Occupancy patterns of regionally declining grassland sparrow populations in a forested Pennsylvania landscape.

PubMed

Hill, Jason M; Diefenbach, Duane R

2014-06-01

Organisms can be affected by processes in the surrounding landscape outside the boundary of habitat areas and by local vegetation characteristics. There is substantial interest in understanding how these processes affect populations of grassland birds, which have experienced substantial population declines. Much of our knowledge regarding patterns of occupancy and density stem from prairie systems, whereas relatively little is known regarding how occurrence and abundance of grassland birds vary in reclaimed surface mine grasslands. Using distance sampling and single-season occupancy models, we investigated how the occupancy probability of Grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum) and Henslow's Sparrows (A. henslowii) on 61 surface mine grasslands (1591 ha) in Pennsylvania changed from 2002 through 2011 in response to landscape, grassland, and local vegetation characteristics . A subset (n = 23; 784 ha) of those grasslands were surveyed in 2002, and we estimated changes in sparrow density and vegetation across 10 years. Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrow populations declined 72% and 49%, respectively from 2002 to 2011, whereas overall woody vegetation density increased 2.6 fold. Henslow's Sparrows avoided grasslands with perimeter-area ratios ≥0.141 km/ha and woody shrub densities ≥0.04 shrubs/m(2). Both species occupied grasslands ≤13 ha, but occupancy probability declined with increasing grassland perimeter-area ratio and woody shrub density. Grassland size, proximity to nearest neighboring grassland (x = 0.2 km), and surrounding landscape composition at 0.5, 1.5, and 3.0 km were not parsimonious predictors of occupancy probability for either species. Our results suggest that reclaimed surface mine grasslands, without management intervention, are ephemeral habitats for Grasshopper and Henslow's Sparrows. Given the forecasted decline in surface coal production for Pennsylvania, it is likely that both species will continue to decline in our study region for the foreseeable future. © 2014 Society for Conservation Biology.

Sport hunting, predator control and conservation of large carnivores.

PubMed

Packer, Craig; Kosmala, Margaret; Cooley, Hilary S; Brink, Henry; Pintea, Lilian; Garshelis, David; Purchase, Gianetta; Strauss, Megan; Swanson, Alexandra; Balme, Guy; Hunter, Luke; Nowell, Kristin

2009-06-17

Sport hunting has provided important economic incentives for conserving large predators since the early 1970's, but wildlife managers also face substantial pressure to reduce depredation. Sport hunting is an inherently risky strategy for controlling predators as carnivore populations are difficult to monitor and some species show a propensity for infanticide that is exacerbated by removing adult males. Simulation models predict population declines from even moderate levels of hunting in infanticidal species, and harvest data suggest that African countries and U.S. states with the highest intensity of sport hunting have shown the steepest population declines in African lions and cougars over the past 25 yrs. Similar effects in African leopards may have been masked by mesopredator release owing to declines in sympatric lion populations, whereas there is no evidence of overhunting in non-infanticidal populations of American black bears. Effective conservation of these animals will require new harvest strategies and improved monitoring to counter demands for predator control by livestock producers and local communities.

Sport Hunting, Predator Control and Conservation of Large Carnivores

PubMed Central

Packer, Craig; Kosmala, Margaret; Cooley, Hilary S.; Brink, Henry; Pintea, Lilian; Garshelis, David; Purchase, Gianetta; Strauss, Megan; Swanson, Alexandra; Balme, Guy; Hunter, Luke; Nowell, Kristin

2009-01-01

Sport hunting has provided important economic incentives for conserving large predators since the early 1970's, but wildlife managers also face substantial pressure to reduce depredation. Sport hunting is an inherently risky strategy for controlling predators as carnivore populations are difficult to monitor and some species show a propensity for infanticide that is exacerbated by removing adult males. Simulation models predict population declines from even moderate levels of hunting in infanticidal species, and harvest data suggest that African countries and U.S. states with the highest intensity of sport hunting have shown the steepest population declines in African lions and cougars over the past 25 yrs. Similar effects in African leopards may have been masked by mesopredator release owing to declines in sympatric lion populations, whereas there is no evidence of overhunting in non-infanticidal populations of American black bears. Effective conservation of these animals will require new harvest strategies and improved monitoring to counter demands for predator control by livestock producers and local communities. PMID:19536277

Role of egg predation by haddock in the decline of an Atlantic herring population

PubMed Central

Richardson, David E.; Hare, Jonathan A.; Fogarty, Michael J.; Link, Jason S.

2011-01-01

Theoretical studies suggest that the abrupt and substantial changes in the productivity of some fisheries species may be explained by predation-driven alternate stable states in their population levels. With this hypothesis, an increase in fishing or a natural perturbation can drive a population from an upper to a lower stable-equilibrium population level. After fishing is reduced or the perturbation ended, this low population level can persist due to the regulatory effect of the predator. Although established in theoretical studies, there is limited empirical support for predation-driven alternate stable states in exploited marine fish populations. We present evidence that egg predation by haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) can cause alternate stable population levels in Georges Bank Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus). Egg predation by haddock explains a substantial decoupling of herring spawning stock biomass (an index of egg production) from observed larval herring abundance (an index of egg hatching). Estimated egg survival rates ranged from <2–70% from 1971 to 2005. A population model incorporating egg predation and herring fishing explains the major population trends of Georges Bank herring over four decades and predicts that, when the haddock population is high, seemingly conservative levels of fishing can still precipitate a severe decline in the herring population. These findings illustrate how efforts to rebuild fisheries can be undermined by not incorporating ecological interactions into fisheries models and management plans. PMID:21825166

Detecting declines in the abundance of a bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) population: Understanding the accuracy, precision, and costs of our efforts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Chokhachy, R.; Budy, P.; Conner, M.

2009-01-01

Using empirical field data for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus), we evaluated the trade-off between power and sampling effort-cost using Monte Carlo simulations of commonly collected mark-recapture-resight and count data, and we estimated the power to detect changes in abundance across different time intervals. We also evaluated the effects of monitoring different components of a population and stratification methods on the precision of each method. Our results illustrate substantial variability in the relative precision, cost, and information gained from each approach. While grouping estimates by age or stage class substantially increased the precision of estimates, spatial stratification of sampling units resulted in limited increases in precision. Although mark-resight methods allowed for estimates of abundance versus indices of abundance, our results suggest snorkel surveys may be a more affordable monitoring approach across large spatial scales. Detecting a 25% decline in abundance after 5 years was not possible, regardless of technique (power = 0.80), without high sampling effort (48% of study site). Detecting a 25% decline was possible after 15 years, but still required high sampling efforts. Our results suggest detecting moderate changes in abundance of freshwater salmonids requires considerable resource and temporal commitments and highlight the difficulties of using abundance measures for monitoring bull trout populations.

Some macroeconomic aspects of global population aging.

PubMed

Lee, Ronald; Mason, Andrew

2010-01-01

Across the demographic transition, declining mortality followed by declining fertility produces decades of rising support ratios as child dependency falls. These improving support ratios raise per capita consumption, other things equal, but eventually deteriorate as the population ages. Population aging and the forces leading to it can produce not only frightening declines in support ratios but also very substantial increases in productivity and per capita income by raising investment in physical and human capital. Longer life, lower fertility, and population aging all raise the demand for wealth needed to provide for old-age consumption. This leads to increased capital per worker even as aggregate saving rates fall. However, capital per worker may not rise if the increased demand for wealth is satisfied by increased familial or public pension transfers to the elderly. Thus, institutions and policies matter for the consequences of population aging. The accumulation of human capital also varies across the transition. Lower fertility and mortality are associated with higher human capital investment per child, also raising labor productivity. Together, the positive changes due to human and physical capital accumulation will likely outweigh the problems of declining support ratios. We draw on estimates and analyses from the National Transfer Accounts project to illustrate and quantify these points.

Decline of flounder (Platichthys flesus (L.)) at the margin of the species' distribution range

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jokinen, Henri; Wennhage, Håkan; Lappalainen, Antti; Ådjers, Kaj; Rask, Martti; Norkko, Alf

2015-11-01

The Baltic Sea is undergoing large-scale environmental change due to eutrophication, climate change, over-exploitation and habitat destruction, with subsequent degradation of living conditions for many fish species. Signs of this unfavorable development are seen as population declines in species affected. We provide the first synthesis and characterization of the recent population decline in European flounder (Platichthys flesus (L.)) in the northern Baltic Sea, using available fishery-independent data from the Finnish coast, which is at the margin of the distribution range of this species. The objective was to document recent changes in the flounder population, identify the onset and quantify the magnitude of the change. The results showed substantial decreases in flounder numbers and biomass across the whole study area during recent decades. Based on the time series data available, flounder abundances declined by 46-97% from the 1990s to the 2000s, with top values in the mid-1990s and current low levels reached in the early 2000s. Additionally, signs of decreasing flounder size and condition were also observed. We discuss potential reasons for the development in terms of environmental change and fishing, and identify potential bottlenecks for population maintenance and mechanisms behind population change, thereby contributing to our general understanding of marginal flounder populations.

Musculoskeletal disorders as underlying cause of death in 58 countries, 1986-2011: trend analysis of WHO mortality database.

PubMed

Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Woolf, Anthony D; Englund, Martin

2017-02-02

Due to low mortality rate of musculoskeletal disorders (MSK) less attention has been paid to MSK as underlying cause of death in the general population. The aim was to examine trend in MSK as underlying cause of death in 58 countries across globe during 1986-2011. Data on mortality were collected from the WHO mortality database and population data were obtained from the United Nations. Annual sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR) were calculated by means of direct standardization using the WHO world standard population. We applied joinpoint regression analysis for trend analysis. Between-country disparities were examined using between-country variance and Gini coefficient. The changes in number of MSK deaths between 1986 and 2011 were decomposed using two counterfactual scenarios. The number of MSK deaths increased by 67% between 1986 and 2011 mainly due to population aging. The mean ASMR changed from 17.2 and 26.6 per million in 1986 to 18.1 and 25.1 in 2011 among men and women, respectively (median: 7.3% increase in men and 9.0% reduction in women). Declines in ASMR of 25% or more were observed for men (women) in 13 (19) countries, while corresponding increases were seen for men (women) in 25 (14) countries. In both sexes, ASMR declined during 1986-1997, then increased during 1997-2001 and again declined over 2001-2011. Despite decline over time, there were substantial between-country disparities in MSK mortality and its temporal trend. We found substantial variations in MSK mortality and its trends between countries, regions and also between sex and age groups. Promoted awareness and better management of MSK might partly explain reduction in MSK mortality, but variations across countries warrant further investigations.

Trends in transit-oriented development 2000-2010.

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2014-05-01

After decades of decline, public transportation ridership grew 36 percent from 1995 through 2008, almost three times the growth rate of : the U.S. population (14%) and substantially more than the growth for vehicle miles of travel on our nations s...

Effect of continued treatment with pirfenidone following clinically meaningful declines in forced vital capacity: analysis of data from three phase 3 trials in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.

PubMed

Nathan, Steven D; Albera, Carlo; Bradford, Williamson Z; Costabel, Ulrich; du Bois, Roland M; Fagan, Elizabeth A; Fishman, Robert S; Glaspole, Ian; Glassberg, Marilyn K; Glasscock, Kenneth F; King, Talmadge E; Lancaster, Lisa; Lederer, David J; Lin, Zhengning; Pereira, Carlos A; Swigris, Jeffrey J; Valeyre, Dominique; Noble, Paul W; Wells, Athol U

2016-05-01

The assessment of treatment response in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is complicated by the variable clinical course. We examined the variability in the rate of disease progression and evaluated the effect of continued treatment with pirfenidone in patients who experienced meaningful progression during treatment. The source population included patients enrolled in the ASCEND and CAPACITY trials (N=1247). Pearson's correlation coefficients were used to characterise the relationship between changes in FVC during consecutive 6-month intervals in the placebo population. Outcomes following a ≥10% decline in FVC were evaluated by comparing the proportion of patients in the pirfenidone and placebo groups who experienced a ≥10% decline in FVC or death during the subsequent 6 months. A weak negative correlation was observed between FVC changes during consecutive intervals in the placebo population (coefficient, -0.146, p<0.001), indicating substantial variability. Thirty-four (5.5%) and 68 (10.9%) patients in the pirfenidone and placebo groups, respectively, experienced a ≥10% decline in FVC by month 6. During the subsequent 6 months, fewer patients in the pirfenidone group compared with placebo experienced a ≥10% decline in FVC or death (5.9% vs 27.9%; relative difference, 78.9%). There was one (2.9%) death in the pirfenidone group and 14 (20.6%) deaths in the placebo group (relative difference, 85.7%). Longitudinal FVC data from patients with IPF showed substantial intrasubject variability, underscoring the inability to reliably assess therapeutic response using serial FVC trends. In patients who progressed during treatment, continued treatment with pirfenidone resulted in a lower risk of subsequent FVC decline or death. NCT01366209, NCT00287729, NCT00287716. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Effect of continued treatment with pirfenidone following clinically meaningful declines in forced vital capacity: analysis of data from three phase 3 trials in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

PubMed Central

Nathan, Steven D; Albera, Carlo; Bradford, Williamson Z; Costabel, Ulrich; du Bois, Roland M; Fagan, Elizabeth A; Fishman, Robert S; Glaspole, Ian; Glassberg, Marilyn K; King, Talmadge E; Lancaster, Lisa; Lederer, David J; Lin, Zhengning; Pereira, Carlos A; Swigris, Jeffrey J; Valeyre, Dominique; Noble, Paul W; Wells, Athol U

2016-01-01

Background The assessment of treatment response in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is complicated by the variable clinical course. We examined the variability in the rate of disease progression and evaluated the effect of continued treatment with pirfenidone in patients who experienced meaningful progression during treatment. Methods The source population included patients enrolled in the ASCEND and CAPACITY trials (N=1247). Pearson's correlation coefficients were used to characterise the relationship between changes in FVC during consecutive 6-month intervals in the placebo population. Outcomes following a ≥10% decline in FVC were evaluated by comparing the proportion of patients in the pirfenidone and placebo groups who experienced a ≥10% decline in FVC or death during the subsequent 6 months. Results A weak negative correlation was observed between FVC changes during consecutive intervals in the placebo population (coefficient, −0.146, p<0.001), indicating substantial variability. Thirty-four (5.5%) and 68 (10.9%) patients in the pirfenidone and placebo groups, respectively, experienced a ≥10% decline in FVC by month 6. During the subsequent 6 months, fewer patients in the pirfenidone group compared with placebo experienced a ≥10% decline in FVC or death (5.9% vs 27.9%; relative difference, 78.9%). There was one (2.9%) death in the pirfenidone group and 14 (20.6%) deaths in the placebo group (relative difference, 85.7%). Conclusions Longitudinal FVC data from patients with IPF showed substantial intrasubject variability, underscoring the inability to reliably assess therapeutic response using serial FVC trends. In patients who progressed during treatment, continued treatment with pirfenidone resulted in a lower risk of subsequent FVC decline or death. Trial registration numbers NCT01366209, NCT00287729, NCT00287716. PMID:26968970

Highest drought sensitivity and lowest resistance to growth suppression are found in the range core of the tree Fagus sylvatica L. not the equatorial range edge.

PubMed

Cavin, Liam; Jump, Alistair S

2017-01-01

Biogeographical and ecological theory suggests that species distributions should be driven to higher altitudes and latitudes as global temperatures rise. Such changes occur as growth improves at the poleward edge of a species distribution and declines at the range edge in the opposite or equatorial direction, mirrored by changes in the establishment of new individuals. A substantial body of evidence demonstrates that such processes are underway for a wide variety of species. Case studies from populations at the equatorial range edge of a variety of woody species have led us to understand that widespread growth decline and distributional shifts are underway. However, in apparent contrast, other studies report high productivity and reproduction in some range edge populations. We sought to assess temporal trends in the growth of the widespread European beech tree (Fagus sylvatica) across its latitudinal range. We explored the stability of populations to major drought events and the implications for predicted widespread growth decline at its equatorial range edge. In contrast to expectations, we found greatest sensitivity and low resistance to drought in the core of the species range, whilst dry range edge populations showed particularly high resistance to drought and little evidence of drought-linked growth decline. We hypothesize that this high range edge resistance to drought is driven primarily by local environmental factors that allow relict populations to persist despite regionally unfavourable climate. The persistence of such populations demonstrates that range-edge decline is not ubiquitous and is likely to be driven by declining population density at the landscape scale rather than sudden and widespread range retraction. © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

USGS Publications Warehouse

Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

2016-01-01

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish.

PubMed

Sakaris, Peter C; Irwin, Elise R

2010-03-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotic fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes.

Browsing patterns of white-tailed deer following increased timber harvest and a decline in population density

Treesearch

Shawn M. Crimmins; John W. Edwards; W. Mark Ford; Patrick D. Keyser; James M. Crum

2010-01-01

We examined browsing patterns of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) on a site in the central Appalachians that experienced a substantial (>50%) reduction in deer population density and an increase in the amount of timber harvest since 2001. We sampled woody browse in and immediately adjacent to 12 clearcuts ranging in age from 0-5 years...

Decline in relative abundance of bottlenose dolphins exposed to long-term disturbance.

PubMed

Bejder, Lars; Samuels, Amy; Whitehead, Hal; Gales, Nick; Mann, Janet; Connor, Richard; Heithaus, Mike; Watson-Capps, Jana; Flaherty, Cindy; Krützen, Michael

2006-12-01

Studies evaluating effects of human activity on wildlife typically emphasize short-term behavioral responses from which it is difficult to infer biological significance or formulate plans to mitigate harmful impacts. Based on decades of detailed behavioral records, we evaluated long-term impacts of vessel activity on bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops sp.) in Shark Bay, Australia. We compared dolphin abundance within adjacent 36-km2 tourism and control sites, over three consecutive 4.5-year periods wherein research activity was relatively constant but tourism levels increased from zero, to one, to two dolphin-watching operators. A nonlinear logistic model demonstrated that there was no difference in dolphin abundance between periods with no tourism and periods in which one operator offered tours. As the number of tour operators increased to two, there was a significant average decline in dolphin abundance (14.9%; 95% CI=-20.8 to -8.23), approximating a decline of one per seven individuals. Concurrently, within the control site, the average increase in dolphin abundance was not significant (8.5%; 95% CI=-4.0 to +16.7). Given the substantially greater presence and proximity of tour vessels to dolphins relative to research vessels, tour-vessel activity contributed more to declining dolphin numbers within the tourism site than research vessels. Although this trend may not jeopardize the large, genetically diverse dolphin population of Shark Bay, the decline is unlikely to be sustainable for local dolphin tourism. A similar decline would be devastating for small, closed, resident, or endangered cetacean populations. The substantial effect of tour vessels on dolphin abundance in a region of low-level tourism calls into question the presumption that dolphin-watching tourism is benign.

Effects of harvest and climate on population dynamics of northern bobwhites in south Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rolland, V.; Hostetler, J.A.; Hines, T.C.; Johnson, F.A.; Percival, H.F.; Oli, M.K.

2011-01-01

Context Hunting-related (hereafter harvest) mortality is assumed to be compensatory in many exploited species. However, when harvest mortality is additive, hunting can lead to population declines, especially on public land where hunting pressure can be intense. Recent studies indicate that excessive hunting may have contributed to the decline of a northern bobwhite (Colinus virginianus) population in south Florida. Aims This study aimed to estimate population growth rates to determine potential and actual contribution of vital rates to annual changes in population growth rates, and to evaluate the role of harvest and climatic variables on bobwhite population decline. Methods We used demographic parameters estimated from a six-year study to parameterise population matrix models and conduct prospective and retrospective perturbation analyses. Key results The stochastic population growth rate (?? S=0.144) was proportionally more sensitive to adult winter survival and survival of fledglings, nests and broods from first nesting attempts; the same variables were primarily responsible for annual changes in population growth rate. Demographic parameters associated with second nesting attempts made virtually no contribution to population growth rate. All harvest scenarios consistently revealed a substantial impact of harvest on bobwhite population dynamics. If the lowest harvest level recorded in the study period (i.e. 0.08 birds harvested per day per km2 in 2008) was applied, S would increase by 32.1%. Winter temperatures and precipitation negatively affected winter survival, and precipitation acted synergistically with harvest in affecting winter survival. Conclusions Our results suggest that reduction in winter survival due to overharvest has been an important cause of the decline in our study population, but that climatic factors might have also played a role. Thus, for management actions to be effective, assessing the contribution of primary (e.g. harvesting) but also secondary factors (e.g. climate) to population decline may be necessary. Implications Reducing hunting pressure would be necessary for the recovery of the bobwhite population at our study site. In addition, an adaptive harvest management strategy that considers weather conditions in setting harvest quota would help reverse the population decline further. ?? 2011 CSIRO.

Modeling predator habitat to enhance reintroduction planning

Treesearch

Shiloh M. Halsey; William J. Zielinski; Robert M. Scheller

2015-01-01

Context The success of species reintroduction often depends on predation risk and spatial estimates of predator habitat. The fisher (Pekania pennanti) is a species of conservation concern and populations in the western United States have declined substantially in the last century. Reintroduction plans are underway, but the ability...

Kinship and the decline of fertility.

PubMed

Zhou, Y

1996-01-01

China's family planning and population control policies, together with the move toward a more market-oriented economy since the 1980s, have led to significant change in people's reproductive values and behavior and a substantial decline in fertility. Traditional kinship in China, its terminology, and the impact of fertility decline on kinship in China and Chinese society are discussed. The decline in fertility is affecting or will affect China's kinship system, the corresponding pattern of terminology, and the social structure. In the more market-oriented economy which has been developing in China, the simplification of the kinship system will help change the structure of Chinese society and weaken the traditional patriarchal culture. A more individualized, contractualized social structure and relationships will result.

Landscape effects on extremely fragmented populations of a rare solitary bee, Colletes floralis.

PubMed

Davis, Emily S; Murray, Tomás E; Fitzpatrick, Una; Brown, Mark J F; Paxton, Robert J

2010-11-01

Globally, there is concern over the decline of bees, an ecologically important group of pollinating insects. Genetic studies provide insights into population structure that are crucial for conservation management but that would be impossible to obtain by conventional ecological methods. Yet conservation genetic studies of bees have primarily focussed on social species rather than the more species-rich solitary bees. Here, we investigate the population structure of Colletes floralis, a rare and threatened solitary mining bee, in Ireland and Scotland using nine microsatellite loci. Genetic diversity was surprisingly as high in Scottish (Hebridean island) populations at the extreme northwestern edge of the species range as in mainland Irish populations further south. Extremely high genetic differentiation among populations was detected; multilocus F(ST) was up to 0.53, and and D(est) were even higher (maximum: 0.85 and 1.00, respectively). A pattern of isolation by distance was evident for sites separated by land. Water appears to act as a substantial barrier to gene flow yet sites separated by sea did not exhibit isolation by distance. C. floralis populations are extremely isolated and probably not in regional migration-drift equilibrium. GIS-based landscape genetic analysis reveals urban areas as a potential and substantial barrier to gene flow. Our results highlight the need for urgent site-specific management action to halt the decline of this and potentially other rare solitary bees. © 2010 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Ancient DNA reveals genetic stability despite demographic decline: 3,000 years of population history in the endemic Hawaiian petrel.

PubMed

Welch, Andreanna J; Wiley, Anne E; James, Helen F; Ostrom, Peggy H; Stafford, Thomas W; Fleischer, Robert C

2012-12-01

In the Hawaiian Islands, human colonization, which began approximately 1,200 to 800 years ago, marks the beginning of a period in which nearly 75% of the endemic avifauna became extinct and the population size and range of many additional species declined. It remains unclear why some species persisted whereas others did not. The endemic Hawaiian petrel (Pterodroma sandwichensis) has escaped extinction, but colonies on two islands have been extirpated and populations on remaining islands have contracted. We obtained mitochondrial DNA sequences from 100 subfossil bones, 28 museum specimens, and 289 modern samples to investigate patterns of gene flow and temporal changes in the genetic diversity of this endangered species over the last 3,000 years, as Polynesians and then Europeans colonized the Hawaiian Islands. Genetic differentiation was found to be high between both modern and ancient petrel populations. However, gene flow was substantial between the extirpated colonies on Oahu and Molokai and modern birds from the island of Lanai. No significant reductions in genetic diversity occurred over this period, despite fears in the mid-1900s that this species may have been extinct. Simulations show that even a decline to a stable effective population size of 100 individuals would result in the loss of only 5% of the expected heterozygosity. Simulations also show that high levels of genetic diversity may be retained due to the long generation time of this species. Such decoupling between population size and genetic diversity in long-lived species can have important conservation implications. It appears that a pattern of dispersal from declining colonies, in addition to long generation time, may have allowed the Hawaiian petrel to escape a severe genetic bottleneck, and the associated extinction vortex, and persist despite a large population decline after human colonization.

Crossing to safety: dispersal, colonization and mate choice in evolutionarily distinct populations of Steller sea lions, Eumetopias jubatus.

PubMed

O'Corry-Crowe, Greg; Gelatt, Tom; Rea, Lorrie; Bonin, Carolina; Rehberg, Michael

2014-11-01

Population growth typically involves range expansion and establishment of new breeding sites, while the opposite occurs during declines. Although density dependence is widely invoked in theoretical studies of emigration and colonization in expanding populations, few empirical studies have documented the mechanisms. Still fewer have documented the direction and mechanisms of individual transfer in declining populations. Here, we screen large numbers of pups sampled on their natal rookeries for variation in mtDNA (n = 1106) and 16 microsatellite loci (n = 588) and show that new Steller sea lion breeding sites did not follow the typical paradigm and were instead colonized by sea lions from both a declining (Endangered) population and an increasing population. Dispersing individuals colonized rookeries in the distributional hiatus between two evolutionarily distinct (Φ¯(st) = 0.222, R¯(st) = 0.053, K = 2) metapopulations recently described as separate subspecies. Hardy-Weinberg, mixed-stock and relatedness analysis revealed levels of interbreeding on the new rookeries that exclude (i) assortative mating among eastern and western forms, and (ii) inbreeding avoidance as primary motivations for dispersal. Positive and negative density dependence is implicated in both cases of individual transfer. Migration distance limits, and conspecific attraction and performance likely influenced the sequence of rookery colonizations. This study demonstrates that resource limitation may trigger an exodus of breeding animals from declining populations, with substantial impacts on distribution and patterns of genetic variation. It also revealed that this event is rare because colonists dispersed across an evolutionary boundary, suggesting that the causative factors behind recent declines are unusual or of larger magnitude than normally occur. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Heterogeneity in spending change at retirement

PubMed Central

Hurd, Michael D.; Rohwedder, Susann

2014-01-01

The simple one-good model of life-cycle consumption requires that consumption be continuous over retirement; yet prior research based on partial measures of consumption or on synthetic panels indicates that spending drops at retirement, a result that has been called the retirement-consumption puzzle. Using panel data on total spending, nondurable spending and food spending, we find that spending declines at small rates at retirement, rates that could be explained by mechanisms such as the cessation of work-related expenses, unexpected retirement due to a health shock or by the substitution of time for spending. We find substantial heterogeneity in spending change at retirement: in the upper half of the wealth distribution spending increased. In the low-wealth population where spending did decline at higher rates, the main explanation for the decline appears to be early retirement due to poor health, possibly augmented by a short planning horizon by a minority of the population. PMID:24524026

The utility of harvest recoveries of marked individuals to assess polar bear (Ursus maritimus) survival

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peacock, Elizabeth; Laake, Jeff; Laidre, Kristin L.; Born, Erik W.; Atkinson, Stephen N.

2012-01-01

Management of polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations requires the periodic assessment of life history metrics such as survival rate. This information is frequently obtained during short-term capture and marking efforts (e.g., over the course of three years) that result in hundreds of marked bears remaining in the population after active marking is finished. Using 10 additional years of harvest recovery subsequent to a period of active marking, we provide updated estimates of annual survival for polar bears in the Baffin Bay population of Greenland and Canada. Our analysis suggests a decline in survival of polar bears since the period of active marking that ended in 1997; some of the decline in survival can likely be attributed to a decline in springtime ice concentration over the continental shelf of Baffin Island. The variance around the survival estimates is comparatively high because of the declining number of marks available; therefore, results must be interpreted with caution. The variance of the estimates of survival increased most substantially in the sixth year post-marking. When survival estimates calculated with recovery-only and recapture-recovery data sets from the period of active marking were compared, survival rates were indistinguishable. However, for the period when fewer marks were available, survival estimates were lower using the recovery-only data set, which indicates that part of the decline we detected for 2003 – 09 may be due to using only harvest recovery data. Nevertheless, the decline in the estimates of survival is consistent with population projections derived from harvest numbers and earlier vital rates, as well as with an observed decline in the extent of sea ice habitat.

Dropping dead: causes and consequences of vulture population declines worldwide.

PubMed

Ogada, Darcy L; Keesing, Felicia; Virani, Munir Z

2012-02-01

Vultures are nature's most successful scavengers, and they provide an array of ecological, economic, and cultural services. As the only known obligate scavengers, vultures are uniquely adapted to a scavenging lifestyle. Vultures' unique adaptations include soaring flight, keen eyesight, and extremely low pH levels in their stomachs. Presently, 14 of 23 (61%) vulture species worldwide are threatened with extinction, and the most rapid declines have occurred in the vulture-rich regions of Asia and Africa. The reasons for the population declines are varied, but poisoning or human persecution, or both, feature in the list of nearly every declining species. Deliberate poisoning of carnivores is likely the most widespread cause of vulture poisoning. In Asia, Gyps vultures have declined by >95% due to poisoning by the veterinary drug diclofenac, which was banned by regional governments in 2006. Human persecution of vultures has occurred for centuries, and shooting and deliberate poisoning are the most widely practiced activities. Ecological consequences of vulture declines include changes in community composition of scavengers at carcasses and an increased potential for disease transmission between mammalian scavengers at carcasses. There have been cultural and economic costs of vulture declines as well, particularly in Asia. In the wake of catastrophic vulture declines in Asia, regional governments, the international scientific and donor communities, and the media have given the crisis substantial attention. Even though the Asian vulture crisis focused attention on the plight of vultures worldwide, the situation for African vultures has received relatively little attention especially given the similar levels of population decline. While the Asian crisis has been largely linked to poisoning by diclofenac, vulture population declines in Africa have numerous causes, which have made conserving existing populations more difficult. And in Africa there has been little government support to conserve vultures despite mounting evidence of the major threats. In other regions with successful vulture conservation programs, a common theme is a huge investment of financial resources and highly skilled personnel, as well as political will and community support. © 2012 New York Academy of Sciences.

Tuning stochastic matrix models with hydrologic data to predict the population dynamics of a riverine fish

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sakaris, P.C.; Irwin, E.R.

2010-01-01

We developed stochastic matrix models to evaluate the effects of hydrologic alteration and variable mortality on the population dynamics of a lotie fish in a regulated river system. Models were applied to a representative lotic fish species, the flathead catfish (Pylodictis olivaris), for which two populations were examined: a native population from a regulated reach of the Coosa River (Alabama, USA) and an introduced population from an unregulated section of the Ocmulgee River (Georgia, USA). Size-classified matrix models were constructed for both populations, and residuals from catch-curve regressions were used as indices of year class strength (i.e., recruitment). A multiple regression model indicated that recruitment of flathead catfish in the Coosa River was positively related to the frequency of spring pulses between 283 and 566 m3/s. For the Ocmulgee River population, multiple regression models indicated that year class strength was negatively related to mean March discharge and positively related to June low flow. When the Coosa population was modeled to experience five consecutive years of favorable hydrologic conditions during a 50-year projection period, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.2% annual rate. When modeled to experience five years of unfavorable hydrologic conditions, the Coosa population initially exhibited a decrease in size but later stabilized and increased at a 0.4% annual rate following the decline. When the Ocmulgee River population was modeled to experience five years of favorable conditions, it exhibited a substantial spike in size and increased at an overall 0.4% annual rate. After the Ocmulgee population experienced five years of unfavorable conditions, a sharp decline in population size was predicted. However, the population quickly recovered, with population size increasing at a 0.3% annual rate following the decline. In general, stochastic population growth in the Ocmulgee River was more erratic and variable than population growth in the Coosa River. We encourage ecologists to develop similar models for other lotic species, particularly in regulated river systems. Successful management of fish populations in regulated systems requires that we are able to predict how hydrology affects recruitment and will ultimately influence the population dynamics of fishes. ?? 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

Dynamics of a black-capped chickadee population, 1958-1983

USGS Publications Warehouse

Loery, G.; Nichols, J.D.

1985-01-01

The dynamics of a wintering population of Black-capped Chickadees (Parus atricapillus) were studied from 1958-1983 using capture-recapture methods. The Jolly-Seber model was used to obtain annual estimates of population size, survival rate, and recruitment. The average estimated population size over this period was ?160 birds. The average estimated number of new birds entering the population each year and alive at the time of sampling was ?57. The arithmetic mean annual survival rate estimate was ?0.59. We tested hypothesis about possible relationships between these population parameters and (1) the natural introduction of Tufted Titmice (Parus bicolor) to the area, (2) the clear-cutting of portions of nearby red pine (Pinus resinosa) plantations, and (3) natural variations in winter temperatures. The chickadee population exhibited a substantial short-term decline following titmouse establishment, produced by decreases in both survival rate and number of new recruits. Survival rate decline somewhat after the initiation of the pine clear-cutting, but population size was very similar before and after clear-cutting. Weighted least squares analyses provided no evidence of a relationship between survival rate and either of two winter temperature variables.

Population viability analysis of Lower Missouri River shovelnose sturgeon with initial application to the pallid sturgeon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bajer, P.G.; Wildhaber, M.L.

2007-01-01

Demographic models for the shovelnose (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus) and pallid (S. albus) sturgeons in the Lower Missouri River were developed to conduct sensitivity analyses for both populations. Potential effects of increased fishing mortality on the shovelnose sturgeon were also evaluated. Populations of shovelnose and pallid sturgeon were most sensitive to age-0 mortality rates as well as mortality rates of juveniles and young adults. Overall, fecundity was a less sensitive parameter. However, increased fecundity effectively balanced higher mortality among sensitive age classes in both populations. Management that increases population-level fecundity and improves survival of age-0, juveniles, and young adults should most effectively benefit both populations. Evaluation of reproductive values indicated that populations of pallid sturgeon dominated by ages ≥35 could rapidly lose their potential for growth, particularly if recruitment remains low. Under the initial parameter values portraying current conditions the population of shovelnose sturgeon was predicted to decline by 1.65% annually, causing the commercial yield to also decline. Modeling indicated that the commercial yield could increase substantially if exploitation of females in ages ≤12 was highly restricted.

Trends in Birth Rates: New York City 1970-1995.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Finkel, Madelon L.; Elkin, Elena

2001-01-01

Examined teen birth rates in New York City health districts over 25 years, noting ethnic variations. Data from Department of Health vital statistics indicated that the decline in the birth rate among New York City teens was most significant in health districts populated predominantly by blacks. There were substantial decreases among older teens…

Demography of Dall's sheep in northwestern Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kleckner, Christopher; Udevitz, Mark S.; Adams, Layne G.; Shults, Brad S.

2003-01-01

Dall’s sheep in northwestern Alaska declined in the early 1990s following the severe 1989-90 and 1990-91 winters. In the Baird Mountains of Noatak National Preserve, estimates of adult sheep declined by 50% from 800 in 1989 to under 400 in 1991. Population counts remained low throughout 1991 to 1996, reaching a minimum of 244 adult sheep in 1996. Few lambs were observed during annual midsummer aerial surveys in 1991 to 1994. We suspect that these declines resulted from a combination of poorer nutritional condition and increased vulnerability of sheep to predation resulting from severe winter conditions.As a result of these declines, both subsistence and sport hunting seasons were closed by emergency order in 1991, resulting in substantial management controversy. The affected publics, although willing to accept the closures, questioned the validity of the sheep survey data and strongly emphasized their interest in restoring harvests as soon as populations increased sufficiently. In 1995 the Northwest Arctic Regional Advisory Council, the local advisory committee for the Federal Subsistence Board, passed a motion supporting efforts to initiate research on sheep populations in the region to better understand the factors limiting sheep populations and to evaluate sheep survey methodologies.Currently estimates of Dall’s sheep population size and composition in the western Brooks Range are based on intensive fixed-wing aerial surveys conducted annually since 1986 in areas including the Baird Mountains. The annual variation in recent Baird Mountains aerial counts cannot be explained with reasonable assumptions about reproduction and survival, suggesting that there is some variability in the proportion of the population observed each year or that a substantial number of sheep move during the survey. Prior to our research, no attempt had been made to estimate visibility bias or precision for these surveys.Our understanding of Dall’s sheep population biology comes largely from studies in central or southern Alaska and the southern Yukon. However, sheep in northwestern Alaska are at the northwestern extreme of their range and live in a less hospitable environment characterized by short growing seasons and long, severe winters. We expect patterns of productivity and survival for sheep in Noatak National Preserve to differ from the more southerly populations. To adequately manage sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska, we need a better understanding of sheep demography. Along with unbiased population estimates, understanding the dynamics of sheep populations in the region will allow population models to be developed that can provide focus for a useful dialog on management goals and strategies and facilitate a cooperative strategy for managing sheep harvests in northwestern Alaska.

Race, APOL1 Risk, and eGFR Decline in the General Population

PubMed Central

Rebholz, Casey M.; Chen, Yuan; Rawlings, Andreea M.; Estrella, Michelle M.; Selvin, Elizabeth; Appel, Lawrence J.; Tin, Adrienne; Coresh, Josef

2016-01-01

The APOL1 high-risk genotype, present in approximately 13% of blacks in the United States, is a risk factor for kidney function decline in populations with CKD. It is unknown whether genetic screening is indicated in the general population. We evaluated the prognosis of APOL1 high-risk status in participants in the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, including associations with eGFR decline, variability in eGFR decline, and related adverse health events (AKI, ESRD, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, pre-ESRD and total hospitalization rate, and mortality). Among 15,140 ARIC participants followed from 1987–1989 (baseline) to 2011–2013, 75.3% were white, 21.5% were black/APOL1 low-risk, and 3.2% were black/APOL1 high-risk. In a demographic-adjusted analysis, blacks had a higher risk for all assessed adverse health events; however, in analyses adjusted for comorbid conditions and socioeconomic status, blacks had a higher risk for hypertension, diabetes, and ESRD only. Among blacks, the APOL1 high-risk genotype associated only with higher risk of ESRD in a fully adjusted analysis. Black race and APOL1 high-risk status were associated with faster eGFR decline (P<0.001 for each). However, we detected substantial overlap among the groups: median (10th–90th percentile) unadjusted eGFR decline was 1.5 (1.0–2.2) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year for whites, 2.1 (1.4–3.1) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year for blacks with APOL1 low-risk status, and 2.3 (1.5–3.5) ml/min per 1.73 m2 per year for blacks with APOL1 high-risk status. The high variability in eGFR decline among blacks with and without the APOL1 high-risk genotype suggests that population-based screening is not yet justified. PMID:26966015

Race, APOL1 Risk, and eGFR Decline in the General Population.

PubMed

Grams, Morgan E; Rebholz, Casey M; Chen, Yuan; Rawlings, Andreea M; Estrella, Michelle M; Selvin, Elizabeth; Appel, Lawrence J; Tin, Adrienne; Coresh, Josef

2016-09-01

The APOL1 high-risk genotype, present in approximately 13% of blacks in the United States, is a risk factor for kidney function decline in populations with CKD. It is unknown whether genetic screening is indicated in the general population. We evaluated the prognosis of APOL1 high-risk status in participants in the population-based Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study, including associations with eGFR decline, variability in eGFR decline, and related adverse health events (AKI, ESRD, hypertension, diabetes, cardiovascular disease, pre-ESRD and total hospitalization rate, and mortality). Among 15,140 ARIC participants followed from 1987-1989 (baseline) to 2011-2013, 75.3% were white, 21.5% were black/APOL1 low-risk, and 3.2% were black/APOL1 high-risk. In a demographic-adjusted analysis, blacks had a higher risk for all assessed adverse health events; however, in analyses adjusted for comorbid conditions and socioeconomic status, blacks had a higher risk for hypertension, diabetes, and ESRD only. Among blacks, the APOL1 high-risk genotype associated only with higher risk of ESRD in a fully adjusted analysis. Black race and APOL1 high-risk status were associated with faster eGFR decline (P<0.001 for each). However, we detected substantial overlap among the groups: median (10th-90th percentile) unadjusted eGFR decline was 1.5 (1.0-2.2) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year for whites, 2.1 (1.4-3.1) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year for blacks with APOL1 low-risk status, and 2.3 (1.5-3.5) ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year for blacks with APOL1 high-risk status. The high variability in eGFR decline among blacks with and without the APOL1 high-risk genotype suggests that population-based screening is not yet justified. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Comparison of wetlands in different hydrogeological settings under conditions of extreme climate variability

USGS Publications Warehouse

Winter, T.; Rosenberry, D.; Kelly, E.; LaBaugh, J.

2005-01-01

Wetlands in the Cottonwood Lake area in North Dakota, USA, are underlain by poorly permeable till and have little groundwater input. Lakes and wetlands in the Shingobee River headwaters in Minnesota are underlain by permeable sand and have substantial groundwater input. Hydrological, chemical, and biological characteristics of these ecosystems have been monitored since 1977. Both sites experienced the second worst drought of the 20th century followed by the wettest period in more than a century. At Cottonwood Lake, plants that invaded the dry wetlands during the drought were flooded during the wet period and became a food source for animals. This resulted in successive substantial population increases and declines of plankton, invertebrates, amphibians and waterfowl. Substantial groundwater input buffered the lakes and wetlands in the Shingobee area against the changing water conditions. Only subtle changes in water chemistry and plankton populations were observed during the transition from drought to deluge.

Protecting marine mammals, turtles, and birds by rebuilding global fisheries.

PubMed

Burgess, Matthew G; McDermott, Grant R; Owashi, Brandon; Peavey Reeves, Lindsey E; Clavelle, Tyler; Ovando, Daniel; Wallace, Bryan P; Lewison, Rebecca L; Gaines, Steven D; Costello, Christopher

2018-03-16

Reductions in global fishing pressure are needed to end overfishing of target species and maximize the value of fisheries. We ask whether such reductions would also be sufficient to protect non-target species threatened as bycatch. We compare changes in fishing pressure needed to maximize profits from 4713 target fish stocks-accounting for >75% of global catch-to changes in fishing pressure needed to reverse ongoing declines of 20 marine mammal, sea turtle, and seabird populations threatened as bycatch. We project that maximizing fishery profits would halt or reverse declines of approximately half of these threatened populations. Recovering the other populations would require substantially greater effort reductions or targeting improvements. Improving commercial fishery management could thus yield important collateral benefits for threatened bycatch species globally. Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

Comparative Longterm Mortality Trends in Cancer vs. Ischemic Heart Disease in Puerto Rico.

PubMed

Torres, David; Pericchi, Luis R; Mattei, Hernando; Zevallos, Juan C

2017-06-01

Although contemporary mortality data are important for health assessment and planning purposes, their availability lag several years. Statistical projection techniques can be employed to obtain current estimates. This study aimed to assess annual trends of mortality in Puerto Rico due to cancer and Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD), and to predict shorterm and longterm cancer and IHD mortality figures. Age-adjusted mortality per 100,000 population projections with a 50% interval probability were calculated utilizing a Bayesian statistical approach of Age-Period-Cohort dynamic model. Multiple cause-of-death annual files for years 1994-2010 for Puerto Rico were used to calculate shortterm (2011-2012) predictions. Longterm (2013-2022) predictions were based on quinquennial data. We also calculated gender differences in rates (men-women) for each study period. Mortality rates for women were similar for cancer and IHD in the 1994-1998 period, but changed substantially in the projected 2018-2022 period. Cancer mortality rates declined gradually overtime, and the gender difference remained constant throughout the historical and projected trends. A consistent declining trend for IHD historical annual mortality rate was observed for both genders, with a substantial changepoint around 2004-2005 for men. The initial gender difference of 33% (80/100,00 vs. 60/100,000) in mortality rates observed between cancer and IHD in the 1994-1998 period increased to 300% (60/100,000 vs. 20/100,000) for the 2018-2022 period. The APC projection model accurately projects shortterm and longterm mortality trends for cancer and IHD in this population: The steady historical and projected cancer mortality rates contrasts with the substantial decline in IHD mortality rates, especially in men.

California energy flow in 1993

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Borg, I.Y.; Briggs, C.K.

1995-04-01

Energy consumption in the state of California decreased about 3% in 1993 reflecting continuation of the recession that was manifest in a moribund construction industry and a high state unemployment that ran counter to national recovery trends. Residential/commercial use decreased slightly reflecting a mild winter in the populous southern portion of the state, a decrease that was offset to some extent by an increase in the state population. Industrial consumption of purchased energy declined substantially as did production of self-generated electricity for in-house use. Consumption in the transportation sector decreased slightly. The amount of power transmitted by the utilities wasmore » at 1992 levels; however a smaller proportion was produced by the utilities themselves. Generation of electricity by nonutilities, primarily cogenerators and small power producers, was the largest of any state in the US. The growth in the number of private power producers combined with increased amounts of electricity sold to the public utilities set the stage for the sweeping proposals before the California Public Utility Commission to permit direct sales from the nonutilities to retail customers. California production of both oil and natural gas declined; however, to meet demand only the imports of natural gas increased. A break in the decade-long drought during the 1992--1993 season resulted in a substantial increase in the amount of hydroelectricity generated during the year. Geothermal energy`s contribution increased substantially because of the development of new resources by small power producers. Decline in steam production continued at The Geysers, the state`s largest field, principally owned and managed by a public utility. Increases in windpower constituted 1--1/2% of the total electric supply--up slightly from 1992. Several solar photo voltaic demonstration plants were in operation, but their contribution remained small.« less

California energy flow in 1993

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borg, I. Y.; Briggs, C. K.

1995-04-01

Energy consumption in the state of California decreased about 3% in 1993 reflecting continuation of the recession that was manifest in a moribund construction industry and a high state unemployment that ran counter to national recovery trends. Residential/commercial use decreased slightly reflecting a mild winter in the populous southern portion of the state, a decrease that was offset to some extent by an increase in the state population. Industrial consumption of purchased energy declined substantially as did production of self-generated electricity for in-house use. Consumption in the transportation sector decreased slightly. The amount of power transmitted by the utilities was at 1992 levels; however a smaller proportion was produced by the utilities themselves. Generation of electricity by nonutilities, primarily cogenerators and small power producers, was the largest of any state in the US. The growth in the number of private power producers combined with increased amounts of electricity sold to the public utilities set the stage for the sweeping proposals before the California Public Utility Commission to permit direct sales from the nonutilities to retail customers. California production of both oil and natural gas declined; however, to meet demand only the imports of natural gas increased. A break in the decade-long drought during the 1992-1993 season resulted in a substantial increase in the amount of hydroelectricity generated during the year. Geothermal energy's contribution increased substantially because of the development of new resources by small power producers. Decline in steam production continued at The Geysers, the state's largest field, principally owned and managed by a public utility. Increases in windpower constituted 1-1/2% of the total electric supply, up slightly from 1992. Several solar photovoltaic demonstration plants were in operation, but their contribution remained small.

Demographics and run timing of adult Lost River (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose (Chasmistes brevirostris) suckers in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon, 2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hewitt, David A.; Janney, Eric C.; Hayes, Brian S.; Harris, Alta C.

2012-01-01

Despite relatively high survival in most years, both species have experienced substantial declines in the abundance of spawning fish because losses from mortality have not been balanced by recruitment of new individuals. Although capture-recapture data indicate substantial recruitment of new individuals into the adult spawning populations for SNS and river spawning LRS in some years, size data do not corroborate these estimates. In fact, fork length data indicate that all populations are largely comprised of fish that were present in the late 1990s and early 2000s. As a result, the status of the endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake remains worrisome, and the situation is most dire for shortnose suckers. Future investigations should explore the connections between sucker recruitment and survival and various environmental factors, such as water quality and disease. Our monitoring program provides a robust platform for estimating vital population parameters, evaluating the status of the populations, and assessing the effectiveness of conservation and recovery efforts.

Has Thailand's fertility decline stalled?

PubMed

Knodel, J; Chayovan, N; Frisen, C

1988-09-01

Thailand is 1 of the third world countries in which a very substantial fertility decline has occurred during the last 2 decades. However, there has been some recent concern, based on fertility rates derived from 3 national contraceptive prevalence surveys conducted in 1978/1979, 1981, and 1984, that the fertility decline may have lost momentum at a level well above replacement fertility. New evidence now available from a more recent national survey which permits calculation of retrospective fertility trends, in combination with those from registration data, clearly contradicts the suggestion of a fall in the fertility decline. Moreover, because expected family size remains low among women currently starting their reproductive careers and evidence shows that the preferred number of children has fallen more or less steadily, low fertility may be expected to be a feature of the Thai population for some time to come.

A cat's tale: the impact of genetic restoration on Florida panther population dynamics and persistence.

PubMed

Hostetler, Jeffrey A; Onorato, David P; Jansen, Deborah; Oli, Madan K

2013-05-01

1. Genetic restoration has been suggested as a management tool for mitigating detrimental effects of inbreeding depression in small, inbred populations, but the demographic mechanisms underlying population-level responses to genetic restoration remain poorly understood. 2. We studied the dynamics and persistence of the endangered Florida panther Puma concolor coryi population and evaluated the potential influence of genetic restoration on population growth and persistence parameters. As part of the genetic restoration programme, eight female Texas pumas P. c. stanleyana were released into Florida panther habitat in southern Florida in 1995. 3. The overall asymptotic population growth rate (λ) was 1.04 (5th and 95th percentiles: 0.95-1.14), suggesting an increase in the panther population of approximately 4% per year. Considering the effects of environmental and demographic stochasticities and density-dependence, the probability that the population will fall below 10 panthers within 100 years was 0.072 (0-0.606). 4. Our results suggest that the population would have declined at 5% per year (λ = 0.95; 0.83-1.08) in the absence of genetic restoration. Retrospective life table response experiment analysis revealed that the positive effect of genetic restoration on survival of kittens was primarily responsible for the substantial growth of the panther population that would otherwise have been declining. 5. For comparative purposes, we also estimated probability of quasi-extinction under two scenarios - implementation of genetic restoration and no genetic restoration initiative - using the estimated abundance of panthers in 1995, the year genetic restoration was initiated. Assuming no density-dependence, the probability that the panther population would fall below 10 panthers by 2010 was 0.098 (0.002-0.332) for the restoration scenario and 0.445 (0.032-0.944) for the no restoration scenario, providing further evidence that the panther population would have faced a substantially higher risk of extinction if the genetic restoration initiative had not been implemented. 6. Our results, along with those reporting increases in population size and improvements in biomedical correlates of inbreeding depression, provide strong evidence that genetic restoration substantially contributed to the observed increases in the Florida panther population. © 2012 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2012 British Ecological Society.

A climate trend analysis of Ethiopia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Rowland, Jim; Eilerts, Gary; Kebebe, Emebet; Biru, Nigist; White, Libby; Galu, Gideon

2012-01-01

This brief report, drawing from a multi-year effort by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET), examines recent trends in March-June, June-September, and March-September rainfall and temperature, identifying significant reductions in rainfall and increases in temperature over time in many areas of Ethiopia. Conclusions: * Spring and summer rains in parts of Ethiopia have declined by 15-20 percent since the mid-1970s. * Substantial warming across the entire country has exacerbated the dryness.* An important pattern of observed existing rainfall declines coincides with heavily populated areas of the Rift Valley in south-central Ethiopia, and is likely already adversely affecting crop yields and pasture conditions. * Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a drier, warmer climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Ethiopia during the next 20 years.* Many areas of Ethiopia will maintain moist climate conditions, and agricultural development in these areas could help offset rainfall declines and reduced production in other areas.

Variation in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) land use indicates production and population peaks prior to European contact.

PubMed

Stevenson, Christopher M; Puleston, Cedric O; Vitousek, Peter M; Chadwick, Oliver A; Haoa, Sonia; Ladefoged, Thegn N

2015-01-27

Many researchers believe that prehistoric Rapa Nui society collapsed because of centuries of unchecked population growth within a fragile environment. Recently, the notion of societal collapse has been questioned with the suggestion that extreme societal and demographic change occurred only after European contact in AD 1722. Establishing the veracity of demographic dynamics has been hindered by the lack of empirical evidence and the inability to establish a precise chronological framework. We use chronometric dates from hydrated obsidian artifacts recovered from habitation sites in regional study areas to evaluate regional land-use within Rapa Nui. The analysis suggests region-specific dynamics including precontact land use decline in some near-coastal and upland areas and postcontact increases and subsequent declines in other coastal locations. These temporal land-use patterns correlate with rainfall variation and soil quality, with poorer environmental locations declining earlier. This analysis confirms that the intensity of land use decreased substantially in some areas of the island before European contact.

Variation in Rapa Nui (Easter Island) land use indicates production and population peaks prior to European contact

PubMed Central

Stevenson, Christopher M.; Puleston, Cedric O.; Vitousek, Peter M.; Chadwick, Oliver A.; Haoa, Sonia; Ladefoged, Thegn N.

2015-01-01

Many researchers believe that prehistoric Rapa Nui society collapsed because of centuries of unchecked population growth within a fragile environment. Recently, the notion of societal collapse has been questioned with the suggestion that extreme societal and demographic change occurred only after European contact in AD 1722. Establishing the veracity of demographic dynamics has been hindered by the lack of empirical evidence and the inability to establish a precise chronological framework. We use chronometric dates from hydrated obsidian artifacts recovered from habitation sites in regional study areas to evaluate regional land-use within Rapa Nui. The analysis suggests region-specific dynamics including precontact land use decline in some near-coastal and upland areas and postcontact increases and subsequent declines in other coastal locations. These temporal land-use patterns correlate with rainfall variation and soil quality, with poorer environmental locations declining earlier. This analysis confirms that the intensity of land use decreased substantially in some areas of the island before European contact. PMID:25561523

Integrated analysis for population estimation, management impact evaluation, and decision-making for a declining species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

2018-01-01

A challenge for making conservation decisions is predicting how wildlife populations respond to multiple, concurrent threats and potential management strategies, usually under substantial uncertainty. Integrated modeling approaches can improve estimation of demographic rates necessary for making predictions, even for rare or cryptic species with sparse data, but their use in management applications is limited. We developed integrated models for a population of diamondback terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) impacted by road-associated threats to (i) jointly estimate demographic rates from two mark-recapture datasets, while directly estimating road mortality and the impact of management actions deployed during the study; and (ii) project the population using population viability analysis under simulated management strategies to inform decision-making. Without management, population extirpation was nearly certain due to demographic impacts of road mortality, predators, and vegetation. Installation of novel flashing signage increased survival of terrapins that crossed roads by 30%. Signage, along with small roadside barriers installed during the study, increased population persistence probability, but the population was still predicted to decline. Management strategies that included actions targeting multiple threats and demographic rates resulted in the highest persistence probability, and roadside barriers, which increased adult survival, were predicted to increase persistence more than other actions. Our results support earlier findings showing mitigation of multiple threats is likely required to increase the viability of declining populations. Our approach illustrates how integrated models may be adapted to use limited data efficiently, represent system complexity, evaluate impacts of threats and management actions, and provide decision-relevant information for conservation of at-risk populations.

Benchmarking life expectancy and cancer mortality: global comparison with cardiovascular disease 1981-2010

PubMed Central

Bray, Freddie; Beltrán-Sánchez, Hiram; Ginsburg, Ophira; Soneji, Samir; Soerjomataram, Isabelle

2017-01-01

Objective To quantify the impact of cancer (all cancers combined and major sites) compared with cardiovascular disease (CVD) on longevity worldwide during 1981-2010. Design Retrospective demographic analysis using aggregated data. Setting National civil registration systems in member states of the World Health Organization. Participants 52 populations with moderate to high quality data on cause specific mortality. Main outcome measures Disease specific contributions to changes in life expectancy in ages 40-84 (LE40-84) over time in populations grouped by two levels of Human Development Index (HDI) values. Results Declining CVD mortality rates during 1981-2010 contributed to, on average, over half of the gains in LE40-84; the corresponding gains were 2.3 (men) and 1.7 (women) years, and 0.5 (men) and 0.8 (women) years in very high and medium and high HDI populations, respectively. Declines in cancer mortality rates contributed to, on average, 20% of the gains in LE40-84, or 0.8 (men) and 0.5 (women) years in very high HDI populations, and to over 10% or 0.2 years (both sexes) in medium and high HDI populations. Declining lung cancer mortality rates brought about the largest LE40-84 gain in men in very high HDI populations (up to 0.7 years in the Netherlands), whereas in medium and high HDI populations its contribution was smaller yet still positive. Among women, declines in breast cancer mortality rates were largely responsible for the improvement in longevity, particularly among very high HDI populations (up to 0.3 years in the United Kingdom). In contrast, losses in LE40-84 were observed in many medium and high HDI populations as a result of increasing breast cancer mortality rates. Conclusions The control of CVD has led to substantial gains in LE40-84 worldwide. The inequality in improvement in longevity attributed to declining cancer mortality rates reflects inequities in implementation of cancer control, particularly in less resourced populations and in women. Global actions are needed to revitalize efforts for cancer control, with a specific focus on less resourced countries. PMID:28637656

Human-mediated extirpation of the unique Chatham Islands sea lion and implications for the conservation management of remaining New Zealand sea lion populations.

PubMed

Rawlence, Nicolas J; Collins, Catherine J; Anderson, Christian N K; Maxwell, Justin J; Smith, Ian W G; Robertson, Bruce C; Knapp, Michael; Horsburgh, Katherine Ann; Stanton, Jo-Ann L; Scofield, R Paul; Tennyson, Alan J D; Matisoo-Smith, Elizabeth A; Waters, Jonathan M

2016-08-01

While terrestrial megafaunal extinctions have been well characterized worldwide, our understanding of declines in marine megafauna remains limited. Here, we use ancient DNA analyses of prehistoric (<1450-1650 AD) sea lion specimens from New Zealand's isolated Chatham Islands to assess the demographic impacts of human settlement. These data suggest there was a large population of sea lions, unique to the Chatham Islands, at the time of Polynesian settlement. This distinct mitochondrial lineage became rapidly extinct within 200 years due to overhunting, paralleling the extirpation of a similarly large endemic mainland population. Whole mitogenomic analyses confirm substantial intraspecific diversity among prehistoric lineages. Demographic models suggest that even low harvest rates would likely have driven rapid extinction of these lineages. This study indicates that surviving Phocarctos populations are remnants of a once diverse and widespread sea lion assemblage, highlighting dramatic human impacts on endemic marine biodiversity. Our findings also suggest that Phocarctos bycatch in commercial fisheries may contribute to the ongoing population decline. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Adiponectin is not associated with renal function decline in community-dwelling elderly adults.

PubMed

Kobayashi, Hiroki; Otsuka, Hiromasa; Yanai, Mitsuru; Haketa, Akira; Hara, Motohiko; Hishiki, Mikano; Abe, Masanori; Soma, Masayoshi

2018-05-01

Adiponectin secreted by adipocytes plays an important role in the regulation of glucose and fatty acid metabolism. Contrary to findings in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD), no prospective data about the association of serum adiponectin with renal function decline in the general population have yet appeared. Our objective was to analyze the relationship of total and high molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin with renal function decline as measured by cystatin C in community-dwelling elderly adults without moderate or severe CKD.In a prospective observational analysis, a total of 216 healthy elderly volunteers with eGFRcys ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m underwent anthropometric and laboratory tests at baseline and at follow-up visits. A subgroup with serum samples collected 5 years apart was further analyzed.There were no differences in either total or HMW adiponectin level between subjects subsequently undergoing rapid renal function decline and subjects with normal physiologic renal function decline (P = .71, P = .81). On univariate linear regression, neither total nor HMW adiponectin were associated with annual renal function decline (β = -0.23; P = .71, β = -0.057; P = .90). Multivariate analysis did not show a significant contribution of either total or HMW adiponectin to annual renal function decline (β = -0.50; P = .46, β = 0.01; P = .98). In the logistic regression analysis, we did not observe any statistically significant association of serum adiponectin levels with rapid renal function decline or incidence of CKD.Contrary to findings in populations with CKD, neither total nor HMW adiponectin had a substantial association with renal function decline in an elderly population with eGFRcys ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m. Our results and conclusions should not be extrapolated to subjects with other characteristics.

Temporal Trends in the Utilization of Noninvasive Diagnostic Tests for Coronary Artery Disease in Ontario Between 2008 and 2014: A Population-Based Study.

PubMed

Roifman, Idan; Wijeysundera, Harindra C; Austin, Peter C; Maclagan, Laura C; Rezai, Mohammad R; Wright, Graham A; Tu, Jack V

2017-02-01

The proliferation of cardiac diagnostic tests over the past few decades has received substantial attention from policymakers. However, contemporary population-based temporal trends of the utilization of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests for coronary artery disease are not known. Our objective was to examine the temporal trends in the utilization of coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA), myocardial perfusion imaging (MPI), exercise stress testing (GXT), and stress echocardiography between 2008 and 2014. We performed a population-based repeated cross-sectional study of the adult population of Ontario between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2014. Annual utilization rates of noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests were computed. For each cardiac testing modality, a negative binomial regression model was used to assess temporal changes in test utilization. GXT and MPI collectively accounted for 88% of all cardiac noninvasive diagnostic tests throughout our study period. Age- and sex-standardized rates of GXT declined from 26.7/1000 adult population to 21.6/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 3.4%; P < 0.001). MPI rates declined from 21.1/1000 adult population to 19.5/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.3%; P < 0.001). Although utilization rates for both CCTA and stress echocardiography increased over time, the combined rate of all available tests decreased from 50.8/1000 adult population to 49.1/1000 adult population (mean annual reduction of 1.1%; P < 0.001). In conclusion, utilization rates for the most prevalent noninvasive cardiac diagnostic tests-GXT and MPI-declined over our study period. Furthermore, the overall test utilization rate also declined over time. We believe our findings are encouraging from a health policy perspective. Nonetheless, rising utilization rates for CCTA and stress echocardiography will need to be monitored in the future. Copyright © 2016 Canadian Cardiovascular Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ecosystem scale declines in elk recruitment and population growth with wolf colonization: a before-after-control-impact approach.

PubMed

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk--Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves.

Population genetic structure and disease in montane boreal toads: More heterozygous individuals are more likely to be infected with amphibian chytrid

USGS Publications Warehouse

Addis, Brett; Lowe, Winsor; Hossack, Blake R.; Allendorf, Fred

2015-01-01

Amphibians are more threatened than any other vertebrate group, with 41 % of species classified as threatened. The causes of most declines are not well understood, though many declines have been linked to disease. Additionally, amphibians are physiologically constrained to moist habitats and considered poor dispersers; thus, they may suffer genetic consequences of population isolation. To understand threats to the persistence of boreal toads (Bufo boreas) in Glacier National Park, USA, we genotyped 551 individuals at 11 microsatellite loci and used Bayesian clustering methods to describe population genetic structure and identify barriers to gene flow. We found evidence of two primary genetic groups that differed substantially in elevation and two secondary groups within the high elevation group. There was also evidence of further substructure within the southern high elevation group, suggesting mountain ridges are barriers to gene flow at local scales. Overall, genetic variation was high, but allelic richness declined with increasing elevation, reflecting greater isolation or smaller effective population sizes of high altitude populations. We tested for Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the fungal pathogen which causes chytridiomycosis, and we found that 35 of 199 toads were positive for Bd. Unexpectedly, more heterozygous individuals were more likely to be infected. This suggests that dispersal facilitates the spread of disease because heterozygosity may be highest where dispersal and gene flow are greatest.

Connectivity between migrating and landlocked populations of a diadromous fish species investigated using otolith microchemistry.

PubMed

Tulp, Ingrid; Keller, Marieke; Navez, Jacques; Winter, Hendrik V; de Graaf, Martin; Baeyens, Willy

2013-01-01

Smelt Osmerus eperlanus has two different life history strategies in The Netherlands. The migrating population inhabits the Wadden Sea and spawns in freshwater areas. After the closure of the Afsluitdijk in 1932, part of the smelt population became landlocked. The fresh water smelt population has been in severe decline since 1990, and has strongly negatively impacted the numbers of piscivorous water birds relying on smelt as their main prey. The lakes that were formed after the dike closure, IJsselmeer and Markermeer have been assigned as Natura 2000 sites, based on their importance for (among others) piscivorous water birds. Because of the declining fresh water smelt population, the question arose whether this population is still supported by the diadromous population. Opportunities for exchange between fresh water and the sea are however limited to discharge sluices. The relationship between the diadromous and landlocked smelt population was analysed by means of otolith microchemistry. Our interpretation of otolith strontium ((88)Sr) patterns from smelt specimens collected in the fresh water area of Lake IJsselmeer and Markermeer, compared to those collected in the nearby marine environment, is that there is currently no evidence for a substantial contribution from the diadromous population to the spawning stock of the landlocked population.

Long-term and widespread changes in agricultural practices influence ring-necked pheasant abundance in California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Brussee, Brianne E.; Howe, Kristy B.; Fleskes, Joseph P.; Dwight, Ian; Connelly, Daniel P.; Meshriy, Matt G.; Gardner, Scott C.

2017-01-01

Declines in bird populations in agricultural regions of North America and Europe have been attributed to agricultural industrialization, increases in use of agrochemical application, and increased predation related to habitat modification. Based on count data compiled from Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) from 1974 to 2012, Christmas Bird Count (CBC) collected from 1914 to 2013, and hunter data from Annual Game Take Survey (AGTS) for years 1948–2010, ring-necked pheasants (Phasianus colchicus) in California have experienced substantial declines in agricultural environments. Using a modeling approach that integrates all three forms of survey data into a joint response abundance index, we found pheasant abundance was related to the amount of harvested and unharvested crop land, types of crops produced, amount of total pesticide applied, minimum temperature, precipitation, and numbers of avian competitors and predators. Specifically, major changes in agricultural practices over the last three decades were associated with declines in pheasant numbers and likely reflected widespread loss of habitat. For example, increases in cropland were associated with increased pheasant abundance during early years of study but this effect decreased through time, such that no association in recent years was evidenced. A post hoc analysis revealed that crops beneficial to pheasant abundance (e.g., barley) have declined substantially in recent decades and were replaced by less advantageous crops (e.g., nut trees). An additional analysis using a restricted data set (1990–2013) indicated recent negative impacts on pheasant numbers associated with land use practices were also associated with relatively high levels of pesticide application. Our results may provide valuable information for management policies aimed at reducing widespread declines in pheasant populations in California and may be applicable to other avian species within agricultural settings. Furthermore, this general analytical approach is not limited to pheasants and could be applied to other taxa for which multiple survey data sources exist.

Effects of dams on downstream molluscan predator-prey interactions in the Colorado River estuary.

PubMed

Smith, Jansen A; Handley, John C; Dietl, Gregory P

2018-05-30

River systems worldwide have been modified for human use and the downstream ecological consequences are often poorly understood. In the Colorado River estuary, where upstream water diversions have limited freshwater input during the last century, mollusc remains from the last several hundred years suggest widespread ecological change. The once abundant clam Mulinia modesta has undergone population declines of approximately 94% and populations of predators relying on this species as a food source have probably declined, switched to alternative prey species or both. We distinguish between the first two hypotheses using a null model of predation preference to test whether M. modesta was preyed upon selectively by the naticid snail, Neverita reclusiana , along the estuary's past salinity gradient. To evaluate the third hypothesis, we estimate available prey biomass today and in the past, assuming prey were a limiting resource. Data on the frequency of drill holes-identifiable traces of naticid predation on prey shells-showed several species, including M. modesta , were preferred prey. Neverita reclusiana was probably able to switch prey. Available prey biomass also declined, suggesting the N. reclusiana population probably also declined. These results indicate a substantial change to the structure of the benthic food web. Given the global scale of water management, such changes have probably also occurred in many of the world's estuaries. © 2018 The Author(s).

Density dependence, whitebark pine, and vital rates of grizzly bears

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Manen, Frank T.; Haroldson, Mark A.; Bjornlie, Daniel D.; Ebinger, Michael R.; Thompson, Daniel J.; Costello, Cecily M.; White, Gary C.

2016-01-01

Understanding factors influencing changes in population trajectory is important for effective wildlife management, particularly for populations of conservation concern. Annual population growth of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos) population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, USA has slowed from 4.2–7.6% during 1983–2001 to 0.3–2.2% during 2002–2011. Substantial changes in availability of a key food source and bear population density have occurred. Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis), the seeds of which are a valuable but variable fall food for grizzly bears, has experienced substantial mortality primarily due to a mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak that started in the early 2000s. Positive growth rates of grizzly bears have resulted in populations reaching high densities in some areas and have contributed to continued range expansion. We tested research hypotheses to examine if changes in vital rates detected during the past decade were more associated with whitebark pine decline or, alternatively, increasing grizzly bear density. We focused our assessment on known-fate data to estimate survival of cubs-of-the-year (cubs), yearlings, and independent bears (≥2 yrs), and reproductive transition of females from having no offspring to having cubs. We used spatially and temporally explicit indices for grizzly bear density and whitebark pine mortality as individual covariates. Models indicated moderate support for an increase in survival of independent male bears over 1983–2012, whereas independent female survival did not change. Cub survival, yearling survival, and reproductive transition from no offspring to cubs all changed during the 30-year study period, with lower rates evident during the last 10–15 years. Cub survival and reproductive transition were negatively associated with an index of grizzly bear density, indicating greater declines where bear densities were higher. Our analyses did not support a similar relationship for the index of whitebark pine mortality. The results of our study support the interpretation that slowing of population growth during the last decade was associated more with increasing grizzly bear density than the decline in whitebark pine. Grizzly bear density and its potential effect on vital rates and population trajectory warrant consideration for management of the grizzly bear population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem.

Establishing conservation baselines with dynamic distribution models for bat populations facing imminent decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rodhouse, Thomas J.; Ormsbee, Patricia C.; Irvine, Kathryn M.; Vierling, Lee A.; Szewczak, Joseph M.; Vierling, Kerri T.

2015-01-01

Landscape keystone structures associated with roosting habitat emerged as regionally important predictors of bat distributions. The challenges of bat monitoring have constrained previous species distribution modelling efforts to temporally static presence-only approaches. Our approach extends to broader spatial and temporal scales than has been possible in the past for bats, making a substantial increase in capacity for bat conservation.

Neuropsychological assessment in migraine patients: a descriptive review on cognitive implications.

PubMed

Foti, Maria; Lo Buono, Viviana; Corallo, Francesco; Palmeri, Rosanna; Bramanti, Placido; Marino, Silvia

2017-04-01

Migraine is considered a disabling disorder with highly prevalence in population. Recent studies report that migraine patients have a cognitive decline associated to structural brain alterations. We search on PubMed and Web of Science databases and screening references of included studies and review articles for additional citations. From 519 studies identified, only 16 met the inclusion criteria. All studies were conducted on 1479 migraineurs (190 non-migraine headache and 11,978 controls subject) and examined the association between migraine and cognitive impairment. The results are discordant. Indeed, while cognitive deficits during the attack of migraine are now recognized, only few studies confirmed the presence of cognitive impairment in migraine patients. Given the prevalence of migraine in the population (especially among women), and the early age of the population, an association between migraine and cognitive impairment could have substantial public health implications. Future studies should determine if specific migraine characteristics, for example, attack frequency, may impact the association between migraine and cognitive decline.

Water-Level Changes in Aquifers of the Atlantic Coastal Plain, Predevelopment to 2000

USGS Publications Warehouse

dePaul, Vincent T.; Rice, Donald E.; Zapecza, Otto S.

2008-01-01

The Atlantic Coastal Plain aquifer system, which underlies a large part of the east coast of the United States, is an important source of water for more than 20 million people. As the population of the region increases, further demand is being placed on those ground-water resources. To define areas of past and current declines in ground-water levels, as well as to document changes in those levels, historical water-level data from more than 4,000 wells completed in 13 regional aquifers in the Atlantic Coastal Plain were examined. From predevelopment to 1980, substantial water-level declines occurred in many areas of the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Regional variability in water-level change in the confined aquifers of the Atlantic Coastal Plain resulted from regional differences in aquifer properties and patterns of ground-water withdrawals. Within the Northern Atlantic Coastal Plain, declines of more than 100 ft were observed in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina. Regional declines in water levels were most widespread in the deeper aquifers that were most effectively confined?the Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac aquifers. Within these aquifers, water levels had declined up to 200 ft in southern Virginia and to more than 100 ft in New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and North Carolina. Substantial water-level declines were also evident in the regional Lower Chesapeake aquifer in southeastern New Jersey; in the Castle Hayne-Piney Point aquifer in Delaware, Maryland, southern Virginia and east-central North Carolina; in the Peedee-Severn aquifer in east-central New Jersey and southeastern North Carolina; and in the Black Creek-Matawan aquifer in east-central New Jersey and east-central North Carolina. Conversely, declines were least severe in the regional Upper Chesapeake aquifer during this period. In the Southeastern Coastal Plain, declines of more than 100 ft in the Chattahoochee River aquifer occurred in eastern South Carolina and in southwestern Georgia, where water levels had declined approximately 140 and 200 ft from prepumping conditions, respectively. Within the Upper Floridan aquifer, decline was most pronounced in the coastal areas of Georgia and northern Florida where ground-water withdrawals were at their highest. These areas included Savannah, Jesup, and Brunswick, Ga., as well as the St. Marys, Ga. and Fernandina Beach, Fla., area. Regional water levels had declined by 80 ft near Brunswick and Fernandina Beach to as much as 160 ft near Savannah. Since 1980, water levels in many areas have continued to fall; however, in some places the rate at which levels declined has slowed. Conservation measures have served to limit withdrawals in affected areas, moderating or stabilizing water-level decline, and in some cases, resulting in substantial recovery. In other cases, increases in ground-water pumpage have resulted in continued rapid decline in water levels. From 1980 to 2000, water levels across the regional Upper, Middle, and Lower Potomac aquifers continued to decline across large parts of Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, and North Carolina, and water levels had stabilized or recovered throughout much of Long Island and New Jersey. Substantial water-level recovery had also occurred in east-central New Jersey in the Peedee-Severn and Black Creek-Matawan aquifers and in east-central North Carolina in the Castle Hayne-Piney Point aquifer. Substantial declines from about 1980 to about 2000 occurred in the Peedee-Severn aquifer in southern New Jersey, the Beaufort-Aquia aquifer in southern Maryland, and the Black Creek-Matawan and Upper Potomac aquifers in central and southern parts of the coastal plain in North Carolina. From 1980 to about 2000, water levels within the regional Upper Floridan aquifer had generally stabilized in response to shifting withdrawal patterns and reductions in pumpage at many places within the coastal region. Ground-water levels had stabilized and recovered at the ma

Human population in the biodiversity hotspots.

PubMed

Cincotta, R P; Wisnewski, J; Engelman, R

2000-04-27

Biologists have identified 25 areas, called biodiversity hotspots, that are especially rich in endemic species and particularly threatened by human activities. The human population dynamics of these areas, however, are not well quantified. Here we report estimates of key demographic variables for each hotspot, and for three extensive tropical forest areas that are less immediately threatened. We estimate that in 1995 more than 1.1 billion people, nearly 20% of world population, were living within the hotspots, an area covering about 12% of Earth's terrestrial surface. We estimate that the population growth rate in the hotspots (1995-2000) is 1.8% yr(-1), substantially higher than the population growth rate of the world as a whole (1.3% yr(-1)) and above that of the developing countries (1.6% yr(-1)). These results suggest that substantial human-induced environmental changes are likely to continue in the hotspots and that demographic change remains an important factor in global biodiversity conservation. The results also underline the potential conservation significance of the continuing worldwide declines in human fertility and of policies and programs that influence human migration.

Potential effects of incorporating fertility control into typical culling regimes in wild pig populations

PubMed Central

Davis, Amy J.; Cunningham, Fred L.; VerCauteren, Kurt C.; Eckery, Doug C.

2017-01-01

Effective management of widespread invasive species such as wild pigs (Sus scrofa) is limited by resources available to devote to the effort. Better insight of the effectiveness of different management strategies on population dynamics is important for guiding decisions of resource allocation over space and time. Using a dynamic population model, we quantified effects of culling intensities and time between culling events on population dynamics of wild pigs in the USA using empirical culling patterns and data-based demographic parameters. In simulated populations closed to immigration, substantial population declines (50–100%) occurred within 4 years when 20–60% of the population was culled annually, but when immigration from surrounding areas occurred, there was a maximum of 50% reduction, even with the maximum culling intensity of 60%. Incorporating hypothetical levels of fertility control with realistic culling intensities was most effective in reducing populations when they were closed to immigration and when intrinsic population growth rate was too high (> = 1.78) to be controlled by culling alone. However, substantial benefits from fertility control used in conjunction with culling may only occur over a narrow range of net population growth rates (i.e., where net is the result of intrinsic growth rates and culling) that varies depending on intrinsic population growth rate. The management implications are that the decision to use fertility control in conjunction with culling should rely on concurrent consideration of achievable culling intensity, underlying demographic parameters, and costs of culling and fertility control. The addition of fertility control reduced abundance substantially more than culling alone, however the effects of fertility control were weaker than in populations without immigration. Because these populations were not being reduced substantially by culling alone, fertility control could be an especially helpful enhancement to culling for reducing abundance to target levels in areas where immigration can’t be prevented. PMID:28837610

Attributing mortality among drivers of population decline in Acropora palmata in the Florida Keys (USA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Williams, D. E.; Miller, M. W.

2012-06-01

Acropora palmata populations have experienced steep declines over the past 30 years. Although numerous culprits are recognized, their relative contributions to the decline are poorly quantified, making it difficult to prioritize effective conservation measures. In 2004, a demographic monitoring program was implemented in the Florida Keys (USA), aimed at determining the relative importance of various stressors affecting A. palmata. A subset of randomly selected A. palmata colonies within 15 fore-reef plots was tagged and surveyed three to four times per year over 7 years. Colony size, live tissue, prevalence of disease, snail ( Coralliophila abbreviata) predation, physical damage and other conditions were assessed at each survey. The estimated effect of each condition causing recent mortality was ranked, and together, these parameters were used to attribute the population-level tissue loss associated with each condition. In addition, all new colonies in the study plots were counted and assessed annually in order to track trends in total colony count and live tissue abundance. Between 2004 and 2010, the study population has shown more than 50% decline in live area from three main conditions: fragmentation, disease and snail predation. Approximately half of this decline occurred during the catastrophic 2005 hurricane season from which recovery has been minimal. Meanwhile, colony abundance has shown gradual decline throughout the study. Snail predation was the most prevalent condition. However, it ranked third in attributed tissue loss, behind breakage that occurred during the 2005 hurricane season, and disease. Thermal bleaching of A. palmata was not observed during this study. Because mortality continues to outpace recruitment and growth, intervention to ameliorate losses to the more manageable threats including predation and breakage could result in substantial conservation of live tissue, buying time for the abatement of less tractable threats to A. palmata recovery such as climate change and disease.

Average household exposure to newspaper coverage about the harmful effects of hormone therapy and population-based declines in hormone therapy use.

PubMed

Haas, Jennifer S; Miglioretti, Diana L; Geller, Berta; Buist, Diana S M; Nelson, David E; Kerlikowske, Karla; Carney, Patricia A; Dash, Sarah; Breslau, Erica S; Ballard-Barbash, Rachel

2007-01-01

The news media facilitated the rapid dissemination of the findings from the estrogen plus progestin therapy arm of the Women's Health Initiative (EPT-WHI). To examine the relationship between the potential exposure to newspaper coverage and subsequent hormone therapy (HT) use. DESIGN/POPULATION: Population-based cohort of women receiving mammography at 7 sites (327,144 postmenopausal women). The outcome was the monthly prevalence of self-reported HT use. Circulation data for local, regional, and national newspapers was used to create zip-code level measures of the estimated average household exposure to newspaper coverage that reported the harmful effects of HT in July 2002. Women had an average potential household exposure of 1.4 articles. There was substantial variation in the level of average household exposure to newspaper coverage; women from rural sites received less than women from urban sites. Use of HT declined for all average potential exposure groups after the publication of the EPT-WHI. HT prevalence among women who lived in areas where there was an average household exposure of at least 3 articles declined significantly more (45 to 27%) compared to women who lived in areas with <1 article (43 to 31%) during each of the subsequent 5 months (relative risks 0.86-0.92; p < .006 for all). Greater average household exposure to newspaper coverage about the harms associated with HT was associated with a large population-based decline in HT use. Further studies should examine whether media coverage directly influences the health behavior of individual women.

Lessons about parks and poverty from a decade of forest loss and economic growth around Kibale National Park, Uganda.

PubMed

Naughton-Treves, Lisa; Alix-Garcia, Jennifer; Chapman, Colin A

2011-08-23

We use field data linked to satellite image analysis to examine the relationship between biodiversity loss, deforestation, and poverty around Kibale National Park (KNP) in western Uganda, 1996-2006. Over this decade, KNP generally maintained forest cover, tree species, and primate populations, whereas neighboring communal forest patches were reduced by half and showed substantial declines in tree species and primate populations. However, a bad decade for forest outside the park proved a prosperous one for most local residents. Panel data for 252 households show substantial improvement in welfare indicators (e.g., safer water, more durable roof material), with the greatest increases found among those with highest initial assets. A combination of regression analysis and matching estimators shows that although the poor tend to be located on the park perimeter, proximity to the park has no measureable effect on growth of productive assets. The risk for land loss among the poor was inversely correlated with proximity to the park, initial farm size, and decline in adjacent communal forests. We conclude the current disproportionate presence of poor households at the edge of the park does not signal that the park is a poverty trap. Rather, Kibale appears to provide protection against desperation sales and farm loss among those most vulnerable.

Lessons about parks and poverty from a decade of forest loss and economic growth around Kibale National Park, Uganda

PubMed Central

Naughton-Treves, Lisa; Alix-Garcia, Jennifer; Chapman, Colin A.

2011-01-01

We use field data linked to satellite image analysis to examine the relationship between biodiversity loss, deforestation, and poverty around Kibale National Park (KNP) in western Uganda, 1996–2006. Over this decade, KNP generally maintained forest cover, tree species, and primate populations, whereas neighboring communal forest patches were reduced by half and showed substantial declines in tree species and primate populations. However, a bad decade for forest outside the park proved a prosperous one for most local residents. Panel data for 252 households show substantial improvement in welfare indicators (e.g., safer water, more durable roof material), with the greatest increases found among those with highest initial assets. A combination of regression analysis and matching estimators shows that although the poor tend to be located on the park perimeter, proximity to the park has no measureable effect on growth of productive assets. The risk for land loss among the poor was inversely correlated with proximity to the park, initial farm size, and decline in adjacent communal forests. We conclude the current disproportionate presence of poor households at the edge of the park does not signal that the park is a poverty trap. Rather, Kibale appears to provide protection against desperation sales and farm loss among those most vulnerable. PMID:21873178

Joint Effects of Age, Period, and Cohort on Conduct Problems Among American Adolescents From 1991 Through 2015.

PubMed

Keyes, Katherine M; Gary, Dahsan S; Beardslee, Jordan; Prins, Seth J; O'Malley, Patrick M; Rutherford, Caroline; Schulenberg, John

2018-03-01

Although arrest rates among juveniles have substantially decreased since the 1990s, US national trends in conduct problems are unknown. Population variation in conduct problems would imply changes in the social environment, which would include emergent or receding risk factors. In the present study, we separated age, period, and cohort effects on conduct problems using nationally representative surveys of 375,879 US students conducted annually (1991-2015). The summed score of 7 items measuring the frequency of conduct problems was the outcome. Conduct problems have decreased during the past 25 years among boys; the total amount of the decrease was approximately 0.4 standard deviations (P < 0.01), and by item prevalence, the total amount of the decrease was 8%-11%. Declines are best explained by period effects beginning approximately in 2008, and a declining cohort effect beginning among those born after 1992, which suggests not only declines in population levels, but more rapid declines among younger cohorts of boys. Trends were also consistent with age-period-cohort effects on evenings spent out, which suggest a possible mechanism. Conduct problems among girls were lower than boys and did not demonstrate trends across time. These changes may reflect the changing nature of adolescence toward less unsupervised interaction.

Strong contribution of immigration to local population regulation: evidence from a migratory passerine.

PubMed

Schaub, Michael; Jakober, Hans; Stauber, Wolfgang

2013-08-01

A mechanistic understanding of the dynamics of populations requires knowledge about the variation of the underlying demographic rates and about the reasons for their variability. In geographically open populations, immigration is often necessary to prevent declines, but little is known about whether immigration can contribute to its regulation. We studied the dynamics of a Red-backed Shrike population (Lanius collurio) over 36 years in Germany with a Bayesian integrated population model. We estimated mean and temporal variability of population sizes, productivity, apparent survival, and immigration. We assessed how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population growth to understand the demographic reasons of population change and how strongly the demographic rates were correlated with population size to identify possible density-dependent mechanisms. The shrike population varied between 35 and 74 breeding pairs but did not show a significant trend in population size over time (growth rate 1.002 +/- 0.001 [mean +/- SD]). Apparent survival of females (juveniles 0.06 +/- 0.01; adults 0.37 +/- 0.03) was lower than that of males (juveniles 0.10 +/- 0.01; adults 0.44 +/- 0.02). Immigration rates were substantial and higher in females (0.56 +/- 0.02) than in males (0.43 +/- 0.02), and average productivity was 2.76 +/- 0.14. Without immigration, the Red-backed Shrike population would have declined strongly. Immigration was the strongest driver for the number of females while local recruitment was the most important driver for the number of males. Immigration of both sexes and productivity, but not local recruitment and survival, were subject to density dependence. Density-dependent productivity was not effectively regulating the local population but may have contributed to regulate shrike populations at larger spatial scales. These findings suggest that immigration is not only an important component to prevent a geographically open population from decline, but that it can also contribute to its regulation.

Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

PubMed Central

Ogutu, Joseph O.; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Said, Mohamed Y.; Ojwang, Gordon O.; Njino, Lucy W.; Kifugo, Shem C.; Wargute, Patrick W.

2016-01-01

There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya’s land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72–88%) and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson’s gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy’s zebra and waterbuck in Kenya’s rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2%) but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%), camels (13.1%) and donkeys (6.7%) evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011–2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977–1980. Most of Kenya’s wildlife (ca. 30%) occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total “national” wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate wildlife conservation policy in Kenya. We suggest policy, institutional and management interventions likely to succeed in reducing the declines and restoring rangeland health, most notably through strengthening and investing in community and private wildlife conservancies in the rangelands. PMID:27676077

Extreme Wildlife Declines and Concurrent Increase in Livestock Numbers in Kenya: What Are the Causes?

PubMed

Ogutu, Joseph O; Piepho, Hans-Peter; Said, Mohamed Y; Ojwang, Gordon O; Njino, Lucy W; Kifugo, Shem C; Wargute, Patrick W

There is growing evidence of escalating wildlife losses worldwide. Extreme wildlife losses have recently been documented for large parts of Africa, including western, Central and Eastern Africa. Here, we report extreme declines in wildlife and contemporaneous increase in livestock numbers in Kenya rangelands between 1977 and 2016. Our analysis uses systematic aerial monitoring survey data collected in rangelands that collectively cover 88% of Kenya's land surface. Our results show that wildlife numbers declined on average by 68% between 1977 and 2016. The magnitude of decline varied among species but was most extreme (72-88%) and now severely threatens the population viability and persistence of warthog, lesser kudu, Thomson's gazelle, eland, oryx, topi, hartebeest, impala, Grevy's zebra and waterbuck in Kenya's rangelands. The declines were widespread and occurred in most of the 21 rangeland counties. Likewise to wildlife, cattle numbers decreased (25.2%) but numbers of sheep and goats (76.3%), camels (13.1%) and donkeys (6.7%) evidently increased in the same period. As a result, livestock biomass was 8.1 times greater than that of wildlife in 2011-2013 compared to 3.5 times in 1977-1980. Most of Kenya's wildlife (ca. 30%) occurred in Narok County alone. The proportion of the total "national" wildlife population found in each county increased between 1977 and 2016 substantially only in Taita Taveta and Laikipia but marginally in Garissa and Wajir counties, largely reflecting greater wildlife losses elsewhere. The declines raise very grave concerns about the future of wildlife, the effectiveness of wildlife conservation policies, strategies and practices in Kenya. Causes of the wildlife declines include exponential human population growth, increasing livestock numbers, declining rainfall and a striking rise in temperatures but the fundamental cause seems to be policy, institutional and market failures. Accordingly, we thoroughly evaluate wildlife conservation policy in Kenya. We suggest policy, institutional and management interventions likely to succeed in reducing the declines and restoring rangeland health, most notably through strengthening and investing in community and private wildlife conservancies in the rangelands.

Reconciling findings on the employment effect of disability insurance.

PubMed

Bound, John; Lindner, Stephan; Waidmann, Timothy

2014-12-01

Over the last 25 years, the Social Security Disability Insurance Program (DI) has grown dramatically. During the same period, employment rates for men with work limitations showed substantial declines in both absolute and relative terms. While the timing of these trends suggests that the expansion of DI was a major contributor to employment decline among this group, raising questions about the targeting of disability benefits, studies using denied applicants suggest a more modest role of the DI expansion. To reconcile these findings, we decompose total employment changes into population and employment changes for three categories: DI beneficiaries, denied applicants, and non-applicants. Our results show that during the early 1990s, the growth in DI can fully explain the employment decline for men only under an extreme assumption about the employment potential of beneficiaries. For the period after the mid-1990s, we find little role for the DI program in explaining the continuing employment decline for men with work limitations.

Reconciling findings on the employment effect of disability insurance

PubMed Central

Bound, John; Lindner, Stephan; Waidmann, Timothy

2016-01-01

Over the last 25 years, the Social Security Disability Insurance Program (DI) has grown dramatically. During the same period, employment rates for men with work limitations showed substantial declines in both absolute and relative terms. While the timing of these trends suggests that the expansion of DI was a major contributor to employment decline among this group, raising questions about the targeting of disability benefits, studies using denied applicants suggest a more modest role of the DI expansion. To reconcile these findings, we decompose total employment changes into population and employment changes for three categories: DI beneficiaries, denied applicants, and non-applicants. Our results show that during the early 1990s, the growth in DI can fully explain the employment decline for men only under an extreme assumption about the employment potential of beneficiaries. For the period after the mid-1990s, we find little role for the DI program in explaining the continuing employment decline for men with work limitations. PMID:27158580

Genetic Divergence of an Avian Endemic on the Californian Channel Islands

PubMed Central

Wilson, Amy G.; Chan, Yvonne; Taylor, Sabrina S.; Arcese, Peter

2015-01-01

The Californian Channel Islands are near–shore islands with high levels of endemism, but extensive habitat loss has contributed to the decline or extinction of several endemic taxa. A key parameter for understanding patterns of endemism and demography in island populations is the magnitude of inter–island dispersal. This paper estimates the extent of migration and genetic differentiation in three extant and two extinct populations of Channel Island song sparrows (Melospiza melodia graminea). Inter–island differentiation was substantial (G''ST: 0.14–0.37), with San Miguel Island having the highest genetic divergence and lowest migration rates. Santa Rosa and Santa Cruz Island populations were less diverged with higher migration rates. Genetic signals of past population declines were detected in all of the extant populations. The Channel Island populations were significantly diverged from mainland populations of M. m. heermanni (G''ST: 0.30–0.64). Ten mtDNA haplotypes were recovered across the extant and extinct Channel Island population samples. Two of the ten haplotypes were shared between the Northern and Southern Channel Islands, with one of these haplotypes being detected on the Californian mainland. Our results suggest that there is little contemporary migration between islands, consistent with early explanations of avian biogeography in the Channel Islands, and that song sparrow populations on the northern Channel Islands are demographically independent. PMID:26308717

CFSC (Community and Family Study Center) study finds birth rates falling everywhere - family planning (family planning) is a factor.

PubMed

1978-08-01

The findings of the Community and Family Study Center study, based on estimated crude birthrates and total fertility rates for 1968 and 1975, indicate that there has been a significant reduction in fertility levels of both developed and developing countries. Despite regional variations, the estimates show an average proportional decline of 8.5% in total fertility rates between 1968 and 1975. Of the 148 nations studied, 113 were in developing regions and 35 in the developed regions. Information on important social and economic development factors, such as life expectancy, literacy, percent of labor force in agriculture, per capita income, and family planning program strength were gathered for each country. Analyses of these data are reported in "The Public Interest" (to be published) "Population Reference Bulletin," October 1978, and a paper presented at the 1978 Population Association of America Meetings in Atlanta, Georgia. The recent change in fertility affected 81% of the world's population, primarily the peoples of Asia, Latin America, and North America. The total fertility rate in the world in 1968 was 4635 and declined to 4068 in 1975. More substantial declines occurred in Asia and Latin America, where the number of fewer births 1000 women would bear under a given fertility schedule declined by 845 births and 617 births, respectively. As more research is conducted to investigate the underlying causes of this decline, it is likely to confirm the important role that family planning programs have had in developing nations. Although major improvements in the socioeconomic well-being of the developing areas continue as an essential goal, the need to maintain the organized provision of family planning services should not be understated.

Ecosystem Scale Declines in Elk Recruitment and Population Growth with Wolf Colonization: A Before-After-Control-Impact Approach

PubMed Central

Christianson, David; Creel, Scott

2014-01-01

The reintroduction of wolves (Canis lupus) to Yellowstone provided the unusual opportunity for a quasi-experimental test of the effects of wolf predation on their primary prey (elk – Cervus elaphus) in a system where top-down, bottom-up, and abiotic forces on prey population dynamics were closely and consistently monitored before and after reintroduction. Here, we examined data from 33 years for 12 elk population segments spread across southwestern Montana and northwestern Wyoming in a large scale before-after-control-impact analysis of the effects of wolves on elk recruitment and population dynamics. Recruitment, as measured by the midwinter juvenile∶female ratio, was a strong determinant of elk dynamics, and declined by 35% in elk herds colonized by wolves as annual population growth shifted from increasing to decreasing. Negative effects of population density and winter severity on recruitment, long recognized as important for elk dynamics, were detected in uncolonized elk herds and in wolf-colonized elk herds prior to wolf colonization, but not after wolf colonization. Growing season precipitation and harvest had no detectable effect on recruitment in either wolf treatment or colonization period, although harvest rates of juveniles∶females declined by 37% in wolf-colonized herds. Even if it is assumed that mortality due to predation is completely additive, liberal estimates of wolf predation rates on juvenile elk could explain no more than 52% of the total decline in juvenile∶female ratios in wolf-colonized herds, after accounting for the effects of other limiting factors. Collectively, these long-term, large-scale patterns align well with prior studies that have reported substantial decrease in elk numbers immediately after wolf recolonization, relatively weak additive effects of direct wolf predation on elk survival, and decreased reproduction and recruitment with exposure to predation risk from wolves. PMID:25028933

Achieving the Goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy: Declining HIV Diagnoses, Improving Clinical Outcomes, and Diminishing Racial/Ethnic Disparities in King County, WA (2004-2013).

PubMed

Golden, Matthew R; Bennett, Amy B; Dombrowski, Julia C; Buskin, Susan E

2016-05-01

The US National HIV/AIDS Strategy defines national objectives related to HIV prevention and care. The extent to which US cities are meeting those objectives is uncertain. We analyzed King County, WA, HIV surveillance data collected between 2004 and 2013. The study population included 9539 persons diagnosed as having and living with HIV infection and 3779 persons with newly diagnosed HIV infection. Between 2004 and 2013, the rate of new HIV diagnosis decreased from 18.4 to 13.2 per 100,000 residents (decline of 28%); AIDS diagnosis rates declined 42% from 12 to 7 per 100,000; and age-adjusted death rates decreased from 27 to 15 per 1000 persons living with HIV/AIDS (decline of 42%; P<0.0001 for all 3 trends). The rate of new HIV diagnosis declined 26% among men who have sex with men (MSM; P=0.0002), with the largest decline occurring in black MSM (44%). Among 8679 individuals with laboratory results reported to National HIV Surveillance System from 2006 through 2013, viral suppression (viral load<200 copies/mL) increased from 45% to 86% (P<0.0001), with all racial/ethnic groups achieving greater than 80% viral suppression in 2013. The rates of new HIV diagnosis, AIDS diagnoses, and mortality in persons living with HIV in King County, WA, have significantly declined over the last decade. These changes have occurred concurrent with a dramatic increase in HIV viral suppression and have affected diverse populations, including MSM and African American MSM. These findings demonstrate substantial local success in achieving the goals of the National HIV/AIDS Strategy.

Microbial community activities during establishment, performance, and decline of bench-scale passive treatment systems for mine drainage.

PubMed

Logan, Miranda V; Reardon, Kenneth F; Figueroa, Linda A; McLain, Jean E T; Ahmann, Dianne M

2005-11-01

Permeable reactive barrier (PRB) technology, in which sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) facilitate precipitation of metal sulfides, is a promising approach for remediation of sulfate- and metal-laden mine drainage. While PRBs are easily established, they often decline for reasons not well understood. SRB depend on or compete with multiple dynamic microbial populations within a PRB; as a result, performance depends on the changing PRB chemical composition and on succession and competition within the microbial community. To investigate these interactions, we constructed and monitored eight bench-scale PRBs to define periods of establishment, performance, and decline. We then conducted short-term batch studies, using substrate-supplemented column materials, on Days 0 (pre-establishment), 27 (establishment), 41 (performance), and 99 (decline) to reveal potential activities of cellulolytic bacteria, fermenters + anaerobic respirers, SRB, and methanogens. PRBs showed active sulfate reduction, with sulfate removal rates (SRR) of approximately 1-3 mol/m3/d, as well as effective removal of Zn2+. Potential activities of fermentative + anaerobic respiratory bacteria were initially high but diminished greatly during establishment and dropped further during performance and decline. In contrast, potential SRB activity rose during establishment, peaked during performance, and diminished as performance declined. Potential methanogen activity was low; in addition, SRB-methanogen substrate competition was shown not to limit SRB activity. Cellulolytic bacteria showed no substrate limitation at any time. However, fermenters experienced substrate limitation by Day 0, SRB by Day 27, and methanogens by Day 41, showing the dependence of each group on upstream populations to provide substrates. All potential activities, except methanogenesis, were ultimately limited by cellulose hydrolysis; in addition, all potential activities except methanogenesis declined substantially by Day 99, showing that long-term substrate deprivation strongly diminished the intrinsic capacity of the PRB community to perform.

Influence of body condition on the population dynamics of Atlantic salmon with consideration of the potential impact of sea lice.

PubMed

Susdorf, R; Salama, N K G; Lusseau, D

2017-11-21

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar is an iconic species of high conservation and economic importance. At sea, individuals typically are subject to sea lice infestation, which can have detrimental effects on their host. Over recent decades, the body condition and marine survival in NE Atlantic stocks have generally decreased, reflected in fewer adults returning to rivers, which is partly attributable to sea lice. We developed a deterministic stage-structured population model to assess condition-mediated population dynamics resulting in changing fecundity, age at sexual maturation and marine survival rate. The model is parameterized using data from the North Esk system, north-east Scotland. Both constant and density-dependent juvenile survival rates are considered. We show that even small sea lice-mediated changes in mean body condition of MSW can cause substantial population declines, whereas 1SW condition is less influential. Density dependence alleviates the condition-mediated population effect. The resilience of the population to demographic perturbations declines as adult condition is reduced. Indirect demographic changes in salmonid life-history traits (e.g., body condition) are often considered unimportant for population trajectory. The model shows that Atlantic salmon population dynamics can be highly responsive to sea lice-mediated effects on adult body condition, thus highlighting the importance of non-lethal parasitic long-term effects. © 2017 The Authors Journal of Fish Diseases Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ancient DNA reveals substantial genetic diversity in the California Condor (Gymnogyps californianus) prior to a population bottleneck

USGS Publications Warehouse

D'Elia, Jesse; Haig, Susan M.; Mullins, Thomas D.; Miller, Mark P.

2016-01-01

Critically endangered species that have undergone severe population bottlenecks often have little remaining genetic variation, making it difficult to reconstruct population histories to apply in reintroduction and recovery strategies. By using ancient DNA techniques, it is possible to combine genetic evidence from the historical population with contemporary samples to provide a more complete picture of a species' genetic variation across its historical range and through time. Applying this approach, we examined changes in the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region (526 base pairs) of the endangered California Condor (Gymnogyps californianus). Results showed a >80% reduction in unique haplotypes over the past 2 centuries. We found no spatial sorting of haplotypes in the historical population; the periphery of the range contained haplotypes that were common throughout the historical range. Direct examination of mtDNA from California Condor museum specimens provided a new window into historical population connectivity and genetic diversity showing: (1) a substantial loss of haplotypes, which is consistent with the hypothesis that condors were relatively abundant in the nineteenth century, but declined rapidly as a result of human-caused mortality; and (2) no evidence of historical population segregation, meaning that the available genetic data offer no cause to avoid releasing condors in unoccupied portions of their historical range.

Sugarcane Aphid Population Growth, Plant Injury, and Natural Enemies on Selected Grain Sorghum Hybrids in Texas and Louisiana.

PubMed

Brewer, Michael J; Gordy, John W; Kerns, David L; Woolley, James B; Rooney, William L; Bowling, Robert D

2017-10-01

In response to the 2013 outbreak of sugarcane aphid, Melanaphis sacchari (Zehntner) (Hemiptera: Aphididae), on sorghum, Sorghum bicolor (L.), in North America, experiments were conducted at three southern U.S. grain sorghum production locations (Corpus Christi, TX; Winnsboro, LA; Rosenberg, TX). The objectives were to authenticate yield decline on susceptible hybrids (2014 and 2015) and to measure aphid population growth and natural enemy prevalence on susceptible and resistant hybrids with similar genetic background (2014). Yield decline on susceptible hybrids (Tx 2752/Tx430 and DKS53-67) was more substantial when aphid population growth accelerated quickly and peaked above 300 aphids per leaf (50 to nearly 100% yield decline). Location and year variation in maximum aphid density and cumulative aphid-days was high, with doubling time values on the susceptible hybrids ranging between 3.9 and 7.9 d. On resistant Tx2752/Tx2783, leaf injury and yield decline were not seen or less severe than on its paired susceptible Tx2752/Tx430. Aphids declined on Tx2752/Tx2783 after initial colony establishment (Corpus Christi) or took about 60% longer to double in population size when compared with Tx2572/Tx430 (Winnsboro). The predominant natural enemy taxa were aphelinid mummies (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae), ladybird beetles (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), and sryphid flies (Diptera: Syrphidae), and they were more prevalent during flowering than prior to flowering. They were generally responsive to changes in aphid density of both susceptible and resistant hybrids, but variability points to need for further study. In future research, full season observations should continue as well as more detailed study of potential compatibility of sorghum resistance and biological control. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Workers who decline employment-related health insurance.

PubMed

Bernard, Didem M; Selden, Thomas M

2006-05-01

Families of workers who decline coverage represent a substantial share of the uninsured and publicly-insured population in the United States. We examined health status, access to health care, utilization, and expenditures among families that declined health insurance coverage offered by employers using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey for 2001 and 2002. We found differences in insurance status for adults and children among families with offers. We found that among low-income families with offers, children are less likely to have private insurance compared with adults. However, the majority of children who decline private insurance end up with public coverage, whereas most of adults who decline offers remain uninsured. Decliners are more likely to report poor health, yet they are also less likely to have high cost medical conditions. Families declining coverage have weaker preferences for insurance than families that take up. Although access to care is lower among the decliners who remain uninsured, decliners with public insurance have similar access to care as those with private insurance. Families turning down coverage are more likely to face high expenditure burdens as a percentage of income and more likely to have financial barriers to care. Families who decline coverage rely heavily on the safety net. Public sources and uncompensated care account for 72% of total expenditures among adults who decline coverage. Our results suggest that policy initiatives aimed at increasing take up among workers need to take into account the incentives workers face given the availability of care through public sources and uncompensated care.

The effect of changes in habitat conditions on the movement of juvenile Snail Kites Rostrhamus sociabilis

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bowling, Andrea C.; Martin, Julien; Kitchens, Wiley M.

2012-01-01

The degradation of habitats due to human activities is a major topic of interest for the conservation and management of wild populations. There is growing evidence that the Florida Everglades ecosystem continues to suffer from habitat degradation. After a period of recovery in the 1990s, the Snail Kite Rostrhamus sociabilis population suffered a substantial decline in 2001 and has not recovered since. Habitat degradation has been suggested as one of the primary reasons for this lack of recovery. As a consequence of the continued degradation of the Everglades, we hypothesized that this would have led to increased movement of juvenile Kites over time, as a consequence of the need to find more favourable habitat. We used multistate mark-recapture models to compare between-site movement probabilities of juvenile Snail Kites in the 1990s (1992–95; which corresponds to the period before the decline) and 2000s (2003–06; after the decline). Our analyses were based on an extensive radiotelemetry study (266 birds tracked monthly over the entire state of Florida for a total period of 6 years) and considered factors such as sex and age of marked individuals. There was evidence of increased movement of juvenile Snail Kites during the post-decline period from most of the wetland regions used historically by Kites. Higher movement rates may contribute to an increase in the probability of mortality of young individuals and could contribute to the observed declines.

Effective size of a wild salmonid population is greatly reduced by hatchery supplementation

PubMed Central

Christie, M R; Marine, M L; French, R A; Waples, R S; Blouin, M S

2012-01-01

Many declining and commercially important populations are supplemented with captive-born individuals that are intentionally released into the wild. These supplementation programs often create large numbers of offspring from relatively few breeding adults, which can have substantial population-level effects. We examined the genetic effects of supplementation on a wild population of steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss) from the Hood River, Oregon, by matching 12 run-years of hatchery steelhead back to their broodstock parents. We show that the effective number of breeders producing the hatchery fish (broodstock parents; Nb) was quite small (harmonic mean Nb=25 fish per brood-year vs 373 for wild fish), and was exacerbated by a high variance in broodstock reproductive success among individuals within years. The low Nb caused hatchery fish to have decreased allelic richness, increased average relatedness, more loci in linkage disequilibrium and substantial levels of genetic drift in comparison with their wild-born counterparts. We also documented a substantial Ryman–Laikre effect whereby the additional hatchery fish doubled the total number of adult fish on the spawning grounds each year, but cut the effective population size of the total population (wild and hatchery fish combined) by nearly two-thirds. We further demonstrate that the Ryman–Laikre effect is most severe in this population when (1) >10% of fish allowed onto spawning grounds are from hatcheries and (2) the hatchery fish have high reproductive success in the wild. These results emphasize the trade-offs that arise when supplementation programs attempt to balance disparate goals (increasing production while maintaining genetic diversity and fitness). PMID:22805657

Potential effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on avian habitats and populations in the northern Great Plains

USGS Publications Warehouse

Larson, Diane L.

1994-01-01

Biotic response to the buildup of greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere is considerably more complex than an adjustment to changing temperature and precipitation. The fertilization effect carbon dioxide has on some plants, the impact UVB radiation has on health and productivity of organisms, and the resulting changes in competitive balance and trophic structure must also be considered. The intent of this paper is to review direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gases on wildlife, and to explore possible effects on populations of birds and their habitats in the northern Great Plains.Many of the potential effects of increasing greenhouse gases, such as declining plant nutritional value, changes in timing of insect emergence, and fewer and saltier wetlands, foreshadow a decline in avian populations on the Great Plains. However, other possible effects such as increased drought resistance and water use efficiency of vegetation, longer growing seasons, and greater overall plant biomass promise at least some mitigation. Effects of multiple simultaneous perturbations such as can be expected under doubled carbon dioxide scenarios will require substantial basic research to clarify.

Snake fungal disease in North America: U.S. Geological Survey updates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thompson, Noelle E.; Lankau, Emily W.; Moede Rogall, Gail

2018-01-12

Snake fungal disease (SFD) results from a skin infection that has been documented only in snakes. Historically, reports of snakes with skin infections of unknown origin have been sporadic. Recently, the number of reported cases of skin infections in snakes has increased substantially. This emerging infectious disease, confirmed in numerous species of snakes, is caused by the fungus Ophidiomyces ophiodiicola. As of August 2017, O. ophiodiicola has been detected in at least 23 States and one Canadian Province. However, researchers suspect that SFD may be more widely distributed than these documented cases suggest, because efforts to monitor the health of many snake populations are limited. Snake fungal disease may also be underreported in populations where it affects snakes infrequently or in species that develop less severe illness. Signs of SFD include crusted or ulcerated scales, nodules (that is, abnormal bumps) under the skin, and facial disfiguration that can be quite severe, leading to emaciation and death. Many snake populations are already in decline due to habitat loss and dwindling prey populations, and the recent emergence of SFD may accelerate this decline, causing certain species to disappear entirely from some locations.

Conservation genetics of evolutionary lineages of the endangered mountain yellow-legged frog, Rana muscosa (Amphibia: Ranidae), in southern California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schoville, Sean D.; Tustall, Tate S.; Vredenburg, Vance T.; Backlin, Adam R.; Gallegos, Elizabeth; Wood, Dustin A.; Fisher, Robert N.

2011-01-01

Severe population declines led to the listing of southern California Rana muscosa (Ranidae) as endangered in 2002. Nine small populations inhabit watersheds in three isolated mountain ranges, the San Gabriel, San Bernardino and San Jacinto. One population from the Dark Canyon tributary in the San Jacinto Mountains has been used to establish a captive breeding population at the San Diego Zoo Institute for Conservation Research. Because these populations may still be declining, it is critical to gather information on how genetic variation is structured in these populations and what historical inter-population connectivity existed between populations. Additionally, it is not clear whether these populations are rapidly losing genetic diversity due to population bottlenecks. Using mitochondrial and microsatellite data, we examine patterns of genetic variation in southern California and one of the last remaining populations of R. muscosa in the southern Sierra Nevada. We find low levels of genetic variation within each population and evidence of genetic bottlenecks. Additionally, substantial population structure is evident, suggesting a high degree of historical isolation within and between mountain ranges. Based on estimates from a multi-population isolation with migration analysis, these populations diversified during glacial episodes of the Pleistocene, with little gene flow during population divergence. Our data demonstrate that unique evolutionary lineages of R. muscosa occupy each mountain range in southern California and should be managed separately. The captive breeding program at Dark Canyon is promising, although mitigating the loss of neutral genetic diversity relative to the natural population might require additional breeding frogs.

Phase coupling and synchrony in the spatiotemporal dynamics of muskrat and mink populations across Canada

PubMed Central

Haydon, D. T.; Stenseth, N. C.; Boyce, M. S.; Greenwood, P. E.

2001-01-01

Population ecologists have traditionally focused on the patterns and causes of population variation in the temporal domain for which a substantial body of practical analytic techniques have been developed. More recently, numerous studies have documented how populations may fluctuate synchronously over large spatial areas; analyses of such spatially extended time-series have started to provide additional clues regarding the causes of these population fluctuations and explanations for their synchronous occurrence. Here, we report on the development of a phase-based method for identifying coupling between temporally coincident but spatially distributed cyclic time-series, which we apply to the numbers of muskrat and mink recorded at 81 locations across Canada. The analysis reveals remarkable parallel clines in the strength of coupling between proximate populations of both species—declining from west to east—together with a corresponding increase in observed synchrony between these populations the further east they are located. PMID:11606729

Specialist Individuals, Generalist Populations, and Gentoo Penguin Foraging Ecology Across the Scotia Arc During a Time of Rapid Environmental Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Herman, R.; Polito, M. J.

2016-02-01

Populations of Gentoo penguins (Pygoscelis papua), have increased in the Scotia arc in the last four decades, while sister species such as Chinstrap (P. antarctics) and Adélie penguins (P. adeliae) have experienced substantial declines in numbers. Previous dietary analyses suggest Gentoo penguins have a generalist foraging niche, which may help buffer them from recent climate-driven declines in key prey species, such as Antarctic krill (Euphausia superba). Ecological theory indicates that generalist populations fall under two different categories: Type A generalist populations exhibit large variation within individuals, and little variation between individuals, where Type B generalist populations are comprised of individual specialists, with large variation between individuals. It is important to identify which type of generalist population Gentoo penguins fall under, as these strategies impart differing ecological and evolutionary ramifications under times of environmental change. We conducted stable isotope analysis using tail feathers from Gentoo penguins at four breeding sites across the Scotia arc, including the Falkland Islands, South Georgia, the South Shetland Islands, and the Western Antarctic Peninsula, to assess individual variation in winter diets and determine the type of generalist strategies that Gentoo penguins utilize. Preliminary analysis indicates the presence of individual specialization within the four geographically distinct breeding colonies, suggesting that individual resilience to further shifts in food availability may vary within Gentoo penguin populations.

Estimation of mussel population response to hydrologic alteration in a southeastern U.S. stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Peterson, J.T.; Wisniewski, J.M.; Shea, C.P.; Rhett, Jackson C.

2011-01-01

The southeastern United States has experienced severe, recurrent drought, rapid human population growth, and increasing agricultural irrigation during recent decades, resulting in greater demand for the water resources. During the same time period, freshwater mussels (Unioniformes) in the region have experienced substantial population declines. Consequently, there is growing interest in determining how mussel population declines are related to activities associated with water resource development. Determining the causes of mussel population declines requires, in part, an understanding of the factors influencing mussel population dynamics. We developed Pradel reverse-time, tag-recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment, and population growth rates for three federally endangered mussel species in the Apalachicola- Chattahoochee-Flint River Basin, Georgia. The models were parameterized using mussel tag-recapture data collected over five consecutive years from Sawhatchee Creek, located in southwestern Georgia. Model estimates indicated that mussel survival was strongly and negatively related to high flows during the summer, whereas recruitment was strongly and positively related to flows during the spring and summer. Using these models, we simulated mussel population dynamics under historic (1940-1969) and current (1980-2008) flow regimes and under increasing levels of water use to evaluate the relative effectiveness of alternative minimum flow regulations. The simulations indicated that the probability of simulated mussel population extinction was at least 8 times greater under current hydrologic regimes. In addition, simulations of mussel extinction under varying levels of water use indicated that the relative risk of extinction increased with increased water use across a range of minimum flow regulations. The simulation results also indicated that our estimates of the effects of water use on mussel extinction were influenced by the assumptions about the dynamics of the system, highlighting the need for further study of mussel population dynamics. ?? 2011 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC (outside the USA).

A climate trend analysis of Sudan

USGS Publications Warehouse

Funk, Christopher C.; Eilerts, Gary; Verdin, Jim; Rowland, Jim; Marshall, Michael

2011-01-01

Summer rains in western and southern Sudan have declined by 10-20 percent since the mid-1970s. Observed warming of more than 1 degree Celsius is equivalent to another 10-20 percent reduction in rainfall for crops. The warming and drying have impacted southern Darfur and areas around Juba. Rainfall declines west of Juba threaten southern Sudan's future food production prospects. In many cases, areas with changing climate are coincident with zones of substantial conflict, suggesting some degree of association; however, the contribution of climate change to these conflicts is not currently understood. Rapid population growth and the expansion of farming and pastoralism under a more variable climate regime could dramatically increase the number of at-risk people in Sudan over the next 20 years.

Dynamics of Severe and Non-Severe Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Young Children in Israel Following PCV7/PCV13 Introduction.

PubMed

Glikman, Daniel; Dagan, Ron; Barkai, Galia; Averbuch, Diana; Guri, Alex; Givon-Lavi, Noga; Ben-Shimol, Shalom

2018-05-10

The introduction of the pneumococcal conjugated vaccines (PCVs) resulted in a substantial reduction of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) rates. However, impact on non-severe IPD (mostly occult bacteremia) has not yet been fully elucidated.We assessed severe and non-severe IPD (SIPD and NSIPD, respectively) rate dynamics in children <5 years in Israel before and after PCV7/PCV13 implementation. A prospective, population-based, nationwide surveillance. All IPD episodes recorded from 1999 through 2015, were included. NSIPD was defined as IPD episodes without meningitis, pneumonia or mastoiditis in a child with a favorable outcome (not-hospitalized or hospitalized in a non-intensive care unit <5 days, without mortality). Three sub-periods were defined: pre-PCV (1999-2008), PCV7 (2010-2011) and PCV13 (2013-2015). Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were calculated. Overall, 4,457 IPD episodes were identified; 3,398 (76.2%) SIPD, 1,022 (22.9%) NSIPD and 37 (0.8%) unknown. In 90% of NSIPD episodes, no focus was identified.In the PCV7 period, NSIPD rates significantly declined by 52%, while SIPD rates declined less prominently by 24%. Following PCV13 introduction, compared with the PCV7 period, NSIPD rates declined non-significantly by 17% while SIPD rates declined significantly further by an additional 53%. These trends resulted in overall reductions (comparing PCV13 and pre-PCV periods) of NSIPD and SIPD of 60% (IRR=0.4; 0.32-0.51) and 64% (IRR=0.36; 0.32-0.42), respectively. Following PCV7/PCV13 introduction, SIPD and NSIPD rates substantially declined, with differences in rate-dynamics, alluding to differences in serotype distribution between the two groups. Future surveillance is warranted when considering modification in treatment protocols for suspected occult bacteremia/NSIPD cases.

Multiple Imputation of Cognitive Performance as a Repeatedly Measured Outcome

PubMed Central

Rawlings, Andreea M.; Sang, Yingying; Sharrett, A. Richey; Coresh, Josef; Griswold, Michael; Kucharska-Newton, Anna M.; Palta, Priya; Wruck, Lisa M.; Gross, Alden L.; Deal, Jennifer A.; Power, Melinda C.; Bandeen-Roche, Karen

2016-01-01

Background Longitudinal studies of cognitive performance are sensitive to dropout, as participants experiencing cognitive deficits are less likely to attend study visits, which may bias estimated associations between exposures of interest and cognitive decline. Multiple imputation is a powerful tool for handling missing data, however its use for missing cognitive outcome measures in longitudinal analyses remains limited. Methods We use multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE) to impute cognitive performance scores of participants who did not attend the 2011-2013 exam of the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study. We examined the validity of imputed scores using observed and simulated data under varying assumptions. We examined differences in the estimated association between diabetes at baseline and 20-year cognitive decline with and without imputed values. Lastly, we discuss how different analytic methods (mixed models and models fit using generalized estimate equations) and choice of for whom to impute result in different estimands. Results Validation using observed data showed MICE produced unbiased imputations. Simulations showed a substantial reduction in the bias of the 20-year association between diabetes and cognitive decline comparing MICE (3-4% bias) to analyses of available data only (16-23% bias) in a construct where missingness was strongly informative but realistic. Associations between diabetes and 20-year cognitive decline were substantially stronger with MICE than in available-case analyses. Conclusions Our study suggests when informative data are available for non-examined participants, MICE can be an effective tool for imputing cognitive performance and improving assessment of cognitive decline, though careful thought should be given to target imputation population and analytic model chosen, as they may yield different estimands. PMID:27619926

Severe mammal declines coincide with proliferation of invasive Burmese pythons in Everglades National Park

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dorcas, Michael E.; Wilson, John D.; Reed, Robert N.; Snow, Ray W.; Rochford, Michael R.; Miller, Melissa A.; Meshaka, Walter E.; Andreadis, Paul T.; Mazzotti, Frank J.; Romagosa, Christina M.; Hart, Kristen M.

2012-01-01

Invasive species represent a significant threat to global biodiversity and a substantial economic burden. Burmese pythons, giant constricting snakes native to Asia, now are found throughout much of southern Florida, including all of Everglades National Park (ENP). Pythons have increased dramatically in both abundance and geographic range since 2000 and consume a wide variety of mammals and birds. Here we report severe apparent declines in mammal populations that coincide temporally and spatially with the proliferation of pythons in ENP. Before 2000, mammals were encountered frequently during nocturnal road surveys within ENP. In contrast, road surveys totaling 56,971 km from 2003–2011 documented a 99.3% decrease in the frequency of raccoon observations, decreases of 98.9% and 87.5% for opossum and bobcat observations, respectively, and failed to detect rabbits. Road surveys also revealed that these species are more common in areas where pythons have been discovered only recently and are most abundant outside the python's current introduced range. These findings suggest that predation by pythons has resulted in dramatic declines in mammals within ENP and that introduced apex predators, such as giant constrictors, can exert significant top-down pressure on prey populations. Severe declines in easily observed and/or common mammals, such as raccoons and bobcats, bode poorly for species of conservation concern, which often are more difficult to sample and occur at lower densities.

Effects of road mortality and mitigation measures on amphibian populations.

PubMed

Beebee, Trevor J C

2013-08-01

Road mortality is a widely recognized but rarely quantified threat to the viability of amphibian populations. The global extent of the problem is substantial and factors affecting the number of animals killed on highways include life-history traits and landscape features. Secondary effects include genetic isolation due to roads acting as barriers to migration. Long-term effects of roads on population dynamics are often severe and mitigation methods include volunteer rescues and under-road tunnels. Despite the development of methods that reduce road kill in specific locations, especially under-road tunnels and culverts, there is scant evidence that such measures will protect populations over the long term. There also seems little likelihood that funding will be forthcoming to ameliorate the problem at the scale necessary to prevent further population declines. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Consequences of actively managing a small Bull Trout population in a fragmented landscape

USGS Publications Warehouse

Al-Chokhachy, Robert K.; Moran, Sean; McHugh, Peter; Bernall, Shana; Fredenberg, Wade; DosSantos, Joseph M.

2015-01-01

Habitat fragmentation, which affects many native salmonid species, is one of the major factors contributing to the declines in distribution and abundance of Bull Trout Salvelinus confluentus. Increasingly, managers are considering options to maintain and enhance the persistence of isolated local populations through active management strategies. Understanding the ecological consequences of such actions is a necessary step in conservation planning. We used an individual-based model to evaluate the consequences of an ongoing management program aimed at mitigating the anthropogenic fragmentation of the lower Clark Fork River in Montana. Under this program juvenile Bull Trout are trapped and transported from small, headwater source populations to Lake Pend Oreille, Idaho, for rearing, and adults are subsequently recaptured in their upstream migration and returned to the natal population for spawning. We examined one of these populations and integrated empirical estimates of demographic parameters to simulate different management scenarios where moderate (n = 4) and high (n = 8) numbers of age-2, age-3, or age-4 Bull Trout were removed for transport with variable return rates under both demographic stochasticity and environmental perturbations. Our results indicated the risks from removal with no returns increased substantially when removal totals and age of Bull Trout removed from the simulated population increased. Specifically, removing eight age-3 or age-4 individuals resulted in 26% and 62% reductions in average adult population size, respectively, across simulations. We found the risks of transport were not likely alleviated with low (3%) or moderate (6%) return rates, and there were considerable risks of declines for the source population even when return rates were extremely high (>12%). Our simulations indicated little risk of declines for the source population with removals of age-2 Bull Trout, and any risks were alleviated with low return rates. However, we found higher return rates were particularly beneficial in the presence of large, density-independent perturbations.

The impact of demographic change on tax revenue.

PubMed

Goudswaard, K; Van De Kar, H

1994-09-01

"This paper [simulates] the impact of demographic change on direct tax revenue for the Netherlands using extensive survey data and population projections. Projected demographic development in the Netherlands fits in well with the OECD mainstream. The analysis thus has a more general relevance. The simulations indicate a 27 percent rise in tax revenue until 2010 because of population growth and a relatively older labor force. After 2030, revenue falls as a consequence of a declining population and a rapidly rising share of the elderly. The authors also simulated a variant in which labor-force participation rates are set on the substantially higher OECD average. In this case, the increase in tax revenue almost doubles as compared to the base variant." excerpt

Effects of household dynamics on resource consumption and biodiversity.

PubMed

Liu, Jianguo; Daily, Gretchen C; Ehrlich, Paul R; Luck, Gary W

2003-01-30

Human population size and growth rate are often considered important drivers of biodiversity loss, whereas household dynamics are usually neglected. Aggregate demographic statistics may mask substantial changes in the size and number of households, and their effects on biodiversity. Household dynamics influence per capita consumption and thus biodiversity through, for example, consumption of wood for fuel, habitat alteration for home building and associated activities, and greenhouse gas emissions. Here we report that growth in household numbers globally, and particularly in countries with biodiversity hotspots (areas rich in endemic species and threatened by human activities), was more rapid than aggregate population growth between 1985 and 2000. Even when population size declined, the number of households increased substantially. Had the average household size (that is, the number of occupants) remained static, there would have been 155 million fewer households in hotspot countries in 2000. Reduction in average household size alone will add a projected 233 million additional households to hotspot countries during the period 2000-15. Rapid increase in household numbers, often manifested as urban sprawl, and resultant higher per capita resource consumption in smaller households pose serious challenges to biodiversity conservation.

Recent Trends in Coverage of the Mexican-Born Population of the United States: Results From Applying Multiple Methods Across Time

PubMed Central

Van Hook, Jennifer; Bean, Frank D.; Bachmeier, James D.; Tucker, Catherine

2014-01-01

The accuracy of counts of U.S. racial/ethnic and immigrant groups depends on coverage of the foreign-born in official data. Because Mexicans constitute by far the largest single national-origin group among the foreign-born in the United States, we compile new evidence about the coverage of the Mexican-born population in the 2000 census and 2001–2010 American Community Survey (ACS) using three techniques: a death registration, a birth registration, and a net migration method. For the late 1990s and first half of the 2000–2010 decade, results indicate that coverage error was somewhat higher than currently assumed but substantially declined by the latter half of the 2000–2010 decade. Additionally, we find evidence that U.S. census and ACS data miss substantial numbers of children of Mexican immigrants, as well as people who are most likely to be unauthorized: namely, working-aged Mexican immigrants (ages 15–64), especially males. The findings highlight the heterogeneity of the Mexican foreign-born population and the ways in which migration dynamics may affect population coverage. PMID:24570373

Anthropogenic transformation of the terrestrial biosphere.

PubMed

Ellis, Erle C

2011-03-13

Human populations and their use of land have transformed most of the terrestrial biosphere into anthropogenic biomes (anthromes), causing a variety of novel ecological patterns and processes to emerge. To assess whether human populations and their use of land have directly altered the terrestrial biosphere sufficiently to indicate that the Earth system has entered a new geological epoch, spatially explicit global estimates of human populations and their use of land were analysed across the Holocene for their potential to induce irreversible novel transformation of the terrestrial biosphere. Human alteration of the terrestrial biosphere has been significant for more than 8000 years. However, only in the past century has the majority of the terrestrial biosphere been transformed into intensively used anthromes with predominantly novel anthropogenic ecological processes. At present, even were human populations to decline substantially or use of land become far more efficient, the current global extent, duration, type and intensity of human transformation of ecosystems have already irreversibly altered the terrestrial biosphere at levels sufficient to leave an unambiguous geological record differing substantially from that of the Holocene or any prior epoch. It remains to be seen whether the anthropogenic biosphere will be sustained and continue to evolve.

Trends in Modifiable Risk Factors Are Associated With Declining Incidence of Hospitalized and Nonhospitalized Acute Coronary Heart Disease in a Population.

PubMed

Mannsverk, Jan; Wilsgaard, Tom; Mathiesen, Ellisiv B; Løchen, Maja-Lisa; Rasmussen, Knut; Thelle, Dag S; Njølstad, Inger; Hopstock, Laila Arnesdatter; Bønaa, Kaare Harald

2016-01-05

Few studies have used individual person data to study whether contemporary trends in the incidence of coronary heart disease are associated with changes in modifiable coronary risk factors. We identified 29 582 healthy men and women ≥25 years of age who participated in 3 population surveys conducted between 1994 and 2008 in Tromsø, Norway. Age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates were calculated for coronary heart disease overall, out-of-hospital sudden death, and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation and non-ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. We measured coronary risk factors at each survey and estimated the relationship between changes in risk factors and changes in incidence trends. A total of 1845 participants had an incident acute coronary heart disease event during 375 064 person-years of follow-up from 1994 to 2010. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence of total coronary heart disease decreased by 3% (95% confidence interval, 2.0-4.0; P<0.001) each year. This decline was driven by decreases in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in coronary risk factors accounted for 66% (95% confidence interval, 48-97; P<0.001) of the decline in total coronary heart disease. Favorable changes in cholesterol contributed 32% to the decline, whereas blood pressure, smoking, and physical activity each contributed 14%, 13%, and 9%, respectively. We observed a substantial decline in the incidence of coronary heart disease that was driven by reductions in out-of-hospital sudden death and hospitalized ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Changes in modifiable coronary risk factors accounted for 66% of the decline in coronary heart disease events. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Terminal decline and practice effects in older adults without dementia: the MoVIES project.

PubMed

Dodge, Hiroko H; Wang, Chia-Ning; Chang, Chung-Chou H; Ganguli, Mary

2011-08-23

To track cognitive change over time in dementia-free older adults and to examine terminal cognitive decline. A total of 1,230 subjects who remained free from dementia over 14 years of follow-up were included in a population-based epidemiologic cohort study. First, we compared survivors and decedents on their trajectories of 5 cognitive functions (learning, memory, language, psychomotor speed, executive functions), dissociating practice effects which can mask clinically significant decline from age-associated cognitive decline. We used longitudinal mixed-effects models with penalized linear spline. Second, limiting the sample to 613 subjects who died during follow-up, we identified the inflection points at which the rate of cognitive decline accelerated, in relation to time of death, controlling for practice effects. We used mixed-effects model with a change point. Age-associated cognitive trajectories were similar between decedents and survivors without dementia. However, substantial differences were observed between the trajectories of practice effects of survivors and decedents, resembling those usually observed between normal and mildly cognitively impaired elderly. Executive and language functions showed the earliest terminal declines, more than 9 years prior to death, independent of practice effects. Terminal cognitive decline in older adults without dementia may reflect presymptomatic disease which does not cross the clinical threshold during life. Alternatively, cognitive decline attributed to normal aging may itself represent underlying neurodegenerative or vascular pathology. Although we cannot conclude definitively from this study, the separation of practice effects from age-associated decline could help identify preclinical dementia.

Exploring Agro-Climatic Trends in Ethiopia Using CHIRPS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pedreros, D. H.; Funk, C. C.; Brown, M. E.; Korecha, D.; Seid, Y. M.

2015-12-01

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) uses the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) to monitor agricultural food production in different regions of the world. CHIRPS is a 1981-present, 5 day, approximately 5km resolution, rainfall product based on a combination of geostationary satellite observations, a high resolution climatology and in situ station observations. Furthermore, FEWS NET has developed a gridded implementation of the Water Requirement Satisfaction Index (WRSI), a water balance measurement indicator of crop performance. This study takes advantage of the CHIRPS' long term period of record and high spatial and temporal resolution to examine agro-climatic trends in Ethiopia. We use the CHIRPS rainfall dataset to calculate the WRSI for the boreal spring and summer crop seasons, as well as for spring-summer rangelands conditions. We find substantial long term rainfall declines in the spring and summer seasons across southeastern and northeastern Ethiopia. Crop Model results indicate that rainfall declines in the cropped regions have been associated with water deficits during the critical grain filling periods in well populated and/or highly vulnerable parts of eastern Ethiopia. WRSI results in the pastoral areas indicate substantial reductions in rangeland health during the later part of the growing seasons. These health declines correspond to the regions of Somaliland and Afar that have experienced chronic severe food insecurity since 2010. Key words: CHIRPS, satellite estimated rainfall, agricultural production

Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics and Reproductive Success in Post-Fire Lodgepole and Ponderosa Pine Forests in Northeastern Utah

PubMed Central

Lerch, Andrew P.; Pfammatter, Jesse A.

2016-01-01

Fire injury can increase tree susceptibility to some bark beetles (Curculionidae, Scolytinae), but whether wildfires can trigger outbreaks of species such as mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) is not well understood. We monitored 1173 lodgepole (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Doug.) and 599 ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa Doug. ex Law) pines for three years post-wildfire in the Uinta Mountains of northeastern Utah in an area with locally endemic mountain pine beetle. We examined how the degree and type of fire injury influenced beetle attacks, brood production, and subsequent tree mortality, and related these to beetle population changes over time. Mountain pine beetle population levels were high the first two post-fire years in lodgepole pine, and then declined. In ponderosa pine, populations declined each year after initial post-fire sampling. Compared to trees with strip or failed attacks, mass attacks occurred on trees with greater fire injury, in both species. Overall, a higher degree of damage to crowns and boles was associated with higher attack rates in ponderosa pines, but additional injury was more likely to decrease attack rates in lodgepole pines. In lodgepole pine, attacks were initially concentrated on fire-injured trees, but during subsequent years beetles attacked substantial numbers of uninjured trees. In ponderosa pine, attacks were primarily on injured trees each year, although these stands were more heavily burned and had few uninjured trees. In total, 46% of all lodgepole and 56% of ponderosa pines underwent some degree of attack. Adult brood emergence within caged bole sections decreased with increasing bole char in lodgepole pine but increased in ponderosa pine, however these relationships did not scale to whole trees. Mountain pine beetle populations in both tree species four years post-fire were substantially lower than the year after fire, and wildfire did not result in population outbreaks. PMID:27783632

Mountain Pine Beetle Dynamics and Reproductive Success in Post-Fire Lodgepole and Ponderosa Pine Forests in Northeastern Utah.

PubMed

Lerch, Andrew P; Pfammatter, Jesse A; Bentz, Barbara J; Raffa, Kenneth F

2016-01-01

Fire injury can increase tree susceptibility to some bark beetles (Curculionidae, Scolytinae), but whether wildfires can trigger outbreaks of species such as mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae Hopkins) is not well understood. We monitored 1173 lodgepole (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Doug.) and 599 ponderosa (Pinus ponderosa Doug. ex Law) pines for three years post-wildfire in the Uinta Mountains of northeastern Utah in an area with locally endemic mountain pine beetle. We examined how the degree and type of fire injury influenced beetle attacks, brood production, and subsequent tree mortality, and related these to beetle population changes over time. Mountain pine beetle population levels were high the first two post-fire years in lodgepole pine, and then declined. In ponderosa pine, populations declined each year after initial post-fire sampling. Compared to trees with strip or failed attacks, mass attacks occurred on trees with greater fire injury, in both species. Overall, a higher degree of damage to crowns and boles was associated with higher attack rates in ponderosa pines, but additional injury was more likely to decrease attack rates in lodgepole pines. In lodgepole pine, attacks were initially concentrated on fire-injured trees, but during subsequent years beetles attacked substantial numbers of uninjured trees. In ponderosa pine, attacks were primarily on injured trees each year, although these stands were more heavily burned and had few uninjured trees. In total, 46% of all lodgepole and 56% of ponderosa pines underwent some degree of attack. Adult brood emergence within caged bole sections decreased with increasing bole char in lodgepole pine but increased in ponderosa pine, however these relationships did not scale to whole trees. Mountain pine beetle populations in both tree species four years post-fire were substantially lower than the year after fire, and wildfire did not result in population outbreaks.

Birds in space and time: genetic changes accompanying anthropogenic habitat fragmentation in the endangered black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla)

PubMed Central

Athrey, Giridhar; Barr, Kelly R; Lance, Richard F; Leberg, Paul L

2012-01-01

Anthropogenic alterations in the natural environment can be a potent evolutionary force. For species that have specific habitat requirements, habitat loss can result in substantial genetic effects, potentially impeding future adaptability and evolution. The endangered black-capped vireo (Vireo atricapilla) suffered a substantial contraction of breeding habitat and population size during much of the 20th century. In a previous study, we reported significant differentiation between remnant populations, but failed to recover a strong genetic signal of bottlenecks. In this study, we used a combination of historical and contemporary sampling from Oklahoma and Texas to (i) determine whether population structure and genetic diversity have changed over time and (ii) evaluate alternate demographic hypotheses using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC). We found lower genetic diversity and increased differentiation in contemporary samples compared to historical samples, indicating nontrivial impacts of fragmentation. ABC analysis suggests a bottleneck having occurred in the early part of the 20th century, resulting in a magnitude decline in effective population size. Genetic monitoring with temporally spaced samples, such as used in this study, can be highly informative for assessing the genetic impacts of anthropogenic fragmentation on threatened or endangered species, as well as revealing the dynamics of small populations over time. PMID:23028396

Measles, mumps, and rubella antibody patterns of persistence and rate of decline following the second dose of the MMR vaccine.

PubMed

Seagle, Emma E; Bednarczyk, Robert A; Hill, Tenisha; Fiebelkorn, Amy Parker; Hickman, Carole J; Icenogle, Joseph P; Belongia, Edward A; McLean, Huong Q

2018-02-01

Antibodies to measles, mumps, and rubella decline 3% per year on average, and have a high degree of individual variation. Yet, individual variations and differences across antigens are not well understood. To better understand potential implications on individual and population susceptibility, we reanalyzed longitudinal data to identify patterns of seropositivity and persistence. Children vaccinated with the second dose of measles, mumps, rubella vaccine (MMR2) at 4-6 years of age were followed up to 12 years post-vaccination. The rates of antibody decline were assessed using regression models, accounting for differences between and within subjects. Most of the 302 participants were seropositive throughout follow-up (96% measles, 88% mumps, 79% rubella). The rate of antibody decline was associated with MMR2 response and baseline titer for measles and age at first dose of MMR (MMR1) for rubella. No demographic or clinical factors were associated with mumps rate of decline. One month post-MMR2, geometric mean titer (GMT) to measles was high (3892 mIU/mL), but declined on average 9.7% per year among those with the same baseline titer and <2-fold increase post-MMR2. Subjects with ≥2-fold experienced a slower decline (≤7.4%). GMT to rubella was 149 one month post-MMR2, declining 2.6% and 5.9% per year among those who received MMR1 at 12-15 months and >15 months, respectively. GMT to mumps one month post-MMR2 was 151, declining 9.2% per year. Only 14% of subjects had the same persistence trends for all antigens. The rate of antibody decay varied substantially among individuals and the 3 antigen groups. A fast rate of decline coupled with high variation was observed for mumps, yet no predictors were identified. Future research should focus on better understanding waning titers to mumps and its impacts on community protection and individual susceptibility, in light of recent outbreaks in vaccinated populations. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Total Joint Arthroplasty and the Risk of Myocardial Infarction - A General Population, Propensity Score-Matched Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Lu, Na; Misra, Devyani; Neogi, Tuhina; Choi, Hyon K.; Zhang, Yuqing

2015-01-01

Background We sought to replicate recent findings that total knee arthroplasty (TKA) or total hip arthroplasty (THA) surgery substantially reduces the risk of serious cardiovascular events among osteoarthritis patients in a UK general population. Methods We conducted a time-stratified propensity score-matched cohort study for the outcome of myocardial infarction (MI). The study population included individuals aged ≥50 years who had a Readcode diagnosis of knee osteoarthritis (to evaluate TKA) or hip osteoarthritis (to evaluate THA) between January 2000 and December 2012. Results Among 13,849 patients who underwent TKA and 13,849 matched non-TKA controls 306 and 286 developed MI during the follow-up, respectively. During the first postoperative month, the risk of MI was substantially increased among TKA group compared with non-TKA group (hazard ratio 8.75; 95% CI, 3.11–24.62), and then gradually declined during the subsequent follow-up. The HR of the entire follow-up was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.82–1.18). The corresponding HRs for THA (n=6,063) compared with non-THA were 4.33 (95% CI, 1.24–15.21) and 0.87 (95% CI, 0.66–1.15), respectively. Using venous thromboembolism as a positive control outcome, both the first month and overall HRs of MI were substantially increased for TKA and for THA, respectively. Conclusion These findings provide the first general population-based evidence that TKA and THA among osteoarthritis patients are associated with a substantially increased risk of MI during the immediate postoperative period. However, its overall long-term impact was null, unlike the risk of venous thromboembolism that remained years after the procedure. PMID:26331443

Pathogen dynamics during invasion and establishment of white-nose syndrome explain mechanisms of host persistence.

PubMed

Frick, Winifred F; Cheng, Tina L; Langwig, Kate E; Hoyt, Joseph R; Janicki, Amanda F; Parise, Katy L; Foster, Jeffrey T; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2017-03-01

Disease dynamics during pathogen invasion and establishment determine the impacts of disease on host populations and determine the mechanisms of host persistence. Temporal progression of prevalence and infection intensity illustrate whether tolerance, resistance, reduced transmission, or demographic compensation allow initially declining populations to persist. We measured infection dynamics of the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans that causes white-nose syndrome in bats by estimating pathogen prevalence and load in seven bat species at 167 hibernacula over a decade as the pathogen invaded, became established, and some host populations stabilized. Fungal loads increased rapidly and prevalence rose to nearly 100% at most sites within 2 yr of invasion in six of seven species. Prevalence and loads did not decline over time despite huge reductions in colony sizes, likely due to an extensive environmental reservoir. However, there was substantial variation in fungal load among sites with persisting colonies, suggesting that both tolerance and resistance developed at different sites in the same species. In contrast, one species disappeared from hibernacula within 3 yr of pathogen invasion. Variable host responses to pathogen invasion require different management strategies to prevent disease-induced extinction and to facilitate evolution of tolerance or resistance in persisting populations. © 2016 by the Ecological Society of America.

Rangewide phylogeography and landscape genetics of the Western U.S. endemic frog Rana boylii (Ranidae): Implications for the conservation of frogs and rivers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lind, A.J.; Spinks, P.Q.; Fellers, G.M.; Shaffer, H.B.

2011-01-01

Genetic data are increasingly being used in conservation planning for declining species. We sampled both the ecological and distributional limits of the foothill yellow-legged frog, Rana boylii to characterize mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in this declining, riverine amphibian. We evaluated 1525 base pairs (bp) of cytochrome b and ND2 fragments for 77 individuals from 34 localities using phylogenetic and population genetic analyses. We constructed gene trees using maximum likelihood and Bayesian inference, and quantified genetic variance (using AMOVA and partial Mantel tests) within and among hydrologic regions and river basins. Several moderately supported, geographically-cohesive mtDNA clades were recovered for R. boylii. While genetic variation was low among populations in the largest, most inclusive clade, samples from localities at the edges of the geographic range demonstrated substantial genetic divergence from each other and from more central populations. Hydrologic regions and river basins, which represent likely dispersal corridors for R. boylii, accounted for significant levels of genetic variation. These results suggest that both rivers and larger hydrologic and geographic regions should be used in conservation planning for R. boylii. ?? 2010 US Government.

Organochlorine residues in six species of estuarine birds, South Carolina, 1971-75

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blus, L.J.; Lamont, T.G.

1979-01-01

In South Carolina between 1971 and 1975, authors evaluated the occurrence of organochlorine residues in the laughing gull (Larus atricilla), white ibis (Eudocimus albus), glossy ibis (Plegadis falcinellus), American oystercatcher (Haematopus palliatus), willet (Catoptrophorus semipalmatus), and ruddy turnstone (Arenaria interpres). Tissues of birds found dead and eggs were analyzed, eggshell thicknesses were measured, and incidental observations were made of reproductive success and population status. Eggshell thickness of the white bis, American oystercatcher, and laughing gull were not significantly different (P less than 0.05) from the pre-1947 norms. DDE and polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were found most frequently and at the highest concentration in eggs. DDE residues declined significantly in oystercatcher eggs, and declined slightly in laughing gull eggs; no change was noted in white ibis eggs. No consistent trends were found for dieldrin and PCBs. Authors found no obvious problems with reproductive success of any species. Populations of the five species breeding in South Carolina appear stable. The white ibis and laughing gull in South Carolina have experienced population explosions over the past 50 years; the glossy ibis has increased substantially since the first documented breeding records in 1947.

Provider Distribution Changes in Dual-Energy X-Ray Absorptiometry in the Medicare Population Over the Past Decade.

PubMed

Intenzo, Charles M; Parker, Laurence; Levin, David C; Kim, Sung M; Rao, Vijay M

2016-01-01

Both radiologists as well as nonimaging physicians perform dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) imaging in the United States. This study aims to compare provider distribution between these physician groups on the Medicare population, which is the predominant age group of patients evaluated by this imaging procedure. Using the 2 relevant Current Procedural Terminology, Fourth Edition codes for DXA scans, source data were obtained from the CMS Physician Supplier Procedure Summary Master Files from 2003 through 2013. DXA scan procedure volumes for radiologists and nonradiologists on Medicare patients were tabulated. Utilization rates were calculated. From 2003 to 2013, the total number of DXA scans performed on Medicare patients decreased by 2%. However, over the same period, the number of scans performed by radiologists had increased by 25% over nonimaging specialists, whose utilization had declined by approximately the same amount. From 2003 to 2013, the rate of utilization of DXA scans in the Medicare fee-for-service population declined somewhat. However, radiologists continue to gain market share from other specialists and now predominate in this type of imaging by a substantial margin. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Clinical Densitometry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Breaking Up Is Hard to Count: The Rise of Divorce in the United States, 1980–2010

PubMed Central

Kennedy, Sheela; Ruggles, Steven

2014-01-01

This article critically evaluates the available data on trends in divorce in the United States. We find that both vital statistics and retrospective survey data on divorce after 1990 underestimate recent marital instability. These flawed data have led some analysts to conclude that divorce has been stable or declining for the past three decades. Using new data from the American Community Survey and controlling for changes in the age composition of the married population, we conclude that there was actually a substantial increase in age-standardized divorce rates between 1990 and 2008. Divorce rates have doubled over the past two decades among persons over age 35. Among the youngest couples, however, divorce rates are stable or declining. If current trends continue, overall age-standardized divorce rates could level off or even decline over the next few decades. We argue that the leveling of divorce among persons born since 1980 probably reflects the increasing selectivity of marriage. PMID:24399141

Breaking up is hard to count: the rise of divorce in the United States, 1980-2010.

PubMed

Kennedy, Sheela; Ruggles, Steven

2014-04-01

This article critically evaluates the available data on trends in divorce in the United States. We find that both vital statistics and retrospective survey data on divorce after 1990 underestimate recent marital instability. These flawed data have led some analysts to conclude that divorce has been stable or declining for the past three decades. Using new data from the American Community Survey and controlling for changes in the age composition of the married population, we conclude that there was actually a substantial increase in age-standardized divorce rates between 1990 and 2008. Divorce rates have doubled over the past two decades among persons over age 35. Among the youngest couples, however, divorce rates are stable or declining. If current trends continue, overall age-standardized divorce rates could level off or even decline over the next few decades. We argue that the leveling of divorce among persons born since 1980 probably reflects the increasing selectivity of marriage.

Population history, gene flow, and bottlenecks in island populations of a secondary seed disperser, the southern grey shrike (Lanius meridionalis koenigi)

PubMed Central

Padilla, David P; Spurgin, Lewis G; Fairfield, Eleanor A; Illera, Juan Carlos; Richardson, David S

2015-01-01

Studying the population history and demography of organisms with important ecological roles can aid understanding of evolutionary processes at the community level and inform conservation. We screened genetic variation (mtDNA and microsatellite) across the populations of the southern grey shrike (Lanius meridionalis koenigi) in the Canary Islands, where it is an endemic subspecies and an important secondary seed disperser. We show that the Canarian subspecies is polyphyletic with L. meridionalis elegans from North Africa and that shrikes have colonized the Canary Islands from North Africa multiple times. Substantial differences in genetic diversity exist across islands, which are most likely the product of a combination of historical colonization events and recent bottlenecks. The Eastern Canary Islands had the highest overall levels of genetic diversity and have probably been most recently and/or frequently colonized from Africa. Recent or ongoing bottlenecks were detected in three of the islands and are consistent with anecdotal evidence of population declines due to human disturbance. These findings are troubling given the shrike's key ecological role in the Canary Islands, and further research is needed to understand the community-level consequences of declines in shrike populations. Finally, we found moderate genetic differentiation among populations, which largely reflected the shrike's bottleneck history; however, a significant pattern of isolation-by-distance indicated that some gene flow occurs between islands. This study is a useful first step toward understanding how secondary seed dispersal operates over broad spatial scales. PMID:25628862

Sri Lanka. Spotlight.

PubMed

Hoque, M N

1985-01-01

Sri Lanka, an island country off the southeastern coast of India, populated by an estimated 16.1 million inhabitants, was one of the 1st developing countries to adopt a population policy aimed at reducing population growth and redistributing the population more equitably throughout the country. Population density is high. There are 636 persons/square mile, and 2/3 of the population lives in the southwestern and central regions of the country. Government redistribution policies seek to increase internal migration flows to the drier and less populated areas. The country's birth rate was 27 in 1982, the death rate was 6 in 1981, and the infant mortality rate was 34.4 in 1980. The rate of natural increase in 1982 was 2.1%, and the population growth rate declined from 2.5% prior to 1970 to 1.7% in 1980. The total fertility rate declined between 1963-74 from 5.0-3.4 and then increased to 3.7 in recent years. Given the age structure of the population, the population is expected to continue growing at a high rate in the coming years; however, the age at marriage is increasing and the proportion of young married women in the population is declining, and these trends will have an impact on population growth. These trends are due in part to increased educational and employment opportunities for women. The delay in marriage may also be linked to the dowry system. Given the high rate of poverty, it is difficult for parents to accummulate sufficient resources to provide dowries for their daughters. Sri lanka's economy is predominantly agricultural, with only 15% of the gross national product derived from manufacturing. Approximately 22% of thepopulation lives in urban areas. In 1981 exports totaled US$1.1 billion, and major export items were tea and rubber. In the same year, imports totaled US$1.8 billion and consisted primarily of food, petroleum, and fertilizers. The per capita gross national product was US$320 in 1982. Sri Lanka receives considerable foreign aid, and the country's family planning program receives substantial outside support.

Timber resource of Missouri's Southwestern Ozarks, 1972.

Treesearch

Arnold J. Ostrom; Jerold T. Hahn

1974-01-01

The third timber inventory of Missouri's Southwestern Ozarks Forest Survey Unit shows a substantial decline in the volumes of both growing stock and sawtimber between 1959 and 1972. Commercial forest area also declined substantially during the same period. Presented are highlights and statistics on forest area and timber volume, growth, mortality, ownership, and...

Decline in top predator body size and changing climate alter trophic structure in an oceanic ecosystem.

PubMed

Shackell, Nancy L; Frank, Kenneth T; Fisher, Jonathan A D; Petrie, Brian; Leggett, William C

2010-05-07

Globally, overfishing large-bodied groundfish populations has resulted in substantial increases in their prey populations. Where it has been examined, the effects of overfishing have cascaded down the food chain. In an intensively fished area on the western Scotian Shelf, Northwest Atlantic, the biomass of prey species increased exponentially (doubling time of 11 years) even though the aggregate biomass of their predators remained stable over 38 years. Concomitant reductions in herbivorous zooplankton and increases in phytoplankton were also evident. This anomalous trophic pattern led us to examine how declines in predator body size (approx. 60% in body mass since the early 1970s) and climatic regime influenced lower trophic levels. The increase in prey biomass was associated primarily with declines in predator body size and secondarily to an increase in stratification. Sea surface temperature and predator biomass had no influence. A regression model explained 65 per cent of prey biomass variability. Trait-mediated effects, namely a reduction in predator size, resulted in a weakening of top predation pressure. Increased stratification may have enhanced growing conditions for prey fish. Size-selective harvesting under changing climatic conditions initiated a trophic restructuring of the food chain, the effects of which may have influenced three trophic levels.

Inbreeding effects on immune response in free-living song sparrows (Melospiza melodia).

PubMed

Reid, Jane M; Arcese, Peter; Keller, Lukas F; Elliott, Kyle H; Sampson, Laura; Hasselquist, Dennis

2007-03-07

The consequences of inbreeding for host immunity to parasitic infection have broad implications for the evolutionary and dynamical impacts of parasites on populations where inbreeding occurs. To rigorously assess the magnitude and the prevalence of inbreeding effects on immunity, multiple components of host immune response should be related to inbreeding coefficient (f) in free-living individuals. We used a pedigreed, free-living population of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to test whether individual responses to widely used experimental immune challenges varied consistently with f. The patagial swelling response to phytohaemagglutinin declined markedly with f in both females and males in both 2002 and 2003, although overall inbreeding depression was greater in males. The primary antibody response to tetanus toxoid declined with f in females but not in males in both 2004 and 2005. Primary antibody responses to diphtheria toxoid were low but tended to decline with f in 2004. Overall inbreeding depression did not solely reflect particularly strong immune responses in outbred offspring of immigrant-native pairings or weak responses in highly inbred individuals. These data indicate substantial and apparently sex-specific inbreeding effects on immune response, implying that inbred hosts may be relatively susceptible to parasitic infection to differing degrees in males and females.

Competitive fitness of a predominant pelagic calcifier impaired by ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Riebesell, Ulf; Bach, Lennart T.; Bellerby, Richard G. J.; Monsalve, J. Rafael Bermúdez; Boxhammer, Tim; Czerny, Jan; Larsen, Aud; Ludwig, Andrea; Schulz, Kai G.

2017-01-01

Coccolithophores--single-celled calcifying phytoplankton--are an important group of marine primary producers and the dominant builders of calcium carbonate globally. Coccolithophores form extensive blooms and increase the density and sinking speed of organic matter via calcium carbonate ballasting. Thereby, they play a key role in the marine carbon cycle. Coccolithophore physiological responses to experimental ocean acidification have ranged from moderate stimulation to substantial decline in growth and calcification rates, combined with enhanced malformation of their calcite platelets. Here we report on a mesocosm experiment conducted in a Norwegian fjord in which we exposed a natural plankton community to a wide range of CO2-induced ocean acidification, to test whether these physiological responses affect the ecological success of coccolithophore populations. Under high-CO2 treatments, Emiliania huxleyi, the most abundant and productive coccolithophore species, declined in population size during the pre-bloom period and lost the ability to form blooms. As a result, particle sinking velocities declined by up to 30% and sedimented organic matter was reduced by up to 25% relative to controls. There were also strong reductions in seawater concentrations of the climate-active compound dimethylsulfide in CO2-enriched mesocosms. We conclude that ocean acidification can lower calcifying phytoplankton productivity, potentially creating a positive feedback to the climate system.

Population dynamics of Lake Ontario lake trout during 1985-2007

USGS Publications Warehouse

Brenden, Travis O.; Bence, James R.; Lantry, Brian F.; Lantry, Jana R.; Schaner, Ted

2011-01-01

Lake trout Salvelinus namaycush were extirpated from Lake Ontario circa 1950 owing to commercial and recreational fishing, predation by sea lampreys Petromyzon marinus, and habitat degradation. Since the 1970s, substantial efforts have been devoted to reestablishing a self-sustaining population through stocking, sea lamprey control, and harvest reduction. Although a stocking-supported population has been established, only limited natural reproduction has been detected. Since the 1990s, surveys have indicated a continuing decline in overall abundance despite fairly static stocking levels. We constructed a statistical catch-at-age model to describe the dynamics of Lake Ontario lake trout from 1985 to 2007 and explore what factor(s) could be causing the declines in abundance. Model estimates indicated that abundance had declined by approximately 76% since 1985. The factor that appeared most responsible for this was an increase in age-1 natural mortality rates from approximately 0.9 to 2.5 between 1985 and 2002. The largest source of mortality for age-2 and older fish was sea lamprey predation, followed by natural and recreational fishing mortality. Exploitation was low, harvest levels being uncertain and categorized by length rather than age. Accurate predictions of fishery harvest and survey catch per unit effort were obtained despite low harvest levels by using atypical data (e.g., numbers stocked as an absolute measure of recruitment) and a flexible modeling approach. Flexible approaches such as this might allow similar assessments for a wide range of lightly exploited stocks. The mechanisms responsible for declining age-1 lake trout survival are unknown, but the declines were coincident with an increase in the proportion of stocked fish that were of the Seneca strain and a decrease in the overall stocking rate. It is possible that earlier studies suggesting that Seneca strain lake trout would be successful in Lake Ontario are no longer applicable given the large ecosystem changes that have occurred subsequent to invasion by dreissenid mussels.

Demographic evidence of illegal harvesting of an endangered asian turtle.

PubMed

Sung, Yik-Hei; Karraker, Nancy E; Hau, Billy C H

2013-12-01

Harvesting pressure on Asian freshwater turtles is severe, and dramatic population declines of these turtles are being driven by unsustainable collection for food markets, pet trade, and traditional Chinese medicine. Populations of big-headed turtle (Platysternon megacephalum) have declined substantially across its distribution, particularly in China, because of overcollection. To understand the effects of chronic harvesting pressure on big-headed turtle populations, we examined the effects of illegal harvesting on the demography of populations in Hong Kong, where some populations still exist. We used mark-recapture methods to compare demographic characteristics between sites with harvesting histories and one site in a fully protected area. Sites with a history of illegal turtle harvesting were characterized by the absence of large adults and skewed ratios of juveniles to adults, which may have negative implications for the long-term viability of populations. These sites also had lower densities of adults and smaller adult body sizes than the protected site. Given that populations throughout most of the species' range are heavily harvested and individuals are increasingly difficult to find in mainland China, the illegal collection of turtles from populations in Hong Kong may increase over time. Long-term monitoring of populations is essential to track effects of illegal collection, and increased patrolling is needed to help control illegal harvesting of populations, particularly in national parks. Because few, if any, other completely protected populations remain in the region, our data on an unharvested population of big-headed turtles serve as an important reference for assessing the negative consequences of harvesting on populations of stream turtles. Evidencia Demográfica de la Captura Ilegal de una Tortuga Asiática en Peligro. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Thresholds in forest bird occurrence as a function of the amount of early-seral broadleaf forest at landscape scales

USGS Publications Warehouse

Betts, M.G.; Hagar, J.C.; Rivers, J.W.; Alexander, J.D.; McGarigal, K.; McComb, B.C.

2010-01-01

Recent declines in broadleaf-dominated, early-seral forest globally as a function of intensive forest management and/or fire suppression have raised concern about the viability of populations dependent on such forest types. However, quantitative information about the strength and direction of species associations with broadleaf cover at landscape scales are rare. Uncovering such habitat relationships is essential for understanding the demography of species and in developing sound conservation strategies. It is particularly important to detect points in habitat reduction where rates of population decline may accelerate or the likelihood of species occurrence drops rapidly (i.e., thresholds). Here, we use a large avian point-count data set (N = 4375) from southwestern and northwestern Oregon along with segmented logistic regression to test for thresholds in forest bird occurrence as a function of broadleaf forest and early-seral broadleaf forest at local (150-m radius) and landscape (500–2000-m radius) scales. All 12 bird species examined showed positive responses to either broadleaf forest in general, and/or early-seral broadleaf forest. However, regional variation in species response to these conditions was high. We found considerable evidence for landscape thresholds in bird species occurrence as a function of broadleaf cover; threshold models received substantially greater support than linear models for eight of 12 species. Landscape thresholds in broadleaf forest ranged broadly from 1.35% to 24.55% mean canopy cover. Early-seral broadleaf thresholds tended to be much lower (0.22–1.87%). We found a strong negative relationship between the strength of species association with early-seral broadleaf forest and 42-year bird population trends; species most associated with this forest type have declined at the greatest rates. Taken together, these results provide the first support for the hypothesis that reductions in broadleaf-dominated early-seral forest due to succession and intensive forest management have led to population declines of constituent species in the Pacific northwestern United States. Forest management treatments that maintain or restore even small amounts of broadleaf vegetation could mitigate further declines.

Impact of MenAfriVac in nine countries of the African meningitis belt, 2010-15: an analysis of surveillance data.

PubMed

Trotter, Caroline L; Lingani, Clément; Fernandez, Katya; Cooper, Laura V; Bita, André; Tevi-Benissan, Carol; Ronveaux, Olivier; Préziosi, Marie-Pierre; Stuart, James M

2017-08-01

In preparation for the introduction of MenAfriVac, a meningococcal group A conjugate vaccine developed for the African meningitis belt, an enhanced meningitis surveillance network was established. We analysed surveillance data on suspected and confirmed cases of meningitis to quantify vaccine impact. We compiled and analysed surveillance data for nine countries in the meningitis belt (Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, and Togo) collected and curated by the WHO Inter-country Support Team between 2005 and 2015. The incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of suspected and confirmed cases in vaccinated and unvaccinated populations were estimated with negative binomial regression models. The relative risk of districts reaching the epidemic threshold of ten per 100 000 per week was estimated according to district vaccination status. The incidence of suspected meningitis cases declined by 57% (95% CI 55-59) in vaccinated compared with unvaccinated populations, with some heterogeneity observed by country. We observed a similar 59% decline in the risk of a district reaching the epidemic threshold. In fully vaccinated populations, the incidence of confirmed group A disease was reduced by more than 99%. The IRR for non-A serogroups was higher after completion of MenAfriVac campaigns (IRR 2·76, 95% CI 1·21-6·30). MenAfriVac introduction has led to substantial reductions in the incidence of suspected meningitis and epidemic risk, and a substantial effect on confirmed group A meningococcal meningitis. It is important to continue strengthening surveillance to monitor vaccine performance and remain vigilant against threats from other meningococcal serogroups and other pathogens. World Health Organization. Copyright © 2017 World Health Organization. Published by Elsevier Ltd/Inc/BV. All rights reserved. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Potential future impact of a partially effective HIV vaccine in a southern African setting.

PubMed

Phillips, Andrew N; Cambiano, Valentina; Nakagawa, Fumiyo; Ford, Deborah; Lundgren, Jens D; Roset-Bahmanyar, Edith; Roman, François; Van Effelterre, Thierry

2014-01-01

It is important for public health and within the HIV vaccine development field to understand the potential population level impact of an HIV vaccine of partial efficacy--both in preventing infection and in reducing viral load in vaccinated individuals who become infected--in the context of a realistic future implementation scenario in resource limited settings. An individual level model of HIV transmission, progression and the effect of antiretroviral therapy was used to predict the outcome to 2060 of introduction in 2025 of a partially effective vaccine with various combinations of efficacy characteristics, in the context of continued ART roll-out in southern Africa. In the context of our base case epidemic (in 2015 HIV prevalence 28% and incidence 1.7 per 100 person years), a vaccine with only 30% preventative efficacy could make a substantial difference in the rate with which HIV incidence declines; the impact on incidence in relative terms is projected to increase over time, with a projected 67% lower HIV incidence in 2060 compared with no vaccine introduction. The projected mean decline in the general adult population death rate 2040-2060 is 11%. A vaccine with no prevention efficacy but which reduces viral load by 1 log is predicted to result in a modest (14%) reduction in HIV incidence and an 8% reduction in death rate in the general adult population (mean 2040-2060). These effects were broadly similar in multivariable uncertainty analysis. Introduction of a partially effective preventive HIV vaccine would make a substantial long-term impact on HIV epidemics in southern Africa, in addition to the effects of ART. Development of an HIV vaccine, even of relatively low apparent efficacy at the individual level, remains a critical global public health goal.

Temporal trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, bone mineral density, and fracture rates: a population-based historical cohort study.

PubMed

Leslie, William D; Lix, Lisa M; Yogendran, Marina S; Morin, Suzanne N; Metge, Colleen J; Majumdar, Sumit R

2014-04-01

Diverging international trends in fracture rates have been observed, with most reports showing that fracture rates have stabilized or decreased in North American and many European populations. We studied two complementary population-based historical cohorts from the Province of Manitoba, Canada (1996-2006) to determine whether declining osteoporotic fracture rates in Canada are attributable to trends in obesity, osteoporosis treatment, or bone mineral density (BMD). The Population Fracture Registry included women aged 50 years and older with major osteoporotic fractures, and was used to assess impact of changes in osteoporosis treatment. The BMD Registry included all women aged 50 years and older undergoing BMD tests, and was used to assess impact of changes in obesity and BMD. Model-based estimates of temporal changes in fracture rates (Fracture Registry) were calculated. Temporal changes in obesity and BMD and their association with fracture rates (BMD Registry) were estimated. In the Fracture Registry (n=27,341), fracture rates declined 1.6% per year (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3% to 2.0%). Although osteoporosis treatment increased from 5.6% to 17.4%, the decline in fractures was independent of osteoporosis treatment. In the BMD Registry (n=36,587), obesity increased from 12.7% to 27.4%. Femoral neck BMD increased 0.52% per year and lumbar spine BMD increased 0.32% per year after covariate adjustment (p<0.001). Major osteoporotic fracture rates decreased in models that did not include femoral neck BMD (fully adjusted annual change -1.8%; 95% CI, -2.9 to -0.5), but adjusting for femoral neck BMD accounted for the observed reduction (annual change -0.5%; 95% CI, -1.8 to +1.0). In summary, major osteoporotic fracture rates declined substantially and linearly from 1996 to 2006, and this was explained by improvements in BMD rather than greater rates of obesity or osteoporosis treatment. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji

PubMed Central

Linhart, Christine; Tukana, Isimeli; Lin, Sophia; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen; Vatucawaqa, Penina; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

2017-01-01

Abstract Objectives To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25–64 years. Methods Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking <20 or ≥20 tobacco products (cigarettes/cigars/pipes) a day. Trends were examined using spline analyses. Results Over 1980–2011 the prevalence of reported daily tobacco smoking decreased significantly in both sexes and ethnicities, with the greatest decline during 1980–2000. Declines were from 81.7% to 27.0% in i-Taukei men; 55.3% to 26.3% in Indian men; 48.1% to 9.5% in i-Taukei women; and 13.8% to 1.3% in Indian women (p < .0001). Declines were consistent across all age groups in men, while there were greater declines among older age groups in women; and greater declines from higher prevalences in rural compared to urban areas in both sexes and ethnicities. Smoking ≥20 tobacco products per day declined significantly in i-Taukei men from 8.0% to 1.9% (p < .0001); there were also declines in Indian men (4.6% to 2.0%) and i-Taukei women (2.6% to 0.6%), but these were not statistically significant; and Indian women remained <0.2% throughout the period. Conclusions Significant declines in daily tobacco smoking have occurred in Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. Implications This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific Island region. This is the first study to show evidence of substantial declines over several decades in a cardiovascular disease risk factor in a Pacific Island country, and provides important evidence for further research into the interventions and events which may have facilitated this decline. PMID:27807124

Fundamental population-productivity relationships can be modified through density-dependent feedbacks of life-history evolution.

PubMed

Kuparinen, Anna; Stenseth, Nils Christian; Hutchings, Jeffrey A

2014-12-01

The evolution of life histories over contemporary time scales will almost certainly affect population demography. One important pathway for such eco-evolutionary interactions is the density-dependent regulation of population dynamics. Here, we investigate how fisheries-induced evolution (FIE) might alter density-dependent population-productivity relationships. To this end, we simulate the eco-evolutionary dynamics of an Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) population under fishing, followed by a period of recovery in the absence of fishing. FIE is associated with increases in juvenile production, the ratio of juveniles to mature population biomass, and the ratio of the mature population biomass relative to the total population biomass. In contrast, net reproductive rate (R 0 ) and per capita population growth rate (r) decline concomitantly with evolution. Our findings suggest that FIE can substantially modify the fundamental population-productivity relationships that underlie density-dependent population regulation and that form the primary population-dynamical basis for fisheries stock-assessment projections. From a conservation and fisheries-rebuilding perspective, we find that FIE reduces R 0 and r, the two fundamental correlates of population recovery ability and inversely extinction probability.

Effect of HSV-2 on population-level trends in HIV incidence in Uganda between 1990 and 2007

PubMed Central

Biraro, Samuel; Kamali, Anatoli; White, Richard; Karabarinde, Alex; Nsiimire Ssendagala, Juliet; Grosskurth, Heiner; Weiss, Helen A

2013-01-01

Objective To assess the long-term effects of population-level HSV-2 infection on HIV incidence. Methods Data from a population-based cohort in south-western Uganda were used to estimate HIV incidence from 1990 to 2007. Stored blood samples were tested for HSV-2, and the impact of HSV-2 prevalence and incidence on HIV incidence was estimated by calculating population attributable fractions (PAFs). The association between population-level annual HIV incidence and annual HSV-2 incidence/prevalence was analysed using linear regression. Results HIV incidence declined over time among men, from 8.72/1000 person-years (pyr) in 1990 to 4.85/1000 pyr in 2007 (P-trend <0.001). In contrast, there was no decline in HIV incidence among women (4.86/1000 pyr in 1990 to 6.74/1000 pyr in 2007, P-trend = 0.18). PAFs of incident HIV attributable to HSV-2 were high (60% in males; 70% in females). There was no evidence of an association between long-term trends in HIV incidence and HSV-2 prevalence or incidence. Conclusion Assuming a causal relationship, a substantial proportion of new HIV infections in this population are attributable to HSV-2. The study did not find an effect of HSV-2 prevalence/incidence on trends in HIV incidence. HIV incidence did not vary much during the study period. This may partly explain the lack of association. PMID:24016032

Meta-Analysis of Relationships between Human Offtake, Total Mortality and Population Dynamics of Gray Wolves (Canis lupus)

PubMed Central

Creel, Scott; Rotella, Jay J.

2010-01-01

Following the growth and geographic expansion of wolf (Canis lupus) populations reintroduced to Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho in 1995–1996, Rocky Mountain wolves were removed from the endangered species list in May 2009. Idaho and Montana immediately established hunting seasons with quotas equaling 20% of the regional wolf population. Combining hunting with predator control, 37.1% of Montana and Idaho wolves were killed in the year of delisting. Hunting and predator control are well-established methods to broaden societal acceptance of large carnivores, but it is unprecedented for a species to move so rapidly from protection under the Endangered Species Act to heavy direct harvest, and it is important to use all available data to assess the likely consequences of these changes in policy. For wolves, it is widely argued that human offtake has little effect on total mortality rates, so that a harvest of 28–50% per year can be sustained. Using previously published data from 21 North American wolf populations, we related total annual mortality and population growth to annual human offtake. Contrary to current conventional wisdom, there was a strong association between human offtake and total mortality rates across North American wolf populations. Human offtake was associated with a strongly additive or super-additive increase in total mortality. Population growth declined as human offtake increased, even at low rates of offtake. Finally, wolf populations declined with harvests substantially lower than the thresholds identified in current state and federal policies. These results should help to inform management of Rocky Mountain wolves. PMID:20927363

Meta-analysis of relationships between human offtake, total mortality and population dynamics of gray wolves (Canis lupus).

PubMed

Creel, Scott; Rotella, Jay J

2010-09-29

Following the growth and geographic expansion of wolf (Canis lupus) populations reintroduced to Yellowstone National Park and central Idaho in 1995-1996, Rocky Mountain wolves were removed from the endangered species list in May 2009. Idaho and Montana immediately established hunting seasons with quotas equaling 20% of the regional wolf population. Combining hunting with predator control, 37.1% of Montana and Idaho wolves were killed in the year of delisting. Hunting and predator control are well-established methods to broaden societal acceptance of large carnivores, but it is unprecedented for a species to move so rapidly from protection under the Endangered Species Act to heavy direct harvest, and it is important to use all available data to assess the likely consequences of these changes in policy. For wolves, it is widely argued that human offtake has little effect on total mortality rates, so that a harvest of 28-50% per year can be sustained. Using previously published data from 21 North American wolf populations, we related total annual mortality and population growth to annual human offtake. Contrary to current conventional wisdom, there was a strong association between human offtake and total mortality rates across North American wolf populations. Human offtake was associated with a strongly additive or super-additive increase in total mortality. Population growth declined as human offtake increased, even at low rates of offtake. Finally, wolf populations declined with harvests substantially lower than the thresholds identified in current state and federal policies. These results should help to inform management of Rocky Mountain wolves.

Monitoring low density avian populations: An example using Mountain Plovers

USGS Publications Warehouse

Dreitz, V.J.; Lukacs, P.M.; Knopf, F.L.

2006-01-01

Declines in avian populations highlight a need for rigorous, broad-scale monitoring programs to document trends in avian populations that occur in low densities across expansive landscapes. Accounting for the spatial variation and variation in detection probability inherent to monitoring programs is thought to be effort-intensive and time-consuming. We determined the feasibility of the analytical method developed by Royle and Nichols (2003), which uses presence-absence (detection-non-detection) field data, to estimate abundance of Mountain Plovers (Charadrius montanus) per sampling unit in agricultural fields, grassland, and prairie dog habitat in eastern Colorado. Field methods were easy to implement and results suggest that the analytical method provides valuable insight into population patterning among habitats. Mountain Plover abundance was highest in prairie dog habitat, slightly lower in agricultural fields, and substantially lower in grassland. These results provided valuable insight to focus future research into Mountain Plover ecology and conservation. ?? The Cooper Ornithological Society 2006.

Declining physical activity and the socio-cultural context of the geography of industrial restructuring: a novel conceptual framework.

PubMed

Rind, Esther; Jones, Andy

2014-05-01

At the population level, the prevalence of physical activity has declined considerably in many developed countries in recent decades. There is some evidence that areas exhibiting the lowest activity levels are those which have undergone a particularly strong transition away from employment in physically demanding occupations. We propose that processes of deindustrialization may be causally linked to unexplained geographical disparities in levels of physical activity. While the sociocultural correlates of physical activity have been well studied, and prior conceptual frameworks have been developed to explain more general patterns of activity, none have explicitly attempted to identify the components of industrial change that may impact physical activity. In this work we review the current literature on sociocultural correlates of health behaviors before using a case study centered on the United Kingdom to present a novel framework that links industrial change to declining levels of physical activity. We developed a comprehensive model linking sociocultural correlates of physical activity to processes associated with industrial restructuring and discuss implication for policy and practice. A better understanding of sociocultural processes may help to ameliorate adverse health consequences of employment decline in communities that have experienced substantial losses of manual employment.

Perceived decline in intimate partner violence against women in Bangladesh: qualitative evidence.

PubMed

Schuler, Sidney Ruth; Lenzi, Rachel; Nazneen, Sohela; Bates, Lisa M

2013-09-01

The Bangladesh government, nongovernmental organizations, donors, and advocacy groups have attempted various interventions to promote gender equality and reduce intimate partner violence (IPV) against women, but rigorous evaluations of these interventions are rare and few published studies have yet to show that any of them has had a substantial impact. This study presents qualitative evidence from four villages in central and northern Bangladesh drawn from 11 group discussions (6 with men, 5 with women), 16 open-ended interviews with men, and 62 women's life history narratives. The findings strongly suggest that IPV is declining in these villages as women's economic roles expand and they gain a stronger sense of their rights. Periodic surveys are recommended to measure trends in the incidence of IPV in settings where transitions in gender systems are under way. © 2013 The Population Council, Inc.

Thailand's reproductive revolution.

PubMed

Knodel, J

1987-01-01

Thailand has achieved a remarkable population revolution in the past 15 years, resulting in a fertility decline of 44%, the 3rd greatest decline of the major developing countries. Thailand is quite distinct from either China or South Korea, the leaders in fertility decline. It has neither China's authoritarian power system to enforce population control nor the highly developed, Westernized outlook of South Korea. Instead it achieved its astounding fertility drop through a noncoercive family planning program operating within a context of rapid social change and a cultural setting. Thailand's drop in population growth has touched almost all segments of Thai society. The preferred number of children among couples married less than 5 years has dropped in both rural and urban families at almost exactly the same rate, from about 3.2 in 1969 to 2.3 in 1984. Religious groups represent the only substantial difference in family size preference; Moslem women married less than 5 years stated a desired average of 3.1 children versus 2.3 for Buddhist women. The direct case of the fertility drop is a national increase in contraceptive use. In 1984, 65% of Thai women reported using contraception. The Thai population, however, was ripe for using contraception when it became available due to 1) mass media creating a desire for consumer goods, 2) the increased costs of education to parents, 3) the willingness of parents to trade off "parent repayment" from many children for a few quality children, 4) couples' autonomy in fertility decision making, 5) the high status of women in Thailand, and 6) the fact that Buddhism poses no barriers to contraception. Current trends show no immediate sign of change.

Large-scale impacts of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) on intertidal sea stars and implications for recovery

PubMed Central

Burnaford, Jennifer L.; Ambrose, Richard F.; Antrim, Liam; Bohlmann, Heath; Blanchette, Carol A.; Engle, John M.; Fradkin, Steven C.; Gaddam, Rani; Harley, Christopher D. G.; Miner, Benjamin G.; Murray, Steven N.; Smith, Jayson R.; Whitaker, Stephen G.; Raimondi, Peter T.

2018-01-01

Disease outbreaks can have substantial impacts on wild populations, but the often patchy or anecdotal evidence of these impacts impedes our ability to understand outbreak dynamics. Recently however, a severe disease outbreak occurred in a group of very well-studied organisms–sea stars along the west coast of North America. We analyzed nearly two decades of data from a coordinated monitoring effort at 88 sites ranging from southern British Columbia to San Diego, California along with 2 sites near Sitka, Alaska to better understand the effects of sea star wasting disease (SSWD) on the keystone intertidal predator, Pisaster ochraceus. Quantitative surveys revealed unprecedented declines of P. ochraceus in 2014 and 2015 across nearly the entire geographic range of the species. The intensity of the impact of SSWD was not uniform across the affected area, with proportionally greater population declines in the southern regions relative to the north. The degree of population decline was unrelated to pre-outbreak P. ochraceus density, although these factors have been linked in other well-documented disease events. While elevated seawater temperatures were not broadly linked to the initial emergence of SSWD, anomalously high seawater temperatures in 2014 and 2015 might have exacerbated the disease’s impact. Both before and after the onset of the SSWD outbreak, we documented higher recruitment of P. ochraceus in the north than in the south, and while some juveniles are surviving (as evidenced by transition of recruitment pulses to larger size classes), post-SSWD survivorship is lower than during pre-SSWD periods. In hindsight, our data suggest that the SSWD event defied prediction based on two factors found to be important in other marine disease events, sea water temperature and population density, and illustrate the importance of surveillance of natural populations as one element of an integrated approach to marine disease ecology. Low levels of SSWD-symptomatic sea stars are still present throughout the impacted range, thus the outlook for population recovery is uncertain. PMID:29558484

On the importance of controlling for effort in analysis of count survey data: Modeling population change from Christmas Bird Count data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Link, W.A.; Sauer, J.R.; Helbig, Andreas J.; Flade, Martin

1999-01-01

Count survey data are commonly used for estimating temporal and spatial patterns of population change. Since count surveys are not censuses, counts can be influenced by 'nuisance factors' related to the probability of detecting animals but unrelated to the actual population size. The effects of systematic changes in these factors can be confounded with patterns of population change. Thus, valid analysis of count survey data requires the identification of nuisance factors and flexible models for their effects. We illustrate using data from the Christmas Bird Count (CBC), a midwinter survey of bird populations in North America. CBC survey effort has substantially increased in recent years, suggesting that unadjusted counts may overstate population growth (or understate declines). We describe a flexible family of models for the effect of effort, that includes models in which increasing effort leads to diminishing returns in terms of the number of birds counted.

Long-term effects of wildfire on greater sage-grouse - integrating population and ecosystem concepts for management in the Great Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Ricca, Mark A.; Prochazka, Brian G.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Brooks, Matthew L.; Casazza, Michael L.

2015-09-10

Greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; hereinafter, sage-grouse) are a sagebrush obligate species that has declined concomitantly with the loss and fragmentation of sagebrush ecosystems across most of its geographical range. The species currently is listed as a candidate for federal protection under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). Increasing wildfire frequency and changing climate frequently are identified as two environmental drivers that contribute to the decline of sage-grouse populations, yet few studies have rigorously quantified their effects on sage-grouse populations across broad spatial scales and long time periods. To help inform a threat assessment within the Great Basin for listing sage-grouse in 2015 under the ESA, we conducted an extensive analysis of wildfire and climatic effects on sage-grouse population growth derived from 30 years of lek-count data collected across the hydrographic Great Basin of Western North America. Annual (1984–2013) patterns of wildfire were derived from an extensive dataset of remotely sensed 30-meter imagery and precipitation derived from locally downscaled spatially explicit data. In the sagebrush ecosystem, underlying soil conditions also contribute strongly to variation in resilience to disturbance and resistance to plant community changes (R&R). Thus, we developed predictions from models of post-wildfire recovery and chronic effects of wildfire based on three spatially explicit R&R classes derived from soil moisture and temperature regimes. We found evidence of an interaction between the effects of wildfire (chronically affected burned area within 5 kilometers of a lek) and climatic conditions (spring through fall precipitation) after accounting for a consistent density-dependent effect. Specifically, burned areas near leks nullifies population growth that normally follows years with relatively high precipitation. In models, this effect results in long-term population declines for sage-grouse despite cyclic periods of high precipitation. Based on 30-year projections of burn and recovery rates, our population model predicted steady and substantial long-term declines in population size across the Great Basin. Further, example management scenarios that may help offset adverse wildfire effects are provided by models of varying levels of fire suppression and post-wildfire restoration that focus on areas especially important to sage-grouse populations. These models illustrate how sage-grouse population persistence likely will be compromised as sagebrush ecosystems and sage-grouse habitat are degraded by wildfire, especially in a warmer and drier climate, and by invasion of annual grasses that can increase wildfire frequency and size in the Great Basin.

Weekend sun protection and sunburn in Australia trends (1987-2002) and association with SunSmart television advertising.

PubMed

Dobbinson, Suzanne J; Wakefield, Melanie A; Jamsen, Kris M; Herd, Natalie L; Spittal, Matthew J; Lipscomb, John E; Hill, David J

2008-02-01

The Australian state of Victoria has run a population-based skin cancer prevention program called SunSmart since 1988, incorporating substantial public education efforts and environmental change strategies. Trends over 15 years in behavioral risk factors for skin cancer were examined in a population exposed to the SunSmart program. Whether outcomes were associated with extent of SunSmart television advertising was then assessed. In nine cross-sectional surveys from 1987 to 2002, 11,589 adults were interviewed by telephone about their sun exposure and sun protection during outdoor activities on summer weekends. Analyses completed in 2007 adjusted for ambient temperature and ultraviolet radiation. Sun protection and sunburn show substantial general improvement over time, but have stalled in recent years. Use of hats and sunscreens significantly increased over time and peaked during the mid to late 1990s, compared with the pre-SunSmart baseline. The mean proportion of unprotected skin was reduced and was lowest in the summer of 1997-1998. Summer sunburn incidence declined over time and was 9.1% in 2002, almost half baseline (OR=0.53; 95% CI=0.39-0.73). Higher exposure to SunSmart advertising in the 4 weeks before the interview increased: (1) preference for no tan, (2) hat and sunscreen use, and (3) proportion of body surface protected from the sun. The general improvement in sun-protective behaviors over time highlight that a population's sun-protective behaviors are amenable to change. Population-based prevention programs incorporating substantial television advertising campaigns into the mix of strategies may be highly effective in improving a population's sun-protective behaviors.

Spatial and temporal patterns of neutral and adaptive genetic variation in the endangered African wild dog (Lycaon pictus).

PubMed

Marsden, Clare D; Woodroffe, Rosie; Mills, Michael G L; McNutt, J Weldon; Creel, Scott; Groom, Rosemary; Emmanuel, Masenga; Cleaveland, Sarah; Kat, Pieter; Rasmussen, Gregory S A; Ginsberg, Joshua; Lines, Robin; André, Jean-Marc; Begg, Colleen; Wayne, Robert K; Mable, Barbara K

2012-03-01

Deciphering patterns of genetic variation within a species is essential for understanding population structure, local adaptation and differences in diversity between populations. Whilst neutrally evolving genetic markers can be used to elucidate demographic processes and genetic structure, they are not subject to selection and therefore are not informative about patterns of adaptive variation. As such, assessments of pertinent adaptive loci, such as the immunity genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), are increasingly being incorporated into genetic studies. In this study, we combined neutral (microsatellite, mtDNA) and adaptive (MHC class II DLA-DRB1 locus) markers to elucidate the factors influencing patterns of genetic variation in the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus); an endangered canid that has suffered extensive declines in distribution and abundance. Our genetic analyses found all extant wild dog populations to be relatively small (N(e)  < 30). Furthermore, through coalescent modelling, we detected a genetic signature of a recent and substantial demographic decline, which correlates with human expansion, but contrasts with findings in some other African mammals. We found strong structuring of wild dog populations, indicating the negative influence of extensive habitat fragmentation and loss of gene flow between habitat patches. Across populations, we found that the spatial and temporal structure of microsatellite diversity and MHC diversity were correlated and strongly influenced by demographic stability and population size, indicating the effects of genetic drift in these small populations. Despite this correlation, we detected signatures of selection at the MHC, implying that selection has not been completely overwhelmed by genetic drift. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

A theoretical quantitative genetic study of negative ecological interactions and extinction times in changing environments.

PubMed

Jones, Adam G

2008-04-25

Rapid human-induced changes in the environment at local, regional and global scales appear to be contributing to population declines and extinctions, resulting in an unprecedented biodiversity crisis. Although in the short term populations can respond ecologically to environmental alterations, in the face of persistent change populations must evolve or become extinct. Existing models of evolution and extinction in changing environments focus only on single species, even though the dynamics of extinction almost certainly depend upon the nature of species interactions. Here, I use a model of quantitative trait evolution in a two-species community to show that negative ecological interactions, such as predation and competition, can produce unexpected results regarding time to extinction. Under some circumstances, negative interactions can be expected to hasten the extinction of species declining in numbers. However, under other circumstances, negative interactions can actually increase times to extinction. This effect occurs across a wide range of parameter values and can be substantial, in some cases allowing a population to persist for 40 percent longer than it would in the absence of the species interaction. This theoretical study indicates that negative species interactions can have unexpected positive effects on times to extinction. Consequently, detailed studies of selection and demographics will be necessary to predict the consequences of species interactions in changing environments for any particular ecological community.

Population and development in Asia and the Pacific: a demographic analysis.

PubMed

Debavalya, N

1982-06-01

Close examinations of population trends shows that the new trends reflect demographic changes that have occurred in many developing countries in Asia and the Pacific. In East Asia the population growth rate has declined rather rapidly from 1.94% in 1960-65 to 1.38% in 1975-80 and 1.24% in 1980-85. Since nearly 85% of this region's population is accounted for by China, demographic trends there virtually dictate the trends for the region as a whole. The available data suggest that the growth rate in China declined from 2.02% in 1970-75 to 1.4% in 1975-80 and is expected to reach 1.27% during 1980-85. The sharp decline in China's population growth rate is expected to continue. It is anticipated that the population of East Asia will increase to 1.4 billion by the year 2000. In addition, the growth rate has declined significantly in Japan and the Republic of Korea. The growth rate is declining in Eastern South and Middle South Asia as well. Longterm declines have brought growth rates down in Sri Lanka and Singapore. More recently, the rate of growth also has begun to fall in India, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, while it remains generally at high levels in Bangladesh, Nepal, and Pakistan. In the Oceania region, 79% of which is made up of Australia and New Zealand, the growth rate is also steadily decreasing. Despite the decrease in the growth rate of Asia and the Pacific, especially during 1980-2000, in absolute terms its growth will be the largest in the world during these 29 years; 908 million out of 1687 million of the total growth. Asia and the Pacific will contribute more than 45 million people a year during the final 20 years of this century. For the world as a whole, the new estimates and projections indicate a slow but steady decline of the crude birthrate from 36.3/1000 in 1950-55 to 28.5 in 1975-80, then to 23.9 in 1995-2000, and finally to 17.9 in 2020-2025. China had a birthrate estimated at about 21 in 1975-80; and India and Indonesia had estimated rates in the range of 33-35. Japan, Australia, and New Zealand had estimated birthrates in the range of 15-18 in 1975-80. As was the case with fertility, the largest gains in mortality reduction have accrued among the less developed regions. In Asia mortality declines have slowed during recent years. Some substantial shifts in patterns of international migration have occurred in the flow of workers into the oil rich countries of Middle and Western South Asia. Migrants come closely from countries within the region, and there are growing numbers from India, Pakistan, the Philippines, Thailand, and elsewhere. The number of people living in urban centers in Asia is increasing very rapidly. Meeting basic needs requires a dual target for each less developed country--an increase in gross national product per capita and a redistribution of income.

Criminal justice outcomes for cannabis use offences in New Zealand, 1991-2008.

PubMed

Wilkins, Chris; Sweetsur, Paul

2012-11-01

There have been no changes to the statutory penalties for cannabis use in New Zealand for over 35 years and this has attracted some criticism. However, statutory penalties often provide a poor picture of the actual criminal justice outcomes for minor drug offending. To examine criminal justice outcomes for cannabis use offences in New Zealand over the past two decades. Rates of apprehension, prosecution, conviction and related criminal justice outcomes for the use of cannabis in New Zealand (per 100,000 population) were calculated for 1991-2008. The same measures were calculated (per 1000 last year cannabis users) for 1998, 2001, 2003 and 2006. Trends were tested for using logistic regression with year predicting each measure outcome and with chi-square tests. The number of police apprehensions for cannabis use per year (per 100,000 population) declined from 468 in 1994 to 247 in 2008. The number of apprehensions for cannabis use per year (per 1000 cannabis users) also declined from 36 in 1998 to 21 in 2006. There were similar declines in prosecutions and convictions for cannabis use from 1991 to 2008. Those prosecuted for cannabis use in 2000-2008 were less likely than those prosecuted in 1991-1999 to be convicted and were more likely to be diverted away from the courts, 'discharged without conviction' and 'convicted and discharged'. There has been a substantial decline in arrests for cannabis use in New Zealand over the past decade and this lead to similar declines in prosecutions and convictions for cannabis use. The decline in convictions for cannabis use was further assisted by the expansion of police diversion to include cannabis use offences. Our findings underline the importance of examining the implementation of law, as well as statutory penalties, when characterising a country's criminal justice approach to minor drug offending. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ethics in Public Health Research

PubMed Central

Kunitz, Stephen J.

2008-01-01

Mortality rates for American Indians (including Alaska Natives) declined for much of the 20th century, but data published by the Indian Health Service indicate that since the mid-1980s, age-adjusted deaths for this population have increased both in absolute terms and compared with rates for the White American population. This increase appears to be primarily because of the direct and indirect effects of type 2 diabetes. Despite increasing appropriations for the Special Diabetes Program for Indians, per capita expenditures for Indian health, including third-party reimbursements, remain substantially lower than those for other Americans and, when adjusted for inflation, have been essentially unchanged since the early 1990s. I argue that inadequate funding for health services has contributed significantly to the increased death rate. PMID:18235064

Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor.

PubMed

Kroll, Andrew J; Jones, Jay E; Stringer, Angela B; Meekins, Douglas J

2016-01-01

Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), California, USA, 1990-2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia), an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states) and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33), in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07), in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17). Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06). However, we cannot exclude small-to-moderate declines or increases in paired territory numbers due to uncertainty in our estimates. Collectively, we conclude spotted owl pair populations on this landscape managed for commercial timber production appear to be more stable and do not show sharp year-over-year declines seen in both managed and unmanaged landscapes with substantial barred owl colonization and persistence. Continued monitoring of reproductive territories can determine whether recent declines continue or whether trends reverse as they have on four previous occasions. Experimental investigations to evaluate changes to spotted owl occupancy dynamics when barred owl populations are reduced or removed entirely can confirm the generality of this conclusion.

Does White Clover (Trifolium repens) Abundance in Temperate Pastures Determine Sitona obsoletus (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) Larval Populations?

PubMed

McNeill, Mark R; van Koten, Chikako; Cave, Vanessa M; Chapman, David; Hodgson, Hamish

2016-01-01

To determine if host plant abundance determined the size of clover root weevil (CRW) Sitona obsoletus larval populations, a study was conducted over 4 years in plots sown in ryegrass ( Lolium perenne ) (cv. Nui) sown at either 6 or 30 kg/ha and white clover ( Trifolium repens ) sown at a uniform rate of 8 kg/ha. This provided a range of % white clover content to investigate CRW population establishment and impacts on white clover survival. Larval sampling was carried out in spring (October) when larval densities are near their spring peak at Lincoln (Canterbury, New Zealand) with % clover measured in autumn (April) and spring (September) of each year. Overall, mean larval densities measured in spring 2012-2015 were 310, 38, 59, and 31 larvae m -2 , respectively. There was a significant decline in larval populations between 2012 and 2013, but spring populations were relatively uniform thereafter. The mean % white clover measured in autumns of 2012 to 2015 was 17, 10, 3, and 11%, respectively. In comparison, mean spring % white clover from 2012 to 2015, averaged c. 5% each year. Analysis relating spring (October) larval populations to % white clover measured in each plot in autumn (April) found the 2012 larval population to be statistically significantly larger in the ryegrass 6 kg/ha plots than 30 kg/ha plots. Thereafter, sowing rate had no significant effect on larval populations. From 2013 to 2015, spring larval populations had a negative relationship with the previous autumn % white clover with the relationship highly significant for the 2014 data. When CRW larval populations in spring 2013 to 2015 were predicted from the 2013 to 2015 autumn % white clover, respectively, based on their positive relationship in 2012, the predicted densities were substantially larger than those observed. Conversely, when 2015 spring larval data and % clover was regressed against 2012-2014 larval populations, observed densities tended to be higher than predicted, but the numbers came closer to predicted for the 2013 and 2014 populations. These differences are attributed to a CRW population decline that was not accounted by % white clover changes, the CRW decline most likely due to biological control by the Braconid endoparasitoid Microctonus aethiopoides , which showed incremental increases in parasitism between 2012 and 2015, which in 2015 averaged 93%.

Limits to captive breeding of mammals in zoos.

PubMed

Alroy, John

2015-06-01

Captive breeding of mammals in zoos is the last hope for many of the best-known endangered species and has succeeded in saving some from certain extinction. However, the number of managed species selected is relatively small and focused on large-bodied, charismatic mammals that are not necessarily under strong threat and not always good candidates for reintroduction into the wild. Two interrelated and more fundamental questions go unanswered: have the major breeding programs succeeded at the basic level of maintaining and expanding populations, and is there room to expand them? I used published counts of births and deaths from 1970 to 2011 to quantify rates of growth of 118 captive-bred mammalian populations. These rates did not vary with body mass, contrary to strong predictions made in the ecological literature. Most of the larger managed mammalian populations expanded consistently and very few programs failed. However, growth rates have declined dramatically. The decline was predicted by changes in the ratio of the number of individuals within programs to the number of mammal populations held in major zoos. Rates decreased as the ratio of individuals in programs to populations increased. In other words, most of the programs that could exist already do exist. It therefore appears that debates over the general need for captive-breeding programs and the best selection of species are moot. Only a concerted effort could create room to manage a substantially larger number of endangered mammals. © 2015, Society for Conservation Biology.

Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krushelnycky, Paul D.; Loope, Lloyd L.; Giambelluca, Thomas W.; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R.; Taylor, Andrew D.; Robichaux, Robert H.

2013-01-01

Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai‘i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1–2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses.

Meaningful improvement in gait speed in hip fracture recovery.

PubMed

Alley, Dawn E; Hicks, Gregory E; Shardell, Michelle; Hawkes, William; Miller, Ram; Craik, Rebecca L; Mangione, Kathleen K; Orwig, Denise; Hochberg, Marc; Resnick, Barbara; Magaziner, Jay

2011-09-01

To estimate meaningful improvements in gait speed observed during recovery from hip fracture and to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of gait speed changes in detecting change in self-reported mobility. Secondary longitudinal data analysis from two randomized controlled trials Twelve hospitals in the Baltimore, Maryland, area. Two hundred seventeen women admitted with hip fracture. Usual gait speed and self-reported mobility (ability to walk 1 block and climb 1 flight of stairs) measured 2 and 12 months after fracture. Effect size-based estimates of meaningful differences were 0.03 for small differences and 0.09 for substantial differences. Depending on the anchor (stairs vs walking) and method (mean difference vs regression), anchor-based estimates ranged from 0.10 to 0.17 m/s for small meaningful improvements and 0.17 to 0.26 m/s for substantial meaningful improvement. Optimal gait speed cutpoints yielded low sensitivity (0.39-0.62) and specificity (0.57-0.76) for improvements in self-reported mobility. Results from this sample of women recovering from hip fracture provide only limited support for the 0.10-m/s cut point for substantial meaningful change previously identified in community-dwelling older adults experiencing declines in walking abilities. Anchor-based estimates and cut points derived from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis suggest that greater improvements in gait speed may be required for substantial perceived mobility improvement in female hip fracture patients. Furthermore, gait speed change performed poorly in discriminating change in self-reported mobility. Estimates of meaningful change in gait speed may differ based on the direction of change (improvement vs decline) or between patient populations. © 2011, Copyright the Authors. Journal compilation © 2011, The American Geriatrics Society.

Meaningful Improvement in Gait Speed in Hip Fracture Recovery

PubMed Central

Alley, Dawn E.; Hicks, Gregory E.; Shardell, Michelle; Hawkes, William; Miller, Ram; Craik, Rebecca L.; Mangione, Kathleen K.; Orwig, Denise; Hochberg, Marc; Resnick, Barbara; Magaziner, Jay

2011-01-01

OBJECTIVES To estimate meaningful improvements in gait speed observed during recovery from hip fracture and to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of gait speed changes in detecting change in self-reported mobility. DESIGN Secondary longitudinal data analysis from two randomized controlled trials SETTING Twelve hospitals in the Baltimore, Maryland, area. PARTICIPANTS Two hundred seventeen women admitted with hip fracture. MEASUREMENTS Usual gait speed and self-reported mobility (ability to walk 1 block and climb 1 flight of stairs) measured 2 and 12 months after fracture. RESULTS Effect size–based estimates of meaningful differences were 0.03 for small differences and 0.09 for substantial differences. Depending on the anchor (stairs vs walking) and method (mean difference vs regression), anchor-based estimates ranged from 0.10 to 0.17 m/s for small meaningful improvements and 0.17 to 0.26 m/s for substantial meaningful improvement. Optimal gait speed cut-points yielded low sensitivity (0.39–0.62) and specificity (0.57–0.76) for improvements in self-reported mobility. CONCLUSION Results from this sample of women recovering from hip fracture provide only limited support for the 0.10-m/s cut point for substantial meaningful change previously identified in community-dwelling older adults experiencing declines in walking abilities. Anchor-based estimates and cut points derived from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis suggest that greater improvements in gait speed may be required for substantial perceived mobility improvement in female hip fracture patients. Furthermore, gait speed change performed poorly in discriminating change in self-reported mobility. Estimates of meaningful change in gait speed may differ based on the direction of change (improvement vs decline) or between patient populations. PMID:21883109

Stagnant neonatal mortality and persistent health inequality in middle-income countries: a case study of the Philippines.

PubMed

Kraft, Aleli D; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Hodge, Andrew

2013-01-01

The probability of survival through childhood continues to be unequal in middle-income countries. This study uses data from the Philippines to assess trends in the prevalence and distribution of child mortality and to evaluate the country's socioeconomic-related child health inequality. Using data from four Demographic and Health Surveys we estimated levels and trends of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality from 1990 to 2007. Mortality estimates at national and subnational levels were produced using both direct and indirect methods. Concentration indices were computed to measure child health inequality by wealth status. Multivariate regression analyses were used to assess the contribution of interventions and socioeconomic factors to wealth-related inequality. Despite substantial reductions in national under-five and infant mortality rates in the early 1990s, the rates of declines have slowed in recent years and neonatal mortality rates remain stubbornly high. Substantial variations across urban-rural, regional, and wealth equity-markers are evident, and suggest that the gaps between the best and worst performing sub-populations will either be maintained or widen in the future. Of the variables tested, recent wealth-related inequalities are found to be strongly associated with social factors (e.g. maternal education), regional location, and access to health services, such as facility-based delivery. The Philippines has achieved substantial progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4, but this success masks substantial inequalities and stagnating neonatal mortality trends. This analysis supports a focus on health interventions of high quality--that is, not just facility-based delivery, but delivery by trained staff at well-functioning facilities and supported by a strong referral system--to re-start the long term decline in neonatal mortality and to reduce persistent within-country inequalities in child health.

Mapping the Prevalence of Physical Inactivity in U.S. States, 1984-2015.

PubMed

An, Ruopeng; Xiang, Xiaoling; Yang, Yan; Yan, Hai

2016-01-01

Physical inactivity is a leading cause of morbidity, disability and premature mortality in the U.S. and worldwide. This study aimed to map the prevalence of physical inactivity across U.S. states over the past three decades, and estimate the over-time adjusted changes in the prevalence of physical inactivity in each state. Individual-level data (N = 6,701,954) were taken from the 1984-2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), an annually repeated cross-sectional survey of state-representative adult population. Prevalence of self-reported leisure-time physical inactivity was estimated by state and survey year, accounting for the BRFSS sampling design. Logistic regressions were performed to estimate the changes in the prevalence of physical inactivity over the study period for each state, adjusting for individual characteristics including sex, age, race/ethnicity, education, marital status, and employment status. The prevalence of leisure-time physical inactivity varied substantially across states and survey years. In general, the adjusted prevalence of physical inactivity gradually declined over the past three decades in a majority of states. However, a substantial proportion of American adults remain physically inactive. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, 45 had over a fifth of their adult population without any leisure-time physical activity, and 8 had over 30% without physical activity in 2015. Moreover, the adjusted prevalence of physical inactivity in several states (Arizona, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming) remained largely unchanged or even increased (Minnesota and Ohio) over the study period. Although the prevalence of physical inactivity declined over the past three decades in a majority of states, the rates remain substantially high and vary considerably across states. Closely monitoring and tracking physical activity level using the state physical activity maps can help guide policy and program development to promote physical activity and reduce the burden of chronic disease.

Mapping the Prevalence of Physical Inactivity in U.S. States, 1984-2015

PubMed Central

Xiang, Xiaoling; Yang, Yan; Yan, Hai

2016-01-01

Background Physical inactivity is a leading cause of morbidity, disability and premature mortality in the U.S. and worldwide. This study aimed to map the prevalence of physical inactivity across U.S. states over the past three decades, and estimate the over-time adjusted changes in the prevalence of physical inactivity in each state. Methods Individual-level data (N = 6,701,954) were taken from the 1984–2015 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS), an annually repeated cross-sectional survey of state-representative adult population. Prevalence of self-reported leisure-time physical inactivity was estimated by state and survey year, accounting for the BRFSS sampling design. Logistic regressions were performed to estimate the changes in the prevalence of physical inactivity over the study period for each state, adjusting for individual characteristics including sex, age, race/ethnicity, education, marital status, and employment status. Results The prevalence of leisure-time physical inactivity varied substantially across states and survey years. In general, the adjusted prevalence of physical inactivity gradually declined over the past three decades in a majority of states. However, a substantial proportion of American adults remain physically inactive. Among the 50 states and District of Columbia, 45 had over a fifth of their adult population without any leisure-time physical activity, and 8 had over 30% without physical activity in 2015. Moreover, the adjusted prevalence of physical inactivity in several states (Arizona, North Carolina, North Dakota, Utah, West Virginia, and Wyoming) remained largely unchanged or even increased (Minnesota and Ohio) over the study period. Conclusions Although the prevalence of physical inactivity declined over the past three decades in a majority of states, the rates remain substantially high and vary considerably across states. Closely monitoring and tracking physical activity level using the state physical activity maps can help guide policy and program development to promote physical activity and reduce the burden of chronic disease. PMID:27959906

Impact of high coverage of monovalent human rotavirus vaccine on Emergency Department presentations for rotavirus gastroenteritis.

PubMed

Davey, Heather M; Muscatello, David J; Wood, James G; Snelling, Thomas L; Ferson, Mark J; Macartney, Kristine K

2015-03-30

Australia was one of the first countries to introduce nationally funded rotavirus vaccination. The program has had a substantial impact on both rotavirus and all-cause acute gastroenteritis (AGE) hospitalisations and rotavirus laboratory tests. Evidence for an impact on Emergency Department (ED) presentations is limited. This study assessed changes in ED presentations for rotavirus in children aged <5 years in New South Wales, Australia, following introduction of monovalent human rotavirus vaccine (RV1, Rotarix(®), GlaxoSmithKline Australia Pty Ltd., Victoria, Australia). A time series analysis to examine trends in total non-admitted ED presentations for all-cause AGE and in the rotavirus-attributable fraction using data on rotavirus positive laboratory tests. A decline in the rate of non-admitted ED presentations for all-cause AGE was observed for all ages, being most notable in 1 year old children. Compared with the pre-vaccination period, we estimated the average weekly rate was lower across the first 4.5 years of the program for both all-cause AGE (18.3%; 70.5 versus 57.5 per 100,000 population) and rotavirus attributable (55.4%; 17.3 versus 7.7 per 100,000 population) presentations. In the fourth year of the program, estimated annual rotavirus attributable presentations were 77% lower than the pre-vaccination annual mean (996 versus 4300 per year). The program was associated with a substantial decline in rotavirus attributable non-admitted AGE presentations to ED among children aged <5 years. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

[Factors related to the slowdown in the reduction of the tuberculosis incidence rate in Osaka City--structure of the high incidence rate of tuberculosis in Osaka City analyzed by administrative-ward group, five-year period and age group].

PubMed

Takatorige, T; Aoki, Y; Tanigake, C; Ruful, A; Tatara, K

2000-09-01

The tuberculosis incidence rate in Osaka City is the highest in Japan. We analyzed the incidence rate in Osaka City in five-year period from 1978 to 1997, namely, 1978-1982 (period I), 1983-1987 (period II), 1988-1992 (period III), and 1993-1997 (period IV). Until the first half of 1980, the tuberculosis incidence rate in Osaka City had been dropping every year, but the rate of decline has been slowed substantially or even stopped since 1983. The incidence rate ratio of Osaka City compared with the national rate was 2.0 to 2.3 from 1970 to 1975, but it has been increasing from 1983 and is now higher than 3. We divided 24 wards of Osaka City into five groups based on selected employment indicators of population 15 years of age and over of 1995 National Census. Group A consists of two wards characterized by extremely high unemployment rate, Group B of four wards by high unemployment rate and high rate of manufacturing workers, Group C of six wards by high rate of non-manufacturing workers (tertiary industry workers), Group D of five wards by high rate of manufacturing workers, and Group E of seven wards by residential areas. The incidence rate of Group A had been declining during periods I and II but started to rise after period III. The rates of Group B and C had been declining from period I to II but the decline slowed down substantially even for every age class in periods III and IV. The incidence rates of Groups D and E have been falling. The incidence rate of the 50-69 year-old age group has been increasing substantially. The proportion of newly registered patients in Group A to all patients of Osaka City increased from 25.2% in period I to 32.7% in period IV. The number of newly registered patients of the 40-69 age class in Group A accounted for 45.1% of that in Osaka City in period IV. The slowdown in the reduction of the tuberculosis incidence rate has occurred not in all, but in only a few wards and it is a typical phenomenon of the middle-aged in those wards. It would be worth investigating whether a substantial decline in the tuberculosis incidence rate in Osaka City cannot be achieved by means of uniform control measures for all wards. Intensified tuberculosis control measures should focus on patients in specific wards and age groups.

Status and trends of the rainbow trout population in the Lees Ferry reach of the Colorado River downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, 1991–2009

USGS Publications Warehouse

Makinster, Andrew S.; Persons, William R.; Avery, Luke A.

2011-01-01

The Lees Ferry reach of the Colorado River, a 25-kilometer segment of river located immediately downstream from Glen Canyon Dam, has contained a nonnative rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) sport fishery since it was first stocked in 1964. The fishery has evolved over time in response to changes in dam operations and fish management. Long-term monitoring of the rainbow trout population downstream of Glen Canyon Dam is an essential component of the Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program. A standardized sampling design was implemented in 1991 and has changed several times in response to independent, external scientific-review recommendations and budget constraints. Population metrics (catch per unit effort, proportional stock density, and relative condition) were estimated from 1991 to 2009 by combining data collected at fixed sampling sites during this time period and at random sampling sites from 2002 to 2009. The validity of combining population metrics for data collected at fixed and random sites was confirmed by a one-way analysis of variance by fish-length class size. Analysis of the rainbow trout population metrics from 1991 to 2009 showed that the abundance of rainbow trout increased from 1991 to 1997, following implementation of a more steady flow regime, but declined from about 2000 to 2007. Abundance in 2008 and 2009 was high compared to previous years, which was likely the result of increased early survival caused by improved habitat conditions following the 2008 high-flow experiment at Glen Canyon Dam. Proportional stock density declined between 1991 and 2006, reflecting increased natural reproduction and large numbers of small fish in samples. Since 2001, the proportional stock density has been relatively stable. Relative condition varied with size class of rainbow trout but has been relatively stable since 1991 for fish smaller than 152 millimeters (mm), except for a substantial decrease in 2009. Relative condition was more variable for larger size classes, and substantial decreases were observed for the 152-304-mm size class in 2009 and 305-405-mm size class in 2008 that persisted into 2009.

Delta smelt: Life history and decline of a once abundant species in the San Francisco Estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Moyle, Peter B.; Brown, Larry R.; Durand, John R; Hobbs, James A.

2016-01-01

This paper reviews what has been learned about Delta Smelt and its status since the publication of The State of Bay-Delta Science, 2008 (Healey et al. 2008). The Delta Smelt is endemic to the upper San Francisco Estuary. Much of its historic habitat is no longer available and remaining habitat is increasingly unable to sustain the population. As a listed species living in the central node of California’s water supply system, Delta Smelt has been the focus of a large research effort to understand causes of decline and identify ways to recover the species. Since 2008, a remarkable record of innovative research on Delta Smelt has been achieved, which is summarized here. Unfortunately, research has not prevented the smelt’s continued decline, which is the result of multiple, interacting factors. A major driver of decline is change to the Delta ecosystem from water exports, resulting in reduced outflows and high levels of entrainment in the large pumps of the South Delta. Invasions of alien species, encouraged by environmental change, have also played a contributing role in the decline. Severe drought effects have pushed Delta Smelt to record low levels in 2014–2015. The rapid decline of the species and failure of recovery efforts demonstrate an inability to manage the Delta for the “co-equal goals” of maintaining a healthy ecosystem and providing a reliable water supply for Californians. Diverse and substantial management actions are needed to preserve Delta Smelt.

Declines and Plateaux in Smoking Prevalence Over Three Decades in Fiji.

PubMed

Linhart, Christine; Tukana, Isimeli; Lin, Sophia; Taylor, Richard; Morrell, Stephen; Vatucawaqa, Penina; Magliano, Dianna J; Zimmet, Paul

2017-11-01

To examine trends from 1980 to 2011 in daily tobacco smoking by sex, ethnicity, age, and urban/rural in Fiji Melanesian (i-Taukei) and Indian adults aged 25-64 years. Unit record data from five population-based surveys (n = 14 528) allowed classification of participants as: (1) never-smoker, ex-smoker, or non-daily smoker; or (2) daily smoker, reporting smoking <20 or ≥20 tobacco products (cigarettes/cigars/pipes) a day. Trends were examined using spline analyses. Over 1980-2011 the prevalence of reported daily tobacco smoking decreased significantly in both sexes and ethnicities, with the greatest decline during 1980-2000. Declines were from 81.7% to 27.0% in i-Taukei men; 55.3% to 26.3% in Indian men; 48.1% to 9.5% in i-Taukei women; and 13.8% to 1.3% in Indian women (p < .0001). Declines were consistent across all age groups in men, while there were greater declines among older age groups in women; and greater declines from higher prevalences in rural compared to urban areas in both sexes and ethnicities. Smoking ≥20 tobacco products per day declined significantly in i-Taukei men from 8.0% to 1.9% (p < .0001); there were also declines in Indian men (4.6% to 2.0%) and i-Taukei women (2.6% to 0.6%), but these were not statistically significant; and Indian women remained <0.2% throughout the period. Significant declines in daily tobacco smoking have occurred in Fiji in both sexes and ethnicities during the past 30 years, which is consistent with declines in tobacco apparent consumption and household expenditure. However, prevalence remains high in men at around 27% in 2011, with plateau at this level in i-Taukei. This is the first study to show nationally representative population trends in tobacco smoking in a developing country over such a long period (>30 years) based on empirical unit record data (n = 14 528). Cardiovascular disease is a leading cause of mortality throughout the Pacific Island region. This is the first study to show evidence of substantial declines over several decades in a cardiovascular disease risk factor in a Pacific Island country, and provides important evidence for further research into the interventions and events which may have facilitated this decline. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco.

Taxonomic and geographic patterns of decline for threatened and endangered species in the United States.

PubMed

Leidner, Allison K; Neel, Maile C

2011-08-01

Species listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act (i.e., listed species) have declined to the point that the probability of their extinction is high. The decline of these species, however, may manifest itself in different ways, including reductions in geographic range, number of populations, or overall abundance. Understanding the pattern of decline can help managers assess extinction probability and define recovery objectives. Although quantitative data on changes in geographic range, number of populations, and abundance usually do not exist for listed species, more often qualitative data can be obtained. We used qualitative data in recovery plans for federally listed species to determine whether each listed species declined in range size, number of populations, or abundance relative to historical levels. We calculated the proportion of listed species in each state (or equivalent) that declined in each of those ways. Nearly all listed species declined in abundance, and range size or number of populations declined in approximately 80% of species for which those data were available. Patterns of decline, however, differed taxonomically and geographically. Declines in range were more common among vertebrates than plants, whereas population extirpations were more common among plants. Invertebrates had high incidence of range and population declines. Narrowly distributed plants and invertebrates may be subject to acute threats that may result in population extirpations, whereas vertebrates may be affected by chronic threats that reduce the extent and size of populations. Additionally, in the eastern United States and U.S. coastal areas, where the level of land conversion is high, a greater percentage of species' ranges declined and more populations were extirpated than in other areas. Species in the Southwest, especially plants, had fewer range and population declines than other areas. Such relations may help in the selection of species' recovery criteria. © 2011 Society for Conservation Biology.

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems.

PubMed

Coates, Peter S; Ricca, Mark A; Prochazka, Brian G; Brooks, Matthew L; Doherty, Kevin E; Kroger, Travis; Blomberg, Erik J; Hagen, Christian A; Casazza, Michael L

2016-10-25

Iconic sagebrush ecosystems of the American West are threatened by larger and more frequent wildfires that can kill sagebrush and facilitate invasion by annual grasses, creating a cycle that alters sagebrush ecosystem recovery post disturbance. Thwarting this accelerated grass-fire cycle is at the forefront of current national conservation efforts, yet its impacts on wildlife populations inhabiting these ecosystems have not been quantified rigorously. Within a Bayesian framework, we modeled 30 y of wildfire and climatic effects on population rates of change of a sagebrush-obligate species, the greater sage-grouse, across the Great Basin of western North America. Importantly, our modeling also accounted for variation in sagebrush recovery time post fire as determined by underlying soil properties that influence ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Our results demonstrate that the cumulative loss of sagebrush to direct and indirect effects of wildfire has contributed strongly to declining sage-grouse populations over the past 30 y at large spatial scales. Moreover, long-lasting effects from wildfire nullified pulses of sage-grouse population growth that typically follow years of higher precipitation. If wildfire trends continue unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced to 43% of their current numbers over the next three decades. Our results provide a timely example of how altered fire regimes are disrupting recovery of sagebrush ecosystems and leading to substantial declines of a widespread indicator species. Accordingly, we present scenario-based stochastic projections to inform conservation actions that may help offset the adverse effects of wildfire on sage-grouse and other wildlife populations.

Wildfire, climate, and invasive grass interactions negatively impact an indicator species by reshaping sagebrush ecosystems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Coates, Peter S.; Ricca, Mark; Prochazka, Brian; Brooks, Matthew L.; Doherty, Kevin E.; Kroger, Travis; Blomberg, Erik J.; Hagen, Christian A.; Casazza, Michael L.

2016-01-01

Iconic sagebrush ecosystems of the American West are threatened by larger and more frequent wildfires that can kill sagebrush and facilitate invasion by annual grasses, creating a cycle that alters sagebrush ecosystem recovery post disturbance. Thwarting this accelerated grass–fire cycle is at the forefront of current national conservation efforts, yet its impacts on wildlife populations inhabiting these ecosystems have not been quantified rigorously. Within a Bayesian framework, we modeled 30 y of wildfire and climatic effects on population rates of change of a sagebrush-obligate species, the greater sage-grouse, across the Great Basin of western North America. Importantly, our modeling also accounted for variation in sagebrush recovery time post fire as determined by underlying soil properties that influence ecosystem resilience to disturbance and resistance to invasion. Our results demonstrate that the cumulative loss of sagebrush to direct and indirect effects of wildfire has contributed strongly to declining sage-grouse populations over the past 30 y at large spatial scales. Moreover, long-lasting effects from wildfire nullified pulses of sage-grouse population growth that typically follow years of higher precipitation. If wildfire trends continue unabated, model projections indicate sage-grouse populations will be reduced to 43% of their current numbers over the next three decades. Our results provide a timely example of how altered fire regimes are disrupting recovery of sagebrush ecosystems and leading to substantial declines of a widespread indicator species. Accordingly, we present scenario-based stochastic projections to inform conservation actions that may help offset the adverse effects of wildfire on sage-grouse and other wildlife populations.

Reduction of lead concentrations in vegetables grown in Tarragona Province, Spain, as a consequence of reduction of lead in gasoline

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Belles, M.; Rico, A.; Schuhmacher, M.

1995-12-31

Lead concentrations were determined in 350 samples belonging to 13 different species of vegetables from Tarragona Province, Spain. The samples were subjected to lead analyses by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry. During the period 1989-1994, an average decrease for lead concentrations of 69% was estimated. Spinach showed the lowest reduction2 in lead content (6%), while the highest decreases were observed for onion (87%) and leek (90%). Taking into account the average consumption of vegetable foodstuffs by the population of Tarragona Province, the daily lead intake through edible vegetables was reduced from 41.5 {mu}g/d in 1989 to 10.6 {mu}g/d in 1994.more » The results of the current study demonstrate a substantial decline in the lead levels of vegetables from Tarragona Province. The major cause of this decline is most likely the reduced leaded gasoline consumption.« less

Changes in land use as a possible factor in Mourning Dove population decline in Central Utah

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ostrand, William D.; Meyers, P.M.; Bissonette, J.A.; Conover, M.R.

1998-01-01

Mourning Dove (Zenaida macroura) population indices for the western United States have declined significantly since 1966. Based on data collected in 1951-1952, in Fillmore, Utah, we examined whether there had been a local decline in the dove population index since the original data were collected. We then determined whether habitat had been altered, identified which foraging habitats doves preferred, and assessed whether changes in land use could be responsible, in part, for a decline in the local population index. We found that dove population indices declined 72% and 82% from 1952-1992 and 1952-1993, respectively. The most dramatic change in habitat was an 82% decline in land devoted to dry land winter wheat production and a decline in livestock feed pens. Doves foraged primarily in harvested wheat fields, feed pens, and weedy patches. We hypothesize that a decrease in wheat availability during the spring and the consolidation of the livestock industry have contributed to a population decline of Mourning Doves in central Utah.

Age-period-cohort analysis of infectious disease mortality in urban-rural China, 1990-2010.

PubMed

Li, Zhi; Wang, Peigang; Gao, Ge; Xu, Chunling; Chen, Xinguang

2016-03-31

Although a number of studies on infectious disease trends in China exist, these studies have not distinguished the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Here, we analyze infectious disease mortality trends among urban and rural residents in China and distinguish the age, period, and cohort effects simultaneously. Infectious disease mortality rates (1990-2010) of urban and rural residents (5-84 years old) were obtained from the China Health Statistical Yearbook and analyzed with an age-period-cohort (APC) model based on Intrinsic Estimator (IE). Infectious disease mortality is relatively high at age group 5-9, reaches a minimum in adolescence (age group 10-19), then rises with age, with the growth rate gradually slowing down from approximately age 75. From 1990 to 2010, except for a slight rise among urban residents from 2000 to 2005, the mortality of Chinese residents experienced a substantial decline, though at a slower pace from 2005 to 2010. In contrast to the urban residents, rural residents experienced a rapid decline in mortality during 2000 to 2005. The mortality gap between urban and rural residents substantially narrowed during this period. Overall, later birth cohorts experienced lower infectious disease mortality risk. From the 1906-1910 to the 1941-1945 birth cohorts, the decrease of mortality among urban residents was significantly faster than that of subsequent birth cohorts and rural counterparts. With the rapid aging of the Chinese population, the prevention and control of infectious disease in elderly people will present greater challenges. From 1990 to 2010, the infectious disease mortality of Chinese residents and the urban-rural disparity have experienced substantial declines. However, the re-emergence of previously prevalent diseases and the emergence of new infectious diseases created new challenges. It is necessary to further strengthen screening, immunization, and treatment for the elderly and for older cohorts at high risk.

Declining scaup populations: A retrospective analysis of long-term population and harvest survey data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Afton, A.D.; Anderson, M.G.

2001-01-01

We examined long-term databases concerning population status of scaup (lesser [Aythya affinis] and greater scaup [A. marila] combined) and harvest statistics of lesser scaup to identify factors potentially limiting population growth. Specifically, we explored evidence for and against the general hypotheses that scaup populations have declined in association with declining recruitment and/or female survival. We examined geographic heterogeneity in scaup demographic patterns that could yield evidence about potential limiting factors. Several biases exist in survey methodology used to estimate scaup populations and harvest statistics; however, none of these biases likely accounted for our major findings that (1) the continental scaup breeding population has declined over the last 20 years, with widespread and consistent declines within surveyed areas of the Canadian western boreal forest where most lesser scaup breed; (2) sex ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have increased (more males now relative to females); and (3) age ratios of lesser scaup in the U.S. harvest have declined (fewer immatures now relative to adults), especially in the midcontinent region. We interpreted these major findings as evidence that (1) recruitment of lesser scaup has declined over the last 20 years, particularly in the Canadian western boreal forest; and (2) survival of female lesser scaup has declined relative to that of males. We found little evidence that harvest was associated with the scaup population decline. Our findings underscore the need for both improvements and changes to population survey procedures and new research to discriminate among various hypotheses explaining the recent scaup population decline.

Cognitive decline and dementia in the oldest-old.

PubMed

Kravitz, Efrat; Schmeidler, James; Beeri, Michal Schnaider

2012-10-01

The oldest-old are the fastest growing segment of the Western population. Over half of the oldest-old will have dementia, but the etiology is yet unknown. Age is the only risk factor consistently associated with dementia in the oldest-old. Many of the risk and protective factors for dementia in the young elderly, such as ApoE genotype, physical activity, and healthy lifestyle, are not relevant for the oldest-old. Neuropathology is abundant in the oldest-old brains, but specific pathologies of Alzheimer's disease (AD) or vascular dementia are not necessarily correlated with cognition, as in younger persons. It has been suggested that accumulation of both AD-like and vascular pathologies, loss of synaptic proteins, and neuronal loss contribute to the cognitive decline observed in the oldest-old. Several characteristics of the oldest-old may confound the diagnosis of dementia in this age group. A gradual age-related cognitive decline, particularly in executive function and mental speed, is evident even in non-demented oldest-old. Hearing and vision losses, which are also prevalent in the oldest-old and found in some cases to precede/predict cognitive decline, may mechanically interfere in neuropsychological evaluations. Difficulties in carrying out everyday activities, observed in the majority of the oldest-old, may be the result of motor or physical dysfunction and of neurodegenerative processes. The oldest-old appear to be a select population, who escapes major illnesses or delays their onset and duration toward the end of life. Dementia in the oldest-old may be manifested when a substantial amount of pathology is accumulated, or with a composition of a variety of pathologies. Investigating the clinical and pathological features of dementia in the oldest-old is of great importance in order to develop therapeutic strategies and to provide the most elderly of our population with good quality of life.

Cognitive Decline and Dementia in the Oldest-Old

PubMed Central

Kravitz, Efrat; Schmeidler, James; Beeri, Michal Schnaider

2012-01-01

The oldest-old are the fastest growing segment of the Western population. Over half of the oldest-old will have dementia, but the etiology is yet unknown. Age is the only risk factor consistently associated with dementia in the oldest-old. Many of the risk and protective factors for dementia in the young elderly, such as ApoE genotype, physical activity, and healthy lifestyle, are not relevant for the oldest-old. Neuropathology is abundant in the oldest-old brains, but specific pathologies of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) or vascular dementia are not necessarily correlated with cognition, as in younger persons. It has been suggested that accumulation of both AD-like and vascular pathologies, loss of synaptic proteins, and neuronal loss contribute to the cognitive decline observed in the oldest-old. Several characteristics of the oldest-old may confound the diagnosis of dementia in this age group. A gradual age-related cognitive decline, particularly in executive function and mental speed, is evident even in non-demented oldest-old. Hearing and vision losses, which are also prevalent in the oldest-old and found in some cases to precede/predict cognitive decline, may mechanically interfere in neuropsychological evaluations. Difficulties in carrying out everyday activities, observed in the majority of the oldest-old, may be the result of motor or physical dysfunction and of neurodegenerative processes. The oldest-old appear to be a select population, who escapes major illnesses or delays their onset and duration toward the end of life. Dementia in the oldest-old may be manifested when a substantial amount of pathology is accumulated, or with a composition of a variety of pathologies. Investigating the clinical and pathological features of dementia in the oldest-old is of great importance in order to develop therapeutic strategies and to provide the most elderly of our population with good quality of life. PMID:23908850

Sexual and reproductive health: Progress and outstanding needs

PubMed Central

Snow, Rachel C.; Laski, Laura; Mutumba, Massy

2015-01-01

We examine progress towards the 1994 International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) commitment to provide universal access to sexual and reproductive health (SRH) services by 2014, with an emphasis on changes for those living in poor and emerging economies. Accomplishments include a 45% decline in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) between 1990 and 2013; 11.5% decline in global unmet need for modern contraception; ~21% increase in skilled birth attendance; and declines in both the case fatality rate and rate of abortion. Yet aggregate gains mask stark inequalities, with low coverage of services for the poorest women. Demographic and Health Surveys and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys from 80 developing countries highlight persistent disparities in skilled birth attendance by household wealth: in 70 of 80 countries (88%), ≥80% of women in the highest quintile were attended by a skilled provider at last birth; in only 23 of the same countries (29%) was this the case for women in the lowest wealth quintile. While there have been notable declines in HIV incidence and prevalence, women affected by HIV are too often bereft of other SRH services, including family planning. Achieving universal access to SRH will require substantially greater investment in comprehensive and integrated services that reach the poor. PMID:25555027

Declining Rates of Hip Fracture in End-Stage Renal Disease: Analysis From the 2003-2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample.

PubMed

Kim, Sun Moon; Liu, Sai; Long, Jin; Montez-Rath, Maria E; Leonard, Mary B; Chertow, Glenn M

2017-11-01

The incidence of hip fracture in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) is considerably higher than that in the general age- and sex-matched population. Although medical therapy for chronic kidney disease mineral bone disorder (CKD-MBD) has changed considerably over the last decade, rates of hip fracture in the entire ESRD population have not been well-characterized. Herein, we evaluated temporal trends in rates of hip fracture, in-hospital mortality, and costs of associated hospital stay in ESRD. We identified hospitalizations for hip fracture from 2003 to 2011 using the Nationwide Inpatient Sample, a representative national database inclusive of all ages and payers. We incorporated data from the United States Renal Data System and the US Census to calculate population-specific rates. Between 2003 and 2011, we identified 47,510 hip fractures in the ESRD population. The overall rate of hip fracture was 10.04/1000 person-years. The rate was 3.73/1000 person-years in patients aged less than 65 years, and 20.97/1000 person-years in patients aged 65 or older. Age- and sex-standardized rates decreased by 12.6% from 2003 (10.23/1000 person-years; 95% confidence interval [CI], 7.99/1000 to 12.47/1000) to 2011 (8.94/1000 person-years; 95% CI, 7.12/1000 to 10.75/1000). Hip fracture rates over time were virtually identical in patients aged less than 65 years; however, rates decreased by 15.3% among patients aged 65 years or older; rates declined more rapidly in older women compared with older men (p for interaction = 0.047). In-hospital mortality rate after hip fracture operation declined by 26.7% from 2003 (8.6%; 95% CI, 6.8 to 10.4) to 2011 (6.3%; 95% CI, 4.9 to 7.7). In ESRD, age- and sex-standardized hip fracture rates and associated in-hospital mortality have declined substantially over the last decade. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2017 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Habitat availability is a more plausible explanation than insecticide acute toxicity for U.S. grassland bird species declines

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding B...

Trans Fat Intake and Its Dietary Sources in General Populations Worldwide: A Systematic Review

PubMed Central

Wanders, Anne J.; Zock, Peter L.; Brouwer, Ingeborg A.

2017-01-01

After the discovery that trans fat increases the risk of coronary heart disease, trans fat content of foods have considerably changed. The aim of this study was to systematically review available data on intakes of trans fat and its dietary sources in general populations worldwide. Data from national dietary surveys and population studies published from 1995 onward were searched via Scopus and websites of national public health institutes. Relevant data from 29 countries were identified. The most up to date estimates of total trans fat intake ranged from 0.3 to 4.2 percent of total energy intake (En%) across countries. Seven countries had trans fat intakes higher than the World Health Organization recommendation of 1 En%. In 16 out of 21 countries with data on dietary sources, intakes of trans fat from animal sources were higher than that from industrial sources. Time trend data from 20 countries showed substantial declines in industrial trans fat intake since 1995. In conclusion, nowadays, in the majority of countries for which data are available, average trans fat intake is lower than the recommended maximum intake of 1 En%, with intakes from animal sources being higher than from industrial sources. In the past 20 years, substantial reductions in industrial trans fat have been achieved in many countries. PMID:28783062

Population decline induced by gonorrhoea and tuberculosis transmission: Micronesia during the Japanese occupation, 1919–45

PubMed Central

Singer, Burton H.

2011-01-01

The islands of Yap in Micronesia survived a period of severe depopulation during the Japanese occupation from 1919 to 1945. Using data from historical documents, supplemented by ethnographic evidence, we calibrate a simulation model that accounts for this phenomenon. Our model tracks the reproduction histories of a synthetic cohort of women in Yap, including effects of infertility due to gonorrhoea as well as tuberculosis mortality, and predicts the net reproduction rate (NRR). In this particular case and throughout history, human migrations and associated social and cultural interactions have frequently been accompanied by dramatic changes in patterns of disease transmission and substantial demographic consequences. Despite the broad emphasis on mortality as a measure of demographic consequences in the historical and contemporary literature, there are important instances where life expectancy at birth, fertility rates, and total population size are important demographic consequences. We find that gonorrhoea may have significantly contributed to depopulation during the Japanese occupation of Micronesia, due to repeated infections and high risk of sterility. Results of our model suggest that gonorrhoea alone could have reduced the net reproduction rate by 82%, whereas deaths from tuberculosis may have contributed to a 17% decline. PMID:21666856

Larval exposure to the neonicotinoid imidacloprid impacts adult size in the farmland butterfly Pieris brassicae.

PubMed

Whitehorn, Penelope R; Norville, George; Gilburn, Andre; Goulson, Dave

2018-01-01

Populations of farmland butterflies have been suffering from substantial population declines in recent decades. These declines have been correlated with neonicotinoid usage both in Europe and North America but experimental evidence linking these correlations is lacking. The potential for non-target butterflies to be exposed to trace levels of neonicotinoids is high, due to the widespread contamination of agricultural soils and wild plants in field margins. Here we provide experimental evidence that field realistic, sub-lethal exposure to the neonicotinoid imidacloprid negatively impacts the development of the common farmland butterfly Pieris brassicae . Cabbage plants were watered with either 0, 1, 10, 100 or 200 parts per billion imidacloprid, to represent field margin plants growing in contaminated agricultural soils and these were fed to P. brassicae larvae. The approximate digestibility (AD) of the cabbage as well as behavioural responses by the larvae to simulated predator attacks were measured but neither were affected by neonicotinoid treatment. However, the duration of pupation and the size of the adult butterflies were both significantly reduced in the exposed butterflies compared to the controls, suggesting that adult fitness is compromised through exposure to this neonicotinoid.

Molt and aging criteria for four North American grassland passerines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pyle, Peter; Jones, Stephanie L.; Ruth, Janet M.

2008-01-01

Prairie and grassland habitats in central and western North America have declined substantially since settlement by Europeans (Knopf 1994) and many of the birds and other organisms that inhabit North American grasslands have experienced steep declines (Peterjohn and Sauer 1999; Johnson and Igl 1997; Sauer, Hines, and Fallon 2007). The species addressed here, Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), Grasshopper (Ammodramus savannarum) and Baird’s (A. bairdii) sparrows, and Chestnut-collared Longspurs (Calcarius ornatus), are grassland birds that are of special conservation concern throughout their ranges due to declining populations and the loss of the specific grassland habitats required on both their breeding and wintering ranges (Knopf 1994, Davis and Sealy 1998, Davis 2003, Davis 2004, Jones and Dieni 2007). Population-trend data on grassland birds, while clearly showing declines, provides no information on the causes of population declines. Without demographic information (i.e., productivity and survivorship), there are no means to determine when in their life cycle the problems that are creating these declines are occurring, or to determine to what extent population trends are driven by factors that affect birth rates, death rates, or both (DeSante 1995). For migratory birds, population declines may be driven by factors on breeding grounds, during migration, and/or on wintering grounds. Lack of data on productivity and survivorship thus impedes the formulation of effective management and conservation strategies to reverse population declines (DeSante 1992). Furthermore, if deficiencies in survivorship are revealed, management strategies may need to address habitats on both breeding and non-breeding grounds, as well as along migratory pathways. One technique that helps inform management strategies is the biochemical analysis of isotopes and genetic markers, from the sampling of individual feathers from live birds (Smith et al. 2003, Pérez and Hobson 2006; Appendix). Determining demographic parameters and effectively sampling feathers to reveal connectivity between breeding and wintering grounds requires detailed knowledge of molt patterns and age determination criteria for the target species, in the hand. For example, productivity, survivorship, and territory acquisition may all be age-dependent, with first-year birds showing different patterns and responses than older birds. In many cases it may be possible to sample both a feather grown on the breeding grounds and one grown on the wintering grounds from a single individual, but knowledge of age-specific molt patterns, as well as an ability to recognize different feather generations, is needed to accomplish such a task. While some information on molt and aging criteria exists for grassland passerine species (Pyle 1997a), these species have been rarely captured during mark-recapture studies (Jones et al. 2007) and this information thus needs refining. There is a need for additional resources to assist field workers in determining molt patterns and age in captured individuals. Our objective is to describe molt and aging criteria for four grassland passerine species with the aid of digital photographs taken in the field. We hope that this document will be useful for researchers studying grassland species through capture and banding of live individuals on either the breeding or the wintering grounds. We present a general section on molt and aging techniques, followed by specific accounts for the four species treated: Sprague’s Pipits, Grasshopper and Baird sparrows, and Chestnut-collared Longspur. We also provide a brief protocol on collecting feather samples (Appendix).

Improvement and Decline in D.C. Public Schools: CTBS Test Scores, 1987-1990. Research Notes on Education No. 7.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Institute for Independent Education, Inc., Washington, DC.

Median test scores on the Comprehensive Tests of Basic Skills (CTBS) for many District of Columbia public schools declined substantially in 1990, although this decline was not evident in reports from school officials. These declines occurred at elementary, junior high, and senior high school levels, in grades 6, 9, and 11, respectively. They also…

Steep declines in population-level AIDS mortality following the introduction of antiretroviral therapy in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

PubMed Central

Reniers, Georges; Araya, Tekebash; Davey, Gail; Nagelkerke, Nico; Berhane, Yemane; Coutinho, Roel; Sanders, Eduard J.

2009-01-01

Objectives Assessments of population-level effects of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs in Africa are rare. We use data from burial sites to estimate trends in adult AIDS mortality and the mitigating effects of ART in Addis Ababa. ART has been available since 2003, and for free since 2005. Methods To substitute for deficient vital registration, we use surveillance of burials at all cemeteries. We present trends in all-cause mortality, and estimate AIDS mortality (ages 20–64) from lay reports of causes of death. These lay reports are first used as a diagnostic test for the true cause of death. As reference standard we use the cause of death established via verbal autopsy interviews conducted in 2004. The Positive Predictive Value and Sensitivity are subsequently used as anchors to estimate the number of AIDS deaths for the period 2001–2007. Estimates are compared with Spectrum projections. Results Between 2001 and 2005, the number of AIDS deaths declined by 21.9% and 9.3% for men and women, respectively. Between 2005 and 2007, the number of AIDS deaths declined by 38.2% for men and 42.9% for women. Compared to the expected number in the absence of ART, the reduction in AIDS deaths in 2007 is estimated between 56.8% and 63.3%, depending on the coverage of the burial surveillance. Conclusion Five years into the ART program, adult AIDS mortality has been reduced by more than half. Following the free provision of ART in 2005, the decline accelerated and became more gender balanced. Substantial AIDS mortality, however, persists. PMID:19169138

Associations between quality of life and marital status in cancer patients and survivors.

PubMed

Han, Kyu-Tae; Kim, Sun Jung; Song, Haiyan; Chun, Sung-Youn; Kim, Chan Ok; Kim, Jung-Soo; Park, Eun-Cheol

2014-01-01

The cancer survival rate in Korea has substantially increased, necessitating the management of not only patients with cancer but also longer term survivors. Although the divorce rate has drastically increased in Korea, there is not sufficient research regarding the relationship between changes in marital status and quality of life (QOL) in cancer patients and survivors. Thus, we aimed to examine the relationship between marital status and QOL in such cases. This study was performed using the Community Health Survey of 2008 administered by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (N=169,328). We used t-tests and Chi-square tests to compare demographic variables between men and women, and analysis of variance (ANOVA) to compare QOL scores among comparison groups. We also performed a multilevel analysis on the relationship between QOL and marital status while accounting for provincial differences. Decline of EuroQOL five dimensions (EQ-5D) in single patients with cancer was greater than in any other marital status group, but there was no statistically significant decline in survivors of cancer with regard to marital status. In the general population, the decline of EQ-5D was higher among single people than married people. Using the EuroQOL visual analog scale (EQ-VAS), single people had higher values than those of other marital status among both patients with cancer and survivors of cancer. In the general population, EQ-VAS values were higher for single people compared to married people. There may be a significant relationship between marital status and QOL in cancer patients and survivors. Policy interventions to manage patients with cancer who experience a decline in QOL as well as marital problems should be conducted.

Decline in admissions for childhood asthma, a 26-year period population-based study.

PubMed

Mikalsen, Ingvild Bruun; Skeiseid, Liliane; Tveit, Line Merete; Engelsvold, David Hugo; Øymar, Knut

2015-12-01

The prevalence of childhood asthma has increased, although the rate of hospitalization for asthma seems to decrease. In Norway, the rate of hospital admission for childhood asthma from 1984 to 2000 increased. The aim of this study was to assess further trends in hospital admissions for childhood asthma up to 2010. A population-based study including children 1-13 yrs of age hospitalized for asthma during six periods from 1984/1985 to 2009/2010 in Rogaland, Norway, was performed. Medical records from 1536 admissions (1050 children) were studied; and gender, age, number of admissions, length of hospital stay, medications and symptoms were recorded. For all age groups, the rate of admissions per 10.000 increased from 20.1 in 1984/85 to 33.7 in 1989/90, but declined to 14.4 in 2009/2010. Rates were highest in boys (OR 1.87; 95% CI: 1.69, 2.09), younger age groups (OR 2.51; 2.38, 2.64) and decreased from 1984 to 2010 (OR 0.92; 0.88, 0.94). The rates of readmissions were higher than for primary admissions (OR 1.33; 1.19, 1.47). From 1984 to 2010, there was an increased use of inhaled corticosteroids prior to admission (6 to 51%) and started at discharge (7 to 37%), and systemic steroids given during admission (19 to 83%). There has been a substantial decline in the rate of hospital admissions for childhood asthma after 1989/1990, with major differences between age groups and genders. The decline could be due to improved care of children with asthma or a real reduction in asthma exacerbations. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Demographic change and carbon dioxide emissions.

PubMed

O'Neill, Brian C; Liddle, Brant; Jiang, Leiwen; Smith, Kirk R; Pachauri, Shonali; Dalton, Michael; Fuchs, Regina

2012-07-14

Relations between demographic change and emissions of the major greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO(2)) have been studied from different perspectives, but most projections of future emissions only partly take demographic influences into account. We review two types of evidence for how CO(2) emissions from the use of fossil fuels are affected by demographic factors such as population growth or decline, ageing, urbanisation, and changes in household size. First, empirical analyses of historical trends tend to show that CO(2) emissions from energy use respond almost proportionately to changes in population size and that ageing and urbanisation have less than proportional but statistically significant effects. Second, scenario analyses show that alternative population growth paths could have substantial effects on global emissions of CO(2) several decades from now, and that ageing and urbanisation can have important effects in particular world regions. These results imply that policies that slow population growth would probably also have climate-related benefits. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Impacts from control operations on a recreationally hunted feral swine population at a large military installation in Florida.

PubMed

Engeman, Richard; Hershberger, Troy; Orzell, Steve; Felix, Rodney; Killian, Gary; Woolard, John; Cornman, Jon; Romano, David; Huddleston, Chet; Zimmerman, Pat; Barre, Chris; Tillman, Eric; Avery, Michael

2014-06-01

Feral swine were targeted for control at Avon Park Air Force Range in south-central Florida to avert damage to sensitive wetland habitats on the 40,000-ha base. We conducted a 5-year study to assess impacts from control to this population that had been recreationally hunted for many years. Control was initiated in early 2009. The feral swine population was monitored from 2008 to 2012 using a passive tracking index (PTI) during the dry and wet seasons and using recreational hunter take rates from the dry season. All three indices showed substantial feral swine declines after implementing control, with indices leveling for the final two study years. Military missions and recreational hunting seasons impacted temporal and spatial consistency of control application, thereby limiting further impacts of control efforts on the feral swine population. The PTI was also able to monitor coyotes, another invasive species on the base, and detect Florida black bear and Florida panther, species of particular concern.

Post-Disaster Fertility: Hurricane Katrina and the Changing Racial Composition of New Orleans

PubMed Central

Seltzer, Nathan; Nobles, Jenna

2017-01-01

Large-scale climate events can have enduring effects on population size and composition. Natural disasters affect population fertility through multiple mechanisms, including displacement, demand for children, and reproductive care access. Fertility effects, in turn, influence the size and composition of new birth cohorts, extending the reach of climate events across generations. We study these processes in New Orleans during the decade spanning Hurricane Katrina. We combine census data, ACS data, and vital statistics data to describe fertility in New Orleans and seven comparison cities. Following Katrina, displacement contributed to a 30% decline in birth cohort size. Black fertility fell, and remained 4% below expected values through 2010. By contrast, white fertility increased by 5%. The largest share of births now occurs to white women. These fertility differences—beyond migration-driven population change—generate additional pressure on the renewal of New Orleans as a city in which the black population is substantially smaller in the disaster’s wake. PMID:29200546

Post-Disaster Fertility: Hurricane Katrina and the Changing Racial Composition of New Orleans.

PubMed

Seltzer, Nathan; Nobles, Jenna

2017-06-01

Large-scale climate events can have enduring effects on population size and composition. Natural disasters affect population fertility through multiple mechanisms, including displacement, demand for children, and reproductive care access. Fertility effects, in turn, influence the size and composition of new birth cohorts, extending the reach of climate events across generations. We study these processes in New Orleans during the decade spanning Hurricane Katrina. We combine census data, ACS data, and vital statistics data to describe fertility in New Orleans and seven comparison cities. Following Katrina, displacement contributed to a 30% decline in birth cohort size. Black fertility fell, and remained 4% below expected values through 2010. By contrast, white fertility increased by 5%. The largest share of births now occurs to white women. These fertility differences-beyond migration-driven population change-generate additional pressure on the renewal of New Orleans as a city in which the black population is substantially smaller in the disaster's wake.

Brief Report: Rheumatoid Arthritis as the Underlying Cause of Death in Thirty-One Countries, 1987-2011: Trend Analysis of World Health Organization Mortality Database.

PubMed

Kiadaliri, Aliasghar A; Felson, David T; Neogi, Tuhina; Englund, Martin

2017-08-01

To examine trends in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) as an underlying cause of death (UCD) in 31 countries across the world from 1987 to 2011. Data on mortality and population were collected from the World Health Organization mortality database and from the United Nations Population Prospects database. Age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) were calculated by means of direct standardization. We applied joinpoint regression analysis to identify trends. Between-country disparities were examined using between-country variance and the Gini coefficient. Due to low numbers of deaths, we smoothed the ASMRs using a 3-year moving average. Changes in the number of RA deaths between 1987 and 2011 were decomposed using 2 counterfactual scenarios. The absolute number of deaths with RA registered as the UCD decreased from 9,281 (0.12% of all-cause deaths) in 1987 to 8,428 (0.09% of all-cause deaths) in 2011. The mean ASMR decreased from 7.1 million person-years in 1987-1989 to 3.7 million person-years in 2009-2011 (48.2% reduction). A reduction of ≥25% in the ASMR occurred in 21 countries, while a corresponding increase was observed in 3 countries. There was a persistent reduction in RA mortality, and on average, the ASMR declined by 3.0% per year. The absolute and relative between-country disparities decreased during the study period. The rates of mortality attributable to RA have declined globally. However, we observed substantial between-country disparities in RA mortality, although these disparities decreased over time. Population aging combined with a decline in RA mortality may lead to an increase in the economic burden of disease that should be taken into consideration in policy-making. © 2017, American College of Rheumatology.

Consuming fire ants reduces northern bobwhite survival and weight gain

USGS Publications Warehouse

Myers, P.E.; Allen, Craig R.; Birge, Hannah E.

2014-01-01

Northern bobwhite quail, Colinus virginianus (L.) (Galliformes: Odontophoridae), population declines are well documented, but pinpointing the reasons for these decreases has proven elusive. Bobwhite population declines are attributed primarily to loss of habitat and land use changes. This, however, does not entirely explain population declines in areas intensively managed for bobwhites. Although previous research demonstrates the negative impact of red imported fire ant (Solenopsis invicta Buren) (Hymenoptera: Formicidae) on northern bobwhites, the mechanisms underlying this effect are largely unknown. To meet the protein demands of early growth and development, bobwhite chicks predominantly consume small insects, of which ants are a substantial proportion. Fire ants alter ant community dynamics by often reducing native ant diversity and abundance while concurrently increasing the abundance of individuals. Fire ants have negative effects on chicks, but they are also a large potential protein source, making it difficult to disentangle their net effect on bobwhite chicks. To help investigate these effects, we conducted a laboratory experiment to understand (1) whether or not bobwhites consume fire ants, and (2) how the benefits of this consumption compare to the deleterious impacts of bobwhite chick exposure to fire ants. Sixty bobwhite chicks were separated into two groups of 30; one group was provided with starter feed only and the second group was provided with feed and fire ants. Bobwhite chicks were observed feeding on fire ants. Chicks that fed on fire ants had reduced survival and weight gain. Our results show that, while fire ants increase potential food sources for northern bobwhite, their net effect on bobwhite chicks is deleterious. This information will help inform land managers and commercial bobwhite rearing operations.

Documenting and explaining the HIV decline in east Zimbabwe: the Manicaland General Population Cohort

PubMed Central

Gregson, Simon; Mugurungi, Owen; Eaton, Jeffrey; Takaruza, Albert; Rhead, Rebecca; Maswera, Rufurwokuda; Mutsvangwa, Junior; Mayini, Justin; Skovdal, Morten; Schaefer, Robin; Hallett, Timothy; Sherr, Lorraine; Munyati, Shungu; Mason, Peter; Campbell, Catherine; Garnett, Geoffrey P; Nyamukapa, Constance Anesu

2017-01-01

Purpose The Manicaland cohort was established to provide robust scientific data on HIV prevalence and incidence, patterns of sexual risk behaviour and the demographic impact of HIV in a sub-Saharan African population subject to a generalised HIV epidemic. The aims were later broadened to include provision of data on the coverage and effectiveness of national HIV control programmes including antiretroviral therapy (ART). Participants General population open cohort located in 12 sites in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe, representing 4 major socioeconomic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). 9,109 of 11,453 (79.5%) eligible adults (men 17-54 years; women 15–44 years) were recruited in a phased household census between July 1998 and January 2000. Five rounds of follow-up of the prospective household census and the open cohort were conducted at 2-year or 3-year intervals between July 2001 and November 2013. Follow-up rates among surviving residents ranged between 77.0% (over 3 years) and 96.4% (2 years). Findings to date HIV prevalence was 25.1% at baseline and had a substantial demographic impact with 10-fold higher mortality in HIV-infected adults than in uninfected adults and a reduction in the growth rate in the worst affected areas (towns) from 2.9% to 1.0%pa. HIV infection rates have been highest in young adults with earlier commencement of sexual activity and in those with older sexual partners and larger numbers of lifetime partners. HIV prevalence has since fallen to 15.8% and HIV incidence has also declined from 2.1% (1998-2003) to 0.63% (2009-2013) largely due to reduced sexual risk behaviour. HIV-associated mortality fell substantially after 2009 with increased availability of ART. Future plans We plan to extend the cohort to measure the effects on the epidemic of current and future HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Proposals for access to these data and for collaboration are welcome. PMID:28988165

The interaction of drought and habitat explain space-time patterns of establishment in saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea).

PubMed

Winkler, Daniel E; Conver, Joshua L; Huxman, Travis E; Swann, Don E

2018-03-01

The long-lived columnar saguaro cactus (Carnegiea gigantea) is among the most studied plants in the world. Long-term studies have shown saguaro establishment to be generally episodic and strongly influenced by precipitation and temperature. Water limitation through lower-than-average seasonal rainfall and elevated temperatures increasing evaporative loss can reduce survivorship of recent germinates. Thus, multi-year, extended drought could cause populations to decline as older saguaros die without replacement. Previous studies have related establishment to temporal variation in rainfall, but most studies have been on non-randomized plots in ideal habitat and thus might not have captured the full variability within the local area. We studied how saguaro establishment varied in space and which habitat features may buffer responses to drought on 36 4-ha plots located randomly across an elevation gradient, including substantial replication in landscape position (bajada, foothills, and slopes) in the two disjunct districts of Saguaro National Park in southern Arizona, USA. Recent, severe drought coincided with drastic declines in saguaro establishment across this ~25,000-ha area. Establishment patterns derived from the park-wide data set was strongly correlated with drought, but the Park's two districts and diversity of plots demonstrated substantially different population outcomes. Saguaro establishment was best explained by the interaction of drought and habitat type; establishment in bajada and foothill plots dropped to near-zero under the most severe periods of water limitation but remained higher in slope plots during the same time span. Combined with saguaro density estimates, these data suggest that the most suitable habitat type for saguaro establishment shifted to higher elevations during the time span of the recent drought. These results place into context the extent to which historical patterns of demography provide insight into future population dynamics in a changing climate and reveal the importance of understanding dynamics across the distribution of possible local habitat types with response to variation in weather. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

Trends in the leading causes of injury mortality, Australia, Canada, and the United States, 2000-2014.

PubMed

Mack, Karin; Clapperton, Angela; Macpherson, Alison; Sleet, David; Newton, Donovan; Murdoch, James; Mackay, J Morag; Berecki-Gisolf, Janneke; Wilkins, Natalie; Marr, Angela; Ballesteros, Michael; McClure, Roderick

2017-06-16

The aim of this study was to highlight the differences in injury rates between populations through a descriptive epidemiological study of population-level trends in injury mortality for the high-income countries of Australia, Canada and the United States. Mortality data were available for the US from 2000 to 2014, and for Canada and Australia from 2000 to 2012. Injury causes were defined using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision external cause codes, and were grouped into major causes. Rates were direct-method age-adjusted using the US 2000 projected population as the standard age distribution. US motor vehicle injury mortality rates declined from 2000 to 2014 but remained markedly higher than those of Australia or Canada. In all three countries, fall injury mortality rates increased from 2000 to 2014. US homicide mortality rates declined, but remained higher than those of Australia and Canada. While the US had the lowest suicide rate in 2000, it increased by 24% during 2000-2014, and by 2012 was about 14% higher than that in Australia and Canada. The poisoning mortality rate in the US increased dramatically from 2000 to 2014. Results show marked differences and striking similarities in injury mortality between the countries and within countries over time. The observed trends differed by injury cause category. The substantial differences in injury rates between similarly resourced populations raises important questions about the role of societal-level factors as underlying causes of the differential distribution of injury in our communities.

The role of multiple stressor causes in declining amphibian populations: a wingspread workshop summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krest, S.K.; Linder, G.; Sparling, D.W.; Linder, Gregory L.; Krest, Sherry K.; Sparling, Donald W.; Little, Edward E.

2003-01-01

Numerous studies have documented the decline of amphibian populations over the past decade and no single factor has been the linked to these widespread declines. Determining the causes of declining amphibian populations worldwide has proven difficult because of the variety of anthropogenic and natural suspect agents. A Wingspread workshop, convened by The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), brought together individuals with expertise in the areas of amphibian biology, ecotoxicology, natural resource management, and environmental policy. This workshop had three objectives: 1) create a network for future discussions on multiple stressor causes of declines; 2) characterize and prioritize technical issues critical to the analysis of the decline problem; and 3) identify and develop resource management approaches to promote sustainable and healthy amphibian populations. The workshop proceedings will be summarized in a book entitled, 'Multiple Stressors and Declining Amphibian Populations: Evaluating Cause and Effect.' This paper summarizes the results of the workshop.

The role of multiple stressor causes in declining amphibian populations: A wingspread workshop summary

USGS Publications Warehouse

Krest, S.K.; Linder, G.; Sparling, D.W.; ,

2003-01-01

Numerous studies have documented the decline of amphibian populations over the past decade and no single factor has been the linked to these widespread declines. Determining the causes of declining amphibian populations worldwide has proven difficult because of the variety of anthropogenic and natural suspect agents. A Wingspread workshop, convened by The Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC), brought together individuals with expertise in the areas of amphibian biology, ecotoxicology, natural resource management, and environmental policy. This workshop had three objectives: 1) create a network for future discussions on multiple Stressor causes of declines; 2) characterize and prioritize technical issues critical to the analysis of the decline problem; and 3) identify and develop resource management approaches to promote sustainable and healthy amphibian populations. The workshop proceedings will be summarized in a book entitled, "Multiple Stressors and Declining Amphibian Populations: Evaluating Cause and Effect." This paper summarizes the results of the workshop.

A longitudinal genetic survey identifies temporal shifts in the population structure of Dutch house sparrows

PubMed Central

Cousseau, L; Husemann, M; Foppen, R; Vangestel, C; Lens, L

2016-01-01

Dutch house sparrow (Passer domesticus) densities dropped by nearly 50% since the early 1980s, and similar collapses in population sizes have been reported across Europe. Whether, and to what extent, such relatively recent demographic changes are accompanied by concomitant shifts in the genetic population structure of this species needs further investigation. Therefore, we here explore temporal shifts in genetic diversity, genetic structure and effective sizes of seven Dutch house sparrow populations. To allow the most powerful statistical inference, historical populations were resampled at identical locations and each individual bird was genotyped using nine polymorphic microsatellites. Although the demographic history was not reflected by a reduction in genetic diversity, levels of genetic differentiation increased over time, and the original, panmictic population (inferred from the museum samples) diverged into two distinct genetic clusters. Reductions in census size were supported by a substantial reduction in effective population size, although to a smaller extent. As most studies of contemporary house sparrow populations have been unable to identify genetic signatures of recent population declines, results of this study underpin the importance of longitudinal genetic surveys to unravel cryptic genetic patterns. PMID:27273323

Peptic ulcer disease.

PubMed

Lanas, Angel; Chan, Francis K L

2017-08-05

The rapidly declining prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection and widespread use of potent anti-secretory drugs means peptic ulcer disease has become substantially less prevalent than it was two decades ago. Management has, however, become more challenging than ever because of the threat of increasing antimicrobial resistance worldwide and widespread use of complex anti-thrombotic therapy in the ageing population. Peptic ulcers not associated with H pylori infection or the use of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs are now also imposing substantial diagnostic and therapeutic challenges. This Seminar aims to provide a balanced overview of the latest advances in the pathogenetic mechanisms of peptic ulcers, guidelines on therapies targeting H pylori infection, approaches to treatment of peptic ulcer complications associated with anti-inflammatory analgesics and anti-thrombotic agents, and the unmet needs in terms of our knowledge and management of this increasingly challenging condition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Trends in late-life disability in Taiwan: The roles of education, environment, and technology

PubMed Central

Martin, Linda G.; Zimmer, Zachary; Hurng, Baai-Shyun

2011-01-01

This analysis offers the first strong evidence of trends in late-life disability in an emerging economy. Consistent measures of limitations in seeing, hearing, physical functions, instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs), and activities of daily living (ADLs) were available for three to six survey waves, depending on the outcome, from 1989 to 2007 for the population of Taiwan aged 65 and older. Limitations in seeing, hearing, and IADLs declined substantially, but trends were mixed for physical functions and flat for ADLs. The remarkable reduction in difficulty phoning, an IADL, may reflect changes in telecommunications infrastructure and highlights the roles of environment and technology in disability outcomes. Trends for urban residents were more advantageous than those for rural residents for seeing and hearing, but less so for physical functions and IADLs. Were it not for the substantial increase in educational attainment, trends in all outcomes would have been less favorable. PMID:21923619

Brazil.

PubMed

1983-07-01

Attention in this discussion of Brazil focuses: the history of the country's demographic situation; government's overall approach to population problems; population data systems and development planning; institutional arrangements for the integration of population within development planning; government's view of the importance of population policy in achieving development objectives; population size, growth, and natural increase; fertility; international migration; and spatial distribution. The population of Brazil grew from 17 million in 1900 to about 119 million in 1960, making it the most populous country in the world and 1 of the relatively few countries to have sustained rates of population growth of more than 2% for over a century. The government has not adopted an explicit policy to modify fertility or population growth. Initially this was because of its positive perception of the benefits of population growth and a large population size and, amore recently, because of Brazil's gradual transition to more moderate levels of fertility and population growth. Brazil's main sources of demographic data are its 9 censuses, conducted in 1982, 1890, 1900, 1920, 1940, 1950, 1960, 1970, and most recently in August 1980. A nationwide system of vital registration data are still lacking in many geographic areas, researchers have had to rely on indirect estimation techniques to derive estimates of past trends in fertility and mortality. Population policy has been regarded as a highly sensitive issue by Brazilian officials, and the government remains cautious in regard to population issues. Preliminary results of Brazil's 1980 census indicate a population of 119 million and an annual rate of population growth of 2.1%, continuing the downward trend that was first evident in 1976. The government considers levels and trends of population growth to be satisfactory, and morbidity and mortality to be unacceptable, partly because of a lack of success in reducing the incidence of certain infectious and parasitic diseases. Among the various programs that have been established to increase the coverage of health care services is the Program for Grass Roots Health and Sanitation Action in North-East Brazil. Brazil experienceed a substantial decline in fertility between 1970-80, with the crude birthrate falling by about 25% to below 30/1000 population. The government considers levels and trends of fertility to be satisfactory, both in relation to population growth and family well-being. Fertility control in Brazil has been essentially a private matter. Contraceptives are sold freely in pharmacies and have been widely used for decades by the middle and upper classes. Immigration ceased to be demographically significant about 1940. Brazil has never experienced large-scale emigration. The government considers both immigration and emigration to be not significant and satisfactory. Although the rate of aggregate population growth declined modestly after the 1960s, the rate of urbanization slowed down only very slightly. The government regards present patterns of spatial distribution to be inappropriate and to require substantial modification.

Temporal change in megafauna at the Rose Garden hydrothermal vent (Galapagos Rift; eastern tropical Pacific)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hessler, Robert R.; Smithey, William M.; Boudrias, Michel A.; Keller, Clifford H.; Lutz, Richard A.; Childress, James J.

1988-10-01

Hydrothermal vent communities must undergo substantial temporal change because of their dynamic physical milieu. This was verified in March 1985, when the Rose Garden hydrothermal vent on the Galapagos Rift was revisited after 5 1/4 years' absence. Comparison of photographs from the two visits revealed considerable faunal change. Among the hosts to chemoautotrophic bacteria, vestimentiferans were reduced from dominance to very low numbers. The mytilid was now extremely abundant and dominated vent openings. Vesicomyids also were more abundant. In general, vent-field suspension feeders had declined; anemones were distinctly less abundant, and siphonophores and enteropneusts were virtually absent. The decline of serpulids was likely, but less obvious. Of the mobile scavengers and carnivores, both galatheids and whelks were distincly more common. These community changes appear to result from both continuing recruitment and changes in the physical milieu. While the growth of some populations could have resulted from expanding opportunities, the population of at least one, the vesicomyid, had not achieved carrying capacity in 1979, and this could have pertained to others as well. The decrease of vestimentiferans may have been caused by declining vent-water flux, a process that would favor mytilids, or more complete vent-water filtration by the mytilids themselves. The same factors also could explain the reduction of vent-field filter feeders. These observations suggest that early stages in the cycle of Galapagos-type vent communities are likely to be dominated by vestimentiferans, but that bivalves will replace them with time.

Decline in tuberculosis among Mexico-born persons in the United States, 2000-2010.

PubMed

Baker, Brian J; Jeffries, Carla D; Moonan, Patrick K

2014-05-01

In 2010, Mexico was the most common (22.9%) country of origin for foreign-born persons with tuberculosis in the United States, and overall trends in tuberculosis morbidity are substantially influenced by the Mexico-born population. To determine the risk of tuberculosis disease among Mexico-born persons living in the United States. Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined tuberculosis case counts and case rates stratified by years since entry into the United States and geographic proximity to the United States-Mexico border. We calculated trends in case rates over time measured by average annual percent change. The total tuberculosis case count (-14.5%) and annual tuberculosis case rate (average annual percent change -5.1%) declined among Mexico-born persons. Among those diagnosed with tuberculosis less than 1 year since entry into the United States (newly arrived persons), there was a decrease in tuberculosis cases (-60.4%), no change in tuberculosis case rate (average annual percent change of 0.0%), and a decrease in population (-60.7%). Among those living in the United States for more than 5 years (non-recently arrived persons), there was an increase in tuberculosis cases (+3.4%), a decrease in tuberculosis case rate (average annual percent change of -4.9%), and an increase in population (+62.7%). In 2010, 66.7% of Mexico-born cases were among non-recently arrived persons, compared with 51.1% in 2000. Although border states reported the highest proportions (>15%) of tuberculosis cases that were Mexico-born, the highest Mexico-born-specific tuberculosis case rates (>20/100,000 population) were in states in the eastern and southeastern regions of the United States. The decline in tuberculosis morbidity among Mexico-born persons may be attributed to fewer newly arrived persons from Mexico and lower tuberculosis case rates among non-recently arrived Mexico-born persons. The extent of the decline was dampened by an unchanged tuberculosis case rate among newly arrived persons from Mexico and a large increase in the non-recently arrived Mexico-born population. If current trends continue, tuberculosis morbidity among Mexico-born persons will be increasingly driven by those who have been living in the United States for more than 5 years.

Decline in Tuberculosis among Mexico-Born Persons in the United States, 2000–2010

PubMed Central

Baker, Brian J.; Jeffries, Carla D.; Moonan, Patrick K.

2016-01-01

Background In 2010, Mexico was the most common (22.9%) country of origin for foreign-born persons with tuberculosis in the United States, and overall trends in tuberculosis morbidity are substantially influenced by the Mexico-born population. Objectives To determine the risk of tuberculosis disease among Mexico-born persons living in the United States. Methods Using data from the U.S. National Tuberculosis Surveillance System and the American Community Survey, we examined tuberculosis case counts and case rates stratified by years since entry into the United States and geographic proximity to the United States–Mexico border. We calculated trends in case rates over time measured by average annual percent change. Results The total tuberculosis case count (−14.5%) and annual tuberculosis case rate (average annual percent change −5.1%) declined among Mexico-born persons. Among those diagnosed with tuberculosis less than 1 year since entry into the United States (newly arrived persons), there was a decrease in tuberculosis cases (−60.4%), no change in tuberculosis case rate (average annual percent change of 0.0%), and a decrease in population (−60.7%). Among those living in the United States for more than 5 years (non-recently arrived persons), there was an increase in tuberculosis cases (+3.4%), a decrease in tuberculosis case rate (average annual percent change of −4.9%), and an increase in population (+62.7%). In 2010, 66.7% of Mexico-born cases were among non–recently arrived persons, compared with 51.1% in 2000. Although border states reported the highest proportions (>15%) of tuberculosis cases that were Mexico-born, the highest Mexico-born–specific tuberculosis case rates (>20/100,000 population) were in states in the eastern and southeastern regions of the United States. Conclusions The decline in tuberculosis morbidity among Mexico-born persons may be attributed to fewer newly arrived persons from Mexico and lower tuberculosis case rates among non–recently arrived Mexico-born persons. The extent of the decline was dampened by an unchanged tuberculosis case rate among newly arrived persons from Mexico and a large increase in the non–recently arrived Mexico-born population. If current trends continue, tuberculosis morbidity among Mexico-born persons will be increasingly driven by those who have been living in the United States for more than 5 years. PMID:24708206

Population status of Kittlitz's Murrelet Brachyramphus brevirostris along the southern coast of the Alaska Peninsula

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Pelt, Thomas I.; Piatt, John F.

2005-01-01

The Kittlitz's murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) is a rare seabird that nests in alpine terrain and generally forages near tidewater glaciers during the breeding season. An estimated 95% of the global population breeds in Alaska, with some unknown proportion breeding in the Russian Far East. A global population estimate using bestavailable data in the early 1990s was 20,000 individuals. However, recent survey data from two core areas (Prince William Sound and Glacier Bay) suggest that populations have declined by 75-90% during the past 10-20 years. In response to these declines, a coalition of environmental groups petitioned the USFWS in May 2001 to list the Kittlitz’s murrelet under the Endangered Species Act (ESA), and in 2004 Kittlitz’s Murrelet was declared a candidate species under the ESA. In 2005, BirdLife International classified the species as “critically endangered”. In 2002, we began a three-year project to examine population status and trend of Kittlitz’s Murrelets in areas where distribution and abundance were poorly known. Results from the 2002 field season, focused on the south coast of the Kenai Peninsula, suggested that the local population of Kittlitz’s Murrelets has declined by ca. 74% since 1986, with a current population of ca. 500 individuals. Here we present results from the 2003 field season when we surveyed Kittlitz’s Murrelets along the southern coast of the Alaska Peninsula. This is a large region that encompasses a substantial portion of the known range of the Kittlitz’s Murrelet, yet has never been surveyed rigorously for murrelets or any other non-colonial marine birds. During four weeks of surveys, we established a set of nearshore and offshore transects (over 825 linear kilometers in total) with a stratified sample design, combining random and systematically selected transects. From a total of 123 individuals seen on transects, we estimate a total population of 2265 (95% CI 1165-4405) Kittlitz’s Murrelets along the south coast of the Alaska Peninsula. For comparison, we estimate the population size of the congeneric Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus). We discuss broad-scale murrelet habitat relationships and species comparisons, and present recommendations for management and future work. Other species of marine birds and mammals were also surveyed; summarized information is included as an appendix.

Dietary partitioning of Australia's two marsupial hypercarnivores, the Tasmanian devil and the spotted-tailed quoll, across their shared distributional range

PubMed Central

Johnson, Christopher N.; Barmuta, Leon A.; Jones, Menna E.

2017-01-01

Australia’s native marsupial fauna has just two primarily flesh-eating ‘hypercarnivores’, the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) and the spotted-tailed quoll (Dasyurus maculatus) which coexist only on the island of Tasmania. Devil populations are currently declining due to a fatal transmissible cancer. Our aim was to analyse the diet of both species across their range in Tasmania, as a basis for understanding how devil decline might affect the abundance and distribution of quolls through release from competition. We used faecal analysis to describe diets of one or both species at 13 sites across Tasmania. We compared diet composition and breadth between the two species, and tested for geographic patterns in diets related to rainfall and devil population decline. Dietary items were classified into 6 broad categories: large mammals (≥ 7.0kg), medium-sized mammals (0.5–6.9kg), small mammals (< 0.5kg), birds, reptiles and invertebrates. Diet overlap based on prey-size category was high. Quoll diets were broader than devils at all but one site. Devils consumed more large and medium-sized mammals and quolls more small mammals, reptiles and invertebrates. Medium-sized mammals (mainly Tasmanian pademelon Thylogale billardierii), followed by large mammals (mainly Bennett’s wallaby Macropus rufogriseus) and birds, were the most important prey groups for both species. Diet composition varied across sites, suggesting that both species are flexible and opportunistic foragers, but was not related to rainfall for devils. Quolls included more large mammals but fewer small mammals and invertebrates in their diet in the eastern drier parts of Tasmania where devils have declined. This suggests that a competitive release of quolls may have occurred and the substantial decline of devils has provided more food in the large-mammal category for quolls, perhaps as increased scavenging opportunities. The high diet overlap suggests that if resources become limited in areas of high devil density, interspecific competition could occur. PMID:29176811

Baseline participation in a health examination survey of the population 65 years and older: who is missed and why?

PubMed

Gaertner, Beate; Seitz, Ina; Fuchs, Judith; Busch, Markus A; Holzhausen, Martin; Martus, Peter; Scheidt-Nave, Christa

2016-01-19

Public health monitoring depends on valid health and disability estimates in the population 65+ years. This is hampered by high non-participation rates in this age group. There is limited insight into size and direction of potential baseline selection bias. We analyzed baseline non-participation in a register-based random sample of 1481 inner-city residents 65+ years, invited to a health examination survey according to demographics available for the entire sample, self-report information as available and reasons for non-participation. One year after recruitment, non-responders were revisited to assess their reasons. Five groups defined by participation status were differentiated: participants (N = 299), persons who had died or moved (N = 173), those who declined participation, but answered a short questionnaire (N = 384), those who declined participation and the short questionnaire (N = 324), and non-responders (N = 301). The results confirm substantial baseline selection bias with significant underrepresentation of persons 85+ years, persons in residential care or from disadvantaged neighborhoods, with lower education, foreign citizenship, or lower health-related quality of life. Finally, reasons for non-participation could be identified for 78% of all non-participants, including 183 non-responders. A diversity in health problems and barriers to participation exists among non-participants. Innovative study designs are needed for public health monitoring in aging populations.

Climate-associated population declines reverse recovery and threaten future of an iconic high-elevation plant.

PubMed

Krushelnycky, Paul D; Loope, Lloyd L; Giambelluca, Thomas W; Starr, Forest; Starr, Kim; Drake, Donald R; Taylor, Andrew D; Robichaux, Robert H

2013-03-01

Although climate change is predicted to place mountain-top and other narrowly endemic species at severe risk of extinction, the ecological processes involved in such extinctions are still poorly resolved. In addition, much of this biodiversity loss will likely go unobserved, and therefore largely unappreciated. The Haleakalā silversword is restricted to a single volcano summit in Hawai'i, but is a highly charismatic giant rosette plant that is viewed by 1-2 million visitors annually. We link detailed local climate data to a lengthy demographic record, and combine both with a population-wide assessment of recent plant mortality and recruitment, to show that after decades of strong recovery following successful management, this iconic species has entered a period of substantial climate-associated decline. Mortality has been highest at the lower end of the distributional range, where most silverswords occur, and the strong association of annual population growth rates with patterns of precipitation suggests an increasing frequency of lethal water stress. Local climate data confirm trends toward warmer and drier conditions on the mountain, and signify a bleak outlook for silverswords if these trends continue. The silversword example foreshadows trouble for diversity in other biological hotspots, and illustrates how even well-protected and relatively abundant species may succumb to climate-induced stresses. © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Surgery-Independent Language Function Decline in Patients Undergoing Awake Craniotomy.

PubMed

Gonen, Tal; Sela, Gal; Yanakee, Ranin; Ram, Zvi; Grossman, Rachel

2017-03-01

Despite selection process before awake-craniotomy, some patients experience an unexpected decline in language functions in the operating room (OR), compared with their baseline evaluation, which may impair their functional monitoring. To investigate this phenomenon we prospectively compared language function the day before surgery and on entrance to the OR. Data were collected prospectively from consecutive patients undergoing awake-craniotomy with intraoperative cortical mapping for resection of gliomas affecting language areas. Language functions of 79 patients were evaluated and compared 1-2 days before surgery and after entering the OR. Changes in functional linguistic performance were analyzed with respect to demographic, clinical, and pathologic characteristics. There was a significant decline in language function, beyond sedation effect, after entering the OR, (from median/interquartile range: 0.94/0.72-0.98 to median/interquartile range: 0.86/0.51-0.94; Z = -7.19, P < 0.001). Univariate analyses revealed that this decline was related to age, preoperative Karnofsky Performance Scale, tumor location, tumor pathology, and preexisting language deficits. Multivariate stepwise regression identified tumor pathology and the presence of preoperative language deficit as significant independent predictors for this functional decline. Patients undergoing awake-craniotomy may experience a substantial decline in language functioning after entering the OR. Tumor grade and the presence of preoperative language deficits were significant risk factors for this phenomenon, suggesting a possible relation between cognitive reserve, psychobehavioral coping abilities and histologic features of a tumor involving language areas. Capturing and identifying this unique population of patients who are prone to experience such language decline may improve our ability in the future to select patients eligible for awake-craniotomy. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Education and the cognitive decline associated with MRI-defined brain infarct.

PubMed

Elkins, J S; Longstreth, W T; Manolio, T A; Newman, A B; Bhadelia, R A; Johnston, S C

2006-08-08

To assess whether educational attainment, a correlate of cognitive reserve, predicts the amount of cognitive decline associated with a new brain infarct. The Cardiovascular Health Study is a population-based, longitudinal study of people aged 65 years and older. Cognitive function was measured annually using the Modified Mini-Mental State Examination (3MS) and the Digit-Symbol Substitution Test (DSST). The authors tested whether education level modified 1) the cross-sectional association between cognitive performance and MRI-defined infarct and 2) the change in cognitive function associated with an incident infarct at a follow-up MRI. In cross-sectional analysis (n = 3,660), MRI-defined infarct was associated with a greater impact on 3MS performance in the lowest education quartile when compared with others (p for heterogeneity = 0.012). Among those with a follow-up MRI who had no infarct on initial MRI (n = 1,433), education level was not associated with the incidence, size, or location of new brain infarct. However, a new MRI-defined infarct predicted substantially greater decline in 3MS scores in the lowest education group compared with the others (6.3, 95% CI 4.4- to 8.2-point decline vs 1.7, 95% CI 0.7- to 2.7-point decline; p for heterogeneity < 0.001). Higher education was not associated with smaller declines in DSST performance in the setting of MRI-defined infarct. Education seems to modify an individual's decline on a test of general cognitive function when there is incident brain infarct. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that cognitive reserve influences the impact of vascular injury in the brain.

Ancient DNA from Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) of South-Western China Reveals Genetic Diversity Loss during the Holocene

PubMed Central

Barlow, Axel; Cooper, Alan; Hou, Xin-Dong; Ji, Xue-Ping; Zhong, Bo-Jian; Liu, Hong; Flynn, Lawrence J.; Yuan, Jun-Xia; Wang, Li-Rui; Basler, Nikolas; Westbury, Michael V.; Hofreiter, Michael; Lai, Xu-Long

2018-01-01

The giant panda was widely distributed in China and south-eastern Asia during the middle to late Pleistocene, prior to its habitat becoming rapidly reduced in the Holocene. While conservation reserves have been established and population numbers of the giant panda have recently increased, the interpretation of its genetic diversity remains controversial. Previous analyses, surprisingly, have indicated relatively high levels of genetic diversity raising issues concerning the efficiency and usefulness of reintroducing individuals from captive populations. However, due to a lack of DNA data from fossil specimens, it is unknown whether genetic diversity was even higher prior to the most recent population decline. We amplified complete cytb and 12s rRNA, partial 16s rRNA and ND1, and control region sequences from the mitochondrial genomes of two Holocene panda specimens. We estimated genetic diversity and population demography by analyzing the ancient mitochondrial DNA sequences alongside those from modern giant pandas, as well as from other members of the bear family (Ursidae). Phylogenetic analyses show that one of the ancient haplotypes is sister to all sampled modern pandas and the second ancient individual is nested among the modern haplotypes, suggesting that genetic diversity may indeed have been higher earlier during the Holocene. Bayesian skyline plot analysis supports this view and indicates a slight decline in female effective population size starting around 6000 years B.P., followed by a recovery around 2000 years ago. Therefore, while the genetic diversity of the giant panda has been affected by recent habitat contraction, it still harbors substantial genetic diversity. Moreover, while its still low population numbers require continued conservation efforts, there seem to be no immediate threats from the perspective of genetic evolutionary potential. PMID:29642393

Ancient DNA from Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) of South-Western China Reveals Genetic Diversity Loss during the Holocene.

PubMed

Sheng, Gui-Lian; Barlow, Axel; Cooper, Alan; Hou, Xin-Dong; Ji, Xue-Ping; Jablonski, Nina G; Zhong, Bo-Jian; Liu, Hong; Flynn, Lawrence J; Yuan, Jun-Xia; Wang, Li-Rui; Basler, Nikolas; Westbury, Michael V; Hofreiter, Michael; Lai, Xu-Long

2018-04-06

The giant panda was widely distributed in China and south-eastern Asia during the middle to late Pleistocene, prior to its habitat becoming rapidly reduced in the Holocene. While conservation reserves have been established and population numbers of the giant panda have recently increased, the interpretation of its genetic diversity remains controversial. Previous analyses, surprisingly, have indicated relatively high levels of genetic diversity raising issues concerning the efficiency and usefulness of reintroducing individuals from captive populations. However, due to a lack of DNA data from fossil specimens, it is unknown whether genetic diversity was even higher prior to the most recent population decline. We amplified complete cyt b and 12s rRNA, partial 16s rRNA and ND1 , and control region sequences from the mitochondrial genomes of two Holocene panda specimens. We estimated genetic diversity and population demography by analyzing the ancient mitochondrial DNA sequences alongside those from modern giant pandas, as well as from other members of the bear family (Ursidae). Phylogenetic analyses show that one of the ancient haplotypes is sister to all sampled modern pandas and the second ancient individual is nested among the modern haplotypes, suggesting that genetic diversity may indeed have been higher earlier during the Holocene. Bayesian skyline plot analysis supports this view and indicates a slight decline in female effective population size starting around 6000 years B.P., followed by a recovery around 2000 years ago. Therefore, while the genetic diversity of the giant panda has been affected by recent habitat contraction, it still harbors substantial genetic diversity. Moreover, while its still low population numbers require continued conservation efforts, there seem to be no immediate threats from the perspective of genetic evolutionary potential.

Migrants, healthy worker effect, and mortality trends in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

PubMed

Chaabna, Karima; Cheema, Sohaila; Mamtani, Ravinder

2017-01-01

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia, have experienced unique demographic changes. The major population growth contributor in these countries is young migrants, which has led to a shift in the population age pyramid. Migrants constitute the vast proportion of GCC countries' population reaching >80% in Qatar and UAE. Using Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015) and United Nations data, for the GCC countries, we assessed the association between age-standardized mortality and population size trends with linear and polynomial regressions. In 1990-2015, all-cause age-standardized mortality was inversely proportional to national population size (p-values: 0.0001-0.0457). In Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, the highest annual decrease in mortality was observed when the annual population growth was the highest. In Qatar, all-cause age-specific mortality was inversely proportional to age-specific population size. This association was statistically significant among the 5-14 and 15-49 age groups, which have the largest population size. Cause-specific age-standardized mortality was also inversely proportional to population size. This association was statistically significant for half of the GBD 2015-defined causes of death such as "cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases" and "HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis". Remarkably, incoming migrants to Qatar have to be negative for HIV, hepatitis B and C, and tuberculosis. These results show that decline in mortality can be partly attributed to the increase in GCC countries' population suggesting a healthy migrant effect that influences mortality rates. Consequently, benefits of health interventions and healthcare improvement are likely to be exaggerated in such countries hosting a substantial proportion of migrants compared with countries where migration is low. Researchers and policymakers should be cautious to not exclusively attribute decline in mortality within the GCC countries as a result of the positive effects of health interventions or healthcare improvement.

Wolf population dynamics in the U.S. Northern Rocky Mountains are affected by recruitment and human-caused mortality

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gude, J.A.; Mitchell, M.S.; Russell, R.E.; Sime, C.A.; Bangs, E.E.; Mech, L.D.; Ream, R.R.

2012-01-01

Reliable analyses can help wildlife managers make good decisions, which are particularly critical for controversial decisions such as wolf (Canis lupus) harvest. Creel and Rotella (2010) recently predicted substantial population declines in Montana wolf populations due to harvest, in contrast to predictions made by Montana Fish, Wildlife and Parks (MFWP). We replicated their analyses considering only those years in which field monitoring was consistent, and we considered the effect of annual variation in recruitment on wolf population growth. Rather than assuming constant rates, we used model selection methods to evaluate and incorporate models of factors driving recruitment and human-caused mortality rates in wolf populations in the Northern Rocky Mountains. Using data from 27 area-years of intensive wolf monitoring, we show that variation in both recruitment and human-caused mortality affect annual wolf population growth rates and that human-caused mortality rates have increased with the sizes of wolf populations. We document that recruitment rates have decreased over time, and we speculate that rates have decreased with increasing population sizes and/or that the ability of current field resources to document recruitment rates has recently become less successful as the number of wolves in the region has increased. Estimates of positive wolf population growth in Montana from our top models are consistent with field observations and estimates previously made by MFWP for 2008-2010, whereas the predictions for declining wolf populations of Creel and Rotella (2010) are not. Familiarity with limitations of raw data, obtained first-hand or through consultation with scientists who collected the data, helps generate more reliable inferences and conclusions in analyses of publicly available datasets. Additionally, development of efficient monitoring methods for wolves is a pressing need, so that analyses such as ours will be possible in future years when fewer resources will be available for monitoring. ?? 2011 The Wildlife Society. Copyright ?? The Wildlife Society, 2011.

Migrants, healthy worker effect, and mortality trends in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries

PubMed Central

Cheema, Sohaila; Mamtani, Ravinder

2017-01-01

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries namely, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Saudi Arabia, have experienced unique demographic changes. The major population growth contributor in these countries is young migrants, which has led to a shift in the population age pyramid. Migrants constitute the vast proportion of GCC countries’ population reaching >80% in Qatar and UAE. Using Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015) and United Nations data, for the GCC countries, we assessed the association between age-standardized mortality and population size trends with linear and polynomial regressions. In 1990–2015, all-cause age-standardized mortality was inversely proportional to national population size (p-values: 0.0001–0.0457). In Bahrain, Qatar, Oman, and Saudi Arabia, the highest annual decrease in mortality was observed when the annual population growth was the highest. In Qatar, all-cause age-specific mortality was inversely proportional to age-specific population size. This association was statistically significant among the 5–14 and 15–49 age groups, which have the largest population size. Cause-specific age-standardized mortality was also inversely proportional to population size. This association was statistically significant for half of the GBD 2015-defined causes of death such as “cirrhosis and other chronic liver diseases” and “HIV/AIDS and tuberculosis”. Remarkably, incoming migrants to Qatar have to be negative for HIV, hepatitis B and C, and tuberculosis. These results show that decline in mortality can be partly attributed to the increase in GCC countries’ population suggesting a healthy migrant effect that influences mortality rates. Consequently, benefits of health interventions and healthcare improvement are likely to be exaggerated in such countries hosting a substantial proportion of migrants compared with countries where migration is low. Researchers and policymakers should be cautious to not exclusively attribute decline in mortality within the GCC countries as a result of the positive effects of health interventions or healthcare improvement. PMID:28632794

Multistate Models Reveal Long-Term Trends of Northern Spotted Owls in the Absence of a Novel Competitor

PubMed Central

Kroll, Andrew J.; Jones, Jay E.; Stringer, Angela B.; Meekins, Douglas J.

2016-01-01

Quantifying spatial and temporal variability in population trends is a critical aspect of successful management of imperiled species. We evaluated territory occupancy dynamics of northern spotted owls (Strix occidentalis caurina), California, USA, 1990–2014. The study area possessed two unique aspects. First, timber management has occurred for over 100 years, resulting in dramatically different forest successional and structural conditions compared to other areas. Second, the barred owl (Strix varia), an exotic congener known to exert significant negative effects on spotted owls, has not colonized the study area. We used a Bayesian dynamic multistate model to evaluate if territory occupancy of reproductive spotted owls has declined as in other study areas. The state-space approach for dynamic multistate modeling imputes the number of territories for each nesting state and allows for the estimation of longer-term trends in occupied or reproductive territories from longitudinal studies. The multistate approach accounts for different detection probabilities by nesting state (to account for either inherent differences in detection or for the use of different survey methods for different occupancy states) and reduces bias in state assignment. Estimated linear trends in the number of reproductive territories suggested an average loss of approximately one half territory per year (-0.55, 90% CRI: -0.76, -0.33), in one management block and a loss of 0.15 per year (-0.15, 90% CRI: -0.24, -0.07), in another management block during the 25 year observation period. Estimated trends in the third management block were also negative, but substantial uncertainty existed in the estimate (-0.09, 90% CRI: -0.35, 0.17). Our results indicate that the number of territories occupied by northern spotted owl pairs remained relatively constant over a 25 year period (-0.07, 90% CRI: -0.20, 0.05; -0.01, 90% CRI: -0.19, 0.16; -0.16, 90% CRI: -0.40, 0.06). However, we cannot exclude small-to-moderate declines or increases in paired territory numbers due to uncertainty in our estimates. Collectively, we conclude spotted owl pair populations on this landscape managed for commercial timber production appear to be more stable and do not show sharp year-over-year declines seen in both managed and unmanaged landscapes with substantial barred owl colonization and persistence. Continued monitoring of reproductive territories can determine whether recent declines continue or whether trends reverse as they have on four previous occasions. Experimental investigations to evaluate changes to spotted owl occupancy dynamics when barred owl populations are reduced or removed entirely can confirm the generality of this conclusion. PMID:27065016

[Economic growth with zero population growth and with declining population].

PubMed

Kurz, R

1982-05-01

The effects of both zero population growth and a declining population on economic growth are considered. Although the neoclassical theory of economic growth leads to optimistic results in such cases, the author suggests that this theory cannot be used as a basis for political action. The need for further research into the economic effects of a stationary or declining population is stressed. (summary in ENG)

Creating the Out-of-State University: Do Public Universities Increase Nonresident Freshman Enrollment in Response to Declining State Appropriations?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Jaquette, Ozan; Curs, Bradley R.

2015-01-01

This study investigates whether public universities respond to declines in state appropriations by increasing nonresident freshman enrollment. State higher education appropriations declined substantially during the 2000s, compelling public universities to become more dependent on net-tuition revenue. State policy controls often limit the growth of…

Losses of ecosystem service values in the Taihu Lake Basin from 1979 to 2010

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhang, Hui; Wang, Qiao; Li, Guangyu; Zhang, Hanpei; Zhang, Jue

2017-06-01

The Taihu Lake Basin, an east-coastal developed area, is one of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas in China. Ecosystem services in the Taihu Lake Basin have been overexploited and jeopardized. Based on land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) data from 1979, 1984, 2000, and 2010, in conjunction with the adjusted ecosystem service values (ESV), changes in ESV were analyzed in detail. Results revealed that LUCC resulted in a substantial decrease in total ESV from 3.92 billion in 1979 to 2.98 billion in 2010. The ESV of cropland decreased from 1.64 billion in 1979 to 1.34 billion in 2010, which represented a 20.28% reduction. The ESV of water areas decreased from 1.08 billion in 1979 to 0.36 billion in 2010, which represented a 65.62% reduction mainly because of a decline in water quality. In terms of annual change rate, cropland and water areas showed a sustained downward trend. Spatially, ESV declines were mainly observed in Suzhou, Wuxi, Changzhou, and Shanghai, probably due to a combination of economic progress, population growth, and rapid urbanization. The research results can be a useful reference for policymakers in mitigating ESV decline.

The decline of adult smallpox in eighteenth-century London.

PubMed

Davenport, Romola; Schwarz, Leonard; Boulton, Jeremy

2011-01-01

Smallpox was probably the single most lethal disease in eighteenth-century Britain, but was a minor cause of death by the mid-nineteenth century. Although vaccination was crucial to the decline of smallpox, especially in urban areas, from the beginning of the nineteenth century, it remains disputed the extent to which smallpox mortality declined before vaccination. Analysis of age-specific changes in smallpox burials within the large west London parish of St Martin-in-the-Fields revealed a precipitous reduction in adult smallpox risk from the 1770s, and this pattern was duplicated in the east London parish of St Dunstan's. Most adult smallpox victims were rural migrants, and such a drop in their susceptibility is consistent with a sudden increase in exposure to smallpox in rural areas. We investigated whether this was due to the spread of inoculation, or an increase in smallpox transmission, using changes in the age patterns of child smallpox burials. Smallpox mortality rose among infants, and smallpox burials became concentrated at the youngest ages, suggesting a sudden increase in infectiousness of the smallpox virus. Such a change intensified the process of smallpox endemicization in the English population, but also made cities substantially safer for young adult migrants.

[Demography of Mexico City. The same problems with less population].

PubMed

Camposortega Cruz, S

1991-01-01

The Mexico City metropolitan area currently extends over 4451.2 sq km, completely covering the Federal District and 27 municipios in the state of Mexico. The current population of the Mexico City metropolitan area is estimated at about 16.1 million and its growth rate at approximately 2%/year. The crude birth rate is 24/1000 and the crude death rate 6/1000. The metropolitan Mexico City population represents 18.6% of the total Mexican population. Mexico's other large cities fall far behind in total population, Guadalajara with 3.16 million, Monterrey with 2.77 million, and Puebla with 1.5 million. Mexico City is 1 of the 5 largest cities of the world. Estimates of the current Mexico City population differ substantially from projections completed in the 1980s, which calculated populations of 19-22 million. The explanation of the difference lies primarily in overestimation of the metropolitan population in the 1980 census, the basis for the projections. Preliminary data from the 1990 census, data from the 1987 National Fertility and Health Survey, vital statistics, and some data on internal migration allow a preliminary correction of calculations relating to Mexico's population dynamics. During the 20th century, Mexico City's population has grown from 345,000 in 1900 to 1,029,000 in 1930, 3,136,000 in 1950, 9,045,000 in 1970, and 15,785,000 in 1990. The most rapid growth occurred in 1930-70, when the population grew by more than 5% annually. The growth rate declined to 3.65% between 1970-80 and according to preliminary estimated to 1.92% in 1980-90. Factors explaining the declining growth rate may include the fertility decline in Mexico City, reorientation of migration away from Mexico City and toward inntermediate cities with under 1 million inhabitants, and departures from Mexico City caused by the 1985 earthquakes, private and public decentralization policies, pollution, and other factos which have reduced the attractiveness of the capital. The reevised calculations suggest that Mexico City's population will not reach 20 million until early in the 21st century. Although demographic pressure on Mexico City is thus reduced, it is by no means eliminated, given that current needs are only partially being met. It is estimated for example that Mexico City requires 6.3 million jobs, but only 6.1 million are available, of which 1.1 million pay less than the minimum wage.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

PubMed

Hefley, Trevor J; Hooten, Mevin B; Drake, John M; Russell, Robin E; Walsh, Daniel P

2016-11-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

When can the cause of a population decline be determined?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hefley, Trevor J.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Drake, John M.; Russell, Robin E.; Walsh, Daniel P.

2016-01-01

Inferring the factors responsible for declines in abundance is a prerequisite to preventing the extinction of wild populations. Many of the policies and programmes intended to prevent extinctions operate on the assumption that the factors driving the decline of a population can be determined. Exogenous factors that cause declines in abundance can be statistically confounded with endogenous factors such as density dependence. To demonstrate the potential for confounding, we used an experiment where replicated populations were driven to extinction by gradually manipulating habitat quality. In many of the replicated populations, habitat quality and density dependence were confounded, which obscured causal inference. Our results show that confounding is likely to occur when the exogenous factors that are driving the decline change gradually over time. Our study has direct implications for wild populations, because many factors that could drive a population to extinction change gradually through time.

Injury hospitalizations due to unintentional falls among the Aboriginal population of British Columbia, Canada: incidence, changes over time, and ecological analysis of risk markers, 1991-2010.

PubMed

Jin, Andrew; Lalonde, Christopher E; Brussoni, Mariana; McCormick, Rod; George, M Anne

2015-01-01

Aboriginal people in British Columbia (BC) have higher injury incidence than the general population. Our project describes variability among injury categories, time periods, and geographic, demographic and socio-economic groups. This report focuses on unintentional falls. We used BC's universal health care insurance plan as a population registry, linked to hospital separation and vital statistics databases. We identified Aboriginal people by insurance premium group and birth and death record notations. We identified residents of specific Aboriginal communities by postal code. We calculated crude incidence and Standardized Relative Risk (SRR) of hospitalization for unintentional fall injury, standardized for age, gender and Health Service Delivery Area (HSDA), relative to the total population of BC. We tested hypothesized associations of geographic, socio-economic, and employment-related characteristics with community SRR of injury by linear regression. During 1991 through 2010, the crude rate of hospitalization for unintentional fall injury in BC was 33.6 per 10,000 person-years. The Aboriginal rate was 49.9 per 10,000 and SRR was 1.89 (95% confidence interval 1.85-1.94). Among those living on reserves SRR was 2.00 (95% CI 1.93-2.07). Northern and non-urban HSDAs had higher SRRs, within both total and Aboriginal populations. In every age and gender category, the HSDA-standardized SRR was higher among the Aboriginal than among the total population. Between 1991 and 2010, crude rates and SRRs declined substantially, but proportionally more among the Aboriginal population, so the gap between the Aboriginal and total population is narrowing, particularly among females and older adults. These community characteristics were associated with higher risk: lower income, lower educational level, worse housing conditions, and more hazardous types of employment. Over the years, as socio-economic conditions improve, risk of hospitalization due to unintentional fall injury has declined among the Aboriginal population. Women and older adults have benefited more.

Injury Hospitalizations Due to Unintentional Falls among the Aboriginal Population of British Columbia, Canada: Incidence, Changes over Time, and Ecological Analysis of Risk Markers, 1991-2010

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Background Aboriginal people in British Columbia (BC) have higher injury incidence than the general population. Our project describes variability among injury categories, time periods, and geographic, demographic and socio-economic groups. This report focuses on unintentional falls. Methods We used BC’s universal health care insurance plan as a population registry, linked to hospital separation and vital statistics databases. We identified Aboriginal people by insurance premium group and birth and death record notations. We identified residents of specific Aboriginal communities by postal code. We calculated crude incidence and Standardized Relative Risk (SRR) of hospitalization for unintentional fall injury, standardized for age, gender and Health Service Delivery Area (HSDA), relative to the total population of BC. We tested hypothesized associations of geographic, socio-economic, and employment-related characteristics with community SRR of injury by linear regression. Results During 1991 through 2010, the crude rate of hospitalization for unintentional fall injury in BC was 33.6 per 10,000 person-years. The Aboriginal rate was 49.9 per 10,000 and SRR was 1.89 (95% confidence interval 1.85-1.94). Among those living on reserves SRR was 2.00 (95% CI 1.93-2.07). Northern and non-urban HSDAs had higher SRRs, within both total and Aboriginal populations. In every age and gender category, the HSDA-standardized SRR was higher among the Aboriginal than among the total population. Between 1991 and 2010, crude rates and SRRs declined substantially, but proportionally more among the Aboriginal population, so the gap between the Aboriginal and total population is narrowing, particularly among females and older adults. These community characteristics were associated with higher risk: lower income, lower educational level, worse housing conditions, and more hazardous types of employment. Conclusions Over the years, as socio-economic conditions improve, risk of hospitalization due to unintentional fall injury has declined among the Aboriginal population. Women and older adults have benefited more. PMID:25793298

Impact of forestry practices at a landscape scale on the dynamics of amphibian populations.

PubMed

Harper, Elizabeth B; Patrick, David A; Gibbs, James P

2015-12-01

Forest loss is a primary cause of worldwide amphibian decline. Timber harvesting in the United States has caused dramatic changes in quality and extent of forest ecosystems, and intensive forest management still occurs. Although numerous studies have documented substantial reductions in amphibian densities related to timber harvest, subsequent extinctions are rare. To better understand the population dynamics that have allowed so many amphibian species to persist in the face of widespread forest disturbance, we developed spatially explicit metapopulation models for four forest-dependent amphibian species (Lithobates sylvaticus, Ambystoma opacum, A. talpoideum, and A. maculatum) that incorporated demographic and habitat selection data derived from experiments conducted as part of the Land Use Effects on Amphibian Populations Project (LEAP). We projected local and landscape-scale population persistence under 108 different forestry practice scenarios, varying treatment (partial cut, clear-cut with coarse woody debris [CWD] removed, and clearcut with CWD retained), cut patch size (1, 10, or 50 ha), total area cut (10, 20, or 30%), and initial amphibian population size (5, 50, or 500 adult females per local breeding population). Under these scenarios, landscape-scale extinction was highly unlikely, occurring in < 1% of model runs and for only 2 of the 4 species, because landscape-scale populations were able to persist via dispersal even despite frequent local extinctions. Yet for all species, population sizes were reduced to -50% in all clear-cut scenarios, regardless of the size of harvested patches. These findings suggest that debate over timber harvesting on pool-breeding amphibian populations in the United States should focus not on questions of landscape-scale extinction but on the ecological consequences of dramatic reductions in amphibian biomass, including changes in trophic interactions, nutrient cycling, and energy transfer. Additionally, we conclude that amphibian declines and extinctions are far more likely to occur as a result of permanent habitat loss resulting from development than from the temporary degradation of habitat caused by current forestry practices.

Status review of the Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) in Alaska and British Columbia

USGS Publications Warehouse

Piatt, John F.; Kuletz, K.J.; Burger, A.E.; Hatch, Shyla A.; Friesen, Vicki L.; Birt, T.P.; Arimitsu, Mayumi L.; Drew, G.S.; Harding, A.M.A.; Bixler, K.S.

2007-01-01

The Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) is a small, diving seabird inhabiting inshore waters of the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. This species feeds on small, schooling fishes and zooplankton, and nests primarily on the moss-covered branches of large, old-growth conifers, and also, in some parts of its range, on the ground. We reviewed existing information on this species to evaluate its current status in the northern part of its range-Alaska (U.S.) and British Columbia (Canada). Within the southern part of its range (Washington, Oregon, and California, U.S.), the Marbled Murrelet was listed as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 1993, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) needed information on the species throughout its range for ESA deliberations. We compiled published information on the conservation status, population biology, foraging ecology, population genetics, population status and trends, demography, marine and nesting habitat characteristics, threats, and ongoing conservation efforts for Marbled Murrelets in Alaska and British Columbia. We conducted a new genetic study using samples from a segment of the range that had not been included in previous studies (Washington, Oregon) and additional nuclear intron and microsatellite markers. We also analyzed available at-sea survey data from several locations for trend. To understand the reasonableness of the empirical trend data, we developed demographic models incorporating stochasticity to discern what population trends were possible by chance. The genetic studies substantially confirmed previous findings on population structure in the Marbled Murrelet. Our present work finds three populations: (1) one comprising birds in the central and western Aleutian Islands; (2) one comprising birds in central California; and (3) one comprising birds within the center of the range from the eastern Aleutians to northern California. Our knowledge of genetic structure within this central population is limited and it requires additional study. Compiling available abundance information, we estimated that in the recent past, Marbled Murrelets in Alaska numbered on the order of 1 million birds. We were unable to generate a similar estimate for historical population size in British Columbia. Using trend information from at-sea surveys spanning a wide geographic range in Alaska, murrelet numbers declined significantly at five of eight trend sites at annual rates of -5.4 to -12.7 percent since the early 1990s. Applying these rates of decline to the historical population estimate, the current murrelet population in Alaska is projected to be on the order of 270,000 birds. This represents an overall population decline of about 70 percent during the past 25 years. In British Columbia, available trend data indicate that murrelet populations there have experienced similar declines. We updated a recent (2002) population estimate for British Columbia, concluding that there are now between 54,000 and 92,000 murrelets in British Columbia. The rates of decline we observed are within, but at the high end of, a range of rates expected by chance. Given that declines were estimated for sites over essentially the entire northern range of the species, there is cause for concern about the species? status. In their marine habitats, Marbled Murrelets overlap with salmon (Oncorhynchus sp.) gillnetting operations in British Columbia and in Alaska (especially in Prince William Sound and Southeast Alaska), and annual bycatch mortality is likely in the low thousands per year, although bycatch rates are difficult to measure. The species? inshore distribution coincides with high levels of vessel traffic and makes them especially vulnerable to both chronic oil pollution and to catastrophic spills (e.g., the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill [EVOS] in south-central Alaska, which is estimated to have killed 12,000 to 15,000 murrelets). In their forested nesting habitats, Marbled Murrelets have lost about 15 percent of their suitable nesting habitat in Southeast Alaska, and 33 to 49 percent in British Columbia, from industrial-scale logging within the past half century. Increased predation also may be a threat to murrelet populations, related to fragmentation and edge effects from logging and development, and recent population increases observed for some important murrelet predators, including Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus), Common Ravens (Corvus corax), and Steller?s Jays (Cyanocitta stelleri). Nesting habitat losses cannot explain the declines observed in areas where industrial logging has not occurred on a large scale (e.g., Prince William Sound) or at all (Glacier Bay). The apparent change in population size and rates of decline reported for the Marbled Murrelet are large, and we therefore considered alternative explanations and precedents for changes of similar magnitude in other marine wildlife populations in the Northeastern Pacific Ocean. The declines are likely real, and related to combined and cumulative effects from climate-related changes in the marine ecosystem (most likely the 1977 regime shift) and human activities (logging, gillnet bycatch, oil pollution). Much uncertainty about the decline could be alleviated by continuing to repeat boat surveys in Prince William Sound and lower Cook Inlet, and by repeating the boat survey of Southeast Alaska that was conducted in 1994. This survey used a statistically sound design and covered the region that has been and likely remains the center of the species? abundance. Important questions remain to be addressed about methods for measuring population status and change, adult mortality (major sources, density dependence, seasonal concordance), and the movements of wintering populations.

Long-Term Climate Forcing in Loggerhead Sea Turtle Nesting

PubMed Central

Van Houtan, Kyle S.; Halley, John M.

2011-01-01

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions—such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. PMID:21589639

Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.

PubMed

Van Houtan, Kyle S; Halley, John M

2011-04-27

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.

Impact of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal/gonadal axes on trajectory of age-related cognitive decline.

PubMed

Conrad, Cheryl D; Bimonte-Nelson, Heather A

2010-01-01

Life expectancies have increased substantially in the last century, dramatically amplifying the proportion of individuals who will reach old age. As individuals age, cognitive ability declines, although the rate of decline differs amongst the forms of memory domains and for different individuals. Memory domains especially impacted by aging are declarative and spatial memories. The hippocampus facilitates the formation of declarative and spatial memories. Notably, the hippocampus is particularly vulnerable to aging. Genetic predisposition and lifetime experiences and exposures contribute to the aging process, brain changes and subsequent cognitive outcomes. In this review, two factors to which an individual is exposed, the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis and the hypothalamic-pituitary-gonadal (HPG) axis, will be considered regarding the impact of age on hippocampal-dependent function. Spatial memory can be affected by cumulative exposure to chronic stress via glucocorticoids, released from the HPA axis, and from gonadal steroids (estrogens, progesterone and androgens) and gonadotrophins, released from the HPG axis. Additionally, this review will discuss how these hormones impact age-related hippocampal function. We hypothesize that lifetime experiences and exposure to these hormones contribute to the cognitive makeup of the aged individual, and contribute to the heterogeneous aged population that includes individuals with cognitive abilities as astute as their younger counterparts, as well as individuals with severe cognitive decline or neurodegenerative disease. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Long-term trends in supply and sustainability of the health workforce in remote Aboriginal communities in the Northern Territory of Australia.

PubMed

Zhao, Yuejen; Russell, Deborah J; Guthridge, Steven; Ramjan, Mark; Jones, Michael P; Humphreys, John S; Carey, Timothy A; Wakerman, John

2017-12-19

International evidence suggests that a key to improving health and attaining more equitable health outcomes for disadvantaged populations is a health system with a strong primary care sector. Longstanding problems with health workforce supply and turnover in remote Aboriginal communities in the Northern Territory (NT), Australia, jeopardise primary care delivery and the effort to overcome the substantial gaps in health outcomes for this population. This research describes temporal changes in workforce supply in government-operated clinics in remote NT communities through a period in which there has been a substantial increase in health funding. Descriptive and Markov-switching dynamic regression analysis of NT Government Department of Health payroll and financial data for the resident health workforce in 54 remote clinics, 2004-2015. The workforce included registered Remote Area Nurses and Midwives (nurses), Aboriginal Health Practitioners (AHPs) and staff in administrative and logistic roles. total number of unique employees per year; average annual headcounts; average full-time equivalent (FTE) positions; agency employed nurse FTE estimates; high and low supply state estimates. Overall increases in workforce supply occurred between 2004 and 2015, especially for administrative and logistic positions. Supply of nurses and AHPs increased from an average 2.6 to 3.2 FTE per clinic, although supply of AHPs has declined since 2010. Each year almost twice as many individual NT government-employed nurses or AHPs are required for each FTE position. Following funding increases, some clinics doubled their nursing and AHP workforce and achieved relative stability in supply. However, most clinics increased staffing to a much smaller extent or not at all, typically experiencing a "fading" of supply following an initial increase associated with greater funding, and frequently cycling periods of higher and lower staffing levels. Overall increases in workforce supply in remote NT communities between 2004 and 2015 have been affected by continuing very high turnover of nurses and AHPs, and compounded by recent declines in AHP supply. Despite substantial increases in resourcing, an imperative remains to implement more robust health service models which better support the supply and retention of resident health staff.

Lymphocyte maintenance during healthy aging requires no substantial alterations in cellular turnover.

PubMed

Westera, Liset; van Hoeven, Vera; Drylewicz, Julia; Spierenburg, Gerrit; van Velzen, Jeroen F; de Boer, Rob J; Tesselaar, Kiki; Borghans, José A M

2015-04-01

In healthy humans, lymphocyte populations are maintained at a relatively constant size throughout life, reflecting a balance between lymphocyte production and loss. Given the profound immunological changes that occur during healthy aging, including a significant decline in T-cell production by the thymus, lymphocyte maintenance in the elderly is generally thought to require homeostatic alterations in lymphocyte dynamics. Surprisingly, using in vivo (2) H2 O labeling, we find similar dynamics of most lymphocyte subsets between young adult and elderly healthy individuals. As the contribution of thymic output to T-cell production is only minor from young adulthood onward, compensatory increases in peripheral T-cell division rates are not required to maintain the T-cell pool, despite a tenfold decline in thymic output. These fundamental insights will aid the interpretation of further research into aging and clinical conditions related to disturbed lymphocyte dynamics. © 2015 The Authors. Aging Cell published by the Anatomical Society and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A boreal invasion in response to climate change? Range shifts and community effects in the borderland between forest and tundra.

PubMed

Elmhagen, Bodil; Kindberg, Jonas; Hellström, Peter; Angerbjörn, Anders

2015-01-01

It has been hypothesized that climate warming will allow southern species to advance north and invade northern ecosystems. We review the changes in the Swedish mammal and bird community in boreal forest and alpine tundra since the nineteenth century, as well as suggested drivers of change. Observed changes include (1) range expansion and increased abundance in southern birds, ungulates, and carnivores; (2) range contraction and decline in northern birds and carnivores; and (3) abundance decline or periodically disrupted dynamics in cyclic populations of small and medium-sized mammals and birds. The first warm spell, 1930-1960, stands out as a period of substantial faunal change. However, in addition to climate warming, suggested drivers of change include land use and other anthropogenic factors. We hypothesize all these drivers interacted, primarily favoring southern generalists. Future research should aim to distinguish between effects of climate and land-use change in boreal and tundra ecosystems.

Organized Labor and Racial Wage Inequality in the United States1

PubMed Central

Rosenfeld, Jake; Kleykamp, Meredith

2014-01-01

Why have African-American private-sector unionization rates surpassed those of white workers for decades, and how has private-sector union decline exacerbated black-white wage inequality? Using data from the Current Population Survey (1973–2007), the authors show that African-Americans join unions for protection against discriminatory treatment in nonunion sectors. A model-predicted wage series also shows that, among women, black-white weekly wage gaps would be between 13% and 30% lower if union representation remained at high levels. The effect of deunionization on racial wage inequality for men is less substantial, but without deunionization, weekly wages for black men would be an estimated $49 higher. The results recast organized labor as an institution vital for its economic inclusion of African-American men and women. This study points to the need to move beyond class-based analyses of union decline to an understanding of the gendered role unions once played in mitigating racial inequality. PMID:25620802

Estimating the effects of the Balanced Budget act of 1997 on the home health care use of the dually eligible: a natural experiments approach.

PubMed

Williamson, James M

2013-01-01

This research examines the use of home health agency services used by older adults after the implementation of changes to Medicare's payment scheme mandated by the Balanced Budget Act (BBA) of 1997. The objective of this study is to identify differential effects the BBA may have had on home health service use between dually eligible and Medicare-only beneficiaries. The results of this study suggest that although dually eligible and Medicare-only beneficiaries experienced a substantial decline in home health service use, the dually eligible had a relatively larger decline. Following the BBA, the dually eligible had more office-based physician visits but fewer inpatient hospital days, relative to the Medicare-only population. Finally, the author estimates cost savings to Medicare due to the BBA to be $1 billion in the 2 years following the legislation, whereas Medicaid programs shouldered a larger percentage of the home health service bill.

Stagnant Neonatal Mortality and Persistent Health Inequality in Middle-Income Countries: A Case Study of the Philippines

PubMed Central

Kraft, Aleli D.; Nguyen, Kim-Huong; Jimenez-Soto, Eliana; Hodge, Andrew

2013-01-01

Background The probability of survival through childhood continues to be unequal in middle-income countries. This study uses data from the Philippines to assess trends in the prevalence and distribution of child mortality and to evaluate the country’s socioeconomic-related child health inequality. Methodology Using data from four Demographic and Health Surveys we estimated levels and trends of neonatal, infant, and under-five mortality from 1990 to 2007. Mortality estimates at national and subnational levels were produced using both direct and indirect methods. Concentration indices were computed to measure child health inequality by wealth status. Multivariate regression analyses were used to assess the contribution of interventions and socioeconomic factors to wealth-related inequality. Findings Despite substantial reductions in national under-five and infant mortality rates in the early 1990s, the rates of declines have slowed in recent years and neonatal mortality rates remain stubbornly high. Substantial variations across urban-rural, regional, and wealth equity-markers are evident, and suggest that the gaps between the best and worst performing sub-populations will either be maintained or widen in the future. Of the variables tested, recent wealth-related inequalities are found to be strongly associated with social factors (e.g. maternal education), regional location, and access to health services, such as facility-based delivery. Conclusion The Philippines has achieved substantial progress towards Millennium Development Goal 4, but this success masks substantial inequalities and stagnating neonatal mortality trends. This analysis supports a focus on health interventions of high quality – that is, not just facility-based delivery, but delivery by trained staff at well-functioning facilities and supported by a strong referral system – to re-start the long term decline in neonatal mortality and to reduce persistent within-country inequalities in child health. PMID:23308278

Modeling Longitudinal Changes in Older Adults’ Memory for Spoken Discourse: Findings from the ACTIVE Cohort

PubMed Central

Payne, Brennan R.; Gross, Alden L.; Parisi, Jeanine M.; Sisco, Shannon M.; Stine-Morrow, Elizabeth A. L.; Marsiske, Michael; Rebok, George W.

2014-01-01

Episodic memory shows substantial declines with advancing age, but research on longitudinal trajectories of spoken discourse memory (SDM) in older adulthood is limited. Using parallel process latent growth curve models, we examined 10 years of longitudinal data from the no-contact control group (N = 698) of the Advanced Cognitive Training for Independent and Vital Elderly (ACTIVE) randomized controlled trial in order to test (a) the degree to which SDM declines with advancing age, (b) predictors of these age-related declines, and (c) the within-person relationship between longitudinal changes in SDM and longitudinal changes in fluid reasoning and verbal ability over 10 years, independent of age. Individuals who were younger, White, had more years of formal education, were male, and had better global cognitive function and episodic memory performance at baseline demonstrated greater levels of SDM on average. However, only age at baseline uniquely predicted longitudinal changes in SDM, such that declines accelerated with greater age. Independent of age, within-person decline in reasoning ability over the 10-year study period was substantially correlated with decline in SDM (r = .87). An analogous association with SDM did not hold for verbal ability. The findings suggest that longitudinal declines in fluid cognition are associated with reduced spoken language comprehension. Unlike findings from memory for written prose, preserved verbal ability may not protect against developmental declines in memory for speech. PMID:24304364

Microsatellite Analysis of Museum Specimens Reveals Historical Differences in Genetic Diversity between Declining and More Stable Bombus Species.

PubMed

Maebe, Kevin; Meeus, Ivan; Ganne, Maarten; De Meulemeester, Thibaut; Biesmeijer, Koos; Smagghe, Guy

2015-01-01

Worldwide most pollinators, e.g. bumblebees, are undergoing global declines. Loss of genetic diversity can play an essential role in these observed declines. In this paper, we investigated the level of genetic diversity of seven declining Bombus species and four more stable species with the use of microsatellite loci. Hereto we genotyped a unique collection of museum specimens. Specimens were collected between 1918 and 1926, in 6 provinces of the Netherlands which allowed us to make interspecific comparisons of genetic diversity. For the stable species B. pascuorum, we also selected populations from two additional time periods: 1949-1955 and 1975-1990. The genetic diversity and population structure in B. pascuorum remained constant over the three time periods. However, populations of declining bumblebee species showed a significantly lower genetic diversity than co-occurring stable species before their major declines. This historical difference indicates that the repeatedly observed reduced genetic diversity in recent populations of declining bumblebee species is not caused solely by the decline itself. The historically low genetic diversity in the declined species may be due to the fact that these species were already rare, making them more vulnerable to the major drivers of bumblebee decline.

Population trends from the American woodcock singing-ground survey, 1970-88

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sauer, J.R.; Bortner, J.B.

1991-01-01

Population trend analysis of American woodcook (Scolopax minor) using data from a singing-ground survey indicates population declines throughout the breeding range of the species between 1970 and 1988. In the eastern United States and Canada, this decline has been quite consistent throughout the period, but in the central portion of the continent the population increased during the 1970's and declined during the early 1980's. Observers differ in their ability to hear woodcock, and we document observer differences in the singing-ground survey data and incorporate them into our analyses. Habitat changes have been suggested as the most likely cause of declines in woodcock populations.

Predation by coyotes on white-tailed deer neonates in South Carolina

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kilgo, John C.; Ray, H. Scott; Vukovich, Mark

2012-05-07

Abstract: Coyotes (Canis latrans) are novel predators throughout the southeastern United States and their depredation of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) neonates may explain observed declines in some deer populations in the region, but direct evidence for such a relationship is lacking. Our objective was to quantify neonate survival rates and causes of mortality at the United States Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS), South Carolina to directly evaluate degree of predation in this deer population. From 2006 to 2009, we radio-monitored 91 neonates captured with the aid of vaginal implant transmitters in pregnant adult females and opportunistic searches. Overallmore » Kaplan Meier survival rate to 16 weeks of age was 0.230 (95% CI = 0.155-0.328), and it varied little among years. Our best-fitting model estimated survival at 0.220 (95% CI = 0.144-0.320). This model included a quadratic time trend variable (lowest survival rate during the first week of life and increasing to near 1.000 around week 10), and Julian date of birth (survival probability declining as date of birth increased). Predation by coyotes was the most frequent cause of death among the 70 monitored neonates that died, definitively accounting for 37% of all mortalities and potentially accounting for as much as 80% when also including probable coyote predation. Predation by bobcats (Felis rufus) accounted for 7% (definitive) to 9% (including probable bobcat predation) of mortalities. The level of coyote-induced mortality we observed is consistent with the low recruitment rates exhibited in the SRS deer population since establishment of coyotes at the site. If representative of recruitment rates across South Carolina, current harvest levels appear unsustainable. This understanding is consistent with the recent declining trend in the statewide deer population. The effects of coyote predation on recruitment should be considered when setting harvest goals, regardless of whether local deer population size is currently above or below desired levels, because coyotes can substantially reduce fawn recruitment. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.« less

Mitigating road mortality of diamond-backed terrapins (Malaclemy's terrapin) with hybrid barriers at crossing hot spots

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crawford, Brian A.; Moore, Clinton; Norton, Terry M.; Maerz, John C.

2017-01-01

Roads represent a pervasive feature on most landscapes that can pose multiple threats to wildlife populations and substantial challenges for management. To be effective, management strategies must often target where threats are most concentrated. Road mortality and nest predation are well-documented threats to Diamond-backed Terrapins (Malaclemys terrapin) across the majority of their range, including the 8.7-km causeway to Jekyll Island, Georgia, USA, where both are predicted to contribute to population declines if left unmitigated. From 2009 to 2014, we used intensive road surveying to identify spatial peaks (hot spots) of terrapin crossing activity and road mortality and exploit these as targets for management. In 2011, we deployed a hybrid barrier composed of nest boxes, which were designed to prevent terrapins from accessing the road and mitigate nest predation, at one hot spot while leaving two other hot spots unmanaged. We evaluated the impact of the barrier on terrapin emergences on the causeway under a Before-After-Control-Impact (BACI) design, and a companion study evaluated the effects of nest boxes on nest predation rates. We estimated a 57% reduction in annual terrapin emergences at the barrier site compared to no measurable change at control hot spots. Our findings support the use of hybrid barriers for simultaneously addressing road mortality and nest predation for other terrapin populations at risk to these threats. Our approach highlights the need to design feasible but robust management strategies that target spatial peaks of road mortality while addressing additional threats contributing to population declines of terrapins and other species.

Trends in the leading causes of injury mortality, Australia, Canada and the United States, 2000–2014

PubMed Central

Mack, Karin A.; Clapperton, Angela J.; Macpherson, Alison; Sleet, David; Newton, Donovan; Murdoch, James; Mackay, J. Morag; Berecki-Gisolf, Janneke; Wilkins, Wilkins; Marr, Angela; Ballesteros, Michael F.; McClure, Roderick

2018-01-01

OBJECTIVES The aim of this study was to highlight the differences in injury rates between populations through a descriptive epidemiological study of population-level trends in injury mortality for the high-income countries of Australia, Canada and the United States. METHODS Mortality data were available for the US from 2000 to 2014, and for Canada and Australia from 2000 to 2012. Injury causes were defined using the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision external cause codes, and were grouped into major causes. Rates were direct-method age-adjusted using the US 2000 projected population as the standard age distribution. RESULTS US motor vehicle injury mortality rates declined from 2000 to 2014 but remained markedly higher than those of Australia or Canada. In all three countries, fall injury mortality rates increased from 2000 to 2014. US homicide mortality rates declined, but remained higher than those of Australia and Canada. While the US had the lowest suicide rate in 2000, it increased by 24% during 2000–2014, and by 2012 was about 14% higher than that in Australia and Canada. The poisoning mortality rate in the US increased dramatically from 2000 to 2014. CONCLUSION Results show marked differences and striking similarities in injury mortality between the countries and within countries over time. The observed trends differed by injury cause category. The substantial differences in injury rates between similarly resourced populations raises important questions about the role of societal-level factors as underlying causes of the differential distribution of injury in our communities. PMID:28621655

New hypothesis helps explain elasmobranch "outburst" on Georges Bank in the 1980s.

PubMed

Frisk, M G; Miller, T J; Martell, S J D; Sosebee, K

2008-01-01

Regime shifts are a feature of many ecosystems. During the last 40 years, intensive commercial exploitation and environmental changes have driven substantial shifts in ecosystem structure and function in the northwest Atlantic. In the Georges Bank-southern New England region, commercially important species have declined, and the ecosystem shifted to one dominated by economically undesirable species such as skates and dogfish. Aggregated abundance indices indicate a large increase of small and medium-sized elasmobranchs in the early 1980s following the decline of many commercial species. It has been hypothesized that ecological interactions such as competition and predation within the Georges Bank region were responsible for and are maintaining the "elasmobranch outburst" at the heart of the observed ecosystem shift. We offer an alternative hypothesis invoking population connectivity among winter skate populations such that the observed abundance increase is a result of migratory dynamics, perhaps with the Scotian Shelf (i.e., it is an open population). Here we critically evaluate the survey data for winter skate, the species principally responsible for the increase in total skate abundance during the 1980s on Georges Bank, to assess support for both hypotheses. We show that time series from different surveys within the Georges Bank region exhibit low coherence, indicating that a widespread population increase was not consistently shown by all surveys. Further, we argue that observed length-frequency data for Georges Bank indicate biologically unrealistic population fluctuations if the population is closed. Neither finding supports the elasmobranch outburst hypothesis. In contrast, survey time series for Georges Bank and the Scotian Shelf are negatively correlated, in support of the population connectivity hypothesis. Further, we argue that understanding the mechanisms of ecosystem state changes and population connectivity are needed to make inferences about both the causes and appropriate management responses to large-scale system change.

Endless urban growth? On the mismatch of population, household and urban land area growth and its effects on the urban debate.

PubMed

Haase, Dagmar; Kabisch, Nadja; Haase, Annegret

2013-01-01

In European cities, the rate of population growth has declined significantly, while the number of households has increased. This increase in the number of households is associated with an increase in space for housing. To date, the effects of both a declining population and decreasing household numbers remain unclear. In this paper, we analyse the relationship between population and household number development in 188 European cities from 1990-2000 and 2000-2006 to the growth of urban land area and per capita living space. Our results support a trend toward decreasing population with simultaneously increasing household number. However, we also found cites facing both a declining population and a decreasing household number. Nevertheless, the urban land area of these "double-declining" cities has continued to spread because the increasing per capita living space counteracts a reduction in land consumption. We conclude that neither a decline in population nor in household number "automatically" solve the global problem of land consumption.

Full Mitogenomes in the Critically Endangered Kākāpō Reveal Major Post-Glacial and Anthropogenic Effects on Neutral Genetic Diversity.

PubMed

Dussex, Nicolas; von Seth, Johanna; Robertson, Bruce C; Dalén, Love

2018-04-19

Understanding how species respond to population declines is a central question in conservation and evolutionary biology. Population declines are often associated with loss of genetic diversity, inbreeding and accumulation of deleterious mutations, which can lead to a reduction in fitness and subsequently contribute to extinction. Using temporal approaches can help us understand the effects of population declines on genetic diversity in real time. Sequencing pre-decline as well as post-decline mitogenomes representing all the remaining mitochondrial diversity, we estimated the loss of genetic diversity in the critically endangered kākāpō ( Strigops habroptilus ). We detected a signal of population expansion coinciding with the end of the Pleistocene last glacial maximum (LGM). Also, we found some evidence for northern and southern lineages, supporting the hypothesis that the species may have been restricted to isolated northern and southern refugia during the LGM. We observed an important loss of neutral genetic diversity associated with European settlement in New Zealand but we could not exclude a population decline associated with Polynesian settlement in New Zealand. However, we did not find evidence for fixation of deleterious mutations. We argue that despite high pre-decline genetic diversity, a rapid and range-wide decline combined with the lek mating system, and life-history traits of kākāpō contributed to a rapid loss of genetic diversity following severe population declines.

Physiological condition of bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of the population cycle.

PubMed

Nieminen, Petteri; Huitu, Otso; Henttonen, Heikki; Finnilä, Mikko A J; Voutilainen, Liina; Itämies, Juhani; Kärjä, Vesa; Saarela, Seppo; Halonen, Toivo; Aho, Jari; Mustonen, Anne-Mari

2015-09-01

The dynamics of animal populations are greatly influenced by interactions with their natural enemies and food resources. However, quantifying the relative effects of these factors on demographic rates remains a perpetual challenge for animal population ecology. Food scarcity is assumed to limit the growth and to initiate the decline of cyclic herbivore populations, but this has not been verified with physiological health indices. We hypothesized that individuals in declining populations would exhibit signs of malnutrition-induced deterioration of physiological condition. We evaluated the association of body condition with population cycle phase in bank voles (Myodes glareolus) during the increase and decline phases of a population cycle. The bank voles had lower body masses, condition indices and absolute masses of particular organs during the decline. Simultaneously, they had lower femoral masses, mineral contents and densities. Hemoglobin and hematocrit values and several parameters known to respond to food deprivation were unaffected by the population phase. There were no signs of lymphopenia, eosinophilia, granulocytosis or monocytosis. Erythrocyte counts were higher and plasma total protein levels and tissue proportions of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids lower in the population decline. Ectoparasite load was lower and adrenal gland masses or catecholamine concentrations did not suggest higher stress levels. Food availability seems to limit the size of voles during the decline but they can adapt to the prevailing conditions without clear deleterious health effects. This highlights the importance of quantifying individual health state when evaluating the effects of complex trophic interactions on the dynamics of wild animal populations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Stroke declines from third to fourth leading cause of death in the United States: historical perspective and challenges ahead.

PubMed

Towfighi, Amytis; Saver, Jeffrey L

2011-08-01

Stroke recently declined from the third to the fourth leading cause of death in the United States, its first rank transition among sources of American mortality in nearly 75 years. This is a narrative review supplemented by new analyses of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention National Vital Statistics Reports from 1931 to 2008. Historically, stroke transitioned from the second to the third leading cause of death in the United States in 1937, but stroke death rates were essentially stable from 1930 to 1960. Then a long, great decline began, moderate in the 1960s, precipitous in the 1970s and 1980s, and moderate again in the 1990s and 2000s. By 2008, age-adjusted annual death rates from stroke were three fourths less than the historic 1931 to 1960 norm (40.6 versus 175.0 per 100,000). Total actual stroke deaths in the United States declined from a high of 214,000 in 1973 to 134,000 in 2008. Improved stroke prevention, through control of hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and tobacco, contributed most greatly to the mortality decline with a lesser but still substantial contribution of improved acute stroke care. Persisting challenges include race-ethnicity, sex, and geographic disparities in stroke mortality; the burden of stroke disability; the expanding obesity epidemic and aging of the US population; and the epidemic of cerebrovascular disease in low- and middle-income countries worldwide. The recent rank decline of stroke among leading causes of American death is testament to a half century of societal progress in cerebrovascular disease prevention and acute care. Renewed commitments are needed to preserve and broaden this historic achievement.

Projected risk of population declines for native fish species in the Upper Mississippi River

USGS Publications Warehouse

Crimmins, S.M.; Boma, P.; Thogmartin, W.E.

2015-01-01

Conservationists are in need of objective metrics for prioritizing the management of habitats. For individual species, the threat of extinction is often used to prioritize what species are in need of conservation action. Using long-term monitoring data, we applied a Bayesian diffusion approximation to estimate quasi-extinction risk for 54 native fish species within six commercial navigation reaches along a 1350-km gradient of the upper Mississippi River system. We found a strong negative linear relationship between quasi-extinction risk and distance upstream. For some species, quasi-extinction estimates ranged from nearly zero in some reaches to one in others, suggesting substantial variability in threats facing individual river reaches. We found no evidence that species traits affected quasi-extinction risk across the entire system. Our results indicate that fishes within the upper Mississippi River system face localized threats that vary across river impact gradients. This suggests that conservation actions should be focused on local habitat scales but should also consider the additive effects on downstream conditions. We also emphasize the need for identification of proximate mechanisms behind observed and predicted population declines, as conservation actions will require mitigation of such mechanisms. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Sea otter population declines in the Aleutian Archipelago

USGS Publications Warehouse

Doroff, Angela M.; Estes, James A.; Tinker, M. Tim; Burn, Douglas M.; Evans, Thomas J.

2003-01-01

Sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations were exploited to near extinction and began to recover after the cessation of commercial hunting in 1911. Remnant colonies of sea otters in the Aleutian archipelago were among the first to recover; they continued to increase through the 1980s but declined abruptly during the 1990s. We conducted an aerial survey of the Aleutian archipelago in 2000 and compared results with similar surveys conducted in 1965 and 1992. The number of sea otters counted decreased by 75% between 1965 and 2000; 88% for islands at equilibrial density in 1965. The population decline likely began in the mid-1980s and declined at a rate of 17.5%/year in the 1990s. The minimal population estimate was 8,742 sea otters in 2000. The population declined to a uniformly low density in the archipelago, suggesting a common and geographically widespread cause. These data are in general agreement with the hypothesis of increased predation on sea otters. These data chronicle one of the most widespread and precipitous population declines for a mammalian carnivore in recorded history.

Trends in Infectious Disease Mortality, South Korea, 1983–2015

PubMed Central

Choe, Young June; Choe, Seung-Ah

2018-01-01

We used national statistics from 1983–2015 to evaluate trends in mortality caused by infectious diseases in South Korea. Age-standardized mortality from infectious disease decreased from 43.5/100,000 population in 1983 to 16.5/100,000 in 1996, and then increased to 44.6/100,000 in 2015. Tuberculosis was the most common cause of death in 1983 and respiratory tract infections in 2015. We observed a significant decline in infant deaths caused by infectious diseases, but mortality in persons age >65 years increased from 135 deaths/100,000 population in 1996 to 307/100,000 in 2015. The relative inequality indices for respiratory tract infections, sepsis, and tuberculosis tended to increase over time. Although substantial progress has been achieved in terms of infant mortality, death rates from infectious disease has not decreased overall. Elderly populations with lower education levels and subgroups susceptible to respiratory infections and sepsis should be the focus of preventive policies. PMID:29350153

Alcohol and Sexuality Research in the AIDS Era: Trends in Publication Activity, Target Populations and Research Design

PubMed Central

George, William H.

2009-01-01

Research addressing relationships between alcohol and human sexuality has proliferated, due in part to efforts to characterize alcohol's role in HIV risk behavior. This study provides a descriptive review of the alcohol–sexuality literature, using abstracts from 264 identified studies to estimate changes in publication activity, target populations, and the prevalence of HIV-related studies over time. We also examine methodological trends by estimating the prevalence of experimental vs. non-experimental studies. Findings show considerable increases in research activity and diversity of populations studied since the mid-1980's and highlight the emergence of HIV-related studies as a focal point of alcohol–sexuality research efforts. Results also demonstrate a substantial decline in the proportion of studies utilizing experimental methods, in part because of frequent use of non-experimental approaches in studies of alcohol and HIV risk behavior. We discuss implications and review the role of experiments in evaluating causal relationships between alcohol and sexual risk behavior. PMID:16897352

Alcohol and sexuality research in the AIDS era: trends in publication activity, target populations and research design.

PubMed

Hendershot, Christian S; George, William H

2007-03-01

Research addressing relationships between alcohol and human sexuality has proliferated, due in part to efforts to characterize alcohol's role in HIV risk behavior. This study provides a descriptive review of the alcohol-sexuality literature, using abstracts from 264 identified studies to estimate changes in publication activity, target populations, and the prevalence of HIV-related studies over time. We also examine methodological trends by estimating the prevalence of experimental vs. non-experimental studies. Findings show considerable increases in research activity and diversity of populations studied since the mid-1980's and highlight the emergence of HIV-related studies as a focal point of alcohol-sexuality research efforts. Results also demonstrate a substantial decline in the proportion of studies utilizing experimental methods, in part because of frequent use of non-experimental approaches in studies of alcohol and HIV risk behavior. We discuss implications and review the role of experiments in evaluating causal relationships between alcohol and sexual risk behavior.

Taimyr Reindeer and Environmental Change: Monitoring Wild Reindeer Migration in Changing Natural and Social Environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Petrov, A. N.

2016-12-01

The Taimyr Reindeer Herd (TRH) is both the largest and the longest monitored wild reindeer herd in Eurasia. An important part of Arctic ecosystems and Indigenous livelihood, wild reindeer have been continuously monitored for almost 50 years. During this time, herds have exhibited large changes in size and these changes have been recorded in almost all herds across the animal's range. An increasing number of wild reindeer in the Soviet times was followed by a significant population loss in the last decade. In addition, recent monitoring revealed substantial shifts in the distribution of wild populations. The decline in wild reindeer is likely related to natural cycles and changes in the Arctic environment caused by climate variability and anthropogenic activity. This study investigates patterns and possible drives of reindeer population dynamics in space and time. We identify key climatic factors, possible relationships with biomass dynamics, as well as with hunting practices and other human impacts.

Extinction risk and conservation of the world’s sharks and rays

PubMed Central

Dulvy, Nicholas K; Fowler, Sarah L; Musick, John A; Cavanagh, Rachel D; Kyne, Peter M; Harrison, Lucy R; Carlson, John K; Davidson, Lindsay NK; Fordham, Sonja V; Francis, Malcolm P; Pollock, Caroline M; Simpfendorfer, Colin A; Burgess, George H; Carpenter, Kent E; Compagno, Leonard JV; Ebert, David A; Gibson, Claudine; Heupel, Michelle R; Livingstone, Suzanne R; Sanciangco, Jonnell C; Stevens, John D; Valenti, Sarah; White, William T

2014-01-01

The rapid expansion of human activities threatens ocean-wide biodiversity. Numerous marine animal populations have declined, yet it remains unclear whether these trends are symptomatic of a chronic accumulation of global marine extinction risk. We present the first systematic analysis of threat for a globally distributed lineage of 1,041 chondrichthyan fishes—sharks, rays, and chimaeras. We estimate that one-quarter are threatened according to IUCN Red List criteria due to overfishing (targeted and incidental). Large-bodied, shallow-water species are at greatest risk and five out of the seven most threatened families are rays. Overall chondrichthyan extinction risk is substantially higher than for most other vertebrates, and only one-third of species are considered safe. Population depletion has occurred throughout the world’s ice-free waters, but is particularly prevalent in the Indo-Pacific Biodiversity Triangle and Mediterranean Sea. Improved management of fisheries and trade is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and promote population recovery. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00590.001 PMID:24448405

Extinction risk and conservation of the world's sharks and rays.

PubMed

Dulvy, Nicholas K; Fowler, Sarah L; Musick, John A; Cavanagh, Rachel D; Kyne, Peter M; Harrison, Lucy R; Carlson, John K; Davidson, Lindsay Nk; Fordham, Sonja V; Francis, Malcolm P; Pollock, Caroline M; Simpfendorfer, Colin A; Burgess, George H; Carpenter, Kent E; Compagno, Leonard Jv; Ebert, David A; Gibson, Claudine; Heupel, Michelle R; Livingstone, Suzanne R; Sanciangco, Jonnell C; Stevens, John D; Valenti, Sarah; White, William T

2014-01-01

The rapid expansion of human activities threatens ocean-wide biodiversity. Numerous marine animal populations have declined, yet it remains unclear whether these trends are symptomatic of a chronic accumulation of global marine extinction risk. We present the first systematic analysis of threat for a globally distributed lineage of 1,041 chondrichthyan fishes-sharks, rays, and chimaeras. We estimate that one-quarter are threatened according to IUCN Red List criteria due to overfishing (targeted and incidental). Large-bodied, shallow-water species are at greatest risk and five out of the seven most threatened families are rays. Overall chondrichthyan extinction risk is substantially higher than for most other vertebrates, and only one-third of species are considered safe. Population depletion has occurred throughout the world's ice-free waters, but is particularly prevalent in the Indo-Pacific Biodiversity Triangle and Mediterranean Sea. Improved management of fisheries and trade is urgently needed to avoid extinctions and promote population recovery. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.00590.001.

Activity restriction induced by fear of falling and objective and subjective measures of physical function: a prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Deshpande, Nandini; Metter, E Jeffrey; Lauretani, Fulvio; Bandinelli, Stefania; Guralnik, Jack; Ferrucci, Luigi

2008-04-01

To examine whether activity restriction specifically induced by fear of falling (FF) contributes to greater risk of disability and decline in physical function. Prospective cohort study. Population-based older cohort. Six hundred seventy-three community-living elderly (> or = 65) participants in the Invecchiare in Chianti Study who reported FF. FF, fear-induced activity restriction, cognition, depressive symptoms, comorbidities, smoking history, and demographic factors were assessed at baseline. Disability in activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and performance on the Short Performance Physical Battery (SPPB) were evaluated at baseline and at the 3-year follow-up. One-quarter (25.5%) of participants did not report any activity restriction, 59.6% reported moderate activity restriction (restriction or avoidance of < 3 activities), and 14.9% reported severe activity restriction (restriction or avoidance of > or = 3 activities). The severe restriction group reported significantly higher IADL disability and worse SPPB scores than the no restriction and moderate restriction groups. Severe activity restriction was a significant independent predictor of worsening ADL disability and accelerated decline in lower extremity performance on SPPB over the 3-year follow-up. Severe and moderate activity restriction were independent predictors of worsening IADL disability. Results were consistent even after adjusting for multiple potential confounders. In an elderly population, activity restriction associated with FF is an independent predictor of decline in physical function. Future intervention studies in geriatric preventive care should directly address risk factors associated with FF and activity restriction to substantiate long-term effects on physical abilities and autonomy of older persons.

Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations

PubMed Central

Aitken, Sally N; Yeaman, Sam; Holliday, Jason A; Wang, Tongli; Curtis-McLane, Sierra

2008-01-01

Abstract Species distribution models predict a wholesale redistribution of trees in the next century, yet migratory responses necessary to spatially track climates far exceed maximum post-glacial rates. The extent to which populations will adapt will depend upon phenotypic variation, strength of selection, fecundity, interspecific competition, and biotic interactions. Populations of temperate and boreal trees show moderate to strong clines in phenology and growth along temperature gradients, indicating substantial local adaptation. Traits involved in local adaptation appear to be the product of small effects of many genes, and the resulting genotypic redundancy combined with high fecundity may facilitate rapid local adaptation despite high gene flow. Gene flow with preadapted alleles from warmer climates may promote adaptation and migration at the leading edge, while populations at the rear will likely face extirpation. Widespread species with large populations and high fecundity are likely to persist and adapt, but will likely suffer adaptational lag for a few generations. As all tree species will be suffering lags, interspecific competition may weaken, facilitating persistence under suboptimal conditions. Species with small populations, fragmented ranges, low fecundity, or suffering declines due to introduced insects or diseases should be candidates for facilitated migration. PMID:25567494

Predicting the effects of copper on local population decline of 2 marine organisms, cobia fish and whiteleg shrimp, based on avoidance response.

PubMed

Araújo, Cristiano V M; Cedeño-Macías, Luís A; Vera-Vera, Victoria C; Salvatierra, David; Rodríguez, Elizabeth N V; Zambrano, Ufredo; Kuri, Samir

2016-02-01

The present study focuses on avoidance response to predict population decline of the marine fish Rachycentron canadum (cobia) and larvae of the estuarine shrimp Litopenaeus vannamei (whiteleg shrimp). Avoidance of approximately 60% was recorded for the cobia fry exposed to 1.0 mg Cu/L, 1.60 mg Cu/L, and 1.80 mg Cu/L. For the shrimp larvae, avoidance was approximately 80% for all Cu concentrations. The population decline of cobia fry was conditioned by avoidance in lower concentrations. However, in higher concentrations mortality begins to play an important role. The displacement toward uncontaminated habitats might determine shrimp population decline. A Cu-contaminated environment can determine the habitat selection of both species and, therefore, their local population decline. © 2015 SETAC.

Worldwide status of burbot and conservation measures

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, Martin A.; Paragamian, Vaughn L.; Madenjian, Charles P.; Jackson, James R.; Lappalainen, Jyrki; Evenson, Matthew J.; Neufeld, Matthew D.

2010-01-01

Although burbot (Lota lota Gadidae) are widespread and abundant throughout much of their natural range, there are many populations that have been extirpated, endangered or are in serious decline. Due in part to the species’ lack of popularity as a game and commercial fish, few regions consider burbot in management plans. We review the worldwide population status of burbot and synthesize reasons why some burbot populations are endangered or declining, some burbot populations have recovered and some burbot populations do not recover despite management measures. Burbot have been extirpated in much of Western Europe and the United Kingdom and are threatened or endangered in much of North America and Eurasia. Pollution and habitat change, particularly the effects of dams, appear to be the main causes for declines in riverine burbot populations. Pollution and the adverse effects of invasive species appear to be the main reasons for declines in lacustrine populations. Warmer water temperatures, due either to discharge from dams or climate change, have been noted in declining burbot populations at the southern extent of their range. Currently, fishing pressure does not appear to be limiting burbot populations world-wide. We suggest mitigation measures for burbot population recovery, particularly those impacted by dams and invasive species.

[Rural depopulation: 1954-1990].

PubMed

Chauvel, L

1994-10-01

"The purpose of this paper is to present evidence for a long term link between employment and population [in rural France]. A model is built in order to describe the interaction between employment, migration and natural population increase over 1962-1990. This shows how declining departments are bound within a vicious mechanism: while the decline of local employment leads to population outflow, the population decline contributes to a further employment fall." (SUMMARY IN ENG) excerpt

The wealth of distinguished doctors: retrospective survey.

PubMed

McManus, I C

2005-12-24

To assess changes in the wealth of distinguished doctors in the United Kingdom between 1860 and 2001. Retrospective survey. The UK. 980 doctors of sufficient distinction to be included in the Oxford Dictionary of National Biography and who died between 1860 and 2001. Wealth at death, based on probate records and adjusted relative to average earnings in 2002. The wealth of distinguished doctors declined substantially between 1860 and 2001, and paralleled a decline in the relative income of doctors in general. The wealth of distinguished doctors also declined relative to other groups of distinguished individuals. In the 19th century, distinction in doctors was accompanied by substantial wealth, whereas by the end of the 20th century, the most distinguished doctors were less wealthy than their contemporaries who had achieved national distinction in other areas.

Declining financial capacity in patients with mild Alzheimer disease: a one-year longitudinal study.

PubMed

Martin, Roy; Griffith, H Randall; Belue, Katherine; Harrell, Lindy; Zamrini, Edward; Anderson, Britt; Bartolucci, Alfred; Marson, Daniel

2008-03-01

The objective of this study was to investigate change over time in financial abilities in patients with mild Alzheimer disease (AD). The authors conducted a prospective 1-year longitudinal study at a large southern U.S. metropolitan-area medical school university. Participants included healthy older adults (N=63) and patients with mild AD (N=55). The authors conducted a standardized performance measure of financial capacity. Performance was assessed on 18 financial tasks, nine domains of financial activity, and overall financial capacity. Capacity outcomes classifications (capable, marginally capable, or incapable) for domains and overall performance were made using cut scores referenced to comparison group performance. At baseline, patients with mild AD performed significantly below healthy older adults on 16 of 18 tasks, on all nine domains, and on overall financial capacity. At one-year follow up, comparison group performance was stable on all variables. In contrast, patients with mild AD showed substantial declines in overall financial capacity, on eight of nine domains, and on 12 of 18 tasks. Similarly, the proportion of the mild AD group classified as marginally capable and incapable increased substantially over one year for the two overall scores and for five financial domains. Financial capacity is already substantially impaired in patients with mild AD at baseline and undergoes rapid additional decline over one year. Relative to the comparison group, overall financial capacity performance in the AD group declined 10%, from approximately 80% of the comparison group performance at baseline to 70% at follow up. Financial skills showed differential rates of decline on both simple and complex tasks. Of clinical and public policy interest was the declining judgment of patients with mild AD regarding simple fraud schemes. The study supports the importance of prompt financial supervision and planning for patients newly diagnosed with AD.

An analysis of social consequences of rapid fertility decline in China.

PubMed

Liu, Z; Liu, L

1988-12-01

Rapid fertility decline in China has brought about 2 direct effects: 1) the natural increase of the population has slowed down, and 2) the age structure has changed from the young to the adult type. These 2 effects have caused a series of economic and social consequences. Rapid fertility decline increases the gross national product per capita and accelerates the improvement of people's lives. Rapid fertility decline slows population growth and speeds up the accumulation of capital and the development of the economy. Since 1981, accumulation growth has exceeded consumption growth. Fertility decline alleviates the enrollment pressure on primary and secondary schools, raises the efficiency of education funds, and promotes the popularization of education. The family planning program strengthens the maternal and child health care and the medical care systems. As the result of economic development, the people's nutritional levels are improving. The physical quality of teenagers has improved steadily. The change in the age structure will alleviate the tension of rapid population growth and benefit population control in the next century. Fertility decline forces the traditional attitude toward childbearing from "more children, more happiness" to improved quality of children. The rapid fertility decline has caused a great deal of concern both inside and outside China about the aging of the population. The labor force, however, will continue to grow for the next 60 years. At present, China's population problems are still those of population growth.

Beyond the disease: Is Toxoplasma gondii infection causing population declines in the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus)?

PubMed Central

Fancourt, Bronwyn A.; Nicol, Stewart C.; Hawkins, Clare E.; Jones, Menna E.; Johnson, Chris N.

2014-01-01

Disease is often considered a key threat to species of conservation significance. For some, it has resulted in localised extinctions and declines in range and abundance. However, for some species, the assertion that a disease poses a significant threat of extinction is based solely on correlative or anecdotal evidence, often inferred from individual clinical case reports. While a species’ susceptibility to a disease may be demonstrated in a number of individuals, investigations rarely extend to measuring the impact of disease at the population level and its contribution, if any, to population declines. The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that is undergoing severe and rapid decline in Tasmania, its last refuge. Reasons for the decline are currently not understood. Feral cats (Felis catus) may be undergoing competitive release following the ongoing decline of the Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), with cats suppressing eastern quolls through increased predation, competition, exclusion or exposure to diseases such as toxoplasmosis. To investigate the effects of Toxoplasma gondii infection, eastern quoll populations at four sites were regularly screened for the seroprevalence of T. gondii-specific IgG antibodies. Seroprevalence was approximately five times higher at sites with declining quoll populations, and there was a negative association between seroprevalence and quoll abundance. However, T. gondii infection did not reduce quoll survival or reproduction. Despite a high susceptibility to T. gondii infection, eastern quoll populations do not appear to be limited by the parasite or its resultant disease. Significantly higher seroprevalence is a signal of greater exposure to feral cats at sites where eastern quolls are declining, suggesting that increased predation, competition or exclusion by feral cats may be precipitating population declines. PMID:25161908

Trends in Acute Nonvariceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding in Dialysis Patients

PubMed Central

Yang, Ju-Yeh; Lee, Tsung-Chun; Montez-Rath, Maria E.; Paik, Jane; Chertow, Glenn M.; Desai, Manisha

2012-01-01

Impaired kidney function is a risk factor for upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding, an event associated with poor outcomes. The burden of upper GI bleeding and its effect on patients with ESRD are not well described. Using data from the US Renal Data System, we quantified the rates of occurrence of and associated 30-day mortality from acute, nonvariceal upper GI bleeding in patients undergoing dialysis; we used medical claims and previously validated algorithms where available. Overall, 948,345 patients contributed 2,296,323 patient-years for study. The occurrence rates for upper GI bleeding were 57 and 328 episodes per 1000 person-years according to stringent and lenient definitions of acute, nonvariceal upper GI bleeding, respectively. Unadjusted occurrence rates remained flat (stringent) or increased (lenient) from 1997 to 2008; after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics and comorbid conditions, however, we found a significant decline for both definitions (linear approximation, 2.7% and 1.5% per year, respectively; P<0.001). In more recent years, patients had higher hematocrit levels before upper GI bleeding episodes and were more likely to receive blood transfusions during an episode. Overall 30-day mortality was 11.8%, which declined significantly over time (relative declines of 2.3% or 2.8% per year for the stringent and lenient definitions, respectively). In summary, despite declining trends worldwide, crude rates of acute, nonvariceal upper GI bleeding among patients undergoing dialysis have not decreased in the past 10 years. Although 30-day mortality related to upper GI bleeding declined, perhaps reflecting improvements in medical care, the burden on the ESRD population remains substantial. PMID:22266666

Estimating the population-level impact of vaccines using synthetic controls

PubMed Central

Bruhn, Christian A. W.; Hetterich, Stephen; Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Kürüm, Esra; Taylor, Robert J.; Lustig, Roger; Shapiro, Eugene D.; Warren, Joshua L.; Weinberger, Daniel M.

2017-01-01

When a new vaccine is introduced, it is critical to monitor trends in disease rates to ensure that the vaccine is effective and to quantify its impact. However, estimates from observational studies can be confounded by unrelated changes in healthcare utilization, changes in the underlying health of the population, or changes in reporting. Other diseases are often used to detect and adjust for these changes, but choosing an appropriate control disease a priori is a major challenge. The “synthetic controls” (causal impact) method, which was originally developed for website analytics and social sciences, provides an appealing solution. With this approach, potential comparison time series are combined into a composite and are used to generate a counterfactual estimate, which can be compared with the time series of interest after the intervention. We sought to estimate changes in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia associated with the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in five countries in the Americas. Using synthetic controls, we found a substantial decline in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in infants in all five countries (average of 20%), whereas estimates for young and middle-aged adults varied by country and were potentially influenced by the 2009 influenza pandemic. In contrast to previous reports, we did not detect a decline in all-cause pneumonia in older adults in any country. Synthetic controls promise to increase the accuracy of studies of vaccine impact and to increase comparability of results between populations compared with alternative approaches. PMID:28154145

Estimating the population-level impact of vaccines using synthetic controls.

PubMed

Bruhn, Christian A W; Hetterich, Stephen; Schuck-Paim, Cynthia; Kürüm, Esra; Taylor, Robert J; Lustig, Roger; Shapiro, Eugene D; Warren, Joshua L; Simonsen, Lone; Weinberger, Daniel M

2017-02-14

When a new vaccine is introduced, it is critical to monitor trends in disease rates to ensure that the vaccine is effective and to quantify its impact. However, estimates from observational studies can be confounded by unrelated changes in healthcare utilization, changes in the underlying health of the population, or changes in reporting. Other diseases are often used to detect and adjust for these changes, but choosing an appropriate control disease a priori is a major challenge. The "synthetic controls" (causal impact) method, which was originally developed for website analytics and social sciences, provides an appealing solution. With this approach, potential comparison time series are combined into a composite and are used to generate a counterfactual estimate, which can be compared with the time series of interest after the intervention. We sought to estimate changes in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia associated with the introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) in five countries in the Americas. Using synthetic controls, we found a substantial decline in hospitalizations for all-cause pneumonia in infants in all five countries (average of 20%), whereas estimates for young and middle-aged adults varied by country and were potentially influenced by the 2009 influenza pandemic. In contrast to previous reports, we did not detect a decline in all-cause pneumonia in older adults in any country. Synthetic controls promise to increase the accuracy of studies of vaccine impact and to increase comparability of results between populations compared with alternative approaches.

Epidemiological aspects of ageing.

PubMed Central

Khaw, K T

1997-01-01

A major societal challenge is to improve quality of life and prevent or reduce disability and dependency in an ageing population. Increasing age is associated with increasing risk of disability and loss of independence, due to functional impairments such as loss of mobility, hearing and vision; a major issue must be how far disability can be prevented. Ageing is associated with loss of bone tissue, reduction in muscle mass, reduced respiratory function, decline in cognitive function, rise in blood pressure and macular degeneration which predispose to disabling conditions such as osteoporosis, heart disease, dementia and blindness. However, there are considerable variations in different communities in terms of the rate of age-related decline. Large geographic and secular variations in the age-adjusted incidence of major chronic diseases such as stroke, hip fracture, coronary heart disease, cancer, visual loss from cataract, glaucoma and macular degeneration suggest strong environmental determinants in diet, physical activity and smoking habit. The evidence suggests that a substantial proportion of chronic disabling conditions associated with ageing are preventable, or at least postponable and not an inevitable accompaniment of growing old. Postponement or prevention of these conditions may not only increase longevity, but, more importantly, reduce the period of illnesses such that the majority of older persons may live high-quality lives, free of disability, until very shortly before death. We need to understand better the factors influencing the onset of age-related disability in the population, so that we have appropriate strategies to maintain optimal health in an ageing population. PMID:9460067

Epidemiological aspects of ageing.

PubMed

Khaw, K T

1997-12-29

A major societal challenge is to improve quality of life and prevent or reduce disability and dependency in an ageing population. Increasing age is associated with increasing risk of disability and loss of independence, due to functional impairments such as loss of mobility, hearing and vision; a major issue must be how far disability can be prevented. Ageing is associated with loss of bone tissue, reduction in muscle mass, reduced respiratory function, decline in cognitive function, rise in blood pressure and macular degeneration which predispose to disabling conditions such as osteoporosis, heart disease, dementia and blindness. However, there are considerable variations in different communities in terms of the rate of age-related decline. Large geographic and secular variations in the age-adjusted incidence of major chronic diseases such as stroke, hip fracture, coronary heart disease, cancer, visual loss from cataract, glaucoma and macular degeneration suggest strong environmental determinants in diet, physical activity and smoking habit. The evidence suggests that a substantial proportion of chronic disabling conditions associated with ageing are preventable, or at least postponable and not an inevitable accompaniment of growing old. Postponement or prevention of these conditions may not only increase longevity, but, more importantly, reduce the period of illnesses such that the majority of older persons may live high-quality lives, free of disability, until very shortly before death. We need to understand better the factors influencing the onset of age-related disability in the population, so that we have appropriate strategies to maintain optimal health in an ageing population.

The size distribution of inhabited planets

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Simpson, Fergus

2016-02-01

Earth-like planets are expected to provide the greatest opportunity for the detection of life beyond the Solar system. However, our planet cannot be considered a fair sample, especially if intelligent life exists elsewhere. Just as a person's country of origin is a biased sample among countries, so too their planet of origin may be a biased sample among planets. The magnitude of this effect can be substantial: over 98 per cent of the world's population live in a country larger than the median. In the context of a simple model where the mean population density is invariant to planet size, we infer that a given inhabited planet (such as our nearest neighbour) has a radius r < 1.2r⊕ (95 per cent confidence bound). We show that this result is likely to hold not only for planets hosting advanced life, but also for those which harbour primitive life forms. Further, inferences may be drawn for any variable which influences population size. For example, since population density is widely observed to decline with increasing body mass, we conclude that most intelligent species are expected to exceed 300 kg.

Declining brown-headed cowbird (Molothrus ater) populations are associated with landscape-specific reductions in brood parasitism and increases in songbird productivity

Treesearch

W. Andrew Cox; Frank R., III Thompson; Brian Root; John Faaborg; Csaba Moskat

2012-01-01

Many songbird species have experienced significant population declines, partly because of brood parasitism by the Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater), which is positively associated with increasing landscape forest cover in the midwestern United States. However, cowbirds are also experiencing long-term population declines, which should reduce...

Intentional injury among the indigenous and total populations in British Columbia, Canada: trends over time and ecological analyses of risk.

PubMed

George, M Anne; Jin, Andrew; Brussoni, Mariana; Lalonde, Christopher E; McCormick, Rod

2017-08-08

Our objective was to explore intentional injury disparity between Indigenous populations and the total population in the province of British Columbia (BC), Canada. We focus on hospitalizations, including both self-inflicted injuries and injuries inflicted by others. We used data from BC's universal health care insurance plan, 1991 to 2010, linked to Vital Statistics databases. Indigenous people were identified through the insurance premium group, and birth and death records. Place of residence was identified through postal code. We calculated crude hospitalization incidence rates and the Standardized Relative Risk (SRR) of hospitalization, standardized by gender, 5-year age group, and Health Service Delivery Area (HSDA). With HSDA populations as the units of observation, linear regression was used to test hypothesized associations of Indigenous ethnicity, geographic, and socio-economic characteristics with SRR of injury. During the period 1991-2010, the crude rate of hospitalization for intentional injuries was 8.4 per 10,000 person-years (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.3 to 8.5) for the total BC population, compared to 45.3 per 10,000 (95% CI: 44.5 to 46.1) for the Indigenous population. For both populations, risk declined over the period for injuries self-inflicted and inflicted by others. The linear regression model predicts that the off-reserve Indigenous population will have SRR of intentional injury 3.98 greater, and the on-reserve Indigenous population 4.17, greater than the total population. The final model was an excellent fit (R 2  = 0.912, F = 177.632, p < 0.001), and found that three variables - occupational risk, high school diploma, and university degree - each provide independent effects when interacting multiplicatively with Indigenous ethnicity. The observation of substantially declining rates of intentional injury for both the Indigenous and total BC populations is off-set by the high disparity in risk between the two populations, which will likely continue until Canada reduces disparity with respect to discriminatory practices, and physical, social, and economic conditions.

Microsatellite Analysis of Museum Specimens Reveals Historical Differences in Genetic Diversity between Declining and More Stable Bombus Species

PubMed Central

Maebe, Kevin; Meeus, Ivan; Ganne, Maarten; De Meulemeester, Thibaut; Biesmeijer, Koos; Smagghe, Guy

2015-01-01

Worldwide most pollinators, e.g. bumblebees, are undergoing global declines. Loss of genetic diversity can play an essential role in these observed declines. In this paper, we investigated the level of genetic diversity of seven declining Bombus species and four more stable species with the use of microsatellite loci. Hereto we genotyped a unique collection of museum specimens. Specimens were collected between 1918 and 1926, in 6 provinces of the Netherlands which allowed us to make interspecific comparisons of genetic diversity. For the stable species B. pascuorum, we also selected populations from two additional time periods: 1949–1955 and 1975–1990. The genetic diversity and population structure in B. pascuorum remained constant over the three time periods. However, populations of declining bumblebee species showed a significantly lower genetic diversity than co-occurring stable species before their major declines. This historical difference indicates that the repeatedly observed reduced genetic diversity in recent populations of declining bumblebee species is not caused solely by the decline itself. The historically low genetic diversity in the declined species may be due to the fact that these species were already rare, making them more vulnerable to the major drivers of bumblebee decline. PMID:26061732

A look at Asia's changing youth population.

PubMed

Xenos, P; Kabamalan, M; Westley, S B

1999-01-01

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.

Social activity, cognitive decline and dementia risk: a 20-year prospective cohort study.

PubMed

Marioni, Riccardo E; Proust-Lima, Cecile; Amieva, Helene; Brayne, Carol; Matthews, Fiona E; Dartigues, Jean-Francois; Jacqmin-Gadda, Helene

2015-10-24

Identifying modifiable lifestyle correlates of cognitive decline and risk of dementia is complex, particularly as few population-based longitudinal studies jointly model these interlinked processes. Recent methodological developments allow us to examine statistically defined sub-populations with separate cognitive trajectories and dementia risks. Engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits, social network size, self-perception of feeling well understood, and degree of satisfaction with social relationships were assessed in 2854 participants from the Paquid cohort (mean baseline age 77 years) and related to incident dementia and cognitive change over 20-years of follow-up. Multivariate repeated cognitive information was exploited by defining the global cognitive functioning as the latent common factor underlying the tests. In addition, three latent homogeneous sub-populations of cognitive change and dementia were identified and contrasted according to social environment variables. In the whole population, we found associations between increased engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits and increased cognitive ability (but not decline) and decreased risk of incident dementia, and between feeling understood and slower cognitive decline. There was evidence for three sub-populations of cognitive aging: fast, medium, and no cognitive decline. The social-environment measures at baseline did not help explain the heterogeneity of cognitive decline and incident dementia diagnosis between these sub-populations. We observed a complex series of relationships between social-environment variables and cognitive decline and dementia. In the whole population, factors such as increased engagement in social, physical, or intellectual pursuits were related to a decreased risk of dementia. However, in a sub-population analysis, the social-environment variables were not linked to the heterogeneous patterns of cognitive decline and dementia risk that defined the sub-groups.

Population demographics for the federally endangered dwarf wedgemussel

USGS Publications Warehouse

Galbraith, Heather S.; Lellis, William A.; Cole, Jeffrey C.; Blakeslee, Carrie J.; St. John White, Barbara

2016-01-01

The dwarf wedgemussel, Alasmidonta heterodon, is a federally endangered freshwater mussel species inhabiting several Atlantic Slope rivers. Studies on population demographics of this species are necessary for status assessment and directing recovery efforts. We conducted qualitative and quantitative surveys for dwarf wedgemussel in the mainstem Delaware River and in four of its tributaries (Big Flat Brook, Little Flat Brook, Neversink River, and Paulinskill River). Population range, relative abundance, size, size structure, and sex ratio were quantified within each river. Total dwarf wedgemussel population size for the surveyed rivers in the Delaware Basin was estimated to be 14,432 individuals (90% confidence limits, 7,961-26,161). Our results suggest that the historically robust Neversink River population has declined, but that this population persists and substantial populations remain in other tributaries. Sex ratios were generally female-biased, and small individuals (<10 mm) found in all rivers indicate recent recruitment. Dwarf wedgemussel was most often found at the surface of the sediment (not buried below) in shallow quadrats (<2.00 m) comprised of small substrate (sand in tributaries; cobble in the mainstem) and minimal aquatic macrophytes. Long-term monitoring, continued surveys for new populations, and assessments of reproductive success are needed to further understand dwarf wedgemussel viability within the Delaware River Basin.

Dealing with China's future population decline: a proposal for replacing low birth rates with sustainable rates.

PubMed

Cao, Shixiong; Wang, Xiuqing

2009-09-01

Decreasing population levels due to declining birth rates are becoming a potentially serious social problem in developed and rapidly developing countries. China urgently needed to reduce birth rates so that its population would decline to a sustainable level, and the family planning policy designed to achieve this goal has largely succeeded. However, continuing to pursue this policy is leading to serious, unanticipated problems such as a shift in the country's population distribution towards the elderly and increasing difficulty supporting that elderly population. Social and political changes that promoted low birth rates and the lack of effective policies to encourage higher birth rates suggest that mitigating the consequences of the predicted population decline will depend on a revised approach based on achieving sustainable birth rates.

Sources of health insurance and characteristics of the uninsured: analysis of the March 2001 Current Population Survey.

PubMed

Fronstin, P

2001-12-01

This Issue Brief provides summary data on the insured and uninsured populations in the nation and in each state. It discusses the characteristics most closely related to an individual's health insurance status. Based on EBRI estimates from the March 2001 Current Population Survey (CPS), it represents 2000 data--the most recent available. Between 1999 and 2000, the percentage of Americans with health insurance increased: 84.1 percent of nonelderly Americans were covered by some form of health insurance in 2000, up from 83.8 percent in 1999. The percentage of nonelderly Americans without health insurance coverage declined from 16.2 percent in 1999 to 15.9 percent in 2000, continuing a trend that started between 1998 and 1999. The main reason for the decline in the number of uninsured Americans was the strong economy and low unemployment. Between 1999 and 2000, the percentage of nonelderly Americans covered by employment-based health insurance increased from 66.6 percent to 67.3 percent, continuing a longer-term trend that started between 1993 and 1994. In 2000, 34.3 million Americans received health insurance from public programs, and an additional 16.1 million purchased it directly from an insurer. More than 25 million Americans participated in Medicaid or the State Children's Health Insurance Program, and 6.1 million received their health insurance through the Tricare and CHAMPVA programs and other government programs designed to provide coverage for retired military members and their families. Even though the number and percentage of uninsured declined substantially between 1998 and 2000, more than 38 million Americans remain uninsured. While an increasing percentage of Americans were being covered by employment-based health plans, this trend may not continue because of the combined re-emergence of health care cost inflation and the weak economy. As long as the economy is strong and unemployment is low, employment-based health insurance coverage will expand and the uninsured will decline gradually. However, the combination of the current weak economy and the rising cost of providing health benefits will likely result in more Americans without health insurance coverage. Should the uninsured remain unchanged and continue to represent 15.9 percent of the nonelderly population, 40 million would be uninsured by 2005. If the uninsured represented 25 percent of the population, 63 million would be uninsured in 2005 and 65 million nonelderly Americans would be uninsured by 2010.

Scaling rules for the final decline to extinction

PubMed Central

Griffen, Blaine D.; Drake, John M.

2009-01-01

Space–time scaling rules are ubiquitous in ecological phenomena. Current theory postulates three scaling rules that describe the duration of a population's final decline to extinction, although these predictions have not previously been empirically confirmed. We examine these scaling rules across a broader set of conditions, including a wide range of density-dependent patterns in the underlying population dynamics. We then report on tests of these predictions from experiments using the cladoceran Daphnia magna as a model. Our results support two predictions that: (i) the duration of population persistence is much greater than the duration of the final decline to extinction and (ii) the duration of the final decline to extinction increases with the logarithm of the population's estimated carrying capacity. However, our results do not support a third prediction that the duration of the final decline scales inversely with population growth rate. These findings not only support the current standard theory of population extinction but also introduce new empirical anomalies awaiting a theoretical explanation. PMID:19141422

Recent fertility and mortality trends among aboriginal and nonaboriginal populations of central Siberia.

PubMed

Leonard, W R; Keenleyside, A; Ivakine, E

1997-06-01

We examine mortality and fertility patterns of aboriginal (primarily Evenki and Keto) and Russian (i.e., nonaboriginal) populations from the Baykit District of Central Siberia for the period 1982-1994. Mortality rates in the aboriginal population of Baykit are substantially greater than those observed in the Russians and are comparable to levels recently reported for other indigenous Siberian groups. Infant mortality rates average 48 per 1000 live births among Baykit aboriginals, three times greater than the Russians of the district (15 per 1000 births) and more than double the rates for Inuit and Indian populations of Canada. Similarly, crude death rates of the Baykit aboriginals are twice as high as those observed in either the Baykit Russians or the Canadian aboriginal populations (13 vs 6-7 deaths per 1000 individuals). Birth rates of the indigenous population of Baykit are higher than those of the Russians (33 vs. 15 births per 1000 individuals) but are comparable to those of Canadian aboriginal groups. Violence and accidents are the leading causes of adult male mortality in both ethnic groups, whereas circulatory diseases have emerged as the prime cause of death in women. The greater male mortality resulting from violence and accidents is a widely observed cross-cultural phenomenon. The emergence of circulatory diseases as a major mortality risk for women, however, appears to be linked to specific lifestyle changes associated with Soviet reorganization of indigenous Siberian societies. Marked declines in mortality and increases in fertility were observed in the Baykit aboriginal population during the mid to late 1980s with the government's implementation of anti-alcohol policies. The decline in mortality, however, was largely erased during the early 1990s, as the region became increasingly isolated and marginalized following the collapse of the Soviet Union. Demographic trends in the Baykit District suggest that because the indigenous groups have become more isolated, many are returning to a more traditional subsistence lifestyle.

Effects of illegal harvest of eggs on the population decline of leatherback turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Tomillo, Pilar Santidrián; Saba, Vincent S; Piedra, Rotney; Paladino, Frank V; Spotila, James R

2008-10-01

Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.

Causes of mortality in California sea otters during periods of population growth and decline

USGS Publications Warehouse

Estes, J.A.; Hatfield, B.B.; Ralls, K.; Ames, J.

2003-01-01

Elevated mortality appears to be the main reason for both sluggish growth and periods of decline in the threatened California sea otter population. We assessed causes of mortality from salvage records of 3,105 beach-cast carcasses recovered from 1968 through 1999, contrasting two periods of growth with two periods of decline. Overall, an estimated 40%-60% of the deaths were not recovered and 70% of the recovered carcasses died from unknown causes. Nonetheless, several common patterns were evident in the salvage records during the periods of population decline. These included greater percentages of (1) prime age animals (3-10 yr), (2) carcasses killed by great white shark attacks, (3) carcasses recovered in spring and summer, and (4) carcasses for which the cause of death was unknown. Neither sex composition nor the proportion of carcasses dying of infectious disease varied consistently between periods of population increase and decline. The population decline from 1976 to 1984 was likely due to incidental mortality in a set-net fishery, and the decline from 1995 to 1999 may be related to a developing live-fish fishery. Long-term trends unrelated to periods of growth and decline included a decrease in per capita pup production and mass/length ratios of adult carcasses over the 31-yr study. The generally high proportion of deaths from infectious disease suggests that this factor has contributed to the chronically sluggish growth rate of the California sea otter population.

Venezuela.

PubMed

1982-02-01

This discussion of Venezuela reviews the following: the history of the country's demographic situation; the government's overall approach to population problems; statistical systems and development planning; institutional arrangements for the integration of population within development planning; the government's view of the importance of population policy in realizing development objectives; population size, growth, and natural increase; morbidity and mortality; fertility; international migration; and spatial distribution. Over the 1920-1961 period Venezuela's level of fertility was high and continued to rise gradually. The crude birth rate was around 40.0/1000 population in 1920, 44.0/1000 in 1950, and 45.0/1000 in 1961, and thereafter began to decline, dropping to a level of 38.4/1000 by 1971. During the same period, mortality underwent a steady decline, with the crude death rate falling from 30.0/1000 population in 1920 to 13.7 in 1950, 7.4 in 1961, and to 6.6 by 1971. Venezuela's government has no policy of intervention to modify fertility or population growth but has relied primarily on the benefits of rapid economic growth to achieve a rate of demographic growth that is compatible with its development objectives. Since 1920, 7 modern censuses have been conducted. The most recent census was in 1971. The registration data are classified as incomplete. Multiround sample household surveys were conducted in 1976-1977 and 1978. The government has not established a special unit for population policies. It assigned this function to the Central Planning Agency in 1975. The government has not announced a comprehensive population policy, but it has been moving in the direction of formulating more comprehensive policies in 2 areas of concern--international migration and spatial distribution. The government considers the current rate of population growth to be satisfactory despite the fact that it is rather high by Latin American standards. The government also considers levels and trends of mortality to be acceptable, given current economic and social circumstances. The government currently considers levels and trends of immigration to be significant and unsatisfactory because they are too high. The country is now more than 75% urban. The government considers the distribution of population within the national territory to be inappropriate and to require substantial modification.

Sweden Faces Zero Population Growth. Population Bulletin, Vol. 35, No. 2, June, 1980.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gendell, Murray

This bulletin examines the causes of the fertility decline in Sweden and the concerns and ambivalence of Swedes about zero population growth (ZPG). The fertility decline is attributed to many causes. In recent years there has been a drop in marriage rates and a sharp increase in non-marital cohabitation. The decline is also related to the…

Decline of disjunct green salamander (Aneides aeneus) populations in the southern appalachians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corser, J.D.

2001-01-01

Coincident with other amphibians around the world Aneides aeneus, a terrestrial plethodontid salamander, suffered a population collapse in a disjunct portion of its range in the mid-late 1970s. Long-term monitoring of seven historical green salamander populations throughout the 1990s showed a 98% decline in relative abundance since 1970. Three out of six populations first discovered in 1991 also crashed in 1996-1997. The synchronized suddenness of the declines, their region-wide impact, and effects on both small and larger populations, suggest the role of a novel agent of mortality beginning in the mid-late 1970s. Acting alone, but more likely in concert, habitat loss, overcollecting, epidemic disease and climate change could account for this region-wide decline.

Determine why there are fewer young alcohol-impaired drivers

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2001-09-01

The number of drinking drivers under the age of 21 involved in fatal crashes decreased by 61% over the past 17 years, from 4,393 in 1982 to 1,714 in 19998. This report investigates the causes of this substantial decline, which far exceeds the decline...

Timber resource of Missouri's Prairie, 1972.

Treesearch

Jerold T. Hahn; Alexander Vasilevsky

1975-01-01

The third timber inventory of Missouri's Prairie Forest Survey Unit shows substantial declines in both growing-stock and sawtimber volumes between 1959 and 1972. Commercial forest area declined by one-fifth. Presents highlights and statistics on forest area and timber volume, growth, mortality, ownership, and use in 1972.

Sarcopenic obesity in aging population: current status and future directions for research.

PubMed

Kohara, Katsuhiko

2014-02-01

The combination of sarcopenia and obesity, an age-related change in body composition, is a concern in the aged society. Sarcopenic obesity is not the combination of two conditions, but is more related to cardio-metabolic and functional abnormalities. Sarcopenic obesity is associated with more physical functional decline than simple obesity. Sarcopenic obesity may be more insulin resistant, and have a higher risk for metabolic syndrome and atherosclerosis than simple obesity. However, the prevalence of sarcopenic obesity differs substantially among studies because of the lack of a standard definition. For further understanding of the pathophysiological role of sarcopenic obesity, a standardized definition for both sarcopenia and obesity is necessary.

Changes in Meeting Physical Activity Guidelines After Discharge From the Military.

PubMed

Littman, Alyson J; Jacobson, Isobel G; Boyko, Edward J; Smith, Tyler C

2015-05-01

Understanding physical activity (PA) after discharge from the military can inform theory on the role of habit and reinforcement in behavior maintenance and has implications for this population's future health. Using data from 28,866 Millennium Cohort Study participants (n = 3782 of whom were discharged during the years between assessments), we 1) investigated changes in meeting federal PA guidelines for moderate-to-vigorous activity (MVPA) following military discharge and 2) determined predictors of meeting these guidelines after discharge. MVPA declined more in those who were discharged than in those who were not (-17.8 percentage points vs. -2.7 percentage points), with greater declines in former active-duty personnel, those who had deployed with combat exposures, had 14 to 25 years of service, and had been discharged more recently (>2 years prior). In those who were discharged, being normal or overweight (vs. obese), and a nonsmoker or former smoker (vs. current smoker) were positively associated with meeting MVPA Guidelines at follow-up, while meeting MVPA Guidelines at baseline and depression were inversely associated. Reductions in MVPA were substantial and unexpected. Increased understanding of transitional periods that may benefit from interventions to mitigate declines in PA will help prevent excess weight gain and physical inactivity-associated health consequences.

Endangered species management and ecosystem restoration: Finding the common ground

USGS Publications Warehouse

Casazza, Michael L.; Overton, Cory T.; Bui, Thuy-Vy D.; Hull, Joshua M.; Albertson, Joy D.; Bloom, Valary K.; Bobzien, Steven; McBroom, Jennifer; Latta, Marilyn; Olofson, Peggy; Rohmer, Tobias M.; Schwarzbach, Steven E.; Strong, Donald R.; Grijalva, Erik; Wood, Julian K.; Skalos, Shannon; Takekawa, John Y.

2016-01-01

Management actions to protect endangered species and conserve ecosystem function may not always be in precise alignment. Efforts to recover the California Ridgway’s Rail (Rallus obsoletus obsoletus; hereafter, California rail), a federally and state-listed species, and restoration of tidal marsh ecosystems in the San Francisco Bay estuary provide a prime example of habitat restoration that has conflicted with species conservation. On the brink of extinction from habitat loss and degradation, and non-native predators in the 1990s, California rail populations responded positively to introduction of a non-native plant, Atlantic cordgrass (Spartina alterniflora). California rail populations were in substantial decline when the non-native Spartina was initially introduced as part of efforts to recover tidal marshes. Subsequent hybridization with the native Pacific cordgrass (Spartina foliosa) boosted California rail populations by providing greater cover and increased habitat area. The hybrid cordgrass (S. alterniflora × S. foliosa) readily invaded tidal mudflats and channels, and both crowded out native tidal marsh plants and increased sediment accretion in the marsh plain. This resulted in modification of tidal marsh geomorphology, hydrology, productivity, and species composition. Our results show that denser California rail populations occur in invasive Spartina than in native Spartina in San Francisco Bay. Herbicide treatment between 2005 and 2012 removed invasive Spartina from open intertidal mud and preserved foraging habitat for shorebirds. However, removal of invasive Spartina caused substantial decreases in California rail populations. Unknown facets of California rail ecology, undesirable interim stages of tidal marsh restoration, and competing management objectives among stakeholders resulted in management planning for endangered species or ecosystem restoration that favored one goal over the other. We have examined this perceived conflict and propose strategies for moderating harmful effects of restoration while meeting the needs of both endangered species and the imperiled native marsh ecosystem.

Child Abuse and Neglect. Data Snapshot

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DC Action for Children, 2011

2011-01-01

The number of substantiated cases of child abuse and neglect in the District rose by 27 percent in FY 2009. This dramatic spike came after two consecutive years of decline in the number of substantiated cases reported the D.C. Child and Family Services Agency (CFSA). In FY 2010, the number of closed, substantiated cases dropped back down to 1,691,…

Five decades on: Use of historical weaning size data reveals that a decrease in maternal foraging success underpins the long-term decline in population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina).

PubMed

Clausius, Ella; McMahon, Clive R; Hindell, Mark A

2017-01-01

The population of Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) at Macquarie Island has declined since the 1960s, and is thought to be due to changing oceanic conditions leading to reductions in the foraging success of Macquarie Island breeding females. To test this hypothesis, we used a 55-year-old data set on weaning size of southern elephant seals to quantify a decrease in weaning size from a period of population stability in 1950s to its present state of on-going decline. Being capital breeders, the size of elephant seal pups at weaning is a direct consequence of maternal foraging success in the preceding year. During the 1940-1950s, the mean of female pups at weaning was similar between the Heard and Macquarie Island populations, while the snout-tail-length length of male weaners from Heard Island were longer than their conspecifics at Macquarie Island. Additionally, the snout-tail-length of pups at weaning decreased by 3cm between the 1950s and 1990s in the Macquarie Island population, concurrent with the observed population decline. Given the importance of weaning size in determining first-year survival and recruitment rates, the decline in the size at weaning suggests that the decline in the Macquarie Island population has, to some extent, been driven by reduced maternal foraging success, consequent declines in the size of pups at weaning, leading to reduced first-year survival rates and recruitment of breeding females into the population 3 to 4 years later.

Effects of an invasive plant on population dynamics in toads.

PubMed

Greenberg, Daniel A; Green, David M

2013-10-01

When populations decline in response to unfavorable environmental change, the dynamics of their population growth shift. In populations that normally exhibit high levels of variation in recruitment and abundance, as do many amphibians, declines may be difficult to identify from natural fluctuations in abundance. However, the onset of declines may be evident from changes in population growth rate in sufficiently long time series of population data. With data from 23 years of study of a population of Fowler's toad (Anaxyrus [ = Bufo] fowleri) at Long Point, Ontario (1989-2011), we sought to identify such a shift in dynamics. We tested for trends in abundance to detect a change point in population dynamics and then tested among competing population models to identify associated intrinsic and extrinsic factors. The most informative models of population growth included terms for toad abundance and the extent of an invasive marsh plant, the common reed (Phragmites australis), throughout the toads' marshland breeding areas. Our results showed density-dependent growth in the toad population from 1989 through 2002. After 2002, however, we found progressive population decline in the toads associated with the spread of common reeds and consequent loss of toad breeding habitat. This resulted in reduced recruitment and population growth despite the lack of significant loss of adult habitat. Our results underscore the value of using long-term time series to identify shifts in population dynamics coincident with the advent of population decline. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Evaluating Ultraviolet Radiation Exposures Determined from TOMS Satellite Data at Sites of Amphibian Declines in Central and South America

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Middleton, Elizabeth M.; Smith, David E. (Technical Monitor)

2000-01-01

Many amphibian species have experienced substantial population declines, or have disappeared altogether, during the last several decades at a number of amphibian census sites in Central and South America. This study addresses the use of satellite-derived trends in solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B; 280-320 nm) radiation exposures at these sites over the last two decades, and is intended to demonstrate a role for satellite observations in determining whether UV-B radiation is a contributing factor in amphibian declines. UV-B radiation levels at the Earth's surface were derived from the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) satellite data, typically acquired daily since 1979. These data were used to calculate the daily erythemal (sunburning) UV-B, or UV-B(sub ery), exposures at the latitude, longitude, and elevation of each of 20 census sites. The annually averaged UV-B(sub ery) dose, as well as the maximum values, have been increasing in both Central and South America, with higher levels received at the Central American sites. The annually averaged UV-B(sub ery) exposures increased significantly from 1979-1998 at all 11 Central American sites examined (r(exp 2) = 0.60 - 0.79; P<=0.015), with smaller but significant increases at five of the nine South American sites (r(exp 2) = 0.24-0.42; P<=0.05). The contribution of the highest UV-B(sub ery) exposure levels (>= 6750 J/sq m*d) to the annual UV-B(sub ery) total has increased from approx. 5% to approx. 15% in Central America over the 19 year period, but actual daily exposures for each species are unknown. Synergy among UV-B radiation and other factors, especially those associated with alterations of water chemistry (e.g., acidification) in aqueous habitats is discussed. These findings justify further research concerning whether UV-B(sub ery) radiation plays a role in amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Community-based intervention packages facilitated by NGOs demonstrate plausible evidence for child mortality impact.

PubMed

Ricca, Jim; Kureshy, Nazo; LeBan, Karen; Prosnitz, Debra; Ryan, Leo

2014-03-01

Evidence exists that community-based intervention packages can have substantial child and newborn mortality impact, and may help more countries meet Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) targets. A non-governmental organization (NGO) project using such programming in Mozambique documented an annual decline in under-five mortality rate (U5MR) of 9.3% in a province in which Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) data showed a 4.2% U5MR decline during the same period. To test the generalizability of this finding, the same analysis was applied to a group of projects funded by the US Agency for International Development. Projects supported implementation of community-based intervention packages aimed at increasing use of health services while improving preventive and home-care practices for children under five. All projects collect baseline and endline population coverage data for key child health interventions. Twelve projects fitted the inclusion criteria. U5MR decline was estimated by modelling these coverage changes in the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) and comparing with concurrent measured DHS mortality data. Average coverage changes for all interventions exceeded average concurrent trends. When population coverage changes were modelled in LiST, they were estimated to give a child mortality improvement in the project area that exceeded concurrent secular trend in the subnational DHS region in 11 of 12 cases. The average improvement in modelled U5MR (5.8%) was more than twice the concurrent directly measured average decline (2.5%). NGO projects implementing community-based intervention packages appear to be effective in reducing child mortality in diverse settings. There is plausible evidence that they raised coverage for a variety of high-impact interventions and improved U5MR by more than twice the concurrent secular trend. All projects used community-based strategies that achieved frequent interpersonal contact for health behaviour change. Further study of the effectiveness and scalability of similar packages should be part of the effort to accelerate progress towards MDG 4.

The diagnosis and management of mild cognitive impairment: a clinical review.

PubMed

Langa, Kenneth M; Levine, Deborah A

2014-12-17

Cognitive decline is a common and feared aspect of aging. Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) is defined as the symptomatic predementia stage on the continuum of cognitive decline, characterized by objective impairment in cognition that is not severe enough to require help with usual activities of daily living. To present evidence on the diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis of MCI and to provide physicians with an evidence-based framework for caring for older patients with MCI and their caregivers. We searched PubMed for English-language articles in peer-reviewed journals and the Cochrane Library database from inception through July 2014. Relevant references from retrieved articles were also evaluated. The prevalence of MCI in adults aged 65 years and older is 10% to 20%; risk increases with age and men appear to be at higher risk than women. In older patients with MCI, clinicians should consider depression, polypharmacy, and uncontrolled cardiovascular risk factors, all of which may increase risk for cognitive impairment and other negative outcomes. Currently, no medications have proven effective for MCI; treatments and interventions should be aimed at reducing cardiovascular risk factors and prevention of stroke. Aerobic exercise, mental activity, and social engagement may help decrease risk of further cognitive decline. Although patients with MCI are at greater risk for developing dementia compared with the general population, there is currently substantial variation in risk estimates (from <5% to 20% annual conversion rates), depending on the population studied. Current research targets improving early detection and treatment of MCI, particularly in patients at high risk for progression to dementia. Cognitive decline and MCI have important implications for patients and their families and will require that primary care clinicians be skilled in identifying and managing this common disorder as the number of older adults increases in coming decades. Current evidence supports aerobic exercise, mental activity, and cardiovascular risk factor control in patients with MCI.

Documenting and explaining the HIV decline in east Zimbabwe: the Manicaland General Population Cohort.

PubMed

Gregson, Simon; Mugurungi, Owen; Eaton, Jeffrey; Takaruza, Albert; Rhead, Rebecca; Maswera, Rufurwokuda; Mutsvangwa, Junior; Mayini, Justin; Skovdal, Morten; Schaefer, Robin; Hallett, Timothy; Sherr, Lorraine; Munyati, Shungu; Mason, Peter; Campbell, Catherine; Garnett, Geoffrey P; Nyamukapa, Constance Anesu

2017-10-06

The Manicaland cohort was established to provide robust scientific data on HIV prevalence and incidence, patterns of sexual risk behaviour and the demographic impact of HIV in a sub-Saharan African population subject to a generalised HIV epidemic. The aims were later broadened to include provision of data on the coverage and effectiveness of national HIV control programmes including antiretroviral therapy (ART). General population open cohort located in 12 sites in Manicaland, east Zimbabwe, representing 4 major socioeconomic strata (small towns, agricultural estates, roadside settlements and subsistence farming areas). 9,109 of 11,453 (79.5%) eligible adults (men 17-54 years; women 15-44 years) were recruited in a phased household census between July 1998 and January 2000. Five rounds of follow-up of the prospective household census and the open cohort were conducted at 2-year or 3-year intervals between July 2001 and November 2013. Follow-up rates among surviving residents ranged between 77.0% (over 3 years) and 96.4% (2 years). HIV prevalence was 25.1% at baseline and had a substantial demographic impact with 10-fold higher mortality in HIV-infected adults than in uninfected adults and a reduction in the growth rate in the worst affected areas (towns) from 2.9% to 1.0%pa. HIV infection rates have been highest in young adults with earlier commencement of sexual activity and in those with older sexual partners and larger numbers of lifetime partners. HIV prevalence has since fallen to 15.8% and HIV incidence has also declined from 2.1% (1998-2003) to 0.63% (2009-2013) largely due to reduced sexual risk behaviour. HIV-associated mortality fell substantially after 2009 with increased availability of ART. We plan to extend the cohort to measure the effects on the epidemic of current and future HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Proposals for access to these data and for collaboration are welcome. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Precipitation, Climate Change, and Parasitism of Prairie Dogs by Fleas that Transmit Plague.

PubMed

Eads, David A; Hoogland, John L

2017-08-01

Fleas (Insecta: Siphonaptera) are hematophagous ectoparasites that can reduce the fitness of vertebrate hosts. Laboratory populations of fleas decline under dry conditions, implying that populations of fleas will also decline when precipitation is scarce under natural conditions. If precipitation and hence vegetative production are reduced, however, then herbivorous hosts might suffer declines in body condition and have weakened defenses against fleas, so that fleas will increase in abundance. We tested these competing hypotheses using information from 23 yr of research on 3 species of colonial prairie dogs in the western United States: Gunnison's prairie dog (Cynomys gunnisoni, 1989-1994), Utah prairie dog (Cynomys parvidens, 1996-2005), and white-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys leucurus, 2006-2012). For all 3 species, flea-counts per individual varied inversely with the number of days in the prior growing season with >10 mm of precipitation, an index of the number of precipitation events that might have caused a substantial, prolonged increase in soil moisture and vegetative production. Flea-counts per Utah prairie dog also varied inversely with cumulative precipitation of the prior growing season. Furthermore, flea-counts per Gunnison's and white-tailed prairie dog varied inversely with cumulative precipitation of the just-completed January and February. These results complement research on black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) and might have important ramifications for plague, a bacterial disease transmitted by fleas that devastates populations of prairie dogs. In particular, our results might help to explain why, at some colonies, epizootics of plague, which can kill >95% of prairie dogs, are more likely to occur during or shortly after periods of reduced precipitation. Climate change is projected to increase the frequency of droughts in the grasslands of western North America. If so, then climate change might affect the occurrence of plague epizootics among prairie dogs and other mammalian species that associate with them.

AMPHIBIAN DECLINE, ULTRAVIOLET RADIATION AND LOCAL POPULATION ADAPTATION

EPA Science Inventory

Amphibian population declines have been noted on both local and global scales. Causes for these declines are unknown although many hypotheses have been offered. In areas adjacent to human development, loss of habitat is a fairly well accepted cause. However in isolated, seemingl...

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Bell, Kristen E; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M; Donnelly, Maureen A

2007-05-15

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these "enigmatic" declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by approximately 75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks.

Chytridiomycosis and seasonal mortality of tropical stream-associated frogs 15 years after introduction of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis.

PubMed

Phillott, Andrea D; Grogan, Laura F; Cashins, Scott D; McDonald, Keith R; Berger, Lee; Skerratt, Lee F

2013-10-01

Assessing the effects of diseases on wildlife populations can be difficult in the absence of observed mortalities, but it is crucial for threat assessment and conservation. We performed an intensive capture-mark-recapture study across seasons and years to investigate the effect of chytridiomycosis on demographics in 2 populations of the threatened common mist frog (Litoria rheocola) in the lowland wet tropics of Queensland, Australia. Infection prevalence was the best predictor for apparent survival probability in adult males and varied widely with season (0-65%). Infection prevalence was highest in winter months when monthly survival probabilities were low (approximately 70%). Populations at both sites exhibited very low annual survival probabilities (12-15%) but high recruitment (71-91%), which resulted in population growth rates that fluctuated seasonally. Our results suggest that even in the absence of observed mortalities and continued declines, and despite host-pathogen co-existence for multiple host generations over almost 2 decades, chytridiomycosis continues to have substantial seasonally fluctuating population-level effects on amphibian survival, which necessitates increased recruitment for population persistence. Similarly infected populations may thus be under continued threat from chytridiomycosis which may render them vulnerable to other threatening processes, particularly those affecting recruitment success. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

Can selective migration explain why health is worse in regions with population decline?: A study on migration and self-rated health in the Netherlands.

PubMed

Dijkstra, Aletta; Kibele, Eva U B; Verweij, Antonia; van der Lucht, Fons; Janssen, Fanny

2015-12-01

Health disparities between population declining and non-declining areas have received little attention, even though population decline is an established phenomenon in Europe. Selective migration, in which healthier people move out of deprived areas, can possibly explain worse health in declining regions. We assessed whether selective migration can explain the observed worse average health in declining regions as compared with non-declining regions in the Netherlands. Combining data from the Dutch Housing and Living Survey held in 2002 and 2006 with Dutch registry data, we studied the relation between health status and migration in a 5-year period at the individual level by applying logistic regression. In our sample of 130,600 participants, we compared health status, demographic and socioeconomic factors of movers and stayers from declining and non-declining regions. People in the Netherlands who migrated are healthier than those staying behind [odds ratio (OR): 1.80]. This effect is larger for persons moving out of declining regions (OR: 1.76) than those moving into declining regions (OR: 1.47). When controlled for demographic and socioeconomic characteristics, these effects are not significant. Moreover, only a small part of the population migrates out of (0.29%) or into (0.25%) declining regions in the course of 5 years. Despite the relation between health and migration, the effect of selective migration on health differences between declining and non-declining regions in the Netherlands is small. Both health and migration are complexly linked with socioeconomic and demographic factors. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Are snake populations in widespread decline?

PubMed Central

Reading, C. J.; Luiselli, L. M.; Akani, G. C.; Bonnet, X.; Amori, G.; Ballouard, J. M.; Filippi, E.; Naulleau, G.; Pearson, D.; Rugiero, L.

2010-01-01

Long-term studies have revealed population declines in fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds and mammals. In birds, and particularly amphibians, these declines are a global phenomenon whose causes are often unclear. Among reptiles, snakes are top predators and therefore a decline in their numbers may have serious consequences for the functioning of many ecosystems. Our results show that, of 17 snake populations (eight species) from the UK, France, Italy, Nigeria and Australia, 11 have declined sharply over the same relatively short period of time with five remaining stable and one showing signs of a marginal increase. Although the causes of these declines are currently unknown, we suspect that they are multi-faceted (such as habitat quality deterioration, prey availability), and with a common cause, e.g. global climate change, at their root. PMID:20534600

Condition index monitoring supports conservation priorities for the protection of threatened grass-finch populations

PubMed Central

French, Kristine; Legge, Sarah; Astheimer, Lee; Garnett, Stephen

2015-01-01

Abstract Conservation agencies are often faced with the difficult task of prioritizing what recovery actions receive support. With the number of species under threat of decline growing globally, research that informs conservation priorities is greatly needed. The relative vulnerability of cryptic or nomadic species is often uncertain, because populations are difficult to monitor and local populations often seem stable in the short term. This uncertainty can lead to inaction when populations are in need of protection. We tested the feasibility of using differences in condition indices as an indication of population vulnerability to decline for related threatened Australian finch sub-species. The Gouldian finch represents a relatively well-studied endangered species, which has a seasonal and site-specific pattern of condition index variation that differs from the closely related non-declining long-tailed finch. We used Gouldian and long-tailed finch condition variation as a model to compare with lesser studied, threatened star and black-throated finches. We compared body condition (fat and muscle scores), haematocrit and stress levels (corticosterone) among populations, seasons and years to determine whether lesser studied finch populations matched the model of an endangered species or a non-declining species. While vulnerable finch populations often had lower muscle and higher fat and corticosterone concentrations during moult (seasonal pattern similar to Gouldian finches), haematocrit values did not differ among populations in a predictable way. Star and black-throated finch populations, which were predicted to be vulnerable to decline, showed evidence of poor condition during moult, supporting their status as vulnerable. Our findings highlight how measures of condition can provide insight into the relative vulnerability of animal and plant populations to decline and will allow the prioritization of efforts towards the populations most likely to be in jeopardy of extinction. PMID:27293710

Condition index monitoring supports conservation priorities for the protection of threatened grass-finch populations.

PubMed

Maute, Kimberly; French, Kristine; Legge, Sarah; Astheimer, Lee; Garnett, Stephen

2015-01-01

Conservation agencies are often faced with the difficult task of prioritizing what recovery actions receive support. With the number of species under threat of decline growing globally, research that informs conservation priorities is greatly needed. The relative vulnerability of cryptic or nomadic species is often uncertain, because populations are difficult to monitor and local populations often seem stable in the short term. This uncertainty can lead to inaction when populations are in need of protection. We tested the feasibility of using differences in condition indices as an indication of population vulnerability to decline for related threatened Australian finch sub-species. The Gouldian finch represents a relatively well-studied endangered species, which has a seasonal and site-specific pattern of condition index variation that differs from the closely related non-declining long-tailed finch. We used Gouldian and long-tailed finch condition variation as a model to compare with lesser studied, threatened star and black-throated finches. We compared body condition (fat and muscle scores), haematocrit and stress levels (corticosterone) among populations, seasons and years to determine whether lesser studied finch populations matched the model of an endangered species or a non-declining species. While vulnerable finch populations often had lower muscle and higher fat and corticosterone concentrations during moult (seasonal pattern similar to Gouldian finches), haematocrit values did not differ among populations in a predictable way. Star and black-throated finch populations, which were predicted to be vulnerable to decline, showed evidence of poor condition during moult, supporting their status as vulnerable. Our findings highlight how measures of condition can provide insight into the relative vulnerability of animal and plant populations to decline and will allow the prioritization of efforts towards the populations most likely to be in jeopardy of extinction.

Genomic Consequences of Population Decline in the Endangered Florida Scrub-Jay.

PubMed

Chen, Nancy; Cosgrove, Elissa J; Bowman, Reed; Fitzpatrick, John W; Clark, Andrew G

2016-11-07

Understanding the population genetic consequences of declining population size is important for conserving the many species worldwide facing severe decline [1]. Thorough empirical studies on the impacts of population reduction at a genome-wide scale in the wild are scarce because they demand huge field and laboratory investments [1, 2]. Previous studies have demonstrated the importance of gene flow in introducing genetic variation to small populations [3], but few have documented both genetic and fitness consequences of decreased immigration through time in a natural population [4-6]. Here we assess temporal variation in gene flow, inbreeding, and fitness using longitudinal genomic, demographic, and phenotypic data from a long-studied population of federally Threatened Florida scrub-jays (Aphelocoma coerulescens). We exhaustively sampled and genotyped the study population over two decades, providing one of the most detailed longitudinal investigations of genetics in a wild animal population to date. Immigrants were less heterozygous than residents but still introduced genetic variation into our study population. Owing to regional population declines, immigration into the study population declined from 1995-2013, resulting in increased levels of inbreeding and reduced fitness via inbreeding depression, even as the population remained demographically stable. Our results show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, small peripheral populations that already have undergone a genetic bottleneck may play a vital role in preserving genetic diversity of larger and seemingly stable populations. These findings underscore the importance of investing in the persistence of small populations and maintaining population connectivity in conservation of fragmented species. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Potential impact of harvesting on the population dynamics of two epiphytic bromeliads

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Toledo-Aceves, Tarin; Hernández-Apolinar, Mariana; Valverde, Teresa

2014-08-01

Large numbers of epiphytes are extracted from cloud forests for ornamental use and illegal trade in Latin America. We examined the potential effects of different harvesting regimes on the population dynamics of the epiphytic bromeliads Tillandsia multicaulis and Tillandsia punctulata. The population dynamics of these species were studied over a 2-year period in a tropical montane cloud forest in Veracruz, Mexico. Prospective and retrospective analyses were used to identify which demographic processes and life-cycle stages make the largest relative contribution to variation in population growth rate (λ). The effect of simulated harvesting levels on population growth rates was analysed for both species. λ of both populations was highly influenced by survival (stasis), to a lesser extent by growth, and only slightly by fecundity. Vegetative growth played a central role in the population dynamics of these organisms. The λ value of the studied populations did not differ significantly from unity: T. multicaulis λ (95% confidence interval) = 0.982 (0.897-1.060) and T. punctulata λ = 0.967 (0.815-1.051), suggesting population stability. However, numerical simulation of different levels of extraction showed that λ would drop substantially even under very low (2%) harvesting levels. Matrix analysis revealed that T. multicaulis and T. punctulata populations are likely to decline and therefore commercial harvesting would be unsustainable. Based on these findings, management recommendations are outlined.

Differing long term trends for two common amphibian species (Bufo bufo and Rana temporaria) in alpine landscapes of Salzburg, Austria

PubMed Central

Kyek, Martin; Lindner, Robert

2017-01-01

This study focuses on the population trends of two widespread European anuran species: the common toad (Bufo bufo) and the common frog (Rana temporaria). The basis of this study is data gathered over two decades of amphibian fencing alongside roads in the Austrian state of Salzburg. Different statistical approaches were used to analyse the data. Overall average increase or decrease of each species was estimated by calculating a simple average locality index. In addition the statistical software TRIM was used to verify these trends as well as to categorize the data based on the geographic location of each migration site. The results show differing overall trends for the two species: the common toad being stable and the common frog showing a substantial decline over the last two decades. Further analyses based on geographic categorization reveal the strongest decrease in the alpine range of the species. Drainage and agricultural intensification are still ongoing problems within alpine areas, not only in Salzburg. Particularly in respect to micro-climate and the availability of spawning places these changes appear to have a greater impact on the habitats of the common frog than the common toad. Therefore we consider habitat destruction to be the main potential reason behind this dramatic decline. We also conclude that the substantial loss of biomass of a widespread species such as the common frog must have a severe, and often overlooked, ecological impact. PMID:29121054

Analysing Recent Socioeconomic Trends in Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England, 2000–2007: A Population Modelling Study

PubMed Central

Bajekal, Madhavi; Scholes, Shaun; Love, Hande; Hawkins, Nathaniel; O'Flaherty, Martin; Raine, Rosalind; Capewell, Simon

2012-01-01

Background Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in England fell by approximately 6% every year between 2000 and 2007. However, rates fell differentially between social groups with inequalities actually widening. We sought to describe the extent to which this reduction in CHD mortality was attributable to changes in either levels of risk factors or treatment uptake, both across and within socioeconomic groups. Methods and Findings A widely used and replicated epidemiological model was used to synthesise estimates stratified by age, gender, and area deprivation quintiles for the English population aged 25 and older between 2000 and 2007. Mortality rates fell, with approximately 38,000 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. The model explained about 86% (95% uncertainty interval: 65%–107%) of this mortality fall. Decreases in major cardiovascular risk factors contributed approximately 34% (21%–47%) to the overall decline in CHD mortality: ranging from about 44% (31%–61%) in the most deprived to 29% (16%–42%) in the most affluent quintile. The biggest contribution came from a substantial fall in systolic blood pressure in the population not on hypertension medication (29%; 18%–40%); more so in deprived (37%) than in affluent (25%) areas. Other risk factor contributions were relatively modest across all social groups: total cholesterol (6%), smoking (3%), and physical activity (2%). Furthermore, these benefits were partly negated by mortality increases attributable to rises in body mass index and diabetes (−9%; −17% to −3%), particularly in more deprived quintiles. Treatments accounted for approximately 52% (40%–70%) of the mortality decline, equitably distributed across all social groups. Lipid reduction (14%), chronic angina treatment (13%), and secondary prevention (11%) made the largest medical contributions. Conclusions The model suggests that approximately half the recent CHD mortality fall in England was attributable to improved treatment uptake. This benefit occurred evenly across all social groups. However, opposing trends in major risk factors meant that their net contribution amounted to just over a third of the CHD deaths averted; these also varied substantially by socioeconomic group. Powerful and equitable evidence-based population-wide policy interventions exist; these should now be urgently implemented to effectively tackle persistent inequalities. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary PMID:22719232

Relaxation of risk-sensitive behaviour of prey following disease-induced decline of an apex predator, the Tasmanian devil

PubMed Central

Hollings, Tracey; McCallum, Hamish; Kreger, Kaely; Mooney, Nick; Jones, Menna

2015-01-01

Apex predators structure ecosystems through lethal and non-lethal interactions with prey, and their global decline is causing loss of ecological function. Behavioural changes of prey are some of the most rapid responses to predator decline and may act as an early indicator of cascading effects. The Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii), an apex predator, is undergoing progressive and extensive population decline, of more than 90% in long-diseased areas, caused by a novel disease. Time since local disease outbreak correlates with devil population declines and thus predation risk. We used hair traps and giving-up densities (GUDs) in food patches to test whether a major prey species of devils, the arboreal common brushtail possum (Trichosurus vulpecula), is responsive to the changing risk of predation when they forage on the ground. Possums spend more time on the ground, discover food patches faster and forage more to a lower GUD with increasing years since disease outbreak and greater devil population decline. Loss of top–down effects of devils with respect to predation risk was evident at 90% devil population decline, with possum behaviour indistinguishable from a devil-free island. Alternative predators may help to maintain risk-sensitive anti-predator behaviours in possums while devil populations remain low. PMID:26085584

The demographic impact and development benefits of meeting demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods.

PubMed

Goodkind, Daniel; Lollock, Lisa; Choi, Yoonjoung; McDevitt, Thomas; West, Loraine

2018-01-01

Meeting demand for family planning can facilitate progress towards all major themes of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): people, planet, prosperity, peace, and partnership. Many policymakers have embraced a benchmark goal that at least 75% of the demand for family planning in all countries be satisfied with modern contraceptive methods by the year 2030. This study examines the demographic impact (and development implications) of achieving the 75% benchmark in 13 developing countries that are expected to be the furthest from achieving that benchmark. Estimation of the demographic impact of achieving the 75% benchmark requires three steps in each country: 1) translate contraceptive prevalence assumptions (with and without intervention) into future fertility levels based on biometric models, 2) incorporate each pair of fertility assumptions into separate population projections, and 3) compare the demographic differences between the two population projections. Data are drawn from the United Nations, the US Census Bureau, and Demographic and Health Surveys. The demographic impact of meeting the 75% benchmark is examined via projected differences in fertility rates (average expected births per woman's reproductive lifetime), total population, growth rates, age structure, and youth dependency. On average, meeting the benchmark would imply a 16 percentage point increase in modern contraceptive prevalence by 2030 and a 20% decline in youth dependency, which portends a potential demographic dividend to spur economic growth. Improvements in meeting the demand for family planning with modern contraceptive methods can bring substantial benefits to developing countries. To our knowledge, this is the first study to show formally how such improvements can alter population size and age structure. Declines in youth dependency portend a demographic dividend, an added bonus to the already well-known benefits of meeting existing demands for family planning.

Antiracism and the Level of Health Services: A Sociomedical Hypothesis

PubMed Central

Schatzkin, Arthur; Cooper, Richard; Green, Linda

1984-01-01

Little attention has been paid to the validity of the “reverse discrimination” position that antiracist initiatives in the health sector would be associated with reduced services for whites. This paper advances the sociomedical hypothesis that antiracism leads to an increase in the level of health services and opportunities available to both minority and white populations. Four types of US health care utilization and training data are explored: annual rates of discharge from short-stay hospitals, percent of population seeing a physician during the year, rates of hypertension treatment and control, and admissions to the first-year class of US medical schools. These data are examined according to race for years prior and subsequent to the upsurge of antiracist activity that characterized the Civil Rights Movement era. From the early or mid-1960s to the mid- or late 1970s, hospital discharges, physician visits, and hypertension treatment and control for minorities and whites increased substantially. Generally these increases were proportionally greater for minorities. Although the percentage of increase in minority medical school admissions was necessarily accompanied by a decline in percentage of admissions of whites, the absolute number of whites admitted rose substantially as overall class size grew. These data do not support the “reverse discrimination” notion of one racial group benefiting at the expense of another. The data are consistent with the hypothesis that antiracist efforts in the health sector lead to an expansion of services and opportunities for minority and majority populations. PMID:6737494

Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Populations?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

United Nations, New York, NY. Dept. of Economic and Social Affairs.

The United Nations (UN) Population Division monitors fertility, mortality, and migration trends for all countries as a basis for producing the official UN population estimates and projections. Among recent demographic trends, two are prominent: (1) population decline and (2) population aging. Focusing on these two critical trends, a study…

Loss of sagebrush ecosystems and declining bird populations in the Intermountain West: Priority research issues and information needs

USGS Publications Warehouse

,

2002-01-01

Sagebrush lands in the Intermountain West are declining rapidly in quality and extent. Consequently, populations of many bird species dependent on these ecosystems also are declining. The greater sage-grouse has been petitioned for listing as a threatened and endangered species, and other species of sagebrush-obligate birds have special conservation status in most states. We identified the primary issues and information needs during a multi-agency workshop, conducted in response to concerns by management agencies related to declining bird population trends in sagebrush habitats. Priority needs were to (1) obtain a better understanding of bird response to habitat and landscape features, (2) develop monitoring designs to sample habitats and bird populations, (3) determine the effects of land use on sagebrush habitats and dependent bird species, and (4) identify linkages between breeding and wintering ranges. This agenda will identify causes and mechanisms of population declines in birds dependent on sagebrush ecosystems and will lead to better management of the ecosystems upon which they depend.

Global Impacts of Long-Term Land Cover Changes Within China's Densely Populated Rural Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ellis, E. C.

2006-12-01

Long-term changes in land cover are usually investigated in terms of large-scale change processes such as urban expansion, deforestation and land conversion to agriculture. Yet China's densely populated agricultural regions, which cover more than 2 million square kilometers of Monsoon Asia, have been transformed profoundly over the past fifty years by fine-scale changes in land cover caused by unprecedented changes in population, technology and social conditions. Using a regional sampling and upscaling design coupled with high-resolution landscape change measurements at five field sites, we investigated long-term changes in land cover and ecological processes, circa 1945 to 2002, within and across China's densely populated agricultural regions. As expected, the construction of buildings and roads increased impervious surface area over time, but the total net increase was surprising, being similar in magnitude to the total current extent of China's cities. Agricultural land area declined over the same period, while tree cover increased, by about 10%, driven by tree planting and regrowth around new buildings, the introduction of perennial agriculture, improved forestry, and declines in annual crop cultivation. Though changes in impervious surface areas were closely related to changes in population density, long-term changes in agricultural land and tree cover were unrelated to populated density and required explanation by more complex models with strong regional and biophysical components. Moreover, most of these changes occurred primarily at fine spatial scales (< 30 m), under the threshold for conventional global and regional land cover change measurements. Given that these changes in built structures and vegetation cover have the potential to contribute substantially to regional and global changes in biogeochemistry, hydrology, and land-atmosphere interactions, future investigations of these changes and their impacts across Monsoon Asia would benefit from models that incorporate fine-scale landscape structure and its changes over time.

Differential patterns of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in relict amphibian populations following severe disease-associated declines.

PubMed

Whitfield, Steven M; Alvarado, Gilbert; Abarca, Juan; Zumbado, Hector; Zuñiga, Ibrahim; Wainwright, Mark; Kerby, Jacob

2017-09-20

Global amphibian biodiversity has declined dramatically in the past 4 decades, and many amphibian species have declined to near extinction as a result of emergence of the amphibian chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). However, persistent or recovering populations of several amphibian species have recently been rediscovered, and such populations may illustrate how amphibian species that are highly susceptible to chytridiomycosis may survive in the presence of Bd. We conducted field surveys for Bd infection in 7 species of Costa Rican amphibians (all species that have declined to near extinction but for which isolated populations persist) to characterize infection profiles in highly Bd-susceptible amphibians post-decline. We found highly variable patterns in infection, with some species showing low prevalence (~10%) and low infection intensity and others showing high infection prevalence (>80%) and either low or high infection intensity. Across sites, infection rates were negatively associated with mean annual precipitation, and infection intensity across sites was negatively associated with mean average temperatures. Our results illustrate that even the most Bd-susceptible amphibians can persist in Bd-enzootic ecosystems, and that multiple ecological or evolutionary mechanisms likely exist for host-pathogen co-existence between Bd and the most Bd-susceptible amphibian species. Continued monitoring of these populations is necessary to evaluate population trends (continuing decline, stability, or population growth). These results should inform efforts to mitigate impacts of Bd on amphibians in the field.

Latent population responses of summer birds to a catastrophic, climatological event

USGS Publications Warehouse

Knopf, Fritz L.; Sedgwick, James A.

1987-01-01

Catastrophic events can create ecological crunches for avian populations. Ornithologists generally assume that such events elicit immediate, dramatic declines in populations followed by rapid recolonization of a site with habitat recovery. Despite total inundation of habitats within the South Platte floodplain of eastern Colorado during the 1983 breeding season, populations of Brown Thrashers (Toxostoma rufum) and Rufoussided Towhees (Pipilo erythrophthalmus) did not decline significantly from 1982 densities. However, populations of both species declined significantly in 1984 and towhee populations remained low in 1985. These observations support speculations from recent studies of shrubsteppe bird populations that site tenacity may play a stronger role in determining annual densities of breeding birds than previously realized.

What we know and don't know about amphibian declines in the West

USGS Publications Warehouse

Corn, Paul Stephen

1994-01-01

The problem of declining amphibian species is thought to be particularly acute in western North America, but there are many gaps in our knowledge. Although several declines have been well-documented, other declines are anecdotal or hypothesized. Most documented declines are of ranid frogs or toads (Bufo). Species from montane habitats and those occurring in California have been best studied. Status of many desert species is unknown. Habitat destruction and introduced predators are the most common threats to amphibian populations. Some declines may represent natural variation in population size. Causes have not been determined for several cases where common species have declined over large areas. There are important considerations for ecosystem management, whether changes in amphibian populations are natural or caused by human activities. Causes for declines must be known so that management can be prescribed (or proscribed) to eliminate or minimize these causes. The natural variability of amphibian population numbers and the complexity of metapopulation structure emphasize the necessity of considering multiple temporal and spatial scales in ecosystem management. The decline of amphibian species throughout the world has received considerable recent attention (e.g., Blaustein and Wake 1990, Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Yoffe 1992). Much of this attention derives from a workshop held in February, 1990 on declining amphibians sponsored by the National Research Council Board (NRC) on Biology in Irvine, California (Barinaga 1990, Borchelt 1990). Because of media attention in the aftermath of this conference, it is a popular perception that amphibian declines are a new phenomenon that herpetologists have been slow to recognize (Griffiths and Beebee 1992, Quammen 1993). However, concern about amphibian populations in the United States dates back over 20 years. Beginning in the 1960s, a large, well-documented decline of northern leopard frogs (Rana pipiens) occurred in the upper Midwest (Gibbs et al. 1971, Hine, 1981, Rittshof 1975).

Productivity, mortality, and population trends of wolves in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L.D.

1977-01-01

Population parameters, mortality causes, and mechanisms of a population decline were studied in wolves (Canis lupus lycaon) from 1968 to 1976 in the Superior National Forest. The main method was aerial radio-tracking of 129 wolves and their packmates. Due to a decline in white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), the wolf population decreased during most of the study. Average annual productivity varied from 1.5 to 3.3 pups per litter, and annual mortality rates from 7 to 65 percent. Malnutrition and intraspecific strife accounted equally for 58 percent of the mortality; human causes accounted for the remainder. As wolf numbers began to decline, pup starvation became apparent, followed by lower pup production, and then by increased intraspecific strife. At higher densities, adult pack wolves were the most secure members of the population, but as the population declined, they became the least secure because of intraspecific strife.

[Fertility change in Mexico and the politics of population].

PubMed

Zavala De Cosio, M E

1993-01-01

This introduction to a detailed study of fertility change in Mexico assesses the available fertility data and describes the sources used, traces the beginning and course of the demographic transition in Mexico, and describes the work. Mexico's demographic transition began around 1930 with the acceleration of mortality decline. The considerable time lag between the mortality decline and the beginning of the fertility decline resulted in a period of very rapid growth. Between 1955 and 1975, the growth rate exceeded 3% annually. The start of the fertility decline dated to about 1970, the time of a major reform of population policy and creation of institutions to reduce growth. But the fertility decline was not solely the result of population programs. An incipient fertility decline could be observed in the metropolitan and more educated population sectors beginning in the early 1960s. The onset of the mortality decline in the 1930s resulted from the sustained social and economic progress made possible after the conclusion of the Mexican Revolution. Between 1930 and 1980, the adult illiteracy rate declined from 61.2% to 17%, while life expectancy increased from 33 years to 63.2 years. In Mexico as in other Latin American countries, the mortality decline, which disturbed the traditional balance between high mortality and high fertility, was the force setting off the demographic transition and the necessary precursor to fertility decline. The first of two main sections of the book focuses on examination of fertility variations in Mexico since around 1900 using cross-sectional and longitudinal methods of analysis. The second part describes the origins, history, and institutions involved in Mexico's population policies and the demographic programs and their principal results. The influence of population policies in demographic change is assessed, especially in the case of fertility changes induced by family planning programs. Both the first and second parts sought to place Mexican fertility trends in the context of the demographic transition and to observe the functioning and effects of demographic programs.

Activity Restriction Induced by Fear of Falling and Objective and Subjective Measures of Physical Function: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Deshpande, Nandini; Metter, E. Jeffrey; Lauretani, Fulvio; Bandinelli, Stefania; Guralnik, Jack; Ferrucci, Luigi

2009-01-01

Objectives To examine whether activity restriction specifically induced by fear of falling (FF) contributes to greater risk of disability and decline in physical function. Design Prospective cohort study. Setting Population-based older cohort. Participants Six hundred seventy-three community-living elderly (≥65) participants in the Invecchiare in Chianti Study who reported FF. Measurements FF, fear-induced activity restriction, cognition, depressive symptoms, comorbidities, smoking history, and demographic factors were assessed at baseline. Disability in activities of daily living (ADLs) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) and performance on the Short Performance Physical Battery (SPPB) were evaluated at baseline and at the 3-year follow-up. Results One-quarter (25.5%) of participants did not report any activity restriction, 59.6% reported moderate activity restriction (restriction or avoidance of <3 activities), and 14.9% reported severe activity restriction (restriction or avoidance of ≥3 activities). The severe restriction group reported significantly higher IADL disability and worse SPPB scores than the no restriction and moderate restriction groups. Severe activity restriction was a significant independent predictor of worsening ADL disability and accelerated decline in lower extremity performance on SPPB over the 3-year follow-up. Severe and moderate activity restriction were independent predictors of worsening IADL disability. Results were consistent even after adjusting for multiple potential confounders. Conclusion In an elderly population, activity restriction associated with FF is an independent predictor of decline in physical function. Future intervention studies in geriatric preventive care should directly address risk factors associated with FF and activity restriction to substantiate long-term effects on physical abilities and autonomy of older persons. PMID:18312314

Do bird assemblages predict susceptibility by e-waste pollution? A comparative study based on species- and guild-dependent responses in China agroecosystems.

PubMed

Zhang, Qiang; Wu, Jiangping; Sun, Yuxin; Zhang, Min; Mai, Bixian; Mo, Ling; Lee, Tien Ming; Zou, Fasheng

2015-01-01

Indirect effects of electronic waste (e-waste) have been proposed as a causal factor in the decline of bird populations, but analyses of the severity impacts on community assembly are currently lacking. To explore how population abundance/species diversity are influenced, and which functional traits are important in determining e-waste susceptibility, here we surveyed breeding and overwintering birds with a hierarchically nested sampling design, and used linear mixed models to analyze changes in bird assemblages along an exposure gradient in South China. Total bird abundance and species diversity decreased with e-waste severity (exposed < surrounding < reference), reflecting the decreasing discharge and consequent side effects. Twenty-five breeding species exclusively used natural farmland, and nine species decreased significantly in relative abundance at e-waste polluted sites. A high pairwise similarity between exposed and surrounding sites indicates a diffuse effect of pollutants on the species assembly at local scale. We show that sensitivity to e-waste severity varies substantially across functional guild, with the prevalence of woodland insectivorous and grassland specialists declining, while some open farmland generalists such as arboreal frugivores, and terrestrial granivores were also rare. By contrast, the response of waterbirds, omnivorous and non-breeding visitors seem to be tolerable to a wide range of pollution so far. These findings underscore that improper e-waste dismantling results in a severe decline of bird diversity, and the different bird assemblages on polluted and natural farmlands imply species- and guild-dependent susceptibility with functional traits. Moreover, a better understanding of the impact of e-waste with different pollution levels, combined multiple pollutants, and in a food-web context on bird is required in future.

Do Bird Assemblages Predict Susceptibility by E-Waste Pollution? A Comparative Study Based on Species- and Guild-Dependent Responses in China Agroecosystems

PubMed Central

Zhang, Qiang; Wu, Jiangping; Sun, Yuxin; Zhang, Min; Mai, Bixian; Mo, Ling; Lee, Tien Ming; Zou, Fasheng

2015-01-01

Indirect effects of electronic waste (e-waste) have been proposed as a causal factor in the decline of bird populations, but analyses of the severity impacts on community assembly are currently lacking. To explore how population abundance/species diversity are influenced, and which functional traits are important in determining e-waste susceptibility, here we surveyed breeding and overwintering birds with a hierarchically nested sampling design, and used linear mixed models to analyze changes in bird assemblages along an exposure gradient in South China. Total bird abundance and species diversity decreased with e-waste severity (exposed < surrounding < reference), reflecting the decreasing discharge and consequent side effects. Twenty-five breeding species exclusively used natural farmland, and nine species decreased significantly in relative abundance at e-waste polluted sites. A high pairwise similarity between exposed and surrounding sites indicates a diffuse effect of pollutants on the species assembly at local scale. We show that sensitivity to e-waste severity varies substantially across functional guild, with the prevalence of woodland insectivorous and grassland specialists declining, while some open farmland generalists such as arboreal frugivores, and terrestrial granivores were also rare. By contrast, the response of waterbirds, omnivorous and non-breeding visitors seem to be tolerable to a wide range of pollution so far. These findings underscore that improper e-waste dismantling results in a severe decline of bird diversity, and the different bird assemblages on polluted and natural farmlands imply species- and guild-dependent susceptibility with functional traits. Moreover, a better understanding of the impact of e-waste with different pollution levels, combined multiple pollutants, and in a food-web context on bird is required in future. PMID:25811881

Patterns of Senescence in Human Cardiovascular Fitness: VO2max in Subsistence and Industrialized Populations

PubMed Central

Pisor, Anne C.; Gurven, Michael; Blackwell, Aaron D.; Kaplan, Hillard; Yetish, Gandhi

2014-01-01

Objectives This study explores whether cardiovascular fitness levels and senescent decline are similar in the Tsimane of Bolivia and Canadians, as well as other subsistence and industrialized populations. Among Tsimane, we examine whether morbidity predicts lower levels and faster decline of cardiovascular fitness, or whether their lifestyle (e.g., high physical activity) promotes high levels and slow decline. Alternatively, high activity levels and morbidity might counterbalance such that Tsimane fitness levels and decline are similar to those in industrialized populations. Methods Maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) was estimated using a step test heart rate method for 701 participants. We compared these estimates to the Canadian Health Measures Survey and previous studies in industrialized and subsistence populations. We evaluated whether health indicators and proxies for market integration were associated with VO2max levels and rate of decline for the Tsimane. Results The Tsimane have significantly higher levels of VO2max and slower rates of decline than Canadians; initial evidence suggests differences in VO2max levels between other subsistence and industrialized populations. Low hemoglobin predicts low VO2max for Tsimane women while helminth infection predicts high VO2max for Tsimane men, though results might be specific to the VO2max scaling parameter used. No variables tested interact with age to moderate decline. Conclusions The Tsimane demonstrate higher levels of cardiovascular fitness than industrialized populations, but levels similar to other subsistence populations. The high VO2max of Tsimane is consistent with their high physical activity and few indicators of cardiovascular disease, measured in previous studies. PMID:24022886

Evaluation of Delisting Criteria and Rebuilding Schedules for Snake River Spring/Summer Chinook, Fall Chinook and Sockeye Salmon : Recovery Issues for Threatened and Endangered Snake River Salmon : Technical Report 10 of 11.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Cramer, Steven P.; Neeley, Doug

1993-06-01

We develop a framework for distinguishing healthy and threatened populations, and we analyze specific criteria by which these terms can be measured for threatened populations of salmon in the Snake River. We review reports and analyze existing data on listed populations of salmon in the Snake River to establish a framework for two stages of the recovery process: (1) defining de-listing criteria, and (2) estimating the percentage increase in survival that will be necessary for recovery of the population within specified time frames, given the de-listing criteria that must be achieved. We develop and apply a simplified population model tomore » estimate the percentage improvement in survival that will be necessary to achieve different rates of recovery. We considered five main concepts identifying de-listing criteria: (1) minimum population size, (2) rates of population change, (3) number of population subunits, (4) survival rates, and (5) driving variables. In considering minimum population size, we conclude that high variation in survival rates poses a substantially greater probability of causing extinction than does loss of genetic variation. Distinct population subunits exist and affect both the genetic variability of the population and the dynamics of population decline and growth. We distinguish between two types of population subunits, (1) genetic and (2) geographic, and we give examples of their effects on population recovery.« less

The epidemiology of chronic critical illness in the United States*.

PubMed

Kahn, Jeremy M; Le, Tri; Angus, Derek C; Cox, Christopher E; Hough, Catherine L; White, Douglas B; Yende, Sachin; Carson, Shannon S

2015-02-01

The epidemiology of chronic critical illness is not well characterized. We sought to determine the prevalence, outcomes, and associated costs of chronic critical illness in the United States. Population-based cohort study using data from the United States Healthcare Costs and Utilization Project from 2004 to 2009. Acute care hospitals in Massachusetts, North Carolina, Nebraska, New York, and Washington. Adult and pediatric patients meeting a consensus-derived definition for chronic critical illness, which included one of six eligible clinical conditions (prolonged acute mechanical ventilation, tracheotomy, stroke, traumatic brain injury, sepsis, or severe wounds) plus at least 8 days in an ICU. None. Out of 3,235,741 admissions to an ICU during the study period, 246,151 (7.6%) met the consensus definition for chronic critical illness. The most common eligibility conditions were prolonged acute mechanical ventilation (72.0% of eligible admissions) and sepsis (63.7% of eligible admissions). Among patients meeting chronic critical illness criteria through sepsis, the infections were community acquired in 48.5% and hospital acquired in 51.5%. In-hospital mortality was 30.9% with little change over the study period. The overall population-based prevalence was 34.4 per 100,000. The prevalence varied substantially with age, peaking at 82.1 per 100,000 individuals 75-79 years old but then declining coincident with a rise in mortality before day 8 in otherwise eligible patients. Extrapolating to the entire United States, for 2009, we estimated a total of 380,001 cases; 107,880 in-hospital deaths and $26 billion in hospital-related costs. Using a consensus-based definition, the prevalence, hospital mortality, and costs of chronic critical illness are substantial. Chronic critical illness is particularly common in the elderly although in very old patients the prevalence declines, in part because of an increase in early mortality among potentially eligible patients.

A retrospective analysis of pollen host plant use by stable and declining bumble bee species.

PubMed

Kleijn, David; Raemakers, Ivo

2008-07-01

Understanding population declines has been the objective of a wide range of ecological studies. When species have become rare such studies are complicated because particular behavior or life history traits may be the cause but also the result of the decline of a species. We approached this problem by studying species' characteristics on specimens that were collected before the onset of their decline and preserved in natural history museums. In northwestern Europe, some bumble bee species declined dramatically during the 20th century whereas other, ecologically similar, species maintained stable populations. A long-standing debate focuses on whether this is caused by declining species having stricter host plant preferences. We compared the composition of pollen loads of five bumble bee species with stable populations and five with declining populations using museum specimens collected before 1950 in Belgium, England, and The Netherlands. Prior to 1950, the number of plant taxa in pollen loads of declining species was almost one-third lower than that in stable species even though individuals of stable and declining species generally originated from the same areas. There were no systematic differences in the composition of pollen loads between stable and declining species, but the plant taxa preferred by declining species before 1950 had experienced a stronger decline in the 20th century than those preferred by stable species. In 2004 and 2005, we surveyed the areas where bumble bees had been caught in the past and compared the composition of past and present pollen loads of the stable, but not of the by now locally extinct declining species. The number of collected pollen taxa was similar, but the composition differed significantly between the two periods. Differences in composition reflected the major changes in land use in northwestern Europe but also the spread of the invasive plant species Impatiens glandulifera. The main question now is why declining species apparently were not able to switch to less preferred food plants when stable species were. This study shows that natural history collections can play an important role in improving our understanding of the ecological mechanisms driving species population change.

Population status of Kittlitz's and Marbled Murrelets and surveys for other marine bird and mammal species in the Kenai Fjords area, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

van Pelt, Thomas I.; Piatt, John F.

2003-01-01

The Kittlitz's murrelet (Brachyramphus brevirostris) is a rare seabird that nests in alpine terrain and generally forages near tidewater glaciers during the breeding season. More than 95% of the global population breeds in Alaska, with the remainder occurring in the Russian Far East. A global population estimate using best-available data in the early 1990s was 20,000 individuals. However, survey data from two core areas (Prince William Sound and Glacier Bay) suggest that populations have declined by 80-90% during the past 10-20 years. In response to these declines, a coalition of environmental groups petitioned the USFWS in May of 2001 to list the Kittlitz’s murrelet under the Endangered Species Act. In 2002, we began a three-year project to examine population status and trend of Kittlitz’s Murrelets in areas where distribution and abundance are poorly known. Here we report on the first field season, focused on the south coast of the Kenai Peninsula. We re-surveyed selected historical transects to evaluate trends, and surveyed new transects for improved population estimation during early July 2002. From a total of 66 Kittlitz’s Murrelets seen on transects, we estimate a total population of 509 Kittlitz’s Murrelets along the south coast of the Kenai Peninsula. Comparisons with past surveys suggest a decline of 83% since 1976, with an average rate of decline calculated as–6.9 % per annum. This decline is in agreement with population declines observed elsewhere in the species’ core glaciated range, indicating that steep population declines observed to date are likely to be a range-wide phenomenon. While the focus of the study was Kittlitz’s Murrelets, other species of marine birds and mammals were also surveyed. Populations of the closely related Marbled Murrelet appear to have increased during the same time period. The abundance and distribution of other species are presented in appendices.

Factors Influencing the Decline in Stroke Mortality

PubMed Central

Lackland, Daniel T.; Roccella, Edward J.; Deutsch, Anne; Fornage, Myriam; George, Mary G.; Howard, George; Kissela, Brett; Kittner, Steven J.; Lichtman, Judith H.; Lisabeth, Lynda; Schwamm, Lee H.; Smith, Eric E.; Towfighi, Amytis

2017-01-01

Background and Purpose Stroke mortality has been declining since the early twentieth century. The reasons for this are not completely understood, although the decline is welcome. As a result of recent striking and more accelerated decreases in stroke mortality, stroke has fallen from the third to the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. This has prompted a detailed assessment of the factors associated with this decline. This review considers the evidence of various contributors to the decline in stroke risk and mortality and can be used in the design of future interventions regarding this major public health burden. Methods Writing group members were nominated by the committee chair and co-chair on the basis of their previous work in relevant topic areas and were approved by the American Heart Association (AHA) Stroke Council’s Scientific Statement Oversight Committee and the AHA’s Manuscript Oversight Committee. The writers used systematic literature reviews, references to published clinical and epidemiology studies, morbidity and mortality reports, clinical and public health guidelines, authoritative statements, personal files, and expert opinion to summarize evidence and indicate gaps in current knowledge. All members of the writing group had the opportunity to comment and approved the final version of this document. The document underwent extensive AHA internal peer review, Stroke Council Leadership review and Scientific Statements Oversight Committee review before consideration and approval by the AHA Science Advisory and Coordinating Committee. Results The decline in stroke mortality over the past decades represents a major improvement in population health and is observed for both genders, and all race and age groups. In addition to the overall impact on fewer lives lost to stroke, the major decline in stroke mortality seen among individuals less than 65 years of age represents a reduction on years of potential life lost. The decline in mortality results from reduced stroke incidence and lower case fatality rates. These significant improvements in stroke outcomes are concurrent with cardiovascular risk factor control interventions. While it is difficult to calculate specific attributable risk estimates, the hypertension control efforts initiated in the 1970s appears to have had the most substantial influence on the accelerated stroke mortality decline. Although implemented later in the time period, diabetes and dyslipidemia control and smoking cessation programs, particularly in combination with hypertension treatment, also appear to have contributed to the stroke mortality decline. Telemedicine and stroke systems of care, while showing strong potential effects, have not been in place long enough to show their influence on the decline. Other factors had probable effects, but additional studies are needed to determine their contributions. Conclusion The decline in stroke mortality is real and represents a major public health and clinical medicine success story. The repositioning of stroke from 3rd to 4th leading cause of death is the result of true mortality decline and not an increase of chronic lung disease mortality, which is now the 3rd leading cause of death in the United States. There is strong evidence the decline can be attributed to a combination of interventions and programs based on scientific findings and implemented with the purpose to reduce stroke risks, the most likely being improved hypertension control. Thus, research studies and the application of their findings to develop intervention programs have improved the health of the population. The continued application of aggressive evidence-based public health programs and clinical interventions are expected to result in further declines in stroke mortality. PMID:24309587

Habitat availability is a more plausible explanation than insecticide acute toxicity for U.S. grassland bird species declines

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hill, Jason M.; Egan, J. Franklin; Stauffer, Glenn E.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2014-01-01

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) “grassland breeding” bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980–2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3–21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into existing agricultural landscapes.

Habitat availability is a more plausible explanation than insecticide acute toxicity for U.S. grassland bird species declines.

PubMed

Hill, Jason M; Egan, J Franklin; Stauffer, Glenn E; Diefenbach, Duane R

2014-01-01

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) "grassland breeding" bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980-2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3-21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into existing agricultural landscapes.

Trends in preterm birth and perinatal mortality among singletons: United States, 1989 through 2000.

PubMed

Ananth, Cande V; Joseph, K S; Oyelese, Yinka; Demissie, Kitaw; Vintzileos, Anthony M

2005-05-01

Despite the recent increase in preterm birth in the United States, trends in preterm birth subtypes have not been adequately examined. We examined trends in preterm birth among singletons following ruptured membranes, medical indications, and spontaneous preterm birth and evaluated the impact of these trends on perinatal mortality. A population-based, retrospective cohort study comprising 46,375,578 women (16% blacks) who delivered singleton births in the United States, 1989 through 2000, was performed. Rates of preterm birth (< 37 weeks), their subtypes, and associated perinatal mortality (stillbirths at >/= 22 weeks plus neonatal deaths within 28 days), before and after adjustment for potential confounders, were derived from ecological logistic regression models. Preterm birth rates increased by 14% (95% confidence interval 13-15%) among whites from 8.3% to 9.4% and decreased by 15% (95% confidence interval 14-16%) among blacks from 18.5% to 16.2% between 1989 and 2000. Among whites, preterm birth following ruptured membranes declined by 23%, medically indicated preterm birth increased by 55%, and spontaneous preterm birth increased by 3%. Among blacks, preterm birth following ruptured membranes declined by 37%, medically indicated preterm birth increased by 32%, and spontaneous preterm birth decreased by 27%. The largest decline in perinatal mortality among whites was associated with increases in medically indicated preterm birth, whereas the largest decline in perinatal mortality among blacks was associated with declines in preterm birth following ruptured membranes and spontaneous preterm birth. Temporal trends in preterm birth varied substantially based on underlying subtype and maternal race. The recent increase in medically indicated preterm birth was associated with a favorable reduction in perinatal mortality.

Habitat Availability Is a More Plausible Explanation than Insecticide Acute Toxicity for U.S. Grassland Bird Species Declines

PubMed Central

Hill, Jason M.; Egan, J. Franklin; Stauffer, Glenn E.; Diefenbach, Duane R.

2014-01-01

Grassland bird species have experienced substantial declines in North America. These declines have been largely attributed to habitat loss and degradation, especially from agricultural practices and intensification (the habitat-availability hypothesis). A recent analysis of North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) “grassland breeding” bird trends reported the surprising conclusion that insecticide acute toxicity was a better correlate of grassland bird declines in North America from 1980–2003 (the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis) than was habitat loss through agricultural intensification. In this paper we reached the opposite conclusion. We used an alternative statistical approach with additional habitat covariates to analyze the same grassland bird trends over the same time frame. Grassland bird trends were positively associated with increases in area of Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) lands and cropland used as pasture, whereas the effect of insecticide acute toxicity on bird trends was uncertain. Our models suggested that acute insecticide risk potentially has a detrimental effect on grassland bird trends, but models representing the habitat-availability hypothesis were 1.3–21.0 times better supported than models representing the insecticide-acute-toxicity hypothesis. Based on point estimates of effect sizes, CRP area and agricultural intensification had approximately 3.6 and 1.6 times more effect on grassland bird trends than lethal insecticide risk, respectively. Our findings suggest that preserving remaining grasslands is crucial to conserving grassland bird populations. The amount of grassland that has been lost in North America since 1980 is well documented, continuing, and staggering whereas insecticide use greatly declined prior to the 1990s. Grassland birds will likely benefit from the de-intensification of agricultural practices and the interspersion of pastures, Conservation Reserve Program lands, rangelands and other grassland habitats into existing agricultural landscapes. PMID:24846309

Predicting Metapopulation Responses to Conservation in Human-Dominated Landscapes

Treesearch

Zachary S. Ladin; Vincent D' Amico; Jan M. Baetens; Roland R. Roth; W. Gregory Shriver

2016-01-01

Loss of habitat to urbanization is a primary cause of population declines as human-dominated landscapes expand at increasing rates. Understanding how the relative effects of different conservation strategies is important to slow population declines for species in urban landscapes. We studied the wood thrush Hylocichla mustelina, a declining forest-...

Amphibian and reptile declines over 35 years at La Selva, Costa Rica

PubMed Central

Whitfield, Steven M.; Bell, Kristen E.; Philippi, Thomas; Sasa, Mahmood; Bolaños, Federico; Chaves, Gerardo; Savage, Jay M.; Donnelly, Maureen A.

2007-01-01

Amphibians stand at the forefront of a global biodiversity crisis. More than one-third of amphibian species are globally threatened, and over 120 species have likely suffered global extinction since 1980. Most alarmingly, many rapid declines and extinctions are occurring in pristine sites lacking obvious adverse effects of human activities. The causes of these “enigmatic” declines remain highly contested. Still, lack of long-term data on amphibian populations severely limits our understanding of the distribution of amphibian declines, and therefore the ultimate causes of these declines. Here, we identify a systematic community-wide decline in populations of terrestrial amphibians at La Selva Biological Station, a protected old-growth lowland rainforest in lower Central America. We use data collected over 35 years to show that population density of all species of terrestrial amphibians has declined by ≈75% since 1970, and we show identical trends for all species of common reptiles. The trends we identify are neither consistent with recent emergence of chytridiomycosis nor the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis, two leading putative causes of enigmatic amphibian declines. Instead, our data suggest that declines are due to climate-driven reductions in the quantity of standing leaf litter, a critical microhabitat for amphibians and reptiles in this assemblage. Our results raise further concerns about the global persistence of amphibian populations by identifying widespread declines in species and habitats that are not currently recognized as susceptible to such risks. PMID:17449638

Survival rates of female white-tailed deer on an industrial forest following a decline in population density

Treesearch

Shawn M. Crimmins; John W. Edwards; Patrick D. Keyser; James M. Crum; W. Mark Ford; Brad F. Miller; Tyler A. Campbell; Karl V. Miller

2013-01-01

With white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations at historically high levels throughout many North American forests, many current management activities are aimed at reducing deer populations. However, very little information exists on the ecology of low-density white-tailed deer populations or populations that have declined in density. We...

The wealth of distinguished doctors: retrospective survey

PubMed Central

McManus, I C

2005-01-01

Objective To assess changes in the wealth of distinguished doctors in the United Kingdom between 1860 and 2001. Design Retrospective survey. Setting The UK. Participants 980 doctors of sufficient distinction to be included in the Oxford Dictionary of National Biography and who died between 1860 and 2001. Main outcome measures Wealth at death, based on probate records and adjusted relative to average earnings in 2002. Results The wealth of distinguished doctors declined substantially between 1860 and 2001, and paralleled a decline in the relative income of doctors in general. The wealth of distinguished doctors also declined relative to other groups of distinguished individuals. Conclusions In the 19th century, distinction in doctors was accompanied by substantial wealth, whereas by the end of the 20th century, the most distinguished doctors were less wealthy than their contemporaries who had achieved national distinction in other areas. PMID:16373738

Honduras.

PubMed

1985-08-01

This discussion of Honduras covers the following: the history of the country's demographic situation; the government's overall approach to population problems; population data systems and development planning; institutional arrangements for the integration of population within development planning; the goverment's view of the importance of population policy in realizing development objectives; population size, growth, and natural increase; morbidity and mortality; fertility; international migration; and spatial distribution. Between the censuses of 1910-40, Honduras grew at an average annual rate of more than 1.5% per annum. The rate of population growth reached 2% per annum after 1940 and 3% after about 1955. By 1970-75 the rate of natural increase was estimated to be about 3.5% per annum, due to the net effect of a crude birthrate of 49/1000 and a crude death rate of about 14/1000. The rate of natural increase has remained around 3.5% in recent years, although the crude death rate has declined to 44/1000 and the crude death rate to about 10/1000. The government wants to substantially reduce the rate of population growth, primarily by means of modifying fertility and averting large-scale immigration of refugees in the future. It desires to reduce the country's high levels of mortality and to adjust patterns of spatial distribution, primarily to improve agricultural productivity and promote national economic intergration. The government also seeks to decrease the emigration of qualified personnel. In the past several years, the government of Honduras has increased its commitment to formulating and implementing explicit population policies as a means of attaining overall development objcetives. With a population of around 4.1 million inhabitants as of 1983, Honduras has been growing at an average annual rate of 3.4% in recent years. According to UN projections, the population is expected to grow to about 7 million by 2000. The average life expectancy at birth for both sexes was 55.3 years in 1974 and around 60 years as of 1982. The crude death rate was estimated to be 10/1000 during 1980-85; infant mortality declined from 117/1000 live births in 1971-72 to 86/1000 in 1978. Diarrheal disease is the single most important cause of death in Honduras, and mortality from other water-related diseases remains high in comparison with other Central American countries. Malnutrition also is serious. The government considers levels and trends of mortality to be unacceptable and is particularly concerned about the continuing high level of infant mortality. In recent years the crude birthrate averaged around 44/1000; the 1981 Contraceptive Prevalence Survey found the total fertility rate to be about 6.5 births/woman, which represents a 13% decline in the level of fertility between 1971-72 and 1981.

Monarch butterfly population decline in North America: identifying the threatening processes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Oberhauser, Karen; Drum, Ryan G.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Altizer, Sonia; Taylor, Orley R.; Pleasants, John M.; Semmens, Darius J.; Semmens, Brice X.; Erickson, Richard A.; Libby, Kaitlin; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura

2017-01-01

The monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America has sharply declined over the last two decades. Despite rising concern over the monarch butterfly's status, no comprehensive study of the factors driving this decline has been conducted. Using partial least-squares regressions and time-series analysis, we investigated climatic and habitat-related factors influencing monarch population size from 1993 to 2014. Potential threats included climatic factors, habitat loss (milkweed and overwinter forest), disease and agricultural insecticide use (neonicotinoids). While climatic factors, principally breeding season temperature, were important determinants of annual variation in abundance, our results indicated strong negative relationships between population size and habitat loss variables, principally glyphosate use, but also weaker negative effects from the loss of overwinter forest and breeding season use of neonicotinoids. Further declines in population size because of glyphosate application are not expected. Thus, if remaining threats to habitat are mitigated we expect climate-induced stochastic variation of the eastern migratory population of monarch butterfly around a relatively stationary population size.

Instruction and Students' Declining Interest in Science: An Analysis of German Fourth- and Sixth-Grade Classrooms

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tröbst, Steffen; Kleickmann, Thilo; Lange-Schubert, Kim; Rothkopf, Anne; Möller, Kornelia

2016-01-01

Students' interest in science declines substantially in the transition from elementary to secondary education. Using students' ratings of their instruction on the topic of evaporation and condensation, we examined if changes in instructional practices accounted for differences in situational interest in science instruction and enduring individual…

Physical Activity as a Moderator of the Relationship between Aging and Inductive Reasoning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Perrot, Alexandra; Gagnon, Christine; Bertsch, Jean

2009-01-01

A relatively universal observation in aging studies is that cognitive functions inevitably decline across the adult life span. More specifically, executive functions decline substantially with age, as do the frontal and prefrontal brain regions that support them. Indeed, these regions are subject to important neurological modifications with…

Public land grazing for private land conservation?

Treesearch

Adriana Sulak; Lynn Huntsinger; Sheila Barry; Larry Forero

2008-01-01

California ranchers with substantial private oak woodlands sometimes use public lands as an important component of their production cycle. Yet allowed public grazing has declined and is likely to continue to decline. This, combined with intensifying development pressure and land use change, dramatically affects the resource base for ranch operations, which in turn...

Use of multiple dispersal pathways facilitates amphibian persistence in stream networks.

PubMed

Campbell Grant, Evan H; Nichols, James D; Lowe, Winsor H; Fagan, William F

2010-04-13

Although populations of amphibians are declining worldwide, there is no evidence that salamanders occupying small streams are experiencing enigmatic declines, and populations of these species seem stable. Theory predicts that dispersal through multiple pathways can stabilize populations, preventing extinction in habitat networks. However, empirical data to support this prediction are absent for most species, especially those at risk of decline. Our mark-recapture study of stream salamanders reveals both a strong upstream bias in dispersal and a surprisingly high rate of overland dispersal to adjacent headwater streams. This evidence of route-dependent variation in dispersal rates suggests a spatial mechanism for population stability in headwater-stream salamanders. Our results link the movement behavior of stream salamanders to network topology, and they underscore the importance of identifying and protecting critical dispersal pathways when addressing region-wide population declines.

Use of multiple dispersal pathways facilitates amphibian persistence in stream networks

USGS Publications Warehouse

Campbell, Grant E.H.; Nichols, J.D.; Lowe, W.H.; Fagan, W.F.

2010-01-01

Although populations of amphibians are declining worldwide, there is no evidence that salamanders occupying small streams are experiencing enigmatic declines, and populations of these species seem stable. Theory predicts that dispersal through multiple pathways can stabilize populations, preventing extinction in habitat networks. However, empirical data to support this prediction are absent for most species, especially those at risk of decline. Our mark-recapture study of stream salamanders reveals both a strong upstream bias in dispersal and a surprisingly high rate of overland dispersal to adjacent headwater streams. This evidence of route-dependent variation in dispersal rates suggests a spatial mechanism for population stability in headwater-stream salamanders. Our results link the movement behavior of stream salamanders to network topology, and they underscore the importance of identifying and protecting critical dispersal pathways when addressing region-wide population declines.

Use of multiple dispersal pathways facilitates amphibian persistence in stream networks

PubMed Central

Campbell Grant, Evan H.; Nichols, James D.; Lowe, Winsor H.; Fagan, William F.

2010-01-01

Although populations of amphibians are declining worldwide, there is no evidence that salamanders occupying small streams are experiencing enigmatic declines, and populations of these species seem stable. Theory predicts that dispersal through multiple pathways can stabilize populations, preventing extinction in habitat networks. However, empirical data to support this prediction are absent for most species, especially those at risk of decline. Our mark-recapture study of stream salamanders reveals both a strong upstream bias in dispersal and a surprisingly high rate of overland dispersal to adjacent headwater streams. This evidence of route-dependent variation in dispersal rates suggests a spatial mechanism for population stability in headwater-stream salamanders. Our results link the movement behavior of stream salamanders to network topology, and they underscore the importance of identifying and protecting critical dispersal pathways when addressing region-wide population declines. PMID:20351269

Population Abundance and Ecosystem Service Provision: The Case of Birds

PubMed Central

Gaston, Kevin J; Cox, Daniel T C; Canavelli, Sonia B; García, Daniel; Hughes, Baz; Maas, Bea; Martínez, Daniel; Ogada, Darcy; Inger, Richard

2018-01-01

Abstract Although there is a diversity of concerns about recent persistent declines in the abundances of many species, the implications for the associated delivery of ecosystem services to people are surprisingly poorly understood. In principle, there are a broad range of potential functional relationships between the abundance of a species or group of species and the magnitude of ecosystem-service provision. Here, we identify the forms these relationships are most likely to take. Focusing on the case of birds, we review the empirical evidence for these functional relationships, with examples of supporting, regulating, and cultural services. Positive relationships between abundance and ecosystem-service provision are the norm (although seldom linear), we found no evidence for hump-shaped relationships, and negative ones were limited to cultural services that value rarity. Given the magnitude of abundance declines among many previously common species, it is likely that there have been substantial losses of ecosystem services, providing important implications for the identification of potential tipping points in relation to defaunation resilience, biodiversity conservation, and human well-being. PMID:29686433

Recruitment of burbot (Lota lota L.) in Lake Erie: An empirical modelling approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Stapanian, M.A.; Witzel, L.D.; Cook, A.

2010-01-01

World-wide, many burbot Lota lota (L.) populations have been extirpated or are otherwise in need of conservation measures. By contrast, burbot made a dramatic recovery in Lake Erie during 1993-2001 but declined during 2002-2007, due in part to a sharp decrease in recruitment. We used Akaike's Information Criterion to evaluate 129 linear regression models that included all combinations of one to seven ecological indices as predictors of burbot recruitment. Two models were substantially supported by the data: (i) the number of days in which water temperatures were within optimal ranges for burbot spawning and development combined with biomass of yearling and older (YAO) yellow perch Perca flavescens (Mitchill); and (ii) biomass of YAO yellow perch. Warmer winter water temperatures and increases in yellow perch biomass were associated with decreases in burbot recruitment. Continued warm winter water temperatures could result in declines in burbot recruitment, particularly in the southern part of the species' range. Published 2010. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Future Estimation of Convenience Living Facilities Withdrawal due to Population Decline all Over Japan from 2010 TO 2040 - Focus on Supermarkets, Convenience Stores and Drugstores

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nishimoto, Yuka; Akiyama, Yuki; Shibasaki, Ryosuke

2016-06-01

Population explosion is considered to be one of the most crucial problems in the world. However, in Japan, the opposite problem: population decline has become serious now. Japanese population is estimated to decrease by twenty millions in 2040. This negative situation will cause to increase areas where many residents cannot make a daily living all over Japan because many convenience living facilities such as supermarkets, convenience stores and drugstores will be difficult to maintain their market area population due to future population decline. In our research, we used point data of convenience living facilities developed by address geocoding of digital telephone directory and point data of future population projection developed by distribution of Japanese official population projection data proportionally among the building volume of digital residential map, which can monitor building volumes all over Japan. In conclusion, we estimated that various convenience living facilities in Japan will shrink and close by population decline in near future. In particular, it is cleared that approximately 14.7% of supermarkets will be possible to withdraw all over Japan by 2040. In addition, it is cleared that over 40% of supermarkets in some countryside prefectures will be possible to withdraw by 2040. Thus, we estimated future distributions of convenience living facilities that cannot maintain their market area population due to future population decline. Moreover, we estimated the number of people that they will become inconvenience in buying fresh foods.

Eastern Whip-poor-wills (Antrostomus vociferus) are positively associated with low elevation forest In the central Appalachians

USGS Publications Warehouse

Slover, Christina L.; Katzner, Todd E.

2016-01-01

Populations of the Eastern Whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferus) are thought to be declining because of a range of potential factors including habitat loss, pesticide use, and predation. However, this species is nocturnal and, as a consequence, it is poorly studied, and its population status is not well assessed by traditional diurnal bird surveys. We used nocturnal road surveys to study habitat associations and distribution of Eastern Whip-poor-wills to better understand and contextualize their population status and to provide a framework for subsequent research and management. We used occupancy models to associate presence of Eastern Whip-poor-wills with habitat characteristics. Global models with habitat associations at a radius of 1600 m (1.0-ha area) were the best supported by the data, suggesting that this was the scale at which the species responded to the habitat parameters we measured. At this scale, Eastern Whip-poor-wills most frequently occupied areas lower in elevation and characterized by forested, herbaceous, and wetland cover types. In contrast, high elevation conifer forest communities had substantially fewer Eastern Whip-poor-wills. Detection rates were positively correlated with moon visibility and negatively correlated with noise. We used the results of our surveys to generate a regional model to predict distributions of Eastern Whip-poor-wills and that can be used as a framework for future management. Our results suggest that succession of agricultural fields and other clearings into forested habitats with dense understory may be a contributing factor to ongoing declines of Eastern Whip-poor-wills.

Continent-wide tracking to determine migratory connectivity and tropical habitat associations of a declining aerial insectivore.

PubMed

Fraser, Kevin C; Stutchbury, Bridget J M; Silverio, Cassandra; Kramer, Patrick M; Barrow, John; Newstead, David; Mickle, Nanette; Cousens, Bruce F; Lee, J Charlene; Morrison, Danielle M; Shaheen, Tim; Mammenga, Paul; Applegate, Kelly; Tautin, John

2012-12-22

North American birds that feed on flying insects are experiencing steep population declines, particularly long-distance migratory populations in the northern breeding range. We determine, for the first time, the level of migratory connectivity across the range of a songbird using direct tracking of individuals, and test whether declining northern populations have higher exposure to agricultural landscapes at their non-breeding grounds in South America. We used light-level geolocators to track purple martins, Progne subis, originating from North American breeding populations, coast-to-coast (n = 95 individuals). We show that breeding populations of the eastern subspecies, P. s. subis, that are separated by ca. 2000 km, nevertheless have almost completely overlapping non-breeding ranges in Brazil. Most (76%) P. s. subis overwintered in northern Brazil near the Amazon River, not in the agricultural landscape of southern Brazil. Individual non-breeding sites had an average of 91 per cent forest and only 4 per cent agricultural ground cover within a 50 km radius, and birds originating from declining northern breeding populations were not more exposed to agricultural landscapes than stable southern breeding populations. Our results show that differences in wintering location and habitat do not explain recent trends in breeding population declines in this species, and instead northern populations may be constrained in their ability to respond to climate change.

Status and Conservation of the Bobolink (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) in Argentina

Treesearch

Adrian S. Di Giacomo; Alejandro G. Di Giacomo; Julio R. Contreras

2005-01-01

It is clear that grassland bird populations have declined significantly during the last 30 years. Declines are widespread in North America, making grassland birds a continental conservation priority. In New England and New York steep population declines for many species warranted listing in many states. Habitat loss through farm abandonment and the subsequent...

Effects of white-nose syndrome on regional population patterns of 3 hibernating bat species.

PubMed

Ingersoll, Thomas E; Sewall, Brent J; Amelon, Sybill K

2016-10-01

Hibernating bats have undergone severe recent declines across the eastern United States, but the cause of these regional-scale declines has not been systematically evaluated. We assessed the influence of white-nose syndrome (an emerging bat disease caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans, formerly Geomyces destructans) on large-scale, long-term population patterns in the little brown myotis (Myotis lucifugus), the northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis), and the tricolored bat (Perimyotis subflavus). We modeled population trajectories for each species on the basis of an extensive data set of winter hibernacula counts of more than 1 million individual bats from a 4-state region over 13 years and with data on locations of hibernacula and first detections of white-nose syndrome at each hibernaculum. We used generalized additive mixed models to determine population change relative to expectations, that is, how population trajectories differed with a colony's infection status, how trajectories differed with distance from the point of introduction of white-nose syndrome, and whether declines were concordant with first local observation of the disease. Population trajectories in all species met at least one of the 3 expectations, but none met all 3. Our results suggest, therefore, that white-nose syndrome has affected regional populations differently than was previously understood and has not been the sole cause of declines. Specifically, our results suggest that in some areas and species, threats other than white-nose syndrome are also contributing to population declines, declines linked to white-nose syndrome have spread across large geographic areas with unexpected speed, and the disease or other threats led to declines in bat populations for years prior to disease detection. Effective conservation will require further research to mitigate impacts of white-nose syndrome, renewed attention to other threats to bats, and improved surveillance efforts to ensure early detection of white-nose syndrome. © 2016 Society for Conservation Biology.

Population ecology of insect invasions and their management

Treesearch

Andrew M. Liebhold; Patrick C. Tobin

2008-01-01

During the establishment phase of a biological invasion, population dynamics are strongly influenced by Allee effects and stochastic dynamics, both of which may lead to extinction of low-density populations. Allee effects refer to a decline in population growth rate with a decline in abundance and can arise from various mechanisms. Strategies to eradicate newly...

Demographics and diaspora, gender and genealogy: anthropological notes on Greek population policy.

PubMed

Paxson, H

1997-01-01

Since World War II, Greece's birth rate has fallen into a worsening decline. With the steady emigration of Greeks throughout the century to North America, Australia, and Germany, Greece has experienced one of the most rapid population declines in Europe. In 1991, the PASOK government convened a special Parliamentary Commission to study the demographic problem and develop recommendations for its resolution. Released in 1993, and comparing Greece's depressed population growth rates with the markedly higher ones of Albania and Turkey, the report argues that the demographic problem is one of national survival because a decline in the population undermines the territorial integrity and national independence of the country. At least half of all pregnancies in Greece end in abortion, and the report attributes 40% of the declining population growth rate to women who have repeat abortions. To confront the population dilemma, Greek officials are downplaying the diaspora and encouraging women at home to produce more babies. Maternal pensions forwarded by the state as family and population policies are being criticized by Athenian women as a means of professionalizing motherhood and perpetuating a limited vision of female adulthood. The author explores why the declining birth rate is considered to be such a problem in Greece, even though the other countries of Europe are also experiencing birth rate declines; why and how women are blamed for the demographic situation; and why the state, despite its vehement rhetoric, has failed to implement a family policy capable of boosting fertility.

Ancient and Contemporary DNA Reveal a Pre-Human Decline but No Population Bottleneck Associated with Recent Human Persecution in the Kea (Nestor notabilis)

PubMed Central

Dussex, Nicolas; Rawlence, Nicolas J.; Robertson, Bruce C.

2015-01-01

The impact of population bottlenecks is an important factor to consider when assessing species survival. Population declines can considerably limit the evolutionary potential of species and make them more susceptible to stochastic events. New Zealand has a well documented history of decline of endemic avifauna related to human colonization. Here, we investigate the genetic effects of a recent population decline in the endangered kea (Nestor notabilis). Kea have undergone a long-lasting persecution between the late 1800s to 1970s where an estimated 150,000 kea were culled under a governmental bounty scheme. Kea now number 1,000–5,000 individuals in the wild and it is likely that the recent population decline may have reduced the genetic diversity of the species. Comparison of contemporary (n = 410), historical (n = 15) and fossil samples (n = 4) showed a loss of mitochondrial diversity since the end of the last glaciation (Otiran Glacial) but no loss of overall genetic diversity associated with the cull. Microsatellite data indicated a recent bottleneck for only one population and a range-wide decline in Ne dating back some 300 – 6,000 years ago, a period predating European arrival in NZ. These results suggest that despite a recent human persecution, kea might have experienced a large population decline before stabilizing in numbers prior to human settlement of New Zealand in response to Holocene changes in habitat distribution. Our study therefore highlights the need to understand the respective effects of climate change and human activities on endangered species dynamics when proposing conservation guidelines. PMID:25719752

Factors influencing the decline in stroke mortality: a statement from the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association.

PubMed

Lackland, Daniel T; Roccella, Edward J; Deutsch, Anne F; Fornage, Myriam; George, Mary G; Howard, George; Kissela, Brett M; Kittner, Steven J; Lichtman, Judith H; Lisabeth, Lynda D; Schwamm, Lee H; Smith, Eric E; Towfighi, Amytis

2014-01-01

Stroke mortality has been declining since the early 20th century. The reasons for this are not completely understood, although the decline is welcome. As a result of recent striking and more accelerated decreases in stroke mortality, stroke has fallen from the third to the fourth leading cause of death in the United States. This has prompted a detailed assessment of the factors associated with the change in stroke risk and mortality. This statement considers the evidence for factors that have contributed to the decline and how they can be used in the design of future interventions for this major public health burden. Writing group members were nominated by the committee chair and co-chair on the basis of their previous work in relevant topic areas and were approved by the American Heart Association Stroke Council's Scientific Statements Oversight Committee and the American Heart Association Manuscript Oversight Committee. The writers used systematic literature reviews, references to published clinical and epidemiological studies, morbidity and mortality reports, clinical and public health guidelines, authoritative statements, personal files, and expert opinion to summarize evidence and to indicate gaps in current knowledge. All members of the writing group had the opportunity to comment on this document and approved the final version. The document underwent extensive American Heart Association internal peer review, Stroke Council leadership review, and Scientific Statements Oversight Committee review before consideration and approval by the American Heart Association Science Advisory and Coordinating Committee. The decline in stroke mortality over the past decades represents a major improvement in population health and is observed for both sexes and for all racial/ethnic and age groups. In addition to the overall impact on fewer lives lost to stroke, the major decline in stroke mortality seen among people <65 years of age represents a reduction in years of potential life lost. The decline in mortality results from reduced incidence of stroke and lower case-fatality rates. These significant improvements in stroke outcomes are concurrent with cardiovascular risk factor control interventions. Although it is difficult to calculate specific attributable risk estimates, efforts in hypertension control initiated in the 1970s appear to have had the most substantial influence on the accelerated decline in stroke mortality. Although implemented later, diabetes mellitus and dyslipidemia control and smoking cessation programs, particularly in combination with treatment of hypertension, also appear to have contributed to the decline in stroke mortality. The potential effects of telemedicine and stroke systems of care appear to be strong but have not been in place long enough to indicate their influence on the decline. Other factors had probable effects, but additional studies are needed to determine their contributions. The decline in stroke mortality is real and represents a major public health and clinical medicine success story. The repositioning of stroke from third to fourth leading cause of death is the result of true mortality decline and not an increase in mortality from chronic lung disease, which is now the third leading cause of death in the United States. There is strong evidence that the decline can be attributed to a combination of interventions and programs based on scientific findings and implemented with the purpose of reducing stroke risks, the most likely being improved control of hypertension. Thus, research studies and the application of their findings in developing intervention programs have improved the health of the population. The continued application of aggressive evidence-based public health programs and clinical interventions is expected to result in further declines in stroke mortality.

Pesticides and amphibian population declines in California, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sparling, Donald W.; Fellers, Gary M.; McConnell, Laura L.

2001-01-01

Several species of anuran amphibians have undergone drastic population declines in the western United States over the last 10 to 15 years. In California, the most severe declines are in the Sierra Mountains east of the Central Valley and downwind of the intensely agricultural San Joaquin Valley. In contrast, coastal and more northern populations across from the less agrarian Sacramento Valley are stable or declining less precipitously. In this article, we provide evidence that pesticides are instrumental in declines of these species. Using Hyla regilla as a sentinel species, we found that cholinesterase (ChE) activity in tadpoles was depressed in mountainous areas east of the Central Valley compared with sites along the coast or north of the Valley. Cholinesterase was also lower in areas where ranid population status was poor or moderate compared with areas with good ranid status. Up to 50% of the sampled population in areas with reduced ChE had detectable organophosphorus residues, with concentrations as high as 190 ppb wet weight. In addition, up to 86% of some populations had measurable endosulfan concentrations and 40% had detectable 4,4'- dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene, 4,4'-DDT, and 2,4'-DDT residues.

Population pressures in Latin America. [Updated reprint].

PubMed

Merrick, T W

1991-04-01

This publication examines the main demographic changes in Latin America since World War II, and considers their social and economic impact on the region. The paper looks at the following demographic trends: population growth, fertility, death rate, internal migration, international migration, and age structure. It also examines other factors such as marriage and family structure, and employment and education. Furthermore, the publication provides a discussion of the relationship between population growth and economic development from both a neo-Malthusian and Structuralist view. Finally, the paper considers the region's current population policies and future population prospects. From 1950-65, annual population growth averaged 2.8%, which decreased moderately to 2.4% from 1965-85. The report identified 3 population growth patterns in the region: 1) countries which experienced early and gradual declines in birth and death rates and generally lower population growth rates (the group includes Argentina, Cuba, Uruguay, with Chile and Panama also closely fitting the description); 2) countries which underwent rapid declines in birth rate during the 1950s and which began experiencing declines in the birth rate after 1960 (Brazil, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Paraguay, and Venezuela, with Ecuador and Peru as borderline cases); and 3) countries which didn't begin to experience declines in mortality rates until relatively late and which lag behind in fertility declines (Bolivia, Haiti, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, and Nicaragua). Although population growth has slowed and will continue to fall, UN projections do not expect the population to stabilize until late in the 21st Century.

A resilience approach can improve anadromous fish restoration

USGS Publications Warehouse

Waldman, John R.; Wilson, Karen A.; Mather, Martha E.; Snyder, Noah P.

2016-01-01

Most anadromous fish populations remain at low levels or are in decline despite substantial investments in restoration. We explore whether a resilience perspective (i.e., a different paradigm for understanding populations, communities, and ecosystems) is a viable alternative framework for anadromous fish restoration. Many life history traits have allowed anadromous fish to thrive in unimpacted ecosystems but have become contemporary curses as anthropogenic effects increase. This contradiction creates a significant conservation challenge but also makes these fish excellent candidates for a resilience approach. A resilience approach recognizes the need to maintain life history, population, and habitat characteristics that increase the ability of a population to withstand and recover from multiple disturbances. To evaluate whether a resilience approach represents a viable strategy for anadromous fish restoration, we review four issues: (1) how resilience theory can inform anadromous fish restoration, (2) how a resilience-based approach is fundamentally different than extant anadromous fish restoration strategies, (3) ecological characteristics that historically benefited anadromous fish persistence, and (4) examples of how human impacts harm anadromous fish and how a resilience approach might produce more successful outcomes. We close by suggesting new research and restoration directions for implementation of a resilience-based approach.

Frog decline, frog malformations, and a comparison of frog and human health.

PubMed

Cohen, M M

2001-11-22

The decline in frog populations and the increase in the frequency of frog malformations are discussed. Topics considered for analysis include chytridiomycosis, retinoids, UV-B radiation, chemical contaminants, environmental threats, introduced invasive species and predation, unsustainable use, and enigmatic decline. Care must be taken to distinguish between hypotheses, laboratory experiments, and the findings in feral frog populations. Clearly, the causes of population decline and malformations are heterogeneous. The subject of frogs and humans is addressed under three subheadings: the importance of frogs to human societies, medical implications of frog studies, and a comparison of frog and human disease factors. Copyright 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Substantial numerical decline in South Australian rabbit populations following the detection of rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus 2.

PubMed

Mutze, Greg; De Preu, Nicki; Mooney, Trish; Koerner, Dylan; McKenzie, Darren; Sinclair, Ron; Kovaliskli, John; Peacock, David

2018-05-19

Lagovirus europaeus GI.2, also commonly known as rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus 2, was first detected at two long-term monitoring sites for European rabbits, Oryctolagus cuniculus , in South Australia, in mid-2016. Numbers of rabbits in the following 12-18 months were reduced to approximately 20 per cent of average numbers in the preceding 10 years. The impact recorded at the two South Australian sites, if widespread in Australia and persistent for several years, is likely to be of enormous economic and environmental benefit. © British Veterinary Association (unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Population, reproduction and foraging of pigeon guillemots at Naked Island, Alaska, before and after the Exxon Valdez oil spill. Bird study number 9. Exxon Valdez oil spill state/federal natural resource damage assessment final report

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Oakley, K.L.; Kuletz, K.J.

1994-01-01

Following the 1989 Exxon Valdez oil spill in Prince William Sound (PWS), Alaska, we studied pigeon guillemots (Cepphus columba) breeding just 30 km from the grounding site. The post-spill population was 43% less than the pre-spill population, but we could not attribute the entire decline to the spill because a decline in the PWS guillemot population may have predated the spill. However, relative declines in the population were greater along oiled shorelines, suggesting that the spill was responsible for some of the decline. The most likely explanation for the few effects observed is that oil was present on the surfacemore » waters of the study area for a relatively short period before the guillemots returned to begin their annual reproductive activities.« less

Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding

PubMed Central

Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N.; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R.; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A.; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E.; Cranfield, Michael R.; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

2015-01-01

Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. PMID:25859046

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands.

PubMed

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A; van der Linden, Giel T J; Schaminée, Joop H J; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-12-09

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species.

Museum specimens reveal loss of pollen host plants as key factor driving wild bee decline in The Netherlands

PubMed Central

Scheper, Jeroen; Reemer, Menno; van Kats, Ruud; Ozinga, Wim A.; van der Linden, Giel T. J.; Schaminée, Joop H. J.; Siepel, Henk; Kleijn, David

2014-01-01

Evidence for declining populations of both wild and managed bees has raised concern about a potential global pollination crisis. Strategies to mitigate bee loss generally aim to enhance floral resources. However, we do not really know whether loss of preferred floral resources is the key driver of bee decline because accurate assessment of host plant preferences is difficult, particularly for species that have become rare. Here we examine whether population trends of wild bees in The Netherlands can be explained by trends in host plants, and how this relates to other factors such as climate change. We determined host plant preference of bee species using pollen loads on specimens in entomological collections that were collected before the onset of their decline, and used atlas data to quantify population trends of bee species and their host plants. We show that decline of preferred host plant species was one of two main factors associated with bee decline. Bee body size, the other main factor, was negatively related to population trend, which, because larger bee species have larger pollen requirements than smaller species, may also point toward food limitation as a key factor driving wild bee loss. Diet breadth and other potential factors such as length of flight period or climate change sensitivity were not important in explaining twentieth century bee population trends. These results highlight the species-specific nature of wild bee decline and indicate that mitigation strategies will only be effective if they target the specific host plants of declining species. PMID:25422416

Forest survey results for higher grade hardwood sawtimber

Treesearch

Roy C. Beltz

1991-01-01

The 1987 Forest Survey of Mississippi shows a slight increase in forest area and a substantial gain in hardwood inventory. Hardwood gains, appearing in all diameter classes, suggest an increase in quality but hardwood users generally believe quality is declining. By our analysis, volume of top quality hardwood declined while volume in other grades increased. Forest...

The Impact of Changing Funding and Authority Relationships on Scientific Innovations

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Whitley, Richard; Gläser, Jochen; Laudel, Grit

2018-01-01

The past three decades have witnessed a sharp reduction in the rate of growth of public research funding, and sometimes an actual decline in its level. In many countries, this decline has been accompanied by substantial changes in the ways that such funding has been allocated and monitored. In addition, the institutions governing how research is…

Doing More with Less: Marketing Educational Programs in Times of Declining Tuition Assistance.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Breckon, Donald J.

Degree completion programs on military installations are large, effective programs, with substantial support. Education will never be more convenient or less expensive for students. Education is a product military personnel need and want. In a time of declining tuition assistance, it is up to colleges that deal with the military to market their…

Long-term decline of a winter-resident bird community in Puerto Rico

Treesearch

J. Faaborg; W. J. Arendt; J. D. Toms; K. M. Dugger; W. A. Cox; M. Canals Mora

2013-01-01

Despite concern expressed two decades ago, there has been little recent discussion about continuing declines of migrant bird populations. Monitoring efforts have been focused almost exclusively on the breeding grounds. We describe the long-term decline of a winter-resident bird population in Guanica Commonwealth Forest, Puerto Rico, one of the last remaining tracts of...

Teenage childbearing in the United States, 1960-1997.

PubMed

Ventura, S J; Freedman, M A

2000-07-01

Teenage childbearing in the United States has declined significantly in the 1990s. Still the U.S. teen birth rate is higher than in other developed countries; in 1997 it was 52.3 births per 1000 women aged 15 to 19. A steep rise in teen birth rates in the late 1980s generated a great deal of public concern and a variety of initiatives targeted to reducing teen births. Data from the National Center for Health Statistics' National Vital Statistics System are used to review and describe trends and variations in births and birth rates for teenagers for the period 1960-1997. Teen birth rates were much higher in the early 1960s than at present; in fact, rates for 18- to 19-year-olds were double what they are currently. In the 1990s, birth rates for teenagers dropped for younger and older teenagers, with greater declines recorded for younger teens. While rates have fallen in all population groups, the greatest declines have been experienced by black teenagers, whose rates have dropped 24% on average. %Trends in teen births and birth rates since 1960 have been affected by a variety of factors. These include wide swings in the number of female teenagers, substantial declines in marriage among older teens, falling birth rates for married teens concurrent with rapidly rising birth rates for unmarried teens, and sharp increases in sexual activity among teens that have abated only recently, according to the National Center for Health Statistics' National Survey of Family Growth. This review article also tracks changes in contraceptive practice and abortion rates.

Wartime Paris, cirrhosis mortality, and the ceteris paribus assumption.

PubMed

Fillmore, Kaye Middleton; Roizen, Ron; Farrell, Michael; Kerr, William; Lemmens, Paul

2002-07-01

This article critiques the ceteris paribus assumption, which tacitly sustains the epidemiologic literature's inference that the sharp decline in cirrhosis mortality observed in Paris during the Second World War derived from a sharp constriction in wine consumption. Paris's wartime circumstances deviate substantially from the "all else being equal" assumption, and at least three other hypotheses for the cirrhosis decline may be contemplated. Historical and statistical review. Wartime Paris underwent tumultuous changes. Wine consumption did decline, but there were, as well, a myriad of other changes in diet and life experience, many involving new or heightened hardships, nutritional, experiential, institutional, health and mortality risks. Three competing hypotheses are presented: (1) A fraction of the candidates for cirrhosis mortality may have fallen to more sudden forms of death; (2) alcoholics, heavy drinkers and Paris's clochard subpopulation may have been differentially likely to become removed from the city's wartime population, whether by self-initiated departure, arrest and deportation, or death from other causes, even murder; and (3) there was mismeasurement in the cirrhosis mortality decline. The alcohol-cirrhosis connection provided the template for the alcohol research effort (now more than 20 years old) aimed at re-establishing scientific recognition of alcohol's direct alcohol-problems-generating associations and causal responsibilities. In a time given to reports of weaker associations of the alcohol-cirrhosis connection, the place and importance of the Paris curve in the wider literature, as regards that connection, remains. For this reason, the Paris findings should be subjected to as much research scrutiny as they undoubtedly deserve.

Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations.

PubMed

Rode, Karyn D; Regehr, Eric V; Douglas, David C; Durner, George; Derocher, Andrew E; Thiemann, Gregory W; Budge, Suzanne M

2014-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have experienced substantial changes in the seasonal availability of sea ice habitat in parts of their range, including the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering Seas. In this study, we compared the body size, condition, and recruitment of polar bears captured in the Chukchi and Bering Seas (CS) between two periods (1986-1994 and 2008-2011) when declines in sea ice habitat occurred. In addition, we compared metrics for the CS population 2008-2011 with those of the adjacent southern Beaufort Sea (SB) population where loss in sea ice habitat has been associated with declines in body condition, size, recruitment, and survival. We evaluated how variation in body condition and recruitment were related to feeding ecology. Comparing habitat conditions between populations, there were twice as many reduced ice days over continental shelf waters per year during 2008-2011 in the SB than in the CS. CS polar bears were larger and in better condition, and appeared to have higher reproduction than SB bears. Although SB and CS bears had similar diets, twice as many bears were fasting in spring in the SB than in the CS. Between 1986-1994 and 2008-2011, body size, condition, and recruitment indices in the CS were not reduced despite a 44-day increase in the number of reduced ice days. Bears in the CS exhibited large body size, good body condition, and high indices of recruitment compared to most other populations measured to date. Higher biological productivity and prey availability in the CS relative to the SB, and a shorter recent history of reduced sea ice habitat, may explain the maintenance of condition and recruitment of CS bears. Geographic differences in the response of polar bears to climate change are relevant to range-wide forecasts for this and other ice-dependent species. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Variation in the response of an Arctic top predator experiencing habitat loss: Feeding and reproductive ecology of two polar bear populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rode, Karyn D.; Regehr, Eric V.; Douglas, David C.; Durner, George M.; Derocher, Andrew E.; Thiemann, Gregory W.; Budge, Suzanne M.

2014-01-01

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have experienced substantial changes in the seasonal availability of sea ice habitat in parts of their range, including the Beaufort, Chukchi, and Bering Seas. In this study, we compared the body size, condition, and recruitment of polar bears captured in the Chukchi and Bering Seas (CS) between two periods (1986–1994 and 2008–2011) when declines in sea ice habitat occurred. In addition, we compared metrics for the CS population 2008–2011 with those of the adjacent southern Beaufort Sea (SB) population where loss in sea ice habitat has been associated with declines in body condition, size, recruitment, and survival. We evaluated how variation in body condition and recruitment were related to feeding ecology. Comparing habitat conditions between populations, there were twice as many reduced ice days over continental shelf waters per year during 2008–2011 in the SB than in the CS. CS polar bears were larger and in better condition, and appeared to have higher reproduction than SB bears. Although SB and CS bears had similar diets, twice as many bears were fasting in spring in the SB than in the CS. Between 1986–1994 and 2008–2011, body size, condition, and recruitment indices in the CS were not reduced despite a 44-day increase in the number of reduced ice days. Bears in the CS exhibited large body size, good body condition, and high indices of recruitment compared to most other populations measured to date. Higher biological productivity and prey availability in the CS relative to the SB, and a shorter recent history of reduced sea ice habitat, may explain the maintenance of condition and recruitment of CS bears. Geographic differences in the response of polar bears to climate change are relevant to range-wide forecasts for this and other ice-dependent species.

Use of hormone replacement therapy in the Hong Kong public health sector after the Women's Health Initiative trial.

PubMed

Leung, K Y; Ling, Matina; Tang, G W K

2005-01-01

To determine the impact of Women Health Initiative (WHI) trial on the use of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) in the Hong Kong public health sector. The central prescription database of the Hospital Authority was used to describe the half-yearly trend in the use of HRT between July 2000 and December 2003. The data of hysterectomy was retrieved from another clinical database. Before the publication of the WHI trial in July 2002, conjugated equine estrogens (CEE) and its related products dominated HRT prescribing. Relative to the first half of 2002, there was an immediate and substantial decline by 43.5% in the prescriptions of combined CEE/progestogen products and a modest decline by 22.4% in the prescriptions of CEE-alone therapy in the second half of 2002. In the first half of 2003, a decline in the prescriptions of all HRT preparations except raloxifene was observed. However, in the second half of 2003, there were no more declines in overall HRT users. Relative to the first half of 2002, the decline in the overall HRT users in the first half of 2003 was more than 46% in women aged 50-69. The decline was greater in women with a history of hysterectomy (60.3%) than women without (38.6%), but was similar between gynaecology specialty (41.7%) and non-gynaecology specialty (43.9%). Similar to the U.S., an immediate and substantial decline in the use of CEE and its related products was observed in Hong Kong after the publication of the WHI trial.

Biodiversity losses: The downward spiral

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tomback, Diana F.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Tomback, Diana F.; Arno, Stephen F.; Keane, Robert E.

2001-01-01

The dramatic decline of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) populations in the northwestern United States and southwestern Canada from the combined effects of fire exclusion, mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae), and white pine blister rust (Cronartium ribicola), and the projected decline of whitebark pine populations rangewide (Chapters 10 and 11) do not simply add up to local extirpations of a single tree species. Instead, the loss of whitebark pine has broad ecosystem-level consequences, eroding local plant and animal biodiversity, changing the time frame of succession, and altering the distribution of subalpine vegetation (Chapter 1). One potential casualty of this decline may be the midcontinental populations of the grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis), which use whitebark pine seeds as a major food source (Chapter 7). Furthermore, whitebark pine is linked to other white pine ecosystems in the West through its seed-disperser, Clark's nutcracker (Nucifraga columbiana) (Chapter 5). Major declines in nutcracker populations ultimately seal the fate of several white pine ecosystems, and raise the question of whether restoration is possible once a certain threshold of decline is reached.

THE GREAT RECESSION AND RECENT EMPLOYMENT TRENDS AMONG SECONDARY STUDENTS IN THE UNITED STATES*

PubMed Central

Staff, Jeremy; Johnson, Monica Kirkpatrick; Patrick, Megan E.; Schulenberg, John E.

2014-01-01

The Great Recession had substantial effects on the labor market in the United States, as elsewhere. To what extent did secondary students’ employment decline during this time? Which students are leaving the labor market? Are reductions in employment concentrated in particular jobs? To answer these questions, we use data from the Monitoring the Future study, an ongoing study of secondary students in the United States. More specifically, we examine recent trends in teenage employment using 6 cohorts each of 8th, 10th, and 12th graders (from 2006 to 2011, spanning before, during and after the Great Recession). Results show a gradual decline in school year employment since 2006, including the years after the official end of the recession. Employment during the school year is especially low among 8th and 10th graders, Hispanic and non-Hispanic Black youth, and students from disadvantaged backgrounds (based upon parental education), though the recent drop in work has varied little by population subgroups. The decline in employment is, however, concentrated among the oldest students, and working intensely (over 20 hours per week) has dropped more than working moderate hours. Students are more likely to babysit and do lawn work and less likely to hold jobs in office, clerical, and sales positions than in years past. These patterns and recent shifts in job type suggest some degree of job replacement by older workers. PMID:25642296

Avian population consequences of climate change are most severe for long-distance migrants in seasonal habitats.

PubMed

Both, Christiaan; Van Turnhout, Chris A M; Bijlsma, Rob G; Siepel, Henk; Van Strien, Arco J; Foppen, Ruud P B

2010-04-22

One consequence of climate change is an increasing mismatch between timing of food requirements and food availability. Such a mismatch is primarily expected in avian long-distance migrants because of their complex annual cycle, and in habitats with a seasonal food peak. Here we show that insectivorous long-distance migrant species in The Netherlands declined strongly (1984-2004) in forests, a habitat characterized by a short spring food peak, but that they did not decline in less seasonal marshes. Also, within generalist long-distance migrant species, populations declined more strongly in forests than in marshes. Forest-inhabiting migrant species arriving latest in spring declined most sharply, probably because their mismatch with the peak in food supply is greatest. Residents and short-distance migrants had non-declining populations in both habitats, suggesting that habitat quality did not deteriorate. Habitat-related differences in trends were most probably caused by climate change because at a European scale, long-distance migrants in forests declined more severely in western Europe, where springs have become considerably warmer, when compared with northern Europe, where temperatures during spring arrival and breeding have increased less. Our results suggest that trophic mismatches may have become a major cause for population declines in long-distance migrants in highly seasonal habitats.

[Regional differences in the development of hospitalizations : An effect of different demographic trends?

PubMed

Nowossadeck, Enno; Prütz, Franziska

2018-03-01

Population aging and population decline in many regions of the Federal Republic of Germany are key elements of demographic change. In the regions concerned there is a rising number of older people and, simultaneously, a declining population. So far, the consequences of regional shrinkage and growth for inpatient care don't seem to have been analysed very well. This paper analyses the influence of population aging and declining/increasing population (demographic factors) as well as other, non-demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations in Germany and the Federal States since 2000.One result of the analysis is that there are major differences between the Federal States. The analysis shows, for example, an increase of hospitalizations in Berlin while in Saxony-Anhalt the number of hospitalizations declines. The increase in Berlin was the result of population aging and, to a lower extent, an increase in population. In Saxony-Anhalt the declining population resulted in a decreasing number of hospitalizations. Population aging and non-demographic factors were not able to compensate this trend.Overall, the effect of demographic factors on the number of hospitalizations remains constant over time. Short-term changes of hospitalizations are due to non-demographic factors, such as epidemiological trends, (for example trends of incidence or prevalence), or structural changes of health care service (for example patients shifting between different sectors of health care or the introduction of new reimbursement systems).

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

PubMed

Moura, Andre E; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P J Nico; Worley, Kim C; Gibbs, Richard A; Dahlheim, Marilyn E; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-05-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

Insecticide resistance status in the whitefly, Bemisia tabaci genetic groups Asia-I, Asia-II-1 and Asia-II-7 on the Indian subcontinent

PubMed Central

Naveen, N. C.; Chaubey, Rahul; Kumar, Dinesh; Rebijith, K. B.; Rajagopal, Raman; Subrahmanyam, B.; Subramanian, S.

2017-01-01

The present study is a summary of the current level of the insecticide resistance to selected organophosphates, pyrethroids, and neonicotinoids in seven Indian field populations of Bemisia tabaci genetic groups Asia-I, Asia-II-1, and Asia-II-7. Susceptibility of these populations was varied with Asia-II-7 being the most susceptible, while Asia-I and Asia-II-1 populations were showing significant resistance to these insecticides. The variability of the LC50 values was 7x for imidacloprid and thiamethoxam, 5x for monocrotophos and 3x for cypermethrin among the Asia-I, while, they were 7x for cypermethrin, 6x for deltamethrin and 5x for imidacloprid within the Asia-II-1 populations. When compared with the most susceptible, PUSA population (Asia-II-7), a substantial increase in resistant ratios was observed in both the populations of Asia-I and Asia-II-1. Comparative analysis during 2010–13 revealed a decline in susceptibility in Asia-I and Asia-II-1 populations of B. tabaci to the tested organophosphate, pyrethroid, and neonicotinoid insecticides. Evidence of potential control failure was detected using probit analysis estimates for cypermethrin, deltamethrin, monocrotophos and imidacloprid. Our results update resistance status of B. tabaci in India. The implications of insecticide resistance management of B. tabaci on Indian subcontinent are discussed. PMID:28098188

Population ecology and harvest of the American black duck: a review

USGS Publications Warehouse

Rusch, D.H.; Ankney, C.D.; Boyd, H.; Longcore, J.R.; Montalbano, F.; Ringelman, J.K.; Stotts, V.D.

1989-01-01

1. The purpose of our review was to examine available data on population trends and current status of black ducks and trends in natality and survival and to relate these, where possible, to changes in habitat, predation, disease, contaminants, harvest, and hybridization with mallards. 2. The number of black ducks tallied in the winter survey has declined steadily over the past 30 years at an average rate of about 3%/ year. Reliability and precision of the survey are uncertain; it may not provide an adequate index to the continental population of black ducks. Breeding surveys are incomplete and sporadic, but black ducks have decreased in Ontario and increased in the Maritime Provinces and Quebec. 3. Recent declines in numbers of black ducks tallied in the winter survey are not unusual in magnitude or much different from those that have occurred among several other species of waterfowl. 4. At present, black ducks are not especially scarce relative to numbers of several other ducks in eastern North America. 5. There is no solid evidence of major decreases in quality or quantity of breeding habitat for black ducks in recent years; in some areas, habitat has improved. 6. Natural mortality of black ducks has not been well studied, but does not seem unusually high compared to other dabbling ducks. 7. Harvest rates of black ducks are similar to those of sympatric mallards as determined by banding analyses. 8. There is no strong evidence for direct effects of contaminants on black ducks, but some indirect effects through invertebrate food resources have been detected. 9. Age ratios in black ducks show no trend in the past 18 years. 10. The quality and quantity of wintering habitat for black ducks have decreased substantially in some areas. 11. Disease and other natural mortality that affect black ducks do .not occur in unusually high frequency. 12. A decline in harvest of black ducks has occurred; most of the decline has been in the United States, especially since restrictive regulations were implemented in 1983. 13. Recovery rates of black ducks have declined recently in the U.S., but not in Canada. 14. Survival rates of black ducks are 56-63% for adults and 43% for young. These rates of survival are similar to comparable estimates in sympatric mallards. 15. Long hunting seasons may depress survival in some sex-age classes of black ducks, buteffects of small reductions in survival on population trends are unknown. 16. Available evidence does not support the contention that hunting is either the sole or most important cause of the decline in the winter tally of black duck numbers. 17. Surveys and banding of black ducks should be thoroughly reviewed and maintained or improved as warranted. Obtaining or maintaining a reasonable index to numbers of black ducks is the top priority among survey needs. 18. Experimental manipulation of hunting seasons should be considered to elucidate relationships among regulations, harvest, survival, and population trends. 19. Black ducks and mallards are genetically similar; there is as much genetic differentiation within the 2 species as there is between them. 20. Black duck x mallard hybrids are fertile. Hybrids are difficult to detect by plumage and thus published frequencies (0-13%) of hybrids may be low. 21. Hybridization could be a result of concomitant mallard increases and black duck decreases, or changes in black duck-to-mallard ratios could be from hybridization and genetic swamping of black ducks.

A model for sex ratio decline in India.

PubMed

Thukral, A K

1996-01-01

"The sex ratio in India has declined from 972 females per 1,000 males in 1901 to 929 females per 1,000 males in 1991. A model [is] proposed for the quantitative analysis of the problem.... The study reveals that there has been a sex discriminated population growth in India in the twentieth century, although the rate of decline of the female has decreased. If the current trend of population growth continues, there will be a further decline in the [sex ratio]." excerpt

Fish community dynamics following dam removal in a fragmented agricultural stream

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kornis, Matthew; Weidel, Brian C.; Powers, Stephens; Diebel, Matthew W.; Cline, Timpthy; Fox, Justin; Kitchell, James F.

2014-01-01

Habitat fragmentation impedes dispersal of aquatic fauna, and barrier removal is increasingly used to increase stream network connectivity and facilitate fish dispersal. Improved understanding of fish community response to barrier removal is needed, especially in fragmented agricultural streams where numerous antiquated dams are likely destined for removal. We examined post-removal responses in two distinct fish communities formerly separated by a small aging mill dam. The dam was removed midway through the 6 year study, enabling passage for downstream fishes affiliated with a connected reservoir into previously inaccessible habitat, thus creating the potential for taxonomic homogenization between upstream and downstream communities. Both communities changed substantially post-removal. Two previously excluded species (white sucker, yellow perch) established substantial populations upstream of the former dam, contributing to a doubling of total fish biomass. Meanwhile, numerical density of pre-existing upstream fishes declined. Downstream, largemouth bass density was inversely correlated with prey fish density throughout the study, while post-removal declines in bluegill density coincided with cooler water temperature and increased suspended and benthic fine sediment. Upstream and downstream fish communities became more similar post-removal, represented by a shift in Bray-Curtis index from 14 to 41 % similarity. Our findings emphasize that barrier removal in highly fragmented stream networks can facilitate the unintended and possibly undesirable spread of species into headwater streams, including dispersal of species from remaining reservoirs. We suggest that knowledge of dispersal patterns for key piscivore and competitor species in both the target system and neighboring systems may help predict community outcomes following barrier removal.

Gender-based screening for chlamydial infection and divergent infection trends in men and women.

PubMed

Rogers, Susan M; Turner, Charles F; Miller, William C; Erbelding, Emily; Eggleston, Elizabeth; Tan, Sylvia; Roman, Anthony; Hobbs, Marcia; Chromy, James; Muvva, Ravikiran; Ganapathi, Laxminarayana

2014-01-01

To assess the potential impact of chlamydial screening policy that recommends routine screening of women but not men. Population surveys of probability samples of Baltimore adults aged 18 to 35 years in 1997-1998 and 2006-2009 collected biospecimens to estimate trends in undiagnosed chlamydial infection. Survey estimates are compared to surveillance data on diagnosed chlamydial infections reported to the Health Department. Prevalence of undiagnosed chlamydial infection among men increased from 1.6% to 4.0%, but it declined from 4.3% to 3.1% among women (p = 0.028 for test of interaction). The annual (average) number of diagnosed infections was substantially higher among women than men in both time periods and increased among both men and women. Undiagnosed infection prevalence was substantially higher among black than non-black adults (4.0% vs 1.2%, p = 0.042 in 1997-98 and 5.5% vs 0.7%, p<0.001 in 2006-09). Divergent trends in undiagnosed chlamydial infection by gender parallel divergent screening recommendations that encourage chlamydial testing for women but not for men.

Progress towards malaria elimination in Zimbabwe with special reference to the period 2003-2015.

PubMed

Sande, Shadreck; Zimba, Moses; Mberikunashe, Joseph; Tangwena, Andrew; Chimusoro, Anderson

2017-07-24

An intensive effort to control malaria in Zimbabwe has produced dramatic reductions in the burden of the disease over the past 13 years. The successes have prompted the Zimbabwe's National Malaria Control Programme to commit to elimination of malaria. It is critical to analyse the changes in the morbidity trends based on surveillance data, and scrutinize reorientation to strategies for elimination. This is a retrospective study of available Ministry of Health surveillance data and programme reports, mostly from 2003 to 2015. Malaria epidemiological data were drawn from the National Health Information System database. Data on available resources, malaria control strategies, morbidity and mortality trends were analysed, and opportunities for Zimbabwe malaria elimination agenda was perused. With strong government commitment and partner support, the financial gap for malaria programming shrank by 91.4% from about US$13 million in 2012 to US$1 million in 2015. Vector control comprises indoor residual house spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets, and spray coverage increased from 28% in 2003 to 95% in 2015. Population protected by IRS increased also from 20 to 96% for the same period. In 2009, diagnostics improved from clinical to parasitological confirmation either by rapid diagnostic tests or microscopy. Artemisinin-based combination therapy was used to treat malaria following chloroquine resistance in 2000, and sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in 2004. In 2003, there were 155 malaria cases per 1000 populations reported from all health facilities throughout the country. The following decade witnessed a substantial decline in cases to only 22 per 1000 populations in 2012. A resurgence was reported in 2013 (29/1000) and 2014 (39/1000), thereafter morbidity declined to 29 cases per 1000 populations, only to the same level as in 2013. Overall, morbidity declined by 81% from 2003 to 2015. Inpatient malaria deaths per 100,000 populations doubled in 4 years, from 2/100,000 to 4/100,000 populations in 2012-2015 respectively. Twenty of the 47 moderate to high burdened districts were upgraded from control to malaria pre-elimination between 2012 and 2015. A significant progress to reduce malaria transmission in Zimbabwe has been made. While a great potential and opportunities to eliminate malaria in the country exist, elimination is not a business as usual approach. Instead, it needs an improved, systematic and new programmatic strategy supported strongly by political will, sustained funding, good leadership, community engagement, and a strong monitoring and evaluation system all year round until the cessation of local transmission.

Are more North American species decreasing than increasing?

USGS Publications Warehouse

Droege, S.; Sauer, J.R.; Hagemeijer, E.J.M.; Verstrael, T.J.

1994-01-01

Population trends for North American species are calculated for 1966-'91 and 1982-'91 using Nonh American Breeding Bird Survey data. Species are grouped into 3 systems of guild classifications representing migration status, breeding habitat and nesting substrate. Trends for these groups are summarized by time period, bioregion and physiographic region. At the continental level, declines approximately equalled increases. There are slightly more declines during the last 10 years. Prairie populations declined more than expected, while western populations increased. Scrub and grassland nesting species declined significantly in several bioregions while woodland species increased. Most guilds did not depart significantly from a ratio of 50:50 increases to decreases or have opposing trends in different bioregions. Guild group changes are usually clustered geographically. Guild and other analyses that search for patterns among population trend estimates offer an excellent means of identifying critical conservation issues.

Mountain gorilla genomes reveal the impact of long-term population decline and inbreeding.

PubMed

Xue, Yali; Prado-Martinez, Javier; Sudmant, Peter H; Narasimhan, Vagheesh; Ayub, Qasim; Szpak, Michal; Frandsen, Peter; Chen, Yuan; Yngvadottir, Bryndis; Cooper, David N; de Manuel, Marc; Hernandez-Rodriguez, Jessica; Lobon, Irene; Siegismund, Hans R; Pagani, Luca; Quail, Michael A; Hvilsom, Christina; Mudakikwa, Antoine; Eichler, Evan E; Cranfield, Michael R; Marques-Bonet, Tomas; Tyler-Smith, Chris; Scally, Aylwyn

2015-04-10

Mountain gorillas are an endangered great ape subspecies and a prominent focus for conservation, yet we know little about their genomic diversity and evolutionary past. We sequenced whole genomes from multiple wild individuals and compared the genomes of all four Gorilla subspecies. We found that the two eastern subspecies have experienced a prolonged population decline over the past 100,000 years, resulting in very low genetic diversity and an increased overall burden of deleterious variation. A further recent decline in the mountain gorilla population has led to extensive inbreeding, such that individuals are typically homozygous at 34% of their sequence, leading to the purging of severely deleterious recessive mutations from the population. We discuss the causes of their decline and the consequences for their future survival. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Evidence for underuse of effective medical services around the world.

PubMed

Glasziou, Paul; Straus, Sharon; Brownlee, Shannon; Trevena, Lyndal; Dans, Leonila; Guyatt, Gordon; Elshaug, Adam G; Janett, Robert; Saini, Vikas

2017-07-08

Underuse-the failure to use effective and affordable medical interventions-is common and responsible for substantial suffering, disability, and loss of life worldwide. Underuse occurs at every point along the treatment continuum, from populations lacking access to health care to inadequate supply of medical resources and labour, slow or partial uptake of innovations, and patients not accessing or declining them. The extent of underuse for different interventions varies by country, and is documented in countries of high, middle, and low-income, and across different types of health-care systems, payment models, and health services. Most research into underuse has focused on measuring solutions to the problem, with considerably less attention paid to its global prevalence or its consequences for patients and populations. Although focused effort and resources can overcome specific underuse problems, comparatively little is spent on work to better understand and overcome the barriers to improved uptake of effective interventions, and methods to make them affordable. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Abortion in Vietnam: measurements, puzzles, and concerns.

PubMed

Goodkind, D

1994-01-01

This report summarizes current knowledge about abortion in Vietnam, drawing upon government statistics, survey data, and fieldwork undertaken by the author in Vietnam throughout 1993 and part of 1994. The official total abortion rate in Vietnam in 1992 was about 2.5 per woman, the highest in Asia and worrisome for a country with a still-high total fertility rate of 3.7 children per woman. Vietnamese provinces exhibited substantial variation in both the rate of abortion and the type of procedures performed. Among the hypotheses explored to explain Vietnam's high rate of abortion are the borrowing of family planning strategies from other poor socialist states where abortion is common; current antinatal population policies that interact with a lack of contraceptive alternatives; and a rise in pregnancies among young and unmarried women in the wake of recent free-market reforms. Because family-size preferences are still declining, abortion rates may continue to increase unless the incidence of unwanted pregnancy can be reduced, a goal that Vietnamese population specialists are seeking to achieve.

Humans rather than climate the primary cause of Pleistocene megafaunal extinction in Australia

PubMed Central

van der Kaars, Sander; Miller, Gifford H.; Turney, Chris S. M.; Cook, Ellyn J.; Nürnberg, Dirk; Schönfeld, Joachim; Kershaw, A. Peter; Lehman, Scott J.

2017-01-01

Environmental histories that span the last full glacial cycle and are representative of regional change in Australia are scarce, hampering assessment of environmental change preceding and concurrent with human dispersal on the continent ca. 47,000 years ago. Here we present a continuous 150,000-year record offshore south-western Australia and identify the timing of two critical late Pleistocene events: wide-scale ecosystem change and regional megafaunal population collapse. We establish that substantial changes in vegetation and fire regime occurred ∼70,000 years ago under a climate much drier than today. We record high levels of the dung fungus Sporormiella, a proxy for herbivore biomass, from 150,000 to 45,000 years ago, then a marked decline indicating megafaunal population collapse, from 45,000 to 43,100 years ago, placing the extinctions within 4,000 years of human dispersal across Australia. These findings rule out climate change, and implicate humans, as the primary extinction cause. PMID:28106043

Humans rather than climate the primary cause of Pleistocene megafaunal extinction in Australia.

PubMed

van der Kaars, Sander; Miller, Gifford H; Turney, Chris S M; Cook, Ellyn J; Nürnberg, Dirk; Schönfeld, Joachim; Kershaw, A Peter; Lehman, Scott J

2017-01-20

Environmental histories that span the last full glacial cycle and are representative of regional change in Australia are scarce, hampering assessment of environmental change preceding and concurrent with human dispersal on the continent ca. 47,000 years ago. Here we present a continuous 150,000-year record offshore south-western Australia and identify the timing of two critical late Pleistocene events: wide-scale ecosystem change and regional megafaunal population collapse. We establish that substantial changes in vegetation and fire regime occurred ∼70,000 years ago under a climate much drier than today. We record high levels of the dung fungus Sporormiella, a proxy for herbivore biomass, from 150,000 to 45,000 years ago, then a marked decline indicating megafaunal population collapse, from 45,000 to 43,100 years ago, placing the extinctions within 4,000 years of human dispersal across Australia. These findings rule out climate change, and implicate humans, as the primary extinction cause.

The Distribution and Abundance of Obligate Grassland Birds Breeding in New England and New York

Treesearch

W. Gregory Shriver; Andrea L. Jones; Peter D. Vickery; Andrew Weik; Jeffrey Wells

2005-01-01

It is clear that grassland bird populations have declined significantly during the last 30 years. Declines are widespread in North America, making grassland birds a continental conservation priority. In New England and New York steep population declines for many species warranted listing in many states. Habitat loss through farm abandonment and the subsequent...

Climate impacts on bird and plant communities from altered animal-plant interactions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Martin, Thomas E.; Maron, John L.

2012-01-01

The contribution of climate change to declining populations of organisms remains a question of outstanding concern. Much attention to declining populations has focused on how changing climate drives phenological mismatches between animals and their food. Effects of climate on plant communities may provide an alternative, but particularly powerful, influence on animal populations because plants provide their habitats. Here, we show that abundances of deciduous trees and associated songbirds have declined with decreasing snowfall over 22 years of study in montane Arizona, USA. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that declining snowfall indirectly influences plants and associated birds by allowing greater over-winter herbivory by elk (Cervus canadensis). We excluded elk from one of two paired snowmelt drainages (10 ha per drainage), and replicated this paired experiment across three distant canyons. Over six years, we reversed multi-decade declines in plant and bird populations by experimentally inhibiting heavy winter herbivory associated with declining snowfall. Moreover, predation rates on songbird nests decreased in exclosures, despite higher abundances of nest predators, demonstrating the over-riding importance of habitat quality to avian recruitment. Thus, our results suggest that climate impacts on plant–animal interactions can have forceful ramifying effects on plants, birds, and ecological interactions.

Climate impacts on bird and plant communities from altered animal-plant interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Martin, Thomas E.; Maron, John L.

2012-03-01

The contribution of climate change to declining populations of organisms remains a question of outstanding concern. Much attention to declining populations has focused on how changing climate drives phenological mismatches between animals and their food. Effects of climate on plant communities may provide an alternative, but particularly powerful, influence on animal populations because plants provide their habitats. Here, we show that abundances of deciduous trees and associated songbirds have declined with decreasing snowfall over 22 years of study in montane Arizona, USA. We experimentally tested the hypothesis that declining snowfall indirectly influences plants and associated birds by allowing greater over-winter herbivory by elk (Cervus canadensis). We excluded elk from one of two paired snowmelt drainages (10 ha per drainage), and replicated this paired experiment across three distant canyons. Over six years, we reversed multi-decade declines in plant and bird populations by experimentally inhibiting heavy winter herbivory associated with declining snowfall. Moreover, predation rates on songbird nests decreased in exclosures, despite higher abundances of nest predators, demonstrating the over-riding importance of habitat quality to avian recruitment. Thus, our results suggest that climate impacts on plant-animal interactions can have forceful ramifying effects on plants, birds, and ecological interactions.

Temporal correlations in population trends: Conservation implications from time-series analysis of diverse animal taxa

Treesearch

David Keith; H. Resit Akcakaya; Stuart H.M. Butchart; Ben Collen; Nicholas K. Dulvy; Elizabeth E. Holmes; Jeffrey A. Hutchings; Doug Keinath; Michael K. Schwartz; Andrew O. Shelton; Robin S. Waples

2015-01-01

Population trends play a large role in species risk assessments and conservation planning, and species are often considered threatened if their recent rate of decline meets certain thresholds, regardless how large the population is. But how reliable an indicator of extinction risk is a single estimate of population trend? Given the integral role this decline-...

Pup Mortality in a Rapidly Declining Harbour Seal (Phoca vitulina) Population

PubMed Central

Hanson, Nora; Thompson, Dave; Duck, Callan; Moss, Simon; Lonergan, Mike

2013-01-01

The harbour seal population in Orkney, off the north coast of Scotland, has reduced by 65% between 2001 and 2010. The cause(s) of this decline are unknown but must affect the demographic parameters of the population. Here, satellite telemetry data were used to test the hypothesis that increased pup mortality could be a primary driver of the decline in Orkney. Pup mortality and tag failure parameters were estimated from the duration of operation of satellite tags deployed on harbour seal pups from the Orkney population (n = 24) and from another population on the west coast of Scotland (n = 24) where abundance was stable. Survival probabilities from both populations were best represented by a common gamma distribution and were not different from one another, suggesting that increased pup mortality is unlikely to be the primary agent in the Orkney population decline. The estimated probability of surviving to 6 months was 0.390 (95% CI 0.297 – 0.648) and tag failure was represented by a Gaussian distribution, with estimated mean 270 (95% CI = 198 – 288) and s.d. 21 (95% CI = 1 – 66) days. These results suggest that adult survival is the most likely proximate cause of the decline. They also demonstrate a novel technique for attaining age-specific mortality rates from telemetry data. PMID:24312239

Population structure and historical demography of South American sea lions provide insights into the catastrophic decline of a marine mammal population.

PubMed

Hoffman, J I; Kowalski, G J; Klimova, A; Eberhart-Phillips, L J; Staniland, I J; Baylis, A M M

2016-07-01

Understanding the causes of population decline is crucial for conservation management. We therefore used genetic analysis both to provide baseline data on population structure and to evaluate hypotheses for the catastrophic decline of the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) at the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) in the South Atlantic. We genotyped 259 animals from 23 colonies across the Falklands at 281 bp of the mitochondrial hypervariable region and 22 microsatellites. A weak signature of population structure was detected, genetic diversity was moderately high in comparison with other pinniped species, and no evidence was found for the decline being associated with a strong demographic bottleneck. By combining our mitochondrial data with published sequences from Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru, we also uncovered strong maternally directed population structure across the geographical range of the species. In particular, very few shared haplotypes were found between the Falklands and South America, and this was reflected in correspondingly low migration rate estimates. These findings do not support the prominent hypothesis that the decline was caused by migration to Argentina, where large-scale commercial harvesting operations claimed over half a million animals. Thus, our study not only provides baseline data for conservation management but also reveals the potential for genetic studies to shed light upon long-standing questions pertaining to the history and fate of natural populations.

Population structure and historical demography of South American sea lions provide insights into the catastrophic decline of a marine mammal population

PubMed Central

Hoffman, J. I.; Kowalski, G. J.; Klimova, A.; Staniland, I. J.; Baylis, A. M. M.

2016-01-01

Understanding the causes of population decline is crucial for conservation management. We therefore used genetic analysis both to provide baseline data on population structure and to evaluate hypotheses for the catastrophic decline of the South American sea lion (Otaria flavescens) at the Falkland Islands (Malvinas) in the South Atlantic. We genotyped 259 animals from 23 colonies across the Falklands at 281 bp of the mitochondrial hypervariable region and 22 microsatellites. A weak signature of population structure was detected, genetic diversity was moderately high in comparison with other pinniped species, and no evidence was found for the decline being associated with a strong demographic bottleneck. By combining our mitochondrial data with published sequences from Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru, we also uncovered strong maternally directed population structure across the geographical range of the species. In particular, very few shared haplotypes were found between the Falklands and South America, and this was reflected in correspondingly low migration rate estimates. These findings do not support the prominent hypothesis that the decline was caused by migration to Argentina, where large-scale commercial harvesting operations claimed over half a million animals. Thus, our study not only provides baseline data for conservation management but also reveals the potential for genetic studies to shed light upon long-standing questions pertaining to the history and fate of natural populations. PMID:27493782

Demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions: are they relevant to population health patterns in Africa?

PubMed Central

Kuate Defo, Barthélémy

2014-01-01

Background Studies of trends in population changes and epidemiological profiles in the developing world have overwhelmingly relied upon the concepts of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions, even though their usefulness in describing and understanding population and health trends in developing countries has been repeatedly called into question. The issue is particularly relevant for the study of population health patterns in Africa and sub-Saharan Africa, as the history and experience there differs substantially from that of Western Europe and North America, for which these concepts were originally developed. Objective The aim of this study is two-fold: to review and clarify any distinction between the concepts of demographic transition, epidemiological transition and health transition and to identify summary indicators of population health to test how well these concepts apply in Africa. Results Notwithstanding the characteristically diverse African context, Africa is a continent of uncertainties and emergencies where discontinuities and interruptions of health, disease, and mortality trends reflect the enduring fragility and instability of countries and the vulnerabilities of individuals and populations in the continent. Africa as a whole remains the furthest behind the world's regions in terms of health improvements and longevity, as do its sub-Saharan African regions and societies specifically. This study documents: 1) theoretically and empirically the similarities and differences between the demographic transition, epidemiological transition, and health transition; 2) simple summary indicators that can be used to evaluate their descriptive and predictive features; 3) marked disparities in the onset and pace of variations and divergent trends in health, disease, and mortality patterns as well as fertility and life expectancy trajectories among African countries and regions over the past 60 years; 4) the rapid decline in infant mortality and gains in life expectancy from the 1950s through the 1990s in a context of preponderant communicable diseases in all African countries; 5) the salient role of adult mortality, mostly ascribed to HIV/AIDS and co-morbidities, since the 1990s in reversing trends in mortality decline, its interruption of life expectancy improvements, and its reversal of gender differences in life expectancies disadvantaging women in several countries with the highest prevalence of HIV/AIDS; 6) the huge impact of wars in reversing the trends in under-five mortality decline in sub-Saharan countries in the 1990s and beyond. These assessments of these transition frameworks and these phenomena were not well documented to date for all five regions and 57 countries of Africa. Conclusion Prevailing frameworks of demographic, epidemiological, and health transitions as descriptive and predictive models are incomplete or irrelevant for charting the population and health experiences and prospects of national populations in the African context. PMID:24848648

A projection of lesser prairie chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus) populations range-wide

USGS Publications Warehouse

Cummings, Jonathan W.; Converse, Sarah J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Smith, David R.; Nichols, Clay T.; Allan, Nathan L.; O'Meilia, Chris M.

2017-08-09

We built a population viability analysis (PVA) model to predict future population status of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus, LEPC) in four ecoregions across the species’ range. The model results will be used in the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service's (FWS) Species Status Assessment (SSA) for the LEPC. Our stochastic projection model combined demographic rate estimates from previously published literature with demographic rate estimates that integrate the influence of climate conditions. This LEPC PVA projects declining populations with estimated population growth rates well below 1 in each ecoregion regardless of habitat or climate change. These results are consistent with estimates of LEPC population growth rates derived from other demographic process models. Although the absolute magnitude of the decline is unlikely to be as low as modeling tools indicate, several different lines of evidence suggest LEPC populations are declining.

Nuclear and mitochondrial DNA reveals isolation of imperilled grey nurse shark populations (Carcharias taurus).

PubMed

Ahonen, H; Harcourt, R G; Stow, A J

2009-11-01

Loss of sharks and other upper-trophic marine predators has sparked worldwide concern for the stability of ocean ecosystems. The grey nurse (ragged-tooth or sand tiger) shark (Carcharias taurus) is Vulnerable on a global scale, Critically Endangered in Australia and presumed extinct in parts of its historical range. We used 193 muscle and fin samples collected from six extant populations to assess global mtDNA and microsatellite diversity and the degree of global population genetic structure. Control region mtDNA diversity was low in every population, and two populations (eastern Australia and Japan) contained only a single mtDNA haplotype. Genetic signatures of recent losses of genetic variation were not yet apparent at microsatellite loci, indicating that this low mtDNA variation is not a result of anthropogenic population declines. Population differentiation was substantial between each population pair except Brazil and South Africa, F(ST) values ranged from 0.050 to 0.699 and 0.100 to 1.00 for microsatellite and mitochondrial data respectively. Bayesian analysis clearly partitioned individuals into five of the populations from which they were sampled. Our data imply a low frequency of immigrant exchange among each of these regions and we suggest that each be recognized as a distinct evolutionary significant unit. In contrast to pelagic species such as whale shark and white shark that may cross ocean basins and where cooperative international efforts are necessary for conservation, grey nurse shark, like many coastal species, need to be managed regionally.

Dynamic patterns and ecological impacts of declining ocean pH in a high-resolution multi-year dataset.

PubMed

Wootton, J Timothy; Pfister, Catherine A; Forester, James D

2008-12-02

Increasing global concentrations of atmospheric CO(2) are predicted to decrease ocean pH, with potentially severe impacts on marine food webs, but empirical data documenting ocean pH over time are limited. In a high-resolution dataset spanning 8 years, pH at a north-temperate coastal site declined with increasing atmospheric CO(2) levels and varied substantially in response to biological processes and physical conditions that fluctuate over multiple time scales. Applying a method to link environmental change to species dynamics via multispecies Markov chain models reveals strong links between in situ benthic species dynamics and variation in ocean pH, with calcareous species generally performing more poorly than noncalcareous species in years with low pH. The models project the long-term consequences of these dynamic changes, which predict substantial shifts in the species dominating the habitat as a consequence of both direct effects of reduced calcification and indirect effects arising from the web of species interactions. Our results indicate that pH decline is proceeding at a more rapid rate than previously predicted in some areas, and that this decline has ecological consequences for near shore benthic ecosystems.

Impact of family planning programs in reducing high-risk births due to younger and older maternal age, short birth intervals, and high parity.

PubMed

Brown, Win; Ahmed, Saifuddin; Roche, Neil; Sonneveldt, Emily; Darmstadt, Gary L

2015-08-01

Several studies show that maternal and neonatal/infant mortality risks increase with younger and older maternal age (<18 and >34 years), high parity (birth order >3), and short birth intervals (<24 months). Family planning programs are widely viewed as having contributed to substantial maternal and neonatal mortality decline through contraceptive use--both by reducing unwanted births and by reducing the burden of these high-risk births. However, beyond averting births, the empirical evidence for the role of family planning in reducing high-risk births at population level is limited. We examined data from 205 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), conducted between 1985 and 2013, to describe the trends in high-risk births and their association with the pace of progress in modern contraceptive prevalence rate (yearly increase in rate of MCPR) in 57 developing countries. Using Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique, we then examine the contributions of family planning program, economic development (GDP per capita), and educational improvement (secondary school completion rate) on the progress of MCPR in order to link the net contribution of family planning program to the reduction of high-risk births mediated through contraceptive use. Countries that had the fastest progress in improving MCPR experienced the greatest declines in high-risk births due to short birth intervals (<24 months), high parity births (birth order >3), and older maternal age (>35 years). Births among younger women <18 years, however, did not decline significantly during this period. The decomposition analysis suggests that 63% of the increase in MCPR was due to family planning program efforts, 21% due to economic development, and 17% due to social advancement through women's education. Improvement in MCPR, predominately due to family planning programs, is a major driver of the decline in the burden of high-risk births due to high parity, shorter birth intervals, and older maternal age in developing countries. The lack of progress in the decline of births in younger women <18 years of age underscores the need for more attention to ensure that quality contraceptive methods are available to adolescent women in order to delay first births. This study substantiates the significance of family planning programming as a major health intervention for preventing high-risk births and associated maternal and child mortality, but it highlights the need for concerted efforts to strengthen service provision for adolescents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Devil Declines and Catastrophic Cascades: Is Mesopredator Release of Feral Cats Inhibiting Recovery of the Eastern Quoll?

PubMed Central

Fancourt, Bronwyn A.; Hawkins, Clare E.; Cameron, Elissa Z.; Jones, Menna E.; Nicol, Stewart C.

2015-01-01

The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus) from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll’s range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their former abundance through a ‘predator pit’ effect following weather-induced decline. Predation intensity could increase further should cats become increasingly nocturnal in response to devil declines. PMID:25760348

Devil declines and catastrophic cascades: is mesopredator release of feral cats inhibiting recovery of the eastern quoll?

PubMed

Fancourt, Bronwyn A; Hawkins, Clare E; Cameron, Elissa Z; Jones, Menna E; Nicol, Stewart C

2015-01-01

The eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus) is a medium-sized Australian marsupial carnivore that has recently undergone a rapid and severe population decline over the 10 years to 2009, with no sign of recovery. This decline has been linked to a period of unfavourable weather, but subsequent improved weather conditions have not been matched by quoll recovery. A recent study suggested another mechanism: that declines in Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations, due to the spread of the fatal Devil Facial Tumour Disease, have released feral cats (Felis catus) from competitive suppression, with eastern quoll declines linked to a subsequent increase in cat sightings. Yet current evidence of intraguild suppression among devils, cats and quolls is scant and equivocal. We therefore assessed the influences of top-down effects on abundance and activity patterns among devils, feral cats and eastern quolls. Between 2011 and 2013, we monitored four carnivore populations using longitudinal trapping and camera surveys, and performed camera surveys at 12 additional sites throughout the eastern quoll's range. We did not find evidence of a negative relationship between devil and cat abundance, nor of higher cat abundance in areas where devil populations had declined the longest. Cats did not appear to avoid devils spatially; however, there was evidence of temporal separation of cat and devil activity, with reduced separation and increasing nocturnal activity observed in areas where devils had declined the longest. Cats and quolls used the same areas, and there was no evidence that cat and quoll abundances were negatively related. Temporal overlap in observed cat and quoll activity was higher in summer than in winter, but this seasonal difference was unrelated to devil declines. We suggest that cats did not cause the recent quoll decline, but that predation of juvenile quolls by cats could be inhibiting low density quoll populations from recovering their former abundance through a 'predator pit' effect following weather-induced decline. Predation intensity could increase further should cats become increasingly nocturnal in response to devil declines.

Response of predatory zooplankton populations to the experimental acidification of Little Rock Lake, Wisconsin

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sierszen, M.E.; Frost, T.M.

1993-01-01

To assess the effects of lake acidification on large predatory zooplankton, the authors monitored population levels of four limnetic taxa for 6 years in a lake with two basins, one of which was experimentally acidified (2 years at each of three levels: pH 5.6, 5.2 and 4.7). Concentrations of phantom midge (Chaoborus spp.), the most abundant large predator, remained similar in the treatment and reference basins until the fourth year (pH 5.2) when they increased in the treatment basin. In contrast, Epischura lacustris and Leptodora kindtii disappeared from limnetic samples, and water mites declined to near zero upon acidification. Treatmentmore » basin populations of E. lacustris declined sharply during the second year of acidification. The nature of the decline suggested sensitivity of an early life stage during the first year at pH 5.6. Leptodora kindtii showed no population response at pH 5.6, but declined to essentially zero at pH 5.2. Treatment basin populations of water mites fluctuated until declining in the fifth and sixth years (pH 4.7). These changes indicate a variety of direct and indirect responses to lake acidification.« less

In situ population structure and ex situ representation of the endangered Amur tiger.

PubMed

Henry, P; Miquelle, D; Sugimoto, T; McCullough, D R; Caccone, A; Russello, M A

2009-08-01

The Amur tiger (Panthera tigris altaica) is a critically endangered felid that suffered a severe demographic contraction in the 1940s. In this study, we sampled 95 individuals collected throughout their native range to investigate questions relative to population genetic structure and demographic history. Additionally, we sampled targeted individuals from the North American ex situ population to assess the genetic representation found in captivity. Population genetic and Bayesian structure analyses clearly identified two populations separated by a development corridor in Russia. Despite their well-documented 20th century decline, we failed to find evidence of a recent population bottleneck, although genetic signatures of a historical contraction were detected. This disparity in signal may be due to several reasons, including historical paucity in population genetic variation associated with postglacial colonization and potential gene flow from a now extirpated Chinese population. Despite conflicting signatures of a bottleneck, our estimates of effective population size (N(e) = 27-35) and N(e)/N ratio (0.07-0.054) were substantially lower than the only other values reported for a wild tiger population. Lastly, the extent and distribution of genetic variation in captive and wild populations were similar, yet gene variants persisted ex situ that were lost in situ. Overall, our results indicate the need to secure ecological connectivity between the two Russian populations to minimize loss of genetic diversity and overall susceptibility to stochastic events, and support a previous study suggesting that the captive population may be a reservoir of gene variants lost in situ.

Human Population Decline in North America during the Younger Dryas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Anderson, D. G.; Goodyear, A. C.; Stafford, T. W., Jr.; Kennett, J.; West, A.

2009-12-01

There is ongoing debate about a possible human population decline or contraction at the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) at 12.9 ka. We used two methods to test whether the YD affected human population levels: (1) frequency analyses of Paleoindian projectile points, and (2) summed probability analyses of radiocarbon (14C) dates. The results suggest that a significant decline or reorganization of human populations occurred at 12.9 ka, continued through the initial centuries of the YD chronozone, then rebounded by the end of the YD. FREQUENCY ANALYSES: This method employed projectile point data from the Paleoindian Database of the Americas (PIDBA, http://pidba.utk.edu). We tallied diagnostic projectile points and obtained larger totals for Clovis points than for immediately post-Clovis points, which share an instrument-assisted fluting technique, typically using pressure or indirect percussion. Gainey, Vail, Debert, Redstone, and Cumberland point-styles utilized this method and are comparable to the Folsom style. For the SE U.S., the ratio of Clovis points (n=1993) to post-Clovis points (n=947) reveals a point decline of 52%. For the Great Plains, a comparison of Clovis and fluted points (n=4020) to Folsom points (n=2527) shows a point decline of 37%, which may translate into a population contraction of similar magnitude. In addition, eight major Clovis lithic quarry sites in the SE U.S. exhibit little to no evidence for immediate post-Clovis occupations, implying a major population decline. SUMMED PROBABILITIES: This method involved calibrating relevant 14C dates and combining the probabilities, after which major peaks and troughs in the trends are assumed to reflect changes in human demographics. Using 14C dates from Buchanan et al. (2008), we analyzed multiple regions, including the Southeast and Great Plains. Contrary to Buchanan et al., we found an abrupt, statistically significant decline at 12.9 ka, followed 200 to 900 years later by a rebound in the number of dates. The decline at the YD onset was more than 50%, similar in magnitude to the decline in Clovis-Folsom point ratios. While calibration and sampling factors may affect the trends, this abrupt decline is large and requires explanation. SUMMARY: Even though correlation does not equate with causation, the coeval YD decline in both points and 14C dates appears linked to significant changes in climate and biota, as represented by the megafaunal extinction. While the causes of the YD remain controversial, a human population decline appears to have occurred, at least across parts of North America. Furthermore, the YD onset is associated with the abrupt replacement of Clovis by regional or subregional scale cultural traditions, potentially reflecting decreased range mobility and increased population isolation. Projectile point distributions and summed probability analyses, we argue, are potentially useful approaches for exploring demographic changes at regional scales.

Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects

USGS Publications Warehouse

Pleasants, John M.; Zalucki, Myron P.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Brower, Lincoln P.; Taylor, Orley R.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.

2017-01-01

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

Interpreting surveys to estimate the size of the monarch butterfly population: Pitfalls and prospects.

PubMed

Pleasants, John M; Zalucki, Myron P; Oberhauser, Karen S; Brower, Lincoln P; Taylor, Orley R; Thogmartin, Wayne E

2017-01-01

To assess the change in the size of the eastern North American monarch butterfly summer population, studies have used long-term data sets of counts of adult butterflies or eggs per milkweed stem. Despite the observed decline in the monarch population as measured at overwintering sites in Mexico, these studies found no decline in summer counts in the Midwest, the core of the summer breeding range, leading to a suggestion that the cause of the monarch population decline is not the loss of Midwest agricultural milkweeds but increased mortality during the fall migration. Using these counts to estimate population size, however, does not account for the shift of monarch activity from agricultural fields to non-agricultural sites over the past 20 years, as a result of the loss of agricultural milkweeds due to the near-ubiquitous use of glyphosate herbicides. We present the counter-hypotheses that the proportion of the monarch population present in non-agricultural habitats, where counts are made, has increased and that counts reflect both population size and the proportion of the population observed. We use data on the historical change in the proportion of milkweeds, and thus monarch activity, in agricultural fields and non-agricultural habitats to show why using counts can produce misleading conclusions about population size. We then separate out the shifting proportion effect from the counts to estimate the population size and show that these corrected summer monarch counts show a decline over time and are correlated with the size of the overwintering population. In addition, we present evidence against the hypothesis of increased mortality during migration. The milkweed limitation hypothesis for monarch decline remains supported and conservation efforts focusing on adding milkweeds to the landscape in the summer breeding region have a sound scientific basis.

An historical overview and update of wolf-moose interactions in northeastern Minnesota

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mech, L. David; Fieberg, John; Barber-Meyer, Shannon

2018-01-01

Wolf (Canis lupus) and moose (Alces americanus) populations in northeastern Minnesota, USA, have fluctuated for decades and, based on helicopter counts, moose numbers declined to a new low from 2006 to about 2012. Other steep declines were found in 1991 and 1998 during periods when moose counts were done with ®xed-wing aircraft; these declines also appeared to be real. Winter wolf numbers, monitored in part of the moose range, had been increasing since about 2002 to the highest population in decades in 2009. However, from 2009 to 2016, wolves decreased precipitously, and the moose-population decline leveled off from 2012 to 2017. Calf:population ratios from 1985 to 1997 and from 2005 to 2016 were inversely related to wolf numbers in the wolf-study area the previous winter both as wolves increased and decreased in abundance. Similarly, log annual growth rates of moose numbers were negatively correlated with counts of wolves in the prior year. Other factors such as nutrition and parasites, and possibly climate change, likely have been involved in the recent moose decline. However, wolves, as in other areas, appear to have contributed to the decline in the northeastern Minnesota moose population at least in part through predation on calves, supporting earlier reports. Published 2018. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Population growth, agrarian peasant economy and environmental degradation in Tanzania.

PubMed

Madulu, N F

1995-03-01

Population strategies to relieve the density pressures on land and resources in Tanzania have not considered the basic causes of population growth. Resettlement results in the same environmental degradation as in the original settlement. There should be a reduction in the population growth and planning of proper land use and resource exploitation before resettlement. Rural development must include a decline in the dependency on subsistence agriculture. Population in Tanzania increased by 213% during 1948-88. An absolute increase in population size during 1978-88 is recorded despite a slight decline in the rate of growth. Death rates declined, but birth rates were relatively stable at around 50 per 1000 population. Regions with the highest growth rates were Dar es Salaam (4.8%), Rukwa (4.3%), Arusha (3.8%), Mbeya (3.1%), and Ruvuma (3.2%). The regions with the lowest rates were Tanga and Kilimanjaro (2.1%), Coast (2.1%), Lindi (2%), and Mtwara (1.4%). Low growth rates are attributed to low fertility and high infertility. Other factors affecting high growth rates are culture, rates of natural increase, intensity of internal and international migration, climatic conditions, and availability of resources. In 1988 46% of the population was under 15 years old. Per capita land availability declined from 11.8 hectares in 1948 to 3.8 hectares in 1988. The number of landless peasants increased. Productivity declined, and distances to farms increased. The total fertility rate was 6.5 children per woman in 1988 and 6.1 during 1991-92. Slight declines were apparent in the crude birth rate also. High fertility was a response to universal marriage, low contraceptive use (7% using modern methods during 1991-92), declining lactation periods, high mortality rates, and old traditions favoring large families. Children were used extensively in time-consuming and labor-intensive activities, such as fetching water. The mean number of children ever born was higher among women with 1-4 years of schooling compared to women with no formal education and women with 5 or more years of education. Population growth contributes to deforestation, soil erosion, desertification, famine, drought, flooding, and demand for firewood.

Trends in Global Gender Inequality (Forthcoming, Social Forces).

PubMed

Dorius, Shawn F; Firebaugh, Glenn

2010-07-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality for the world as a whole. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world's population, we examine world trends over recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation, and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually all major domains, that the decline is occurring across diverse religious and cultural traditions, and that population growth is slowing the decline because populations are growing faster in countries where there is the greatest gender inequality.

Trends in Global Gender Inequality (Forthcoming, Social Forces)

PubMed Central

Dorius, Shawn F.; Firebaugh, Glenn

2011-01-01

This study investigates trends in gender inequality for the world as a whole. Using data encompassing a large majority of the world’s population, we examine world trends over recent decades for key indicators of gender inequality in education, mortality, political representation, and economic activity. We find that gender inequality is declining in virtually all major domains, that the decline is occurring across diverse religious and cultural traditions, and that population growth is slowing the decline because populations are growing faster in countries where there is the greatest gender inequality. PMID:21643494

Linkages between large-scale climate patterns and the dynamics of Alaskan caribou populations

Treesearch

Kyle Joly; David R. Klein; David L. Verbyla; T. Scott Rupp; F. Stuart Chapin

2011-01-01

Recent research has linked climate warming to global declines in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus) populations. We hypothesize large-scale climate patterns are a contributing factor explaining why these declines are not universal. To test our hypothesis for such relationships among Alaska caribou herds, we calculated the population growth...

Greater prairie chicken nesting habitat, Sheyenne National Grassland, North Dakota

Treesearch

Clinton McCarthy; Tim Pella; Greg Link; Mark A. Rumble

1997-01-01

Greater prairie chicken (Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus) populations and habitats have declined dramatically in the Great Plains. The Sheyenne National Grassland (SNG) has the largest population of greater prairie chickens in North Dakota, but this population has declined over the past 15 years. Lack of nesting habitat has been identified as a...

Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jenouvrier, Stéphanie; Holland, Marika; Stroeve, Julienne; Serreze, Mark; Barbraud, Christophe; Weimerskirch, Henri; Caswell, Hal

2014-08-01

Climate change has been projected to affect species distribution and future trends of local populations, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) effort. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics differ among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declined by >50% from their current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics, global analyses are critical for conservation. We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangered by future climate change.

Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California

EPA Science Inventory

EPA is announcing the availability of the final report, Analysis of the Causes of a Decline in the San Joaquin Kit Fox Population on the Elk Hills, Naval Petroleum Reserve #1, California. This report describes a causal assessment of the decline in the abundance of San Joaq...

Garter snakes distributions in high elevation aquatic ecosystems: Is there a link with declining amphibian populations and nonnative trout introductions?

Treesearch

K.R. Matthews; R.A. Knapp; K.L. Pope

2002-01-01

ABSTRACT.—The dramatic amphibian population declines reported worldwide likely have important effects on their predators. In the Sierra Nevada, where amphibian declines are well documented and some are closely tied to the introduction of nonnative trout, the mountain garter snake, Thamnophis elegans elegans, preys predominately on amphibians. We surveyed 2103 high-...

Kit fox population trends at the Naval Petroleum Reserves in California

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kato, T.T.; Scrivner, J.H.; Warrick, G.

The San Joaquin kit fox was listed as an endangered subspecies following passage of the Endangered Species Protection Act of 1966, and further classified as rare under the California Endangered Species Act of 1970. The San Joaquin kit fox occurs on the Naval Petroleum Reserves in California administered by the Department of Energy (DOE). A long term kit fox population monitoring program was initiated as part of DOE's mitigation strategy to comply with the Endangered Species Act. In addition to monitoring kit fox populations, the program includes assessments of kit fox prey density and assessments of predator abundance. The objectivesmore » of this study were to: describe the long term changes in the kit fox population on the Reserves and assess the roles of coyotes and lagomorphs in kit fox population dynamics. When the fox population on NPR-1 declined between 1980 and 1984, it appeared to have been negatively impacted by a declining prey base (lagomorphs) and an increasing coyote population. Declining lagomorph densities may have been a more important factor because as coyote numbers declined between 1985 and 1990, the kit fox population remained stable. The fox population on NPR-2 remained at a higher and more stable level than the population on NPR-1. The factors determining the higher densities and greater stability of the fox population on NPR-2 are unknown.« less

Forecasting the burden of future postmenopausal hip fractures.

PubMed

Omsland, T K; Magnus, J H

2014-10-01

A growing elderly population is expected worldwide, and the rate of hip fractures is decisive for the future fracture burden. Significant declines in hip fracture rates in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK are required to counteract the impact of the ageing effects. This study aims to evaluate the consequences of the expected growth of the elderly population worldwide on the hip fracture burden using Norway as an example. Furthermore, we wanted to estimate the decline in hip fracture rates required to counteract the anticipated increase in the burden of hip fracture for Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. The burden of future postmenopausal hip fractures in Norway were estimated given (1) constant age-specific rates, (2) continued decline, and (3) different cohort scenarios. Based on population projection estimates and population age-specific hip fracture rates in women 65 years and older, we calculated the required declines in hip fracture rates needed to counteract the growing elderly populations in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. The level of age-specific hip fracture rates had a huge impact on the future hip fracture burden in Norway. Even if the hip fracture rates decline at the same speed, a 22 % increase in the burden of hip fractures can be expected by 2040. An annual decline in hip fracture rates of 1.1-2.2 % until 2040 is required to counteract the effects of the growing elderly population on the future burden of hip fractures in Norway, the USA, France, Germany, and the UK. Hip fracture rates have a great impact on the burden of hip fractures. The rates will have to decline significantly to counteract the impact of a growing elderly population. A change in preventive strategies and further studies are warranted to identify the complex causes associated to hip fractures.

Invasion dynamics of white-nose syndrome fungus, midwestern United States, 2012-2014.

PubMed

Langwig, Kate E; Hoyt, Joseph R; Parise, Katy L; Kath, Joe; Kirk, Dan; Frick, Winifred F; Foster, Jeffrey T; Kilpatrick, A Marm

2015-06-01

White-nose syndrome has devastated bat populations in eastern North America. In Midwestern United States, prevalence increased quickly in the first year of invasion (2012-13) but with low population declines. In the second year (2013-14), environmental contamination led to earlier infection and high population declines. Interventions must be implemented before or soon after fungal invasion to prevent population collapse.

Resource Wars and Conflict Ivory: The Impact of Civil Conflict on Elephants in the Democratic Republic of Congo - The Case of the Okapi Reserve

PubMed Central

Beyers, Rene L.; Hart, John A.; Sinclair, Anthony R. E.; Grossmann, Falk; Klinkenberg, Brian; Dino, Simeon

2011-01-01

Human conflict generally has substantial negative impacts on wildlife and conservation. The recent civil war (1995-2006) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) resulted in a significant loss of wildlife, including elephants, due to institutional collapse, lawlessness and unbridled exploitation of natural resources such as minerals, wood, ivory and bushmeat. We used data from distance sampling surveys conducted before and after the war in a protected forest, the Okapi Faunal Reserve, to document changes in elephant abundance and distribution. We employed Generalized Additive Models to relate changes in elephant distribution to human and environmental factors. Populations declined by nearly fifty percent coinciding with a major increase in elephant poaching as indicated by reports of ivory trade during the war. Our results suggest that humans influenced elephant distribution far more than habitat, both before and after the war, but post-war models explained more of the variation. Elephant abundance declined more, closer to the park boundary and to areas of intense human activity. After the war, elephant densities were relatively higher in the centre of the park where they were better protected, suggesting that this area may have acted as a refuge. In other sites in Eastern DRC, where no protection was provided, elephants were even more decimated. Post-war dynamics, such as weakened institutions, human movements and availability of weapons, continue to affect elephants. Survival of remaining populations and recovery will be determined by these persistent factors and by new threats associated with growing human populations and exploitation of natural resources. Prioritizing wildlife protection, curbing illegal trade in ivory and bushmeat, and strengthening national institutions and organizations in charge of conservation will be crucial to counter these threats. PMID:22096529

Resource wars and conflict ivory: the impact of civil conflict on elephants in the Democratic Republic of Congo--the case of the Okapi Reserve.

PubMed

Beyers, Rene L; Hart, John A; Sinclair, Anthony R E; Grossmann, Falk; Klinkenberg, Brian; Dino, Simeon

2011-01-01

Human conflict generally has substantial negative impacts on wildlife and conservation. The recent civil war (1995-2006) in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) resulted in a significant loss of wildlife, including elephants, due to institutional collapse, lawlessness and unbridled exploitation of natural resources such as minerals, wood, ivory and bushmeat. We used data from distance sampling surveys conducted before and after the war in a protected forest, the Okapi Faunal Reserve, to document changes in elephant abundance and distribution. We employed Generalized Additive Models to relate changes in elephant distribution to human and environmental factors. Populations declined by nearly fifty percent coinciding with a major increase in elephant poaching as indicated by reports of ivory trade during the war. Our results suggest that humans influenced elephant distribution far more than habitat, both before and after the war, but post-war models explained more of the variation. Elephant abundance declined more, closer to the park boundary and to areas of intense human activity. After the war, elephant densities were relatively higher in the centre of the park where they were better protected, suggesting that this area may have acted as a refuge. In other sites in Eastern DRC, where no protection was provided, elephants were even more decimated. Post-war dynamics, such as weakened institutions, human movements and availability of weapons, continue to affect elephants. Survival of remaining populations and recovery will be determined by these persistent factors and by new threats associated with growing human populations and exploitation of natural resources. Prioritizing wildlife protection, curbing illegal trade in ivory and bushmeat, and strengthening national institutions and organizations in charge of conservation will be crucial to counter these threats.

Recent trends in breast cancer incidence in US white women by county-level urban/rural and poverty status.

PubMed

Hausauer, Amelia K; Keegan, Theresa H M; Chang, Ellen T; Glaser, Sally L; Howe, Holly; Clarke, Christina A

2009-06-26

Unprecedented declines in invasive breast cancer rates occurred in the United States between 2001 and 2004, particularly for estrogen receptor-positive tumors among non-Hispanic white women over 50 years. To understand the broader public health import of these reductions among previously unstudied populations, we utilized the largest available US cancer registry resource to describe age-adjusted invasive and in situ breast cancer incidence trends for non-Hispanic white women aged 50 to 74 years overall and by county-level rural/urban and poverty status. We obtained invasive and in situ breast cancer incidence data for the years 1997 to 2004 from 29 population-based cancer registries participating in the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries resource. Annual age-adjusted rates were examined overall and by rural/urban and poverty of patients' counties of residence at diagnosis. Joinpoint regression was used to assess trends by annual quarter of diagnosis. Between 2001 and 2004, overall invasive breast cancer incidence fell 13.2%, with greater reductions among women living in urban (-13.8%) versus rural (-7.5%) and low- (-13.0%) or middle- (-13.8%) versus high- (-9.6%) poverty counties. Most incidence rates peaked around 1999 then declined after second quarter 2002, although in rural counties, rates decreased monotonically after 1999. Similar but more attenuated patterns were seen for in situ cancers. Breast cancer rates fell more substantially in urban and low-poverty, affluent counties than in rural or high-poverty counties. These patterns likely reflect a major influence of reductions in hormone therapy use after July 2002 but cannot exclude possible effects due to screening patterns, particularly among rural populations where hormone therapy use was probably less prevalent.

Scale-dependent associations of Band-tailed Pigeon counts at mineral sites

USGS Publications Warehouse

Overton, Cory T.; Casazza, Michael L.; Coates, Peter S.

2010-01-01

The abundance of Band-tailed Pigeons (Patagioenas fasciata monilis) has declined substantially from historic numbers along the Pacific Coast. Identification of patterns and causative factors of this decline are hampered because habitat use data are limited, and temporal and spatial variability patterns associated with population indices are not known. Furthermore, counts are influenced not only by pigeon abundance but also by rate of visitation to mineral sites, which may not be consistent. To address these issues, we conducted mineral site counts during 2001 and 2002 at 20 locations from 4 regions in the Pacific Northwest, including central Oregon and western Washington, USA, and British Columbia, Canada. We developed inference models that consisted of environmental factors and spatial characteristics at multiple spatial scales. Based on information theory, we compared models within a final set that included variables measured at 3 spatial scales (0.03 ha, 3.14 ha, and 7850 ha). Pigeon counts increased from central Oregon through northern Oregon and decreased into British Columbia. After accounting for this spatial pattern, we found that pigeon counts increased 12% ± 2.7 with a 10% increase in the amount of deciduous forested area within 100 m from a mineral site. Also, distance from the mineral site of interest to the nearest known mineral site was positively related to pigeon counts. These findings provide direction for future research focusing on understanding the relationships between indices of relative abundance and complete counts (censuses) of pigeon populations by identifying habitat characteristics that might influence visitation rates. Furthermore, our results suggest that spatial arrangement of mineral sites influences Band-tailed Pigeon counts and the populations which those counts represent.

Molecular footprints of the Holocene retreat of dwarf birch in Britain

PubMed Central

Wang, Nian; Borrell, James S; Bodles, William J A; Kuttapitiya, Anasuya; Nichols, Richard A; Buggs, Richard J A

2014-01-01

Past reproductive interactions among incompletely isolated species may leave behind a trail of introgressed alleles, shedding light on historical range movements. Betula pubescens is a widespread native tetraploid tree species in Britain, occupying habitats intermediate to those of its native diploid relatives, B. pendula and B. nana. Genotyping 1134 trees from the three species at 12 microsatellite loci, we found evidence of introgression from both diploid species into B. pubescens, despite the ploidy difference. Surprisingly, introgression from B. nana, a dwarf species whose present range is highly restricted in northern, high-altitude peat bogs, was greater than introgression from B. pendula, which is morphologically similar to B. pubescens and has a substantially overlapping range. A cline of introgression from B. nana was found extending into B. pubescens populations far to the south of the current B. nana range. We suggest that this genetic pattern is a footprint of a historical decline and/or northwards shift in the range of B. nana populations due to climate warming in the Holocene. This is consistent with pollen records that show a broader, more southerly distribution of B. nana in the past. Ecological niche modelling predicts that B. nana is adapted to a larger range than it currently occupies, suggesting additional factors such as grazing and hybridization may have exacerbated its decline. We found very little introgression between B. nana and B. pendula, despite both being diploid, perhaps because their distributions in the past have rarely overlapped. Future conservation of B. nana may partly depend on minimization of hybridization with B. pubescens, and avoidance of planting B. pendula near B. nana populations. PMID:24762172

Is Chytridiomycosis an Emerging Infectious Disease in Asia?

PubMed Central

Swei, Andrea; Rowley, Jodi J. L.; Rödder, Dennis; Diesmos, Mae L. L.; Diesmos, Arvin C.; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Brown, Rafe; Cao, Trung Tien; Cheng, Tina L.; Chong, Rebecca A.; Han, Ben; Hero, Jean-Marc; Hoang, Huy Duc; Kusrini, Mirza D.; Le, Duong Thi Thuy; McGuire, Jimmy A.; Meegaskumbura, Madhava; Min, Mi-Sook; Mulcahy, Daniel G.; Neang, Thy; Phimmachak, Somphouthone; Rao, Ding-Qi; Reeder, Natalie M.; Schoville, Sean D.; Sivongxay, Niane; Srei, Narin; Stöck, Matthias; Stuart, Bryan L.; Torres, Lilia S.; Tran, Dao Thi Anh; Tunstall, Tate S.; Vieites, David; Vredenburg, Vance T.

2011-01-01

The disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has caused dramatic amphibian population declines and extinctions in Australia, Central and North America, and Europe. Bd is associated with >200 species extinctions of amphibians, but not all species that become infected are susceptible to the disease. Specifically, Bd has rapidly emerged in some areas of the world, such as in Australia, USA, and throughout Central and South America, causing population and species collapse. The mechanism behind the rapid global emergence of the disease is poorly understood, in part due to an incomplete picture of the global distribution of Bd. At present, there is a considerable amount of geographic bias in survey effort for Bd, with Asia being the most neglected continent. To date, Bd surveys have been published for few Asian countries, and infected amphibians have been reported only from Indonesia, South Korea, China and Japan. Thus far, there have been no substantiated reports of enigmatic or suspected disease-caused population declines of the kind that has been attributed to Bd in other areas. In order to gain a more detailed picture of the distribution of Bd in Asia, we undertook a widespread, opportunistic survey of over 3,000 amphibians for Bd throughout Asia and adjoining Papua New Guinea. Survey sites spanned 15 countries, approximately 36° latitude, 111° longitude, and over 2000 m in elevation. Bd prevalence was very low throughout our survey area (2.35% overall) and infected animals were not clumped as would be expected in epizootic events. This suggests that Bd is either newly emerging in Asia, endemic at low prevalence, or that some other ecological factor is preventing Bd from fully invading Asian amphibians. The current observed pattern in Asia differs from that in many other parts of the world. PMID:21887238

Walking or dancing: patterns of physical activity by cross-sectional age among U.S. women.

PubMed

Fan, Jessie X; Kowaleski-Jones, Lori; Wen, Ming

2013-10-01

To identify age differences in physical activity (PA) participation for women. Data from 3,952 women 25+ from the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) were used to analyze participation patterns for 17 PA types. The top five leisure PAs by participation rate for all ages were walking (42%), dancing (20%), treadmill (15%), biking (11%), and yoga (10%). Participation in running, dancing, treadmill, and team sports declined around ages 35 to 44, and participation in household PA, walking, weightlifting, and hiking declined around ages 55 to 64. At age 75+ further substantial decline in most activities occurred. Nativity status was the most important moderator for age-related PA decline. Total PA declines with age but significant decline does not occur until ages 55 to 64. Major decline in leisure PA participation starts earlier at ages 35 to 44. While age-related declining patterns differ for different activities, the top five most popular leisure activities are similar for all age groups.

Comparison of harvest scenarios for the cost-effective suppression of Lake Trout in Swan Lake, Montana

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syslo, John M.; Guy, Christopher S.; Cox, Benjamin S.

2013-01-01

Given the large amount of resources required for long-term control or eradication projects, it is important to assess strategies and associated costs and outcomes before a particular plan is implemented. We developed a population model to assess the cost-effectiveness of mechanical removal strategies for suppressing long-term abundance of nonnative Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush in Swan Lake, Montana. We examined the efficacy of targeting life stages (i.e., juveniles or adults) using temporally pulsed fishing effort for reducing abundance and program cost. Exploitation rates were high (0.80 for juveniles and 0.68 for adults) compared with other lakes in the western USA with Lake Trout suppression programs. Harvesting juveniles every year caused the population to decline, whereas harvesting only adults caused the population to increase above carrying capacity. Simultaneous harvest of juveniles and adults was required to cause the population to collapse (i.e., 95% reduction relative to unharvested abundance) with 95% confidence. The population could collapse within 15 years for a total program cost of US$1,578,480 using the most aggressive scenario. Substantial variation in cost existed among harvest scenarios for a given reduction in abundance; however, total program cost was minimized when collapse was rapid. Our approach provides a useful case study for evaluating long-term mechanical removal options for fish populations that are not likely to be eradicated.

Incorporating diverse data and realistic complexity into demographic estimation procedures for sea otters

USGS Publications Warehouse

Tinker, M. Timothy; Doak, Daniel F.; Estes, James A.; Hatfield, Brian B.; Staedler, Michelle M.; Gross, Arthur

2006-01-01

Reliable information on historical and current population dynamics is central to understanding patterns of growth and decline in animal populations. We developed a maximum likelihood-based analysis to estimate spatial and temporal trends in age/sex-specific survival rates for the threatened southern sea otter (Enhydra lutris nereis), using annual population censuses and the age structure of salvaged carcass collections. We evaluated a wide range of possible spatial and temporal effects and used model averaging to incorporate model uncertainty into the resulting estimates of key vital rates and their variances. We compared these results to current demographic parameters estimated in a telemetry-based study conducted between 2001 and 2004. These results show that survival has decreased substantially from the early 1990s to the present and is generally lowest in the north-central portion of the population's range. The greatest temporal decrease in survival was for adult females, and variation in the survival of this age/sex class is primarily responsible for regulating population growth and driving population trends. Our results can be used to focus future research on southern sea otters by highlighting the life history stages and mortality factors most relevant to conservation. More broadly, we have illustrated how the powerful and relatively straightforward tools of information-theoretic-based model fitting can be used to sort through and parameterize quite complex demographic modeling frameworks. ?? 2006 by the Ecological Society of America.

Investigating Rates of Hunting and Survival in Declining European Lapwing Populations

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Understanding effects of harvest on population dynamics is of major interest, especially for declining species. European lapwing Vanellus vanellus populations increased from the 1960s until the 1980s and declined strongly thereafter. About 400,000 lapwings are harvested annually and it is thus of high conservation relevance to assess whether hunting was a main cause for the observed changes in lapwing population trends. We developed a multi-event cause-specific mortality model which we applied to a long-term ring-recovery data set (1960–2010) of > 360,000 records to estimate survival and cause-specific mortalities. We found no temporal change in survival over the last 50 years for first-year (FY) and older birds (after first-year; AFY) originating from different ringing areas. Mean survival was high, around 0.60 and 0.80 for FY and AFY individuals, respectively. The proportion of total mortality due to hunting was <0.10 over the study period and the estimated proportion of harvested individuals (kill rate) was <0.05 in each year. Our result of constant survival indicates that demographic processes other than survival were responsible for the pronounced change in lapwing population trends in the 1980s. Our findings lend support to the hypothesis that hunting was not a significant contributor to the large-scale decline of lapwing populations. To halt the ongoing decline of European lapwing populations management should focus on life history stages other than survival (e.g. productivity). Further analyses are required to investigate the contribution of other demographic rates to the decline of lapwings and to identify the most efficient conservation actions. PMID:27685660

Effect of diel activity patterns and harvesting pressure on the diversity and biomass of sea cucumbers in Marovo Lagoon, Solomon Islands.

PubMed

Buckius, Christine; Albert, Simon; Tibbetts, Ian; Udy, James

2010-05-01

A marked decline in the contribution by Marovo Lagoon to the annual total bêche-de-mer production of the Solomon Islands from 58% in 1989 to 17% in 2003 prompted investigation of their current biomass and diversity. We also assessed changes to critical ecological services and the prospects for population recovery following a fisheries closure. Day time and nocturnal transects revealed a mean abundance of 32.4 (SD = 5.3) low value species per ha (e.g. Holothuria atra, H. edulis, H. coluber and Thelenota anax) and 15.2 (SD = 2.7) high value species per ha (e.g. H. fuscogilva, Actinopyga lecanora, Stichopus hermanni and Thelenota ananas). Following a 17 month closure of the fishery (2005-2007), the abundance of bêche-de-mer was reported by local fisherman to have increased; however, no scientific studies were conducted that can substantiate this community held belief. The current study aimed to document the impact of re-opening the fishery in 2007 and documented a decline in high value species of 9% over a 5 month period following the opening of the fishery, while low value species continued to increase in abundance by 11%, over the same period based on nocturnal surveys. Continued observation of the recovery, post closure, and any subsequent harvest in Marovo will be required to properly understand population dynamics and provide a sustainable harvest plan for bêche-de-mer in the future.

Long-term effects of mechanical harvesting of lugworms Arenicola marina on the zoobenthic community of a tidal flat in the Wadden Sea

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beukema, J. J.

More than half of the annual catch of about 30 million lugworms Arenicola marina from the Dutch Wadden Sea originates from digging machines which make 40-cm deep guilles in a few restricted tidal-flat areas (Texel, Balgzand) in the westernmost part of the Wadden Sea. Four successive years (1978-1982) of frequent disturbance by a lugworm dredge of one of the 15 sampling stations involved in a long-term study of the dynamics of the macrozoobenthos on Balgzand allowed a study of long-term effects of mechanical lugworm digging. Within an area of about 1 km 2, a near-doubling of the annual lugworm mortality rate resulted in a gradual and substantial decline of the local lugworm stock from more than twice the overall Balgzand mean at the start of the 4-year digging period to a value close to this mean at the end of the period (when the dredge moved to a richer area). Simultaneously, total zoobenthic biomass declined even more by the almost complete extinction of the population of larger gaper clams Mya arenaria that initially comprised half of the total biomass. Of the other, mostly short-lived, species only Heteromastus filiformis showed a clear reduction during the dredging period. Recovery of the biomass of the benthos took several years, particularly by the slow re-establishment of a Mya population with a normal size and age structure.

Effect of Diel Activity Patterns and Harvesting Pressure on the Diversity and Biomass of Sea Cucumbers in Marovo Lagoon, Solomon Islands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Buckius, Christine; Albert, Simon; Tibbetts, Ian; Udy, James

2010-05-01

A marked decline in the contribution by Marovo Lagoon to the annual total bêche-de-mer production of the Solomon Islands from 58% in 1989 to 17% in 2003 prompted investigation of their current biomass and diversity. We also assessed changes to critical ecological services and the prospects for population recovery following a fisheries closure. Day time and nocturnal transects revealed a mean abundance of 32.4 (SD = 5.3) low value species per ha (e.g. Holothuria atra, H. edulis, H. coluber and Thelenota anax) and 15.2 (SD = 2.7) high value species per ha (e.g. H. fuscogilva, Actinopyga lecanora, Stichopus hermanni and Thelenota ananas). Following a 17 month closure of the fishery (2005-2007), the abundance of bêche-de-mer was reported by local fisherman to have increased; however, no scientific studies were conducted that can substantiate this community held belief. The current study aimed to document the impact of re-opening the fishery in 2007 and documented a decline in high value species of 9% over a 5 month period following the opening of the fishery, while low value species continued to increase in abundance by 11%, over the same period based on nocturnal surveys. Continued observation of the recovery, post closure, and any subsequent harvest in Marovo will be required to properly understand population dynamics and provide a sustainable harvest plan for bêche-de-mer in the future.

Killer Whale Nuclear Genome and mtDNA Reveal Widespread Population Bottleneck during the Last Glacial Maximum

PubMed Central

Moura, Andre E.; Janse van Rensburg, Charlene; Pilot, Malgorzata; Tehrani, Arman; Best, Peter B.; Thornton, Meredith; Plön, Stephanie; de Bruyn, P.J. Nico; Worley, Kim C.; Gibbs, Richard A.; Dahlheim, Marilyn E.; Hoelzel, Alan Rus

2014-01-01

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline. PMID:24497033

A prospective cohort study of long-term cognitive changes in older Medicare beneficiaries.

PubMed

Wolinsky, Fredric D; Bentler, Suzanne E; Hockenberry, Jason; Jones, Michael P; Weigel, Paula A; Kaskie, Brian; Wallace, Robert B

2011-09-20

Promoting cognitive health and preventing its decline are longstanding public health goals, but long-term changes in cognitive function are not well-documented. Therefore, we first examined long-term changes in cognitive function among older Medicare beneficiaries in the Survey on Assets and Health Dynamics among the Oldest Old (AHEAD), and then we identified the risk factors associated with those changes in cognitive function. We conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective, population-based cohort using baseline (1993-1994) interview data linked to 1993-2007 Medicare claims to examine cognitive function at the final follow-up interview which occurred between 1995-1996 and 2006-2007. Besides traditional risk factors (i.e., aging, age, race, and education) and adjustment for baseline cognitive function, we considered the reason for censoring (entrance into managed care or death), and post-baseline continuity of care and major health shocks (hospital episodes). Residual change score multiple linear regression analysis was used to predict cognitive function at the final follow-up using data from telephone interviews among 3,021 to 4,251 (sample size varied by cognitive outcome) baseline community-dwelling self-respondents that were ≥ 70 years old, not in managed Medicare, and had at least one follow-up interview as self-respondents. Cognitive function was assessed using the 7-item Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS-7; general mental status), and the 10-item immediate and delayed (episodic memory) word recall tests. Mean changes in the number of correct responses on the TICS-7, and 10-item immediate and delayed word recall tests were -0.33, -0.75, and -0.78, with 43.6%, 54.9%, and 52.3% declining and 25.4%, 20.8%, and 22.9% unchanged. The main and most consistent risks for declining cognitive function were the baseline values of cognitive function (reflecting substantial regression to the mean), aging (a strong linear pattern of increased decline associated with greater aging, but with diminishing marginal returns), older age at baseline, dying before the end of the study period, lower education, and minority status. In addition to aging, age, minority status, and low education, substantial and differential risks for cognitive change were associated with sooner vs. later subsequent death that help to clarify the terminal drop hypothesis. No readily modifiable protective factors were identified.

Age Specific Survival Rates of Steller Sea Lions at Rookeries with Divergent Population Trends in the Russian Far East

PubMed Central

Altukhov, Alexey V.; Andrews, Russel D.; Calkins, Donald G.; Gelatt, Thomas S.; Gurarie, Eliezer D.; Loughlin, Thomas R.; Mamaev, Evgeny G.; Nikulin, Victor S.; Permyakov, Peter A.; Ryazanov, Sergey D.; Vertyankin, Vladimir V.; Burkanov, Vladimir N.

2015-01-01

After a dramatic population decline, Steller sea lions have begun to recover throughout most of their range. However, Steller sea lions in the Western Aleutians and Commander Islands are continuing to decline. Comparing survival rates between regions with different population trends may provide insights into the factors driving the dynamics, but published data on vital rates have been extremely scarce, especially in regions where the populations are still declining. Fortunately, an unprecedented dataset of marked Steller sea lions at rookeries in the Russian Far East is available, allowing us to determine age and sex specific survival in sea lions up to 22 years old. We focused on survival rates in three areas in the Russian range with differing population trends: the Commander Islands (Medny Island rookery), Eastern Kamchatka (Kozlov Cape rookery) and the Kuril Islands (four rookeries). Survival rates differed between these three regions, though not necessarily as predicted by population trends. Pup survival was higher where the populations were declining (Medny Island) or not recovering (Kozlov Cape) than in all Kuril Island rookeries. The lowest adult (> 3 years old) female survival was found on Medny Island and this may be responsible for the continued population decline there. However, the highest adult survival was found at Kozlov Cape, not in the Kuril Islands where the population is increasing, so we suggest that differences in birth rates might be an important driver of these divergent population trends. High pup survival on the Commander Islands and Kamchatka Coast may be a consequence of less frequent (e.g. biennial) reproduction there, which may permit females that skip birth years to invest more in their offspring, leading to higher pup survival, but this hypothesis awaits measurement of birth rates in these areas. PMID:26016772

Climate alters response of an endemic island plant to removal of invasive herbivores.

PubMed

McEachern, A Kathryn; Thomson, Diane M; Chess, Katherine A

2009-09-01

Islands experience higher rates of species extinction than mainland ecosystems, with biological invasions among the leading causes; they also serve as important model systems for testing ideas in basic and applied ecology. Invasive removal programs on islands are conservation efforts that can also be viewed as powerful manipulative experiments, but few data are available to evaluate their effects. We collected demographic and herbivore damage data for Castilleja mollis Pennell, an endangered plant endemic to Santa Rosa Island, California, over a 12-year period before, during, and after the implementation of control for introduced cattle, deer, and elk. We used these long-term data to explore mechanisms underlying herbivore effects, assess the results of herbivore reduction at the scales of both individual plants and populations, and determine how temporal variability in herbivory and plant demography influenced responses to herbivore removals. For individual plants, herbivore effects mediated by disturbance were greater than those of grazing. Deer and elk scraping of the ground substantially increased plant mortality and dormancy and reduced flowering and growth. Stem damage from browsing did not affect survivorship but significantly reduced plant growth and flower production. Herbivore control successfully lowered damage rates, which declined steeply between 1997 and 2000 and have remained relatively low. Castilleja mollis abundances rose sharply after 1997, suggesting a positive effect of herbivore control, but then began to decline steadily again after 2003. The recent decline appears to be driven by higher mean growing season temperatures; interestingly, not only reductions in scraping damage but a period of cooler conditions were significant in explaining increases in C. mollis populations between 1997 and 2002. Our results demonstrate strong effects of introduced herbivores on both plant demography and population dynamics and show that climate-driven variation may counteract and mask positive responses to herbivore removal. Regional mean temperatures already have risen significantly over the last 50 years, suggesting that climate change could increasingly swamp the effects of management targeted at other environmental problems. Similar interactions between climate and invasive species will play an even greater role in future management, with long-term data sets like this critical to quantifying such effects.

Climate alters response of an endemic island plant to removal of invasive herbivores

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kathryn, Mceachern A.; Thomson, D.M.; Chess, K.A.

2009-01-01

Islands experience higher rates of species extinction than mainland ecosystems, with biological invasions among the leading causes; they also serve as important model systems for testing ideas in basic and applied ecology. Invasive removal programs on islands are conservation efforts that can also be viewed as powerful manipulative experiments, but few data are available to evaluate their effects. We collected demographic and herbivore damage data for Castilleja mollis Pennell, an endangered plant endemic to Santa Rosa Island, California, over a 12-year period before, during, and after the implementation of control for introduced cattle, deer, and elk. We used these long-term data to explore mechanisms underlying herbivore effects, assess the results of herbivore reduction at the scales of both individual plants and populations, and determine how temporal variability in herbivory and plant demography influenced responses to herbivore removals. For individual plants, herbivore effects mediated by disturbance were greater than those of grazing. Deer and elk scraping of the ground substantially increased plant mortality and dormancy and reduced flowering and growth. Stem damage from browsing did not affect survivorship but significantly reduced plant growth and flower production. Herbivore control successfully lowered damage rates, which declined steeply between 1997 and 2000 and have remained relatively low. Castilleja mollis abundances rose sharply after 1997, suggesting a positive effect of herbivore control, but then began to decline steadily again after 2003. The recent decline appears to be driven by higher mean growing season temperatures; interestingly, not only reductions in scraping damage but a period of cooler conditions were significant in explaining increases in C. mollis populations between 1997 and 2002. Our results demonstrate strong effects of introduced herbivores on both plant demography and population dynamics and show that climate-driven variation may counteract and mask positive responses to herbivore removal. Regional mean temperatures already have risen significantly over the last 50 years, suggesting that climate change could increasingly swamp the effects of management targeted at other environmental problems. Similar interactions between climate and invasive species will play an even greater role in future management, with long-term data sets like this critical to quantifying such effects. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Long-Term Protection against Diphtheria in the Netherlands after 50 Years of Vaccination: Results from a Seroepidemiological Study

PubMed Central

Swart, E. M.; van Gageldonk, P. G. M.; de Melker, H. E.; van der Klis, F. R.; Berbers, G. A. M.; Mollema, L.

2016-01-01

Background and Aims To evaluate the National Immunisation Programme (NIP) a population-based cross-sectional seroepidemiological study was performed in the Netherlands. We assessed diphtheria antitoxin levels in the general Dutch population and in low vaccination coverage (LVC) areas where a relatively high proportion of orthodox Protestants live who decline vaccination based on religious grounds. Results were compared with a nationwide seroepidemiological study performed 11 years earlier. Methods In 2006/2007 a national serum bank was established. Blood samples were tested for diphtheria antitoxin IgG concentrations using a multiplex immunoassay for 6383 participants from the national sample (NS) and 1518 participants from LVC municipalities. A cut-off above 0.01 international units per ml (IU/ml) was used as minimum protective level. Results In the NS 91% of the population had antibody levels above 0.01 IU/ml compared to 88% in the 1995/1996 serosurvey (p<0.05). On average, 82% (vs. 78% in the 1995/1996 serosurvey, p<0.05) of individuals from the NS born before introduction of diphtheria vaccination in the NIP and 46% (vs. 37% in the 1995/1996 serosurvey, p = 0.11) of orthodox Protestants living in LVC areas had antibody levels above 0.01 IU/ml. Linear regression analysis among fully immunized individuals (six vaccinations) without evidence of revaccination indicated a continuous decline in antibodies in both serosurveys, but geometric mean antibodies remained well above 0.01 IU/ml in all age groups. Conclusions The NIP provides long-term protection against diphtheria, although antibody levels decline after vaccination. As a result of natural waning immunity, a substantial proportion of individuals born before introduction of diphtheria vaccination in the NIP lack adequate levels of diphtheria antibodies. Susceptibility due to lack of vaccination is highest among strictly orthodox Protestants. The potential risk of spread of diphtheria within the geographically clustered orthodox Protestant community after introduction in the Netherlands has not disappeared, despite national long-term high vaccination coverage. PMID:26863307

Population genetic structure of endangered Mongolian racerunner (Eremias argus) from the Korean Peninsula.

PubMed

Park, Han-Chan; Suk, Ho Young; Jeong, Eu-Jin; Park, Dae-Sik; Lee, Hang; Min, Mi-Sook

2014-11-01

The Mongolian racerunner (Eremias argus) is a small lacertid lizard species, and its distribution range encompasses the Korean Peninsula, Mongolia, China and Russia. Eremias argus is widespread, but populations on the Korean Peninsula are small and declining, provoking concerns that genetic diversity is being lost. This species is currently listed under the Protection of Wild Fauna and Flora Act in South Korea. In this study, nine novel microsatellites for E. argus were developed with a biotin-enrichment method and used to understand its population genetic structure and delineate conservation units on the Korean Peninsula. Overall, low intrapopulation genetic diversity was observed (mean number of alleles per locus = 2.463; mean H E = 0.398) from 10 populations investigated (n = 110). Two populations (among five with n≥ 10) showed an excess of heterozygosity expected under HWE relative to that expected at mutation-drift equilibrium, indicating severe reduction in population sizes. With only a few exceptions, the overall genetic differentiation among populations was substantial with the high levels of pairwise-F ST (0.006-0.746) and -R ST (0.034-0.940) values. The results of Bayesian STRUCTURE analysis showed that E. argus populations on the Korean Peninsula were most likely partitioned into three genetic clusters. Taken all together, such low levels of gene flow and strong genetic structuring have critical implications for the conservation of this endangered species and its management.

Estimating the contribution of genetic variants to difference in incidence of disease between population groups.

PubMed

Moonesinghe, Ramal; Ioannidis, John P A; Flanders, W Dana; Yang, Quanhe; Truman, Benedict I; Khoury, Muin J

2012-08-01

Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic susceptibility variants to several complex human diseases. However, risk-genotype frequency at loci showing robust associations might differ substantially among different populations. In this paper, we present methods to assess the contribution of genetic variants to the difference in the incidence of disease between different population groups for different scenarios. We derive expressions for the contribution of a single genetic variant, multiple genetic variants, and the contribution of the joint effect of a genetic variant and an environmental factor to the difference in the incidence of disease. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence increases with increasing difference in risk-genotype frequency, but declines with increasing difference in incidence between the two populations. The contribution of genetic variants also increases with increasing relative risk and the contribution of joint effect of genetic and environmental factors increases with increasing relative risk of the gene-environmental interaction. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence between two populations can be expressed as a function of the population attributable risks of the genetic variants in the two populations. The contribution of a group of genetic variants to the disparity in incidence of disease could change considerably by adding one more genetic variant to the group. Any estimate of genetic contribution to the disparity in incidence of disease between two populations at this stage seems to be an elusive goal.

Estimating the contribution of genetic variants to difference in incidence of disease between population groups

PubMed Central

Moonesinghe, Ramal; Ioannidis, John PA; Flanders, W Dana; Yang, Quanhe; Truman, Benedict I; Khoury, Muin J

2012-01-01

Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic susceptibility variants to several complex human diseases. However, risk-genotype frequency at loci showing robust associations might differ substantially among different populations. In this paper, we present methods to assess the contribution of genetic variants to the difference in the incidence of disease between different population groups for different scenarios. We derive expressions for the contribution of a single genetic variant, multiple genetic variants, and the contribution of the joint effect of a genetic variant and an environmental factor to the difference in the incidence of disease. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence increases with increasing difference in risk-genotype frequency, but declines with increasing difference in incidence between the two populations. The contribution of genetic variants also increases with increasing relative risk and the contribution of joint effect of genetic and environmental factors increases with increasing relative risk of the gene–environmental interaction. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence between two populations can be expressed as a function of the population attributable risks of the genetic variants in the two populations. The contribution of a group of genetic variants to the disparity in incidence of disease could change considerably by adding one more genetic variant to the group. Any estimate of genetic contribution to the disparity in incidence of disease between two populations at this stage seems to be an elusive goal. PMID:22333905

Rinderpest: the veterinary perspective on eradication

PubMed Central

Roeder, Peter; Mariner, Jeffrey; Kock, Richard

2013-01-01

Rinderpest was a devastating disease of livestock responsible for continent-wide famine and poverty. Centuries of veterinary advances culminated in 2011 with the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and the World Organization for Animal Health declaring global eradication of rinderpest; only the second disease to be eradicated and the greatest veterinary achievement of our time. Conventional control measures, principally mass vaccination combined with zoosanitary procedures, led to substantial declines in the incidence of rinderpest. However, during the past decades, innovative strategies were deployed for the last mile to overcome diagnostic and surveillance challenges, unanticipated variations in virus pathogenicity, circulation of disease in wildlife populations and to service remote and nomadic communities in often-unstable states. This review provides an overview of these challenges, describes how they were overcome and identifies key factors for this success. PMID:23798687

Safety in the operating theatre--a transition to systems-based care.

PubMed

Weiser, Thomas G; Porter, Michael P; Maier, Ronald V

2013-03-01

All surgeons want the best, safest care for their patients, but providing this requires the complex coordination of multiple disciplines to ensure that all elements of care are timely, appropriate, and well organized. Quality-improvement initiatives are beginning to lead to improvements in the quality of care and coordination amongst teams in the operating room. As the population ages and patients present with more complex disease pathology, the demands for efficient systematization will increase. Although evidence suggests that postoperative mortality rates are declining, there is substantial room for improvement. Multiple quality metrics are used as surrogates for safe care, but surgical teams--including surgeons, anaesthetists, and nurses--must think beyond these simple interventions if they are to effectively communicate and coordinate in the face of increasing demands.

Projections of the Size and Composition of the U.S. Population: 2014 to 2060. Population Estimates and Projections. Current Population Reports. P25-1143

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Colby, Sandra L.; Ortman, Jennifer M.

2015-01-01

Between 2014 and 2060, the U.S. population is projected to increase from 319 million to 417 million, reaching 400 million in 2051. The U.S. population is projected to grow more slowly in future decades than in the recent past, as these projections assume that fertility rates will continue to decline and that there will be a modest decline in the…

Decline in Interest in Biology among Elementary School Pupils during a Generation

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Randler, Christoph; Osti, Janina; Hummel, Eberhard

2012-01-01

A decline in biology interest has often been claimed but seldom with an empirically substantiation. This study was based on a sample of 3rd and 4th grade pupils within the same geographical area as Lowe's (1987, 1992) previous results from southwest Germany from the year 1983. We used a four-point Likert-type questionnaire to assess interest with…

[Speech by Oscar Julian Bardeci, director of the Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia (CELADE), at the Latinamerican Regional Meeting prior to the International Conference on Population in recognition of the Second Meeting on Population by the Committee of Upper-Level Government Experts (CEGAN), Havana, Cuba, November 16-19, 1983].

PubMed

Bardeci, O J

1983-12-01

This work examines the relationship between population growth and economic development in Latin America and assesses progress in the 10 years since the Bucharest World Population Conference. The Latin American population increased from about 159 million in 1950 to 275 million in 1970 and around 325 million in 1980. The rate of growth reached a maximum of 2.8%/year in the early 1970s and has now declined to about 2.3%/year. The regional growth rate is a product of population dynamics that differ greatly in individual countries. Crude birth rates declined in every country of Latin America between 1975-80, but still exceeded 40/1000 in 1980-85 in Bolivia, Ecuador, El Salvador, Haiti, Honduras, and Nicaragua. Current fertility is the result of the different trajectories of the demographic transition in different countries. While fertility in Argentina, Cuba, and Uruguay underwent a slow but sustained decline that began prior to 1960, other countries including Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, and Venezuela began an accelerated fertility decline in the 1960s that diffused rapidly through all age and social groups. Other countries have still not entered a definite phase of fertility decline. Mortality rates have declined appreciably in Latin America in the past few decades although they remain high in some countries. After the end of World War II and until the mid-1970s, most countries of the region experienced rapid economic growth coupled with profound changes in the productive structure. The industrial labor force grew in almost all countries along with urbanization, the decline of agricultural employment, and the increase of the tertiary sector. These and other important economic advances through the mid-1970s occurred despite rapid population growth, and the beginning of the fertility decline coincided with slowing economic growth that saw negative rates in 1981-82. Various studies have shown that not all population sectors were incorporated in the process of economic and social development. The proportion of the population in active age groups has increased dramatically, but no corresponding increase in employment opportunities has occurred. The informal sector has absorbed most of the excess growth, a trend reflected in the exclusion of a large segment of the population from the fruits of economic progress. Population growth and increased life expectancy have created demands for more retirement benefits, health and educational services, transportation, recreation, and housing. Nevertheless, it cannot be concluded that rapid population growth necessarily has negative consequences for economic development or social welfare. There are indications that the problem of poverty in Latin America could be solved if the political will to do so existed; obstacles to overcoming poverty are not primarily material or population-related. Urbanization, settlement of marginal areas, and relative decline of agricultural areas are 3 trends in spatial distribution of varying intensity and repercussions in different countries.

Growing hickories (Carya spp.) for roost trees: A method to support conservation of declining bat populations

Treesearch

Tara Luna; Daniel L. Lindner; R. Kasten Dumroese

2014-01-01

Bats (Vespertilionidae and Phyllostomidae) are a critically important component of North American ecosystems. These insectivorous mammals provide largely unrecognized ecosystem services to agriculture and forest health and sustain bat-dependent native plant populations. The decline of North American bat populations reflects the recent emergence of the fungal disease...

Ups and Downs of Burbot and their predator Lake Trout in Lake Superior, 1953-2011

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gorman, Owen T.; Sitar, Shawn P.

2013-01-01

The fish community of Lake Superior has undergone a spectacular cycle of decline and recovery over the past 60 years. A combination of Sea Lamprey Petromyzon marinus depredation and commercial overfishing resulted in severe declines in Lake Trout Salvelinus namaycush, which served as the primary top predator of the community. Burbot Lota lota populations also declined as a result of Sea Lamprey depredation, largely owing to the loss of adult fish. After Sea Lamprey control measures were instituted in the early 1960s, Burbot populations rebounded rapidly but Lake Trout populations recovered more slowly and recovery was not fully evident until the mid-1980s. As Lake Trout populations recovered, Burbot populations began to decline, and predation on small Burbot was identified as the most likely cause. By 2000, Burbot densities had dropped below their nadir in the early 1960s and have continued to decline, with the densities of juveniles and small adults falling below that of large adults. Although Burbot populations are at record lows in Lake Superior, the density of large reproductive adults remains stable and a large reserve of adult Burbot is present in deep offshore waters. The combination of the Burbot's early maturation, long life span, and high fecundity provides the species with the resiliency to remain a viable member of the Lake Superior fish community into the foreseeable future.

Lion (Panthera leo) populations are declining rapidly across Africa, except in intensively managed areas.

PubMed

Bauer, Hans; Chapron, Guillaume; Nowell, Kristin; Henschel, Philipp; Funston, Paul; Hunter, Luke T B; Macdonald, David W; Packer, Craig

2015-12-01

We compiled all credible repeated lion surveys and present time series data for 47 lion (Panthera leo) populations. We used a Bayesian state space model to estimate growth rate-λ for each population and summed these into three regional sets to provide conservation-relevant estimates of trends since 1990. We found a striking geographical pattern: African lion populations are declining everywhere, except in four southern countries (Botswana, Namibia, South Africa, and Zimbabwe). Population models indicate a 67% chance that lions in West and Central Africa decline by one-half, while estimating a 37% chance that lions in East Africa also decline by one-half over two decades. We recommend separate regional assessments of the lion in the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List of Threatened Species: already recognized as critically endangered in West Africa, our analysis supports listing as regionally endangered in Central and East Africa and least concern in southern Africa. Almost all lion populations that historically exceeded ∼ 500 individuals are declining, but lion conservation is successful in southern Africa, in part because of the proliferation of reintroduced lions in small, fenced, intensively managed, and funded reserves. If management budgets for wild lands cannot keep pace with mounting levels of threat, the species may rely increasingly on these southern African areas and may no longer be a flagship species of the once vast natural ecosystems across the rest of the continent.

Population dynamics of Amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik: 1966-2012.

PubMed

Miquelle, Dale G; Smirnov, Evgeny N; Zaumyslova, Olga Yu; Soutyrina, Svetlana V; Johnson, Douglas H

2015-07-01

In 2010, the world's tiger (Panthera tigris) range countries agreed to the goal of doubling tiger numbers over 12 years, but whether such an increase is biologically feasible has not been assessed. Long-term monitoring of tigers in Sikhote-Alin Biosphere Zapovednik (SABZ), Russia provided an opportunity to determine growth rates of a recovering population. A 41-year growth phase was followed by a rapid decline in tiger numbers. Annual growth rates during the growth phase averaged 4.6%, beginning near 10% in the earliest years but quickly dropping below 5%. Sex ratio (females per male) mirrored growth rates, declining as population size increased. The rapid decline from 2009 to 2012 appeared to be tied to multiple factors, including poaching, severe winters and disease. Reproductive indicators of this population are similar to those of Bengal tiger populations, suggesting that growth rates may be similar. These results suggest that, first, tiger populations likely in general grow slowly: 3-5% yearly increases are realistic and larger growth rates are likely only when populations are highly depressed, mortality rates are low and prey populations are high relative to numbers of adult females. Second, while more research is needed, it should not be assumed that tiger populations with high prey densities will necessarily grow more quickly than populations with low prey densities. Third, while growth is slow, decline can be rapid. Fourth, because declines can happen so quickly, there is a constant need to monitor populations and be ready to respond with appropriate and timely conservation interventions if tiger populations are to remain secure. Finally, an average annual growth rate across all tiger populations of 6%, required to reach the Global Tiger Initiative's goal of doubling tiger numbers in 12 years, is a noble but unlikely scenario. © 2015 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Spatio-temporal spawning and larval dynamics of a zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) population in a North Texas Reservoir: implications for invasions in the southern United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Churchill, Christopher John

2013-01-01

Zebra mussels were first observed in Texas in 2009 in a reservoir (Lake Texoma) on the Texas-Oklahoma border. In 2012, an established population was found in a near-by reservoir, Ray Roberts Lake, and in June 2013, settled mussels were detected in a third north Texas reservoir, Lake Lewisville. An established population was detected in Belton Lake in September 2013. With the exception of Louisiana, these occurrences in Texas mark the current southern extent of the range of this species in the United States. Previous studies indicate that zebra mussel populations could be affected by environmental conditions, especially increased temperatures and extreme droughts, which are characteristic of surface waters of the southern and southwestern United States. Data collected during the first three years (2010–12) of a long-term monitoring program were analyzed to determine if spatio-temporal zebra mussel spawning and larval dynamics were related to physicochemical water properties in Lake Texoma. Reproductive output of the local population was significantly related to water temperature and lake elevation. Estimated mean date of first spawn in Lake Texoma was approximately 1.5 months earlier and peak veliger densities were observed two months earlier than in Lake Erie. Annual maximum veliger density declined significantly during the study period (p < 0.0001). A population crash occurred as a result of thermal stress and variability of lake elevation. In summer 2011, water temperatures peaked at 34.3°C and lake elevation declined to the lowest level recorded during the previous 18 years, which resulted in desiccation of substantial numbers of settled mussels in littoral zones. Veliger spatial distributions were associated with physicochemical stratification characteristics. Veligers were observed in the deepest oxygenated water after lake stratification, which occurred in late spring. Results of this study indicate environmental conditions can influence variability of population sizes and spatial distributions of zebra mussels along the current southern frontier of their geographic range. Although the future population size trajectory and geographic range are uncertain, increased temperatures and intermittent, extreme droughts likely will affect spatio-temporal dynamics of established populations if zebra mussels spread farther into the southern and southwestern United States.

The association between cognitive decline and incident depressive symptoms in a sample of older Puerto Rican adults with diabetes.

PubMed

Bell, Tyler; Dávila, Ana Luisa; Clay, Olivio; Markides, Kyriakos S; Andel, Ross; Crowe, Michael

2017-08-01

Older Puerto Rican adults have particularly high risk of diabetes compared to the general US population. Diabetes is associated with both higher depressive symptoms and cognitive decline, but less is known about the longitudinal relationship between cognitive decline and incident depressive symptoms in those with diabetes. This study investigated the association between cognitive decline and incident depressive symptoms in older Puerto Rican adults with diabetes over a four-year period. Households across Puerto Rico were visited to identify a population-based sample of adults aged 60 years and over for the Puerto Rican Elderly: Health Conditions study (PREHCO); 680 participants with diabetes at baseline and no baseline cognitive impairment were included in analyses. Cognitive decline and depressive symptoms were measured using the Mini-Mental Cabán (MMC) and Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS), respectively. We examined predictors of incident depressive symptoms (GDS ≥ 5 at follow-up but not baseline) and cognitive decline using regression modeling. In a covariate-adjusted logistic regression model, cognitive decline, female gender, and greater diabetes-related complications were each significantly associated with increased odds of incident depressive symptoms (p < 0.05). In a multiple regression model adjusted for covariates, incident depressive symptoms and older age were associated with greater cognitive decline, and higher education was related to less cognitive decline (p < 0.05). Incident depressive symptoms were more common for older Puerto Ricans with diabetes who also experienced cognitive decline. Efforts are needed to optimize diabetes management and monitor for depression and cognitive decline in this population.

The relationship between Big-5 personality traits and cognitive ability in older adults - a review.

PubMed

Curtis, Rachel G; Windsor, Tim D; Soubelet, Andrea

2015-01-01

It is well established that fundamental aspects of cognition such as memory and speed of processing tend to decline with age; however, there is substantial between-individual variability in levels of cognitive performance in older adulthood and in rates of change in cognitive abilities over time. Recent years have seen an increasing number of studies concerned with examining personality characteristics as possible predictors of some of this variability in cognitive aging. The purpose of this article is to review the literature, and identify patterns of findings regarding the relationships between personality (focusing on the Big-5) and cognitive ability across nonclinical populations of older adults. Possible mechanisms underlying associations of personality characteristics with cognition are reviewed, and assessed in the context of the current literature. Some relatively consistent relationships are identified, including positive associations between openness and cognitive ability, and associations of conscientiousness with slower rates of cognitive decline. However, the relationships between several personality traits and cognitive abilities in older adults remain unclear. We suggest some approaches to research design and analysis that may help increase our understanding of how personality differences may contribute to cognitive aging.

Avian malaria Plasmodium relictum in native Hawaiian forest birds: epizootiology and demographic impacts on ‵apapane Himatione sanguinea

USGS Publications Warehouse

Atkinson, Carter T.; Samuel, Michael D.

2010-01-01

The role of introduced avian malaria Plasmodium relictum in the decline and extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds has become a classic example of the potential effect of invasive diseases on biological diversity of naïve populations. However, empirical evidence describing the impact of avian malaria on fitness of Hawai‵i's endemic forest birds is limited, making it difficult to determine the importance of disease among the suite of potential limiting factors affecting the distribution and abundance of this threatened avifauna. We combined epidemiological force-of-infection with multistate capture––recapture models to evaluate a 7-year longitudinal study of avian malaria in ‵apapane, a relatively common native honeycreeper within mid-elevation Hawaiian forests. We found that malaria transmission was seasonal in this mid-elevation forest; transmission peaked during fall and during some years produced epizootic mortality events. Estimated annual mortality of hatch-year birds typically exceeded 50% and mortality of adults exceeded 25% during epizootics. The substantial impact of avian malaria on this relatively common native species demonstrates the key role this disease has played in the decline and extinction of Hawaiian forest birds.

Endogenous technological and population change under increasing water scarcity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pande, S.; Ertsen, M.; Sivapalan, M.

2013-11-01

The ancient civilization in the Indus Valley civilization dispersed under extreme dry conditions; there are indications that the same holds for many other ancient societies. Even contemporary societies, such as the one in Murrumbidgee river basin in Australia, have started to witness a decline in overall population under increasing water scarcity. Hydroclimatic change may not be the sole predictor of the fate of contemporary societies in water scarce regions and many critics of such (perceived) hydroclimatic determinism have suggested that technological change may ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity and as such counter the effects of hydroclimatic changes. To study the role of technological change on the dynamics of coupled human-water systems, we develop a simple overlapping-generations model of endogenous technological and demographic change. We model technological change as an endogenous process that depends on factors such as the investments that are (endogenously) made in a society, the (endogenous) diversification of a society into skilled and unskilled workers, a society's patience in terms of its present consumption vs. future consumption, production technology and the (endogenous) interaction of all of these factors. In the model the population growth rate is programmed to decline once consumption per capita crosses a "survival" threshold. This means we do not treat technology as an exogenous random sequence of events, but instead assume that it results (endogenously) from societal actions. The model demonstrates that technological change may indeed ameliorate the effects of increasing water scarcity but typically it does so only to a certain extent. It is possible that technological change may allow a society to escape the effect of increasing water scarcity, leading to a (super)-exponential rise in technology and population. However, such cases require the rate of success of investment in technological advancement to be high. In other more realistic cases of technological success, we find that endogenous technology change only helps to delay the peak of population size before it inevitably starts to decline. While the model is a rather simple model of societal development, it is shown to be capable of replicating patterns of technological and population changes. It is capable of replicating the pattern of declining consumption per capita in presence of growth in aggregate production. It is also capable of replicating an exponential population rise, even under increasing water scarcity. The results of the model suggest that societies that declined or are declining in the face of extreme water scarcity may have done so due to slower rate of success of investment in technological advancement. The model suggests that the population decline occurs after a prolonged decline in consumption per capita, which in turn is due to the joint effect of initially increasing population and increasing water scarcity. This is despite technological advancement and increase in aggregate production. We suggest that declining consumption per capita despite technological advancement and increase in aggregate production may serve as a useful predictor of upcoming decline in contemporary societies in water scarce basins.

A review of possible causes of nutrient enrichment and decline of endangered sucker populations in Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bortleson, Gilbert C.; Fretwell, Marvin O.

1993-01-01

Ten possible causes for this excessive enrichment in nutrients are described. Three of these hypotheses are suggested for immediate testing because of large-scale changes in nutrient loading that may have occurred as a result of man’s activities. These three hypotheses relate nutrient enrichment to (1) conversion of marshland to agricultural land, (2) agricultural drainage from the basin, and (3) reservoir regulation. Eleven possible hypothetical causes for the decline in sucker populations also are described. The decline in sucker population may be related to excessive nutrient enrichment (eutrophication) of the lake.

The sequential megafaunal collapse hypothesis: Testing with existing data

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

DeMaster, Douglas P.; Trites, Andrew W.; Clapham, Phillip; Mizroch, Sally; Wade, Paul; Small, Robert J.; Hoef, Jay Ver

2006-02-01

Springer et al. [Springer, A.M., Estes, J.A., van Vliet, G.B., Williams, T.M., Doak, D.F., Danner, E.M., Forney, K.A., Pfister, B., 2003. Sequential megafaunal collapse in the North Pacific Ocean: an ongoing legacy of industrial whaling? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 100 (21), 12,223-12,228] hypothesized that great whales were an important prey resource for killer whales, and that the removal of fin and sperm whales by commercial whaling in the region of the Bering Sea/Aleutian Islands (BSAI) in the late 1960s and 1970s led to cascading trophic interactions that caused the sequential decline of populations of harbor seal, northern fur seal, Steller sea lion and northern sea otter. This hypothesis, referred to as the Sequential Megafaunal Collapse (SMC), has stirred considerable interest because of its implication for ecosystem-based management. The SMC has the following assumptions: (1) fin whales and sperm whales were important as prey species in the Bering Sea; (2) the biomass of all large whale species (i.e., North Pacific right, fin, humpback, gray, sperm, minke and bowhead whales) was in decline in the Bering Sea in the 1960s and early 1970s; and (3) pinniped declines in the 1970s and 1980s were sequential. We concluded that the available data are not consistent with the first two assumptions of the SMC. Statistical tests of the timing of the declines do not support the assumption that pinniped declines were sequential. We propose two alternative hypotheses for the declines that are more consistent with the available data. While it is plausible, from energetic arguments, for predation by killer whales to have been an important factor in the declines of one or more of the three populations of pinnipeds and the sea otter population in the BSAI region over the last 30 years, we hypothesize that the declines in pinniped populations in the BSAI can best be understood by invoking a multiple factor hypothesis that includes both bottom-up forcing (as indicated by evidence of nutritional stress in the western Steller sea lion population) and top-down forcing (e.g., predation by killer whales, mortality incidental to commercial fishing, directed harvests). Our second hypothesis is a modification of the top-down forcing mechanism (i.e., killer whale predation on one or more of the pinniped populations and the sea otter population is mediated via the recovery of the eastern North Pacific population of the gray whale). We remain skeptical about the proposed link between commercial whaling on fin and sperm whales, which ended in the mid-1960s, and the observed decline of populations of northern fur seal, harbor seal, and Steller sea lion some 15 years later.

Evolution of Gender Differences in Post-Secondary Human Capital Investments: College Majors. Working Paper #03-11

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Gemici, Ahu; Wiswall, Matthew

2011-01-01

Over the past 40 years, the level of human capital investments has changed substantially for men and women. Changes in the intensive margin of college major selection have been also been substantial, as the number of graduates in humanities, social science, and teaching has declined, and the number in science, engineering, and business has…

Long-term decline and short-term crash of the once abundant Rusty Blackbird

USGS Publications Warehouse

Greenberg, R.; Blancher, P.; Niven, D.; Droege, S.

2008-01-01

The Rusty Blackbird (Euphagus carolinus), a formerly common breeding species of boreal wetlands, has exhibited the most marked decline of any North American landbird. North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) trends in abundance are estimated to be -12.5% / yr over the last 40 years, which is tantamount to a >95% cumulative decline. Trends in abundance calculated from Christmas Bird Counts (CBC) for a similar period indicate a range-wide decline of -5.6% / yr. Qualitative analyses of ornithological accounts suggest the species has been declining for over a century before the period covered by the estimated declines. Several studies document range retraction in the southern boreal forest, whereas limited data suggest that abundance may be more stable in more northerly areas. This pattern is both supported and contradicted by winter declines based in CBC data. The lower estimates of decline in the CBC data compared to BBS is consistent with the idea that the coverage of BBS is biased towards the southern boreal whereas CBC covers the entire winter range. However, the CBC declines are similar between the South Atlantic coast (with populations derived from the southeastern boreal) and the Mississippi Valley (populations from the northwest boreal). The major hypotheses for the decline include degradation of boreal habitats from logging and agricultural agricultural development, mercury contamination, and wetland desiccation resulting from global warming. Other likely reasons for decline include loss or degradation of wooded wetlands of the southeastern U.S and mortality associated with abatement efforts targeting nuisance blackbirds. We present a matrix of hypotheses and predictions that test them based on the geography of decline and more detailed indicators of population health which should form the strategic basis of future research.

Analysis of health data from 10 years of Polaris submarine patrols.

PubMed

Tansey, W A; Wilson, J M; Schaefer, K E

1979-01-01

Medical reports from 885 Fleet Ballistic Missile (FBM) submarine patrols (7,650,000 man-days) were analyzed. The data were categorized and compared with data obtained by medical personnel from surface fleet personnel (1,215,918 man-days) during a continuous 7--8 months' deployment of surface vessels in 1973. Surface fleet personnel had a higher illness rate in the categories of respiratory, traumatic, gastrointestinal, dermal, infections, and miscellaneous illness, and a lower rate in genitourinary, systemic (including mononucleosis), cranial, and neuropsychiatric illness compared to submarine personnel. Because of improved atmosphere control, a sharp decline in the level of submarine contaminants occurred between 1965--67. Reports from the 1968--73 period showed a decrease in: 1) respiratory; 2) ear, nose, and throat; 3) gastrointestinal; 4) cardiovascular; 5) urologic; and 6) general medical illness categories; the number of general surgery, orthopedics, dental, and eye illness cases was not affected. Neurologic and psychiatric disease showed the only increases in incidence for this period. The overall decrease in illness can be attributed mainly to the fall in the incidence of respiratory disease, known to be affected by reduced air pollution, and the decline in gastrointestinal illness. This decline occurred in a period during which the incidence of both classes of illness went up in the general population, according to the Health Interview Survey published by DHEW. The improvement of atmosphere control in submarines caused a substantial reduction in contaminants (a decline in tobacco smoking also occurred in this period), which led to a decrease in incidence of illness, particularly respiratory disease. No direct causal relationship between reduction in air pollution and reduction in the incidence of disease could be proven within the framework of this study, however.

Population-level impact of Zimbabwe's National Behavioural Change Programme.

PubMed

Buzdugan, Raluca; Benedikt, Clemens; Langhaug, Lisa; Copas, Andrew; Mundida, Oscar; Mugurungi, Owen; Watadzaushe, Constancia; Dirawo, Jeffrey; Tambashe, Basile O; Chidiya, Samson; Woelk, Godfrey; Cowan, Frances M

2014-12-15

To assess the impact of Zimbabwe's National Behavioural Change Programme (NBCP) on biological and behavioral outcomes. Representative household biobehavioral surveys of 18- to 44-year-olds were conducted in randomly selected enumeration areas in 2007 and 2011 to 2012. We examined program impact on HIV prevalence among young women, nonregular partnerships, condom use with nonregular partners, and HIV testing, distinguishing between highly exposed and low-exposed communities and individuals. We conducted (1) difference-in-differences analyses with communities as unit of analysis and (2) analyses of key outcomes by individual-level program exposure. Four thousand seven hundred seventy-six people were recruited in 2007 and 10,059 in 2011 to 2012. We found high exposure to NBCP in 2011. Prevalence of HIV and reported risky behaviors declined between 2007 and 2011. Community-level analyses showed a smaller decline in HIV prevalence among young women in highly exposed areas (11.0%-10.1%) than low-exposed areas (16.9%-10.3%, P = 0.078). Among young men, uptake of nonregular partners declined more in highly exposed areas (25%-16.8%) than low-exposed areas (21.9%-20.7%, P = 0.055) and HIV testing increased (27.2%-46.1% vs. 31.0%-34.4%, P = 0.004). Individual-level analyses showed higher reported condom use with nonregular partners among highly exposed young women (53% vs. 21% of unexposed counterparts, P = 0.037). We conducted the first impact evaluation of a NBCP and found positive effects of program exposure on key behaviors among certain gender and age groups. HIV prevalence among young women declined but could not be attributed to program exposure. These findings suggest substantial program effects regarding demand creation and justify program expansion.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels this century will alter the protein, micronutrients, and vitamin content of rice grains with potential health consequences for the poorest rice-dependent countries

PubMed Central

Zhu, Jianguo; Jiang, Qian; Xu, Xi; Liu, Gang; Ebi, Kristie L.; Drewnowski, Adam

2018-01-01

Declines of protein and minerals essential for humans, including iron and zinc, have been reported for crops in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, [CO2]. For the current century, estimates of the potential human health impact of these declines range from 138 million to 1.4 billion, depending on the nutrient. However, changes in plant-based vitamin content in response to [CO2] have not been elucidated. Inclusion of vitamin information would substantially improve estimates of health risks. Among crop species, rice is the primary food source for more than 2 billion people. We used multiyear, multilocation in situ FACE (free-air CO2 enrichment) experiments for 18 genetically diverse rice lines, including Japonica, Indica, and hybrids currently grown throughout Asia. We report for the first time the integrated nutritional impact of those changes (protein, micronutrients, and vitamins) for the 10 countries that consume the most rice as part of their daily caloric supply. Whereas our results confirm the declines in protein, iron, and zinc, we also find consistent declines in vitamins B1, B2, B5, and B9 and, conversely, an increase in vitamin E. A strong correlation between the impacts of elevated [CO2] on vitamin content based on the molecular fraction of nitrogen within the vitamin was observed. Finally, potential health risks associated with anticipated CO2-induced deficits of protein, minerals, and vitamins in rice were correlated to the lowest overall gross domestic product per capita for the highest rice-consuming countries, suggesting potential consequences for a global population of approximately 600 million. PMID:29806023

Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels this century will alter the protein, micronutrients, and vitamin content of rice grains with potential health consequences for the poorest rice-dependent countries.

PubMed

Zhu, Chunwu; Kobayashi, Kazuhiko; Loladze, Irakli; Zhu, Jianguo; Jiang, Qian; Xu, Xi; Liu, Gang; Seneweera, Saman; Ebi, Kristie L; Drewnowski, Adam; Fukagawa, Naomi K; Ziska, Lewis H

2018-05-01

Declines of protein and minerals essential for humans, including iron and zinc, have been reported for crops in response to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, [CO 2 ]. For the current century, estimates of the potential human health impact of these declines range from 138 million to 1.4 billion, depending on the nutrient. However, changes in plant-based vitamin content in response to [CO 2 ] have not been elucidated. Inclusion of vitamin information would substantially improve estimates of health risks. Among crop species, rice is the primary food source for more than 2 billion people. We used multiyear, multilocation in situ FACE (free-air CO 2 enrichment) experiments for 18 genetically diverse rice lines, including Japonica, Indica, and hybrids currently grown throughout Asia. We report for the first time the integrated nutritional impact of those changes (protein, micronutrients, and vitamins) for the 10 countries that consume the most rice as part of their daily caloric supply. Whereas our results confirm the declines in protein, iron, and zinc, we also find consistent declines in vitamins B1, B2, B5, and B9 and, conversely, an increase in vitamin E. A strong correlation between the impacts of elevated [CO 2 ] on vitamin content based on the molecular fraction of nitrogen within the vitamin was observed. Finally, potential health risks associated with anticipated CO 2 -induced deficits of protein, minerals, and vitamins in rice were correlated to the lowest overall gross domestic product per capita for the highest rice-consuming countries, suggesting potential consequences for a global population of approximately 600 million.

Defaunation in the Anthropocene.

PubMed

Dirzo, Rodolfo; Young, Hillary S; Galetti, Mauro; Ceballos, Gerardo; Isaac, Nick J B; Collen, Ben

2014-07-25

We live amid a global wave of anthropogenically driven biodiversity loss: species and population extirpations and, critically, declines in local species abundance. Particularly, human impacts on animal biodiversity are an under-recognized form of global environmental change. Among terrestrial vertebrates, 322 species have become extinct since 1500, and populations of the remaining species show 25% average decline in abundance. Invertebrate patterns are equally dire: 67% of monitored populations show 45% mean abundance decline. Such animal declines will cascade onto ecosystem functioning and human well-being. Much remains unknown about this "Anthropocene defaunation"; these knowledge gaps hinder our capacity to predict and limit defaunation impacts. Clearly, however, defaunation is both a pervasive component of the planet's sixth mass extinction and also a major driver of global ecological change. Copyright © 2014, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development

PubMed Central

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, Jay E.; Loss, Scott R.; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management activity. PMID:26963254

Prioritizing avian species for their risk of population-level consequences from wind energy development

USGS Publications Warehouse

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Loss, Scott; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management activity.

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development.

PubMed

Beston, Julie A; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Loss, Scott R; Johnson, Douglas H

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species' distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species' conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson's hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management activity.

Tuberculosis disease among Mexico-born individuals living in New York City, 2001-2014.

PubMed

Stennis, N L; Meissner, J S; Bhavnani, D; Kreiswirth, B; Ahuja, S Desai

2017-06-01

Tuberculosis (TB) has decreased substantially in New York City (NYC), but progress has slowed in recent years. Continued declines will require novel approaches tailored to foreign-born populations. To describe TB epidemiology among the Mexico-born population of NYC to inform interventions in this community. The study included NYC patients with TB disease identified from 2001 to 2014. Incidence rates were compared by country of birth groupings. Demographic and patient characteristics were analyzed for all Mexico-born TB patients. Patients were compared by Mycobacterium bovis vs. non-M. bovis TB strain. Culture-confirmed patients were compared by genotype clustering status. From 2001 to 2014, 621 Mexico-born TB patients were identified in NYC. TB rates were significantly higher among Mexico-born vs. US-born persons every year. Mexico-born patients had lived in the United States for a median 7 years at diagnosis. The geographic distribution of Mexico-born TB patients was similar to that of the total Mexico-born population. Overall, 71% of patients reported previous employment; 52% of non-M. bovis patients were clustered based on genotyping results. Our results provide a foundation to inform future interventions in the Mexico-born population. Additional work is needed to explore possible local TB transmission and health care-seeking practices.

Demography and decline of the Mentasta Caribou Herd, Alaska

USGS Publications Warehouse

Jenkins, Kurt J.; Barten, Neil L.

2005-01-01

We evaluated population trends in the Mentasta caribou (Rangifer tarandus (L., 1758)) herd in Wrangell a?? St. Elias National Park and Preserve, Alaska, from 1990 to 1997 and determined factors contributing to its decline. We postulated that predation-related mortality of adult females and juveniles was the proximate cause of the decline, and that survival of juvenile caribou reflected interactions with winter severity, calving distribution, timing of births, density of caribou, and physical condition of neonates at birth. The population declined at its greatest rate from 1990 to 1993 (r = a??0.32) and at a lower rate from 1994 to 1997 (r = a??0.09). Recruitment (number of calves/100 females during September) averaged 4/100 during the rapid population decline from 1990 to 1993 and 13/100 from 1994 to 1997. Parturition rate of adult females ranged from 65% to 97%. Survival of adult females and juveniles ranged from 0.77 to 0.86 and from 0.00 to 0.22, respectively. Approximately 43%, 59%, and 79% of all juvenile mortality occurred by 1, 2, and 4 weeks of age, respectively. We confirmed predation-related mortality as the primary proximate cause of population decline, with gray wolves (Canis lupus L., 1758), bears (species of the genus Ursus L., 1758), and other predators accounting for 57%, 38%, and 5%, respectively, of all juvenile mortality, and bears causing disproportionate mortality among 0- to 1-week-old neonates. We supported the hypotheses that timing of birth and habitat conditions at the birth site, particularly mottled snow patterns, affected vulnerability and survival of neonates, and birth mass affected survival of juveniles through summer. We speculate that the population will continue to decline before reaching a low-density equilibrium that is sustained by density-dependent changes in the functional responses of predators.

Fitness decline under osmotic stress in Caenorhabditis elegans populations subjected to spontaneous mutation accumulation at varying population sizes.

PubMed

Katju, Vaishali; Packard, Lucille B; Keightley, Peter D

2018-04-01

The consequences of mutations for population fitness depends on their individual selection coefficients and the effective population size. An earlier study of Caenorhabditis elegans spontaneous mutation accumulation lines evolved for 409 generations at three population sizes found that N e   = 1 populations declined significantly in fitness whereas the fitness of larger populations (N e   = 5, 50) was indistinguishable from the ancestral control under benign conditions. To test if larger MA populations harbor a load of cryptic deleterious mutations that are obscured under benign laboratory conditions, we measured fitness under osmotic stress via exposure to hypersaline conditions. The fitness of N e   = 1 lines exhibited a further decline under osmotic stress compared to benign conditions. However, the fitness of larger populations remained indistinguishable from that of the ancestral control. The average effects of deleterious mutations in N e   = 1 lines were estimated to be 22% for productivity and 14% for survivorship, exceeding values previously detected under benign conditions. Our results suggest that fitness decline is due to large effect mutations that are rapidly removed via selection even in small populations, with implications for conservation practices. Genetic stochasticity may not be as potent and immediate a threat to the persistence of small populations as other demographic and environmental stochastic factors. © 2018 The Author(s). Evolution © 2018 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

Conservation status of the buff-breasted sandpiper: Historic and contemporary distribution and abundance in south America

USGS Publications Warehouse

Lanctot, Richard B.; Blanco, D.E.; Dias, Rafael A.; Isacch, Juan P.; Gill, Verena A.; Almeida, Juliana B.; Delhey, Kaspar; Petracci, Pablo F.; Bencke, Glayson A.; Balbueno, Rodrigo A.

2002-01-01

We present historic and contemporary information on the distribution and abundance of Buff-breasted Sandpipers (Tryngites subruficollis) in South America. Historic information was collated from the literature, area ornithologists, and museums, whereas contemporary data were derived from surveys conducted throughout the main wintering range in Argentina, Uruguay, and Brazil during the austral summers of 1999 and 2001. Variable circular plot sampling was used to estimate population densities. During 1999, the highest concentration of Buff-breasted Sandpipers in Argentina was in southern Bahía Samborombón (General Lavalle District) and areas north of Mar Chiquita coastal lagoon. During 2001, the highest concentrations in Brazil were at Ilha da Torotama and Lagoa do Peixe National Park. During 1999 and 2001, the highest concentrations of Buff-breasted Sandpipers in Uruguay were found along three lagoons (Laguna de Rocha, Laguna de Castillos, and Laguna Garzón) bordering the Atlantic Ocean. Population densities (birds/ha) of Buff-breasted Sandpipers were 0.11 (95% C.I. = 0.04–0.31) in Argentina, 1.62 (0.67–3.93) in Brazil, and 1.08 (0.37–3.18) in Uruguay. High turnover rates at survey sites, due to the formation of large, mobile flocks, contributed to moderately large confidence intervals around our population density estimates. Nevertheless, compared with historic accounts of Buff-breasted Sandpipers, our survey data indicate the population size of this species has declined substantially since the late 1800s and contemporary information suggests the species has continued to decline during the past three decades. Buff-breasted Sandpipers were found almost exclusively in pasturelands and appear to depend heavily upon intensive grazing by livestock, which maintain suitable short grass conditions. We discuss the need for protection of critical areas and proper range management to ensure appropriate habitat remains available for the species, and provide suggestions for future research needs.

Evolution of China's family planning policy and fertility transition.

PubMed

Lin, F

1998-06-01

This article points out the important role of family planning (FP) in controlling population growth in China. The impact of development on fertility decline is much slower. China's current FP policy promotes deferred marriage and deferred childbearing and fewer, but healthier, births. The policy promotes one child per couple. Rural couples in certain circumstances, such as if the first birth is a girl, are allowed to have a second child that is properly spaced. FP should be promoted in ethnic inhabited areas. Under this policy, fertility declined from 2.59 to 2 children/woman during the period 1987-92. In more developed areas, fertility has declined below replacement level to 1.6. FP was first promoted in the National Program for Agricultural Development in the 1950s. Birth control was promoted in densely populated areas without high minority concentrations. Fertility hovered around 6.1 during 1950-57. The Cultural Revolution halted fertility decline. The 1974 FP policy emphasized deferred marriage and deferred childbearing, and spaced (by 4-5 years) but fewer births. Fertility declined from 4.2 to 2.3 during 1974-80, in response to the government directive. Rural population declined from 4.6 to 2.5, and urban population declined from 2.0 to 1.15. The one-child policy was promoted in 1980 and became official state policy. FP became an obligation to the state. Rural areas were less compliant with the one-child policy, which led to the 1984 allowances for a second child.

The urban decline of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus): a possible link with electromagnetic radiation.

PubMed

Balmori, Alfonso; Hallberg, Orjan

2007-01-01

During recent decades, there has been a marked decline of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus) population in the United Kingdom and in several western European countries. The aims of this study were to determine whether the population is also declining in Spain and to evaluate the hypothesis that electromagnetic radiation (microwaves) from phone antennae is correlated with the decline in the sparrow population. Between October 2002 and May 2006, point transect sampling was performed at 30 points during 40 visits to Valladolid, Spain. At each point, we carried out counts of sparrows and measured the mean electric field strength (radiofrequencies and microwaves: 1 MHz-3 GHz range). Significant declines (P = 0.0037) were observed in the mean bird density over time, and significantly low bird density was observed in areas with high electric field strength. The logarithmic regression of the mean bird density vs. field strength groups (considering field strength in 0.1 V/m increments) was R = -0.87 (P = 0.0001). The results of this article support the hypothesis that electromagnetic signals are associated with the observed decline in the sparrow population. We conclude that electromagnetic pollution may be responsible, either by itself or in combination with other factors, for the observed decline of the species in European cities during recent years. The appearently strong dependence between bird density and field strength according to this work could be used for a more controlled study to test the hypothesis.

The Dilemma of Decline.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abramowitz, Susan

This paper, one of two related documents, examines the impact of declining enrollments on educational expenditures. It highlights population and social changes that have contributed to the decline and discusses the general financing of schools. Finally, the paper discusses strategies state policymakers can use to manage decline, including…

Impact of climate changes on population vital activities in Russia in the early 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zolotokrylin, A. N.; Vinogradova, V. V.; Titkova, T. B.; Cherenkova, E. A.; Bokuchava, D. D.; Sokolov, I. A.; Vinogradov, A. V.; Babina, E. D.

2018-01-01

The study substantiates the approach to the assessment of impact of climate change on vital activities of population in Russia in the face of increasing climate extremes. The obtained results reveal the occurrence of the essential climate extreme events over the period 1991-2013 in Russia that are vital for population activities. Annual amounts of interdiurnal temperature differences and pressure were calculated. Propagation of heat and cold waves, trends and frequencies of daily precipitation extremes were evaluated. The map “Zoning the territory of the Russian Federation by natural living conditions of the population” adapted for modern climate (2001-2010), illustrates the climate changes in the early 21st century. The modern warming of climate has led to a significant easing of discomfort in the territory of Russia. The steady decline of the absolutely unfavorable zone resulted from the expansion of less unfavorable areas is observed, especially in the Northern and Arctic regions. In the south the boundary of unfavorable territories shifts toward the north. It results in the expansion of the conditionally unfavorable area in West Siberia and in the south of East Siberia. In European Russia the favorable area expands and shifts far to the northern regions.

Active population growth and immigration hypotheses in Western Europe.

PubMed

Feld, S

2000-03-01

The paper examines, in respect of 12 Western European countries over a period of 20 years, the widely held view that any decline in their working population should be offset by greater reliance on immigrant labor. This research, based on demographic projections and forecasts regarding labor market participation rates by age and sex for each of the countries concerned, focuses on the two most likely scenarios. It appears that only Italy will be faced with a fall in its working population. All other western countries will either maintain the same level or, more generally, see their workforce grow substantially. Accordingly, the authors may safely assert that there is no risk of a shortage of workers between now and the year 2020, and that an increasing supply of labor will render reliance on a greater influx of immigrant workers unnecessary. The second part analyses changes in the structure of the demand for labor. The authors deal chiefly with the phenomenon of the concentration of foreign manpower in each sector, its flexibility and mobility in a context of unemployment, as well as the impact of new technologies and globalization on the main determinants of international migration of labor.

Estimating latent time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction in continuous time from capture-recapture data

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ergon, T.; Yoccoz, N.G.; Nichols, J.D.; Thomson, David L.; Cooch, Evan G.; Conroy, Michael J.

2009-01-01

In many species, age or time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction may vary substantially within and among populations. We present a capture-mark-recapture model to estimate the latent individual trait distribution of time of maturation (or other irreversible transitions) as well as survival differences associated with the two states (representing costs of reproduction). Maturation can take place at any point in continuous time, and mortality hazard rates for each reproductive state may vary according to continuous functions over time. Although we explicitly model individual heterogeneity in age/time of maturation, we make the simplifying assumption that death hazard rates do not vary among individuals within groups of animals. However, the estimates of the maturation distribution are fairly robust against individual heterogeneity in survival as long as there is no individual level correlation between mortality hazards and latent time of maturation. We apply the model to biweekly capture?recapture data of overwintering field voles (Microtus agrestis) in cyclically fluctuating populations to estimate time of maturation and survival costs of reproduction. Results show that onset of seasonal reproduction is particularly late and survival costs of reproduction are particularly large in declining populations.

Epidemiological, evolutionary and co-evolutionary implications of context-dependent parasitism

PubMed Central

Vale, Pedro F.; Wilson, Alastair J.; Best, Alex; Boots, Mike; Little, Tom J.

2013-01-01

Victims of infection are expected to suffer increasingly as parasite population growth increases. Yet, under some conditions, faster growing parasites do not appear to cause more damage and infections can be quite tolerable. We studied these conditions by assessing how the relationship between parasite population growth and host health is sensitive to environmental variation. In experimental infections of the crustacean Daphnia magna and its bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa we show how easily an interaction can shift from a severe interaction, i.e. when host fitness declines substantially with each unit of parasite growth, to a tolerable relationship by changing only simple environmental variables: temperature and food availability. We explored the evolutionary and epidemiological implications of such a shift by modelling pathogen evolution and disease spread under different levels of infection severity, and find that environmental shifts that promote tolerance ultimately result in populations harbouring more parasitized individuals. We also find that the opportunity for selection, as indicated by the variance around traits, varied considerably with the environmental treatment. Thus our results suggest two mechanisms that could underlie co-evolutionary hot- and coldspots: spatial variation in tolerance and spatial variation in the opportunity for selection. PMID:21460572

Epidemiological, evolutionary, and coevolutionary implications of context-dependent parasitism.

PubMed

Vale, Pedro F; Wilson, Alastair J; Best, Alex; Boots, Mike; Little, Tom J

2011-04-01

Abstract Victims of infection are expected to suffer increasingly as parasite population growth increases. Yet, under some conditions, faster-growing parasites do not appear to cause more damage, and infections can be quite tolerable. We studied these conditions by assessing how the relationship between parasite population growth and host health is sensitive to environmental variation. In experimental infections of the crustacean Daphnia magna and its bacterial parasite Pasteuria ramosa, we show how easily an interaction can shift from a severe interaction, that is, when host fitness declines substantially with each unit of parasite growth, to a tolerable relationship by changing only simple environmental variables: temperature and food availability. We explored the evolutionary and epidemiological implications of such a shift by modeling pathogen evolution and disease spread under different levels of infection severity and found that environmental shifts that promote tolerance ultimately result in populations harboring more parasitized individuals. We also find that the opportunity for selection, as indicated by the variance around traits, varied considerably with the environmental treatment. Thus, our results suggest two mechanisms that could underlie coevolutionary hotspots and coldspots: spatial variation in tolerance and spatial variation in the opportunity for selection.

Decline in Cancer Screening in Vulnerable Populations? Results of the EDIFICE Surveys.

PubMed

Morère, Jean-François; Eisinger, François; Touboul, Chantal; Lhomel, Christine; Couraud, Sébastien; Viguier, Jérôme

2018-03-05

We studied cancer screening over time and social vulnerability via surveys of representative populations. Individuals aged 50-75 years with no personal history of cancer were questioned about lifetime participation in screening tests, compliance (adherence to recommended intervals [colorectal, breast and cervical cancer]) and opportunistic screening (prostate and lung cancer). The proportion of vulnerable/non-vulnerable individuals remained stable between 2011 and 2016. In 2011, social vulnerability had no impact on screening participation, nor on compliance. In 2014, however, vulnerability was correlated with less frequent uptake of colorectal screening (despite an organised programme) and prostate cancer screening (opportunistic), and also with reduced compliance with recommended intervals (breast and cervical cancer screening). In 2016, the trends observed in 2014 were substantiated and even extended to breast, colorectal and cervical cancer screening uptakes. Social vulnerability has an increasingly negative impact on cancer screening attendance. The phenomenon was identified in 2014 and had expanded by 2016. Although organised programmes have been shown to ensure equitable access to cancer screening, this remains a precarious achievement requiring regular monitoring. Further studies should focus on attitudes of vulnerable populations and on ways to improve cancer awareness campaigns.

Direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibian populations

USGS Publications Warehouse

Blaustein, Andrew R.; Walls, Susan C.; Bancroft, Betsy A.; Lawler, Joshua J.; Searle, Catherine L.; Gervasi, Stephanie S.

2010-01-01

As part of an overall decline in biodiversity, populations of many organisms are declining and species are being lost at unprecedented rates around the world. This includes many populations and species of amphibians. Although numerous factors are affecting amphibian populations, we show potential direct and indirect effects of climate change on amphibians at the individual, population and community level. Shifts in amphibian ranges are predicted. Changes in climate may affect survival, growth, reproduction and dispersal capabilities. Moreover, climate change can alter amphibian habitats including vegetation, soil, and hydrology. Climate change can influence food availability, predator-prey relationships and competitive interactions which can alter community structure. Climate change can also alter pathogen-host dynamics and greatly influence how diseases are manifested. Changes in climate can interact with other stressors such as UV-B radiation and contaminants. The interactions among all these factors are complex and are probably driving some amphibian population declines and extinctions.

Genomic sweep and potential genetic rescue during limiting environmental conditions in an isolated wolf population

PubMed Central

Adams, Jennifer R.; Vucetich, Leah M.; Hedrick, Philip W.; Peterson, Rolf O.; Vucetich, John A.

2011-01-01

Genetic rescue, in which the introduction of one or more unrelated individuals into an inbred population results in the reduction of detrimental genetic effects and an increase in one or more vital rates, is a potentially important management tool for mitigating adverse effects of inbreeding. We used molecular techniques to document the consequences of a male wolf (Canis lupus) that immigrated, on its own, across Lake Superior ice to the small, inbred wolf population in Isle Royale National Park. The immigrant's fitness so exceeded that of native wolves that within 2.5 generations, he was related to every individual in the population and his ancestry constituted 56 per cent of the population, resulting in a selective sweep of the total genome. In other words, all the male ancestry (50% of the total ancestry) descended from this immigrant, plus 6 per cent owing to the success of some of his inbred offspring. The immigration event occurred in an environment where space was limiting (i.e. packs occupied all available territories) and during a time when environmental conditions had deteriorated (i.e. wolves' prey declined). These conditions probably explain why the immigration event did not obviously improve the population's demography (e.g. increased population numbers or growth rate). Our results show that the beneficial effects of gene flow may be substantial and quickly manifest, short-lived under some circumstances, and how the demographic benefits of genetic rescue might be masked by environmental conditions. PMID:21450731

Pesticides and Population Declines of California Alpine Frogs

EPA Science Inventory

Airborne pesticides from the Central Valley of California have been implicated as a cause for population declines of several amphibian species, with the strongest evidence for the mountain yellow-legged frog complex (Rana muscosa and R. sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada. We measured ...

ALIEN SPECIES: THEIR ROLE IN AMPHIBIAN POPULATION DECLINES AND RESTORATION

EPA Science Inventory

Alien species (also referred to as exotic, invasive, introduced, or normative species) have been implicated as causal agents in population declines of many amphibian species. Herein, we evaluate the relative contributions of alien species and other factors in adversely affecting ...

Agrarian Visions.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Theobald, Paul

A new feature in "Country Teacher,""Agrarian Visions" reminds rural teachers that they can do something about rural decline. Like to populism of the 1890s, the "new populism" advocates rural living. Current attempts to address rural decline are contrary to agrarianism because: (1) telecommunications experts seek to…

Comments on Brodie and Post: Climate-driven declines in wolverine populations: Causal connection or spurious correlation?

Treesearch

Kevin S. McKelvey; Eric C. Lofroth; Jeffrey P. Copeland; Keith B. Aubry; Audrey J. Magoun

2010-01-01

The recent paper by Brodie and Post ("Nonlinear responses of wolverine populations to declining winter snowpack", Popul Ecol 52:279-287, 2010) reports conclusions that are unsupportable, in our opinion, due to both mis-interpretations of current knowledge regarding the wolverine's (Gulo gulo) association with snow, and the uncritical use of harvest data...

Modeling Louisiana pine snake (Pituophis ruthveni) habitat use in relation to soils

Treesearch

Robert O. Wagner; Josh B. Pierce; D. Craig Rudolph; Richard R. Schaefer; Dwayne A. Hightower

2014-01-01

Ongoing surveys suggest that Pituophis ruthveni (Louisiana Pine Snake) has declined range-wide and that known extant populations have continued to decline. Seven known populations remain and occupy small, isolated blocks of habitat. Population sizes are unknown, but all of them are believed to be critically small. Management for the species’ recovery requires an...

Decline of the Black Tern (Chlidonias niger) population in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, 2001-2010

Treesearch

Jaime L. Stephens; Sarah M. Rockwell; C. John Ralph; John D Alexander

2015-01-01

We monitored the Black Tern (Childonias niger) population at Agency and Upper Klamath Lakes, in the Klamath Basin, Oregon, from 2001–2010. We estimated that the population of adult Black Terns declined at these 2 joined waterbodies by 8.4% annually. In contrast, our analysis of Breeding Bird Survey data for the Bird...

The effects of predator exclusion and food supplementation on Burrowing Owl (Speotyto cunicularia) population change in Saskatchewan

Treesearch

Troy I. Wellicome; Geoffrey L. Holroyd; Karyn Scalise; Earl R. Wiltse

1997-01-01

If low reproductive output plays an important role in the population decline of the Burrowing Owl (Speotyto cunicularia,) in Canada, we predicted the decline would slow or stop in our study population after consecutive years of productivity enhancement via food supplementation and predator exclusion. In the portion of our study site for which...