tests for longitudinal scholastic achievement in German-speaking countries and support their use in psychological practice, in particular for predicting averaged school grades. However, this conclusion has to be considered as preliminary due to the small sample of children observed. PMID:28348543

Impact of relationships between test and training animals and among training animals on reliability of genomic prediction.

PubMed

Wu, X; Lund, M S; Sun, D; Zhang, Q; Su, G

2015-10-01

One of the factors affecting the reliability of genomic prediction is the relationship among the animals of interest. This study investigated the reliability of genomic prediction in various scenarios with regard to the relationship between test and training animals, and among animals within the training data set. Different training data sets were generated from EuroGenomics data and a group of Nordic Holstein bulls (born in 2005 and afterwards) as a common test data set. Genomic breeding values were predicted using a genomic best linear unbiased prediction model and a Bayesian mixture model. The results showed that a closer relationship between test and training animals led to a higher reliability of genomic predictions for the test animals, while a closer relationship among training animals resulted in a lower reliability. In addition, the Bayesian mixture model in general led to a slightly higher reliability of genomic prediction, especially for the scenario of distant relationships between training and test animals. Therefore, to prevent a decrease in reliability, constant updates of the training population with animals from more recent generations are required. Moreover, a training population consisting of less-related animals is favourable for reliability of genomic prediction. © 2015 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Academic motivation, self-concept, engagement, and performance in high school: key processes from a longitudinal perspective.

PubMed

Green, Jasmine; Liem, Gregory Arief D; Martin, Andrew J; Colmar, Susan; Marsh, Herbert W; McInerney, Dennis

2012-10-01

The study tested three theoretically/conceptually hypothesized longitudinal models of academic processes leading to academic performance. Based on a longitudinal sample of 1866 high-school students across two consecutive years of high school (Time 1 and Time 2), the model with the most superior heuristic value demonstrated: (a) academic motivation and self-concept positively predicted attitudes toward school; (b) attitudes toward school positively predicted class participation and homework completion and negatively predicted absenteeism; and (c) class participation and homework completion positively predicted test performance whilst absenteeism negatively predicted test performance. Taken together, these findings provide support for the relevance of the self-system model and, particularly, the importance of examining the dynamic relationships amongst engagement factors of the model. The study highlights implications for educational and psychological theory, measurement, and intervention. Copyright © 2012 The Foundation for Professionals in Services for Adolescents. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predicting Middle Level State Standardized Test Results Using Family and Community Demographic Data

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tienken, Christopher H.; Colella, Anthony; Angelillo, Christian; Fox, Meredith; McCahill, Kevin R.; Wolfe, Adam

2017-01-01

The use of standardized test results to drive school administrator evaluations pervades education policymaking in more than 40 states. However, the results of state standardized tests are strongly influenced by non-school factors. The models of best fit (n = 18) from this correlational, explanatory, longitudinal study predicted accurately the…

Predicting Examination Performance Using an Expanded Integrated Hierarchical Model of Test Emotions and Achievement Goals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Putwain, Dave; Deveney, Carolyn

2009-01-01

The aim of this study was to examine an expanded integrative hierarchical model of test emotions and achievement goal orientations in predicting the examination performance of undergraduate students. Achievement goals were theorised as mediating the relationship between test emotions and performance. 120 undergraduate students completed…

The Comparative Effects of Prediction/Discussion-Based Learning Cycle, Conceptual Change Text, and Traditional Instructions on Student Understanding of Genetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yilmaz, Diba; Tekkaya, Ceren; Sungur, Semra

2011-03-01

The present study examined the comparative effects of a prediction/discussion-based learning cycle, conceptual change text (CCT), and traditional instructions on students' understanding of genetics concepts. A quasi-experimental research design of the pre-test-post-test non-equivalent control group was adopted. The three intact classes, taught by the same science teacher, were randomly assigned as prediction/discussion-based learning cycle class (N = 30), CCT class (N = 25), and traditional class (N = 26). Participants completed the genetics concept test as pre-test, post-test, and delayed post-test to examine the effects of instructional strategies on their genetics understanding and retention. While the dependent variable of this study was students' understanding of genetics, the independent variables were time (Time 1, Time 2, and Time 3) and mode of instruction. The mixed between-within subjects analysis of variance revealed that students in both prediction/discussion-based learning cycle and CCT groups understood the genetics concepts and retained their knowledge significantly better than students in the traditional instruction group.

Sensitivity and specificity of subacute computerized neurocognitive testing and symptom evaluation in predicting outcomes after sports-related concussion.

PubMed

Lau, Brian C; Collins, Michael W; Lovell, Mark R

2011-06-01

Concussions affect an estimated 136 000 high school athletes yearly. Computerized neurocognitive testing has been shown to be appropriately sensitive and specific in diagnosing concussions, but no studies have assessed its utility to predict length of recovery. Determining prognosis during subacute recovery after sports concussion will help clinicians more confidently address return-to-play and academic decisions. To quantify the prognostic ability of computerized neurocognitive testing in combination with symptoms during the subacute recovery phase from sports-related concussion. Cohort study (prognosis); Level of evidence, 2. In sum, 108 male high school football athletes completed a computer-based neurocognitive test battery within 2.23 days of injury and were followed until returned to play as set by international guidelines. Athletes were grouped into protracted recovery (>14 days; n = 50) or short-recovery (≤14 days; n = 58). Separate discriminant function analyses were performed using total symptom score on Post-Concussion Symptom Scale, symptom clusters (migraine, cognitive, sleep, neuropsychiatric), and Immediate Postconcussion Assessment and Cognitive Testing neurocognitive scores (verbal memory, visual memory, reaction time, processing speed). Multiple discriminant function analyses revealed that the combination of 4 symptom clusters and 4 neurocognitive composite scores had the highest sensitivity (65.22%), specificity (80.36%), positive predictive value (73.17%), and negative predictive value (73.80%) in predicting protracted recovery. Discriminant function analyses of total symptoms on the Post-Concussion Symptom Scale alone had a sensitivity of 40.81%; specificity, 79.31%; positive predictive value, 62.50%; and negative predictive value, 61.33%. The 4 symptom clusters alone discriminant function analyses had a sensitivity of 46.94%; specificity, 77.20%; positive predictive value, 63.90%; and negative predictive value, 62.86%. Discriminant function analyses of the 4 computerized neurocognitive scores alone had a sensitivity of 53.20%; specificity, 75.44%; positive predictive value, 64.10%; and negative predictive value, 66.15%. The use of computerized neurocognitive testing in conjunction with symptom clusters results improves sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of predicting protracted recovery compared with each used alone. There is also a net increase in sensitivity of 24.41% when using neurocognitive testing and symptom clusters together compared with using total symptoms on Post-Concussion Symptom Scale alone.

Presymptomatic electrophysiological tests predict clinical onset and survival in SOD1(G93A) ALS mice.

PubMed

Mancuso, Renzo; Osta, Rosario; Navarro, Xavier

2014-12-01

We assessed the predictive value of electrophysiological tests as a marker of clinical disease onset and survival in superoxide-dismutase 1 (SOD1)(G93A) mice. We evaluated the accuracy of electrophysiological tests in differentiating transgenic versus wild-type mice. We made a correlation analysis of electrophysiological parameters and the onset of symptoms, survival, and number of spinal motoneurons. Presymptomatic electrophysiological tests show great accuracy in differentiating transgenic versus wild-type mice, with the most sensitive parameter being the tibialis anterior compound muscle action potential (CMAP) amplitude. The CMAP amplitude at age 10 weeks correlated significantly with clinical disease onset and survival. Electrophysiological tests increased their survival prediction accuracy when evaluated at later stages of the disease and also predicted the amount of lumbar spinal motoneuron preservation. Electrophysiological tests predict clinical disease onset, survival, and spinal motoneuron preservation in SOD1(G93A) mice. This is a methodological improvement for preclinical studies. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Effective prediction of biodiversity in tidal flat habitats using an artificial neural network.

PubMed

Yoo, Jae-Won; Lee, Yong-Woo; Lee, Chang-Gun; Kim, Chang-Soo

2013-02-01

Accurate predictions of benthic macrofaunal biodiversity greatly benefit the efficient planning and management of habitat restoration efforts in tidal flat habitats. Artificial neural network (ANN) prediction models for such biodiversity were developed and tested based on 13 biophysical variables, collected from 50 sites of tidal flats along the coast of Korea during 1991-2006. The developed model showed high predictions during training, cross-validation and testing. Besides the training and testing procedures, an independent dataset from a different time period (2007-2010) was used to test the robustness and practical usage of the model. High prediction on the independent dataset (r = 0.84) validated the networks proper learning of predictive relationship and its generality. Key influential variables identified by follow-up sensitivity analyses were related with topographic dimension, environmental heterogeneity, and water column properties. Study demonstrates the successful application of ANN for the accurate prediction of benthic macrofaunal biodiversity and understanding of dynamics of candidate variables. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Accuracy of the Timed Up and Go test for predicting sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients.

PubMed

Martinez, Bruno Prata; Gomes, Isabela Barboza; Oliveira, Carolina Santana de; Ramos, Isis Resende; Rocha, Mônica Diniz Marques; Forgiarini Júnior, Luiz Alberto; Camelier, Fernanda Warken Rosa; Camelier, Aquiles Assunção

2015-05-01

The ability of the Timed Up and Go test to predict sarcopenia has not been evaluated previously. The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of the Timed Up and Go test for predicting sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients. This cross-sectional study analyzed 68 elderly patients (≥60 years of age) in a private hospital in the city of Salvador-BA, Brazil, between the 1st and 5th day of hospitalization. The predictive variable was the Timed Up and Go test score, and the outcome of interest was the presence of sarcopenia (reduced muscle mass associated with a reduction in handgrip strength and/or weak physical performance in a 6-m gait-speed test). After the descriptive data analyses, the sensitivity, specificity and accuracy of a test using the predictive variable to predict the presence of sarcopenia were calculated. In total, 68 elderly individuals, with a mean age 70.4±7.7 years, were evaluated. The subjects had a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 5.35±1.97. Most (64.7%) of the subjects had a clinical admission profile; the main reasons for hospitalization were cardiovascular disorders (22.1%), pneumonia (19.1%) and abdominal disorders (10.2%). The frequency of sarcopenia in the sample was 22.1%, and the mean length of time spent performing the Timed Up and Go test was 10.02±5.38 s. A time longer than or equal to a cutoff of 10.85 s on the Timed Up and Go test predicted sarcopenia with a sensitivity of 67% and a specificity of 88.7%. The accuracy of this cutoff for the Timed Up and Go test was good (0.80; IC=0.66-0.94; p=0.002). The Timed Up and Go test was shown to be a predictor of sarcopenia in elderly hospitalized patients.

Limited diagnostic accuracy of magnetic resonance imaging and clinical tests for detecting partial-thickness tears of the rotator cuff.

PubMed

Brockmeyer, Matthias; Schmitt, Cornelia; Haupert, Alexander; Kohn, Dieter; Lorbach, Olaf

2017-12-01

The reliable diagnosis of partial-thickness tears of the rotator cuff is still elusive in clinical practise. Therefore, the purpose of the study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of MR imaging and clinical tests for detecting partial-thickness tears of the rotator cuff as well as the combination of these parameters. 334 consecutive shoulder arthroscopies for rotator cuff pathologies performed during the time period between 2010 and 2012 were analyzed retrospectively for the findings of common clinical signs for rotator cuff lesions and preoperative MR imaging. These were compared with the intraoperative arthroscopic findings as "gold standard". The reports of the MR imaging were evaluated with regard to the integrity of the rotator cuff. The Ellman Classification was used to define partial-thickness tears of the rotator cuff in accordance with the arthroscopic findings. Descriptive statistics, sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive value were calculated. MR imaging showed 80 partial-thickness and 70 full-thickness tears of the rotator cuff. The arthroscopic examination confirmed 64 partial-thickness tears of which 52 needed debridement or refixation of the rotator cuff. Sensitivity for MR imaging to identify partial-thickness tears was 51.6%, specificity 77.2%, positive predictive value 41.3% and negative predictive value 83.7%. For the Jobe-test, sensitivity was 64.1%, specificity 43.2%, positive predictive value 25.9% and negative predictive value 79.5%. Sensitivity for the Impingement-sign was 76.7%, specificity 46.6%, positive predictive value 30.8% and negative predictive value 86.5%. For the combination of MR imaging, Jobe-test and Impingement-sign sensitivity was 46.9%, specificity 85.4%, positive predictive value 50% and negative predictive value 83.8%. The diagnostic accuracy of MR imaging and clinical tests (Jobe-test and Impingement-sign) alone is limited for detecting partial-thickness tears of the rotator cuff. Additionally, the combination of MR imaging and clinical tests does not improve diagnostic accuracy. Level II, Diagnostic study.

Experience over fifteen years with a protocol for predictive testing for Huntington disease.

PubMed

Dufrasne, Suzanne; Roy, Madeleine; Galvez, Maria; Rosenblatt, David S

2011-04-01

To compile a comprehensive profile of the participants who had predictive testing from Huntington disease (HD) between 1994 and 2008 in Montreal, Canada. This is a retrospective cohort study. The predictive testing protocol consisted of a telephone interview to give information about predictive testing and collect demographic data; a psychological assessment and counseling session; a session focused on medical and family history of HD; a session reserved for genetic counseling; a session where results were given to participants; and a follow-up telephone interview. A total of 181 applicants requested presymptomatic testing. 135 applicants (77 women and 58 men) completed the protocol and received test results while 40 withdrew. Of the latter, 3 manifested symptoms of the disease and were referred to a neurologist or psychiatrist, and 3 had previously been tested by linkage analysis. Participants usually mentioned more than one reason for requesting predictive testing but the most frequent was to put an end to uncertainty concerning their risk of illness. The proportion of positive and negatives test results was 40% and 54.1% respectively, significantly different from the expected 50% (p<0.01). Prenatal testing was not frequently requested. All the participants expressed satisfaction regarding their decision to be tested. None to our knowledge had a catastrophic reaction (major depressive disorder or psychiatric hospitalization, declared suicide attempt or suicide). Our study highlights that preparation for receiving test results is a psychologically complex process for which appropriate support in a timely fashion is critical. We feel that a cautious and ethical case by case approach remains essential and that high standards of testing should be maintained because of the far reaching impact of test results. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Strong claims and weak evidence: reassessing the predictive validity of the IAT.

PubMed

Blanton, Hart; Jaccard, James; Klick, Jonathan; Mellers, Barbara; Mitchell, Gregory; Tetlock, Philip E

2009-05-01

The authors reanalyzed data from 2 influential studies-A. R. McConnell and J. M. Leibold and J. C. Ziegert and P. J. Hanges-that explore links between implicit bias and discriminatory behavior and that have been invoked to support strong claims about the predictive validity of the Implicit Association Test. In both of these studies, the inclusion of race Implicit Association Test scores in regression models reduced prediction errors by only tiny amounts, and Implicit Association Test scores did not permit prediction of individual-level behaviors. Furthermore, the results were not robust when the impact of rater reliability, statistical specifications, and/or outliers were taken into account, and reanalysis of A. R. McConnell & J. M. Leibold (2001) revealed a pattern of behavior consistent with a pro-Black behavioral bias, rather than the anti-Black bias suggested in the original study. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Analytical and Experimental Characterization of Gravity Induced Deformations In Subscale Gossamer Structures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Johnston, John D.; Blandino, Joseph R.; McEvoy, Kiley C.

2004-01-01

The development of gossamer space structures such as solar sails and sunshields presents many challenges due to their large size and extreme flexibility. The post-deployment structural geometry exhibited during ground testing may significantly depart from the in-space configuration due to the presence of gravity-induced deformations (gravity sag) of lightly preloaded membranes. This paper describes a study carried out to characterize gravity sag in two subscale gossamer structures: a single quadrant from a 2 m, 4 quadrant square solar sail and a 1.7 m membrane layer from a multi-layer sunshield The behavior of the test articles was studied over a range of preloads and in several orientations with respect to gravity. An experimental study was carried out to measure the global surface profiles using photogrammetry, and nonlinear finite element analysis was used to predict the behavior of the test articles. Comparison of measured and predicted surface profiles shows that the finite dement analysis qualitatively predicts deformed shapes comparable to those observed in the laboratory. Quantitatively, finite element analysis predictions for peak gravity-induced deformations in both test articles were within 10% of measured values. Results from this study provide increased insight into gravity sag behavior in gossamer structures, and demonstrates the potential to analytically predict gravity-induced deformations to within reasonable accuracy.

Prediction of psychological functioning one year after the predictive test for Huntington's disease and impact of the test result on reproductive decision making.

PubMed Central

Decruyenaere, M; Evers-Kiebooms, G; Boogaerts, A; Cassiman, J J; Cloostermans, T; Demyttenaere, K; Dom, R; Fryns, J P; Van den Berghe, H

1996-01-01

For people at risk for Huntington's disease, the anxiety and uncertainty about the future may be very burdensome and may be an obstacle to personal decision making about important life issues, for example, procreation. For some at risk persons, this situation is the reason for requesting predictive DNA testing. The aim of this paper is two-fold. First, we want to evaluate whether knowing one's carrier status reduces anxiety and uncertainty and whether it facilitates decision making about procreation. Second, we endeavour to identify pretest predictors of psychological adaptation one year after the predictive test (psychometric evaluation of general anxiety, depression level, and ego strength). The impact of the predictive test result was assessed in 53 subjects tested, using pre- and post-test psychometric measurement and self-report data of follow up interviews. Mean anxiety and depression levels were significantly decreased one year after a good test result; there was no significant change in the case of a bad test result. The mean personality profile, including ego strength, remained unchanged one year after the test. The study further shows that the test result had a definite impact on reproductive decision making. Stepwise multiple regression analyses were used to select the best predictors of the subject's post-test reactions. The results indicate that a careful evaluation of pretest ego strength, depression level, and coping strategies may be helpful in predicting post-test reactions, independently of the carrier status. Test result (carrier/ non-carrier), gender, and age did not significantly contribute to the prediction. About one third of the variance of post-test anxiety and depression level and more than half of the variance of ego strength was explained, implying that other psychological or social aspects should also be taken into account when predicting individual post-test reactions. PMID:8880572

Habitat islands and the equilibrium theory of island biogeography: testing some predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brown, M.; Dinsmore, J.J.

1988-01-01

Species-area data from a study of marsh birds are used to test five predictions generated by the equilibrium theory of island biogeography. Three predictions are supported: we found a significant species-area relationship, a non-zero level of turnover, and a variance-mean ratio of 0.5. One prediction is rejected: the extinction rates were not greater on small islands. The results of one test are equivocal: the number of species on each island was not always the same. As Gilbert (1980) suggests, a strong species-area relationship alone does not validate the theory. The avian communities we studied were on habitat islands, not true islands, and underwent complete extinction annually. Thus caution must be used before applying the theory to these and other habitat islands.

Risk-Based, Hypothesis-Driven Framework for Hydrological Field Campaigns with Case Studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harken, B.; Rubin, Y.

2014-12-01

There are several stages in any hydrological modeling campaign, including: formulation and analysis of a priori information, data acquisition through field campaigns, inverse modeling, and prediction of some environmental performance metric (EPM). The EPM being predicted could be, for example, contaminant concentration or plume travel time. These predictions often have significant bearing on a decision that must be made. Examples include: how to allocate limited remediation resources between contaminated groundwater sites or where to place a waste repository site. Answering such questions depends on predictions of EPMs using forward models as well as levels of uncertainty related to these predictions. Uncertainty in EPM predictions stems from uncertainty in model parameters, which can be reduced by measurements taken in field campaigns. The costly nature of field measurements motivates a rational basis for determining a measurement strategy that is optimal with respect to the uncertainty in the EPM prediction. The tool of hypothesis testing allows this uncertainty to be quantified by computing the significance of the test resulting from a proposed field campaign. The significance of the test gives a rational basis for determining the optimality of a proposed field campaign. This hypothesis testing framework is demonstrated and discussed using various synthetic case studies. This study involves contaminated aquifers where a decision must be made based on prediction of when a contaminant will arrive at a specified location. The EPM, in this case contaminant travel time, is cast into the hypothesis testing framework. The null hypothesis states that the contaminant plume will arrive at the specified location before a critical amount of time passes, and the alternative hypothesis states that the plume will arrive after the critical time passes. The optimality of different field campaigns is assessed by computing the significance of the test resulting from each one. Evaluating the level of significance caused by a field campaign involves steps including likelihood-based inverse modeling and semi-analytical conditional particle tracking.

Testing a Multi-Stage Screening System: Predicting Performance on Australia's National Achievement Test Using Teachers' Ratings of Academic and Social Behaviors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kettler, Ryan J.; Elliott, Stephen N.; Davies, Michael; Griffin, Patrick

2012-01-01

This study addresses the predictive validity of results from a screening system of academic enablers, with a sample of Australian elementary school students, when the criterion variable is end-of-year achievement. The investigation included (a) comparing the predictive validity of a brief criterion-referenced nomination system with more…

A Novel Strategy to Predict Carcinogenicity of Antiparasitics Based on a Combination of DNA Lesions and Bacterial Mutagenicity Tests

PubMed Central

Liu, Qianying; Lei, Zhixin; Zhu, Feng; Ihsan, Awais; Wang, Xu; Yuan, Zonghui

2017-01-01

Genotoxicity and carcinogenicity testing of pharmaceuticals prior to commercialization is requested by regulatory agencies. The bacterial mutagenicity test was considered having the highest accuracy of carcinogenic prediction. However, some evidences suggest that it always results in false-positive responses when the bacterial mutagenicity test is used to predict carcinogenicity. Along with major changes made to the International Committee on Harmonization guidance on genotoxicity testing [S2 (R1)], the old data (especially the cytotgenetic data) may not meet current guidelines. This review provides a compendium of retrievable results of genotoxicity and animal carcinogenicity of 136 antiparasitics. Neither genotoxicity nor carcinogenicity data is available for 84 (61.8%), while 52 (38.2%) have been evaluated in at least one genotoxicity or carcinogenicity study, and only 20 (14.7%) in both genotoxicity and carcinogenicity studies. Among 33 antiparasitics with at least one old result in in vitro genotoxicity, 15 (45.5%) are in agreement with the current ICH S2 (R1) guidance for data acceptance. Compared with other genotoxicity assays, the DNA lesions can significantly increase the accuracy of prediction of carcinogenicity. Together, a combination of DNA lesion and bacterial tests is a more accurate way to predict carcinogenicity. PMID:29170735

Three methods to construct predictive models using logistic regression and likelihood ratios to facilitate adjustment for pretest probability give similar results.

PubMed

Chan, Siew Foong; Deeks, Jonathan J; Macaskill, Petra; Irwig, Les

2008-01-01

To compare three predictive models based on logistic regression to estimate adjusted likelihood ratios allowing for interdependency between diagnostic variables (tests). This study was a review of the theoretical basis, assumptions, and limitations of published models; and a statistical extension of methods and application to a case study of the diagnosis of obstructive airways disease based on history and clinical examination. Albert's method includes an offset term to estimate an adjusted likelihood ratio for combinations of tests. Spiegelhalter and Knill-Jones method uses the unadjusted likelihood ratio for each test as a predictor and computes shrinkage factors to allow for interdependence. Knottnerus' method differs from the other methods because it requires sequencing of tests, which limits its application to situations where there are few tests and substantial data. Although parameter estimates differed between the models, predicted "posttest" probabilities were generally similar. Construction of predictive models using logistic regression is preferred to the independence Bayes' approach when it is important to adjust for dependency of tests errors. Methods to estimate adjusted likelihood ratios from predictive models should be considered in preference to a standard logistic regression model to facilitate ease of interpretation and application. Albert's method provides the most straightforward approach.

Revisiting the rise and fall of false recall: presentation rate effects depend on retention interval.

PubMed

Smith, Troy A; Kimball, Daniel R

2012-01-01

Leading theories of false memory predict that veridical and false recall of lists of semantically associated words can be dissociated by varying the presentation speed during study. Specifically, as presentation rate increases from milliseconds to seconds, veridical recall is predicted to increase monotonically while false recall is predicted to show a rapid rise and then a slow decrease--a pattern shown by McDermott and Watson (2001) in a study using immediate recall tests. In three experiments we tested the generality of the effects of rapid presentation rates on veridical and false memory. In Experiments 1 and 2 participants exhibited high levels of false recall on a delayed recall test, even for very fast stimulus onset asynchronies (SOA)--contrary to predictions from leading theories of false memory. When we switched to an immediate recall test in Experiment 3 we replicated the pattern predicted by the theories and observed by McDermott and Watson. Follow-up analyses further showed that the relative output position of false recalls is not affected by presentation rate, contrary to predictions from fuzzy trace theory. Implications for theories of false memory, including activation monitoring theory and fuzzy trace theory, are discussed.

Submaximal Treadmill Exercise Test to Predict VO[subscript 2]max in Fit Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vehrs, Pat R.; George, James D.; Fellingham, Gilbert W.; Plowman, Sharon A.; Dustman-Allen, Kymberli

2007-01-01

This study was designed to develop a single-stage submaximal treadmill jogging (TMJ) test to predict VO[subscript 2]max in fit adults. Participants (N = 400; men = 250 and women = 150), ages 18 to 40 years, successfully completed a maximal graded exercise test (GXT) at 1 of 3 laboratories to determine VO[subscript 2]max. The TMJ test was completed…

Tiltrotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC) Prediction Assessment and Initial Comparisons with Tram Test Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burley, Casey L.; Brooks, Thomas F.; Charles, Bruce D.; McCluer, Megan

1999-01-01

A prediction sensitivity assessment to inputs and blade modeling is presented for the TiltRotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC). For this study, the non-CFD prediction system option in TRAC is used. Here, the comprehensive rotorcraft code, CAMRAD.Mod1, coupled with the high-resolution sectional loads code HIRES, predicts unsteady blade loads to be used in the noise prediction code WOPWOP. The sensitivity of the predicted blade motions, blade airloads, wake geometry, and acoustics is examined with respect to rotor rpm, blade twist and chord, and to blade dynamic modeling. To accomplish this assessment, an interim input-deck for the TRAM test model and an input-deck for a reference test model are utilized in both rigid and elastic modes. Both of these test models are regarded as near scale models of the V-22 proprotor (tiltrotor). With basic TRAC sensitivities established, initial TRAC predictions are compared to results of an extensive test of an isolated model proprotor. The test was that of the TiltRotor Aeroacoustic Model (TRAM) conducted in the Duits-Nederlandse Windtunnel (DNW). Predictions are compared to measured noise for the proprotor operating over an extensive range of conditions. The variation of predictions demonstrates the great care that must be taken in defining the blade motion. However, even with this variability, the predictions using the different blade modeling successfully capture (bracket) the levels and trends of the noise for conditions ranging from descent to ascent.

Tiltrotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC) Prediction Assessment and Initial Comparisons With TRAM Test Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Burley, Casey L.; Brooks, Thomas F.; Charles, Bruce D.; McCluer, Megan

1999-01-01

A prediction sensitivity assessment to inputs and blade modeling is presented for the TiltRotor Aeroacoustic Code (TRAC). For this study, the non-CFD prediction system option in TRAC is used. Here, the comprehensive rotorcraft code, CAMRAD.Mod 1, coupled with the high-resolution sectional loads code HIRES, predicts unsteady blade loads to be used in the noise prediction code WOPWOP. The sensitivity of the predicted blade motions, blade airloads, wake geometry, and acoustics is examined with respect to rotor rpm, blade twist and chord, and to blade dynamic modeling. To accomplish this assessment. an interim input-deck for the TRAM test model and an input-deck for a reference test model are utilized in both rigid and elastic modes. Both of these test models are regarded as near scale models of the V-22 proprotor (tiltrotor). With basic TRAC sensitivities established, initial TRAC predictions are compared to results of an extensive test of an isolated model proprotor. The test was that of the TiltRotor Aeroacoustic Model (TRAM) conducted in the Duits-Nederlandse Windtunnel (DNW). Predictions are compared to measured noise for the proprotor operating over an extensive range of conditions. The variation of predictions demonstrates the great care that must be taken in defining the blade motion. However, even with this variability, the predictions using the different blade modeling successfully capture (bracket) the levels and trends of the noise for conditions ranging from descent to ascent.

Classification of baseline toxicants for QSAR predictions to replace fish acute toxicity studies.

PubMed

Nendza, Monika; Müller, Martin; Wenzel, Andrea

2017-03-22

Fish acute toxicity studies are required for environmental hazard and risk assessment of chemicals by national and international legislations such as REACH, the regulations of plant protection products and biocidal products, or the GHS (globally harmonised system) for classification and labelling of chemicals. Alternative methods like QSARs (quantitative structure-activity relationships) can replace many ecotoxicity tests. However, complete substitution of in vivo animal tests by in silico methods may not be realistic. For the so-called baseline toxicants, it is possible to predict the fish acute toxicity with sufficient accuracy from log K ow and, hence, valid QSARs can replace in vivo testing. In contrast, excess toxicants and chemicals not reliably classified as baseline toxicants require further in silico, in vitro or in vivo assessments. Thus, the critical task is to discriminate between baseline and excess toxicants. For fish acute toxicity, we derived a scheme based on structural alerts and physicochemical property thresholds to classify chemicals as either baseline toxicants (=predictable by QSARs) or as potential excess toxicants (=not predictable by baseline QSARs). The step-wise approach identifies baseline toxicants (true negatives) in a precautionary way to avoid false negative predictions. Therefore, a certain fraction of false positives can be tolerated, i.e. baseline toxicants without specific effects that may be tested instead of predicted. Application of the classification scheme to a new heterogeneous dataset for diverse fish species results in 40% baseline toxicants, 24% excess toxicants and 36% compounds not classified. Thus, we can conclude that replacing about half of the fish acute toxicity tests by QSAR predictions is realistic to be achieved in the short-term. The long-term goals are classification criteria also for further groups of toxicants and to replace as many in vivo fish acute toxicity tests as possible with valid QSAR predictions.

Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets.

PubMed

Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol; Jang, Huisu

2017-01-01

The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction.

Predictability of machine learning techniques to forecast the trends of market index prices: Hypothesis testing for the Korean stock markets

PubMed Central

Pyo, Sujin; Lee, Jaewook; Cha, Mincheol

2017-01-01

The prediction of the trends of stocks and index prices is one of the important issues to market participants. Investors have set trading or fiscal strategies based on the trends, and considerable research in various academic fields has been studied to forecast financial markets. This study predicts the trends of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index 200 (KOSPI 200) prices using nonparametric machine learning models: artificial neural network, support vector machines with polynomial and radial basis function kernels. In addition, this study states controversial issues and tests hypotheses about the issues. Accordingly, our results are inconsistent with those of the precedent research, which are generally considered to have high prediction performance. Moreover, Google Trends proved that they are not effective factors in predicting the KOSPI 200 index prices in our frameworks. Furthermore, the ensemble methods did not improve the accuracy of the prediction. PMID:29136004

Performance of the dipstick screening test as a predictor of negative urine culture

PubMed Central

Marques, Alexandre Gimenes; Doi, André Mario; Pasternak, Jacyr; Damascena, Márcio dos Santos; França, Carolina Nunes; Martino, Marinês Dalla Valle

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Objective To investigate whether the urine dipstick screening test can be used to predict urine culture results. Methods A retrospective study conducted between January and December 2014 based on data from 8,587 patients with a medical order for urine dipstick test, urine sediment analysis and urine culture. Sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values were determined and ROC curve analysis was performed. Results The percentage of positive cultures was 17.5%. Nitrite had 28% sensitivity and 99% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 89% and 87%, respectively. Leukocyte esterase had 79% sensitivity and 84% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 51% and 95%, respectively. The combination of positive nitrite or positive leukocyte esterase tests had 85% sensitivity and 84% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 53% and 96%, respectively. Positive urinary sediment (more than ten leukocytes per microliter) had 92% sensitivity and 71% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 40% and 98%, respectively. The combination of nitrite positive test and positive urinary sediment had 82% sensitivity and 99% specificity, with positive and negative predictive values of 91% and 98%, respectively. The combination of nitrite or leukocyte esterase positive tests and positive urinary sediment had the highest sensitivity (94%) and specificity (84%), with positive and negative predictive values of 58% and 99%, respectively. Based on ROC curve analysis, the best indicator of positive urine culture was the combination of positives leukocyte esterase or nitrite tests and positive urinary sediment, followed by positives leukocyte and nitrite tests, positive urinary sediment alone, positive leukocyte esterase test alone, positive nitrite test alone and finally association of positives nitrite and urinary sediment (AUC: 0.845, 0.844, 0.817, 0.814, 0.635 and 0.626, respectively). Conclusion A negative urine culture can be predicted by negative dipstick test results. Therefore, this test may be a reliable predictor of negative urine culture. PMID:28444086

Predicting Job Performance by Use of Ability Tests and Studying Job Satisfaction as a Moderating Variable

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ivancevich, John M.

1976-01-01

This empirically based study of 324 technicians investigated the moderating impact of job satisfaction in the prediction of job performance criteria from ability test scores. The findings suggest that the type of job satisfaction facet and the performance criterion used are important considerations when examining satisfaction as a moderator.…

Predicting Pre-Service Classroom Teachers' Civil Servant Recruitment Examination's Educational Sciences Test Scores Using Artificial Neural Networks

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Demir, Metin

2015-01-01

This study predicts the number of correct answers given by pre-service classroom teachers in Civil Servant Recruitment Examination's (CSRE) educational sciences test based on their high school grade point averages, university entrance scores, and grades (mid-term and final exams) from their undergraduate educational courses. This study was…

Staff Study on Cost and Training Effectiveness of Proposed Training Systems. TAEG Report 1.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Naval Training Equipment Center, Orlando, FL. Training Analysis and Evaluation Group.

A study began the development and initial testing of a method for predicting cost and training effectiveness of proposed training programs. A prototype Training Effectiveness and Cost Effectiveness Prediction (TECEP) model was developed and tested. The model was a method for optimization of training media allocation on the basis of fixed training…

Non-participation in predictive testing for Huntington's disease: individual decision-making, personality and avoidant behaviour in the family.

PubMed

Decruyenaere, M; Evers-Kiebooms, G; Boogaerts, A; Cloostermans, T; Cassiman, J J; Demyttenaere, K; Dom, R; Fryns, J P; Van den Berghe, H

1997-01-01

Subjective risk perception, perceived impact of Huntington's disease (HD), perceived benefits and barriers of predictive testing and personality characteristics of persons withdrawing from the predictive test programme for HD and of siblings of test applicants were studied in a mailed survey. The belief that important decisions do not need to depend on a test result and the anticipated inability to cope with a bad result played an important role in the decision not to be tested. Nevertheless half of the group who ever considered testing, still planned to undergo a test in the future. A comparison of tested and untested persons revealed that the first group is more likely to overestimate the risk than the second group, but that both groups did not significantly differ from each other regarding anxiety, ego strength and coping strategies. An intrafamilial analysis of tested and untested siblings confirmed these findings. The problems during data collection and the reasons for the dropout are an illustration of the avoidant behaviour regarding HD and the predictive test in many individuals and families.

Diagnostic strategies using physical examination are minimally useful in defining carpal tunnel syndrome in population-based research studies.

PubMed

Descatha, A; Dale, A-M; Franzblau, A; Coomes, J; Evanoff, B

2010-02-01

We evaluated the utility of physical examination manoeuvres in the prediction of carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) in a population-based research study. We studied a cohort of 1108 newly employed workers in several industries. Each worker completed a symptom questionnaire, a structured physical examination and nerve conduction study. For each hand, our CTS case definition required both median nerve conduction abnormality and symptoms classified as "classic" or "probable" on a hand diagram. We calculated the positive predictive values and likelihood ratios for physical examination manoeuvres in subjects with and without symptoms. The prevalence of CTS in our cohort was 1.2% for the right hand and 1.0% for the left hand. The likelihood ratios of a positive test for physical provocative tests ranged from 2.0 to 3.3, and those of a negative test from 0.3 to 0.9. The post-test probability of positive testing was <50% for all strategies tested. Our study found that physical examination, alone or in combination with symptoms, was not predictive of CTS in a working population. We suggest using specific symptoms as a first-level screening tool, and nerve conduction study as a confirmatory test, as a case definition strategy in research settings.

Testing prediction methods: Earthquake clustering versus the Poisson model

USGS Publications Warehouse

Michael, A.J.

1997-01-01

Testing earthquake prediction methods requires statistical techniques that compare observed success to random chance. One technique is to produce simulated earthquake catalogs and measure the relative success of predicting real and simulated earthquakes. The accuracy of these tests depends on the validity of the statistical model used to simulate the earthquakes. This study tests the effect of clustering in the statistical earthquake model on the results. Three simulation models were used to produce significance levels for a VLF earthquake prediction method. As the degree of simulated clustering increases, the statistical significance drops. Hence, the use of a seismicity model with insufficient clustering can lead to overly optimistic results. A successful method must pass the statistical tests with a model that fully replicates the observed clustering. However, a method can be rejected based on tests with a model that contains insufficient clustering. U.S. copyright. Published in 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

Furosemide/Fludrocortisone Test and Clinical Parameters to Diagnose Incomplete Distal Renal Tubular Acidosis in Kidney Stone Formers.

PubMed

Dhayat, Nasser A; Gradwell, Michael W; Pathare, Ganesh; Anderegg, Manuel; Schneider, Lisa; Luethi, David; Mattmann, Cedric; Moe, Orson W; Vogt, Bruno; Fuster, Daniel G

2017-09-07

Incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis is a well known cause of calcareous nephrolithiasis but the prevalence is unknown, mostly due to lack of accepted diagnostic tests and criteria. The ammonium chloride test is considered as gold standard for the diagnosis of incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis, but the furosemide/fludrocortisone test was recently proposed as an alternative. Because of the lack of rigorous comparative studies, the validity of the furosemide/fludrocortisone test in stone formers remains unknown. In addition, the performance of conventional, nonprovocative parameters in predicting incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis has not been studied. We conducted a prospective study in an unselected cohort of 170 stone formers that underwent sequential ammonium chloride and furosemide/fludrocortisone testing. Using the ammonium chloride test as gold standard, the prevalence of incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis was 8%. Sensitivity and specificity of the furosemide/fludrocortisone test were 77% and 85%, respectively, yielding a positive predictive value of 30% and a negative predictive value of 98%. Testing of several nonprovocative clinical parameters in the prediction of incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis revealed fasting morning urinary pH and plasma potassium as the most discriminative parameters. The combination of a fasting morning urinary threshold pH <5.3 with a plasma potassium threshold >3.8 mEq/L yielded a negative predictive value of 98% with a sensitivity of 85% and a specificity of 77% for the diagnosis of incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis. The furosemide/fludrocortisone test can be used for incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis screening in stone formers, but an abnormal furosemide/fludrocortisone test result needs confirmation by ammonium chloride testing. Our data furthermore indicate that incomplete distal renal tubular acidosis can reliably be excluded in stone formers by use of nonprovocative clinical parameters. Copyright © 2017 by the American Society of Nephrology.

RFI simulation definition study, exhibit D

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Braun, W. R.

1981-01-01

Comparative analyses of experimental and predicted effects of the radio frequency interference (RFI) environment on the Shuttle/TDRSS S-band links were performed. Specifications are defined ad ESTL test requirements are presented. Procedures for using the RFI test generator in the ESTL S-band link tests are presented and performance predictions for these links in the RFI environment are provided.

Predictive effects of teachers and schools on test scores, college attendance, and earnings.

PubMed

Chamberlain, Gary E

2013-10-22

I studied predictive effects of teachers and schools on test scores in fourth through eighth grade and outcomes later in life such as college attendance and earnings. For example, predict the fraction of a classroom attending college at age 20 given the test score for a different classroom in the same school with the same teacher and given the test score for a classroom in the same school with a different teacher. I would like to have predictive effects that condition on averages over many classrooms, with and without the same teacher. I set up a factor model that, under certain assumptions, makes this feasible. Administrative school district data in combination with tax data were used to calculate estimates and do inference.

Improve SSME power balance model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Karr, Gerald R.

1992-01-01

Effort was dedicated to development and testing of a formal strategy for reconciling uncertain test data with physically limited computational prediction. Specific weaknesses in the logical structure of the current Power Balance Model (PBM) version are described with emphasis given to the main routing subroutines BAL and DATRED. Selected results from a variational analysis of PBM predictions are compared to Technology Test Bed (TTB) variational study results to assess PBM predictive capability. The motivation for systematic integration of uncertain test data with computational predictions based on limited physical models is provided. The theoretical foundation for the reconciliation strategy developed in this effort is presented, and results of a reconciliation analysis of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) high pressure fuel side turbopump subsystem are examined.

Does a Dynamic Test of Phonological Awareness Predict Early Reading Difficulties? A Longitudinal Study from Kindergarten through Grade 1

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gellert, Anna S.; Elbro, Carsten

2017-01-01

A few studies have indicated that dynamic measures of phonological awareness may contribute uniquely to the prediction of early reading development. However, standard control measures have been few and limited by floor effects, thus limiting their predictive value. The purpose of the present study was to examine the predictive value of a dynamic…

Predicting psychopharmacological drug effects on actual driving performance (SDLP) from psychometric tests measuring driving-related skills.

PubMed

Verster, Joris C; Roth, Thomas

2012-03-01

There are various methods to examine driving ability. Comparisons between these methods and their relationship with actual on-road driving is often not determined. The objective of this study was to determine whether laboratory tests measuring driving-related skills could adequately predict on-the-road driving performance during normal traffic. Ninety-six healthy volunteers performed a standardized on-the-road driving test. Subjects were instructed to drive with a constant speed and steady lateral position within the right traffic lane. Standard deviation of lateral position (SDLP), i.e., the weaving of the car, was determined. The subjects also performed a psychometric test battery including the DSST, Sternberg memory scanning test, a tracking test, and a divided attention test. Difference scores from placebo for parameters of the psychometric tests and SDLP were computed and correlated with each other. A stepwise linear regression analysis determined the predictive validity of the laboratory test battery to SDLP. Stepwise regression analyses revealed that the combination of five parameters, hard tracking, tracking and reaction time of the divided attention test, and reaction time and percentage of errors of the Sternberg memory scanning test, together had a predictive validity of 33.4%. The psychometric tests in this test battery showed insufficient predictive validity to replace the on-the-road driving test during normal traffic.

Criterion validation of two submaximal aerobic fitness tests, the self-monitoring Fox-walk test and the Åstrand cycle test in people with rheumatoid arthritis.

PubMed

Nordgren, Birgitta; Fridén, Cecilia; Jansson, Eva; Österlund, Ted; Grooten, Wilhelmus Johannes; Opava, Christina H; Rickenlund, Anette

2014-09-17

Aerobic capacity tests are important to evaluate exercise programs and to encourage individuals to have a physically active lifestyle. Submaximal tests, if proven valid and reliable could be used for estimation of maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max). The purpose of the study was to examine the criterion-validity of the submaximal self-monitoring Fox-walk test and the submaximal Åstrand cycle test against a maximal cycle test in people with rheumatoid arthritis (RA). A secondary aim was to study the influence of different formulas for age predicted maximal heart rate when estimating VO2max by the Åstrand test. Twenty seven subjects (81% female), mean (SD) age 62 (8.1) years, diagnosed with RA since 17.9 (11.7) years, participated in the study. They performed the Fox-walk test (775 meters), the Åstrand test and the maximal cycle test (measured VO2max test). Pearson's correlation coefficients were calculated to determine the direction and strength of the association between the tests, and paired t-tests were used to test potential differences between the tests. Bland and Altman methods were used to assess whether there was any systematic disagreement between the submaximal tests and the maximal test. The correlation between the estimated and measured VO2max values were strong and ranged between r = 0.52 and r = 0.82 including the use of different formulas for age predicted maximal heart rate, when estimating VO2max by the Åstrand test. VO2max was overestimated by 30% by the Fox-walk test and underestimated by 10% by the Åstrand test corrected for age. When the different formulas for age predicted maximal heart rate were used, the results showed that two formulas better predicted maximal heart rate and consequently a more precise estimation of VO2max. Despite the fact that the Fox-walk test overestimated VO2max substantially, the test is a promising method for self-monitoring VO2max and further development of the test is encouraged. The Åstrand test should be considered as highly valid and feasible and the two newly developed formulas for predicting maximal heart rate according to age are preferable to use when estimating VO2max by the Åstrand test.

Academic aptitude as a predictor of headache proneness during college: could headache be an outcome of low test scores?

PubMed

Hovanitz, Christine A; Thatcher, Dawn Lindsay

2012-03-01

Academic work as well as compensated employment has been found adversely associated with frequent headache; headache remains a costly disorder to the person and to society. However, little is known of factors--other than prior headache complaints--that may predict headache frequency over extended periods of time. Based on previous research, effortful task engagement appears to be a contributing factor to headache onset. This suggests that relatively stable attributes that are likely to affect effort expenditure may predict headache frequency over long intervals. The goal of this study was to evaluate the predictability of headache proneness in college-attending students by college aptitude tests administered in high school. Five hundred undergraduate students enrolled in a large public, urban university completed a number of questionnaires. Official admissions records of the college aptitude tests ACT (an acronym for the original test name, the American College Testing), SAT (the Scholastic Aptitude Test), and GPA (grade point average) were obtained and compared to the report of headache frequency. The ACT test mathematics predicted headache proneness in the hypothesized direction, while the ACT English test provided conflicting data; some evidence of gender differences was suggested. While nearly all research on headache and work effectiveness has considered headache to be a cause of reduced efficiency or productivity, this study suggests that a factor which presumably affects the ease of work completion (e.g., scholastic aptitude) may predict headache, at least in some cases within the "work" environment of academia.

[Current status of the predictive genetic testing for hereditary neurological diseases in Shinshu University Hospital].

PubMed

Tanaka, Keiko; Sekijima, Yoshiki; Yoshida, Kunihiro; Mizuuchi, Asako; Yamashita, Hiromi; Tamai, Mariko; Ikeda, Shu-ichi; Fukushima, Yoshimitsu

2013-01-01

The current status of predictive genetic testing for late-onset hereditary neurological diseases in Japan is largely unknown. In this study, we analyzed data from 73 clients who visited the Division of Clinical and Molecular Genetics, Shinshu University Hospital, for the purpose of predictive genetic testing. The clients consisted of individuals with family histories of familial amyloid polyneuropathy (FAP; n=30), Huntington's disease (HD; n=16), spinocerebellar degeneration (SCD; n=14), myotonic dystrophy type 1 (DM1; n=9), familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis type 1 (ALS1; n=3), and Alzheimer's disease (AD; n=1). Forty-nine of the 73 (67.1%) clients were in their twenties or thirties. Twenty-seven of the 73 (37.0%) clients visited a medical institution within 3 months after becoming aware of predictive genetic testing. The most common reason for requesting predictive genetic testing was a need for certainty or to reduce uncertainty and anxiety. The decision-making about marriage and having a child was also a main reason in clients in the twenties and thirties. The numbers of clients who actually underwent predictive genetic testing was 22 of 30 (73.3%) in FAP, 3 of 16 (18.8%) in HD, 6 of 10 (60.0%) in SCD, 7 of 9 (77.8%) in DM1, and 0 of 3 (0%) in ALS1 (responsible gene of the disease was unknown in 4 SCD patients and an AD patient). The percentage of test usage was lower in untreatable diseases such as HD and SCD than that in FAP, suggesting that many clients changed their way of thinking on the significance of testing through multiple genetic counseling sessions. In addition, it was obvious that existence of disease-modifying therapy promoted usage of predictive genetic testing in FAP. Improvement of genetic counseling system to manage predictive genetic testing is necessary, as consultation concerning predictive genetic testing is the main motivation to visit genetic counseling clinic in many at-risk clients.

A comparison of fatigue life prediction methodologies for rotorcraft

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Everett, R. A., Jr.

1990-01-01

Because of the current U.S. Army requirement that all new rotorcraft be designed to a 'six nines' reliability on fatigue life, this study was undertaken to assess the accuracy of the current safe life philosophy using the nominal stress Palmgrem-Miner linear cumulative damage rule to predict the fatigue life of rotorcraft dynamic components. It has been shown that this methodology can predict fatigue lives that differ from test lives by more than two orders of magnitude. A further objective of this work was to compare the accuracy of this methodology to another safe life method called the local strain approach as well as to a method which predicts fatigue life based solely on crack growth data. Spectrum fatigue tests were run on notched (k(sub t) = 3.2) specimens made of 4340 steel using the Felix/28 tests fairly well, being slightly on the unconservative side of the test data. The crack growth method, which is based on 'small crack' crack growth data and a crack-closure model, also predicted the fatigue lives very well with the predicted lives being slightly longer that the mean test lives but within the experimental scatter band. The crack growth model was also able to predict the change in test lives produced by the rainflow reconstructed spectra.

Routine blood tests to predict liver fibrosis in chronic hepatitis C.

PubMed

Hsieh, Yung-Yu; Tung, Shui-Yi; Lee, Kamfai; Wu, Cheng-Shyong; Wei, Kuo-Liang; Shen, Chien-Heng; Chang, Te-Sheng; Lin, Yi-Hsiung

2012-02-28

To verify the usefulness of FibroQ for predicting fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C, compared with other noninvasive tests. This retrospective cohort study included 237 consecutive patients with chronic hepatitis C who had undergone percutaneous liver biopsy before treatment. FibroQ, aspartate aminotransferase (AST)/alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), AST to platelet ratio index, cirrhosis discriminant score, age-platelet index (API), Pohl score, FIB-4 index, and Lok's model were calculated and compared. FibroQ, FIB-4, AAR, API and Lok's model results increased significantly as fibrosis advanced (analysis of variance test: P < 0.001). FibroQ trended to be superior in predicting significant fibrosis score in chronic hepatitis C compared with other noninvasive tests. FibroQ is a simple and useful test for predicting significant fibrosis in patients with chronic hepatitis C.

TEST BIAS--VALIDITY OF THE SCHOLASTIC APTITUDE TEST FOR NEGRO AND WHITE STUDENTS IN INTEGRATED COLLEGES.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

CLEARY, T. ANNE

FOR THIS RESEARCH, A TEST WAS SAID TO BE BIASED FOR MEMBERS OF A SUBGROUP OF THE POPULATION IF, IN THE PREDICTION OF A CRITERION FOR WHICH THE TEST WAS DESIGNED, CONSISTENT NONZERO ERRORS OF PREDICTION ARE MADE FOR MEMBERS OF THE SUBGROUP. SAMPLES OF NEGRO AND WHITE STUDENTS FROM THREE INTEGRATED COLLEGES WERE STUDIED. IN THE TWO EASTERN COLLEGES,…

The Predictive Validity of Interim Assessment Scores Based on the Full-Information Bifactor Model for the Prediction of End-of-Grade Test Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Immekus, Jason C.; Atitya, Ben

2016-01-01

Interim tests are a central component of district-wide assessment systems, yet their technical quality to guide decisions (e.g., instructional) has been repeatedly questioned. In response, the study purpose was to investigate the validity of a series of English Language Arts (ELA) interim assessments in terms of dimensionality and prediction of…

Do personality traits assessed on medical school admission predict exit performance? A UK-wide longitudinal cohort study.

PubMed

MacKenzie, R K; Dowell, J; Ayansina, D; Cleland, J A

2017-05-01

Traditional methods of assessing personality traits in medical school selection have been heavily criticised. To address this at the point of selection, "non-cognitive" tests were included in the UK Clinical Aptitude Test, the most widely-used aptitude test in UK medical education (UKCAT: http://www.ukcat.ac.uk/ ). We examined the predictive validity of these non-cognitive traits with performance during and on exit from medical school. We sampled all students graduating in 2013 from the 30 UKCAT consortium medical schools. Analysis included: candidate demographics, UKCAT non-cognitive scores, medical school performance data-the Educational Performance Measure (EPM) and national exit situational judgement test (SJT) outcomes. We examined the relationships between these variables and SJT and EPM scores. Multilevel modelling was used to assess the relationships adjusting for confounders. The 3343 students who had taken the UKCAT non-cognitive tests and had both EPM and SJT data were entered into the analysis. There were four types of non-cognitive test: (1) libertariancommunitarian, (2) NACE-narcissism, aloofness, confidence and empathy, (3) MEARS-self-esteem, optimism, control, self-discipline, emotional-nondefensiveness (END) and faking, (4) an abridged version of 1 and 2 combined. Multilevel regression showed that, after correcting for demographic factors, END predicted SJT and EPM decile. Aloofness and empathy in NACE were predictive of SJT score. This is the first large-scale study examining the relationship between performance on non-cognitive selection tests and medical school exit assessments. The predictive validity of these tests was limited, and the relationships revealed do not fit neatly with theoretical expectations. This study does not support their use in selection.

Transfer of absolute and relative predictiveness in human contingency learning.

PubMed

Kattner, Florian

2015-03-01

Previous animal-learning studies have shown that the effect of the predictive history of a cue on its associability depends on whether priority was set to the absolute or relative predictiveness of that cue. The present study tested this assumption in a human contingency-learning task. In both experiments, one group of participants was trained with predictive and nonpredictive cues that were presented according to an absolute-predictiveness principle (either continuously or partially reinforced cue configurations), whereas a second group was trained with co-occurring cues that differed in predictiveness (emphasizing the relative predictive validity of the cues). In both groups, later test discriminations were learned more readily if the discriminative cues had been predictive in the previous learning stage than if they had been nonpredictive. These results imply that both the absolute and relative predictiveness of a cue lead positive transfer with regard to its associability. The data are discussed with respect to attentional models of associative learning.

Prediction of biodegradability from chemical structure: Modeling or ready biodegradation test data

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Loonen, H.; Lindgren, F.; Hansen, B.

1999-08-01

Biodegradation data were collected and evaluated for 894 substances with widely varying chemical structures. All data were determined according to the Japanese Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) I test protocol. The MITI I test is a screening test for ready biodegradability and has been described by Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) test guideline 301 C and European Union (EU) test guideline C4F. The chemicals were characterized by a set of 127 predefined structural fragments. This data set was used to develop a model for the prediction of the biodegradability of chemicals under standardized OECD and EUmore » ready biodegradation test conditions. Partial least squares (PLS) discriminant analysis was used for the model development. The model was evaluated by means of internal cross-validation and repeated external validation. The importance of various structural fragments and fragment interactions was investigated. The most important fragments include the presence of a long alkyl chain; hydroxy, ester, and acid groups (enhancing biodegradation); and the presence of one or more aromatic rings and halogen substituents (regarding biodegradation). More than 85% of the model predictions were correct for using the complete data set. The not readily biodegradable predictions were slightly better than the readily biodegradable predictions (86 vs 84%). The average percentage of correct predictions from four external validation studies was 83%. Model optimization by including fragment interactions improve the model predicting capabilities to 89%. It can be concluded that the PLS model provides predictions of high reliability for a diverse range of chemical structures. The predictions conform to the concept of readily biodegradable (or not readily biodegradable) as defined by OECD and EU test guidelines.« less

Fatigue life prediction of liquid rocket engine combustor with subscale test verification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sung, In-Kyung

Reusable rocket systems such as the Space Shuttle introduced a new era in propulsion system design for economic feasibility. Practical reusable systems require an order of magnitude increase in life. To achieve this improved methods are needed to assess failure mechanisms and to predict life cycles of rocket combustor. A general goal of the research was to demonstrate the use of subscale rocket combustor prototype in a cost-effective test program. Life limiting factors and metal behaviors under repeated loads were surveyed and reviewed. The life prediction theories are presented, with an emphasis on studies that used subscale test hardware for model validation. From this review, low cycle fatigue (LCF) and creep-fatigue interaction (ratcheting) were identified as the main life limiting factors of the combustor. Several life prediction methods such as conventional and advanced viscoplastic models were used to predict life cycle due to low cycle thermal stress, transient effects, and creep rupture damage. Creep-fatigue interaction and cyclic hardening were also investigated. A prediction method based on 2D beam theory was modified using 3D plate deformation theory to provide an extended prediction method. For experimental validation two small scale annular plug nozzle thrusters were designed, built and tested. The test article was composed of a water-cooled liner, plug annular nozzle and 200 psia precombustor that used decomposed hydrogen peroxide as the oxidizer and JP-8 as the fuel. The first combustor was tested cyclically at the Advanced Propellants and Combustion Laboratory at Purdue University. Testing was stopped after 140 cycles due to an unpredicted failure mechanism due to an increasing hot spot in the location where failure was predicted. A second combustor was designed to avoid the previous failure, however, it was over pressurized and deformed beyond repair during cold-flow test. The test results are discussed and compared to the analytical and numerical predictions. A detailed comparison was not performed, however, due to the lack of test data resulting from a failure of the test article. Some theoretical and experimental aspects such as fin effect and round corner were found to reduce the discrepancy between prediction and test results.

An online study combining the constructs from the theory of planned behaviour and protection motivation theory in predicting intention to test for chlamydia in two testing contexts.

PubMed

Powell, Rachael; Pattison, Helen M; Francis, Jill J

2016-01-01

Chlamydia is a common sexually transmitted infection that has potentially serious consequences unless detected and treated early. The health service in the UK offers clinic-based testing for chlamydia but uptake is low. Identifying the predictors of testing behaviours may inform interventions to increase uptake. Self-tests for chlamydia may facilitate testing and treatment in people who avoid clinic-based testing. Self-testing and being tested by a health care professional (HCP) involve two contrasting contexts that may influence testing behaviour. However, little is known about how predictors of behaviour differ as a function of context. In this study, theoretical models of behaviour were used to assess factors that may predict intention to test in two different contexts: self-testing and being tested by a HCP. Individuals searching for or reading about chlamydia testing online were recruited using Google Adwords. Participants completed an online questionnaire that addressed previous testing behaviour and measured constructs of the Theory of Planned Behaviour and Protection Motivation Theory, which propose a total of eight possible predictors of intention. The questionnaire was completed by 310 participants. Sufficient data for multiple regression were provided by 102 and 118 respondents for self-testing and testing by a HCP respectively. Intention to self-test was predicted by vulnerability and self-efficacy, with a trend-level effect for response efficacy. Intention to be tested by a HCP was predicted by vulnerability, attitude and subjective norm. Thus, intentions to carry out two testing behaviours with very similar goals can have different predictors depending on test context. We conclude that interventions to increase self-testing should be based on evidence specifically related to test context.

Prediction of fracture load and stiffness of the proximal femur by CT-based specimen specific finite element analysis: cadaveric validation study.

PubMed

Miura, Michiaki; Nakamura, Junichi; Matsuura, Yusuke; Wako, Yasushi; Suzuki, Takane; Hagiwara, Shigeo; Orita, Sumihisa; Inage, Kazuhide; Kawarai, Yuya; Sugano, Masahiko; Nawata, Kento; Ohtori, Seiji

2017-12-16

Finite element analysis (FEA) of the proximal femur has been previously validated with large mesh size, but these were insufficient to simulate the model with small implants in recent studies. This study aimed to validate the proximal femoral computed tomography (CT)-based specimen-specific FEA model with smaller mesh size using fresh frozen cadavers. Twenty proximal femora from 10 cadavers (mean age, 87.1 years) were examined. CT was performed on all specimens with a calibration phantom. Nonlinear FEA prediction with stance configuration was performed using Mechanical Finder (mesh,1.5 mm tetrahedral elements; shell thickness, 0.2 mm; Poisson's coefficient, 0.3), in comparison with mechanical testing. Force was applied at a fixed vertical displacement rate, and the magnitude of the applied load and displacement were continuously recorded. The fracture load and stiffness were calculated from force-displacement curve, and the correlation between mechanical testing and FEA prediction was examined. A pilot study with one femur revealed that the equations proposed by Keller for vertebra were the most reproducible for calculating Young's modulus and the yield stress of elements of the proximal femur. There was a good linear correlation between fracture loads of mechanical testing and FEA prediction (R 2 = 0.6187) and between the stiffness of mechanical testing and FEA prediction (R 2 = 0.5499). There was a good linear correlation between fracture load and stiffness (R 2 = 0.6345) in mechanical testing and an excellent correlation between these (R 2 = 0.9240) in FEA prediction. CT-based specimen-specific FEA model of the proximal femur with small element size was validated using fresh frozen cadavers. The equations proposed by Keller for vertebra were found to be the most reproducible for the proximal femur in elderly people.

Buckling Testing and Analysis of Space Shuttle Solid Rocket Motor Cylinders

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weidner, Thomas J.; Larsen, David V.; McCool, Alex (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

A series of full-scale buckling tests were performed on the space shuttle Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) cylinders. The tests were performed to determine the buckling capability of the cylinders and to provide data for analytical comparison. A nonlinear ANSYS Finite Element Analysis (FEA) model was used to represent and evaluate the testing. Analytical results demonstrated excellent correlation to test results, predicting the failure load within 5%. The analytical value was on the conservative side, predicting a lower failure load than was applied to the test. The resulting study and analysis indicated the important parameters for FEA to accurately predict buckling failure. The resulting method was subsequently used to establish the pre-launch buckling capability of the space shuttle system.

Diagnostic accuracy of tuberculous lymphadenitis fine needle aspiration biopsy confirmed by PCR as gold standard

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DSuryadi; Delyuzar; Soekimin

2018-03-01

Indonesia is the second country with the TB (tuberculosis) burden in the world. Improvement in controlling TB and reducing the complications can accelerate early diagnosis and correct treatment. PCR test is a gold standard. However, it is quite expensive for routine diagnosis. Therefore, an accurate and cheaper diagnostic method such as fine needle aspiration biopsy is needed. The study aimsto determine the accuracy of fine needle aspiration biopsy cytology in the diagnosis of tuberculous lymphadenitis. A cross-sectional analytic study was conducted to the samples from patients suspected with tuberculous lymphadenitis. The fine needle aspiration biopsy (FNAB)test was performed and confirmed by PCR test.There is a comparison to the sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of both methods. Sensitivity (92.50%), specificity (96.49%), accuracy (94.85%), positive predictive value (94.87%) and negative predictive value (94.83%) were in FNAB test compared to gold standard. We concluded that fine needle aspiration biopsy is a recommendation for a cheaper and accurate diagnostic test for tuberculous lymphadenitis diagnosis.

Validity of the Medical College Admission Test for Predicting MD-PhD Student Outcomes

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bills, James L.; VanHouten, Jacob; Grundy, Michelle M.; Chalkley, Roger; Dermody, Terence S.

2016-01-01

The Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) is a quantitative metric used by MD and MD-PhD programs to evaluate applicants for admission. This study assessed the validity of the MCAT in predicting training performance measures and career outcomes for MD-PhD students at a single institution. The study population consisted of 153 graduates of the…

Expectancy Theory as a Predictor of Grade-Point Averages, Satisfaction, and Participation in the College Environment. ASHE 1983 Annual Meeting Paper.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lincoln, Yvonna S.; And Others

The ability of Vroom's expectancy motivation theory to predict student satisfaction with the college environment, student participation at school, and student academic performance was studied. Specific objectives of the study were as follows: to test the ability of Vroom's valence model to predict student satisfaction, to test the ability of…

Prediction of heart transplant rejection with a breath test for markers of oxidative stress.

PubMed

Phillips, Michael; Boehmer, John P; Cataneo, Renee N; Cheema, Taseer; Eisen, Howard J; Fallon, John T; Fisher, Peter E; Gass, Alan; Greenberg, Joel; Kobashigawa, Jon; Mancini, Donna; Rayburn, Barry; Zucker, Mark J

2004-12-15

The Heart Allograft Rejection: Detection with Breath Alkanes in Low Levels study evaluated a breath test for oxidative stress in heart transplant recipients, and we report here a mathematical model predicting the probability of grade 3 rejection. The breath test divided the heart transplant recipients into 3 groups: positive for grade 3 rejection, negative for grade 3 rejection, and intermediate. The test was 100% sensitive for grade 3 heart transplant rejection when the p value was >/=0.98, and 100% specific when the p value was

Reducing unnecessary lab testing in the ICU with artificial intelligence.

PubMed

Cismondi, F; Celi, L A; Fialho, A S; Vieira, S M; Reti, S R; Sousa, J M C; Finkelstein, S N

2013-05-01

To reduce unnecessary lab testing by predicting when a proposed future lab test is likely to contribute information gain and thereby influence clinical management in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Recent studies have demonstrated that frequent laboratory testing does not necessarily relate to better outcomes. Data preprocessing, feature selection, and classification were performed and an artificial intelligence tool, fuzzy modeling, was used to identify lab tests that do not contribute an information gain. There were 11 input variables in total. Ten of these were derived from bedside monitor trends heart rate, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, temperature, blood pressure, and urine collections, as well as infusion products and transfusions. The final input variable was a previous value from one of the eight lab tests being predicted: calcium, PTT, hematocrit, fibrinogen, lactate, platelets, INR and hemoglobin. The outcome for each test was a binary framework defining whether a test result contributed information gain or not. Predictive modeling was applied to recognize unnecessary lab tests in a real world ICU database extract comprising 746 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Classification accuracy of necessary and unnecessary lab tests of greater than 80% was achieved for all eight lab tests. Sensitivity and specificity were satisfactory for all the outcomes. An average reduction of 50% of the lab tests was obtained. This is an improvement from previously reported similar studies with average performance 37% by [1-3]. Reducing frequent lab testing and the potential clinical and financial implications are an important issue in intensive care. In this work we present an artificial intelligence method to predict the benefit of proposed future laboratory tests. Using ICU data from 746 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding, and eleven measurements, we demonstrate high accuracy in predicting the likely information to be gained from proposed future lab testing for eight common GI related lab tests. Future work will explore applications of this approach to a range of underlying medical conditions and laboratory tests. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reducing unnecessary lab testing in the ICU with artificial intelligence

PubMed Central

Cismondi, F.; Celi, L.A.; Fialho, A.S.; Vieira, S.M.; Reti, S.R.; Sousa, J.M.C.; Finkelstein, S.N.

2017-01-01

Objectives To reduce unnecessary lab testing by predicting when a proposed future lab test is likely to contribute information gain and thereby influence clinical management in patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Recent studies have demonstrated that frequent laboratory testing does not necessarily relate to better outcomes. Design Data preprocessing, feature selection, and classification were performed and an artificial intelligence tool, fuzzy modeling, was used to identify lab tests that do not contribute an information gain. There were 11 input variables in total. Ten of these were derived from bedside monitor trends heart rate, oxygen saturation, respiratory rate, temperature, blood pressure, and urine collections, as well as infusion products and transfusions. The final input variable was a previous value from one of the eight lab tests being predicted: calcium, PTT, hematocrit, fibrinogen, lactate, platelets, INR and hemoglobin. The outcome for each test was a binary framework defining whether a test result contributed information gain or not. Patients Predictive modeling was applied to recognize unnecessary lab tests in a real world ICU database extract comprising 746 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding. Main results Classification accuracy of necessary and unnecessary lab tests of greater than 80% was achieved for all eight lab tests. Sensitivity and specificity were satisfactory for all the outcomes. An average reduction of 50% of the lab tests was obtained. This is an improvement from previously reported similar studies with average performance 37% by [1–3]. Conclusions Reducing frequent lab testing and the potential clinical and financial implications are an important issue in intensive care. In this work we present an artificial intelligence method to predict the benefit of proposed future laboratory tests. Using ICU data from 746 patients with gastrointestinal bleeding, and eleven measurements, we demonstrate high accuracy in predicting the likely information to be gained from proposed future lab testing for eight common GI related lab tests. Future work will explore applications of this approach to a range of underlying medical conditions and laboratory tests. PMID:23273628

Ethical Issues of Predictive Genetic Testing for Diabetes

PubMed Central

Haga, Susanne B.

2009-01-01

With the rising number of individuals affected with diabetes and the significant health care costs of treatment, the emphasis on prevention is key to controlling the health burden of this disease. Several genetic and genomic studies have identified genetic variants associated with increased risk to diabetes. As a result, commercial testing is available to predict an individual's genetic risk. Although the clinical benefits of testing have not yet been demonstrated, it is worth considering some of the ethical implications of testing for this common chronic disease. In this article, I discuss several issues that should be considered during the translation of predictive testing for diabetes, including familial implications, improvement of risk communication, implications for behavioral change and health outcomes, the Genetic Information Nondiscrimination Act, direct-to-consumer testing, and appropriate age of testing. PMID:20144329

A Cross-Modal Assessment of Reading Achievement in Children.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Webb, Kathryn; And Others

1982-01-01

This study examined the ability of the Listen and Look (LL) test of cross-modal perception and the Metropolitan Readiness Test (MRT) to predict reading achievement. Data from 79 first-grade pupils were analyzed. Both the LL and MRT demonstrated predictive validity. (Author/BW)

Differential Prediction of Academic Achievement in Elementary and Junior High School by Sex.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lewis, J. C.

This study examined differences in predicting achievement by sex on the Iowa Tests of Basic Skills (ITBS) from the verbal, quantitative, and nonverbal scores on the Cognitive Abilities Test (CogAT). The sample (n=10,000) consisted of all students in Grades 2, 5, and 8 who completed both tests in fall 1984. Examinations of means and standard…

A Cross-Cultural Test of Sex Bias in the Predictive Validity of Scholastic Aptitude Examinations: Some Israeli Findings.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zeidner, Moshe

1987-01-01

This study examined the cross-cultural validity of the sex bias contention with respect to standardized aptitude testing, used for academic prediction purposes in Israel. Analyses were based on the grade point average and scores of 1778 Jewish and 1017 Arab students who were administered standardized college entrance test batteries. (Author/LMO)

Testing Math or Testing Language? The Construct Validity of the KeyMath-Revised for Children with Intellectual Disability and Language Difficulties

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Rhodes, Katherine T.; Branum-Martin, Lee; Morris, Robin D.; Romski, MaryAnn; Sevcik, Rose A.

2015-01-01

Although it is often assumed that mathematics ability alone predicts mathematics test performance, linguistic demands may also predict achievement. This study examined the role of language in mathematics assessment performance for children with intellectual disability (ID) at less severe levels, on the KeyMath-Revised Inventory (KM-R) with a…

Cognitive domains that predict time to diagnosis in prodromal Huntington disease.

PubMed

Harrington, Deborah Lynn; Smith, Megan M; Zhang, Ying; Carlozzi, Noelle E; Paulsen, Jane S

2012-06-01

Prodromal Huntington's disease (prHD) is associated with a myriad of cognitive changes but the domains that best predict time to clinical diagnosis have not been studied. This is a notable gap because some domains may be more sensitive to cognitive decline, which would inform clinical trials. The present study sought to characterise cognitive domains underlying a large test battery and for the first time, evaluate their ability to predict time to diagnosis. Participants included gene negative and gene positive prHD participants who were enrolled in the PREDICT-HD study. The CAG-age product (CAP) score was the measure of an individual's genetic signature. A factor analysis of 18 tests was performed to identify sets of measures or latent factors that elucidated core constructs of tests. Factor scores were then fit to a survival model to evaluate their ability to predict time to diagnosis. Six factors were identified: (1) speed/inhibition, (2) verbal working memory, (3) motor planning/speed, (4) attention-information integration, (5) sensory-perceptual processing and (6) verbal learning/memory. Factor scores were sensitive to worsening of cognitive functioning in prHD, typically more so than performances on individual tests comprising the factors. Only the motor planning/speed and sensory-perceptual processing factors predicted time to diagnosis, after controlling for CAP scores and motor symptoms. Conclusions The results suggest that motor planning/speed and sensory-perceptual processing are important markers of disease prognosis. The findings also have implications for using composite indices of cognition in preventive Huntington's disease trials where they may be more sensitive than individual tests.

Current nonclinical testing paradigm enables safe entry to First-In-Human clinical trials: The IQ consortium nonclinical to clinical translational database.

PubMed

Monticello, Thomas M; Jones, Thomas W; Dambach, Donna M; Potter, David M; Bolt, Michael W; Liu, Maggie; Keller, Douglas A; Hart, Timothy K; Kadambi, Vivek J

2017-11-01

The contribution of animal testing in drug development has been widely debated and challenged. An industry-wide nonclinical to clinical translational database was created to determine how safety assessments in animal models translate to First-In-Human clinical risk. The blinded database was composed of 182 molecules and contained animal toxicology data coupled with clinical observations from phase I human studies. Animal and clinical data were categorized by organ system and correlations determined. The 2×2 contingency table (true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative) was used for statistical analysis. Sensitivity was 48% with a 43% positive predictive value (PPV). The nonhuman primate had the strongest performance in predicting adverse effects, especially for gastrointestinal and nervous system categories. When the same target organ was identified in both the rodent and nonrodent, the PPV increased. Specificity was 84% with an 86% negative predictive value (NPV). The beagle dog had the strongest performance in predicting an absence of clinical adverse effects. If no target organ toxicity was observed in either test species, the NPV increased. While nonclinical studies can demonstrate great value in the PPV for certain species and organ categories, the NPV was the stronger predictive performance measure across test species and target organs indicating that an absence of toxicity in animal studies strongly predicts a similar outcome in the clinic. These results support the current regulatory paradigm of animal testing in supporting safe entry to clinical trials and provide context for emerging alternate models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of different balance tests in the prediction of falls in older women with vertebral fractures: a cohort study.

PubMed

Morris, Rob; Harwood, Rowan H; Baker, Ros; Sahota, Opinder; Armstrong, Sarah; Masud, Tahir

2007-01-01

people with vertebral fractures are at high risk of developing hip fractures. Falls risk is important in the pathogenesis of hip fractures. to investigate if balance tests, in conjunction with a falls history, can predict falls in older women with vertebral fractures. a cohort study of community-dwelling women aged over 60 years, with vertebral fractures. Balance tests investigated were: 5 m-timed-up-and-go-test (5 m-TUG), timed 10 m walk, TURN180 test (number of steps to turn 180 degrees ), tandem walk, ability to stand from chair with arms folded. Leg extensor power was also measured. fallers (at least one fall in a 12 month follow-up period) versus non-fallers. one hundred and four women aged 63-91 years [mean=78 +/- 7], were recruited. Eighty-six (83%) completed the study. Four variables were significantly associated with fallers: previous recurrent faller (2+ falls) [OR=6.52; 95% CI=1.69-25.22], 5 m-TUG test [OR=1.03; 1.00-1.06], timed 10 m walk [OR=1.07; 1.01-1.13] and the TURN180 test [OR=1.22; 1.00-1.49] [P <0.05]. Multi-variable analysis showed that only two variables, previous recurrent faller [OR=5.60; 1.40-22.45] and the 5 m-TUG test [OR=1.04; 1.00-1.08], were independently significantly associated with fallers. The optimal cut-off time for performing the 5 m-TUG test in predicting fallers was 30 s (area under ROC=60%). Combining previous recurrent faller with the 5 m-TUG improved prediction of fallers [OR=16.79, specificity=100%, sensitivity=13%]. a previous history of recurrent falls and the inability to perform the 5 m-TUG test within 30 s predicted falls in older women with vertebral fractures. Combining these two measures can predict fallers with a high degree of specificity (although a low sensitivity), allowing the identification of a group of patients suitable for fall and fracture prevention measures.

Predicting ground level impacts of solid rocket motor testing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Douglas, Willard L.; Eagan, Ellen E.; Kennedy, Carolyn D.; Mccaleb, Rebecca C.

1993-01-01

Beginning in August of 1988 and continuing until the present, NASA at Stennis Space Center, Mississippi has conducted environmental monitoring of selected static test firings of the solid rocket motor used on the Space Shuttle. The purpose of the study was to assess the modeling protocol adapted for use in predicting plume behavior for the Advanced Solid Rocket Motor that is to be tested in Mississippi beginning in the mid-1990's. Both motors use an aluminum/ammonium perchlorate fuel that produces HCl and Al2O3 particulates as the major combustion products of concern. A combination of COMBUS.sr and PRISE.sr subroutines and the INPUFF model are used to predict the centerline stabilization height, the maximum concentration of HCl and Al2O3 at ground level, and distance to maximum concentration. Ground studies were conducted to evaluate the ability of the model to make these predictions. The modeling protocol was found to be conservative in the prediction of plume stabilization height and in the concentrations of the two emission products predicted.

Comparison of the Reynell Developmental Language Scale II and the Galker test of word-recognition-in-noise in Danish day-care children.

PubMed

Lous, Jørgen; Glenn Lauritsen, Maj-Britt

2018-06-01

To search for predictive factors for language development measured by two receptive language tests for children, the Galker test (a word-recognition-in-noise test) testing hearing and vocabulary, and the Danish version of Reynell Developmental Language Scale (2nd revision, RDLS II) test, a language comprehension test. The study analysed if information about background variables and parents and pre-school teachers was predictive for test scores; if earlier middle ear disease, actual hearing loss and tympanometry was important for language development; and if the two receptive tests differed in terms of the degree to which variables were able to predict test scores at the age of three to five years. All children aged three and five years attending 20 day-care centres for children without cognitive development issues from the Municipality of Hillerød, Denmark, were invited to participate. We used questionnaires to the parents and day-care teachers and examined the children using tympanometry, hearing test and the two receptive language tests. We performed unadjusted and adjusted analyses of raw and grouped scores and background variables, as well as stepwise regression analysis with group scores as outcome. The results of the two tests were surprisingly similar in relation to background variables. The same variables were predictive for scores in the two receptive language tests. The predictive variables were: age group (22-31%), having no sibling (2-3%), being a boy (1%), information from the parents about the child's vocabulary (3%), phonology (0-2%). information from the pre-school teachers on the child's vocabulary (4-6%), and hearing beyond 25 dB in best ear (mean of four frequencies) (1%). We found that nearly the same variables were predictive for the test score and the grouped score in pre-school children in the RDLS II and the Galker test. Information from the pre-school teachers was more predictive of the test score than information from the parents. In the adjusted analysis, beside age group, information about the child's vocabulary was the most predictive information explaining 4-6% of the variation. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sensitivity to Spatiotemporal Percepts Predicts the Perception of Emotion

PubMed Central

Castro, Vanessa L.; Boone, R. Thomas

2015-01-01

The present studies examined how sensitivity to spatiotemporal percepts such as rhythm, angularity, configuration, and force predicts accuracy in perceiving emotion. In Study 1, participants (N = 99) completed a nonverbal test battery consisting of three nonverbal emotion perception tests and two perceptual sensitivity tasks assessing rhythm sensitivity and angularity sensitivity. Study 2 (N = 101) extended the findings of Study 1 with the addition of a fourth nonverbal test, a third configural sensitivity task, and a fourth force sensitivity task. Regression analyses across both studies revealed partial support for the association between perceptual sensitivity to spatiotemporal percepts and greater emotion perception accuracy. Results indicate that accuracy in perceiving emotions may be predicted by sensitivity to specific percepts embedded within channel- and emotion-specific displays. The significance of such research lies in the understanding of how individuals acquire emotion perception skill and the processes by which distinct features of percepts are related to the perception of emotion. PMID:26339111

CUSUM-Logistic Regression analysis for the rapid detection of errors in clinical laboratory test results.

PubMed

Sampson, Maureen L; Gounden, Verena; van Deventer, Hendrik E; Remaley, Alan T

2016-02-01

The main drawback of the periodic analysis of quality control (QC) material is that test performance is not monitored in time periods between QC analyses, potentially leading to the reporting of faulty test results. The objective of this study was to develop a patient based QC procedure for the more timely detection of test errors. Results from a Chem-14 panel measured on the Beckman LX20 analyzer were used to develop the model. Each test result was predicted from the other 13 members of the panel by multiple regression, which resulted in correlation coefficients between the predicted and measured result of >0.7 for 8 of the 14 tests. A logistic regression model, which utilized the measured test result, the predicted test result, the day of the week and time of day, was then developed for predicting test errors. The output of the logistic regression was tallied by a daily CUSUM approach and used to predict test errors, with a fixed specificity of 90%. The mean average run length (ARL) before error detection by CUSUM-Logistic Regression (CSLR) was 20 with a mean sensitivity of 97%, which was considerably shorter than the mean ARL of 53 (sensitivity 87.5%) for a simple prediction model that only used the measured result for error detection. A CUSUM-Logistic Regression analysis of patient laboratory data can be an effective approach for the rapid and sensitive detection of clinical laboratory errors. Published by Elsevier Inc.

The predictive value of the sacral base pressure test in detecting specific types of sacroiliac dysfunction

PubMed Central

Mitchell, Travis D.; Urli, Kristina E.; Breitenbach, Jacques; Yelverton, Chris

2007-01-01

Abstract Objective This study aimed to evaluate the validity of the sacral base pressure test in diagnosing sacroiliac joint dysfunction. It also determined the predictive powers of the test in determining which type of sacroiliac joint dysfunction was present. Methods This was a double-blind experimental study with 62 participants. The results from the sacral base pressure test were compared against a cluster of previously validated tests of sacroiliac joint dysfunction to determine its validity and predictive powers. The external rotation of the feet, occurring during the sacral base pressure test, was measured using a digital inclinometer. Results There was no statistically significant difference in the results of the sacral base pressure test between the types of sacroiliac joint dysfunction. In terms of the results of validity, the sacral base pressure test was useful in identifying positive values of sacroiliac joint dysfunction. It was fairly helpful in correctly diagnosing patients with negative test results; however, it had only a “slight” agreement with the diagnosis for κ interpretation. Conclusions In this study, the sacral base pressure test was not a valid test for determining the presence of sacroiliac joint dysfunction or the type of dysfunction present. Further research comparing the agreement of the sacral base pressure test or other sacroiliac joint dysfunction tests with a criterion standard of diagnosis is necessary. PMID:19674694

Doing the counter-regulation shuffle: The importance of flexibility and hunger for predicting food consumption following a preload.

PubMed

Broadbent, Jaclyn; Fuller-Tyszkiewicz, Matthew; Dennerstein, Michelle; Greenwood, Jesse; Hancock, Naomi; Thavapalan, Nithyyaa; White, Melissa

This study utilised the preload paradigm to evaluate whether trait-like dieting attitudes and behaviours (dietary restraint and flexibility in dieting rules) and context-specific factors (negative mood and hunger) predict food consumption among male and female participants. Following a high calorie preload, 79 participants aged 18-40 completed a deceptive taste test in which they were encouraged to eat as much of the taste test foods as desired, and this ad libitum intake was measured. Although each predictor (except negative mood) predicted consumption when tested individually, regression analyses revealed that dieting flexibility and current hunger were the strongest unique predictors of intake. Mood failed to directly predict food consumption, nor did it moderate the relationship between restraint and food intake. Collectively, findings suggest that emphasis on dietary restraint in preload studies may be misplaced, as other proximal and stable factors may better predict food consumption. Crown Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Clinical and electrophysiologic attributes as predictors of results of autonomic function tests

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wu, C. L.; Denq, J. C.; Harper, C. M.; O'Brien, P. C.; Low, P. A.

1998-01-01

Autonomic dysfunction is a feature of some neuropathies and not others. It has been suggested that some clinical and electrophysiologic attributes are predictable of autonomic impairment detected using laboratory testing; however, dear guidelines are unavailable. We evaluated 138 relatively unselected patients with peripheral neuropathy who underwent neurologic evaluation, electromyography (EMG), nerve conduction studies, and autonomic function tests to determine which variables were predictive of laboratory findings of autonomic failure. The variables evaluated were 1) clinical somatic neuropathic findings, 2) clinical autonomic symptoms, and 3) electrophysiologic findings. Autonomic symptoms were strongly predictive (Rs = 0.40, p < 0.001) of autonomic failure. Among the non-autonomic indices, absent ankle reflexes were mildly predictive (Rs = 0.19, p = 0.022) of autonomic impairment, but all others were not (duration, clinical pattern, severity, weakness, sensory loss). Electrophysiologic changes of an axonal neuropathy predicted autonomic impairment while demyelinating neuropathy did not. We conclude that autonomic studies will most likely be abnormal in patients who have symptoms of autonomic involvement and those who have an axonal neuropathy.

State-of-the-art of high-speed propeller noise prediction - A multidisciplinary approach and comparison with measured data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Dunn, Mark H.; Farassat, F.

1990-01-01

The results of NASA's Propeller Test Assessment program involving extensive flight tests of a large-scale advanced propeller are presented. This has provided the opportunity to evaluate the current capability of advanced propeller noise prediction utilizing principally the exterior acoustic measurements for the prediction of exterior noise. The principal object of this study was to evaluate the state-of-the-art of noise prediction for advanced propellers utilizing the best available codes of the disciplines involved. The effects of blade deformation on the aerodynamics and noise of advanced propellers were also studied. It is concluded that blade deformation can appreciably influence propeller noise and aerodynamics, and that, in general, centrifugal and blade forces must both be included in the calculation of blade forces. It is noted that the present capability for free-field noise prediction of the first three harmonics for advanced propellers is fairly good. Detailed data and diagrams of the test results are presented.

Predicting preference-based SF-6D index scores from the SF-8 health survey.

PubMed

Wang, P; Fu, A Z; Wee, H L; Lee, J; Tai, E S; Thumboo, J; Luo, N

2013-09-01

To develop and test functions for predicting the preference-based SF-6D index scores from the SF-8 health survey. This study was a secondary analysis of data collected in a population health survey in which respondents (n = 7,529) completed both the SF-36 and the SF-8 questionnaires. We examined seven ordinary least-square estimators for their performance in predicting SF-6D scores from the SF-8 at both the individual and the group levels. In general, all functions performed similarly well in predicting SF-6D scores, and the predictions at the group level were better than predictions at the individual level. At the individual level, 42.5-51.5% of prediction errors were smaller than the minimally important difference (MID) of the SF-6D scores, depending on the function specifications, while almost all prediction errors of the tested functions were smaller than the MID of SF-6D at the group level. At both individual and group levels, the tested functions predicted lower than actual scores at the higher end of the SF-6D scale. Our study developed functions to generate preference-based SF-6D index scores from the SF-8 health survey, the first of its kind. Further research is needed to evaluate the performance and validity of the prediction functions.

Predictive effects of teachers and schools on test scores, college attendance, and earnings

PubMed Central

Chamberlain, Gary E.

2013-01-01

I studied predictive effects of teachers and schools on test scores in fourth through eighth grade and outcomes later in life such as college attendance and earnings. For example, predict the fraction of a classroom attending college at age 20 given the test score for a different classroom in the same school with the same teacher and given the test score for a classroom in the same school with a different teacher. I would like to have predictive effects that condition on averages over many classrooms, with and without the same teacher. I set up a factor model that, under certain assumptions, makes this feasible. Administrative school district data in combination with tax data were used to calculate estimates and do inference. PMID:24101492

Using the Criterion-Predictor Factor Model to Compute the Probability of Detecting Prediction Bias with Ordinary Least Squares Regression

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Culpepper, Steven Andrew

2012-01-01

The study of prediction bias is important and the last five decades include research studies that examined whether test scores differentially predict academic or employment performance. Previous studies used ordinary least squares (OLS) to assess whether groups differ in intercepts and slopes. This study shows that OLS yields inaccurate inferences…

Determining predictability and accuracy of thermal and electrical dental pulp tests: An in vivo study.

PubMed

Salgar, Avinash Ramchandra; Singh, Shishir H; Podar, Rajesh S; Kulkarni, Gaurav P; Babel, Shashank N

2017-01-01

Pulp sensitivity testing, even with its limitations and shortcomings, has been and still remains a very helpful aid in endodontic diagnosis. Pulp sensitivity tests extrapolate pulpal health from the sensory response. The aim of the present study was to identify the sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values (NPVs) of thermal and electrical tests of pulp sensitivity. Pulp tests studied were two cold and heat tests respectively and electrical test. A total of 330 teeth were tested: 198 teeth with vital pulp and 132 teeth with necrotic pulps (disease prevalence of 40%). The ideal standard was established by observing bleeding within the pulp chamber. Sensitivity values of the diagnostic tests were 0.89 and 0.94 for cold test, 0.84 and 0.87 for the heat tests, and 0.75 for electrical pulp test and the specificity values of the diagnostic tests were 0.91 and 0.93 for the cold tests, 0.86 and 0.84 for the heat tests, and 0.90 for electrical pulp test. The NPVs were 0.91 and 0.96 for the cold tests, 0.89 and 0.91 for the heat tests, and 0.84 for electrical pulp test. The positive predictive values were 0.89 and 0.90 for the cold tests, 0.80 and 0.79 for the heat tests and 0.88 for electrical pulp test. The highest accuracy (0.9393) was observed with cold test (icy spray). The cold test done with icy spray was the most accurate method for sensitivity testing.

A novel method to predict the dry eye symptoms in new contact lens wearers.

PubMed

Pult, Heiko; Murphy, Paul J; Purslow, Christine

2009-09-01

Lid wiper epitheliopathy (LWE) and lid parallel conjunctival folds (LIPCOF) give moderate prediction levels for dryness symptoms in experienced contact lens (CL) wearers. This study investigated whether a combination of LWE and LIPCOF plus other tear film tests and subjective evaluation before contact lens fitting was better able to predict CL-induced dry eye (CLIDE) symptoms. Tear meniscus height, non-invasive break-up time (NIBUT), ocular hyperaemia, LIPCOF, phenol red thread test, corneal and conjunctival staining, and LWE of the right eye of 33 new soft CL wearers (12 males, 21 females, median age = 30.5 years; range = 19 to 44) were assessed in a prospective 2-mo longitudinal study. Symptoms were evaluated by the Ocular Surface Disease Index (OSDI) and subjects were grouped according to their response in the Contact Lens Dry Eye Questionnaire (CLDEQ) during the study (20 symptomatic and 13 asymptomatic). The subjects were fitted with vifilcon A and senofilcon A lenses for a 2-week period, consecutively. Limbal hyperaemia (repeated measures analysis of variance; p < 0.05) and LWE (Friedman; p < 0.004) increased significantly during the study but not LIPCOF (p > or = 0.318; temporal, nasal, and Sum), bulbar hyperaemia (p = 0.432), staining (p > or = 0.060), OSDI (p = 0.126), or CLDEQ (p = 0.317, kappa = 0.279). Limbal hyperaemia significantly decreased in senofilcon A lenses. Wearing comfort among symptomatics was significantly better with senofilcon A (p = 0.005). At the enrolment visit, the subjects who became symptomatic exhibited significantly decreased NIBUT and increased LIPCOF and OSDI (range, p < 0.027). The best test combination to predict CLIDE (logistic regression analyses) was LIPCOF Sum plus NIBUT and OSDI, (positive predictive value = 87% and accuracy = 91%). LIPCOF, NIBUT, and OSDI are significant discriminators for CLIDE in new CL wearers compared with hyperaemia, tear meniscus height, phenol red thread test, staining, and LWE. The best test combination is NIBUT plus LIPCOF Sum and OSDI (named the Contact-Lens-Predicting-Test).

Diagnostic Value of Electrocardiogram in Predicting Exaggerated Blood Pressure Response to Exercise Stress Testing.

PubMed

Eshraghi, Ali; Ebdali, Reyhaneh Takalloo; Sajjadi, Seyed Sajed; Golnezhad, Reza

2016-08-01

It is believed that an exaggerated blood pressure response (EBPR) to exercise stress test is associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular events. It is also assumed that QT dispersion (QT-d), which was originally proposed to measure the spatial dispersion of ventricular recovery times, may have a relationship to cardiovascular events. The objective of this study was to examine the difference of changes in QT-d, Maxi-QT, Mini-QT, and QT-c (corrected QT interval) of the electrocardiogram in two groups of patients with exaggerated blood pressure responses (EBPR group) and normal responses (control group) to exercise testing. Also, the diagnostic value of each of these criteria in the prediction of EBPR was studied. This cross-sectional study was conducted from May 2015 to February 2016 on patients suspected of coronary artery disease (CAD) undergoing exercise testing who had been referred to Ghaem and Imam Reza hospitals in Mashhad (Iran). All patients underwent a treadmill exercise test with the 12-lead ECG, which was optically scanned and digitized for analysis of QT-d, QT max, and QT min. Patients were divided into two groups of normal and EBPR to exercise testing. QT changes of ECG were compared between the two groups, and the diagnostic accuracy of QT variables for prediction of EBPR to exercise testing was studied. A multiple linear regression analysis (MLR), Pearson Chi-qquare, independent samples t-test, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used as statistical methods in IBM SPSS version 19. Sixty patients (55% male) with a mean age of 50.48 ± 10.89 years were studied in two groups of normal (n=30) and exaggerated blood pressure response (n=30) to exercise testing. Maximum QT and QT dispersion were statistically different in individuals' exaggerated blood pressure response to exercise stress test (p < 0.05). The logistic regression analysis revealed that none of our parameters predicted the EBPR. The ROC curve showed that 50 and 345 milliseconds for QT dispersion and Maxi-QT were the optimal cut-off points for the prediction of EBPR. It seems that Maxi-QT and QT-d may be predictors of EBPR during exercise testing. Also, a significant difference in maxi-QT and QT-d was observed between two groups of patients with normal and EBPR during the exercise testing.

The Use of Linear Programming for Prediction.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Schnittjer, Carl J.

The purpose of the study was to develop a linear programming model to be used for prediction, test the accuracy of the predictions, and compare the accuracy with that produced by curvilinear multiple regression analysis. (Author)

In-silico wear prediction for knee replacements--methodology and corroboration.

PubMed

Strickland, M A; Taylor, M

2009-07-22

The capability to predict in-vivo wear of knee replacements is a valuable pre-clinical analysis tool for implant designers. Traditionally, time-consuming experimental tests provided the principal means of investigating wear. Today, computational models offer an alternative. However, the validity of these models has not been demonstrated across a range of designs and test conditions, and several different formulas are in contention for estimating wear rates, limiting confidence in the predictive power of these in-silico models. This study collates and retrospectively simulates a wide range of experimental wear tests using fast rigid-body computational models with extant wear prediction algorithms, to assess the performance of current in-silico wear prediction tools. The number of tests corroborated gives a broader, more general assessment of the performance of these wear-prediction tools, and provides better estimates of the wear 'constants' used in computational models. High-speed rigid-body modelling allows a range of alternative algorithms to be evaluated. Whilst most cross-shear (CS)-based models perform comparably, the 'A/A+B' wear model appears to offer the best predictive power amongst existing wear algorithms. However, the range and variability of experimental data leaves considerable uncertainty in the results. More experimental data with reduced variability and more detailed reporting of studies will be necessary to corroborate these models with greater confidence. With simulation times reduced to only a few minutes, these models are ideally suited to large-volume 'design of experiment' or probabilistic studies (which are essential if pre-clinical assessment tools are to begin addressing the degree of variation observed clinically and in explanted components).

Generating linear regression model to predict motor functions by use of laser range finder during TUG.

PubMed

Adachi, Daiki; Nishiguchi, Shu; Fukutani, Naoto; Hotta, Takayuki; Tashiro, Yuto; Morino, Saori; Shirooka, Hidehiko; Nozaki, Yuma; Hirata, Hinako; Yamaguchi, Moe; Yorozu, Ayanori; Takahashi, Masaki; Aoyama, Tomoki

2017-05-01

The purpose of this study was to investigate which spatial and temporal parameters of the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test are associated with motor function in elderly individuals. This study included 99 community-dwelling women aged 72.9 ± 6.3 years. Step length, step width, single support time, variability of the aforementioned parameters, gait velocity, cadence, reaction time from starting signal to first step, and minimum distance between the foot and a marker placed to 3 in front of the chair were measured using our analysis system. The 10-m walk test, five times sit-to-stand (FTSTS) test, and one-leg standing (OLS) test were used to assess motor function. Stepwise multivariate linear regression analysis was used to determine which TUG test parameters were associated with each motor function test. Finally, we calculated a predictive model for each motor function test using each regression coefficient. In stepwise linear regression analysis, step length and cadence were significantly associated with the 10-m walk test, FTSTS and OLS test. Reaction time was associated with the FTSTS test, and step width was associated with the OLS test. Each predictive model showed a strong correlation with the 10-m walk test and OLS test (P < 0.01), which was not significant higher correlation than TUG test time. We showed which TUG test parameters were associated with each motor function test. Moreover, the TUG test time regarded as the lower extremity function and mobility has strong predictive ability in each motor function test. Copyright © 2017 The Japanese Orthopaedic Association. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Testing the predictive power of the transtheoretical model of behavior change applied to dietary fat intake

PubMed Central

Wright, Julie A.; Velicer, Wayne F.; Prochaska, James O.

2009-01-01

This study evaluated how well predictions from the transtheoretical model (TTM) generalized from smoking to diet. Longitudinal data were used from a randomized control trial on reducing dietary fat consumption in adults (n =1207) recruited from primary care practices. Predictive power was evaluated by making a priori predictions of the magnitude of change expected in the TTM constructs of temptation, pros and cons, and 10 processes of change when an individual transitions between the stages of change. Generalizability was evaluated by testing predictions based on smoking data. Three sets of predictions were made for each stage: Precontemplation (PC), Contemplation (C) and Preparation (PR) based on stage transition categories of no progress, progress and regression determined by stage at baseline versus stage at the 12-month follow-up. Univariate analysis of variance between stage transition groups was used to calculate the effect size [omega squared (ω2)]. For diet predictions based on diet data, there was a high degree of confirmation: 92%, 95% and 92% for PC, C and PR, respectively. For diet predictions based on smoking data, 77%, 79% and 85% were confirmed, respectively, suggesting a moderate degree of generalizability. This study revised effect size estimates for future theory testing on the TTM applied to dietary fat. PMID:18400785

The Predictive Validity of Using Admissions Testing and Multiple Mini-Interviews in Undergraduate University Admissions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Makransky, Guido; Havmose, Philip; Vang, Maria Louison; Andersen, Tonny Elmose; Nielsen, Tine

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of a two-step admissions procedure that included a cognitive ability test followed by multiple mini-interviews (MMIs) used to assess non-cognitive skills, compared to grade-based admissions relative to subsequent drop-out rates and academic achievement after one and two years of study.…

Early Literacy and Early Numeracy: The Value of Including Early Literacy Skills in the Prediction of Numeracy Development

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Purpura, David J.; Hume, Laura E.; Sims, Darcey M.; Lonigan, Cristopher J.

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to examine whether early literacy skills uniquely predict early numeracy skills development. During the first year of the study, 69 3- to 5-year-old preschoolers were assessed on the Preschool Early Numeracy Skills (PENS) test and the Test of Preschool Early Literacy Skills (TOPEL). Participants were assessed again a…

The development of a probabilistic approach to forecast coastal change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lentz, Erika E.; Hapke, Cheryl J.; Rosati, Julie D.; Wang, Ping; Roberts, Tiffany M.

2011-01-01

This study demonstrates the applicability of a Bayesian probabilistic model as an effective tool in predicting post-storm beach changes along sandy coastlines. Volume change and net shoreline movement are modeled for two study sites at Fire Island, New York in response to two extratropical storms in 2007 and 2009. Both study areas include modified areas adjacent to unmodified areas in morphologically different segments of coast. Predicted outcomes are evaluated against observed changes to test model accuracy and uncertainty along 163 cross-shore transects. Results show strong agreement in the cross validation of predictions vs. observations, with 70-82% accuracies reported. Although no consistent spatial pattern in inaccurate predictions could be determined, the highest prediction uncertainties appeared in locations that had been recently replenished. Further testing and model refinement are needed; however, these initial results show that Bayesian networks have the potential to serve as important decision-support tools in forecasting coastal change.

Determination of the diagnostic value of the Modified Mallampati Score, Upper Lip Bite Test and Facial Angle in predicting difficult intubation: A prospective descriptive study.

PubMed

Mahmoodpoor, Ata; Soleimanpour, Hassan; Golzari, Samad Ej; Nejabatian, Arezoo; Pourlak, Tannaz; Amani, Masoumeh; Hajmohammadi, Saeed; Hosseinzadeh, Hamzeh; Esfanjani, Robab Mehdizadeh

2017-02-01

Difficult intubation is a significant cause of mortality and morbidity related to anesthesia. We decided to evaluate the value of Modified Mallampati Score, Upper Lip Bite Test and Facial Angle in the prediction of difficult intubation. In a prospective descriptive study, data from 132 patients who were candidates for elective maxillofacial surgeries under general anesthesia were gathered. Facial Angles were measured by a maxillofacial surgeon according to cephalometry. The Modified Mallampati Score and Upper Lip Bite Test were first measured by an anesthesiologist and then another anesthesiologist was assigned to record the Cormack and Lehane score during the intubation. Grades 3 and 4 were considered as difficult intubation. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and Youden index were calculated for all tests. Difficult intubation was reported in 12% of the patients. Facial Angle≤82.5° can predict difficult intubation with 87.5% sensitivity and 88.8% specificity. Among the three tests, a high Modified Mallampati Score had the highest specificity (94.5%) and a high Modified Mallampati Score and Facial Angle (FA≤82.5°) had the highest sensitivity (87.5%). The highest NPV, sensitivity and Youden index were observed when using Facial Angle with the Modified Mallampati Score or with Upper Lip Bite Test. Facial Angle has a high sensitivity, NPV and Youden index for the prediction of difficult intubation, but the best result is achieved when Facial Angle is used in combination with either the Modified Mallampati Score or Upper Lip Bit Test. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CON4EI: CONsortium for in vitro Eye Irritation testing strategy - EpiOcular™ time-to-toxicity (EpiOcular ET-50) protocols for hazard identification and labelling of eye irritating chemicals.

PubMed

Kandarova, Helena; Letasiova, Silvia; Adriaens, Els; Guest, Robert; Willoughby, Jamin A; Drzewiecka, Agnieszka; Gruszka, Katarzyna; Alépée, Nathalie; Verstraelen, Sandra; Van Rompay, An R

2018-06-01

Assessment of acute eye irritation potential is part of the international regulatory requirements for testing of chemicals. The objective of the CON4EI (CONsortium for in vitro Eye Irritation testing strategy) project was to develop tiered testing strategies for eye irritation assessment for all drivers of classification. A set of 80 reference chemicals (38 liquids and 42 solids) was tested with eight different alternative methods. Here, the results obtained with reconstructed human cornea-like epithelium (RhCE) EpiOcular™ in the EpiOcular time-to-toxicity Tests (Neat and Dilution ET-50 protocols) are presented. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate whether test methods can discriminate chemicals not requiring classification for serious eye damage/eye irritancy (No Category) from chemicals requiring classification and labelling for Category 1 and Category 2. In addition, the predictive capacity in terms of in vivo drivers of classification was investigated. The chemicals were tested in two independent runs by MatTek In Vitro Life Science Laboratories. Results of this study demonstrate very high specificity of both test protocols. With the existing prediction models described in the SOPs, the specificity of the Neat and Dilution method was 87% and 100%, respectively. The Dilution method was able to correctly predicting 66% of GHS Cat 2 chemicals, however, prediction of GHS Cat 1 chemicals was only 47%-55% using the current protocols. In order to achieve optimal prediction for all three classes, a testing strategy was developed which combines the most predictive time-points of both protocols and for tests liquids and solids separately. Using this new testing strategy, the sensitivity for predicting GHS Cat 1 and GHS Cat 2 chemicals was 73% and 64%, respectively and the very high specificity of 97% was maintained. None of the Cat 1 chemicals was underpredicted as GHS No Category. Further combination of the EpiOcular time-to-toxicity protocols with other validated in vitro systems evaluated in this project, should enable significant reduction and even possible replacement of the animal tests for the final assessment of the irritation potential in all of the GHS classes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive validity of the UKCAT for medical school undergraduate performance: a national prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Tiffin, Paul A; Mwandigha, Lazaro M; Paton, Lewis W; Hesselgreaves, H; McLachlan, John C; Finn, Gabrielle M; Kasim, Adetayo S

2016-09-26

The UK Clinical Aptitude Test (UKCAT) has been shown to have a modest but statistically significant ability to predict aspects of academic performance throughout medical school. Previously, this ability has been shown to be incremental to conventional measures of educational performance for the first year of medical school. This study evaluates whether this predictive ability extends throughout the whole of undergraduate medical study and explores the potential impact of using the test as a selection screening tool. This was an observational prospective study, linking UKCAT scores, prior educational attainment and sociodemographic variables with subsequent academic outcomes during the 5 years of UK medical undergraduate training. The participants were 6812 entrants to UK medical schools in 2007-8 using the UKCAT. The main outcome was academic performance at each year of medical school. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was also conducted, treating the UKCAT as a screening test for a negative academic outcome (failing at least 1 year at first attempt). All four of the UKCAT scale scores significantly predicted performance in theory- and skills-based exams. After adjustment for prior educational achievement, the UKCAT scale scores remained significantly predictive for most years. Findings from the ROC analysis suggested that, if used as a sole screening test, with the mean applicant UKCAT score as the cut-off, the test could be used to reject candidates at high risk of failing at least 1 year at first attempt. However, the 'number needed to reject' value would be high (at 1.18), with roughly one candidate who would have been likely to pass all years at first sitting being rejected for every higher risk candidate potentially declined entry on this basis. The UKCAT scores demonstrate a statistically significant but modest degree of incremental predictive validity throughout undergraduate training. Whilst the UKCAT could be considered a fairly crude screening tool for future academic performance, it may offer added value when used in conjunction with other selection measures. Future work should focus on the optimum role of such tests within the selection process and the prediction of post-graduate performance.

Measuring Sperm DNA Fragmentation and Clinical Outcomes of Medically Assisted Reproduction: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Cissen, Maartje; Wely, Madelon van; Scholten, Irma; Mansell, Steven; Bruin, Jan Peter de; Mol, Ben Willem; Braat, Didi; Repping, Sjoerd; Hamer, Geert

2016-01-01

Sperm DNA fragmentation has been associated with reduced fertilization rates, embryo quality, pregnancy rates and increased miscarriage rates. Various methods exist to test sperm DNA fragmentation such as the sperm chromatin structure assay (SCSA), the sperm chromatin dispersion (SCD) test, the terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase mediated deoxyuridine triphosphate nick end labelling (TUNEL) assay and the single cell gel electrophoresis (Comet) assay. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the value of measuring sperm DNA fragmentation in predicting chance of ongoing pregnancy with IVF or ICSI. Out of 658 unique studies, 30 had extractable data and were thus included in the meta-analysis. Overall, the sperm DNA fragmentation tests had a reasonable to good sensitivity. A wide variety of other factors may also affect the IVF/ICSI outcome, reflected by limited to very low specificity. The constructed hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic (HSROC) curve indicated a fair discriminatory capacity of the TUNEL assay (area under the curve (AUC) of 0.71; 95% CI 0.66 to 0.74) and Comet assay (AUC of 0.73; 95% CI 0.19 to 0.97). The SCSA and the SCD test had poor predictive capacity. Importantly, for the TUNEL assay, SCD test and Comet assay, meta-regression showed no differences in predictive value between IVF and ICSI. For the SCSA meta-regression indicated the predictive values for IVF and ICSI were different. The present review suggests that current sperm DNA fragmentation tests have limited capacity to predict the chance of pregnancy in the context of MAR. Furthermore, sperm DNA fragmentation tests have little or no difference in predictive value between IVF and ICSI. At this moment, there is insufficient evidence to recommend the routine use of sperm DNA fragmentation tests in couples undergoing MAR both for the prediction of pregnancy and for the choice of treatment. Given the significant limitations of the evidence and the methodological weakness and design of the included studies, we do urge for further research on the predictive value of sperm DNA fragmentation for the chance of pregnancy after MAR, also in comparison with other predictors of pregnancy after MAR.

Comprehensive analysis of sperm DNA fragmentation by five different assays: TUNEL assay, SCSA, SCD test and alkaline and neutral Comet assay.

PubMed

Ribas-Maynou, J; García-Peiró, A; Fernández-Encinas, A; Abad, C; Amengual, M J; Prada, E; Navarro, J; Benet, J

2013-09-01

Sperm DNA fragmentation (SDF) is becoming an important test to assess male infertility. Several different tests are available, but no consensus has yet been reached as to which tests are most predictive of infertility. Few publications have reported a comprehensive analysis comparing these methods within the same population. The objective of this study was to analyze the differences between the five most common methodologies, to study their correlations and to establish their cut-off values, sensitivity and specificity in predicting male infertility. We found differences in SDF between fertile donors and infertile patients in TUNEL, SCSA, SCD and alkaline Comet assays, but none with the neutral Comet assay. The alkaline COMET assay was the best in predicting male infertility followed by TUNEL, SCD and SCSA, whereas the neutral COMET assay had no predictive power. For our patient population, threshold values for infertility were 20.05% for TUNEL assay, 18.90% for SCSA, 22.75% for the SCD test, 45.37% for alkaline Comet and 34.37% for neutral Comet. This work establishes in a comprehensive study that the all techniques except neutral Comet are useful to distinguish fertile and infertile men. © 2013 American Society of Andrology and European Academy of Andrology.

Testing an integrated behavioural and biomedical model of disability in N-of-1 studies with chronic pain.

PubMed

Quinn, Francis; Johnston, Marie; Johnston, Derek W

2013-01-01

Previous research has supported an integrated biomedical and behavioural model explaining activity limitations. However, further tests of this model are required at the within-person level, because while it proposes that the constructs are related within individuals, it has primarily been tested between individuals in large group studies. We aimed to test the integrated model at the within-person level. Six correlational N-of-1 studies in participants with arthritis, chronic pain and walking limitations were carried out. Daily measures of theoretical constructs were collected using a hand-held computer (PDA), the activity was assessed by self-report and accelerometer and the data were analysed using time-series analysis. The biomedical model was not supported as pain impairment did not predict activity, so the integrated model was supported partially. Impairment predicted intention to move around, while perceived behavioural control (PBC) and intention predicted activity. PBC did not predict activity limitation in the expected direction. The integrated model of disability was partially supported within individuals, especially the behavioural elements. However, results suggest that different elements of the model may drive activity (limitations) for different individuals. The integrated model provides a useful framework for understanding disability and suggests interventions, and the utility of N-of-1 methodology for testing theory is illustrated.

Predicting Reading and Interpreting I. Q. Differences

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Miller, Wallace D.

1973-01-01

The purposes of this study were to determine which of the tests, PPVT, SIT, or Lorge-Thorndike (LT), may be the most useful to the classroom teacher in predicting reading achievement, for use in reading expectancy formulas, and for analyzing I.Q. scores obtained on different tests. (Author/RK)

Effect of moisture content and dry unit weight on the resilient modulus of subgrade soils predicted by cone penetration test.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2002-06-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the effect of moisture content and dry unit weight on the resilient characteristics of subgrade soil predicted by the cone penetration test. An experimental program was conducted in which cone penetratio...

Development of an improved capability for predicting the response of highway bridges : final report.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1986-01-01

This study compared experimental and analytical stress and deflection response of a simply-supported highway bridge as measured from a field test and as predicted from a finite-element analysis. The field test was conducted on one span of a six-span ...

The Predictive Validity of Projective Measures.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Suinn, Richard M.; Oskamp, Stuart

Written for use by clinical practitioners as well as psychological researchers, this book surveys recent literature (1950-1965) on projective test validity by reviewing and critically evaluating studies which shed light on what may reliably be predicted from projective test results. Two major instruments are covered: the Rorschach and the Thematic…

BRCA1/2 Test Results Impact Risk Management Attitudes, Intentions and Uptake

PubMed Central

O’Neill, Suzanne C.; Valdimarsdottir, Heiddis B.; DeMarco, Tiffani A.; Peshkin, Beth N.; Graves, Kristi D.; Brown, Karen; Hurley, Karen E.; Isaacs, Claudine; Hecker, Sharon; Schwartz, Marc D.

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND Women who receive positive or uninformative BRCA1/2 test results face a number of decisions about how to manage their cancer risk. The purpose of this study was to prospectively examine the effect of receiving a positive vs. uninformative BRCA1/2 genetic test result on the perceived pros and cons of risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) and risk-reducing oophorectomy (RRO) and breast cancer screening. We further examined how perceived pros and cons of surgery predict intention for and uptake of surgery. METHODS 308 women (146 positive, 162 uninformative) were included in RRM and breast cancer screening analyses. 276 women were included in RRO analyses. Participants completed questionnaires at pre-disclosure baseline and 1-, 6-and 12-months post-disclosure. We used linear multiple regression to assess whether test result contributed to change in pros and cons and logistic regression to predict intentions and surgery uptake. RESULTS Receipt of a positive BRCA1/2 test result predicted stronger pros for RRM and RRO (Ps < .001), but not perceived cons of RRM and RRO. Pros of surgery predicted RRM and RRO intentions in carriers and RRO intentions in uninformatives. Cons predicted RRM intentions in carriers. Pros and cons predicted carriers’ RRO uptake in the year after testing (Ps < .001). CONCLUSIONS Receipt of BRCA1/2 mutation test results impacts how carriers see the positive aspects of RRO and RRM and their surgical intentions. Both the positive and negative aspects predict uptake of surgery. PMID:20383578

International Standards on stability of digital prints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Adelstein, Peter Z.

2010-06-01

The International Standards Organization (ISO) is a worldwide recognized standardizing body which has responsibility for standards on permanence of digital prints. This paper is an update on the progress made to date by ISO in writing test methods in this area. Three technologies are involved, namely ink jet, dye diffusion thermal transfer (dye-sublimation) and electrophotography. Two types of test methods are possible, namely comparative tests and predictive tests. To date a comparative test on water fastness has been published and final balloting is underway on a comparative test on humidity fastness. Predictive tests are being finalized on thermal stability and pollution susceptibility. The test method on thermal stability is intended to predict the print life during normal aging. One of the testing concerns is that some prints do not show significant image change in practical testing times. The test method on pollution susceptibility only deals with ozone and assumes that the reciprocity law applies. This law assumes that a long time under a low pollutant concentration is equivalent to a short time under the high concentration used in the test procedure. Longer term studies include a predictive test for light stability and the preparation of a material specification. The latter requires a decision about the proper colour target to be used and what constitutes an unacceptable colour change. Moreover, a specification which gives a predictive life is very dependent upon the conditions the print encounters and will only apply to specific levels of temperature, ozone and light.

Predicting juvenile recidivism: new method, old problems.

PubMed

Benda, B B

1987-01-01

This prediction study compared three statistical procedures for accuracy using two assessment methods. The criterion is return to a juvenile prison after the first release, and the models tested are logit analysis, predictive attribute analysis, and a Burgess procedure. No significant differences are found between statistics in prediction.

Human papillomavirus DNA testing as an adjunct to cytology in cervical screening programs.

PubMed

Lörincz, Attila T; Richart, Ralph M

2003-08-01

Our objective was to review current large studies of human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA testing as an adjunct to the Papanicolaou test for cervical cancer screening programs. We analyzed 10 large screening studies that used the Hybrid Capture 2 test and 3 studies that used the polymerase chain reaction test in a manner that enabled reliable estimates of accuracy for detecting or predicting high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN). Most studies allowed comparison of HPV DNA and Papanicolaou testing and estimates of the performance of Papanicolaou and HPV DNA as combined tests. The studies were selected on the basis of a sufficient number of cases of high-grade CIN and cancer to provide meaningful statistical values. Investigators had to demonstrate the ability to generate reasonably reliable Hybrid Capture 2 or polymerase chain reaction data that were either minimally biased by nature of study design or that permitted analytical techniques for addressing issues of study bias to be applied. Studies had to provide data for the calculation of test sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, odds ratios, relative risks, confidence intervals, and other relevant measures. Final data were abstracted directly from published articles or estimated from descriptive statistics presented in the articles. In some studies, new analyses were performed from raw data supplied by the principal investigators. We concluded that HPV DNA testing was a more sensitive indicator for prevalent high-grade CIN than either conventional or liquid cytology. A combination of HPV DNA and Papanicolaou testing had almost 100% sensitivity and negative predictive value. The specificity of the combined tests was slightly lower than the specificity of the Papanicolaou test alone, but this decrease could potentially be offset by greater protection from neoplastic progression and cost savings available from extended screening intervals. One "double-negative" HPV DNA and Papanicolaou test indicated better prognostic assurance against risk of future CIN 3 than 3 subsequent negative conventional Papanicolaou tests and may safely allow 3-year screening intervals for such low-risk women.

Distress among women receiving uninformative BRCA1/2 results: 12-month outcomes.

PubMed

O'Neill, Suzanne C; Rini, Christine; Goldsmith, Rachel E; Valdimarsdottir, Heiddis; Cohen, Lawrence H; Schwartz, Marc D

2009-10-01

Few data are available regarding the long-term psychological impact of uninformative BRCA1/2 test results. This study examines change in distress from pretesting to 12-months post-disclosure, with medical, family history, and psychological variables, such as pretesting perceived risk of carrying a deleterious mutation prior to testing and primary and secondary appraisals, as predictors. Two hundred and nine women with uninformative BRCA1/2 test results completed questionnaires at pretesting and 1-, 6-, and 12-month post-disclosure, including measures of anxiety and depression, cancer-specific and genetic testing distress. We used a mixed models approach to predict change in post-disclosure distress. Distress declined from pretesting to 1-month post-disclosure, but remained stable thereafter. Primary appraisals predicted all types of distress at 1-month post-disclosure. Primary and secondary appraisals predicted genetic testing distress at 1-month as well as change over time. Receiving a variant of uncertain clinical significance and entering testing with a high expectation for carrying a deleterious mutation predicted genetic testing distress that persisted through the year after testing. As a whole, women receiving uninformative BRCA1/2 test results are a resilient group. For some women, distress experienced in the month after testing does not dissipate. Variables, such as heightened pretesting perceived risk and cognitive appraisals, predict greater likelihood for sustained distress in this group and could be amenable to intervention.

Pretest variables that improve the predictive value of exercise testing in women.

PubMed

Lamont, L S; Bobb, J; Blissmer, B; Desai, V

2015-12-01

Graded exercise testing (GXT) is used in coronary artery disease (CAD) prevention and rehabilitation programs. In women, this test has a decreased accuracy and predictive value but there are few studies that examine the predictors of a verified positive test. The aim of this study was to determine those pretest variables that might enhance the predictive value of the GXT in women clients. Medical records of 1761 patients referred for GXT's over a 5 yr period of time were screened. Demographic, medical, and exercise test variables were analyzed. The GXT's of 403 women were available for inclusion and they were stratified into 3 groups: positive responders that were subsequently shown to have CAD (N.=28 verified positive [VP]), positive responders that were not shown to have CAD (N.=84 non-verified positive [NVP]) and negative GXT responders (N.=291). Both univariate and a multivariate step-wise regression statistics were performed on this data. Pretest variables that differentiated between VP and NVP groups are: (an older age=65.8 vs. 60.2 yrs. P<0.05; a greater BMI=30.8 vs. 28.8 kg/m2; diabetes status or an elevated fasting glucose =107.4 vs. 95.2 mg/dL P<0.05; and the use of some cardiovascular medications. Our subsequent linear regression analysis emphasized that HDL cholesterol and beta blocker usage were the most predictive of a positive exercise test in this cohort. The American Heart Association recommends GXT's in women with an intermediate pretest probability of CAD. But there are only two clinical variables available prior to testing to make this probability decision: age and quality of chest pain. This study outlined that other pre-exercise test variables such as: BMI, blood chemistry (glucose and lipoprotein levels) and the use of cardiovascular medications are useful in clinical decision making. These pre-exercise test variables improved the predictive value of the GXT's in our sample.

A modified fall risk assessment tool that is specific to physical function predicts falls in community-dwelling elderly people.

PubMed

Hirase, Tatsuya; Inokuchi, Shigeru; Matsusaka, Nobuou; Nakahara, Kazumi; Okita, Minoru

2014-01-01

Developing a practical fall risk assessment tool to predict the occurrence of falls in the primary care setting is important because investigators have reported deterioration of physical function associated with falls. Researchers have used many performance tests to predict the occurrence of falls. These performance tests predict falls and also assess physical function and determine exercise interventions. However, the need for such specialists as physical therapists to accurately conduct these tests limits their use in the primary care setting. Questionnaires for fall prediction offer an easy way to identify high-risk fallers without requiring specialists. Using an existing fall assessment questionnaire, this study aimed to identify items specific to physical function and determine whether those items were able to predict falls and estimate physical function of high-risk fallers. The analysis consisted of both retrospective and prospective studies and used 2 different samples (retrospective, n = 1871; prospective, n = 292). The retrospective study and 3-month prospective study comprised community-dwelling individuals aged 65 years or older and older adults using community day centers. The number of falls, risk factors for falls (15 risk factors on the questionnaire), and physical function determined by chair standing test (CST) and Timed Up and Go Test (TUGT) were assessed. The retrospective study selected fall risk factors related to physical function. The prospective study investigated whether the number of selected risk factors could predict falls. The predictive power was determined using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Seven of the 15 risk factors were related to physical function. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the sum of the selected risk factors of previous falls plus the other risk factors was 0.82 (P = .00). The best cutoff point was 4 risk factors, with sensitivity and specificity of 84% and 68%, respectively. The mean values for the CST and TUGT at the best cutoff point were 12.9 and 12.5 seconds, respectively. In the retrospective study, the values for the CST and TUGT corresponding to the best cutoff point from the prospective study were 13.2 and 11.4 seconds, respectively. This study confirms that a screening tool comprising 7 fall risk factors can be used to predict falls. The values for the CST and TUGT corresponding to the best cutoff point for the selected 7 risk factors determined in our prospective study were similar to the cutoff points for the CST and TUGT in previous studies for fall prediction. We propose that the sum of the selected risk factors of previous falls plus the other risk factors may be identified as the estimated value for physical function. These findings may contribute to earlier identification of high-risk fallers and intervention for fall prevention.

Being smart or getting smarter: Implicit theory of intelligence moderates stereotype threat and stereotype lift effects.

PubMed

Froehlich, Laura; Martiny, Sarah E; Deaux, Kay; Goetz, Thomas; Mok, Sog Yee

2016-09-01

This research explores implicit theory of intelligence (TOI) as a moderator of stereotype activation effects on test performance for members of negatively stereotyped and of favourably stereotyped groups. In Germany, Turkish-origin migrants are stereotyped as low in verbal ability. We predicted that on a test diagnostic of verbal intelligence, endorsement of an entity TOI predicts stereotype threat effects for Turkish-origin students and stereotype lift effects for German students. This effect could account for some of the performance gap between immigrants and host society members after stereotype activation. Study 1 (N = 107) established structural equivalence of implicit theories across the ethnic groups. In two experimental studies (Study 2: N = 182, Study 3: N = 190), we tested the moderating effect of TOI in a 2 (stereotype activation: diagnostic vs. non-diagnostic test) × 2 (ethnicity: German vs. Turkish migration background) experimental design. The results showed that when the test was described as diagnostic of verbal intelligence, higher entity theory endorsement predicted stereotype threat effects for Turkish-origin students (Study 2 and Study 3) and stereotype lift effects for German students (Study 3). The results are discussed in terms of practical implications for educational settings and theoretical implications for processes underlying stereotype activation effects. © 2016 The British Psychological Society.

Study Habits and Eysenck's Theory of Extraversion-Introversion.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Campbell, John B.; Hawley, Charles W.

1982-01-01

Tested predictions derived from Eysenck's theory of personality in two samples by relating extraversion scores to library study locations, frequency of study breaks, and self-report of factors which influence study location. Found predicted main effects for study location with extraverts occupying locations that provided greater external…

Receiver operating characteristic analysis of prediction for gastric cancer development using serum pepsinogen and Helicobacter pylori antibody tests.

PubMed

Hamashima, Chisato; Sasazuki, Shizuka; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2017-03-09

Chronic Helicobacter pylori infection plays a central role in the development of gastric cancer as shown by biological and epidemiological studies. The H. pylori antibody and serum pepsinogen (PG) tests have been anticipated to predict gastric cancer development. We determined the predictive sensitivity and specificity of gastric cancer development using these tests. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed, and areas under the curve were estimated. The predictive sensitivity and specificity of gastric cancer development were compared among single tests and combined methods using serum pepsinogen and H. pylori antibody tests. From a large-scale population-based cohort of over 100,000 subjects followed between 1990 and 2004, 497 gastric cancer subjects and 497 matched healthy controls were chosen. The predictive sensitivity and specificity were low in all single tests and combination methods. The highest predictive sensitivity and specificity were obtained for the serum PG I/II ratio. The optimal PG I/II cut-off values were 2.5 and 3.0. At a PG I/II cut-off value of 3.0, the sensitivity was 86.9% and the specificity was 39.8%. Even if three biomarkers were combined, the sensitivity was 97.2% and the specificity was 21.1% when the cut-off values were 3.0 for PG I/II, 70 ng/mL for PG I, and 10.0 U/mL for H. pylori antibody. The predictive accuracy of gastric cancer development was low with the serum pepsinogen and H. pylori antibody tests even if these tests were combined. To adopt these biomarkers for gastric cancer screening, a high specificity is required. When these tests are adopted for gastric cancer screening, they should be carefully interpreted with a clear understanding of their limitations.

LCR testing for gonorrhoea and chlamydia in population surveys and other screenings of low prevalence populations: coping with decreased positive predictive value.

PubMed

Zenilman, J M; Miller, W C; Gaydos, C; Rogers, S M; Turner, C F

2003-04-01

Nucleic acid amplification tests have facilitated field based STD studies and increased screening activities. However, even with highly specific tests, the positive predictive value (PPV) of such tests may be lower than desirable in low prevalence populations. We estimated PPVs for a single LCR test in a population survey in which positive specimens were retested. The Baltimore STD and Behavior Survey (BSBS) was a population based behavioural survey of adults which included collecting urine specimens to assess the prevalence of gonorrhoea and chlamydial infection. Gonorrhoea and chlamydial infection were diagnosed by ligase chain reaction (LCR). Nearly all positive results were retested by LCR. Because of cost considerations, negative results were not confirmed. Predicted curves for the PPV were calculated for a single testing assuming an LCR test sensitivity of 95%, and test specificities in the range 95.0%-99.9%, for disease prevalences between 1% and 10%. Positive specimens were retested to derive empirical estimates of the PPV of a positive result on a single LCR test. 579 participants age 18-35 provided urine specimens. 20 (3.5%) subjects initially tested positive for chlamydial infection, and 39 (6.7%) tested positive for gonococcal infection. If positive results on the repeat LCR are taken as confirmation of a "true" infection, the observed PPV for the first LCR testing was 89.5% for chlamydial infection and 83.3% for gonorrhoea. This is within the range of theoretical PPVs calculated from the assumed sensitivities and specificities of the LCR assays. Empirical performance of a single LCR testing approximated the theoretically predicted PPV in this field study. This result demonstrates the need to take account of the lower PPVs obtained when such tests are used in field studies or clinical screening of low prevalence populations. Repeat testing of specimens, preferably with a different assay (for example, polymerase chain reaction), and disclosure of the non-trivial potential for false positive test results would seem appropriate in all such studies.

Numerical Modeling of Propellant Boiloff in Cryogenic Storage Tank

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Majumdar, A. K.; Steadman, T. E.; Maroney, J. L.

2007-01-01

This Technical Memorandum (TM) describes the thermal modeling effort undertaken at Marshall Space Flight Center to support the Cryogenic Test Laboratory at Kennedy Space Center (KSC) for a study of insulation materials for cryogenic tanks in order to reduce propellant boiloff during long-term storage. The Generalized Fluid System Simulation program has been used to model boiloff in 1,000-L demonstration tanks built for testing the thermal performance of glass bubbles and perlite insulation. Numerical predictions of boiloff rate and ullage temperature have been compared with the measured data from the testing of demonstration tanks. A satisfactory comparison between measured and predicted data has been observed for both liquid nitrogen and hydrogen tests. Based on the experience gained with the modeling of the demonstration tanks, a numerical model of the liquid hydrogen storage tank at launch complex 39 at KSC was built. The predicted boiloff rate of hydrogen has been found to be in good agreement with observed field data. This TM describes three different models that have been developed during this period of study (March 2005 to June 2006), comparisons with test data, and results of parametric studies.

Predicting reading and mathematics from neural activity for feedback learning.

PubMed

Peters, Sabine; Van der Meulen, Mara; Zanolie, Kiki; Crone, Eveline A

2017-01-01

Although many studies use feedback learning paradigms to study the process of learning in laboratory settings, little is known about their relevance for real-world learning settings such as school. In a large developmental sample (N = 228, 8-25 years), we investigated whether performance and neural activity during a feedback learning task predicted reading and mathematics performance 2 years later. The results indicated that feedback learning performance predicted both reading and mathematics performance. Activity during feedback learning in left superior dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC) predicted reading performance, whereas activity in presupplementary motor area/anterior cingulate cortex (pre-SMA/ACC) predicted mathematical performance. Moreover, left superior DLPFC and pre-SMA/ACC activity predicted unique variance in reading and mathematics ability over behavioral testing of feedback learning performance alone. These results provide valuable insights into the relationship between laboratory-based learning tasks and learning in school settings, and the value of neural assessments for prediction of school performance over behavioral testing alone. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Time-to-positivity, type of culture media and oxidase test performed on positive blood culture vials to predict Pseudomonas aeruginosa in patients with Gram-negative bacilli bacteraemia.

PubMed

Cobos-Triguero, N; Zboromyrska, Y; Morata, L; Alejo, I; De La Calle, C; Vergara, A; Cardozo, C; Arcas, M P; Soriano, A; Marco, F; Mensa, J; Almela, M; Martínez, J A

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to determine the usefulness of oxidase test and time-to-positivity (TTP) in aerobic and anaerobic blood culture vials to detect the presence of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in patients with Gram-negative bacilli (GNB) bacteraemia. TTP was recorded for each aerobic and anaerobic blood culture vial of monomicrobial bacteraemia due to GNB. Oxidase test was performed in a pellet of the centrifuged content of the positive blood culture. An algorithm was developed in order to perform the oxidase test efficiently taking into account TTP and type of vial. A total of 341 episodes of GNB bacteraemia were analysed. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the oxidase test performed on positive vials with GNB to predict P. aeruginosa were 95%, 99%, 91%, and 99%, respectively. When growth was first or exclusively detected in anaerobic vials, P. aeruginosa was never identified hence the performance of the oxidase test could be avoided. When growth was only or first detected in aerobic vials, a TTP≥8h predicted P. aeruginosa in 37% or cases (63 of 169), therefore oxidase test is highly recommended. Oxidase test performed onto positive blood culture vials previously selected by TTP and type of vials is an easy and inexpensive way to predict P. aeruginosa. In most cases, this can lead to optimization of treatment in less than 24 hours.

Clinical history and biologic age predicted falls better than objective functional tests.

PubMed

Gerdhem, Paul; Ringsberg, Karin A M; Akesson, Kristina; Obrant, Karl J

2005-03-01

Fall risk assessment is important because the consequences, such as a fracture, may be devastating. The objective of this study was to find the test or tests that best predicted falls in a population-based sample of elderly women. The fall-predictive ability of a questionnaire, a subjective estimate of biologic age and objective functional tests (gait, balance [Romberg and sway test], thigh muscle strength, and visual acuity) were compared in 984 randomly selected women, all 75 years of age. A recalled fall was the most important predictor for future falls. Only recalled falls and intake of psycho-active drugs independently predicted future falls. Women with at least five of the most important fall predictors (previous falls, conditions affecting the balance, tendency to fall, intake of psychoactive medication, inability to stand on one leg, high biologic age) had an odds ratio of 11.27 (95% confidence interval 4.61-27.60) for a fall (sensitivity 70%, specificity 79%). The more time-consuming objective functional tests were of limited importance for fall prediction. A simple clinical history, the inability to stand on one leg, and a subjective estimate of biologic age were more important as part of the fall risk assessment.

Comparative Validity of the Descriptive Tests of Mathematical Skills (DTMS) and SAT-Mathematics (SAT-M) for Predicting Performance in Freshman College Mathematics Courses: Prefatory Report

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McLoughlin, M. Padraig M. M.; Bluford, Dontrell A.

2004-01-01

This study investigated the predictive validity of the Descriptive Tests of Mathematical Skills (DTMS) and the SAT-Mathematics (SAT-M) tests as placement tools for entering students in a small, liberal arts, historically black institution (HBI) using regression analysis. The placement schema is four-tiered: for a remedial algebra course, college…

Flight assessment in patients with respiratory disease: hypoxic challenge testing vs. predictive equations.

PubMed

Martin, S E; Bradley, J M; Buick, J B; Bradbury, I; Elborn, J S

2007-06-01

Predictive equations have been proposed as a simpler alternative to hypoxic challenge testing (HCT) for determining the risk of in-flight hypoxia. To assess agreement between hypoxic challenge testing (HCT) and predictive equations for assessment of in-flight hypoxia. Retrospective study. Patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (n = 15), interstitial lung disease (ILD) (n = 15) and cystic fibrosis (CF) (n = 15) were studied. Spirometry was recorded prior to hypoxic inhalation and oxygen saturations (SpO2) were recorded before, after and during hypoxic inhalation. Blood gases were analysed before and after hypoxic inhalation and when SpO2 = 85%. An HCT was performed using the Ventimask method. The PaO2 at altitude was estimated for each group using four published predictive equations, which use values of PaO2 (ground) and lung function measurements to predict altitude PaO2. Results were interpreted using the BTS recommendations for prescription of in-flight oxygen post HCT. The Stuart Maxwell test of overall homogeneity was used to assess agreement between HCT results and each of the predictive equations. Ground PaO2 was significantly greater in patients with CF than either ILD or COPD (p < 0.05). PaO2 in all three groups significantly decreased following HCT. With the exception of equation 3, significantly fewer patients in each group would require in-flight O2 if prescription was based on HCT, compared to predictive equations (p < 0.05). Predictive equations considerably overestimate the need for in-flight O2, compared to HCT.

Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts. 2. Case study for a Mediterranean catchment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parkin, G.; O'Donnell, G.; Ewen, J.; Bathurst, J. C.; O'Connell, P. E.; Lavabre, J.

1996-02-01

Validation methods commonly used to test catchment models are not capable of demonstrating a model's fitness for making predictions for catchments where the catchment response is not known (including hypothetical catchments, and future conditions of existing catchments which are subject to land-use or climate change). This paper describes the first use of a new method of validation (Ewen and Parkin, 1996. J. Hydrol., 175: 583-594) designed to address these types of application; the method involves making 'blind' predictions of selected hydrological responses which are considered important for a particular application. SHETRAN (a physically based, distributed catchment modelling system) is tested on a small Mediterranean catchment. The test involves quantification of the uncertainty in four predicted features of the catchment response (continuous hydrograph, peak discharge rates, monthly runoff, and total runoff), and comparison of observations with the predicted ranges for these features. The results of this test are considered encouraging.

Can quantitative sensory testing predict responses to analgesic treatment?

PubMed

Grosen, K; Fischer, I W D; Olesen, A E; Drewes, A M

2013-10-01

The role of quantitative sensory testing (QST) in prediction of analgesic effect in humans is scarcely investigated. This updated review assesses the effectiveness in predicting analgesic effects in healthy volunteers, surgical patients and patients with chronic pain. A systematic review of English written, peer-reviewed articles was conducted using PubMed and Embase (1980-2013). Additional studies were identified by chain searching. Search terms included 'quantitative sensory testing', 'sensory testing' and 'analgesics'. Studies on the relationship between QST and response to analgesic treatment in human adults were included. Appraisal of the methodological quality of the included studies was based on evaluative criteria for prognostic studies. Fourteen studies (including 720 individuals) met the inclusion criteria. Significant correlations were observed between responses to analgesics and several QST parameters including (1) heat pain threshold in experimental human pain, (2) electrical and heat pain thresholds, pressure pain tolerance and suprathreshold heat pain in surgical patients, and (3) electrical and heat pain threshold and conditioned pain modulation in patients with chronic pain. Heterogeneity among studies was observed especially with regard to application of QST and type and use of analgesics. Although promising, the current evidence is not sufficiently robust to recommend the use of any specific QST parameter in predicting analgesic response. Future studies should focus on a range of different experimental pain modalities rather than a single static pain stimulation paradigm. © 2013 European Federation of International Association for the Study of Pain Chapters.

Numerical analyses of a rocket engine turbine and comparison with air test data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tran, Ken; Chan, Daniel C.; Hudson, Susan T.; Gaddis, Stephen W.

1992-01-01

The study presents cold air test data on the Space Shuttle Main Engine High Pressure Fuel Turbopump turbine recently collected at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. Overall performance data, static pressures on the first- and second-stage nozzles, and static pressures along with the gas path at the hub and tip are gathered and compared with various (1D, quasi-3D, and 3D viscous) analysis procedures. The results of each level of analysis are compared to test data to demonstrate the range of applicability for each step in the design process of a turbine. One-dimensional performance prediction, quasi-3D loading prediction, 3D wall pressure distribution prediction, and 3D viscous wall pressure distribution prediction are illustrated.

Predicting Performance during Clinical Years from the New Medical College Admission Test.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Caroline, Jan D.; And Others

1983-01-01

The results of a predictive validity study of the new Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) using criteria from the clinical years of undergraduate medical education are discussed. The criteria included course grades and faculty ratings of clerks in internal medicine, surgery, obstetrics and gynecology, pediatrics, and psychiatry. (Author/MLW)

Bitterness prediction of H1-antihistamines and prediction of masking effects of artificial sweeteners using an electronic tongue.

PubMed

Ito, Masanori; Ikehama, Kiyoharu; Yoshida, Koichi; Haraguchi, Tamami; Yoshida, Miyako; Wada, Koichi; Uchida, Takahiro

2013-01-30

The study objective was to quantitatively predict a drug's bitterness and estimate bitterness masking efficiency using an electronic tongue (e-Tongue). To verify the predicted bitterness by e-Tongue, actual bitterness scores were determined by human sensory testing. In the first study, bitterness intensities of eight H(1)-antihistamines were assessed by comparing the Euclidean distances between the drug and water. The distances seemed not to represent the drug's bitterness, but to be greatly affected by acidic taste. Two sensors were ultimately selected as best suited to bitterness evaluation, and the data obtained from the two sensors depicted the actual taste map of the eight drugs. A bitterness prediction model was established with actual bitterness scores from human sensory testing. Concerning basic bitter substances, such as H(1)-antihistamines, the predictability of bitterness intensity using e-Tongue was considered to be sufficiently promising. In another study, the bitterness masking efficiency when adding an artificial sweetener was estimated using e-Tongue. Epinastine hydrochloride aqueous solutions containing different levels of acesulfame potassium and aspartame were well discriminated by e-Tongue. The bitterness masking efficiency of epinastine hydrochloride with acesulfame potassium was successfully predicted using e-Tongue by several prediction models employed in the study. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

How to test validity in orthodontic research: a mixed dentition analysis example.

PubMed

Donatelli, Richard E; Lee, Shin-Jae

2015-02-01

The data used to test the validity of a prediction method should be different from the data used to generate the prediction model. In this study, we explored whether an independent data set is mandatory for testing the validity of a new prediction method and how validity can be tested without independent new data. Several validation methods were compared in an example using the data from a mixed dentition analysis with a regression model. The validation errors of real mixed dentition analysis data and simulation data were analyzed for increasingly large data sets. The validation results of both the real and the simulation studies demonstrated that the leave-1-out cross-validation method had the smallest errors. The largest errors occurred in the traditional simple validation method. The differences between the validation methods diminished as the sample size increased. The leave-1-out cross-validation method seems to be an optimal validation method for improving the prediction accuracy in a data set with limited sample sizes. Copyright © 2015 American Association of Orthodontists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Determination of the criterion-related validity of hip joint angle test for estimating hamstring flexibility using a contemporary statistical approach.

PubMed

Sainz de Baranda, Pilar; Rodríguez-Iniesta, María; Ayala, Francisco; Santonja, Fernando; Cejudo, Antonio

2014-07-01

To examine the criterion-related validity of the horizontal hip joint angle (H-HJA) test and vertical hip joint angle (V-HJA) test for estimating hamstring flexibility measured through the passive straight-leg raise (PSLR) test using contemporary statistical measures. Validity study. Controlled laboratory environment. One hundred thirty-eight professional trampoline gymnasts (61 women and 77 men). Hamstring flexibility. Each participant performed 2 trials of H-HJA, V-HJA, and PSLR tests in a randomized order. The criterion-related validity of H-HJA and V-HJA tests was measured through the estimation equation, typical error of the estimate (TEEST), validity correlation (β), and their respective confidence limits. The findings from this study suggest that although H-HJA and V-HJA tests showed moderate to high validity scores for estimating hamstring flexibility (standardized TEEST = 0.63; β = 0.80), the TEEST statistic reported for both tests was not narrow enough for clinical purposes (H-HJA = 10.3 degrees; V-HJA = 9.5 degrees). Subsequently, the predicted likely thresholds for the true values that were generated were too wide (H-HJA = predicted value ± 13.2 degrees; V-HJA = predicted value ± 12.2 degrees). The results suggest that although the HJA test showed moderate to high validity scores for estimating hamstring flexibility, the prediction intervals between the HJA and PSLR tests are not strong enough to suggest that clinicians and sport medicine practitioners should use the HJA and PSLR tests interchangeably as gold standard measurement tools to evaluate and detect short hamstring muscle flexibility.

TESTING BALANCE AND FALL RISK IN PERSONS WITH PARKINSON DISEASE, AN ARGUMENT FOR ECOLOGICALLY VALID TESTING

PubMed Central

Foreman, K. Bo; Addison, Odessa; Kim, Han S.; Dibble, Leland E.

2010-01-01

Introduction Despite clear deficits in postural control, most clinical examination tools lack accuracy in identifying persons with Parkinson disease (PD) who have fallen or are at risk for falls. We assert that this is in part due to the lack of ecological validity of the testing. Methods To test this assertion, we examined the responsiveness and predictive validity of the Functional Gait Assessment (FGA), the Pull test, and the Timed up and Go (TUG) during clinically defined ON and OFF medication states. To address responsiveness, ON/OFF medication performance was compared. To address predictive validity, areas under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were compared. Comparisons were made using separate non-parametric tests. Results Thirty-six persons (24 male, 12 female) with PD (22 fallers, 14 non-fallers) participated. Only the FGA was able to detect differences between fallers and non-fallers for both ON/OFF medication testing. The predictive validity of the FGA and the TUG for fall identification was higher during OFF medication compared to ON medication testing. The predictive validity of the FGA was higher than the TUG and the Pull test during ON and OFF medication testing. Discussion In order to most accurately identify fallers, clinicians should test persons with PD in ecologically relevant conditions and tasks. In this study, interpretation of the OFF medication performance and use of the FGA provided more accurate prediction of those who would fall. PMID:21215674

Testing the Predictive Validity and Construct of Pathological Video Game Use

PubMed Central

Groves, Christopher L.; Gentile, Douglas; Tapscott, Ryan L.; Lynch, Paul J.

2015-01-01

Three studies assessed the construct of pathological video game use and tested its predictive validity. Replicating previous research, Study 1 produced evidence of convergent validity in 8th and 9th graders (N = 607) classified as pathological gamers. Study 2 replicated and extended the findings of Study 1 with college undergraduates (N = 504). Predictive validity was established in Study 3 by measuring cue reactivity to video games in college undergraduates (N = 254), such that pathological gamers were more emotionally reactive to and provided higher subjective appraisals of video games than non-pathological gamers and non-gamers. The three studies converged to show that pathological video game use seems similar to other addictions in its patterns of correlations with other constructs. Conceptual and definitional aspects of Internet Gaming Disorder are discussed. PMID:26694472

Addressing criticisms of existing predictive bias research: cognitive ability test scores still overpredict African Americans' job performance.

PubMed

Berry, Christopher M; Zhao, Peng

2015-01-01

Predictive bias studies have generally suggested that cognitive ability test scores overpredict job performance of African Americans, meaning these tests are not predictively biased against African Americans. However, at least 2 issues call into question existing over-/underprediction evidence: (a) a bias identified by Aguinis, Culpepper, and Pierce (2010) in the intercept test typically used to assess over-/underprediction and (b) a focus on the level of observed validity instead of operational validity. The present study developed and utilized a method of assessing over-/underprediction that draws on the math of subgroup regression intercept differences, does not rely on the biased intercept test, allows for analysis at the level of operational validity, and can use meta-analytic estimates as input values. Therefore, existing meta-analytic estimates of key parameters, corrected for relevant statistical artifacts, were used to determine whether African American job performance remains overpredicted at the level of operational validity. African American job performance was typically overpredicted by cognitive ability tests across levels of job complexity and across conditions wherein African American and White regression slopes did and did not differ. Because the present study does not rely on the biased intercept test and because appropriate statistical artifact corrections were carried out, the present study's results are not affected by the 2 issues mentioned above. The present study represents strong evidence that cognitive ability tests generally overpredict job performance of African Americans. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Prediction of Lateral Ankle Sprains in Football Players Based on Clinical Tests and Body Mass Index.

PubMed

Gribble, Phillip A; Terada, Masafumi; Beard, Megan Q; Kosik, Kyle B; Lepley, Adam S; McCann, Ryan S; Pietrosimone, Brian G; Thomas, Abbey C

2016-02-01

The lateral ankle sprain (LAS) is the most common injury suffered in sports, especially in football. While suggested in some studies, a predictive role of clinical tests for LAS has not been established. To determine which clinical tests, focused on potentially modifiable factors of movement patterns and body mass index (BMI), could best demonstrate risk of LAS among high school and collegiate football players. Case-control study; Level of evidence, 3. A total of 539 high school and collegiate football players were evaluated during the preseason with the Star Excursion Balance Test (SEBT) and Functional Movement Screen as well as BMI. Results were compared between players who did and did not suffer an LAS during the season. Logistic regression analyses and calculated odds ratios were used to determine which measures predicted risk of LAS. The LAS group performed worse on the SEBT-anterior reaching direction (SEBT-ANT) and had higher BMI as compared with the noninjured group (P < .001). The strongest prediction models corresponded with the SEBT-ANT. Low performance on the SEBT-ANT predicted a risk of LAS in football players. BMI was also significantly higher in football players who sustained an LAS. Identifying clinical tools for successful LAS injury risk prediction will be a critical step toward the creation of effective prevention programs to reduce risk of sustaining an LAS during participation in football. © 2015 The Author(s).

Fatigue life prediction of rotor blade composites: Validation of constant amplitude formulations with variable amplitude experiments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Westphal, T.; Nijssen, R. P. L.

2014-12-01

The effect of Constant Life Diagram (CLD) formulation on the fatigue life prediction under variable amplitude (VA) loading was investigated based on variable amplitude tests using three different load spectra representative for wind turbine loading. Next to the Wisper and WisperX spectra, the recently developed NewWisper2 spectrum was used. Based on these variable amplitude fatigue results the prediction accuracy of 4 CLD formulations is investigated. In the study a piecewise linear CLD based on the S-N curves for 9 load ratios compares favourably in terms of prediction accuracy and conservativeness. For the specific laminate used in this study Boerstra's Multislope model provides a good alternative at reduced test effort.

Does Spontaneous Favorability to Power (vs. Universalism) Values Predict Spontaneous Prejudice and Discrimination?

PubMed

Souchon, Nicolas; Maio, Gregory R; Hanel, Paul H P; Bardin, Brigitte

2017-10-01

We conducted five studies testing whether an implicit measure of favorability toward power over universalism values predicts spontaneous prejudice and discrimination. Studies 1 (N = 192) and 2 (N = 86) examined correlations between spontaneous favorability toward power (vs. universalism) values, achievement (vs. benevolence) values, and a spontaneous measure of prejudice toward ethnic minorities. Study 3 (N = 159) tested whether conditioning participants to associate power values with positive adjectives and universalism values with negative adjectives (or inversely) affects spontaneous prejudice. Study 4 (N = 95) tested whether decision bias toward female handball players could be predicted by spontaneous attitude toward power (vs. universalism) values. Study 5 (N = 123) examined correlations between spontaneous attitude toward power (vs. universalism) values, spontaneous importance toward power (vs. universalism) values, and spontaneous prejudice toward Black African people. Spontaneous positivity toward power (vs. universalism) values was associated with spontaneous negativity toward minorities and predicted gender bias in a decision task, whereas the explicit measures did not. These results indicate that the implicit assessment of evaluative responses attached to human values helps to model value-attitude-behavior relations. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Personality Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ability of the D-15 panel tests and HRR pseudoisochromatic plates to predict performance in naming VDT colors.

PubMed

Ramaswamy, Shankaran; Hovis, Jeffery K

2004-01-01

Color codes in VDT displays often contain sets of colors that are confusing to individuals with color-vision deficiencies. The purpose of this study is to determine whether individuals with color-vision deficiencies (color defectives) can perform as well as individuals without color-vision deficiencies (color normals) on a colored VDT display used in the railway industry and to determine whether clinical color-vision tests can predict their performance. Of the 52 color defectives, 58% failed the VDT test. The kappa coefficients of agreement for the Farnsworth D-15, Adams desaturated D-15, and Richmond 3rd Edition HRR PIC diagnostic plates were significantly greater than chance. In particular, the D-15 tests have a high probability of predicting who fails the practical test. However, all three tests had an unacceptably high false-negative rate (9.5-35%); so that a practical test is still needed.

Predicting one repetition maximum equations accuracy in paralympic rowers with motor disabilities.

PubMed

Schwingel, Paulo A; Porto, Yuri C; Dias, Marcelo C M; Moreira, Mônica M; Zoppi, Cláudio C

2009-05-01

Predicting one repetition maximum equations accuracy in paralympic rowers Resistance training intensity is prescribed using percentiles of the maximum strength, defined as the maximum tension generated for a muscle or muscular group. This value is found through the application of the one maximal repetition (1RM) test. One maximal repetition test demands time and still is not appropriate for some populations because of the risk it offers. In recent years, the prediction of maximal strength, through predicting equations, has been used to prevent the inconveniences of the 1RM test. The purpose of this study was to verify the accuracy of 12 1RM predicting equations for disabled rowers. Nine male paralympic rowers (7 one-leg amputated rowers and 2 cerebral paralyzed rowers; age, 30 +/- 7.9 years; height, 175.1 +/- 5.9 cm; weight, 69 +/- 13.6 kg) performed 1RM test for lying T-bar row and flat barbell bench press exercises to determine upper-body strength and leg press exercise to determine lower-body strength. One maximal repetition test was performed, and based on submaximal repetitions loads, several linear and exponential equations models were tested with regard of their accuracy. We did not find statistical differences for lying T-bar row and bench press exercises between measured and predicted 1RM values (p = 0.84 and 0.23 for lying T-bar row and flat barbell bench press, respectively); however, leg press exercise reached a high significant difference between measured and predicted values (p < 0.01). In conclusion, rowers with motor disabilities tolerate 1RM testing procedures, and predicting 1RM equations are accurate for bench press and lying T-bar row, but not for leg press, in this kind of athlete.

HIV RNA testing in the context of nonoccupational postexposure prophylaxis.

PubMed

Roland, Michelle E; Elbeik, Tarek A; Kahn, James O; Bamberger, Joshua D; Coates, Thomas J; Krone, Melissa R; Katz, Mitchell H; Busch, Michael P; Martin, Jeffrey N

2004-08-01

The specificity and positive predictive value of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA assays have not been evaluated in the setting of postexposure prophylaxis (PEP). Plasma from subjects enrolled in a nonoccupational PEP study was tested with 2 branched-chain DNA (bDNA) assays, 2 polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays, and a transcription-mediated amplification (TMA) assay. Assay specificity and positive predictive value were determined for subjects who remained negative for HIV antibody for >or=3 months. In 329 subjects examined, the lowest specificities (90.1%-93.7%) were seen for bDNA testing performed in real time. The highest specificities were seen with batched bDNA version 3.0 (99.1%), standard PCR (99.4%), ultrasensitive PCR (100%), and TMA (99.6%) testing. Only the 2 assays with the highest specificities had positive predictive values >40%. For the bDNA assays, increasing the cutoff point at which a test is called positive (e.g., from 50 copies/mL to 500 copies/mL for version 3.0) increased both specificity and positive predictive values to 100%. The positive predictive value of HIV RNA assays in individuals presenting for PEP is unacceptably low for bDNA-based testing and possibly acceptable for PCR- and TMA-based testing. Routine use of HIV RNA assays in such individuals is not recommended.

First French Pilot Quality Assessment of the EndoPredict Test for Early Luminal Breast Carcinoma.

PubMed

Lehmann-Che, Jacqueline; Miquel, Catherine; Wong, Jennifer; Callens, Celine; Rouleau, Etienne; Quillien, Veronique; Lozano, Nicolas; Cayre, Anne; Lacroix, Ludovic; Bieche, Ivan; Bertheau, Philippe; Teixeira, Luis; Llorca, Frederique Penault; Lamy, Pierre Jean; DE Cremoux, Patricia

2018-05-01

Genomic signatures are needed for the determination of prognosis in patients with early stage, estrogen receptor (ER)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative breast cancers. EndoPredict test is a RNA-based multigene assay that assesses the risk of 10-year relapse in this context. Quality assessment is a mandatory requirement for a laboratory to address the analytical quality of these molecular analyses. The aim of the study was to demonstrate the robustness of this prognostic test, its usefulness for the patient's treatment strategy, at the national level. This study presents a pilot quality assessment (QA) of the EndoPredict test using composite design, including the follow-up of internal control values (qREF) of the 12 genes of the assay for 151 independent tests and one formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) breast cancer sample. The evaluation of the test was performed by comparing the results of six independent medical laboratories. All measures were highly reproducible and quantification of the qREF showed a standard deviation of less than 0.50 and a coefficient of variation always of <2%. All laboratories found concordant results for the breast cancer samples. The mean EndoPredict (EP) score for the breast cancer sample was 4.97±0.24. The mean of EPclin score was 3.07±0.05. This first French independent reported QA assessed the robustness and reproducibility of the EndoPredict test. Such a simple composite design could represent an adapted QA for an expensive diagnostic test. Copyright© 2018, International Institute of Anticancer Research (Dr. George J. Delinasios), All rights reserved.

Predictability of gypsy moth defoliation in central hardwoods: a validation study

Treesearch

David E. Fosbroke; Ray R., Jr. Hicks

1993-01-01

A model for predicting gypsy moth defoliation in central hardwood forests based on stand characteristics was evaluated following a 5-year outbreak in Pennsylvania and Maryland. Study area stand characteristics were similar to those of the areas used to develop the model. Comparisons are made between model predictive capability in two physiographic provinces. The tested...

A testing strategy to predict risk for drug-induced liver injury in humans using high-content screen assays and the 'rule-of-two' model.

PubMed

Chen, Minjun; Tung, Chun-Wei; Shi, Qiang; Guo, Lei; Shi, Leming; Fang, Hong; Borlak, Jürgen; Tong, Weida

2014-07-01

Drug-induced liver injury (DILI) is a major cause of drug failures in both the preclinical and clinical phase. Consequently, improving prediction of DILI at an early stage of drug discovery will reduce the potential failures in the subsequent drug development program. In this regard, high-content screening (HCS) assays are considered as a promising strategy for the study of DILI; however, the predictive performance of HCS assays is frequently insufficient. In the present study, a new testing strategy was developed to improve DILI prediction by employing in vitro assays that was combined with the RO2 model (i.e., 'rule-of-two' defined by daily dose ≥100 mg/day & logP ≥3). The RO2 model was derived from the observation that high daily doses and lipophilicity of an oral medication were associated with significant DILI risk in humans. In the developed testing strategy, the RO2 model was used for the rational selection of candidates for HCS assays, and only the negatives predicted by the RO2 model were further investigated by HCS. Subsequently, the effects of drug treatment on cell loss, nuclear size, DNA damage/fragmentation, apoptosis, lysosomal mass, mitochondrial membrane potential, and steatosis were studied in cultures of primary rat hepatocytes. Using a set of 70 drugs with clear evidence of clinically relevant DILI, the testing strategy improved the accuracies by 10 % and reduced the number of drugs requiring experimental assessment by approximately 20 %, as compared to the HCS assay alone. Moreover, the testing strategy was further validated by including published data (Cosgrove et al. in Toxicol Appl Pharmacol 237:317-330, 2009) on drug-cytokine-induced hepatotoxicity, which improved the accuracies by 7 %. Taken collectively, the proposed testing strategy can significantly improve the prediction of in vitro assays for detecting DILI liability in an early drug discovery phase.

Comparison of the effectiveness of a PAMG-1 test and standard clinical assessment in the prediction of preterm birth and reduction of unnecessary hospital admissions.

PubMed

Lotfi, Ghassan; Faraz, Saima; Nasir, Razan; Somini, Sreenisha; Abdeldayem, Rasha M; Koratkar, Raghunandini; Alsawalhi, Nadia; Ammar, Abeer

2017-10-26

The purpose of this study is to first compare the performance of the PAMG-1 biomarker test to that of standard clinical assessment (SCA) for the risk assessment of spontaneous preterm delivery (sPTD) among women with symptoms of preterm labor (PTL) and then calculate the potential impact on unnecessary admission reduction. Patients of gestational age 24 0/7 -36 6/7 with PTL symptoms, cervical dilatation ≤3 cm, no intercourse within 24 h, and clinically intact membranes were recruited consecutively into this prospective observational study. Specificity (SP), sensitivity (SN), positive-predictive value (PPV), and negative-predictive value (NPV) for the PAMG-1 test and SCA, for which a positive result was defined as patient admission, for predicting spontaneous delivery ≤7 and ≤14 d of presentation were calculated. One hundred and forty-eight patients were included in the analysis, 132 of which had both SCA and PAMG-1 results available. For the prediction of sPTD ≤7 d for SCA and PAMG-1, the PPV and NPV were 10% and 100%, and 71% and 98%, respectively. For prediction of sPTD ≤14 d for SCA and PAMG-1, the PPV and NPV were 14% and 100%, and 86% and 96%, respectively. Sixty-one per cent (81/132) of patients were admitted for treatment and/or observation. Our study reinforces the critical role of the PAMG-1 biomarker test to aid in risk assessment of imminent spontaneous preterm delivery in patients with symptoms of PTL. The PAMG-1 test was found to be statistically superior to standard clinical assessment alone, with respect to specificity. Based on our data, the introduction of a PAMG-1 test result into clinical decision making could reduce up to 91% of unnecessary admissions for women presenting with threatened preterm labor.

Comparison of aerobic capacity in annually certified and uncertified volunteer firefighters.

PubMed

Hammer, Rodney L; Heath, Edward M

2013-05-01

The leading cause of mortality among firefighters has been cardiac arrest precipitated by stress and overexertion with volunteer firefighters having double the death rate from this cause compared with career firefighters. In an attempt to reduce on-duty sudden cardiac deaths, annual fitness testing, and certification, has been widely instigated in wildland firefighters, who have half the cardiac arrest death rate of structural firefighters. The hypothesis was that annual fitness testing would serve as motivation to produce higher cardiorespiratory fitness. This study compared predicted aerobic capacity in annually certified and uncertified volunteer firefighters. Each firefighter performed a submaximal treadmill test to predict V[Combining Dot Above]O2max. Certified volunteer firefighters, who participated in annual fitness testing, had a predicted V[Combining Dot Above]O2max of 39.9 ± 8.4 ml·kg·min. Uncertified volunteer firefighters had a predicted V[Combining Dot Above]O2max of 37.8 ± 8.5 ml·kg·min. Annual fitness testing during the certification process did not contribute to statistically higher (F2,78 = 0.627, p = 0.431) V[Combining Dot Above]O2max levels in certified volunteer firefighters. Although there was no significant difference in predicted V[Combining Dot Above]O2max values for certified and uncertified volunteer firefighters, it was reported that 30% of volunteer firefighters had predicted aerobic capacities below the recommended minimum V[Combining Dot Above]O2max level of 33.5 ml·kg·min. Current annual fitness testing for volunteer firefighters does not seem to be effective. Thus, the study emphasizes the need of a higher priority for firefighter fitness programs to best ensure the safety of firefighters and the public.

Triple Test in Carcinoma Breast

PubMed Central

Sameer; Mukherjee, Arindam

2014-01-01

Introduction: The commonest clinical presentation in majority of breast pathology is a lump. A definite diagnosis of breast lump is very important for the surgeon to decide on the final course of treatment and also saves the patient from unnecessary physical, emotional and psychological trauma if there is a definite preoperative diagnosis of benign lesion. The present study was done to evaluate the effectiveness and relevance of “TRIPLE TEST”in diagnosis of carcinoma breast in rural labour class population. Materials and Methods: The present study was a prospective study conducted on patients over 35 years of age having palpable breast lumps presenting in the out patient department of general surgery, ESI Hospital Basaidarapur New Delhi, India. The duration of study was from May 2007 to June 2009 and a total of 100 cases were studied. Each patient was subjected to a detailed history, clinical breast examination ,diagnostic mammography and FNAC. In this study, the results of each modality was divided in three groups: benign, suspicious and malignant. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and diagnostic accuracy of each test was calculated individually and as combined. Result: Out of 100 patients enrolled in this study, 60 cases were benign and 40 cases were of malignant breast disease. The age of patients with carcinoma breast in the series varied from 35 years to 70 years. The highest incidence of malignancy noted was 30% in 41-50 years age group (4th decade) followed by 27.5% in 51-60 years age group (5th decade). The sensitivity of clinical examination was found to be 75%, specificity was 83.3%, positive predictive value (PPV) of 75% and diagnostic accuracy of 80%. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and diagnostic accuracy of mammography was calculated and was found to be 94.9% , 90% , 86% and 92% respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and diagnostic accuracy of FNAC was 94.7%, 98.3%, 97.3% and 96.6% respectively. Out of 100 cases triple test was concordant (all three test either benign or malignant) in 80 cases, all the benign cases detected by triple test were benign on final biopsy i.e. 100% specificity and 100% negative predictive value. Conclusion: TTS is an accurate and least invasive diagnostic test based on which definitive treatment can be initiated. PMID:25478391

Memory Binding Test Predicts Incident Dementia: Results from the Einstein Aging Study.

PubMed

Mowrey, Wenzhu B; Lipton, Richard B; Katz, Mindy J; Ramratan, Wendy S; Loewenstein, David A; Zimmerman, Molly E; Buschke, Herman

2018-01-01

The Memory Binding Test (MBT) demonstrated good cross-sectional discriminative validity and predicted incident aMCI. To assess whether the MBT predicts incident dementia better than a conventional list learning test in a longitudinal community-based study. As a sub-study in the Einstein Aging Study, 309 participants age≥70 initially free of dementia were administered the MBT and followed annually for incident dementia for up to 13 years. Based on previous work, poor memory binding was defined using an optimal empirical cut-score of≤17 on the binding measure of the MBT, Total Items in the Paired condition (TIP). Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess predictive validity adjusting for covariates. We compared the predictive validity of MBT TIP to that of the free and cued selective reminding test free recall score (FCSRT-FR; cut-score:≤24) and the single list recall measure of the MBT, Cued Recalled from List 1 (CR-L1; cut-score:≤12). Thirty-five of 309 participants developed incident dementia. When assessing each test alone, the hazard ratio (HR) for dementia was significant for MBT TIP (HR = 8.58, 95% CI: (3.58, 20.58), p < 0.0001), FCSRT-FR (HR = 4.19, 95% CI: (1.94, 9.04), p = 0.0003) and MBT CR-L1 (HR = 2.91, 95% CI: (1.37, 6.18), p = 0.006). MBT TIP remained a significant predictor of dementia (p = 0.0002) when adjusting for FCSRT-FR or CR-L1. Older adults with poor memory binding as measured by the MBT TIP were at increased risk for incident dementia. This measure outperforms conventional episodic memory measures of free and cued recall, supporting the memory binding hypothesis.

Psychological, situational and application-related determinants of the intention to self-test: a factorial survey among students.

PubMed

Kuecuekbalaban, Pinar; Rostalski, Tim; Schmidt, Silke; Muehlan, Holger

2017-07-10

The Internet enables an unprecedented opportunity to access a broad range of self-tests (e.g. testing for HIV, cancer, hepatitis B/C), which can be conducted by lay consumers without the help of a health professional. However, there is only little knowledge about the determinants of the use of self-tests. Thus, the aims of this study were (1) to experimentally investigate the impact of situational and application-related characteristics on the intention to use a self-test (ST), compared to being tested by a health professional at home (HPH) or at a doctor's office (HPD), (2) to examine the applicability of social-cognitive health behaviour theories on self-testing, and (3) to explore the advantages of integrating technological affinity into social-cognitive health behaviour models to predict self-testing. In a factorial survey, 1248 vignettes were rated by 208 students. The core concepts of social-cognitive health behaviour theories, technological affinity, and different situational and application-related characteristics were investigated. Intention to ST was only predicted by the medical expertise of the tested person, while HPH and HPD were also associated with the application purpose of the test and the presence of an emotionally supporting person. Perceived severity and outcome-expectancy significantly predicted intention to self-test. Technological enthusiastic people had a higher intention to use a self-test. Intention to ST, HPH and HPD were predicted by different situational and application-related characteristics. Social-cognitive health behaviour theories can be applied to predict self-testing and do not need to be extended by technological affinity.

"Eyeball test" of thermographic patterns for predicting a successful lateral infraclavicular block.

PubMed

Andreasen, Asger M; Linnet, Karen E; Asghar, Semera; Rothe, Christian; Rosenstock, Charlotte V; Lange, Kai H W; Lundstrøm, Lars H

2017-11-01

Increased distal skin temperature can be used to predict the success of lateral infraclavicular (LIC) block. We hypothesized that an "eyeball test" of specific infrared thermographic patterns after LIC block could be used to determine block success. In this observational study, five observers trained in four distinct thermographic patterns independently evaluated thermographic images of the hands of 40 patients at baseline and at one-minute intervals for 30 min after a LIC block. Sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values of a positive and a negative test were estimated to evaluate the validity of specific thermographic patterns for predicting a successful block. Sensory and motor block of the musculocutaneous, radial, ulnar, and median nerves defined block success. Fleiss' kappa statistics of multiple interobserver agreements were used to evaluate reliability. As a diagnostic test, the defined specific thermographic patterns of the hand predicted a successful block with increasing accuracy over the 30-min observation period. Block success was predicted with a sensitivity of 92.4% (95% confidence interval [CI], 86.8 to 96.2) and with a specificity of 84.0% (95% CI, 70.3 to 92.4) at min 30. The Fleiss' kappa for the five observers was 0.87 (95% CI, 0.77 to 0.96). We conclude that visual evaluation by an eyeball test of specific thermographic patterns of the blocked hands may be useful as a valid and reliable diagnostic test for predicting a successful LIC block.

Structural Dynamics Modeling of HIRENASD in Support of the Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wieseman, Carol; Chwalowski, Pawel; Heeg, Jennifer; Boucke, Alexander; Castro, Jack

2013-01-01

An Aeroelastic Prediction Workshop (AePW) was held in April 2012 using three aeroelasticity case study wind tunnel tests for assessing the capabilities of various codes in making aeroelasticity predictions. One of these case studies was known as the HIRENASD model that was tested in the European Transonic Wind Tunnel (ETW). This paper summarizes the development of a standardized enhanced analytical HIRENASD structural model for use in the AePW effort. The modifications to the HIRENASD finite element model were validated by comparing modal frequencies, evaluating modal assurance criteria, comparing leading edge, trailing edge and twist of the wing with experiment and by performing steady and unsteady CFD analyses for one of the test conditions on the same grid, and identical processing of results.

Abdominal compartment syndrome and ruptured aortic aneurysm: Validation of a predictive test (SCA-AAR).

PubMed

Leclerc, Betty; Salomon Du Mont, Lucie; Parmentier, Anne-Laure; Besch, Guillaume; Rinckenbach, Simon

2018-06-01

The abdominal compartment syndrome (ACS) has been clearly identified as being one of the main causes of mortality after ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm (rAAA). The ACS is defined as a sustained intra-abdominal pressure > 20 mm Hg associated with a new organ dysfunction or failure. A pilot study was conducted and found that the threshold of 3 among 8 selected criteria, we would predict an ACS occurrence with a 54% positive predictive value and a 92% negative predictive value. But a multicentric prospective study was clearly needed to confirm these results. The outcome of this new study is to assess the qualities of a predictive test on occurrence of the ACS after rAAA surgery. This is a 30 months prospective cohort study conducted in 12 centers and 165 patients will be included. All patients with a rAAA will be consecutively included, whatever the surgical treatment. At the end of surgery, all patients have an abdominal closure and a monitoring of intrabladder pressure will be established every 3 to 4 hours. Decompressive laparotomy will be indicated when ACS occurs. Follow-up period is 1 month. Eight pre- and per-operative criteria will be studied: anemia, hypotension, cardiac arrest, obesity, massive fluid resuscitation, transfusion, hypothermia, and acidosis. In the literature, there is no recommendation about prophylactic decompression, but early decompressive laparotomy appears to improve survival. This study should make it possible to establish a predictive test, detect the ACS early, and consider a prophylactic decompression in the operating room. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02859662, Registered on 4 August 2016.

A study of the 200-metre fast walk test as a possible new assessment tool to predict maximal heart rate and define target heart rate for exercise training of coronary heart disease patients.

PubMed

Casillas, Jean-Marie; Joussain, Charles; Gremeaux, Vincent; Hannequin, Armelle; Rapin, Amandine; Laurent, Yves; Benaïm, Charles

2015-02-01

To develop a new predictive model of maximal heart rate based on two walking tests at different speeds (comfortable and brisk walking) as an alternative to a cardiopulmonary exercise test during cardiac rehabilitation. Evaluation of a clinical assessment tool. A Cardiac Rehabilitation Department in France. A total of 148 patients (133 men), mean age of 59 ±9 years, at the end of an outpatient cardiac rehabilitation programme. Patients successively performed a 6-minute walk test, a 200 m fast-walk test (200mFWT), and a cardiopulmonary exercise test, with measure of heart rate at the end of each test. An all-possible regression procedure was used to determine the best predictive regression models of maximal heart rate. The best model was compared with the Fox equation in term of predictive error of maximal heart rate using the paired t-test. Results of the two walking tests correlated significantly with maximal heart rate determined during the cardiopulmonary exercise test, whereas anthropometric parameters and resting heart rate did not. The simplified predictive model with the most acceptable mean error was: maximal heart rate = 130 - 0.6 × age + 0.3 × HR200mFWT (R(2) = 0.24). This model was superior to the Fox formula (R(2) = 0.138). The relationship between training target heart rate calculated from measured reserve heart rate and that established using this predictive model was statistically significant (r = 0.528, p < 10(-6)). A formula combining heart rate measured during a safe simple fast walk test and age is more efficient than an equation only including age to predict maximal heart rate and training target heart rate. © The Author(s) 2014.

Selective testing strategies for diagnosing group A streptococcal infection in children with pharyngitis: a systematic review and prospective multicentre external validation study

PubMed Central

Cohen, Jérémie F.; Cohen, Robert; Levy, Corinne; Thollot, Franck; Benani, Mohamed; Bidet, Philippe; Chalumeau, Martin

2015-01-01

Background: Several clinical prediction rules for diagnosing group A streptococcal infection in children with pharyngitis are available. We aimed to compare the diagnostic accuracy of rules-based selective testing strategies in a prospective cohort of children with pharyngitis. Methods: We identified clinical prediction rules through a systematic search of MEDLINE and Embase (1975–2014), which we then validated in a prospective cohort involving French children who presented with pharyngitis during a 1-year period (2010–2011). We diagnosed infection with group A streptococcus using two throat swabs: one obtained for a rapid antigen detection test (StreptAtest, Dectrapharm) and one obtained for culture (reference standard). We validated rules-based selective testing strategies as follows: low risk of group A streptococcal infection, no further testing or antibiotic therapy needed; intermediate risk of infection, rapid antigen detection for all patients and antibiotic therapy for those with a positive test result; and high risk of infection, empiric antibiotic treatment. Results: We identified 8 clinical prediction rules, 6 of which could be prospectively validated. Sensitivity and specificity of rules-based selective testing strategies ranged from 66% (95% confidence interval [CI] 61–72) to 94% (95% CI 92–97) and from 40% (95% CI 35–45) to 88% (95% CI 85–91), respectively. Use of rapid antigen detection testing following the clinical prediction rule ranged from 24% (95% CI 21–27) to 86% (95% CI 84–89). None of the rules-based selective testing strategies achieved our diagnostic accuracy target (sensitivity and specificity > 85%). Interpretation: Rules-based selective testing strategies did not show sufficient diagnostic accuracy in this study population. The relevance of clinical prediction rules for determining which children with pharyngitis should undergo a rapid antigen detection test remains questionable. PMID:25487666

Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models

PubMed Central

Nieboer, Daan; van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Steyerberg, Ewout W.

2016-01-01

Introduction External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting. Methods We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1) the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2) the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury. Results The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples) and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples). Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2. Conclusion The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients. PMID:26881753

Assessing Discriminative Performance at External Validation of Clinical Prediction Models.

PubMed

Nieboer, Daan; van der Ploeg, Tjeerd; Steyerberg, Ewout W

2016-01-01

External validation studies are essential to study the generalizability of prediction models. Recently a permutation test, focusing on discrimination as quantified by the c-statistic, was proposed to judge whether a prediction model is transportable to a new setting. We aimed to evaluate this test and compare it to previously proposed procedures to judge any changes in c-statistic from development to external validation setting. We compared the use of the permutation test to the use of benchmark values of the c-statistic following from a previously proposed framework to judge transportability of a prediction model. In a simulation study we developed a prediction model with logistic regression on a development set and validated them in the validation set. We concentrated on two scenarios: 1) the case-mix was more heterogeneous and predictor effects were weaker in the validation set compared to the development set, and 2) the case-mix was less heterogeneous in the validation set and predictor effects were identical in the validation and development set. Furthermore we illustrated the methods in a case study using 15 datasets of patients suffering from traumatic brain injury. The permutation test indicated that the validation and development set were homogenous in scenario 1 (in almost all simulated samples) and heterogeneous in scenario 2 (in 17%-39% of simulated samples). Previously proposed benchmark values of the c-statistic and the standard deviation of the linear predictors correctly pointed at the more heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 1 and the less heterogeneous case-mix in scenario 2. The recently proposed permutation test may provide misleading results when externally validating prediction models in the presence of case-mix differences between the development and validation population. To correctly interpret the c-statistic found at external validation it is crucial to disentangle case-mix differences from incorrect regression coefficients.

Base Rates, Contingencies, and Prediction Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kareev, Yaakov; Fiedler, Klaus; Avrahami, Judith

2009-01-01

A skew in the base rate of upcoming events can often provide a better cue for accurate predictions than a contingency between signals and events. The authors study prediction behavior and test people's sensitivity to both base rate and contingency; they also examine people's ability to compare the benefits of both for prediction. They formalize…

Evaluating Empirical Relationships among Prediction, Measurement, and Scaling Invariance. Research Report. ETS RR-11-06

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Moses, Tim

2011-01-01

The purpose of this study was to consider the relationships of prediction, measurement, and scaling invariance when these invariances were simultaneously evaluated in psychometric test data. An approach was developed to evaluate prediction, measurement, and scaling invariance based on linear and nonlinear prediction, measurement, and scaling…

Evaluating a stage model in predicting monolingual spanish-speaking Latinas' cervical cancer screening practices: the role of psychosocial and cultural predictors.

PubMed

Arredondo, Elva Maria; Pollak, Kathryn; Costanzo, Philip R

2008-12-01

The goals of this study are to evaluate (a) the effectiveness of a stage model in predicting Latinas' self-report of obtaining a Pap test and (b) the unique role of psychosocial/cultural factors in predicting progress toward behavior change. One-on-one structured interviews with monolingual Spanish-speaking Latinas (n=190) were conducted. Most participants (85%) intended to obtain a Pap smear within 1 year; therefore, staging women based on intention was not possible. Moreover, results from the polychotomous hierarchical logistic regression suggest that psychosocial and cultural factors were independent predictors of Pap test history. A stage model may not be appropriate for predicting Pap test screening among Latinas. Results suggest that unique cultural, psychosocial, and demographic factors may inhibit cervical cancer screening practices. Clinicians may need to tailor messages on these cultural and psychosocial factors to increase Pap testing among Latinas.

Technology Solutions Case Study: Predicting Envelope Leakage in Attached Dwellings

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2013-11-01

The most common method of measuring air leakage is to perform single (or solo) blower door pressurization and/or depressurization test. In detached housing, the single blower door test measures leakage to the outside. In attached housing, however, this “solo” test method measures both air leakage to the outside and air leakage between adjacent units through common surfaces. In an attempt to create a simplified tool for predicting leakage to the outside, Building America team Consortium for Advanced Residential Buildings (CARB) performed a preliminary statistical analysis on blower door test results from 112 attached dwelling units in four apartment complexes. Althoughmore » the subject data set is limited in size and variety, the preliminary analyses suggest significant predictors are present and support the development of a predictive model. Further data collection is underway to create a more robust prediction tool for use across different construction types, climate zones, and unit configurations.« less

Comparing toxicologic and epidemiologic studies: methylene chloride--a case study.

PubMed

Stayner, L T; Bailer, A J

1993-12-01

Exposure to methylene chloride induces lung and liver cancers in mice. The mouse bioassay data have been used as the basis for several cancer risk assessments. The results from epidemiologic studies of workers exposed to methylene chloride have been mixed with respect to demonstrating an increased cancer risk. The results from a negative epidemiologic study of Kodak workers have been used by two groups of investigators to test the predictions from the EPA risk assessment models. These two groups used very different approaches to this problem, which resulted in opposite conclusions regarding the consistency between the animal model predictions and the Kodak study results. The results from the Kodak study are used to test the predictions from OSHA's multistage models of liver and lung cancer risk. Confidence intervals for the standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) from the Kodak study are compared with the predicted confidence intervals derived from OSHA's risk assessment models. Adjustments for the "healthy worker effect," differences in length of follow-up, and dosimetry between animals and humans were incorporated into these comparisons. Based on these comparisons, we conclude that the negative results from the Kodak study are not inconsistent with the predictions from OSHA's risk assessment model.

Novel design strategy for checkpoint kinase 2 inhibitors using pharmacophore modeling, combinatorial fusion, and virtual screening.

PubMed

Lin, Chun-Yuan; Wang, Yen-Ling

2014-01-01

Checkpoint kinase 2 (Chk2) has a great effect on DNA-damage and plays an important role in response to DNA double-strand breaks and related lesions. In this study, we will concentrate on Chk2 and the purpose is to find the potential inhibitors by the pharmacophore hypotheses (PhModels), combinatorial fusion, and virtual screening techniques. Applying combinatorial fusion into PhModels and virtual screening techniques is a novel design strategy for drug design. We used combinatorial fusion to analyze the prediction results and then obtained the best correlation coefficient of the testing set (r test) with the value 0.816 by combining the Best(train)Best(test) and Fast(train)Fast(test) prediction results. The potential inhibitors were selected from NCI database by screening according to Best(train)Best(test) + Fast(train)Fast(test) prediction results and molecular docking with CDOCKER docking program. Finally, the selected compounds have high interaction energy between a ligand and a receptor. Through these approaches, 23 potential inhibitors for Chk2 are retrieved for further study.

Validation of a short cognitive battery to screen for fitness-to-drive of people with multiple sclerosis.

PubMed

Akinwuntan, A E; Backus, D; Grayson, J; Devos, H

2018-05-26

Some symptoms of multiple sclerosis (MS) affect driving. In a recent study, performance on five cognitive tests predicted the on-road test performance of individuals with relapsing-remitting MS with 91% accuracy, 70% sensitivity and 97% specificity. However, the accuracy with which the battery will predict the driving performance of a different cohort that includes all types of MS is unknown. Participants (n = 118; 48 ± 9 years of age; 97 females) performed a comprehensive off-road evaluation that lasted about 3 h and a standardized on-road test that lasted approximately 45 min over a 2-day period within the same week. Performance on the five cognitive tests was used to predict participants' performance on the standardized on-road test. Performance on the five tests together predicted outcome of the on-road test with 82% accuracy, 42% sensitivity and 90% specificity. The accuracy of predicting the on-road performance of a new MS cohort using performance on the battery of five cognitive tests remained very high (82%). The battery, which was administrable in <45 min and cost ~$150, was better at identifying those who actually passed the on-road test (90% specificity). The sensitivity (42%) of the battery indicated that it should not be used as the sole determinant of poor driving-related cognitive skills. A fail performance on the battery should only imply that more comprehensive testing is warranted. © 2018 EAN.

Diagnostic characteristics and prognoses of primary-care patients referred for clinical exercise testing: a prospective observational study.

PubMed

Nilsson, Gunnar; Mooe, Thomas; Stenlund, Hans; Samuelsson, Eva

2014-04-18

Evaluation of angina symptoms in primary care often includes clinical exercise testing. We sought to identify clinical characteristics that predicted the outcome of exercise testing and to describe the occurrence of cardiovascular events during follow-up. This study followed patients referred to exercise testing for suspected coronary disease by general practitioners in the County of Jämtland, Sweden (enrolment, 25 months from February 2010). Patient characteristics were registered by pre-test questionnaire. Exercise tests were performed with a bicycle ergometer, a 12-lead electrocardiogram, and validated scales for scoring angina symptoms. Exercise tests were classified as positive (ST-segment depression >1 mm and chest pain indicative of angina), non-conclusive (ST depression or chest pain), or negative. Odds ratios (ORs) for exercise-test outcome were calculated with a bivariate logistic model adjusted for age, sex, systolic blood pressure, and previous cardiovascular events. Cardiovascular events (unstable angina, myocardial infarctions, decisions on revascularization, cardiovascular death, and recurrent angina in primary care) were recorded within six months. A probability cut-off of 10% was used to detect cardiovascular events in relation to the predicted test outcome. We enrolled 865 patients (mean age 63.5 years, 50.6% men); 6.4% of patients had a positive test, 75.5% were negative, 16.4% were non-conclusive, and 1.7% were not assessable. Positive or non-conclusive test results were predicted by exertional chest pain (OR 2.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.69-3.59), a pathologic ST-T segment on resting electrocardiogram (OR 2.29, 95% CI 1.44-3.63), angina according to the patient (OR 1.70, 95% CI 1.13-2.55), and medication for dyslipidaemia (OR 1.51, 95% CI 1.02-2.23). During follow-up, cardiovascular events occurred in 8% of all patients and 4% were referred to revascularization. Cardiovascular events occurred in 52.7%, 18.3%, and 2% of patients with positive, non-conclusive, or negative tests, respectively. The model predicted 67/69 patients with a cardiovascular event. Clinical characteristics can be used to predict exercise test outcome. Primary care patients with a negative exercise test have a very low risk of cardiovascular events, within six months. A predictive model based on clinical characteristics can be used to refine the identification of low-risk patients.

Predicting Protein-protein Association Rates using Coarse-grained Simulation and Machine Learning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Zhong-Ru; Chen, Jiawen; Wu, Yinghao

2017-04-01

Protein-protein interactions dominate all major biological processes in living cells. We have developed a new Monte Carlo-based simulation algorithm to study the kinetic process of protein association. We tested our method on a previously used large benchmark set of 49 protein complexes. The predicted rate was overestimated in the benchmark test compared to the experimental results for a group of protein complexes. We hypothesized that this resulted from molecular flexibility at the interface regions of the interacting proteins. After applying a machine learning algorithm with input variables that accounted for both the conformational flexibility and the energetic factor of binding, we successfully identified most of the protein complexes with overestimated association rates and improved our final prediction by using a cross-validation test. This method was then applied to a new independent test set and resulted in a similar prediction accuracy to that obtained using the training set. It has been thought that diffusion-limited protein association is dominated by long-range interactions. Our results provide strong evidence that the conformational flexibility also plays an important role in regulating protein association. Our studies provide new insights into the mechanism of protein association and offer a computationally efficient tool for predicting its rate.

Predicting Protein–protein Association Rates using Coarse-grained Simulation and Machine Learning

PubMed Central

Xie, Zhong-Ru; Chen, Jiawen; Wu, Yinghao

2017-01-01

Protein–protein interactions dominate all major biological processes in living cells. We have developed a new Monte Carlo-based simulation algorithm to study the kinetic process of protein association. We tested our method on a previously used large benchmark set of 49 protein complexes. The predicted rate was overestimated in the benchmark test compared to the experimental results for a group of protein complexes. We hypothesized that this resulted from molecular flexibility at the interface regions of the interacting proteins. After applying a machine learning algorithm with input variables that accounted for both the conformational flexibility and the energetic factor of binding, we successfully identified most of the protein complexes with overestimated association rates and improved our final prediction by using a cross-validation test. This method was then applied to a new independent test set and resulted in a similar prediction accuracy to that obtained using the training set. It has been thought that diffusion-limited protein association is dominated by long-range interactions. Our results provide strong evidence that the conformational flexibility also plays an important role in regulating protein association. Our studies provide new insights into the mechanism of protein association and offer a computationally efficient tool for predicting its rate. PMID:28418043

Predicting Protein-protein Association Rates using Coarse-grained Simulation and Machine Learning.

PubMed

Xie, Zhong-Ru; Chen, Jiawen; Wu, Yinghao

2017-04-18

Protein-protein interactions dominate all major biological processes in living cells. We have developed a new Monte Carlo-based simulation algorithm to study the kinetic process of protein association. We tested our method on a previously used large benchmark set of 49 protein complexes. The predicted rate was overestimated in the benchmark test compared to the experimental results for a group of protein complexes. We hypothesized that this resulted from molecular flexibility at the interface regions of the interacting proteins. After applying a machine learning algorithm with input variables that accounted for both the conformational flexibility and the energetic factor of binding, we successfully identified most of the protein complexes with overestimated association rates and improved our final prediction by using a cross-validation test. This method was then applied to a new independent test set and resulted in a similar prediction accuracy to that obtained using the training set. It has been thought that diffusion-limited protein association is dominated by long-range interactions. Our results provide strong evidence that the conformational flexibility also plays an important role in regulating protein association. Our studies provide new insights into the mechanism of protein association and offer a computationally efficient tool for predicting its rate.

Evaluation of canine adverse food reactions by patch testing with single proteins, single carbohydrates and commercial foods.

PubMed

Johansen, Cornelia; Mariani, Claire; Mueller, Ralf S

2017-10-01

Adverse food reaction (AFR) is an important differential diagnosis for the pruritic dog. It is usually diagnosed by feeding an elimination diet with a novel protein and carbohydrate source for eight weeks followed by subsequent food provocation. A previous study demonstrated that patch testing dogs with foods had a high sensitivity and negative predictability for selection of elimination diet ingredients. The aim of this study was to investigate patch testing with proteins, carbohydrates and dry commercial dog food in dogs to determine whether there was value in patch testing to aid the diagnosis of canine adverse food reaction. Twenty five privately owned dogs, with confirmed AFR, underwent provocation trials with selected food antigens and patch testing. For proteins, carbohydrates and dry dog food the sensitivity of patch testing was 100%, 70% and 22.2%, respectively; the negative predictive values of patch testing were 100%, 79% and 72%. The positive predictive values of patch testing for proteins and carbohydrates were 75% and 74%, respectively. This study confirmed that patch testing may be useful for the selection of a suitable protein source for an elimination diet in dogs with suspected AFR, but not as a diagnostic tool for canine AFR. Results for proteins are more reliable than for carbohydrates and the majority of positive patch test reactions were observed with raw protein. Patch testing with commercial dog food does not seem to be useful. © 2017 ESVD and ACVD.

A study to ascertain the viability of ultrasonic nondestructive testing to determine the mechanical characteristics of wood/agricultural hardboards with soybean based adhesives

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Colen, Charles Raymond, Jr.

There have been numerous studies with ultrasonic nondestructive testing and wood fiber composites. The problem of the study was to ascertain whether ultrasonic nondestructive testing can be used in place of destructive testing to obtain the modulus of elasticity (MOE) of the wood/agricultural material with comparable results. The uniqueness of this research is that it addressed the type of content (cornstalks and switchgrass) being used with the wood fibers and the type of adhesives (soybean-based) associated with the production of these composite materials. Two research questions were addressed in the study. The major objective was to determine if one can predict the destructive test MOE value based on the nondestructive test MOE value. The population of the study was wood/agricultural fiberboards made from wood fibers, cornstalks, and switchgrass bonded together with soybean-based, urea-formaldehyde, and phenol-formaldehyde adhesives. Correlational analysis was used to determine if there was a relationship between the two tests. Regression analysis was performed to determine a prediction equation for the destructive test MOE value. Data were collected on both procedures using ultrasonic nondestructing testing and 3-point destructive testing. The results produced a simple linear regression model for this study which was adequate in the prediction of destructive MOE values if the nondestructive MOE value is known. An approximation very close to the entire error in the model equation was explained from the destructive test MOE values for the composites. The nondestructive MOE values used to produce a linear regression model explained 83% of the variability in the destructive test MOE values. The study also showed that, for the particular destructive test values obtained with the equipment used, the model associated with the study is as good as it could be due to the variability in the results from the destructive tests. In this study, an ultrasonic signal was used to determine the MOE values on nondestructive tests. Future research studies could use the same or other hardboards to examine how the resins affect the ultrasonic signal.

Basophil-activation tests in Hymenoptera allergy.

PubMed

Dubois, Anthony E J; van der Heide, Sicco

2007-08-01

Despite recent advances in our understanding of basophil biology and discovery of new markers for basophil activation, tests measuring basophil activation are not widely utilized in Hymenoptera allergy. Studies of the basophil-activation test in Hymenoptera allergy were examined and the clinical utility of this test was assessed. It has been demonstrated that the results of basophil-activation tests correlate quite well with those of serum IgE testing or skin-prick tests. Many studies compare test outcomes with history in patients and nonallergic controls, so that specificity in sensitized but clinically nonreactive individuals remains unknown. Although one study showed that the basophil-activation test might predict immunotherapy side effects, this could not be confirmed in a second study, and no role has been established for the basophil-activation test in the monitoring of venom immunotherapy. The basophil-activation test has no extra value in assessing sting challenges, although experience is limited. The measurement of basophil-activation markers may be useful in detecting IgE-mediated sensitization but the relevance for application of the basophil-activation test in prediction of clinical reactivity in Hymenoptera allergy is very limited. For this reason, this test currently has no established role in the diagnosis and management of patients with insect sting allergy.

Statistical Analysis of CFD Solutions from the Third AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morrison, Joseph H.; Hemsch, Michael J.

2007-01-01

The first AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop, held in June 2001, evaluated the results from an extensive N-version test of a collection of Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes CFD codes. The code-to-code scatter was more than an order of magnitude larger than desired for design and experimental validation of cruise conditions for a subsonic transport configuration. The second AIAA Drag Prediction Workshop, held in June 2003, emphasized the determination of installed pylon-nacelle drag increments and grid refinement studies. The code-to-code scatter was significantly reduced compared to the first DPW, but still larger than desired. However, grid refinement studies showed no significant improvement in code-to-code scatter with increasing grid refinement. The third Drag Prediction Workshop focused on the determination of installed side-of-body fairing drag increments and grid refinement studies for clean attached flow on wing alone configurations and for separated flow on the DLR-F6 subsonic transport model. This work evaluated the effect of grid refinement on the code-to-code scatter for the clean attached flow test cases and the separated flow test cases.

Testing and Life Prediction for Composite Rotor Hub Flexbeams

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Murri, Gretchen B.

2004-01-01

A summary of several studies of delamination in tapered composite laminates with internal ply-drops is presented. Initial studies used 2D FE models to calculate interlaminar stresses at the ply-ending locations in linear tapered laminates under tension loading. Strain energy release rates for delamination in these laminates indicated that delamination would likely start at the juncture of the tapered and thin regions and grow unstably in both directions. Tests of glass/epoxy and graphite/epoxy linear tapered laminates under axial tension delaminated as predicted. Nonlinear tapered specimens were cut from a full-size helicopter rotor hub and were tested under combined constant axial tension and cyclic transverse bending loading to simulate the loading experienced by a rotorhub flexbeam in flight. For all the tested specimens, delamination began at the tip of the outermost dropped ply group and grew first toward the tapered region. A 2D FE model was created that duplicated the test flexbeam layup, geometry, and loading. Surface strains calculated by the model agreed very closely with the measured surface strains in the specimens. The delamination patterns observed in the tests were simulated in the model by releasing pairs of MPCs along those interfaces. Strain energy release rates associated with the delamination growth were calculated for several configurations and using two different FE analysis codes. Calculations from the codes agreed very closely. The strain energy release rate results were used with material characterization data to predict fatigue delamination onset lives for nonlinear tapered flexbeams with two different ply-dropping schemes. The predicted curves agreed well with the test data for each case studied.

Physical activity behavior predicts endogenous pain modulation in older adults.

PubMed

Naugle, Kelly M; Ohlman, Thomas; Naugle, Keith E; Riley, Zachary A; Keith, NiCole R

2017-03-01

Older adults compared with younger adults are characterized by greater endogenous pain facilitation and a reduced capacity to endogenously inhibit pain, potentially placing them at a greater risk for chronic pain. Previous research suggests that higher levels of self-reported physical activity are associated with more effective pain inhibition and less pain facilitation on quantitative sensory tests in healthy adults. However, no studies have directly tested the relationship between physical activity behavior and pain modulatory function in older adults. This study examined whether objective measures of physical activity behavior cross-sectionally predicted pain inhibitory function on the conditioned pain modulation (CPM) test and pain facilitation on the temporal summation (TS) test in healthy older adults. Fifty-one older adults wore an accelerometer on the hip for 7 days and completed the CPM and TS tests. Measures of sedentary time, light physical activity (LPA), and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) were obtained from the accelerometer. Hierarchical linear regressions were conducted to determine the relationship of TS and CPM with levels of physical activity, while controlling for demographic, psychological, and test variables. The results indicated that sedentary time and LPA significantly predicted pain inhibitory function on the CPM test, with less sedentary time and greater LPA per day associated with greater pain inhibitory capacity. Additionally, MVPA predicted pain facilitation on the TS test, with greater MVPA associated with less TS of pain. These results suggest that different types of physical activity behavior may differentially impact pain inhibitory and facilitatory processes in older adults.

Diagnostic accuracy of patch test in children with food allergy.

PubMed

Caglayan Sozmen, Sule; Povesi Dascola, Carlotta; Gioia, Edoardo; Mastrorilli, Carla; Rizzuti, Laura; Caffarelli, Carlo

2015-08-01

The gold standard test for confirming whether a child has clinical hypersensitivity reactions to foods is the oral food challenge. Therefore, there is increasing interest in simpler diagnostic markers of food allergy, especially in children, to avoid oral food challenge. The goal of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of atopy patch test in comparison with oral food challenge. We investigated 243 children (mean age, 51 months) referred for evaluation of suspected egg or cow's milk allergy. Skin prick test and atopy patch test were carried out, and after a 2 weeks elimination diet, oral food challenge was performed. Two hundred and forty-three children underwent OFC to the suspected food. We found clinically relevant food allergies in 40 (65%) children to egg and in 22 (35%) to cow's milk. The sensitivity of skin prick test for both milk and egg was 92%, specificity 91%, positive predictive value 35%, and negative predictive value of 93%. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of atopy patch test for both milk and egg were 21%, 73%, 20%, and 74%, respectively. Our study suggests that there is insufficient evidence for the routine use of atopy patch test for the evaluation of egg and cow's milk allergy. OFC remains gold standard for the diagnosis of egg and milk allergy even in the presence of high costs in terms of both time and risks during application. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Predictive Models of target organ and Systemic toxicities (BOSC)

EPA Science Inventory

The objective of this work is to predict the hazard classification and point of departure (PoD) of untested chemicals in repeat-dose animal testing studies. We used supervised machine learning to objectively evaluate the predictive accuracy of different classification and regress...

HPV-testing versus HPV-cytology co-testing to predict the outcome after conization.

PubMed

Bruhn, Laerke Valsøe; Andersen, Sisse Josephine; Hariri, Jalil

2018-06-01

The purpose of this study was to determine the feasibility of human Papillomavirus (HPV) testing alone as a prognostic tool to predict recurrent disease within a three-year follow-up period after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN)2 + . Retrospectively, 128 women with histologically verified CIN2 + who had a conization performed at Southern Jutland Hospital in Denmark between 1 January 2013 and 31 December 2013 were included. Histology, cytology and HPV test results were obtained for a three-year follow-up period. 4.7% (6/128) of the cases developed recurrent disease during follow-up. Of the cases without free margins, recurrent dysplasia was detected normal in 10.4% (5/48), whereas in the group with free margins it was 1.3% (1/80). The post-conization HPV test was negative in 67.2% (86/128) and Pap smear normal in 93.7% (120/128). Combining resection margins, cytology and HPV had sensitivity for prediction of recurrent dysplasia of 100%. Specificity was 45.8%, positive predictive value (PPV) 8.5% and negative predictive value (NPV) 100%. Using HPV test alone as a predictor of recurrent dysplasia gave a sensitivity of 83.3%, specificity 69.7%, PPV 11.9% and NPV 98.8%. Combining resection margin and HPV test had a sensitivity of 100%, specificity 45.9%, PPV 8.3% and NPV 100%. HPV test at six months control post-conization gave an NPV of 98.8% and can be used as a solitary test to identify women at risk for recurrent disease three years after treatment for precursor lesions. Using both resection margin and HPV test had a sensitivity of 100% and NPV 100%. Adding cytology did not increase the predictive value. © 2018 Nordic Federation of Societies of Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Evaluation of a new in-clinic test system to detect feline immunodeficiency virus and feline leukemia virus infection.

PubMed

Sand, Christina; Englert, Theresa; Egberink, Herman; Lutz, Hans; Hartmann, Katrin

2010-06-01

Many in-house tests for the diagnosis of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and feline leukemia virus (FeLV) infection are licensed for use in veterinary practice. A new test with unknown performance has recently appeared on the market. The aims of this study were to define the efficacy of a new in-clinic test system, the Anigen Rapid FIV Ab/FeLV Ag Test, and to compare it with the current leading in-clinic test, the SNAP Kombi Plus FeLV Antigen/FIB Antibody Test. Three-hundred serum samples from randomly selected healthy and diseased cats presented to the Clinic of Small Animal Medicine at Ludwig Maximilian University were tested using both the Anigen Rapid Test and the SNAP Kombi Plus Test. Diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values were calculated for both tests using Western blot as the gold standard for verification of FIV infection and PCR as the gold standard for FeLV infection. The presence of antibodies against FIV was confirmed by Western blot in 9/300 samples (prevalence 3%). FeLV DNA was detected by PCR in 15/300 samples (prevalence 5%). For FIV infection the Anigen Rapid Test had a sensitivity of 88.9%, specificity of 99.7%, positive predictive value of 88.9%, and negative predictive value of 99.7%. For FeLV infection, the Anigen Rapid Test had a sensitivity of 40.0%, specificity of 100%, positive predictive value of 100%, and negative predictive value of 96.9%. Diagnostic accuracy was similar to that of the SNAP Kombi Plus Test. The new Anigen Rapid FIV Ab/FeLV Ag Test performed very well and can be recommended for use in veterinary practice.

Finding Furfural Hydrogenation Catalysts via Predictive Modelling

PubMed Central

Strassberger, Zea; Mooijman, Maurice; Ruijter, Eelco; Alberts, Albert H; Maldonado, Ana G; Orru, Romano V A; Rothenberg, Gadi

2010-01-01

Abstract We combine multicomponent reactions, catalytic performance studies and predictive modelling to find transfer hydrogenation catalysts. An initial set of 18 ruthenium-carbene complexes were synthesized and screened in the transfer hydrogenation of furfural to furfurol with isopropyl alcohol complexes gave varied yields, from 62% up to >99.9%, with no obvious structure/activity correlations. Control experiments proved that the carbene ligand remains coordinated to the ruthenium centre throughout the reaction. Deuterium-labelling studies showed a secondary isotope effect (kH:kD=1.5). Further mechanistic studies showed that this transfer hydrogenation follows the so-called monohydride pathway. Using these data, we built a predictive model for 13 of the catalysts, based on 2D and 3D molecular descriptors. We tested and validated the model using the remaining five catalysts (cross-validation, R2=0.913). Then, with this model, the conversion and selectivity were predicted for four completely new ruthenium-carbene complexes. These four catalysts were then synthesized and tested. The results were within 3% of the model’s predictions, demonstrating the validity and value of predictive modelling in catalyst optimization. PMID:23193388

Developing an in silico minimum inhibitory concentration panel test for Klebsiella pneumoniae

DOE PAGES

Nguyen, Marcus; Brettin, Thomas; Long, S. Wesley; ...

2018-01-11

Here, antimicrobial resistant infections are a serious public health threat worldwide. Whole genome sequencing approaches to rapidly identify pathogens and predict antibiotic resistance phenotypes are becoming more feasible and may offer a way to reduce clinical test turnaround times compared to conventional culture-based methods, and in turn, improve patient outcomes. In this study, we use whole genome sequence data from 1668 clinical isolates of Klebsiella pneumoniae to develop a XGBoost-based machine learning model that accurately predicts minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) for 20 antibiotics. The overall accuracy of the model, within ± 1 two-fold dilution factor, is 92%. Individual accuracies aremore » >= 90% for 15/20 antibiotics. We show that the MICs predicted by the model correlate with known antimicrobial resistance genes. Importantly, the genome-wide approach described in this study offers a way to predict MICs for isolates without knowledge of the underlying gene content. This study shows that machine learning can be used to build a complete in silico MIC prediction panel for K. pneumoniae and provides a framework for building MIC prediction models for other pathogenic bacteria.« less

Developing an in silico minimum inhibitory concentration panel test for Klebsiella pneumoniae

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nguyen, Marcus; Brettin, Thomas; Long, S. Wesley

Here, antimicrobial resistant infections are a serious public health threat worldwide. Whole genome sequencing approaches to rapidly identify pathogens and predict antibiotic resistance phenotypes are becoming more feasible and may offer a way to reduce clinical test turnaround times compared to conventional culture-based methods, and in turn, improve patient outcomes. In this study, we use whole genome sequence data from 1668 clinical isolates of Klebsiella pneumoniae to develop a XGBoost-based machine learning model that accurately predicts minimum inhibitory concentrations (MICs) for 20 antibiotics. The overall accuracy of the model, within ± 1 two-fold dilution factor, is 92%. Individual accuracies aremore » >= 90% for 15/20 antibiotics. We show that the MICs predicted by the model correlate with known antimicrobial resistance genes. Importantly, the genome-wide approach described in this study offers a way to predict MICs for isolates without knowledge of the underlying gene content. This study shows that machine learning can be used to build a complete in silico MIC prediction panel for K. pneumoniae and provides a framework for building MIC prediction models for other pathogenic bacteria.« less

Aerodynamic Performance Predictions of Single and Twin Jet Afterbodies

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Carlson, John R.; Pao, S. Paul; Abdol-Hamid, Khaled S.; Jones, William T.

1995-01-01

The multiblock three-dimensional Navier-Stokes method PAB3D was utilized by the Component Integration Branch (formerly Propulsion Aerodynamics Branch) at the NASA-Langley Research Center in an international study sponsored by AGARD Working Group #17 for the assessment of the state-of-the-art of propulsion-airframe integration testing techniques and CFD prediction technologies. Three test geometries from ONERA involving fundamental flow physics and four geometries from NASA-LaRC involving realistic flow interactions of wing, body, tail, and jet plumes were chosen by the Working Group. An overview of results on four (1 ONERA and 3 LaRC) of the seven test cases is presented. External static pressures, integrated pressure drag and total drag were calculated for the Langley test cases and jet plume velocity profiles and turbulent viscous stresses were calculated for the ONERA test case. Only selected data from these calculations are presented in this paper. The complete data sets calculated by the participants will be presented in an AGARD summary report. Predicted surface static pressures compared favorably with experimental data for the Langley geometries. Predicted afterbody drag compared well with experiment. Predicted nozzle drag was typically low due to over-compression of the flow near the trailing edge. Total drag was typically high. Predicted jet plume quantities on the ONERA case compared generally well with data.

Validation of a single-stage fixed-rate step test for the prediction of maximal oxygen uptake in healthy adults.

PubMed

Hansen, Dominique; Jacobs, Nele; Thijs, Herbert; Dendale, Paul; Claes, Neree

2016-09-01

Healthcare professionals with limited access to ergospirometry remain in need of valid and simple submaximal exercise tests to predict maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max ). Despite previous validation studies concerning fixed-rate step tests, accurate equations for the estimation of VO2max remain to be formulated from a large sample of healthy adults between age 18-75 years (n > 100). The aim of this study was to develop a valid equation to estimate VO2max from a fixed-rate step test in a larger sample of healthy adults. A maximal ergospirometry test, with assessment of cardiopulmonary parameters and VO2max , and a 5-min fixed-rate single-stage step test were executed in 112 healthy adults (age 18-75 years). During the step test and subsequent recovery, heart rate was monitored continuously. By linear regression analysis, an equation to predict VO2max from the step test was formulated. This equation was assessed for level of agreement by displaying Bland-Altman plots and calculation of intraclass correlations with measured VO2max . Validity further was assessed by employing a Jackknife procedure. The linear regression analysis generated the following equation to predict VO2max (l min(-1) ) from the step test: 0·054(BMI)+0·612(gender)+3·359(body height in m)+0·019(fitness index)-0·012(HRmax)-0·011(age)-3·475. This equation explained 78% of the variance in measured VO2max (F = 66·15, P<0·001). The level of agreement and intraclass correlation was high (ICC = 0·94, P<0·001) between measured and predicted VO2max . From this study, a valid fixed-rate single-stage step test equation has been developed to estimate VO2max in healthy adults. This tool could be employed by healthcare professionals with limited access to ergospirometry. © 2015 Scandinavian Society of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Natural History of IgE-Mediated Food Allergy: Can Skin Prick Tests and Serum-Specific IgE Predict the Resolution of Food Allergy?

PubMed Central

Peters, Rachel L.; Gurrin, Lyle C.; Dharmage, Shyamali C.; Koplin, Jennifer J.; Allen, Katrina J.

2013-01-01

IgE-mediated food allergy is a transient condition for some children, however there are few indices to predict when and in whom food allergy will resolve. Skin prick test (SPT) and serum-specific IgE levels (sIgE) are usually monitored in the management of food allergy and are used to predict the development of tolerance or persistence of food allergy. The aim of this article is to review the published literature that investigated the predictive value of SPT and sIgE in development of tolerance in children with a previous diagnosis of peanut, egg and milk allergy. A systematic search identified twenty-six studies, of which most reported SPT or sIgE thresholds which predicted persistent or resolved allergy. However, results were inconsistent between studies. Previous research was hampered by several limitations including the absence of gold standard test to diagnose food allergy or tolerance, biased samples in retrospective audits and lack of systematic protocols for triggering re-challenges. There is a need for population-based, prospective studies that use the gold standard oral food challenge (OFC) to diagnose food allergy at baseline and follow-up to develop SPT and sIgE thresholds that predict the course of food allergy. PMID:24132133

Quality of Education Predicts Performance on the Wide Range Achievement Test-4th Edition Word Reading Subtest

PubMed Central

Sayegh, Philip; Arentoft, Alyssa; Thaler, Nicholas S.; Dean, Andy C.; Thames, April D.

2014-01-01

The current study examined whether self-rated education quality predicts Wide Range Achievement Test-4th Edition (WRAT-4) Word Reading subtest and neurocognitive performance, and aimed to establish this subtest's construct validity as an educational quality measure. In a community-based adult sample (N = 106), we tested whether education quality both increased the prediction of Word Reading scores beyond demographic variables and predicted global neurocognitive functioning after adjusting for WRAT-4. As expected, race/ethnicity and education predicted WRAT-4 reading performance. Hierarchical regression revealed that when including education quality, the amount of WRAT-4's explained variance increased significantly, with race/ethnicity and both education quality and years as significant predictors. Finally, WRAT-4 scores, but not education quality, predicted neurocognitive performance. Results support WRAT-4 Word Reading as a valid proxy measure for education quality and a key predictor of neurocognitive performance. Future research should examine these findings in larger, more diverse samples to determine their robust nature. PMID:25404004

Differential Predictive Validity of a Preschool Battery Across Race and Sex.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Reynolds, Cecil R.

Determination of the fairness of preschool tests for use with children of varying cultural backgrounds is the major objective of this study. The predictive validity of a battery of preschool tests, chosen to represent the core areas of preschool assessment, across race and sex, was evaluated. Validity of the battery was examined over a 12-month…

Predicting Institutional Aggression in Offenders with Intellectual Disabilities Using the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pouls, Claudia; Jeandarme, Inge

2018-01-01

Background: One of the most extensively tested risk assessment instruments in offenders with an intellectual disability (OIDs) is the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG). The purpose of this prospective study was to test the ability of this instrument to predict institutional aggression in OIDs. Method: VRAG scores were collected for 52 OIDs, and…

Development of Multiple Regression Equations To Predict Fourth Graders' Achievement in Reading and Selected Content Areas.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hafner, Lawrence E.

A study developed a multiple regression prediction equation for each of six selected achievement variables in a popular standardized test of achievement. Subjects, 42 fourth-grade pupils randomly selected across several classes in a large elementary school in a north Florida city, were administered several standardized tests to determine predictor…

End of Course Grades and Standardized Test Scores: Are Grades Predictive of Student Achievement?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ricketts, Christine R.

2010-01-01

This study examined the extent to which end-of-course grades are predictive of Virginia Standards of Learning test scores in nine high school content areas. It also analyzed the impact of the variables school cluster attended, gender, ethnicity, disability status, Limited English Proficiency status, and socioeconomic status on the relationship…

Predicting the Geometry Knowledge of Pre-Service Elementary Teachers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Duatepe Aksu, Asuman

2013-01-01

In this study, the aim was to examine the factors that predict the geometry knowledge of pre-service elementary teachers. Data was collected on 387 pre-service elementary teachers from four universities by using a geometry knowledge test, the van Hiele geometric thinking level test, a geometry self efficacy scale and a geometry attitude scale.…

Predicting Success Using HESI A2 Entrance Tests in an Associate Degree Nursing Program

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bodman, Susan

2012-01-01

A challenge presented to nurse educators is retention of nursing students. This has led nursing faculty to review admission requirements and question how well entrance tests predict success in Associate Degree Nursing Programs. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between the HESI Admission Assessment Exam (HESI A2) and…

Cognitive Ability and Personality Variables as Predictors of School Grades and Test Scores in Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hofer, Manfred; Kuhnle, Claudia; Kilian, Britta; Fries, Stefan

2012-01-01

The predictive power of cognitive ability and self-control strength for self-reported grades and an achievement test were studied. It was expected that the variables use of time structure, academic procrastination, and motivational interference during learning further aid in predicting students' achievement because they are operative in situations…

Developing Local Oral Reading Fluency Cut Scores for Predicting High-Stakes Test Performance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Grapin, Sally L.; Kranzler, John H.; Waldron, Nancy; Joyce-Beaulieu, Diana; Algina, James

2017-01-01

This study evaluated the classification accuracy of a second grade oral reading fluency curriculum-based measure (R-CBM) in predicting third grade state test performance. It also compared the long-term classification accuracy of local and publisher-recommended R-CBM cut scores. Participants were 266 students who were divided into a calibration…

Empirical Approaches to Measuring the Intelligibility of Different Varieties of English in Predicting Listener Comprehension

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kang, Okim; Thomson, Ron I.; Moran, Meghan

2018-01-01

This study compared five research-based intelligibility measures as they were applied to six varieties of English. The objective was to determine which approach to measuring intelligibility would be most reliable for predicting listener comprehension, as measured through a listening comprehension test similar to the Test of English as a Foreign…

Crosslanguage Lexical Activation: A Test of the Revised Hierarchical and Morphological Decomposition Models in Arabic-English Bilinguals

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Qasem, Mousa; Foote, Rebecca

2010-01-01

This study tested the predictions of the revised hierarchical (RHM) and morphological decomposition (MDM) models with Arabic-English bilinguals. The RHM (Kroll & Stewart, 1994) predicts that the amount of activation of first language translation equivalents is negatively correlated with second language (L2) proficiency. The MDM (Frost, Forster, &…

Does exposure to simulated patient cases improve accuracy of clinicians' predictive value estimates of diagnostic test results? A within-subjects experiment at St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada.

PubMed

Armstrong, Bonnie; Spaniol, Julia; Persaud, Nav

2018-02-13

Clinicians often overestimate the probability of a disease given a positive test result (positive predictive value; PPV) and the probability of no disease given a negative test result (negative predictive value; NPV). The purpose of this study was to investigate whether experiencing simulated patient cases (ie, an 'experience format') would promote more accurate PPV and NPV estimates compared with a numerical format. Participants were presented with information about three diagnostic tests for the same fictitious disease and were asked to estimate the PPV and NPV of each test. Tests varied with respect to sensitivity and specificity. Information about each test was presented once in the numerical format and once in the experience format. The study used a 2 (format: numerical vs experience) × 3 (diagnostic test: gold standard vs low sensitivity vs low specificity) within-subjects design. The study was completed online, via Qualtrics (Provo, Utah, USA). 50 physicians (12 clinicians and 38 residents) from the Department of Family and Community Medicine at St Michael's Hospital in Toronto, Canada, completed the study. All participants had completed at least 1 year of residency. Estimation accuracy was quantified by the mean absolute error (MAE; absolute difference between estimate and true predictive value). PPV estimation errors were larger in the numerical format (MAE=32.6%, 95% CI 26.8% to 38.4%) compared with the experience format (MAE=15.9%, 95% CI 11.8% to 20.0%, d =0.697, P<0.001). Likewise, NPV estimation errors were larger in the numerical format (MAE=24.4%, 95% CI 14.5% to 34.3%) than in the experience format (MAE=11.0%, 95% CI 6.5% to 15.5%, d =0.303, P=0.015). Exposure to simulated patient cases promotes accurate estimation of predictive values in clinicians. This finding carries implications for diagnostic training and practice. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Predicting in-patient falls in a geriatric clinic: a clinical study combining assessment data and simple sensory gait measurements.

PubMed

Marschollek, M; Nemitz, G; Gietzelt, M; Wolf, K H; Meyer Zu Schwabedissen, H; Haux, R

2009-08-01

Falls are among the predominant causes for morbidity and mortality in elderly persons and occur most often in geriatric clinics. Despite several studies that have identified parameters associated with elderly patients' fall risk, prediction models -- e.g., based on geriatric assessment data -- are currently not used on a regular basis. Furthermore, technical aids to objectively assess mobility-associated parameters are currently not used. To assess group differences in clinical as well as common geriatric assessment data and sensory gait measurements between fallers and non-fallers in a geriatric sample, and to derive and compare two prediction models based on assessment data alone (model #1) and added sensory measurement data (model #2). For a sample of n=110 geriatric in-patients (81 women, 29 men) the following fall risk-associated assessments were performed: Timed 'Up & Go' (TUG) test, STRATIFY score and Barthel index. During the TUG test the subjects wore a triaxial accelerometer, and sensory gait parameters were extracted from the data recorded. Group differences between fallers (n=26) and non-fallers (n=84) were compared using Student's t-test. Two classification tree prediction models were computed and compared. Significant differences between the two groups were found for the following parameters: time to complete the TUG test, transfer item (Barthel), recent falls (STRATIFY), pelvic sway while walking and step length. Prediction model #1 (using common assessment data only) showed a sensitivity of 38.5% and a specificity of 97.6%, prediction model #2 (assessment data plus sensory gait parameters) performed with 57.7% and 100%, respectively. Significant differences between fallers and non-fallers among geriatric in-patients can be detected for several assessment subscores as well as parameters recorded by simple accelerometric measurements during a common mobility test. Existing geriatric assessment data may be used for falls prediction on a regular basis. Adding sensory data improves the specificity of our test markedly.

Predicting multi-wall structural response to hypervelocity impact using the hull code

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schonberg, William P.

1993-01-01

Previously, multi-wall structures have been analyzed extensively, primarily through experiment, as a means of increasing the meteoroid/space debris impact protection of spacecraft. As structural configurations become more varied, the number of tests required to characterize their response increases dramatically. As an alternative to experimental testing, numerical modeling of high-speed impact phenomena is often being used to predict the response of a variety of structural systems under different impact loading conditions. The results of comparing experimental tests to Hull Hydrodynamic Computer Code predictions are reported. Also, the results of a numerical parametric study of multi-wall structural response to hypervelocity cylindrical projectile impact are presented.

Meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies accounting for disease prevalence: alternative parameterizations and model selection.

PubMed

Chu, Haitao; Nie, Lei; Cole, Stephen R; Poole, Charles

2009-08-15

In a meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies, the sensitivities and specificities of a diagnostic test may depend on the disease prevalence since the severity and definition of disease may differ from study to study due to the design and the population considered. In this paper, we extend the bivariate nonlinear random effects model on sensitivities and specificities to jointly model the disease prevalence, sensitivities and specificities using trivariate nonlinear random-effects models. Furthermore, as an alternative parameterization, we also propose jointly modeling the test prevalence and the predictive values, which reflect the clinical utility of a diagnostic test. These models allow investigators to study the complex relationship among the disease prevalence, sensitivities and specificities; or among test prevalence and the predictive values, which can reveal hidden information about test performance. We illustrate the proposed two approaches by reanalyzing the data from a meta-analysis of radiological evaluation of lymph node metastases in patients with cervical cancer and a simulation study. The latter illustrates the importance of carefully choosing an appropriate normality assumption for the disease prevalence, sensitivities and specificities, or the test prevalence and the predictive values. In practice, it is recommended to use model selection techniques to identify a best-fitting model for making statistical inference. In summary, the proposed trivariate random effects models are novel and can be very useful in practice for meta-analysis of diagnostic accuracy studies. Copyright 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Predicting Energy Consumption for Potential Effective Use in Hybrid Vehicle Powertrain Management Using Driver Prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Magnuson, Brian

A proof-of-concept software-in-the-loop study is performed to assess the accuracy of predicted net and charge-gaining energy consumption for potential effective use in optimizing powertrain management of hybrid vehicles. With promising results of improving fuel efficiency of a thermostatic control strategy for a series, plug-ing, hybrid-electric vehicle by 8.24%, the route and speed prediction machine learning algorithms are redesigned and implemented for real- world testing in a stand-alone C++ code-base to ingest map data, learn and predict driver habits, and store driver data for fast startup and shutdown of the controller or computer used to execute the compiled algorithm. Speed prediction is performed using a multi-layer, multi-input, multi- output neural network using feed-forward prediction and gradient descent through back- propagation training. Route prediction utilizes a Hidden Markov Model with a recurrent forward algorithm for prediction and multi-dimensional hash maps to store state and state distribution constraining associations between atomic road segments and end destinations. Predicted energy is calculated using the predicted time-series speed and elevation profile over the predicted route and the road-load equation. Testing of the code-base is performed over a known road network spanning 24x35 blocks on the south hill of Spokane, Washington. A large set of training routes are traversed once to add randomness to the route prediction algorithm, and a subset of the training routes, testing routes, are traversed to assess the accuracy of the net and charge-gaining predicted energy consumption. Each test route is traveled a random number of times with varying speed conditions from traffic and pedestrians to add randomness to speed prediction. Prediction data is stored and analyzed in a post process Matlab script. The aggregated results and analysis of all traversals of all test routes reflect the performance of the Driver Prediction algorithm. The error of average energy gained through charge-gaining events is 31.3% and the error of average net energy consumed is 27.3%. The average delta and average standard deviation of the delta of predicted energy gained through charge-gaining events is 0.639 and 0.601 Wh respectively for individual time-series calculations. Similarly, the average delta and average standard deviation of the delta of the predicted net energy consumed is 0.567 and 0.580 Wh respectively for individual time-series calculations. The average delta and standard deviation of the delta of the predicted speed is 1.60 and 1.15 respectively also for the individual time-series measurements. The percentage of accuracy of route prediction is 91%. Overall, test routes are traversed 151 times for a total test distance of 276.4 km.

Selection of optimal sensors for predicting performance of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mao, Lei; Jackson, Lisa

2016-10-01

In this paper, sensor selection algorithms are investigated based on a sensitivity analysis, and the capability of optimal sensors in predicting PEM fuel cell performance is also studied using test data. The fuel cell model is developed for generating the sensitivity matrix relating sensor measurements and fuel cell health parameters. From the sensitivity matrix, two sensor selection approaches, including the largest gap method, and exhaustive brute force searching technique, are applied to find the optimal sensors providing reliable predictions. Based on the results, a sensor selection approach considering both sensor sensitivity and noise resistance is proposed to find the optimal sensor set with minimum size. Furthermore, the performance of the optimal sensor set is studied to predict fuel cell performance using test data from a PEM fuel cell system. Results demonstrate that with optimal sensors, the performance of PEM fuel cell can be predicted with good quality.

Prediction of Patient-Controlled Analgesic Consumption: A Multimodel Regression Tree Approach.

PubMed

Hu, Yuh-Jyh; Ku, Tien-Hsiung; Yang, Yu-Hung; Shen, Jia-Ying

2018-01-01

Several factors contribute to individual variability in postoperative pain, therefore, individuals consume postoperative analgesics at different rates. Although many statistical studies have analyzed postoperative pain and analgesic consumption, most have identified only the correlation and have not subjected the statistical model to further tests in order to evaluate its predictive accuracy. In this study involving 3052 patients, a multistrategy computational approach was developed for analgesic consumption prediction. This approach uses data on patient-controlled analgesia demand behavior over time and combines clustering, classification, and regression to mitigate the limitations of current statistical models. Cross-validation results indicated that the proposed approach significantly outperforms various existing regression methods. Moreover, a comparison between the predictions by anesthesiologists and medical specialists and those of the computational approach for an independent test data set of 60 patients further evidenced the superiority of the computational approach in predicting analgesic consumption because it produced markedly lower root mean squared errors.

Do Maximal Roller Skiing Speed and Double Poling Performance Predict Youth Cross-Country Skiing Performance?

PubMed Central

Stöggl, Roland; Müller, Erich; Stöggl, Thomas

2017-01-01

The aims of the current study were to analyze whether specific roller skiing tests and cycle length are determinants of youth cross-country (XC) skiing performance, and to evaluate sex specific differences by applying non-invasive diagnostics. Forty-nine young XC skiers (33 boys; 13.8 ± 0.6 yrs and 16 girls; 13.4 ± 0.9 yrs) performed roller skiing tests consisting of both shorter (50 m) and longer durations (575 m). Test results were correlated with on snow XC skiing performance (PXC) based on 3 skating and 3 classical distance competitions (3 to 6 km). The main findings of the current study were: 1) Anthropometrics and maturity status were related to boys’, but not to girls’ PXC; 2) Significant moderate to acceptable correlations between girls’ and boys’ short duration maximal roller skiing speed (double poling, V2 skating, leg skating) and PXC were found; 3) Boys’ PXC was best predicted by double poling test performance on flat and uphill, while girls’ performance was mainly predicted by uphill double poling test performance; 4) When controlling for maturity offset, boys’ PXC was still highly associated with the roller skiing tests. The use of simple non-invasive roller skiing tests for determination of PXC represents practicable support for ski clubs, schools or skiing federations in the guidance and evaluation of young talent. Key points Double poling tests on flat and uphill terrain and short duration maximal speed tests were the highest cross-country skiing predicting factors in girls and boys. Only in the boys there was an effect of maturation on the performance outcomes, pointing out that girls seem to be almost fully matured at the age of 13 in contrast to the boys. Roller skiing tests over short distance (50-m) and longer distance 225 m and 350 m are stable and valid measures and suitable for performance prediction in youth cross-country skiers. PMID:28912656

The Andersen aerobic fitness test: New peak oxygen consumption prediction equations in 10 and 16-year olds.

PubMed

Aadland, E; Andersen, L B; Lerum, Ø; Resaland, G K

2018-03-01

Measurement of aerobic fitness by determining peak oxygen consumption (VO 2peak ) is often not feasible in children and adolescents, thus field tests such as the Andersen test are required in many settings, for example in most school-based studies. This study provides cross-validated prediction equations for VO 2peak based on the Andersen test in 10 and 16-year-old children. We included 235 children (n = 113 10-year olds and 122 16-year olds) who performed the Andersen test and a progressive treadmill test to exhaustion to determine VO 2peak . Joint and sex-specific prediction equations were derived and tested in 20 random samples. Performance in terms of systematic (bias) and random error (limits of agreement) was evaluated by means of Bland-Altman plots. Bias varied from -4.28 to 5.25 mL/kg/min across testing datasets, sex, and the 2 age groups. Sex-specific equations (mean bias -0.42 to 0.16 mL/kg/min) performed somewhat better than joint equations (-1.07 to 0.84 mL/kg/min). Limits of agreement were substantial across all datasets, sex, and both age groups, but were slightly lower in 16-year olds (5.84-13.29 mL/kg/min) compared to 10-year olds (9.60-15.15 mL/kg/min). We suggest the presented equations can be used to predict VO 2peak from the Andersen test performance in children and adolescents on a group level. Although the Andersen test appears to be a good measure of aerobic fitness, researchers should interpret cross-sectional individual-level predictions of VO 2peak with caution due to large random measurement errors. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Genetic Counselling for Predictive Testing in Huntington's Disease in One Centre since 1993. Gender-Specific Aspects of Decision-Making.

PubMed

Arning, Larissa; Witt, Constantin N; Epplen, Jörg T; Stemmler, Susanne

2015-01-01

The discovery of the mutation causing Huntington's disease (HD) in 1993 allowed direct mutation analysis and predictive testing to identify currently unaffected carriers with a sensitivity and specificity of virtually 100%. The present study was designed to comprehensively profile the participants who sought predictive testing for HD between 1993 and 2009 in our Huntington centre. Using a retrospective design, we analysed the written documentation of the counselling sessions for all referrals for predictive mutation testing in this time span. Six hundred sixty-three individuals at risk for HD requested predictive testing. Roughly half (n = 333) completed the protocol and received their test result. In general our findings are in accordance with other reports: most participants share an a priori risk of 50% (91.1%); more females request testing (58.5%); and those who ask for the result are mostly in their 30 s (mean = 35.1 years). Of those at 50% or 25% prior risks, 47.4% and 22.7%, respectively, tested positive in accordance with the respective risk of inheriting HD. Generally, more participants with an affected mother than father sought genetic testing (52.5% versus 47.5%). Interestingly, this difference was especially evident in the group of females who finally withdrew from testing (59.1%, p = 0.040). Men, in particular those who decided in favour of the test, were more often accompanied by their partner in the pre-test counselling session than vice versa (67.9% versus 44.7%, p = 0.003). On the other hand, significantly more men who were being tested did not have a companion in the pre-test session as compared with men who decided against the test (40.0% versus 25.7%, p = 0.012). During the first four years of predictive testing (1993–1996) more participants completed the protocol and received their test result as in later years. Yet, in this early time span significantly fewer females finally decided in favour of the test (48.4%, p = 0.005). These findings are discussed longitudinally and in the context of the experience in other centres. We present new gender-specific aspects of decision-making for predictive HD tests.

Femoral neck shaft angle width is associated with hip-fracture risk in males but not independently of femoral neck bone density.

PubMed

Ripamonti, C; Lisi, L; Avella, M

2014-05-01

To investigate the specificity of the neck shaft angle (NSA) to predict hip fracture in males. We consecutively studied 228 males without fracture and 38 with hip fracture. A further 49 males with spine fracture were studied to evaluate the specificity of NSA for hip-fracture prediction. Femoral neck (FN) bone mineral density (FN-BMD), NSA, hip axis length and FN diameter (FND) were measured in each subject by dual X-ray absorptiometry. Between-mean differences in the studied variables were tested by the unpaired t-test. The ability of NSA to predict hip fracture was tested by logistic regression. Compared with controls, FN-BMD (p < 0.01) was significantly lower in both groups of males with fractures, whereas FND (p < 0.01) and NSA (p = 0.05) were higher only in the hip-fracture group. A significant inverse correlation (p < 0.01) was found between NSA and FN-BMD. By age-, height- and weight-corrected logistic regression, none of the tested geometric parameters, separately considered from FN-BMD, entered the best model to predict spine fracture, whereas NSA (p < 0.03) predicted hip fracture together with age (p < 0.001). When forced into the regression, FN-BMD (p < 0.001) became the only fracture predictor to enter the best model to predict both fracture types. NSA is associated with hip-fracture risk in males but is not independent of FN-BMD. The lack of ability of NSA to predict hip fracture in males independent of FN-BMD should depend on its inverse correlation with FN-BMD by capturing, as the strongest fracture predictor, some of the effects of NSA on the hip fracture. Conversely, NSA in females does not correlate with FN-BMD but independently predicts hip fractures.

Femoral neck shaft angle width is associated with hip-fracture risk in males but not independently of femoral neck bone density

PubMed Central

Lisi, L; Avella, M

2014-01-01

Objective: To investigate the specificity of the neck shaft angle (NSA) to predict hip fracture in males. Methods: We consecutively studied 228 males without fracture and 38 with hip fracture. A further 49 males with spine fracture were studied to evaluate the specificity of NSA for hip-fracture prediction. Femoral neck (FN) bone mineral density (FN-BMD), NSA, hip axis length and FN diameter (FND) were measured in each subject by dual X-ray absorptiometry. Between-mean differences in the studied variables were tested by the unpaired t-test. The ability of NSA to predict hip fracture was tested by logistic regression. Results: Compared with controls, FN-BMD (p < 0.01) was significantly lower in both groups of males with fractures, whereas FND (p < 0.01) and NSA (p = 0.05) were higher only in the hip-fracture group. A significant inverse correlation (p < 0.01) was found between NSA and FN-BMD. By age-, height- and weight-corrected logistic regression, none of the tested geometric parameters, separately considered from FN-BMD, entered the best model to predict spine fracture, whereas NSA (p < 0.03) predicted hip fracture together with age (p < 0.001). When forced into the regression, FN-BMD (p < 0.001) became the only fracture predictor to enter the best model to predict both fracture types. Conclusion: NSA is associated with hip-fracture risk in males but is not independent of FN-BMD. Advances in knowledge: The lack of ability of NSA to predict hip fracture in males independent of FN-BMD should depend on its inverse correlation with FN-BMD by capturing, as the strongest fracture predictor, some of the effects of NSA on the hip fracture. Conversely, NSA in females does not correlate with FN-BMD but independently predicts hip fractures. PMID:24678889

The Predictive Impact of Biological and Sociocultural Factors on Executive Processing: The Role of Age, Education, and Frequency of Reading and Writing Habits.

PubMed

Cotrena, Charles; Branco, Laura D; Cardoso, Caroline O; Wong, Cristina Elizabeth I; Fonseca, Rochele P

2016-01-01

Although the impact of education and age on executive functions (EF) has been widely studied, the influence of daily cognitive stimulation on EF has not been sufficiently investigated. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to evaluate whether the age, education, and frequency of reading and writing habits (FRWH) of healthy adults could predict their performance on measures of inhibition and cognitive flexibility. Inhibition speed, inhibitory control, and set shifting were assessed using speed, accuracy, and discrepancy scores on the Trail-Making Test (TMT) and Hayling Test. Demographic characteristics and the FRWH were assessed using specialized questionnaires. Regression analyses showed that age and the FRWH predicted speed and accuracy on the TMT. The FRWH predicted both speed and accuracy on the Hayling Test, for which speed and accuracy scores were also partly explained by age and education, respectively. Surprisingly, only the FRWH was associated with Hayling Test discrepancy scores, considered one of the purest EF measures. This highlights the importance of regular cognitive stimulation over the number of years of formal education on EF tasks. Further studies are required to investigate the role of the FRWH so as to better comprehend its relationship with EF and general cognition.

Fan Noise Prediction with Applications to Aircraft System Noise Assessment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nark, Douglas M.; Envia, Edmane; Burley, Casey L.

2009-01-01

This paper describes an assessment of current fan noise prediction tools by comparing measured and predicted sideline acoustic levels from a benchmark fan noise wind tunnel test. Specifically, an empirical method and newly developed coupled computational approach are utilized to predict aft fan noise for a benchmark test configuration. Comparisons with sideline noise measurements are performed to assess the relative merits of the two approaches. The study identifies issues entailed in coupling the source and propagation codes, as well as provides insight into the capabilities of the tools in predicting the fan noise source and subsequent propagation and radiation. In contrast to the empirical method, the new coupled computational approach provides the ability to investigate acoustic near-field effects. The potential benefits/costs of these new methods are also compared with the existing capabilities in a current aircraft noise system prediction tool. The knowledge gained in this work provides a basis for improved fan source specification in overall aircraft system noise studies.

Ground shake test of the UH-60A helicopter airframe and comparison with NASTRAN finite element model predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Howland, G. R.; Durno, J. A.; Twomey, W. J.

1990-01-01

Sikorsky Aircraft, together with the other major helicopter airframe manufacturers, is engaged in a study to improve the use of finite element analysis to predict the dynamic behavior of helicopter airframes, under a rotorcraft structural dynamics program called DAMVIBS (Design Analysis Methods for VIBrationS), sponsored by the NASA-Langley. The test plan and test results are presented for a shake test of the UH-60A BLACK HAWK helicopter. A comparison is also presented of test results with results obtained from analysis using a NASTRAN finite element model.

Emotional facial expressions differentially influence predictions and performance for face recognition.

PubMed

Nomi, Jason S; Rhodes, Matthew G; Cleary, Anne M

2013-01-01

This study examined how participants' predictions of future memory performance are influenced by emotional facial expressions. Participants made judgements of learning (JOLs) predicting the likelihood that they would correctly identify a face displaying a happy, angry, or neutral emotional expression in a future two-alternative forced-choice recognition test of identity (i.e., recognition that a person's face was seen before). JOLs were higher for studied faces with happy and angry emotional expressions than for neutral faces. However, neutral test faces with studied neutral expressions had significantly higher identity recognition rates than neutral test faces studied with happy or angry expressions. Thus, these data are the first to demonstrate that people believe happy and angry emotional expressions will lead to better identity recognition in the future relative to neutral expressions. This occurred despite the fact that neutral expressions elicited better identity recognition than happy and angry expressions. These findings contribute to the growing literature examining the interaction of cognition and emotion.

Case-finding for cognitive impairment among people with Type 2 diabetes in primary care using the Test Your Memory and Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination questionnaires: the Cog-ID study.

PubMed

Koekkoek, P S; Janssen, J; Kooistra, M; Biesbroek, J M; Groeneveld, O; van den Berg, E; Kappelle, L J; Biessels, G J; Rutten, G E H M

2016-06-01

To evaluate two cognitive tests for case-finding for cognitive impairment in older patients with Type 2 diabetes. Of 1243 invited patients with Type 2 diabetes, aged ≥70 years, 228 participated in a prospective cohort study. Exclusion criteria were: diagnosis of dementia; previous investigation at a memory clinic; and inability to write or read. Patients first filled out two self-administered cognitive tests (Test Your Memory and Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination). Secondly, a general practitioner, blinded to Test Your Memory and Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination scores, performed a structured evaluation using the Mini-Mental State Examination. Subsequently, patients suspected of cognitive impairment (on either the cognitive tests or general practitioner evaluation) and a random sample of 30% of patients not suspected of cognitive impairment were evaluated at a memory clinic. Diagnostic accuracy and area under the curve were determined for the Test Your Memory, Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination and general practitioner evaluation compared with a memory clinic evaluation to detect cognitive impairment (mild cognitive impairment or dementia). A total of 44 participants were diagnosed with cognitive impairment. The Test Your Memory and Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination questionnaires had negative predictive values of 81 and 85%, respectively. Positive predictive values were 39 and 40%, respectively. The general practitioner evaluation had a negative predictive value of 83% and positive predictive value of 64%. The area under the curve was ~0.70 for all tests. Both the tests evaluated in the present study can easily be used in case-finding strategies for cognitive impairment in patients with Type 2 diabetes in primary care. The Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination had the best diagnostic accuracy and therefore we would have a slight preference for this test. Applying the Self-Administered Gerocognitive Examination would considerably reduce the number of patients in whom the general practitioner needs to evaluate cognitive functioning to tailor diabetes treatment. © 2015 Diabetes UK.

Limitations of predicting in vivo biostability of multiphase polyurethane elastomers using temperature-accelerated degradation testing.

PubMed

Padsalgikar, Ajay; Cosgriff-Hernandez, Elizabeth; Gallagher, Genevieve; Touchet, Tyler; Iacob, Ciprian; Mellin, Lisa; Norlin-Weissenrieder, Anna; Runt, James

2015-01-01

Polyurethane biostability has been the subject of intense research since the failure of polyether polyurethane pacemaker leads in the 1980s. Accelerated in vitro testing has been used to isolate degradation mechanisms and predict clinical performance of biomaterials. However, validation that in vitro methods reproduce in vivo degradation is critical to the selection of appropriate tests. High temperature has been proposed as a method to accelerate degradation. However, correlation of such data to in vivo performance is poor for polyurethanes due to the impact of temperature on microstructure. In this study, we characterize the lack of correlation between hydrolytic degradation predicted using a high temperature aging model of a polydimethylsiloxane-based polyurethane and its in vivo performance. Most notably, the predicted molecular weight and tensile property changes from the accelerated aging study did not correlate with clinical explants subjected to human biological stresses in real time through 5 years. Further, DMTA, ATR-FTIR, and SAXS experiments on samples aged for 2 weeks in PBS indicated greater phase separation in samples aged at 85°C compared to those aged at 37°C and unaged controls. These results confirm that microstructural changes occur at high temperatures that do not occur at in vivo temperatures. In addition, water absorption studies demonstrated that water saturation levels increased significantly with temperature. This study highlights that the multiphase morphology of polyurethane precludes the use of temperature accelerated biodegradation for the prediction of clinical performance and provides critical information in designing appropriate in vitro tests for this class of materials. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The National Football League (NFL) combine: does normalized data better predict performance in the NFL draft?

PubMed

Robbins, Daniel W

2010-11-01

The objective of this study was to investigate the predictive ability of National Football League (NFL) combine physical test data to predict draft order over the years 2005-2009. The NFL combine provides a setting in which NFL personnel can evaluate top draft prospects. The predictive ability of combine data in its raw form and when normalized in both a ratio and allometric manner was examined for 17 positions. Data from 8 combine physical performance tests were correlated with draft order to determine the direction and strength of relationship between the various combine measures and draft order. Players invited to the combine and subsequently drafted in the same year (n = 1,155) were included in the study. The primary finding was that performance in the combine physical test battery, whether normalized or not, has little association with draft success. In terms of predicting draft order from outcomes of the 8 tests making up the combine battery, normalized data provided no advantage over raw data. Of the 8 performance measures investigated, straight sprint time and jumping ability seem to hold the most weight with NFL personnel responsible for draft decisions. The NFL should consider revising the combine test battery to reflect the physical characteristics it deems important. It may be that NFL teams are more interested in attributes other than the purely physical traits reflected in the combine test battery. Players with aspirations of entering the NFL may be well advised to develop mental and technical skills in addition to developing the physical characteristics necessary to optimize performance.

Does rational selection of training and test sets improve the outcome of QSAR modeling?

PubMed

Martin, Todd M; Harten, Paul; Young, Douglas M; Muratov, Eugene N; Golbraikh, Alexander; Zhu, Hao; Tropsha, Alexander

2012-10-22

Prior to using a quantitative structure activity relationship (QSAR) model for external predictions, its predictive power should be established and validated. In the absence of a true external data set, the best way to validate the predictive ability of a model is to perform its statistical external validation. In statistical external validation, the overall data set is divided into training and test sets. Commonly, this splitting is performed using random division. Rational splitting methods can divide data sets into training and test sets in an intelligent fashion. The purpose of this study was to determine whether rational division methods lead to more predictive models compared to random division. A special data splitting procedure was used to facilitate the comparison between random and rational division methods. For each toxicity end point, the overall data set was divided into a modeling set (80% of the overall set) and an external evaluation set (20% of the overall set) using random division. The modeling set was then subdivided into a training set (80% of the modeling set) and a test set (20% of the modeling set) using rational division methods and by using random division. The Kennard-Stone, minimal test set dissimilarity, and sphere exclusion algorithms were used as the rational division methods. The hierarchical clustering, random forest, and k-nearest neighbor (kNN) methods were used to develop QSAR models based on the training sets. For kNN QSAR, multiple training and test sets were generated, and multiple QSAR models were built. The results of this study indicate that models based on rational division methods generate better statistical results for the test sets than models based on random division, but the predictive power of both types of models are comparable.

A Model for Predicting Student Performance on High-Stakes Assessment

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dammann, Matthew Walter

2010-01-01

This research study examined the use of student achievement on reading and math state assessments to predict success on the science state assessment. Multiple regression analysis was utilized to test the prediction for all students in grades 5 and 8 in a mid-Atlantic state. The prediction model developed from the analysis explored the combined…

Status and plans for the ANOPP/HSR prediction system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nolan, Sandra K.

1992-01-01

ANOPP is a comprehensive prediction system which was developed and validated by NASA. Because ANOPP is a system prediction program, it allows aerospace industry researchers to create trade-off studies with a variety of aircraft noise problems. The extensive validation of ANOPP allows the program results to be used as a benchmark for testing other prediction codes.

Predicting adaptation to presymptomatic DNA testing for late onset disorders: who will experience distress? Rotterdam Leiden Genetics Workgroup.

PubMed Central

DudokdeWit, A C; Tibben, A; Duivenvoorden, H J; Niermeijer, M F; Passchier, J

1998-01-01

The first comparative study on predicting post-test distress (conceptualised by intrusion and avoidance, measured with the Impact of Event Scale) after presymptomatic genetic testing for Huntington's disease (HD, n=25), cancer syndromes (familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP, n=23)), and hereditary breast and ovarian cancer (HBOC, n=10) is reported. The variables with the highest predictive potential of post-test distress are presented. Participants who were depressed before the test were more distressed after testing, but we found that those who were anxious before the test were less distressed, that is, had less intrusive thoughts post-test. Other factors associated with a higher level of post-test intrusion were gender (being a woman), having children, and pre-test intrusion. Religion and being at risk for HBOC were associated with less post-test intrusion. Participants who showed avoidance behaviour before the test and those who had many people available for support showed more avoidance behaviour post-test. The test result did not additionally contribute to post-test distress. The prima facie simple notion that the test result, as such, determines the distress experienced seems to be a misrepresentation of the complex reality. PMID:9733033

Can We Predict Technical Aptitude?: A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Louridas, Marisa; Szasz, Peter; de Montbrun, Sandra; Harris, Kenneth A; Grantcharov, Teodor P

2016-04-01

To identify background characteristics and cognitive tests that may predict surgical trainees' future technical performance, and therefore be used to supplement existing surgical residency selection criteria. Assessment of technical skills is not commonly incorporated as part of the selection process for surgical trainees in North America. Emerging evidence, however, suggests that not all trainees are capable of reaching technical competence. Therefore, incorporating technical aptitude into selection processes may prove useful. A systematic search was carried out of the MEDLINE, PsycINFO, and Embase online databases to identify all studies that assessed associations between surrogate markers of innate technical abilities in surgical trainees, and whether these abilities correlate with technical performance. The quality of each study was evaluated using the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation system. A total of 8035 records were identified. After screening by title, abstract, and full text, 52 studies were included. Very few surrogate markers were found to predict technical performance. Significant associations with technical performance were seen for 1 of 23 participant-reported surrogate markers, 2 of 25 visual spatial tests, and 2 of 19 dexterity tests. The assessment of trainee Basic Performance Resources predicted technical performance in 62% and 75% of participants. To date, no single test has been shown to reliably predict the technical performance of surgical trainees. Strategies that rely on assessing multiple innate abilities, their interaction, and their relationship with technical skill may ultimately be more likely to serve as reliable predictors of future surgical performance.

The value of predicting restriction of fetal growth and compromise of its wellbeing: Systematic quantitative overviews (meta-analysis) of test accuracy literature.

PubMed

Morris, Rachel K; Khan, Khalid S; Coomarasamy, Aravinthan; Robson, Stephen C; Kleijnen, Jos

2007-03-08

Restriction of fetal growth and compromise of fetal wellbeing remain significant causes of perinatal death and childhood disability. At present, there is a lack of scientific consensus about the best strategies for predicting these conditions before birth. Therefore, there is uncertainty about the best management of pregnant women who might have a growth restricted baby. This is likely to be due to a dearth of clear collated information from individual research studies drawn from different sources on this subject. A series of systematic reviews and meta-analyses will be undertaken to determine, among pregnant women, the accuracy of various tests to predict and/or diagnose fetal growth restriction and compromise of fetal wellbeing. We will search Medline, Embase, Cochrane Library, MEDION, citation lists of review articles and eligible primary articles and will contact experts in the field. Independent reviewers will select studies, extract data and assess study quality according to established criteria. Language restrictions will not be applied. Data synthesis will involve meta-analysis (where appropriate), exploration of heterogeneity and publication bias. The project will collate and synthesise the available evidence regarding the value of the tests for predicting restriction of fetal growth and compromise of fetal wellbeing. The systematic overviews will assess the quality of the available evidence, estimate the magnitude of potential benefits, identify those tests with good predictive value and help formulate practice recommendations.

Evaluation of axial pile bearing capacity based on pile driving analyzer (PDA) test using Neural Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Maizir, H.; Suryanita, R.

2018-01-01

A few decades, many methods have been developed to predict and evaluate the bearing capacity of driven piles. The problem of the predicting and assessing the bearing capacity of the pile is very complicated and not yet established, different soil testing and evaluation produce a widely different solution. However, the most important thing is to determine methods used to predict and evaluate the bearing capacity of the pile to the required degree of accuracy and consistency value. Accurate prediction and evaluation of axial bearing capacity depend on some variables, such as the type of soil, diameter, and length of pile, etc. The aims of the study of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) are utilized to obtain more accurate and consistent axial bearing capacity of a driven pile. ANNs can be described as mapping an input to the target output data. The method using the ANN model developed to predict and evaluate the axial bearing capacity of the pile based on the pile driving analyzer (PDA) test data for more than 200 selected data. The results of the predictions obtained by the ANN model and the PDA test were then compared. This research as the neural network models give a right prediction and evaluation of the axial bearing capacity of piles using neural networks.

Comparative study of biodegradability prediction of chemicals using decision trees, functional trees, and logistic regression.

PubMed

Chen, Guangchao; Li, Xuehua; Chen, Jingwen; Zhang, Ya-Nan; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M

2014-12-01

Biodegradation is the principal environmental dissipation process of chemicals. As such, it is a dominant factor determining the persistence and fate of organic chemicals in the environment, and is therefore of critical importance to chemical management and regulation. In the present study, the authors developed in silico methods assessing biodegradability based on a large heterogeneous set of 825 organic compounds, using the techniques of the C4.5 decision tree, the functional inner regression tree, and logistic regression. External validation was subsequently carried out by 2 independent test sets of 777 and 27 chemicals. As a result, the functional inner regression tree exhibited the best predictability with predictive accuracies of 81.5% and 81.0%, respectively, on the training set (825 chemicals) and test set I (777 chemicals). Performance of the developed models on the 2 test sets was subsequently compared with that of the Estimation Program Interface (EPI) Suite Biowin 5 and Biowin 6 models, which also showed a better predictability of the functional inner regression tree model. The model built in the present study exhibits a reasonable predictability compared with existing models while possessing a transparent algorithm. Interpretation of the mechanisms of biodegradation was also carried out based on the models developed. © 2014 SETAC.

Design of a testing strategy using non-animal based test methods: lessons learnt from the ACuteTox project.

PubMed

Kopp-Schneider, Annette; Prieto, Pilar; Kinsner-Ovaskainen, Agnieszka; Stanzel, Sven

2013-06-01

In the framework of toxicology, a testing strategy can be viewed as a series of steps which are taken to come to a final prediction about a characteristic of a compound under study. The testing strategy is performed as a single-step procedure, usually called a test battery, using simultaneously all information collected on different endpoints, or as tiered approach in which a decision tree is followed. Design of a testing strategy involves statistical considerations, such as the development of a statistical prediction model. During the EU FP6 ACuteTox project, several prediction models were proposed on the basis of statistical classification algorithms which we illustrate here. The final choice of testing strategies was not based on statistical considerations alone. However, without thorough statistical evaluations a testing strategy cannot be identified. We present here a number of observations made from the statistical viewpoint which relate to the development of testing strategies. The points we make were derived from problems we had to deal with during the evaluation of this large research project. A central issue during the development of a prediction model is the danger of overfitting. Procedures are presented to deal with this challenge. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the fathead minnow fish embryo toxicity test: Optimizing embryo production and assessing the utility of additional test endpoints.

PubMed

Roush, Kyle S; Krzykwa, Julie C; Malmquist, Jacob A; Stephens, Dane A; Sellin Jeffries, Marlo K

2018-05-30

The fathead minnow fish embryo toxicity (FET) test has been identified as a potential alternative to toxicity test methods that utilize older fish. However, several challenges have been identified with the fathead minnow FET test, including: 1) difficulties in obtaining appropriately-staged embryos for FET test initiation, 2) a paucity of data comparing fathead minnow FET test performance to the fathead minnow larval growth and survival (LGS) test and 3) a lack of sublethal endpoints that could be used to estimate chronic toxicity and/or predict adverse effects. These challenges were addressed through three study objectives. The first objective was to optimize embryo production by assessing the effect of breeding group composition (number of males and females) on egg production. Results showed that groups containing one male and four females produced the largest clutches, enhancing the likelihood of procuring sufficient numbers of embryos for FET test initiation. The second study objective was to compare the performance of the FET test to that of the fathead minnow LGS test using three reference toxicants. The FET and LGS tests were similar in their ability to predict the acute toxicity of sodium chloride and ethanol, but the FET test was found to be more sensitive than the LGS test for sodium dodecyl sulfate. The last objective of the study was to evaluate the utility and practicality of several sublethal metrics (i.e., growth, developmental abnormalities and growth- and stress-related gene expression) as FET test endpoints. Developmental abnormalities, including pericardial edema and hatch success, were found to offer the most promise as additional FET test endpoints, given their responsiveness, potential for predicting adverse effects, ease of assessment and low cost of measurement. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Systematic Review of the Reliability and Validity of Behavioural Tests Used to Assess Behavioural Characteristics Important in Working Dogs.

PubMed

Brady, Karen; Cracknell, Nina; Zulch, Helen; Mills, Daniel Simon

2018-01-01

Working dogs are selected based on predictions from tests that they will be able to perform specific tasks in often challenging environments. However, withdrawal from service in working dogs is still a big problem, bringing into question the reliability of the selection tests used to make these predictions. A systematic review was undertaken aimed at bringing together available information on the reliability and predictive validity of the assessment of behavioural characteristics used with working dogs to establish the quality of selection tests currently available for use to predict success in working dogs. The search procedures resulted in 16 papers meeting the criteria for inclusion. A large range of behaviour tests and parameters were used in the identified papers, and so behaviour tests and their underpinning constructs were grouped on the basis of their relationship with positive core affect (willingness to work, human-directed social behaviour, object-directed play tendencies) and negative core affect (human-directed aggression, approach withdrawal tendencies, sensitivity to aversives). We then examined the papers for reports of inter-rater reliability, within-session intra-rater reliability, test-retest validity and predictive validity. The review revealed a widespread lack of information relating to the reliability and validity of measures to assess behaviour and inconsistencies in terminologies, study parameters and indices of success. There is a need to standardise the reporting of these aspects of behavioural tests in order to improve the knowledge base of what characteristics are predictive of optimal performance in working dog roles, improving selection processes and reducing working dog redundancy. We suggest the use of a framework based on explaining the direct or indirect relationship of the test with core affect.

Ovulation home test

MedlinePlus

... test (home test); Ovulation prediction test; Ovulation predictor kit; Urinary LH immunoassays; At-home ovulation prediction test; ... Ovulation prediction test kits most often come with five to seven sticks. You may need to test for several days to detect a ...

Hostile and energetic: Anger is predicted by low agreeableness and high energetic arousal

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

A hypothesis that anger is related to high energetic arousal (EA), but only at a low level of agreeableness was tested. In the first two studies, the association between trait anger, agreeableness, and EA was explored. In the next two studies, the interactions of agreeableness with constructs conceptually and empirically close to EA, in predicting anger were tested. Study 3 revealed that anger was predicted by a low level of agreeableness and a high level of positive affect. In study 4 task engagement (construct containing an energetic component) was included in the context of cognitive performance. At a high level of agreeableness the association between anger and task engagement was negative, whereas among individuals with low agreeableness this relation was not significant. PMID:28931038

Prediction of Suicide: A Replication Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Farberow, Norman L.; MacKinnon, Douglas

1975-01-01

A replication study was conducted to retest the validity of the Neuropsychiatric Hospital Suicide Potential Scale. Fifty four patients who had committed suicide and fifty who had not were the population studied to test, if possible, the limits of prediction the scale can attain by judging the behavior of these patients. (DEP)

Subjective Well-Being, Test Anxiety, Academic Achievement: Testing for Reciprocal Effects.

PubMed

Steinmayr, Ricarda; Crede, Julia; McElvany, Nele; Wirthwein, Linda

2015-01-01

In the context of adolescents' subjective well-being (SWB), research has recently focused on a number of different school variables. The direction of the relationships between adolescents' SWB, academic achievement, and test anxiety is, however, still open although reciprocal causation has been hypothesized. The present study set out to investigate to what extent SWB, academic achievement, and test anxiety influence each other over time. A sample of N = 290 11th grade students (n = 138 female; age: M = 16.54 years, SD = 0.57) completed measures of SWB and test anxiety in the time span of 1 year. Grade point average (GPA) indicated students' academic achievement. We analyzed the reciprocal relations using cross-lagged structural equation modeling. The model fit was satisfactory for all computed models. Results indicated that the worry component of test anxiety negatively and GPA positively predicted changes in the cognitive component of SWB (life satisfaction). Worry also negatively predicted changes in the affective component of SWB. Moreover, worry negatively predicted changes in students' GPA. Directions for future research and the differential predictive influences of academic achievement and test anxiety on adolescents' SWB are discussed with regard to potential underlying processes.

Subjective Well-Being, Test Anxiety, Academic Achievement: Testing for Reciprocal Effects

PubMed Central

Steinmayr, Ricarda; Crede, Julia; McElvany, Nele; Wirthwein, Linda

2016-01-01

In the context of adolescents’ subjective well-being (SWB), research has recently focused on a number of different school variables. The direction of the relationships between adolescents’ SWB, academic achievement, and test anxiety is, however, still open although reciprocal causation has been hypothesized. The present study set out to investigate to what extent SWB, academic achievement, and test anxiety influence each other over time. A sample of N = 290 11th grade students (n = 138 female; age: M = 16.54 years, SD = 0.57) completed measures of SWB and test anxiety in the time span of 1 year. Grade point average (GPA) indicated students’ academic achievement. We analyzed the reciprocal relations using cross-lagged structural equation modeling. The model fit was satisfactory for all computed models. Results indicated that the worry component of test anxiety negatively and GPA positively predicted changes in the cognitive component of SWB (life satisfaction). Worry also negatively predicted changes in the affective component of SWB. Moreover, worry negatively predicted changes in students’ GPA. Directions for future research and the differential predictive influences of academic achievement and test anxiety on adolescents’ SWB are discussed with regard to potential underlying processes. PMID:26779096

Genetic prediction of type 2 diabetes using deep neural network.

PubMed

Kim, J; Kim, J; Kwak, M J; Bajaj, M

2018-04-01

Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) has strong heritability but genetic models to explain heritability have been challenging. We tested deep neural network (DNN) to predict T2DM using the nested case-control study of Nurses' Health Study (3326 females, 45.6% T2DM) and Health Professionals Follow-up Study (2502 males, 46.5% T2DM). We selected 96, 214, 399, and 678 single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNPs) through Fisher's exact test and L1-penalized logistic regression. We split each dataset randomly in 4:1 to train prediction models and test their performance. DNN and logistic regressions showed better area under the curve (AUC) of ROC curves than the clinical model when 399 or more SNPs included. DNN was superior than logistic regressions in AUC with 399 or more SNPs in male and 678 SNPs in female. Addition of clinical factors consistently increased AUC of DNN but failed to improve logistic regressions with 214 or more SNPs. In conclusion, we show that DNN can be a versatile tool to predict T2DM incorporating large numbers of SNPs and clinical information. Limitations include a relatively small number of the subjects mostly of European ethnicity. Further studies are warranted to confirm and improve performance of genetic prediction models using DNN in different ethnic groups. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The diagnostic value of troponin T testing in the community setting.

PubMed

Planer, David; Leibowitz, David; Paltiel, Ora; Boukhobza, Rina; Lotan, Chaim; Weiss, Teddy A

2006-03-08

Many patients presenting with chest pain to their family physician are referred to the emergency room, in part, due to lack of accurate objective diagnostic tools. This study aimed to assess the diagnostic value of bedside troponin T kit testing in patients presenting with chest pain to their family physician. Prospective, multi-center study. Consecutive subjects with chest pain were recruited from 44 community clinics in Jerusalem. Following clinical assessment by the family physician, qualitative troponin kit testing was performed. Patients with a negative clinical assessment and negative troponin kit were sent home and all others were referred to the emergency room. The final diagnosis at the time of hospital discharge was recorded and telephone follow up was performed after 60 days. Positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity and specificity of troponin kit for myocardial infarction diagnosis and of family physician for hospitalization, were assessed. Of 392 patients enrolled, 349 (89%) were included in the final analysis. The prevalence of myocardial infarction was 1.7%. The positive and negative predictive values of the troponin kit for myocardial infarction diagnosis were 100% and 99.7%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values of the family physician's assessment to predict hospitalization were 41.4% and 94.1%, respectively. Troponin kit testing is an important tool to assist the family physician in the assessment of patients with chest pain in the community setting. Troponin kit testing may identify otherwise undiagnosed cases of myocardial infarctions, and reduce unnecessary referrals to the emergency room.

Learning and Study Strategies Inventory subtests and factors as predictors of National Board of Chiropractic Examiners Part 1 examination performance.

PubMed

Schutz, Christine M; Dalton, Leanne; Tepe, Rodger E

2013-01-01

This study was designed to extend research on the relationship between chiropractic students' learning and study strategies and national board examination performance. Sixty-nine first trimester chiropractic students self-administered the Learning and Study Strategies Inventory (LASSI). Linear trends tests (for continuous variables) and Mantel-Haenszel trend tests (for categorical variables) were utilized to determine if the 10 LASSI subtests and 3 factors predicted low, medium and high levels of National Board of Chiropractic Examiners (NBCE) Part 1 scores. Multiple regression was performed to predict overall mean NBCE examination scores using the 3 LASSI factors as predictor variables. Four LASSI subtests (Anxiety, Concentration, Selecting Main Ideas, Test Strategies) and one factor (Goal Orientation) were significantly associated with NBCE examination levels. One factor (Goal Orientation) was a significant predictor of overall mean NBCE examination performance. Learning and study strategies are predictive of NBCE Part 1 examination performance in chiropractic students. The current study found LASSI subtests Anxiety, Concentration, Selecting Main Ideas, and Test Strategies, and the Goal-Orientation factor to be significant predictors of NBCE scores. The LASSI may be useful to educators in preparing students for academic success. Further research is warranted to explore the effects of learning and study strategies training on GPA and NBCE performance.

The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

2016-09-01

This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

Calibration power of the Braden scale in predicting pressure ulcer development.

PubMed

Chen, Hong-Lin; Cao, Ying-Juan; Wang, Jing; Huai, Bao-Sha

2016-11-02

Calibration is the degree of correspondence between the estimated probability produced by a model and the actual observed probability. The aim of this study was to investigate the calibration power of the Braden scale in predicting pressure ulcer development (PU). A retrospective analysis was performed among consecutive patients in 2013. The patients were separated into training a group and a validation group. The predicted incidence was calculated using a logistic regression model in the training group and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was used for assessing the goodness of fit. In the validation cohort, the observed and the predicted incidence were compared by the Chi-square (χ 2 ) goodness of fit test for calibration power. We included 2585 patients in the study, of these 78 patients (3.0%) developed a PU. Between the training and validation groups the patient characteristics were non-significant (p>0.05). In the training group, the logistic regression model for predicting pressure ulcer was Logit(P) = -0.433*Braden score+2.616. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed no goodness fit (χ 2 =13.472; p=0.019). In the validation group, the predicted pressure ulcer incidence also did not fit well with the observed incidence (χ 2 =42.154, p=0.000 by Braden scores; and χ 2 =17.223, p=0.001 by Braden scale risk classification). The Braden scale has low calibration power in predicting PU formation.

Statistical procedures for evaluating daily and monthly hydrologic model predictions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coffey, M.E.; Workman, S.R.; Taraba, J.L.; Fogle, A.W.

2004-01-01

The overall study objective was to evaluate the applicability of different qualitative and quantitative methods for comparing daily and monthly SWAT computer model hydrologic streamflow predictions to observed data, and to recommend statistical methods for use in future model evaluations. Statistical methods were tested using daily streamflows and monthly equivalent runoff depths. The statistical techniques included linear regression, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, nonparametric tests, t-test, objective functions, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation. None of the methods specifically applied to the non-normal distribution and dependence between data points for the daily predicted and observed data. Of the tested methods, median objective functions, sign test, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation were most applicable for the daily data. The robust coefficient of determination (CD*) and robust modeling efficiency (EF*) objective functions were the preferred methods for daily model results due to the ease of comparing these values with a fixed ideal reference value of one. Predicted and observed monthly totals were more normally distributed, and there was less dependence between individual monthly totals than was observed for the corresponding predicted and observed daily values. More statistical methods were available for comparing SWAT model-predicted and observed monthly totals. The 1995 monthly SWAT model predictions and observed data had a regression Rr2 of 0.70, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.41, and the t-test failed to reject the equal data means hypothesis. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the R r2 coefficient were the preferred methods for monthly results due to the ability to compare these coefficients to a set ideal value of one.

Metabolomics biomarkers to predict acamprosate treatment response in alcohol-dependent subjects.

PubMed

Hinton, David J; Vázquez, Marely Santiago; Geske, Jennifer R; Hitschfeld, Mario J; Ho, Ada M C; Karpyak, Victor M; Biernacka, Joanna M; Choi, Doo-Sup

2017-05-31

Precision medicine for alcohol use disorder (AUD) allows optimal treatment of the right patient with the right drug at the right time. Here, we generated multivariable models incorporating clinical information and serum metabolite levels to predict acamprosate treatment response. The sample of 120 patients was randomly split into a training set (n = 80) and test set (n = 40) five independent times. Treatment response was defined as complete abstinence (no alcohol consumption during 3 months of acamprosate treatment) while nonresponse was defined as any alcohol consumption during this period. In each of the five training sets, we built a predictive model using a least absolute shrinkage and section operator (LASSO) penalized selection method and then evaluated the predictive performance of each model in the corresponding test set. The models predicted acamprosate treatment response with a mean sensitivity and specificity in the test sets of 0.83 and 0.31, respectively, suggesting our model performed well at predicting responders, but not non-responders (i.e. many non-responders were predicted to respond). Studies with larger sample sizes and additional biomarkers will expand the clinical utility of predictive algorithms for pharmaceutical response in AUD.

Counteracting Obstacles with Optimistic Predictions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zhang, Ying; Fishbach, Ayelet

2010-01-01

This research tested for counteractive optimism: a self-control strategy of generating optimistic predictions of future goal attainment in order to overcome anticipated obstacles in goal pursuit. In support of the counteractive optimism model, participants in 5 studies predicted better performance, more time invested in goal activities, and lower…

Prediction/discussion-based learning cycle versus conceptual change text: comparative effects on students' understanding of genetics

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

khawaldeh, Salem A. Al

2013-07-01

Background and purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the comparative effects of a prediction/discussion-based learning cycle (HPD-LC), conceptual change text (CCT) and traditional instruction on 10th grade students' understanding of genetics concepts. Sample: Participants were 112 10th basic grade male students in three classes of the same school located in an urban area. The three classes taught by the same biology teacher were randomly assigned as a prediction/discussion-based learning cycle class (n = 39), conceptual change text class (n = 37) and traditional class (n = 36). Design and method: A quasi-experimental research design of pre-test-post-test non-equivalent control group was adopted. Participants completed the Genetics Concept Test as pre-test-post-test, to examine the effects of instructional strategies on their genetics understanding. Pre-test scores and Test of Logical Thinking scores were used as covariates. Results: The analysis of covariance showed a statistically significant difference between the experimental and control groups in the favor of experimental groups after treatment. However, no statistically significant difference between the experimental groups (HPD-LC versus CCT instruction) was found. Conclusions: Overall, the findings of this study support the use of the prediction/discussion-based learning cycle and conceptual change text in both research and teaching. The findings may be useful for improving classroom practices in teaching science concepts and for the development of suitable materials promoting students' understanding of science.

The Comparative Effects of Prediction/Discussion-Based Learning Cycle, Conceptual Change Text, and Traditional Instructions on Student Understanding of Genetics

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Yilmaz, Diba; Tekkaya, Ceren; Sungur, Semra

2011-01-01

The present study examined the comparative effects of a prediction/discussion-based learning cycle, conceptual change text (CCT), and traditional instructions on students' understanding of genetics concepts. A quasi-experimental research design of the pre-test-post-test non-equivalent control group was adopted. The three intact classes, taught by…

LANNA Tests and the Prediction of Year 10 English and Mathematics Results

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hemmings, Brian; Kay, Russell

2009-01-01

There is a dearth of published information about the Literacy and Numeracy National Assessment (LANNA). This study was designed to explore the relationships among LANNA test scores at Year 7 and, in addition, to examine the predictive capacity of these scores in relation to Year 10 School Certificate English and Mathematics results. As a way of…

Incremental Criterion Validity of the WJ-III COG Clinical Clusters: Marginal Predictive Effects beyond the General Factor

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGill, Ryan J.

2015-01-01

The current study examined the incremental validity of the clinical clusters from the Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Cognitive Abilities (WJ-III COG) for predicting scores on the Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Achievement (WJ-III ACH). All participants were children and adolescents (N = 4,722) drawn from the nationally representative WJ-III…

Using Standardized Tests to Identify Prior Knowledge Necessary for Success in Algebra: A Predictive Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jensen, Jennifer

2014-01-01

This study sought to determine if there is a relationship between students' scores on the eighth-grade Indiana State Test of Education Progress Plus (ISTEP+) exam and success on Indiana's Algebra End-of-Course Assessment (ECA). Additionally, it sought to determine if algebra success could be significantly predicted by the achievement in one or…

Executive functioning performance predicts subjective and physiological acute stress reactivity: preliminary results.

PubMed

Hendrawan, Donny; Yamakawa, Kaori; Kimura, Motohiro; Murakami, Hiroki; Ohira, Hideki

2012-06-01

Individual differences in baseline executive functioning (EF) capacities have been shown to predict state anxiety during acute stressor exposure. However, no previous studies have clearly demonstrated the relationship between EF and physiological measures of stress. The present study investigated the efficacy of several well-known EF tests (letter fluency, Stroop test, and Wisconsin Card Sorting Test) in predicting both subjective and physiological stress reactivity during acute psychosocial stress exposure. Our results show that letter fluency served as the best predictor for both types of reactivity. Specifically, the higher the letter fluency score, the lower the acute stress reactivity after controlling for the baseline stress response, as indicated by lower levels of state anxiety, negative mood, salivary cortisol, and skin conductance. Moreover, the predictive power of the letter fluency test remained significant for state anxiety and cortisol indices even after further adjustments for covariates by adding the body mass index (BMI) as a covariate. Thus, good EF performance, as reflected by high letter fluency scores, may dampen acute stress responses, which suggests that EF processes are directly associated with aspects of stress regulation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Association with humans and seasonality interact to reverse predictions for animal space use.

PubMed

Laver, Peter N; Alexander, Kathleen A

2018-01-01

Variation in animal space use reflects fitness trade-offs associated with ecological constraints. Associated theories such as the metabolic theory of ecology and the resource dispersion hypothesis generate predictions about what drives variation in animal space use. But, metabolic theory is usually tested in macro-ecological studies and is seldom invoked explicitly in within-species studies. Full evaluation of the resource dispersion hypothesis requires testing in more species. Neither have been evaluated in the context of anthropogenic landscape change. In this study, we used data for banded mongooses ( Mungos mungo ) in northeastern Botswana, along a gradient of association with humans, to test for effects of space use drivers predicted by these theories. We used Bayesian parameter estimation and inference from linear models to test for seasonal differences in space use metrics and to model seasonal effects of space use drivers. Results suggest that space use is strongly associated with variation in the level of overlap that mongoose groups have with humans. Seasonality influences this association, reversing seasonal space use predictions historically-accepted by ecologists. We found support for predictions of the metabolic theory when moderated by seasonality, by association with humans and by their interaction. Space use of mongooses living in association with humans was more concentrated in the dry season than the wet season, when historically-accepted ecological theory predicted more dispersed space use. Resource richness factors such as building density were associated with space use only during the dry season. We found negligible support for predictions of the resource dispersion hypothesis in general or for metabolic theory where seasonality and association with humans were not included. For mongooses living in association with humans, space use was not associated with patch dispersion or group size over both seasons. In our study, living in association with humans influenced space use patterns that diverged from historically-accepted predictions. There is growing need to explicitly incorporate human-animal interactions into ecological theory and research. Our results and methodology may contribute to understanding effects of anthropogenic landscape change on wildlife populations.

The reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale.

PubMed

Chen, Chia-Wei; Chu, Hsin; Tsai, Chia-Fen; Yang, Hui-Ling; Tsai, Jui-Chen; Chung, Min-Huey; Liao, Yuan-Mei; Chi, Mei-Ju; Chou, Kuei-Ru

2015-11-01

The purpose of this study was to translate the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale into Chinese and to evaluate the psychometric properties (reliability and validity) and the diagnostic properties (sensitivity, specificity and predictive values) of the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale. The accurate detection of early dementia requires screening tools with favourable cross-cultural linguistic and appropriate sensitivity, specificity, and predictive values, particularly for Chinese-speaking populations. This was a cross-sectional, descriptive study. Overall, 130 participants suspected to have cognitive impairment were enrolled in the study. A test-retest for determining reliability was scheduled four weeks after the initial test. Content validity was determined by five experts, whereas construct validity was established by using contrasted group technique. The participants' clinical diagnoses were used as the standard in calculating the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The study revealed that the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited a test-retest reliability of 0.90, an internal consistency reliability of 0.71, an inter-rater reliability (kappa value) of 0.88 and a content validity index of 0.97. Both the patients and healthy contrast group exhibited significant differences in their cognitive ability. The optimal cut-off points for the Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale in the test for mild cognitive impairment and dementia were 24 and 22, respectively; moreover, for these two conditions, the sensitivities of the scale were 0.79 and 0.76, the specificities were 0.91 and 0.81, the areas under the curve were 0.85 and 0.78, the positive predictive values were 0.99 and 0.83 and the negative predictive values were 0.96 and 0.91 respectively. The Chinese version of the Rowland Universal Dementia Assessment Scale exhibited sound reliability, validity, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values. This scale can help clinical staff members to quickly and accurately diagnose cognitive impairment and provide appropriate treatment as early as possible. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Diagnostic value of the basophil activation test in evaluating Hymenoptera venom sensitization.

PubMed

Peternelj, Andreja; Silar, Mira; Bajrovic, Nissera; Adamic, Katja; Music, Ema; Kosnik, Mitja; Korosec, Peter

2009-01-01

Diagnosis of allergy to Hymenoptera venom is usually confirmed with skin testing and measurement of specific serum IgE antibody, tests which are sometimes inconclusive. In these cases, additional in vitro tests are necessary. The aim of this study was to show the applicability of the basophil activation test in detecting sensitization to Hymenoptera venom and to compare the test sensitivity and clinical positive-predictive value with skin prick tests and measurement of allergen-specific serum IgE. This prospective study was conducted between June 2004 and December 2007 and included a large group of 204 patients. All patients had a history of at least one systemic allergic reaction of Müller grades II-IV after a Hymenoptera sting. We compared results of the basophil activation test, specific serum IgE and skin prick tests with patients' clinical history and data on culprit insects. The overall clinical sensitivities of the basophil activation test, specific serum IgE and skin prick tests were 90%, 76% and 64%, respectively; the clinical positive-predictive values of the three tests were 79%, 73% and 78% for bee venom, 86%, 59% and 43% for wasp venom; and 84%, 77% and 22% for both venoms. Our results revealed a higher clinical sensitivity and comparable or better clinical positive-predictive value of basophil activation tests than skin prick tests and allergen-specific serum IgE in the detection of allergy to Hymenoptera venom.

Non-destructive testing of concrete.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1979-11-01

This research project was initiated to evaluate the performance of an ultrasonic testing device device in predicting compressive strengths from tests performed on samples of fresh concrete. : The initial phase of this study involved laboratory perora...

Metamemory prediction accuracy for simple prospective and retrospective memory tasks in 5-year-old children.

PubMed

Kvavilashvili, Lia; Ford, Ruth M

2014-11-01

It is well documented that young children greatly overestimate their performance on tests of retrospective memory (RM), but the current investigation is the first to examine children's prediction accuracy for prospective memory (PM). Three studies were conducted, each testing a different group of 5-year-olds. In Study 1 (N=46), participants were asked to predict their success in a simple event-based PM task (remembering to convey a message to a toy mole if they encountered a particular picture during a picture-naming activity). Before naming the pictures, children listened to either a reminder story or a neutral story. Results showed that children were highly accurate in their PM predictions (78% accuracy) and that the reminder story appeared to benefit PM only in children who predicted they would remember the PM response. In Study 2 (N=80), children showed high PM prediction accuracy (69%) regardless of whether the cue was specific or general and despite typical overoptimism regarding their performance on a 10-item RM task using item-by-item prediction. Study 3 (N=35) showed that children were prone to overestimate RM even when asked about their ability to recall a single item-the mole's unusual name. In light of these findings, we consider possible reasons for children's impressive PM prediction accuracy, including the potential involvement of future thinking in performance predictions and PM. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Tongue Blade Bite Test Predicts Mandible Fractures

PubMed Central

Neiner, John; Free, Rachael; Caldito, Gloria; Moore-Medlin, Tara; Nathan, Cherie-Ann

2015-01-01

The aim of the study is to evaluate the utility of a simple tongue blade bite test in predicting mandible fractures and use this test as an alternative screening tool for further workup. This is a retrospective chart review. An institutional review board approved the retrospective review of patients evaluated by the Department of Otolaryngology at a single institution for facial trauma performed from November 1, 2011, to February 27, 2014. Patients who had a bite test documented were included in the study. CT was performed in all cases and was used as the gold standard to diagnose mandible fractures. Variables analyzed included age, sex, fracture type/location on CT, bite test positivity, and operative intervention. A total of 86 patients met the inclusion criteria and of those 12 were pediatric patients. Majority of the patients were male (80.2%) and adult (86.0%; average age: 34.3 years). Fifty-seven patients had a negative bite test and on CT scans had no mandible fracture. Twenty-three patients had a positive bite test and a CT scan confirmed fracture. The bite test revealed a sensitivity of 88.5% (95% CI: 69.8–97.6%), specificity of 95.0% (95% CI:86.1–99%), positive predictive value [PPV] of 88.5% (95% CI: 69.8–97.6%), and negative predictive value [NPV] of 95.0% (95% CI: 86.1–99.0%). Among pediatric patients, the sensitivity was 100% (95% CI: 29.9–100%), specificity was 88.9% (95% CI: 68.4–100%), PPV was 75.0% (95% CI: 19.4–99.4%), and NPV was 100% (95% CI: 63.1–100%). The tongue blade bite test is a quick inexpensive diagnostic tool for the otolaryngologist with high sensitivity and specificity for predicting mandible fractures. In the pediatric population, where avoidance of unnecessary CT scans is of highest priority, a wider range of data collection should be undertaken to better assess its utility. PMID:27162567

PC-PVT 2.0: An updated platform for psychomotor vigilance task testing, analysis, prediction, and visualization.

PubMed

Reifman, Jaques; Kumar, Kamal; Khitrov, Maxim Y; Liu, Jianbo; Ramakrishnan, Sridhar

2018-07-01

The psychomotor vigilance task (PVT) has been widely used to assess the effects of sleep deprivation on human neurobehavioral performance. To facilitate research in this field, we previously developed the PC-PVT, a freely available software system analogous to the "gold-standard" PVT-192 that, in addition to allowing for simple visual reaction time (RT) tests, also allows for near real-time PVT analysis, prediction, and visualization in a personal computer (PC). Here we present the PC-PVT 2.0 for Windows 10 operating system, which has the capability to couple PVT tests of a study protocol with the study's sleep/wake and caffeine schedules, and make real-time individualized predictions of PVT performance for such schedules. We characterized the accuracy and precision of the software in measuring RT, using 44 distinct combinations of PC hardware system configurations. We found that 15 system configurations measured RTs with an average delay of less than 10 ms, an error comparable to that of the PVT-192. To achieve such small delays, the system configuration should always use a gaming mouse as the means to respond to visual stimuli. We recommend using a discrete graphical processing unit for desktop PCs and an external monitor for laptop PCs. This update integrates a study's sleep/wake and caffeine schedules with the testing software, facilitating testing and outcome visualization, and provides near-real-time individualized PVT predictions for any sleep-loss condition considering caffeine effects. The software, with its enhanced PVT analysis, visualization, and prediction capabilities, can be freely downloaded from https://pcpvt.bhsai.org. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Does the MCAT predict medical school and PGY-1 performance?

PubMed

Saguil, Aaron; Dong, Ting; Gingerich, Robert J; Swygert, Kimberly; LaRochelle, Jeffrey S; Artino, Anthony R; Cruess, David F; Durning, Steven J

2015-04-01

The Medical College Admissions Test (MCAT) is a high-stakes test required for entry to most U. S. medical schools; admissions committees use this test to predict future accomplishment. Although there is evidence that the MCAT predicts success on multiple choice-based assessments, there is little information on whether the MCAT predicts clinical-based assessments of undergraduate and graduate medical education performance. This study looked at associations between the MCAT and medical school grade point average (GPA), Medical Licensing Examination (USMLE) scores, observed patient care encounters, and residency performance assessments. This study used data collected as part of the Long-Term Career Outcome Study to determine associations between MCAT scores, USMLE Step 1, Step 2 clinical knowledge and clinical skill, and Step 3 scores, Objective Structured Clinical Examination performance, medical school GPA, and PGY-1 program director (PD) assessment of physician performance for students graduating 2010 and 2011. MCAT data were available for all students, and the PGY PD evaluation response rate was 86.2% (N = 340). All permutations of MCAT scores (first, last, highest, average) were weakly associated with GPA, Step 2 clinical knowledge scores, and Step 3 scores. MCAT scores were weakly to moderately associated with Step 1 scores. MCAT scores were not significantly associated with Step 2 clinical skills Integrated Clinical Encounter and Communication and Interpersonal Skills subscores, Objective Structured Clinical Examination performance or PGY-1 PD evaluations. MCAT scores were weakly to moderately associated with assessments that rely on multiple choice testing. The association is somewhat stronger for assessments occurring earlier in medical school, such as USMLE Step 1. The MCAT was not able to predict assessments relying on direct clinical observation, nor was it able to predict PD assessment of PGY-1 performance. Reprint & Copyright © 2015 Association of Military Surgeons of the U.S.

The predictive validity of selection for entry into postgraduate training in general practice: evidence from three longitudinal studies

PubMed Central

Patterson, Fiona; Lievens, Filip; Kerrin, Máire; Munro, Neil; Irish, Bill

2013-01-01

Background The selection methodology for UK general practice is designed to accommodate several thousand applicants per year and targets six core attributes identified in a multi-method job-analysis study Aim To evaluate the predictive validity of selection methods for entry into postgraduate training, comprising a clinical problem-solving test, a situational judgement test, and a selection centre. Design and setting A three-part longitudinal predictive validity study of selection into training for UK general practice. Method In sample 1, participants were junior doctors applying for training in general practice (n = 6824). In sample 2, participants were GP registrars 1 year into training (n = 196). In sample 3, participants were GP registrars sitting the licensing examination after 3 years, at the end of training (n = 2292). The outcome measures include: assessor ratings of performance in a selection centre comprising job simulation exercises (sample 1); supervisor ratings of trainee job performance 1 year into training (sample 2); and licensing examination results, including an applied knowledge examination and a 12-station clinical skills objective structured clinical examination (OSCE; sample 3). Results Performance ratings at selection predicted subsequent supervisor ratings of job performance 1 year later. Selection results also significantly predicted performance on both the clinical skills OSCE and applied knowledge examination for licensing at the end of training. Conclusion In combination, these longitudinal findings provide good evidence of the predictive validity of the selection methods, and are the first reported for entry into postgraduate training. Results show that the best predictor of work performance and training outcomes is a combination of a clinical problem-solving test, a situational judgement test, and a selection centre. Implications for selection methods for all postgraduate specialties are considered. PMID:24267856

The predictive validity of selection for entry into postgraduate training in general practice: evidence from three longitudinal studies.

PubMed

Patterson, Fiona; Lievens, Filip; Kerrin, Máire; Munro, Neil; Irish, Bill

2013-11-01

The selection methodology for UK general practice is designed to accommodate several thousand applicants per year and targets six core attributes identified in a multi-method job-analysis study To evaluate the predictive validity of selection methods for entry into postgraduate training, comprising a clinical problem-solving test, a situational judgement test, and a selection centre. A three-part longitudinal predictive validity study of selection into training for UK general practice. In sample 1, participants were junior doctors applying for training in general practice (n = 6824). In sample 2, participants were GP registrars 1 year into training (n = 196). In sample 3, participants were GP registrars sitting the licensing examination after 3 years, at the end of training (n = 2292). The outcome measures include: assessor ratings of performance in a selection centre comprising job simulation exercises (sample 1); supervisor ratings of trainee job performance 1 year into training (sample 2); and licensing examination results, including an applied knowledge examination and a 12-station clinical skills objective structured clinical examination (OSCE; sample 3). Performance ratings at selection predicted subsequent supervisor ratings of job performance 1 year later. Selection results also significantly predicted performance on both the clinical skills OSCE and applied knowledge examination for licensing at the end of training. In combination, these longitudinal findings provide good evidence of the predictive validity of the selection methods, and are the first reported for entry into postgraduate training. Results show that the best predictor of work performance and training outcomes is a combination of a clinical problem-solving test, a situational judgement test, and a selection centre. Implications for selection methods for all postgraduate specialties are considered.

Do implicit measures of attitudes incrementally predict snacking behaviour over explicit affect-related measures?

PubMed

Ayres, Karen; Conner, Mark T; Prestwich, Andrew; Smith, Paul

2012-06-01

Various studies have demonstrated an association between implicit measures of attitudes and dietary-related behaviours. However, no study has tested whether implicit measures of attitudes predict dietary behaviour after controlling for explicit measures of palatability. In a prospective design, two studies assessed the validity of measures of implicit attitude (Implicit Association Test, IAT) and explicit measures of palatability and health-related attitudes on self-reported (Studies 1 and 2) and objective food (fruit vs. chocolate) choice (Study 2). Following regression analyses, in both studies, implicit measures of attitudes were correlated with food choice but failed to significantly predict food choice when controlling specifically for explicit measures of palatability. These consistent relationships emerged despite using different category labels within the IAT in the two studies. The current research suggests implicit measures of attitudes may not predict dietary behaviours after taking into account the palatability of food. This is important in order to establish determinants that explain unique variance in dietary behaviours and to inform dietary change interventions. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A study of the effectiveness of ergonomically-based functional screening tests and their relationship to reducing worker compensation injuries.

PubMed

Anderson, Charles; Briggs, Jim

2008-01-01

This paper summarizes a series of studies of the effectiveness of ergonomically based functional screening tests for post offer pre-placement of applicants for physically demanding jobs, and their relationship to reducing worker compensation injuries. Three predictive validation studies and a meta-analysis of injury rates pre- and post-implementation of physical ability testing at 175 locations are included. The strength and energy expenditure demands of physically-strenuous warehouse jobs in three industries were documented through ergonomic analysis. A battery of strength and endurance tests were developed to assess applicants' abilities to meet the measured physical demands. Predictive validation studies were performed for the jobs in each of the three industries. In each study, new-hires were given the physical ability test battery and then placed on the job. Management was not informed of the results of the tests. Injury experience and work history were then monitored over a two year period in each study. Injury rates and retention were then compared for individuals who passed and individuals who failed the battery. As the battery was implemented in other locations, the injury rate for individuals starting employment in the year prior to implementation was compared to the injury rate for individuals starting employment in the year after implementation. A meta-analysis of the three predictive validation studies indicated that new-hires who passed the battery had a 47% lower worker compensation injury rate and 21% higher retention. A meta-analysis of the 175 pre/post-implementation studies indicated a 41% reduction in worker compensation injuries associated with implementation of ergonomically based physical ability tests.

Validity and Reliability Study of the Korean Tinetti Mobility Test for Parkinson's Disease.

PubMed

Park, Jinse; Koh, Seong-Beom; Kim, Hee Jin; Oh, Eungseok; Kim, Joong-Seok; Yun, Ji Young; Kwon, Do-Young; Kim, Younsoo; Kim, Ji Seon; Kwon, Kyum-Yil; Park, Jeong-Ho; Youn, Jinyoung; Jang, Wooyoung

2018-01-01

Postural instability and gait disturbance are the cardinal symptoms associated with falling among patients with Parkinson's disease (PD). The Tinetti mobility test (TMT) is a well-established measurement tool used to predict falls among elderly people. However, the TMT has not been established or widely used among PD patients in Korea. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the reliability and validity of the Korean version of the TMT for PD patients. Twenty-four patients diagnosed with PD were enrolled in this study. For the interrater reliability test, thirteen clinicians scored the TMT after watching a video clip. We also used the test-retest method to determine intrarater reliability. For concurrent validation, the unified Parkinson's disease rating scale, Hoehn and Yahr staging, Berg Balance Scale, Timed-Up and Go test, 10-m walk test, and gait analysis by three-dimensional motion capture were also used. We analyzed receiver operating characteristic curve to predict falling. The interrater reliability and intrarater reliability of the Korean Tinetti balance scale were 0.97 and 0.98, respectively. The interrater reliability and intra-rater reliability of the Korean Tinetti gait scale were 0.94 and 0.96, respectively. The Korean TMT scores were significantly correlated with the other clinical scales and three-dimensional motion capture. The cutoff values for predicting falling were 14 points (balance subscale) and 10 points (gait subscale). We found that the Korean version of the TMT showed excellent validity and reliability for gait and balance and had high sensitivity and specificity for predicting falls among patients with PD.

Abbreviated neuropsychological assessment in schizophrenia

PubMed Central

Harvey, Philip D.; Keefe, Richard S. E.; Patterson, Thomas L.; Heaton, Robert K.; Bowie, Christopher R.

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify the best subset of neuropsychological tests for prediction of several different aspects of functioning in a large (n = 236) sample of older people with schizophrenia. While the validity of abbreviated assessment methods has been examined before, there has never been a comparative study of the prediction of different elements of cognitive impairment, real-world outcomes, and performance-based measures of functional capacity. Scores on 10 different tests from a neuropsychological assessment battery were used to predict global neuropsychological (NP) performance (indexed with averaged scores or calculated general deficit scores), performance-based indices of everyday-living skills and social competence, and case-manager ratings of real-world functioning. Forward entry stepwise regression analyses were used to identify the best predictors for each of the outcomes measures. Then, the analyses were adjusted for estimated premorbid IQ, which reduced the magnitude, but not the structure, of the correlations. Substantial amounts (over 70%) of the variance in overall NP performance were accounted for by a limited number of NP tests. Considerable variance in measures of functional capacity was also accounted for by a limited number of tests. Different tests constituted the best predictor set for each outcome measure. A substantial proportion of the variance in several different NP and functional outcomes can be accounted for by a small number of NP tests that can be completed in a few minutes, although there is considerable unexplained variance. However, the abbreviated assessments that best predict different outcomes vary across outcomes. Future studies should determine whether responses to pharmacological and remediation treatments can be captured with brief assessments as well. PMID:18720182

Study of the Correlation between the Performances of Lunar Vehicle Wheels Predicted by the Nepean Wheeled Vehicle Performance Model and Test Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wong, J. Y.; Asnani, V. M.

2008-01-01

This paper describes the results of a study of the correlation between the performances of wheels for lunar vehicles predicted using the Nepean wheeled vehicle performance model (NWVPM), developed under the auspices of Vehicle Systems Development Corporation, Ottawa, Canada, and the corresponding test data presented in Performance evaluation of wheels for lunar vehicles , Technical Report M-70-2, prepared for George C. Marshall Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), USA, by the US Army Engineer Waterways Experiment Station (WES). The NWVPM was originally developed for design and performance evaluation of terrestrial off-road wheeled vehicles. The purpose of this study is to assess the potential of the NWVPM for evaluating wheel candidates for the new generation of extra-terrestrial vehicles. Two versions of a wire-mesh wheel and a hoop-spring wheel, which were considered as candidates for lunar roving vehicles for the NASA Apollo program in the late 1960s, together with a pneumatic wheel were examined in this study. The tractive performances of these wheels and of a 464 test vehicle with the pneumatic wheels on air-dry sand were predicted using the NWVPM and compared with the corresponding test data obtained under Earth s gravity and previously documented in the above-named report. While test data on wheel or vehicle performances obtained under Earth s gravity may not necessarily be representative of those on extra-terrestrial bodies, because of the differences in gravity and in environmental conditions, such as atmospheric pressure, it is still a valid approach to use test data obtained under Earth s gravity to evaluate the predictive capability of the NWVPM and its potential applications to predicting wheel or wheeled rover performances on extra-terrestrial bodies. Results of this study show that, using the ratio (P20/W) of the drawbar pull to normal load at 20 per cent slip as a performance indicator, there is a reasonable correlation between the predictions and experimental data. This indicates that the NWVPM has the potential as an engineering tool for evaluating wheel candidates for a future generation of extra-terrestrial vehicles, provided that appropriate input data are available.

Predictive Control of Speededness in Adaptive Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

van der Linden, Wim J.

2009-01-01

An adaptive testing method is presented that controls the speededness of a test using predictions of the test takers' response times on the candidate items in the pool. Two different types of predictions are investigated: posterior predictions given the actual response times on the items already administered and posterior predictions that use the…

Inflation-deflation test as a predictor of aditus patency in patients with chronic suppurative otitis media.

PubMed

Kurien, Regi; Chrisolyte, Shipra; Rupa, V

2009-09-01

To assess eustachian tubal function (ETF) preoperatively in patients with chronic suppurative otitis media (CSOM) with central perforation by performing the inflation-deflation test. To correlate the results of the inflation-deflation test with the finding of aditus patency or block in patients with CSOM STUDY DESIGN: Prospective, cohort Tertiary care hospital Eighty adult patients with chronic suppurative otitis media and central perforation were recruited into the study. There were 45 males and 35 females. All patients underwent preoperative inflation-deflation test followed by cortical mastoidectomy and tympanoplasty. The patency of the aditus was assessed intraoperatively. Equalization of pressure on inflation-deflation test and intraoperative assessment of aditus patency Of a total of 80 patients, 49 patients were found to have discharging ears and 31 had dry ears at the time of surgery. In dry ears the inflation-deflation test had a sensitivity of 93% in predicting aditus patency although the specificity was lower at 67%. In discharging ears the sensitivity in predicting aditus patency was 72% and the specificity was 67%. The eustachian tube inflation-deflation test is a sensitive test for predicting aditus patency in patients with dry ears but less so in patients with discharging ears. Hence, it could be used in the former to avoid unnecessary exploration of the mastoid.

Testing 40 Predictions from the Transtheoretical Model Again, with Confidence

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Velicer, Wayne F.; Brick, Leslie Ann D.; Fava, Joseph L.; Prochaska, James O.

2013-01-01

Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions.…

Does the Noun Phrase Accessibility Hierarchy Predict the Difficulty Order in the Acquisition of Japanese Relative Clauses?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ozeki, Hiromi; Shirai, Yasuhiro

2007-01-01

Although Keenan and Comrie's (1977) noun phrase accessibility hierarchy (NPAH) has been shown to predict the difficulty order of relative clauses (RCs) in SLA, most studies of the NPAH have been on European languages. This paper tests the prediction for Japanese. Study 1 analyzes RCs in an oral interview corpus from 90 learners of Japanese at four…

A Pilot Study for Applying an Extravehicular Activity Exercise Prebreathe Protocol to the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Woodruff, Kristin K.; Johnson, Anyika N.; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Gernhardt, Michael; Schneider, Suzanne M.; Foster, Philip P.

2000-01-01

Decompression sickness (DCS) is a serious risk to astronauts performing extravehicular activity (EVA). To reduce this risk, the addition of ten minutes of moderate exercise (75% VO2pk) during prebreathe has been shown to decrease the total prebreathe time from 4 to 2 hours and to decrease the incidence of DCS. The overall purpose of this pilot study was to develop an exercise protocol using flight hardware and an in-flight physical fitness cycle test to perform prebreathe exercise before an EVA. Eleven subjects volunteered to participate in this study. The first objective of this study was to compare the steady-state heart rate (HR) and oxygen consumption (VO2) from a submaximal arm and leg exercise (ALE) session with those predicted from a maximal ALE test. The second objective was to compare the steady-state HR and V02 from a submaximal elastic tube and leg exercise (TLE) session with those predicted from the maximal ALE test. The third objective involved a comparison of the maximal ALE test with a maximal leg-only (LE) test to conform to the in- flight fitness assessment test. The 75% VO2pk target HR from the LE test was significantly less than the target HR from the ALE test. Prescribing exercise using data from the maximal ALE test resulted in the measured submaximal values being higher than predicted VO2 and HR. The results of this pilot study suggest that elastic tubing is valid during EVA prebreathe as a method of arm exercise with the flight leg ergometer and it is recommended that prebreathe countermeasure exercise protocol incorporate this method.

Challenges in Rotorcraft Acoustic Flight Prediction and Validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Boyd, D. Douglas, Jr.

2003-01-01

Challenges associated with rotorcraft acoustic flight prediction and validation are examined. First, an outline of a state-of-the-art rotorcraft aeroacoustic prediction methodology is presented. Components including rotorcraft aeromechanics, high resolution reconstruction, and rotorcraft acoustic prediction arc discussed. Next, to illustrate challenges and issues involved, a case study is presented in which an analysis of flight data from a specific XV-15 tiltrotor acoustic flight test is discussed in detail. Issues related to validation of methodologies using flight test data are discussed. Primary flight parameters such as velocity, altitude, and attitude are discussed and compared for repeated flight conditions. Other measured steady state flight conditions are examined for consistency and steadiness. A representative example prediction is presented and suggestions are made for future research.

Metacognitive Influences on Study Time Allocation in an Associative Recognition Task: An Analysis of Adult Age Differences

PubMed Central

Hines, Jarrod C.; Touron, Dayna R.; Hertzog, Christopher

2009-01-01

The current study evaluated a metacognitive account of study time allocation, which argues that metacognitive monitoring of recognition test accuracy and latency influences subsequent strategic control and regulation. We examined judgments of learning (JOLs), recognition test confidence judgments (CJs), and subjective response time (RT) judgments by younger and older adults in an associative recognition task involving two study-test phases, with self-paced study in phase 2. Multilevel regression analyses assessed the degree to which age and metacognitive variables predicted phase 2 study time independent of actual test accuracy and RT. Outcomes supported the metacognitive account – JOLs and CJs predicted study time independent of recognition accuracy. For older adults with errant RT judgments, subjective retrieval fluency influenced response confidence as well as (mediated through confidence) subsequent study time allocation. Older adults studied items longer which had been assigned lower CJs, suggesting no age deficit in using memory monitoring to control learning. PMID:19485662

Prostatectomy-based validation of combined urine and plasma test for predicting high grade prostate cancer.

PubMed

Albitar, Maher; Ma, Wanlong; Lund, Lars; Shahbaba, Babak; Uchio, Edward; Feddersen, Søren; Moylan, Donald; Wojno, Kirk; Shore, Neal

2018-03-01

Distinguishing between low- and high-grade prostate cancers (PCa) is important, but biopsy may underestimate the actual grade of cancer. We have previously shown that urine/plasma-based prostate-specific biomarkers can predict high grade PCa. Our objective was to determine the accuracy of a test using cell-free RNA levels of biomarkers in predicting prostatectomy results. This multicenter community-based prospective study was conducted using urine/blood samples collected from 306 patients. All recruited patients were treatment-naïve, without metastases, and had been biopsied, designated a Gleason Score (GS) based on biopsy, and assigned to prostatectomy prior to participation in the study. The primary outcome measure was the urine/plasma test accuracy in predicting high grade PCa on prostatectomy compared with biopsy findings. Sensitivity and specificity were calculated using standard formulas, while comparisons between groups were performed using the Wilcoxon Rank Sum, Kruskal-Wallis, Chi-Square, and Fisher's exact test. GS as assigned by standard 10-12 core biopsies was 3 + 3 in 90 (29.4%), 3 + 4 in 122 (39.8%), 4 + 3 in 50 (16.3%), and > 4 + 3 in 44 (14.4%) patients. The urine/plasma assay confirmed a previous validation and was highly accurate in predicting the presence of high-grade PCa (Gleason ≥3 + 4) with sensitivity between 88% and 95% as verified by prostatectomy findings. GS was upgraded after prostatectomy in 27% of patients and downgraded in 12% of patients. This plasma/urine biomarker test accurately predicts high grade cancer as determined by prostatectomy with a sensitivity at 92-97%, while the sensitivity of core biopsies was 78%. © 2018 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Ejection injury to the spine in small aviators: sled tests of manikins vs. post mortem specimens.

PubMed

Salzar, Robert S; Bolton, James R; Crandall, Jeff R; Paskoff, Glenn R; Shender, Barry S

2009-07-01

This study presents the results of seven aerospace manikin and three post mortem human surrogate (PMHS) horizontal deceleration sled tests. The objective of this study was to establish a body of baseline data that examines the ability of small (fifth percentile) manikins to predict whole-body kinematics associated with aircraft ejection, and whether currently available head and neck injury criteria are applicable in these situations. Subjects were exposed to a short-duration local z-axis sled pulse while horizontally seated and restrained in an ejection seat. Test subjects included instrumented fifth percentile female and male manikins, and two small (163.8 cm, 48.3 kg; 143.5 cm, 48.6 kg) female and one small (166.2 cm, 54.3 kg) male PMHS. The anterior (local x-axis) translations of the PMHS heads were less than those observed in the manikin tests, but the local z-axis translations of the PMHS heads were greater than those of the manikins. Z-axis translations of the manikins' T1 were generally similar to those of the PMHS T1, but the anterior x-axis translations of T1 were greater in the PMHS. The neck injury criterion (Nij) tended to under-predict observed injury (primarily ruptures of the posterior ligaments at C4-5, T2-3), and the Beam Criterion (BC) tended to over-predict observed injury for small occupants. The USN/USAF neck injury criteria (NIC) performed best in predicting the observed injuries. Present manikin designs do not predict the kinematics of PMHS in ejection tests. Further refinement of existing injury criteria is required to accurately predict location and severity of ejection-induced injuries.

Public interest in predictive genetic testing, including direct-to-consumer testing, for susceptibility to major depression: preliminary findings.

PubMed

Wilde, Alex; Meiser, Bettina; Mitchell, Philip B; Schofield, Peter R

2010-01-01

The past decade has seen rapid advances in the identification of associations between candidate genes and a range of common multifactorial disorders. This paper evaluates public attitudes towards the complexity of genetic risk prediction in psychiatry involving susceptibility genes, uncertain penetrance and gene-environment interactions on which successful molecular-based mental health interventions will depend. A qualitative approach was taken to enable the exploration of the views of the public. Four structured focus groups were conducted with a total of 36 participants. The majority of participants indicated interest in having a genetic test for susceptibility to major depression, if it was available. Having a family history of mental illness was cited as a major reason. After discussion of perceived positive and negative implications of predictive genetic testing, nine of 24 participants initially interested in having such a test changed their mind. Fear of genetic discrimination and privacy issues predominantly influenced change of attitude. All participants still interested in having a predictive genetic test for risk for depression reported they would only do so through trusted medical professionals. Participants were unanimously against direct-to-consumer genetic testing marketed through the Internet, although some would consider it if there was suitable protection against discrimination. The study highlights the importance of general practitioner and public education about psychiatric genetics, and the availability of appropriate treatment and support services prior to implementation of future predictive genetic testing services.

Evaluation of a fecal immunochemistry test prior to colonoscopy for outpatients with various indications.

PubMed

Szilagyi, Andrew; Xue, Xiaoqing

2017-01-01

Stool tests can predict advanced neoplasms prior to colonoscopy. Results of immunochemical stool tests to predict findings at colonoscopy for various indications are less often reported. We compared pre-colonoscopy stool tests with findings in patients undergoing colonoscopy for different indications. Charts of patients undergoing elective or semi-urgent colonoscopy were reviewed. Comparison of adenoma detection rates and pathological findings was made between prescreened and non-prescreened, and between stool-positive and stool-negative cases. Demographics, quality of colonoscopy, and pathological findings were recorded. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were assessed. Statistical significance was accepted at p ≤0.05. Charts of 325 patients were reviewed. Among them, stool tests were done on 144 patients: 114 were negative and 30 were positive. Findings were similar in the pretest and non-pretest groups. Detection of advanced adenomas per patient was higher in the stool-positive group compared to the stool-negative group (23.4% vs 3.5%, p =0.0016, OR =7.6 [95% CI: 2-29.3]). Five advanced adenomas (without high-grade dysplasia or adenocarcinoma) and several cases of multiple adenomas were missed in the negative group. Sensitivity and specificity for advanced polyps was 63.6% and 82.7%, respectively. The negative predictive value was 96.5%. Male gender was independently predictive of any adenoma. The stool immunochemical test best predicted advanced neoplasms and had a high negative predictive value in this small cohort. Whether this test can be applied to determine the need for colonoscopy in groups other than average risk would require more studies.

Multivariate statistical assessment of predictors of firefighters' muscular and aerobic work capacity.

PubMed

Lindberg, Ann-Sofie; Oksa, Juha; Antti, Henrik; Malm, Christer

2015-01-01

Physical capacity has previously been deemed important for firefighters physical work capacity, and aerobic fitness, muscular strength, and muscular endurance are the most frequently investigated parameters of importance. Traditionally, bivariate and multivariate linear regression statistics have been used to study relationships between physical capacities and work capacities among firefighters. An alternative way to handle datasets consisting of numerous correlated variables is to use multivariate projection analyses, such as Orthogonal Projection to Latent Structures. The first aim of the present study was to evaluate the prediction and predictive power of field and laboratory tests, respectively, on firefighters' physical work capacity on selected work tasks. Also, to study if valid predictions could be achieved without anthropometric data. The second aim was to externally validate selected models. The third aim was to validate selected models on firefighters' and on civilians'. A total of 38 (26 men and 12 women) + 90 (38 men and 52 women) subjects were included in the models and the external validation, respectively. The best prediction (R2) and predictive power (Q2) of Stairs, Pulling, Demolition, Terrain, and Rescue work capacities included field tests (R2 = 0.73 to 0.84, Q2 = 0.68 to 0.82). The best external validation was for Stairs work capacity (R2 = 0.80) and worst for Demolition work capacity (R2 = 0.40). In conclusion, field and laboratory tests could equally well predict physical work capacities for firefighting work tasks, and models excluding anthropometric data were valid. The predictive power was satisfactory for all included work tasks except Demolition.

The Theory of Planned Behavior as a Predictor of Growth in Risky College Drinking*

PubMed Central

Collins, Susan E.; Witkiewitz, Katie; Larimer, Mary E.

2011-01-01

Objective: This study tested the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) as a predictor of growth in risky college drinking over a 3-month period. As predicted by the TPB model, it was hypothesized that attitudes, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control would predict intention to engage in risky drinking, which would in turn predict growth in future risky drinking. Method: Participants were 837 college drinkers (64.2% female) who were randomly selected from two U.S. West Coast universities to participate in a larger study on college drinking norms. This study used latent growth analyses to test the ability of the TPB to predict baseline levels of as well as linear and quadratic growth in risky college drinking (i.e., heavy episodic drinking and peak drinking quantity). Results: Chi-square tests and fit indices indicated close fit for the final structural models. Self-efficacy, attitudes, and subjective norms significantly predicted baseline intention, which in turn predicted future heavy episodic drinking. Self-efficacy and attitudes were also related to intention in the model of peak drinking; however, subjective norms were not a significant predictor of intention in the peak drinking model. Mediation analyses showed that intention to engage in risky drinking mediated the effects of self-efficacy and attitudes on growth in risky drinking. Conclusions: Findings supported the TPB in predicting risky college drinking. Although the current findings should be replicated before definitive conclusions are drawn, results suggest that feedback on self-efficacy, attitudes, and intentions to engage in risky drinking may be a helpful addition to personalized feedback interventions for this population. PMID:21388605

Core Cutting Test with Vertical Rock Cutting Rig (VRCR)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yasar, Serdar; Osman Yilmaz, Ali

2017-12-01

Roadheaders are frequently used machines in mining and tunnelling, and performance prediction of roadheaders is important for project economics and stability. Several methods were proposed so far for this purpose and, rock cutting tests are the best choice. Rock cutting tests are generally divided into two groups which are namely, full scale rock cutting tests and small scale rock cutting tests. These two tests have some superiorities and deficiencies over themselves. However, in many cases, where rock sampling becomes problematic, small scale rock cutting test (core cutting test) is preferred for performance prediction, since small block samples and core samples can be conducted to rock cutting testing. Common problem for rock cutting tests are that they can be found in very limited research centres. In this study, a new mobile rock cutting testing equipment, vertical rock cutting rig (VRCR) was introduced. Standard testing procedure was conducted on seven rock samples which were the part of a former study on cutting rocks with another small scale rock cutting test. Results showed that core cutting test can be realized successfully with VRCR with the validation of paired samples t-test.

Preschoolers Use Social Allegiances to Predict Behavior

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chalik, Lisa; Rhodes, Marjorie

2014-01-01

Developing mechanisms for predicting human action is a critical task of early conceptual development. Three studies examined whether 4-year-old children (N = 149) use social allegiances to predict behavior, by testing whether they expect the experiences of social partners to influence individual action. After being exposed to a conflict between…

Infants Generate Goal-Based Action Predictions

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cannon, Erin N.; Woodward, Amanda L.

2012-01-01

Predicting the actions of others is critical to smooth social interactions. Prior work suggests that both understanding and anticipation of goal-directed actions appears early in development. In this study, on-line goal prediction was tested explicitly using an adaptation of Woodward's (1998) paradigm for an eye-tracking task. Twenty 11-month-olds…

Executive Functions Predict the Success of Top-Soccer Players

PubMed Central

Vestberg, Torbjörn; Gustafson, Roland; Maurex, Liselotte; Ingvar, Martin; Petrovic, Predrag

2012-01-01

While the importance of physical abilities and motor coordination is non-contested in sport, more focus has recently been turned toward cognitive processes important for different sports. However, this line of studies has often investigated sport-specific cognitive traits, while few studies have focused on general cognitive traits. We explored if measures of general executive functions can predict the success of a soccer player. The present study used standardized neuropsychological assessment tools assessing players' general executive functions including on-line multi-processing such as creativity, response inhibition, and cognitive flexibility. In a first cross-sectional part of the study we compared the results between High Division players (HD), Lower Division players (LD) and a standardized norm group. The result shows that both HD and LD players had significantly better measures of executive functions in comparison to the norm group for both men and women. Moreover, the HD players outperformed the LD players in these tests. In the second prospective part of the study, a partial correlation test showed a significant correlation between the result from the executive test and the numbers of goals and assists the players had scored two seasons later. The results from this study strongly suggest that results in cognitive function tests predict the success of ball sport players. PMID:22496850

Cavitation in liquid cryogens. 4: Combined correlations for venturi, hydrofoil, ogives, and pumps

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hord, J.

1974-01-01

The results of a series of experimental and analytical cavitation studies are presented. Cross-correlation is performed of the developed cavity data for a venturi, a hydrofoil and three scaled ogives. The new correlating parameter, MTWO, improves data correlation for these stationary bodies and for pumping equipment. Existing techniques for predicting the cavitating performance of pumping machinery were extended to include variations in flow coefficient, cavitation parameter, and equipment geometry. The new predictive formulations hold promise as a design tool and universal method for correlating pumping machinery performance. Application of these predictive formulas requires prescribed cavitation test data or an independent method of estimating the cavitation parameter for each pump. The latter would permit prediction of performance without testing; potential methods for evaluating the cavitation parameter prior to testing are suggested.

Clinical prediction of Gardnerella vaginalis in general practice

PubMed Central

O'Dowd, T.C.; West, R.R.

1987-01-01

In a study of 162 women with vaginal symptoms the clinical features of increased discharge, yellow discharge, 'high cheese' odour and pH greater than 5 were statistically strongly associated with the presence of Gardnerella vaginalis, confirmed by microbiological culture. The sensitivities and specificities of these clinical tests, although not as high as those of previously described sideroom tests using the amine test and microscopy for 'clue cells' nevertheless allow the clinician to predict G. vaginalis reliably and initiate treatment at first consultation. PMID:3499508

Adolescents' protection motivation and smoking behaviour.

PubMed

Thrul, Johannes; Stemmler, Mark; Bühler, Anneke; Kuntsche, Emmanuel

2013-08-01

The protection motivation theory (PMT) is a well-known theory of behaviour change. This study tested the applicability of the sub-constructs of threat and coping appraisal in predicting adolescents' smoking-related behavioural intentions and smoking behaviour longitudinally. Adolescents (N = 494) aged 11-16 years and not currently smoking at baseline participated in the study. Predictive validity of PMT constructs was tested in a path analysis model. Self-efficacy significantly predicted behavioural intention at baseline, which significantly predicted behavioural intention at follow-up, which in turn predicted smoking behaviour at follow-up. The effect of self-efficacy on behavioural intention at follow-up was mediated by behavioural intention at baseline and the effect of self-efficacy on smoking behaviour was mediated by behavioural intention at baseline and follow-up. In conclusion, we found support for one part of the PMT, namely for the predictive validity of the coping appraisal construct self-efficacy in predicting adolescents' smoking-related behavioural intention and smoking behaviour. These results fail to support the appropriateness of the PMT's construct threat appraisal in longitudinally predicting adolescents' smoking as well as the applicability of communicating fear and negative information as preventive interventions for this target group.

Study of inducer load and stress, volume 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1972-01-01

A program of analysis, design, fabrication and testing has been conducted to develop computer programs for predicting rocket engine turbopump inducer hydrodynamic loading, stress magnitude and distribution, and vibration characteristics. Methods of predicting blade loading, stress, and vibration characteristics were selected from a literature search and used as a basis for the computer programs. An inducer, representative of typical rocket engine inducers, was designed, fabricated, and tested with special instrumentation selected to provide measurements of blade surface pressures and stresses. Data from the tests were compared with predicted values and the computer programs were revised as required to improve correlation. For Volume 1 see N71-20403. For Volume 2 see N71-20404.

Propeller aircraft interior noise model utilization study and validation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Pope, L. D.

1984-01-01

Utilization and validation of a computer program designed for aircraft interior noise prediction is considered. The program, entitled PAIN (an acronym for Propeller Aircraft Interior Noise), permits (in theory) predictions of sound levels inside propeller driven aircraft arising from sidewall transmission. The objective of the work reported was to determine the practicality of making predictions for various airplanes and the extent of the program's capabilities. The ultimate purpose was to discern the quality of predictions for tonal levels inside an aircraft occurring at the propeller blade passage frequency and its harmonics. The effort involved three tasks: (1) program validation through comparisons of predictions with scale-model test results; (2) development of utilization schemes for large (full scale) fuselages; and (3) validation through comparisons of predictions with measurements taken in flight tests on a turboprop aircraft. Findings should enable future users of the program to efficiently undertake and correctly interpret predictions.

An experimental study on the shear strength of FRP perfobond shear connector

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gwon, S. C.; Kim, S. H.; Yoon, S. J.; Choi, C. W.

2018-06-01

In this study, push-out tests were conducted to investigate shear behaviour of FRP perfobond shear connector. The parameters influencing shear capacity of FRP perfobond shear connector are concrete dowel effect, shear resistance effect of the laterally reinforced FRP re- bar, and frictional effect between shear connector and concrete. The specimens were designed to consider these parameters. The specimens coated with sand to increase frictional resistance between the FRP re-bar and concrete. Based on the test results and the parameters, new equation was suggested to predict shear strength of FRP perfobond shear connectors. The predicted results and the experimental results were compared to check the feasibility of prediction.

Improvement of the predicted aural detection code ICHIN (I Can Hear It Now)

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mueller, Arnold W.; Smith, Charles D.; Lemasurier, Phillip

1993-01-01

Acoustic tests were conducted to study the far-field sound pressure levels and aural detection ranges associated with a Sikorsky S-76A helicopter in straight and level flight at various advancing blade tip Mach numbers. The flight altitude was nominally 150 meters above ground level. This paper compares the normalized predicted aural detection distances, based on the measured far-field sound pressure levels, to the normalized measured aural detection distances obtained from sound jury response measurements obtained during the same test. Both unmodified and modified versions of the prediction code ICHIN-6 (I Can Hear It Now) were used to produce the results for this study.

Value of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein assays in predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Yo, Chia-Hung; Lee, Si-Huei; Chang, Shy-Shin; Lee, Matthew Chien-Hung; Lee, Chien-Chang

2014-02-20

We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) assays to see whether these tests are predictive of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after cardioversion. Systematic review and meta-analysis. PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane databases as well as a hand search of the reference lists in the retrieved articles from inception to December 2013. This review selected observational studies in which the measurements of serum CRP were used to predict AF recurrence. An hs-CRP assay was defined as any CRP test capable of measuring serum CRP to below 0.6 mg/dL. We summarised test performance characteristics with the use of forest plots, hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves and bivariate random effects models. Meta-regression analysis was performed to explore the source of heterogeneity. We included nine qualifying studies comprising a total of 347 patients with AF recurrence and 335 controls. A CRP level higher than the optimal cut-off point was an independent predictor of AF recurrence after cardioversion (summary adjusted OR: 3.33; 95% CI 2.10 to 5.28). The estimated pooled sensitivity and specificity for hs-CRP was 71.0% (95% CI 63% to 78%) and 72.0% (61% to 81%), respectively. Most studies used a CRP cut-off point of 1.9 mg/L to predict long-term AF recurrence (77% sensitivity, 65% specificity), and 3 mg/L to predict short-term AF recurrence (73% sensitivity, 71% specificity). hs-CRP assays are moderately accurate in predicting AF recurrence after successful cardioversion.

Identifying dyslexia in adults: an iterative method using the predictive value of item scores and self-report questions.

PubMed

Tamboer, Peter; Vorst, Harrie C M; Oort, Frans J

2014-04-01

Methods for identifying dyslexia in adults vary widely between studies. Researchers have to decide how many tests to use, which tests are considered to be the most reliable, and how to determine cut-off scores. The aim of this study was to develop an objective and powerful method for diagnosing dyslexia. We took various methodological measures, most of which are new compared to previous methods. We used a large sample of Dutch first-year psychology students, we considered several options for exclusion and inclusion criteria, we collected as many cognitive tests as possible, we used six independent sources of biographical information for a criterion of dyslexia, we compared the predictive power of discriminant analyses and logistic regression analyses, we used both sum scores and item scores as predictor variables, we used self-report questions as predictor variables, and we retested the reliability of predictions with repeated prediction analyses using an adjusted criterion. We were able to identify 74 dyslexic and 369 non-dyslexic students. For 37 students, various predictions were too inconsistent for a final classification. The most reliable predictions were acquired with item scores and self-report questions. The main conclusion is that it is possible to identify dyslexia with a high reliability, although the exact nature of dyslexia is still unknown. We therefore believe that this study yielded valuable information for future methods of identifying dyslexia in Dutch as well as in other languages, and that this would be beneficial for comparing studies across countries.

The predictive value of quantitative fibronectin testing in combination with cervical length measurement in symptomatic women.

PubMed

Bruijn, Merel M C; Kamphuis, Esme I; Hoesli, Irene M; Martinez de Tejada, Begoña; Loccufier, Anne R; Kühnert, Maritta; Helmer, Hanns; Franz, Marie; Porath, Martina M; Oudijk, Martijn A; Jacquemyn, Yves; Schulzke, Sven M; Vetter, Grit; Hoste, Griet; Vis, Jolande Y; Kok, Marjolein; Mol, Ben W J; van Baaren, Gert-Jan

2016-12-01

The combination of the qualitative fetal fibronectin test and cervical length measurement has a high negative predictive value for preterm birth within 7 days; however, positive prediction is poor. A new bedside quantitative fetal fibronectin test showed potential additional value over the conventional qualitative test, but there is limited evidence on the combination with cervical length measurement. The purpose of this study was to compare quantitative fetal fibronectin and qualitative fetal fibronectin testing in the prediction of spontaneous preterm birth within 7 days in symptomatic women who undergo cervical length measurement. We performed a European multicenter cohort study in 10 perinatal centers in 5 countries. Women between 24 and 34 weeks of gestation with signs of active labor and intact membranes underwent quantitative fibronectin testing and cervical length measurement. We assessed the risk of preterm birth within 7 days in predefined strata based on fibronectin concentration and cervical length. Of 455 women who were included in the study, 48 women (11%) delivered within 7 days. A combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin resulted in the identification of 246 women who were at low risk: 164 women with a cervix between 15 and 30 mm and a negative fibronectin test (<50 ng/mL; preterm birth rate, 2%) and 82 women with a cervix at >30 mm (preterm birth rate, 2%). Use of quantitative fibronectin alone resulted in a predicted risk of preterm birth within 7 days that ranged from 2% in the group with the lowest fibronectin level (<10 ng/mL) to 38% in the group with the highest fibronectin level (>500 ng/mL), with similar accuracy as that of the combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin. Combining cervical length and quantitative fibronectin resulted in the identification of an additional 19 women at low risk (preterm birth rate, 5%), using a threshold of 10 ng/mL in women with a cervix at <15 mm, and 6 women at high risk (preterm birth rate, 33%) using a threshold of >500 ng/mL in women with a cervix at >30 mm. In women with threatened preterm birth, quantitative fibronectin testing alone performs equal to the combination of cervical length and qualitative fibronectin. Possibly, the combination of quantitative fibronectin testing and cervical length increases this predictive capacity. Cost-effectiveness analysis and the availability of these tests in a local setting should determine the final choice. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An investigation of new toxicity test method performance in validation studies: 1. Toxicity test methods that have predictive capacity no greater than chance.

PubMed

Bruner, L H; Carr, G J; Harbell, J W; Curren, R D

2002-06-01

An approach commonly used to measure new toxicity test method (NTM) performance in validation studies is to divide toxicity results into positive and negative classifications, and the identify true positive (TP), true negative (TN), false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) results. After this step is completed, the contingent probability statistics (CPS), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) are calculated. Although these statistics are widely used and often the only statistics used to assess the performance of toxicity test methods, there is little specific guidance in the validation literature on what values for these statistics indicate adequate performance. The purpose of this study was to begin developing data-based answers to this question by characterizing the CPS obtained from an NTM whose data have a completely random association with a reference test method (RTM). Determining the CPS of this worst-case scenario is useful because it provides a lower baseline from which the performance of an NTM can be judged in future validation studies. It also provides an indication of relationships in the CPS that help identify random or near-random relationships in the data. The results from this study of randomly associated tests show that the values obtained for the statistics vary significantly depending on the cut-offs chosen, that high values can be obtained for individual statistics, and that the different measures cannot be considered independently when evaluating the performance of an NTM. When the association between results of an NTM and RTM is random the sum of the complementary pairs of statistics (sensitivity + specificity, NPV + PPV) is approximately 1, and the prevalence (i.e., the proportion of toxic chemicals in the population of chemicals) and PPV are equal. Given that combinations of high sensitivity-low specificity or low specificity-high sensitivity (i.e., the sum of the sensitivity and specificity equal to approximately 1) indicate lack of predictive capacity, an NTM having these performance characteristics should be considered no better for predicting toxicity than by chance alone.

Scoring life insurance applicants' laboratory results, blood pressure and build to predict all-cause mortality risk.

PubMed

Fulks, Michael; Stout, Robert L; Dolan, Vera F

2012-01-01

Evaluate the degree of medium to longer term mortality prediction possible from a scoring system covering all laboratory testing used for life insurance applicants, as well as blood pressure and build measurements. Using the results of testing for life insurance applicants who reported a Social Security number in conjunction with the Social Security Death Master File, the mortality associated with each test result was defined by age and sex. The individual mortality scores for each test were combined for each individual and a composite mortality risk score was developed. This score was then tested against the insurance applicant dataset to evaluate its ability to discriminate risk across age and sex. The composite risk score was highly predictive of all-cause mortality risk in a linear manner from the best to worst quintile of scores in a nearly identical fashion for each sex and decade of age. Laboratory studies, blood pressure and build from life insurance applicants can be used to create scoring that predicts all-cause mortality across age and sex. Such an approach may hold promise for preventative health screening as well.

Undergraduates' intentions to take a second language proficiency test: a comparison of predictions from the theory of planned behavior and social cognitive theory.

PubMed

Lin, Bih-Jiau; Chiou, Wen-Bin

2010-06-01

English competency has become essential for obtaining a better job or succeeding in higher education in Taiwan. Thus, passing the General English Proficiency Test is important for college students in Taiwan. The current study applied Ajzen's theory of planned behavior and the notions of outcome expectancy and self-efficacy from Bandura's social cognitive theory to investigate college students' intentions to take the General English Proficiency Test. The formal sample consisted of 425 undergraduates (217 women, 208 men; M age = 19.5 yr., SD = 1.3). The theory of planned behavior showed greater predictive ability (R2 = 33%) of intention than the social cognitive theory (R2 = 7%) in regression analysis and made a unique contribution to prediction of actual test-taking behavior one year later in logistic regression. Within-model analyses indicated that subjective norm in theory of planned behavior and outcome expectancy in social cognitive theory are crucial factors in predicting intention. Implications for enhancing undergraduates' intentions to take the English proficiency test are discussed.

A systematic review of first trimester biochemical and molecular predictive tests for preeclampsia.

PubMed

Abdi, Fatemeh; Aghaie, Zohreh; Rahnemaie, Fatemeh Sadat; Alimoradi, Zainab

2018-04-16

Preeclampsia is a multisystem disorder affecting 5%-8% of pregnant women. Considering the ongoing debate over the predicting value of some commercial first trimester tests, the aim of this study was to compare the existing first trimester screening tests for preeclampsia. In this systematic review, relevant articles published during 2000-2017 were extracted from PubMed, Science Direct, Scopus, Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science, and ProQuest databases. After thorough evaluation of the 412 potentially eligible papers, only 26 papers were selected based on the inclusion criteria. From a total of 412 retrieved studies, 28 papers were found eligible. Most studies had case-control or nested case-control designs. A total of 15164 pregnant women were evaluated in the reviewed studies. Various tests were applied in the first trimester of pregnancy to predict the development of preeclampsia. The most commonly used biomarkers were uterine artery pulsatility index, pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A), adiponectin, human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) hormone and inhibin-A. Other tests were used in only one or two studies. Based on this review, a combination of markers should be evaluated for the identification of high risk women. Novel methods measuring multiple markers will hopefully facilitate the development of clinically effective screening programs in the future. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.

Life prediction and mechanical reliability of NT551 silicon nitride

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Andrews, Mark Jay

The inert strength and fatigue performance of a diesel engine exhaust valve made from silicon nitride (Si3N4) ceramic were assessed. The Si3N4 characterized in this study was manufactured by Saint Gobain/Norton Industrial Ceramics and was designated as NT551. The evaluation was made utilizing a probabilistic life prediction algorithm that combined censored test specimen strength data with a Weibull distribution function and the stress field of the ceramic valve obtained from finite element analysis. The major assumptions of the life prediction algorithm are that the bulk ceramic material is isotropic and homogeneous and that the strength-limiting flaws are uniformly distributed. The results from mechanical testing indicated that NT551 was not a homogeneous ceramic and that its strength were functions of temperature, loading rate, and machining orientation. Fractographic analysis identified four different failure modes; 2 were identified as inhomogeneities that were located throughout the bulk of NT551 and were due to processing operations. The fractographic analysis concluded that the strength degradation of NT551 observed from the temperature and loading rate test parameters was due to a change of state that occurred in its secondary phase. Pristine and engine-tested valves made from NT551 were loaded to failure and the inert strengths were obtained. Fractographic analysis of the valves identified the same four failure mechanisms as found with the test specimens. The fatigue performance and the inert strength of the Si3N 4 valves were assessed from censored and uncensored test specimen strength data, respectively. The inert strength failure probability predictions were compared to the inert strength of the Si3N4 valves. The inert strength failure probability predictions were more conservative than the strength of the valves. The lack of correlation between predicted and actual valve strength was due to the nonuniform distribution of inhomogeneities present in NT551. For the same reasons, the predicted and actual fatigue performance did not correlate well. The results of this study should not be considered a limitation of the life prediction algorithm but emphasize the requirement that ceramics be homogeneous and strength-limiting flaws uniformly distributed as a perquisite for accurate life prediction and reliability analyses.

Study of indoor radon distribution using measurements and CFD modeling.

PubMed

Chauhan, Neetika; Chauhan, R P; Joshi, M; Agarwal, T K; Aggarwal, Praveen; Sahoo, B K

2014-10-01

Measurement and/or prediction of indoor radon ((222)Rn) concentration are important due to the impact of radon on indoor air quality and consequent inhalation hazard. In recent times, computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based modeling has become the cost effective replacement of experimental methods for the prediction and visualization of indoor pollutant distribution. The aim of this study is to implement CFD based modeling for studying indoor radon gas distribution. This study focuses on comparison of experimentally measured and CFD modeling predicted spatial distribution of radon concentration for a model test room. The key inputs for simulation viz. radon exhalation rate and ventilation rate were measured as a part of this study. Validation experiments were performed by measuring radon concentration at different locations of test room using active (continuous radon monitor) and passive (pin-hole dosimeters) techniques. Modeling predictions have been found to be reasonably matching with the measurement results. The validated model can be used to understand and study factors affecting indoor radon distribution for more realistic indoor environment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development of Detonation Modeling Capabilities for Rocket Test Facilities: Hydrogen-Oxygen-Nitrogen Mixtures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Allgood, Daniel C.

2016-01-01

The objective of the presented work was to develop validated computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based methodologies for predicting propellant detonations and their associated blast environments. Applications of interest were scenarios relevant to rocket propulsion test and launch facilities. All model development was conducted within the framework of the Loci/CHEM CFD tool due to its reliability and robustness in predicting high-speed combusting flow-fields associated with rocket engines and plumes. During the course of the project, verification and validation studies were completed for hydrogen-fueled detonation phenomena such as shock-induced combustion, confined detonation waves, vapor cloud explosions, and deflagration-to-detonation transition (DDT) processes. The DDT validation cases included predicting flame acceleration mechanisms associated with turbulent flame-jets and flow-obstacles. Excellent comparison between test data and model predictions were observed. The proposed CFD methodology was then successfully applied to model a detonation event that occurred during liquid oxygen/gaseous hydrogen rocket diffuser testing at NASA Stennis Space Center.

Comparison and integration of deleteriousness prediction methods for nonsynonymous SNVs in whole exome sequencing studies

PubMed Central

Dong, Chengliang; Wei, Peng; Jian, Xueqiu; Gibbs, Richard; Boerwinkle, Eric; Wang, Kai; Liu, Xiaoming

2015-01-01

Accurate deleteriousness prediction for nonsynonymous variants is crucial for distinguishing pathogenic mutations from background polymorphisms in whole exome sequencing (WES) studies. Although many deleteriousness prediction methods have been developed, their prediction results are sometimes inconsistent with each other and their relative merits are still unclear in practical applications. To address these issues, we comprehensively evaluated the predictive performance of 18 current deleteriousness-scoring methods, including 11 function prediction scores (PolyPhen-2, SIFT, MutationTaster, Mutation Assessor, FATHMM, LRT, PANTHER, PhD-SNP, SNAP, SNPs&GO and MutPred), 3 conservation scores (GERP++, SiPhy and PhyloP) and 4 ensemble scores (CADD, PON-P, KGGSeq and CONDEL). We found that FATHMM and KGGSeq had the highest discriminative power among independent scores and ensemble scores, respectively. Moreover, to ensure unbiased performance evaluation of these prediction scores, we manually collected three distinct testing datasets, on which no current prediction scores were tuned. In addition, we developed two new ensemble scores that integrate nine independent scores and allele frequency. Our scores achieved the highest discriminative power compared with all the deleteriousness prediction scores tested and showed low false-positive prediction rate for benign yet rare nonsynonymous variants, which demonstrated the value of combining information from multiple orthologous approaches. Finally, to facilitate variant prioritization in WES studies, we have pre-computed our ensemble scores for 87 347 044 possible variants in the whole-exome and made them publicly available through the ANNOVAR software and the dbNSFP database. PMID:25552646

Temporal Sensitivity Measured Shortly After Cochlear Implantation Predicts 6-Month Speech Recognition Outcome.

PubMed

Erb, Julia; Ludwig, Alexandra Annemarie; Kunke, Dunja; Fuchs, Michael; Obleser, Jonas

2018-04-24

Psychoacoustic tests assessed shortly after cochlear implantation are useful predictors of the rehabilitative speech outcome. While largely independent, both spectral and temporal resolution tests are important to provide an accurate prediction of speech recognition. However, rapid tests of temporal sensitivity are currently lacking. Here, we propose a simple amplitude modulation rate discrimination (AMRD) paradigm that is validated by predicting future speech recognition in adult cochlear implant (CI) patients. In 34 newly implanted patients, we used an adaptive AMRD paradigm, where broadband noise was modulated at the speech-relevant rate of ~4 Hz. In a longitudinal study, speech recognition in quiet was assessed using the closed-set Freiburger number test shortly after cochlear implantation (t0) as well as the open-set Freiburger monosyllabic word test 6 months later (t6). Both AMRD thresholds at t0 (r = -0.51) and speech recognition scores at t0 (r = 0.56) predicted speech recognition scores at t6. However, AMRD and speech recognition at t0 were uncorrelated, suggesting that those measures capture partially distinct perceptual abilities. A multiple regression model predicting 6-month speech recognition outcome with deafness duration and speech recognition at t0 improved from adjusted R = 0.30 to adjusted R = 0.44 when AMRD threshold was added as a predictor. These findings identify AMRD thresholds as a reliable, nonredundant predictor above and beyond established speech tests for CI outcome. This AMRD test could potentially be developed into a rapid clinical temporal-resolution test to be integrated into the postoperative test battery to improve the reliability of speech outcome prognosis.

A comparative study of the typhidot (Dot-EIA) and Widal tests in blood culture positive cases of typhoid fever.

PubMed

Khoharo, Haji Khan

2011-07-01

Seventy-six blood culture positive typhoid cases and forty-eight controls were studied. The typhidot test was positive in 74 (97.36%) cases, with a sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value of 96%, 89.5%, and 95%, respectively, compared to the Widal test which was positive in 56 (73.68%) cases with a sensitivity, specificity, and positive predictive value of 72%, 87%, and 87%, respectively (P = 0.001). In the control group, seven (14.5%) cases tested positive for the Widal test and two (4.16%) for the typhidot (P = 0.001), yielding the sensitivity and specificity for the Widal test and the typhidot test of 63% and 83%, and 85% and 97%, respectively. We conclude that the Dot-EIA (enzyme immunoassay; typhidot) is a more sensitive and specific test which is easy to perform and more reliable compared to the Widal test and that it is useful in early therapy.

Comparative study of four physical performance measures as predictors of death, incident disability, and falls in unselected older persons: the insufficienza Cardiaca negli Anziani Residenti a Dicomano Study.

PubMed

Minneci, Cristina; Mello, Anna Maria; Mossello, Enrico; Baldasseroni, Samuele; Macchi, Loredana; Cipolletti, Stefano; Marchionni, Niccolò; Di Bari, Mauro

2015-01-01

To compare the ability of the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), 4-m walk test (4mWT), 6-minute walk test (6MWT), and handgrip strength to predict mortality, incident disability, worsening mobility, and falls in older community dwellers. Cohort study. Population-based. Individuals aged 65 and older n = 561) without prevalent basic activity of daily living (ADL) disability participating. Separate logistic regression models were developed to predict incident ADL disability, worsening mobility, and falls in 3 years, and Cox regression models were used to assess 7-year risk of death as a function of the four tests, adjusting for covariates. Performance tests were reciprocally correlated at baseline. After 3 years, 33 (7.3%) of 453 participants reexamined were disabled in ADLs, 87 (20%) had worsening mobility, and 99 (22%) reported falls. Of the 561 baseline participants, 141 (25%) died over the 7 years. All measures predicted incident ADL disability, with adjusted odds ratios (ORs) per unit increase of 0.85 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.77-0.93) for handgrip strength, 0.08 (95% CI = 0.02-0.36) for 4mWT, 0.74 (95% CI = 0.61-0.89) for SPPB, and 0.993 (95% CI = 0.988-0.997) for 6MWT. Handgrip strength (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.83-0.93), 4mWT (OR = 0.33, 95% CI = 0.11-0.94), and SPPB (OR = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.71-0.93) predicted worsening mobility. No measure predicted falls; only SPPB (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.92, 95% CI = 0.85-0.997) and 6MWT (HR = 0.997, 95% CI = 0.995-0.999) predicted death. Performance measures are independent predictors of relevant health outcomes, with the exception of falls. Because SPPB is easily applied and is the only measure predicting incident ADL disability, worsening mobility, and death, it is preferable to the other tests. © 2015, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2015, The American Geriatrics Society.

Using Eighth Grade Georgia Criterion-Referenced Competency Tests to Predict Student Achievement on the Georgia End of Course Tests

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Darnell, Janice Marie

2012-01-01

The purpose of this correlational study was to examine Georgia's Criterion-Referenced Competency Test (CRCT) scores of 8th grade students and End of Course Test (EOCT) scores of the same students as 9th graders in the areas of language arts and mathematics to test the theory that a relationship exists between the two tests. The study also examined…

Value of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein assays in predicting atrial fibrillation recurrence: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Yo, Chia-Hung; Lee, Si-Huei; Chang, Shy-Shin; Lee, Matthew Chien-Hung; Lee, Chien-Chang

2014-01-01

Objectives We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies on high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) assays to see whether these tests are predictive of atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after cardioversion. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources PubMed, EMBASE and Cochrane databases as well as a hand search of the reference lists in the retrieved articles from inception to December 2013. Study eligibility criteria This review selected observational studies in which the measurements of serum CRP were used to predict AF recurrence. An hs-CRP assay was defined as any CRP test capable of measuring serum CRP to below 0.6 mg/dL. Primary and secondary outcome measures We summarised test performance characteristics with the use of forest plots, hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves and bivariate random effects models. Meta-regression analysis was performed to explore the source of heterogeneity. Results We included nine qualifying studies comprising a total of 347 patients with AF recurrence and 335 controls. A CRP level higher than the optimal cut-off point was an independent predictor of AF recurrence after cardioversion (summary adjusted OR: 3.33; 95% CI 2.10 to 5.28). The estimated pooled sensitivity and specificity for hs-CRP was 71.0% (95% CI 63% to 78%) and 72.0% (61% to 81%), respectively. Most studies used a CRP cut-off point of 1.9 mg/L to predict long-term AF recurrence (77% sensitivity, 65% specificity), and 3 mg/L to predict short-term AF recurrence (73% sensitivity, 71% specificity). Conclusions hs-CRP assays are moderately accurate in predicting AF recurrence after successful cardioversion. PMID:24556243

Radiomics biomarkers for accurate tumor progression prediction of oropharyngeal cancer

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hadjiiski, Lubomir; Chan, Heang-Ping; Cha, Kenny H.; Srinivasan, Ashok; Wei, Jun; Zhou, Chuan; Prince, Mark; Papagerakis, Silvana

2017-03-01

Accurate tumor progression prediction for oropharyngeal cancers is crucial for identifying patients who would best be treated with optimized treatment and therefore minimize the risk of under- or over-treatment. An objective decision support system that can merge the available radiomics, histopathologic and molecular biomarkers in a predictive model based on statistical outcomes of previous cases and machine learning may assist clinicians in making more accurate assessment of oropharyngeal tumor progression. In this study, we evaluated the feasibility of developing individual and combined predictive models based on quantitative image analysis from radiomics, histopathology and molecular biomarkers for oropharyngeal tumor progression prediction. With IRB approval, 31, 84, and 127 patients with head and neck CT (CT-HN), tumor tissue microarrays (TMAs) and molecular biomarker expressions, respectively, were collected. For 8 of the patients all 3 types of biomarkers were available and they were sequestered in a test set. The CT-HN lesions were automatically segmented using our level sets based method. Morphological, texture and molecular based features were extracted from CT-HN and TMA images, and selected features were merged by a neural network. The classification accuracy was quantified using the area under the ROC curve (AUC). Test AUCs of 0.87, 0.74, and 0.71 were obtained with the individual predictive models based on radiomics, histopathologic, and molecular features, respectively. Combining the radiomics and molecular models increased the test AUC to 0.90. Combining all 3 models increased the test AUC further to 0.94. This preliminary study demonstrates that the individual domains of biomarkers are useful and the integrated multi-domain approach is most promising for tumor progression prediction.

Using the Theory of Planned Behavior to predict HPV vaccination intentions of college men.

PubMed

Catalano, Hannah Priest; Knowlden, Adam P; Birch, David A; Leeper, James D; Paschal, Angelia M; Usdan, Stuart L

2017-04-01

The purpose of this study was to test Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) constructs in predicting human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination behavioral intentions of vaccine-eligible college men. Participants were unvaccinated college men aged 18-26 years attending a large public university in the southeastern United States during Spring 2015. A nonexperimental, cross-sectional study design was employed. Instrumentation comprised a qualitative elicitation study, expert panel review, pilot test, test-retest, and internal consistency, construct validity, and predictive validity assessments using data collected from an online self-report questionnaire. The sample consisted of 256 college men, and the final structural model exhibited acceptable fit of the data. Attitude toward the behavior (β = .169) and subjective norm (β = 0.667) were significant predictors of behavioral intention, accounting for 58% of its variance. Practitioners may utilize this instrument for the development and evaluation of TPB-based interventions to increase HPV vaccination intentions of undergraduate college men.

Bioclinical Test to Predict Nephropathia Epidemica Severity at Hospital Admission.

PubMed

Hentzien, Maxime; Mestrallet, Stéphanie; Halin, Pascale; Pannet, Laure-Anne; Lebrun, Delphine; Dramé, Moustapha; Bani-Sadr, Firouzé; Galempoix, Jean-Marc; Strady, Christophe; Reynes, Jean-Marc; Penalba, Christian; Servettaz, Amélie

2018-06-01

We conducted a multicenter, retrospective cohort study of hospitalized patients with serologically proven nephropathia epidemica (NE) living in Ardennes Department, France, during 2000-2014 to develop a bioclinical test predictive of severe disease. Among 205 patients, 45 (22.0%) had severe NE. We found the following factors predictive of severe NE: nephrotoxic drug exposure (p = 0.005, point value 10); visual disorders (p = 0.02, point value 8); microscopic or macroscopic hematuria (p = 0.04, point value 7); leukocyte count >10 × 10 9 cells/L (p = 0.01, point value 9); and thrombocytopenia <90 × 10 9 /L (p = 0.003, point value 11). When point values for each factor were summed, we found a score of <10 identified low-risk patients (3.3% had severe disease), and a score >20 identified high-risk patients (45.3% had severe disease). If validated in future studies, this test could be used to stratify patients by severity in research studies and in clinical practice.

Simple Mindreading Abilities Predict Complex Theory of Mind: Developmental Delay in Autism Spectrum Disorders

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pino, Maria Chiara; Mazza, Monica; Mariano, Melania; Peretti, Sara; Dimitriou, Dagmara; Masedu, Francesco; Valenti, Marco; Franco, Fabia

2017-01-01

Theory of mind (ToM) is impaired in individuals with autism spectrum disorders (ASD). The aims of this study were to: (i) examine the developmental trajectories of ToM abilities in two different mentalizing tasks in children with ASD compared to TD children; and (ii) to assess if a ToM simple test known as eyes-test could predict performance on…

Incremental Validity of the WJ III COG: Limited Predictive Effects beyond the GIA-E

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

McGill, Ryan J.; Busse, R. T.

2015-01-01

This study is an examination of the incremental validity of Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) broad clusters from the Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Cognitive Abilities (WJ III COG) for predicting scores on the Woodcock-Johnson III Tests of Achievement (WJ III ACH). The participants were children and adolescents, ages 6-18 (n = 4,722), drawn from the WJ…

Evaluating weather factors and material response during outdoor exposure to determine accelerated test protocols for predicting service life

Treesearch

R. Sam Williams; Steven Lacher; Corey Halpin; Christopher White

2005-01-01

To develop service life prediction methods for the study of sealants, a fully instrumented weather station was installed at an outdoor test site near Madison, WI. Temperature, relative humidiy, rainfall, ultraviolet (UV) radiation at 18 wavelengths, and wind speed and direction are being continuously measured and stored. The weather data can be integrated over time to...

Testing Reciprocal Longitudinal Relations between Peer Victimization and Depressive Symptoms in Young Adolescents

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tran, Cong V.; Cole, David A.; Weiss, Bahr

2012-01-01

A 2-wave longitudinal study of young adolescents was used to test whether peer victimization predicts depressive symptoms, depressive symptoms predict peer victimization, or the 2 constructs show reciprocal relations. Participants were 598 youths in Grades 3 through 6, ages 8 to 14 (M = 10.9, SD = 1.2) at Wave 1. The sample was 50.7% female and…

Predicting VO[subscript 2max] in College-Aged Participants Using Cycle Ergometry and Perceived Functional Ability

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Nielson, David E.; George, James D.; Vehrs, Pat R.; Hager, Ron L.; Webb, Carrie V.

2010-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a multiple linear regression model to predict treadmill VO[subscript 2max] scores using both exercise and non-exercise data. One hundred five college-aged participants (53 male, 52 female) successfully completed a submaximal cycle ergometer test and a maximal graded exercise test on a motorized treadmill.…

Testing key predictions of the associative account of mirror neurons in humans using multivariate pattern analysis.

PubMed

Oosterhof, Nikolaas N; Wiggett, Alison J; Cross, Emily S

2014-04-01

Cook et al. overstate the evidence supporting their associative account of mirror neurons in humans: most studies do not address a key property, action-specificity that generalizes across the visual and motor domains. Multivariate pattern analysis (MVPA) of neuroimaging data can address this concern, and we illustrate how MVPA can be used to test key predictions of their account.

Predicting Student Success on the Texas Chemistry STAAR Test: A Logistic Regression Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Johnson, William L.; Johnson, Annabel M.; Johnson, Jared

2012-01-01

Background: The context is the new Texas STAAR end-of-course testing program. Purpose: The authors developed a logistic regression model to predict who would pass-or-fail the new Texas chemistry STAAR end-of-course exam. Setting: Robert E. Lee High School (5A) with an enrollment of 2700 students, Tyler, Texas. Date of the study was the 2011-2012…

Predicting Student Grade Point Average at a Community College from Scholastic Aptitude Tests and from Measures Representing Three Constructs in Vroom's Expectancy Theory Model of Motivation.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Malloch, Douglas C.; Michael, William B.

1981-01-01

This study was designed to determine whether an unweighted linear combination of community college students' scores on standardized achievement tests and a measure of motivational constructs derived from Vroom's expectance theory model of motivation was predictive of academic success (grade point average earned during one quarter of an academic…

A Maximal Graded Exercise Test to Accurately Predict VO2max in 18-65-Year-Old Adults

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

George, James D.; Bradshaw, Danielle I.; Hyde, Annette; Vehrs, Pat R.; Hager, Ronald L.; Yanowitz, Frank G.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an age-generalized regression model to predict maximal oxygen uptake (VO sub 2 max) based on a maximal treadmill graded exercise test (GXT; George, 1996). Participants (N = 100), ages 18-65 years, reached a maximal level of exertion (mean plus or minus standard deviation [SD]; maximal heart rate [HR sub…

Self-Control, Social Factors, and Delinquency: A Test of the General Theory of Crime among Adolescents in Hong Kong

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheung, Nicole W. T.; Cheung, Yuet W.

2008-01-01

The objectives of this study were to test the predictive power of self-control theory for delinquency in a Chinese context, and to explore if social factors as predicted in social bonding theory, differential association theory, general strain theory, and labeling theory have effects on delinquency in the presence of self-control. Self-report data…

Predicting termination of atrial fibrillation based on the structure and quantification of the recurrence plot.

PubMed

Sun, Rongrong; Wang, Yuanyuan

2008-11-01

Predicting the spontaneous termination of the atrial fibrillation (AF) leads to not only better understanding of mechanisms of the arrhythmia but also the improved treatment of the sustained AF. A novel method is proposed to characterize the AF based on structure and the quantification of the recurrence plot (RP) to predict the termination of the AF. The RP of the electrocardiogram (ECG) signal is firstly obtained and eleven features are extracted to characterize its three basic patterns. Then the sequential forward search (SFS) algorithm and Davies-Bouldin criterion are utilized to select the feature subset which can predict the AF termination effectively. Finally, the multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network is applied to predict the AF termination. An AF database which includes one training set and two testing sets (A and B) of Holter ECG recordings is studied. Experiment results show that 97% of testing set A and 95% of testing set B are correctly classified. It demonstrates that this algorithm has the ability to predict the spontaneous termination of the AF effectively.

Diagnosis and early detection of CNS-SLE in MRL/lpr mice using peptide microarrays.

PubMed

Williams, Stephanie; Stafford, Phillip; Hoffman, Steven A

2014-06-07

An accurate method that can diagnose and predict lupus and its neuropsychiatric manifestations is essential since currently there are no reliable methods. Autoantibodies to a varied panel of antigens in the body are characteristic of lupus. In this study we investigated whether serum autoantibody binding patterns on random-sequence peptide microarrays (immunosignaturing) can be used for diagnosing and predicting the onset of lupus and its central nervous system (CNS) manifestations. We also tested the techniques for identifying potentially pathogenic autoantibodies in CNS-Lupus. We used the well-characterized MRL/lpr lupus animal model in two studies as a first step to develop and evaluate future studies in humans. In study one we identified possible diagnostic peptides for both lupus and altered behavior in the forced swim test. When comparing the results of study one to that of study two (carried out in a similar manner), we further identified potential peptides that may be diagnostic and predictive of both lupus and altered behavior in the forced swim test. We also characterized five potentially pathogenic brain-reactive autoantibodies, as well as suggested possible brain targets. These results indicate that immunosignaturing could predict and diagnose lupus and its CNS manifestations. It can also be used to characterize pathogenic autoantibodies, which may help to better understand the underlying mechanisms of CNS-Lupus.

Can urine dipstick predict an elevated serum creatinine?

PubMed

Shah, Kaushal; Kilian, Barbara; Hsieh, Wei-Jen; Kyrillou, Emily; Hedge, Vishal; Newman, David H

2010-06-01

Chart review studies have suggested that point-of-care urine dipstick testing may accurately predict an elevation in serum creatinine (Cr). We aimed to prospectively evaluate the test characteristics of proteinuria/hematuria in predicting elevated serum Cr. A prospective, observational study was conducted between March 2007 and June 2008 at 2 affiliated, urban hospitals with an annual emergency department census of 150,000. Patients undergoing laboratory urinalysis, point-of-care urine dipstick, and a serum chemistry panel were enrolled. Trained research assistants collected data on consecutive patients 18 hours per day using preformatted data forms and entry into an anonymized Access (Microsoft, Seattle, Wash) database. Demographic baseline variables including age, sex, chief complaint, vital signs, and source of sample (catheter vs "clean catch") were also collected. An elevated Cr level was defined as greater than 1.3 based on the laboratory reference range. Standard statistical methods were used to calculate diagnostic test operating characteristics of proteinuria or hematuria as a predictor of elevated serum Cr. Five thousand four hundred sixteen subjects were enrolled with 28.3% male and a mean age of 50.2 years. Elevated serum Cr greater than 1.3 mg/dL was found in 13.9% (755/5416) of subjects. The sensitivity of either proteinuria or hematuria for elevated Cr was 82.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 80%-85%) and specificity was 34.4% (95% CI, 33%-36%). Positive predictive value was 16.9% (95% CI, 16%-18%) and negative predictive value was 92.4% (95% CI, 91-94%). The likelihood ratio for a positive test was 1.3 (95% CI, 1.1-1.5), and the likelihood ratio for a negative test was 0.5 (95% CI, 0.3-0.8). Although negative predictive value was high, the presence of proteinuria/hematuria was only moderately predictive of elevated serum Cr level. Copyright (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The predictive validity of a situational judgement test, a clinical problem solving test and the core medical training selection methods for performance in specialty training .

PubMed

Patterson, Fiona; Lopes, Safiatu; Harding, Stephen; Vaux, Emma; Berkin, Liz; Black, David

2017-02-01

The aim of this study was to follow up a sample of physicians who began core medical training (CMT) in 2009. This paper examines the long-term validity of CMT and GP selection methods in predicting performance in the Membership of Royal College of Physicians (MRCP(UK)) examinations. We performed a longitudinal study, examining the extent to which the GP and CMT selection methods (T1) predict performance in the MRCP(UK) examinations (T2). A total of 2,569 applicants from 2008-09 who completed CMT and GP selection methods were included in the study. Looking at MRCP(UK) part 1, part 2 written and PACES scores, both CMT and GP selection methods show evidence of predictive validity for the outcome variables, and hierarchical regressions show the GP methods add significant value to the CMT selection process. CMT selection methods predict performance in important outcomes and have good evidence of validity; the GP methods may have an additional role alongside the CMT selection methods. © Royal College of Physicians 2017. All rights reserved.

Asymptomatic bacteriuria in pregnant women attending Boo-Ali Hospital Tehran Iran: Urine analysis vs. urine culture.

PubMed

Etminan-Bakhsh, Mina; Tadi, Sima; Darabi, Roksana

2017-11-01

Asymptomatic bacteriuria is one of the common problems in pregnancy. Asymptomatic bacteriuria is associated with pyelonephritis, preterm labor and low birth weight infants. The physiological and anatomical changes in pregnancy facilitate urinary tract infection (UTI) during pregnancy. Several tests are available for diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. The urine culture is a gold standard diagnostic test for asymptomatic bacteriuria but it is expensive and time-consuming. Screening methods may be useful in detecting high-risk pregnant women for asymptomatic bacteriuria. The aim of the present study was to compare urine analysis as a rapid screening test to urine culture in diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. A total of 123 pregnant women attending the obstetrics clinic of Boo-Ali hospital in Tehran, Iran from March 2013 to September 2014 were included in the present diagnostic cross-sectional study. One hundred twenty three mid-stream urine samples were inoculated into cultures and were processed by dipstick (nitrite test and leucocyte esterase test) and microscopic pus cell count. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of nitrite test, leucocyte esterase test and microscopic pus cell count were compared with urine culture in diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria by using SPSS version 19. Of 123 urine samples, significant asymptomatic bacteriuria (≥10 4 cfu/Ml) was detected in 8 (6.5%) subjects. The sensitivity and specificity of nitrite test were 37% and 100% respectively. The sensitivity of pus cell count alone and leucocyte esterase test alone were 100% but the specificity of them were 64% and 65% respectively. We found high negative predictive value by Pus cell count and the leucocyte esterase test (100%) and low positive predictive value by them (16% and 17% respectively). Urine culture is the most useful test for diagnosis of asymptomatic bacteriuria. None of our screening tests had a sensitivity and specificity of 100%, whereas we can only refer the pregnant women with positive leucocyte esterase test and significant pyuria to the urine culture.

Validation of CRIB II for prediction of mortality in premature babies.

PubMed

Rastogi, Pallav Kumar; Sreenivas, V; Kumar, Nirmal

2010-02-01

Validation of Clinical Risk Index for Babies (CRIB II) score in predicting the neonatal mortality in preterm neonates < or = 32 weeks gestational age. Prospective cohort study. Tertiary care neonatal unit. 86 consecutively born preterm neonates with gestational age < or = 32 weeks. The five variables related to CRIB II were recorded within the first hour of admission for data analysis. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to check the accuracy of the mortality prediction. HL Goodness of fit test was used to see the discrepancy between observed and expected outcomes. A total of 86 neonates (males 59.6% mean birthweight: 1228 +/- 398 grams; mean gestational age: 28.3 +/- 2.4 weeks) were enrolled in the study, of which 17 (19.8%) left hospital against medical advice (LAMA) before reaching the study end point. Among 69 neonates completing the study, 24 (34.8%) had adverse outcome during hospital stay and 45 (65.2%) had favorable outcome. CRIB II correctly predicted adverse outcome in 90.3% (Hosmer Lemeshow goodness of fit test P=0.6). Area under curve (AUC) for CRIB II was 0.9032. In intention to treat analysis with LAMA cases included as survivors, the mortality prediction was 87%. If these were included as having died then mortality prediction was 83.1%. The CRIB II score was found to be a good predictive instrument for mortality in preterm infants < or = 32 weeks gestation.

Could Fractional Exhaled Nitric Oxide Test be Useful in Predicting Inhaled Corticosteroid Responsiveness in Chronic Cough? A Systematic Review.

PubMed

Song, Woo-Jung; Won, Ha-Kyeong; Moon, Sung-Do; Chung, Soo-Jie; Kang, Sung-Yoon; Sohn, Kyoung-Hee; Kim, Ju-Young; Kim, Byung-Keun; Lim, Kyung-Hwan; Kim, Mi-Yeong; Yang, Min-Suk; Park, Heung-Woo; Chang, Yoon-Seok; Lee, Byung-Jae; Morice, Alyn H; Cho, Sang-Heon

Fractional exhaled nitric oxide (Feno) is a safe and convenient test for assessing T H 2 airway inflammation, which is potentially useful in the management of patients with chronic cough. To summarize the current evidence on the diagnostic usefulness of Feno for predicting inhaled corticosteroid (ICS) responsiveness in patients with chronic cough. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify articles published in peer-reviewed journals up to February 2015, without language restriction. We included studies that reported the usefulness of Feno (index test) for predicting ICS responsiveness (reference standard) in patients with chronic cough (target condition). The data were extracted to construct a 2 × 2 accuracy table. Study quality was assessed with Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2. We identified 5 original studies (2 prospective and 3 retrospective studies). We identified considerable heterogeneities in study design and outcome definitions, and thus were unable to perform a meta-analysis. The proportion of ICS responders ranged from 44% to 59%. Sensitivity and specificity ranged from 53% to 90%, and from 63% to 97%, respectively. The reported area under the curve ranged from about 0.60 to 0.87; however, studies with a prospective design and a lower prevalence of asthma had lower area under the curve values. None measured placebo effects or objective cough frequency. We did not find strong evidence to support the use of Feno tests for predicting ICS responsiveness in chronic cough. Further studies need to have a randomized, placebo-controlled design, and should use validated measurement tools for cough. Standardization would facilitate the development of clinical evidence. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Contextual match and cue-independence of retrieval-induced forgetting: Testing the prediction of the model by Norman, Newman, and Detre (2007).

PubMed

Hanczakowski, Maciej; Mazzoni, Giuliana

2013-05-01

Retrieval-induced forgetting (RIF) is the finding of impaired memory performance for information stored in long-term memory due to retrieval of a related set of information. This phenomenon is often assigned to operations of a specialized mechanism recruited to resolve interference during retrieval by deactivating competing memory representations. This inhibitory account is supported by, among others, findings showing that RIF occurs with independent cues not used during retrieval practice. However, these findings are not always consistent. Recently, Norman, Newman, and Detre (2007) have proposed a model that aims at resolving discrepancies concerning cue-independence of RIF. The model predicts that RIF should be present with independent cues when episodic associations are created between independent cues and their targets in the same episodic context that is later used to cue memory during retrieval practice. In the present study we aimed to test this prediction. We associated studied items with semantically unrelated words during the main study phase of the retrieval practice paradigm, and we tested memory with both cues used during retrieval practice (Experiment 2) and episodic associates serving as independent cues (Experiments 3a and 3b). Although RIF was present when the same cues were used during retrieval practice and a final test, contrary to the prediction formulated by Norman et al., RIF failed to emerge when episodic associates were employed as independent cues.

Comparison between the lumbar infusion and CSF tap tests to predict outcome after shunt surgery in suspected normal pressure hydrocephalus

PubMed Central

Kahlon, B; Sundbarg, G; Rehncrona, S

2002-01-01

Objective: To compare the lumbar infusion test and the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tap test for predicting the outcome of shunt surgery in patients with suspected normal pressure hydrocephalus. Methods: 68 patients with suspected normal pressure hydrocephalus were studied. The absence of preceding history indicated idiopathic disease in 75% of these. All patients were assessed twice with walking and psychometric tests before lumbar infusion test and tap test assessments. The lumbar infusion test was done using a constant infusion rate (0.80 ml/min) and regarded as positive if the steady state CSF plateau pressure reached levels of > 22 mm Hg (resistance to outflow > 14 mm Hg/ml/min). The tap test was regarded as positive if two or more of four different test items improved after CSF removal. As the variability in baseline test results was large, the better of two evaluations was used in comparisons with the results after CSF removal, as well as to evaluate the outcome after shunt surgery. Only patients with a positive lumbar infusion test or a positive tap test had surgery. Results: The results of the CSF tap test and the lumbar infusion test agreed in only 45% of the patients. Of the total cohort, 47 (69%) had positive test results and were operated on; 45 (96%) of these reported subjective improvement, and postoperative assessments verified the improvements in 38 (81%). Improvements were highly significant in walking, memory, and reaction time tests (p < 0.001). Most of the patients improved by surgery (84%) were selected by a positive lumbar infusion test, and only 42% by a positive tap test. Positive predictive values were 80% for lumbar infusion test and 94% for tap test. The false negative predictions in the operated group were much higher (58%) with the tap test than with the lumbar infusion test (16%). Conclusions: Both the lumbar infusion test and the tap test can predict a positive outcome of shunt operations in unselected patients with suspected normal pressure hydrocephalus. The two tests are complementary and should be used together for optimal patient selection. PMID:12438477

Comparison between the lumbar infusion and CSF tap tests to predict outcome after shunt surgery in suspected normal pressure hydrocephalus.

PubMed

Kahlon, B; Sundbärg, G; Rehncrona, S

2002-12-01

To compare the lumbar infusion test and the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) tap test for predicting the outcome of shunt surgery in patients with suspected normal pressure hydrocephalus. 68 patients with suspected normal pressure hydrocephalus were studied. The absence of preceding history indicated idiopathic disease in 75% of these. All patients were assessed twice with walking and psychometric tests before lumbar infusion test and tap test assessments. The lumbar infusion test was done using a constant infusion rate (0.80 ml/min) and regarded as positive if the steady state CSF plateau pressure reached levels of > 22 mm Hg (resistance to outflow > 14 mm Hg/ml/min). The tap test was regarded as positive if two or more of four different test items improved after CSF removal. As the variability in baseline test results was large, the better of two evaluations was used in comparisons with the results after CSF removal, as well as to evaluate the outcome after shunt surgery. Only patients with a positive lumbar infusion test or a positive tap test had surgery. The results of the CSF tap test and the lumbar infusion test agreed in only 45% of the patients. Of the total cohort, 47 (69%) had positive test results and were operated on; 45 (96%) of these reported subjective improvement, and postoperative assessments verified the improvements in 38 (81%). Improvements were highly significant in walking, memory, and reaction time tests (p < 0.001). Most of the patients improved by surgery (84%) were selected by a positive lumbar infusion test, and only 42% by a positive tap test. Positive predictive values were 80% for lumbar infusion test and 94% for tap test. The false negative predictions in the operated group were much higher (58%) with the tap test than with the lumbar infusion test (16%). Both the lumbar infusion test and the tap test can predict a positive outcome of shunt operations in unselected patients with suspected normal pressure hydrocephalus. The two tests are complementary and should be used together for optimal patient selection.

Mobility stress test approach to predicting frailty, disability, and mortality in high-functioning older adults.

PubMed

Verghese, Joe; Holtzer, Roee; Lipton, Richard B; Wang, Cuiling

2012-10-01

To examine the validity of the Walking While Talking Test (WWT), a mobility stress test, to predict frailty, disability, and death in high-functioning older adults. Prospective cohort study. Community sample. Six hundred thirty-one community-residing adults aged 70 and older participating in the Einstein Aging Study (mean follow-up 32 months). High-functioning status at baseline was defined as absence of disability and dementia and normal walking speeds. Hazard ratios (HRs) for frailty, disability, and all-cause mortality. Frailty was defined as presence of three out of the following five attributes: weight loss, weakness, exhaustion, low physical activity, and slow gait. The predictive validity of the WWT was also compared with that of the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) for study outcomes. Two hundred eighteen participants developed frailty, 88 developed disability, and 49 died. Each 10-cm/s decrease in WWT speed was associated with greater risk of frailty (HR = 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.06-1.18), disability (HR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.03-1.23), and mortality (HR = 1.13, 95% CI = 1.01-1.27). Most associations remained robust even after accounting for potential confounders and gait speed. Comparisons of HRs and model fit suggest that the WWT may better predict frailty whereas SPPB may better predict disability. Mobility stress tests such as the WWT are robust predictors of risk of frailty, disability, and mortality in high-functioning older adults. © 2012, Copyright the Authors Journal compilation © 2012, The American Geriatrics Society.

Prediction of biodegradability of aromatics in water using QSAR modeling.

PubMed

Cvetnic, Matija; Juretic Perisic, Daria; Kovacic, Marin; Kusic, Hrvoje; Dermadi, Jasna; Horvat, Sanja; Bolanca, Tomislav; Marin, Vedrana; Karamanis, Panaghiotis; Loncaric Bozic, Ana

2017-05-01

The study was aimed at developing models for predicting the biodegradability of aromatic water pollutants. For that purpose, 36 single-benzene ring compounds, with different type, number and position of substituents, were used. The biodegradability was estimated according to the ratio of the biochemical (BOD 5 ) and chemical (COD) oxygen demand values determined for parent compounds ((BOD 5 /COD) 0 ), as well as for their reaction mixtures in half-life achieved by UV-C/H 2 O 2 process ((BOD 5 /COD) t1/2 ). The models correlating biodegradability and molecular structure characteristics of studied pollutants were derived using quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) principles and tools. Upon derivation of the models and calibration on the training and subsequent testing on the test set, 3- and 5-variable models were selected as the most predictive for (BOD 5 /COD) 0 and (BOD 5 /COD) t1/2 , respectively, according to the values of statistical parameters R 2 and Q 2 . Hence, 3-variable model predicting (BOD 5 /COD) 0 possessed R 2 =0.863 and Q 2 =0.799 for training set, and R 2 =0.710 for test set, while 5-variable model predicting (BOD 5 /COD) 1/2 possessed R 2 =0.886 and Q 2 =0.788 for training set, and R 2 =0.564 for test set. The selected models are interpretable and transparent, reflecting key structural features that influence targeted biodegradability and can be correlated with the degradation mechanisms of studied compounds by UV-C/H 2 O 2 . Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Experience using the «Shetty test» for initial foot and ankle fracture screening in the Emergency Department.

PubMed

Ojeda-Jiménez, J; Méndez-Ojeda, M M; Martín-Vélez, P; Tejero-García, S; Pais-Brito, J L; Herrera-Pérez, M

2018-03-20

The indiscriminate practice of radiographs for foot and ankle injuries is not justified and numerous studies have corroborated the usefulness of clinical screening tests such as the Ottawa Ankle Rules. The aim of our study is to clinically validate the so-called Shetty Test in our area. A cross-sectional observational study by applying the Shetty test to patients seen in the Emergency Department. We enrolled 100 patients with an average age of 39.25 (16-86). The Shetty test was positive on 14 occasions. Subsequent radiography revealed a fracture in 10 cases: 4 were false positives. The test was negative in the remaining 86 patients and radiography confirmed the absence of fracture (with sensitivity of 100% and specificity of 95.56%, positive predictive value of 71.40%, and negative predictive value of 100%). The Shetty test is a valid clinical screening tool to decide whether simple radiography is indicated for foot and ankle injuries. It is a simple, quick and reproducible test. Copyright © 2018 SECOT. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Growth trajectories and intellectual abilities in young adulthood: The Helsinki Birth Cohort study.

PubMed

Räikkönen, Katri; Forsén, Tom; Henriksson, Markus; Kajantie, Eero; Heinonen, Kati; Pesonen, Anu-Katriina; Leskinen, Jukka T; Laaksonen, Ilmo; Osmond, Clive; Barker, David J P; Eriksson, Johan G

2009-08-15

Slow childhood growth is associated with poorer intellectual ability. The critical periods of growth remain uncertain. Among 2,786 Finnish male military conscripts (1952-1972) born in 1934-1944, the authors tested how specific growth periods from birth to age 20 years predicted verbal, visuospatial, and arithmetic abilities at age 20. Small head circumference at birth predicted poorer verbal, visuospatial, and arithmetic abilities. The latter 2 measures were also associated with lower weight and body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)) at birth (for a 1-standard-deviation (SD) decrease in test score per SD decrease in body size > or = 0.05, P's < 0.04). Slow linear growth and weight gain between birth and age 6 months, between ages 6 months and 2 years, or both predicted poorer performance on all 3 tests (for a 1-SD decrease in test score per SD decrease in growth > or = 0.05, P's < 0.03). Reduced linear growth between ages 2 and 7 years predicted worse verbal ability, and between age 11 years and conscription it predicted worse performance on all 3 tests. Prenatal brain growth and linear growth up to 2 years after birth form a first critical period for intellectual development. There is a second critical period, specific for verbal development, between ages 2 and 7 years and a third critical period for all 3 tested outcomes during adolescence.

Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction using Bayesian model averaging

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Duan, Qingyun; Ajami, Newsha K.; Gao, Xiaogang; Sorooshian, Soroosh

2007-05-01

Multi-model ensemble strategy is a means to exploit the diversity of skillful predictions from different models. This paper studies the use of Bayesian model averaging (BMA) scheme to develop more skillful and reliable probabilistic hydrologic predictions from multiple competing predictions made by several hydrologic models. BMA is a statistical procedure that infers consensus predictions by weighing individual predictions based on their probabilistic likelihood measures, with the better performing predictions receiving higher weights than the worse performing ones. Furthermore, BMA provides a more reliable description of the total predictive uncertainty than the original ensemble, leading to a sharper and better calibrated probability density function (PDF) for the probabilistic predictions. In this study, a nine-member ensemble of hydrologic predictions was used to test and evaluate the BMA scheme. This ensemble was generated by calibrating three different hydrologic models using three distinct objective functions. These objective functions were chosen in a way that forces the models to capture certain aspects of the hydrograph well (e.g., peaks, mid-flows and low flows). Two sets of numerical experiments were carried out on three test basins in the US to explore the best way of using the BMA scheme. In the first set, a single set of BMA weights was computed to obtain BMA predictions, while the second set employed multiple sets of weights, with distinct sets corresponding to different flow intervals. In both sets, the streamflow values were transformed using Box-Cox transformation to ensure that the probability distribution of the prediction errors is approximately Gaussian. A split sample approach was used to obtain and validate the BMA predictions. The test results showed that BMA scheme has the advantage of generating more skillful and equally reliable probabilistic predictions than original ensemble. The performance of the expected BMA predictions in terms of daily root mean square error (DRMS) and daily absolute mean error (DABS) is generally superior to that of the best individual predictions. Furthermore, the BMA predictions employing multiple sets of weights are generally better than those using single set of weights.

Using built environment characteristics to predict walking for exercise

PubMed Central

Lovasi, Gina S; Moudon, Anne V; Pearson, Amber L; Hurvitz, Philip M; Larson, Eric B; Siscovick, David S; Berke, Ethan M; Lumley, Thomas; Psaty, Bruce M

2008-01-01

Background Environments conducive to walking may help people avoid sedentary lifestyles and associated diseases. Recent studies developed walkability models combining several built environment characteristics to optimally predict walking. Developing and testing such models with the same data could lead to overestimating one's ability to predict walking in an independent sample of the population. More accurate estimates of model fit can be obtained by splitting a single study population into training and validation sets (holdout approach) or through developing and evaluating models in different populations. We used these two approaches to test whether built environment characteristics near the home predict walking for exercise. Study participants lived in western Washington State and were adult members of a health maintenance organization. The physical activity data used in this study were collected by telephone interview and were selected for their relevance to cardiovascular disease. In order to limit confounding by prior health conditions, the sample was restricted to participants in good self-reported health and without a documented history of cardiovascular disease. Results For 1,608 participants meeting the inclusion criteria, the mean age was 64 years, 90 percent were white, 37 percent had a college degree, and 62 percent of participants reported that they walked for exercise. Single built environment characteristics, such as residential density or connectivity, did not significantly predict walking for exercise. Regression models using multiple built environment characteristics to predict walking were not successful at predicting walking for exercise in an independent population sample. In the validation set, none of the logistic models had a C-statistic confidence interval excluding the null value of 0.5, and none of the linear models explained more than one percent of the variance in time spent walking for exercise. We did not detect significant differences in walking for exercise among census areas or postal codes, which were used as proxies for neighborhoods. Conclusion None of the built environment characteristics significantly predicted walking for exercise, nor did combinations of these characteristics predict walking for exercise when tested using a holdout approach. These results reflect a lack of neighborhood-level variation in walking for exercise for the population studied. PMID:18312660

Placental growth factor (alone or in combination with soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1) as an aid to the assessment of women with suspected pre-eclampsia: systematic review and economic analysis.

PubMed

Frampton, Geoff K; Jones, Jeremy; Rose, Micah; Payne, Liz

2016-11-01

Pre-eclampsia (PE) prediction based on blood pressure, presence of protein in the urine, symptoms and laboratory test abnormalities can result in false-positive diagnoses. This may lead to unnecessary antenatal admissions and preterm delivery. Blood tests that measure placental growth factor (PlGF) or the ratio of soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1) to PlGF could aid prediction of PE if either were added to routine clinical assessment or used as a replacement for proteinuria testing. To evaluate the diagnostic accuracy and cost-effectiveness of PlGF-based tests for patients referred to secondary care with suspected PE in weeks 20-37 of pregnancy. Systematic reviews and an economic analysis. Bibliographic databases including MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science and The Cochrane Library and Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects were searched up to July 2015 for English-language references. Conferences, websites, systematic reviews and confidential company submissions were also accessed. Systematic reviews of test accuracy and economic studies were conducted to inform an economic analysis. Test accuracy studies were required to include women with suspected PE and report quantitatively the accuracy of PlGF-based tests; their risk of bias was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies (QUADAS) criteria. The economic studies review had broad eligibility criteria to capture any types of economic analysis; critical appraisal employed standard checklists consistent with National Institute for Health and Care Excellence criteria. Study selection, critical appraisal and data extraction in both reviews were performed by two reviewers. An independent economic analysis was conducted based on a decision tree model, using the best evidence available. The model evaluates costs (2014, GBP) from a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. Given the short analysis time horizon, no discounting was undertaken. Four studies were included in the systematic review of test accuracy: two on Alere's Triage ® PlGF test (Alere, Inc., San Diego, CA, USA) for predicting PE requiring delivery within a specified time and two on Roche Diagnostics' Elecsys ® sFlt-1 to PlGF ratio test (Roche Diagnostics GmbH, Mannheim, Germany) for predicting PE within a specified time. Three studies were included in the systematic review of economic studies, and two confidential company economic analyses were assessed separately. Study heterogeneity precluded meta-analyses of test accuracy or cost-analysis outcomes, so narrative syntheses were conducted to inform the independent economic model. The model predicts that, when supplementing routine clinical assessment for rule-out and rule-in of PE, the two tests would be cost-saving in weeks 20-35 of gestation, and marginally cost-saving in weeks 35-37, but with minuscule impact on quality of life. Length of neonatal intensive care unit stay was the most influential parameter in sensitivity analyses. All other sensitivity analyses had negligible effects on results. No head-to-head comparisons of the tests were identified. No studies investigated accuracy of PlGF-based tests when used as a replacement for proteinuria testing. Test accuracy studies were found to be at high risk of clinical review bias. The Triage and Elecsys tests would save money if added to routine clinical assessment for PE. The magnitude of savings is uncertain, but the tests remain cost-saving under worst-case assumptions. Further research is required to clarify how the test results would be interpreted and applied in clinical practice. This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42015017670. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

A comparison of two adaptive multivariate analysis methods (PLSR and ANN) for winter wheat yield forecasting using Landsat-8 OLI images

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Pengfei; Jing, Qi

2017-02-01

An assumption that the non-linear method is more reasonable than the linear method when canopy reflectance is used to establish the yield prediction model was proposed and tested in this study. For this purpose, partial least squares regression (PLSR) and artificial neural networks (ANN), represented linear and non-linear analysis method, were applied and compared for wheat yield prediction. Multi-period Landsat-8 OLI images were collected at two different wheat growth stages, and a field campaign was conducted to obtain grain yields at selected sampling sites in 2014. The field data were divided into a calibration database and a testing database. Using calibration data, a cross-validation concept was introduced for the PLSR and ANN model construction to prevent over-fitting. All models were tested using the test data. The ANN yield-prediction model produced R2, RMSE and RMSE% values of 0.61, 979 kg ha-1, and 10.38%, respectively, in the testing phase, performing better than the PLSR yield-prediction model, which produced R2, RMSE, and RMSE% values of 0.39, 1211 kg ha-1, and 12.84%, respectively. Non-linear method was suggested as a better method for yield prediction.

Incorporation of in silico biodegradability screening in early drug development--a feasible approach?

PubMed

Steger-Hartmann, Thomas; Länge, Reinhard; Heuck, Klaus

2011-05-01

The concentration of a pharmaceutical found in the environment is determined by the amount used by the patient, the excretion and metabolism pattern, and eventually by its persistence. Biological degradation or persistence of a pharmaceutical is experimentally tested rather late in the development of a pharmaceutical, often shortly before submission of the dossier to regulatory authorities. To investigate whether the aspect of persistence of a compound could be assessed early during drug development, we investigated whether biodegradation of pharmaceuticals could be predicted with the help of in silico tools. To assess the value of in silico prediction, we collected results for the OECD 301 degradation test ("ready biodegradability") of 42 drugs or drug synthesis intermediates and compared them to the prediction of the in silico tool BIOWIN. Of these compounds, 38 were predictable with BIOWIN, which is a module of the Estimation Programs Interface (EPI) Suite™ provided by the US EPA. The program failed to predict the two drugs which proved to be readily biodegradable in the degradation tests. On the other hand, BIOWIN predicted two compounds to be readily biodegradable which, however, proved to be persistent in the test setting. The comparison of experimental data with the predicted one resulted in a specificity of 94% and a sensitivity of 0%. The results of this study do not indicate that application of the biodegradation prediction tool BIOWIN is a feasible approach to assess the ready biodegradability during early drug development.

Fecal immunochemical test for predicting mucosal healing in ulcerative colitis patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Dai, Cong; Jiang, Min; Sun, Ming-Jun; Cao, Qin

2018-05-01

Fecal immunochemical test (FIT) is a promising marker for assessment of inflammatory bowel disease activity. However, the utility of FIT for predicting mucosal healing (MH) of ulcerative colitis (UC) patients has yet to be clearly demonstrated. The objective of our study was to perform a diagnostic test accuracy test meta-analysis evaluating the diagnostic accuracy of FIT in predicting MH of UC patients. We systematically searched the databases from inception to November 2017 that evaluated MH in UC. The methodological quality of each study was assessed according to the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies checklist. The extracted data were pooled using a summary receiver operating characteristic curve model. Random-effects model was used to summarize the diagnostic odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio, and negative likelihood ratio. Six studies comprising 625 UC patients were included in the meta-analysis. The pooled sensitivity and specificity values for predicting MH in UC were 0.77 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.81) and 0.81 (95% CI, 0.76-0.85), respectively. The FIT level had a high rule-in value (positive likelihood ratio, 3.79; 95% CI, 2.85-5.03) and a moderate rule-out value (negative likelihood ratio, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.16-0.43) for predicting MH in UC. The results of the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis (area under the curve, 0.88; standard error of the mean, 0.02) and diagnostic odds ratio (18.08; 95% CI, 9.57-34.13) also revealed improved discrimination for identifying MH in UC with FIT concentration. Our meta-analysis has found that FIT is a simple, reliable non-invasive marker for predicting MH in UC patients. © 2018 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Predicting mental disorders from hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis functioning: a 3-year follow-up in the TRAILS study.

PubMed

Nederhof, E; van Oort, F V A; Bouma, E M C; Laceulle, O M; Oldehinkel, A J; Ormel, J

2015-08-01

Hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal axis functioning, with cortisol as its major output hormone, has been presumed to play a key role in the development of psychopathology. Predicting affective disorders from diurnal cortisol levels has been inconclusive, whereas the predictive value of stress-induced cortisol concentrations has not been studied before. The aim of this study was to predict mental disorders over a 3-year follow-up from awakening and stress-induced cortisol concentrations. Data were used from 561 TRAILS (TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey) participants, a prospective cohort study of Dutch adolescents. Saliva samples were collected at awakening and half an hour later and during a social stress test at age 16. Mental disorders were assessed 3 years later with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI). A lower cortisol awakening response (CAR) marginally significantly predicted new disorders [odds ratio (OR) 0.77, p = 0.06]. A flat recovery slope predicted disorders with a first onset after the experimental session (OR 1.27, p = 0.04). Recovery revealed smaller, non-significant ORs when predicting new onset affective or anxiety disorders, major depressive disorder, or dependence disorders in three separate models, corrected for all other new onsets. Our results suggest that delayed recovery and possibly reduced CAR are indicators of a more general risk status and may be part of a common pathway to psychopathology. Delayed recovery suggests that individuals at risk for mental disorders perceived the social stress test as less controllable and less predictable.

Evaluation of a Singular Value Decomposition Approach for Impact Dynamic Data Correlation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Horta, Lucas G.; Lyle, Karen H.; Lessard, Wendy B.

2003-01-01

Impact dynamic tests are used in the automobile and aircraft industries to assess survivability of occupants during crash, to assert adequacy of the design, and to gain federal certification. Although there is no substitute for experimental tests, analytical models are often developed and used to study alternate test conditions, to conduct trade-off studies, and to improve designs. To validate results from analytical predictions, test and analysis results must be compared to determine the model adequacy. The mathematical approach evaluated in this paper decomposes observed time responses into dominant deformation shapes and their corresponding contribution to the measured response. To correlate results, orthogonality of test and analysis shapes is used as a criterion. Data from an impact test of a composite fuselage is used and compared to finite element predictions. In this example, the impact response was decomposed into multiple shapes but only two dominant shapes explained over 85% of the measured response

Anatomic features of the neck as predictive markers of difficult direct laryngoscopy in men and women: A prospective study

PubMed Central

Chara, Liaskou; Eleftherios, Vouzounerakis; Maria, Moirasgenti; Anastasia, Trikoupi; Chryssoula, Staikou

2014-01-01

Background and Aims: Difficult airway assessment is based on various anatomic parameters of upper airway, much of it being concentrated on oral cavity and the pharyngeal structures. The diagnostic value of tests based on neck anatomy in predicting difficult laryngoscopy was assessed in this prospective, open cohort study. Methods: We studied 341 adult patients scheduled to receive general anaesthesia. Thyromental distance (TMD), sternomental distance (STMD), ratio of height to thyromental distance (RHTMD) and neck circumference (NC) were measured pre-operatively. The laryngoscopic view was classified according to the Cormack–Lehane Grade (1-4). Difficult laryngoscopy was defined as Cormack–Lehane Grade 3 or 4. The optimal cut-off points for each variable were identified by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each test. Multivariate analysis with logistic regression, including all variables, was used to create a predictive model. Comparisons between genders were also performed. Results: Laryngoscopy was difficult in 12.6% of the patients. The cut-off values were: TMD ≤7 cm, STMD ≤15 cm, RHTMD >18.4 and NC >37.5 cm. The RHTMD had the highest sensitivity (88.4%) and NPV (95.2%), while TMD had the highest specificity (83.9%). The area under curve (AUC) for the TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC was 0.63, 0.64, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively. The predictive model exhibited a higher and statistically significant diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.68, P < 0.001). Gender-specific cut-off points improved the predictive accuracy of NC in women (AUC: 0.65). Conclusions: The TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC were found to be poor single predictors of difficult laryngoscopy, while a model including all four variables had a significant predictive accuracy. Among the studied tests, gender-specific cut-off points should be used for NC. PMID:24963183

Anatomic features of the neck as predictive markers of difficult direct laryngoscopy in men and women: A prospective study.

PubMed

Liaskou, Chara; Chara, Liaskou; Vouzounerakis, Eleftherios; Eleftherios, Vouzounerakis; Moirasgenti, Maria; Maria, Moirasgenti; Trikoupi, Anastasia; Anastasia, Trikoupi; Staikou, Chryssoula; Chryssoula, Staikou

2014-03-01

Difficult airway assessment is based on various anatomic parameters of upper airway, much of it being concentrated on oral cavity and the pharyngeal structures. The diagnostic value of tests based on neck anatomy in predicting difficult laryngoscopy was assessed in this prospective, open cohort study. We studied 341 adult patients scheduled to receive general anaesthesia. Thyromental distance (TMD), sternomental distance (STMD), ratio of height to thyromental distance (RHTMD) and neck circumference (NC) were measured pre-operatively. The laryngoscopic view was classified according to the Cormack-Lehane Grade (1-4). Difficult laryngoscopy was defined as Cormack-Lehane Grade 3 or 4. The optimal cut-off points for each variable were identified by using receiver operating characteristic analysis. Sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value and negative predictive value (NPV) were calculated for each test. Multivariate analysis with logistic regression, including all variables, was used to create a predictive model. Comparisons between genders were also performed. Laryngoscopy was difficult in 12.6% of the patients. The cut-off values were: TMD ≤7 cm, STMD ≤15 cm, RHTMD >18.4 and NC >37.5 cm. The RHTMD had the highest sensitivity (88.4%) and NPV (95.2%), while TMD had the highest specificity (83.9%). The area under curve (AUC) for the TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC was 0.63, 0.64, 0.62 and 0.54, respectively. The predictive model exhibited a higher and statistically significant diagnostic accuracy (AUC: 0.68, P < 0.001). Gender-specific cut-off points improved the predictive accuracy of NC in women (AUC: 0.65). The TMD, STMD, RHTMD and NC were found to be poor single predictors of difficult laryngoscopy, while a model including all four variables had a significant predictive accuracy. Among the studied tests, gender-specific cut-off points should be used for NC.

Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kossobokov, V.G.; Healy, J.H.; Dewey, J.W.

1997-01-01

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known as M8. The M8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.

Predictors of Home Radon Testing and Implications for Testing Promotion Programs.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Sandman, Peter M.; Weinstein, Neil D.

1993-01-01

Analysis of 4 New Jersey studies of 3,329 homeowners found that (1) thinking about radon testing is predicted by general radon knowledge; (2) decision to test is related to perceived likelihood of risk; and (3) actual testing is influenced by situational factors such as locating and choosing test kits. (SK)

Predicting fatty acid profiles in blood based on food intake and the FADS1 rs174546 SNP.

PubMed

Hallmann, Jacqueline; Kolossa, Silvia; Gedrich, Kurt; Celis-Morales, Carlos; Forster, Hannah; O'Donovan, Clare B; Woolhead, Clara; Macready, Anna L; Fallaize, Rosalind; Marsaux, Cyril F M; Lambrinou, Christina-Paulina; Mavrogianni, Christina; Moschonis, George; Navas-Carretero, Santiago; San-Cristobal, Rodrigo; Godlewska, Magdalena; Surwiłło, Agnieszka; Mathers, John C; Gibney, Eileen R; Brennan, Lorraine; Walsh, Marianne C; Lovegrove, Julie A; Saris, Wim H M; Manios, Yannis; Martinez, Jose Alfredo; Traczyk, Iwona; Gibney, Michael J; Daniel, Hannelore

2015-12-01

A high intake of n-3 PUFA provides health benefits via changes in the n-6/n-3 ratio in blood. In addition to such dietary PUFAs, variants in the fatty acid desaturase 1 (FADS1) gene are also associated with altered PUFA profiles. We used mathematical modeling to predict levels of PUFA in whole blood, based on multiple hypothesis testing and bootstrapped LASSO selected food items, anthropometric and lifestyle factors, and the rs174546 genotypes in FADS1 from 1607 participants (Food4Me Study). The models were developed using data from the first reported time point (training set) and their predictive power was evaluated using data from the last reported time point (test set). Among other food items, fish, pizza, chicken, and cereals were identified as being associated with the PUFA profiles. Using these food items and the rs174546 genotypes as predictors, models explained 26-43% of the variability in PUFA concentrations in the training set and 22-33% in the test set. Selecting food items using multiple hypothesis testing is a valuable contribution to determine predictors, as our models' predictive power is higher compared to analogue studies. As unique feature, we additionally confirmed our models' power based on a test set. © 2015 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

An Experimental Study of Pressure Oscillation in a Capillary Pumped Loop with Multiple Evaporators and Condensers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ku, Jen-Tung; Hoang, Triem T.

1998-01-01

The heat transport capability of a capillary pumped loop (CPL) is limited by the pressure drop that its evaporator wick can sustain. The pressure drop in a CPL is not constant even under seemingly steady operation, but rather exhibits an oscillatory behavior. A hydrodynamic theory based on a mass-spring-dashpot model was previously developed to predict the pressure oscillation in a CPL with a single evaporator and a single condenser. The theory states that the pressure oscillation is a function of physical dimensions of the CPL components and operating conditions. Experimental data agreed very well with theoretical predictions. The hydrodynamic stability theory has recently been extended to predict the pressure oscillations in CPLs with multiple evaporators and multiple condensers. Concurrently, an experimental study was conducted to verify the theory and to investigate the effects of various parameters on the pressure oscillation. Four evaporators with different wick properties were tested using a test loop containing two condenser plates. The test loop allowed the four evaporators to be tested in a single-pump, two-pump or four-pump configuration, and the two condenser plates to be plumbed either in parallel or in series. Test conditions included varying the power input, the reservoir set point temperature, the condenser sink temperature, and the flow resistance between the reservoir and the loop. Experimental results agreed well with theoretical predictions.

Predictive testing for Huntington's disease: relationship with partners after testing.

PubMed

Decruyenaere, M; Evers-Kiebooms, G; Cloostermans, T; Boogaerts, A; Demyttenaere, K; Dom, R; Fryns, J P

2004-01-01

This study focuses on the partner relationship of tested persons, 5 years after their predictive test result for Huntington's disease (HD). We describe changes in marital status, quality of the relationship, and perceived changes in the relationship. Twenty-six carriers, 14 of their partners, 33 non-carriers, and 17 of their partners participated in the study. Qualitative and quantitative methods were used. For the majority of tested persons (about 70%), the marital status was unchanged 5 years post test. Overall, carriers rated the quality of the relationship higher than their partners did and they perceived more positive changes. Qualitative data show that a test result leading to changed roles may induce significant marital distress. Another consequence of the test may be the changes in dynamics in asymptomatic carrier couples. A pre-test discussion of the possible impact of the test result on the relationship should result in a better preparation for and more understanding of the reactions after testing. Counselling after testing should stimulate an open communication between partners with consideration of needs and anxieties of both partners.

A Study in a New Test Facility on Indoor Annoyance Caused by Sonic Booms

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Rathsam, Jonathan; Loubeau, Alexandra; Klos, Jacob

2012-01-01

A sonic-boom simulator at NASA Langley Research Center has been constructed to research the indoor human response to low-amplitude sonic booms. The research goal is the development of a psychoacoustic model for individual sonic booms to be validated by future community studies. The study in this report assessed the suitability of existing noise metrics for predicting indoor human annoyance. The test signals included a wide range of synthesized and recorded sonic-boom waveforms. Results indicated that no noise metric predicts indoor annoyance to sonic-boom sounds better than Perceived Level, PL. During the study it became apparent that structural vibrations induced by the test signals were contributing to annoyance, so the relationship between sound and vibration at levels of equivalent annoyance has been quantified.

Prediction of postoperative outcome after hepatectomy with a new bedside test for maximal liver function capacity.

PubMed

Stockmann, Martin; Lock, Johan F; Riecke, Björn; Heyne, Karsten; Martus, Peter; Fricke, Michael; Lehmann, Sina; Niehues, Stefan M; Schwabe, Michael; Lemke, Arne-Jörn; Neuhaus, Peter

2009-07-01

To validate the LiMAx test, a new bedside test for the determination of maximal liver function capacity based on C-methacetin kinetics. To investigate the diagnostic performance of different liver function tests and scores including the LiMAx test for the prediction of postoperative outcome after hepatectomy. Liver failure is a major cause of mortality after hepatectomy. Preoperative prediction of residual liver function has been limited so far. Sixty-four patients undergoing hepatectomy were analyzed in a prospective observational study. Volumetric analysis of the liver was carried out using preoperative computed tomography and intraoperative measurements. Perioperative factors associated with morbidity and mortality were analyzed. Cutoff values of the LiMAx test were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic. Residual LiMAx demonstrated an excellent linear correlation with residual liver volume (r = 0.94, P < 0.001) after hepatectomy. The multivariate analysis revealed LiMAx on postoperative day 1 as the only predictor of liver failure (P = 0.003) and mortality (P = 0.004). AUROC for the prediction of liver failure and liver failure related death by the LiMAx test was both 0.99. Preoperative volume/function analysis combining CT volumetry and LiMAx allowed an accurate calculation of the remnant liver function capacity prior to surgery (r = 0.85, P < 0.001). Residual liver function is the major factor influencing the outcome of patients after hepatectomy and can be predicted preoperatively by a combination of LiMAx and CT volumetry.

Mixing-model Sensitivity to Initial Conditions in Hydrodynamic Predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bigelow, Josiah; Silva, Humberto; Truman, C. Randall; Vorobieff, Peter

2017-11-01

Amagat and Dalton mixing-models were studied to compare their thermodynamic prediction of shock states. Numerical simulations with the Sandia National Laboratories shock hydrodynamic code CTH modeled University of New Mexico (UNM) shock tube laboratory experiments shocking a 1:1 molar mixture of helium (He) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) . Five input parameters were varied for sensitivity analysis: driver section pressure, driver section density, test section pressure, test section density, and mixture ratio (mole fraction). We show via incremental Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) analysis that significant differences exist between Amagat and Dalton mixing-model predictions. The differences observed in predicted shock speeds, temperatures, and pressures grow more pronounced with higher shock speeds. Supported by NNSA Grant DE-0002913.

Analysis and experimental evaluation of shunt active power filter for power quality improvement based on predictive direct power control.

PubMed

Aissa, Oualid; Moulahoum, Samir; Colak, Ilhami; Babes, Badreddine; Kabache, Nadir

2017-10-12

This paper discusses the use of the concept of classical and predictive direct power control for shunt active power filter function. These strategies are used to improve the active power filter performance by compensation of the reactive power and the elimination of the harmonic currents drawn by non-linear loads. A theoretical analysis followed by a simulation using MATLAB/Simulink software for the studied techniques has been established. Moreover, two test benches have been carried out using the dSPACE card 1104 for the classic and predictive DPC control to evaluate the studied methods in real time. Obtained results are presented and compared in this paper to confirm the superiority of the predictive technique. To overcome the pollution problems caused by the consumption of fossil fuels, renewable energies are the alternatives recommended to ensure green energy. In the same context, the tested predictive filter can easily be supplied by a renewable energy source that will give its impact to enhance the power quality.

Two-layer convective heating prediction procedures and sensitivities for blunt body reentry vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bouslog, Stanley A.; An, Michael Y.; Wang, K. C.; Tam, Luen T.; Caram, Jose M.

1993-01-01

This paper provides a description of procedures typically used to predict convective heating rates to hypersonic reentry vehicles using the two-layer method. These procedures were used to compute the pitch-plane heating distributions to the Apollo geometry for a wind tunnel test case and for three flight cases. Both simple engineering methods and coupled inviscid/boundary layer solutions were used to predict the heating rates. The sensitivity of the heating results in the choice of metrics, pressure distributions, boundary layer edge conditions, and wall catalycity used in the heating analysis were evaluated. Streamline metrics, pressure distributions, and boundary layer edge properties were defined from perfect gas (wind tunnel case) and chemical equilibrium and nonequilibrium (flight cases) inviscid flow-field solutions. The results of this study indicated that the use of CFD-derived metrics and pressures provided better predictions of heating when compared to wind tunnel test data. The study also showed that modeling entropy layer swallowing and ionization had little effect on the heating predictions.

Predicting Children's Liking of School from Their Peer Relationships

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Boulton, Michael J.; Don, Jacqui; Boulton, Louise

2011-01-01

Prior studies have established that children's peer relationships and school adjustment are associated. The main aims of the current study were to test if four measures of peer relationships (Peer Acceptance, Presence/Absence of Best Friend, Number of Friends, and Perceived Peer Support) could predict School Liking concurrently and longitudinally…

Testing DRAINMOD-FOREST for predicting evapotranspiration in a mid-rotation pine plantation

Treesearch

Shiying Tian; Mohamed A. Youssef; Ge Sun; George M. Chescheir; Asko Noormets; Devendra M. Amatya; R. Wayne Skaggs; John S. King; Steve McNulty; Michael Gavazzi; Guofang Miao; Jean-Christophe Domec

2015-01-01

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the hydrologic cycle in terrestrial ecosystems and accurate description of ET processes is essential for developing reliable ecohydrological models. This study investigated the accuracy of ET prediction by the DRAINMOD-FOREST after its calibration/validation for predicting commonly measured hydrological variables. The model...

Early Numeracy Indicators: Examining Predictive Utility Across Years and States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Conoyer, Sarah J.; Foegen, Anne; Lembke, Erica S.

2016-01-01

Two studies using similar methods in two states investigated the long-term predictive utility of two single-skill early numeracy Curriculum Based Measures (CBMs) and the degree to which they can adequately predict high-stakes test scores. Data were drawn from kindergarten and first-grade students. State standardized assessment data from the…

Validity of cervical auscultation in the screening for aspiration.

PubMed

Al Hawat, A; Woisard, V; Perez-Begout, L; Sarrabère, E; Grand, S; Puech, M

2014-01-01

Cervical auscultation could improve the performance of bedside swallowing test to predict aspiration, especially silent aspiration. The aim of this study is to compare the predictive values of bedside swallowing test performed with and without cervical auscultation by logopedist students who had intensive training on cervical auscultation. 64 patients were included in the study. They all underwent swallowing test alone, combined swallowing test and cervical auscultation, and videofluoroscopic swallowing study as defined gold standard. Two logopedist students, at the end of their training, performed the auscultation and noted their results. 128 tests were performed, 96% of the tests were judged positive for aspiration. When comparing the results of the two different clinical tests, the detection of clinical signs is not improved by the addition of auscultation. Using a penetration aspiration scale threshold >5, the area under the curve measured for the swallowing test alone was significantly higher than that measured for the combined tests (p = 0.03) (0.66 for the swallowing test alone (95% CI between 0.49 and 0.83), and 0.50 for the combined tests (95% CI between 0.31 and 0.69). This study showed no advantage in performing cervical auscultation with bedside swallowing test. Cervical auscultation seems to hamper the assessment, mainly the perception of wet voice and laryngeal motion. These results are compatible with literature but need further confirmation using studies performed with trained logopedists.

An evaporative and engine-cycle model for fuel octane sensitivity prediction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Moran, D.P.; Taylor, A.B.

The Motor Octane Number (MON) ranks fuels by their chemical resistance to knock. Evaporative cooling coupled with fuel chemistry determine Research Octane Number (RON) antiknock ratings. It is shown in this study that fuel Octane sensitivity (numerically RON minus MON) is liked to an important difference between the two test methods; the RON test allows each fuel`s evaporative cooling characteristics to affect gas temperature, while the MON test generally eliminates this effect by pre-evaporation. In order to establish RON test charge temperatures, a computer model of fuel evaporation was adapted to Octane Engine conditions, and simulations were compared with realmore » Octane Test Engine measurements including droplet and gas temperatures. A novel gas temperature probe yielded data that corresponded well with model predictions. Tests spanned single component fuels and blends of isomers, n-paraffins, aromatics and alcohols. Commercially available automotive and aviation gasolines were also tested. A good correlation was observed between the computer predictions and measured temperature data across the range of pure fuels and blends. A numerical method to estimate the effect of precombustion temperature differences on Octane sensitivity was developed and applied to analyze these data, and was found to predict the widely disparate sensitivities of the tested fuels with accuracy. Data are presented showing mixture temperature histories of various tested fuels, and consequent sensitivity predictions. It is concluded that a fuel`s thermal-evaporative behavior gives rise to fuel Octane sensitivity as measured by differences between the RON and MON tests. This is demonstrated by the success, over a wide range of fuels, of the sensitivity predictor method describes. Evaporative cooling, must therefore be regarded as an important parameter affecting the general road performance of automobiles.« less

A study of fault prediction and reliability assessment in the SEL environment

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Basili, Victor R.; Patnaik, Debabrata

1986-01-01

An empirical study on estimation and prediction of faults, prediction of fault detection and correction effort, and reliability assessment in the Software Engineering Laboratory environment (SEL) is presented. Fault estimation using empirical relationships and fault prediction using curve fitting method are investigated. Relationships between debugging efforts (fault detection and correction effort) in different test phases are provided, in order to make an early estimate of future debugging effort. This study concludes with the fault analysis, application of a reliability model, and analysis of a normalized metric for reliability assessment and reliability monitoring during development of software.

Responsiveness and predictive validity of the tablet-based symbol digit modalities test in patients with stroke.

PubMed

Hsiao, Pei-Chi; Yu, Wan-Hui; Lee, Shih-Chieh; Chen, Mei-Hsiang; Hsieh, Ching-Lin

2018-06-14

The responsiveness and predictive validity of the Tablet-based Symbol Digit Modalities Test (T-SDMT) are unknown, which limits the utility of the T-SDMT in both clinical and research settings. The purpose of this study was to examine the responsiveness and predictive validity of the T-SDMT in inpatients with stroke. A follow-up, repeated-assessments design. One rehabilitation unit at a local medical center. A total of 50 inpatients receiving rehabilitation completed T-SDMT assessments at admission to and discharge from a rehabilitation ward. The median follow-up period was 14 days. The Barthel index (BI) was assessed at discharge and was used as the criterion of the predictive validity. The mean changes in the T-SDMT scores between admission and discharge were statistically significant (paired t-test = 3.46, p = 0.001). The T-SDMT scores showed a nearly moderate standardized response mean (0.49). A moderate association (Pearson's r = 0.47) was found between the scores of the T-SDMT at admission and those of the BI at discharge, indicating good predictive validity of the T-SDMT. Our results support the responsiveness and predictive validity of the T-SDMT in patients with stroke receiving rehabilitation in hospitals. This study provides empirical evidence supporting the use of the T-SDMT as an outcome measure for assessing processingspeed in inpatients with stroke. The scores of the T-SDMT could be used to predict basic activities of daily living function in inpatients with stroke.

Prediction of beta-turns with learning machines.

PubMed

Cai, Yu-Dong; Liu, Xiao-Jun; Li, Yi-Xue; Xu, Xue-biao; Chou, Kuo-Chen

2003-05-01

The support vector machine approach was introduced to predict the beta-turns in proteins. The overall self-consistency rate by the re-substitution test for the training or learning dataset reached 100%. Both the training dataset and independent testing dataset were taken from Chou [J. Pept. Res. 49 (1997) 120]. The success prediction rates by the jackknife test for the beta-turn subset of 455 tetrapeptides and non-beta-turn subset of 3807 tetrapeptides in the training dataset were 58.1 and 98.4%, respectively. The success rates with the independent dataset test for the beta-turn subset of 110 tetrapeptides and non-beta-turn subset of 30,231 tetrapeptides were 69.1 and 97.3%, respectively. The results obtained from this study support the conclusion that the residue-coupled effect along a tetrapeptide is important for the formation of a beta-turn.

A new condition for assessing the clinical efficiency of a diagnostic test.

PubMed

Bokhari, Ehsan; Hubert, Lawrence

2015-09-01

When prediction using a diagnostic test outperforms simple prediction using base rates, the test is said to be "clinically efficient," a term first introduced into the literature by Meehl and Rosen (1955) in Psychological Bulletin. This article provides three equivalent conditions for determining the clinical efficiency of a diagnostic test: (a) Meehl-Rosen (Meehl & Rosen, 1955); (b) Dawes (Dawes, 1962); and (c) the Bokhari-Hubert condition, introduced here for the first time. Clinical efficiency is then generalized to situations where misclassification costs are considered unequal (for example, false negatives are more costly than false positives). As an illustration, the clinical efficiency of an actuarial device for predicting violent and dangerous behavior is examined that was developed as part of the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved.

Development of a noise annoyance sensitivity scale

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bregman, H. L.; Pearson, R. G.

1972-01-01

Examining the problem of noise pollution from the psychological rather than the engineering view, a test of human sensitivity to noise was developed against the criterion of noise annoyance. Test development evolved from a previous study in which biographical, attitudinal, and personality data was collected on a sample of 166 subjects drawn from the adult community of Raleigh. Analysis revealed that only a small subset of the data collected was predictive of noise annoyance. Item analysis yielded 74 predictive items that composed the preliminary noise sensitivity test. This was administered to a sample of 80 adults who later rate the annoyance value of six sounds (equated in terms of peak sound pressure level) presented in a simulated home, living-room environment. A predictive model involving 20 test items was developed using multiple regression techniques, and an item weighting scheme was evaluated.

Validity of a novel computerized screening test system for mild cognitive impairment.

PubMed

Park, Jin-Hyuck; Jung, Minye; Kim, Jongbae; Park, Hae Yean; Kim, Jung-Ran; Park, Ji-Hyuk

2018-06-20

ABSTRACTBackground:The mobile screening test system for screening mild cognitive impairment (mSTS-MCI) was developed for clinical use. However, the clinical usefulness of mSTS-MCI to detect elderly with MCI from those who are cognitively healthy has yet to be validated. Moreover, the comparability between this system and traditional screening tests for MCI has not been evaluated. The purpose of this study was to examine the validity and reliability of the mSTS-MCI and confirm the cut-off scores to detect MCI. The data were collected from 107 healthy elderly people and 74 elderly people with MCI. Concurrent validity was examined using the Korean version of Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA-K) as a gold standard test, and test-retest reliability was investigated using 30 of the study participants at four-week intervals. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value (NPV) were confirmed through Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the cut-off scores for elderly people with MCI were identified. Concurrent validity showed statistically significant correlations between the mSTS-MCI and MoCA-K and test-rests reliability indicated high correlation. As a result of screening predictability, the mSTS-MCI had a higher NPV than the MoCA-K. The mSTS-MCI was identified as a system with a high degree of validity and reliability. In addition, the mSTS-MCI showed high screening predictability, indicating it can be used in the clinical field as a screening test system for mild cognitive impairment.

Cold formability prediction by the modified maximum force criterion with a non-associated Hill48 model accounting for anisotropic hardening

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Lian, J.; Ahn, D. C.; Chae, D. C.; Münstermann, S.; Bleck, W.

2016-08-01

Experimental and numerical investigations on the characterisation and prediction of cold formability of a ferritic steel sheet are performed in this study. Tensile tests and Nakajima tests were performed for the plasticity characterisation and the forming limit diagram determination. In the numerical prediction, the modified maximum force criterion is selected as the localisation criterion. For the plasticity model, a non-associated formulation of the Hill48 model is employed. With the non-associated flow rule, the model can result in a similar predictive capability of stress and r-value directionality to the advanced non-quadratic associated models. To accurately characterise the anisotropy evolution during hardening, the anisotropic hardening is also calibrated and implemented into the model for the prediction of the formability.

Prediction of Return-to-original-work after an Industrial Accident Using Machine Learning and Comparison of Techniques

PubMed Central

2018-01-01

Background Many studies have tried to develop predictors for return-to-work (RTW). However, since complex factors have been demonstrated to predict RTW, it is difficult to use them practically. This study investigated whether factors used in previous studies could predict whether an individual had returned to his/her original work by four years after termination of the worker's recovery period. Methods An initial logistic regression analysis of 1,567 participants of the fourth Panel Study of Worker's Compensation Insurance yielded odds ratios. The participants were divided into two subsets, a training dataset and a test dataset. Using the training dataset, logistic regression, decision tree, random forest, and support vector machine models were established, and important variables of each model were identified. The predictive abilities of the different models were compared. Results The analysis showed that only earned income and company-related factors significantly affected return-to-original-work (RTOW). The random forest model showed the best accuracy among the tested machine learning models; however, the difference was not prominent. Conclusion It is possible to predict a worker's probability of RTOW using machine learning techniques with moderate accuracy. PMID:29736160

Study on validity of a rapid diagnostic test kit versus light microscopy for malaria diagnosis in Ahmedabad city, India.

PubMed

Vyas, S; Puwar, B; Patel, V; Bhatt, G; Kulkarni, S; Fancy, M

2014-05-01

Light microscopy of blood smears for diagnosis of malaria in the field has several limitations, notably delays in diagnosis. This study in Ahmedabad in Gujarat State, India, evaluated the diagnostic performance of a rapid diagnostic test for malaria (SD Bioline Malaria Ag P.f/Pan) versus blood smear examination as the gold standard. All fever cases presenting at 13 urban health centres were subjected to rapid diagnostic testing and thick and thin blood smears. A total of 677 cases with fever were examined; 135 (20.0%) tested positive by rapid diagnostic test and 86 (12.7%) by blood smear. The sensitivity of the rapid diagnostic test for malaria was 98.8%, specificity was 91.5%, positive predictive value 63.0% and negative predictive value 99.8%. For detection of Plasmodium falciparum the sensitivity of rapid diagnostic test was 100% and specificity was 97.3%. The results show the acceptability of the rapid test as an alternative to light microscopy in the field setting.

Field investigation of the drift shadow

USGS Publications Warehouse

Su, G.W.; Kneafsey, T.J.; Ghezzehei, T.A.; Cook, P.J.; Marshall, B.D.

2006-01-01

The "Drift Shadow" is defined as the relatively drier region that forms below subsurface cavities or drifts in unsaturated rock. Its existence has been predicted through analytical and numerical models of unsaturated flow. However, these theoretical predictions have not been demonstrated empirically to date. In this project we plan to test the drift shadow concept through field investigations and compare our observations to simulations. Based on modeling studies we have an identified a suitable site to perform the study at an inactive mine in a sandstone formation. Pretest modeling studies and preliminary characterization of the site are being used to develop the field scale tests.

Implementation and Initial Validation of the MDTP Tests at Golden West College.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Isonio, Steven

In 1992, a study was conducted at Golden West College (California) to determine the predictive validity of the Math Diagnostic Testing Project (MDTP) tests. A total of 1,137 students were tested in-class; 601 took the Algebra Readiness test, 376 took the Elementary Algebra test, and 160 took the Intermediate Algebra test. Two correlation…

Association of systemic lupus erythematosus with uveitis.

PubMed

Gallagher, Kevin; Viswanathan, Ananth; Okhravi, Narciss

2015-10-01

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) can be associated with uveitis. The reported prevalence of SLE in patients with uveitis varies from 0.1% to 4.8%. Accordingly, the positive predictive value of antinuclear antibody testing in diagnosing SLE in a patient with uveitis varies enormously. An accurate estimate of SLE prevalence in uveitis is needed to establish the value of routine antinuclear antibody testing in patients with uveitis. A literature review using the Medline database was performed to find studies reporting data on uveitis etiology from January 1, 1984, to March 20, 2015. Studies were included where there were sufficient data to draw conclusions on the prevalence of SLE as an etiological factor in uveitis. Data for 53 315 patients were reviewed and 63 studies from 30 countries were included. The prevalence of SLE as a cause of uveitis was estimated to be 0.47% (95% CI, 0.41%-0.53%). The positive predictive value of routine antinuclear antibody testing was 2.9% (95% CI, 2.65%-3.19%). Systemic lupus erythematosus is a rare cause of uveitis. Routine antinuclear antibody testing has a low positive predictive value for SLE. These data suggest such testing should be reserved for patients where there is a higher pretest probability of SLE.

Impact of Huntington Disease Gene-Positive Status on Pre-Symptomatic Young Adults and Recommendations for Genetic Counselors.

PubMed

Gong, Ping; Fanos, Joanna H; Korty, Lauren; Siskind, Carly E; Hanson-Kahn, Andrea K

2016-12-01

Huntington disease (HD) is an autosomal dominant, progressive neurodegenerative disorder for which there is no cure. Predictive testing for HD is available to asymptomatic at-risk individuals. Approximately half of the population undergoing predictive testing for HD consists of young adults (≤35 years old). Finishing one's education, starting a career, engaging in romantic relationships and becoming a parent are key milestones of young adulthood. We conducted a qualitative study to explore how testing gene-positive for HD influences young adults' attainment of these milestones, and to identify major challenges that pre-symptomatic young adults face to aid the development of targeted genetic counseling. Results of our study demonstrate that 1) knowing one's gene-positive status results in an urgency to reach milestones and positively changes young adults' approach to life; 2) testing positive influences young adults' education and career choices, romantic relationships, and family planning; 3) young adults desire flexible and tailored genetic counseling to address needs and concerns unique to this population. Findings of this study contribute to the understanding of the impact of predictive testing for HD on young adults, and highlight issues unique to this population that call for further research, intervention and advocacy.

Rumination prospectively predicts executive functioning impairments in adolescents.

PubMed

Connolly, Samantha L; Wagner, Clara A; Shapero, Benjamin G; Pendergast, Laura L; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2014-03-01

The current study tested the resource allocation hypothesis, examining whether baseline rumination or depressive symptom levels prospectively predicted deficits in executive functioning in an adolescent sample. The alternative to this hypothesis was also evaluated by testing whether lower initial levels of executive functioning predicted increases in rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. A community sample of 200 adolescents (ages 12-13) completed measures of depressive symptoms, rumination, and executive functioning at baseline and at a follow-up session approximately 15 months later. Adolescents with higher levels of baseline rumination displayed decreases in selective attention and attentional switching at follow-up. Rumination did not predict changes in working memory or sustained and divided attention. Depressive symptoms were not found to predict significant changes in executive functioning scores at follow-up. Baseline executive functioning was not associated with change in rumination or depression over time. Findings partially support the resource allocation hypothesis that engaging in ruminative thoughts consumes cognitive resources that would otherwise be allocated towards difficult tests of executive functioning. Support was not found for the alternative hypothesis that lower levels of initial executive functioning would predict increased rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. Our study is the first to find support for the resource allocation hypothesis using a longitudinal design and an adolescent sample. Findings highlight the potentially detrimental effects of rumination on executive functioning during early adolescence. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Incremental Validity of Useful Field of View Subtests for the Prediction of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living

PubMed Central

Aust, Frederik; Edwards, Jerri D.

2015-01-01

Introduction The Useful Field of View Test (UFOV®) is a cognitive measure that predicts older adults’ ability to perform a range of everyday activities. However, little is known about the individual contribution of each subtest to these predictions and the underlying constructs of UFOV performance remain a topic of debate. Method We investigated the incremental validity of UFOV subtests for the prediction of Instrumental Activities of Daily Living (IADL) performance in two independent datasets, the SKILL (n = 828) and ACTIVE (n = 2426) studies. We, then, explored the cognitive and visual abilities assessed by UFOV using a range of neuropsychological and vision tests administered in the SKILL study. Results In the four subtest variant of UFOV, only subtests 2 and 3 consistently made independent contributions to the prediction of IADL performance across three different behavioral measures. In all cases, the incremental validity of UFOV subtests 1 and 4 was negligible. Furthermore, we found that UFOV was related to processing speed, general non-speeded cognition, and visual function; the omission of subtests 1 and 4 from the test score did not affect these associations. Conclusions UFOV subtests 1 and 4 appear to be of limited use to predict IADL and possibly other everyday activities. Future experimental research should investigate if shortening the UFOV by omitting these subtests is a reliable and valid assessment approach. PMID:26782018

Rumination prospectively predicts executive functioning impairments in adolescents

PubMed Central

Connolly, Samantha L.; Wagner, Clara A.; Shapero, Benjamin G.; Pendergast, Laura L.; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2014-01-01

Background and objectives The current study tested the resource allocation hypothesis, examining whether baseline rumination or depressive symptom levels prospectively predicted deficits in executive functioning in an adolescent sample. The alternative to this hypothesis was also evaluated by testing whether lower initial levels of executive functioning predicted increases in rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. Methods A community sample of 200 adolescents (ages 12–13) completed measures of depressive symptoms, rumination, and executive functioning at baseline and at a follow-up session approximately 15 months later. Results Adolescents with higher levels of baseline rumination displayed decreases in selective attention and attentional switching at follow-up. Rumination did not predict changes in working memory or sustained and divided attention. Depressive symptoms were not found to predict significant changes in executive functioning scores at follow-up. Baseline executive functioning was not associated with change in rumination or depression over time. Conclusions Findings partially support the resource allocation hypothesis that engaging in ruminative thoughts consumes cognitive resources that would otherwise be allocated towards difficult tests of executive functioning. Support was not found for the alternative hypothesis that lower levels of initial executive functioning would predict increased rumination or depressive symptoms at follow-up. Our study is the first to find support for the resource allocation hypothesis using a longitudinal design and an adolescent sample. Findings highlight the potentially detrimental effects of rumination on executive functioning during early adolescence. PMID:23978629

The 6-Minute-Walk Distance Test as a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Stratification Tool. Insights from the COPD Biomarker Qualification Consortium.

PubMed

Celli, Bartolome; Tetzlaff, Kay; Criner, Gerard; Polkey, Michael I; Sciurba, Frank; Casaburi, Richard; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Kawata, Ariane; Merrill, Debora; Rennard, Stephen

2016-12-15

The 6-minute-walk distance (6MWD) test predicts mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Whether variability in study type (observational vs. interventional) or region performed limits use of the test as a stratification tool or outcome measure for therapeutic trials is unclear. To analyze the original data from several large observational studies and from randomized clinical trials with bronchodilators to support the qualification of the 6MWD test as a drug development tool in COPD. Original data from 14,497 patients with COPD from six observational (n = 9,641) and five interventional (n = 4,856) studies larger than 100 patients and longer than 6 months in duration were included. The geographical, anthropometrics, FEV 1 , dyspnea, comorbidities, and health status scores were measured. Associations between 6MWD and mortality, hospitalizations, and exacerbations adjusted by study type, age, and sex were evaluated. Thresholds for outcome prediction were calculated using receiver operating curves. The change in 6MWD after inhaled bronchodilator treatment and surgical lung volume reduction were analyzed to evaluate the responsiveness of the test as an outcome measure. The 6MWD was significantly lower in nonsurvivors, those hospitalized, or who exacerbated compared with those without events at 6, 12, and greater than 12 months. At these time points, the 6MWD receiver operating characteristic curve-area under the curve to predict mortality was 0.71, 0.70, and 0.68 and for hospitalizations was 0.61, 0.60, and 0.59, respectively. After treatment, the 6MWD was not different between placebo and bronchodilators but increased after surgical lung volume reduction compared with medical therapy. Variation across study types (observational or therapeutic) or regions did not confound the ability of 6MWD to predict outcome. The 6MWD test can be used to stratify patients with COPD for clinical trials and interventions aimed at modifying exacerbations, hospitalizations, or death.

The 6-Minute-Walk Distance Test as a Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Stratification Tool. Insights from the COPD Biomarker Qualification Consortium

PubMed Central

Tetzlaff, Kay; Criner, Gerard; Polkey, Michael I.; Sciurba, Frank; Casaburi, Richard; Tal-Singer, Ruth; Kawata, Ariane; Merrill, Debora; Rennard, Stephen

2016-01-01

Rationale: The 6-minute-walk distance (6MWD) test predicts mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). Whether variability in study type (observational vs. interventional) or region performed limits use of the test as a stratification tool or outcome measure for therapeutic trials is unclear. Objectives: To analyze the original data from several large observational studies and from randomized clinical trials with bronchodilators to support the qualification of the 6MWD test as a drug development tool in COPD. Methods: Original data from 14,497 patients with COPD from six observational (n = 9,641) and five interventional (n = 4,856) studies larger than 100 patients and longer than 6 months in duration were included. The geographical, anthropometrics, FEV1, dyspnea, comorbidities, and health status scores were measured. Associations between 6MWD and mortality, hospitalizations, and exacerbations adjusted by study type, age, and sex were evaluated. Thresholds for outcome prediction were calculated using receiver operating curves. The change in 6MWD after inhaled bronchodilator treatment and surgical lung volume reduction were analyzed to evaluate the responsiveness of the test as an outcome measure. Measurements and Main Results: The 6MWD was significantly lower in nonsurvivors, those hospitalized, or who exacerbated compared with those without events at 6, 12, and greater than 12 months. At these time points, the 6MWD receiver operating characteristic curve–area under the curve to predict mortality was 0.71, 0.70, and 0.68 and for hospitalizations was 0.61, 0.60, and 0.59, respectively. After treatment, the 6MWD was not different between placebo and bronchodilators but increased after surgical lung volume reduction compared with medical therapy. Variation across study types (observational or therapeutic) or regions did not confound the ability of 6MWD to predict outcome. Conclusions: The 6MWD test can be used to stratify patients with COPD for clinical trials and interventions aimed at modifying exacerbations, hospitalizations, or death. PMID:27332504

Novel Signs and Their Clinical Utility in Diagnosing Complex Regional Pain Syndrome (CRPS): A Prospective Observational Cohort Study.

PubMed

Kuttikat, Anoop; Shaikh, Maliha; Oomatia, Amin; Parker, Richard; Shenker, Nicholas

2017-06-01

Delays in diagnosis occur with complex regional pain syndrome (CRPS). We define and prospectively demonstrate that novel bedside tests measuring body perception disruption can identify patients with CRPS postfracture. The objectives of our study were to define and validate 4 bedside tests, to identify the prevalence of positive tests in patients with CRPS and other chronic pain conditions, and to assess the clinical utility (sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value) for identifying CRPS within a Fracture cohort. This was a single UK teaching hospital prospective cohort study with 313 recruits from pain-free volunteers and patients with chronic pain conditions.Four novel tests were Finger Perception (FP), Hand Laterality identification (HL), Astereognosis (AS), and Body Scheme (BS) report. Five questionnaires (Brief Pain Inventory, Upper Extremity Functional Index, Lower Extremity Functional Index, Neglect-like Symptom Questionnaire, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score) assessed the multidimensional pain experience. FP and BS were the best performing tests. Prospective monitoring of fracture patients showed that out of 7 fracture patients (total n=47) who had both finger misperception and abnormal BS report at initial testing, 3 developed persistent pain with 1 having a formal diagnosis of CRPS. Novel signs are reliable, easy to perform, and present in chronic pain patients. FP and BS have significant clinical utility in predicting persistent pain in a fracture group thereby allowing targeted early intervention.

Genetic Testing in Psychiatry: A Review of Attitudes and Beliefs

PubMed Central

Lawrence, Ryan E; Appelbaum, Paul S.

2012-01-01

The advent of genetic testing for psychiatric conditions raises difficult questions about when and how the tests should be used. Development of policies regarding these issues may be informed in a variety of ways by the views of key stakeholders: patients, family members, healthcare professionals, and the general public. Here we review empirical studies of attitudes towards genetic testing among these groups. Patients and family members show strong interest in diagnostic and predictive genetic testing, and to a considerable extent psychiatrists share their enthusiasm. Prenatal test utilization seems likely to depend both on parental views on abortion and the seriousness of the disorder. Parents show a surprising degree of interest in predictive testing of children, even when there are no preventive interventions available. Many persons report themselves ready to alter their lifestyles and plans for marriage and family in response to test results. Respondents also fear negative consequences, from discrimination to being unable to cope with knowledge of their “genetic fate.” Empirical studies of beliefs about genetic testing suggest tests are likely to be embraced widely, but the studies have methodologic limitations, reducing the certainty of their conclusions, and indicating a need for further research with more representative samples. PMID:22168293

Prediction of Readiness in Kindergarten and Achievement in the First Primary Year. Study Number Two.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

University City School District, MO.

A 4-year United States Office of Education prekindergarten-kindergarten series of research studies has provided data useful in predicting school success. The present study compares test scores of the Complete Assessment Battery administered before the children entered kindergarten with scores of the same children on the Metropolitan Readiness…

Survey of ocular irritation predictive capacity using Chorioallantoic Membrane Vascular Assay (CAMVA) and Bovine Corneal Opacity and Permeability (BCOP) test historical data for 319 personal care products over fourteen years.

PubMed

Donahue, D A; Kaufman, L E; Avalos, J; Simion, F A; Cerven, D R

2011-03-01

The Chorioallantoic Membrane Vascular Assay (CAMVA) and Bovine Corneal Opacity and Permeability (BCOP) test are widely used to predict ocular irritation potential for consumer-use products. These in vitro assays do not require live animals, produce reliable predictive data for defined applicability domains compared to the Draize rabbit eye test, and are rapid and inexpensive. Data from 304 CAMVA and/or BCOP studies (319 formulations) were surveyed to determine the feasibility of predicting ocular irritation potential for various formulations. Hair shampoos, skin cleansers, and ethanol-based hair styling sprays were repeatedly predicted to be ocular irritants (accuracy rate=0.90-1.00), with skin cleanser and hair shampoo irritation largely dependent on surfactant species and concentration. Conversely, skin lotions/moisturizers and hair styling gels/lotions were repeatedly predicted to be non-irritants (accuracy rate=0.92 and 0.82, respectively). For hair shampoos, ethanol-based hair stylers, skin cleansers, and skin lotions/moisturizers, future ocular irritation testing (i.e., CAMVA/BCOP) can be nearly eliminated if new formulations are systematically compared to those previously tested using a defined decision tree. For other tested product categories, new formulations should continue to be evaluated in CAMVA/BCOP for ocular irritation potential because either the historical data exhibit significant variability (hair conditioners and mousses) or the historical sample size is too small to permit definitive conclusions (deodorants, make-up removers, massage oils, facial masks, body sprays, and other hair styling products). All decision tree conclusions should be made within a conservative weight-of-evidence context, considering the reported limitations of the BCOP test for alcohols, ketones, and solids. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Comparative Laboratory-Scale Testing of Dispersant Effectiveness of 23 Crude Oils Using Four Different Testing Protocols

EPA Science Inventory

A controlled laboratory study was conducted to measure the dispersion effectiveness of Corexit 9500 on 20 different crude oils. This study was a part of a larger project initiated by the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) testing 20 oils to compare the predict...

Two-stage bottom-up tiered approach combining several alternatives for identification of eye irritation potential of chemicals including insoluble or volatile substances.

PubMed

Hayashi, Kazuhiko; Mori, Taeko; Abo, Takayuki; Ooshima, Kenichi; Hayashi, Takumi; Komano, Tomoko; Takahashi, Yutaka; Sakaguchi, Hitoshi; Takatsu, Akihiko; Nishiyama, Naohiro

2012-10-01

For the assessment of eye irritation, one alternative test may not completely replace the rabbit Draize test. In the present study, we examined the predictive potential of a tiered approach analyzing the results from several alternatives (i.e., the Short Time Exposure (STE) test, the EpiOcular assay, the Hen's Egg Test-Chorioallantoic Membrane (HET-CAM) assay and the Bovine Corneal Opacity and Permeability (BCOP) assay) for assessing Globally Harmonized System (GHS) eye irritation categories. Fifty-six chemicals including alcohols, surfactants, and esters were selected with a balanced GHS category and a wide range of chemical classes. From a standpoint of both assessable sample numbers and predictive accuracy, the more favorable tiered approach was considered to be the two-stage bottom-up tiered approach combining the STE test, the EpiOcular assay followed by the BCOP assay (accuracy 69.6%, under prediction rate 8.9%). Moreover, a more favorable predictive capacity (accuracy 71.4%, under prediction rate 3.6%) was obtained when high volatile alcohols/esters with vapor pressures >6 kilopascal (kPa) at 25°C were evaluated with EpiOcular assay instead of the STE test. From these results, the two-stage bottom-up tiered approach combining the STE test, the EpiOcular assay followed by the BCOP assay might be a promising method for the classification of GHS eye irritation category (Not classified (NC), Category 2 (Cat. 2), and Category 1 (Cat. 1)) for a wide range of test chemicals regardless of solubility. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using iron studies to predict HFE mutations in New Zealand: implications for laboratory testing.

PubMed

O'Toole, Rebecca; Romeril, Kenneth; Bromhead, Collette

2017-04-01

The diagnosis of hereditary haemochromatosis (HH) is not straightforward because symptoms are often absent or non-specific. Biochemical markers of iron-overloading may be affected by other conditions. To measure the correlation between iron studies and HFE genotype to inform evidence-based recommendations for laboratory testing in New Zealand. Results from 2388 patients genotyped for C282Y, H63D and S65C in Wellington, New Zealand from 2007 to 2013 were compared with their biochemical phenotype as quantified by serum ferritin (SF), transferrin saturation (TS), serum iron (SI) and serum transferrin (ST). The predictive power of these markers was evaluated by receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and if a statistically significant association for a variable was seen, sensitivity, specificity and predictive values were calculated. Test ordering patterns showed that 62% of HFE genotyping tests were ordered because of an elevated SF alone and only 11% of these had a C-reactive protein test to rule out an acute phase reaction. The association between SF and significant HFE genotypes SF was low. However, TS values ≥45% predicted HH mutations with the highest sensitivity and specificity. A SF of >1000 µg/L was found in one at-risk patient (C282Y homozygote) who had a TS <45%. Our analysis highlights the need for clear guidelines for investigation of hyperferritinaemia and HH in New Zealand. Using our findings, we developed an evidence-based laboratory testing algorithm based on a TS ≥45%, a SF ≥1000 µg/L and/or a family history of HH which identified all C282Y homozygotes in this study. © 2016 Royal Australasian College of Physicians.

Impaired Response Selection During Stepping Predicts Falls in Older People-A Cohort Study.

PubMed

Schoene, Daniel; Delbaere, Kim; Lord, Stephen R

2017-08-01

Response inhibition, an important executive function, has been identified as a risk factor for falls in older people. This study investigated whether step tests that include different levels of response inhibition differ in their ability to predict falls and whether such associations are mediated by measures of attention, speed, and/or balance. A cohort study with a 12-month follow-up was conducted in community-dwelling older people without major cognitive and mobility impairments. Participants underwent 3 step tests: (1) choice stepping reaction time (CSRT) requiring rapid decision making and step initiation; (2) inhibitory choice stepping reaction time (iCSRT) requiring additional response inhibition and response-selection (go/no-go); and (3) a Stroop Stepping Test (SST) under congruent and incongruent conditions requiring conflict resolution. Participants also completed tests of processing speed, balance, and attention as potential mediators. Ninety-three of the 212 participants (44%) fell in the follow-up period. Of the step tests, only components of the iCSRT task predicted falls in this time with the relative risk per standard deviation for the reaction time (iCSRT-RT) = 1.23 (95%CI = 1.10-1.37). Multiple mediation analysis indicated that the iCSRT-RT was independently associated with falls and not mediated through slow processing speed, poor balance, or inattention. Combined stepping and response inhibition as measured in a go/no-go test stepping paradigm predicted falls in older people. This suggests that integrity of the response-selection component of a voluntary stepping response is crucial for minimizing fall risk. Copyright © 2017 AMDA – The Society for Post-Acute and Long-Term Care Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Comparisons of patch-use models for wintering American tree sparrows

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tome, M.W.

1990-01-01

Optimal foraging theory has stimulated numerous theoretical and empirical studies of foraging behavior for >20 years. These models provide a valuable tool for studying the foraging behavior of an organism. As with any other tool, the models are most effective when properly used. For example, to obtain a robust test of a foraging model, Stephens and Krebs (1986) recommend experimental designs in which four questions are answered in the affirmative. First, do the foragers play the same "game" as the model? Sec- ond, are the assumptions of the model met? Third, does the test rule out alternative possibilities? Finally, are the appropriate variables measured? Negative an- swers to any of these questions could invalidate the model and lead to confusion over the usefulness of foraging theory in conducting ecological studies. Gaines (1989) attempted to determine whether American Tree Sparrows (Spizella arborea) foraged by a time (Krebs 1973) or number expectation rule (Gibb 1962), or in a manner consistent with the predictions of Charnov's (1976) marginal value theorem (MVT). Gaines (1989: 118) noted appropriately that field tests of foraging models frequently involve uncontrollable circumstances; thus, it is often difficult to meet the assumptions of the models. Gaines also states (1989: 118) that "violations of the assumptions are also in- formative but do not constitute robust tests of predicted hypotheses," and that "the problem can be avoided by experimental analyses which concurrently test mutually exclusive hypotheses so that alter- native predictions will be eliminated if falsified." There is a problem with this approach because, when major assumptions of models are not satisfied, it is not justifiable to compare a predator's foraging behavior with the model's predictions. I submit that failing to follow the advice offered by Stephens and Krebs (1986) can invalidate tests of foraging models.

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.

PubMed

Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A; Johannesson, Magnus

2015-12-15

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

PubMed Central

Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus

2015-01-01

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. PMID:26553988

Validity of suspected alcohol and drug violations in aviation employees.

PubMed

Li, Guohua; Brady, Joanne E; DiMaggio, Charles; Baker, Susan P; Rebok, George W

2010-10-01

In the United States, transportation employees who are suspected of using alcohol and drugs are subject to reasonable-cause testing. This study aims to assess the validity of suspected alcohol and drug violations in aviation employees. Using reasonable-cause testing and random testing data from the Federal Aviation Administration for the years 1995-2005, we calculated the positive predictive value (PPV) and positive likelihood ratio (LR+) of suspected alcohol and drug violations. The true status of violations was based on testing results, with an alcohol violation being defined as a blood alcohol concentration of ≥0.04 mg/dl and a drug violation as a test positive for marijuana, cocaine, amphetamines, phencyclidine or opiates. During the 11-year study period, a total of 2284 alcohol tests and 2015 drug tests were performed under the reasonable-cause testing program. The PPV was 37.7% [95% confidence interval (CI), 35.7-39.7%] for suspected alcohol violations and 12.6% (95% CI, 11.2-14.1%) for suspected drug violations. Random testing revealed an overall prevalence of 0.09% for alcohol violations and 0.6% for drug violations. The LR+ was 653.6 (95% CI, 581.7-734.3) for suspected alcohol violations and 22.5 (95% CI, 19.6-25.7) for suspected drug violations. The discriminative power of reasonable-cause testing suggests that, despite its limited positive predictive value, physical and behavioral observation represents an efficient screening method for detecting alcohol and drug violations. The limited positive predictive value of reasonable-cause testing in aviation employees is due in part to the very low prevalence of alcohol and drug violations. © 2010 The Authors, Addiction © 2010 Society for the Study of Addiction.

A theoretical and experimental technique to measure fracture properties in viscoelastic solids

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Freitas, Felipe Araujo Colares De

Prediction of crack growth in engineering structures is necessary for better analysis and design. However, this prediction becomes quite complex for certain materials in which the fracture behavior is both rate and path dependent. Asphaltic materials used in pavements have that intrinsic complexity in their behavior. A lot of research effort has been devoted to better understanding viscoelastic behavior and fracture in such materials. This dissertation presents a further refinement of an experimental test setup, which is significantly different from standard testing protocols, to measure viscoelastic and fracture properties of nonlinear viscoelastic solids, such as asphaltic materials. The results presented herein are primarily for experiments with asphalt, but the test procedure can be used for other viscoelastic materials as well. Even though the test is designed as a fracture test, experiments on the investigated materials have uncovered very complex phenomena prior to fracture. Viscoelasticity and micromechanics are used to explain some of the physical phenomena observed in the tests. The material behavior prior to fracture includes both viscoelastic behavior and a necking effect, which is further discussed in the appendix of the present study. The dissertation outlines a theoretical model for the prediction of tractions ahead of the crack tip. The major contribution herein lies in the development of the experimental procedure for evaluating the material parameters necessary for deploying the model in the prediction of ductile crack growth. Finally, predictions of crack growth in a double cantilever beam specimens and asphalt concrete samples are presented in order to demonstrate the power of this approach for predicting crack growth in viscoelastic media.

Formulation Predictive Dissolution (fPD) Testing to Advance Oral Drug Product Development: an Introduction to the US FDA Funded '21st Century BA/BE' Project.

PubMed

Hens, Bart; Sinko, Patrick; Job, Nicholas; Dean, Meagan; Al-Gousous, Jozef; Salehi, Niloufar; Ziff, Robert M; Tsume, Yasuhiro; Bermejo, Marival; Paixão, Paulo; Brasseur, James G; Yu, Alex; Talattof, Arjang; Benninghoff, Gail; Langguth, Peter; Lennernäs, Hans; Hasler, William L; Marciani, Luca; Dickens, Joseph; Shedden, Kerby; Sun, Duxin; Amidon, Gregory E; Amidon, Gordon L

2018-06-23

Over the past decade, formulation predictive dissolution (fPD) testing has gained increasing attention. Another mindset is pushed forward where scientists in our field are more confident to explore the in vivo behavior of an oral drug product by performing predictive in vitro dissolution studies. Similarly, there is an increasing interest in the application of modern computational fluid dynamics (CFD) frameworks and high-performance computing platforms to study the local processes underlying absorption within the gastrointestinal (GI) tract. In that way, CFD and computing platforms both can inform future PBPK-based in silico frameworks and determine the GI-motility-driven hydrodynamic impacts that should be incorporated into in vitro dissolution methods for in vivo relevance. Current compendial dissolution methods are not always reliable to predict the in vivo behavior, especially not for biopharmaceutics classification system (BCS) class 2/4 compounds suffering from a low aqueous solubility. Developing a predictive dissolution test will be more reliable, cost-effective and less time-consuming as long as the predictive power of the test is sufficiently strong. There is a need to develop a biorelevant, predictive dissolution method that can be applied by pharmaceutical drug companies to facilitate marketing access for generic and novel drug products. In 2014, Prof. Gordon L. Amidon and his team initiated a far-ranging research program designed to integrate (1) in vivo studies in humans in order to further improve the understanding of the intraluminal processing of oral dosage forms and dissolved drug along the gastrointestinal (GI) tract, (2) advancement of in vitro methodologies that incorporates higher levels of in vivo relevance and (3) computational experiments to study the local processes underlying dissolution, transport and absorption within the intestines performed with a new unique CFD based framework. Of particular importance is revealing the physiological variables determining the variability in in vivo dissolution and GI absorption from person to person in order to address (potential) in vivo BE failures. This paper provides an introduction to this multidisciplinary project, informs the reader about current achievements and outlines future directions. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

A new approach to measure visual field progression in glaucoma patients using variational bayes linear regression.

PubMed

Murata, Hiroshi; Araie, Makoto; Asaoka, Ryo

2014-11-20

We generated a variational Bayes model to predict visual field (VF) progression in glaucoma patients. This retrospective study included VF series from 911 eyes of 547 glaucoma patients as test data, and VF series from 5049 eyes of 2858 glaucoma patients as training data. Using training data, variational Bayes linear regression (VBLR) was created to predict VF progression. The performance of VBLR was compared against ordinary least-squares linear regression (OLSLR) by predicting VFs in the test dataset. The total deviation (TD) values of test patients' 11th VFs were predicted using TD values from their second to 10th VFs (VF2-10), the root mean squared error (RMSE) associated with each approach then was calculated. Similarly, mean TD (mTD) of test patients' 11th VFs was predicted using VBLR and OLSLR, and the absolute prediction errors compared. The RMSE resulting from VBLR averaged 3.9 ± 2.1 (SD) and 4.9 ± 2.6 dB for prediction based on the second to 10th VFs (VF2-10) and the second to fourth VFs (VF2-4), respectively. The RMSE resulting from OLSLR was 4.1 ± 2.0 (VF2-10) and 19.9 ± 12.0 (VF2-4) dB. The absolute prediction error (SD) for mTD using VBLR was 1.2 ± 1.3 (VF2-10) and 1.9 ± 2.0 (VF2-4) dB, while the prediction error resulting from OLSLR was 1.2 ± 1.3 (VF2-10) and 6.2 ± 6.6 (VF2-4) dB. The VBLR more accurately predicts future VF progression in glaucoma patients compared to conventional OLSLR, especially in short VF series. © ARVO.

A population-based survey in Australia of men's and women's perceptions of genetic risk and predictive genetic testing and implications for primary care.

PubMed

Taylor, S

2011-01-01

Community attitudes research regarding genetic issues is important when contemplating the potential value and utilisation of predictive testing for common diseases in mainstream health services. This article aims to report population-based attitudes and discuss their relevance to integrating genetic services in primary health contexts. Men's and women's attitudes were investigated via population-based omnibus telephone survey in Queensland, Australia. Randomly selected adults (n = 1,230) with a mean age of 48.8 years were interviewed regarding perceptions of genetic determinants of health; benefits of genetic testing that predict 'certain' versus 'probable' future illness; and concern, if any, regarding potential misuse of genetic test information. Most (75%) respondents believed genetic factors significantly influenced health status; 85% regarded genetic testing positively although attitudes varied with age. Risk-based information was less valued than certainty-based information, but women valued risk information significantly more highly than men. Respondents reported 'concern' (44%) and 'no concern' (47%) regarding potential misuse of genetic information. This study contributes important population-based data as most research has involved selected individuals closely impacted by genetic disorders. While community attitudes were positive regarding genetic testing, genetic literacy is important to establish. The nature of gender differences regarding risk perception merits further study and has policy and service implications. Community concern about potential genetic discrimination must be addressed if health benefits of testing are to be maximised. Larger questions remain in scientific, policy, service delivery, and professional practice domains before predictive testing for common disorders is efficacious in mainstream health care. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Does trust of patients in their physician predict loyalty to the health care insurer? The Israeli case study.

PubMed

Gabay, Gillie

2016-01-01

This pioneer study tests the relationship between patients' trust in their physicians and patients' loyalty to their health care insurers. This is a cross-sectional study using a representative sample of patients from all health care insurers with identical health care plans. Regression analyses and Baron and Kenny's model were used to test the study model. Patient trust in the physician did not predict loyalty to the insurer. Loyalty to the physician did not mediate the relationship between trust in the physician and loyalty to the insurer. Satisfaction with the physician was the only predictor of loyalty to the insurer.

Prediction of non-linear pharmacokinetics in humans of an antibody-drug conjugate (ADC) when evaluation of higher doses in animals is limited by tolerability: Case study with an anti-CD33 ADC.

PubMed

Figueroa, Isabel; Leipold, Doug; Leong, Steve; Zheng, Bing; Triguero-Carrasco, Montserrat; Fourie-O'Donohue, Aimee; Kozak, Katherine R; Xu, Keyang; Schutten, Melissa; Wang, Hong; Polson, Andrew G; Kamath, Amrita V

2018-05-14

For antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) that carry a cytotoxic drug, doses that can be administered in preclinical studies are typically limited by tolerability, leading to a narrow dose range that can be tested. For molecules with non-linear pharmacokinetics (PK), this limited dose range may be insufficient to fully characterize the PK of the ADC and limits translation to humans. Mathematical PK models are frequently used for molecule selection during preclinical drug development and for translational predictions to guide clinical study design. Here, we present a practical approach that uses limited PK and receptor occupancy (RO) data of the corresponding unconjugated antibody to predict ADC PK when conjugation does not alter the non-specific clearance or the antibody-target interaction. We used a 2-compartment model incorporating non-specific and specific (target mediated) clearances, where the latter is a function of RO, to describe the PK of anti-CD33 ADC with dose-limiting neutropenia in cynomolgus monkeys. We tested our model by comparing PK predictions based on the unconjugated antibody to observed ADC PK data that was not utilized for model development. Prospective prediction of human PK was performed by incorporating in vitro binding affinity differences between species for varying levels of CD33 target expression. Additionally, this approach was used to predict human PK of other previously tested anti-CD33 molecules with published clinical data. The findings showed that, for a cytotoxic ADC with non-linear PK and limited preclinical PK data, incorporating RO in the PK model and using data from the corresponding unconjugated antibody at higher doses allowed the identification of parameters to characterize monkey PK and enabled human PK predictions.

Objectively-Measured Impulsivity and Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD): Testing Competing Predictions from the Working Memory and Behavioral Inhibition Models of ADHD

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Raiker, Joseph S.; Rapport, Mark D.; Kofler, Michael J.; Sarver, Dustin E.

2012-01-01

Impulsivity is a hallmark of two of the three DSM-IV ADHD subtypes and is associated with myriad adverse outcomes. Limited research, however, is available concerning the mechanisms and processes that contribute to impulsive responding by children with ADHD. The current study tested predictions from two competing models of ADHD--working memory (WM)…

Does Cognitive Ability Predict Mortality in the Ninth Decade? The Lothian Birth Cohort 1921

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Murray, Catherine; Pattie, Alison; Starr, John M.; Deary, Ian J.

2012-01-01

To test whether cognitive ability predicts survival from age 79 to 89 years data were collected from 543 (230 male) participants who entered the study at a mean age of 79.1 years. Most had taken the Moray House Test of general intelligence (MHT) when aged 11 and 79 years from which, in addition to intelligence measures at these two time points,…

The Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test for Consumption (AUDIT-C) is more useful than pre-existing laboratory tests for predicting hazardous drinking: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Fujii, Hideki; Nishimoto, Naoki; Yamaguchi, Seiko; Kurai, Osamu; Miyano, Masato; Ueda, Wataru; Oba, Hiroko; Aoki, Tetsuya; Kawada, Norifumi; Okawa, Kiyotaka

2016-05-10

It is important to screen for alcohol consumption and drinking customs in a standardized manner. The aim of this study was 1) to investigate whether the AUDIT score is useful for predicting hazardous drinking using optimal cutoff scores and 2) to use multivariate analysis to evaluate whether the AUDIT score was more useful than pre-existing laboratory tests for predicting hazardous drinking. A cross-sectional study using the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) was conducted in 334 outpatients who consulted our internal medicine department. The patients completed self-reported questionnaires and underwent a diagnostic interview, physical examination, and laboratory testing. Forty (23 %) male patients reported daily alcohol consumption ≥ 40 g, and 16 (10 %) female patients reported consumption ≥ 20 g. The optimal cutoff values of hazardous drinking were calculated using a 10-fold cross validation, resulting in an optimal AUDIT score cutoff of 8.2, with a sensitivity of 95.5 %, specificity of 87.0 %, false positive rate of 13.0 %, false negative rate of 4.5 %, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.97. Multivariate analysis revealed that the most popular short version of the AUDIT consisting solely of its three consumption items (AUDIT-C) and patient sex were significantly associated with hazardous drinking. The aspartate transaminase (AST)/alanine transaminase (ALT) ratio and mean corpuscular volume (MCV) were weakly significant. This study showed that the AUDIT score and particularly the AUDIT-C score were more useful than the AST/ALT ratio and MCV for predicting hazardous drinking.

Political conservatism predicts asymmetries in emotional scene memory.

PubMed

Mills, Mark; Gonzalez, Frank J; Giuseffi, Karl; Sievert, Benjamin; Smith, Kevin B; Hibbing, John R; Dodd, Michael D

2016-06-01

Variation in political ideology has been linked to differences in attention to and processing of emotional stimuli, with stronger responses to negative versus positive stimuli (negativity bias) the more politically conservative one is. As memory is enhanced by attention, such findings predict that memory for negative versus positive stimuli should similarly be enhanced the more conservative one is. The present study tests this prediction by having participants study 120 positive, negative, and neutral scenes in preparation for a subsequent memory test. On the memory test, the same 120 scenes were presented along with 120 new scenes and participants were to respond whether a scene was old or new. Results on the memory test showed that negative scenes were more likely to be remembered than positive scenes, though, this was true only for political conservatives. That is, a larger negativity bias was found the more conservative one was. The effect was sizeable, explaining 45% of the variance across subjects in the effect of emotion. These findings demonstrate that the relationship between political ideology and asymmetries in emotion processing extend to memory and, furthermore, suggest that exploring the extent to which subject variation in interactions among emotion, attention, and memory is predicted by conservatism may provide new insights into theories of political ideology. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Which screening tools can predict injury to the lower extremities in team sports?: a systematic review.

PubMed

Dallinga, Joan M; Benjaminse, Anne; Lemmink, Koen A P M

2012-09-01

Injuries to lower extremities are common in team sports such as soccer, basketball, volleyball, football and field hockey. Considering personal grief, disabling consequences and high costs caused by injuries to lower extremities, the importance for the prevention of these injuries is evident. From this point of view it is important to know which screening tools can identify athletes who are at risk of injury to their lower extremities. The aim of this article is to determine the predictive values of anthropometric and/or physical screening tests for injuries to the leg, anterior cruciate ligament (ACL), knee, hamstring, groin and ankle in team sports. A systematic review was conducted in MEDLINE (1966 to September 2011), EMBASE (1989 to September 2011) and CINAHL (1982 to September 2011). Based on inclusion criteria defined a priori, titles, abstracts and full texts were analysed to find relevant studies. The analysis showed that different screening tools can be predictive for injuries to the knee, ACL, hamstring, groin and ankle. For injuries in general there is some support in the literature to suggest that general joint laxity is a predictive measure for leg injuries. The anterior right/left reach distance >4 cm and the composite reach distance <4.0% of limb length in girls measured with the star excursion balance test (SEBT) may predict leg injuries. Furthermore, an increasing age, a lower hamstring/quadriceps (H : Q) ratio and a decreased range of motion (ROM) of hip abduction may predict the occurrence of leg injuries. Hyperextension of the knee, side-to-side differences in anterior-posterior knee laxity and differences in knee abduction moment between both legs are suggested to be predictive tests for sustaining an ACL injury and height was a predictive screening tool for knee ligament injuries. There is some evidence that when age increases, the probability of sustaining a hamstring injury increases. Debate exists in the analysed literature regarding measurement of the flexibility of the hamstring as a predictive screening tool, as well as using the H : Q ratio. Hip-adduction-to-abduction strength is a predictive test for hip adductor muscle strain. Studies do not agree on whether ROM of the hamstring is a predictive screening tool for groin injury. Body mass index and the age of an athlete could contribute to an ankle sprain. There is support in the literature to suggest that greater strength of the plantar flexors may be a predictive measure for sustaining an ankle injury. Furthermore, there is some agreement that the measurement of postural sway is a predictive test for an ankle injury. The screening tools mentioned above can be recommended to medical staff and coaches for screening their athletes. Future research should focus on prospective studies in larger groups and should follow athletes over several seasons.

QSAR study of curcumine derivatives as HIV-1 integrase inhibitors.

PubMed

Gupta, Pawan; Sharma, Anju; Garg, Prabha; Roy, Nilanjan

2013-03-01

A QSAR study was performed on curcumine derivatives as HIV-1 integrase inhibitors using multiple linear regression. The statistically significant model was developed with squared correlation coefficients (r(2)) 0.891 and cross validated r(2) (r(2) cv) 0.825. The developed model revealed that electronic, shape, size, geometry, substitution's information and hydrophilicity were important atomic properties for determining the inhibitory activity of these molecules. The model was also tested successfully for external validation (r(2) pred = 0.849) as well as Tropsha's test for model predictability. Furthermore, the domain analysis was carried out to evaluate the prediction reliability of external set molecules. The model was statistically robust and had good predictive power which can be successfully utilized for screening of new molecules.

Vocabulary Knowledge Predicts Lexical Processing: Evidence from a Group of Participants with Diverse Educational Backgrounds

PubMed Central

Mainz, Nina; Shao, Zeshu; Brysbaert, Marc; Meyer, Antje S.

2017-01-01

Vocabulary knowledge is central to a speaker's command of their language. In previous research, greater vocabulary knowledge has been associated with advantages in language processing. In this study, we examined the relationship between individual differences in vocabulary and language processing performance more closely by (i) using a battery of vocabulary tests instead of just one test, and (ii) testing not only university students (Experiment 1) but young adults from a broader range of educational backgrounds (Experiment 2). Five vocabulary tests were developed, including multiple-choice and open antonym and synonym tests and a definition test, and administered together with two established measures of vocabulary. Language processing performance was measured using a lexical decision task. In Experiment 1, vocabulary and word frequency were found to predict word recognition speed while we did not observe an interaction between the effects. In Experiment 2, word recognition performance was predicted by word frequency and the interaction between word frequency and vocabulary, with high-vocabulary individuals showing smaller frequency effects. While overall the individual vocabulary tests were correlated and showed similar relationships with language processing as compared to a composite measure of all tests, they appeared to share less variance in Experiment 2 than in Experiment 1. Implications of our findings concerning the assessment of vocabulary size in individual differences studies and the investigation of individuals from more varied backgrounds are discussed. PMID:28751871

[Assessment of a rapid diagnostic test for malaria in rural health care facilities in Senegal].

PubMed

Munier, A; Diallo, A; Sokhna, C; Chippaux, J P

2009-10-01

The aim of the study was to determine the accuracy of a rapid diagnostic test in confirming presumptive malaria diagnosis in a rural zone of Senegal. Thick blood smear was used as the reference technique for comparison. METHOHDOLOGY: Testing was conducted on children between the ages of 1 and 14 years at three health care facilities located in the Niakhar are from August 2006 to June 2007. If malaria was suspected by the nurse based on clinical findings, two thick smears and one rapid diagnostic test (Core Malaria Pf) were performed. Blood slides were stained in Niakhar and read in Dakar. A total of 474 patients were examined. Three-fourths (75%) of these patients were seen during the rainy season. Malaria was suspected in 335 patients (71%). Rapid tests and thick smears were obtained in 330 of these patients with positive results in 194 (59%) and 180 (55%) respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of the rapid test were 96%, 87%, 90% and 95% respectively. Our data show that the rapid diagnostic test used in this study exhibits good sensitivity and positive predictive value. Despite its cost this test could be helpful in confirming malaria diagnosis in outlying health care facilities without the necessary resources to perform blood smears. Confirmation is necessary to avoid unwarranted prescription of malaria treatment due to inaccurate clinical diagnosis

PPCM: Combing multiple classifiers to improve protein-protein interaction prediction

DOE PAGES

Yao, Jianzhuang; Guo, Hong; Yang, Xiaohan

2015-08-01

Determining protein-protein interaction (PPI) in biological systems is of considerable importance, and prediction of PPI has become a popular research area. Although different classifiers have been developed for PPI prediction, no single classifier seems to be able to predict PPI with high confidence. We postulated that by combining individual classifiers the accuracy of PPI prediction could be improved. We developed a method called protein-protein interaction prediction classifiers merger (PPCM), and this method combines output from two PPI prediction tools, GO2PPI and Phyloprof, using Random Forests algorithm. The performance of PPCM was tested by area under the curve (AUC) using anmore » assembled Gold Standard database that contains both positive and negative PPI pairs. Our AUC test showed that PPCM significantly improved the PPI prediction accuracy over the corresponding individual classifiers. We found that additional classifiers incorporated into PPCM could lead to further improvement in the PPI prediction accuracy. Furthermore, cross species PPCM could achieve competitive and even better prediction accuracy compared to the single species PPCM. This study established a robust pipeline for PPI prediction by integrating multiple classifiers using Random Forests algorithm. Ultimately, this pipeline will be useful for predicting PPI in nonmodel species.« less

A Reactive Balance Rating Method that Correlates with Kinematics after Trip-Like Perturbations on a Treadmill and Fall Risk Among Residents of Older Adult Congregate Housing.

PubMed

Madigan, Michael L; Aviles, Jessica; Allin, Leigh J; Nussbaum, Maury A; Alexander, Neil B

2018-04-16

A growing number of studies are using modified treadmills to train reactive balance after trip-like perturbations that require multiple steps to recover balance. The goal of this study was thus to develop and validate a low-tech reactive balance rating method in the context of trip-like treadmill perturbations to facilitate the implementation of this training outside the research setting. Thirty-five residents of five senior congregate housing facilities participated in the study. Subjects completed a series of reactive balance tests on a modified treadmill from which the reactive balance rating was determined, along with a battery of standard clinical balance and mobility tests that predict fall risk. We investigated the strength of correlation between the reactive balance rating and reactive balance kinematics. We compared the strength of correlation between the reactive balance rating and clinical tests predictive of fall risk, with the strength of correlation between reactive balance kinematics and the same clinical tests. We also compared the reactive balance rating between subjects predicted to be at a high or low risk of falling. The reactive balance rating was correlated with reactive balance kinematics (Spearman's rho squared = .04 - .30), exhibited stronger correlations with clinical tests than most kinematic measures (Spearman's rho squared = .00 - .23), and was 42-60% lower among subjects predicted to be at a high risk for falling. The reactive balance rating method may provide a low-tech, valid measure of reactive balance kinematics, and an indicator of fall risk, after trip-like postural perturbations.

Negative HPV screening test predicts low cervical cancer risk better than negative Pap test

Cancer.gov

Based on a study that included more than 1 million women, investigators at NCI have determined that a negative test for HPV infection compared to a negative Pap test provides greater safety, or assurance, against future risk of cervical cancer.

Protein location prediction using atomic composition and global features of the amino acid sequence

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cherian, Betsy Sheena, E-mail: betsy.skb@gmail.com; Nair, Achuthsankar S.

2010-01-22

Subcellular location of protein is constructive information in determining its function, screening for drug candidates, vaccine design, annotation of gene products and in selecting relevant proteins for further studies. Computational prediction of subcellular localization deals with predicting the location of a protein from its amino acid sequence. For a computational localization prediction method to be more accurate, it should exploit all possible relevant biological features that contribute to the subcellular localization. In this work, we extracted the biological features from the full length protein sequence to incorporate more biological information. A new biological feature, distribution of atomic composition is effectivelymore » used with, multiple physiochemical properties, amino acid composition, three part amino acid composition, and sequence similarity for predicting the subcellular location of the protein. Support Vector Machines are designed for four modules and prediction is made by a weighted voting system. Our system makes prediction with an accuracy of 100, 82.47, 88.81 for self-consistency test, jackknife test and independent data test respectively. Our results provide evidence that the prediction based on the biological features derived from the full length amino acid sequence gives better accuracy than those derived from N-terminal alone. Considering the features as a distribution within the entire sequence will bring out underlying property distribution to a greater detail to enhance the prediction accuracy.« less

First trimester prediction of maternal glycemic status.

PubMed

Gabbay-Benziv, Rinat; Doyle, Lauren E; Blitzer, Miriam; Baschat, Ahmet A

2015-05-01

To predict gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or normoglycemic status using first trimester maternal characteristics. We used data from a prospective cohort study. First trimester maternal characteristics were compared between women with and without GDM. Association of these variables with sugar values at glucose challenge test (GCT) and subsequent GDM was tested to identify key parameters. A predictive algorithm for GDM was developed and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) statistics was used to derive the optimal risk score. We defined normoglycemic state, when GCT and all four sugar values at oral glucose tolerance test, whenever obtained, were normal. Using same statistical approach, we developed an algorithm to predict the normoglycemic state. Maternal age, race, prior GDM, first trimester BMI, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were all significantly associated with GDM. Age, BMI, and SBP were also associated with GCT values. The logistic regression analysis constructed equation and the calculated risk score yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 85%, 62%, 13.8%, and 98.3% for a cut-off value of 0.042, respectively (ROC-AUC - area under the curve 0.819, CI - confidence interval 0.769-0.868). The model constructed for normoglycemia prediction demonstrated lower performance (ROC-AUC 0.707, CI 0.668-0.746). GDM prediction can be achieved during the first trimester encounter by integration of maternal characteristics and basic measurements while normoglycemic status prediction is less effective.

TH-E-BRF-05: Comparison of Survival-Time Prediction Models After Radiotherapy for High-Grade Glioma Patients Based On Clinical and DVH Features

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Magome, T; Haga, A; Igaki, H

Purpose: Although many outcome prediction models based on dose-volume information have been proposed, it is well known that the prognosis may be affected also by multiple clinical factors. The purpose of this study is to predict the survival time after radiotherapy for high-grade glioma patients based on features including clinical and dose-volume histogram (DVH) information. Methods: A total of 35 patients with high-grade glioma (oligodendroglioma: 2, anaplastic astrocytoma: 3, glioblastoma: 30) were selected in this study. All patients were treated with prescribed dose of 30–80 Gy after surgical resection or biopsy from 2006 to 2013 at The University of Tokyomore » Hospital. All cases were randomly separated into training dataset (30 cases) and test dataset (5 cases). The survival time after radiotherapy was predicted based on a multiple linear regression analysis and artificial neural network (ANN) by using 204 candidate features. The candidate features included the 12 clinical features (tumor location, extent of surgical resection, treatment duration of radiotherapy, etc.), and the 192 DVH features (maximum dose, minimum dose, D95, V60, etc.). The effective features for the prediction were selected according to a step-wise method by using 30 training cases. The prediction accuracy was evaluated by a coefficient of determination (R{sup 2}) between the predicted and actual survival time for the training and test dataset. Results: In the multiple regression analysis, the value of R{sup 2} between the predicted and actual survival time was 0.460 for the training dataset and 0.375 for the test dataset. On the other hand, in the ANN analysis, the value of R{sup 2} was 0.806 for the training dataset and 0.811 for the test dataset. Conclusion: Although a large number of patients would be needed for more accurate and robust prediction, our preliminary Result showed the potential to predict the outcome in the patients with high-grade glioma. This work was partly supported by the JSPS Core-to-Core Program(No. 23003) and Grant-in-aid from the JSPS Fellows.« less

Prediction of light aircraft interior sound pressure level from the measured sound power flowing in to the cabin

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atwal, Mahabir S.; Heitman, Karen E.; Crocker, Malcolm J.

1986-01-01

The validity of the room equation of Crocker and Price (1982) for predicting the cabin interior sound pressure level was experimentally tested using a specially constructed setup for simultaneous measurements of transmitted sound intensity and interior sound pressure levels. Using measured values of the reverberation time and transmitted intensities, the equation was used to predict the space-averaged interior sound pressure level for three different fuselage conditions. The general agreement between the room equation and experimental test data is considered good enough for this equation to be used for preliminary design studies.

Efficacy of changing physics misconceptions held by ninth grade students at varying developmental levels through teacher addition of a prediction phase to the learning cycle

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Oglesby, Michael L.

This study examines the efficacy in correcting student misconceptions about science concepts by using the pedagogical method of asking students to make a prediction in science laboratory lessons for students within pre-formal, transitional, or formal stages of cognitive development. The subjects were students (n = 235) enrolled in ninth grade physical science classes (n=15) in one high school of an urban profile school district. The four freshmen physical science teachers who were part of the study routinely taught the concepts in the study as a part of the normal curriculum during the time of the school year in which the research was conducted. Classrooms representing approximately half of the students were presented with a prediction phase at the start of each of ten learning cycle lesson. The other classrooms were not presented with a prediction phase. Students were pre and post tested using a 40 question instrument based on the Force Concept Inventory augmented with questions on the concepts taught during the period of the study. Students were also tested using the Test of Scientific Reasoning to determine their cognitive developmental level. Results showed 182 of the students to be cognitively pre-formal, 50 to be transitional, and only 3 to be cognitively formal. There were significantly higher gains (p < .05) for the formal group over the transitional group and for the transitional group over the Pre-formal group. However, there were not significantly higher gains (p > .05) for the total students having a prediction phase compared to those not having a prediction phase. Neither were there significant gains (p > .05) within the pre-formal group or within the transitional group. There were too few students within the formal group for meaningful results.

Association of TLL1 gene polymorphism (rs1503298, T > C) with coronary heart disease in PREDICT, UDACS and ED cohorts.

PubMed

Zain, Maryam; Awan, Fazli Rabbi; Cooper, Jackie A; Li, Ka Wah; Palmen, Jutta; Acharya, Jay; Howard, Philip; Baig, Shahid M; Elkeles, Robert S; Stephens, Jeffrey W; Ireland, Helen; Humphries, Steve E

2014-09-01

To determine the sequence variant of TLL1 gene (rs1503298, T > C) in three British cohorts (PREDICT, UDACS and ED) of patients with type-2 Diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in order to assess its association with coronary heart disease (CHD). Analytical study. UCL, London, UK. Participants were genotyped in 2011-2012 for TLL1 SNP. Samples and related information were previously collected in 2001-2003 for PREDICT, and in 2001-2002 for UDACS and ED groups. Patients included in PREDICT (n=600), UDACS (n=1020) and ED (n=1240) had Diabetes. TLL1 SNP (rs1503298, T > C) was genotyped using TaqMan technology. Allele frequencies were compared using c2 test, and tested for Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. The risk of disease was assessed from Odds ratios (OR) with 95% Confidence Intervals (95% CI). Moreover, for the PREDICT cohort, the SNP association was tested with Coronary Artery Calcification (CAC) scores. No significant association was found for this SNP with CHD or CAC scores in these cohorts. This SNP could not be confirmed as a risk factor for CHD in T2DM patients. However, the low power of thesmall sample size available is a limitation to the modest effect on risk. Further studies in larger samples would be useful.

Factors predicting weight-bearing asymmetry 1month after unilateral total knee arthroplasty: a cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Christiansen, Cory L; Bade, Michael J; Weitzenkamp, David A; Stevens-Lapsley, Jennifer E

2013-03-01

Factors predicting weight-bearing asymmetry (WBA) after unilateral total knee arthroplasty (TKA) are not known. However, identifying modifiable and non-modifiable predictors of WBA is needed to optimize rehabilitation, especially since WBA is negatively correlated to poor functional performance. The purpose of this study was to identify factors predictive of WBA during sit-stand transitions for people 1month following unilateral TKA. Fifty-nine people were tested preoperatively and 1month following unilateral TKA for WBA using average vertical ground reaction force under each foot during the Five Times Sit-to-Stand Test. Candidate variables tested in the regression analysis represented physical impairments (strength, muscle activation, pain, and motion), demographics, anthropometrics, and movement compensations. WBA, measured as the ratio of surgical/non-surgical limb vertical ground reaction force, was 0.69 (0.18) (mean (SD)) 1month after TKA. Regression analysis identified preoperative WBA (β=0.40), quadriceps strength ratio (β=0.31), and hamstrings strength ratio (β=0.19) as factors predictive of WBA 1month after TKA (R(2)=0.30). Greater amounts of WBA 1month after TKA are predicted by modifiable factors including habitual movement pattern and asymmetry in quadriceps and hamstrings strength. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Constitutive Equations and ANN Approach to Predict the Flow Stress of Ti-6Al-4V Alloy Based on ABI Tests

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Fuzeng; Zhao, Jun; Zhu, Ningbo

2016-11-01

The flow behavior of Ti-6Al-4V alloy was studied by automated ball indentation (ABI) tests in a wide range of temperatures (293, 493, 693, and 873 K) and strain rates (10-6, 10-5, and 10-4 s-1). Based on the experimental true stress-plastic strain data derived from the ABI tests, the Johnson-Cook (JC), Khan-Huang-Liang (KHL) and modified Zerilli-Armstrong (ZA) constitutive models, as well as artificial neural network (ANN) methods, were employed to predict the flow behavior of Ti-6Al-4V. A comparative study was made on the reliability of the four models, and their predictability was evaluated in terms of correlation coefficient ( R) and mean absolute percentage error. It is found that the flow stresses of Ti-6Al-4V alloy are more sensitive to temperature than strain rate under current experimental conditions. The predicted flow stresses obtained from JC model and KHL model show much better agreement with the experimental results than modified ZA model. Moreover, the ANN model is much more efficient and shows a higher accuracy in predicting the flow behavior of Ti-6Al-4V alloy than the constitutive equations.

Multivariate prediction of motor diagnosis in Huntington's disease: 12 years of PREDICT-HD.

PubMed

Long, Jeffrey D; Paulsen, Jane S

2015-10-01

It is well known in Huntington's disease that cytosine-adenine-guanine expansion and age at study entry are predictive of the timing of motor diagnosis. The goal of this study was to assess whether additional motor, imaging, cognitive, functional, psychiatric, and demographic variables measured at study entry increased the ability to predict the risk of motor diagnosis over 12 years. One thousand seventy-eight Huntington's disease gene-expanded carriers (64% female) from the Neurobiological Predictors of Huntington's Disease study were followed up for up to 12 y (mean = 5, standard deviation = 3.3) covering 2002 to 2014. No one had a motor diagnosis at study entry, but 225 (21%) carriers prospectively received a motor diagnosis. Analysis was performed with random survival forests, which is a machine learning method for right-censored data. Adding 34 variables along with cytosine-adenine-guanine and age substantially increased predictive accuracy relative to cytosine-adenine-guanine and age alone. Adding six of the common motor and cognitive variables (total motor score, diagnostic confidence level, Symbol Digit Modalities Test, three Stroop tests) resulted in lower predictive accuracy than the full set, but still had twice the 5-y predictive accuracy than when using cytosine-adenine-guanine and age alone. Additional analysis suggested interactions and nonlinear effects that were characterized in a post hoc Cox regression model. Measurement of clinical variables can substantially increase the accuracy of predicting motor diagnosis over and above cytosine-adenine-guanine and age (and their interaction). Estimated probabilities can be used to characterize progression level and aid in future studies' sample selection. © 2015 The Authors. Movement Disorders published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of International Parkinson and Movement Disorder Society.

Measurement Techniques and Instruments Suitable for Life-prediction Testing of Photovoltaic Arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Noel, G. T.; Wood, V. E.; Mcginniss, V. D.; Hassell, J. A.; Richard, N. A.; Gaines, G. B.; Carmichael, D. C.

1979-01-01

The validation of a 20-year service life for low-cost photovoltaic arrays is a critical requirement in the Low-Cost Solar Array (LSA) Project. The validation is accomplished through accelerated life-prediction tests. A two-phase study was conducted to address the needs before such tests are carried out. The results and recommended techniques from the Phase 1 investigation are summarized in the appendix. Phase 2 of the study is covered in this report and consisted of experimental evaluations of three techniques selected from these recommended as a results of the Phase 1 findings. The three techniques evaluated were specular and nonspecular optical reflectometry, chemiluminescence measurements, and electric current noise measurements.

Post-test analysis of dryout test 7B' of the W-1 Sodium Loop Safety Facility Experiment with the SABRE-2P code. [LMFBR

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Rose, S.D.; Dearing, J.F.

An understanding of conditions that may cause sodium boiling and boiling propagation that may lead to dryout and fuel failure is crucial in liquid-metal fast-breeder reactor safety. In this study, the SABRE-2P subchannel analysis code has been used to analyze the ultimate transient of the in-core W-1 Sodium Loop Safety Facility experiment. This code has a 3-D simple nondynamic boiling model which is able to predict the flow instability which caused dryout. In other analyses dryout has been predicted for out-of-core test bundles and so this study provides additional confirmation of the model.

A physical function test for use in the intensive care unit: validity, responsiveness, and predictive utility of the physical function ICU test (scored).

PubMed

Denehy, Linda; de Morton, Natalie A; Skinner, Elizabeth H; Edbrooke, Lara; Haines, Kimberley; Warrillow, Stephen; Berney, Sue

2013-12-01

Several tests have recently been developed to measure changes in patient strength and functional outcomes in the intensive care unit (ICU). The original Physical Function ICU Test (PFIT) demonstrates reliability and sensitivity. The aims of this study were to further develop the original PFIT, to derive an interval score (the PFIT-s), and to test the clinimetric properties of the PFIT-s. A nested cohort study was conducted. One hundred forty-four and 116 participants performed the PFIT at ICU admission and discharge, respectively. Original test components were modified using principal component analysis. Rasch analysis examined the unidimensionality of the PFIT, and an interval score was derived. Correlations tested validity, and multiple regression analyses investigated predictive ability. Responsiveness was assessed using the effect size index (ESI), and the minimal clinically important difference (MCID) was calculated. The shoulder lift component was removed. Unidimensionality of combined admission and discharge PFIT-s scores was confirmed. The PFIT-s displayed moderate convergent validity with the Timed "Up & Go" Test (r=-.60), the Six-Minute Walk Test (r=.41), and the Medical Research Council (MRC) sum score (rho=.49). The ESI of the PFIT-s was 0.82, and the MCID was 1.5 points (interval scale range=0-10). A higher admission PFIT-s score was predictive of: an MRC score of ≥48, increased likelihood of discharge home, reduced likelihood of discharge to inpatient rehabilitation, and reduced acute care hospital length of stay. Scoring of sit-to-stand assistance required is subjective, and cadence cutpoints used may not be generalizable. The PFIT-s is a safe and inexpensive test of physical function with high clinical utility. It is valid, responsive to change, and predictive of key outcomes. It is recommended that the PFIT-s be adopted to test physical function in the ICU.

Predicting the language proficiency of Chinese student pilots within American airspace: Single-task versus dual-task English-language assessment

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Noble, Clifford Elliott, II

2002-09-01

The problem. The purpose of this study was to investigate the ability of three single-task instruments---(a) the Test of English as a Foreign Language, (b) the Aviation Test of Spoken English, and (c) the Single Manual-Tracking Test---and three dual-task instruments---(a) the Concurrent Manual-Tracking and Communication Test, (b) the Certified Flight Instructor's Test, and (c) the Simulation-Based English Test---to predict the language performance of 10 Chinese student pilots speaking English as a second language when operating single-engine and multiengine aircraft within American airspace. Method. This research implemented a correlational design to investigate the ability of the six described instruments to predict the mean score of the criterion evaluation, which was the Examiner's Test. This test assessed the oral communication skill of student pilots on the flight portion of the terminal checkride in the Piper Cadet, Piper Seminole, and Beechcraft King Air airplanes. Results. Data from the Single Manual-Tracking Test, as well as the Concurrent Manual-Tracking and Communication Test, were discarded due to performance ceiling effects. Hypothesis 1, which stated that the average correlation between the mean scores of the dual-task evaluations and that of the Examiner's Test would predict the mean score of the criterion evaluation with a greater degree of accuracy than that of single-task evaluations, was not supported. Hypothesis 2, which stated that the correlation between the mean scores of the participants on the Simulation-Based English Test and the Examiner's Test would predict the mean score of the criterion evaluation with a greater degree of accuracy than that of all single- and dual-task evaluations, was also not supported. The findings suggest that single- and dual-task assessments administered after initial flight training are equivalent predictors of language performance when piloting single-engine and multiengine aircraft.

Comparison of intradermal dilutional testing, skin prick testing, and modified quantitative testing for common allergens.

PubMed

Peltier, Jacques; Ryan, Matthew W

2007-08-01

To compare and correlate wheal size using the Multi-Test II applicator with the endpoint obtained by intradermal dilutional testing (IDT) for 5 common allergens. To examine the safety of modified quantitative testing (MQT) for determining immunotherapy starting doses. Prospective comparative clinical study. A total of 134 subjects were simultaneously skin tested for immediate hypersensitivity using the Multi-Test II device and IDT. There was a 77% concordance between results from IDT and results from MQT. When there was a difference, MQT predicted a safer endpoint for starting immunotherapy in all but 2 cases. Wheal size by SPT is predictive of endpoint by IDT. MQT is nearly as effective as formal IDT in determining endpoint. Modified quantitative testing appears to be a safe alternative to IDT for determining starting doses for immunotherapy.

Predicting diabetes mellitus using SMOTE and ensemble machine learning approach: The Henry Ford ExercIse Testing (FIT) project.

PubMed

Alghamdi, Manal; Al-Mallah, Mouaz; Keteyian, Steven; Brawner, Clinton; Ehrman, Jonathan; Sakr, Sherif

2017-01-01

Machine learning is becoming a popular and important approach in the field of medical research. In this study, we investigate the relative performance of various machine learning methods such as Decision Tree, Naïve Bayes, Logistic Regression, Logistic Model Tree and Random Forests for predicting incident diabetes using medical records of cardiorespiratory fitness. In addition, we apply different techniques to uncover potential predictors of diabetes. This FIT project study used data of 32,555 patients who are free of any known coronary artery disease or heart failure who underwent clinician-referred exercise treadmill stress testing at Henry Ford Health Systems between 1991 and 2009 and had a complete 5-year follow-up. At the completion of the fifth year, 5,099 of those patients have developed diabetes. The dataset contained 62 attributes classified into four categories: demographic characteristics, disease history, medication use history, and stress test vital signs. We developed an Ensembling-based predictive model using 13 attributes that were selected based on their clinical importance, Multiple Linear Regression, and Information Gain Ranking methods. The negative effect of the imbalance class of the constructed model was handled by Synthetic Minority Oversampling Technique (SMOTE). The overall performance of the predictive model classifier was improved by the Ensemble machine learning approach using the Vote method with three Decision Trees (Naïve Bayes Tree, Random Forest, and Logistic Model Tree) and achieved high accuracy of prediction (AUC = 0.92). The study shows the potential of ensembling and SMOTE approaches for predicting incident diabetes using cardiorespiratory fitness data.

Relationship of Elementary and Secondary School Achievement Test Scores to Later Academic Success.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Loyd, Brenda H.; And Others

1980-01-01

This study investigated the relationship between achievement test scores on the Iowa Tests of Basic Skills (ITBS) and Iowa Tests of Educational Development (ITED), and high school and college grade point average. Support for the predictive validity of the ITBS and ITED achievement test batteries is provided. (Author/GK)

Exercise testing in children with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome: what is its value?

PubMed

Dalili, M; Vahidshahi, K; Aarabi-Moghaddam, M Y; Rao, J Y; Brugada, P

2014-10-01

This study was conducted to evaluate the accuracy of exercise testing for predicting accessory pathway characteristics in children with Wolff-Parkinson-White (WPW) syndrome. The study enrolled 37 children with WPW syndrome and candidates for invasive electrophysiologic study (EPS). Exercise testing was performed for all the study participants before the invasive study. Data from the invasive EPS were compared with findings from the exercise testing. The sudden disappearance of the delta (Δ) wave was seen in 10 cases (27 %). No significant correlation was found between the Δ wave disappearance and the antegrade effective refractory period of the accessory pathway (AERP-AP) or the shortest pre-excited RR interval (SPERRI). The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of Δ wave disappearance, based on AERP-AP as gold standard, were respectively 29.4, 80, 71.4, and 40 %. The corresponding values with SPERRI as the gold standard were respectively 23.8, 71.4, 71.4 and 23.8 %. Exercise testing has a medium to low rate of accuracy in detecting low-risk WPW syndrome patients in the pediatric age group.

An equation to predict the maximal lactate steady state from ramp-incremental exercise test data in cycling.

PubMed

Iannetta, Danilo; Fontana, Federico Y; Maturana, Felipe Mattioni; Inglis, Erin Calaine; Pogliaghi, Silvia; Keir, Daniel A; Murias, Juan M

2018-05-23

The maximal lactate steady state (MLSS) represents the highest exercise intensity at which an elevated blood lactate concentration ([Lac] b ) is stabilized above resting values. MLSS quantifies the boundary between the heavy-to-very-heavy intensity domains but its determination is not widely performed due to the number of trials required. This study aimed to: (i) develop a mathematical equation capable of predicting MLSS using variables measured during a single ramp-incremental cycling test and (ii) test the accuracy of the optimized mathematical equation. The predictive MLSS equation was determined by stepwise backward regression analysis of twelve independent variables measured in sixty individuals who had previously performed ramp-incremental exercise and in whom MLSS was known (MLSS obs ). Next, twenty-nine different individuals were prospectively recruited to test the accuracy of the equation. These participants performed ramp-incremental exercise to exhaustion and two-to-three 30-min constant-power output cycling bouts with [Lac] b sampled at regular intervals for determination of MLSS obs . Predicted MLSS (MLSS pred ) and MLSS obs in both phases of the study were compared by paired t-test, major-axis regression and Bland-Altman analysis. The predictor variables of MLSS were: respiratory compensation point (Wkg -1 ), peak oxygen uptake (V˙O 2peak ) (mlkg -1 min -1 ) and body mass (kg). MLSS pred was highly correlated with MLSS obs (r=0.93; p<0.01). When this equation was tested on the independent group, MLSS pred was not different from MLSS obs (234±43 vs. 234±44W; SEE 4.8W; r=0.99; p<0.01). These data support the validity of the predictive MLSS equation. We advocate its use as a time-efficient alternative to traditional MLSS testing in cycling. Copyright © 2018 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Predictive value of background experiences and visual spatial ability testing on laparoscopic baseline performance among residents entering postgraduate surgical training.

PubMed

Louridas, Marisa; Quinn, Lauren E; Grantcharov, Teodor P

2016-03-01

Emerging evidence suggests that despite dedicated practice, not all surgical trainees have the ability to reach technical competency in minimally invasive techniques. While selecting residents that have the ability to reach technical competence is important, evidence to guide the incorporation of technical ability into selection processes is limited. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to evaluate whether background experiences and 2D-3D visual spatial test results are predictive of baseline laparoscopic skill for the novice surgical trainee. First-year residents were studied. Demographic data and background surgical and non-surgical experiences were obtained using a questionnaire. Visual spatial ability was evaluated using the PicSOr, cube comparison (CC) and card rotation (CR) tests. Technical skill was assessed using the camera navigation (LCN) task and laparoscopic circle cut (LCC) task. Resident performance on these technical tasks was compared and correlated with the questionnaire and visual spatial findings. Previous experience in observing laparoscopic procedures was associated with significantly better LCN performance, and experience in navigating the laparoscopic camera was associated with significantly better LCC task results. Residents who scored higher on the CC test demonstrated a more accurate LCN path length score (r s(PL) = -0.36, p = 0.03) and angle path (r s(AP) = -0.426, p = 0.01) score when completing the LCN task. No other significant correlations were found between the visual spatial tests (PicSOr, CC or CR) and LCC performance. While identifying selection tests for incoming surgical trainees that predict technical skill performance is appealing, the surrogate markers evaluated correlate with specific metrics of surgical performance related to a single task but do not appear to reliably predict technical performance of different laparoscopic tasks. Predicting the acquisition of technical skills will require the development of a series of evidence-based tests that measure a number of innate abilities as well as their inherent interactions.

Transformational leadership, intrinsic motivation, and trust: a moderated-mediated model of workplace safety.

PubMed

Conchie, Stacey M

2013-04-01

Two studies examine the role of motivation and trust in the relationship between safety-specific transformational leadership and employees' safety behavior. Study 1 tested the prediction that intrinsic and identified regulation motivations mediate the relationship between safety-specific transformational leadership and employees' safety behaviors. Study 2 further explored this relationship by testing the prediction that the mediating role of intrinsic motivation is dependent on employees' level of trust in their leader. Survey data from the U.K. construction industry supported both predictions. However, the mediating role of intrinsic motivation was found only for challenge safety citizenship behaviors (i.e., voice) and not for affiliative safety citizenship behaviors (i.e., helping). These findings suggest that employees' intrinsic motivation is important to the effectiveness of leaders' efforts to promote some but not all forms of safety behavior.

Load reduction test method of similarity theory and BP neural networks of large cranes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yang, Ruigang; Duan, Zhibin; Lu, Yi; Wang, Lei; Xu, Gening

2016-01-01

Static load tests are an important means of supervising and detecting a crane's lift capacity. Due to space restrictions, however, there are difficulties and potential danger when testing large bridge cranes. To solve the loading problems of large-tonnage cranes during testing, an equivalency test is proposed based on the similarity theory and BP neural networks. The maximum stress and displacement of a large bridge crane is tested in small loads, combined with the training neural network of a similar structure crane through stress and displacement data which is collected by a physics simulation progressively loaded to a static load test load within the material scope of work. The maximum stress and displacement of a crane under a static load test load can be predicted through the relationship of stress, displacement, and load. By measuring the stress and displacement of small tonnage weights, the stress and displacement of large loads can be predicted, such as the maximum load capacity, which is 1.25 times the rated capacity. Experimental study shows that the load reduction test method can reflect the lift capacity of large bridge cranes. The load shedding predictive analysis for Sanxia 1200 t bridge crane test data indicates that when the load is 1.25 times the rated lifting capacity, the predicted displacement and actual displacement error is zero. The method solves the problem that lifting capacities are difficult to obtain and testing accidents are easily possible when 1.25 times related weight loads are tested for large tonnage cranes.

A correlative study between analysis and experiment on the fracture behavior of graphite/epoxy composites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Yeow, Y. T.; Morris, D. H.; Brinson, H. F.

1979-01-01

The paper compares the fracture behavior of a composite material by using the analytical models of Waddoups et al. (1971), Whitney and Nuismer (1974, 1975), and Snyder and Cruse (1975) with experimental results from tests performed on center-notched tensile strips. Laminate configurations of (0 deg)8s, (0 deg/90 deg)4s, (+ and -45 deg)4s, and (0 deg/+ and -45 deg/0 deg)2s from T300/934 graphite/epoxy are tested. These particular configurations are used so that the effect of various degrees of anisotropy can be studied. The procedure adopted uses the results from one test for crack size aspect ratio to predict the results of tests of other aspect ratios. For those methods that use a characteristic dimension, predictions are made by assuming the magnitude of this dimension to be constant. The validity of this assumption for a laminate is assessed by comparing predicted and experimental results. Analytical models using a characteristic dimension are compared to the model developed by Cruse (1973).

Unified Sequence-Based Association Tests Allowing for Multiple Functional Annotations and Meta-analysis of Noncoding Variation in Metabochip Data.

PubMed

He, Zihuai; Xu, Bin; Lee, Seunggeun; Ionita-Laza, Iuliana

2017-09-07

Substantial progress has been made in the functional annotation of genetic variation in the human genome. Integrative analysis that incorporates such functional annotations into sequencing studies can aid the discovery of disease-associated genetic variants, especially those with unknown function and located outside protein-coding regions. Direct incorporation of one functional annotation as weight in existing dispersion and burden tests can suffer substantial loss of power when the functional annotation is not predictive of the risk status of a variant. Here, we have developed unified tests that can utilize multiple functional annotations simultaneously for integrative association analysis with efficient computational techniques. We show that the proposed tests significantly improve power when variant risk status can be predicted by functional annotations. Importantly, when functional annotations are not predictive of risk status, the proposed tests incur only minimal loss of power in relation to existing dispersion and burden tests, and under certain circumstances they can even have improved power by learning a weight that better approximates the underlying disease model in a data-adaptive manner. The tests can be constructed with summary statistics of existing dispersion and burden tests for sequencing data, therefore allowing meta-analysis of multiple studies without sharing individual-level data. We applied the proposed tests to a meta-analysis of noncoding rare variants in Metabochip data on 12,281 individuals from eight studies for lipid traits. By incorporating the Eigen functional score, we detected significant associations between noncoding rare variants in SLC22A3 and low-density lipoprotein and total cholesterol, associations that are missed by standard dispersion and burden tests. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Prediction of leaf area in individual leaves of cherrybark oak seedlings (Quercus pagoda Raf.)

Treesearch

Yanfei Guo; Brian Lockhart; John Hodges

1995-01-01

The prediction of leaf area for cherrybark oak (Quercus pagoda Raf.) seedlings is important for studying the physiology of the species. Linear and polynomial models involving leaf length, width, fresh weight, dry weight, and internodal length were tested independently and collectively to predict leaf area. Twenty-nine cherrybark oak seedlings were...

Generalization Gradients in Human Predictive Learning: Effects of Discrimination Training and within-Subjects Testing

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Vervliet, Bram; Iberico, Carlos; Vervoort, Ellen; Baeyens, Frank

2011-01-01

Generalization gradients have been investigated widely in animal conditioning experiments, but much less so in human predictive learning tasks. Here, we apply the experimental design of a recent study on conditioned fear generalization in humans (Lissek et al., 2008) to a predictive learning task, and examine the effects of a number of relevant…

Psychopathy, IQ, and Violence in European American and African American County Jail Inmates

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walsh, Zach; Swogger, Marc T.; Kosson, David S.

2004-01-01

The accuracy of the prediction of criminal violence may be improved by combining psychopathy with other variables that have been found to predict violence. Research has suggested that assessing intelligence (i.e., IQ) as well as psychopathy improves the accuracy of violence prediction. In the present study, the authors tested this hypothesis by…

The Usability of Noise Level from Rock Cutting for the Prediction of Physico-Mechanical Properties of Rocks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Delibalta, M. S.; Kahraman, S.; Comakli, R.

2015-11-01

Because the indirect tests are easier and cheaper than the direct tests, the prediction of rock properties from the indirect testing methods is important especially for the preliminary investigations. In this study, the predictability of the physico-mechanical rock properties from the noise level measured during cutting rock with diamond saw was investigated. Noise measurement test, uniaxial compressive strength (UCS) test, Brazilian tensile strength (BTS) test, point load strength (Is) test, density test, and porosity test were carried out on 54 different rock types in the laboratory. The results were statistically analyzed to derive estimation equations. Strong correlations between the noise level and the mechanical rock properties were found. The relations follow power functions. Increasing rock strength increases the noise level. Density and porosity also correlated strongly with the noise level. The relations follow linear functions. Increasing density increases the noise level while increasing porosity decreases the noise level. The developed equations are valid for the rocks with a compressive strength below 150 MPa. Concluding remark is that the physico-mechanical rock properties can reliably be estimated from the noise level measured during cutting the rock with diamond saw.

Biorelevant in vitro performance testing of orally administered dosage forms-workshop report.

PubMed

Reppas, Christos; Friedel, Horst-Dieter; Barker, Amy R; Buhse, Lucinda F; Cecil, Todd L; Keitel, Susanne; Kraemer, Johannes; Morris, J Michael; Shah, Vinod P; Stickelmeyer, Mary P; Yomota, Chikako; Brown, Cynthia K

2014-07-01

Biorelevant in vitro performance testing of orally administered dosage forms has become an important tool for the assessment of drug product in vivo behavior. An in vitro performance test which mimics the intraluminal performance of an oral dosage form is termed biorelevant. Biorelevant tests have been utilized to decrease the number of in vivo studies required during the drug development process and to mitigate the risk related to in vivo bioequivalence studies. This report reviews the ability of current in vitro performance tests to predict in vivo performance and generate successful in vitro and in vivo correlations for oral dosage forms. It also summarizes efforts to improve the predictability of biorelevant tests. The report is based on the presentations at the 2013 workshop, Biorelevant In Vitro Performance Testing of Orally Administered Dosage Forms, in Washington, DC, sponsored by the FIP Dissolution/Drug Release Focus Group in partnership with the American Association of Pharmaceutical Scientists (AAPS) and a symposium at the AAPS 2012 Annual meeting on the same topic.

Wheelchair Shuttle Test for Assessing Aerobic Fitness in Youth With Spina Bifida: Validity and Reliability

PubMed Central

de Groot, Janke F.; Backx, Frank J.G.; Benner, Joyce; Kruitwagen, Cas L.J.J.; Takken, Tim

2017-01-01

Abstract Background Testing aerobic fitness in youth is important because of expected relationships with health. Objective The purpose of the study was to estimate the validity and reliability of the Shuttle Ride Test in youth who have spina bifida and use a wheelchair for mobility and sport. Design Ths study is a validity and reliability study. Methods The Shuttle Ride Test, Graded Wheelchair Propulsion Test, and skill-related fitness tests were administered to 33 participants for the validity study (age = 14.5 ± 3.1 y) and to 28 participants for the reliability study (age = 14.7 ± 3.3 y). Results No significant differences were found between the Graded Wheelchair Propulsion Test and the Shuttle Ride Test for most cardiorespiratory responses. Correlations between the Graded Wheelchair Propulsion Test and the Shuttle Ride Test were moderate to high (r = .55–.97). The variance in peak oxygen uptake (VO2peak) could be predicted for 77% of the participants by height, number of shuttles completed, and weight, with large prediction intervals. High correlations were found between number of shuttles completed and skill-related fitness tests (CI = .73 to −.92). Intraclass correlation coefficients were high (.77–.98), with a smallest detectable change of 1.5 for number of shuttles completed and with coefficients of variation of 6.2% and 6.4% for absolute VO2peak and relative VO2peak, respectively. Conclusions When measuring VO2peak directly by using a mobile gas analysis system, the Shuttle Ride Test is highly valid for testing VO2peak in youth who have spina bifida and use a wheelchair for mobility and sport. The outcome measure of number of shuttles represents aerobic fitness and is also highly correlated with both anaerobic performance and agility. It is not possible to predict VO2peak accurately by using the number of shuttles completed. Moreover, the Shuttle Ride Test is highly reliable in youth with spina bifida, with a good smallest detectable change for the number of shuttles completed. PMID:29029556

Predictive Validity of the MCAT as a Function of Undergraduate Institution.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Zeleznik, Carter; And Others

1987-01-01

A study examining how the Medical College Admission Test's (MCAT) ability to predict early medical school performance differed for students from different undergraduate institutions raised questions about the use of the MCAT for admissions decisions. (MSE)

Prediction of Dementia in Primary Care Patients

PubMed Central

Jessen, Frank; Wiese, Birgitt; Bickel, Horst; Eiffländer-Gorfer, Sandra; Fuchs, Angela; Kaduszkiewicz, Hanna; Köhler, Mirjam; Luck, Tobias; Mösch, Edelgard; Pentzek, Michael; Riedel-Heller, Steffi G.; Wagner, Michael; Weyerer, Siegfried; Maier, Wolfgang; van den Bussche, Hendrik

2011-01-01

Background Current approaches for AD prediction are based on biomarkers, which are however of restricted availability in primary care. AD prediction tools for primary care are therefore needed. We present a prediction score based on information that can be obtained in the primary care setting. Methodology/Principal Findings We performed a longitudinal cohort study in 3.055 non-demented individuals above 75 years recruited via primary care chart registries (Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia, AgeCoDe). After the baseline investigation we performed three follow-up investigations at 18 months intervals with incident dementia as the primary outcome. The best set of predictors was extracted from the baseline variables in one randomly selected half of the sample. This set included age, subjective memory impairment, performance on delayed verbal recall and verbal fluency, on the Mini-Mental-State-Examination, and on an instrumental activities of daily living scale. These variables were aggregated to a prediction score, which achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.84 for AD. The score was applied to the second half of the sample (test cohort). Here, the prediction accuracy was 0.79. With a cut-off of at least 80% sensitivity in the first cohort, 79.6% sensitivity, 66.4% specificity, 14.7% positive predictive value (PPV) and 97.8% negative predictive value of (NPV) for AD were achieved in the test cohort. At a cut-off for a high risk population (5% of individuals with the highest risk score in the first cohort) the PPV for AD was 39.1% (52% for any dementia) in the test cohort. Conclusions The prediction score has useful prediction accuracy. It can define individuals (1) sensitively for low cost-low risk interventions, or (2) more specific and with increased PPV for measures of prevention with greater costs or risks. As it is independent of technical aids, it may be used within large scale prevention programs. PMID:21364746