Suicide in obsessive-compulsive disorder: a population-based study of 36 788 Swedish patients.

PubMed

Fernández de la Cruz, L; Rydell, M; Runeson, B; D'Onofrio, B M; Brander, G; Rück, C; Lichtenstein, P; Larsson, H; Mataix-Cols, D

2017-11-01

The risk of death by suicide in individuals with obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD) is largely unknown. Previous studies have been small and methodologically flawed. We analyzed data from the Swedish national registers to estimate the risk of suicide in OCD and identify the risk and protective factors associated with suicidal behavior in this group. We used a matched case-cohort design to estimate the risk of deaths by suicide and attempted suicide in individuals diagnosed with OCD, compared with matched general population controls (1:10). Cox regression models were used to study predictors of suicidal behavior. We identified 36 788 OCD patients in the Swedish National Patient Register between 1969 and 2013. Of these, 545 had died by suicide and 4297 had attempted suicide. In unadjusted models, individuals with OCD had an increased risk of both dying by suicide (odds ratio (OR)=9.83 (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.72-11.08)) and attempting suicide (OR=5.45 (95% CI, 5.24-5.67)), compared with matched controls. After adjusting for psychiatric comorbidities, the risk was reduced but remained substantial for both death by suicide and attempted suicide. Within the OCD cohort, a previous suicide attempt was the strongest predictor of death by suicide. Having a comorbid personality or substance use disorder also increased the risk of suicide. Being a woman, higher parental education and having a comorbid anxiety disorder were protective factors. We conclude that patients with OCD are at a substantial risk of suicide. Importantly, this risk remains substantial after adjusting for psychiatric comorbidities. Suicide risk should be carefully monitored in patients with OCD.

Suicide in obsessive–compulsive disorder: a population-based study of 36 788 Swedish patients

PubMed Central

Fernández de la Cruz, L; Rydell, M; Runeson, B; D'Onofrio, B M; Brander, G; Rück, C; Lichtenstein, P; Larsson, H; Mataix-Cols, D

2017-01-01

The risk of death by suicide in individuals with obsessive–compulsive disorder (OCD) is largely unknown. Previous studies have been small and methodologically flawed. We analyzed data from the Swedish national registers to estimate the risk of suicide in OCD and identify the risk and protective factors associated with suicidal behavior in this group. We used a matched case–cohort design to estimate the risk of deaths by suicide and attempted suicide in individuals diagnosed with OCD, compared with matched general population controls (1:10). Cox regression models were used to study predictors of suicidal behavior. We identified 36 788 OCD patients in the Swedish National Patient Register between 1969 and 2013. Of these, 545 had died by suicide and 4297 had attempted suicide. In unadjusted models, individuals with OCD had an increased risk of both dying by suicide (odds ratio (OR)=9.83 (95% confidence interval (CI), 8.72–11.08)) and attempting suicide (OR=5.45 (95% CI, 5.24–5.67)), compared with matched controls. After adjusting for psychiatric comorbidities, the risk was reduced but remained substantial for both death by suicide and attempted suicide. Within the OCD cohort, a previous suicide attempt was the strongest predictor of death by suicide. Having a comorbid personality or substance use disorder also increased the risk of suicide. Being a woman, higher parental education and having a comorbid anxiety disorder were protective factors. We conclude that patients with OCD are at a substantial risk of suicide. Importantly, this risk remains substantial after adjusting for psychiatric comorbidities. Suicide risk should be carefully monitored in patients with OCD. PMID:27431293

Risk of lung cancer associated with domestic use of coal in Xuanwei, China: retrospective cohort study

PubMed Central

Chapman, Robert S; Silverman, Debra T; He, Xinghzhou; Hu, Wei; Vermeulen, Roel; Ning, Bofu; Fraumeni, Joseph F; Rothman, Nathaniel; Lan, Qing

2012-01-01

Objective To estimate the risk of lung cancer associated with the use of different types of coal for household cooking and heating. Setting Xuanwei County, Yunnan Province, China. Design Retrospective cohort study (follow-up 1976-96) comparing mortality from lung cancer between lifelong users of “smoky coal” (bituminous) and “smokeless coal” (anthracite). Participants 27 310 individuals using smoky coal and 9962 individuals using smokeless coal during their entire life. Main outcome measures Primary outcomes were absolute and relative risk of death from lung cancer among users of different types of coal. Unadjusted survival analysis was used to estimate the absolute risk of lung cancer, while Cox regression models compared mortality hazards for lung cancer between smoky and smokeless coal users. Results Lung cancer mortality was substantially higher among users of smoky coal than users of smokeless coal. The absolute risks of lung cancer death before 70 years of age for men and women using smoky coal were 18% and 20%, respectively, compared with less than 0.5% among smokeless coal users of both sexes. Lung cancer alone accounted for about 40% of all deaths before age 60 among individuals using smoky coal. Compared with smokeless coal, use of smoky coal was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer death (for men, hazard ratio 36 (95% confidence interval 20 to 65); for women, 99 (37 to 266)). Conclusions In Xuanwei, the domestic use of smoky coal is associated with a substantial increase in the absolute lifetime risk of developing lung cancer and is likely to represent one of the strongest effects of environmental pollution reported for cancer risk. Use of less carcinogenic types of coal could translate to a substantial reduction of lung cancer risk. PMID:22936785

Risk factors and timing of default from treatment for non-multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Moldova.

PubMed

Jenkins, H E; Ciobanu, A; Plesca, V; Crudu, V; Galusca, I; Soltan, V; Cohen, T

2013-03-01

The Republic of Moldova, in Eastern Europe, has among the highest reported nationwide proportions of tuberculosis (TB) patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) worldwide. Default has been associated with increased mortality and amplification of drug resistance, and may contribute to the high MDR-TB rates in Moldova. To assess risk factors and timing of default from treatment for non-MDR-TB from 2007 to 2010. A retrospective analysis of routine surveillance data on all non-MDR-TB patients reported. A total of 14.7% of non-MDR-TB patients defaulted from treatment during the study period. Independent risk factors for default included sociodemographic factors, such as homelessness, living alone, less formal education and spending substantial time outside Moldova in the year prior to diagnosis; and health-related factors such as human immunodeficiency virus co-infection, greater lung pathology and increasing TB drug resistance. Anti-tuberculosis treatment is usually initiated within an institutional setting in Moldova, and the default risk was highest in the month following the phase of hospitalized treatment (among civilians) and after leaving prison (among those diagnosed while incarcerated). Targeted interventions to increase treatment adherence for patients at highest risk of default, and improving the continuity of care for patients transitioning from institutional to community care may substantially reduce risk of default.

Risk factors and timing of default from treatment for non-multidrug-resistant tuberculosis in Moldova

PubMed Central

Jenkins, Helen E.; Ciobanu, Anisoara; Plesca, Valeriu; Crudu, Valeriu; Galusca, Irina; Soltan, Viorel; Cohen, Ted

2013-01-01

SUMMARY Setting The Republic of Moldova, Eastern Europe, 2007–2010. Moldova has among the highest reported nationwide proportions of TB patients with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) worldwide. Objective To assess risk factors and timing of default from treatment for non-MDR-TB. Default has been associated with increased mortality and amplification of drug resistance and may contribute to the high MDR-TB rates in Moldova. Design A retrospective analysis of routine surveillance data on all non-MDR-TB patients reported. Results 14.7% of non-MDR-TB patients defaulted from treatment during the study period. Independent risk factors for default included sociodemographic factors (i.e. homelessness, living alone, less formal education and spending substantial time outside Moldova in the year prior to diagnosis) and health-related factors (i.e. HIV-coinfection, greater lung pathology, and increasing TB drug resistance). TB treatment is usually initiated within an institutional setting in Moldova and the default risk was highest in the month following the hospitalized treatment phase (among civilians) and after leaving prison (among those diagnosed while incarcerated). Conclusions Targeted interventions to increase treatment adherence for patients at highest risk of default and improving the continuity of care for patients transitioning from institutional to community care may substantially reduce the default risk. PMID:23407226

Through the Eyes of Higher Education Attorneys: How Department Chairs Are Navigating the Waters of Legal Issues and Risk Management

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Hustoles, Carol L. J.

2012-01-01

Legal and risk management issues substantially impact the operations of colleges and universities, which face escalating compliance requirements in an increasingly litigious environment. Failing to assess legal liability issues and to constructively address them with risk management processes create vulnerability to claims and litigation,…

Histological subtypes of ovarian cancer associated with parity and breastfeeding in the prospective Million Women Study.

PubMed

Gaitskell, Kezia; Green, Jane; Pirie, Kirstin; Barnes, Isobel; Hermon, Carol; Reeves, Gillian K; Beral, Valerie

2018-01-15

Ovarian cancer risk is known to be reduced amongst women who have had children, but reported associations with breastfeeding are varied. Few studies have had sufficient power to explore reliably these associations by tumour histotype. In a prospective study of 1.1 million UK women, 8719 developed ovarian cancer during follow-up. Cox regression yielded adjusted relative risks (RRs) overall and by tumour histotype amongst women with different childbearing patterns. Nulliparous women had a 24% greater ovarian cancer risk than women with one child, with significant heterogeneity by histotype (p = 0.01). There was no significant increase in serous tumours, a modest increase in mucinous tumours, but a substantial increase in endometrioid (RR = 1.49, 95% CI: 1.18-1.89) and clear-cell tumours (RR = 1.68, 1.29-2.20). Among parous women, each additional birth was associated with an overall 6% reduction in ovarian cancer risk; this association also varied by histotype (p = 0.0006), with the largest reduction in risk for clear-cell tumours (RR per birth = 0.75, 0.65-0.85, p < 0.001) and weak, if any, effect for endometrioid, high-grade serous, or mucinous tumours. We found little association with age at first or last birth. There was about a 10% risk reduction per 12-months breastfeeding (RR = 0.89, 0.84-0.94, p < 0.001), with no significant heterogeneity by histotype, but statistical power was limited. In this large prospective study, ovarian cancer risk associated with parity varied substantially by tumour histotype. Nulliparity was associated with a substantially greater overall risk than expected from the effect of a single birth, especially for clear cell and endometrioid tumours, perhaps suggesting that infertility is associated with these histotypes. © 2017 The Authors International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.

Saturation of tobacco smoking models and risk of alcohol and tobacco use among adolescents.

PubMed

Taylor, Jennifer E; Conard, Mark W; Koetting O'Byrne, Kristin; Haddock, C Keith; Poston, W S Carlos

2004-09-01

To examine how saturation of an adolescent's environment with models of cigarette smoking (e.g., parents, siblings, friends) affects the probability of tobacco and alcohol use among junior high and high school students. The Health and Smoking Questionnaire was administered to 806 adolescents (182 smokers and 624 nonsmokers; 57.2% female) average age of 15.1 years (SD = 1.6) in a mid-size Midwestern town. The questionnaire contains standardized items in five domains: demographics, smoking status and history, perceptions of risk and risk reduction, risk factors for tobacco use, and parenting style. Risk for smoking or using alcohol increased dramatically as the number of models who smoke increased in an adolescent's environment. For instance, adolescents with one significant other who smoked were nearly four times (OR = 3.76, p <.001) more likely to smoke than someone with no significant others who smoked. However, if an adolescent had four significant others who smoked, they were over 160 times more likely to smoke (OR = 161.25, p <.001). Similar results were found for alcohol use; adolescents who had one significant other who smoked were more than 2.5 (OR = 2.66, p <.001) times more likely to drink than those without smoking models. Adolescents who had four significant other smoking models were 13 times (OR = 13.08, p <.001) more likely to drink. As the number of cigarette smokers in an adolescent's environment increases, risk of tobacco and alcohol use increases substantially. These data suggest that multiple models of tobacco use will substantially increase risk for substance use in adolescents.

Trends in the knowledge, attitudes and practices of travel risk groups towards prevention of malaria: results from the Dutch Schiphol Airport Survey 2002 to 2009

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background Previous studies investigating the travellers’ knowledge, attitudes and practices (KAP) profile indicated an important educational need among those travelling to risk destinations. Initiatives to improve such education should target all groups of travellers, including business travellers, those visiting friends and relatives (VFRs), and elderly travellers. Methods In the years 2002 to 2009, a questionnaire-based survey was conducted at the Dutch Schiphol Airport with the aim to study trends in KAP of travel risk groups towards prevention of malaria. The risk groups last-minute travellers, solo-travellers, business travellers, VFRs and elderly travellers were specifically studied. Results A total of 3,045 respondents were included in the survey. Travellers to destinations with a high risk for malaria had significantly more accurate risk perceptions (knowledge) than travellers to low-risk destinations. The relative risk for malaria in travellers to high-risk destinations was probably mitigated by higher protection rates against malaria as compared with travellers to low risk destinations. There were no significant differences in intended risk-taking behaviour. Trend analyses showed a significant change over time in attitude towards more risk-avoiding behaviour and towards higher protection rates against malaria in travellers to high-risk destinations. The KAP profile of last-minute travellers substantially increased their relative risk for malaria, which contrasts to the slight increase in relative risk of solo travellers, business travellers and VFRs for malaria. Conclusions The results of this sequential cohort survey in Dutch travellers suggest an annual 1.8% increase in protection rates against malaria coinciding with an annual 2.5% decrease in intended risk-seeking behaviour. This improvement may reflect the continuous efforts of travel health advice providers to create awareness and to propagate safe and healthy travel. The KAP profile of last-minute travellers, in particular, substantially increased their relative risk for malaria, underlining the continuous need for personal protective measures and malaria chemoprophylaxis for this risk group. PMID:22642661

Integrating Substance Abuse Treatment and Child Welfare Services: Findings from the Illinois Alcohol and Other Drug Abuse Waiver Demonstration

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Ryan, Joseph P.; Marsh, Jeanne C.; Testa, Mark F.; Louderman, Richard

2006-01-01

Alcohol and other drug abuse is a major problem for children and families involved with public child welfare. Substance abuse compromises appropriate parenting practices and increases the risk of child maltreatment. A substantial proportion of substantiated child abuse and neglect reports involve parental substance abuse. Once in the system,…

The nutrition intervention improved adult human capital and economic productivity.

PubMed

Martorell, Reynaldo; Melgar, Paul; Maluccio, John A; Stein, Aryeh D; Rivera, Juan A

2010-02-01

This article reviews key findings about the long-term impact of a nutrition intervention carried out by the Institute of Nutrition of Central America and Panama from 1969 to 1977. Results from follow-up studies in 1988-89 and 2002-04 show substantial impact on adult human capital and economic productivity. The 1988-89 study showed that adult body size and work capacity increased for those provided improved nutrition through age 3 y, whereas the 2002-04 follow-up showed that schooling was increased for women and reading comprehension and intelligence increased in both men and women. Participants were 26-42 y of age at the time of the 2002-04 follow-up, facilitating the assessment of economic productivity. Wages of men increased by 46% in those provided with improved nutrition through age 2 y. Findings for cardiovascular disease risk factors were heterogeneous; however, they suggest that improved nutrition in early life is unlikely to increase cardiovascular disease risk later in life and may indeed lower risk. In conclusion, the substantial improvement in adult human capital and economic productivity resulting from the nutrition intervention provides a powerful argument for promoting improvements in nutrition in pregnant women and young children.

Alzheimer disease is substantially preventable in the United States -- review of risk factors, therapy, and the prospects for an expert software system.

PubMed

Jansson, Erik T

2005-01-01

Epidemiology studies, including both regional incidence and the analysis of specific risk factors for Alzheimer's disease indicate that substantial prevention of the disease, in the 50-70 percent range, is a practical possibility for the United States. Epidemiology has identified a rich diversity of specific prevention strategies relating to nutrition, dietary supplements, lifestyle, food and environmental toxins, and in some cases medication, many of which have a capacity to reduce Alzheimer's risk by 50 percent or more. The interaction of these risk factors with brain biology is increasingly understood. In contrast, therapeutic strategies for un-prevented Alzheimer's generally prove incapable of delaying disease progression by more than 3-11 months, because extensive brain cell death occurs even in preclinical or mild cases. A public health program aimed at prevention can be fashioned with expert software packages, based on already identified risk factors. Such statistical analysis should allow the prediction of individual and group Alzheimer's risks of sufficient power to instruct the formulation of lifestyle, nutritional and environmental programs to substantially reduce disease incidence. A less satisfactory but complementary alternative is very early disease detection with therapeutic strategies focused on retardation of brain cell death, so that the person dies of another cause before the disease is clinically manifested.

Rising Educational Gradients in Mortality: The Role of Behavioral Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Cutler, David M; Meara, Ellen; Richards-Shubik, Seth; Ruhm, Christopher J

2013-01-01

The long-standing inverse relationship between education and mortality strengthened substantially at the end of the 20th century. This paper examines the reasons for this increase. We show that behavioral risk factors are not of primary importance. Smoking declined more for the better educated, but not enough to explain the trend. Obesity rose at similar rates across education groups, and control of blood pressure and cholesterol increased fairly uniformly as well. Rather, our results show that the mortality returns to risk factors, and conditional on risk factors, the return to education, have grown over time. PMID:21925754

The Relationship of Walking Intensity to Total and Cause-Specific Mortality. Results from the National Walkers’ Health Study

PubMed Central

Williams, Paul T.; Thompson, Paul D.

2013-01-01

Purpose Test whether: 1) walking intensity predicts mortality when adjusted for walking energy expenditure, and 2) slow walking pace (≥24-minute mile) identifies subjects at substantially elevated risk for mortality. Methods Hazard ratios from Cox proportional survival analyses of all-cause and cause-specific mortality vs. usual walking pace (min/mile) in 7,374 male and 31,607 female recreational walkers. Survival times were left censored for age at entry into the study. Other causes of death were treated as a competing risk for the analyses of cause-specific mortality. All analyses were adjusted for sex, education, baseline smoking, prior heart attack, aspirin use, diet, BMI, and walking energy expenditure. Deaths within one year of baseline were excluded. Results The National Death Index identified 1968 deaths during the average 9.4-year mortality surveillance. Each additional minute per mile in walking pace was associated with an increased risk of mortality due to all causes (1.8% increase, P=10-5), cardiovascular diseases (2.4% increase, P=0.001, 637 deaths), ischemic heart disease (2.8% increase, P=0.003, 336 deaths), heart failure (6.5% increase, P=0.001, 36 deaths), hypertensive heart disease (6.2% increase, P=0.01, 31 deaths), diabetes (6.3% increase, P=0.004, 32 deaths), and dementia (6.6% increase, P=0.0004, 44 deaths). Those reporting a pace slower than a 24-minute mile were at increased risk for mortality due to all-causes (44.3% increased risk, P=0.0001), cardiovascular diseases (43.9% increased risk, P=0.03), and dementia (5.0-fold increased risk, P=0.0002) even though they satisfied the current exercise recommendations by walking ≥7.5 metabolic equivalent (MET)-hours per week. Conclusions The risk for mortality: 1) decreases in association with walking intensity, and 2) increases substantially in association for walking pace ≥24 minute mile (equivalent to <400m during a six-minute walk test) even among subjects who exercise regularly. PMID:24260542

Escalating heat-stress mortality risk due to global warming in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

PubMed

Ahmadalipour, Ali; Moradkhani, Hamid

2018-08-01

Climate change will substantially exacerbate extreme temperature and heatwaves. The impacts will be more intense across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), a region mostly characterized by hot and arid climate, already intolerable for human beings in many parts. In this study, daily climate data from 17 fine-resolution Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are acquired to calculate wet-bulb temperature and investigate the mortality risk for people aged over 65 years caused by excessive heat stress across the MENA region. Spatially adaptive temperature thresholds are implemented for quantifying the mortality risk, and the analysis is conducted for the historical period of 1951-2005 and two future scenarios of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 during the 2006-2100 period. Results show that the mortality risk will increase in distant future to 8-20 times higher than that of the historical period if no climate change mitigation is implemented. The coastal regions of the Red sea, Persian Gulf, and Mediterranean Sea indicate substantial increase in mortality risk. Nonetheless, the risk ratio will be limited to 3-7 times if global warming is limited to 2 °C. Climate change planning and adaptation is imperative for mitigating heat-related mortality risk across the region. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Physiological and Psychological Challenges of Increasing Physical Activity and Exercise in Patients at Risk of Diabetic Foot Ulcers: A Critical Review

PubMed Central

Crews, Ryan T.; Schneider, Kristin L.; Yalla, Sai V.; Reeves, Neil D.; Vileikyte, Loretta

2017-01-01

Obesity and a sedentary lifestyle are common challenges among individuals at risk of diabetic foot ulcers (DFUs). While substantial research exists on physical activity interventions in adults with diabetes, those at greatest risk for foot ulceration were often excluded or not well-represented. Both at-risk patients and their clinicians may be hesitant to increase physical activity due to their perception of DFU risks. Physical activity is not contraindicated for those at risk of DFU, yet patients at risk present with unique barriers to initiating increases in physical activity. This review focuses upon the physiological and psychological challenges of increasing physical activity and exercise in patients at risk of DFUs. Offloading, diabetic peripheral neuropathy, depression, pain, self-efficacy and social support, DFU risk-specific beliefs and emotions, and research to date on exercise interventions in this population are all discussed. Additionally, recommendations for implementing and researching physical activity interventions for individuals at risk for DFU are provided. PMID:27155091

Minnesota Kids: A Closer Look. 1996 Data Book.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kids Count Minnesota, Minneapolis.

Minnesota KIDS COUNT focuses on key risk indicators for children and describes the condition of children in each of Minnesota's 87 counties. According to this second annual report, another generation of children is at risk of growing up with decreasing resources, evidenced by increasing arrest rates for violent crimes and substantiated reports of…

Risk Factors and Therapeutic Targets in Pancreatic Cancer

PubMed Central

Wörmann, Sonja Maria; Algül, Hana

2013-01-01

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is one of the most challenging tumor entities worldwide, characterized as a highly aggressive disease with dismal overall prognosis and an incidence rate equalling mortality rate. Over the last decade, substantial progress has been made to define the morphological changes and key genetic events in pancreatic carcinogenesis. And yet, it is still unclear what factors trigger PC. Some risk factors appear to be associated with sex, age, race/ethnicity, or other rare genetic conditions. Additionally, modifying factors such as smoking, obesity, diabetes, occupational risk factors, etc., increase the potential for acquiring genetic mutations that may result in PC. Another hallmark of PC is its poor response to radio- and chemo-therapy. Current chemotherapeutic regimens could not provide substantial survival benefit with a clear increase in overall survival. Recently, several new approaches to significantly improve the clinical outcome of PC have been described involving downstream signaling cascades desmoplasia and stromal response as well as tumor microenvironment, immune response, vasculature, and angiogenesis. This review summarizes major risk factors for PC and tries to illuminate relevant targets considerable for new therapeutic approaches. PMID:24303367

Relationship of life-course drinking patterns to diabetes, heart problems, and hypertension among those 40 and older in the 2005 U.S. National Alcohol Survey.

PubMed

Kerr, William C; Ye, Yu

2010-07-01

The goal of this study was to estimate relationships between life-course drinking patterns and the risks of self-reported diabetes, heart problems, and hypertension. Respondents to the 2005 National Alcohol Survey, age 40 and older, reported ever having a doctor or health professional diagnose each of the health-problem outcomes. Retrospective earlier-life drinking patterns were characterized by lifetime abstention and the frequency of 5+ drinking days (i.e., days on which five or more drinks were consumed) in the respondent's teens, 20s, and 30s. Past-year drinking patterns were measured through intake volume and 5+ days. Potential confounders in the domains of demographics, socioeconomic resources, and other health-risk variables-that is, depression, distress, sense of coherence, body mass index, tobacco use, marijuana use, childhood abuse, and family history of alcohol problems--were controlled through propensity-score matching. After matching, lifetime abstainers were found to be at increased risk of diabetes compared with both lifetime and current moderate drinkers. Exdrinkers were found to be at increased risk of diabetes, heart problems, and hypertension. Higher volume drinkers without monthly 5+ days were found to be at reduced risk of diabetes relative to moderate-volume current drinkers. Heavy-occasion drinkers were found to be at increased risk of hypertension. Regular lower quantity alcohol intake may be protective against adult onset of diabetes, but no evidence of protection from heart problems or hypertension was found. Both life course-defined and past year-defined drinking groups exhibit substantial clustering of confounding risk variables, indicating the need for modeling strategies like propensity-score matching. Increased risks among exdrinkers suggest a substantial "sick-quitter" effect.

Sleep Duration and Diabetes Risk: Population Trends and Potential Mechanisms.

PubMed

Grandner, Michael A; Seixas, Azizi; Shetty, Safal; Shenoy, Sundeep

2016-11-01

Sleep is important for regulating many physiologic functions that relate to metabolism. Because of this, there is substantial evidence to suggest that sleep habits and sleep disorders are related to diabetes risk. In specific, insufficient sleep duration and/or sleep restriction in the laboratory, poor sleep quality, and sleep disorders such as insomnia and sleep apnea have all been associated with diabetes risk. This research spans epidemiologic and laboratory studies. Both physiologic mechanisms such as insulin resistance, decreased leptin, and increased ghrelin and inflammation and behavioral mechanisms such as increased food intake, impaired decision-making, and increased likelihood of other behavioral risk factors such as smoking, sedentary behavior, and alcohol use predispose to both diabetes and obesity, which itself is an important diabetes risk factor. This review describes the evidence linking sleep and diabetes risk at the population and laboratory levels.

The Interplay between Interpersonal Stress and Psychological Intimate Partner Violence over Time for Young At-Risk Couples

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Shortt, Joann Wu; Capaldi, Deborah M.; Kim, Hyoun K.; Tiberio, Stacey S.

2013-01-01

The substantial number of young people in romantic relationships that involve intimate partner violence, a situation deleterious to physical and mental health, has resulted in increased attention to understanding the links between risk factors and course of violence. The current study examined couples' interpersonal stress related to not liking…

Family History as an Indicator of Risk for Reading Disability.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Volger, George P.; And Others

1984-01-01

Self-reported reading ability of parents of 174 reading-disabled children and of 182 controls was used to estimate the probability that a child will become reading disabled. Using Bayesian inverse probability analysis, it was found that the risk for reading disability is increased substantially if either parent has had difficulty in learning to…

Unresolved Maternal Attachment Representations, Disrupted Maternal Behavior and Disorganized Attachment in Infancy: Links to Toddler Behavior Problems

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Madigan, Sheri; Moran, Greg; Schuengel, Carlo; Pederson, David R.; Otten, Roy

2007-01-01

Background: Attachment theory's original formulation was substantially driven by Bowlby's (1969/1982) quest for a meaningful model of the development of psychopathology. Bowlby posited that aberrant experiences of parenting increase the child's risk of psychopathological outcomes, and that these risks are mediated by the quality of the attachment…

Cardiovascular risk across the histological spectrum and the clinical manifestations of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: An update

PubMed Central

Athyros, Vasilios G; Tziomalos, Konstantinos; Katsiki, Niki; Doumas, Michael; Karagiannis, Asterios; Mikhailidis, Dimitri P

2015-01-01

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is considered to be an independent cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor. However, simple steatosis has a benign clinical course without excess mortality. In contrast, the advanced form of NAFLD, non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with liver fibrosis increases mortality by approximately 70%, due to an increase in CVD mortality by approximately 300%. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) may be caused by NAFLD/NASH and it substantially increases CVD risk, especially in the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Moreover, CKD may trigger NAFLD/NASH deterioration in a vicious cycle. NAFLD/NASH is also related to increased arterial stiffness (AS), an independent CVD risk factor that further raises CVD risk. Diagnosis of advanced liver fibrosis (mainly by simple non-invasive tests), CKD, and increased AS should be made early in the course of NAFLD and treated appropriately. Lifestyle measures and statin treatment may help resolve NAFLD/NASH and beneficially affect the CVD risk factors mentioned above. PMID:26078558

Do the health benefits of cycling outweigh the risks?

PubMed

Johan de Hartog, Jeroen; Boogaard, Hanna; Nijland, Hans; Hoek, Gerard

2010-08-01

Although from a societal point of view a modal shift from car to bicycle may have beneficial health effects due to decreased air pollution emissions, decreased greenhouse gas emissions, and increased levels of physical activity, shifts in individual adverse health effects such as higher exposure to air pollution and risk of a traffic accident may prevail. We describe whether the health benefits from the increased physical activity of a modal shift for urban commutes outweigh the health risks. We have summarized the literature for air pollution, traffic accidents, and physical activity using systematic reviews supplemented with recent key studies. We quantified the impact on all-cause mortality when 500,000 people would make a transition from car to bicycle for short trips on a daily basis in the Netherlands. We have expressed mortality impacts in life-years gained or lost, using life table calculations. For individuals who shift from car to bicycle, we estimated that beneficial effects of increased physical activity are substantially larger (3-14 months gained) than the potential mortality effect of increased inhaled air pollution doses (0.8-40 days lost) and the increase in traffic accidents (5-9 days lost). Societal benefits are even larger because of a modest reduction in air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions and traffic accidents. On average, the estimated health benefits of cycling were substantially larger than the risks relative to car driving for individuals shifting their mode of transport.

Economics of wildfire management: The development and application of suppression expenditure models

Treesearch

Michael S. Hand; Krista M. Gebert; Jingjing Liang; David E. Calkin; Matthew P. Thompson; Mo Zhou

2014-01-01

In the United States, increased wildland fire activity over the last 15 years has resulted in increased pressure to balance the cost, benefits, and risks of wildfire management. Amid increased public scrutiny and a highly variable wildland fire environment, a substantial body of research has developed to study factors affecting the cost-effectiveness of wildfire...

Information overload; a response to "Turn down for what? Patient outcomes associated with declining increased infectious risk kidneys."

PubMed

Singh, Pooja; Yadav, Anju; Shah, Ashesh P; Frank, Adam M

2018-04-30

"Donors are heroes" is a transplant axiom. Unfortunately, many history elements that go into labeling a donor public health service-high risk (PHS-HR), i.e. increased risk for transmitting HIV, Hepatitis C (HCV) and Hepatitis B (HBV), chip away at this dictum due to associated stigma. We read the article by Bowring et al 1 and applaud their work that showed accepting PHS-HR kidneys conferred substantial survival advantage. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Evidences Suggesting Involvement of Viruses in Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma

PubMed Central

Gupta, Kanupriya; Metgud, Rashmi

2013-01-01

Oral cancer is one of the most common cancers and it constitutes a major health problem particularly in developing countries. Oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) represents the most frequent of all oral neoplasms. Several risk factors have been well characterized to be associated with OSCC with substantial evidences. The etiology of OSCC is complex and involves many factors. The most clearly defined potential factors are smoking and alcohol, which substantially increase the risk of OSCC. However, despite this clear association, a substantial proportion of patients develop OSCC without exposure to them, emphasizing the role of other risk factors such as genetic susceptibility and oncogenic viruses. Some viruses are strongly associated with OSCC while the association of others is less frequent and may depend on cofactors for their carcinogenic effects. Therefore, the exact role of viruses must be evaluated with care in order to improve the diagnosis and treatment of OSCC. Although a viral association within a subset of OSCC has been shown, the molecular and histopathological characteristics of these tumors have yet to be clearly defined. PMID:24455418

16 CFR 1115.12 - Information which should be reported; evaluating substantial product hazard.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... considered in determining whether a defect creates a substantial risk of injury. These factors are set forth... reportable noncompliance, defect or unreasonable risk. The obligation to report arises upon receipt of... could create a substantial product hazard, or unreasonable risk of serious injury or death. Thus, an...

16 CFR 1115.12 - Information which should be reported; evaluating substantial product hazard.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... considered in determining whether a defect creates a substantial risk of injury. These factors are set forth... reportable noncompliance, defect or unreasonable risk. The obligation to report arises upon receipt of... could create a substantial product hazard, or unreasonable risk of serious injury or death. Thus, an...

Sleep Duration and Diabetes Risk: Population Trends and Potential Mechanisms

PubMed Central

Grandner, Michael A.; Seixas, Azizi; Shetty, Safal; Shenoy, Sundeep

2016-01-01

Sleep is important for regulating many physiologic functions that relate to metabolism. Because of this, there is substantial evidence to suggest that sleep habits and sleep disorders are related to diabetes risk. In specific, insufficient sleep duration and/or sleep restriction in the laboratory, poor sleep quality, and sleep disorders such as insomnia and sleep apnea have all been associated with diabetes risk. This research spans epidemiologic and laboratory studies. Both physiologic mechanisms such as insulin resistance, decreased leptin, and increased ghrelin and inflammation and behavioral mechanisms such as increased food intake, impaired decision-making, and increased likelihood of other behavioral risk factors such as smoking, sedentary behavior, and alcohol use predispose to both diabetes and obesity, which itself is an important diabetes risk factor. This review describes the evidence linking sleep and diabetes risk at the population and laboratory levels. PMID:27664039

Spatio-temporal changes in agrochemical inputs and the risk assessment before and after the Grain-For-Green Policy in China.

PubMed

Wang, Xiuhong

2013-02-01

China's Grain-For-Green Policy (GFGP) of returning marginal cropland to forest or grassland is one of the most important large-scale initiatives to combat land degradation in its ecologically vulnerable regions. In order to maintain and increase crop production from decreasing areas of cropland, substantial spatio-temporal changes in agrochemical inputs have occurred, which have strongly influenced the ecological and environmental status of land in China. Based on the agrochemical inputs (chemical fertilizer, pesticide, plastic sheeting, and agricultural diesel oil) at the provincial level between 1993 and 2009, cluster analysis and gravity center modeling were used to trace these spatio-temporal changes. A regional comparative study was also undertaken to investigate the changes in the relative size of agrochemical inputs in the eastern, central, and western regions of China. It was found that the agrochemical inputs increased considerably at the nation level after the GFGP, which in order of increasing rate were: plastic sheeting > agricultural diesel oil > pesticide > chemical fertilizer. The gravity centers of agrochemical inputs moved substantially towards the northwest or west during the latter period of GFGP and regional comparative analysis showed that the agrochemical inputs increased substantially in the western region between 2004 and 2009. The ecological degradation caused by the expansion of the area devoted to crop production in the western region and the potential risk of agricultural non-point pollution caused by the increasing agrochemical inputs are the main factors restricting this area's sustainable development.

Insights from the Global Longitudinal Study of Osteoporosis in Women (GLOW).

PubMed

Watts, Nelson B

2014-07-01

GLOW is an observational, longitudinal, practice-based cohort study of osteoporosis in 60,393 women aged ≥55 years in 10 countries on three continents. In this Review, we present insights from the first 3 years of the study. Despite cost analyses being frequently based on spine and hip fractures, we found that nonvertebral, nonhip fractures were around five times more common and doubled the use of health-care resources compared with hip and spine fractures combined. Fractures not at the four so-called major sites in FRAX(®) (upper arm, forearm, hip and clinical vertebral fractures) account for >40% of all fractures. The risk of fracture is increased by various comorbidities, such as Parkinson disease, multiple sclerosis and lung and heart disease. Obesity, although thought to be protective against all fractures, substantially increased the risk of fractures in the ankle or lower leg. Simple assessment by age plus fracture history has good predictive value for all fractures, but risk profiles differ for first and subsequent fractures. Fractures diminish quality of life as much or more than diabetes mellitus, arthritis and lung disease, yet women substantially underestimate their own fracture risk. Treatment rates in patients at high risk of fracture are below those recommended but might be too frequent in women at low risk. Comorbidities and the limits of current therapeutic regimens jeopardize the efficacy of drugs; new regimens should be explored for severe cases.

Stream bank and sediment movement associated with 2008 flooding, South Fork Iowa River

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Stream bank erosion can cause substantial damage to riparian systems and impact the use of water downstream. Risks of bank erosion increase during extreme flood events, and frequencies of extreme events may be increasing under changing climate. We assessed bank erosion within the South Fork Iowa Riv...

Cancer risks in naval divers with multiple exposures to carcinogens.

PubMed Central

Richter, Elihu D; Friedman, Lee S; Tamir, Yuval; Berman, Tamar; Levy, Or; Westin, Jerome B; Peretz, Tamar

2003-01-01

We investigated risks for cancer and the case for a cause-effect relationship in five successive cohorts of naval commando divers (n = 682) with prolonged underwater exposures (skin, gastrointestinal tract, and airways) to many toxic compounds in the Kishon River, Israel's most polluted waterway, from 1948 to 1995. Releases of industrial, ship, and agricultural effluents in the river increased substantially, fish yields decreased, and toxic damage to marine organisms increased. Among the divers (16,343 person-years follow-up from 18 years of age to year 2000), the observed/expected ratio for all tumors was 2.29 (p<0.01). Risks increased in cohorts first diving after 1960 compared to risks in earlier cohorts, notably for hematolymphopoietic, central nervous system, gastrointestinal, and skin cancer; induction periods were often brief. The findings suggest that the increases in risk for cancer and short induction periods resulted from direct contact with and absorption of multiple toxic compounds. Early toxic effects in marine life predicted later risks for cancer in divers. PMID:12676624

Risk of low birth weight and stillbirth associated with indoor air pollution from solid fuel use in developing countries.

PubMed

Pope, Daniel P; Mishra, Vinod; Thompson, Lisa; Siddiqui, Amna Rehana; Rehfuess, Eva A; Weber, Martin; Bruce, Nigel G

2010-01-01

Exposure to indoor air pollution from solid fuel use (IAP) has been linked to approximately 1.5 million annual deaths (World Health Organization (http://www.who.int/indoorair/publications/fuelforlife/en/index.html)) due to acute lower respiratory infections in children <5 years of age and chronic obstructive lung disease and lung cancer in adults. Emerging evidence suggests that IAP increases the risk of other conditions, including adverse pregnancy outcomes. To establish the relation of IAP with birth weight and stillbirth, systematic reviews with meta-analyses were conducted. Studies reporting outcomes of mean birth weight, percentage of low birth weight (LBW; <2,500 g), and/or stillbirth and assessing IAP were identified. Five LBW studies (of 982) and 3 stillbirth studies (of 171) met inclusion criteria for the reviews. Fixed-effect meta-analyses (I(2) = 0%) found that IAP was associated with increased risk of percentage LBW (odds ratio = 1.38, 95% confidence interval: 1.25, 1.52) and stillbirth (odds ratio = 1.51, 95% confidence interval: 1.23, 1.85) and reduced mean birth weight (-95.6 g, 95% confidence interval: -68.5, -124.7). Evidence from secondhand smoke, ambient air pollution, and animal studies--and suggested plausible mechanisms--substantiate these associations. Because a majority of pregnant women in developing countries, where rates of LBW and stillbirth are high, are heavily exposed to IAP, increased relative risk translates into substantial population attributable risks of 21% (LBW) and 26% (stillbirth).

Solar geoengineering could substantially reduce climate risks—A research hypothesis for the next decade

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Keith, David W.; Irvine, Peter J.

2016-11-01

We offer a hypothesis that if solar geoengineering (SG) were deployed to offset half of the increase in global-mean temperature from the date of deployment using a technology and deployment method chosen to approximate a reduction in the solar constant then, over the 21st century, it would (a) substantially reduce the global aggregate risks of climate change, (b) without making any country worse off, and (c) with the aggregate risks from side-effects being small in comparison to the reduction in climate risks. We do not set out to demonstrate this hypothesis; rather we propose it with the goal of stimulating a strategic engagement of the SG research community with policy-relevant questions. We elaborate seven sub-hypotheses on the effects of our scenario for key risks of climate change that could be assessed in future modeling work. As an example, we provide a defence of one of our sub-hypotheses, that our scenario of SG would reduce the risk of drought in dry regions, but also identify issues that may undermine this sub-hypothesis and how future work could resolve this question. SG cannot substitute for emissions mitigation but it may be a useful supplement. It is our hope that scientific and technical research over the next decade focuses more closely on well-articulated variants of the key policy-relevant question: could SG be designed and deployed in such a way that it could substantially and equitably reduce climate risks?

The New "Obstetrical Dilemma": Stunting, Obesity and the Risk of Obstructed Labour.

PubMed

Wells, Jonathan C K

2017-04-01

The "obstetrical dilemma" refers to the tight fit between maternal pelvic dimensions and neonatal size at delivery. Most interest traditionally focused on its generic significance for humans, for example our neonatal altriciality and our complex and lengthy birth process. Across contemporary populations, however, the obstetrical dilemma manifests substantial variability, illustrated by differences in the incidence of cephalo-pelvic disproportion, obstructed labour and cesarean section. Beyond accounting for 12% of maternal mortality worldwide, obstructed labour also imposes a huge burden of maternal morbidity, in particular through debilitating birth injuries. This article explores how the double burden of malnutrition and the global obesity epidemic may be reshaping the obstetrical dilemma. First, short maternal stature increases the risk of obstructed labour, while early age at marriage also risks pregnancy before pelvic growth is completed. Second, maternal obesity increases the risk of macrosomic offspring. In some populations, short maternal stature may also promote the risk of gestational diabetes, another risk factor for macrosomic offspring. These nutritional influences are furthermore sensitive to social values relating to issues such as maternal and child nutrition, gender inequality and age at marriage. Secular trends in maternal obesity are substantially greater than those in adult stature, especially in low- and middle-income countries. The association between the dual burden of malnutrition and the obstetrical dilemma is therefore expected to increase, because the obesity epidemic is emerging faster than stunting is being resolved. However, we currently lack objective population-specific data on the association between maternal obesity and birth injuries. Anat Rec, 300:716-731, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Refined assessment of associations between drinking water residence time and emergency department visits for gastrointestinal illness in Metro Atlanta, Georgia.

PubMed

Levy, Karen; Klein, Mitchel; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt; Panwhar, Samina; Huttinger, Alexandra; Tolbert, Paige; Moe, Christine

2016-08-01

Recent outbreak investigations suggest that a substantial proportion of waterborne disease outbreaks are attributable to water distribution system issues. In this analysis, we examine the relationship between modeled water residence time (WRT), a proxy for probability of microorganism intrusion into the distribution system, and emergency department visits for gastrointestinal (GI) illness for two water utilities in Metro Atlanta, USA during 1993-2004. We also examine the association between proximity to the nearest distribution system node, based on patients' residential address, and GI illness using logistic regression models. Comparing long (≥90th percentile) with intermediate WRTs (11th to 89th percentile), we observed a modestly increased risk for GI illness for Utility 1 (OR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.02-1.13), which had substantially higher average WRT than Utility 2, for which we found no increased risk (OR = 0.98, 95% CI: 0.94-1.02). Examining finer, 12-hour increments of WRT, we found that exposures >48 h were associated with increased risk of GI illness, and exposures of >96 h had the strongest associations, although none of these associations was statistically significant. Our results suggest that utilities might consider reducing WRTs to <2-3 days or adding booster disinfection in areas with longer WRT, to minimize risk of GI illness from water consumption.

Refined Assessment of Associations between Drinking Water Residence Time and Emergency Department Visits for Gastrointestinal Illness in Metro Atlanta, Georgia

PubMed Central

Levy, Karen; Klein, Mitchell; Sarnat, Stefanie Ebelt; Panwhar, Samina; Huttinger, Alexandra; Tolbert, Paige; Moe, Christine

2017-01-01

Recent outbreak investigations suggest that a substantial proportion of waterborne disease outbreaks are attributable to water distribution system issues. In this analysis, we examine the relationship between modeled water residence time (WRT), a proxy for probability of microorganism intrusion into the distribution system, and emergency department visits for gastrointestinal (GI) illness for two water utilities in Metro Atlanta, USA during 1993–2004. We also examine the association between proximity to the nearest distribution system node, based on patients' residential address, and GI illness using logistic regression models. Comparing long (≥90th percentile) to intermediate WRTs (11th to 89th percentile), we observed a modestly increased risk for GI illness for Utility 1 (OR=1.07, 95% CI: 1.02–1.13), which had substantially higher average WRT than Utility 2, for which we found no increased risk (OR=0.98, 95% CI: 0.94–1.02). Examining finer, 12-hour increments of WRT, we found that exposures >48 hrs were associated with increased risk of GI illness, and exposures of >96 hrs had the strongest associations, although none of these associations were statistically significant. Our results suggest that utilities might consider reducing WRTs to <2–3 days or add booster disinfection in areas with longer WRT, to minimize risk of GI illness from water consumption. PMID:27441862

Mechanical Limits to Size in Wave-Swept Organisms.

DTIC Science & Technology

1983-11-10

complanata, the probability of destruction and the size- specific increase in the risk of destruction are both substantial. It is conjectured that the...barnacle, Semibalanus cariosus) the size-specific increment in the risk of destruction is small and the size limits imposed on these organisms are...constructed here provides an experimental approach to examining many potential effects of environmental stress caused by flowing water. For example, these

Sudden cardiac death: epidemiology and risk factors

PubMed Central

Adabag, A. Selcuk; Luepker, Russell V.; Roger, Véronique L.; Gersh, Bernard J.

2016-01-01

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is an important public-health problem with multiple etiologies, risk factors, and changing temporal trends. Substantial progress has been made over the past few decades in identifying markers that confer increased SCD risk at the population level. However, the quest for predicting the high-risk individual who could be a candidate for an implantable cardioverter-defibrillator, or other therapy, continues. In this article, we review the incidence, temporal trends, and triggers of SCD, and its demographic, clinical, and genetic risk factors. We also discuss the available evidence supporting the use of public-access defibrillators. PMID:20142817

The Landscape Epidemiology of Seasonal Clustering of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (H5N1) in Domestic Poultry in Africa, Europe and Asia.

PubMed

Walsh, M G; Amstislavski, P; Greene, A; Haseeb, M A

2017-10-01

Highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 (H5N1) has contributed to substantial economic loss for backyard and large-scale poultry farmers each year since 1997. While the distribution of domestic H5N1 outbreaks across Africa, Europe and Asia is extensive, those features of the landscape conferring greatest risk remain uncertain. Furthermore, the extent to which influential landscape features may vary by season has been inadequately described. The current investigation used World Organization for Animal Health surveillance data to (i) delineate areas at greatest risk of H5N1 epizootics among domestic poultry, (ii) identify those abiotic and biotic features of the landscape associated with outbreak risk and (iii) examine patterns of epizootic clustering by season. Inhomogeneous point process models were used to predict the intensity of H5N1 outbreaks and describe the spatial dependencies between them. During October through March, decreasing precipitation, increasing isothermality and the presence of H5N1 in wild birds were significantly associated with the increased risk of domestic H5N1 epizootics. Conversely, increasing precipitation and decreasing isothermality were associated with the increased risk during April through September. Increasing temperature during the coldest quarter, domestic poultry density and proximity to surface water were associated with the increased risk of domestic outbreaks throughout the year. Spatial dependencies between outbreaks appeared to vary seasonally, with substantial clustering at small and large scales identified during October through March even after accounting for inhomogeneity due to landscape factors. In contrast, during April to September, H5N1 outbreaks exhibited no clustering at small scale once accounting for landscape factors. This investigation has identified seasonal differences in risk and clustering patterns of H5N1 outbreaks in domestic poultry and may suggest strategies in high-risk areas with features amenable to intervention such as controlling domestic bird movement in areas of high poultry density or preventing contact between poultry and wild birds and/or surface water features. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Patients With Diabetes and Chronic Liver Disease Are at Increased Risk for Overall Mortality: A Population Study From the United States

PubMed Central

Stepanova, Maria; Clement, Stephen; Wong, Robert; Saab, Sammy; Ahmed, Aijaz

2017-01-01

IN BRIEF Chronic liver disease (CLD) and type 2 diabetes have both been linked to increased morbidity and mortality. In this study, the impact of CLD and diabetes on all-cause mortality was quantified at the population level using U.S. population data. Both type 2 diabetes and CLD were found to be independently associated with increased mortality (age-adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.98 and 1.37 for diabetes and CLD, respectively), and having both diabetes and CLD substantially increased the risk of mortality (aHR 2.41). PMID:28442821

A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion

PubMed Central

Oakleaf, James R.; Kennedy, Christina M.; Baruch-Mordo, Sharon; West, Paul C.; Gerber, James S.; Jarvis, Larissa; Kiesecker, Joseph

2015-01-01

A growing and more affluent human population is expected to increase the demand for resources and to accelerate habitat modification, but by how much and where remains unknown. Here we project and aggregate global spatial patterns of expected urban and agricultural expansion, conventional and unconventional oil and gas, coal, solar, wind, biofuels and mining development. Cumulatively, these threats place at risk 20% of the remaining global natural lands (19.68 million km2) and could result in half of the world’s biomes becoming >50% converted while doubling and tripling the extent of land converted in South America and Africa, respectively. Regionally, substantial shifts in land conversion could occur in Southern and Western South America, Central and Eastern Africa, and the Central Rocky Mountains of North America. With only 5% of the Earth’s at-risk natural lands under strict legal protection, estimating and proactively mitigating multi-sector development risk is critical for curtailing the further substantial loss of nature. PMID:26445282

Pressure sores and hip fractures.

PubMed

Haleem, S; Heinert, G; Parker, M J

2008-02-01

Development of pressure sores during hospital admission causes morbidity and distress to the patient, increases strain on nursing resources, delaying discharge and possibly increasing mortality. A hip fracture in elderly patients is a known high-risk factor for development of pressure sores. We aimed to determine the current incidence of pressure sores and identify those factors which were associated with an increased risk of pressure sores. We retrospectively analysed prospectively collected data of 4654 consecutive patients admitted to a single unit. One hundred and seventy-eight (3.8%) of our patients developed pressure sores. Patient factors that increased the risk of pressure sores were increased age, diabetes mellitus, a lower mental test score, a lower mobility score, a higher ASA score, lower admission haemoglobin and an intra-operative drop in blood pressure. The risk was higher in patients with an extracapsular neck of femur fracture and patients with an increased time interval between admission to hospital and surgery. Our studies indicate that while co-morbidities constitute a substantial risk in an elderly population, the increase in incidence of pressure sores can be reduced by minimising delays to surgery.

Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea level rise: Past and future

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari, Hamed R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F.; Feldman, David L.; Sweet, William; Matthew, Richard A.; Luke, Adam

2015-11-01

Mean sea level has risen tenfold in recent decades compared to the most recent millennia, posing a serious threat for population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. An increase in the frequency of nuisance (minor) flooding has also been reported due to the reduced gap between high tidal datums and flood stage, and the rate of sea level rise (SLR) is expected to increase based on current trajectories of anthropogenic activities and greenhouse gases emissions. Nuisance flooding (NF), however nondestructive, causes public inconvenience, business interruption, and substantial economic losses due to impacts such as road closures and degradation of infrastructure. It also portends an increased risk in severe floods. Here we report substantial increases in NF along the coasts of United States due to SLR over the past decades. We then take projected near-term (2030) and midterm (2050) SLR under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs), 2.6 and 8.5, to estimate the increase in NF. The results suggest that on average, - 80 ± 10% local SLR causes the median of the NF distribution to increase by 55 ± 35% in 2050 under RCP8.5. The projected increase in NF will have significant socio-economic impacts and pose public health risks in coastal regions.

Chemoradiation May Help Some Patients with Bladder Cancer Avoid Radical Surgery

Cancer.gov

Researchers in the United Kingdom have found that adding chemotherapy to radiation therapy as a treatment for bladder cancer may reduce the risk of a recurrence more than radiation alone, without causing a substantial increase in side effects.

Physiological and psychological challenges of increasing physical activity and exercise in patients at risk of diabetic foot ulcers: a critical review.

PubMed

Crews, Ryan T; Schneider, Kristin L; Yalla, Sai V; Reeves, Neil D; Vileikyte, Loretta

2016-11-01

Obesity and a sedentary lifestyle are common challenges among individuals at risk of diabetic foot ulcers. While substantial research exists on physical activity interventions in adults with diabetes, those at greatest risk for foot ulceration were often excluded or not well represented. Both at-risk patients and their clinicians may be hesitant to increase physical activity because of their perception of diabetic foot ulcer risks. Physical activity is not contraindicated for those at risk of diabetic foot ulcer, yet patients at risk present with unique barriers to initiating increases in physical activity. This review focuses upon the physiological and psychological challenges of increasing physical activity and exercise in patients at risk of diabetic foot ulcers. Offloading, diabetic peripheral neuropathy, depression, pain, self-efficacy and social support, diabetic foot ulcer risk-specific beliefs and emotions, and research to date on exercise interventions in this population are all discussed. Additionally, recommendations for implementing and researching physical activity interventions for individuals at risk for diabetic foot ulcer are provided. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

7 CFR 1710.112 - Loan feasibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... other energy sources to prevent substantial load loss while providing satisfactory service to its consumers. (4) Risks of possible loss of substantial loads from large consumers or from load concentrations in particular industries will not substantially impair loan feasibility. (5) Risks of loss of...

7 CFR 1710.112 - Loan feasibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2012 CFR

2012-01-01

... other energy sources to prevent substantial load loss while providing satisfactory service to its consumers. (4) Risks of possible loss of substantial loads from large consumers or from load concentrations in particular industries will not substantially impair loan feasibility. (5) Risks of loss of...

7 CFR 1710.112 - Loan feasibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... other energy sources to prevent substantial load loss while providing satisfactory service to its consumers. (4) Risks of possible loss of substantial loads from large consumers or from load concentrations in particular industries will not substantially impair loan feasibility. (5) Risks of loss of...

7 CFR 1710.112 - Loan feasibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2013 CFR

2013-01-01

... other energy sources to prevent substantial load loss while providing satisfactory service to its consumers. (4) Risks of possible loss of substantial loads from large consumers or from load concentrations in particular industries will not substantially impair loan feasibility. (5) Risks of loss of...

7 CFR 1710.112 - Loan feasibility.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2014 CFR

2014-01-01

... other energy sources to prevent substantial load loss while providing satisfactory service to its consumers. (4) Risks of possible loss of substantial loads from large consumers or from load concentrations in particular industries will not substantially impair loan feasibility. (5) Risks of loss of...

Cohort Study on Predictors of Need for Nursing Care in Alzheimer's Disease: An Analysis of Healthcare Data.

PubMed

Brüggenjürgen, Bernd; Andersohn, Frank; Burkowitz, Jörg; Ezzat, Nadja; Gaudig, Maren; Willich, Stefan N

2016-10-18

The individual and societal burden of Alzheimer's disease (AD) is substantial. Identifying relevant factors deteriorating AD and inducing need for nursing care would be of high relevance for healthcare planning. The main objective of this study was the identification of predictors of first assignment of a level of long-term care in AD, used as an approximation for disease progression. In a retrospective cohort study using data from a large German statutory health and long-term care insurance (SHI) company, co-morbidities and drug exposure were evaluated with respect to their predictive value for disease progression (first day the amount of daily nursing care exceeded 1.5 hours). Time to disease progression was modeled using COX-proportional hazard regression with stepwise selection of predictor variables. The risk of nursing care need increased substantially with increasing age. Number of hospitalizations and number of different drugs used were significant indicators for progression, whereas outpatient visits were associated with a reduced need for care. Gender did not indicate significant influence on progression. Malignant neoplasms of ill-defined, secondary, and unspecified sites, malnutrition, renal failure, and injuries increased the risk of need for nursing care most significantly. Among prescribed drugs, significant increased risks were associated with drugs used in diabetes, preparations for treatment of wounds and ulcers, antiseptics and disinfectants, and analgesics. Physical comorbidities are relevant contributors to an increase in need for nursing care. Some medical predicting conditions may be linked to cognition, while others may be directly linked to demand for care. AD patients with these comorbidities should be monitored with special attention, as they may be under an increased risk of care dependency.

Meat consumption and cancer risk: a critical review of published meta-analyses.

PubMed

Lippi, Giuseppe; Mattiuzzi, Camilla; Cervellin, Gianfranco

2016-01-01

Dietary habits play a substantial role for increasing or reducing cancer risk. We performed a critical review of scientific literature, to describe the findings of meta-analyses that explored the association between meat consumption and cancer risk. Overall, 42 eligible meta-analyses were included in this review, in which meat consumption was assumed from sheer statistics. Convincing association was found between larger intake of red meat and cancer, especially with colorectal, lung, esophageal and gastric malignancies. Increased consumption of processed meat was also found to be associated with colorectal, esophageal, gastric and bladder cancers. Enhanced intake of white meat or poultry was found to be negatively associated with some types of cancers. Larger beef consumption was significantly associated with cancer, whereas the risk was not increased consuming high amounts of pork. Our analysis suggest increased risk of cancer in subjects consuming large amounts of red and processed meat, but not in those with high intake of white meat or poultry. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Sea-level Rise Increases the Frequency of Nuisance Flooding in Coastal Regions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moftakhari Rostamkhani, H.; Aghakouchak, A.; Sanders, B. F.; Feldman, D.; Sweet, W.; Matthew, R.; Luke, A.

2015-12-01

The global warming-drivensea-level rise (SLR) posesa serious threat for population and assets in flood-prone coastal zones over the next century. The rate of SLR is accelerated in recent decades and is expected to increase based on current trajectories of anthropogenic activities and greenhouse gas emissions. Over the 20th century, an increase in the frequency of nuisance (minor) flooding has been reported due to the reduced gap between tidal datum and flood stage. Nuisance flooding (NF), however non-destructive, causes public inconvenience, business interruption, and substantial economic losses due to impacts such as road closures and degradation of infrastructure. It also portends an increased risk in severe floods. Here we report substantial increases in NF along the coasts of United States due to SLR over the past decades. We then take the projected SLR under the least and the most extreme representative concentration pathways (e.gRCP2.6 and RCP 8.5) to estimate the increase in NF in the near- (2030) and mid-term (2050) future. The results suggest that projected SLR will cause up to two-fold more frequent NF by 2050, compared with the 20th century. The projected increase in NF will have significant socio-economic impacts and pose public health risks especially in rapidly urbanized coastal regions.

Getting to No (Nuclear Weapons) with Iran: Will Coercive Diplomacy Work?

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-12-10

elucidates additional options to better address strategic ends, but with greater risk. Unless a grand bargain is attainable, the U.S. must likely accept...strategic ends, but likely with a substantial increase in risk. Unless an unspoken grand bargain is attainable, the U.S. must likely accept...adroit and vigilant application of counter- force at a series of constantly shifting geographical and political points, corresponding to the shifts

Health impact assessment of active transportation: A systematic review.

PubMed

Mueller, Natalie; Rojas-Rueda, David; Cole-Hunter, Tom; de Nazelle, Audrey; Dons, Evi; Gerike, Regine; Götschi, Thomas; Int Panis, Luc; Kahlmeier, Sonja; Nieuwenhuijsen, Mark

2015-07-01

Walking and cycling for transportation (i.e. active transportation, AT), provide substantial health benefits from increased physical activity (PA). However, risks of injury from exposure to motorized traffic and their emissions (i.e. air pollution) exist. The objective was to systematically review studies conducting health impact assessment (HIA) of a mode shift to AT on grounds of associated health benefits and risks. Systematic database searches of MEDLINE, Web of Science and Transportation Research International Documentation were performed by two independent researchers, augmented by bibliographic review, internet searches and expert consultation to identify peer-reviewed studies from inception to December 2014. Thirty studies were included, originating predominantly from Europe, but also the United States, Australia and New Zealand. They compromised of mostly HIA approaches of comparative risk assessment and cost-benefit analysis. Estimated health benefit-risk or benefit-cost ratios of a mode shift to AT ranged between -2 and 360 (median=9). Effects of increased PA contributed the most to estimated health benefits, which strongly outweighed detrimental effects of traffic incidents and air pollution exposure on health. Despite different HIA methodologies being applied with distinctive assumptions on key parameters, AT can provide substantial net health benefits, irrespective of geographical context. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Downscaling Pest Risk Analyses: Identifying Current and Future Potentially Suitable Habitats for Parthenium hysterophorus with Particular Reference to Europe and North Africa

PubMed Central

Kriticos, Darren J.; Brunel, Sarah; Ota, Noboru; Fried, Guillaume; Oude Lansink, Alfons G. J. M.; Panetta, F. Dane; Prasad, T. V. Ramachandra; Shabbir, Asad; Yaacoby, Tuvia

2015-01-01

Pest Risk Assessments (PRAs) routinely employ climatic niche models to identify endangered areas. Typically, these models consider only climatic factors, ignoring the ‘Swiss Cheese’ nature of species ranges due to the interplay of climatic and habitat factors. As part of a PRA conducted for the European and Mediterranean Plant Protection Organization, we developed a climatic niche model for Parthenium hysterophorus, explicitly including the effects of irrigation where it was known to be practiced. We then downscaled the climatic risk model using two different methods to identify the suitable habitat types: expert opinion (following the EPPO PRA guidelines) and inferred from the global spatial distribution. The PRA revealed a substantial risk to the EPPO region and Central and Western Africa, highlighting the desirability of avoiding an invasion by P. hysterophorus. We also consider the effects of climate change on the modelled risks. The climate change scenario indicated the risk of substantial further spread of P. hysterophorus in temperate northern hemisphere regions (North America, Europe and the northern Middle East), and also high elevation equatorial regions (Western Brazil, Central Africa, and South East Asia) if minimum temperatures increase substantially. Downscaling the climate model using habitat factors resulted in substantial (approximately 22–53%) reductions in the areas estimated to be endangered. Applying expert assessments as to suitable habitat classes resulted in the greatest reduction in the estimated endangered area, whereas inferring suitable habitats factors from distribution data identified more land use classes and a larger endangered area. Despite some scaling issues with using a globally conformal Land Use Systems dataset, the inferential downscaling method shows promise as a routine addition to the PRA toolkit, as either a direct model component, or simply as a means of better informing an expert assessment of the suitable habitat types. PMID:26325680

What factors are associated with increased risk for prolonged postoperative opioid usage after colorectal surgery?

PubMed

Stafford, Caitlin; Francone, Todd; Roberts, Patricia L; Ricciardi, Rocco

2018-02-06

Opioid-related deaths have increased substantially over the last 10 years placing clinician's prescription practices under intense scrutiny. Given the substantial risk of opioid dependency after colorectal surgery, we sought to analyze risk of postoperative prolonged opioid use after colorectal resections. Between 2008 and 2014, patients undergoing abdominopelvic procedure with intestinal resection at a tertiary care facility were retrospectively identified. Patient's postoperative narcotic usage including their prescriptions on discharge and their total opioid medication use was recorded. Patient variables such as demographics, surgical characteristics, and prescription use were evaluated. Finally, we developed multivariate models to identify risk factors for prolonged opioid use (> 30 days after incident surgical procedure). We identified 9423 recorded procedures of which 2173 consisted of abdominopelvic procedures with intestinal resection and survived > 1 year. Of these, 91% (n = 1981) were discharged on opioids, and 98% (n = 1955) of those patients filled only one prescription. A total of 92 (4%) patients remained on opioids beyond 30 days, and from this group, 25% (n = 23 patients) remained at 90 days. We found no association between postoperative complications, stoma formation, and patient's sex with risk of prolonged opioid use. However, younger age and history of chronic pain were associated with an increased risk of prolonged opioid use. The use of minimally invasive techniques also attenuated the risk of prolonged opioid use (Table 2). A small but considerable proportion of patients remain on opioids beyond 30 days. Predictors of opioid use for greater than 30 days include a history of chronic pain and younger age. The use of minimally invasive techniques reduced the risk of prolonged opioid use. We identified several immutable risk factors that predicted prolonged postoperative opioid use; however, surgeons may be able to attenuate prolonged opioid use through the use of minimally invasive techniques.

Sleep and Hypertension

PubMed Central

Harding, Susan M.

2010-01-01

Ambulatory BP studies indicate that even small increases in BP, particularly nighttime BP levels, are associated with significant increases in cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Accordingly, sleep-related diseases that induce increases in BP would be anticipated to substantially affect cardiovascular risk. Both sleep deprivation and insomnia have been linked to increases in incidence and prevalence of hypertension. Likewise, sleep disruption attributable to restless legs syndrome increases the likelihood of having hypertension. Observational studies demonstrate a strong correlation between the severity of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and the risk and severity of hypertension, whereas prospective studies of patients with OSA demonstrate a positive relationship between OSA and risk of incident hypertension. Intervention trials with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) indicate a modest, but inconsistent effect on BP in patients with severe OSA and a greater likelihood of benefit in patients with most CPAP adherence. Additional prospective studies are needed to reconcile observational studies suggesting that OSA is a strong risk factor for hypertension with the modest antihypertensive effects of CPAP observed in intervention studies. PMID:20682533

Increased congenital heart defects in children born to women with systemic lupus erythematosus: results from the offspring of Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Mothers Registry Study.

PubMed

Vinet, Évelyne; Pineau, Christian A; Scott, Susan; Clarke, Ann E; Platt, Robert W; Bernatsky, Sasha

2015-01-13

In a large population-based study, we aimed to determine whether children born to women with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) have an increased risk of congenital heart defects (CHDs) in comparison with children born to women without SLE. The Offspring of SLE Mothers Registry (OSLER) includes all women who had ≥1 hospitalization for delivery after SLE diagnosis, identified through Quebec's healthcare databases (1989-2009), and a randomly selected control group of women, matched ≥4:1 for age and year of delivery. We identified children born live to SLE mothers and their matched controls, and ascertained CHD based on ≥1 hospitalization or physician visit with relevant diagnostic codes, within the first 12 months of life. We performed multivariable logistic regression analyses, using the generalized estimating equation method, to adjust for relevant covariates. Five hundred nine women with SLE had 719 children, whereas 5824 matched controls had 8493 children. In comparison with controls, children born to women with SLE experienced more CHD (5.2% [95% confidence interval (CI), 3.7-7.1] versus 1.9% [95% CI, 1.6-2.2], difference 3.3% [95% CI, 1.9-5.2]). In multivariable analyses, children born to women with SLE had a substantially increased risk of CHD (odds ratio, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.77-3.88) in comparison with controls. In addition, in comparison with controls, offspring of SLE mothers had a substantially increased risk of having a CHD repair procedure (odds ratio, 5.82; 95% CI, 1.77-19.09). In comparison with children from the general population, children born to women with SLE have an increased risk of CHD, and an increased risk of having a CHD repair procedure, as well. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.

Complex association between body weight and fracture risk in postmenopausal women.

PubMed

Mpalaris, V; Anagnostis, P; Goulis, D G; Iakovou, I

2015-03-01

Osteoporosis is a common disease, characterized by low bone mass with micro-architectural disruption and skeletal fragility, resulting in an increased risk of fracture. A substantial number of studies has examined the possible relationship between body weight, bone mineral density and fracture risk in post-menopausal women, with the majority of them concluding that low body weight correlates with increased risk of fracture, especially hip fracture. Controversies about the potential protective effect of obesity on osteoporosis and consequent fracture risk still exist. Several recent studies question the concept that obesity exerts a protective effect against fractures, suggesting that it stands as a risk factor for fractures at specific skeletal sites, such as upper arm. The association between body weight and fracture risk is complex, differs across skeletal sites and body mass index, and is modified by the interaction between body weight and bone mineral density. Some potential explanations that link obesity with increased fracture risk may be the pattern of falls and impaired mobility in obese individuals, comorbidities, such as asthma, diabetes and early menopause, as well as, increased parathyroid hormone and reduced 25-hydroxy-vitamin D concentrations. © 2015 World Obesity.

Community-based telemonitoring for hypertension management: practical challenges and potential solutions.

PubMed

Hovey, Lauren; Kaylor, Mary Beth; Alwan, Majd; Resnick, Helaine E

2011-10-01

Older adults residing in rural areas often lack convenient, patient-centered, community-based approaches to facilitate receipt of routine care to manage common chronic conditions. Without adequate access to appropriate disease management resources, the risk of seniors' experiencing acute events related to these common conditions increases substantially. Further, poorly managed chronic conditions are costly and place seniors at increased risk of institutionalization and permanent loss of independence. Novel, telehealth-based approaches to management of common chronic conditions like hypertension may not only improve the health of older adults, but may also lead to substantial cost savings associated with acute care episodes and institutionalization. The aim of this report is to summarize practical considerations related to operations and logistics of a unique community-based telemonitoring pilot study targeting rural seniors who utilize community-based senior centers. This article reviews the technological challenges encountered during the study and proposes solutions relevant to future research and implementation of telehealth in community-based, congregate settings.

Hospitalization Frequency and Charges for Neurocysticercosis, United States, 2003–2012

PubMed Central

Flecker, Robert H.

2015-01-01

Neurocysticercosis, brain infection with Taenia solium larval cysts, causes substantial neurologic illness around the world. To assess the effect of neurocysticercosis in the United States, we reviewed hospitalization discharge data in the Nationwide Inpatient Sample for 2003–2012 and found an estimated 18,584 hospitalizations for neurocysticercosis and associated hospital charges totaling >US $908 million. The risk for hospitalization was highest among Hispanics (2.5/100,000 population), a rate 35 times higher than that for the non-Hispanic white population. Nearly three-quarters of all hospitalized patients with neurocysticercosis were Hispanic. Male sex and age 20–44 years also incurred increased risk. In addition, hospitalizations and associated charges related to cysticercosis far exceeded those for malaria and were greater than for those for all other neglected tropical diseases combined. Neurocysticercosis is an increasing public health concern in the United States, especially among Hispanics, and costs the US health care system a substantial amount of money. PMID:25988221

Child maltreatment and risk patterns among participants in a child abuse prevention program.

PubMed

Duffy, Jennifer Y; Hughes, Marcia; Asnes, Andrea G; Leventhal, John M

2015-06-01

The relationship between risk factors and Child Protective Services (CPS) outcomes in families who participate in home visiting programs to prevent abuse and neglect and who are reported to CPS is largely unknown. We examined the relationship between parental risk factors and the substantiation status and number of CPS reports in families in a statewide prevention program. We reviewed CPS reports from 2006 to 2008 for families in Connecticut's child abuse prevention program. Six risk factors (histories of CPS, domestic violence [DV], mental health, sexual abuse, substance abuse, and criminal involvement) and the number of caregivers were abstracted to create risk scores for each family member. Maltreatment type, substantiation, and number of reports were recorded. Odds ratios were calculated. Of 1,125 families, 171 (15.6%) had at least one CPS report, and reports of 131 families were available for review. Families with a substantiated (25.2%) versus unsubstantiated (74.8%) first report had a high number of paternal risk factors (OR=6.13, 95% CI [1.89, 20.00]) and were more likely to have a history of maternal DV (OR=8.47, 95% CI [2.96, 24.39]), paternal DV (OR=11.23, 95% CI [3.33, 38.46]), and maternal criminal history (OR=4.55; 95% CI [1.32, 15.60]). Families with >1 report (34.4%) versus 1 report (65.6%) were more likely to have >3 caregivers, but this was not statistically significant (OR=2.53, 95% CI [0.98, 6.54]). In a prevention program for first-time families, DV, paternal risk, maternal criminal history, and an increased number of caregivers were associated with maltreatment outcomes. Targeting parental violence may impact child abuse prevention. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Maternal Malaria and Perinatal HIV Transmission, Western Kenya1,2

PubMed Central

Ayisi, John G.; van Eijk, Anna M.; ter Kuile, Feiko O.; Shi, Ya Ping; Yang, Chunfu; Kolczak, Margarette S.; Otieno, Juliana A.; Misore, Ambrose O.; Kager, Piet A.; Lal, Renu B.; Steketee, Richard W.; Nahlen, Bernard L.

2004-01-01

To determine whether maternal placental malaria is associated with an increased risk for perinatal mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT), we studied HIV-positive women in western Kenya. We enrolled 512 mother-infant pairs; 128 (25.0%) women had malaria, and 102 (19.9%) infants acquired HIV perinatally. Log10 HIV viral load and episiotomy or perineal tear were associated with increased perinatal HIV transmission, whereas low-density malaria (<10,000 parasites/μL) was associated with reduced risk (adjusted relative risk [ARR] 0.4). Among women dually infected with malaria and HIV, high-density malaria (>10,000 parasites/μL) was associated with increased risk for perinatal MTCT (ARR 2.0), compared to low-density malaria. The interaction between placental malaria and MTCT appears to be variable and complex: placental malaria that is controlled at low density may cause an increase in broad-based immune responses that protect against MTCT; uncontrolled, high-density malaria may simultaneously disrupt placental architecture and generate substantial antigen stimulus to HIV replication and increase risk for MTCT. PMID:15200854

Rare disaster information can increase risk-taking

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Newell, Ben R.; Rakow, Tim; Yechiam, Eldad; Sambur, Michael

2016-02-01

The recent increase in the frequency and impact of natural disasters highlights the need to provide the public with accurate information concerning disaster prevalence. Most approaches to this problem assume that providing summaries of the nature and scale of disasters will lead people to reduce their exposure to risk. Here we present experimental evidence that such ex post `news reports’ of disaster occurrences can increase the tolerance for risk-taking (which implies that rare events are underweighted). This result is robust across several hundred rounds of choices in a simulated microworld, persists even when the long-run expected value of risky choices is substantially lower than safe choices, and is contingent on providing risk information about disasters that have been (personally) experienced and those that have been avoided (`forgone’ outcomes). The results suggest that augmenting personal experience with information summaries of the number of adverse events (for example, storms, floods) in different regions may, paradoxically, increase the appeal of a disaster-prone region. This finding implies a need to communicate long-term trends in severe climatic events, thereby reinforcing the accumulation of events, and the increase in their associated risks, across time.

Analysis of radiation risk from alpha particle component of solar particle events

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Cucinotta, F. A.; Townsend, L. W.; Wilson, J. W.; Golightly, M. J.; Weyland, M.

1994-01-01

The solar particle events (SPE) will contain a primary alpha particle component, representing a possible increase in the potential risk to astronauts during an SPE over the often studied proton component. We discuss the physical interactions of alpha particles important in describing the transport of these particles through spacecraft and body shielding. Models of light ion reactions are presented and their effects on energy and linear energy transfer (LET) spectra in shielding discussed. We present predictions of particle spectra, dose, and dose equivalent in organs of interest for SPE spectra typical of those occurring in recent solar cycles. The large events of solar cycle 19 are found to have substantial increase in biological risk from alpha particles, including a large increase in secondary neutron production from alpha particle breakup.

Climate change, food, water and population health in China.

PubMed

Tong, Shilu; Berry, Helen L; Ebi, Kristie; Bambrick, Hilary; Hu, Wenbiao; Green, Donna; Hanna, Elizabeth; Wang, Zhiqiang; Butler, Colin D

2016-10-01

Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change's most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially - although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources - e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change - e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases - are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population's resilience to the risks of climate variability and change.

Climate change, food, water and population health in China

PubMed Central

Berry, Helen L; Ebi, Kristie; Bambrick, Hilary; Hu, Wenbiao; Green, Donna; Hanna, Elizabeth; Wang, Zhiqiang; Butler, Colin D

2016-01-01

Abstract Anthropogenic climate change appears to be increasing the frequency, duration and intensity of extreme weather events. Such events have already had substantial impacts on socioeconomic development and population health. Climate change’s most profound impacts are likely to be on food, health systems and water. This paper explores how climate change will affect food, human health and water in China. Projections indicate that the overall effects of climate change, land conversion and reduced water availability could reduce Chinese food production substantially – although uncertainty is inevitable in such projections. Climate change will probably have substantial impacts on water resources – e.g. changes in rainfall patterns and increases in the frequencies of droughts and floods in some areas of China. Such impacts would undoubtedly threaten population health and well-being in many communities. In the short-term, population health in China is likely to be adversely affected by increases in air temperatures and pollution. In the medium to long term, however, the indirect impacts of climate change – e.g. changes in the availability of food, shelter and water, decreased mental health and well-being and changes in the distribution and seasonality of infectious diseases – are likely to grow in importance. The potentially catastrophic consequences of climate change can only be avoided if all countries work together towards a substantial reduction in the emission of so-called greenhouse gases and a substantial increase in the global population’s resilience to the risks of climate variability and change. PMID:27843166

The Role of Medical Expenditure Risk in Portfolio Allocation Decisions.

PubMed

Ayyagari, Padmaja; He, Daifeng

2017-11-01

Economic theory suggests that medical spending risk affects the extent to which households are willing to accept financial risk, and consequently their investment portfolios. In this study, we focus on the elderly for whom medical spending represents a substantial risk. We exploit the exogenous reduction in prescription drug spending risk because of the introduction of Medicare Part D in the U.S. in 2006 to identify the causal effect of medical spending risk on portfolio choice. Consistent with theory, we find that Medicare-eligible persons increased risky investment after the introduction of prescription drug coverage, relative to a younger, ineligible cohort. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

[SUBSTANTIATION OF DOSE LIMITS FOR A NEW NORMATIVE DOCUMENT ON RADIATION SAFETY OF LONG-DURATION SPACE MISSIONS AT ORBIT ALTITUDES OF UP TO 500 KM].

PubMed

Ushakov, I B; Grigoriev, Yu G; Shafirkin, A V; Shurshakov, V A

2016-01-01

Review of the data of experimental radiobiology and epidemiological follow-up of large groups of people subjected to radiation exposures on Earth has been undertaken to substantiate dose limits for critical organs of cosmonauts in order to ensure good performance and vitality while on long-duration orbital missions. The career dose limits for cosmonauts and astronauts established earlier in the USSR and USA amounted to nothing more but banning the risk of cancer death increase to 3%. To apply more rigorous criteria of delayed radiation risks, the Russian limits for cosmonauts were revised to substantiate a 4-fold reduction of the average tissue equivalent dose maximum to 1 Sv. The total of cancer and non-cancer radiation risks over lifetime and probable reduction of mean life expectancy (MLE) were calculated using the model of radiation-induced mortality for mammals and taken as the main damage to health. The established dose limit is equal to the career dose for nuclear industry personnel set forth by Russian standard document NRB 99/2009. For better agreement of admissible threshold doses to critical human organs (bone marrow, lens and skin) in the revised radiation limits for long-duration space missions and radiation safety limits on Earth, reduction of dose limits for the critical organs were substantiated additionally; these limits comply with those for planned over-exposure on Earth in document NRB 99/2009.

Pre-Launch Risk Reduction Activities Conducted at KSC for the International Space Station

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Kirkpatrick, Paul

2011-01-01

In the development of any large scale space-based multi-piece assembly effort, planning must include provisions for testing and verification; not only of the individual pieces but also of the pieces together. Without such testing on the ground, the risk to cost, schedule and technical performance increases substantially. This paper will review the efforts undertaken by the International Space Station (ISS), including the International Partners, during the pre-launch phase, primarily at KSC, to reduce the risks associated with the on-orbit assembly and operation of the ISS.

Age-specific preterm birth rates after exclusion of risk factors--an analysis of the german perinatal survey.

PubMed

Voigt, M; Briese, V; Carstensen, M; Wolterdorf, F; Hallier, E; Straube, S

2010-08-01

A description of preterm birth rates - specified according to maternal age - after the exclusion of anamnestic risk factors. Data for this study were taken from the German Perinatal Survey of 1998-2000. We analysed data from 492,576 singleton pregnancies and determined preterm birth rates according to maternal age after a stepwise exclusion of anamnestic risk factors. There was a U-shaped dependence of preterm birth rates on maternal age. The lowest preterm birth rate (without excluding women with anamnestic risk factors) was 5.6% at a maternal age of 29 years. The prevalence of some anamnestic risk factors for preterm birth, such as previous stillbirths, spontaneous and induced abortions, and ectopic pregnancies, increased with maternal age. Excluding women with anamnestic risk factors lowered the preterm birth rates substantially. The lowest preterm birth rates were found in women with one previous live birth, without any anamnestic risk factors, and with a body mass index (BMI) of 25.00-29.99. With these restrictions, we found preterm birth rates of under 2% for women aged 24-31 years. The magnitude and age-dependence of the preterm birth rate can to some extent be explained with the age-dependent prevalence of anamnestic risk factors for preterm birth. Excluding women with anamnestic risk factors from our study population lowered the preterm birth rates substantially. © Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Neuropsychology of Child Maltreatment and Implications for School Psychologists

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Davis, Andrew S.; Moss, Lauren E.; Nogin, Margarita M.; Webb, Nadia Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Child maltreatment has the potential to alter a child's neurodevelopmental trajectory and substantially increase the risk of later psychiatric disorders, as well as to deleteriously impact neurocognitive functioning throughout the lifespan. Child maltreatment has been linked to multiple domains of neurocognitive impairment, including…

Canadian truckers could drive 14 hours at a stretch, under proposed new rule

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

2000-01-15

Research shows the risk of crashing increases substantially if truck drivers spend more than eight hours behind the wheel. A new Canadian rule governing truckers' hours of service is due in June 2000. In contrast, truckers on United States roads are ...

Suicide in Tourette's and Chronic Tic Disorders.

PubMed

Fernández de la Cruz, Lorena; Rydell, Mina; Runeson, Bo; Brander, Gustaf; Rück, Christian; D'Onofrio, Brian M; Larsson, Henrik; Lichtenstein, Paul; Mataix-Cols, David

2017-07-15

Persons with neuropsychiatric disorders are at increased risk of suicide, but there is little data concerning Tourette's and chronic tic disorders (TD/CTD). We aimed to quantify the risk of suicidal behavior in a large nationwide cohort of patients with TD/CTD, establish the contribution of psychiatric comorbidity to this risk, and identify predictors of suicide. Using a validated algorithm, we identified 7736 TD/CTD cases in the Swedish National Patient Register during a 44-year period (1969-2013). Using a matched case-cohort design, patients were compared with general population control subjects (1:10 ratio). Risk of suicidal behavior was estimated using conditional logistic regressions. Predictors of suicidal behavior in the TD/CTD cohort were studied using Cox regression models. In unadjusted models, TD/CTD patients, compared with control subjects, had an increased risk of both dying by suicide (odds ratio: 4.39; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.89-6.67) and attempting suicide (odds ratio: 3.86; 95% CI: 3.50-4.26). After adjusting for psychiatric comorbidities, the risk was reduced but remained substantial. Persistence of tics beyond young adulthood and a previous suicide attempt were the strongest predictors of death by suicide in TD/CTD patients (hazard ratio: 11.39; 95% CI: 3.71-35.02, and hazard ratio: 5.65; 95% CI: 2.21-14.42, respectively). TD/CTD are associated with substantial risk of suicide. Suicidal behavior should be monitored in these patients, particularly in those with persistent tics, history of suicide attempts, and psychiatric comorbidities. Preventive and intervention strategies aimed to reduce the suicidal risk in this group are warranted. Copyright © 2016 Society of Biological Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Medicare Part D and Portfolio Choice.

PubMed

Ayyagari, Padmaja; He, Daifeng

2016-05-01

This study evaluates the impact of medical expenditure risk on portfolio choice among the elderly. The risk of large medical expenditures can be substantial for elderly individuals and is only partially mitigated by access to health insurance. The presence of deductibles, copayments, and other cost-sharing mechanisms implies that medical spending risk can be viewed as an undiversifiable background risk. Economic theory suggests that increases in background risk reduce the optimal financial risk that an individual or household is willing to bear (Pratt and Zeckhauser 1987; Elmendorf and Kimball 2000). In this study, we evaluate this hypothesis by estimating the impact of the introduction of the Medicare Part D program, which significantly reduced prescription drug spending risk for seniors, on portfolio choice.

Long-term effects of ovulation-stimulating drugs on cancer risk.

PubMed

Brinton, Louise

2007-07-01

Although nulliparity has been extensively related to the risk of ovarian, breast and endometrial cancers, with many studies showing the relationship largely attributable to infertility, treatment effects on cancer risk are poorly understood. Two early studies raised substantial concern when ovulation-stimulating drugs were linked with large increases in ovarian cancer, supporting the notion of an important aetiological role of incessant ovulation. Subsequent studies have been mainly reassuring, although some have suggested possible risk increases among nulligravid women, those with extensive follow-up, and those developing borderline tumours. Results regarding effects of fertility drugs on breast cancer risk are conflicting, with some showing no associations and others demonstrating possible risk increases, although for varying subgroups. In contrast, endometrial cancer results are more consistent, with two recent studies showing increased risks related to clomiphene usage. This is of interest given that clomiphene is structurally similar to tamoxifen, a drug extensively linked with this cancer. Given the recent marketing of fertility drugs and the fact that exposed women are only beginning to reach the cancer age range, further follow-up is necessary. This will also be important to fully resolve effects of exposures such as gonadotrophins, used more recently in conjunction with IVF.

How rural land use management facilitates drought risk adaptation in a changing climate - A case study in arid northern China.

PubMed

Lei, Yongdeng; Zhang, Hailin; Chen, Fu; Zhang, Linbo

2016-04-15

Under a warming climate, frequent drought and water scarcity in northern China have severely disrupted agricultural production and posed a substantial threat to farmers' livelihoods. Based on first-hand data collected through in-depth interviews with local managers and farmer households, this study evaluated the effectiveness of rural land use management in mitigating drought risk, ensuring food security and improving farmers' livelihoods. Our findings indicate that a) reforestation on low-yield cropland not only can improve the eco-environment but can also prominently mitigate the production risk to local farmers; b) replacing the traditional border irrigation with sprinkler irrigation has substantially curbed agricultural water usage and increased the per unit of output; and c) in recent years, instead of planting water-intensive grain crops, local farmers cultivated more forage crops to raise animals, which greatly diversified their income sources and reduced the drought risk of agricultural production. By performing an empirical case study in drought-prone Inner Mongolia, this study provides decision-makers with insights into how to strategically adapt to drought risk and reduce rural poverty within the broader context of climate change. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Influence of fatigue time and level on increases in postural sway.

PubMed

Pline, Kevin M; Madigan, Michael L; Nussbaum, Maury A

2006-12-15

The purpose of this study was to investigate the influence of fatigue time and fatigue level on the increases in postural sway during quiet standing. Centre of pressure-based measures of postural sway were collected both before and after fatiguing participants using three different fatigue levels and two different fatigue times. Results showed increasing fatigue time increased sway velocity and sway area, and increasing fatigue level increased sway velocity. Fatigue time effects are important to consider when applying laboratory-based findings to the field given that the fatigue time can differ substantially between the two. Fatigue level effects imply a dose - response relationship between localized muscle fatigue and risk of falling that can have important implications in work/rest cycle scheduling for occupations at risk of injurious falls.

Does a vegan diet reduce risk for Parkinson's disease?

PubMed

McCarty, M F

2001-09-01

Three recent case-control studies conclude that diets high in animal fat or cholesterol are associated with a substantial increase in risk for Parkinson's disease (PD); in contrast, fat of plant origin does not appear to increase risk. Whereas reported age-adjusted prevalence rates of PD tend to be relatively uniform throughout Europe and the Americas, sub-Saharan black Africans, rural Chinese, and Japanese, groups whose diets tend to be vegan or quasi-vegan, appear to enjoy substantially lower rates. Since current PD prevalence in African-Americans is little different from that in whites, environmental factors are likely to be responsible for the low PD risk in black Africans. In aggregate, these findings suggest that vegan diets may be notably protective with respect to PD. However, they offer no insight into whether saturated fat, compounds associated with animal fat, animal protein, or the integrated impact of the components of animal products mediates the risk associated with animal fat consumption. Caloric restriction has recently been shown to protect the central dopaminergic neurons of mice from neurotoxins, at least in part by induction of heat-shock proteins; conceivably, the protection afforded by vegan diets reflects a similar mechanism. The possibility that vegan diets could be therapeutically beneficial in PD, by slowing the loss of surviving dopaminergic neurons, thus retarding progression of the syndrome, may merit examination. Vegan diets could also be helpful to PD patients by promoting vascular health and aiding blood-brain barrier transport of L-dopa. Copyright 2001 Harcourt Publishers Ltd.

77 FR 21564 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Proposed Collection; Comment Request; Administrative...

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2012-04-10

... ownership if devices are detained at a place other than that of the appellant. Under Sec. 800.55(k), the... an unreasonable and substantial risk of illness or injury. Section 895.21 (21 CFR 895.21), on banned... the device presents substantial deception, unreasonable and substantial risk of illness or injury, or...

Mangroves as a protection from storm surges in a changing climate.

PubMed

Blankespoor, Brian; Dasgupta, Susmita; Lange, Glenn-Marie

2017-05-01

Adaptation to climate change includes addressing sea-level rise (SLR) and increased storm surges in many coastal areas. Mangroves can substantially reduce vulnerability of the adjacent coastal land from inundation but SLR poses a threat to the future of mangroves. This paper quantifies coastal protection services of mangroves for 42 developing countries in the current climate, and a future climate change scenario with a 1-m SLR and 10  % intensification of storms. Findings demonstrate that while SLR and increased storm intensity would increase storm surge areas, the greatest impact is from the expected loss of mangroves. Under current climate and mangrove coverage, 3.5 million people and GDP worth roughly US $400 million are at risk. In the future climate change scenario, vulnerable population and GDP at risk would increase by 103 and 233  %. The greatest risk is in East Asia, especially in Indonesia and the Philippines as well as Myanmar.

Gonorrhoea Diagnostic and Treatment Uncertainties: Risk Factors for Culture Negative Confirmation after Positive Nucleic Acid Amplification Tests.

PubMed

Vyth, Rebecka; Leval, Amy; Eriksson, Björn; Ericson, Eva-Lena; Marions, Lena; Hergens, Maria-Pia

2016-01-01

Gonorrhoea incidence has increased substantially in Stockholm during the past years. These increases have coincided with changes in testing practice from solely culture-based to nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT). Gonorrhoea NAAT is integrated with Chlamydia trachomatis testing and due to opportunistic screening for chlamydia, testing prevalence for gonorrhoea has increased substantially in the Stockholm population. The aim of this study was to examine epidemiological risk-factors for discordant case which are NAAT positive but culture negative. These discordant cases are especially problematic as they give rise to diagnostic and treatment uncertainties with risk for subsequent sequelae. All gonorrhoea cases from Stockholm county during 2011-2012 with at least one positive N. gonorrhoea NAAT test and follow-up cultures were included (N = 874). Data were analysed using multivariate and stratified logistic regression models. Results showed that women were 4-times more likely (OR 4.9; 95% CI 2.4-6.7) than men to have discordant cultures. Individuals tested for gonorrhoea without symptoms were 2.3 times more likely (95% CI 1.5-3.5) than those with symptoms to be discordant. NAAT method and having one week or more between NAAT and culture testing were also indicative of an increased likelihood for discordance. Using NAAT should be based on proper clinical or epidemiological indications and, when positive, followed-up with a culture-based test within one week if possible. Routine gonorrhoea testing is not recommended in low prevalence populations.

Gonorrhoea Diagnostic and Treatment Uncertainties: Risk Factors for Culture Negative Confirmation after Positive Nucleic Acid Amplification Tests

PubMed Central

Vyth, Rebecka; Leval, Amy; Eriksson, Björn; Ericson, Eva-Lena; Marions, Lena; Hergens, Maria-Pia

2016-01-01

Gonorrhoea incidence has increased substantially in Stockholm during the past years. These increases have coincided with changes in testing practice from solely culture-based to nucleic acid amplification tests (NAAT). Gonorrhoea NAAT is integrated with Chlamydia trachomatis testing and due to opportunistic screening for chlamydia, testing prevalence for gonorrhoea has increased substantially in the Stockholm population. The aim of this study was to examine epidemiological risk-factors for discordant case which are NAAT positive but culture negative. These discordant cases are especially problematic as they give rise to diagnostic and treatment uncertainties with risk for subsequent sequelae. All gonorrhoea cases from Stockholm county during 2011–2012 with at least one positive N. gonorrhoea NAAT test and follow-up cultures were included (N = 874). Data were analysed using multivariate and stratified logistic regression models. Results showed that women were 4-times more likely (OR 4.9; 95% CI 2.4–6.7) than men to have discordant cultures. Individuals tested for gonorrhoea without symptoms were 2.3 times more likely (95% CI 1.5–3.5) than those with symptoms to be discordant. NAAT method and having one week or more between NAAT and culture testing were also indicative of an increased likelihood for discordance. Using NAAT should be based on proper clinical or epidemiological indications and, when positive, followed-up with a culture-based test within one week if possible. Routine gonorrhoea testing is not recommended in low prevalence populations. PMID:27152704

Adolescent Perpetrator Treatment Programs: Program Models.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Abbey, Joan M.

It has become increasingly evident that juveniles are the perpetrators of a substantial nunber of sexual assaults. Programs designed to treat these adolescent perpetrators usually have similar goals. They attempt to reduce the youth's risk of recidivism by helping him to recognize his problem, take responsibility for his actions, learn how to…

Exercise Prescriptions for Active Seniors: A Team Approach for Maximizing Adherence.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brennan, Fred H., Jr.

2002-01-01

Exercise is an important "medication" that healthcare providers can prescribe for their geriatric patients. Increasing physical fitness by participating in regular exercise can reduce the effects of aging that lead to functional declines and poor health. Modest regular exercise can substantially lower the risk of death from coronary…

Fire Safety for Retired Adults: Participant's Coursebook.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Walker (Bonnie) and Associates, Inc., Crofton, MD.

The risk of dying from fire increases substantially among older adults. This document contains a collection of fire safety information for elderly people. Information includes procedures to follow in case of fire and early warning technologies such as smoke alarms. The booklet describes potential sources of fires (smoking, home heating, kitchens,…

THE USE OF COMPUTER MODELING PACKAGES TO ILLUSTRATE UNCERTAINTY IN RISK ASSESSMENTS: AN EASE OF USE AND INTERPRETATION COMPARISON

EPA Science Inventory

Consistent improvements in processor speed and computer access have substantially increased the use of computer modeling by experts and non-experts alike. Several new computer modeling packages operating under graphical operating systems (i.e. Microsoft Windows or Macintosh) m...

42 CFR 422.356 - Determining substantial financial risk and majority financial interest.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-10-01

...) Determining substantial financial risk. The PSO must demonstrate to CMS's satisfaction that it apportions a significant part of the financial risk of the PSO enterprise under the MA contract to each affiliated provider. The PSO must demonstrate that the financial arrangements among its affiliated providers constitute...

42 CFR 422.356 - Determining substantial financial risk and majority financial interest.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-10-01

...) Determining substantial financial risk. The PSO must demonstrate to CMS's satisfaction that it apportions a significant part of the financial risk of the PSO enterprise under the MA contract to each affiliated provider. The PSO must demonstrate that the financial arrangements among its affiliated providers constitute...

Using chronic disease risk factors to adjust Medicare capitation payments

PubMed Central

Schauffler, Helen Halpin; Howland, Jonathan; Cobb, Janet

1992-01-01

This study evaluates the use of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters for Medicare's capitation formula, the average adjusted per capita costs (AAPCC). Risk factor data for the surviving members of the Framingham Study cohort who were examined in 1982-83 were merged with 100 percent Medicare payment data for 1984 and 1985, matching on Social Security number and sex. Seven different AAPCC models were estimated to assess the independent contributions of risk factors and measures of prior utilization and disability in increasing the explanatory power of AAPCC. The findings suggest that inclusion of risk factors for chronic disease as health status adjusters can improve substantially the predictive accuracy of AAPCC. PMID:10124441

Mapping rural community and dairy cow heat stress in Southern Ontario: A common geographic pattern from 2010 to 2012.

PubMed

Bishop-Williams, Katherine E; Berke, Olaf; Pearl, David L; Kelton, David F

2016-07-03

Climate change has increased the occurrence of heat waves, causing heat stress among humans and livestock, with potentially fatal consequences. Heat stress maps provide information about related health risks and insight for control strategies. Weather data were collected throughout Southern Ontario, and the heat stress index (HSI) was estimated for 2010-2012. Geostatistical kriging was applied to map heat stress, heat waves, and control periods. Average HSI for each period ranged from 55 to 78 during control periods, and from 65 to 84 during heat waves, surpassing levels where morbidity is known to increase substantially. Heat stress followed a temporally consistent geographic pattern. HSI maps indicate high-risk areas for heat-related illness and indicate areas where agriculture and human health may be at increased risk in future.

Screening for substance abuse risk in cancer patients using the Opioid Risk Tool and urine drug screen.

PubMed

Barclay, Joshua S; Owens, Justine E; Blackhall, Leslie J

2014-07-01

The use of opioids for management of cancer-related pain has increased significantly and has been associated with a substantial rise in rates of substance abuse and diversion. There is a paucity of data not only on the prevalence of substance abuse in cancer patients, but also for issues of drug use and diversion in family caregivers. This study aimed to evaluate the frequency of risk factors for substance abuse and diversion, and abnormal urine drug screens in cancer patients receiving palliative care. A retrospective chart review was performed for patients with cancer who were seen in the University of Virginia Palliative Care Clinic during the month of September 2012. We evaluated Opioid Risk Tool variables and total scores, insurance status, and urine drug screen results. Of the 114 cancer patients seen in September 2012, the mean Opioid Risk Tool score was 3.79, with 43% of patients defined as medium to high risk. Age (16-45 years old, 23%) and a personal history of alcohol (23%) or illicit drugs (21%) were the most common risk factors identified. We obtained a urine drug screen on 40% of patients, noting abnormal findings in 45.65%. Opioids are an effective treatment for cancer-related pain, yet substantial risk for substance abuse exits in the cancer population. Screening tools, such as the Opioid Risk Tool, should be used as part of a complete patient assessment to balance risk with appropriate relief of suffering.

Cannabis effects on driving skills.

PubMed

Hartman, Rebecca L; Huestis, Marilyn A

2013-03-01

Cannabis is the most prevalent illicit drug identified in impaired drivers. The effects of cannabis on driving continue to be debated, making prosecution and legislation difficult. Historically, delays in sample collection, evaluating the inactive Δ(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) metabolite 11-nor-9-carboxy-THC, and polydrug use have complicated epidemiologic evaluations of driver impairment after cannabis use. We review and evaluate the current literature on cannabis' effects on driving, highlighting the epidemiologic and experimental data. Epidemiologic data show that the risk of involvement in a motor vehicle accident (MVA) increases approximately 2-fold after cannabis smoking. The adjusted risk of driver culpability also increases substantially, particularly with increased blood THC concentrations. Studies that have used urine as the biological matrix have not shown an association between cannabis and crash risk. Experimental data show that drivers attempt to compensate by driving more slowly after smoking cannabis, but control deteriorates with increasing task complexity. Cannabis smoking increases lane weaving and impaired cognitive function. Critical-tracking tests, reaction times, divided-attention tasks, and lane-position variability all show cannabis-induced impairment. Despite purported tolerance in frequent smokers, complex tasks still show impairment. Combining cannabis with alcohol enhances impairment, especially lane weaving. Differences in study designs frequently account for inconsistencies in results between studies. Participant-selection bias and confounding factors attenuate ostensible cannabis effects, but the association with MVA often retains significance. Evidence suggests recent smoking and/or blood THC concentrations 2-5 ng/mL are associated with substantial driving impairment, particularly in occasional smokers. Future cannabis-and-driving research should emphasize challenging tasks, such as divided attention, and include occasional and chronic daily cannabis smokers.

Land use planning and wildfire: development policies influence future probability of housing loss

USGS Publications Warehouse

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Massada, Avi Bar; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction.

Combined hormonal contraceptives: prescribing patterns, compliance, and benefits versus risks.

PubMed

Brynhildsen, Jan

2014-10-01

Combined hormonal contraceptives [combined oral contraceptives (COCs)] have been available for over 50 years and the impact of this invention may not be overestimated. Today over 100 million women are current users and in Western Europe and the United States approximately 80% of women of fertile ages can be considered as ever-users. Over the years several drawbacks have been identified and media alarms on risks are frequently presented, resulting in suboptimal compliance and low compliance and continuation rates. Poor compliance and discontinuation is a big problem and is not generally identified by prescribers. During ideal use COCs offer very good protection against unwanted pregnancies, however there is a big problem with compliance and continuation and thus the 'real-life' efficacy is much lower. Reasons for poor compliance include side effects and fear of side effects and it is crucial that the prescriber gives the individual woman thorough and balanced information on the benefits and risks. Most well known is the increased risk of venous thromboembolism, but also an elevated risk of arterial thrombosis and several types of cancer has been reported. The risk estimates are low but according to the large number of users a substantial number of extra cases will occur. However, use of COCs also offers several additional health benefits with significant impact on morbidity and quality of life. COC use is associated with a substantial decrease in the risk of ovarian cancer, endometrial cancer and colorectal cancer. Moreover, COCs are a major option of treatment for women suffering from heavy menstrual bleeding and dysmenorrhea as well as hirsutism and acne vulgaris. The net effect of the additional health effects of COC- use may very well be positive, i.e. a slight increase in life expectancy.

Pre-existing adversity, level of child protection involvement, and school attendance predict educational outcomes in a longitudinal study.

PubMed

Maclean, Miriam J; Taylor, Catherine L; O'Donnell, Melissa

2016-01-01

Maltreatment largely occurs in a multiple-risk context. The few large studies adjusting for confounding factors have raised doubts about whether low educational achievement results from maltreatment or co-occurring risk factors. This study examined prevalence, risk and protective factors for low educational achievement among children involved with the child protection system compared to other children. We conducted a population-based record-linkage study of children born in Western Australia who sat national Year 3 reading achievement tests between 2008 and 2010 (N=46,838). The longitudinal study linked data from the Western Australian Department of Education, Department of Child Protection and Family Support, Department of Health, and the Disability Services Commission. Children with histories of child protection involvement (unsubstantiated maltreatment reports, substantiations or out-of-home care placement) were at three-fold increased risk of low reading scores. Adjusting for socio-demographic adversity partially attenuated the increased risk, however risk remained elevated overall and for substantiated (OR=1.68) and unsubstantiated maltreatment (OR=1.55). Risk of low reading scores in the out-of-home care group was fully attenuated after adjusting for socio-demographic adversity (OR=1.16). Attendance was significantly higher in the out-of-home care group and served a protective role. Neglect, sexual abuse, and physical abuse were associated with low reading scores. Pre-existing adversity was also significantly associated with achievement. Results support policies and practices to engage children and families in regular school attendance, and highlight a need for further strategies to prevent maltreatment and disadvantage from restricting children's opportunities for success. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Risk factor management in a contemporary Australian population at increased cardiovascular disease risk.

PubMed

Campbell, D J; Coller, J M; Gong, F F; McGrady, M; Prior, D L; Boffa, U; Shiel, L; Liew, D; Wolfe, R; Owen, A J; Krum, H; Reid, C M

2017-11-14

Effective management of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease risk factors offers longer, healthier lives and savings in health care. We examined risk factor management in participants of the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure (SCREEN-HF) study, a self-selected population at increased cardiovascular disease risk recruited from members of a health insurance fund in Melbourne and Shepparton, Australia. Inclusion criteria were age ≥60 years with one or more of self-reported ischaemic or other heart disease, irregular or rapid heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, renal impairment, or treatment for hypertension or diabetes for ≥2 years. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure or cardiac abnormality on echocardiography or other imaging. Medical history, clinical examination, full blood examination and biochemistry (without lipids and HbA1c) were performed for 3847 participants on enrolment, and blood pressure, lipids and HbA1c were measured 1-2 years after enrolment for 3202 participants. Despite 99% of 3294 participants with hypertension receiving antihypertensive medication, half had blood pressures >140/90 mmHg. Approximately 77% of participants were overweight or obese, with one third obese. Additionally, 74% of participants at high cardiovascular disease risk had low density lipoprotein cholesterol levels ≥2 mmol/l, one third of diabetic participants had HbA1c >7%, 22% had estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 ml/min/1.73m 2 , and substantial proportions had under-utilisation of antiplatelet therapy, anticoagulation for atrial fibrillation, and were physically inactive. This population demonstrated substantial potential to reduce cardiovascular and renal morbidity and mortality and health care costs through more effective management of modifiable risk factors. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Heart in space: effect of the extraterrestrial environment on the cardiovascular system.

PubMed

Hughson, Richard L; Helm, Alexander; Durante, Marco

2018-03-01

National space agencies and private corporations aim at an extended presence of humans in space in the medium to long term. Together with currently suboptimal technology, microgravity and cosmic rays raise health concerns about deep-space exploration missions. Both of these physical factors affect the cardiovascular system, whose gravity-dependence is pronounced. Heart and vascular function are, therefore, susceptible to substantial changes in weightlessness. The altered cardiovascular function in space causes physiological problems in the postflight period. A compromised cardiovascular system can be excessively vulnerable to space radiation, synergistically resulting in increased damage. The space radiation dose is significantly lower than in patients undergoing radiotherapy, in whom cardiac damage is well-documented following cancer therapy in the thoracic region. Nevertheless, epidemiological findings suggest an increased risk of late cardiovascular disease even with low doses of radiation. Moreover, the peculiar biological effectiveness of heavy ions in cosmic rays might increase this risk substantially. However, whether radiation-induced cardiovascular effects have a threshold at low doses is still unclear. The main countermeasures to mitigate the effect of the space environment on cardiac function are physical exercise, antioxidants, nutraceuticals, and radiation shielding.

Testosterone and the Heart.

PubMed

Goodale, Travis; Sadhu, Archana; Petak, Steven; Robbins, Richard

2017-01-01

Testosterone (T) has a number of important effects on the cardiovascular system. In men, T levels begin to decrease after age 40, and this decrease has been associated with an increase in all-cause mortality and cardiovascular (CV) risk. Low T levels in men may increase their risk of developing coronary artery disease (CAD), metabolic syndrome, and type 2 diabetes. Reduced T levels in men with congestive heart failure (CHF) portends a poor prognosis and is associated with increased mortality. Studies have reported a reduced CV risk with higher endogenous T concentration, improvement of known CV risk factors with T therapy, and reduced mortality in T-deficient men who underwent T replacement therapy versus untreated men. Testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) has been shown to improve myocardial ischemia in men with CAD, improve exercise capacity in patients with CHF, and improve serum glucose levels, HbA1c, and insulin resistance in men with diabetes and prediabetes. There are no large long-term, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trials to provide definitive conclusions about TRT and CV risk. However, there currently is no credible evidence that T therapy increases CV risk and substantial evidence that it does not. In fact, existing data suggests that T therapy may offer CV benefits to men.

Shift and night work and long working hours--a systematic review of safety implications.

PubMed

Wagstaff, Anthony Sverre; Sigstad Lie, Jenny-Anne

2011-05-01

In order to devise effective preventive strategies, it is important to study workplace stressors that might increase the risk of workplace accidents - both affecting workers themselves as well as causing harm to third-parties. The aim of this report is to provide a systematic, updated overview and scientific review of empirical research regarding accidents in relation to long work hours and shift work, primarily based on epidemiological studies. The search for articles was part of a large review study on the effects of work hours on various health outcomes, safety, and performance. The search strategy included 5 international scientific databases, and nearly 7000 articles were initially identified using our search string. Following the application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, 443 publications were found and evaluated using a pre-defined scoring system. Of these, 43 concerned safety and accidents but only 14 were considered to be of high quality (total score 2 or 3 on a scale from 0-3) and therefore used for this study. Both shift work and long working hours present a substantial and well-documented detrimental effect on safety - all the studies that are included in this review have one or more significant findings in this respect. The trends are quite coherent although the increases in accident rates are mostly from 50% to 100%. In epidemiological terms, this may be seen as rather small differences. The use of such data is therefore only of importance if the accident incidence is high or if accidents may have large effects. The findings are most relevant to safety-critical activities such as the transport and health sectors. Work periods >8 hours carry an increased risk of accidents that cumulates, so that the increased risk of accidents at around 12 hours is twice the risk at 8 hours. Shift work including nights carries a substantial increased risk of accidents, whereas "pure" night work may bring some protection against this effect due to resynchronization. The evaluated studies give no clear indications of any age or gender being specifically susceptible or protected against the effects of work times scheduling on accident risk.

Climate change. Accelerating extinction risk from climate change.

PubMed

Urban, Mark C

2015-05-01

Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change-induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Rheumatoid Arthritis and Cardiovascular Disease: Update on Treatment Issues

PubMed Central

Barbhaiya, Medha; Solomon, Daniel H.

2016-01-01

Purpose of review This review examines thresholds for treatment of traditional cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors among RA patients and whether RA-specific treatment modulates cardiovascular risk. Recent findings There are substantial data demonstrating an increased CVD risk among patients with RA. Both traditional CVD risk factors and inflammation contribute to this risk. Recent epidemiologic studies strengthen the case that aggressive immunosuppression with biologic DMARDs, such as TNF antagonists, is associated with a reduced risk of CVD events. However, to data, there are no randomized controlled trials published regarding the management of CVD in RA. Summary Epidemiologic evidence continues to accumulate regarding the relationship between the effects of traditional CVD risk factors and RA-specific treatments on CV outcomes in RA. The field needs randomized controlled trials to better guide management. PMID:23466960

Hearing loss in children with very low birth weight: current review of epidemiology and pathophysiology

PubMed Central

Cristobal, R; Oghalai, J S

2013-01-01

An association between birth weight <1500 g (very low birth weight (VLBW)) and hearing loss has been long recognised. As universal hearing screening programmes have become widely implemented and the survival rate of VLBW babies in modern intensive care units has increased, we have gained a substantially better understanding of the nature of this problem. However, many gaps in our knowledge base exist. This review describes recent data on hearing loss in the VLBW population and explains the current level of understanding about the physiological basis underlying the auditory deficits in these patients. Although VLBW alone may not have a severe impact on hearing, it is commonly associated with multiple other risk factors that can alter hearing in a synergistic fashion. Therefore, the risk of hearing loss is substantially higher than in the general newborn population. Also, it is important to perform a more comprehensive audiometric evaluation than standard otoacoustic emission screening for infants who are in the neonatal intensive care unit in order not to miss hearing loss due to retrocochlear pathology. Furthermore, children with VLBW are also at increased risk of experiencing progressive or delayed-onset hearing loss, and thus should continue to have serial hearing evaluations after discharge from the neonatal intensive care unit. PMID:18941031

Comparing excess costs across multiple corporate populations.

PubMed

Wright, Douglas; Adams, Laura; Beard, Marshall J; Burton, Wayne N; Hirschland, David; McDonald, Timothy; Napier, Deborah; Galante, Salvatore; Smith, Thomas; Edington, D W

2004-09-01

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship of health risk level to charged medical costs and determine the excess cost of higher risk individuals compared to low risk. Two years of medical claims from six corporations were used to determine costs of health risk assessment (HRA) participants and nonparticipants. A total of 165,770 employees, 21,124 of which took an HRA, were used for the study. Costs increased as risk level increased. There were no significant differences within a risk level between companies for the cost ratio. Percent of medical costs due to excess risk ranged from 15.0-30.8% for HRA participants and 23.8-38.3% for the study population. Cost patterns were consistent across companies. Excess cost as the result of increased risk level accounted for a substantial portion of the cost at each company. These results can be used to justify the need for a health-promotion program and to estimate potential savings as the result of excess risk. Even without the use of an HRA, health practitioners should feel confident stating that excess risk accounts for at least 25% to 30% of medical costs per year across a wide variety of companies, regardless of industry or demographics. The numbers can be used as a realistic estimate for any health promotion program financial proposal.

Risk factors of patients with and without postoperative nausea (PON).

PubMed

Dienemann, Jacqueline; Hudgens, Amanda N; Martin, Dana; Jones, Holly; Hunt, Ronald; Blackwell, Richard; Norton, H James; Divine, George

2012-08-01

This purpose of this analysis was to study risk factors of postoperative nausea (PON) and their strength. Data were obtained during the screening phase of a controlled clinical trial of aromatherapy for PON. In a sample of 1151 postsurgical subjects, 301 (26.2%) reported PON. Significant risk factors identified in the order of odds ratios for nausea were female gender, gastrointestinal surgery, use of volatile anesthesia gases, history of PON, history of motion sickness, and use of opioids after surgery. Although still over 1.0, the risk factors of length of surgery over 1 hour and gynecologic surgery had the lowest odds ratios. Likelihood of nausea increased significantly with the number of significant risk factors (P<.0001). Administration of preventive antiemetic medication also increased with the number of significant risk factors (P<.0001). Among 301 subjects reporting nausea, 49 (16.28%) received preventive medication. Despite prevention efforts, PON remains a substantial side effect for many surgical patients. Copyright © 2012 American Society of PeriAnesthesia Nurses. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A randomized controlled trial to prevent childhood obesity through early childhood feeding and parenting guidance: Rationale and design of study

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Early and rapid growth in infants is strongly associated with early development and persistence of obesity in young children. Substantial research has linked child obesity/overweight to increased risks for serious health outcomes, which include adverse physical, psychological, behavioral, or social ...

Young Adults and Higher Education: Barriers and Breakthroughs to Success

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brock, Thomas

2010-01-01

Although "access" to higher education has increased substantially over the past forty years, student "success" in college--as measured by persistence and degree attainment--has not improved at all. Thomas Brock reviews systematic research findings on the effectiveness of various interventions designed to help at-risk students remain in college.…

Review and Analysis of Laws Related to Strangulation in 50 States

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Laughon, Kathryn; Glass, Nancy; Worrell, Claude

2009-01-01

Nonlethal strangulation of intimate partners has substantial direct health effects and is associated with an increased risk of later lethal violence by a partner or ex-intimate partner but can be difficult to prosecute under felony assault statutes. After review of state laws regarding assault, the authors identified 10 states with specific…

Human Cutaneous Anthrax, Georgia 2010–2012

PubMed Central

Kracalik, Ian; Malania, Lile; Tsertsvadze, Nikoloz; Manvelyan, Julietta; Bakanidze, Lela; Imnadze, Paata; Tsanava, Shota

2014-01-01

We assessed the occurrence of human cutaneous anthrax in Georgia during 2010–-2012 by examining demographic and spatial characteristics of reported cases. Reporting increased substantially, as did clustering of cases near urban centers. Control efforts, including education about anthrax and livestock vaccination, can be directed at areas of high risk. PMID:24447721

Genetic Relationships Between Schizophrenia, Bipolar Disorder, and Schizoaffective Disorder

PubMed Central

Cardno, Alastair G.

2014-01-01

There is substantial evidence for partial overlap of genetic influences on schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, with family, twin, and adoption studies showing a genetic correlation between the disorders of around 0.6. Results of genome-wide association studies are consistent with commonly occurring genetic risk variants, contributing to both the shared and nonshared aspects, while studies of large, rare chromosomal structural variants, particularly copy number variants, show a stronger influence on schizophrenia than bipolar disorder to date. Schizoaffective disorder has been less investigated but shows substantial familial overlap with both schizophrenia and bipolar disorder. A twin analysis is consistent with genetic influences on schizoaffective episodes being entirely shared with genetic influences on schizophrenic and manic episodes, while association studies suggest the possibility of some relatively specific genetic influences on broadly defined schizoaffective disorder, bipolar subtype. Further insights into genetic relationships between these disorders are expected as studies continue to increase in sample size and in technical and analytical sophistication, information on phenotypes beyond clinical diagnoses are increasingly incorporated, and approaches such as next-generation sequencing identify additional types of genetic risk variant. PMID:24567502

The impact of pre-pregnancy body mass index on the risk of gestational diabetes.

PubMed

Singh, Jasbir; Huang, Chun-Chih; Driggers, Rita W; Timofeev, Julia; Amini, Dennis; Landy, Helain J; Miodovnik, Menachem; Umans, Jason G

2012-01-01

To evaluate the effect of pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) on the risk of developing gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) in a large unselected population. We performed a case control study using data collected in The Consortium on Safe Labor database. The association between BMI and GDM was evaluated both using BMI weight categories adopted by the National Institute of Health, and separately using BMI as a continuous variable. Multiple logistic regression analyses were used to evaluate the effects of BMI, age, ethnicity, parity, chronic hypertension and antenatal steroid use on the risk of GDM. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to approximate relative risks of GDM. A p value of <0.05 was considered significant. After controlling for other factors, the risk of GDM increased with an increasing BMI across all weight categories. For each 1 kg/m(2) increase of BMI the OR of developing GDM was 1.08 (95% CI 1.08-1.09) and for each 5 kg/m(2) increase, the OR was 1.48 (95% CI 1.45-1.51). GDM is a multifactorial disorder and pre-pregnancy BMI plays an important role in that risk. Modest changes in pre-pregnancy BMI may decrease the risk of GDM substantially.

Different effects of age, adiposity and physical activity on the risk of ankle, wrist and hip fractures in postmenopausal women

PubMed Central

Armstrong, Miranda E.G.; Cairns, Benjamin J.; Banks, Emily; Green, Jane; Reeves, Gillian K.; Beral, Valerie

2012-01-01

While increasing age, decreasing body mass index (BMI), and physical inactivity are known to increase hip fracture risk, whether these factors have similar effects on other common fractures is not well established. We used prospectively-collected data from a large cohort to examine the role of these factors on the risk of incident ankle, wrist and hip fractures in postmenopausal women. 1,155,304 postmenopausal participants in the Million Women Study with a mean age of 56.0 (SD 4.8) years, provided information about lifestyle, anthropometric, and reproductive factors at recruitment in 1996–2001. All participants were linked to National Health Service cause-specific hospital records for day-case or overnight admissions. During follow-up for an average of 8.3 years per woman, 6807 women had an incident ankle fracture, 9733 an incident wrist fracture, and 5267 an incident hip fracture. Adjusted absolute and relative risks (RRs) for incident ankle, wrist, and hip fractures were calculated using Cox regression models. Age-specific rates for wrist and hip fractures increased sharply with age, whereas rates for ankle fracture did not. Cumulative absolute risks from ages 50 to 84 years per 100 women were 2.5 (95%CI 2.2–2.8) for ankle fracture, 5.0 (95%CI 4.4–5.5) for wrist fracture, and 6.2 (95%CI 5.5–7.0) for hip fracture. Compared with lean women (BMI < 20 kg/m2), obese women (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) had a three-fold increased risk of ankle fracture (RR = 3.07; 95%CI 2.53–3.74), but a substantially reduced risk of wrist fracture and especially of hip fracture (RR = 0.57; 0.51–0.64 and 0.23; 0.21–0.27, respectively). Physical activity was associated with a reduced risk of hip fracture but was not associated with ankle or wrist fracture risk. Ankle, wrist and hip fractures are extremely common in postmenopausal women, but the associations with age, adiposity, and physical activity differ substantially between the three fracture sites. PMID:22465850

The Epidemiology of Uric Acid and Fructose

PubMed Central

Rho, Young Hee; Zhu, Yanyan; Choi, Hyon K.

2011-01-01

During the past few decades, the mean serum uric acid levels and the prevalence of hyperuricemia in the general population appear to have increased. Correspondingly, the prevalence and incidence of gout have doubled. Potential reasons behind these trends include the increasing prevalence of obesity and metabolic syndrome, western life-style factors, increased prevalence of medical conditions (e.g. renal conditions, hypertension, and cardiovascular disorders) and use of medications that increase uric acid levels (e.g. diuretics and low-dose aspirin). The substantial increase in sugar-sweetened soft drinks and associated fructose consumption has also coincided with the secular trend of hyperuricemia and gout. Recently, several large-scale epidemiologic studies have clarified a number of these long-suspected risk factors in relation with hyperuricemia and gout. Furthermore, recent studies have illuminated the substantial comorbidities of hyperuricemia and gout, particularly metabolic-cardiovascular-renal conditions. While many prospective studies have suggested an independent association between serum uric acid levels and the future risk of cardiovascular-metabolic morbidities and mortality, only a limited number of randomized clinical trials and observational studies have recently demonstrated that the use of allopurinol can be beneficial against these outcomes. As these data are scarce and the effects of allopurinol might not be limited to lowering serum uric acid levels, the potential causal role of uric acid on these outcomes remains to be clarified with further studies. PMID:22000647

Long-term adverse outcomes in survivors of childhood bone sarcoma: the British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study

PubMed Central

Fidler, M M; Frobisher, C; Guha, J; Wong, K; Kelly, J; Winter, D L; Sugden, E; Duncan, R; Whelan, J; Reulen, R C; Hawkins, M M

2015-01-01

Background: With improved survival, more bone sarcoma survivors are approaching middle age making it crucial to investigate the late effects of their cancer and its treatment. We investigated the long-term risks of adverse outcomes among 5-year bone sarcoma survivors within the British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Methods: Cause-specific mortality and risk of subsequent primary neoplasms (SPNs) were investigated for 664 bone sarcoma survivors. Use of health services, health and marital status, alcohol and smoking habits, and educational qualifications were investigated for survivors who completed a questionnaire. Results: Survivors were seven times more likely to experience all-cause mortality than expected, and there were substantial differences in risk depending on tumour type. Beyond 25 years follow-up the risk of dying from all-causes was comparable to the general population. This is in contrast to dying before 25 years where the risk was 12.7-fold that expected. Survivors were also four times more likely to develop a SPN than expected, where the excess was restricted to 5–24 years post diagnosis. Increased health-care usage and poor health status were also found. Nonetheless, for some psychosocial outcomes survivors were better off than expected. Conclusions: Up to 25 years after 5-year survival, bone sarcoma survivors are at substantial risk of death and SPNs, but this is greatly reduced thereafter. As 95% of all excess deaths before 25 years follow-up were due to recurrences and SPNs, increased monitoring of survivors could prevent mortality. Furthermore, bone and breast SPNs should be a particular concern. Since there are variations in the magnitude of excess risk depending on the specific adverse outcome under investigation and whether the survivors were initially diagnosed with osteosarcoma or Ewing sarcoma, risks need to be assessed in relation to these factors. These findings should provide useful evidence for risk stratification and updating clinical follow-up guidelines. PMID:25989269

Five-year all-cause mortality rates across five categories of substantiated elder abuse occurring in the community.

PubMed

Burnett, Jason; Jackson, Shelly L; Sinha, Arup K; Aschenbrenner, Andrew R; Murphy, Kathleen Pace; Xia, Rui; Diamond, Pamela M

2016-01-01

Elder abuse increases the likelihood of early mortality, but little is known regarding which types of abuse may be resulting in the greatest mortality risk. This study included N = 1,670 cases of substantiated elder abuse and estimated the 5-year all-cause mortality for five types of elder abuse (caregiver neglect, physical abuse, emotional abuse, financial exploitation, and polyvictimization). Statistically significant differences in 5-year mortality risks were found between abuse types and across gender. Caregiver neglect and financial exploitation had the lowest survival rates, underscoring the value of considering the long-term consequences associated with different forms of abuse. Likewise, mortality differences between genders and abuse types indicate the need to consider this interaction in elder abuse case investigations and responses. Further mortality studies are needed in this population to better understand these patterns and implications for public health and clinical management of community-dwelling elder abuse victims.

Efficacy of dietary behavior modification for preserving cardiovascular health and longevity.

PubMed

Pryde, Moira McAllister; Kannel, William Bernard

2010-12-28

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) and its predisposing risk factors are major lifestyle and behavioral determinants of longevity. Dietary lifestyle choices such as a heart healthy diet, regular exercise, a lean weight, moderate alcohol consumption, and smoking cessation have been shown to substantially reduce CVD and increase longevity. Recent research has shown that men and women who adhere to this lifestyle can substantially reduce their risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). The preventive benefits of maintaining a healthy lifestyle exceed those reported for using medication and procedures. Among the modifiable preventive measures, diet is of paramount importance, and recent data suggest some misconceptions and uncertainties that require reconsideration. These include commonly accepted recommendations about polyunsaturated fat intake, processed meat consumption, fish choices and preparation, transfatty acids, low carbohydrate diets, egg consumption, coffee, added sugar, soft drink beverages, glycemic load, chocolate, orange juice, nut consumption, vitamin D supplements, food portion size, and alcohol.

Lifetime risk: childhood obesity and cardiovascular risk.

PubMed

Ayer, Julian; Charakida, Marietta; Deanfield, John E; Celermajer, David S

2015-06-07

In a recent report, the worldwide prevalence of childhood obesity was estimated to have increased by 47% between 1980 and 2013. As a result, substantial concerns have been raised about the future burden of cardiovascular (CV) disease that could ensue. The purpose of this review is to summarize and interpret (i) the evidence linking early life obesity with adverse changes in CV structure and function in childhood, (ii) the lifetime risk for CV disease resulting from obesity in childhood, and (iii) the potential effects of lifestyle interventions in childhood to ameliorate these risks. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2015. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Consent and labeling in the use of infectious risk donor kidneys: a response to "Information Overload.

PubMed

Bowring, Mary G; Massie, Allan B; Henderson, Macey; Segev, Dorry L

2018-06-19

We thank Singh et al for their interest in our work on the survival benefit conferred by increased infectious risk kidneys (IRD) (1). We agree that our findings of substantial benefit and elevated discard rates of IRD kidneys, coupled with existing literature on their low infectious risk, support broader utilization of these so-labeled kidneys. Physicians and patients considering these offers can also turn to our risk calculator (www.transplantmodels.com/ird) to quantify the personalized survival benefit of accepting an IRD kidney versus waiting for the next non-IRD option (2). This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and chronic vascular complications of diabetes mellitus.

PubMed

Targher, Giovanni; Lonardo, Amedeo; Byrne, Christopher D

2018-02-01

Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and diabetes mellitus are common diseases that often coexist and might act synergistically to increase the risk of hepatic and extra-hepatic clinical outcomes. NAFLD affects up to 70-80% of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and up to 30-40% of adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus. The coexistence of NAFLD and diabetes mellitus increases the risk of developing not only the more severe forms of NAFLD but also chronic vascular complications of diabetes mellitus. Indeed, substantial evidence links NAFLD with an increased risk of developing cardiovascular disease and other cardiac and arrhythmic complications in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus or type 2 diabetes mellitus. NAFLD is also associated with an increased risk of developing microvascular diabetic complications, especially chronic kidney disease. This Review focuses on the strong association between NAFLD and the risk of chronic vascular complications in patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus or type 2 diabetes mellitus, thereby promoting an increased awareness of the extra-hepatic implications of this increasingly prevalent and burdensome liver disease. We also discuss the putative underlying mechanisms by which NAFLD contributes to vascular diseases, as well as the emerging role of changes in the gut microbiota (dysbiosis) in the pathogenesis of NAFLD and associated vascular diseases.

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

PubMed Central

Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

2014-01-01

The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence. PMID:24825660

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation.

PubMed

Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W; Storlazzi, Curt D; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C; Airoldi, Laura

2014-05-13

The world's coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

The effectiveness of coral reefs for coastal hazard risk reduction and adaptation

USGS Publications Warehouse

Ferrario, Filippo; Beck, Michael W.; Storlazzi, Curt D.; Micheli, Fiorenza; Shepard, Christine C.; Airoldi, Laura

2014-01-01

The world’s coastal zones are experiencing rapid development and an increase in storms and flooding. These hazards put coastal communities at heightened risk, which may increase with habitat loss. Here we analyse globally the role and cost effectiveness of coral reefs in risk reduction. Meta-analyses reveal that coral reefs provide substantial protection against natural hazards by reducing wave energy by an average of 97%. Reef crests alone dissipate most of this energy (86%). There are 100 million or more people who may receive risk reduction benefits from reefs or bear hazard mitigation and adaptation costs if reefs are degraded. We show that coral reefs can provide comparable wave attenuation benefits to artificial defences such as breakwaters, and reef defences can be enhanced cost effectively. Reefs face growing threats yet there is opportunity to guide adaptation and hazard mitigation investments towards reef restoration to strengthen this first line of coastal defence.

Wildlife strike risk assessment in several Italian airports: lessons from BRI and a new methodology implementation.

PubMed

Soldatini, Cecilia; Albores-Barajas, Yuri Vladimir; Lovato, Tomas; Andreon, Adriano; Torricelli, Patrizia; Montemaggiori, Alessandro; Corsa, Cosimo; Georgalas, Vyron

2011-01-01

The presence of wildlife in airport areas poses substantial hazards to aviation. Wildlife aircraft collisions (hereafter wildlife strikes) cause losses in terms of human lives and direct monetary losses for the aviation industry. In recent years, wildlife strikes have increased in parallel with air traffic increase and species habituation to anthropic areas. In this paper, we used an ecological approach to wildlife strike risk assessment to eight Italian international airports. The main achievement is a site-specific analysis that avoids flattening wildlife strike events on a large scale while maintaining comparable airport risk assessments. This second version of the Birdstrike Risk Index (BRI2) is a sensitive tool that provides different time scale results allowing appropriate management planning. The methodology applied has been developed in accordance with the Italian Civil Aviation Authority, which recognizes it as a national standard implemented in the advisory circular ENAC APT-01B.

Nutrition in early life, and risk of cancer and metabolic disease: alternative endings in an epigenetic tale?

PubMed Central

Burdge, Graham C; Lillycrop, Karen A; Jackson, Alan A

2008-01-01

There is substantial evidence which shows that constraints in the early life environment is an important determinant of risk of metabolic and cardiovascular disease. There is emerging evidence that higher birth weight, which reflects a more abundant prenatal environment, is associated with increased risk of cancer, in particular breast cancer and childhood leukaemia. Using specific examples from epidemiology and experimental studies, this review discusses the hypothesis that increased susceptibility to cardiovascular, metabolic disease and cancer have a common origin in developmental changes induced in the developing fetus by aspects of the intra uterine environment including nutrition which involve stable changes to the epigenetic regulation of specific genes. However, the induction of specific disease risk is dependent upon the nature of the environmental challenge and interactions between the susceptibility set by the altered epigenome and the environment throughout the life course. PMID:19079817

Wildlife Strike Risk Assessment in Several Italian Airports: Lessons from BRI and a New Methodology Implementation

PubMed Central

Soldatini, Cecilia; Albores-Barajas, Yuri Vladimir; Lovato, Tomas; Andreon, Adriano; Torricelli, Patrizia; Montemaggiori, Alessandro; Corsa, Cosimo; Georgalas, Vyron

2011-01-01

The presence of wildlife in airport areas poses substantial hazards to aviation. Wildlife aircraft collisions (hereafter wildlife strikes) cause losses in terms of human lives and direct monetary losses for the aviation industry. In recent years, wildlife strikes have increased in parallel with air traffic increase and species habituation to anthropic areas. In this paper, we used an ecological approach to wildlife strike risk assessment to eight Italian international airports. The main achievement is a site-specific analysis that avoids flattening wildlife strike events on a large scale while maintaining comparable airport risk assessments. This second version of the Birdstrike Risk Index (BRI2) is a sensitive tool that provides different time scale results allowing appropriate management planning. The methodology applied has been developed in accordance with the Italian Civil Aviation Authority, which recognizes it as a national standard implemented in the advisory circular ENAC APT-01B. PMID:22194950

The way to a healthy future for National Forest ecosystems in the West : what role can silviculture and prescribed fire play?

Treesearch

Douglas W. MacCleery

1995-01-01

The 1994 wildfires in the U.S. West have highlighted a problem of forest health and fuel buildups that has been increasing for decades. In many Western forest ecosystems, forest biomass per acre has risen substantially since the 1940s and many forests have dense, fire-prone understories. If current trends continue, there will be: 1) increasing risks to National Forest...

Less subclinical atherosclerosis in Japanese men in Japan than in White men in the United States in the post-World War II birth cohort.

PubMed

Sekikawa, Akira; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Kadowaki, Takashi; El-Saed, Aiman; Okamura, Tomonori; Takamiya, Tomoko; Kashiwagi, Atsunori; Edmundowicz, Daniel; Murata, Kiyoshi; Sutton-Tyrrell, Kim; Maegawa, Hiroshi; Evans, Rhobert W; Kita, Yoshikuni; Kuller, Lewis H

2007-03-15

Coronary heart disease incidence and mortality remain very low in Japan despite major dietary changes and increases in risk factors that should have resulted in a substantial increase in coronary heart disease rates (Japanese paradox). Primary genetic effects are unlikely, given the substantial increase in coronary heart disease in Japanese migrating to the United States. For men aged 40-49 years, levels of total cholesterol and blood pressure have been similar in Japan and the United States throughout their lifetimes. The authors tested the hypothesis that levels of subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary artery calcification, and intima-media thickness of the carotid artery in men aged 40-49 years are similar in Japan and the United States. They conducted a population-based study of 493 randomly selected men: 250 in Kusatsu City, Shiga, Japan, and 243 White men in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, in 2002-2005. Compared with the Whites, the Japanese had a less favorable profile regarding many risk factors. The prevalence ratio for the presence of a coronary calcium score of > or =10 for the Japanese compared with the Whites was 0.52 (95% confidence interval: 0.35, 0.76). Mean intima-media thickness was significantly lower in the Japanese (0.616 mm (standard error, 0.005) vs. 0.672 (standard error, 0.005) mm, p < 0.01). Both associations remained significant after adjusting for risk factors. The findings warrant further investigations.

Less subclinical atherosclerosis in Japanese men in Japan than in white men in the United States in the post World-War-II birth cohort

PubMed Central

Sekikawa, Akira; Ueshima, Hirotsugu; Kadowaki, Takashi; El-Saed, Aiman; Okamura, Tomonori; Takamiya, Tomoko; Kashiwagi, Atsunori; Edmundowicz, Daniel; Murata, Kiyoshi; Sutton-Tyrrell, Kim; Maegawa, Hiroshi; Evans, Rhobert W.; Kita, Yoshikuni; Kuller, Lewis H.

2013-01-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) incidence and mortality remain very low in Japan despite major dietary changes and increases in CHD risk factors that should have resulted in substantial increase in CHD rates (Japanese paradox). Primary genetic effects are unlikely, given the substantial increase in CHD in migrant Japanese to the U.S. For men aged 40–49, levels of total cholesterol and blood pressure have been similar in Japan and the U.S. throughout their lifetime. The authors tested the hypothesis that levels of subclinical atherosclerosis, coronary artery calcification and intima-media thickness of the carotid artery (IMT), in men aged 40–49 are similar in Japan and the U.S. The authors conducted a population-based study of 493 randomly-selected men: 250 men in Kusatsu, Shiga, Japan, and 243 white men in Allegheny County, Pennsylvania, U.S. in 2002–2005. The Japanese had a less favorable profile of many risk factors than the whites. Prevalence ratio for the presence of coronary calcium score ≥10 in the Japanese compared to the whites was 0.52 (95% CI, 0.35, 0.76). Mean (SE) IMT was significantly lower in the Japanese (0.616 (0.005) versus 0.672 (0.005) mm, p<0.01). Both associations remained significant after adjusting for risk factors. The findings warrant further investigations. PMID:17244636

Associations between multiple health risk behaviors and mental health among Chinese college students.

PubMed

Ye, Yong-ling; Wang, Pei-gang; Qu, Geng-cong; Yuan, Shuai; Phongsavan, Philayrath; He, Qi-qiang

2016-01-01

Although there is substantial evidence that health risk behaviors increase risks of premature morbidity and mortality, little is known about the multiple health risk behaviors in Chinese college students. Here, we investigated the prevalence of multiple health risk behaviors and its relation to mental health among Chinese college students. A cross-sectional study was conducted in Wuhan, China from May to June 2012. The students reported their health risk behaviors using self-administered questionnaires. Depression and anxiety were assessed using the self-rating depression scale and self-rating anxiety scale, respectively. A total of 2422 college students (1433 males) aged 19.7 ± 1.2 years were participated in the study. The prevalence of physical inactivity, sleep disturbance, poor dietary behavior, Internet addiction disorder (IAD), frequent alcohol use and current smoking was 62.0, 42.6, 29.8, 22.3, 11.6 and 9.3%, respectively. Significantly increased risks for depression and anxiety were found among students with frequent alcohol use, sleep disturbance, poor dietary behavior and IAD. Two-step cluster analysis identified two different clusters. Participants in the cluster with more unhealthy behaviors showed significantly increased risk for depression (odds ratio (OR): 2.21; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.83, 2.67) and anxiety (OR: 2.32; 95% CI: 1.85, 2.92). This study indicates that a relatively high prevalence of multiple health risk behaviors was found among Chinese college students. Furthermore, the clustering of health risk behaviors was significantly associated with increased risks for depression and anxiety.

Using animal models to study post-partum psychiatric disorders.

PubMed

Perani, C V; Slattery, D A

2014-10-01

The post-partum period represents a time during which all maternal organisms undergo substantial plasticity in a wide variety of systems in order to ensure the well-being of the offspring. Although this time is generally associated with increased calmness and decreased stress responses, for a substantial subset of mothers, this period represents a time of particular risk for the onset of psychiatric disorders. Thus, post-partum anxiety, depression and, to a lesser extent, psychosis may develop, and not only affect the well-being of the mother but also place at risk the long-term health of the infant. Although the risk factors for these disorders, as well as normal peripartum-associated adaptations, are well known, the underlying aetiology of post-partum psychiatric disorders remains poorly understood. However, there have been a number of attempts to model these disorders in basic research, which aim to reveal their underlying mechanisms. In the following review, we first discuss known peripartum adaptations and then describe post-partum mood and anxiety disorders, including their risk factors, prevalence and symptoms. Thereafter, we discuss the animal models that have been designed in order to study them and what they have revealed about their aetiology to date. Overall, these studies show that it is feasible to study such complex disorders in animal models, but that more needs to be done in order to increase our knowledge of these severe and debilitating mood and anxiety disorders. © 2014 The British Pharmacological Society.

Risk analysis for U.S. offshore wind farms: the need for an integrated approach.

PubMed

Staid, Andrea; Guikema, Seth D

2015-04-01

Wind power is becoming an increasingly important part of the global energy portfolio, and there is growing interest in developing offshore wind farms in the United States to better utilize this resource. Wind farms have certain environmental benefits, notably near-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, particulates, and other contaminants of concern. However, there are significant challenges ahead in achieving large-scale integration of wind power in the United States, particularly offshore wind. Environmental impacts from wind farms are a concern, and these are subject to a number of on-going studies focused on risks to the environment. However, once a wind farm is built, the farm itself will face a number of risks from a variety of hazards, and managing these risks is critical to the ultimate achievement of long-term reductions in pollutant emissions from clean energy sources such as wind. No integrated framework currently exists for assessing risks to offshore wind farms in the United States, which poses a challenge for wind farm risk management. In this "Perspective", we provide an overview of the risks faced by an offshore wind farm, argue that an integrated framework is needed, and give a preliminary starting point for such a framework to illustrate what it might look like. This is not a final framework; substantial work remains. Our intention here is to highlight the research need in this area in the hope of spurring additional research about the risks to wind farms to complement the substantial amount of on-going research on the risks from wind farms. © 2015 Society for Risk Analysis.

Cannabis Effects on Driving Skills

PubMed Central

Hartman, Rebecca L.; Huestis, Marilyn A.

2013-01-01

BACKGROUND Cannabis is the most prevalent illicit drug identified in impaired drivers. The effects of cannabis on driving continue to be debated, making prosecution and legislation difficult. Historically, delays in sample collection, evaluating the inactive Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) metabolite 11-nor-9-carboxy-THC, and polydrug use have complicated epidemiologic evaluations of driver impairment after cannabis use. CONTENT We review and evaluate the current literature on cannabis’ effects on driving, highlighting the epidemiologic and experimental data. Epidemiologic data show that the risk of involvement in a motor vehicle accident (MVA) increases approximately 2-fold after cannabis smoking. The adjusted risk of driver culpability also increases substantially, particularly with increased blood THC concentrations. Studies that have used urine as the biological matrix have not shown an association between cannabis and crash risk. Experimental data show that drivers attempt to compensate by driving more slowly after smoking cannabis, but control deteriorates with increasing task complexity. Cannabis smoking increases lane weaving and impaired cognitive function. Critical-tracking tests, reaction times, divided-attention tasks, and lane-position variability all show cannabis-induced impairment. Despite purported tolerance in frequent smokers, complex tasks still show impairment. Combining cannabis with alcohol enhances impairment, especially lane weaving. SUMMARY Differences in study designs frequently account for inconsistencies in results between studies. Participant-selection bias and confounding factors attenuate ostensible cannabis effects, but the association with MVA often retains significance. Evidence suggests recent smoking and/or blood THC concentrations 2–5 ng/mL are associated with substantial driving impairment, particularly in occasional smokers. Future cannabis-and-driving research should emphasize challenging tasks, such as divided attention, and include occasional and chronic daily cannabis smokers. PMID:23220273

Impact of Proteinuria and Glomerular Filtration Rate on Risk of Thromboembolism in Atrial Fibrillation: the ATRIA Study

PubMed Central

Go, Alan S.; Fang, Margaret C.; Udaltsova, Natalia; Chang, Yuchiao; Pomernacki, Niela K.; Borowsky, Leila; Singer, Daniel E.

2009-01-01

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) substantially increases the risk of ischemic stroke but this risk varies among individual patients with AF. Existing risk stratification schemes have limited predictive ability. Chronic kidney disease is a major cardiovascular risk factor, but whether it independently increases the risk for ischemic stroke in persons with AF is unknown. Methods and Results We examined how chronic kidney disease (reduced glomerular filtration rate or proteinuria) affects risk of thromboembolism off anticoagulation in patients with AF. We estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease equation and proteinuria from urine dipstick results found in laboratory databases. Patient characteristics, warfarin use, and thromboembolic events were ascertained from clinical databases, with validation of thromboembolism by chart review. Results During 33,165 person-years off anticoagulation among 10,908 patients with atrial fibrillation, we observed 676 incident thromboembolic events. After adjustment for known risk factors for stroke and other confounders, proteinuria increased the risk of thromboembolism by 54% (relative risk [RR] 1.54, 1.29 to 1.85) and there was a graded, increased risk of stroke associated with progressively lower level of eGFR compared with eGFR ≥60 (in units of ml/min/1.73 m2): RR 1.16 (95% CI: 0.95−1.40) for eGFR 45−59 and RR 1.39 (95% CI: 1.13−1.71) for eGFR <45 (P=0.0082 for trend). Conclusions . Chronic kidney disease increases the risk of thromboembolism in AF independent of other risk factors. Knowing the level of kidney function and presence of proteinuria may improve risk stratification for decision-making about the use of antithrombotic therapy for stroke prevention in AF. PMID:19255343

Pre-Sepsis Depressive Symptoms Are Associated with Incident Cognitive Impairment in Survivors of Severe Sepsis: A Prospective Cohort Study of Older Americans

PubMed Central

Davydow, Dimitry S.; Hough, Catherine L.; Langa, Kenneth M.; Iwashyna, Theodore J.

2012-01-01

Objectives To test the hypothesis that pre-sepsis depressive symptoms are associated with an increased risk of new cognitive impairment in severe sepsis survivors. Design Prospective longitudinal cohort study. Setting Population-based cohort of older U.S. adults interviewed as part of the Health and Retirement Study (1998–2006). Participants 447 patients with normal pre-sepsis cognition who survived 540 hospitalizations for severe sepsis and completed at least one follow-up interview. Measurements Severe sepsis was identified using a validated algorithm in Medicare claims. Depressive symptoms were assessed prospectively with a modified version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Cognitive function was assessed using versions of the Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICS). We used logistic regression with robust standard errors to examine associations between substantial depressive symptoms at any interview before sepsis and incident cognitive impairment (either mild or moderate-to-severe cognitive impairment) at any interview after sepsis. Results The prevalence of substantial depressive symptoms in those with normal cognition before sepsis was 38% (95%Confidence Interval [CI]: 34%, 42%). After severe sepsis, 18% (95%CI: 15%, 20%) of survivors had incident cognitive impairment. In unadjusted analyses, pre-sepsis substantial depressive symptoms were associated with post-sepsis incident cognitive impairment (Odds Ratio [OR] 2.56, 95%CI: 1.53, 4.27). After adjustment for demographics, health-risk behaviors, clinical characteristics of the sepsis episode, and pre-sepsis TICS scores, pre-sepsis substantial depressive symptoms remained the strongest factor associated with post-sepsis incident cognitive impairment (OR 2.58, 95%CI: 1.45, 4.59). Conclusion Pre-sepsis substantial depressive symptoms are independently associated with incident post-sepsis cognitive impairment. Depressed older adults may be particularly at risk for developing cognitive impairment after a serious medical illness. PMID:23176643

Closure of patent foramen ovale for cryptogenic stroke patients: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized trials.

PubMed

Niu, Xuan; Ou-Yang, Guang; Yan, Peng-Fei; Huang, Shu-Lan; Zhang, Zhen-Tao; Zhang, Zhao-Hui

2018-06-01

This systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to investigate the efficacy and safety of transcatheter device closure (TDC) plus anti-thrombotic drugs over medical management alone for patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen oval. PubMed, Embase and Cochrane Library database were searched for randomized controlled clinical trials (RCTs). The primary endpoint is the composite of stroke and transient ischemic attack. The secondary endpoints are all-cause mortality, total serious adverse events, atrial fibrillation and bleeding. Five RCTs with a total of 3440 participants were included. TDC significantly decreased the risk of primary endpoint when compared to medical therapy alone (RR 0.54, 95% CI 0.43-0.69). Further subgroup analyses showed that patients with male gender and with substantial shunt size of foramen ovale significantly benefited from TDC as compared to those with female gender and with no substantial shunt size of foramen oval separately. Moreover, TDC was superior to medical therapy with anti-platelet drug alone (not with anti-coagulation). On the other hand, the incidence of atrial fibrillation was higher in TDC group (RR 4.49, 95% CI 2.02-9.97), with the risk of other adverse events equivalent between the two groups. TDC plus anti-thrombotic drugs is superior than medical therapy alone for secondary prevention of stroke, especially for those with male gender and with substantial shunt size of foramen ovale. Though it may increase the risk of postoperative atrial fibrillation, it would not bring higher risk of all-cause mortality, total adverse events and bleeding.

Suicidal Ideation in College Students Varies across Semesters: The Mediating Role of Belongingness

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Van Orden, Kimberly A.; Witte, Tracy K.; James, Lisa M.; Castro, Yessenia; Gordon, Kathryn H.; Braithwaite, Scott R.; Hollar, Daniel L.; Joiner, Thomas E., Jr.

2008-01-01

The interpersonal-psychological theory of suicidal behavior (Joiner, 2005) proposes that the need to belong is fundamental; when met it can prevent suicide and when thwarted it can substantially increase the risk for suicide. We investigate one source of group-wide variation in belongingness among college students--changes in the social…

Explaining the Rise in Educational Gradients in Mortality. NBER Working Paper No. 15678

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cutler, David M.; Lange, Fabian; Meara, Ellen; Richards, Seth; Ruhm, Christopher J.

2010-01-01

The long-standing inverse relationship between education and mortality strengthened substantially later in the 20th century. This paper examines the reasons for this increase. We show that behavioral risk factors are not of primary importance. Smoking has declined more for the better educated, but not enough to explain the trend. Obesity has risen…

Cost-Effectiveness of Classroom-Based Cognitive Behaviour Therapy in Reducing Symptoms of Depression in Adolescents: A Trial-Based Analysis

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Anderson, Rob; Ukoumunne, Obioha C.; Sayal, Kapil; Phillips, Rhiannon; Taylor, John A.; Spears, Melissa; Araya, Ricardo; Lewis, Glyn; Millings, Abigail; Montgomery, Alan A.; Stallard, Paul

2014-01-01

Background: A substantial minority of adolescents suffer from depression and it is associated with increased risk of suicide, social and educational impairment, and mental health problems in adulthood. A recently conducted randomized controlled trial in England evaluated the effectiveness of a manualized universally delivered age-appropriate CBT…

Socioeconomic Status, Smoking, and Health: A Test of Competing Theories of Cumulative Advantage

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Pampel, Fred C.; Rogers, Richard G.

2004-01-01

Although both low socioeconomic status and cigarette smoking increase health problems and mortality, their possible combined or interactive influence is less clear. On one hand, the health of low status groups may be harmed least by unhealthy behavior such as smoking because, given the substantial health risks produced by limited resources, they…

Antenatal Maternal Stress and Long-Term Effects on Child Neurodevelopment: How and Why?

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Talge, Nicole M.; Neal, Charles; Glover, Vivette

2007-01-01

We review a significant body of evidence from independent prospective studies that if a mother is stressed while pregnant, her child is substantially more likely to have emotional or cognitive problems, including an increased risk of attentional deficit/hyperactivity, anxiety, and language delay. These findings are independent of effects due to…

The Cumulative Burden Borne by Offspring Whose Mothers Were Sexually Abused as Children: Descriptive Results from a Multigenerational Study

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Noll, Jennie G.; Trickett, Penelope K.; Harris, William W.; Putnam, Frank W.

2009-01-01

This multigenerational study empirically demonstrates the extent to which offspring whose parents experienced childhood abuse are at increased risk of being abused or neglected. Females with substantiated childhood sexual abuse and nonabused comparison females were assessed at six points spanning 18 years in a prospective, longitudinal study.…

UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGING THE HEALTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS RESULTING FROM GLOBAL ATMOSPHERIC CHANGE FROM RECOGNITION OF POTENTIAL PROBLEMS TO CONCRETE MITIGATIVE ACTIONS

EPA Science Inventory

As a consequence of anthropogenic activities, we may double the pre-industrial concentration of atmospheric CO2 by the middle of this century. Anthropogenic activities have already doubled the amount of fixed nitrogen that cycles the globe, substantially increasing the flux of re...

Adapting Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for Depressed Adolescents Exposed to Interpersonal Trauma: A Case Study with Two Teens

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

DePrince, Anne P.; Shirk, Stephen R.

2013-01-01

A substantial body of evidence indicates that interpersonal trauma increases risk for adolescent and adult depression. Findings from 4 clinical trials for adolescent depression show poorer response to standard cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) among depressed adolescents with a trauma history than youth without such a history. This paper reports…

Inhibitor Profile of bis(n)-tacrines and N-methylcarbamates on Acetylcholinesterase from Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) Microplus and Phlebotomus Papatasi

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-03-28

babesiosis and anaplasmosis [2]. Economic losses are furthered substantially as normal feeding behavior of tick infestations lead to reduction in milk ...cattle tick (Boophilus microplus) infestation of high yielding dairy cows , Vet. Parisitol. 78 (1998) 65–77. [4] P. Desjeux, The increase in risk factors of

A synthesis of studies of access point density as a risk factor for road accidents.

PubMed

Elvik, Rune

2017-10-01

Studies of the relationship between access point density (number of access points, or driveways, per kilometre of road) and accident frequency or rate (number of accidents per unit of exposure) have consistently found that accident rate increases when access point density increases. This paper presents a formal synthesis of the findings of these studies. It was found that the addition of one access point per kilometre of road is associated with an increase of 4% in the expected number of accidents, controlling for traffic volume. Although studies consistently indicate an increase in accident rate as access point density increases, the size of the increase varies substantially between studies. In addition to reviewing studies of access point density as a risk factor, the paper discusses some issues related to formally synthesising regression coefficients by applying the inverse-variance method of meta-analysis. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of geoengineering on crop yields

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pongratz, J.; Lobell, D. B.; Cao, L.; Caldeira, K.

2011-12-01

The potential of "solar radiation management" (SRM) to reduce future climate change and associated risks has been receiving significant attention in scientific and policy circles. SRM schemes aim to reduce global warming despite increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations by diminishing the amount of solar insolation absorbed by the Earth, for example, by injecting scattering aerosols into the atmosphere. Climate models predict that SRM could fully compensate warming at the global mean in a high-CO2 world. While reduction of global warming may offset a part of the predicted negative effects of future climate change on crop yields, SRM schemes are expected to alter regional climate and to have substantial effects on climate variables other than temperature, such as precipitation. It has therefore been warned that, overall, SRM may pose a risk to food security. Assessments of benefits and risks of geoengineering are imperative, yet such assessments are only beginning to emerge; in particular, effects on global food security have not previously been assessed. Here, for the first time, we combine climate model simulations with models of crop yield responses to climate to assess large-scale changes in yields and food production under SRM. In most crop-growing regions, we find that yield losses caused by climate changes are substantially reduced under SRM as compared with a non-geoengineered doubling of atmospheric CO2. Substantial yield losses with SRM are only found for rice in high latitudes, where the limits of low temperatures are no longer alleviated. At the same time, the beneficial effect of CO2-fertilization on plant productivity remains active. Overall therefore, SRM in our models causes global crop yields to increase. We estimate the direct effects of climate and CO2 changes on crop production, and do not quantify effects of market dynamics and management changes. We note, however, that an SRM deployment would be unlikely to maintain the economic status quo, as market shares of agricultural output may change with the different spatial pattern of climate change. More importantly, geoengineering by SRM does not address a range of other detrimental consequences of climate change, such as ocean acidification, which could also affect food security via effects on marine food webs. Finally, SRM poses substantial anticipated and unanticipated risks by interfering with complex, not fully understood systems. Therefore, despite potential positive effects of SRM on crop yields, the most certain way to reduce climate risks to global food security is to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases.

Effects of work experience on fatigue-induced biomechanical changes during repetitive asymmetric lifts/lowers.

PubMed

Lee, Jungyong; Nussbaum, Maury A; Kyung, Gyouhyung

2014-01-01

Repetitive lifting/lowering is associated with an increased risk of work-related low back disorders (WRLBDs), and fatigue may exacerbate such risk. Work methods used by experienced workers are potential models for developing worker training to reduce WRLBDs, though whether experience modifies the effects of fatigue on WRLBD risk is largely unknown. Here, six novices and six experienced workers completed 185 cycles of repetitive, asymmetric lifts/lowers. Physical demands, whole-body balance and torso movement stability were assessed using torso kinematics/kinetics, linear/angular momenta and Lyapunov exponents, respectively. Several fatigue-induced changes in movement strategies were evident. Novices decreased and experienced workers increased peak lumbar moments post-fatigue, suggesting lower WRLBD risks among the former in terms of torso kinetics. Other than lumbar moments, though, fatigue substantially reduced group-level differences in torso twisting velocities and accelerations. Post-fatigue movement strategies of experienced workers thus did not appear to be advantageous in terms of WRLBD risk.

[Biological role of fetuin A and its potential importance for prediction of cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus].

PubMed

Horshuns'ka, M Iu; Karachentsev, Iu I; Kravchun, N O; Ĭensen, É; Leshchenko, Zh A; Hladkykh, O I; Krasova, N S; Tyzhnenko, T V; Opaleĭko, Iu A; Poltorak, V V

2013-01-01

The authors' data and those from literature concerning biological role of fetuin A glycoprotein have been generalized in the article. A direct correlation has been established between fetuin A and some adipokines involved in the formation of insulin resistance and atherogenesis (progranulin, omentin-1), and osteoprotegerin (the novel cardiovascular risk factor) as well as an increase of circulating levels of fetuin A in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus with high cardiovascular risk metabolic pattern but without manifestations of macrovascular complications. This substantiates the involvement of fetuin A in the complex of biomarkers of subclinical atherosclerosis.

Lifetime suicide attempts in juvenile assessment center youth.

PubMed

Nolen, Scott; McReynolds, Larkin S; DeComo, Robert E; John, Reni; Keating, Joseph M; Wasserman, Gail A

2008-01-01

To describe suicide risk in youth seen at a Juvenile Assessment Center (JAC), we examined relationships among self-reported lifetime attempts and demographic, justice, and psychiatric data via logistic regression. Similar to other settings, youth reporting lifetime attempts were more likely to be older, female, not living with both parents and currently arrested for a violent or felony crime. Mood, substance use, and behavior disorder each increased prediction substantially. Anxiety Disorder was associated with elevated attempt rates for boys only. JACs need to develop protocols for identifying suicide risk; further, since suicide history predicts future attempts, Anxiety Disordered boys may be at particular risk.

Family members of Hispanic military veterans: the risk of major depressive disorder.

PubMed

Podawiltz, Alan; Culpepper, Larry

2010-07-01

The number of Hispanics serving in the US military is expected to grow substantially. Frequent deployments and combat assignments put significant stress on military families, increasing the risk of major depression. The family members of Hispanic military personnel may manifest depression differently than other ethnicities. Hispanics are also less likely to seek help, more likely to seek care from primary care physicians, and less likely to be appropriately diagnosed and treated. Thus, clinicians should be aware of the risk and presentation of major depressive disorder in family members of Hispanic US military veterans. (c) Copyright 2010 Physicians Postgraduate Press, Inc.

Depressive Symptoms in Spouses of Older Patients with Severe Sepsis

PubMed Central

Davydow, Dimitry S; Hough, Catherine L; Langa, Kenneth M; Iwashyna, Theodore J

2013-01-01

Objective To examine whether spouses of patients with severe sepsis are at increased risk for depression independent of the spouse’s pre-sepsis history, whether this risk differs by sex, and is associated with a sepsis patient’s disability after hospitalization. Design Prospective longitudinal cohort study. Setting Population-based cohort of U.S. adults over 50 years old interviewed as part of the Health and Retirement Study (1993–2008). Patients 929 patient-spouse dyads comprising 1,212 hospitalizations for severe sepsis. Measurements and Main Results Severe sepsis was identified using a validated algorithm in Medicare claims. Depression was assessed with a modified version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. All analyses were stratified by gender. The prevalence of substantial depressive symptoms in wives of patients with severe sepsis increased by 14 percentage points at the time of severe sepsis (from 20% at a median of 1.1 years pre-sepsis to 34% at a median of 1 year post-sepsis), an odds ratio (OR) of 3.74 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 2.20, 6.37), in multivariable regression. Husbands had an 8 percentage point increase in the prevalence of substantial depressive symptoms, which was not significant in multivariable regression (OR 1.90, 95%CI: 0.75, 4.71). The increase in depression was not explained by bereavement; women had greater odds of substantial depressive symptoms even when their spouse survived a severe sepsis hospitalization (OR 2.86, 95%CI 1.06, 7.73). Wives of sepsis survivors who were disabled were more likely to be depressed (OR 1.35 per ADL limitation of sepsis survivor, 95%CI: 1.12, 1.64); however, controlling for patient disability only slightly attenuated the association between sepsis and wives’ depression (OR 2.61, 95%CI: 0.93, 7.38). Conclusions Older women may be at greater risk for depression if their spouse is hospitalized for severe sepsis. Spouses of patients with severe sepsis may benefit from greater supports and depression screening, both when their loved one dies, but also when their loved one survives. PMID:22635049

Testosterone and the Heart

PubMed Central

Goodale, Travis; Sadhu, Archana; Petak, Steven; Robbins, Richard

2017-01-01

Testosterone (T) has a number of important effects on the cardiovascular system. In men, T levels begin to decrease after age 40, and this decrease has been associated with an increase in all-cause mortality and cardiovascular (CV) risk. Low T levels in men may increase their risk of developing coronary artery disease (CAD), metabolic syndrome, and type 2 diabetes. Reduced T levels in men with congestive heart failure (CHF) portends a poor prognosis and is associated with increased mortality. Studies have reported a reduced CV risk with higher endogenous T concentration, improvement of known CV risk factors with T therapy, and reduced mortality in T-deficient men who underwent T replacement therapy versus untreated men. Testosterone replacement therapy (TRT) has been shown to improve myocardial ischemia in men with CAD, improve exercise capacity in patients with CHF, and improve serum glucose levels, HbA1c, and insulin resistance in men with diabetes and prediabetes. There are no large long-term, placebo-controlled, randomized clinical trials to provide definitive conclusions about TRT and CV risk. However, there currently is no credible evidence that T therapy increases CV risk and substantial evidence that it does not. In fact, existing data suggests that T therapy may offer CV benefits to men. PMID:28740585

Schizophrenia and Violence: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Fazel, Seena; Gulati, Gautam; Linsell, Louise; Geddes, John R.; Grann, Martin

2009-01-01

Background Although expert opinion has asserted that there is an increased risk of violence in individuals with schizophrenia and other psychoses, there is substantial heterogeneity between studies reporting risk of violence, and uncertainty over the causes of this heterogeneity. We undertook a systematic review of studies that report on associations between violence and schizophrenia and other psychoses. In addition, we conducted a systematic review of investigations that reported on risk of homicide in individuals with schizophrenia and other psychoses. Methods and Findings Bibliographic databases and reference lists were searched from 1970 to February 2009 for studies that reported on risks of interpersonal violence and/or violent criminality in individuals with schizophrenia and other psychoses compared with general population samples. These data were meta-analysed and odds ratios (ORs) were pooled using random-effects models. Ten demographic and clinical variables were extracted from each study to test for any observed heterogeneity in the risk estimates. We identified 20 individual studies reporting data from 18,423 individuals with schizophrenia and other psychoses. In men, ORs for the comparison of violence in those with schizophrenia and other psychoses with those without mental disorders varied from 1 to 7 with substantial heterogeneity (I 2 = 86%). In women, ORs ranged from 4 to 29 with substantial heterogeneity (I 2 = 85%). The effect of comorbid substance abuse was marked with the random-effects ORs of 2.1 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.7–2.7) without comorbidity, and an OR of 8.9 (95% CI 5.4–14.7) with comorbidity (p<0.001 on metaregression). Risk estimates of violence in individuals with substance abuse (but without psychosis) were similar to those in individuals with psychosis with substance abuse comorbidity, and higher than all studies with psychosis irrespective of comorbidity. Choice of outcome measure, whether the sample was diagnosed with schizophrenia or with nonschizophrenic psychoses, study location, or study period were not significantly associated with risk estimates on subgroup or metaregression analysis. Further research is necessary to establish whether longitudinal designs were associated with lower risk estimates. The risk for homicide was increased in individuals with psychosis (with and without comorbid substance abuse) compared with general population controls (random-effects OR = 19.5, 95% CI 14.7–25.8). Conclusions Schizophrenia and other psychoses are associated with violence and violent offending, particularly homicide. However, most of the excess risk appears to be mediated by substance abuse comorbidity. The risk in these patients with comorbidity is similar to that for substance abuse without psychosis. Public health strategies for violence reduction could consider focusing on the primary and secondary prevention of substance abuse. Please see later in the article for Editors' Summary PMID:19668362

Marijuana smoking and the risk of head and neck cancer: pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium.

PubMed

Berthiller, Julien; Lee, Yuan-Chin Amy; Boffetta, Paolo; Wei, Qingyi; Sturgis, Erich M; Greenland, Sander; Morgenstern, Hal; Zhang, Zuo-Feng; Lazarus, Philip; Muscat, Joshua; Chen, Chu; Schwartz, Stephen M; Eluf Neto, José; Wünsch Filho, Victor; Koifman, Sergio; Curado, Maria Paula; Matos, Elena; Fernandez, Leticia; Menezes, Ana; Daudt, Alexander W; Ferro, Gilles; Brennan, Paul; Hashibe, Mia

2009-05-01

Marijuana contains carcinogens similar to tobacco smoke and has been suggested by relatively small studies to increase the risk of head and neck cancer (HNC). Because tobacco is a major risk factor for HNC, large studies with substantial numbers of never tobacco users could help to clarify whether marijuana smoking is independently associated with HNC risk. We pooled self-reported interview data on marijuana smoking and known HNC risk factors on 4,029 HNC cases and 5,015 controls from five case-control studies within the INHANCE Consortium. Subanalyses were conducted among never tobacco users (493 cases and 1,813 controls) and among individuals who did not consume alcohol or smoke tobacco (237 cases and 887 controls). The risk of HNC was not elevated by ever marijuana smoking [odds ratio (OR), 0.88; 95% confidence intervals (95% CI), 0.67-1.16], and there was no increasing risk associated with increasing frequency, duration, or cumulative consumption of marijuana smoking. An increased risk of HNC associated with marijuana use was not detected among never tobacco users (OR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.63-1.37; three studies) nor among individuals who did not drink alcohol and smoke tobacco (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.47-2.38; two studies). Our results are consistent with the notion that infrequent marijuana smoking does not confer a risk of these malignancies. Nonetheless, because the prevalence of frequent marijuana smoking was low in most of the contributing studies, we could not rule out a moderately increased risk, particularly among subgroups without exposure to tobacco and alcohol.

Medical and Psychological Risks and Consequences of Long-Term Opioid Therapy in Women

PubMed Central

Darnall, Beth D.; Stacey, Brett R.; Chou, Roger

2016-01-01

Background Long-term opioid use has increased substantially over the past decade for U.S. women. Women are more likely than men to have a chronic pain condition, to be treated with opioids, and may receive higher doses. Prescribing trends persist despite limited evidence to support the long-term benefit of this pain treatment approach. Purpose To review the medical and psychological risks and consequences of long-term opioid therapy in women. Method Scientific literature containing relevant keywords and content were reviewed. Results and Conclusions Long-term opioid use exposes women to unique risks, including endocrinopathy, reduced fertility, neonatal risks, as well as greater risk for polypharmacy, cardiac risks, poisoning and unintentional overdose, among other risks. Risks for women appear to vary by age and psychosocial factors may be bidirectionally related to opioid use. Gaps in understanding and priorities for future research are highlighted. PMID:22905834

Presentation and Epidemiology of Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease.

PubMed

Richter, Joel E; Rubenstein, Joel H

2018-01-01

Gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD) is the most prevalent gastrointestinal disorder in the United States, and leads to substantial morbidity, though associated mortality is rare. The prevalence of GERD symptoms appeared to increase until 1999. Risk factors for complications of GERD include advanced age, male sex, white race, abdominal obesity, and tobacco use. Most patients with GERD present with heartburn and effortless regurgitation. Coexistent dysphagia is considered an alarm symptom, prompting evaluation. There is substantial overlap between symptoms of GERD and those of eosinophilic esophagitis, functional dyspepsia, and gastroparesis, posing a challenge for patient management. Copyright © 2018 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The potential premium range of risk-rating in competitive markets for supplementary health insurance.

PubMed

Paolucci, Francesco; Prinsze, Femmeke; Stam, Pieter J A; van de Ven, Wynand P M M

2009-09-01

In this paper, we simulate several scenarios of the potential premium range for voluntary (supplementary) health insurance, covering benefits which might be excluded from mandatory health insurance (MI). Our findings show that, by adding risk-factors, the minimum premium decreases and the maximum increases. The magnitude of the premium range is especially substantial for benefits such as medical devices and drugs. When removing benefits from MI policymakers should be aware of the implications for the potential reduction of affordability of voluntary health insurance coverage in a competitive market.

Breast cancer: integrating the patient with her genome.

PubMed

Angrist, Misha

2005-01-01

Increasingly, gene expression data are becoming the currency of the realm in assessing disease prognosis. This has been especially evident in cancer, particularly those malignancies for which tumor samples are fairly accessible and understanding prognostic factors has clear implications for treatment decisions. Recently, Pittman et al. demonstrated substantially increased accuracy of personalized disease outcome prediction in breast cancer by integrating gene-expression profile data with traditional clinical risk factors in a set of 158 breast cancer patients.

Glycerol particle cigarettes: a less harmful option for chronic smokers.

PubMed Central

Sutherland, G; Russell, M A; Stapleton, J A; Feyerabend, C

1993-01-01

In 20 smokers who switched to a new type of virtually tar free cigarette for three days, average nicotine intake was reduced by 44%, carbon monoxide intake increased by 19%, while estimated tar intake was reduced by about 90%. Such cigarettes pose substantially less risk of cancer and chronic obstructive lung disease than conventional cigarettes, and their acceptability and safety could be improved by increasing nicotine yield, reducing carbon monoxide yield, and improving the flavour. PMID:8511737

Epilepsy and Autism: Is there a special relationship?

PubMed Central

Berg, Anne T.; Plioplys, Sigita

2012-01-01

Increasingly, there has been an interest in the association between epilepsy and autism. The high frequency of autism in some of the early-onset developmental encephalopathic epilepsies is frequently cited as evidence of the relationship between autism and epilepsy. While these specific forms of epilepsy carry a higher than expected risk of autism, most if not all of the association may be due to intellectual disability (ID). The high prevalence of interictal EEG discharges in children with autism is also cited as further evidence although errors in the diagnosis of epilepsy seem to account for at least part of those findings. The prevalence of ID is substantially elevated in children with either epilepsy or autism. In the absence of ID, there is little evidence of a substantial, if any, increased risk of autism in children with epilepsy. Further, although the reported prevalence of autism has increased over the last several years, much of this increase may be attributable to changes in diagnostic practices, conceptualization of autism in the presence of ID, and laws requiring provision of services for children with autism. In the context of these temporal trends, any further efforts to tease apart the relationships between epilepsy, ID, and autism will have to address head-on the accuracy of diagnosis of all three conditions before we can determine whether there is indeed a special relationship between autism and epilepsy. PMID:22381386

Will HIV Vaccination Reshape HIV Risk Behavior Networks? A Social Network Analysis of Drug Users' Anticipated Risk Compensation

PubMed Central

Young, April M.; Halgin, Daniel S.; DiClemente, Ralph J.; Sterk, Claire E.; Havens, Jennifer R.

2014-01-01

Background An HIV vaccine could substantially impact the epidemic. However, risk compensation (RC), or post-vaccination increase in risk behavior, could present a major challenge. The methodology used in previous studies of risk compensation has been almost exclusively individual-level in focus, and has not explored how increased risk behavior could affect the connectivity of risk networks. This study examined the impact of anticipated HIV vaccine-related RC on the structure of high-risk drug users' sexual and injection risk network. Methods A sample of 433 rural drug users in the US provided data on their risk relationships (i.e., those involving recent unprotected sex and/or injection equipment sharing). Dyad-specific data were collected on likelihood of increasing/initiating risk behavior if they, their partner, or they and their partner received an HIV vaccine. Using these data and social network analysis, a "post-vaccination network" was constructed and compared to the current network on measures relevant to HIV transmission, including network size, cohesiveness (e.g., diameter, component structure, density), and centrality. Results Participants reported 488 risk relationships. Few reported an intention to decrease condom use or increase equipment sharing (4% and 1%, respectively). RC intent was reported in 30 existing risk relationships and vaccination was anticipated to elicit the formation of five new relationships. RC resulted in a 5% increase in risk network size (n = 142 to n = 149) and a significant increase in network density. The initiation of risk relationships resulted in the connection of otherwise disconnected network components, with the largest doubling in size from five to ten. Conclusions This study demonstrates a new methodological approach to studying RC and reveals that behavior change following HIV vaccination could potentially impact risk network connectivity. These data will be valuable in parameterizing future network models that can determine if network-level change precipitated by RC would appreciably impact the vaccine's population-level effectiveness. PMID:24992659

Supplementary health insurance as a tool for risk-selection in mandatory basic health insurance markets.

PubMed

Paolucci, Francesco; Schut, Erik; Beck, Konstantin; Gress, Stefan; Van de Voorde, Carine; Zmora, Irit

2007-04-01

As the share of supplementary health insurance (SI) in health care finance is likely to grow, SI may become an increasingly attractive tool for risk-selection in basic health insurance (BI). In this paper, we develop a conceptual framework to assess the probability that insurers will use SI for favourable risk-selection in BI. We apply our framework to five countries in which risk-selection via SI is feasible: Belgium, Germany, Israel, the Netherlands, and Switzerland. For each country, we review the available evidence of SI being used as selection device. We find that the probability that SI is and will be used for risk-selection substantially varies across countries. Finally, we discuss several strategies for policy makers to reduce the chance that SI will be used for risk-selection in BI markets.

Time Course of Risk Factors in Cancer Etiology and Progression

PubMed Central

Wei, Esther K.; Wolin, Kathleen Y.; Colditz, Graham A.

2010-01-01

Patients with cancer increasingly ask what they can do to change their lifestyles and improve outcomes. Risk factors for onset of cancer may differ substantially from those that modify survival with implications for counseling. This review focuses on recent data derived from population-based studies of causes of cancer and of patients with cancer to contrast risk factors for etiology with those that impact survival. For different cancer sites, the level of information to inform the timing of lifestyle exposures and risk of disease onset or progression after diagnosis is often limited. For breast cancer, timing of some exposures, such as radiation, is particularly important. For other exposures, such as physical activity, higher levels may prevent onset and also improve survival. For colon cancer, study of precursor polyps has provided additional insight to timing. Extensive data indicate that physical activity reduces risk of colon cancer, and more limited data suggest that exposure after diagnosis improves survival. Dietary factors including folate and calcium may also reduce risk of onset. More limited data on prostate cancer point to obesity increasing risk of aggressive or advanced disease. Timing of change in lifestyle for change in risk of onset and for survival is important but understudied among patients with cancer. Counseling patients with cancer to increase physical activity and avoid weight gain may improve outcomes. Advice to family members on lifestyle may become increasingly important for breast and other cancers where family history is a strong risk factor. PMID:20644083

Is polycystic ovary syndrome, a state of relative estrogen excess, a real risk factor for estrogen-dependant malignancies?

PubMed

Fanta, Michael

2013-02-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a common endocrinopathy affecting women of fertile age. It is associated with several risk factors and long-term health consequences. Chronic anovulation combined with relative estrogen excess and consequent prolonged stimulatory effect on the endometrium can lead to the pathogenesis of hormonal dependant carcinoma. PCOS is thus traditionally reported to be associated with increased risk of endometrial, as well as breast and ovarian cancers. This article provides a critical literature review of the relationship between PCOS and the incidence of estrogen-dependant gynecological tumours, and it then discusses whether the commonly cited risk factor association can be substantiated by high quality studies which comply with the requirements of "evidence-based medicine."

Self-perceived health versus actual cardiovascular disease risks.

PubMed

Ko, Young; Boo, Sunjoo

2016-01-01

Self-perceived poor health is related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk perception, cardiovascular event, hospital readmission, and death from CVD. This study evaluated the associations between self-perceived health and actual CVD risk in South Koreans as well as the influence of sociodemographic and cardiovascular risk factors on self-perceived poor health. This is a secondary data analysis of the 2010 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. The sample was 4535 South Koreans aged 30-74 years without CVD. Self-perceived health status was compared with actual cardiovascular risk separately by sex using χ(2) -tests. Logistic regressions were used to identify potential sociodemographic and cardiovascular risk factors of self-perceived poor health. Self-perceived poor health was related to higher CVD risk but there were substantial gaps between them. Among cardiovascular risk factors, dyslipidemia, obesity, smoking, and a family history of CVD did not affect self-perceived health. Gaps between perceived health and actual CVD risk should be closed to optimize cardiovascular health of South Koreans. Koreans need to increase risk perception to a level commensurate with their actual risk. Healthcare providers should try to provide individuals at increased CVD risk with better information more frequently, especially those who have favorable perceptions of their health but smoke or have elevated cholesterol levels and bodyweight. © 2015 Japan Academy of Nursing Science.

Biopsy confirmed benign breast disease, postmenopausal use of exogenous female hormones, and breast carcinoma risk.

PubMed

Byrne, C; Connolly, J L; Colditz, G A; Schnitt, S J

2000-11-15

A history of proliferative benign breast disease has been shown to increase the risk of developing breast carcinoma, but, to the authors' knowledge, how postmenopausal exogenous female hormone use, in general, has affected breast carcinoma risk among women with a history of proliferative breast disease with or without atypia has not been well established. In the current case-control study, nested within the Nurses' Health Study, benign breast biopsy slides of 133 postmenopausal breast carcinoma cases and 610 controls with a history of benign breast disease, were reviewed. Reviewers had no knowledge of case status. Women with proliferative disease without atypia had a relative risk for postmenopausal breast carcinoma of 1.8 (95%, confidence interval [CI]: 1.1 to 2.8), and women with atypical hyperplasia had a relative risk of 3.6 (95%, CI: 2.0 to 6.4) compared with women who had nonproliferative benign histology. Neither current postmenopausal use of exogenous female hormones nor long term use for 5 or more years further increased the risk of breast carcinoma in the study population beyond that already associated with their benign histology. Women who had proliferative benign breast disease, with or without atypia, were at moderately to substantially increased risk of developing postmenopausal breast carcinoma compared with women who had nonproliferative benign conditions. In the current study, postmenopausal exogenous female hormone use in general did not further increase the breast carcinoma risk for women with proliferative benign breast disease. However, the analysis did not exclude the possibility of increased risk with a particular hormone combination or dosage. Copyright 2000 American Cancer Society.

Catastrophic thinking and increased risk for prescription opioid misuse in patients with chronic pain

PubMed Central

Martel, MO; Wasan, AD; Jamison, RN; Edwards, RR

2013-01-01

Background As a consequence of the substantial rise in the prescription of opioids for the treatment of chronic noncancer pain, greater attention has been paid to the factors that may be associated with an increased risk for prescription opioid misuse. Recently, a growing number of studies have shown that patients with high levels of catastrophizing are at increased risk for prescription opioid misuse. Objective The primary objective of this study was to examine the variables that might underlie the association between catastrophizing and risk for prescription opioid misuse in patients with chronic pain. Methods Patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain (n = 115) were asked to complete the SOAPP-R, a validated self-report questionnaire designed to identify patients at risk for prescription opioid misuse. Patients were also asked to complete self-report measures of pain intensity, catastrophizing, anxiety, and depression. Results Consistent with previous research, we found that catastrophizing was associated with an increased risk for prescription opioid misuse. Results also revealed that the association between catastrophizing and risk for opioid misuse was partially mediated by patients’ levels of anxiety. Follow-up analyses, however, indicated that catastrophizing remained a significant ‘unique’ predictor of risk for opioid misuse even when controlling for patients’ levels of pain severity, anxiety and depressive symptoms. Discussion Discussion addresses the factors that might place patients with high levels of catastrophizing at increased risk for prescription opioid misuse. The implications of our findings for the management of patients considered for opioid therapy are also discussed. PMID:23618767

Mistreatment in Assisted Living Facilities: Complaints, Substantiations, and Risk Factors

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Phillips, Linda R.; Guo, Guifang

2011-01-01

Purpose of the Study: Use archived public data from Arizona to explore relationships among selected institutional and resident risk and situation-specific factors and complaints and substantiated allegations of various types of mistreatment in assisted living facilities (ALFs). Design and Methods: An exploratory/descriptive 2-group design was…

Should multifetal pregnancy reduction be used for prevention of preterm deliveries in triplet or higher order multiple pregnancies?

PubMed

Papiernik, E; Grangé, G; Zeitlin, J

1998-01-01

This article reviews the arguments for the use of multifetal pregnancy reduction (MFPR) for the prevention of preterm deliveries in triplet and higher order multiple pregnancies and evaluates its effectiveness based on data from published studies. The arguments in favour of pregnancy reduction are based on the substantial mortality and morbidity associated with these pregnancies. Triplets and higher order multiples have increased rates of preterm delivery and intrauterine growth retardation, both of which are independent risk factors for death and handicap. Even controlling for gestational age, rates of mortality and handicap are higher for multiples than for singletons. Moreover, the family's risk of losing a child or having a handicapped child is greater because there are more infants at risk. MFPR effectively lowers these risk by reducing the frequency of preterm delivery. However, its effectiveness may be limited. In some studies, the proportion of preterm deliveries in reduced pregnancies remains above levels found in spontaneous twin or singleton pregnancies and MFPR does not appear to reduce the prevalence of low birth weight. Furthermore, the procedure itself has unwanted side effects: it increases the risk of miscarriage, premature rupture of the membranes and causes adverse psychological effects such as grief or depression for many patients. The authors note that a majority of the higher order multiple pregnancies result from a medical intervention in the first place, either through IVF techniques or the use of ovulation stimulation drugs. Although MFPR is an effective measure for reducing the substantial morbidity and mortality associated with higher order multiple pregnancies, preventive methods, such as limiting to 2 the number of embryos transferred for IVF and better control of the use of ovulation induction drugs, remain more effective and less intrusive.

Risk assessment of the introduction of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus via boar semen into Switzerland as an example of a PRRSV-free country.

PubMed

Nathues, C; Zimmerli, U; Hauser, R; Nathues, H; Grosse Beilage, E; Schüpbach-Regula, G

2014-12-01

Switzerland is currently porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) free, but semen imports from PRRSV-infected European countries are increasing. As the virus can be transmitted via semen, for example, when a free boar stud becomes infected, and the risk of its import in terms of PRRSV introduction is unknown, the annual probability to accidentally import the virus into Switzerland was estimated in a risk assessment. A quantitative stochastic model was set up with data comprised by import figures of 2010, interviews with boar stud owners and expert opinion. It resulted in an annual median number of 0.18 imported ejaculates (= imported semen doses from one collection from one donor) from PRRSV-infected boars. Hence, one infected ejaculate would be imported every 6 years and infect a mean of 10 sows. These results suggest that under current circumstances, there is a substantial risk of PRRSV introduction into Switzerland via imported boar semen and that measures to enhance safety of imports should be taken. The time from infection of a previously negative boar stud to its detection had the highest impact on the number of imported 'positive' ejaculates. Therefore, emphasis should be placed on PRRSV monitoring protocols in boar studs. Results indicated that a substantial increase in safety could only be achieved with much tighter sampling protocols than currently performed. Generally, the model could easily be customized for other applications like other countries or regions or even sow farms that want to estimate their risk when purchasing semen from a particular boar stud. © 2013 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Overdiagnosis and overtreatment of breast cancer.

PubMed

Alvarado, Michael; Ozanne, Elissa; Esserman, Laura

2012-01-01

Breast cancer is the most common cancer in women. Through greater awareness, mammographic screening, and aggressive biopsy of calcifications, the proportion of low-grade, early stage cancers and in situ lesions among all breast cancers has risen substantially. The introduction of molecular testing has increased the recognition of lower risk subtypes, and less aggressive treatments are more commonly recommended for these subtypes. Mammographically detected breast cancers are much more likely to have low-risk biology than symptomatic tumors found between screenings (interval cancers) or that present as clinical masses. Recognizing the lower risk associated with these lesions and the ability to confirm the risk with molecular tests should safely enable the use of less aggressive treatments. Importantly, ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) lesions, or what have been called stage I cancers, in and of themselves are not life-threatening. In situ lesions have been treated in a manner similar to that of invasive cancer, but there is little evidence to support that this practice has improved mortality. It is also being recognized that DCIS lesions are heterogeneous, and a substantial proportion of them may in fact be precursors of more indolent invasive cancers. Increasing evidence suggests that these lesions are being overtreated. The introduction of molecular tests should be able to help usher in a change in approach to these lesions. Reclassifying these lesions as part of the spectrum of high-risk lesions enables the use of a prevention approach. Learning from the experience with active surveillance in prostate cancer should empower the introduction of new approaches, with a focus on preventing invasive cancer, especially given that there are effective, United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved breast cancer preventive interventions.

The prevalence of cardiovascular disease risk factors and the Framingham Risk Score in patients undergoing percutaneous intervention over the last 17 years by gender: time-trend analysis from the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry.

PubMed

Lee, Moo-Sik; Flammer, Andreas J; Kim, Hyun-Soo; Hong, Jee-Young; Li, Jing; Lennon, Ryan J; Lerman, Amir

2014-07-01

This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients at the Mayo Clinic. We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender distribution did not change. A significant trend towards higher body mass index and more prevalent hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes was found over time. The prevalence of current smokers remained unchanged. The prevalence of ever-smokers decreased among males, but increased among females. However, overall CVD risk according to the Framingham risk score (FRS) and 10-year CVD risk significantly decreased. The use of most of medications elevated from 1994 to 2010, except for β-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors decreased after 2007 and 2006 in both baseline and discharge, respectively. Most of the major risk factors improved and the FRS and 10-year CVD risk declined in this population of PCI patients. However, obesity, history of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, and medication use increased substantially. Improvements to blood pressure and lipid profile management because of medication use may have influenced the positive trends. This study aims to investigate trends of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor profiles over 17 years in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients at the Mayo Clinic. We performed a time-trend analysis within the Mayo Clinic PCI Registry from 1994 to 2010. Results were the incidence and prevalence of CVD risk factors as estimate by the Framingham risk score. Between 1994 and 2010, 25 519 patients underwent a PCI. During the time assessed, the mean age at PCI became older, but the gender distribution did not change. A significant trend towards higher body mass index and more prevalent hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, and diabetes was found over time. The prevalence of current smokers remained unchanged. The prevalence of ever-smokers decreased among males, but increased among females. However, overall CVD risk according to the Framingham risk score (FRS) and 10-year CVD risk significantly decreased. The use of most of medications elevated from 1994 to 2010, except for β-blockers and angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors decreased after 2007 and 2006 in both baseline and discharge, respectively. Most of the major risk factors improved and the FRS and 10-year CVD risk declined in this population of PCI patients. However, obesity, history of hypercholesterolemia, hypertension, diabetes, and medication use increased substantially. Improvements to blood pressure and lipid profile management because of medication use may have influenced the positive trends.

Radiological health risks to astronauts from space activities and medical procedures

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Peterson, Leif E.; Nachtwey, D. Stuart

1990-01-01

Radiation protection standards for space activities differ substantially from those applied to terrestrial working situations. The levels of radiation and subsequent hazards to which space workers are exposed are quite unlike anything found on Earth. The new more highly refined system of risk management involves assessing the risk to each space worker from all sources of radiation (occupational and non-occupational) at the organ level. The risk coefficients were applied to previous space and medical exposures (diagnostic x ray and nuclear medicine procedures) in order to estimate the radiation-induced lifetime cancer incidence and mortality risk. At present, the risk from medical procedures when compared to space activities is 14 times higher for cancer incidence and 13 times higher for cancer mortality; however, this will change as the per capita dose during Space Station Freedom and interplanetary missions increases and more is known about the risks from exposure to high-LET radiation.

Common genetic risk factors for coronary artery disease: new opportunities for prevention?

PubMed

Hamrefors, Viktor

2017-05-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide, with coronary artery disease (CAD) being the single leading cause of death. Better control of risk factors, enhanced diagnostic techniques and improved medical therapies have all substantially decreased the mortality of CAD in developed countries. However, CAD and other forms of atherosclerotic CVD are projected to remain the leading cause of death by 2030 and we face a number of challenges if the outcomes of CAD are to be further improved. The fact that a substantial fraction of high-risk subjects do not reach treatment goals for important risk factors is one of these challenges. At the same time, there is also a non-negotiable fraction of 'concealed' high-risk subjects who are not detected by current risk algorithms and diagnostic modalities. In recent years, we have started to rapidly increase our knowledge of the framework of common genetics underlying CAD and atherosclerotic CVD in the population. In conjunction with modern diagnostic and therapeutic options, this new genetic knowledge may provide a valuable tool for further improvements in prevention. This review summarizes the recent findings from the search for common genetic risk factors for CAD. Furthermore, the author discusses how such recent findings could potentially be used in a number of clinical applications within CAD prevention, including in clinical risk stratification, in prediction of drug treatment response and in the search for targets for novel preventive therapies. © 2015 Scandinavian Society of Clinical Physiology and Nuclear Medicine. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Validity of the Framingham point scores in the elderly: results from the Rotterdam study.

PubMed

Koller, Michael T; Steyerberg, Ewout W; Wolbers, Marcel; Stijnen, Theo; Bucher, Heiner C; Hunink, M G Myriam; Witteman, Jacqueline C M

2007-07-01

The National Cholesterol Education Program recommends assessing 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in individuals free of established CHD with the Framingham Point Scores (FPS). Individuals with a risk >20% are classified as high risk and are candidates for preventive intervention. We aimed to validate the FPS in a European population of elderly subjects. Subjects free of established CHD at baseline were selected from the Rotterdam study, a population-based cohort of subjects 55 years or older in The Netherlands. We studied calibration, discrimination (c-index), and the accuracy of high-risk classifications. Events consisted of fatal CHD and nonfatal myocardial infarction. Among 6795 subjects, 463 died because of CHD and 336 had nonfatal myocardial infarction. Predicted 10-year risk of CHD was on average well calibrated for women (9.9% observed vs 10.1% predicted) but showed substantial overestimation in men (14.3% observed vs 19.8% predicted), particularly with increasing age. This resulted in substantial number of false-positive classifications (specificity 70%) in men. In women, discrimination of the FPS was better than that in men (c-index 0.73 vs 0.63, respectively). However, because of the low baseline risk of CHD and limited discriminatory power, only 33% of all CHD events occurred in women classified as high risk. The FPS need recalibration for elderly men with better incorporation of the effect of age. In elderly women, FPS perform reasonably well. However, maintaining the rational of the high-risk threshold requires better performing models for a population with low incidence of CHD.

Dietary Inflammatory Index and Cardiovascular Risk and Mortality-A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Godos, Justyna; Hébert, James R; Wirth, Michael D; Piuri, Gabriele; Speciani, Attilio F; Grosso, Giuseppe

2018-02-12

Diet and chronic inflammation have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and related mortality. The possible link between the inflammatory potential of diet measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII ® ) and CVD has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from 14 studies were eligible, of which two were case-control, eleven were cohort, and one was cross-sectional. Results from the random-effects meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and CVD. Individuals in the highest versus the lowest (reference) DII category showed a 36% increased risk of CVD incidence and mortality, with moderate evidence of heterogeneity (relative risk (RR) = 1.36, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19, 1.57; heterogeneity index I ² = 69%, p < 0.001). When analyzed as a continuous variable, results showed an increased risk of CVD risk and mortality of 8% for each one-point increase in the DII score. Results remained unchanged when analyses were restricted to the prospective studies. Results of our meta-analysis support the importance of adopting a healthier anti-inflammatory diet for preventing CVD incidence and related mortality. In conclusion, a pro-inflammatory diet is associated with increased risk of CVD and CVD mortality. These results further substantiate the utility of DII as tool to characterize the inflammatory potential of diet and to predict CVD incidence and mortality.

Land Use Planning and Wildfire: Development Policies Influence Future Probability of Housing Loss

PubMed Central

Syphard, Alexandra D.; Bar Massada, Avi; Butsic, Van; Keeley, Jon E.

2013-01-01

Increasing numbers of homes are being destroyed by wildfire in the wildland-urban interface. With projections of climate change and housing growth potentially exacerbating the threat of wildfire to homes and property, effective fire-risk reduction alternatives are needed as part of a comprehensive fire management plan. Land use planning represents a shift in traditional thinking from trying to eliminate wildfires, or even increasing resilience to them, toward avoiding exposure to them through the informed placement of new residential structures. For land use planning to be effective, it needs to be based on solid understanding of where and how to locate and arrange new homes. We simulated three scenarios of future residential development and projected landscape-level wildfire risk to residential structures in a rapidly urbanizing, fire-prone region in southern California. We based all future development on an econometric subdivision model, but we varied the emphasis of subdivision decision-making based on three broad and common growth types: infill, expansion, and leapfrog. Simulation results showed that decision-making based on these growth types, when applied locally for subdivision of individual parcels, produced substantial landscape-level differences in pattern, location, and extent of development. These differences in development, in turn, affected the area and proportion of structures at risk from burning in wildfires. Scenarios with lower housing density and larger numbers of small, isolated clusters of development, i.e., resulting from leapfrog development, were generally predicted to have the highest predicted fire risk to the largest proportion of structures in the study area, and infill development was predicted to have the lowest risk. These results suggest that land use planning should be considered an important component to fire risk management and that consistently applied policies based on residential pattern may provide substantial benefits for future risk reduction. PMID:23977120

Prevalence and risk factors for proteinuria: the National Kidney Foundation of Malaysia Lifecheck Health Screening programme.

PubMed

Ong, Loke Meng; Punithavathi, Narayanan; Thurairatnam, Dharminy; Zainal, Hadzlinda; Beh, Mei Li; Morad, Zaki; Lee, Sharleen Ys; Bavanandan, Sunita; Kok, Lai Sun

2013-08-01

Treatment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) poses a huge burden to the healthcare system. To address the problem, the National Kidney Foundation of Malaysia embarked on a programme to screen for proteinuria and educate the public on CKD. The public was invited for health screening and the data collected over a 21 month period was analyzed. In total, 40400 adults from all the states in Malaysia were screened. The screening population had a mean age of 41 years, 30.1% had hypertension and 10.6% had diabetes. Proteinuria was detected in 1.4% and haematuria in 8.9% of the participants. Factors associated with the highest risk for proteinuria were the presence of diabetes (adjusted odds ratio (OR) 2.63 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.16-3.21)), hypertension (OR 2.49 (95% CI 2.03-3.07)) and cardiac disease (OR 2.05 (95% CI 1.50-2.81)). Other risk factors identified were lower educational level, family history of kidney disease, hypercholesterolaemia, obesity and lack of regular exercise. Chinese had the lowest risk for proteinuria among the races (OR 0.71 (95% CI 0.57-0.87) compared with Malays). The combination of high blood glucose and high blood pressure (BP) substantially increased the risk for proteinuria (OR 38.1 for glucose ≥ 10 mmol/L and systolic BP ≥ 180 mm Hg and OR 47.9 for glucose ≥ 10 mmol/L and diastolic BP ≥ 110 mm Hg). The prevalence of proteinuria in Malaysia is similar to other countries. The major risk factors for proteinuria were diabetes, hypertension and cardiac disease. The presence of both high blood pressure and high blood glucose exert a synergistic effect in substantially increasing the risk for proteinuria. © 2013 The Authors. Nephrology © 2013 Asian Pacific Society of Nephrology.

Visibility, Immobility and Stigma: Young People's Use of Sexual Health Services in Rural Areas

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Craig, Gary; Stanley, Nicky

2006-01-01

Teenage pregnancy has become a major policy issue, for which young people are often publicly held solely responsible. However, a combination of factors substantially increases the risks of conception faced by young people engaging in early sexual activity. This article reports the main findings of a study of teenage pregnancy in linked seaside and…

Investigating Concurrency in Weapons Programs

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-10-01

manipulation. Defense AT&L: September-October 2010 20 acquisition’s Feb. 6, 2006, memorandum, “Design/Build Con - currency,” identified the high degree...We have consistently reported on the elevated risk of poor program outcomes from the substantial overlap of development, test, and production...rency a program can experience before significant cost increase is incurred rages on. Advantages and Disadvantages Intuitively, one can see the

Predictive Models of Acute Mountain Sickness after Rapid Ascent to Various Altitudes

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-01-01

unclassified relational mountain medicine database containing individ- ual ascent profiles, demographic and physiologic subject descriptors, and...course of AMS, and define the baseline demographics and physiologic descriptors that increase the risk of AMS. In addition, these models provide...substantiated this finding in un- acclimatized women (24). Other physiologic differences between men and women (i.e., differences in endothelial

Epidemiological modeling of invasion in heterogeneous landscapes: Spread of sudden oak death in California (1990-2030)

Treesearch

R.K. Meentemeyer; N.J. Cunniffe; A.R. Cook; J.A.N. Filipe; R.D. Hunter; D.M. Rizzo; C.A. Gilligan

2011-01-01

The spread of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) in natural environments poses substantial risks to biodiversity and ecosystem function. As EIDs and their impacts grow, landscape- to regional-scale models of disease dynamics are increasingly needed for quantitative prediction of epidemic outcomes and design of practicable strategies for control. Here we use spatio-...

Community College Students' Awareness of Risk Factors for Mental Health Problems and Referrals to Facilitative and Debilitative Resources

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Kalkbrenner, Mike; Hernández, Thomas J.

2017-01-01

The prevalence of school shootings and other campus violence incidents have called attention to the increasing number of college students who are living with Mental Health Disorders (MHDs). There is a substantial amount of literature on MHDs among college students who are attending 4-year universities. However, the literature is lacking research…

Young Adults and Higher Education: Barriers and Breakthroughs to Success. National Poverty Center Working Paper Series #10-08

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Brock, Thomas

2010-01-01

Although "access" to higher education has increased substantially over the past forty years, student "success" in college--as measured by persistence and degree attainment--has not improved at all. Thomas Brock reviews systematic research findings on the effectiveness of various interventions designed to help at-risk students remain in college.…

Threshold responses to soil moisture deficit by trees and soil in tropical rain forests: insights from field experiments

Treesearch

Patrick Meir; Tana Wood; David R. Galbraith; Paulo M. Brando; Antonio C.I. Da Costa; Lucy Rowland; Leandro V. Ferreira

2015-01-01

Many tropical rain forest regions are at risk of increased future drought. The net effects of drought on forest ecosystem functioning will be substantial if important ecological thresholds are passed. However, understanding and predicting these effects is challenging using observational studies alone. Field-based rainfall exclusion (canopy throughfall exclusion; TFE)...

Long-term mortality in HIV-positive individuals virally suppressed for >3 years with incomplete CD4 recovery.

PubMed

Engsig, Frederik N; Zangerle, Robert; Katsarou, Olga; Dabis, Francois; Reiss, Peter; Gill, John; Porter, Kholoud; Sabin, Caroline; Riordan, Andrew; Fätkenheuer, Gerd; Gutiérrez, Félix; Raffi, Francois; Kirk, Ole; Mary-Krause, Murielle; Stephan, Christoph; de Olalla, Patricia Garcia; Guest, Jodie; Samji, Hasina; Castagna, Antonella; d'Arminio Monforte, Antonella; Skaletz-Rorowski, Adriane; Ramos, Jose; Lapadula, Giuseppe; Mussini, Cristina; Force, Lluís; Meyer, Laurence; Lampe, Fiona; Boufassa, Faroudy; Bucher, Heiner C; De Wit, Stéphane; Burkholder, Greer A; Teira, Ramon; Justice, Amy C; Sterling, Tim R; M Crane, Heidi; Gerstoft, Jan; Grarup, Jesper; May, Margaret; Chêne, Geneviève; Ingle, Suzanne M; Sterne, Jonathan; Obel, Niels

2014-05-01

Some human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) with low CD4 counts achieve viral suppression but not CD4 cell recovery. We aimed to identify (1) risk factors for failure to achieve CD4 count >200 cells/µL after 3 years of sustained viral suppression and (2) the association of the achieved CD4 count with subsequent mortality. We included treated HIV-infected adults from 2 large international HIV cohorts, who had viral suppression (≤500 HIV type 1 RNA copies/mL) for >3 years with CD4 count ≤200 cells/µL at start of the suppressed period. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for incomplete CD4 recovery (≤200 cells/µL) and Cox regression to identify associations with mortality. Of 5550 eligible individuals, 835 (15%) did not reach a CD4 count >200 cells/µL after 3 years of suppression. Increasing age, lower initial CD4 count, male heterosexual and injection drug use transmission, cART initiation after 1998, and longer time from initiation of cART to start of the virally suppressed period were risk factors for not achieving a CD4 count >200 cells/µL. Individuals with CD4 ≤200 cells/µL after 3 years of viral suppression had substantially increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-3.61) compared with those who achieved CD4 count >200 cells/µL. The increased mortality was seen across different patient groups and for all causes of death. Virally suppressed HIV-positive individuals on cART who do not achieve a CD4 count >200 cells/µL have substantially increased long-term mortality.

Hyaluronic Acid Levels Predict Risk of Hepatic Encephalopathy and Liver-Related Death in HIV/Viral Hepatitis Coinfected Patients

PubMed Central

Peters, Lars; Mocroft, Amanda; Soriano, Vincent; Rockstroh, Jürgen; Rauch, Andri; Karlsson, Anders; Knysz, Brygida; Pradier, Christian; Zilmer, Kai; Lundgren, Jens D.

2013-01-01

Background Whereas it is well established that various soluble biomarkers can predict level of liver fibrosis, their ability to predict liver-related clinical outcomes is less clearly established, in particular among HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected persons. We investigated plasma hyaluronic acid’s (HA) ability to predict risk of liver-related events (LRE; hepatic coma or liver-related death) in the EuroSIDA study. Methods Patients included were positive for anti-HCV and/or HBsAg with at least one available plasma sample. The earliest collected plasma sample was tested for HA (normal range 0–75 ng/mL) and levels were associated with risk of LRE. Change in HA per year of follow-up was estimated after measuring HA levels in latest sample before the LRE for those experiencing this outcome (cases) and in a random selection of one sixth of the remaining patients (controls). Results During a median of 8.2 years of follow-up, 84/1252 (6.7%) patients developed a LRE. Baseline median (IQR) HA in those without and with a LRE was 31.8 (17.2–62.6) and 221.6 ng/mL (74.9–611.3), respectively (p<0.0001). After adjustment, HA levels predicted risk of contracting a LRE; incidence rate ratios for HA levels 75–250 or ≥250 vs. <75 ng/mL were 5.22 (95% CI 2.86–9.26, p<0.0007) and 28.22 (95% CI 14.95–46.00, p<0.0001), respectively. Median HA levels increased substantially prior to developing a LRE (107.6 ng/mL, IQR 0.8 to 251.1), but remained stable for controls (1.0 ng/mL, IQR –5.1 to 8.2), (p<0.0001 comparing cases and controls), and greater increases predicted risk of a LRE in adjusted models (p<0.001). Conclusions An elevated level of plasma HA, particularly if the level further increases over time, substantially increases the risk of contracting LRE over the next five years. HA is an inexpensive, standardized and non-invasive supplement to other methods aimed at identifying HIV/viral hepatitis co-infected patients at risk of hepatic complications. PMID:23724041

Risk factors for child maltreatment recurrence: An updated systematic review.

PubMed

White, Oliver G; Hindley, Nick; Jones, David P H

2015-10-01

Children who have been maltreated are at increased risk of further maltreatment. Identification of those at highest risk of further maltreatment is a priority for professionals working in child protection services. The current study is intended to consolidate and expand on previous work on recurrence of child maltreatment. It has sought to identify risk factors for maltreatment recurrence in the recent literature in the expectation that this may help in the practical identification of children at risk. We conducted a systematic review of cohort studies published between 2003 and 2009, identifying factors associated with maltreatment recurrence in children. Studies included demonstrated differing levels of substantiation of maltreatment. Fifteen studies met inclusion criteria but showed significant heterogeneity, varying in setting, recruitment of subjects, types of maltreatment considered and length of follow-up. Previous findings were replicated and expanded in the current study in relation to a range of factors, including rates of maltreatment recurrence, maltreatment types, frequency of previous episodes of maltreatment, child and family considerations, home environment and service provision. Factors were identified irrespective of level of maltreatment substantiation. This study provides further systematic evidence of the existence of a number of factors associated with child maltreatment recurrence. It points to the possibility of practical application of its findings within the wider context of decision making in child protection services, with the ultimate aim of reducing recurrence of maltreatment in individual cases. © The Author(s) 2014.

Prospective study of exogenous hormone use and breast cancer in Seventh-day Adventists.

PubMed

Mills, P K; Beeson, W L; Phillips, R L; Fraser, G E

1989-08-01

Exogenous hormone use as either oral contraceptives (OC) or hormone replacement therapy (HRT) was evaluated in reference to subsequent breast cancer risk in a cohort study of 20,341 Seventh-day Adventist women, residing in California, who completed a detailed lifestyle questionnaire in 1976 and who were followed for 6 years. During the follow-up period, 215 histologically confirmed primary breast cancers were detected in the cohort. The mean age at diagnosis was 66 years, indicating a primarily postmenopausal case series. In this cohort, after taking into account potentially confounding variables, current use of HRT (in 1976) was associated with a 69% increase in breast cancer risk, which was statistically significant (RR = 1.69; CI = 1.12-2.55). However, there was no strong increase in risk with increasing duration of use of HRT. Subgroups of women who did experience HRT associated increases in breast cancer risk included those women who had ever used HRT (RR = 1.39; CI = 1.00-1.94) and those with no history of maternal breast cancer (RR = 1.45), those women with prior benign breast disease (RR = 2.80), and those women who experienced menopause at 44 years of age or later (RR = 1.56). There was no substantial increase in breast cancer risk associated with use of OC in this population, although among women with exposure to both OC and HRT there was a suggested increase in risk (RR = 1.42; CI = 0.71-2.85).

The Development of Comorbid Conduct Problems in Children With ADHD: An Example of an Integrative Developmental Psychopathology Perspective.

PubMed

Danforth, Jeffrey S; Connor, Daniel F; Doerfler, Leonard A

2016-03-01

We describe interactions among factors that contribute to the development of conduct problems among children with ADHD. An integrative developmental psychopathology analysis combines various approaches and posits one model of how diverse risk factors operate together to contribute to the development of conduct problems among children with ADHD. Substantial genetic risk increases covariation between ADHD and conduct problems. Candidate genes are associated with CNS monoaminergic neurotransmission. Subsequent neurodevelopmental impairment interferes with executive function, with impaired verbal working memory playing an important role. Parent/child bi-directional influences exacerbate the risk for conduct problems when ADHD symptoms increase the likelihood of a coercive parenting style. Parent stress in reaction to child comorbid ADHD and conduct problems, and parent attribution for the child's conduct problem behavior, add to the potential for coercion and reduce constructive parent-child interaction that might otherwise enhance the development of verbal working memory. In an integrated manner, these variables increase the risk that a child with ADHD will subsequently develop conduct problems. © The Author(s) 2014.

A Review of Cancer in U.S. Hispanic Populations

PubMed Central

Haile, Robert W.; John, Esther M.; Levine, A. Joan; Cortessis, Victoria K.; Unger, Jennifer B.; Gonzales, Melissa; Ziv, Elad; Thompson, Patricia; Spruijt-Metz, Donna; Tucker, Katherine L.; Bernstein, Jonine L.; Rohan, Thomas E.; Ho, Gloria Y.F.; Bondy, Melissa L.; Martinez, Maria Elena; Cook, Linda; Stern, Mariana C.; Correa, Marcia Cruz; Wright, Jonelle; Schwartz, Seth J.; Baezconde-Garbanati, Lourdes; Blinder, Victoria; Miranda, Patricia; Hayes, Richard; Friedman-Jiménez, George; Monroe, Kristine R.; Haiman, Christopher A.; Henderson, Brian E.; Thomas, Duncan C.; Boffetta, Paolo

2018-01-01

There are compelling reasons to conduct studies of cancer in Hispanics, the fastest growing major demographic group in the United States (from 15% to 30% of the U.S. population by 2050). The genetically admixed Hispanic population coupled with secular trends in environmental exposures and lifestyle/behavioral practices that are associated with immigration and acculturation offer opportunities for elucidating the effects of genetics, environment, and lifestyle on cancer risk and identifying novel risk factors. For example, traditional breast cancer risk factors explain less of the breast cancer risk in Hispanics than in non-Hispanic whites (NHW), and there is a substantially greater proportion of never-smokers with lung cancer in Hispanics than in NHW. Hispanics have higher incidence rates for cancers of the cervix, stomach, liver, and gall bladder than NHW. With respect to these cancers, there are intriguing patterns that warrant study (e.g., depending on country of origin, the five-fold difference in gastric cancer rates for Hispanic men but not Hispanic women). Also, despite a substantially higher incidence rate and increasing secular trend for liver cancer in Hispanics, there have been no studies of Hispanics reported to date. We review the literature and discuss study design options and features that should be considered in future studies. PMID:22307564

Estimation of permanent noise-induced hearing loss in an urban setting.

PubMed

Lewis, Ryan C; Gershon, Robyn R M; Neitzel, Richard L

2013-06-18

The potential burden of noise-induced permanent threshold shift (NIPTS) in U.S. urban settings is not well-characterized. We used ANSI S3.44-1996 to estimate NIPTS for a sample of 4585 individuals from New York City (NYC) and performed a forward stepwise logistic regression analysis to identify predictors of NIPTS >10 dB. The average individual is projected to develop a small NIPTS when averaged across 1000-4000 Hz for 1- to 20-year durations. For some individuals, NIPTS is expected to be substantial (>25 dB). At 4000 Hz, a greater number of individuals are at risk of NIPTS from MP3 players and stereos, but risk for the greatest NIPTS is for those with high occupational and episodic nonoccupational (e.g., power tool use) exposures. Employment sector and time spent listening to MP3 players and stereos and participating in episodic nonoccupational activities associated with excessive noise levels increased the odds of NIPTS >10 dB at 4000 Hz for 20-year durations. Our results indicate that the risk of NIPTS may be substantial for NYC and perhaps other urban settings. Noise exposures from "noisy" occupational and episodic nonoccupational activities and MP3 players and stereos are important risk factors and should be a priority for public health interventions.

Explaining the decline in coronary heart disease mortality in the Czech Republic between 1985 and 2007.

PubMed

Bruthans, Jan; Cífková, Renata; Lánská, Věra; O'Flaherty, Martin; Critchley, Julia A; Holub, Jiří; Janský, Petr; Zvárová, Jana; Capewell, Simon

2014-07-01

Coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality has declined substantially in the Czech Republic over the last two decades. The purpose of this study was to determine what proportion of this CHD mortality decline could be associated with temporal trends in major CHD risk factors and what proportion with advances in medical and surgical treatments. The validated IMPACT mortality model was used to combine and analyse data on uptake and effectiveness of CHD management and risk factor trends in the Czech Republic in adults aged 25-74 years between 1985 and 2007. The main sources were official statistics, national quality of care registries, published trials and meta-analyses, and the Czech MONICA and Czech post-MONICA studies. Between 1985 and 2007, age-adjusted CHD mortality rates in the Czech Republic decreased by 66.2% in men and 65.4% in women in the age group 25-74 years, representing 12,080 fewer CHD deaths in 2007. Changes in CHD risk factors explained approximately 52% of the total mortality decrease, and improvements in medical treatments approximately 43%. Increases in body mass index and in diabetes prevalence had a negative impact, increasing CHD mortality by approximately 1% and 5%, respectively. More than half of the very substantial fall in CHD mortality in the Czech Republic between 1985 and 2007 was attributable to reduction in major cardiovascular risk factors. Improvement in treatments accounted for approximately 43% of the total mortality decrease. These findings emphasize the value of primary prevention and evidence-based medical treatment. © The European Society of Cardiology 2012.

Occupational exposure to diesel engine emissions and risk of lung cancer: evidence from two case-control studies in Montreal, Canada.

PubMed

Pintos, Javier; Parent, Marie-Elise; Richardson, Lesley; Siemiatycki, Jack

2012-11-01

To examine the risk of lung cancer among men associated with exposure to diesel engine emissions incurred in a wide range of occupations and industries. 2 population-based lung cancer case-control studies were conducted in Montreal. Study I (1979-1986) comprised 857 cases and 533 population controls; study II (1996-2001) comprised 736 cases and 894 population controls. A detailed job history was obtained, from which we inferred lifetime occupational exposure to 294 agents, including diesel engine emissions. ORs were estimated for each study and in the pooled data set, adjusting for socio-demographic factors, smoking history and selected occupational carcinogens. While it proved impossible to retrospectively estimate absolute exposure concentrations, there were estimates and analyses by relative measures of cumulative exposure. Increased risks of lung cancer were found in both studies. The pooled analysis showed an OR of lung cancer associated with substantial exposure to diesel exhaust of 1.80 (95% CI 1.3 to 2.6). The risk associated with substantial exposure was higher for squamous cell carcinomas (OR 2.09; 95% CI 1.3 to 3.2) than other histological types. Joint effects between diesel exhaust exposure and tobacco smoking are compatible with a multiplicative synergistic effect. Our findings provide further evidence supporting a causal link between diesel engine emissions and risk of lung cancer. The risk is stronger for the development of squamous cell carcinomas than for small cell tumours or adenocarcinomas.

Dietary Inflammatory Index and Colorectal Cancer Risk-A Meta-Analysis.

PubMed

Shivappa, Nitin; Godos, Justyna; Hébert, James R; Wirth, Michael D; Piuri, Gabriele; Speciani, Attilio F; Grosso, Giuseppe

2017-09-20

Diet and chronic inflammation of the colon have been suggested to be risk factors in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). The possible link between inflammatory potential of diet, measured through the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII ® ), and CRC has been investigated in several populations across the world. The aim of this study was to conduct a meta-analysis on studies exploring this association. Data from nine studies were eligible, of which five were case-control and four were cohort studies. Results from meta-analysis showed a positive association between increasing DII scores, indicating a pro-inflammatory diet, and CRC. Individuals in the highest versus the lowest (reference) DII category showed an overall 40% increased risk of CRC with moderate evidence of heterogeneity [relative risk (RR) = 1.40, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.26, 1.55; I ² = 69%, p < 0.001]. When analyzed as a continuous variable, results showed an increased risk of CRC of 7% for a 1-point increase in the DII score. Results remained unchanged when analyses were restricted to the four prospective studies. Results of our meta-analysis support the importance of adopting a healthier anti-inflammatory diet in preventing CRC. These results further substantiate the utility of DII as tool to characterize the inflammatory potential of diet and to predict CRC.

Intraoperative transfusion of 1 U to 2 U packed red blood cells is associated with increased 30-day mortality, surgical-site infection, pneumonia, and sepsis in general surgery patients.

PubMed

Bernard, Andrew C; Davenport, Daniel L; Chang, Phillip K; Vaughan, Taylor B; Zwischenberger, Joseph B

2009-05-01

Transfusion of packed red blood cells (PRBCs) increases morbidity and mortality in select surgical specialty patients. The impact of low-volume, leukoreduced RBC transfusion on general surgery patients is less well understood. The American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program participant use file was queried for general surgery patients recorded in 2005 to 2006 (n = 125,223). Thirty-day morbidity (21 uniformly defined complications) and mortality, demographic, preoperative, and intraoperative risk variables were obtained. Infectious complications and composite morbidity and mortality were stratified across intraoperative PRBCs units received. Multivariable logistic regression was used to assess influence of transfusion on outcomes, while adjusting for transfusion propensity, procedure type, wound class, operative duration, and 30+ patient risk factors. After adjustment for transfusion propensity, procedure group, wound class, operative duration, and all other important risk variables, 1 U PRBCs significantly (p < 0.05) increased risk of 30-day mortality (odds ratio [OR] = 1.32), composite morbidity (OR = 1.23), pneumonia (OR = 1.24), and sepsis/shock (OR = 1.29). Transfusion of 2 U additionally increased risk for these outcomes (OR = 1.38, 1.40, 1.25, 1.53, respectively; p

The Long and Short Term Impact of Elevated Body Mass Index on Risk of New Atrial Fibrillation in the Women’s Health Study

PubMed Central

Tedrow, Usha B; Conen, David; Ridker, Paul M; Cook, Nancy R; Koplan, Bruce A; Manson, JoAnn E; Buring, Julie E; Albert, Christine M

2010-01-01

Objectives To characterize the relationship between changes in body mass index (BMI) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) in a large cohort of women. Background Obesity and AF are increasing public health problems. The importance of dynamic obesity-associated AF risk is uncertain, and mediators are not well characterized. Methods Cases of AF were confirmed by medical record review in 34,309 participants in the Women’s Health Study. Baseline and updated measures of BMI were obtained from periodic questionnaires. Results Over 12.9 +/− 1.9 years of follow-up, 834 AF events were confirmed. BMI was linearly associated with AF risk, with a 4.7% (95% CI 3.4, 6.1, p<0.0001) increase in risk with each kg/m2. Adjustment for inflammatory markers minimally attenuated this risk. When updated measures of BMI were utilized to estimate dynamic risk, overweight (HR 1.22 95%CI 1.02, 1.45, p=0.03) and obesity (HR 1.65 95%CI 1.36, 2.00, p<0.0001) were associated with adjusted short term elevations in AF risk. Participants becoming obese during the first 60 months had a 41% adjusted increase in risk of developing AF (p=0.02) compared to those maintaining BMI <30 kg/m2. The prevalence of overweight and obesity increased over time. The adjusted proportion of incident AF attributable to short term elevations in BMI was substantial (18.3%). Conclusions In this population of apparently healthy women, BMI was associated with short and long term elevations in AF risk, accounting for a large proportion of incident AF independent of traditional risk factors. A strategy of weight control may reduce the increasing incidence of AF. PMID:20488302

Psychological Factors and Cardiac Risk And Impact of Exercise Training Programs—A Review of Ochsner Studies

PubMed Central

Lavie, Carl J.; Milani, Richard V.; Artham, Surya M.; Gilliland, Yvonne

2007-01-01

Although under-emphasized, substantial evidence indicates that psychological distress, especially depression, hostility, and anxiety, are risk factors for coronary heart disease (CHD) and affect recovery following major coronary heart disease events. We review several major studies from Ochsner Medical Center demonstrating the high prevalence of psychological distress in CHD patients and the marked benefits that occur following formal cardiac rehabilitation and exercise training programs. These benefits include reductions in psychological stress, improvements in CHD risk factors that accompany high stress, and reduced all-cause mortality. These data support the benefits of exercise training and increased levels of fitness to improve psychological stress and subsequent prognosis. PMID:21603539

Fracture risk by HIV infection status in perinatally HIV-exposed children.

PubMed

Siberry, George K; Li, Hong; Jacobson, Denise

2012-03-01

The objective of this study was to examine the incidence of fractures in HIV-infected children and comparable HIV-exposed, uninfected (HEU) children in a multicenter, prospective cohort study (PACTG 219/219C) in the United States. The main outcome was first fracture during the risk period. Nine fractures occurred in 7 of 1326 HIV-infected and 2 of 649 HEU children, corresponding to incidence rates of 1.2 per 1000 person-years and 1.1 per 1000 person-years, respectively. The incidence rate ratio was 1.1 (95% CI 0.2, 5.5). There was no evidence of a substantially increased risk of fracture in HIV-infected compared to HEU children.

Differential Effects of Estrogen and Progesterone on Genetic and Environmental Risk for Emotional Eating in Women

PubMed Central

Klump, Kelly L.; O’Connor, Shannon M.; Hildebrandt, Britny A.; Keel, Pamela K.; Neale, Michael; Sisk, Cheryl L.; Boker, Steven; Burt, S. Alexandra

2016-01-01

Recent data show shifts in genetic and environmental influences on emotional eating across the menstrual cycle, with significant shared environmental influences during pre-ovulation, and primarily genetic effects during post-ovulation. Factors driving differential effects are unknown, although increased estradiol during pre-ovulation and increased progesterone during post-ovulation are thought to play a role. We indirectly investigated this possibility by examining whether overall levels of estradiol and progesterone differentially impact genetic and environmental risk for emotional eating in adult female twins (N = 571) drawn from the MSU Twin Registry. Emotional eating, estradiol levels, and progesterone levels were assessed daily and then averaged to create aggregate measures for analysis. As predicted, shared environmental influences were significantly greater in twins with high estradiol levels, whereas additive genetic effects increased substantially across low versus high progesterone groups. Results highlight significant and differential effects of ovarian hormones on etiologic risk for emotional eating in adulthood. PMID:27747142

The increasing unemployment gap between the low and high educated in West Germany. Structural or cyclical crowding-out?

PubMed

Klein, Markus

2015-03-01

This paper addresses trends in education-specific unemployment risks at labor market entry in West Germany from the mid-1970s to the present. In line with previous research it shows that vocationally qualified school-leavers have relatively lower unemployment risks than school-leavers with general education. Over time, the gap in unemployment risks between the low-educated and medium- and highly educated labor market entrants substantially widened for both sexes. The literature identifies two different mechanisms for this trend: structural or cyclical crowding out. While in the former scenario low-educated become increasingly unemployed due to an oversupply of tertiary graduates and displacement from above, in the latter their relative unemployment risk varies with the business cycle. The results provide evidence for cyclical rather than structural crowding-out in West Germany. Since macroeconomic conditions became generally worse over time, this strongly explains the widening unemployment gap between the low-educated and all other education groups. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increased Extreme Hydrological Events and Decreased Water Supply Availability for the Southwestern United States Projected by Mid-Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagan, B. R.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.; Naz, B. S.; Kao, S. C.; Mei, R.; Kendall, D. R.; Pal, J. S.

2014-12-01

Semi-arid Southern California relies primarily on imported water originating mostly from snowpack in basins outside of the region including the San-Joaquin River, Tulare Lake, Sacramento River, Owens Valley, Mono Lake, and Colorado River basins. This study provides an integrated ensemble approach to assessing climate change impacts on the hydrologic cycle and hydrologic extremes for all water supplies to Southern California. Output from 10 global climate models is used to force a regional climate model and hydrological model resulting in high-resolution 4.17-km output for the region. Greenhouse gas concentrations are prescribed according to historical values for the present-day (1965-2005) and the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for the near to mid term future (2010-2050). On the annual timescale, temperature, precipitation and evaporation increase throughout the majority of the study area. With increased temperatures, precipitation is less likely to fall as snow, decreasing snowpack and natural storage and shifting peak flows to earlier in the year. Daily annual maximum runoff and precipitation events are projected to significantly increase in intensity and frequency by mid-century. The 50-year event, for example, becomes approximately five times more likely in the Colorado River basin and twice as likely in the other basins. In densely populated coastal Southern Californian cities, extreme flood events become three to five times as likely substantially increasing the risk of overburdening flood control systems and potential widespread flooding. The escalating likelihood of the combined effects of runoff occurring earlier in the year and in significantly higher amounts poses a substantial flood control risk requiring adaptation measures such as water release from reservoirs. Significant snowpack reductions and increased flood risk will likely necessitate additional multiyear storage solutions for urban and agricultural regions in the Southwestern US.

Increased Extreme Hydrological Events and Decreased Water Supply Availability for the Southwestern United States Projected by Mid-Century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pagan, B. R.; Ashfaq, M.; Rastogi, D.; Naz, B. S.; Kao, S. C.; Mei, R.; Kendall, D. R.; Pal, J. S.

2015-12-01

Semi-arid Southern California relies primarily on imported water originating mostly from snowpack in basins outside of the region including the San-Joaquin River, Tulare Lake, Sacramento River, Owens Valley, Mono Lake, and Colorado River basins. This study provides an integrated ensemble approach to assessing climate change impacts on the hydrologic cycle and hydrologic extremes for all water supplies to Southern California. Output from 10 global climate models is used to force a regional climate model and hydrological model resulting in high-resolution 4.17-km output for the region. Greenhouse gas concentrations are prescribed according to historical values for the present-day (1965-2005) and the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for the near to mid term future (2010-2050). On the annual timescale, temperature, precipitation and evaporation increase throughout the majority of the study area. With increased temperatures, precipitation is less likely to fall as snow, decreasing snowpack and natural storage and shifting peak flows to earlier in the year. Daily annual maximum runoff and precipitation events are projected to significantly increase in intensity and frequency by mid-century. The 50-year event, for example, becomes approximately five times more likely in the Colorado River basin and twice as likely in the other basins. In densely populated coastal Southern Californian cities, extreme flood events become three to five times as likely substantially increasing the risk of overburdening flood control systems and potential widespread flooding. The escalating likelihood of the combined effects of runoff occurring earlier in the year and in significantly higher amounts poses a substantial flood control risk requiring adaptation measures such as water release from reservoirs. Significant snowpack reductions and increased flood risk will likely necessitate additional multiyear storage solutions for urban and agricultural regions in the Southwestern US.

Assessing the contribution of borderline personality disorder and features to suicide risk in psychiatric inpatients with bipolar disorder, major depression and schizoaffective disorder.

PubMed

Zeng, Ruifan; Cohen, Lisa J; Tanis, Thachell; Qizilbash, Azra; Lopatyuk, Yana; Yaseen, Zimri S; Galynker, Igor

2015-03-30

Suicidal behavior often accompanies both borderline personality disorder (BPD) and severe mood disorders, and comorbidity between the two appears to further increase suicide risk. The current study aims to quantify the risk of suicidality conferred by comorbid BPD diagnosis or features in three affective disorders: major depressive disorder (MDD), bipolar disorder (BP) and schizoaffective disorder. One hundred forty-nine (149) psychiatric inpatients were assessed by SCID I and II, and the Columbia Suicide Severity Rating Scale. Logistic regression analyses investigated the associations between previous suicide attempt and BPD diagnosis or features in patients with MDD, BP, and schizoaffective disorder, as well as a history of manic or major depressive episodes, and psychotic symptoms. Comorbid BPD diagnosis significantly increased suicide risk in the whole sample, and in those with MDD, BP, and history of depressive episode or psychotic symptoms. Each additional borderline feature also increased risk of past suicide attempt in these same groups (excepting BP) and in those with a previous manic episode. Of the BPD criteria, only unstable relationships and impulsivity independently predicted past suicide attempt. Overall, among patients with severe mood disorders, the presence of comorbid BPD features or disorder appears to substantially increase the risk of suicide attempts. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Depression is more than the sum-score of its parts: individual DSM symptoms have different risk factors

PubMed Central

Fried, Eiko I.; Nesse, Randolph M.; Zivin, Kara; Guille, Constance; Sen, Srijan

2014-01-01

Background For diagnostic purposes, the nine symptoms that compose the DSM-5 criteria for Major Depressive Disorder (MDD) are assumed to be interchangeable indicators of one underlying disorder, implying that they should all have similar risk factors. The present study investigates this hypothesis, utilizing a population cohort that shifts from low to elevated depression levels. Methods We assessed the nine DSM-5 MDD criterion symptoms and seven depression risk factors (personal and family MDD history, sex, childhood stress, neuroticism, work hours, and stressful life events) in a longitudinal study of medical interns prior to and throughout internship (n=1289). We tested if risk factors varied across symptoms, and whether a latent disease model could account for heterogeneity between symptoms. Results All MDD symptoms increased significantly during residency training. Four risk factors predicted increases in unique subsets of PHQ-9 symptoms over time (depression history, childhood stress, sex, and stressful life events), while neuroticism and work hours predicted increases in all symptoms, albeit to varying magnitudes. MDD family history did not predict increases in any symptom. The strong heterogeneity of associations persisted after controlling for a latent depression factor. Conclusions The influence of risk factors varies substantially across DSM depression criterion symptoms. Since symptoms are etiologically heterogeneous, considering individual symptoms in addition to depression diagnosis might offer important insights obfuscated by symptom sum-scores. PMID:24289852

The epidemiology of venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Heit, John A; Spencer, Frederick A; White, Richard H

2016-01-01

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is categorized by the U.S. Surgeon General as a major public health problem. VTE is relatively common and associated with reduced survival and substantial health-care costs, and recurs frequently. VTE is a complex (multifactorial) disease, involving interactions between acquired or inherited predispositions to thrombosis and VTE risk factors, including increasing patient age and obesity, hospitalization for surgery or acute illness, nursing-home confinement, active cancer, trauma or fracture, immobility or leg paresis, superficial vein thrombosis, and, in women, pregnancy and puerperium, oral contraception, and hormone therapy. Although independent VTE risk factors and predictors of VTE recurrence have been identified, and effective primary and secondary prophylaxis is available, the occurrence of VTE seems to be relatively constant, or even increasing.

Couple resilience to economic pressure.

PubMed

Conger, R D; Rueter, M A; Elder, G H

1999-01-01

Over 400 married couples participated in a 3-year prospective study of economic pressure and marital relations. The research (a) empirically evaluated the family stress model of economic stress influences on marital distress and (b) extended the model to include specific interactional characteristics of spouses hypothesized to protect against economic pressure. Findings provided support for the basic mediational model, which proposes that economic pressure increases risk for emotional distress, which, in turn, increases risk for marital conflict and subsequent marital distress. Regarding resilience to economic stress, high marital support reduced the association between economic pressure and emotional distress. In addition, effective couple problem solving reduced the adverse influence of marital conflict on marital distress. Overall, the findings provided substantial support for the extended family stress model.

Contamination in the Prospective Study of Child Maltreatment and Female Adolescent Health

PubMed Central

Noll, Jennie G.; Peugh, James L.; Griffin, Amanda M.; Bensman, Heather E.

2016-01-01

Objective To evaluate the impact of contamination, or the presence of child maltreatment in a comparison condition, when estimating the broad, longitudinal effects of child maltreatment on female health at the transition to adulthood. Methods The Female Adolescent Development Study (N = 514; age range: 14–19 years) used a prospective cohort design to examine the effects of substantiated child maltreatment on teenage births, obesity, major depression, and past-month cigarette use. Contamination was controlled via a multimethod strategy that used both adolescent self-report and Child Protective Services records to remove cases of child maltreatment from the comparison condition. Results Substantiated child maltreatment significantly predicted each outcome, relative risks = 1.47–2.95, 95% confidence intervals: 1.03–7.06, with increases in corresponding effect size magnitudes, only when contamination was controlled using the multimethod strategy. Conclusions Contamination truncates risk estimates of child maltreatment and controlling it can strengthen overall conclusions about the effects of child maltreatment on female health. PMID:25797944

Alternative research funding to improve clinical outcomes: model of prediction and prevention of sudden cardiac death.

PubMed

Myerburg, Robert J; Ullmann, Steven G

2015-04-01

Although identification and management of cardiovascular risk markers have provided important population risk insights and public health benefits, individual risk prediction remains challenging. Using sudden cardiac death risk as a base case, the complex epidemiology of sudden cardiac death risk and the substantial new funding required to study individual risk are explored. Complex epidemiology derives from the multiple subgroups having different denominators and risk profiles, while funding limitations emerge from saturation of conventional sources of research funding without foreseeable opportunities for increases. A resolution to this problem would have to emerge from new sources of funding targeted to individual risk prediction. In this analysis, we explore the possibility of a research funding strategy that would offer business incentives to the insurance industries, while providing support for unresolved research goals. The model is developed for the case of sudden cardiac death risk, but the concept is applicable to other areas of the medical enterprise. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Accidental versus operational oil spills from shipping in the Baltic Sea: risk governance and management strategies.

PubMed

Hassler, Björn

2011-03-01

Marine governance of oil transportation is complex. Due to difficulties in effectively monitoring procedures on vessels en voyage, incentives to save costs by not following established regulations on issues such as cleaning of tanks, crew size, and safe navigation may be substantial. The issue of problem structure is placed in focus, that is, to what degree the specific characteristics and complexity of intentional versus accidental oil spill risks affect institutional responses. It is shown that whereas the risk of accidental oil spills primarily has been met by technical requirements on the vessels in combination with Port State control, attempts have been made to curb intentional pollution by for example increased surveillance and smart governance mechanisms such as the No-Special-Fee system. It is suggested that environmental safety could be improved by increased use of smart governance mechanisms tightly adapted to key actors' incentives to alter behavior in preferable directions.

Transport and public health in China: the road to a healthy future

PubMed Central

Jiang, Baoguo; Liang, Song; Peng, Zhong-Ren; Cong, Haozhe; Levy, Morgan; Cheng, Qu; Wang, Tianbing; Remais, Justin

2017-01-01

Transportation-related risk factors are a major source of morbidity and mortality in China, where expansion of road networks and surges in personal vehicle ownership are having profound effects on public health. Road traffic injuries and fatalities have increased alongside motorized transport in China, and accident injury risk is aggravated by inadequate emergency response systems and trauma care. National air quality standards and emission control technologies are having a positive effect, yet persistent air pollution is increasingly attributable to a growing and outdated vehicle fleet, and famously congested roads. Urban design favors motorized transport, and physical activity and its associated health benefits are hindered by poor urban infrastructure. Transport emissions of greenhouse gases contribute substantially to regional and global climate change, which compound public health risks from multiple factors. Despite these complex challenges, technological advances and innovations in planning and policy stand to make China a leader in sustainable, healthy transportation. PMID:29047445

Documented family violence and risk of suicide attempt among U.S. Army soldiers.

PubMed

Ursano, Robert J; Stein, Murray B; Herberman Mash, Holly B; Naifeh, James A; Fullerton, Carol S; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Ng, Tsz Hin Hinz; Aliaga, Pablo A; Wynn, Gary H; Dinh, Hieu M; McCarroll, James E; Sampson, Nancy A; Kao, Tzu-Cheg; Schoenbaum, Michael; Heeringa, Steven G; Kessler, Ronald C

2018-04-01

Suicide attempt (SA) rates in the U.S. Army increased substantially during the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. This study examined associations of family violence (FV) history with SA risk among soldiers. Using administrative data from the Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (Army STARRS), we identified person-month records of active duty, Regular Army, enlisted soldiers with medically documented SAs from 2004 to 2009 (n = 9650) and a sample of control person-months (n = 153,528). Logistic regression analyses examined associations of FV with SA, adjusting for socio-demographics, service-related characteristics, and prior mental health diagnosis. Odds of SA were higher in soldiers with a FV history and increased as the number of FV events increased. Soldiers experiencing past-month FV were almost five times as likely to attempt suicide as those with no FV history. Odds of SA were elevated for both perpetrators and those who were exclusively victims. Male perpetrators had higher odds of SA than male victims, whereas female perpetrators and female victims did not differ in SA risk. A discrete-time hazard function indicated that SA risk was highest in the initial months following the first FV event. FV is an important consideration in understanding risk of SA among soldiers. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Estimating the contribution of genetic variants to difference in incidence of disease between population groups.

PubMed

Moonesinghe, Ramal; Ioannidis, John P A; Flanders, W Dana; Yang, Quanhe; Truman, Benedict I; Khoury, Muin J

2012-08-01

Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic susceptibility variants to several complex human diseases. However, risk-genotype frequency at loci showing robust associations might differ substantially among different populations. In this paper, we present methods to assess the contribution of genetic variants to the difference in the incidence of disease between different population groups for different scenarios. We derive expressions for the contribution of a single genetic variant, multiple genetic variants, and the contribution of the joint effect of a genetic variant and an environmental factor to the difference in the incidence of disease. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence increases with increasing difference in risk-genotype frequency, but declines with increasing difference in incidence between the two populations. The contribution of genetic variants also increases with increasing relative risk and the contribution of joint effect of genetic and environmental factors increases with increasing relative risk of the gene-environmental interaction. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence between two populations can be expressed as a function of the population attributable risks of the genetic variants in the two populations. The contribution of a group of genetic variants to the disparity in incidence of disease could change considerably by adding one more genetic variant to the group. Any estimate of genetic contribution to the disparity in incidence of disease between two populations at this stage seems to be an elusive goal.

Estimating the contribution of genetic variants to difference in incidence of disease between population groups

PubMed Central

Moonesinghe, Ramal; Ioannidis, John PA; Flanders, W Dana; Yang, Quanhe; Truman, Benedict I; Khoury, Muin J

2012-01-01

Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic susceptibility variants to several complex human diseases. However, risk-genotype frequency at loci showing robust associations might differ substantially among different populations. In this paper, we present methods to assess the contribution of genetic variants to the difference in the incidence of disease between different population groups for different scenarios. We derive expressions for the contribution of a single genetic variant, multiple genetic variants, and the contribution of the joint effect of a genetic variant and an environmental factor to the difference in the incidence of disease. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence increases with increasing difference in risk-genotype frequency, but declines with increasing difference in incidence between the two populations. The contribution of genetic variants also increases with increasing relative risk and the contribution of joint effect of genetic and environmental factors increases with increasing relative risk of the gene–environmental interaction. The contribution of genetic variants to the difference in incidence between two populations can be expressed as a function of the population attributable risks of the genetic variants in the two populations. The contribution of a group of genetic variants to the disparity in incidence of disease could change considerably by adding one more genetic variant to the group. Any estimate of genetic contribution to the disparity in incidence of disease between two populations at this stage seems to be an elusive goal. PMID:22333905

Finding big shots: small-area mapping and spatial modelling of obesity among Swiss male conscripts.

PubMed

Panczak, Radoslaw; Held, Leonhard; Moser, André; Jones, Philip A; Rühli, Frank J; Staub, Kaspar

2016-01-01

In Switzerland, as in other developed countries, the prevalence of overweight and obesity has increased substantially since the early 1990s. Most of the analyses so far have been based on sporadic surveys or self-reported data and did not offer potential for small-area analyses. The goal of this study was to investigate spatial variation and determinants of obesity among young Swiss men using recent conscription data. A complete, anonymized dataset of conscription records for the 2010-2012 period were provided by Swiss Armed Forces. We used a series of Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression models to investigate the spatial pattern of obesity across 3,187 postcodes, varying them by type of random effects (spatially unstructured and structured), level of adjustment by individual (age and professional status) and area-based [urbanicity and index of socio-economic position (SEP)] characteristics. The analysed dataset consisted of 100,919 conscripts, out of which 5,892 (5.8 %) were obese. Crude obesity prevalence increased with age among conscripts of lower individual and area-based SEP and varied greatly over postcodes. Best model's estimates of adjusted odds ratios of obesity on postcode level ranged from 0.61 to 1.93 and showed a strong spatial pattern of obesity risk across the country. Odds ratios above 1 concentrated in central and north Switzerland. Smaller pockets of elevated obesity risk also emerged around cities of Geneva, Fribourg and Lausanne. Lower estimates were observed in North-East and East as well as south of the Alps. Importantly, small regional outliers were observed and patterning did not follow administrative boundaries. Similarly as with crude obesity prevalence, the best fitting model confirmed increasing risk of obesity with age and among conscripts of lower professional status. The risk decreased with higher area-based SEP and, to a lesser degree - in rural areas. In Switzerland, there is a substantial spatial variation in obesity risk among young Swiss men. Small-area estimates of obesity risk derived from conscripts records contribute to its understanding and could be used to design further studies and interventions.

Groin Problems in Male Soccer Players Are More Common Than Previously Reported.

PubMed

Harøy, Joar; Clarsen, Ben; Thorborg, Kristian; Hölmich, Per; Bahr, Roald; Andersen, Thor Einar

2017-05-01

The majority of surveillance studies in soccer have used a time-loss injury definition, and many groin problems result from overuse, leading to gradually increasing pain and/or reduced performance without necessarily causing an absence from soccer training or match play. Thus, the magnitude of groin problems in soccer has probably been underestimated in previous studies based on traditional injury surveillance methods. To investigate the prevalence of groin problems among soccer players of both sexes and among male soccer players at different levels of play through a new surveillance method developed to capture acute and overuse problems. Descriptive epidemiology study. We registered groin problems during a 6-week period of match congestion using the Oslo Sports Trauma Research Center Overuse Injury Questionnaire. A total of 240 players from 15 teams across different levels of play and from both sexes were included, and they responded to the weekly questionnaire. We calculated the average weekly prevalence of all groin problems and substantial groin problems. Of the 240 players, 112 male players (59%) and 20 female players (45%) reported at least 1 episode of groin problems. The average weekly prevalence of any groin problem and substantial groin problem for all male players was 29% (range, 23%-32% across different levels) and 10% (7%-13%), respectively. Elite male players had an increased risk of experiencing groin problems (odds ratio: 3.1, 95% CI: 1.5-6.4, P = .03) compared with elite female players. There was no difference in the risk of experiencing groin problems among elite, subelite, and amateur male players. For substantial problems, there was no difference between elite male and elite female players or among levels of play for senior male soccer players. We found a high prevalence of groin problems among male soccer players during a period with match congestion. Time-loss definition as used in previous injury surveillance studies captured only one-third of the male groin problems registered with the new method. Elite male players had 3 times' higher risk of reporting groin problems as compared with elite female players, while playing level did not influence the risk of reporting a groin problem among males.

[Incidence of breast cancer in France and other industrialized countries].

PubMed

Estève, Jacques

2007-02-01

The incidence of breast cancer increased over the last 20 years of the 20(th) century in all industrialized countries. The shape of the trend varied according to country. The increase in the prevalence of risk factors associated with a "western" lifestyle has had a major influence on this increase in countries where incidence was low at the start of the study period. Generalized screening practices, on the other hand, has played a key role in countries where incidence was already elevated in the 1970s. This evolution over time, together with the cohort effect (associated with year of birth), makes analysis and interpretation of the available international data too complex to allow us to quantify the respective contributions of screening, treatments and risk factors to mortality trends, which are beginning to decrease substantially in most countries with elevated incidence rates.

CE: Can Your Older Patients Drive Safely?

PubMed

Staplin, Loren; Lococo, Kathy H; Mastromatto, Tia; Sifrit, Kathy J; Trazzera, Kathleen M

2017-09-01

: In many areas of the world, driving is an essential part of life and for reasons of comfort, convenience, and security remains the primary mode of transportation among older adults. Both normal aging and diseases that are more prevalent in advanced age can substantially reduce older drivers' functional abilities, elevating their risk of involvement in motor vehicle accidents and serious injury or death. Identifying and intervening with older drivers at increased crash risk is an important aspect of preventive medicine. The authors discuss the specific driving risks adults face as they age and how nurses can raise older patients' awareness of these risks. They also discuss the importance of connecting older adults to community resources that may help them continue driving safely for a longer period or find alternative transportation options.

Pooling biomarker data from different studies of disease risk, with a focus on endogenous hormones

PubMed Central

Key, Timothy J; Appleby, Paul N; Allen, Naomi E; Reeves, Gillian K

2010-01-01

Large numbers of observations are needed to provide adequate power in epidemiological studies of biomarkers and cancer risk. However, there are currently few large mature studies with adequate numbers of cases with biospecimens available. Therefore pooling biomarker measures from different studies is a valuable approach, enabling investigators to make robust estimates of risk and to examine associations in subgroups of the population. The ideal situation is to have standardized methods in all studies so that the biomarker data can be pooled in their original units. However, even when the studies do not have standardized methods, as with existing studies on hormones and cancer, a simple approach using study-specific quantiles or percentage increases can provide substantial information on the relationship of the biomarker with cancer risk. PMID:20233851

[Standardization of cryopreservation process of Saccharomyces boulardii yeasts for usage in collections and banks of industrial microorganism strains].

PubMed

Gurina, T M; Vysekantsev, I P; Babinets, O M

2013-01-01

New implementation principle of freeze-thawing during cryopreservation of microorganisms, initiation of the process of crystal formation at cooling and thawing stage with the controlled rate of heating was experimentally substantiated. This allows increasing the cell viability, guaranteeing their equal number in each preparation, decreasing the contamination risk of the samples at thawing stage.

SHOULDER DISORDERS AND OCCUPATION

PubMed Central

Linaker, CH; Walker-Bone, K

2016-01-01

Shoulder pain is very common and causes substantial morbidity. Standardised classification systems based upon presumed patho-anatomical origins have proved poorly reproducible and hampered epidemiological research. Despite this, there is evidence that exposure to combinations of physical workplace strains such as overhead working, heavy lifting and forceful work as well as working in an awkward posture increase the risk of shoulder disorders. Psychosocial risk factors are also associated. There is currently little evidence to suggest that either primary prevention or treatment strategies in the workplace are very effective and more research is required, particularly around the cost-effectiveness of different strategies. PMID:26612238

Optimal CO2 mitigation under damage risk valuation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Crost, Benjamin; Traeger, Christian P.

2014-07-01

The current generation has to set mitigation policy under uncertainty about the economic consequences of climate change. This uncertainty governs both the level of damages for a given level of warming, and the steepness of the increase in damage per warming degree. Our model of climate and the economy is a stochastic version of a model employed in assessing the US Social Cost of Carbon (DICE). We compute the optimal carbon taxes and CO2 abatement levels that maximize welfare from economic consumption over time under different risk states. In accordance with recent developments in finance, we separate preferences about time and risk to improve the model's calibration of welfare to observed market interest. We show that introducing the modern asset pricing framework doubles optimal abatement and carbon taxation. Uncertainty over the level of damages at a given temperature increase can result in a slight increase of optimal emissions as compared to using expected damages. In contrast, uncertainty governing the steepness of the damage increase in temperature results in a substantially higher level of optimal mitigation.

78 FR 4835 - Endangered and Threatened Species; Recovery Plan for the North Pacific Right Whale

Federal Register 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014

2013-01-23

... threatened status (has no more than a 1 percent chance of extinction in 100 years) and the global population... substantially contribute to a real risk of extinction that cannot be incorporated into a Population Viability... factors or circumstances that are thought to substantially contribute to a real risk of extinction that...

Major Physical Health Conditions and Risk of Suicide.

PubMed

Ahmedani, Brian K; Peterson, Edward L; Hu, Yong; Rossom, Rebecca C; Lynch, Frances; Lu, Christine Y; Waitzfelder, Beth E; Owen-Smith, Ashli A; Hubley, Samuel; Prabhakar, Deepak; Williams, L Keoki; Zeld, Nicole; Mutter, Elizabeth; Beck, Arne; Tolsma, Dennis; Simon, Gregory E

2017-09-01

Most individuals make healthcare visits before suicide, but many do not have a diagnosed mental health condition. This study seeks to investigate suicide risk among patients with a range of physical health conditions in a U.S. general population sample and whether risk persists after adjustment for mental health and substance use diagnoses. This study included 2,674 individuals who died by suicide between 2000 and 2013 along with 267,400 controls matched on year and location in a case-control study conducted in 2016 across eight Mental Health Research Network healthcare systems. A total of 19 physical health conditions were identified using diagnostic codes within the healthcare systems' Virtual Data Warehouse, including electronic health record and insurance claims data, during the year before index date. Seventeen physical health conditions were associated with increased suicide risk after adjustment for age and sex (p<0.001); nine associations persisted after additional adjustment for mental health and substance use diagnoses. Three conditions had a more than twofold increased suicide risk: traumatic brain injury (AOR=8.80, p<0.001); sleep disorders; and HIV/AIDS. Multimorbidity was present in 38% of cases versus 15.5% of controls, and represented nearly a twofold increased risk for suicide. Although several individual conditions, for example, traumatic brain injury, were associated with high risk of suicide, nearly all physical health conditions increased suicide risk, even after adjustment for potential confounders. In addition, having multiple physical health conditions increased suicide risk substantially. These data support suicide prevention based on the overall burden of physical health. Copyright © 2017 American Journal of Preventive Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Suicide among immigrants in Europe--a systematic literature review.

PubMed

Spallek, Jacob; Reeske, Anna; Norredam, Marie; Nielsen, Signe Smith; Lehnhardt, Jessica; Razum, Oliver

2015-02-01

Concerns about increased suicide risk among immigrants to European countries have been raised. We review the scientific literature on differences in suicide among immigrants compared with the majority populations in Europe's major immigration countries. We searched the databases PubMed and PsycINFO for peer-reviewed epidemiological studies published in 1990-2011, which compared suicide risks of adult immigrant groups with the risks of the majority population in European countries. Hits were screened by two researchers. We included 24 studies in the review. No generalizable pattern of suicide among immigrants was found. Immigrants from countries in which suicide risks are particularly high, i.e. countries in Northern and Eastern Europe, experienced higher suicide rates relative to groups without migration background. Gender and age differences were observed. Young female immigrants from Turkey, East Africa and South Asia are a risk group. Immigrants 'bring along' their suicide risk, at least for the initial period they spend in the immigration country. Health-care planners and providers need to be aware of this 'imported risks'. However, most immigrant groups do not have an increased suicide risk relative to the local-born population; some may even experience substantially lower risks. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Postural stability is compromised by fatiguing overhead work.

PubMed

Nussbaum, Maury A

2003-01-01

In a laboratory setting, 16 participants performed a repetitive overhead tapping task for 3 hours or until self-terminated due to substantial shoulder discomfort. Several measures of postural sway and stability were obtained using a force plate, both during quiet standing and during performance of the tapping task. Sway area and peak sway velocity showed consistent increases with time, whereas changes in average velocity and peak whole-body center-of-mass acceleration were either small or nonsignificant. Although relatively insensitive to several task variables, changes in sway areas and peak velocities were substantially larger in trials terminated by the participants. It is argued that fatigue plays a more important role than simple task duration in causing the observed increases in sway, and hence decreases in postural stability. Potential whole-body consequences of localized musculoskeletal stresses appear supported by the results, and implications for safety, risks of falls, and work scheduling are discussed.

Space station integrated propulsion and fluid systems study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bicknell, B.; Wilson, S.; Dennis, M.; Shepard, D.; Rossier, R.

1988-01-01

The program study was performed in two tasks: Task 1 addressed propulsion systems and Task 2 addressed all fluid systems associated with the Space Station elements, which also included propulsion and pressurant systems. Program results indicated a substantial reduction in life cycle costs through integrating the oxygen/hydrogen propulsion system with the environmental control and life support system, and through supplying nitrogen in a cryogenic gaseous supercritical or subcritical liquid state. A water sensitivity analysis showed that increasing the food water content would substantially increase the amount of water available for propulsion use and in all cases, the implementation of the BOSCH CO2 reduction process would reduce overall life cycle costs to the station and minimize risk. An investigation of fluid systems and associated requirements revealed a delicate balance between the individual propulsion and fluid systems across work packages and a strong interdependence between all other fluid systems.

Continuous relationships between non-diabetic hyperglycaemia and both cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle (AusDiab) study.

PubMed

Barr, E L M; Boyko, E J; Zimmet, P Z; Wolfe, R; Tonkin, A M; Shaw, J E

2009-03-01

Hyperglycaemia is a risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality in individuals without diabetes. We investigated: (1) whether the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality extended continuously throughout the range of fasting plasma glucose (FPG), 2 h plasma glucose (2hPG) and HbA(1c) values; and (2) the ability of these measures to improve risk prediction for mortality. Data on 10,026 people aged >or=25 years without diagnosed diabetes were obtained from the population-based Australian Diabetes, Obesity and Lifestyle study. Between 1999 and 2000, FPG, 2hPG and HbA(1c) were assessed and all-cause (332 deaths) and CVD (88 deaths) mortality were obtained after 7 years. Both 2hPG and HbA(1c) exhibited linear relationships with all-cause and CVD mortality, whereas FPG showed J-shaped relationships. The adjusted HR (95% CI) for all-cause mortality per SD increase was 1.2 (1.1-1.3) for 2hPG and 1.1 (1.0-1.2) for HbA(1c). The HR for FPG <5.1 mmol/l (per SD decrease) was 2.0 (1.3-3.0); for FPG >or=5.1 mmol/l (per SD increase) the HR was 1.1 (1.0-1.2). Corresponding HRs for CVD mortality were 1.2 (1.0-1.4), 1.2 (1.0-1.3), 4.0 (2.1-7.6) and 1.3 (1.1-1.4). The discriminative ability of each measure was similar; no measure substantially improved individual risk identification over traditional risk factors. In individuals without diagnosed diabetes, 2hPG and FPG, but not HbA(1c) were significant predictors of all-cause mortality, whereas all measures were significant predictors of CVD mortality. However, these glucose measures did not substantially improve individual risk identification.

Risk for Travel-associated Legionnaires’ Disease, Europe, 2009

PubMed Central

Zucs, Phillip; de Jong, Birgitta

2012-01-01

Legionnaires’ disease is underreported in Europe; notification rates differ substantially among countries. Approximately 20% of reported cases are travel-associated. To assess the risk for travel-associated Legionnaires’ disease (TALD) associated with travel patterns in European countries, we retrieved TALD surveillance data for 2009 from the European Surveillance System, and tourism denominator data from the Statistical Office of the European Union. Risk (number cases reported/number nights spent) was calculated by travel country. In 2009, the network reported 607 cases among European travelers, possibly associated with 825 accommodation sites in European Union countries. The overall risk associated with travel abroad was 0.3 cases/million nights. We observed an increasing trend in risk from northwestern to southeastern Europe; Greece had the highest risk (1.7). Our findings underscore the need for countries with high TALD risks to improve prevention and control of legionellosis; and for countries with high TALD risks, but low notification rates of Legionnaires’ disease to improve diagnostics and reporting. PMID:23092591

Frailty Models for Familial Risk with Application to Breast Cancer.

PubMed

Gorfine, Malka; Hsu, Li; Parmigiani, Giovanni

2013-12-01

In evaluating familial risk for disease we have two main statistical tasks: assessing the probability of carrying an inherited genetic mutation conferring higher risk; and predicting the absolute risk of developing diseases over time, for those individuals whose mutation status is known. Despite substantial progress, much remains unknown about the role of genetic and environmental risk factors, about the sources of variation in risk among families that carry high-risk mutations, and about the sources of familial aggregation beyond major Mendelian effects. These sources of heterogeneity contribute substantial variation in risk across families. In this paper we present simple and efficient methods for accounting for this variation in familial risk assessment. Our methods are based on frailty models. We implemented them in the context of generalizing Mendelian models of cancer risk, and compared our approaches to others that do not consider heterogeneity across families. Our extensive simulation study demonstrates that when predicting the risk of developing a disease over time conditional on carrier status, accounting for heterogeneity results in a substantial improvement in the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic. On the other hand, the improvement for carriership probability estimation is more limited. We illustrate the utility of the proposed approach through the analysis of BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers in the Washington Ashkenazi Kin-Cohort Study of Breast Cancer.

A reanalysis of cancer mortality in Canadian nuclear workers (1956-1994) based on revised exposure and cohort data.

PubMed

Zablotska, L B; Lane, R S D; Thompson, P A

2014-01-07

A 15-country study of nuclear workers reported significantly increased radiation-related risks of all cancers excluding leukaemia, with Canadian data a major factor behind the pooled results. We analysed mortality (1956-1994) in the updated Canadian cohort and provided revised risk estimates. Employment records were searched to verify and revise exposure data and to restore missing socioeconomic status. Excess relative risks per sievert (ERR/Sv) of recorded radiation dose and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Poisson regression. A significant heterogeneity of the dose-response for solid cancer was identified (P=0.02), with 3088 early (1956-1964) Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) workers having a significant increase (ERR/Sv=7.87, 95% CI: 1.88, 19.5), and no evidence of radiation risk for 42,228 workers employed by three nuclear power plant companies and post-1964 AECL (ERR/Sv=-1.20, 95% CI: <-1.47, 2.39). Radiation risks of leukaemia were negative in early AECL workers and non-significantly increased in other workers. In analyses with separate terms for tritium and gamma doses, there was no evidence of increased risk from tritium exposure. All workers had mortality lower than the general population. Significantly increased risks for early AECL workers are most likely due to incomplete transfer of AECL dose records to the National Dose Registry. Analyses of the remainder of the Canadian nuclear workers (93.2%) provided no evidence of increased risk, but the risk estimate was compatible with estimates that form the basis of radiation protection standards. Study findings suggest that the revised Canadian cohort, with the exclusion of early AECL workers, would likely have an important effect on the 15-country pooled risk estimate of radiation-related risks of all cancer excluding leukaemia by substantially reducing the size of the point estimate and its significance.

A reanalysis of cancer mortality in Canadian nuclear workers (1956–1994) based on revised exposure and cohort data

PubMed Central

Zablotska, L B; Lane, R S D; Thompson, P A

2014-01-01

Background: A 15-country study of nuclear workers reported significantly increased radiation-related risks of all cancers excluding leukaemia, with Canadian data a major factor behind the pooled results. We analysed mortality (1956–1994) in the updated Canadian cohort and provided revised risk estimates. Methods: Employment records were searched to verify and revise exposure data and to restore missing socioeconomic status. Excess relative risks per sievert (ERR/Sv) of recorded radiation dose and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Poisson regression. Results: A significant heterogeneity of the dose–response for solid cancer was identified (P=0.02), with 3088 early (1956–1964) Atomic Energy of Canada Limited (AECL) workers having a significant increase (ERR/Sv=7.87, 95% CI: 1.88, 19.5), and no evidence of radiation risk for 42 228 workers employed by three nuclear power plant companies and post-1964 AECL (ERR/Sv=−1.20, 95% CI: <−1.47, 2.39). Radiation risks of leukaemia were negative in early AECL workers and non-significantly increased in other workers. In analyses with separate terms for tritium and gamma doses, there was no evidence of increased risk from tritium exposure. All workers had mortality lower than the general population. Conclusion: Significantly increased risks for early AECL workers are most likely due to incomplete transfer of AECL dose records to the National Dose Registry. Analyses of the remainder of the Canadian nuclear workers (93.2%) provided no evidence of increased risk, but the risk estimate was compatible with estimates that form the basis of radiation protection standards. Study findings suggest that the revised Canadian cohort, with the exclusion of early AECL workers, would likely have an important effect on the 15-country pooled risk estimate of radiation-related risks of all cancer excluding leukaemia by substantially reducing the size of the point estimate and its significance. PMID:24231946

Assessment of NHTSA’s Report “Relationships Between Fatality Risk, Mass, and Footprint in Model Year 2003-2010 Passenger Cars and LTVs”

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wenzel, Tom

NHTSA recently completed a logistic regression analysis updating its 2003, 2010, and 2012 studies of the relationship between vehicle mass and US fatality risk per vehicle mile traveled (VMT; Kahane 2010, Kahane 2012, Puckett 2016). The new study updates the 2012 analysis using FARS data from 2005 to 2011 for model year 2003 to 2010. Using the updated databases, NHTSA estimates that reducing vehicle mass by 100 pounds while holding footprint fixed would increase fatality risk per VMT by 1.49% for lighter-than-average cars and by 0.50% for heavierthan- average cars, but reduce risk by 0.10% for lighter-than-average light-duty trucks, bymore » 0.71% for heavier-than-average light-duty trucks, and by 0.99% for CUVs/minivans. Using a jack knife method to estimate the statistical uncertainty of these point estimates, NHTSA finds that none of these estimates are statistically significant at the 95% confidence level; however, the 1.49% increase in risk associated with mass reduction in lighter-than-average cars, and the 0.71% and 0.99% decreases in risk associated with mass reduction in heavier-than-average light trucks and CUVs/minivans, are statistically significant at the 90% confidence interval. The effect of mass reduction on risk that NHTSA estimated in 2016 is more beneficial than in its 2012 study, particularly for light trucks and CUVs/minivans. The 2016 NHTSA analysis estimates that reducing vehicle footprint by one square foot while holding mass constant would increase fatality risk per VMT by 0.28% in cars, by 0.38% in light trucks, and by 1.18% in CUVs and minivans.This report replicates the 2016 NHTSA analysis, and reproduces their main results. This report uses the confidence intervals output by the logistic regression models, which are smaller than the intervals NHTSA estimated using a jack-knife technique that accounts for the sampling error in the FARS fatality and state crash data. In addition to reproducing the NHTSA results, this report also examines the NHTSA data in slightly different ways to get a deeper understanding of the relationship between vehicle weight, footprint, and safety. The results of the NHTSA baseline results, and these alternative analyses, are summarized in Table ES.1; statistically significant estimates, based on the confidence intervals output by the logistic regression models, are shown in red in the tables. We found that NHTSA’s reasonable assumption that all vehicles will have ESC installed by 2017 in its baseline regression model slightly increases the estimated increase in risk from mass reduction in cars, but substantially decreases the estimated increase in risk from footprint reduction in all three vehicle types (Alternative 1 in Table ES.1; explained in more detail in Section 2.1 of this report). This is because NHTSA projects ESC to substantially reduce the number of fatalities in rollovers and crashes with stationary objects, and mass reduction appears to reduce risk, while footprint reduction appears to increase risk, in these types of crashes, particularly in cars and CUVs/minivans. A single regression model including all crash types results in slightly different estimates of the relationship between decreasing mass and risk, as shown in Alternative 2 in Table ES.1.« less

Exposure to Experimental Preeclampsia in Mice Enhances the Vascular Response to Future Injury

PubMed Central

Pruthi, Dafina; Khankin, Eliyahu V.; Blanton, Robert M.; Aronovitz, Mark; Burke, Suzanne D.; McCurley, Amy; Karumanchi, S. Ananth; Jaffe, Iris Z.

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading killer of women in developed nations. One gender-specific risk factor is preeclampsia (PE), a syndrome of hypertension and proteinuria that complicates 5% of pregnancies. Although PE resolves after delivery, exposed women are at increased long term risk of premature CVD and mortality. Preexisting CVD risk factors are associated with increased risk of developing PE but whether PE merely uncovers risk or contributes directly to future CVD remains a critical unanswered question. A mouse PE model was used to test the hypothesis that PE causes an enhanced vascular response to future vessel injury. A PE-like state was induced in pregnant CD1 mice by overexpressing soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1), a circulating anti-angiogenic protein that induces hypertension and glomerular disease resembling human PE. Two months post-partum, sFlt-1 levels and blood pressure normalized and cardiac size and function by echocardiography and renal histology were indistinguishable in PE-exposed compared to control mice. Mice were then challenged with unilateral carotid injury. PE-exposed mice had significantly enhanced vascular remodeling with increased vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation (180% increase, P<0.01) and vessel fibrosis (216% increase, P<0.001) compared to control pregnancy. In the contralateral uninjured vessel, there was no difference in remodeling after exposure to PE. These data support a new model in which vessels exposed to PE retain a persistently enhanced vascular response to injury despite resolution of PE after delivery. This new paradigm may contribute to the substantially increased risk of CVD in woman exposed to PE. PMID:25712723

The Impact of a 25 Cent-Per-Drink Alcohol Tax Increase: Who Pays the Tab?

PubMed Central

Daley, James I.; Stahre, Mandy A.; Chaloupka, Frank J.; Naimi, Timothy S.

2013-01-01

Background Excessive alcohol consumption causes 79,000 deaths annually in the U.S., shortening the lives of those who die by approximately 30 years. Although alcohol taxation is an effective measure to reduce excessive consumption and related harms, some argue that increasing alcohol taxes places an unfair economic burden on “responsible” drinkers and socially disadvantaged persons. Purpose To examine the impact of a hypothetical tax increase based on alcohol consumption and socio-demographic characteristics of current drinkers, individually and in aggregate. Methods Data from the 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey was analyzed from 2010–2011 to determine the net financial impact of a hypothetical 25 cent-per-drink tax increase on current drinkers in the U.S. Higher-risk drinkers were defined as those whose past-30 day consumption included binge drinking, heavy drinking, drinking in excess of the U.S. Dietary Guidelines, and alcohol-impaired driving. Results Of current drinkers in the U.S., 50.4% (or approximately 25% of the total U.S. population) were classified as higher-risk drinkers. The tax increase would result in a 9.2% reduction in alcohol consumption, including an 11.4% reduction in heavy drinking. Compared with lower-risk drinkers, higher-risk drinkers paid 4.7 times more in net increased annual per capita taxes, and paid 82.7% of net increased annual aggregate taxes. Lower-risk drinkers paid less than $30 in net increased taxes annually. In aggregate, groups who paid the most in net tax increases included those who were white, male, between the ages of 21 and 50, earning ≥$50,000 per year, employed, and had a college degree. Conclusions A 25 cent-per-drink alcohol tax increase would reduce excessive drinking, and higher-risk drinkers would pay the substantial majority of the net tax increase. PMID:22424251

Colon cancer: a civilization disorder.

PubMed

Watson, Alastair J M; Collins, Paul D

2011-01-01

Colorectal cancer arises in individuals with acquired or inherited genetic predisposition who are exposed to a range of risk factors. Many of these risk factors are associated with affluent Western societies. More than 95% of colorectal cancers are sporadic, arising in individuals without a significant hereditary risk. Geographic variation in the incidence of colorectal cancer is considerable with a higher incidence observed in the West. Environmental factors contribute substantially to this variation. A number of these risk factors are associated with a Western lifestyle and could be considered a product of 'civilization'. Recently, smoking has been recognized as a risk factor. Energy consumption also influences colorectal cancer risk, with obesity increasing risk and exercise reducing risk. However, the strongest contribution to environmental risk for colorectal cancer is dietary. Consumption of fat, alcohol and red meat is associated with an increased risk. Fresh fruit and vegetables and dietary fibre may be protective. Much has been learnt recently about the molecular pathogenesis of colorectal cancer. Colorectal cancer always arises in the context of genomic instability. There is inactivation of the tumour suppressor genes adenomatous polyposis coli, p53, transforming growth factor-β, activation of oncogene pathways including K-ras, and activation of the cyclooxygenase-2, epidermal growth factor receptor and vascular endothelial growth factor pathways. The mechanisms by which some environmental factors modify the mutation risk in these pathways have been described. Copyright © 2011 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Preventable Injury Deaths: A Population-Based Proxy of Child Maltreatment Risk in California

PubMed Central

Putnam-Hornstein, Emily

2012-01-01

Objective This study used group variations in child injury fatality rates to assess racial bias in the population of children identified as victims of maltreatment. Methods Injury fatality and maltreatment data from California were compiled for the years 1998–2007. Death and maltreatment risk ratios (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed by race and age. Rates of excess child injury mortality by race were derived from three different baseline rates of death. Substantiations per excess injury death were calculated. Results Compared with white children, black children faced a risk of substantiated maltreatment that was more than twice as great (black RR: 2.39, 95% CI 2.37, 2.42) and were fatally injured at nearly twice the rate (black RR: 1.89, 95% CI 1.68, 2.12). Per excess death, however, black children had rates of substantiated maltreatment allegations that were equivalent to or lower than the rates for white children. Conclusions These data support claims that, at least in California, black-white racial disparities observed in maltreatment rates reflect real group differences in risk. These data provide no evidence of systematic racial bias in the child protective services' substantiation process. PMID:22379216

Hormone replacement therapy and risk of malignancy.

PubMed

Diamanti-Kandarakis, Evanthia

2004-02-01

The fact that today our concern is oriented towards the risks rather than the benefits of hormone replacement therapy could be the clearest message about our current position. The safety of hormone replacement therapy, an estrogen-progestin combination which has been sympathetic to and supportive of disturbing menopausal symptoms of women, is seriously challenged. Four randomized trials have now reported on the results of hormone replacement therapy in major potentially fatal conditions, in more than 20,000 women studied for about 5 years. The main concern regarding the increased risk of malignancy in healthy postmenopausal women in western countries has been breast cancer. It is estimated to cause an extra case in about six per 1000 users aged 50-59 and 12 per 1000 aged 60-69. Over the same period the estimated risk of endometrial cancer rates are not increased, with a relative risk of 0.76 per 1000 users aged 50-59. Overall, however, the increased incidence of malignancies is greater than any reduction, one per 230 users aged 50-59 and one per 150 aged 60-69. Randomized trials examining other important but rarer malignancies, like ovarian, gall bladder and urinary bladder cancer, are either nonexistent or too small to reliably describe any effects of hormone replacement therapy. Conclusively epidemiological evidence suggests that hormone replacement therapy is associated with a small but substantial increase in breast cancer risk and combined estrogen-progesterone regimens further increase this hazard. Additionally, the evidence from the recent double blind placebo controlled randomized trial on the slight increase in the incidence of adverse cardiovascular events, has turned our orientation away from hormone replacement therapy as a long term therapy in postmenopausal women. In this review, the effort is to approach comprehensively and globally the information on the risks of hormone replacement therapy on several cancer sites.

Psychosocial and organizational risk factors for doctor-certified sick leave: a prospective study of female health and social workers in Norway.

PubMed

Aagestad, Cecilie; Tyssen, Reidar; Johannessen, Håkon A; Gravseth, Hans Magne; Tynes, Tore; Sterud, Tom

2014-09-29

Doctor-certified sick leave differs substantially across sectors, and among health and social workers, in particular, there is an increased risk. Previous studies have shown that work environmental factors contribute to sick leave. Hence, the identification of specific organizational and psychosocial risk factors for long- term sick leave, taking into account potential confounding related to mechanical risk factors such as lifting and awkward body postures, will be of importance in the work of prevention. A randomly drawn population sample of Norwegian residents was interviewed about working conditions in 2009 (n = 12,255; response rate 60.9%). Female health and social care workers (n = 925) were followed in a national registry for subsequent sickness absence during 2010. The outcome of interest was doctor-certified sick leave of 21 days or more (long-term sick leave). Eleven work-related psychosocial and organizational factors were evaluated. In total, 186 persons (20.1%) were classified with subsequent long-term sick leave. After thoroughly adjusting for competing explanatory variables, the most consistent predictors for long-term sick leave were violence and threats of violence (OR = 1.67; 95% CI 1.14-2.45). The estimated population attributable risk for violence and threats of violence was 13%. The present study among female health and social care workers revealed a substantial relationship between self-reported violence and threats of violence and subsequent long- term sick leave.

Gene-environment correlation in the development of adolescent substance abuse: selection effects of child personality and mediation via contextual risk factors.

PubMed

Hicks, Brian M; Johnson, Wendy; Durbin, C Emily; Blonigen, Daniel M; Iacono, William G; McGue, Matt

2013-02-01

We used a longitudinal twin design to examine selection effects of personality traits at age 11 on high-risk environmental contexts at age 14 and the extent to which these contexts mediated risk for substance abuse at age 17. Socialization at age 11 (willingness to follow rules and endorse conventional values) predicted exposure to contextual risk at age 14. Contextual risk partially mediated the effect of socialization on substance abuse, though socialization also had a direct effect. In contrast, boldness at age 11 (social engagement and assurance, thrill seeking, and stress resilience) also predicted substance abuse directly but was unrelated to contextual risk. There was substantial overlap in the genetic and shared environmental influences on socialization and contextual risk, and genetic risk in socialization contributed to substance abuse indirectly via increased exposure to contextual risk. This suggests that active gene-environment correlations related to individual differences in socialization contributed to an early, high-risk developmental trajectory for adolescent substance abuse. In contrast, boldness appeared to index an independent and direct genetic risk factor for adolescent substance abuse.

Male gynecomastia and risk for malignant tumours – a cohort study

PubMed Central

Olsson, H; Bladstrom, A; Alm, P

2002-01-01

Background Men with gynecomastia may suffer from absolute or relative estrogen excess and their risk of different malignancies may be increased. We tested whether men with gynecomastia were at greater risk of developing cancer. Methods A cohort was formed of all the men having a histopathological diagnosis of gynecomastia at the Department of Pathology, University of Lund, following an operation for either uni- or bilateral breast enlargement between 1970–1979. All possible causes of gynecomastia were accepted, such as endogenous or exogenous hormonal exposure as well as cases of unknown etiology. Prior to diagnosis of gynecomastia eight men had a diagnosis of prostate carcinoma, two men a diagnosis of unilateral breast cancer and one had Hodgkin's disease. These patients were included in the analyses. The final cohort of 446 men was matched to the Swedish Cancer Registry, Death Registry and General Population Registry. Results At the end of the follow up in December 1999, the cohort constituted 8375.2 person years of follow-up time. A total of 68 malignancies versus 66.07 expected were observed; SIR = 1.03 (95% CI 0.80–1.30). A significantly increased risk for testicular cancer; SIR = 5.82 (95% CI 1.20–17.00) and squamous cell carcinoma of the skin; SIR = 3.21 (95% CI 1.71–5.48) were noted. The increased risk appeared after 2 years of follow-up. A non-significantly increased risk for esophageal cancer was also seen while no new cases of male breast cancer were observed. However, in the prospective cohort, diagnostic operations for gynecomastia may substantially have reduced this risk Conclusions There is a significant increased risk of testicular cancer and squamous cell carcinoma of the skin in men who have been operated on for gynecomastia. PMID:12383352

Nutrients, Foods, and Colorectal Cancer Prevention

PubMed Central

Song, Mingyang; Garrett, Wendy S.; Chan, Andrew T.

2015-01-01

Diet has an important role in the development of colorectal cancer. In the past few decades, findings from extensive epidemiologic and experimental investigation have linked consumption of several foods and nutrients to the risk of colorectal neoplasia. Calcium, fiber, milk, and whole grain have been associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer, and red meat and processed meat with an increased risk. There is substantial evidence for the potential chemopreventive effects of vitamin D, folate, fruits and vegetables. Nutrients and foods may also interact, as a dietary pattern, to influence colorectal cancer risk. Diet likely influences colorectal carcinogenesis through several interacting mechanisms. These include the direct effects on immune responsiveness and inflammation, and the indirect effects of over-nutrition and obesity—risk factors for colorectal cancer. Emerging evidence also implicates the gut microbiota as an important effector in the relationship between diet and cancer. Dietary modification therefore has the promise of reducing colorectal cancer incidence. PMID:25575572

Characteristics of Japanese inflammatory bowel disease susceptibility loci.

PubMed

Arimura, Yoshiaki; Isshiki, Hiroyuki; Onodera, Kei; Nagaishi, Kanna; Yamashita, Kentaro; Sonoda, Tomoko; Matsumoto, Takayuki; Takahashi, Atsushi; Takazoe, Masakazu; Yamazaki, Keiko; Kubo, Michiaki; Fujimiya, Mineko; Imai, Kohzoh; Shinomura, Yasuhisa

2014-08-01

There are substantial differences in inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) genetics depending on the populations examined. We aimed to identify Japanese population-specific or true culprit susceptibility genes through a meta-analysis of past genetic studies of Japanese IBD. For this study, we reviewed 2,703 articles. The review process consisted of three screening stages: we initially searched for relevant studies and then relevant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Finally, we adjusted them for the meta-analysis. To maximize our chances of analysis, we introduced proxy SNPs during the first stage. To minimize publication bias, no significant SNPs and solitary SNPs without pairs were combined to be reconsidered during the third stage. Additionally, two SNPs were newly genotyped. Finally, we conducted a meta-analysis of 37 published studies in 50 SNPs located at 22 loci corresponding to the total number of 4,853 Crohn's disease (CD), 5,612 ulcerative colitis (UC) patients, and 14,239 healthy controls. We confirmed that the NKX2-3 polymorphism is associated with common susceptibility to IBD and that HLA-DRB1*0450 alleles increase susceptibility to CD but reduce risk for UC while HLA-DRB1*1502 alleles increase susceptibility to UC but reduce CD risk. Moreover, we found individual disease risk loci: TNFSF15 and TNFα to CD and HLA-B*5201, and NFKBIL1 to UC. The genetic risk of HLA was substantially high (odds ratios ranged from 1.54 to 2.69) while that of common susceptibility loci to IBD was modest (odds ratio ranged from 1.13 to 1.24). Results indicate that Japanese IBD susceptibility loci identified by the meta-analysis are closely associated with the HLA regions.

Using animal models to study post-partum psychiatric disorders

PubMed Central

Perani, C V; Slattery, D A

2014-01-01

The post-partum period represents a time during which all maternal organisms undergo substantial plasticity in a wide variety of systems in order to ensure the well-being of the offspring. Although this time is generally associated with increased calmness and decreased stress responses, for a substantial subset of mothers, this period represents a time of particular risk for the onset of psychiatric disorders. Thus, post-partum anxiety, depression and, to a lesser extent, psychosis may develop, and not only affect the well-being of the mother but also place at risk the long-term health of the infant. Although the risk factors for these disorders, as well as normal peripartum-associated adaptations, are well known, the underlying aetiology of post-partum psychiatric disorders remains poorly understood. However, there have been a number of attempts to model these disorders in basic research, which aim to reveal their underlying mechanisms. In the following review, we first discuss known peripartum adaptations and then describe post-partum mood and anxiety disorders, including their risk factors, prevalence and symptoms. Thereafter, we discuss the animal models that have been designed in order to study them and what they have revealed about their aetiology to date. Overall, these studies show that it is feasible to study such complex disorders in animal models, but that more needs to be done in order to increase our knowledge of these severe and debilitating mood and anxiety disorders. Linked Articles This article is part of a themed section on Animal Models in Psychiatry Research. To view the other articles in this section visit http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/bph.2014.171.issue-20 PMID:24527704

Posttraumatic stress disorder in adults: impact, comorbidity, risk factors, and treatment.

PubMed

Sareen, Jitender

2014-09-01

During the last 30 years, there has been a substantial increase in the study of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Several high-profile traumatic events, such as the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the terrorist attacks of September 11 on the World Trade Center, have led to a greater public interest in the risk and protective factors for PTSD. In this In Review paper, I discuss some of the important advances in PTSD. The paper provides a concise review of the evolution of PTSD diagnosis in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, impact of PTSD in the community, an overview of the established risk factors for developing PTSD, and assessment and treatment. Throughout the paper, controversies and clinical implications are discussed.

Screening injured children for physical abuse or neglect in emergency departments: a systematic review.

PubMed

Woodman, J; Lecky, F; Hodes, D; Pitt, M; Taylor, B; Gilbert, Ruth

2010-03-01

Screening markers are used in emergency departments (EDs) to identify children who should be assessed for possible physical abuse and neglect. We conducted three systematic reviews evaluating age, repeat attendance and injury type as markers for physical abuse or neglect in injured children attending EDs. We included studies comparing markers in physically abused or neglected children and non-abused injured children attending ED or hospital. We calculated likelihood ratios (LRs) for age group, repeat attendance and injury type (head injury, bruises, fractures, burns or other). Given the low prevalence of abuse or neglect, we considered that an LR of 10 or more would be clinically useful. All studies were poor quality. Infancy increased the risk of physical abuse or neglect in severely injured or admitted children (LRs 7.7-13.0, 2 studies) but was not strongly associated in children attending the ED (LR 1.5, 95% CI: 0.9, 2.8; one study). Repeat attendance did not substantially increase the risk of abuse or neglect and may be confounded by chronic disease and socio-economic status (LRs 0.8-3.9, 3 studies). One study showed no evidence that the type of injury substantially increased the risk of physical abuse or neglect in severely injured children. There was no evidence that any of the markers (infancy, type of injury, repeated attendance) were sufficiently accurate (i.e. LR >or= 10) to screen injured children in the ED to identify those requiring paediatric assessment for possible physical abuse or neglect. Clinicians should be aware that among injured children at ED a high proportion of abused children will present without these characteristics and a high proportion of non-abused children will present with them. Information about age, injury type and repeat attendances should be interpreted in this context.

Trends in Dietary Supplement Use in a Cohort of Postmenopausal Women From Iowa

PubMed Central

Park, Kyong; Jacobs, David R.

2009-01-01

Although it is widely known that use of dietary supplements is common in the United States, little is known about use patterns among older Americans. The authors examined trends in dietary supplement use and its contribution to total nutrient intake in the Iowa Women's Health Study cohort in 1986 (baseline) and 2004 (follow-up). The proportion of women who reported using dietary supplements increased substantially between baseline (66%) and follow-up (85%). Moreover, a substantial proportion of women reported using multiple dietary supplements, with 27% using 4 or more products in 2004. Dietary supplements contributed substantially to total intake of many nutrients at baseline, and their contribution became relatively greater at follow-up for most nutrients examined. For most nutrients, no decline in intake was observed, as might have been expected in an aging cohort. Rather, intake of many nutrients increased, primarily because of the rising use of dietary supplements. Use of dietary supplements by older individuals is of particular importance because of the potential benefits of maintaining nutrient intake levels despite potentially declining food intake. However, possible risks from obtaining a large proportion of purified nutrients from dietary supplements rather than deriving them from foods should be studied. PMID:19208725

Exposure to airborne amphibole structures and health risks: Libby, Montana.

PubMed

Price, Bertram

2008-10-01

Libby, Montana is the site of a large vermiculite deposit that was mined between 1920 and 1990 to extract vermiculite for commercial applications such as insulation, gardening products, and construction materials. The Libby vermiculite deposit also contains amphibole minerals including tremolite, actinolite, richterite, and winchite. Historically, Libby mine workers experienced high exposures to amphibole structures, and, as a group, have experienced the health consequences of those occupational exposures. It has been suggested that Libby residents also have been and continue to be exposed to amphibole structures released during the vermiculite mining operations and therefore are at increased risk for disease. The Agency for Toxic Substance and Disease Registry (ATSDR) conducted two epidemiological-type studies of residents living in Libby and the surrounding areas to assess these risks. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) collected and analyzed exposure data in Libby and used those data to project risks of asbestos-associated disease for Libby residents. The EPA has placed the Libby Asbestos Site, which includes the mine and the town of Libby, on its National Priority List of hazardous waste sites in need of clean up. This article presents a review of the exposure studies conducted in Libby and an analysis of health risks based on the data collected in those studies. Libby mine workers have experienced elevated levels of asbestos-associated disease as a consequence of their occupational exposures to amphibole structures. Libby residents' exposures typically are substantially lower than mine workers' historical exposures, and the health risk projections for residents are, accordingly, substantially lower.

Trends in Hospital Volume and Operative Mortality for High-Risk Surgery

PubMed Central

Finks, Jonathan F.; Osborne, Nicholas H.; Birkmeyer, John D.

2011-01-01

BACKGROUND There were numerous efforts in the United States during the previous decade to concentrate selected surgical procedures in high-volume hospitals. It remains unknown whether referral patterns for high-risk surgery have changed as a result and how operative mortality has been affected. METHODS We used national Medicare data to study patients undergoing one of eight different cancer and cardiovascular operations from 1999 through 2008. For each procedure, we examined trends in hospital volume and market concentration, defined as the proportion of Medicare patients undergoing surgery in the top decile of hospitals by volume per year. We used regression-based techniques to assess the effects of volume and market concentration on mortality over time, adjusting for case mix. RESULTS Median hospital volumes of four cancer resections (lung, esophagus, pancreas, and bladder) and of repair of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) rose substantially. Depending on the procedure, higher hospital volumes were attributable to an increasing number of cases nationwide, an increasing market concentration, or both. Hospital volumes rose slightly for aortic-valve replacement but fell for coronary-artery bypass grafting and carotid endarterectomy. Operative mortality declined for all eight procedures, ranging from a relative decline of 8% for carotid endarterectomy (1.3% mortality in 1999 and 1.2% in 2008) to 36% for AAA repair (4.4% in 1999 and 2.8% in 2008). Higher hospital volumes explained a large portion of the decline in mortality for pancreatectomy (67% of the decline), cystectomy (37%), and esophagectomy (32%), but not for the other procedures. CONCLUSIONS Operative mortality with high-risk surgery fell substantially during the previous decade. Although increased market concentration and hospital volume have contributed to declining mortality with some high-risk cancer operations, declines in mortality with other procedures are largely attributable to other factors. (Funded by the National Institute on Aging.) PMID:21631325

Occupational risk factors for renal cell carcinoma: agent-specific results from a case-control study in Germany. MURC Study Group. Multicenter urothelial and renal cancer study.

PubMed

Pesch, B; Haerting, J; Ranft, U; Klimpel, A; Oelschlägel, B; Schill, W

2000-12-01

This case-control study was conducted to estimate the renal cell cancer (RCC) risk for exposure to occupation-related agents, besides other suspected risk factors. In a population-based multicentre study, 935 incident RCC cases and 4298 controls matched for region, sex, and age were interviewed between 1991 and 1995 for their occupational history and lifestyle habits. Agent-specific exposure was expert-rated with two job-exposure matrices and a job task-exposure matrix. Conditional logistic regression was used to calculate smoking adjusted odds ratios (OR). Very long exposures in the chemical, rubber, and printing industries were associated with risk for RCC. Males considered as 'substantially exposed to organic solvents' showed a significant excess risk (OR = 1.6, 95% CI : 1.1-2.3). In females substantial exposure to solvents was also a significant risk factor (OR = 2.1, 95% CI : 1.0-4.4). Excess risks were shown for high exposure to cadmium (OR = 1.4, 95% CI : 1.1-1.8, in men, OR = 2.5, 95% CI : 1.2-5.3 in women), for substantial exposure to lead (OR = 1.5, 95% CI : 1.0-2.3, in men, OR = 2.6, 95% CI : 1.2-5.5, in women) and to solder fumes (OR = 1.5, 95% CI : 1.0-2.4, in men). In females, an excess risk for the task 'soldering, welding, milling' was found (OR = 3.0, 95% CI : 1.1-7.8). Exposure to paints, mineral oils, cutting fluids, benzene, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and asbestos showed an association with RCC development. Our results indicate that substantial exposure to metals and solvents may be nephrocarcinogenic. There is evidence for a gender-specific susceptibility of the kidneys.

Increased carotid wall thickness measured by computed tomography is associated with the presence and severity of coronary artery calcium.

PubMed

Nabavi, Vahid; Ahmadi, Naser; Bhatia, Harpreet S; Flores, Ferdinand; Ebrahimi, Ramin; Karlsberg, Ronald P; Budoff, Matthew J

2011-03-01

Previous studies have shown that increase in carotid wall thickness (CWT) is associated with cardiovascular risk factors. However, simultaneous systemic and local involvement of atherosclerosis in subjects with high risk of coronary atherosclerosis is not well studied. This study investigates the relation of carotid subclinical atherosclerosis assessed by CWT with the presence and severity of coronary artery calcium(CAC). One hundred and twenty nine subjects (age of 69±10 years, 72% male) underwent CAC, carotid CT angiography, and their metabolic status was evaluated. CAC was defined as 0, 1-100, 101-400, 401-1000 and 1000+. CWT (mm) was calculated as: [mean of both right and left CT-measured CWT 10-mm below the common carotid bifurcation]. Modest correlation between CWT and CAC was noted (r=0.48, p=0.0001). CWT increased substantially with the severity of CAC from CAC 0 to CAC 1000+ (p<0.05). Increased CWT (1.0 mm+) was more prevalent in subjects with significant CAC (100+) as compared to CAC 0 (44.7% vs. 3.3%, p<0.05). Increase in CWT was associated with increased rates of metabolic syndrome and diabetes mellitus. After adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors, the risk of metabolic syndrome and DM was 1.7 and 2.3 respectively for each standard deviation (SD) increase in CWT. Similarly, the risk for each SD increase in CWT increased with severity of CAC as compared to CAC 0 (RR:CAC 1-100:1.2, CAC 101-400:1.5, CAC 400-1000:2.1, and CAC 1000+:3.4, respectively). Increased CWT is associated with the presence and severity of CAC, metabolic syndrome and DM independent of conventional cardiovascular risk factors; highlighting the important role of comprehensive carotid and coronary atherosclerotic assessment to identify at-risk individuals. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of dietary selenium and moisture on the physical activity and thyroid axis of cats

Treesearch

S. E. Hooper; R. Backus; S. Amelon

2018-01-01

Consumption of canned cat food is considered a risk factor for the development of feline hyperthyroidism. Because selenium and water are substantially higher in canned diets compared to dry diets, objectives of this study were to determine whether increased dietary selenium or water alters the function of the hypothalamic–pituitary– thyroid axis and leads to an...

Private sector health reform in South Africa.

PubMed

Van Den Heever, A M

1998-06-01

This paper discusses some of the trends, debates and policy proposals in relation to the financing of the private health sector in South Africa. The public and private sectors in South Africa are of equivalent size in terms of overall expenditure, but cover substantially different population sizes. Within this context the government has reached the unavoidable conclusion that the private sector has to play some role in ensuring that equity, access and efficiency objectives are achieved for the health system as a whole. However, the private sector is some way off from taking on this responsibility. Substantial increases in per capita costs over the past 15 years, coupled with a degree of deregulation by the former government, have resulted in increasing instability and volatility. The development of a very competitive medical scheme (health insurance) market reinforced by intermediaries with commercial interests has accelerated trends toward excluding high health risks from cover. The approach taken by the government has been to define a new environment which leaves the market open for extensive competition, but removes from schemes the ability to compete by discriminating against high health risks. The only alternatives left to the private market, policy makers hope, will be to go out of business, or to survive through productivity improvements.

The intersection between asthma and acute chest syndrome in children with sickle-cell anaemia

PubMed Central

DeBaun, Michael R; Strunk, Robert C

2016-01-01

Acute chest syndrome is a frequent cause of acute lung disease in children with sickle-cell disease. Asthma is common in children with sickle-cell disease and is associated with increased incidence of vaso-occlusive pain events, acute chest syndrome episodes, and earlier death. Risk factors for asthma exacerbation and an acute chest syndrome episode are similar, and both can present with shortness of breath, chest pain, cough, and wheezing. Despite overlapping risk factors and symptoms, an acute exacerbation of asthma or an episode of acute chest syndrome are two distinct entities that need disease-specific management strategies. Although understanding has increased about asthma as a comorbidity in sickle-cell disease and its effects on morbidity, substantial gaps remain in knowledge about best management. PMID:27353685

Heat stress risk in India under the observed and projected 1.5 and 2.0ºC warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mishra, V.; Kumar, R.; Mukherjee, S.; AghaKouchak, A.; Stone, D. A.; Huber, M.

2017-12-01

India has witnessed some of the unprecedented heat waves that caused substantial mortality. Despite the implications of heat stress on labor efficiency, human health, and mortality, the risk of heat stress under the warming climate is largely unexplored in India. Here, using the observations, reanalysis products, and data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs), we show that the risk of heatwaves and heat stress has increased in India during the period of 1979-2017. Both heat waves and heat stress events have become more frequent in the majority of India except the Indo-Gangetic Plain region. In the Indo-Gangetic Plain region, the heat stress has increased while the frequency of heat waves has declined during the observed record of 1979-2017. This contrasting response of heat waves and heat stress in the Gangetic Plain region can be attributed to irrigation and atmospheric aerosols. The risk of heat stress is projected to increase manifold in the majority of India and in the Indo-Gangetic Plain under the 1.5 and 2.0ºC warming scenarios.

Sleep and youth suicidal behavior: a neglected field.

PubMed

Liu, Xianchen; Buysse, Daniel J

2006-05-01

Sleep undergoes substantial changes during adolescence and suicide risk begins to increase during this period as well. This review focuses on recent literature on the relationship between sleep and suicidal behavior and proposes directions for future research. Adolescent sleep is characterized by widespread sleep restriction, irregular sleep schedules, daytime sleepiness, and elevated risk for sleep disturbances. More research on adolescent sleep and psychosocial impairment, psychiatric disorders, and suicidal behavior has been conducted. Suicidal psychiatric patients had more sleep disturbances including insomnia, hypersomnia, or nightmares than nonsuicidal patients. Shorter rapid eye movement latency and increased rapid eye movement activity have been noted to be a marker of suicidality in psychiatric patients. Epidemiological studies have demonstrated that insomnia, nightmares, and sleep insufficiency are associated with elevated risk for suicide. Although the link between insomnia and suicidal behavior appears to be mediated by depression, existing data suggest an independent predictive role of nightmares in future suicidal behavior. Sleep loss or disturbances are likely to signal an increased risk of future suicidal action in adolescents. Large-scale prospective studies and neurobiological studies are needed for a better understanding of the complex relationship between sleep, psychopathology, and youth suicidal behavior.

Confounding of the association between radiation exposure from CT scans and risk of leukemia and brain tumors by cancer susceptibility syndromes.

PubMed

Meulepas, Johanna M; Ronckers, Cécile M; Merks, Johannes; Weijerman, Michel E; Lubin, Jay H; Hauptmann, Michael

2016-12-01

Recent studies linking radiation exposure from pediatric computed tomography (CT) to increased risks of leukemia and brain tumors lacked data to control for cancer susceptibility syndromes (CSS). These syndromes might be confounders because they are associated with an increased cancer risk and may increase the likelihood of pediatric CT scans. We identify CSS predisposing to leukemia and brain tumors through a systematic literature search and summarize prevalence and risk. Since empirical evidence is lacking in published literature on patterns of CT use for most types of CSS, we estimate confounding bias of relative risks (RR) for categories of radiation exposure based on expert opinion about patterns of CT scans among CSS patients. We estimate that radiation-related RRs for leukemia are not meaningfully confounded by Down syndrome, Noonan syndrome and other CSS. Moreover, tuberous sclerosis complex, von Hippel-Lindau disease, neurofibromatosis type 1 and other CSS do not meaningfully confound RRs for brain tumors. Empirical data on the use of CT scans among CSS patients is urgently needed. Our assessment indicates that associations with radiation exposure from pediatric CT scans and leukemia or brain tumors reported in previous studies are unlikely to be substantially confounded by unmeasured CSS.

Age at menopause: imputing age at menopause for women with a hysterectomy with application to risk of postmenopausal breast cancer

PubMed Central

Rosner, Bernard; Colditz, Graham A.

2011-01-01

Purpose Age at menopause, a major marker in the reproductive life, may bias results for evaluation of breast cancer risk after menopause. Methods We follow 38,948 premenopausal women in 1980 and identify 2,586 who reported hysterectomy without bilateral oophorectomy, and 31,626 who reported natural menopause during 22 years of follow-up. We evaluate risk factors for natural menopause, impute age at natural menopause for women reporting hysterectomy without bilateral oophorectomy and estimate the hazard of reaching natural menopause in the next 2 years. We apply this imputed age at menopause to both increase sample size and to evaluate the relation between postmenopausal exposures and risk of breast cancer. Results Age, cigarette smoking, age at menarche, pregnancy history, body mass index, history of benign breast disease, and history of breast cancer were each significantly related to age at natural menopause; duration of oral contraceptive use and family history of breast cancer were not. The imputation increased sample size substantially and although some risk factors after menopause were weaker in the expanded model (height, and alcohol use), use of hormone therapy is less biased. Conclusions Imputing age at menopause increases sample size, broadens generalizability making it applicable to women with hysterectomy, and reduces bias. PMID:21441037

Recipient Risk Factors for Graft Failure in the Cornea Donor Study

PubMed Central

Sugar, Alan; Tanner, Jean Paul; Dontchev, Mariya; Tennant, Brad; Schultze, Robert L.; Dunn, Steven P.; Lindquist, Thomas D.; Gal, Robin L.; Beck, Roy W.; Kollman, Craig; Mannis, Mark J.; Holland, Edward J.

2009-01-01

Purpose Identify recipient factors which may be related to risk of corneal graft failure Design Multi-center prospective, double-masked, controlled clinical trial Participants 1090 subjects undergoing corneal transplantation for a moderate risk condition (principally Fuchs’ dystrophy or pseudophakic corneal edema) Methods Donor corneas were assigned using a random approach without respect to recipient factors, and surgeons were masked to information about the donor cornea including donor age. Surgery and post-operative care were performed according to the surgeons’ usual routines and subjects were followed for five years. Baseline factors were evaluated for their association with graft failure. Main Outcome Measures Graft failure, defined as a regraft or a cloudy cornea that was sufficiently opaque to compromise vision for a minimum of three consecutive months. Results Preoperative diagnosis of pseudophakic/aphakic corneal edema increased graft failure risk approximately 4-fold compared with Fuchs’ dystrophy (27% vs. 7%). Prior glaucoma surgery with preoperative glaucoma medication use substantially increased the graft failure rate. Factors not strongly associated with graft failure included age, gender, diabetes, smoking, and graft size. Conclusion The risk of graft failure is significantly increased in eyes with pseudophakic or aphakic corneal edema compared with Fuchs’ dystrophy, independent of lens status, and in eyes with a history of glaucoma. PMID:19395036

Development of Organ-Specific Donor Risk Indices

PubMed Central

Akkina, Sanjeev K.; Asrani, Sumeet K.; Peng, Yi; Stock, Peter; Kim, Ray; Israni, Ajay K.

2012-01-01

Due to the shortage of deceased donor organs, transplant centers accept organs from marginal deceased donors, including older donors. Organ-specific donor risk indices have been developed to predict graft survival using various combinations of donor and recipient characteristics. We will review the kidney donor risk index (KDRI) and liver donor risk index (LDRI) and compare and contrast their strengths, limitations, and potential uses. The Kidney Donor Risk Index has a potential role in developing new kidney allocation algorithms. The Liver Donor Risk Index allows for greater appreciation of the importance of donor factors, particularly for hepatitis C-positive recipients; as the donor risk index increases, rates of allograft and patient survival among these recipients decrease disproportionately. Use of livers with high donor risk index is associated with increased hospital costs independent of recipient risk factors, and transplanting livers with high donor risk index into patients with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores < 15 is associated with lower allograft survival; use of the Liver Donor Risk Index has limited this practice. Significant regional variation in donor quality, as measured by the Liver Donor Risk Index, remains in the United States. We also review other potential indices for liver transplant, including donor-recipient matching and the retransplant donor risk index. While substantial progress has been made in developing donor risk indices to objectively assess donor variables that affect transplant outcomes, continued efforts are warranted to improve these indices to enhance organ allocation policies and optimize allograft survival. PMID:22287036

Antidepressant medications and osteoporosis.

PubMed

Rizzoli, R; Cooper, C; Reginster, J-Y; Abrahamsen, B; Adachi, J D; Brandi, M L; Bruyère, O; Compston, J; Ducy, P; Ferrari, S; Harvey, N C; Kanis, J A; Karsenty, G; Laslop, A; Rabenda, V; Vestergaard, P

2012-09-01

Use of antidepressant medications that act on the serotonin system has been linked to detrimental impacts on bone mineral density (BMD), and to osteoporosis. This article reviews current evidence for such effects, and identifies themes for future research. Serotonin receptors are found in all major types of bone cell (osteoblasts, osteocytes, and osteoclasts), indicating an important role of the neuroendocrine system in bone. Observational studies indicate a complex relationship between depression, antidepressants, and fracture. First, the presence of depression itself increases fracture risk, in relation with decreased BMD and an increase in falls. A range of aspects of depression may operate, including behavioral factors (e.g., smoking and nutrition), biological changes, and confounders (e.g., comorbidities and concomitant medications). A substantial proportion of depressed patients receive antidepressants, mostly selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs). Some of these have been linked to decreased BMD (SSRIs) and increased fracture risk (SSRIs and tricyclic agents). Current use of SSRIs and tricyclics increases fracture risk by as much as twofold versus nonusers, even after adjustment for potential confounders. While there is a dose-response relationship for SSRIs, the effect does not appear to be homogeneous across the whole class of drugs and may be linked to affinity for the serotonin transporter system. The increase in risk is the greatest in the early stages of treatment, with a dramatic increase after initiation, reaching a peak within 1 month for tricyclics and 8 months for SSRIs. Treatment-associated increased risk diminishes towards baseline in the year following discontinuation. The body of evidence suggests that SSRIs should be considered in the list of medications that are risk factors for osteoporotic fractures. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Unconsented HIV Testing in Cases of Occupational Exposure: Ethics, Law, and Policy

PubMed Central

Cowan, Ethan; Macklin, Ruth

2012-01-01

Post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) has substantially reduced the risk of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) after an occupational exposure; nevertheless, exposure to HIV remains a concern for emergency department providers. According to published guidelines, PEP should be taken only when source patients are HIV positive or have risk factors for HIV. Initiating PEP when source patients are uninfected puts exposed persons at risk from taking toxic drugs with no compensating benefit. Forgoing PEP if the source is infected results in increased risk of acquiring HIV. What should be done if source patients refuse HIV testing? Is it justifiable to test the blood of these patients over their autonomous objection? The authors review current law and policy and perform an ethical analysis to determine if laws permitting unconsented testing in cases of occupational exposure can be ethically justified. PMID:22994417

Daily average temperature and mortality among the elderly: a meta-analysis and systematic review of epidemiological evidence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Yu, Weiwei; Mengersen, Kerrie; Wang, Xiaoyu; Ye, Xiaofang; Guo, Yuming; Pan, Xiaochuan; Tong, Shilu

2012-07-01

The impact of climate change on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly has been of increasing concern. However, to date there has been no meta-analysis of current literature relating to the effects of temperature fluctuations upon mortality amongst the elderly. We synthesised risk estimates of the overall impact of daily mean temperature on elderly mortality across different continents. A comprehensive literature search was conducted using MEDLINE and PubMed to identify papers published up to December 2010. Selection criteria including suitable temperature indicators, endpoints, study-designs and identification of threshold were used. A two-stage Bayesian hierarchical model was performed to summarise the percent increase in mortality with a 1°C temperature increase (or decrease) with 95% confidence intervals in hot (or cold) days, with lagged effects also measured. Fifteen studies met the eligibility criteria and almost 13 million elderly deaths were included in this meta-analysis. In total, there was a 2-5% increase for a 1°C increment during hot temperature intervals, and a 1-2 % increase in all-cause mortality for a 1°C decrease during cold temperature intervals. Lags of up to 9 days in exposure to cold temperature intervals were substantially associated with all-cause mortality, but no substantial lagged effects were observed for hot intervals. Thus, both hot and cold temperatures substantially increased mortality among the elderly, but the magnitude of heat-related effects seemed to be larger than that of cold effects within a global context.

Climate warming enhances snow avalanche risk in the Western Himalayas

PubMed Central

Ballesteros-Cánovas, J. A.; Trappmann, D.; Madrigal-González, J.; Eckert, N.; Stoffel, M.

2018-01-01

Ongoing climate warming has been demonstrated to impact the cryosphere in the Indian Himalayas, with substantial consequences for the risk of disasters, human well-being, and terrestrial ecosystems. Here, we present evidence that the warming observed in recent decades has been accompanied by increased snow avalanche frequency in the Western Indian Himalayas. Using dendrogeomorphic techniques, we reconstruct the longest time series (150 y) of the occurrence and runout distances of snow avalanches that is currently available for the Himalayas. We apply a generalized linear autoregressive moving average model to demonstrate linkages between climate warming and the observed increase in the incidence of snow avalanches. Warming air temperatures in winter and early spring have indeed favored the wetting of snow and the formation of wet snow avalanches, which are now able to reach down to subalpine slopes, where they have high potential to cause damage. These findings contradict the intuitive notion that warming results in less snow, and thus lower avalanche activity, and have major implications for the Western Himalayan region, an area where human pressure is constantly increasing. Specifically, increasing traffic on a steadily expanding road network is calling for an immediate design of risk mitigation strategies and disaster risk policies to enhance climate change adaption in the wider study region. PMID:29535224

Women and HIV Infection: The Makings of a Midlife Crisis

PubMed Central

Santoro, Nanette; Fan, Maria; Maslow, BatSheva; Schoenbaum, Ellie

2009-01-01

With the advent of highly active antiretroviral agents, women with HIV infection can expect to live longer than ever before. This increased survival has led to concerns about the long-term implications of HIV disease and its treatment. Women with HIV infection appear to lose ovarian function earlier in life than women without HIV infection. They also have evidence of reduced bone mineral density and increased cardiovascular risk. Moreover, many of these increases in risk factors are present even prior to the menopausal transition. All of these risks, present at mid-life, augur poorly for future health and describe a substantially increased burden of disease likely to accrue to HIV infected women as they enter older age groups. Further compounding the adversity faced by the HIV infected, the demographics of women most vulnerable to this disease include adverse social and economic influences, both of which worsen their long term prognosis. For example, drug use and poverty are related to more severe menopausal symptoms and chronic stress is related to worse psychological and cardiovascular risk. An understanding of how menopause interacts with HIV infection is therefore most important to alert the clinician to perform surveillance for common health problems in postmenopausal women, and to address directly and appropriately symptomatology during the menopausal transition. PMID:19783389

Epidemiological research on radiation-induced cancer in atomic bomb survivors

PubMed Central

Ozasa, Kotaro

2016-01-01

The late effects of exposure to atomic bomb radiation on cancer occurrence have been evaluated by epidemiological studies on three cohorts: a cohort of atomic bomb survivors (Life Span Study; LSS), survivors exposed in utero, and children of atomic bomb survivors (F1). The risk of leukemia among the survivors increased remarkably in the early period after the bombings, especially among children. Increased risks of solid cancers have been evident since around 10 years after the bombings and are still present today. The LSS has clarified the dose–response relationships of radiation exposure and risk of various cancers, taking into account important risk modifiers such as sex, age at exposure, and attained age. Confounding by conventional risk factors including lifestyle differences is not considered substantial because people were non-selectively exposed to the atomic bomb radiation. Uncertainty in risk estimates at low-dose levels is thought to be derived from various sources, including different estimates of risk at background levels, uncertainty in dose estimates, residual confounding and interaction, strong risk factors, and exposure to residual radiation and/or medical radiation. The risk of cancer in subjects exposed in utero is similar to that in LSS subjects who were exposed in childhood. Regarding hereditary effects of radiation exposure, no increased risk of cancers associated with parental exposure to radiation have been observed in the F1 cohort to date. In addition to biological and pathogenetic interpretations of the present results, epidemiological investigations using advanced technology should be used to further analyze these cohorts. PMID:26976124

Associations of Proposed Relative-Risk Warning Labels for Snus With Perceptions and Behavioral Intentions Among Tobacco Users and Nonusers.

PubMed

Rodu, Brad; Plurphanswat, Nantaporn; Hughes, John R; Fagerström, Karl

2016-05-01

The US Food and Drug Administration can require changes in warning statements for modified risk tobacco products. We report an independent analysis of a consumer perception survey sponsored by Swedish Match as part of a Modified Risk Tobacco Product application to change warning labels for Swedish snus products. The survey exposed each of 4324 daily exclusive cigarette smokers, 1033 daily smokeless tobacco users, 1205 daily other tobacco users, 726 former users, and 5915 triers/never users to one of four current warnings and two proposed relative-risk labels (No tobacco product is safe, but this product presents lower risks to health than cigarettes, or No tobacco product is safe, but this product presents substantially lower risks to health than cigarettes) for snus. Descriptive and logistic regression analyses examined four outcomes: believability, harmfulness, motivation to use, and intention to buy snus. Compared with the current not-safe-alternative warning, adult tobacco users who viewed the proposed labels perceived them as less believable, perceived snus as less harmful and were more likely to use and buy snus. The proposed labels had no impact on former smokers' likelihood to use and buy snus; triers/never users viewing the substantially lower risk label were more likely to buy snus. Tobacco users viewing the proposed labels perceived snus as less harmful than cigarettes and may be more likely to use and buy snus. If labeling changes lead to increased snus use and cigarette reduction or abstinence, public health may benefit. If the opposite occurs, public health could suffer. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Comparative risk analysis of dioxins in fish and fine particles from heavy-duty vehicles.

PubMed

Leino, Olli; Tainio, Marko; Tuomisto, Jouni T

2008-02-01

Dioxins and airborne fine particles are both environmental health problems that have been the subject of active public debate. Knowledge on fine particles has increased substantially during the last 10 years, and even the current, lowered levels in the Europe and in the United States appear to be a major public health problem. On the other hand, dioxins are ubiquitous persistent contaminants, some being carcinogens at high doses, and therefore of great concern. Our aim was to (a) quantitatively analyze the two pollutant health risks and (b) study the changes in risk in view of the current and forthcoming EU legislations on pollutants. We performed a comparative risk assessment for both pollutants in the Helsinki metropolitan area (Finland) and estimated the health effects with several scenarios. For primary fine particles: a comparison between the present emission situation for heavy-duty vehicles and the new fine particle emission standards set by the EU. For dioxins: an EU directive that regulates commercial fishing of Baltic salmon and herring that exceed the dioxin concentration limit set for fish meat, and a derogation (= exemption) from the directive for these two species. Both of these two decisions are very topical issues and this study estimates the expected changes in health effects due to these regulations. It was found that the estimated fine particle risk clearly outweighed the estimated dioxin risk. A substantial improvement to public health could be achieved by initiating reductions in emission standards; about 30 avoided premature deaths annually in the study area. In addition, the benefits of fish consumption due to omega-3 exposure were notably higher than the potential dioxin cancer risk. Both regulations were instigated as ways of promoting public health.

The joint impact of cognitive performance in adolescence and familial cognitive aptitude on risk for major psychiatric disorders: a delineation of four potential pathways to illness.

PubMed

Kendler, K S; Ohlsson, H; Keefe, R S E; Sundquist, K; Sundquist, J

2018-04-01

How do joint measures of premorbid cognitive ability and familial cognitive aptitude (FCA) reflect risk for a diversity of psychiatric and substance use disorders? To address this question, we examined, using Cox models, the predictive effects of school achievement (SA) measured at age 16 and FCA-assessed from SA in siblings and cousins, and educational attainment in parents-on risk for 12 major psychiatric syndromes in 1 140 608 Swedes born 1972-1990. Four developmental patterns emerged. In the first, risk was predicted jointly by low levels of SA and high levels of FCA-that is a level of SA lower than would be predicted from the FCA. This pattern was strongest in autism spectrum disorders and schizophrenia, and weakest in bipolar illness. In these disorders, a pathologic process seems to have caused cognitive functioning to fall substantially short of familial potential. In the second pattern, seen in the internalizing conditions of major depression and anxiety disorders, risk was associated with low SA but was unrelated to FCA. Externalizing disorders-drug abuse and alcohol use disorders-demonstrated the third pattern, in which risk was predicted jointly by low SA and low FCA. The fourth pattern, seen in eating disorders, was directly opposite of that observed in externalizing disorders with risk associated with high SA and high FCA. When measured together, adolescent cognitive ability and FCA identified four developmental patterns leading to diverse psychiatric disorders. The value of cognitive assessments in psychiatric research can be substantially increased by also evaluating familial cognitive potential.

Nitrate in aquifers beneath agricultural systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkart, M.R.; Stoner, J.D.; ,

2007-01-01

Research from several regions of the world provides spatially anecdotal evidence to hypothesize which hydrologic and agricultural factors contribute to groundwater vulnerability to nitrate contamination. Analysis of nationally consistent measurements from the U.S. Geological Survey's NAWQA program confirms these hypotheses for a substantial range of agricultural systems. Shallow unconfined aquifers are most susceptible to nitrate contamination associated with agricultural systems. Alluvial and other unconsolidated aquifers are the most vulnerable and also shallow carbonate aquifers that provide a substantial but smaller contamination risk. Where any of these aquifers are overlain by permeable soils the risk of contamination is larger. Irrigated systems can compound this vulnerability by increasing leaching facilitated by additional recharge and additional nutrient applications. The system of corn, soybean, and hogs produced significantly larger concentrations of groundwater nitrate than all other agricultural systems because this system imports the largest amount of N-fertilizer per unit production area. Mean nitrate under dairy, poultry, horticulture, and cattle and grains systems were similar. If trends in the relation between increased fertilizer use and groundwater nitrate in the United States are repeated in other regions of the world, Asia may experience increasing problems because of recent increases in fertilizer use. Groundwater monitoring in Western and Eastern Europe as well as Russia over the next decade may provide data to determine if the trend in increased nitrate contamination can be reversed. If the concentrated livestock trend in the United States is global, it may be accompanied by increasing nitrogen contamination in groundwater. Concentrated livestock provide both point sources in the confinement area and intense non-point sources as fields close to facilities are used for manure disposal. Regions where irrigated cropland is expanding, such as in Asia, may experience the greatest impact of this practice on groundwater nitrate. ?? USDA 2007.

Nitrate in aquifers beneath agricultural systems

USGS Publications Warehouse

Burkart, M.R.; Stoner, J.D.

2002-01-01

Research from several regions of the world provides spatially anecdotal evidence to hypothesize which hydrologic and agricultural factors contribute to groundwater vulnerability to nitrate contamination. Analysis of nationally consistent measurements from the U.S. Geological Survey's NAWOA program confirms these hypotheses for a substantial range of agricultural systems. Shallow unconfined aquifers are most susceptible to nitrate contamination associated with agricultural systems. Alluvial and other unconsolidated aquifers are the most vulnerable and shallow carbonate aquifers provide a substantial but smaller contamination risk. Where any of these aquifers are overlain by permeable soils the risk of contamination is larger. Irrigated systems can compound this vulnerability by increasing leaching facilitated by additional recharge and additional nutrient applications. The agricultural system of corn, soybeans, and hogs produced significantly larger concentrations of groundwater nitrate than all other agricultural systems, although mean nitrate concentrations in counties with dairy, poultry, cattle and grains, and horticulture systems were similar. If trends in the relation between increased fertilizer use and groundwater nitrate in the United States are repeated in other regions of the world, Asia may experience increasing problems because of recent increases in fertilizer use. Groundwater monitoring in Western and Eastern Europe as well as Russia over the next decade may provide data to determine if the trend in increased nitrate contamination can be reversed. If the concentrated livestock trend in the United States is global, it may be accompanied by increasing nitrogen contamination in groundwater. Concentrated livestock provide both point sources in the confinement area and intense non-point sources as fields close to facilities are used for manure disposal. Regions where irrigated cropland is expanding, such as in Asia, may experience the greatest impact of this practice.

The effect of ethnicity and genetic ancestry on the epidemiology, clinical features and outcome of systemic lupus erythematosus.

PubMed

Lewis, Myles J; Jawad, Ali S

2017-04-01

In this in-depth review, we examine the worldwide epidemiology of SLE and summarize current knowledge on the influence of race/ethnicity on clinical manifestations, disease activity, damage accumulation and outcome in SLE. Susceptibility to SLE has a strong genetic component, and trans-ancestral genetic studies have revealed a substantial commonality of shared genetic risk variants across different genetic ancestries that predispose to the development of SLE. The highest increased risk of developing SLE is observed in black individuals (incidence 5- to 9-fold increased, prevalence 2- to 3-fold increased), with an increased risk also observed in South Asians, East Asians and other non-white groups, compared with white individuals. Black, East Asian, South Asian and Hispanic individuals with SLE tend to develop more severe disease with a greater number of manifestations and accumulate damage from lupus more rapidly. Increased genetic risk burden in these populations, associated with increased autoantibody reactivity in non-white individuals with SLE, may explain the more severe lupus phenotype. Even after taking into account socio-economic factors, race/ethnicity remains a key determinant of poor outcome, such as end-stage renal failure and mortality, in SLE. Community measures to expedite diagnosis through increased awareness in at-risk racial/ethnic populations and ethnically personalized treatment algorithms may help in future to improve long-term outcomes in SLE. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Risk and treatment effect heterogeneity: re-analysis of individual participant data from 32 large clinical trials

PubMed Central

Kent, David M; Nelson, Jason; Dahabreh, Issa J; Rothwell, Peter M; Altman, Douglas G; Hayward, Rodney A

2016-01-01

Abstract Background: Risk of the outcome is a mathematical determinant of the absolute treatment benefit of an intervention, yet this can vary substantially within a trial population, complicating the interpretation of trial results. Methods: We developed risk models using Cox or logistic regression on a set of large publicly available randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We evaluated risk heterogeneity using the extreme quartile risk ratio (EQRR, the ratio of outcome rates in the lowest risk quartile to that in the highest) and skewness using the median to mean risk ratio (MMRR, the ratio of risk in the median risk patient to the average). We also examined heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE) across risk strata. Results: We describe 39 analyses using data from 32 large trials, with event rates across studies ranging from 3% to 63% (median = 15%, 25th–75th percentile = 9–29%). C-statistics of risk models ranged from 0.59 to 0.89 (median = 0.70, 25th–75th percentile = 0.65–0.71). The EQRR ranged from 1.8 to 50.7 (median = 4.3, 25th–75th percentile = 3.0–6.1). The MMRR ranged from 0.4 to 1.0 (median = 0.86, 25th–75th percentile = 0.80–0.92). EQRRs were predictably higher and MMRRs predictably lower as the c-statistic increased or the overall outcome incidence decreased. Among 18 comparisons with a significant overall treatment effect, there was a significant interaction between treatment and baseline risk on the proportional scale in only one. The difference in the absolute risk reduction between extreme risk quartiles ranged from −3.2 to 28.3% (median = 5.1%; 25th–75th percentile = 0.3–10.9). Conclusions: There is typically substantial variation in outcome risk in clinical trials, commonly leading to clinically significant differences in absolute treatment effects. Most patients have outcome risks lower than the trial average reflected in the summary result. Risk-stratified trial analyses are feasible and may be clinically informative, particularly when the outcome is predictable and uncommon. PMID:27375287

Impact of family planning programs in reducing high-risk births due to younger and older maternal age, short birth intervals, and high parity.

PubMed

Brown, Win; Ahmed, Saifuddin; Roche, Neil; Sonneveldt, Emily; Darmstadt, Gary L

2015-08-01

Several studies show that maternal and neonatal/infant mortality risks increase with younger and older maternal age (<18 and >34 years), high parity (birth order >3), and short birth intervals (<24 months). Family planning programs are widely viewed as having contributed to substantial maternal and neonatal mortality decline through contraceptive use--both by reducing unwanted births and by reducing the burden of these high-risk births. However, beyond averting births, the empirical evidence for the role of family planning in reducing high-risk births at population level is limited. We examined data from 205 Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), conducted between 1985 and 2013, to describe the trends in high-risk births and their association with the pace of progress in modern contraceptive prevalence rate (yearly increase in rate of MCPR) in 57 developing countries. Using Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition technique, we then examine the contributions of family planning program, economic development (GDP per capita), and educational improvement (secondary school completion rate) on the progress of MCPR in order to link the net contribution of family planning program to the reduction of high-risk births mediated through contraceptive use. Countries that had the fastest progress in improving MCPR experienced the greatest declines in high-risk births due to short birth intervals (<24 months), high parity births (birth order >3), and older maternal age (>35 years). Births among younger women <18 years, however, did not decline significantly during this period. The decomposition analysis suggests that 63% of the increase in MCPR was due to family planning program efforts, 21% due to economic development, and 17% due to social advancement through women's education. Improvement in MCPR, predominately due to family planning programs, is a major driver of the decline in the burden of high-risk births due to high parity, shorter birth intervals, and older maternal age in developing countries. The lack of progress in the decline of births in younger women <18 years of age underscores the need for more attention to ensure that quality contraceptive methods are available to adolescent women in order to delay first births. This study substantiates the significance of family planning programming as a major health intervention for preventing high-risk births and associated maternal and child mortality, but it highlights the need for concerted efforts to strengthen service provision for adolescents. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

CARING (CAncer Risk and INsulin analoGues): The Association of Diabetes Mellitus and Cancer Risk with Focus on Possible Determinants - A Systematic Review and a Meta-Analysis

PubMed Central

Starup-Linde, Jakob; Karlstad, Øystein; Eriksen, Stine Aistrup; Vestergaard, Peter; Bronsveld, Heleen K.; de Vries, Frank; Andersen, Morten; Auvinen, Anssi; Haukka, Jari; Hjellvik, Vidar; Bazelier, Marloes T.; de Boer, Anthonius; Furu, Kari; De Bruin, Marie L.

2013-01-01

Background: Patients suffering from diabetes mellitus (DM) may experience an increased risk of cancer; however, it is not certain whether this effect is due to diabetes per se. Objective: To examine the association between DM and cancers by a systematic review and meta-analysis according to the PRISMA guidelines. Data Sources: The systematic literature search includes Medline at PubMed, Embase, Cinahl, Bibliotek.dk, Cochrane library, Web of Science and SveMed+ with the search terms: “Diabetes mellitus”, “Neoplasms”, and “Risk of cancer”. Study Eligibility Criteria: The included studies compared the risk of cancer in diabetic patients versus non-diabetic patients. All types of observational study designs were included. Results: Diabetes patients were at a substantially increased risk of liver (RR=2.1), and pancreas (RR=2.2) cancer. Modestly elevated significant risks were also found for ovary (RR=1.2), breast (RR=1.1), cervix (RR=1.3), endometrial (RR=1.4), several digestive tract (RR=1.1-1.5), kidney (RR=1.4), and bladder cancer (RR=1.1). The findings were similar for men and women, and unrelated to study design. Meta-regression analyses showed limited effect modification of body mass index, and possible effect modification of age, gender, with some influence of study characteristics (population source, cancer- and diabetes ascertainment). Limitations: Publication bias seemed to be present. Only published data were used in the analyses. Conclusions: The systematic review and meta-analysis confirm the previous results of increased cancer risk in diabetes and extend this to additional cancer sites. Physicians in contact with patients with diabetes should be aware that diabetes patients are at an increased risk of cancer. PMID:24215312

CARING (CAncer Risk and INsulin analoGues): the association of diabetes mellitus and cancer risk with focus on possible determinants - a systematic review and a meta-analysis.

PubMed

Starup-Linde, Jakob; Karlstad, Oystein; Eriksen, Stine Aistrup; Vestergaard, Peter; Bronsveld, Heleen K; de Vries, Frank; Andersen, Morten; Auvinen, Anssi; Haukka, Jari; Hjellvik, Vidar; Bazelier, Marloes T; Boer, Anthonius de; Furu, Kari; De Bruin, Marie L

2013-11-01

Patients suffering from diabetes mellitus (DM) may experience an increased risk of cancer; however, it is not certain whether this effect is due to diabetes per se. To examine the association between DM and cancers by a systematic review and meta-analysis according to the PRISMA guidelines. The systematic literature search includes Medline at PubMed, Embase, Cinahl, Bibliotek.dk, Cochrane library, Web of Science and SveMed+ with the search terms: "Diabetes mellitus", "Neoplasms", and "Risk of cancer". The included studies compared the risk of cancer in diabetic patients versus non-diabetic patients. All types of observational study designs were included. Diabetes patients were at a substantially increased risk of liver (RR=2.1), and pancreas (RR=2.2) cancer. Modestly elevated significant risks were also found for ovary (RR=1.2), breast (RR=1.1), cervix (RR=1.3), endometrial (RR=1.4), several digestive tract (RR=1.1-1.5), kidney (RR=1.4), and bladder cancer (RR=1.1). The findings were similar for men and women, and unrelated to study design. Meta-regression analyses showed limited effect modification of body mass index, and possible effect modification of age, gender, with some influence of study characteristics (population source, cancer- and diabetes ascertainment). Publication bias seemed to be present. Only published data were used in the analyses. The systematic review and meta-analysis confirm the previous results of increased cancer risk in diabetes and extend this to additional cancer sites. Physicians in contact with patients with diabetes should be aware that diabetes patients are at an increased risk of cancer.

Towards health impact assessment of drinking-water privatization--the example of waterborne carcinogens in North Rhine-Westphalia (Germany).

PubMed Central

Fehr, Rainer; Mekel, Odile; Lacombe, Martin; Wolf, Ulrike

2003-01-01

Worldwide there is a tendency towards deregulation in many policy sectors - this, for example, includes liberalization and privatization of drinking-water management. However, concerns about the negative impacts this might have on human health call for prospective health impact assessment (HIA) on the management of drinking-water. On the basis of an established generic 10-step HIA procedure and on risk assessment methodology, this paper aims to produce quantitative estimates concerning health effects from increased exposure to carcinogens in drinking-water. Using data from North Rhine-Westphalia in Germany, probabilistic estimates of excess lifetime cancer risk, as well as estimates of additional cases of cancer from increased carcinogen exposure levels are presented. The results show how exposure to contaminants that are strictly within current limits could increase cancer risks and case-loads substantially. On the basis of the current analysis, we suggest that with uniform increases in pollutant levels, a single chemical (arsenic) is responsible for a large fraction of expected additional risk. The study also illustrates the uncertainty involved in predicting the health impacts of changes in water quality. Future analysis should include additional carcinogens, non-cancer risks including those due to microbial contamination, and the impacts of system failures and of illegal action, which may be increasingly likely to occur under changed management arrangements. If, in spite of concerns, water is privatized, it is particularly important to provide adequate surveillance of water quality. PMID:12894324

A prospective validation of the Bova score in normotensive patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

PubMed

Bova, Carlo; Vanni, Simone; Prandoni, Paolo; Morello, Fulvio; Dentali, Francesco; Bernardi, Enrico; Mumoli, Nicola; Bucherini, Eugenio; Barbar, Sofia; Picariello, Claudio; Enea, Iolanda; Pesavento, Raffaele; Bottino, Fabrizio; Jiménez, David

2018-05-01

The Bova score has shown usefulness in the identification of intermediate-high risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE), but lacks prospective validation. The aim of this study was to prospectively validate the Bova score in different settings from the original derivation cohort. Consecutive, normotensive patients with acute PE recruited at 13 academic or general hospitals were stratified, using their baseline data, into the three Bova risk stages (I-III). The primary outcome was the 30-day composite of PE-related mortality, hemodynamic collapse and non-fatal PE recurrences in the three risk categories. In the study period, 639 patients were enrolled. The primary end point occurred in 45 patients (7.0%; 95% Confidence Intervals, 5.2%-9.3%). Risk stage correlated with the PE-related complication rate (stage I, 2.9%; stage II, 17%; stage III, 27%). Patients classified as stage III by the Bova score had a 6.5-fold increased risk for adverse outcomes (3.1-13.5, p < 0.001) compared with stages I and II combined. Rescue thrombolysis increased from stage I to stage III (0.6%, 12% and 15% respectively). All-cause mortality (5.3%) did not substantially differ among the stages. The Bova score accurately stratifies normotensive patients with acute PE into stages of increasing risk of 30-day PE-related complications. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Consumer phase risk assessment for Listeria monocytogenes in deli meats.

PubMed

Yang, Hong; Mokhtari, Amirhossein; Jaykus, Lee-Ann; Morales, Roberta A; Cates, Sheryl C; Cowen, Peter

2006-02-01

The foodborne disease risk associated with the pathogen Listeria monocytogenes has been the subject of recent efforts in quantitative microbial risk assessment. Building upon one of these efforts undertaken jointly by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the purpose of this work was to expand on the consumer phase of the risk assessment to focus on handling practices in the home. One-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation was used to model variability in growth and cross-contamination of L. monocytogenes during food storage and preparation of deli meats. Simulations approximated that 0.3% of the servings were contaminated with >10(4) CFU/g of L. monocytogenes at the time of consumption. The estimated mean risk associated with the consumption of deli meats for the intermediate-age population was approximately 7 deaths per 10(11) servings. Food handling in homes increased the estimated mean mortality by 10(6)-fold. Of all the home food-handling practices modeled, inadequate storage, particularly refrigeration temperatures, provided the greatest contribution to increased risk. The impact of cross-contamination in the home was considerably less. Adherence to USDA Food Safety and Inspection Service recommendations for consumer handling of ready-to-eat foods substantially reduces the risk of listeriosis.

Projected cancer risks potentially related to past, current, and future practices in paediatric CT in the United Kingdom, 1990-2020.

PubMed

Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-01-03

To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. In 2000-2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50-70% in 2000-2008 compared with 1990-1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38-113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230-680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016-2020. Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers.

Increased risk of congenital heart disease in twins in the North of England between 1998 and 2010

PubMed Central

Best, K E; Rankin, J

2015-01-01

Objective To examine the relative risk (RR) of congenital heart disease (CHD) in twins compared with singletons, according to chorionicity. Methods Twins and singletons with CHD notified to the Northern Congenital Abnormality Survey between 1998 and 2010 were included in this population-based study. Information on chorionicity was obtained from the Northern Survey of Twins and Multiple Pregnancy. Prevalence was calculated as the number of cases occurring in live births, late miscarriages (20–23 weeks), stillbirths (≥24 weeks) and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly, per 10 000 total births. The risk of CHD in twins compared with singletons was estimated using Poisson regression. Results There were 399 414 singleton births of which 2984 (0.7%) had CHD. Among 11 871 twin births, 154 (1.3%) had CHD; one twin was affected by CHD in 2.5% of twin pregnancies. Of 8605 dichorionic (DC) births and 2317 monochorionic (MC) births, 96 (1.1%) and 47 (2.0%) were associated with CHD. Compared with singletons, twins were at significantly increased risk of CHD (RR=1.73, 95% CI 1.48 to 2.04; p<0.001). MC twins were at 82% significantly increased risk of CHD compared with DC twins (RR=1.82, 95% CI 1.29 to 2.57; p<0.001). The RR of severe and mild CHD was particularly high in MC twins compared with singletons (292% increased risk, RR=3.92, 95% CI 1.25 to 12.30, p=0.02 and 207% increased risk, RR=3.07, 95% CI 2.20 to 4.28; p<0.001). Conclusions Compared with singletons, twins were at increased risk of CHD, the risk being substantially higher among MC twins. This information is important for health professionals when counselling women with twin pregnancies. PMID:26412859

Severe Obesity in Young Women and Reproductive Health: The Danish National Birth Cohort

PubMed Central

Nohr, Ellen A.; Timpson, Nicholas J.; Andersen, Camilla S.; Davey Smith, George; Olsen, Jørn; Sørensen, Thorkild I. A.

2009-01-01

Background Little is known about reproductive health in severely obese women. In this study, we present associations between different levels of severe obesity and a wide range of health outcomes in the mother and child. Methods From the Danish National Birth Cohort, we obtained self-reported information about prepregnant body mass index (BMI) for 2451 severely obese women and 2450 randomly selected women from the remaining cohort who served as a comparison group. Information about maternal and infant outcomes was also self-reported or came from registers. Logistic regression was used to estimate the association between different levels of severe obesity and reproductive outcomes. Principal Findings Subfecundity was more frequent in severely obese women, and during pregnancy, they had an excess risk of urinary tract infections, gestational diabetes, preeclampsia and other hypertensive disorders which increased with severity of obesity. They tended to have a higher risk of both pre- and post-term birth, and risk of cesarean and instrumental deliveries increased across obesity categories. After birth, severely obese women more often failed to initiate or sustain breastfeeding. Risk of weight retention 1.5 years after birth was similar to that of other women, but after adjustment for gestational weight gain, the risk was increased, especially in women in the lowest obesity category. In infants, increasing maternal obesity was associated with decreased risk of a low birth weight and increased risk of a high birth weight. Estimates for ponderal index showed the same pattern indicating an increasing risk of neonatal fatness with severity of obesity. Infant obesity measured one year after birth was also increased in children of severely obese mothers. Conclusion Severe obesity is correlated with a substantial disease burden in reproductive health. Although the causal mechanisms remain elusive, these findings are useful for making predictions and planning health care at the individual level. PMID:20041193

Venous thromboembolism in medical outpatients - a cross-sectional survey of risk assessment and prophylaxis.

PubMed

Lawall, Holger; Matthiessen, Andreas; Hohmann, Volker; Bramlage, Peter; Haas, Sylvia; Schellong, Sebastian

2011-01-01

The degree of thromboprophylaxis in medical outpatients is low despite a substantial risk for venous thromboembolism (VTE). This may be attributable to difficulties in assessing risk. Assessment tools like the Haas' scorecard aid in determining the need for thromboprophylaxis. We aimed at evaluating how the use of this tool may aid physicians in appropriately using anticoagulants. This was an epidemiological, cross-sectional survey of acute medically ill patients with limited mobility treated by general practitioners and internists. Risk assessment for VTE by the treating physician was compared to calculated risk. Of 8,123 patients evaluated between August 2006 and April 2008, 7,271 fulfilled the in- and exclusion criteria. Mean age was 69.4 ± 13.6 years, and 45.2% were male. Of these 82.8% were high risk based on their acute medical condition, 37.9% based on their underlying chronic condition. Immobilisation, heart failure, pneumonia, age, obesity, and major varicosis were the most frequently encountered risk factors. The agreement between the Haas' scorecard and physician indicated risk was high. At least 94.1% of patients with high risk received adequate anticoagulation mostly as low molecular weight heparins for a mean duration of 15.1 ± 30.5 days. There is a substantial risk for VTE in medical outpatients. Using a simple structured scorecard resulted in an overall appropriate risk assessment and high degree of anticoagulation. The scorecard may provide a tool to improve the overall awareness for VTE risk in medical outpatients, substantially improving the degree of prophylaxis in a patient population with largely underestimated risk.

Smoking Cessation Increases Short-Term Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Irrespective of Weight Gain: The Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study

PubMed Central

Oba, Shino; Noda, Mitsuhiko; Waki, Kayo; Nanri, Akiko; Kato, Masayuki; Takahashi, Yoshihiko; Poudel-Tandukar, Kalpana; Matsushita, Yumi; Inoue, Manami; Mizoue, Tetsuya; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2012-01-01

Objective The effect of smoking cessation on the risk of diabetes has been reported previously. However, it is unknown whether the association is influenced by weight gain and other potential risk factors. Methods The Japan Public Health Center-Based Prospective Study established in 1990 for Cohort I and in 1993 for Cohort II provided data, and 25,875 men and 33,959 women were analyzed. The response rate to the baseline questionnaire was 80.9%, and 68.4% of the respondents participated both the 5- and 10-year follow-up surveys. Smoking cessation was noted during the initial five years and the development of diabetes was reported in the subsequent five years. Results An increased risk was observed among individuals who newly quit smoking compared with never smokers among men (odds ratio (OR) = 1.42, 95% CI = 1.03–1.94) and women (OR = 2.84, CI = 1.53–5.29). The risk of developing diabetes among male new quitters who gained 3 kg or more during the 5-year follow-up did not substantially differ from the risk among male never smokers with less than 3 kg of weight gain or no weight gain, while an increased risk was observed among male new quitters with less or no weight gain (OR = 1.46, 95%CI 1.00–2.14). An insignificant increased risk was observed among male new quitters with a family history of diabetes compared with male never smokers with a family history of diabetes. The risk was more than twice as high for male new quitters who used to smoke 25 or more cigarettes per day compared with never smokers (OR = 2.15, 95%CI: 1.34–3.47). Discussion An increased risk of diabetes was implied among individuals who quit smoking. However, the increased risk was not implied among those who gained weight over the 5-years of follow-up. Those who had major risk factors for diabetes or who smoked heavier had a higher risk. PMID:22879858

Being an 'adolescent': The consequences of gendered risks for young people in rural Uganda.

PubMed

Bernays, Sarah; Bukenya, Dominic; Thompson, Claire; Ssembajja, Fatuma; Seeley, Janet

2018-02-01

The behaviour of adolescents is recognised increasingly as having substantial and long-term consequences for their health. We examined the meaning of 'adolescence' in southern Uganda with HIV-positive young people aged 11-24 years. Adolescent girls and boys are described differently in the local language (Luganda). Adolescence is described as a behavioural rather than a life course category and an inherently dangerous one. The practices, risks and consequences of 'adolescent' behaviour are highly gendered. Local understandings of adolescence are likely to have a significant impact on the efficacy of interventions designed to minimise their 'risky behaviour'.

Being an ‘adolescent’: The consequences of gendered risks for young people in rural Uganda

PubMed Central

Bernays, Sarah; Bukenya, Dominic; Thompson, Claire; Ssembajja, Fatuma; Seeley, Janet

2017-01-01

The behaviour of adolescents is recognised increasingly as having substantial and long-term consequences for their health. We examined the meaning of ‘adolescence’ in southern Uganda with HIV-positive young people aged 11–24 years. Adolescent girls and boys are described differently in the local language (Luganda). Adolescence is described as a behavioural rather than a life course category and an inherently dangerous one. The practices, risks and consequences of ‘adolescent’ behaviour are highly gendered. Local understandings of adolescence are likely to have a significant impact on the efficacy of interventions designed to minimise their ‘risky behaviour’. PMID:29472746

The Effects of Medicare on Medical Expenditure Risk and Financial Strain†

PubMed Central

Barcellos, Silvia Helena; Jacobson, Mireille

2016-01-01

Medicare offers substantial protection from medical expenditure risk, protection that has increased in recent years. At age 65, out-of-pocket expenditures drop by 33 percent at the mean and 53 percent at the ninety-fifth percentile. Medical-related financial strain, such as difficulty paying bills and collections agency contact, is dramatically reduced. Nonetheless, using a stylized expected utility framework, the gain from reducing out-of-pocket expenditures accounts for only 18 percent of the social costs of financing Medicare. This calculation ignores any direct health benefits from Medicare or any indirect health effects due to reductions in financial stress. PMID:27928462

Transfer of risk: "right to sue" legislation and managed care organization stock performance.

PubMed

Weeks, W B; Nells, T; Wallace, A E

2001-01-01

We examined whether Congress's consideration of legislation that gave consumers the right to sue managed care organizations impacted the performance of these companies' stocks relative to that of the market. For each company examined, the total return related to such legislation was negative and substantially lower than that expected from the market model; losses in market value were from 17 percent to 48 percent for individual companies and 22 percent for a capitalization-weighted portfolio. The study suggests that equity markets responded to the proposed legislation quickly and that the impact of proposed legislation is felt through loss of market value and increased corporate risk.

Chronic Kidney Disease and Related Long-term Complications Following Liver Transplantation

PubMed Central

Sharma, Pratima; Bari, Khurram

2015-01-01

Liver transplantation (LT) is the standard of care for patients with decompensated cirrhosis. LT recipients have excellent short-term and long-term outcomes including patient and graft survival. Since the adoption of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) - based allocation policy, the incidence of post-transplant end stage renal disease has risen significantly. Occurrence of stage 4 chronic kidney disease and end stage renal disease substantially increase the risk of post-transplant deaths. Since majority of late post-transplant mortality is due to non-hepatic post-transplant comorbidities, personalized care directed towards risk factor modification may further improve post-transplant survival. PMID:26311603

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease exacerbations: latest evidence and clinical implications

PubMed Central

Qureshi, Hammad; Sharafkhaneh, Amir

2014-01-01

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide and results in an economic and social burden that is both substantial and increasing. The natural history of COPD is punctuated by exacerbations which have major short- and long-term implications on the patient and healthcare system. Evidence-based guidelines stipulate that early detection and prompt treatment of exacerbations are essential to ensure optimal outcomes and to reduce the burden of COPD. Several factors can identify populations at risk of exacerbations. Implementing prevention measures in patients at risk is a major goal in the management of COPD. PMID:25177479

Socioeconomic development, family income, and psychosocial risk factors: a study of families with children in public elementary school.

PubMed

Assis, Simone Gonçalves de; Pires, Thiago; Pesce, Renata Pires; Avanci, Joviana Quintes; Oliveira, Raquel V C

2011-01-01

This article aims to evaluate the effects of Brazil's recent economic growth on the monetary income, consumption patterns, and risk exposures of families with children enrolled in the public elementary school system in São Gonçalo, Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil. The article analyzes the following information on families of 447 children that participated in two waves in a longitudinal study: social stratum, per capita family income, evolution in income over a three-year period, and psychosocial factors. The findings showed a 74.8% increase in the families' income, accompanied by an increase in the consumption of material assets and access to health services. This increase should not be interpreted as a guarantee of improved living and health conditions, since it was spent on basic products and needs that do not substantially affect the families' form of social inclusion. Psychosocial risk factors were frequent among the families, but decreased during the study period, which may either reflect the improved family situation or result from the later stage in child development.

Impact of viral load and the duration of primary infection on HIV transmission: systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

BLASER, Nello; WETTSTEIN, Celina; ESTILL, Janne; VIZCAYA, Luisa SALAZAR; WANDELER, Gilles; EGGER, Matthias; KEISER, Olivia

2014-01-01

Objectives HIV ‘treatment as prevention’ (TasP) describes early treatment of HIV-infected patients intended to reduce viral load (VL) and transmission. Crucial assumptions for estimating TasP's effectiveness are the underlying estimates of transmission risk. We aimed to determine transmission risk during primary infection, and of the relation of HIV transmission risk to VL. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods We searched PubMed and Embase databases for studies that established a relationship between VL and transmission risk, or primary infection and transmission risk, in serodiscordant couples. We analyzed assumptions about the relationship between VL and transmission risk, and between duration of primary infection and transmission risk. Results We found 36 eligible articles, based on six different study populations. Studies consistently found that larger VLs lead to higher HIV transmission rates, but assumptions about the shape of this increase varied from exponential increase to saturation. The assumed duration of primary infection ranged from 1.5 to 12 months; for each additional month, the log10 transmission rate ratio between primary and asymptomatic infection decreased by 0.40. Conclusions Assumptions and estimates of the relationship between VL and transmission risk, and the relationship between primary infection and transmission risk, vary substantially and predictions of TasP's effectiveness should take this uncertainty into account. PMID:24691205

Meta-analysis: antithrombotic therapy to prevent stroke in patients who have nonvalvular atrial fibrillation.

PubMed

Hart, Robert G; Pearce, Lesly A; Aguilar, Maria I

2007-06-19

Atrial fibrillation is a strong independent risk factor for stroke. To characterize the efficacy and safety of antithrombotic agents for stroke prevention in patients who have atrial fibrillation, adding 13 recent randomized trials to a previous meta-analysis. Randomized trials identified by using the Cochrane Stroke Group search strategy, 1966 to March 2007, unrestricted by language. All published randomized trials with a mean follow-up of 3 months or longer that tested antithrombotic agents in patients who have nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. Two coauthors independently extracted information regarding interventions; participants; and occurrences of ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke, major extracranial bleeding, and death. Twenty-nine trials included 28,044 participants (mean age, 71 years; mean follow-up, 1.5 years). Compared with the control, adjusted-dose warfarin (6 trials, 2900 participants) and antiplatelet agents (8 trials, 4876 participants) reduced stroke by 64% (95% CI, 49% to 74%) and 22% (CI, 6% to 35%), respectively. Adjusted-dose warfarin was substantially more efficacious than antiplatelet therapy (relative risk reduction, 39% [CI, 22% to 52%]) (12 trials, 12 963 participants). Other randomized comparisons were inconclusive. Absolute increases in major extracranial hemorrhage were small (< or =0.3% per year) on the basis of meta-analysis. Methodological features and quality varied substantially and often were incompletely reported. Adjusted-dose warfarin and antiplatelet agents reduce stroke by approximately 60% and by approximately 20%, respectively, in patients who have atrial fibrillation. Warfarin is substantially more efficacious (by approximately 40%) than antiplatelet therapy. Absolute increases in major extracranial hemorrhage associated with antithrombotic therapy in participants from the trials included in this meta-analysis were less than the absolute reductions in stroke. Judicious use of antithrombotic therapy importantly reduces stroke for most patients who have atrial fibrillation.

Extent of Atypical Hyperplasia Stratifies Breast Cancer Risk in Two Independent Cohorts of Women

PubMed Central

Degnim, Amy C.; Dupont, William D.; Radisky, Derek C.; Vierkant, Robert A.; Frank, Ryan D.; Frost, Marlene H.; Winham, Stacey J.; Sanders, Melinda E.; Smith, Jeffrey R.; Page, David L.; Hoskin, Tanya L.; Vachon, Celine M.; Ghosh, Karthik; Hieken, Tina J.; Denison, Lori A.; Carter, Jodi M.; Hartmann, Lynn C.; Visscher, Daniel W.

2016-01-01

Background Women with atypical hyperplasia (AH) on breast biopsy have a substantially increased risk of breast cancer (BC). Here we report BC risk with AH extent and subtype in two separate cohorts. Methods All samples containing AH were included from two cohorts of benign breast disease, Mayo Clinic and Nashville. Histology review quantified the number of foci of atypical ductal hyperplasia (ADH) and atypical lobular hyperplasia (ALH). BC risk was stratified for number of AH foci within AH subtypes. Results The study included 708 Mayo and 466 Nashville AH subjects. In the Mayo Cohort, increasing foci of AH was associated with a significant increase in risk of BC, both for ADH (RR’s of 2.61, 5.21, and 6.36 for 1, 2, and 3+ foci, p=0.006 for linear trend) and for ALH (RR’s of 2.56, 3.50, and 6.79 for 1, 2, and 3+ foci, p=0.001 for linear trend). In the Nashville Cohort, RR’s of BC for ADH were 2.70, 5.17, and 15.06 for 1, 2, and 3+ foci respectively (p<0.001 for linear trend); for ALH, RR’s also increased but not significantly (2.61, 3.48, and 4.02, p=0.148). Combining both Mayo and Nashville samples, risk increased significantly for 1, 2, and 3+ foci: RR’s of 2.65, 5.19, and 8.94 for ADH (p<0.001), and 2.58, 3.49, and 4.97 for ALH (p=0.001). Conclusions In two independent cohort studies of benign breast disease, extent of atypia stratifies long-term breast cancer risk for ADH and ALH. PMID:27352219

Therapeutic benefits of a component of coffee in a rat model of Alzheimer's disease.

PubMed

Basurto-Islas, Gustavo; Blanchard, Julie; Tung, Yunn Chyn; Fernandez, Jose R; Voronkov, Michael; Stock, Maxwell; Zhang, Sherry; Stock, Jeffry B; Iqbal, Khalid

2014-12-01

A minor component of coffee unrelated to caffeine, eicosanoyl-5-hydroxytryptamide (EHT), provides protection in a rat model for Alzheimer's disease (AD). In this model, viral expression of the phosphoprotein phosphatase 2A (PP2A) endogenous inhibitor, the I2(PP2A), or SET protein in the brains of rats leads to several characteristic features of AD including cognitive impairment, tau hyperphosphorylation, and elevated levels of cytoplasmic amyloid-β protein. Dietary supplementation with EHT for 6-12 months resulted in substantial amelioration of all these defects. The beneficial effects of EHT could be associated with its ability to increase PP2A activity by inhibiting the demethylation of its catalytic subunit PP2Ac. These findings raise the possibility that EHT may make a substantial contribution to the apparent neuroprotective benefits associated with coffee consumption as evidenced by numerous epidemiologic studies indicating that coffee drinkers have substantially lowered risk of developing AD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Therapeutic benefits of a component of coffee in a rat model of Alzheimer disease1

PubMed Central

Basurto-Islas, Gustavo; Blanchard, Julie; Tung, Yunn Chyn; Fernandez, Jose R.; Voronkov, Michael; Stock, Maxwell; Zhang, Sherry; Stock, Jeffry B.; Iqbal, Khalid

2014-01-01

A minor component of coffee unrelated to caffeine, eicosanoyl-5-hydroxytryptamide (EHT) provides protection in a rat model for Alzheimer’s disease (AD). In this model, viral expression of the phosphoprotein phosphatase 2A (PP2A) endogenous inhibitor, the I2PP2A or SET protein in the brains of rats leads to several characteristic features of AD including cognitive impairment, tau hyperphosphorylation, and elevated levels of cytoplasmic β-amyloid protein. Dietary supplementation with EHT for 6–12 months resulted in substantial amelioration of all of these defects. The beneficial effects of EHT could be associated with its ability to increase PP2A activity by inhibiting the demethylation of its catalytic subunit PP2Ac. These findings raise the possibility that EHT may make a substantial contribution to the apparent neuroprotective benefits associated with coffee consumption as evidenced by numerous epidemiological studies indicating the coffee drinkers have substantially lowered risk of developing AD. PMID:25034344

The gastrointestinal tract and ventilator-associated pneumonia.

PubMed

Kallet, Richard H; Quinn, Thomas E

2005-07-01

The gastrointestinal tract is believed to play an important role in ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), because during critical illness the stomach often is colonized with enteric Gram-negative bacteria. These are the same bacteria that frequently are isolated from the sputum of patients with VAP. Interventions such as selective decontamination of the digestive tract (SDD), use of sucralfate for stress ulcer prophylaxis, and enteral feeding strategies that preserve gastric pH, or lessen the likelihood of pulmonary aspiration, are used to decrease the incidence of VAP. A review of both meta-analyses and large randomized controlled trials providing Level I evidence on these topics has led to the following conclusions. First, SDD substantially decreases the incidence of VAP and may have a modest positive effect on mortality. However, there is strong contravening evidence that SDD promotes infections by Gram-positive bacteria. In the context of an emerging public health crisis from the steady rise in drug-resistant Gram-positive bacteria, we cannot endorse the general use of SDD to prevent VAP. Rather, therapy should be focused on strategies other than antibiotic prophylaxis. Second, in patients who are at risk for clinically important gastrointestinal bleeding, a histamine-2 receptor antagonist should be used for stress ulcer prophylaxis, rather than sucralfate, because histamine-2 receptor antagonist provides substantially better protection without substantially increasing the risk of VAP. Third, post-pyloric enteral feeding may reduce the incidence of VAP.

Trends and Characteristics of United States Out-of-Hospital Births 2004-2014: New Information on Risk Status and Access to Care.

PubMed

MacDorman, Marian F; Declercq, Eugene

2016-06-01

Out-of-hospital births are increasing in the United States. Our purpose was to examine trends in out-of-hospital births from 2004 to 2014, and to analyze newly available data on risk status and access to care. Newly available data from the revised birth certificate for 47 states and Washington, DC, were used to examine out-of-hospital births by characteristics and to compare them with hospital births. Trends from 2004 to 2014 were also examined. Out-of-hospital births increased by 72 percent, from 0.87 percent of United States births in 2004 to 1.50 percent in 2014. Compared with mothers who had hospital births, those with out-of-hospital births had lower prepregnancy obesity (12.5% vs 25.0%) and smoking (2.8% vs 8.5%) rates, and higher college graduation (39.3% vs 30.0%) and breastfeeding initiation (94.3% vs 80.8%) rates. Among planned home births, 67.1 percent were self-paid, compared with 31.9 percent of birth center and 3.4 percent of hospital births. Vaginal births after cesarean (VBACs) comprised 4.6 percent of planned home births and 1.6 percent of hospital and birth center births. Sociodemographic and medical risk status of out-of-hospital births improved substantially from 2004 to 2014. Improvements in risk status of out-of-hospital births from 2004 to 2014 suggest that appropriate selection of low-risk women is improving. High rates of self-pay for the costs of out-of-hospital birth suggest serious gaps in insurance coverage, whereas higher-than-average rates of VBAC could reflect lack of access to hospital VBACs. Mandating private insurance and Medicaid coverage could substantially improve access to out-of-hospital births. Improving access to hospital VBACs might reduce the number of out-of-hospital VBACs. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Epidemiology of urinary tract infection: II. Diet, clothing, and urination habits.

PubMed Central

Foxman, B; Frerichs, R R

1985-01-01

Although several health habits and behaviors are commonly cited in medical and nursing textbooks as potential causes of urinary tract infection (UTI) in women, few have been studied in a systematic fashion. In a case-control study, we evaluated the associations between UTI and the most commonly mentioned risk factors: urination habits, diet, clothing, and soaps. Because sexual intercourse and diaphragm use increase the risk of UTI, we assessed the effect of health habits and behaviors controlling for these two risk factors. Women with initial UTI were compared with controls with no UTI history; women with a second UTI were compared to those with initial UTI. For the 25 initial cases, 19 secondary cases, and 181 controls enrolled in the study from a university health service, we found using tampons and drinking soft drinks to be moderately associated (RR greater than or equal to 1.4) with both initial and recurrent UTI. Although several other individual habits had only small associations with UTI, several of these behaviors together might substantially increase risk of initial or recurring UTI. PMID:4051067

Risks of Venous Thromboembolism, Stroke, Heart Disease, and Myelodysplastic Syndrome Associated With Hematopoietic Growth Factors in a Large Population-Based Cohort of Patients With Colorectal Cancer.

PubMed

Du, Xianglin L; Zhang, Yefei

2015-12-01

To determine the relationship between the receipt of colony-stimulating factors (CSFs) with erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) and the risk of developing venous thromboembolism (VTE), stroke, heart disease, and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) in patients with colorectal cancer. We studied 80,925 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer at age ≥ 65 years in 1992-2009 from the nationwide 16 areas of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linked data. Cumulative incidence and the time to events Cox hazard regressions were used to explore the risks of outcomes in association with the receipt of CSFs and ESAs. Patients who received chemotherapy (CT) with both CSF and ESA were 58% more likely to develop VTE than those who received CT without CSF and ESA (hazard ratio, 1.58; 95% confidence interval, 1.43-1.76). The risk of stroke appeared to be not associated with the use of CSF and ESA, whereas the risk of heart disease was only significantly elevated in those patients who did not receive CT but received ESA. The risk of acute myeloid leukemia or MDS was significantly increased 4- to 9-fold in patients who received ESA, regardless of receipt of CT or CSF. The use of ESAs was significantly associated with a substantially increased risk of MDS in patients with colorectal cancer. The use of CSFs and ESAs was also significantly associated with a moderately increased risk of VTE and a slightly elevated risk of heart disease. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Location in the right hemi-colon is an independent risk factor for delayed post-polypectomy hemorrhage: a multi-center case-control study.

PubMed

Buddingh, K Tim; Herngreen, Thomas; Haringsma, Jelle; van der Zwet, Wil C; Vleggaar, Frank P; Breumelhof, Ronald; Ter Borg, Frank

2011-06-01

Delayed hemorrhage is an infrequent, but serious complication of colonoscopic polypectomy. Large size is the only polyp-related factor that has been unequivocally proven to increase the risk of delayed bleeding. It has been suggested that location in the right hemi-colon is also a risk factor. The objective of this study was to determine whether polyp location is an independent risk factor for delayed post-polypectomy hemorrhage. A retrospective case-control study was conducted in two university hospitals and two community hospitals. Thirty-nine cases and 117 controls were identified. In multivariate analysis, size and location were found to be independent polyp-related risk factors for delayed type hemorrhage. The risk increased by 13% for every 1 mm increase in polyp diameter (odds ratio (OR) 1.13, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.20, P<0.001). Polyps located in the right hemi-colon had an OR of 4.67 (1.88-11.61, P=0.001) for delayed hemorrhage. Polyps in the cecum seemed to be especially at high risk in univariate analysis (OR 13.82, 95% CI 2.66-71.73), but this could not be assessed in multivariate analysis as the number of cases was too small. Polyp type (sessile or pedunculated) was not a risk factor. Polyp location in the right hemi-colon seems to be an independent and substantial risk factor for delayed post-polypectomy hemorrhage. A low threshold for preventive hemostatic measures is advised when removing polyps from this region.

BVDV vaccination in North America: risks versus benefits.

PubMed

Griebel, Philip J

2015-06-01

The control and prevention of bovine viral diarrhea virus (BVDV) infections has provided substantial challenges. Viral genetic variation, persistent infections, and viral tropism for immune cells have complicated disease control strategies. Vaccination has, however, provided an effective tool to prevent acute systemic infections and increase reproductive efficiency through fetal protection. There has been substantial controversy about the safety and efficacy of BVDV vaccines, especially when comparing killed versus modified-live viral (MLV) vaccines. Furthermore, numerous vaccination protocols have been proposed to protect the fetus and ensure maternal antibody transfer to the calf. These issues have been further complicated by reports of immune suppression during natural infections and following vaccination. While killed BVDV vaccines provide the greatest safety, their limited immunogenicity makes multiple vaccinations necessary. In contrast, MLV BVDV vaccines induce a broader range of immune responses with a longer duration of immunity, but require strategic vaccination to minimize potential risks. Vaccination strategies for breeding females and young calves, in the face of maternal antibody, are discussed. With intranasal vaccination of young calves it is possible to avoid maternal antibody interference and induce immune memory that persists for 6-8 months. Thus, with an integrated vaccination protocol for both breeding cows and calves it is possible to maximize disease protection while minimizing vaccine risks.

Predicting cancer risk knowledge and information seeking: the role of social and cognitive factors.

PubMed

Hovick, Shelly R; Liang, Ming-Ching; Kahlor, Leeann

2014-01-01

This study tests an expanded Structural Influence Model (SIM) to gain a greater understanding of the social and cognitive factors that contribute to disparities in cancer risk knowledge and information seeking. At the core of this expansion is the planned risk information seeking model (PRISM). This study employed an online sample (N = 1,007) of African American, Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White adults. The addition of four cognitive predictors to the SIM substantially increased variance explained in cancer risk knowledge (R(2) = .29) and information seeking (R(2) = .56). Health literacy mediated the effects of social determinants (socioeconomic status [SES] and race/ethnicity) on cancer risk knowledge, while subjective norms mediated their effects on cancer risk information seeking. Social capital and perceived seeking control were also shown to be important mediators of the relationships between SES and cancer communication outcomes. Our results illustrate the social and cognitive mechanisms by which social determinants impact cancer communication outcomes, as well as several points of intervention to reduce communication disparities.

Strength training in the elderly: effects on risk factors for age-related diseases.

PubMed

Hurley, B F; Roth, S M

2000-10-01

Strength training (ST) is considered a promising intervention for reversing the loss of muscle function and the deterioration of muscle structure that is associated with advanced age. This reversal is thought to result in improvements in functional abilities and health status in the elderly by increasing muscle mass, strength and power and by increasing bone mineral density (BMD). In the past couple of decades, many studies have examined the effects of ST on risk factors for age-related diseases or disabilities. Collectively, these studies indicate that ST in the elderly: (i) is an effective intervention against sarcopenia because it produces substantial increases in the strength, mass, power and quality of skeletal muscle; (ii) can increase endurance performance; (iii) normalises blood pressure in those with high normal values; (iv) reduces insulin resistance; (v) decreases both total and intra-abdominal fat; (vi) increases resting metabolic rate in older men; (vii) prevents the loss of BMD with age; (viii) reduces risk factors for falls; and (ix) may reduce pain and improve function in those with osteoarthritis in the knee region. However, contrary to popular belief, ST does not increase maximal oxygen uptake beyond normal variations, improve lipoprotein or lipid profiles, or improve flexibility in the elderly.

Trends in Respiratory Syncytial Virus and Bronchiolitis Hospitalization Rates in High-Risk Infants in a United States Nationally Representative Database, 1997–2012

PubMed Central

Doucette, Abigail; Jiang, Xiaohui; Fryzek, Jon; Coalson, Jenna; McLaurin, Kimmie; Ambrose, Christopher S.

2016-01-01

Background Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) causes significant pediatric morbidity and is the most common cause of bronchiolitis. Bronchiolitis hospitalizations declined among US infants from 2000‒2009; however, rates in infants at high risk for RSV have not been described. This study examined RSV and unspecified bronchiolitis (UB) hospitalization rates from 1997‒2012 among US high-risk infants. Methods The Kids’ Inpatient Database (KID) infant annual RSV (ICD-9 079.6, 466.11, 480.1) and UB (ICD-9 466.19, 466.1) hospitalization rates were estimated using weighted counts. Denominators were based on birth hospitalizations with conditions associated with high-risk for RSV: chronic perinatal respiratory disease (chronic lung disease [CLD]); congenital airway anomalies (CAA); congenital heart disease (CHD); Down syndrome (DS); and other genetic, metabolic, musculoskeletal, and immunodeficiency conditions. Preterm infants could not be identified. Hospitalizations were characterized by mechanical ventilation, inpatient mortality, length of stay, and total cost (2015$). Poisson and linear regression were used to test statistical significance of trends. Results RSV and UB hospitalization rates were substantially elevated for infants with higher-risk CHD, CLD, CAA and DS without CHD compared with all infants. RSV rates declined by 47.0% in CLD and 49.7% in higher-risk CHD infants; no other declines in high-risk groups were observed. UB rates increased in all high-risk groups except for a 22.5% decrease among higher-risk CHD. Among high-risk infants, mechanical ventilation increased through 2012 to 20.4% and 13.5% of RSV and UB hospitalizations; geometric mean cost increased to $31,742 and $25,962, respectively, and RSV mortality declined to 0.9%. Conclusions Among high-risk infants between 1997 and 2012, RSV hospitalization rates declined among CLD and higher-risk CHD infants, coincident with widespread RSV immunoprophylaxis use in these populations. UB hospitalization rates increased in all high-risk groups except higher-risk CHD, suggesting improvement in the health status of higher-risk CHD infants, potentially due to enhanced surgical interventions. Mechanical ventilation use and RSV and UB hospitalization costs increased while RSV mortality declined. PMID:27050095

Exposure to experimental preeclampsia in mice enhances the vascular response to future injury.

PubMed

Pruthi, Dafina; Khankin, Eliyahu V; Blanton, Robert M; Aronovitz, Mark; Burke, Suzanne D; McCurley, Amy; Karumanchi, S Ananth; Jaffe, Iris Z

2015-04-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading killer of women in developed nations. One sex-specific risk factor is preeclampsia, a syndrome of hypertension and proteinuria that complicates 5% of pregnancies. Although preeclampsia resolves after delivery, exposed women are at increased long-term risk of premature CVD and mortality. Pre-existing CVD risk factors are associated with increased risk of developing preeclampsia but whether preeclampsia merely uncovers risk or contributes directly to future CVD remains a critical unanswered question. A mouse preeclampsia model was used to test the hypothesis that preeclampsia causes an enhanced vascular response to future vessel injury. A preeclampsia-like state was induced in pregnant CD1 mice by overexpressing soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1, a circulating antiangiogenic protein that induces hypertension and glomerular disease resembling human preeclampsia. Two months postpartum, soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 levels and blood pressure normalized and cardiac size and function by echocardiography and renal histology were indistinguishable in preeclampsia-exposed compared with control mice. Mice were then challenged with unilateral carotid injury. Preeclampsia-exposed mice had significantly enhanced vascular remodeling with increased vascular smooth muscle cell proliferation (180% increase; P<0.01) and vessel fibrosis (216% increase; P<0.001) compared with control pregnancy. In the contralateral uninjured vessel, there was no difference in remodeling after exposure to preeclampsia. These data support a new model in which vessels exposed to preeclampsia retain a persistently enhanced vascular response to injury despite resolution of preeclampsia after delivery. This new paradigm may contribute to the substantially increased risk of CVD in woman exposed to preeclampsia. © 2015 American Heart Association, Inc.

Residual Cardiovascular Risk in Chronic Kidney Disease: Role of High-density Lipoprotein

PubMed Central

Kon, Valentina; Yang, Haichun; Fazio, Sergio

2016-01-01

Although reducing low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol (LDL-C) levels with lipid-lowering agents (statins) decreases cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk, a substantial residual risk (up to 70% of baseline) remains after treatment in most patient populations. High-density lipoprotein (HDL) is a potential contributor to residual risk, and low HDL-cholesterol (HDL-C) is an established risk factor for CVD. However, in contrast to conventional lipid-lowering therapies, recent studies show that pharmacologic increases in HDL-C levels do not bring about clinical benefits. These observations have given rise to the concept of dysfunctional HDL where increases in serum HDL-C may not be beneficial because HDL loss of function is not corrected by or even intensified by the therapy. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases CVD risk, and patients whose CKD progresses to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) requiring dialysis are at the highest CVD risk of any patient type studied. The ESRD population is also unique in its lack of significant benefit from standard lipid-lowering interventions. Recent studies indicate that HDL-C levels do not predict CVD in the CKD population. Moreover, CKD profoundly alters metabolism and composition of HDL particles and impairs their protective effects on functions such as cellular cholesterol efflux, endothelial protection, and control of inflammation and oxidation. Thus, CKD-induced perturbations in HDL may contribute to the excess CVD in CKD patients. Understanding the mechanisms of vascular protection in renal disease can present new therapeutic targets for intervention in this population. PMID:26009251

Contamination in the Prospective Study of Child Maltreatment and Female Adolescent Health.

PubMed

Shenk, Chad E; Noll, Jennie G; Peugh, James L; Griffin, Amanda M; Bensman, Heather E

2016-01-01

To evaluate the impact of contamination, or the presence of child maltreatment in a comparison condition, when estimating the broad, longitudinal effects of child maltreatment on female health at the transition to adulthood. The Female Adolescent Development Study (N = 514; age range: 14-19 years) used a prospective cohort design to examine the effects of substantiated child maltreatment on teenage births, obesity, major depression, and past-month cigarette use. Contamination was controlled via a multimethod strategy that used both adolescent self-report and Child Protective Services records to remove cases of child maltreatment from the comparison condition. Substantiated child maltreatment significantly predicted each outcome, relative risks = 1.47-2.95, 95% confidence intervals: 1.03-7.06, with increases in corresponding effect size magnitudes, only when contamination was controlled using the multimethod strategy. Contamination truncates risk estimates of child maltreatment and controlling it can strengthen overall conclusions about the effects of child maltreatment on female health. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society of Pediatric Psychology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Towards Large-scale Twitter Mining for Drug-related Adverse Events.

PubMed

Bian, Jiang; Topaloglu, Umit; Yu, Fan

2012-10-29

Drug-related adverse events pose substantial risks to patients who consume post-market or Drug-related adverse events pose substantial risks to patients who consume post-market or investigational drugs. Early detection of adverse events benefits not only the drug regulators, but also the manufacturers for pharmacovigilance. Existing methods rely on patients' "spontaneous" self-reports that attest problems. The increasing popularity of social media platforms like the Twitter presents us a new information source for finding potential adverse events. Given the high frequency of user updates, mining Twitter messages can lead us to real-time pharmacovigilance. In this paper, we describe an approach to find drug users and potential adverse events by analyzing the content of twitter messages utilizing Natural Language Processing (NLP) and to build Support Vector Machine (SVM) classifiers. Due to the size nature of the dataset (i.e., 2 billion Tweets), the experiments were conducted on a High Performance Computing (HPC) platform using MapReduce, which exhibits the trend of big data analytics. The results suggest that daily-life social networking data could help early detection of important patient safety issues.

Risk Factors for Lower-Extremity Injuries Among Contemporary Dance Students.

PubMed

van Seters, Christine; van Rijn, Rogier M; van Middelkoop, Marienke; Stubbe, Janine H

2017-10-10

To determine whether student characteristics, lower-extremity kinematics, and strength are risk factors for sustaining lower-extremity injuries in preprofessional contemporary dancers. Prospective cohort study. Codarts University of the Arts. Forty-five first-year students of Bachelor Dance and Bachelor Dance Teacher. At the beginning of the academic year, the injury history (only lower-extremity) and student characteristics (age, sex, educational program) were assessed using a questionnaire. Besides, lower-extremity kinematics [single-leg squat (SLS)], strength (countermovement jump) and height and weight (body mass index) were measured during a physical performance test. Substantial lower-extremity injuries during the academic year were defined as any problems leading to moderate or severe reductions in training volume or in performance, or complete inability to participate in dance at least once during follow-up as measured with the Oslo Sports Trauma Research Center (OSTRC) Questionnaire on Health Problems. Injuries were recorded on a monthly basis using a questionnaire. Analyses on leg-level were performed using generalized estimating equations to test the associations between substantial lower-extremity injuries and potential risk factors. The 1-year incidence of lower-extremity injuries was 82.2%. Of these, 51.4% was a substantial lower-extremity injury. Multivariate analyses identified that ankle dorsiflexion during the SLS (OR 1.25; 95% confidence interval, 1.03-1.52) was a risk factor for a substantial lower-extremity injury. The findings indicate that contemporary dance students are at high risk for lower-extremity injuries. Therefore, the identified risk factor (ankle dorsiflexion) should be considered for prevention purposes.

Impact of changes to policy for Mexican risk travel on Canadian blood donor deferrals.

PubMed

O'Brien, Sheila F; Uzicanin, Samra; Choquet, Karine; Yi, Qi-Long; Fan, Wenli; Goldman, Mindy

2013-10-01

Travel to malaria risk areas such as Mexico is a common source of donor deferral in Canada. On February 21st, 2011 the deferrable regions in Mexico were revised to permit donation if donors travelled to the state of Quintana Roo, Mexico, a popular ocean-side resort area. Canadian travel data and malaria deferral rates since 2007 were plotted to examine trends. Deferral records in one centre were accessed from January to April, 2011 to tabulate travel destinations of deferred donors immediately before and after the change. Travel to Mexico and the Caribbean accounts for 63% of general population travel, and travel to Mexico has been increasing (P <0.05). Deferral for short-term malaria risk travel has a strong seasonal trend with peaks in the winter and troughs in the summer. Approximately 36,000 fewer donations were lost following the change, a reduction of 37% from the previous year. Deferrals in one centre increased for Caribbean/Central America after the change (P <0.05) consistent with the seasonal trend, but decreased for Mexico (P <0.05). Deferrals for malaria risk travel are substantial. Careful revision and refinement of risk areas of travel can significantly reduce the burden of deferral.

Exemestane Reduces Breast Cancer Risk in High-Risk Postmenopausal Women

Cancer.gov

Clinical trial results presented at the 2011 ASCO annual meeting showed that the aromatase inhibitor exemestane—used to treat early and advanced breast cancer—substantially reduced the risk of invasive breast cancer in high-risk postmenopausal women.

Modeling employer self-insurance decisions after the Affordable Care Act.

PubMed

Cordova, Amado; Eibner, Christine; Vardavas, Raffaele; Broyles, James; Girosi, Federico

2013-04-01

To present a microsimulation model that addresses the methodological challenge of estimating the firm decision to self-insure. The model considers the risk that the firm bears when self-insuring and the opportunity to mitigate that risk by purchasing stop-loss insurance. The model makes use of a structural, utility maximization framework to account for numerous aspects of the firm decision, and a multinomial probit to reproduce the elasticity of the firm's demand for health insurance. Our simulations provide three important conclusions. First, they project significant increases in self-insurance rates among small firms--presumably induced by the desire to avoid ACA's rate-banding and risk adjustment regulations-only if generous stop-loss policies become widely available. Second, they show that this increase would be due to this hypothetical adoption of widespread, generous reinsurance by the market and not by passage of the ACA. Third, even with a substantial increase of self-insurance rates among small firms, they project negligible adverse selection in the exchanges, as indicated by our finding that the increase in exchange premium is less than 0.5% when assuming very generous stop-loss policies after implementation of the ACA. © Health Research and Educational Trust.

Modeling Employer Self-Insurance Decisions after the Affordable Care Act

PubMed Central

Cordova, Amado; Eibner, Christine; Vardavas, Raffaele; Broyles, James; Girosi, Federico

2013-01-01

Objective To present a microsimulation model that addresses the methodological challenge of estimating the firm decision to self-insure. Methodology The model considers the risk that the firm bears when self-insuring and the opportunity to mitigate that risk by purchasing stop-loss insurance. The model makes use of a structural, utility maximization framework to account for numerous aspects of the firm decision, and a multinomial probit to reproduce the elasticity of the firm's demand for health insurance. Findings and Conclusions Our simulations provide three important conclusions. First, they project significant increases in self-insurance rates among small firms--presumably induced by the desire to avoid ACA's rate-banding and risk adjustment regulations—only if generous stop-loss policies become widely available. Second, they show that this increase would be due to this hypothetical adoption of widespread, generous reinsurance by the market and not by passage of the ACA. Third, even with a substantial increase of self-insurance rates among small firms, they project negligible adverse selection in the exchanges, as indicated by our finding that the increase in exchange premium is less than 0.5% when assuming very generous stop-loss policies after implementation of the ACA. PMID:23346976

Impact of Common Diabetes Risk Variant in MTNR1B on Sleep, Circadian, and Melatonin Physiology.

PubMed

Lane, Jacqueline M; Chang, Anne-Marie; Bjonnes, Andrew C; Aeschbach, Daniel; Anderson, Clare; Cade, Brian E; Cain, Sean W; Czeisler, Charles A; Gharib, Sina A; Gooley, Joshua J; Gottlieb, Daniel J; Grant, Struan F A; Klerman, Elizabeth B; Lauderdale, Diane S; Lockley, Steven W; Munch, Miriam; Patel, Sanjay; Punjabi, Naresh M; Rajaratnam, Shanthakumar M W; Rueger, Melanie; St Hilaire, Melissa A; Santhi, Nayantara; Scheuermaier, Karin; Van Reen, Eliza; Zee, Phyllis C; Shea, Steven A; Duffy, Jeanne F; Buxton, Orfeu M; Redline, Susan; Scheer, Frank A J L; Saxena, Richa

2016-06-01

The risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is increased by abnormalities in sleep quantity and quality, circadian alignment, and melatonin regulation. A common genetic variant in a receptor for the circadian-regulated hormone melatonin (MTNR1B) is associated with increased fasting blood glucose and risk of T2D, but whether sleep or circadian disruption mediates this risk is unknown. We aimed to test if MTNR1B diabetes risk variant rs10830963 associates with measures of sleep or circadian physiology in intensive in-laboratory protocols (n = 58-96) or cross-sectional studies with sleep quantity and quality and timing measures from self-report (n = 4,307-10,332), actigraphy (n = 1,513), or polysomnography (n = 3,021). In the in-laboratory studies, we found a significant association with a substantially longer duration of elevated melatonin levels (41 min) and delayed circadian phase of dim-light melatonin offset (1.37 h), partially mediated through delayed offset of melatonin synthesis. Furthermore, increased T2D risk in MTNR1B risk allele carriers was more pronounced in early risers versus late risers as determined by 7 days of actigraphy. Our results provide the surprising insight that the MTNR1B risk allele influences dynamics of melatonin secretion, generating a novel hypothesis that the MTNR1B risk allele may extend the duration of endogenous melatonin production later into the morning and that early waking may magnify the diabetes risk conferred by the risk allele. © 2016 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.

Cardiovascular risk in chronic kidney disease: what is new in the pathogenesis and treatment?

PubMed

Bazyluk, Angelika; Malyszko, Jolanta; Zbroch, Edyta

2018-06-12

The prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) has increased markedly over past decades due to the aging of the worldwide population. Despite the progress in the prevention and treatment, the cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality remain high among patients with CKD. Although CKD is a progressive and irreversible condition, it is possible to slow decreasing kidney function, as well as the development and progression of associated with kidney disease comorbidities. Diabetes mellitus has become major cause of CKD worldwide. It is estimated that the prevalence of diabetes will increase from 425 million worldwide in 2017 to 629 million by 2045, substantially the percentage of diabetic nephropathy among CKD patients is set to rise markedly. The results of multicenter trials concerning novel antidiabetic drugs suggest that efficacy in reducing CV risk is independent of the improvement in glycemic control. This review discusses underlying causes of high CV risk and strategies reducing individual burden among CKD patients.

Epidemiology of Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Lung Disease and Tuberculosis, Hawaii, USA.

PubMed

Adjemian, Jennifer; Frankland, Timothy B; Daida, Yihe G; Honda, Jennifer R; Olivier, Kenneth N; Zelazny, Adrian; Honda, Stacey; Prevots, D Rebecca

2017-03-01

Previous studies found Hawaiians and Asian-Americans/Pacific Islanders to be independently at increased risk for nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTMPD) and tuberculosis (TB). To better understand NTM infection and TB risk patterns in Hawaii, USA, we evaluated data on a cohort of patients in Hawaii for 2005-2013. Period prevalence of NTMPD was highest among Japanese, Chinese, and Vietnamese patients (>300/100,000 persons) and lowest among Native Hawaiians and Other Pacific Islanders (50/100,000). Japanese patients were twice as likely as all other racial/ethnic groups to have Mycobacterium abscessus isolated (adjusted odds ratio 2.0, 95% CI 1.2-3.2) but were not at increased risk for infection with other mycobacteria species. In contrast, incidence of TB was stable and was lowest among Japanese patients (no cases) and highest among Filipino, Korean, and Vietnamese patients (>50/100,000). Substantial differences exist in the epidemiology of NTMPD by race/ethnicity, suggesting behavioral and biologic factors that affect disease susceptibility.

Epidemiology of Nontuberculous Mycobacterial Lung Disease and Tuberculosis, Hawaii, USA

PubMed Central

Frankland, Timothy B.; Daida, Yihe G.; Honda, Jennifer R.; Olivier, Kenneth N.; Zelazny, Adrian; Honda, Stacey; Prevots, D. Rebecca

2017-01-01

Previous studies found Hawaiians and Asian-Americans/Pacific Islanders to be independently at increased risk for nontuberculous mycobacterial pulmonary disease (NTMPD) and tuberculosis (TB). To better understand NTM infection and TB risk patterns in Hawaii, USA, we evaluated data on a cohort of patients in Hawaii for 2005–2013. Period prevalence of NTMPD was highest among Japanese, Chinese, and Vietnamese patients (>300/100,000 persons) and lowest among Native Hawaiians and Other Pacific Islanders (50/100,000). Japanese patients were twice as likely as all other racial/ethnic groups to have Mycobacterium abscessus isolated (adjusted odds ratio 2.0, 95% CI 1.2–3.2) but were not at increased risk for infection with other mycobacteria species. In contrast, incidence of TB was stable and was lowest among Japanese patients (no cases) and highest among Filipino, Korean, and Vietnamese patients (>50/100,000). Substantial differences exist in the epidemiology of NTMPD by race/ethnicity, suggesting behavioral and biologic factors that affect disease susceptibility. PMID:28221128

Gender inequality: Bad for men's health.

PubMed

Cornell, M

2013-01-01

Men's increased risk of death in ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is widely reported but poorly understood. Some studies have attributed this risk to men's poorer health-seeking behaviour, which may prevent them from accessing ART, being adherent to treatment, or remaining in care. In a multicentre analysis of 46 201 adults starting ART in urban and rural settings in South Africa, these factors only partly explained men's increased mortality while receiving ART. Importantly, the gender difference in mortality among patients receiving ART (31% higher for men than women) was substantially smaller than that among HIV-negative South Africans, where men had twice the risk of death compared with women. Yet, this extreme gender inequality in mortality, both within and outside of ART programmes, has not given rise to widespread action. Here it is argued that, despite their dominance in society, men may be subject to a wide range of unfair discriminatory practices, which negatively affect their health outcomes. The health needs of men and boys require urgent attention.

Gender inequality: Bad for men’s health

PubMed Central

Cornell, M

2013-01-01

Men’s increased risk of death in ART programmes in sub-Saharan Africa is widely reported but poorly understood. Some studies have attributed this risk to men’s poorer health-seeking behaviour, which may prevent them from accessing ART, being adherent to treatment, or remaining in care. In a multicentre analysis of 46 201 adults starting ART in urban and rural settings in South Africa, these factors only partly explained men’s increased mortality while receiving ART. Importantly, the gender difference in mortality among patients receiving ART (31% higher for men than women) was substantially smaller than that among HIV-negative South Africans, where men had twice the risk of death compared with women. Yet, this extreme gender inequality in mortality, both within and outside of ART programmes, has not given rise to widespread action. Here it is argued that, despite their dominance in society, men may be subject to a wide range of unfair discriminatory practices, which negatively affect their health outcomes. The health needs of men and boys require urgent attention. PMID:24078805

Neonatal vitamin D status and risk of schizophrenia: a population-based case-control study.

PubMed

McGrath, John J; Eyles, Darryl W; Pedersen, Carsten B; Anderson, Cameron; Ko, Pauline; Burne, Thomas H; Norgaard-Pedersen, Bent; Hougaard, David M; Mortensen, Preben B

2010-09-01

Clues from the epidemiology of schizophrenia suggest that low levels of developmental vitamin D may be associated with increased risk of schizophrenia. To directly examine the association between neonatal vitamin D status and risk of schizophrenia. Individually matched case-control study drawn from a population-based cohort. Danish national health registers and neonatal biobank. A total of 424 individuals with schizophrenia and 424 controls matched for sex and date of birth. The concentration of 25 hydroxyvitamin D(3) (25[OH]D3) was assessed from neonatal dried blood samples using a highly sensitive liquid chromatography tandem mass spectroscopy method. Relative risks were calculated for the matched pairs when examined for quintiles of 25(OH)D3. Compared with neonates in the fourth quintile (with 25[OH]D3 concentrations between 40.5 and 50.9 nmol/L), those in each of the lower 3 quintiles had a significantly increased risk of schizophrenia (2-fold elevated risk). Unexpectedly, those in the highest quintile also had a significantly increased risk of schizophrenia. Based on this analysis, the population-attributable fraction associated with neonatal vitamin D status was 44%. The relationship was not explained by a wide range of potential confounding or interacting variables. Both low and high concentrations of neonatal vitamin D are associated with increased risk of schizophrenia, and it is feasible that this exposure could contribute to a sizeable proportion of cases in Denmark. In light of the substantial public health implications of this finding, there is an urgent need to further explore the effect of vitamin D status on brain development and later mental health.

COPD in Never Smokers

PubMed Central

McBurnie, Mary Ann; Vollmer, William M.; Gudmundsson, Gunnar; Welte, Tobias; Nizankowska-Mogilnicka, Ewa; Studnicka, Michael; Bateman, Eric; Anto, Josep M.; Burney, Peter; Mannino, David M.; Buist, Sonia A.

2011-01-01

Background: Never smokers comprise a substantial proportion of patients with COPD. Their characteristics and possible risk factors in this population are not yet well defined. Methods: We analyzed data from 14 countries that participated in the international, population-based Burden of Obstructive Lung Disease (BOLD) study. Participants were aged ≥ 40 years and completed postbronchodilator spirometry testing plus questionnaires about respiratory symptoms, health status, and exposure to COPD risk factors. A diagnosis of COPD was based on the postbronchodilator FEV1/FVC ratio, according to current GOLD (Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease) guidelines. In addition to this, the lower limit of normal (LLN) was evaluated as an alternative threshold for the FEV1/FVC ratio. Results: Among 4,291 never smokers, 6.6% met criteria for mild (GOLD stage I) COPD, and 5.6% met criteria for moderate to very severe (GOLD stage II+) COPD. Although never smokers were less likely to have COPD and had less severe COPD than ever smokers, never smokers nonetheless comprised 23.3% (240/1,031) of those classified with GOLD stage II+ COPD. This proportion was similar, 20.5% (171/832), even when the LLN was used as a threshold for the FEV1/FVC ratio. Predictors of COPD in never smokers include age, education, occupational exposure, childhood respiratory diseases, and BMI alterations. Conclusion: This multicenter international study confirms previous evidence that never smokers comprise a substantial proportion of individuals with COPD. Our data suggest that, in addition to increased age, a prior diagnosis of asthma and, among women, lower education levels are associated with an increased risk for COPD among never smokers. PMID:20884729

Environmental contributions to gastrointestinal and liver cancer in the Asia-Pacific region.

PubMed

Ko, Kwang-Pil; Shin, Aesun; Cho, Sooyoung; Park, Sue K; Yoo, Keun-Young

2018-01-01

In the Asia-Pacific region, gastric, colorectal, and hepatocellular (liver) cancer show substantial regional variation in incidence consistent with the presence of important environmental factors. For gastric cancer, global incidence is concentrated in Asia with substantially higher rates in East Asia than in South-East Asia and Australia. The differences in incidence rates for gastric cancer in the Asia-Pacific region may be due, in part, to differences in the prevalence of Helicobacter pylori infection and the prevalence of H. pylori virulence factors. Smoking is also correlated with gastric cancer risk and is responsible for the highest population attributable fraction among men in East Asia. Colorectal cancer has increased rapidly in incidence to become the third most common digestive cancer in Asia. According to cohort studies in Asia, smoking, alcohol use, obesity, and physical inactivity increase the risk of colorectal cancer. Unlike West Asia, East Asia and Australia have high incidence rates for colorectal cancer that correlates to a high Human Development Index and a high prevalence of alcohol consumption and obesity. Liver cancer is the second most common digestive cancer in Asia. The high incidence of liver cancer in East Asia and South-East Asia is concordant with the high prevalence of hepatitis B virus and hepatitis C virus infection. Other important risk factors include alcohol use, smoking, and diabetes. The identification of the earlier and other environmental factors (currently under investigation) is central to the development and implementation of effective cancer control programs for the region. © 2017 Journal of Gastroenterology and Hepatology Foundation and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

Dietary carbohydrates and triacylglycerol metabolism.

PubMed

Roche, H M

1999-02-01

There is a growing body of scientific evidence which demonstrates that plasma triacylglycerol (TAG) concentration, especially in the postprandial state, is an important risk factor in relation to the development of CHD. Postprandial hypertriacylglycerolaemia is associated with a number of adverse metabolic risk factors, including the preponderance of small dense LDL, low HDL-cholesterol concentrations and elevated factor VII activity. Traditionally, a low-fat high-carbohydrate diet was used to prevent CHD because it effectively reduces plasma cholesterol concentrations, but this dietary regimen increases plasma TAG concentrations and reduces HDL-cholesterol concentrations. There is substantial epidemiological evidence which demonstrates that high plasma TAG and low plasma HDL concentrations are associated with an increased risk of CHD. Thus, there is reason for concern that the adverse effects of low-fat high-carbohydrate diets on TAG and HDL may counteract or negate the beneficial effect of reducing LDL-cholesterol concentrations. Although there have been no prospective studies to investigate whether reduced fat intake has an adverse effect on CHD, there is strong epidemiological evidence that reducing total fat intake is not protective against CHD. On the other hand, high-fat diets predispose to obesity, and central obesity adversely affects TAG metabolism. There is substantial evidence that in free-living situations low-fat high-carbohydrate diets lead to weight loss, which in turn will correct insulin resistance and plasma TAG metabolism. Clearly there is a need for prospective studies to resolve the issue as to whether low-fat high-carbohydrate diets play an adverse or beneficial role in relation to the development of CHD.

Effects of shoe sole geometry on toe clearance and walking stability in older adults.

PubMed

Thies, S B; Price, C; Kenney, L P J; Baker, R

2015-07-01

Thirty-five percent of people above age 65 fall each year, and half of their falls are associated with tripping: tripping, an apparently 'mundane' everyday problem, therefore, significantly impacts on older people's health and associated medical costs. To avoid tripping and subsequent falling, sufficient toe clearance during the swing phase is crucial. We previously found that a rocker-shaped shoe sole enhances toe clearance in young adults, thereby decreasing their trip-risk. This study investigates whether such sole design also enhances older adults' toe clearance, without inadvertently affecting their walking stability. Toe clearance and its variability are reported together with measures of walking stability for twelve older adults, walking in shoes with rocker angles of 10°, 15°, and 20°. Surface inclinations (flat, incline, decline) were chosen to reflect a potential real-world environment. Toe clearance increased substantially from the 10° to the 15° rocker angle (p=0.003) without compromising measures of walking stability (p>0.05). A further increase in rocker angle to 20° resulted in less substantial enhancement of toe clearance and came at the cost of a decrease in gait speed on the decline. The novelty of this investigation lies in the exploration of the trade-off between reduction of trip-risk through footwear design and adverse effects on walking stability on real-life relevant surfaces. Our two studies suggest that the current focus on slip-resistance in footwear design may need to be generalised to include other factors that affect trip-risk. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The HTA Risk Analysis Chart: Visualising the Need for and Potential Value of Managed Entry Agreements in Health Technology Assessment.

PubMed

Grimm, Sabine Elisabeth; Strong, Mark; Brennan, Alan; Wailoo, Allan J

2017-12-01

Recent changes to the regulatory landscape of pharmaceuticals may sometimes require reimbursement authorities to issue guidance on technologies that have a less mature evidence base. Decision makers need to be aware of risks associated with such health technology assessment (HTA) decisions and the potential to manage this risk through managed entry agreements (MEAs). This work develops methods for quantifying risk associated with specific MEAs and for clearly communicating this to decision makers. We develop the 'HTA risk analysis chart', in which we present the payer strategy and uncertainty burden (P-SUB) as a measure of overall risk. The P-SUB consists of the payer uncertainty burden (PUB), the risk stemming from decision uncertainty as to which is the truly optimal technology from the relevant set of technologies, and the payer strategy burden (PSB), the additional risk of approving a technology that is not expected to be optimal. We demonstrate the approach using three recent technology appraisals from the UK National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE), each of which considered a price-based MEA. The HTA risk analysis chart was calculated using results from standard probabilistic sensitivity analyses. In all three HTAs, the new interventions were associated with substantial risk as measured by the P-SUB. For one of these technologies, the P-SUB was reduced to zero with the proposed price reduction, making this intervention cost effective with near complete certainty. For the other two, the risk reduced substantially with a much reduced PSB and a slightly increased PUB. The HTA risk analysis chart shows the risk that the healthcare payer incurs under unresolved decision uncertainty and when considering recommending a technology that is not expected to be optimal given current evidence. This allows the simultaneous consideration of financial and data-collection MEA schemes in an easily understood format. The use of HTA risk analysis charts will help to ensure that MEAs are considered within a standard utility-maximising health economic decision-making framework.

The changing face of nanomaterials: Risk assessment challenges along the value chain.

PubMed

Mattsson, Mats-Olof; Simkó, Myrtill

2017-03-01

Risk assessment (RA) of manufactured nanomaterials (MNM) is essential for regulatory purposes and risk management activities. Similar to RA of "classical" chemicals, MNM RA requires knowledge about exposure as well as of hazard potential and dose response relationships. What makes MNM RA especially challenging is the multitude of materials (which is expected to increase substantially in the future), the complexity of MNM value chains and life cycles, the accompanying possible changes in material properties over time and in contact with various environmental and organismal milieus, and the difficulties to obtain proper exposure data and to consider the proper dose metric. This article discusses these challenges and also critically overviews the current state of the art regarding MNM RA approaches. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Duration and Timing of Exposure to Neighborhood Poverty and the Risk of Adolescent Parenthood

PubMed Central

Wodtke, Geoffrey T.

2013-01-01

Theory suggests that the impact of neighborhood poverty depends on both the duration and timing of exposure. Previous research, however, does not properly analyze the sequence of neighborhoods to which children are exposed throughout the early life course. This study investigates the effects of different longitudinal patterns of exposure to disadvantaged neighborhoods on the risk of adolescent parenthood. It follows a cohort of children in the PSID from age 4 to 19 and uses novel methods for time-varying exposures that overcome critical limitations of conventional regression when selection processes are dynamic. Results indicate that sustained exposure to poor neighborhoods substantially increases the risk of becoming a teen parent and that exposure to neighborhood poverty during adolescence may be more consequential than exposure earlier during childhood. PMID:23720166

Adolescent cigarette smoking and health risk behavior.

PubMed

Busen, N H; Modeland, V; Kouzekanani, K

2001-06-01

During the past 30 years, tobacco use among adolescents has substantially increased, resulting in major health problems associated with tobacco consumption. The purpose of this study was to identify adolescent smoking behaviors and to determine the relationship among smoking, specific demographic variables, and health risk behaviors. The sample consisted of 93 self-selecting adolescents. An ex post facto design was used for this study and data were analyzed by using nonparametric statistics. Findings included a statistically significant relationship between lifetime cigarette use and ethnicity. Statistically significant relationships were also found among current cigarette use and ethnicity, alcohol use, marijuana use, suicidal thoughts, and age at first sexual intercourse. Nurses and other providers must recognize that cigarette smoking may indicate other risk behaviors common among adolescents. Copyright 2001 by W.B. Saunders Company

New Evidence on the Relationship Between Climate and Conflict

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Burke, M.

2015-12-01

We synthesize a large new body of research on the relationship between climate and conflict. We consider many types of human conflict, ranging from interpersonal conflict -- domestic violence, road rage, assault, murder, and rape -- to intergroup conflict -- riots, coups, ethnic violence, land invasions, gang violence, and civil war. After harmonizing statistical specifications and standardizing estimated effect sizes within each conflict category, we implement a meta-analysis that allows us to estimate the mean effect of climate variation on conflict outcomes as well as quantify the degree of variability in this effect size across studies. Looking across more than 50 studies, we find that deviations from moderate temperatures and precipitation patterns systematically increase the risk of conflict, often substantially, with average effects that are highly statistically significant. We find that contemporaneous temperature has the largest average effect by far, with each 1 standard deviation increase toward warmer temperatures increasing the frequency of contemporaneous interpersonal conflict by 2% and of intergroup conflict by more than 10%. We also quantify substantial heterogeneity in these effect estimates across settings.

29 CFR 1630.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-07-01

... substantially limits major life activities only as a result of the attitudes of others toward such impairment... Threat means a significant risk of substantial harm to the health or safety of the individual or others...

Wake up and smell the coffee. Caffeine, coffee, and the medical consequences.

PubMed Central

Chou, T

1992-01-01

Caffeine is a methylxanthine whose primary biologic effect is antagonism of the adenosine receptor. Its presence in coffee, tea, soda beverages, chocolate, and many prescription and over-the-counter drugs makes it the most commonly consumed stimulant drug. Initially caffeine increases blood pressure, plasma catecholamine levels, plasma renin activity, serum free fatty acid levels, urine production, and gastric acid secretion. Its long-term effects have been more difficult to substantiate. Most of the caffeine consumed in the United States is in coffee, which contains many other chemicals that may have other biologic actions. The consumption of coffee is a self-reinforcing behavior, and caffeine dependence and addiction are common. Coffee and caffeine intake have been linked to many illnesses, but definitive correlations have been difficult to substantiate. Initial trials showing coffee's association with coronary disease and myocardial infarction have been difficult to reproduce and have many confounding variables. Recent studies showing a larger effect over long follow-up periods and with heavy coffee consumption have again brought the question of the role of coffee in disease states to the fore. Caffeine in average dosages does not seem to increase the risk of arrhythmia. At present there is no convincing evidence that caffeine or coffee consumption increases the risk for any solid tumor. The intake of coffee and caffeine has clearly been decreasing in this country over the past two decades, largely brought about by the increasing health consciousness of Americans. Although there have been many studies that hint that the fears of increased disease with coffee drinking may be warranted, many questions have yet to be answered about the health effects of coffee and caffeine use. Images PMID:1441496

Wake up and smell the coffee. Caffeine, coffee, and the medical consequences.

PubMed

Chou, T

1992-11-01

Caffeine is a methylxanthine whose primary biologic effect is antagonism of the adenosine receptor. Its presence in coffee, tea, soda beverages, chocolate, and many prescription and over-the-counter drugs makes it the most commonly consumed stimulant drug. Initially caffeine increases blood pressure, plasma catecholamine levels, plasma renin activity, serum free fatty acid levels, urine production, and gastric acid secretion. Its long-term effects have been more difficult to substantiate. Most of the caffeine consumed in the United States is in coffee, which contains many other chemicals that may have other biologic actions. The consumption of coffee is a self-reinforcing behavior, and caffeine dependence and addiction are common. Coffee and caffeine intake have been linked to many illnesses, but definitive correlations have been difficult to substantiate. Initial trials showing coffee's association with coronary disease and myocardial infarction have been difficult to reproduce and have many confounding variables. Recent studies showing a larger effect over long follow-up periods and with heavy coffee consumption have again brought the question of the role of coffee in disease states to the fore. Caffeine in average dosages does not seem to increase the risk of arrhythmia. At present there is no convincing evidence that caffeine or coffee consumption increases the risk for any solid tumor. The intake of coffee and caffeine has clearly been decreasing in this country over the past two decades, largely brought about by the increasing health consciousness of Americans. Although there have been many studies that hint that the fears of increased disease with coffee drinking may be warranted, many questions have yet to be answered about the health effects of coffee and caffeine use.

Risk factors, lifetime risk, and age at onset of breast cancer.

PubMed

Fraser, G E; Shavlik, D

1997-08-01

We evaluated the relationship between exposure variables and both lifetime risk and mean age at diagnosis of breast cancer in subjects from the Adventist Health Study who developed breast cancer before the age of 91 years. Multiple decrement life-table analysis was used. This study provided data from 20,341 women followed for 6 years. In the total population, 30-year-old women with a parental history of any cancer or a maternal history of breast cancer had, respectively, 72% (P < 0.002) and 98% (P < 0.03) higher lifetime risks of breast cancer. Thirty-year-old women who had their first delivery after age 24 years or body mass indices above the 50th percentile had, respectively, 53% (P < 0.007) or 57% (P = 0.01) greater lifetime risk of breast cancer. Women who exercised infrequently had a 27% higher life-time risk (P = 0.09) and an age at diagnosis of breast cancer 6.6 years younger (P < 0.005) than other women. Standard risk factors account for substantial increases in lifetime risk of breast cancer and may be associated with differences in age at diagnosis.

The Role of Environment and Lifestyle in Determining the Risk of Multiple Sclerosis.

PubMed

Hedström, Anna Karin; Olsson, Tomas; Alfredsson, Lars

2015-01-01

MS is a complex disease where both genetic and environmental factors contribute to disease susceptibility. The substantially increased risk of developing MS in relatives of affected individuals gives solid evidence for a genetic base for susceptibility, whereas the modest familial risk, most strikingly demonstrated in the twin studies, is a very strong argument for an important role of lifestyle/environmental factors in determining the risk of MS, sometimes interacting with MS risk genes. Lifestyle factors and environmental exposures are harder to accurately study and quantify than genetic factors. However, it is important to identify these factors since they, as opposed to risk genes, are potentially preventable. We have reviewed the evidence for environmental factors that have been repeatedly shown to influence the risk of MS: Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection, ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure habits /vitamin D status, and smoking. We have also reviewed a number of additional environmental factors, published in the past 5 years, that have been described to influence MS risk. Independent replication, preferably by a variety of methods, may give still more firm evidence for their involvement.

Do all sedentary activities lead to weight gain: sleep does not.

PubMed

Chaput, Jean-Philippe; Klingenberg, Lars; Sjödin, Anders

2010-11-01

To discuss the benefits of having a good night's sleep for body weight stability. Experimental studies have shown that short-term partial sleep restriction decreases glucose tolerance, increases sympathetic tone, elevates cortisol concentrations, decreases the satiety hormone leptin, increases the appetite-stimulating hormone ghrelin, and increases hunger and appetite. Short sleep duration might increase the risk of becoming obese, because it does not allow the recovery of a hormonal profile facilitating appetite control. Lack of sleep could also lead to weight gain and obesity by increasing the time available for eating and by making the maintenance of a healthy lifestyle more difficult. Furthermore, the increased fatigue and tiredness associated with sleeping too little could lessen one's resolve to follow exercise regimens. Short sleep duration appears to be a novel and independent risk factor for obesity. With the growing prevalence of chronic sleep restriction, any causal association between reduced sleep and obesity would have substantial importance from a public health standpoint. Future research is needed to determine whether sleep extension in sleep-deprived obese individuals will influence appetite control and/or reduce the amount of body fat.

Disability pension and symptoms of anxiety and depression: a prospective comparison of farmers and other occupational groups. The HUNT Study, Norway.

PubMed

Torske, Magnhild Oust; Hilt, Bjørn; Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Glasscock, David; Krokstad, Steinar

2015-11-02

Agriculture has undergone major changes, and farmers have been found to have a high prevalence of depression symptoms. We investigated the risk of work disability in Norwegian farmers compared with other occupational groups, as well as the associations between symptoms of anxiety and depression and future disability pension. We linked working participants of the HUNT2 Survey (1995-97) aged 20-61.9 years, of whom 3495 were farmers and 25,521 had other occupations, to national registry data on disability pension, with follow-up until 31 December 2010. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of disability pension, and to investigate the associations between symptoms of anxiety and depression caseness at baseline (score on the anxiety or depression subscales of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) ≥8) and disability pension. Farmers had a twofold increased risk of disability pension (age-adjusted and sex-adjusted HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.80 to 2.38) compared with higher grade professionals. Farmers with symptoms of depression caseness had a 53% increased risk of disability pension (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.87) compared with farmers below the cut-off point of depression caseness symptoms, whereas farmers with symptoms of anxiety caseness had a 51% increased risk (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.86). Farmers have an increased risk of disability pension compared with higher grade professionals, but the risk is lower than in most other manual occupational groups. Farmers who report high levels of depression or anxiety symptoms are at substantially increased risk of future work disability, and the risk increase appears to be fairly similar across most occupational groups. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/

Disability pension and symptoms of anxiety and depression: a prospective comparison of farmers and other occupational groups. The HUNT Study, Norway

PubMed Central

Torske, Magnhild Oust; Hilt, Bjørn; Bjørngaard, Johan Håkon; Glasscock, David; Krokstad, Steinar

2015-01-01

Objectives Agriculture has undergone major changes, and farmers have been found to have a high prevalence of depression symptoms. We investigated the risk of work disability in Norwegian farmers compared with other occupational groups, as well as the associations between symptoms of anxiety and depression and future disability pension. Methods We linked working participants of the HUNT2 Survey (1995–97) aged 20–61.9 years, of whom 3495 were farmers and 25 521 had other occupations, to national registry data on disability pension, with follow-up until 31 December 2010. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) of disability pension, and to investigate the associations between symptoms of anxiety and depression caseness at baseline (score on the anxiety or depression subscales of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) ≥8) and disability pension. Results Farmers had a twofold increased risk of disability pension (age-adjusted and sex-adjusted HR 2.07, 95% CI 1.80 to 2.38) compared with higher grade professionals. Farmers with symptoms of depression caseness had a 53% increased risk of disability pension (HR 1.53, 95% CI 1.25 to 1.87) compared with farmers below the cut-off point of depression caseness symptoms, whereas farmers with symptoms of anxiety caseness had a 51% increased risk (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.86). Conclusions Farmers have an increased risk of disability pension compared with higher grade professionals, but the risk is lower than in most other manual occupational groups. Farmers who report high levels of depression or anxiety symptoms are at substantially increased risk of future work disability, and the risk increase appears to be fairly similar across most occupational groups. PMID:26525724

Risk Factors for Birth Canal Lacerations in Primiparous Women

PubMed Central

Mikolajczyk, Rafael T.; Zhang, Jun; Troendle, James; Chan, Linda

2013-01-01

Lacerations of the birth canal are common side effects of vaginal birth. They are potentially preventable. Although serious long-term consequences have been identified for severe perineal lacerations, less attention has been paid to lacerations in other locations and how the risk factors vary for different lacerations. We analyzed a dataset including 1009 primiparous women with singleton pregnancies and vaginal deliveries, and we examined risk factors for third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations and periurethral, vaginal, and labial lacerations using logistic regression analysis. Large fetal size (≥ 3500 g) substantially increased the risk of perineal (odd ratio [OR], 3.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 7.9) and periurethral (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.0 to 5.0) lacerations but not other types of lacerations. Episiotomy had no impact on perineal lacerations (OR 0.9) but had very strong protective effects for other lacerations (OR 0.1). Prolonged second stage of labor (>120 minutes) increased the risk of perineal and vaginal lacerations but reduced the risk for periurethral lacerations. Instrumental deliveries were significant risk factors for third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations, with by far the strongest effect for low forceps (OR 25.0 versus <3 for outlet forceps, outlet vacuum, and low vacuum). We concluded that separating different birth canal lacerations is critical in identifying risk factors and potential preventive strategies. PMID:18509884

Risk factors for birth canal lacerations in primiparous women.

PubMed

Mikolajczyk, Rafael T; Zhang, Jun; Troendle, James; Chan, Linda

2008-05-01

Lacerations of the birth canal are common side effects of vaginal birth. They are potentially preventable. Although serious long-term consequences have been identified for severe perineal lacerations, less attention has been paid to lacerations in other locations and how the risk factors vary for different lacerations. We analyzed a dataset including 1009 primiparous women with singleton pregnancies and vaginal deliveries, and we examined risk factors for third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations and periurethral, vaginal, and labial lacerations using logistic regression analysis. Large fetal size (> or = 3500 g) substantially increased the risk of perineal (odd ratio [OR], 3.8; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.8 to 7.9) and periurethral (OR, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.0 to 5.0) lacerations but not other types of lacerations. Episiotomy had no impact on perineal lacerations (OR 0.9) but had very strong protective effects for other lacerations (OR 0.1). Prolonged second stage of labor (> 120 minutes) increased the risk of perineal and vaginal lacerations but reduced the risk for periurethral lacerations. Instrumental deliveries were significant risk factors for third- and fourth-degree perineal lacerations, with by far the strongest effect for low forceps (OR 25.0 versus < 3 for outlet forceps, outlet vacuum, and low vacuum). We concluded that separating different birth canal lacerations is critical in identifying risk factors and potential preventive strategies.

The relative impact of 13 chronic conditions across three different outcomes.

PubMed

Perruccio, Anthony V; Power, J Denise; Badley, Elizabeth M

2007-12-01

Previous estimates of individual and population attributable risks for adverse outcomes due to chronic conditions have considered only a limited number of conditions and outcomes, with some studies using inappropriate formulae or methods of estimation. This study re-examines the magnitude of individual and population attributable risks for a wide range of conditions and various health outcomes. Log-Poisson regression was used to calculate prevalence ratios as an indicator of individual risk and population-associated fractions of 13 chronic conditions, examining activity limitations, self-rated health and physician visits. The effect of multimorbidity on prevalence ratios was examined. Canada, 2000-01. Nationally representative sample of Canadians aged 12+ years (n _ 130 880). At the individual level, fibromyalgia/chronic fatigue syndrome and cancer, and to a lesser extent stroke and heart disease, were associated with an increased risk of both activity limitations and a self-rated health status of fair or poor; high blood pressure was associated with four or more physician visits in the previous 12 months. In contrast, population attributable fractions were substantial for arthritis/rheumatism, heart disease, back problems and high blood pressure across all outcomes. Adjustment for multimorbidity resulted in a marked decreases in prevalence ratios. Differences in the ranking of individual risks and population attributable fractions for different diseases and outcomes are substantial. This needs to be taken into account when setting priorities, as interventions may need to be targeted to different conditions depending on which aspects of health are being considered, and whether the focus is on individuals, such as in clinical care, or improving the health of the population.

Ranking the contributions of commercial fish and shellfish varieties to mercury exposure in the United States: implications for risk communication.

PubMed

Groth, Edward

2010-04-01

Fish and shellfish have important nutritional benefits, and US per capita seafood consumption has increased substantially since 2002. Recent research has reinforced concerns about adverse effects of methylmercury exposure, suggesting that methylmercury doses associated with typical US rates of fish consumption may pose measurable risks, with no threshold. These converging trends create a need to improve risk communication about fish consumption and mercury. The analysis performed here identifies the relative importance of different fish and shellfish as sources of mercury in the US seafood supply and proposes improved consumer advice, so that the public can benefit from fish consumption while minimizing mercury exposure. I have quantified contributions to total mercury in the US seafood supply by 51 different varieties of fish and shellfish, then ranked and sorted the 51 varieties in terms of relative impact. Except for swordfish, most fish with the highest mercury levels are relatively minor contributors to total inputs. Tuna (canned light, canned albacore and fresh/frozen varieties) accounts for 37.4 percent of total mercury inputs, while two-thirds of the seafood supply and nine of the 11 most heavily consumed fish and shellfish are low or very low in mercury. Substantial improvement in risk communication about mercury in fish and seafood is needed; in particular, several population subsets need better guidance to base their seafood choices more explicitly on mercury content. I have sorted the 51 seafood varieties into six categories based on mercury levels, as a framework for improving risk communication in this regard. (c) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Women and heart disease: missed opportunities.

PubMed

Banks, Angela D

2008-01-01

One woman dies of cardiovascular disease (CVD) every minute in the United States. CVD is the primary cause of mortality in US women, substantially affecting the lives of African American women compared to other ethnic groups. In a national survey conducted by the American Heart Association, 87% of women surveyed failed to cite heart disease as a major threat to their health. These misperceptions may lead women to underestimate their risk for CVD, resulting in a delay in seeking medical care, thus increasing their morbidity and mortality rates. Professional association guidelines and Internet resources for women and their health care providers are available to address the risk factors of smoking, diabetes mellitus, obesity, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and physical inactivity. Unless women are informed and educated about these risk factors, they are unable to modify their lifestyles, be proactive in their health care, or reduce their cardiovascular risks.

Struggling to Survive: Sexual Assault, Poverty, and Mental Health Outcomes of African American women

PubMed Central

Bryant-Davis, Thema; Ullman, Sarah E.; Tsong, Yuying; Tillman, Shaquita; Smith, Kimberly

2013-01-01

A substantial body of research documents the mental health consequences of sexual assault including, but not limited to, depression, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), substance use, and suicidality. Far less attention has been given to the mental health effects of sexual assault for ethnic minority women or women living in poverty. Given African American women’s increased risk for sexual assault and increased risk for persistent poverty, the current study explores the relationship between income and mental health effects within a sample of 413 African American sexual assault survivors. Hierarchical regression analyses revealed that after controlling for childhood sexual abuse there were positive relationships between poverty and mental health outcomes of depression, PTSD, and illicit drug use. There was no significant relationship between poverty and suicidal ideation. Counseling and research implications are discussed. PMID:20397989

Joint analysis of multiple biomarkers for identifying type 2 diabetes in middle-aged and older Chinese: a cross-sectional study

PubMed Central

Wu, Hongyu; Yu, Zhijie; Qi, Qibin; Li, Huaixing; Sun, Qi

2011-01-01

Objective Identifying individuals with high risk of type 2 diabetes is important. To evaluate discriminatory ability of multiple biomarkers for type 2 diabetes in a Chinese population. Methods Plasma adiponectin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, retinol-binding protein 4, resistin, C-reactive protein, interleukin 6 (IL-6), tumour necrosis factor α receptor 2 and ferritin were measured in a population-based sample of 3189 Chinese (1419 men and 1770 women) aged 50–70 years. A weighted biomarkers risk score (BRS) was developed based on the strength of associations of these biomarkers with type 2 diabetes. The discriminatory ability was tested by the area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). Results Adiponectin, plasminogen activator inhibitor-1, IL-6 and ferritin were independently associated with the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, and they were used to calculate the biomarkers risk score (BRS). After adjustment for the confounding factors, the ORs for type 2 diabetes and impaired fasting glucose with each point increment of BRS were 1.28 (95% CI 1.22 to 1.34) and 1.16 (1.12 to 1.20), respectively. Compared with those in the lowest quintile of the BRS, the participants in the highest quintile have an OR (95% CI) of 6.67 (4.21 to 10.55) for type 2 diabetes. The area under the curve for the BRS and conventional risk factors alone was 0.73 and 0.76, respectively, and substantially increased to 0.81 after combining both BRS and conventional risk factors (p<0.001). Conclusions These data suggest that combining multiple biomarkers and conventional risk factors might substantially enhance the ability to identify individuals with type 2 diabetes. More prospective data are warranted to confirm this observation. PMID:22021786

Perceived and actual risk of cardiovascular disease in patients with rheumatoid arthritis in Korea: A cross-sectional study.

PubMed

Boo, Sunjoo; Froelicher, Erika S; Yun, Ju-Hui; Kim, Ye-Won; Jung, Ju-Yang; Suh, Chang-Hee

2016-10-01

The purposes of this study were to compare the perceived and actual 10-year risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and to evaluate the influence of cardiovascular risk factors on perceived CVD risk in patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) in Korea. Additionally, the attainment of CVD prevention guideline goals by 3 levels of CVD risk (low, moderate, and high) was presented.For this cross-sectional study, data were collected from 208 patients with RA. Actual CVD risk was estimated with the Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), and goal attainment was assessed based on the European League Against Rheumatism guidelines. Actual CVD risk and perceived risk were compared with cross-tabulation. Chi-square tests were used to evaluate differences in cardiovascular risk factors by perceived risk. Levels of goal attainment were presented in percentages.Among patients with RA, 13.9% were identified as being at high risk for CVD, whereas 39.9% were at moderate risk, and 46.2% were at low risk. The majority of those at high risk (96.6%) underestimated their risk for CVD. The use of antihypertensive or lipid-lowering medications and having a parental history of CVD significantly increased the likelihood that subjects with RA would perceive themselves as being at high risk for CVD. Diabetes, smoking, physical inactivity, and obesity did not affect perceived risk. A substantial proportion of the subjects with RA did not meet the prevention guideline goals.Patients with RA who are at increased risk of developing CVD must be managed as soon as possible to attain the guideline goals and, accordingly, lower their risk of future CVD.

Asthma, other atopic conditions and risk of infections in 105 519 general population never and ever smokers.

PubMed

Helby, J; Nordestgaard, B G; Benfield, T; Bojesen, S E

2017-09-01

Individuals with atopic conditions may have increased susceptibility to infections outside the organs directly affected by their atopic condition. We tested the hypothesis that atopic conditions overall, and stratified by smoking history, are associated with increased risk of hospitalization for infections. We collected information on smoking history and self-reported atopic conditions from 105 519 individuals from the general population and followed them for up to 23 years for infectious disease hospitalizations and deaths. For asthma, we focused on never smokers with asthma diagnosed before age 50 (early asthma) to minimize confounding by chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. During follow-up, 11 160 individuals had infections. Never smokers with early asthma versus no atopic conditions had significantly increased risks of any infection (hazard ratio 1.65; 95% confidence interval 1.40-1.94), pneumonia (2.44; 1.92-3.11) and any non-respiratory tract infection (1.36; 1.11-1.67); results were similar in ever smokers. Never smokers with any asthma had significantly increased risks of any infection (1.44; 1.24-1.66) and pneumonia (1.99; 1.62-2.44). Neither atopic dermatitis (1.00; 0.91-1.10) nor hay fever (1.00; 0.93-1.07) was associated with risk of any infection. In never smokers, risk estimates for any infection were comparable between asthma and diabetes, as were the population attributable fractions of 2.2% for any asthma and 2.9% for diabetes. Early asthma was associated with significantly increased risks of any infection, pneumonia and any non-respiratory tract infection in never and ever smokers. In never smokers, risk estimates as well as population attributable fractions for any infection were comparable between asthma and diabetes, suggesting that asthma may be a substantial risk factor for infections in the general population. © 2017 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.

Childhood cancer incidence in relation to distance from the former nuclear testing site in Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan.

PubMed

Zaridze, D G; Li, N; Men, T; Duffy, S W

1994-11-15

Rates of childhood cancer between 1981 and 1990 in the 4 administrative zones of Kazakhstan were studied to assess the relationship, if any, with distance from nuclear testing sites. Risk of various cancers among children aged 14 years or younger were estimated in relation to distance from (1) a site where testing in air was performed before 1963, (2) a site where underground testing took place thereafter, and (3) a reservoir, known as "Atom Lake," created by 4 nuclear explosions in 1965. Risk of acute leukaemia rose significantly with increasing proximity of residence to the testing areas, although the absolute value of the risk gradient was relatively small. The relative risk for those living less than 200 km from the air-testing site was 1.76 compared with those living 400 km or more away from the site. Similar relative risks were observed for the underground site and "Atom Lake." There was also some evidence of increased risk of brain tumours in association with proximity to the test sites. In 2 of the 4 zones studied, there was substantial regional variation in acute leukaemia rates which was not attributable to distance from the test site. The findings may be affected by potential confounders, notably urban/rural status and ethnic factors.

Trends and Risk Factors for Mental Health Diagnoses Among Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans Using Department of Veterans Affairs Health Care, 2002–2008

PubMed Central

Metzler, Thomas J.; Gima, Kristian S.; Bertenthal, Daniel; Maguen, Shira; Marmar, Charles R.

2009-01-01

Objectives. We sought to investigate longitudinal trends and risk factors for mental health diagnoses among Iraq and Afghanistan veterans. Methods. We determined the prevalence and predictors of mental health diagnoses among 289 328 Iraq and Afghanistan veterans entering Veterans Affairs (VA) health care from 2002 to 2008 using national VA data. Results. Of 289 328 Iraq and Afghanistan veterans, 106 726 (36.9%) received mental health diagnoses; 62 929 (21.8%) were diagnosed with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and 50 432 (17.4%) with depression. Adjusted 2-year prevalence rates of PTSD increased 4 to 7 times after the invasion of Iraq. Active duty veterans younger than 25 years had higher rates of PTSD and alcohol and drug use disorder diagnoses compared with active duty veterans older than 40 years (adjusted relative risk = 2.0 and 4.9, respectively). Women were at higher risk for depression than were men, but men had over twice the risk for drug use disorders. Greater combat exposure was associated with higher risk for PTSD. Conclusions. Mental health diagnoses increased substantially after the start of the Iraq War among specific subgroups of returned veterans entering VA health care. Early targeted interventions may prevent chronic mental illness. PMID:19608954

Gene-Environment Correlation in the Development of Adolescent Substance Abuse: Selection Effects of Child Personality and Mediation via Contextual Risk Factors

PubMed Central

Hicks, Brian M.; Johnson, Wendy; Durbin, C. Emily; Blonigen, Daniel M.; Iacono, William G.; McGue, Matt

2012-01-01

We used a longitudinal twin design to examine selection effects of personality traits at age 11 on high-risk environmental contexts at age 14, and the extent to which these contexts mediated risk for substance abuse at age 17. Socialization at age 11—willingness to follow rules and endorse conventional values—predicted exposure to contextual risk at age 14. Contextual risk partially mediated the effect of socialization on substance abuse, though socialization also had a direct effect. In contrast, boldness at age 11—social engagement and assurance, thrill-seeking, and stress resilience— also predicted substance abuse directly, but was unrelated to contextual risk. There was substantial overlap in the genetic and shared environmental influences on socialization and contextual risk, and genetic risk in socialization contributed to substance abuse indirectly via increased exposure to contextual risk. This suggests that active gene-environment correlations related to individual differences in socialization contributed to an early, high-risk developmental trajectory for adolescent substance abuse. In contrast, boldness appeared to index an independent and direct genetic risk factor for adolescent substance abuse. PMID:23398757

Isolated Systolic Hypertension: An Update After SPRINT.

PubMed

Bavishi, Chirag; Goel, Sangita; Messerli, Franz H

2016-12-01

Isolated systolic hypertension is the most common hemodynamic form of hypertension in the elderly. With a rapidly aging population, the prevalence of hypertension, particularly isolated systolic hypertension, is expected to increase substantially. This phenomenon of increasing systolic pressure in the elderly is believed to be secondary to pathophysiological changes of aging as well as modifiable risk factors. Isolated systolic hypertension is associated with substantial mortality and morbidity, particularly of cerebrovascular disease. It is a rapidly growing public health concern and its management continues to remain a challenge to practicing physicians. Recent studies like the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT) and Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation (HOPE)-3 have implications for antihypertensive therapy in general and for the management of isolated systolic hypertension in particular. In this article we will review: 1) epidemiology and pathophysiologic mechanisms, 2) impact of isolated systolic hypertension on cardiovascular outcomes, 3) optimal management strategies, and 4) systolic blood pressure goals in the light of SPRINT and HOPE 3 trials. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Impact of Competing Risk of Mortality on Association of Weight Loss with Risk of Central Body Fractures in Older Men: A Prospective Cohort Study

PubMed Central

Ensrud, Kristine E.; Harrison, Stephanie L.; Cauley, Jane A.; Langsetmo, Lisa; Schousboe, John T.; Kado, Deborah M.; Gourlay, Margaret L.; Lyons, Jennifer G.; Fredman, Lisa; Napoli, Nicolas; Crandall, Carolyn J.; Lewis, Cora E.; Orwoll, Eric S.; Stefanick, Marcia L.; Cawthon, Peggy M.

2017-01-01

To determine the association of weight loss with risk of clinical fractures at the hip, spine and pelvis (central body fractures [CBF]) in older men with and without accounting for the competing risk of mortality, we used data from 4,523 men (mean age 77.5 years). Weight change between baseline and follow-up (mean 4.5 years between examinations) was categorized as moderate loss (loss ≥10%), mild loss (loss 5% to <10%), stable (<5% change) or gain (gain ≥5%). Participants were contacted every 4 months after the follow-up examination to ascertain vital status (deaths verified by death certificates) and ask about fractures (confirmed by radiographic reports). Absolute probability of CBF by weight change category was estimated using traditional Kaplan-Meier method and cumulative incidence function accounting for competing mortality risk. Risk of CBF by weight change category was determined using conventional Cox proportional hazards regression and subdistribution hazards models with death as a competing risk. During an average of 8 years, 337 men (7.5%) experienced CBF and 1,569 (34.7%) died before experiencing this outcome. Among men with moderate weight loss, CBF probability was 6.8% at 5 years and 16.9% at 10 years using Kaplan-Meier vs. 5.7% at 5 years and 10.2% at 10 years using a competing risk approach. Men with moderate weight loss compared with those with stable weight had a 1.6-fold higher adjusted risk of CBF (HR 1.59, 95% CI 1.06–2.38) using Cox models that was substantially attenuated in models accounting for competing mortality risk and no longer significant (subdistribution HR 1.16, 95% CI 0.77–1.75). Results were similar in analyses substituting hip fracture for CBF. Older men with weight loss who survive are at increased risk of CBF, including hip fracture. However, ignoring the competing mortality risk among men with weight loss substantially overestimates their longterm fracture probability and relative fracture risk. PMID:27739103

Impact of Competing Risk of Mortality on Association of Weight Loss With Risk of Central Body Fractures in Older Men: A Prospective Cohort Study.

PubMed

Ensrud, Kristine E; Harrison, Stephanie L; Cauley, Jane A; Langsetmo, Lisa; Schousboe, John T; Kado, Deborah M; Gourlay, Margaret L; Lyons, Jennifer G; Fredman, Lisa; Napoli, Nicolas; Crandall, Carolyn J; Lewis, Cora E; Orwoll, Eric S; Stefanick, Marcia L; Cawthon, Peggy M

2017-03-01

To determine the association of weight loss with risk of clinical fractures at the hip, spine, and pelvis (central body fractures [CBFs]) in older men with and without accounting for the competing risk of mortality, we used data from 4523 men (mean age 77.5 years). Weight change between baseline and follow-up (mean 4.5 years between examinations) was categorized as moderate loss (loss ≥10%), mild loss (loss 5% to <10%), stable (<5% change) or gain (gain ≥5%). Participants were contacted every 4 months after the follow-up examination to ascertain vital status (deaths verified by death certificates) and ask about fractures (confirmed by radiographic reports). Absolute probability of CBF by weight change category was estimated using traditional Kaplan-Meier method and cumulative incidence function accounting for competing mortality risk. Risk of CBF by weight change category was determined using conventional Cox proportional hazards regression and subdistribution hazards models with death as a competing risk. During an average of 8 years, 337 men (7.5%) experienced CBF and 1569 (34.7%) died before experiencing this outcome. Among men with moderate weight loss, CBF probability was 6.8% at 5 years and 16.9% at 10 years using Kaplan-Meier versus 5.7% at 5 years and 10.2% at 10 years using a competing risk approach. Men with moderate weight loss compared with those with stable weight had a 1.6-fold higher adjusted risk of CBF (HR 1.59; 95% CI, 1.06 to 2.38) using Cox models that was substantially attenuated in models accounting for competing mortality risk and no longer significant (subdistribution HR 1.16; 95% CI, 0.77 to 1.75). Results were similar in analyses substituting hip fracture for CBF. Older men with weight loss who survive are at increased risk of CBF, including hip fracture. However, ignoring the competing mortality risk among men with weight loss substantially overestimates their long-term fracture probability and relative fracture risk. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.

Breast cancer and circadian disruption from electric lighting in the modern world.

PubMed

Stevens, Richard G; Brainard, George C; Blask, David E; Lockley, Steven W; Motta, Mario E

2014-01-01

Breast cancer is the leading cause of cancer death among women worldwide, and there is only a limited explanation of why. Risk is highest in the most industrialized countries but also is rising rapidly in the developing world. Known risk factors account for only a portion of the incidence in the high-risk populations, and there has been considerable speculation and many false leads on other possibly major determinants of risk, such as dietary fat. A hallmark of industrialization is the increasing use of electricity to light the night, both within the home and without. It has only recently become clear that this evolutionarily new and, thereby, unnatural exposure can disrupt human circadian rhythmicity, of which three salient features are melatonin production, sleep, and the circadian clock. A convergence of research in cells, rodents, and humans suggests that the health consequences of circadian disruption may be substantial. An innovative experimental model has shown that light at night markedly increases the growth of human breast cancer xenografts in rats. In humans, the theory that light exposure at night increases breast cancer risk leads to specific predictions that are being tested epidemiologically: evidence has accumulated on risk in shift workers, risk in blind women, and the impact of sleep duration on risk. If electric light at night does explain a portion of the breast cancer burden, then there are practical interventions that can be implemented, including more selective use of light and the adoption of recent advances in lighting technology and application. © 2013 American Cancer Society, Inc.

Birth weight predicts the risk of gestational diabetes mellitus and pregravid obesity.

PubMed

Ogonowski, Jarosław; Miazgowski, Tomasz; Engel, Karina; Celewicz, Zbigniew

2014-01-01

It has been suggested that birth weight may determine metabolic abnormalities later in life. The aim of the current study was to assess the association between birth weight and future risk of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and pregravid obesity in a homogenous sample of Caucasian Polish women. In this retrospective study, we collected the medical reports of 787 women with GDM and 801 healthy pregnant women. We analyzed the following data: birth weight, age, pregravid weight, prior GDM, prior macrosomia, parity, and family history of diabetes. Birth weight was inversely associated with the risk of GDM; for each decrease in birth weight of 500 g, the risk increased by 11% (odds ratio [OR], 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.21). Birth weight was a strong predictor of GDM independent of other risk factors (OR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.09-1.31), and it was positively correlated with pregravid weight (R = 0.21; P < 0.00001). An increase in birth weight of 500 g substantially increased the risk of overweight and obesity (OR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.01-1.34 and OR, 1.35; 95% CI 1.11-1.64, respectively). Each of the traditional risk factors for GDM were also strong predictors of pregravid obesity: age (P < 0.0001), prior GDM (P < 0.01), prior macrosomia (P < 0.0001), multiparity (P < 0.0001), and maternal (but not paternal) history of diabetes (P < 0.0001). Among Caucasian Polish women, the risk of GDM is associated with low birth weight, and pregravid obesity is associated with high birth weight. Traditional risk factors for GDM, including maternal (but not paternal) history of diabetes, are also risk factors for pregravid obesity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Epidemiological research on radiation-induced cancer in atomic bomb survivors.

PubMed

Ozasa, Kotaro

2016-08-01

The late effects of exposure to atomic bomb radiation on cancer occurrence have been evaluated by epidemiological studies on three cohorts: a cohort of atomic bomb survivors (Life Span Study; LSS), survivors exposed IN UTERO : , and children of atomic bomb survivors (F1). The risk of leukemia among the survivors increased remarkably in the early period after the bombings, especially among children. Increased risks of solid cancers have been evident since around 10 years after the bombings and are still present today. The LSS has clarified the dose-response relationships of radiation exposure and risk of various cancers, taking into account important risk modifiers such as sex, age at exposure, and attained age. Confounding by conventional risk factors including lifestyle differences is not considered substantial because people were non-selectively exposed to the atomic bomb radiation. Uncertainty in risk estimates at low-dose levels is thought to be derived from various sources, including different estimates of risk at background levels, uncertainty in dose estimates, residual confounding and interaction, strong risk factors, and exposure to residual radiation and/or medical radiation. The risk of cancer in subjects exposed IN UTERO : is similar to that in LSS subjects who were exposed in childhood. Regarding hereditary effects of radiation exposure, no increased risk of cancers associated with parental exposure to radiation have been observed in the F1 cohort to date. In addition to biological and pathogenetic interpretations of the present results, epidemiological investigations using advanced technology should be used to further analyze these cohorts. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Japan Radiation Research Society and Japanese Society for Radiation Oncology.

Adiposity and breast cancer risk in postmenopausal women: Results from the UK Biobank prospective cohort.

PubMed

Guo, Wenji; Key, Timothy J; Reeves, Gillian K

2018-03-23

Body size is an important modifiable risk factor for postmenopausal breast cancer. However, it remains unclear whether direct measures of fat mass are better indicators of risk than anthropometric measures, or whether central adiposity may contribute to risk beyond overall adiposity. We analyzed data from 162,691 postmenopausal women in UK Biobank followed from 2006 to 2014. Body size was measured by trained technicians. Multivariable-adjusted Cox regression was used to estimate relative risks. Analyses were stratified by age at recruitment, region and socioeconomic status, and adjusted for family history of breast cancer, age at menarche, age at first birth, parity, age at menopause, previous hormone replacement therapy use, smoking, alcohol intake, height, physical activity and ethnicity. We observed 2,913 incident invasive breast cancers during a mean 5.7 years of follow-up. There was a continuous increase in risk of postmenopausal breast cancer with increasing adiposity, across all measures. The point estimate, comparing women in the top (median 37.6 kg) to bottom (median 17.6 kg) quartile of body fat mass was 1.70 (95% confidence interval 1.52-1.90). The magnitudes of the associations between per SD increase in BMI and body fat mass with breast cancer risk were similar, suggesting impedance measures of fat were not substantially better indicators of risk than anthropometric measures. After adjusting for body fat mass, the associations between anthropometric measures of central adiposity and breast cancer risk were attenuated. The magnitude of risk, across all measures of adiposity, was greater in women who had been postmenopausal for 12 or more years. © 2018 The Authors International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.

Incidence of infective endocarditis in England, 2000-13: a secular trend, interrupted time-series analysis.

PubMed

Dayer, Mark J; Jones, Simon; Prendergast, Bernard; Baddour, Larry M; Lockhart, Peter B; Thornhill, Martin H

2015-03-28

Antibiotic prophylaxis given before invasive dental procedures in patients at risk of developing infective endocarditis has historically been the focus of infective endocarditis prevention. Recent changes in antibiotic prophylaxis guidelines in the USA and Europe have substantially reduced the number of patients for whom antibiotic prophylaxis is recommended. In the UK, guidelines from the National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) recommended complete cessation of antibiotic prophylaxis for prevention of infective endocarditis in March, 2008. We aimed to investigate changes in the prescribing of antibiotic prophylaxis and the incidence of infective endocarditis since the introduction of these guidelines. We did a retrospective secular trend study, analysed as an interrupted time series, to investigate the effect of antibiotic prophylaxis versus no prophylaxis on the incidence of infective endocarditis in England. We analysed data for the prescription of antibiotic prophylaxis from Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2013, and hospital discharge episode statistics for patients with a primary diagnosis of infective endocarditis from Jan 1, 2000, to March 31, 2013. We compared the incidence of infective endocarditis before and after the introduction of the NICE guidelines using segmented regression analysis of the interrupted time series. Prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis for the prevention of infective endocarditis fell substantially after introduction of the NICE guidance (mean 10,900 prescriptions per month [Jan 1, 2004, to March 31, 2008] vs 2236 prescriptions per month [April 1, 2008, to March 31, 2013], p<0·0001). Starting in March, 2008, the number of cases of infective endocarditis increased significantly above the projected historical trend, by 0·11 cases per 10 million people per month (95% CI 0·05-0·16, p<0·0001). By March, 2013, 35 more cases per month were reported than would have been expected had the previous trend continued. This increase in the incidence of infective endocarditis was significant for both individuals at high risk of infective endocarditis and those at lower risk. Although our data do not establish a causal association, prescriptions of antibiotic prophylaxis have fallen substantially and the incidence of infective endocarditis has increased significantly in England since introduction of the 2008 NICE guidelines. Heart Research UK, Simplyhealth, and US National Institutes of Health. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Differential Child Maltreatment Risk Across Deployment Periods of US Army Soldiers.

PubMed

Taylor, Christine M; Ross, Michelle E; Wood, Joanne N; Griffis, Heather M; Harb, Gerlinde C; Mi, Lanyu; Song, Lihai; Strane, Douglas; Lynch, Kevin G; Rubin, David M

2016-01-01

We described the risk for maltreatment among toddlers of US Army soldiers over different deployment cycles to develop a systematic response within the US Army to provide families appropriate supports. We conducted a person-time analysis of substantiated maltreatment reports and medical diagnoses among children of 112,325 deployed US Army soldiers between 2001 and 2007. Risk of maltreatment was elevated after deployment for children of soldiers deployed once but not for children of soldiers deployed twice. During the 6 months after deployment, children of soldiers deployed once had 4.43 substantiated maltreatment reports and 4.96 medical diagnoses per 10,000 child-months. The highest maltreatment rate among children of soldiers deployed twice occurred during the second deployment for substantiated maltreatment (4.83 episodes per 10,000 child-months) and before the first deployment for medical diagnoses of maltreatment (3.78 episodes per 10,000 child-months). We confirmed an elevated risk for child maltreatment during deployment but also found a previously unidentified high-risk period during the 6 months following deployment, indicating elevated stress within families of deployed and returning soldiers. These findings can inform efforts by the military to initiate and standardize support and preparation to families during periods of elevated risk.

Differential Child Maltreatment Risk Across Deployment Periods of US Army Soldiers

PubMed Central

Ross, Michelle E.; Wood, Joanne N.; Griffis, Heather M.; Harb, Gerlinde C.; Mi, Lanyu; Song, Lihai; Strane, Douglas; Lynch, Kevin G.; Rubin, David M.

2016-01-01

Objectives. We described the risk for maltreatment among toddlers of US Army soldiers over different deployment cycles to develop a systematic response within the US Army to provide families appropriate supports. Methods. We conducted a person-time analysis of substantiated maltreatment reports and medical diagnoses among children of 112 325 deployed US Army soldiers between 2001 and 2007. Results. Risk of maltreatment was elevated after deployment for children of soldiers deployed once but not for children of soldiers deployed twice. During the 6 months after deployment, children of soldiers deployed once had 4.43 substantiated maltreatment reports and 4.96 medical diagnoses per 10 000 child-months. The highest maltreatment rate among children of soldiers deployed twice occurred during the second deployment for substantiated maltreatment (4.83 episodes per 10 000 child-months) and before the first deployment for medical diagnoses of maltreatment (3.78 episodes per 10 000 child-months). Conclusions. We confirmed an elevated risk for child maltreatment during deployment but also found a previously unidentified high-risk period during the 6 months following deployment, indicating elevated stress within families of deployed and returning soldiers. These findings can inform efforts by the military to initiate and standardize support and preparation to families during periods of elevated risk. PMID:26562128

Development of organ-specific donor risk indices.

PubMed

Akkina, Sanjeev K; Asrani, Sumeet K; Peng, Yi; Stock, Peter; Kim, W Ray; Israni, Ajay K

2012-04-01

Because of the shortage of deceased donor organs, transplant centers accept organs from marginal deceased donors, including older donors. Organ-specific donor risk indices have been developed to predict graft survival with various combinations of donor and recipient characteristics. Here we review the kidney donor risk index (KDRI) and the liver donor risk index (LDRI) and compare and contrast their strengths, limitations, and potential uses. The KDRI has a potential role in developing new kidney allocation algorithms. The LDRI allows a greater appreciation of the importance of donor factors, particularly for hepatitis C virus-positive recipients; as the donor risk index increases, the rates of allograft and patient survival among these recipients decrease disproportionately. The use of livers with high donor risk indices is associated with increased hospital costs that are independent of recipient risk factors, and the transplantation of livers with high donor risk indices into patients with Model for End-Stage Liver Disease scores < 15 is associated with lower allograft survival; the use of the LDRI has limited this practice. Significant regional variations in donor quality, as measured by the LDRI, remain in the United States. We also review other potential indices for liver transplantation, including donor-recipient matching and the retransplant donor risk index. Although substantial progress has been made in developing donor risk indices to objectively assess donor variables that affect transplant outcomes, continued efforts are warranted to improve these indices to enhance organ allocation policies and optimize allograft survival. Copyright © 2012 American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.

Behavioural disinhibition in the general population during the antiretroviral therapy roll-out in Sub-Saharan Africa: systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Legemate, Eva M; Hontelez, Jan A C; Looman, Caspar W N; de Vlas, Sake J

2017-07-01

Improved life expectancy and reduced transmission probabilities due to ART may result in behavioural disinhibition - that is an increase in sexual risk behaviour in response to a perceived lower risk of HIV. We examined trends in sexual risk behaviour in the general population of sub-Saharan African countries 1999-2015. We systematically reviewed scientific literature of sexual behaviour and reviewed trends in Demographic and Health Surveys. A meta-analysis on four indicators of sexual risk behaviour was performed: unprotected sex, multiple sexual partners, commercial sex and prevalence of sexually transmitted infections. Only two peer-reviewed studies met our inclusion criteria, while our review of DHS data spanned 18 countries and 16 years (1999-2015). We found conflicting trends in sexual risk behaviour. Reported unprotected sex decreased consistently across the 18 countries, for both sexes. In contrast, reporting multiple partners was decreasing over the period 1999 to the mid-2000s, yet has been consistently increasing thereafter. Similar trends were found for reported sexually transmitted infections and commercial sex (men only). In conclusion, we found no clear evidence of behavioural disinhibition due to expanded access to ART in sub-Saharan Africa. Substantial increases in condom use coincided with increases in reported multiple partners, commercial sex and sexually transmitted infections, especially during the period of ART scale-up. Further research is needed into how these changes might affect HIV transmission. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Childhood asthma and return to school in Sydney, Australia.

PubMed

Lincoln, D; Morgan, G; Sheppeard, V; Jalaludin, B; Corbett, S; Beard, J

2006-09-01

To describe the seasonal pattern of hospital admissions for childhood asthma in Sydney, Australia and investigate the relationship between these admissions and time of return to school. Time-series analysis of daily hospital admissions for childhood asthma in Sydney from 1994 to 2000. We defined the time series of all asthma-related hospital admissions in Sydney between 1994 and 2000 for age groups 1-4 and 5-14 years. We analysed the time series for each age group using a generalized additive model with a log-link function, an offset term and quasi-likelihood estimation. Daily admissions were modelled using penalised regression splines adjusting for long term trends, school terms and holidays, weekday and influenza epidemics. After adjusting for potential confounding, the risk of asthma admission increased to a peak between 2 and 4 weeks after the first day of school in each term and varied between 1.5 and 3 times the risk prior to return to school for both age groups. The largest increase in asthma risk occurring in term one after the long summer holiday. The increase in admission risk began soon after the first day of school of each term for school age children 5-14 years, but not in pre-school age children 1-4 years. Returning to school after term holidays is strongly associated with increased risk of hospital admissions for asthma in children, especially following the long summer holiday. Preventive measures focused on return to school have the potential to substantially decrease admissions for asthma in children.

Associations between hematopoietic growth factors and risks of venous thromboembolism, stroke, ischemic heart disease and myelodysplastic syndrome: findings from a large population-based cohort of women with breast cancer.

PubMed

Du, Xianglin L; Zhang, Yefei; Hardy, Dale

2016-05-01

To determine the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE), stroke, ischemic heart disease, and myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) in association with the receipt of colony-stimulating factors (CSFs) and/or erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) in women with breast cancer. We studied 77,233 women with breast cancer aged ≥65 in 1992-2009 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked data with up to 19 years of follow-up. Incidence of VTE increased from 9 cases in women receiving no chemotherapy and no CSFs/ESAs to 22.79 cases per 1,000 person-years in those receiving chemotherapy with CSFs and ESAs. Women with chemotherapy who received both CSFs and ESAs (adjusted hazard ratio and 95 % confidence interval 2.01, 1.80-2.25) or received ESAs without CSFs (2.03, 1.74-2.36) were twice as likely to develop VTE than those receiving no chemotherapy and no CSFs/ESAs, whereas those receiving CSF alone without ESA were 64 % more likely to have VTE (1.64, 1.45-1.85). Risk of MDS was significantly increased by fivefold in patients receiving ESA following chemotherapy. Receipts of CSFs and ESAs were significantly associated with an increased risk of VTE in women with breast cancer. Use of ESAs was significantly associated with substantially increased risks of MDS. These findings support those of previous studies.

An Ill Wind? Climate Change, Migration, and Health

PubMed Central

Barnett, Jon

2012-01-01

Background: Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move. Objectives: In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response. Methods: This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change. Discussion: Climate-change–related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains. Conclusions: Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change. PMID:22266739

An ill wind? Climate change, migration, and health.

PubMed

McMichael, Celia; Barnett, Jon; McMichael, Anthony J

2012-05-01

Climate change is projected to cause substantial increases in population movement in coming decades. Previous research has considered the likely causal influences and magnitude of such movements and the risks to national and international security. There has been little research on the consequences of climate-related migration and the health of people who move. In this review, we explore the role that health impacts of climate change may play in population movements and then examine the health implications of three types of movements likely to be induced by climate change: forcible displacement by climate impacts, resettlement schemes, and migration as an adaptive response. This risk assessment draws on research into the health of refugees, migrants, and people in resettlement schemes as analogs of the likely health consequences of climate-related migration. Some account is taken of the possible modulation of those health risks by climate change. Climate-change-related migration is likely to result in adverse health outcomes, both for displaced and for host populations, particularly in situations of forced migration. However, where migration and other mobility are used as adaptive strategies, health risks are likely to be minimized, and in some cases there will be health gains. Purposeful and timely policy interventions can facilitate the mobility of people, enhance well-being, and maximize social and economic development in both places of origin and places of destination. Nevertheless, the anticipated occurrence of substantial relocation of groups and communities will underscore the fundamental seriousness of human-induced climate change.

Suicide and drought in New South Wales, Australia, 1970–2007

PubMed Central

Hanigan, Ivan C.; Butler, Colin D.; Kokic, Philip N.; Hutchinson, Michael F.

2012-01-01

There is concern in Australia that droughts substantially increase the incidence of suicide in rural populations, particularly among male farmers and their families. We investigated this possibility for the state of New South Wales (NSW), Australia between 1970 and 2007, analyzing data on suicides with a previously established climatic drought index. Using a generalized additive model that controlled for season, region, and long-term suicide trends, we found an increased relative risk of suicide of 15% (95% confidence interval, 8%–22%) for rural males aged 30–49 y when the drought index rose from the first quartile to the third quartile. In contrast, the risk of suicide for rural females aged >30 y declined with increased values of the drought index. We also observed an increased risk of suicide in spring and early summer. In addition there was a smaller association during unusually warm months at any time of year. The spring suicide increase is well documented in nontropical locations, although its cause is unknown. The possible increased risk of suicide during drought in rural Australia warrants public health focus and concern, as does the annual, predictable increase seen each spring and early summer. Suicide is a complex phenomenon with many interacting social, environmental, and biological causal factors. The relationship between drought and suicide is best understood using a holistic framework. Climate change projections suggest increased frequency and severity of droughts in NSW, accompanied and exacerbated by rising temperatures. Elucidating the relationships between drought and mental health will help facilitate adaptation to climate change. PMID:22891347

Nutritional influences on epigenetic programming: asthma, allergy, and obesity.

PubMed

Palmer, Debra J; Huang, Rae-Chi; Craig, Jeffrey M; Prescott, Susan L

2014-11-01

Observational studies show consistent links between early-life nutritional exposures as important risk factors for the development of asthma, allergy, and obesity. Reliance on increasing use of dietary supplementation and fortification (eg, with folate) to compensate for increased consumption of processed foods is also influencing immune and metabolic outcomes. Epigenetics is providing substantial advances in understanding how early-life nutritional exposures can effect disease development. This article summarizes current evidence linking the influence of early-life nutritional exposures on epigenetic regulation with a focus on the disease outcomes of asthma, allergy, and obesity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future treatment and research directions in distal radius fracture.

PubMed

Jupiter, Jesse

2012-05-01

Whether or not they will have their lives dramatically extended in the next few decades, it is clear that people are living longer, healthier, and more active lives. The two peak incidences of distal radius fractures will remain within the pediatric and geriatric age groups, with the latter experiencing a substantial increase in the coming years. This article attempts to project future developments with regard to epidemiology, risk and prevention, fracture assessment, and treatment of distal radius fractures, and the ever increasing concern for the economic impact of this prevalent injury. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Effect of maternal education on the rate of childhood handicap.

PubMed

Shawky, S; Milaat, W M; Abalkhail, B A; Soliman, N K

2001-01-01

The objectives of this study were to determine the relation between maternal education and various maternal risk factors, identify the impact of maternal education on the risk of childhood handicap and estimate the proportion of childhood handicap that can be prevented by maternal education. Data was collected from all married women attending the two major maternity and child hospitals in Jeddah during April 1999. Women with at least one living child were interviewed for sociodemographic factors and having at least one handicapped child. The risk of having a handicapped child and the population attributable risk percent were calculated. Some potential risk factors are dominant in our society as approximately 30% of women did not attend school and 84% did not work. Consanguineous marriages accounted for about 43%. Pre-marriage counseling was limited as only 10% of women counseled before marriage. The proportion of unemployment and consanguineous marriages decreased significantly by increase in maternal education level. Conversely, the proportion of women reporting pre-marriage counseling increased significantly by increase in maternal education level. Approximately, 7% of women reported having at least one handicapped child. The risk of having a handicapped child showed a significant sharp decline with increase in maternal education level. At least 25% of childhood handicap can be prevented by achieving female primary education and up to half of cases can be prevented if mothers finish their intermediate education. Female education plays a major role in child health. The results of this study suggest investment in female education, which would have substantial positive effects in reducing incidence of childhood handicap in Jeddah.

Effects of ambient conditions on the risk of pressure injuries in bedridden patients-multi-physics modelling of microclimate.

PubMed

Zeevi, Tal; Levy, Ayelet; Brauner, Neima; Gefen, Amit

2018-06-01

Scientific evidence regarding microclimate and its effects on the risk of pressure ulcers (PU) remains sparse. It is known that elevated skin temperatures and moisture may affect metabolic demand as well as the mechanical behaviour of the tissue. In this study, we incorporated these microclimate factors into a novel, 3-dimensional multi-physics coupled model of the human buttocks, which simultaneously determines the biothermal and biomechanical behaviours of the buttocks in supine lying on different support surfaces. We compared 3 simulated thermally controlled mattresses with 2 reference foam mattresses. A tissue damage score was numerically calculated in a relevant volume of the model, and the cooling effect of each 1°C decrease of tissue temperature was deduced. Damage scores of tissues were substantially lower for the non-foam mattresses compared with the foams. The percentage tissue volume at risk within the volume of interest was found to grow exponentially as the average tissue temperature increased. The resultant average sacral skin temperature was concluded to be a good predictor for an increased risk of PU/injuries. Each 1°C increase contributes approximately 14 times as much to the risk with respect to an increase of 1 mmHg of pressure. These findings highlight the advantages of using thermally controlled support surfaces as well as the need to further assess the potential damage that may be caused by uncontrolled microclimate conditions on inadequate support surfaces in at-risk patients. © 2017 Medicalhelplines.com Inc and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An isokinetic training program for reducing falls in a community-dwelling older adult: a case report.

PubMed

Beebe, Justin A; Hines, Roger W; McDaniel, Laura T; Shelden, Brenda L

2013-01-01

With the population older than 65 years, projected to double by the year 2030, falls in older adults are a substantial health concern. Muscle strength deficits are one of the multifactorial components linked to increased fall risk, and decreasing these deficits has been one of the goals of interventions designed to decrease fall risk. These interventions have traditionally focused on improving peak torque; however, recent research suggests that exercise protocols that focus on the rate of torque development (RTD) may be more effective in decreasing fall risk. This case report examines clinical outcomes following implementation of an isokinetic strengthening protocol coupled with a balance program designed to reduce fall risk in a community-dwelling older adult. The individual was a 70-year-old woman with a history of 3 falls over the past 8 months and no related medical etiology who had self-limited her activities because of fear of another fall. She was classified as having substantial risk for future falls because of fall history, increased fear of falling, and below age norms on the Berg Balance Scale (BBS), and the Timed Up and Go (TUG). The treatment program consisted of 12 weeks of high-intensity isokinetic knee extensor training, high challenge dynamic gait and balance activities, and core strengthening. The isokinetic protocol consisted of 4 sets of 10 concentric-only repetitions at speeds of 240°/sec and 300°/sec for a total of 8 work sets. Dynamic gait activities incorporating directional and obstacle drills, and rocker and balance boards were used for balance training activities. Progressive theraband exercises were used for core strengthening. As her home program, the participant was encouraged to return to line dancing twice per week. During the 12-week protocol, the participant completed two 90-minute therapy sessions and two 90-minute dance classes per week. After the 12 weeks of treatment, knee extensor peak torque at 150 ms improved on the right from 67.8 N to 107.1 N (57.9% increase), and on the left from 65.1 N to 97.6 N (49.9% increase). The BBS score improved from 45 to 52; and the TUG improved from 14.0 to 8.6 seconds. Both final scores exceeded fall risk cutoffs (BBS = 48; TUG = 13.5 seconds) and the change score exceeded minimal detectable change (BBS = 7; TUG 5.4 seconds). The treatment program produced improvements in knee extensor peak torque and RTD, but more importantly, the final scores on the clinical outcome measures placed the participant above established fall-risk cutoff scores. Although future research with increased numbers of participants and a control group should be conducted to confirm this study's results, these findings support the use of isokinetic training to reduce fall risk in older adults.

Use of electric bedding devices and risk of breast cancer in African-American women.

PubMed

Zhu, Kangmin; Hunter, Sandra; Payne-Wilks, Kathleen; Roland, Chanel L; Forbes, Digna S

2003-10-15

In this case-control study, the authors aimed to examine whether use of an electric bedding device increased breast cancer risk in African-American women. Cases were 304 African-American patients diagnosed with breast cancer during 1995-1998 who were aged 20-64 years and lived in one of three Tennessee counties. Controls were 305 African-American women without breast cancer who were selected through random digit dialing and frequency-matched to cases by age and county. Information on the use of an electric blanket or heated water bed and other risk factors was collected through telephone interviews. Breast cancer risk associated with use of an electric bedding device increased with the number of years of use, the number of seasons of use, and the length of time of use during sleep. When women who used an electric bedding device for more than 6 months per year (and therefore were more likely to have used a heated water bed, which generates lower magnetic fields) were excluded, the corresponding dose-response relations were more striking. Similar trends in dose response were shown in both premenopausal and postmenopausal women and for both estrogen receptor-positive and estrogen receptor-negative tumors. The use of electric bedding devices may increase breast cancer risk in African-American women aged 20-64 years. Such an association might not vary substantially by menopausal status or estrogen receptor status.

Posttraumatic stress disorder in abused and neglected children grown up.

PubMed

Widom, C S

1999-08-01

The purpose of this study was to describe the extent to which childhood abuse and neglect increase a person's risk for subsequent posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and to determine whether the relationship to PTSD persists despite controls for family, individual, and lifestyle characteristics associated with both childhood victimization and PTSD. Victims of substantiated child abuse and neglect from 1967 to 1971 in a Midwestern metropolitan county area were matched on the basis of age, race, sex, and approximate family socioeconomic class with a group of nonabused and nonneglected children and followed prospectively into young adulthood. Subjects (N = 1,196) were located and administered a 2-hour interview that included the National Institute of Mental Health Diagnostic Interview Schedule to assess PTSD. Childhood victimization was associated with increased risk for lifetime and current PTSD. Slightly more than a third of the childhood victims of sexual abuse (37.5%), 32.7% of those physically abused, and 30.6% of victims of childhood neglect met DSM-III-R criteria for lifetime PTSD. The relationship between childhood victimization and number of PTSD symptoms persisted despite the introduction of covariates associated with risk for both. Victims of child abuse (sexual and physical) and neglect are at increased risk for developing PTSD, but childhood victimization is not a sufficient condition. Family, individual, and lifestyle variables also place individuals at risk and contribute to the symptoms of PTSD.

Climate change will increase the naturalization risk from garden plants in Europe.

PubMed

Dullinger, Iwona; Wessely, Johannes; Bossdorf, Oliver; Dawson, Wayne; Essl, Franz; Gattringer, Andreas; Klonner, Günther; Kreft, Holger; Kuttner, Michael; Moser, Dietmar; Pergl, Jan; Pyšek, Petr; Thuiller, Wilfried; van Kleunen, Mark; Weigelt, Patrick; Winter, Marten; Dullinger, Stefan; Beaumont, Linda

2017-01-01

Plant invasions often follow initial introduction with a considerable delay. The current non-native flora of a region may hence contain species that are not yet naturalized but may become so in the future, especially if climate change lifts limitations on species spread. In Europe, non-native garden plants represent a huge pool of potential future invaders. Here, we evaluate the naturalization risk from this species pool and how it may change under a warmer climate. Europe. We selected all species naturalized anywhere in the world but not yet in Europe from the set of non-native European garden plants. For this subset of 783 species, we used species distribution models to assess their potential European ranges under different scenarios of climate change. Moreover, we defined geographical hotspots of naturalization risk from those species by combining projections of climatic suitability with maps of the area available for ornamental plant cultivation. Under current climate, 165 species would already find suitable conditions in > 5% of Europe. Although climate change substantially increases the potential range of many species, there are also some that are predicted to lose climatically suitable area under a changing climate, particularly species native to boreal and Mediterranean biomes. Overall, hotspots of naturalization risk defined by climatic suitability alone, or by a combination of climatic suitability and appropriate land cover, are projected to increase by up to 102% or 64%, respectively. Our results suggest that the risk of naturalization of European garden plants will increase with warming climate, and thus it is very likely that the risk of negative impacts from invasion by these plants will also grow. It is therefore crucial to increase awareness of the possibility of biological invasions among horticulturalists, particularly in the face of a warming climate.

Are cannabis-using and non-using patients different groups? Towards understanding the neurobiology of cannabis use in psychotic disorders.

PubMed

Sami, Musa Basseer; Bhattacharyya, Sagnik

2018-03-01

A substantial body of credible evidence has accumulated that suggest that cannabis use is an important potentially preventable risk factor for the development of psychotic illness and its worse prognosis following the onset of psychosis. Here we summarize the relevant evidence to argue that the time has come to investigate the neurobiological effects of cannabis in patients with psychotic disorders. In the first section we summarize evidence from longitudinal studies that controlled for a range of potential confounders of the association of cannabis use with increased risk of developing psychotic disorders, increased risk of hospitalization, frequent and longer hospital stays, and failure of treatment with medications for psychosis in those with established illness. Although some evidence has emerged that cannabis-using and non-using patients with psychotic disorders may have distinct patterns of neurocognitive and neurodevelopmental impairments, the biological underpinnings of the effects of cannabis remain to be fully elucidated. In the second and third sections we undertake a systematic review of 70 studies, including over 3000 patients with psychotic disorders or at increased risk of psychotic disorder, in order to delineate potential neurobiological and neurochemical mechanisms that may underlie the effects of cannabis in psychotic disorders and suggest avenues for future research.

Breast implants and breast cancer: a review of incidence, detection, mortality, and survival.

PubMed

Deapen, Dennis

2007-12-01

Soon after breast implants were commercially introduced over 30 years ago, questions about potential carcinogenicity were raised. Animal experiments dating back to the mid-twentieth century demonstrated that foreign body implantation of many materials, including silicone, can induce sarcomas. Indeed, female breast cancer incidence rates in the United States have increased substantially over that period. Of the several published studies from various countries that have formally investigated the risk of breast cancer among augmentation mammaplasty patients, none show any evidence of increased risk. In fact, most find lower than expected risk, some with statistically significant reductions. Similarly, breast cancer mortality among these patients is generally found to be below that expected of other similar women. Delayed detection of breast cancer is a concern for these patients because implants can interfere with mammography. However, using indicators such as stage at diagnosis and tumor size, current research shows that augmentation patients do not experience delayed detection. Furthermore, several comparisons of post-breast cancer survival of augmented versus nonaugmented patients have found no significant differences. In summary, breast implants are not associated with an increased risk of breast cancer incidence or death, and these patients do not experience delayed detection or poorer post-breast cancer survival.

ACOG Practice Bulletin No. 194: Polycystic Ovary Syndrome.

PubMed

2018-06-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a disorder characterized by hyperandrogenism, ovulatory dysfunction, and polycystic ovaries. Its etiology remains unknown, and treatment is largely symptom based and empirical. PCOS has the potential to cause substantial metabolic sequelae, including an increased risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and these factors should be considered when determining long-term treatment. The purpose of this document is to examine the best available evidence for the diagnosis and clinical management of PCOS.

ACOG Practice Bulletin No. 194 Summary: Polycystic Ovary Syndrome.

PubMed

2018-06-01

Polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS) is a disorder characterized by hyperandrogenism, ovulatory dysfunction, and polycystic ovaries. Its etiology remains unknown, and treatment is largely symptom based and empirical. PCOS has the potential to cause substantial metabolic sequelae, including an increased risk of diabetes and cardiovascular disease, and these factors should be considered when determining long-term treatment. The purpose of this document is to examine the best available evidence for the diagnosis and clinical management of PCOS.

Radical Islam in West Africa and Effects on Security in the West Africa Sub-Region

DTIC Science & Technology

2010-12-10

financing networks involved in the sale of diamonds coupled with the migration of the Al Qaida-linked Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC) from...others, that the availability of finance is very influential and substantially increases conflict risk. Secondly, male secondary education enrollment...Muhammad and other prophets is a religious value worthy of pursuit in terms of life goals, finances , and personal sacrifice in the cause of Allah

Childhood obesity as a predictor of morbidity in adulthood: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

PubMed

Llewellyn, A; Simmonds, M; Owen, C G; Woolacott, N

2016-01-01

Obese children are at higher risk of being obese as adults, and adult obesity is associated with an increased risk of morbidity. This systematic review and meta-analysis investigates the ability of childhood body mass index (BMI) to predict obesity-related morbidities in adulthood. Thirty-seven studies were included. High childhood BMI was associated with an increased incidence of adult diabetes (OR 1.70; 95% CI 1.30-2.22), coronary heart disease (CHD) (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10-1.31) and a range of cancers, but not stroke or breast cancer. The accuracy of childhood BMI when predicting any adult morbidity was low. Only 31% of future diabetes and 22% of future hypertension and CHD occurred in children aged 12 or over classified as being overweight or obese. Only 20% of all adult cancers occurred in children classified as being overweight or obese. Childhood obesity is associated with moderately increased risks of adult obesity-related morbidity, but the increase in risk is not large enough for childhood BMI to be a good predictor of the incidence of adult morbidities. This is because the majority of adult obesity-related morbidity occurs in adults who were of healthy weight in childhood. Therefore, targeting obesity reduction solely at obese or overweight children may not substantially reduce the overall burden of obesity-related disease in adulthood. © 2015 World Obesity.

Somatic symptoms among cosmetologists compared to women in other occupations.

PubMed

Gallicchio, Lisa; Miller, Susan R; Greene, Teresa; Zacur, Howard; Flaws, Jodi A

2011-04-01

Although the literature pertaining to the cosmetology occupation and specific health effects, such as asthma, dermatitis, and reproductive function, has grown substantially, little information is available about whether cosmetologists are at increased risk of other symptoms compared to women working in other occupations. Thus, the purpose of this study was to determine if cosmetologists of reproductive age are at increased risk of self-reported symptoms compared to women of the same age working in other occupations. Data were analyzed from 450 cosmetologists and 511 women in other occupations, aged 21-55 years, in the Baltimore metropolitan region who responded to a mailed survey that ascertained detailed data on symptoms as well as usual work tasks. The data showed that cosmetologists were at increased risk of memory and sleep disturbances, muscle weakness, throat irritation, and hot flashes compared to women of the same age working in other occupations after adjustment for confounders, including cigarette smoking. Among the cosmetologists, handling cleaning supplies; hair bleaching; use of straighteners, texturizers, or permanent chemicals; and several nail care work tasks were associated with one or more of the queried symptoms. Findings from this study suggest that, compared to noncosmetologists, cosmetologists are at increased risk for a number of symptoms reported to be associated with decreased quality of life. These symptoms may also reflect chronic exposure to chemicals that have been shown to be related to more severe long-term health outcomes.

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland.

PubMed

McDermott, T K J; Surminski, S

2018-06-13

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting 'acceptable risk levels' and identifying 'adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action.This article is part of the theme issue 'Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'. © 2018 The Author(s).

How normative interpretations of climate risk assessment affect local decision-making: an exploratory study at the city scale in Cork, Ireland

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McDermott, T. K. J.; Surminski, S.

2018-06-01

Urban areas already suffer substantial losses in both economic and human terms from climate-related disasters. These losses are anticipated to grow substantially, in part as a result of the impacts of climate change. In this paper, we investigate the process of translating climate risk data into action for the city level. We apply a commonly used decision-framework as our backdrop and explore where in this process climate risk assessment and normative political judgements intersect. We use the case of flood risk management in Cork city in Ireland to investigate what is needed for translating risk assessment into action at the local city level. Evidence presented is based on focus group discussions at two stakeholder workshops, and a series of individual meetings and phone-discussions with stakeholders involved in local decision-making related to flood risk management and adaptation to climate change, in Ireland. Respondents were chosen on the basis of their expertise or involvement in the decision-making processes locally and nationally. Representatives of groups affected by flood risk and flood risk management and climate adaptation efforts were also included. The Cork example highlights that, despite ever more accurate data and an increasing range of theoretical approaches available to local decision-makers, it is the normative interpretation of this information that determines what action is taken. The use of risk assessments for decision-making is a process that requires normative decisions, such as setting `acceptable risk levels' and identifying `adequate' protection levels, which will not succeed without broader buy-in and stakeholder participation. Identifying and embracing those normative views up-front could strengthen the urban adaptation process-this may, in fact, turn out to be the biggest advantage of climate risk assessment: it offers an opportunity to create a shared understanding of the problem and enables an informed evaluation and discussion of remedial action. This article is part of the theme issue `Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy'.

Time trends in utilization of G-CSF prophylaxis and risk of febrile neutropenia in a Medicare population receiving adjuvant chemotherapy for early-stage breast cancer.

PubMed

Goyal, Ravi K; Tzivelekis, Spiros; Rothman, Kenneth J; Candrilli, Sean D; Kaye, James A

2018-02-01

The purpose of this study is to assess temporal trends in the use of granulocyte colony-stimulating factor (G-CSF) prophylaxis and risk of febrile neutropenia (FN) among older women receiving adjuvant chemotherapy for early-stage breast cancer. Women aged ≥ 66 years with diagnosis of early-stage breast cancer who initiated selected adjuvant chemotherapy regimens were identified using the SEER-Medicare data from 2002 to 2012. Adjusted, calendar-year-specific proportions were estimated for use of G-CSF primary prophylaxis (PP) and secondary prophylaxis and FN risk in the first and the second/subsequent cycles during the first course of chemotherapy, using logistic regression models. calendar-year-specific mean probabilities were estimated with covariates set to modal values. Among 11,107 eligible patients (mean age 71.7 years), 74% received G-CSF in the first course of chemotherapy. Of all patients, 5819 (52%) received G-CSF PP, and among those not receiving G-CSF PP, only 5% received G-CSF secondary prophylaxis. The adjusted proportion using G-CSF PP increased from 6% in 2002 to 71% in 2012. During the same period, the adjusted risk of FN in the first cycle increased from 2% to 3%; the adjusted risk increased from 1.5% to 2.9% among those receiving G-CSF PP and from 2.3% to 3.5% among those not receiving G-CSF PP. The use of G-CSF PP increased substantially during the study period. Although channeling of higher-risk patients to treatment with G-CSF PP is expected, the adjusted risk of FN among patients treated with G-CSF PP tended to be lower than among those not receiving G-CSF PP.

The risk of establishment of aquatic invasive species: joining invasibility and propagule pressure.

PubMed

Leung, Brian; Mandrak, Nicholas E

2007-10-22

Invasive species are increasingly becoming a policy priority. This has spurred researchers and managers to try to estimate the risk of invasion. Conceptually, invasions are dependent both on the receiving environment (invasibility) and on the ability to reach these new areas (propagule pressure). However, analyses of risk typically examine only one or the other. Here, we develop and apply a joint model of invasion risk that simultaneously incorporates invasibility and propagule pressure. We present arguments that the behaviour of these two elements of risk differs substantially--propagule pressure is a function of time, whereas invasibility is not--and therefore have different management implications. Further, we use the well-studied zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) to contrast predictions made using the joint model to those made by separate invasibility and propagule pressure models. We show that predictions of invasion progress as well as of the long-term invasion pattern are strongly affected by using a joint model.

The Afro-Cardiac Study: Cardiovascular Disease Risk and Acculturation in West African Immigrants in the United States: Rationale and Study Design.

PubMed

Commodore-Mensah, Yvonne; Sampah, Maame; Berko, Charles; Cudjoe, Joycelyn; Abu-Bonsrah, Nancy; Obisesan, Olawunmi; Agyemang, Charles; Adeyemo, Adebowale; Himmelfarb, Cheryl Dennison

2016-12-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death in the United States (US). African-descent populations bear a disproportionate burden of CVD risk factors. With the increase in the number of West African immigrants (WAIs) to the US over the past decades, it is imperative to specifically study this new and substantial subset of the African-descent population and how acculturation impacts their CVD risk. The Afro-Cardiac study, a community-based cross-sectional study of adult WAIs in the Baltimore-Washington metropolis. Guided by the PRECEDE-PROCEED model, we used a modification of the World Health Organization Steps survey to collect data on demographics, socioeconomic status, migration-related factors and behaviors. We obtained physical, biochemical, acculturation measurements as well as a socio-demographic and health history. Our study provides critical data on the CVD risk of WAIs. The framework used is valuable for future epidemiological studies addressing CVD risk and acculturation among immigrants.

Predicting the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite, using a structural equation model

PubMed Central

Sprong, Hein; van den Wijngaard, Cees C.; Harms, Margriet G.; Fonville, Manoj; Docters van Leeuwen, Arieke; Simões, Mariana; van Pelt, Wilfrid

2017-01-01

Background Understanding and quantification of the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite can aid development of prevention strategies against Lyme borreliosis. Methods We used 3,525 single tick bite reports from three large prospective studies on the transmission risk of tick-borne pathogens to humans, with 50 reports of Lyme borreliosis during the follow-up period, among 1,973 reports with known outcome. A structural equation model was applied to estimate the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite, and quantify the influence of: developmental stage of the tick, detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in the tick by PCR, tick engorgement, patient-estimated duration of tick attachment, and patient age. Results The overall risk of developing Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite was 2.6% (95%CI 1.4–5.1). The risk increased with: - Tick engorgement: 1.4% (95%CI 0.7%-2.3%) for low engorgement to 5.5% (95%CI 2.8%-9.2%) for substantially engorged ticks; - Rising patient-estimated tick attachment duration: 2.0% (95%CI 1.3%-2.8%) after <12 hours, to 5.2% (95%CI 3.0%-8.9%) after ≥4 days; - Detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in ticks: 6.7% (95%CI 3.6%-13.5%), versus 1.4% (95%CI 0.7%-2.9%) when ticks tested negative. The highest observed risk of Lyme borreliosis was 14.4% (95%CI 6.8%-24.6%) after one tick bite of a substantially engorged tick that tested positive for Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA, which corresponds to one new case of Lyme borreliosis per 7 (95%CI 4–15) of such tick bites. Conclusions An individual's risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite can be predicted with tick engorgement, patient-estimated duration of tick attachment, and detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in the tick. PMID:28742149

Predicting the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite, using a structural equation model.

PubMed

Hofhuis, Agnetha; van de Kassteele, Jan; Sprong, Hein; van den Wijngaard, Cees C; Harms, Margriet G; Fonville, Manoj; Docters van Leeuwen, Arieke; Simões, Mariana; van Pelt, Wilfrid

2017-01-01

Understanding and quantification of the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite can aid development of prevention strategies against Lyme borreliosis. We used 3,525 single tick bite reports from three large prospective studies on the transmission risk of tick-borne pathogens to humans, with 50 reports of Lyme borreliosis during the follow-up period, among 1,973 reports with known outcome. A structural equation model was applied to estimate the risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite, and quantify the influence of: developmental stage of the tick, detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in the tick by PCR, tick engorgement, patient-estimated duration of tick attachment, and patient age. The overall risk of developing Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite was 2.6% (95%CI 1.4-5.1). The risk increased with: - Tick engorgement: 1.4% (95%CI 0.7%-2.3%) for low engorgement to 5.5% (95%CI 2.8%-9.2%) for substantially engorged ticks;- Rising patient-estimated tick attachment duration: 2.0% (95%CI 1.3%-2.8%) after <12 hours, to 5.2% (95%CI 3.0%-8.9%) after ≥4 days;- Detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in ticks: 6.7% (95%CI 3.6%-13.5%), versus 1.4% (95%CI 0.7%-2.9%) when ticks tested negative.The highest observed risk of Lyme borreliosis was 14.4% (95%CI 6.8%-24.6%) after one tick bite of a substantially engorged tick that tested positive for Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA, which corresponds to one new case of Lyme borreliosis per 7 (95%CI 4-15) of such tick bites. An individual's risk of Lyme borreliosis after a tick bite can be predicted with tick engorgement, patient-estimated duration of tick attachment, and detection of Borrelia burgdorferi s.l. DNA in the tick.

Breast Cancer Disparities in South Carolina: Early Detection, Special Programs, and Descriptive Epidemiology

PubMed Central

Adams, Swann Arp; Hebert, James R.; Bolick-Aldrich, Susan; Daguise, Virginie G.; Mosley, Catishia M.; Modayil, Mary V.; Berger, Sondra H.; Teas, Jane; Mitas, Michael; Cunningham, Joan E.; Steck, Susan E.; Burch, James; Butler, William M.; Horner, Marie-Josephe D.; Brandt, Heather M.

2010-01-01

Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women,1 and risk increases substantially with age.2 It is the second leading cause of cancer death among women in South Carolina and in the United States (U.S.). In South Carolina, European-American women are more likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer than are African-American women (see Figure 1);3 however, African-American women are more likely to die from breast cancer than are European-American women (see Figure 2).4 Although breast cancer can occur in men, women are at a much (≈100-fold) higher risk of developing breast cancer. PMID:17319236

Improving risk prediction accuracy for new soldiers in the U.S. Army by adding self-report survey data to administrative data.

PubMed

Bernecker, Samantha L; Rosellini, Anthony J; Nock, Matthew K; Chiu, Wai Tat; Gutierrez, Peter M; Hwang, Irving; Joiner, Thomas E; Naifeh, James A; Sampson, Nancy A; Zaslavsky, Alan M; Stein, Murray B; Ursano, Robert J; Kessler, Ronald C

2018-04-03

High rates of mental disorders, suicidality, and interpersonal violence early in the military career have raised interest in implementing preventive interventions with high-risk new enlistees. The Army Study to Assess Risk and Resilience in Servicemembers (STARRS) developed risk-targeting systems for these outcomes based on machine learning methods using administrative data predictors. However, administrative data omit many risk factors, raising the question whether risk targeting could be improved by adding self-report survey data to prediction models. If so, the Army may gain from routinely administering surveys that assess additional risk factors. The STARRS New Soldier Survey was administered to 21,790 Regular Army soldiers who agreed to have survey data linked to administrative records. As reported previously, machine learning models using administrative data as predictors found that small proportions of high-risk soldiers accounted for high proportions of negative outcomes. Other machine learning models using self-report survey data as predictors were developed previously for three of these outcomes: major physical violence and sexual violence perpetration among men and sexual violence victimization among women. Here we examined the extent to which this survey information increases prediction accuracy, over models based solely on administrative data, for those three outcomes. We used discrete-time survival analysis to estimate a series of models predicting first occurrence, assessing how model fit improved and concentration of risk increased when adding the predicted risk score based on survey data to the predicted risk score based on administrative data. The addition of survey data improved prediction significantly for all outcomes. In the most extreme case, the percentage of reported sexual violence victimization among the 5% of female soldiers with highest predicted risk increased from 17.5% using only administrative predictors to 29.4% adding survey predictors, a 67.9% proportional increase in prediction accuracy. Other proportional increases in concentration of risk ranged from 4.8% to 49.5% (median = 26.0%). Data from an ongoing New Soldier Survey could substantially improve accuracy of risk models compared to models based exclusively on administrative predictors. Depending upon the characteristics of interventions used, the increase in targeting accuracy from survey data might offset survey administration costs.

Projected cancer risks potentially related to past, current, and future practices in paediatric CT in the United Kingdom, 1990–2020

PubMed Central

Journy, Neige M Y; Lee, Choonsik; Harbron, Richard W; McHugh, Kieran; Pearce, Mark S; Berrington de González, Amy

2017-01-01

Background: To project risks of developing cancer and the number of cases potentially induced by past, current, and future computed tomography (CT) scans performed in the United Kingdom in individuals aged <20 years. Methods: Organ doses were estimated from surveys of individual scan parameters and CT protocols used in the United Kingdom. Frequencies of scans were estimated from the NHS Diagnostic Imaging Dataset. Excess lifetime risks (ELRs) of radiation-related cancer were calculated as cumulative lifetime risks, accounting for survival probabilities, using the RadRAT risk assessment tool. Results: In 2000–2008, ELRs ranged from 0.3 to 1 per 1000 head scans and 1 to 5 per 1000 non-head scans. ELRs per scan were reduced by 50–70% in 2000–2008 compared with 1990–1995, subsequent to dose reduction over time. The 130 750 scans performed in 2015 in the United Kingdom were projected to induce 64 (90% uncertainty interval (UI): 38–113) future cancers. Current practices would lead to about 300 (90% UI: 230–680) future cancers induced by scans performed in 2016–2020. Conclusions: Absolute excess risks from single exposures would be low compared with background risks, but even small increases in annual CT rates over the next years would substantially increase the number of potential subsequent cancers. PMID:27824812

The risk of cancer in recipients of living-donor, standard and expanded criteria deceased donor kidney transplants: a registry analysis.

PubMed

Ma, Maggie K M; Lim, Wai H; Turner, Robin M; Chapman, Jeremy R; Craig, Jonathan C; Wong, Germaine

2014-12-27

Kidneys from expanded criteria deceased donors may elicit a strong inflammatory response, predisposing recipients to an increased risk of cancer after transplantation. We aimed to determine the association between donor types and cancer risk after kidney transplantation. Using the Australian and New Zealand Dialysis and Transplant Registry, we assessed the association between different donor types (living donor, standard, and expanded criteria deceased donors) and the risk of cancer after kidney transplantation using adjusted Cox proportional hazard and competing risk models. Over a median follow-up period of 4.4 years in 7,040 patients (34,684 patient-years), 468 patients (6.6%) developed cancer. The overall risks for cancer were 1,080, 1,444, and 2,018 per 100,000 patient-years for recipients of living donor, standard, and expanded criteria deceased donor kidneys, respectively. Compared to recipients of living-donor kidneys, recipients of expanded criteria deceased donor kidneys were at an increased risk of cancer (adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.52; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.15-2.02; P = 0.004), particularly for genitourinary cancer (adjusted HR, 1.79; 95% CI, 1.03-3.10; P = 0.038) and post-transplant lymphoproliferative disease (adjusted HR, 2.72; 95% CI, 1.38-5.37; P = 0.004). Recipients of expanded criteria deceased donor kidneys are at substantially increased risk of cancer, especially cancers with a viral etiology. Allocation of expanded criteria deceased donor kidneys to potential recipients should balance the harms, such as the excess risk of cancer against the survival gains and quality-of-life benefits associated with transplantation.

Executive functioning, concern about falling and quadriceps strength mediate the relationship between impaired gait adaptability and fall risk in older people.

PubMed

Caetano, Maria Joana D; Lord, Stephen R; Brodie, Matthew A; Schoene, Daniel; Pelicioni, Paulo H S; Sturnieks, Daina L; Menant, Jasmine C

2018-01-01

Reduced ability to adapt gait, particularly under challenging conditions, may be an important reason why older adults have an increased risk of falling. This study aimed to identify cognitive, psychological and physical mediators of the relationship between impaired gait adaptability and fall risk in older adults. Fifty healthy older adults (mean±SD: 74±7years) were categorised as high or low fall risk, based on past falls and their performance in the Physiological Profile Assessment. High and low-risk groups were then compared in the gait adaptability test, i.e. an assessment of the ability to adapt gait in response to obstacles and stepping targets under single and dual task conditions. Quadriceps strength, concern about falling and executive function were also measured. The older adults who made errors on the gait adaptability test were 4.76 (95%CI=1.08-20.91) times more likely to be at high risk of falling. Furthermore, each standard deviation reduction in gait speed while approaching the targets/obstacle increased the odds of being at high risk of falling approximately three fold: single task - OR=3.10,95%CI=1.43-6.73; dual task - 3.42,95%CI=1.56-7.52. Executive functioning, concern about falling and quadriceps strength substantially mediated the relationship between the gait adaptability measures and fall risk status. Impaired gait adaptability is associated with high risk of falls in older adults. Reduced executive function, increased concern about falling and weaker quadriceps strength contribute significantly to this relationship. Training gait adaptability directly, as well as addressing the above mediators through cognitive, behavioural and physical training may maximise fall prevention efficacy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A free and open source QGIS plugin for flood risk analysis: FloodRisk

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Albano, Raffaele; Sole, Aurelia; Mancusi, Leonardo

2016-04-01

An analysis of global statistics shows a substantial increase in flood damage over the past few decades. Moreover, it is expected that flood risk will continue to rise due to the combined effect of increasing numbers of people and economic assets in risk-prone areas and the effects of climate change. In order to increase the resilience of European economies and societies, the improvement of risk assessment and management has been pursued in the last years. This results in a wide range of flood analysis models of different complexities with substantial differences in underlying components needed for its implementation, as geographical, hydrological and social differences demand specific approaches in the different countries. At present, it is emerging the need of promote the creation of open, transparent, reliable and extensible tools for a comprehensive, context-specific and applicable flood risk analysis. In this context, the free and open-source Quantum GIS (QGIS) plugin "FloodRisk" is a good starting point to address this objective. The vision of the developers of this free and open source software (FOSS) is to combine the main features of state-of-the-art science, collaboration, transparency and interoperability in an initiative to assess and communicate flood risk worldwide and to assist authorities to facilitate the quality and fairness of flood risk management at multiple scales. Among the scientific community, this type of activity can be labelled as "participatory research", intended as adopting a set of techniques that "are interactive and collaborative" and reproducible, "providing a meaningful research experience that both promotes learning and generates knowledge and research data through a process of guided discovery"' (Albano et al., 2015). Moreover, this FOSS geospatial approach can lowering the financial barriers to understanding risks at national and sub-national levels through a spatio-temporal domain and can provide better and more complete information and to generate knowledge in the stakeholders for improving flood risk management. In particular, Floodrisk comprises a set of calculators capable of computing human or economic losses for a collection of assets, caused by a given scenario event, explicitly covering mitigation and adaptation measures (Mancusi et al., 2015). It is important to mention that despite the fact that some literature models incorporates calculator philosophies identical to the ones implemented in the FloodRisk engine, its implementation might vary significantly, such as the need for a user-friendly and intuitive user interface, or the capability of running the calculations on any platform (Windows, Mac, Linux, etc.), the ability to promotes extensibility, efficient testability, and scientific operability. FloodRisk has been designed as an initiative for implemented a standard and harmonized procedure to determine the flood impacts. Albano, R.; Mancusi, L.; Sole, A.; Adamowski, J. Collaborative Strategies for Sustainable EU Flood Risk Management: FOSS and Geospatial Tools - Challenges and Opportunities for Operative Risk Analysis. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf. 2015, 4, 2704-2727. Mancusi, L., Albano, R., Sole, A.. FloodRisk: a QGIS plugin for flood consequences estimation, In: Geomatics Workbooks n°12 - FOSS4G Europe Como, 2015

Environmental and economic factors can increase the risk of exotic species introductions to the Arctic region through increased ballast water discharge.

PubMed

Niimi, Arthur J

2004-05-01

The effects of global warming can increase the risk of exotic species introductions in eastern Canadian Arctic waters by reducing surface ice cover and allow increased access to commercial vessels. Ballast water discharged by incoming overseas vessels is an important means for introducing species on a global scale. Analyses of air temperatures at Churchill, Manitoba between 1943 and 2002 indicated an increase in mean temperature within the past decade. Churchill is the only major northern port in this region where grain has been exported on a limited basis due to the short navigation season. Economic analyses of grain exported from Canadian and U.S. ports indicated some cost advantages for using northern ports. The Hudson Bay region is vulnerable to increased exotic species introductions because of its southerly location. Current ballast water exchange measures to reduce the risk of introductions may not be effective because most vessels enter the region with ballast, and the ballast exchange zone is located relatively close to coastal areas where the habitat could be favorable for an introduced species to become established. The probability of a large crab species introduced to this region from northern European waters is discussed. The risk of ballast water-related exotic species introduction to this region may be reduced by expanding the types of cargo handled and developing a strong import market. This approach would accommodate an increase in the number of vessels with cargo, and substantially reduce the volume of ballast carried to this region.

Development assistance for health: should policy-makers worry about its macroeconomic impact?

PubMed

Cavagnero, Eleonora; Lane, Christopher; Evans, David B; Carrin, Guy

2008-11-01

Many low-income countries need to substantially increase expenditure to meet universal coverage goals for essential health services but, because they have very low-incomes, most will be unable to raise adequate funds exclusively from domestic sources in the short to medium term. Increased aid for health will be required. However, there has long been a concern that the rapid arrival of large amounts of foreign exchange in a country could lead to an increase in inflation and loss of international competitiveness, with an adverse impact on exports and economic growth, an economic phenomenon termed 'Dutch disease'. We review cross-country and country-level empirical studies and propose a simple framework to gauge the extent of macroeconomic risks. Of the 15 low-income countries that are increasing aid-financed health spending, 7 have high macroeconomic risks that may constrain the sustained expansion of spending. These conditions also apply in one-quarter of the 42 countries not presently increasing spending. Health authorities should be aware of the multiple risk factors at play, including factors that are health-sector specific and others that generally are not. They should also realize that there are effective means for mitigating the risk of Dutch disease associated with increasing development assistance for health. International partners also have an important role to play since more sustainable and predictable flows of donor funding will allow more productivity enhancing investment in physical and human capital, which will also contribute to ensuring there are few harmful macroeconomic effects of increases in aid.

Targeting condom distribution at high risk places increases condom utilization-evidence from an intervention study in Livingstone, Zambia

PubMed Central

2012-01-01

Background The PLACE-method presumes that targeting HIV preventive activities at high risk places is effective in settings with major epidemics. Livingstone, Zambia, has a major HIV epidemic despite many preventive efforts in the city. A baseline survey conducted in 2005 in places where people meet new sexual partners found high partner turnover and unprotected sex to be common among guests. In addition, there were major gaps in on-site condom availability. This study aimed to assess the impact of a condom distribution and peer education intervention targeting places where people meet new sexual partners on condom use and sexual risk taking among people socializing there. Methods The 2005 baseline survey assessed the presence of HIV preventive activities and sexual risk taking in places where people meet new sexual partners in Livingstone. One township was selected for a non-randomised intervention study on condom distribution and peer education in high risk venues in 2009. The presence of HIV preventive activities in the venues during the intervention was monitored by an external person. The intervention was evaluated after one year with a follow-up survey in the intervention township and a comparison township. In addition, qualitative interviews and focus group discussions were conducted. Results Young people between 17-32 years of age were recruited as peer educators, and 40% were females. Out of 72 persons trained before the intervention, 38 quit, and another 11 had to be recruited. The percentage of venues where condoms were reported to always be available at least doubled in both townships, but was significantly higher in the intervention vs. the control venues in both surveys (84% vs. 33% in the follow-up). There was a reduction in reported sexual risk taking among guests socializing in the venues in both areas, but reporting of recent condom use increased more among people interviewed in the intervention (57% to 84%) than in the control community (55% to 68%). Conclusions It is likely that the substantial increase in reported condom use in the intervention venues was partially due to the condom distribution and peer education intervention targeting these places. However, substantial changes were observed also in the comparison community over the five year period, and this indicates that major changes had occurred in overall risk taking among people socializing in venues where people meet new sexual partners in Livingstone. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01423357. PMID:22221738

Targeting condom distribution at high risk places increases condom utilization-evidence from an intervention study in Livingstone, Zambia.

PubMed

Sandøy, Ingvild Fossgard; Zyaambo, Cosmas; Michelo, Charles; Fylkesnes, Knut

2012-01-05

The PLACE-method presumes that targeting HIV preventive activities at high risk places is effective in settings with major epidemics. Livingstone, Zambia, has a major HIV epidemic despite many preventive efforts in the city. A baseline survey conducted in 2005 in places where people meet new sexual partners found high partner turnover and unprotected sex to be common among guests. In addition, there were major gaps in on-site condom availability. This study aimed to assess the impact of a condom distribution and peer education intervention targeting places where people meet new sexual partners on condom use and sexual risk taking among people socializing there. The 2005 baseline survey assessed the presence of HIV preventive activities and sexual risk taking in places where people meet new sexual partners in Livingstone. One township was selected for a non-randomised intervention study on condom distribution and peer education in high risk venues in 2009. The presence of HIV preventive activities in the venues during the intervention was monitored by an external person. The intervention was evaluated after one year with a follow-up survey in the intervention township and a comparison township. In addition, qualitative interviews and focus group discussions were conducted. Young people between 17-32 years of age were recruited as peer educators, and 40% were females. Out of 72 persons trained before the intervention, 38 quit, and another 11 had to be recruited. The percentage of venues where condoms were reported to always be available at least doubled in both townships, but was significantly higher in the intervention vs. the control venues in both surveys (84% vs. 33% in the follow-up). There was a reduction in reported sexual risk taking among guests socializing in the venues in both areas, but reporting of recent condom use increased more among people interviewed in the intervention (57% to 84%) than in the control community (55% to 68%). It is likely that the substantial increase in reported condom use in the intervention venues was partially due to the condom distribution and peer education intervention targeting these places. However, substantial changes were observed also in the comparison community over the five year period, and this indicates that major changes had occurred in overall risk taking among people socializing in venues where people meet new sexual partners in Livingstone. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01423357.

Perceived sex discrimination amplifies the effect of antagonism on cigarette smoking.

PubMed

Sutin, Angelina R; English, Devin; Evans, Michele K; Zonderman, Alan B

2014-06-01

Compared to men, the decline in smoking during the past few decades has been slower for women, and smoking-related morbidity and mortality has increased substantially. Identifying sex-specific risk factors will inform more targeted intervention/prevention efforts. The purpose of this research is to examine the interactive effect of psychological (trait antagonism) and social (perceived sex discrimination) factors on current cigarette smoking and whether these effects differ by sex. Participants in the Healthy Aging in Neighborhoods of Diversity across the Life Span study (HANDLS; N = 454) and participants in the Health and Retirement Study (HRS; N = 8,155) completed measures of antagonism, perceived sex discrimination, and reported whether they smoked currently. Logistic regressions were used to predict smoking from antagonism, discrimination, and their interaction. Antagonism was associated with an increased risk of smoking. For women, there was an interaction between antagonism and discrimination: among women who perceived sex discrimination, every standard deviation increase in antagonism was associated with a 2.5 increased risk of current smoking in HANDLS (odds ratio [OR] = 2.54, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.46-4.39) and an almost 1.5 increased risk in HRS (OR = 1.43, 95% CI = 1.18-1.73). This interaction was not significant for men in either sample. In 2 independent samples, perceived sex discrimination amplified the effect of antagonism on cigarette smoking for women but not men. A hostile disposition and a perceived hostile social environment have a synergistic effect on current cigarette smoking for women.

Increased risk of lung cancer among male professional drivers in urban but not rural areas of Sweden.

PubMed Central

Jakobsson, R; Gustavsson, P; Lundberg, I

1997-01-01

OBJECTIVES: To study the risk of lung cancer in different subgroups of professional drivers in urban and rural areas of Sweden. METHODS: Information on occupation and geographical region was obtained from the Swedish census of 1970 and data on the incidence of lung cancer between 1971 and 1984 from the National Swedish Cancer Registry. Professional drivers were separated into bus, taxi, and long and short distance lorry drivers. Comparisons of cumulative incidence of lung cancer were made between each particular group of drivers and gainfully employed men in the same region. RESULTS: Taxi drivers, and long and short distance lorry drivers in Stockholm County showed increased relative risks (RRs) of lung cancer with the highest risk among the short distance lorry drivers (RR 2.0, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.5 to 2.6). These categories of drivers also showed increased risks in the other two large conurbations in Sweden. In the rest of the country (mainly rural areas) there were no increased RRs for any category of driver. The RR for bus drivers was not increased in any region. After adjustment for assumed differences in smoking habits the RRs remained significantly increased for lorry drivers in Stockholm but not for other groups of drivers in other areas. However, the RRs remained numerically higher in large conurbations than in rural regions for all groups of drivers. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that some factors present in the urban environment play a substantial part in the excess of lung cancer among short distance lorry drivers in urban areas of Sweden. Exposure to motor exhaust fumes may have contributed to this excess. PMID:9155780

A shift from motorised travel to active transport: What are the potential health gains for an Australian city?

PubMed

Zapata-Diomedi, Belen; Knibbs, Luke D; Ware, Robert S; Heesch, Kristiann C; Tainio, Marko; Woodcock, James; Veerman, J Lennert

2017-01-01

An alarmingly high proportion of the Australian adult population does not meet national physical activity guidelines (57%). This is concerning because physical inactivity is a risk factor for several chronic diseases. In recent years, an increasing emphasis has been placed on the potential for transport and urban planning to contribute to increased physical activity via greater uptake of active transport (walking, cycling and public transport). In this study, we aimed to estimate the potential health gains and savings in health care costs of an Australian city achieving its stated travel targets for the use of active transport. Additional active transport time was estimated for the hypothetical scenario of Brisbane (1.1 million population 2013) in Australia achieving specified travel targets. A multi-state life table model was used to estimate the number of health-adjusted life years, life-years, changes in the burden of diseases and injuries, and the health care costs associated with changes in physical activity, fine particle (<2.5 μm; PM2.5) exposure, and road trauma attributable to a shift from motorised travel to active transport. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to test alternative modelling assumptions. Over the life course of the Brisbane adult population in 2013 (860,000 persons), 33,000 health-adjusted life years could be gained if the travel targets were achieved by 2026. This was mainly due to lower risks of physical inactivity-related diseases, with life course reductions in prevalence and mortality risk in the range of 1.5%-6.0%. Prevalence and mortality of respiratory diseases increased slightly (≥0.27%) due to increased exposure of larger numbers of cyclists and pedestrians to fine particles. The burden of road trauma increased by 30% for mortality and 7% for years lived with disability. We calculated substantial net savings ($AU183 million, 2013 values) in health care costs. In cities, such as Brisbane, where over 80% of trips are made by private cars, shifts towards walking, cycling and public transport would cause substantial net health benefits and savings in health care costs. However, for such shifts to occur, investments are needed to ensure safe and convenient travel.

Confounding of the Association between Radiation Exposure from CT Scans and Risk of Leukemia and Brain Tumors by Cancer Susceptibility Syndromes.

PubMed

Meulepas, Johanna M; Ronckers, Cécile M; Merks, Johannes; Weijerman, Michel E; Lubin, Jay H; Hauptmann, Michael

2016-01-01

Recent studies linking radiation exposure from pediatric computed tomography (CT) to increased risks of leukemia and brain tumors lacked data to control for cancer susceptibility syndromes (CSS). These syndromes might be confounders because they are associated with an increased cancer risk and may increase the likelihood of CT scans performed in children. We identify CSS predisposing to leukemia and brain tumors through a systematic literature search and summarize prevalence and risk estimates. Because there is virtually no empirical evidence in published literature on patterns of CT use for most types of CSS, we estimate confounding bias of relative risks (RR) for categories of radiation exposure based on expert opinion about the current and previous patterns of CT scans among CSS patients. We estimate that radiation-related RRs for leukemia are not meaningfully confounded by Down syndrome, Noonan syndrome, or other CSS. In contrast, RRs for brain tumors may be overestimated due to confounding by tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC) while von Hippel-Lindau disease, neurofibromatosis type 1, or other CSS do not meaningfully confound. Empirical data on the use of CT scans among CSS patients are urgently needed. Our assessment indicates that associations with leukemia reported in previous studies are unlikely to be substantially confounded by unmeasured CSS, whereas brain tumor risks might have been overestimated due to confounding by TSC. Future studies should identify TSC patients in order to avoid overestimation of brain tumor risks due to radiation exposure from CT scans. ©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.

Impacts of climate change on heat-related mortality risk across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moradkhani, H.; Ahmadalipour, A.

2017-12-01

It has been reported that even if the global mean temperature increase is limited to 2°C, warming over land will be far beyond that in many regions. Global climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and extreme high temperatures, which will in turn have severe impacts on human life. In this study, the mortality risk caused by excessive heat stress is investigated. Daily maximum air temperature and relative humidity are acquired from 17 CMIP5 Regional Climate Models (RCMs) developed by CORDEX at 0.44 degree spatial resolution. Then, the daily wet-bulb temperature is calculated and a recently developed health risk model is implemented to quantify the mortality risk. The study is applied over the latitudes 6.6°S-42°N and longitudes 20°W-60°E covering parts of 70 countries and accommodating over 600 million inhabitants. The analysis is performed for the historical period of 1951-2005 as well as two future scenarios of RCP4.5 (moderate) and RCP8.5 (business as usual) during 2006-2100. Results indicate about 5 to 30 times higher mortality risk in distant future compared to the historical period. The most aggravation of mortality risk over land is found at the southwestern regions of MENA, due to substantial increase in frequency and intensity of extreme temperatures. Mortality risk is found to be much higher over open waters and coastal regions due to abundant humidity, especially in the coastal regions of the Red sea and Persian Gulf.

Prenatal folic acid and risk of asthma in children: a systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Crider, Krista S; Cordero, Amy M; Qi, Yan Ping; Mulinare, Joseph; Dowling, Nicole F; Berry, Robert J

2016-01-01

Background Childhood asthma has become a critical public health problem because of its high morbidity and increasing prevalence. The impact of nutrition and other exposures during pregnancy on long-term health and development of children has been of increasing interest. Objective We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of the association of folate and folic acid intake during pregnancy and risk of asthma and other allergic outcomes in children. Design We performed a systematic search of 8 electronic databases for articles that examined the association between prenatal folate or folic acid exposure and risk of asthma and other allergic outcomes (eg, allergy, eczema, and atopic dermatitis) in childhood. We performed a meta-analysis by using a random-effects model to derive a summary risk estimate of studies with similar exposure timing, exposure assessment, and outcomes. Results Our meta-analysis provided no evidence of an association between maternal folic acid supplement use (compared with no use) in the prepregnancy period through the first trimester and asthma in childhood (summary risk estimate: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.78, 1.30). Because of substantial heterogeneity in exposures and outcomes, it was not possible to generate summary measures for other folate indicators (eg, blood folate concentrations) and asthma or allergy-related outcomes; however, the preponderance of primary risk estimates was not elevated. Conclusions Our findings do not support an association between periconceptional folic acid supplementation and increased risk of asthma in children. However, because of the limited number and types of studies in the literature, additional research is needed. PMID:24004895

Sexually transmitted infections clinics as strategic venues for targeting high risk populations for HIV research and sexual health interventions.

PubMed

Clatts, Michael C; Rodríguez-Díaz, Carlos E; García, Hermes; Vargas-Molina, Ricardo L; Colón-López, Vivian; Pérez-Rios, Naydi; Goldsamt, Lloyd; Jovet-Toledo, Gerardo G

2011-09-01

Puerto Rico has one of the highest incidence rates of HIV in the U.S. Concurrent with increases in sexually transmitted infections (STI), an increasing share of the new infections in PR are associated with sexual transmission. Much of the available research on sexual risk in PR derives from STI/HIV surveillance data. There is limited social and epidemiological research on sexual risk in PR, particularly in hidden and often hard-to-reach populations at high risk. Despite the absence of substantial resources that most epidemiological studies require, a research collaboration was initiated in 2007 between researchers in the School of Public Health at the University of Puerto Rico and the Centro Latinoamericano de Enfermedades de Transmisión Sexual (CLETS), one of the largest publicly funded centers for STI/HIV screening and treatment in the San Juan metropolitan area. Structured as a case study in the development of community-based research collaborations, this paper describes the early history and development of the project, including formative research, recruitment and training of students, and evolution in the study design that contributed to the current configuration of the ongoing "Core" study. Preliminary data are presented, highlighting data from a number of subpopulations that may contribute to our understanding of the role of behavioral risk in the STI/HIV epidemics in PR. More generally, the paper may guide the development of similar collaboration elsewhere in the Caribbean where HIV risk is increasing but where resources for research in high risk settings and groups are scarce.

Modifiable health risks in Atlantic Canadian employees: a 5-year report.

PubMed

Makrides, L; Sawatzky, C; Petrie, J; Veinot, P

2010-12-01

A number of modifiable health risks, such as smoking, inactivity and obesity have been linked to increased employer costs, including decreased productivity and increased absenteeism and health claims. The purpose of this paper is to report on the health profile and prevalence of modifiable health risks in an Atlantic Canadian Employee Database. Data were collected over a 5-year period (2001-2006) by the Atlantic Health and Wellness Institute, the research arm of Creative Wellness Solutions, in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada. Each employee of 51 workplaces (n = 6067; 2665 males, 3402 females; average age 41.3 years) completed a Health Risk Assessment questionnaire on smoking, nutrition and physical activity behaviours. Clinical data measurements were blood pressure, blood cholesterol, weight and height. Data were compared for private, public and health sectors. Sixteen percent had elevated blood pressure (≥ 140/90 mmHg), 20% smoked cigarettes, 70% were overweight [body mass index (BMI) ≥ 25 kg/m(2)], 31% were obese (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m(2)), 38% had elevated non-fasting cholesterol levels (≥ 5.20 mmol/l) and 49% were inactive (<20-30 min, three to five times per week). Moreover, 50% had two to four major modifiable health risks (i.e. daily tobacco smoking, physical inactivity, overweight and high blood pressure). Health care sector employees were healthier overall, but there was substantial room for improvement. The present analysis identified an alarming prevalence of modifiable health risks in Atlantic Canadian employees. Workplaces need to invest in workplace wellness to reduce the risks and promote better health among employees, thus increasing productivity and decreasing the financial burden on employers.

Exploring the Determinants of the Perceived Risk of Food Allergies in Canada

PubMed Central

Harrington, Daniel W.; Elliott, Susan J.; Clarke, Ann E.; Ben-Shoshan, Moshe; Godefroy, Samuel

2012-01-01

Food allergies are emerging health risks in much of the Western world, and some evidence suggests prevalence is increasing. Despite lacking scientific consensus around prevalence and management, policies and regulations are being implemented in public spaces (e.g., schools). These policies have been criticized as extreme in the literature, in the media, and by the non-allergic population. Backlash appears to be resulting from different perceptions of risk between different groups. This article uses a recently assembled national dataset (n = 3,666) to explore how Canadians perceive the risks of food allergy. Analyses revealed that almost 20% self-report having an allergic person in the household, while the average respondent estimated the prevalence of food allergies in Canada to be 30%. Both of these measures overestimate the true clinically defined prevalence (7.5%), indicating an inflated public understanding of the risks of food allergies. Seventy percent reported food allergies to be substantial risks to the Canadian population. Multivariate logistic regression models revealed important determinants of risk perception including demographic, experience-based, attitudinal, and regional predictors. Results are discussed in terms of understanding emerging health risks in the post-industrial era, and implications for both policy and risk communication. PMID:23172987

Epidemiology of venous thromboembolism

PubMed Central

Heit, John A.

2015-01-01

Thrombosis can affect any venous circulation. Venous thromboembolism (VTE) includes deep-vein thrombosis of the leg or pelvis, and its complication, pulmonary embolism. VTE is a fairly common disease, particularly in older age, and is associated with reduced survival, substantial health-care costs, and a high rate of recurrence. VTE is a complex (multifactorial) disease, involving interactions between acquired or inherited predispositions to thrombosis and various risk factors. Major risk factors for incident VTE include hospitalization for surgery or acute illness, active cancer, neurological disease with leg paresis, nursing-home confinement, trauma or fracture, superficial vein thrombosis, and—in women—pregnancy and puerperium, oral contraception, and hormone therapy. Although independent risk factors for incident VTE and predictors of VTE recurrence have been identified, and effective primary and secondary prophylaxis is available, the occurrence of VTE seems to be fairly constant, or even increasing. PMID:26076949

Epidemiology of venous thromboembolism.

PubMed

Heit, John A

2015-08-01

Thrombosis can affect any venous circulation. Venous thromboembolism (VTE) includes deep-vein thrombosis of the leg or pelvis, and its complication, pulmonary embolism. VTE is a fairly common disease, particularly in older age, and is associated with reduced survival, substantial health-care costs, and a high rate of recurrence. VTE is a complex (multifactorial) disease, involving interactions between acquired or inherited predispositions to thrombosis and various risk factors. Major risk factors for incident VTE include hospitalization for surgery or acute illness, active cancer, neurological disease with leg paresis, nursing-home confinement, trauma or fracture, superficial vein thrombosis, and-in women-pregnancy and puerperium, oral contraception, and hormone therapy. Although independent risk factors for incident VTE and predictors of VTE recurrence have been identified, and effective primary and secondary prophylaxis is available, the occurrence of VTE seems to be fairly constant, or even increasing.

The Case for Lung Cancer Screening: What Nurses Need to Know.

PubMed

Sorrie, Kerrin; Cates, Lisa; Hill, Alethea

2016-06-01

Lung cancer screening with low-dose helical computed tomography (LDCT) can improve high-risk individuals' chances of being diagnosed at an earlier stage and increase survival. The aims of this article are to present the risk factors associated with the development of lung cancer, identify patients at high risk for lung cancer qualifying for LDCT screening, and understand the importance of early lung cancer detection through the use of LDCT screening. PubMed and CINAHL® databases were searched with key words lung cancer screening to identify full-text academic articles from 2004-2014. This resulted in 529 articles from PubMed and 195 from CINAHL. PubMed offered suggestions for additional relevant journal articles. The National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines also provided substantial evidence-based information. Nurses need to provide support, education, and resources for patients undergoing lung cancer screening.

Bridging the Gap: Racial concordance as a strategy to increase African American participation in breast cancer research.

PubMed

Frierson, Georita M; Pinto, Bernardine M; Denman, Deanna C; Leon, Pierre A; Jaffe, Alex D

2017-11-01

Lack of African American females in breast cancer research has been receiving substantial attention. This study seeks to identify research perceptions and motivating factors needed to increase racial/ethnic minority participation in breast cancer research. A total of 57 African American women (Σ = 47.8 years), from Rhode Island and Texas, completed a questionnaire and focus group. While many participants were not breast cancer survivors, they reported knowledge of their racial group's risk for breast cancer. One major finding that could be seen as both a facilitator and barrier is racial concordance between participant and researcher. Cultural sensitivity and trust building is recommended to increase minority participation.

Time course and prognostic value of plasma levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide in patients after ischemic stroke.

PubMed

Yip, Hon-Kan; Sun, Cheuk-Kwan; Chang, Li-Teh; Chen, Mien-Cheng; Liou, Chia-Wei

2006-04-01

The association between plasma levels of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and prognostic outcomes in patients after ischemic stroke remains unknown. The present study tested the hypothesis that NT-proBNP level is noticeably increased after ischemic stroke and that elevated NT-proBNP is associated with unfavorable clinical outcomes (UFCO). Blood samples for NT-proBNP levels were collected serially and examined with sandwich immunoassay after acute ischemic stroke in 86 consecutive patients. The NT-proBNP levels were also measured in 30 healthy control volunteers and 30 at-risk control subjects. The NT-proBNP levels were significantly higher at 4 intervals after ischemic stroke than in healthy and at-risk control subjects (all p<0.001). The NT-proBNP decreased to a significantly lower level on day 21 and to a substantially lower level on day 90. Additionally, the NT-proBNP level at any of the 4 intervals was significantly higher in patients with than in patients without UFCO (defined as combined congestive heart failure > or = class 3, acute myocardial infarction, recurrent stroke or any cause of death) (all p<0.01). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that age and NIH Stroke Scale were the 2 strongest independent predictors of increased NT-proBNP levels (all p<0.01). Furthermore, increased NT-proBNP (> or = 150 pg/ml) was the strongest independent predictor of long-term (mean follow-up: 24 months) UFCO (26 patients) (all p<0.05). The NT-proBNP level was markedly elevated after acute ischemic stroke and declined substantially thereafter. An increased NT-proBNP level was strongly and independently correlated with UFCO in patients after ischemic stroke.

Predictive value of early changes in triglycerides and weight for longer-term changes in metabolic measures during olanzapine, ziprasidone or aripiprazole treatment for schizophrenia and schizoaffective disorder post hoc analyses of 3 randomized, controlled clinical trials.

PubMed

Hoffmann, Vicki P; Case, Michael; Stauffer, Virginia L; Jacobson, Jennie G; Conley, Robert R

2010-12-01

The objective of this study was to determine if early changes in triglycerides and weight may be useful in predicting longer-term changes in weight and other metabolic parameters. Data were from three 24- to 28-week randomized, controlled studies comparing olanzapine to ziprasidone or aripiprazole for treatment of schizophrenia. Analyses were restricted to completers with fasting laboratory data at all protocol specified time points. Analyses were primarily descriptive and included mean changes and categorical outcomes. In all treatment groups, participants who did not experience a 20 mg/dL or greater increase in triglycerides at early time points were unlikely to experience a change of 50 mg/dL or more in triglycerides after 6 months. Negative predictive values were 83% to 95%. However, early change in triglycerides was not useful for predicting later change in glucose, cholesterol, or weight. Similarly, early weight change gave robust negative predictive values for longer-term weight change (≥10 kg), but not for change in glucose or cholesterol. Lack of early elevation in triglyceride concentrations was predictive of later lack of substantial increase in triglycerides in olanzapine-, ziprasidone-, and aripiprazole-treated participants. Lack of early elevation in weight was predictive of later lack of substantial increase in weight in all 3 treatment groups. Early monitoring of triglyceride concentrations and weight may help clinicians assess risk that individuals will experience significant increase in triglycerides or weight gain, allowing assessments of potential risks and benefits earlier in treatment. Clinical monitoring is advised throughout treatment for all patients.

The efficiency of cardiovascular risk assessment: do the right patients get statin treatment?

PubMed Central

van Staa, Tjeerd-Pieter; Smeeth, Liam; Ng, Edmond S-W; Goldacre, Ben; Gulliford, Martin

2013-01-01

Objective To evaluate targeting of statin prescribing for primary prevention to those with high cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. Design Two cohort studies including the general population and initiators of statins aged 35–74 years. Setting UK primary care records in the Clinical Practice Research Datalink. Patients 3.8 million general population patients and 300 914 statin users. Intervention Statin prescribing. Main outcome measures Statin prescribing by CVD risk; observed 5-year CVD risks; variability between practices. Results Statin prescribing increased substantially over time to patients with high 10-year CVD risk (≥20%): 7.0% of these received a statin prior to 2007, and 30.4% in 2007 onwards. Prescribing to patients with low risk (<15%) also increased (from 1.9% to 5.0%). Only about half the patients initiating statin treatment were high risk according to CVD risk score. The 5-year CVD risks, as observed during statin treatment, reduced over calendar time (from 17.0% to 7.1%). There was a large variation between general practices in the percentage of high-risk patients prescribed a statin in 2007 onwards, ranging from 8.2% to 61.5%. For low-risk patients, these varied from 2.1% to 29.1%. Conclusions There appeared to be substantive overuse in low CVD risk and underuse in high CVD risk (600 000 and 850 000 patients, respectively, in the UK since 2007). There is wide variation between practices in statin prescribing to patients at high CVD risk. There is a clear need for randomised trials for the best strategy to target statin treatment and manage CVD risk for primary prevention. PMID:23735939

Recommendation of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices for Use of a Third Dose of Mumps Virus-Containing Vaccine in Persons at Increased Risk for Mumps During an Outbreak.

PubMed

Marin, Mona; Marlow, Mariel; Moore, Kelly L; Patel, Manisha

2018-01-12

A substantial increase in the number of mumps outbreaks and outbreak-associated cases has occurred in the United States since late 2015 (1,2). To address this public health problem, the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) reviewed the available evidence and determined that a third dose of measles, mumps, rubella (MMR) vaccine is safe and effective at preventing mumps. During its October 2017 meeting, ACIP recommended a third dose of a mumps virus-containing vaccine* for persons previously vaccinated with 2 doses who are identified by public health authorities as being part of a group or population at increased risk for acquiring mumps because of an outbreak. The purpose of the recommendation is to improve protection of persons in outbreak settings against mumps disease and mumps-related complications. This recommendation supplements the existing ACIP recommendations for mumps vaccination (3).

Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming.

PubMed

Vasseur, David A; DeLong, John P; Gilbert, Benjamin; Greig, Hamish S; Harley, Christopher D G; McCann, Kevin S; Savage, Van; Tunney, Tyler D; O'Connor, Mary I

2014-03-22

Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050-2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance.

Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming

PubMed Central

Vasseur, David A.; DeLong, John P.; Gilbert, Benjamin; Greig, Hamish S.; Harley, Christopher D. G.; McCann, Kevin S.; Savage, Van; Tunney, Tyler D.; O'Connor, Mary I.

2014-01-01

Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated in the near future. Although recent work suggests that changes in temperature variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than changes to the mean, much of climate change research in ecology has focused on the impacts of mean temperature change. Here, we couple fine-grained climate projections (2050–2059) to thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate species and contrast projections with those of a simple model. We show that projections based on mean temperature change alone differ substantially from those incorporating changes to the variation, and to the mean and variation in concert. Although most species show increases in performance at greater mean temperatures, the effect of mean and variance change together yields a range of responses, with temperate species at greatest risk of performance declines. Our work highlights the importance of using fine-grained temporal data to incorporate the full extent of temperature variation when assessing and projecting performance. PMID:24478296

Predicting MCI outcome with clinically available MRI and CSF biomarkers

PubMed Central

Heister, D.; Brewer, J.B.; Magda, S.; Blennow, K.

2011-01-01

Objective: To determine the ability of clinically available volumetric MRI (vMRI) and CSF biomarkers, alone or in combination with a quantitative learning measure, to predict conversion to Alzheimer disease (AD) in patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Methods: We stratified 192 MCI participants into positive and negative risk groups on the basis of 1) degree of learning impairment on the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test; 2) medial temporal atrophy, quantified from Food and Drug Administration–approved software for automated vMRI analysis; and 3) CSF biomarker levels. We also stratified participants based on combinations of risk factors. We computed Cox proportional hazards models, controlling for age, to assess 3-year risk of converting to AD as a function of risk group and used Kaplan-Meier analyses to determine median survival times. Results: When risk factors were examined separately, individuals testing positive showed significantly higher risk of converting to AD than individuals testing negative (hazard ratios [HR] 1.8–4.1). The joint presence of any 2 risk factors substantially increased risk, with the combination of greater learning impairment and increased atrophy associated with highest risk (HR 29.0): 85% of patients with both risk factors converted to AD within 3 years, vs 5% of those with neither. The presence of medial temporal atrophy was associated with shortest median dementia-free survival (15 months). Conclusions: Incorporating quantitative assessment of learning ability along with vMRI or CSF biomarkers in the clinical workup of MCI can provide critical information on risk of imminent conversion to AD. PMID:21998317

Environmental and lifestyle risk factors for oral squamous cell carcinoma in domestic cats.

PubMed

Bertone, Elizabeth R; Snyder, Laura A; Moore, Antony S

2003-01-01

Oral squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) is a common malignancy in cats, but little currently is known about its etiology. We examined the relationship between risk of oral SCC and factors such as environmental tobacco smoke, flea control products, and diet in 36 domestic cats with histologically confirmed oral SCC and 112 renal disease control cats presented to a large veterinary referral hospital between 1994 and 2000. Questionnaires were mailed to owners of all study and control cats to assess demographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, and level of chemical exposures 2 years before diagnosis. Multivariate relative risks (RR) were used to estimate the relationships between the various factors and the risk of oral SCC. Flea control product use and diet were significantly associated with risk of oral SCC. Cats that wore a flea collar had 5 times the risk of oral SCC as nonusers, after adjustment for other factors (RR = 5.3; P = .002). In contrast, use of flea shampoo substantially reduced risk. Compared to cats eating mostly dry food, those with high canned food intake had a 3-fold increase in risk (RR = 3.6; P = .014); canned tuna fish intake was independently associated with risk (RR = 4.7; P = .004). Exposure to household environmental tobacco smoke was associated with a nonsignificant 2-fold increase in risk (P = .11). Results of this study suggest that flea control products, diet, and perhaps environmental tobacco smoke might be associated with risk of oral SCC and indicate that further investigation into these relationships is warranted.

Physiological responses to the menstrual cycle: implications for the development of heat illness in female athletes.

PubMed

Marsh, Susan A; Jenkins, David G

2002-01-01

Fluctuations in estrogen and progesterone during the menstrual cycle can cause changes in body systems other than the reproductive system. For example, progesterone is involved in the regulation of fluid balance in the renal tubules and innervation of the diaphragm via the phrenic nerve. However, few significant changes in the responses of the cardiovascular and respiratory systems, blood lactate, bodyweight, performance and ratings of perceived exertion are evident across the cycle. Nevertheless, substantial evidence exists to suggest that increased progesterone levels during the luteal phase cause increases in both core and skin temperatures and alter the temperature at which sweating begins during exposure to both ambient and hot environments. As heat illness is characterised by a significant increase in body temperature, it is feasible that an additional increase in core temperature during the luteal phase could place females at an increased risk of developing heat illness during this time. In addition, it is often argued that physiological gender differences such as oxygen consumption, percentage body fat and surface area-to-mass ratio place females at a higher risk of heat illness than males. This review examines various physiological responses to heat exposure during the menstrual cycle at rest and during exercise, and considers whether such changes increase the risk of heat illness in female athletes during a particular phase of the menstrual cycle.

Crime and violence in Brazil: Systematic review of time trends, prevalence rates and risk factors☆

PubMed Central

Murray, Joseph; Cerqueira, Daniel Ricardo de Castro; Kahn, Tulio

2013-01-01

Between 1980 and 2010 there were 1 million homicides in Brazil. Dramatic increases in homicide rates followed rises in inequality, more young men in the population, greater availability of firearms, and increased drug use. Nevertheless, disarmament legislation may have helped reduce homicide rates in recent years. Despite its very high rate of lethal violence, Brazil appears to have similar levels of general criminal victimization as several other Latin American and North American countries. Brazil has lower rates of drug use compared to other countries such as the United States, but the prevalence of youth drug use in Brazil has increased substantially in recent years. Since 1990, the growth of the Brazilian prison population has been enormous, resulting in the fourth largest prison population in the world. Through a systematic review of the literature, we identified 10 studies assessing the prevalence of self-reported offending in Brazil and 9 studies examining risk factors. Levels of self-reported offending seem quite high among school students in Brazil. Individual and family-level risk factors identified in Brazil are very similar to those found in high-income countries. PMID:24027422

Comprehensive outreach, prevention education, and skin cancer screening for Utah ski resorts.

PubMed

Varedi, Amir; Secrest, Aaron M; Harding, Garrett; Maness, Lori; Branson, Donna; Smith, Kristi; Hull, Christopher M

2018-02-15

Outdoor recreation can lead to substantial sun exposure. Employees of outdoor recreation establishments with extended time outdoors have amplified cumulative exposure to ultraviolet (UV) radiation and an increased risk of skin cancer. The "Sun Safe on the Slopes" program was created by Huntsman Cancer Institute at the University of Utah and the Utah Cancer Action Network to address increased UV exposure and skin cancer risk with free skin cancer screenings, outreach, and prevention education to local ski resorts. Herein, we describe the processes and barriers to implementation of a ski resort skin screening and education program and our 5-year report of the experience and screening data. Nine free skin cancer screenings were held at Utah ski resorts between 2011 and 2016, resulting in the presumptive diagnosis of 38 skin cancers (9.6%) in 394 participants. Behavioral data collected from participants indicates suboptimal sun safety practices, including underuse of sunscreen and protective clothing. Ski resort employees who experience sun exposure during peak hours at high altitudes and UV reflection from the snow are at an increased risk of skin cancer. These data indicate a need for emphasis on sun safety education and screening and can serve as a model for future endeavors.

Air travel and vector-borne disease movement.

PubMed

Tatem, A J; Huang, Z; Das, A; Qi, Q; Roth, J; Qiu, Y

2012-12-01

Recent decades have seen substantial expansions in the global air travel network and rapid increases in traffic volumes. The effects of this are well studied in terms of the spread of directly transmitted infections, but the role of air travel in the movement of vector-borne diseases is less well understood. Increasingly however, wider reaching surveillance for vector-borne diseases and our improving abilities to map the distributions of vectors and the diseases they carry, are providing opportunities to better our understanding of the impact of increasing air travel. Here we examine global trends in the continued expansion of air transport and its impact upon epidemiology. Novel malaria and chikungunya examples are presented, detailing how geospatial data in combination with information on air traffic can be used to predict the risks of vector-borne disease importation and establishment. Finally, we describe the development of an online tool, the Vector-Borne Disease Airline Importation Risk (VBD-Air) tool, which brings together spatial data on air traffic and vector-borne disease distributions to quantify the seasonally changing risks for importation to non-endemic regions. Such a framework provides the first steps towards an ultimate goal of adaptive management based on near real time flight data and vector-borne disease surveillance.

Neonatal morbidity in moderately preterm infants: a Swedish national population-based study.

PubMed

Altman, Maria; Vanpée, Mireille; Cnattingius, Sven; Norman, Mikael

2011-02-01

To determine the gestational age (GA)-specific risks for neonatal morbidity and use of interventions in infants born at 30 to 34 completed gestational weeks. A population-based Swedish study including 6674 infants born during 2004-2008. Risks for neonatal morbidity and use of interventions were investigated with respect to GA and birth weight standard deviation scores. Acute lung disorder was diagnosed in 28%, hypoglycemia in 16%, bacterial infection in 15% and hyperbilirubinemia in 59% of the infants. Thirty-eight percent had received antenatal steroid therapy, 43% nasal continuous positive airway pressure, 5.5% required mechanical ventilation, 5.2% were treated with surfactant, and 30% with antibiotic therapy. Neonatal morbidity rates increased with decreasing GA, with odds ratios for different outcomes ranging from 2.1 to 23 at 30 weeks compared with 34 weeks of GA. Low birth weight standard deviation scores was more common at lower GA and was associated with increased morbidity rates. Despite general advances in perinatal care, moderately preterm infants still have substantially increased risks for neonatal morbidity. Whereas the neonatal morbidity rate was similar to results of previous reports, management of respiratory problems differed markedly from other studies. Copyright © 2011 Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Prevalence of upper gastrointestinal bleeding risk factors among the general population and osteoarthritis patients.

PubMed

Kim, Sang Hyuck; Yun, Jae Moon; Chang, Chong Bum; Piao, Heng; Yu, Su Jong; Shin, Dong Wook

2016-12-28

To assess the prevalence of possible risk factors of upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) and their age-group specific trend among the general population and osteoarthritis patients. We utilized data from the National Health Insurance Service that included claims data and results of the national health check-up program. Comorbid conditions (peptic ulcer, diabetes, liver disease, chronic renal failure, and gastroesophageal reflux disease), concomitant drugs (aspirin, clopidogrel, cilostazol, non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs, steroid, anticoagulants, and SSRI), personal habits (smoking, and alcohol consumption) were considered as possible UGIB risk factors. We randomly imputed the prevalence of infection in the data considering the age-specific prevalence of Helicobacter pylori ( H. pylori ) infection in Korea. The prevalence of various UGIB risk factors and the age-group specific trend of the prevalence were identified. Prevalence was compared between osteoarthritis patients and others. A total of 801926 subjects (93855 osteoarthritis patients) aged 20 and above were included. The prevalence of individual and concurrent multiple risk factors became higher as the age increased. The prevalence of each comorbid condition and concomitant drug were higher in osteoarthritis patients. Thirty-five point zero two percent of the overall population and 68.50% of osteoarthritis patients had at least one or more risk factors of UGIB. The prevalence of individual and concurrent multiple risk factors in younger age groups were also substantial. Furthermore, when personal habits (smoking, and alcohol consumption) and H. pylori infection were included, the prevalence of concurrent multiple risk factors increased greatly even in younger age groups. Prevalence of UGIB risk factors was high in elderly population, but was also considerable in younger population. Patient with osteoarthritis was at higher UGIB risk than those without osteoarthritis. Physicians should consider individualized risk assessment regardless of age when prescribing drugs or performing procedures that may increase the risk of UGIB, and take necessary measures to reduce modifiable risk factors such as H. pylori eradication or lifestyle counseling.

Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States.

PubMed

Balch, Jennifer K; Bradley, Bethany A; Abatzoglou, John T; Nagy, R Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J; Mahood, Adam L

2017-03-14

The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal "fire niche" in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km 2 , the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km 2 , primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards.

Human-started wildfires expand the fire niche across the United States

PubMed Central

Balch, Jennifer K.; Bradley, Bethany A.; Nagy, R. Chelsea; Fusco, Emily J.; Mahood, Adam L.

2017-01-01

The economic and ecological costs of wildfire in the United States have risen substantially in recent decades. Although climate change has likely enabled a portion of the increase in wildfire activity, the direct role of people in increasing wildfire activity has been largely overlooked. We evaluate over 1.5 million government records of wildfires that had to be extinguished or managed by state or federal agencies from 1992 to 2012, and examined geographic and seasonal extents of human-ignited wildfires relative to lightning-ignited wildfires. Humans have vastly expanded the spatial and seasonal “fire niche” in the coterminous United States, accounting for 84% of all wildfires and 44% of total area burned. During the 21-y time period, the human-caused fire season was three times longer than the lightning-caused fire season and added an average of 40,000 wildfires per year across the United States. Human-started wildfires disproportionally occurred where fuel moisture was higher than lightning-started fires, thereby helping expand the geographic and seasonal niche of wildfire. Human-started wildfires were dominant (>80% of ignitions) in over 5.1 million km2, the vast majority of the United States, whereas lightning-started fires were dominant in only 0.7 million km2, primarily in sparsely populated areas of the mountainous western United States. Ignitions caused by human activities are a substantial driver of overall fire risk to ecosystems and economies. Actions to raise awareness and increase management in regions prone to human-started wildfires should be a focus of United States policy to reduce fire risk and associated hazards. PMID:28242690

Risk factors for microbial bioburden during daily wear of silicone hydrogel contact lenses.

PubMed

Jiang, Ying; Jacobs, Michael; Bajaksouzian, Saralee; Foster, Altreisha N; Debanne, Sara M; Bielefeld, Roger; Garvey, Matt; Raghupathy, Sangeetha; Kern, Jami; Szczotka-Flynn, Loretta B

2014-05-01

To assess risk factors associated with substantial microbial bioburden of lids, conjunctivae, contact lenses, and storage cases during daily wear of silicone hydrogel contact lenses. Two hundred eighteen patients were fit to lotrafilcon A lenses, randomized to use either a multipurpose solution or a hydrogen peroxide care system, and followed up for 1 year. Lenses, lens transport saline, lids, conjunctivae, and storage cases were cultured and considered to have substantial microbial bioburden when they harbored high levels of commensal or pathogenic organisms. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine which demographic covariates were associated with significant bioburden at each location while controlling for solution use. In multivariate analyses, smoking trended toward an association with lens bioburden (odds ratio [OR]=2.15, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.95-4.88). Clerical occupations were found to be associated with more frequent overall storage case contamination (OR=3.51, 95% CI: 1.15-10.70) and, specifically, higher gram-positive storage case contamination (OR=5.57, 95% CI: 1.82-17.06). The peroxide system was associated with more frequent storage case contamination (OR=7.6, 95% CI: 3.79-15.19). Coagulase-negative staphylococci (CNS) were the most frequently cultured organisms within storage cases, and in multivariate analyses, CNS were more frequently found in storage cases of peroxide users (OR=6.12, 95% CI: 2.91-13.09). Clerical occupations were associated with increased microbial bioburden of storage cases during daily wear of silicone hydrogel lenses. Smoking may increase the risk of lens contamination. Storage cases are most frequently contaminated with normal skin flora, and peroxide cases were associated with more frequent contamination. However, the solution type was not associated with lid or lens contamination nor with corneal infiltrative events in this study.

Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

2017-07-01

Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

Substantial Family History of Prostate Cancer in Black Men Recruited for Prostate Cancer Screening

PubMed Central

Mastalski, Kathleen; Coups, Elliot J.; Ruth, Karen; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2008-01-01

Background Black men are at increased risk for prostate cancer (PCA), particularly with a family history (FH) of the disease. Previous reports have raised concern for suboptimal screening of Black men with a FH of PCA. We report on the extent of FH of PCA from a prospective, longitudinal PCA screening program for high-risk men. Methods Black men ages 35-69 are eligible for PCA screening through the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program (PRAP) regardless of FH. Rates of self-reported FH of PCA, breast, and colon cancer at baseline were compared with an age-matched sample of Black men from the 2005 National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) using standard statistical methods. Results As of January 2007, 332 Black men with pedigree information were enrolled in PRAP and FH of PCA was compared to 838 Black men from the 2005 NHIS. Black men in PRAP reported significantly more first-degree relatives with PCA compared to Black men in the 2005 NHIS (34.3%, 95% CI 29.2-39.7 vs. 5.7%, 95% CI 3.9-7.4). Black men in PRAP also had more FH of breast cancer compared to the 2005 NHIS (11.5%, 95% CI 8.2-15.4 vs 6.3%, 95% CI 4.6-8.0). Conclusions FH of PCA appears to be a motivating factor for Black men seeking PCA screening. Targeted recruitment and education among Black families should improve PCA screening rates. Efforts to recruit Black men without a FH of PCA are also needed. Condensed Abstract Black men seeking prostate cancer screening have a substantial burden of family history of prostate cancer. Targeted education and enhancing discussion in Black families should increase prostate cancer screening and adherence. PMID:18816608

Hypothyroidism as a risk factor for open angle glaucoma: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PubMed Central

Liu, Yue; Zheng, Guangying

2017-01-01

Purpose The relationship between hypothyroidism and primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) has attracted intense interest recently, but the reported results have been controversial. This meta-analysis was carried out to determine the association between hypothyroidism and POAG. Methods The literature was identified from three databases (Web of Science, Embase, and PubMed). The meta-analyses were performed using random-effects models, with results reported as adjusted odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI 95%). Results A total of 11 studies meeting the inclusion criteria were included in the final meta-analysis. The pooled OR based on 11 risk estimates showed a statistically significant increased risk of POAG prevalence among individuals with hypothyroidism (OR = 1.64, 95% CI = 1.27–2.13). Substantial heterogeneity among these studies was detected (P < 0.001; I2 = 83.2%). Sub-group analysis revealed that the cohort studies and case–control studies showed a significant association between hypothyroidism and POAG, which was not observed in cross-sectional studies. There was no significant publication bias in this study. Conclusions The findings of this meta-analysis indicate that individuals with hypothyroidism have an increased risk of developing POAG. PMID:29069095

Should dairy be recommended as part of a healthy vegetarian diet? Point.

PubMed

Weaver, Connie M

2009-05-01

A benefit-risk evaluation of the evidence for including dairy foods in the diet is presented. For many persons dairy products provide a substantial portion of essential nutrients, but especially calcium, potassium, and magnesium. Dietary supplements and fortified foods can be alternative sources of these nutrients, although other components of dairy foods such as amino acid composition and conjugated linoleic acid may be instrumental in the benefits associated with dairy product consumption for bone health and reduced risk of stroke, metabolic syndrome, and some cancers. Newer evidence shows that protein-induced calciuria does not have a detrimental effect on net calcium retention, and the concentrations of hormones in milk are not outside of the range of endogenous concentrations. Increased dietary protein, including from milk, can elevate serum concentrations of insulin-like growth factor I, which has an unknown relation to cancer. The concern over consumption of milk leading to increased risk of prostate cancer through reduction of serum 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D, a potent anti-prostate cancer hormone, has been resolved with new evidence that local production of this hormone is independent of diet. Overall, evidence suggests that being a lactovegetarian has greater health benefits and reduced health risks than being a vegan.

Occupational skin cancer induced by ultraviolet radiation and its prevention.

PubMed

Diepgen, T L; Fartasch, M; Drexler, H; Schmitt, J

2012-08-01

Skin cancer is by far the most common kind of cancer diagnosed in many western countries and ultraviolet radiation is the most important risk factor for cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and basal cell carcinoma (BCC). Although employees at several workplaces are exposed to increased levels of UV radiation, skin cancer due to long-term intense occupational exposure to UV radiation is often not considered as occupational disease. The actually available evidence in the epidemiological literature clearly indicates that occupational UV radiation exposure is a substantial and robust risk factor for the development of cutaneous SCC and also clearly shows a significant risk for developing BCC. There is enough scientific evidence that outdoor workers have an increased risk of developing work-related occupational skin cancer due to natural UV radiation exposure and adequate prevention strategies must be implemented. The three measures which are successful and of particular importance in the prevention of nonmelanoma skin cancer in outdoor workers are changes in behaviour regarding awareness of health and disease resulting from exposure to natural UV radiation, protection from direct UV radiation by wearing suitable clothing, and regular and correct use of appropriate sunscreens. © 2012 The Authors. BJD © 2012 British Association of Dermatologists.

Physical Health Risk Behaviours in Young People with Mental Illness.

PubMed

McCloughen, Andrea; Foster, Kim; Marabong, Nikka; Miu, David; Fethney, Judith

2015-01-01

Comorbid physical health conditions, commonly associated with mental illness, contribute to increased morbidity and reduced life expectancy. The trajectory to poorer health begins with the onset of mental illness. For young people with mental illness, health risk behaviours and poor physical health can progress to adulthood with long-term detrimental impacts. Using a cross-sectional survey design, self-reported health risk behaviours were gathered from 56 young (16-25 years) Australians who had been hospitalised for mental illness and taking psychotropic medication. Smoking, alcohol use, minimal physical activity, and lack of primary health care were evident. While these behaviours are typical of many young people, those with mental illness have substantially increased vulnerability to poor health and reduced life expectancy. Priority needs to be given to targeted health promotion strategies for young people with mental illness to modify their risky long-term health behaviours and improve morbidity and mortality outcomes. Nurses in mental health settings play a vital role in promoting young peoples' well-being and preventing poorer physical health outcomes. Implementation of a cardiometabolic health nurse role in inpatient settings for young people with mental illness could facilitate prevention and early intervention for health risk behaviours.

Ultraviolet Radiation: Human Exposure and Health Risks.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Tenkate, Thomas D.

1998-01-01

Provides an overview of human exposure to ultraviolet radiation and associated health effects as well as risk estimates for acute and chronic conditions resulting from such exposure. Demonstrates substantial reductions in health risk that can be achieved through preventive actions. Also includes a risk assessment model for skin cancer. Contains 36…

The demography of menopause.

PubMed

Hill, K

1996-03-01

Menopause marks a time of dramatic hormonal and often social change for women. Both risk factors and health needs are likely to change as women pass through menopause. This paper examines the demographic characteristics of the world population of menopausal and post-menopausal women, and also examines the implication of menopause for mortality risks. The numbers of women involved are large. Using age 50 as a proxy for menopause, about 25 million women pass through menopause each year, and we estimate that in 1990 there were 467 million post-menopausal women in the world, with an average age of about 60 years. By 2030, the world population of menopausal and postmenopausal women is projected to increase to 1.2 billion, with 47 million new entrants each year. The mortality implications of menopause are also substantial. Ratios of female to male mortality risks from all causes and from all major cause groups except neoplasms decline to low levels around menopause or shortly thereafter, and then rise again to near unity. This pattern is taken as evidence that the female reproductive period is broadly protective of health, but that this protection disappears after menopause. The main protective effect is through reduced risk of cardiovascular disease mortality, partially offset by increased risks of cancer mortality, particularly of the breast and endometrium.

Management and Outcomes Among Chinese Hospitalized Patients With Established Cardiovascular Disease or Multiple Risk Factors.

PubMed

Yang, Jingang; Yang, Yuejin; Gu, Hongqiu; Li, Wei; Hu, Dayi

2016-02-01

We assessed the management and outcomes among hospitalized patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), stroke, peripheral artery disease (PAD), or with multiple (≥ 2) cardiovascular (CV) risk factors (multiple risk factors [MRFs]). We retrospectively studied 3732 hospitalized patients of either CV disease or ≥ 2 risk factors for atherothrombosis from October 2004 to January 2005. Outcomes included CV death, myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and hospitalization for atherothrombotic events. About one-third had disease involving ≥ 1 vascular bed. Medication was more intense in patients with CAD than in others. The lowest use of statins and antiplatelet treatment was in the PAD-only group. Patients with PAD experienced a higher CV mortality (5.1%) than the patients with CAD (3.73%) or stroke (4.1%), P < .001. Cardiovascular death ranged from 1.2% for patients with MRFs, 2.8% for patients with 1-bed disease, 4.7% for patients with 2-bed disease to 6.4% for patients with 3-bed disease (P for trend <.001). For hospitalized patients with established atherosclerotic arterial disease, a substantial increase in CV event rates occurs with increasing numbers of affected arterial beds. Patients with PAD were at an especially high risk. © The Author(s) 2015.

Trends in California homicide, 1970 to 1993.

PubMed Central

Chu, L D; Sorenson, S B

1996-01-01

In addition to the need to identify homicide trends among well-documented risk groups, this investigation was conducted to expand the limited existing knowledge about the risk of homicide according to educational attainment and among 2 growing ethnic groups, Hispanics and Asians. We examined the death certificates of the 69,621 persons who died of homicide in California from 1970 through 1993. Age, sex, race and ethnicity, and education level of the victim, along with the homicide method, were abstracted from each record. Frequencies, rates, and relative risk were calculated. Substantial increases in the homicide rates occurred for 15- to 19-year-olds (4.0-fold), men (1.9-fold), Hispanics (2.5-fold), and Asians or others (1.7-fold) from 1970 to 1993. The use of firearms consistently accounted for a growing proportion of all homicides, reaching a high in 1993 of 75% for all persons and 90% for 15- to 19-year-olds. High school dropouts have the highest homicide risk of all education groups. Homicide risk differentials by ethnicity, sex, and age all increased during the study period. Persons of color and youth have been disproportionately affected by homicide for many years, and these data indicate that things are getting worse. Redoubled collaborative prevention and intervention efforts are needed to reverse this trend. PMID:8909163

Measuring the impact of air pollution on respiratory infection risk in China.

PubMed

Tang, Sanyi; Yan, Qinling; Shi, Wei; Wang, Xia; Sun, Xiaodan; Yu, Pengbo; Wu, Jianhong; Xiao, Yanni

2018-01-01

China is now experiencing major public health challenges caused by air pollution. Few studies have quantified the dynamics of air pollution and its impact on the risk of respiratory infection. We conducted an integrated data analysis to quantify the association among air quality index (AQI), meteorological variables and respiratory infection risk in Shaanxi province of China in the period of November 15th, 2010 to November 14th, 2016. Our analysis illustrated a statistically significantly positive correlation between the number of influenza-like illness (ILI) cases and AQI, and the respiratory infection risk has increased progressively with increased AQI with a time lag of 0-3 days. We also developed mathematical models for the AQI trend and respiratory infection dynamics, incorporating AQI-dependent incidence and AQI-based behaviour change interventions. Our combined data and modelling analysis estimated the basic reproduction number for the respiratory infection during the studying period to be 2.4076, higher than the basic reproduction number of the 2009 pandemic influenza in the same province. Our modelling-based simulations concluded that, in terms of respiratory infection risk reduction, the persistent control of emission in the China's blue-sky programme is much more effective than substantial social-economic interventions implemented only during the smog days. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

PrEP as peri-conception HIV prevention for women and men

PubMed Central

Heffron, Renee; Pintye, Jillian; Matthews, Lynn T.; Weber, Shannon; Mugo, Nelly

2016-01-01

Daily oral tenofovir (TDF)-based pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective HIV prevention strategy and recommended for men and women with substantial risk of HIV acquisition. The peri-conception period, the stage prior to pregnancy when condom use is necessarily reduced, has elevated HIV risk that can be mitigated by PrEP use. Data from a randomized trial suggest that peri-conception PrEP use by HIV-seronegative women does not increase the risk of pregnancy loss, birth defects or congenital anomalies, preterm birth, or infant growth faltering. Women considering PrEP use throughout pregnancy must weigh the known increased risk of HIV acquisition with unknown risks of drug effects on infant growth. PrEP has been used safely by HIV-seronegative men with HIV-seropositive female partners who have become pregnant. As an effective user-controlled HIV prevention strategy, PrEP offers autonomy and empowerment for HIV prevention and can be recommended alongside antiretroviral therapy, fertility screening, vaginal self-insemination, intercourse timed to peak fertility, medically assisted reproduction, and other safer conception strategies to provide multiple options. The integration of PrEP into safer conception programs is warranted and will safely reduce HIV transmission to women, men and children during the peri-conception period. PMID:26993627

The Safety of Appropriate Use of Over-the-Counter Proton Pump Inhibitors: An Evidence-Based Review and Delphi Consensus.

PubMed

Johnson, David A; Katz, Philip O; Armstrong, David; Cohen, Henry; Delaney, Brendan C; Howden, Colin W; Katelaris, Peter; Tutuian, Radu I; Castell, Donald O

2017-04-01

The availability of over-the-counter (OTC) proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) for the short-term (2 weeks) management of frequent heartburn (≥2 days/week) has increased markedly, yet evidence-based recommendations have not been developed. A panel of nine international experts in gastroesophageal reflux disease developed consensus statements regarding the risks and benefits of OTC PPIs using a modified Delphi process. Consensus (based on ≥80% approval) was reached through multiple rounds of remote voting and a final round of live voting. To identify relevant data, the available literature was searched and summarized. Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) system terminology was used to rate the quality of evidence and strength of recommendations; consensus was based on ≥2/3 agreement. After 4 rounds of review, consensus was achieved for 18 statements. Notably, the available data did not directly reflect OTC use, but instead, prescription use; therefore, extrapolations to the OTC setting were often necessary. This limitation is regrettable, but it justifies performing this exercise to provide evidence-based expert opinion on a widely used class of drugs. The panel determined that using OTC PPIs according to label instructions is unlikely to mask the symptoms of esophageal or gastric cancer or adversely impact the natural history of related precursor conditions. OTC PPIs are not expected to substantially affect micronutrient absorption or bone mineral density or cause community-acquired pneumonia, Clostridium difficile infection, or cardiovascular adverse events. However, OTC PPI use may be associated with slightly increased risks for infectious diarrhea, certain idiosyncratic reactions, and cirrhosis-related spontaneous bacterial peritonitis. The available evidence does not suggest that OTC PPI use consistent with label instructions is associated with substantial health risks. To minimize potential risks, healthcare professionals and consumers must actively participate in decision making when managing reflux-related symptoms in the self-care setting.

A spatially-dynamic preliminary risk assessment of the American peregrine falcon at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (version 1)

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gallegos, A.F.; Gonzales, G.J.; Bennett, K.D.

1997-06-01

The Endangered Species Act and the Record of Decision on the Dual Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at the Los Alamos National Laboratory require protection of the American peregrine falcon. A preliminary risk assessment of the peregrine was performed using a custom FORTRAN model and a geographical information system. Estimated doses to the falcon were compared against toxicity reference values to generate hazard indices. Hazard index results indicated no unacceptable risk to the falcon from the soil ingestion pathway, including a measure of cumulative effects from multiple contaminants that assumes a linear additive toxicity type. Scaling home ranges on themore » basis of maximizing falcon height for viewing prey decreased estimated risk by 69% in a canyons-based home range and increased estimated risk by 40% in a river-based home range. Improving model realism by weighting simulated falcon foraging based on distance from potential nest sites decreased risk by 93% in one exposure unit and by 82% in a second exposure unit. It was demonstrated that choice of toxicity reference values can have a substantial impact on risk estimates. Adding bioaccumulation factors for several organics increased partial hazard quotients by a factor of 110, but increased the mean hazard index by only 0.02 units. Adding a food consumption exposure pathway in the form of biomagnification factors for 15 contaminants of potential ecological concern increased the mean hazard index to 1.16 ({+-} 1.0), which is above the level of acceptability (1.0). Aroclor-1254, dichlorodiphenyltrichlorethane (DDT) and dichlorodiphenylethelyne (DDE) accounted for 81% of the estimated risk that includes soil ingestion and food consumption Contaminant pathways and a biomagnification component. Information on risk by specific geographical location was generated, which can be used to manage contaminated areas, falcon habitat, facility siting, and/or facility operations. 123 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs.« less

Ontology-based, multi-agent support of production management

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Meridou, Despina T.; Inden, Udo; Rückemann, Claus-Peter; Patrikakis, Charalampos Z.; Kaklamani, Dimitra-Theodora I.; Venieris, Iakovos S.

2016-06-01

Over the recent years, the reported incidents on failed aircraft ramp-ups or the delayed production in small-lots have increased substantially. In this paper, we present a production management platform that combines agent-based techniques with the Service Oriented Architecture paradigm. This platform takes advantage of the functionality offered by the semantic web language OWL, which allows the users and services of the platform to speak a common language and, at the same time, facilitates risk management and decision making.

[The ecological and epidemiological principles of prevention of ascariasis under the conditions of large-scale solid waste storage].

PubMed

Kas'ianov, V I

2005-01-01

The paper presents the results of a study of the impact of large-scale solid waste storage on ascariasis morbidity in the population. The use of sewage sediments as an organic soil fertilizer to grow strawberries and table greens is shown to substantially increase the risk of Ascaris infection in the population. Storage of solid domestic garbage on specialized dumping grounds does not lead to mass environmental pollution with geohelminthic eggs.

Taxing junk food to counter obesity.

PubMed

Franck, Caroline; Grandi, Sonia M; Eisenberg, Mark J

2013-11-01

We examined the advantages and disadvantages of implementing a junk food tax as an intervention to counter increasing obesity in North America. Small excise taxes are likely to yield substantial revenue but are unlikely to affect obesity rates. High excise taxes are likely to have a direct impact on weight in at-risk populations but are less likely to be politically palatable or sustainable. Ultimately, the effectiveness of earmarked health programs and subsidies is likely to be a key determinant of tax success in the fight against obesity.

Risk factors for contact lens bacterial contamination during continuous wear.

PubMed

Szczotka-Flynn, Loretta B; Bajaksouzian, Saralee; Jacobs, Michael R; Rimm, Alfred

2009-11-01

Microbial contamination of contact lenses is associated with corneal infection and inflammation. This study determined the microbiological, clinical, and demographic factors that are associated with bacterial contamination of a silicone hydrogel contact lens when worn for continuous wear (CW). Two hundred five healthy subjects were enrolled in the Longitudinal Analysis of Silicone Hydrogel Contact Lens Study and were fitted with lotrafilcon A lenses for monthly CW and followed for 1 year. Lenses were aseptically removed after 1 week and 4 months of wear and cultured using an agar sandwich technique. Lids and conjunctiva were routinely cultured at baseline and after 1 week and 4 months of CW. Lenses and ocular sites were considered to have substantial microbial bioburden when they harbored pathogenic organisms or high levels of commensal organisms. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine whether substantial conjunctival or lid bioburden, subject demographics, lens-wearing history, symptoms, and biomicroscopic signs were associated with lens bioburden. About one third (32.4%) of subjects had substantial bacterial bioburden in either eye across multiple visits. Over half (53.2%) and about one tenth (11.7%) of subjects had substantial lid and conjunctival bioburden, respectively, and 11.2% discontinued because of discomfort. The adjusted odds ratios (and 95% confidence intervals) for presence of substantial lens bioburden were 2.49 (1.17-5.30), 4.24 (1.45-12.40), and 4.11 (1.17-14.46) for substantial lid bioburden, substantial conjunctival bioburden, and lens discomfort, respectively. Bacterial contamination of silicone hydrogel contact lenses is common during CW. Substantial lens bioburden is associated with discomfort precluding successful CW. The presence of substantial lid and conjunctival bioburden is associated with a 2.5-fold and more than fourfold greater risk of substantial lens bioburden and is likely the major route of contamination.

Balancing risk, interpersonal intimacy and agency: perspectives from marginalised women in Zambia.

PubMed

Davis, Lwendo Moonzwe; Kostick, Kristin Marie

2018-05-15

Women are most exposed to sexual health risks within their marital relationships, primarily due to the sexually risky behaviours of their spouses. Studies show that expanding agency is critical for women to mitigate both physical and sexual health risks and is linked to increased psycho-social well-being and economic independence. Drawing on qualitative and quantitative primary data collected from a peri-urban community in Zambia, this paper explores how women exert agency in a community where few educational and economic opportunities and substantial food insecurity exacerbate women's risk for HIV within their marital relationships. It also examines how expressions of agency within marital unions can reduce HIV risk exposure and lead to socio-economic benefits. However, expressions of agency can also create physical, psycho-social and sexual health risks, particularly when spouses do not support independent decision-making and actions that women consider necessary to support the household and maintain intimacy. Findings highlight the importance of community involvement and addressing harmful socio-cultural norms to foster the realisation of women's agency.

Serotonin reuptake inhibitors in pregnancy and the risk of major malformations: a systematic review.

PubMed

Bellantuono, Cesario; Migliarese, Giovanni; Gentile, Salvatore

2007-04-01

To review studies conducted to establish the risk of major congenital malformations in women exposed to serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SRIs) during the first trimester of pregnancy. A literature search [corrected] was conducted within PsycINFO [corrected] EMBASE, MEDLINE and Cochrane databases from 1966 to October 2006, to identify studies assessing the risk of major malformations in infants whose mother was taking SRIs (SSRIs and SNRIs) during the first trimester of pregnancy. Fifteen studies were selected for the analysis: seven adopted a prospective cohort design and seven a retrospective design, of these one was a case-control study. The reviewed studies suggest that exposure to fluoxetine, sertraline, citalopram and venlafaxine in early pregnancy is not associated with an increased risk of major congenital malformations. For paroxetine, recent data call for caution in prescribing such a drug in early pregnancy. For the other SRIs, the risk remains substantially undetermined, as data are so far scanty. Given this background, large prospective cohort studies are urgently needed to better assess the risk/benefit ratio of SRIs-treatment during pregnancy. Copyright 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Associations between unprocessed red and processed meat, poultry, seafood and egg intake and the risk of prostate cancer: A pooled analysis of 15 prospective cohort studies.

PubMed

Wu, Kana; Spiegelman, Donna; Hou, Tao; Albanes, Demetrius; Allen, Naomi E; Berndt, Sonja I; van den Brandt, Piet A; Giles, Graham G; Giovannucci, Edward; Alexandra Goldbohm, R; Goodman, Gary G; Goodman, Phyllis J; Håkansson, Niclas; Inoue, Manami; Key, Timothy J; Kolonel, Laurence N; Männistö, Satu; McCullough, Marjorie L; Neuhouser, Marian L; Park, Yikyung; Platz, Elizabeth A; Schenk, Jeannette M; Sinha, Rashmi; Stampfer, Meir J; Stevens, Victoria L; Tsugane, Shoichiro; Visvanathan, Kala; Wilkens, Lynne R; Wolk, Alicja; Ziegler, Regina G; Smith-Warner, Stephanie A

2016-05-15

Reports relating meat intake to prostate cancer risk are inconsistent. Associations between these dietary factors and prostate cancer were examined in a consortium of 15 cohort studies. During follow-up, 52,683 incident prostate cancer cases, including 4,924 advanced cases, were identified among 842,149 men. Cox proportional hazard models were used to calculate study-specific relative risks (RR) and then pooled using random effects models. Results do not support a substantial effect of total red, unprocessed red and processed meat for all prostate cancer outcomes, except for a modest positive association for tumors identified as advanced stage at diagnosis (advanced(r)). For seafood, no substantial effect was observed for prostate cancer regardless of stage or grade. Poultry intake was inversely associated with risk of advanced and fatal cancers (pooled multivariable RR [MVRR], 95% confidence interval, comparing ≥ 45 vs. <5 g/day: advanced 0.83, 0.70-0.99; trend test p value 0.29), fatal, 0.69, 0.59-0.82, trend test p value 0.16). Participants who ate ≥ 25 versus <5 g/day of eggs (1 egg ∼ 50 g) had a significant 14% increased risk of advanced and fatal cancers (advanced 1.14, 1.01-1.28, trend test p value 0.01; fatal 1.14, 1.00-1.30, trend test p value 0.01). When associations were analyzed separately by geographical region (North America vs. other continents), positive associations between unprocessed red meat and egg intake, and inverse associations between poultry intake and advanced, advanced(r) and fatal cancers were limited to North American studies. However, differences were only statistically significant for eggs. Observed differences in associations by geographical region warrant further investigation. © 2015 UICC.

Clinical events after interruption of anticoagulation in patients with atrial fibrillation: An analysis from the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial.

PubMed

Cavallari, Ilaria; Ruff, Christian T; Nordio, Francesco; Deenadayalu, Naveen; Shi, Minggao; Lanz, Hans; Rutman, Howard; Mercuri, Michele F; Antman, Elliott M; Braunwald, Eugene; Giugliano, Robert P

2018-04-15

Patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) who interrupt anticoagulation are at high risk of thromboembolism and death. Patients enrolled in the ENGAGE AF-TIMI 48 trial (randomized comparison of edoxaban vs. warfarin) who interrupted study anticoagulant for >3 days were identified. Clinical events (ischemic stroke/systemic embolism, major cardiac and cerebrovascular events [MACCE]) were analyzed from day 4 after interruption until day 34 or study drug resumption. During 2.8 years median follow-up, 13,311 (63%) patients interrupted study drug for >3 days. After excluding those who received open-label anticoagulation during the at-risk window, the population for analysis included 9148 patients. The rates of ischemic stroke/systemic embolism and MACCE post interruption were substantially greater than in patients who never interrupted (15.42 vs. 0.26 and 60.82 vs. 0.36 per 100 patient-years, respectively, p adj  < .001). Patients who interrupted study drug for an adverse event (44.1% of the cohort), compared to those who interrupted for other reasons, had an increased risk of MACCE (HR adj 2.75; 95% CI 2.02-3.74, p < .0001), but similar rates of ischemic stroke/systemic embolism. Rates of clinical events after interruption of warfarin and edoxaban were similar. Interruption of study drug was frequent in patients with AF and was associated with a substantial risk of major cardiac and cerebrovascular events over the ensuing 30 days. This risk was particularly high in patients who interrupted as a result of an adverse event; these patients deserve close monitoring and resumption of anticoagulation as soon as it is safe to do so. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

[Mobile phones and head tumours: it is time to read and highlight data in a proper way].

PubMed

Levis, Angelo G; Minicucci, Nadia; Ricci, Paolo; Gennaro, Valerio; Garbisa, Spiridione

2011-01-01

The uncertainty about the relationship between the use of mobile phones (MPs: analogue and digital cellulars, and cordless) and the increase of head tumour risk can be solved by a critical analysis of the methodological elements of both the positive and the negative studies. Results by Hardell indicate a cause/effect relationship: exposures for or latencies from ≥ 10 years to MPs increase by up to 100% the risk of tumour on the same side of the head preferred for phone use (ipsilateral tumours) - which is the only one significantly irradiated - with statistical significance for brain gliomas, meningiomas and acoustic neuromas. On the contrary, studies published under the Interphone project and others produced negative results and are characterised by the substantial underestimation of the risk of tumour. However, also in the Interphone studies a clear and statistically significant increase of ipsilateral head tumours (gliomas, neuromas and parotid gland tumours) is quite common in people having used MPs since or for ≥ 10 years. And also the metaanalyses by Hardell and other Authors, including only the literature data on ipsilateral tumours in people having used MPs since or for ≥ 10 years - and so also part of the Interphone data - still show statistically significant increases of head tumours.

Policies for Reducing Coastal Risk on the East and Gulf Coasts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Glickson, D.; Johnson, S.

2014-12-01

Hurricane- and coastal storm-related economic losses have increased substantially over the past century, largely due to expanding population and development in susceptible coastal areas. Concurrent with this growth, the federal government has assumed an increasing proportion of the financial responsibility associated with U.S. coastal storms, which may discourage state and local governments from taking appropriate actions to reduce risk and enhance resilience. Strategies to manage coastal storm risks fall into two categories: reducing the probability of flooding or wave impact (such as seawalls, storm surge barriers, beach nourishment, dune building, restoration/expansion of oyster reefs, salt marshes, and mangroves) and reducing the number or vulnerability of people or structures (such as relocation, land-use planning, and elevating or floodproofing buildings). Over the past century, most coastal risk management programs have emphasized coastal armoring, while doing little to decrease development in harm's way. This National Research Council report calls for the development of a national vision for managing coastal risks that includes a long-term view, regional solutions, and recognition of all benefits. A national coastal risk assessment is needed to identify high priority areas. Benefit-cost analysis provides a reasonable framework to evaluate national investments in coastal risk reduction, if constrained by other important environmental, social, and life-safety factors. Extensive collaboration and additional policy changes will be necessary to move from a nation that is primarily reactive to coastal disasters to one that invests wisely in coastal risk reduction and builds resilience among coastal communities.

A Spatial Framework to Map Heat Health Risks at Multiple Scales.

PubMed

Ho, Hung Chak; Knudby, Anders; Huang, Wei

2015-12-18

In the last few decades extreme heat events have led to substantial excess mortality, most dramatically in Central Europe in 2003, in Russia in 2010, and even in typically cool locations such as Vancouver, Canada, in 2009. Heat-related morbidity and mortality is expected to increase over the coming centuries as the result of climate-driven global increases in the severity and frequency of extreme heat events. Spatial information on heat exposure and population vulnerability may be combined to map the areas of highest risk and focus mitigation efforts there. However, a mismatch in spatial resolution between heat exposure and vulnerability data can cause spatial scale issues such as the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). We used a raster-based model to integrate heat exposure and vulnerability data in a multi-criteria decision analysis, and compared it to the traditional vector-based model. We then used the Getis-Ord G(i) index to generate spatially smoothed heat risk hotspot maps from fine to coarse spatial scales. The raster-based model allowed production of maps at spatial resolution, more description of local-scale heat risk variability, and identification of heat-risk areas not identified with the vector-based approach. Spatial smoothing with the Getis-Ord G(i) index produced heat risk hotspots from local to regional spatial scale. The approach is a framework for reducing spatial scale issues in future heat risk mapping, and for identifying heat risk hotspots at spatial scales ranging from the block-level to the municipality level.

RISK MANAGEMENT RESEARCH PLAN FOR ECOSYSTEM RESTORATION IN WATERSHEDS

EPA Science Inventory

This document outlines the scope of National Risk Management Laboratory (NRMRL) risk management research in the area of ecosystem restoration. NRMRL is uniquely positioned to make substantial contributions to ecosystem science because of its in-house expertise relative to surfac...

Comparison of a new noncoplanar intensity-modulated radiation therapy technique for craniospinal irradiation with 3 coplanar techniques

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Hansen, Anders T., E-mail: andehans@rm.dk; Lukacova, Slavka; Lassen-Ramshad, Yasmin

2015-01-01

When standard conformal x-ray technique for craniospinal irradiation is used, it is a challenge to achieve satisfactory dose coverage of the target including the area of the cribriform plate, while sparing organs at risk. We present a new intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT), noncoplanar technique, for delivering irradiation to the cranial part and compare it with 3 other techniques and previously published results. A total of 13 patients who had previously received craniospinal irradiation with standard conformal x-ray technique were reviewed. New treatment plans were generated for each patient using the noncoplanar IMRT-based technique, a coplanar IMRT-based technique, and a coplanarmore » volumetric-modulated arch therapy (VMAT) technique. Dosimetry data for all patients were compared with the corresponding data from the conventional treatment plans. The new noncoplanar IMRT technique substantially reduced the mean dose to organs at risk compared with the standard radiation technique. The 2 other coplanar techniques also reduced the mean dose to some of the critical organs. However, this reduction was not as substantial as the reduction obtained by the noncoplanar technique. Furthermore, compared with the standard technique, the IMRT techniques reduced the total calculated radiation dose that was delivered to the normal tissue, whereas the VMAT technique increased this dose. Additionally, the coverage of the target was significantly improved by the noncoplanar IMRT technique. Compared with the standard technique, the coplanar IMRT and the VMAT technique did not improve the coverage of the target significantly. All the new planning techniques increased the number of monitor units (MU) used—the noncoplanar IMRT technique by 99%, the coplanar IMRT technique by 122%, and the VMAT technique by 26%—causing concern for leak radiation. The noncoplanar IMRT technique covered the target better and decreased doses to organs at risk compared with the other techniques. All the new techniques increased the number of MU compared with the standard technique.« less

Predicting risk of substantial weight gain in German adults-a multi-center cohort approach.

PubMed

Bachlechner, Ursula; Boeing, Heiner; Haftenberger, Marjolein; Schienkiewitz, Anja; Scheidt-Nave, Christa; Vogt, Susanne; Thorand, Barbara; Peters, Annette; Schipf, Sabine; Ittermann, Till; Völzke, Henry; Nöthlings, Ute; Neamat-Allah, Jasmine; Greiser, Karin-Halina; Kaaks, Rudolf; Steffen, Annika

2017-08-01

A risk-targeted prevention strategy may efficiently utilize limited resources available for prevention of overweight and obesity. Likewise, more efficient intervention trials could be designed if selection of subjects was based on risk. The aim of the study was to develop a risk score predicting substantial weight gain among German adults. We developed the risk score using information on 15 socio-demographic, dietary and lifestyle factors from 32 204 participants of five population-based German cohort studies. Substantial weight gain was defined as gaining ≥10% of weight between baseline and follow-up (>6 years apart). The cases were censored according to the theoretical point in time when the threshold of 10% baseline-based weight gain was crossed assuming linearity of weight gain. Beta coefficients derived from proportional hazards regression were used as weights to compute the risk score as a linear combination of the predictors. Cross-validation was used to evaluate the score's discriminatory accuracy. The cross-validated c index (95% CI) was 0.71 (0.67-0.75). A cutoff value of ≥475 score points yielded a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 63%. The corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 10.4% and 97.6%, respectively. The proposed risk score may support healthcare providers in decision making and referral and facilitate an efficient selection of subjects into intervention trials. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association.

Predicting risk of substantial weight gain in German adults—a multi-center cohort approach

PubMed Central

Bachlechner, Ursula; Boeing, Heiner; Haftenberger, Marjolein; Schienkiewitz, Anja; Scheidt-Nave, Christa; Vogt, Susanne; Thorand, Barbara; Peters, Annette; Schipf, Sabine; Ittermann, Till; Völzke, Henry; Nöthlings, Ute; Neamat-Allah, Jasmine; Greiser, Karin-Halina; Kaaks, Rudolf

2017-01-01

Abstract Background A risk-targeted prevention strategy may efficiently utilize limited resources available for prevention of overweight and obesity. Likewise, more efficient intervention trials could be designed if selection of subjects was based on risk. The aim of the study was to develop a risk score predicting substantial weight gain among German adults. Methods We developed the risk score using information on 15 socio-demographic, dietary and lifestyle factors from 32 204 participants of five population-based German cohort studies. Substantial weight gain was defined as gaining ≥10% of weight between baseline and follow-up (>6 years apart). The cases were censored according to the theoretical point in time when the threshold of 10% baseline-based weight gain was crossed assuming linearity of weight gain. Beta coefficients derived from proportional hazards regression were used as weights to compute the risk score as a linear combination of the predictors. Cross-validation was used to evaluate the score’s discriminatory accuracy. Results The cross-validated c index (95% CI) was 0.71 (0.67–0.75). A cutoff value of ≥475 score points yielded a sensitivity of 71% and a specificity of 63%. The corresponding positive and negative predictive values were 10.4% and 97.6%, respectively. Conclusions The proposed risk score may support healthcare providers in decision making and referral and facilitate an efficient selection of subjects into intervention trials. PMID:28013243

Clinical measures, smoking, radon exposure, and risk of lung cancer in uranium miners.

PubMed Central

Finkelstein, M M

1996-01-01

OBJECTIVES: Exposure to the radioactive daughters of radon is associated with increased risk of lung cancer in mining populations. An investigation of incidence of lung cancer following a clinical survey of Ontario uranium miners was undertaken to explore whether risk associated with radon is modified by factors including smoking, radiographic silicosis, clinical symptoms, the results of lung function testing, and the temporal pattern of radon exposure. METHODS: Miners were examined in 1974 by a respiratory questionnaire, tests of lung function, and chest radiography. A random selection of 733 (75%) of the original 973 participants was followed up by linkage to the Ontario Mortality and Cancer Registries. RESULTS: Incidence of lung cancer was increased threefold. Risk of lung cancer among miners who had stopped smoking was half that of men who continued to smoke. There was no interaction between smoking and radon exposure. Men with lung function test results consistent with airways obstruction had an increased risk of lung cancer, even after adjustment for cigarette smoking. There was no association between radiographic silicosis and risk of lung cancer. Lung cancer was associated with exposures to radon daughters accumulated in a time window four to 14 years before diagnosis, but there was little association with exposures incurred earlier than 14 years before diagnosis. Among the men diagnosed with lung cancer, the mean and median dose rates were 2.6 working level months (WLM) a year and 1.8 WLM/year in the four to 14 year exposure window. CONCLUSIONS: Risk of lung cancer associated with radon is modified by dose and time from exposure. Risk can be substantially decreased by stopping smoking. PMID:8943835

Second Neoplasms in Survivors of Childhood Cancer: Findings From the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study Cohort

PubMed Central

Meadows, Anna T.; Friedman, Debra L.; Neglia, Joseph P.; Mertens, Ann C.; Donaldson, Sarah S.; Stovall, Marilyn; Hammond, Sue; Yasui, Yutaka; Inskip, Peter D.

2009-01-01

Purpose To review the reports of subsequent neoplasms (SNs) in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) cohort that were made through January 1, 2006, and published before July 31, 2008, and to discuss the host-, disease-, and therapy-related risk factors associated with SNs. Patients and Methods SNs were ascertained by survivor self-reports and subsequently confirmed by pathology findings or medical record review. Cumulative incidence of SNs and standardized incidence ratios for second malignant neoplasms (SMNs) were calculated. The impact of host-, disease-, and therapy-related risk factors was evaluated by Poisson regression. Results Among 14,358 cohort members, 730 reported 802 SMNs (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers). This represents a 2.3-fold increase in the number of SMNs over that reported in the first comprehensive analysis of SMNs in the CCSS cohort, which was done 7 years ago. In addition, 66 cases of meningioma and 1,007 cases of nonmelanoma skin cancer were diagnosed. The 30-year cumulative incidence of SMNs was 9.3% and that of nonmelanoma skin cancer was 6.9%. Risk of SNs remains elevated for more than 20 years of follow-up for all primary childhood cancer diagnoses. In multivariate analyses, risks differ by SN subtype, but include radiotherapy, age at diagnosis, sex, family history of cancer, and primary childhood cancer diagnosis. Female survivors whose primary childhood cancer diagnosis was Hodgkin's lymphoma or sarcoma and who received radiotherapy are at particularly increased risk. Analyses of risk associated with radiotherapy demonstrated different dose-response curves for specific SNs. Conclusion Childhood cancer survivors are at a substantial and increasing risk for SNs, including nonmelanoma skin cancer and meningiomas. Health care professionals should understand the magnitude of these risks to provide individuals with appropriate counseling and follow-up. PMID:19255307

Metabolically Healthy Obesity and Ischemic Heart Disease: A 10-Year Follow-Up of the Inter99 Study.

PubMed

Hansen, Louise; Netterstrøm, Marie K; Johansen, Nanna B; Rønn, Pernille F; Vistisen, Dorte; Husemoen, Lise L N; Jørgensen, Marit E; Rod, Naja H; Færch, Kristine

2017-06-01

Recent studies have suggested that a subgroup of obese individuals is not at increased risk of obesity-related complications. This subgroup has been referred to as metabolically healthy obese. To investigate whether obesity is a risk factor for development of ischemic heart disease (IHD) irrespective of metabolic health. In all, 6238 men and women from the Danish prospective Inter99 study were followed during 10.6 (standard deviation = 1.7) years. General community. Participants were classified according to body mass index and four metabolic risk factors (low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, elevated blood pressure, triglycerides, and fasting plasma glucose). Metabolically healthy individuals were defined as having no metabolic risk factors, and metabolically unhealthy individuals were defined as having a minimum of one. IHD. During follow-up, 323 participants developed IHD. Metabolically healthy obese men had increased risk of IHD compared with metabolically healthy normal-weight men [hazard ratio (HR), 3.1; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.1 to 8.2)]. The corresponding results for women were less pronounced (HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 0.7 to 4.8). Being metabolically healthy but overweight was not associated with higher risk of IHD in men (HR, 1.1; 95% CI, 0.5 to 2.4), and in women the risk was only slightly increased and insignificant (HR, 1.5; 95% CI, 0.8 to 3.0). A substantial proportion of metabolically healthy individuals became metabolically unhealthy after 5 years of follow-up. When these changes in exposure status were taken into account, slightly higher risk estimates were found. Being obese is associated with higher incidence of IHD irrespective of metabolic status, and we question the feasibility of denoting a subgroup of obese individuals as metabolically healthy. Copyright © 2017 Endocrine Society

Stress-related increases in risk taking and attentional failures predict earlier relapse to smoking in young adults: A pilot investigation.

PubMed

Schepis, Ty S; Tapscott, Brian E; Krishnan-Sarin, Suchitra

2016-04-01

Substantial evidence links greater impulsivity and stress exposure to poorer smoking cessation outcomes. Results from adolescents also indicate that stress-related change in risk taking can impede cessation attempts. We investigated the effects of stress-related change in impulsivity, risk taking, attention and nicotine withdrawal, and craving in young adult smokers on time to smoking relapse in a relapse analogue paradigm. Twenty-six young adult smokers (50% women; mean age: 20.9 ± 1.8) were exposed to a stress imagery session followed by a contingency management-based relapse analogue paradigm. Participants smoked at least 5 cigarettes daily, with a mean baseline carbon monoxide (CO) level of 13.7 (± 5.1) ppm. Repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA) and paired t tests examined stress induction validity and Cox regressions of proportional hazards examined the effects of stress-related changes in nicotine withdrawal, nicotine craving, attention, impulsivity, and risk taking on time to relapse. While stress-related change in impulsivity, nicotine craving and withdrawal did not predict time to relapse (all ps > .10), greater stress-related increases in reaction time (RT) variability (p = .02) were predictive of shorter time to relapse, with trend-level findings for inattention and risk taking. Furthermore, changes in stress-related risk taking affected outcome in women more than in men, with a significant relationship between stress-related change in risk taking only in women (p = .026). Smoking cessation attempts in young adults may be adversely impacted by stress-related increases in risk taking and attentional disruption. Clinicians working with young adults attempting cessation may need to target these stress-related impairments by fostering more adaptive coping and resilience. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Dissection of major depressive disorder using polygenic risk scores for schizophrenia in two independent cohorts.

PubMed

Whalley, H C; Adams, M J; Hall, L S; Clarke, T-K; Fernandez-Pujals, A M; Gibson, J; Wigmore, E; Hafferty, J; Hagenaars, S P; Davies, G; Campbell, A; Hayward, C; Lawrie, S M; Porteous, D J; Deary, I J; McIntosh, A M

2016-11-01

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is known for its substantial clinical and suspected causal heterogeneity. It is characterized by low mood, psychomotor slowing and increased levels of the personality trait neuroticism; factors also associated with schizophrenia (SCZ). It is possible that some cases of MDD may have a substantial genetic loading for SCZ. The presence of SCZ-like MDD subgroups would be indicated by an interaction between MDD status and polygenic risk of SCZ on cognitive, personality and mood measures. Here, we hypothesized that higher SCZ polygenic risk would define larger MDD case-control differences in cognitive ability, and smaller differences in distress and neuroticism. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for SCZ and their association with cognitive variables, neuroticism, mood and psychological distress were estimated in a large population-based cohort (Generation Scotland: Scottish Family Health Study, GS:SFHS). The individuals were divided into those with, and without, depression (n=2587 and n=16 764, respectively) to test for the interactions between MDD status and schizophrenia risk. Replication was sought in UK Biobank (UKB; n=6049 and n=27 476 cases and controls, respectively). In both the cohorts, we found significant interactions between SCZ-PRS and MDD status for measures of psychological distress (β GS =-0.04, P GS =0.014 and β UKB =-0.09, P UKB ⩽0.001 for GS:SFHS and UKB, respectively) and neuroticism (β GS =-0.04, P GS =0.002 and β UKB =-0.06, P UKB =0.023). In both the cohorts, there was a reduction of case-control differences on a background of higher genetic risk of SCZ. These findings suggest that depression on a background of high genetic risk for SCZ may show attenuated associations with distress and neuroticism. This may represent a causally distinct form of MDD more closely related to SCZ.

Natural orifice translumenal endoscopic surgery: Progress in humans since white paper

PubMed Central

Santos, Byron F; Hungness, Eric S

2011-01-01

Since the first description of the concept of natural orifice translumenal endoscopic surgery (NOTES), a substantial number of clinical NOTES reports have appeared in the literature. This editorial reviews the available human data addressing research questions originally proposed by the white paper, including determining the optimal method of access for NOTES, developing safe methods of lumenal closure, suturing and anastomotic devices, advanced multitasking platforms, addressing the risk of infection, managing complications, addressing challenges with visualization, and training for NOTES procedures. An analysis of the literature reveals that so far transvaginal access and closure appear to be the most feasible techniques for NOTES, with a limited, but growing transgastric, transrectal, and transesophageal NOTES experience in humans. The theoretically increased risk of infection as a result of NOTES procedures has not been substantiated in transvaginal and transgastric procedures so far. Development of suturing and anastomotic devices and advanced platforms for NOTES has progressed slowly, with limited clinical data on their use so far. Data on the optimal management and incidence of intraoperative complications remain sparse, although possible factors contributing to complications are discussed. Finally, this editorial discusses the likely direction of future NOTES development and its possible role in clinical practice. PMID:21483624

Prospects for elimination of soil-transmitted helminths.

PubMed

Ásbjörnsdóttir, Kristjana H; Means, Arianna R; Werkman, Marleen; Walson, Judd L

2017-10-01

Soil-transmitted helminths (STH) are endemic in 120 countries and are associated with substantial morbidity and loss of economic productivity. Although current WHO guidelines focus on morbidity control through mass drug administration (MDA), there is global interest in whether a strategy targeting disease elimination might be feasible in some settings. This review summarizes the prospects for switching from control to an elimination strategy. STH control efforts have reduced the intensity of infections in targeted populations with associated reductions in morbidity. However, adults are not frequently targeted and remain important reservoirs for reinfection of treated children. Recent modeling suggests that transmission interruption may be possible through expanded community-wide delivery of MDA, the feasibility of which has been demonstrated by other programs. However, these models suggest that high levels of coverage and compliance must be achieved. Potential challenges include the risk of prematurely dismantling STH programs and the potential increased risk of antihelminthic resistance. Elimination of STH may offer an opportunity to eliminate substantial STH-related morbidity while reducing resource needs of neglected tropical disease programs. Evidence from large community trials is needed to determine the feasibility of interrupting the transmission of STH in some geographic settings.

Gout in African Americans.

PubMed

Krishnan, Eswar

2014-09-01

African Americans have a substantially higher prevalence of risk factors for gout than Caucasians. The aim of the present study was to compare the risk for incident gout among African Americans and Caucasians. Incidence rates of physician-diagnosed gout among 11,559 Caucasian men and 931 African American men aged 35 to 57 years and at high cardiovascular risk, observed for 7 years as a part of the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial, were analyzed. Cox regression models were used to account for potential confounding by age, body mass index, diuretic use, hypertension and diabetes status, aspirin and alcohol consumption, and kidney disease. At baseline, after accounting for risk factors, African Americans had a 14% lower prevalence of hyperuricemia than Caucasians. Incidence of gout increased with increasing prevalence of risk factors in both Caucasians and African Americans. Ethnic disparities in incidence rates were most apparent among those without other risk factors for gout. In separate Cox regression models, after accounting for risk factors, African American ethnicity was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.78 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.66-0.93) for physician-diagnosed gout and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.85-0.90) for incident hyperuricemia. Significant interactions were observed; the association was the strongest (hazard ratio 0.47; 0.37-0.60). These associations were unaffected by addition of serum urate as a covariate or by using alternate case definitions for gout. After accounting for the higher prevalence of risk factors, African American ethnicity is associated with a significantly lower risk for gout and hyperuricemia compared with Caucasian ethnicity. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

12 CFR 206.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2010 CFR

2010-01-01

... credit and liquidity risks, including operational risks, related to intraday and interday transactions... substantial extent in the regular course of business; and (5) Has the power to accept demand deposits. (f...

12 CFR 206.2 - Definitions.

Code of Federal Regulations, 2011 CFR

2011-01-01

... credit and liquidity risks, including operational risks, related to intraday and interday transactions... substantial extent in the regular course of business; and (5) Has the power to accept demand deposits. (f...

The effects of height and BMI on prostate cancer incidence and mortality: a Mendelian randomization study in 20,848 cases and 20,214 controls from the PRACTICAL consortium.

PubMed

Davies, Neil M; Gaunt, Tom R; Lewis, Sarah J; Holly, Jeff; Donovan, Jenny L; Hamdy, Freddie C; Kemp, John P; Eeles, Rosalind; Easton, Doug; Kote-Jarai, Zsofia; Al Olama, Ali Amin; Benlloch, Sara; Muir, Kenneth; Giles, Graham G; Wiklund, Fredrik; Gronberg, Henrik; Haiman, Christopher A; Schleutker, Johanna; Nordestgaard, Børge G; Travis, Ruth C; Neal, David; Pashayan, Nora; Khaw, Kay-Tee; Stanford, Janet L; Blot, William J; Thibodeau, Stephen; Maier, Christiane; Kibel, Adam S; Cybulski, Cezary; Cannon-Albright, Lisa; Brenner, Hermann; Park, Jong; Kaneva, Radka; Batra, Jyotsna; Teixeira, Manuel R; Pandha, Hardev; Lathrop, Mark; Smith, George Davey; Martin, Richard M

2015-11-01

Epidemiological studies suggest a potential role for obesity and determinants of adult stature in prostate cancer risk and mortality, but the relationships described in the literature are complex. To address uncertainty over the causal nature of previous observational findings, we investigated associations of height- and adiposity-related genetic variants with prostate cancer risk and mortality. We conducted a case-control study based on 20,848 prostate cancers and 20,214 controls of European ancestry from 22 studies in the PRACTICAL consortium. We constructed genetic risk scores that summed each man's number of height and BMI increasing alleles across multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms robustly associated with each phenotype from published genome-wide association studies. The genetic risk scores explained 6.31 and 1.46% of the variability in height and BMI, respectively. There was only weak evidence that genetic variants previously associated with increased BMI were associated with a lower prostate cancer risk (odds ratio per standard deviation increase in BMI genetic score 0.98; 95% CI 0.96, 1.00; p = 0.07). Genetic variants associated with increased height were not associated with prostate cancer incidence (OR 0.99; 95% CI 0.97, 1.01; p = 0.23), but were associated with an increase (OR 1.13; 95 % CI 1.08, 1.20) in prostate cancer mortality among low-grade disease (p heterogeneity, low vs. high grade <0.001). Genetic variants associated with increased BMI were associated with an increase (OR 1.08; 95 % CI 1.03, 1.14) in all-cause mortality among men with low-grade disease (p heterogeneity = 0.03). We found little evidence of a substantial effect of genetically elevated height or BMI on prostate cancer risk, suggesting that previously reported observational associations may reflect common environmental determinants of height or BMI and prostate cancer risk. Genetically elevated height and BMI were associated with increased mortality (prostate cancer-specific and all-cause, respectively) in men with low-grade disease, a potentially informative but novel finding that requires replication.

Breast cancer detection risk in screening mammography after a false-positive result.

PubMed

Castells, X; Román, M; Romero, A; Blanch, J; Zubizarreta, R; Ascunce, N; Salas, D; Burón, A; Sala, M

2013-02-01

False-positives are a major concern in breast cancer screening. However, false-positives have been little evaluated as a prognostic factor for cancer detection. Our aim was to evaluate the association of false-positive results with the cancer detection risk in subsequent screening participations over a 17-year period. This is a retrospective cohort study of 762,506 women aged 45-69 years, with at least two screening participations, who underwent 2,594,146 screening mammograms from 1990 to 2006. Multilevel discrete-time hazard models were used to estimate the adjusted odds ratios (OR) of breast cancer detection in subsequent screening participations in women with false-positive results. False-positives involving a fine-needle aspiration cytology or a biopsy had a higher cancer detection risk than those involving additional imaging procedures alone (OR = 2.69; 95%CI: 2.28-3.16 and OR = 1.81; 95%CI: 1.70-1.94, respectively). The risk of cancer detection increased substantially if women with cytology or biopsy had a familial history of breast cancer (OR = 4.64; 95%CI: 3.23-6.66). Other factors associated with an increased cancer detection risk were age 65-69 years (OR = 1.84; 95%CI: 1.67-2.03), non-attendance at the previous screening invitation (OR = 1.26; 95%CI: 1.11-1.43), and having undergone a previous benign biopsy outside the screening program (OR = 1.24; 95%CI: 1.13-1.35). Women with a false-positive test have an increased risk of cancer detection in subsequent screening participations, especially those with a false-positive result involving cytology or biopsy. Understanding the factors behind this association could provide valuable information to increase the effectiveness of breast cancer screening. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mental illness and suicide after self-harm among young adults: long-term follow-up of self-harm patients, admitted to hospital care, in a national cohort.

PubMed

Beckman, K; Mittendorfer-Rutz, E; Lichtenstein, P; Larsson, H; Almqvist, C; Runeson, B; Dahlin, M

2016-12-01

Self-harm among young adults is a common and increasing phenomenon in many parts of the world. The long-term prognosis after self-harm at young age is inadequately known. We aimed to estimate the risk of mental illness and suicide in adult life after self-harm in young adulthood and to identify prognostic factors for adverse outcome. We conducted a national population-based matched case-cohort study. Patients aged 18-24 years (n = 13 731) hospitalized after self-harm between 1990 and 2003 and unexposed individuals of the same age (n = 137 310 ) were followed until December 2009. Outcomes were suicide, psychiatric hospitalization and psychotropic medication in short-term (1-5 years) and long-term (>5 years) follow-up. Self-harm implied an increased relative risk of suicide during follow-up [hazard ratio (HR) 16.4, 95% confidence interval (CI) 12.9-20.9). At long-term follow-up, 20.3% had psychiatric hospitalizations and 51.1% psychotropic medications, most commonly antidepressants and anxiolytics. There was a six-fold risk of psychiatric hospitalization (HR 6.3, 95% CI 5.8-6.8) and almost three-fold risk of psychotropic medication (HR 2.8, 95% CI 2.7-3.0) in long-term follow-up. Mental disorder at baseline, especially a psychotic disorder, and a family history of suicide were associated with adverse outcome among self-harm patients. We found highly increased risks of future mental illness and suicide among young adults after self-harm. A history of a mental disorder was an important indicator of long-term adverse outcome. Clinicians should consider the substantially increased risk of suicide among self-harm patients with psychotic disorders.

Gaming in risk-adjusted mortality rates: effect of misclassification of risk factors in the benchmarking of cardiac surgery risk-adjusted mortality rates.

PubMed

Siregar, Sabrina; Groenwold, Rolf H H; Versteegh, Michel I M; Noyez, Luc; ter Burg, Willem Jan P P; Bots, Michiel L; van der Graaf, Yolanda; van Herwerden, Lex A

2013-03-01

Upcoding or undercoding of risk factors could affect the benchmarking of risk-adjusted mortality rates. The aim was to investigate the effect of misclassification of risk factors on the benchmarking of mortality rates after cardiac surgery. A prospective cohort was used comprising all adult cardiac surgery patients in all 16 cardiothoracic centers in The Netherlands from January 1, 2007, to December 31, 2009. A random effects model, including the logistic European system for cardiac operative risk evaluation (EuroSCORE) was used to benchmark the in-hospital mortality rates. We simulated upcoding and undercoding of 5 selected variables in the patients from 1 center. These patients were selected randomly (nondifferential misclassification) or by the EuroSCORE (differential misclassification). In the random patients, substantial misclassification was required to affect benchmarking: a 1.8-fold increase in prevalence of the 4 risk factors changed an underperforming center into an average performing one. Upcoding of 1 variable required even more. When patients with the greatest EuroSCORE were upcoded (ie, differential misclassification), a 1.1-fold increase was sufficient: moderate left ventricular function from 14.2% to 15.7%, poor left ventricular function from 8.4% to 9.3%, recent myocardial infarction from 7.9% to 8.6%, and extracardiac arteriopathy from 9.0% to 9.8%. Benchmarking using risk-adjusted mortality rates can be manipulated by misclassification of the EuroSCORE risk factors. Misclassification of random patients or of single variables will have little effect. However, limited upcoding of multiple risk factors in high-risk patients can greatly influence benchmarking. To minimize "gaming," the prevalence of all risk factors should be carefully monitored. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

Cycling injury risk in London: A case-control study exploring the impact of cycle volumes, motor vehicle volumes, and road characteristics including speed limits.

PubMed

Aldred, Rachel; Goodman, Anna; Gulliver, John; Woodcock, James

2018-08-01

Cycling injury risk is an important topic, but few studies explore cycling risk in relation to exposure. This is largely because of a lack of exposure data, in other words how much cycling is done at different locations. This paper helps to fill this gap. It reports a case-control study of cycling injuries in London in 2013-2014, using modelled cyclist flow data alongside datasets covering some characteristics of the London route network. A multilevel binary logistic regression model is used to investigate factors associated with injury risk, comparing injury sites with control sites selected using the modelled flow data. Findings provide support for 'safety in numbers': for each increase of a natural logarithmic unit (2.71828) in cycling flows, an 18% decrease in injury odds was found. Conversely, increased motor traffic volume is associated with higher odds of cycling injury, with one logarithmic unit increase associated with a 31% increase in injury odds. Twenty-mile per hour compared with 30mph speed limits were associated with 21% lower injury odds. Residential streets were associated with reduced injury odds, and junctions with substantially higher injury odds. Bus lanes do not affect injury odds once other factors are controlled for. These data suggest that speed limits of 20 mph may reduce cycling injury risk, as may motor traffic reduction. Further, building cycle routes that generate new cycle trips should generate 'safety in numbers' benefits. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Childhood maltreatment is associated with increased risk of subclinical hypothyroidism in pregnancy.

PubMed

Moog, Nora K; Heim, Christine M; Entringer, Sonja; Kathmann, Norbert; Wadhwa, Pathik D; Buss, Claudia

2017-10-01

The critical importance of thyroid hormones for fetal development is well established. The developing fetus is dependent on the mother for adequate thyroid hormone supply, and maternal thyroid dysfunction in pregnancy may result in suboptimal fetal development. Because exposure to childhood maltreatment (CM) has been associated with thyroid dysfunction in the non-pregnant state, we sought to test the hypothesis that exposure to CM may represent a risk factor for the development of maternal hypothyroidism in pregnancy. The study was conducted in a healthy cohort of 102 pregnant mothers who were followed across the entire course of pregnancy. At each trimester thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (fT4) were measured in maternal serum. Experience of CM was assessed using the Childhood Trauma Questionnaire. After adjusting for potentially confounding variables, CM exposure was associated with increased TSH concentrations across pregnancy (F 1,94.6 =11.52, p=0.001) and with a 4- to 7-fold increased risk of TSH levels above the trimester-specific clinical cut-off values. Women with clinically elevated TSH concentrations did not differ in fT4 concentrations from women with normal TSH concentrations (p>0.1), suggesting subclinical hypothyroidism. Our findings suggest that there is a substantial and clinically relevant increased risk for thyroid dysfunction during pregnancy among women exposed to abuse or neglect in their childhood. This could potentially have adverse consequences for fetal brain development. Thus, these findings highlight the critical importance of considering CM exposure as a potential risk factor for (subclinical) hypothyroidism in pregnancy. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The impact of a private sector living wage intervention on consumption and cardiovascular disease risk factors in a middle income country.

PubMed

Rehkopf, David H; Burmaster, Katharine; Landefeld, John C; Adler-Milstein, Sarah; Flynn, Emily P; Acevedo, Maria Cecilia; Jones-Smith, Jessica C; Adler, Nancy; Fernald, Lia C H

2018-01-25

A positive association of socioeconomic position and health is well established in high-income countries. In poorer nations, however, higher income individuals often have more cardiovascular risk factors (including obesity) than do those with less income. Our study goal was to estimate the effects of receiving a living wage (340% higher income) on short-term changes in consumption and cardiovascular risk factors among low-wage workers in a middle-income country. This cross-sectional study matched workers at an apparel factory (n=105) in the Dominican Republic with those at a similar factory (n=99) nearby, 15 months after the intervention factory introduced a substantially higher living wage. Statistical matching on non-time varying individual characteristics (childhood health, childhood living conditions, work experience, demographic factors) strengthened causal inference. Primary outcomes were blood pressure (systolic and diastolic), pulse rate, body mass index and waist circumference. Secondary outcomes were dietary consumption and spending on services, consumables and durable goods. Receiving the living wage was associated with increased consumption of protein, dairy, soda and juice and sugars, but not with cardiovascular risk factors. Intervention factory workers spent more on grocery items and household durable goods. While having a higher income in a middle-income country might be expected to increase obesity and its associated health risks, the current study found no short-term negative associations. There may be possible longer-term negative health consequences of increases in consumption of soda, juice and sugars, however. It is important to consider complementary interventions to support healthy dietary intake in areas with increasing wages.