Natural disasters: Cities build their vulnerability

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Jones, Bryan

2017-04-01

Tornadoes pose a significant threat across vast portions of the US. Now research suggests that growth in the human-built environment will be more influential than climate change in driving future disaster potential.

Scientific millenarianism

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Weinberg, A.M.

Today, for the first time, scientific concerns are seriously being addressed that span future times--hundreds, even thousands, or more years in the future. One is witnessing what the author calls scientific millenarianism. Are such concerns for the distant future exercises in futility, or are they real issues that, to the everlasting gratitude of future generations, this generation has identified, warned about and even suggested how to cope with in the distant future? Can the four potential catastrophes--bolide impact, CO{sub 2} warming, radioactive wastes and thermonuclear war--be avoided by technical fixes, institutional responses, religion, or by doing nothing? These are themore » questions addressed in this paper.« less

Part-task training in the context of automation: current and future directions.

PubMed

Gutzwiller, Robert S; Clegg, Benjamin A; Blitch, John G

2013-01-01

Automation often elicits a divide-and-conquer outlook. By definition, automation has been suggested to assume control over a part or whole task that was previously performed by a human (Parasuraman & Riley, 1997). When such notions of automation are taken as grounds for training, they readily invoke a part-task training (PTT) approach. This article outlines broad functions of automation as a source of PTT and reviews the PTT literature, focusing on the potential benefits and costs related to using automation as a mechanism for PTT. The article reviews some past work in this area and suggests a path to move beyond the type of work captured by the "automation as PTT" framework. An illustrative experiment shows how automation in training and PTT are actually separable issues. PTT with automation has some utility but ultimately remains an unsatisfactory framework for the future broad potential of automation during training, and we suggest that a new conceptualization is needed.

Understanding the Association Between School Climate and Future Orientation.

PubMed

Lindstrom Johnson, Sarah; Pas, Elise; Bradshaw, Catherine P

2016-08-01

Promoting students' future orientation is inherently a goal of the educational system. Recently, it has received more explicit attention given the increased focus on career readiness. This study aimed to examine the association between school climate and adolescents' report of future orientation using data from youth (N = 27,698; 49.4 % female) across 58 high schools. Three-level hierarchical linear models indicated that perceptions of available emotional and service supports, rules and consequences, and parent engagement were positively related to adolescents' future orientation. Additionally, the school-level average future orientation was significantly related to individuals' future orientation, indicating a potential influence of contextual effects on this construct. Taken together, these findings suggest that interventions targeting school climate may hold promise for promoting future orientation.

Selective mutism: an update and suggestions for future research.

PubMed

Scott, Samantha; Beidel, Deborah C

2011-08-01

Speculation continues regarding the accurate classification of selective mutism and potential etiologic factors. Current research has shed some light on several factors that may predispose some children to this disorder, but conclusions are difficult to draw due to reliance on subjective measures, few comparison groups, and/or limited theoretical grounding. This article provides an update on recent efforts to elucidate the etiologic pathways of selective mutism and on the current debate regarding its strong overlap with anxiety disorders, most notably social phobia. An additional attempt is made to examine findings based on a developmental perspective that accounts for multiple pathways, context, and the developmental stage of the child. Emotion regulation theory is offered as a potential factor in why some children may be more vulnerable to the etiologic factors described. Suggestions for future research are offered based on this integration of information.

Measuring the lensing potential with tomographic galaxy number counts

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Montanari, Francesco; Durrer, Ruth, E-mail: francesco.montanari@unige.ch, E-mail: ruth.durrer@unige.ch

2015-10-01

We investigate how the lensing potential can be measured tomographically with future galaxy surveys using their number counts. Such a measurement is an independent test of the standard ΛCDM framework and can be used to discern modified theories of gravity. We perform a Fisher matrix forecast based on galaxy angular-redshift power spectra, assuming specifications consistent with future photometric Euclid-like surveys and spectroscopic SKA-like surveys. For the Euclid-like survey we derive a fitting formula for the magnification bias. Our analysis suggests that the cross correlation between different redshift bins is very sensitive to the lensing potential such that the survey canmore » measure the amplitude of the lensing potential at the same level of precision as other standard ΛCDM cosmological parameters.« less

Cancer Survivors’ Health Worries and Associations with Lifestyle Practices

PubMed Central

Mosher, Catherine E.; Lipkus, Isaac M.; Sloane, Richard; Kraus, William E.; Snyder, Denise Clutter; Peterson, Bercedis; Jones, Lee W.; Demark-Wahnefried, Wendy

2013-01-01

This study examined among recently diagnosed breast and prostate cancer survivors (N = 678) associations between worry about a future diagnosis of heart disease or cancer and hypothetical and actual adherence to exercise and dietary guidelines. Greater worry about future illness was reported under the hypothetical scenario of non-adherence to guidelines relative to the scenario of adherence. Worry about potential heart disease was associated with actual adherence to guidelines, whereas worry about a potential cancer diagnosis was not. Findings suggest that the motivational properties of worry should be considered when developing interventions to reduce heart disease risk among cancer survivors. PMID:18987083

Impacts of climate change and renewable energy development on habitat of an endemic squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis, in the Mojave Desert, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Inman, Richard D.; Esque, Todd C.; Nussear, Kenneth E.; Leitner, Philip; Matocq, Marjorie D.; Weisberg, Peter J.; Dilts, Thomas E.

2016-01-01

Predicting changes in species distributions under a changing climate is becoming widespread with the use of species distribution models (SDMs). The resulting predictions of future potential habitat can be cast in light of planned land use changes, such as urban expansion and energy development to identify areas with potential conflict. However, SDMs rarely incorporate an understanding of dispersal capacity, and therefore assume unlimited dispersal in potential range shifts under uncertain climate futures. We use SDMs to predict future distributions of the Mojave ground squirrel, Xerospermophilus mohavensis Merriam, and incorporate partial dispersal models informed by field data on juvenile dispersal to assess projected impact of climate change and energy development on future distributions of X. mohavensis. Our models predict loss of extant habitat, but also concurrent gains of new habitat under two scenarios of future climate change. Under the B1 emissions scenario- a storyline describing a convergent world with emphasis on curbing greenhouse gas emissions- our models predicted losses of up to 64% of extant habitat by 2080, while under the increased greenhouse gas emissions of the A2 scenario, we suggest losses of 56%. New potential habitat may become available to X. mohavensis, thereby offsetting as much as 6330 km2 (50%) of the current habitat lost. Habitat lost due to planned energy development was marginal compared to habitat lost from changing climates, but disproportionately affected current habitat. Future areas of overlap in potential habitat between the two climate change scenarios are identified and discussed in context of proposed energy development.

Lake Baikal isotope records of Holocene Central Asian precipitation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Swann, George E. A.; Mackay, Anson W.; Vologina, Elena; Jones, Matthew D.; Panizzo, Virginia N.; Leng, Melanie J.; Sloane, Hilary J.; Snelling, Andrea M.; Sturm, Michael

2018-06-01

Climate models currently provide conflicting predictions of future climate change across Central Asia. With concern over the potential for a change in water availability to impact communities and ecosystems across the region, an understanding of historical trends in precipitation is required to aid model development and assess the vulnerability of the region to future changes in the hydroclimate. Here we present a record from Lake Baikal, located in the southern Siberian region of central Asia close to the Mongolian border, which demonstrates a relationship between the oxygen isotope composition of diatom silica (δ18Odiatom) and precipitation to the region over the 20th and 21st Century. From this, we suggest that annual rates of precipitation in recent times are at their lowest for the past 10,000 years and identify significant long-term variations in precipitation throughout the early to late Holocene interval. Based on comparisons to other regional records, these trends are suggested to reflect conditions across the wider Central Asian region around Lake Baikal and highlight the potential for further changes in precipitation with future climate change.

Quantifying the effect of autonomous adaptation to global river flood projections: application to future flood risk assessments

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Youhei; Tanoue, Masahiro; Watanabe, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yukiko

2018-01-01

This study represents the first attempt to quantify the effects of autonomous adaptation on the projection of global flood hazards and to assess future flood risk by including this effect. A vulnerability scenario, which varies according to the autonomous adaptation effect for conventional disaster mitigation efforts, was developed based on historical vulnerability values derived from flood damage records and a river inundation simulation. Coupled with general circulation model outputs and future socioeconomic scenarios, potential future flood fatalities and economic loss were estimated. By including the effect of autonomous adaptation, our multimodel ensemble estimates projected a 2.0% decrease in potential flood fatalities and an 821% increase in potential economic losses by 2100 under the highest emission scenario together with a large population increase. Vulnerability changes reduced potential flood consequences by 64%-72% in terms of potential fatalities and 28%-42% in terms of potential economic losses by 2100. Although socioeconomic changes made the greatest contribution to the potential increased consequences of future floods, about a half of the increase of potential economic losses was mitigated by autonomous adaptation. There is a clear and positive relationship between the global temperature increase from the pre-industrial level and the estimated mean potential flood economic loss, while there is a negative relationship with potential fatalities due to the autonomous adaptation effect. A bootstrapping analysis suggests a significant increase in potential flood fatalities (+5.7%) without any adaptation if the temperature increases by 1.5 °C-2.0 °C, whereas the increase in potential economic loss (+0.9%) was not significant. Our method enables the effects of autonomous adaptation and additional adaptation efforts on climate-induced hazards to be distinguished, which would be essential for the accurate estimation of the cost of adaptation to climate change.

Post-compulsory Education and Training: A Modernist Project.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Chappell, Clive

1996-01-01

Explores how modernist paradigms (empiricism, rationalism, positivism, humanism, and critical theory) have shaped postcompulsory education. Suggests the potential influence of postmodernism in terms of critiquing modernist views and developing future education and training systems. (SK)

Human Influence on Tropical Cyclone Intensity

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Sobel, Adam H.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Hall, Timothy M.; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K.; Wing, Allison A.

2016-01-01

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities.

Future potential distribution of the emerging amphibian chytrid fungus under anthropogenic climate change.

PubMed

Rödder, Dennis; Kielgast, Jos; Lötters, Stefan

2010-11-01

Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.

Microbiome alterations observed in liver diseases present opportunities for potential fecal transplantation.

PubMed

Heath, Ryan D; Mir, Fazia; Ibdah, Jamal A; Tahan, Veysel

2016-11-01

Many disease processes lead to chronic liver disease, however, progress has been made regarding common findings amongst these disease processes that may suggest a path forward for treatment. In particular, common alterations in the intestinal microflora of patients with different etiologies of liver disease may provide a clue as to the pathogenesis of these disorders as well a potential therapy. Data is still scant at this point, however, what is available suggests a promising opportunity for future studies to expand upon what has been demonstrated.

Mineral resource potential map of the Bighorn Mountains Wilderness Study Area (CDCA-217), San Bernardino County, California

USGS Publications Warehouse

Matti, Jonathan C.; Cox, Brett F.; Rodriguez, Eduardo A.; Obi, Curtis M.; Powell, Robert E.; Hinkle, Margaret E.; Griscom, Andrew; Sabine, Charles; Cwick, Gary J.

1982-01-01

Geological, geochemical, and geophysical evidence, together with a review of historical mining and prospecting activities, suggests that most of the Bighorn Mountains Wilderness Study Area has low potential for the discovery of all types of mineral and energy resources-including precious and base metals, building stone and aggregate, fossil fuels, radioactive-mineral resources, and geothermal resources. Low-grade mineralization has been documented in one small area near Rattlesnake Canyon, and this area has low to moderate potential for future small-scale exploration and development of precious and base metals. Thorium and uranium enrichment have been documented in two small areas in the eastern part of the wilderness study area; these two areas have low to moderate potential for future small-scale exploration and development of radioactive-mineral resources.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bateman, Brooke L.; Pidgeon, Anna M.; Radeloff, Volker C.; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Vavrus, Stephen J.; Heglund, Patricia J.

2016-01-01

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species’ suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr−1, about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr−1). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species’ distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing.

The pace of past climate change vs. potential bird distributions and land use in the United States.

PubMed

Bateman, Brooke L; Pidgeon, Anna M; Radeloff, Volker C; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Thogmartin, Wayne E; Vavrus, Stephen J; Heglund, Patricia J

2016-03-01

Climate change may drastically alter patterns of species distributions and richness, but predicting future species patterns in occurrence is challenging. Significant shifts in distributions have already been observed, and understanding these recent changes can improve our understanding of potential future changes. We assessed how past climate change affected potential breeding distributions for landbird species in the conterminous United States. We quantified the bioclimatic velocity of potential breeding distributions, that is, the pace and direction of change for each species' suitable climate space over the past 60 years. We found that potential breeding distributions for landbirds have shifted substantially with an average velocity of 1.27 km yr(-1) , about double the pace of prior distribution shift estimates across terrestrial systems globally (0.61 km yr(-1) ). The direction of shifts was not uniform. The majority of species' distributions shifted west, northwest, and north. Multidirectional shifts suggest that changes in climate conditions beyond mean temperature were influencing distributional changes. Indeed, precipitation variables that were proxies for extreme conditions were important variables across all models. There were winners and losers in terms of the area of distributions; many species experienced contractions along west and east distribution edges, and expansions along northern distribution edges. Changes were also reflected in the potential species richness, with some regions potentially gaining species (Midwest, East) and other areas potentially losing species (Southwest). However, the degree to which changes in potential breeding distributions are manifested in actual species richness depends on landcover. Areas that have become increasingly suitable for breeding birds due to changing climate are often those attractive to humans for agriculture and development. This suggests that many areas might have supported more breeding bird species had the landscape not been altered. Our study illustrates that climate change is not only a future threat, but something birds are already experiencing. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network

Treesearch

Enric Batllori; Marc-Andre Parisien; Sean A. Parks; Max A. Moritz; Carol Miller

2017-01-01

Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform...

Computers in Education: Realizing the Potential. Report of a Research Conference, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, November 20-24, 1982.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Lesgold, Alan M., Ed.; Reif, Frederick, Ed.

The full proceedings are provided here of a conference of 40 teachers, educational researchers, and scientists from both the public and private sectors that centered on the future of computers in education and the research required to realize the computer's educational potential. A summary of the research issues considered and suggested means for…

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, T.G.; Wood, N.; Yarnal, B.; Bauer, D.H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir-Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

USGS Publications Warehouse

Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

2010-01-01

Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

Earlier Snowmelt Changes the Ratio Between Early and Late Season Forest Productivity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Knowles, J. F.; Molotch, N. P.; Trujillo, E.; Litvak, M. E.

2017-12-01

Future projections of declining snowpack and increasing potential evaporation associated with climate warming are predicted to advance the timing of snowmelt in mountain ecosystems globally. This scenario has direct implications for snowmelt-driven forest productivity, but the net effect of temporally shifting moisture dynamics is unknown with respect to the annual carbon balance. Accordingly, this study uses both satellite- and tower-based observations to document the forest productivity response to snowpack and potential evaporation variability between 1989 and 2012 throughout the southern Rocky Mountain ecoregion, USA. These results show that a combination of low snow accumulation and record high potential evaporation in 2012 resulted in the 34-year minimum ecosystem productivity that could be indicative of future conditions. Moreover, early and late season productivity were significantly and inversely related, suggesting that future shifts toward earlier or reduced snowmelt could increase late-season moisture stress to vegetation and thus restrict productivity despite a longer growing season. This relationship was further subject to modification by summer precipitation, and the controls on the early/late season productivity ratio are explored within the context of ecosystem carbon storage in the future. Any perturbation to the carbon cycle at this scale represents a potential feedback to climate change since snow-covered forests represent an important global carbon sink.

Environmental dynamics and carbon accumulation rate of a tropical peatland in Central Sumatra, Indonesia

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hapsari, Kartika Anggi; Biagioni, Siria; Jennerjahn, Tim C.; Reimer, Peter Meyer; Saad, Asmadi; Achnopha, Yudhi; Sabiham, Supiandi; Behling, Hermann

2017-08-01

Tropical peatlands are important for the global carbon cycle as they store 18% of the total global peat carbon. As they are vulnerable to changes in temperature and precipitation, a rapidly changing environment endangers peatlands and their carbon storage potential. Understanding the mechanisms of peatland carbon accumulation from studying past developments may, therefore, help to assess the future role of tropical peatlands. Using a multi-proxy palaeoecological approach, a peat core taken from the Sungai Buluh peatland in Central Sumatra has been analyzed for its pollen and spore, macro charcoal and biogeochemical composition. The result suggests that peat and C accumulation rates were driven mainly by sea level change, river water level, climatic variability and anthropogenic activities. It is also suggested that peat C accumulation in Sungai Buluh is correlated to the abundance of Freycinetia, Myrtaceae, Calophyllum, Stemonuraceae, Ficus and Euphorbiaceae. Sungai Buluh has reasonable potential for being a future global tropical peat C sinks. However, considering the impact of rapid global climate change in addition to land-use change following rapid economic growth in Indonesia, such potential may be lost. Taking advantage of available palaeoecological records and advances made in Quaternary studies, some considerations for management practice such as identification of priority taxa and conservation sites are suggested.

The potential for a new era of supersonic and hypersonic aviation

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Harris, Roy V.

1990-01-01

A new era of supersonic and hypersonic aviation is envisioned. The potential for supersonic and hypersonic flight vehicles in this new era is analyzed. Technology challenges that must be met in order to bring in this new era of flight are discussed. The current technical status and future potential are cited in the areas of aerodynamics, propulsion, and structural materials. A next major step in the development of high-speed air transportation is suggested.

Theory of Gas Adsorption in Carbon Nanostructures

DTIC Science & Technology

2003-05-20

Johnson, "Histogram reweighting and finite size Scaling study of the Lennard - Jones fluids", Fluid Phase Equilibria, 187-188, 171-191 (2001). 19.Wei...nature of matter, with enormous potential for applications. The research continues, undiminished in intensity, in our laboratories and many others...pair potential is needed than the usually assumed free space interaction. These calculations suggest a few possible directions for future research

Scientific charge-coupled devices

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Janesick, James R.; Elliott, Tom; Collins, Stewart; Blouke, Morley M.; Freeman, Jack

1987-01-01

The charge-coupled device dominates an ever-increasing variety of scientific imaging and spectroscopy applications. Recent experience indicates, however, that the full potential of CCD performance lies well beyond that realized in devices currently available.Test data suggest that major improvements are feasible in spectral response, charge collection, charge transfer, and readout noise. These properties, their measurement in existing CCDs, and their potential for future improvement are discussed in this paper.

Predisposition for Empathy, Intercultural Sensitivity, and Intentions for Using Motivational Interviewing in First Year Pharmacy Students

PubMed Central

Kavookjian, Jan; Hutchison, Amber

2017-01-01

Objective. To assess first-year pharmacy (P1) students’ predispositions (eg, perceptions for empathy, intercultural sensitivity, and motivational interviewing (MI) as a patient-centered communication skillset) and identify potential curricula content/communication skills training needs. Methods. A cross-sectional survey was used to collect students’ self-reported perceptions for empathy, intercultural sensitivity, counseling contexts, and projected future MI use. Relationships between variables were explored and logistic regression was used to evaluate intention for using MI in future patient encounters. Results. There were 134 students who participated. Higher predisposition for empathy and for intercultural sensitivity were significantly correlated. Significant predictors for applying MI in future patient encounters were sex, confidence with counseling skills, and current use of MI. Conclusion. Results suggest the need to incorporate innovative training strategies in communication skills curricula. Potential areas include empathy, intercultural sensitivity and significant predictor variables for future MI use. Further investigation in other schools is needed. PMID:29200452

Predisposition for Empathy, Intercultural Sensitivity, and Intentions for Using Motivational Interviewing in First Year Pharmacy Students.

PubMed

Ekong, Gladys; Kavookjian, Jan; Hutchison, Amber

2017-10-01

Objective. To assess first-year pharmacy (P1) students' predispositions (eg, perceptions for empathy, intercultural sensitivity, and motivational interviewing (MI) as a patient-centered communication skillset) and identify potential curricula content/communication skills training needs. Methods. A cross-sectional survey was used to collect students' self-reported perceptions for empathy, intercultural sensitivity, counseling contexts, and projected future MI use. Relationships between variables were explored and logistic regression was used to evaluate intention for using MI in future patient encounters. Results. There were 134 students who participated. Higher predisposition for empathy and for intercultural sensitivity were significantly correlated. Significant predictors for applying MI in future patient encounters were sex, confidence with counseling skills, and current use of MI. Conclusion. Results suggest the need to incorporate innovative training strategies in communication skills curricula. Potential areas include empathy, intercultural sensitivity and significant predictor variables for future MI use. Further investigation in other schools is needed.

The U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal

USGS Publications Warehouse

Bock, Andy

2017-03-16

Simulations of future climate suggest profiles of temperature and precipitation may differ significantly from those in the past. These changes in climate will likely lead to changes in the hydrologic cycle. As such, natural resource managers are in need of tools that can provide estimates of key components of the hydrologic cycle, uncertainty associated with the estimates, and limitations associated with the climate forcing data used to estimate these components. To help address this need, the U.S. Geological Survey Monthly Water Balance Model Futures Portal (https://my.usgs.gov/mows/) provides a user friendly interface to deliver hydrologic and meteorological variables for monthly historic and potential future climatic conditions across the continental United States.

Methanol as an Automotive Fuel : With Special Emphasis on Methanol-Gasoline Blends

DOT National Transportation Integrated Search

1977-04-01

This report reviews the available information on methanol as related to its potential use as an automotive fuel. Information gaps critical to assessment and future decisions are delineated and suggestions made for necessary R&D efforts. In this conte...

Is the future already here? The impact of climate change on the distribution of the eastern coral snake (Micrurus fulvius).

PubMed

Archis, Jennifer N; Akcali, Christopher; Stuart, Bryan L; Kikuchi, David; Chunco, Amanda J

2018-01-01

Anthropogenic climate change is a significant global driver of species distribution change. Although many species have undergone range expansion at their poleward limits, data on several taxonomic groups are still lacking. A common method for studying range shifts is using species distribution models to evaluate current, and predict future, distributions. Notably, many sources of 'current' climate data used in species distribution modeling use the years 1950-2000 to calculate climatic averages. However, this does not account for recent (post 2000) climate change. This study examines the influence of climate change on the eastern coral snake ( Micrurus fulvius ). Specifically, we: (1) identified the current range and suitable environment of M. fulvius in the Southeastern United States, (2) investigated the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of M. fulvius , and (3) evaluated the utility of future models in predicting recent (2001-2015) records. We used the species distribution modeling program Maxent and compared both current (1950-2000) and future (2050) climate conditions. Future climate models showed a shift in the distribution of suitable habitat across a significant portion of the range; however, results also suggest that much of the Southeastern United States will be outside the range of current conditions, suggesting that there may be no-analog environments in the future. Most strikingly, future models were more effective than the current models at predicting recent records, suggesting that range shifts may already be occurring. These results have implications for both M. fulvius and its Batesian mimics. More broadly, we recommend future Maxent studies consider using future climate data along with current data to better estimate the current distribution.

Fatigue Risk Management in Aviation Maintenance: Current Best Practices and Potential Future Countermeasures

DTIC Science & Technology

2011-06-01

consequence of an underlying medical condition, such as insomnia or sleep apnea (Kryger, Roth & Dement, 2005). In these situa- tions, medical attention will...of sleep loss for some mili- tary missions (Caldwell et al., 2009). There have been suggestions that such substances may have potential as fatigue...National Transportation Safety Board PERCLOS----Percentage of Eye Closure SAFTE -------- Sleep Activity Fatigue and Task Effectiveness SMS

Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity.

PubMed

Sobel, Adam H; Camargo, Suzana J; Hall, Timothy M; Lee, Chia-Ying; Tippett, Michael K; Wing, Allison A

2016-07-15

Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Geography and Interdisciplinary, Future Oriented Education.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Austin, C. Murray

This paper identifies issues which can best be understood within a geographic dimension and suggests how educators at all levels can help students understand the increasing interdependence in economic, political, social, and technological systems by emphasizing geography's integrative dimensions. Geography's potential as an integrating force in…

Close Call: Magic.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Journal of Adventure Education and Outdoor Leadership, 1993

1993-01-01

Staff at a residential camp for high-risk youth dealt with campers eating potentially lethal hallucinogenic mushrooms by eliminating the mushrooms instead of confronting the group and thereby jeopardizing the relationship between staff and campers. Analyzes the situation and provides suggestions for handling similar incidents in the future. (LP)

The Status of Statewide Subscription Databases

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Krueger, Karla S.

2012-01-01

This qualitative content analysis presents subscription databases available to school libraries through statewide purchases. The results may help school librarians evaluate grade and subject-area coverage, make comparisons to recommended databases, and note potential suggestions for their states to include in future contracts or for local…

Potential human impacts of overlapping land-use and climate in a sensitive dryland: a case study of the Colorado Plateau, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Copeland, Stella; Bradford, John B.; Duniway, Michael C.; Schuster, Rudy

2017-01-01

Climate and land-use interactions are likely to affect future environmental and socioeconomic conditions in drylands, which tend to be limited by water resources and prone to land degradation. We characterized the potential for interactions between land-use types and land-use and climate change in a model dryland system, the Colorado Plateau, a region with a history of climatic variability and land-use change. We analyzed the spatial and temporal trends in aridification, land-use, and recreation at the county and 10 km2 grid scales. Our results show that oil and gas development and recreation may interact due to increasing trends and overlapping areas of high intensity. Projections suggest that aridification will impact all vegetation classes, with some of the highest proportional change in the south-east. The results suggest that the rate of change and spatial pattern of land-use in the future may differ from past patterns in land-use scale and intensity.

Catalytic potential of selected metal ions for bioleaching, and potential techno-economic and environmental issues: A critical review.

PubMed

Pathak, Ashish; Morrison, Liam; Healy, Mark Gerard

2017-04-01

Bioleaching is considered to be a low-cost, eco-friendly technique for leaching valuable metals from a variety of matrixes. However, the inherent slow dissolution kinetics and low metal leaching yields have restricted its wider commercial applicability. Recent advancements in bio-hydrometallurgy have suggested that these critical issues can be successfully alleviated through the addition of a catalyst. The catalyzing properties of a variety of metals ions (Ag + , Hg ++ , Bi +++ , Cu ++ , Co ++ etc.) during bioleaching have been successfully demonstrated. In this article, the role and mechanisms of these metal species in catalyzing bioleaching from different minerals (chalcopyrite, complex sulfides, etc.) and waste materials (spent batteries) are reviewed, techno-economic and environmental challenges associated with the use of metals ions as catalysts are identified, and future prospectives are discussed. Based on the analysis, it is suggested that metal ion-catalyzed bioleaching will play a key role in the development of future industrial bio-hydrometallurgical processes. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Episodic Memory and Future Thinking During Early Childhood: Linking the Past and Future

PubMed Central

Cuevas, Kimberly; Rajan, Vinaya; Morasch, Katherine C.; Bell, Martha Ann

2015-01-01

Despite extensive examination of episodic memory and future thinking development, little is known about the concurrent emergence of these capacities during early childhood. In Experiment 1, 3-year-olds participated in an episodic memory hiding task [“what, when, where” (WWW) components] with an episodic future thinking component. In Experiment 2, a group of 4-year-olds (including children from Experiment 1) participated in the same task (different objects and locations), providing the first longitudinal investigation of episodic memory and future thinking. Although children exhibited age-related improvements in recall, recognition, and binding of the WWW episodic memory components, there were no age-related changes in episodic future thinking. At both ages, WWW episodic memory performance was higher than future thinking performance, and episodic future thinking and WWW memory components were unrelated. These findings suggest that the WWW components of episodic memory are potentially less fragile than the future components when assessed in a cognitively demanding task. PMID:25864990

Episodic memory and future thinking during early childhood: Linking the past and future.

PubMed

Cuevas, Kimberly; Rajan, Vinaya; Morasch, Katherine C; Bell, Martha Ann

2015-07-01

Despite extensive examination of episodic memory and future thinking development, little is known about the concurrent emergence of these capacities during early childhood. In Experiment 1, 3-year-olds participated in an episodic memory hiding task ("what, when, where" [WWW] components) with an episodic future thinking component. In Experiment 2, a group of 4-year-olds (including children from Experiment 1) participated in the same task (different objects and locations), providing the first longitudinal investigation of episodic memory and future thinking. Although children exhibited age-related improvements in recall, recognition, and binding of the WWW episodic memory components, there were no age-related changes in episodic future thinking. At both ages, WWW episodic memory performance was higher than future thinking performance, and episodic future thinking and WWW memory components were unrelated. These findings suggest that the WWW components of episodic memory are potentially less fragile than the future components when assessed in a cognitively demanding task. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessing the potential impacts of a changing climate on the distribution of a rabies virus vector

PubMed Central

Piaggio, Antoinette J.

2018-01-01

Common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) occur throughout much of South America to northern México. Vampire bats have not been documented in recent history in the United States, but have been documented within about 50 km of the U.S. state of Texas. Vampire bats feed regularly on the blood of mammals and can transmit rabies virus to native species and livestock, causing impacts on the health of prey. Thus cattle producers, wildlife management agencies, and other stakeholders have expressed concerns about whether vampire bats might spread into the southern United States. On the other hand, concerns about vampire-borne rabies can also result in wanton destruction at bat roosts in areas occupied by vampire bats, but also in areas not known to be occupied by this species. This can in turn negatively affect some bat roosts, populations, and species that are of conservation concern, including vampire bats. To better understand the current and possible future distribution of vampire bats in North America and help mitigate future cattle management problems, we used 7,094 vampire bat occurrence records from North America and species distribution modeling (SDM) to map the potential distribution of vampire bats in North America under current and future climate change scenarios. We analysed and mapped the potential distribution of this species using 5 approaches to species distribution modeling: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy. We then projected these models into 17 “worst-case” future climate scenarios for year 2070 to generate hypotheses about how the vampire bat distribution in North America might change in the future. Of the variables used in this analysis, minimum temperature of the coldest month had the highest variable importance using all 5 SDM approaches. These results suggest two potential near-future routes of vampire bat dispersal into the U.S., one via southern Texas, and a second into southern Florida. Some of our SDM models support the hypothesis that suitable habitat for vampire bats may currently exist in parts of the México–U.S. borderlands, including extreme southern portions of Texas, as well as in southern Florida. However, this analysis also suggests that extensive expansion into the south-eastern and south-western U.S. over the coming ~60 years appears unlikely. PMID:29466401

Assessing the potential impacts of a changing climate on the distribution of a rabies virus vector.

PubMed

Hayes, Mark A; Piaggio, Antoinette J

2018-01-01

Common vampire bats (Desmodus rotundus) occur throughout much of South America to northern México. Vampire bats have not been documented in recent history in the United States, but have been documented within about 50 km of the U.S. state of Texas. Vampire bats feed regularly on the blood of mammals and can transmit rabies virus to native species and livestock, causing impacts on the health of prey. Thus cattle producers, wildlife management agencies, and other stakeholders have expressed concerns about whether vampire bats might spread into the southern United States. On the other hand, concerns about vampire-borne rabies can also result in wanton destruction at bat roosts in areas occupied by vampire bats, but also in areas not known to be occupied by this species. This can in turn negatively affect some bat roosts, populations, and species that are of conservation concern, including vampire bats. To better understand the current and possible future distribution of vampire bats in North America and help mitigate future cattle management problems, we used 7,094 vampire bat occurrence records from North America and species distribution modeling (SDM) to map the potential distribution of vampire bats in North America under current and future climate change scenarios. We analysed and mapped the potential distribution of this species using 5 approaches to species distribution modeling: logistic regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, boosted regression trees, random forest, and maximum entropy. We then projected these models into 17 "worst-case" future climate scenarios for year 2070 to generate hypotheses about how the vampire bat distribution in North America might change in the future. Of the variables used in this analysis, minimum temperature of the coldest month had the highest variable importance using all 5 SDM approaches. These results suggest two potential near-future routes of vampire bat dispersal into the U.S., one via southern Texas, and a second into southern Florida. Some of our SDM models support the hypothesis that suitable habitat for vampire bats may currently exist in parts of the México-U.S. borderlands, including extreme southern portions of Texas, as well as in southern Florida. However, this analysis also suggests that extensive expansion into the south-eastern and south-western U.S. over the coming ~60 years appears unlikely.

Endogenous opioid system: a promising target for future smoking cessation medications.

PubMed

Norman, Haval; D'Souza, Manoranjan S

2017-05-01

Nicotine addiction continues to be a health challenge across the world. Despite several approved medications, smokers continue to relapse. Several human and animal studies have evaluated the role of the endogenous opioid system as a potential target for smoking cessation medications. In this review, studies that have elucidated the role of the mu (MORs), delta (DORs), and kappa (KORs) opioid receptors in nicotine reward, nicotine withdrawal, and reinstatement of nicotine seeking will be discussed. Additionally, the review will discuss discrepancies in the literature and therapeutic potential of the endogenous opioid system, and suggest studies to address gaps in knowledge with respect to the role of the opioid receptors in nicotine dependence. Data available till date suggest that blockade of the MORs and DORs decreased the rewarding effects of nicotine, while activation of the MORs and DORs decreased nicotine withdrawal-induced aversive effects. In contrast, activation of the KORs decreased the rewarding effects of nicotine, while blockade of the KORs decreased nicotine withdrawal-induced aversive effects. Interestingly, blockade of the MORs and KORs attenuated reinstatement of nicotine seeking. In humans, MOR antagonists have shown benefits in select subpopulations of smokers and further investigation is required to realize their full therapeutic potential. Future work must assess the influence of polymorphisms in opioid receptor-linked genes in nicotine dependence, which will help in both identifying individuals vulnerable to nicotine addiction and the development of opioid-based smoking cessation medications. Overall, the endogenous opioid system continues to be a promising target for future smoking cessation medications.

Emerging issues and future directions of the field of health communication.

PubMed

Hannawa, Annegret F; Kreps, Gary L; Paek, Hye-Jin; Schulz, Peter J; Smith, Sandi; Street, Richard L

2014-01-01

The interdisciplinary intersections between communication science and health-related fields are pervasive, with numerous differences in regard to epistemology, career planning, funding perspectives, educational goals, and cultural orientations. This article identifies and elaborates on these challenges with illustrative examples. Furthermore, concrete suggestions for future scholarship are recommended to facilitate compatible, coherent, and interdisciplinary health communication inquiry. The authors hope that this article helps current and future generations of health communication scholars to make more informed decisions when facing some of the challenges discussed in this article so that they will be able to seize the interdisciplinary and international potential of this unique and important field of study.

Past, present and future targets for immunotherapy in ovarian cancer

PubMed Central

Schwab, Carlton L; English, Diana P; Roque, Dana M; Pasternak, Monica; Santin, Alessandro D

2015-01-01

Ovarian cancer is the leading cause of death from gynecologic malignancy in the US. Treatments have improved with conventional cytotoxic chemotherapy and advanced surgical techniques but disease recurrence is common and fatal in nearly all cases. Current evidence suggests that the immune system and its ability to recognize and eliminate microscopic disease is paramount in preventing recurrence. Ovarian cancer immunotherapy is targeting tumors through active, passive and adoptive approaches. The goal of immunotherapy is to balance the activation of the immune system against cancer while preventing the potential for tremendous toxicity elicited by immune modulation. In this paper we will review the different immunotherapies available for ovarian cancer as well as current ongoing studies and potential future directions. PMID:25524384

CRISPR-mediated Ophthalmic Genome Surgery.

PubMed

Cho, Galaxy Y; Abdulla, Yazeed; Sengillo, Jesse D; Justus, Sally; Schaefer, Kellie A; Bassuk, Alexander G; Tsang, Stephen H; Mahajan, Vinit B

2017-09-01

Clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats (CRISPR) is a genome engineering system with great potential for clinical applications due to its versatility and programmability. This review highlights the development and use of CRISPR-mediated ophthalmic genome surgery in recent years. Diverse CRISPR techniques are in development to target a wide array of ophthalmic conditions, including inherited and acquired conditions. Preclinical disease modeling and recent successes in gene editing suggest potential efficacy of CRISPR as a therapeutic for inherited conditions. In particular, the treatment of Leber congenital amaurosis with CRISPR-mediated genome surgery is expected to reach clinical trials in the near future. Treatment options for inherited retinal dystrophies are currently limited. CRISPR-mediated genome surgery methods may be able to address this unmet need in the future.

Warming increases the risk of civil war in Africa.

PubMed

Burke, Marshall B; Miguel, Edward; Satyanath, Shanker; Dykema, John A; Lobell, David B

2009-12-08

Armed conflict within nations has had disastrous humanitarian consequences throughout much of the world. Here we undertake the first comprehensive examination of the potential impact of global climate change on armed conflict in sub-Saharan Africa. We find strong historical linkages between civil war and temperature in Africa, with warmer years leading to significant increases in the likelihood of war. When combined with climate model projections of future temperature trends, this historical response to temperature suggests a roughly 54% increase in armed conflict incidence by 2030, or an additional 393,000 battle deaths if future wars are as deadly as recent wars. Our results suggest an urgent need to reform African governments' and foreign aid donors' policies to deal with rising temperatures.

Past and future drought in Mongolia.

PubMed

Hessl, Amy E; Anchukaitis, Kevin J; Jelsema, Casey; Cook, Benjamin; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Leland, Caroline; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Pederson, Neil; Tian, Hanqin; Hayles, Laia Andreu

2018-03-01

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO 2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming.

Past and future drought in Mongolia

PubMed Central

Hessl, Amy E.; Anchukaitis, Kevin J.; Jelsema, Casey; Cook, Benjamin; Byambasuren, Oyunsanaa; Leland, Caroline; Nachin, Baatarbileg; Pederson, Neil; Tian, Hanqin; Hayles, Laia Andreu

2018-01-01

The severity of recent droughts in semiarid regions is increasingly attributed to anthropogenic climate change, but it is unclear whether these moisture anomalies exceed those of the past and how past variability compares to future projections. On the Mongolian Plateau, a recent decade-long drought that exceeded the variability in the instrumental record was associated with economic, social, and environmental change. We evaluate this drought using an annual reconstruction of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) spanning the last 2060 years in concert with simulations of past and future drought through the year 2100 CE. We show that although the most recent drought and pluvial were highly unusual in the last 2000 years, exceeding the 900-year return interval in both cases, these events were not unprecedented in the 2060-year reconstruction, and events of similar duration and severity occur in paleoclimate, historical, and future climate simulations. The Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble suggests a drying trend until at least the middle of the 21st century, when this trend reverses as a consequence of elevated precipitation. Although the potential direct effects of elevated CO2 on plant water use efficiency exacerbate uncertainties about future hydroclimate trends, these results suggest that future drought projections for Mongolia are unlikely to exceed those of the last two millennia, despite projected warming. PMID:29546236

Problems and Issues Related to the Data Game.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Huff, Robert A.

Ways that data can be misused in establishing accountability of public higher education are described along with approaches to help alleviate the potential adversary relationships between postsecondary leaders and state agency personnel. It is suggested that scholars fear a future in which educational decisions may be made according to numbers or…

Genetic and environmental limitations on crop responses to elevated [CO2

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

While the future crop growing environment is likely to be warmer and with more variable water availability, the stimulation of C3 photosynthesis by elevated CO2 concentration provides a potential benefit of global climate change. However, experimental field studies suggest that C3 crops fall short o...

Teaching, Learning, and Sharing Openly Online

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

O'Byrne, W. Ian; Roberts, Verena; LaBonte, Randy; Graham, Lee

2015-01-01

Open learning is becoming a critical focus for K-12 technology-supported programs as the importance of digital literacy and digital freedoms for all learners grows. This article describes current open learning policy, open educational resources and potential implications for open practice and ends with suggestions for future research in open…

Logo's Problem-Solving Potential.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Dale, Evelyn J.

Given the uncertainty of the future and the rapidity with which computer technology is changing, a generalist position on the objectives of educational computing is desirable. This position insists that learning how to think and solve problems is the foundation of education and suggests that basic learning needs to be an integral part of the…

Assessing forest vulnerability and the potential distribution of pine beetles under current and future climate scenarios in the Interior West of the US

USGS Publications Warehouse

Evangelista, P.H.; Kumar, S.; Stohlgren, T.J.; Young, N.E.

2011-01-01

The aim of our study was to estimate forest vulnerability and potential distribution of three bark beetles (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) under current and projected climate conditions for 2020 and 2050. Our study focused on the mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), western pine beetle (Dendroctonus brevicomis), and pine engraver (Ips pini). This study was conducted across eight states in the Interior West of the US covering approximately 2.2millionkm2 and encompassing about 95% of the Rocky Mountains in the contiguous US. Our analyses relied on aerial surveys of bark beetle outbreaks that occurred between 1991 and 2008. Occurrence points for each species were generated within polygons created from the aerial surveys. Current and projected climate scenarios were acquired from the WorldClim database and represented by 19 bioclimatic variables. We used Maxent modeling technique fit with occurrence points and current climate data to model potential beetle distributions and forest vulnerability. Three available climate models, each having two emission scenarios, were modeled independently and results averaged to produce two predictions for 2020 and two predictions for 2050 for each analysis. Environmental parameters defined by current climate models were then used to predict conditions under future climate scenarios, and changes in different species' ranges were calculated. Our results suggested that the potential distribution for bark beetles under current climate conditions is extensive, which coincides with infestation trends observed in the last decade. Our results predicted that suitable habitats for the mountain pine beetle and pine engraver beetle will stabilize or decrease under future climate conditions, while habitat for the western pine beetle will continue to increase over time. The greatest increase in habitat area was for the western pine beetle, where one climate model predicted a 27% increase by 2050. In contrast, the predicted habitat of the mountain pine beetle from another climate model suggested a decrease in habitat areas as great as 46% by 2050. Generally, 2020 and 2050 models that tested the three climate scenarios independently had similar trends, though one climate scenario for the western pine beetle produced contrasting results. Ranges for all three species of bark beetles shifted considerably geographically suggesting that some host species may become more vulnerable to beetle attack in the future, while others may have a reduced risk over time. ?? 2011 Elsevier B.V.

Geothermal development plan: Cochise/Santa Cruz Counties

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

White, D. H.; Goldstone, L. A.

1982-08-01

The regional market potential for utilizing geothermal energy was evaluated. Three potential geothermal resource areas with potential for resource temperatures less than 900C (1940F) were identified. Population growth rates are expected to average 3% per year over the next 30 years in Willcox; Bowie and San Simon are expected to grow much slower. Regional employment is based on agriculture and copper mining, though future growth in trade, services and international trade is expected. A regional energy use analysis is included. Urban use, copper mining and agriculture are the principal water users in the region and substantial reductions in water use are anticipated in the future. The development plan identifies potential geothermal energy users in the region. Geothermal energy utilization projections suggest that by the year 2000, geothermal energy might economically provide the energy equivalent of 3,250,000 barrels of oil per year to the industrial sector. In addition, geothermal energy utilization might help stimulate an agricultural and livestock processing industry.

Towards an Immunophenotype of Schizophrenia: Progress, Potential Mechanisms, and Future Directions

PubMed Central

Miller, Brian J; Goldsmith, David R

2017-01-01

The evidence to date, coupled with advances in immunology and genetics has afforded the field an unparalleled opportunity to investigate the hypothesis that a subset of patients with schizophrenia may manifest an immunophenotype, toward new potential diagnostics and therapeutics to reduce risk, alleviate symptoms, and improve quality of life in both at-risk populations and patients with established schizophrenia. In this paper, we will first summarize the findings on immune dysfunction in schizophrenia, including (1) genetic, prenatal, and premorbid immune risk factors and (2) immune markers across the clinical course of the disorder, including cytokines; C-reactive protein; immune cells; antibodies, autoantibodies and comorbid autoimmune disorders; complement; oxidative stress; imaging of neuroinflammation; infections; and clinical trials of anti-inflammatory agents and immunotherapy. We will then discuss a potential mechanistic framework toward increased understanding of a potential schizophrenia immunophenotype. We will then critically appraise the existing literature, and discuss suggestions for the future research agenda in this area that are needed to rigorously evaluate this hypothesis. PMID:27654215

Climate change and the distribution and conservation of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cuyckens, G. A. E.; Christie, D. A.; Domic, A. I.; Malizia, L. R.; Renison, D.

2016-02-01

Climate change is becoming an increasing threat to biodiversity. Consequently, methods for delineation, establishment and management of protected areas must consider the species' future distribution in response to future climate conditions. Biodiversity in high altitude semiarid regions may be particularly threatened by future climate change. In this study we assess the main environmental variables that best explain present day presence of the world's highest elevation woodlands in the South American Altiplano, and model how climate change may affect the future distribution of this unique ecosystem under different climate change scenarios. These woodlands are dominated by Polylepis tarapacana (Rosaceae), a species that forms unique biological communities with important conservation value. Our results indicate that five environmental variables are responsible for 91% and 90.3% of the present and future P. tarapacana distribution models respectively, and suggest that at the end of the 21st century, there will be a significant reduction (56%) in the potential habitat for this species due to more arid conditions. Since it is predicted that P. tarapacana's potential distribution will be severely reduced in the future, we propose a new network of national protected areas across this species distribution range in order to insure the future conservation of this unique ecosystem. Based on an extensive literature review we identify research topics and recommendations for on-ground conservation and management of P. tarapacana woodlands.

The past, present, and future of the U.S. electric power sector: Examining regulatory changes using multivariate time series approaches

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Binder, Kyle Edwin

The U.S. energy sector has undergone continuous change in the regulatory, technological, and market environments. These developments show no signs of slowing. Accordingly, it is imperative that energy market regulators and participants develop a strong comprehension of market dynamics and the potential implications of their actions. This dissertation contributes to a better understanding of the past, present, and future of U.S. energy market dynamics and interactions with policy. Advancements in multivariate time series analysis are employed in three related studies of the electric power sector. Overall, results suggest that regulatory changes have had and will continue to have important implications for the electric power sector. The sector, however, has exhibited adaptability to past regulatory changes and is projected to remain resilient in the future. Tests for constancy of the long run parameters in a vector error correction model are applied to determine whether relationships among coal inventories in the electric power sector, input prices, output prices, and opportunity costs have remained constant over the past 38 years. Two periods of instability are found, the first following railroad deregulation in the U.S. and the second corresponding to a number of major regulatory changes in the electric power and natural gas sectors. Relationships among Renewable Energy Credit prices, electricity prices, and natural gas prices are estimated using a vector error correction model. Results suggest that Renewable Energy Credit prices do not completely behave as previously theorized in the literature. Potential reasons for the divergence between theory and empirical evidence are the relative immaturity of current markets and continuous institutional intervention. Potential impacts of future CO2 emissions reductions under the Clean Power Plan on economic and energy sector activity are estimated. Conditional forecasts based on an outlined path for CO2 emissions are developed from a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model for a large dataset. Unconditional and conditional forecasts are compared for U.S. industrial production, real personal income, and estimated factors. Results suggest that economic growth will be slower under the Clean Power Plan than it would otherwise; however, CO2 emissions reductions and economic growth can be achieved simultaneously.

Perspectives on advance care planning among patients recently requiring non-invasive ventilation for acute respiratory failure: A qualitative study using thematic analysis.

PubMed

Smith, Tracy A; Disler, Rebecca T; Jenkins, Christine R; Ingham, Jane M; Davidson, Patricia M

2017-06-01

Patients requiring non-invasive ventilation for acute-on-chronic respiratory failure due to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease or heart failure exacerbations may have a poor prognosis underscoring the importance of advance care planning. We aimed to describe attitudes to, and experiences of, discussing the future among patients recently treated with non-invasive ventilation. Qualitative research using thematic analysis. Tertiary teaching hospital. Patients with acute hypercapnic respiratory failure requiring non-invasive ventilation. Individuals recently treated with non-invasive ventilation describe feeling the future is beyond their control and instead controlled by their illness. Participants often recognised their poor prognosis but avoided discussing some difficult topics. The majority preferred not to undergo cardiopulmonary resuscitation but most had not discussed this with healthcare professionals. When participants voiced concerns about their future health to family members, they were met with polarised responses. Some encountered willingness for further discussion, while others met deflection, deterring further conversation. An overarching narrative of 'Looking through my illness to an uncertain but concerning future' unites these themes. This study suggests opportunities and barriers for advance care planning in individuals with chronic disease. Patients' understanding of their prognosis and their attitudes to cardiopulmonary resuscitation suggests an opportunity for advance care planning. Structuring discussions around patients' preferences for care during future exacerbations may foster a sense of control over the future despite illness. The diversity of familial responses to patients' concerns about their future health has implications for advance care planning. These findings have the potential to improve care for patients with respiratory failure and suggest an important ongoing research agenda.

Spontaneous innovation for future deception in a male chimpanzee.

PubMed

Osvath, Mathias; Karvonen, Elin

2012-01-01

The ability to invent means to deceive others, where the deception lies in the perceptually or contextually detached future, appears to require the coordination of sophisticated cognitive skills toward a single goal. Meanwhile innovation for a current situation has been observed in a wide range of species. Planning, on the one hand, and the social cognition required for deception on the other, have been linked to one another, both from a co-evolutionary and a neuroanatomical perspective. Innovation and deception have also been suggested to be connected in their nature of relying on novelty. We report on systematic observations suggesting innovation for future deception by a captive male chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes). As an extension of previously described behaviour--caching projectiles for later throwing at zoo visitors--the chimpanzee, again in advance, manufactured concealments from hay, as well as used naturally occurring concealments. All were placed near the visitors' observation area, allowing the chimpanzee to make throws before the crowd could back off. We observed what was likely the first instance of this innovation. Further observations showed that the creation of future-oriented concealments became the significantly preferred strategy. What is more, the chimpanzee appeared consistently to combine two deceptive strategies: hiding projectiles and inhibiting dominance display behaviour. The findings suggest that chimpanzees can represent the future behaviours of others while those others are not present, as well as take actions in the current situation towards such potential future behaviours. Importantly, the behaviour of the chimpanzee produced a future event, rather than merely prepared for an event that had been reliably re-occurring in the past. These findings might indicate that the chimpanzee recombined episodic memories in perceptual simulations.

Quantifying the transmission potential of pandemic influenza

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chowell, Gerardo; Nishiura, Hiroshi

2008-03-01

This article reviews quantitative methods to estimate the basic reproduction number of pandemic influenza, a key threshold quantity to help determine the intensity of interventions required to control the disease. Although it is difficult to assess the transmission potential of a probable future pandemic, historical epidemiologic data is readily available from previous pandemics, and as a reference quantity for future pandemic planning, mathematical and statistical analyses of historical data are crucial. In particular, because many historical records tend to document only the temporal distribution of cases or deaths (i.e. epidemic curve), our review focuses on methods to maximize the utility of time-evolution data and to clarify the detailed mechanisms of the spread of influenza. First, we highlight structured epidemic models and their parameter estimation method which can quantify the detailed disease dynamics including those we cannot observe directly. Duration-structured epidemic systems are subsequently presented, offering firm understanding of the definition of the basic and effective reproduction numbers. When the initial growth phase of an epidemic is investigated, the distribution of the generation time is key statistical information to appropriately estimate the transmission potential using the intrinsic growth rate. Applications of stochastic processes are also highlighted to estimate the transmission potential using similar data. Critically important characteristics of influenza data are subsequently summarized, followed by our conclusions to suggest potential future methodological improvements.

Projected changes in daily fire spread across Canada over the next century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wang, Xianli; Parisien, Marc-André; Taylor, Steve W.; Candau, Jean-Noël; Stralberg, Diana; Marshall, Ginny A.; Little, John M.; Flannigan, Mike D.

2017-02-01

In the face of climate change, predicting and understanding future fire regimes across Canada is a high priority for wildland fire research and management. Due in large part to the difficulties in obtaining future daily fire weather projections, one of the major challenges in predicting future fire activity is to estimate how much of the change in weather potential could translate into on-the-ground fire spread. As a result, past studies have used monthly, annual, or multi-decadal weather projections to predict future fires, thereby sacrificing information relevant to day-to-day fire spread. Using climate projections from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), historical weather observations, MODIS fire detection data, and the national fire database of Canada, this study investigated potential changes in the number of active burning days of wildfires by relating ‘spread days’ to patterns of daily fire-conducive weather. Results suggest that climate change over the next century may have significant impacts on fire spread days in almost all parts of Canada’s forested landmass; the number of fire spread days could experience a 2-to-3-fold increase under a high CO2 forcing scenario in eastern Canada, and a greater than 50% increase in western Canada, where the fire potential is already high. The change in future fire spread is critical in understanding fire regime changes, but is also imminently relevant to fire management operations and in fire risk mitigation.

Modeling the yield potential of dryland canola under current and future climates in California

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

George, N.; Kaffka, S.; Beeck, C.; Bucaram, S.; Zhang, J.

2012-12-01

Models predict that the climate of California will become hotter, drier and more variable under future climate change scenarios. This will lead to both increased irrigation demand and reduced irrigation water availability. In addition, it is predicted that most common Californian crops will suffer a concomitant decline in productivity. To remain productive and economically viable, future agricultural systems will need to have greater water use efficiency, tolerance of high temperatures, and tolerance of more erratic temperature and rainfall patterns. Canola (Brassica napus) is the third most important oilseed globally, supporting large and well-established agricultural industries in Canada, Europe and Australia. It is an agronomically useful and economically valuable crop, with multiple end markets, that can be grown in California as a dryland winter rotation with little to no irrigation demand. This gives canola great potential as a new crop for Californian farmers both now and as the climate changes. Given practical and financial limitations it is not always possible to immediately or widely evaluate a crop in a new region. Crop production models are therefore valuable tools for assessing the potential of new crops, better targeting further field research, and refining research questions. APSIM is a modular modeling framework developed by the Agricultural Production Systems Research Unit in Australia, it combines biophysical and management modules to simulate cropping systems. This study was undertaken to examine the yield potential of Australian canola varieties having different water requirements and maturity classes in California using APSIM. The objective of the work was to identify the agricultural regions of California most ideally suited to the production of Australian cultivars of canola and to simulate the production of canola in these regions to estimate yield-potential. This will establish whether the introduction and in-field evaluation of better-adapted canola varieties can be justified, and the potential value of a California canola industry both now and in the future. Winter annual crops like canola use rainfall in a Mediterranean climate like California more efficiently than spring or summer crops. Our results suggest that under current production costs and seed prices, dry farmed canola will have good potential in certain areas of the California. Canola yields decline with annual winter precipitation, however economically viable yields are still achieved at relatively precipitation levels (200 mm). Results from simulation, combined with related economic modeling (reported elsewhere) suggest that canola will be viable in a variety of production systems in the northern Sacramento Valley and some coastal locations, even under drier future climate scenarios. The in-field evaluation of Australian canola varieties should contribute to maintain or improving resource use efficiency and farm profitability.

A Primer on Audience Response Systems: Current Applications and Future Considerations

PubMed Central

Robinson, Evan

2008-01-01

Audience response systems (ARSs) are an increasingly popular tool in higher education for promoting interactivity, gathering feedback, preassessing knowledge, and assessing students' understanding of lecture concepts. Instructors in numerous disciplines are realizing the pedagogical value of these systems. Actual research on ARS usage within pharmacy education is sparse. In this paper, the health professions literature on uses of ARSs is reviewed and a primer on the issues, benefits, and potential uses within pharmacy education is presented. Future areas of educational research on ARS instructional strategies are also suggested. PMID:19002277

Advanced electrostatic ion thruster for space propulsion

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Masek, T. D.; Macpherson, D.; Gelon, W.; Kami, S.; Poeschel, R. L.; Ward, J. W.

1978-01-01

The suitability of the baseline 30 cm thruster for future space missions was examined. Preliminary design concepts for several advanced thrusters were developed to assess the potential practical difficulties of a new design. Useful methodologies were produced for assessing both planetary and earth orbit missions. Payload performance as a function of propulsion system technology level and cost sensitivity to propulsion system technology level are among the topics assessed. A 50 cm diameter thruster designed to operate with a beam voltage of about 2400 V is suggested to satisfy most of the requirements of future space missions.

Engineering photosynthetic organisms for the production of biohydrogen

DOE PAGES

Dubini, Alexandra; Ghirardi, Maria L.

2014-03-27

Oxygenic photosynthetic organisms such as green algae are capable of absorbing sunlight and converting the chemical energy into hydrogen gas. This process takes advantage of the photosynthetic apparatus of these organisms which links water oxidation to H 2 production. Biological H 2 has therefore the potential to be an alternative fuel of the future and shows great promise for generating large scale sustainable energy. Microalgae are able to produce H 2 under light anoxic or dark anoxic condition by activating 3 different pathways that utilize the hydrogenases as catalysts. In this review, we highlight the principal barriers that prevent hydrogenmore » production in green algae and how those limitations are being addressed, through metabolic and genetic engineering. We also discuss the major challenges and bottlenecks facing the development of future commercial algal photobiological systems for H 2 production. Lastly we provide suggestions for future strategies and potential new techniques to be developed towards an integrated system with optimized hydrogen production.« less

Disturbance Distance: Combining a process based ecosystem model and remote sensing data to map the vulnerability of U.S. forested ecosystems to potentially altered disturbance rates

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dolan, K. A.

2015-12-01

Disturbance plays a critical role in shaping the structure and function of forested ecosystems as well as the ecosystem services they provide, including but not limited to: carbon storage, biodiversity habitat, water quality and flow, and land atmosphere exchanges of energy and water. In addition, recent studies suggest that disturbance rates may increase in the future under altered climate and land use scenarios. Thus understanding how vulnerable forested ecosystems are to potential changes in disturbance rates is of high importance. This study calculated the theoretical threshold rate of disturbance for which forest ecosystems could no longer be sustained (λ*) across the Coterminous U.S. using an advanced process based ecosystem model (ED). Published rates of disturbance (λ) in 50 study sites were obtained from the North American Forest Disturbance (NAFD) program. Disturbance distance (λ* - λ) was calculated for each site by differencing the model based threshold under current climate conditions and average observed rates of disturbance over the last quarter century. Preliminary results confirm all sample forest sites have current average rates of disturbance below λ*, but there were interesting patterns in the recorded disturbance distances. In general western sites had much smaller disturbance distances, suggesting higher vulnerability to change, while eastern sites showed larger buffers. Ongoing work is being conducted to assess the vulnerability of these sites in the context of potential future changes by propagating scenarios of future climate and land-use change through the analysis.

Staff and Student Experiences of Dialogue Days, a Student Engagement Activity

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Asghar, Mandy

2016-01-01

This paper reports the findings from a descriptive phenomenological exploration of the lived experience of dialogue days, a student engagement activity, from the perspectives of staff and students. I suggest that dialogue days enhance the relational and emotional aspects of learning with the potential to impact on future student engagement and…

Life Cycles, Educational Attainment and Labor Markets.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Winsborough, H.H., Sweet, J.A.

Two social changes are cited as particularly important to the projection of college enrollment trends. One is the rising educational attainment of the parents of future potential college attenders; the other is the fact that declines in fertility accompany declines in average family size. Overall, the illustration in this paper suggests that the…

Affordances of Augmented Reality in Science Learning: Suggestions for Future Research

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Cheng, Kun-Hung; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2013-01-01

Augmented reality (AR) is currently considered as having potential for pedagogical applications. However, in science education, research regarding AR-aided learning is in its infancy. To understand how AR could help science learning, this review paper firstly has identified two major approaches of utilizing AR technology in science education,…

The Future of Performance-Enhancing Substances in Sport.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Bahrke, Michael S.; Yesalis, Charles E.

2002-01-01

Discusses the use of performance-enhancing substances in athletics, focusing on the use-detection race, burgeoning new products and off-label uses, and ways to combat the problem. The article suggests drug education programs, particularly those for adolescent athletes, have the potential to change behavior and be more cost-effective than further…

International Education and IB Programmes: Worldwide Expansion and Potential Cultural Dissonance

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Drake, Barry

2004-01-01

It has been suggested that the International Baccalaureate Organization could be expected to "influence" as many as 100 million people in the foreseeable future. This article focuses on some of the cultural dissonances that may be produced from attempts to "clone" on to non-Eurocentric models, educational systems and methodologies designed to…

An instrument thermal data base system. [for future shuttle missions

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bartoszek, J. T.; Csigi, K. I.; Ollendorf, S.; Oberright, J. E.

1981-01-01

The rationale for the implementation of an Instrument Thermal Data Base System (ITDBS) is discussed and the potential application of a data base management system in support of future space missions, the design of scientific instruments needed, and the potential payload groupings is described. Two basic data files are suggested, the first containing a detailed narrative information list pertaining to design configurations and optimum performance of each instrument, and the second consisting of a description of the parameters pertinent to the instruments' thermal control and design in the form of a summary record of coded information, and serving as a recall record. The applicability of a data request sheet for preliminary planning is described and is concluded that the proposed system may additionally prove to be a method of inventory control.

Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research.

PubMed

Endres, Megan L; Camp, Richaurd; Milner, Morgan

2015-01-01

We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of tolerance of ambiguity (TA) by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306). In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103) did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA's situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research, and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making.

Evaluation of advanced propulsion options for the next manned transportation system: Propulsion evolution study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Spears, L. T.; Kramer, R. D.

1990-01-01

The objectives were to examine launch vehicle applications and propulsion requirements for potential future manned space transportation systems and to support planning toward the evolution of Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) and Space Transportation Main Engine (STME) engines beyond their current or initial launch vehicle applications. As a basis for examinations of potential future manned launch vehicle applications, we used three classes of manned space transportation concepts currently under study: Space Transportation System Evolution, Personal Launch System (PLS), and Advanced Manned Launch System (AMLS). Tasks included studies of launch vehicle applications and requirements for hydrogen-oxygen rocket engines; the development of suggestions for STME engine evolution beyond the mid-1990's; the development of suggestions for STME evolution beyond the Advanced Launch System (ALS) application; the study of booster propulsion options, including LOX-Hydrocarbon options; the analysis of the prospects and requirements for utilization of a single engine configuration over the full range of vehicle applications, including manned vehicles plus ALS and Shuttle C; and a brief review of on-going and planned LOX-Hydrogen propulsion technology activities.

Group size adjustment to ecological demand in a cooperative breeder.

PubMed

Zöttl, Markus; Frommen, Joachim G; Taborsky, Michael

2013-04-07

Environmental factors can determine which group size will maximize the fitness of group members. This is particularly important in cooperative breeders, where group members often serve different purposes. Experimental studies are yet lacking to check whether ecologically mediated need for help will change the propensity of dominant group members to accept immigrants. Here, we manipulated the perceived risk of predation for dominant breeders of the cooperatively breeding cichlid fish Neolamprologus pulcher to test their response to unrelated and previously unknown immigrants. Potential immigrants were more readily accepted if groups were exposed to fish predators or egg predators than to herbivorous fish or control situations lacking predation risk. Our data are consistent with both risk dilution and helping effects. Egg predators were presented before spawning, which might suggest that the fish adjust acceptance rates also to a potential future threat. Dominant group members of N. pulcher apparently consider both present and future need of help based on ecological demand. This suggests that acceptance of immigrants and, more generally, tolerance of group members on demand could be a widespread response to ecological conditions in cooperatively breeding animals.

Safety of disease-modifying drugs for multiple sclerosis in pregnancy: current challenges and future considerations for effective pharmacovigilance.

PubMed

Lu, Ellen; Wang, Bing Wei; Guimond, Colleen; Synnes, Anne; Sadovnick, A Dessa; Dahlgren, Leanne; Traboulsee, Anthony; Tremlett, Helen

2013-03-01

When contemplating a pregnancy, women treated for multiple sclerosis (MS) with a disease-modifying drug must decide to discontinue their medication before conception or risk exposing their unborn child to potential drug toxicity. Few studies exist as reference for patients and physicians, and of those available, the majority are less than ideal due to real-world constraints, ethical issues and methodological shortcomings. The authors provide a brief summary of existing animal and human data with current recommendations regarding the safety of IFN-β, glatiramer acetate, natalizumab, mitoxantrone, fingolimod and teriflunomide during pregnancy and lactation in women with MS. We also assess the quality, strengths and limitations of the existing studies including challenges with study design. The investigation of outcomes such as spontaneous abortion and congenital anomalies are highlighted with potential methodological improvements for future studies on drug safety in pregnancy suggested. The authors explore the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics of the MS disease-modifying drugs for their possible mechanistic role in fetal harm and discuss the potential role of clinical trials. Future pharmacovigilance studies should continue to pursue multicenter collaboration with an emphasis on appropriate study design.

Patterning roadmap: 2017 prospects

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Neisser, Mark

2017-06-01

Road mapping of semiconductor chips has been underway for over 20 years, first with the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (ITRS) roadmap and now with the International Roadmap for Devices and Systems (IRDS) roadmap. The original roadmap was mostly driven bottom up and was developed to ensure that the large numbers of semiconductor producers and suppliers had good information to base their research and development on. The current roadmap is generated more top-down, where the customers of semiconductor chips anticipate what will be needed in the future and the roadmap projects what will be needed to fulfill that demand. The More Moore section of the roadmap projects that advanced logic will drive higher-resolution patterning, rather than memory chips. Potential solutions for patterning future logic nodes can be derived as extensions of `next-generation' patterning technologies currently under development. Advanced patterning has made great progress, and two `next-generation' patterning technologies, EUV and nanoimprint lithography, have potential to be in production as early as 2018. The potential adoption of two different next-generation patterning technologies suggests that patterning technology is becoming more specialized. This is good for the industry in that it lowers overall costs, but may lead to slower progress in extending any one patterning technology in the future.

Recreational 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine or 'ecstasy': Current perspective and future research prospects.

PubMed

Parrott, Andrew C; Downey, Luke A; Roberts, Carl A; Montgomery, Cathy; Bruno, Raimondo; Fox, Helen C

2017-08-01

The purpose of this article is to debate current understandings about the psychobiological effects of recreational 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA or 'ecstasy'), and recommend theoretically-driven topics for future research. Recent empirical findings, especially those from novel topic areas were reviewed. Potential causes for the high variance often found in group findings were also examined. The first empirical reports into psychobiological and psychiatric aspects from the early 1990s concluded that regular users demonstrated some selective psychobiological deficits, for instance worse declarative memory, or heightened depression. More recent research has covered a far wider range of psychobiological functions, and deficits have emerged in aspects of vision, higher cognitive skill, neurohormonal functioning, and foetal developmental outcomes. However, variance levels are often high, indicating that while some recreational users develop problems, others are less affected. Potential reasons for this high variance are debated. An explanatory model based on multi-factorial causation is then proposed. A number of theoretically driven research topics are suggested, in order to empirically investigate the potential causes for these diverse psychobiological deficits. Future neuroimaging studies should study the practical implications of any serotonergic and/or neurohormonal changes, using a wide range of functional measures.

Stress and Asthma: Novel Insights on Genetic, Epigenetic and Immunologic Mechanisms

PubMed Central

Rosenberg, Stacy L.; Miller, Gregory E.; Brehm, John M.; Celedón, Juan C.

2014-01-01

In the United States, the economically disadvantaged and some ethnic minorities are often exposed to chronic psychosocial stressors and disproportionately affected by asthma. Current evidence suggests a causal association between chronic psychosocial stress and asthma or asthma morbidity. Recent findings suggest potential mechanisms underlying this association, including changes in the methylation and expression of genes that regulate behavioral, autonomic, neuroendocrine, and immunologic responses to stress. There is also evidence suggesting the existence of susceptibility genes that predispose chronically stressed youth to both post-traumatic stress disorder and asthma. In this review, we critically examine published evidence and suggest future directions for research in this field. PMID:25129683

Safety and Toxicology of Cannabinoids.

PubMed

Sachs, Jane; McGlade, Erin; Yurgelun-Todd, Deborah

2015-10-01

There is extensive research on the safety, toxicology, potency, and therapeutic potential of cannabis. However, uncertainty remains facilitating continued debate on medical and recreational cannabis policies at the state and federal levels. This review will include a brief description of cannabinoids and the endocannabinoid system; a summary of the acute and long-term effects of cannabis; and a discussion of the therapeutic potential of cannabis. The conclusions about safety and efficacy will then be compared with the current social and political climate to suggest future policy directions and general guidelines.

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change.

PubMed

Maguire, Kaitlin C; Shinneman, Douglas J; Potter, Kevin M; Hipkins, Valerie D

2018-03-14

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

Intraspecific niche models for ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) suggest potential variability in population-level response to climate change

USGS Publications Warehouse

Maguire, Kaitlin C.; Shinneman, Douglas; Potter, Kevin M.; Hipkins, Valerie D.

2018-01-01

Unique responses to climate change can occur across intraspecific levels, resulting in individualistic adaptation or movement patterns among populations within a given species. Thus, the need to model potential responses among genetically distinct populations within a species is increasingly recognized. However, predictive models of future distributions are regularly fit at the species level, often because intraspecific variation is unknown or is identified only within limited sample locations. In this study, we considered the role of intraspecific variation to shape the geographic distribution of ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa), an ecologically and economically important tree species in North America. Morphological and genetic variation across the distribution of ponderosa pine suggest the need to model intraspecific populations: the two varieties (var. ponderosa and var. scopulorum) and several haplotype groups within each variety have been shown to occupy unique climatic niches, suggesting populations have distinct evolutionary lineages adapted to different environmental conditions. We utilized a recently-available, geographically-widespread dataset of intraspecific variation (haplotypes) for ponderosa pine and a recently-devised lineage distance modeling approach to derive additional, likely intraspecific occurrence locations. We confirmed the relative uniqueness of each haplotype-climate relationship using a niche-overlap analysis, and developed ecological niche models (ENMs) to project the distribution for two varieties and eight haplotypes under future climate forecasts. Future projections of haplotype niche distributions generally revealed greater potential range loss than predicted for the varieties. This difference may reflect intraspecific responses of distinct evolutionary lineages. However, directional trends are generally consistent across intraspecific levels, and include a loss of distributional area and an upward shift in elevation. Our results demonstrate the utility in modeling intraspecific response to changing climate and they inform management and conservation strategies, by identifying haplotypes and geographic areas that may be most at risk, or most secure, under projected climate change.

The role of hunger state and dieting history in neural response to food cues: An event-related potential study.

PubMed

Feig, Emily H; Winter, Samantha R; Kounios, John; Erickson, Brian; Berkowitz, Staci A; Lowe, Michael R

2017-10-01

A history of dieting to lose weight has been shown to be a robust predictor of future weight gain. A potential factor in propensity towards weight gain is the nature of people's reactions to the abundance of highly palatable food cues in the environment. Event Related Potentials (ERPs) have revealed differences in how the brain processes food cues between obese and normal weight individuals, as well as between restrained and unrestrained eaters. However, comparisons by weight status are not informative regarding whether differences predate or follow weight gain in obese individuals and restrained eating has not consistently been found to predict future weight gain. The present study compared ERP responses to food cues in non-obese historic dieters (HDs) to non-obese never dieters (NDs). HDs showed a blunted N1 component relative to NDs overall, and delayed N1 and P2 components compared to NDs in the hungry state, suggesting that early, perceptual processing of food cues differs between these groups, especially when food-deprived. HDs also showed a more hunger-dependent sustained ERP (LPP) compared to NDs. Future research should test ERP-based food cue responsivity as a mediator between dieting history and future weight gain to better identify those most at risk for weight gain as well as the nature of their vulnerability. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The future of Arctic benthos: Expansion, invasion, and biodiversity

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Renaud, Paul E.; Sejr, Mikael K.; Bluhm, Bodil A.; Sirenko, Boris; Ellingsen, Ingrid H.

2015-12-01

One of the logical predictions for a future Arctic characterized by warmer waters and reduced sea-ice is that new taxa will expand or invade Arctic seafloor habitats. Specific predictions regarding where this will occur and which taxa are most likely to become established or excluded are lacking, however. We synthesize recent studies and conduct new analyses in the context of climate forecasts and a paleontological perspective to make concrete predictions as to relevant mechanisms, regions, and functional traits contributing to future biodiversity changes. Historically, a warmer Arctic is more readily invaded or transited by boreal taxa than it is during cold periods. Oceanography of an ice-free Arctic Ocean, combined with life-history traits of invading taxa and availability of suitable habitat, determine expansion success. It is difficult to generalize as to which taxonomic groups or locations are likely to experience expansion, however, since species-specific, and perhaps population-specific autecologies, will determine success or failure. Several examples of expansion into the Arctic have been noted, and along with the results from the relatively few Arctic biological time-series suggest inflow shelves (Barents and Chukchi Seas), as well as West Greenland and the western Kara Sea, are most likely locations for expansion. Apparent temperature thresholds were identified for characteristic Arctic and boreal benthic fauna suggesting strong potential for range constrictions of Arctic, and expansions of boreal, fauna in the near future. Increasing human activities in the region could speed introductions of boreal fauna and reduce the value of a planktonic dispersal stage. Finally, shelf regions are likely to experience a greater impact, and also one with greater potential consequences, than the deep Arctic basin. Future research strategies should focus on monitoring as well as compiling basic physiological and life-history information of Arctic and boreal taxa, and integrate that with projections of human activities and likely ecosystem consequences to facilitate development of management strategies now and in the future.

New approaches to addiction treatment based on learning and memory.

PubMed

Kiefer, Falk; Dinter, Christina

2013-01-01

Preclinical studies suggest that physiological learning processes are similar to changes observed in addicts at the molecular, neuronal, and structural levels. Based on the importance of classical and instrumental conditioning in the development and maintenance of addictive disorders, many have suggested cue-exposure-based extinction training of conditioned, drug-related responses as a potential new treatment of addiction. It may also be possible to facilitate this extinction training with pharmacological compounds that strengthen memory consolidation during cue exposure. Another potential therapeutic intervention would be based on the so-called reconsolidation theory. According to this hypothesis, already-consolidated memories return to a labile state when reactivated, allowing them to undergo another phase of consolidation-reconsolidation, which can be pharmacologically manipulated. These approaches suggest that the extinction of drug-related memories may represent a viable treatment strategy in the future treatment of addiction.

Future Changes to ENSO Temperature and Precipitation Teleconnections Under Warming

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, S.; McGregor, S.; Sen Gupta, A.; England, M. H.

2016-12-01

As the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) modulates temperature and rainfall globally, additionally contributing to weather extremes. Anthropogenic climate change has the potential to alter the strength and frequency of ENSO and may also alter ENSO-driven atmospheric teleconnections, affecting ecosystems and human activity in regions far removed from the tropical Pacific. State-of-art climate models exhibit considerable disagreement in projections of future changes in ENSO sea surface temperature variability. Despite this uncertainty, recent model studies suggest that the precipitation response to ENSO will be enhanced in the tropical Pacific under future warming, and as such the societal impacts of ENSO will increase. Here we use temperature and precipitation data from an ensemble of 41 CMIP5 models to show where ENSO teleconnections are being enhanced and dampened in a high-emission future scenario (RCP8.5) focusing on the changes that are occurring over land areas globally. Although there is some spread between the model projections, robust changes with strong ensemble agreement are found in certain locations, including amplification of teleconnections in southeast Australia, South America and the Maritime Continent. Our results suggest that in these regions future ENSO events will lead to more extreme temperature and rainfall responses.

Testing three pathways to substance use and delinquency among low-income African American adolescents☆

PubMed Central

Marotta, Phillip L.; Voisin, Dexter R.

2017-01-01

Objective Mounting literature suggests that parental monitoring, risky peer norms, and future orientation correlate with illicit drug use and delinquency. However, few studies have investigated these constructs simultaneously in a single statistical model with low income African American youth. This study examined parental monitoring, peer norms and future orientation as primary pathways to drug use and delinquent behaviors in a large sample of African American urban adolescents. Methods A path model tested direct paths from peer norms, parental monitoring, and future orientation to drug use and delinquency outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, socioeconomic, and sexual orientation in a sample of 541 African American youth. Results Greater scores on measures of risky peer norms were associated with heightened risk of delinquency with an effect size that was twice in magnitude compared to the protective effects of future orientation. Regarding substance use, greater perceived risky peer norms correlated with the increased likelihood of substance use with a standardized effect size 3.33 times in magnitude compared to the protective effects of parental monitoring. Conclusions Findings from this study suggest that interventions targeting risky peer norms among adolescent African American youth may correlate with a greater impact on reductions in substance use and delinquency than exclusively targeting parental monitoring or future orientation. PMID:28974824

Testing three pathways to substance use and delinquency among low-income African American adolescents.

PubMed

Marotta, Phillip L; Voisin, Dexter R

2017-04-01

Mounting literature suggests that parental monitoring, risky peer norms, and future orientation correlate with illicit drug use and delinquency. However, few studies have investigated these constructs simultaneously in a single statistical model with low income African American youth. This study examined parental monitoring, peer norms and future orientation as primary pathways to drug use and delinquent behaviors in a large sample of African American urban adolescents. A path model tested direct paths from peer norms, parental monitoring, and future orientation to drug use and delinquency outcomes after adjusting for potential confounders such as age, socioeconomic, and sexual orientation in a sample of 541 African American youth. Greater scores on measures of risky peer norms were associated with heightened risk of delinquency with an effect size that was twice in magnitude compared to the protective effects of future orientation. Regarding substance use, greater perceived risky peer norms correlated with the increased likelihood of substance use with a standardized effect size 3.33 times in magnitude compared to the protective effects of parental monitoring. Findings from this study suggest that interventions targeting risky peer norms among adolescent African American youth may correlate with a greater impact on reductions in substance use and delinquency than exclusively targeting parental monitoring or future orientation.

Aerobic vs. anaerobic scope: sibling species of fish indicate that temperature dependence of hypoxia tolerance can predict future survival.

PubMed

Sørensen, Christina; Munday, Philip L; Nilsson, Göran E

2014-03-01

The temperature dependence of aerobic scope has been suggested to be a major determinant of how marine animals will cope with future rises in environmental temperature. Here, we present data suggesting that in some animals, the temperature dependence of anaerobic scope (i.e., the capacity for surviving severe hypoxia) may determine present-day latitudinal distributions and potential for persistence in a warmer future. As a model for investigating the role of anaerobic scope, we studied two sibling species of coral-dwelling gobies, Gobiodon histrio, and G. erythrospilus, with different latitudinal distributions, but which overlap in equal abundance at Lizard Island (14°40'S) on the Great Barrier Reef. These species did not differ in the temperature dependence of resting oxygen consumption or critical oxygen concentration (the lowest oxygen level where resting oxygen consumption can be maintained). In contrast, the more equatorial species (G. histrio) had a better capacity to endure anaerobic conditions at oxygen levels below the critical oxygen concentration at the high temperatures (32-33 °C) more likely to occur near the equator, or in a warmer future. These results suggest that anaerobic scope, in addition to aerobic scope, could be important in determining the impacts of global warming on some marine animals. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A first-order analysis of the potential role of CO2 fertilization to affect the global carbon budget: A comparison of four terrestrial biosphere models

USGS Publications Warehouse

Kicklighter, D.W.; Bruno, M.; Donges, S.; Esser, G.; Heimann, Martin; Helfrich, J.; Ift, F.; Joos, F.; Kaduk, J.; Kohlmaier, G.H.; McGuire, A.D.; Melillo, J.M.; Meyer, R.; Moore, B.; Nadler, A.; Prentice, I.C.; Sauf, W.; Schloss, A.L.; Sitch, S.; Wittenberg, U.; Wurth, G.

1999-01-01

We compared the simulated responses of net primary production, heterotrophic respiration, net ecosystem production and carbon storage in natural terrestrial ecosystems to historical (1765 to 1990) and projected (1990 to 2300) changes of atmospheric CO2 concentration of four terrestrial biosphere models: the Bern model, the Frankfurt Biosphere Model (FBM), the High-Resolution Biosphere Model (HRBM) and the Terrestrial Ecosystem Model (TEM). The results of the model intercomparison suggest that CO2 fertilization of natural terrestrial vegetation has the potential to account for a large fraction of the so-called 'missing carbon sink' of 2.0 Pg C in 1990. Estimates of this potential are reduced when the models incorporate the concept that CO2 fertilization can be limited by nutrient availability. Although the model estimates differ on the potential size (126 to 461 Pg C) of the future terrestrial sink caused by CO2 fertilization, the results of the four models suggest that natural terrestrial ecosystems will have a limited capacity to act as a sink of atmospheric CO2 in the future as a result of physiological constraints and nutrient constraints on NPP. All the spatially explicit models estimate a carbon sink in both tropical and northern temperate regions, but the strength of these sinks varies over time. Differences in the simulated response of terrestrial ecosystems to CO2 fertilization among the models in this intercomparison study reflect the fact that the models have highlighted different aspects of the effect of CO2 fertilization on carbon dynamics of natural terrestrial ecosystems including feedback mechanisms. As interactions with nitrogen fertilization, climate change and forest regrowth may play an important role in simulating the response of terrestrial ecosystems to CO2 fertilization, these factors should be included in future analyses. Improvements in spatially explicit data sets, whole-ecosystems experiments and the availability of net carbon exchange measurements across the globe will also help to improve future evaluations of the role of CO2 fertilization on terrestrial carbon storage.

Future Mission Trends and their Implications for the Deep Space Network

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Abraham, Douglas S.

2006-01-01

Planning for the upgrade and/or replacement of Deep Space Network (DSN) assets that typically operate for forty or more years necessitates understanding potential customer needs as far into the future as possible. This paper describes the methodology Deep Space Network (DSN) planners use to develop this understanding, some key future mission trends that have emerged from application of this methodology, and the implications of the trends for the DSN's future evolution. For NASA's current plans out to 2030, these trends suggest the need to accommodate: three times as many communication links, downlink rates two orders of magnitude greater than today's, uplink rates some four orders of magnitude greater, and end-to-end link difficulties two-to-three orders of magnitude greater. To meet these challenges, both DSN capacity and capability will need to increase.

Processing for spaceborne synthetic aperture radar imagery

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lybanon, M.

1973-01-01

The data handling and processing in using synthetic aperture radar as a satellite-borne earth resources remote sensor is considered. The discussion covers the nature of the problem, the theory, both conventional and potential advanced processing techniques, and a complete computer simulation. It is shown that digital processing is a real possibility and suggests some future directions for research.

Bioconjugated gold nanoparticles accelerate the growth of new blood vessels through redox signaling.

PubMed

Nethi, Susheel Kumar; Mukherjee, Sudip; Veeriah, Vimal; Barui, Ayan Kumar; Chatterjee, Suvro; Patra, Chitta Ranjan

2014-11-28

We have designed and developed novel pro-angiogenic bio-synthesized gold nanoconjugates (b-Au-HP) that make new blood vessels, as observed by several in vitro and in vivo assays, suggesting their future potential applications in alternative treatment strategies for wound healing, cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and ischemic diseases using a nanomedicine approach.

Strength-based Supervision: Frameworks, Current Practice, and Future Directions A Wu-wei Method.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Edwards, Jeffrey K.; Chen, Mei-Whei

1999-01-01

Discusses a method of counseling supervision similar to the wu-wei practice in Zen and Taoism. Suggests that this strength-based method and an understanding of isomorphy in supervisory relationships are the preferred practice for the supervision of family counselors. States that this model of supervision potentiates the person-of-the-counselor.…

Private forest investment and long-run sustainable harvest volumes.

Treesearch

Ralph J. Alig; Darius M. Adams; John T. Chmelik; Pete Bettinger

1999-01-01

Private timberlands in the United States have the biological potential to provide larger quantities of timber on a sustainable basis than they do today. Most opportunities for increasing growth and harvest lie on nonindustrial private lands in the South. Past studies, based on fixed scenarios of future prices, also suggest that many of these opportunities for...

W.E.B. Du Bois and the Women of Hull-House, 1895-1899.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Deegan, Mary Jo

1988-01-01

Uses correspondence generated by the writing of "The Philadelphia Negro" to describe the collaborative relationship between W.E.B. DuBois and women sociologists. Suggests that this historical bond between Black men and White women in their search for a more egalitarian future has the potential to inform efforts toward greater equity now…

Framing International Development Education in the Post-2015 Era: Suggestions for Scholars and Policymakers

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Weidman, John C.

2016-01-01

The purpose of this article is to build a series of frameworks for understanding social and educational changes that have the potential to inform the preparation of future international development education scholars and practitioners. It begins with a description of the main trends driving contemporary development education. This is followed by a…

Global climate change impacts on forests and markets

Treesearch

Xiaohui Tian; Brent Sohngen; John B Kim; Sara Ohrel; Jefferson Cole

2016-01-01

This paper develops an economic analysis of climate change impacts in the global forest sector. It illustrates how potential future climate change impacts can be integrated into a dynamic forestry economics model using data from a global dynamic vegetation model, theMC2model. The results suggest that climate change will cause forest outputs (such as timber) to increase...

Chapter 14: The impacts of climate change on forestry

Treesearch

Linda A. Joyce

2007-01-01

The quantitative analysis of the impact of future climate change on forests and forestry began in the 1980s, motivated by research in the atmospheric sciences and concerns about the potential impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems. These analyses suggested that forest ecosystems would be seriously impacted by climate change, with consequent impacts on the...

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a Western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-05-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrients loads in the historically snow melt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, Western United States. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that in the Sprague River (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high flow season under warmer-wetter climate projections, or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

In touch with robotics: neurosurgery for the future.

PubMed

Nathoo, Narendra; Cavuşoğlu, M Cenk; Vogelbaum, Michael A; Barnett, Gene H

2005-03-01

The introduction of multiple front-end technologies during the past quarter century has generated an emerging futurism for the discipline of neurological surgery. Driven primarily by synergistic developments in science and engineering, neurosurgery has always managed to harness the potential of the latest technical developments. Robotics represents one such technology. Progress in development of this technology has resulted in new uses for robotic devices in our discipline, which are accompanied by new potential dangers and inherent risks. The recent surge in robot-assisted interventions in other disciplines suggests that this technology may be considered one of a spectrum of frontier technologies poised to fuel the development of neurosurgery and consolidate the era of minimalism. On a more practical level, if the introduction of robotics in neurosurgery proves beneficial, neurosurgeons will need to become facile with this technology and learn to harness its potential so that the best surgical results may be achieved in the least invasive manner. This article reviews the role of robotic technology in the context of neurosurgery.

Steps toward a globally available malaria vaccine: harnessing the potential of algae for future low cost vaccines.

PubMed

Jones, Carla S; Mayfield, Stephen P

2013-01-01

Malaria is an infectious disease that threatens half of the world's population. This debilitating disease is caused by infection from parasites of the genus Plasmodium. Insecticides, bed nets and drug therapies have lowered the prevalence and death rate associated with malaria but this disease continues to plague many populations around the world. In recent years, many organizations have suggested developing methods for a complete eradication of malaria. The most straightforward and effective method for this potential eradication will be through the development of a low-cost vaccine. To achieve eradication, it will be necessary to develop new vaccine candidates and novel systems for both the production and delivery of these vaccines. Recently, the green algae Chlamydomonas reinhardtii has been used for the recombinant expression of malaria vaccine candidates including the transmission blocking vaccine candidate Pfs48/45. Here, we discuss the potential of this research on the future development of a low-cost malaria vaccine candidate.

Potential problems of detecting and treating psychosis in the White House. Potential psychosis in the White House.

PubMed

Gambill, J

1980-01-01

Numerous books and articles have described the emotional difficulties suffered by President Nixon and how they influenced functioning in the White House and other branches of government during his presidency. I am not able to ascertain whether Nixon was temporarily psychotic; but the reported emotional turmoil suggests he may have been at high risk for committing suicide or developing a psychosis. This article analyzes the reactions of numerous people to the questionably irrational behaviour of Richard Nixon. Examples of psychiatric risks in other Presidents, presidential candidates, and public figures are also discussed. The potential difficulties in detecting and treating severe psychiatric illness in Presidents and other public figures should not prevent us from taking action now to minimize future risks. It is recommended that future Presidents appoint a psychiatrist, at least on a part-time basis, as one of their personal physicians in order to increase Presidential access to psychiatric evaluation and treatment.

ART/Ada design project, phase 1

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1989-01-01

An Ada-Based Expert System Building Tool Design Research Project was conducted. The goal was to investigate various issues in the context of the design of an Ada-based expert system building tool. An attempt was made to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the potential for embedding expert systems in Ada systems for eventual application in future projects. The current status of the project is described by introducing an operational prototype, ART/Ada. How the project was conducted is explained. The performance of the prototype is analyzed and compared with other related works. Future research directions are suggested.

Empirical estimates to reduce modeling uncertainties of soil organic carbon in permafrost regions: a review of recent progress and remaining challenges

USGS Publications Warehouse

Mishra, U.; Jastrow, J.D.; Matamala, R.; Hugelius, G.; Koven, C.D.; Harden, Jennifer W.; Ping, S.L.; Michaelson, G.J.; Fan, Z.; Miller, R.M.; McGuire, A.D.; Tarnocai, C.; Kuhry, P.; Riley, W.J.; Schaefer, K.; Schuur, E.A.G.; Jorgenson, M.T.; Hinzman, L.D.

2013-01-01

The vast amount of organic carbon (OC) stored in soils of the northern circumpolar permafrost region is a potentially vulnerable component of the global carbon cycle. However, estimates of the quantity, decomposability, and combustibility of OC contained in permafrost-region soils remain highly uncertain, thereby limiting our ability to predict the release of greenhouse gases due to permafrost thawing. Substantial differences exist between empirical and modeling estimates of the quantity and distribution of permafrost-region soil OC, which contribute to large uncertainties in predictions of carbon–climate feedbacks under future warming. Here, we identify research challenges that constrain current assessments of the distribution and potential decomposability of soil OC stocks in the northern permafrost region and suggest priorities for future empirical and modeling studies to address these challenges.

A road for a promising future for China's primates: The potential for restoration.

PubMed

Chapman, Colin A

2018-07-18

China is one of the most dynamic countries of the world and it shelters some amazing levels of biodiversity, including some very special primate species. However, primarily as a result of forest loss, most of which occurred in historical times, approximately 70% of China's primate species have less than 3 000 individuals. Here I evaluate one road for future conservation/development that could produce very positive gains for China's primates; namely forest restoration. I argue that for a large scale restoration project to be possible two conditions must be met; the right societal conditions must exist and the right knowledge must be in hand. This evaluation suggests that the restoration of native forest to support many of China's primates holds great potential to advance conservation goals and to promote primate population recovery.

Imaging Mitochondrial Redox Potential and Its Possible Link to Tumor Metastatic Potential

PubMed Central

Li, Lin Z.

2012-01-01

Cellular redox states can regulate cell metabolism, growth, differentiation, motility, apoptosis, signaling pathways, and gene expressions etc. Growing body of literature suggest importance of redox status for cancer progression. While most studies on redox state were done on cells and tissue lysates, it is important to understand the role of redox state in tissue in vivo/ex vivo and image its heterogeneity. Redox scanning is a clinically-translatable method for imaging tissue mitochondrial redox potential with a submillimeter resolution. Redox scanning data in mouse models of human cancers demonstrate a correlation between mitochondrial redox state and tumor metastatic potential. I will discuss the significance of this correlation and possible directions for future research. PMID:22895837

What about Place? Considering the Role of Physical Environment on Youth Imagining of Future Possible Selves.

PubMed

Prince, Dana

2014-07-01

Identity research indicates that development of well elaborated cognitions about oneself in the future, or one's possible selves, is consequential for youths' developmental trajectories, influencing a range of social, health, and educational outcomes. Although the theory of possible selves considers the role of social contexts in identity development, the potential influence of the physical environment is understudied. At the same time, a growing body of work spanning multiple disciplines points to the salience of place , or the meaningful physical environments of people's everyday lives, as an active contributor to self-identity. Bridging these two lines of inquiry, I provide evidence to show how place-based experiences, such as belonging, aversion, and entrapment, may be internalized and encoded into possible selves, thus producing emplaced future self-concept. I suggest that for young people, visioning self in the future is inextricably bound with place; place is an active contributor both in the present development of future self-concept and in enabling young people to envision different future possible places. Implications for practice and future research include place-making interventions and conceptualizing place beyond "neighborhood effects."

Future orientation and health quality of life in primary care: vitality as a mediator.

PubMed

Hirsch, Jameson K; Molnar, Danielle; Chang, Edward C; Sirois, Fuschia M

2015-07-01

Temporal perspective, including views about future goals, may influence motivational processes related to health. An adaptive sense of future orientation is linked to better health, but little research has examined potential underlying factors, such as vitality. In a sample of 101 primary care patients, we examined whether belief in the changeability of the future was related to mental and physical energization and, in turn, to health-related quality of life. Participants were working, uninsured primary care patients, who completed self-report measures of future orientation, vitality, and health-related quality of life. Mediation models, covarying age, sex, and race/ethnicity indicated that vitality significantly mediated the association between future orientation and the outcomes of general health, mental health, social functioning, bodily pain, and role limitations due to emotional and physical reasons. Vitality exerted an indirect-only effect on the relation between future orientation and physical functioning. Our findings suggest that adaptive beliefs about the future may promote, or allow access to, physical and mental energy and, in turn, may result in better mental and physical health functioning. Individual-level and public health interventions designed to promote future orientation and vitality may beneficially influence quality of life and well-being.

A biome-scale assessment of the impact of invasive alien plants on ecosystem services in South Africa.

PubMed

van Wilgen, B W; Reyers, B; Le Maitre, D C; Richardson, D M; Schonegevel, L

2008-12-01

This paper reports an assessment of the current and potential impacts of invasive alien plants on selected ecosystem services in South Africa. We used data on the current and potential future distribution of 56 invasive alien plant species to estimate their impact on four services (surface water runoff, groundwater recharge, livestock production and biodiversity) in five terrestrial biomes. The estimated reductions in surface water runoff as a result of current invasions were >3000 million m(3) (about 7% of the national total), most of which is from the fynbos (shrubland) and grassland biomes; the potential reductions would be more than eight times greater if invasive alien plants were to occupy the full extent of their potential range. Impacts on groundwater recharge would be less severe, potentially amounting to approximately 1.5% of the estimated maximum reductions in surface water runoff. Reductions in grazing capacity as a result of current levels of invasion amounted to just over 1% of the potential number of livestock that could be supported. However, future impacts could increase to 71%. A 'biodiversity intactness index' (the remaining proportion of pre-modern populations) ranged from 89% to 71% for the five biomes. With the exception of the fynbos biome, current invasions have almost no impact on biodiversity intactness. Under future levels of invasion, however, these intactness values decrease to around 30% for the savanna, fynbos and grassland biomes, but to even lower values (13% and 4%) for the two karoo biomes. Thus, while the current impacts of invasive alien plants are relatively low (with the exception of those on surface water runoff), the future impacts could be very high. While the errors in these estimates are likely to be substantial, the predicted impacts are sufficiently large to suggest that there is serious cause for concern.

A horizon scanning assessment of current and potential future threats to migratory shorebirds

USGS Publications Warehouse

Sutherland, William J.; Alves, José A.; Amano, Tatsuya; Chang, Charlotte H.; Davidson, Nicholas C.; Finlayson, C. Max; Gill, Jennifer A.; Gill, Robert E.; González, Patricia M.; Gunnarsson, Tómas Grétar; Kleijn, David; Spray, Chris J.; Székely, Tamás; Thompson, Des B.A.

2012-01-01

We review the conservation issues facing migratory shorebird populations that breed in temperate regions and use wetlands in the non-breeding season. Shorebirds are excellent model organisms for understanding ecological, behavioural and evolutionary processes and are often used as indicators of wetland health. A global team of experienced shorebird researchers identified 45 issues facing these shorebird populations, and divided them into three categories (natural, current anthropogenic and future issues). The natural issues included megatsunamis, volcanoes and regional climate changes, while current anthropogenic threats encompassed agricultural intensification, conversion of tidal flats and coastal wetlands by human infrastructure developments and eutrophication of coastal systems. Possible future threats to shorebirds include microplastics, new means of recreation and infectious diseases. We suggest that this review process be broadened to other taxa to aid the identification and ranking of current and future conservation actions.

Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change.

PubMed

Imbach, Pablo; Fung, Emily; Hannah, Lee; Navarro-Racines, Carlos E; Roubik, David W; Ricketts, Taylor H; Harvey, Celia A; Donatti, Camila I; Läderach, Peter; Locatelli, Bruno; Roehrdanz, Patrick R

2017-09-26

Climate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops. Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination. We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. Our results suggest that coffee-suitable areas will be reduced 73-88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46-76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8-18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46-59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10-22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34-51% of other areas. Finally, in 31-33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases. Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions.

Time Perspectives and Gambling in Adolescent Boys: Differential Effects of Present- and Future-Orientation.

PubMed

Donati, Maria Anna; Sottili, Elena; Morsanyi, Kinga; Primi, Caterina

2018-06-04

Adolescent boys are characterised by increased risk-taking behavior, including a relatively high propensity to develop problem gambling habits. The association between gambling and sensitivity to immediately available rewards is well-established, suggesting that gamblers are less influenced by potential future consequences than non-gamblers. Nevertheless, existing studies have considered present- and future-orientation as two ends of the same continuum, and have not investigated the possibility that present and future perspectives might make independent contributions to gambling behavior. In the current study, we adopted Zimbardo's multidimensional approach, which discriminates between not only present and future perspectives, but also between a hedonistic and fatalistic present-orientation (in addition to positive and negative orientations towards the past). The participants were 223 male adolescents (mean age = 16.7 years). We investigated the effects of time perspectives on gambling frequency and gambling problem severity, after taking into account the effects of age, sensation seeking, and gambling-related cognitive distortions. Gambling frequency was significantly predicted by the present fatalistic perspective, and problem gambling was significantly (negatively) related to the future perspective. The present hedonistic and past negative perspectives were also significantly related to both gambling frequency and gambling problems, although they did not explain additional variance in gambling behavior when the effects of the other factors were controlled. Overall, these results offer a fresh perspective on the role of time perspectives in gambling behavior, with potential implications for understanding the origins of gambling problems and the development of novel interventions.

Nuclear energy and security

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

BLEJWAS,THOMAS E.; SANDERS,THOMAS L.; EAGAN,ROBERT J.

2000-01-01

Nuclear power is an important and, the authors believe, essential component of a secure nuclear future. Although nuclear fuel cycles create materials that have some potential for use in nuclear weapons, with appropriate fuel cycles, nuclear power could reduce rather than increase real proliferation risk worldwide. Future fuel cycles could be designed to avoid plutonium production, generate minimal amounts of plutonium in proliferation-resistant amounts or configurations, and/or transparently and efficiently consume plutonium already created. Furthermore, a strong and viable US nuclear infrastructure, of which nuclear power is a large element, is essential if the US is to maintain a leadershipmore » or even participatory role in defining the global nuclear infrastructure and controlling the proliferation of nuclear weapons. By focusing on new fuel cycles and new reactor technologies, it is possible to advantageously burn and reduce nuclear materials that could be used for nuclear weapons rather than increase and/or dispose of these materials. Thus, the authors suggest that planners for a secure nuclear future use technology to design an ideal future. In this future, nuclear power creates large amounts of virtually atmospherically clean energy while significantly lowering the threat of proliferation through the thoughtful use, physical security, and agreed-upon transparency of nuclear materials. The authors must develop options for policy makers that bring them as close as practical to this ideal. Just as Atoms for Peace became the ideal for the first nuclear century, they see a potential nuclear future that contributes significantly to power for peace and prosperity.« less

Estimating direct fatality impacts at wind farms: how far we’ve come, where we have yet to go

USGS Publications Warehouse

Huso, Manuela M.; Schwartz, Susan Savitt

2013-01-01

Measuring the potential impacts of wind farms on wildlife can be difficult and may require development of new statistical tools and models to accurately reflect the measurement process. This presentation reviews the recent history of approaches to estimating wildlife fatality under the unique conditions encountered at wind farms, their unifying themes and their potential shortcomings. Avenues of future research are suggested to continue to address the needs of resource managers and industry in understanding direct impacts of wind turbine-caused wildlife fatality.

A social-ecological analysis of the self-determination literature.

PubMed

Shogren, Karrie A

2013-12-01

This paper uses a social-ecological lens to examine self-determination research, attempting to organize what is known (and unknown) about contextual factors that have the potential to impact the development and expression of self-determined behavior in people with disabilities across multiple ecological systems. Identifying and categorizing the contextual factors that researchers suggest influence self-determination have the potential to allow for the development of a framework that promotes systematic consideration of contextual factors when designing, implementing, and evaluating supports to promote self-determination. Directions for future research and practice are discussed.

Modeling the impact of climate change in Germany with biosphere models for long-term safety assessment of nuclear waste repositories.

PubMed

Staudt, C; Semiochkina, N; Kaiser, J C; Pröhl, G

2013-01-01

Biosphere models are used to evaluate the exposure of populations to radionuclides from a deep geological repository. Since the time frame for assessments of long-time disposal safety is 1 million years, potential future climate changes need to be accounted for. Potential future climate conditions were defined for northern Germany according to model results from the BIOCLIM project. Nine present day reference climate regions were defined to cover those future climate conditions. A biosphere model was developed according to the BIOMASS methodology of the IAEA and model parameters were adjusted to the conditions at the reference climate regions. The model includes exposure pathways common to those reference climate regions in a stylized biosphere and relevant to the exposure of a hypothetical self-sustaining population at the site of potential radionuclide contamination from a deep geological repository. The end points of the model are Biosphere Dose Conversion factors (BDCF) for a range of radionuclides and scenarios normalized for a constant radionuclide concentration in near-surface groundwater. Model results suggest an increased exposure of in dry climate regions with a high impact of drinking water consumption rates and the amount of irrigation water used for agriculture. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Status of Emerging Technologies: An Economic/Technological Assessment to the Year 2000. Final Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Department of Commerce, Washington, DC.

The U.S. Department of Commerce reviewed emerging technologies and their future impact on the economy. This report lists the emerging technologies and suggests their potential contribution to the gross national product by the year 2000. It is based on an assessment by technical experts and agency heads within the Department of Commerce, who…

Developing a Service Management Strategy Facilitated by Action Learning: An Empirical Study from the UK Health & Fitness Industry

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Oliver, John

2006-01-01

One of the principle tenets of action learning is that it provides the potential to explore and solve complex organisational problems. The question of how best to develop a future business strategy is such a problem. Existing literature on strategy making presents a multi-faceted debate, suggesting that the complexity of competitive environments…

The head injured adolescent: a case report and review of the issues.

PubMed

Reiter, S; Kutcher, S P

1990-11-01

Closed head injuries in adolescents are a common problem with potentially disastrous consequences to multiple areas of functioning. Through a case presentation and literature review, this paper considers treatment issues and research applications in an adolescent population with closed head injuries. Suggestions for understanding the symptom constellations are made and directions for future research and service delivery are given.

Interest in Teaching Careers Rising; Technology and Nursing Careers Falling Sharply. 1987 Freshman Survey Report.

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Higher Education Research Inst., Inc., Los Angeles, CA.

According to the 22nd annual survey of entering freshmen in the United States, freshman interest in teaching careers has increased by more than two-thirds since 1982. However, this level of interest still falls short of the projected demand. The 1987 data also suggest potential problems with future supplies of certain technology and health care…

Role of Platelet-Derived Microvesicles As Crosstalk Mediators in Atherothrombosis and Future Pharmacology Targets: A Link between Inflammation, Atherosclerosis, and Thrombosis

PubMed Central

Badimon, Lina; Suades, Rosa; Fuentes, Eduardo; Palomo, Iván; Padró, Teresa

2016-01-01

Reports in the last decade have suggested that the role of platelets in atherosclerosis and its thrombotic complications may be mediated, in part, by local secretion of platelet-derived microvesicles (pMVs), small cell blebs released during the platelet activation process. MVs are the most abundant cell-derived microvesicle subtype in the circulation. High concentrations of circulating MVs have been reported in patients with atherosclerosis, acute vascular syndromes, and/or diabetes mellitus, suggesting a potential correlation between the quantity of microvesicles and the clinical severity of the atherosclerotic disease. pMVs are considered to be biomarkers of disease but new information indicates that pMVs are also involved in signaling functions. pMVs evoke or promote haemostatic and inflammatory responses, neovascularization, cell survival, and apoptosis, processes involved in the pathophysiology of cardiovascular disease. This review is focused on the complex cross-talk between platelet-derived microvesicles, inflammatory cells and vascular elements and their relevance in the development of the atherosclerotic disease and its clinical outcomes, providing an updated state-of-the art of pMV involvement in atherothrombosis and pMV potential use as therapeutic agent influencing cardiovascular biomedicine in the future. PMID:27630570

Eating disorders: Insights from imaging and behavioral approaches to treatment.

PubMed

Stice, Eric; Shaw, Heather

2017-11-01

Understanding factors that contribute to eating disorders, which affect 13% of females, is critical to developing effective prevention and treatment programs. In this paper, we summarize results from prospective studies that identified factors predicting onset and persistence of eating disorders and core symptom dimensions. Next, implications for intervention targets for prevention, and treatment interventions from the risk- and maintenance-factor findings are discussed. Third, given that evidence suggests eating disorders are highly heritable, implying biological risk and maintenance factors for eating disorders, we offer working hypotheses about biological factors that might contribute to eating disorders, based on extant risk factor findings, theory, and cross-sectional studies. Finally, potentially fruitful directions for future research are presented. We suggest that it would be useful for experimental therapeutics trials to evaluate the effects of reducing the risk factors on future onset of eating pathology and on reducing maintenance factors on the risk for persistence of eating pathology, and encourage researchers to utilize prospective high-risk studies so that knowledge regarding potential intervention targets for prevention and treatment interventions for eating disorders can be advanced. Using the most rigorous research designs should help improve the efficacy of prevention and treatment interventions for eating disorders.

Is ambiguity tolerance malleable? Experimental evidence with potential implications for future research

PubMed Central

Endres, Megan L.; Camp, Richaurd; Milner, Morgan

2015-01-01

We conducted two research studies to address the malleability of tolerance of ambiguity (TA) by manipulating situational ambiguity. Students participated in a semester-end assessment of their management skills (n = 306). In Study 1, students in low and moderate ambiguity conditions had significantly higher post-experiment TA, more positive change in self-efficacy, and marginally higher faculty ratings. In Study 2, a control group (n = 103) did not participate in the assessment and was established for comparison to the first study results. The Study 2 students reported TA significantly lower than Study 1 students in the low and moderate ambiguity conditions. The control group TA was not significantly different from that of the Study 1 high ambiguity condition. This further suggested TA’s situational malleability, as those who had controlled access to structured information appeared to have increased their TA over that observed in the other two groups. These results suggest that TA may be malleable. We review the relevant literature, offer hypotheses, report our analyses and findings, and then propose future research, and potential prescriptive applications in such areas as management development, assessment, and decision-making. PMID:26042059

Join the club: a modest proposal to increase availability of donor organs.

PubMed

Jarvis, R

1995-08-01

The shortage of suitable donor organs is the most significant single limiting factor in transplant programmes. More lives could be saved or immeasurably improved if more organs were available. I look at two traditional solutions to the shortfall, and suggest that they are ineffective and/or offensive, and consider the features common to any answer to the problem. I then suggest a third solution: that admission to future transplant lists be conditional on registration as a potential organ donor, outlining its benefits, and defending it against one possible objection.

Healthy and happy in Europe? On the association between happiness and life expectancy over time.

PubMed

Bjørnskov, Christian

2008-04-01

This paper revisits the standard finding in individual-level studies that happiness leads to longevity. It does so in a cross-country time-series analysis in which the use of a random effects estimator controls for most relevant time-invariant factors. The findings suggest that happiness is negatively associated with longevity at the national level, and suggests a potential indirect transmission channel, as national happiness is negatively associated with public health expenditures. The paper concludes by discussing the implications of the results for public policy and future research.

RandomForest4Life: a Random Forest for predicting ALS disease progression.

PubMed

Hothorn, Torsten; Jung, Hans H

2014-09-01

We describe a method for predicting disease progression in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) patients. The method was developed as a submission to the DREAM Phil Bowen ALS Prediction Prize4Life Challenge of summer 2012. Based on repeated patient examinations over a three- month period, we used a random forest algorithm to predict future disease progression. The procedure was set up and internally evaluated using data from 1197 ALS patients. External validation by an expert jury was based on undisclosed information of an additional 625 patients; all patient data were obtained from the PRO-ACT database. In terms of prediction accuracy, the approach described here ranked third best. Our interpretation of the prediction model confirmed previous reports suggesting that past disease progression is a strong predictor of future disease progression measured on the ALS functional rating scale (ALSFRS). We also found that larger variability in initial ALSFRS scores is linked to faster future disease progression. The results reported here furthermore suggested that approaches taking the multidimensionality of the ALSFRS into account promise some potential for improved ALS disease prediction.

The impact of future climate on historic interiors.

PubMed

Lankester, Paul; Brimblecombe, Peter

2012-02-15

The socio-economic significance of climate change is widely recognised. However, its potential to affect our cultural heritage has not been discussed in detail (i.e. not explicit in IPCC 4) even though the cultural impacts of future outdoor climate have been the focus of some European Commission projects (e.g. NOAH'S ARK) and World Heritage Centre reports. Recently there have been a few projects that have examined the changing environmental threats to tangible heritage indoors (e.g. Preparing Historic Collections for Climate Change and Climate for Culture). Here we predict future indoor temperature and humidity, and damage arising from changes to climate in historic rooms in Southern England with little climate control, using simple building simulations coupled with high resolution (~5 km) climate predictions. The calculations suggest an increase in indoor temperature over the next century that is slightly less than that outdoors. Annual relative humidity shows little change, but the seasonal cycles suggest drier summers and slightly damper winters indoors. Damage from mould growth and pests is likely to increase in the future, while humidity driven dimensional change to materials (e.g. wood) should decrease somewhat. The results allow collection managers to prepare for the impact of long-term climate change, putting strategic measures in place to prevent increased damage, and thus preserve our heritage for future generations. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Recruitment of oncology nurses for Internet research: issues and future directions.

PubMed

Im, Eun-Ok; Chee, Wonshik; Lim, Hyun Ju; Bender, Melinda; Tsai, Hsiu-Min; Yang, Soon-Ok; Lee, Hungsa

2006-11-03

To provide future directions for Internet research based on issues raised during the recruitment process of an Internet survey of oncology nurses. Throughout the research process, the research staff recorded issues as they arose and wrote memos regarding recruitment issues and possible reasons for the issues. Weekly group discussions were conducted, and written records of the discussions were kept. The written memos and records were reviewed, and the content was analyzed. The recruitment issues included flexibility required, mutual trust, changing Internet dynamics, and potential selection bias. As the issues indicated, recruiting nurses for the study only through the Internet did not work well. For future Internet research, the authors suggest using multiple Internet and real settings for recruitment, a variety of strategies, the quota sampling method, and creative motivation strategies.

Impacts and responses to sea-level rise: a global analysis of the SRES scenarios over the twenty-first century.

PubMed

Nicholls, Robert J; Tol, Richard S J

2006-04-15

Taking the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) climate and socio-economic scenarios (A1FI, A2, B1 and B2 'future worlds'), the potential impacts of sea-level rise through the twenty-first century are explored using complementary impact and economic analysis methods at the global scale. These methods have never been explored together previously. In all scenarios, the exposure and hence the impact potential due to increased flooding by sea-level rise increases significantly compared to the base year (1990). While mitigation reduces impacts, due to the lagged response of sea-level rise to atmospheric temperature rise, impacts cannot be avoided during the twenty-first century by this response alone. Cost-benefit analyses suggest that widespread protection will be an economically rational response to land loss due to sea-level rise in the four SRES futures that are considered. The most vulnerable future worlds to sea-level rise appear to be the A2 and B2 scenarios, which primarily reflects differences in the socio-economic situation (coastal population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and GDP/capita), rather than the magnitude of sea-level rise. Small islands and deltaic settings stand out as being more vulnerable as shown in many earlier analyses. Collectively, these results suggest that human societies will have more choice in how they respond to sea-level rise than is often assumed. However, this conclusion needs to be tempered by recognition that we still do not understand these choices and significant impacts remain possible. Future worlds which experience larger rises in sea-level than considered here (above 35 cm), more extreme events, a reactive rather than proactive approach to adaptation, and where GDP growth is slower or more unequal than in the SRES futures remain a concern. There is considerable scope for further research to better understand these diverse issues.

Cluster Analysis in Nursing Research: An Introduction, Historical Perspective, and Future Directions.

PubMed

Dunn, Heather; Quinn, Laurie; Corbridge, Susan J; Eldeirawi, Kamal; Kapella, Mary; Collins, Eileen G

2017-05-01

The use of cluster analysis in the nursing literature is limited to the creation of classifications of homogeneous groups and the discovery of new relationships. As such, it is important to provide clarity regarding its use and potential. The purpose of this article is to provide an introduction to distance-based, partitioning-based, and model-based cluster analysis methods commonly utilized in the nursing literature, provide a brief historical overview on the use of cluster analysis in nursing literature, and provide suggestions for future research. An electronic search included three bibliographic databases, PubMed, CINAHL and Web of Science. Key terms were cluster analysis and nursing. The use of cluster analysis in the nursing literature is increasing and expanding. The increased use of cluster analysis in the nursing literature is positioning this statistical method to result in insights that have the potential to change clinical practice.

Clinical implications of basic science discoveries: induced pluripotent stem cell therapy in transplantation--a potential role for immunologic tolerance.

PubMed

Wertheim, J A; Leventhal, J R

2015-04-01

Induced pluripotent stem cells (iPSCs) hold the potential for future development of genetically identical tissues from almost any mature cell lineage. For clinical applications in cell therapy and transplantation, it may provide a means to one-day restore dysfunctional or damaged tissue without the need for immunosuppression. A recent study by de Almeida et al published in the journal Nature Communications indicates that iPSCs may indeed elicit an immune response that evolves as cells differentiate toward maturity to induce a state of tolerance within a recipient animal. If these early findings hold true, it suggests a possible explanation for self-recognition of mature cells derived from iPSCs for use in future therapeutic interventions in transplantation such as cellular therapy or tissue engineering. © Copyright 2015 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

Will our children be healthy adults? Applying science to public health policy.

PubMed

Law, Catherine

2010-12-01

Cardiovascular disease is predicted to be a leading cause of death and disability worldwide for the foreseeable future. Observational studies link a variety of prevalent early life experiences (for example, smoking in pregnancy, child poverty) to increased risk of adult cardiovascular disease. Experimental animal studies suggest plausible causal relationships. However, there has been little consideration of how to use this wealth of information to benefit children's futures. Policy documents have drawn on research evidence to recognise that early experience influences life chances, the development of human capital, and long-term health. This has led to a general policy emphasis on prevention and early intervention. To date, there are few examples of the evidence base being useful in shaping specific policies, despite potential to do so, and some examples of policy misunderstanding of science. Minor changes to the perspectives of epidemiological research in this area might greatly increase the potential for evidence-based policy.

Time domain simulation of novel photovoltaic materials

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Chung, Haejun

Thin-film silicon-based solar cells have operated far from the Shockley- Queisser limit in all experiments to date. Novel light-trapping structures, however, may help address this limitation. Finite-difference time domain simulation methods offer the potential to accurately determine the light-trapping potential of arbitrary dielectric structures, but suffer from materials modeling problems. In this thesis, existing dispersion models for novel photovoltaic materials will be reviewed, and a novel dispersion model, known as the quadratic complex rational function (QCRF), will be proposed. It has the advantage of accurately fitting experimental semiconductor dielectric values over a wide bandwidth in a numerically stable fashion. Applying the proposed dispersion model, a statistically correlated surface texturing method will be suggested, and light absorption rates of it will be explained. In future work, these designs will be combined with other structures and optimized to help guide future experiments.

Discrimination, Subjective Wellbeing, and the Role of Gender: A Mediation Model of LGB Minority Stress.

PubMed

Conlin, Sarah E; Douglass, Richard P; Ouch, Staci

2017-10-26

The present study examined the link between discrimination and the three components of subjective wellbeing (positive and negative affect and life satisfaction) among a cisgender sample of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) adults. Specifically, we investigated internalized homonegativity and expectations of rejection as potential mediators of the links between discrimination and subjective wellbeing among a sample of 215 participants. Results from our structural equation model demonstrated a strong, positive direct link between discrimination and negative affect. Discrimination also had small, negative indirect effects on life satisfaction through our two mediators. Interestingly, neither discrimination nor our two mediators were related with positive affect, demonstrating the need for future research to uncover potential buffers of this link. Finally, our model evidenced configural, metric, and scalar invariance, suggesting that our model applies well for both women and men. Practical implications and future directions for research are discussed.

Cartographic and geodetic methods to characterize the potential landing sites for the future Russian missions Luna-Glob and Luna-Resurs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Karachevtseva, I. P.; Kokhanov, A. A.; Konopikhin, A. A.; Nadezhdina, I. E.; Zubarev, A. E.; Patratiy, V. D.; Kozlova, N. A.; Uchaev, D. V.; Uchaev, Dm. V.; Malinnikov, V. A.; Oberst, J.

2015-04-01

Characterization of the potential landing sites for the planned Luna-Glob and Luna-Resurs Russian missions requires cartographic and geodetic support prepared with special methods and techniques that are briefly overviewed here. The data used in the analysis, including the digital terrain models (DTMs) and the orthoimages acquired in the survey carried out from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter and Kaguya spacecraft, are described and evaluated. By way of illustration, different regions of the lunar surface, including the subpolar regions of the Moon, are characterized with the suggested methods and the GIS-technologies. The development of the information support for the future lunar missions started in 2011, and it is now carried on in MIIGAiK Extraterrestrial Laboratory (MExLab), which is a department of the Moscow State University of Geodesy and Cartography (MIIGAiK).

Climate change and wetland loss impacts on a western river's water quality

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R. M.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W. G.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K. C.

2014-11-01

An understanding of potential stream water quality conditions under future climate is critical for the sustainability of ecosystems and the protection of human health. Changes in wetland water balance under projected climate could alter wetland extent or cause wetland loss (e.g., via increased evapotranspiration and lower growing season flows leading to reduced riparian wetland inundation) or altered land use patterns. This study assessed the potential climate-induced changes to in-stream sediment and nutrient loads in the snowmelt-dominated Sprague River, Oregon, western US. Additionally, potential water quality impacts of combined changes in wetland water balance and wetland area under future climatic conditions were evaluated. The study utilized the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with statistical downscaling of general circulation model (GCM) data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) using the Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA) method. Our findings suggest that, in the Sprague River, (1) mid-21st century nutrient and sediment loads could increase significantly during the high-flow season under warmer, wetter climate projections or could change only nominally in a warmer and somewhat drier future; (2) although water quality conditions under some future climate scenarios and no wetland loss may be similar to the past, the combined impact of climate change and wetland losses on nutrient loads could be large; (3) increases in stream total phosphorus (TP) concentration with wetland loss under future climate scenarios would be greatest at high-magnitude, low-probability flows; and (4) loss of riparian wetlands in both headwaters and lowlands could increase outlet TP loads to a similar degree, but this could be due to distinctly different mechanisms in different parts of the watershed.

International publication trends in the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis: 2000-2014.

PubMed

Martin, Neil T; Nosik, Melissa R; Carr, James E

2016-06-01

Dymond, Clarke, Dunlap, and Steiner's (2000) analysis of international publication trends in the Journal of Applied Behavior Analysis (JABA) from 1970 to 1999 revealed low numbers of publications from outside North America, leading the authors to express concern about the lack of international involvement in applied behavior analysis. They suggested that a future review would be necessary to evaluate any changes in international authorship in the journal. As a follow-up, we analyzed non-U.S. publication trends in the most recent 15 years of JABA and found similar results. We discuss potential reasons for the relative paucity of international authors and suggest potential strategies for increasing non-U.S. contributions to the advancement of behavior analysis. © 2015 Society for the Experimental Analysis of Behavior.

Ocean acidification stimulates particulate organic carbon accumulation in two Antarctic diatom species under moderate and high natural solar radiation.

PubMed

Heiden, Jasmin P; Thoms, Silke; Bischof, Kai; Trimborn, Scarlett

2018-05-23

Impacts of rising atmospheric CO 2 concentrations and increased daily irradiances from enhanced surface water stratification on phytoplankton physiology in the coastal Southern Ocean remain still unclear. Therefore, in the two Antarctic diatoms Fragilariopsis curta and Odontella weissflogii the effects of moderate and high natural solar radiation combined with either ambient or future pCO 2 on cellular particulate organic carbon (POC) contents and photophysiology were investigated. Results showed that increasing CO 2 concentrations had greater impacts on diatom physiology than exposure to increasing solar radiation. Irrespective of the applied solar radiation regime, cellular POC quotas increased with future pCO 2 in both diatoms. Lowered maximum quantum yields of photochemistry in PSII (F v /F m ) indicated a higher photosensitivity under these conditions, being counteracted by increased cellular concentrations of functional photosynthetic reaction centers. Overall, our results suggest that both bloom-forming Antarctic coastal diatoms might increase carbon contents under future pCO 2 conditions despite reduced physiological fitness. This indicates a higher potential for primary productivity by the two diatom species with important implications for the CO 2 sequestration potential of diatom communities in the future coastal Southern Ocean. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Ocean deoxygenation in a warming world.

PubMed

Keeling, Ralph E; Körtzinger, Arne; Gruber, Nicolas

2010-01-01

Ocean warming and increased stratification of the upper ocean caused by global climate change will likely lead to declines in dissolved O2 in the ocean interior (ocean deoxygenation) with implications for ocean productivity, nutrient cycling, carbon cycling, and marine habitat. Ocean models predict declines of 1 to 7% in the global ocean O2 inventory over the next century, with declines continuing for a thousand years or more into the future. An important consequence may be an expansion in the area and volume of so-called oxygen minimum zones, where O2 levels are too low to support many macrofauna and profound changes in biogeochemical cycling occur. Significant deoxygenation has occurred over the past 50 years in the North Pacific and tropical oceans, suggesting larger changes are looming. The potential for larger O2 declines in the future suggests the need for an improved observing system for tracking ocean 02 changes.

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis

PubMed Central

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G. John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F. André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species’ native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain. PMID:27248830

Impacts of Climate Change on the Global Invasion Potential of the African Clawed Frog Xenopus laevis.

PubMed

Ihlow, Flora; Courant, Julien; Secondi, Jean; Herrel, Anthony; Rebelo, Rui; Measey, G John; Lillo, Francesco; De Villiers, F André; Vogt, Solveig; De Busschere, Charlotte; Backeljau, Thierry; Rödder, Dennis

2016-01-01

By altering or eliminating delicate ecological relationships, non-indigenous species are considered a major threat to biodiversity, as well as a driver of environmental change. Global climate change affects ecosystems and ecological communities, leading to changes in the phenology, geographic ranges, or population abundance of several species. Thus, predicting the impacts of global climate change on the current and future distribution of invasive species is an important subject in macroecological studies. The African clawed frog (Xenopus laevis), native to South Africa, possesses a strong invasion potential and populations have become established in numerous countries across four continents. The global invasion potential of X. laevis was assessed using correlative species distribution models (SDMs). SDMs were computed based on a comprehensive set of occurrence records covering South Africa, North America, South America and Europe and a set of nine environmental predictors. Models were built using both a maximum entropy model and an ensemble approach integrating eight algorithms. The future occurrence probabilities for X. laevis were subsequently computed using bioclimatic variables for 2070 following four different IPCC scenarios. Despite minor differences between the statistical approaches, both SDMs predict the future potential distribution of X. laevis, on a global scale, to decrease across all climate change scenarios. On a continental scale, both SDMs predict decreasing potential distributions in the species' native range in South Africa, as well as in the invaded areas in North and South America, and in Australia where the species has not been introduced. In contrast, both SDMs predict the potential range size to expand in Europe. Our results suggest that all probability classes will be equally affected by climate change. New regional conditions may promote new invasions or the spread of established invasive populations, especially in France and Great Britain.

Development of a public health nursing data infrastructure.

PubMed

Monsen, Karen A; Bekemeier, Betty; P Newhouse, Robin; Scutchfield, F Douglas

2012-01-01

An invited group of national public health nursing (PHN) scholars, practitioners, policymakers, and other stakeholders met in October 2010 identifying a critical need for a national PHN data infrastructure to support PHN research. This article summarizes the strengths, limitations, and gaps specific to PHN data and proposes a research agenda for development of a PHN data infrastructure. Future implications are suggested, such as issues related to the development of the proposed PHN data infrastructure and future research possibilities enabled by the infrastructure. Such a data infrastructure has potential to improve accountability and measurement, to demonstrate the value of PHN services, and to improve population health. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Precise and traceable carbon isotope ratio measurements by multicollector ICP-MS: what next?

PubMed

Santamaria-Fernandez, Rebeca

2010-06-01

This article reviews recent developments in the use of multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS) to provide high-precision carbon isotope ratio measurements. MC-ICP-MS could become an alternative method to isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) for rapid carbon isotope ratio determinations in organic compounds and characterisation and certification of isotopic reference materials. In this overview, the advantages, drawbacks and potential of the method for future applications are critically discussed. Furthermore, suggestions for future improvements in terms of precision and sensitivity are made. No doubt, this is an exciting analytical challenge and, as such, hurdles will need to be cleared.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming.

PubMed

Singh, Martin S; Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D; Hannah, Walter M; Wolding, Brandon O

2017-10-31

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth's atmosphere. Published under the PNAS license.

Increasing potential for intense tropical and subtropical thunderstorms under global warming

PubMed Central

Kuang, Zhiming; Maloney, Eric D.; Hannah, Walter M.; Wolding, Brandon O.

2017-01-01

Intense thunderstorms produce rapid cloud updrafts and may be associated with a range of destructive weather events. An important ingredient in measures of the potential for intense thunderstorms is the convective available potential energy (CAPE). Climate models project increases in summertime mean CAPE in the tropics and subtropics in response to global warming, but the physical mechanisms responsible for such increases and the implications for future thunderstorm activity remain uncertain. Here, we show that high percentiles of the CAPE distribution (CAPE extremes) also increase robustly with warming across the tropics and subtropics in an ensemble of state-of-the-art climate models, implying strong increases in the frequency of occurrence of environments conducive to intense thunderstorms in future climate projections. The increase in CAPE extremes is consistent with a recently proposed theoretical model in which CAPE depends on the influence of convective entrainment on the tropospheric lapse rate, and we demonstrate the importance of this influence for simulated CAPE extremes using a climate model in which the convective entrainment rate is varied. We further show that the theoretical model is able to account for the climatological relationship between CAPE and a measure of lower-tropospheric humidity in simulations and in observations. Our results provide a physical basis on which to understand projected future increases in intense thunderstorm potential, and they suggest that an important mechanism that contributes to such increases may be present in Earth’s atmosphere. PMID:29078312

Global Assessment of Exploitable Surface Reservoir Storage under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, L.; Parkinson, S.; Gidden, M.; Byers, E.; Satoh, Y.; Riahi, K.

2016-12-01

Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply systems, hydropower generation, flood control, and recreation services. Reliable reservoirs can be robust measures for water security and can help smooth out challenging seasonal variability of river flows. Yet, reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and can lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-uses and ecosystems. The anticipated population growth, land use and climate change in many regions globally suggest a critical need to assess the potential for appropriate reservoir capacity that can balance rising demands with long-term water security. In this research, we assessed exploitable reservoir potential under climate change and human development constraints by deriving storage-yield relationships for 235 river basins globally. The storage-yield relationships map the amount of storage capacity required to meet a given water demand based on a 30-year inflow sequence. Runoff data is simulated with an ensemble of Global Hydrological Models (GHMs) for each of five bias-corrected general circulation models (GCMs) under four climate change pathways. These data are used to define future 30-year inflows in each river basin for time period between 2010 and 2080. The calculated capacity is then combined with geographical information of environmental and human development exclusion zones to further limit the storage capacity expansion potential in each basin. We investigated the reliability of reservoir potentials across different climate change scenarios and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to identify river basins where reservoir expansion will be particularly challenging. Preliminary results suggest large disparities in reservoir potential across basins: some basins have already approached exploitable reserves, while some others display abundant potential. Exclusions zones pose significant impact on the amount of actual exploitable storage and firm yields worldwide: 30% of reservoir potential would be unavailable because of land occupation by environmental and human development. Results from this study will help decision makers to understand the reliability of infrastructure systems particularly sensitive to future water availability.

Stress and asthma: novel insights on genetic, epigenetic, and immunologic mechanisms.

PubMed

Rosenberg, Stacy L; Miller, Gregory E; Brehm, John M; Celedón, Juan C

2014-11-01

In the United States the economically disadvantaged and some ethnic minorities are often exposed to chronic psychosocial stressors and disproportionately affected by asthma. Current evidence suggests a causal association between chronic psychosocial stress and asthma or asthma morbidity. Recent findings suggest potential mechanisms underlying this association, including changes in the methylation and expression of genes that regulate behavioral, autonomic, neuroendocrine, and immunologic responses to stress. There is also evidence suggesting the existence of susceptibility genes that predispose chronically stressed youth to both post-traumatic stress disorder and asthma. In this review we critically examine published evidence and suggest future directions for research in this field. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Allergy, Asthma & Immunology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Demographic stability metrics for conservation prioritization of isolated populations.

PubMed

Finn, Debra S; Bogan, Michael T; Lytle, David A

2009-10-01

Systems of geographically isolated habitat patches house species that occur naturally as small, disjunct populations. Many of these species are of conservation concern, particularly under the interacting influences of isolation and rapid global change. One potential conservation strategy is to prioritize the populations most likely to persist through change and act as sources for future recolonization of less stable localities. We propose an approach to classify long-term population stability (and, presumably, future persistence potential) with composite demographic metrics derived from standard population-genetic data. Stability metrics can be related to simple habitat measures for a straightforward method of classifying localities to inform conservation management. We tested these ideas in a system of isolated desert headwater streams with mitochondrial sequence data from 16 populations of a flightless aquatic insect. Populations exhibited a wide range of stability scores, which were significantly predicted by dry-season aquatic habitat size. This preliminary test suggests strong potential for our proposed method of classifying isolated populations according to persistence potential. The approach is complementary to existing methods for prioritizing local habitats according to diversity patterns and should be tested further in other systems and with additional loci to inform composite demographic stability scores.

Recognition of LPS by TLR4: Potential for Anti-Inflammatory Therapies

PubMed Central

Nijland, Reindert; Hofland, Tom; van Strijp, Jos A. G.

2014-01-01

LPS molecules of marine bacteria show structures distinct from terrestrial bacteria, due to the different environment that marine bacteria live in. Because of these different structures, lipid A molecules from marine bacteria are most often poor stimulators of the Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) pathway. Due to their low stimulatory potential, these lipid A molecules are suggested to be applicable as antagonists of TLR4 signaling in sepsis patients, where this immune response is amplified and unregulated. Antagonizing lipid A molecules might be used for future therapies against sepsis, therapies that currently do not exist. In this review, we will discuss these differences in lipid A structures and their recognition by the immune system. The modifications present in marine lipid A structures are described, and their potential as LPS antagonists will be discussed. Finally, since clinical trials built on antagonizing lipid A molecules have proven unsuccessful, we propose to also focus on different aspects of the TLR4 signaling pathway when searching for new potential drugs. Furthermore, we put forward the notion that bacteria probably already produce inhibitors of TLR4 signaling, making these bacterial products interesting molecules to investigate for future sepsis therapies. PMID:25056632

Fuzzy Set Theory and Medicine: The First Twenty Years and Beyond

PubMed Central

Maiers, Jerald E.

1985-01-01

Fuzzy set theory is a mathematical sub-disipline, initially introduced in 1965. Essentially it was conceived as a formal approach to deal with the imprecision characteristic of real world applications, particularly medical issues. This review summarizes the medical applications of fuzzy set theory to date; assesses the value of fuzzy sets in medical applications; and suggests future potential for such an approach.

Current legal and institutional issues in the commercialization of phosphoric acid fuel cells

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Nimmons, J. T.; Sheehy, K. D.; Singer, J. R.; Gardner, T. C.

1982-01-01

Legal and institutional factors affecting the development and commercial diffusion of phosphoric acid fuel cells are assessed. Issues for future research and action are suggested. Perceived barriers and potential opportunities for fuel cells in central and dispersed utility operations and on-site applications are reviewed, as well as the general concept of commercialization as applied to emerging energy technologies.

Mobile Social Networking Health (MSNet-Health): beyond the mHealth frontier.

PubMed

Househ, Mowafa

2012-01-01

The purpose of this conceptual paper is to introduce the concept of Mobile Social Networking Healthcare (MSNet-Health). The paper defines MSNet-Health and provides a working scenario of MSNet-Health. The paper suggests various potential domain area applications for MSNet-Health, such as diabetes, antenatal education, smoking cessation, weight loss, and arthritis. Challenges and future research areas are also discussed.

Research Suggestions in the Design of a Global Graduate Business Program Delivered by Online Learning

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Puderbaugh, Amy

2015-01-01

The purpose of this paper was to examine the unique areas of concern when establishing an eLearning program in the field of global business. A survey of eLearning and a global management subject matter appears. This paper identifies potential challenges in program design and raises practical concerns for future research. [For the full proceedings,…

Stand development and yields of Appalachian hardwood stands managed with single-tree selection for at least 30 years

Treesearch

Neil I Lamson; H. Clay Smith; H. Clay Smith

1991-01-01

Appalachian hardwood stands in West Virginia were managed for 30 or more years using single-tree selection regeneration practices. Stand yield data suggest that current stand growth will provide economical harvest cuts for several future cutting cycles. This case study indicates that the single-tree selection practice has potential for landowners who want to maintain...

Drugs for cardiovascular disease in India: perspectives of pharmaceutical executives and government officials on access and development-a qualitative analysis.

PubMed

Newman, Charles; Ajay, Vamadevan S; Srinivas, Ravi; Bhalla, Sandeep; Prabhakaran, Dorairaj; Banerjee, Amitava

2016-01-01

India shoulders the greatest global burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), which are the leading cause of mortality worldwide. Drugs are the bedrock of treatment and prevention of CVD. India's pharmaceutical industry is the third largest, by volume, globally, but access to CVD drugs in India is poor. There is a lack of qualitative data from government and pharmaceutical sectors regarding CVD drug development and access in India. By purposive sampling, we recruited either Indian government officials, or pharmaceutical company executives. We conducted a stakeholder analysis via semi-structured, face-to-face interviews in India. Topic guides allow for the exploration of key issues across multiple interviews, along with affording the interviewer the flexibility to examine matters arising from the discussions themselves. After transcription, interviews underwent inductive thematic analysis. Ten participants were interviewed (Government Officials: n = 5, and Pharmaceutical Executives: n = 5). Two themes emerged: i) 'Policy-derived Factors'; ii) 'Patient- derived Factors' with three findings. First, both government and pharmaceutical participants felt that the focus of Indian pharma is shifting to more complex, high-quality generics and to new drug development, but production of generic drugs rather than new molecular entities will remain a major activity. Second, current trial regulations in India may restrict India's potential role in the future development of CVD drugs. Third, it is likely that the Indian government will tighten its intellectual property regime in future, with potentially far-reaching implications on CVD drug development and access. Our stakeholder analysis provides some support for present patent regulations, whilst suggesting areas for further research in order to inform future policy decisions regarding CVD drug development and availability. Whilst interviewees suggested government policy plays an important role in shaping the industry, a significant force for change was ascribed to patient-derived factors. This suggests a potential role for Indian initiatives that market the unique advantages of its patient population for drug research in influencing national and multinational pharmaceutical companies to undertake CVD drug development in India, rather than simply IP policy-directed factors.

What about Place? Considering the Role of Physical Environment on Youth Imagining of Future Possible Selves

PubMed Central

Prince, Dana

2013-01-01

Identity research indicates that development of well elaborated cognitions about oneself in the future, or one's possible selves, is consequential for youths' developmental trajectories, influencing a range of social, health, and educational outcomes. Although the theory of possible selves considers the role of social contexts in identity development, the potential influence of the physical environment is understudied. At the same time, a growing body of work spanning multiple disciplines points to the salience of place, or the meaningful physical environments of people's everyday lives, as an active contributor to self-identity. Bridging these two lines of inquiry, I provide evidence to show how place-based experiences, such as belonging, aversion, and entrapment, may be internalized and encoded into possible selves, thus producing emplaced future self-concept. I suggest that for young people, visioning self in the future is inextricably bound with place; place is an active contributor both in the present development of future self-concept and in enabling young people to envision different future possible places. Implications for practice and future research include place-making interventions and conceptualizing place beyond “neighborhood effects.” PMID:25642137

Priming, not inhibition, of related concepts during future imagining.

PubMed

Campbell, Karen L; Benoit, Roland G; Schacter, Daniel L

2017-10-01

Remembering the past and imagining the future both involve the retrieval of details stored in episodic memory and rely on the same core network of brain regions. Given these parallels, one might expect similar component processes to be involved in remembering and imagining. While a strong case can be made for the role of inhibition in memory retrieval, few studies have examined whether inhibition is also necessary for future imagining and results to-date have been mixed. In the current study, we test whether related concepts are inhibited during future imagining using a modified priming approach. Participants first generated a list of familiar places and for each place, the people they most strongly associate with it. A week later, participants imagined future events involving recombinations of people and places, immediately followed by a speeded response task in which participants made familiarity decisions about people's names. Across two experiments, our results suggest that related concepts are not inhibited during future imagining, but rather are automatically primed. These results fit with recent work showing that autobiographically significant concepts (e.g., friends' names) are more episodic than semantic in nature, automatically activating related details in memory and potentially fuelling the flexible simulation of future events.

Spatial analysis of plague in California: niche modeling predictions of the current distribution and potential response to climate change

PubMed Central

Holt, Ashley C; Salkeld, Daniel J; Fritz, Curtis L; Tucker, James R; Gong, Peng

2009-01-01

Background Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance. Results Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras. Conclusion Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions. PMID:19558717

Increasing the realism of projected tree species ranges by incorporating migration potential: an eastern US case study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rogers, B. M.; Jantz, P.; Goetz, S. J.

2015-12-01

Models of vegetation distributions are used for a wide variety of purposes, from global assessments of biome shifts and biogeochemical feedbacks to local management planning. Dynamic vegetation models, mostly mechanistic in origin, are valuable for regional to global studies but remain limited for more local-scale applications, especially those that require species-specific responses to climate change. Species distribution models (SDMs) are broadly used for such applications, but these too have several outstanding limitations, one of the most prominent being a lack of dispersal and migration. Several hybrid models have recently been developed, but these generally require detailed parameterization of species-level attributes that may not be known. Here we present an approach to couple migration potential with SDM output for a large number of species in order to more realistically project future range shifts. We focus on 40 tree species in the eastern US of potential management concern, either because of their canopy dominance, ecosystem functions, or potential for utilizing future climates. Future climates were taken from a CMIP5 model ensemble average using RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. We used Random Forests to characterize current and future environmental suitability, and modeled migration as a negative exponential kernel that is affected by forest fragmentation and the density of current seed sources. We present results in a vulnerability framework relevant for a number of ongoing management activities in the region. We find an overarching pattern of northward and eastward range shifts, with high-elevation and northern species being the most adversely impacted. Because of limitations to migration, many newly suitable areas could not be utilized without active intervention. Only a few areas exhibited consistently favorable conditions that could be utilized by the relevant species, including the central Appalachian foothills and the Florida panhandle. We suggest that a continued effort to include migration potential into vegetation models can lead to more realistic results and management-relevant products.

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

PubMed

Fisichelli, Nicholas A; Schuurman, Gregor W; Monahan, William B; Ziesler, Pamela S

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979-2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041-2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67-77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8-23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13-31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation.

Protected Area Tourism in a Changing Climate: Will Visitation at US National Parks Warm Up or Overheat?

PubMed Central

Fisichelli, Nicholas A.; Schuurman, Gregor W.; Monahan, William B.; Ziesler, Pamela S.

2015-01-01

Climate change will affect not only natural and cultural resources within protected areas but also tourism and visitation patterns. The U.S. National Park Service systematically collects data regarding its 270+ million annual recreation visits, and therefore provides an opportunity to examine how human visitation may respond to climate change from the tropics to the polar regions. To assess the relationship between climate and park visitation, we evaluated historical monthly mean air temperature and visitation data (1979–2013) at 340 parks and projected potential future visitation (2041–2060) based on two warming-climate scenarios and two visitation-growth scenarios. For the entire park system a third-order polynomial temperature model explained 69% of the variation in historical visitation trends. Visitation generally increased with increasing average monthly temperature, but decreased strongly with temperatures > 25°C. Linear to polynomial monthly temperature models also explained historical visitation at individual parks (R2 0.12-0.99, mean = 0.79, median = 0.87). Future visitation at almost all parks (95%) may change based on historical temperature, historical visitation, and future temperature projections. Warming-mediated increases in potential visitation are projected for most months in most parks (67–77% of months; range across future scenarios), resulting in future increases in total annual visits across the park system (8–23%) and expansion of the visitation season at individual parks (13–31 days). Although very warm months at some parks may see decreases in future visitation, this potential change represents a relatively small proportion of visitation across the national park system. A changing climate is likely to have cascading and complex effects on protected area visitation, management, and local economies. Results suggest that protected areas and neighboring communities that develop adaptation strategies for these changes may be able to both capitalize on opportunities and minimize detriment related to changing visitation. PMID:26083361

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7-11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study.

PubMed

Faber, Irene R; Elferink-Gemser, Marije T; Faber, Niels R; Oosterveld, Frits G J; Nijhuis-Van der Sanden, Maria W G

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players' potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player's future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7-11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items 'aiming at target', 'throwing a ball', and 'eye-hand coordination' in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment's outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent development programme. Future studies are needed to clarify the predictive value in a larger sample of youth competition players over a longer period in time.

Pharmacological Treatment of Obesity in Children and Adolescents: Present and Future

PubMed Central

Iughetti, Lorenzo; China, Mariachiara; Berri, Rossella; Predieri, Barbara

2011-01-01

The prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing in children and adolescents worldwide raising the question on the approach to this condition because of the potential morbidity, mortality, and economic tolls. Dietetic and behavioral treatments alone have only limited success; consequently, discussion on strategies for treating childhood and adolescent obesity has been promoted. Considering that our knowledge on the physiological systems regulating food intake and body weight is considerably increased, many studies have underlined the scientific and clinical relevance of potential treatments based on management of peripheral or central neuropeptides signals by drugs. In this paper, we analyze the data on the currently approved obesity pharmacological treatment suggesting the new potential drugs. PMID:21197151

Commentary: The Development of Creativity--Ability, Motivation, and Potential.

PubMed

Silvia, Paul J; Christensen, Alexander P; Cotter, Katherine N

2016-01-01

A major question for research on the development of creativity is whether it is interested in creative potential (a prospective approach that uses measures early in life to predict adult creativity) or in children's creativity for its own sake. We suggest that a focus on potential for future creativity diminishes the fascinating creative world of childhood. The contributions to this issue can be organized in light of an ability × motivation framework, which offers a fruitful way for thinking about the many factors that foster and impede creativity. The contributions reflect a renewed interest in the development of creativity and highlight how this area can illuminate broader problems in creativity studies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Alternative future analysis for assessing the potential impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics.

PubMed

He, Chunyang; Zhao, Yuanyuan; Huang, Qingxu; Zhang, Qiaofeng; Zhang, Da

2015-11-01

Assessing the impact of climate change on urban landscape dynamics (ULD) is the foundation for adapting to climate change and maintaining urban landscape sustainability. This paper demonstrates an alternative future analysis by coupling a system dynamics (SD) and a cellular automata (CA) model. The potential impact of different climate change scenarios on ULD from 2009 to 2030 was simulated and evaluated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan megalopolis cluster area (BTT-MCA). The results suggested that the integrated model, which combines the advantages of the SD and CA model, has the strengths of spatial quantification and flexibility. Meanwhile, the results showed that the influence of climate change would become more severe over time. In 2030, the potential urban area affected by climate change will be 343.60-1260.66 km(2) (5.55 -20.37 % of the total urban area, projected by the no-climate-change-effect scenario). Therefore, the effects of climate change should not be neglected when designing and managing urban landscape. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Magnetic Resonance Guided Focused Ultrasound Surgery: Part 2 – A Review of Current and Future Applications

PubMed Central

Medel, Ricky; Monteith, Stephen J.; Elias, W. Jeffrey; Eames, Matthew; Snell, John; Sheehan, Jason P.; Wintermark, Max; Jolesz, Ferenc A.; Kassell, Neal F.

2014-01-01

Magnetic Resonance guided Focused Ultrasound Surgery (MRgFUS) represents a novel combination of technologies that is actively being realized as a non-invasive therapeutic tool for a myriad of conditions. These applications are reviewed with a focus on neurological utilization. A combined search of Pubmed and Medline was performed to identify the key events and current status of MRgFUS, with a focus on neurological applications. MRgFUS signifies a potentially ideal device for the treatment of neurological diseases. As it is nearly real-time, it allows monitored provision of treatment location and energy deposition, is noninvasive, thereby limiting or eliminating disruption of normal tissue, provides focal delivery of therapeutic agents, enhances radiation delivery, and permits modulation of neural function. Multiple clinical applications are currently in clinical use and many more are under active preclinical investigation. The therapeutic potential of MRgFUS is expanding rapidly. Although clinically in its infancy, preclinical and early phase I clinical trials in neurosurgery suggest a promising future for MRgFUS. Further investigation is necessary to define its true potential and impact. PMID:22791029

Projected future changes in vegetation in western North America in the 21st century

USGS Publications Warehouse

Xiaoyan, Jiang; Rauscher, Sara A.; Ringler, Todd D.; Lawrence, David M.; Williams, A. Park; Allen, Craig D.; Steiner, Allison L.; Cai, D. Michael; McDowell, Nate G.

2013-01-01

Rapid and broad-scale forest mortality associated with recent droughts, rising temperature, and insect outbreaks has been observed over western North America (NA). Climate models project additional future warming and increasing drought and water stress for this region. To assess future potential changes in vegetation distributions in western NA, the Community Earth System Model (CESM) coupled with its Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (DGVM) was used under the future A2 emissions scenario. To better span uncertainties in future climate, eight sea surface temperature (SST) projections provided by phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) were employed as boundary conditions. There is a broad consensus among the simulations, despite differences in the simulated climate trajectories across the ensemble, that about half of the needleleaf evergreen tree coverage (from 24% to 11%) will disappear, coincident with a 14% (from 11% to 25%) increase in shrubs and grasses by the end of the twenty-first century in western NA, with most of the change occurring over the latter half of the twenty-first century. The net impact is a ~6 GtC or about 50% decrease in projected ecosystem carbon storage in this region. The findings suggest a potential for a widespread shift from tree-dominated landscapes to shrub and grass-dominated landscapes in western NA because of future warming and consequent increases in water deficits. These results highlight the need for improved process-based understanding of vegetation dynamics, particularly including mortality and the subsequent incorporation of these mechanisms into earth system models to better quantify the vulnerability of western NA forests under climate change.

A big data analysis of the relationship between future thinking and decision-making.

PubMed

Thorstad, Robert; Wolff, Phillip

2018-02-20

We use big data methods to investigate how decision-making might depend on future sightedness (that is, on how far into the future people's thoughts about the future extend). In study 1, we establish a link between future thinking and decision-making at the population level in showing that US states with citizens having relatively far future sightedness, as reflected in their tweets, take fewer risks than citizens in states having relatively near future sightedness. In study 2, we analyze people's tweets to confirm a connection between future sightedness and decision-making at the individual level in showing that people with long future sightedness are more likely to choose larger future rewards over smaller immediate rewards. In study 3, we show that risk taking decreases with increases in future sightedness as reflected in people's tweets. The ability of future sightedness to predict decisions suggests that future sightedness is a relatively stable cognitive characteristic. This implication was supported in an analysis of tweets by over 38,000 people that showed that future sightedness has both state and trait characteristics (study 4). In study 5, we provide evidence for a potential mechanism by which future sightedness can affect decisions in showing that far future sightedness can make the future seem more connected to the present, as reflected in how people refer to the present, past, and future in their tweets over the course of several minutes. Our studies show how big data methods can be applied to naturalistic data to reveal underlying psychological properties and processes.

The Influence of Social Networking Photos on Social Norms and Sexual Health Behaviors

PubMed Central

Jordan, Alexander H.

2013-01-01

Abstract Two studies tested whether online social networking technologies influence health behavioral social norms, and in turn, personal health behavioral intentions. In Study 1, experimental participants browsed peers' Facebook photos on a college network with a low prevalence of sexually suggestive content. Participants estimated the percentage of their peers who have sex without condoms, and rated their own future intentions to use condoms. Experimental participants, compared to controls who did not view photos, estimated that a larger percentage of their peers use condoms, and indicated a greater intention to use condoms themselves in the future. In Study 2, participants were randomly assigned to view sexually suggestive or nonsexually suggestive Facebook photos, and responded to sexual risk behavioral questions. Compared to participants viewing nonsuggestive photos, those who viewed sexually suggestive Facebook photos estimated that a larger percentage of their peers have unprotected sexual intercourse and sex with strangers and were more likely to report that they themselves would engage in these behaviors. Thus, online social networks can influence perceptions of the peer prevalence of sexual risk behaviors, and can influence users' own intentions with regard to such behaviors. These studies suggest the potential power of social networks to affect health behaviors by altering perceptions of peer norms. PMID:23438268

Dry forest resilience varies under simulated climate‐management scenarios in a central Oregon, USA landscape.

PubMed

Halofsky, Joshua S; Halofsky, Jessica E; Burcsu, Theresa; Hemstrom, Miles A

Determining appropriate actions to create or maintain landscapes resilient to climate change is challenging because of uncertainty associated with potential effects of climate change and their interactions with land management. We used a set of climate-informed state-and-transition models to explore the effects of management and natural disturbances on vegetation composition and structure under different future climates. Models were run for dry forests of central Oregon under a fire suppression scenario (i.e., no management other than the continued suppression of wildfires) and an active management scenario characterized by light to moderate thinning from below and some prescribed fire, planting, and salvage logging. Without climate change, area in dry province forest types remained constant. With climate change, dry mixed-conifer forests increased in area (by an average of 21–26% by 2100), and moist mixed-conifer forests decreased in area (by an average of 36–60% by 2100), under both management scenarios. Average area in dry mixed-conifer forests varied little by management scenario, but potential decreases in the moist mixed-conifer forest were lower with active management. With changing climate in the dry province of central Oregon, our results suggest the likelihood of sustaining current levels of dense, moist mixed-conifer forests with large-diameter, old trees is low (less than a 10% chance) irrespective of management scenario; an opposite trend was observed under no climate change simulations. However, results also suggest active management within the dry and moist mixed-conifer forests that creates less dense forest conditions can increase the persistence of larger-diameter, older trees across the landscape. Owing to projected increases in wildfire, our results also suggest future distributions of tree structures will differ from the present. Overall, our projections indicate proactive management can increase forest resilience and sustain some societal values, particularly in drier forest types. However, opportunities to create more disturbance-adapted systems are finite, all values likely cannot be sustained at current levels, and levels of resilience success will likely vary by dry province forest type. Land managers planning for a future without climate change may be assuming a future that is unlikely to exist.

Eutrophication status of the North Sea, Skagerrak, Kattegat and the Baltic Sea in present and future climates: A model study

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Skogen, Morten D.; Eilola, Kari; Hansen, Jørgen L. S.; Meier, H. E. Markus; Molchanov, Mikhail S.; Ryabchenko, Vladimir A.

2014-04-01

A method to combine observations and an ensemble of ecological models has been used to assess eutrophication. Using downscaled forcing from two GCMs under the A1B emission scenario, an assessment of the eutrophication status was made for a control (1970-2000) and a future climate (2070-2100) period. By using validation results from a hindcast to compute individual weights between the models, an assessment of eutrophication is done using a set of threshold values. The final classification distinguishes between three categories: problem area, potential problem area, and non-problem area, in accordance with current management practice as suggested by the Oslo and Paris Commissions (OSPAR) and the Helsinki Commission (HELCOM). For the control run the assessment indicates that the Kattegat, the Danish Straits, the Gulf of Finland, the Gotland Basin as well as main parts of the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, and the Baltic proper may be classified as problem areas. The main part of the North Sea and also the Skagerrak are non-problem areas while the main parts of the Gulf of Bothnia, Gulf of Riga and the entire southeastern continental coast of the North Sea may be classified as potential problem areas. In the future climate scenarios most of the previous potential problem areas in the Baltic Sea have become problem areas, except for the Bothnian Bay where the situation remain fairly unchanged. In the North Sea there seems to be no obvious changes in eutrophication status in the projected future climate.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios.

PubMed

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981-2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011-2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas.

Potential Distribution Predicted for Rhynchophorus ferrugineus in China under Different Climate Warming Scenarios

PubMed Central

Ge, Xuezhen; He, Shanyong; Wang, Tao; Yan, Wei; Zong, Shixiang

2015-01-01

As the primary pest of palm trees, Rhynchophorus ferrugineus (Olivier) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) has caused serious harm to palms since it first invaded China. The present study used CLIMEX 1.1 to predict the potential distribution of R. ferrugineus in China according to both current climate data (1981–2010) and future climate warming estimates based on simulated climate data for the 2020s (2011–2040) provided by the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). Additionally, the Ecoclimatic Index (EI) values calculated for different climatic conditions (current and future, as simulated by the B2 scenario) were compared. Areas with a suitable climate for R. ferrugineus distribution were located primarily in central China according to the current climate data, with the northern boundary of the distribution reaching to 40.1°N and including Tibet, north Sichuan, central Shaanxi, south Shanxi, and east Hebei. There was little difference in the potential distribution predicted by the four emission scenarios according to future climate warming estimates. The primary prediction under future climate warming models was that, compared with the current climate model, the number of highly favorable habitats would increase significantly and expand into northern China, whereas the number of both favorable and marginally favorable habitats would decrease. Contrast analysis of EI values suggested that climate change and the density of site distribution were the main effectors of the changes in EI values. These results will help to improve control measures, prevent the spread of this pest, and revise the targeted quarantine areas. PMID:26496438

Episodic future thinking reduces eating in a food court.

PubMed

O'Neill, Jessica; Daniel, Tinuke Oluyomi; Epstein, Leonard H

2016-01-01

Episodic future thinking (EFT) is the psychological process of vividly imagining a future event, and this process has been shown to reduce overeating in the laboratory. To assess the efficacy of EFT in the natural environment, twenty-nine overweight or obese women who wanted to improve their eating habits were randomly assigned to one of two smartphone-implemented interventions--EFT or control episodic recent thinking (ERT)--while they ate dinner in a public food court. Results showed a reduction in consumption of total calories, a reduction in percent calories from fat, and an increase in percent calories from protein for EFT versus ERT. These data suggest EFT may be used to modify eating habits in natural eating environments, and may show potential as a component of behavioral obesity interventions. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Ostracod (Ostracoda, Crustacea) genomics - Promises and challenges.

PubMed

Schön, Isa; Martens, Koen

2016-10-01

Ostracods are well-suited model organisms for evolutionary research. Classic genetic techniques have mostly been used for phylogenetic studies on Ostracoda and were somewhat affected by the lack of large numbers of suitable markers. Genomic methods with their huge potential have so far rarely been applied to this group of crustaceans. We provide relevant examples of genomic studies on other organisms to propose future avenues of genomic ostracod research. At the same time, we suggest solutions to the potential problems in ostracods that the application of genomic techniques might present. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Motivations and usage patterns of Weibo.

PubMed

Zhang, Lixuan; Pentina, Iryna

2012-06-01

Referred to as "Weibo," microblogging in China has witnessed an exponential growth. In addition to the Twitter-like functionality, Weibo allows rich media uploads into user feeds, provides threaded comments, and offers applications, games, and Weibo medals. This expanded functionality, as well as the observed differences in trending content, suggests potentially different user motivations to join Weibo and their usage patterns compared to Twitter. This pioneering study identifies dominant Weibo user motivations and their effects on usage patterns. We discuss the findings of an online survey of 234 Weibo users and suggest managerial implications and future research directions.

Challenges to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Religiosity and Spirituality in Mental Health Research.

PubMed

Baumsteiger, Rachel; Chenneville, Tiffany

2015-12-01

Investigating religiosity and spirituality may help to further elucidate how individuals' worldviews influence their attitudes, behavior, and overall well-being. However, inconsistencies in how these constructs are conceptualized and measured may undercut the potential value of religiosity and spirituality research. Results from a survey of undergraduate students suggest that laypeople define spirituality as independent from social influence and that few people associate religiosity with negative terms. A content analysis of spirituality measures indicates that spirituality measures contain items that do not directly measure the strength of spirituality. Implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Recent Evidence Regarding Triclosan and Cancer Risk

PubMed Central

Dinwiddie, Michael T.; Terry, Paul D.; Chen, Jiangang

2014-01-01

Triclosan is a broad-spectrum antibacterial commonly used in cosmetics, dentifrices, and other consumer products. The compound’s widespread use in consumer products and its detection in breast milk, urine, and serum have raised concerns regarding its potential association with various human health outcomes. Recent evidence suggests that triclosan may play a role in cancer development, perhaps through its estrogenicity or ability to inhibit fatty acid synthesis. Our aims here are to review studies of human exposure levels, to evaluate the results of studies examining the effects of triclosan on cancer development, and to suggest possible directions for future research. PMID:24566048

A two-dose heterologous prime-boost vaccine regimen eliciting sustained immune responses to Ebola Zaire could support a preventive strategy for future outbreaks

PubMed Central

Shukarev, Georgi; Callendret, Benoit; Luhn, Kerstin; Douoguih, Macaya

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT The consequences of the 2013–16 Ebola Zaire virus disease epidemic in West Africa were grave. The economies, healthcare systems and communities of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia were devastated by over 18 months of active Ebola virus transmission, followed by sporadic resurgences potentially related to sexual transmission by survivors with viral persistence in body fluids following recovery. The need to develop and implement strategies to prevent and mitigate future outbreaks is now beyond dispute. The potential for unpredictable outbreaks of indeterminate duration, and control challenges posed by the possibility of sporadic re-emergence, mean that implementation of an effective vaccination program for outbreak containment necessitates a vaccine providing durable immunity. Heterologous prime-boost vaccine regimens deliver the same or similar antigens through different vaccine types, the first to prime and the second to boost the immune system. Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo is an investigational Ebola Zaire vaccine regimen that uses this heterologous prime-boost approach. Preliminary Phase 1 data suggest that Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo confers durable immunity for at least 240 d and is well-tolerated with a good safety profile. This regimen may therefore be suitable for prophylactic use in a regional or targeted population vaccination strategy, and could potentially aid prevention and control of future Ebola outbreaks. PMID:27925844

The Lunar Roving Vehicle: Historical perspective

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Morea, Saverio F.

1992-01-01

As NASA proceeds with its studies, planning, and technology efforts in preparing for the early twenty-first century, it seems appropriate to reexamine past programs for potential applicability in meeting future national space science and exploration goals and objectives. Both the National Commission on Space (NCOS) study and NASA's 'Sally Ride study' suggest future programs involving returning to the Moon and establishing man's permanent presence there, and/or visiting the planet Mars in both the unmanned and manned mode. Regardless of when and which of these new bold initiatives is selected as our next national space goal, implementing these potentially new national thrusts in space will undoubtedly require the use of both manned and remotely controlled roving vehicles. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to raise the consciousness level of the current space exploration planners to what, in the early 1970s, was a highly successful roving vehicle. During the Apollo program the vehicle known as the Lunar Roving Vehicle (LRV) was designed for carrying two astronauts, their tools, and the equipment needed for rudimentary exploration of the Moon. This paper contains a discussion of the vehicle, its characteristics, and its use on the Moon. Conceivably, the LRV has the potential to meet some future requirements, either with relatively low cost modifications or via an evolutionary route. This aspect, however, is left to those who would choose to further study these options.

A two-dose heterologous prime-boost vaccine regimen eliciting sustained immune responses to Ebola Zaire could support a preventive strategy for future outbreaks.

PubMed

Shukarev, Georgi; Callendret, Benoit; Luhn, Kerstin; Douoguih, Macaya

2017-02-01

The consequences of the 2013-16 Ebola Zaire virus disease epidemic in West Africa were grave. The economies, healthcare systems and communities of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia were devastated by over 18 months of active Ebola virus transmission, followed by sporadic resurgences potentially related to sexual transmission by survivors with viral persistence in body fluids following recovery. The need to develop and implement strategies to prevent and mitigate future outbreaks is now beyond dispute. The potential for unpredictable outbreaks of indeterminate duration, and control challenges posed by the possibility of sporadic re-emergence, mean that implementation of an effective vaccination program for outbreak containment necessitates a vaccine providing durable immunity. Heterologous prime-boost vaccine regimens deliver the same or similar antigens through different vaccine types, the first to prime and the second to boost the immune system. Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo is an investigational Ebola Zaire vaccine regimen that uses this heterologous prime-boost approach. Preliminary Phase 1 data suggest that Ad26.ZEBOV/MVA-BN-Filo confers durable immunity for at least 240 d and is well-tolerated with a good safety profile. This regimen may therefore be suitable for prophylactic use in a regional or targeted population vaccination strategy, and could potentially aid prevention and control of future Ebola outbreaks.

Lifelong Bilingualism and Neural Reserve against Alzheimer’s disease: A Review of Findings and Potential Mechanisms

PubMed Central

Gold, Brian T.

2014-01-01

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a progressive brain disorder that initially affects medial temporal lobe circuitry and memory functions. Current drug treatments have only modest effects on the symptomatic course of the disease. In contrast, a growing body of evidence suggests that lifelong bilingualism may delay the onset of clinical AD symptoms by several years. The purpose of the present review is to summarize evidence for bilingualism as a reserve variable against AD and discuss potential underlying neurocognitive mechanisms. Evidence is reviewed suggesting that bilingualism may delay clinical AD symptoms by protecting frontostriatal and frontoparietal executive control circuitry rather than medial temporal lobe memory circuitry. Cellular and molecular mechanisms that may contribute to bilingual cognitive reserve effects are discussed, including those that may affect neuronal metabolic functions, dynamic neuronal-glial interactions, vascular factors, myelin structure and neurochemical signaling. Future studies that may test some of these potential mechanisms of bilingual CR effects are proposed. PMID:25496781

Lifelong bilingualism and neural reserve against Alzheimer's disease: a review of findings and potential mechanisms.

PubMed

Gold, Brian T

2015-03-15

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive brain disorder that initially affects medial temporal lobe circuitry and memory functions. Current drug treatments have only modest effects on the symptomatic course of the disease. In contrast, a growing body of evidence suggests that lifelong bilingualism may delay the onset of clinical AD symptoms by several years. The purpose of the present review is to summarize evidence for bilingualism as a reserve variable against AD and discuss potential underlying neurocognitive mechanisms. Evidence is reviewed suggesting that bilingualism may delay clinical AD symptoms by protecting frontostriatal and frontoparietal executive control circuitry rather than medial temporal lobe memory circuitry. Cellular and molecular mechanisms that may contribute to bilingual cognitive reserve effects are discussed, including those that may affect neuronal metabolic functions, dynamic neuronal-glial interactions, vascular factors, myelin structure and neurochemical signaling. Future studies that may test some of these potential mechanisms of bilingual CR effects are proposed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Novel Biomarker Candidates for Colorectal Cancer Metastasis: A Meta-analysis of In Vitro Studies

PubMed Central

Long, Nguyen Phuoc; Lee, Wun Jun; Huy, Nguyen Truong; Lee, Seul Ji; Park, Jeong Hill; Kwon, Sung Won

2016-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common and lethal cancers. Although numerous studies have evaluated potential biomarkers for early diagnosis, current biomarkers have failed to reach an acceptable level of accuracy for distant metastasis. In this paper, we performed a gene set meta-analysis of in vitro microarray studies and combined the results from this study with previously published proteomic data to validate and suggest prognostic candidates for CRC metastasis. Two microarray data sets included found 21 significant genes. Of these significant genes, ALDOA, IL8 (CXCL8), and PARP4 had strong potential as prognostic candidates. LAMB2, MCM7, CXCL23A, SERPINA3, ABCA3, ALDH3A2, and POLR2I also have potential. Other candidates were more controversial, possibly because of the biologic heterogeneity of tumor cells, which is a major obstacle to predicting metastasis. In conclusion, we demonstrated a meta-analysis approach and successfully suggested ten biomarker candidates for future investigation. PMID:27688707

Novel Biomarker Candidates for Colorectal Cancer Metastasis: A Meta-analysis of In Vitro Studies.

PubMed

Long, Nguyen Phuoc; Lee, Wun Jun; Huy, Nguyen Truong; Lee, Seul Ji; Park, Jeong Hill; Kwon, Sung Won

2016-01-01

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is one of the most common and lethal cancers. Although numerous studies have evaluated potential biomarkers for early diagnosis, current biomarkers have failed to reach an acceptable level of accuracy for distant metastasis. In this paper, we performed a gene set meta-analysis of in vitro microarray studies and combined the results from this study with previously published proteomic data to validate and suggest prognostic candidates for CRC metastasis. Two microarray data sets included found 21 significant genes. Of these significant genes, ALDOA, IL8 (CXCL8), and PARP4 had strong potential as prognostic candidates. LAMB2, MCM7, CXCL23A, SERPINA3, ABCA3, ALDH3A2, and POLR2I also have potential. Other candidates were more controversial, possibly because of the biologic heterogeneity of tumor cells, which is a major obstacle to predicting metastasis. In conclusion, we demonstrated a meta-analysis approach and successfully suggested ten biomarker candidates for future investigation.

Role of Inflammation in Human Fatigue: Relevance of Multidimensional Assessments and Potential Neuronal Mechanisms

PubMed Central

Karshikoff, Bianka; Sundelin, Tina; Lasselin, Julie

2017-01-01

Fatigue is a highly disabling symptom in various medical conditions. While inflammation has been suggested as a potential contributor to the development of fatigue, underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. In this review, we propose that a better assessment of central fatigue, taking into account its multidimensional features, could help elucidate the role and mechanisms of inflammation in fatigue development. A description of the features of central fatigue is provided, and the current evidence describing the association between inflammation and fatigue in various medical conditions is reviewed. Additionally, the effect of inflammation on specific neuronal processes that may be involved in distinct fatigue dimensions is described. We suggest that the multidimensional aspects of fatigue should be assessed in future studies of inflammation-induced fatigue and that this would benefit the development of effective therapeutic interventions. PMID:28163706

Convergence of potential net ecosystem production among contrasting C3 grasslands

PubMed Central

Peichl, Matthias; Sonnentag, Oliver; Wohlfahrt, Georg; Flanagan, Lawrence B.; Baldocchi, Dennis D.; Kiely, Gerard; Galvagno, Marta; Gianelle, Damiano; Marcolla, Barbara; Pio, Casimiro; Migliavacca, Mirco; Jones, Michael B.; Saunders, Matthew

2013-01-01

Metabolic theory and body size dependent constraints on biomass production and decomposition suggest that differences in the intrinsic potential net ecosystem production (NEPPOT) should be small among contrasting C3 grasslands and therefore unable to explain the wide range in the annual apparent net ecosystem production (NEPAPP) reported by previous studies. We estimated NEPPOT for nine C3 grasslands under contrasting climate and management regimes using multi-year eddy covariance data. NEPPOT converged within a narrow range suggesting little difference in the net carbon dioxide uptake capacity across C3 grasslands. Our results indicate a unique feature of C3 grasslands compared to other terrestrial ecosystems and suggest a state of stability in NEPPOT due to tightly coupled production and respiration processes. Consequently, the annual NEPAPP of C3 grasslands is primarily a function of seasonal and short-term environmental and management constraints, and therefore especially susceptible to changes in future climate patterns and associated adaptation of management practices. PMID:23346985

Genomic evidence for plant-parasitic nematodes as the earliest Wolbachia hosts

PubMed Central

Brown, Amanda M. V.; Wasala, Sulochana K.; Howe, Dana K.; Peetz, Amy B.; Zasada, Inga A.; Denver, Dee R.

2016-01-01

Wolbachia, one of the most widespread endosymbionts, is a target for biological control of mosquito-borne diseases (malaria and dengue virus), and antibiotic elimination of infectious filarial nematodes. We sequenced and analyzed the genome of a new Wolbachia strain (wPpe) in the plant-parasitic nematode Pratylenchus penetrans. Phylogenomic analyses placed wPpe as the earliest diverging Wolbachia, suggesting two evolutionary invasions into nematodes. The next branches comprised strains in sap-feeding insects, suggesting Wolbachia may have first evolved as a nutritional mutualist. Genome size, protein content, %GC, and repetitive DNA allied wPpe with mutualistic Wolbachia, whereas gene repertoire analyses placed it between parasite (A, B) and mutualist (C, D, F) groups. Conservation of iron metabolism genes across Wolbachia suggests iron homeostasis as a potential factor in its success. This study enhances our understanding of this globally pandemic endosymbiont, highlighting genetic patterns associated with host changes. Combined with future work on this strain, these genomic data could help provide potential new targets for plant-parasitic nematode control. PMID:27734894

Electronic zero-point fluctuation forces inside circuit components

PubMed Central

Leonhardt, Ulf

2018-01-01

One of the most intriguing manifestations of quantum zero-point fluctuations are the van der Waals and Casimir forces, often associated with vacuum fluctuations of the electromagnetic field. We study generalized fluctuation potentials acting on internal degrees of freedom of components in electrical circuits. These electronic Casimir-like potentials are induced by the zero-point current fluctuations of any general conductive circuit. For realistic examples of an electromechanical capacitor and a superconducting qubit, our results reveal the possibility of tunable forces between the capacitor plates, or the level shifts of the qubit, respectively. Our analysis suggests an alternative route toward the exploration of Casimir-like fluctuation potentials, namely, by characterizing and measuring them as a function of parameters of the environment. These tunable potentials may be useful for future nanoelectromechanical and quantum technologies. PMID:29719863

Affordances of Augmented Reality in Science Learning: Suggestions for Future Research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cheng, Kun-Hung; Tsai, Chin-Chung

2013-08-01

Augmented reality (AR) is currently considered as having potential for pedagogical applications. However, in science education, research regarding AR-aided learning is in its infancy. To understand how AR could help science learning, this review paper firstly has identified two major approaches of utilizing AR technology in science education, which are named as image- based AR and location- based AR. These approaches may result in different affordances for science learning. It is then found that students' spatial ability, practical skills, and conceptual understanding are often afforded by image-based AR and location-based AR usually supports inquiry-based scientific activities. After examining what has been done in science learning with AR supports, several suggestions for future research are proposed. For example, more research is required to explore learning experience (e.g., motivation or cognitive load) and learner characteristics (e.g., spatial ability or perceived presence) involved in AR. Mixed methods of investigating learning process (e.g., a content analysis and a sequential analysis) and in-depth examination of user experience beyond usability (e.g., affective variables of esthetic pleasure or emotional fulfillment) should be considered. Combining image-based and location-based AR technology may bring new possibility for supporting science learning. Theories including mental models, spatial cognition, situated cognition, and social constructivist learning are suggested for the profitable uses of future AR research in science education.

Update on mesenchymal stem cell therapies for cartilage disorders

PubMed Central

Paschos, Nikolaos K; Sennett, Mackenzie L

2017-01-01

Cartilage disorders, including focal cartilage lesions, are among the most common clinical problems in orthopedic practice. Left untreated, large focal lesions may result in progression to osteoarthritis, with tremendous impact on the quality of life of affected individuals. Current management strategies have shown only a modest degree of success, while several upcoming interventions signify better outcomes in the future. Among these, stem cell therapies have been suggested as a promising new era for cartilage disorders. Certain characteristics of the stem cells, such as their potential to differentiate but also to support healing made them a fruitful candidate for lesions in cartilage, a tissue with poor healing capacity. The aim of this editorial is to provide an update on the recent advancements in the field of stem cell therapy for the management of focal cartilage defects. Our goal is to present recent basic science advances and to present the potential of the use of stem cells in novel clinical interventions towards enhancement of the treatment armamentarium for cartilage lesions. Furthermore, we highlight some thoughts for the future of cartilage regeneration and repair and to explore future perspectives for the next steps in the field. PMID:29312843

Human Research Program Human Health Countermeasures Element Nutrition Risk Standing Review Panel

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Bistrian, Bruce

2009-01-01

The Nutrition Risk Standing Review Panel (SRP) reviewed and discussed the specific gaps and tasks for the Human Health Countermeasures (HHC) Element related to nutrition identified in the Human Research Program (HRP) Integrated Research Plan. There was general consensus that the described gaps and proposed tasks were critical to future NASA mission success. The SRP acknowledged the high scientific quality of the work currently being undertaken by the Nutritional Biochemistry group under the direction of Dr. Scott Smith. In review of the entire HRP, four new gaps were identified that complement the Element's existing research activities. Given the limitations of ground-based analogs for many of the unique physiological and metabolic alterations in space, future studies are needed to quantify nutritional factors that change during actual space flight. In addition, future tasks should seek to better evaluate the time course of physiological and metabolic alterations during flight to better predict alterations during longer duration missions. Finally, given the recent data suggesting a potential role for increased inflammatory responses during space flight, the role of inflammation needs to be explored in detail, including the development of potential countermeasures and new ground based analogs, if this possibility is confirmed.

Eruptive history of the Dieng Mountains region, central Java, and potential hazards from future eruptions

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miller, C. Dan; Sushyar, R.; ,; Hamidi, S.

1983-01-01

The Dieng Mountains region consists of a complex of late Quaternary to recent volcanic stratocones, parasitic vents, and explosion craters. Six age groups of volcanic centers, eruptive products, and explosion craters are recognized in the region based on their morphology, degree of dissection, stratigraphic relationships, and degree of weathering. These features range in age from tens of thousands of years to events that have occurred this century. No magmatic eruptions have occurred in the Dieng Mountains region for at least several thousand years; volcanic activity during this time interval has consisted of phreatic eruptions and non-explosive hydrothermal activity. If future volcanic events are similar to those of the last few thousand years, they will consist of phreatic eruptions, associated small hot mudflows, emission of suffocating gases, and hydrothermal activity. Future phreatic eruptions may follow, or accompany, periods of increased earthquake activity; the epicenters for the seismicity may suggest where eruptive activity will occur. Under such circumstances, the populace within several kilometers of a potential eruption site should be warned of a possible eruption, given instructions about what to do in the event of an eruption, or temporarily evacuated to a safer location.

Marine Transportation System Performance Measures Research

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-06-01

A. Protopapas, D. Bierling, L. E . Olson, B. Wang, and M. Khodakarami. 2014. Integrating MTS commerce data with multimodal freight transportation...suggests using ob- served data to develop models that explore a wide range of future scenar- ios and provide insight into potential effects on MTS...sources were the FT920 – U.S. Merchandise Trade: Selected Highlights (for total, water and air data , published by U.S. Department of Commerce , U.S

When Gifted Kids Don't Have All the Answers: How to Meet Their Social and Emotional Needs. Revised and Updated Edition

ERIC Educational Resources Information Center

Galbraith, Judy; Delisle, Jim

2015-01-01

Gifted kids are so much more than test scores and grades. Still, it's sometimes difficult to see past the potential to the child who may be anxious, lonely, confused, or unsure of what the future might bring. This book, now fully revised with updated information and new survey quotes, offers practical suggestions for addressing the social and…

Periodical cicadas use light for oviposition site selection.

PubMed

Yang, Louie H

2006-12-07

Organisms use incomplete information from local experience to assess the suitability of potential habitat sites over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Although ecologists have long recognized the importance of spatial scales in habitat selection, few studies have investigated the temporal scales of habitat selection. In particular, cues in the immediate environment may commonly provide indirect information about future habitat quality. In periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.), oviposition site selection represents a very long-term habitat choice. Adult female cicadas insert eggs into tree branches during a few weeks in the summer of emergence, but their oviposition choices determine the underground habitats of root-feeding nymphs over the following 13 or 17 years. Here, field experiments are used to show that female cicadas use the local light environment of host trees during the summer of emergence to select long-term host trees. Light environments may also influence oviposition microsite selection within hosts, suggesting a potential behavioural mechanism for associating solar cues with host trees. In contrast, experimental nutrient enrichment of host trees did not influence cicada oviposition densities. These findings suggest that the light environments around host trees may provide a robust predictor of host tree quality in the near future. This habitat selection may influence the spatial distribution of several cicada-mediated ecological processes in eastern North American forests.

Periodical cicadas use light for oviposition site selection

PubMed Central

Yang, Louie H

2006-01-01

Organisms use incomplete information from local experience to assess the suitability of potential habitat sites over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. Although ecologists have long recognized the importance of spatial scales in habitat selection, few studies have investigated the temporal scales of habitat selection. In particular, cues in the immediate environment may commonly provide indirect information about future habitat quality. In periodical cicadas (Magicicada spp.), oviposition site selection represents a very long-term habitat choice. Adult female cicadas insert eggs into tree branches during a few weeks in the summer of emergence, but their oviposition choices determine the underground habitats of root-feeding nymphs over the following 13 or 17 years. Here, field experiments are used to show that female cicadas use the local light environment of host trees during the summer of emergence to select long-term host trees. Light environments may also influence oviposition microsite selection within hosts, suggesting a potential behavioural mechanism for associating solar cues with host trees. In contrast, experimental nutrient enrichment of host trees did not influence cicada oviposition densities. These findings suggest that the light environments around host trees may provide a robust predictor of host tree quality in the near future. This habitat selection may influence the spatial distribution of several cicada-mediated ecological processes in eastern North American forests. PMID:17015354

Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

DOE PAGES

Wiser, Ryan; Jenni, Karen; Seel, Joachim; ...

2016-09-12

Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends - in part - on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. In this paper, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions bymore » 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R & D and industry strategy.« less

Grade-Level Differences in Future-Oriented Self-Concept During Early Adolescence: Potential Relevance to School Nursing

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

The middle school and early high school years are a time of significant development, including an increasing ability to envision oneself in the future. Little is known about how adolescents’ future-oriented self-concept (i.e., possible selves) differs across grade levels, although this knowledge may aid in establishing rapport with students and building effective health-promotion and risk reduction interventions. Therefore, this study explored grade-level differences in hoped for and feared possible selves in a sample of 6th – 9th grade students (n = 2,498; Mage = 12.72, SD = 1.15; 51.3% female). Findings suggest that adolescents list a variety of possible selves, and the content differs according to grade-level. These findings offer helpful insight for intervention work aimed at improving student outcomes and preventing risk behavior. Understanding what adolescents hope and fear for themselves in the future may be particularly beneficial for school nurses in identifying the unique challenges students experience and tailoring health-promotion efforts. PMID:27222444

Grade-Level Differences in Future-Oriented Self-Concept During Early Adolescence: Potential Relevance to School Nursing.

PubMed

Stoddard, Sarah A; Pierce, Jennifer; Schmidt, Carissa J

2016-12-01

The middle school and early high school years are a time of significant development, including an increasing ability to envision oneself in the future. Little is known about how adolescents' future-oriented self-concept (i.e., possible selves) differs across grade levels, although this knowledge may aid in establishing rapport with students and building effective health promotion and risk reduction interventions. Therefore, this study explored grade-level differences in hoped for and feared possible selves in a sample of sixth- to ninth-grade students (n = 2,498; M age = 12.72, SD = 1.15; 51.3% female). Findings suggest that adolescents list a variety of possible selves, and the content differs according to grade level. These findings offer helpful insight for intervention work aimed at improving student outcomes and preventing risk behavior. Understanding what adolescents hope and fear for themselves in the future may be particularly beneficial for school nurses in identifying the unique challenges students experience and tailoring health promotion efforts. © The Author(s) 2016.

Automatic optimism: the affective basis of judgments about the likelihood of future events.

PubMed

Lench, Heather C

2009-05-01

People generally judge that the future will be consistent with their desires, but the reason for this desirability bias is unclear. This investigation examined whether affective reactions associated with future events are the mechanism through which desires influence likelihood judgments. In 4 studies, affective reactions were manipulated for initially neutral events. Compared with a neutral condition, events associated with positive reactions were judged as likely to occur, and events associated with negative reactions were judged as unlikely to occur. Desirability biases were reduced when participants could misattribute affective reactions to a source other than future events, and the relationship between affective reactions and judgments was influenced when approach and avoidance motivations were independently manipulated. Together, these findings demonstrate that positive and negative affective reactions to potential events cause the desirability bias in likelihood judgments and suggest that this effect occurs because of a tendency to approach positive possibilities and avoid negative possibilities. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Water treatment by new-generation graphene materials: hope for bright future.

PubMed

Ali, Imran; Alharbi, Omar M L; Tkachev, Alexey; Galunin, Evgeny; Burakov, Alexander; Grachev, Vladimir A

2018-03-01

Water is the most important and essential component of earth's ecosystem playing a vital role in the proper functioning of flora and fauna. But, our water resources are contaminating continuously. The whole world may be in great water scarcity after few decades. Graphene, a single-atom thick carbon nanosheet, and graphene nanomaterials have bright future in water treatment technologies due to their extraordinary properties. Only few papers describe the use of these materials in water treatment by adsorption, filtration, and photodegradation methods. This article presents a critical evaluation of the contribution of graphene nanomaterials in water treatment. Attempts have been made to discuss the future perspectives of these materials in water treatment. Besides, the efforts are made to discuss the nanotoxicity and hazards of graphene-based materials. The suggestions are given to explore the full potential of these materials along with precautions of nanotoxicity and its hazards. It was concluded that the future of graphene-based materials is quite bright.

Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Jenni, Karen; Seel, Joachim

Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends -- in part -- on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. Here, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions by 2030 andmore » 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R&D and industry strategy.« less

Expert elicitation survey on future wind energy costs

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wiser, Ryan; Jenni, Karen; Seel, Joachim

Wind energy supply has grown rapidly over the last decade. However, the long-term contribution of wind to future energy supply, and the degree to which policy support is necessary to motivate higher levels of deployment, depends - in part - on the future costs of both onshore and offshore wind. In this paper, we summarize the results of an expert elicitation survey of 163 of the world's foremost wind experts, aimed at better understanding future costs and technology advancement possibilities. Results suggest significant opportunities for cost reductions, but also underlying uncertainties. Under the median scenario, experts anticipate 24-30% reductions bymore » 2030 and 35-41% reductions by 2050 across the three wind applications studied. Costs could be even lower: experts predict a 10% chance that reductions will be more than 40% by 2030 and more than 50% by 2050. Insights gained through expert elicitation complement other tools for evaluating cost-reduction potential, and help inform policy and planning, R & D and industry strategy.« less

Functional Group, Biomass, and Climate Change Effects on Ecological Drought in Semiarid Grasslands

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, S. D.; Schlaepfer, D. R.; Bradford, J. B.; Lauenroth, W. K.; Duniway, M. C.; Hall, S. A.; Jamiyansharav, K.; Jia, G.; Lkhagva, A.; Munson, S. M.; Pyke, D. A.; Tietjen, B.

2018-03-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses and shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake, and transpiration. We modeled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30 year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site-determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally increased biomass (i.e., the effects of invasions that increase community biomass or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought in both current and future climates.

Functional group, biomass, and climate change effects on ecological drought in semiarid grasslands

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Scott D.; Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Bradford, John B.; Lauenroth, William K.; Duniway, Michael C.; Hall, Sonia A.; Jamiyansharav, Khishigbayar; Jia, Gensuo; Lkhagva, Ariuntsetseg; Munson, Seth M.; Pyke, David A.; Tietjen, Britta

2018-01-01

Water relations in plant communities are influenced both by contrasting functional groups (grasses, shrubs) and by climate change via complex effects on interception, uptake and transpiration. We modelled the effects of functional group replacement and biomass increase, both of which can be outcomes of invasion and vegetation management, and climate change on ecological drought (soil water potential below which photosynthesis stops) in 340 semiarid grassland sites over 30‐year periods. Relative to control vegetation (climate and site‐determined mixes of functional groups), the frequency and duration of drought were increased by shrubs and decreased by annual grasses. The rankings of shrubs, control vegetation, and annual grasses in terms of drought effects were generally consistent in current and future climates, suggesting that current differences among functional groups on drought effects predict future differences. Climate change accompanied by experimentally‐increased biomass (i.e. the effects of invasions that increase community biomass, or management that increases productivity through fertilization or respite from grazing) increased drought frequency and duration, and advanced drought onset. Our results suggest that the replacement of perennial temperate semiarid grasslands by shrubs, or increased biomass, can increase ecological drought both in current and future climates.

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada’s boreal forest

PubMed Central

Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R.; Price, David T.; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as “drivers of change”) were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts. PMID:29414989

Harvesting interacts with climate change to affect future habitat quality of a focal species in eastern Canada's boreal forest.

PubMed

Tremblay, Junior A; Boulanger, Yan; Cyr, Dominic; Taylor, Anthony R; Price, David T; St-Laurent, Martin-Hugues

2018-01-01

Many studies project future bird ranges by relying on correlative species distribution models. Such models do not usually represent important processes explicitly related to climate change and harvesting, which limits their potential for predicting and understanding the future of boreal bird assemblages at the landscape scale. In this study, we attempted to assess the cumulative and specific impacts of both harvesting and climate-induced changes on wildfires and stand-level processes (e.g., reproduction, growth) in the boreal forest of eastern Canada. The projected changes in these landscape- and stand-scale processes (referred to as "drivers of change") were then assessed for their impacts on future habitats and potential productivity of black-backed woodpecker (BBWO; Picoides arcticus), a focal species representative of deadwood and old-growth biodiversity in eastern Canada. Forest attributes were simulated using a forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, and were used to infer future landscape suitability to BBWO under three anthropogenic climate forcing scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), compared to the historical baseline. We found climate change is likely to be detrimental for BBWO, with up to 92% decline in potential productivity under the worst-case climate forcing scenario (RCP 8.5). However, large declines were also projected under baseline climate, underlining the importance of harvest in determining future BBWO productivity. Present-day harvesting practices were the single most important cause of declining areas of old-growth coniferous forest, and hence appeared as the single most important driver of future BBWO productivity, regardless of the climate scenario. Climate-induced increases in fire activity would further promote young, deciduous stands at the expense of old-growth coniferous stands. This suggests that the biodiversity associated with deadwood and old-growth boreal forests may be greatly altered by the cumulative impacts of natural and anthropogenic disturbances under a changing climate. Management adaptations, including reduced harvesting levels and strategies to promote coniferous species content, may help mitigate these cumulative impacts.

What is "neuromarketing"? A discussion and agenda for future research.

PubMed

Lee, Nick; Broderick, Amanda J; Chamberlain, Laura

2007-02-01

Recent years have seen advances in neuroimaging to such an extent that neuroscientists are able to directly study the frequency, location, and timing of neuronal activity to an unprecedented degree. However, marketing science has remained largely unaware of such advances and their huge potential. In fact, the application of neuroimaging to market research--what has come to be called "neuromarketing"--has caused considerable controversy within neuroscience circles in recent times. This paper is an attempt to widen the scope of neuromarketing beyond commercial brand and consumer behaviour applications, to include a wider conceptualisation of marketing science. Drawing from general neuroscience and neuroeconomics, neuromarketing as a field of study is defined, and some future research directions are suggested.

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE PAGES

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

2016-01-01

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Eum, Hyung-Il; Gachon, Philippe; Laprise, René

This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affectedmore » by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.« less

Moderators of wellbeing interventions: Why do some people respond more positively than others?

PubMed Central

Nelson-Coffey, S. Katherine; Layous, Kristin; Jacobs Bao, Katherine; Davis, Oliver S. P.; Haworth, Claire M. A.

2017-01-01

Interventions rarely have a universal effect on all individuals. Reasons ranging from participant characteristics, context and fidelity of intervention completion could cause some people to respond more positively than others. Understanding these individual differences in intervention response may provide clues to the mechanisms behind the intervention, as well as inform future designs to make interventions maximally beneficial for all. Here we focus on an intervention designed to improve adolescent wellbeing, and explore potential moderators using a representative and well-powered sample. 16-year old participants (N = 932) in the Twins Wellbeing Intervention Study logged online once a week to complete control and wellbeing-enhancing activities consecutively. Throughout the study participants also provided information about a range of potential moderators of intervention response including demographics, seasonality, personality, baseline characteristics, activity fit, and effort. As expected, some individuals gained more from the intervention than others; we used multi-level modelling to test for moderation effects that could explain these individual differences. Of the 15 moderators tested, none significantly explained individual differences in intervention response in the intervention and follow-up phases. Self-reported effort and baseline positive affect had a notable effect in moderating response in the control phase, during which there was no overall improvement in wellbeing and mental health. Our results did not replicate the moderation effects that have been suggested by previous literature and future work needs to reconcile these differences. They also show that factors that have previously been shown to influence baseline wellbeing do not also influence an individual’s ability to benefit from a wellbeing intervention. Although future research should continue to explore potential moderators of intervention efficacy, our results suggest that the beneficial effect of positive activities in adolescents were universal across such factors as sex and socioeconomic status, bolstering claims of the scalability of positive activities to increase adolescent wellbeing. PMID:29107994

Moderators of wellbeing interventions: Why do some people respond more positively than others?

PubMed

Wang, R Adele H; Nelson-Coffey, S Katherine; Layous, Kristin; Jacobs Bao, Katherine; Davis, Oliver S P; Haworth, Claire M A

2017-01-01

Interventions rarely have a universal effect on all individuals. Reasons ranging from participant characteristics, context and fidelity of intervention completion could cause some people to respond more positively than others. Understanding these individual differences in intervention response may provide clues to the mechanisms behind the intervention, as well as inform future designs to make interventions maximally beneficial for all. Here we focus on an intervention designed to improve adolescent wellbeing, and explore potential moderators using a representative and well-powered sample. 16-year old participants (N = 932) in the Twins Wellbeing Intervention Study logged online once a week to complete control and wellbeing-enhancing activities consecutively. Throughout the study participants also provided information about a range of potential moderators of intervention response including demographics, seasonality, personality, baseline characteristics, activity fit, and effort. As expected, some individuals gained more from the intervention than others; we used multi-level modelling to test for moderation effects that could explain these individual differences. Of the 15 moderators tested, none significantly explained individual differences in intervention response in the intervention and follow-up phases. Self-reported effort and baseline positive affect had a notable effect in moderating response in the control phase, during which there was no overall improvement in wellbeing and mental health. Our results did not replicate the moderation effects that have been suggested by previous literature and future work needs to reconcile these differences. They also show that factors that have previously been shown to influence baseline wellbeing do not also influence an individual's ability to benefit from a wellbeing intervention. Although future research should continue to explore potential moderators of intervention efficacy, our results suggest that the beneficial effect of positive activities in adolescents were universal across such factors as sex and socioeconomic status, bolstering claims of the scalability of positive activities to increase adolescent wellbeing.

Declining Prevalence of Disease Vectors Under Climate Change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Escobar, Luis E.; Romero-Alvarez, Daniel; Leon, Renato; Lepe-Lopez, Manuel A.; Craft, Meggan E.; Borbor-Cordova, Mercy J.; Svenning, Jens-Christian

2016-12-01

More than half of the world population is at risk of vector-borne diseases including dengue fever, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever, leishmaniasis, chagas disease, and malaria, with highest incidences in tropical regions. In Ecuador, vector-borne diseases are present from coastal and Amazonian regions to the Andes Mountains; however, a detailed characterization of the distribution of their vectors has never been carried out. We estimate the distribution of 14 vectors of the above vector-borne diseases under present-day and future climates. Our results consistently suggest that climate warming is likely threatening some vector species with extinction, locally or completely. These results suggest that climate change could reduce the burden of specific vector species. Other vector species are likely to shift and constrain their geographic range to the highlands in Ecuador potentially affecting novel areas and populations. These forecasts show the need for development of early prevention strategies for vector species currently absent in areas projected as suitable under future climate conditions. Informed interventions could reduce the risk of human exposure to vector species with distributional shifts, in response to current and future climate changes. Based on the mixed effects of future climate on human exposure to disease vectors, we argue that research on vector-borne diseases should be cross-scale and include climatic, demographic, and landscape factors, as well as forces facilitating disease transmission at fine scales.

Predicting future thermal habitat suitability of competing native and invasive fish species: from metabolic scope to oceanographic modelling.

PubMed

Marras, Stefano; Cucco, Andrea; Antognarelli, Fabio; Azzurro, Ernesto; Milazzo, Marco; Bariche, Michel; Butenschön, Momme; Kay, Susan; Di Bitetto, Massimiliano; Quattrocchi, Giovanni; Sinerchia, Matteo; Domenici, Paolo

2015-01-01

Global increase in sea temperatures has been suggested to facilitate the incoming and spread of tropical invaders. The increasing success of these species may be related to their higher physiological performance compared with indigenous ones. Here, we determined the effect of temperature on the aerobic metabolic scope (MS) of two herbivorous fish species that occupy a similar ecological niche in the Mediterranean Sea: the native salema (Sarpa salpa) and the invasive marbled spinefoot (Siganus rivulatus). Our results demonstrate a large difference in the optimal temperature for aerobic scope between the salema (21.8°C) and the marbled spinefoot (29.1°C), highlighting the importance of temperature in determining the energy availability and, potentially, the distribution patterns of the two species. A modelling approach based on a present-day projection and a future scenario for oceanographic conditions was used to make predictions about the thermal habitat suitability (THS, an index based on the relationship between MS and temperature) of the two species, both at the basin level (the whole Mediterranean Sea) and at the regional level (the Sicilian Channel, a key area for the inflow of invasive species from the Eastern to the Western Mediterranean Sea). For the present-day projection, our basin-scale model shows higher THS of the marbled spinefoot than the salema in the Eastern compared with the Western Mediterranean Sea. However, by 2050, the THS of the marbled spinefoot is predicted to increase throughout the whole Mediterranean Sea, causing its westward expansion. Nevertheless, the regional-scale model suggests that the future thermal conditions of Western Sicily will remain relatively unsuitable for the invasive species and could act as a barrier for its spread westward. We suggest that metabolic scope can be used as a tool to evaluate the potential invasiveness of alien species and the resilience to global warming of native species.

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess thesustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in theGreater Platte River Basin

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.; Boyte, Stephen; Phuyal, Khem P.

2014-01-01

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha−1 year−1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha−1 year−1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha−1 year−1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Air cushion landing gear applications study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Earl, T. D.

1979-01-01

A series of air cushion landing gear (ACLG) applications was studied and potential benefits analyzed in order to identify the most attractive of these. The selected applications are new integrated designs (not retrofits) and employ a modified design approach with improved characteristics and performance. To aid the study, a survey of potential users was made. Applications were evaluated in the light of comments received. A technology scenario is developed, with discussion of problem areas, current technology level and future needs. Feasible development timetables are suggested. It is concluded that near-term development of small-size ACLG trunks, exploration of flight effects and braking are key items. The most attractive applications are amphibious with very large cargo aircraft and small general aviation having the greatest potential.

Gambling Disorder in Veterans: A Review of the Literature and Implications for Future Research.

PubMed

Levy, Lauren; Tracy, J Kathleen

2018-02-09

To review the scientific literature examining gambling behavior in military veterans in order to summarize factors associated with gambling behavior in this population. Database searches were employed to identify articles specifically examining gambling behavior in military veterans. Cumulative search results identified 52 articles (1983-2017) examining gambling behavior in veteran populations. Articles generally fell into one or more of the following categories: prevalence, psychological profiles and psychiatric comorbidities, treatment evaluations, measurement, and genetic contributions to gambling disorder. Results from reviewed articles are presented and implications for future research discussed. Research to date has provided an excellent foundation to inform potential screening, intervention and research activities going forward. The authors suggest that a public health approach to future research endeavors would strengthen the evidence base regarding gambling in veteran populations and better inform strategies for screening, prevention and treatment.

Climate Change Impacts on Waterborne Diseases: Moving Toward Designing Interventions.

PubMed

Levy, Karen; Smith, Shanon M; Carlton, Elizabeth J

2018-06-01

Climate change threatens progress achieved in global reductions of infectious disease rates over recent decades. This review summarizes literature on potential impacts of climate change on waterborne diseases, organized around a framework of questions that can be addressed depending on available data. A growing body of evidence suggests that climate change may alter the incidence of waterborne diseases, and diarrheal diseases in particular. Much of the existing work examines historical relationships between weather and diarrhea incidence, with a limited number of studies projecting future disease rates. Some studies take social and ecological factors into account in considerations of historical relationships, but few have done so in projecting future conditions. The field is at a point of transition, toward incorporating social and ecological factors into understanding the relationships between climatic factors and diarrheal diseases and using this information for future projections. The integration of these components helps identify vulnerable populations and prioritize adaptation strategies.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum.

PubMed

Ineson, Sarah; Maycock, Amanda C; Gray, Lesley J; Scaife, Adam A; Dunstone, Nick J; Harder, Jerald W; Knight, Jeff R; Lockwood, Mike; Manners, James C; Wood, Richard A

2015-06-23

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Family-focused autism spectrum disorder research: a review of the utility of family systems approaches.

PubMed

Cridland, Elizabeth K; Jones, Sandra C; Magee, Christopher A; Caputi, Peter

2014-04-01

A family member with an autism spectrum disorder presents pervasive and bidirectional influences on the entire family system, suggesting a need for family-focused autism spectrum disorder research. While there has been increasing interest in this research area, family-focused autism spectrum disorder research can still be considered relatively recent, and there are limitations to the existing literature. The purpose of this article is to provide theoretical and methodological directions for future family-focused autism spectrum disorder research. In particular, this article proposes Family Systems approaches as a common theoretical framework for future family-focused autism spectrum disorder research by considering theoretical concepts such as Boundaries, Ambiguous Loss, Resilience and Traumatic Growth. We discuss reasons why these concepts are important to researching families living with autism spectrum disorder and provide recommendations for future research. The potential for research grounded in Family Systems approaches to influence clinical support services is also discussed.

Error detection and response adjustment in youth with mild spastic cerebral palsy: an event-related brain potential study.

PubMed

Hakkarainen, Elina; Pirilä, Silja; Kaartinen, Jukka; van der Meere, Jaap J

2013-06-01

This study evaluated the brain activation state during error making in youth with mild spastic cerebral palsy and a peer control group while carrying out a stimulus recognition task. The key question was whether patients were detecting their own errors and subsequently improving their performance in a future trial. Findings indicated that error responses of the group with cerebral palsy were associated with weak motor preparation, as indexed by the amplitude of the late contingent negative variation. However, patients were detecting their errors as indexed by the amplitude of the response-locked negativity and thus improved their performance in a future trial. Findings suggest that the consequence of error making on future performance is intact in a sample of youth with mild spastic cerebral palsy. Because the study group is small, the present findings need replication using a larger sample.

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis.

PubMed

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-06-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals' time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying "I don't know" item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research.

Relationship between Future Time Orientation and Item Nonresponse on Subjective Probability Questions: A Cross-Cultural Analysis

PubMed Central

Lee, Sunghee; Liu, Mingnan; Hu, Mengyao

2017-01-01

Time orientation is an unconscious yet fundamental cognitive process that provides a framework for organizing personal experiences in temporal categories of past, present and future, reflecting the relative emphasis given to these categories. Culture lies central to individuals’ time orientation, leading to cultural variations in time orientation. For example, people from future-oriented cultures tend to emphasize the future and store information relevant for the future more than those from present- or past-oriented cultures. For survey questions that ask respondents to report expected probabilities of future events, this may translate into culture-specific question difficulties, manifested through systematically varying “I don’t know” item nonresponse rates. This study drew on the time orientation theory and examined culture-specific nonresponse patterns on subjective probability questions using methodologically comparable population-based surveys from multiple countries. The results supported our hypothesis. Item nonresponse rates on these questions varied significantly in the way that future-orientation at the group as well as individual level was associated with lower nonresponse rates. This pattern did not apply to non-probability questions. Our study also suggested potential nonresponse bias. Examining culture-specific constructs, such as time orientation, as a framework for measurement mechanisms may contribute to improving cross-cultural research. PMID:28781381

Auditory evoked potential measurements in elasmobranchs

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Casper, Brandon; Mann, David

2005-04-01

Auditory evoked potentials (AEP) were first used to examine hearing in elasmobranchs by Corwin and Bullock in the late 1970s and early 1980s, marking the first time AEPs had been measured in fishes. Results of these experiments identified the regions of the ear and brain in which sound is processed, though no actual hearing thresholds were measured. Those initial experiments provided the ground work for future AEP experiments to measure fish hearing abilities in a manner that is much faster and more convenient than classical conditioning. Data will be presented on recent experiments in which AEPs were used to measure the hearing thresholds of two species of elasmobranchs: the nurse shark, Ginglymostoma cirratum, and the yellow stingray, Urobatis jamaicencis. Audiograms were analyzed and compared to previously published audiograms obtained using classical conditioning with results indicating that hearing thresholds were similar for the two methods. These data suggest that AEP testing is a viable option when measuring hearing in elasmobranchs and can increase the speed in which future hearing measurements can be obtained.

Climatic niche of Selinum alatum (Apiaceae, Selineae), a new invasive plant species in Central Europe and its alterations according to the climate change scenarios: Are the European mountains threatened by invasion?

PubMed

Konowalik, Kamil; Proćków, Małgorzata; Proćków, Jarosław

2017-01-01

In recent years, a few established populations of Selinum alatum have been found in the Eastern Carpathians outside its native range that is the Caucasus and the Armenian Highlands. The species is spreading predominantly in Poland where it can outcompete native plants in certain cases. This study addresses a potential climatic niche of the plant with the special aims to illuminate future spreading and indicate areas suitable for invasion. Our results show that the extent of the favourable habitat of the species is broader than currently known. This suggests that the plant has the ability to become a potential new element in some semi-natural or disturbed ecosystems associated with mountainous areas, especially in Central and Southern Europe. Future (2070) models mostly rendered similar suitability maps, but showed slight differences over particular areas and a contraction of suitable habitats, mainly in the northern part of the non-native range.

Forest Attributes from Radar Interferometric Structure and its Fusion with Optical Remote Sensing

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Treuhaft, Robert N.; Law, Beverly E.; Asner, Gregory P.

2004-01-01

The possibility of global, three-dimensional remote sensing of forest structure with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) bears on important forest ecological processes, particularly the carbon cycle. InSAR supplements two-dimensional remote sensing with information in the vertical dimension. Its strengths in potential for global coverage complement those of lidar (light detecting and ranging), which has the potential for high-accuracy vertical profiles over small areas. InSAR derives its sensitivity to forest vertical structure from the differences in signals received by two, spatially separate radar receivers. Estimation of parameters describing vertical structure requires multiple-polarization, multiple-frequency, or multiple-baseline InSAR. Combining InSAR with complementary remote sensing techniques, such as hyperspectral optical imaging and lidar, can enhance vertical-structure estimates and consequent biophysical quantities of importance to ecologists, such as biomass. Future InSAR experiments will supplement recent airborne and spaceborne demonstrations, and together with inputs from ecologists regarding structure, they will suggest designs for future spaceborne strategies for measuring global vegetation structure.

Hair dye use and risk of human cancer

PubMed Central

Zhang, Yawei; Kim, Christopher; Zheng, Tongzhang

2016-01-01

Over 50% of the adult population will use hair dyes at some point in their lifetimes. Hair dyes consist of various chemicals and the composition of these chemicals vary by hair dye types. Chemicals p-phenylenediamine and aminophenyl have been suggested as possible carcinogens or mutagens in experimental studies. The scientific community has been interested in this potential public health impact and the results of published epidemiological studies are summarized here. The current evidence provides limited evidences on the association between personal hair dye use and human cancer risk, except for the possibility of hematopoietic cancers and to a lesser extent, bladder cancer. Risk appears to be affected by time period of use and by specific genetic polymorphisms. Future studies should investigate potential gene and environment interaction to assess possible genetic susceptibility. Several methodological issues should also be considered in future studies including completed hair dye use information such as on timing, duration, frequency and type of hair dye product use. PMID:22201892

Architected squirt-flow materials for energy dissipation

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Cohen, Tal; Kurzeja, Patrick; Bertoldi, Katia

2017-12-01

In the present study we explore material architectures that lead to enhanced dissipation properties by taking advantage of squirt-flow - a local flow mechanism triggered by heterogeneities at the pore level. While squirt-flow is a known dominant source of dissipation and seismic attenuation in fluid saturated geological materials, we study its untapped potential to be incorporated in highly deformable elastic materials with embedded fluid-filled cavities for future engineering applications. An analytical investigation, that isolates the squirt-flow mechanism from other potential dissipation mechanisms and considers an idealized setting, predicts high theoretical levels of dissipation achievable by squirt-flow and establishes a set of guidelines for optimal dissipation design. Particular architectures are then investigated via numerical simulations showing that a careful design of the internal voids can lead to an increase of dissipation levels by an order of magnitude, compared with equivalent homogeneous void distributions. Therefore, we suggest squirt-flow as a promising mechanism to be incorporated in future architected materials to effectively and reversibly dissipate energy.

The cyclical nature of depressed mood and future risk: Depression, rumination, and deficits in emotional clarity in adolescent girls

PubMed Central

Rubenstein, Liza M.; Hamilton, Jessica L.; Stange, Jonathan P.; Flynn, Megan; Abramson, Lyn Y.; Alloy, Lauren B.

2015-01-01

Deficits in emotional clarity, the understanding and awareness of one’s own emotions and the ability to label them appropriately, are associated with increased depressive symptoms. Surprisingly, few studies have examined factors associated with reduction in emotional clarity for adolescents, such as depressed mood and ruminative response styles. The present study examined rumination as a potential mediator of the relationship between depressive symptoms and changes in emotional clarity, focusing on sex differences. Participants included 223 adolescents (51.60% female, Mean age = 12.39). Controlling for baseline levels of emotional clarity, initial depressive symptoms predicted decreases in emotional clarity. Further, rumination prospectively mediated the relationship between baseline depressive symptoms and follow-up emotional clarity for girls, but not boys. Findings suggest that depressive symptoms may increase girls’ tendencies to engage in repetitive, negative thinking, which may reduce the ability to understand and label emotions, a potentially cyclical process that confers vulnerability to future depression. PMID:25931160

Irreversibly increased nitrogen fixation in Trichodesmium experimentally adapted to elevated carbon dioxide

PubMed Central

Hutchins, David A.; Walworth, Nathan G.; Webb, Eric A.; Saito, Mak A.; Moran, Dawn; McIlvin, Matthew R.; Gale, Jasmine; Fu, Fei-Xue

2015-01-01

Nitrogen fixation rates of the globally distributed, biogeochemically important marine cyanobacterium Trichodesmium increase under high carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in short-term studies due to physiological plasticity. However, its long-term adaptive responses to ongoing anthropogenic CO2 increases are unknown. Here we show that experimental evolution under extended selection at projected future elevated CO2 levels results in irreversible, large increases in nitrogen fixation and growth rates, even after being moved back to lower present day CO2 levels for hundreds of generations. This represents an unprecedented microbial evolutionary response, as reproductive fitness increases acquired in the selection environment are maintained after returning to the ancestral environment. Constitutive rate increases are accompanied by irreversible shifts in diel nitrogen fixation patterns, and increased activity of a potentially regulatory DNA methyltransferase enzyme. High CO2-selected cell lines also exhibit increased phosphorus-limited growth rates, suggesting a potential advantage for this keystone organism in a more nutrient-limited, acidified future ocean. PMID:26327191

Antibodies in juvenile-onset myositis.

PubMed

Tansley, Sarah L

2016-11-01

Juvenile-onset myositis is a highly heterogeneous disease. Myositis-specific and associated autoantibodies provide a potential means of subdividing patients into clinically homogenous subgroups. Given the increasing availability of autoantibody testing, this review explores the phenotypes associated with different autoantibodies in juvenile-onset myositis and the potential clinical utility of autoantibody testing. Autoantibodies can be identified in 60-70% of children with myositis and the recent discovery of novel myositis-associated autoantibodies in adult patients suggests this may increase in the near future. Detailed phenotype descriptions are now known for several autoantibodies commonly identified in juvenile-onset disease. Whilst there is insufficient evidence to recommend a differential treatment approach based on autoantibody status, it is becoming increasingly clear that some autoantibody subgroups are often treatment resistant and may benefit from a more aggressive approach. The validation of nonspecialised methods for myositis-specific autoantibody detection should lead to more widely available testing. In juvenile-onset disease, this will provide detailed prognostic information and in the future may also influence approach.

Irreversibly increased nitrogen fixation in Trichodesmium experimentally adapted to elevated carbon dioxide

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Hutchins, David A.; Walworth, Nathan G.; Webb, Eric A.; Saito, Mak A.; Moran, Dawn; McIlvin, Matthew R.; Gale, Jasmine; Fu, Fei-Xue

2015-09-01

Nitrogen fixation rates of the globally distributed, biogeochemically important marine cyanobacterium Trichodesmium increase under high carbon dioxide (CO2) levels in short-term studies due to physiological plasticity. However, its long-term adaptive responses to ongoing anthropogenic CO2 increases are unknown. Here we show that experimental evolution under extended selection at projected future elevated CO2 levels results in irreversible, large increases in nitrogen fixation and growth rates, even after being moved back to lower present day CO2 levels for hundreds of generations. This represents an unprecedented microbial evolutionary response, as reproductive fitness increases acquired in the selection environment are maintained after returning to the ancestral environment. Constitutive rate increases are accompanied by irreversible shifts in diel nitrogen fixation patterns, and increased activity of a potentially regulatory DNA methyltransferase enzyme. High CO2-selected cell lines also exhibit increased phosphorus-limited growth rates, suggesting a potential advantage for this keystone organism in a more nutrient-limited, acidified future ocean.

Schottky Barrier Height of Pd/MoS2 Contact by Large Area Photoemission Spectroscopy.

PubMed

Dong, Hong; Gong, Cheng; Addou, Rafik; McDonnell, Stephen; Azcatl, Angelica; Qin, Xiaoye; Wang, Weichao; Wang, Weihua; Hinkle, Christopher L; Wallace, Robert M

2017-11-08

MoS 2 , as a model transition metal dichalcogenide, is viewed as a potential channel material in future nanoelectronic and optoelectronic devices. Minimizing the contact resistance of the metal/MoS 2 junction is critical to realizing the potential of MoS 2 -based devices. In this work, the Schottky barrier height (SBH) and the band structure of high work function Pd metal on MoS 2 have been studied by in situ X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS). The analytical spot diameter of the XPS spectrometer is about 400 μm, and the XPS signal is proportional to the detection area, so the influence of defect-mediated parallel conduction paths on the SBH does not affect the measurement. The charge redistribution by Pd on MoS 2 is detected by XPS characterization, which gives insight into metal contact physics to MoS 2 and suggests that interface engineering is necessary to lower the contact resistance for the future generation electronic applications.

Colorectal cancer screening and adverse childhood experiences: Which adversities matter?

PubMed

Alcalá, Héctor E; Keim-Malpass, Jessica; Mitchell, Emma

2017-07-01

Adverse Childhood Experiences (ACEs) have been associated with an increased risk of a variety of diseases, including cancer. However, research has not paid enough attention to the association between ACEs and cancer screening. As such, the present study examined the association between ACEs and ever using colorectal cancer (CRC) screening, among adults age 50 and over. Analyses used the 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (n=24,938) to model odds of ever engaging in CRC screening from nine different adversities. Bivariate and multivariate models were fit. In bivariate models, physical abuse, having parents that were divorced or separated, and living in a household where adults treated each other violently were associated with lower odds of engaging in CRC. In multivariate models that accounted for potential confounders, emotional and sexual abuse were each associated with higher odds of engaging in CRC. Results suggest potential pathways by which early childhood experiences can impact future health behaviors. Future research should examine this association longitudinally. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Climatic niche of Selinum alatum (Apiaceae, Selineae), a new invasive plant species in Central Europe and its alterations according to the climate change scenarios: Are the European mountains threatened by invasion?

PubMed Central

Proćków, Małgorzata; Proćków, Jarosław

2017-01-01

In recent years, a few established populations of Selinum alatum have been found in the Eastern Carpathians outside its native range that is the Caucasus and the Armenian Highlands. The species is spreading predominantly in Poland where it can outcompete native plants in certain cases. This study addresses a potential climatic niche of the plant with the special aims to illuminate future spreading and indicate areas suitable for invasion. Our results show that the extent of the favourable habitat of the species is broader than currently known. This suggests that the plant has the ability to become a potential new element in some semi-natural or disturbed ecosystems associated with mountainous areas, especially in Central and Southern Europe. Future (2070) models mostly rendered similar suitability maps, but showed slight differences over particular areas and a contraction of suitable habitats, mainly in the northern part of the non-native range. PMID:28806731

Hair dye use and risk of human cancer.

PubMed

Zhang, Yawei; Kim, Christopher; Zheng, Tongzhang

2012-01-01

Over 50% of the adult population will use hair dyes at some point in their lifetimes. Hair dyes consist of various chemicals and the composition of these chemicals vary by hair dye types. Chemicals p-phenylenediamine and aminophenyl have been suggested as possible carcinogens or mutagens in experimental studies. The scientific community has been interested in this potential public health impact and the results of published epidemiological studies are summarized here. The current evidence provides limited evidences on the association between personal hair dye use and human cancer risk, except for the possibility of hematopoietic cancers and to a lesser extent, bladder cancer. Risk appears to be affected by time period of use and by specific genetic polymorphisms. Future studies should investigate potential gene and environment interaction to assess possible genetic susceptibility. Several methodological issues should also be considered in future studies including completed hair dye use information such as on timing, duration, frequency and type of hair dye product use.

Suicide and the Polyamine System

PubMed Central

Gross, Jeffrey A.; Turecki, Gustavo

2017-01-01

Suicide is a significant worldwide public health problem. Understanding the neurobiology is important as it can help us to better elucidate underlying etiological factors and provide opportunities for intervention. In recent years, many lines of research have suggested that the polyamine system may be dysregulated in suicidal behaviors. Initial research in animals provided evidence of a dysfunctional polyamine stress response system, while later work using post-mortem human brain tissue has suggested that molecular mechanisms may be at play in the suicide brain. In this review, we will describe the research that suggests the presence of alterations in the polyamine system in mental disorders and behavioral phenotypes, with particular attention to work on suicide. In addition, we will also describe potential avenues for future work. PMID:24040803

Estimating the potential water reuse based on fuzzy reasoning.

PubMed

Almeida, Giovana; Vieira, José; Marques, Alfeu Sá; Kiperstok, Asher; Cardoso, Alberto

2013-10-15

Studies worldwide suggest that the risk of water shortage in regions affected by climate change is growing. Decision support tools can help governments to identify future water supply problems in order to plan mitigation measures. Treated wastewater is considered a suitable alternative water resource and it is used for non-potable applications in many dry regions around the world. This work describes a decision support system (DSS) that was developed to identify current water reuse potential and the variables that determine the reclamation level. The DSS uses fuzzy inference system (FIS) as a tool and multi-criteria decision making is the conceptual approach behind the DSS. It was observed that water reuse level seems to be related to environmental factors such as drought, water exploitation index, water use, population density and the wastewater treatment rate, among others. A dataset was built to analyze these features through water reuse potential with a FIS that considered 155 regions and 183 cities. Despite some inexact fit between the classification and simulation data for agricultural and urban water reuse potential it was found that the FIS was suitable to identify the water reuse trend. Information on the water reuse potential is important because it issues a warning about future water supply needs based on climate change scenarios, which helps to support decision making with a view to tackling water shortage. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The past, present and future supernova threat to Earth's biosphere

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Beech, Martin

2011-12-01

A brief review of the threat posed to Earth's biosphere via near-by supernova detonations is presented. The expected radiation dosage, cosmic ray flux and expanding blast wave collision effects are considered, and it is argued that a typical supernova must be closer than ˜10-pc before any appreciable and potentially harmful atmosphere/biosphere effects are likely to occur. In contrast, the critical distance for Gamma-ray bursts is of order 1-kpc. In spite of the high energy effects potentially involved, the geological record provides no clear-cut evidence for any historic supernova induced mass extinctions and/or strong climate change episodes. This, however, is mostly a reflection of their being numerous possible (terrestrial and astronomical) forcing mechanisms acting upon the biosphere and the difficulty of distinguishing between competing scenarios. Key to resolving this situation, it is suggested, is the development of supernova specific extinction and climate change linked ecological models. Moving to the future, we estimate that over the remaining lifetime of the biosphere (˜2 Gyr) the Earth might experience 1 GRB and 20 supernova detonations within their respective harmful threat ranges. There are currently at least 12 potential pre-supernova systems within 1-kpc of the Sun. Of these systems IK Pegasi is the closest Type Ia pre-supernova candidate and Betelgeuse is the closest potential Type II supernova candidate. We review in some detail the past, present and future behavior of these two systems. Developing a detailed evolutionary model we find that IK Pegasi will likely not detonate until some 1.9 billion years hence, and that it affords absolutely no threat to Earth's biosphere. Betelgeuse is the closest, reasonably well understood, pre-supernova candidate to the Sun at the present epoch, and may undergo detonation any time within the next several million years. The stand-off distance of Betelgeuse at the time of its detonation is estimated to fall between 150 and 300-pc—again, affording no possible threat to Earth's biosphere. Temporally, the next most likely, close, potential Type Ic supernova to the Sun is the Wolf-Rayet star within the γ 2 Velorum binary system located at least 260-pc away. It is suggested that evidence relating to large-scale astroengineering projects might fruitfully be looked for in those regions located within 10 to 30-pc of any pre-supernova candidate system.

Modeling the potential persistence of various ecological systems under CMIP5 future climate and land use scenarios throughout California, USA

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Baker, B.; Ferschweiler, K.; Bachelet, D. M.; Sleeter, B. M.

2016-12-01

California's geographic location, topographic complexity and latitudinal climatic gradient give rise to great biological and ecological diversity. However, increased land use pressure, altered seasonal weather patterns, and changes in temperature and precipitation regimes are having pronounced effects on ecosystems and the multitude of services they provide for an increasing population. As a result, natural resource managers are faced with formidable challenges to maintain these critical services. The goals of this project were to better understand how projected 21st century climate and land-use change scenarios may alter ecosystem dynamics, the spatial distribution of various vegetation types and land-use patterns, and to provide a coarse scale "triage map" of where land managers may want to concentrate efforts to reduce ecological stress in order to mitigate the potential impacts of a changing climate. We used the MC2 dynamic global vegetation model and the LUCAS state-and-transition simulation model to simulate the potential effects of future climate and land-use change on ecological processes for the state of California. Historical climate data were obtained from the PRISM dataset and nine CMIP5 climate models were run for the RCP 8.5 scenario. Climate projections were combined with a business-as-usual land-use scenario based on local-scale land use histories. For ease of discussion, results from five simulation runs (historic, hot-dry, hot-wet, warm-dry, and warm-wet) are presented. Results showed large changes in the extent of urban and agricultural lands. In addition, several simulated potential vegetation types persisted in situ under all four future scenarios, although alterations in total area, total ecosystem carbon, and forest vigor (NPP/LAI) were noted. As might be expected, the majority of the forested types that persisted occurred on public lands. However, more than 78% of the simulated subtropical mixed forest and 26% of temperate evergreen needleleaf forest types persisted on private lands under all four future scenarios. Result suggest that building collaborations across management borders could be valuable tool to guide natural resource management actions into the future.

Preparation for future learning: a missing competency in health professions education?

PubMed

Mylopoulos, Maria; Brydges, Ryan; Woods, Nicole N; Manzone, Julian; Schwartz, Daniel L

2016-01-01

Evidence suggests that clinicians may not be learning effectively from all facets of their practice, potentially because their training has not fully prepared them to do so. To address this gap, we argue that there is a need to identify systems of instruction and assessment that enhance clinicians' 'preparation for future learning'. Preparation for future learning (PFL) is understood to be the capacity to learn new information, to use resources effectively and innovatively, and to invent new strategies for learning and problem solving in practice. Education researchers have developed study designs that use dynamic assessments to measure what trainees have acquired in the past, as well as what they are able to learn in the present. More recently, researchers have also started to emphasise and measure whether and how trainees take action to gain the information they need to learn. Knowing that there are study designs and emerging metrics for assessing PFL, the next question is how to design instruction that helps trainees develop PFL capacities. Although research evidence is still accumulating, the current evidence base suggests training that encourages 'productive failure' through guided discovery learning (i.e. where trainees solve problems and perform tasks without direct instruction, though often with some form of feedback) creates challenging conditions that enhance learning and equip trainees with PFL-related behaviours. Preparation for future learning and the associated capacity of being adaptive as one learns in and from training and clinical practice have been missed in most contemporary training and assessment systems. We propose a research agenda that (i) explores how real-world adaptive expert activity unfolds in the health care workplace to inform the design of instruction for developing PFL, (ii) identifies measures of behaviours that relate to PFL, and (iii) addresses potential sociocultural barriers that limit clinicians' opportunities to learn from their daily practice. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potential relocation of climatic environments suggests high rates of climate displacement within the North American protection network.

PubMed

Batllori, Enric; Parisien, Marc-André; Parks, Sean A; Moritz, Max A; Miller, Carol

2017-08-01

Ongoing climate change may undermine the effectiveness of protected area networks in preserving the set of biotic components and ecological processes they harbor, thereby jeopardizing their conservation capacity into the future. Metrics of climate change, particularly rates and spatial patterns of climatic alteration, can help assess potential threats. Here, we perform a continent-wide climate change vulnerability assessment whereby we compare the baseline climate of the protected area network in North America (Canada, United States, México-NAM) to the projected end-of-century climate (2071-2100). We estimated the projected pace at which climatic conditions may redistribute across NAM (i.e., climate velocity), and identified future nearest climate analogs to quantify patterns of climate relocation within, among, and outside protected areas. Also, we interpret climatic relocation patterns in terms of associated land-cover types. Our analysis suggests that the conservation capacity of the NAM protection network is likely to be severely compromised by a changing climate. The majority of protected areas (~80%) might be exposed to high rates of climate displacement that could promote important shifts in species abundance or distribution. A small fraction of protected areas (<10%) could be critical for future conservation plans, as they will host climates that represent analogs of conditions currently characterizing almost a fifth of the protected areas across NAM. However, the majority of nearest climatic analogs for protected areas are in nonprotected locations. Therefore, unprotected landscapes could pose additional threats, beyond climate forcing itself, as sensitive biota may have to migrate farther than what is prescribed by the climate velocity to reach a protected area destination. To mitigate future threats to the conservation capacity of the NAM protected area network, conservation plans will need to capitalize on opportunities provided by the existing availability of natural land-cover types outside the current network of NAM protected areas. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Rooftop solar photovoltaic potential in cities: how scalable are assessment approaches?

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castellanos, Sergio; Sunter, Deborah A.; Kammen, Daniel M.

2017-12-01

Distributed photovoltaics (PV) have played a critical role in the deployment of solar energy, currently making up roughly half of the global PV installed capacity. However, there remains significant unused economically beneficial potential. Estimates of the total technical potential for rooftop PV systems in the United States calculate a generation comparable to approximately 40% of the 2016 total national electric-sector sales. To best take advantage of the rooftop PV potential, effective analytic tools that support deployment strategies and aggressive local, state, and national policies to reduce the soft cost of solar energy are vital. A key step is the low-cost automation of data analysis and business case presentation for structure-integrated solar energy. In this paper, the scalability and resolution of various methods to assess the urban rooftop PV potential are compared, concluding with suggestions for future work in bridging methodologies to better assist policy makers.

Evangelical Protestants and the ACA: An Opening for Community-Based Primary Care?

PubMed

Franz, Berkeley; Skinner, Daniel

2016-07-01

Evangelical Protestants make up the largest religious subgroup in the United States, and previous research has shown that Evangelical churches are disproportionately active in community engagement and efforts toward social change. Although Evangelical Protestant perspectives have been considered with regard to persistent socioeconomic stratification and racial discrimination, less focus has been given to how churches interpret poor health outcomes within the United States. In particular, this research addresses how enduring health disparities are understood within the larger discussion of healthcare reform. Due to the similarity of approaches favored by participants in this study and community-based philosophy, a suggestion is made for future health policy dialogue. Although Evangelical Protestants have been most likely to reject all aspects of the Affordable Care Act, in many ways the findings of this study suggest the potential for successful future health policy collaboration. In particular, community-based primary care might appeal to Evangelicals and health professionals in the ongoing effort to improve population health and the quality of healthcare in the United States.

Hypersonic Airbreathing Propulsion: An Aerodynamics, Aerothermodynamics, and Acoustics Competency White Paper

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Drummond, J. Philip; Cockrell, Charles E., Jr.; Pellett, Gerald L.; Diskin, Glenn S.; Auslender, Aaron H.; Exton, Reginald J.; Guy, R. Wayne; Hoppe, John C.; Puster, Richard L.; Rogers, R. Clayton

2002-01-01

This White Paper examines the current state of Hypersonic Airbreathing Propulsion at the NASA Langley Research Center and the factors influencing this area of work and its personnel. Using this knowledge, the paper explores beyond the present day and suggests future directions and strategies for the field. Broad views are first taken regarding potential missions and applications of hypersonic propulsion. Then, candidate propulsion systems that may be applicable to these missions are suggested and discussed. Design tools and experimental techniques for developing these propulsion systems are then described, and approaches for applying them in the design process are considered. In each case, current strategies are reviewed and future approaches that may improve the techniques are considered. Finally, the paper concentrates on the needs to be addressed in each of these areas to take advantage of the opportunities that lay ahead for both the NASA Langley Research Center and the Aerodynamic Aerothermodynamic, and Aeroacoustics Competency. Recommendations are then provided so that the goals set forth in the paper may be achieved.

Information about the US racial demographic shift triggers concerns about anti-White discrimination among the prospective White “minority”

PubMed Central

Richeson, Jennifer A.

2017-01-01

The United States is undergoing a demographic shift in which White Americans are predicted to comprise less than 50% of the US population by mid-century. The present research examines how exposure to information about this racial shift affects perceptions of the extent to which different racial groups face discrimination. In four experiments, making the growing national racial diversity salient led White Americans to predict that Whites will face increasing discrimination in the future, compared with control information. Conversely, regardless of experimental condition, Whites estimated that discrimination against various racial minority groups will decline. Explorations of several psychological mechanisms potentially underlying the effect of the racial shift information on perceived anti-White discrimination suggested a mediating role of concerns about American culture fundamentally changing. Taken together, these findings suggest that reports about the changing national demographics enhance concerns among Whites that they will be the victims of racial discrimination in the future. PMID:28953971

Information about the US racial demographic shift triggers concerns about anti-White discrimination among the prospective White "minority".

PubMed

Craig, Maureen A; Richeson, Jennifer A

2017-01-01

The United States is undergoing a demographic shift in which White Americans are predicted to comprise less than 50% of the US population by mid-century. The present research examines how exposure to information about this racial shift affects perceptions of the extent to which different racial groups face discrimination. In four experiments, making the growing national racial diversity salient led White Americans to predict that Whites will face increasing discrimination in the future, compared with control information. Conversely, regardless of experimental condition, Whites estimated that discrimination against various racial minority groups will decline. Explorations of several psychological mechanisms potentially underlying the effect of the racial shift information on perceived anti-White discrimination suggested a mediating role of concerns about American culture fundamentally changing. Taken together, these findings suggest that reports about the changing national demographics enhance concerns among Whites that they will be the victims of racial discrimination in the future.

Supporting nursing students' critical thinking with a mobile web learning environment.

PubMed

Lai, Chin-Yuan; Wu, Cheng-Chih

2012-01-01

The use of mobile technology has the potential of revolutionizing and transforming the way clinical practicums are conducted in nursing training. Our Web-based implementation suggested that incorporating technology, specifically with Internet and mobile devices, to promote nursing students’ critical thinking is feasible and showed dramatic results. As our environment was tailored for the psychiatric nursing practicum, future studies should delineate the context in which they are to be delivered.

The Third Nuclear Age: How I Learned to Start Worrying about the Clean Bomb

DTIC Science & Technology

2013-02-14

Fourth generation fusion nuclear weapons (FGNW) represent a significant improvement in nuclear weapons technology and suggest the potential for...future challenges that the United States and its Air Force may face twenty-five years from now. This paper does not answer whether the fusion technology...is possible and assumes it as an inevitable technological advancement. Instead, this study predicts a world in which low yield, clean fusion

A Decoherence-Free Quantum Memory Using Trapped Ions

DTIC Science & Technology

2016-09-22

superpo- sitions. Robust quantum memories are there- fore essential to realizing the potential gains of quantum computing (3). However, inter- action of a...tolerant quantum logic (13, 14). These properties suggest that DFSs will be intrinsic to future quantum computing architectures. Logic gates on DFS...practi- cal quantum computing will in any case re- quire logic gates of a much higher fidelity than those used in this work. We therefore expect that, once

Modeling future scenarios of light attenuation and potential seagrass success in a eutrophic estuary

USGS Publications Warehouse

del Barrio, Pilar; Ganju, Neil K.; Aretxabaleta, Alfredo L.; Hayn, Melanie; García, Andrés; Howarth, Robert W.

2014-01-01

Estuarine eutrophication has led to numerous ecological changes, including loss of seagrass beds. One potential cause of these losses is a reduction in light availability due to increased attenuation by phytoplankton. Future sea level rise will also tend to reduce light penetration and modify seagrass habitat. In the present study, we integrate a spectral irradiance model into a biogeochemical model coupled to the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). It is linked to a bio-optical seagrass model to assess potential seagrass habitat in a eutrophic estuary under future nitrate loading and sea-level rise scenarios. The model was applied to West Falmouth Harbor, a shallow estuary located on Cape Cod (Massachusetts) where nitrate from groundwater has led to eutrophication and seagrass loss in landward portions of the estuary. Measurements of chlorophyll, turbidity, light attenuation, and seagrass coverage were used to assess the model accuracy. Mean chlorophyll based on uncalibrated in-situ fluorometry varied from 28 μg L−1 at the landward-most site to 6.5 μg L−1 at the seaward site, while light attenuation ranged from 0.86 to 0.45 m-1. The model reproduced the spatial variability in chlorophyll and light attenuation with RMS errors of 3.72 μg L−1 and 0.07 m-1 respectively. Scenarios of future nitrate reduction and sea-level rise suggest an improvement in light climate in the landward basin with a 75% reduction in nitrate loading. This coupled model may be useful to assess habitat availability changes due to eutrophication and sediment resuspension and fully considers spatial variability on the tidal timescale.

Population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum, a pioneer annual plant endemic to mobile sand dunes, in response to global climate change.

PubMed

Qian, Chaoju; Yin, Hengxia; Shi, Yong; Zhao, Jiecai; Yin, Chengliang; Luo, Wanyin; Dong, Zhibao; Chen, Guoxiong; Yan, Xia; Wang, Xiao-Ru; Ma, Xiao-Fei

2016-05-23

Climate change plays an important role in the transition of ecosystems. Stratigraphic investigations have suggested that the Asian interior experienced frequent transitions between grassland and desert ecosystems as a consequence of global climate change. Using maternally and bi-parentally inherited markers, we investigated the population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum (Chenopodiaceae), an annual pioneer plant endemic to mobile sand dunes. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that A. squarrosum could originate from Gurbantunggut desert since ~1.6 Ma, and subsequently underwent three waves of colonisation into other deserts and sandy lands corresponding to several glaciations. The rapid population expansion and distribution range shifts of A. squarrosum from monsoonal climate zones suggested that the development of the monsoonal climate significantly enhanced the population growth and gene flow of A. squarrosum. These data also suggested that desertification of the fragile grassland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was more ancient than previously suggested and will be aggravated under global warming in the future. This study provides new molecular phylogeographic insights into how pioneer annual plant species in desert ecosystems respond to global climate change, and facilitates evaluation of the ecological potential and genetic resources of future crops for non-arable dry lands to mitigate climate change.

Population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum, a pioneer annual plant endemic to mobile sand dunes, in response to global climate change

PubMed Central

Qian, Chaoju; Yin, Hengxia; Shi, Yong; Zhao, Jiecai; Yin, Chengliang; Luo, Wanyin; Dong, Zhibao; Chen, Guoxiong; Yan, Xia; Wang, Xiao-Ru; Ma, Xiao-Fei

2016-01-01

Climate change plays an important role in the transition of ecosystems. Stratigraphic investigations have suggested that the Asian interior experienced frequent transitions between grassland and desert ecosystems as a consequence of global climate change. Using maternally and bi-parentally inherited markers, we investigated the population dynamics of Agriophyllum squarrosum (Chenopodiaceae), an annual pioneer plant endemic to mobile sand dunes. Phylogeographic analysis revealed that A. squarrosum could originate from Gurbantunggut desert since ~1.6 Ma, and subsequently underwent three waves of colonisation into other deserts and sandy lands corresponding to several glaciations. The rapid population expansion and distribution range shifts of A. squarrosum from monsoonal climate zones suggested that the development of the monsoonal climate significantly enhanced the population growth and gene flow of A. squarrosum. These data also suggested that desertification of the fragile grassland ecosystems in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau was more ancient than previously suggested and will be aggravated under global warming in the future. This study provides new molecular phylogeographic insights into how pioneer annual plant species in desert ecosystems respond to global climate change, and facilitates evaluation of the ecological potential and genetic resources of future crops for non-arable dry lands to mitigate climate change. PMID:27210568

Neighborhood Effects in a Behavioral Randomized Controlled Trial

PubMed Central

Pruitt, Sandi L.; Leonard, Tammy; Murdoch, James; Hughes, Amy; McQueen, Amy; Gupta, Samir

2015-01-01

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions intended to modify health behaviors may be influenced by neighborhood effects which can impede unbiased estimation of intervention effects. Examining a RCT designed to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening (N=5,628), we found statistically significant neighborhood effects: average CRC test use among neighboring study participants was significantly and positively associated with individual patient’s CRC test use. This potentially important spatially-varying covariate has not previously been considered in a RCT. Our results suggest that future RCTs of health behavior interventions should assess potential social interactions between participants, which may cause intervention arm contamination and may bias effect size estimation. PMID:25456014

Commentary: Learning from Variations in Fidelity of Implementation.

PubMed

Balu, Rekha; Doolittle, Fred

2016-12-01

The articles in this special issue discuss efforts to improve academic reading outcomes for students and ways to achieve high implementation fidelity of promising strategies. At times the authors discuss if-and how-strong fidelity is associated with strong outcomes and potentially even impacts (the difference between program and control group outcomes). We want to explore this theme in two ways: (a) learning from the variation in fidelity to think about potential points of entry and levers for improvement in implementation, and (b) broadening the evaluation focus to include "service contrast" as a factor driving impacts on student outcomes. We conclude with suggestions for future research. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Mg co-ordination with potential carcinogenic molecule acrylamide: Spectroscopic, computational and cytotoxicity studies

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Singh, Ranjana; Mishra, Vijay K.; Singh, Hemant K.; Sharma, Gunjan; Koch, Biplob; Singh, Bachcha; Singh, Ranjan K.

2018-03-01

Acrylamide (acr) is a potential toxic molecule produced in thermally processed food stuff. Acr-Mg complex has been synthesized chemically and characterized by spectroscopic techniques. The binding sites of acr with Mg were identified by experimental and computational methods. Both experimental and theoretical results suggest that Mg coordinated with the oxygen atom of Cdbnd O group of acr. In-vitro cytotoxicity studies revealed significant decrease in the toxic level of acr-Mg complex as compared to pure acr. The decrease in toxicity on complexation with Mg may be a useful step for future research to reduce the toxicity of acr.

Java and its future in biomedical computing.

PubMed Central

Rodgers, R P

1996-01-01

Java, a new object-oriented computing language related to C++, is receiving considerable attention due to its use in creating network-sharable, platform-independent software modules (known as "applets") that can be used with the World Wide Web. The Web has rapidly become the most commonly used information-retrieval tool associated with the global computer network known as the Internet, and Java has the potential to further accelerate the Web's application to medical problems. Java's potentially wide acceptance due to its Web association and its own technical merits also suggests that it may become a popular language for non-Web-based, object-oriented computing. PMID:8880677

Modeling and mapping the current and future distribution of Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae under climate change in China.

PubMed

Wang, Rulin; Li, Qing; He, Shisong; Liu, Yuan; Wang, Mingtian; Jiang, Gan

2018-01-01

Bacterial canker of kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae pv. actinidiae (Psa) is a major threat to the kiwifruit industry throughout the world and accounts for substantial economic losses in China. The aim of the present study was to test and explore the possibility of using MaxEnt (maximum entropy models) to predict and analyze the future large-scale distribution of Psa in China. Based on the current environmental factors, three future climate scenarios, which were suggested by the fifth IPCC report, and the current distribution sites of Psa, MaxEnt combined with ArcGIS was applied to predict the potential suitable areas and the changing trend of Psa in China. The jackknife test and correlation analysis were used to choose dominant climatic factors. The receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) drawn by MaxEnt was used to evaluate the accuracy of the simulation. The results showed that under current climatic conditions, the area from latitude 25° to 36°N and from longitude 101° to 122°E is the primary potential suitable area of Psa in China. The highly suitable area (with suitability between 66 and 100) was mainly concentrated in Northeast Sichuan, South Shaanxi, most of Chongqing, West Hubei and Southwest Gansu and occupied 4.94% of land in China. Under different future emission scenarios, both the areas and the centers of the suitable areas all showed differences compared with the current situation. Four climatic variables, i.e., maximum April temperature (19%), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (14%), precipitation in May (11.5%) and minimum temperature in October (10.8%), had the largest impact on the distribution of Psa. The MaxEnt model is potentially useful for forecasting the future adaptive distribution of Psa under climate change, and it provides important guidance for comprehensive management.

SHORT REPORT Technological dreams: The implications of new technologies for occupational therapy education and evidence-based practice.

PubMed

Steward, BARBARA

2001-01-01

Computer technologies will change both occupational therapy education and practice. Technological optimists suggest that there will be positive benefits for distance learning and supervision, universal equal access to information and expertise, and positive cross-cultural exchange. However, technologies have inevitable and unexpected costs. In this report I explore the potential for future problems with professional induction, educational reductionism, cultural imperialism and deprofessionalization through a review of the literature. I suggest that early recognition of the costs as well as the benefits of computer-based education will be important to the development of international occupational therapy.

Pre-exposure to simultaneous, but not individual, climate change stressors limits acclimation capacity of Irukandji jellyfish polyps to predicted climate scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Klein, Shannon G.; Pitt, Kylie A.; Carroll, Anthony R.

2017-09-01

Researchers have investigated the immediate effects of end-of-century climate change scenarios on many marine species, yet it remains unclear whether we can reliably predict how marine species may respond to future conditions because biota may become either more or less resistant over time. Here, we examined the role of pre-exposure to elevated temperature and reduced pH in mitigating the potential negative effects of future ocean conditions on polyps of a dangerous Irukandji jellyfish Alatina alata. We pre-exposed polyps to elevated temperature (28 °C) and reduced pH (7.6), in a full factorial experiment that ran for 14 d. We secondarily exposed original polyps and their daughter polyps to either current (pH 8.0, 25 °C) or future conditions (pH 7.6, 28 °C) for a further 34 d to assess potential phenotypic plastic responses and whether asexual offspring could benefit from parental pre-exposure. Polyp fitness was characterised as asexual reproduction, respiration, feeding, and protein concentrations. Pre-exposure to elevated temperature alone partially mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness, while pre-exposure to reduced pH in isolation completely mitigated the negative effects of future conditions on polyp fitness. Pre-exposure to the dual stressors, however, reduced fitness under future conditions relative to those in the control treatment. Under future conditions, polyps had higher respiration rates regardless of the conditions they were pre-exposed to, suggesting that metabolic rates will be higher under future conditions. Parent and daughter polyps responded similarly to the various treatments tested, demonstrating that parental pre-exposure did not confer any benefit to asexual offspring under future conditions. Importantly, we demonstrate that while pre-exposure to the stressors individually may allow Irukandji polyps to acclimate over short timescales, the stressors are unlikely to occur in isolation in the long term, and thus, warming and acidification in parallel may prevent polyp populations from acclimating to future ocean conditions.

Feeling Closer to the Future Self and Doing Better: Temporal Psychological Mechanisms Underlying Academic Performance.

PubMed

Adelman, Robert Mark; Herrmann, Sarah D; Bodford, Jessica E; Barbour, Joseph E; Graudejus, Oliver; Okun, Morris A; Kwan, Virginia S Y

2017-06-01

This research examined the function of future self-continuity and its potential downstream consequences for academic performance through relations with other temporal psychological factors and self-control. We also addressed the influence of cultural factors by testing whether these relations differed by college generation status. Undergraduate students enrolled at a large public university participated in two studies (Study 1: N = 119, M age  = 20.55, 56.4% women; Study 2: N = 403, M age  = 19.83, 58.3% women) in which they completed measures of temporal psychological factors and psychological resources. In Study 2, we also obtained academic records to link responses to academic performance. Future self-continuity predicted subsequent academic performance and was related positively to future focus, negatively to present focus, and positively to self-control. Additionally, the relation between future focus and self-control was stronger for continuing-generation college students than first-generation college students. Future self-continuity plays a pivotal role in academic contexts. Findings suggest that it may have positive downstream consequences on academic achievement by directing attention away from the present and toward the future, which promotes self-control. Further, the strategy of focusing on the future may be effective in promoting self-control only for certain cultural groups. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Infectious disease, shifting climates, and opportunistic predators: cumulative factors potentially impacting wild salmon declines

PubMed Central

Miller, Kristina M; Teffer, Amy; Tucker, Strahan; Li, Shaorong; Schulze, Angela D; Trudel, Marc; Juanes, Francis; Tabata, Amy; Kaukinen, Karia H; Ginther, Norma G; Ming, Tobi J; Cooke, Steven J; Hipfner, J Mark; Patterson, David A; Hinch, Scott G

2014-01-01

Emerging diseases are impacting animals under high-density culture, yet few studies assess their importance to wild populations. Microparasites selected for enhanced virulence in culture settings should be less successful maintaining infectivity in wild populations, as once the host dies, there are limited opportunities to infect new individuals. Instead, moderately virulent microparasites persisting for long periods across multiple environments are of greatest concern. Evolved resistance to endemic microparasites may reduce susceptibilities, but as barriers to microparasite distributions are weakened, and environments become more stressful, unexposed populations may be impacted and pathogenicity enhanced. We provide an overview of the evolutionary and ecological impacts of infectious diseases in wild salmon and suggest ways in which modern technologies can elucidate the microparasites of greatest potential import. We present four case studies that resolve microparasite impacts on adult salmon migration success, impact of river warming on microparasite replication, and infection status on susceptibility to predation. Future health of wild salmon must be considered in a holistic context that includes the cumulative or synergistic impacts of multiple stressors. These approaches will identify populations at greatest risk, critically needed to manage and potentially ameliorate the shifts in current or future trajectories of wild populations. PMID:25469162

Infectious disease, shifting climates, and opportunistic predators: cumulative factors potentially impacting wild salmon declines.

PubMed

Miller, Kristina M; Teffer, Amy; Tucker, Strahan; Li, Shaorong; Schulze, Angela D; Trudel, Marc; Juanes, Francis; Tabata, Amy; Kaukinen, Karia H; Ginther, Norma G; Ming, Tobi J; Cooke, Steven J; Hipfner, J Mark; Patterson, David A; Hinch, Scott G

2014-08-01

Emerging diseases are impacting animals under high-density culture, yet few studies assess their importance to wild populations. Microparasites selected for enhanced virulence in culture settings should be less successful maintaining infectivity in wild populations, as once the host dies, there are limited opportunities to infect new individuals. Instead, moderately virulent microparasites persisting for long periods across multiple environments are of greatest concern. Evolved resistance to endemic microparasites may reduce susceptibilities, but as barriers to microparasite distributions are weakened, and environments become more stressful, unexposed populations may be impacted and pathogenicity enhanced. We provide an overview of the evolutionary and ecological impacts of infectious diseases in wild salmon and suggest ways in which modern technologies can elucidate the microparasites of greatest potential import. We present four case studies that resolve microparasite impacts on adult salmon migration success, impact of river warming on microparasite replication, and infection status on susceptibility to predation. Future health of wild salmon must be considered in a holistic context that includes the cumulative or synergistic impacts of multiple stressors. These approaches will identify populations at greatest risk, critically needed to manage and potentially ameliorate the shifts in current or future trajectories of wild populations.

Arctic shipping emissions inventories and future scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Corbett, J. J.; Lack, D. A.; Winebrake, J. J.; Harder, S.; Silberman, J. A.; Gold, M.

2010-10-01

This paper presents 5 km×5 km Arctic emissions inventories of important greenhouse gases, black carbon and other pollutants under existing and future (2050) scenarios that account for growth of shipping in the region, potential diversion traffic through emerging routes, and possible emissions control measures. These high-resolution, geospatial emissions inventories for shipping can be used to evaluate Arctic climate sensitivity to black carbon (a short-lived climate forcing pollutant especially effective in accelerating the melting of ice and snow), aerosols, and gaseous emissions including carbon dioxide. We quantify ship emissions scenarios which are expected to increase as declining sea ice coverage due to climate change allows for increased shipping activity in the Arctic. A first-order calculation of global warming potential due to 2030 emissions in the high-growth scenario suggests that short-lived forcing of ~4.5 gigagrams of black carbon from Arctic shipping may increase global warming potential due to Arctic ships' CO2 emissions (~42 000 gigagrams) by some 17% to 78%. The paper also presents maximum feasible reduction scenarios for black carbon in particular. These emissions reduction scenarios will enable scientists and policymakers to evaluate the efficacy and benefits of technological controls for black carbon, and other pollutants from ships.

A first look at the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the future delivery of fluvial sediment to the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna delta.

PubMed

Darby, Stephen E; Dunn, Frances E; Nicholls, Robert J; Rahman, Munsur; Riddy, Liam

2015-09-01

We employ a climate-driven hydrological water balance and sediment transport model (HydroTrend) to simulate future climate-driven sediment loads flowing into the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (GBM) mega-delta. The model was parameterised using high-quality topographic data and forced with daily temperature and precipitation data obtained from downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations for the period 1971-2100. Three perturbed RCM model runs were selected to quantify the potential range of future climate conditions associated with the SRES A1B scenario. Fluvial sediment delivery rates to the GBM delta associated with these climate data sets are projected to increase under the influence of anthropogenic climate change, albeit with the magnitude of the increase varying across the two catchments. Of the two study basins, the Brahmaputra's fluvial sediment load is predicted to be more sensitive to future climate change. Specifically, by the middle part of the 21(st) century, our model results suggest that sediment loads increase (relative to the 1981-2000 baseline period) over a range of between 16% and 18% (depending on climate model run) for the Ganges, but by between 25% and 28% for the Brahmaputra. The simulated increase in sediment flux emanating from the two catchments further increases towards the end of the 21(st) century, reaching between 34% and 37% for the Ganges and between 52% and 60% for the Brahmaputra by the 2090s. The variability in these changes across the three climate change simulations is small compared to the changes, suggesting they represent a significant increase. The new data obtained in this study offer the first estimate of whether and how anthropogenic climate change may affect the delivery of fluvial sediment to the GBM delta, informing assessments of the future sustainability and resilience of one of the world's most vulnerable mega-deltas. Specifically, such significant increases in future sediment loads could increase the resilience of the delta to sea-level rise by giving greater potential for vertical accretion. However, these increased sediment fluxes may not be realised due to uncertainties in the monsoon related response to climate change or other human-induced changes in the catchment: this is a subject for further research.

How can countries achieve sustainable food supply in 2050: current knowledge and way forward

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kummu, M.; Fader, M.; Gerten, D.; Guillaume, J. H. A.; Jalava, M.; Jägermeyr, J.; Pfister, S.; Porkka, M.; Siebert, S.; Varis, O.

2016-12-01

Growing population and climate change increase the pressure on already scarce land and water resources. To reach adequate future food supply, without increasing the pressure on these already scarce resources, various measures are suggested, including diet change, food loss reduction and closing the yield gap. Existing studies have highlighted the potential of these measures as solutions for future food security. However, these are either assessed on a global level or if spatially disaggregated, disconnected from each other. These studies illustrate well that the potential of each measure to increase food availability differs widely across the nations. Thus, spatially explicit information on these measures in a combined assessment is urgently needed to understand the leading resource-efficiency opportunities for each geographic area. By using the most recent datasets, we assess how much each country would potentially be able to increase food production with each measure alone and combining them all, at moderate and high levels of implementation. Globally these measures would increase food availability by 90 and 188%, respectively - enough to feed global population in 2050 even with moderate implementation level. Variability among countries is, however, large and several countries in Central America, Africa, Southeast Asian Islands would need high-level of implementation to reach adequate food supply by then and even then, few countries in MENA region would need to increase the trade from today's levels. Our objective was to bring together potential of various measures for increased food production, as shown in different studies. However, dynamic feedbacks between these quantifications were not included in these estimations. For example, the diet change scenarios would result in different production needs, and changes in land use would be required. This, in turn, might influence the potential improvements in food loss reduction and food production. There is thus urgent need to integrate these, and other potential measures, together and deepen the knowledge of their combined impact on future sustainable food supply.

Quantifying the potential for reservoirs to secure future surface water yields in the world’s largest river basins

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Liu, Lu; Parkinson, Simon; Gidden, Matthew; Byers, Edward; Satoh, Yusuke; Riahi, Keywan; Forman, Barton

2018-04-01

Surface water reservoirs provide us with reliable water supply, hydropower generation, flood control and recreation services. Yet reservoirs also cause flow fragmentation in rivers and lead to flooding of upstream areas, thereby displacing existing land-use activities and ecosystems. Anticipated population growth and development coupled with climate change in many regions of the globe suggests a critical need to assess the potential for future reservoir capacity to help balance rising water demands with long-term water availability. Here, we assess the potential of large-scale reservoirs to provide reliable surface water yields while also considering environmental flows within 235 of the world’s largest river basins. Maps of existing cropland and habitat conservation zones are integrated with spatially-explicit population and urbanization projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways to identify regions unsuitable for increasing water supply by exploiting new reservoir storage. Results show that even when maximizing the global reservoir storage to its potential limit (∼4.3–4.8 times the current capacity), firm yields would only increase by about 50% over current levels. However, there exist large disparities across different basins. The majority of river basins in North America are found to gain relatively little firm yield by increasing storage capacity, whereas basins in Southeast Asia display greater potential for expansion as well as proportional gains in firm yield under multiple uncertainties. Parts of Europe, the United States and South America show relatively low reliability of maintaining current firm yields under future climate change, whereas most of Asia and higher latitude regions display comparatively high reliability. Findings from this study highlight the importance of incorporating different factors, including human development, land-use activities, and climate change, over a time span of multiple decades and across a range of different scenarios when quantifying available surface water yields and the potential for reservoir expansion.

Online canteens: awareness, use, barriers to use, and the acceptability of potential online strategies to improve public health nutrition in primary schools.

PubMed

Wyse, Rebecca; Yoong, Sze Lin; Dodds, Pennie; Campbell, Libby; Delaney, Tessa; Nathan, Nicole; Janssen, Lisa; Reilly, Kathryn; Sutherland, Rachel; Wiggers, John; Wolfenden, Luke

2017-03-01

Issue addressed This study of primary school principals assessed the awareness, use, barriers to use and acceptability of online canteens. Methods A telephone survey of 123 primary school principals within the Hunter New England Region of New South Wales, Australia was conducted from September 2014 to November 2014. Results Fifty-six percent of principals were aware of the existence of online canteens, with 8% having implemented such a system, and 38% likely to do so in the future. Medium/large schools were more likely to be aware of or to use online canteens, however there were no differences in awareness or use in relation to school rurality or socioeconomic advantage. Principals cited parent internet access as the most commonly identified perceived barrier to online canteen use, and the majority of principals (71-93%) agreed that it would be acceptable to implement a range of consumer behaviour strategies via an online canteen. Conclusions Study findings suggest that despite relatively low levels of current use, online canteens have the potential to reach a large proportion of school communities in the future, across geographical and socioeconomic divides, and that the nutrition interventions which they have the capacity to deliver are considered acceptable to school principals. So what? Online canteens may represent an opportunity to deliver nutrition interventions to school communities. Future research should examine the feasibility and potential effectiveness of interventions delivered via this modality.

Not my future? Core values and the neural representation of future events.

PubMed

Brosch, Tobias; Stussi, Yoann; Desrichard, Olivier; Sander, David

2018-06-01

Individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values have been shown to put greater weight on the long-term consequences of their actions when making decisions. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we investigated the neural mechanisms underlying the evaluation of events occurring several decades in the future as well as the role of core values in these processes. Thirty-six participants viewed a series of events, consisting of potential consequences of climate change, which could occur in the near future (around 2030), and thus would be experienced by the participants themselves, or in the far future (around 2080). We observed increased activation in anterior VMPFC (BA11), a region involved in encoding the personal significance of future events, when participants were envisioning far future events, demonstrating for the first time that the role of the VMPFC in future projection extends to the time scale of decades. Importantly, this activation increase was observed only in participants with pronounced self-transcendence values measured by self-report questionnaire, as shown by a statistically significant interaction of temporal distance and value structure. These findings suggest that future projection mechanisms are modulated by self-transcendence values to allow for a more extensive simulation of far future events. Consistent with this, these participants reported similar concern ratings for near and far future events, whereas participants with pronounced self-enhancement values were more concerned about near future events. Our findings provide a neural substrate for the tendency of individuals with pronounced self-transcendence values to consider the long-term consequences of their actions.

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Ellis, Lixia Z.; Liu, Weimin; Luo, Yuchun

Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer EGCG inhibits melanoma cell growth at physiological doses (0.1-1 {mu}M). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer EGCG inhibits melanoma cell growth via inflammasomes and IL-1{beta} suppression. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Inflammasomes and IL-1{beta} could be potential targets for future melanoma therapeutics. -- Abstract: Epigallocatechin-3-gallate (EGCG), the major polyphenolic component of green tea, has been demonstrated to possess anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, anti-mutagenic and anti-carcinogenic properties. The anti-melanoma effect of EGCG has been previously suggested, but no clear mechanism of action has been established. In this study, we demonstrated that EGCG inhibits melanoma cell growth at physiological doses (0.1-1 {mu}M). In the search for mechanisms of EGCG-mediated melanoma cellmore » suppression, we found that NF-{kappa}B was inhibited, and that reduced NF-{kappa}B activity was associated with decreased IL-1{beta} secretion from melanoma cells. Since inflammasomes are involved in IL-1{beta} secretion, we investigated whether IL-1{beta} suppression was mediated by inflammasomes, and found that EGCG treatment led to downregulation of the inflammasome component, NLRP1, and reduced caspase-1 activation. Furthermore, silencing the expression of NLRP1 abolished EGCG-induced inhibition of tumor cell proliferation both in vitro and in vivo, suggesting a key role of inflammasomes in EGCG efficacy. This paper provides a novel mechanism for EGCG-induced melanoma inhibition: inflammasome downregulation {yields} decreased IL-1{beta} secretion {yields} decreased NF-{kappa}B activities {yields} decreased cell growth. In addition, it suggests inflammasomes and IL-1{beta} could be potential targets for future melanoma therapeutics.« less

Sexual risk behaviors and acceptability of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis among HIV-negative gay and bisexual men in serodiscordant relationships: a mixed methods study.

PubMed

Brooks, Ronald A; Landovitz, Raphael J; Kaplan, Rachel L; Lieber, Eli; Lee, Sung-Jae; Barkley, Thomas W

2012-02-01

The objective of this mixed methods study was to examine current sexual risk behaviors, acceptability and potential adoption of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV prevention, and sexual behavior intentions with PrEP adoption among HIV-negative gay and bisexual men (GBM) in HIV serodiscordant relationships. A multiracial/ethnic sample of 25 HIV-negative GBM in serodiscordant relationships completed a qualitative interview and a brief interviewer-administered survey. A modified grounded theory approach was used to identify key themes relating to acceptability and future adoption of PrEP. Participants reported engaging in sexual risk behaviors that place them at risk for HIV infection. Participants also reported a high level of acceptability for PrEP and willingness to adopt PrEP for HIV prevention. Qualitative themes explaining future PrEP adoption included: (1) the opportunity to engage in sex using a noncondom HIV prevention method, (2) protection from HIV infection, and (3) less anxiety when engaging in sex with an HIV-positive partner. Associated with the future adoption of PrEP, a majority (64%) of participants indicated the likelihood for an increase in sexual risk behaviors and a majority (60%) of participants also indicated the likelihood for a decrease or abandonment of condom use, both of which are in contrast to the findings from the large iPrEx study. These findings suggest that the use of PrEP by HIV-negative GBM in serodiscordant relationships carries with it the potential for risk compensation. The findings suggest that PrEP only be offered as part of a comprehensive HIV prevention strategy that includes ongoing risk reduction counseling in the delivery of PrEP to help moderate risk compensation.

Educational trajectories of graduate students in physics education research

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Van Dusen, Ben; Barthelemy, Ramón S.; Henderson, Charles

2014-12-01

Physics education research (PER) is a rapidly growing area of PhD specialization. In this article we examine the trajectories that led respondents into a PER graduate program as well as their expected future trajectories. Data were collected in the form of an online survey sent to graduate students in PER. Our findings show a lack of visibility of PER as a field of study, a dominance of work at the undergraduate level, and a mismatch of future desires and expectations. We suggest that greater exposure is needed so PER is known as a field of inquiry for graduates, that more emphasis should be placed on research beyond the undergraduate level, and that there needs to be stronger communication to graduate students about potential careers.

Relaxin-2 in Cardiometabolic Diseases: Mechanisms of Action and Future Perspectives

PubMed Central

Feijóo-Bandín, Sandra; Aragón-Herrera, Alana; Rodríguez-Penas, Diego; Portolés, Manuel; Roselló-Lletí, Esther; Rivera, Miguel; González-Juanatey, José R.; Lago, Francisca

2017-01-01

Despite the great effort of the medical community during the last decades, cardiovascular diseases remain the leading cause of death worldwide, increasing their prevalence every year mainly due to our new way of life. In the last years, the study of new hormones implicated in the regulation of energy metabolism and inflammation has raised a great interest among the scientific community regarding their implications in the development of cardiometabolic diseases. In this review, we will summarize the main actions of relaxin, a pleiotropic hormone that was previously suggested to improve acute heart failure and that participates in both metabolism and inflammation regulation at cardiovascular level, and will discuss its potential as future therapeutic target to prevent/reduce cardiovascular diseases. PMID:28868039

A Community Assessmet of Biosignatures and their Frameworks

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Domagal-Goldman, Shawn David; Nexus for Exoplanet Systems Science (NExSS)

2018-01-01

The Nexus for Exoplanet Systems Science (NExSS) organized a workshop to assess the current state of exoplanet biosignature research. Here, we review the products from that workshop. This includes: 1) a review of previously-proposed biosignatures in both the atmosphere and on the sruface of an exoplanet; 2) the need for context in assessing those biosignatures; 3) the potential for a Bayesian framework to formalize and quantify the need for context; 4) the interdisciplinary research required to advance that Bayesian framework; and 5) the missions that would search for biosignatures, including required contextual observations. Here we will revie those findings, the future path for research they suggest, and the implications they have for future missions, including both ground- and space-based missions.

The Matrix Element Method: Past, Present, and Future

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Gainer, James S.; Lykken, Joseph; Matchev, Konstantin T.

2013-07-12

The increasing use of multivariate methods, and in particular the Matrix Element Method (MEM), represents a revolution in experimental particle physics. With continued exponential growth in computing capabilities, the use of sophisticated multivariate methods-- already common-- will soon become ubiquitous and ultimately almost compulsory. While the existence of sophisticated algorithms for disentangling signal and background might naively suggest a diminished role for theorists, the use of the MEM, with its inherent connection to the calculation of differential cross sections will benefit from collaboration between theorists and experimentalists. In this white paper, we will briefly describe the MEM and some ofmore » its recent uses, note some current issues and potential resolutions, and speculate about exciting future opportunities.« less

Space exploration initiative candidate nuclear propulsion test facilities

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Baldwin, Darrell; Clark, John S.

1993-01-01

One-page descriptions for approximately 200 existing government, university, and industry facilities which may be available in the future to support SEI nuclear propulsion technology development and test program requirements are provided. To facilitate use of the information, the candidate facilities are listed both by location (Index L) and by Facility Type (Index FT). The included one-page descriptions provide a brief narrative description of facility capability, suggest potential uses for each facility, and designate a point of contact for additional information that may be needed in the future. The Nuclear Propulsion Office at NASA Lewis presently plans to maintain, expand, and update this information periodically for use by NASA, DOE, and DOD personnel involved in planning various phases of the SEI Nuclear Propulsion Project.

Agmatine improves locomotor function and reduces tissue damage following spinal cord injury.

PubMed

Yu, C G; Marcillo, A E; Fairbanks, C A; Wilcox, G L; Yezierski, R P

2000-09-28

Clinically effective drug treatments for spinal cord injury (SCI) remain unavailable. Agmatine, an NMDA receptor antagonist and inhibitor of nitric oxide synthase (NOS), is an endogenous neuromodulator found in the brain and spinal cord. Evidence is presented that agmatine significantly improves locomotor function and reduces tissue damage following traumatic SCI in rats. The results suggest the importance of future therapeutic strategies encompassing the use of single drugs with multiple targets for the treatment of acute SCI. The therapeutic targets of agmatine (NMDA receptor and NOS) have been shown to be critically linked to the pathophysiological sequelae of CNS injury and this, combined with the non-toxic profile, lends support to agmatine being considered as a potential candidate for future clinical applications.

Coral reef ecosystem decline: changing dynamics of coral reef carbonate production and implications for reef growth potential

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Perry, Chris

2016-04-01

Global-scale deteriorations in coral reef health have caused major shifts in species composition and are likely to be exacerbated by climate change. It has been suggested that one effect of these ecological changes will be to lower reef carbonate production rates, which will impair reef growth potential and, ultimately, may lead to states of net reef erosion. However, quantitative data to support such assertions are limited, and linkages between the ecological state of coral reefs and their past and present geomorphic performance (in other words their growth potential) are poorly resolved. Using recently collected data from sites in the Caribbean and Indian Ocean, and which have undergone very different post-disturbance ecological trajectories over the last ~20-30 years, the differential impacts of disturbance on contemporary carbonate production regimes and on reef growth potential can be explored. In the Caribbean, a region which has been severely impacted ecological over the last 30+ years, our datasets show that average carbonate production rates on reefs are now less than 50% of pre-disturbance rates, and that calculated accretion rates (mm yr-1) are an about order of magnitude lower within shallow water habitats compared to Holocene averages. Collectively, these data suggest that recent ecological declines are now propagating through the system to impact on the geomorphic performance of Caribbean reefs and will impair their future growth potential. In contrast, the carbonate budgets of most reefs across the Chagos archipelago (central Indian Ocean), which is geographically remote and largely isolated from direct human disturbances, have recovered rapidly from major past disturbances (specifically the 1998 coral bleaching event). The carbonate budgets on these remote reefs now average +3.7 G (G = kg CaCO3 m-2 yr-1). Most significantly the production rates on Acropora-dominated reefs, which were most severely impacted by the 1998 bleaching event, average +8.4 G, comparable with estimates under pre-human disturbance conditions, and are reflected in high reef growth rates (4.2 mm yr-1). These reefs thus retain the capacity to grow at rates exceeding measured regional mid-late Holocene and 20th century sea-level rise, and close to IPCC sea-level rise projections through to 2100. However, their positive growth potential is strongly tied to the persistence of several key coral species, and thus the frequency and magnitude of future disturbance events will be key determinants of near-future reef growth.

Prenatal determinants of optic nerve hypoplasia: Review of suggested correlates and future focus

PubMed Central

Garcia-Filion, Pamela; Borchert, Mark

2013-01-01

Optic nerve hypoplasia (ONH), a congenital malformation characterized by an underdeveloped optic nerve, is a seemingly epidemic cause of childhood blindness and visual impairment with associated lifelong morbidity. While the prenatal determinants of ONH are unknown, early case reports have led to a longstanding speculation that risky health behaviors (e.g. recreational drugs, alcohol) are a likely culprit. There has yet to be a systematic review of the epidemiology of ONH to assess the common prenatal features that may help focus research efforts in the identification of likely prenatal correlates. A review of the past 50 years of epidemiologic research was conducted to examine the prenatal features linked with ONH and provide direction for future research. There are select prominent prenatal features associated with ONH: young maternal age and primiparity. Commonly implicated prenatal exposures (e.g., recreational or pharmaceutical drugs, viral infection, etc.) were rare or uncommon in large cohort studies of ONH and therefore unlikely to be major contributors to ONH. Familial cases and gene mutations are rare. The preponderance of young mothers and primiparity among cases of ONH is striking, although the significance is unclear. Recent research suggests a potential role for prenatal nutrition, weight gain, and factors of deprivation. With the rapidly increasing prevalence of ONH, future research should focus on investigating the relevance of young maternal age and primiparity and exploring the recently suggested etiologic correlates in epidemic clusters of ONH. PMID:24160732

Can Perceptuo-Motor Skills Assessment Outcomes in Young Table Tennis Players (7–11 years) Predict Future Competition Participation and Performance? An Observational Prospective Study

PubMed Central

2016-01-01

Forecasting future performance in youth table tennis players based on current performance is complex due to, among other things, differences between youth players in growth, development, maturity, context and table tennis experience. Talent development programmes might benefit from an assessment of underlying perceptuo-motor skills for table tennis, which is hypothesized to determine the players’ potential concerning the perceptuo-motor domain. The Dutch perceptuo-motor skills assessment intends to measure the perceptuo-motor potential for table tennis in youth players by assessing the underlying skills crucial for developing technical and tactical qualities. Untrained perceptuo-motor tasks are used as these are suggested to represent a player’s future potential better than specific sport skills themselves as the latter depend on exposure to the sport itself. This study evaluated the value of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment for a talent developmental programme by evaluating its predictive validity for competition participation and performance in 48 young table tennis players (7–11 years). Players were tested on their perceptuo-motor skills once during a regional talent day, and the subsequent competition results were recorded half-yearly over a period of 2.5 years. Logistic regression analysis showed that test scores did not predict future competition participation (p >0.05). Yet, the Generalized Estimating Equations analysis, including the test items ‘aiming at target’, ‘throwing a ball’, and ‘eye-hand coordination’ in the best fitting model, revealed that the outcomes of the perceptuo-motor skills assessment were significant predictors for future competition results (R2 = 51%). Since the test age influences the perceptuo-motor skills assessment’s outcome, another multivariable model was proposed including test age as a covariate (R2 = 53%). This evaluation demonstrates promising prospects for the perceptuo-motor skills assessment to be included in a talent development programme. Future studies are needed to clarify the predictive value in a larger sample of youth competition players over a longer period in time. PMID:26863212

Malaria vectors in South America: current and future scenarios.

PubMed

Laporta, Gabriel Zorello; Linton, Yvonne-Marie; Wilkerson, Richard C; Bergo, Eduardo Sterlino; Nagaki, Sandra Sayuri; Sant'Ana, Denise Cristina; Sallum, Maria Anice Mureb

2015-08-19

Malaria remains a significant public health issue in South America. Future climate change may influence the distribution of the disease, which is dependent on the distribution of those Anopheles mosquitoes competent to transmit Plasmodium falciparum. Herein, predictive niche models of the habitat suitability for P. falciparum, the current primary vector Anopheles darlingi and nine other known and/or potential vector species of the Neotropical Albitarsis Complex, were used to document the current situation and project future scenarios under climate changes in South America in 2070. To build each ecological niche model, we employed topography, climate and biome, and the currently defined distribution of P. falciparum, An. darlingi and nine species comprising the Albitarsis Complex in South America. Current and future (i.e., 2070) distributions were forecast by projecting the fitted ecological niche model onto the current environmental situation and two scenarios of simulated climate change. Statistical analyses were performed between the parasite and each vector in both the present and future scenarios to address potential vector roles in the dynamics of malaria transmission. Current distributions of malaria vector species were associated with that of P. falciparum, confirming their role in transmission, especially An. darlingi, An. marajoara and An. deaneorum. Projected climate changes included higher temperatures, lower water availability and biome modifications. Regardless of future scenarios considered, the geographic distribution of P. falciparum was exacerbated in 2070 South America, with the distribution of the pathogen covering 35-46% of the continent. As the current primary vector An. darlingi showed low tolerance for drier environments, the projected climate change would significantly reduce suitable habitat, impacting both its distribution and abundance. Conversely, climate generalist members of the Albitarsis Complex showed significant spatial and temporal expansion potential in 2070, and we conclude these species will become more important in the dynamics of malaria transmission in South America. Our data suggest that climate and landscape effects will elevate the importance of members of the Albitarsis Complex in malaria transmission in South America in 2070, highlighting the need for further studies addressing the bionomics, ecology and behaviours of the species comprising the Albitarsis Complex.

Integrating future scenario‐based crop expansion and crop conditions to map switchgrass biofuel potential in eastern Nebraska, USA

USGS Publications Warehouse

Gu, Yingxin; Wylie, Bruce K.

2018-01-01

Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) has been evaluated as one potential source for cellulosic biofuel feedstocks. Planting switchgrass in marginal croplands and waterway buffers can reduce soil erosion, improve water quality, and improve regional ecosystem services (i.e. it serves as a potential carbon sink). In previous studies, we mapped high risk marginal croplands and highly erodible cropland buffers that are potentially suitable for switchgrass development, which would improve ecosystem services and minimally impact food production. In this study, we advance our previous study results and integrate future crop expansion information to develop a switchgrass biofuel potential ensemble map for current and future croplands in eastern Nebraska. The switchgrass biomass productivity and carbon benefits (i.e. NEP: net ecosystem production) for the identified biofuel potential ensemble areas were quantified. The future scenario‐based (‘A1B’) land use and land cover map for 2050, the US Geological Survey crop type and Compound Topographic Index (CTI) maps, and long‐term (1981–2010) averaged annual precipitation data were used to identify future crop expansion regions that are suitable for switchgrass development. Results show that 2528 km2 of future crop expansion regions (~3.6% of the study area) are potentially suitable for switchgrass development. The total estimated biofuel potential ensemble area (including cropland buffers, marginal croplands, and future crop expansion regions) is 4232 km2 (~6% of the study area), potentially producing 3.52 million metric tons of switchgrass biomass per year. Converting biofuel ensemble regions to switchgrass leads to potential carbon sinks (the total NEP for biofuel potential areas is 0.45 million metric tons C) and is environmentally sustainable. Results from this study improve our understanding of environmental conditions and ecosystem services of current and future cropland systems in eastern Nebraska and provide useful information to land managers to make land use decisions regarding switchgrass development.

Genetic Diversity and Ecological Niche Modelling of Wild Barley: Refugia, Large-Scale Post-LGM Range Expansion and Limited Mid-Future Climate Threats?

PubMed Central

Russell, Joanne; van Zonneveld, Maarten; Dawson, Ian K.; Booth, Allan; Waugh, Robbie; Steffenson, Brian

2014-01-01

Describing genetic diversity in wild barley (Hordeum vulgare ssp. spontaneum) in geographic and environmental space in the context of current, past and potential future climates is important for conservation and for breeding the domesticated crop (Hordeum vulgare ssp. vulgare). Spatial genetic diversity in wild barley was revealed by both nuclear- (2,505 SNP, 24 nSSR) and chloroplast-derived (5 cpSSR) markers in 256 widely-sampled geo-referenced accessions. Results were compared with MaxEnt-modelled geographic distributions under current, past (Last Glacial Maximum, LGM) and mid-term future (anthropogenic scenario A2, the 2080s) climates. Comparisons suggest large-scale post-LGM range expansion in Central Asia and relatively small, but statistically significant, reductions in range-wide genetic diversity under future climate. Our analyses support the utility of ecological niche modelling for locating genetic diversity hotspots and determine priority geographic areas for wild barley conservation under anthropogenic climate change. Similar research on other cereal crop progenitors could play an important role in tailoring conservation and crop improvement strategies to support future human food security. PMID:24505252

Evaluating water quality ecosystem services of wetlands under historic and future climate

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Records, R.; Arabi, M.; Fassnacht, S. R.; Duffy, W.; Ahmadi, M.; Hegewisch, K.

2013-12-01

Potential hydrologic effects of climate change have been assessed extensively; however, possible impacts of changing climate on in-stream water quality at the watershed scale have received little study. We assessed potential impacts of climate change on water quantity and quality in the mountainous Sprague River watershed, Oregon, USA, where high total phosphorus (TP) and sediment loads are associated with lake eutrophication and mortality of endangered fish species. Additionally, we analyzed water quality impacts of wetland and riparian zone loss and gain under present-day climate and future climate scenarios. We utilized the hydrologic model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) forced with six distinct climate scenarios derived from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) General Circulation Models to assess magnitude and direction of trends in streamflow, sediment and TP fluxes in the mid-21st century (2030-2059). Model results showed little significant trend in average annual streamflow under most climate scenarios, but trends in annual and monthly streamflow, sediment, and TP fluxes were more pronounced and were generally increasing. Results also suggest that future loss of present-day wetlands and riparian zones under land use or climatic change could result in substantial increases in sediment and TP loads at the Sprague River outlet.

Sleep Disturbances in Adolescents with ADHD: A Systematic Review and Framework for Future Research

PubMed Central

Lunsford-Avery, Jessica R.; Krystal, Andrew D.; Kollins, Scott H.

2016-01-01

Background Biological mechanisms underlying symptom and prognostic heterogeneity in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) are unclear. Sleep impacts neurocognition and daytime functioning and is disrupted in ADHD, yet little is known about sleep in ADHD during adolescence, a period characterized by alterations in sleep, brain structure, and environmental demands as well as diverging ADHD trajectories. Methods A systematic review identified studies published prior to August 2016 assessing sleep in adolescents (aged 10–19 years) with ADHD or participating in population-based studies measuring ADHD symptoms. Results Twenty-five studies were identified (19 subjective report, 6 using actigraphy/polysomnography). Findings are mixed but overall suggest associations between sleep disturbances and 1) ADHD symptoms in the population and 2) poorer clinical, neurocognitive, and functional outcomes among adolescents with ADHD. Common limitations of studies included small or non-representative samples, non-standardized sleep measures, and cross-sectional methodology. Conclusions Current data on sleep in adolescent ADHD are sparse and limited by methodological concerns. Future studies are critical for clarifying a potential role of sleep in contributing to heterogeneity of ADHD presentation and prognosis. Potential mechanisms by which sleep disturbances during adolescence may contribute to worsened symptom severity and persistence of ADHD into adulthood and an agenda to guide future research are discussed. PMID:27969004

Breastfeeding and Postpartum Depression: An Overview and Methodological Recommendations for Future Research

PubMed Central

Pope, Carley J.; Mazmanian, Dwight

2016-01-01

Emerging research suggests that a relationship exists between breastfeeding and postpartum depression; however, the direction and precise nature of this relationship are not yet clear. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the relationship between breastfeeding and postpartum depression as it has been examined in the empirical literature. Also, the potential mechanisms of action that have been implicated in this relationship are also explored. PubMed and PsycINFO were searched using the keywords: breastfeeding with postpartum depression, perinatal depression, postnatal depression. Results of this search showed that researchers have examined this relationship in diverse ways using diverse methodology. In particular, researchers have examined the relationships between postpartum depression and breastfeeding intention, initiation, duration, and dose. Due to a number of methodological differences among past studies we make some recommendations for future research that will better facilitate an integration of findings. Future research should (1) use standardized assessment protocols; (2) confirm diagnosis through established clinical interview when possible; (3) provide a clear operationalized definition for breastfeeding variables; (4) clearly define the postpartum period interval assessed and time frame for onset of symptoms; (5) be prospective or longitudinal in nature; and (6) take into consideration other potential risk factors identified in the empirical literature. PMID:27148457

Early management of patients with acute heart failure: state of the art and future directions. A consensus document from the society for academic emergency medicine/heart failure society of America acute heart failure working group.

PubMed

Collins, Sean; Storrow, Alan B; Albert, Nancy M; Butler, Javed; Ezekowitz, Justin; Felker, G Michael; Fermann, Gregory J; Fonarow, Gregg C; Givertz, Michael M; Hiestand, Brian; Hollander, Judd E; Lanfear, David E; Levy, Phillip D; Pang, Peter S; Peacock, W Frank; Sawyer, Douglas B; Teerlink, John R; Lenihan, Daniel J

2015-01-01

Heart failure (HF) afflicts nearly 6 million Americans, resulting in one million emergency department (ED) visits and over one million annual hospital discharges. An aging population and improved survival from cardiovascular diseases is expected to further increase HF prevalence. Emergency providers play a significant role in the management of patients with acute heart failure (AHF). It is crucial that emergency physicians and other providers involved in early management understand the latest developments in diagnostic testing, therapeutics and alternatives to hospitalization. Further, clinical trials must be conducted in the ED in order to improve the evidence base and drive optimal initial therapy for AHF. Should ongoing and future studies suggest early phenotype-driven therapy improves in-hospital and post-discharge outcomes, ED treatment decisions will need to evolve accordingly. The potential impact of future studies which incorporate risk-stratification into ED disposition decisions cannot be underestimated. Predictive instruments that identify a cohort of patients safe for ED discharge, while simultaneously addressing barriers to successful outpatient management, have the potential to significantly impact quality of life and resource expenditures. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Simulating reading acquisition: The link between reading outcome and multimodal brain signatures of letter-speech sound learning in prereaders.

PubMed

Karipidis, Iliana I; Pleisch, Georgette; Brandeis, Daniel; Roth, Alexander; Röthlisberger, Martina; Schneebeli, Maya; Walitza, Susanne; Brem, Silvia

2018-05-08

During reading acquisition, neural reorganization of the human brain facilitates the integration of letters and speech sounds, which enables successful reading. Neuroimaging and behavioural studies have established that impaired audiovisual integration of letters and speech sounds is a core deficit in individuals with developmental dyslexia. This longitudinal study aimed to identify neural and behavioural markers of audiovisual integration that are related to future reading fluency. We simulated the first step of reading acquisition by performing artificial-letter training with prereading children at risk for dyslexia. Multiple logistic regressions revealed that our training provides new precursors of reading fluency at the beginning of reading acquisition. In addition, an event-related potential around 400 ms and functional magnetic resonance imaging activation patterns in the left planum temporale to audiovisual correspondences improved cross-validated prediction of future poor readers. Finally, an exploratory analysis combining simultaneously acquired electroencephalography and hemodynamic data suggested that modulation of temporoparietal brain regions depended on future reading skills. The multimodal approach demonstrates neural adaptations to audiovisual integration in the developing brain that are related to reading outcome. Despite potential limitations arising from the restricted sample size, our results may have promising implications both for identifying poor-reading children and for monitoring early interventions.

Wireworms’ Management: An Overview of the Existing Methods, with Particular Regards to Agriotes spp. (Coleoptera: Elateridae)

PubMed Central

Barsics, Fanny; Haubruge, Eric; Verheggen, François J.

2013-01-01

Wireworms (Coleoptera: Elateridae) are important soil dwelling pests worldwide causing yield losses in many crops. The progressive restrictions in the matter of efficient synthetic chemicals for health and environmental care brought out the need for alternative management techniques. This paper summarizes the main potential tools that have been studied up to now and that could be applied together in integrated pest management systems and suggests guidelines for future research. PMID:26466799

Evaluation of the LIVE/DEAD BacLight Kit for Detection of Extremophilic Archaea and Visualization of Microorganisms in Environmental Hypersaline Samples

PubMed Central

Leuko, Stefan; Legat, Andrea; Fendrihan, Sergiu; Stan-Lotter, Helga

2004-01-01

Extremophilic archaea were stained with the LIVE/DEAD BacLight kit under conditions of high ionic strength and over a pH range of 2.0 to 9.3. The reliability of the kit was tested with haloarchaea following permeabilization of the cells. Microorganisms in hypersaline environmental samples were detectable with the kit, which suggests its potential application to future extraterrestrial halites. PMID:15528557

Are mobile health applications useful for supporting shared decision making in diagnostic and treatment decisions?

PubMed Central

Abbasgholizadeh Rahimi, Samira; Menear, Matthew; Robitaille, Hubert; Légaré, France

2017-01-01

ABSTRACT Mobile health (mHealth) applications intended to support shared decision making in diagnostic and treatment decisions are increasingly available. In this paper, we discuss some recent studies on mHealth applications with relevance to shared decision making. We discuss the potential advantages and disadvantages of using mHealth in shared decision making in various contexts, and suggest some directions for future research in this quickly expanding field. PMID:28838306

Identification and Characterization of Genomic Amplifications in Ovarian Serous Carcinoma

DTIC Science & Technology

2009-07-01

oncogenes, Rsf1 and Notch3, which were up-regulated in both genomic DNA and transcript levels in ovarian cancer. In a large- scale FISH analysis, Rsf1...associated with worse disease outcome, suggesting that Rsf1 could be potentially used as a prognostic marker in the future (Appendix #1). For the...over- expressed in a recurrent carcinoma. Although the follow-up study in a larger- scale sample size did not demonstrate clear amplification in NAC1

Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Trajectories and challenges

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Haegel, Nancy M.; Margolis, Robert; Buonassisi, Tonio

The annual potential of solar energy far exceeds the world's total energy consumption. However, the vision of photovoltaics (PVs) providing a substantial fraction of global electricity generation and total energy demand is far from being realized. What technical, infrastructure, economic, and policy barriers need to be overcome for PVs to grow to the multiple terawatt (TW) scale? Here, we assess realistic future scenarios and make suggestions for a global agenda to move toward PVs at a multi-TW scale.

The C130 Hercules Acquisition Program: A Case Study of the Potential Impact of a System Level Warranty Application.

DTIC Science & Technology

1986-09-01

Orfice in the Aeronautical Systems Division, and the Air Force Contract Law Center, provided support that ensured success from the very start. Last, but...76 Recommendations for Future Researcn ........ .. 79 Appendix A: Air Force Contract Law Center Suggested Systems Level Warranty...analysis of the findings was accomplisned by the Air Force Contract Law Center.’ Benefits from applying a system level warranty to the C-hiO were

Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Trajectories and challenges

DOE PAGES

Haegel, Nancy M.; Margolis, Robert; Buonassisi, Tonio; ...

2017-04-13

The annual potential of solar energy far exceeds the world's total energy consumption. However, the vision of photovoltaics (PVs) providing a substantial fraction of global electricity generation and total energy demand is far from being realized. What technical, infrastructure, economic, and policy barriers need to be overcome for PVs to grow to the multiple terawatt (TW) scale? Here, we assess realistic future scenarios and make suggestions for a global agenda to move toward PVs at a multi-TW scale.

A system to improve medication safety in the setting of acute kidney injury: initial provider response.

PubMed

McCoy, Allison B; McCoy, Allison Beck; Peterson, Josh F; Gadd, Cynthia S; Gadd, Cindy; Danciu, Ioana; Waitman, Lemuel R

2008-11-06

Clinical decision support systems can decrease common errors related to inappropriate or excessive dosing for nephrotoxic or renally cleared drugs. We developed a comprehensive medication safety intervention with varying levels of workflow intrusiveness within computerized provider order entry to continuously monitor for and alert providers about early-onset acute kidney injury. Initial provider response to the interventions shows potential success in improving medication safety and suggests future enhancements to increase effectiveness.

The potential role for a pharmacist in a multidisciplinary general practitioner super clinic.

PubMed

Bajorek, Beata; LeMay, Kate; Gunn, Kate; Armour, Carol

2015-01-01

The Australian government's General Practitioner (GP) super clinics programme aims to provide well-integrated, multidisciplinary, patient-centred care for people with chronic disease. However, there is no research into the current role of pharmacists in this setting. To explore the perspectives of GP super clinic staff on current and potential (future) pharmacist-led services provided in this setting. Individual interviews (facilitated using a semi-structured interview guide and thematically analysed) were conducted with purposively sampled staff of a GP super clinic in a semirural location in the state of New South Wales, until theme saturation. Participating staff included (n=9): three GPs, one pharmacist, one nurse, one business manager, and three reception staff. Three themes emerged conveying perspectives on: working relationships between staff; a pharmacist's current role; and potential future roles for a pharmacist. All clinic staff actively engaged the pharmacist in their "team approach". Currently established roles for home medicines reviews (HMRs) and drug information were well supported, but needed to be expanded, for example, with formalised case conferences between GPs, pharmacists, and other staff. New roles needed be explored in auditing medication use, optimising medication records, specialised drug information, dispensing, and prescribing. Although GPs had differing views about opportunities for pharmacists' prescribing in this setting, they saw several benefits to this service, such as reducing the time pressure on GPs to enable more effective consultations. Results suggest a pharmacist's services can potentially be better used within the multidisciplinary super clinic model of care to address current gaps within the semi-rural practice setting. Any future role for the pharmacist could be addressed as part of a formalised, strategic approach to creating an integrated healthcare team, with attention to funding and government legislation.

Analyzing the responses of species assemblages to climate change across the Great Basin, USA.

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Henareh Khalyani, A.; Falkowski, M. J.; Crookston, N.; Yousef, F.

2016-12-01

The potential impacts of climate change on the future distribution of tree species in not well understood. Climate driven changes in tree species distribution could cause significant changes in realized species niches, potentially resulting in the loss of ecotonal species as well as the formation on novel assemblages of overlapping tree species. In an effort to gain a better understating of how the geographic distribution of tree species may respond to climate change, we model the potential future distribution of 50 different tree species across 70 million ha in the Great Basin, USA. This is achieved by leveraging a species realized niche model based on non-parametric analysis of species occurrences across climatic, topographic, and edaphic variables. Spatially explicit, high spatial resolution (30 m) climate variables (e.g., precipitation, and minimum, maximum, and mean temperature) and associated climate indices were generated on an annual basis between 1981-2010 by integrating climate station data with digital elevation data (Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) data) in a thin plate spline interpolation algorithm (ANUSPLIN). Bioclimate models of species niches in in the cotemporary period and three following 30 year periods were then generated by integrating the climate variables, soil data, and CMIP 5 general circulation model projections. Our results suggest that local scale contemporary variations in species realized niches across space are influenced by edaphic and topographic variables as well as climatic variables. The local variability in soil properties and topographic variability across space also affect the species responses to climate change through time and potential formation of species assemblages in future. The results presented here in will aid in the development of adaptive forest management techniques aimed at mitigating negative impacts of climate change on forest composition, structure, and function.

Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) and disordered eating behaviour: A systematic review and a framework for future research.

PubMed

Kaisari, Panagiota; Dourish, Colin T; Higgs, Suzanne

2017-04-01

Preliminary findings suggest that Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) may be associated with disordered eating behaviour, but whether there is sufficient evidence to suggest an association between ADHD and specific types of disordered eating behaviour is unclear. Furthermore, it is uncertain whether specific features associated with ADHD are differentially associated with disordered eating behaviour. A systematic review of seventy-five studies was conducted to evaluate the potential association between ADHD symptomatology and disordered eating behaviour and to provide an estimate of the strength of evidence for any association. Overall, a moderate strength of evidence exists for a positive association between ADHD and disordered eating and with specific types of disordered-eating behaviour, in particular, overeating behaviour. There is consistent evidence that impulsivity symptoms of ADHD are positively associated with overeating and bulimia nervosa and more limited evidence for an association between hyperactivity symptoms and restrictive eating in males but not females. Further research is required to assess the potential direction of the relationship between ADHD and disordered eating, the underlying mechanisms and the role of specific ADHD symptoms in the development and/or maintenance of disordered eating behaviour. We propose a framework that could be used to guide the design of future studies. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Conservation assessments in climate change scenarios: spatial perspectives for present and future in two Pristidactylus (Squamata: Leiosauridae) lizards from Argentina.

PubMed

Minoli, Ignacio; Avila, Luciano Javier

2017-02-26

The consequences of global climate change can already be seen in many physical and biological systems and these effects could change the distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms to the middle of this century. We analyzed the current habitat use and we projected the suitable area of present conditions into the geographical space of future scenarios (2050), to assess and quantify whether future climate change would affect the distribution and size of suitable environments in two Pristidactylus lizard species. Comparing the habitat use and future forecasts of the two studied species, P. achalensis showed a more restricted use of available resource units (RUs) and a moderate reduction of the potential future area. On the contrary, P. nigroiugulus uses more available RUs and has a considerable area decrease for both future scenarios. These results suggest that both species have a moderately different trend towards reducing available area of suitable habitats, the persistent localities for both 2050 CO2 concentration models, and in the available RUs used. We discussed the relation between size and use of the current habitat, changes in future projections along with the protected areas from present-future and the usefulness of these results in conservation plans. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their availability suitable areas as a consequence of the effect of future climate change.

Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

PubMed Central

Xu, Zhonglin; Feng, Zhaodong; Yang, Jianjun; Zheng, Jianghua; Zhang, Fang

2013-01-01

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas. PMID:23923020

Future Declines of Coronary Heart Disease Mortality in England and Wales Could Counter the Burden of Population Ageing

PubMed Central

Guzman Castillo, Maria; Gillespie, Duncan O. S.; Allen, Kirk; Bandosz, Piotr; Schmid, Volker; Capewell, Simon; O’Flaherty, Martin

2014-01-01

Background Coronary Heart Disease (CHD) remains a major cause of mortality in the United Kingdom. Yet predictions of future CHD mortality are potentially problematic due to population ageing and increase in obesity and diabetes. Here we explore future projections of CHD mortality in England & Wales under two contrasting future trend assumptions. Methods In scenario A, we used the conventional counterfactual scenario that the last-observed CHD mortality rates from 2011 would persist unchanged to 2030. The future number of deaths was calculated by applying those rates to the 2012–2030 population estimates. In scenario B, we assumed that the recent falling trend in CHD mortality rates would continue. Using Lee-Carter and Bayesian Age Period Cohort (BAPC) models, we projected the linear trends up to 2030. We validate our methods using past data to predict mortality from 2002–2011. Then, we computed the error between observed and projected values. Results In scenario A, assuming that 2011 mortality rates stayed constant by 2030, the number of CHD deaths would increase 62% or approximately 39,600 additional deaths. In scenario B, assuming recent declines continued, the BAPC model (the model with lowest error) suggests the number of deaths will decrease by 56%, representing approximately 36,200 fewer deaths by 2030. Conclusions The decline in CHD mortality has been reasonably continuous since 1979, and there is little reason to believe it will soon halt. The commonly used assumption that mortality will remain constant from 2011 therefore appears slightly dubious. By contrast, using the BAPC model and assuming continuing mortality falls offers a more plausible prediction of future trends. Thus, despite population ageing, the number of CHD deaths might halve again between 2011 and 2030. This has implications for how the potential benefits of future cardiovascular strategies might best be calculated and presented. PMID:24918442

Global environmental change effects on ecosystems: the importance of land-use legacies.

PubMed

Perring, Michael P; De Frenne, Pieter; Baeten, Lander; Maes, Sybryn L; Depauw, Leen; Blondeel, Haben; Carón, María M; Verheyen, Kris

2016-04-01

One of the major challenges in ecology is to predict how multiple global environmental changes will affect future ecosystem patterns (e.g. plant community composition) and processes (e.g. nutrient cycling). Here, we highlight arguments for the necessary inclusion of land-use legacies in this endeavour. Alterations in resources and conditions engendered by previous land use, together with influences on plant community processes such as dispersal, selection, drift and speciation, have steered communities and ecosystem functions onto trajectories of change. These trajectories may be modulated by contemporary environmental changes such as climate warming and nitrogen deposition. We performed a literature review which suggests that these potential interactions have rarely been investigated. This crucial oversight is potentially due to an assumption that knowledge of the contemporary state allows accurate projection into the future. Lessons from other complex dynamic systems, and the recent recognition of the importance of previous conditions in explaining contemporary and future ecosystem properties, demand the testing of this assumption. Vegetation resurvey databases across gradients of land use and environmental change, complemented by rigorous experiments, offer a means to test for interactions between land-use legacies and multiple environmental changes. Implementing these tests in the context of a trait-based framework will allow biologists to synthesize compositional and functional ecosystem responses. This will further our understanding of the importance of land-use legacies in determining future ecosystem properties, and soundly inform conservation and restoration management actions. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate changes and wildfire alter vegetation of Yellowstone National Park, but forest cover persists

USGS Publications Warehouse

Clark, Jason A.; Loehman, Rachel A.; Keane, Robert E.

2017-01-01

We present landscape simulation results contrasting effects of changing climates on forest vegetation and fire regimes in Yellowstone National Park, USA, by mid-21st century. We simulated potential changes to fire dynamics and forest characteristics under three future climate projections representing a range of potential future conditions using the FireBGCv2 model. Under the future climate scenarios with moderate warming (>2°C) and moderate increases in precipitation (3–5%), model simulations resulted in 1.2–4.2 times more burned area, decreases in forest cover (10–44%), and reductions in basal area (14–60%). In these same scenarios, lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) decreased in basal area (18–41%), while Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) basal area increased (21–58%). Conversely, mild warming (<2°C) coupled with greater increases in precipitation (12–13%) suggested an increase in forest cover and basal area by mid-century, with spruce and subalpine fir increasing in abundance. Overall, we found changes in forest tree species compositions were caused by the climate-mediated changes in fire regime (56–315% increase in annual area burned). Simulated changes in forest composition and fire regime under warming climates portray a landscape that shifts from lodgepole pine to Douglas-fir caused by the interaction between the magnitude and seasonality of future climate changes, by climate-induced changes in the frequency and intensity of wildfires, and by tree species response.

Planning for a Nondriving Future: Behaviors and Beliefs Among Middle-Aged and Older Drivers.

PubMed

Harmon, Annie C; Babulal, Ganesh; Vivoda, Jonathon M; Zikmund-Fisher, Brian J; Carr, David B

2018-01-01

Despite the reality of older adults living many years after driving cessation, few prepare for the eventuality; empirically, planning for a nondriving future has not been directly quantified or explored. The following study quantifies 1) the extent of current drivers' planning, 2) specific planning behaviors, 3) beliefs about benefits of planning, 4) drivers' intention to plan more for future transportation needs, and 5) group differences associated with planning. In a predominantly female, black, urban sample of current drivers ages 53-92, fewer than half (42.1%) had planned at all for a nondriving future, with correspondingly low levels of planning behaviors reported. However, over 80% believed planning would help them meet their needs post-cessation and transition emotionally to being a nondriver. Most (85%) intended to plan more in the future as well, indicating further potential openness to the topic. Drivers who planned were older, drove less frequently, limited their driving to nearby places, reported less difficulty believing they would become a nondriver, and expected to continue driving three years less than non-planners. These findings suggest that drivers' perceived nearness to driving cessation impacts planning for future transportation needs, and existing perceived benefits of planning may provide leverage to motivate action.

Future vegetation ecosystem response to warming climate over the Tibetan Plateau

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Bao, Y.; Gao, Y.; Wang, Y.

2017-12-01

The amplified vegetation response to climate variability has been found over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades. In this study, the potential impacts of 21st century climate change on the vegetation ecosystem over the TP are assessed based on the dynamic vegetation outputs of models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), and the sensitivity of the TP vegetation in response to warming climate was investigated. Models project a continuous and accelerating greening in future, especially in the eastern TP, which closely associates with the plant type upgrade due to the pronouncing warming in growing season.Vegetation leaf area index (LAI) increase well follows the global warming, suggesting the warming climate instead of co2 fertilization controlls the future TP plant growth. The warming spring may advance the start of green-up day and extend the growing season length. More carbon accumulation in vegetation and soil will intensify the TP carbon cycle and will keep it as a carbon sink in future. Keywords: Leaf Area Index (LAI), Climate Change, Global Dynamic Vegetation Models (DGVMs), CMIP5, Tibetan Plateau (TP)

The Future Orientation of Past Memory: The Role of BA 10 in Prospective and Retrospective Retrieval Modes.

PubMed

Underwood, Adam G; Guynn, Melissa J; Cohen, Anna-Lisa

2015-01-01

Klein made the provocative suggestion that the purpose of human episodic memory is to enable individuals to plan and prepare for the future. In other words, although episodic (retrospective) memory is about the past, it is not actually for the past; it is for the future. Within this focus, a natural subject for investigation is prospective memory, or memory to do things in the future. An important theoretical construct in the fields of both retrospective memory and prospective memory is that of a retrieval mode, or a neurocognitive set or readiness to treat environmental stimuli as potential retrieval cues. This construct was originally introduced in a theory of episodic (retrospective) memory and has more recently been invoked in a theory of how some prospective memory tasks are accomplished. To our knowledge, this construct has not been explicitly compared between the two literatures, and thus this is the purpose of the present article. Although we address the behavioral evidence for each construct, our primary goal is to assess the extent to which each retrieval mode appears to rely on a common neural region. Our review highlights the fact that a particular area of prefrontal cortex (BA 10) appears to play an important role in both retrospective and prospective retrieval modes. We suggest, based on this evidence and these ideas, that prospective memory research could profit from more active exploration of the relevance of theoretical constructs from the retrospective memory literature.

The Future Orientation of Past Memory: The Role of BA 10 in Prospective and Retrospective Retrieval Modes

PubMed Central

Underwood, Adam G.; Guynn, Melissa J.; Cohen, Anna-Lisa

2015-01-01

Klein made the provocative suggestion that the purpose of human episodic memory is to enable individuals to plan and prepare for the future. In other words, although episodic (retrospective) memory is about the past, it is not actually for the past; it is for the future. Within this focus, a natural subject for investigation is prospective memory, or memory to do things in the future. An important theoretical construct in the fields of both retrospective memory and prospective memory is that of a retrieval mode, or a neurocognitive set or readiness to treat environmental stimuli as potential retrieval cues. This construct was originally introduced in a theory of episodic (retrospective) memory and has more recently been invoked in a theory of how some prospective memory tasks are accomplished. To our knowledge, this construct has not been explicitly compared between the two literatures, and thus this is the purpose of the present article. Although we address the behavioral evidence for each construct, our primary goal is to assess the extent to which each retrieval mode appears to rely on a common neural region. Our review highlights the fact that a particular area of prefrontal cortex (BA 10) appears to play an important role in both retrospective and prospective retrieval modes. We suggest, based on this evidence and these ideas, that prospective memory research could profit from more active exploration of the relevance of theoretical constructs from the retrospective memory literature. PMID:26733844

Can conservation funding be left to carbon finance? Evidence from participatory future land use scenarios in Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ravikumar, Ashwin; Larjavaara, Markku; Larson, Anne; Kanninen, Markku

2017-01-01

Revenues derived from carbon have been seen as an important tool for supporting forest conservation over the past decade. At the same time, there is high uncertainty about how much revenue can reasonably be expected from land use emissions reductions initiatives. Despite this uncertainty, REDD+ projects and conservation initiatives that aim to take advantage of available or, more commonly, future funding from carbon markets have proliferated. This study used participatory multi-stakeholder workshops to develop divergent future scenarios of land use in eight landscapes in four countries around the world: Peru, Indonesia, Tanzania, and Mexico. The results of these future scenario building exercises were analyzed using a new tool, CarboScen, for calculating the landscape carbon storage implications of different future land use scenarios. The findings suggest that potential revenues from carbon storage or emissions reductions are significant in some landscapes (most notably the peat forests of Indonesia), and much less significant in others (such as the low-carbon forests of Zanzibar and the interior of Tanzania). The findings call into question the practicality of many conservation programs that hinge on expectations of future revenue from carbon finance. The future scenarios-based approach is useful to policy-makers and conservation program developers in distinguishing between landscapes where carbon finance can substantially support conservation, and landscapes where other strategies for conservation and land use should be prioritized.

Comparison of potential fecundity models for walleye pollock Gadus chalcogrammus in the Pacific waters off Hokkaido, Japan.

PubMed

Tanaka, H; Hamatsu, T; Mori, K

2017-01-01

Potential fecundity models of walleye or Alaska pollock Gadus chalcogrammus in the Pacific waters off Hokkaido, Japan, were developed. They were compared using a generalized linear model with using either standard body length (L S ) or total body mass (M T ) as a main covariate along with Fulton's condition factor (K) and mean diameter of oocytes (D O ) as additional potential covariates to account for maternal conditions and maturity stage. The results of model selection showed that M T was a better single predictor of potential fecundity (F P ) than L S . The biological importance of K on F P was obscure, because it was statistically significant when used in the predictor with L S (i.e. length-based model), but not significant when used with M T (i.e. mass-based model). Meanwhile, D O was statistically significant in both length and mass-based models, suggesting the importance of downregulation on the number of oocytes with advancing maturation. Among all candidate models, the model with M T and D O in the predictor had the lowest Akaike's information criterion value, suggesting its better predictive power. These newly developed models will improve future comparisons of the potential fecundity within and among stocks by excluding potential biases other than body size. © 2016 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

Circulating avian influenza viruses closely related to the 1918 virus have pandemic potential

PubMed Central

Watanabe, Tokiko; Zhong, Gongxun; Russell, Colin A.; Nakajima, Noriko; Hatta, Masato; Hanson, Anthony; McBride, Ryan; Burke, David F.; Takahashi, Kenta; Fukuyama, Satoshi; Tomita, Yuriko; Maher, Eileen A.; Watanabe, Shinji; Imai, Masaki; Neumann, Gabriele; Hasegawa, Hideki; Paulson, James C.; Smith, Derek J.; Kawaoka, Yoshihiro

2014-01-01

Summary Wild birds harbor a large gene pool of influenza A viruses that have the potential to cause influenza pandemics. Foreseeing and understanding this potential is important for effective surveillance. Our phylogenetic and geographic analyses revealed the global prevalence of avian influenza virus genes whose proteins differ only a few amino acids from the 1918 pandemic influenza virus, suggesting that 1918-like pandemic viruses may emerge in the future. To assess this risk, we generated and characterized a virus composed of avian influenza viral segments with high homology to the 1918 virus. This virus exhibited higher pathogenicity in mice and ferrets than an authentic avian influenza virus. Further, acquisition of seven amino acid substitutions in the viral polymerases and the hemagglutinin surface glycoprotein conferred respiratory droplet transmission to the 1918-like avian virus in ferrets, demonstrating that contemporary avian influenza viruses with 1918 virus-like proteins may have pandemic potential. PMID:24922572

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Penev, Michael; Melaina, Marc; Bush, Brian

This report improves on the understanding of the long-term technology potential of low-carbon natural gas (LCNG) supply pathways by exploring transportation market adoption potential through 2035 in California. Techno-economic assessments of each pathway are developed to compare the capacity, cost, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of select LCNG production pathways. The study analyzes the use of fuel from these pathways in light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle applications. Economic and life-cycle GHG emissions analysis suggest that landfill gas resources are an attractive and relatively abundant resource in terms of cost and GHG reduction potential, followed by waste water treatment plants andmore » biomass with gasification and methanation. Total LCNG production potential is on the order of total natural gas demand anticipated in a success scenario for future natural gas vehicle adoption by 2035 across light-, medium-, and heavy-duty vehicle markets (110 trillion Btu/year).« less

Potential sources of variability in mesocosm experiments on the response of phytoplankton to ocean acidification

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Moreno de Castro, Maria; Schartau, Markus; Wirtz, Kai

2017-04-01

Mesocosm experiments on phytoplankton dynamics under high CO2 concentrations mimic the response of marine primary producers to future ocean acidification. However, potential acidification effects can be hindered by the high standard deviation typically found in the replicates of the same CO2 treatment level. In experiments with multiple unresolved factors and a sub-optimal number of replicates, post-processing statistical inference tools might fail to detect an effect that is present. We propose that in such cases, data-based model analyses might be suitable tools to unearth potential responses to the treatment and identify the uncertainties that could produce the observed variability. As test cases, we used data from two independent mesocosm experiments. Both experiments showed high standard deviations and, according to statistical inference tools, biomass appeared insensitive to changing CO2 conditions. Conversely, our simulations showed earlier and more intense phytoplankton blooms in modeled replicates at high CO2 concentrations and suggested that uncertainties in average cell size, phytoplankton biomass losses, and initial nutrient concentration potentially outweigh acidification effects by triggering strong variability during the bloom phase. We also estimated the thresholds below which uncertainties do not escalate to high variability. This information might help in designing future mesocosm experiments and interpreting controversial results on the effect of acidification or other pressures on ecosystem functions.

Neighborhood effects in a behavioral randomized controlled trial.

PubMed

Pruitt, Sandi L; Leonard, Tammy; Murdoch, James; Hughes, Amy; McQueen, Amy; Gupta, Samir

2014-11-01

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of interventions intended to modify health behaviors may be influenced by neighborhood effects which can impede unbiased estimation of intervention effects. Examining a RCT designed to increase colorectal cancer (CRC) screening (N=5628), we found statistically significant neighborhood effects: average CRC test use among neighboring study participants was significantly and positively associated with individual patient's CRC test use. This potentially important spatially-varying covariate has not previously been considered in a RCT. Our results suggest that future RCTs of health behavior interventions should assess potential social interactions between participants, which may cause intervention arm contamination and may bias effect size estimation. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Historical Trauma, Substance Use, and Indigenous Peoples: Seven Generations of Harm From a "Big Event".

PubMed

Nutton, Jennifer; Fast, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

Indigenous peoples the world over have and continue to experience the devastating effects of colonialism including loss of life, land, language, culture, and identity. Indigenous peoples suffer disproportionately across many health risk factors including an increased risk of substance use. We use the term "Big Event" to describe the historical trauma attributed to colonial policies as a potential pathway to explain the disparity in rates of substance use among many Indigenous populations. We present "Big Solutions" that have the potential to buffer the negative effects of the Big Event, including: (1) decolonizing strategies, (2) identity development, and (3) culturally adapted interventions. Study limitations are noted and future needed research is suggested.

Trifluridine/tipiracil: an emerging strategy for the management of gastrointestinal cancers.

PubMed

Peeters, Marc; Cervantes, Andrés; Moreno Vera, Shanti; Taieb, Julien

2018-04-27

Fluoropyrimidines are currently the backbone of treatment for gastrointestinal (GI) cancers but development of resistance to these agents remains a major problem. Trifluridine/tipiracil is an oral chemotherapeutic agent recently approved for third-line treatment of chemorefractory metastatic colorectal cancer. This article reviews the clinical value of trifluridine/tipiracil as a monotherapy, including recent trials in GI cancers, and the potential benefit of combining it with other agents in patients with GI cancers, including the preclinical rationale for combination therapy and recently completed and ongoing clinical trials. Data gathered so far suggest that trifluridine/tipiracil has the potential to form the chemotherapeutic backbone in the continuum of care for GI cancers in the future.

Time perspective as a predictor of smoking status: findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in Scotland, France, Germany, China, and Malaysia.

PubMed

Sansone, Genevieve; Fong, Geoffrey T; Hall, Peter A; Guignard, Romain; Beck, François; Mons, Ute; Pötschke-Langer, Martina; Yong, Hua-Hie; Thompson, Mary E; Omar, Maizurah; Jiang, Yuan

2013-04-15

Prior studies have demonstrated that time perspective-the propensity to consider short-versus long-term consequences of one's actions-is a potentially important predictor of health-related behaviors, including smoking. However, most prior studies have been conducted within single high-income countries. The aim of this study was to examine whether time perspective was associated with the likelihood of being a smoker or non-smoker across five countries that vary in smoking behavior and strength of tobacco control policies. The data were from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in five countries with large probability samples of both smokers (N=10,341) and non-smokers (N=4,955): Scotland, France, Germany, China, and Malaysia. The surveys were conducted between 2005-2008. Survey respondents indicated their smoking status (smoker vs. non-smoker) and time perspective (future oriented vs. not future-oriented) and provided demographic information. Across all five countries, non-smokers were significantly more likely to be future-oriented (66%) than were smokers (57%), χ(2)(1, N = 15,244) = 120.64, p < .001. This bivariate relationship between time perspective and smoking status held in a multivariate analysis. After controlling for country, age, sex, income, education, and ethnicity (language in France), those who were future-oriented had 36% greater odds of being a non-smoker than a smoker (95% CI: 1.22 to 1.51, p<.001). These findings establish time perspective as an important predictor of smoking status across multiple countries and suggest the potential value of incorporating material to enhance future orientation in smoking cessation interventions.

Future water demand in California under a broad range of land use scenarios

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Wilson, T. S.; Sleeter, B. M.; Cameron, D. R.

2016-12-01

California continues to be gripped by the most severe drought on record. Most general circulation models agree the state will continue to warm this century and research suggests persistent, long-term droughts may become the new normal, exacerbating an already uncertain water supply future. Population increases and agricultural intensification will likely stress existing, highly variable inter-annual water supplies even further in coming decades. Using the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model, we explore a wide range of potential water demand futures from 2012 to 2062 based on 8 alternative, spatially-explicit (1 km) land use scenarios and land-use related water demand. Scenarios include low and high rates for urbanization, agricultural expansion, and agricultural contraction as well as lowest and highest rates for the combined suite of anthropogenic land uses. Land change values were sampled from county-level historical (1991-2012) land change data and county-level average water use data for urban areas (i.e. municipal and industrial) and annual and perennial cropland. We modeled 100 Monte Carlo simulations for each scenario to better characterize and capture model uncertainty and a range of potential future outcomes. Results show water demand in Mediterranean California was lowest in the low anthropogenic change scenario, dropping an average 2.7 million acre feet (MAF) by 2062. The highest water demand was seen in the high urbanization (+3.2 MAF), high agricultural expansion (+4.1 MAF), and the high anthropogenic (+4.3 MAF) scenarios. Results provide water managers and policy makers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on observed land change and water use trends, helping better inform land and resource management decisions.

Time perspective as a predictor of smoking status: findings from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in Scotland, France, Germany, China, and Malaysia

PubMed Central

2013-01-01

Background Prior studies have demonstrated that time perspective—the propensity to consider short-versus long-term consequences of one’s actions—is a potentially important predictor of health-related behaviors, including smoking. However, most prior studies have been conducted within single high-income countries. The aim of this study was to examine whether time perspective was associated with the likelihood of being a smoker or non-smoker across five countries that vary in smoking behavior and strength of tobacco control policies. Methods The data were from the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Surveys in five countries with large probability samples of both smokers (N=10,341) and non-smokers (N=4,955): Scotland, France, Germany, China, and Malaysia. The surveys were conducted between 2005–2008. Survey respondents indicated their smoking status (smoker vs. non-smoker) and time perspective (future oriented vs. not future-oriented) and provided demographic information. Results Across all five countries, non-smokers were significantly more likely to be future-oriented (66%) than were smokers (57%), χ2(1, N = 15,244) = 120.64, p < .001. This bivariate relationship between time perspective and smoking status held in a multivariate analysis. After controlling for country, age, sex, income, education, and ethnicity (language in France), those who were future-oriented had 36% greater odds of being a non-smoker than a smoker (95% CI: 1.22 to 1.51, p<.001). Conclusion These findings establish time perspective as an important predictor of smoking status across multiple countries and suggest the potential value of incorporating material to enhance future orientation in smoking cessation interventions. PMID:23587205

The Achilles tendon: fundamental properties and mechanisms governing healing

PubMed Central

Freedman, Benjamin R.; Gordon, Joshua A.; Soslowsky, Louis J.

2014-01-01

Summary This review highlights recent research on Achilles tendon healing, and comments on the current clinical controversy surrounding the diagnosis and treatment of injury. The processes of Achilles tendon healing, as demonstrated through changes in its structure, composition, and biomechanics, are reviewed. Finally, a review of tendon developmental biology and mechano transductive pathways is completed to recognize recent efforts to augment injured Achilles tendons, and to suggest potential future strategies for therapeutic intervention and functional tissue engineering. Despite an abundance of clinical evidence suggesting that current treatments and rehabilitation strategies for Achilles tendon ruptures are equivocal, significant questions remain to fully elucidate the basic science mechanisms governing Achilles tendon injury, healing, treatment, and rehabilitation. PMID:25332943

Future Spacelift Requirements Study

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

1997-01-01

This study addresses future space applications and the derived requirements these potential applications will have on future spacelift systems. This NASA sponsored activity is a comprehensive study of potential missions including those of the military, civil, and commercial users. The study objectively evaluated the key architectural requirements for future launch systems. The results of this study are technical, economic, and policy analyses of future spacelift systems. It is intended to assist NASA and DOD decision-makers in planning technical investments and establishing policy for future U.S. spacelift systems.

Low thrust propulsion literature survey

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Monroe, Darrel

1989-01-01

A literature search was performed to investigate the area of low thrust propulsion. In an effort to evaluate this technology, a number of articles, obtained through the use of the NASA-RECON database, were collected and categorized. The study indicates that although much was done, particularly in the 1960's and 1970's, more can be done in the area of practical navigation and guidance. It is suggested that the older studies be reinvestigated to see what potential there exists for future low thrust applications.

Adapting the SERVQUAL scale to hospital services: an empirical investigation.

PubMed Central

Babakus, E; Mangold, W G

1992-01-01

Defining and measuring the quality of service has been a major challenge for health care marketers. A comprehensive service quality measurement scale (SERVQUAL) is empirically evaluated for its potential usefulness in a hospital service environment. Active participation by hospital management helped to address practical and user-related aspects of the assessment. The completed expectations and perceptions scales met various criteria for reliability and validity. Suggestions are provided for the managerial use of the scale, and a number of future research issues are identified. PMID:1737708

The re-embodiment of bodies, tools, and worlds after spinal cord injury: An intricate picture. Reply to comments on "The embodiment of assistive devices-From wheelchair to exoskeleton"

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Pazzaglia, Mariella; Molinari, Marco

2016-03-01

We thank the commentators for their invaluable interdisciplinary contributions and perspectives and thought-provoking comments. Their suggestions have raised questions and provided insights that will guide future enquiries. Herein, we consider important theoretical ideas proposed by Cole [1]; Ferrara, Tempesta, and De Gennaro [2]; Kannape and Lenggenhager [3]; Longo, Sadibolova, and Tame [4]; Papadimitriou [5]; and Serino [6], alongside additional, potentially conflicting lines of discussion.

Perception of potential nuclear disaster: the relation of likelihood and consequence estimates of risk.

PubMed

Mehta, M D; Simpson-Housley, P

1994-12-01

This study examined the correlations of ratings of expectation of a future disaster in a nuclear power plant and estimation of its consequences in a random sample of 150 adults who lived within two kilometers of a nuclear power plant. Analysis suggested a significant positive but low relation. This finding indicates that risk perception might be explored using constellations of beliefs and attitudes toward hazards without invoking personality characteristics like trait anxiety or demographic variables such as gender.

L factor: hope and fear in the search for extraterrestrial intelligence

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Rubin, Charles T.

2001-08-01

The L factor in the Drake equation is widely understood to account for most of the variance in estimates of the number of extraterrestrial intelligences that might be contacted by the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI). It is also among the hardest to quantify. An examination of discussions of the L factor in the popular and technical SETI literature suggests that attempts to estimate L involve a variety of potentially conflicting assumptions about civilizational lifespan that reflect hopes and fears about the human future.

Imprinted magnetic graphene oxide for the mini-solid phase extraction of Eu (III) from coal mine area

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Patra, Santanu; Roy, Ekta; Madhuri, Rashmi; Sharma, Prashant K.

2017-05-01

The present work represents the preparation of imprinted magnetic reduced graphene oxide and applied it for the selective removal of Eu (III) from local coal mines area. A simple solid phase extraction method was used for this purpose. The material shows a very high adsorption as well as removal efficiency towards Eu (III), which suggest that the material have potential to be used in future for their real time applications in removal of Eu (III) from complex matrices.

Expert systems in transmission planning

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Galiana, F.D.; McGillis, D.T.; Marin, M.A.

1992-05-01

In this paper the state of the field of expert systems and knowledge engineering in transmission planning is reviewed. A detailed analysis of the goals, definition, requirements and methodology of transmission planning is presented. Potential benefits of knowledge-based applications in transmission planning are reviewed. This is followed by a thorough review of the area broken down into subareas or important related topics. The conclusions offer a number of suggestions for possible future research and development. Finally, a detailed bibliography divided into subareas is presented.

Enhancing the child survival agenda to promote, protect, and support early child development.

PubMed

Jensen, Sarah K G; Bouhouch, Raschida R; Walson, Judd L; Daelmans, Bernadette; Bahl, Rajiv; Darmstadt, Gary L; Dua, Tarun

2015-08-01

High rates of child mortality and lost developmental potential in children under 5 years of age remain important challenges and drivers of inequity in the developing world. Substantive progress has been made toward Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 to improve child survival, but as we move into the post-2015 sustainable development agenda, much more work is needed to ensure that all children can realize their full and holistic physical, cognitive, psychological, and socio-emotional development potential. This article presents child survival and development as a continuous and multifaceted process and suggests that a life-course perspective of child development should be at the core of future policy making, programming, and research. We suggest that increased attention to child development, beyond child survival, is key to operationalize the sustainable development goals (SDGs), address inequities, build on the demographic dividend, and maximize gains in human potential. An important step toward implementation will be to increase integration of existing interventions for child survival and child development. Integrated interventions have numerous potential benefits, including optimization of resource use, potential additive impacts across multiple domains of health and development, and opportunity to realize a more holistic approach to client-centered care. However, a notable challenge to integration is the continued division between the health sector and other sectors that support child development. Despite these barriers, empirical evidence is available to suggest that successful multisectoral coordination is feasible and leads to improved short- and long-term outcomes in human, social, and economic development. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Future fertility for individuals with differences of sex development: Parent attitudes and perspectives about decision-making.

PubMed

Johnson, Emilie K; Rosoklija, Ilina; Shurba, Angela; D'Oro, Anthony; Gordon, Elisa J; Chen, Diane; Finlayson, Courtney; Holl, Jane L

2017-08-01

Children, adolescents, and young adults (children/youth) with differences/disorders of sex development (DSD) face challenges related to future fertility; this may be due to variations in gonadal development, and, for some, gonadectomy performed to reduce the risk of malignancy. Childhood may be the only time for preservation of biological fertility potential for children/youth who undergo gonadectomy or have early gonadal failure. Fertility-related decision-making for these patients is particularly complicated, due to the need for parental proxy decision-making, potential discordance between gender identity and gonadal type, and uncertain future assisted reproductive technologies. This study aimed to assess: (1) attitudes regarding future fertility, and (2) healthcare needs for fertility-related decision-making among parents of children/youth with DSD. Semi-structured qualitative interviews about future fertility were conducted with parents of children/youth with DSD. Parents who had never discussed fertility with a healthcare provider were excluded. Grounded theory methodology was used to identify emergent themes and patterns. Demographics and clinical characteristics were assessed via survey and medical chart review. Nineteen parents were interviewed (participation rate: 60%, 14 mothers/5 fathers, median patient age at diagnosis 6 months (range 0-192), eight DSD diagnoses). The most common emergent themes are summarized in the Summary Table. Most parents identified fertility as a key concern, both at time of diagnosis and throughout development. Parents expressed difficulty with timing of disclosure about potential infertility to their children. Multiple preferences related to medical decision-making about future fertility and fertility preservation were expressed, including: a desire for step-by-step decision-making, and use of medically vetted information and research to guide decisions. This qualitative study provided new information about the perspectives of parents of children/youth with DSD regarding future fertility. Previous studies have suggested that the possibility of biological parenthood is important to many individuals with DSD. This study provided an in-depth parental perspective. This is important because many decisions that affect future fertility are made in childhood, and require parents to make decisions on behalf of their children. The study sample was limited in its geographic diversity. Strengths of the study included diversity in age of the child/youth, ethnic backgrounds, and the DSD diagnoses that were represented. Future fertility was a concern for many parents of children/youth with DSD. Parents expressed multiple priorities and preferences related to making difficult fertility-related medical decisions for their children. Many of the study findings could be incorporated into future best practices for discussions about fertility with families of children/youth with DSD. Copyright © 2017 Journal of Pediatric Urology Company. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Legionnaires' Disease Outbreak Caused by Endemic Strain of Legionella pneumophila, New York, New York, USA, 2015.

PubMed

Lapierre, Pascal; Nazarian, Elizabeth; Zhu, Yan; Wroblewski, Danielle; Saylors, Amy; Passaretti, Teresa; Hughes, Scott; Tran, Anthony; Lin, Ying; Kornblum, John; Morrison, Shatavia S; Mercante, Jeffrey W; Fitzhenry, Robert; Weiss, Don; Raphael, Brian H; Varma, Jay K; Zucker, Howard A; Rakeman, Jennifer L; Musser, Kimberlee A

2017-11-01

During the summer of 2015, New York, New York, USA, had one of the largest and deadliest outbreaks of Legionnaires' disease in the history of the United States. A total of 138 cases and 16 deaths were linked to a single cooling tower in the South Bronx. Analysis of environmental samples and clinical isolates showed that sporadic cases of legionellosis before, during, and after the outbreak could be traced to a slowly evolving, single-ancestor strain. Detection of an ostensibly virulent Legionella strain endemic to the Bronx community suggests potential risk for future cases of legionellosis in the area. The genetic homogeneity of the Legionella population in this area might complicate investigations and interpretations of future outbreaks of Legionnaires' disease.

Legionnaires’ Disease Outbreak Caused by Endemic Strain of Legionella pneumophila, New York, New York, USA, 2015

PubMed Central

Nazarian, Elizabeth; Zhu, Yan; Wroblewski, Danielle; Saylors, Amy; Passaretti, Teresa; Hughes, Scott; Tran, Anthony; Lin, Ying; Kornblum, John; Morrison, Shatavia S.; Mercante, Jeffrey W.; Fitzhenry, Robert; Weiss, Don; Raphael, Brian H.; Varma, Jay K.; Zucker, Howard A.; Rakeman, Jennifer L.; Musser, Kimberlee A.

2017-01-01

During the summer of 2015, New York, New York, USA, had one of the largest and deadliest outbreaks of Legionnaires’ disease in the history of the United States. A total of 138 cases and 16 deaths were linked to a single cooling tower in the South Bronx. Analysis of environmental samples and clinical isolates showed that sporadic cases of legionellosis before, during, and after the outbreak could be traced to a slowly evolving, single-ancestor strain. Detection of an ostensibly virulent Legionella strain endemic to the Bronx community suggests potential risk for future cases of legionellosis in the area. The genetic homogeneity of the Legionella population in this area might complicate investigations and interpretations of future outbreaks of Legionnaires’ disease. PMID:29047425

Technology and operational considerations for low-heat-rate trajectories. [of future winged earth reentry vehicles

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Wurster, K. E.; Eldred, C. H.

1979-01-01

A broad parametric study which examines several critical aspects of low-heat-rate entry trajectories is performed. Low planform loadings associated with future winged earth-entry vehicles coupled with the potential application of metallic thermal protection systems (TPS) suggest that such trajectories are of particular interest. Studied are three heating conditions - reference, stagnation, and windward centerline, for both laminar and turbulent flow; configuration-related factors including planform loading and hypersonic angle of attack; and mission-related factors such as cross-range and orbit inclination. Results indicate benefits in the design of TPS to be gained by utilizing moderate angles of attack as opposed to high-lift coefficient, high angles of attack, during entry. An assessment of design and technology implications is made.

Geophysical Evolution of Ch Asteroids and Testable Hypotheses for Future Missions

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Castillo, J. C.

2017-12-01

The main population of asteroids related to meteorites in the collections remains to be explored in situ. Ch asteroids are the only midsized asteroids that display a signature of hydration (besides Pallas) and the spectral connection between Ch asteroids and CM chondrites suggests that the former represent potential parent bodies for the latter. This class of asteroids is particularly interesting because it hosts many objects 100-200 km in size, which are believed to belong to a primordial population of planetesimals. This presentation will explore multiple evolution pathways for Ch-asteroids leading to possible hypotheses on the geological, petrological, and geophysical properties that a disrupted parent body would present to a future mission. This work is being carried out at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, under contract to NASA.

Exercise, Affect, and Adherence: An Integrated Model and a Case for Self-Paced Exercise

PubMed Central

Williams, David M.

2014-01-01

This paper reviews research relevant to a proposed conceptual model of exercise adherence that integrates the dual mode model and hedonic theory. Exercise intensity is posited to influence affective response to exercise via interoceptive (e.g., ventilatory drive) and cognitive (e.g., perceived autonomy) pathways; affective response to exercise is posited to influence exercise adherence via anticipated affective response to future exercise. The potential for self-paced exercise to enhance exercise adherence is examined in the context of the proposed model and suggestions are given for future research. Further evidence in support of self-paced exercise could have implications for exercise prescription, especially among overweight, sedentary adults, who are most in need of interventions that enhance adherence to exercise programs. PMID:18971508

Current status and future options for trauma and emergency surgery in Turkey.

PubMed

Taviloğlu, Korhan; Ertekin, Cemalettin

2008-01-01

The number of trauma victims in Turkey is expected to increase as a consequence of the increasing vehicular traffic, potential for earthquakes, and risk of terrorist attacks. The Turkish Association for Trauma and Emergency Surgery monitors trauma cases, publishes a quarterly journal, organizes trauma courses and seminars for various health personnel nationwide. It is also extending efforts to improve in-hospital care by establishing trauma and emergency surgery fellowships and trauma and emergency surgery centers nationwide, which is run by General Surgeons currently. Turkey faces the same dilemma as the rest of the developed world regarding the future of trauma surgeons in the current era of nonoperative trauma management. We suggest that the field of trauma and emergency surgery be redefined to include emergency general surgery and cavitary trauma.

Projecting coral reef futures under global warming and ocean acidification.

PubMed

Pandolfi, John M; Connolly, Sean R; Marshall, Dustin J; Cohen, Anne L

2011-07-22

Many physiological responses in present-day coral reefs to climate change are interpreted as consistent with the imminent disappearance of modern reefs globally because of annual mass bleaching events, carbonate dissolution, and insufficient time for substantial evolutionary responses. Emerging evidence for variability in the coral calcification response to acidification, geographical variation in bleaching susceptibility and recovery, responses to past climate change, and potential rates of adaptation to rapid warming supports an alternative scenario in which reef degradation occurs with greater temporal and spatial heterogeneity than current projections suggest. Reducing uncertainty in projecting coral reef futures requires improved understanding of past responses to rapid climate change; physiological responses to interacting factors, such as temperature, acidification, and nutrients; and the costs and constraints imposed by acclimation and adaptation.

Stem Cell Therapy for Incontinence: Where Are We Now? What is the Realistic Potential?

PubMed Central

Dissaranan, Charuspong; Cruz, Michelle A.; Couri, Bruna M.; Goldman, Howard B.

2011-01-01

A significant number of women experience stress urinary incontinence (SUI), which greatly affects their quality of life. Recent research investigating utilization of stem cells and their derivatives for the prevention and treatment of SUI has been performed to test the effect of cell source and method of administration in several animal models of SUI. The type of stem cell, timing of optimal dose or doses after injury, mechanism of action of stem cells, and route of administration must be investigated both preclinically and clinically before stem cell therapy becomes a possible treatment for SUI, although the future of this therapy looks promising. This article reviews the progress in stem cell research for incontinence and describes areas of future work as suggested by research in other fields. PMID:21842258

STEM CELLS AS A POTENTIAL FUTURE TREATMENT OF PEDIATRIC INTESTINAL DISORDERS

PubMed Central

Markel, Troy A.; Crisostomo, Paul R.; Lahm, Tim; Novotny, Nathan M.; Rescorla, Frederick J.; Tector, A. Joseph; Meldrum, Daniel R.

2008-01-01

All surgical disciplines encounter planned and unplanned ischemic events that may ultimately lead to cellular dysfunction and death. Stem cell therapy has shown promise for the treatment of a variety of ischemic and inflammatory disorders where tissue damage has occurred. As stem cells have proven beneficial in many disease processes, important opportunities in the future treatment of gastrointestinal disorders may exist. Therefore, this manuscript will serve to: review the different types of stem cells that may be applicable to the treatment of gastrointestinal disorders, review the mechanisms suggesting that stem cells may work for these conditions; discuss current practices for harvesting and purifying stem cells; and provide a concise summary of a few of the pediatric intestinal disorders that could be treated with cellular therapy. PMID:18970924

Exercise and mental health: a review.

PubMed

Glenister, D

1996-02-01

With the advent of programmes to raise the level of fitness in the general population, and alliances between primary health care and community leisure services, the potential of exercise in promoting mental as well as physical health deserves investigation. In contrast to USA and continental Europe, there is a paucity of British research studies systematically exploring the mental health benefits of exercise. The recent rapid growth of exercise prescription among general practitioners presents an opportunity for future research. This review of eleven randomised control trials (RCTs) suggests a causal relationship between exercise and mental health based upon studies in various settings. The methodological difficulties associated with randomised control trials of psycho-social interventions are discussed. The value of future randomised control trials which incorporate examination of perceived acceptability and health economics is indicated.

Status of the Magma Energy Project

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dunn, J. C.

The current magma energy project is assessing the engineering feasibility of extracting thermal energy directly from crustal magma bodies. The estimated size of the U.S. resource (50,000 to 500,000 quads) suggests a considerable potential impact on future power generation. In a previous seven-year study, we concluded that there are no insurmountable barriers that would invalidate the magma energy concept. Several concepts for drilling, energy extraction, and materials survivability were successfully demonstrated in Kilauea Iki lava lake, Hawaii. The present program is addressing the engineering design problems associated with accessing magma bodies and extracting thermal energy for power generation. The normal stages for development of a geothermal resource are being investigated: exploration, drilling and completions, production, and surface power plant design. Current status of the engineering program and future plans are described.

Activation, decay heat, and waste classification studies of the European DEMO concept

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gilbert, M. R.; Eade, T.; Bachmann, C.; Fischer, U.; Taylor, N. P.

2017-04-01

Inventory calculations have a key role to play in designing future fusion power plants because, for a given irradiation field and material, they can predict the time evolution in chemical composition, activation, decay heat, gamma-dose, gas production, and even damage (dpa) dose. For conceptual designs of the European DEMO fusion reactor such calculations provide information about the neutron shielding requirements, maintenance schedules, and waste disposal prospects; thereby guiding future development. Extensive neutron-transport and inventory calculations have been performed for a reference DEMO reactor model with four different tritium-breeding blanket concepts. The results have been used to chart the post-operation variation in activity and decay heat from different vessel components, demonstrating that the shielding performance of the different blanket concepts—for a given blanket thickness—varies significantly. Detailed analyses of the simulated nuclide inventories for the vacuum vessel (VV) and divertor highlight the most dominant radionuclides, potentially suggesting how changes in material composition could help to reduce activity. Minor impurities in the raw composition of W used in divertor tiles, for example, are shown to produce undesirable long-lived radionuclides. Finally, waste classifications, based on UK regulations, and a recycling potential limit, have been applied to estimate the time-evolution in waste masses for both the entire vessel (including blanket modules, VV, divertor, and some ex-vessel components) and individual components, and also to suggest when a particular component might be suitable for recycling. The results indicate that the large mass of the VV will not be classifiable as low level waste on the 100 year timescale, but the majority of the divertor will be, and that both components will be potentially recyclable within that time.

Integrated Approach of Agri-nanotechnology: Challenges and Future Trends

PubMed Central

Mishra, Sandhya; Keswani, Chetan; Abhilash, P. C.; Fraceto, Leonardo F.; Singh, Harikesh Bahadur

2017-01-01

Nanotechnology representing a new frontier in modern agriculture is anticipated to become a major thrust in near future by offering potential applications. This integrating approach, i.e., agri-nanotechnology has great potential to cope with global challenges of food production/security, sustainability and climate change. However, despite the potential benefits of nanotechnology in agriculture so far, their relevance has not reached up to the field conditions. The elevating concerns about fate, transport, bioavailability, nanoparticles toxicity and inappropriateness of regulatory framework limit the complete acceptance and inclination to adopt nanotechnologies in agricultural sector. Moreover, the current research trends lack realistic approach that fail to attain comprehensive knowledge of risk assessment factors and further toxicity of nanoparticles toward agroecosystem components viz. plant, soil, soil microbiomes after their release into the environment. Hence in the present review we attempt to suggest certain key points to be addressed in the current and future agri-nanotechnology researches on the basis of recognized knowledge gaps with strong recommendation of incorporating biosynthesized nanoparticles to carry out analogous functions. In this perspective, the major points are as follows: (i) Mitigating risk assessment factors (responsible for fate, transport, behavior, bioavailability and toxicity) for alleviating the subsequent toxicity of nanoparticles. (ii) Optimizing permissible level of nanoparticles dose within the safety limits by performing dose dependent studies. (iii) Adopting realistic approach by designing the experiments in natural habitat and avoiding in vitro assays for accurate interpretation. (iv) Most importantly, translating environmental friendly and non-toxic biosynthesized nanoparticles from laboratory to field conditions for agricultural benefits. PMID:28421100

The Impact of Global Climate Change on the Geographic Distribution and Sustainable Harvest of Hancornia speciosa Gomes (Apocynaceae) in Brazil

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Nabout, João Carlos; Magalhães, Mara Rúbia; de Amorim Gomes, Marcos Aurélio; da Cunha, Hélida Ferreira

2016-04-01

The global Climate change may affect biodiversity and the functioning of ecosystems by changing the appropriate locations for the development and establishment of the species. The Hancornia speciosa, popularly called Mangaba, is a plant species that has potential commercial value and contributes to rural economic activities in Brazil. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of global climate change on the potential geographic distribution, productivity, and value of production of H. speciosa in Brazil. We used MaxEnt to estimate the potential geographic distribution of the species in current and future (2050) climate scenarios. We obtained the productivity and value of production for 74 municipalities in Brazil. Moreover, to explain the variation the productivity and value of production, we constructed 15 models based on four variables: two ecological (ecological niche model and the presence of Unity of conservation) and two socio-economic (gross domestic product and human developed index). The models were selected using Akaike Information Criteria. Our results suggest that municipalities currently harvesting H. speciosa will have lower harvest rates in the future (mainly in northeastern Brazil). The best model to explain the productivity was ecological niche model; thus, municipalities with higher productivity are inserted in regions with higher environmental suitability (indicated by niche model). Thus, in the future, the municipalities harvesting H. speciosa will produce less because there will be less suitable habitat for H. speciosa, which in turn will affect the H. speciosa harvest and the local economy.

Back to the future: autobiographical planning and the functionality of mind-wandering.

PubMed

Baird, Benjamin; Smallwood, Jonathan; Schooler, Jonathan W

2011-12-01

Given that as much as half of human thought arises in a stimulus independent fashion, it would seem unlikely that such thoughts would play no functional role in our lives. However, evidence linking the mind-wandering state to performance decrement has led to the notion that mind-wandering primarily represents a form of cognitive failure. Based on previous work showing a prospective bias to mind-wandering, the current study explores the hypothesis that one potential function of spontaneous thought is to plan and anticipate personally relevant future goals, a process referred to as autobiographical planning. The results confirm that the content of mind-wandering is predominantly future-focused, demonstrate that individuals with high working memory capacity are more likely to engage in prospective mind-wandering, and show that prospective mind-wandering frequently involves autobiographical planning. Together this evidence suggests that mind-wandering can enable prospective cognitive operations that are likely to be useful to the individual as they navigate through their daily lives. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Natural and Human-Induced Variability in Barrier-Island Response to Sea Level Rise

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Miselis, Jennifer L.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge

2017-12-01

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

Diagnosis of borderline personality disorder in China: current status and future directions.

PubMed

Zhong, Jie; Leung, Freedom

2009-02-01

This paper reviews the current status and future directions of borderline personality disorder (BPD) research in China. Although the committee of the third version of the Chinese Classification of Mental Disorders (CCMD-3) rejected BPD as a valid diagnostic category and instead adopted the term impulsive personality disorder (IPD), our literature review on personality disorders from 1979 to 2008 in China indicated that BPD was the most popular research topic among researchers and clinicians. Available empiric evidence on BPD in China provided preliminary support for the construct validity and clinical utility of BPD in clinical and nonclinical Chinese samples. Future studies in the following areas are suggested: 1) developing reliable assessment instruments for measuring BPD pathology in China, 2) comparing the construct validity and phenomenology of CCMD IPD and DSM BPD among Chinese patients, 3) examining potential cultural differences in symptom expression of BPD pathology among the Chinese, and 4) exploring indigenous and imported methods for treating BPD patients in China.

Natural and human-induced variability in barrier-island response to sea level rise

USGS Publications Warehouse

Miselis, Jennifer L.; Lorenzo-Trueba, Jorge

2017-01-01

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

The sensitivity of current and future forest managers to climate-induced changes in ecological processes.

PubMed

Seidl, Rupert; Aggestam, Filip; Rammer, Werner; Blennow, Kristina; Wolfslehner, Bernhard

2016-05-01

Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager's sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.

Biomarkers and patient selection for PI3K/Akt/mTOR targeted therapies: current status and future directions.

PubMed

Bartlett, John M S

2010-11-01

The phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3K)/Akt/ mammalian target of rapamycin (mTOR) pathway regulates a broad spectrum of physiologic and pathologic processes. In breast cancer mutation, amplification, deletion, methylation, and posttranslational modifications lead to significant dysregulation of this pathway leading to more aggressive and potentially drug-resistant disease. Multiple novel agents, targeting different nodes within the pathway are currently under development by both commercial and academic partners. The key to the successful validation of these markers is selection of the appropriate patient groups using biomarkers. This article reviews current progress in this area, highlighting the key molecular alterations described in genes within the PI3K/Akt/mTOR pathway that may have an effect on response to current and future therapeutic interventions. Herein, gaps in current knowledge are highlighted and suggestions for future research directions given that may facilitate biomarker development in partnership with current drug development.

A Review and Analysis of Remote Sensing Capability for Air Quality Measurements as a Potential Decision Support Tool Conducted by the NASA DEVELOP Program

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Ross, A.; Richards, A.; Keith, K.; Frew, C.; Boseck, J.; Sutton, S.; Watts, C.; Rickman, D.

2007-01-01

This project focused on a comprehensive utilization of air quality model products as decision support tools (DST) needed for public health applications. A review of past and future air quality measurement methods and their uncertainty, along with the relationship of air quality to national and global public health, is vital. This project described current and future NASA satellite remote sensing and ground sensing capabilities and the potential for using these sensors to enhance the prediction, prevention, and control of public health effects that result from poor air quality. The qualitative uncertainty of current satellite remotely sensed air quality, the ground-based remotely sensed air quality, the air quality/public health model, and the decision making process is evaluated in this study. Current peer-reviewed literature suggests that remotely sensed air quality parameters correlate well with ground-based sensor data. A satellite remote-sensed and ground-sensed data complement is needed to enhance the models/tools used by policy makers for the protection of national and global public health communities

Epicardial fat and atrial fibrillation: current evidence, potential mechanisms, clinical implications, and future directions.

PubMed

Wong, Christopher X; Ganesan, Anand N; Selvanayagam, Joseph B

2017-05-01

Obesity is increasingly recognized as a major modifiable determinant of atrial fibrillation (AF). Although body mass index and other clinical measures are useful indications of general adiposity, much recent interest has focused on epicardial fat, a distinct adipose tissue depot that can be readily assessed using non-invasive imaging techniques. A growing body of data from epidemiological and clinical studies has demonstrated that epicardial fat is consistently associated with the presence, severity, and recurrence of AF across a range of clinical settings. Evidence from basic science and translational studies has also suggested that arrhythmogenic mechanisms may involve adipocyte infiltration, pro-fibrotic, and pro-inflammatory paracrine effects, oxidative stress, and other pathways. Despite these advances, however, significant uncertainty exists and many questions remain unanswered. In this article, we review our present understanding of epicardial fat, including its classification and quantification, existing evidence implicating its role in AF, potential mechanisms, implications for clinicians, and future directions for research. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author 2016. For permissions please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

A logistics and potential hazard study of propellant systems for a Saturn 5 derived heavy lift (three-stage core) launch vehicle

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Whitney, E. Dow

1992-01-01

The Bush Administration has directed NASA to prepare for a return to the Moon and on to Mars - the Space Exploration Initiative. To meet this directive, powerful rocket boosters will be required in order to lift payloads that may reach the half-million pound range into low earth orbit. In this report an analysis is presented on logistics and potential hazards of the propellant systems envisioned for future Saturn 5 derived heavy lift launch vehicles. In discussing propellant logistics, particular attention has been given to possible problems associated with procurement, transportation, and storage of RP-1, HL2, and LOX, the heavy lift launch vehicle propellants. Current LOX producing facilities will need to be expanded and propellant storage and some support facilities will require relocation if current Launch Pads 39A and/or 39B are to be used for future heavy noise-abatement measures. Included in the report is a discussion of suggested additional studies, primarily economic and environmental, which should be undertaken in support of the goals of the Space Exploration Initiative.

Surviving global risks through the preservation of humanity's data on the Moon

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Turchin, Alexey; Denkenberger, David

2018-05-01

Many global catastrophic risks are threatening human civilization, and a number of ideas have been suggested for preventing or surviving them. However, if these interventions fail, society could preserve information about the human race and human DNA samples in the hopes that the next civilization on Earth will be able to reconstruct Homo sapiens and our culture. This requires information preservation of an order of magnitude of 100 million years, a little-explored topic thus far. It is important that a potential future civilization discovers this information as early as possible, thus a beacon should accompany the message in order to increase visibility. The message should ideally contain information about how humanity was destroyed, perhaps including a continuous recording until the end. This could help the potential future civilization to survive. The best place for long-term data storage is under the surface of the Moon, with the beacon constructed as a complex geometric figure drawn by small craters or trenches around a central point. There are several cost-effective options for sending the message as opportunistic payloads on different planned landers.

Scenario planning.

PubMed

Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

2011-03-01

In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can suggest which basic features among the "possible futures" are playing out. Scenario planning provides for the implementation of appropriate constructed strategic responses. Scenarios allow for a pre-prepared game plan available for ready use as the future unfolds. They allow a deliberative response rather than a hastily constructed, urgent response. Copyright © 2011 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Workshop report on atomic bomb dosimetry-residual radiation exposure: recent research and suggestions for future studies.

PubMed

Kerr, George D; Egbert, Stephen D; Al-Nabulsi, Isaf; Beck, Harold L; Cullings, Harry M; Endo, Satoru; Hoshi, Masaharu; Imanaka, Tetsuji; Kaul, Dean C; Maruyama, Satoshi; Reeves, Glen I; Ruehm, Werner; Sakaguchi, Aya; Simon, Steven L; Spriggs, Gregory D; Stram, Daniel O; Tonda, Tetsuji; Weiss, Joseph F; Weitz, Ronald L; Young, Robert W

2013-08-01

There is a need for accurate dosimetry for studies of health effects in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors because of the important role that these studies play in worldwide radiation protection standards. International experts have developed dosimetry systems, such as the Dosimetry System 2002 (DS02), which assess the initial radiation exposure to gamma rays and neutrons but only briefly consider the possibility of some minimal contribution to the total body dose by residual radiation exposure. In recognition of the need for an up-to-date review of the topic of residual radiation exposure in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, recently reported studies were reviewed at a technical session at the 57th Annual Meeting of the Health Physics Society in Sacramento, California, 22-26 July 2012. A one-day workshop was also held to provide time for detailed discussion of these newer studies and to evaluate their potential use in clarifying the residual radiation exposures to the atomic-bomb survivors at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Suggestions for possible future studies are also included in this workshop report.

Can Tai Chi and Qigong Postures Shape Our Mood? Toward an Embodied Cognition Framework for Mind-Body Research

PubMed Central

Osypiuk, Kamila; Thompson, Evan; Wayne, Peter M.

2018-01-01

Dynamic and static body postures are a defining characteristic of mind-body practices such as Tai Chi and Qigong (TCQ). A growing body of evidence supports the hypothesis that TCQ may be beneficial for psychological health, including management and prevention of depression and anxiety. Although a variety of causal factors have been identified as potential mediators of such health benefits, physical posture, despite its visible prominence, has been largely overlooked. We hypothesize that body posture while standing and/or moving may be a key therapeutic element mediating the influence of TCQ on psychological health. In the present paper, we summarize existing experimental and observational evidence that suggests a bi-directional relationship between body posture and mental states. Drawing from embodied cognitive science, we provide a theoretical framework for further investigation into this interrelationship. We discuss the challenges involved in such an investigation and propose suggestions for future studies. Despite theoretical and practical challenges, we propose that the role of posture in mind-body exercises such as TCQ should be considered in future research. PMID:29765313

Can Tai Chi and Qigong Postures Shape Our Mood? Toward an Embodied Cognition Framework for Mind-Body Research.

PubMed

Osypiuk, Kamila; Thompson, Evan; Wayne, Peter M

2018-01-01

Dynamic and static body postures are a defining characteristic of mind-body practices such as Tai Chi and Qigong (TCQ). A growing body of evidence supports the hypothesis that TCQ may be beneficial for psychological health, including management and prevention of depression and anxiety. Although a variety of causal factors have been identified as potential mediators of such health benefits, physical posture, despite its visible prominence, has been largely overlooked. We hypothesize that body posture while standing and/or moving may be a key therapeutic element mediating the influence of TCQ on psychological health. In the present paper, we summarize existing experimental and observational evidence that suggests a bi-directional relationship between body posture and mental states. Drawing from embodied cognitive science, we provide a theoretical framework for further investigation into this interrelationship. We discuss the challenges involved in such an investigation and propose suggestions for future studies. Despite theoretical and practical challenges, we propose that the role of posture in mind-body exercises such as TCQ should be considered in future research.

Workshop Report on Atomic Bomb Dosimetry--Residual Radiation Exposure: Recent Research and Suggestions for Future Studies

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

None

2013-06-06

There is a need for accurate dosimetry for studies of health effects in the Japanese atomic bomb survivors because of the important role that these studies play in worldwide radiation protection standards. International experts have developed dosimetry systems, such as the Dosimetry System 2002 (DS02), which assess the initial radiation exposure to gamma rays and neutrons but only briefly consider the possibility of some minimal contribution to the total body dose by residual radiation exposure. In recognition of the need for an up-to-date review of the topic of residual radiation exposure in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, recently reported studies were reviewedmore » at a technical session at the 57th Annual Meeting of the Health Physics Society in Sacramento, California, 22-26 July 2012. A one-day workshop was also held to provide time for detailed discussion of these newer studies and to evaluate their potential use in clarifying the residual radiation exposures to the atomic-bomb survivors at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Suggestions for possible future studies are also included in this workshop report.« less

Assessing the value of the Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP) in Everglades restoration: an ecosystem service approach

USGS Publications Warehouse

Richardson, Leslie A.; Keefe, Kelly; Huber, Christopher C.; Racevskis, Laila; Gregg, Reynolds; Thourot, Scott; Miller, Ian

2014-01-01

This study identifies a full range of ecosystem services that could be affected by a restoration project in the central Everglades and monetizes the economic value of a subset of these services using existing data. Findings suggest that the project will potentially increase many ecosystem services that have considerable economic value to society. The ecosystem services monetized within the scope of this study are a subset of the difference between the future-with the Central Everglades Planning Project (CEPP) and the future-without CEPP, and they totaled ~ $1.8 billion USD at a 2.5% discount rate. Findings suggest that the use of ecosystem services in project planning and communications may require acknowledgment of the difficulty of monetizing important services and the limitations associated with using only existing data and models. Results of this study highlight the need for additional valuation efforts in this region, focused on those services that are likely to be impacted by restoration activities but were notably challenging to value in this assessment due to shortages of data.

Can transcranial electrical stimulation improve learning difficulties in atypical brain development? A future possibility for cognitive training☆

PubMed Central

Krause, Beatrix; Cohen Kadosh, Roi

2013-01-01

Learning difficulties in atypical brain development represent serious obstacles to an individual's future achievements and can have broad societal consequences. Cognitive training can improve learning impairments only to a certain degree. Recent evidence from normal and clinical adult populations suggests that transcranial electrical stimulation (TES), a portable, painless, inexpensive, and relatively safe neuroenhancement tool, applied in conjunction with cognitive training can enhance cognitive intervention outcomes. This includes, for instance, numerical processing, language skills and response inhibition deficits commonly associated with profound learning difficulties and attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). The current review introduces the functional principles, current applications and promising results, and potential pitfalls of TES. Unfortunately, research in child populations is limited at present. We suggest that TES has considerable promise as a tool for increasing neuroplasticity in atypically developing children and may be an effective adjunct to cognitive training in clinical settings if it proves safe. The efficacy and both short- and long-term effects of TES on the developing brain need to be critically assessed before it can be recommended for clinical settings. PMID:23770059

The maternal womb: a novel target for cancer prevention in the era of the obesity pandemic?

PubMed Central

Simmen, Frank A.; Simmen, Rosalia C.M.

2011-01-01

The dramatic rise in worldwide prevalence of obesity has necessitated the search for more efficacious anti-obesity strategies to counter the increased cancer risks in overweight and obese individuals. The mechanistic pathways linking obesity status with adult chronic diseases such as cancer remain incompletely understood. A growing body of evidence suggests that novel approaches and interventional agents to disrupt the feed-forward cycle of maternal to offspring obesity transfer that is initiated in utero, will be important for stemming both the obesity pandemic and the associated increase in cancer incidence. The convergence of multiple research areas including those encompassing the insulin and insulin-like growth factor (IGF) systems, epigenetics, and stem cell biology is providing insights into the potential for cancer prevention in adult offspring previously exposed to the intrauterine environment of overweight/obese mothers. Here, we review the current state of this nascent research field, with a focus on three major cancers namely breast, colorectal and liver, and suggest some possible future directions to optimize its impact for the health of future generations. PMID:21701386

Pulmonary embolism as a complication of long-term total parenteral nutrition.

PubMed

Mailloux, R J; DeLegge, M H; Kirby, D F

1993-01-01

Although much has been written concerning the complications of long-term total parenteral nutrition, little or no mention of pulmonary embolism is made in the literature. We present two patients maintained on home total parenteral nutrition who suffered pulmonary emboli, one while receiving standard heparin therapy. No potential source other than their indwelling total parenteral nutrition catheter was identified. Studies have revealed catheter-related thrombosis in up to 50% of patients with indwelling central venous catheters. Although early surgical literature suggested that upper extremity deep vein thromboses rarely embolize, more recent investigations have proven this false. In fact, the risk of pulmonary emboli appeared to be greatest in those thrombi that were catheter related. Because of this risk, we suggest a hypercoaguable work-up in any patient with a history of recurrent thrombosis. Heparin is central to the current preventive regimens; however, further study is needed to determine the most efficacious dose. Future development of less thrombogenic catheters will also be of assistance. Thrombolytic agents currently have an expanding role in the treatment of thrombotic complications. Whether they will have a future role in prevention remains unknown.

Distribution, genetic diversity and potential spatiotemporal scale of alien gene flow in crop wild relatives of rice (Oryza spp.) in Colombia.

PubMed

Thomas, Evert; Tovar, Eduardo; Villafañe, Carolina; Bocanegra, José Leonardo; Moreno, Rodrigo

2017-12-01

Crop wild relatives (CWRs) of rice hold important traits that can contribute to enhancing the ability of cultivated rice (Oryza sativa and O. glaberrima) to produce higher yields, cope with the effects of climate change, and resist attacks of pests and diseases, among others. However, the genetic resources of these species remain dramatically understudied, putting at risk their future availability from in situ and ex situ sources. Here we assess the distribution of genetic diversity of the four rice CWRs known to occur in Colombia (O. glumaepatula, O. alta, O. grandiglumis, and O. latifolia). Furthermore, we estimated the degree of overlap between areas with suitable habitat for cultivated and wild rice, both under current and predicted future climate conditions to assess the potential spatiotemporal scale of potential gene flow from GM rice to its CWRs. Our findings suggest that part of the observed genetic diversity and structure, at least of the most exhaustively sampled species, may be explained by their glacial and post-glacial range dynamics. Furthermore, in assessing the expected impact of climate change and the potential spatiotemporal scale of gene flow between populations of CWRs and GM rice we find significant overlap between present and future suitable areas for cultivated rice and its four CWRs. Climate change is expected to have relatively limited negative effects on the rice CWRs, with three species showing opportunities to expand their distribution ranges in the future. Given (i) the sparse presence of CWR populations in protected areas (ii) the strong suitability overlap between cultivated rice and its four CWRs; and (iii) the complexity of managing and regulating areas to prevent alien gene flow, the first priority should be to establish representative ex situ collections for all CWR species, which currently do not exist. In the absence of studies under field conditions on the scale and extent of gene flow between cultivated rice and its Colombian CWRs, effective in situ conservation might best be achieved through tailor-made management plans and exclusion of GM rice cultivation in areas holding the most genetically diverse CWR populations. This may be combined with assisted migration of populations to suitable areas where rice is unlikely to be cultivated under current and future climate conditions.

Distributional potential of the Triatoma brasiliensis species complex at present and under scenarios of future climate conditions

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

Background The Triatoma brasiliensis complex is a monophyletic group, comprising three species, one of which includes two subspecific taxa, distributed across 12 Brazilian states, in the caatinga and cerrado biomes. Members of the complex are diverse in terms of epidemiological importance, morphology, biology, ecology, and genetics. Triatoma b. brasiliensis is the most disease-relevant member of the complex in terms of epidemiology, extensive distribution, broad feeding preferences, broad ecological distribution, and high rates of infection with Trypanosoma cruzi; consequently, it is considered the principal vector of Chagas disease in northeastern Brazil. Methods We used ecological niche models to estimate potential distributions of all members of the complex, and evaluated the potential for suitable adjacent areas to be colonized; we also present first evaluations of potential for climate change-mediated distributional shifts. Models were developed using the GARP and Maxent algorithms. Results Models for three members of the complex (T. b. brasiliensis, N = 332; T. b. macromelasoma, N = 35; and T. juazeirensis, N = 78) had significant distributional predictivity; however, models for T. sherlocki and T. melanica, both with very small sample sizes (N = 7), did not yield predictions that performed better than random. Model projections onto future-climate scenarios indicated little broad-scale potential for change in the potential distribution of the complex through 2050. Conclusions This study suggests that T. b. brasiliensis is the member of the complex with the greatest distributional potential to colonize new areas: overall; however, the distribution of the complex appears relatively stable. These analyses offer key information to guide proactive monitoring and remediation activities to reduce risk of Chagas disease transmission. PMID:24886587

Biomass carbon stocks in China's forests between 2000 and 2050: a prediction based on forest biomass-age relationships.

PubMed

Xu, Bing; Guo, ZhaoDi; Piao, ShiLong; Fang, JingYun

2010-07-01

China's forests are characterized by young forest age, low carbon density and a large area of planted forests, and thus have high potential to act as carbon sinks in the future. Using China's national forest inventory data during 1994-1998 and 1999-2003, and direct field measurements, we investigated the relationships between forest biomass density and forest age for 36 major forest types. Statistical approaches and the predicted future forest area from the national forestry development plan were applied to estimate the potential of forest biomass carbon storage in China during 2000-2050. Under an assumption of continuous natural forest growth, China's existing forest biomass carbon (C) stock would increase from 5.86 Pg C (1 Pg=10(15) g) in 1999-2003 to 10.23 Pg C in 2050, resulting in a total increase of 4.37 Pg C. Newly planted forests through afforestation and reforestation will sequestrate an additional 2.86 Pg C in biomass. Overall, China's forests will potentially act as a carbon sink for 7.23 Pg C during the period 2000-2050, with an average carbon sink of 0.14 Pg C yr(-1). This suggests that China's forests will be a significant carbon sink in the next 50 years.

Area Disadvantage and Intimate Partner Homicide: An Ecological Analysis of North Carolina Counties, 2004–2006

PubMed Central

Madkour, Aubrey Spriggs; Martin, Sandra L.; Halpern, Carolyn Tucker; Schoenbach, Victor J.

2009-01-01

Using data from the North Carolina Violent Death Reporting System and other sources, we examined ecologic relationships between county (n=100) disadvantage and intimate partner homicide (IPH), variability by victim gender and county urbanicity, and potential mediators. County disadvantage was related to female-victim homicide only in metropolitan counties (incidence rate ratio [IRR] 1.25); however, disadvantage was associated with male-victim IPH regardless of county urbanicity (IRR 1.17). None of the potential intervening variables examined (shelter availability, intimate partner violence services’ funding), was supported as a mediator. Results suggest disparities across North Carolina counties in IPH according to county disadvantage. Future research should explore other potential mediators (i.e., service accessibility and law enforcement responses), as well as test the robustness of findings using additional years of data. PMID:20565007

Potential Landslide Early Detection Near Wenchuan by a Qualitatively Multi-Baseline Dinsar Method

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Dai, K.; Chen, G.; Xu, Q.; Li, Z.; Qu, T.; Hu, L.; Lu, H.

2018-04-01

Early detection of landslides is important for disaster prevention, which was still very hard work with traditional surveying methods. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technology provided us the ability to monitor displacements along the slope with wide coverage and high accuracy. In this paper, we proposed a qualitatively multi-baseline DInSAR method to early detect and map the potential landslides. Two sections of China National Highway 317 and 213 were selected as study area. With this method 10 potential landslide areas were early detected and mapped in a quick and effective way. One of them (i.e. Shidaguan landslide) collapsed on August 2017, which was coincident with our results, suggesting that this method could become an effective way to acquire the landslide early detection map to assist the future disaster prevention work.

Combat-related blast-induced neurotrauma: a public health problem?

PubMed

Jett, Shirley

2010-01-01

The purpose of this article is to raise nurses' awareness of the significance and potential public health impact of combat-related blast-induced neurotrauma (BINT) in U.S. troops returning from Afghanistan and Iraq. A comprehensive review of the current literature on BINT was completed by the author, based primarily on combat-related blast exposure in the military population. She found that it is necessary to theorize about potential etiologies for mild traumatic brain injury in the military population since the literature suggests that neurological and psychological trauma resulting from military duty may be linked to exposure to blasts. Identification of potential risk factors for BINT in the military population provides direction for scientific inquiry into this emerging phenomenon. Gaps in current knowledge and its health implications for future scientific study in nursing are presented. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Improving the current system for supplying organs for transplantation.

PubMed

Horton, R L; Horton, P J

1993-01-01

The United States currently relies on a voluntary, altruistic system for supplying organs for transplantation. It is now generally recognized that this system, as currently operated, produces a seriously inadequate supply of organs. A number of scholars have argued that some type of (generally unspecified) market system is necessary. Two articles appearing in the Journal of Health Politics, Policy and Law have proposed relatively specific market systems for increasing the supply of organs. In this paper we argue that market systems are at best premature. In particular, there is little to suggest that any type of market system for organs will be permitted in the United States in the foreseeable future. We present data that strongly suggest that the current voluntary, altruistic system has not been developed to its full potential and offer a number of specific suggestions for improving the system.

Bioelectronic platforms for optimal bio-anode of bio-electrochemical systems: From nano- to macro scopes.

PubMed

Kim, Bongkyu; An, Junyeong; Fapyane, Deby; Chang, In Seop

2015-11-01

The current trend of bio-electrochemical systems is to improve strategies related to their applicability and potential for scaling-up. To date, literature has suggested strategies, but the proposal of correlations between each research field remains insufficient. This review paper provides a correlation based on platform techniques, referred to as bio-electronics platforms (BEPs). These BEPs consist of three platforms divided by scope scale: nano-, micro-, and macro-BEPs. In the nano-BEP, several types of electron transfer mechanisms used by electrochemically active bacteria are discussed. In the micro-BEP, factors affecting the formation of conductive biofilms and transport of electrons in the conductive biofilm are investigated. In the macro-BEP, electrodes and separators in bio-anode are debated in terms of real applications, and a scale-up strategy is discussed. Overall, the challenges of each BEP are highlighted, and potential solutions are suggested. In addition, future research directions are provided and research ideas proposed to develop research interest. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Continuous track paths reveal additive evidence integration in multistep decision making.

PubMed

Buc Calderon, Cristian; Dewulf, Myrtille; Gevers, Wim; Verguts, Tom

2017-10-03

Multistep decision making pervades daily life, but its underlying mechanisms remain obscure. We distinguish four prominent models of multistep decision making, namely serial stage, hierarchical evidence integration, hierarchical leaky competing accumulation (HLCA), and probabilistic evidence integration (PEI). To empirically disentangle these models, we design a two-step reward-based decision paradigm and implement it in a reaching task experiment. In a first step, participants choose between two potential upcoming choices, each associated with two rewards. In a second step, participants choose between the two rewards selected in the first step. Strikingly, as predicted by the HLCA and PEI models, the first-step decision dynamics were initially biased toward the choice representing the highest sum/mean before being redirected toward the choice representing the maximal reward (i.e., initial dip). Only HLCA and PEI predicted this initial dip, suggesting that first-step decision dynamics depend on additive integration of competing second-step choices. Our data suggest that potential future outcomes are progressively unraveled during multistep decision making.

The enduring effect of scientific interest on trust in climate scientists in the United States

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Motta, Matthew

2018-06-01

People who distrust scientists are more likely to reject scientific consensus, and are more likely to support politicians who are sceptical of scientific research1. Consequently, boosting Americans' trust in scientists is a central goal of science communication2. However, while previous research has identified several correlates of distrust in climate scientists3 and scientists more broadly4, far less is known about potential long-term influences taking root in young adulthood. This omission is notable, as previous research suggests that attitudes towards science formulated in pre-teenage years play a key role in shaping attitudes in adulthood5. Using data from the Longitudinal Study of American Youth, I find that interest in science at age 12-14 years is associated with increased trust in climate scientists in adulthood (mid thirties), irrespective of Americans' political ideology. The enduring and bipartisan effects of scientific interest at young ages suggest a potential direction for future efforts to boost mass trust in climate scientists.

Biosphere Reserve for All: Potentials for Involving Underrepresented Age Groups in the Development of a Biosphere Reserve through Intergenerational Practice.

PubMed

Mitrofanenko, Tamara; Snajdr, Julia; Muhar, Andreas; Penker, Marianne; Schauppenlehner-Kloyber, Elisabeth

2018-05-22

Stakeholder participation is of high importance in UNESCO biosphere reserves as model regions for sustainable development; however, certain groups remain underrepresented. The paper proposes Intergenerational Practice (IP) as a means of involving youth and elderly women and explores its options and barriers, using the example of the Salzburger Lungau and Kärntner Nockberge Biosphere Reserve in Austria. Case study analysis is used involving mixed methods. The results reveal obstacles and motivations to participating in biosphere reserve implementation and intergenerational activities for the youth and the elderly women and imply that much potential for IP exists in the biosphere reserve region. The authors propose suitable solutions from the intergenerational field to overcome identified participation obstacles and suggest benefits of incorporating IP as a management tool into biosphere reserve activities. Suggestions for future research include evaluating applications of IP in the context of protected areas, testing of methods used in other contexts, and contribution to theory development.

Synaptic Vesicle Recycling Is Unaffected in the Ts65Dn Mouse Model of Down Syndrome.

PubMed

Marland, Jamie R K; Smillie, Karen J; Cousin, Michael A

2016-01-01

Down syndrome (DS) is the most common genetic cause of intellectual disability, and arises from trisomy of human chromosome 21. Accumulating evidence from studies of both DS patient tissue and mouse models has suggested that synaptic dysfunction is a key factor in the disorder. The presence of several genes within the DS trisomy that are either directly or indirectly linked to synaptic vesicle (SV) endocytosis suggested that presynaptic dysfunction could underlie some of these synaptic defects. Therefore we determined whether SV recycling was altered in neurons from the Ts65Dn mouse, the best characterised model of DS to date. We found that SV exocytosis, the size of the SV recycling pool, clathrin-mediated endocytosis, activity-dependent bulk endocytosis and SV generation from bulk endosomes were all unaffected by the presence of the Ts65Dn trisomy. These results were obtained using battery of complementary assays employing genetically-encoded fluorescent reporters of SV cargo trafficking, and fluorescent and morphological assays of fluid-phase uptake in primary neuronal culture. The absence of presynaptic dysfunction in central nerve terminals of the Ts65Dn mouse suggests that future research should focus on the established alterations in excitatory / inhibitory balance as a potential route for future pharmacotherapy.

Synaptic Vesicle Recycling Is Unaffected in the Ts65Dn Mouse Model of Down Syndrome

PubMed Central

Marland, Jamie R. K.; Smillie, Karen J.; Cousin, Michael A.

2016-01-01

Down syndrome (DS) is the most common genetic cause of intellectual disability, and arises from trisomy of human chromosome 21. Accumulating evidence from studies of both DS patient tissue and mouse models has suggested that synaptic dysfunction is a key factor in the disorder. The presence of several genes within the DS trisomy that are either directly or indirectly linked to synaptic vesicle (SV) endocytosis suggested that presynaptic dysfunction could underlie some of these synaptic defects. Therefore we determined whether SV recycling was altered in neurons from the Ts65Dn mouse, the best characterised model of DS to date. We found that SV exocytosis, the size of the SV recycling pool, clathrin-mediated endocytosis, activity-dependent bulk endocytosis and SV generation from bulk endosomes were all unaffected by the presence of the Ts65Dn trisomy. These results were obtained using battery of complementary assays employing genetically-encoded fluorescent reporters of SV cargo trafficking, and fluorescent and morphological assays of fluid-phase uptake in primary neuronal culture. The absence of presynaptic dysfunction in central nerve terminals of the Ts65Dn mouse suggests that future research should focus on the established alterations in excitatory / inhibitory balance as a potential route for future pharmacotherapy. PMID:26808141

Potential future land use threats to California's protected areas

USGS Publications Warehouse

Wilson, Tamara Sue; Sleeter, Benjamin Michael; Davis, Adam Wilkinson

2015-01-01

Increasing pressures from land use coupled with future changes in climate will present unique challenges for California’s protected areas. We assessed the potential for future land use conversion on land surrounding existing protected areas in California’s twelve ecoregions, utilizing annual, spatially explicit (250 m) scenario projections of land use for 2006–2100 based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios to examine future changes in development, agriculture, and logging. We calculated a conversion threat index (CTI) for each unprotected pixel, combining land use conversion potential with proximity to protected area boundaries, in order to identify ecoregions and protected areas at greatest potential risk of proximal land conversion. Our results indicate that California’s Coast Range ecoregion had the highest CTI with competition for extractive logging placing the greatest demand on land in close proximity to existing protected areas. For more permanent land use conversions into agriculture and developed uses, our CTI results indicate that protected areas in the Central California Valley and Oak Woodlands are most vulnerable. Overall, the Eastern Cascades, Central California Valley, and Oak Woodlands ecoregions had the lowest areal percent of protected lands and highest conversion threat values. With limited resources and time, rapid, landscape-level analysis of potential land use threats can help quickly identify areas with higher conversion probability of future land use and potential changes to both habitat and potential ecosystem reserves. Given the broad range of future uncertainties, LULC projections are a useful tool allowing land managers to visualize alternative landscape futures, improve planning, and optimize management practices.

Back to the future: using historical climate variation to project near-term shifts in habitat suitable for coast redwood.

PubMed

Fernández, Miguel; Hamilton, Healy H; Kueppers, Lara M

2015-11-01

Studies that model the effect of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems often use climate projections from downscaled global climate models (GCMs). These simulations are generally too coarse to capture patterns of fine-scale climate variation, such as the sharp coastal energy and moisture gradients associated with wind-driven upwelling of cold water. Coastal upwelling may limit future increases in coastal temperatures, compromising GCMs' ability to provide realistic scenarios of future climate in these coastal ecosystems. Taking advantage of naturally occurring variability in the high-resolution historic climatic record, we developed multiple fine-scale scenarios of California climate that maintain coherent relationships between regional climate and coastal upwelling. We compared these scenarios against coarse resolution GCM projections at a regional scale to evaluate their temporal equivalency. We used these historically based scenarios to estimate potential suitable habitat for coast redwood (Sequoia sempervirens D. Don) under 'normal' combinations of temperature and precipitation, and under anomalous combinations representative of potential future climates. We found that a scenario of warmer temperature with historically normal precipitation is equivalent to climate projected by GCMs for California by 2020-2030 and that under these conditions, climatically suitable habitat for coast redwood significantly contracts at the southern end of its current range. Our results suggest that historical climate data provide a high-resolution alternative to downscaled GCM outputs for near-term ecological forecasts. This method may be particularly useful in other regions where local climate is strongly influenced by ocean-atmosphere dynamics that are not represented by coarse-scale GCMs. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans—An Empirical Analysis of European Cities

PubMed Central

Reckien, Diana; Flacke, Johannes

2015-01-01

Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future. PMID:26317420

The Influence of Drivers and Barriers on Urban Adaptation and Mitigation Plans-An Empirical Analysis of European Cities.

PubMed

Reckien, Diana; Flacke, Johannes; Olazabal, Marta; Heidrich, Oliver

2015-01-01

Cities are recognised as key players in global adaptation and mitigation efforts because the majority of people live in cities. However, in Europe, which is highly urbanized and one of the most advanced regions in terms of environmental policies, there is considerable diversity in the regional distribution, ambition and scope of climate change responses. This paper explores potential factors contributing to such diversity in 200 large and medium-sized cities across 11 European countries. We statistically investigate institutional, socio-economic, environmental and vulnerability characteristics of cities as potential drivers of or barriers to the development of urban climate change plans. Our results show that factors such as membership of climate networks, population size, GDP per capita and adaptive capacity act as drivers of mitigation and adaptation plans. By contrast, factors such as the unemployment rate, warmer summers, proximity to the coast and projected exposure to future climate impacts act as barriers. We see that, overall, it is predominantly large and prosperous cities that engage in climate planning, while vulnerable cities and those at risk of severe climate impacts in the future are less active. Our analysis suggests that climate change planning in European cities is not proactive, i.e. not significantly influenced by anticipated future impacts. Instead, we found that the current adaptive capacity of a city significantly relates to climate planning. Along with the need to further explore these relations, we see a need for more economic and institutional support for smaller and less resourceful cities and those at high risk from climate change impacts in the future.

Predicting future staffing needs at teaching hospitals: use of an analytical program with multiple variables.

PubMed

Mitchell, Christine C; Ashley, Stanley W; Zinner, Michael J; Moore, Francis D

2007-04-01

To develop a model to predict future staffing for the surgery service at a teaching hospital. Tertiary hospital. A computer model with potential future variables was constructed. Some of the variables were distribution of resident staff, fellows, and physician extenders; salary/wages; work hours; educational value of rotations; work units, inpatient wards, and clinics; future volume growth; and efficiency savings. Outcomes Number of staff to be hired, staffing expense, and educational impact. On a busy general surgery service, we estimated the impact of changes in resident work hours, service growth, and workflow efficiency in the next 5 years. Projecting a reduction in resident duty hours to 60 hours per week will require the hiring of 10 physician assistants at a cost of $1 134 000, a cost that is increased by $441 000 when hiring hospitalists instead. Implementing a day of didactic and simulator time (10 hours) will further increase the costs by $568 000. A 10% improvement in the efficiency of floor care, as might be gained by advanced information technology capability or by regionalization of patients, can mitigate these expenses by as much as 21%. On the other hand, a modest annual growth of 2% will increase the costs by $715 000 to $2 417 000. To simply replace residents with alternative providers requires large amounts of human and fiscal capital. The potential for simple efficiencies to mitigate some of this expense suggests that traditional patterns of care in teaching hospitals will have to change in response to educational mandates.

Which downscaled rainfall data for climate change impact studies in urban areas? Review of current approaches and trends

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gooré Bi, Eustache; Gachon, Philippe; Vrac, Mathieu; Monette, Frédéric

2017-02-01

Changes in extreme precipitation should be one of the primary impacts of climate change (CC) in urban areas. To assess these impacts, rainfall data from climate models are commonly used. The main goal of this paper is to report on the state of knowledge and recent works on the study of CC impacts with a focus on urban areas, in order to produce an integrated review of various approaches to which future studies can then be compared or constructed. Model output statistics (MOS) methods are increasingly used in the literature to study the impacts of CC in urban settings. A review of previous works highlights the non-stationarity nature of future climate data, underscoring the need to revise urban drainage system design criteria. A comparison of these studies is made difficult, however, by the numerous sources of uncertainty arising from a plethora of assumptions, scenarios, and modeling options. All the methods used do, however, predict increased extreme precipitation in the future, suggesting potential risks of combined sewer overflow frequencies, flooding, and back-up in existing sewer systems in urban areas. Future studies must quantify more accurately the different sources of uncertainty by improving downscaling and correction methods. New research is necessary to improve the data validation process, an aspect that is seldom reported in the literature. Finally, the potential application of non-stationarity conditions into generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution should be assessed more closely, which will require close collaboration between engineers, hydrologists, statisticians, and climatologists, thus contributing to the ongoing reflection on this issue of social concern.

Proposal of global flood vulnerability scenarios for evaluating future potential flood losses

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Kinoshita, Y.; Tanoue, M.; Watanabe, S.; Hirabayashi, Y.

2015-12-01

Flooding is one of the most hazardous and damaging natural disasters causing serious economic loss and casualties across the world (Jongman et al., 2015). Previous studies showed that the global temperature increase affects regional weather pattern, and several general circulation model (GCM) simulations suggest the increase of flood events in both frequency and magnitude in many parts of the world (Hirabayashi et al., 2013). Effective adaptation to potential flood risks under the warming climate requires an in-depth understanding of both the physical and socioeconomic contributors of the flood risk. To assess the realistic future potential flood risk, future sophisticated vulnerability scenarios associated with the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) are necessary. In this study we propose a new future vulnerability scenarios in mortality. Our vulnerability scenarios are constructed based on the modeled flood exposure (population potentially suffered by flooding) and a past from 1980 to 2005. All the flood fatality data were classified according to four income levels (high, mid-high, mid-low and low). Our proposed scenarios have three pathways regarding to SSPs; High efficiency (HE) scenario (SSP1, SSP4 (rich country) and SSP5), Medium efficiency (ME) scenario (SSP2), and Low efficiency (LE) scenario (SSP3 and SSP4 (poor country)). The maximum mortality protection level on each category was detected by applying exponential curve fitting with offset term. Slopes in the HE scenario are assumed to be equal to slopes estimated by regression analysis in each category. The slope in the HE scenario is defined by the mean value of all countries' slope value that is approximately -0.33 mortality decreases per year. The EM-DAT mortality data shows a decreasing trend in time in almost all of the countries. Although mortalities in some countries show an increasing trend, this is because these countries were affected by once-in-hundred-years floods after 1990's. The slope in the ME scenario are half of that in the HE scenario, and a quarter in the LE scenario. In addition, we set three categories depending on mortality level. Our proposed vulnerability scenarios would enable us to reasonably replicate self-sustained vulnerability change against flood hazard associated with the SSPs.

Response of North American freshwater lakes to simulated future climates

USGS Publications Warehouse

Hostetler, S.W.; Small, E.E.

1999-01-01

We apply a physically based lake model to assess the response of North American lakes to future climate conditions as portrayed by the transient trace-gas simulations conducted with the Max Planck Institute (ECHAM4) and the Canadian Climate Center (CGCM1) atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (A/OGCMs). To quantify spatial patterns of lake responses (temperature, mixing, ice cover, evaporation) we ran the lake model for theoretical lakes of specified area, depth, and transparency over a uniformly spaced (50 km) grid. The simulations were conducted for two 10-year periods that represent present climatic conditions and those around the time of CO2 doubling. Although the climate model output produces simulated lake responses that differ in specific regional details, there is broad agreement with regard to the direction and area of change. In particular, lake temperatures are generally warmer in the future as a result of warmer climatic conditions and a substantial loss (> 100 days/yr) of winter ice cover. Simulated summer lake temperatures are higher than 30??C ever the Midwest and south, suggesting the potential for future disturbance of existing aquatic ecosystems. Overall increases in lake evaporation combine with disparate changes in A/OGCM precipitation to produce future changes in net moisture (precipitation minus evaporation) that are of less fidelity than those of lake temperature.

Age differences in the understanding of wealth and power: the mediating role of future time perspective.

PubMed

Li, Tianyuan; Tsang, Vivian Hiu-Ling

2016-12-01

Individuals' understanding of wealth and power largely determines their use of resources. Moreover, the age range of wealth and power holders is increasing in modern societies. Thus, the current study examines how people of different ages understand wealth and power. As varying future time perspective is related to changes in prioritised life goals, it was tested as a potential mediator of the age differences. A total of 133 participants aged 18-78 years were asked 8 open-ended questions regarding their understanding of the possible use and desired use of wealth and power, after which they reported their future time perspective. Compared with possible use, the participants mentioned relatively more prosocial elements when they talked about their desired use of the resources, especially power. The older adults expressed more prosocial understanding in regard to the desired use of wealth and the possible use of power compared to their younger counterparts. The age differences were fully mediated by future time perspective. The results suggest that age is a critical factor that influences individuals' conceptualisation of wealth and power. Life-span developmental stage and future time perspective are important factors to consider for explaining individual differences in the exercise of wealth and power and for promoting their prosocial usage.

Meeting our need for electric energy: the role of nuclear power

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Not Available

1984-07-01

This report focuses on the projected long-term growth of electric demand and the resultant need for new electric generating capacity through the year 2010. It summarizes the results of several technical and economic analyses done over the past two years to present two alternative scenarios for the future growth of nuclear energy in the United States. The first of these scenarios is based on a reference assumption of continued economic recovery and growth, while the second assumes a more vigorous economic recovery. These alternative scenarios reflect both the role that electricity could play in assuring the future economic wellbeing ofmore » the United States and the role that nuclear power could play in meeting future electricity needs. The scenarios do not project an expected future; rather, they describe a future that can be achieved only if US industry is revitalized in several key areas and if current obstacles to construction and operation of nuclear power plants are removed. This report underscores the need for renewed domestic industrialization as well as the need for government and industry to take steps to allow nuclear energy to fulfill its original potential. Further, it suggests some specific actions that must be taken if these goals are to be met.« less

Integrating horizon scanning and strategic risk prioritisation using a weight of evidence framework to inform policy decisions.

PubMed

Garnett, K; Lickorish, F A; Rocks, S A; Prpich, G; Rathe, A A; Pollard, S J T

2016-08-01

Poor connection between data on emerging issues and credible policy decisions continues to challenge governments, and is only likely to grow as demands on time and resources increase. Here we summarise recent efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation approaches to better connect emerging issues to the political discourse on environmental and food-related issues. Our categorisation of insights including potential future risks and opportunities to inform policy discussions has emerged from a structured three-year programme of horizon scanning for a UK pan-governmental futures partnership led by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra). Our efforts to integrate horizon scanning and risk prioritisation, utilising a qualitative weight of evidence framework, has created a systematic process for identifying all signals of potential future change with significant impact for the strategic mission and underlying values of policy actors. Our approach encourages an exploration of factors out of the control of organisations, recognising that resilience depends on the flexibility of management strategies and the preparedness to deal with a variety of unexpected outcomes. We discuss how this approach addresses key cultural and evaluative challenges that policy actors have had in embedding horizon scanning in evidence-based policy processes, and suggest further developments to build confidence in the use of horizon scanning for strategic planning. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying the Global Fresh Water Budget: Capabilities from Current and Future Satellite Sensors

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hildebrand, Peter; Zaitchik, Benjamin

2007-01-01

The global water cycle is complex and its components are difficult to measure, particularly at the global scales and with the precision needed for assessing climate impacts. Recent advances in satellite observational capabilities, however, are greatly improving our knowledge of the key terms in the fresh water flux budget. Many components of the of the global water budget, e.g. precipitation, atmospheric moisture profiles, soil moisture, snow cover, sea ice are now routinely measured globally using instruments on satellites such as TRMM, AQUA, TERRA, GRACE, and ICESat, as well as on operational satellites. New techniques, many using data assimilation approaches, are providing pathways toward measuring snow water equivalent, evapotranspiration, ground water, ice mass, as well as improving the measurement quality for other components of the global water budget. This paper evaluates these current and developing satellite capabilities to observe the global fresh water budget, then looks forward to evaluate the potential for improvements that may result from future space missions as detailed by the US Decadal Survey, and operational plans. Based on these analyses, and on the goal of improved knowledge of the global fresh water budget under the effects of climate change, we suggest some priorities for the future, based on new approaches that may provide the improved measurements and the analyses needed to understand and observe the potential speed-up of the global water cycle under the effects of climate change.

The benefits from complying with the framework convention on tobacco control: a SimSmoke analysis of 15 European nations.

PubMed

Levy, David T; Huang, An-Tsun; Currie, Laura M; Clancy, Luke

2014-12-01

This article compares the predicted impact of tobacco tax increases alone and as part of a comprehensive tobacco control strategy on smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) across 15 European countries. Country-specific population, smoking prevalence and policy data with modified parameter values have been applied to the previously validated SimSmoke model for 10 high-income and 5 middle-income European nations. The impact of past and potential future policies is modelled. Models generally validated well across the 15 countries, and showed the impact of past policies. Without stronger future policies, 44 million lives would be lost due to smoking across the 15 study countries between 2011 and 2040, but effective policies could avert 7.7 million of those premature deaths. Results suggest that past policies have been effective in reducing smoking rates, but there is also a strong potential for future policies consistent with the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. When specific taxes are increased to 70% of retail price, strong smoke-free air laws, youth access laws and marketing restrictions are enforced, stronger health warnings are implemented, and cessation treatment and media campaigns are supported, smoking prevalence and SADs will fall substantially in European countries. Published by Oxford University Press in association with The London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine © The Author 2013; all rights reserved.

Multiple stressors and the potential for synergistic loss of New England salt marshes

PubMed Central

Angelini, Christine; Bertness, Mark D.

2017-01-01

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors are converging on coastal ecosystems worldwide. Understanding how these stressors interact to affect ecosystem structure and function has immediate implications for coastal planning, however few studies quantify stressor interactions. We examined past and potential future interactions between two leading stressors on New England salt marshes: sea-level rise and marsh crab (Sesarma reticulatum) grazing driven low marsh die-off. Geospatial analyses reveal that crab-driven die-off has led to an order of magnitude more marsh loss than sea-level rise between 2005 and 2013. However, field transplant experimental results suggest that sea-level rise will facilitate crab expansion into higher elevation marsh platforms by inundating and gradually softening now-tough high marsh peat, exposing large areas to crab-driven die-off. Taking interactive effects of marsh softening and concomitant overgrazing into account, we estimate that even modest levels of sea-level rise will lead to levels of salt marsh habitat loss that are 3x greater than the additive effects of sea-level rise and crab-driven die-off would predict. These findings highlight the importance of multiple stressor studies in enhancing mechanistic understanding of ecosystem vulnerabilities to future stress scenarios and encourage managers to focus on ameliorating local stressors to break detrimental synergisms, reduce future ecosystem loss, and enhance ecosystem resilience to global change. PMID:28859097

Control of virus diseases in soybeans.

PubMed

Hill, John H; Whitham, Steven A

2014-01-01

Soybean, one of the world's most important sources of animal feed and vegetable oil, can be infected by numerous viruses. However, only a small number of the viruses that can potentially infect soybean are considered as major economic problems to soybean production. Therefore, we consider management options available to control diseases caused by eight viruses that cause, or have the potential to cause, significant economic loss to producers. We summarize management tactics in use and suggest direction for the future. Clearly, the most important tactic is disease resistance. Several resistance genes are available for three of the eight viruses discussed. Other options include use of virus-free seed and avoidance of alternative virus hosts when planting. Attempts at arthropod vector control have generally not provided consistent disease management. In the future, disease management will be considerably enhanced by knowledge of the interaction between soybean and viral proteins. Identification of genes required for soybean defense may represent key regulatory hubs that will enhance or broaden the spectrum of basal resistance to viruses. It may be possible to create new recessive or dominant negative alleles of host proteins that do not support viral functions but perform normal cellular function. The future approach to virus control based on gene editing or exploiting allelic diversity points to necessary research into soybean-virus interactions. This will help to generate the knowledge needed for rational design of durable resistance that will maximize global production.

Multiple stressors and the potential for synergistic loss of New England salt marshes.

PubMed

Crotty, Sinead M; Angelini, Christine; Bertness, Mark D

2017-01-01

Climate change and other anthropogenic stressors are converging on coastal ecosystems worldwide. Understanding how these stressors interact to affect ecosystem structure and function has immediate implications for coastal planning, however few studies quantify stressor interactions. We examined past and potential future interactions between two leading stressors on New England salt marshes: sea-level rise and marsh crab (Sesarma reticulatum) grazing driven low marsh die-off. Geospatial analyses reveal that crab-driven die-off has led to an order of magnitude more marsh loss than sea-level rise between 2005 and 2013. However, field transplant experimental results suggest that sea-level rise will facilitate crab expansion into higher elevation marsh platforms by inundating and gradually softening now-tough high marsh peat, exposing large areas to crab-driven die-off. Taking interactive effects of marsh softening and concomitant overgrazing into account, we estimate that even modest levels of sea-level rise will lead to levels of salt marsh habitat loss that are 3x greater than the additive effects of sea-level rise and crab-driven die-off would predict. These findings highlight the importance of multiple stressor studies in enhancing mechanistic understanding of ecosystem vulnerabilities to future stress scenarios and encourage managers to focus on ameliorating local stressors to break detrimental synergisms, reduce future ecosystem loss, and enhance ecosystem resilience to global change.

Current and Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Global Crop Intensification and Expansion

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Carlson, K. M.; Gerber, J. S.; Mueller, N. D.; O'Connell, C.; West, P. C.

2014-12-01

Food systems currently contribute up to one-third of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, and these emissions are expected to rise as demand for agricultural products increases. Thus, improving the greenhouse gas emissions efficiency of agriculture - the tons or kilocalories of production per ton of CO2 equivalent emissions - will be critical to support a resilient future global system. Here, we model and evaluate global, 2000-era, spatially explicit relationships between a suite of greenhouse gas emissions from various agronomic practices (i.e., fertilizer application, peatland draining, and rice cultivation) and crop yields. Then, we predict potential emissions from future crop production increases achieved through intensification and extensification, including CO2 emissions from croplands replacing non-urban land cover. We find that 2000-era yield-scaled agronomic emissions are highly heterogeneous across crops types, crop management practices, and regions. Rice agriculture produces more total CO2-equivalent emissions than any other crop. Moreover, inundated rice in just a few countries contributes the vast majority of these rice emissions. Crops such as sunflower and cotton have low efficiency on a caloric basis. Our results suggest that intensification tends to be a more efficient pathway to boost greenhouse gas emissions efficiency than expansion. We conclude by discussing potential crop- and region-specific agricultural development pathways that may boost the greenhouse gas emissions efficiency of agriculture.

Inbreeding avoidance influences the viability of reintroduced populations of African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus).

PubMed

Becker, Penny A; Miller, Philip S; Gunther, Micaela Szykman; Somers, Michael J; Wildt, David E; Maldonado, Jesús E

2012-01-01

The conservation of many fragmented and small populations of endangered African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) relies on understanding the natural processes affecting genetic diversity, demographics, and future viability. We used extensive behavioural, life-history, and genetic data from reintroduced African wild dogs in South Africa to (1) test for inbreeding avoidance via mate selection and (2) model the potential consequences of avoidance on population persistence. Results suggested that wild dogs avoided mating with kin. Inbreeding was rare in natal packs, after reproductive vacancies, and between sibling cohorts (observed on 0.8%, 12.5%, and 3.8% of occasions, respectively). Only one of the six (16.7%) breeding pairs confirmed as third-order (or closer) kin consisted of animals that were familiar with each other, while no other paired individuals had any prior association. Computer-simulated populations allowed to experience inbreeding had only a 1.6% probability of extinction within 100 years, whereas all populations avoiding incestuous matings became extinct due to the absence of unrelated mates. Populations that avoided mating with first-order relatives became extinct after 63 years compared with persistence of 37 and 19 years for those also prevented from second-order and third-order matings, respectively. Although stronger inbreeding avoidance maintains significantly more genetic variation, our results demonstrate the potentially severe demographic impacts of reduced numbers of suitable mates on the future viability of small, isolated wild dog populations. The rapid rate of population decline suggests that extinction may occur before inbreeding depression is observed.

Transcranial magnetic stimulation in autism spectrum disorder: Challenges, promise, and roadmap for future research

PubMed Central

Oberman, Lindsay M.; Enticott, Peter G.; Casanova, Manuel F.; Rotenberg, Alexander; Pascual-Leone, Alvaro; McCracken, James T.

2016-01-01

Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) is a behaviorally defined complex neurodevelopmental syndrome characterized by impairments in social communication, by the presence of restricted and repetitive behaviors, interests and activities, and by abnormalities in sensory reactivity. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS) is a promising, emerging tool for the study and potential treatment of ASD. Recent studies suggest that TMS measures provide rapid and noninvasive pathophysiological ASD biomarkers. Furthermore, repetitive TMS (rTMS) may represent a novel treatment strategy for reducing some of the core and associated ASD symptoms. However, the available literature on the TMS use in ASD is preliminary, composed of studies with methodological limitations. Thus, off-label clinical rTMS use for therapeutic interventions in ASD without an investigational device exemption and outside of an IRB approved research trial is premature pending further, adequately powered and controlled trials. Leaders in this field have gathered annually for a two-day conference (prior to the 2014 and 2015 International Meeting for Autism Research, IMFAR) to share recent progress, promote collaboration across laboratories, and establish consensus on protocols. Here we review the literature in the use of TMS in ASD in the context of the unique challenges required for the study and exploration of treatment strategies in this population. We also suggest future directions for this field of investigations. While its true potential in ASD has yet to be delineated, TMS represents an innovative research tool and a novel, possibly transformative approach to the treatment of neurodevelopmental disorders. PMID:26536383

Multilocus adaptation associated with heat resistance in reef-building corals.

PubMed

Bay, Rachael A; Palumbi, Stephen R

2014-12-15

The evolution of tolerance to future climate change depends on the standing stock of genetic variation for resistance to climate-related impacts, but genes contributing to climate tolerance in wild populations are poorly described in number and effect. Physiology and gene expression patterns have shown that corals living in naturally high-temperature microclimates are more resistant to bleaching because of both acclimation and fixed effects, including adaptation. To search for potential genetic correlates of these fixed effects, we genotyped 15,399 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 23 individual tabletop corals, Acropora hyacinthus, within a natural temperature mosaic in backreef lagoons on Ofu Island, American Samoa. Despite overall lack of population substructure, we identified 114 highly divergent SNPs as candidates for environmental selection, via multiple stringent outlier tests, and correlations with temperature. Corals from the warmest reef location had higher minor allele frequencies across these candidate SNPs, a pattern not seen for noncandidate loci. Furthermore, within backreef pools, colonies in the warmest microclimates had a higher number and frequency of alternative alleles at candidate loci. These data suggest mild selection for alternate alleles at many loci in these corals during high heat episodes and possible maintenance of extensive polymorphism through multilocus balancing selection in a heterogeneous environment. In this case, a natural population harbors a reservoir of alleles preadapted to high temperatures, suggesting potential for future evolutionary response to climate change. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The potential role of regret in the physician-patient relationship: insights from neuroeconomics.

PubMed

Coricelli, Giorgio

2008-01-01

The aim of the chapter is to show how two important facts of physicians' behavior, (i) their tendency to "create" the demand for medical practices, and (ii) their delay and reluctance in using new treatments and therapies, can be explained with the lens of the neuroeconomics research on the neural and behavioral basis of regret. This chapter adopts a neuroeconomics perspective on decision-making, asking how the brain represents values and generates emotional states, which consequently influence choices. In the line of recent work on emotion-based decision-making, we expect to be able to characterize the brain areas underlying the studied processes and to specify the functional relationship between rational decision-making and the emotional influences that modulate these decisional processes. Neurobiological approaches can contribute significantly to a better understanding of the cognitive and emotional underpinnings of medical decision-making, from how physicians might evaluate and anticipate the effect of alternative therapies, to how patients might anticipate future consequences of their health choice. This can explain some features of the doctor-patient relationship which are not consistent with simple maximization models. Our findings suggest that physicians' behavior can be often explained by regret avoidance. Likewise, they suggest that physicians play as actual agents when they make medical decisions that will affect the future well-being of their patients. We limited our analysis to the potential role of anticipated regret; therefore, this chapter neglects many important factors of the health sector.

Optimizing Endoscope Reprocessing Resources Via Process Flow Queuing Analysis.

PubMed

Seelen, Mark T; Friend, Tynan H; Levine, Wilton C

2018-05-04

The Massachusetts General Hospital (MGH) is merging its older endoscope processing facilities into a single new facility that will enable high-level disinfection of endoscopes for both the ORs and Endoscopy Suite, leveraging economies of scale for improved patient care and optimal use of resources. Finalized resource planning was necessary for the merging of facilities to optimize staffing and make final equipment selections to support the nearly 33,000 annual endoscopy cases. To accomplish this, we employed operations management methodologies, analyzing the physical process flow of scopes throughout the existing Endoscopy Suite and ORs and mapping the future state capacity of the new reprocessing facility. Further, our analysis required the incorporation of historical case and reprocessing volumes in a multi-server queuing model to identify any potential wait times as a result of the new reprocessing cycle. We also performed sensitivity analysis to understand the impact of future case volume growth. We found that our future-state reprocessing facility, given planned capital expenditures for automated endoscope reprocessors (AERs) and pre-processing sinks, could easily accommodate current scope volume well within the necessary pre-cleaning-to-sink reprocessing time limit recommended by manufacturers. Further, in its current planned state, our model suggested that the future endoscope reprocessing suite at MGH could support an increase in volume of at least 90% over the next several years. Our work suggests that with simple mathematical analysis of historic case data, significant changes to a complex perioperative environment can be made with ease while keeping patient safety as the top priority.

Children with Specific Language Impairment and Their Families: A Future View of Nature Plus Nurture and New Technologies for Comprehensive Language Intervention Strategies.

PubMed

Rice, Mabel L

2016-11-01

Future perspectives on children with language impairments are framed from what is known about children with specific language impairment (SLI). A summary of the current state of services is followed by discussion of how these children can be overlooked and misunderstood and consideration of why it is so hard for some children to acquire language when it is effortless for most children. Genetic influences are highlighted, with the suggestion that nature plus nurture should be considered in present as well as future intervention approaches. A nurture perspective highlights the family context of the likelihood of SLI for some of the children. Future models of the causal pathways may provide more specific information to guide gene-treatment decisions, in ways parallel to current personalized medicine approaches. Future treatment options can build on the potential of electronic technologies and social media to provide personalized treatment methods available at a time and place convenient for the person to use as often as desired. The speech-language pathologist could oversee a wide range of treatment options and monitor evidence provided electronically to evaluate progress and plan future treatment steps. Most importantly, future methods can provide lifelong language acquisition activities that maintain the privacy and dignity of persons with language impairment, and in so doing will in turn enhance the effectiveness of speech-language pathologists. Thieme Medical Publishers 333 Seventh Avenue, New York, NY 10001, USA.

Simulated big sagebrush regeneration supports predicted changes at the trailing and leading edges of distribution shifts

USGS Publications Warehouse

Schlaepfer, Daniel R.; Taylor, Kyle A.; Pennington, Victoria E.; Nelson, Kellen N.; Martin, Trace E.; Rottler, Caitlin M.; Lauenroth, William K.; Bradford, John B.

2015-01-01

Many semi-arid plant communities in western North America are dominated by big sagebrush. These ecosystems are being reduced in extent and quality due to economic development, invasive species, and climate change. These pervasive modifications have generated concern about the long-term viability of sagebrush habitat and sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (notably greater sage-grouse), highlighting the need for better understanding of the future big sagebrush distribution, particularly at the species' range margins. These leading and trailing edges of potential climate-driven sagebrush distribution shifts are likely to be areas most sensitive to climate change. We used a process-based regeneration model for big sagebrush, which simulates potential germination and seedling survival in response to climatic and edaphic conditions and tested expectations about current and future regeneration responses at trailing and leading edges that were previously identified using traditional species distribution models. Our results confirmed expectations of increased probability of regeneration at the leading edge and decreased probability of regeneration at the trailing edge below current levels. Our simulations indicated that soil water dynamics at the leading edge became more similar to the typical seasonal ecohydrological conditions observed within the current range of big sagebrush ecosystems. At the trailing edge, an increased winter and spring dryness represented a departure from conditions typically supportive of big sagebrush. Our results highlighted that minimum and maximum daily temperatures as well as soil water recharge and summer dry periods are important constraints for big sagebrush regeneration. Overall, our results confirmed previous predictions, i.e., we see consistent changes in areas identified as trailing and leading edges; however, we also identified potential local refugia within the trailing edge, mostly at sites at higher elevation. Decreasing regeneration probability at the trailing edge underscores the Schlaepfer et al. Future regeneration potential of big sagebrush potential futility of efforts to preserve and/or restore big sagebrush in these areas. Conversely, increasing regeneration probability at the leading edge suggest a growing potential for conflicts in management goals between maintaining existing grasslands by preventing sagebrush expansion versus accepting a shift in plant community composition to sagebrush dominance.

Quantitative comparison of cognitive behavioral therapy and music therapy research: a methodological best-practices analysis to guide future investigation for adult psychiatric patients.

PubMed

Silverman, Michael J

2008-01-01

While the music therapy profession is relatively young and small in size, it can treat a variety of clinical populations and has established a diverse research base. However, although the profession originated working with persons diagnosed with mental illnesses, there is a considerable lack of quantitative research concerning the effects of music therapy with this population. Music therapy clinicians and researchers have reported on this lack of evidence and the difficulty in conducting psychosocial research on their interventions (Choi, 1997; Silverman, 2003a). While published studies have provided suggestions for future research, no studies have provided detailed propositions for the methodology and design of meticulous high quality randomized controlled psychiatric music therapy research. How do other psychotherapies accomplish their databases and could the music therapy field borrow from their rigorous "methodological best practices" to strengthen its own literature base? Therefore, as the National Institutes of Mental Health state the treatment of choice for evidence-based psychotherapy is cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT), aspects of this psychotherapy's literature base were analyzed. The purpose of this literature analysis was to (a) analyze and identify components of high-quality quantitative CBT research for adult psychiatric consumers, (b) analyze and identify the variables and other elements of existing quantitative psychiatric music therapy research for adult consumers, and (c) compare the two data sets to identify the best methodological designs and variables for future quantitative music therapy research with the mental health population. A table analyzing randomized and thoroughly controlled studies involving the use of CBT for persons with severe mental illnesses is included to determine chief components of high-quality experimental research designs and implementation of quantitative clinical research. The table also shows the same analyzed components for existing quantitative psychiatric music therapy research with adult consumers, thus highlighting potential areas and elements for future investigations. A second table depicts a number of potential dependent measures and their sources to be evaluated in future music therapy studies. A third table providing suggestions for future research is derived from a synthesis of the tables and is included to guide researchers and encourage the advancement and expansion of the current literature base. The body of the paper is a discussion of the results of the literature analysis derived from the tables, meta-analyses, and reviews of literature. It is hoped that this report will lead to the addition of future high-quality quantitative research to the psychiatric music therapy literature base and thus provide evidence-based services to as many persons with mental illnesses as possible.

Duty hour restrictions: organizational dynamics, systems issues, and the impact on faculty.

PubMed

Bandiera, Glen; Hynes, Melissa Kennedy; Spadafora, Salvatore M

2014-01-01

The potential impact of resident duty hour restrictions on faculty is likely significant; however, the extent of this impact has still not been well documented. We undertook a narrative review of the literature to determine the magnitude of that potential impact and the nature of the evolving discourse related to faculty members as individuals. The literature provides an inconsistent picture of the impact of duty hour restrictions on faculty. While some studies have reported a significant increase in faculty workload, others suggest that the impact of duty hour restrictions has been minimal. Some papers suggest that duty hour restrictions may fundamentally change the nature of resident-teacher interactions and, as a result, will necessitate significant changes to the way education is delivered. Overall, the majority of issues of concern relate to one of the following: volume and composition of work, impact on faculty career choice, evolving perceptions of residents as learners, and the need to find an appropriate balance between learning and the quality and quantity of patient care. In describing these themes we identify some potential solutions and future directions for reconciling duty hour restrictions with faculty perceptions, anxieties, and desired outcomes.

Potential Expanded Indications for Neprilysin Inhibitors

PubMed Central

Riddell, Elizabeth; Vader, Justin M.

2017-01-01

Purpose of review The goal of this article is to review potential expanded indications for neprilysin inhibitors. This article reviews the rationale and design for ongoing and future trials of sacubitril/valsartan in cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular disease. Recent findings Randomized trial data are lacking for use of sacubitril/valsartan in acute heart failure and advanced heart failure. Mechanistic data from animal studies suggest a role for neprilysin inhibition in the treatment of post-myocardial infarction systolic dysfunction and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction. Beyond the cardiovascular system, renal and neurological function may be impacted by neprilysin inhibition. Forthcoming randomized trials will address the clinical impact of sacubitril/valsartan on these conditions. Summary Neprolysin inhibition with sacubitril/valsartan offers a new therapeutic strategy with a broad range of potential therapeutic actions. In PARADIGM-HF, the combination of neprolysin and RAAS inhibition was proven to be superior to enalapril for patients with stable NYHA class II–III heart failure and reduced left ventricular ejection fraction. Preliminary data suggests it may also have a role in other cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular disease. Several ongoing and planned studies will determine the extent of its benefit for these other indications. PMID:28281174

Duty hour restrictions: organizational dynamics, systems issues, and the impact on faculty

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

The potential impact of resident duty hour restrictions on faculty is likely significant; however, the extent of this impact has still not been well documented. We undertook a narrative review of the literature to determine the magnitude of that potential impact and the nature of the evolving discourse related to faculty members as individuals. The literature provides an inconsistent picture of the impact of duty hour restrictions on faculty. While some studies have reported a significant increase in faculty workload, others suggest that the impact of duty hour restrictions has been minimal. Some papers suggest that duty hour restrictions may fundamentally change the nature of resident–teacher interactions and, as a result, will necessitate significant changes to the way education is delivered. Overall, the majority of issues of concern relate to one of the following: volume and composition of work, impact on faculty career choice, evolving perceptions of residents as learners, and the need to find an appropriate balance between learning and the quality and quantity of patient care. In describing these themes we identify some potential solutions and future directions for reconciling duty hour restrictions with faculty perceptions, anxieties, and desired outcomes. PMID:25558952

Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe - comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations.

PubMed

Ruosch, Melanie; Spahni, Renato; Joos, Fortunat; Henne, Paul D; van der Knaap, Willem O; Tinner, Willy

2016-02-01

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought-sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX-Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX-Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st-century multimodel ensemble results for the high-emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north-western and southern Europe. Mid-Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling-Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north-east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer-than-present conditions in central Europe. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Anticipated debt and financial stress in medical students.

PubMed

Morra, Dante J; Regehr, Glenn; Ginsburg, Shiphra

2008-01-01

While medical student debt is increasing, the effect of debt on student well-being and performance remains unclear. As a part of a larger study examining medical student views of their future profession, data were collected to examine the role that current and anticipated debt has in predicting stress among medical students. A survey was administered to medical students in all four years at the University of Toronto. Of the 804 potential respondents across the four years of training, 549 surveys had sufficient data for inclusion in this analysis, for a response rate of 68%. Through multiple regression analysis, we evaluated the correlation between current and anticipated debt and financial stress. Although perceived financial stress correlates with both current and anticipated debt levels, anticipated debt was able to account for an additional 11.5% of variance in reported stress when compared to current debt levels alone. This study demonstrates a relationship between perceived financial stress and debt levels, and suggests that anticipated debt levels might be a more robust metric to capture financial burden, as it standardizes for year of training and captures future financial liabilities (future tuition and other future expenses).

More than meets the eye: Using cognitive work analysis to identify design requirements for future rail level crossing systems.

PubMed

Salmon, Paul M; Lenné, Michael G; Read, Gemma J M; Mulvihill, Christine M; Cornelissen, Miranda; Walker, Guy H; Young, Kristie L; Stevens, Nicholas; Stanton, Neville A

2016-03-01

An increasing intensity of operations means that the longstanding safety issue of rail level crossings is likely to become worse in the transport systems of the future. It has been suggested that the failure to prevent collisions may be, in part, due to a lack of systems thinking during design, crash analysis, and countermeasure development. This paper presents a systems analysis of current active rail level crossing systems in Victoria, Australia that was undertaken to identify design requirements to improve safety in future rail level crossing environments. Cognitive work analysis was used to analyse rail level crossing systems using data derived from a range of activities. Overall the analysis identified a range of instances where modification or redesign in line with systems thinking could potentially improve behaviour and safety. A notable finding is that there are opportunities for redesign outside of the physical rail level crossing infrastructure, including improved data systems, in-vehicle warnings and modifications to design processes, standards and guidelines. The implications for future rail level crossing systems are discussed. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd and The Ergonomics Society. All rights reserved.

Biological challenges of true space settlement

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mankins, John C.; Mankins, Willa M.; Walter, Helen

2018-05-01

"Space Settlements" - i.e., permanent human communities beyond Earth's biosphere - have been discussed within the space advocacy community since the 1970s. Now, with the end of the International Space Station (ISS) program fast approaching (planned for 2024-2025) and the advent of low cost Earth-to-orbit (ETO) transportation in the near future, the concept is coming once more into mainstream. Considerable attention has been focused on various issues associated with the engineering and human health considerations of space settlement such as artificial gravity and radiation shielding. However, relatively little attention has been given to the biological implications of a self-sufficient space settlement. Three fundamental questions are explored in this paper: (1) what are the biological "foundations" of truly self-sufficient space settlements in the foreseeable future, (2) what is the minimum scale for such self-sustaining human settlements, and (3) what are the integrated biologically-driven system requirements for such settlements? The paper examines briefly the implications of the answers to these questions in relevant potential settings (including free space, the Moon and Mars). Finally, this paper suggests relevant directions for future research and development in order for such space settlements to become viable in the future.

Evaluation of advanced airship concepts

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Joner, B. A.; Schneider, J. J.

1975-01-01

A historical overview of the airship, technical and operational characteristics of conventional and hybrid concepts, and the results of a parametric design analysis and evaluation are presented. The lift capabilities of certain buoyant fluids for a hypothetical 16 million cu.ft. volume airship are compared. The potential advanced airship concepts are surveyed, followed by a discussion of the six configurations: conventional nonrigid, conventional rigid, Deltoid (Dynairship), Guppoid (Megalifter), Helipsoid, and Heli-Stat. It is suggested that a partially buoyant Helipsoid concept of the optimum buoyancy ratio has the potential to solve the problems facing future airship development, such as Ballast and Ballast Recovery System, Full Low-Speed Controllability, Susceptibility to Wind/Gusting, Weather/Icing Constraints, Ground Handling/Hangaring, and Direct/Indirect Operating Costs.

Feasibility and Potential Role of Ferumoxytol-enhanced Neuroimaging in HIV-associated Neurocognitive Disorder

PubMed Central

Nakamoto, Beau K.; Shikuma, Cecilia M.; Ogata-Arakaki, Debra; Umaki, Tracie; Neuwelt, Edward A.; Shiramizu, Bruce T.; Chow, Dominic C.; Parikh, Nisha I.; Kallianpur, Kalpana J.; Hamilton, Bronwyn E.

2013-01-01

We assessed ferumoxytol-enhanced brain MRI to identify monocyte/macrophage accumulation in HIV-associated neurocognitive disorder (HAND). Four HIV-infected subjects with undetectable HIV RNA levels on antiretroviral therapy, HIV DNA level in CD14+ cells ≥ 10 copies/106 cells, and cognitive impairment underwent ferumoxtyol-enhanced brain MRI. On post-ferumoxytol susceptibility-weighted images, all HIV-infected subjects demonstrated a diffuse “tram track” appearance in the perivascular regions of cortical and deep white matter vessels suggesting ferumoxytol uptake in monocytes/macrophages. This finding was not present in a HIV-seronegative control. While ferumoxytol may have potential as an imaging biomarker for monocytes/macrophage accumulation in patients with HAND, future study is needed. PMID:24129909

Spirulina in Clinical Practice: Evidence-Based Human Applications

PubMed Central

Karkos, P. D.; Leong, S. C.; Karkos, C. D.; Sivaji, N.; Assimakopoulos, D. A.

2011-01-01

Spirulina or Arthrospira is a blue-green alga that became famous after it was successfully used by NASA as a dietary supplement for astronauts on space missions. It has the ability to modulate immune functions and exhibits anti-inflammatory properties by inhibiting the release of histamine by mast cells. Multiple studies investigating the efficacy and the potential clinical applications of Spirulina in treating several diseases have been performed and a few randomized controlled trials and systematic reviews suggest that this alga may improve several symptoms and may even have an anticancer, antiviral and antiallergic effects. Current and potential clinical applications, issues of safety, indications, side-effects and levels of evidence are addressed in this review. Areas of ongoing and future research are also discussed. PMID:18955364

HEP Outreach, Inreach, and Web 2.0

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Goldfarb, Steven

2011-12-01

I report on current usage of multimedia and social networking "Web 2.0" tools for Education and Outreach in high-energy physics, and discuss their potential for internal communication within large worldwide collaborations, such as those of the LHC. Following a brief description of the history of Web 2.0 development, I present a survey of the most popular sites and describe their usage in HEP to disseminate information to students and the general public. I then discuss the potential of certain specific tools, such as document and multimedia sharing sites, for boosting the speed and effectiveness of information exchange within the collaborations. I conclude with a brief discussion of the successes and failures of these tools, and make suggestions for improved usage in the future.

The promise and challenge of virtual gaming technologies for chronic pain: the case of graded exposure for low back pain.

PubMed

Trost, Zina; Zielke, Marjorie; Guck, Adam; Nowlin, Liza; Zakhidov, Djanhangir; France, Christopher R; Keefe, Francis

2015-01-01

Virtual reality (VR) technologies have been successfully applied to acute pain interventions and recent reviews have suggested their potential utility in chronic pain. The current review highlights the specific relevance of VR interactive gaming technologies for pain-specific intervention, including their current use across a variety of physical conditions. Using the example of graded-exposure treatment for pain-related fear and disability in chronic low back pain, we discuss ways that VR gaming can be harnessed to optimize existing chronic pain therapies and examine the potential limitations of traditional VR interfaces in the context of chronic pain. We conclude by discussing directions for future research on VR-mediated applications in chronic pain.

Psychedelic Drugs in Biomedicine.

PubMed

Kyzar, Evan J; Nichols, Charles D; Gainetdinov, Raul R; Nichols, David E; Kalueff, Allan V

2017-11-01

Psychedelic drugs, such as lysergic acid diethylamide (LSD), mescaline, and psilocybin, exert profound effects on brain and behavior. After decades of difficulties in studying these compounds, psychedelics are again being tested as potential treatments for intractable biomedical disorders. Preclinical research of psychedelics complements human neuroimaging studies and pilot clinical trials, suggesting these compounds as promising treatments for addiction, depression, anxiety, and other conditions. However, many questions regarding the mechanisms of action, safety, and efficacy of psychedelics remain. Here, we summarize recent preclinical and clinical data in this field, discuss their pharmacological mechanisms of action, and outline critical areas for future studies of psychedelic drugs, with the goal of maximizing the potential benefits of translational psychedelic biomedicine to patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Enhancing the effectiveness of tobacco package warning labels: a social psychological perspective

PubMed Central

Strahan, E; White, K; Fong, G; Fabrigar, L; Zanna, M; Cameron, R

2002-01-01

Objective: To outline social psychological principles that could influence the psychosocial and behavioural effects of tobacco warning labels, and to inform the development of more effective tobacco warning labels. Data sources: PsycInfo and Medline literature searches and expert guided selection of principles and theories in social psychology and of tobacco warning labels, including articles, books, and reports. Conclusions: Tobacco warning labels represent a potentially effective method of influencing attitudes and behaviours. This review describes social psychological principles that could be used to guide the creation of more effective warning labels. The potential value of incorporating warning labels into a broader public health education campaign is discussed, and directions for future research are suggested. PMID:12198266

Application of CFD codes to the design and development of propulsion systems

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Lord, W. K.; Pickett, G. F.; Sturgess, G. J.; Weingold, H. D.

1987-01-01

The internal flows of aerospace propulsion engines have certain common features that are amenable to analysis through Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) computer codes. Although the application of CFD to engineering problems in engines was delayed by the complexities associated with internal flows, many codes with different capabilities are now being used as routine design tools. This is illustrated by examples taken from the aircraft gas turbine engine of flows calculated with potential flow, Euler flow, parabolized Navier-Stokes, and Navier-Stokes codes. Likely future directions of CFD applied to engine flows are described, and current barriers to continued progress are highlighted. The potential importance of the Numerical Aerodynamic Simulator (NAS) to resolution of these difficulties is suggested.

Vibrio bacteria in raw oysters: managing risks to human health.

PubMed

Froelich, Brett A; Noble, Rachel T

2016-03-05

The human-pathogenic marine bacteria Vibrio vulnificus and V. parahaemolyticus are strongly correlated with water temperature, with concentrations increasing as waters warm seasonally. Both of these bacteria can be concentrated in filter-feeding shellfish, especially oysters. Because oysters are often consumed raw, this exposes people to large doses of potentially harmful bacteria. Various models are used to predict the abundance of these bacteria in oysters, which guide shellfish harvest policy meant to reduce human health risk. Vibrio abundance and behaviour varies from site to site, suggesting that location-specific studies are needed to establish targeted risk reduction strategies. Moreover, virulence potential, rather than simple abundance, should be also be included in future modeling efforts. © 2016 The Author(s).

Potential environmental impact of tidal energy extraction in the Pentland Firth at large spatial scales: results of a biogeochemical model

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

van der Molen, J.; Ruardij, P.; Greenwood, N.

2015-12-01

A model study was carried out of the potential large-scale (> 100 km) effects of marine renewable tidal energy generation in the Pentland Firth, using the 3-D hydrodynamics-biogeochemistry model GETM-ERSEM-BFM. A realistic 800 MW scenario and an exaggerated academic 8 GW scenario were considered. The realistic 800 MW scenario suggested minor effects on the tides, and undetectable effects on the biogeochemistry. The academic 8 GW scenario suggested effects would be observed over hundreds of kilometres away with changes of up to 10 % in tidal and ecosystem variables, in particular in a broad area in the vicinity of The Wash. There, waters became less turbid, and primary production increased with associated increases in faunal ecosystem variables. Moreover, a one-off increase in carbon storage in the sea bed was detected. Although these first results suggest positive environmental effects, further investigation is recommended of: (i) the residual circulation in the vicinity of the Pentland Firth and effects on larval dispersal using a higher resolution model, (ii) ecosystem effects with (future) state-of-the-art models if energy extraction substantially beyond 1 GW is planned.

The culture of affluence: psychological costs of material wealth.

PubMed

Luthar, Suniya S

2003-01-01

Children of affluence are generally presumed to be at low risk. However, recent studies have suggested problems in several domains--notably, substance use, anxiety, and depression--and 2 sets of potential causes: pressures to achieve and isolation from parents. Recognizing the limited awareness of these issues, the objectives in this paper are to collate evidence on the nature of problems among the wealthy and their likely causes. The first half of the paper is focused on disturbances among affluent children and the second half is focused on characteristics of their families and neighborhoods. Widespread negative sentiments toward the rich are then discussed, and the paper concludes with suggestions for future work with families at the upper end of the socioeconomic spectrum.

EG-VEGF: a key endocrine factor in placental development.

PubMed

Brouillet, Sophie; Hoffmann, Pascale; Feige, Jean-Jacques; Alfaidy, Nadia

2012-10-01

Endocrine gland-derived vascular endothelial growth factor (EG-VEGF), also named prokineticin 1, is the canonical member of the prokineticin family. Numerous reports suggest a direct involvement of this peptide in normal and pathological reproductive processes. Recent advances propose EG-VEGF as a key endocrine factor that controls many aspects of placental development and suggest its involvement in the development of preeclampsia (PE), the most threatening pathology of human pregnancy. This review describes the finely tuned action and regulation of EG-VEGF throughout human pregnancy, argues for its clinical relevance as a potential diagnostic marker of the onset of PE, and discusses future research directions for therapeutic targeting of EG-VEGF. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The Culture of Affluence: Psychological Costs of Material Wealth

PubMed Central

Luthar, Suniya S.

2007-01-01

Children of affluence are generally presumed to be at low risk. However, recent studies have suggested problems in several domains—notably, substance use, anxiety, and depression—and 2 sets of potential causes: pressures to achieve and isolation from parents. Recognizing the limited awareness of these issues, the objectives in this paper are to collate evidence on the nature of problems among the wealthy and their likely causes. The first half of the paper is focused on disturbances among affluent children and the second half is focused on characteristics of their families and neighborhoods. Widespread negative sentiments toward the rich are then discussed, and the paper concludes with suggestions for future work with families at the upper end of the socioeconomic spectrum. PMID:14669883

Prehistoric earthquakes on the Caribbean-South American plate boundary, central Range Fault, Trinidad

USGS Publications Warehouse

Prentice, Carol S.; Crosby, Christopher J.; Weber, John C.; Ragona, Daniel

2010-01-01

Recent geodetic studies suggest that the Central Range fault is the principal plate-boundary structure accommodating strike-slip motion between the Caribbean and South American plates. Our study shows that the fault forms a topographically prominent lineament in central Trinidad. Results from a paleoseismic investigation at a site where Holocene sediments have been deposited across the Central Range fault indicate that it ruptured the ground surface most recently between 2710 and 550 yr B.P. If the geodetic slip rate of 9–15 mm/yr is representative of Holocene slip rates, our paleoseismic data suggest that at least 4.9 m of potential slip may have accumulated on the fault and could be released during a future large earthquake (M > 7).

Pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond: preparing for plausible futures.

PubMed

Starmer, Amy J; Duby, John C; Slaw, Kenneth M; Edwards, Anne; Leslie, Laurel K

2010-11-01

Although the future of pediatrics is uncertain, the organizations that lead pediatrics, and the professionals who practice within it, have embraced the notion that the pediatric community must anticipate and lead change to ultimately improve the health of children and adolescents. In an attempt to proactively prepare for a variety of conceivable futures, the board of directors of the American Academy of Pediatrics established the Vision of Pediatrics 2020 Task Force in 2008. This group was charged to think broadly about the future of pediatrics, to gather input on key trends that are influencing the future, to create likely scenarios of the future, and to recommend strategies to best prepare pediatric clinicians and pediatric organizations for a range of potential futures. The work of this task force led to the development of 8 "megatrends" that were identified as highly likely to have a profound influence on the future of pediatrics. A separate list of "wild-card" scenarios was created of trends with the potential to have a substantial influence but are less likely to occur. The process of scenario-planning was used to consider the effects of the 8 megatrends on pediatrics in the year 2020 and beyond. Consideration of these possible scenarios affords the opportunity to determine potential future pediatric needs, to identify potential solutions to address those needs, and, ultimately, to proactively prepare the profession to thrive if these or other future scenarios become realities.

Dental and Nondental Stem Cell Based Regeneration of the Craniofacial Region: A Tissue Based Approach

PubMed Central

Hughes, Declan; Song, Bing

2016-01-01

Craniofacial reconstruction may be a necessary treatment for those who have been affected by trauma, disease, or pathological developmental conditions. The use of stem cell therapy and tissue engineering shows massive potential as a future treatment modality. Currently in the literature, there is a wide variety of published experimental studies utilising the different stem cell types available and the plethora of available scaffold materials. This review investigates different stem cell sources and their unique characteristics to suggest an ideal cell source for regeneration of individual craniofacial tissues. At present, understanding and clinical applications of stem cell therapy remain in their infancy with numerous challenges to overcome. In spite of this, the field displays immense capacity and will no doubt be utilised in future clinical treatments of craniofacial regeneration. PMID:27143979

Geographical thinking in nursing inquiry, part two: performance, possibility, and non-representational theory.

PubMed

Andrews, Gavin J

2017-04-01

Part one in this two paper series reviewed the nature of geographical thinking in nursing research thus far. The current paper builds on it by looking forwards and providing a particular vision for future research. It argues that it is time to once again look to the parent discipline of human geography for inspiration, specifically to its turn towards non-representational theory, involving an emphasis on life that onflows prior to meaning, significance, and full cognition; on life's 'taking-place'. The paper introduces this way of viewing and animating the world. Some potential connections to nursing research and practice are suggested, as are some specific avenues for future inquiry. Explained is how, through non-representational theory, nursing might be re-imagined as something that reveals space-time. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Potential environmental implications of nanoscale zero-valent iron particles for environmental remediation.

PubMed

Jang, Min-Hee; Lim, Myunghee; Hwang, Yu Sik

2014-01-01

Nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI) particles are widely used in the field of various environmental contaminant remediation. Although the potential benefits of nZVI are considerable, there is a distinct need to identify any potential risks after environmental exposure. In this respect, we review recent studies on the environmental applications and implications of nZVI, highlighting research gaps and suggesting future research directions. Environmental application of nZVI is briefly summarized, focusing on its unique properties. Ecotoxicity of nZVI is reviewed according to type of organism, including bacteria, terrestrial organisms, and aquatic organisms. The environmental fate and transport of nZVI are also summarized with regards to exposure scenarios. Finally, the current limitations of risk determination are thoroughly provided. The ecotoxicity of nZVI depends on the composition, concentration, size and surface properties of the nanoparticles and the experimental method used, including the species investigated. In addition, the environmental fate and transport of nZVI appear to be complex and depend on the exposure duration and the exposure conditions. To date, field-scale data are limited and only short-term studies using simple exposure methods have been conducted. In this regard, the primary focus of future study should be on 1) the development of an appropriate and valid testing method of the environmental fate and ecotoxicity of reactive nanoparticles used in environmental applications and 2) assessing their potential environmental risks using in situ field scale applications.

Potential environmental implications of nanoscale zero-valent iron particles for environmental remediation

PubMed Central

Jang, Min-Hee; Lim, Myunghee; Hwang, Yu Sik

2014-01-01

Objectives Nanoscale zero-valent iron (nZVI) particles are widely used in the field of various environmental contaminant remediation. Although the potential benefits of nZVI are considerable, there is a distinct need to identify any potential risks after environmental exposure. In this respect, we review recent studies on the environmental applications and implications of nZVI, highlighting research gaps and suggesting future research directions. Methods Environmental application of nZVI is briefly summarized, focusing on its unique properties. Ecotoxicity of nZVI is reviewed according to type of organism, including bacteria, terrestrial organisms, and aquatic organisms. The environmental fate and transport of nZVI are also summarized with regards to exposure scenarios. Finally, the current limitations of risk determination are thoroughly provided. Results The ecotoxicity of nZVI depends on the composition, concentration, size and surface properties of the nanoparticles and the experimental method used, including the species investigated. In addition, the environmental fate and transport of nZVI appear to be complex and depend on the exposure duration and the exposure conditions. To date, field-scale data are limited and only short-term studies using simple exposure methods have been conducted. Conclusions In this regard, the primary focus of future study should be on 1) the development of an appropriate and valid testing method of the environmental fate and ecotoxicity of reactive nanoparticles used in environmental applications and 2) assessing their potential environmental risks using in situ field scale applications. PMID:25518840

Potential Use of Human Periapical Cyst-Mesenchymal Stem Cells (hPCy-MSCs) as a Novel Stem Cell Source for Regenerative Medicine Applications

PubMed Central

Tatullo, Marco; Codispoti, Bruna; Pacifici, Andrea; Palmieri, Francesca; Marrelli, Massimo; Pacifici, Luciano; Paduano, Francesco

2017-01-01

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are attracting growing interest by the scientific community due to their huge regenerative potential. Thus, the plasticity of MSCs strongly suggests the utilization of these cells for regenerative medicine applications. The main issue about the clinical use of MSCs is related to the complex way to obtain them from healthy tissues; this topic has encouraged scientists to search for novel and more advantageous sources of these cells in easily accessible tissues. The oral cavity hosts several cell populations expressing mesenchymal stem cell like-features, furthermore, the access to oral and dental tissues is simple and isolation of cells is very efficient. Thus, oral-derived stem cells are highly attractive for clinical purposes. In this context, human periapical cyst mesenchymal stem cells (hPCy-MSCs) exhibit characteristics similar to other dental-derived MSCs, including their extensive proliferative potential, cell surface marker profile and the ability to differentiate into various cell types such as osteoblasts, adipocytes and neurons. Importantly, hPCy-MSCs are easily collected from the surgically removed periapical cysts; this reusing of biological waste guarantees a smart source of stem cells without any impact on the surrounding healthy tissues. In this review, we report the most interesting research topics related to hPCy-MSCs with a newsworthy discussion about the future insights. This newly discovered cell population exhibits interesting and valuable potentialities that could be of high impact in the future regenerative medicine applications. PMID:29259970

Potential Use of Human Periapical Cyst-Mesenchymal Stem Cells (hPCy-MSCs) as a Novel Stem Cell Source for Regenerative Medicine Applications.

PubMed

Tatullo, Marco; Codispoti, Bruna; Pacifici, Andrea; Palmieri, Francesca; Marrelli, Massimo; Pacifici, Luciano; Paduano, Francesco

2017-01-01

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) are attracting growing interest by the scientific community due to their huge regenerative potential. Thus, the plasticity of MSCs strongly suggests the utilization of these cells for regenerative medicine applications. The main issue about the clinical use of MSCs is related to the complex way to obtain them from healthy tissues; this topic has encouraged scientists to search for novel and more advantageous sources of these cells in easily accessible tissues. The oral cavity hosts several cell populations expressing mesenchymal stem cell like-features, furthermore, the access to oral and dental tissues is simple and isolation of cells is very efficient. Thus, oral-derived stem cells are highly attractive for clinical purposes. In this context, human periapical cyst mesenchymal stem cells (hPCy-MSCs) exhibit characteristics similar to other dental-derived MSCs, including their extensive proliferative potential, cell surface marker profile and the ability to differentiate into various cell types such as osteoblasts, adipocytes and neurons. Importantly, hPCy-MSCs are easily collected from the surgically removed periapical cysts; this reusing of biological waste guarantees a smart source of stem cells without any impact on the surrounding healthy tissues. In this review, we report the most interesting research topics related to hPCy-MSCs with a newsworthy discussion about the future insights. This newly discovered cell population exhibits interesting and valuable potentialities that could be of high impact in the future regenerative medicine applications.

Potential impact of future climate change on sugarcane under dryland conditions in Mexico

USDA-ARS?s Scientific Manuscript database

Assessments of impacts of future climate change on widely grown sugarcane varieties can guide decision-making at various levels and help ensure the economic stability of numerous rural households. This study assessed the potential impact of future climatic change on CP 72-2086 the most widely grown...

Future-directed thinking in first-episode psychosis.

PubMed

Goodby, Emmeline; MacLeod, Andrew K

2016-06-01

This study employed the Future Thinking Task (MacLeod et al., 2005, Br. J. Clin. Psychol., 44, 495) to investigate whether future-directed thinking in first-episode psychosis is significantly different from that of matched controls, and to identify its correlates in this patient group. Cross-sectional, mixed-model, case-control design. Participants were 30 patients with first-episode psychosis and 27 matched controls. The Future Thinking Task was used to assess future-directed thinking in both groups. Anxiety and depression were also measured as well as self-report measures of hopelessness, suicide ideation and a measure of negative symptoms. Individuals with psychosis were impaired in future-directed thinking in both positive and negative domains, particularly with respect to the coming year. Increased self-reported hopelessness was associated with reduced positive future thinking and increased negative future thinking. Increased positive future thinking was also associated with reduced severity of negative symptoms, whilst negative future thinking was associated with suicide ideation. Individuals with first-episode psychosis show a reduction in positive future thinking in line with that seen in other clinical groups, but this is accompanied by an unexpected reduction in negative future thinking. The findings suggest a general disengagement with the future in this group that may affect recovery and functioning. Individuals with first-episode psychosis may benefit from interventions to help them engage with their future, in particular in the mid-range, up to 1 year. The Future Thinking Task may be a helpful addition to the assessment of suicide risk in those with first-episode psychosis. Decreased positive future thinking was associated with increased severity of negative symptoms, indicating a potential new treatment angle for this resistant aspect of psychosis. The cross-sectional design of this study does not allow for conclusions about the causal relationship between psychosis and future-directed thinking. This study investigated future-directed thinking in individuals with a range of psychotic illnesses employing a trans-diagnostic approach; therefore, conclusions cannot be drawn about the nature of future-directed thinking in individual psychotic disorders. © 2015 The British Psychological Society.

Plant distributions in the southwestern United States; a scenario assessment of the modern-day and future distribution ranges of 166 Species

USGS Publications Warehouse

Thomas, Kathryn A.; Guertin, Patricia P.; Gass, Leila

2012-01-01

The authors developed spatial models of the predicted modern-day suitable habitat (SH) of 166 dominant and indicator plant species of the southwestern United States (herein referred to as the Southwest) and then conducted a coarse assessment of potential future changes in the distribution of their suitable habitat under three climate-change scenarios for two time periods. We used Maxent-based spatial modeling to predict the modern-day and future scenarios of SH for each species in an over 342-million-acre area encompassing all or parts of six states in the Southwest--Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Modern-day SH models were predicted by our using 26 annual and monthly average temperature and precipitation variables, averaged for the years 1971-2000. Future SH models were predicted for each species by our using six climate models based on application of the average of 16 General Circulation Models to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change emission scenarios B1, A1B, and A2 for two time periods, 2040 to 2069 and 2070 and 2100, referred to respectively as the 2050 and 2100 time periods. The assessment examined each species' vulnerability to loss of modern-day SH under future climate scenarios, potential to gain SH under future climate scenarios, and each species' estimated risk as a function of both vulnerability and potential gains. All 166 species were predicted to lose modern-day SH in the future climate change scenarios. In the 2050 time period, nearly 30 percent of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day suitable habitat, 21 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 30 species gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. In the 2100 time period, nearly half of the species lost 75 percent or more of their modern-day SH, 28 species gained more new SH than their modern-day SH, and 34 gained less new SH than 25 percent of their modern-day SH. Using nine risk categories we found only two species were in the least risk category, while 20 species were in the highest risk category. The assessment showed that species respond independently to predicted climate change, suggesting that current plant assemblages may disassemble under predicted climate change scenarios. This report presents the results for each species in tables (Appendix A) and maps (14 for each species) in Appendix B.

A quasi-static model of global atmospheric electricity. I - The lower atmosphere

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hays, P. B.; Roble, R. G.

1979-01-01

A quasi-steady model of global lower atmospheric electricity is presented. The model considers thunderstorms as dipole electric generators that can be randomly distributed in various regions and that are the only source of atmospheric electricity and includes the effects of orography and electrical coupling along geomagnetic field lines in the ionosphere and magnetosphere. The model is used to calculate the global distribution of electric potential and current for model conductivities and assumed spatial distributions of thunderstorms. Results indicate that large positive electric potentials are generated over thunderstorms and penetrate to ionospheric heights and into the conjugate hemisphere along magnetic field lines. The perturbation of the calculated electric potential and current distributions during solar flares and subsequent Forbush decreases is discussed, and future measurements of atmospheric electrical parameters and modifications of the model which would improve the agreement between calculations and measurements are suggested.

Habitability Assessment at Gale Crater: Implications from Initial Results

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Conrad, P. G.; Archer, D.; Atreya, S.; Blake, D.; Coll, P.; delaTorre, M.; Edgett, K.; Eigenbrode, J.; Fisk, M.; Freissenet, C.;

Do the benefits outweigh the side effects of colorectal cancer surveillance? A systematic review.

PubMed

Augestad, Knut Magne; Rose, Johnie; Crawshaw, Benjamin; Cooper, Gregory; Delaney, Conor

2014-05-15

Most patients treated with curative intent for colorectal cancer (CRC) are included in a follow-up program involving periodic evaluations. The survival benefits of a follow-up program are well delineated, and previous meta-analyses have suggested an overall survival improvement of 5%-10% by intensive follow-up. However, in a recent randomized trial, there was no survival benefit when a minimal vs an intensive follow-up program was compared. Less is known about the potential side effects of follow-up. Well-known side effects of preventive programs are those of somatic complications caused by testing, negative psychological consequences of follow-up itself, and the downstream impact of false positive or false negative tests. Accordingly, the potential survival benefits of CRC follow-up must be weighed against these potential negatives. The present review compares the benefits and side effects of CRC follow-up, and we propose future areas for research.

Micro- and macro-scale petrophysical characterization of potential reservoir units from the Northern Israel

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Haruzi, Peleg; Halisch, Matthias; Katsman, Regina; Waldmann, Nicolas

2016-04-01

Lower Cretaceous sandstone serves as hydrocarbon reservoir in some places over the world, and potentially in Hatira formation in the Golan Heights, northern Israel. The purpose of the current research is to characterize the petrophysical properties of these sandstone units. The study is carried out by two alternative methods: using conventional macroscopic lab measurements, and using CT-scanning, image processing and subsequent fluid mechanics simulations at a microscale, followed by upscaling to the conventional macroscopic rock parameters (porosity and permeability). Comparison between the upscaled and measured in the lab properties will be conducted. The best way to upscale the microscopic rock characteristics will be analyzed based the models suggested in the literature. Proper characterization of the potential reservoir will provide necessary analytical parameters for the future experimenting and modeling of the macroscopic fluid flow behavior in the Lower Cretaceous sandstone.

Phytochemicals in quinoa and amaranth grains and their antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, and potential health beneficial effects: a review.

PubMed

Tang, Yao; Tsao, Rong

2017-07-01

Quinoa (Chenopodium quinoa Willd.) and amaranth (Amaranthus cruentus L.) are pseudocereal grains rich in both macronutrients and micronutrients including vitamins and minerals. The proteins are particularly of high nutritional quality due to the outstanding balance of essential amino acids. However, recent research strongly suggests that nonessential nutrients such as phytochemicals of quinoa and amaranth may also have potential health beneficial effects. This review focuses on the phytochemical composition of quinoa and amaranth seeds, the antioxidant and anti-inflammatory activities of hydrophilic (e.g. phenolics, betacyanins) and lipophilic (e.g. fatty acids, tocopherols, and carotenoids) nutrients, and how these contribute to the potential health benefits, especially in lowering the risk of the oxidative stress related diseases e.g. cancer, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, and obesity. The gap between current knowledge and future research needs have also been identified. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

Exploring future scenarios for the global supply chain of tuna

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Mullon, C.; Guillotreau, P.; Galbraith, E. D.; Fortilus, J.; Chaboud, C.; Bopp, L.; Aumont, O.; Kaplan, D.

2017-06-01

The abundance of tuna, an important top predator that ranges throughout tropical and subtropical oceans, is now largely determined by fishing activity. Fishing activity, in turn, is determined by the interaction of fish availability, fishing capacity, fishing costs and global markets for tuna products. In the face of overfishing, the continued sustainable supply of tuna is likely to require improved global governance, that would benefit from modeling frameworks capable of integrating market forces with the availability of fish in order to consider alternative future projections. Here we describe such a modeling framework, in which we develop several simple, contrasting scenarios for the development of the tuna supply chain in order to illustrate the utility of the approach for global evaluation of management strategies for tuna and other complex, stock-structured fisheries. The model includes multiple national and multi-national fishing fleets, canneries and fresh/frozen markets, and connects these to global consumers using a network of flows. The model is calibrated using recent data on fish catch, cannery and fresh/frozen production, and consumption. Scenarios explore the control on future outcomes in the global tuna fishery by representing, in a simple way, the effects of (1) climate change, (2) changes in the global demand for tuna, and (3) changes in the access to fishing grounds (marine reserves). The results emphasize the potential importance of increasing demand in provoking a global collapse, and suggest that controlling tuna production by limiting technical efficiency is a potential countermeasure. Finally we discuss the outcomes in terms of potential extensions of the scenario approach allowed by this global network model of the tuna supply chain.

Simulated climate change conditions unveil the toxic potential of the fungicide pyrimethanil on the midge Chironomus riparius: a multigeneration experiment

PubMed Central

Müller, Ruth; Seeland, Anne; Jagodzinski, Lucas S; Diogo, Joao B; Nowak, Carsten; Oehlmann, Jörg

2012-01-01

Although it has been suggested that temperature increase may alter the toxic potential of environmental pollutants, few studies have investigated the potential risk of chemical stressors for wildlife under Global Climate Change (GCC) impact. We applied a bifactorial multigeneration study in order to test if GCC conditions alter the effects of low pesticide concentrations on life history and genetic diversity of the aquatic model organism Chironomus riparius. Experimental populations of the species were chronically exposed to a low concentration of the fungicide pyrimethanil (half of the no-observed-adverse-effect concentration: NOAEC/2) under two dynamic present-day temperature simulations (11.0–22.7°C; 14.0–25.2°C) and one future scenario (16.5–28.1°C). During the 140-day multigeneration study, survival, emergence, reproduction, population growth, and genetic diversity of C. riparius were analyzed. Our results reveal that high temperature and pyrimethanil act synergistically on the midge C. riparius. In simulated present-day scenarios, a NOAEC/2 of pyrimethanil as derived from a life-cycle toxicity test provoked only slight-to-moderate beneficial or adverse effects on C. riparius. In contrast, exposure to a NOAEC/2 concentration of pyrimethanil at a thermal situation likely for a summer under GCC conditions uncovered adverse effects on mortality and population growth rate. In addition, genetic diversity was considerably reduced by pyrimethanil in the future scenario, but only slightly under current climatic conditions. Our multigeneration study under near-natural (climatic) conditions indicates that not only the impact of climate change, but also low concentrations of pesticides may pose a reasonable risk for aquatic insects in future. PMID:22408736

A Systems Neuroscience Approach to the Pathophysiology of Pediatric Mood and Anxiety Disorders

PubMed Central

Leibenluft, Ellen; Brotman, Melissa A.

2015-01-01

Emotional dysregulation is a core feature of pediatric mood and anxiety disorders. Emerging evidence suggests that these disorders are mediated by abnormalities in the functions and structures of the developing brain. This chapter reviews recent behavioral and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) research on pediatric mood and anxiety disorders, focusing on the neural mechanisms underlying these disorders. Throughout the chapter, we highlight the relationship between neural and behavioral findings, and potential novel treatments. The chapter concludes with directions for future research. PMID:24281907

How do you approach seizures in the high altitude traveler?

PubMed

Maa, Edward H

2011-01-01

Counseling patients who suffer first-time or break- through seizures can be difficult, particularly when controllable external factors may be contributing to the lowering of their seizure threshold. High altitude as a potential trigger for seizures is a common question in our epilepsy clinics in Colorado, and this article reviews the existing anecdotal literature, presents our local experience with high altitude seizures (HAS), offers possible mechanisms to explain how high altitude may trigger seizures, and suggests an initial work-up and prophylactic strategies for future high altitude exposures.

Semiconductor Nanorod–Carbon Nanotube Biomimetic Films for Wire-Free Photostimulation of Blind Retinas

PubMed Central

2014-01-01

We report the development of a semiconductor nanorod-carbon nanotube based platform for wire-free, light induced retina stimulation. A plasma polymerized acrylic acid midlayer was used to achieve covalent conjugation of semiconductor nanorods directly onto neuro-adhesive, three-dimensional carbon nanotube surfaces. Photocurrent, photovoltage, and fluorescence lifetime measurements validate efficient charge transfer between the nanorods and the carbon nanotube films. Successful stimulation of a light-insensitive chick retina suggests the potential use of this novel platform in future artificial retina applications. PMID:25350365

Interprofessional collaboration in research, education, and clinical practice: working together for a better future.

PubMed

Green, Bart N; Johnson, Claire D

2015-03-01

Interprofessional collaboration occurs when 2 or more professions work together to achieve common goals and is often used as a means for solving a variety of problems and complex issues. The benefits of collaboration allow participants to achieve together more than they can individually, serve larger groups of people, and grow on individual and organizational levels. This editorial provides an overview of interprofessional collaboration in the areas of clinical practice, education, and research; discusses barriers to collaboration; and suggests potential means to overcome them.

Future Midwest Heat Waves in WRF

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Huber, M.; Buzan, J. R.; Yoo, J.

2017-12-01

We present heat stress results for the upper Midwest derived from convection resolving Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations carried out for the RCP 8.5 Scenario and driven by Community Earth System Model (CESM) boundary conditions as part of the Indiana Climate Change Assessment. Using this modeling system we find widespread and severe increases in moist heat stress metrics in the Midwest by end of century. We detail scaling arguments that suggest our results are robust and not model dependent and describe potential health, welfare, and productivity implications of these results.

Professional Advanced Research and Analysis

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Coulman, George A.

1996-01-01

Reported here is a summary of studies examining some problems in an energy conversion system. Regenerative fuel cell systems have been suggested for future manned space missions, but to meet the needed specific power requirements substantial improvements in the state-of-the-art technologies are needed. Similar improvements are needed, with emphasis on cost reduction in addition to higher conversion efficiency, for fuel cell systems that have potential for terrestrial applications. Polymer Electrolyte Membrane (PEM) fuel cells have been identified as promising candidates for development that would lead to the desired cost reduction and increased efficiency.

New ways of working in theatres. Three session working days.

PubMed

Collins, Gill

2006-01-01

Innovative ideas will be required to meet government targets for the health service in the future. Increasing the number of hours available to surgical teams from two to three sessions could be one solution. Efficient and effective utilisation of a huge capital resource would appear to be further justification for increased hours, although the Audit Commission suggests that improving existing utilisation rather than extending hours should be the priority. However if operating sessions could be increased from two to three there is a potential to reduce waiting lists.

Future production of hydrogen from solar energy and water - A summary and assessment of U.S. developments

NASA Technical Reports Server (NTRS)

Hanson, J. A.; Escher, W. J. D.

1979-01-01

The paper examines technologies of hydrogen production. Its delivery, distribution, and end-use systems are reviewed, and a classification of solar energy and hydrogen production methods is suggested. The operation of photoelectric processes, biophotolysis, photocatalysis, photoelectrolysis, and of photovoltaic systems are reviewed, with comments on their possible hydrogen production potential. It is concluded that solar hydrogen derived from wind energy, photovoltaic technology, solar thermal electric technology, and hydropower could supply some of the hydrogen for air transport by the middle of the next century.

Understanding new media. Trends and issues in electronic distribution of information

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Compaine, B.M.

The authors provide an indepth look at the changes facing information businesses, which have expanded from the traditional publishing and broadcasting companies to include financial service businesses, retailers, and telecommunications carriers. Offering a unique conceptual framework - the information business map - this book stresses the political and regulatory forces that are reshaping the information industry's structure, identifies the issues that face strategic planners and policymakers, and suggests policy options and their potential consequences for the future. Each article provides a selected bibliography. 37 figures, 10 tables.

Gut-Bioreactor and Human Health in Future.

PubMed

Purohit, Hemant J

2018-03-01

Gut-microbiome provides the complementary metabolic potential to the human system. To understand the active participation and the performance of the microbial community in human health, the concept of gut as a plug-flow reactor with the fed-batch mode of operation can provide better insight. The concept suggests the virtual compartmentalized gut with sequential stratification of the microbial community in response to a typical host genotype. It also provides the analysis plan for gut microbiome; and its relevance in developing health management options under the identified clinical conditions.

Interprofessional collaboration in research, education, and clinical practice: working together for a better future

PubMed Central

Green, Bart N.; Johnson, Claire D.

2015-01-01

Interprofessional collaboration occurs when 2 or more professions work together to achieve common goals and is often used as a means for solving a variety of problems and complex issues. The benefits of collaboration allow participants to achieve together more than they can individually, serve larger groups of people, and grow on individual and organizational levels. This editorial provides an overview of interprofessional collaboration in the areas of clinical practice, education, and research; discusses barriers to collaboration; and suggests potential means to overcome them. PMID:25594446

Multiplex social ecological network analysis reveals how social changes affect community robustness more than resource depletion.

PubMed

Baggio, Jacopo A; BurnSilver, Shauna B; Arenas, Alex; Magdanz, James S; Kofinas, Gary P; De Domenico, Manlio

2016-11-29

Network analysis provides a powerful tool to analyze complex influences of social and ecological structures on community and household dynamics. Most network studies of social-ecological systems use simple, undirected, unweighted networks. We analyze multiplex, directed, and weighted networks of subsistence food flows collected in three small indigenous communities in Arctic Alaska potentially facing substantial economic and ecological changes. Our analysis of plausible future scenarios suggests that changes to social relations and key households have greater effects on community robustness than changes to specific wild food resources.

Peripheral inflammation and cognitive aging.

PubMed

Lim, Alvin; Krajina, Katarina; Marsland, Anna L

2013-01-01

Evidence suggests that inflammation, an innate immune response facilitating recovery from injury and pathogenic invasion, is positively associated with age-related cognitive decline and may play a role in risk for dementia. Physiological pathways linking the peripheral immune and central nervous systems are outlined, and studies linking inflammation with neurocognitive function are overviewed. We also present recent studies from our laboratory showing that midlife inflammation is related to cognitive function and brain morphology. Finally, potential implications for treatment, future directions, and limitations are discussed. Copyright © 2013 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Cellular and Acellular Approaches for Cartilage Repair

PubMed Central

2015-01-01

There are several choices of cells to use for cartilage repair. Cells are used as internal or external sources and sometimes in combination. In this article, an analysis of the different cell choices and their use and potential is provided. Embryonic cartilage formation is of importance when finding more about how to be able to perfect cartilage repair. Some suggestions for near future research based on up-to-date knowledge on chondrogenic cells are given to hopefully stimulate more studies on the final goal of cartilage regeneration. PMID:27340516

Energy storage using phase-change materials for active solar heating and cooling: An evaluation of future research and development direction

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Borkowski, R. J.; Stovall, T. K.; Kedl, R. J.; Tomlinson, J. J.

1982-04-01

The current state of the art and commercial potential of active solar heating and cooling systems for buildings, and the use of thermal energy storage with these systems are assessed. The need for advanced latent heat storage subsystems in these applications and priorities for their development are determined. Latent storage subsystems are advantageous in applications where their compactness may be exploited. It is suggested that subsystems could facilitate storage in retrofit applications in which storage would be physically impossible otherwise.

Regulation of online pharmacy: an Australian perspective.

PubMed

Bernath, Paul

2003-02-01

This article argues that existing Australian regulations do not adequately cover online pharmacies or Internet advertising of medicines and that existing penalties and sanctions are often ineffective, potentially placing public health and safety at risk. Suggestions are made for future regulatory approaches. It is concluded that as well as an effective program of public education, cautious domestic legislative reform is necessary to ensure specific regulation of Australian online pharmacy practice and Internet advertising of medicines. In addition, the global nature of the Internet demands international co-operation and increased regulator and consumer vigilance.

In search of future earths: assessing the possibility of finding Earth analogues in the later stages of their habitable lifetimes.

PubMed

O'Malley-James, Jack T; Greaves, Jane S; Raven, John A; Cockell, Charles S

2015-05-01

Earth will become uninhabitable within 2-3 Gyr as a result of the increasing luminosity of the Sun changing the boundaries of the habitable zone (HZ). Predictions about the future of habitable conditions on Earth include declining species diversity and habitat extent, ocean loss, and changes to geochemical cycles. Testing these predictions is difficult, but the discovery of a planet that is an analogue to future Earth could provide the means to test them. This planet would need to have an Earth-like biosphere history and to be approaching the inner edge of the HZ at present. Here, we assess the possibility of finding such a planet and discuss the benefits of analyzing older Earths. Finding an old-Earth analogue in nearby star systems would be ideal, because this would allow for atmospheric characterization. Hence, as an illustrative example, G stars within 10 pc of the Sun are assessed as potential old-Earth-analog hosts. Six of these represent good potential hosts. For each system, a hypothetical Earth analogue is placed at locations within the continuously habitable zone (CHZ) that would allow enough time for Earth-like biosphere development. Surface temperature evolution over the host star's main sequence lifetime (assessed by using a simple climate model) is used to determine whether the planet would be in the right stage of its late-habitable lifetime to exhibit detectable biosignatures. The best candidate, in terms of the chances of planet formation in the CHZ and of biosignature detection, is 61 Virginis. However, planet formation studies suggest that only a small fraction (0.36%) of G stars in the solar neighborhood could host an old-Earth analogue. If the development of Earth-like biospheres is rare, requiring a sequence of low-probability events to occur, biosphere evolution models suggest they are rarer still, with only thousands being present in the Galaxy as a whole.

The Potential Role of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math Programs in Reducing Teen Dating Violence and Intimate Partner Violence.

PubMed

D'Inverno, Ashley Schappell; Kearns, Megan C; Reidy, Dennis E

2016-12-01

Science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) are growing fields that provide job stability, financial security, and health prosperity for professionals in these fields. Unfortunately, females are underrepresented in STEM, which is potentially both a consequence and precipitant of gender inequity in the United States. In addition to the financial and health benefits, increasing the number of girls and women in STEM fields may also indirectly prevent and/or reduce teen dating violence and intimate partner violence by: (1) increasing women's financial independence, thereby reducing dependence on potentially abusive partners; (2) decreasing household poverty and financial stress, which may lead to reductions in relationship discord; and (3) increasing attitudes and beliefs about women as equals, thereby increasing gender equity. In this commentary, we discuss the potential role of primary and secondary school STEM programs in reducing violence against women. We review the literature on existing evaluations of STEM programs for educational outcomes, discuss the limitations of these evaluations, and offer suggestions for future research.

Water availability change in central Belgium for the late 21st century

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Tabari, Hossein; Taye, Meron Teferi; Willems, Patrick

2015-08-01

We investigate the potential impact of climate change on water availability in central Belgium. Two water balance components being precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are initially projected for the late 21st century (2071-2100) based on 30 Coupled Models Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models relative to a baseline period of 1961-1990, assuming forcing by four representative concentration pathway emission scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). The future available water is then estimated as the difference between precipitation and potential evapotranspiration projections. The number of wet days and mean monthly precipitation for summer season is projected to decrease in most of the scenarios, while the projections show an increase in those variables for the winter months. Potential evapotranspiration is expected to increase during both winter and summer seasons. The results show a decrease in water availability for summer and an increase for winter, suggesting drier summers and wetter winters for the late 21st century in central Belgium.

Preliminary evidence that testosterone's association with aggression depends on self-construal.

PubMed

Welker, Keith M; Norman, Rachel E; Goetz, Stefan; Moreau, Benjamin J P; Kitayama, Shinobu; Carré, Justin M

2017-06-01

A contribution to a special issue on Hormones and Human Competition. Previous research and theory suggest testosterone is an important hormone for modulating aggression and self-regulation. We propose that self-construal, a culturally-relevant difference in how individuals define the self in relation to others, may be an important moderator of the relationship between testosterone and behaviors linked to aggression. Within two studies (Study 1 N=80; Study 2 N=237) and an integrated data analysis, we find evidence suggesting that acute testosterone changes in men are positively associated with aggressive behavior for those with more independent self-construals, whereas basal testosterone is negatively associated with aggression when individuals have more interdependent self-construals. Although preliminary, these findings suggest that self-construal moderates the association between testosterone and aggression, thereby paving the way toward future work examining the potential cultural moderation of the behavioral effects of testosterone. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming.

PubMed

Álvarez-Romero, Jorge G; Munguía-Vega, Adrián; Beger, Maria; Del Mar Mancha-Cisneros, Maria; Suárez-Castillo, Alvin N; Gurney, Georgina G; Pressey, Robert L; Gerber, Leah R; Morzaria-Luna, Hem Nalini; Reyes-Bonilla, Héctor; Adams, Vanessa M; Kolb, Melanie; Graham, Erin M; VanDerWal, Jeremy; Castillo-López, Alejandro; Hinojosa-Arango, Gustavo; Petatán-Ramírez, David; Moreno-Baez, Marcia; Godínez-Reyes, Carlos R; Torre, Jorge

2018-02-01

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well-connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean-warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph-theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance-weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better-connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation-only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Reconstructing Eastern Tropical Pacific productivity across Marine Isotope Stage 3 using foraminifera faunal counts

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

McCourty, M.; Schmidt, M. W.; Glaubke, R.; Hertzberg, J. E.; Marcantonio, F.; Bianchi, T. S.

2017-12-01

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation is one of Earth's largest sources of interannual climate variability that has many global environmental impacts. Furthermore, the mean state of the tropical Pacific has the potential to change in the near future due to anthropogenic warming of the planet. In order to provide an analogue for future climate states, there is a critical need to understand how the tropical Pacific evolved across abrupt warming events in Earth's recent past. While most studies have focused on the evolution of ENSO across Marine Isotope Stages (MIS) 1 and 2, the dynamics of the tropical Pacific across the abrupt climate events of MIS 3 are still highly contentious. To develop a record of past changes in upwelling intensity in the EEP, a parameter critically linked to the tropical Pacific mean state, we quantify the faunal abundances of 6 planktonic foraminifera species from piston core MV1014-02-17JC (00° 10.83'S, 85° 52.00'W; 2846 m depth) on the Carnegie Ridge from 35 - 59 kyr. The relative abundance of Globigerina bulloides, a species associated with upwelling conditions, and 5 other planktonic foraminifera suggest an increase in water column productivity during Heinrich Event 4 and across several Dansgaard-Oeschger stadial intervals. Initial results suggest that stadials in the North Atlantic are associated with more permanent La Niña-like conditions in the EEP. However, multiple lines of evidence suggest that depth intervals in our core between 43.7 - 55.7 kyr were impacted by intense dissolution due to changes in bottom water chemistry, impacting the fidelity of our faunal count records across this interval. Future work includes extending our faunal record back to 100 kyr to include Heinrich Events 6 - 8.

Chronic inflammation - inflammaging - in the ageing cochlea: A novel target for future presbycusis therapy.

PubMed

Watson, Nathan; Ding, Bo; Zhu, Xiaoxia; Frisina, Robert D

2017-11-01

Chronic, low-grade inflammation, or inflammaging, is a crucial contributor to various age-related pathologies and natural processes in aging tissue, including the nervous system. Over the past two decades, much effort has been done to understand the mechanisms of inflammaging in disease models such as type II diabetes, cardiovascular disease, Alzheimer's disease, Parkinson's disease, and others. However, despite being the most prevalent neurodegenerative disorder, the number one communication disorder, and one of the top three chronic medical conditions of our aged population; little research has been conducted on the potential role of inflammation in age-related hearing loss (ARHL). Recently, it has been suggested that there is an inflammatory presence in the cochlea, perhaps involving diffusion processes of the blood-brain barrier as it relates to the inner ear. Recent research has found correlations between hearing loss and markers such as C-reactive protein, IL-6, and TNF-α indicating inflammatory status in human case-cohort studies. However, there have been very few reports of in vivo research investigating the role of chronic inflammation's in hearing loss in the aging cochlea. Future research directed at better understanding the mechanisms of inflammation in the cochlea as well as the natural changes acquired with aging may provide a better understanding of how this process can accelerate presbycusis. Animal model experimentation and pre-clinical studies designed to recognize and characterize cochlear inflammatory mechanisms may suggest novel treatment strategies for preventing or treating ARHL. In this review, we seek to summarize key research in chronic inflammation, discuss its implications for possible roles in ARHL, and finally suggest directions for future investigations. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projecting future grassland performance in the Greater Platte River Basin to assess sustainability for potential biofuel feedstock areas

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Gu, Y.; Wylie, B. K.; Phuyal, K.

2012-12-01

In previous studies, we used vegetation condition information from archival records of satellite data (i.e., 10-year time series of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data), site geophysical and biophysical features (e.g., elevation, slope and aspect, and soils), and weather and climate drivers to build ecosystem performance (EP) models to dynamically monitor EP (DMEP) in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB). Ecosystem performance is a surrogate approach for measuring ecosystem productivity. We estimated ecosystem site potentials (i.e., long-term ecosystem productivities), weather-based expected EP (EEP), and rangeland conditions based on these EP models. Validation of the EP results using ground observations (e.g., percentage of bare soil, LANDFIRE maps, stocking rate, and crop yield data) demonstrated the reliability of these EP models. We used this DMEP method to identify grasslands that are potentially suitable for cellulosic biofuel feedstock (e.g., switchgrass) development in the GPRB. The objectives of this study are to (1) project the future grassland EP; (2) assess the changes and trends of the future EP; and (3) examine the future sustainability of the identified biofuel feedstock areas in the GPRB. We used the EP models and future climate projections to estimate future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) climate-based projections of grassland performance in the GPRB. The future climate data were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate System Model 3.0 (CCSM3) "SRES A1B" (a "middle" emissions path) obtained from the "Bias Corrected and Downscaled WCRP CMIP3 Climate Projections" archive (http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections). Results show that, under climate scenario A1B, the potential biofuel feedstock areas in the more mesic Eastern part of the GPRB will remain productive in the future (the spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3335 kg ha-1 year-1, 3355 kg ha-1 year-1, and 3341 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, the identified non-biofuel grasslands in the drier Western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive, with a slight decline in the EP trend in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1983 kg ha-1 year-1, 1977 kg ha-1 year-1, and 1964 kg ha-1 year-1 for the site potential, the 2050 EEP, and the 2099 EEP, respectively). Thus, these areas will continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. The resulting future grassland EEP maps can be used as a reference by land managers to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of the potential biofuel feedstock areas.

Evaluating the Potential Efficacy of Invasive Lionfish (Pterois volitans) Removals

PubMed Central

Barbour, Andrew B.; Allen, Michael S.; Frazer, Thomas K.; Sherman, Krista D.

2011-01-01

The lionfish, Pterois volitans (Linnaeus) and Pterois miles (Bennett), invasion of the Western Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico has the potential to alter aquatic communities and represents a legitimate ecological concern. Several local removal programs have been initiated to control this invasion, but it is not known whether removal efforts can substantially reduce lionfish numbers to ameliorate these concerns. We used an age-structured population model to evaluate the potential efficacy of lionfish removal programs and identified critical data gaps for future studies. We used high and low estimates for uncertain parameters including: length at 50% vulnerability to harvest (Lvul), instantaneous natural mortality (M), and the Goodyear compensation ratio (CR). The model predicted an annual exploitation rate between 35 and 65% would be required to cause recruitment overfishing on lionfish populations for our baseline parameter estimates for M and CR (0.5 and 15). Lionfish quickly recovered from high removal rates, reaching 90% of unfished biomass six years after a 50-year simulated removal program. Quantifying lionfish natural mortality and the size-selective vulnerability to harvest are the most important knowledge gaps for future research. We suggest complete eradication of lionfish through fishing is unlikely, and substantial reduction of adult abundance will require a long-term commitment and may be feasible only in small, localized areas where annual exploitation can be intense over multiple consecutive years. PMID:21572951

Evaluating the potential efficacy of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans) removals.

PubMed

Barbour, Andrew B; Allen, Micheal S; Allen, Michael S; Frazer, Thomas K; Sherman, Krista D

2011-05-10

The lionfish, Pterois volitans (Linnaeus) and Pterois miles (Bennett), invasion of the Western Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico has the potential to alter aquatic communities and represents a legitimate ecological concern. Several local removal programs have been initiated to control this invasion, but it is not known whether removal efforts can substantially reduce lionfish numbers to ameliorate these concerns. We used an age-structured population model to evaluate the potential efficacy of lionfish removal programs and identified critical data gaps for future studies. We used high and low estimates for uncertain parameters including: length at 50% vulnerability to harvest (L(vul)), instantaneous natural mortality (M), and the Goodyear compensation ratio (CR). The model predicted an annual exploitation rate between 35 and 65% would be required to cause recruitment overfishing on lionfish populations for our baseline parameter estimates for M and CR (0.5 and 15). Lionfish quickly recovered from high removal rates, reaching 90% of unfished biomass six years after a 50-year simulated removal program. Quantifying lionfish natural mortality and the size-selective vulnerability to harvest are the most important knowledge gaps for future research. We suggest complete eradication of lionfish through fishing is unlikely, and substantial reduction of adult abundance will require a long-term commitment and may be feasible only in small, localized areas where annual exploitation can be intense over multiple consecutive years.

Experienced and potential medical tourists' service quality expectations.

PubMed

Guiry, Michael; Scott, Jeannie J; Vequist, David G

2013-01-01

The paper's aim is to compare experienced and potential US medical tourists' foreign health service-quality expectations. Data were collected via an online survey involving 1,588 US consumers engaging or expressing an interest in medical tourism. The sample included 219 experienced and 1,369 potential medical tourists. Respondents completed a SERVQUAL questionnaire. Mann-Whitney U-tests were used to determine significant differences between experienced and potential US medical tourists' service-quality expectations. For all five service-quality dimensions (tangibles, reliability, responsiveness, assurance and empathy) experienced medical tourists had significantly lower expectations than potential medical tourists. Experienced medical tourists also had significantly lower service-quality expectations than potential medical tourists for 11 individual SERVQUAL items. Results suggest using experience level to segment medical tourists. The study also has implications for managing medical tourist service-quality expectations at service delivery point and via external marketing communications. Managing medical tourists' service quality expectations is important since expectations can significantly influence choice processes, their experience and post-consumption behavior. This study is the first to compare experienced and potential US medical tourist service-quality expectations. The study establishes a foundation for future service-quality expectations research in the rapidly growing medical tourism industry.

Potential climate effect of mineral aerosols over West Africa: Part II—contribution of dust and land cover to future climate change

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

Ji, Zhenming; Wang, Guiling; Yu, Miao; Pal, Jeremy S.

2018-04-01

Mineral dust aerosols are an essential component of climate over West Africa, however, little work has been performed to investigate their contributions to potential climate change. A set of regional climate model experiments with and without mineral dust processes and land cover changes is performed to evaluate their climatic effects under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 for two global climate models. Results suggest surface warming to be in the range of 4-8 °C by the end of the century (2081-2100) over West Africa with respect to the present day (1981-2000). The presence of mineral dusts dampens the warming by 0.1-1 °C in all seasons. Accounting for changes in land cover enhances the warming over the north of Sahel and dampens it to the south in spring and summer; however, the magnitudes are smaller than those resulting from dusts. Overall dust loadings are projected to increase, with the greatest increase occurring over the Sahara and Sahel in summer. Accounting for land cover changes tends to reduce dust loadings over the southern Sahel. Future precipitation is projected to decrease by 5-40 % in the western Sahara and Sahel and increase by 10-150 % over the eastern Sahel and Guinea Coast in JJA. A dipole pattern of future precipitation changes is attributed to dust effects, with decrease in the north by 5-20 % and increase by 5-20 % in the south. Future changes in land cover result in a noisy non-significant response with a tendency for slight wetting in MAM, JJA, and SON and drying in DJF.

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios.

PubMed

Requena-Mullor, Juan M; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071-2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios.

Current Status and Recommendations for the Future of Research, Teaching, and Testing in the Biological Sciences of Radiation Oncology: Report of the American Society for Radiation Oncology Cancer Biology/Radiation Biology Task Force, Executive Summary

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Wallner, Paul E., E-mail: pwallner@theabr.org; Anscher, Mitchell S.; Barker, Christopher A.

In early 2011, a dialogue was initiated within the Board of Directors (BOD) of the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) regarding the future of the basic sciences of the specialty, primarily focused on the current state and potential future direction of basic research within radiation oncology. After consideration of the complexity of the issues involved and the precise nature of the undertaking, in August 2011, the BOD empanelled a Cancer Biology/Radiation Biology Task Force (TF). The TF was charged with developing an accurate snapshot of the current state of basic (preclinical) research in radiation oncology from the perspective ofmore » relevance to the modern clinical practice of radiation oncology as well as the education of our trainees and attending physicians in the biological sciences. The TF was further charged with making suggestions as to critical areas of biological basic research investigation that might be most likely to maintain and build further the scientific foundation and vitality of radiation oncology as an independent and vibrant medical specialty. It was not within the scope of service of the TF to consider the quality of ongoing research efforts within the broader radiation oncology space, to presume to consider their future potential, or to discourage in any way the investigators committed to areas of interest other than those targeted. The TF charge specifically precluded consideration of research issues related to technology, physics, or clinical investigations. This document represents an Executive Summary of the Task Force report.« less

Remote-sensing based approach to forecast habitat quality under climate change scenarios

PubMed Central

Requena-Mullor, Juan M.; López, Enrique; Castro, Antonio J.; Alcaraz-Segura, Domingo; Castro, Hermelindo; Reyes, Andrés; Cabello, Javier

2017-01-01

As climate change is expected to have a significant impact on species distributions, there is an urgent challenge to provide reliable information to guide conservation biodiversity policies. In addressing this challenge, we propose a remote sensing-based approach to forecast the future habitat quality for European badger, a species not abundant and at risk of local extinction in the arid environments of southeastern Spain, by incorporating environmental variables related with the ecosystem functioning and correlated with climate and land use. Using ensemble prediction methods, we designed global spatial distribution models for the distribution range of badger using presence-only data and climate variables. Then, we constructed regional models for an arid region in the southeast Spain using EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) derived variables and weighting the pseudo-absences with the global model projections applied to this region. Finally, we forecast the badger potential spatial distribution in the time period 2071–2099 based on IPCC scenarios incorporating the uncertainty derived from the predicted values of EVI-derived variables. By including remotely sensed descriptors of the temporal dynamics and spatial patterns of ecosystem functioning into spatial distribution models, results suggest that future forecast is less favorable for European badgers than not including them. In addition, change in spatial pattern of habitat suitability may become higher than when forecasts are based just on climate variables. Since the validity of future forecast only based on climate variables is currently questioned, conservation policies supported by such information could have a biased vision and overestimate or underestimate the potential changes in species distribution derived from climate change. The incorporation of ecosystem functional attributes derived from remote sensing in the modeling of future forecast may contribute to the improvement of the detection of ecological responses under climate change scenarios. PMID:28257501

Global Pyrogeography: the Current and Future Distribution of Wildfire

PubMed Central

Krawchuk, Meg A.; Moritz, Max A.; Parisien, Marc-André; Van Dorn, Jeff; Hayhoe, Katharine

2009-01-01

Climate change is expected to alter the geographic distribution of wildfire, a complex abiotic process that responds to a variety of spatial and environmental gradients. How future climate change may alter global wildfire activity, however, is still largely unknown. As a first step to quantifying potential change in global wildfire, we present a multivariate quantification of environmental drivers for the observed, current distribution of vegetation fires using statistical models of the relationship between fire activity and resources to burn, climate conditions, human influence, and lightning flash rates at a coarse spatiotemporal resolution (100 km, over one decade). We then demonstrate how these statistical models can be used to project future changes in global fire patterns, highlighting regional hotspots of change in fire probabilities under future climate conditions as simulated by a global climate model. Based on current conditions, our results illustrate how the availability of resources to burn and climate conditions conducive to combustion jointly determine why some parts of the world are fire-prone and others are fire-free. In contrast to any expectation that global warming should necessarily result in more fire, we find that regional increases in fire probabilities may be counter-balanced by decreases at other locations, due to the interplay of temperature and precipitation variables. Despite this net balance, our models predict substantial invasion and retreat of fire across large portions of the globe. These changes could have important effects on terrestrial ecosystems since alteration in fire activity may occur quite rapidly, generating ever more complex environmental challenges for species dispersing and adjusting to new climate conditions. Our findings highlight the potential for widespread impacts of climate change on wildfire, suggesting severely altered fire regimes and the need for more explicit inclusion of fire in research on global vegetation-climate change dynamics and conservation planning. PMID:19352494

Current status and recommendations for the future of research, teaching, and testing in the biological sciences of radiation oncology: report of the American Society for Radiation Oncology Cancer Biology/Radiation Biology Task Force, executive summary.

PubMed

Wallner, Paul E; Anscher, Mitchell S; Barker, Christopher A; Bassetti, Michael; Bristow, Robert G; Cha, Yong I; Dicker, Adam P; Formenti, Silvia C; Graves, Edward E; Hahn, Stephen M; Hei, Tom K; Kimmelman, Alec C; Kirsch, David G; Kozak, Kevin R; Lawrence, Theodore S; Marples, Brian; McBride, William H; Mikkelsen, Ross B; Park, Catherine C; Weidhaas, Joanne B; Zietman, Anthony L; Steinberg, Michael

2014-01-01

In early 2011, a dialogue was initiated within the Board of Directors (BOD) of the American Society for Radiation Oncology (ASTRO) regarding the future of the basic sciences of the specialty, primarily focused on the current state and potential future direction of basic research within radiation oncology. After consideration of the complexity of the issues involved and the precise nature of the undertaking, in August 2011, the BOD empanelled a Cancer Biology/Radiation Biology Task Force (TF). The TF was charged with developing an accurate snapshot of the current state of basic (preclinical) research in radiation oncology from the perspective of relevance to the modern clinical practice of radiation oncology as well as the education of our trainees and attending physicians in the biological sciences. The TF was further charged with making suggestions as to critical areas of biological basic research investigation that might be most likely to maintain and build further the scientific foundation and vitality of radiation oncology as an independent and vibrant medical specialty. It was not within the scope of service of the TF to consider the quality of ongoing research efforts within the broader radiation oncology space, to presume to consider their future potential, or to discourage in any way the investigators committed to areas of interest other than those targeted. The TF charge specifically precluded consideration of research issues related to technology, physics, or clinical investigations. This document represents an Executive Summary of the Task Force report. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The Importance of Returned Martian Samples for Constraining Potential Hazards to Future Human Exploration

NASA Astrophysics Data System (ADS)

iMOST Team; Harrington, A. D.; Carrier, B. L.; Fernandez-Remolar, D. C.; Fogarty, J.; McCoy, J. T.; Rucker, M. A.; Spry, J. A.; Altieri, F.; Amelin, Y.; Ammannito, E.; Anand, M.; Beaty, D. W.; Benning, L. G.; Bishop, J. L.; Borg, L. E.; Boucher, D.; Brucato, J. R.; Busemann, H.; Campbell, K. A.; Czaja, A. D.; Debaille, V.; Des Marais, D. J.; Dixon, M.; Ehlmann, B. L.; Farmer, J. D.; Glavin, D. P.; Goreva, Y. S.; Grady, M. M.; Hallis, L. J.; Hausrath, E. M.; Herd, C. D. K.; Horgan, B.; Humayun, M.; Kleine, T.; Kleinhenz, J.; Mangold, N.; Mackelprang, R.; Mayhew, L. E.; McCubbin, F. M.; McLennan, S. M.; McSween, H. Y.; Moser, D. E.; Moynier, F.; Mustard, J. F.; Niles, P. B.; Ori, G. G.; Raulin, F.; Rettberg, P.; Schmitz, N.; Sefton-Nash, E.; Sephton, M. A.; Shaheen, R.; Shuster, D. L.; Siljestrom, S.; Smith, C. L.; Steele, A.; Swindle, T. D.; ten Kate, I. L.; Tosca, N. J.; Usui, T.; Van Kranendonk, M. J.; Wadhwa, M.; Weiss, B. P.; Werner, S. C.; Westall, F.; Wheeler, R. M.; Zipfel, J.; Zorzano, M. P.

2018-04-01

Thorough characterization and evaluation of returned martian regolith and airfall samples are critical to understanding the potential health and engineering system hazards during future human exploration.

Protein-driven RNA nanostructured devices that function in vitro and control mammalian cell fate.

PubMed

Shibata, Tomonori; Fujita, Yoshihiko; Ohno, Hirohisa; Suzuki, Yuki; Hayashi, Karin; Komatsu, Kaoru R; Kawasaki, Shunsuke; Hidaka, Kumi; Yonehara, Shin; Sugiyama, Hiroshi; Endo, Masayuki; Saito, Hirohide

2017-09-14

Nucleic acid nanotechnology has great potential for future therapeutic applications. However, the construction of nanostructured devices that control cell fate by detecting and amplifying protein signals has remained a challenge. Here we design and build protein-driven RNA-nanostructured devices that actuate in vitro by RNA-binding-protein-inducible conformational change and regulate mammalian cell fate by RNA-protein interaction-mediated protein assembly. The conformation and function of the RNA nanostructures are dynamically controlled by RNA-binding protein signals. The protein-responsive RNA nanodevices are constructed inside cells using RNA-only delivery, which may provide a safe tool for building functional RNA-protein nanostructures. Moreover, the designed RNA scaffolds that control the assembly and oligomerization of apoptosis-regulatory proteins on a nanometre scale selectively kill target cells via specific RNA-protein interactions. These findings suggest that synthetic RNA nanodevices could function as molecular robots that detect signals and localize target proteins, induce RNA conformational changes, and programme mammalian cellular behaviour.Nucleic acid nanotechnology has great potential for future therapeutic applications. Here the authors build protein-driven RNA nanostructures that can function within mammalian cells and regulate the cell fate.

The Role of Sex in Memory Function: Considerations and Recommendations in the Context of Exercise.

PubMed

Loprinzi, Paul D; Frith, Emily

2018-05-31

There is evidence to suggest that biological sex plays a critical role in memory function, with sex differentially influencing memory type. In this review, we detail the current evidence evaluating sex-specific effects on various memory types. We also discuss potential mechanisms that explain these sex-specific effects, which include sex differences in neuroanatomy, neurochemical differences, biological differences, and cognitive and affect-related differences. Central to this review, we also highlight that, despite the established sex differences in memory, there is little work directly comparing whether males and females have a differential exercise-induced effect on memory function. As discussed herein, such a differential effect is plausible given the clear sex-specific effects on memory, exercise response, and molecular mediators of memory. We emphasize that future work should be carefully powered to detect sex differences. Future research should also examine these potential exercise-related sex-specific effects for various memory types and exercise intensities and modalities. This will help enhance our understanding of whether sex indeed moderates the effects of exercise and memory function, and as such, will improve our understanding of whether sex-specific, memory-enhancing interventions should be developed, implemented, and evaluated.

News media reporting on civil litigation and its influence on civil justice decision making.

PubMed

Robbennolt, Jennifer K; Studebaker, Christina A

2003-02-01

The news media have the potential to act as a powerful influence on the civil litigation system, influencing decision making in particular cases and on the system more generally as media reports influence the decision making of various participants in the system. This paper reviews the research that has examined the relationship between news media reporting and civil litigation and proposes a framework that integrates this work and provides guidance for future research efforts. Specifically, we discuss the nature of media reporting on civil litigation, perceptions of the civil litigation system held by the public and legal actors, and the potential influence of news reporting about civil litigation on the decision making of jurors, judges, civil litigants, and policymakers. Overall, the research suggests that news reporting of civil litigation presents a systematically distorted picture of civil litigation and that this reporting can influence perceptions and outcomes of civil litigation in various ways. However, there are many gaps in the existing research that need to be filled. The proposed organizational scheme helps to identify ways that future research can provide links between the findings of existing research and to identify ways in which this research can be extended to new areas.

Cosmological measurements with general relativistic galaxy correlations

DOE Office of Scientific and Technical Information (OSTI.GOV)

Raccanelli, Alvise; Montanari, Francesco; Durrer, Ruth

We investigate the cosmological dependence and the constraining power of large-scale galaxy correlations, including all redshift-distortions, wide-angle, lensing and gravitational potential effects on linear scales. We analyze the cosmological information present in the lensing convergence and in the gravitational potential terms describing the so-called ''relativistic effects'', and we find that, while smaller than the information contained in intrinsic galaxy clustering, it is not negligible. We investigate how neglecting them does bias cosmological measurements performed by future spectroscopic and photometric large-scale surveys such as SKA and Euclid. We perform a Fisher analysis using the CLASS code, modified to include scale-dependent galaxymore » bias and redshift-dependent magnification and evolution bias. Our results show that neglecting relativistic terms, especially lensing convergence, introduces an error in the forecasted precision in measuring cosmological parameters of the order of a few tens of percent, in particular when measuring the matter content of the Universe and primordial non-Gaussianity parameters. The analysis suggests a possible substantial systematic error in cosmological parameter constraints. Therefore, we argue that radial correlations and integrated relativistic terms need to be taken into account when forecasting the constraining power of future large-scale number counts of galaxy surveys.« less