Wind farms production: Control and prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

El-Fouly, Tarek Hussein Mostafa

Wind energy resources, unlike dispatchable central station generation, produce power dependable on external irregular source and that is the incident wind speed which does not always blow when electricity is needed. This results in the variability, unpredictability, and uncertainty of wind resources. Therefore, the integration of wind facilities to utility electrical grid presents a major challenge to power system operator. Such integration has significant impact on the optimum power flow, transmission congestion, power quality issues, system stability, load dispatch, and economic analysis. Due to the irregular nature of wind power production, accurate prediction represents the major challenge to power system operators. Therefore, in this thesis two novel models are proposed for wind speed and wind power prediction. One proposed model is dedicated to short-term prediction (one-hour ahead) and the other involves medium term prediction (one-day ahead). The accuracy of the proposed models is revealed by comparing their results with the corresponding values of a reference prediction model referred to as the persistent model. Utility grid operation is not only impacted by the uncertainty of the future production of wind farms, but also by the variability of their current production and how the active and reactive power exchange with the grid is controlled. To address this particular task, a control technique for wind turbines, driven by doubly-fed induction generators (DFIGs), is developed to regulate the terminal voltage by equally sharing the generated/absorbed reactive power between the rotor-side and the gridside converters. To highlight the impact of the new developed technique in reducing the power loss in the generator set, an economic analysis is carried out. Moreover, a new aggregated model for wind farms is proposed that accounts for the irregularity of the incident wind distribution throughout the farm layout. Specifically, this model includes the wake effect and the time delay of the incident wind speed of the different turbines on the farm, and to simulate the fluctuation in the generated power more accurately and more closer to real-time operation. Recently, wind farms with considerable output power ratings have been installed. Their integrating into the utility grid will substantially affect the electricity markets. This thesis investigates the possible impact of wind power variability, wind farm control strategy, wind energy penetration level, wind farm location, and wind power prediction accuracy on the total generation costs and close to real time electricity market prices. These issues are addressed by developing a single auction market model for determining the real-time electricity market prices.

Recommended OSC design and analysis of AMTEC power system for outer-planet missions

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Schock, A.; Noravian, H.; Or, C.

1999-01-01

The paper describes OSC designs and analyses of AMTEC cells and radioisotope power systems for possible application to NASA{close_quote}s Europa Orbiter and Pluto Kuiper Express missions, and compares their predicted performance with JPL{close_quote}s preliminary mission goals. The latest cell and generator designs presented here were the culmination of studies covering a wide variety of generator configurations and operating parameters. The many steps and rationale leading to OSC{close_quote}s design evolution and materials selection were discussed in earlier publications and will not be repeated here except for a description of OSC{close_quote}s latest design, including a recent heat source support scheme and cellmore » configuration that have not been described in previous publications. As shown, that heat source support scheme eliminates all contact between the heat source and the AMTEC (Alkali Metal Thermal-to-Electrical Conversion) cells, which simplifies the generator{close_quote}s structural design as well as its fabrication and assembly procedure. An additional purpose of the paper is to describe a revised cell design and fabrication procedure which represent a major departure from previous OSC designs. Previous cells had a uniform diameter, but in the revised design the cell wall beyond the BASE tubes has a greatly reduced diameter. The paper presents analytical performance predictions which show that the revised ({open_quotes}chimney{close_quotes}) cell design yields substantially higher efficiencies than the previous (cylindrical) design. This makes it possible to meet and substantially exceed the JPL-stipulated EOM power goal with four instead of six General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules, resulting in a one-third reduction in the heat source mass, cost, and fuel requirements. OSC{close_quote}s performance predictions were based on its techniques for the coupled thermal, electrical, and fluid flow analyses of AMTEC generators. Those analytical techniques have been partially validated by tests of prototypic test assemblies designed by OSC, built by AMPS, and tested by AFRL. The analytical results indicate that the OSC power system design, operating within the stipulated evaporator and clad temperature limits and well within its mass goals, can yield EOM power outputs and system efficiencies that substantially exceed the JPL-specified goals for the Europa and Pluto missions. However, those results only account for radioisotope decay. Other degradation mechanisms are still under study, and their short-and long-term effects must be quantified and understood before final conclusions about the adequacy and competitiveness of the AMTEC system can be drawn. {copyright} {ital 1999 American Institute of Physics.}« less

Analysis of significant factors for dengue fever incidence prediction.

PubMed

Siriyasatien, Padet; Phumee, Atchara; Ongruk, Phatsavee; Jampachaisri, Katechan; Kesorn, Kraisak

2016-04-16

Many popular dengue forecasting techniques have been used by several researchers to extrapolate dengue incidence rates, including the K-H model, support vector machines (SVM), and artificial neural networks (ANN). The time series analysis methodology, particularly ARIMA and SARIMA, has been increasingly applied to the field of epidemiological research for dengue fever, dengue hemorrhagic fever, and other infectious diseases. The main drawback of these methods is that they do not consider other variables that are associated with the dependent variable. Additionally, new factors correlated to the disease are needed to enhance the prediction accuracy of the model when it is applied to areas of similar climates, where weather factors such as temperature, total rainfall, and humidity are not substantially different. Such drawbacks may consequently lower the predictive power for the outbreak. The predictive power of the forecasting model-assessed by Akaike's information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)-is improved by including the new parameters for dengue outbreak prediction. This study's selected model outperforms all three other competing models with the lowest AIC, the lowest BIC, and a small MAPE value. The exclusive use of climate factors from similar locations decreases a model's prediction power. The multivariate Poisson regression, however, effectively forecasts even when climate variables are slightly different. Female mosquitoes and seasons were strongly correlated with dengue cases. Therefore, the dengue incidence trends provided by this model will assist the optimization of dengue prevention. The present work demonstrates the important roles of female mosquito infection rates from the previous season and climate factors (represented as seasons) in dengue outbreaks. Incorporating these two factors in the model significantly improves the predictive power of dengue hemorrhagic fever forecasting models, as confirmed by AIC, BIC, and MAPE.

Posture and activity recognition and energy expenditure prediction in a wearable platform.

PubMed

Sazonova, Nadezhda; Browning, Raymond; Melanson, Edward; Sazonov, Edward

2014-01-01

The use of wearable sensors coupled with the processing power of mobile phones may be an attractive way to provide real-time feedback about physical activity and energy expenditure (EE). Here we describe use of a shoe-based wearable sensor system (SmartShoe) with a mobile phone for real-time prediction and display of time spent in various postures/physical activities and the resulting EE. To deal with processing power and memory limitations of the phone, we introduce new algorithms that require substantially less computational power. The algorithms were validated using data from 15 subjects who performed up to 15 different activities of daily living during a four-hour stay in a room calorimeter. Use of Multinomial Logistic Discrimination (MLD) for posture and activity classification resulted in an accuracy comparable to that of Support Vector Machines (SVM) (90% vs. 95%-98%) while reducing the running time by a factor of 190 and reducing the memory requirement by a factor of 104. Per minute EE estimation using activity-specific models resulted in an accurate EE prediction (RMSE of 0.53 METs vs. RMSE of 0.69 METs using previously reported SVM-branched models). These results demonstrate successful implementation of real-time physical activity monitoring and EE prediction system on a wearable platform.

FireProt: Energy- and Evolution-Based Computational Design of Thermostable Multiple-Point Mutants.

PubMed

Bednar, David; Beerens, Koen; Sebestova, Eva; Bendl, Jaroslav; Khare, Sagar; Chaloupkova, Radka; Prokop, Zbynek; Brezovsky, Jan; Baker, David; Damborsky, Jiri

2015-11-01

There is great interest in increasing proteins' stability to enhance their utility as biocatalysts, therapeutics, diagnostics and nanomaterials. Directed evolution is a powerful, but experimentally strenuous approach. Computational methods offer attractive alternatives. However, due to the limited reliability of predictions and potentially antagonistic effects of substitutions, only single-point mutations are usually predicted in silico, experimentally verified and then recombined in multiple-point mutants. Thus, substantial screening is still required. Here we present FireProt, a robust computational strategy for predicting highly stable multiple-point mutants that combines energy- and evolution-based approaches with smart filtering to identify additive stabilizing mutations. FireProt's reliability and applicability was demonstrated by validating its predictions against 656 mutations from the ProTherm database. We demonstrate that thermostability of the model enzymes haloalkane dehalogenase DhaA and γ-hexachlorocyclohexane dehydrochlorinase LinA can be substantially increased (ΔTm = 24°C and 21°C) by constructing and characterizing only a handful of multiple-point mutants. FireProt can be applied to any protein for which a tertiary structure and homologous sequences are available, and will facilitate the rapid development of robust proteins for biomedical and biotechnological applications.

Enhanced outage prediction modeling for strong extratropical storms and hurricanes in the Northeastern United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cerrai, D.; Anagnostou, E. N.; Wanik, D. W.; Bhuiyan, M. A. E.; Zhang, X.; Yang, J.; Astitha, M.; Frediani, M. E.; Schwartz, C. S.; Pardakhti, M.

2016-12-01

The overwhelming majority of human activities need reliable electric power. Severe weather events can cause power outages, resulting in substantial economic losses and a temporary worsening of living conditions. Accurate prediction of these events and the communication of forecasted impacts to the affected utilities is necessary for efficient emergency preparedness and mitigation. The University of Connecticut Outage Prediction Model (OPM) uses regression tree models, high-resolution weather reanalysis and real-time weather forecasts (WRF and NCAR ensemble), airport station data, vegetation and electric grid characteristics and historical outage data to forecast the number and spatial distribution of outages in the power distribution grid located within dense vegetation. Recent OPM improvements consist of improved storm classification and addition of new predictive weather-related variables and are demonstrated using a leave-one-storm-out cross-validation based on 130 severe extratropical storms and two hurricanes (Sandy and Irene) in the Northeast US. We show that it is possible to predict the number of trouble spots causing outages in the electric grid with a median absolute percentage error as low as 27% for some storm types, and at most around 40%, in a scale that varies between four orders of magnitude, from few outages to tens of thousands. This outage information can be communicated to the electric utility to manage allocation of crews and equipment and minimize the recovery time for an upcoming storm hazard.

A framework for qualitative reasoning about solid objects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Davis, E.

1987-01-01

Predicting the behavior of a qualitatively described system of solid objects requires a combination of geometrical, temporal, and physical reasoning. Methods based upon formulating and solving differential equations are not adequate for robust prediction, since the behavior of a system over extended time may be much simpler than its behavior over local time. A first-order logic, in which one can state simple physical problems and derive their solution deductively, without recourse to solving the differential equations, is discussed. This logic is substantially more expressive and powerful than any previous AI representational system in this domain.

Predictive aging results in radiation environments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gillen, Kenneth T.; Clough, Roger L.

1993-06-01

We have previously derived a time-temperature-dose rate superposition methodology, which, when applicable, can be used to predict polymer degradation versus dose rate, temperature and exposure time. This methodology results in predictive capabilities at the low dose rates and long time periods appropriate, for instance, to ambient nuclear power plant environments. The methodology was successfully applied to several polymeric cable materials and then verified for two of the materials by comparisons of the model predictions with 12 year, low-dose-rate aging data on these materials from a nuclear environment. In this paper, we provide a more detailed discussion of the methodology and apply it to data obtained on a number of additional nuclear power plant cable insulation (a hypalon, a silicone rubber and two ethylene-tetrafluoroethylenes) and jacket (a hypalon) materials. We then show that the predicted, low-dose-rate results for our materials are in excellent agreement with long-term (7-9 year) low-dose-rate results recently obtained for the same material types actually aged under bnuclear power plant conditions. Based on a combination of the modelling and long-term results, we find indications of reasonably similar degradation responses among several different commercial formulations for each of the following "generic" materials: hypalon, ethylene-tetrafluoroethylene, silicone rubber and PVC. If such "generic" behavior can be further substantiated through modelling and long-term results on additional formulations, predictions of cable life for other commercial materials of the same generic types would be greatly facilitated.

Alternate high capacity heat pipe

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Voss, F. E.

1986-01-01

The performance predictions for a fifty foot heat pipe (4 foot evaporator - 46 foot condensor) are discussed. These performance predictions are supported by experimental data for a four foot heat pipe. Both heat pipes have evaporators with axial groove wick structures and condensers with powder metal external artery wick structures. The predicted performance of a rectangular axial groove/external artery heat pipe operating in space is given. Heat transport versus groove width is plotted for 100, 200 and 300 grooves in the evaporator. The curves show that maximum power is achieved for groove widths from 0.040 to 0.053 as the number of grooves varies from 300 to 100. The corresponding range of maximum power is 3150 to 2400 watts. The relationships between groove width and heat pipe evaporate diameter for 100, 200 and 300 grooves in the evaporator are given. A four foot heat pipe having a three foot condenser and one foot evaporator was built and tested. The evaporator wick structure used axial grooves with rectangular cross sections, and the condenser wick structure used powder metal with an external artery configuration. Fabrication drawings are enclosed. The predicted and measured performance for this heat pipe is shown. The agreement between predicted and measured performance is good and therefore substantiates the predicted performance for a fifty foot heat pipe.

Nonlinear damping for vibration isolation of microsystems using shear thickening fluid

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Iyer, S. S.; Vedad-Ghavami, R.; Lee, H.; Liger, M.; Kavehpour, H. P.; Candler, R. N.

2013-06-01

This work reports the measurement and analysis of nonlinear damping of micro-scale actuators immersed in shear thickening fluids (STFs). A power-law damping term is added to the linear second-order model to account for the shear-dependent viscosity of the fluid. This nonlinear model is substantiated by measurements of oscillatory motion of a torsional microactuator. At high actuation forces, the vibration velocity amplitude saturates. The model accurately predicts the nonlinear damping characteristics of the STF using a power-law index extracted from independent rheology experiments. This result reveals the potential to use STFs as adaptive, passive dampers for vibration isolation of microelectromechanical systems.

An Improved Computational Technique for Calculating Electromagnetic Forces and Power Absorptions Generated in Spherical and Deformed Body in Levitation Melting Devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Zong, Jin-Ho; Szekely, Julian; Schwartz, Elliot

1992-01-01

An improved computational technique for calculating the electromagnetic force field, the power absorption and the deformation of an electromagnetically levitated metal sample is described. The technique is based on the volume integral method, but represents a substantial refinement; the coordinate transformation employed allows the efficient treatment of a broad class of rotationally symmetrical bodies. Computed results are presented to represent the behavior of levitation melted metal samples in a multi-coil, multi-frequency levitation unit to be used in microgravity experiments. The theoretical predictions are compared with both analytical solutions and with the results or previous computational efforts for the spherical samples and the agreement has been very good. The treatment of problems involving deformed surfaces and actually predicting the deformed shape of the specimens breaks new ground and should be the major usefulness of the proposed method.

The gravitational wave contribution to cosmic microwave background anisotropies and the amplitude of mass fluctuations from COBE results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lucchin, Francesco; Matarrese, Sabino; Mollerach, Silvia

1992-01-01

A stochastic background of primordial gravitational waves may substantially contribute, via the Sachs-Wolfe effect, to the large-scale cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies recently detected by COBE. This implies a bias in any resulting determination of the primordial amplitude of density fluctuations. We consider the constraints imposed on n is less than 1 ('tilted') power-law fluctuation spectra, taking into account the contribution from both scalar and tensor waves, as predicted by power-law inflation. The gravitational wave contribution to CMB anisotropies generally reduces the required rms level of mass fluctuation, thereby increasing the linear bias parameter, even in models where the spectral index is close to the Harrison-Zel'dovich value n = 1. This 'gravitational wave bias' helps to reconcile the predictions of CDM models with observations on pairwise galaxy velocity dispersion on small scales.

Evolution of spent nuclear fuel in dry storage conditions for millennia and beyond

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wiss, Thierry; Hiernaut, Jean-Pol; Roudil, Danièle; Colle, Jean-Yves; Maugeri, Emilio; Talip, Zeynep; Janssen, Arne; Rondinella, Vincenzo; Konings, Rudy J. M.; Matzke, Hans-Joachim; Weber, William J.

2014-08-01

Significant amounts of spent uranium dioxide nuclear fuel are accumulating worldwide from decades of commercial nuclear power production. While such spent fuel is intended to be reprocessed or disposed in geologic repositories, out-of-reactor radiation damage from alpha decay can be detrimental to its structural stability. Here we report on an experimental study in which radiation damage in plutonium dioxide, uranium dioxide samples doped with short-lived alpha-emitters and urano-thorianite minerals have been characterized by XRD, transmission electron microscopy, thermal desorption spectrometry and hardness measurements to assess the long-term stability of spent nuclear fuel to substantial alpha-decay doses. Defect accumulation is predicted to result in swelling of the atomic structure and decrease in fracture toughness; whereas, the accumulation of helium will produce bubbles that result in much larger gaseous-induced swelling that substantially increases the stresses in the constrained spent fuel. Based on these results, the radiation-ageing of highly-aged spent nuclear fuel over more than 10,000 years is predicted.

Motion compensation via redundant-wavelet multihypothesis.

PubMed

Fowler, James E; Cui, Suxia; Wang, Yonghui

2006-10-01

Multihypothesis motion compensation has been widely used in video coding with previous attention focused on techniques employing predictions that are diverse spatially or temporally. In this paper, the multihypothesis concept is extended into the transform domain by using a redundant wavelet transform to produce multiple predictions that are diverse in transform phase. The corresponding multiple-phase inverse transform implicitly combines the phase-diverse predictions into a single spatial-domain prediction for motion compensation. The performance advantage of this redundant-wavelet-multihypothesis approach is investigated analytically, invoking the fact that the multiple-phase inverse involves a projection that significantly reduces the power of a dense-motion residual modeled as additive noise. The analysis shows that redundant-wavelet multihypothesis is capable of up to a 7-dB reduction in prediction-residual variance over an equivalent single-phase, single-hypothesis approach. Experimental results substantiate the performance advantage for a block-based implementation.

Correlating Resolving Power, Resolution, and Collision Cross Section: Unifying Cross-Platform Assessment of Separation Efficiency in Ion Mobility Spectrometry.

PubMed

Dodds, James N; May, Jody C; McLean, John A

2017-11-21

Here we examine the relationship among resolving power (R p ), resolution (R pp ), and collision cross section (CCS) for compounds analyzed in previous ion mobility (IM) experiments representing a wide variety of instrument platforms and IM techniques. Our previous work indicated these three variables effectively describe and predict separation efficiency for drift tube ion mobility spectrometry experiments. In this work, we seek to determine if our previous findings are a general reflection of IM behavior that can be applied to various instrument platforms and mobility techniques. Results suggest IM distributions are well characterized by a Gaussian model and separation efficiency can be predicted on the basis of the empirical difference in the gas-phase CCS and a CCS-based resolving power definition (CCS/ΔCCS). Notably traveling wave (TWIMS) was found to operate at resolutions substantially higher than a single-peak resolving power suggested. When a CCS-based R p definition was utilized, TWIMS was found to operate at a resolving power between 40 and 50, confirming the previous observations by Giles and co-workers. After the separation axis (and corresponding resolving power) is converted to cross section space, it is possible to effectively predict separation behavior for all mobility techniques evaluated (i.e., uniform field, trapped ion mobility, traveling wave, cyclic, and overtone instruments) using the equations described in this work. Finally, we are able to establish for the first time that the current state-of-the-art ion mobility separations benchmark at a CCS-based resolving power of >300 that is sufficient to differentiate analyte ions with CCS differences as small as 0.5%.

Electrostatic protection of the solar power satellite and rectenna. Part 1: Protection of the solar power satellite

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

Several features of the interactions of the Solar Power Satellite (SPS) with its space environment are examined theoretically. The voltages produced at various surfaces due to space plasmas and the plasma leakage currents through the kapton and sapphire solar cell blankets are calculated. At geosynchronous orbit, this parasitic power loss is only 0.7%, and is easily compensated by oversizing. At low Earth orbit, the power loss is potentially much larger (3%), and anomalous arcing is expected for the EOTV high voltage negative surfaces. Preliminary results of a three dimensional self consistent plasma and electric field computer program are presented, confirming the validity of the predictions made from the one dimensional models. Lastly, magnetic shielding of the satellite is considered to reduce the power drain and to protect the solar cells from energetic electron and plasma ion bombardment. It is concluded that minor modifications can allow the SPS to operate safely and efficiently in its space environment. Subsequent design changes will substantially alter the basic conclusions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Fang, Xiao; Blazek, Jonathan A.; McEwen, Joseph E.

Cosmological perturbation theory is a powerful tool to predict the statistics of large-scale structure in the weakly non-linear regime, but even at 1-loop order it results in computationally expensive mode-coupling integrals. Here we present a fast algorithm for computing 1-loop power spectra of quantities that depend on the observer's orientation, thereby generalizing the FAST-PT framework (McEwen et al., 2016) that was originally developed for scalars such as the matter density. This algorithm works for an arbitrary input power spectrum and substantially reduces the time required for numerical evaluation. We apply the algorithm to four examples: intrinsic alignments of galaxies inmore » the tidal torque model; the Ostriker-Vishniac effect; the secondary CMB polarization due to baryon flows; and the 1-loop matter power spectrum in redshift space. Code implementing this algorithm and these applications is publicly available at https://github.com/JoeMcEwen/FAST-PT.« less

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, Hyeokjin; Chen, Hua; Maksimovic, Dragan

An experimental 30 kW boost composite converter is described in this paper. The composite converter architecture, which consists of a buck module, a boost module, and a dual active bridge module that operates as a DC transformer (DCX), leads to substantial reductions in losses at partial power points, and to significant improvements in weighted efficiency in applications that require wide variations in power and conversion ratio. A comprehensive loss model is developed, accounting for semiconductor conduction and switching losses, capacitor losses, as well as dc and ac losses in magnetic components. Based on the developed loss model, the module andmore » system designs are optimized to maximize efficiency at a 50% power point. Experimental results for the 30 kW prototype demonstrate 98.5%peak efficiency, very high efficiency over wide ranges of power and voltage conversion ratios, as well as excellent agreements between model predictions and measured efficiency curves.« less

Classical Mathematical Models for Description and Prediction of Experimental Tumor Growth

PubMed Central

Benzekry, Sébastien; Lamont, Clare; Beheshti, Afshin; Tracz, Amanda; Ebos, John M. L.; Hlatky, Lynn; Hahnfeldt, Philip

2014-01-01

Despite internal complexity, tumor growth kinetics follow relatively simple laws that can be expressed as mathematical models. To explore this further, quantitative analysis of the most classical of these were performed. The models were assessed against data from two in vivo experimental systems: an ectopic syngeneic tumor (Lewis lung carcinoma) and an orthotopically xenografted human breast carcinoma. The goals were threefold: 1) to determine a statistical model for description of the measurement error, 2) to establish the descriptive power of each model, using several goodness-of-fit metrics and a study of parametric identifiability, and 3) to assess the models' ability to forecast future tumor growth. The models included in the study comprised the exponential, exponential-linear, power law, Gompertz, logistic, generalized logistic, von Bertalanffy and a model with dynamic carrying capacity. For the breast data, the dynamics were best captured by the Gompertz and exponential-linear models. The latter also exhibited the highest predictive power, with excellent prediction scores (≥80%) extending out as far as 12 days in the future. For the lung data, the Gompertz and power law models provided the most parsimonious and parametrically identifiable description. However, not one of the models was able to achieve a substantial prediction rate (≥70%) beyond the next day data point. In this context, adjunction of a priori information on the parameter distribution led to considerable improvement. For instance, forecast success rates went from 14.9% to 62.7% when using the power law model to predict the full future tumor growth curves, using just three data points. These results not only have important implications for biological theories of tumor growth and the use of mathematical modeling in preclinical anti-cancer drug investigations, but also may assist in defining how mathematical models could serve as potential prognostic tools in the clinic. PMID:25167199

Classical mathematical models for description and prediction of experimental tumor growth.

PubMed

Benzekry, Sébastien; Lamont, Clare; Beheshti, Afshin; Tracz, Amanda; Ebos, John M L; Hlatky, Lynn; Hahnfeldt, Philip

2014-08-01

Despite internal complexity, tumor growth kinetics follow relatively simple laws that can be expressed as mathematical models. To explore this further, quantitative analysis of the most classical of these were performed. The models were assessed against data from two in vivo experimental systems: an ectopic syngeneic tumor (Lewis lung carcinoma) and an orthotopically xenografted human breast carcinoma. The goals were threefold: 1) to determine a statistical model for description of the measurement error, 2) to establish the descriptive power of each model, using several goodness-of-fit metrics and a study of parametric identifiability, and 3) to assess the models' ability to forecast future tumor growth. The models included in the study comprised the exponential, exponential-linear, power law, Gompertz, logistic, generalized logistic, von Bertalanffy and a model with dynamic carrying capacity. For the breast data, the dynamics were best captured by the Gompertz and exponential-linear models. The latter also exhibited the highest predictive power, with excellent prediction scores (≥80%) extending out as far as 12 days in the future. For the lung data, the Gompertz and power law models provided the most parsimonious and parametrically identifiable description. However, not one of the models was able to achieve a substantial prediction rate (≥70%) beyond the next day data point. In this context, adjunction of a priori information on the parameter distribution led to considerable improvement. For instance, forecast success rates went from 14.9% to 62.7% when using the power law model to predict the full future tumor growth curves, using just three data points. These results not only have important implications for biological theories of tumor growth and the use of mathematical modeling in preclinical anti-cancer drug investigations, but also may assist in defining how mathematical models could serve as potential prognostic tools in the clinic.

Non-Nuclear Validation Test Results of a Closed Brayton Cycle Test-Loop

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wright, Steven A.

2007-01-01

Both NASA and DOE have programs that are investigating advanced power conversion cycles for planetary surface power on the moon or Mars, or for next generation nuclear power plants on earth. Although open Brayton cycles are in use for many applications (combined cycle power plants, aircraft engines), only a few closed Brayton cycles have been tested. Experience with closed Brayton cycles coupled to nuclear reactors is even more limited and current projections of Brayton cycle performance are based on analytic models. This report describes and compares experimental results with model predictions from a series of non-nuclear tests using a small scale closed loop Brayton cycle available at Sandia National Laboratories. A substantial amount of testing has been performed, and the information is being used to help validate models. In this report we summarize the results from three kinds of tests. These tests include: 1) test results that are useful for validating the characteristic flow curves of the turbomachinery for various gases ranging from ideal gases (Ar or Ar/He) to non-ideal gases such as CO2, 2) test results that represent shut down transients and decay heat removal capability of Brayton loops after reactor shut down, and 3) tests that map a range of operating power versus shaft speed curve and turbine inlet temperature that are useful for predicting stable operating conditions during both normal and off-normal operating behavior. These tests reveal significant interactions between the reactor and balance of plant. Specifically these results predict limited speed up behavior of the turbomachinery caused by loss of load, the conditions for stable operation, and for direct cooled reactors, the tests reveal that the coast down behavior during loss of power events can extend for hours provided the ultimate heat sink remains available.

Decoupling electron and ion storage and the path from interfacial storage to artificial electrodes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Chia-Chin; Maier, Joachim

2018-02-01

The requirements for rechargeable batteries place high demands on the electrodes. Efficient storage means accommodating both ions and electrons, not only in substantial amounts, but also with substantial velocities. The materials' space could be largely extended by decoupling the roles of ions and electrons such that transport and accommodation of ions take place in one phase of a composite, and transport and accommodation of electrons in the other phase. Here we discuss this synergistic concept being equally applicable for positive and negative electrodes along with examples from the literature for Li-based and Ag-based cells. Not only does the concept have the potential to mitigate the trade-off between power density and energy density, it also enables a generalized view of bulk and interfacial storage as necessary for nanocrystals. It furthermore allows for testable predictions of heterogeneous storage in passivation layers, dependence of transfer resistance on the state of charge, or heterogeneous storage of hydrogen at appropriate contacts. We also present an outlook on constructing artificial mixed-conductor electrodes that have the potential to achieve both high energy density and high power density.

Nitrogen oxides emissions from thermal power plants in china: current status and future predictions.

PubMed

Tian, Hezhong; Liu, Kaiyun; Hao, Jiming; Wang, Yan; Gao, Jiajia; Qiu, Peipei; Zhu, Chuanyong

2013-10-01

Increasing emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOx) over the Chinese mainland have been of great concern due to their adverse impacts on regional air quality and public health. To explore and obtain the temporal and spatial characteristics of NOx emissions from thermal power plants in China, a unit-based method is developed. The method assesses NOx emissions based on detailed information on unit capacity, boiler and burner patterns, feed fuel types, emission control technologies, and geographical locations. The national total NOx emissions in 2010 are estimated at 7801.6 kt, of which 5495.8 kt is released from coal-fired power plant units of considerable size between 300 and 1000 MW. The top provincial emitter is Shandong where plants are densely concentrated. The average NOx-intensity is estimated at 2.28 g/kWh, markedly higher than that of developed countries, mainly owing to the inadequate application of high-efficiency denitrification devices such as selective catalytic reduction (SCR). Future NOx emissions are predicted by applying scenario analysis, indicating that a reduction of about 40% by the year 2020 can be achieved compared with emissions in 2010. These results suggest that NOx emissions from Chinese thermal power plants could be substantially mitigated within 10 years if reasonable control measures were implemented effectively.

Playing off the curve - testing quantitative predictions of skill acquisition theories in development of chess performance.

PubMed

Gaschler, Robert; Progscha, Johanna; Smallbone, Kieran; Ram, Nilam; Bilalić, Merim

2014-01-01

Learning curves have been proposed as an adequate description of learning processes, no matter whether the processes manifest within minutes or across years. Different mechanisms underlying skill acquisition can lead to differences in the shape of learning curves. In the current study, we analyze the tournament performance data of 1383 chess players who begin competing at young age and play tournaments for at least 10 years. We analyze the performance development with the goal to test the adequacy of learning curves, and the skill acquisition theories they are based on, for describing and predicting expertise acquisition. On the one hand, we show that the skill acquisition theories implying a negative exponential learning curve do a better job in both describing early performance gains and predicting later trajectories of chess performance than those theories implying a power function learning curve. On the other hand, the learning curves of a large proportion of players show systematic qualitative deviations from the predictions of either type of skill acquisition theory. While skill acquisition theories predict larger performance gains in early years and smaller gains in later years, a substantial number of players begin to show substantial improvements with a delay of several years (and no improvement in the first years), deviations not fully accounted for by quantity of practice. The current work adds to the debate on how learning processes on a small time scale combine to large-scale changes.

High-frequency predictions for number counts and spectral properties of extragalactic radio sources. New evidence of a break at mm wavelengths in spectra of bright blazar sources

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tucci, M.; Toffolatti, L.; de Zotti, G.; Martínez-González, E.

2011-09-01

We present models to predict high-frequency counts of extragalactic radio sources using physically grounded recipes to describe the complex spectral behaviour of blazars that dominate the mm-wave counts at bright flux densities. We show that simple power-law spectra are ruled out by high-frequency (ν ≥ 100 GHz) data. These data also strongly constrain models featuring the spectral breaks predicted by classical physical models for the synchrotron emission produced in jets of blazars. A model dealing with blazars as a single population is, at best, only marginally consistent with data coming from current surveys at high radio frequencies. Our most successful model assumes different distributions of break frequencies, νM, for BL Lacs and flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs). The former objects have substantially higher values of νM, implying that the synchrotron emission comes from more compact regions; therefore, a substantial increase of the BL Lac fraction at high radio frequencies and at bright flux densities is predicted. Remarkably, our best model is able to give a very good fit to all the observed data on number counts and on distributions of spectral indices of extragalactic radio sources at frequencies above 5 and up to 220 GHz. Predictions for the forthcoming sub-mm blazar counts from Planck, at the highest HFI frequencies, and from Herschel surveys are also presented. Appendices are available in electronic form at http://www.aanda.org

Analysis of log-periodic power law singularity patterns in time series related to credit risk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wosnitza, Jan Henrik; Sornette, Didier

2015-04-01

The log-periodic (super-exponential) power law singularity (LPPLS) has become a promising tool for predicting extreme behavior of self-organizing systems in natural sciences and finance. Some researchers have recently proposed to employ the LPPLS on credit risk markets. The review article at hand summarizes four papers in this field and shows how they are linked. After structuring the research questions, we collect the corresponding answers from the four articles. This eventually gives us an overall picture of the application of the LPPLS to credit risk data. Our literature review begins with grounding the view that credit default swap (CDS) spreads are hotbeds for LPPLS patterns and it ends up with drawing attention to the recently proposed alarm index for the prediction of institutional bank runs. By presenting a new field of application for the LPPLS, the reviewed strand of literature further substantiates the LPPLS hypothesis. Moreover, the results suggest that CDS spread trajectories belong to a different universality class than, for instance, stock prices.

Memory testing in dementia: how much is enough?

PubMed

Derrer, D S; Howieson, D B; Mueller, E A; Camicioli, R M; Sexton, G; Kaye, J A

2001-01-01

Analyses of eight widely used memory measures (Word List Acquisition and Recall used in the Alzheimer's Disease Assessment Scale and the Consortium to Establish a Registry for Alzheimer's Disease neuropsychology battery, Wechsler Memory Scale-Revised [WMS-R] Logical Memory I and II, WMS-R Visual Reproduction I and II, the memory scores from the Neurobehavioral Cognitive Status Examination [NCSE], memory scores from the Mini-Mental State Examination [MMSE]), and the MMSE total score showed each to have moderate predictive power in differentiating between patients with mild dementia and healthy normal controls. When these instruments were combined in a logistic regression analysis, three of them had substantial predictive power. Together, the Word List Acquisition, WMS-R Logical Memory II, and WMS-R Visual Reproduction II were 97.26% accurate (100% sensitive and 94.59% specific) in distinguishing these two groups. The Word List Acquisition is a brief test that alone had high accuracy (92%). These memory tests are highly useful in the diagnosis of mild dementia.

Stream power framework for predicting geomorphic change: The 2013 Colorado Front Range flood

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yochum, Steven E.; Sholtes, Joel S.; Scott, Julian A.; Bledsoe, Brian P.

2017-09-01

The Colorado Front Range flood of September 2013 induced a diverse range of geomorphic changes along numerous stream corridors, providing an opportunity to assess responses to a large flood in a semiarid landscape. We defined six classes of geomorphic change related to peak unit stream power and valley confinement for 531 stream reaches over 226 km, spanning a gradient of channel scales and slope. Geomorphic change was generally driven by erosion of channel margins in confined reaches and by a combination of deposition and erosion in unconfined reaches. The magnitude of geomorphic change typically increased with unit stream power (ω), with greater responses observed in unconfined channels. Cumulative logit modeling indicated that total stream power or unit stream power, unit stream power gradient, and valley confinement are significant predictors of geomorphic response for this flood event. Based on this dataset, thresholds for geomorphic adjustment were defined. For channel slopes < 3%, we noted a credible potential for substantial channel widening with ω > 230 W/m2 (16 lb/ft-s; at least 10% of the investigated sites experienced substantial channel widening) and a credible potential for avulsions, braiding, and loss of adjacent road embankments associated with ω > 480 W/m2 (33 lb/ft-s; at least 10% of the investigated sites experienced such geomorphic change). Infrequent to numerous eroded banks were very likely with ω > 700 W/m2 (48 lb/ft-s), with substantial channel widening or major geomorphic change shifting from credible to likely. Importantly, in reaches where there were large reductions in ω as the valley form shifted from confined to relatively unconfined, large amounts of deposition-induced, reach-scale geomorphic change occurred in some locations at relatively low ω. Additionally, alluvial channels with slopes > 3% had greater resistance to geomorphic change, likely caused by armoring by larger bed material and increased flow resistance from enhanced bedforms. Finally, we describe how these results can potentially be used by practitioners for assessing the risk of geomorphic change when evaluating current or planned conditions.

Migrants, health, and happiness: Evidence that health assessments travel with migrants and predict well-being.

PubMed

Ljunge, Martin

2016-09-01

Health assessments correlate with health outcomes and subjective well-being. Immigrants offer an opportunity to study persistent social influences on health where the social conditions are not endogenous to individual outcomes. This approach provides a clear direction of causality from social conditions to health, and in a second stage to well-being. Natives and immigrants from across the world residing in 30 European countries are studied using survey data. The paper applies within country analysis using both linear regressions and two stage least squares. Natives' and immigrants' individual characteristics have similar predictive power for health, except Muslim immigrants who experience a sizeable health penalty. Average health reports in the immigrant's birth country have a significant association with the immigrant's current health. Almost a quarter of the birth country health variation is brought by the immigrants, while conditioning on socioeconomic characteristics. There is no evidence of the birth country predictive power declining neither as the immigrant spends more time in the residence country nor over the life course. The second stage estimates indicate that a one standard deviation improvement in health predicts higher happiness by 1.72 point or 0.82 of a standard deviation, more than four times the happiness difference of changing employment status from unemployed to employed. Studying life satisfaction yields similar results. Health improvements predict substantial increases in individual happiness. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The extension of total gain (TG) statistic in survival models: properties and applications.

PubMed

Choodari-Oskooei, Babak; Royston, Patrick; Parmar, Mahesh K B

2015-07-01

The results of multivariable regression models are usually summarized in the form of parameter estimates for the covariates, goodness-of-fit statistics, and the relevant p-values. These statistics do not inform us about whether covariate information will lead to any substantial improvement in prediction. Predictive ability measures can be used for this purpose since they provide important information about the practical significance of prognostic factors. R (2)-type indices are the most familiar forms of such measures in survival models, but they all have limitations and none is widely used. In this paper, we extend the total gain (TG) measure, proposed for a logistic regression model, to survival models and explore its properties using simulations and real data. TG is based on the binary regression quantile plot, otherwise known as the predictiveness curve. Standardised TG ranges from 0 (no explanatory power) to 1 ('perfect' explanatory power). The results of our simulations show that unlike many of the other R (2)-type predictive ability measures, TG is independent of random censoring. It increases as the effect of a covariate increases and can be applied to different types of survival models, including models with time-dependent covariate effects. We also apply TG to quantify the predictive ability of multivariable prognostic models developed in several disease areas. Overall, TG performs well in our simulation studies and can be recommended as a measure to quantify the predictive ability in survival models.

A predictive model for the tokamak density limit

DOE PAGES

Teng, Q.; Brennan, D. P.; Delgado-Aparicio, L.; ...

2016-07-28

We reproduce the Greenwald density limit, in all tokamak experiments by using a phenomenologically correct model with parameters in the range of experiments. A simple model of equilibrium evolution and local power balance inside the island has been implemented to calculate the radiation-driven thermo-resistive tearing mode growth and explain the density limit. Strong destabilization of the tearing mode due to an imbalance of local Ohmic heating and radiative cooling in the island predicts the density limit within a few percent. Furthermore, we found the density limit and it is a local edge limit and weakly dependent on impurity densities. Ourmore » results are robust to a substantial variation in model parameters within the range of experiments.« less

Numerical investigation of differential phase noise and its power penalty for optical amplification using semiconductor optical amplifiers in DPSK applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Wei; Huang, Dexiu; Zhang, Xinliang; Zhu, Guangxi

2007-11-01

A thorough simulation and evaluation of phase noise for optical amplification using semiconductor optical amplifier (SOA) is very important for predicting its performance in differential phase shift keyed (DPSK) applications. In this paper, standard deviation and probability distribution of differential phase noise are obtained from the statistics of simulated differential phase noise. By using a full-wave model of SOA, the noise performance in the entire operation range can be investigated. It is shown that nonlinear phase noise substantially contributes to the total phase noise in case of a noisy signal amplified by a saturated SOA and the nonlinear contribution is larger with shorter SOA carrier lifetime. Power penalty due to differential phase noise is evaluated using a semi-analytical probability density function (PDF) of receiver noise. Obvious increase of power penalty at high signal input powers can be found for low input OSNR, which is due to both the large nonlinear differential phase noise and the dependence of BER vs. receiving power curvature on differential phase noise standard deviation.

Kantian fractionalization predicts the conflict propensity of the international system.

PubMed

Cranmer, Skyler J; Menninga, Elizabeth J; Mucha, Peter J

2015-09-22

Network science has spurred a reexamination of relational phenomena in political science, including the study of international conflict. We introduce a new direction to the study of conflict by showing that the multiplex fractionalization of the international system along three key dimensions is a powerful predictor of the propensity for violent interstate conflict. Even after controlling for well-established conflict indicators, our new measure contributes more to model fit for interstate conflict than all of the previously established measures combined. Moreover, joint democracy plays little, if any, role in predicting system stability, thus challenging perhaps the major empirical finding of the international relations literature. Lastly, the temporal variability of our measure with conflict is consistent with a causal relationship. Our results have real-world policy implications as changes in our fractionalization measure substantially aid the prediction of conflict up to 10 years into the future, allowing it to serve as an early warning sign of international instability.

COMSAC: Computational Methods for Stability and Control. Part 2

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Fremaux, C. Michael (Compiler); Hall, Robert M. (Compiler)

2004-01-01

The unprecedented advances being made in computational fluid dynamic (CFD) technology have demonstrated the powerful capabilities of codes in applications to civil and military aircraft. Used in conjunction with wind-tunnel and flight investigations, many codes are now routinely used by designers in diverse applications such as aerodynamic performance predictions and propulsion integration. Typically, these codes are most reliable for attached, steady, and predominantly turbulent flows. As a result of increasing reliability and confidence in CFD, wind-tunnel testing for some new configurations has been substantially reduced in key areas, such as wing trade studies for mission performance guarantees. Interest is now growing in the application of computational methods to other critical design challenges. One of the most important disciplinary elements for civil and military aircraft is prediction of stability and control characteristics. CFD offers the potential for significantly increasing the basic understanding, prediction, and control of flow phenomena associated with requirements for satisfactory aircraft handling characteristics.

Fast, scalable prediction of deleterious noncoding variants from functional and population genomic data.

PubMed

Huang, Yi-Fei; Gulko, Brad; Siepel, Adam

2017-04-01

Many genetic variants that influence phenotypes of interest are located outside of protein-coding genes, yet existing methods for identifying such variants have poor predictive power. Here we introduce a new computational method, called LINSIGHT, that substantially improves the prediction of noncoding nucleotide sites at which mutations are likely to have deleterious fitness consequences, and which, therefore, are likely to be phenotypically important. LINSIGHT combines a generalized linear model for functional genomic data with a probabilistic model of molecular evolution. The method is fast and highly scalable, enabling it to exploit the 'big data' available in modern genomics. We show that LINSIGHT outperforms the best available methods in identifying human noncoding variants associated with inherited diseases. In addition, we apply LINSIGHT to an atlas of human enhancers and show that the fitness consequences at enhancers depend on cell type, tissue specificity, and constraints at associated promoters.

A Task-Optimized Neural Network Replicates Human Auditory Behavior, Predicts Brain Responses, and Reveals a Cortical Processing Hierarchy.

PubMed

Kell, Alexander J E; Yamins, Daniel L K; Shook, Erica N; Norman-Haignere, Sam V; McDermott, Josh H

2018-05-02

A core goal of auditory neuroscience is to build quantitative models that predict cortical responses to natural sounds. Reasoning that a complete model of auditory cortex must solve ecologically relevant tasks, we optimized hierarchical neural networks for speech and music recognition. The best-performing network contained separate music and speech pathways following early shared processing, potentially replicating human cortical organization. The network performed both tasks as well as humans and exhibited human-like errors despite not being optimized to do so, suggesting common constraints on network and human performance. The network predicted fMRI voxel responses substantially better than traditional spectrotemporal filter models throughout auditory cortex. It also provided a quantitative signature of cortical representational hierarchy-primary and non-primary responses were best predicted by intermediate and late network layers, respectively. The results suggest that task optimization provides a powerful set of tools for modeling sensory systems. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Annual Report to the Bonneville Power Administration, Reporting Period: April 2008 - February 2009 [re: "Survival and Growth in the Columbia River Plume and north California Current"].

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries; Cooperative Institute for Marine Resources Studies, Oregon State University; OGI School of Science & Engineering, Oregon Health Sciences University.

2009-07-17

We have made substantial progress toward our objectives outlined in our BPA supported proposal entitled 'Columbia River Basin Juvenile Salmonids: Survival and Growth in the Columbia River Plume and northern California Current' which we report on herein. During 2008, we were able to successfully conduct 3 mesoscale cruises. We also were able to conduct 7 biweekly predator cruises, along with substantial shore-based visual observations of seabirds. Detailed results of the mesoscale cruises are available in the Cruise Reports and summarized in the next section. We have taken a proactive approach to getting the results of our research to fisheries managersmore » and the general public. We have begun to make annual predictions based on ocean conditions of the relative survival of juvenile coho and Chinook salmon well before they return as adults. This is based on both biological and physical indicators that we measure during our surveys or collect from outside data sources. Examples of our predictions for 2009 and 2010 are available on the following web site: http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/research/divisions/fed/oeip/a-ecinhome.cfm.« less

Effects of global atmospheric perturbations on forest ecosystems: Predictions of seasonal and cumulative effects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Tinus, R. W.; Roddy, D. J.

1988-01-01

The physical effects of certain large events, such as giant impacts, explosive volcanism, or combined nuclear explosions, have the potential of inducing global catastrophes in our terrestrial environment. Such highly energetic events can inject substantial quantities of material into the atmosphere. In turn, this changes the amount of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface and modifies atmospheric temperatures to produce a wide range of global effects. One consequence is the introduction of serious stresses in both plants and animals throughout the Earth's biosphere. For example, recent studies predict that forest lands, crop lands, and range lands would suffer specific physical and biological degradations if major physical and chemical disruptions occurred in our atmosphere. Forests, which cover over 4 times 10 to the 9th power hectares (4 times 10 to the 7th power sq km) of our planet, or about 3 times the area now cultivated for crops, are critical to many processes in the biosphere. Forests contribute heavily to the production of atmospheric oxygen, supply the major volume of biomass, and provide a significant percentage of plant and animal habitats.

Vulnerability and cosusceptibility determine the size of network cascades

DOE PAGES

Yang, Yang; Nishikawa, Takashi; Motter, Adilson E.

2017-01-27

In a network, a local disturbance can propagate and eventually cause a substantial part of the system to fail in cascade events that are easy to conceptualize but extraordinarily difficult to predict. Furthermore, we develop a statistical framework that can predict cascade size distributions by incorporating two ingredients only: the vulnerability of individual components and the cosusceptibility of groups of components (i.e., their tendency to fail together). Using cascades in power grids as a representative example, we show that correlations between component failures define structured and often surprisingly large groups of cosusceptible components. Aside from their implications for blackout studies,more » these results provide insights and a new modeling framework for understanding cascades in financial systems, food webs, and complex networks in general.« less

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research.

PubMed

Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A; Johannesson, Magnus

2015-12-15

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants' individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a "statistically significant" finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.

Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

PubMed Central

Dreber, Anna; Pfeiffer, Thomas; Almenberg, Johan; Isaksson, Siri; Wilson, Brad; Chen, Yiling; Nosek, Brian A.; Johannesson, Magnus

2015-01-01

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications. PMID:26553988

Counting whales in a challenging, changing environment

PubMed Central

Williams, R.; Kelly, N.; Boebel, O.; Friedlaender, A. S.; Herr, H.; Kock, K.-H.; Lehnert, L. S.; Maksym, T.; Roberts, J.; Scheidat, M.; Siebert, U.; Brierley, A. S.

2014-01-01

Estimating abundance of Antarctic minke whales is central to the International Whaling Commission's conservation and management work and understanding impacts of climate change on polar marine ecosystems. Detecting abundance trends is problematic, in part because minke whales are frequently sighted within Antarctic sea ice where navigational safety concerns prevent ships from surveying. Using icebreaker-supported helicopters, we conducted aerial surveys across a gradient of ice conditions to estimate minke whale density in the Weddell Sea. The surveys revealed substantial numbers of whales inside the sea ice. The Antarctic summer sea ice is undergoing rapid regional change in annual extent, distribution, and length of ice-covered season. These trends, along with substantial interannual variability in ice conditions, affect the proportion of whales available to be counted by traditional shipboard surveys. The strong association between whales and the dynamic, changing sea ice requires reexamination of the power to detect trends in whale abundance or predict ecosystem responses to climate change. PMID:24622821

Measuring body composition in dogs using multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analysis and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry.

PubMed

Rae, L S; Vankan, D M; Rand, J S; Flickinger, E A; Ward, L C

2016-06-01

Thirty-five healthy, neutered, mixed breed dogs were used to determine the ability of multifrequency bioelectrical impedance analysis (MFBIA) to predict accurately fat-free mass (FFM) in dogs using dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA)-measured FFM as reference. A second aim was to compare MFBIA predictions with morphometric predictions. MFBIA-based predictors provided an accurate measure of FFM, within 1.5% when compared to DXA-derived FFM, in normal weight dogs. FFM estimates were most highly correlated with DXA-measured FFM when the prediction equation included resistance quotient, bodyweight, and body condition score. At the population level, the inclusion of impedance as a predictor variable did not add substantially to the predictive power achieved with morphometric variables alone; in individual dogs, impedance predictors were more valuable than morphometric predictors. These results indicate that, following further validation, MFBIA could provide a useful tool in clinical practice to objectively measure FFM in canine patients and help improve compliance with prevention and treatment programs for obesity in dogs. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Comparative analysis of protein interactome networks prioritizes candidate genes with cancer signatures.

PubMed

Li, Yongsheng; Sahni, Nidhi; Yi, Song

2016-11-29

Comprehensive understanding of human cancer mechanisms requires the identification of a thorough list of cancer-associated genes, which could serve as biomarkers for diagnoses and therapies in various types of cancer. Although substantial progress has been made in functional studies to uncover genes involved in cancer, these efforts are often time-consuming and costly. Therefore, it remains challenging to comprehensively identify cancer candidate genes. Network-based methods have accelerated this process through the analysis of complex molecular interactions in the cell. However, the extent to which various interactome networks can contribute to prediction of candidate genes responsible for cancer is still enigmatic. In this study, we evaluated different human protein-protein interactome networks and compared their application to cancer gene prioritization. Our results indicate that network analyses can increase the power to identify novel cancer genes. In particular, such predictive power can be enhanced with the use of unbiased systematic protein interaction maps for cancer gene prioritization. Functional analysis reveals that the top ranked genes from network predictions co-occur often with cancer-related terms in literature, and further, these candidate genes are indeed frequently mutated across cancers. Finally, our study suggests that integrating interactome networks with other omics datasets could provide novel insights into cancer-associated genes and underlying molecular mechanisms.

Toward a cumulative ecological risk model for the etiology of child maltreatment

PubMed Central

MacKenzie, Michael J.; Kotch, Jonathan B.; Lee, Li-Ching

2011-01-01

The purpose of the current study was to further the integration of cumulative risk models with empirical research on the etiology of child maltreatment. Despite the well-established literature supporting the importance of the accumulation of ecological risk, this perspective has had difficulty infiltrating empirical maltreatment research and its tendency to focus on more limited risk factors. Utilizing a sample of 842 mother-infant dyads, we compared the capacity of individual risk factors and a cumulative index to predict maltreatment reports in a prospective longitudinal investigation over the first sixteen years of life. The total load of risk in early infancy was found to be related to maternal cognitions surrounding her new role, measures of social support and well-being, and indicators of child cognitive functioning. After controlling for total level of cumulative risk, most single factors failed to predict later maltreatment reports and no single variable provided odd-ratios as powerful as the predictive power of a cumulative index. Continuing the shift away from simplistic causal models toward an appreciation for the cumulative nature of risk would be an important step forward in the way we conceptualize intervention and support programs, concentrating them squarely on alleviating the substantial risk facing so many of society’s families. PMID:24817777

Multiple Kernel Learning with Random Effects for Predicting Longitudinal Outcomes and Data Integration

PubMed Central

Chen, Tianle; Zeng, Donglin

2015-01-01

Summary Predicting disease risk and progression is one of the main goals in many clinical research studies. Cohort studies on the natural history and etiology of chronic diseases span years and data are collected at multiple visits. Although kernel-based statistical learning methods are proven to be powerful for a wide range of disease prediction problems, these methods are only well studied for independent data but not for longitudinal data. It is thus important to develop time-sensitive prediction rules that make use of the longitudinal nature of the data. In this paper, we develop a novel statistical learning method for longitudinal data by introducing subject-specific short-term and long-term latent effects through a designed kernel to account for within-subject correlation of longitudinal measurements. Since the presence of multiple sources of data is increasingly common, we embed our method in a multiple kernel learning framework and propose a regularized multiple kernel statistical learning with random effects to construct effective nonparametric prediction rules. Our method allows easy integration of various heterogeneous data sources and takes advantage of correlation among longitudinal measures to increase prediction power. We use different kernels for each data source taking advantage of the distinctive feature of each data modality, and then optimally combine data across modalities. We apply the developed methods to two large epidemiological studies, one on Huntington's disease and the other on Alzheimer's Disease (Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, ADNI) where we explore a unique opportunity to combine imaging and genetic data to study prediction of mild cognitive impairment, and show a substantial gain in performance while accounting for the longitudinal aspect of the data. PMID:26177419

Constraints on the phase gamma and new physics from B --> kpi decays

PubMed

He; Hsueh; Shi

2000-01-03

Recent results from CLEO on B-->Kpi indicate that the phase gamma may be substantially different from that obtained from other fit to the KM matrix elements in the standard model. We show that gamma extracted using B-->Kpi,pipi is sensitive to new physics occurring at loop level. It provides a powerful method to probe new physics in electroweak penguin interactions. Using effects due to anomalous gauge couplings as an example, we show that within the allowed ranges for these couplings information about gamma obtained from B-->Kpi,pipi can be very different from the standard model prediction.

Optimization of continuous and intermittent microwave extraction of pectin from banana peels.

PubMed

Swamy, Gabriela John; Muthukumarappan, Kasiviswanathan

2017-04-01

Continuous and intermittent microwave-assisted extractions were used to extract pectin from banana peels. Extraction parameters which were employed in the continuous process were microwave power (300-900W), time (100-300s), pH (1-3) and in the intermittent process were microwave power (300-900W), pulse ratio (0.5-1), pH (1-3). The independent factors were optimized with the Box-Behnken response surface design (BBD) (three factor three level) with the desirability function methodology. Results indicate that the independent factors have substantial effect on the pectin yield. Optimized solutions for highest pectin yield (2.18%) from banana peels were obtained with microwave power of 900W, time 100s and pH 3.00 in the continuous method while the intermittent process yielded the highest pectin content (2.58%) at microwave power of 900W, pulse ratio of 0.5 and pH of 3.00. The optimized conditions were validated and close agreement was observed with the validation experiment and predicted value. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Development and Application of Advanced Weather Prediction Technologies for the Wind Energy Industry (Invited)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mahoney, W. P.; Wiener, G.; Liu, Y.; Myers, W.; Johnson, D.

2010-12-01

Wind energy decision makers are required to make critical judgments on a daily basis with regard to energy generation, distribution, demand, storage, and integration. Accurate knowledge of the present and future state of the atmosphere is vital in making these decisions. As wind energy portfolios expand, this forecast problem is taking on new urgency because wind forecast inaccuracies frequently lead to substantial economic losses and constrain the national expansion of renewable energy. Improved weather prediction and precise spatial analysis of small-scale weather events are crucial for renewable energy management. In early 2009, the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) began a collaborative project with Xcel Energy Services, Inc. to perform research and develop technologies to improve Xcel Energy's ability to increase the amount of wind energy in their generation portfolio. The agreement and scope of work was designed to provide highly detailed, localized wind energy forecasts to enable Xcel Energy to more efficiently integrate electricity generated from wind into the power grid. The wind prediction technologies are designed to help Xcel Energy operators make critical decisions about powering down traditional coal and natural gas-powered plants when sufficient wind energy is predicted. The wind prediction technologies have been designed to cover Xcel Energy wind resources spanning a region from Wisconsin to New Mexico. The goal of the project is not only to improve Xcel Energy’s wind energy prediction capabilities, but also to make technological advancements in wind and wind energy prediction, expand our knowledge of boundary layer meteorology, and share the results across the renewable energy industry. To generate wind energy forecasts, NCAR is incorporating observations of current atmospheric conditions from a variety of sources including satellites, aircraft, weather radars, ground-based weather stations, wind profilers, and even wind sensors on individual wind turbines. The information is utilized by several technologies including: a) the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which generates finely detailed simulations of future atmospheric conditions, b) the Real-Time Four-Dimensional Data Assimilation System (RTFDDA), which performs continuous data assimilation providing the WRF model with continuous updates of the initial atmospheric state, 3) the Dynamic Integrated Forecast System (DICast®), which statistically optimizes the forecasts using all predictors, and 4) a suite of wind-to-power algorithms that convert wind speed to power for a wide range of wind farms with varying real-time data availability capabilities. In addition to these core wind energy prediction capabilities, NCAR implemented a high-resolution (10 km grid increment) 30-member ensemble RTFDDA prediction system that provides information on the expected range of wind power over a 72-hour forecast period covering Xcel Energy’s service areas. This talk will include descriptions of these capabilities and report on several topics including initial results of next-day forecasts and nowcasts of wind energy ramp events, influence of local observations on forecast skill, and overall lessons learned to date.

Conceptual design of a 500 watt solar AMTEC space power system

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ivanenok, J.F. III; Sievers, R.K.; Harty, R.B.

1995-12-31

Numerous design studies have been completed on Radioisotope powered Alkali Metal Thermal to Electric Converter (RAMTEC) power systems demonstrating their substantial increase in performance. Prior to recent advances in AMTEC technology and Thermal Energy Storage (TES), coupling AMTEC converters with a solar concentrator did not increase the performance of solar powered space power systems. This paper describes a conceptual design of an innovative, low cost, reliable, low mass, long life 500 watt Solar AMTEC (SAMTEC) power system, and the predicted system performance. The concept uses innovative, high voltage AMTEC cells, each containing 7 to 9 small electrolyte tubes, integrated withmore » an individual TES unit. These multi-tube AMTEC cells are identical to the AMTEC cells designed for radioisotope powered systems. The TES used in this conceptual design is the LiF-22%CaF{sub 2} unit currently being developed at NASA Lewis Research Center (LeRC) for the Solar Dynamic Ground Test Demonstration (SDGTD) Program. The system was designed to provide 500 watts of electrical power at 28 volts to a payload in Low Earth Orbit (LEO, 800 km, 28.5{degree} inclination) for a minimum lifetime of 5 years. The SAMTEC power system is predicted to have a specific power k of 5.3 to 8.9 W(e)/kg (including the concentrator, receiver, AMTEC cells, gimbals and drives, structure, power processing and control, and a 30% mass contingency) at the 500 watt power level, and 12 to 17 W(e)/kg at the 5,000 watt power level. The SAMTEC system, including all of the components listed above, is anticipated to cost $1,000/W(e) once development is complete and production begins. The SAMTEC system provides 92% of its Beginning of Life (BOL) power after a 5 year period in LEO, and SAMTEC systems should provide 10 to 15 years of life in LEO. Current AMTEC cells have demonstrated 18% efficiency in the laboratory and have been heated radiatively, with propane flames and electrical resistance heaters.« less

Optical power splitter for splitting high power light

DOEpatents

English, Jr., Ronald E.; Christensen, John J.

1995-01-01

An optical power splitter for the distribution of high-power light energy has a plurality of prisms arranged about a central axis to form a central channel. The input faces of the prisms are in a common plane which is substantially perpendicular to the central axis. A beam of light which is substantially coaxial to the central axis is incident on the prisms and at least partially strikes a surface area of each prism input face. The incident beam also partially passes through the central channel.

Effect of global warming on willingness to pay for uninterrupted electricity supply in European nations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Jed; Moeltner, Klaus; Reichl, Johannes; Schmidthaler, Michael

2018-01-01

Predicted changes in temperature and other weather events may damage the electricity grid and cause power outages. Understanding the costs of power outages and how these costs change over time with global warming can inform outage-mitigation-investment decisions. Here we show that across 19 EU nations the value of uninterrupted electricity supply is strongly related to local temperatures, and will increase as the climate warms. Bayesian hierarchical modelling of data from a choice experiment and respondent-specific temperature measures reveals estimates of willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid an hour of power outage between €0.32 and €1.86 per household. WTP varies on the basis of season and is heterogeneous between European nations. Winter outages currently cause larger per household welfare losses than summer outages per hour of outage. However, this dynamic will begin to shift under plausible future climates, with summer outages becoming substantially more costly and winter outages becoming slightly less costly on a per-household, per-hour basis.

Initial Flight Test Evaluation of the F-15 ACTIVE Axisymmetric Vectoring Nozzle Performance

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orme, John S.; Hathaway, Ross; Ferguson, Michael D.

1998-01-01

A full envelope database of a thrust-vectoring axisymmetric nozzle performance for the Pratt & Whitney Pitch/Yaw Balance Beam Nozzle (P/YBBN) is being developed using the F-15 Advanced Control Technology for Integrated Vehicles (ACTIVE) aircraft. At this time, flight research has been completed for steady-state pitch vector angles up to 20' at an altitude of 30,000 ft from low power settings to maximum afterburner power. The nozzle performance database includes vector forces, internal nozzle pressures, and temperatures all of which can be used for regression analysis modeling. The database was used to substantiate a set of nozzle performance data from wind tunnel testing and computational fluid dynamic analyses. Findings from initial flight research at Mach 0.9 and 1.2 are presented in this paper. The results show that vector efficiency is strongly influenced by power setting. A significant discrepancy in nozzle performance has been discovered between predicted and measured results during vectoring.

AMTEC radioisotope power system for the Pluto Express mission

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ivanenok, J.F. III; Sievers, R.K.

1995-12-31

The Alkali Metal Thermal to Electric Converter (AMTEC) technology has made substantial advances in the last 3 years through design improvements and technical innovations. In 1993 programs began to produce an AMTEC cell specifically for the NASA Pluto Express Mission. A set of efficiency goals was established for this series of cells to be developed. According to this plan, cell {number_sign}8 would be 17% efficient but was actually 18% efficient. Achieving this goal, as well as design advances that allow the cell to be compact, has resulted in pushing the cell from an unexciting 2 W/kg and 2% efficiency tomore » very attractive 40 W/kg and 18% measured efficiency. This paper will describe the design and predict the performance of a radioisotope powered AMTEC system for the Pluto Express mission.« less

Comprehensive curation and analysis of global interaction networks in Saccharomyces cerevisiae

PubMed Central

Reguly, Teresa; Breitkreutz, Ashton; Boucher, Lorrie; Breitkreutz, Bobby-Joe; Hon, Gary C; Myers, Chad L; Parsons, Ainslie; Friesen, Helena; Oughtred, Rose; Tong, Amy; Stark, Chris; Ho, Yuen; Botstein, David; Andrews, Brenda; Boone, Charles; Troyanskya, Olga G; Ideker, Trey; Dolinski, Kara; Batada, Nizar N; Tyers, Mike

2006-01-01

Background The study of complex biological networks and prediction of gene function has been enabled by high-throughput (HTP) methods for detection of genetic and protein interactions. Sparse coverage in HTP datasets may, however, distort network properties and confound predictions. Although a vast number of well substantiated interactions are recorded in the scientific literature, these data have not yet been distilled into networks that enable system-level inference. Results We describe here a comprehensive database of genetic and protein interactions, and associated experimental evidence, for the budding yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, as manually curated from over 31,793 abstracts and online publications. This literature-curated (LC) dataset contains 33,311 interactions, on the order of all extant HTP datasets combined. Surprisingly, HTP protein-interaction datasets currently achieve only around 14% coverage of the interactions in the literature. The LC network nevertheless shares attributes with HTP networks, including scale-free connectivity and correlations between interactions, abundance, localization, and expression. We find that essential genes or proteins are enriched for interactions with other essential genes or proteins, suggesting that the global network may be functionally unified. This interconnectivity is supported by a substantial overlap of protein and genetic interactions in the LC dataset. We show that the LC dataset considerably improves the predictive power of network-analysis approaches. The full LC dataset is available at the BioGRID () and SGD () databases. Conclusion Comprehensive datasets of biological interactions derived from the primary literature provide critical benchmarks for HTP methods, augment functional prediction, and reveal system-level attributes of biological networks. PMID:16762047

EEG Beta Power but Not Background Music Predicts the Recall Scores in a Foreign-Vocabulary Learning Task.

PubMed

Küssner, Mats B; de Groot, Annette M B; Hofman, Winni F; Hillen, Marij A

2016-01-01

As tantalizing as the idea that background music beneficially affects foreign vocabulary learning may seem, there is-partly due to a lack of theory-driven research-no consistent evidence to support this notion. We investigated inter-individual differences in the effects of background music on foreign vocabulary learning. Based on Eysenck's theory of personality we predicted that individuals with a high level of cortical arousal should perform worse when learning with background music compared to silence, whereas individuals with a low level of cortical arousal should be unaffected by background music or benefit from it. Participants were tested in a paired-associate learning paradigm consisting of three immediate word recall tasks, as well as a delayed recall task one week later. Baseline cortical arousal assessed with spontaneous EEG measurement in silence prior to the learning rounds was used for the analyses. Results revealed no interaction between cortical arousal and the learning condition (background music vs. silence). Instead, we found an unexpected main effect of cortical arousal in the beta band on recall, indicating that individuals with high beta power learned more vocabulary than those with low beta power. To substantiate this finding we conducted an exact replication of the experiment. Whereas the main effect of cortical arousal was only present in a subsample of participants, a beneficial main effect of background music appeared. A combined analysis of both experiments suggests that beta power predicts the performance in the word recall task, but that there is no effect of background music on foreign vocabulary learning. In light of these findings, we discuss whether searching for effects of background music on foreign vocabulary learning, independent of factors such as inter-individual differences and task complexity, might be a red herring. Importantly, our findings emphasize the need for sufficiently powered research designs and exact replications of theory-driven experiments when investigating effects of background music and inter-individual variation on task performance.

EEG Beta Power but Not Background Music Predicts the Recall Scores in a Foreign-Vocabulary Learning Task

PubMed Central

de Groot, Annette M. B.; Hofman, Winni F.; Hillen, Marij A.

2016-01-01

As tantalizing as the idea that background music beneficially affects foreign vocabulary learning may seem, there is—partly due to a lack of theory-driven research—no consistent evidence to support this notion. We investigated inter-individual differences in the effects of background music on foreign vocabulary learning. Based on Eysenck’s theory of personality we predicted that individuals with a high level of cortical arousal should perform worse when learning with background music compared to silence, whereas individuals with a low level of cortical arousal should be unaffected by background music or benefit from it. Participants were tested in a paired-associate learning paradigm consisting of three immediate word recall tasks, as well as a delayed recall task one week later. Baseline cortical arousal assessed with spontaneous EEG measurement in silence prior to the learning rounds was used for the analyses. Results revealed no interaction between cortical arousal and the learning condition (background music vs. silence). Instead, we found an unexpected main effect of cortical arousal in the beta band on recall, indicating that individuals with high beta power learned more vocabulary than those with low beta power. To substantiate this finding we conducted an exact replication of the experiment. Whereas the main effect of cortical arousal was only present in a subsample of participants, a beneficial main effect of background music appeared. A combined analysis of both experiments suggests that beta power predicts the performance in the word recall task, but that there is no effect of background music on foreign vocabulary learning. In light of these findings, we discuss whether searching for effects of background music on foreign vocabulary learning, independent of factors such as inter-individual differences and task complexity, might be a red herring. Importantly, our findings emphasize the need for sufficiently powered research designs and exact replications of theory-driven experiments when investigating effects of background music and inter-individual variation on task performance. PMID:27537520

Potential climatic impacts and reliability of large-scale offshore wind farms

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Chien; Prinn, Ronald G.

2011-04-01

The vast availability of wind power has fueled substantial interest in this renewable energy source as a potential near-zero greenhouse gas emission technology for meeting future world energy needs while addressing the climate change issue. However, in order to provide even a fraction of the estimated future energy needs, a large-scale deployment of wind turbines (several million) is required. The consequent environmental impacts, and the inherent reliability of such a large-scale usage of intermittent wind power would have to be carefully assessed, in addition to the need to lower the high current unit wind power costs. Our previous study (Wang and Prinn 2010 Atmos. Chem. Phys. 10 2053) using a three-dimensional climate model suggested that a large deployment of wind turbines over land to meet about 10% of predicted world energy needs in 2100 could lead to a significant temperature increase in the lower atmosphere over the installed regions. A global-scale perturbation to the general circulation patterns as well as to the cloud and precipitation distribution was also predicted. In the later study reported here, we conducted a set of six additional model simulations using an improved climate model to further address the potential environmental and intermittency issues of large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines for differing installation areas and spatial densities. In contrast to the previous land installation results, the offshore wind turbine installations are found to cause a surface cooling over the installed offshore regions. This cooling is due principally to the enhanced latent heat flux from the sea surface to lower atmosphere, driven by an increase in turbulent mixing caused by the wind turbines which was not entirely offset by the concurrent reduction of mean wind kinetic energy. We found that the perturbation of the large-scale deployment of offshore wind turbines to the global climate is relatively small compared to the case of land-based installations. However, the intermittency caused by the significant seasonal wind variations over several major offshore sites is substantial, and demands further options to ensure the reliability of large-scale offshore wind power. The method that we used to simulate the offshore wind turbine effect on the lower atmosphere involved simply increasing the ocean surface drag coefficient. While this method is consistent with several detailed fine-scale simulations of wind turbines, it still needs further study to ensure its validity. New field observations of actual wind turbine arrays are definitely required to provide ultimate validation of the model predictions presented here.

High average power pockels cell

DOEpatents

Daly, Thomas P.

1991-01-01

A high average power pockels cell is disclosed which reduces the effect of thermally induced strains in high average power laser technology. The pockels cell includes an elongated, substantially rectangular crystalline structure formed from a KDP-type material to eliminate shear strains. The X- and Y-axes are oriented substantially perpendicular to the edges of the crystal cross-section and to the C-axis direction of propagation to eliminate shear strains.

40 CFR 40.115-2 - Intermunicipal agency.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... ASSISTANCE RESEARCH AND DEMONSTRATION GRANTS § 40.115-2 Intermunicipal agency. (a) Under the Clean Air Act... substantial powers or duties pertaining to the prevention and control of air pollution. (b) Under the Resource... having substantial powers or duties pertaining to the control of pollution. [38 FR 12784, May 15, 1973...

Comprehensive assessment of the effective scope of modernization of thermal power plants to substantiate the rational structure of the generating capacities for the future until 2035

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Veselov, F. V.; Erokhina, I. V.; Makarova, A. S.; Khorshev, A. A.

2017-03-01

The article deals with issues of technical and economic substantiation of priorities and scopes of modernizing the existing thermal power plants (TPPs) in Russia to work out long-term forecasts of the development of the industry. The current situation in the TPP modernization trends is analyzed. The updated initial figures of the capital and operation costs are presented and the obtained estimates of the comparative efficiency of various investment decisions on modernization and equipment replacement at gas-and-oil-burning and coal-fired TPPs with regard to the main zones of the national Unified Power System (UPS) of Russia are cited. The results of optimization of the generating capacity structure underlie a study of alternative TPP modernization strategies that differ in the scope of switching to new technologies, capital intensity, and energy efficiency (decrease in the average heat rate). To provide an integral economic assessment of the above strategies, the authors modified the traditional approach based on determination of the overall discounted costs of power supply (least-cost planning) supplemented with a comparison by the weighted average wholesale price of the electricity. A method for prediction of the wholesale price is proposed reasoning from the direct and dual solutions of the optimization problem. The method can be adapted to various combinations of the mechanisms of payment for the electricity and the capacity on the basis of marginal and average costs. Energy and economic analysis showed that the opposite effects of reduction in the capital investment and fuel saving change in a nonlinear way as the scope of the switch to more advanced power generation technologies at the TPPs increases. As a consequence, a strategy for modernization of the existing power plants rational with respect to total costs of the power supply and wholesale electricity prices has been formulated. The strategy combines decisions on upgrade and replacement of the equipment at the existing power plants of various types. The basic parameters of the strategy for the future until 2035 are provided.

Scaling laws for perturbations in the ocean-atmosphere system following large CO2 emissions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Towles, N.; Olson, P.; Gnanadesikan, A.

2015-01-01

Scaling relationships are derived for the perturbations to atmosphere and ocean variables from large transient CO2 emissions. Using the carbon cycle model LOSCAR (Zeebe et al., 2009; Zeebe, 2012b) we calculate perturbations to atmosphere temperature and total carbon, ocean temperature, total ocean carbon, pH, and alkalinity, marine sediment carbon, plus carbon-13 isotope anomalies in the ocean and atmosphere resulting from idealized CO2 emission events. The peak perturbations in the atmosphere and ocean variables are then fit to power law functions of the form γDαEbeta, where D is the event duration, E is its total carbon emission, and γ is a coefficient. Good power law fits are obtained for most system variables for E up to 50 000 PgC and D up to 100 kyr. However, these power laws deviate substantially from predictions based on simplified equilibrium considerations. For example, although all of the peak perturbations increase with emission rate E/D, we find no evidence of emission rate-only scaling α + β =0, a prediction of the long-term equilibrium between CO2 input by volcanism and CO2 removal by silicate weathering. Instead, our scaling yields α + β ≃ 1 for total ocean and atmosphere carbon and 0< α + β < 1 for most of the other system variables. The deviations in these scaling laws from equilibrium predictions are mainly due to the multitude and diversity of time scales that govern the exchange of carbon between marine sediments, the ocean, and the atmosphere.

TargetSpy: a supervised machine learning approach for microRNA target prediction.

PubMed

Sturm, Martin; Hackenberg, Michael; Langenberger, David; Frishman, Dmitrij

2010-05-28

Virtually all currently available microRNA target site prediction algorithms require the presence of a (conserved) seed match to the 5' end of the microRNA. Recently however, it has been shown that this requirement might be too stringent, leading to a substantial number of missed target sites. We developed TargetSpy, a novel computational approach for predicting target sites regardless of the presence of a seed match. It is based on machine learning and automatic feature selection using a wide spectrum of compositional, structural, and base pairing features covering current biological knowledge. Our model does not rely on evolutionary conservation, which allows the detection of species-specific interactions and makes TargetSpy suitable for analyzing unconserved genomic sequences.In order to allow for an unbiased comparison of TargetSpy to other methods, we classified all algorithms into three groups: I) no seed match requirement, II) seed match requirement, and III) conserved seed match requirement. TargetSpy predictions for classes II and III are generated by appropriate postfiltering. On a human dataset revealing fold-change in protein production for five selected microRNAs our method shows superior performance in all classes. In Drosophila melanogaster not only our class II and III predictions are on par with other algorithms, but notably the class I (no-seed) predictions are just marginally less accurate. We estimate that TargetSpy predicts between 26 and 112 functional target sites without a seed match per microRNA that are missed by all other currently available algorithms. Only a few algorithms can predict target sites without demanding a seed match and TargetSpy demonstrates a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy in that class. Furthermore, when conservation and the presence of a seed match are required, the performance is comparable with state-of-the-art algorithms. TargetSpy was trained on mouse and performs well in human and drosophila, suggesting that it may be applicable to a broad range of species. Moreover, we have demonstrated that the application of machine learning techniques in combination with upcoming deep sequencing data results in a powerful microRNA target site prediction tool http://www.targetspy.org.

TargetSpy: a supervised machine learning approach for microRNA target prediction

PubMed Central

2010-01-01

Background Virtually all currently available microRNA target site prediction algorithms require the presence of a (conserved) seed match to the 5' end of the microRNA. Recently however, it has been shown that this requirement might be too stringent, leading to a substantial number of missed target sites. Results We developed TargetSpy, a novel computational approach for predicting target sites regardless of the presence of a seed match. It is based on machine learning and automatic feature selection using a wide spectrum of compositional, structural, and base pairing features covering current biological knowledge. Our model does not rely on evolutionary conservation, which allows the detection of species-specific interactions and makes TargetSpy suitable for analyzing unconserved genomic sequences. In order to allow for an unbiased comparison of TargetSpy to other methods, we classified all algorithms into three groups: I) no seed match requirement, II) seed match requirement, and III) conserved seed match requirement. TargetSpy predictions for classes II and III are generated by appropriate postfiltering. On a human dataset revealing fold-change in protein production for five selected microRNAs our method shows superior performance in all classes. In Drosophila melanogaster not only our class II and III predictions are on par with other algorithms, but notably the class I (no-seed) predictions are just marginally less accurate. We estimate that TargetSpy predicts between 26 and 112 functional target sites without a seed match per microRNA that are missed by all other currently available algorithms. Conclusion Only a few algorithms can predict target sites without demanding a seed match and TargetSpy demonstrates a substantial improvement in prediction accuracy in that class. Furthermore, when conservation and the presence of a seed match are required, the performance is comparable with state-of-the-art algorithms. TargetSpy was trained on mouse and performs well in human and drosophila, suggesting that it may be applicable to a broad range of species. Moreover, we have demonstrated that the application of machine learning techniques in combination with upcoming deep sequencing data results in a powerful microRNA target site prediction tool http://www.targetspy.org. PMID:20509939

Prestimulus Alpha Power Influences Tactile Temporal Perceptual Discrimination and Confidence in Decisions.

PubMed

Baumgarten, Thomas J; Schnitzler, Alfons; Lange, Joachim

2016-03-01

Recent studies have demonstrated that prestimulus alpha-band activity substantially influences perception of near-threshold stimuli. Here, we studied the influence of prestimulus alpha power fluctuations on temporal perceptual discrimination of suprathreshold tactile stimuli and subjects' confidence regarding their perceptual decisions. We investigated how prestimulus alpha-band power influences poststimulus decision-making variables. We presented electrical stimuli with different stimulus onset asynchronies (SOAs) to human subjects, and determined the SOA for which temporal perceptual discrimination varied on a trial-by-trial basis between perceiving 1 or 2 stimuli, prior to recording brain activity with magnetoencephalography. We found that low prestimulus alpha power in contralateral somatosensory and occipital areas predicts the veridical temporal perceptual discrimination of 2 stimuli. Additionally, prestimulus alpha power was negatively correlated with confidence ratings in correctly perceived trials, but positively correlated for incorrectly perceived trials. Finally, poststimulus event-related fields (ERFs) were modulated by prestimulus alpha power and reflect the result of a decisional process rather than physical stimulus parameters around ∼150 ms. These findings provide new insights into the link between spontaneous prestimulus alpha power fluctuations, temporal perceptual discrimination, decision making, and decisional confidence. The results suggest that prestimulus alpha power modulates perception and decisions on a continuous scale, as reflected in confidence ratings. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Identification and Management of Pump Thrombus in the HeartWare Left Ventricular Assist Device System: A Novel Approach Using Log File Analysis.

PubMed

Jorde, Ulrich P; Aaronson, Keith D; Najjar, Samer S; Pagani, Francis D; Hayward, Christopher; Zimpfer, Daniel; Schlöglhofer, Thomas; Pham, Duc T; Goldstein, Daniel J; Leadley, Katrin; Chow, Ming-Jay; Brown, Michael C; Uriel, Nir

2015-11-01

The study sought to characterize patterns in the HeartWare (HeartWare Inc., Framingham, Massachusetts) ventricular assist device (HVAD) log files associated with successful medical treatment of device thrombosis. Device thrombosis is a serious adverse event for mechanical circulatory support devices and is often preceded by increased power consumption. Log files of the pump power are easily accessible on the bedside monitor of HVAD patients and may allow early diagnosis of device thrombosis. Furthermore, analysis of the log files may be able to predict the success rate of thrombolysis or the need for pump exchange. The log files of 15 ADVANCE trial patients (algorithm derivation cohort) with 16 pump thrombus events treated with tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) were assessed for changes in the absolute and rate of increase in power consumption. Successful thrombolysis was defined as a clinical resolution of pump thrombus including normalization of power consumption and improvement in biochemical markers of hemolysis. Significant differences in log file patterns between successful and unsuccessful thrombolysis treatments were verified in 43 patients with 53 pump thrombus events implanted outside of clinical trials (validation cohort). The overall success rate of tPA therapy was 57%. Successful treatments had significantly lower measures of percent of expected power (130.9% vs. 196.1%, p = 0.016) and rate of increase in power (0.61 vs. 2.87, p < 0.0001). Medical therapy was successful in 77.7% of the algorithm development cohort and 81.3% of the validation cohort when the rate of power increase and percent of expected power values were <1.25% and 200%, respectively. Log file parameters can potentially predict the likelihood of successful tPA treatments and if validated prospectively, could substantially alter the approach to thrombus management. Copyright © 2015 American College of Cardiology Foundation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

On the predictability of land surface fluxes from meteorological variables

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haughton, Ned; Abramowitz, Gab; Pitman, Andy J.

2018-01-01

Previous research has shown that land surface models (LSMs) are performing poorly when compared with relatively simple empirical models over a wide range of metrics and environments. Atmospheric driving data appear to provide information about land surface fluxes that LSMs are not fully utilising. Here, we further quantify the information available in the meteorological forcing data that are used by LSMs for predicting land surface fluxes, by interrogating FLUXNET data, and extending the benchmarking methodology used in previous experiments. We show that substantial performance improvement is possible for empirical models using meteorological data alone, with no explicit vegetation or soil properties, thus setting lower bounds on a priori expectations on LSM performance. The process also identifies key meteorological variables that provide predictive power. We provide an ensemble of empirical benchmarks that are simple to reproduce and provide a range of behaviours and predictive performance, acting as a baseline benchmark set for future studies. We reanalyse previously published LSM simulations and show that there is more diversity between LSMs than previously indicated, although it remains unclear why LSMs are broadly performing so much worse than simple empirical models.

Kantian fractionalization predicts the conflict propensity of the international system

PubMed Central

Cranmer, Skyler J.; Menninga, Elizabeth J.; Mucha, Peter J.

2015-01-01

Network science has spurred a reexamination of relational phenomena in political science, including the study of international conflict. We introduce a new direction to the study of conflict by showing that the multiplex fractionalization of the international system along three key dimensions is a powerful predictor of the propensity for violent interstate conflict. Even after controlling for well-established conflict indicators, our new measure contributes more to model fit for interstate conflict than all of the previously established measures combined. Moreover, joint democracy plays little, if any, role in predicting system stability, thus challenging perhaps the major empirical finding of the international relations literature. Lastly, the temporal variability of our measure with conflict is consistent with a causal relationship. Our results have real-world policy implications as changes in our fractionalization measure substantially aid the prediction of conflict up to 10 years into the future, allowing it to serve as an early warning sign of international instability. PMID:26338977

A summary of wind power prediction methods

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yuqi

2018-06-01

The deterministic prediction of wind power, the probability prediction and the prediction of wind power ramp events are introduced in this paper. Deterministic prediction includes the prediction of statistical learning based on histor ical data and the prediction of physical models based on NWP data. Due to the great impact of wind power ramp events on the power system, this paper also introduces the prediction of wind power ramp events. At last, the evaluation indicators of all kinds of prediction are given. The prediction of wind power can be a good solution to the adverse effects of wind power on the power system due to the abrupt, intermittent and undulation of wind power.

Optical power splitter for splitting high power light

DOEpatents

English, R.E. Jr.; Christensen, J.J.

1995-04-18

An optical power splitter for the distribution of high-power light energy has a plurality of prisms arranged about a central axis to form a central channel. The input faces of the prisms are in a common plane which is substantially perpendicular to the central axis. A beam of light which is substantially coaxial to the central axis is incident on the prisms and at least partially strikes a surface area of each prism input face. The incident beam also partially passes through the central channel. 5 figs.

ELECTROCHEMISTRY AND ON-CELL REFORMATION MODELING FOR SOLID OXIDE FUEL CELL STACKS

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Recknagle, Kurtis P.; Jarboe, Daniel T.; Johnson, Kenneth I.

2007-01-16

ABSTRACT Providing adequate and efficient cooling schemes for solid-oxide-fuel-cell (SOFC) stacks continues to be a challenge coincident with the development of larger, more powerful stacks. The endothermic steam-methane reformation reaction can provide cooling and improved system efficiency when performed directly on the electrochemically active anode. Rapid kinetics of the endothermic reaction typically causes a localized temperature depression on the anode near the fuel inlet. It is desirable to extend the endothermic effect over more of the cell area and mitigate the associated differences in temperature on the cell to alleviate subsequent thermal stresses. In this study, modeling tools validated formore » the prediction of fuel use, on-cell methane reforming, and the distribution of temperature within SOFC stacks, are employed to provide direction for modifying the catalytic activity of anode materials to control the methane conversion rate. Improvements in thermal management that can be achieved through on-cell reforming is predicted and discussed. Two operating scenarios are considered: one in which the methane fuel is fully pre-reformed, and another in which a substantial percentage of the methane is reformed on-cell. For the latter, a range of catalytic activity is considered and the predicted thermal effects on the cell are presented. Simulations of the cell electrochemical and thermal performance with and without on-cell reforming, including structural analyses, show a substantial decrease in thermal stresses for an on-cell reforming case with slowed methane conversion.« less

Development of orientation tuning in simple cells of primary visual cortex

PubMed Central

Moore, Bartlett D.

2012-01-01

Orientation selectivity and its development are basic features of visual cortex. The original model of orientation selectivity proposes that elongated simple cell receptive fields are constructed from convergent input of an array of lateral geniculate nucleus neurons. However, orientation selectivity of simple cells in the visual cortex is generally greater than the linear contributions based on projections from spatial receptive field profiles. This implies that additional selectivity may arise from intracortical mechanisms. The hierarchical processing idea implies mainly linear connections, whereas cortical contributions are generally considered to be nonlinear. We have explored development of orientation selectivity in visual cortex with a focus on linear and nonlinear factors in a population of anesthetized 4-wk postnatal kittens and adult cats. Linear contributions are estimated from receptive field maps by which orientation tuning curves are generated and bandwidth is quantified. Nonlinear components are estimated as the magnitude of the power function relationship between responses measured from drifting sinusoidal gratings and those predicted from the spatial receptive field. Measured bandwidths for kittens are slightly larger than those in adults, whereas predicted bandwidths are substantially broader. These results suggest that relatively strong nonlinearities in early postnatal stages are substantially involved in the development of orientation tuning in visual cortex. PMID:22323631

18 CFR 2.1a - Public suggestions, comments, proposals on substantial prospective regulatory issues and problems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2014-04-01 2014-04-01 false Public suggestions, comments, proposals on substantial prospective regulatory issues and problems. 2.1a Section 2.1a Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY GENERAL...

18 CFR 2.1a - Public suggestions, comments, proposals on substantial prospective regulatory issues and problems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2012-04-01 2012-04-01 false Public suggestions, comments, proposals on substantial prospective regulatory issues and problems. 2.1a Section 2.1a Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY GENERAL...

18 CFR 2.1a - Public suggestions, comments, proposals on substantial prospective regulatory issues and problems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2013-04-01 2013-04-01 false Public suggestions, comments, proposals on substantial prospective regulatory issues and problems. 2.1a Section 2.1a Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY GENERAL...

18 CFR 2.1a - Public suggestions, comments, proposals on substantial prospective regulatory issues and problems.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Public suggestions, comments, proposals on substantial prospective regulatory issues and problems. 2.1a Section 2.1a Conservation of Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY GENERAL...

A New Hybrid Spatio-temporal Model for Estimating Daily Multi-year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

2014-01-01

The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter PM(sub 2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data.We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM(sub 2.5) at a 1X 1 km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1 X 1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM(sub 2.5) measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R(sup 2) = 0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R(sup 2) = 0.87, R(sup)2 = 0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

A New Hybrid Spatio-Temporal Model For Estimating Daily Multi-Year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data.

PubMed

Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A; Just, Allan C; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

2014-10-01

The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data. We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM 2.5 at a 1×1km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003-2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1×1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM 2.5 measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R 2 =0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R 2 =0.87, R 2 =0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region.

A New Hybrid Spatio-Temporal Model For Estimating Daily Multi-Year PM2.5 Concentrations Across Northeastern USA Using High Resolution Aerosol Optical Depth Data

PubMed Central

Kloog, Itai; Chudnovsky, Alexandra A.; Just, Allan C.; Nordio, Francesco; Koutrakis, Petros; Coull, Brent A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Schwartz, Joel

2017-01-01

Background The use of satellite-based aerosol optical depth (AOD) to estimate fine particulate matter (PM2.5) for epidemiology studies has increased substantially over the past few years. These recent studies often report moderate predictive power, which can generate downward bias in effect estimates. In addition, AOD measurements have only moderate spatial resolution, and have substantial missing data. Methods We make use of recent advances in MODIS satellite data processing algorithms (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction (MAIAC), which allow us to use 1 km (versus currently available 10 km) resolution AOD data. We developed and cross validated models to predict daily PM2.5 at a 1×1km resolution across the northeastern USA (New England, New York and New Jersey) for the years 2003–2011, allowing us to better differentiate daily and long term exposure between urban, suburban, and rural areas. Additionally, we developed an approach that allows us to generate daily high-resolution 200 m localized predictions representing deviations from the area 1×1 km grid predictions. We used mixed models regressing PM2.5 measurements against day-specific random intercepts, and fixed and random AOD and temperature slopes. We then use generalized additive mixed models with spatial smoothing to generate grid cell predictions when AOD was missing. Finally, to get 200 m localized predictions, we regressed the residuals from the final model for each monitor against the local spatial and temporal variables at each monitoring site. Results Our model performance was excellent (mean out-of-sample R2=0.88). The spatial and temporal components of the out-of-sample results also presented very good fits to the withheld data (R2=0.87, R2=0.87). In addition, our results revealed very little bias in the predicted concentrations (Slope of predictions versus withheld observations = 0.99). Conclusion Our daily model results show high predictive accuracy at high spatial resolutions and will be useful in reconstructing exposure histories for epidemiological studies across this region. PMID:28966552

Predicting cognitive function of the Malaysian elderly: a structural equation modelling approach.

PubMed

Foong, Hui Foh; Hamid, Tengku Aizan; Ibrahim, Rahimah; Haron, Sharifah Azizah; Shahar, Suzana

2018-01-01

The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of elderly's cognitive function based on biopsychosocial and cognitive reserve perspectives. The study included 2322 community-dwelling elderly in Malaysia, randomly selected through a multi-stage proportional cluster random sampling from Peninsular Malaysia. The elderly were surveyed on socio-demographic information, biomarkers, psychosocial status, disability, and cognitive function. A biopsychosocial model of cognitive function was developed to test variables' predictive power on cognitive function. Statistical analyses were performed using SPSS (version 15.0) in conjunction with Analysis of Moment Structures Graphics (AMOS 7.0). The estimated theoretical model fitted the data well. Psychosocial stress and metabolic syndrome (MetS) negatively predicted cognitive function and psychosocial stress appeared as a main predictor. Socio-demographic characteristics, except gender, also had significant effects on cognitive function. However, disability failed to predict cognitive function. Several factors together may predict cognitive function in the Malaysian elderly population, and the variance accounted for it is large enough to be considered substantial. Key factor associated with the elderly's cognitive function seems to be psychosocial well-being. Thus, psychosocial well-being should be included in the elderly assessment, apart from medical conditions, both in clinical and community setting.

Modified aging of elite athletes revealed by analysis of epigenetic age markers

PubMed Central

Spólnicka, Magdalena; Pośpiech, Ewelina; Adamczyk, Jakub Grzegorz; Freire-Aradas, Ana; Pepłońska, Beata; Zbieć-Piekarska, Renata; Makowska, Żanetta; Pięta, Anna; Lareu, Maria Victoria; Phillips, Christopher; Płoski, Rafał; Żekanowski, Cezary

2018-01-01

Recent progress in epigenomics has led to the development of prediction systems that enable accurate age estimation from DNA methylation data. Our objective was to track responses to intense physical exercise of individual age-correlated DNA methylation markers and to infer their potential impact on the aging processes. The study showed accelerated DNA hypermethylation for two CpG sites in TRIM59 and KLF14. Both markers predicted the investigated elite athletes to be several years older than controls and this effect was more substantial in subjects involved in power sports. Accordingly, the complete 5-CpG model revealed age acceleration of elite athletes (P=1.503x10-7) and the result was more significant amongst power athletes (P=1.051x10-9). The modified methylation of TRIM59 and KLF14 in top athletes may be accounted for by the biological roles played by these genes. Their known anti-tumour and anti-inflammatory activities suggests that intense physical training has a complex influence on aging and potentially launches signalling networks that contribute to the observed lower risk of elite athletes to develop cardiovascular disease and cancer. PMID:29466246

Modified aging of elite athletes revealed by analysis of epigenetic age markers.

PubMed

Spólnicka, Magdalena; Pośpiech, Ewelina; Adamczyk, Jakub Grzegorz; Freire-Aradas, Ana; Pepłońska, Beata; Zbieć-Piekarska, Renata; Makowska, Żanetta; Pięta, Anna; Lareu, Maria Victoria; Phillips, Christopher; Płoski, Rafał; Żekanowski, Cezary; Branicki, Wojciech

2018-02-15

Recent progress in epigenomics has led to the development of prediction systems that enable accurate age estimation from DNA methylation data. Our objective was to track responses to intense physical exercise of individual age-correlated DNA methylation markers and to infer their potential impact on the aging processes. The study showed accelerated DNA hypermethylation for two CpG sites in TRIM59 and KLF14 . Both markers predicted the investigated elite athletes to be several years older than controls and this effect was more substantial in subjects involved in power sports. Accordingly, the complete 5-CpG model revealed age acceleration of elite athletes ( P =1.503x10 -7 ) and the result was more significant amongst power athletes (P=1.051x10 -9 ). The modified methylation of TRIM59 and KLF14 in top athletes may be accounted for by the biological roles played by these genes. Their known anti-tumour and anti-inflammatory activities suggests that intense physical training has a complex influence on aging and potentially launches signalling networks that contribute to the observed lower risk of elite athletes to develop cardiovascular disease and cancer.

Undermining the ACA through the executive branch and federalism: what the Trump administration's approach to health reform means for older Americans.

PubMed

Jones, David K; Gusmano, Michael K; Nadash, Pamela; Miller, Edward Alan

2018-04-12

The ACA has survived multiple existential threats in the legislative and judicial branches, including dozens of congressional attempts at repeal and two major Supreme Court cases. Even as it seems that the ACA is here to stay, what the law accomplishes is far from settled. The Trump administration is using executive powers to weaken the law, in many cases using the same powers that President Obama used to strengthen the effects of the reform. States have responded by seeking flexibility to pursue reforms, such as work requirements, that could not pass Congress and that were not allowed by the Obama administration. There is no indication that the ACA is imploding as President Trump has predicted and seems to desire, although these changes have a real and substantial impact on the lives of many Americans, including the near-elderly in unique ways.

Advanced Rotorcraft Transmission (ART) program status

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bossler, Robert; Heath, Gregory

1991-01-01

Reported herein is work done on the Advanced Rotorcraft Transmission by McDonnell Douglas Helicopter Company under Army/NASA contract. The novel concept pursued includes the use of face gears for power transmission and a torque splitting arrangement. The design reduces the size and weight of the corner-turning hardware and the next reduction stage. New methods of analyzing face gears have increased confidence in their usefulness. Test gears have been designed and manufactured for power transmission testing on the NASA-Lewis spiral bevel test rig. Transmission design effort has included finite element modeling of the split torque paths to assure equal deflection under load. A finite element model of the Apache main transmission has been completed to substantiate noise prediction methods. A positive engagement overrunning clutch design is described. Test spur gears have been made by near-net-shape forging from five different materials. Three housing materials have been procured for evaluation testing.

Wind power research at Oregon State University. [for selecting windpowered machinery sites

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hewson, E. W.

1973-01-01

There have been two primary thrusts of the research effort to date, along with several supplementary ones. One primary area has been an investigation of the wind fields along coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest, not only at the shoreline but also for a number of miles inland and offshore as well. Estimates have been made of the influence of the wind turbulence as measured at coastal sites in modifying the predicted dependence of power generated on the cube of the wind speed. Wind flow patterns in the Columbia River valley have also been studied. The second primary thrust has been to substantially modify and improve an existing wind tunnel to permit the build up of a boundary layer in which various model studies will be conducted. One of the secondary studies involved estimating the cost of building an aerogenerator.

Turbine Manufacture

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1979-01-01

The machinery pictured is a set of Turbodyne steam turbines which power a sugar mill at Bell Glade, Florida. A NASA-developed computer program called NASTRAN aided development of these and other turbines manufactured by Turbodyne Corporation's Steam Turbine Division, Wellsville, New York. An acronym for NASA Structural Analysis Program, NASTRAN is a predictive tool which advises development teams how a structural design will perform under service use conditions. Turbodyne uses NASTRAN to analyze the dynamic behavior of steam turbine components, achieving substantial savings in development costs. One of the most widely used spinoffs, NASTRAN is made available to private industry through NASA's Computer Software Management Information Center (COSMIC) at the University of Georgia.

A Tune beyond Us, Yet Ourselves: Power Sharing between People with Substantial Disabilities and Their Assistants.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Brien, John; O'Brien, Connie Lyle

This paper addresses the need to create relationships and supports that offer people with substantial disabilities the assistance they require to increase effective control of their lives ("power sharing"). The paper is based on experience and research in North American and British services to people with intellectual disabilities, autism, and…

Operating Experience and Reliability Improvements on the 5 kW CW Klystron at Jefferson Lab

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nelson, R.; Holben, S.

1997-05-01

With substantial operating hours on the RF system, considerable information on reliability of the 5 kW CW klystrons has been obtained. High early failure rates led to examination of the operating conditions and failure modes. Internal ceramic contamination caused premature failure of gun potting material and ultimate tube demise through arcing or ceramic fracture. A planned course of repotting and reconditioning of approximately 300 klystrons, plus careful attention to operating conditions and periodic analysis of operational data, has substantially reduced the failure rate. It is anticipated that implementation of planned supplemental monitoring systems for the klystrons will allow most catastrophic failures to be avoided. By predicting end of life, tubes can be changed out before they fail, thus minimizing unplanned downtime. Initial tests have also been conducted on this same klystron operated at higher voltages with resultant higher output power. The outcome of these tests will provide information to be considered for future upgrades to the accelerator.

Predicting the ultimate potential of natural gas SOFC power cycles with CO2 capture - Part A: Methodology and reference cases

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Campanari, Stefano; Mastropasqua, Luca; Gazzani, Matteo; Chiesa, Paolo; Romano, Matteo C.

2016-08-01

Driven by the search for the highest theoretical efficiency, in the latest years several studies investigated the integration of high temperature fuel cells in natural gas fired power plants, where fuel cells are integrated with simple or modified Brayton cycles and/or with additional bottoming cycles, and CO2 can be separated via chemical or physical separation, oxy-combustion and cryogenic methods. Focusing on Solid Oxide Fuel Cells (SOFC) and following a comprehensive review and analysis of possible plant configurations, this work investigates their theoretical potential efficiency and proposes two ultra-high efficiency plant configurations based on advanced intermediate-temperature SOFCs integrated with a steam turbine or gas turbine cycle. The SOFC works at atmospheric or pressurized conditions and the resulting power plant exceeds 78% LHV efficiency without CO2 capture (as discussed in part A of the work) and 70% LHV efficiency with substantial CO2 capture (part B). The power plants are simulated at the 100 MW scale with a complete set of realistic assumptions about fuel cell (FC) performance, plant components and auxiliaries, presenting detailed energy and material balances together with a second law analysis.

Uncertain future, non-numeric preferences, and the fertility transition: A case study of rural Mozambique

PubMed Central

Hayford, Sarah R.; Agadjanian, Victor

2012-01-01

In many high-fertility countries, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa, substantial proportions of women give non-numeric responses when asked about desired family size. Demographic transition theory has interpreted responses of “don’t know” or “up to God” as evidence of fatalistic attitudes toward childbearing. Alternatively, these responses can be understood as meaningful reactions to uncertainty about the future. Following this latter approach, we use data from rural Mozambique to test the hypothesis that non-numeric responses are more common when uncertainty about the future is greater. We expand on previous research linking child mortality and non-numeric fertility preferences by testing the predictive power of economic conditions, marital instability, and adult mortality. Results show that uncertainty related to adult and child mortality and to economic conditions predicts non-numeric responses, while marital stability is less strongly related. PMID:26430294

Preferential attachment and growth dynamics in complex systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamasaki, Kazuko; Matia, Kaushik; Buldyrev, Sergey V.; Fu, Dongfeng; Pammolli, Fabio; Riccaboni, Massimo; Stanley, H. Eugene

2006-09-01

Complex systems can be characterized by classes of equivalency of their elements defined according to system specific rules. We propose a generalized preferential attachment model to describe the class size distribution. The model postulates preferential growth of the existing classes and the steady influx of new classes. According to the model, the distribution changes from a pure exponential form for zero influx of new classes to a power law with an exponential cut-off form when the influx of new classes is substantial. Predictions of the model are tested through the analysis of a unique industrial database, which covers both elementary units (products) and classes (markets, firms) in a given industry (pharmaceuticals), covering the entire size distribution. The model’s predictions are in good agreement with the data. The paper sheds light on the emergence of the exponent τ≈2 observed as a universal feature of many biological, social and economic problems.

Uncertain future, non-numeric preferences, and the fertility transition: A case study of rural Mozambique.

PubMed

Hayford, Sarah R; Agadjanian, Victor

In many high-fertility countries, and especially in sub-Saharan Africa, substantial proportions of women give non-numeric responses when asked about desired family size. Demographic transition theory has interpreted responses of "don't know" or "up to God" as evidence of fatalistic attitudes toward childbearing. Alternatively, these responses can be understood as meaningful reactions to uncertainty about the future. Following this latter approach, we use data from rural Mozambique to test the hypothesis that non-numeric responses are more common when uncertainty about the future is greater. We expand on previous research linking child mortality and non-numeric fertility preferences by testing the predictive power of economic conditions, marital instability, and adult mortality. Results show that uncertainty related to adult and child mortality and to economic conditions predicts non-numeric responses, while marital stability is less strongly related.

The wind power prediction research based on mind evolutionary algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhuang, Ling; Zhao, Xinjian; Ji, Tianming; Miao, Jingwen; Cui, Haina

2018-04-01

When the wind power is connected to the power grid, its characteristics of fluctuation, intermittent and randomness will affect the stability of the power system. The wind power prediction can guarantee the power quality and reduce the operating cost of power system. There were some limitations in several traditional wind power prediction methods. On the basis, the wind power prediction method based on Mind Evolutionary Algorithm (MEA) is put forward and a prediction model is provided. The experimental results demonstrate that MEA performs efficiently in term of the wind power prediction. The MEA method has broad prospect of engineering application.

Estimation of genomic prediction accuracy from reference populations with varying degrees of relationship.

PubMed

Lee, S Hong; Clark, Sam; van der Werf, Julius H J

2017-01-01

Genomic prediction is emerging in a wide range of fields including animal and plant breeding, risk prediction in human precision medicine and forensic. It is desirable to establish a theoretical framework for genomic prediction accuracy when the reference data consists of information sources with varying degrees of relationship to the target individuals. A reference set can contain both close and distant relatives as well as 'unrelated' individuals from the wider population in the genomic prediction. The various sources of information were modeled as different populations with different effective population sizes (Ne). Both the effective number of chromosome segments (Me) and Ne are considered to be a function of the data used for prediction. We validate our theory with analyses of simulated as well as real data, and illustrate that the variation in genomic relationships with the target is a predictor of the information content of the reference set. With a similar amount of data available for each source, we show that close relatives can have a substantially larger effect on genomic prediction accuracy than lesser related individuals. We also illustrate that when prediction relies on closer relatives, there is less improvement in prediction accuracy with an increase in training data or marker panel density. We release software that can estimate the expected prediction accuracy and power when combining different reference sources with various degrees of relationship to the target, which is useful when planning genomic prediction (before or after collecting data) in animal, plant and human genetics.

Study on cold head structure of a 300 Hz thermoacoustically driven pulse tube cryocooler

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, G. Y.; Wang, X. T.; Dai, W.; Luo, E. C.

2012-04-01

High reliability, compact size and potentially high thermal efficiency make the high frequency thermoacoustically-driven pulse tube cryocooler quite promising for space use. With continuous efforts, the lowest temperature and the thermal efficiency of the coupled system have been greatly improved. So far, a cold head temperature below 60 K has been achieved on such kind of cryocooler with the operation frequency of around 300 Hz. To further improve the thermal efficiency and expedite its practical application, this work focuses on studying the influence of cold head structure on the system performance. Substantial numerical simulations were firstly carried out, which revealed that the cold head structure would greatly influence the cooling power and the thermal efficiency. To validate the predictions, a lot of experiments have been done. The experiments and calculations are in reasonable agreement. With 500 W heating power input into the engine, a no-load temperature of 63 K and a cooling power of 1.16 W at 80 K have been obtained with parallel-plate cold head, indicating encouraging improvement of the thermal efficiency.

Machine Learning Based Multi-Physical-Model Blending for Enhancing Renewable Energy Forecast -- Improvement via Situation Dependent Error Correction

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Lu, Siyuan; Hwang, Youngdeok; Khabibrakhmanov, Ildar

With increasing penetration of solar and wind energy to the total energy supply mix, the pressing need for accurate energy forecasting has become well-recognized. Here we report the development of a machine-learning based model blending approach for statistically combining multiple meteorological models for improving the accuracy of solar/wind power forecast. Importantly, we demonstrate that in addition to parameters to be predicted (such as solar irradiance and power), including additional atmospheric state parameters which collectively define weather situations as machine learning input provides further enhanced accuracy for the blended result. Functional analysis of variance shows that the error of individual modelmore » has substantial dependence on the weather situation. The machine-learning approach effectively reduces such situation dependent error thus produces more accurate results compared to conventional multi-model ensemble approaches based on simplistic equally or unequally weighted model averaging. Validation over an extended period of time results show over 30% improvement in solar irradiance/power forecast accuracy compared to forecasts based on the best individual model.« less

Strategies for Energy Efficient Resource Management of Hybrid Programming Models

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Li, Dong; Supinski, Bronis de; Schulz, Martin

2013-01-01

Many scientific applications are programmed using hybrid programming models that use both message-passing and shared-memory, due to the increasing prevalence of large-scale systems with multicore, multisocket nodes. Previous work has shown that energy efficiency can be improved using software-controlled execution schemes that consider both the programming model and the power-aware execution capabilities of the system. However, such approaches have focused on identifying optimal resource utilization for one programming model, either shared-memory or message-passing, in isolation. The potential solution space, thus the challenge, increases substantially when optimizing hybrid models since the possible resource configurations increase exponentially. Nonetheless, with the accelerating adoptionmore » of hybrid programming models, we increasingly need improved energy efficiency in hybrid parallel applications on large-scale systems. In this work, we present new software-controlled execution schemes that consider the effects of dynamic concurrency throttling (DCT) and dynamic voltage and frequency scaling (DVFS) in the context of hybrid programming models. Specifically, we present predictive models and novel algorithms based on statistical analysis that anticipate application power and time requirements under different concurrency and frequency configurations. We apply our models and methods to the NPB MZ benchmarks and selected applications from the ASC Sequoia codes. Overall, we achieve substantial energy savings (8.74% on average and up to 13.8%) with some performance gain (up to 7.5%) or negligible performance loss.« less

Validity of the Framingham point scores in the elderly: results from the Rotterdam study.

PubMed

Koller, Michael T; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Wolbers, Marcel; Stijnen, Theo; Bucher, Heiner C; Hunink, M G Myriam; Witteman, Jacqueline C M

2007-07-01

The National Cholesterol Education Program recommends assessing 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in individuals free of established CHD with the Framingham Point Scores (FPS). Individuals with a risk >20% are classified as high risk and are candidates for preventive intervention. We aimed to validate the FPS in a European population of elderly subjects. Subjects free of established CHD at baseline were selected from the Rotterdam study, a population-based cohort of subjects 55 years or older in The Netherlands. We studied calibration, discrimination (c-index), and the accuracy of high-risk classifications. Events consisted of fatal CHD and nonfatal myocardial infarction. Among 6795 subjects, 463 died because of CHD and 336 had nonfatal myocardial infarction. Predicted 10-year risk of CHD was on average well calibrated for women (9.9% observed vs 10.1% predicted) but showed substantial overestimation in men (14.3% observed vs 19.8% predicted), particularly with increasing age. This resulted in substantial number of false-positive classifications (specificity 70%) in men. In women, discrimination of the FPS was better than that in men (c-index 0.73 vs 0.63, respectively). However, because of the low baseline risk of CHD and limited discriminatory power, only 33% of all CHD events occurred in women classified as high risk. The FPS need recalibration for elderly men with better incorporation of the effect of age. In elderly women, FPS perform reasonably well. However, maintaining the rational of the high-risk threshold requires better performing models for a population with low incidence of CHD.

26 CFR 1.678(a)-1 - Person other than grantor treated as substantial owner; general rule.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... power also is treated as an owner of the trust even though he has partially released or otherwise... portion of a trust. (b) Section 678(a) treats a person as an owner of a trust if he has a power... 26 Internal Revenue 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Person other than grantor treated as substantial...

A Drone Remote Sensing for Virtual Reality Simulation System for Forest Fires: Semantic Neural Network Approach

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Narasimha Rao, Gudikandhula; Jagadeeswara Rao, Peddada; Duvvuru, Rajesh

2016-09-01

Wild fires have significant impact on atmosphere and lives. The demand of predicting exact fire area in forest may help fire management team by using drone as a robot. These are flexible, inexpensive and elevated-motion remote sensing systems that use drones as platforms are important for substantial data gaps and supplementing the capabilities of manned aircraft and satellite remote sensing systems. In addition, powerful computational tools are essential for predicting certain burned area in the duration of a forest fire. The reason of this study is to built up a smart system based on semantic neural networking for the forecast of burned areas. The usage of virtual reality simulator is used to support the instruction process of fire fighters and all users for saving of surrounded wild lives by using a naive method Semantic Neural Network System (SNNS). Semantics are valuable initially to have a enhanced representation of the burned area prediction and better alteration of simulation situation to the users. In meticulous, consequences obtained with geometric semantic neural networking is extensively superior to other methods. This learning suggests that deeper investigation of neural networking in the field of forest fires prediction could be productive.

Alzheimer disease is substantially preventable in the United States -- review of risk factors, therapy, and the prospects for an expert software system.

PubMed

Jansson, Erik T

2005-01-01

Epidemiology studies, including both regional incidence and the analysis of specific risk factors for Alzheimer's disease indicate that substantial prevention of the disease, in the 50-70 percent range, is a practical possibility for the United States. Epidemiology has identified a rich diversity of specific prevention strategies relating to nutrition, dietary supplements, lifestyle, food and environmental toxins, and in some cases medication, many of which have a capacity to reduce Alzheimer's risk by 50 percent or more. The interaction of these risk factors with brain biology is increasingly understood. In contrast, therapeutic strategies for un-prevented Alzheimer's generally prove incapable of delaying disease progression by more than 3-11 months, because extensive brain cell death occurs even in preclinical or mild cases. A public health program aimed at prevention can be fashioned with expert software packages, based on already identified risk factors. Such statistical analysis should allow the prediction of individual and group Alzheimer's risks of sufficient power to instruct the formulation of lifestyle, nutritional and environmental programs to substantially reduce disease incidence. A less satisfactory but complementary alternative is very early disease detection with therapeutic strategies focused on retardation of brain cell death, so that the person dies of another cause before the disease is clinically manifested.

Polarization modeling and predictions for Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope part 1: telescope and example instrument configurations

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Harrington, David M.; Sueoka, Stacey R.

2017-01-01

We outline polarization performance calculations and predictions for the Daniel K. Inouye Solar Telescope (DKIST) optics and show Mueller matrices for two of the first light instruments. Telescope polarization is due to polarization-dependent mirror reflectivity and rotations between groups of mirrors as the telescope moves in altitude and azimuth. The Zemax optical modeling software has polarization ray-trace capabilities and predicts system performance given a coating prescription. We develop a model coating formula that approximates measured witness sample polarization properties. Estimates show the DKIST telescope Mueller matrix as functions of wavelength, azimuth, elevation, and field angle for the cryogenic near infra-red spectro-polarimeter (CryoNIRSP) and visible spectro-polarimeter. Footprint variation is substantial and shows vignetted field points will have strong polarization effects. We estimate 2% variation of some Mueller matrix elements over the 5-arc min CryoNIRSP field. We validate the Zemax model by showing limiting cases for flat mirrors in collimated and powered designs that compare well with theoretical approximations and are testable with lab ellipsometers.

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico.

PubMed

Johansson, Michael A; Reich, Nicholas G; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S; Santillana, Mauricio

2016-09-26

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model.

Evaluating the performance of infectious disease forecasts: A comparison of climate-driven and seasonal dengue forecasts for Mexico

PubMed Central

Johansson, Michael A.; Reich, Nicholas G.; Hota, Aditi; Brownstein, John S.; Santillana, Mauricio

2016-01-01

Dengue viruses, which infect millions of people per year worldwide, cause large epidemics that strain healthcare systems. Despite diverse efforts to develop forecasting tools including autoregressive time series, climate-driven statistical, and mechanistic biological models, little work has been done to understand the contribution of different components to improved prediction. We developed a framework to assess and compare dengue forecasts produced from different types of models and evaluated the performance of seasonal autoregressive models with and without climate variables for forecasting dengue incidence in Mexico. Climate data did not significantly improve the predictive power of seasonal autoregressive models. Short-term and seasonal autocorrelation were key to improving short-term and long-term forecasts, respectively. Seasonal autoregressive models captured a substantial amount of dengue variability, but better models are needed to improve dengue forecasting. This framework contributes to the sparse literature of infectious disease prediction model evaluation, using state-of-the-art validation techniques such as out-of-sample testing and comparison to an appropriate reference model. PMID:27665707

Using chronic disease risk factors to adjust Medicare capitation payments

PubMed Central

Schauffler, Helen Halpin; Howland, Jonathan; Cobb, Janet

1992-01-01

This study evaluates the use of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters for Medicare's capitation formula, the average adjusted per capita costs (AAPCC). Risk factor data for the surviving members of the Framingham Study cohort who were examined in 1982-83 were merged with 100 percent Medicare payment data for 1984 and 1985, matching on Social Security number and sex. Seven different AAPCC models were estimated to assess the independent contributions of risk factors and measures of prior utilization and disability in increasing the explanatory power of AAPCC. The findings suggest that inclusion of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters can improve substantially the predictive accuracy of AAPCC. PMID:10124441

Social power, conflict policing, and the role of subordination signals in rhesus macaque society

PubMed Central

Beisner, Brianne A.; Hannibal, Darcy L.; Finn, Kelly R.; Fushing, Hsieh; McCowan, Brenda

2017-01-01

Objectives Policing is a conflict-limiting mechanism observed in many primate species. It is thought to require a skewed distribution of social power for some individuals to have sufficiently high social power to stop others’ fights, yet social power has not been examined in most species with policing behavior. We examined networks of subordination signals as a source of social power that permits policing behavior in rhesus macaques. Materials and Methods For each of seven captive groups of rhesus macaques, we (a) examined the structure of subordination signal networks and used GLMs to examine the relationship between (b) pairwise dominance certainty and subordination network pathways and (c) policing frequency and social power (group-level convergence in subordination signaling pathways). Results Networks of subordination signals had perfect linear transitivity, and pairs connected by both direct and indirect pathways of signals had more certain dominance relationships than pairs with no such network connection. Social power calculated using both direct and indirect network pathways showed a heavy-tailed distribution and positively predicted conflict policing. Conclusions Our results empirically substantiate that subordination signaling is associated with greater dominance relationship certainty and further show that pairs who signal rarely (or not at all) may use information from others’ signaling interactions to infer or reaffirm the relative certainty of their own relationships. We argue that the network of formal dominance relationships is central to societal stability because it is important for relationship stability and also supports the additional stabilizing mechanism of policing. PMID:26801956

Social power, conflict policing, and the role of subordination signals in rhesus macaque society.

PubMed

Beisner, Brianne A; Hannibal, Darcy L; Finn, Kelly R; Fushing, Hsieh; McCowan, Brenda

2016-05-01

Policing is a conflict-limiting mechanism observed in many primate species. It is thought to require a skewed distribution of social power for some individuals to have sufficiently high social power to stop others' fights, yet social power has not been examined in most species with policing behavior. We examined networks of subordination signals as a source of social power that permits policing behavior in rhesus macaques. For each of seven captive groups of rhesus macaques, we (a) examined the structure of subordination signal networks and used GLMs to examine the relationship between (b) pairwise dominance certainty and subordination network pathways and (c) policing frequency and social power (group-level convergence in subordination signaling pathways). Networks of subordination signals had perfect linear transitivity, and pairs connected by both direct and indirect pathways of signals had more certain dominance relationships than pairs with no such network connection. Social power calculated using both direct and indirect network pathways showed a heavy-tailed distribution and positively predicted conflict policing. Our results empirically substantiate that subordination signaling is associated with greater dominance relationship certainty and further show that pairs who signal rarely (or not at all) may use information from others' signaling interactions to infer or reaffirm the relative certainty of their own relationships. We argue that the network of formal dominance relationships is central to societal stability because it is important for relationship stability and also supports the additional stabilizing mechanism of policing. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Energy storage connection system

DOEpatents

Benedict, Eric L.; Borland, Nicholas P.; Dale, Magdelena; Freeman, Belvin; Kite, Kim A.; Petter, Jeffrey K.; Taylor, Brendan F.

2012-07-03

A power system for connecting a variable voltage power source, such as a power controller, with a plurality of energy storage devices, at least two of which have a different initial voltage than the output voltage of the variable voltage power source. The power system includes a controller that increases the output voltage of the variable voltage power source. When such output voltage is substantially equal to the initial voltage of a first one of the energy storage devices, the controller sends a signal that causes a switch to connect the variable voltage power source with the first one of the energy storage devices. The controller then causes the output voltage of the variable voltage power source to continue increasing. When the output voltage is substantially equal to the initial voltage of a second one of the energy storage devices, the controller sends a signal that causes a switch to connect the variable voltage power source with the second one of the energy storage devices.

Designing image segmentation studies: Statistical power, sample size and reference standard quality.

PubMed

Gibson, Eli; Hu, Yipeng; Huisman, Henkjan J; Barratt, Dean C

2017-12-01

Segmentation algorithms are typically evaluated by comparison to an accepted reference standard. The cost of generating accurate reference standards for medical image segmentation can be substantial. Since the study cost and the likelihood of detecting a clinically meaningful difference in accuracy both depend on the size and on the quality of the study reference standard, balancing these trade-offs supports the efficient use of research resources. In this work, we derive a statistical power calculation that enables researchers to estimate the appropriate sample size to detect clinically meaningful differences in segmentation accuracy (i.e. the proportion of voxels matching the reference standard) between two algorithms. Furthermore, we derive a formula to relate reference standard errors to their effect on the sample sizes of studies using lower-quality (but potentially more affordable and practically available) reference standards. The accuracy of the derived sample size formula was estimated through Monte Carlo simulation, demonstrating, with 95% confidence, a predicted statistical power within 4% of simulated values across a range of model parameters. This corresponds to sample size errors of less than 4 subjects and errors in the detectable accuracy difference less than 0.6%. The applicability of the formula to real-world data was assessed using bootstrap resampling simulations for pairs of algorithms from the PROMISE12 prostate MR segmentation challenge data set. The model predicted the simulated power for the majority of algorithm pairs within 4% for simulated experiments using a high-quality reference standard and within 6% for simulated experiments using a low-quality reference standard. A case study, also based on the PROMISE12 data, illustrates using the formulae to evaluate whether to use a lower-quality reference standard in a prostate segmentation study. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Asymmetric Power Boosts Extortion in an Economic Experiment

PubMed Central

Hagel, Kristin; Milinski, Manfred

2016-01-01

Direct reciprocity is a major mechanism for the evolution of cooperation. Several classical studies have suggested that humans should quickly learn to adopt reciprocal strategies to establish mutual cooperation in repeated interactions. On the other hand, the recently discovered theory of ZD strategies has found that subjects who use extortionate strategies are able to exploit and subdue cooperators. Although such extortioners have been predicted to succeed in any population of adaptive opponents, theoretical follow-up studies questioned whether extortion can evolve in reality. However, most of these studies presumed that individuals have similar strategic possibilities and comparable outside options, whereas asymmetries are ubiquitous in real world applications. Here we show with a model and an economic experiment that extortionate strategies readily emerge once subjects differ in their strategic power. Our experiment combines a repeated social dilemma with asymmetric partner choice. In our main treatment there is one randomly chosen group member who is unilaterally allowed to exchange one of the other group members after every ten rounds of the social dilemma. We find that this asymmetric replacement opportunity generally promotes cooperation, but often the resulting payoff distribution reflects the underlying power structure. Almost half of the subjects in a better strategic position turn into extortioners, who quickly proceed to exploit their peers. By adapting their cooperation probabilities consistent with ZD theory, extortioners force their co-players to cooperate without being similarly cooperative themselves. Comparison to non-extortionate players under the same conditions indicates a substantial net gain to extortion. Our results thus highlight how power asymmetries can endanger mutually beneficial interactions, and transform them into exploitative relationships. In particular, our results indicate that the extortionate strategies predicted from ZD theory could play a more prominent role in our daily interactions than previously thought. PMID:27701427

Fuel-cell based power generating system having power conditioning apparatus

DOEpatents

Mazumder, Sudip K.; Pradhan, Sanjaya K.

2010-10-05

A power conditioner includes power converters for supplying power to a load, a set of selection switches corresponding to the power converters for selectively connecting the fuel-cell stack to the power converters, and another set of selection switches corresponding to the power converters for selectively connecting the battery to the power converters. The power conveners output combined power that substantially optimally meets a present demand of the load.

Ensemble Learning of QTL Models Improves Prediction of Complex Traits

PubMed Central

Bian, Yang; Holland, James B.

2015-01-01

Quantitative trait locus (QTL) models can provide useful insights into trait genetic architecture because of their straightforward interpretability but are less useful for genetic prediction because of the difficulty in including the effects of numerous small effect loci without overfitting. Tight linkage between markers introduces near collinearity among marker genotypes, complicating the detection of QTL and estimation of QTL effects in linkage mapping, and this problem is exacerbated by very high density linkage maps. Here we developed a thinning and aggregating (TAGGING) method as a new ensemble learning approach to QTL mapping. TAGGING reduces collinearity problems by thinning dense linkage maps, maintains aspects of marker selection that characterize standard QTL mapping, and by ensembling, incorporates information from many more markers-trait associations than traditional QTL mapping. The objective of TAGGING was to improve prediction power compared with QTL mapping while also providing more specific insights into genetic architecture than genome-wide prediction models. TAGGING was compared with standard QTL mapping using cross validation of empirical data from the maize (Zea mays L.) nested association mapping population. TAGGING-assisted QTL mapping substantially improved prediction ability for both biparental and multifamily populations by reducing both the variance and bias in prediction. Furthermore, an ensemble model combining predictions from TAGGING-assisted QTL and infinitesimal models improved prediction abilities over the component models, indicating some complementarity between model assumptions and suggesting that some trait genetic architectures involve a mixture of a few major QTL and polygenic effects. PMID:26276383

H2OTSTUF: Appropriate Operating Regimes for Magnetohydrodynamic Augmentation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Jones, Jonathan E.; Hawk, Clark W.

1998-01-01

A trade study of magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) augmented propulsion reveals a unique operating regime at lower thrust levels. Substantial mass savings are realized over conventional chemical, solar, and electrical propulsion concepts when MHD augmentation is used to obtain optimal I(sub sp). However, trip times for the most conservative estimates of power plant specific impulse and accelerator efficiency may be prohibitively long. Quasi-one-dimensional calculations show that a solar or nuclear thermal system augmented by MHD can provide competitive performance while utilizing a diverse range of propellants including water, which is available from the Space Shuttle, the Moon, asteroids, and various moons and planets within our solar system. The use of in-situ propellants will reduce costs of space operations as well as enable human exploration of our Solar System. The following conclusions can be drawn from the results of the mission trade study: (1) There exists a maximum thrust or mass flow rate above which MHD augmentation increases the initial mass in low earth orbit (LEO); (2) Mass saving of over 50% can be realized for unique combination of solar/MHD systems; (3) Trip times for systems utilizing current power supply technology may be prohibitively long. Theoretical predictions of MHD performance for in space propulsion systems show that improved efficiencies can reduce trip times to acceptable levels; (4) Long trip times indicative of low thrust systems can be shortened by an increase in the MHD accelerator efficiency or a decrease in the specific mass of the power supply and power processing unit; and (5) As for all propulsion concepts, missions with larger (Delta)v's benefit more from the increased specific impulse resulting from MHD augmentation. Using a quasi-one-dimensional analysis, the required operating conditions for a MHD accelerator to reach acceptable efficiencies are outlined. This analysis shows that substantial non-equilibrium ionization is desirable.

Simulation and evaluation of phase noise for optical amplification using semiconductor optical amplifiers in DPSK applications

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hong, Wei; Huang, Dexiu; Zhang, Xinliang; Zhu, Guangxi

2008-01-01

A thorough simulation and evaluation of phase noise for optical amplification using semiconductor optical amplifier (SOA) is very important for predicting its performance in differential phase-shift keyed (DPSK) applications. In this paper, standard deviation and probability distribution of differential phase noise at the SOA output are obtained from the statistics of simulated differential phase noise. By using a full-wave model of SOA, the noise performance in the entire operation range can be investigated. It is shown that nonlinear phase noise substantially contributes to the total phase noise in case of a noisy signal amplified by a saturated SOA and the nonlinear contribution is larger with shorter SOA carrier lifetime. It is also shown that Gaussian distribution can be useful as a good approximation of the total differential phase noise statistics in the whole operation range. Power penalty due to differential phase noise is evaluated using a semi-analytical probability density function (PDF) of receiver noise. Obvious increase of power penalty at high signal input powers can be found for low input OSNR, which is due to both the large nonlinear differential phase noise and the dependence of BER vs. receiving power curvature on differential phase noise standard deviation.

Analysis and design of a high power laser adaptive phased array transmitter

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mevers, G. E.; Soohoo, J. F.; Winocur, J.; Massie, N. A.; Southwell, W. H.; Brandewie, R. A.; Hayes, C. L.

1977-01-01

The feasibility of delivering substantial quantities of optical power to a satellite in low earth orbit from a ground based high energy laser (HEL) coupled to an adaptive antenna was investigated. Diffraction effects, atmospheric transmission efficiency, adaptive compensation for atmospheric turbulence effects, including the servo bandwidth requirements for this correction, and the adaptive compensation for thermal blooming were examined. To evaluate possible HEL sources, atmospheric investigations were performed for the CO2, (C-12)(O-18)2 isotope, CO and DF wavelengths using output antenna locations of both sea level and mountain top. Results indicate that both excellent atmospheric and adaption efficiency can be obtained for mountain top operation with a micron isotope laser operating at 9.1 um, or a CO laser operating single line (P10) at about 5.0 (C-12)(O-18)2um, which was a close second in the evaluation. Four adaptive power transmitter system concepts were generated and evaluated, based on overall system efficiency, reliability, size and weight, advanced technology requirements and potential cost. A multiple source phased array was selected for detailed conceptual design. The system uses a unique adaption technique of phase locking independent laser oscillators which allows it to be both relatively inexpensive and most reliable with a predicted overall power transfer efficiency of 53%.

Health and air quality benefits of policies to reduce coal-fired power plant emissions: a case study in North Carolina.

PubMed

Li, Ya-Ru; Gibson, Jacqueline MacDonald

2014-09-02

We analyzed sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions and fine particulate sulfate (PM2.5 sulfate) concentrations in the southeastern United States during 2002-2012, in order to evaluate the health impacts in North Carolina (NC) of the NC Clean Smokestacks Act of 2002. This state law required progressive reductions (beyond those mandated by federal rules) in pollutant emissions from NC's coal-fired power plants. Although coal-fired power plants remain NC's leading SO2 source, a trend analysis shows significant declines in SO2 emissions (-20.3%/year) and PM2.5 sulfate concentrations (-8.7%/year) since passage of the act. Emissions reductions were significantly greater in NC than in neighboring states, and emissions and PM2.5 sulfate concentration reductions were highest in NC's piedmont region, where 9 of the state's 14 major coal-fired power plants are located. Our risk model estimates that these air quality improvements decreased the risk of premature death attributable to PM2.5 sulfate in NC by about 63%, resulting in an estimated 1700 (95% CI: 1500, 1800) deaths prevented in 2012. These findings lend support to recent studies predicting that implementing the proposed federal Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (recently upheld by the U.S. Supreme Court) could substantially decrease U.S. premature deaths attributable to coal-fired power plant emissions.

How does the Earth system generate and maintain thermodynamic disequilibrium and what does it imply for the future of the planet?

PubMed

Kleidon, Axel

2012-03-13

The Earth's chemical composition far from chemical equilibrium is unique in our Solar System, and this uniqueness has been attributed to the presence of widespread life on the planet. Here, I show how this notion can be quantified using non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Generating and maintaining disequilibrium in a thermodynamic variable requires the extraction of power from another thermodynamic gradient, and the second law of thermodynamics imposes fundamental limits on how much power can be extracted. With this approach and associated limits, I show that the ability of abiotic processes to generate geochemical free energy that can be used to transform the surface-atmosphere environment is strongly limited to less than 1 TW. Photosynthetic life generates more than 200 TW by performing photochemistry, thereby substantiating the notion that a geochemical composition far from equilibrium can be a sign for strong biotic activity. Present-day free energy consumption by human activity in the form of industrial activity and human appropriated net primary productivity is of the order of 50 TW and therefore constitutes a considerable term in the free energy budget of the planet. When aiming to predict the future of the planet, we first note that since global changes are closely related to this consumption of free energy, and the demands for free energy by human activity are anticipated to increase substantially in the future, the central question in the context of predicting future global change is then how human free energy demands can increase sustainably without negatively impacting the ability of the Earth system to generate free energy. This question could be evaluated with climate models, and the potential deficiencies in these models to adequately represent the thermodynamics of the Earth system are discussed. Then, I illustrate the implications of this thermodynamic perspective by discussing the forms of renewable energy and planetary engineering that would enhance the overall free energy generation and, thereby 'empower' the future of the planet.

Substantial Fast-Wave Power Flux in the SOL of a Cylindrical Model; Comparison with Coaxial Modes

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perkins, R. J.; Bertelli, N.; Hosea, J. C.; Phillips, C. K.; Taylor, G.; Wilson, J. R.

2015-11-01

The NSTX high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) heating system can lose a significant amount of power along magnetic fields lines in the SOL to the divertor regions under certain conditions. A cylindrical cold-plasma model, with parameters resembling those of NSTX, shows the existence of modes with relatively large RF field amplitudes in the low-density annulus, similar to recent results found with the full-wave simulation AORSA. Here, we compare and contrast these modes against ``coaxial modes,'' modes that resemble TEM modes found in coaxial cables. We also compute the 3D Poynting flux as a function of length along the cylinder for comparison to NSTX. Such work is part of an effort to include the proper edge damping into full-wave codes so that they can reproduce the losses observed in NSTX and predict their importance for ITER. This work was supported by DOE Contract No. DE-AC02-09CH11466.

A deformation-processed Al-matrix/Ca-nanofilamentary composite with low density, high strength, and high conductivity

DOE PAGES

Tian, Liang

2017-03-06

Light, strong materials with high conductivity are desired for many applications such as power transmission conductors, fly-by-wire systems, and downhole power feeds. However, it is difficult to obtain both high strength and high conductivity simultaneously in a material. In this study, an Al/Ca (20 vol%) nanofilamentary metal-metal composite was produced by powder metallurgy and severe plastic deformation. Fine Ca metal powders (~200 µm) were produced by centrifugal atomization, mixed with pure Al powder, and deformed by warm extrusion, swaging, and wire drawing to a true strain of 12.9. The Ca powder particles became fine Ca nanofilaments that reinforce the compositemore » substantially by interface strengthening. The conductivity of the composite is slightly lower than the rule-of-mixtures prediction due to minor quantities of impurity inclusions. As a result, the elevated temperature performance of this composite was also evaluated by differential scanning calorimetry and resistivity measurements.« less

Deriving photometric redshifts using fuzzy archetypes and self-organizing maps - I. Methodology

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Speagle, Joshua S.; Eisenstein, Daniel J.

2017-07-01

We propose a method to substantially increase the flexibility and power of template fitting-based photometric redshifts by transforming a large number of galaxy spectral templates into a corresponding collection of 'fuzzy archetypes' using a suitable set of perturbative priors designed to account for empirical variation in dust attenuation and emission-line strengths. To bypass widely separated degeneracies in parameter space (e.g. the redshift-reddening degeneracy), we train self-organizing maps (SOMs) on large 'model catalogues' generated from Monte Carlo sampling of our fuzzy archetypes to cluster the predicted observables in a topologically smooth fashion. Subsequent sampling over the SOM then allows full reconstruction of the relevant probability distribution functions (PDFs). This combined approach enables the multimodal exploration of known variation among galaxy spectral energy distributions with minimal modelling assumptions. We demonstrate the power of this approach to recover full redshift PDFs using discrete Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling methods combined with SOMs constructed from Large Synoptic Survey Telescope ugrizY and Euclid YJH mock photometry.

A deformation-processed Al-matrix/Ca-nanofilamentary composite with low density, high strength, and high conductivity

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Tian, Liang

Light, strong materials with high conductivity are desired for many applications such as power transmission conductors, fly-by-wire systems, and downhole power feeds. However, it is difficult to obtain both high strength and high conductivity simultaneously in a material. In this study, an Al/Ca (20 vol%) nanofilamentary metal-metal composite was produced by powder metallurgy and severe plastic deformation. Fine Ca metal powders (~200 µm) were produced by centrifugal atomization, mixed with pure Al powder, and deformed by warm extrusion, swaging, and wire drawing to a true strain of 12.9. The Ca powder particles became fine Ca nanofilaments that reinforce the compositemore » substantially by interface strengthening. The conductivity of the composite is slightly lower than the rule-of-mixtures prediction due to minor quantities of impurity inclusions. As a result, the elevated temperature performance of this composite was also evaluated by differential scanning calorimetry and resistivity measurements.« less

Dynamic Stark spectroscopic measurements of microwave electric fields inside the plasma near a high-power antenna.

PubMed

Klepper, C C; Isler, R C; Hillairet, J; Martin, E H; Colas, L; Ekedahl, A; Goniche, M; Harris, J H; Hillis, D L; Panayotis, S; Pegourié, B; Lotte, Ph; Colledani, G; Martin, V

2013-05-24

Fully dynamic Stark effect visible spectroscopy was used for the first time to directly measure the local rf electric field in the boundary plasma near a high-power antenna in high-performance, magnetically confined, fusion energy experiment. The measurement was performed in the superconducting tokamak Tore Supra, in the near field of a 1–3 MW, lower-hybrid, 3.7 GHz wave-launch antenna, and combined with modeling of neutral atom transport to estimate the local rf electric field amplitude (as low as 1–2 kV/cm) and direction in this region. The measurement was then shown to be consistent with the predicted values from a 2D full-wave propagation model. Notably the measurement confirmed that the electric field direction deviates substantially from the direction in which it is launched by the waveguides as it penetrates only a few cm radially inward into the plasma from the waveguides, consistent with the model.

Model calculations of kinetic and fluid dynamic processes in diode pumped alkali lasers

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Barmashenko, Boris D.; Rosenwaks, Salman; Waichman, Karol

2013-10-01

Kinetic and fluid dynamic processes in diode pumped alkali lasers (DPALs) are analyzed in detail using a semianalytical model, applicable to both static and flowing-gas devices. The model takes into account effects of temperature rise, excitation of neutral alkali atoms to high lying electronic states and their losses due to ionization and chemical reactions, resulting in a decrease of the pump absorption, slope efficiency and lasing power. Effects of natural convection in static DPALs are also taken into account. The model is applied to Cs DPALs and the results are in good agreement with measurements in a static [B.V. Zhdanov, J. Sell and R.J. Knize, Electron. Lett. 44, 582 (2008)] and 1-kW flowing-gas [A.V. Bogachev et al., Quantum Electron. 42, 95 (2012)] DPALs. It predicts the dependence of power on the flow velocity in flowing-gas DPALs and on the buffer gas composition. The maximum values of the laser power can be substantially increased by optimization of the flowing-gas DPAL parameters. In particular for the aforementioned 1 kW DPAL, 6 kW maximum power is achievable just by increasing the pump power and the temperature of the wall and the gas at the flow inlet (resulting in increase of the alkali saturated vapor density). Dependence of the lasing power on the pump power is non-monotonic: the power first increases, achieves its maximum and then decreases. The decrease of the lasing power with increasing pump power at large values of the latter is due to the rise of the aforementioned losses of the alkali atoms as a result of ionization. Work in progress applying two-dimensional computational fluid dynamics modeling of flowing-gas DPALs is also reported.

Drivers and seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds in the ECMWF System 4 and a statistical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Walz, M. A.; Donat, M.; Leckebusch, G. C.

2017-12-01

As extreme wind speeds are responsible for large socio-economic losses in Europe, a skillful prediction would be of great benefit for disaster prevention as well as for the actuarial community. Here we evaluate patterns of large-scale atmospheric variability and the seasonal predictability of extreme wind speeds (e.g. >95th percentile) in the European domain in the dynamical seasonal forecast system ECMWF System 4, and compare to the predictability based on a statistical prediction model. The dominant patterns of atmospheric variability show distinct differences between reanalysis and ECMWF System 4, with most patterns in System 4 extended downstream in comparison to ERA-Interim. The dissimilar manifestations of the patterns within the two models lead to substantially different drivers associated with the occurrence of extreme winds in the respective model. While the ECMWF System 4 is shown to provide some predictive power over Scandinavia and the eastern Atlantic, only very few grid cells in the European domain have significant correlations for extreme wind speeds in System 4 compared to ERA-Interim. In contrast, a statistical model predicts extreme wind speeds during boreal winter in better agreement with the observations. Our results suggest that System 4 does not seem to capture the potential predictability of extreme winds that exists in the real world, and therefore fails to provide reliable seasonal predictions for lead months 2-4. This is likely related to the unrealistic representation of large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability. Hence our study points to potential improvements of dynamical prediction skill by improving the simulation of large-scale atmospheric dynamics.

Very-short-term wind power prediction by a hybrid model with single- and multi-step approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

Very-short-term wind power prediction (VSTWPP) has played an essential role for the operation of electric power systems. This paper aims at improving and applying a hybrid method of VSTWPP based on historical data. The hybrid method is combined by multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), which is intended for reducing prediction errors. The predicted values are obtained through two sub-processes:1) transform the time-series data of actual wind power into the power ratio, and then predict the power ratio;2) use the predicted power ratio to predict the wind power. Besides, the proposed method can include two prediction approaches: single-step prediction (SSP) and multi-step prediction (MSP). WPP is tested comparatively by auto-regressive moving average (ARMA) model from the predicted values and errors. The validity of the proposed hybrid method is confirmed in terms of error analysis by using probability density function (PDF), mean absolute percent error (MAPE) and means square error (MSE). Meanwhile, comparison of the correlation coefficients between the actual values and the predicted values for different prediction times and window has confirmed that MSP approach by using the hybrid model is the most accurate while comparing to SSP approach and ARMA. The MLR&LS is accurate and promising for solving problems in WPP.

Edge loss of high-harmonic fast-wave heating power in NSTX: a cylindrical model

DOE PAGES

Perkins, R. J.; Hosea, J. C.; Bertelli, N.; ...

2017-09-04

Efficient high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) heating in the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) would facilitate experiments in turbulence, transport, fast-ion studies, and more. However, previous HHFW operation in NSTX exhibited a large loss of fast-wave power to the divertor along the scrape-off layer field lines for edge densities above the fast-wave cutoff. It was postulated that the wave amplitude is enhanced in the scrapeoff layer due to cavity-like modes, and that these enhanced fields drive sheath losses through RF rectification. As part of ongoing work to confirm this hypothesis, we have developed a cylindrical cold-plasma model to identify and understandmore » scenarios where a substantial fraction of wave power is confined to the plasma periphery. We previously identified a peculiar class of modes, named annulus resonances, that conduct approximately half of their wave power in the periphery and can also account for a significant fraction of the total wave power. Here, we study the influence of annulus resonances on wave field reconstructions and find instances where annulus-resonant modes dominate the spectrum and trap over half of the total wave power at the edge. The work is part of an ongoing effort to determine the mechanism underlying these scrape-off layer losses in NSTX, identify optimal conditions for operation in NSTX-U, and predict whether similar losses occur for the ion-cyclotron minority heating scheme for both current experiments and future devices such as ITER.« less

Edge loss of high-harmonic fast-wave heating power in NSTX: a cylindrical model

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perkins, R. J.; Hosea, J. C.; Bertelli, N.

Efficient high-harmonic fast-wave (HHFW) heating in the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) would facilitate experiments in turbulence, transport, fast-ion studies, and more. However, previous HHFW operation in NSTX exhibited a large loss of fast-wave power to the divertor along the scrape-off layer field lines for edge densities above the fast-wave cutoff. It was postulated that the wave amplitude is enhanced in the scrapeoff layer due to cavity-like modes, and that these enhanced fields drive sheath losses through RF rectification. As part of ongoing work to confirm this hypothesis, we have developed a cylindrical cold-plasma model to identify and understandmore » scenarios where a substantial fraction of wave power is confined to the plasma periphery. We previously identified a peculiar class of modes, named annulus resonances, that conduct approximately half of their wave power in the periphery and can also account for a significant fraction of the total wave power. Here, we study the influence of annulus resonances on wave field reconstructions and find instances where annulus-resonant modes dominate the spectrum and trap over half of the total wave power at the edge. The work is part of an ongoing effort to determine the mechanism underlying these scrape-off layer losses in NSTX, identify optimal conditions for operation in NSTX-U, and predict whether similar losses occur for the ion-cyclotron minority heating scheme for both current experiments and future devices such as ITER.« less

Fresh and Dry Mass Estimates of Hermetia illucens (Linnaeus, 1758) (Diptera: Stratiomyidae) Larvae Associated with Swine Decomposition in Urban Area of Central Amazonia.

PubMed

Barros, L M; Martins, R T; Ferreira-Keppler, R L; Gutjahr, A L N

2017-08-04

Information on biomass is substantial for calculating growth rates and may be employed in the medicolegal and economic importance of Hermetia illucens (Linnaeus, 1758). Although biomass is essential to understanding many ecological processes, it is not easily measured. Biomass may be determined by directly weighing or indirectly through regression models of fresh/dry mass versus body dimensions. In this study, we evaluated the association between morphometry and fresh/dry mass of immature H. illucens using linear, exponential, and power regression models. We measured width and length of the cephalic capsule, overall body length, and width of the largest abdominal segment of 280 larvae. Overall body length and width of the largest abdominal segment were the best predictors for biomass. Exponential models best fitted body dimensions and biomass (both fresh and dry), followed by power and linear models. In all models, fresh and dry biomass were strongly correlated (>75%). Values estimated by the models did not differ from observed ones, and prediction power varied from 27 to 79%. Accordingly, the correspondence between biomass and body dimensions should facilitate and motivate the development of applied studies involving H. illucens in the Amazon region.

Wave-Rotor-Enhanced Gas Turbine Engine Demonstrator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Welch, Gerard E.; Paxson, Daniel E.; Wilson, Jack; Synder, Philip H.

1999-01-01

The U.S. Army Research Laboratory, NASA Glenn Research Center, and Rolls-Royce Allison are working collaboratively to demonstrate the benefits and viability of a wave-rotor-topped gas turbine engine. The self-cooled wave rotor is predicted to increase the engine overall pressure ratio and peak temperature by 300% and 25 to 30%. respectively, providing substantial improvements in engine efficiency and specific power. Such performance improvements would significantly reduce engine emissions and the fuel logistics trails of armed forces. Progress towards a planned demonstration of a wave-rotor-topped Rolls-Royce Allison model 250 engine has included completion of the preliminary design and layout of the engine, the aerodynamic design of the wave rotor component and prediction of its aerodynamic performance characteristics in on- and off-design operation and during transients, and the aerodynamic design of transition ducts between the wave rotor and the high pressure turbine. The topping cycle increases the burner entry temperature and poses a design challenge to be met in the development of the demonstrator engine.

Identifying and modeling the structural discontinuities of human interactions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Grauwin, Sebastian; Szell, Michael; Sobolevsky, Stanislav; Hövel, Philipp; Simini, Filippo; Vanhoof, Maarten; Smoreda, Zbigniew; Barabási, Albert-László; Ratti, Carlo

2017-04-01

The idea of a hierarchical spatial organization of society lies at the core of seminal theories in human geography that have strongly influenced our understanding of social organization. Along the same line, the recent availability of large-scale human mobility and communication data has offered novel quantitative insights hinting at a strong geographical confinement of human interactions within neighboring regions, extending to local levels within countries. However, models of human interaction largely ignore this effect. Here, we analyze several country-wide networks of telephone calls - both, mobile and landline - and in either case uncover a systematic decrease of communication induced by borders which we identify as the missing variable in state-of-the-art models. Using this empirical evidence, we propose an alternative modeling framework that naturally stylizes the damping effect of borders. We show that this new notion substantially improves the predictive power of widely used interaction models. This increases our ability to understand, model and predict social activities and to plan the development of infrastructures across multiple scales.

Identifying and modeling the structural discontinuities of human interactions

PubMed Central

Grauwin, Sebastian; Szell, Michael; Sobolevsky, Stanislav; Hövel, Philipp; Simini, Filippo; Vanhoof, Maarten; Smoreda, Zbigniew; Barabási, Albert-László; Ratti, Carlo

2017-01-01

The idea of a hierarchical spatial organization of society lies at the core of seminal theories in human geography that have strongly influenced our understanding of social organization. Along the same line, the recent availability of large-scale human mobility and communication data has offered novel quantitative insights hinting at a strong geographical confinement of human interactions within neighboring regions, extending to local levels within countries. However, models of human interaction largely ignore this effect. Here, we analyze several country-wide networks of telephone calls - both, mobile and landline - and in either case uncover a systematic decrease of communication induced by borders which we identify as the missing variable in state-of-the-art models. Using this empirical evidence, we propose an alternative modeling framework that naturally stylizes the damping effect of borders. We show that this new notion substantially improves the predictive power of widely used interaction models. This increases our ability to understand, model and predict social activities and to plan the development of infrastructures across multiple scales. PMID:28443647

Identifying and modeling the structural discontinuities of human interactions.

PubMed

Grauwin, Sebastian; Szell, Michael; Sobolevsky, Stanislav; Hövel, Philipp; Simini, Filippo; Vanhoof, Maarten; Smoreda, Zbigniew; Barabási, Albert-László; Ratti, Carlo

2017-04-26

The idea of a hierarchical spatial organization of society lies at the core of seminal theories in human geography that have strongly influenced our understanding of social organization. Along the same line, the recent availability of large-scale human mobility and communication data has offered novel quantitative insights hinting at a strong geographical confinement of human interactions within neighboring regions, extending to local levels within countries. However, models of human interaction largely ignore this effect. Here, we analyze several country-wide networks of telephone calls - both, mobile and landline - and in either case uncover a systematic decrease of communication induced by borders which we identify as the missing variable in state-of-the-art models. Using this empirical evidence, we propose an alternative modeling framework that naturally stylizes the damping effect of borders. We show that this new notion substantially improves the predictive power of widely used interaction models. This increases our ability to understand, model and predict social activities and to plan the development of infrastructures across multiple scales.

Understanding the Day Cent model: Calibration, sensitivity, and identifiability through inverse modeling

USGS Publications Warehouse

Necpálová, Magdalena; Anex, Robert P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Del Grosso, Stephen J.; Castellano, Michael J.; Sawyer, John E.; Iqbal, Javed; Pantoja, Jose L.; Barker, Daniel W.

2015-01-01

The ability of biogeochemical ecosystem models to represent agro-ecosystems depends on their correct integration with field observations. We report simultaneous calibration of 67 DayCent model parameters using multiple observation types through inverse modeling using the PEST parameter estimation software. Parameter estimation reduced the total sum of weighted squared residuals by 56% and improved model fit to crop productivity, soil carbon, volumetric soil water content, soil temperature, N2O, and soil3NO− compared to the default simulation. Inverse modeling substantially reduced predictive model error relative to the default model for all model predictions, except for soil 3NO− and 4NH+. Post-processing analyses provided insights into parameter–observation relationships based on parameter correlations, sensitivity and identifiability. Inverse modeling tools are shown to be a powerful way to systematize and accelerate the process of biogeochemical model interrogation, improving our understanding of model function and the underlying ecosystem biogeochemical processes that they represent.

A mathematical analysis to address the 6 degree-of-freedom segmental power imbalance.

PubMed

Ebrahimi, Anahid; Collins, John D; Kepple, Thomas M; Takahashi, Kota Z; Higginson, Jill S; Stanhope, Steven J

2018-01-03

Segmental power is used in human movement analyses to indicate the source and net rate of energy transfer between the rigid bodies of biomechanical models. Segmental power calculations are performed using segment endpoint dynamics (kinetic method). A theoretically equivalent method is to measure the rate of change in a segment's mechanical energy state (kinematic method). However, these two methods have not produced experimentally equivalent results for segments proximal to the foot, with the difference in methods deemed the "power imbalance." In a 6 degree-of-freedom model, segments move independently, resulting in relative segment endpoint displacement and non-equivalent segment endpoint velocities at a joint. In the kinetic method, a segment's distal end translational velocity may be defined either at the anatomical end of the segment or at the location of the joint center (defined here as the proximal end of the adjacent distal segment). Our mathematical derivations revealed the power imbalance between the kinetic method using the anatomical definition and the kinematic method can be explained by power due to relative segment endpoint displacement. In this study, we tested this analytical prediction through experimental gait data from nine healthy subjects walking at a typical speed. The average absolute segmental power imbalance was reduced from 0.023 to 0.046 W/kg using the anatomical definition to ≤0.001 W/kg using the joint center definition in the kinetic method (95.56-98.39% reduction). Power due to relative segment endpoint displacement in segmental power analyses is substantial and should be considered in analyzing energetic flow into and between segments. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Metabolic network flux analysis for engineering plant systems.

PubMed

Shachar-Hill, Yair

2013-04-01

Metabolic network flux analysis (NFA) tools have proven themselves to be powerful aids to metabolic engineering of microbes by providing quantitative insights into the flows of material and energy through cellular systems. The development and application of NFA tools to plant systems has advanced in recent years and are yielding significant insights and testable predictions. Plants present substantial opportunities for the practical application of NFA but they also pose serious challenges related to the complexity of plant metabolic networks and to deficiencies in our knowledge of their structure and regulation. By considering the tools available and selected examples, this article attempts to assess where and how NFA is most likely to have a real impact on plant biotechnology. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Phase Grouping of Larmor Electrons by a Synchronous Wave in Controlled Magnetrons

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kazakevich, G.; Johnson, R.; Lebedev, V.

A simplified analytical model based on the charge drift approximation has been developed. It considers the resonant interaction of the synchronous wave with the flow of Larmor electrons in a magnetron. The model predicts stable coherent generation of the tube above and below the threshold of self-excitation. This occurs if the magnetron is driven by a sufficient resonant injected signal (up to -10 dB). The model substantiates precise stability, high efficiency and low noise at the range of the magnetron power control over 10 dB by variation of the magnetron current. The model and the verifying experiments with 2.45 GHz,more » 1 kW magnetrons are discussed.« less

Comparisons of selected laser beam power missions to conventionally powered missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bozek, John M.; Oleson, Steven R.; Landis, Geoffrey A.; Stavnes, Mark W.

1993-01-01

Earth-based laser sites beaming laser power to space assets have shown benefits over competing power system concepts for specific missions. Missions analyzed in this report that show benefits of laser beam power are low Earth orbit (LEO) to geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) transfer, LEO to low lunar orbit (LLO) cargo missions, and lunar-base power. Both laser- and solar-powered orbit-transfer vehicles (OTV's) make a 'tug' concept viable, which substantially reduces cumulative initial mass to LEO in comparison to chemical propulsion concepts. Lunar cargo missions utilizing laser electric propulsion from Earth-orbit to LLO show substantial mass saving to LEO over chemical propulsion systems. Lunar-base power system options were compared on a landed-mass basis. Photovoltaics with regenerative fuel cells, reactor-based systems, and laser-based systems were sized to meet a generic lunar-base power profile. A laser-based system begins to show landed mass benefits over reactor-based systems when proposed production facilities on the Moon require power levels greater than approximately 300 kWe. Benefit/cost ratios of laser power systems for an OTV, both to GEO and LLO, and for a lunar base were calculated to be greater than 1.

An analytics approach to designing patient centered medical homes.

PubMed

Ajorlou, Saeede; Shams, Issac; Yang, Kai

2015-03-01

Recently the patient centered medical home (PCMH) model has become a popular team based approach focused on delivering more streamlined care to patients. In current practices of medical homes, a clinical based prediction frame is recommended because it can help match the portfolio capacity of PCMH teams with the actual load generated by a set of patients. Without such balances in clinical supply and demand, issues such as excessive under and over utilization of physicians, long waiting time for receiving the appropriate treatment, and non-continuity of care will eliminate many advantages of the medical home strategy. In this paper, by using the hierarchical generalized linear model with multivariate responses, we develop a clinical workload prediction model for care portfolio demands in a Bayesian framework. The model allows for heterogeneous variances and unstructured covariance matrices for nested random effects that arise through complex hierarchical care systems. We show that using a multivariate approach substantially enhances the precision of workload predictions at both primary and non primary care levels. We also demonstrate that care demands depend not only on patient demographics but also on other utilization factors, such as length of stay. Our analyses of a recent data from Veteran Health Administration further indicate that risk adjustment for patient health conditions can considerably improve the prediction power of the model.

A Hybrid Physics-Based Data-Driven Approach for Point-Particle Force Modeling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moore, Chandler; Akiki, Georges; Balachandar, S.

2017-11-01

This study improves upon the physics-based pairwise interaction extended point-particle (PIEP) model. The PIEP model leverages a physical framework to predict fluid mediated interactions between solid particles. While the PIEP model is a powerful tool, its pairwise assumption leads to increased error in flows with high particle volume fractions. To reduce this error, a regression algorithm is used to model the differences between the current PIEP model's predictions and the results of direct numerical simulations (DNS) for an array of monodisperse solid particles subjected to various flow conditions. The resulting statistical model and the physical PIEP model are superimposed to construct a hybrid, physics-based data-driven PIEP model. It must be noted that the performance of a pure data-driven approach without the model-form provided by the physical PIEP model is substantially inferior. The hybrid model's predictive capabilities are analyzed using more DNS. In every case tested, the hybrid PIEP model's prediction are more accurate than those of physical PIEP model. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellowship Program under Grant No. DGE-1315138 and the U.S. DOE, NNSA, ASC Program, as a Cooperative Agreement under Contract No. DE-NA0002378.

Predicting protein structures with a multiplayer online game.

PubMed

Cooper, Seth; Khatib, Firas; Treuille, Adrien; Barbero, Janos; Lee, Jeehyung; Beenen, Michael; Leaver-Fay, Andrew; Baker, David; Popović, Zoran; Players, Foldit

2010-08-05

People exert large amounts of problem-solving effort playing computer games. Simple image- and text-recognition tasks have been successfully 'crowd-sourced' through games, but it is not clear if more complex scientific problems can be solved with human-directed computing. Protein structure prediction is one such problem: locating the biologically relevant native conformation of a protein is a formidable computational challenge given the very large size of the search space. Here we describe Foldit, a multiplayer online game that engages non-scientists in solving hard prediction problems. Foldit players interact with protein structures using direct manipulation tools and user-friendly versions of algorithms from the Rosetta structure prediction methodology, while they compete and collaborate to optimize the computed energy. We show that top-ranked Foldit players excel at solving challenging structure refinement problems in which substantial backbone rearrangements are necessary to achieve the burial of hydrophobic residues. Players working collaboratively develop a rich assortment of new strategies and algorithms; unlike computational approaches, they explore not only the conformational space but also the space of possible search strategies. The integration of human visual problem-solving and strategy development capabilities with traditional computational algorithms through interactive multiplayer games is a powerful new approach to solving computationally-limited scientific problems.

Predicting crystal structures and properties of matter under extreme conditions via quantum mechanics: The pressure is on

DOE PAGES

Zurek, Eva; Grochala, Wojciech

2014-11-27

Experimental studies of compressed matter are now routinely conducted at pressures exceeding 1 mln atm (100 GPa) and occasionally they even surpass 10 mln atm (1 TPa). The structure and properties of solids that have been so significantly squeezed differ considerably from those know at ambient pressures (1 atm), often times leading to new and unexpected physics. Chemical reactivity is also substantially altered in the extreme pressure regime. In this feature paper we describe how synergy between theory and experiment can pave the road towards new experimental discoveries. Because chemical rules-of-thumb established at 1 atm often fail to predict themore » structures of solids under high pressure, automated crystal structure prediction (CSP) methods have been increasingly employed. After outlining the most important CSP techniques, we showcase a few examples from the recent literature that exemplify just how useful theory can be as an aid in the interpretation of experimental data, describe exciting theoretical predictions that are guiding experiment, and discuss when the computational methods that are currently routinely employed fail. Lastly, we forecast important problems that will be targeted by theory as theoretical methods undergo rapid development, along with the simultaneous increase of computational power.« less

Validation of Field Methods to Assess Body Fat Percentage in Elite Youth Soccer Players.

PubMed

Munguia-Izquierdo, Diego; Suarez-Arrones, Luis; Di Salvo, Valter; Paredes-Hernandez, Victor; Alcazar, Julian; Ara, Ignacio; Kreider, Richard; Mendez-Villanueva, Alberto

2018-05-01

This study determined the most effective field method for quantifying body fat percentage in male elite youth soccer players and developed prediction equations based on anthropometric variables. Forty-four male elite-standard youth soccer players aged 16.3-18.0 years underwent body fat percentage assessments, including bioelectrical impedance analysis and the calculation of various skinfold-based prediction equations. Dual X-ray absorptiometry provided a criterion measure of body fat percentage. Correlation coefficients, bias, limits of agreement, and differences were used as validity measures, and regression analyses were used to develop soccer-specific prediction equations. The equations from Sarria et al. (1998) and Durnin & Rahaman (1967) reached very large correlations and the lowest biases, and they reached neither the practically worthwhile difference nor the substantial difference between methods. The new youth soccer-specific skinfold equation included a combination of triceps and supraspinale skinfolds. None of the practical methods compared in this study are adequate for estimating body fat percentage in male elite youth soccer players, except for the equations from Sarria et al. (1998) and Durnin & Rahaman (1967). The new youth soccer-specific equation calculated in this investigation is the only field method specifically developed and validated in elite male players, and it shows potentially good predictive power. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Validation of finite element and boundary element methods for predicting structural vibration and radiated noise

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Wu, X. F.; Oswald, Fred B.

1992-01-01

Analytical and experimental validation of methods to predict structural vibration and radiated noise are presented. A rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker was used as a vibrating structure. Combined finite element method (FEM) and boundary element method (BEM) models of the apparatus were used to predict the noise radiated from the box. The FEM was used to predict the vibration, and the surface vibration was used as input to the BEM to predict the sound intensity and sound power. Vibration predicted by the FEM model was validated by experimental modal analysis. Noise predicted by the BEM was validated by sound intensity measurements. Three types of results are presented for the total radiated sound power: (1) sound power predicted by the BEM modeling using vibration data measured on the surface of the box; (2) sound power predicted by the FEM/BEM model; and (3) sound power measured by a sound intensity scan. The sound power predicted from the BEM model using measured vibration data yields an excellent prediction of radiated noise. The sound power predicted by the combined FEM/BEM model also gives a good prediction of radiated noise except for a shift of the natural frequencies that are due to limitations in the FEM model.

Expanded modeling of temperature-dependent dielectric properties for microwave thermal ablation

PubMed Central

Ji, Zhen; Brace, Christopher L

2011-01-01

Microwaves are a promising source for thermal tumor ablation due to their ability to rapidly heat dispersive biological tissues, often to temperatures in excess of 100 °C. At these high temperatures, tissue dielectric properties change rapidly and, thus, so do the characteristics of energy delivery. Precise knowledge of how tissue dielectric properties change during microwave heating promises to facilitate more accurate simulation of device performance and helps optimize device geometry and energy delivery parameters. In this study, we measured the dielectric properties of liver tissue during high-temperature microwave heating. The resulting data were compiled into either a sigmoidal function of temperature or an integration of the time–temperature curve for both relative permittivity and effective conductivity. Coupled electromagnetic–thermal simulations of heating produced by a single monopole antenna using the new models were then compared to simulations with existing linear and static models, and experimental temperatures in liver tissue. The new sigmoidal temperature-dependent model more accurately predicted experimental temperatures when compared to temperature–time integrated or existing models. The mean percent differences between simulated and experimental temperatures over all times were 4.2% for sigmoidal, 10.1% for temperature–time integration, 27.0% for linear and 32.8% for static models at the antenna input power of 50 W. Correcting for tissue contraction improved agreement for powers up to 75 W. The sigmoidal model also predicted substantial changes in heating pattern due to dehydration. We can conclude from these studies that a sigmoidal model of tissue dielectric properties improves prediction of experimental results. More work is needed to refine and generalize this model. PMID:21791728

Importance of early weight changes to predict long-term weight gain during psychotropic drug treatment.

PubMed

Vandenberghe, Frederik; Gholam-Rezaee, Mehdi; Saigí-Morgui, Núria; Delacrétaz, Aurélie; Choong, Eva; Solida-Tozzi, Alessandra; Kolly, Stéphane; Thonney, Jacques; Gallo, Sylfa Fassassi; Hedjal, Ahmed; Ambresin, Anne-Emmanuelle; von Gunten, Armin; Conus, Philippe; Eap, Chin B

2015-11-01

Psychotropic drugs can induce substantial weight gain, particularly during the first 6 months of treatment. The authors aimed to determine the potential predictive power of an early weight gain after the introduction of weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs on long-term weight gain. Data were obtained from a 1-year longitudinal study ongoing since 2007 including 351 psychiatric (ICD-10) patients, with metabolic parameters monitored (baseline and/or 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 months) and with compliance ascertained. International Diabetes Federation and World Health Organization definitions were used to define metabolic syndrome and obesity, respectively. Prevalences of metabolic syndrome and obesity were 22% and 17%, respectively, at baseline and 32% and 24% after 1 year. Receiver operating characteristic analyses indicated that an early weight gain > 5% after a period of 1 month is the best predictor for important long-term weight gain (≥ 15% after 3 months: sensitivity, 67%; specificity, 88%; ≥ 20% after 12 months: sensitivity, 47%; specificity, 89%). This analysis identified most patients (97% for 3 months, 93% for 12 months) who had weight gain ≤ 5% after 1 month as continuing to have a moderate weight gain after 3 and 12 months. Its predictive power was confirmed by fitting a longitudinal multivariate model (difference between groups in 1 year of 6.4% weight increase as compared to baseline, P = .0001). Following prescription of weight gain-inducing psychotropic drugs, a 5% threshold for weight gain after 1 month should raise clinician concerns about weight-controlling strategies. © Copyright 2015 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Increasing horizontal resolution in numerical weather prediction and climate simulations: illusion or panacea?

PubMed

Wedi, Nils P

2014-06-28

The steady path of doubling the global horizontal resolution approximately every 8 years in numerical weather prediction (NWP) at the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts may be substantially altered with emerging novel computing architectures. It coincides with the need to appropriately address and determine forecast uncertainty with increasing resolution, in particular, when convective-scale motions start to be resolved. Blunt increases in the model resolution will quickly become unaffordable and may not lead to improved NWP forecasts. Consequently, there is a need to accordingly adjust proven numerical techniques. An informed decision on the modelling strategy for harnessing exascale, massively parallel computing power thus also requires a deeper understanding of the sensitivity to uncertainty--for each part of the model--and ultimately a deeper understanding of multi-scale interactions in the atmosphere and their numerical realization in ultra-high-resolution NWP and climate simulations. This paper explores opportunities for substantial increases in the forecast efficiency by judicious adjustment of the formal accuracy or relative resolution in the spectral and physical space. One path is to reduce the formal accuracy by which the spectral transforms are computed. The other pathway explores the importance of the ratio used for the horizontal resolution in gridpoint space versus wavenumbers in spectral space. This is relevant for both high-resolution simulations as well as ensemble-based uncertainty estimation. © 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

10 CFR 100.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... approval requirements for proposed sites for stationary power and testing reactors subject to part 50 or part 52 of this chapter. (b) There exists a substantial base of knowledge regarding power reactor... approach incorporates the appropriate standards and criteria for approval of stationary power and testing...

Hurricane destructive power predictions based on historical storm and sea surface temperature data.

PubMed

Bogen, Kenneth T; Jones, Edwin D; Fischer, Larry E

2007-12-01

Forecasting destructive hurricane potential is complicated by substantial, unexplained intraannual variation in storm-specific power dissipation index (PDI, or integrated third power of wind speed), and interannual variation in annual accumulated PDI (APDI). A growing controversy concerns the recent hypothesis that the clearly positive trend in North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) sea surface temperature (SST) since 1970 explains increased hurricane intensities over this period, and so implies ominous PDI and APDI growth as global warming continues. To test this "SST hypothesis" and examine its quantitative implications, a combination of statistical and probabilistic methods were applied to National Hurricane Center HURDAT best-track data on NAO hurricanes during 1880-2002, and corresponding National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstruction SST estimates. Notably, hurricane behavior was compared to corresponding hurricane-specific (i.e., spatiotemporally linked) SST; previous similar comparisons considered only SST averaged over large NAO regions. Contrary to the SST hypothesis, SST was found to vary in a monthly pattern inconsistent with that of corresponding PDI, and to be at best weakly associated with PDI or APDI despite strong correlation with corresponding mean latitude (R(2)= 0.55) or with combined mean location and a approximately 90-year periodic trend (R(2)= 0.70). Over the last century, the lower 75% of APDIs appear randomly sampled from a nearly uniform distribution, and the upper 25% of APDIs from a nearly lognormal distribution. From the latter distribution, a baseline (SST-independent) stochastic model was derived predicting that over the next half century, APDI will not likely exceed its maximum value over the last half century by more than a factor of 1.5. This factor increased to 2 using a baseline model modified to assume SST-dependence conditioned on an upper bound of the increasing NAO SST trend observed since 1970. An additional model was developed that predicts PDI statistics conditional on APDI. These PDI and APDI models can be used to estimate upper bounds on indices of hurricane power likely to be realized over the next century, under divergent assumptions regarding SST influence.

30 CFR 75.1710 - Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric face equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-07-01

...-powered and electric face equipment, including shuttle cars, be provided with substantially constructed... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2013-07-01 2013-07-01 false Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric... Miscellaneous § 75.1710 Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric face equipment. In any coal mine where the...

30 CFR 75.1710 - Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric face equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-07-01

...-powered and electric face equipment, including shuttle cars, be provided with substantially constructed... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2012-07-01 2012-07-01 false Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric... Miscellaneous § 75.1710 Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric face equipment. In any coal mine where the...

30 CFR 75.1710 - Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric face equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-07-01

...-powered and electric face equipment, including shuttle cars, be provided with substantially constructed... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2014-07-01 2014-07-01 false Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric... Miscellaneous § 75.1710 Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric face equipment. In any coal mine where the...

26 CFR 1.675-1 - Administrative powers.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Administrative powers. 1.675-1 Section 1.675-1...) INCOME TAXES Grantors and Others Treated As Substantial Owners § 1.675-1 Administrative powers. (a... the trust. If a grantor retains a power to amend the administrative provisions of a trust instrument...

30 CFR 56.12008 - Insulation and fittings for power wires and cables.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Insulation and fittings for power wires and... MINES Electricity § 56.12008 Insulation and fittings for power wires and cables. Power wires and cables... insulated wires, other than cables, pass through metal frames, the holes shall be substantially bushed with...

30 CFR 56.12008 - Insulation and fittings for power wires and cables.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Insulation and fittings for power wires and... MINES Electricity § 56.12008 Insulation and fittings for power wires and cables. Power wires and cables... insulated wires, other than cables, pass through metal frames, the holes shall be substantially bushed with...

30 CFR 75.1710 - Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric face equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

...-powered and electric face equipment, including shuttle cars, be provided with substantially constructed... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2011-07-01 2011-07-01 false Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric... Miscellaneous § 75.1710 Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric face equipment. In any coal mine where the...

30 CFR 75.1710 - Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric face equipment.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

...-powered and electric face equipment, including shuttle cars, be provided with substantially constructed... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric... Miscellaneous § 75.1710 Canopies or cabs; diesel-powered and electric face equipment. In any coal mine where the...

Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power Using a Hybrid Wavelet-ARMA-NARX Prediction Method

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Nazaripouya, Hamidreza; Wang, Yubo; Chu, Chi-Cheng

This paper proposes a new hybrid method for super short-term solar power prediction. Solar output power usually has a complex, nonstationary, and nonlinear characteristic due to intermittent and time varying behavior of solar radiance. In addition, solar power dynamics is fast and is inertia less. An accurate super short-time prediction is required to compensate for the fluctuations and reduce the impact of solar power penetration on the power system. The objective is to predict one step-ahead solar power generation based only on historical solar power time series data. The proposed method incorporates discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA)more » models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), while the RNN architecture is based on Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX). The wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the solar power time series into a set of richer-behaved forming series for prediction. ARMA model is employed as a linear predictor while NARX is used as a nonlinear pattern recognition tool to estimate and compensate the error of wavelet-ARMA prediction. The proposed method is applied to the data captured from UCLA solar PV panels and the results are compared with some of the common and most recent solar power prediction methods. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show a considerable improvement in the prediction precision.« less

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction.

PubMed

Gao, Xiang-Ming; Yang, Shi-Feng; Pan, San-Bo

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization.

Optimal Parameter Selection for Support Vector Machine Based on Artificial Bee Colony Algorithm: A Case Study of Grid-Connected PV System Power Prediction

PubMed Central

2017-01-01

Predicting the output power of photovoltaic system with nonstationarity and randomness, an output power prediction model for grid-connected PV systems is proposed based on empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector machine (SVM) optimized with an artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm. First, according to the weather forecast data sets on the prediction date, the time series data of output power on a similar day with 15-minute intervals are built. Second, the time series data of the output power are decomposed into a series of components, including some intrinsic mode components IMFn and a trend component Res, at different scales using EMD. The corresponding SVM prediction model is established for each IMF component and trend component, and the SVM model parameters are optimized with the artificial bee colony algorithm. Finally, the prediction results of each model are reconstructed, and the predicted values of the output power of the grid-connected PV system can be obtained. The prediction model is tested with actual data, and the results show that the power prediction model based on the EMD and ABC-SVM has a faster calculation speed and higher prediction accuracy than do the single SVM prediction model and the EMD-SVM prediction model without optimization. PMID:28912803

Resistance of Silicon Nitride Turbine Components to Erosion and Hot Corrosion/oxidation Attack

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Strangmen, Thomas E.; Fox, Dennis S.

1994-01-01

Silicon nitride turbine components are under intensive development by AlliedSignal to enable a new generation of higher power density auxiliary power systems. In order to be viable in the intended applications, silicon nitride turbine airfoils must be designed for survival in aggressive oxidizing combustion gas environments. Erosive and corrosive damage to ceramic airfoils from ingested sand and sea salt must be avoided. Recent engine test experience demonstrated that NT154 silicon nitride turbine vanes have exceptional resistance to sand erosion, relative to superalloys used in production engines. Similarly, NT154 silicon nitride has excellent resistance to oxidation in the temperature range of interest - up to 1400 C. Hot corrosion attack of superalloy gas turbine components is well documented. While hot corrosion from ingested sea salt will attack silicon nitride substantially less than the superalloys being replaced in initial engine applications, this degradation has the potential to limit component lives in advanced engine applications. Hot corrosion adversely affects the strength of silicon nitride in the 850 to 1300 C range. Since unacceptable reductions in strength must be rapidly identified and avoided, AlliedSignal and the NASA Lewis Research Center have pioneered the development of an environmental life prediction model for silicon nitride turbine components. Strength retention in flexure specimens following 1 to 3300 hour exposures to high temperature oxidation and hot corrosion has been measured and used to calibrate the life prediction model. Predicted component life is dependent upon engine design (stress, temperature, pressure, fuel/air ratio, gas velocity, and inlet air filtration), mission usage (fuel sulfur content, location (salt in air), and times at duty cycle power points), and material parameters. Preliminary analyses indicate that the hot corrosion resistance of NT154 silicon nitride is adequate for AlliedSignal's initial engine applications. Protective coatings and/or inlet air filtration may be required to achieve required ceramic component lives in more aggressive environments.

Method and apparatus for lead-unity-lag electric power generation system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ganev, Evgeni (Inventor); Warr, William (Inventor); Salam, Mohamed (Arif) (Inventor)

2013-01-01

A method employing a lead-unity-lag adjustment on a power generation system is disclosed. The method may include calculating a unity power factor point and adjusting system parameters to shift a power factor angle to substantially match an operating power angle creating a new unity power factor point. The method may then define operation parameters for a high reactance permanent magnet machine based on the adjusted power level.

[Value of ultrasonography to predict the endometrial cancer in postmenopausal bleeding].

PubMed

Bouzid, A; Ayachi, A; Mourali, M

2015-10-01

To build mathematical models for evaluating the individual risk of endometrial malignancy in women with postmenopausal bleeding and a thick endometrium using clinical data, sonographic endometrial thickness and power Doppler ultrasound findings. A total of 117 patients underwent transvaginal two-dimensional gray-scale and power Doppler ultrasound examination of the endometrium before getting endometrial biopsy. Inclusion criteria were post-menopausal bleeding and a thick endometrium greater than 5mm. The ultrasound image showing the most vascularized section through the endometrium as assessed by power Doppler was frozen to estimate endometrial thickness and features. The vascularity index was calculated using computer software. A structured history was taken to collect clinical information. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to create mathematical models to predict endometrial malignancy. There were 31 (26.4%) malignant and 86 (74.6%) benign endometria… Women with a malignant endometrium were older (median age 61 vs 56 years, P=0.036) and had a thicker endometrium (median thickness 18.8mm vs 12.5; P=0.002) and higher values for vascularity index. When using only clinical data to build a model for estimating the risk of endometrial malignancy, a model including the variables age had the largest area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC), with a value of 0.69 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.59-0.79). A model including age and endometrial thickness had an AUC of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.50-0.96), and one including age, endometrial thickness and vascularity index had an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.62-0.97). Using a risk cut-off of 12%, the latter model had sensitivity 89%, specificity 74%, positive likelihood ratio 3.42 and negative likelihood ratio 0.14. Postmenopausal bleeding is a frequent cause of consultation in gynecological particularly in peri- or post-menopausal period. They are the main alarm sign of endometrial carcinoma. Vaginal ultrasound has become the "gold standard" in the initial exploration. It is a powerful tool to estimate the individual risk of malignancy in symptomatic postmenopausal women in order to optimize the management. The diagnostic performance of models predicting endometrial cancer increases substantially when sonographic and power Doppler information are added to clinical variables. This model seems to be clinically useful but need to be prospectively validated. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Cumulative stress and substantiated maltreatment: the importance of caregiver vulnerability and adult partner violence.

PubMed

Wekerle, Christine; Wall, Anne-Marie; Leung, Eman; Trocmé, Nico

2007-04-01

Our goal is to assess the effect of caregiver vulnerabilities, singly and in combination, on the substantiation of child abuse (physical, sexual) and neglect, while controlling for relevant background variables. We test the moderator role of adult partner violence in qualifying the relationship between caregiver vulnerabilities and maltreatment substantiation. Secondary analyses of the 1998 Canadian Incidence Study of Reported Child Maltreatment (CIS) are used to predict child protective service investigation substantiation versus non-substantiation from a range of caregiver vulnerability factors. Involvement in partner violence was examined as a moderator in the relation between caregiver vulnerabilities and maltreatment substantiation. The CIS is an epidemiological survey of first-reported cases to child protective services, using a random sample of child welfare agencies across Canada. Child welfare workers completed a research form on the child, primary caregiver, family, perpetrator, severity and type of maltreatment, as well as services and court outcomes. All maltreatment classifications were assigned according to the Canadian legal definition of child abuse and neglect. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses were used, with stepped entry of: (1) demographic factors, socioeconomic disadvantage, and caregiver's own history of maltreatment; (2) caregiver vulnerability factors; (3) involvement in partner violence; (4) the interaction between caregiver vulnerability and partner violence. Caregiver substance abuse was found to be the single most potent kind of caregiver vulnerability in predicting maltreatment substantiation. When the total number of vulnerabilities was used as the predictor, prediction across all types of maltreatment increased, especially for substantiated neglect. Analyses also showed that the presence of partner violence in the home exacerbated the effect of caregiver vulnerability on substantiation. The total number of caregiver vulnerabilities was the best predictor of the substantiation of child abuse and neglect. This relationship was moderated by the existence of partner violence: high caregiver vulnerability and high partner violence increased the likelihood of substantiation versus non-substantiation. These results suggest that caregiver issues should be considered in tandem with partner relationships. Among child welfare cases, caregiver vulnerability and partner violence are critical targets for child maltreatment prevention and early child protective services intervention.

A record-based case-control study of natural background radiation and the incidence of childhood leukaemia and other cancers in Great Britain during 1980-2006.

PubMed

Kendall, G M; Little, M P; Wakeford, R; Bunch, K J; Miles, J C H; Vincent, T J; Meara, J R; Murphy, M F G

2013-01-01

We conducted a large record-based case-control study testing associations between childhood cancer and natural background radiation. Cases (27,447) born and diagnosed in Great Britain during 1980-2006 and matched cancer-free controls (36,793) were from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours. Radiation exposures were estimated for mother's residence at the child's birth from national databases, using the County District mean for gamma rays, and a predictive map based on domestic measurements grouped by geological boundaries for radon. There was 12% excess relative risk (ERR) (95% CI 3, 22; two-sided P=0.01) of childhood leukaemia per millisievert of cumulative red bone marrow dose from gamma radiation; the analogous association for radon was not significant, ERR 3% (95% CI -4, 11; P=0.35). Associations for other childhood cancers were not significant for either exposure. Excess risk was insensitive to adjustment for measures of socio-economic status. The statistically significant leukaemia risk reported in this reasonably powered study (power ~50%) is consistent with high-dose rate predictions. Substantial bias is unlikely, and we cannot identify mechanisms by which confounding might plausibly account for the association, which we regard as likely to be causal. The study supports the extrapolation of high-dose rate risk models to protracted exposures at natural background exposure levels.

High-Amplitude Atlantic Hurricanes Produce Disparate Mortality in Small, Low-Income Countries.

PubMed

Dresser, Caleb; Allison, Jeroan; Broach, John; Smith, Mary-Elise; Milsten, Andrew

2016-12-01

Hurricanes cause substantial mortality, especially in developing nations, and climate science predicts that powerful hurricanes will increase in frequency during the coming decades. This study examined the association of wind speed and national economic conditions with mortality in a large sample of hurricane events in small countries. Economic, meteorological, and fatality data for 149 hurricane events in 16 nations between 1958 and 2011 were analyzed. Mortality rate was modeled with negative binomial regression implemented by generalized estimating equations to account for variable population exposure, sequence of storm events, exposure of multiple islands to the same storm, and nonlinear associations. Low-amplitude storms caused little mortality regardless of economic status. Among high-amplitude storms (Saffir-Simpson category 4 or 5), expected mortality rate was 0.72 deaths per 100,000 people (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.16-1.28) for nations in the highest tertile of per capita gross domestic product (GDP) compared with 25.93 deaths per 100,000 people (95% CI: 13.30-38.55) for nations with low per capita GDP. Lower per capita GDP and higher wind speeds were associated with greater mortality rates in small countries. Excessive fatalities occurred when powerful storms struck resource-poor nations. Predictions of increasing storm amplitude over time suggest increasing disparity between death rates unless steps are taken to modify the risk profiles of poor nations. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:832-837).

Tracking changing environments: innovators are fast, but not flexible learners.

PubMed

Griffin, Andrea S; Guez, David; Lermite, Françoise; Patience, Madeleine

2013-01-01

Behavioural innovations are increasingly thought to provide a rich source of phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary change. Innovation propensity shows substantial variation across avian taxa and provides an adaptive mechanism by which behaviour is flexibly adjusted to changing environmental conditions. Here, we tested for the first time the prediction that inter-individual variation in innovation propensity is equally a measure of behavioural flexibility. We used Indian mynas, Sturnus tristis, a highly successful worldwide invader. Results revealed that mynas that solved an extractive foraging task more quickly learnt to discriminate between a cue that predicted food, and one that did not more quickly. However, fast innovators were slower to change their behaviour when the significance of the food cues changed. This unexpected finding appears at odds with the well-established view that avian taxa with larger brains relative to their body size, and therefore greater neural processing power, are both faster, and more flexible learners. We speculate that the existence of this relationship across taxa can be reconciled with its absence within species by assuming that fast, innovative learners and non innovative, slow, flexible learners constitute two separate individual strategies, which are both underpinned by enhanced neural processing power. This idea is consistent with the recent proposal that individuals may differ consistently in 'cognitive style', differentially trading off speed against accuracy in cognitive tasks.

Application of Multi-Threshold NULL Convention Logic to Adaptive Beamforming Circuits for Ultra-Low Power

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-03-31

Abstract: With the decrease of transistor feature sizes into the ultra-deep submicron range, leakage power becomes an important design challenge for...MTNCL design showed substantial improvements in terms of active energy and leakage power compared to the equivalent synchronous design. Keywords...switching could use a large portion of power. Additionally, leakage power has come to dominate power consumption as process sizes shrink. Adaptive

Poly-Omic Prediction of Complex Traits: OmicKriging

PubMed Central

Wheeler, Heather E.; Aquino-Michaels, Keston; Gamazon, Eric R.; Trubetskoy, Vassily V.; Dolan, M. Eileen; Huang, R. Stephanie; Cox, Nancy J.; Im, Hae Kyung

2014-01-01

High-confidence prediction of complex traits such as disease risk or drug response is an ultimate goal of personalized medicine. Although genome-wide association studies have discovered thousands of well-replicated polymorphisms associated with a broad spectrum of complex traits, the combined predictive power of these associations for any given trait is generally too low to be of clinical relevance. We propose a novel systems approach to complex trait prediction, which leverages and integrates similarity in genetic, transcriptomic, or other omics-level data. We translate the omic similarity into phenotypic similarity using a method called Kriging, commonly used in geostatistics and machine learning. Our method called OmicKriging emphasizes the use of a wide variety of systems-level data, such as those increasingly made available by comprehensive surveys of the genome, transcriptome, and epigenome, for complex trait prediction. Furthermore, our OmicKriging framework allows easy integration of prior information on the function of subsets of omics-level data from heterogeneous sources without the sometimes heavy computational burden of Bayesian approaches. Using seven disease datasets from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium (WTCCC), we show that OmicKriging allows simple integration of sparse and highly polygenic components yielding comparable performance at a fraction of the computing time of a recently published Bayesian sparse linear mixed model method. Using a cellular growth phenotype, we show that integrating mRNA and microRNA expression data substantially increases performance over either dataset alone. Using clinical statin response, we show improved prediction over existing methods. PMID:24799323

Local Fitness Landscapes Predict Yeast Evolutionary Dynamics in Directionally Changing Environments.

PubMed

Gorter, Florien A; Aarts, Mark G M; Zwaan, Bas J; de Visser, J Arjan G M

2018-01-01

The fitness landscape is a concept that is widely used for understanding and predicting evolutionary adaptation. The topography of the fitness landscape depends critically on the environment, with potentially far-reaching consequences for evolution under changing conditions. However, few studies have assessed directly how empirical fitness landscapes change across conditions, or validated the predicted consequences of such change. We previously evolved replicate yeast populations in the presence of either gradually increasing, or constant high, concentrations of the heavy metals cadmium (Cd), nickel (Ni), and zinc (Zn), and analyzed their phenotypic and genomic changes. Here, we reconstructed the local fitness landscapes underlying adaptation to each metal by deleting all repeatedly mutated genes both by themselves and in combination. Fitness assays revealed that the height, and/or shape, of each local fitness landscape changed considerably across metal concentrations, with distinct qualitative differences between unconditionally (Cd) and conditionally toxic metals (Ni and Zn). This change in topography had particularly crucial consequences in the case of Ni, where a substantial part of the individual mutational fitness effects changed in sign across concentrations. Based on the Ni landscape analyses, we made several predictions about which mutations had been selected when during the evolution experiment. Deep sequencing of population samples from different time points generally confirmed these predictions, demonstrating the power of landscape reconstruction analyses for understanding and ultimately predicting evolutionary dynamics, even under complex scenarios of environmental change. Copyright © 2018 by the Genetics Society of America.

Selenide isotope generator for the Galileo mission. SIG/Galileo contract compliance power prediction technique

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hammel, T.E.; Srinivas, V.

1978-11-01

This initial definition of the power degradation prediction technique outlines a model for predicting SIG/Galileo mean EOM power using component test data and data from a module power degradation demonstration test program. (LCL)

Observations of single-pass ion cyclotron heating in a trans-sonic flowing plasma

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bering, E. A.; Díaz, F. R. Chang; Squire, J. P.; Glover, T. W.; Carter, M. D.; McCaskill, G. E.; Longmier, B. W.; Brukardt, M. S.; Chancery, W. J.; Jacobson, V. T.

2010-04-01

The VAriable Specific Impulse Magnetoplasma Rocket (VASIMR®) is a high power electric spacecraft propulsion system, capable of Isp/thrust modulation at constant power [F. R. Chang Díaz et al., Proceedings of the 39th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting and Exhibit, Reno, NV, 8-11 Jan. 2001]. The VASIMR® uses a helicon discharge to generate plasma. This plasma is energized by an rf booster stage that uses left hand polarized slow mode waves launched from the high field side of the ion cyclotron resonance. In the experiments reported in this paper, the booster uses 2-4 MHz waves with up to 50 kW of power. This process is similar to the ion cyclotron heating (ICH) in tokamaks, but in the VASIMR® the ions only pass through the resonance region once. The rapid absorption of ion cyclotron waves has been predicted in recent theoretical studies. These theoretical predictions have been supported with several independent measurements in this paper. The single-pass ICH produced a substantial increase in ion velocity. Pitch angle distribution studies showed that this increase took place in the resonance region where the ion cyclotron frequency was roughly equal to the frequency on the injected rf waves. Downstream of the resonance region the perpendicular velocity boost should be converted to axial flow velocity through the conservation of the first adiabatic invariant as the magnetic field decreases in the exhaust region of the VASIMR®. This paper will review all of the single-pass ICH ion acceleration data obtained using deuterium in the first VASIMR® physics demonstrator machine, the VX-50. During these experiments, the available power to the helicon ionization stage increased from 3 to 20+ kW. The increased plasma density produced increased plasma loading of the ICH coupler. Starting with an initial demonstration of single-pass ion cyclotron acceleration, the experiments demonstrate significant improvements in coupler efficiency and in ion heating efficiency. In deuterium plasma, ≥80% efficient absorption of 20 kW of ICH input power was achieved. No clear evidence for power limiting instabilities in the exhaust beam has been observed.

Image analysis and machine learning in digital pathology: Challenges and opportunities.

PubMed

Madabhushi, Anant; Lee, George

2016-10-01

With the rise in whole slide scanner technology, large numbers of tissue slides are being scanned and represented and archived digitally. While digital pathology has substantial implications for telepathology, second opinions, and education there are also huge research opportunities in image computing with this new source of "big data". It is well known that there is fundamental prognostic data embedded in pathology images. The ability to mine "sub-visual" image features from digital pathology slide images, features that may not be visually discernible by a pathologist, offers the opportunity for better quantitative modeling of disease appearance and hence possibly improved prediction of disease aggressiveness and patient outcome. However the compelling opportunities in precision medicine offered by big digital pathology data come with their own set of computational challenges. Image analysis and computer assisted detection and diagnosis tools previously developed in the context of radiographic images are woefully inadequate to deal with the data density in high resolution digitized whole slide images. Additionally there has been recent substantial interest in combining and fusing radiologic imaging and proteomics and genomics based measurements with features extracted from digital pathology images for better prognostic prediction of disease aggressiveness and patient outcome. Again there is a paucity of powerful tools for combining disease specific features that manifest across multiple different length scales. The purpose of this review is to discuss developments in computational image analysis tools for predictive modeling of digital pathology images from a detection, segmentation, feature extraction, and tissue classification perspective. We discuss the emergence of new handcrafted feature approaches for improved predictive modeling of tissue appearance and also review the emergence of deep learning schemes for both object detection and tissue classification. We also briefly review some of the state of the art in fusion of radiology and pathology images and also combining digital pathology derived image measurements with molecular "omics" features for better predictive modeling. The review ends with a brief discussion of some of the technical and computational challenges to be overcome and reflects on future opportunities for the quantitation of histopathology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impact of post-Born lensing on the CMB

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pratten, Geraint; Lewis, Antony, E-mail: G.Pratten@Sussex.ac.uk, E-mail: antony@cosmologist.info

Lensing of the CMB is affected by post-Born lensing, producing corrections to the convergence power spectrum and introducing field rotation. We show numerically that the lensing convergence power spectrum is affected at the ∼< 0.2% level on accessible scales, and that this correction and the field rotation are negligible for observations with arcminute beam and noise levels ∼> 1 μK arcmin. The field rotation generates ∼ 2.5% of the total lensing B-mode polarization amplitude (0.2% in power on small scales), but has a blue spectrum on large scales, making it highly subdominant to the convergence B modes on scales wheremore » they are a source of confusion for the signal from primordial gravitational waves. Since the post-Born signal is non-linear, it also generates a bispectrum with the convergence. We show that the post-Born contributions to the bispectrum substantially change the shape predicted from large-scale structure non-linearities alone, and hence must be included to estimate the expected total signal and impact of bispectrum biases on CMB lensing reconstruction quadratic estimators and other observables. The field-rotation power spectrum only becomes potentially detectable for noise levels || 1 μK arcmin, but its bispectrum with the convergence may be observable at ∼ 3σ with Stage IV observations. Rotation-induced and convergence-induced B modes are slightly correlated by the bispectrum, and the bispectrum also produces additional contributions to the lensed BB power spectrum.« less

Assessment of arrays of in-stream tidal turbines in the Bay of Fundy.

PubMed

Karsten, Richard; Swan, Amanda; Culina, Joel

2013-02-28

Theories of in-stream turbines are adapted to analyse the potential electricity generation and impact of turbine arrays deployed in Minas Passage, Bay of Fundy. Linear momentum actuator disc theory (LMADT) is combined with a theory that calculates the flux through the passage to determine both the turbine power and the impact of rows of turbine fences. For realistically small blockage ratios, the theory predicts that extracting 2000-2500 MW of turbine power will result in a reduction in the flow of less than 5 per cent. The theory also suggests that there is little reason to tune the turbines if the blockage ratio remains small. A turbine array model is derived that extends LMADT by using the velocity field from a numerical simulation of the flow through Minas Passage and modelling the turbine wakes. The model calculates the resulting speed of the flow through and around a turbine array, allowing for the sequential positioning of turbines in regions of strongest flow. The model estimates that over 2000 MW of power is possible with only a 2.5 per cent reduction in the flow. If turbines are restricted to depths less than 50 m, the potential power generation is reduced substantially, down to 300 MW. For large turbine arrays, the blockage ratios remain small and the turbines can produce maximum power with a drag coefficient equal to the Betz-limit value.

26 CFR 1.678(d)-1 - Renunciation of power.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Grantors and Others Treated As Substantial Owners § 1.678(d)-1 Renunciation of power. Section 678(a) does not apply to a power which has been renounced or disclaimed within a reasonable time... 26 Internal Revenue 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Renunciation of power. 1.678(d)-1 Section 1.678...

Performance Evaluation of the Prototype Model NEXT Ion Thruster

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Herman, Daniel A.; Soulas, George C.; Patterson, Michael J.

2008-01-01

The performance testing results of the first prototype model NEXT ion engine, PM1, are presented. The NEXT program has developed the next generation ion propulsion system to enhance and enable Discovery, New Frontiers, and Flagship-type NASA missions. The PM1 thruster exhibits operational behavior consistent with its predecessors, the engineering model thrusters, with substantial mass savings, enhanced thermal margins, and design improvements for environmental testing compliance. The dry mass of PM1 is 12.7 kg. Modifications made in the thruster design have resulted in improved performance and operating margins, as anticipated. PM1 beginning-of-life performance satisfies all of the electric propulsion thruster mission-derived technical requirements. It demonstrates a wide range of throttleability by processing input power levels from 0.5 to 6.9 kW. At 6.9 kW, the PM1 thruster demonstrates specific impulse of 4190 s, 237 mN of thrust, and a thrust efficiency of 0.71. The flat beam profile, flatness parameters vary from 0.66 at low-power to 0.88 at full-power, and advanced ion optics reduce localized accelerator grid erosion and increases margins for electron backstreaming, impingement-limited voltage, and screen grid ion transparency. The thruster throughput capability is predicted to exceed 750 kg of xenon, an equivalent of 36,500 hr of continuous operation at the full-power operating condition.

Key results of the mini-dome Fresnel lens concentrator array development program under recently completed NASA and SDIO SBIR projects

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Oneill, Mark J.; Piszczor, Michael F.; Fraas, Lewis M.

1991-01-01

Since 1986, ENTECH and the NASA Lewis Research Center have been developing a new photovoltaic concentrator system for space power applications. The unique refractive system uses small, dome shaped Fresnel lenses to focus sunlight onto high efficiency photovoltaic concentrator cells which use prismatic cell covers to further increase their performance. Highlights of the five-year development include near Air Mass Zero (AM0) Lear Jet flight testing of mini-dome lenses (90 pct. net optical efficiency achieved); tests verifying sun-pointing error tolerance with negligible power loss; simulator testing of prism-covered GaAs concentrator cells (24 pct. AM0 efficiency); testing of prism-covered Boeing GaAs/GaSb tandem cells (31 pct. AM0 efficiency); and fabrication and outdoor testing of a 36-lens/cell element panel. These test results have confirmed previous analytical predictions which indicate substantial performance improvements for this technology over current array systems. Based on program results to date, it appears than an array power density of 300 watts/sq m and a specific power of 100 watts/kg can be achieved in the near term. All components of the array appear to be readily manufacturable from space-durable materials at reasonable cost. A concise review is presented of the key results leading to the current array, and further development plans for the future are briefly discussed.

Experimental advances and preliminary mathematical modeling of the Swiss-roll mixed-reactant direct borohydride fuel cell

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Aziznia, Amin; Oloman, Colin W.; Gyenge, Előd L.

2014-11-01

The Swiss-roll single-cell mixed reactant (SR-MRFC) borohydride - oxygen fuel cell equipped with Pt/carbon cloth 3D anode and either MnO2 or Ag gas-diffusion cathodes is investigated by a combination of experimental studies and preliminary mathematical modeling of the polarization curve. We investigate the effects of four variables: cathode side metallic mesh fluid distributor, separator type (Nafion 112® vs. Viledon®), cathode catalyst (MnO2 vs. Ag), and the hydrophilic pore volume fraction of the gas-diffusion cathode. Using a two-phase feed of alkaline borohydride solution (1 M NaBH4 - 2 M NaOH) and O2 gas in an SR-MRFC equipped with Pt/C 3D anode, MnO2 gas diffusion cathode, Viledon® porous diaphragm, expanded mesh cathode-side fluid distributor, the maximum superficial power density is 2230 W m-2 at 323 K and 105 kPa(abs). The latter superficial power density is almost 3.5 times higher than our previously reported superficial power density for the same catalyst combinations. Furthermore, with a Pt anode and Ag cathode catalyst combination, a superficial power density of 2500 W m-2 is achieved with superior performance durability compared to the MnO2 cathode. The fuel cell results are substantiated by impedance spectroscopy analysis and preliminary mathematical model predictions based on mixed potential theory.

Estimation of the refractive index of rigid contact lenses on the basis of back vertex power measurements.

PubMed

Pearson, Richard

2011-03-01

To assess the possibility of estimating the refractive index of rigid contact lenses on the basis of measurements of their back vertex power (BVP) in air and when immersed in liquid. First, a spreadsheet model was used to quantify the magnitude of errors arising from simulated inaccuracies in the variables required to calculate refractive index. Then, refractive index was calculated from in-air and in-liquid measurements of BVP of 21 lenses that had been made in three negative BVPs from materials with seven different nominal refractive index values. The power measurements were made by two operators on two occasions. Intraobserver reliability showed a mean difference of 0.0033±0.0061 (t = 0.544, P = 0.59), interobserver reliability showed a mean difference of 0.0043±0.0061 (t = 0.707, P = 0.48), and the mean difference between the nominal and calculated refractive index values was -0.0010±0.0111 (t = -0.093, P = 0.93). The spreadsheet prediction that low-powered lenses might be subject to greater errors in the calculated values of refractive index was substantiated by the experimental results. This method shows good intra and interobserver reliabilities and can be used easily in a clinical setting to provide an estimate of the refractive index of rigid contact lenses having a BVP of 3 D or more.

Demonstration of a Variable Phase Turbine Power System for Low Temperature Geothermal Resources

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hays, Lance G

2014-07-07

A variable phase turbine assembly will be designed and manufactured having a turbine, operable with transcritical, two-phase or vapor flow, and a generator – on the same shaft supported by process lubricated bearings. The assembly will be hermetically sealed and the generator cooled by the refrigerant. A compact plate-fin heat exchanger or tube and shell heat exchanger will be used to transfer heat from the geothermal fluid to the refrigerant. The demonstration turbine will be operated separately with two-phase flow and with vapor flow to demonstrate performance and applicability to the entire range of low temperature geothermal resources. The vapormore » leaving the turbine is condensed in a plate-fin refrigerant condenser. The heat exchanger, variable phase turbine assembly and condenser are all mounted on single skids to enable factory assembly and checkout and minimize installation costs. The system will be demonstrated using low temperature (237F) well flow from an existing large geothermal field. The net power generated, 1 megawatt, will be fed into the existing power system at the demonstration site. The system will demonstrate reliable generation of inexpensive power from low temperature resources. The system will be designed for mass manufacturing and factory assembly and should cost less than $1,200/kWe installed, when manufactured in large quantities. The estimated cost of power for 300F resources is predicted to be less than 5 cents/kWh. This should enable a substantial increase in power generated from low temperature geothermal resources.« less

Power load prediction based on GM (1,1)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wu, Di

2017-05-01

Currently, Chinese power load prediction is highly focused; the paper deeply studies grey prediction and applies it to Chinese electricity consumption during the recent 14 years; through after-test test, it obtains grey prediction which has good adaptability to medium and long-term power load.

Effect of accuracy of wind power prediction on power system operator

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schlueter, R. A.; Sigari, G.; Costi, T.

1985-01-01

This research project proposed a modified unit commitment that schedules connection and disconnection of generating units in response to load. A modified generation control is also proposed that controls steam units under automatic generation control, fast responding diesels, gas turbines and hydro units under a feedforward control, and wind turbine array output under a closed loop array control. This modified generation control and unit commitment require prediction of trend wind power variation one hour ahead and the prediction of error in this trend wind power prediction one half hour ahead. An improved meter for predicting trend wind speed variation is developed. Methods for accurately simulating the wind array power from a limited number of wind speed prediction records was developed. Finally, two methods for predicting the error in the trend wind power prediction were developed. This research provides a foundation for testing and evaluating the modified unit commitment and generation control that was developed to maintain operating reliability at a greatly reduced overall production cost for utilities with wind generation capacity.

Family-Based Benchmarking of Copy Number Variation Detection Software.

PubMed

Nutsua, Marcel Elie; Fischer, Annegret; Nebel, Almut; Hofmann, Sylvia; Schreiber, Stefan; Krawczak, Michael; Nothnagel, Michael

2015-01-01

The analysis of structural variants, in particular of copy-number variations (CNVs), has proven valuable in unraveling the genetic basis of human diseases. Hence, a large number of algorithms have been developed for the detection of CNVs in SNP array signal intensity data. Using the European and African HapMap trio data, we undertook a comparative evaluation of six commonly used CNV detection software tools, namely Affymetrix Power Tools (APT), QuantiSNP, PennCNV, GLAD, R-gada and VEGA, and assessed their level of pair-wise prediction concordance. The tool-specific CNV prediction accuracy was assessed in silico by way of intra-familial validation. Software tools differed greatly in terms of the number and length of the CNVs predicted as well as the number of markers included in a CNV. All software tools predicted substantially more deletions than duplications. Intra-familial validation revealed consistently low levels of prediction accuracy as measured by the proportion of validated CNVs (34-60%). Moreover, up to 20% of apparent family-based validations were found to be due to chance alone. Software using Hidden Markov models (HMM) showed a trend to predict fewer CNVs than segmentation-based algorithms albeit with greater validity. PennCNV yielded the highest prediction accuracy (60.9%). Finally, the pairwise concordance of CNV prediction was found to vary widely with the software tools involved. We recommend HMM-based software, in particular PennCNV, rather than segmentation-based algorithms when validity is the primary concern of CNV detection. QuantiSNP may be used as an additional tool to detect sets of CNVs not detectable by the other tools. Our study also reemphasizes the need for laboratory-based validation, such as qPCR, of CNVs predicted in silico.

Predicting High-Power Performance in Professional Cyclists.

PubMed

Sanders, Dajo; Heijboer, Mathieu; Akubat, Ibrahim; Meijer, Kenneth; Hesselink, Matthijs K

2017-03-01

To assess if short-duration (5 to ~300 s) high-power performance can accurately be predicted using the anaerobic power reserve (APR) model in professional cyclists. Data from 4 professional cyclists from a World Tour cycling team were used. Using the maximal aerobic power, sprint peak power output, and an exponential constant describing the decrement in power over time, a power-duration relationship was established for each participant. To test the predictive accuracy of the model, several all-out field trials of different durations were performed by each cyclist. The power output achieved during the all-out trials was compared with the predicted power output by the APR model. The power output predicted by the model showed very large to nearly perfect correlations to the actual power output obtained during the all-out trials for each cyclist (r = .88 ± .21, .92 ± .17, .95 ± .13, and .97 ± .09). Power output during the all-out trials remained within an average of 6.6% (53 W) of the predicted power output by the model. This preliminary pilot study presents 4 case studies on the applicability of the APR model in professional cyclists using a field-based approach. The decrement in all-out performance during high-intensity exercise seems to conform to a general relationship with a single exponential-decay model describing the decrement in power vs increasing duration. These results are in line with previous studies using the APR model to predict performance during brief all-out trials. Future research should evaluate the APR model with a larger sample size of elite cyclists.

Risk terrain modeling predicts child maltreatment.

PubMed

Daley, Dyann; Bachmann, Michael; Bachmann, Brittany A; Pedigo, Christian; Bui, Minh-Thuy; Coffman, Jamye

2016-12-01

As indicated by research on the long-term effects of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs), maltreatment has far-reaching consequences for affected children. Effective prevention measures have been elusive, partly due to difficulty in identifying vulnerable children before they are harmed. This study employs Risk Terrain Modeling (RTM), an analysis of the cumulative effect of environmental factors thought to be conducive for child maltreatment, to create a highly accurate prediction model for future substantiated child maltreatment cases in the City of Fort Worth, Texas. The model is superior to commonly used hotspot predictions and more beneficial in aiding prevention efforts in a number of ways: 1) it identifies the highest risk areas for future instances of child maltreatment with improved precision and accuracy; 2) it aids the prioritization of risk-mitigating efforts by informing about the relative importance of the most significant contributing risk factors; 3) since predictions are modeled as a function of easily obtainable data, practitioners do not have to undergo the difficult process of obtaining official child maltreatment data to apply it; 4) the inclusion of a multitude of environmental risk factors creates a more robust model with higher predictive validity; and, 5) the model does not rely on a retrospective examination of past instances of child maltreatment, but adapts predictions to changing environmental conditions. The present study introduces and examines the predictive power of this new tool to aid prevention efforts seeking to improve the safety, health, and wellbeing of vulnerable children. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Model validation of untethered, ultrasonic neural dust motes for cortical recording.

PubMed

Seo, Dongjin; Carmena, Jose M; Rabaey, Jan M; Maharbiz, Michel M; Alon, Elad

2015-04-15

A major hurdle in brain-machine interfaces (BMI) is the lack of an implantable neural interface system that remains viable for a substantial fraction of the user's lifetime. Recently, sub-mm implantable, wireless electromagnetic (EM) neural interfaces have been demonstrated in an effort to extend system longevity. However, EM systems do not scale down in size well due to the severe inefficiency of coupling radio-waves at those scales within tissue. This paper explores fundamental system design trade-offs as well as size, power, and bandwidth scaling limits of neural recording systems built from low-power electronics coupled with ultrasonic power delivery and backscatter communication. Such systems will require two fundamental technology innovations: (1) 10-100 μm scale, free-floating, independent sensor nodes, or neural dust, that detect and report local extracellular electrophysiological data via ultrasonic backscattering and (2) a sub-cranial ultrasonic interrogator that establishes power and communication links with the neural dust. We provide experimental verification that the predicted scaling effects follow theory; (127 μm)(3) neural dust motes immersed in water 3 cm from the interrogator couple with 0.002064% power transfer efficiency and 0.04246 ppm backscatter, resulting in a maximum received power of ∼0.5 μW with ∼1 nW of change in backscatter power with neural activity. The high efficiency of ultrasonic transmission can enable the scaling of the sensing nodes down to 10s of micrometer. We conclude with a brief discussion of the application of neural dust for both central and peripheral nervous system recordings, and perspectives on future research directions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantum-chemical studies on hexaazaisowurtzitanes.

PubMed

Ghule, V D; Jadhav, P M; Patil, R S; Radhakrishnan, S; Soman, T

2010-01-14

Highly nitrated cage molecules constitute a new class of energetic materials that have received a substantial amount of interest. Among them 2,4,6,8,10,12-hexanitro-2,4,6,8,10,12-hexaazaisowurtzitane (CL-20) is a powerful explosive with poor impact and friction characteristics. In the present study we aim to design novel energetic materials by tailoring the molecular structure of CL-20. Important characteristics such as the heat of formation and density have been predicted using density functional theory and packing calculations, respectively. Sensitivity correlations have been established for model compounds by analyzing the charge on the nitro groups. Molecules IDX1, IDX4, and IDX7 have been found to have comparable performance with better insensitivity characteristics and may be explored as CL-20 substitutes in defense applications.

Editorial

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bijeljic, Branko; Icardi, Matteo; Prodanović, Maša

2018-05-01

Substantial progress has been made over last few decades on understanding the physics of multiphase flow and reactive transport phenomena in subsurface porous media. Confluence of advances in experimental techniques (including micromodels, X-ray microtomography, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR)) as well as computational power have made it possible to observe static and dynamic multi-scale flow, transport and reactive processes, thus stimulating development of new generation of modelling tools from pore to field scale. One of the key challenges is to make experiment and models as complementary as possible, with continuously improving experimental methods in order to increase predictive capabilities of theoretical models across scales. This creates need to establish rigorous benchmark studies of flow, transport and reaction in porous media which can then serve as the basis for introducing more complex phenomena in future developments.

Preliminary design and analysis of an advanced rotorcraft transmission

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Henry, Z. S.

1990-01-01

Future rotorcraft transmissions of the 1990s and beyond the year 2000 require the incorporation of key emerging material and component technologies using advanced and innovative design practices in order to meet the requirements for a reduced weight-to-power ratio, a decreased noise level, and a substantially increased reliability. The specific goals for future rotocraft transmissions when compared with current state-of-the-art transmissions are a 25 percent weight reduction, a 10-dB reduction in the transmitted noise level, and a system reliability of 5000 hours mean-time-between-removal for the transmission. This paper presents the results of the design studies conducted to meet the stated goals for an advanced rotorcraft transmission. These design studies include system configuration, planetary gear train selection, and reliability prediction methods.

Drivers of biomass co-firing in U.S. coal-fired power plants

Treesearch

Michael E. Goerndt; Francisco X. Aguilar; Kenneth Skog

2013-01-01

Substantial knowledge has been generated in the U.S. about the resource base for forest and other residue-derived biomass for bioenergy including co-firing in power plants. However, a lack of understanding regarding power plant-level operations and manager perceptions of drivers of biomass co-firing remains. This study gathered information from U.S. power plant...

Stochastic Short-term High-resolution Prediction of Solar Irradiance and Photovoltaic Power Output

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Melin, Alexander M.; Olama, Mohammed M.; Dong, Jin

The increased penetration of solar photovoltaic (PV) energy sources into electric grids has increased the need for accurate modeling and prediction of solar irradiance and power production. Existing modeling and prediction techniques focus on long-term low-resolution prediction over minutes to years. This paper examines the stochastic modeling and short-term high-resolution prediction of solar irradiance and PV power output. We propose a stochastic state-space model to characterize the behaviors of solar irradiance and PV power output. This prediction model is suitable for the development of optimal power controllers for PV sources. A filter-based expectation-maximization and Kalman filtering mechanism is employed tomore » estimate the parameters and states in the state-space model. The mechanism results in a finite dimensional filter which only uses the first and second order statistics. The structure of the scheme contributes to a direct prediction of the solar irradiance and PV power output without any linearization process or simplifying assumptions of the signal’s model. This enables the system to accurately predict small as well as large fluctuations of the solar signals. The mechanism is recursive allowing the solar irradiance and PV power to be predicted online from measurements. The mechanism is tested using solar irradiance and PV power measurement data collected locally in our lab.« less

Maximal Upper Body Strength and Oxygen Uptake are Associated with Performance in High-Level 200-M Sprint Kayakers.

PubMed

Pickett, Craig W; Nosaka, Kazunori; Zois, James; Hopkins, Will G; J, Anthony; Blazevich

2017-12-27

Current training and monitoring methods in sprint kayaking are based on the premise that upper-body muscular strength and aerobic power are both important for performance, but limited evidence exists to support this premise in high-level athletes. Relationships between measures of strength, maximal oxygen uptake (VO2max) and 200-m race times in kayakers competing at national-to-international levels were examined. Data collected from Australian Canoeing training camps and competitions for 7 elite, 7 national and 8 club level male sprint kayakers were analyzed for relationships between maximal isoinertial strength (3-RM bench press, bench row, chin-up and deadlift), VO2max on a kayak ergometer, and 200-m race time. Correlations between race time and bench press, bench row, chin-up, and VO2max were -0.80, -0.76, -0.73, -0.02 and 0.71, respectively (90% confidence limits ∼±0.17). The multiple correlation coefficient for 200-m race time with bench press and VO2max was 0.84. Errors in prediction of 200-m race time in regression analyses were extremely large (∼4%) in relation to the smallest important change of 0.3%. However, from the slopes of the regressions, the smallest important change could be achieved with a 1.4% (±0.5%) change in bench-press strength and a 0.9% (±0.5%) change in VO2max. Substantial relationships were found between upper-body strength or aerobic power and 200-m performances. These measures may not accurately predict individual performance times, but would be practicable for talent identification purposes. Training aimed at improving upper-body strength or aerobic power in lowerperforming athletes could also enhance the performance in 200-m kayak sprints.

Global patterns of tropical forest fragmentation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Taubert, Franziska; Fischer, Rico; Groeneveld, Jürgen; Lehmann, Sebastian; Müller, Michael S.; Rödig, Edna; Wiegand, Thorsten; Huth, Andreas

2018-02-01

Remote sensing enables the quantification of tropical deforestation with high spatial resolution. This in-depth mapping has led to substantial advances in the analysis of continent-wide fragmentation of tropical forests. Here we identified approximately 130 million forest fragments in three continents that show surprisingly similar power-law size and perimeter distributions as well as fractal dimensions. Power-law distributions have been observed in many natural phenomena such as wildfires, landslides and earthquakes. The principles of percolation theory provide one explanation for the observed patterns, and suggest that forest fragmentation is close to the critical point of percolation; simulation modelling also supports this hypothesis. The observed patterns emerge not only from random deforestation, which can be described by percolation theory, but also from a wide range of deforestation and forest-recovery regimes. Our models predict that additional forest loss will result in a large increase in the total number of forest fragments—at maximum by a factor of 33 over 50 years—as well as a decrease in their size, and that these consequences could be partly mitigated by reforestation and forest protection.

Additional application of the NASCAP code. Volume 2: SEPS, ion thruster neutralization and electrostatic antenna model

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Katz, I.; Cassidy, J. J.; Mandell, M. J.; Parks, D. E.; Schnuelle, G. W.; Stannard, P. R.; Steen, P. G.

1981-01-01

The interactions of spacecraft systems with the surrounding plasma environment were studied analytically for three cases of current interest: calculating the impact of spacecraft generated plasmas on the main power system of a baseline solar electric propulsion stage (SEPS), modeling the physics of the neutralization of an ion thruster beam by a plasma bridge, and examining the physical and electrical effects of orbital ambient plasmas on the operation of an electrostatically controlled membrane mirror. In order to perform these studies, the NASA charging analyzer program (NASCAP) was used as well as several other computer models and analytical estimates. The main result of the SEPS study was to show how charge exchange ion expansion can create a conducting channel between the thrusters and the solar arrays. A fluid-like model was able to predict plasma potentials and temperatures measured near the main beam of an ion thruster and in the vicinity of a hollow cathode neutralizer. Power losses due to plasma currents were shown to be substantial for several proposed electrostatic antenna designs.

Theoretical investigation of silicide Schottky barrier detector integrated in horizontal metal-insulator-silicon-insulator-metal nanoplasmonic slot waveguide.

PubMed

Zhu, Shiyang; Lo, G Q; Kwong, D L

2011-08-15

An ultracompact integrated silicide Schottky barrier detector (SBD) is designed and theoretically investigated to electrically detect the surface plasmon polariton (SPP) propagating along horizontal metal-insulator-silicon-insulator-metal nanoplasmonic slot waveguides at the telecommunication wavelength of 1550 nm. An ultrathin silicide layer inserted between the silicon core and the insulator, which can be fabricated precisely using the well-developed self-aligned silicide process, absorbs the SPP power effectively if a suitable silicide is chosen. Moreover, the Schottky barrier height in the silicide-silicon-silicide configuration can be tuned substantially by the external voltage through the Schottky effect owing to the very narrow silicon core. For a TaSi(2) detector with optimized dimensions, numerical simulation predicts responsivity of ~0.07 A/W, speed of ~60 GHz, dark current of ~66 nA at room temperature, and minimum detectable power of ~-29 dBm. The design also suggests that the device's size can be reduced and the overall performances will be further improved if a silicide with smaller permittivity is used. © 2011 Optical Society of America

Scaling laws for impact fragmentation of spherical solids.

PubMed

Timár, G; Kun, F; Carmona, H A; Herrmann, H J

2012-07-01

We investigate the impact fragmentation of spherical solid bodies made of heterogeneous brittle materials by means of a discrete element model. Computer simulations are carried out for four different system sizes varying the impact velocity in a broad range. We perform a finite size scaling analysis to determine the critical exponents of the damage-fragmentation phase transition and deduce scaling relations in terms of radius R and impact velocity v(0). The scaling analysis demonstrates that the exponent of the power law distributed fragment mass does not depend on the impact velocity; the apparent change of the exponent predicted by recent simulations can be attributed to the shifting cutoff and to the existence of unbreakable discrete units. Our calculations reveal that the characteristic time scale of the breakup process has a power law dependence on the impact speed and on the distance from the critical speed in the damaged and fragmented states, respectively. The total amount of damage is found to have a similar behavior, which is substantially different from the logarithmic dependence on the impact velocity observed in two dimensions.

Relativistic-electron-beam/target interaction in plasma channels

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Halbleib, J. A., Sr.; Wright, T. P.

1980-08-01

A model describing the transport of relativistic electron beams in plasma channels and their subsequent interaction with solid targets is developed and applied to single-beam and multiple-beam configurations. For single beams the targets consist of planar tantalum foils and, in some cases, cusp fields on the transmission side of the foils are employed to improve beam/target coupling efficiency. In the multi-beam configurations, several beams are arranged in wagon-wheel fashion so as to converge upon cylindrical targets, consisting of either hollow tantalum or solid graphite cylinders, located at the hub. For 0.3-cm beam radii that are less than or equal to the channel radii, mean specific power depositions up to about 17 TW/g per MA of injected beam current are obtained for single beams; 12-beam results are typically an order-of-magnitude less. The corresponding enhancements are up to five times the collisional stopping power for either single or multiple beams. Substantial improvement is predicted for the multi-beam interaction should future channel technology permit transport at higher current densities in smaller channels.

Arcjet space thrusters

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keefer, Dennis; Rhodes, Robert

1993-05-01

Electrically powered arc jets which produce thrust at high specific impulse could provide a substantial cost reduction for orbital transfer and station keeping missions. There is currently a limited understanding of the complex, nonlinear interactions in the plasma propellant which has hindered the development of high efficiency arc jet thrusters by making it difficult to predict the effect of design changes and to interpret experimental results. A computational model developed at the University of Tennessee Space Institute (UTSI) to study laser powered thrusters and radio frequency gas heaters has been adapted to provide a tool to help understand the physical processes in arc jet thrusters. The approach is to include in the model those physical and chemical processes which appear to be important, and then to evaluate our judgement by the comparison of numerical simulations with experimental data. The results of this study have been presented at four technical conferences. The details of the work accomplished in this project are covered in the individual papers included in the appendix of this report. We present a brief description of the model covering its most important features followed by a summary of the effort.

Effectiveness of a passive-active vibration isolation system with actuator constraints

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sun, Lingling; Sun, Wei; Song, Kongjie; Hansen, Colin H.

2014-05-01

In the prediction of active vibration isolation performance, control force requirements were ignored in previous work. This may limit the realization of theoretically predicted isolation performance if control force of large magnitude cannot be supplied by actuators. The behavior of a feed-forward active isolation system subjected to actuator output constraints is investigated. Distributed parameter models are developed to analyze the system response, and to produce a transfer matrix for the design of an integrated passive-active isolation system. Cost functions comprising a combination of the vibration transmission energy and the sum of the squared control forces are proposed. The example system considered is a rigid body connected to a simply supported plate via two passive-active isolation mounts. Vertical and transverse forces as well as a rotational moment are applied at the rigid body, and resonances excited in elastic mounts and the supporting plate are analyzed. The overall isolation performance is evaluated by numerical simulation. The simulation results are then compared with those obtained using unconstrained control strategies. In addition, the effects of waves in elastic mounts are analyzed. It is shown that the control strategies which rely on unconstrained actuator outputs may give substantial power transmission reductions over a wide frequency range, but also require large control force amplitudes to control excited vibration modes of the system. Expected power transmission reductions for modified control strategies that incorporate constrained actuator outputs are considerably less than typical reductions with unconstrained actuator outputs. In the frequency range in which rigid body modes are present, the control strategies can only achieve 5-10 dB power transmission reduction, when control forces are constrained to be the same order of the magnitude as the primary vertical force. The resonances of the elastic mounts result in a notable increase of power transmission in high frequency range and cannot be attenuated by active control. The investigation provides a guideline for design and evaluation of active vibration isolation systems.

Divertor power load feedback with nitrogen seeding in ASDEX Upgrade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kallenbach, A.; Dux, R.; Fuchs, J. C.; Fischer, R.; Geiger, B.; Giannone, L.; Herrmann, A.; Lunt, T.; Mertens, V.; McDermott, R.; Neu, R.; Pütterich, T.; Rathgeber, S.; Rohde, V.; Schmid, K.; Schweinzer, J.; Treutterer, W.; ASDEX Upgrade Team

2010-05-01

Feedback control of the divertor power load by means of nitrogen seeding has been developed into a routine operational tool in the all-tungsten clad ASDEX Upgrade tokamak. For heating powers above about 12 MW, its use has become inevitable to protect the divertor tungsten coating under boronized conditions. The use of nitrogen seeding is accompanied by improved energy confinement due to higher core plasma temperatures, which more than compensates the negative effect of plasma dilution by nitrogen on the neutron rate. This paper describes the technical details of the feedback controller. A simple model for its underlying physics allows the prediction of its behaviour and the optimization of the feedback gain coefficients used. Storage and release of nitrogen in tungsten surfaces were found to have substantial impact on the behaviour of the seeded plasma, resulting in increased nitrogen consumption with unloaded walls and a latency of nitrogen release over several discharges after its injection. Nitrogen is released from tungsten plasma facing components with moderate surface temperature in a sputtering-like process; therefore no uncontrolled excursions of the nitrogen wall release are observed. Overall, very stable operation of the high-Z tokamak is possible with nitrogen seeding, where core radiative losses are avoided due to its low atomic charge Z and a high ELM frequency is maintained.

Accounting for response misclassification and covariate measurement error improves power and reduces bias in epidemiologic studies.

PubMed

Cheng, Dunlei; Branscum, Adam J; Stamey, James D

2010-07-01

To quantify the impact of ignoring misclassification of a response variable and measurement error in a covariate on statistical power, and to develop software for sample size and power analysis that accounts for these flaws in epidemiologic data. A Monte Carlo simulation-based procedure is developed to illustrate the differences in design requirements and inferences between analytic methods that properly account for misclassification and measurement error to those that do not in regression models for cross-sectional and cohort data. We found that failure to account for these flaws in epidemiologic data can lead to a substantial reduction in statistical power, over 25% in some cases. The proposed method substantially reduced bias by up to a ten-fold margin compared to naive estimates obtained by ignoring misclassification and mismeasurement. We recommend as routine practice that researchers account for errors in measurement of both response and covariate data when determining sample size, performing power calculations, or analyzing data from epidemiological studies. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Young people’s differential vulnerability to criminogenic exposure: Bridging the gap between people- and place-oriented approaches in the study of crime causation

PubMed Central

Wikström, Per-Olof H; Mann, Richard P; Hardie, Beth

2018-01-01

The overall purpose of this study is to contribute to bridging the gap between people- and place-oriented approaches in the study of crime causation. To achieve this we will explore some core hypotheses derived from Situational Action Theory about what makes young people crime prone and makes places criminogenic, and about the interaction between crime propensity and criminogenic exposure predicting crime events. We will also calculate the expected reduction in aggregate levels of crime that will occur as a result of successful interventions targeting crime propensity and criminogenic exposure. To test the hypotheses we will utilize a unique set of space–time budget, small area community survey, land-use and interviewer-led questionnaire data from the prospective longitudinal Peterborough Adolescent and Young Adult Development Study (PADS+) and an artificial neural network approach to modelling. The results show that people’s crime propensity (based on their personal morals and abilities to exercise self-control) has the bulk of predictive power, but also that including criminogenic exposure (being unsupervised with peers and engaged in unstructured activities in residential areas of poor collective efficacy or commercial centres) demonstrates a substantial increase in predictive power (in addition to crime propensity). Moreover, the results show that the probability of crime is strongest when a crime-prone person is in a criminogenic setting and, crucially, that the higher a person’s crime propensity the more vulnerable he or she is to influences of criminogenic exposure. Finally, the findings suggest that a reduction in people’s crime propensity has a much bigger impact on their crime involvement than a reduction in their exposure to criminogenic settings. PMID:29416442

RF Sputtering for preparing substantially pure amorphous silicon monohydride

DOEpatents

Jeffrey, Frank R.; Shanks, Howard R.

1982-10-12

A process for controlling the dihydride and monohydride bond densities in hydrogenated amorphous silicon produced by reactive rf sputtering of an amorphous silicon target. There is provided a chamber with an amorphous silicon target and a substrate therein with the substrate and the target positioned such that when rf power is applied to the target the substrate is in contact with the sputtering plasma produced thereby. Hydrogen and argon are fed to the chamber and the pressure is reduced in the chamber to a value sufficient to maintain a sputtering plasma therein, and then rf power is applied to the silicon target to provide a power density in the range of from about 7 watts per square inch to about 22 watts per square inch to sputter an amorphous silicon hydride onto the substrate, the dihydride bond density decreasing with an increase in the rf power density. Substantially pure monohydride films may be produced.

47 CFR 73.664 - Determining operating power.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

... power to within an accuracy of ±5% of the power indicated by the full scale reading of the electrical... frequency amplifier stage and the transmission line meter are to be read and compared with similar readings taken with the dummy load replaced by the antenna. These readings must be in substantial agreement. (3...

Wind Power: A Turning Point. Worldwatch Paper 45.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Flavin, Christopher

Recent studies have shown wind power to be an eminently practical and potentially substantial source of electricity and direct mechanical power. Wind machines range from simple water-pumping devices made of wood and cloth to large electricity producing turbines with fiberglass blades nearly 300 feet long. Wind is in effect a form of solar…

26 CFR 1.674(c)-1 - Excepted powers exercisable only by independent trustees.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 8 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Excepted powers exercisable only by independent... TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Grantors and Others Treated As Substantial Owners § 1.674(c)-1 Excepted powers exercisable only by independent trustees. Section 674(c) provides an...

47 CFR 73.664 - Determining operating power.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-10-01

... power to within an accuracy of ±5% of the power indicated by the full scale reading of the electrical... frequency amplifier stage and the transmission line meter are to be read and compared with similar readings taken with the dummy load replaced by the antenna. These readings must be in substantial agreement. (3...

47 CFR 73.664 - Determining operating power.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-10-01

... power to within an accuracy of ±5% of the power indicated by the full scale reading of the electrical... frequency amplifier stage and the transmission line meter are to be read and compared with similar readings taken with the dummy load replaced by the antenna. These readings must be in substantial agreement. (3...

47 CFR 73.664 - Determining operating power.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-10-01

... power to within an accuracy of ±5% of the power indicated by the full scale reading of the electrical... frequency amplifier stage and the transmission line meter are to be read and compared with similar readings taken with the dummy load replaced by the antenna. These readings must be in substantial agreement. (3...

Improving satellite-driven PM2.5 models with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire counts in the southeastern U.S.

PubMed

Hu, Xuefei; Waller, Lance A; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Liu, Yang

2014-10-16

Multiple studies have developed surface PM 2.5 (particle size less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) prediction models using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth as the primary predictor and meteorological and land use variables as secondary variables. To our knowledge, satellite-retrieved fire information has not been used for PM 2.5 concentration prediction in statistical models. Fire data could be a useful predictor since fires are significant contributors of PM 2.5 . In this paper, we examined whether remotely sensed fire count data could improve PM 2.5 prediction accuracy in the southeastern U.S. in a spatial statistical model setting. A sensitivity analysis showed that when the radius of the buffer zone centered at each PM 2.5 monitoring site reached 75 km, fire count data generally have the greatest predictive power of PM 2.5 across the models considered. Cross validation (CV) generated an R 2 of 0.69, a mean prediction error of 2.75 µg/m 3 , and root-mean-square prediction errors (RMSPEs) of 4.29 µg/m 3 , indicating a good fit between the dependent and predictor variables. A comparison showed that the prediction accuracy was improved more substantially from the nonfire model to the fire model at sites with higher fire counts. With increasing fire counts, CV RMSPE decreased by values up to 1.5 µg/m 3 , exhibiting a maximum improvement of 13.4% in prediction accuracy. Fire count data were shown to have better performance in southern Georgia and in the spring season due to higher fire occurrence. Our findings indicate that fire count data provide a measurable improvement in PM 2.5 concentration estimation, especially in areas and seasons prone to fire events.

A genomic biomarker signature can predict skin sensitizers using a cell-based in vitro alternative to animal tests

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background Allergic contact dermatitis is an inflammatory skin disease that affects a significant proportion of the population. This disease is caused by an adverse immune response towards chemical haptens, and leads to a substantial economic burden for society. Current test of sensitizing chemicals rely on animal experimentation. New legislations on the registration and use of chemicals within pharmaceutical and cosmetic industries have stimulated significant research efforts to develop alternative, human cell-based assays for the prediction of sensitization. The aim is to replace animal experiments with in vitro tests displaying a higher predictive power. Results We have developed a novel cell-based assay for the prediction of sensitizing chemicals. By analyzing the transcriptome of the human cell line MUTZ-3 after 24 h stimulation, using 20 different sensitizing chemicals, 20 non-sensitizing chemicals and vehicle controls, we have identified a biomarker signature of 200 genes with potent discriminatory ability. Using a Support Vector Machine for supervised classification, the prediction performance of the assay revealed an area under the ROC curve of 0.98. In addition, categorizing the chemicals according to the LLNA assay, this gene signature could also predict sensitizing potency. The identified markers are involved in biological pathways with immunological relevant functions, which can shed light on the process of human sensitization. Conclusions A gene signature predicting sensitization, using a human cell line in vitro, has been identified. This simple and robust cell-based assay has the potential to completely replace or drastically reduce the utilization of test systems based on experimental animals. Being based on human biology, the assay is proposed to be more accurate for predicting sensitization in humans, than the traditional animal-based tests. PMID:21824406

Improving satellite-driven PM2.5 models with Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire counts in the southeastern U.S

PubMed Central

Hu, Xuefei; Waller, Lance A.; Lyapustin, Alexei; Wang, Yujie; Liu, Yang

2017-01-01

Multiple studies have developed surface PM2.5 (particle size less than 2.5 µm in aerodynamic diameter) prediction models using satellite-derived aerosol optical depth as the primary predictor and meteorological and land use variables as secondary variables. To our knowledge, satellite-retrieved fire information has not been used for PM2.5 concentration prediction in statistical models. Fire data could be a useful predictor since fires are significant contributors of PM2.5. In this paper, we examined whether remotely sensed fire count data could improve PM2.5 prediction accuracy in the southeastern U.S. in a spatial statistical model setting. A sensitivity analysis showed that when the radius of the buffer zone centered at each PM2.5 monitoring site reached 75 km, fire count data generally have the greatest predictive power of PM2.5 across the models considered. Cross validation (CV) generated an R2 of 0.69, a mean prediction error of 2.75 µg/m3, and root-mean-square prediction errors (RMSPEs) of 4.29 µg/m3, indicating a good fit between the dependent and predictor variables. A comparison showed that the prediction accuracy was improved more substantially from the nonfire model to the fire model at sites with higher fire counts. With increasing fire counts, CV RMSPE decreased by values up to 1.5 µg/m3, exhibiting a maximum improvement of 13.4% in prediction accuracy. Fire count data were shown to have better performance in southern Georgia and in the spring season due to higher fire occurrence. Our findings indicate that fire count data provide a measurable improvement in PM2.5 concentration estimation, especially in areas and seasons prone to fire events. PMID:28967648

Visibility and Visual Characteristics of the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System Power Tower Facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Sullivan, Robert; Abplanalp, Jennifer M.

2015-03-01

This report presents the results of a study conducted to document the visibility and visual characteristics of the Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System (ISEGS), a utility-scale solar power tower facility located on land administered by the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Land Management in southern California. Study activities consisted of field observations of the ISEGS facility and comparison of the observations made in the field with the visual contrast assessments and visual simulations in the ISEGS Final Environmental Impact Statement (Final EIS) and supporting documents created prior to ISEGS construction. Field observations of ISEGS were made from 19more » locations within 35 mi (56 km) of the facility in the course of one week in September 2014. The study results established that reflected sunlight from the receivers was the primary source of visual contrast from the operating ISEGS facility. The ISEGS facility was found to be a major source of visual contrast for all observations up to 20 mi (32 km), and was easily visible at 35 mi. Glare from individual heliostats was frequently visible, and often brighter than the reflected light from the receivers. Heliostat glare caused discomfort for one or more viewers at distances up to 20 mi. The ISEGS power blocks were brightly lit at night, and were conspicuous at the observation distance of approximately 6 mi (10 km). The facility is substantially brighter and is seen more clearly in the field than in photographs of the facility or in the prepared simulations, which were based on photographs. The simulations of the ISEGS facility in the Final EIS, which were evaluated as part of this study, sometimes lacked spatial accuracy and realism. The evaluated simulations generally under-represented the actual visual contrast from the project, and some of the contrast ratings in the Final EIS predicted substantially lower levels of visual contrast than were actually observed for the operating facility.« less

Predicting Well-being Longitudinally for Mothers Rearing Offspring with Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities

PubMed Central

Grein, Katherine A.; Glidden, Laraine Masters

2014-01-01

Background Well-being outcomes for parents of children with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) may vary from positive to negative at different times and for different measures of well-being. Predicting and explaining this variability has been a major focus of family research for reasons that have both theoretical and applied implications. Methods The current study used data from a 23-year longitudinal investigation of adoptive and birth parents of children with IDD to determine which early child, mother, and family characteristics would predict the variance in maternal outcomes 20 years after their original measurement. Using hierarchical regression analyses, we tested the predictive power of variables measured when children were 7 years old on outcomes of maternal well-being when children were 26 years old. Outcome variables included maternal self-report measures of depression and well–being. Results Final models of well-being accounted for 20% to 34% of variance. For most outcomes, Family Accord and/or the personality variable of Neuroticism (emotional stability/instability) were significant predictors, but some variables demonstrated a different pattern. Conclusions These findings confirm that 1) Characteristics of the child, mother, and family during childhood can predict outcomes of maternal well-being 20 years later; and 2) Different predictor-outcome relationships can vary substantially, highlighting the importance of using multiple measures to gain a more comprehensive understanding of maternal well-being. These results have implications for refining prognoses for parents and for tailoring service delivery to individual child, parent, and family characteristics. PMID:25185956

Modeling Forest Biomass and Growth: Coupling Long-Term Inventory and Lidar Data

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Cook, Bruce D.; Weiskittel, Andrew; Woodall, Christopher W.

2016-01-01

Combining spatially-explicit long-term forest inventory and remotely sensed information from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) datasets through statistical models can be a powerful tool for predicting and mapping above-ground biomass (AGB) at a range of geographic scales. We present and examine a novel modeling approach to improve prediction of AGB and estimate AGB growth using LiDAR data. The proposed model accommodates temporal misalignment between field measurements and remotely sensed data-a problem pervasive in such settings-by including multiple time-indexed measurements at plot locations to estimate AGB growth. We pursue a Bayesian modeling framework that allows for appropriately complex parameter associations and uncertainty propagation through to prediction. Specifically, we identify a space-varying coefficients model to predict and map AGB and its associated growth simultaneously. The proposed model is assessed using LiDAR data acquired from NASA Goddard's LiDAR, Hyper-spectral & Thermal imager and field inventory data from the Penobscot Experimental Forest in Bradley, Maine. The proposed model outperformed the time-invariant counterpart models in predictive performance as indicated by a substantial reduction in root mean squared error. The proposed model adequately accounts for temporal misalignment through the estimation of forest AGB growth and accommodates residual spatial dependence. Results from this analysis suggest that future AGB models informed using remotely sensed data, such as LiDAR, may be improved by adapting traditional modeling frameworks to account for temporal misalignment and spatial dependence using random effects.

Resolving prokaryotic taxonomy without rRNA: longer oligonucleotide word lengths improve genome and metagenome taxonomic classification.

PubMed

Alsop, Eric B; Raymond, Jason

2013-01-01

Oligonucleotide signatures, especially tetranucleotide signatures, have been used as method for homology binning by exploiting an organism's inherent biases towards the use of specific oligonucleotide words. Tetranucleotide signatures have been especially useful in environmental metagenomics samples as many of these samples contain organisms from poorly classified phyla which cannot be easily identified using traditional homology methods, including NCBI BLAST. This study examines oligonucleotide signatures across 1,424 completed genomes from across the tree of life, substantially expanding upon previous work. A comprehensive analysis of mononucleotide through nonanucleotide word lengths suggests that longer word lengths substantially improve the classification of DNA fragments across a range of sizes of relevance to high throughput sequencing. We find that, at present, heptanucleotide signatures represent an optimal balance between prediction accuracy and computational time for resolving taxonomy using both genomic and metagenomic fragments. We directly compare the ability of tetranucleotide and heptanucleotide world lengths (tetranucleotide signatures are the current standard for oligonucleotide word usage analyses) for taxonomic binning of metagenome reads. We present evidence that heptanucleotide word lengths consistently provide more taxonomic resolving power, particularly in distinguishing between closely related organisms that are often present in metagenomic samples. This implies that longer oligonucleotide word lengths should replace tetranucleotide signatures for most analyses. Finally, we show that the application of longer word lengths to metagenomic datasets leads to more accurate taxonomic binning of DNA scaffolds and have the potential to substantially improve taxonomic assignment and assembly of metagenomic data.

Lateral orbitofrontal cortex links social impressions to political choices.

PubMed

Xia, Chenjie; Stolle, Dietlind; Gidengil, Elisabeth; Fellows, Lesley K

2015-06-03

Recent studies of political behavior suggest that voting decisions can be influenced substantially by "first-impression" social attributions based on physical appearance. Separate lines of research have implicated the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) in the judgment of social traits on the one hand and economic decision-making on the other, making this region a plausible candidate for linking social attributions to voting decisions. Here, we asked whether OFC lesions in humans disrupted the ability to judge traits of political candidates or affected how these judgments influenced voting decisions. Seven patients with lateral OFC damage, 18 patients with frontal damage sparing the lateral OFC, and 53 matched healthy participants took part in a simulated election paradigm, in which they voted for real-life (but unknown) candidates based only on photographs of their faces. Consistent with previous work, attributions of "competence" and "attractiveness" based on candidate appearance predicted voting behavior in the healthy control group. Frontal damage did not affect substantially the ability to make competence or attractiveness judgments, but patients with damage to the lateral OFC differed from other groups in how they applied this information when voting. Only attractiveness ratings had any predictive power for voting choices after lateral OFC damage, whereas other frontal patients and healthy controls relied on information about both competence and attractiveness in making their choice. An intact lateral OFC may not be necessary for judgment of social traits based on physical appearance, but it seems to be crucial in applying this information in political decision-making. Copyright © 2015 the authors 0270-6474/15/358507-08$15.00/0.

Network Receptive Field Modeling Reveals Extensive Integration and Multi-feature Selectivity in Auditory Cortical Neurons.

PubMed

Harper, Nicol S; Schoppe, Oliver; Willmore, Ben D B; Cui, Zhanfeng; Schnupp, Jan W H; King, Andrew J

2016-11-01

Cortical sensory neurons are commonly characterized using the receptive field, the linear dependence of their response on the stimulus. In primary auditory cortex neurons can be characterized by their spectrotemporal receptive fields, the spectral and temporal features of a sound that linearly drive a neuron. However, receptive fields do not capture the fact that the response of a cortical neuron results from the complex nonlinear network in which it is embedded. By fitting a nonlinear feedforward network model (a network receptive field) to cortical responses to natural sounds, we reveal that primary auditory cortical neurons are sensitive over a substantially larger spectrotemporal domain than is seen in their standard spectrotemporal receptive fields. Furthermore, the network receptive field, a parsimonious network consisting of 1-7 sub-receptive fields that interact nonlinearly, consistently better predicts neural responses to auditory stimuli than the standard receptive fields. The network receptive field reveals separate excitatory and inhibitory sub-fields with different nonlinear properties, and interaction of the sub-fields gives rise to important operations such as gain control and conjunctive feature detection. The conjunctive effects, where neurons respond only if several specific features are present together, enable increased selectivity for particular complex spectrotemporal structures, and may constitute an important stage in sound recognition. In conclusion, we demonstrate that fitting auditory cortical neural responses with feedforward network models expands on simple linear receptive field models in a manner that yields substantially improved predictive power and reveals key nonlinear aspects of cortical processing, while remaining easy to interpret in a physiological context.

Network Receptive Field Modeling Reveals Extensive Integration and Multi-feature Selectivity in Auditory Cortical Neurons

PubMed Central

Willmore, Ben D. B.; Cui, Zhanfeng; Schnupp, Jan W. H.; King, Andrew J.

2016-01-01

Cortical sensory neurons are commonly characterized using the receptive field, the linear dependence of their response on the stimulus. In primary auditory cortex neurons can be characterized by their spectrotemporal receptive fields, the spectral and temporal features of a sound that linearly drive a neuron. However, receptive fields do not capture the fact that the response of a cortical neuron results from the complex nonlinear network in which it is embedded. By fitting a nonlinear feedforward network model (a network receptive field) to cortical responses to natural sounds, we reveal that primary auditory cortical neurons are sensitive over a substantially larger spectrotemporal domain than is seen in their standard spectrotemporal receptive fields. Furthermore, the network receptive field, a parsimonious network consisting of 1–7 sub-receptive fields that interact nonlinearly, consistently better predicts neural responses to auditory stimuli than the standard receptive fields. The network receptive field reveals separate excitatory and inhibitory sub-fields with different nonlinear properties, and interaction of the sub-fields gives rise to important operations such as gain control and conjunctive feature detection. The conjunctive effects, where neurons respond only if several specific features are present together, enable increased selectivity for particular complex spectrotemporal structures, and may constitute an important stage in sound recognition. In conclusion, we demonstrate that fitting auditory cortical neural responses with feedforward network models expands on simple linear receptive field models in a manner that yields substantially improved predictive power and reveals key nonlinear aspects of cortical processing, while remaining easy to interpret in a physiological context. PMID:27835647

Role of socioeconomic status measures in long-term mortality risk prediction after myocardial infarction.

PubMed

Molshatzki, Noa; Drory, Yaacov; Myers, Vicki; Goldbourt, Uri; Benyamini, Yael; Steinberg, David M; Gerber, Yariv

2011-07-01

The relationship of risk factors to outcomes has traditionally been assessed by measures of association such as odds ratio or hazard ratio and their statistical significance from an adjusted model. However, a strong, highly significant association does not guarantee a gain in stratification capacity. Using recently developed model performance indices, we evaluated the incremental discriminatory power of individual and neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES) measures after myocardial infarction (MI). Consecutive patients aged ≤65 years (N=1178) discharged from 8 hospitals in central Israel after incident MI in 1992 to 1993 were followed-up through 2005. A basic model (demographic variables, traditional cardiovascular risk factors, and disease severity indicators) was compared with an extended model including SES measures (education, income, employment, living with a steady partner, and neighborhood SES) in terms of Harrell c statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), and net reclassification improvement (NRI). During the 13-year follow-up, 326 (28%) patients died. Cox proportional hazards models showed that all SES measures were significantly and independently associated with mortality. Furthermore, compared with the basic model, the extended model yielded substantial gains (all P<0.001) in c statistic (0.723 to 0.757), NRI (15.2%), IDI (5.9%), and relative IDI (32%). Improvement was observed both for sensitivity (classification of events) and specificity (classification of nonevents). This study illustrates the additional insights that can be gained from considering the IDI and NRI measures of model performance and suggests that, among community patients with incident MI, incorporating SES measures into a clinical-based model substantially improves long-term mortality risk prediction.

EGRET upper limits to the high-energy gamma-ray emission from the millisecond pulsars in nearby globular clusters

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Michelson, P. F.; Bertsch, D. L.; Brazier, K.; Chiang, J.; Dingus, B. L.; Fichtel, C. E.; Fierro, J.; Hartman, R. C.; Hunter, S. D.; Kanbach, G.

1994-01-01

We report upper limits to the high-energy gamma-ray emission from the millisecond pulsars (MSPs) in a number of globular clusters. The observations were done as part of an all-sky survey by the energetic Gamma Ray Experiment Telescope (EGRET) on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory (CGRO) during Phase I of the CGRO mission (1991 June to 1992 November). Several theoretical models suggest that MSPs may be sources of high-energy gamma radiation emitted either as primary radiation from the pulsar magnetosphere or as secondary radiation generated by conversion into photons of a substantial part of the relativistic e(+/-) pair wind expected to flow from the pulsar. To date, no high-energy emission has been detected from an individual MSP. However, a large number of MSPs are expected in globular cluster cores where the formation rate of accreting binary systems is high. Model predictions of the total number of pulsars range in the hundreds for some clusters. These expectations have been reinforced by recent discoveries of a substantial number of radio MSPs in several clusters; for example, 11 have been found in 47 Tucanae (Manchester et al.). The EGRET observations have been used to obtain upper limits for the efficiency eta of conversion of MSP spin-down power into hard gamma rays. The upper limits are also compared with the gamma-ray fluxes predicted from theoretical models of pulsar wind emission (Tavani). The EGRET limits put significant constraints on either the emission models or the number of pulsars in the globular clusters.

Hot Dust in Panchromatic SED Fitting: Identification of Active Galactic Nuclei and Improved Galaxy Properties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Leja, Joel; Johnson, Benjamin D.; Conroy, Charlie; van Dokkum, Pieter

2018-02-01

Forward modeling of the full galaxy SED is a powerful technique, providing self-consistent constraints on stellar ages, dust properties, and metallicities. However, the accuracy of these results is contingent on the accuracy of the model. One significant source of uncertainty is the contribution of obscured AGN, as they are relatively common and can produce substantial mid-IR (MIR) emission. Here we include emission from dusty AGN torii in the Prospector SED-fitting framework, and fit the UV–IR broadband photometry of 129 nearby galaxies. We find that 10% of the fitted galaxies host an AGN contributing >10% of the observed galaxy MIR luminosity. We demonstrate the necessity of this AGN component in the following ways. First, we compare observed spectral features to spectral features predicted from our model fit to the photometry. We find that the AGN component greatly improves predictions for observed Hα and Hβ luminosities, as well as mid-infrared Akari and Spitzer/IRS spectra. Second, we show that inclusion of the AGN component changes stellar ages and SFRs by up to a factor of 10, and dust attenuations by up to a factor of 2.5. Finally, we show that the strength of our model AGN component correlates with independent AGN indicators, suggesting that these galaxies truly host AGN. Notably, only 46% of the SED-detected AGN would be detected with a simple MIR color selection. Based on these results, we conclude that SED models which fit MIR data without AGN components are vulnerable to substantial bias in their derived parameters.

Life cycle water use for electricity generation: a review and harmonization of literature estimates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meldrum, J.; Nettles-Anderson, S.; Heath, G.; Macknick, J.

2013-03-01

This article provides consolidated estimates of water withdrawal and water consumption for the full life cycle of selected electricity generating technologies, which includes component manufacturing, fuel acquisition, processing, and transport, and power plant operation and decommissioning. Estimates were gathered through a broad search of publicly available sources, screened for quality and relevance, and harmonized for methodological differences. Published estimates vary substantially, due in part to differences in production pathways, in defined boundaries, and in performance parameters. Despite limitations to available data, we find that: water used for cooling of thermoelectric power plants dominates the life cycle water use in most cases; the coal, natural gas, and nuclear fuel cycles require substantial water per megawatt-hour in most cases; and, a substantial proportion of life cycle water use per megawatt-hour is required for the manufacturing and construction of concentrating solar, geothermal, photovoltaic, and wind power facilities. On the basis of the best available evidence for the evaluated technologies, total life cycle water use appears lowest for electricity generated by photovoltaics and wind, and highest for thermoelectric generation technologies. This report provides the foundation for conducting water use impact assessments of the power sector while also identifying gaps in data that could guide future research.

Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) Users Guide

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-01-01

ARL-TR-7573● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s Guide by David P Sauter...not return it to the originator. ARL-TR-7573 ● JAN 2016 US Army Research Laboratory Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER...2016 2. REPORT TYPE Final 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 09/2015–11/2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Prediction of Wind Energy Resources (PoWER) User’s

Oxidation of aluminum alloy cladding for research and test reactor fuel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kim, Yeon Soo; Hofman, G. L.; Robinson, A. B.; Snelgrove, J. L.; Hanan, N.

2008-08-01

The oxide thicknesses on aluminum alloy cladding were measured for the test plates from irradiation tests RERTR-6 and 7A in the ATR (advanced test reactor). The measured thicknesses were substantially lower than those of test plates with similar power from other reactors available in the literature. The main reason is believed to be due to the lower pH (pH 5.1-5.3) of the primary coolant water in the ATR than in the other reactors (pH 5.9-6.5) for which we have data. An empirical model for oxide film thickness predictions on aluminum alloy used as fuel cladding in the test reactors was developed as a function of irradiation time, temperature, surface heat flux, pH, and coolant flow rate. The applicable ranges of pH and coolant flow rates cover most research and test reactors. The predictions by the new model are in good agreement with the in-pile test data available in the literature as well as with the RERTR test data measured in the ATR.

Monte Carlo approach in assessing damage in higher order structures of DNA

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chatterjee, A.; Schmidt, J. B.; Holley, W. R.

1994-01-01

We have developed a computer monitor of nuclear DNA in the form of chromatin fibre. The fibres are modeled as a ideal solenoid consisting of twenty helical turns with six nucleosomes per turn. The chromatin model, in combination with are Monte Carlo theory of radiation damage induces by charged particles, based on general features of tack structure and stopping power theory, has been used to evaluate the influence of DNA structure on initial damage. An interesting has emerged from our calculations. Our calculated results predict the existence of strong spatial correlations in damage sites associated with the symmetries in the solenoidal model. We have calculated spectra of short fragments of double stranded DNA produced by multiple double strand breaks induced by both high and low LET radiation. The spectra exhibit peaks at multiples of approximately 85 base pairs (the nucleosome periodicity), and approximately 1000 base pairs (solenoid periodicity). Preliminary experiments to investigate the fragment distributions from irradiated DNA, made by B. Rydberg at Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, confirm the existence of short DNA fragments and are in substantial agreement with the predictions of our theory.

Voltage control on a train system

DOEpatents

Gordon, Susanna P.; Evans, John A.

2004-01-20

The present invention provides methods for preventing low train voltages and managing interference, thereby improving the efficiency, reliability, and passenger comfort associated with commuter trains. An algorithm implementing neural network technology is used to predict low voltages before they occur. Once voltages are predicted, then multiple trains can be controlled to prevent low voltage events. Further, algorithms for managing inference are presented in the present invention. Different types of interference problems are addressed in the present invention such as "Interference During Acceleration", "Interference Near Station Stops", and "Interference During Delay Recovery." Managing such interference avoids unnecessary brake/acceleration cycles during acceleration, immediately before station stops, and after substantial delays. Algorithms are demonstrated to avoid oscillatory brake/acceleration cycles due to interference and to smooth the trajectories of closely following trains. This is achieved by maintaining sufficient following distances to avoid unnecessary braking/accelerating. These methods generate smooth train trajectories, making for a more comfortable ride, and improve train motor reliability by avoiding unnecessary mode-changes between propulsion and braking. These algorithms can also have a favorable impact on traction power system requirements and energy consumption.

Method of managing interference during delay recovery on a train system

DOEpatents

Gordon, Susanna P.; Evans, John A.

2005-12-27

The present invention provides methods for preventing low train voltages and managing interference, thereby improving the efficiency, reliability, and passenger comfort associated with commuter trains. An algorithm implementing neural network technology is used to predict low voltages before they occur. Once voltages are predicted, then multiple trains can be controlled to prevent low voltage events. Further, algorithms for managing inference are presented in the present invention. Different types of interference problems are addressed in the present invention such as "Interference During Acceleration", "Interference Near Station Stops", and "Interference During Delay Recovery." Managing such interference avoids unnecessary brake/acceleration cycles during acceleration, immediately before station stops, and after substantial delays. Algorithms are demonstrated to avoid oscillatory brake/acceleration cycles due to interference and to smooth the trajectories of closely following trains. This is achieved by maintaining sufficient following distances to avoid unnecessary braking/accelerating. These methods generate smooth train trajectories, making for a more comfortable ride, and improve train motor reliability by avoiding unnecessary mode-changes between propulsion and braking. These algorithms can also have a favorable impact on traction power system requirements and energy consumption.

Efficient high density train operations

DOEpatents

Gordon, Susanna P.; Evans, John A.

2001-01-01

The present invention provides methods for preventing low train voltages and managing interference, thereby improving the efficiency, reliability, and passenger comfort associated with commuter trains. An algorithm implementing neural network technology is used to predict low voltages before they occur. Once voltages are predicted, then multiple trains can be controlled to prevent low voltage events. Further, algorithms for managing inference are presented in the present invention. Different types of interference problems are addressed in the present invention such as "Interference. During Acceleration", "Interference Near Station Stops", and "Interference During Delay Recovery." Managing such interference avoids unnecessary brake/acceleration cycles during acceleration, immediately before station stops, and after substantial delays. Algorithms are demonstrated to avoid oscillatory brake/acceleration cycles due to interference and to smooth the trajectories of closely following trains. This is achieved by maintaining sufficient following distances to avoid unnecessary braking/accelerating. These methods generate smooth train trajectories, making for a more comfortable ride, and improve train motor reliability by avoiding unnecessary mode-changes between propulsion and braking. These algorithms can also have a favorable impact on traction power system requirements and energy consumption.

Analysis and experimental evaluation of shunt active power filter for power quality improvement based on predictive direct power control.

PubMed

Aissa, Oualid; Moulahoum, Samir; Colak, Ilhami; Babes, Badreddine; Kabache, Nadir

2017-10-12

This paper discusses the use of the concept of classical and predictive direct power control for shunt active power filter function. These strategies are used to improve the active power filter performance by compensation of the reactive power and the elimination of the harmonic currents drawn by non-linear loads. A theoretical analysis followed by a simulation using MATLAB/Simulink software for the studied techniques has been established. Moreover, two test benches have been carried out using the dSPACE card 1104 for the classic and predictive DPC control to evaluate the studied methods in real time. Obtained results are presented and compared in this paper to confirm the superiority of the predictive technique. To overcome the pollution problems caused by the consumption of fossil fuels, renewable energies are the alternatives recommended to ensure green energy. In the same context, the tested predictive filter can easily be supplied by a renewable energy source that will give its impact to enhance the power quality.

How does the Earth system generate and maintain thermodynamic disequilibrium and what does it imply for the future of the planet?

PubMed Central

Kleidon, Axel

2012-01-01

The Earth's chemical composition far from chemical equilibrium is unique in our Solar System, and this uniqueness has been attributed to the presence of widespread life on the planet. Here, I show how this notion can be quantified using non-equilibrium thermodynamics. Generating and maintaining disequilibrium in a thermodynamic variable requires the extraction of power from another thermodynamic gradient, and the second law of thermodynamics imposes fundamental limits on how much power can be extracted. With this approach and associated limits, I show that the ability of abiotic processes to generate geochemical free energy that can be used to transform the surface–atmosphere environment is strongly limited to less than 1 TW. Photosynthetic life generates more than 200 TW by performing photochemistry, thereby substantiating the notion that a geochemical composition far from equilibrium can be a sign for strong biotic activity. Present-day free energy consumption by human activity in the form of industrial activity and human appropriated net primary productivity is of the order of 50 TW and therefore constitutes a considerable term in the free energy budget of the planet. When aiming to predict the future of the planet, we first note that since global changes are closely related to this consumption of free energy, and the demands for free energy by human activity are anticipated to increase substantially in the future, the central question in the context of predicting future global change is then how human free energy demands can increase sustainably without negatively impacting the ability of the Earth system to generate free energy. This question could be evaluated with climate models, and the potential deficiencies in these models to adequately represent the thermodynamics of the Earth system are discussed. Then, I illustrate the implications of this thermodynamic perspective by discussing the forms of renewable energy and planetary engineering that would enhance the overall free energy generation and, thereby ‘empower’ the future of the planet. PMID:22291221

Variable Selection for Regression Models of Percentile Flows

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Fouad, G.

2017-12-01

Percentile flows describe the flow magnitude equaled or exceeded for a given percent of time, and are widely used in water resource management. However, these statistics are normally unavailable since most basins are ungauged. Percentile flows of ungauged basins are often predicted using regression models based on readily observable basin characteristics, such as mean elevation. The number of these independent variables is too large to evaluate all possible models. A subset of models is typically evaluated using automatic procedures, like stepwise regression. This ignores a large variety of methods from the field of feature (variable) selection and physical understanding of percentile flows. A study of 918 basins in the United States was conducted to compare an automatic regression procedure to the following variable selection methods: (1) principal component analysis, (2) correlation analysis, (3) random forests, (4) genetic programming, (5) Bayesian networks, and (6) physical understanding. The automatic regression procedure only performed better than principal component analysis. Poor performance of the regression procedure was due to a commonly used filter for multicollinearity, which rejected the strongest models because they had cross-correlated independent variables. Multicollinearity did not decrease model performance in validation because of a representative set of calibration basins. Variable selection methods based strictly on predictive power (numbers 2-5 from above) performed similarly, likely indicating a limit to the predictive power of the variables. Similar performance was also reached using variables selected based on physical understanding, a finding that substantiates recent calls to emphasize physical understanding in modeling for predictions in ungauged basins. The strongest variables highlighted the importance of geology and land cover, whereas widely used topographic variables were the weakest predictors. Variables suffered from a high degree of multicollinearity, possibly illustrating the co-evolution of climatic and physiographic conditions. Given the ineffectiveness of many variables used here, future work should develop new variables that target specific processes associated with percentile flows.

Neutron responsive self-powered radiation detector

DOEpatents

Brown, Donald P.; Cannon, Collins P.

1978-01-01

An improved neutron responsive self-powered radiation detector is disclosed in which the neutron absorptive central emitter has a substantially neutron transmissive conductor collector sheath spaced about the emitter and the space between the emitter and collector sheath is evacuated.

The aerodynamic cost of flight in the short-tailed fruit bat (Carollia perspicillata): comparing theory with measurement

PubMed Central

von Busse, Rhea; Waldman, Rye M.; Swartz, Sharon M.; Voigt, Christian C.; Breuer, Kenneth S.

2014-01-01

Aerodynamic theory has long been used to predict the power required for animal flight, but widely used models contain many simplifications. It has been difficult to ascertain how closely biological reality matches model predictions, largely because of the technical challenges of accurately measuring the power expended when an animal flies. We designed a study to measure flight speed-dependent aerodynamic power directly from the kinetic energy contained in the wake of bats flying in a wind tunnel. We compared these measurements with two theoretical predictions that have been used for several decades in diverse fields of vertebrate biology and to metabolic measurements from a previous study using the same individuals. A high-accuracy displaced laser sheet stereo particle image velocimetry experimental design measured the wake velocities in the Trefftz plane behind four bats flying over a range of speeds (3–7 m s−1). We computed the aerodynamic power contained in the wake using a novel interpolation method and compared these results with the power predicted by Pennycuick's and Rayner's models. The measured aerodynamic power falls between the two theoretical predictions, demonstrating that the models effectively predict the appropriate range of flight power, but the models do not accurately predict minimum power or maximum range speeds. Mechanical efficiency—the ratio of aerodynamic power output to metabolic power input—varied from 5.9% to 9.8% for the same individuals, changing with flight speed. PMID:24718450

Predicted MHC peptide binding promiscuity explains MHC class I 'hotspots' of antigen presentation defined by mass spectrometry eluted ligand data.

PubMed

Jappe, Emma Christine; Kringelum, Jens; Trolle, Thomas; Nielsen, Morten

2018-02-15

Peptides that bind to and are presented by MHC class I and class II molecules collectively make up the immunopeptidome. In the context of vaccine development, an understanding of the immunopeptidome is essential, and much effort has been dedicated to its accurate and cost-effective identification. Current state-of-the-art methods mainly comprise in silico tools for predicting MHC binding, which is strongly correlated with peptide immunogenicity. However, only a small proportion of the peptides that bind to MHC molecules are, in fact, immunogenic, and substantial work has been dedicated to uncovering additional determinants of peptide immunogenicity. In this context, and in light of recent advancements in mass spectrometry (MS), the existence of immunological hotspots has been given new life, inciting the hypothesis that hotspots are associated with MHC class I peptide immunogenicity. We here introduce a precise terminology for defining these hotspots and carry out a systematic analysis of MS and in silico predicted hotspots. We find that hotspots defined from MS data are largely captured by peptide binding predictions, enabling their replication in silico. This leads us to conclude that hotspots, to a great degree, are simply a result of promiscuous HLA binding, which disproves the hypothesis that the identification of hotspots provides novel information in the context of immunogenic peptide prediction. Furthermore, our analyses demonstrate that the signal of ligand processing, although present in the MS data, has very low predictive power to discriminate between MS and in silico defined hotspots. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Prediction of anaerobic power values from an abbreviated WAnT protocol.

PubMed

Stickley, Christopher D; Hetzler, Ronald K; Kimura, Iris F

2008-05-01

The traditional 30-second Wingate anaerobic test (WAnT) is a widely used anaerobic power assessment protocol. An abbreviated protocol has been shown to decrease the mild to severe physical discomfort often associated with the WAnT. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine whether a 20-second WAnT protocol could be used to accurately predict power values of a standard 30-second WAnT. In 96 college females, anaerobic power variables were assessed using a standard 30-second WAnT protocol. Maximum power values as well as instantaneous power at 10, 15, and 20 seconds were recorded. Based on these results, stepwise regression analysis was performed to determine the accuracy with which mean power, minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue for a standard 30-second WAnT could be predicted from values obtained during the first 20 seconds of testing. Mean power values showed the highest level of predictability (R2 = 0.99) from the 20-second values. Minimum power, 30-second power, and percentage of fatigue also showed high levels of predictability (R2 = 0.91, 0.84, and 0.84, respectively) using only values obtained during the first 20 seconds of the protocol. An abbreviated (20-second) WAnT protocol appears to effectively predict results of a standard 30-second WAnT in college-age females, allowing for comparison of data to published norms. A shortened test may allow for a decrease in unwanted side effects associated with the traditional WAnT protocol.

Power System for Venus Surface Exploration

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landis, Geoffrey A.; Mellott, Kenneth

2002-01-01

A radioisotope power and cooling system is designed to provide electrical power for a probe operating on the surface of Venus. Most foreseeable electronics devices and sensors cannot operate at the 450 C ambient surface temperature of Venus. Because the mission duration is substantially long and the use of thermal mass to maintain an operable temperature range is likely impractical, some type of active refrigeration may be required to keep electronic components at a temperature below ambient. The fundamental cooling parameters are the cold sink temperature, the hot sink temperature, and the amount of heat to be removed. In this instance, it is anticipated that electronics would have a nominal operating temperature of 300 C. Due to the highly thermal convective nature of the high-density (90 bar CO2) atmosphere, the hot sink temperature was assumed to be 50 C, which provided a 500 C temperature of the cooler's heat rejecter to the ambient atmosphere. The majority of the heat load on the cooler is from the high temperature ambient surface environment on Venus, with a small contribution of heat generation from electronics and sensors. Both thermoelectric (RTG) and dynamic power conversion systems were analyzed, based on use of a standard isotope (General-purpose heat source, or GPHS) brick. For the radioisotope Stirling power converter configuration designed, the Sage model predicts a thermodynamic power output capacity of 478.1 watts, which slightly exceeds the required 469.1 watts. The hot sink temperature is 1200 C, and the cold sink temperature is 500 C. The required heat input is 1740 watts. This gives a thermodynamic efficiency of 27.48 %. It is estimated that the mechanical efficiency of the power converter design is on the order of 85 %, based on experimental measurements taken from 500-watt power class, laboratory-tested Stirling engines. The overall efficiency is calculated to be 23.36 %. The mass of the power converter is estimated at approximately 21.6 kg. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Power of an Adaptive Trial Design for Endovascular Stroke Studies: Simulations Using IMS (Interventional Management of Stroke) III Data.

PubMed

Lansberg, Maarten G; Bhat, Ninad S; Yeatts, Sharon D; Palesch, Yuko Y; Broderick, Joseph P; Albers, Gregory W; Lai, Tze L; Lavori, Philip W

2016-12-01

Adaptive trial designs that allow enrichment of the study population through subgroup selection can increase the chance of a positive trial when there is a differential treatment effect among patient subgroups. The goal of this study is to illustrate the potential benefit of adaptive subgroup selection in endovascular stroke studies. We simulated the performance of a trial design with adaptive subgroup selection and compared it with that of a traditional design. Outcome data were based on 90-day modified Rankin Scale scores, observed in IMS III (Interventional Management of Stroke III), among patients with a vessel occlusion on baseline computed tomographic angiography (n=382). Patients were categorized based on 2 methods: (1) according to location of the arterial occlusive lesion and onset-to-randomization time and (2) according to onset-to-randomization time alone. The power to demonstrate a treatment benefit was based on 10 000 trial simulations for each design. The treatment effect was relatively homogeneous across categories when patients were categorized based on arterial occlusive lesion and time. Consequently, the adaptive design had similar power (47%) compared with the fixed trial design (45%). There was a differential treatment effect when patients were categorized based on time alone, resulting in greater power with the adaptive design (82%) than with the fixed design (57%). These simulations, based on real-world patient data, indicate that adaptive subgroup selection has merit in endovascular stroke trials as it substantially increases power when the treatment effect differs among subgroups in a predicted pattern. © 2016 American Heart Association, Inc.

A record-based case-control study of natural background radiation and the incidence of childhood leukaemia and other cancers in Great Britain during 1980–2006

PubMed Central

Kendall, Gerald M.; Little, Mark P.; Wakeford, Richard; Bunch, Kathryn J.; Miles, Jon C.H.; Vincent, Timothy J.; Meara, Jill R.; Murphy, Michael F.G.

2014-01-01

We conducted a large record-based case-control study testing associations between childhood cancer and natural background radiation. Cases (27 447) born and diagnosed in Great Britain during 1980–2006 and matched cancer-free controls (36 793) were from the National Registry of Childhood Tumours. Radiation exposures were estimated for mother’s residence at the child’s birth from national databases, using the County District mean for gamma-rays, and a predictive map based on domestic measurements grouped by geological boundaries for radon. There was 12% excess relative risk (95% CI 3, 22; 2-sided p=0.01) of childhood leukaemia per millisievert of cumulative red-bone-marrow dose from gamma-radiation; the analogous association for radon was not significant, excess relative risk 3% (95% CI −4, 11; p=0.35). Associations for other childhood cancers were not significant for either exposure. Excess risk was insensitive to adjustment for measures of socio-economic status. The statistically significant leukaemia risk reported in this reasonably-powered study (power ~50%) is consistent with high dose-rate predictions. Substantial bias is unlikely, and we cannot identify mechanisms by which confounding might plausibly account for the association, which we regard as likely to be causal. The study supports the extrapolation of high dose-rate risk models to protracted exposures at natural background exposure levels. PMID:22766784

Electrical power generating system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nola, F. J. (Inventor)

1983-01-01

A power generating system for adjusting coupling an induction motor, as a generator, to an A.C. power line wherein the motor and power line are connected through a triac is described. The triac is regulated to normally turn on at a relatively late point in each half cycle of its operation, whereby at less than operating speed, and thus when the induction motor functions as a motor rather than as a generator, power consumption from the line is substantially reduced.

26 CFR 1.674(d)-2 - Limitations on exceptions in section 674 (b), (c), and (d).

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... TREASURY (CONTINUED) INCOME TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Grantors and Others Treated As Substantial Owners § 1.674(d)-2 Limitations on exceptions in section 674 (b), (c), and (d). (a) Power to remove trustee. A power in the grantor to remove, substitute, or add trustees (other than a power exercisable only...

Symbolic racism and Whites' attitudes towards punitive and preventive crime policies.

PubMed

Green, Eva G T; Staerklé, Christian; Sears, David O

2006-08-01

This study analyzes the determinants of Whites' support for punitive and preventive crime policies. It focuses on the predictive power of beliefs about race as described by symbolic racism theory. A dataset with 849 White respondents from three waves of the Los Angeles County Social Survey was used. In order to assess the weight of racial factors in crime policy attitudes, the effects of a range of race-neutral attitude determinants were controlled for, namely individual and structural crime attributions, perceived seriousness of crime, crime victimization, conservatism and news exposure. Results show a strong effect of symbolic racism on both types of crime policies, and in particular on punitive policies. High levels of symbolic racism are associated with support for tough, punitive crime policies and with opposition to preventive policies. Sub-dimensions of symbolic racism qualified these relationships, by showing that internal symbolic racism (assessing perceived individual deficiencies of Blacks) was most strongly predictive of punitiveness, whereas external symbolic racism (denial of institutional discrimination) predicted opposition to structural remedies. On the whole, despite the effects of race-neutral factors, the impact of symbolic racism on policy attitudes was substantial. Thus, White public opinion on both punitive and preventive crime policies is at least partially driven by racial prejudice.

Exploring the Effects of Low Power Schemas in Mothers.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Mills, Rosemary S. L.

1999-01-01

Assessed whether low perceived maternal power and temperamentally fearful preschool-aged daughters predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol and internalizing symptoms in daughters 2 years later. Found that low perceived maternal power predicted subsequent maternal overcontrol with initially fearful daughters but did not predict subsequent…

Explanatory Power of Multi-scale Physical Descriptors in Modeling Benthic Indices Across Nested Ecoregions of the Pacific Northwest

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Holburn, E. R.; Bledsoe, B. P.; Poff, N. L.; Cuhaciyan, C. O.

2005-05-01

Using over 300 R/EMAP sites in OR and WA, we examine the relative explanatory power of watershed, valley, and reach scale descriptors in modeling variation in benthic macroinvertebrate indices. Innovative metrics describing flow regime, geomorphic processes, and hydrologic-distance weighted watershed and valley characteristics are used in multiple regression and regression tree modeling to predict EPT richness, % EPT, EPT/C, and % Plecoptera. A nested design using seven ecoregions is employed to evaluate the influence of geographic scale and environmental heterogeneity on the explanatory power of individual and combined scales. Regression tree models are constructed to explain variability while identifying threshold responses and interactions. Cross-validated models demonstrate differences in the explanatory power associated with single-scale and multi-scale models as environmental heterogeneity is varied. Models explaining the greatest variability in biological indices result from multi-scale combinations of physical descriptors. Results also indicate that substantial variation in benthic macroinvertebrate response can be explained with process-based watershed and valley scale metrics derived exclusively from common geospatial data. This study outlines a general framework for identifying key processes driving macroinvertebrate assemblages across a range of scales and establishing the geographic extent at which various levels of physical description best explain biological variability. Such information can guide process-based stratification to avoid spurious comparison of dissimilar stream types in bioassessments and ensure that key environmental gradients are adequately represented in sampling designs.

Model predictive direct power control for active power decoupled single-phase quasi- Z -source inverter

DOE PAGES

Liu, Yushan; Ge, Baoming; Abu-Rub, Haitham; ...

2016-06-14

In this study, the active power filter (APF) that consists of a half-bridge leg and an ac capacitor is integrated in the single-phase quasi-Z-source inverter (qZSI) in this paper to avoid the second harmonic power flowing into the dc side. The capacitor of APF buffers the second harmonic power of the load, and the ac capacitor allows highly pulsating ac voltage, so that the capacitances of both dc and ac sides can be small. A model predictive direct power control (DPC) is further proposed to achieve the purpose of this newtopology through predicting the capacitor voltage of APF at eachmore » sampling period and ensuring the APF power to track the second harmonic power of single-phase qZSI. Simulation and experimental results verify the model predictive DPC for the APF-integrated single-phase qZSI.« less

Potentiality Prediction of Electric Power Replacement Based on Power Market Development Strategy

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miao, Bo; Yang, Shuo; Liu, Qiang; Lin, Jingyi; Zhao, Le; Liu, Chang; Li, Bin

2017-05-01

The application of electric power replacement plays an important role in promoting the development of energy conservation and emission reduction in our country. To exploit the potentiality of regional electric power replacement, the regional GDP (gross domestic product) and energy consumption are taken as potentiality evaluation indicators. The principal component factors are extracted with PCA (principal component analysis), and the integral potentiality analysis is made to the potentiality of electric power replacement in the national various regions; a region is taken as a research object, and the potentiality of electric power replacement is defined and quantified. The analytical model for the potentiality of multi-scenario electric power replacement is developed, and prediction is made to the energy consumption with the grey prediction model. The relevant theoretical research is utilized to realize prediction analysis on the potentiality amount of multi-scenario electric power replacement.

Model predictive direct power control for active power decoupled single-phase quasi- Z -source inverter

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Liu, Yushan; Ge, Baoming; Abu-Rub, Haitham

In this study, the active power filter (APF) that consists of a half-bridge leg and an ac capacitor is integrated in the single-phase quasi-Z-source inverter (qZSI) in this paper to avoid the second harmonic power flowing into the dc side. The capacitor of APF buffers the second harmonic power of the load, and the ac capacitor allows highly pulsating ac voltage, so that the capacitances of both dc and ac sides can be small. A model predictive direct power control (DPC) is further proposed to achieve the purpose of this newtopology through predicting the capacitor voltage of APF at eachmore » sampling period and ensuring the APF power to track the second harmonic power of single-phase qZSI. Simulation and experimental results verify the model predictive DPC for the APF-integrated single-phase qZSI.« less

Bayesian predictive power: choice of prior and some recommendations for its use as probability of success in drug development.

PubMed

Rufibach, Kaspar; Burger, Hans Ulrich; Abt, Markus

2016-09-01

Bayesian predictive power, the expectation of the power function with respect to a prior distribution for the true underlying effect size, is routinely used in drug development to quantify the probability of success of a clinical trial. Choosing the prior is crucial for the properties and interpretability of Bayesian predictive power. We review recommendations on the choice of prior for Bayesian predictive power and explore its features as a function of the prior. The density of power values induced by a given prior is derived analytically and its shape characterized. We find that for a typical clinical trial scenario, this density has a u-shape very similar, but not equal, to a β-distribution. Alternative priors are discussed, and practical recommendations to assess the sensitivity of Bayesian predictive power to its input parameters are provided. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Enhanced compressed sensing for visual target tracking in wireless visual sensor networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiang, Guo

2017-11-01

Moving object tracking in wireless sensor networks (WSNs) has been widely applied in various fields. Designing low-power WSNs for the limited resources of the sensor, such as energy limitation, energy restriction, and bandwidth constraints, is of high priority. However, most existing works focus on only single conflicting optimization criteria. An efficient compressive sensing technique based on a customized memory gradient pursuit algorithm with early termination in WSNs is presented, which strikes compelling trade-offs among energy dissipation for wireless transmission, certain types of bandwidth, and minimum storage. Then, the proposed approach adopts an unscented particle filter to predict the location of the target. The experimental results with a theoretical analysis demonstrate the substantially superior effectiveness of the proposed model and framework in regard to the energy and speed under the resource limitation of a visual sensor node.

The DIMA web resource--exploring the protein domain network.

PubMed

Pagel, Philipp; Oesterheld, Matthias; Stümpflen, Volker; Frishman, Dmitrij

2006-04-15

Conserved domains represent essential building blocks of most known proteins. Owing to their role as modular components carrying out specific functions they form a network based both on functional relations and direct physical interactions. We have previously shown that domain interaction networks provide substantially novel information with respect to networks built on full-length protein chains. In this work we present a comprehensive web resource for exploring the Domain Interaction MAp (DIMA), interactively. The tool aims at integration of multiple data sources and prediction techniques, two of which have been implemented so far: domain phylogenetic profiling and experimentally demonstrated domain contacts from known three-dimensional structures. A powerful yet simple user interface enables the user to compute, visualize, navigate and download domain networks based on specific search criteria. http://mips.gsf.de/genre/proj/dima

The distributional preferences of an elite.

PubMed

Fisman, Raymond; Jakiela, Pamela; Kariv, Shachar; Markovits, Daniel

2015-09-18

We studied the distributional preferences of an elite cadre of Yale Law School students, a group that will assume positions of power in U.S. society. Our experimental design allows us to test whether redistributive decisions are consistent with utility maximization and to decompose underlying preferences into two qualitatively different tradeoffs: fair-mindedness versus self-interest, and equality versus efficiency. Yale Law School subjects are more consistent than subjects drawn from the American Life Panel, a diverse sample of Americans. Relative to the American Life Panel, Yale Law School subjects are also less fair-minded and substantially more efficiency-focused. We further show that our measure of equality-efficiency tradeoffs predicts Yale Law School students' career choices: Equality-minded subjects are more likely to be employed at nonprofit organizations. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Molten uranium dioxide structure and dynamics

DOE PAGES

Skinner, L. B.; Parise, J. B.; Benmore, C. J.; ...

2014-11-21

Uranium dioxide (UO 2) is the major nuclear fuel component of fission power reactors. A key concern during severe accidents is the melting and leakage of radioactive UO 2 as it corrodes through its zirconium cladding and steel containment. Yet, the very high temperatures (>3140 kelvin) and chemical reactivity of molten UO 2 have prevented structural studies. In this work, we combine laser heating, sample levitation, and synchrotron x-rays to obtain pair distribution function measurements of hot solid and molten UO 2. The hot solid shows a substantial increase in oxygen disorder around the lambda transition (2670 K) but negligiblemore » U-O coordination change. On melting, the average U-O coordination drops from 8 to 6.7 ± 0.5. Molecular dynamics models refined to this structure predict higher U-U mobility than 8-coordinated melts.« less

The trigeneration cycle as a way to create multipurpose stationary power plants based on conversion of aeroderivative turbofan engines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Varaksin, A. Yu.; Arbekov, A. N.; Inozemtsev, A. A.

2014-10-01

A schematic cycle is considered, and thermodynamic analysis is performed to substantiate the possibility of creating multipurpose industrial power plants, operating on a trigeneration cycle, based on production-type turbofan engines.

Power maximization of a point absorber wave energy converter using improved model predictive control

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Milani, Farideh; Moghaddam, Reihaneh Kardehi

2017-08-01

This paper considers controlling and maximizing the absorbed power of wave energy converters for irregular waves. With respect to physical constraints of the system, a model predictive control is applied. Irregular waves' behavior is predicted by Kalman filter method. Owing to the great influence of controller parameters on the absorbed power, these parameters are optimized by imperialist competitive algorithm. The results illustrate the method's efficiency in maximizing the extracted power in the presence of unknown excitation force which should be predicted by Kalman filter.

Air emissions due to wind and solar power.

PubMed

Katzenstein, Warren; Apt, Jay

2009-01-15

Renewables portfolio standards (RPS) encourage large-scale deployment of wind and solar electric power. Their power output varies rapidly, even when several sites are added together. In many locations, natural gas generators are the lowest cost resource available to compensate for this variability, and must ramp up and down quickly to keep the grid stable, affecting their emissions of NOx and CO2. We model a wind or solar photovoltaic plus gas system using measured 1-min time-resolved emissions and heat rate data from two types of natural gas generators, and power data from four wind plants and one solar plant. Over a wide range of renewable penetration, we find CO2 emissions achieve approximately 80% of the emissions reductions expected if the power fluctuations caused no additional emissions. Using steam injection, gas generators achieve only 30-50% of expected NOx emissions reductions, and with dry control NOx emissions increase substantially. We quantify the interaction between state RPSs and NOx constraints, finding that states with substantial RPSs could see significant upward pressure on NOx permit prices, if the gas turbines we modeled are representative of the plants used to mitigate wind and solar power variability.

Understanding future emissions from low-carbon power systems by integration of life-cycle assessment and integrated energy modelling

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pehl, Michaja; Arvesen, Anders; Humpenöder, Florian; Popp, Alexander; Hertwich, Edgar G.; Luderer, Gunnar

2017-12-01

Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO2eq kWh-1, compared with 3.5-12 gCO2eq kWh-1 for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (˜100 gCO2eq kWh-1), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.

Development and design of photovoltaic power prediction system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Zhijia; Zhou, Hai; Cheng, Xu

2018-02-01

In order to reduce the impact of power grid safety caused by volatility and randomness of the energy produced in photovoltaic power plants, this paper puts forward a construction scheme on photovoltaic power generation prediction system, introducing the technical requirements, system configuration and function of each module, and discussing the main technical features of the platform software development. The scheme has been applied in many PV power plants in the northwest of China. It shows that the system can produce reasonable prediction results, providing a right guidance for dispatching and efficient running for PV power plant.

Substantiated childhood maltreatment and young adulthood cannabis use disorders: A pre-birth cohort study.

PubMed

Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu; Najman, Jake Moses; Williams, Gail; Strathearn, Lane; Clavarino, Alexandra; Kisely, Steve

2017-10-01

This study investigates the association between exposure to prospectively-substantiated childhood maltreatment between 0 and 14 years of age and lifetime cannabis use, abuse and dependence reported at 21 years. Data were taken from 2526 (51.6% female) participants in the Mater Hospital-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy, a pre-birth, prospective, cohort study. Prospectively-substantiated cases of childhood maltreatment, reported to the government child protection agencies between 0 and 14 years of age, were linked to CIDI DSM-IV self-report data from the 21-year follow-up. Exposure to any childhood maltreatment, and childhood neglect in particular, predicted subsequent cannabis abuse with adjusted odds ratios (AORs) of 1.79 and 2.62, respectively. Any childhood maltreatment, physical abuse, emotional abuse and neglect predicted cannabis dependence with AORs of 2.47, 2.81, 2.44 and 2.68, respectively. The associations for an early age of onset of cannabis abuse and dependence were significant and consistent for maltreated children. In addition, frequency of maltreatment substantiations predicted cannabis abuse, dependence and an early age of onset of these disorders. The AORs for cannabis ever use without any DSM-IV cannabis disorder were 1.78 for any maltreatment and 2.15 for emotional abuse. Any childhood maltreatment and neglect predicted lifetime ever cannabis use, as well as cannabis use disorder. There was little evidence for any interaction between gender and different forms of childhood maltreatment and its association with cannabis use disorders. Physical abuse, emotional abuse and neglect, as well as multiple episodes of maltreatment independently predicted cannabis use disorders. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Phonovoltaic. III. Electron-phonon coupling and figure of merit of graphene:BN

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Melnick, Corey; Kaviany, Massoud

2016-12-01

The phonovoltaic cell harvests optical phonons like a photovoltaic harvests photons, that is, a nonequilibrium (hot) population of optical phonons (at temperature Tp ,O) more energetic than the band gap produces electron-hole pairs in a p -n junction, which separates these pairs to produce power. A phonovoltaic material requires an optical phonon mode more energetic than its band gap and much more energetic than the thermal energy (Ep ,O>Δ Ee ,g≫kBT ), which relaxes by generating electrons and power (at rate γ˙e -p) rather than acoustic phonons and heat (at rate γ˙p -p). Graphene (h-C) is the most promising material candidate: when its band gap is tuned to its optical phonon energy without greatly reducing the electron-phonon (e -p ) coupling, it reaches a substantial figure of merit [ZpV=Δ Ee ,gγ˙e -p/Ep ,O(γ˙e -p+γ˙p -p) ≈0.8 ] . A simple tight-binding (TB) model presented here predicts that lifting the sublattice symmetry of graphene in order to open a band gap proscribes the e -p interaction at the band edge, such that γ˙e -p→0 as Δ Ee ,g→Ep ,O . However, ab initio (DFT-LDA) simulations of layered h-C/BN and substitutional h-C:BN show that the e -p coupling remains substantial in these asymmetric crystals. Indeed, h-C:BN achieves a high figure of merit (ZpV≈0.6 ). At 300 K and for a Carnot limit of 0.5 (Tp ,O=600 K) , a h-C:BN phonovoltaic can reach an efficiency of ηpV≈0.2 , double the thermoelectric efficiency (Z T ≈1 ) under similar conditions.

Managing PV Power on Mars - MER Rovers

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Stella, Paul M.; Chin, Keith; Wood, Eric; Herman, Jennifer; Ewell, Richard

2009-01-01

The MER Rovers have recently completed over 5 years of operation! This is a remarkable demonstration of the capabilities of PV power on the Martian surface. The extended mission required the development of an efficient process to predict the power available to the rovers on a day-to-day basis. The performance of the MER solar arrays is quite unlike that of any other Space array and perhaps more akin to Terrestrial PV operation, although even severe by that comparison. The impact of unpredictable factors, such as atmospheric conditions and dust accumulation (and removal) on the panels limits the accurate prediction of array power to short time spans. Based on the above, it is clear that long term power predictions are not sufficiently accurate to allow for detailed long term planning. Instead, the power assessment is essentially a daily activity, effectively resetting the boundary points for the overall predictive power model. A typical analysis begins with the importing of the telemetry from each rover's previous day's power subsystem activities. This includes the array power generated, battery state-of-charge, rover power loads, and rover orientation, all as functions of time. The predicted performance for that day is compared to the actual performance to identify the extent of any differences. The model is then corrected for these changes. Details of JPL's MER power analysis procedure are presented, including the description of steps needed to provide the final prediction for the mission planners. A dust cleaning event of the solar array is also highlighted to illustrate the impact of Martian weather on solar array performance

Applications of the Electrodynamic Tether to Interstellar Travel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Matloff, Gregory L.; Johnson, Les

2005-01-01

After considering relevant properties of the local interstellar medium and defining a sample interstellar mission, this paper considers possible interstellar applications of the electrodynamic tether, or EDT. These include use of the EDT to provide on-board power and affect trajectory modifications and direct application of the EDT to starship acceleration. It is demonstrated that comparatively modest EDTs can provide substantial quantities of on-board power, if combined with a large-area electron-collection device such as the Cassenti toroidal-field ramscoop. More substantial tethers can be used to accomplish large-radius thrustless turns. Direct application of the EDT to starship acceleration is apparently infeasible.

Ground-Based and Space-Based Laser Beam Power Applications

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bozek, John M.

1995-01-01

A space power system based on laser beam power is sized to reduce mass, increase operational capabilities, and reduce complexity. The advantages of laser systems over solar-based systems are compared as a function of application. Power produced from the conversion of a laser beam that has been generated on the Earth's surface and beamed into cislunar space resulted in decreased round-trip time for Earth satellite electric propulsion tugs and a substantial landed mass savings for a lunar surface mission. The mass of a space-based laser system (generator in space and receiver near user) that beams down to an extraterrestrial airplane, orbiting spacecraft, surface outpost, or rover is calculated and compared to a solar system. In general, the advantage of low mass for these space-based laser systems is limited to high solar eclipse time missions at distances inside Jupiter. The power system mass is less in a continuously moving Mars rover or surface outpost using space-based laser technology than in a comparable solar-based power system, but only during dust storm conditions. Even at large distances for the Sun, the user-site portion of a space-based laser power system (e.g., the laser receiver component) is substantially less massive than a solar-based system with requisite on-board electrochemical energy storage.

NASA's Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project Unveils a New Geospatial Data Portal

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-03-16

NASA's Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project Unveils a New Geospatial Data Portal ... current POWER home page. The new POWER will include improved solar and meteorological data with all parameters available on a 0.5-degree ...

Communal and Agentic Interpersonal and Intergroup Motives Predict Preferences for Status Versus Power.

PubMed

Locke, Kenneth D; Heller, Sonja

2017-01-01

Seven studies involving 1,343 participants showed how circumplex models of social motives can help explain individual differences in preferences for status (having others' admiration) versus power (controlling valuable resources). Studies 1 to 3 and 7 concerned interpersonal motives in workplace contexts, and found that stronger communal motives (to have mutual trust, support, and cooperation) predicted being more attracted to status (but not power) and achieving more workplace status, while stronger agentic motives (to be firm, decisive, and influential) predicted being more attracted to and achieving more workplace power, and experiencing a stronger connection between workplace power and job satisfaction. Studies 4 to 6 found similar effects for intergroup motives: Stronger communal motives predicted wanting one's ingroup (e.g., country) to have status-but not power-relative to other groups. Finally, most people preferred status over power, and this was especially true for women, which was partially explained by women having stronger communal motives.

The predictive power of local properties of financial networks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Caraiani, Petre

2017-01-01

The literature on analyzing the dynamics of financial networks has focused so far on the predictive power of global measures of networks like entropy or index cohesive force. In this paper, I show that the local network properties have similar predictive power. I focus on key network measures like average path length, average degree or cluster coefficient, and also consider the diameter and the s-metric. Using Granger causality tests, I show that some of these measures have statistically significant prediction power with respect to the dynamics of aggregate stock market. Average path length is most robust relative to the frequency of data used or specification (index or growth rate). Most measures are found to have predictive power only for monthly frequency. Further evidences that support this view are provided through a simple regression model.

Predicting energy expenditure through hand rim propulsion power output in individuals who use wheelchairs.

PubMed

Conger, Scott A; Scott, Stacy N; Bassett, David R

2014-07-01

To examine the relationship between hand rim propulsion power and energy expenditure (EE) during wheelchair wheeling and to investigate whether adding other variables to the model could improve on the prediction of EE. Individuals who use manual wheelchairs (n=14) performed five different wheeling activities in a wheelchair with a PowerTap power meter hub built into the right rear wheel. Activities included wheeling on a smooth, level surface at three different speeds (4.5, 5.5 and 6.5 km/h), wheeling on a rubberised track at one speed (5.5 km/h) and wheeling on a sidewalk course that included uphill and downhill segments at a self-selected speed. EE was measured using a portable indirect calorimetry system. Stepwise linear regression was performed to predict EE from power output variables. A repeated-measures analysis of variance was used to compare the measured EE to the estimates from the power models. Bland-Altman plots were used to assess the agreement between the criterion values and the predicted values. EE and power were significantly correlated (r=0.694, p<0.001). Regression analysis yielded three significant prediction models utilising measured power; measured power and speed; and measured power, speed and heart rate. No significant differences were found between measured EE and any of the prediction models. EE can be accurately and precisely estimated based on hand rim propulsion power. These results indicate that power could be used as a method to assess EE in individuals who use wheelchairs. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

Progress and Challenges in Subseasonal Prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried

2003-01-01

While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on subseasonal time scales (approximately 2 weeks to 2 months) has been slow. In this talk I will highlight some of the recent progress that has been made to improve forecasts on subseasonal time scales and outline the challenges that we face both from an observational and modeling perspective. The talk will be based primarily on the results and conclusions of a recent NASA-sponsored workshop that focused on the subseasonal prediction problem. One of the key conclusions of that workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks, and that much of that predictability is currently untapped. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric phenomena such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American pattern, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation. I will end the talk by summarizing the recommendations and plans that have been put forward for accelerating progress on the subseasonal prediction problem.

18 CFR 292.210 - Petition alleging commitment of substantial monetary resources before October 16, 1986.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-04-01

... Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS UNDER... substantial monetary resources (as that term is defined in § 292.202(r)) to the development of the project. (b... monetary resources will be presumed if the applicant held a preliminary permit for the project and had...

18 CFR 292.210 - Petition alleging commitment of substantial monetary resources before October 16, 1986.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

... Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS UNDER... substantial monetary resources (as that term is defined in § 292.202(r)) to the development of the project. (b... monetary resources will be presumed if the applicant held a preliminary permit for the project and had...

18 CFR 292.210 - Petition alleging commitment of substantial monetary resources before October 16, 1986.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

... Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS UNDER... substantial monetary resources (as that term is defined in § 292.202(r)) to the development of the project. (b... monetary resources will be presumed if the applicant held a preliminary permit for the project and had...

18 CFR 292.210 - Petition alleging commitment of substantial monetary resources before October 16, 1986.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS UNDER... substantial monetary resources (as that term is defined in § 292.202(r)) to the development of the project. (b... monetary resources will be presumed if the applicant held a preliminary permit for the project and had...

18 CFR 292.210 - Petition alleging commitment of substantial monetary resources before October 16, 1986.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

... Power and Water Resources FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION, DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY REGULATIONS UNDER... substantial monetary resources (as that term is defined in § 292.202(r)) to the development of the project. (b... monetary resources will be presumed if the applicant held a preliminary permit for the project and had...

Predicting well-being longitudinally for mothers rearing offspring with intellectual and developmental disabilities.

PubMed

Grein, K A; Glidden, L M

2015-07-01

Well-being outcomes for parents of children with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) may vary from positive to negative at different times and for different measures of well-being. Predicting and explaining this variability has been a major focus of family research for reasons that have both theoretical and applied implications. The current study used data from a 23-year longitudinal investigation of adoptive and birth parents of children with IDD to determine which early child, mother and family characteristics would predict the variance in maternal outcomes 20 years after their original measurement. Using hierarchical regression analyses, we tested the predictive power of variables measured when children were 7 years old on outcomes of maternal well-being when children were 26 years old. Outcome variables included maternal self-report measures of depression and well-being. Final models of well-being accounted for 20% to 34% of variance. For most outcomes, Family Accord and/or the personality variable of Neuroticism (emotional stability/instability) were significant predictors, but some variables demonstrated a different pattern. These findings confirm that (1) characteristics of the child, mother and family during childhood can predict outcomes of maternal well-being 20 years later; and (2) different predictor-outcome relationships can vary substantially, highlighting the importance of using multiple measures to gain a more comprehensive understanding of maternal well-being. These results have implications for refining prognoses for parents and for tailoring service delivery to individual child, parent and family characteristics. © 2014 MENCAP and International Association of the Scientific Study of Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Conditional power and predictive power based on right censored data with supplementary auxiliary information.

PubMed

Sun, Libo; Wan, Ying

2018-04-22

Conditional power and predictive power provide estimates of the probability of success at the end of the trial based on the information from the interim analysis. The observed value of the time to event endpoint at the interim analysis could be biased for the true treatment effect due to early censoring, leading to a biased estimate of conditional power and predictive power. In such cases, the estimates and inference for this right censored primary endpoint are enhanced by incorporating a fully observed auxiliary variable. We assume a bivariate normal distribution of the transformed primary variable and a correlated auxiliary variable. Simulation studies are conducted that not only shows enhanced conditional power and predictive power but also can provide the framework for a more efficient futility interim analysis in terms of an improved accuracy in estimator, a smaller inflation in type II error and an optimal timing for such analysis. We also illustrated the new approach by a real clinical trial example. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The predictive power of Japanese candlestick charting in Chinese stock market

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chen, Shi; Bao, Si; Zhou, Yu

2016-09-01

This paper studies the predictive power of 4 popular pairs of two-day bullish and bearish Japanese candlestick patterns in Chinese stock market. Based on Morris' study, we give the quantitative details of definition of long candlestick, which is important in two-day candlestick pattern recognition but ignored by several previous researches, and we further give the quantitative definitions of these four pairs of two-day candlestick patterns. To test the predictive power of candlestick patterns on short-term price movement, we propose the definition of daily average return to alleviate the impact of correlation among stocks' overlap-time returns in statistical tests. To show the robustness of our result, two methods of trend definition are used for both the medium-market-value and large-market-value sample sets. We use Step-SPA test to correct for data snooping bias. Statistical results show that the predictive power differs from pattern to pattern, three of the eight patterns provide both short-term and relatively long-term prediction, another one pair only provide significant forecasting power within very short-term period, while the rest three patterns present contradictory results for different market value groups. For all the four pairs, the predictive power drops as predicting time increases, and forecasting power is stronger for stocks with medium market value than those with large market value.

Economic analysis for transmission operation and planning

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Zhou, Qun

2011-12-01

Restructuring of the electric power industry has caused dramatic changes in the use of transmission system. The increasing congestion conditions as well as the necessity of integrating renewable energy introduce new challenges and uncertainties to transmission operation and planning. Accurate short-term congestion forecasting facilitates market traders in bidding and trading activities. Cost sharing and recovery issue is a major impediment for long-term transmission investment to integrate renewable energy. In this research, a new short-term forecasting algorithm is proposed for predicting congestion, LMPs, and other power system variables based on the concept of system patterns. The advantage of this algorithm relative to standard statistical forecasting methods is that structural aspects underlying power market operations are exploited to reduce the forecasting error. The advantage relative to previously proposed structural forecasting methods is that data requirements are substantially reduced. Forecasting results based on a NYISO case study demonstrate the feasibility and accuracy of the proposed algorithm. Moreover, a negotiation methodology is developed to guide transmission investment for integrating renewable energy. Built on Nash Bargaining theory, the negotiation of investment plans and payment rate can proceed between renewable generation and transmission companies for cost sharing and recovery. The proposed approach is applied to Garver's six bus system. The numerical results demonstrate fairness and efficiency of the approach, and hence can be used as guidelines for renewable energy investors. The results also shed light on policy-making of renewable energy subsidies.

Contribution of limb momentum to power transfer in athletic wheelchair pushing.

PubMed

Masson, G; Bégin, M-A; Lopez Poncelas, M; Pelletier, S-K; Lessard, J-L; Laroche, J; Berrigan, F; Langelier, E; Smeesters, C; Rancourt, D

2016-09-06

Pushing capacity is a key parameter in athletic racing wheelchair performance. This study estimated the potential contribution of upper limb momentum to pushing. The question is relevant since it may affect the training strategy adopted by an athlete. A muscle-free Lagrangian dynamic model of the upper limb segments was developed and theoretical predictions of power transfer to the wheelchair were computed during the push phase. Results show that limb momentum capacity for pushing can be in the order of 40J per push cycle at 10m/s, but it varies with the specific pushing range chosen by the athlete. Although use of momentum could certainly help an athlete improve performance, quantifying the actual contribution of limb momentum to pushing is not trivial. A preliminary experimental investigation on an ergometer, along with a simplified model of the upper limb, suggests that momentum is not the sole contributor to power transfer to a wheelchair. Muscles substantially contribute to pushing, even at high speeds. Moreover, an optimal pushing range is challenging to find since it most likely differs if an athlete chooses a limb momentum pushing strategy versus a muscular exertion pushing strategy, or both at the same time. The study emphasizes the importance of controlling pushing range, although one should optimize it while also taking the dynamics of the recovery period into account. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Characterising the spatial variability of the tidal stream energy resource from floating turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ward, Sophie; Neill, Simon; Robins, Peter

2017-04-01

The shelf seas, in particular the northwest European shelf seas surrounding the UK, contain significant tidal power potential. Tidal stream energy is both predictable and reliable providing that sites are well-selected based upon the hydrodynamic regime and the device specifics. In this high resolution three-dimensional tidal modelling study, we investigate how the tidal stream resource around the Welsh coast (UK) varies with water depth and location, with particular focus on the Pembrokeshire region. The potential extractable energy for a floating tidal stream energy converter is compared with that for a bottom-fixed device, highlighting the need to vary the resource characterisation criteria based on device specifics. We demonstrate how small variations in the tidal current speeds - with hub depth or due to tidal asymmetry - can lead to substantial variations in potential power output. Further, the results indicate that power generation from floating tidal energy converters will be more significantly influenced by tidal elevations in regions characterised by a lower tidal range (more progressive waves) than regions that experience a high tidal range (standing waves). As numerical modelling capacity improves and tidal stream energy converter technologies develop, ongoing improved quantification of the tidal resource is needed, as well as consideration of the possible feedbacks of the devices and energy extraction on the hydrodynamic regime and the surrounding area.

The prediction of the impact of climatic factors on short-term electric power load based on the big data of smart city

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Qiu, Yunfei; Li, Xizhong; Zheng, Wei; Hu, Qinghe; Wei, Zhanmeng; Yue, Yaqin

2017-08-01

The climate changes have great impact on the residents’ electricity consumption, so the study on the impact of climatic factors on electric power load is of significance. In this paper, the effects of the data of temperature, rainfall and wind of smart city on short-term power load is studied to predict power load. The authors studied the relation between power load and daily temperature, rainfall and wind in the 31 days of January of one year. In the research, the authors used the Matlab neural network toolbox to establish the combinational forecasting model. The authors trained the original input data continuously to get the internal rules inside the data and used the rules to predict the daily power load in the next January. The prediction method relies on the accuracy of weather forecasting. If the weather forecasting is different from the actual weather, we need to correct the climatic factors to ensure accurate prediction.

Evaluating Upper-Body Strength and Power From a Single Test: The Ballistic Push-up.

PubMed

Wang, Ran; Hoffman, Jay R; Sadres, Eliahu; Bartolomei, Sandro; Muddle, Tyler W D; Fukuda, David H; Stout, Jeffrey R

2017-05-01

Wang, R, Hoffman, JR, Sadres, E, Bartolomei, S, Muddle, TWD, Fukuda, DH, and Stout, JR. Evaluating upper-body strength and power from a single test: the ballistic push-up. J Strength Cond Res 31(5): 1338-1345, 2017-The purpose of this study was to examine the reliability of the ballistic push-up (BPU) exercise and to develop a prediction model for both maximal strength (1 repetition maximum [1RM]) in the bench press exercise and upper-body power. Sixty recreationally active men completed a 1RM bench press and 2 BPU assessments in 3 separate testing sessions. Peak and mean force, peak and mean rate of force development, net impulse, peak velocity, flight time, and peak and mean power were determined. Intraclass correlation coefficients were used to examine the reliability of the BPU. Stepwise linear regression was used to develop 1RM bench press and power prediction equations. Intraclass correlation coefficient's ranged from 0.849 to 0.971 for the BPU measurements. Multiple regression analysis provided the following 1RM bench press prediction equation: 1RM = 0.31 × Mean Force - 1.64 × Body Mass + 0.70 (R = 0.837, standard error of the estimate [SEE] = 11 kg); time-based power prediction equation: Peak Power = 11.0 × Body Mass + 2012.3 × Flight Time - 338.0 (R = 0.658, SEE = 150 W), Mean Power = 6.7 × Body Mass + 1004.4 × Flight Time - 224.6 (R = 0.664, SEE = 82 W); and velocity-based power prediction equation: Peak Power = 8.1 × Body Mass + 818.6 × Peak Velocity - 762.0 (R = 0.797, SEE = 115 W); Mean Power = 5.2 × Body Mass + 435.9 × Peak Velocity - 467.7 (R = 0.838, SEE = 57 W). The BPU is a reliable test for both upper-body strength and power. Results indicate that the mean force generated from the BPU can be used to predict 1RM bench press, whereas peak velocity and flight time measured during the BPU can be used to predict upper-body power. These findings support the potential use of the BPU as a valid method to evaluate upper-body strength and power.

Limited contribution of permafrost carbon to methane release from thawing peatlands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cooper, Mark D. A.; Estop-Aragonés, Cristian; Fisher, James P.; Thierry, Aaron; Garnett, Mark H.; Charman, Dan J.; Murton, Julian B.; Phoenix, Gareth K.; Treharne, Rachael; Kokelj, Steve V.; Wolfe, Stephen A.; Lewkowicz, Antoni G.; Williams, Mathew; Hartley, Iain P.

2017-07-01

Models predict that thaw of permafrost soils at northern high latitudes will release tens of billions of tonnes of carbon (C) to the atmosphere by 2100 (refs ,,). The effect on the Earth’s climate depends strongly on the proportion of this C that is released as the more powerful greenhouse gas methane (CH4), rather than carbon dioxide (CO2) (refs ,); even if CH4 emissions represent just 2% of the C release, they would contribute approximately one-quarter of the climate forcing. In northern peatlands, thaw of ice-rich permafrost causes surface subsidence (thermokarst) and water-logging, exposing substantial stores (tens of kilograms of C per square meter, ref. ) of previously frozen organic matter to anaerobic conditions, and generating ideal conditions for permafrost-derived CH4 release. Here we show that, contrary to expectations, although substantial CH4 fluxes (>20 g CH4 m-2 yr-1) were recorded from thawing peatlands in northern Canada, only a small amount was derived from previously frozen C (<2 g CH4 m-2 yr-1). Instead, fluxes were driven by anaerobic decomposition of recent C inputs. We conclude that thaw-induced changes in surface wetness and wetland area, rather than the anaerobic decomposition of previously frozen C, may determine the effect of permafrost thaw on CH4 emissions from northern peatlands.

Long-time dynamics through parallel trajectory splicing

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Perez, Danny; Cubuk, Ekin D.; Waterland, Amos

2015-11-24

Simulating the atomistic evolution of materials over long time scales is a longstanding challenge, especially for complex systems where the distribution of barrier heights is very heterogeneous. Such systems are difficult to investigate using conventional long-time scale techniques, and the fact that they tend to remain trapped in small regions of configuration space for extended periods of time strongly limits the physical insights gained from short simulations. We introduce a novel simulation technique, Parallel Trajectory Splicing (ParSplice), that aims at addressing this problem through the timewise parallelization of long trajectories. The computational efficiency of ParSplice stems from a speculation strategymore » whereby predictions of the future evolution of the system are leveraged to increase the amount of work that can be concurrently performed at any one time, hence improving the scalability of the method. ParSplice is also able to accurately account for, and potentially reuse, a substantial fraction of the computational work invested in the simulation. We validate the method on a simple Ag surface system and demonstrate substantial increases in efficiency compared to previous methods. As a result, we then demonstrate the power of ParSplice through the study of topology changes in Ag 42Cu 13 core–shell nanoparticles.« less

Influence of substrate concentration and feed frequency on ammonia inhibition in microbial fuel cells

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tice, Ryan C.; Kim, Younggy

2014-12-01

Excessive amounts of ammonia are known to inhibit exoelectrogenic activities in microbial fuel cells (MFCs). However, the threshold ammonia concentration that triggers toxic effects is not consistent among literature papers, indicating that ammonia inhibition can be affected by other operational factors. Here, we examined the effect of substrate concentration and feed frequency on the capacity of exoelectrogenic bacteria to resist against ammonia inhibition. The high substrate condition (2 g L-1 sodium acetate, 2-day feed) maintained high electricity generation (between 1.1 and 1.9 W m-2) for total ammonia concentration up to 4000 mg-N L-1. The less frequent feed condition (2 g L-1 sodium acetate, 6-day feed) and the low substrate condition (0.67 g L-1 sodium acetate, 2-day feed) resulted in substantial decreases in electricity generation at total ammonia concentration of 2500 and 3000 mg-N L-1, respectively. It was determined that the power density curve serves as a better indicator than continuously monitored electric current for predicting ammonia inhibition in MFCs. The chemical oxygen demand (COD) removal gradually decreased at high ammonia concentration even without ammonia inhibition in electricity generation. The experimental results demonstrated that high substrate concentration and frequent feed substantially enhance the capacity of exoelectrogenic bacteria to resist against ammonia inhibition.

10 CFR 100.1 - Purpose.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... COMMISSION (CONTINUED) REACTOR SITE CRITERIA § 100.1 Purpose. (a) The purpose of this part is to establish approval requirements for proposed sites for stationary power and testing reactors subject to part 50 or part 52 of this chapter. (b) There exists a substantial base of knowledge regarding power reactor...

18 CFR 430.9 - Comprehensive plan policies.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... ground water levels, water quality degradation, permanent loss of storage capacity, or substantial impact... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Comprehensive plan policies. 430.9 Section 430.9 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER BASIN COMMISSION...

Method of optimizing performance of Rankine cycle power plants

DOEpatents

Pope, William L.; Pines, Howard S.; Doyle, Padraic A.; Silvester, Lenard F.

1982-01-01

A method for efficiently operating a Rankine cycle power plant (10) to maximize fuel utilization efficiency or energy conversion efficiency or minimize costs by selecting a turbine (22) fluid inlet state which is substantially in the area adjacent and including the transposed critical temperature line (46).

Wind Power predictability a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of Wind Generation Turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Thiesen, J.; Gulstad, L.; Ristic, I.; Maric, T.

2010-09-01

Summit: The wind power predictability is often a forgotten decision and planning factor for most major wind parks, both onshore and offshore. The results of the predictability are presented after having examined a number of European offshore and offshore parks power predictability by using three(3) mesoscale model IRIE_GFS and IRIE_EC and WRF. Full description: It is well known that the potential wind production is changing with latitude and complexity in terrain, but how big are the changes in the predictability and the economic impacts on a project? The concept of meteorological predictability has hitherto to some degree been neglected as a risk factor in the design, construction and operation of wind power plants. Wind power plants are generally built in places where the wind resources are high, but these are often also sites where the predictability of the wind and other weather parameters is comparatively low. This presentation addresses the question of whether higher predictability can outweigh lower average wind speeds with regard to the overall economy of a wind power project. Low predictability also tends to reduce the value of the energy produced. If it is difficult to forecast the wind on a site, it will also be difficult to predict the power production. This, in turn, leads to increased balance costs and a less reduced carbon emission from the renewable source. By investigating the output from three(3) mesoscale models IRIE and WRF, using ECMWF and GFS as boundary data over a forecasting period of 3 months for 25 offshore and onshore wind parks in Europe, the predictability are mapped. Three operational mesoscale models with two different boundary data have been chosen in order to eliminate the uncertainty with one mesoscale model. All mesoscale models are running in a 10 km horizontal resolution. The model output are converted into "day a head" wind turbine generation forecasts by using a well proven advanced physical wind power model. The power models are using a number of weather parameters like wind speed in different heights, friction velocity and DTHV. The 25 wind sites are scattered around in Europe and contains 4 offshore parks and 21 onshore parks in various terrain complexity. The "day a head" forecasts are compared with production data and predictability for the period February 2010-April 2010 are given in Mean Absolute Errors (MAE) and Root Mean Squared Errors (RMSE). The power predictability results are mapped for each turbine giving a clear picture of the predictability in Europe. . Finally a economic analysis are shown for each wind parks in different regimes of predictability will be compared with regard to the balance costs that result from errors in the wind power prediction. Analysis shows that it may very well be profitable to place wind parks in regions of lower, but more predictable wind ressource. Authors: Ivan Ristic, CTO Weather2Umberlla D.O.O Tomislav Maric, Meteorologist at Global Flow Solutions Vestas Wind Technology R&D Line Gulstad, Manager Global Flow Solutions Vestas Wind Technology R&D Jesper Thiesen, CEO ConWx ApS

Impact of cyclostationarity on fan broadband noise prediction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wohlbrandt, A.; Kissner, C.; Guérin, S.

2018-04-01

One of the dominant noise sources of modern Ultra High Bypass Ratio (UHBR) engines is the interaction of the rotor wakes with the leading edges of the stator vanes in the fan stage. While the tonal components of this noise generation mechanism are fairly well understood by now, the broadband components are not. This calls to further the understanding of the broadband noise generation in the fan stage. This article introduces a new extension to the Random Particle Mesh (RPM) method, which accommodates in-depth studies of the impact of cyclostationary wake characteristics on the broadband noise in the fan stage. The RPM method is used to synthesize a turbulence field in the stator domain using a URANS simulation characterized by time-periodic turbulence and mean flow. The rotor-stator interaction noise is predicted by a two-dimensional CAA computation of the stator cascade. The impact of cyclostationarity is decomposed into various effects, which are separately investigated. This leads to the finding that the periodic turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) and periodic flow have only a negligible effect on the radiated sound power. The impact of the periodic integral length scale (TLS) is, however, substantial. The limits of a stationary representation of the TLS are demonstrated making this new extension to the RPM method indispensable when background and wake TKE are of comparable level. Good agreement of the predictions with measurements obtained from the 2015 AIAA Fan Broadband Noise Prediction Workshop are also shown.

Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes

USGS Publications Warehouse

Fletcher, R.J.; Acevedo, M.A.; Reichert, Brian E.; Pias, Kyle E.; Kitchens, W.M.

2011-01-01

Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

A multi-step reaction model for ignition of fully-dense Al-CuO nanocomposite powders

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Stamatis, D.; Ermoline, A.; Dreizin, E. L.

2012-12-01

A multi-step reaction model is developed to describe heterogeneous processes occurring upon heating of an Al-CuO nanocomposite material prepared by arrested reactive milling. The reaction model couples a previously derived Cabrera-Mott oxidation mechanism describing initial, low temperature processes and an aluminium oxidation model including formation of different alumina polymorphs at increased film thicknesses and higher temperatures. The reaction model is tuned using traces measured by differential scanning calorimetry. Ignition is studied for thin powder layers and individual particles using respectively the heated filament (heating rates of 103-104 K s-1) and laser ignition (heating rate ∼106 K s-1) experiments. The developed heterogeneous reaction model predicts a sharp temperature increase, which can be associated with ignition when the laser power approaches the experimental ignition threshold. In experiments, particles ignited by the laser beam are observed to explode, indicating a substantial gas release accompanying ignition. For the heated filament experiments, the model predicts exothermic reactions at the temperatures, at which ignition is observed experimentally; however, strong thermal contact between the metal filament and powder prevents the model from predicting the thermal runaway. It is suggested that oxygen gas release from decomposing CuO, as observed from particles exploding upon ignition in the laser beam, disrupts the thermal contact of the powder and filament; this phenomenon must be included in the filament ignition model to enable prediction of the temperature runaway.

Target-Independent Prediction of Drug Synergies Using Only Drug Lipophilicity

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

Physicochemical properties of compounds have been instrumental in selecting lead compounds with increased drug-likeness. However, the relationship between physicochemical properties of constituent drugs and the tendency to exhibit drug interaction has not been systematically studied. We assembled physicochemical descriptors for a set of antifungal compounds (“drugs”) previously examined for interaction. Analyzing the relationship between molecular weight, lipophilicity, H-bond donor, and H-bond acceptor values for drugs and their propensity to show pairwise antifungal drug synergy, we found that combinations of two lipophilic drugs had a greater tendency to show drug synergy. We developed a more refined decision tree model that successfully predicted drug synergy in stringent cross-validation tests based on only lipophilicity of drugs. Our predictions achieved a precision of 63% and allowed successful prediction for 58% of synergistic drug pairs, suggesting that this phenomenon can extend our understanding for a substantial fraction of synergistic drug interactions. We also generated and analyzed a large-scale synergistic human toxicity network, in which we observed that combinations of lipophilic compounds show a tendency for increased toxicity. Thus, lipophilicity, a simple and easily determined molecular descriptor, is a powerful predictor of drug synergy. It is well established that lipophilic compounds (i) are promiscuous, having many targets in the cell, and (ii) often penetrate into the cell via the cellular membrane by passive diffusion. We discuss the positive relationship between drug lipophilicity and drug synergy in the context of potential drug synergy mechanisms. PMID:25026390

Neurocomputational mechanisms of prosocial learning and links to empathy.

PubMed

Lockwood, Patricia L; Apps, Matthew A J; Valton, Vincent; Viding, Essi; Roiser, Jonathan P

2016-08-30

Reinforcement learning theory powerfully characterizes how we learn to benefit ourselves. In this theory, prediction errors-the difference between a predicted and actual outcome of a choice-drive learning. However, we do not operate in a social vacuum. To behave prosocially we must learn the consequences of our actions for other people. Empathy, the ability to vicariously experience and understand the affect of others, is hypothesized to be a critical facilitator of prosocial behaviors, but the link between empathy and prosocial behavior is still unclear. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) participants chose between different stimuli that were probabilistically associated with rewards for themselves (self), another person (prosocial), or no one (control). Using computational modeling, we show that people can learn to obtain rewards for others but do so more slowly than when learning to obtain rewards for themselves. fMRI revealed that activity in a posterior portion of the subgenual anterior cingulate cortex/basal forebrain (sgACC) drives learning only when we are acting in a prosocial context and signals a prosocial prediction error conforming to classical principles of reinforcement learning theory. However, there is also substantial variability in the neural and behavioral efficiency of prosocial learning, which is predicted by trait empathy. More empathic people learn more quickly when benefitting others, and their sgACC response is the most selective for prosocial learning. We thus reveal a computational mechanism driving prosocial learning in humans. This framework could provide insights into atypical prosocial behavior in those with disorders of social cognition.

Effects of drought and pluvial periods on fish and zooplankton communities in prairie lakes: systematic and asystematic responses.

PubMed

Starks, Elizabeth; Cooper, Ryan; Leavitt, Peter R; Wissel, Björn

2014-04-01

The anticipated impacts of climate change on aquatic biota are difficult to evaluate because of potentially contrasting effects of temperature and hydrology on lake ecosystems, particularly those closed-basin lakes within semiarid regions. To address this shortfall, we quantified decade-scale changes in chemical and biological properties of 20 endorheic lakes in central North America in response to a pronounced transition from a drought to a pluvial period during the early 21st century. Lakes exhibited marked temporal changes in chemical characteristics and formed two discrete clusters corresponding to periods of substantially different effective moisture (as Palmer Drought Severity Index, PDSI). Discriminant function analysis (DFA) explained 90% of variability in fish assemblage composition and showed that fish communities were predicted best by environmental conditions during the arid interval (PDSI <-2). DFA also predicted that lakes could support more fish species during pluvial periods, but their occurrences may be limited by periodic stress due to recurrent droughts and physical barriers to colonization. Zooplankton taxonomic assemblages in fishless lakes were resilient to short-term changes in meteorological conditions, and did not vary between drought and deluge periods. Conversely, zooplankton taxa in fish-populated lakes decreased substantially in biomass during the wet interval, likely due to increased zooplanktivory by fish. The powerful effects of such climatic variability on hydrology and the strong subsequent links to water chemistry and biota indicate that future changes in global climate could result in significant restructuring of aquatic communities. Together these findings suggest that semiarid lakes undergoing temporary climate shifts provide a useful model system for anticipating the effects of global climate change on lake food webs. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Global longitudinal strain in patients with suspected heart failure and a normal ejection fraction: does it improve diagnosis and risk stratification?

PubMed

Pellicori, Pierpaolo; Kallvikbacka-Bennett, Anna; Khaleva, Olga; Carubelli, Valentina; Costanzo, Pierluigi; Castiello, Teresa; Wong, Kenneth; Zhang, Jufen; Cleland, John G F; Clark, Andrew L

2014-01-01

Many patients have clinical, structural or bio-marker evidence of heart failure (HF) but a normal left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF; HeFNEF). Measurement of global longitudinal strain (GLS) may add diagnostic and prognostic information. Patients with symptoms suggesting heart failure and LVEF ≥50% were studied: 76 had no substantial cardiac dysfunction (left atrial diameter (LAD) <40 mm and amino-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NTproBNP) <400 ng/l); 99 had "possible HeFNEF" (LAD ≥40 mm or NTproBNP ≥400 ng/l); and 138 had "definite HeFNEF" (LAD ≥40 mm and NTproBNP ≥400 ng/L). Mean LVEF was 58% in each subgroup. Patients with definite HeFNEF were older, more likely to have atrial fibrillation, had more symptoms and signs of fluid retention, were more likely to have right ventricular dysfunction and had higher pulmonary pressures than other groups. Mean GLS (SD) was less negative in patients with definite HeFNEF (-13.6 (3.0)% vs. possible HeFNEF: -15.2 (3.1)% vs. no substantial cardiac dysfunction: -15.9 (2.4)%; p < 0.001). GLS was -19.1 (2.1)% in 20 controls. During a median follow up of 647 days, cardiovascular death or an unplanned hospitalisation for heart failure occurred in 62 patients. In univariable analysis, GLS but not LVEF predicted events. However, in a multi-variable analysis, only urea, NTproBNP, left atrial volume, inferior vena cava diameter and atrial fibrillation independently predicted adverse outcome. GLS is abnormal in patients who have other evidence of HeFNEF, is associated with a worse prognosis in this population but is not a powerful independent predictor of outcome.

An improved prognostic model for stage T1a and T1b prostate cancer by assessments of cancer extent

PubMed Central

Rajab, Ramzi; Fisher, Gabrielle; Kattan, Michael W; Foster, Christopher S; Møller, Henrik; Oliver, Tim; Reuter, Victor; Scardino, Peter T; Cuzick, Jack; Berney, Daniel M

2013-01-01

Treatment decisions on prostate cancer diagnosed by trans-urethral resection (TURP) of the prostate are difficult. The current TNM staging system for pT1 prostate cancer has not been re-evaluated for 25 years. Our objective was to optimise the predictive power of tumor extent measurements in TURP of the prostate specimens. A total of 914 patients diagnosed by TURP of the prostate between 1990 and 1996, managed conservatively were identified. The clinical end point was death from prostate cancer. Diagnostic serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and contemporary Gleason grading was available. Cancer extent was measured by the percentage of chips infiltrated by cancer. Death rates were compared by univariate and multivariate proportional hazards models, including baseline PSA and Gleason score. The percentage of positive chips was highly predictive of prostate cancer death when assessed as a continuous variable or as a grouped variable on the basis of and including the quintiles, quartiles, tertiles and median groups. In the univariate model, the most informative variable was a four group-split (≤ 10%, >10–25%, > 25–75% and > 75%); (HR = 2.08, 95% CI = 1.8–2.4, P < 0.0001). The same was true in a multivariate model (ΔX2 (1 d.f.) = 15.0, P = 0.0001). The current cutoff used by TNM (< = 5%) was sub-optimal (ΔX2 (1 d.f.) = 4.8, P = 0.023). The current TNM staging results in substantial loss of information. Staging by a four-group subdivision would substantially improve prognostication in patients with early stage disease and also may help to refine management decisions in patients who would do well with conservative treatments. PMID:20834240

Wavelength selection-based nonlinear calibration for transcutaneous blood glucose sensing using Raman spectroscopy

PubMed Central

Dingari, Narahara Chari; Barman, Ishan; Kang, Jeon Woong; Kong, Chae-Ryon; Dasari, Ramachandra R.; Feld, Michael S.

2011-01-01

While Raman spectroscopy provides a powerful tool for noninvasive and real time diagnostics of biological samples, its translation to the clinical setting has been impeded by the lack of robustness of spectroscopic calibration models and the size and cumbersome nature of conventional laboratory Raman systems. Linear multivariate calibration models employing full spectrum analysis are often misled by spurious correlations, such as system drift and covariations among constituents. In addition, such calibration schemes are prone to overfitting, especially in the presence of external interferences that may create nonlinearities in the spectra-concentration relationship. To address both of these issues we incorporate residue error plot-based wavelength selection and nonlinear support vector regression (SVR). Wavelength selection is used to eliminate uninformative regions of the spectrum, while SVR is used to model the curved effects such as those created by tissue turbidity and temperature fluctuations. Using glucose detection in tissue phantoms as a representative example, we show that even a substantial reduction in the number of wavelengths analyzed using SVR lead to calibration models of equivalent prediction accuracy as linear full spectrum analysis. Further, with clinical datasets obtained from human subject studies, we also demonstrate the prospective applicability of the selected wavelength subsets without sacrificing prediction accuracy, which has extensive implications for calibration maintenance and transfer. Additionally, such wavelength selection could substantially reduce the collection time of serial Raman acquisition systems. Given the reduced footprint of serial Raman systems in relation to conventional dispersive Raman spectrometers, we anticipate that the incorporation of wavelength selection in such hardware designs will enhance the possibility of miniaturized clinical systems for disease diagnosis in the near future. PMID:21895336

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Zediker, Mark S.; Rinzler, Charles C.; Faircloth, Brian O.

There is provided a system and apparatus for the transmission of high power laser energy over great distances without substantial power loss and without the presence of stimulated Raman scattering. There is further provided systems and optical fiber cable configurations and optical fiber structures for the delivering high power laser energy over great distances to a tool or surface to perform an operation or work with the tool or upon the surface.

Goal conflict, goal facilitation, and health professionals' provision of physical activity advice in primary care: an exploratory prospective study.

PubMed

Presseau, Justin; Francis, Jill J; Campbell, Neil C; Sniehotta, Falko F

2011-07-15

The theory of planned behaviour has well-evidenced utility in predicting health professional behaviour, but focuses on a single behaviour isolated from the numerous potentially conflicting and facilitating goal-directed behaviours performed alongside. Goal conflict and goal facilitation may influence whether health professionals engage in guideline-recommended behaviours, and may supplement the predictive power of the theory of planned behaviour. We hypothesised that goal facilitation and goal conflict contribute to predicting primary care health professionals' provision of physical activity advice to patients with hypertension, over and above predictors of behaviour from the theory of planned behaviour. Using a prospective predictive design, at baseline we invited a random sample of 606 primary care health professionals from all primary care practices in NHS Grampian and NHS Tayside (Scotland) to complete postal questionnaires. Goal facilitation and goal conflict were measured alongside theory of planned behaviour constructs at baseline. At follow-up six months later, participants self-reported the number of patients, out of those seen in the preceding two weeks, to whom they provided physical activity advice. Forty-four primary care physicians and nurses completed measures at both time points (7.3% response rate). Goal facilitation and goal conflict improved the prediction of behaviour, accounting for substantial additional variance (5.8% and 8.4%, respectively) in behaviour over and above intention and perceived behavioural control. Health professionals' provision of physical activity advice in primary care can be predicted by perceptions about how their conflicting and facilitating goal-directed behaviours help and hinder giving advice, over and above theory of planned behaviour constructs. Incorporating features of multiple goal pursuit into the theory of planned behaviour may help to better understand health professional behaviour.

Goal conflict, goal facilitation, and health professionals' provision of physical activity advice in primary care: An exploratory prospective study

PubMed Central

2011-01-01

Background The theory of planned behaviour has well-evidenced utility in predicting health professional behaviour, but focuses on a single behaviour isolated from the numerous potentially conflicting and facilitating goal-directed behaviours performed alongside. Goal conflict and goal facilitation may influence whether health professionals engage in guideline-recommended behaviours, and may supplement the predictive power of the theory of planned behaviour. We hypothesised that goal facilitation and goal conflict contribute to predicting primary care health professionals' provision of physical activity advice to patients with hypertension, over and above predictors of behaviour from the theory of planned behaviour. Methods Using a prospective predictive design, at baseline we invited a random sample of 606 primary care health professionals from all primary care practices in NHS Grampian and NHS Tayside (Scotland) to complete postal questionnaires. Goal facilitation and goal conflict were measured alongside theory of planned behaviour constructs at baseline. At follow-up six months later, participants self-reported the number of patients, out of those seen in the preceding two weeks, to whom they provided physical activity advice. Results Forty-four primary care physicians and nurses completed measures at both time points (7.3% response rate). Goal facilitation and goal conflict improved the prediction of behaviour, accounting for substantial additional variance (5.8% and 8.4%, respectively) in behaviour over and above intention and perceived behavioural control. Conclusions Health professionals' provision of physical activity advice in primary care can be predicted by perceptions about how their conflicting and facilitating goal-directed behaviours help and hinder giving advice, over and above theory of planned behaviour constructs. Incorporating features of multiple goal pursuit into the theory of planned behaviour may help to better understand health professional behaviour. PMID:21762486

Will Big Data Close the Missing Heritability Gap?

PubMed

Kim, Hwasoon; Grueneberg, Alexander; Vazquez, Ana I; Hsu, Stephen; de Los Campos, Gustavo

2017-11-01

Despite the important discoveries reported by genome-wide association (GWA) studies, for most traits and diseases the prediction R-squared (R-sq.) achieved with genetic scores remains considerably lower than the trait heritability. Modern biobanks will soon deliver unprecedentedly large biomedical data sets: Will the advent of big data close the gap between the trait heritability and the proportion of variance that can be explained by a genomic predictor? We addressed this question using Bayesian methods and a data analysis approach that produces a surface response relating prediction R-sq. with sample size and model complexity ( e.g. , number of SNPs). We applied the methodology to data from the interim release of the UK Biobank. Focusing on human height as a model trait and using 80,000 records for model training, we achieved a prediction R-sq. in testing ( n = 22,221) of 0.24 (95% C.I.: 0.23-0.25). Our estimates show that prediction R-sq. increases with sample size, reaching an estimated plateau at values that ranged from 0.1 to 0.37 for models using 500 and 50,000 (GWA-selected) SNPs, respectively. Soon much larger data sets will become available. Using the estimated surface response, we forecast that larger sample sizes will lead to further improvements in prediction R-sq. We conclude that big data will lead to a substantial reduction of the gap between trait heritability and the proportion of interindividual differences that can be explained with a genomic predictor. However, even with the power of big data, for complex traits we anticipate that the gap between prediction R-sq. and trait heritability will not be fully closed. Copyright © 2017 by the Genetics Society of America.

Will Big Data Close the Missing Heritability Gap?

PubMed Central

Kim, Hwasoon; Grueneberg, Alexander; Vazquez, Ana I.; Hsu, Stephen; de los Campos, Gustavo

2017-01-01

Despite the important discoveries reported by genome-wide association (GWA) studies, for most traits and diseases the prediction R-squared (R-sq.) achieved with genetic scores remains considerably lower than the trait heritability. Modern biobanks will soon deliver unprecedentedly large biomedical data sets: Will the advent of big data close the gap between the trait heritability and the proportion of variance that can be explained by a genomic predictor? We addressed this question using Bayesian methods and a data analysis approach that produces a surface response relating prediction R-sq. with sample size and model complexity (e.g., number of SNPs). We applied the methodology to data from the interim release of the UK Biobank. Focusing on human height as a model trait and using 80,000 records for model training, we achieved a prediction R-sq. in testing (n = 22,221) of 0.24 (95% C.I.: 0.23–0.25). Our estimates show that prediction R-sq. increases with sample size, reaching an estimated plateau at values that ranged from 0.1 to 0.37 for models using 500 and 50,000 (GWA-selected) SNPs, respectively. Soon much larger data sets will become available. Using the estimated surface response, we forecast that larger sample sizes will lead to further improvements in prediction R-sq. We conclude that big data will lead to a substantial reduction of the gap between trait heritability and the proportion of interindividual differences that can be explained with a genomic predictor. However, even with the power of big data, for complex traits we anticipate that the gap between prediction R-sq. and trait heritability will not be fully closed. PMID:28893854

Comparative Predictive Validity of the New MCAT Using Different Admissions Criteria.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Golmon, Melton E.; Berry, Charles A.

1981-01-01

New Medical College Admission Test (MCAT) scores and undergraduate academic achievement were examined for their validity in predicting the performance of two select student populations at Northwestern University Medical School. The data support the hypothesis that New MCAT scores possess substantial predictive validity. (Author/MLW)

Stopping power beyond the adiabatic approximation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Caro, M.; Correa, A. A.; Artacho, E.

2017-06-01

Energetic ions traveling in solids deposit energy in a variety of ways, being nuclear and electronic stopping the two avenues in which dissipation is usually treated. This separation between electrons and ions relies on the adiabatic approximation in which ions interact via forces derived from the instantaneous electronic ground state. In a more detailed view, in which non-adiabatic effects are explicitly considered, electronic excitations alter the atomic bonding, which translates into changes in the interatomic forces. In this work, we use time dependent density functional theory and forces derived from the equations of Ehrenfest dynamics that depend instantaneously on themore » time-dependent electronic density. With them we analyze how the inter-ionic forces are affected by electronic excitations in a model of a Ni projectile interacting with a Ni target, a metallic system with strong electronic stopping and shallow core level states. We find that the electronic excitations induce substantial modifications to the inter-ionic forces, which translate into nuclear stopping power well above the adiabatic prediction. Particularly, we observe that most of the alteration of the adiabatic potential in early times comes from the ionization of the core levels of the target ions, not readily screened by the valence electrons.« less

Channel Acquisition for Massive MIMO-OFDM With Adjustable Phase Shift Pilots

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

You, Li; Gao, Xiqi; Swindlehurst, A. Lee; Zhong, Wen

2016-03-01

We propose adjustable phase shift pilots (APSPs) for channel acquisition in wideband massive multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) systems employing orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) to reduce the pilot overhead. Based on a physically motivated channel model, we first establish a relationship between channel space-frequency correlations and the channel power angle-delay spectrum in the massive antenna array regime, which reveals the channel sparsity in massive MIMO-OFDM. With this channel model, we then investigate channel acquisition, including channel estimation and channel prediction, for massive MIMO-OFDM with APSPs. We show that channel acquisition performance in terms of sum mean square error can be minimized if the user terminals' channel power distributions in the angle-delay domain can be made non-overlapping with proper phase shift scheduling. A simplified pilot phase shift scheduling algorithm is developed based on this optimal channel acquisition condition. The performance of APSPs is investigated for both one symbol and multiple symbol data models. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed APSP approach can provide substantial performance gains in terms of achievable spectral efficiency over the conventional phase shift orthogonal pilot approach in typical mobility scenarios.

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan M

2017-06-03

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalmanmore » filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.« less

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation: Preprint

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Abbas, Nikhar; Tom, Nathan

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalmanmore » filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.« less

Ultra-Short-Term Wind Power Prediction Using a Hybrid Model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mohammed, E.; Wang, S.; Yu, J.

2017-05-01

This paper aims to develop and apply a hybrid model of two data analytical methods, multiple linear regressions and least square (MLR&LS), for ultra-short-term wind power prediction (WPP), for example taking, Northeast China electricity demand. The data was obtained from the historical records of wind power from an offshore region, and from a wind farm of the wind power plant in the areas. The WPP achieved in two stages: first, the ratios of wind power were forecasted using the proposed hybrid method, and then the transformation of these ratios of wind power to obtain forecasted values. The hybrid model combines the persistence methods, MLR and LS. The proposed method included two prediction types, multi-point prediction and single-point prediction. WPP is tested by applying different models such as autoregressive moving average (ARMA), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and artificial neural network (ANN). By comparing results of the above models, the validity of the proposed hybrid model is confirmed in terms of error and correlation coefficient. Comparison of results confirmed that the proposed method works effectively. Additional, forecasting errors were also computed and compared, to improve understanding of how to depict highly variable WPP and the correlations between actual and predicted wind power.

Experimental validation of boundary element methods for noise prediction

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Seybert, A. F.; Oswald, Fred B.

1992-01-01

Experimental validation of methods to predict radiated noise is presented. A combined finite element and boundary element model was used to predict the vibration and noise of a rectangular box excited by a mechanical shaker. The predicted noise was compared to sound power measured by the acoustic intensity method. Inaccuracies in the finite element model shifted the resonance frequencies by about 5 percent. The predicted and measured sound power levels agree within about 2.5 dB. In a second experiment, measured vibration data was used with a boundary element model to predict noise radiation from the top of an operating gearbox. The predicted and measured sound power for the gearbox agree within about 3 dB.

Predicting Rediated Noise With Power Flow Finite Element Analysis

DTIC Science & Technology

2007-02-01

Defence R&D Canada – Atlantic DEFENCE DÉFENSE & Predicting Rediated Noise With Power Flow Finite Element Analysis D. Brennan T.S. Koko L. Jiang J...PREDICTING RADIATED NOISE WITH POWER FLOW FINITE ELEMENT ANALYSIS D.P. Brennan T.S. Koko L. Jiang J.C. Wallace Martec Limited Martec Limited...model- or full-scale data before it is available for general use. Brennan, D.P., Koko , T.S., Jiang, L., Wallace, J.C. 2007. Predicting Radiated

Dynamic Modeling and Very Short-term Prediction of Wind Power Output Using Box-Cox Transformation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Urata, Kengo; Inoue, Masaki; Murayama, Dai; Adachi, Shuichi

2016-09-01

We propose a statistical modeling method of wind power output for very short-term prediction. The modeling method with a nonlinear model has cascade structure composed of two parts. One is a linear dynamic part that is driven by a Gaussian white noise and described by an autoregressive model. The other is a nonlinear static part that is driven by the output of the linear part. This nonlinear part is designed for output distribution matching: we shape the distribution of the model output to match with that of the wind power output. The constructed model is utilized for one-step ahead prediction of the wind power output. Furthermore, we study the relation between the prediction accuracy and the prediction horizon.

Social motives and cognitive power-sex associations: predictors of aggressive sexual behavior.

PubMed

Zurbriggen, E L

2000-03-01

The present study investigated whether implicit social motives and cognitive power-sex associations would predict self-reports of aggressive sexual behavior. Participants wrote stories in response to Thematic Apperception Test pictures, which were scored for power and affiliation-intimacy motives. They also completed a lexical-decision priming task that provided an index of the strength of the cognitive association between the concepts of "power" and "sexuality." For men, high levels of power motivation and strong power-sex associations predicted more frequent aggression. There was also an interaction: Power motivation was unrelated to aggression for men with the weakest power-sex associations. For women, high levels of affiliation-intimacy motivation were associated with more frequent aggression. Strong power-sex associations were also predictive for women but only when affiliation-intimacy motivation was high.

Method of optimizing performance of Rankine cycle power plants. [US DOE Patent

DOEpatents

Pope, W.L.; Pines, H.S.; Doyle, P.A.; Silvester, L.F.

1980-06-23

A method is described for efficiently operating a Rankine cycle power plant to maximize fuel utilization efficiency or energy conversion efficiency or minimize costs by selecting a turbine fluid inlet state which is substantially on the area adjacent and including the transposed critical temperature line.

Climate Change, Offshore Wind Power, and the Coastal Zone Management Act

DTIC Science & Technology

2008-09-01

first century. Since the advent of the industrial revolution (ca. 1750), anthropogenic activities have resulted in a substantial increase in...concentrated sources of energy until the creation of the steam engine at the advent of the Industrial Revolution . Wind power was also widely employed in the

40 CFR 40.115-3 - Interstate agency.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... RESEARCH AND DEMONSTRATION GRANTS § 40.115-3 Interstate agency. (a) Under the Clean Air Act, an agency... substantial powers or duties pertaining to the prevention and control of air pollution. (b) Under the Federal... powers or duties pertaining to the control of pollution of waters. (c) Under the Resource Conservation...

40 CFR 40.115-3 - Interstate agency.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-07-01

... substantial powers or duties pertaining to the prevention and control of air pollution. (b) Under the Federal Water Pollution Control Act, an agency of two or more States established by or pursuant to an agreement... powers or duties pertaining to the control of pollution of waters. (c) Under the Resource Conservation...

Predicting armed conflict: Time to adjust our expectations?

PubMed

Cederman, Lars-Erik; Weidmann, Nils B

2017-02-03

This Essay provides an introduction to the general challenges of predicting political violence, particularly compared with predicting other types of events (such as earthquakes). What is possible? What is less realistic? We aim to debunk myths about predicting violence, as well as to illustrate the substantial progress in this field. Copyright © 2017, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Power selective optical filter devices and optical systems using same

DOEpatents

Koplow, Jeffrey P

2014-10-07

In an embodiment, a power selective optical filter device includes an input polarizer for selectively transmitting an input signal. The device includes a wave-plate structure positioned to receive the input signal, which includes at least one substantially zero-order, zero-wave plate. The zero-order, zero-wave plate is configured to alter a polarization state of the input signal passing in a manner that depends on the power of the input signal. The zero-order, zero-wave plate includes an entry and exit wave plate each having a fast axis, with the fast axes oriented substantially perpendicular to each other. Each entry wave plate is oriented relative to a transmission axis of the input polarizer at a respective angle. An output polarizer is positioned to receive a signal output from the wave-plate structure and selectively transmits the signal based on the polarization state.

Method of plasma etching Ga-based compound semiconductors

DOEpatents

Qiu, Weibin; Goddard, Lynford L.

2012-12-25

A method of plasma etching Ga-based compound semiconductors includes providing a process chamber and a source electrode adjacent to the process chamber. The process chamber contains a sample comprising a Ga-based compound semiconductor. The sample is in contact with a platen which is electrically connected to a first power supply, and the source electrode is electrically connected to a second power supply. The method includes flowing SiCl.sub.4 gas into the chamber, flowing Ar gas into the chamber, and flowing H.sub.2 gas into the chamber. RF power is supplied independently to the source electrode and the platen. A plasma is generated based on the gases in the process chamber, and regions of a surface of the sample adjacent to one or more masked portions of the surface are etched to create a substantially smooth etched surface including features having substantially vertical walls beneath the masked portions.

Physical Attractiveness and Health in Western Societies: A Review

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weeden, Jason; Sabini, John

2005-01-01

Evidence from developed Western societies is reviewed for the claims that (a) physical attractiveness judgments are substantially based on body size and shape, symmetry, sex-typical hormonal markers, and other specific cues and (b) physical attractiveness and these cues substantially predict health. Among the cues that the authors review, only…

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

Currently, cup anemometers on meteorological towers are used to measure wind speeds and turbulence intensity to make decisions about wind turbine class and site suitability; however, as modern turbine hub heights increase and wind energy expands to complex and remote sites, it becomes more difficult and costly to install meteorological towers at potential sites. As a result, remote-sensing devices (e.g., lidars) are now commonly used by wind farm managers and researchers to estimate the flow field at heights spanned by a turbine. Although lidars can accurately estimate mean wind speeds and wind directions, there is still a large amount ofmore » uncertainty surrounding the measurement of turbulence using these devices. Errors in lidar turbulence estimates are caused by a variety of factors, including instrument noise, volume averaging, and variance contamination, in which the magnitude of these factors is highly dependent on measurement height and atmospheric stability. As turbulence has a large impact on wind power production, errors in turbulence measurements will translate into errors in wind power prediction. The impact of using lidars rather than cup anemometers for wind power prediction must be understood if lidars are to be considered a viable alternative to cup anemometers.In this poster, the sensitivity of power prediction error to typical lidar turbulence measurement errors is assessed. Turbulence estimates from a vertically profiling WINDCUBE v2 lidar are compared to high-resolution sonic anemometer measurements at field sites in Oklahoma and Colorado to determine the degree of lidar turbulence error that can be expected under different atmospheric conditions. These errors are then incorporated into a power prediction model to estimate the sensitivity of power prediction error to turbulence measurement error. Power prediction models, including the standard binning method and a random forest method, were developed using data from the aeroelastic simulator FAST for a 1.5 MW turbine. The impact of lidar turbulence error on the predicted power from these different models is examined to determine the degree of turbulence measurement accuracy needed for accurate power prediction.« less

ANEMOS: Development of a next generation wind power forecasting system for the large-scale integration of onshore and offshore wind farms.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kariniotakis, G.; Anemos Team

2003-04-01

Objectives: Accurate forecasting of the wind energy production up to two days ahead is recognized as a major contribution for reliable large-scale wind power integration. Especially, in a liberalized electricity market, prediction tools enhance the position of wind energy compared to other forms of dispatchable generation. ANEMOS, is a new 3.5 years R&D project supported by the European Commission, that resembles research organizations and end-users with an important experience on the domain. The project aims to develop advanced forecasting models that will substantially outperform current methods. Emphasis is given to situations like complex terrain, extreme weather conditions, as well as to offshore prediction for which no specific tools currently exist. The prediction models will be implemented in a software platform and installed for online operation at onshore and offshore wind farms by the end-users participating in the project. Approach: The paper presents the methodology of the project. Initially, the prediction requirements are identified according to the profiles of the end-users. The project develops prediction models based on both a physical and an alternative statistical approach. Research on physical models gives emphasis to techniques for use in complex terrain and the development of prediction tools based on CFD techniques, advanced model output statistics or high-resolution meteorological information. Statistical models (i.e. based on artificial intelligence) are developed for downscaling, power curve representation, upscaling for prediction at regional or national level, etc. A benchmarking process is set-up to evaluate the performance of the developed models and to compare them with existing ones using a number of case studies. The synergy between statistical and physical approaches is examined to identify promising areas for further improvement of forecasting accuracy. Appropriate physical and statistical prediction models are also developed for offshore wind farms taking into account advances in marine meteorology (interaction between wind and waves, coastal effects). The benefits from the use of satellite radar images for modeling local weather patterns are investigated. A next generation forecasting software, ANEMOS, will be developed to integrate the various models. The tool is enhanced by advanced Information Communication Technology (ICT) functionality and can operate both in stand alone, or remote mode, or be interfaced with standard Energy or Distribution Management Systems (EMS/DMS) systems. Contribution: The project provides an advanced technology for wind resource forecasting applicable in a large scale: at a single wind farm, regional or national level and for both interconnected and island systems. A major milestone is the on-line operation of the developed software by the participating utilities for onshore and offshore wind farms and the demonstration of the economic benefits. The outcome of the ANEMOS project will help consistently the increase of wind integration in two levels; in an operational level due to better management of wind farms, but also, it will contribute to increasing the installed capacity of wind farms. This is because accurate prediction of the resource reduces the risk of wind farm developers, who are then more willing to undertake new wind farm installations especially in a liberalized electricity market environment.

Multi-Core Programming Design Patterns: Stream Processing Algorithms for Dynamic Scene Perceptions

DTIC Science & Technology

2014-05-01

processor developed by IBM and other companies , incorpo- rates the verb—POWER5— processor as the Power Processor Element (PPE), one of the early general...deliver an power efficient single-precision peak performance of more than 256 GFlops. Substantially more raw power became available later, when nVIDIA ...algorithms, including IBM’s Cell/B.E., GPUs from NVidia and AMD and many-core CPUs from Intel.27 The vast growth of digital video content has been a

PowerGuard® manufacturing innovation and expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dinwoodie, Thomas; Kleiner, Tim; O'Brien, Colleen; Quiroz, Maurice

1999-03-01

PowerLight Corporation, with support from the DOE's PVMaT program, has undertaken a comprehensive agenda to automate the manufacture of its PowerGuard PV roof tile system. The advanced manufacturing will lead to substantially reduced costs, quality improvements, and increased production capacity. Over the three years of the PVMaT contract, system costs are expected to fall 2.65/Wp, with annual production capability increasing from 5 to 16 MW. PowerLight is on schedule with meeting its objectives under this program.

The ac power system testbed

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Mildice, J.; Sundberg, R.

1987-01-01

The object of this program was to design, build, test, and deliver a high frequency (20 kHz) Power System Testbed which would electrically approximate a single, separable power channel of an IOC Space Station. That program is described, including the technical background, and the results are discussed showing that the major assumptions about the characteristics of this class of hardware (size, mass, efficiency, control, etc.) were substantially correct. This testbed equipment was completed and delivered and is being operated as part of the Space Station Power System Test Facility.

POWER Web Access Data

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-05-27

Description:  Obtain Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) data The Prediction of Worldwide Energy ... (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current renewable energy data set and to create new data sets from new satellite ...

Predictions of lithium interactions with earth's bow shock in the presence of wave activity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Decker, R. B.; Lui, A. T. Y.; Vlahos, L.

1984-01-01

The results of a test-particle simulation studying the movement of a lithium tracer ion injected upstream of the bow shock are reported. Wave activity consists of parallel and antiparallel propagating Alfven waves characterized by a frequency power spectrum within a frequency or range of amplitudes defined separately in the upstream and downstream regions. The results show that even a moderate level of wave activity can substantially change the results obtained in the absence of waves. Among the effects observed are: (1) increased ion transmission; (2) both the average energy gain and spread about the average are increased for transmitted and reflected particles; (3) the average final pitch angle for transmitted particles tends to 90 deg, and the spread of reflected particles is reduced; and (4) the spatial dispersion of the ions on the bow shock after a single encounter is increased.

How wing compliance drives the efficiency of self-propelled flapping flyers.

PubMed

Thiria, Benjamin; Godoy-Diana, Ramiro

2010-07-01

Wing flexibility governs the flying performance of flapping-wing flyers. Here, we use a self-propelled flapping-wing model mounted on a "merry go round" to investigate the effect of wing compliance on the propulsive efficiency of the system. Our measurements show that the elastic nature of the wings can lead not only to a substantial reduction in the consumed power, but also to an increment of the propulsive force. A scaling analysis using a flexible plate model for the wings points out that, for flapping flyers in air, the time-dependent shape of the elastic bending wing is governed by the wing inertia. Based on this prediction, we define the ratio of the inertial forces deforming the wing to the elastic restoring force that limits the deformation as the elastoinertial number N(ei). Our measurements with the self-propelled model confirm that it is the appropriate structural parameter to describe flapping flyers with flexible wings.

Impact of charge transport on current–voltage characteristics and power-conversion efficiency of organic solar cells

PubMed Central

Würfel, Uli; Neher, Dieter; Spies, Annika; Albrecht, Steve

2015-01-01

This work elucidates the impact of charge transport on the photovoltaic properties of organic solar cells. Here we show that the analysis of current–voltage curves of organic solar cells under illumination with the Shockley equation results in values for ideality factor, photocurrent and parallel resistance, which lack physical meaning. Drift-diffusion simulations for a wide range of charge-carrier mobilities and illumination intensities reveal significant carrier accumulation caused by poor transport properties, which is not included in the Shockley equation. As a consequence, the separation of the quasi Fermi levels in the organic photoactive layer (internal voltage) differs substantially from the external voltage for almost all conditions. We present a new analytical model, which considers carrier transport explicitly. The model shows excellent agreement with full drift-diffusion simulations over a wide range of mobilities and illumination intensities, making it suitable for realistic efficiency predictions for organic solar cells. PMID:25907581

Genetic and epigenetic control of metabolic health.

PubMed

Schwenk, Robert Wolfgang; Vogel, Heike; Schürmann, Annette

2013-09-25

Obesity is characterized as an excess accumulation of body fat resulting from a positive energy balance. It is the major risk factor for type 2 diabetes (T2D). The evidence for familial aggregation of obesity and its associated metabolic diseases is substantial. To date, about 150 genetic loci identified in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are linked with obesity and T2D, each accounting for only a small proportion of the predicted heritability. However, the percentage of overall trait variance explained by these associated loci is modest (~5-10% for T2D, ~2% for BMI). The lack of powerful genetic associations suggests that heritability is not entirely attributable to gene variations. Some of the familial aggregation as well as many of the effects of environmental exposures, may reflect epigenetic processes. This review summarizes our current knowledge on the genetic basis to individual risk of obesity and T2D, and explores the potential role of epigenetic contribution.

Acid mine drainage

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bigham, Jerry M.; Cravotta, Charles A.

2016-01-01

Acid mine drainage (AMD) consists of metal-laden solutions produced by the oxidative dissolution of iron sulfide minerals exposed to air, moisture, and acidophilic microbes during the mining of coal and metal deposits. The pH of AMD is usually in the range of 2–6, but mine-impacted waters at circumneutral pH (5–8) are also common. Mine drainage usually contains elevated concentrations of sulfate, iron, aluminum, and other potentially toxic metals leached from rock that hydrolyze and coprecipitate to form rust-colored encrustations or sediments. When AMD is discharged into surface waters or groundwaters, degradation of water quality, injury to aquatic life, and corrosion or encrustation of engineered structures can occur for substantial distances. Prevention and remediation strategies should consider the biogeochemical complexity of the system, the longevity of AMD pollution, the predictive power of geochemical modeling, and the full range of available field technologies for problem mitigation.

PSYCHOLOGY. Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science.

PubMed

2015-08-28

Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Quasiparticle band structures and interface physics of SnS and GeS

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Malone, Brad; Kaxiras, Efthimios

2013-03-01

Orthorhombic SnS and GeS are layered materials made of earth-abundant elements which have the potential to play a useful role in the massive scale up of renewable power necessary by 2050 to avoid unmanageable levels of climate change. We report on first principles calculations of the quasiparticle spectra of these two materials, predicting the type and magnitude of the fundamental band gap, a quantity which shows a strong degree of scatter in the experimental literature. Additionally, in order to evaluate the possible role of GeS as an electron-blocking layer in a SnS-based photovoltaic device, we investigate the band offsets of the interfaces between these materials along the three principle crystallographic directions. We find that while the valence-band offsets are similar along the three principle directions, the conduction-band offsets display a substantial amount of anisotropy.

A molecular theory for optimal blue energy extraction by electrical double layer expansion

DOE PAGES

Kong, Xian; Gallegos, Alejandro; Lu, Diannan; ...

2015-08-19

We proposed the electrical double layer expansion (CDLE) as a promising alternative to reverse electrodialysis (RED) and pressure retarded osmosis (PRO) processes for extracting osmotic power generated by the salinity difference between freshwater and seawater. The performance of the CDLE process is sensitive to the configuration of porous electrodes and operation parameters for ion extraction and release cycles. In our work, we use a classical density functional theory (CDFT) to examine how the electrode pore size and charging/discharging potentials influence the thermodynamic efficiency of the CDLE cycle. The existence of an optimal charging potential that maximizes the energy output formore » a given pore configuration is predicted, which varies substantially with the pore size, especially when it is smaller than 2 nm. Finally, the thermodynamic efficiency is maximized when the electrode has a pore size about twice the ion diameter.« less

Facial Width-to-Height Ratio Does Not Predict Self-Reported Behavioral Tendencies.

PubMed

Kosinski, Michal

2017-11-01

A growing number of studies have linked facial width-to-height ratio (fWHR) with various antisocial or violent behavioral tendencies. However, those studies have predominantly been laboratory based and low powered. This work reexamined the links between fWHR and behavioral tendencies in a large sample of 137,163 participants. Behavioral tendencies were measured using 55 well-established psychometric scales, including self-report scales measuring intelligence, domains and facets of the five-factor model of personality, impulsiveness, sense of fairness, sensational interests, self-monitoring, impression management, and satisfaction with life. The findings revealed that fWHR is not substantially linked with any of these self-reported measures of behavioral tendencies, calling into question whether the links between fWHR and behavior generalize beyond the small samples and specific experimental settings that have been used in past fWHR research.

Revisiting the feasibility analysis of on-site wind generation for the control of a dutch polder

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abraham, Edo; van Nooijen, Ronald

2017-04-01

EU targets to substantially reduce greenhouse gas emissions, by 20% within 2020 and 40% within 2030, has resulted in the introduction of more renewables to the grid. The recent announcement (2016) by the UK and the Netherlands to build offshore wind farms of 1.2 GW and 0.7 GW, respectively, is an example of the increasing trend for wind power penetration in the grid. The uncertainty in renewable electricity generation and its use has, however, created problems for grid stability, necessitating smarter grid and demand side management. Renewable energy, through the use of on-site windmills, has been used to keep Dutch polders dry for centuries. In this work, we present preliminary analysis of the potential for on-site wind energy use for draining a Dutch polder. A mathematical framework is presented to optimise pumping subject to uncertainties in wind energy variations and runoff predictions.

Selected Performance Measurements of the F-15 Active Axisymmetric Thrust-vectoring Nozzle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orme, John S.; Sims, Robert L.

1998-01-01

Flight tests recently completed at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center evaluated performance of a hydromechanically vectored axisymmetric nozzle onboard the F-15 ACTIVE. A flight-test technique whereby strain gages installed onto engine mounts provided for the direct measurement of thrust and vector forces has proven to be extremely valuable. Flow turning and thrust efficiency, as well as nozzle static pressure distributions were measured and analyzed. This report presents results from testing at an altitude of 30,000 ft and a speed of Mach 0.9. Flow turning and thrust efficiency were found to be significantly different than predicted, and moreover, varied substantially with power setting and pitch vector angle. Results of an in-flight comparison of the direct thrust measurement technique and an engine simulation fell within the expected uncertainty bands. Overall nozzle performance at this flight condition demonstrated the F100-PW-229 thrust-vectoring nozzles to be highly capable and efficient.

Designing high-performance layered thermoelectric materials through orbital engineering

PubMed Central

Zhang, Jiawei; Song, Lirong; Madsen, Georg K. H.; Fischer, Karl F. F.; Zhang, Wenqing; Shi, Xun; Iversen, Bo B.

2016-01-01

Thermoelectric technology, which possesses potential application in recycling industrial waste heat as energy, calls for novel high-performance materials. The systematic exploration of novel thermoelectric materials with excellent electronic transport properties is severely hindered by limited insight into the underlying bonding orbitals of atomic structures. Here we propose a simple yet successful strategy to discover and design high-performance layered thermoelectric materials through minimizing the crystal field splitting energy of orbitals to realize high orbital degeneracy. The approach naturally leads to design maps for optimizing the thermoelectric power factor through forming solid solutions and biaxial strain. Using this approach, we predict a series of potential thermoelectric candidates from layered CaAl2Si2-type Zintl compounds. Several of them contain nontoxic, low-cost and earth-abundant elements. Moreover, the approach can be extended to several other non-cubic materials, thereby substantially accelerating the screening and design of new thermoelectric materials. PMID:26948043

Selected Performance Measurements of the F-15 ACTIVE Axisymmetric Thrust-Vectoring Nozzle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Orme, John S.; Sims, Robert L.

1999-01-01

Flight tests recently completed at the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center evaluated performance of a hydromechanically vectored axisymmetric nozzle onboard the F-15 ACTIVE. A flight-test technique whereby strain gages installed onto engine mounts provided for the direct measurement of thrust and vector forces has proven to be extremely valuable. Flow turning and thrust efficiency, as well as nozzle static pressure distributions were measured and analyzed. This report presents results from testing at an altitude of 30,000 ft and a speed of Mach 0.9. Flow turning and thrust efficiency were found to be significantly different than predicted, and moreover, varied substantially with power setting and pitch vector angle. Results of an in-flight comparison of the direct thrust measurement technique and an engine simulation fell within the expected uncertainty bands. Overall nozzle performance at this flight condition demonstrated the F100-PW-229 thrust-vectoring nozzles to be highly capable and efficient.

A quantum probability perspective on borderline vagueness.

PubMed

Blutner, Reinhard; Pothos, Emmanuel M; Bruza, Peter

2013-10-01

The term "vagueness" describes a property of natural concepts, which normally have fuzzy boundaries, admit borderline cases, and are susceptible to Zeno's sorites paradox. We will discuss the psychology of vagueness, especially experiments investigating the judgment of borderline cases and contradictions. In the theoretical part, we will propose a probabilistic model that describes the quantitative characteristics of the experimental finding and extends Alxatib's and Pelletier's () theoretical analysis. The model is based on a Hopfield network for predicting truth values. Powerful as this classical perspective is, we show that it falls short of providing an adequate coverage of the relevant empirical results. In the final part, we will argue that a substantial modification of the analysis put forward by Alxatib and Pelletier and its probabilistic pendant is needed. The proposed modification replaces the standard notion of probabilities by quantum probabilities. The crucial phenomenon of borderline contradictions can be explained then as a quantum interference phenomenon. © 2013 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

The contribution of attentional lapses to individual differences in visual working memory capacity.

PubMed

Adam, Kirsten C S; Mance, Irida; Fukuda, Keisuke; Vogel, Edward K

2015-08-01

Attentional control and working memory capacity are important cognitive abilities that substantially vary between individuals. Although much is known about how attentional control and working memory capacity relate to each other and to constructs like fluid intelligence, little is known about how trial-by-trial fluctuations in attentional engagement impact trial-by-trial working memory performance. Here, we employ a novel whole-report memory task that allowed us to distinguish between varying levels of attentional engagement in humans performing a working memory task. By characterizing low-performance trials, we can distinguish between models in which working memory performance failures are caused by either (1) complete lapses of attention or (2) variations in attentional control. We found that performance failures increase with set-size and strongly predict working memory capacity. Performance variability was best modeled by an attentional control model of attention, not a lapse model. We examined neural signatures of performance failures by measuring EEG activity while participants performed the whole-report task. The number of items correctly recalled in the memory task was predicted by frontal theta power, with decreased frontal theta power associated with poor performance on the task. In addition, we found that poor performance was not explained by failures of sensory encoding; the P1/N1 response and ocular artifact rates were equivalent for high- and low-performance trials. In all, we propose that attentional lapses alone cannot explain individual differences in working memory performance. Instead, we find that graded fluctuations in attentional control better explain the trial-by-trial differences in working memory that we observe.

Diagnostic power of diffuse reflectance spectroscopy for targeted detection of breast lesions with microcalcifications

PubMed Central

Soares, Jaqueline S.; Barman, Ishan; Dingari, Narahara Chari; Volynskaya, Zoya; Liu, Wendy; Klein, Nina; Plecha, Donna; Dasari, Ramachandra R.; Fitzmaurice, Maryann

2013-01-01

Microcalcifications geographically target the location of abnormalities within the breast and are of critical importance in breast cancer diagnosis. However, despite stereotactic guidance, core needle biopsy fails to retrieve microcalcifications in up to 15% of patients. Here, we introduce an approach based on diffuse reflectance spectroscopy for detection of microcalcifications that focuses on variations in optical absorption stemming from the calcified clusters and the associated cross-linking molecules. In this study, diffuse reflectance spectra are acquired ex vivo from 203 sites in fresh biopsy tissue cores from 23 patients undergoing stereotactic breast needle biopsies. By correlating the spectra with the corresponding radiographic and histologic assessment, we have developed a support vector machine-derived decision algorithm, which shows high diagnostic power (positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 97% and 88%, respectively) for diagnosis of lesions with microcalcifications. We further show that these results are robust and not due to any spurious correlations. We attribute our findings to the presence of proteins (such as elastin), and desmosine and isodesmosine cross-linkers in the microcalcifications. It is important to note that the performance of the diffuse reflectance decision algorithm is comparable to one derived from the corresponding Raman spectra, and the considerably higher intensity of the reflectance signal enables the detection of the targeted lesions in a fraction of the spectral acquisition time. Our findings create a unique landscape for spectroscopic validation of breast core needle biopsy for detection of microcalcifications that can substantially improve the likelihood of an adequate, diagnostic biopsy in the first attempt. PMID:23267090

The Contribution of Attentional Lapses to Individual Differences in Visual Working Memory Capacity

PubMed Central

Adam, Kirsten C. S.; Mance, Irida; Fukuda, Keisuke; Vogel, Edward K.

2015-01-01

Attentional control and working memory capacity are important cognitive abilities that substantially vary between individuals. Although much is known about how attentional control and working memory capacity relate to each other and to constructs like fluid intelligence, little is known about how trial-by-trial fluctuations in attentional engagement impact trial-by-trial working memory performance. Here, we employ a novel whole-report memory task that allowed us to distinguish between varying levels of attentional engagement in humans performing a working memory task. By characterizing low-performance trials, we can distinguish between models in which working memory performance failures are caused by either (1) complete lapses of attention or (2) variations in attentional control. We found that performance failures increase with set-size and strongly predict working memory capacity. Performance variability was best modeled by an attentional control model of attention, not a lapse model. We examined neural signatures of performance failures by measuring EEG activity while participants performed the whole-report task. The number of items correctly recalled in the memory task was predicted by frontal theta power, with decreased frontal theta power associated with poor performance on the task. In addition, we found that poor performance was not explained by failures of sensory encoding; the P1/N1 response and ocular artifact rates were equivalent for high- and low-performance trials. In all, we propose that attentional lapses alone cannot explain individual differences in working memory performance. Instead, we find that graded fluctuations in attentional control better explain the trial-by-trial differences in working memory that we observe. PMID:25811710

A Simple Model for the Earthquake Cycle Combining Self-Organized Criticality with Critical Point Behavior

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newman, W. I.; Turcotte, D. L.

2002-12-01

We have studied a hybrid model combining the forest-fire model with the site-percolation model in order to better understand the earthquake cycle. We consider a square array of sites. At each time step, a "tree" is dropped on a randomly chosen site and is planted if the site is unoccupied. When a cluster of "trees" spans the site (a percolating cluster), all the trees in the cluster are removed ("burned") in a "fire." The removal of the cluster is analogous to a characteristic earthquake and planting "trees" is analogous to increasing the regional stress. The clusters are analogous to the metastable regions of a fault over which an earthquake rupture can propagate once triggered. We find that the frequency-area statistics of the metastable regions are power-law with a negative exponent of two (as in the forest-fire model). This is analogous to the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of seismicity. This "self-organized critical behavior" can be explained in terms of an inverse cascade of clusters. Individual trees move from small to larger clusters until they are destroyed. This inverse cascade of clusters is self-similar and the power-law distribution of cluster sizes has been shown to have an exponent of two. We have quantified the forecasting of the spanning fires using error diagrams. The assumption that "fires" (earthquakes) are quasi-periodic has moderate predictability. The density of trees gives an improved degree of predictability, while the size of the largest cluster of trees provides a substantial improvement in forecasting a "fire."

Black-box modeling to estimate tissue temperature during radiofrequency catheter cardiac ablation: Feasibility study on an agar phantom model.

PubMed

Blasco-Gimenez, Ramón; Lequerica, Juan L; Herrero, Maria; Hornero, Fernando; Berjano, Enrique J

2010-04-01

The aim of this work was to study linear deterministic models to predict tissue temperature during radiofrequency cardiac ablation (RFCA) by measuring magnitudes such as electrode temperature, power and impedance between active and dispersive electrodes. The concept involves autoregressive models with exogenous input (ARX), which is a particular case of the autoregressive moving average model with exogenous input (ARMAX). The values of the mode parameters were determined from a least-squares fit of experimental data. The data were obtained from radiofrequency ablations conducted on agar models with different contact pressure conditions between electrode and agar (0 and 20 g) and different flow rates around the electrode (1, 1.5 and 2 L min(-1)). Half of all the ablations were chosen randomly to be used for identification (i.e. determination of model parameters) and the other half were used for model validation. The results suggest that (1) a linear model can be developed to predict tissue temperature at a depth of 4.5 mm during RF cardiac ablation by using the variables applied power, impedance and electrode temperature; (2) the best model provides a reasonably accurate estimate of tissue temperature with a 60% probability of achieving average errors better than 5 degrees C; (3) substantial errors (larger than 15 degrees C) were found only in 6.6% of cases and were associated with abnormal experiments (e.g. those involving the displacement of the ablation electrode) and (4) the impact of measuring impedance on the overall estimate is negligible (around 1 degrees C).

CHROMOSPHERIC NANOFLARES AS A SOURCE OF CORONAL PLASMA. II. REPEATING NANOFLARES

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Bradshaw, S. J.; Klimchuk, J. A., E-mail: stephen.bradshaw@rice.edu, E-mail: James.A.Klimchuk@nasa.gov

The million degree plasma of the solar corona must be supplied by the underlying layers of the atmosphere. The mechanism and location of energy release, and the precise source of coronal plasma, remain unresolved. In earlier work, we pursued the idea that warm plasma is supplied to the corona via direct heating of the chromosphere by nanoflares, contrary to the prevailing belief that the corona is heated in situ and the chromosphere is subsequently energized and ablated by thermal conduction. We found that single (low-frequency) chromospheric nanoflares could not explain the observed intensities, Doppler-shifts, and red/blue asymmetries in Fe xiimore » and xiv emission lines. In the present work, we follow up on another suggestion that the corona could be powered by chromospheric nanoflares that repeat on a timescale substantially shorter than the cooling/draining timescale. That is, a single magnetic strand is re-supplied with coronal plasma before the existing plasma has time to cool and drain. We perform a series of hydrodynamic experiments and predict the Fe xii and xiv line intensities, Doppler-shifts, and red/blue asymmetries. We find that our predicted quantities disagree dramatically with observations and fully developed loop structures cannot be created by intermediate- or high-frequency chromospheric nanoflares. We conclude that the mechanism ultimately responsible for producing coronal plasma operates above the chromosphere, but this does not preclude the possibility of a similar mechanism powering the chromosphere, extreme examples of which may be responsible for heating chromospheric plasma to transition region temperatures (e.g., type II spicules)« less

Plasma Interaction with International Space Station High Voltage Solar Arrays

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heard, John W.

2002-01-01

The International Space Station (ISS) is presently being assembled in low-earth orbit (LEO) operating high voltage solar arrays (-160 V max, -140 V typical with respect to the ambient atmosphere). At the station's present altitude, there exists substantial ambient plasma that can interact with the solar arrays. The biasing of an object to an electric potential immersed in plasma creates a plasma "sheath" or non-equilibrium plasma around the object to mask out the electric fields. A positively biased object can collect electrons from the plasma sheath and the sheath will draw a current from the surrounding plasma. This parasitic current can enter the solar cells and effectively "short out" the potential across the cells, reducing the power that can be generated by the panels. Predictions of collected current based on previous high voltage experiments (SAMPIE (Solar Array Module Plasma Interactions Experiment), PASP+ (Photovoltaic Array Space Power) were on the order of amperes of current. However, present measurements of parasitic current are on the order of several milliamperes, and the current collection mainly occurs during an "eclipse exit" event, i.e., when the space station comes out of darkness. This collection also has a time scale, t approx. 1000 s, that is much slower than any known plasma interaction time scales. The reason for the discrepancy between predictions and present electron collection is not understood and is under investigation by the PCU (Plasma Contactor Unit) "Tiger" team. This paper will examine the potential structure within and around the solar arrays, and the possible causes and reasons for the electron collection of the array.

Performance and Loads Correlation of a UH-60A Slowed Rotor at High Advance Ratios

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kottapalli, Sesi B.

2012-01-01

Measured data from the slowed rotor part of the 2010 UH-60A Airloads Rotor test in the NASA Ames 40- by 80- Foot Wind Tunnel are compared with CAMRAD II calculations. The emphasis in this initial study is to correlate overall trends. This analytical effort considers advance ratios from 0.3 to 1.0, with the rotor rotational speed at 40%NR. The rotor performance parameters considered are the thrust coefficient, power coefficient, L/DE, torque, and H-force. The blade loads considered are the half peak-to-peak, mid-span and outboard torsion, flatwise, and chordwise moments, and the pitch link load. For advance ratios . 0.7, the overall trends for the performance and loads (excluding the pitch link load) could be captured, but with substantial overprediction or underprediction. The correlation gradually deteriorates as the advance ratio is increased and for advance ratios . 0.8 there is no correlation. The pitch link load correlation is not good. There is considerable scope for improvement in the prediction of the blade loads. Considering the modeling complexity associated with the unconventional operating condition under consideration, the current predictive ability to capture overall trends is encouraging.

Elastic pion-nucleon scattering in chiral perturbation theory: A fresh look

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Siemens, D.; Bernard, V.; Epelbaum, E.; Gasparyan, A.; Krebs, H.; Meißner, Ulf-G.

2016-07-01

Elastic pion-nucleon scattering is analyzed in the framework of chiral perturbation theory up to fourth order within the heavy-baryon expansion and a covariant approach based on an extended on-mass-shell renormalization scheme. We discuss in detail the renormalization of the various low-energy constants and provide explicit expressions for the relevant β functions and the finite subtractions of the power-counting breaking terms within the covariant formulation. To estimate the theoretical uncertainty from the truncation of the chiral expansion, we employ an approach which has been successfully applied in the most recent analysis of the nuclear forces. This allows us to reliably extract the relevant low-energy constants from the available scattering data at low energy. The obtained results provide clear evidence that the breakdown scale of the chiral expansion for this reaction is related to the Δ resonance. The explicit inclusion of the leading contributions of the Δ isobar is demonstrated to substantially increase the range of applicability of the effective field theory. The resulting predictions for the phase shifts are in an excellent agreement with the predictions from the recent Roy-Steiner-equation analysis of pion-nucleon scattering.

Sequence determinants of improved CRISPR sgRNA design.

PubMed

Xu, Han; Xiao, Tengfei; Chen, Chen-Hao; Li, Wei; Meyer, Clifford A; Wu, Qiu; Wu, Di; Cong, Le; Zhang, Feng; Liu, Jun S; Brown, Myles; Liu, X Shirley

2015-08-01

The CRISPR/Cas9 system has revolutionized mammalian somatic cell genetics. Genome-wide functional screens using CRISPR/Cas9-mediated knockout or dCas9 fusion-mediated inhibition/activation (CRISPRi/a) are powerful techniques for discovering phenotype-associated gene function. We systematically assessed the DNA sequence features that contribute to single guide RNA (sgRNA) efficiency in CRISPR-based screens. Leveraging the information from multiple designs, we derived a new sequence model for predicting sgRNA efficiency in CRISPR/Cas9 knockout experiments. Our model confirmed known features and suggested new features including a preference for cytosine at the cleavage site. The model was experimentally validated for sgRNA-mediated mutation rate and protein knockout efficiency. Tested on independent data sets, the model achieved significant results in both positive and negative selection conditions and outperformed existing models. We also found that the sequence preference for CRISPRi/a is substantially different from that for CRISPR/Cas9 knockout and propose a new model for predicting sgRNA efficiency in CRISPRi/a experiments. These results facilitate the genome-wide design of improved sgRNA for both knockout and CRISPRi/a studies. © 2015 Xu et al.; Published by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.

Improved cryoEM-Guided Iterative Molecular Dynamics–Rosetta Protein Structure Refinement Protocol for High Precision Protein Structure Prediction

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Many excellent methods exist that incorporate cryo-electron microscopy (cryoEM) data to constrain computational protein structure prediction and refinement. Previously, it was shown that iteration of two such orthogonal sampling and scoring methods – Rosetta and molecular dynamics (MD) simulations – facilitated exploration of conformational space in principle. Here, we go beyond a proof-of-concept study and address significant remaining limitations of the iterative MD–Rosetta protein structure refinement protocol. Specifically, all parts of the iterative refinement protocol are now guided by medium-resolution cryoEM density maps, and previous knowledge about the native structure of the protein is no longer necessary. Models are identified solely based on score or simulation time. All four benchmark proteins showed substantial improvement through three rounds of the iterative refinement protocol. The best-scoring final models of two proteins had sub-Ångstrom RMSD to the native structure over residues in secondary structure elements. Molecular dynamics was most efficient in refining secondary structure elements and was thus highly complementary to the Rosetta refinement which is most powerful in refining side chains and loop regions. PMID:25883538

Distributed data transmitter

DOEpatents

Brown, Kenneth Dewayne [Grain Valley, MO; Dunson, David [Kansas City, MO

2006-08-08

A distributed data transmitter (DTXR) which is an adaptive data communication microwave transmitter having a distributable architecture of modular components, and which incorporates both digital and microwave technology to provide substantial improvements in physical and operational flexibility. The DTXR has application in, for example, remote data acquisition involving the transmission of telemetry data across a wireless link, wherein the DTXR is integrated into and utilizes available space within a system (e.g., a flight vehicle). In a preferred embodiment, the DTXR broadly comprises a plurality of input interfaces; a data modulator; a power amplifier; and a power converter, all of which are modularly separate and distinct so as to be substantially independently physically distributable and positionable throughout the system wherever sufficient space is available.

Distributed data transmitter

DOEpatents

Brown, Kenneth Dewayne [Grain Valley, MO; Dunson, David [Kansas City, MO

2008-06-03

A distributed data transmitter (DTXR) which is an adaptive data communication microwave transmitter having a distributable architecture of modular components, and which incorporates both digital and microwave technology to provide substantial improvements in physical and operational flexibility. The DTXR has application in, for example, remote data acquisition involving the transmission of telemetry data across a wireless link, wherein the DTXR is integrated into and utilizes available space within a system (e.g., a flight vehicle). In a preferred embodiment, the DTXR broadly comprises a plurality of input interfaces; a data modulator; a power amplifier; and a power converter, all of which are modularly separate and distinct so as to be substantially independently physically distributable and positionable throughout the system wherever sufficient space is available.

338-GHz Semiconductor Amplifier Module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Samoska, Lorene A.; Gaier, Todd C.; Soria, Mary M.; Fung, King Man; Rasisic, Vesna; Deal, William; Leong, Kevin; Mei, Xiao Bing; Yoshida, Wayne; Liu, Po-Hsin;

Torque Enhancement, Spin Equilibrium, and Jet Power from Disk-Induced Opening of Pulsar Magnetic Fields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Parfrey, Kyle; Spitkovsky, Anatoly; Beloborodov, Andrei M.

2016-05-01

The interaction of a rotating star’s magnetic field with a surrounding plasma disk lies at the heart of many questions posed by neutron stars in X-ray binaries. We consider the opening of stellar magnetic flux due to differential rotation along field lines coupling the star and disk, using a simple model for the disk-opened flux, the torques exerted on the star by the magnetosphere, and the power extracted by the electromagnetic wind. We examine the conditions under which the system enters an equilibrium spin state, in which the accretion torque is instantaneously balanced by the pulsar wind torque alone. For magnetic moments, spin frequencies, and accretion rates relevant to accreting millisecond pulsars, the spin-down torque from this enhanced pulsar wind can be substantially larger than that predicted by existing models of the disk-magnetosphere interaction, and is in principle capable of maintaining spin equilibrium at frequencies less than 1 kHz. We speculate that this mechanism may account for the non-detection of frequency increases during outbursts of SAX J1808.4-3658 and XTE J1814-338, and may be generally responsible for preventing spin-up to sub-millisecond periods. If the pulsar wind is collimated by the surrounding environment, the resulting jet can satisfy the power requirements of the highly relativistic outflows from Cir X-1 and Sco X-1. In this framework, the jet power scales relatively weakly with accretion rate, {L}{{j}}\\propto {\\dot{M}}4/7, and would be suppressed at high accretion rates only if the stellar magnetic moment is sufficiently low.

Nanolaminated Permalloy Core for High-Flux, High-Frequency Ultracompact Power Conversion

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Kim, J; Kim, M; Galle, P

2013-09-01

Metallic magnetic materials have desirable magnetic properties, including high permeability, and high saturation flux density, when compared with their ferrite counterparts. However, eddy-current losses preclude their use in many switching converter applications, due to the challenge of simultaneously achieving sufficiently thin laminations such that eddy currents are suppressed (e.g., 500 nm-1 mu m for megahertz frequencies), while simultaneously achieving overall core thicknesses such that substantial power can be handled. A CMOS-compatible fabrication process based on robot-assisted sequential electrodeposition followed by selective chemical etching has been developed for the realization of a core of substantial overall thickness (tens to hundreds ofmore » micrometers) comprised of multiple, stacked permalloy (Ni80Fe20) nanolaminations. Tests of toroidal inductors with nanolaminated cores showed negligible eddy-current loss relative to total core loss even at a peak flux density of 0.5 T in the megahertz frequency range. To illustrate the use of these cores, a buck power converter topology is implemented with switching frequencies of 1-2 MHz. Power conversion efficiency greater than 85% with peak operating flux density of 0.3-0.5 T in the core and converter output power level exceeding 5 W was achieved.« less

Climate, soil or both? Which variables are better predictors of the distributions of Australian shrub species?

PubMed Central

Esperón-Rodríguez, Manuel; Baumgartner, John B.; Beaumont, Linda J.

2017-01-01

Background Shrubs play a key role in biogeochemical cycles, prevent soil and water erosion, provide forage for livestock, and are a source of food, wood and non-wood products. However, despite their ecological and societal importance, the influence of different environmental variables on shrub distributions remains unclear. We evaluated the influence of climate and soil characteristics, and whether including soil variables improved the performance of a species distribution model (SDM), Maxent. Methods This study assessed variation in predictions of environmental suitability for 29 Australian shrub species (representing dominant members of six shrubland classes) due to the use of alternative sets of predictor variables. Models were calibrated with (1) climate variables only, (2) climate and soil variables, and (3) soil variables only. Results The predictive power of SDMs differed substantially across species, but generally models calibrated with both climate and soil data performed better than those calibrated only with climate variables. Models calibrated solely with soil variables were the least accurate. We found regional differences in potential shrub species richness across Australia due to the use of different sets of variables. Conclusions Our study provides evidence that predicted patterns of species richness may be sensitive to the choice of predictor set when multiple, plausible alternatives exist, and demonstrates the importance of considering soil properties when modeling availability of habitat for plants. PMID:28652933

Modeling the Etiology of Adolescent Substance Use: A Test of the Social Development Model

PubMed Central

Catalano, Richard F.; Kosterman, Rick; Hawkins, J. David; Newcomb, Michael D.; Abbott, Robert D.

2007-01-01

The social development model is a general theory of human behavior that seeks to explain antisocial behaviors through specification of predictive developmental relationships. It incorporates the effects of empirical predictors (“risk factors” and “protective factors”) for antisocial behavior and attempts to synthesize the most strongly supported propositions of control theory, social learning theory, and differential association theory. This article examines the power of social development model constructs measured at ages 9 to 10 and 13 to 14 to predict drug use at ages 17 to 18. The sample of 590 is from the longitudinal panel of the Seattle Social Development Project, which in 1985 sampled fifth grade students from high crime neighborhoods in Seattle, Washington. Structural equation modeling techniques were used to examine the fit of the model to the data. Although all but one path coefficient were significant and in the expected direction, the model did not fit the data as well as expected (CFI=.87). We next specified second-order factors for each path to capture the substantial common variance in the constructs' opportunities, involvement, and rewards. This model fit the data well (CFI=.90). We conclude that the social development model provides an acceptable fit to predict drug use at ages 17 to 18. Implications for the temporal nature of key constructs and for prevention are discussed. PMID:17848978

Systems Dynamic Modeling of the Stomatal Guard Cell Predicts Emergent Behaviors in Transport, Signaling, and Volume Control1[W][OA

PubMed Central

Chen, Zhong-Hua; Hills, Adrian; Bätz, Ulrike; Amtmann, Anna; Lew, Virgilio L.; Blatt, Michael R.

2012-01-01

The dynamics of stomatal movements and their consequences for photosynthesis and transpirational water loss have long been incorporated into mathematical models, but none have been developed from the bottom up that are widely applicable in predicting stomatal behavior at a cellular level. We previously established a systems dynamic model incorporating explicitly the wealth of biophysical and kinetic knowledge available for guard cell transport, signaling, and homeostasis. Here we describe the behavior of the model in response to experimentally documented changes in primary pump activities and malate (Mal) synthesis imposed over a diurnal cycle. We show that the model successfully recapitulates the cyclic variations in H+, K+, Cl−, and Mal concentrations in the cytosol and vacuole known for guard cells. It also yields a number of unexpected and counterintuitive outputs. Among these, we report a diurnal elevation in cytosolic-free Ca2+ concentration and an exchange of vacuolar Cl− with Mal, both of which find substantiation in the literature but had previously been suggested to require additional and complex levels of regulation. These findings highlight the true predictive power of the OnGuard model in providing a framework for systems analysis of stomatal guard cells, and they demonstrate the utility of the OnGuard software and HoTSig library in exploring fundamental problems in cellular physiology and homeostasis. PMID:22635112

THE FERTILITY MOTIVATIONS OF YOUTH PREDICT LATER FERTILITY OUTCOMES: A PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF NLSY DATA*

PubMed Central

Miller, Warren B.; Rodgers, Joseph Lee; Pasta, David J.

2010-01-01

We examine how the motivational sequence that leads to childbearing predicts fertility outcomes across reproductive careers. Using a motivational traits-desires-intentions theoretical framework, we test a structural equation model using prospective male and female data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Specifically, we take motivational data collected during the 1979–1982 period, when the youths were in their teens and early twenties, to predict the timing of the next child born after 1982 and the total number of children born by 2002. Separate models were estimated for males and females but with equality constraints imposed unless relaxing these constraints improved the overall model fit. The results indicate substantial explanatory power of fertility motivations for both short-term and long-term fertility outcomes. They also reveal the effects of both gender role attitude and educational intentions on these outcomes. Although some sex differences in model pathways occurred, the primary hypothesized pathways were essentially the same across the sexes. Two validity substudies support the soundness of the results. A third substudy comparing the male and female models across the sample split on the basis of previous childbearing revealed a number of pattern differences within the four sex-by-previous childbearing groups. Several of the more robust of these pattern differences offer interesting insights and support the validity and usefulness of our theoretical framework. PMID:20463915

POWER/SSE Web Access Data

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-06-25

Description:  Obtain Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) data The Prediction of Worldwide Energy ... (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current renewable energy data set and to create new data sets from new satellite ...

Research on prediction of agricultural machinery total power based on grey model optimized by genetic algorithm

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Xie, Yan; Li, Mu; Zhou, Jin; Zheng, Chang-zheng

2009-07-01

Agricultural machinery total power is an important index to reflex and evaluate the level of agricultural mechanization. It is the power source of agricultural production, and is the main factors to enhance the comprehensive agricultural production capacity expand production scale and increase the income of the farmers. Its demand is affected by natural, economic, technological and social and other "grey" factors. Therefore, grey system theory can be used to analyze the development of agricultural machinery total power. A method based on genetic algorithm optimizing grey modeling process is introduced in this paper. This method makes full use of the advantages of the grey prediction model and characteristics of genetic algorithm to find global optimization. So the prediction model is more accurate. According to data from a province, the GM (1, 1) model for predicting agricultural machinery total power was given based on the grey system theories and genetic algorithm. The result indicates that the model can be used as agricultural machinery total power an effective tool for prediction.

Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rosgaard, Martin; Giebel, Gregor; Skov Nielsen, Torben; Hahmann, Andrea; Sørensen, Poul; Madsen, Henrik

2013-04-01

This poster presents the current state of the public service obligation (PSO) funded project PSO 10464, with the title "Integrated Wind Power Planning Tool". The goal is to integrate a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with purely statistical tools in order to assess wind power fluctuations, with focus on long term power system planning for future wind farms as well as short term forecasting for existing wind farms. Currently, wind power fluctuation models are either purely statistical or integrated with NWP models of limited resolution. Using the state-of-the-art mesoscale NWP model Weather Research & Forecasting model (WRF) the forecast error is sought quantified in dependence of the time scale involved. This task constitutes a preparative study for later implementation of features accounting for NWP forecast errors in the DTU Wind Energy maintained Corwind code - a long term wind power planning tool. Within the framework of PSO 10464 research related to operational short term wind power prediction will be carried out, including a comparison of forecast quality at different mesoscale NWP model resolutions and development of a statistical wind power prediction tool taking input from WRF. The short term prediction part of the project is carried out in collaboration with ENFOR A/S; a Danish company that specialises in forecasting and optimisation for the energy sector. The integrated prediction model will allow for the description of the expected variability in wind power production in the coming hours to days, accounting for its spatio-temporal dependencies, and depending on the prevailing weather conditions defined by the WRF output. The output from the integrated short term prediction tool constitutes scenario forecasts for the coming period, which can then be fed into any type of system model or decision making problem to be solved. The high resolution of the WRF results loaded into the integrated prediction model will ensure a high accuracy data basis is available for use in the decision making process of the Danish transmission system operator. The need for high accuracy predictions will only increase over the next decade as Denmark approaches the goal of 50% wind power based electricity in 2025 from the current 20%.

Method for predicting water demand for crop uses in New Jersey in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020, and for estimating water use for livestock and selected sectors of the food-processing industry in New Jersey in 1987

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clawges, R.M.; Titus, E.O.

1993-01-01

A method was developed to predict water demand for crop uses in New Jersey. A separate method was developed to estimate water use for livestock and selected sectors of the food-processing industry in 1987. Predictions of water demand for field- grown crops in New Jersey were made for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020 under three climatological scenarios: (1) wet year, (2) average year, and (3) drought year. These estimates ranged from 4.10 times 10 to the 9th power to 16.82 times 10 to the 9th power gal (gallons). Irrigation amounts calculated for the three climatological scenarios by using a daily water-balance model were multiplied by predicted numbers of irrigated acreage. Irrigated acreage was predicted from historical crop-irrigation data and from predictions of harvested acreage produced by using a statistical model relating population to harvested acreage. Predictions of water demand for cranberries and container-grown nursery crops also were made for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Predictions of water demand under the three climatological scenarios were made for container- grown nursery crops, but not for cranberries, because water demand for cranberries varies little in response to climatological factors. Water demand for cranberries was predicted to remain constant at 4.43 times 10 to the 9th power gal through the year 2020. Predictions of water demand for container-grown nursery crops ranged from 1.89 times 10 to the 9th power to 3.63 times 10 to the 9th power gal. Water-use for livestock in 1987 was estimated to be 0.78 times 10 to the 9th power gal, and water use for selected sectors of the food-processing industry was estimated to be 3.75 times 10 to the 9th power gal.

Super H-mode: theoretical prediction and initial observations of a new high performance regime for tokamak operation

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Snyder, Philip B.; Solomon, Wayne M.; Burrell, Keith H.

2015-07-21

A new “Super H-mode” regime is predicted, which enables pedestal height and predicted fusion performance substantially higher than for H-mode operation. This new regime is predicted to exist by the EPED pedestal model, which calculates criticality constraints for peeling-ballooning and kinetic ballooning modes, and combines them to predict the pedestal height and width. EPED usually predicts a single (“H-mode”) pedestal solution for each set of input parameters, however, in strongly shaped plasmas above a critical density, multiple pedestal solutions are found, including the standard “Hmode” solution, and a “Super H-Mode” solution at substantially larger pedestal height and width. The Supermore » H-mode regime is predicted to be accessible by controlling the trajectory of the density, and to increase fusion performance for ITER, as well as for DEMO designs with strong shaping. A set of experiments on DIII-D has identified the predicted Super H-mode regime, and finds pedestal height and width, and their variation with density, in good agreement with theoretical predictions from the EPED model. Finally, the very high pedestal enables operation at high global beta and high confinement, including the highest normalized beta achieved on DIII-D with a quiescent edge.« less

Prospects for Improved Forecasts of Weather and Short-Term Climate Variability on Subseasonal (2-Week to 2-Month) Times Scales

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Schubert, Siegfried; Dole, Randall; vandenDool, Huug; Suarez, Max; Waliser, Duane

2002-01-01

This workshop, held in April 2002, brought together various Earth Sciences experts to focus on the subseasonal prediction problem. While substantial advances have occurred over the last few decades in both weather and seasonal prediction, progress in improving predictions on these intermediate time scales (time scales ranging from about two weeks to two months) has been slow. The goals of the workshop were to get an assessment of the "state of the art" in predictive skill on these time scales, to determine the potential sources of "untapped" predictive skill, and to make recommendations for a course of action that will accelerate progress in this area. One of the key conclusions of the workshop was that there is compelling evidence for predictability at forecast lead times substantially longer than two weeks. Tropical diabatic heating and soil wetness were singled out as particularly important processes affecting predictability on these time scales. Predictability was also linked to various low-frequency atmospheric "phenomena" such as the annular modes in high latitudes (including their connections to the stratosphere), the Pacific/North American (PNA) pattern, and the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO). The latter, in particular, was highlighted as a key source of untapped predictability in the tropics and subtropics, including the Asian and Australian monsoon regions.

Hydrogen fuel cells could power ships at port

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Pratt, Joe

Sandia National Laboratories researcher Joe Pratt conducted a study on the use of hydrogen fuel cells to power docked ships at major ports. He found the potential environmental and cost benefits to be substantial. Here, he discusses the study and explains how hydrogen fuel cells can provide efficient, pollution-free energy to ships at port.

Hydrogen fuel cells could power ships at port

ScienceCinema

Pratt, Joe

2018-01-16

Sandia National Laboratories researcher Joe Pratt conducted a study on the use of hydrogen fuel cells to power docked ships at major ports. He found the potential environmental and cost benefits to be substantial. Here, he discusses the study and explains how hydrogen fuel cells can provide efficient, pollution-free energy to ships at port.

26 CFR 1.672(a)-1 - Definition of adverse party.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... TAX (CONTINUED) INCOME TAXES Grantors and Others Treated As Substantial Owners § 1.672(a)-1 Definition... a power which he possesses respecting the trust. A trustee is not an adverse party merely because of his interest as trustee. A person having a general power of appointment over the trust property is...

Rechargeable Lithium-Ion Based Batteries and Thermal Management for Airborne High Energy Electric Lasers (Preprint)

DTIC Science & Technology

2006-08-01

applications have been substantial. Rechargeable high rate lithium - ion batteries are now exceeding 6 kW/kg for short discharge times 15 seconds...rechargeable lithium - ion batteries as a function of onboard power, electric laser power level, laser duty cycle, and total mission time is presented. A number

Longitudinal design considerations to optimize power to detect variances and covariances among rates of change: Simulation results based on actual longitudinal studies

PubMed Central

Rast, Philippe; Hofer, Scott M.

2014-01-01

We investigated the power to detect variances and covariances in rates of change in the context of existing longitudinal studies using linear bivariate growth curve models. Power was estimated by means of Monte Carlo simulations. Our findings show that typical longitudinal study designs have substantial power to detect both variances and covariances among rates of change in a variety of cognitive, physical functioning, and mental health outcomes. We performed simulations to investigate the interplay among number and spacing of occasions, total duration of the study, effect size, and error variance on power and required sample size. The relation between growth rate reliability (GRR) and effect size to the sample size required to detect power ≥ .80 was non-linear, with rapidly decreasing sample sizes needed as GRR increases. The results presented here stand in contrast to previous simulation results and recommendations (Hertzog, Lindenberger, Ghisletta, & von Oertzen, 2006; Hertzog, von Oertzen, Ghisletta, & Lindenberger, 2008; von Oertzen, Ghisletta, & Lindenberger, 2010), which are limited due to confounds between study length and number of waves, error variance with GCR, and parameter values which are largely out of bounds of actual study values. Power to detect change is generally low in the early phases (i.e. first years) of longitudinal studies but can substantially increase if the design is optimized. We recommend additional assessments, including embedded intensive measurement designs, to improve power in the early phases of long-term longitudinal studies. PMID:24219544

Plasma Oscillation Characterization of NASA's HERMeS Hall Thruster via High Speed Imaging

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Huang, Wensheng; Kamhawi, Hani; Haag, Thomas W.

2016-01-01

For missions beyond low Earth orbit, spacecraft size and mass can be dominated by onboard chemical propulsion systems and propellants that may constitute more than 50 percent of the spacecraft mass. This impact can be substantially reduced through the utilization of Solar Electric Propulsion (SEP) due to its substantially higher specific impulse. Studies performed for NASA's Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate and Science Mission Directorate have demonstrated that a 50kW-class SEP capability can be enabling for both near term and future architectures and science missions. A high-power SEP element is integral to the Evolvable Mars Campaign, which presents an approach to establish an affordable evolutionary human exploration architecture. To enable SEP missions at the power levels required for these applications, an in-space demonstration of an operational 50kW-class SEP spacecraft has been proposed as a SEP Technology Demonstration Mission (TDM). In 2010 NASA's Space Technology Mission Directorate (STMD) began developing high-power electric propulsion technologies. The maturation of these critical technologies has made mission concepts utilizing high-power SEP viable.

Regional Arctic sea-ice prediction: potential versus operational seasonal forecast skill

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bushuk, Mitchell; Msadek, Rym; Winton, Michael; Vecchi, Gabriel; Yang, Xiaosong; Rosati, Anthony; Gudgel, Rich

2018-06-01

Seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice on regional spatial scales are a pressing need for a broad group of stakeholders, however, most assessments of predictability and forecast skill to date have focused on pan-Arctic sea-ice extent (SIE). In this work, we present the first direct comparison of perfect model (PM) and operational (OP) seasonal prediction skill for regional Arctic SIE within a common dynamical prediction system. This assessment is based on two complementary suites of seasonal prediction ensemble experiments performed with a global coupled climate model. First, we present a suite of PM predictability experiments with start dates spanning the calendar year, which are used to quantify the potential regional SIE prediction skill of this system. Second, we assess the system's OP prediction skill for detrended regional SIE using a suite of retrospective initialized seasonal forecasts spanning 1981-2016. In nearly all Arctic regions and for all target months, we find a substantial skill gap between PM and OP predictions of regional SIE. The PM experiments reveal that regional winter SIE is potentially predictable at lead times beyond 12 months, substantially longer than the skill of their OP counterparts. Both the OP and PM predictions display a spring prediction skill barrier for regional summer SIE forecasts, indicating a fundamental predictability limit for summer regional predictions. We find that a similar barrier exists for pan-Arctic sea-ice volume predictions, but is not present for predictions of pan-Arctic SIE. The skill gap identified in this work indicates a promising potential for future improvements in regional SIE predictions.

Application of clustering analysis in the prediction of photovoltaic power generation based on neural network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, K.; Guo, L. M.; Wang, Y. K.; Zafar, M. T.

2017-11-01

In order to select effective samples in the large number of data of PV power generation years and improve the accuracy of PV power generation forecasting model, this paper studies the application of clustering analysis in this field and establishes forecasting model based on neural network. Based on three different types of weather on sunny, cloudy and rainy days, this research screens samples of historical data by the clustering analysis method. After screening, it establishes BP neural network prediction models using screened data as training data. Then, compare the six types of photovoltaic power generation prediction models before and after the data screening. Results show that the prediction model combining with clustering analysis and BP neural networks is an effective method to improve the precision of photovoltaic power generation.

Integrated modelling of H-mode pedestal and confinement in JET-ILW

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saarelma, S.; Challis, C. D.; Garzotti, L.; Frassinetti, L.; Maggi, C. F.; Romanelli, M.; Stokes, C.; Contributors, JET

2018-01-01

A pedestal prediction model Europed is built on the existing EPED1 model by coupling it with core transport simulation using a Bohm-gyroBohm transport model to self-consistently predict JET-ILW power scan for hybrid plasmas that display weaker power degradation than the IPB98(y, 2) scaling of the energy confinement time. The weak power degradation is reproduced in the coupled core-pedestal simulation. The coupled core-pedestal model is further tested for a 3.0 MA plasma with the highest stored energy achieved in JET-ILW so far, giving a prediction of the stored plasma energy within the error margins of the measured experimental value. A pedestal density prediction model based on the neutral penetration is tested on a JET-ILW database giving a prediction with an average error of 17% from the experimental data when a parameter taking into account the fuelling rate is added into the model. However the model fails to reproduce the power dependence of the pedestal density implying missing transport physics in the model. The future JET-ILW deuterium campaign with increased heating power is predicted to reach plasma energy of 11 MJ, which would correspond to 11-13 MW of fusion power in equivalent deuterium-tritium plasma but with isotope effects on pedestal stability and core transport ignored.

Maximum predictive power and the superposition principle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Summhammer, Johann

1994-01-01

In quantum physics the direct observables are probabilities of events. We ask how observed probabilities must be combined to achieve what we call maximum predictive power. According to this concept the accuracy of a prediction must only depend on the number of runs whose data serve as input for the prediction. We transform each probability to an associated variable whose uncertainty interval depends only on the amount of data and strictly decreases with it. We find that for a probability which is a function of two other probabilities maximum predictive power is achieved when linearly summing their associated variables and transforming back to a probability. This recovers the quantum mechanical superposition principle.

Does ankle joint power reflect type of muscle action of soleus and gastrocnemius during walking in cats and humans?

PubMed

Cronin, Neil J; Prilutsky, Boris I; Lichtwark, Glen A; Maas, Huub

2013-04-26

The main objective of this paper is to highlight the difficulties of identifying shortening and lengthening contractions based on analysis of power produced by resultant joint moments. For that purpose, we present net ankle joint powers and muscle fascicle/muscle-tendon unit (MTU) velocities for medial gastrocnemius (MG) and soleus (SO) muscles during walking in species of different size (humans and cats). For the cat, patterns of ankle joint power and MTU velocity of MG and SO during stance were similar: negative power (ankle moment×angular velocity<0), indicating absorption of mechanical energy, was associated with MTU lengthening, and positive power (generation of mechanical energy) was found during MTU shortening. This was also found for the general fascicle velocity pattern in SO. In contrast, substantial differences between ankle joint power and fascicle velocity patterns were observed for MG muscle. In humans, like cats, the patterns of ankle joint power and MTU velocity of SO and MG were similar. Unlike the cat, there were substantial differences between patterns of fascicle velocity and ankle joint power during stance in both muscles. These results indicate that during walking, only a small fraction of mechanical work of the ankle moment is either generated or absorbed by the muscle fascicles, thus confirming the contribution of in-series elastic structures and/or energy transfer via two-joint muscles. We conclude that ankle joint negative power does not necessarily indicate eccentric action of muscle fibers and that positive power cannot be exclusively attributed to muscle concentric action, especially in humans. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Collaborative Completion of Transcription Factor Binding Profiles via Local Sensitive Unified Embedding.

PubMed

Zhu, Lin; Guo, Wei-Li; Lu, Canyi; Huang, De-Shuang

2016-12-01

Although the newly available ChIP-seq data provides immense opportunities for comparative study of regulatory activities across different biological conditions, due to cost, time or sample material availability, it is not always possible for researchers to obtain binding profiles for every protein in every sample of interest, which considerably limits the power of integrative studies. Recently, by leveraging related information from measured data, Ernst et al. proposed ChromImpute for predicting additional ChIP-seq and other types of datasets, it is demonstrated that the imputed signal tracks accurately approximate the experimentally measured signals, and thereby could potentially enhance the power of integrative analysis. Despite the success of ChromImpute, in this paper, we reexamine its learning process, and show that its performance may degrade substantially and sometimes may even fail to output a prediction when the available data is scarce. This limitation could hurt its applicability to important predictive tasks, such as the imputation of TF binding data. To alleviate this problem, we propose a novel method called Local Sensitive Unified Embedding (LSUE) for imputing new ChIP-seq datasets. In LSUE, the ChIP-seq data compendium are fused together by mapping proteins, samples, and genomic positions simultaneously into the Euclidean space, thereby making their underling associations directly evaluable using simple calculations. In contrast to ChromImpute which mainly makes use of the local correlations between available datasets, LSUE can better estimate the overall data structure by formulating the representation learning of all involved entities as a single unified optimization problem. Meanwhile, a novel form of local sensitive low rank regularization is also proposed to further improve the performance of LSUE. Experimental evaluations on the ENCODE TF ChIP-seq data illustrate the performance of the proposed model. The code of LSUE is available at https://github.com/ekffar/LSUE.

Foliar pH as a new plant trait: can it explain variation in foliar chemistry and carbon cycling processes among subarctic plant species and types?

PubMed

Cornelissen, J H C; Quested, H M; van Logtestijn, R S P; Pérez-Harguindeguy, N; Gwynn-Jones, D; Díaz, S; Callaghan, T V; Press, M C; Aerts, R

2006-03-01

Plant traits have become popular as predictors of interspecific variation in important ecosystem properties and processes. Here we introduce foliar pH as a possible new plant trait, and tested whether (1) green leaf pH or leaf litter pH correlates with biochemical and structural foliar traits that are linked to biogeochemical cycling; (2) there is consistent variation in green leaf pH or leaf litter pH among plant types as defined by nutrient uptake mode and higher taxonomy; (3) green leaf pH can predict a significant proportion of variation in leaf digestibility among plant species and types; (4) leaf litter pH can predict a significant proportion of variation in leaf litter decomposability among plant species and types. We found some evidence in support of all four hypotheses for a wide range of species in a subarctic flora, although cryptogams (fern allies and a moss) tended to weaken the patterns by showing relatively poor leaf digestibility or litter decomposability at a given pH. Among seed plant species, green leaf pH itself explained only up to a third of the interspecific variation in leaf digestibility and leaf litter up to a quarter of the interspecific variation in leaf litter decomposability. However, foliar pH substantially improved the power of foliar lignin and/or cellulose concentrations as predictors of these processes when added to regression models as a second variable. When species were aggregated into plant types as defined by higher taxonomy and nutrient uptake mode, green-specific leaf area was a more powerful predictor of digestibility or decomposability than any of the biochemical traits including pH. The usefulness of foliar pH as a new predictive trait, whether or not in combination with other traits, remains to be tested across more plant species, types and biomes, and also in relation to other plant or ecosystem traits and processes.

Testing and validating environmental models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kirchner, J.W.; Hooper, R.P.; Kendall, C.; Neal, C.; Leavesley, G.

1996-01-01

Generally accepted standards for testing and validating ecosystem models would benefit both modellers and model users. Universally applicable test procedures are difficult to prescribe, given the diversity of modelling approaches and the many uses for models. However, the generally accepted scientific principles of documentation and disclosure provide a useful framework for devising general standards for model evaluation. Adequately documenting model tests requires explicit performance criteria, and explicit benchmarks against which model performance is compared. A model's validity, reliability, and accuracy can be most meaningfully judged by explicit comparison against the available alternatives. In contrast, current practice is often characterized by vague, subjective claims that model predictions show 'acceptable' agreement with data; such claims provide little basis for choosing among alternative models. Strict model tests (those that invalid models are unlikely to pass) are the only ones capable of convincing rational skeptics that a model is probably valid. However, 'false positive' rates as low as 10% can substantially erode the power of validation tests, making them insufficiently strict to convince rational skeptics. Validation tests are often undermined by excessive parameter calibration and overuse of ad hoc model features. Tests are often also divorced from the conditions under which a model will be used, particularly when it is designed to forecast beyond the range of historical experience. In such situations, data from laboratory and field manipulation experiments can provide particularly effective tests, because one can create experimental conditions quite different from historical data, and because experimental data can provide a more precisely defined 'target' for the model to hit. We present a simple demonstration showing that the two most common methods for comparing model predictions to environmental time series (plotting model time series against data time series, and plotting predicted versus observed values) have little diagnostic power. We propose that it may be more useful to statistically extract the relationships of primary interest from the time series, and test the model directly against them.

Variable pressure power cycle and control system

DOEpatents

Goldsberry, Fred L.

1984-11-27

A variable pressure power cycle and control system that is adjustable to a variable heat source is disclosed. The power cycle adjusts itself to the heat source so that a minimal temperature difference is maintained between the heat source fluid and the power cycle working fluid, thereby substantially matching the thermodynamic envelope of the power cycle to the thermodynamic envelope of the heat source. Adjustments are made by sensing the inlet temperature of the heat source fluid and then setting a superheated vapor temperature and pressure to achieve a minimum temperature difference between the heat source fluid and the working fluid.

Solar Power Satellite (SPS) solid-state antenna power combiner

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1980-01-01

A low loss power-combining microstrip antenna suitable for solid state solar power satellite (SPS) application was developed. A unique approach for performing both the combining and radiating function in a single cavity-type circuit was verified, representing substantial refinements over previous demonstration models in terms of detailed geometry to obtain good matching and adequate bandwidth at the design frequency. The combiner circuit was designed, built, and tested and the overall results support the view that the solid state power-combining antenna approach is a viable candidate for a solid state SPS antenna building block.

Coastal geomorphology through the looking glass

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Sherman, Douglas J.; Bauer, Bernard O.

1993-07-01

Coastal geomorphology will gain future prominence as environmentally sound coastal zone management strategies, requiring scientific information, begin to supplant engineered shoreline stabilization schemes for amelioration of coastal hazards. We anticipate substantial change and progress over the next two decades, but we do not predict revolutionary advances in theoretical understanding of coastal geomorphic systems. Paradigm shifts will not occur; knowledge will advance incrementally. We offer predictions for specific coastal systems delineated according to scale. For the surf zone, we predict advances in wave shoaling theory, but not for wave breaking. We also predict greater understanding of turbulent processes, and substantive improvements in surf-zone circulation and radiation stress models. Very few of these improvements are expected to be incorporated in geomorphic models of coastal processes. We do not envision improvements in the theory of sediment transport, although some new and exciting empirical observations are probable. At the beach and nearshore scale, we predict the development of theoretically-based, two- and three-dimensional morphodynamical models that account for non-linear, time-dependent feedback processes using empirically calibrated modules. Most of the geomorphic research effort, however, will be concentrated at the scale of littoral cells. This scale is appropriate for coastal zone management because processes at this scale are manageable using traditional geomorphic techniques. At the largest scale, little advance will occur in our understanding of how coastlines evolve. Any empirical knowledge that is gained will accrue indirectly. Finally, we contend that anthropogenic influences, directly and indirectly, will be powerful forces in steering the future of Coastal Geomorphology. "If you should suddenly feel the need for a lesson in humility, try forecasting the future…" (Kleppner, 1991, p. 10).

Gene expression profile predicting the response to anti-TNF treatment in patients with rheumatoid arthritis; analysis of GEO datasets.

PubMed

Kim, Tae-Hwan; Choi, Sung Jae; Lee, Young Ho; Song, Gwan Gyu; Ji, Jong Dae

2014-07-01

Anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF) therapy is the treatment of choice for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients in whom standard disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs are ineffective. However, a substantial proportion of RA patients treated with anti-TNF agents do not show a significant clinical response. Therefore, biomarkers predicting response to anti-TNF agents are needed. Recently, gene expression profiling has been applied in research for developing such biomarkers. We compared gene expression profiles reported by previous studies dealing with the responsiveness of anti-TNF therapy in RA patients and attempted to identify differentially expressed genes (DEGs) that discriminated between responders and non-responders to anti-TNF therapy. We used microarray datasets available at the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO). This analysis included 6 studies and 5 sets of microarray data that used peripheral blood samples for identification of DEGs predicting response to anti-TNF therapy. We found little overlap in the DEGs that were highly ranked in each study. Three DEGs including IL2RB, SH2D2A and G0S2 appeared in more than 1 study. In addition, a meta-analysis designed to increase statistical power found one DEG, G0S2 by the Fisher's method. Our finding suggests the possibility that G0S2 plays as a biomarker to predict response to anti-TNF therapy in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. Further investigations based on larger studies are therefore needed to confirm the significance of G0S2 in predicting response to anti-TNF therapy. Copyright © 2014 Société française de rhumatologie. Published by Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

The validity of Iran’s national university entrance examination (Konkoor) for predicting medical students’ academic performance

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background In Iran, admission to medical school is based solely on the results of the highly competitive, nationwide Konkoor examination. This paper examines the predictive validity of Konkoor scores, alone and in combination with high school grade point averages (hsGPAs), for the academic performance of public medical school students in Iran. Methods This study followed the cohort of 2003 matriculants at public medical schools in Iran from entrance through internship. The predictor variables were Konkoor total and subsection scores and hsGPAs. The outcome variables were (1) Comprehensive Basic Sciences Exam (CBSE) scores; (2) Comprehensive Pre-Internship Exam (CPIE) scores; and (3) medical school grade point averages (msGPAs) for the courses taken before internship. Pearson correlation and regression analyses were used to assess the relationships between the selection criteria and academic performance. Results There were 2126 matriculants (1374 women and 752 men) in 2003. Among the outcome variables, the CBSE had the strongest association with the Konkoor total score (r = 0.473), followed by msGPA (r = 0.339) and the CPIE (r = 0.326). While adding hsGPAs to the Konkoor total score almost doubled the power to predict msGPAs (R2 = 0.225), it did not have a substantial effect on CBSE or CPIE prediction. Conclusions The Konkoor alone, and even in combination with hsGPA, is a relatively poor predictor of medical students’ academic performance, and its predictive validity declines over the academic years of medical school. Care should be taken to develop comprehensive admissions criteria, covering both cognitive and non-cognitive factors, to identify the best applicants to become "good doctors" in the future. The findings of this study can be helpful for policy makers in the medical education field. PMID:22840211

Does Spontaneous Favorability to Power (vs. Universalism) Values Predict Spontaneous Prejudice and Discrimination?

PubMed

Souchon, Nicolas; Maio, Gregory R; Hanel, Paul H P; Bardin, Brigitte

2017-10-01

We conducted five studies testing whether an implicit measure of favorability toward power over universalism values predicts spontaneous prejudice and discrimination. Studies 1 (N = 192) and 2 (N = 86) examined correlations between spontaneous favorability toward power (vs. universalism) values, achievement (vs. benevolence) values, and a spontaneous measure of prejudice toward ethnic minorities. Study 3 (N = 159) tested whether conditioning participants to associate power values with positive adjectives and universalism values with negative adjectives (or inversely) affects spontaneous prejudice. Study 4 (N = 95) tested whether decision bias toward female handball players could be predicted by spontaneous attitude toward power (vs. universalism) values. Study 5 (N = 123) examined correlations between spontaneous attitude toward power (vs. universalism) values, spontaneous importance toward power (vs. universalism) values, and spontaneous prejudice toward Black African people. Spontaneous positivity toward power (vs. universalism) values was associated with spontaneous negativity toward minorities and predicted gender bias in a decision task, whereas the explicit measures did not. These results indicate that the implicit assessment of evaluative responses attached to human values helps to model value-attitude-behavior relations. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Personality Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Electric Power Engineering Cost Predicting Model Based on the PCA-GA-BP

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wen, Lei; Yu, Jiake; Zhao, Xin

2017-10-01

In this paper a hybrid prediction algorithm: PCA-GA-BP model is proposed. PCA algorithm is established to reduce the correlation between indicators of original data and decrease difficulty of BP neural network in complex dimensional calculation. The BP neural network is established to estimate the cost of power transmission project. The results show that PCA-GA-BP algorithm can improve result of prediction of electric power engineering cost.

Evaluation of Data-Driven Models for Predicting Solar Photovoltaics Power Output

DOE PAGES

Moslehi, Salim; Reddy, T. Agami; Katipamula, Srinivas

2017-09-10

This research was undertaken to evaluate different inverse models for predicting power output of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems under different practical scenarios. In particular, we have investigated whether PV power output prediction accuracy can be improved if module/cell temperature was measured in addition to climatic variables, and also the extent to which prediction accuracy degrades if solar irradiation is not measured on the plane of array but only on a horizontal surface. We have also investigated the significance of different independent or regressor variables, such as wind velocity and incident angle modifier in predicting PV power output and cell temperature.more » The inverse regression model forms have been evaluated both in terms of their goodness-of-fit, and their accuracy and robustness in terms of their predictive performance. Given the accuracy of the measurements, expected CV-RMSE of hourly power output prediction over the year varies between 3.2% and 8.6% when only climatic data are used. Depending on what type of measured climatic and PV performance data is available, different scenarios have been identified and the corresponding appropriate modeling pathways have been proposed. The corresponding models are to be implemented on a controller platform for optimum operational planning of microgrids and integrated energy systems.« less

Estimating radiofrequency power deposition in body NMR imaging.

PubMed

Bottomley, P A; Redington, R W; Edelstein, W A; Schenck, J F

1985-08-01

Simple theoretical estimates of the average, maximum, and spatial variation of the radiofrequency power deposition (specific absorption rate) during hydrogen nuclear magnetic resonance imaging are deduced for homogeneous spheres and for cylinders of biological tissue with a uniformly penetrating linear rf field directed axially and transverse to the cylindrical axis. These are all simple scalar multiples of the expression for the cylinder in an axial field published earlier (Med. Phys. 8, 510 (1981]. Exact solutions for the power deposition in the cylinder with axial (Phys. Med. Biol. 23, 630 (1978] and transversely directed rf field are also presented, and the spatial variation of power deposition in head and body models is examined. In the exact models, the specific absorption rates decrease rapidly and monotonically with decreasing radius despite local increases in rf field amplitude. Conversion factors are provided for calculating the power deposited by Gaussian and sinc-modulated rf pulses used for slice selection in NMR imaging, relative to rectangular profiled pulses. Theoretical estimates are compared with direct measurements of the total power deposited in the bodies of nine adult males by a 63-MHz body-imaging system with transversely directed field, taking account of cable and NMR coil losses. The results for the average power deposition agree within about 20% for the exact model of the cylinder with axial field, when applied to the exposed torso volume enclosed by the rf coil. The average values predicted by the simple spherical and cylindrical models with axial fields, the exact cylindrical model with transverse field, and the simple truncated cylinder model with transverse field were about two to three times that measured, while the simple model consisting of an infinitely long cylinder with transverse field gave results about six times that measured. The surface power deposition measured by observing the incremental power as a function of external torso radius was comparable to the average value. This is consistent with the presence of a variable thickness peripheral adipose layer which does not substantially increase surface power deposition with increasing torso radius. The absence of highly localized intensity artifacts in 63-MHz body images does not suggest anomalously intense power deposition at localized internal sites, although peak power is difficult to measure.

Improved techniques for predicting spacecraft power

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Chmielewski, A. B.

1987-01-01

Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are going to supply power for the NASA Galileo and Ulysses spacecraft now scheduled to be launched in 1989 and 1990. The duration of the Galileo mission is expected to be over 8 years. This brings the total RTG lifetime to 13 years. In 13 years, the RTG power drops more than 20 percent leaving a very small power margin over what is consumed by the spacecraft. Thus it is very important to accurately predict the RTG performance and be able to assess the magnitude of errors involved. The paper lists all the error sources involved in the RTG power predictions and describes a statistical method for calculating the tolerance.

Thermal energy storage for organic Rankine cycle solar dynamic space power systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Heidenreich, G. R.; Parekh, M. B.

An organic Rankine cycle-solar dynamic power system (ORC-SDPS) comprises a concentrator, a radiator, a power conversion unit, and a receiver with a thermal energy storage (TES) subsystem which charges and discharges energy to meet power demands during orbital insolation and eclipse periods. Attention is presently given to the criteria used in designing and evaluating an ORC-SDPS TES, as well as the automated test facility employed. It is found that a substantial data base exists for the design of an ORC-SDPS TES subsystem.

AC power system breadboard

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wappes, Loran J.; Sundberg, R.; Mildice, J.; Peterson, D.; Hushing, S.

1987-01-01

The object of this program was to design, build, test, and deliver a high-frequency (20-kHz) Power System Breadboard which would electrically approximate a pair of dual redundant power channels of an IOC Space Station. This report describes that program, including the technical background, and discusses the results, showing that the major assumptions about the characteristics of this class of hardware (size, mass, efficiency, control, etc.) were substantially correct. This testbed equipment has been completed and delivered to LeRC, where it is operating as a part of the Space Station Power System Test Facility.

ESB-based Sensor Web integration for the prediction of electric power supply system vulnerability.

PubMed

Stoimenov, Leonid; Bogdanovic, Milos; Bogdanovic-Dinic, Sanja

2013-08-15

Electric power supply companies increasingly rely on enterprise IT systems to provide them with a comprehensive view of the state of the distribution network. Within a utility-wide network, enterprise IT systems collect data from various metering devices. Such data can be effectively used for the prediction of power supply network vulnerability. The purpose of this paper is to present the Enterprise Service Bus (ESB)-based Sensor Web integration solution that we have developed with the purpose of enabling prediction of power supply network vulnerability, in terms of a prediction of defect probability for a particular network element. We will give an example of its usage and demonstrate our vulnerability prediction model on data collected from two different power supply companies. The proposed solution is an extension of the GinisSense Sensor Web-based architecture for collecting, processing, analyzing, decision making and alerting based on the data received from heterogeneous data sources. In this case, GinisSense has been upgraded to be capable of operating in an ESB environment and combine Sensor Web and GIS technologies to enable prediction of electric power supply system vulnerability. Aside from electrical values, the proposed solution gathers ambient values from additional sensors installed in the existing power supply network infrastructure. GinisSense aggregates gathered data according to an adapted Omnibus data fusion model and applies decision-making logic on the aggregated data. Detected vulnerabilities are visualized to end-users through means of a specialized Web GIS application.

ESB-Based Sensor Web Integration for the Prediction of Electric Power Supply System Vulnerability

PubMed Central

Stoimenov, Leonid; Bogdanovic, Milos; Bogdanovic-Dinic, Sanja

2013-01-01

Electric power supply companies increasingly rely on enterprise IT systems to provide them with a comprehensive view of the state of the distribution network. Within a utility-wide network, enterprise IT systems collect data from various metering devices. Such data can be effectively used for the prediction of power supply network vulnerability. The purpose of this paper is to present the Enterprise Service Bus (ESB)-based Sensor Web integration solution that we have developed with the purpose of enabling prediction of power supply network vulnerability, in terms of a prediction of defect probability for a particular network element. We will give an example of its usage and demonstrate our vulnerability prediction model on data collected from two different power supply companies. The proposed solution is an extension of the GinisSense Sensor Web-based architecture for collecting, processing, analyzing, decision making and alerting based on the data received from heterogeneous data sources. In this case, GinisSense has been upgraded to be capable of operating in an ESB environment and combine Sensor Web and GIS technologies to enable prediction of electric power supply system vulnerability. Aside from electrical values, the proposed solution gathers ambient values from additional sensors installed in the existing power supply network infrastructure. GinisSense aggregates gathered data according to an adapted Omnibus data fusion model and applies decision-making logic on the aggregated data. Detected vulnerabilities are visualized to end-users through means of a specialized Web GIS application. PMID:23955435

Substantially self-powered method and apparatus for recovering hydrocarbons from hydrocarbon-containing solid hydrates

DOEpatents

Elliott, G.R.B.; Barraclough, B.L.; Vanderborgh, N.E.

1981-02-19

A method and apparatus are provided for producing gaseous hydrocarbons from formations comprising solid hydrocarbon hydrates located under either a body of land or a body of water. The vast natural resources of such hydrocarbon hydrates can thus now be economically mined. Relatively warm brine or water is brought down from an elevation above that of the hydrates through a portion of the apparatus, and passes in contact with the hydrates, thus melting them. The liquid then continues up another portion of the apparatus carrying entrained hydrocarbon vapors in the form of bubbles, which can easily be separated from the liquid. After a short startup procedure, the process and apparatus are substantially self-powered.

Substantially self-powered method and apparatus for recovering hydrocarbons from hydrocarbon-containing solid hydrates

DOEpatents

Elliott, Guy R. B.; Barraclough, Bruce L.; Vanderborgh, Nicholas E.

1983-01-01

A method and apparatus are provided for producing gaseous hydrocarbons from formations comprising solid hydrocarbon hydrates located under either a body of land or a body of water. The vast natural resources of such hydrocarbon hydrates can thus now be economically mined. Relatively warm brine or water is brought down from an elevation above that of the hydrates through a portion of the apparatus and passes in contact with the hydrates, thus melting them. The liquid then continues up another portion of the apparatus, carrying entrained hydrocarbon vapors in the form of bubbles, which can easily be separated from the liquid. After a short startup procedure, the process and apparatus are substantially self-powered.

Power quality analysis based on spatial correlation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Li, Jiangtao; Zhao, Gang; Liu, Haibo; Li, Fenghou; Liu, Xiaoli

2018-03-01

With the industrialization and urbanization, the status of electricity in the production and life is getting higher and higher. So the prediction of power quality is the more potential significance. Traditional power quality analysis methods include: power quality data compression, disturbance event pattern classification, disturbance parameter calculation. Under certain conditions, these methods can predict power quality. This paper analyses the temporal variation of power quality of one provincial power grid in China from time angle. The distribution of power quality was analyzed based on spatial autocorrelation. This paper tries to prove that the research idea of geography is effective for mining the potential information of power quality.

Contact lens overrefraction variability in corneal power estimation after refractive surgery.

PubMed

Joslin, Charlotte E; Koster, James; Tu, Elmer Y

2005-12-01

To evaluate the accuracy and precision of the contact lens overrefraction (CLO) method in determining corneal refractive power in post-refractive-surgery eyes. Refractive Surgery Service and Contact Lens Service, University of Illinois, Chicago, Illinois, USA. Fourteen eyes of 7 subjects who had a single myopic laser in situ keratomileusis procedure within 12 months with refractive stability were included in this prospective case series. The CLO method was compared with the historical method of predicting the corneal power using 4 different lens fitting strategies and 3 refractive pupil scan sizes (3 mm, 5 mm, and total pupil). Rigid lenses included 3 9.0 mm overall diameter lenses fit flat, steep, and an average of the 2, and a 15.0 mm diameter lens steep fit. Cycloplegic CLO was performed using the autorefractor function of the Nidek OPD-Scan ARK-10000. Results with each strategy were compared with the corneal power estimated with the historical method. The bias (mean of the difference), 95% limits of agreement, and difference versus mean plots for each strategy are presented. In each subject, the CLO-estimated corneal power varied based on lens fit. On average, the bias between CLO and historical methods ranged from -0.38 to +2.42 diopters (D) and was significantly different from 0 in all but 3 strategies. Substantial variability in precision existed between fitting strategies, with the range of the 95% limits of agreement approximating 0.50 D in 2 strategies and 2.59 D in the worst-case scenario. The least precise fitting strategy was use of flat-fitting 9.0 mm diameter lenses. The accuracy and precision of the CLO method of estimating corneal power in post-refractive-surgery eyes was highly variable on the basis of how rigid lense were fit. One of the most commonly used fitting strategies in clinical practice--flat-fitting a 9.0 diameter lens-resulted in the poorest accuracy and precision. Results also suggest use of large-diameter lenses may improve outcomes.

23 CFR 772.9 - Traffic noise prediction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-04-01

...) Average pavement type shall be used in the FHWA TNM for future noise level prediction unless a highway agency substantiates the use of a different pavement type for approval by the FHWA. (c) Noise contour... impact for the design year shall be used. ...

23 CFR 772.9 - Traffic noise prediction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-04-01

...) Average pavement type shall be used in the FHWA TNM for future noise level prediction unless a highway agency substantiates the use of a different pavement type for approval by the FHWA. (c) Noise contour... impact for the design year shall be used. ...

23 CFR 772.9 - Traffic noise prediction.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-04-01

...) Average pavement type shall be used in the FHWA TNM for future noise level prediction unless a highway agency substantiates the use of a different pavement type for approval by the FHWA. (c) Noise contour... impact for the design year shall be used. ...

Predicting power-optimal kinematics of avian wings

PubMed Central

Parslew, Ben

2015-01-01

A theoretical model of avian flight is developed which simulates wing motion through a class of methods known as predictive simulation. This approach uses numerical optimization to predict power-optimal kinematics of avian wings in hover, cruise, climb and descent. The wing dynamics capture both aerodynamic and inertial loads. The model is used to simulate the flight of the pigeon, Columba livia, and the results are compared with previous experimental measurements. In cruise, the model unearths a vast range of kinematic modes that are capable of generating the required forces for flight. The most efficient mode uses a near-vertical stroke–plane and a flexed-wing upstroke, similar to kinematics recorded experimentally. In hover, the model predicts that the power-optimal mode uses an extended-wing upstroke, similar to hummingbirds. In flexing their wings, pigeons are predicted to consume 20% more power than if they kept their wings full extended, implying that the typical kinematics used by pigeons in hover are suboptimal. Predictions of climbing flight suggest that the most energy-efficient way to reach a given altitude is to climb as steeply as possible, subjected to the availability of power. PMID:25392398

Performance of comorbidity, risk adjustment, and functional status measures in expenditure prediction for patients with diabetes.

PubMed

Maciejewski, Matthew L; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D

2009-01-01

To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline expenditures were constructed from administrative and survey data. Outpatient, inpatient, and total expenditure models were estimated using ordinary least squares regression. Adjusted R(2) statistics and predictive ratios were compared across measures to assess overall explanatory power and explanatory power of low- and high-cost subgroups. Administrative data-based risk adjusters performed better than the comorbidity, functional status, and diabetes-specific measures in all expenditure models. The diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) measure had the greatest predictive power overall and for the low- and high-cost subgroups, while the diabetes-specific measure had the lowest predictive power. A model with DCGs and the diabetes-specific measure modestly improved predictive power. Existing generic measures can be useful for diabetes-specific research and policy applications, but more predictive diabetes-specific measures are needed.

Worldwide multi-model intercomparison of clear-sky solar irradiance predictions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ruiz-Arias, Jose A.; Gueymard, Christian A.; Cebecauer, Tomas

2017-06-01

Accurate modeling of solar radiation in the absence of clouds is highly important because solar power production peaks during cloud-free situations. The conventional validation approach of clear-sky solar radiation models relies on the comparison between model predictions and ground observations. Therefore, this approach is limited to locations with availability of high-quality ground observations, which are scarce worldwide. As a consequence, many areas of in-terest for, e.g., solar energy development, still remain sub-validated. Here, a worldwide inter-comparison of the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) and direct normal irradiance (DNI) calculated by a number of appropriate clear-sky solar ra-diation models is proposed, without direct intervention of any weather or solar radiation ground-based observations. The model inputs are all gathered from atmospheric reanalyses covering the globe. The model predictions are compared to each other and only their relative disagreements are quantified. The largest differences between model predictions are found over central and northern Africa, the Middle East, and all over Asia. This coincides with areas of high aerosol optical depth and highly varying aerosol distribution size. Overall, the differences in modeled DNI are found about twice larger than for GHI. It is argued that the prevailing weather regimes (most importantly, aerosol conditions) over regions exhibiting substantial divergences are not adequately parameterized by all models. Further validation and scrutiny using conventional methods based on ground observations should be pursued in priority over those specific regions to correctly evaluate the performance of clear-sky models, and select those that can be recommended for solar concentrating applications in particular.

Neurocomputational mechanisms of prosocial learning and links to empathy

PubMed Central

Apps, Matthew A. J.; Valton, Vincent; Viding, Essi; Roiser, Jonathan P.

2016-01-01

Reinforcement learning theory powerfully characterizes how we learn to benefit ourselves. In this theory, prediction errors—the difference between a predicted and actual outcome of a choice—drive learning. However, we do not operate in a social vacuum. To behave prosocially we must learn the consequences of our actions for other people. Empathy, the ability to vicariously experience and understand the affect of others, is hypothesized to be a critical facilitator of prosocial behaviors, but the link between empathy and prosocial behavior is still unclear. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) participants chose between different stimuli that were probabilistically associated with rewards for themselves (self), another person (prosocial), or no one (control). Using computational modeling, we show that people can learn to obtain rewards for others but do so more slowly than when learning to obtain rewards for themselves. fMRI revealed that activity in a posterior portion of the subgenual anterior cingulate cortex/basal forebrain (sgACC) drives learning only when we are acting in a prosocial context and signals a prosocial prediction error conforming to classical principles of reinforcement learning theory. However, there is also substantial variability in the neural and behavioral efficiency of prosocial learning, which is predicted by trait empathy. More empathic people learn more quickly when benefitting others, and their sgACC response is the most selective for prosocial learning. We thus reveal a computational mechanism driving prosocial learning in humans. This framework could provide insights into atypical prosocial behavior in those with disorders of social cognition. PMID:27528669

The predictive power of family history measures of alcohol and drug problems and internalizing disorders in a college population.

PubMed

Kendler, Kenneth S; Edwards, Alexis; Myers, John; Cho, Seung Bin; Adkins, Amy; Dick, Danielle

2015-07-01

A family history (FH) of psychiatric and substance use problems is a potent risk factor for common internalizing and externalizing disorders. In a large web-based assessment of mental health in college students, we developed a brief set of screening questions for a FH of alcohol problems (AP), drug problems (DP) and depression-anxiety in four classes of relatives (father, mother, aunts/uncles/grandparents, and siblings) as reported by the student. Positive reports of a history of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety were substantially correlated within relatives. These FH measures predicted in the student, in an expected pattern, dimensions of personality and impulsivity, alcohol consumption and problems, smoking and nicotine dependence, use of illicit drugs, and symptoms of depression and anxiety. Using the mean score from the four classes of relatives was more predictive than using a familial/sporadic dichotomy. Interactions were seen between the FH of AP, DP, and depression-anxiety and peer deviance in predicting symptoms of alcohol and tobacco dependence. As the students aged, the FH of AP became a stronger predictor of alcohol problems. While we cannot directly assess the validity of these FH reports, the pattern of findings suggest that our brief screening items were able to assess, with some accuracy, the FH of substance misuse and internalizing psychiatric disorders in relatives. If correct, these measures can play an important role in the creation of developmental etiologic models for substance and internalizing psychiatric disorders which constitute one of the central goals of the overall project. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Universally Sloppy Parameter Sensitivities in Systems Biology Models

PubMed Central

Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Waterfall, Joshua J; Casey, Fergal P; Brown, Kevin S; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

2007-01-01

Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a “sloppy” spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters. PMID:17922568

Universally sloppy parameter sensitivities in systems biology models.

PubMed

Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Waterfall, Joshua J; Casey, Fergal P; Brown, Kevin S; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

2007-10-01

Quantitative computational models play an increasingly important role in modern biology. Such models typically involve many free parameters, and assigning their values is often a substantial obstacle to model development. Directly measuring in vivo biochemical parameters is difficult, and collectively fitting them to other experimental data often yields large parameter uncertainties. Nevertheless, in earlier work we showed in a growth-factor-signaling model that collective fitting could yield well-constrained predictions, even when it left individual parameters very poorly constrained. We also showed that the model had a "sloppy" spectrum of parameter sensitivities, with eigenvalues roughly evenly distributed over many decades. Here we use a collection of models from the literature to test whether such sloppy spectra are common in systems biology. Strikingly, we find that every model we examine has a sloppy spectrum of sensitivities. We also test several consequences of this sloppiness for building predictive models. In particular, sloppiness suggests that collective fits to even large amounts of ideal time-series data will often leave many parameters poorly constrained. Tests over our model collection are consistent with this suggestion. This difficulty with collective fits may seem to argue for direct parameter measurements, but sloppiness also implies that such measurements must be formidably precise and complete to usefully constrain many model predictions. We confirm this implication in our growth-factor-signaling model. Our results suggest that sloppy sensitivity spectra are universal in systems biology models. The prevalence of sloppiness highlights the power of collective fits and suggests that modelers should focus on predictions rather than on parameters.

Defying geometric similarity: Shape centralization in male UK offshore workers.

PubMed

Stewart, Arthur D; Ledingham, Robert J; Furnace, Graham; Williams, Hector; Nevill, Alan M

2017-05-06

Applying geometric similarity predictions of body dimensions to specific occupational groups has the potential to reveal useful ergonomic and health implications. This study assessed a representative sample of the male UK offshore workforce, and examined how body dimensions from sites typifying musculoskeletal development or fat accumulation, differed from predicted values. A cross sectional sample was obtained across seven weight categories using quota sampling, to match the wider workforce. In total, 588 UK offshore workers, 84 from each of seven weight categories, were measured for stature, mass and underwent 3D body scans which yielded 22 dimensional measurements. Each measurement was modeled using a body-mass power law (adjusting for age), to derive its exponent, which was compared against that predicted from geometric similarity. Mass scaled to stature 1.73 (CI: 1.44-2.02). Arm and leg volume increased by mass 0.8 , and torso volume increased by mass 1.1 in contrast to mass 1.0 predicted by geometric similarity. Neck girth increased by mass 0.33 as expected, while torso girth and depth dimensions increased by mass 0.53-0.72 , all substantially greater than assumed by geometric similarity. After controlling for age, offshore workers experience spectacular "super-centralization" of body shape, with greatest gains in abdominal depth and girth dimensions in areas of fat accumulation, and relative dimensional loss in limbs. These findings are consistent with the antecedents of sarcopenic obesity, and should be flagged as a health concern for this workforce, and for future targeted research and lifestyle interventions. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Prediction of light aircraft interior sound pressure level using the room equation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Atwal, M.; Bernhard, R.

1984-01-01

The room equation is investigated for predicting interior sound level. The method makes use of an acoustic power balance, by equating net power flow into the cabin volume to power dissipated within the cabin using the room equation. The sound power level transmitted through the panels was calculated by multiplying the measured space averaged transmitted intensity for each panel by its surface area. The sound pressure level was obtained by summing the mean square sound pressures radiated from each panel. The data obtained supported the room equation model in predicting the cabin interior sound pressure level.

Multi-Temporal Decomposed Wind and Load Power Models for Electric Energy Systems

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Abdel-Karim, Noha

This thesis is motivated by the recognition that sources of uncertainties in electric power systems are multifold and may have potentially far-reaching effects. In the past, only system load forecast was considered to be the main challenge. More recently, however, the uncertain price of electricity and hard-to-predict power produced by renewable resources, such as wind and solar, are making the operating and planning environment much more challenging. The near-real-time power imbalances are compensated by means of frequency regulation and generally require fast-responding costly resources. Because of this, a more accurate forecast and look-ahead scheduling would result in a reduced need for expensive power balancing. Similarly, long-term planning and seasonal maintenance need to take into account long-term demand forecast as well as how the short-term generation scheduling is done. The better the demand forecast, the more efficient planning will be as well. Moreover, computer algorithms for scheduling and planning are essential in helping the system operators decide what to schedule and planners what to build. This is needed given the overall complexity created by different abilities to adjust the power output of generation technologies, demand uncertainties and by the network delivery constraints. Given the growing presence of major uncertainties, it is likely that the main control applications will use more probabilistic approaches. Today's predominantly deterministic methods will be replaced by methods which account for key uncertainties as decisions are made. It is well-understood that although demand and wind power cannot be predicted at very high accuracy, taking into consideration predictions and scheduling in a look-ahead way over several time horizons generally results in more efficient and reliable utilization, than when decisions are made assuming deterministic, often worst-case scenarios. This change is in approach is going to ultimately require new electricity market rules capable of providing the right incentives to manage uncertainties and of differentiating various technologies according to the rate at which they can respond to ever changing conditions. Given the overall need for modeling uncertainties in electric energy systems, we consider in this thesis the problem of multi-temporal modeling of wind and demand power, in particular. Historic data is used to derive prediction models for several future time horizons. Short-term prediction models derived can be used for look-ahead economic dispatch and unit commitment, while the long-term annual predictive models can be used for investment planning. As expected, the accuracy of such predictive models depends on the time horizons over which the predictions are made, as well as on the nature of uncertain signals. It is shown that predictive models obtained using the same general modeling approaches result in different accuracy for wind than for demand power. In what follows, we introduce several models which have qualitatively different patterns, ranging from hourly to annual. We first transform historic time-stamped data into the Fourier Transform (Fr) representation. The frequency domain data representation is used to decompose the wind and load power signals and to derive predictive models relevant for short-term and long-term predictions using extracted spectral techniques. The short-term results are interpreted next as a Linear Prediction Coding Model (LPC) and its accuracy is analyzed. Next, a new Markov-Based Sensitivity Model (MBSM) for short term prediction has been proposed and the dispatched costs of uncertainties for different predictive models with comparisons have been developed. Moreover, the Discrete Markov Process (DMP) representation is applied to help assess probabilities of most likely short-, medium- and long-term states and the related multi-temporal risks. In addition, this thesis discusses operational impacts of wind power integration in different scenario levels by performing more than 9,000 AC Optimal Power Flow runs. The effects of both wind and load variations on system constraints and costs are presented. The limitations of DC Optimal Power Flow (DCOPF) vs. ACOPF are emphasized by means of system convergence problems due to the effect of wind power on changing line flows and net power injections. By studying the effect of having wind power on line flows, we found that the divergence problem applies in areas with high wind and hydro generation capacity share (cheap generations). (Abstract shortened by UMI.).

18 CFR 401.8 - Public projects under Article 11 of the Compact.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-04-01

... 18 Conservation of Power and Water Resources 2 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Public projects under Article 11 of the Compact. 401.8 Section 401.8 Conservation of Power and Water Resources DELAWARE RIVER... amended or revised pursuant to the Compact and this part. Any project which is changed substantially from...

Development of a biomechanical energy harvester.

PubMed

Li, Qingguo; Naing, Veronica; Donelan, J Maxwell

2009-06-23

Biomechanical energy harvesting-generating electricity from people during daily activities-is a promising alternative to batteries for powering increasingly sophisticated portable devices. We recently developed a wearable knee-mounted energy harvesting device that generated electricity during human walking. In this methods-focused paper, we explain the physiological principles that guided our design process and present a detailed description of our device design with an emphasis on new analyses. Effectively harvesting energy from walking requires a small lightweight device that efficiently converts intermittent, bi-directional, low speed and high torque mechanical power to electricity, and selectively engages power generation to assist muscles in performing negative mechanical work. To achieve this, our device used a one-way clutch to transmit only knee extension motions, a spur gear transmission to amplify the angular speed, a brushless DC rotary magnetic generator to convert the mechanical power into electrical power, a control system to determine when to open and close the power generation circuit based on measurements of knee angle, and a customized orthopaedic knee brace to distribute the device reaction torque over a large leg surface area. The device selectively engaged power generation towards the end of swing extension, assisting knee flexor muscles by producing substantial flexion torque (6.4 Nm), and efficiently converted the input mechanical power into electricity (54.6%). Consequently, six subjects walking at 1.5 m/s generated 4.8 +/- 0.8 W of electrical power with only a 5.0 +/- 21 W increase in metabolic cost. Biomechanical energy harvesting is capable of generating substantial amounts of electrical power from walking with little additional user effort making future versions of this technology particularly promising for charging portable medical devices.

Development of a biomechanical energy harvester

PubMed Central

Li, Qingguo; Naing, Veronica; Donelan, J Maxwell

2009-01-01

Background Biomechanical energy harvesting–generating electricity from people during daily activities–is a promising alternative to batteries for powering increasingly sophisticated portable devices. We recently developed a wearable knee-mounted energy harvesting device that generated electricity during human walking. In this methods-focused paper, we explain the physiological principles that guided our design process and present a detailed description of our device design with an emphasis on new analyses. Methods Effectively harvesting energy from walking requires a small lightweight device that efficiently converts intermittent, bi-directional, low speed and high torque mechanical power to electricity, and selectively engages power generation to assist muscles in performing negative mechanical work. To achieve this, our device used a one-way clutch to transmit only knee extension motions, a spur gear transmission to amplify the angular speed, a brushless DC rotary magnetic generator to convert the mechanical power into electrical power, a control system to determine when to open and close the power generation circuit based on measurements of knee angle, and a customized orthopaedic knee brace to distribute the device reaction torque over a large leg surface area. Results The device selectively engaged power generation towards the end of swing extension, assisting knee flexor muscles by producing substantial flexion torque (6.4 Nm), and efficiently converted the input mechanical power into electricity (54.6%). Consequently, six subjects walking at 1.5 m/s generated 4.8 ± 0.8 W of electrical power with only a 5.0 ± 21 W increase in metabolic cost. Conclusion Biomechanical energy harvesting is capable of generating substantial amounts of electrical power from walking with little additional user effort making future versions of this technology particularly promising for charging portable medical devices. PMID:19549313

The effects of load on system and lower-body joint kinetics during jump squats.

PubMed

Moir, Gavin L; Gollie, Jared M; Davis, Shala E; Guers, John J; Witmer, Chad A

2012-11-01

To investigate the effects of different loads on system and lower-body kinetics during jump squats, 12 resistance-trained men performed jumps under different loading conditions: 0%, 12%, 27%, 42%, 56%, 71%, and 85% of 1-repetition maximum (1-RM). System power output was calculated as the product of the vertical component of the ground reaction force and the vertical velocity of the bar during its ascent. Joint power output was calculated during bar ascent for the hip, knee, and ankle joints, and was also summed across the joints. System power output and joint power at knee and ankle joints were maximized at 0% 1-RM (p < 0.001) and followed the linear trends (p < 0.001) caused by power output decreasing as the load increased. Power output at the hip was maximized at 42% 1-RM (p = 0.016) and followed a quadratic trend (p = 0.030). Summed joint power could be predicted from system power (p < 0.05), while system power could predict power at the knee and ankle joints under some of the loading conditions. Power at the hip could not be predicted from system power. System power during loaded jumps reflects the power at the knee and ankle, while power at the hip does not correspond to system power.

Irradiation performance of U-Mo monolithic fuel

DOE PAGES

Meyer, M. K.; Gan, J.; Jue, J. F.; ...

2014-04-01

High-performance research reactors require fuel that operates at high specific power to high fission density, but at relatively low temperatures. Research reactor fuels are designed for efficient heat rejection, and are composed of assemblies of thin-plates clad in aluminum alloy. The development of low-enriched fuels to replace high-enriched fuels for these reactors requires a substantially increased uranium density in the fuel to offset the decrease in enrichment. Very few fuel phases have been identified that have the required combination of very-high uranium density and stable fuel behavior at high burnup. U-Mo alloys represent the best known tradeoff in these properties.more » Testing of aluminum matrix U-Mo aluminum matrix dispersion fuel revealed a pattern of breakaway swelling behavior at intermediate burnup, related to the formation of a molybdenum stabilized high aluminum intermetallic phase that forms during irradiation. In the case of monolithic fuel, this issue was addressed by eliminating, as much as possible, the interfacial area between U-Mo and aluminum. Based on scoping irradiation test data, a fuel plate system composed of solid U-10Mo fuel meat, a zirconium diffusion barrier, and Al6061 cladding was selected for development. Developmental testing of this fuel system indicates that it meets core criteria for fuel qualification, including stable and predictable swelling behavior, mechanical integrity to high burnup, and geometric stability. In addition, the fuel exhibits robust behavior during power-cooling mismatch events under irradiation at high power.« less

IRRADIATION PERFORMANCE OF U-Mo MONOLITHIC FUEL

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

M.K. Meyer; J. Gan; J.-F. Jue

2014-04-01

High-performance research reactors require fuel that operates at high specific power to high fission density, but at relatively low temperatures. Research reactor fuels are designed for efficient heat rejection, and are composed of assemblies of thin-plates clad in aluminum alloy. The development of low-enriched fuels to replace high-enriched fuels for these reactors requires a substantially increased uranium density in the fuel to offset the decrease in enrichment. Very few fuel phases have been identified that have the required combination of very-high uranium density and stable fuel behavior at high burnup. UMo alloys represent the best known tradeoff in these properties.more » Testing of aluminum matrix U-Mo aluminum matrix dispersion fuel revealed a pattern of breakaway swelling behavior at intermediate burnup, related to the formation of a molybdenum stabilized high aluminum intermetallic phase that forms during irradiation. In the case of monolithic fuel, this issue was addressed by eliminating, as much as possible, the interfacial area between U-Mo and aluminum. Based on scoping irradiation test data, a fuel plate system composed of solid U-10Mo fuel meat, a zirconium diffusion barrier, and Al6061 cladding was selected for development. Developmental testing of this fuel system indicates that it meets core criteria for fuel qualification, including stable and predictable swelling behavior, mechanical integrity to high burnup, and geometric stability. In addition, the fuel exhibits robust behavior during power-cooling mismatch events under irradiation at high power.« less

Effect of inert cover gas on performance of radioisotope Stirling space power system

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carpenter, R.; Kumar, V.; Or, C.; Schock, A.

2001-02-01

This paper describes an updated Orbital design of a radioisotope Stirling power system and its predicted performance at the beginning and end of a six-year mission to the Jovian moon Europa. The design is based on General Purpose Heat Source (GPHS) modules identical to those previously developed and safety-qualified by the Department of Energy (DOE) which were successfully launched on missions to Jupiter and Saturn by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL). In each generator, the heat produced by the decay of the Pu-238 isotope is converted to electric power by two free-piston Stirling engines and linear alternators developed by Stirling Technology Company (STC), and their rejected waste heat is transported to radiators by heat pipes. The principal difference between the proposed system design and previous Orbital designs (Or et al., 2000) is the thermal insulation between the heat source and the generator's housing. Previous designs had employed multifoil insulation, whereas the design described here employs Min-K-1800 thermal insulation. Such insulation had been successfully used by Teledyne and GE in earlier RTGs (Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators). Although Min-K is a much poorer insulator than multifoil in vacuum and requires a substantially greater thickness for equivalent performance, it offers compensating advantages. Specifically it makes it possible to adjust the generator's BOM temperatures by filling its interior volume with inert cover gas. This makes it possible to meet the generator's BOM and EOM performance goals without exceeding its allowable temperature at the beginning of the mission. .

Evaluating Google Flu Trends in Latin America: Important Lessons for the Next Phase of Digital Disease Detection.

PubMed

Pollett, Simon; Boscardin, W John; Azziz-Baumgartner, Eduardo; Tinoco, Yeny O; Soto, Giselle; Romero, Candice; Kok, Jen; Biggerstaff, Matthew; Viboud, Cecile; Rutherford, George W

2017-01-01

 Latin America has a substantial burden of influenza and rising Internet access and could benefit from real-time influenza epidemic prediction web tools such as Google Flu Trends (GFT) to assist in risk communication and resource allocation during epidemics. However, there has never been a published assessment of GFT's accuracy in most Latin American countries or in any low- to middle-income country. Our aim was to evaluate GFT in Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay.  Weekly influenza-test positive proportions for the eight countries were obtained from FluNet for the period January 2011-December 2014. Concurrent weekly Google-predicted influenza activity in the same countries was abstracted from GFT. Pearson correlation coefficients between observed and Google-predicted influenza activity trends were determined for each country. Permutation tests were used to examine background seasonal correlation between FluNet and GFT by country.  There were frequent GFT prediction errors, with correlation ranging from r = -0.53 to 0.91. GFT-predicted influenza activity best correlated with FluNet data in Mexico follow by Uruguay, Argentina, Chile, Brazil, Peru, Bolivia and Paraguay. Correlation was generally highest in the more temperate countries with more regular influenza seasonality and lowest in tropical regions. A substantial amount of autocorrelation was noted, suggestive that GFT is not fully specific for influenza virus activity.  We note substantial inaccuracies with GFT-predicted influenza activity compared with FluNet throughout Latin America, particularly among tropical countries with irregular influenza seasonality. Our findings offer valuable lessons for future Internet-based biosurveillance tools. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail journals.permissions@oup.com.

A fuzzy set preference model for market share analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Turksen, I. B.; Willson, Ian A.

1992-01-01

Consumer preference models are widely used in new product design, marketing management, pricing, and market segmentation. The success of new products depends on accurate market share prediction and design decisions based on consumer preferences. The vague linguistic nature of consumer preferences and product attributes, combined with the substantial differences between individuals, creates a formidable challenge to marketing models. The most widely used methodology is conjoint analysis. Conjoint models, as currently implemented, represent linguistic preferences as ratio or interval-scaled numbers, use only numeric product attributes, and require aggregation of individuals for estimation purposes. It is not surprising that these models are costly to implement, are inflexible, and have a predictive validity that is not substantially better than chance. This affects the accuracy of market share estimates. A fuzzy set preference model can easily represent linguistic variables either in consumer preferences or product attributes with minimal measurement requirements (ordinal scales), while still estimating overall preferences suitable for market share prediction. This approach results in flexible individual-level conjoint models which can provide more accurate market share estimates from a smaller number of more meaningful consumer ratings. Fuzzy sets can be incorporated within existing preference model structures, such as a linear combination, using the techniques developed for conjoint analysis and market share estimation. The purpose of this article is to develop and fully test a fuzzy set preference model which can represent linguistic variables in individual-level models implemented in parallel with existing conjoint models. The potential improvements in market share prediction and predictive validity can substantially improve management decisions about what to make (product design), for whom to make it (market segmentation), and how much to make (market share prediction).

Fatigue and Depression in Sick-Listed Chronic Low Back Pain Patients

PubMed Central

Snekkevik, Hildegun; Eriksen, Hege R; Tangen, Tone; Chalder, Trudie; Reme, Silje E

2014-01-01

Objective The relationship between fatigue and pain has been investigated previously, but little is known about the prevalence of substantial fatigue in patients sick-listed for chronic low back pain (CLBP) and about how fatigue is associated with depression, pain, and long-term disability. The aims of the study were to examine the prevalence of substantial fatigue; associations between fatigue, depression, and pain; and whether fatigue predicted long-term disability. Methods Five hundred sixty-nine patients participating in a randomized controlled trial and sick-listed 2–10 months for LBP were included in the study. Cross-sectional analyses were conducted to investigate the prevalence and independent associations between fatigue, depression, pain, and disability, while longitudinal analyses were done to investigate the association between fatigue and long-term disability. Results The prevalence of substantial fatigue was 69.7%. Women reported significantly more fatigue than men (t = −3.6, df = 551; P < .001). Those with substantial fatigue had higher pain intensity (t = −3.3, df = 534; P = 0.01), more depressive symptoms (t = −10.9, df = 454; P < 0.001), and more disability (t = −7.6, df = 539; P < 0.001) than those without substantial fatigue. Musculoskeletal pain and depression were independently associated with substantial fatigue. In the longitudinal analyses, fatigue predicted long-term disability at 3, 6, and 12 months' follow-up. After pain and depression were controlled for, fatigue remained a significant predictor of disability at 6 months' follow-up. Conclusions The vast majority of the sick-listed CLBP patients reported substantial fatigue. Those with substantial fatigue had more pain and depressive symptoms and a significant risk of reporting more disability at 3, 6, and 12 months. Substantial fatigue is disabling in itself but also involves a risk of developing chronic fatigue syndrome and long-term disability. PMID:24716799

Determinants of mobile phone output power in a multinational study: implications for exposure assessment.

PubMed

Vrijheid, M; Mann, S; Vecchia, P; Wiart, J; Taki, M; Ardoino, L; Armstrong, B K; Auvinen, A; Bédard, D; Berg-Beckhoff, G; Brown, J; Chetrit, A; Collatz-Christensen, H; Combalot, E; Cook, A; Deltour, I; Feychting, M; Giles, G G; Hepworth, S J; Hours, M; Iavarone, I; Johansen, C; Krewski, D; Kurttio, P; Lagorio, S; Lönn, S; McBride, M; Montestrucq, L; Parslow, R C; Sadetzki, S; Schüz, J; Tynes, T; Woodward, A; Cardis, E

2009-10-01

The output power of a mobile phone is directly related to its radiofrequency (RF) electromagnetic field strength, and may theoretically vary substantially in different networks and phone use circumstances due to power control technologies. To improve indices of RF exposure for epidemiological studies, we assessed determinants of mobile phone output power in a multinational study. More than 500 volunteers in 12 countries used Global System for Mobile communications software-modified phones (GSM SMPs) for approximately 1 month each. The SMPs recorded date, time, and duration of each call, and the frequency band and output power at fixed sampling intervals throughout each call. Questionnaires provided information on the typical circumstances of an individual's phone use. Linear regression models were used to analyse the influence of possible explanatory variables on the average output power and the percentage call time at maximum power for each call. Measurements of over 60,000 phone calls showed that the average output power was approximately 50% of the maximum, and that output power varied by a factor of up to 2 to 3 between study centres and network operators. Maximum power was used during a considerable proportion of call time (39% on average). Output power decreased with increasing call duration, but showed little variation in relation to reported frequency of use while in a moving vehicle or inside buildings. Higher output powers for rural compared with urban use of the SMP were observed principally in Sweden where the study covered very sparsely populated areas. Average power levels are substantially higher than the minimum levels theoretically achievable in GSM networks. Exposure indices could be improved by accounting for average power levels of different telecommunications systems. There appears to be little value in gathering information on circumstances of phone use other than use in very sparsely populated regions.

Tides and turbines

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Charlier, R. H.

1980-12-01

Tidal power plants are examined with attention to potential sites worldwide and to existing projects in France, the Soviet Union, and China. It is noted that maximum power cannot always be made available during peak demand periods because of the continuous variation of the daily tidal cycle throughout the year. However, this can be alleviated if a two-pool design or pumping are used. The economic impact of tidal power has been favorable, with the use of cellular units reducing construction costs substantially.

Regional Differences in Brain Volume Predict the Acquisition of Skill in a Complex Real-Time Strategy Videogame

PubMed Central

Basak, Chandramallika; Voss, Michelle W.; Erickson, Kirk I.; Boot, Walter R.; Kramer, Arthur F.

2015-01-01

Previous studies have found that differences in brain volume among older adults predict performance in laboratory tasks of executive control, memory, and motor learning. In the present study we asked whether regional differences in brain volume as assessed by the application of a voxel-based morphometry technique on high resolution MRI would also be useful in predicting the acquisition of skill in complex tasks, such as strategy-based video games. Twenty older adults were trained for over 20 hours to play Rise of Nations, a complex real-time strategy game. These adults showed substantial improvements over the training period in game performance. MRI scans obtained prior to training revealed that the volume of a number of brain regions, which have been previously associated with subsets of the trained skills, predicted a substantial amount of variance in learning on the complex game. Thus, regional differences in brain volume can predict learning in complex tasks that entail the use of a variety of perceptual, cognitive and motor processes. PMID:21546146

Regional differences in brain volume predict the acquisition of skill in a complex real-time strategy videogame.

PubMed

Basak, Chandramallika; Voss, Michelle W; Erickson, Kirk I; Boot, Walter R; Kramer, Arthur F

2011-08-01

Previous studies have found that differences in brain volume among older adults predict performance in laboratory tasks of executive control, memory, and motor learning. In the present study we asked whether regional differences in brain volume as assessed by the application of a voxel-based morphometry technique on high resolution MRI would also be useful in predicting the acquisition of skill in complex tasks, such as strategy-based video games. Twenty older adults were trained for over 20 h to play Rise of Nations, a complex real-time strategy game. These adults showed substantial improvements over the training period in game performance. MRI scans obtained prior to training revealed that the volume of a number of brain regions, which have been previously associated with subsets of the trained skills, predicted a substantial amount of variance in learning on the complex game. Thus, regional differences in brain volume can predict learning in complex tasks that entail the use of a variety of perceptual, cognitive and motor processes. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A comparison of naïve and sophisticated subject behavior with game theoretic predictions

PubMed Central

McCabe, Kevin A.; Smith, Vernon L.

2000-01-01

We use an extensive form two-person game as the basis for two experiments designed to compare the behavior of two groups of subjects with each other and with the subgame perfect theoretical prediction in an anonymous interaction protocol. The two subject groups are undergraduates and advanced graduate students, the latter having studied economics and game theory. There is no difference in their choice behavior, and both groups depart substantially from game theoretic predictions. We also compare a subsample of the same graduate students with a typical undergraduate sample in an asset trading environment in which inexperienced undergraduates invariably produce substantial departures from the rational expectations prediction. In this way, we examine how robust are the results across two distinct anonymous interactive environments. In the constant sum trading game, the graduate students closely track the predictions of rational theory. Our interpretation is that the graduate student subjects' departure from subgame perfection to achieve cooperative outcomes in the two-person bargaining game is a consequence of a deliberate strategy and is not the result of error or inadequate learning. PMID:10725349

Replacement of SSE (Release 6) with NASA's Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project GIS-enabled Web Data Portal:

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-03-15

... effort has been developed under the Prediction Of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) Project funded largely by NASA Earth Applied Sciences ... to NASA's satellite and modeling analysis for Renewable Energy, Sustainable Buildings and Agroclimatology applications.  A new POWER ...

POWER/SSE

Atmospheric Science Data Center

2018-06-15

... The Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current SSE ... continue to be focussed on the solar and wind Renewable Energy industry. New data sets will target Sustainable Buildings ... The Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resource (POWER) project was initiated to improve upon the current SSE ...

A Comparison of Center/TRACON Automation System and Airline Time of Arrival Predictions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Heere, Karen R.; Zelenka, Richard E.

2000-01-01

Benefits from information sharing between an air traffic service provider and a major air carrier are evaluated. Aircraft arrival time schedules generated by the NASA/FAA Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) were provided to the American Airlines System Operations Control Center in Fort Worth, Texas, during a field trial of a specialized CTAS display. A statistical analysis indicates that the CTAS schedules, based on aircraft trajectories predicted from real-time radar and weather data, are substantially more accurate than the traditional airline arrival time estimates, constructed from flight plans and en route crew updates. The improvement offered by CTAS is especially advantageous during periods of heavy traffic and substantial terminal area delay, allowing the airline to avoid large predictive errors with serious impact on the efficiency and profitability of flight operations.

On-Line Thermal Barrier Coating Monitoring for Real-Time Failure Protection and Life Maximization

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Dennis H. LeMieux

2004-10-01

Under the sponsorship of the U. S. Department of Energy's National Energy Laboratory, Siemens Westinghouse Power Corporation proposes a four year program titled, ''On-Line Thermal Barrier Coating (TBC) Monitor for Real-Time Failure Protection and Life Maximization'', to develop, build and install the first generation of an on-line TBC monitoring system for use on land -based advanced gas turbines (AGT). Federal deregulation in electric power generation has accelerated power plant owner's demand for improved reliability availability maintainability (RAM) of the land-based advanced gas turbines. As a result, firing temperatures have been increased substantially in the advanced turbine engines, and the TBCsmore » have been developed for maximum protection and life of all critical engine components operating at these higher temperatures. Losing TBC protection can therefore accelerate the degradation of substrate components materials and eventually lead to a premature failure of critical component and costly unscheduled power outages. This program seeks to substantially improve the operating life of high cost gas turbine components using TBC; thereby, lowering the cost of maintenance leading to lower cost of electricity. Siemens Westinghouse Power Corporation has teamed with Indigo Systems; a supplier of state-of-the-art infrared camera systems, and Wayne State University, a leading research organization.« less

Water demand for electricity in deep decarbonisation scenarios: a multi-model assessment

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mouratiadou, I.; Bevione, M.; Bijl, D. L.

This study assesses the effects of deep electricity decarbonisation and shifts in the choice of power plant cooling technologies on global electricity water demand, using a suite of five integrated assessment models. We find that electricity sector decarbonisation results in co-benefits for water resources primarily due to the phase-out of water-intensive coal-based thermoelectric power generation, although these co-benefits vary substantially across decarbonisation scenarios. Wind and solar photovoltaic power represent a win-win option for both climate and water resources, but further expansion of nuclear or fossil- and biomass-fuelled power plants with carbon capture and storage may result in increased pressures onmore » the water environment. Further to these results, the paper provides insights on the most crucial factors of uncertainty with regards to future estimates of water demand. These estimates varied substantially across models in scenarios where the effects of decarbonisation on the electricity mix were less clear-cut. Future thermal and water efficiency improvements of power generation technologies and demand-side energy efficiency improvements were also identified to be important factors of uncertainty. We conclude that in order to ensure positive effects of decarbonisation on water resources, climate policy should be combined with technology-specific energy and/or water policies.« less

Parallel elastic elements improve energy efficiency on the STEPPR bipedal walking robot

DOE PAGES

Mazumdar, Anirban; Spencer, Steven J.; Hobart, Clinton; ...

2016-11-23

This study describes how parallel elastic elements can be used to reduce energy consumption in the electric motor driven, fully-actuated, STEPPR bipedal walking robot without compromising or significantly limiting locomotive behaviors. A physically motivated approach is used to illustrate how selectively-engaging springs for hip adduction and ankle flexion predict benefits for three different flat ground walking gaits: human walking, human-like robot walking and crouched robot walking. Based on locomotion data, springs are designed and substantial reductions in power consumption are demonstrated using a bench dynamometer. These lessons are then applied to STEPPR (Sandia Transmission-Efficient Prototype Promoting Research), a fully actuatedmore » bipedal robot designed to explore the impact of tailored joint mechanisms on walking efficiency. Featuring high-torque brushless DC motors, efficient low-ratio transmissions, and high fidelity torque control, STEPPR provides the ability to incorporate novel joint-level mechanisms without dramatically altering high level control. Unique parallel elastic designs are incorporated into STEPPR, and walking data shows that hip adduction and ankle flexion springs significantly reduce the required actuator energy at those joints for several gaits. These results suggest that parallel joint springs offer a promising means of supporting quasi-static joint torques due to body mass during walking, relieving motors of the need to support these torques and substantially improving locomotive energy efficiency.« less

Parallel elastic elements improve energy efficiency on the STEPPR bipedal walking robot

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Mazumdar, Anirban; Spencer, Steven J.; Hobart, Clinton

This study describes how parallel elastic elements can be used to reduce energy consumption in the electric motor driven, fully-actuated, STEPPR bipedal walking robot without compromising or significantly limiting locomotive behaviors. A physically motivated approach is used to illustrate how selectively-engaging springs for hip adduction and ankle flexion predict benefits for three different flat ground walking gaits: human walking, human-like robot walking and crouched robot walking. Based on locomotion data, springs are designed and substantial reductions in power consumption are demonstrated using a bench dynamometer. These lessons are then applied to STEPPR (Sandia Transmission-Efficient Prototype Promoting Research), a fully actuatedmore » bipedal robot designed to explore the impact of tailored joint mechanisms on walking efficiency. Featuring high-torque brushless DC motors, efficient low-ratio transmissions, and high fidelity torque control, STEPPR provides the ability to incorporate novel joint-level mechanisms without dramatically altering high level control. Unique parallel elastic designs are incorporated into STEPPR, and walking data shows that hip adduction and ankle flexion springs significantly reduce the required actuator energy at those joints for several gaits. These results suggest that parallel joint springs offer a promising means of supporting quasi-static joint torques due to body mass during walking, relieving motors of the need to support these torques and substantially improving locomotive energy efficiency.« less

Venus Surface Power and Cooling System Design

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Landis, Geoffrey A.; Mellott, Kenneth D.

2004-01-01

A radioisotope power and cooling system is designed to provide electrical power for the a probe operating on the surface of Venus. Most foreseeable electronics devices and sensors simply cannot operate at the 450 C ambient surface temperature of Venus. Because the mission duration is substantially long and the use of thermal mass to maintain an operable temperature range is likely impractical, some type of active refrigeration may be required to keep certain components at a temperature below ambient. The fundamental cooling requirements are comprised of the cold sink temperature, the hot sink temperature, and the amount of heat to be removed. In this instance, it is anticipated that electronics would have a nominal operating temperature of 300 C. Due to the highly thermal convective nature of the high-density atmosphere, the hot sink temperature was assumed to be 50 C, which provided a 500 C temperature of the cooler's heat rejecter to the ambient atmosphere. The majority of the heat load on the cooler is from the high temperature ambient surface environment on Venus. Assuming 5 cm radial thickness of ceramic blanket insulation, the ambient heat load was estimated at approximately 77 watts. With an estimated quantity of 10 watts of heat generation from electronics and sensors, and to accommodate some level of uncertainty, the total heat load requirement was rounded up to an even 100 watts. For the radioisotope Stirling power converter configuration designed, the Sage model predicts a thermodynamic power output capacity of 478.1 watts, which slightly exceeds the required 469.1 watts. The hot sink temperature is 1200 C, and the cold sink temperature is 500 C. The required heat input is 1740 watts. This gives a thermodynamic efficiency of 27.48 %. The maximum theoretically obtainable efficiency is 47.52 %. It is estimated that the mechanical efficiency of the power converter design is on the order of 85 %, based on experimental measurements taken from 500 watt power class, laboratory-tested Stirling engines at GRC. The overall efficiency is calculated to be 23.36 %. The mass of the power converter is estimated at approximately 21.6 kg.

Apparatus and method for extracting power from energetic ions produced in nuclear fusion

DOEpatents

Fisch, N.J.; Rax, J.M.

1994-12-20

An apparatus and method of extracting power from energetic ions produced by nuclear fusion in a toroidal plasma to enhance respectively the toroidal plasma current and fusion reactivity. By injecting waves of predetermined frequency and phase traveling substantially in a selected poloidal direction within the plasma, the energetic ions become diffused in energy and space such that the energetic ions lose energy and amplify the waves. The amplified waves are further adapted to travel substantially in a selected toroidal direction to increase preferentially the energy of electrons traveling in one toroidal direction which, in turn, enhances or generates a toroidal plasma current. In an further adaptation, the amplified waves can be made to preferentially increase the energy of fuel ions within the plasma to enhance the fusion reactivity of the fuel ions. The described direct, or in situ, conversion of the energetic ion energy provides an efficient and economical means of delivering power to a fusion reactor. 4 figures.

Blood absorption during 970 and 1470 nm laser radiation in vitro.

PubMed

Shaydakov, E; Ilyukhin, E; Rosukhovskiy, D

2015-10-01

Soon after introduction of water lasers in medical practice for EVLA, less power and energy line density have been used. However, there are no experimental grounds for different energy modes and there is no clear evidence for a difference in the effect of the two wavelengths dealt with in this study. The goal of this study was to evaluate the temperature profile of various laser action modes with testing devices. Three experimental testing devices consisted of cylinders filled with whole donor blood and a set of temperature sensors installed in different positions. We have determined the range of temperatures around the fiber tip of 970 and 1470 nm lasers. The average temperature of 970 nm laser at 1 mm distance along the axis from the fiber tip substantially differed from that of 1470 nm laser, power being equal. Statistically substantial differences were found in endovenous laser ablation simulation in vitro for the 970 nm and 1470 nm laser radiation. Similar temperatures can be reached with 970 nm lasers if power is increased.

Re-examination of the relationship between marine virus and microbial cell abundances.

PubMed

Wigington, Charles H; Sonderegger, Derek; Brussaard, Corina P D; Buchan, Alison; Finke, Jan F; Fuhrman, Jed A; Lennon, Jay T; Middelboe, Mathias; Suttle, Curtis A; Stock, Charles; Wilson, William H; Wommack, K Eric; Wilhelm, Steven W; Weitz, Joshua S

2016-01-25

Marine viruses are critical drivers of ocean biogeochemistry, and their abundances vary spatiotemporally in the global oceans, with upper estimates exceeding 10(8) per ml. Over many years, a consensus has emerged that virus abundances are typically tenfold higher than microbial cell abundances. However, the true explanatory power of a linear relationship and its robustness across diverse ocean environments is unclear. Here, we compile 5,671 microbial cell and virus abundance estimates from 25 distinct marine surveys and find substantial variation in the virus-to-microbial cell ratio, in which a 10:1 model has either limited or no explanatory power. Instead, virus abundances are better described as nonlinear, power-law functions of microbial cell abundances. The fitted scaling exponents are typically less than 1, implying that the virus-to-microbial cell ratio decreases with microbial cell density, rather than remaining fixed. The observed scaling also implies that viral effect sizes derived from 'representative' abundances require substantial refinement to be extrapolated to regional or global scales.

Apparatus and method for extracting power from energetic ions produced in nuclear fusion

DOEpatents

Fisch, Nathaniel J.; Rax, Jean M.

1994-01-01

An apparatus and method of extracting power from energetic ions produced by nuclear fusion in a toroidal plasma to enhance respectively the toroidal plasma current and fusion reactivity. By injecting waves of predetermined frequency and phase traveling substantially in a selected poloidal direction within the plasma, the energetic ions become diffused in energy and space such that the energetic ions lose energy and amplify the waves. The amplified waves are further adapted to travel substantially in a selected toroidal direction to increase preferentially the energy of electrons traveling in one toroidal direction which, in turn, enhances or generates a toroidal plasma current. In an further adaptation, the amplified waves can be made to preferentially increase the energy of fuel ions within the plasma to enhance the fusion reactivity of the fuel ions. The described direct, or in situ, conversion of the energetic ion energy provides an efficient and economical means of delivering power to a fusion reactor.

Low-current traveling wave tube for use in the microwave power module

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Palmer, Raymond W.; Ramins, Peter; Force, Dale A.; Dayton, James A.; Ebihara, Ben T.; Gruber, Robert P.

1993-01-01

The results of a traveling-wave-tube/multistage depressed-collector (TWT-MDC) design study in support of the Advanced Research Projects Agency/Department of Defense (ARPA/DOD) Microwave Power Module (MPM) Program are described. The study stressed the possible application of dynamic and other tapers to the RF output circuit of the MPM traveling wave tube as a means of increasing the RF and overall efficiencies and reducing the required beam current (perveance). The results indicate that a highly efficient, modified dynamic velocity taper (DVT) circuit can be designed for the broadband MPM application. The combination of reduced cathode current (lower perveance) and increased RF efficiency leads to (1) a substantially higher overall efficiency and reduction in the prime power to the MPM, and (2) substantially reduced levels of MDC and MPM heat dissipation, which simplify the cooling problems. However, the selected TWT circuit parameters need to be validated by cold test measurements on actual circuits.

Intelligent Prediction of Fan Rotation Stall in Power Plants Based on Pressure Sensor Data Measured In-Situ

PubMed Central

Xu, Xiaogang; Wang, Songling; Liu, Jinlian; Liu, Xinyu

2014-01-01

Blower and exhaust fans consume over 30% of electricity in a thermal power plant, and faults of these fans due to rotation stalls are one of the most frequent reasons for power plant outage failures. To accurately predict the occurrence of fan rotation stalls, we propose a support vector regression machine (SVRM) model that predicts the fan internal pressures during operation, leaving ample time for rotation stall detection. We train the SVRM model using experimental data samples, and perform pressure data prediction using the trained SVRM model. To prove the feasibility of using the SVRM model for rotation stall prediction, we further process the predicted pressure data via wavelet-transform-based stall detection. By comparison of the detection results from the predicted and measured pressure data, we demonstrate that the SVRM model can accurately predict the fan pressure and guarantee reliable stall detection with a time advance of up to 0.0625 s. This superior pressure data prediction capability leaves significant time for effective control and prevention of fan rotation stall faults. This model has great potential for use in intelligent fan systems with stall prevention capability, which will ensure safe operation and improve the energy efficiency of power plants. PMID:24854057

Effect of the equivalent refractive index on intraocular lens power prediction with ray tracing after myopic laser in situ keratomileusis.

PubMed

Canovas, Carmen; van der Mooren, Marrie; Rosén, Robert; Piers, Patricia A; Wang, Li; Koch, Douglas D; Artal, Pablo

2015-05-01

To determine the impact of the equivalent refractive index (ERI) on intraocular lens (IOL) power prediction for eyes with previous myopic laser in situ keratomileusis (LASIK) using custom ray tracing. AMO B.V., Groningen, the Netherlands, and the Department of Ophthalmology, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, Texas, USA. Retrospective data analysis. The ERI was calculated individually from the post-LASIK total corneal power. Two methods to account for the posterior corneal surface were tested; that is, calculation from pre-LASIK data or from post-LASIK data only. Four IOL power predictions were generated using a computer-based ray-tracing technique, including individual ERI results from both calculation methods, a mean ERI over the whole population, and the ERI for normal patients. For each patient, IOL power results calculated from the four predictions as well as those obtained with the Haigis-L were compared with the optimum IOL power calculated after cataract surgery. The study evaluated 25 patients. The mean and range of ERI values determined using post-LASIK data were similar to those determined from pre-LASIK data. Introducing individual or an average ERI in the ray-tracing IOL power calculation procedure resulted in mean IOL power errors that were not significantly different from zero. The ray-tracing procedure that includes an average ERI gave a greater percentage of eyes with an IOL power prediction error within ±0.5 diopter than the Haigis-L (84% versus 52%). For IOL power determination in post-LASIK patients, custom ray tracing including a modified ERI was an accurate procedure that exceeded the current standards for normal eyes. Copyright © 2015 ASCRS and ESCRS. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Forecasting Electric Power Generation of Photovoltaic Power System for Energy Network

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kudo, Mitsuru; Takeuchi, Akira; Nozaki, Yousuke; Endo, Hisahito; Sumita, Jiro

Recently, there has been an increase in concern about the global environment. Interest is growing in developing an energy network by which new energy systems such as photovoltaic and fuel cells generate power locally and electric power and heat are controlled with a communications network. We developed the power generation forecast method for photovoltaic power systems in an energy network. The method makes use of weather information and regression analysis. We carried out forecasting power output of the photovoltaic power system installed in Expo 2005, Aichi Japan. As a result of comparing measurements with a prediction values, the average prediction error per day was about 26% of the measured power.

High power RF solid state power amplifier system

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sims, III, William Herbert (Inventor); Chavers, Donald Gregory (Inventor); Richeson, James J. (Inventor)

2011-01-01

A high power, high frequency, solid state power amplifier system includes a plurality of input multiple port splitters for receiving a high-frequency input and for dividing the input into a plurality of outputs and a plurality of solid state amplifier units. Each amplifier unit includes a plurality of amplifiers, and each amplifier is individually connected to one of the outputs of multiport splitters and produces a corresponding amplified output. A plurality of multiport combiners combine the amplified outputs of the amplifiers of each of the amplifier units to a combined output. Automatic level control protection circuitry protects the amplifiers and maintains a substantial constant amplifier power output.

Enhancing power cycle efficiency for a supercritical Brayton cycle power system using tunable supercritical gas mixtures

DOEpatents

Wright, Steven A.; Pickard, Paul S.; Vernon, Milton E.; Radel, Ross F.

2017-08-29

Various technologies pertaining to tuning composition of a fluid mixture in a supercritical Brayton cycle power generation system are described herein. Compounds, such as Alkanes, are selectively added or removed from an operating fluid of the supercritical Brayton cycle power generation system to cause the critical temperature of the fluid to move up or down, depending upon environmental conditions. As efficiency of the supercritical Brayton cycle power generation system is substantially optimized when heat is rejected near the critical temperature of the fluid, dynamically modifying the critical temperature of the fluid based upon sensed environmental conditions improves efficiency of such a system.

Power corrections in the N -jettiness subtraction scheme

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Boughezal, Radja; Liu, Xiaohui; Petriello, Frank

We discuss the leading-logarithmic power corrections in the N-jettiness subtraction scheme for higher-order perturbative QCD calculations. We compute the next-to-leading order power corrections for an arbitrary N-jet process, and we explicitly calculate the power correction through next-to-next-to-leading order for color-singlet production for bothmore » $$q\\bar{q}$$ and gg initiated processes. Our results are compact and simple to implement numerically. Including the leading power correction in the N-jettiness subtraction scheme substantially improves its numerical efficiency. Finally, we discuss what features of our techniques extend to processes containing final-state jets.« less

Power corrections in the N -jettiness subtraction scheme

DOE PAGES

Boughezal, Radja; Liu, Xiaohui; Petriello, Frank

2017-03-30

We discuss the leading-logarithmic power corrections in the N-jettiness subtraction scheme for higher-order perturbative QCD calculations. We compute the next-to-leading order power corrections for an arbitrary N-jet process, and we explicitly calculate the power correction through next-to-next-to-leading order for color-singlet production for bothmore » $$q\\bar{q}$$ and gg initiated processes. Our results are compact and simple to implement numerically. Including the leading power correction in the N-jettiness subtraction scheme substantially improves its numerical efficiency. Finally, we discuss what features of our techniques extend to processes containing final-state jets.« less

Using Reanalysis Data for the Prediction of Seasonal Wind Turbine Power Losses Due to Icing

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burtch, D.; Mullendore, G. L.; Delene, D. J.; Storm, B.

2013-12-01

The Northern Plains region of the United States is home to a significant amount of potential wind energy. However, in winter months capturing this potential power is severely impacted by the meteorological conditions, in the form of icing. Predicting the expected loss in power production due to icing is a valuable parameter that can be used in wind turbine operations, determination of wind turbine site locations and long-term energy estimates which are used for financing purposes. Currently, losses due to icing must be estimated when developing predictions for turbine feasibility and financing studies, while icing maps, a tool commonly used in Europe, are lacking in the United States. This study uses the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) dataset in conjunction with turbine production data to investigate various methods of predicting seasonal losses (October-March) due to icing at two wind turbine sites located 121 km apart in North Dakota. The prediction of icing losses is based on temperature and relative humidity thresholds and is accomplished using three methods. For each of the three methods, the required atmospheric variables are determined in one of two ways: using industry-specific software to correlate anemometer data in conjunction with the MERRA dataset and using only the MERRA dataset for all variables. For each season, a percentage of the total expected generated power lost due to icing is determined and compared to observed losses from the production data. An optimization is performed in order to determine the relative humidity threshold that minimizes the difference between the predicted and observed values. Eight seasons of data are used to determine an optimal relative humidity threshold, and a further three seasons of data are used to test this threshold. Preliminary results have shown that the optimized relative humidity threshold for the northern turbine is higher than the southern turbine for all methods. For the three test seasons, the optimized thresholds tend to under-predict the icing losses. However, the threshold determined using boundary layer similarity theory most closely predicts the power losses due to icing versus the other methods. For the northern turbine, the average predicted power loss over the three seasons is 4.65 % while the observed power loss is 6.22 % (average difference of 1.57 %). For the southern turbine, the average predicted power loss and observed power loss over the same time period are 4.43 % and 6.16 %, respectively (average difference of 1.73 %). The three-year average, however, does not clearly capture the variability that exists season-to-season. On examination of each of the test seasons individually, the optimized relative humidity threshold methodology performs better than fixed power loss estimates commonly used in the wind energy industry.

A 16-Channel Nonparametric Spike Detection ASIC Based on EC-PC Decomposition.

PubMed

Wu, Tong; Xu, Jian; Lian, Yong; Khalili, Azam; Rastegarnia, Amir; Guan, Cuntai; Yang, Zhi

2016-02-01

In extracellular neural recording experiments, detecting neural spikes is an important step for reliable information decoding. A successful implementation in integrated circuits can achieve substantial data volume reduction, potentially enabling a wireless operation and closed-loop system. In this paper, we report a 16-channel neural spike detection chip based on a customized spike detection method named as exponential component-polynomial component (EC-PC) algorithm. This algorithm features a reliable prediction of spikes by applying a probability threshold. The chip takes raw data as input and outputs three data streams simultaneously: field potentials, band-pass filtered neural data, and spiking probability maps. The algorithm parameters are on-chip configured automatically based on input data, which avoids manual parameter tuning. The chip has been tested with both in vivo experiments for functional verification and bench-top experiments for quantitative performance assessment. The system has a total power consumption of 1.36 mW and occupies an area of 6.71 mm (2) for 16 channels. When tested on synthesized datasets with spikes and noise segments extracted from in vivo preparations and scaled according to required precisions, the chip outperforms other detectors. A credit card sized prototype board is developed to provide power and data management through a USB port.

Roadmap for Nondestructive Evaluation of Reactor Pressure Vessel Research and Development by the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Smith, Cyrus M; Nanstad, Randy K; Clayton, Dwight A

2012-09-01

The Department of Energy s (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program is a five year effort which works to develop the fundamental scientific basis to understand, predict, and measure changes in materials and systems, structure, and components as they age in environments associated with continued long-term operations of existing commercial nuclear power reactors. This year, the Materials Aging and Degradation (MAaD) Pathway of this program has placed emphasis on emerging Non-Destructive Evaluation (NDE) methods which support these objectives. DOE funded Research and Development (R&D) on emerging NDE techniques to support commercial nuclear reactor sustainability is expected to begin nextmore » year. This summer, the MAaD Pathway invited subject matter experts to participate in a series of workshops which developed the basis for the research plan of these DOE R&D NDE activities. This document presents the results of one of these workshops which are the DOE LWRS NDE R&D Roadmap for Reactor Pressure Vessels (RPV). These workshops made a substantial effort to coordinate the DOE NDE R&D with that already underway or planned by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) through their representation at these workshops.« less

The Influence of Planetary Mass on the Dynamical Lifetime of Planetary Systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lissauer, J. J.; Duncan, M. J.; Young, Richard E. (Technical Monitor)

1997-01-01

Recent numerical and analytic studies of planetary orbits have demonstrated the importance of resonances and chaos in destabilizing planetary systems. Newton's "clockwork" description of regular, predictable planetary orbits has been replaced by a view in which many systems can have long but finite lifetimes. This new knowledge has altered our perceptions of the later stages of planetary growth and of the stability of planetary systems. Stability criteria are inexact and time dependent. Most previous studies have focused on the effects in initial planetary orbits on the stability of the system. We are conducting an investigation which focuses on the dependence of stability criteria on planetary mass. Synthetic systems are created by increasing the masses of the planets in our Solar System or of the moons of a particular planet; these systems are then integrated until orbit crossing occurs. We have found that over some ranges, the time until orbit crossing varies to a good approximation as a power clothe factor by which the masses of the secondaries arc increased; some scatter occurs as a consequence of vie chaotic nature of orbital evolution. The slope of this power law varies substantially from system to system, and for moons it is mildly dependent on the inclusion of the planet's quadrupole moment in the gravitational potential.

Maximization of revenues for power sales from a solid waste resources recovery facility

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1991-12-01

The report discusses the actual implementation of the best alternative in selling electrical power generated by an existing waste-to-energy facility, the Metro-Dade County Resources Recovery Plant. After the plant processes and extracts various products out of the municipal solid waste, it burns it to produce electrical power. The price for buying power to satisfy the internal needs of our Resources Recovery Facility (RRF) is substantially higher than the power price for selling electricity to any other entity. Therefore, without any further analysis, it was decided to first satisfy those internal needs and then export the excess power. Various alternatives weremore » thoroughly explored as to what to do with the excess power. Selling power to the power utilities or utilizing the power in other facilities were the primary options.« less

Improved accuracy of intraocular lens power calculation with the Zeiss IOLMaster.

PubMed

Olsen, Thomas

2007-02-01

This study aimed to demonstrate how the level of accuracy in intraocular lens (IOL) power calculation can be improved with optical biometry using partial optical coherence interferometry (PCI) (Zeiss IOLMaster) and current anterior chamber depth (ACD) prediction algorithms. Intraocular lens power in 461 consecutive cataract operations was calculated using both PCI and ultrasound and the accuracy of the results of each technique were compared. To illustrate the importance of ACD prediction per se, predictions were calculated using both a recently published 5-variable method and the Haigis 2-variable method and the results compared. All calculations were optimized in retrospect to account for systematic errors, including IOL constants and other off-set errors. The average absolute IOL prediction error (observed minus expected refraction) was 0.65 dioptres with ultrasound and 0.43 D with PCI using the 5-variable ACD prediction method (p < 0.00001). The number of predictions within +/- 0.5 D, +/- 1.0 D and +/- 2.0 D of the expected outcome was 62.5%, 92.4% and 99.9% with PCI, compared with 45.5%, 77.3% and 98.4% with ultrasound, respectively (p < 0.00001). The 2-variable ACD method resulted in an average error in PCI predictions of 0.46 D, which was significantly higher than the error in the 5-variable method (p < 0.001). The accuracy of IOL power calculation can be significantly improved using calibrated axial length readings obtained with PCI and modern IOL power calculation formulas incorporating the latest generation ACD prediction algorithms.

40 CFR 35.713 - Eligible recipients.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... Monitoring (section 28) § 35.713 Eligible recipients. (a) The Regional Administrator will treat a Tribe or... an existing government exercising substantial governmental duties and powers; (3) Has adequate...

Earthquake cycle simulations with rate-and-state friction and power-law viscoelasticity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Allison, Kali L.; Dunham, Eric M.

2018-05-01

We simulate earthquake cycles with rate-and-state fault friction and off-fault power-law viscoelasticity for the classic 2D antiplane shear problem of a vertical, strike-slip plate boundary fault. We investigate the interaction between fault slip and bulk viscous flow with experimentally-based flow laws for quartz-diorite and olivine for the crust and mantle, respectively. Simulations using three linear geotherms (dT/dz = 20, 25, and 30 K/km) produce different deformation styles at depth, ranging from significant interseismic fault creep to purely bulk viscous flow. However, they have almost identical earthquake recurrence interval, nucleation depth, and down-dip coseismic slip limit. Despite these similarities, variations in the predicted surface deformation might permit discrimination of the deformation mechanism using geodetic observations. Additionally, in the 25 and 30 K/km simulations, the crust drags the mantle; the 20 K/km simulation also predicts this, except within 10 km of the fault where the reverse occurs. However, basal tractions play a minor role in the overall force balance of the lithosphere, at least for the flow laws used in our study. Therefore, the depth-integrated stress on the fault is balanced primarily by shear stress on vertical, fault-parallel planes. Because strain rates are higher directly below the fault than far from it, stresses are also higher. Thus, the upper crust far from the fault bears a substantial part of the tectonic load, resulting in unrealistically high stresses. In the real Earth, this might lead to distributed plastic deformation or formation of subparallel faults. Alternatively, fault pore pressures in excess of hydrostatic and/or weakening mechanisms such as grain size reduction and thermo-mechanical coupling could lower the strength of the ductile fault root in the lower crust and, concomitantly, off-fault upper crustal stresses.

Instability of different adolescent metabolic syndrome definitions tracked into early adulthood metabolic syndrome: Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study (TLGS).

PubMed

Asghari, Golaleh; Eftekharzadeh, Anita; Hosseinpanah, Farhad; Ghareh, Sahar; Mirmiran, Parvin; Azizi, Fereidoun

2017-02-01

There are substantial controversies about the clinical utility of adolescent metabolic syndrome (MetS). The current study examined the stability of adolescent MetS by assessing the agreement and discriminative abilities of four different definitions of adolescent MetS and the adult MetS definition during a 10.4-yr follow up. For this study, 1424 adolescents (55.2% female), who participated in the framework of the Tehran Lipid and Glucose Study were included. Kappa was calculated for agreement between adolescent MetS definitions [Cook, de Ferranti, pediatric National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) and pediatric International Diabetes Federation (IDF)] and the adulthood MetS definition defined by the joint interim statement (JIS) criteria. MetS persistence, instability, and incidence were assessed, and for each of the four adolescent definitions, sensitivity, specificity, and area under receiver operating curve (AUC) for the counting of categorical adulthood MetS components was evaluated. The agreement between the four adolescent MetS definitions and JIS was poor (κ = 0.094-0.255). All definitions showed low sensitivity and high specificity, except for de Ferranti's, which contrary to other definitions, had higher sensitivity and lower specificity. All four adolescent definitions revealed generally low AUCs (0.601-0.647). Compared with the pubertal group (11-14 yr), the predictive power was slightly higher in the late-pubertal group (15-18 yr). Cook's and de Ferranti's definitions showed fairly better predictive powers (0.647 and 0.644, respectively). Across all definitions, instability ranged between 5.4 and 19.6%. The adolescent definitions show considerable amount of instability defined as poor agreement and low discriminative abilities tracked into early adulthood. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Optimization of ultrasound-assisted aqueous two-phase system extraction of polyphenolic compounds from Aronia melanocarpa pomace by response surface methodology.

PubMed

Xu, Yan-Yang; Qiu, Yang; Ren, Hui; Ju, Dong-Hu; Jia, Hong-Lei

2017-03-16

Aronia melanocarpa berries are abundant in polyphenolic compounds. After juice production, the pomace of pressed berries still contains a substantial amount of polyphenolic compounds. For efficient utilization of A. melanocarpa berries and the enhancement of polyphenolic compound yields in Aronia melanocarpa pomace (AMP), total phenolics (TP) and total flavonoids (TF) from AMP were extracted, using ultrasound-assisted aqueous two-phase system (UAE-ATPS) extraction method. First, the influences of ammonium sulfate concentration, ethanol-water ratio, ultrasonic time, and ultrasonic power on TP and TF yields were investigated. On this basis, process variables such as ammonium sulfate concentration (0.30-0.35 g mL -1 ), ethanol-water ratio (0.6-0.8), ultrasonic time (40-60 min), and ultrasonic power (175-225 W) were further optimized by implementing Box-Benhnken design with response surface methodology. The experimental results showed that optimal extraction conditions of TP from AMP were as follows: ammonium sulfate concentration of 0.324 g mL -1 , ethanol-water ratio of 0.69, ultrasonic time of 52 min, and ultrasonic power of 200 W. Meanwhile, ammonium sulfate concentration of 0.320 g mL -1 , ethanol-water ratio of 0.71, ultrasonic time of 50 min, and ultrasonic power of 200 W were determined as optimum extraction conditions of TF in AMP. Experimental validation was performed, where TP and TF yields reached 68.15 ± 1.04 and 11.67 ± 0.63 mg g -1 , respectively. Close agreement was found between experimental and predicted values. Overall, the present results demonstrated that ultrasound-assisted aqueous two-phase system extraction method was successfully used to extract total phenolics and flavonoids in A. melanocarpa pomace.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jacobson, Paul T; Hagerman, George; Scott, George

This project estimates the naturally available and technically recoverable U.S. wave energy resources, using a 51-month Wavewatch III hindcast database developed especially for this study by National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) National Centers for Environmental Prediction. For total resource estimation, wave power density in terms of kilowatts per meter is aggregated across a unit diameter circle. This approach is fully consistent with accepted global practice and includes the resource made available by the lateral transfer of wave energy along wave crests, which enables wave diffraction to substantially reestablish wave power densities within a few kilometers of a linear array,more » even for fixed terminator devices. The total available wave energy resource along the U.S. continental shelf edge, based on accumulating unit circle wave power densities, is estimated to be 2,640 TWh/yr, broken down as follows: 590 TWh/yr for the West Coast, 240 TWh/yr for the East Coast, 80 TWh/yr for the Gulf of Mexico, 1570 TWh/yr for Alaska, 130 TWh/yr for Hawaii, and 30 TWh/yr for Puerto Rico. The total recoverable wave energy resource, as constrained by an array capacity packing density of 15 megawatts per kilometer of coastline, with a 100-fold operating range between threshold and maximum operating conditions in terms of input wave power density available to such arrays, yields a total recoverable resource along the U.S. continental shelf edge of 1,170 TWh/yr, broken down as follows: 250 TWh/yr for the West Coast, 160 TWh/yr for the East Coast, 60 TWh/yr for the Gulf of Mexico, 620 TWh/yr for Alaska, 80 TWh/yr for Hawaii, and 20 TWh/yr for Puerto Rico.« less

Using a Guided Machine Learning Ensemble Model to Predict Discharge Disposition following Meningioma Resection.

PubMed

Muhlestein, Whitney E; Akagi, Dallin S; Kallos, Justiss A; Morone, Peter J; Weaver, Kyle D; Thompson, Reid C; Chambless, Lola B

2018-04-01

Objective  Machine learning (ML) algorithms are powerful tools for predicting patient outcomes. This study pilots a novel approach to algorithm selection and model creation using prediction of discharge disposition following meningioma resection as a proof of concept. Materials and Methods  A diversity of ML algorithms were trained on a single-institution database of meningioma patients to predict discharge disposition. Algorithms were ranked by predictive power and top performers were combined to create an ensemble model. The final ensemble was internally validated on never-before-seen data to demonstrate generalizability. The predictive power of the ensemble was compared with a logistic regression. Further analyses were performed to identify how important variables impact the ensemble. Results  Our ensemble model predicted disposition significantly better than a logistic regression (area under the curve of 0.78 and 0.71, respectively, p  = 0.01). Tumor size, presentation at the emergency department, body mass index, convexity location, and preoperative motor deficit most strongly influence the model, though the independent impact of individual variables is nuanced. Conclusion  Using a novel ML technique, we built a guided ML ensemble model that predicts discharge destination following meningioma resection with greater predictive power than a logistic regression, and that provides greater clinical insight than a univariate analysis. These techniques can be extended to predict many other patient outcomes of interest.

Hybrid robust predictive optimization method of power system dispatch

DOEpatents

Chandra, Ramu Sharat [Niskayuna, NY; Liu, Yan [Ballston Lake, NY; Bose, Sumit [Niskayuna, NY; de Bedout, Juan Manuel [West Glenville, NY

2011-08-02

A method of power system dispatch control solves power system dispatch problems by integrating a larger variety of generation, load and storage assets, including without limitation, combined heat and power (CHP) units, renewable generation with forecasting, controllable loads, electric, thermal and water energy storage. The method employs a predictive algorithm to dynamically schedule different assets in order to achieve global optimization and maintain the system normal operation.

Power capability evaluation for lithium iron phosphate batteries based on multi-parameter constraints estimation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Yujie; Pan, Rui; Liu, Chang; Chen, Zonghai; Ling, Qiang

2018-01-01

The battery power capability is intimately correlated with the climbing, braking and accelerating performance of the electric vehicles. Accurate power capability prediction can not only guarantee the safety but also regulate driving behavior and optimize battery energy usage. However, the nonlinearity of the battery model is very complex especially for the lithium iron phosphate batteries. Besides, the hysteresis loop in the open-circuit voltage curve is easy to cause large error in model prediction. In this work, a multi-parameter constraints dynamic estimation method is proposed to predict the battery continuous period power capability. A high-fidelity battery model which considers the battery polarization and hysteresis phenomenon is presented to approximate the high nonlinearity of the lithium iron phosphate battery. Explicit analyses of power capability with multiple constraints are elaborated, specifically the state-of-energy is considered in power capability assessment. Furthermore, to solve the problem of nonlinear system state estimation, and suppress noise interference, the UKF based state observer is employed for power capability prediction. The performance of the proposed methodology is demonstrated by experiments under different dynamic characterization schedules. The charge and discharge power capabilities of the lithium iron phosphate batteries are quantitatively assessed under different time scales and temperatures.

Balancing computation and communication power in power constrained clusters

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Piga, Leonardo; Paul, Indrani; Huang, Wei

Systems, apparatuses, and methods for balancing computation and communication power in power constrained environments. A data processing cluster with a plurality of compute nodes may perform parallel processing of a workload in a power constrained environment. Nodes that finish tasks early may be power-gated based on one or more conditions. In some scenarios, a node may predict a wait duration and go into a reduced power consumption state if the wait duration is predicted to be greater than a threshold. The power saved by power-gating one or more nodes may be reassigned for use by other nodes. A cluster agentmore » may be configured to reassign the unused power to the active nodes to expedite workload processing.« less

Modeling of a resonant heat engine

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Preetham, B. S.; Anderson, M.; Richards, C.

2012-12-01

A resonant heat engine in which the piston assembly is replaced by a sealed elastic cavity is modeled and analyzed. A nondimensional lumped-parameter model is derived and used to investigate the factors that control the performance of the engine. The thermal efficiency predicted by the model agrees with that predicted from the relation for the Otto cycle based on compression ratio. The predictions show that for a fixed mechanical load, increasing the heat input results in increased efficiency. The output power and power density are shown to depend on the loading for a given heat input. The loading condition for maximum output power is different from that required for maximum power density.

Synchrophasor-Assisted Prediction of Stability/Instability of a Power System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Saha Roy, Biman Kumar; Sinha, Avinash Kumar; Pradhan, Ashok Kumar

2013-05-01

This paper presents a technique for real-time prediction of stability/instability of a power system based on synchrophasor measurements obtained from phasor measurement units (PMUs) at generator buses. For stability assessment the technique makes use of system severity indices developed using bus voltage magnitude obtained from PMUs and generator electrical power. Generator power is computed using system information and PMU information like voltage and current phasors obtained from PMU. System stability/instability is predicted when the indices exceeds a threshold value. A case study is carried out on New England 10-generator, 39-bus system to validate the performance of the technique.

Prediction of the effects of propeller operation on the static longitudinal stability of single-engine tractor monoplanes with flaps retracted

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Weil, Joseph; Sleeman, William C , Jr

1949-01-01

The effects of propeller operation on the static longitudinal stability of single-engine tractor monoplanes are analyzed, and a simple method is presented for computing power-on pitching-moment curves for flap-retracted flight conditions. The methods evolved are based on the results of powered-model wind-tunnel investigations of 28 model configurations. Correlation curves are presented from which the effects of power on the downwash over the tail and the stabilizer effectiveness can be rapidly predicted. The procedures developed enable prediction of power-on longitudinal stability characteristics that are generally in very good agreement with experiment.

An Operating Method Using Prediction of Photovoltaic Power for a Photovoltaic-Diesel Hybrid Power Generation System

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yamamoto, Shigehiro; Sumi, Kazuyoshi; Nishikawa, Eiichi; Hashimoto, Takeshi

This paper describes a novel operating method using prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power for a photovoltaic-diesel hybrid power generation system. The system is composed of a PV array, a storage battery, a bi-directional inverter and a diesel engine generator (DG). The proposed method enables the system to save fuel consumption by using PV energy effectively, reducing charge and discharge energy of the storage battery, and avoiding low-load operation of the DG. The PV power is simply predicted from a theoretical equation of solar radiation and the observed PV energy for a constant time before the prediction. The amount of fuel consumption of the proposed method is compared with that of other methods by a simulation based on measurement data of the PV power at an actual PV generation system for one year. The simulation results indicate that the amount of fuel consumption of the proposed method is smaller than that of any other methods, and is close to that of the ideal operation of the DG.

A Comparison between Bench Press Throw and Ballistic Push-Up tests to assess upper-body power in trained individuals.

PubMed

Bartolomei, Sandro; Nigro, Federico; Ruggeri, Sandro; Lanzoni, Ivan Malagoli; Ciacci, Simone; Merni, Franco; Sadres, Eliahu; Hoffman, Jay R; Semprini, Gabriele

2018-03-06

The purpose of the present study was to validate the ballistic push-up test performed with hands on a force plate (BPU) as a method to measure upper-body power. Twenty-eight experienced resistance trained men (age = 25.4 ± 5.2 y; body mass = 78.5 ± 9.0 kg; body height = 179.6 ± 7.8 cm) performed, two days apart, a bench press 1RM test and upper-body power tests. Mean power and peak power were assessed using the bench press throw test (BT) and the BPU test performed in randomized order. The area under the force/power curve (AUC) obtained at BT was also calculated. Power expressed at BPU was estimated using a time-based prediction equation. Mean force and the participant's body weight were used to predict the bench press 1RM. Pearson product moment correlations were used to examine relationships between the power assessment methods and between the predicted 1RM bench and the actual value. Large correlations (0.79; p < 0.001) were found between AUC and mean power expressed at BPU. Large correlations were also detected between mean power and peak power expressed at BT and BPU (0.75; p < 0.001 and 0.74; p < 0.001, respectively). Very large correlations (0.87; p < 0.001) were found between the 1RM bench and the 1RM predicted by the BPU. Results of the present study indicate that BPU represents a valid and reliable method to estimate the upper-body power in resistance-trained individuals.

A Demonstration of Regression False Positive Selection in Data Mining

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pinder, Jonathan P.

2014-01-01

Business analytics courses, such as marketing research, data mining, forecasting, and advanced financial modeling, have substantial predictive modeling components. The predictive modeling in these courses requires students to estimate and test many linear regressions. As a result, false positive variable selection ("type I errors") is…

Impact of cool storage air-conditioning in commercial sector on power system operation in Thailand

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Surapong, C.; Bundit, L.

The results are presented from an investigation into the potential application for cool storage air-conditioning, and the resultant beneficial impact on power system operation in Thailand is discussed. Field assessment through interviews with decision makers in the identified customer groups produces results that show good potential for cool storage application. Results from a computer program used to calculate power production cost and other characteristics show that substantial benefits would also accrue to the generating utility.

Fission-powered in-core thermoacoustic sensor

DOE PAGES

Garrett, Steven L.; Smith, James A.; Smith, Robert W. M.; ...

2016-04-07

A thermoacoustic engine is operated within the core of a nuclear reactor to acoustically telemeter coolant temperature (frequency-encoded) and reactor power level (amplitude-encoded) outside the reactor, thus providing the values of these important parameters without external electrical power or wiring. We present data from two hydrophones in the coolant (far from the core) and an accelerometer attached to a structure outside the reactor. Furthermore, these signals have been detected even in the presence of substantial background noise generated by the reactor's fluid pumps.

Fission-powered in-core thermoacoustic sensor

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Garrett, Steven L.; Smith, James A.; Smith, Robert W. M.

2016-04-04

A thermoacoustic engine is operated within the core of a nuclear reactor to acoustically telemeter coolant temperature (frequency-encoded) and reactor power level (amplitude-encoded) outside the reactor, thus providing the values of these important parameters without external electrical power or wiring. We present data from two hydrophones in the coolant (far from the core) and an accelerometer attached to a structure outside the reactor. These signals have been detected even in the presence of substantial background noise generated by the reactor's fluid pumps.

Studying the Power of the Integrative Weaning Index in Predicting the Success Rate of the Spontaneous Breathing Trial in Patients under Mechanical Ventilation.

PubMed

Ebrahimabadi, Sahar; Moghadam, Ahmad Bagheri; Vakili, Mohammadali; Modanloo, Mahnaz; Khoddam, Homeira

2017-08-01

The use of weaning predictive indicators can avoid early extubation and wrongful prolonged mechanical ventilation. This study aimed to determine the power of the integrative weaning index (IWI) in predicting the success rate of the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) in patients under mechanical ventilation. In this prospective study, 105 patients undergoing mechanical ventilation for over 48 h were enrolled. Before weaning initiation, the IWI was calculated and based on the defined cutoff point (≥25), the success rate of the SBT was predicted. In case of weaning from the device, 2-h SBT was performed and the physiologic and respiratory indices were continuously studied while being intubated. If they were in the normal range besides the patient's tolerance, the test was considered as a success. The result was then compared with the IWI and further analyzed. The SBT was successful in 90 (85.7%) and unsuccessful in 15 (14.3%) cases. The difference between the true patient outcome after SBT, and the IWI prediction was 0.143 according to the Kappa agreement coefficient ( P < 0.001). Moreover, regarding the predictive power, IWI had high sensitivity (95.6%), specificity (40%), positive and negative predictive values (90.5% and 60), positive and negative likelihood ratios (1.59 and 0.11), and accuracy (86.7%). The IWI as a more objective indicator has acceptable accuracy and power for predicting the 2-h SBT result. Therefore, in addition to the reliable prediction of the final weaning outcome, it has favorable power to predict if the patient is ready to breathe spontaneously as the first step to weaning.

Studying the Power of the Integrative Weaning Index in Predicting the Success Rate of the Spontaneous Breathing Trial in Patients under Mechanical Ventilation

PubMed Central

Ebrahimabadi, Sahar; Moghadam, Ahmad Bagheri; Vakili, Mohammadali; Modanloo, Mahnaz; Khoddam, Homeira

2017-01-01

Background and Aims: The use of weaning predictive indicators can avoid early extubation and wrongful prolonged mechanical ventilation. This study aimed to determine the power of the integrative weaning index (IWI) in predicting the success rate of the spontaneous breathing trial (SBT) in patients under mechanical ventilation. Materials and Methods: In this prospective study, 105 patients undergoing mechanical ventilation for over 48 h were enrolled. Before weaning initiation, the IWI was calculated and based on the defined cutoff point (≥25), the success rate of the SBT was predicted. In case of weaning from the device, 2-h SBT was performed and the physiologic and respiratory indices were continuously studied while being intubated. If they were in the normal range besides the patient's tolerance, the test was considered as a success. The result was then compared with the IWI and further analyzed. Results: The SBT was successful in 90 (85.7%) and unsuccessful in 15 (14.3%) cases. The difference between the true patient outcome after SBT, and the IWI prediction was 0.143 according to the Kappa agreement coefficient (P < 0.001). Moreover, regarding the predictive power, IWI had high sensitivity (95.6%), specificity (40%), positive and negative predictive values (90.5% and 60), positive and negative likelihood ratios (1.59 and 0.11), and accuracy (86.7%). Conclusion: The IWI as a more objective indicator has acceptable accuracy and power for predicting the 2-h SBT result. Therefore, in addition to the reliable prediction of the final weaning outcome, it has favorable power to predict if the patient is ready to breathe spontaneously as the first step to weaning. PMID:28904477

Electronic stopping powers for heavy ions in SiC and SiO{sub 2}

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, K.; Xue, H.; Zhang, Y., E-mail: Zhangy1@ornl.gov

2014-01-28

Accurate information on electronic stopping power is fundamental for broad advances in materials science, electronic industry, space exploration, and sustainable energy technologies. In the case of slow heavy ions in light targets, current codes and models provide significantly inconsistent predictions, among which the Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) code is the most commonly used one. Experimental evidence, however, has demonstrated considerable errors in the predicted ion and damage profiles based on SRIM stopping powers. In this work, electronic stopping powers for Cl, Br, I, and Au ions are experimentally determined in two important functional materials, SiC andmore » SiO{sub 2}, based on a single ion technique, and new electronic stopping power values are derived over the energy regime from 0 to 15 MeV, where large deviations from the SRIM predictions are observed. As an experimental validation, Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) are utilized to measure the depth profiles of implanted Au ions in SiC for energies from 700 keV to 15 MeV. The measured ion distributions by both RBS and SIMS are considerably deeper than the SRIM predictions, but agree well with predictions based on our derived stopping powers.« less

Electronic Stopping Powers For Heavy Ions In SiC And SiO2

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Jin, Ke; Zhang, Y.; Zhu, Zihua

2014-01-24

Accurate information on electronic stopping power is fundamental for broad advances in materials science, electronic industry, space exploration, and sustainable energy technologies. In the case of slow heavy ions in light targets, current codes and models provide significantly inconsistent predictions, among which the Stopping and Range of Ions in Matter (SRIM) code is the most commonly used one. Experimental evidence, however, has demonstrated considerable errors in the predicted ion and damage profiles based on SRIM stopping powers. In this work, electronic stopping powers for Cl, Br, I, and Au ions are experimentally determined in two important functional materials, SiC andmore » SiO2, based on a single ion technique, and new electronic stopping power values are derived over the energy regime from 0 to 15 MeV, where large deviations from the SRIM predictions are observed. As an experimental validation, Rutherford backscattering spectrometry (RBS) and secondary ion mass spectrometry (SIMS) are utilized to measure the depth profiles of implanted Au ions in SiC for energies from 700 keV to 15MeV. The measured ion distributions by both RBS and SIMS are considerably deeper than the SRIM predictions, but agree well with predictions based on our derived stopping powers.« less

Estimating Concentrations of Road-Salt Constituents in Highway-Runoff from Measurements of Specific Conductance

USGS Publications Warehouse

Granato, Gregory E.; Smith, Kirk P.

1999-01-01

Discrete or composite samples of highway runoff may not adequately represent in-storm water-quality fluctuations because continuous records of water stage, specific conductance, pH, and temperature of the runoff indicate that these properties fluctuate substantially during a storm. Continuous records of water-quality properties can be used to maximize the information obtained about the stormwater runoff system being studied and can provide the context needed to interpret analyses of water samples. Concentrations of the road-salt constituents calcium, sodium, and chloride in highway runoff were estimated from theoretical and empirical relations between specific conductance and the concentrations of these ions. These relations were examined using the analysis of 233 highwayrunoff samples collected from August 1988 through March 1995 at four highway-drainage monitoring stations along State Route 25 in southeastern Massachusetts. Theoretically, the specific conductance of a water sample is the sum of the individual conductances attributed to each ionic species in solution-the product of the concentrations of each ion in milliequivalents per liter (meq/L) multiplied by the equivalent ionic conductance at infinite dilution-thereby establishing the principle of superposition. Superposition provides an estimate of actual specific conductance that is within measurement error throughout the conductance range of many natural waters, with errors of less than ?5 percent below 1,000 microsiemens per centimeter (?S/cm) and ?10 percent between 1,000 and 4,000 ?S/cm if all major ionic constituents are accounted for. A semi-empirical method (adjusted superposition) was used to adjust for concentration effects-superposition-method prediction errors at high and low concentrations-and to relate measured specific conductance to that calculated using superposition. The adjusted superposition method, which was developed to interpret the State Route 25 highway-runoff records, accounts for contributions of constituents other than calcium, sodium, and chloride in dilute waters. The adjusted superposition method also accounts for the attenuation of each constituent's contribution to conductance as ionic strength increases. Use of the adjusted superposition method generally reduced predictive error to within measurement error throughout the range of specific conductance (from 37 to 51,500 ?S/cm) in the highway runoff samples. The effects of pH, temperature, and organic constituents on the relation between concentrations of dissolved constituents and measured specific conductance were examined but these properties did not substantially affect interpretation of the Route 25 data set. Predictive abilities of the adjusted superposition method were similar to results obtained by standard regression techniques, but the adjusted superposition method has several advantages. Adjusted superposition can be applied using available published data about the constituents in precipitation, highway runoff, and the deicing chemicals applied to a highway. This semi-empirical method can be used as a predictive and diagnostic tool before a substantial number of samples are collected, but the power of the regression method is based upon a large number of water-quality analyses that may be affected by a bias in the data.

Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes.

PubMed

Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

2011-12-01

This article compares statistical methods for modeling power outage durations during hurricanes and examines the predictive accuracy of these methods. Being able to make accurate predictions of power outage durations is valuable because the information can be used by utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently. This information can also help inform customers and public agencies of the expected outage times, enabling better collective response planning, and coordination of restoration efforts for other critical infrastructures that depend on electricity. In the long run, outage duration estimates for future storm scenarios may help utilities and public agencies better allocate risk management resources to balance the disruption from hurricanes with the cost of hardening power systems. We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage duration times caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The methods compared include both regression models (accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models (Cox PH)) and data mining techniques (regression trees, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), and multivariate additive regression splines). We then validate our models against two other hurricanes. Our results indicate that BART yields the best prediction accuracy and that it is possible to predict outage durations with reasonable accuracy. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Performance of Comorbidity, Risk Adjustment, and Functional Status Measures in Expenditure Prediction for Patients With Diabetes

PubMed Central

Maciejewski, Matthew L.; Liu, Chuan-Fen; Fihn, Stephan D.

2009-01-01

OBJECTIVE—To compare the ability of generic comorbidity and risk adjustment measures, a diabetes-specific measure, and a self-reported functional status measure to explain variation in health care expenditures for individuals with diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—This study included a retrospective cohort of 3,092 diabetic veterans participating in a multisite trial. Two comorbidity measures, four risk adjusters, a functional status measure, a diabetes complication count, and baseline expenditures were constructed from administrative and survey data. Outpatient, inpatient, and total expenditure models were estimated using ordinary least squares regression. Adjusted R2 statistics and predictive ratios were compared across measures to assess overall explanatory power and explanatory power of low- and high-cost subgroups. RESULTS—Administrative data–based risk adjusters performed better than the comorbidity, functional status, and diabetes-specific measures in all expenditure models. The diagnostic cost groups (DCGs) measure had the greatest predictive power overall and for the low- and high-cost subgroups, while the diabetes-specific measure had the lowest predictive power. A model with DCGs and the diabetes-specific measure modestly improved predictive power. CONCLUSIONS—Existing generic measures can be useful for diabetes-specific research and policy applications, but more predictive diabetes-specific measures are needed. PMID:18945927

Operation and Performance of a Biphase Turbine Power Plant at the Cerro Prieto Geothermal Field (Final Report)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hays, Lance G.

2000-09-01

A full scale, wellhead Biphase turbine was manufactured and installed with the balance of plant at Well 103 of the Cerro Prieto geothermal resource in Baja, California. The Biphase turbine was first synchronized with the electrical grid of Comision Federal de Electricidad on August 20, 1997. The Biphase power plant was operated from that time until May 23, 2000, a period of 2 years and 9 months. A total of 77,549 kWh were delivered to the grid. The power plant was subsequently placed in a standby condition pending replacement of the rotor with a newly designed, higher power rotor andmore » replacement of the bearings and seals. The maximum measured power output of the Biphase turbine, 808 kWe at 640 psig wellhead pressure, agreed closely with the predicted output, 840 kWe. When combined with the backpressure steam turbine the total output power from that flow would be increased by 40% above the power derived only from the flow by the present flash steam plant. The design relations used to predict performance and design the turbine were verified by these tests. The performance and durability of the Biphase turbine support the conclusion of the Economics and Application Report previously published, (Appendix A). The newly designed rotor (the Dual Pressure Rotor) was analyzed for the above power condition. The Dual Pressure Rotor would increase the power output to 2064 kWe by incorporating two pressure letdown stages in the Biphase rotor, eliminating the requirement for a backpressure steam turbine. The power plant availability was low due to deposition of solids from the well on the Biphase rotor and balance of plant problems. A great deal of plant down time resulted from the requirement to develop methods to handle the solids and from testing the apparatus in the Biphase turbine. Finally an online, washing method using the high pressure two-phase flow was developed which completely eliminated the solids problem. The availability of the Biphase turbine itself was 100% after implementations of this method in March 2000. However, failures of instrumentation and control system components led to additional plant down time and damage to the bearings and seals. The enthalpy and pressure of well 103 declined substantially from the inception of the project. When the project was started the wellhead pressure and enthalpy were 760 psig and 882 Btu/lb respectively. At the time the plant was placed in standby the corresponding values were only 525 psig and 658 Btu/lb. This reduced the available plant power to only 400 kWe making the project economically unfeasible. However, replacement of the existing rotor with the Dual Pressure Rotor and replacement of the bearings and seals will enable the existing Biphase turbine to produce 1190 kWe at the present well conditions without the backpressure steam turbine. Operation with the present staff can then be sustained by selling power under the existing Agreement with CFE. Implementation of this option is recommended with operation of the facility to continue as a demonstration plant. Biphase turbine theory, design and performance are reported herein. The construction of the Biphase turbine and power plant and operational experience are detailed. Improvements in the Biphase turbine are indicated and analyzed. The impact of Biphase techonology on geothermal power production is discussed and recommendations made.« less

12 CFR 206.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... credit and liquidity risks, including operational risks, related to intraday and interday transactions... substantial extent in the regular course of business; and (5) Has the power to accept demand deposits. (f...

12 CFR 206.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... credit and liquidity risks, including operational risks, related to intraday and interday transactions... substantial extent in the regular course of business; and (5) Has the power to accept demand deposits. (f...

Off-Ice Anaerobic Power Does Not Predict On-Ice Repeated Shift Performance in Hockey.

PubMed

Peterson, Ben J; Fitzgerald, John S; Dietz, Calvin C; Ziegler, Kevin S; Baker, Sarah E; Snyder, Eric M

2016-09-01

Peterson, BJ, Fitzgerald, JS, Dietz, CC, Ziegler, KS, Baker, SE, and Snyder, EM. Off-ice anaerobic power does not predict on-ice repeated shift performance in hockey. J Strength Cond Res 30(9): 2375-2381, 2016-Anaerobic power is a significant predictor of acceleration and top speed in team sport athletes. Historically, these findings have been applied to ice hockey although recent research has brought their validity for this sport into question. As ice hockey emphasizes the ability to repeatedly produce power, single bout anaerobic power tests should be examined to determine their ability to predict on-ice performance. We tested whether conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests could predict on-ice acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift performance. Forty-five hockey players, aged 18-24 years, completed anthropometric, off-ice, and on-ice tests. Anthropometric and off-ice testing included height, weight, body composition, vertical jump, and Wingate tests. On-ice testing consisted of acceleration, top speed, and repeated shift fatigue tests. Vertical jump (VJ) (r = -0.42; r = -0.58), Wingate relative peak power (WRPP) (r = -0.32; r = -0.43), and relative mean power (WRMP) (r = -0.34; r = -0.48) were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) to on-ice acceleration and top speed, respectively. Conversely, none of the off-ice tests correlated with on-ice repeated shift performance, as measured by first gate, second gate, or total course fatigue; VJ (r = 0.06; r = 0.13; r = 0.09), WRPP (r = 0.06; r = 0.14; r = 0.10), or WRMP (r = -0.10; r = -0.01; r = -0.01). Although conventional off-ice anaerobic power tests predict single bout on-ice acceleration and top speed, they neither predict the repeated shift ability of the player, nor are good markers for performance in ice hockey.